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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSalmon Creek Final Feasibility Study 1978\ '' RECEIVED JUN 2 81978 AlASKA POWER AUTHORITY FiNAL FEASI B! UTY STUDY of ALTEf{Nf\TIVES roR F~E!lABiLIT/\TION OF SAU<"iON CREEl<. HYDHOELECTRIC PROJECT (FPC No 0 2307) Submitted to Alaska Electric Light and Powet' Company Juneau, Alaska f~<bn.:h 1973 ROBERT Wo RETHERFORD ASSOCIATES Po Oo Rox 6410 Anchot'age, Al<'lska 99502 I nternat ion iii Engineering Cornpany, Inc 0 220 f'.1orltr;:J'A·•:·:'t"y Stn::et San Francisco 1 California 941 OtJ. rc W )l ~OBER_~~-RETHERF?RD ASSOCIATE? u D \J CONSULTING ENGINEERS March 16, 1978 TELEPHONE 344-2585 P. 0. BOX 6410 ANCHORAGE. ALASKA 99502 TELEX: 626-380 Mr. William A. Corbus, Assistant Manager Alaska Electric Light and Power Co. 134 N. Franklin Street Juneau, Alaska 99801 Dear Mr. Corbus: 204-710 We are pleased to submit twenty-five (25) copies of a feasibility study of alternatives for the rehabilitation of Salmon Creek Hydroelectric project (FPC No. 2307). Presented in the study are an update on the hydrology 1 a hydraulic analysis of the waterways, capital cost estimates of alternatives, power cost estimates of alternatives, and capacity and energy requirements forecasts for the Juneau area assuming the capital does and does not move. Our conclusions are that (1) the projected load growth for the AELP system will justify the rehabilitation of the Salmon Creek hydroelectr-ic project; (2) power from the rehabilitated project will be significantly less than diesel generation and competitive with Snettisham power in the near future; and (3) AELP should initiate methods of financing and construction design as soon as possible. A possible source of financing may be through the Alaska Power Authority. The study was prepared by the joint venture of Robert W. Retherford Asso- ciates and International Engineering Company, Inc. Contributions were made by Kent Miller 1 Consulting Economist, who contributed the projected population and power requirements forecasts. Comments received as a result of the review of the preliminary report dated January 6, 1978 have been incorporated into this report. This has been a most inter~sting and challenging assignment. We will be very happy to assist you in future phases of development of this important project. Sincerely 1 ROBERT W. RETHERFORD ASSOCIATES G cv,£, fl.' ~,4( Carl H. Steeby, P.E. Principal Civil Engineer CHS:ngl1 A DIVISION OF ARKANSAS GLASS CONTAINER CORPORATION TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION Page I. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1.1 Summary A. Hydrology B. Hydraulics C. Capital Cost Estimates D. Power Cost Estimates E. Load and Energy Requirements Forecast F. Transmission 1. 2 Recommendations II. EXISTING SYSTEM 2.1 General 2.2 Upper Salmon Creek Stage 2.3 Lower Salmon Creek Stage 2.4 1977 Investigations Salmon Creek No. 2 Power Plant Salmon Creek No. 1 Power Plant Dams and Waterways Inspection of Chatanika Powerhouse Equipment Ill. PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS 3.1 Employment in Juneau, 1975-2000 3.2 Juneau•s Population, 1975-2000 3. 3 Power and Energy Forecasts, 1975-2000 IV. HYDROLOGY 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 7 7 8 9 14 21 23 31 36 37 45 SECTION V. HYDRAULICS VI. VII. 5.1 A. Existing System from Dam to Powerhouse No. 2 B. Replacing 30 11 , 32 11 and 34 11 Diameter Penstock C. Powerhouse No. 2 to Powerhouse No. 1 0. New Penstock from Dam to Powerhouse No. 1 E. Hydraulic Recommendations CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE 6.1 Installation of New Automated 5000 kW Unit at Powerhouse No. 2 6.2 Upgrade Equipment and Automate Upper Salmon Creek Powerhouse No. 2 6.3 Upgrade Equipment and Automate Lower Salmon Creek Powerhouse No. " I 6.4 New Automated Equipment At Powerhouse 6.5 Ne\.v Automated Equipment At Powerhouse No .. 1 (2-4500 kW Units & Eliminate Powerhouse No. 2) 6.6 New Automated Equipment At Powerhouse No. No. 1 (one 9000 kW unit and Eliminate Powerhouse No. 2) POWER COST ESTIMAT 1 51 52 53 54 58 60 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 TABLES TABLE 3-1 Employment in Alaska, the Southeast Region and Juneau, 1975-2000 3-2 Juneau Area Population 1960-2000 3-3 Sales of Electricity 1960-2000 3-4 Sales of Electricity 1 Generation and Peak Demand 1960-2000 3-5 Residential Hookup Saturation 1975-1976 4-1 Synthetic Inflow -Salmon Creek Reservoir 7-1 Power Cost Estimate -New Automated 5000 kW Unit at Powerhouse No. 2 7-2 Power Cost Estimate -Rehabilitate and /-\utomate Existing Powerhouse No. 2 7-3 Power Cost Estimate -Rehabilitate and Automate Existing Powerhouse No. 1 7-4 Power cost Estimate -New Automated 3000 kW Unit at Powerhouse No. 1 7-5 Power Cost Estimate -New Automated Plant at Powerhouse No. 1 with 2··4500 k\N Units 7-6 Power cost Estimate -new Automated Plant at Powerhouse No. 2 with one 9000 kW Unit 7-7 Combination Power Cost Estimate 40 41 42 43 44 46 74 75 76 77 78 19 80 FIGURE 1. 2. 3. APPENDIX A. B. FIGURES Salmon Creek Hydroelectric Project Penstock Plan and Profile - Dam to Powerhouse No. 2 Sheet 1 of 2 Sheet 2 of 2 Existing Flume Detail and Suggested Rehabilitation APPENDICES Safety Inspection, Project No. 2307 -Alaska (1977) Thickness Survey of the Upper and Lower Salmon Creek Penstock and Annex Creek (1976) 10 11 12 13 A-1 B-1 SECTION I SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Alaska Electric Light and Power Company (AELP) recognizes the need to (1) add reliable backup generating capacity when energy from the Snettisham Project is not available; (2) rehabilitate the Lower Salmon facility, and (3) reduce operating expenses at the Upper Salmon Plant for economic production. These requirements have led to the author- ization of this study, which has the objectives of providing AELP with a current estimate of the costs of alternatives and a recommendation of the most favorable course of development. The study is summarized in the following paragraphs and recommendations presented. 1.1 Summary A. Hydrology (Section IV) This is essentially an update of the hydrologic data included in the 1966 Bechtel Report. The regulated flow from the Salmon Reservoir was determined to be 54.2 cfs from the 28-year synthetic mass hydrograph. The mean annual flow for the 28-year pedod was 66.1 cfs. B. Hydraulics (Section V) The hydraulics of the existing system were analyzed and the hydraulic characteristics, diameters, wall thicknesses, and weights of alternate waterways were computed. The hydraulic recommendations are shown on page 58, Section V. Page 1 SECTION I -SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS C. Capital Cost Estimate (Section VI) The estimate of costs are provided for six alternates: 1. A new 5000 kW automated unit at Powerhouse No. 2 (Upper Salmon Creek). This includes replacing the existing 30", 32" and 34" sections of the penstock with new 36 11 to reduce friction losses. 2. The upgrading and automation of the existing equipment at powerhouse no. 2. This includes the replacement of the penstock sections enumerated in 1. 3. The upgrading and automation of the existing equipment at powerhouse no. 1. This includes replacing the flume with low-pressure conduit, a new 48'' penstock and a surge tank. 4. A new automated 3000 kW unit at powerhouse no. 1 with waterway improvements as in 3 above. 5. The installation of two new automated 4500 kW units in powerhouse no. 1 with a new penstock from the darn. 6. The installation of one new automated 9000 kW unit in powerhouse no. 1 with a new penstock from the dam. The construction costs are current (1978) costs based upon the latest labor rates, construction equipment costs and recent costs for mechanical/ electrical equipment and permanent materials. In Section 7 of this t·eport, the total costs are escalated at the rate of 7% per year through the assumed construction period for each alternate in order to provide a realistic basis for power costs. Page 2 1 2 3 SECTION I -SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS The 1978 capital cost estimates for the above alternates in respec- tive order are: 1 . $3,074/000 2 2,441,000 3. 4/017/000 4. 4,459,000 5. 14,804/100 6. 14/106,900 D. Power Cost Estimates (Section VII) Utilizing the capital cost estimates (escalated to reflect costs through the assumed construction period) and estimates of other annual costs, costs of power were estimated for the six alter- natives and combinations of the first four alternatives. The cost estimates assume financing at 10.5% interest and 20 year maturity. The cost of power for the six alternatives and combinations thereof are as follows: Item Sales (kWh) 1 Cost (mills/kWh) 2 1 26/600/000 17.6 2 25,270,000 3 14.9 3 15/623,0003 36.1 4 16/445,000 34.4 5 43,167,000 45.8 6 43,167,000 43.6 2 & 3 40,893,0003 23.0 2 & 4 41,715,000 3 22.5 1 & 3 42,223,000 3 24.5 1 & 4 43,045,000 24.0 Bus bar sales --does not include transmission losses Does not include amortization costs of existing Salmon Creek facilities. New units are expected to be at least 5% more efficient than rehabilitated units. Page 3 1 SECTION I -SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS As a comparison, an article appearing in the Dec. 22, 1977 Anch- orage Times states 11 lf rates at Snetti sham remained the same for the first ten years of the 60-year repayment period, they would have to be lifted from the present 15.6 mills to at least 27.1 mills for the last 50 years. In addition, the accounting office said, a possible loss of customers for the Snettisham project caused by moving the capital from Juneau might require even greater rate increases for the remaining customers. 11 1 E. Load and Energy Requirements Forecast (Section Ill) The basis for the electrical load growth forecasts developed for this report are essentially forecasts of employment for the City and Borough of Juneau. Because of the dominance of state and federal employment in Juneau's economy, the major criteria for population and power forecasting are projection of such employment, (1) assuming the state capital will remain in Juneau and (2) assuming it will be moved to Willow. These forecasts indicate a rapid increase in electricity sales through the year 2000, under the assumption that the capital remains in Juneau, resulting in an overall increase of 270% in sales over 1976. A much more modest rate of 170% increase in sales through 2000 over 1976 is projected under the assumption that the capital is moved. F. Transmission Although the transmission system was not recognized as a part of this study, AELP should be aware of the need to rehabilitate the transmission line between the Upper and Lower Salmon Creek power plants in the near future. If AELP plans include a 69 kV The accounting office referred to in this quote is the U.S. General Accounting Office< I' Page 4 SECTION I -SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS transmission system, an auto-transformer to step up the generator voltage to 23,000 for present transmission from powerhouse no. 1 and a second step-up from 23,000 volts to 69 kV for the total output of both the upper and lower powerhouses (10 MVA) for future transmission should be included in the recommended rehabilitation plan. 1. 2 Recommendations The recommendations of your Engineer are to rehabilitate the Salmon Creek Hydroelectric Project in accordance with Items and IV of Section VI, namely: install a new automated 5,000 kW horizontal Francis turbine-generator unit at Powerhouse No. 2, install a new automated 3,000 kW horizontal Francis turbine- generator unit at Powerhouse No. 1, and make the proposed waterway changes shown in the Capital Cost Estimate (pages 61 and 67). The following are the reasons for these recommenda- tions: In general, the rehabilitation of the existing units is not recommended because of the age and condition of the equipment. The dependable capacity of the recommended plan of 8000 kW is 2400 kW greatet· than the plan of rehabilitating the existing units. The power costs of the recommended plan are considerably less than those of a single powerhouse at tidewater even though the recommended plan allows $52,000 per year for a caretaker at powerhouse no. 2. Page 5 SECTION I -SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS The anticipated power cost from Snettisham in 1984 is greater than the recommended plan if the capital remains in Juneau and even greater savings are likely if the capital is moved. AELP will require an additional 2500 kW generating unit for standby capacity before the year 1979. This capacity in a diesel engine driven unit is estimated to cost $600,000. Your Engineer further recommends that AELP proceed with the engineering to implement the recommended plan and contact Alyeska Pipeline Company for surplus 36 11 and 48 11 diameter pipe. The contact for Alyeska surplus materials is: Mr. R. J. Egan, Sales Specialist ALYESKA PIPELINE SERVICE COMPANY P. 0. Box 4-A Anchorage, Alaska 99509 Phone (907) 265-8855 Page 6 2.1 General SECTION II EXISTING SYSTEM The Salmon creek Hydroelectric Project (FPC License No. 2307) was constructed by the Alaska Gastineau Mining Company between 1913 and 1915, developing the full head above high tide in two stages. The project was developed to supply power for gold mining operations. The ownership passed to the Alaska Juneau Gold Mining Company in 1935. In 1973 1 Alaska Electric Light and Power acquired the electric properties located in the vicinity of Juneau from A-J Industries, Inc., the sole surviving entity resulting from the amalgamation of all the gold mines in the area. Included in the electric properties was the Salmon Creek scheme. The two stages of the Salmon Creek project consists of a lower powerhouse (powerhouse no. I) which is located about 3. 5 miles northwest of downtown Juneau near the mouth of Salmon Creek, and the upper powerhouse (powerhouse no. 2) which is located approximately 1.8 miles east from powerhouse no. I and about 2. 5 miles due north of Juneau. Regulation is provided from a reser·· voir approximately 4300 feet east of powerhouse no. 2. (See Figure No. I.) 2.2 Upper Salmon Creek Stage The Salmon Creek reservoir was formed by a constant angle con- crete arch dam 167 feet high and a crest length of 648 feet, V.thich provides 18000 acre-feet of storage at elevation 1172. The thick- ness of the arch is 6 feet at the crest and 47.5 feet maximum at the base. The spillway located at the north end of the dam leads Page 7 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM through a concrete lined channel a short distance to a rock cliff, where the discharge returns to the bed of the creek without disturbing the foundation of the dam. The spillway has 10 water- ways each 5 feet wide and with lips 3. 3 feet below the dam crest. The spillway is reported to be capable of passing I ,800 cubic feet per second before overtopping the dam. Water flows from the dam to powerhouse no. 2 through 4447 feet of riveted steel penstock which varies in diameter from 40 inches to 30 inches. The penstock, for the most part, lies on or partially buried in the ground. It crosses Salmon Creek six times 1 three times supported by bridges and three times on trestles, and passes through a tunnel approximately 150 feet in length about lOOO feet downstream from the dam. (See Figure No. 2 for penstock details.) The static head varies from 560 to 725 feet. Powerhouse No. 2 contains two units, each with a 2500 H. P. im- pulse wheel operating at 257 RPM, direct connected to a 1400 kW, three phase, 60 cycle, 2300 volt, 0.80 power factor, generator. There are two exciter units i one connected to a 75 h. p., 900 RPM impulse wheel connected to a 50 kW, 125 volt 1 d. c. motor-generator set and one 50 kW, 125 volt, :notor-generatm-~ cl. The voltage is stepped up to 23,000 volts by 6-600 kVA, single phase transformers for transmission. 2.3 Lower Salmon Creek Stage The water from the tailrace of powerhouse no. 2 can be discharged into a conduit leading to powerhouse no. I. The flow of the South Fork of Salmon Creek can be intercepted just below powerhouse no. 2. The pr-esent conduit is a 4 by 5 foot timber' flume, 9876 feet long. It was constructed in 1935 and replaced an original 4 by 6 foot flume. It is laid on a 0.25 per~ cent grade and ter~ minates in a timber forebay. Approximately 2000 feet of the flume Page 8 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM is supported by trestles where the flume traverses over ravines and small streams. (See Figure No. 3 for flume details.) The timber forebay is provided with an overflow flume which conveys surges and excess water away from the forebay to a channel leading to Salmon Creek. There are two riveted steel penstocks, varying from 42 to 30 inches in diameter, 1625 feet long, which convey the water from the forebay to powerhouse no. I. The static head is estimated at 400 feet. Powerhouse no. I contains two units, each with a 2500 H. P. im- pulse wheel operating at 257 RPM, direct connected to a 1400 kW, three phase, 60 cycle, 2300 volt, 0.80 power factor, generator. The voltage is stepped up to 23,000 volts by the use of three 1,250 kVA, single phase transformers for transmission. Power- house no. I was partially destroyed by fire in 1922 and was recon- structed in 1936. This plant has not operated since 1974 for economic reasons. 2. 4 1977 Investigations A. Study Group The study group for the 1977 investigations consisted of Mr. Delancey Smith 1 Senior Mechanical Engineer, and Mr. William Untiedt, Senior Electrical Engineer, both of International Engi- neering Company 1 and Mr. Carl Steeby, Principal Civil Engineer, and Mr. Robert Edbrooke, Senior Civil Engineer r both of_ Robert W. Retherford Associates, and Mr. Kent Miller 1 Economic Consultant. Messrs. Smith 1 Untiedt and Edbrooke visited the project site during the week of October 10, 1977, and Carl Steeby visited the site during the week of November 14, 1977. The purposes of the Page 9 N TAKEN FROM: U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SHEET JUNEAU ( 8-2) 5~a ROBERT W. RETHERFORD ASSOCIATES CONSULTING ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE , ALASKA====~==========ss ALASKA ELECTRIC LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY JUNEAU, ALASKA SALMON CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT DATE: NOVEMBER 1977 CONTRACT N0.204-710 FIGURE NO.I SCALE: 3" = I MILE """!"~ t:!;:'" : ~. • ' .,, , POWER HOUSE N0.2 3°121 29" lOu; t\l.n ....... G) .. en. +..J .. ~ m~ ~ OJ ~~ ~ ~ 10 ..., CJi ...... + II U) 30 95 I 32." ¢1 680.87,--------s 98 .3 , • I PROFILE BRIDGE 5° 301 49 11 ID 0 en 0 + LEAK IN PENSTOCK Oi ID !(')!() oo..., ....:10 0 . +..J -LLJ -~ ~~ ~~ ~:'"' r .. + ., ' " _j 0 12°16 55 I.L.I • 0 oj_ ___ _ + 0 -en RT.9°23'33 11 --------------LEA~ PENSTOCK 0+00 1+00 2+00 3+00 4+00 5+00 PLAN 6+00 7+00 8+00 ,, '*' ~6 "' • 9+00 ___.,.. g\\ .69 ID (;) '''*' -----~ 0 !(') ~A,JJ ~-OO'l .....:....: c.1'1 :z.5 ~ "": ~ '-'.i (.\J (.\J 10+00 11+00 12+00 10 en ID 10 + !(') ~E ~T. -...,; :...J 0::: LaJ ~ 0 ...J 'La.J LaJ Cf) -LaJ z -...J :I: (.) I-I<( I:!E 26°351 57" p 0 + ~ 13+00 14+00 -(\J LL ,, (j 34 I ~ 2.6 * ""' 1~77. """"!'. 32.~ '.,} ...,v 10 000 +~ U) ~ t\1 !'-!'-v ..J ,...:~ + +_j 1 tl (.\JLLJ m 1.0 ~ ~w;-~~7~0~2.~4::3~6:-----~e,~----------------------------;o~o~o~o~·----------------------------J + ...i .~· co-" -w I 0 (\J It-= I~ LEAK IN PENSTOCK t-10 ,. a: :g •••. 3 -~;:: (.\J en 10 + m 2.0 391 2011 (\J_. PROFILE -_; "' ": "1 -~ ~.. .,., Ill-<1\~ .. ~ Q. ; :l: :; :!: "! 0.,; +.J ., ..... ~0 ~!!! 0 ~ Ill+ ~ ;i ~ LEAK IN ~ ~ ~ ;!; ~ ~ {PENSTOCK __ _ ., .. .. ~ ' " ,.; + RT.31°30 43, ~.. ~15"-~'--~' 0 0 + v ...._ __ -~~~~--LT.I7°32 13 ' ~ 15+00 16+00 17+00 18+00 19+00 20+00 21+00 22+00 23+00 24+00 LLJ LaJ Cf) -LLJ z -...J :I: (.) 1-~~ -,0 0 + m C\1 I 25+00 26t00 27+00 28+00 29+-00 DESIGNED CHS 121 I ,77 f(VV)l ROBERT W. RETHERFORD ASSOCIATES u !J u CONSULTING ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE , ALASKA==============~ ALASKA ELECTRIC LiGHT AND POWER COMPANY JUNEAU, ALASKA I DATE NOVEMBER !977 DRAWN RNW 12/ I 177 PENSTOCK PLAN AND PROFILE CONTRACT NO. 204-710 CHECKED I I POWERHOUSE N0.2-DAM FIGURE N0.2 APPROVED I I SALMON CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT SCALE: GRAPHIC SHT I OF 2 j .I lirA t>S"fJ ~ ~I 6s7.\5 --. "¢ ""'I~ -- Q) _NN Q)!<)l'-. ·+ .q-t.DU) ~w,., +~'­U) _j I TRESTLE !<)~ 1- :I: en ~6 _.--54?>.7>~ tl< \ "?.'"' ,., v IF· ~~>:).-,, ~ <X) Ol Ol ...... .., LLJ w CJ) -w ITRE z (\J ' "~".~ ~ I ~ 6 •41 M 'a -' !<) u I 'j' ·,~;; v vv ~ PROFILE ~....: W(\J <Tlr- +...J Ow !<)~ :n :z::l (.) 1- <( ~ 0 0 + 0') C\1 30+-00 ~1+00 0 0 ,..; r-+ -!<) LT.Io 35'3 o' -) TUNNEL 32+00 33+00 34+00 -..,_: a:: LLJO:: zlw -10.. ....Jo.. :z:::::::>o uw~ ~w+ :::EU)~ -4011 /J ~~ I ~ I 4~+00 LIJ > J ~ ~ PLAN 35+00 36+00 371-00 --..._ _......,_....,.......__-_...__ ~ WATER (EL.IOOB .26) 44+00 PROFILE r-r- ..;t ..;t + r- 1<) RT.5° 13 'oo" -. 38+00 39+00 ALASKA ELECTRIC LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY 401"00 DESIGNED C-HS 12; I 111 DRAWN RNW 12/ I 177 CHECKED I I rr VV Jl ROBERT W. RETHERFORD ASSOCIATES lJ fj u CONSULTING ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE , ALASKA==============~ PENSTOCK PLAN AND PROFILE POWERHOUSE N0.2-DAM APPROVED I I SALMON CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 0'1 q r-1.0 10 + ...:. (\J Q) v oo oo" <X) ~ u; lw :g('~ 1 z_ t~I....J._: ..;t ~-:I: ....J -' (.)a:: lJJ 1-IJ.J <(~ :Eo O....J OLLJ +w I'()U) v- ~~8°35'20;;;.'_' __ _ ---18°35'43 --............ 41 +00 42+00 43+00 JUNEAU ,ALASKA I DATE! NOVEMBER 1977 CONTRACT N0.204-710 FIGURE NO.2 SCALE :GRAPHIC SHT 2 OF 2 \ ~/ Page 13 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM visits were to obtain information on the conditon of the existing system, collect maps, reports and data, and to study alternative rehabilitation plans. Mr. Smith proceeded to Fairbanks from Juneau to explore the suitability of installing the Chatanika hydro- electric unit in powerhouse no. 2. Field reports as a result of these visits follow: SALMON CREEK NO. 2 POWER PLANT (UPPER) Mechanical Equipment This plant has two single nozzle, single overhung (SNSOH) horizontal shaft Pelton turbines. They were manufactured in 1913 by the Joshua Hendy I ron Works of San Francisco to the design of Geo. J. Henry, Jr. of San Francisco. The original turbine rating was 2,500 H. P. at 257 RPM under 653 ft. effective head. These turbines were partially reconstructed by the Pelton Water Wheel Co. (Pelton Div. B L H) about 1937 ('n Pelton Sales order No. 31476. The reconstruction consisted of new waterwheels and new needle nozzles of the most modern type available in 1937. There has been very little improvement in the state of the art since 1937, so it can be assumed that the present design of the waterwheels and nozzles could only be slightly improved as far as efficiency goes. It might be possible to gain 1% or 2% but to secure any substantial increase such as 5% it would be necessary to install completely new turbines. Tests in April 1965 indicated that the turbine efficiency was a maximum of 58%, whereas Pelton W. W. Co. had expected approximately 84% or higher at the time of the 1937 reconstruction. Observations made by Smith on October 12, 1977 at the site (and calculations later) support the previous finding that the efficiency is approximately 58%. Page 14 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM Since all indications are that the water entering the turbines has suf- ficient pressure, velocity and volume to generate approximately 1900 kW per turbine at 80% turbine efficiency, it becomes a question why the units cannot produce more than approximately 1400 kW. Smith has discussed the 1965 tests with Messrs. D. J. Guild, Hiam Barmack, and Ben Hilyard, all engineers who participated in the 1965 tests. Mr. Guild (formerly of BLH) recalls that he was doubtful of the housing design at that time. Mr. Hilyard clearly recalls that records showed that the turbines had not reached anywhere near the level of output and efficiency predicted by the Pelton W. W. Co. in 1937, after installation of new wheels and nozzles. Mr. Franz Nagel, Manager of AEL&P Co., recalls that when he came with the company about 1947, he was told that the units never produced much more than the 1400 kW that they produce today. A 1938 annual report indicates the maximum load at Salmon Creek no. 2 was 3400 kW or 1700 kW per turbine generator unit. Some of the possible causes of the present low efficiency are listed below in the order of probability: I. The \Vater·wheel lower housing design is such that it redirects the water discharged from the buckets against the wheel in such a way as to act as a brake. The housing could be checked and modeled in a hydraulic laboratory to determine its exact effect on the turbine performance. Major reconstruction of the substructure is required to correct the housings. 2. The discharge passage from the wheel housing to the tail race may be choking up due to poor design, poor construction, obstructions which have blocked it or excessively high tail water relative to the wheel elevation. These points should be checked and the findings re- Page 15 1 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM viewed by an expert. Corrections should be made if required and possible. 3. There appears to be no air vent in the water wheel housing and the shaft enters through a stuffing box. Since admission of air equal to 30-50% of the water volume is required for turbines of this type, it may be that the supply through the discharge p~ssage is inade- quate. Such a condition could cause the wheel housing to remain partially filled with water during operation. A hole or holes could be cut in the sides of the wheel housings to test the air requirement and possibly im- prove performance, 4. The turbine nozzles could be misaligned with the wheel buckets or they could be obstructed in some way to cause a badly distorted jet, or the needles and seat rings could be badly deteriorated. These appear very remote possibilities since the nozzles were inspected at the time of the 1965 tests and reported to be in fair shape. It would be almost impossible for the nozzle conditon alone to cause a 25% foss i!·; efficiency, but their condition could be one contributing cause to an accumulation of other-efficiency losses. 1 5. The buckets could be in poor condition but the same inspection was made and the same comments apply as under 4 above. 1 6. The jet deflectors may be improperly adjusted and are continuously diverting a substant;al portion of the jet and/ or distorting the jet. This should be checked and the adjustment corrected, if necessary. 1 An October 28, 1977 inspection report states that items listed in 4, 5 and 6 above are in satisfactory condition. Page 16 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM 7. The Pelton W. W. Co. could have made an error of some kind in their wheel design or manufacture. This seems very unlikely, but it could be checked by an expert examination of the wheel or wheels. What is more likely is that Pelton W. W. Co. overlooked the effect of the original housing, lack of air venting and discharge passage configuration, and that this was such as to negate the expected improvement in performance from the 1937 wheels and nozzles. It would not appear to be prudent to recommend a second wheel and nozzle reconstruction until the cause of the failure of the first recon- struction to improve the performance is established. Time and normal wear and tear would degrade the initial efficiency and output achieved in 1937, but not to the extent of 25%. Also, there is evidence available that the expected efficiencies above 80% were not achieved initially in 1937 before wear and tear occurred. Since it appears that these turbines have not performed up to expecta- tions, even in 1913 1 it seems most likely that the housing is the basic cause, and of course the most difficult to correct, since it is largely embedded in the substructure of the powerhouse. This would imply that either a new turbine should be installed or the site abandoned in favor of a new location at tidewater" It is possible, but unlikely 1 that the present units can be made to produce substantially more power. Even if they could, the turbine shaft would constitute a possible point of fatigue failure and should be replaced or given an ultrasonic inspec- tion combined with a stress review before investing in any uprating of the units. Based on Mr. Smith's own experience, records and judgment, the exist- ing lower water wheel housings appear to be approximately I. 5' too narrow, 3' too short in the downstream dit'ection, and should have their full width carried to a level about 2' higher than the existing design Page 17 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM for optimum performance. Unfortunately, it is impossible to estimate exactly the lost efficiency due to the inadequate housing without lab- oratory tests. The best guess, based on D. C. Smith's observations, experience and judgment, as to the cause of the short fall in efficiency, and therefore output, is as follows: I. The original design embodies an inadequate waterwheel lower housing which has never been altered. Pelton W. W. Co. in 1937, to Smith's certain knowledge, had not yet realized the effect on efficiency of even a slightly inadequate housing 1 and consequently may have pre- dicted an improvement in efficiency which could not be obtained. This housing deficiency could easily reduce the turbine efficiency 10% and perhaps as much as the full 25%. 2. There has been a deterioration of the needle, nozzle, and buckets which reduces the efficiency perhaps 5% to 10%. 3. There may be mis-adjustment of the deflector which could reduce the efficiency anywhere from !% to the full 25%, but which is easily checked and corrected. It is possible that maladjustment existed at the time of the 1965 test. The adjustment was not checked and, there- fore, the loss incurred at that time, if any, is not known. 4. The lack of air vents and possible i:1adequate or blocked discharge passages to the tailrace could reduce efficiency by a substantial but unknown amount. Page 18 o SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM Taking 84% efficiency from the P. W. W. Co. Curve Sheet PF-5910-01 of 1937 as the maximum expected efficiency of one reconstructed unit operating alone and deducting 7. 5% for loss of efficiency due to wear and tear between 1937 and 1965, a period of 28 years, there should have been a test effiCiency of 76.5% in 1965. Since an efficiency of 58% was measured for each unit alone in 1965, there is a loss of approximately 20% which is not accounted for by wear and tear. Inherent housing design deficiency appears to be the cause of this deficiency although choking of the discharge passage or maladjustment may account for some of it. It does not appear possible to substantially increase the output of the turbines by merely replacing the wheel and nozzle. If another attempt at such an upgrading is undertaken, it should be based either on laboratory model tests which include the present housing design or on a reputable turbine manufacturer•s firm guarantee. Alternatively, the housing and discharge passages could be modified to match a new modern wheel and nozzle, in which case an initial efficiency of approx- imately 88% could be expected. Unfortunately, the turbine shaft may not prove adequate, after 65 years of service, to transmit 40% more power, and will introduce an unknown degree of risk. Taking everything into account it would appear that (I) the present units should be maintained at approximately their present output and efficiency, with the addition of new governors for unattended operation or (2) a single new high performance turbine-generator unit (the Chat- anika unit perhaps) should be installed at this site or (3) a new high performance turbine-generator unit should be installed at tidewater, combining the upper and lower plant heads, and the upper plant aban- doned. Page 19 . SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM Electrical Equipment The generators are General Electric Type ATB 1 Serial Nos. 659950 and 659951 1 rated 1750 kVA 1 0.8 PF 1 2300 volts and 257 RPM. If it is decided to keep the units in operation 1 maintaining the present output, but under remote supervisory control 1 the following should be done: I. The two generators should have their stators and rotors cleaned and reinsulated and a new static excitation system added. 2. Temperature type Remote Temperature Detectors (RTD's) and bearing thermocouples (as a minimum) could be installed, which would provide the remote operator some indication of unit temperature. 3. Cable ground protective relays could also be installed. 4. The switchgear (5 kV and low voltage), and the lighting and conduit systems are obsolete and should all be replaced. 5. A 125 volt d.c. battery system would be required for control and protection of the units. If the 1400 kW generators were rewound using the same size conductors and Class F type insulation, it would be possible to realize an increased unit capacity of approximately 25 per cent. However 1 this work would only be feasible if the turbine and penstock were of compatible capa bility. If the units were rewound, generator protective relays should be installed. The existing transformer banks appear to be in satis- factory condition. However 1 the transformers should be replaced if the generation capacities are increased. Page 20 , SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM If the existing 5 kV generator, line, and transformer breaker equipment is replaced, it is suggested that it would be desirable to size the new 5 kV metal-clad switchgear to match the rating of the combined upper and lower plant unit output, so that it could be reused in a future combined installation. The cost of the increased capacity would be minimal. It would also be possible to relocate and reuse the low voltage station service lighting, 125 volt d. c. battery system, and the super- visory control equipment as well. SALMON CREEK NO. I POWER PLANT (LOWER) This plant was closed down in 1974 because it was no longer econom- ically feasible to operate under conditions requiring full time operators and one generator being badly damaged requiring major repairs. With the reduced capacity of one unit, power could be purchased from Snettisham for less cost. Maintenance on the flume and penstock were discontinued and consequently have deteriorated to the point of being inoperative without major repairs or replacement. Mechanical Equipment The powerhouse contains one Yuba Mfg. Co. double nozzle double overhung ( DN DOH) horizontal shaft Pelton turbine and one Pelton W. W. Co., single nozzle, double overhung (SNDOH) horizontal Pelton turbine. Each turbine is fed by a separate penstock and has a bifur- cation followed by water wheel or hand operated gate valves for shut .. off. The Yuba turbine has a handwheel control on the two upper needle nozzles and simple fixed orifice lower nozzles. There is a Lombard Governor (Type M, No. 2064) controlling deflectors on all four nozzles. The turbine rating is said to be 2,500 H.P., 257 RPM with a head said to be about 350 feet. Page 21 . SECT ION II -EXISTING SYSTEM The Pelton W. W. Co. turbine has the same rating with hand control on both needle nozzles and with deflectors on both nozzles controlled by a Pelton 0-3 Governor No. 919. This plant normally was limited to an output of about 1200 kW by the quantity of water available which was restricted by the capacity of the flume and the turbines at the upper powerhouse. Mr. Franz Nagel does recall that the plant once produced 3200 kW with water diverted from side streams and released at the dam. This corresponds to 2 1 250 H.P. per turbine and approaches their rating. The turbines appear to have a better housing design than those at the upper plant and probably could reach their rated capacity if reconditioned and supplied with adequate water at the proper head. It is guessed that the turbine efficiency would be in the neighborhood of 70%, but this is based on speculation, and it could easily vary 5% or even more. The turbines could have new Woodward Governors installed for un- attended operation very easily. The turbines could probably be up- graded to improve their efficiency to at least 80% by replacing the water wheels and nozzles. It would be necessary to partly dismantle the turbines and closely inspect the wheels and nozzle parts before definite assurances could be given. The turbine shutoff valve~, would require modification for unattended operation of the plant since they are manu- ally operated or controlled. Electrical Equipment The generators are General Electric Type ATB, Serial Nos. 559331 and 695419, rated 1750 kVA, 0.8 PF, 2300 volts and 257 RPM. If the plant is reactivated, it will be necessary to completely rehabil- itate the generators, switchgear 1 and electrical auxiliary equipment 1 including conduit grounding and lighting systems. Page 22 , SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM The two generator stators need to be removed and rewound, new wedges and lashing rings made, and all reinsulated. The rotor coils appear to be in good condition; however, field coils need to be cleaned, dried out, and reinsulated after the long period of shutdown. The electrical switchgear 1 lighting, and conduit system should all be replaced. The grounding system should be checked 1 and items not grounded should be grounded. The total extent of the electrical work should be determined after a thorough review of the entire plant 1 and electrical work should be compatible with mechanical and civil features. DAM AND WATERWAYS Salmon Creek Dam The Bechtel Corporation reports of 1959 and 1966 and a May, 1977 Safety Inspection by James M. Montgomery, Consulting Engineers, Inc. were reviewed and a personal inspection of the dam was made on November 14, 1977 by Carl Steeby. The report on Safety Inspection, Project No. 2307 · Alaska, 1977 is included in Appendix A. The Salmon Creek Reservoir water surface was 6.0 feet below the spillway crest on 11-14-77. The temperature was 34°F and snowing heavily. A thin veneer of ice covered the downstream face of the dam with occasional release of large areas of ice making the toe inspection hazardous. The dam inspection revealed the Safety Inspection Report to be essentially correct with the following exceptions: a. Ice on the downstream face of the dam. This could have formed from freezing rain 1 sweat or from leaching. Page 23 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM b. The spillway area was clear of debris. Penstock -Dam to Powerhouse No. 2 The penstock, bridges and trestles were visionally inspected and appear to be in good condition. Two leaks were observed; one near the pen- stock station 9+30 and another near station 23+15 as shown on Figure No. 2. An ultrasonic thickness survey of the penstock was made in 1976 by James Montgomery, Consulting Engineers 1 Inc. and is incorporated in Appendix B of this report. Flume -Powerhouse No. 2 to Forebay above Powerhouse No. I The condition of the flume from powerhouse no. 2 to the forebay above powerhouse no. I is not good. The vertical alignment is extremely poor and the 2xl2 timber lining is deteriorating rapidly due to alternate wetting and drying from inoperation. The structural supports in the trestle areas are generally good. The timber cribbing under the sup- ports are in various stages of decay and should be replaced with con- crete. See figure No. 3 1 page 1!·7 for trestle details. The flume is considered inoperable in its present condition. Penstock -Forebay to Powerhouse No. I There are two penstocks leading from the forebay to powerhouse no. varying in diameter from 42 to 30 inches and each approximately 1625 feet in length. The south penstock is considered unsuitable for use and the north penstock could be put in service with considerable repair. Should it be desirable to rehabilitate powerhouse no. I, we recommend the installation of a new penstock of a diameter large enough for the installed capacity of the plant. An ultrasonic thickness survey was made on these penstocks by James Montgomery 1 Consulting Engineers, Inc. and is incorporated in Appendix B of this report. Page 24 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM Fore bay The entrance to the interior of the fore bay was locked, however 1 a visual inspection of the exterior revealed the forebay to be in relatively good condition. Serious consideration should be given to replacing the flume with a low pressure conduit and the forebay with a surge tank if powerhouse no. I is rehabilitated. INSPECTION OF CHATANIKA POWERHOUSE EQUIPMENT The powerhouse is about 30 miles north of Fairbanks next to a paved highway. The single unit was installed in 1959/1960 and operated until about 1966 1 according to Mr. Robert Hanson. Operation was only during the warm season as the water freezes in winter. About 1966 the water supply pipeline evidently collapsed and, since the operation was econ- omically marginal, it was not repaired and the penstock has since been scrapped. It would appear that this installation was based on question- able site conditions, although the circumstances are obscure. Mr. Robert Hanson's father is said to be part owner. His address is: Mr. Arnold Hanson P. 0. Box 943 APO San Francisco 96555 Telephone: c/o Martin-Zachary Co., Kwajalein Mr. Robert Hanson resides at 508 Lignite St., Fairbanks/ /\Iaska 99701, Telephone (home) 452-3438. The small concrete powerhouse contains one double nozzle 1 double overhung (DNDOH)1 horizontal shaft Pelton turbine, rated 6900 H.P. at 360 RPM under 529 ft. effective head, manufactured by the Pelton Divison of BLH Corp. in San Francisco under Serial No. 35352-1, and shipped in 1959. The successor company to B LH, with the records 1 drawings, and manufacturing rights is VOEST -ALPINE of Linz 1 Austria. An attempt will be made to obtain assembly drawings of this turbine. Page 25 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM The turbine is fed by two pipes of 30 11 diameter, entering horizontally through the side wall of the powerhouse above the units and with two manually operated 3011 Darling Gate Valves. The four nozzles have needles controlled by motor operators (Pelton) and with four deflectors, governed by a centrally located Woodward Governor Company gate shaft governor type LR-10500, No. 518605, size 8-~ x 12. The nozzles have stainless seat rings with an orifice diameter of approximately 7'17.11 and stainless steel needles of the modern 60° type. The wheels have 51zu No. 10 Pelton Buckets, which are of high efficiency. The buckets are 19\t11 wide inside and have been weld repaired to a minor degree on the entrance lip surface with stainless steel. The buckets and needle show slight erosion. The seat ring and deflector edges are smooth and in good shape. The inspection of buckets and nozzles was confined to the lower nozzle and bottom buckets of the left hand wheel {looking down- stream) 1 which is the only one accessible in a short period of inspection and without dismantling the turbine. It is reasonable to assume that the condition of these parts is representative of all the buckets and nozzles. The external appearance of the shaft, bearings, housing and linkage is very good. The shaft is greased, all parts are painted and the local climate is very dry. It is Smith's opmton that this turbine would probably, (but not cer- tainly) be capable of being dismantled and reinstalled without any major problems or reconstruction. There is a possibility that a major com- ponent such as the waterwheel, the shaft or the generator rotor is flawed, but this is highly unlikely. It would require sophisticated non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques to determine that no such flaws exist. The governor can be easily converted for unattended operation by Woodward Governor Company. Page 26 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM The generator was made by Elliot Co. of Ridgeway 1 Pa. and carries the following nameplate data; which seems to contain an error since 6 1 250 kVA x .8PF = 5,000 kW, not 5,625 kW. 6250 kVA 4160 Volts 868 Amps 3 Phase 60° c Rise Status by 60° c Rise Rotor by 145 Exc. Amps Serial No. IS-10949 5625 kW 360 RPM .8 P.F. 60 Cycles Detector Resistance 250 Exc Volts The generator, switchgear and transformers appear to be in good condition 1 but no close inspection was made. The turbine has a relatively high specific speed for a Pelton type and the efficiency would probably be 87% at peak with efficiencies exceeding 85% from about 40% rated capacity to 100% capacity. The turbine will require a flow of approximately 135 cfs to develop 6900 H. P. (5, 000 Generator kW) under an effective head of 529 feet. Records which are in Smith's possession indicate that the shaft design was very conservative and that the turbine could be operated at as high an output as 8,500 H. P. without exceeding the Pelton Div. design stress limits. Operation at 8,500 H. P. would require an effective head of 607 ft. and a flow of 148 cfs. Such an uprating would be the maximum which could be recommended and would involve some risk of shaft fatigue failure unless ultra-sonic shaft inspection was made to give assurance of its freedom from flaws. The risk should be considered minimal but cannot be ignored. There will also be a small drop in efficiency at the higher head because the unit will no longer be operating at design or optimum Page 27 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM relative speed (phi) of the wheel peripheral velocity to the jet velocity. This efficiency drop should be in the order of 2%, for the change in head, plus the usual change in efficiency due to change in load. The two turbine wheels are integral castings, including wheel disc and buckets, apparently of mild steel, and presumably were given the normal high standard of inspection and workmanship for which Pelton Div. had a very high reputation. Normally, these wheels are expected to have a life of approximately 10-20 years of operation with clean water, of which perhaps five years has been expended, allowing for start-up in 1960, shut-down in 1966 and operation only in the warmer months of spring, summer and fall. Additional information received subsequent to the field inspection includes an up rating design report on the Chatani ka turbine by the Pelton Division of Baldwin-Lima-Hamilton and the Chatanika turbine assembly drawing from VOEST-Aipine; successors to B-L-H. With this additional information, it was possible to identify several modifications which will be necessary to safely relocate this turbine as follows: 1. The runaway speed at 725 ft. static head may reach 760 RPM, which exceeds the generator :Jesign maximum ~-afe runavvay sreed of 720 RPM. This is considered unsafe design practice, and the generator rotor should be modified or replaced. 2. The inlet valves are 30 11 size, of cast iron, manually operated. The valves were originally given a hydrostatic shell test of 400 psi (924 ft.) and seat test of 350 psi (808 ft.). These test pressures are considered too low for safe design practice and should be at least 150% of the 725ft. max. static head or 1088 ft. (471 psi). It is very doubtful that the de~>ign is adequate for this higher pres- sure and since remote operation would have to be added in any case, one large ( 42 11 or 36 11 ) or two smaller (30 11 ) valves with proper rating should be purchased to replace these valves. Care Page 28 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM must be taken to check the adequacy and match the downstream companion flanges if the smaller valves (3011 ) are chosen. 3. The turbine has two inlet wye pipes (bifurcations) and these are inadequately designed for the new higher head. They will require reinforcement at the crotch section. They were originally tested at 355 psi (820 ft.) and were designed for 547 ft. head. After reinforcement, they should be tested at 741 psi. This will repre- sent an increase of 33% over the design and there is a possibility of leaks or even failure at test. 4. The four needle nozzles are of cast steel construction, heavier than was originally necessary due to either an existing pattern or design being adopted. They should be able to stand the higher test pressure except that the nozzle seat ring bolts are inadequate and the nozzle tips must be drilled and tapped for additional bolts. The seat rings must be drilled correspondingly. 5. The governor capacity is stated to be 11 marginal but should be adequate.11 The possibility that it will be inadequate is remote but does increase the risk of runaway speed, mentioned in No. 1 above. The turbine rotating parts and bearings present no problems if the generator is limited to 6,000 kW, corresponding to the original overload design rating of the turbine and generator. Of course all the usual risks of operating used machines at higher outputs than previously obtained do apply. Ultrasonic inspection of the shaft is recommended as well as regular periodic wheel inspections. Page 29 SECTION II -EXISTING SYSTEM An estimate of the comparative costs of a new horizontal Francis turbine 1 and the Chatanika turbine follow: 1 2 1. New Turbine/Generator (5000 kW) New Francis turbine and generator Installation Foundation 2. Chatanika Turbine Purchase turbine Dismantle and ship Reinstall Foundations Modify turbine and test Contingencies Rebuild and install generator2 New inlet valve $750,000 35,000 65,000 $850,000 $400,000 70,000 50,000 100,000 25,000 60,000 200,000 50,000 $955,000 Such a unit would have a peak efficiency about 3-5% higher and would be designed and guaranteed for this application. Assuming rebuilding to handle increased runaway speed is feasible. Page 30 SECTION Ill PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS 3.1 Employment In Juneau, 1975-2000 The basis for the electrical load growth forecasts developed for this report are forecasts of employment for the State of Alaska as a whole, the Southeast region and the City and Borough of Juneau. These forecasts are summarized in Table 3-1. Base year totals fat~ aggregative statewide and regional employment, and for state and federal government employment have been compiled from Alaska Department of Labor data. Data for 1975 are used because more consistent supplementary data series are available for that year, and because 1975, versus 1976, reflects lesser transient impacts of Alyeska Pipeline construction. Employment forecasts from 1975 through 1990 are based on forecasts prepared by the University of Alaska 1 Institute for Social and Economic Research, 11 Man in the Arctic Progt~am 11 (MAP) econometric model. Forecasts from 1990 through 2000 are linear extra- polations of trends established by MAP. These extrapolations, by their nature, assume successively declining annual growth rates. These base data assume that Juneau will remain the capital of Alaska. For purposes of this study, state and federal employment in Alaska and the Southeast region are assumed to remain ln their 1975 ratios to the total statewide and regional labor forces. Juneau's total employment, and state and federal government employment, are projected from the 1975 base year. Ur:der the assumption that the capital will remain in Juneau, the city's state and federal employment is projected to increase irl direct proportion to forecast growth of total statewide employment, with its corollary increase in the state and federal Page 31 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS work force. For this forecast, it is assumed that Juneau's percentage share of state and federal employment in Alaska will remain at its 1975 level. This forecast, assuming no capital move, is similar in result to one prepared for the City and Borough of Juneau by Homan Associates in 1972~ Under the assumption that the capital will be removed from Juneau, state and federal employment in Juneau are nevertheless projected to increase by about 20% through 1980. Beyond 1980, such employment in Juneau is held constant at its 1980 level. As a result, this projection indicates that from 1980 through 1985 a total of 1000 state and federal jobs, which, with the capital, would have been located in Juneau, will instead be located elsewher·e. By 1990, 1200 such jobs will be displaced from Juneau, with the figure increasing to 4000 jobs by 2000. State and federal employment in Juneau in 1975 comprised 12.9% of total state and federal employment in Alaska. The 11 no-growth 11 assumption for Juneau 1 s government labor force beyond 1980 results in 7. 2% of such jobs being located in Juneau in 2000. Because Juneau 1 s state and federal labor force is the key variable in determining total employment in the community, the assumption that this labor force will not decline with the removal of the capital is of critical importance to the succeeding projections of population and electrical load. According to a recent study of state and federal employment in Juneau, prepared for the City and Borough of Juneau by Homan- McDowell Associates, 75% of all state and government jobs in Juneau in 1975 were based on 11 central 11 or statewide functions, the remaining 25% had regional or local functions. It is reasonable to assume that these jobs would be optimally located in the new capital city rather than Juneau r assuming the capital were moved. However, the ability to relocate these positions depends on the development of new facilities to ilccorn- modate them, plus infrastructure to support related population, at the new capital site. Development of the new capital site has not begun in early 1978, and major funding for such development cannot be author- Page 32 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS ized prior to the 1978 legislative session, with subsequent approval of bond issues as required in the fall of 1978. The capital move initiative requires relocation of key government functions to the new capital site by the end of 1980, however. It is considered virtually impossible that development of the capital site, facilities and infrastructure can advance sufficiently to accommodate more than a skeleton force of state govern- ment personnel in the two years of development time available through 1980. On the other hand growth of state and federal employment is projected to continue through 1980 1 with the addition of approximately 6200 positions over the 1975 level. Over 900 of these positions had been added to the Juneau labor force through the end of 1976i this study projects the addition of another 800 through 1980. Therefore, although key legislative 1 executive and judicial functions may vacate Juneau by the end of 1980, it is expected that facilities will be unavail- able to accommodate a sufficient number by that time to significantly affect normal growth of Juneau•s labor force. The long term assumption made for this study, that state and federal employment in Juneau will not decline after 1980 is defensible partly on the same grounds as the short term projection. The initial forecast of new capital site development, prepared in 1974 1 , projected that the site would accommodate a state and federal labor force of 'lpproximate!y 3000 by 1985, following at least seven years of development. This projection is considered reasonable, although long term projections by the same group are unduly low. However 1 through 1985, state and federal employment in Alaska, at a constant ratio of total employment, is expected to increase by 8200 positions over its 1980 !eve! and 14400 positions over 1975. Therefore, additional facilities must be developed to accommodate 11400 new positions in permanent or interim state and 1 Boeing Computer Services, Naramore Bain, Brady and Johanson "Alaska Capital Site Relocation Study", 1974. Page 33 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS federal facilities in additon to the labor force housed at the new capital site, assuming Juneau's facilities are fully utilized. The fiscal require- ments for providing new facilities will be very substantial; therefore, it is probable that the vacating of existing facilities at Juneau in favor of interim facilities at a point nearer the new capital, say Anchorage, will be regarded as an undue expense, and a possible retardant to develop- ment of the new capital site itself. From 1985 through 2000 this same factor is expected to be present and to deter a net relocation of state and federal employment from Juneau. From 1975 through 2000, substantial growth is expected in the popu- lation of Southeast Alaska, resulting in the expectation that increasing numbers of the Juneau government work force will be identified with regional functions. Based on the 1975 total of about 1100 Juneau positions which had local or regional functions in 1975, total involvement of Juneau personnel in such functions could be expected to total 2300 in 2000, assuming the capital were moved and that no greater central- ization of Southeast governmental functions were to take place in Juneau. Centralization could add substantial numbers of personnel from the 11,100 person state and federal labor force projected for southeast Alaska in 2000. If Juneau's state and federal employment were identified primarily with regional functions in 2000, Juneau's goven1rnent employ·· ment, at the 5,100 level constant since 1980, would make up 46% of the government work force in southeast Alaska. This is consistent with the precedent of Anchorage's present role as a regional government center; in 1975, 38% of all state employment excluding that in southeast Alaska, was located in Anchorage. The expectation of similar< regional central~ ization is not unreasonable for Juneau. In addition to the demand for Juneau's government facilities to accom- modate state and federal employment in general, and expected orowth and centralization of southeast regional government in Juneau, the political influence of the southeast region's legislative delegation is expected to be a significant force in maintaining a constant !<:wei of Page 34 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS state employment in Juneau beyond 1980. This influence is expected to be particularly strong in the legislative bargaining for appropriations and bond authorizations to develop the new capital site. It is con- sidered virtually certain that southeast legislators' votes will be required for this purpose and that part of their price will be maintenance of Juneau as a viable segment of the regional economy. Beyond the government sector in Juneau 1 s economy, a growth rate averaging 2. 5% annually is forecast for non-government employment in Juneau from 1985 through 2000. This is consistent with the forecast increase in total southeast region employment for the period 1975-2000. However, no net growth is forecast in Juneau's private sector from 1980 through 1985 due to the expected adverse impact of the capital move on business expectations. It is expected that the timber industry, in the form of logging in largely unharvested northern portions of Tongass National Forest and on A. N.C. S. A. -selected timberlands, will be a modest stimulus to Juneau 1s resident labor force and commerce in the 1980 1 s and 1990's. It is also expected that timber milling and other small to mid-scale industrial and commercial ventures by Sealaska Corp- oration will at least partly center on Juneau during the same period. Although Juneau is no longer one of Alaska's major fishing ports, it is expected that her fishing industry will benefit from r·ecovery of coastal fish stocks, which should follow controlled harvesting of the 200 mile coastal fishing zone. Continued growth of tourism is also expected to be a noticeable factor in Juneau's economy in the 1980's and 1990's. It is expected that these elements will be sufficient to maintain the pro- jected stow rate of growth in Juneau's relatively small private sector through 2000. Certainly there are major developments which could contribute to substantial redevelopment of Juneau's economy after a capital move. Of these 1 the most probable is a surface connection to the Haines and/or Skagway Highway termini with a short ferry link across Lynn Canal. Although much more speculative, it is not incon- ceivable that consolidation of major tracts of ANCSA-selected timber could form the 4-6 billion board foot raw materials base for development Page 35 SECTION II I -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS of the southeast region's third pulp mill at a site near Juneau. Develop- ment of the Klukwan iron deposits, for which incentive will increase in the 1980's with depletion of Japan's alternative iron ore sources, could also strengthen Juneau's economy via its role as the transportation, trading and administrative center of northern southeast Alaska. Finally, a major hydroelectric-industrial scheme in the Yukon, on the Pelly or upper Yukon Rivers --in which there is continuing Canadian and American interest --could similarly reinforce Juneau's secondary economy. Therefore, the employment forecast used for the forecasts in this report is considered a conservative base line for future development. 3.2 Juneau's Population, 1975-2000 Population forecasts for the City and Borough of Juneau through 2000 are summarized in Table 3-2. Because of the dominance of state and federal employment in Juneau's economy, the major criterion for ~population forecasting in this study has been the projection of such employment. This is consistent with the overall characteristics of population growth forecasting in Alaska. The state's population as a whole, except for isolated native centers, is centered on major labor markets. Alaska's small mobile population, immature economy, and its relatively unattractive subsistence lifestyles render other population growth factors, such as natural increase, almost insignificant. For the purpose of estimating Juneau's population based on employment projections, a labor force participation rate of 50% was used through 2000. This corresponds to the present rate in Juneau, and is higher than the average 46% rate for Alaska's other· major population centers due to the very high participation of women in government labor force. The use of this rate through 2000 may somewhat understate population relative to projected employment after 1985 1 as state and federal employ- Page 36 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS ment diminishes as a percentage of total labor force. However, such employment is still projected at 38% of Juneau's total in 2000 versus 47% in 1975, about 180% of the average rate for the state as a whole. Therefore, the resulting forecasting error in population should be quite small. The resulting population forecasts show increases of 12.5% through 1985, and 39.5% through 2000. 3.3 Power and Energy Forecasts, 1975-2000 Power and energy forecasts for the AELP system through 2000 are summarized in Table 3-3. These forecasts are based on population projections in the preceding section of this reporL Recent system history has been provided by AELP and for earlier years beginning in 1960 has been extracted from AELP's annual reports to the Federal Power Commission. 1 The forecasting methodology uses residential electricity sales as a base line, with residential hookup saturation set at 27% for reported total area population, which is consistent with AELP's recent experience (see Table 3-5), and also with forecasting guidelines for southeast Alaska set out in the University of Alaska's 1976 report 11 Electric Power in Alaska 11 • 2 ~ Total area population is used instead of the population of the AELP service <-lre<l,. reflecting the assumption that the GHEA service area will remain a relatively small percentage of total population and electrical load. Annual electricity consumption per residential customer is also based on trends in consumption in southeast Alaska established by the University of Alaska study cited above. Guideline data from that study are adjusted to reflect the somewhat lower historical consumption of AELP's residential customers, this charac- teristic is believed to result from a relatively high pe1~centage of multi- 1 2 Federal Power Commission, For 12A "Power System Statement, 1960-1974. University of Alaska, Institute for Social and Economic Research, Anchorage, "Electric Power in Alaska", 1975, prepared for the Alaska State Legislature. Page 37 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS family residential buildings in AELP's service area, and the high labor force participation of residents which restricts household electricity used during much of the day. However, consistent with the guideline trend, which has a broad base of comparative system experience, per- customer consumption is expected to increase about 49% through 2000. Commercial sales are forecast as two-thirds of residential sales, corres- ponding to AELP's historical ratio. This is a somewhat more rapid increase than would be obtained from forecasting this load as a function of private sector employment for the period of record; however, it is believed it better reflects the probability of increasing energy use per job which is common in private firms as new appliances improve prod- uctivity. Industrial load is forecast as constant at its 1975 level. This forecast is probably unduly conservative, but because the data reflects one customer in one industry and because it is relatively small, it was not considered worthwhile to speculate on future changes. Government load is forecast as directly proportional to employment. This is more conservative than the forecast used for the commercial sector, and reflects the assumpticms both that energy conservation will be more strictly practiced in government than in business, and that government will be less sensitive to potential energy-related increases in productivity. Therefore, under the capital move assumption, govern- ment sales are constant from 1980 through 2000. Street lighting is forecast as a constant rate per unit population. These forecasts indicate a rapid increase in electricity sales through 2000, under the assumption that the capital remains in Juneau, resulting in an overall 270% increase in sales over 1976 by the year 2000. A much more modest rate of increase is projected under the assumption that the capital is moved, reaching 170% of the 1976 level in 2000. Page 38 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS Net energy for system and peak demand are projected based on sales, as summarized in Table 3-4. Net energy for system is based on a continuing ratio of 6.8% system losses and non-revenue uses through 2000, representing average AELP losses since 1960. Peak demand is based on net energy for system, which is assumed equal to net energy for load during the forecast period, using a system load factor of 53% which again corresponds to recent AELP experience and is consistent with system load factors for other utilities which serve only minor industrial loads. Page 39 v Q) (Q CD .j::>. 0 -------···--·-~-·---· ---- TABLE 3-1 EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA, THE SOUTHEAST REGION AND JUNEAU 1975 -2000 SOUTHEAST JU!';f'4U Statewide With Capital Without Ca~itill With CapH_~ ~ ~ Government Total Government ~ Govnrnment Total Government 1975 1 157,350 33,025 22,337 6,615 22,337 6,615 9,148 4,266 -,geo '18G,700 2 39,200 29,500 2 8,700 29,500 8,700 10,800 5,100 1385 225,600 47,400 35,200 10' 400 33,700 9,400 13' 100 6,100 1990 255,800 55,800 39,100 11,600 35,900 ~. :-.·,c 15,500 7,200 1 ()95 299,900 62,900 45,500 13,500 41,000 10,500 17,400 8,100 2000 336,400 70,700 51 '100 15,100 45,100 11,100 19,GC~ 9,100 Source: Ala~kil Department or Labor·, Juneau. Sour~e: university of Alaska, Institute for Social and Economic Re~..::.t•ch, An<:horaoc. V/i il:!§ll!_£.~.~ Total Government 9,148 4,266 10,800 5,100 10,800 5,100 11,500 5,100 12,400 s, 100 13,400 5,100 (/I m () ~ 0 z !(c-o :::0 ,o 0'-:Em mo :::0~ ':::o g; m .o, co -, :::Oc mr 3\::p m~ z_ ~0 (flz 1 Source: 2 Source: 3 Source: SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS TABLE 3-2 JUNEAU AREA POPULATION 1960-2000 Juneau Area Year , Population 1 --Record-- 1960 9,745 1961 10,462 1962 10,298 1963 10,598 1964 11,908 1965 12,415 1966 13,227 1967 13,710 1968 13,200 1969 13,300 1970 13,556 1971 14,564 1972 15,079 1973 16,593 1974 17,195 1975 '18,310 1976 19,193 --FORECAST-- No Capital Capital Move 2 Move 3 1980 21,600 21,600 1985 26,200 21,600 1990 31,000 23,000 1995 34,800 24,800 2000 39,200 26,800 Alaska Department of Laoor, City and Borough of Juneau. 1980-1995 City and Borough of .Juneau 2000 by Kent Miller. 1980 City and Borough of Juneau 1985-2000 by Kent Miller. Page 41 TABLE 3-3 SECTION III ALASKA ELECTRIC LIGHT & POWER co. SALES OF ELECTRICITY 1 1960-2000 RESIDENTIAL Annual Sales Year Customers Total Per Customer Commercial Industrial Government (No.} (Megawatt Hours -MWh -except as noted} 1960 2,619 2 13,116 2 4,637 6,390 4,982 1961 2,966 14,179 4,764 9,129 5,449 1962 3,079 1.S,639 5,144 10,089 5,132 1963 3,233 16,599 5,134 10,983 5,800 1964 3,330 171193 5,163 12,507 6,803 1965 3,442 18,107 5,261 13,287 6,329 1966 3,523 19,000 5,393 14,005 7,889 1967 3,584 19,263 5,375 13,680 9,511 1968 3,588 20,047 5,587 14,181 11,301 1969 3,725 21,363 5,735 13,341 1,107 12,577 1970 3,843 23,034 5,994 14,502 1,211 13,542 1971 4,214 24,563 5,629 16,133 11189 13,927 1972 4,442 26,009 6,305 17,498 1,013 15,327 1973 4,678 30,296 6,477 22,039 1,143 16,398 1974 4,743 31,875 6,720 20,224 1,143 17,545 1975 5,065 4 33,864 6,666 24,532 1,145 22,006 1976 5,330 36,166 6,785 25,476 1,081 25,754 Forecast 1976-2000, assuming capital is not moved 7 1980 5,800 s 42,900 7,400 6 28,600 1,100 29,800 1985 7,100 57,500 6,100 36,300 1,100 35,200 1990 8,400 73,100 6,700 48,700 1,100 42,?00 1995 9,~00 8S,40G 9,400 53,980 1,100 50,6('0 2000 10,600 107,100 10,100 711400 1,100 61,3QO Forecast 1976·2000, assuming capital is moved 1 1980 5,800 42,900 7,400 26,600 1 '100 29,800 1985 5,800 47,000 8,100 31,300 1,100 29,800 1990 6,200 53,900 6,700 35,900 1,100 29,600 1985 6,700 63,000 9,400 42,000 1,100 29,800 2000 7,200 72,700 10,100 48,5CO '1, 100 29,800 1 Source: 1960-1974 Federal Power Commission, Form 12A, 197':>·1976 AELP Annual Budget Dcta. 2 1960·61 residential customers and sales include rural. 3 Prior to 1965 street lighting is included wltr1 government. 4 1975-76 hookup saturation is computed In ,;ppendix A. -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS Street Total Lighting ~ 26,490 28,757 31,060 33,382 36,503 889 36,612 899 41,793 899 43,353 817 46,346 836 49,224 782 53,071 741 56,553 734 62,581 715 69,451 - 695 71,482 787 82,336 705 88,902 800 103,1::00 1,000 133,100 1,200 166,300 'i,~OO 1S5,soo 1,500 241::,400 800 103,200 600 110,000 900 121,600 900 136,800 1,000 153,100 5 Residential customers based on population forecast included in this report, and hookup sacur<>tion rates projected ln Universitv of Al~ska, Alaska Power Study, 1976. 6 Projected sales per customer based on Alaska Power Study- 7 These projections are considered extremely conservative as AELP sales in 1977 were 96,658 MWh and the utility is forecasting a total sales in 1976 of 106,000 MWh. Page 42 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS TABLE 3-4 ALASKA ELECTRIC LIGHT & POWER CO SALES OF ELECTRICITY, GENERATION AND PEAK DEMAND 1960-2000 Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Total Sales MWh 26,490 28,757 31,060 33,382 36,503 38,612 41,793 43,353 46,346 49,224 53,071 56,553 62,581 69,451 71,482 82,336 88,902 Net Energy for System MWh 27,541 30,374 32,792 34,487 38,674 40,638 45,011 46,320 49,293 52,126 55,836 59,787 66,496 70,295 80,043 88,300 1 95,400 1 Peak Losses g 0 3.5 5.3 5.3 3.2 5.6 5.6 7.1 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.9 1.2 10.7 6.8 2 6.8 Forecast 1976-2000, assuming capital is not moved 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 103,200 133,100 166,300 195,300 242,500 110,700 142,800 178,400 209,500 260,000 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Forecast 1976-2000 1 assuming capita! is moved 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 103,200 110,000 121,600 136,800 153,100 110,700 118,000 130,500 146,800 164,300 1 Estimated, data source incomplete. 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 2 Based on 1960-1976 trend in system losses. 3 Based on 1960-1976 trend in system load factor. System Load Demand Factor MW % 5,837 7,750 7,056 91044 9,424 10,023 11,370 10,510 11 145 11,820 13,010 14,420 15,400 16,220 16,870 19,000 1 19,400 1 23,800 30;800 38r400 45,100 561000 23,800 25;400 28,100 31,600 35,400 52.9 51.1 53.2 53.3 57.1 53.1 56.1 53.0 3 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 Page 43 SECTION Ill -PROJECTED POPULATION & POWER REQUIREMENTS TABLE 3-5 AEL&P SERVICE AREA RESIDENTIAL HOOKUP SATURATION 1975-1976 1975 1976 Total Population 18,310 19,193 (Less) Auke Bay (1,292) (1,318) Lynn Canal (466) (479) Total AELP Area: 16,552 17,396 AELP Customers 4,743 5,065 Saturation (Service Area) 28.7% 29.6% (Total Population) 25.9% 26.4% Page 44 SECTION IV HYDROLOGY The basic hydrologic data and methodology used in the 1966 Bechtel Report was used to update the natural inflow into the Salmon Creek Reservoir. Since only 23 months of natural flow records were available at the Salmon Creek damsite prior to the construction of the dam, a synthetic flow was developed for the period between 1946 and 1964. Because Sheep Creek has a drainage basin similar in size and physical characteristics to Salmon Creek, and because it has the longest period of recorded unregulated flows in the vicinity, it was chosen to provide a basis for synthesizing Salmon Creek flow. To determine the conversion factors to be applied to Sheep Creek flows to obtain Upper Salmon Creek flows, a nondimensional plot in cfs/sq. mi. was made by Bechtel allowing a comparison of Sheep Creek against all other data available which might assist in their determination. For the final determination of the conversion factors to determine the Salmon Creek flows, the ratio of drainage areas was used for flows iess than 700 cfs at Sheep Creek and a somewhat greater conversion was used for greater flows. The methodology used by Bechtel was reviewed and adopted to extend the synthetic flow record of Salmon Creek through the 1972-1973 water year. The Sheep Creek gage was removed in 1973 and no attempt was made to extend the synthetic record beyond 1973 by correlation with another gaged stream. The adopted flows for Salmon Creek are shown on Table 4-1. A mass hydrograph was drawn fr-om the lnformaticn an Table 4-1 and the regulated flow was determined to be 54.2 cfs during the 28 year study period. The mean annual flow for the period is 66.1 cfs. Page 45 -··---··-··--·--· -·· SYNTHETIC INFLOW* ·SALMON CREEK RESERVOIR ACRE·FECT W~ter ~ .Q£1 ~ Dec Jan Feb !1!!.::. ~ t:.'!!!1. ~ ~ ~ §!2.! I.2!!!! 1947 5,500 6,100 650 620 280 3,080 3,280 7,630 7,500 4,900 4,250 12,900 56,690 78.3 19,8 6,300 6,240 1, 770 1,300 650 200 0 7,830 G,990 8,250 3,720 9,20~ 52,450 72.4 1949 5,9SC 8,000 750 630 240 7~0 1,700 7,300 12,100 8,300 700 4,900 51,310 70.9 1950 7.150 7,100 1,080 230 10 0 140 3,830 5,530 5,580 3,680 5,050 39,380 54.4 1951 2, 770 430 440 30 so 120 10' 700 5,350 3,050 2,G20 34,540 47.7 1 952 2,320 950 230 110 140 900 9,800 8,000 4,700 9,000 44,280 61.2 1953 8,050 1,480 580 450 120 1,500 7,400 5,550 5, 10il 5,650 48,610 67. 1!)54 ::,:.90 1, 720 820 1,240 340 z.;o 6,250 4,810 2,170 3,090 34,350 47.4 19S5 4,000 4, 3,500 990 540 360 3GO 7,600 6,470 8,500 4,810 44,210 til. 1 1956 3,550 1 t 84~ 350 70 10 0 270 8,3130 5,500 4,650 7,850 3,890 35,360 50.2 1%7 4,100 5,100 3,850 1,450 330 70 660 5,100 7,690 5,000 2,430 4,400 40,100 55.5 195& 2,9~0 4,220 1,120 1 '700 420 280 1,480 5,900 5,390 3,900 4,280 3,080 34,810 48.. 1 1%!) 7,250 2,G?O 1, 7[;0 790 420 510 1,070 5,280 8,800 9,100 6,840 3,780 49,2~0 ee.o 1;)G0 4,290 3,000 1,930 ')20 550 soo 1,670 5,750 7,401J 91G::,o 9,100 9,000 53,71;.0 74 '3 ''361 'J 1 G50 5,140 3,000 1,490 1 ,0~0 S,GOO 2,270 7,700 8,500 1,3U5 12,C30 5,120 64,425 80' 0 '::c2 ::J,480 2, 720 sao -:In so 1,1-<0 590 1,570 4,910 11, soo 5,590 5,800 11,050 58,090 80.2 i9G3 5,750 4,120 4,000 2,500 3,320 2,020 1,310 5,G30 e,.:so 8,380 3,800 4,~80 54,260 74. ~ 1se4 7,B20 2,250 3,280 1,920 1,750 790 2,250 7,400 181 :·10 13,770 S, 100 3,100 67,570 93.3 3,9CO 4,000 2,1350 4,120 930 1,470 1,990 3,~00 91590 7,470 3,810 3,960 4~,~90 G9.0 1::lCG 7,C80 1,e4o , ,280 GOO 420 e5o 2,340 9,700 7,000 5,650 50,9~0 70.4 (f) 1957 5,700 2,310 leO 800 St.O 500 520 9,020 G,620 5,930 44,630 ~1.6 m )%3 1, 7!)0 5, 31C· 2,230 7,050 •100 2,820 1,820 5,510 4,130 7,380 45,0t.O 62.2 n 1%9 S,310 2,200 1,390 600 330 1,410 7,5GO 9,0GO <;, 150 45,720 63.2 -I 1970 3 .. 790 5,6><0 3,630 1,060 ,970 1,660 1,500 9,120 8,980 7,730 5G,430 77.9 -0 1971 9.060 2,720 940 1.350 960 820 830 4,6CO 9,070 8,630 5,840 5,490 50,320 69. s z 1972 4,850 2,830 730 420 280 soo 530 5,330 8,930 8,420 7,110 €.440 4G,370 6~.0 1973 5,050 2,020 1,000 670 550 520 1,330 4,590 5,590 5,540 6,880 <ago 38,860 53.7 < Avg. AC/Ft: 5,913 3,753 1,754 1,082 778 954 1,227 5,396 8,494 6,835 5,370 5,825 47,8.:S2 Avg. cfs: 96.1 S3.1 2G.5 17.6 14.0 15.5 20.6 95.9 142.8 111.2 87.3 97.9 B6.1 :c -< A Correlation wlth Sheep Creek~ 0 ., Sh.:~p c,-~cl.. o~oc removtd In Octo!>c:-1973. TABLE NO. <1-1 ;::o 0.1 0 c.o r f!) 0 ~ G) Q) -< SECTION IV -HYDROLOGY A mass hydrograph is a cumulative plotting of net reservoir inflow for the period of years of record. The slope of the curve at any time is a measure of the inflow rate at that time. If the curve is horizontal, the inflow is zero. The slope of a line connecting any two points on the curve is a measure of the average flow during that period. Demand curves representing a uniform rate of demand are straight lines having a slope equal to the demand rate. Demand lines drawn tangent to the high points of the mass curve represent rates of withdrawal from the reservoir. Assuming the reservoir to be full wherever a demand line intersects the mass curve, the maximum departure between the demand line and the mass curve represents the reservoir capacity to satisfy demand. If the demand is not uniform, the demand line becomes a curve but the analysis is not changed. Knowing the Salmon Creek reservoir capacity, the mass hydrograph may be used to determine the yield which may be expected. in this case tangents are drawn to the high points of the mass curve (11-1-53 to 1-1-59) in such a manner that the maximum departure from the mass curve does not exceed the reservoit~ capacity of 18,000 acre-feet. The slope of the resulting line indicates a yield of 54.2 cfs can be attained. The slope of the line from the beginning (12-1-46) to the r'nd of record period (10-1-73) indicates a uniform rate of demand or average inflow of 66.1 cfs and a reservoir capacity of 70,535 acre-feet 'Vou!d be required to satisfy this demand. Firm power, or primary power, is theoretically the power which a hydroelectric plant may be depended upon to produce at all times. Firm power is not necessarily produced continuously. However·, the total amount of primary power in kilowatt-hours which can be produced by the hydro plant is limited to the minimum flow as regulated by available storage. Secondary power is all of the available power in excess of the firm pov,/er. Page 47 405t)(JtJ J 6 5t)(JO ...... llt ~ la.... 3 ~51)()() 7..850M ~ .-f/5C(Jti , ~0 5 000 lU ~ <..J ~ /6 !JOO() 1~.501)() 85000 4 sooo 5000 MASS HYPROGRAPH SAirMON CREEK RESERVOIR. SHE 1!1 I tJF' 3 r:> J F MA 1t1 J JAsON r:>IJ F MA M J JAsoN ojv f M A MJ JAsoN DIJ F MA M J J As oND JF M AM JJA soN oiJ F MAMJ JAsoN olu F' MAM J J As DN DIJ F /'II A MJ JA s ori DIJ F MA M J JA.s I l'f-17 /'r-18 1'1-1'1 1950 I 1'151 J'15X. 1'153 /Cf54 1'155 1- LJ Lu u_ 8osooo 76SOO() 71-.SODO 685000 6"15"000 '605000 kJ ~ u oq:: S6SOOO 51..$000 .f/8 50(}() ~J/sooa "13AJ,S'S'I 18,ooo Ac.-Fr. 5-rDRAG£ MASS HYDROGRAPH SALMON CREE.f< RESERVOIR SHEE.T :< OF 3 4 o s ooo O':'N D J F ~AM J J A S D H D J F lr\ A M J J AS 0 N D J F M A II\ J v A o o N D u P h\A Nl J J AS D N D J PM AM J J A S 0 N P J F' M AM J J jJ. 5 0 N I 1156 I lt:t57 I llf.SS I lq5q I 1960 I 1961 8 8SODO ...... 8'5,~'16 ~ 1.( ' 84SODO "" ~ "' 8ofooo FMAMJJASONVJPMAMJJASONOJFMAMdJAS }96'1. 1 1963 1 /9{;,. JJ 1... 1 S', OtJC II '}.OS', ODD J, 16£ ()/)() 11 11S, 00 D M;Bf,OtUJ ..... ~ u_ ' I, 0 15,(}00 l.u ~ (..J "'': IJ D()S',tJDtJ 16500() ' <ff',50DO aesooo I MASS HY/JROGRAPH SALMON CREEK RES£f?VOIR .5f/EE:T .3 oF 3 11 31. J, ()10 I-... ~ 1( f ),2. 8S, ~() fJ ~ IX: v ~ I~ 'J..-4 5, (}()0 8-i.sooo oN o J F M AMJ J As ONoJ F MAM Ju As oNt>J F MAM J JAsON DJFMANtr.J J A:5 ON o..; r MAMJ .JAs oNJJ J,. IIIAMd JA.s oN ojJ F MAM J JAsoN DJ F' MA M t1 JAsON I? J F MAM JJ As ' I l'f6S I /'166 I 1'167 I ICffJB I 1Cf69 I 1'170 1'{71 I Jt:t1t. I 1'173 5.1 A. I. SECTION V HYDRAULICS Existing System From Dam to Powerhouse No. 2. Head Loss at average flow of 66 .I cfs. Using the formula: Where: v 2 X n 2 X L hf = 2. 21 X R 1 • 333 hf = head toss in ft. v = velocity in ft. per sec. n = Coefficient 0. 014 R = Hydraulic Radius L = Length of section in ft. Pipe Dia. L. v 40 11 687.15 7.574 38 11 543.35 8.393 36 11 992.19 9.351 34" 577.25 10.484 32" 998.31 11.835 30 11 680.87 13.465 R 0.834 0.792 0.750 0.708 0.667 0.62S hf 4.45 4.63 11.29 8.92 21.28 20.49 TOTAL HEAD LOSS; 71.06' 2. Head loss in existing penstock for maximum power output and limiting velocity to 20 ft. per sec. Flow rn 3QH pipe @ 20 fps = 20 x 4.909 = 98.12 cfs. Pipe Dia. L. v R hf 40 11 687.15 11.25 0.834 9.82 38 11 543.35 . 12.46 0.792 10.21 36 11 992.19 13.88 0.750 24.88 34 11 577.25 '15.56 0.708 19.64 32 11 998.31 '17.57 0 667 46.90 30 11 680.87 20.00 0.625 r:ls. 20 TOTAL HEAD LOSS~ 156. 6f} Page 51 SECTION V -HYDRAULICS B. Replacing the 30", 32" and 34" dia. penstock sections with 36" dia. 1. Head loss with 120 cfs flow. Pipe Dia. L v R hf 40 11 687.15 13.75 0.834 14.68 38 11 543.35 15.24 0.792 15.27 36 11 3,248.62 16.98 0.750 121.90 TOTAL HEAD LOSS: 151. 85' An increase of 22% maximum flow with 4" 8 feet less friction loss. 2. Head loss with 66. 1 cfs flow. 40 11 687.15 7.574 0.834 4.45 38" 543.35 8.393 0.792 4.63 36 11 3,248.62 9.351 0.750 36.97 TOTAL HEAD LOSS: 46.05' 3. Pipe wall thickness and weight required. Design for 900 ft. of surge pressure or 390 psi. a. t = PR sc P = 390 psi. R = 18 11 S = 20,000 psi. C = 90% 3go x 18 t = = 0.39 11 7/16 11 = 0.4375 OK 20,000 X 0.9 b. weight of 2256 ft. of 36 11 dia. 7 /16'1 pipe wt. = 0.4375 x1;i8 x 113 x 490 x 2256 = 379,515 lbs. Page 52 SECTION V -HYDRAULICS C. Powerhouse No. 2 to Powerhouse No. 1 . I. Flume Section The flume section should have at least the flow capacity of powerhouse no. Z when operating at maximum flow or slightly greater than 120 cfs. Problem: What diameter lower pressure pipe is required for a flow of +120 cfs at a slope of 0.25%? Try: 54 11 diameter pipe" Velocity of flow in 54 11 diameter pipe at 0.25% grade. v = 1.318 ch Ro.s3so.s4 ch = 145, R 15.9 7 14.1 = 1.13, s = o.0025. V. = 1.318 x 145 x 1.13°·63 x 0.0025°·54 = 8.05 ft. per sec. Q = 8.05 X 15.9 = 128 (a good choice.) 2. Penstock Section For·ebay to P. H No. I Assume a 48 11 dia. penstock. Length is 1625 fL a. Head loss at 66.1 cfs. (average flow) hf = 5.252 X 0.0142 ~_1625 3.99 ft. 2.21 b. Head loss at 128 cfs. (capacity of 54" dia. flume.) 1 .22 X 0.014 2 X 1625 2.21 Page SECTION V -HYDRAULICS 3. Pipe wall thickness required for 48 11 dia. penstock static head approx. 400 ft. plus 25% surge = approx. 500 ft. of head or approx. 216 psi. Design for 250 psi or 577ft. of head. PR t = P = 250 psi. R = 24 11 Se S = 20,000 psi. e = 90% t = 250 X 24 = 0.33311 20000 X 0.9 3/8 11 = 0.375 11 OK (Add 1/16 11 for corrosion) 4. Weight of 1625 feet of 48 11 dia. 7/16 11 wall thickness penstock. wt. = 0. 4375 X rt-2; 150 .. 8 X 490 X 1625 = 364 r 810 I bs. D. New penstock from dam to powerhouse no. 1 and eliminate power- house no. 2. Use a maximum draft of 120 cfs. Length = approximately 15,980 feet. Limit velocity to 14 ft. per sec. 1. Size required to limit velocity to 14 ft./sec.1 D = ~(8.57 X 4) 7 n) = 3.3 ft. dia. Say 3'-61! minimum diameter pipe to consider. 2. Head loss in 42 11 , 48 11 and 54 11 penstock 15,980 feet in fength flowing 120 cfs. 42 11 12.52 X 0.0142 X 15980 263.4 feet a. = = hf 2.21 X 0.8751.333 (very high) b. 48 11 hf 9.552 X 0.0142 X 15980 129.3 feei· = = 2.21 c. 54u hf = 7.552 x 0.0142 ?.J~i80 = 69.0 feeL 2. 21 X 1.125 1 Velocity limited to 14 fps for this installation to minimize head loss and excessive pressure fluctuations. Page 54 SECTION V -HYDRAULICS 3. Head loss in 42 11 , 48 11 and 54 11 penstock 15,980 feet in length flowing 66. 1 cfs. a. 42 11 hf = 6.87 2 X 0.0142 X 15980 79.9 feet X 0.8751.333 .;::: 2.21 b. 48 11 hf = 5.262 X 0.0142 X 15980 39.2 feet = 2.21 c. 54 11 hf = 4.162 X 0.0142 X 15980 20.9 feet. 1.1251.333 = 2.21 X 4: Allowable head for various wall thickness of 42 11 , 48 11 and 54 11 diameter pipe. (Design for maximum pressure of 635 psi.) 42 11 Piee 48 11 Piee 54 11 Piee Thickness Allowable Allowable Allowable Inches ~ head-ft* ~ head-ft* ~ head-ft* 5/16 11 267 493 234 432 208 384 3/8 11 321 593 281 519 250 461 7/16 11 375 693 328 605 291 537 1/211 428 790 375 692 333 615 9/16 11 482 895 421 777 375 692 5/8 11 535 988 468 864 416 768 11/16 11 589 1088 515 951 458 846 3/411 642 1186 562 1038 500 923 13/1611 609 1125 541 999 7/8 11 656 1211 583 1077 15/16 11 625 1154 111 666 1230 * Allows for 255 psi surge pressure. Page 55 SECTION V -HYDRAULICS 5. Required thickness, length and weights for 42 11 penstock. Length Weight Thickness Feet Per Foot Weight 5/16 11 2,195 140.3 307,958 3/8 11 514 168.4 86,558 7/16 11 1,373 196.4 269,657 1/2 11 10,300 224.5 2,312,350 9/16 11 400 252.6 101,000 5/8 11 400 280.6 112,240 11/16 11 400 308.7 123,480 3/411 400 336.7 134,695 TOTAL WEIGHT: 3,447,978 lbs. 6. Required thickness, length and weights for 481i penstock. Length Weight Thickness feet per foot Weight 5/16 11 1,100 160.4 176,440 3/811 1,100 192.4 211,640 7/16 11 630 224.5 141,435 1/2 11 1,016 256.6 260,706 9/16 11 10,536 288.6 ~i 1040,690 5/8 11 320 320.7 102,624 11/1611 320 352.8 112,896 3/411 320 384.9 123,168 1-3/1611 320 416.9 133,408 7/8 11 320 449.0 143,680 ~--~~.--~·~ TOTAL WEIGHT: 4,446,687 lbs. Page ~)() SECTION V -HYDRAULICS 7. Required length, thickness and weights for 54 11 penstock. Length Weight Thickness feet Per Foot Weight 5/16 11 737 180.4 132,955 3/8 11 1,345 216.5 291,193 7/1611 120 252.6 30,312 1/211 740 288.6 213,564 9/1611 904 324.7 293,529 5/811 10,536 360.8 3,801,389 11/1611 266 396.9 105,575 3/411 266 433.0 115,178 13/1611 266 469.0 124,754 7/8 11 266 505.1 134,357 15/16 11 266 541.2 143,959 1" 270 577 3 155,871 TOTAL WEIGHT: 5,542,636 lbs. 8. Best Apparent Penstock Design Starting from dam to powerhouse no. I. Dia. Thickness Length Per Foot Weight 54 11 5/16 11 720 1 180.4 129,888 54 11 3/8 11 1/3601 216.5 294,440 48 11 7/16" 720' 224.5 161,640 48 11 1/211 1, 760 1 256.6 451/616 48 11 9/1611 9,8001 288.6 2,828,280 42 11 9/1611 400 252.6 101 f 040 42 11 5/8 11 400 280.6 112,240 42 11 11/1611 400 308.7 123,480 42 11 3/411 400 336.7 134,680 T01AL EIGHT: 4,337,304 !bs. Page 57 9. SECTION V -HYDRAULICS Head loss in best apparent penstock design. 66.1 cfs 120 cfs 5411 dia. = 2. 7 1 54 11 dia. = 8.991 48 11 dia. = 30.1 1 48 11 dia. = 99.33 1 42 11 dia. = 8.0 1 42 11 dia. = 26.49 1 Total: 48.8 1 Total: 134.81 1 This design utilizes 109,383 fewer pounds of steel than an all 48 11 diameter penstock with nearly identical head losses. E. Hydraulics Recommendations 1. Replace the 30 11 , 32 11 and 34 11 diameter penstock sections between the dam and powerhouse no. 2 with 36 11 diameter 7/16 11 wall thickness pipe. 2. Replace the approximately 10,000 feet of wood flume between powerhouse no. 2 and the forebay above powerhouse no. 1 with 5411 diameter CMP with a 0.138 11 wall thickness. Utilize the existing flume suppor·ts and t"P.pair as required. /-\ppr·ox~ imately 450 concrete footings will be required in the trestle sections of the flume. 3. Replace the existing penstocks between the forebay and powerhouse no. 1 with one 48 11 diameter pipe. If available, we recommend surplus pipe from the Alyeska Pipeline Com- pany. Contact: R. J. Egan, Surplus Management Depart- ment, P.O. Box 4-Z, Anchorage,. Ak. 99509; office at 3301 11 C 11 Str~eet in Anchorage. If the Alyeska surplus pipe is unavailable, 162~j feet of 48 11 diameter, 7/16 11 wall thickness pipe is recommended. Page 58 SECTION V -HYDRAULICS 4. Replace the forebay with a surge tank to protect the low pressure pipe replacing the flume and to protect the pen- stock. It will also improve governing stability and prevent spill when rapidly shutting down powerhouse no. 1. 5. Should AELP desire to eliminate powerhouse no. 2 and have a single penstock extending from the dam to powerhouse no. 1, the penstock design should be approximately as shown in section D. 8. above. If approximately 14,000 feet of Alyeska surplus 48-inch pipe is available, it is recommended that all of the 48 11 and 42 11 pipe length be substituted with A!yeska pipe. Thls pipe has been pressure tested to 1150 psi. Page 59 SECTION VI CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE The estimate of costs are provided for six alternates: 1. The installation of a new automated 5000 kW Francis turbine unit at powerhouse no. 2. This includes replacing the existing 30 11 , 32 11 and 34 11 sections of the penstock with new 36 11 to reduce friction losses and excessive pressure fluctuations. 2. The upgrading and automation of the existing equipment at powerhouse no. 2. This includes the replacement of the penstock sections enumerated in 1, 3. The upgrading and automation of the existing equipment at powerhouse no. 1. This includes replacing the flume with low- pressure conduit, a new 48 11 penstock and a surge tank. 4. A new automated 3000 kW unit at powerhouse no. 1 with waterway improvements as in 3 above. 5. The installation of two new automated 4500 kW units ln powerhouse no, 1 with a new penstock from the dam. 6. The installation of one new automated 9000 kW unit in power- house no. 1 with a new penstock from the darn. The construction costs are current (1978) costs based upon the latest labor rates, construction equipment costs and recent costs for mechanical/electrical equipment and permanent materials. In Section 7 of thlc :·epor't,. the total costs are escalated through the assumed construction period for each alternate in order to provide a realistic basis for power costs. The project cost estimates are presented in the following ;)ages. Page 60 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE Cost Estimate Item I: Installation of a new automated 5000 kW Francis Turbine unit at Powerhouse No. 2. A. Direct Costs Labor 1. One horizontal Francis turbine including valve and governor 90 1 000 2. Generator 1 Exciter 1 etc. 5 MW I 0. 8 pf 30 I 000 3. Unit switchgear and Relaying 25 1 000 4. Line Relay Panel 5 1000 5. Remote Supervisory Control 30 1 000 6. Auto Synchronizing Equipment 5 1000 7. 125 Volt d. c. Battery 1 Charger and Distribution Panel 9, 000 8. Low Voltage Station Service 5 1000 9. Lighting System 5 1000 10. Grounding System 5,000 11. Conduit and Cables 20£000 12. Foundations 64,000 13. Change out 30 11 1 32 11 and 3411 Penstock with new 36 11 Penstock 240 1 000 14. 6250 kVA 1 3 phse 1 4 kV-24kV Transformer and Accessories 10,000 Material 3401000 3401000 1001000 351000 601000 30{000 21,000 20,000 51000 5{000 360,000 70,000 Tota! i~)jrect Costs: Total 4301000 3701000 1251000 401000 901000 351000 301000 251000 101000 101000 40,000 80,000 600,000 801000 ~' 1 r 965 1 000 Page 61 1 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE B. Indirect Costs 1 . Indirect Construction Costs 1 2. Contingency 3. Engineering 4. Owner•s Administration and Legal Expense 5. Interest During Construction Assume Expense Year 1978 Assume Expense Year 1979 Assume Expense Year· 1980 Then @ 10% Interest 300,000 X 5% + 10% + 10% 1,055,000 X 5% + 10% 1,415,000 X 5% Year 1 15,000 15,000 Total Interest During Construction: Total Indirect Costs: GRAND TOTAL -ITEM i: Year 2 30,000 52,750 82,750 390,000 100,000 295,000 20,000 300,000 1,055,000 1,415,000 Year 3 30,000 105,500 70,750 206,250 $304,000 $1,109,000 $3,074,000 Indirect construction costs include such things CJS construction 8quip- ment depreciation, supervision, office expense, insurance, cons1Tuclors 1 profit, etc. Page 62 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE Item I I: Upgrade Equipment and Automate Upper Salmon Creek Powerhouse (No. 2) A. General In general, this option is not r·ecommended because of the age and condition of the equipment. B. Costs 1. Upgrade mechanical equipment 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Rewind each generator stator at $25,000/stator Rewind each generator field at $12,000/field New static excitation system at $20,000/set Replace existing low voltage station service equipment including transformer and incoming fuse disconnect Upgrade lightning system Upgrade or replace conduits and cables system 8. Provide additional gr·ounding mat :md connectors 9. 10. 11. Generator breaker and control protection equipment Contingencies Change out the 30 11 , 32 11 and 34u penstock with new 36 11 penstock Modify turbine pits and tailrace ~3UBTOTAL: $250/000 50,000 24,000 40,000 25,000 5,000 20,000 5,000 70,000 50,000 600,000 60,000 $1,199,000 Page 63 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE C. Automation of Equipment at Powerhouse No. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Automation of upgraded mechanical equipment - 2 units @ $50,000 Furnish, install, and connect generator relaying and additional controls for two units Furnish, install and connect automatic synchronizing system Furnish, install, and connect line relay panel Furnish, install, and connect remote supervisory control system SUBTOTAL: TOTAL direct costs for REHABILITATING AND AUTOMATING POWERHOUSE NO. 2 D. Indirect Costs 1. Indirect Construction Costs 2. Contingency 3. Engineering 4. Owner's Administration & Legal Expense 5. Interest During Construction Assumes bid in 1978 @ 10% $100,000 170,000 35,000 40,000 90,000 $435,000 $1,634,000 300,000 165,000 160,000 165,000 Total Indirect Cost: 807,000 GRAND TOTAL-ITEM If: $2,441,000 Page 64 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE Item Ill -Upgrade Equipment and Automate Lower Salmon Creek Powerhouse (No. 1) A. General B. In general, this option is not recommended because of the age and condition of the equipment. Costs 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Upgrade mechanical equipment Rewind each generator stator @ $25,000/stator Rewind each generator field @ $12,000/field New static excitation system @ $20,000/set Replace existing low voltage station service equipment including trans- former and incoming fuse disconnect Upgrade lighting system Upgrade or replace conduits and cables system 8. Provide additional grounding mat and connectors 9. 10. 12. 13. Generator breaker and control pro- tection equipment Contingencies Replace flume with 54" CMP 48" diameter· penstock Surge tank SUBTOT.b.L: $250,000 50,000 24,000 40,000 ' 25,000 5,000 20,000 5,000 70,000 50{000 1/100,000 485{000 150 1 000 $2,274 1 000 Page 65 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE C. Automation of Equipment at Powerhouse No. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Automation of upgraded mechanical equipment -2 unis @ $50,000 Furnish, install, and connect generator relaying and additional controls for two units Furnish, install and connect automatic synchronizing system Furnish, install, and connect line relay panel Furnish, install, and connect remote supervisory control system SUBTOTAL: TOTAL direct costs to REHABILITATE AND AUTOMATE POWERHOUSE NO. 1: D. Indirect Costs. 1. Indirect Construction Costs 2. Contingency 3. Engineering 4. Owner's Administration & Legal Exrense 5. Interest During Construction Assumes bid in 1978 and 21 months Canst. @ 10% Total Indirect Costs: GRAND TOTAL ~ ITEM Ill $100,000 170,000 35,000 40,000 90,000 $435,000 $2,709,000 500,000 250{000 278,000 30{000 250,000 1,308,000 $4,017,000 Page 66 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE Item IV -New Automated Equipment at Powerhouse No. 1 (One 3,000 kW Unit) A. Direct Costs. Labor Material 1. One horizontal Francis turbine including valve & governor 53,500 201,500 2. Misc. mechanical equipment 30,000 170,000 3. Generator, 3, 333 kVA I 0.9 p.L 600 RPM, 4,160 volts, 3 phase 20,000 220,000 4. Static excitation system 2,000 231000 5. Transformer, 3 phase, 3,333 kVA 7,500 52,500 6. Unit switchgear and relaying 25,000 100,000 7. Line relay panel 5,000 35,000 8. Remote supervisory controi 30,000 60,000 9. Auto synchronizing equipment 5,000 30,000 10. 125 volt d .c. battery, charger and distribution panel 9,000 ?'1,000 11. Low voltage station service 5,000 20,000 12. Lighting system 5,000 5,000 13. Grounding system 5,000 5,000 14. Conduit and cables 20,000 20,000 15. Replacement of flume with 54 11 CMP 600,000 500,000 16. 48" diameter penstock 3021000 1831000 17. Surge tank 75,000 75,000 Total Direct Costs: Total 255,000 200,000 240,000 25,000 60,000 125,000 40,000 90,000 351000 30,000 25,000 10,000 10,000 40,000 1,100,000 485,000 150,000 $2,920,000 Page 67 SECTION, VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE B. Indirect Costs Note: 1. Indirect construction 2. Contingency 3. Engineering 4. Owner•s Administration & Legal Costs 5. Interest During Construction Assume expense 1978 Assume expense 1979 Then @ 1 O% Interest 1,960,000 X 5% + 10% 2,100,000 X 5% Total Interest During Construction 1,960,000 2,100,000 Year 1 98,000 98,000 Year· 2 196,000 105,000 301,000 Total Indirect Costs: GRAND TOTAL -ITEM IV: 540,000 150,000 420 1 000 30,000 399{000 $1,539,000 $4,459,000 Under direct costs itern 5; add $60,000 for an auto-transformer with 4.16 kV, 3.3 MVA to 23 kV, 6.6 MVA and 23 kV to 69 kV, 10 MVA for future conversion to f-\ELP 69 kV trans- mission system. Page 68 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE Item V: New Automated Equipment at Powerhouse No. 1 (2 4500 kW Units) (Eliminate Powerhouse No. 2) A. Direct Costs. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Two 4500 kW double nozzle single overhung horizontal Pelton turbines; 1,050 foot head, 720 RPM, with valves and governors Miscellaneous mechanical equipment (pumps, monorail, compressor, etc.) Two generators, 5000 kVA, 0.9 PF, 720 RPM, 4260 volts, 3 phase Static excitation equipment @ $30,000 Transformer bank 3 -single phase kVA, OA-FA, 4.16 kV -24 kV Unit switchgear and relaying furnished, installed and connected per unit $125,000 Line relay panel -furnished, installed and connected 8. Line breaker -furnished, installed and connected 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Remote supervisory control system - furnished 1 installed and connected Automatic synchronizing equipment - furnished, installed and connected 125 volt d. c. battery, chargers and distribution panel -furnished, installed and connected Low voltage station service system, including transformers and fuse disconnect -furnished 1 ins tailed and connected Lighting system -furnished, installed and connected $648,000 200,000 702,000 60,000 122,000 250,000 40,000 35,000 120,000 35,000 35,000 30,000 15,000 Page 69 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE 14. Grounding system -furnished, installed and connected 15. Conduit and cables -furnished, installed and connected 16. Installation of new penstock from dam to powerhouse no. 1 TOTAL direct costs: B. Indirect Costs 1. Indirect Construction Costs 2. Contingency 3. Engineering 4. Owner 1 s administration & Legal Expense 5. Interest during construction Assume expenses 1978 Assume expenses 1979 Assume expenses 1980 Then @ 1 O% Interest 2,000,000 X 5% +10% +10% 5,000,000 X 5% + 10% 6,242,000 X 5% 2,0001000 5,000,000 6,242,000 Year 2 200,000 2501000 12,000 60,000 7,157,000 $9,521/000 $1,750,000 900,000 975/000 96,000 Year 3 200,000 500,000 312,100 450,000 1,012,100 Total interest During Construction: $1,562,100 Total Indirect Costs: GRAND TOTAL -!TEiv1 V; $14,804/000 Page 70 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE Item VI: New Automated Equipment at Powerhouse No. 1 (One 9000 kW Unit) A. Direct Costs. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11 < 12. 13. 14. 15. One 9000 kW double nozzle single overhung horizontal Pelton turbine, 1050 foot head, 516 RPM, including valve and governor Miscellaneous mechanical equipment Generator, 10,000 kVA, .9 PF, 514 RPM, 4160 volts, 3 phase Static excitation system Transformer bank Unit switchgear and relaying Line relay panel Remote supervisory control Auto synchronizing equipment 125 volt d. c. battery, chargers and distribution panel Low voltage station service system Lighting system Grounding system Conduit and cables Installation of new penstock from darn to powerhouse no. 1 TOTAL direct costs: $578,000 200,000 546,000 40,000 122,000 125,000 40,000 90,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 10,000 10,000 40,000 7,157,000 $9,048,000 Page 71 SECTION VI -CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE B. Indirect Costs 1. Indirect Construction Cost 2. Contingency 3. Engineering 4. Owner1 s Administrative & Legal Expense 5. Interest During Construction Assume expenses 1978 Assume expenses 1979 Assume expenses 1980 Then @ 10% Interest 1,000,000 X 5% + 10% + 10% 5,000,000 X 5% + 10% 5,578,000 X 5% 2,000,000 5,000,000 5,578,000 Year 1 100,000 100,000 Year 2 200,000 250;000 450,000 1,640,000 875,000 925,000 90,000 Year 3 200,000 500,000 278,900 978,900 Total Interest During Construction 1,528,900 Total Indirect Costs: 5,058, 900 GRAND TOTAL -ITEM VI: $14,106,900 Page 72 SECTION VII POWER COST ESTIMATES The following power cost estimates utilizes the capital cost data from Section 6 and assumes financing at 10.5% interest and 20-year maturity. The power cost estimates include annual operation and maintenance costs as well as insurance costsj these costs have been estimated based on the experience of other Alaskan utilities• hydroelectric projects, and are considered conservative. However, debt service makes up to over 93% of the total annual cost of the recommended development and therefore potential economies in the cost of financing are most capable of signif- icantly influencing power cost. Table 7-7 combines the alternatives of a two powerhouse scheme as developed in Section 6, Items 1 through 4, Note: Amortization costs of the existing Salmon Creek facilities are not included in these estimates. Page 73 SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES TABLE 7-1 POWER COST ESTIMATE New 5000 kW Horizontal Francis Unit At Upper Salmon Creek Powerhouse No. 2 Installed capacity Primary energy Secondary energy Total Annual Ave. Energy Capital Investment (escalated @ 7%) 315,000 1,137,750 X 1.07 1,621,250 X 1.07 X 1.07 5,000 21,810,000 4!790,000 26,600"000 315,000 1,217,390 1,856[ 170 kW kWh kWh kWh Total Capital Investment: $3,388,560 Annual Costs Operations: 2080 man hr. @ 25.00 Maintenance 5000 kW @ 1.25 Insurance @ $1/1000 Total Annual Cost: Debt Service $3,388,560, 20 yrs. 10.5%-0.1202 Total Annual Cost of Power Power Cost Assuming 26,600,000 kWh sales 52,000 6,250 3,400 $61,650 407,300 $468,950 17.6 mills/kWh SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES TABLE 7-2 POWER COST ESTIMATE Rehabilitate and Automate Existing Upper Salmon Creek Powerhouse No. 2 Installed capacity 2,800 Primary energy 20,720;000 Secondary Energy 4,550,000 Total Annual Ave. Energy 25,270;000 Capital Investment (escalated to end of 1978) Annual Costs Operation 2080 man hr. @ 25.00 Maintenance, 2800 kW @ 2. 50 Insurance @ $1/1000 kW kWh kWh kWh $2,612,000 TOTAL: 52,000 7,000 ~600 $61,600 Debt Service $2,612,000, 20 yrs. 10.5%-0.1202 313,962 Total Annual Cost of Power $375,562 Power cost @ 25,270,000 kWh sales 14.9 mi lis/kWh Page 75 SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES TABLE 7-3 POWER COST ESTIMATE Rehabilitate and Automate Lower Salmon Creek Powerhouse No. 1 Installed capacity 2,800 kW Primary energy 12,806,000 kWh Secondary energy 2£817,000 kWh Total Annual Ave. Energy 15,623,000 kWh Capital Investment (escalated to end of 1979) $4,599,000 Annual Costs Maintenance, 2800 kW @ 2.50 Insurance @ $1/100 Debt Service 4,599,000, 20 yrs. 10.5% -0.1202 Total Annual Costs of Power Power cost @ 15,623,000 kWh sales TOTAL: 7,000 4,600 $11{600 552,800 $564/400 36.1 mills/kWh Page 76 SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES TABLE 7-4 POWER COST ESTIMATE New Automated 3000 kW Unit Lower Salmon Creek Powerhouse No. 1 Installed capacity Primary Energy Secondary Energy Total Annual Ave, Energy Capital Investment (escalated @ 7%) 2/058/000 2,401,000 X 1.07 3,000 kW 13,480 1 000 kWh _2,965t000 kWh 16 1 445,000 kWh 2,058,000 2,569/070 Total Capital Investment: Annual Costs Maintenance 1 3,000 kW@ 1.25 Insurance @ $1/1000 TOTAL: Debt Service $4,627,070, 20 yrs. -10~5%-0,1202 Total Annual Cost of Power 3,750 51000 $8,750 5561175 $564,925 Assuming 16,445,000 kWh &ales 34.4 mills/kWh Page 77 SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES TABLE 7-5 POWER COST ESTIMATE New Automated Plant at Powerhouse No. 1 With New Penstock From Dam (2-4500 kW Units) Installed capacity Primary energy Secondary energy Total Annual Ave. Energy Capital Investment (escalated @ 7%) 2,100,000 5 1 450,000 to 1979 7,254,100 to 1980 9 1 000 kW 35' 396 I 000 kWh 7,771,000 kWh 43,167,000 kWh 2,100,000 5,831,500 8,3051200 Total Capital Investment: $16/236,700 Annual Costs Maintenance, 9 1 000 kW @ $1.25 Insurance $1/1000 TOTAL: Debt Service $16,236,700, 20 yrs. 10.5%-0.1202 Total Annual Cost of Power Power Cost@ 43,167,000 kWh sales 111250 16,240 27,490 1,951,650 1 1 979 r 140 45.8 mills/kWh Page 78 SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES TABLE 7-6 POWER COST ESTIMATE New Automated Plant at Powerhouse No. 1 With New Penstock From Dam (1 -9000 kW Unit) Installed capacity Primary energy Secondary energy Total Annual Ave. Energy 9,000 kW 35,396,000 kWh 7 I 771,000 kWh 43,167 1 000 kWh Capital Investment (escalated @ 7%) 2,100,000 5,450,000 X 1.07 6,556,900 X 1.07 X 1.07 2,100,000 5,831,500 7,506,995 Total Capital Investment: Annual Costs Maintenance 1 9,000 kW @ 1, ?5 Insurances $1/1000 TOTAL: Debt Service $15,438,495, 20 yrs.10.5% -0.1202 Total Annual Cost of Power Power Cost @ 43,167,000 kWh sales $15,438,495 11,250 J_h440 26,690 $1,855,700 $1,882,390 Ll3.6 mills/kWh F>age 79 1. 2. 3. SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES TABLE 7-7 COMBINATION POWER COST ESTIMATE Rehabilitate and automate existing equipment at Powerhouse No. 1 and No. 2. kWh Annual Cost Powerhouse 1: (Table 7-3) 15,623r000 $564,400 Powerhouse 2: (Table 7-2) 25!270,000 375,562 TOTAL: 40,893,000 $939,962 Cost of power; 23.0 mills/kWh Rehabilitate and automate existing equipment at Powerhouse No. 2 and new 3, 000 kW unit at Powerhouse No. 1. kWh Annual Cost Powerhouse 1: (Table 7-4) 16,445{000 564,925 Powerhouse 2: (Table 7-2) 25,270,000 375,562 TOTAL: 41,715,000 $940,487 Cost of power: 22.5 mills/kWh Install new automated 5000 kW unit at Powerhouse No. 2 and rehabilitate and automate existing equipment in Powerhouse No. 1. kWh Annual Cost Powerhouse 1: (Table 7-3) 15,623,000 $564,400 Powerhouse 2: (Table 7-1) TOTAL: Cost of power: 24.5 mills/kWh. 26,600,000 42,223;000 468,950 $1,033,350 Page 80 SECTION VII -POWER COST ESTIMATES 4. Install new automated 5000 kW unit at Powerhouse No. 2 and install new automated 3,000 kW unit at Powerhouse No. 1, kWh Annual Cost Powerhouse 1: (Table 7-4) 16,445,000 564,925 Powerhouse 2: (Table 7-1) 26,600l000 468l950 TOTAL: 43,045,000 $1,033,875 Cost of power: 24.0 mills/kWh Note: The above combination (item 4) would add approximately 5,200 kW capacity to the AELP system. AELP will require another 2500 kW diesel unit by 1980 for standby capacity if additional hydro capacity is not added. This unit may be expected to cost $240.00 per kW installed or a total of $600,000. If this amount were credited to the r·ehabi!itation of the Salmon Creek Project, the hydro would be even more attractive. Page 81 APPENDIX A ·r _. •' JAMES M. MONTGOMERY. CONSUL:riNG ENGINEERS, INC. 2255 A•enida De La Playa, La Jolla;" Caltlornia 9Z037 I (714) 459-2931 INTRODUCTION REPORT ON SAFETY INSPECTION PROJECT NO. 2307 -ALASKA A safety inspection of Salmon Creek and Annex Creek Project (Pro- ject No. 2307 -Alaska} has been made. This inspection was made to fulfill the requirements of Section 12.2 of Part 12 of the Regulations under the Federal Power Commission. The inspection consisted of a visual inspection of each darn and other project facilities and an analysis of potential earthquakes that could affect Salmon Creek Dam to determine if the latest information substantiates the assumptions made in the stress analysis performed in November 1972. SALMON CREEK DAM The inspection of Salmon Creek Darn was made on May 17, 1977. Water surface at Salmon Creek Dam at the time of the inspection was approximately 50 feet below the spillway crest so that the area that was repaired in the summer of 1967 was visible. ·The gunite repair on the upstream face of the dam was in very good condition as shown on the attached photos. Only small areas showed evidence of spalling of the gunite and these were the areas where the gunite was only a relatively thin layer over sound concrete and generally near the bottom of the repair. The gunite repair of the spillway was in excellent condition as shown on the attached photo. There was no evidence of any spalling on either the spillway floor or the left wall that was repaired. Debris has collected in front of the spillway as shown on the photo and should be removed or burned to prevent it accumulating against the spillway piers and stopping any flood flows that could possibly cause overtopping of the darn. The weather during the inspection was clear and dry so it was possible to determine whether there was appreciable leakage through the dam. The downstream face was essentially dry with no evidence of any noticeable wetness on the downstream face. There is some evidence of a continued deposit of the carbonate material on the downstream face caused by leaching of the lime added to the concrete during construction. The build-up is only very slight since the face of -1- JAMES M. MO!'I.-rGOM::ERY.CO!'I.i"SUl!!''NG ENGINEERS, INC. 2255 Avenida De La Playa, La Jolla. Califo.nia 92037 I (714) 459·2931 the dam was scaled in 1967 indicating that the dam is a pretty tight structure. There was no evidence of water flowing along the abut- ments on the downstream-face. To evaluate the static seismic coefficient of 0.1 which was used in the stress analysis performed in November, 1972, in light of current information regarding faulting and seismicity, a review of faulting and seismicity in the Juneau area was made. In order to secure the most recent data on seismicity in the Juneau area, the U. S. Geolog- ical Survey was contacted both in Juneau and in Denver. The data provided by U. S. G. s. and used in the review included (1) pages 7 through 22 of an open file report entitled "Surficial Geology of the Juneau Urban Area and Vicinity, with Emphasis on Earthquakes and Other Geologic Hazards" which we received from Mr. Robert D. Miller of U. S. G. S. in response to our request for information; and {2) a paper entitled "Separation and History of the Chatham Fault, Southeast Alaska, North America", which we received from Mr. John C. Lohr of U. S. G. S. Page 11 of (1) above points out that historical record dictates that earthquakes strong enough to affect Juneau most likely would occur along the Fairweather -Owen Charlotte Islands Fault which is located approximately 100 miles west of the dam site.· An evept of magnitude 8 apparently occurred 9n this fault on July 10, 1958. Our consulting geologist has computed the maximum acceleration at the site due to an event of this magnitude on the Fairweather -Owen Charlotte Fault. This computation was made using a method presented by Schnabel and Seed in "Acceleration in Rock for Eathquakes in the Western United States 11 • This computation produced an estimated maximum bedrock acceleration at the dam site on the order of 0.04g. There is another fault having some potential for affecting the Juneau area is the Chatham Strait Fault. Mr. Lohr points out in his letter that some geologists consider the fauJt to be active. However, although this fault is a major structural feature there is apparently no general agreement regarding the activity of the fault and as Mr. Lohr points out, no specific estimates of maxi- mum credible or maximum probable events along the fault have been made. Nr. Lohr points out that two earthquakes of magnitude class 6 occurred in 1944 and 1952 on a possible northern extension of the Chatham Strait Fault. Even if an event of this magnitude were to occur on that portion of the Chatham Strait Fault located closest to Juneau area (approximately 25 miles west of Juneau), our geologist has estimated that the maximum bedrock acceleration at the dam site would be on the order of 0.09g. -2- JAMES M. MONTGO!'<fER'( CONSULTING ENGINEERS, INC. 2255 Avenida De La Playa. La Jolla. Calilornia 92037 I (71ot) ot59;2931 On the basis of the review, it appears that there is no conclusive evidence presently available to indicate that the dam site will be subject to maximum bedrock acceleration in excess of O.lg so no additional stress analysis of the darn is required. However, as pointed out by Mr. Lohr, because seismic records in southeast Alaska is very short, " •..•.••••. care should be taken in drawing a firm conclusion from the low level of seismic activity there." ANNEX CREEK DAM An inspection of Annex Creek Darn was made on October 12, 1976. At the time of the inspection, water was flowing over the spillway. The general condition of the dam is good. There appears to be no deterioration or rotting of the treated timber from which the dam was built. There is, however, appreciable leakage which in no way endangers the safety of the dam. The greatest amount of leak- age appears to be coming through the end joints of the decking where the decking was spliced between the stringers. Deflection produced by the water load opens these joints sufficient to cause leakage. The main adverse effect of the leakage is its ice pro- ducing capability should the lake level be high during the freez- ing period. Review of historic lake levels indicates that such a condition is a rare possibility, at best. Structural design calculations of the reconstructed da~ have not been made as it is presumed that they were submitted to the Fed- eral Power Commission for approval when the darn was reconstructed .. PENSTOCKS AND FLUME On October 11 -14, 1976, a thickness survey of Upper and Lower Salmon Creek Project penstocks was made. This survey included a visual inspection as well as determination of the thickness of the metal by means of non-destructive ultrasonic thickness measuring equipment. Thickness readings were generally taken in the upper half of the pipe above the centerlinei however, at approximately one-fourth to one-third of the locations, thickness readings were taken in the lower half of the pipe. There were no appreciable differences between the upper and lower half readings. l~t a given location, thickness measurements were taken over an area of nne i:o two square inches. The Upper Salmon Creek and Annex Creek penstocks appear to be in good condition from the ultrasonic survey. In most cases generally uniform and steady readings were indicated as the transducer was moved around the surfac~ of the pipe. Excessive scale or pitting would have been indicated by widely varying readings caused by re~ flection and scattering of the ultrasonic waves from the rough interior of the pipe. -3- 4 .. JA:'>IES M. MONTGOMERY. CONSULTING ENGINEERS. INC. 2255 Avenida De La Playa. La Jolla. Cahlo•!'•a 92037/(7UJ4~9-29J1 The flume and penstock from Upper Salmon Creek Powerhouse to LOYler Salmon Creek Powerhouse were not operating. Management of Alaska Electric Light and Power Company has elected not to op~rate the · Lower Salmon Creek Powerhouse because its small generating capacity makes it an uneconomic source of power compared to alternate avail- able hydro-power sources. In the past several years the flume and penstock have deteriorated to a point where they are no longer safe to operate. Management of Alaska Light and Power Company is aware of their unsafe condition and will not operate Lower Salmori Creek Powerhouse until the flume and penstock are rehabilitated and the plant has been automated so that it can be economically operated as a source of power. The Annex Creek Penstock appears generally to be in good condition. As the pipe is almost entirely exposed, the exterior has suffered more corrosion than the Upper Salmon Creek penstock. The original coating has deteriorated to some extent from the last survey made approximately 12 years ago. There is less of the coating on the exposed sides and bottom of the pipe and consequently a little more surface pitting. Condition of some of the supports in the supported sections of the penstock is not too good. Pm·lERHOUSES Upper Salmon Creek Powerhouse was inspected on May 17, 1977 .. The powerhouse is well maintained. All equipment is clean and in good state of repair. Lower Salmon Creek Powerhouse was not inspected as it bas not been operating for approximately two years due to unfavorable economics. Annex Creek Powerhouse was inspected on October 12, 1976. The same general comments apply as for Upper Salmon Creek Powerhouse. The plant is currently undergoing modifications and repair. -4- ~ .. I OVER-ALL VIEW OF RIGHT ABUTMENT CLOSE-UP VIEW OF RIGHT ABUTMENT .. OVER-ALL VIEW OF .LEFT ABUTMENT CLOSE-UP VIEW OF LEFT ABUTMENT I :.f I I i I ! ! t I I . ..... LEFT SPILLWAY WALL AND FLOOR DEBRIS IN FRONT OF SPILLWAY ... ·~ .-... · i. . i ~ : ! ., ' . ' JAMES M. MONTGO!IolERY. CONSULTING ENGil'liEERS. INC. 2255 A•enida De La Plsya, La Jolla. California 92037 I (7\4) 4!>9·2931 CERTIFICATE I certify that the inspection of Licensed Project No. 2307 - Alaska for the Salmon Creek and Annex Creek Projects near Juneau, Alaska, as required by Section 12.2 of Part 12 of Regulations under the Federal Power Act (FPC Order No. 315} has been made by me, and is approved by me. Approved for JAMES M. MONTGOMERY{ CONSULTING ENGINEERS, INC. B. . Hild ard Vice President Registered Engi'neer-State of Alaska Registration No. 1330-E -6- APPENDIX B '· .. •' ·).·•- '" . , .JAMES M. MONTGOMERY, CONSULTING 2255 Avenida De La Playa, La Jolla, California 9202 7 I {714) 459-2931 October 18, 1976 Mr. Franz Naegle Alaska Electric Light and Power 134 Franklin Street Juneau, Alaska 99801 Dear Mr. Naegle: ENGINEERS, INC • B. G. Hli..DYARD K-ENNETH G. FERGUSOM. !'ESTOP. G, RAMOS EDUARDO ARGUELLES WIL.L.V.Iol H. loiOSitR At your request, during the period of October 11 -14, 1976, we performed a thickness survey of the Upper and Lower Salmon Creek Penstocks and the Annex: Creek Penstock. This survey included a visual inspection as well as determination of the thickness of the metal by means of non-destructive ultra- sonic thickness measuring equipment. The results of the thickness survey are given in the attached tables. The column headed "Design Thickness" was taken from data in your files. ~ The thickness readings were generally taken in the upper half of the pipe above the centerline. However, at approximately one-fourth to one-third of the loca- tions, thickness readings were taken in the lower half of the pipe. There was no appreciable or consistent differences between the upper half and lower half readings. Sometimes the upper readings were 10 to 15 thousandths of an inch higher and sometimes the same amount lower. The difference was generally the same regardless of the metal thickness. At a given location, the thickness measurement was taken over an area of one to two square inches. The values in the table for a given location are the aver- age for all readings at that location. In general, the readings at a given location did not vary more than 20 thousandths of an inch. This variation is probably caused by shallow surface pitting both on the inside and outside surfaces. The Upper Salmon Creek and Annex penstocks appear. to be in good condition from the ultrasonic survey. In most cases generally uniform and steady readings were indicated as the transducer was moved around the surface of the pipe. Excessive scale or pitting would have been indicated by widely varying readings caused by reflection and scattering of the ultrasonic waves from the rough interior of the pipe. ::> 1 tJ. N N 1 N (; .•.• R E S E A R C H ..• E N V I R 0 N M E N T A l . ENGINEERING \ : ------------------------------------------~----------------~------------------------- Alaska Electric Light & Power -2-~ October 18, 1976 LOWER SALMON CREEK PENSTOCK. .. ' Reference to left and right penstocks will be made looking from the powerhouse toward the flume upstream. Exterior of the right penstock was extremely pitted with large more or less connected pits of a depth of 1/16 inch or greater. Very heavy rust scale was encountered over most of the penstock making the taking of accurate thickness readings difficult. A circumferential split was found approximately 950 feet above the powerhouse. This split extended over most of the top half of the pipe. ·Visual inspection of the plate at this point indicated metal thickness of 1/8 inch or less. This was verified by ultrasonic readings in this area of 0. 100 to 0.140 inches. As can be seen from the table, the penstock appears to have a thickness of 1/8 inch or less. However, it should be noted that these measurements are somewhat in question because of the condition of the surface but they are considered sufficiently accurate to determine that the penstock is appreciably thinner than its design thickness of 1/4 inch. It is our recommendation that this penstock be replaced if the decision is made to use the lower powerhouse facility. Condition of the left pensto,ck was somewhat better in general than that of the right penstock. The coating was in somewhat better condition but there were extensive areas of exterior rusting. Except for two areas where the metal thick- ness is appreciably less than the 1/4 inch design thickness, the penstock is not appreciably thinner than its design. Should it be desireable to put this penstock back in service it could, with some repair, be used. Condition of the flume from Powerhouse No. 2 to the head of the penstock is not good. Probably the worst feature is the extremely poor vertical alignment. A casual observation indicates a large number of sags. When the flume is operat-- ing, the water depth at these low points i.s appreciably greater than the nonnal depth and this added load puts undo strains on the supports. Bef'?re the flume could be considered a reliable conveyance structure, appreciable maintenance work would have to be performed. The fact that the flume has not operated for approximately two years has further lead to its general deterioration. The same is true of the penstocks. Empty penstocks with the very humid interior atmosphere ~ends to rust more rapidly than if they are full of water. For the amount of power that has historically been produced at Powerhouse No. ] s it would hardly seem economical to try to repair this water conveying systern. However, such an economic study is not a part of this report. It is just an observation based on the writers long association with this prc1ject. . . ... Alaska Electric Light &:: Power -3-~ October 18, 1976 UPPER SALMON CREEK PENSTOCK. This penstock is generally in good condition. The bridges and supports appear to be in good condition as they were replaced almost in their entirety approxi- mately 10 years ago. The exterior paint appears to be in about the same con- dition as it was 12 years ago at the last inspection. The only apparent exterior distress is some heavy rusting adjacent to the circumferential joints on the up- hill side of the section that is lapped over the adjacent section and adjacent to the longitudinal joint where water tends to be trapped. Several of these areas were chipped to sound metal and thickness readings taken. At those areas ex- amined, there does not appear to be excessive deterioration of the penstock • . In those areas where the pipe was uncovered along the sfdes and bottom, the coating appears in excellent condition with only small patches of visible rust. The coating is well bonded. There has not been appreciable change in thickness from the original survey performed in May, 1964. We are at a loss to explain why the measured thick- nesses at the lower end of the penstock are greater than the reported design thickness. The design thi<;:kness was taken from a table accompanying a letter from J. A. Wilcox, Assistant Engineer, Alaska Gastineau Mining Co., dated April 8, 1916. Perhaps the pipe as actually installed was thicker than the reported design thickness. During the original survey the same thing occurred. Thickness as great as 0. 425 inches were measured where design thickness was 0.375 inches; 0.440 measured, 0.407 design; and 0.455 measured, 0.435 design. During the first inspection, the bypass valve in the bottom of Salmon Creek Dam was open and the entire valley was full of spray and water so it was impossible to make thicknes-s measurements above the tunnel. During this inspection, it was possible to get access to this portion of the penstock and several measure~ ments were taken. The measured thickness indicated no reduction frorn the design thickness of 0. 25 inches. There are several leaks that should be repaired. It is our opinion, from the data taken, that the penstock is in generally good condition and should have appreciable life remaining without excessive main- tenance assuming that the penstock is operated in the proper manner without . introducing waterhammer surges. It was reported by the operators that occasionally during start up that the penstock is subjected to extremely bad surging with pressures going from the normal 300 + psi operating pressure to as low as 0 and against the peg on the pressure gauge a.t 500 psi. This is extremely hard on the pipe. If the pressures are really going as low as 0, it is quite possible that a column separation is occuring and pressures in ex- cess o£ 500 psi could be experienced. Some method o£ surge control should defintely be incorporated in the automation design. If waterhammer is intro- duced in the pipeline under careful manual operation, it could certainly be introduced during unattended remote control. JA!'.lES M .. MO:~iTGO:"\.tER~ CO:'I:SULTING ENGI:>:E£RS. INC. Alaska Electric Light &: Power -4-• October 18, 1976 ANNEX CREEK PENSTOCK. This penstock like the Upper Salmon Creek penstock is generally in good con- dition. As the pipe is almost entirely exposed the exterior has suffered more corrosion than the Upper Salmon Creek pipe. The original coating has deter- iorated to some extent from the last survey. There is less of the coating on the exposed sides and bottom of the pipe and consequently a little more sur- face pitting. However, this surface pitting is quite shallow. The same condi- tion at some of the joints as were described for the Upper Salmon Creek pen- stock exists on this pen~tock. Condition of the supports in the supported sec- tions is not too good. For this penstock it is our opm10n, from. the data taken. that the penstock is in generally good condition and should have appreciable life remaining without excessive maintenance assuming that the penstock is operated in the proper manner without introducing waterhammer surges. It is possible that some re- placement of the wooden suppo:r:ts will have to be made from time to time as required. The same comments concerning surge control as made for Upper Salmon Creek penstock apply for this penstock. Same provision for surge control should definitely be incorporated in tbe automation design. \ 'Vhile at the Annex Creek Powerhouse an attempt was made to determine the condition of the high pressure cooling water line for the transformers. Be- cause the transducer was for the large size penstocks, it was not possible to obtain a measurement. It is not known when these lines were replaced but s.hould this pipe rupture it could be serious as the high voltage bus i.s just above it. It was a pleasure talking to you while I was in Juneau, We sincerely appreciate your making arrangements for us in Juneau and your invaluable assistance in making arrangements for the replacen'lent ultra sonic equipment, v t;;/J~7A(r;s:.; B. G. Hildyar Vice Presiden /ab LOWER SALMON CREEK PENSTOCK (Flume to Powerhouse No. 1} Left Penstock (Facing Downstream) Station 0 + 00 Powerhouse 0 + 75 1 + 75 3 + 00 4 + 00 5 + 00 6 + 00 7 + 00 8 + 00 9 + 00 ' \ Measured Thickness (Inches) • 095 -• 100 -110 -.. 130 • 100 -• 140 9 + 40 Circumferential Split • 075 -<> 100 .100-.180 .215-.230 .100-.180 .125-.150 .100-.130 • 100 -• 140 11 + 82 (Bottom of Drop from Headworks) Right Penstock Station 0 + 00 Powerhouse 2 + 00 3 + 00 4 + 00 5 + 00 6 + 00 7 + 00 8 + 00 9 + 00 9 + 38 Measured Thickness (Inches) .250 e280 • 110 -. 220 (Heavy PitHng • 115 ..:.. • 140 {Heavy Pitting .250 • 125 -• 240 (Heavy itting .240-.250 .250 • 235 -~250 • .• .J.-\_'1.\ES M. MO:-.:TGO::'>tERY,CO:.'IISULTI!\:G E:-.:GI:\iEERS. INC. 2255 Aven1da De La Playa, La Jolla, Car.rom•a 92037117Hl.C:5S·2931 UPPER SALMON CREEK PENSTOCK (Dam to Powerhouse No. 2) Station Measured Thickness (Inches) Valve House .235 V /S of 1st Bridge .275 D/S Tunnel Portal .345 3 + 35 Below Portal .360 0 + 00 (D/S of Bridge) .340 3 + 12 • 325 3 + 89 .325 4 + 45 (MH) 5 + 93 (Leak at Top of Stair) .330 8 + 83 (Bend D/S of Bridge) .445 11 + 28 . .450 13 + 11 (Bend -Repaired Leak) 14 + 35 (Leak -D/S end of Bridge) 14 + 80 .435 17 + 25 (D/S end of Bridge) 18 + 10 .470 21 + 85 {D/S end of Bridge) .445 23 + 91 (Bend) 25 + 76 .510 29 + 25 (Power House) Design Thickness (Inches) .250 .250 .344 .344 r344 .344 .344 .344 . 406 .406 . 406 . 438 . 438 .469 ' ! • : JA.'\tES l'>L ~to:-;TGO:'>tER'\:CO::"SULTlJ:'I,;G ENGIJS'EERS, INC 2255 A•enica De La P!aya. La Jolla. Cahf:>m•a 92037/ (714) 45~·2931 ANNEX CREEK PENSTOCK •-.,"""' " ~· .. ~ Station Measured Thickness Design Thickness (Inches) (Inches) 0 + 00 (Valve House) • 260 0.250 1 + 6 9 (Anchor) .260 0.250 4 + 70 (U /S Bridge) .255 0.250 6 + 99 (MH) .220 0.250 8 + 89 .240 0.250 10 + 88 (MH) .245 0.250 14 + 35 .245 0.250 14 + 42 (Bend -Open Vent) 15 + 72 .255 0.250 17 + 89 .250 0.250 19 + 24 .240 0.250 20 + 14 (MH) 21 + 56 (Open Vent) ' 22 + 85 ... .250 0.250 23 + 90 {Anchor) 26 + 72 .250 0.250 28 + 23 ·• 250 0.250 29 + 15 (Bend) 30 + 11 .240 0.250 31 + 22 (Bend) 32 + 77 .260 0.250 35 + 30 ,235 0, 250 35 + 36 (MH) 36 + 19 (AV) 38 +57 (AV at Top of Slope) .250 0.250 39 + 23 {Bottom of Slope) 40 + 34 (MH) .245 0,250 41 + 77 (D/S Supported Section) .245 0.250 44 + 67 (AV at Top of Slope at D/S Collapse) .295 .312 45 + 93 (Bottom of Slope) .370 .375 46 + 19 (Repaired Section) .375 .375 47 +51 .365 .375 48 + 81 (Top of Ladder) .395 ~375 50+ 14 .465 • 438 .. .JAll>lES M. !'-lO~"TGO:'o':..t.;J;U:;.co;:.,;slJLTING E:-.:GI~EERS. INC. 2155 Aven;da D~ La Play&. La Jolla. Caiolomoa 92037/(71~1 459-2'931 ANNEX CREEK PENSTOCK (Continued) Station ·51 + 15 (MH) 51 + 43 (Top of Ladder) 52 + 10 (Bottom of Ladder) 52+ 72 55 + 22 (Anchor) 55+ 72 56+ 82 {Air Vent Top of Pipe) 59+ 98 60 + 38 (MH) 61 + 02 {Anchor) 61 + 42 (Top of Ladder) 61 + 92 • 63 + 66 {Top of Long Stair) " 65 + 19 (Top of Steep Slope) 65 + 73 (Bottom of Stair) 66 + 20 68 + 59 {Top of Stair) 70 + 31 70 + 91 (Power H~use) Measured Thickness (Inches) • 435 .450 .430 .460 0 485 .480 .550 .560 .550 .635 • 625 Design Thickness (Inches) .438 .438 .438 .soo .500 .500 ~562 • 562 ~562 • 625 0 625