Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutTanaa River Hydropower Scheme Reconnaissance Study 2009Knight Piesold CONSULTING Rev. No. Rev A RevB RevC RevO Golden Valley Electric Association Tanana River Hydropower Scheme Tanacross, Alaska Reconnaissance Study Date Final Report January 7, 2009 Prepared for Golden Valley Electric Association P.O. Box 71249 Fairbanks, Alaska 99207 Telephone: (907) 452-1151 Telefax: (907) 451-5657 Prepared by Knight Ph!sold and Co. 1580 Lincoln Street, Suite 1000 Denver, Colorado 80203 Telephone: (303) 629-8788 Telefax: (303) 629-8789 Project DV103-00209.01 Description Knight Piesold December 8, 2008 Issued for Internal Review John Dwver December 18, 2008 Issued for Review/Approval John Dwver December 22, 2008 Issued for Review/Approval John Dwver Januarv 7, 2009 Issued as Final John Dwver Client Paul Park Paul Park Paul Park Paul Park Knight Piesold CONSULTlNG Golden Valley Electric Association Tanana River Hydropower Scheme Tanacross, Alaska Reconnaissance Study Final Report Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv List of Appendices .......................................................................................................................... v Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ I 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Scope of Work ........................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Sources of Information .............................................................................................. 1-1 2.0 General Site Conditions ......................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Site Location .............................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Basin Description ....................................................................................................... 2-l 2.3 Climate ....................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.4 Geology ...................................................................................................................... 2-2 2.4.1 Little Gerstle River Site .............................................................................. 2-2 2.4.2 Cathedral Rapids Site .................................................................................. 2-2 3.0 llydrology and Hydraulics ..................................................................................................... 3-l 3.1 Hydrologic Analysis .................................................................................................. 3-1 4.0 Project Arrangement and Alternatives ................................................................................... 4-l 4.1 Little Gerstle River Alternative ................................................................................. 4-1 4.2 Cathedral Rapids Alternative ..................................................................................... 4-2 4.2.1 Weir ............................................................................................................. 4-2 4.2.2 Powerhouse Structure ................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.3 Turbine Types ............................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.4 Transmission Line ....................................................................................... 4-3 4.2.5 Electrical Equipment ................................................................................... 4-4 4.2.5.1 Single Line Diagram .................................................................... 4-4 DV1 03.00209.01 II January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 4.2.5.2 Electrical System Layout ............................................................. 4-5 4.2.6 Other Design Considerations ...................................................................... 4-5 5.0 Energy Generation Potential .................................................................................................. 5-I 6.0 Estimated Costs ...................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 General ....................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Basis for Construction Costs ...................................................................................... 6-1 7.0 Economic Evaluation ............................................................................................................. 7-1 7. I General ....................................................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 Annual Costs .............................................................................................................. 7 -I 7.3 Cost-Benefit Evaluation ............................................................................................. 7-1 7.4 Economic Analysis Results ........................................................................................ 7-2 8.0 Critical Issues ......................................................................................................................... 8-1 9.0 Conclusions and Recommendations ...................................................................................... 9-1 9.1 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 9-1 9.2 Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 9-1 I 0.0 Certification ....................................................................................................................... I 0-1 11.0 References .......................................................................................................................... Il-l DV103.00209.01 Ill January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING List of Figures Figure Title 2.1 Project Location 3.1 Tanana River near Tanacross -Mean Monthly Streamflow 3.2 Tanana River near Tanacross -Flow Duration Curve 4.1 Little Gerstle River Site Conceptual Layout 4.2 Cathedral Rapids Site-Conceptual Layout 4.3 Tanana River Hydropower Project-Weir and Powerhouse Conceptual Layout Plan 4.4 Tanana River Hydropower Project -Weir and Powerhouse Conceptual Layout- Sections 4.5 Tanana River Hydropower Project Single-Line Diagram 5.1 Average Monthly Power Output DV103.00209 01 IV January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING List of Appendices Appendix Title A Cost Estimate B Economic Analysis C Photos DV1 03.00209.01 v January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING Golden Valley Electric Association Tanana River Hydropower Scheme Tanacross, Alaska Reconnaissance Study Final Report Executive Summary This report presents a reconnaissance-level investigation of two alternative sites for the construction of a small run-of-river hydropower facility on the Tanana River between Fairbanks and the Canadian border. The two sites are: (I) the Little Gerstle River site, located about 33 miles southeast of Delta Junction; and (2) the Cathedral Rapids site, which is about 50 miles southeast of the first site. The report includes a description of the physical characteristics of the two sites and an analysis of the two alternatives. A I so included are a conceptual project layout, an estimate of power generation, the estimated conceptual costs, and an economic analysis of the preferred alternative. The first phase of the study included a fatal flaw analysis to investigate if the project is technically feasible and if there are significant impediments to the project. This phase involved a site visit, a conceptual geologic and geotechnical assessment of the proposed project sites, evaluation of flow and head available for power generation and estimation of the potential turbine and generator capacity. The fatal flaw analysis did not identify technical fatal flaws that would preclude development of hydropower at either location; however, a hydropower facility at the Little Gerstle River site would be costly to permit and construct, and would have potentially significant environmental issues. The Cathedral Rapids site appears to be more suitable for a hydropower facility; however, this site also has economic issues, as well as environmental concerns that could be raised during the permitting and public review process. Results of the fatal flaw analysis were summarized in a memo issued by Knight Piesold in November 2008 (Knight Piesold, 2008). The Little Gerstle River alternative consists of a 40-to 50-foot high dam and powerhouse on the Tanana River about 2 miles downstream from the confluence of the Tanana and Little Gerstle Rivers. Development of a hydropower facility at this site does not appear to be economically or environmentally feasible due to the site conditions and potential environmental impacts. DV103.00209.01 ES-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING The Cathedral Rapids alternative is a low-head weir and integrated powerhouse located just upstream from the Cathedral Rapids area on the Tanana River, about 11 miles west of the town of Tanacross. The mean monthly flow at this location varies from 2,270 cfs (cubic feet per second) in March to 22,233 cfs in July. The powerhouse would include four pit turbines and generators, each having a design flow of 3,750 cfs (106m3/sec), a design head of 15 feet (4.57 meters [m]), and an installed capacity of 4,200 kilowatt-hours (kWh), for a total installed capacity of 16,800 kilowatts (kW). Using 37 years of daily flow data from a nearby USGS gaging station, the average annual energy production for this facility is estimated to be 52.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh). Based on the 37-year period of record, energy could be produced on 321 days during an average year at this facility. The period with the lowest average flows (and therefore most likely to be non-producing) is from mid-February through the end of March. The estimated cost of the Cathedral Rapids alternative is 133 million dollars, considered accurate to within plus or minus 30 percent. The project would provide emissions-free power with relatively low operation and maintenance requirements. Assuming an installed capacity of 16.8 megawatts (MW), an avoided cost rate of $0.13/kWh escalated at 2 percent per year, a 30-year operating period, and a discount rate of 6 percent, the project would have a negative cash flow for the first 20 years after startup, a cost benefit ratio of 0.86, and a present net worth of benefits of minus $19,590,000. Thus, the project is not economically feasible under these assumptions. The economic feasibility of hydropower at this site depends on the weir height, turbine design flow, and required transmission line length, as well as on the value of the energy produced and the bond discount rate. The project might be economically feasible if the weir height and installed capacity were increased and the energy was sold to the Alaska Power and Telephone Company for use in the surrounding area, which would reduce the transmission line cost. Further investigation would be required to evaluate the economics ofthese options. If GVEA decides to further investigate a hydropower project at the Cathedral Rapids site, recommendations include the following: • Conduct further studies to determine if the economics can be improved by increasing the weir height and/or the design flow • Contact Alaska Power and Telephone Company to evaluate their interest in purchasing power from a potential hydropower facility at Cathedral Rapids so that transmission costs could be reduced DV103.00209.01 ES-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING • Perform detailed topographic mapping and river channel surveys at the site to define the site topography, including the channel geometry and the inundation area for the weir and reservoir • Conduct geotechnical field investigations to determine the depth to bedrock, seismic and geologic conditions at the site, and availability of construction materials in the vicinity ofthe site • Conduct an investigation of fisheries resources to determine the requirements for bypass flows • Investigate the potential effects of sediment loading on the weir, the impoundment and the turbines • Identify the specific requirements for permlttmg and licensing of the proposed facility. FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) and other appropriate regulatory agencies and community stakeholders should be contacted early in the planning process to identify and address potential environmental and safety concerns. DV103.00209.01 ES-3 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING Golden Valley Electric Association Tanana River Hydropower Scheme Tanacross, Alaska Reconnaissance Study Final Report 1.0 Introduction Knight Piesold and Co. (Knight Piesold) was retained by Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA) to investigate the potential for construction of a run-of-river hydropower facility at two alternative sites on the Tanana River southeast of Fairbanks, Alaska. The two sites were the Little Gerstle River site and the Cathedral Rapids site. 1. 1 Scope of Work The first phase of the study was a fatal flaw analysis to determine if the project is technically feasible and if there are any significant impediments to the project. This phase involved a site visit, conceptual geologic and geotechnical assessment of the proposed project site, evaluation of flow and head available for power generation and estimation of the potential turbine and generator capacity. The fatal flaw analysis did not identify technical fatal flaws that would preclude development of hydropower at either of the two possible locations; however, the Cathedral Rapids site appears to be a more suitable location based on preliminary considerations of construction costs, permitting costs, and potential environmental issues. Results of the fatal flaw analysis were summarized in a memo issued by Knight Piesold in November 2008 (Knight Piesold, 2008). The second phase, presented in this report, includes a more detailed description of the two sites based on available information and an analysis of the alternatives. Also included for the preferred alternative are development of a conceptual project layout; an estimate of power generation; the estimated conceptual costs; and an economic analysis. 1.2 Sources of Information Information used during the study included survey data, information on energy economics, and facility design criteria received from GVEA; information on the physical setting collected by Knight Piesold staff during a site visit; hydrologic data and topographic maps from the United States Geological Survey (USGS); site imagery from Google Earth software; geologic reports DV103.00209.01 1-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING from the Geophysical Institute at University of Alaska Fairbanks; and fisheries information from the State of Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Habitat, Fairbanks, Alaska. DV103.00209.01 1-2 January 7. 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 2.0 General Site Conditions 2. 1 Site Location The initial site identified by GVEA for the proposed hydropower project on the Tanana River is located about two miles downstream of its confluence with the Little Gerstle River. In the grant application, GVEA proposed a 50-foot high dam and power plant at this location. Subsequently, GVEA proposed an alternate site on the Tanana River near Cathedral Rapids, which is about 50 miles further southeast from the original site, and about II miles west of Tanacross. The locations of the two alternative sites are shown on Figure 2.1. 2.2 Basin Description The Tanana River is a tributary of the Yukon River. Its drainage basin area above the gaging station near Tanacross is 8,550 square miles and includes a portion of the northern slopes and foothills of the Wrangell Mountains. Its headwaters are located at the confluence of the Chisana and Nabesna Rivers just north of Northway in eastern Alaska. It flows northwest from near the border with the Yukon Territory in a wide valley north of the Alaska Range, roughly paralleled by the Alaska Highway (State Highway 2). In central Alaska, it emerges into a lowland marsh region known as the Tanana Valley and passes to the south of the city of Fairbanks. It is the largest populated watershed in interior Alaska. In the marsh regions it is joined by several large tributaries, including the Nenana River (near the city of Nenana) and the Kantishna River. It empties into the Yukon approximately 70 miles downriver from the village of Manley Hot Springs, near the town of Tanana. Historically, the date when the ice broke on the Tanana River marked the beginning of spring, as well as the transportation season in Alaska, before the advent of paved roads, trains, and planes. This event is still celebrated at the Nenana Ice Classic, a game held each year in Nenana to guess the date when the ice will break. During the history of the Ice Classic, the earliest calendar date when the ice broke was April 20 in both 1940 and 1998; the latest date was May 20, 1964. 2.3 Climate The average annual precipitation in the Tanana River watershed ranges from over 50 inches in the high mountains of the Alaska Range, to 11.05 inches at Tanacross, which has an average annual snowfall of 33 inches. The climate of Tanacross is typical of interior Alaska, with seasonal temperature extremes that can range from -70°F in mid-winter to as high as +96°F in DV103.00209.01 2-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING the summer. Average January temperatures range from -26°F to -5°F. Average July temperatures range from +44°F to +72°F. 2.4 Geology The geology of the proposed hydropower sites is characterized by high glaciated terrain in the Alaska Range and gentle rolling hills to the north. The northwest flowing Tanana River meanders on the north side of the Alaska Highway between granitic outcrops and glacial moraines. Within the site region, several peaks rise to more then 5,400 feet asl (above sea level). The proposed sites were heavily glaciated during the Pleistocene, and deposits of this age are recognized in the area. Generally, glacial deposits are represented as terminal moraines at the end of valleys and form broad hummocky zones of low relief. Bedrock in the area consists mainly of fine-grained biotite and biotite-hornblende granodiorite of Mesozoic age. Surficial deposits between the granodiorite outcrops consist of alluvial and colluvial deposits up to approximately 60 feet thick. Permafrost is common in the surficial alluvial and colluvial deposits in the site area. However, permafrost is most common in the finer-grained sediment deposits. 2.4.1 Little Gerstle River Site The general feeling during the site reconnaissance was that constructing a 40 to 50-foot high dam at this location would not be practical, since it would back up water for a considerable distance (including flooding over the Alaska Highway), interrupt boating, and likely require a fish migration facility. At this proposed hydropower site, the Tanana River flows as a braided stream through a 3i4-mile wide reach bounded by prominent rock ridges. The east and west boundaries are marked by granodiorite rock outcrops. Surficial deposits consist of glacial fluvial and floodplain gravelly alluvial materials. The river deposits are likely tens of feet thick, which would require extensive and costly excavation and foundation treatment for seepage reduction and control. 2.4.2 Cathedral Rapids Site This appeared to be a more technically desirable hydropower site than the original site selected by GVEA. The most viable location for a hydropower facility at this site appears to be near the bend in the river (at the east end of Cathedral Rapids) where it flows around an "island" during high discharges. The "island" appears to have been formed by a shift in the river channel, DV103.00209.01 2-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING leaving an old oxbow-like channel around the south side of the island with the main channel to the north side. The island is likely a granodiorite knob. The soils exposed on the south river bank are predominately silts. Further to the south the topography rises at a moderate slope that is characteristic of a series of coalescing alluvial fans developed by the streams carrying materials from the mountains, which form the south ridge of the stream valley. Coalescing fans are deposited mainly by flowing water and debris flows. The unit consists of unsaturated, poorly stratified, poorly to well-sorted, clast-supported pebbly cobbles within a silty sand matrix. These materials are likely highly permeable, and thus seepage through them would need to be considered if a dam is proposed at the site. The north side of the proposed Cathedral Rapids site is marked by granodiorite rock outcrops, colluvium, and flood plain alluvium. Surficial deposits at the south side of the site are formed by coalescing fans and glacial till deposits. The maximum thickness of these deposits is estimated at 60 to 90 feet. Colluvium units on the north side of the river form steep slopes that may contain bouldery debris flow deposits. The unit generally consists of poorly stratified, poorly sorted, clast-supported, cobbly boulder gravels, deposited mainly by mass-wasting processes. Exposed thickness is approximately 15 feet with an estimated maximum thickness of 60 feet. This unit is potentially subject to numerous geologic hazards, including rock avalanches, debris flows, and unstable talus slopes. A recent report released by the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (Carver, Bemis et al, 2008) indicates that there is an active fault zone between Dot Lake and Delta Junction, about 18 miles northwest of the Cathedral Rapids site. The implications of this fault zone for a proposed facility at Cathedral Rapids should be addressed during future studies. A few rock outcrops appear along the north side of the river in the area called Cathedral Bluffs. For this study, a suitable foundation for a low weir was assumed to be available at a reasonable depth at this site. This assumption should be confirmed by site-specific drilling and geotechnical analysis during future studies. A detailed discussion of the foundation treatment and river diversion required for this project is beyond the scope of this report, and should be addressed during Feasibility Studies and Preliminary Design. DV103.00209.01 2-3 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 3.0 Hydrology and Hydraulics 3. 1 Hydrologic Analysis The stream gaging station nearest to the alternative proposed project site is located on the Tanana River, between Cathedral Rapids Creek No. 1 and No. 2. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) monitored the flows at this station (No. 15476000) from February 17, 1953 through September 30, 1990. The mean monthly flows for this station are shown in the table below, and on Figure 3.1. The mean flow for the period from May through October is 13,565 cfs. The mean monthly flow varies from a low of 2,270 cfs in March to a high of 22,233 cfs in July. The peak recorded flow for the period of record was 49,100 cfs, which occurred on July 25, 1988. The flow pattern is typical for interior Alaska, with high flows from May through October, and low flows from November through April. The 8,550 square mile drainage area includes a number of glaciers in the Wrangell Mountains, and therefore the summer flows tend to be sustained at a fairly high rate. Conversely, most of the winter precipitation falls as snow, and winter flows can become very low. Tanana River Station No. 15476000 Mean Monthly Flow, cfs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 2,468 2,337 2,270 2,714 8,296 14,780 22,233 20,744 10,428 4,903 3,095 2,628 Max 3,200 3,100 3,100 16,200 21,000 38,600 47,400 35,500 27,000 11,200 5,380 3,800 Min 1,700 1,600 1,400 1,800 2,000 5,940 10,200 6,700 4,850 2,100 2,100 1,800 Mean daily flow records for the Tanana River gaging station 155476000 were downloaded from the USGS web site, and used to develop the flow-duration curve shown in Figure 3.2. The flow- duration curve is a cumulative-frequency curve that shows the percentage of time that specified discharge values are met or exceeded during a given period. The practical power generation period was assumed to be during the months from May through October. Therefore, the flow-duration curve was developed for only those months. As shown in the table above, the flows from November through April are significantly lower. Analysis of mean daily flows for the period of record (1953-1990) indicates that in an average year, power could be generated during 321 days. The typical period of non-production due to low flow conditions is from February 15 to March 31. DV103.00209.01 3-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING As a starting point, normal flows in the 25-percent exceedance range are typically selected for analysis of the project installed capacity and energy output. For the flow-duration curve shown on Figure 3.2, the 25-percent exceedance flow is about 20,000 cfs. Initially, GVEA assumed design flows varying from 2,500 to 15,000 cfs for the Alternative Energy Grant Proposal for this project. This design flow would leave significant flow in the river. The flow records indicate that it might be possible to increase the design flow to about 20,000 cfs. Depending on the alternative design selected for the hydropower facility, it may be possible to increase the design flow and still leave sufficient water in the river for boating and fish. Further studies would be required to confirm the final design flow for the hydropower facility. Peak flows for selected return periods were estimated by applying the Type-1 Extremal (Gumbel) distribution to the annual peak flows for the period of record. The results of this analysis are summarized in the table below. The I 00-year peak flow estimate ( 45,890 cfs) was used to develop a conceptual design and preliminary cost estimate for the weir and powerhouse. A weir and hydropower facility at this location may be required to be designed for the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). Calculating the PMF was beyond the scope of this study. Tanana River near Tanacross, Alaska Peak Flows for Selected Return Periods Return 2-yr 5-yr 10-yr 50-yr 100-yr 500-yr Period Peak Flow 30,502 34,621 37,349 43,352 45,890 51,754 (cfs) DV103.00209.01 3-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 4.0 Project Arrangement and Alternatives Based on the flow data available from the USGS and survey information provided by GVEA on the river gradient, it appears that viable alternatives for hydropower generation on the Tanana River are limited. PDC Engineers (PDC Engineers, 2008) surveyed two points along the Tanana River near Cathedral Rapids. Over a surveyed distance of 2.1 miles, the elevation difference was 6.13 feet, which gives a gradient of 0.06 percent. This very flat gradient makes it impractical to develop a run-of-river hydro facility with a diversion weir and penstock on this stretch of the river. Therefore, two alternatives using a dam or weir with an integrated powerhouse were considered in this study and are described in the following sections. Their locations are shown on Figure 2.1. 4. 1 Little Gerstle River Alternative The initial alternative proposed by GVEA is located on the Tanana River about 2 miles downstream from its confluence with the Little Gerstle River (see Figure 4.1 ). This alternative consists of a storage dam and a 50 MW hydropower facility. GVEA's estimate of power generation was based on a minimum head of 50 feet and flow rate from 2,500 to 15,000 cfs. The annual power output was estimated to be 193,982 megawatt-hours (MWh) based on 8 months at 8.3 MW and 4 months at 50 MW output. This estimate implies that the dam would be at least 50 feet high. As shown on the USGS Mt. Hayes (D-2) Quadrangle, the proposed dam site would be located in Section 34, T 12 S, R 15 E (see Figure 4.1 ). The contour interval on the available topographic map is I 00 feet, which makes it difficult to estimate the area that would be inundated by a 50 foot high dam at this site. As indicated by available mapping, the reservoir would likely inundate a very large area extending several miles upstream, including the Alaska Highway, Black Lake, Lake George and Moosehead Lake. Another significant issue is the large amount of sediment carried by the Tanana River at this site. It appears that the primary source of sediment is the Johnson River, which enters the Tanana River about 9 miles upstream of the site. Sediment would likely accumulate rapidly in the reservoir and cause excessive wear on the turbine runners. Obtaining a permit to construct a dam at this site would be time consuming and very costly. Construction of the dam also would be very expensive due to its size and the extensive foundation excavation and treatment that would likely be required. For these reasons, plus the DV103.00209.01 4-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CON8ULTING environmental concerns associated with fish habitat, this does not appear to be a very practical or economical site for construction of a dam and hydropower facility. 4.2 Cathedral Rapids Alternative The second alternative is located just upstream from Cathedral Rapids on the Tanana River, about 11 miles west of Tanacross (see Figure 4.2). A hydropower facility at this site would consist of a low-head concrete weir across the Tanana River with the hydropower facility integrated into the weir. The key components of this alternative are described in the following sections. 4.2.1 Weir The weir would experience a relatively large head range and a very large potential flow variation. Based on estimates of the channel cross-section at this location, the weir would need to be a minimum of 25.0 feet above the river bed at its deepest point to maintain a head differential of about 15.0 feet on the turbines at a design flow of 15,000 cfs. The flow and head characteristics at the site indicate the use of bulb, "pit'' or S-type turbines incorporated into the weir. For a design flow of about 15,000 cfs (as assumed by GVEA) and a net head of about 15 feet, the installed capacity would be about 16.8 MW. The hydropower facility would consist of four 4.2 MW turbine and generator units. As an alternative, a net head of 15 feet and a design flow of 20,000 cfs would provide a total installed capacity of about 22.4 MW. A third possible alternative would have a design flow of 20,000 cfs, a net head of about 25 feet, and a higher weir, for a potential installed capacity of about 36.0 MW. Evaluation of the last two alternatives would require more detailed study to determine their technical and economic feasibility. The maximum weir height is uncertain due to the lack of adequate topographic mapping of the area. The existing USGS Tanacross (B-6) Quadrangle, dated 1949, has a contour interval of I 00 feet, with some 50 foot contours. Based on this coarse topography, it appears the weir height would need to be less than about 50 feet to avoid inundating the Alaska Highway. More detailed topographic data would be needed to establish the maximum potential height of the weir at this site. The weir might need to include a portage or bypass channel for boats, and a fish ladder may be required for fish migration. The weir and hydropower facility would be located at or just upstream of the island as shown in Figure 4.2. DV1 03 00209.01 4-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 4.2.2 Powerhouse Structure The powerhouse would be a semi-indoor reinforced concrete structure with roof hatches for access to install and maintain the turbines and generators. A permanent crane would not be included in the structure. The water intake would include gates for emergency shutdown of the turbines. Stoplog slots would be included on the intake and draft tube to dewater the turbine to perform maintenance. Trashracks would be included on the intake to prevent debris from entering the waterway and damaging the turbines. The conceptual plan view and cross-sections of the weir and powerhouse are shown in Figures 4.3 and 4.4. 4.2.3 Turbine Types This site is characterized as low-head, high-flow as far as the turbines are concerned. These working conditions are especially suited for propeller-type turbines. These turbines are available in vertical, inclined and horizontal shaft alignments and configurations designated by the names vertical shaft, tube, bulb, and pit types. For the site on the Tanana River, the preferred configuration would be the horizontal-axis, adjustable-blade pit type turbine, due to its high efficiency across the expected wide range of flows. This type of turbine has gained popularity over recent decades for its compact construction, ease of maintenance and efficient performance. The pit turbine considered for this site has three elements in the power train: an adjustable-blade Kaplan turbine, a speed increaser and a high-speed synchronous generator. These are arranged on a horizontal axis within the water passage, with access to the generator and speed increaser from above. 4.2.4 Transmission Line An issue associated with a hydropower facility at this site is the cost to construct 85 miles of transmission line to connect to GVEA's existing high voltage transmission system in Delta Junction. As indicated by GVEA in the grant application, the small nearby communities of Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tanacross, Tok and other connected villages could be served through a power purchase agreement between GVEA and Alaska Power and Telephone. This later alternative for power transmission and usage would likely be the most economical approach for this project. DV103.00209.01 4-3 January 7, 2009 Rev O·Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 4.2.5 Electrical Equipment The electrical system would be designed to connect the four generators to the GVEA 138 kilovolt (kV) distribution line. For the purpose of the electrical system design, the following assumptions were used: • Generators designed to operate at 13.8kV. • Electrical equipment housed in the generation building, no separate control needed. • Switch yard contains a 13.8 to 138kV step-up transformer and 138k V breaker switch. • Line protection required for the 138kV line. • Point of interconnection is the bushings of the 138kV potential transformers; GVEA to provide the dead end structure, lightening arrestors and disconnect switches. • GVEA to provide any Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) equipment required. The construction cost estimate does not include GVEA SCADA allowances. 4.2.5. 1 Single Line Diagram A preliminary single-line diagram for the proposed hydropower facility is shown on Figure 4.5. Each generator would have an SEL-300G providing primary protection consisting of over and under voltage elements, over and under frequency elements, differential elements, over-current elements and synch check. Backup protection would be provided by an SEL-351 relay that would provide over and under voltage elements, over and under frequency elements, over- current elements and synch check. Each generator would be high resistance grounded to protect the generators from damaging ground fault currents. The main breaker would have an SEL-351 to provide over-current protection with some back up protection for voltage and frequency disturbances. Synch-check would also be used on this relay to ensure the utility cannot be closed into the generators. The main 13.8kV bus would also be protected with an SEL-587Z high impedance bus differential relay for high speed protection against bus faults. The step-up transformer would be a three-winding, wye-delta-wye, transformer that would provide a ground source for both the utility and the generation facility. The facility side of the transformer would be resistance-grounded to 200A for selective clearing of ground faults. The utility side would be solidly grounded unless directed otherwise by the utility. The transformer DV1 03.00209.01 4-4 January 7, 2009 Rev O·Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING would be protected by an SEL-587 transformer differential relay with back-up protection provided by an SEL-551 C relay. Line protection for the 138kV transmission line would be provided by an SEL-421 distance relay. Some back-up protection would be provided by the SEL-551 C relay as well. All of the relays would be connected to an SEL-2032 communications processor for plant monitoring and control. No SCADA control from the utility is shown. Trip and close terminals for the main breaker would be made available to the utility. A motor control center is included to provide station service for the facility. The station service loads include the hydraulic units for the generators, power for station lights, HVAC, control equipment, and miscellaneous motor loads that could be expected in such a facility. 4.2.5.2 Electrical System Layout The 15kV switchgear and 480 volt (V) station service equipment would be located in a dedicated electrical room in the powerhouse. The main breaker in the 15kV gear would be connected to the step-up transformer via underground cables. The station service transformer would be located in the same yard. This yard would be on the opposite side of the wall from the electrical room to reduce cable lengths. 4.2.6 Other Design Considerations Hydropower facilities in cold climates sometimes include design features to prevent ice formation on critical components and to withstand spring season ice-out. For example, bubbler pipes and/or heaters can be used to prevent ice formation at the turbine intakes; trashracks can be used to prevent floating ice from entering the intakes; and log booms can be installed upstream of the weir trap floating ice. Specific design features to prevent ice formation and to withstand ice-out should be included in the Feasibility Study and Preliminary Design. The effects of sediment loading on impoundment storage capacity and on the turbine runners at the Cathedral Rapids site should be addressed in future studies. A sampling program to characterize suspended sediment and bedload in the river may be required. A detailed analysis ofthe effects of sediment loading is beyond the scope ofthis report. DV103.00209.01 4-5 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold C:ONSULTING 5.0 Energy Generation Potential The concept for the hydropower facility includes a powerhouse integrated into a low-head weir located east of Cathedral Rapids upstream of an island in the river. The powerhouse would include four pit turbines and generators, each having a design flow of 3,750 cfs, a design head of 15 feet, and an installed capacity of 4,200 k W, for a total installed capacity of 16,800 k W. The mean daily flow data for the entire period of record (1953-1990) was used in the energy generation calculations. River flows from 20 to 110 percent ofthe design flow (16,500 cfs) were used to calculate the average annual energy production, which is estimated to be 52.5 GWh. According to data from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, anadromous fish species (coho and chum salmon) are present in the vicinity of Cathedral Rapids, and therefore ten percent of the design flow ( 1,500 cfs) was subtracted from all mean daily flows to allow for diversion from the turbine intakes for a fish bypass facility. This value was estimated based on experience with other projects. Determination of the required flow values for a fish bypass facility is beyond the scope of this study. It is possible that a flow value greater than I ,500 cfs would be required, which could adversely effect potential energy production. A more accurate flow value would need to be determined during future studies in consultation with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and other appropriate stakeholders. Efficiency of a Kaplan turbine is above 90 percent but is not constant, gradually rising and then falling moderately as the flow increases. The Kaplan operating range can be from II 0 percent of design flow down to about 20 percent of design flow. The efficiency of the speed increaser would be fairly constant at around 98.5 percent. The efficiency of the generator is about 98 percent at full design flow, but drops to around 94.5 percent at 20 percent of full load. The combined efficiency is estimated to be 89.3 percent from 60 percent to I 00 percent of design flow. At 20 percent flow the combined efficiency is estimated to be 78.2 percent. Based on these values, an overall average efficiency of 86 percent was assumed for the energy generation calculations. A constant head of 15 feet was assumed since topographic data were unavailable to calculate the headwater and tailwater elevations in the river channel at various flows. The crest of the weir was assumed to be approximately 15 feet above the tailwater elevation at the design flow. The design head was assumed to remain relatively constant throughout the range of flows since both the headwater and tailwater elevations would increase when the flow increases. In addition, a design head of 15 feet and a design flow of 20,000 cfs, and a design head of 25 feet and a design DV1 03.00209.01 5-1 January 7. 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING flow of 20,000 cfs, were analyzed to investigate the annual energy production for potentially larger installed capacities. The results of the annual energy production analyses are summarized in the table below, and the average monthly power output is shown in Figure 5.1. Design Head (ft) 15 15 25 Notes: Tanana River Hydropower Study Cathedral Rapids Site Annual Energy Production Summary(!) Design Flow Installed lnstream Reserve (cfs) Capacity Flow (cfs) (MW) 15,000 16.8 1,500 20,000 22.4 1,500 20,000 36.0 1,500 Annual Energy Production (GWh) 52.5 57.1 94.4 I) The average annual energy production period is 321 days, based on the period of record from 1953 to 1990. The most likely period for non-production due to low flow conditions is from February 15 to March 31. 2) Energy production is based on mean daily flows for the period of record, minus I ,500 cfs for fisheries bypass flow requirements. 3) Transformer efficiency is assumed to be 99.5 %. 4) Unscheduled outages are assumed to be 3 %. DV103.00209.01 5-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 6.0 Estimated Costs 6.1 General An opinion of probable project costs for the Cathedral Rapids Alternative was developed for the proposed hydropower installation based on November 2008 dollars. The opinion of probable project costs includes construction costs, contingency, engineering, permitting, and legal fees. Estimated project costs are discussed below and shown in Appendix A. 6.2 Basis for Construction Costs Construction costs were estimated for each of the project components using cost data from available guidelines, manuals, previous projects, and preliminary quotes from vendors. Where necessary, estimated costs were escalated to the third quarter of 2008 using escalation rates published by the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR, 2002) and Corps of Engineers. Estimated construction costs were developed for each ofthe following project components: Mobilization and demobilization • Access roads Powerhouse and ancillary facilities • Weir, including temporary river diversion and earthwork • Power generation package (turbines, speed increasers, generators, governors, controls, switchgear and hydraulic pressure unit, transformer, draft tube gate and installation) Switchyard • Transmission line • Fish passage The costs for mobilization and demobilization were estimated as a percentage of the total construction costs. Costs for the powerhouse, weir and apron construction, temporary river diversion, and earthwork were based on a conceptual design using available guidelines and data from previous projects. Preliminary dimensions and potential site conditions were estimated from available topographic and geotechnical information. The foundation of the weir was assumed to extend about 15 feet into the river bed. Costs for the turbines, generators, hydraulic DV103.00209.01 6-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING pressure units (HPUs), controls and switchgear are based on a budgetary quote from Andritz VA Tech Hydro Canada, Inc. Switchyard electrical costs were based on a budgetary quote from NEI Electric Power Engineering, Inc. of Arvada, Colorado. Transmission line costs were based on information from GVEA. Fish passage construction costs were from a report by INEEL, 2003, which estimates these costs as a function of plant capacity based on data from other hydropower projects. The total estimated construction cost was calculated by adding 25 percent for contingency. The contingency allowance covers the cost of unexpected and unlisted items that would normally be included in a more detailed estimate. The contingency also allows for possible price increases due to unforeseen circumstances. The overall project cost was established by adding engineering, permitting, and legal fees. These fees were estimated to be: • Engineering at 15 percent of total construction cost with contingency • Permitting at 4 percent oftotal construction cost with contingency • Legal at 4 percent of total construction cost with contingency Engineering costs include the feasibility study, preliminary and final design, procurement, construction management, and administration. Estimated construction costs and the total project cost are shown in Appendix A. The total project cost estimate is $133,259,000, which should be considered accurate to within plus or minus 30 percent. DV103.00209.01 6-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 7.0 Economic Evaluation 7.1 General An economic evaluation was completed for the Cathedral Rapids Alternative, including annual costs, annual revenues, benefit/cost ratio, net present value of costs and revenues, present worth of net benefits and accumulated net cash flow. The economic analysis was based on energy generation using a net head of 15 feet, a design flow of 15,000 cfs, and the estimated costs from Appendix A. 7.2 Annual Costs Project annual costs were divided into two components: annual debt service and annual operation and maintenance (O&M) cost. Annual debt service provides payment of interest and principal over the bond repayment period. Fixed operation and maintenance costs were estimated to be $0.0035/kWh [INEEL, 2003], or $183,750 for the first year of operation. Operation and maintenance costs were escalated at an annual rate of 2 percent over the life of the project to account for increased costs associated with aging machinery. This study assumes that Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA) would operate and maintain the hydropower facilities, and that maintenance would occur during the off- season. 7.3 Cost-Benefit Evaluation An economic analysis was completed for the selected alternative assuming a 30-year project life, a discount rate of 6 percent, and a bond repayment term of 30 years. Energy production was assumed to begin in 20 I I. Project permitting, planning, engineering and construction were assumed to consume about two years from early 2009 through 20 I 0. Annual revenue was calculated by multiplying GVEA's avoided cost rate by the average annual energy production. The GVEA avoided cost rate was estimated to be $0.13/k Wh in 2008, escalated at 2 percent annually over the 30-year life of the project. Several analyses were performed to determine the economic feasibility of the project. The first analysis calculated the benefit-to-cost ratio for an installed capacity of 16.8 MW, assuming an avoided cost rate of $0.13/k Wh escalated at 2 percent per year and a 6 percent discount rate. The second analysis assumed the same avoided cost rate and a 4 percent discount rate. A third DV103.00209.01 7-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING analysis determined the minimum avoided cost rate required to produce a completely positive cash flow for the entire period assuming a 6 percent discount rate. 7.4 Economic Analysis Results The table below summarizes the results of the economic analysis. For an operating life of 30 years and a discount rate of 6 percent, the project is not economically feasible. For a discount rate of 4 percent, the project is economically feasible if a positive net cash flow that begins 9 years after startup is acceptable. The cash flow for the project is positive during the first year if the avoided cost rate is $0.188 per kWh. Details of the economic analysis are included in Appendix B. Tanana River Hydropower Study Cathedral Rapids Site Economic Analysis Results for 30 Years of Operation Installed Average Initial Discount Benefit Present Cash Capacity Annual Avoided Rate Cost Worth of Net Flow Years of (MW) Energy Cost (%) Ratio Benefits Negative (GWh) ($/kWh) ($) Cash Flow 16.8 52.5 0.13 6 0.86 -19,590,000 Negative 20 16.8 52.5 0.13 4 1.10 13,354,000 Negative 8 16.8 52.5 0.188 6 1.24 32,439,000 Positive 0 DV103.00209.01 7-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold C:ON8ULTING 8.0 Critical Issues The following critical issues for the Cathedral Rapids alternative were identified during this study. These issues could have a significant impact on the design and/or the economic feasibility ofthe project. • The economic feasibility of hydropower at this site depends on the weir height, turbine design flow, and required transmission line length, as well as on the value of the energy produced and the bond discount rate. The project might be economically feasible if the weir height and installed capacity were increased and the energy was sold to the Alaska Power and Telephone Company for use in the surrounding area, which would reduce the transmission line cost. Further investigation would be required to evaluate the economics of these options. • More accurate topographic data is required for the entire site, including the river channel, to determine the dimensions and design of the weir and powerhouse, the area of inundation, and the design of the required river diversion. • A site-specific geotechnical field investigation is needed to determine the depth to bedrock for construction of the weir, the foundation treatment for the weir and powerhouse, dewatering requirements, design of the river diversion, seismic and geologic conditions at the site, and the availability of construction materials in the vicinity. • An accurate determination of fish bypass flow requirements is required since anadromous fish species (coho and chum salmon) are present in the river at the site. The fish bypass requirements will affect the potential for energy generation and hence the economic feasibility of the project. • The effects of sediment loading on impoundment storage capacity and on the turbine runners at the Cathedral Rapids site should be addressed. This issue affects the turbine design as well as possible requirements for flushing or otherwise removing sediment from the impoundment. • Specific requirements for permitting and licensing of the proposed facility need to be identified. FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) and other appropriate regulatory agencies and community stakeholders should be contacted early in the planning process to identify and address any potential environmental or safety concerns. DV103.00209.01 8-1 January 7. 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc Knight Piesold CONSULTING 9.0 Conclusions and Recommendations 9.1 Conclusions The following conclusions are based on the reconnaissance level studies described in this report: • Development of a hydropower facility at the initially proposed Little Gerstle River site does not appear to be economically or environmentally feasible due to the site conditions and potential environmental impacts. Construction of a 50-foot high dam at this site would be technically challenging and costly due to the depth of sediments likely in the river channel. The large amount of coarse sediment in the river water would probably make operation of the turbines problematic and costly. The area inundated by construction of a 50-foot high dam at this location would be relatively large. • Development of a hydropower facility at the alternative Cathedral Rapids site appears to be technically feasible. The estimated cost of the project is $133,259,000, considered accurate to within plus or minus 30 percent. Assuming an installed capacity of 16.8 MW, an avoided cost rate of $0.13/k Wh escalated at 2 percent per year, a 30-year operating period, and a discount rate of 6 percent, the project would have a negative net cash flow for the first 20 years after startup, and a cost benefit ratio of 0.86. The present worth of net benefits would be -$19,590,000. Thus, the project would not be economically feasible under these assumptions. • The economic feasibility of hydropower at the Cathedral Rapids site depends on the weir height, turbine design flow and required transmission line length, as well as on the value of the energy produced and the bond discount rate. The project might be economically feasible if the weir height and installed capacity were increased and the energy was sold to the Alaska Power and Telephone Company for use in the surrounding area, which would reduce the transmission line cost. Further investigation would be required to evaluate the economics of these options. A more accurate determination of fish bypass flow requirements would be required for either alternative, since anadromous fish species (coho and chum salmon) are present in the river at both sites. • Small hydropower projects are currently eligible for federal Production Tax Credits (PTCs) of $0.01/kWh during the first ten years of operation. Further investigation would be required to determine how this could affect the economics of the project. 9.2 Recommendations If GVEA decides to further investigate a hydropower project at this site, recommendations include the following: DV1 03.00209.01 9-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon Knight Pies old CONSULTING • Conduct further studies to determine if the economics can be improved by increasing the weir height and/or the design flow. • Contact the Alaska Power and Telephone Company to evaluate their interest in purchasing power from a potential hydropower facility at Cathedral Rapids so that transmission costs could be reduced. • Investigate the possible effects of production tax credits on the economics of the project. • Perform aerial mapping and river channel surveys at the site to define the site topography, including the channel geometry and the inundation area for the weir and reservOir • Conduct geotechnical field investigations to determine the depth to bedrock for construction of the weir, seismic and geologic conditions at the site, and availability of construction materials in the vicinity of the site. • Identify land ownership at the project site and in the area that would be flooded by the we1r. • Initiate baseline environmental studies at the project site to provide the basis for an Environmental Assessment or Environmental Impact Statement. • Conduct an investigation of fisheries resources and recreational use to determine the requirements for bypass flows. • Investigate the potential effects of sediment loading on the weir, the impoundment and the turbines. • Determine the federal and state permitting and licensing requirements and contact the appropriate regulatory agencies and community stakeholders to identify and address any potential environmental concerns. • Investigate the potential effects of price volatility of material costs, fuel costs and electricity prices on the economic feasibility of the project. DV103.00209.01 9-2 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon Knight Piesold CONSULTING 10.0 Certification This report entitled "Golden Valley Electric Association, Tanana River Hydropower Scheme, Tanacross, Alaska, Reconnaissance Study, Final Report" was prepared lor Golden Valley Electric Association by Knight Piesold and Co. The material in this report reflects the best judgment of Knight Piesold and Co. in light of the information available to both firms at the time of the report preparation. Any usc that a third party makes of this report, or any reliance on or decisions made based on it, arc the full responsibility of such third parties. Knight Picsold and Co. and Golden Valley Electric Association accept no responsibility tor damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or actions taken based on this repot1. This numbered report is a controlled document. Any reproductions of this report are uncontrolled and may not be the most recent revision. This report was completed by Knight Piesold and Co. under the coordination of Gilbcrto Dominguez, P.E., Principal, and was prepared by John Dwyer, P.E., Project Engineer and Charles Hutton, P.E., Senior Consultant. AI Gipson, P.E., Senior Consultant, and Steve Farrand, Geologist, prepared the geology and geotechnical sections. The electrical systems design was furnished by NEI Electric Power Engineering, and the mechanical systems design by Ken Laurence, P.E., Senior Consultant. Final review was conducted by Gilberto Dominguez, P.E., Principal and Sam Mottram, P.E, Manager, Power Systems. Project Engineer I I Gi).berto Dominguez, P.E. Pfncipal DV103.00209.01 REVO-Tanana Hydropower Recon.doc 10-1 Charles C. Hutton, P.E. Senior Consultant January 6. 2009 Knight Piesold CONSULTING 11.0 References Carver, G.A., Bemis, S.P., et al, 2008. "Active and Potentially Active Faults in or Near the Alaska Highway Corridor, Delta Junction to Dot Lake, Alaska." Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys. Preliminary Interpretative Report 2008-3d. December, 2008. Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), June 2003. "Estimation of Economic Parameters of US. Hydropower Resources. " Knight Piesold, October 2008. "Tanana River Hydropower Reconnaissance Study -Technical ~Fatal Flaw Analysis." Memorandum to Golden Valley Electric Association. PDC Engineers, 2008. "GVEA Tok-Healy Hydro Study, Survey Report." PDC Memorandum No. F08116 from Craig Ranson to Paul Park. October 1, 2008, Fairbanks, Alaska. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, July 1979. "Feasibility Studies for Small-Scale Hydropower Additions. " Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California. USBR, 2002. "Hydropower Construction Cost Trends'', U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, http://usbr.gov/power/index.html, October 2002. U. S. Department of the Interior, July 1980. "Reconnaissance Evaluation of Small, Low-Head Hydroelectric Installations" Water and Power Resources Center, Engineering and Research Center. DV1 03.00209.01 11-1 January 7, 2009 Rev 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon Figures TANANA RIVER HYDROPOWER PROJECT 8 0 8 16 JojiL(S PROJECT LOCATION Knigl!! f.i!~l!l4 REVISION A G:\ I 03\00209.0 1 Knight Piesold CONSULTING 25,000 20 ,000 -~ 15,000 -;: ..9 10,000 LL 5 ,000 0 DV1 03.00209.01 Tanana River Mean Monthly Flow 1953-1990 Sta. 154 76000 Jan Feb Mar Ap r May Jun Ju l Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 3.1 -Tanana River Mean Monthly Flows January 6, 2009 REV 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon-Figure 3.1 Knight Piesold CON8ULTING 60,000 50,000 40,000 -Ill ..... CJ 'i' 30,000 0 u:: 20,000 'Kl,OOO 0 0 % 10 % DV103.00209.01 20 % Tanana River Near Tanacross Flow Duration Curve (May-October) ----+------- 30 % 40% 50 % 60% 70% Percent of Excedence ~U SGS 154 76000 80% Figure 3.2 -Tanana River (Cathedral Rapids) Flow Duration Curve REV 0-Tanana Hydropower Recon -Figure 3.2 90 % 'KJ O% January 6, 2009 nnE 1.25 0 1.25 2.5 t.jiLES GOLDEN VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION TANANA RIVER HYDROPOWER PROJECT TANANA-LITLE GERSTLE RIVER SITE CONCEPTUAL LAYOUT Knig~( fil§.l?l4 LOCAT10N I PROJECT NLNBER .5 0 .5 1 t.41LE 4 .2 .dwg 1"'\•3 I ~ "'~...._ ............ ~ - TITLE LEGEND : PROPOSED WEIR LOCATION - - - -PROPOSED ACCESS ROAD ,..._ GOLDEN VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION TANANA RN£R HYDROPOWER PROJECT CATHEDRAL RAPIDS SITE CONCEPTUAL SITE PLAN Knigl};{ f.i!~J!ltl LOCATlON I PROJECT Nl.JroeER --------------~- TUR~NE POWf:RHOU$[ ~~~~~US< _J PLAN NOT 4),tw1J - RI\'£R f3,1_NK GOLDEN VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION TANANA RIVER H'lllROPOWfR PROJECT WEIR AND POWERHOUSE CONCEPTUAl lAYOUT-PlAN ll"EmiON ' RIVERBED\ 'Y~ ~AX WS (L ... r---~-~ '1 1 1 _ ... ·' . .-' ·· I ·,·,, ', ... ',·, I f ... . . . . · ... · .. ·" ·.., . . N II i-·~: :·:·· ·: ··:. ·.· .. '· r ..•. +--=w----1· .. · ·. . ·. . · ..... : ... --.. ~: l·.-: ·:·,_. ·_:: ·_·,··.·.-: ·.::· . .-:;:·.· ·.:; _-._:_ : ·.:. · .... · ·, j_____l .. -...-.~, -~· =====~·' ~~ ~ ······~· ... ~ w ~ .· . A SECTION 4, 4 NOT TO SCALE ·1 !/~~ "r· .. '0"" ., " I ! li I I 'I I 1-... _ ·. r. . . . . ·.. . . . . .. . . . ·.I '"""" " " D'"" "'c"'"" \ l/ I I 1 I' .-I. ! :rr: . · ~ I I I I .. ·~--·.:~· .• /GENERA'" ~ . I ' IL ~~~. ~ ~-·~. ··~ '""' --:· ·-~f-.-u::,,---o·.· ._-. --~~c---:--~-:~_._~, :_:_-·~:~~~-~-~~~~~,--: ~J---.-,: 1 [ ~ e] RIYER BED E:.. I / ~SHIU.CK' I I I -~-~~ -----~fJ-----1r--,--1--r ------------~~~~~ --------] ."URB'<c CE<'ERc,.E_-fl----n--Y--t -I------~:::::::--=-----...:_------_ ___i f I . I ' ' I - -1-~-;------------1 / oro;tg; ----1 i j.. i • • ; ; ~ -:-, ----=-----• --_---------~~ -----.....____ ;-TO"COG. • ' r·~~-.::~·-===-ss-·lr: I .. . ... .. • .. • •. . : . ~-:---~--"---·--~ ~--~ ~~...::...:-.....::.:."_~~-_:,_--t~~:._.:-~ 4 B 4 ) ~-E~T!_O~ c·\.'OJ\00209 01\CAD\Des•gn\W·P\To"N:i~o_o20ooVIGURE 4 4 owg NOTES: 1 ALL OI~E--S•ONS AND ELEVAllONS ARE IN >EET. JNLESS NO~ED OTHERWISE GOLDEN VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION TANANA RIVER HYDROPOWER PROJECT WEIR AND POWERHOUSE CONCEPTUAL LAYOUT -SECTIONS VA103 'I' 0 .. _ -- --, -jJ_ - 4.5.dwg ~------==-== I I rr~FI electric power engineering P.O. Bo!( 1265 ANodo, CO 80001 (303) 431-7$95 FAX (303) 431-1836 CLIENT PROJECT T111..E r---- Rl-ll'll_(lll) __ -~l"l-­ ll'l41-~-­ illl•liiiiP-C:lf'IJ- -~llll-tl(P'!)-­ ~l"'I-- E-tlm{l"'lj-- 1li.-«<U0-'1"11!"'1)--- al.-111-tl(li't)-- Z,.JIIl-(111)--- -....qt ...... {l"'l)-- GOLDEN VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION TANANA RIVER HYDROPOWER PROJECT SINGLE LINE DIAGRAM Kni IJt Pibold ~CONSULTING DESIGNED BY i DRAWN BY Rl!\'1S!ON A Knight Piesold CONSULTING 18 16 -~ 14 ; 12 ns en I-- Cl) :::!: 10 --;:, 8 Q. -;:, 0 6 ... ; 4 0 D.. 2 0 n r::::J Tanana River Hydropower Scheme Average Monthly Power Output .--- -:----- ..-I ~ 1--i----I ' ~ 1--'--- f-- I f----- i r-- ~ I ' r-- t--H----i ~ ; i-:-+ ! 1-'-----1---~ ~ ' 1--1--f--1-- r-1 n ' .--- f---n JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV Month Figure 5.1 -Average Monthly Power Output Notes: 1) Based on mean daily flows for the period of record (1953-1990), minus 1,500 cfs for fisheries requirements . 2) Transformer efficiency is assumed to be 99.5 %. 3) Unscheduled outages are assumed to be 3 %. DV1 03.00209.01 REV 0 -Tanana Hydropower Recon -Figure 5 .1 1 I i l I I o l DEC January 6, 2009 Appendix A Cost Estimate Knight Piesold CONSULTING APPENDIX A RECONNAISSANCE LEVEL OPINION OF PROBABLE CONSTRCTION COSTS Tanana River Hydroelectric Project (4 Pit Turbines@ 4.2 MW = 16.8 MW Installed Capacity) ITEM UNIT= QUANTITY I UNIT RATE ($) PRELIMINARY & GENERAL Mobilization and Demobilization L.S. 1 3,147,000 SITE DEVELOPMENT Access Roads miles 1.00 425,000 POWERHOUSE and ANCILLARY SERVICES Dewatering L.S. 1 1,517,000 Excavation L.S. 1 650,000 Foundation Treatment LS. 1 290,000 Civil Works and Structure L.S. 1 14,520,000 Intake Gate LS. 1 800,000 WEIR Diversion and Care of Water L.S. 1 474,000 Excavation cyd 25,000 25 Roller Compacted Concrete cyd 16,000 150 Concrete (weir and abutments) cyd 4,500 1,000 Foundation Treatment L.S. 1 376,000 POWER GENERATION (Water to Wire Package) LS. 1.0 17,175,000 Installation & commissioning L.S. 1 4,293,750 SWITCHYARD AND TRANSMISSION LINE Switchyard L.S. 1 2,154,000 Transmission Line (138 kV) to Della Junction miles 85.0 335,000 ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS Fish Passage L.S. 1 4,850,000 CONSTRUCTION COST SUBTOTAL CONTINGENCY (% of Construction Cost) % 25 TOTAL ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION COST Engineering, Administration & Construction Management % 15 Licensing and Permits % 4 Legal Fees % 4 Subtotal Other Costs TOTAL PROJECT COST Rev 0 Final Print 1rl/09 14:58 AMOUNT= ($) 3,147,000 425,000 '"':ml 650,0 290, 14,520, 800,000 474,00( 625,00! 2,400,00( 4,500,00( 376,00( 17,175:~~~ 4,294,0 2,154,000 28,475,000 4,850,000 $ 86,672,000 $ 21,668,000 $ 108,340,000 $ 16,251,000 $ 4,334,000 $ 4,334,000 $ 24,919,000 $ 133,259,000 Appendix B Economic Analyses Project: Tanana River Cathedral Rapids Hydropower Recon Study Feature: Economic Analysis using a Discount Rate of 6 \ Detail: Pile: Alt Mo ... 16 .8 MW Installed Capacity Initial Cost (2008 prices) Construction cost • $108,340,000 Other cost = S24 I 919 I 000 Total Project cost First Year Ann Costs c Input from Power Analysis : Average Annual Energy .. Average Mo Capacity 2008 2009 2010 Year Year No 2011 4 2012 5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 2018 11 2019 12 2020 13 2021 14 2022 15 2023 16 2024 17 2025 18 2026 19 2027 20 2028 21 2029 22 2030 23 2031 24 2032 25 2033 26 2034 27 2035 28 2036 29 203 7 30 2038 31 2039 32 Ann Debt Service ($) 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9. 681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9' 681,121 9' 681, 121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9. 681,121 9. 681,121 9 ,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9' 681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9' 681,121 9,681,121 Net Present value Benefit Cost Ratio Costs Annual OEcM Cost ($) 1831750 187,425 191,174 194' 997 1981897 202' 875 206,932 211,071 215' 292 219,598 223.990 228,470 233.039 2371700 2421454 247,303 252,249 257 ,294 262.440 267,689 273,043 278,504 284' 074 289,755 295' 550 301,461 307,491 313,640 319,913 326,311 Present Worth of Net Benefits, $ Notes: 1. Avoided Cost • $0 .13/kllh 2 . Discowtt and Interest Rate • 3 . 0 & M Escalation Rate = 2 ' 4. Avoided Cost Escalation Rate -= 2' $133' 259' 000 $183,750 52' 500' 000 kWh 0 kll Total Cost ($) 9,864,871 9, 868 ,546 9,872,295 9,876,118 9,880,018 9,883,996 9,888,054 9,892,192 9, 896,414 9,900,720 9, 905, 112 9 ,909,591 9,914,161 9,918,822 9,923,576 91928,425 9,933,371 9,938,416 9,943,562 91948,810 9. 954,164 9,959,625 9,965,195 9 ,970,877 9,976,672 9, 982,583 9,988,612 9,994,762 10,001,034 10,007,433 $136,403,990 Energy Revenue ($) 6,825,000 6,961,500 7, 100. 730 7,242,745 7,387,599 7,535 ,351 7,686,059 71839,780 7,996, 575 8,156,507 8,319,637 8,486,030 8,655, 750 8,828 1865 9' 005.443 9, 185,551 9,369,262 9,556,648 9,747,781 91 9421 736 10,141,591 10,344,423 10,551,311 10, 762,337 10,977' 584 11,1971136 11,421,079 11,649,500 11,882,490 12,120,140 0.86 (19,590,000 ) Salvage Value: Hydro val= $0 Picel val"" $0 TOtal SV= $0 Revenues Capacity Revenue ($) 0 0 Job No: By: CCII Chkd.By: Yearly Total Revenue ($) 6,825,000 6, 961,500 7,100,730 7,242,745 7,387,599 7' 535,351 7,686,059 7,839,780 7,996,575 8' 156' 507 8,319,637 8,486,030 8,655, 750 8, 828,865 9,005,443 9, 185,551 9,369, 262 9,556,648 9,747,781 9,942,736 10,141,591 10,344,423 10,551,311 10,762,337 10,977,584 11,197,136 11,421,079 11' 649, 500 11' 882 '490 12 ,120,140 $116' 813' 901 Sheet #: Date: 12/18/08 Date: Capacity value mult . Yea:rJ,y Capacity value = Economic Parameters: 0. 00, Loan Repayment Period = 3 0 y rs Energy Value = 0 .1300 0 /kWh Capacity Value = $0.00 /k.W-rno Energy Value Escalation = 0 &: M Cost Escalation = Canst . Cost Bscalat ion Discount Rate = 2 ' 2 ' 0' 6 ' Cash Flow Net Cash Flow ($) (3. 039.871 (2,907,046) (2,771,565) (2,633,374) (2,492,419) (2,348,645) (2,201,995) (2,052,413: (1,899,838) (1,744,213) (1,585,475) (1,423,562) (1,258,410) (1,089,956) (918,133) (742' 873) (564,108) 381' 768 195,781 (6' 074) 187,427 384,798 5861 116 791,461 1, 000,913 1,214, 553 1,432,467 1,654,739 1,881,456 2,112,707 Accum Net Cash Flow ($) (3,039,871 (5,946,918) (8,718,482) (11, 351, 856) (13,844,275) (16,192, 919) 118,394,915) 120,447,327) (22,347,166) (24,091,378) (25,676,853) (27,100,415) .28, 358, 825) (29, 448, 781) (30,366,914) (31,109, 788) (31, 673, 896) (32, 055, 664) (32,251,445) (32, 257. 519) (32,070,092) (31,685,294) (31,099,178) (30, 307' 717) (29,306, 804) (28,092,251) (26,659, 784) (25. 005. 046) (23 ,123' 590) (21, 010,883 5. The average annual energy production period is 321 days, based on average values for the period of record from 1953 to 1990. The most probable non-production period due to low-flow conditions is from February 15 to March 31 . Tanana Cathedral Rapids Econ Anal.xls 12/18/2006 Project: Tanana River Cathedral Rapids Hydropower Recon Study Feature : Economic Analysis Using a Discount Rate of 4 \ Detail: Pile: Alt No . ., 16 .8 MW Installed Capacity Initial Cost (2008 prices) Construction cost = $108,340,000 Other cost = S24. 919, 000 Total Project Cost First Year Ann Costs Input from Power Analysis: Average Annual Energy Average Mo Capacity Year Year No 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 2018 11 2019 12 2020 13 2021 14 2022 15 2023 16 2024 17 2025 18 2026 19 2027 20 2028 21 2029 22 2030 23 2031 24 2032 25 2033 26 2034 27 2035 28 2036 29 2037 30 2038 31 2039 32 Ann Debt Service ($) 7,706,381 7,706,381 7, 706,381 7,706,381 7' 706,381 7, 706,381 7' 706,381 7' 706,381 7' 706,381 7, 706,381 7,706,381 7' 706,381 7,706,381 7' 706,381 7' 706,381 7, 706,381 7' 706,381 7, 706,381 7' 706,381 7,706,381 7' 706,381 7, 706,381 7, 706,381 7' 706,381 7, 706,381 7,706, 381 7,706,381 7' 706,381 7, 706,381 7,706,381 Net Present Value Benefit Cost Ratio costs Annual O&M cost ($) 183' 750 187,425 191' 174 194' 997 198' 897 202,875 206' 932 211,071 215,292 219,598 223' 990 228,470 233' 039 237' 700 242,454 247,303 252,249 257,294 262 '440 267,689 273' 043 278,504 284' 074 289,755 295' 550 301,461 307,491 313' 640 319,913 326' 311 Present Worth of Net Benefits, $ Notes: 1. Avoided cost = $0 .13/kWh 2. Discount and Interest Rate = 4 3. 0 & M Escalation Rate = 2 \' 4. Avoided Cost Escalation Rate = 2\ $133' 259' 000 $183,750 52,500,000 kWh 0 kW Total Cost ($) 7' 890' 131 7,893,806 7,897,555 7,901,378 7,905,278 7,909,256 7,913,314 7,917,452 7, 921,674 7,925,979 7,930,371 7,934,851 7, 939,421 7,944,081 7' 948,835 7, 953,684 7' 958,631 7' 963' 676 7, 968,821 7, 974,070 7, 979,424 7,984,885 7,990,455 7, 996,136 8, 001,932 8, 007,843 8,013,872 8, 020' 022 8,026,294 8,032,693 $137,315,496 Energy Revenue ($) 6, 825,000 6, 961,500 7' 100' 730 7,242,745 7,387,599 7,535,351 7' 686,059 7,839,780 7,996,575 8,156' 507 8,319,637 8,486,030 8,655,750 8,828,865 9' 005' 443 9, 185,551 9,369,262 9,556,648 9, 747' 781 9, 942,736 10,141,591 10,344,423 10,551,311 10,762,337 10,977,584 11,197' 136 11,421,079 11,649,500 11,882,490 12,120,140 1.10 13,354,000 Salvage Value: Hydro val• $0 Pioel val= $0 Total sv-$0 Revenues Capacity Revenue ($) Job NO: By, CCH Chkd.By' Yearly Total Revenue ($) 6,825,000 6, 961,500 7,100,730 7,242,745 7,387,599 7' 535,351 7' 686,059 7' 839' 780 7, 996,575 8,156, 507 8,319,637 8,486, 030 8,655,750 8,828,865 9,005,443 9,185,551 9,369,262 9,556,648 9, 747' 781 9' 942' 736 10,141,591 10,344,423 10,551,311 10,762,337 10,977' 584 11,197' 136 11,421,079 11,649,500 11,882,490 12,120,140 $150,669,863 Sheet #' Date: Date: 12/18/08 Capacity value mult. Yearlv Caoacitv value = Economic Parameters: o. oot Loan Repayment Period = 3 0 yrs Energy Value = 0.13000 /kWh Capacity value = $0.00 /kW-mo Energy Value Escalation = 0 & M Cost Escalation = Const. Cost Escalation = Discount Rate = 2 t 2 t 0 t 4 t Cash Flow Net Cash Flow ($) (1 ,065,131 ) 1932,306 I (796,8251 (658, 634 I (517,6791 (373,905 1 (227,2551 (77,672 1 74,902 230,527 389' 266 551,178 716,330 884,784 1,056,607 1,231,867 1' 410' 632 1,592,972 1,778,959 1,968,666 2' 162' 167 2,359,538 2,560,856 2,766,201 2,975,653 3,189,293 3,407,207 3,629,479 3,856,196 4,087,447 Accum Net cash Flow ($) (1, 065,1311 (1,997,4371 (2,794,2621 (3,452,8961 (3,970,5741 (4,344,4791 (4,571,7341 (4,649,4061 (4,574,5051 (4 '343' 9771 (3' 954, 712) (3,403,5331 (2,687,2041 (1,802,420) (745, 8131 486,054 1,896,686 3,489, 658 5,268, 618 7,237,284 9,399,451 11,758,988 14,319,845 17' 086,046 20,061,699 23,250,992 26,658,199 30,287,677 34,143,873 38,231,321 5. The average annual energy production period is 321 days, based on average values for the period of record from 1953 to 1990. The most probahle non-production period due to low-flow conditions is from February 15 to March 31. Tanana Cathedral Rapids Econ Anal.xls 12118/2008 Project: Tanana River Cathedral Rapids Hydropower Recon Study Feature: Economic Analysis to Calculate Avoided Cost for Positive cash Flow in First Y Detail: File: Alt No. = 16.8 MW Installed. Capacity Inl.tial cost Construction cost Other cost Total Project cost First Year Ann Costs Input from Power Analysis: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Year No 2015 2016 9 2017 10 2 018 11 2019 12 2020 2021 14 2 022 15 2023 16 2 024 17 2025 18 2026 19 2027 20 2028 21 2029 22 2030 23 2031 24 2012 2S 2033 2& 2034 27 2035 28 2036 29 2037 30 2038 2039 32 Net Present Value Average Annual Energy Average Mo Capac~ty Ann Debt Service ($) 9,681.121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9.681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9 '681, 121 9.691,121 :9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9' 681' 121 9,681' 121 9,681,121 9,681,:!.21 9,681,121 9,681,121 9.681,121 9,681,121 9,681,121 9' 681, 121 9,681,12.1 9,681,121 9,681,121 Costs Annual O&M Cost ($) 1133' 750 187,425 191,174 194,997 198' 897 202,875 206,932 211,071 215,492 2191598 223' 990 228,470 233,039 237' 700 242,454 247' 252,249 257,294 262,440 267,689 273,043 278,504 284' 074 289,755 295' 550 301,461 307,491 313' 640 319,913 326,311 Benefit Cost: Rat:t.o (2008 000 $133,259,000 $183,750 52,500, 000 kWh 0 ):W Total Cost ($} 9,864,871 9,8GR,S46 9,872,295 Sf' 876, 118 9, 880,018 9' 883' 996 9, 888,054 9,892,192 9,896,414 9,900,720 90S, 112 9,909,591 9,914,161 9. 918,822 9, 923,576 9,928,425 9,933,371 9,938,416 9' 943.562 9,948,810 9, 95•C 164 9,959,625 9,965,195 9,970,877 9,976,672 9,982,583 9,988,612 9,994,762 10,001,034 10,007,433 $136,403,990 Present worth of Net. Benefits, $ Notes: 1. Avoided Cost = $0 .184/kWh Discount and Interest Rate = 6 % 3. o & M Escalation Rate 2 t 4 Avoided cost Escalation Rate = 2% Energy Revenue 1$1 9,864,871 10,062,169 10,263,412 10,468,680 10,678,054 891, 61!3 11,109,447 11, 331,6]6 11,558,:269 11,789,434 12,025,223 12,265.728 12,511,042 12,761,263 13,016,488 13.276,818 13,542,354 13,813,201 14,089,465 14,371,255 14,658,680 l4, 951,853 15,250,890 15,555,908 15,867,026 16,184,367 16, ?08, 054 16,838,215 17,174,980 17,518,479 1. 24 32,439,000 Salvage Value: val• $0 val= $0 Total SV= $0 Revenues Capacity Revenue l$1 Job No: BT CCH Chkd. Eyo Yearly Total Revenue 1$1 9,864,871 10,06:2,169 10,263,412 10,468,680 10,678,054 10,891,615 11,109,447 11,331,636 11,558,269 11,789,434 12,025,223 12,265,728 12,511,042 12,"161,263 13' 016' 488 13,276,818 13,542,354 13,813,201 14,089,465 14' 371' 255 14' 658' 680 14,951,853 250,890 15,555,908 15,867,026 16,1.84,367 16,508,054 1G.B38,215 17,174,980 518,479 $168,843,092 Sheet #: Date: 12/18/08 Da,te: Capacity value rnult. Yearly Capacity value Economic Parameters: Loan Repayment Period Energy Value Capacity Value Energy Value Escalat on • o & M cost Escalat on Const. Cost Escalat on Discount Rate Cash Flow Net Cash Flow 1$1 193.622 391,117 592,562 798,036 1, 007 I 619 1,221,394 1,439,444 1,661,855 1,888,715 2,1.20,112 2,356,136 2,596,881 2,842,441 3,092,913 348,393 3,608,984 3,874,786 4,145,904 4,42.1L444 4,704,516 4,992,228 5,285,695 5,585,032 5,890,)55 6,201,784 6,519,442 6,843,454 7,173,945 7,511,047 Accum Net Cash r'low {$} 1931 622 584, 740 1,177,302 1,975,338 2, 982,956 4,204,350 5,643,734 7,305,649 9,194.164 11,314,476 13,670,612 16,267,49) 19,109,935 22,202,847 25.551,241 29,160,224 33,035,010 37' 180,914 41,603,359 46,307,874 51,300,102 56,585,798 62,170, 68,061,184 74. 2G2, 969 80,782,411 87,625,865 94,799,810 102, 857 0. 00% 30 yrs 0.18790 /kWh $0. oo /kW-mo 2 ~ 2 % 0 % 6 % The average annual energy production period is 321 days, based on average values for the period of record from 1953 to 1990. The most probable non-production period due to low-flow conditions is from February 15 to March 3L Tanana Cathedral Rapids Econ Anal.xls 12/1812008 Appendix C Photos Tanana-Little Gerstle Rivers Dam and Hydropower Site Tanana River Cathedral Rapids Site