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HomeMy WebLinkAboutFinancial Analysis for King Cove Hydroelectric Project, May 1984Financial Analysis for KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Submitted by DOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE, ALASKA In Association with TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA DRYDEN & LARUE ANCHORAGE, ALASKA MAY 1984 ...._____ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY -----l ,.... ,.... ,.... - Mr. Robert Loefler Project Manager Alaska Power Authority 334 West 5th Ave. Anchorage, AK 99501 May 21, 1984 Subject: King Cove Hydroelectric Project Finanical Study Dear Mr. Loefler: 4040 "8" Street Anchorage, Alaska 99503 Telephone (907) 562-2000 Transmitted herewith is a report which present the results of an analysis of alternative methods of financing the 575 KW King Cove Hydro- electric Project. The project is located on Delta Creek, about five miles from the town of King Cove, near the western end of the Alaskan Peninsula. A previous report for this project titled Feasibility Study for Kin Cove H droelectric Pro·ect, was presented to the Alaska Power Autho- rity APA) by DOWL Engineers, August 1982. This detailed report showed the project to be economically feas i b 1 e and a recent analysis, using newer costs and energy consumption data, has indicated that the project is still economically viable. The project is a run-of-the-river type consisting of a low weir, about 5 feet high, a 36-inch penstock extending 5,300 feet, and a small powerhouse. No significant environmental impacts, including effects to fisheries, are expected. Both the town of King Cove, and the 1 arge Peter Pan Cannery, currently rely totally on diesel generation to meet their power needs. The energy from this hydroelectric project would be fully utilized by King Cove and the cannery and would supply more than 85 percent of the electrical needs of King Cove in 1986 and 90 more than 65 percent in 2002. The remainder of required energy for King Cove would be supplied by supplemental diesel generation. The general · methodology used for the study consisted of first establishing the financial cost of the "base-case," a continuation of the existing diesel system, and then comparing this cost to the cost of the hydroelectric project using eight APA specified financial plans. The hydroelectric project costs developed for this comparison are the sum of the costs of the hydroelectric system and the costs for the required supplemental disel generation. The analyses were conducted for conditions assuming projected prices with fuel escalation and without fuel escalation. The projections with fuel escalation will be discussed here as this is felt to be the most realistic assumption for future conditions. • May 21, 1984 Page 2 The following alternative financial plans were used in the analyses to finance the hydroelectric facilities: Alt. 1-A: Alt. I-8: Alt. II-A: Alt. II-B: Alt. II-C: Alt. III-A: Alt. III-B: Alt. IV: Tax-exempt revenue bonds. Tax-Exempt revenue bonds with a graduated repayment schedule. 50 % tax-exempt revenue bonds and 50 % state grant. 40 % tax-exempt revenue bonds and 60 % state grant. 43.1 %tax-exempt revenue bonds and 56.9% state grant. State loan at 5.0 %. State loan at 5.0 % with payments deferred for 10 years. State equity financing with 5.0 % return. Due to differences in the monthly generation pattern and the monthly demand pattern for King Cove, surplus hydroenergy will exist in some months. The owners of the local Peter Pan cannery have formally indi- cated a willingness to pay up to 25¢/KWh for any hydropower energy that is available in excess of the village needs. An analyses was therefore made using a range of initial sales prices to the cannery of excess energy of 15¢/KWh to 25¢/KWh, and the mid-range selling price of 20¢/KWh was selected as a reasonable value for discussion purposes. The revenue from such energy sales to the cannery can be applied as a credit to decrease the average unit cost of energy to the King Cover users. Costs for the base case were estimated as of the first year of analysis, 1983, and projected through the 50 year life of the hydroelectric projects extends from 1986 through 2035. Growth and price escalation for both the base case and the hydro project were 1 imited to the 20 year planning period of 1983 through 2002, after which both factors were assumed level until the end of the period of study in 2035. The following table, comparing the cost of hydro power at King Cove with the base case, has been selected from the study results using the assumptions and conditions mentioned above, including sales of excess energy to the cannery at 20¢/KWh. The four examples shown are representative of the eight alternatives studied. I-A: 100% II-A: II I-A: 100% State Base Tax Exempt 50-50 Tax State Loan Equity Case Bonds Ex./Grant @ 5% Int. w/5% Year (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) Return 1986 20 28 15 15 11 1991 26 29 17 18 14 1996 36 30 20 20 17 2002 60 41 32 33 30 fNGIN!·ERS May 21, 1984 Page 3 In analyzing these results, the following general observations can be made: 1. The estimated base case cost of 20 ¢/KWH for 1986 is relatively low compared to a large majority of remote Alaska small diesel systems. This is apparently due to local efficiencies in operation of the King Cove system and low current financing costs. The 1982 AVEC village costs, for example, were estimated to average 43¢/KWh by the Alaska Power Administration. 2. All hydro plans studied eventually result in substantially lower costs than the base case. 3. Alternative I-A (100 percent tax-exempt financing), would take about seven years before the hydro project cost wou 1 d be 1 ess then the base case cost. 4. Alternatives II-A (50% tax-exempt bonds and 50% state grant) and III-A (state loan at 5%) would result in about a 25 percent savings in electricity costs in the first year and the savings increase significantly over 15 years because of the inflation-proofing provided by hydro. 5. It will be noted from the study results that Alternative II-8 {40% tax-exempt bonds and 50% state grant) and Alternative II-C (43.1% tax-exempt bonds and 56.9% state grant) are very similar, but somewhat reduced in cost to Alternative II-A (50% tax-exempt bonds and 50% state grant). 6. Alternative IV (state equity financing with 5% return) results in a substantial reduction in cost because a portion of the 5% return is used to cover annual operating costs. We have enjoyed working on this challenging project and it is our hope that the data provided by this report will help the Alaska Power Authority in their policy and decision making processes. GEL:05150098.21 Very truly yours, OOWL ENGINEERS ~. tz__f\W2)o Melvin R. Nichols, P.E. Partner t)Q_\Y!) ENGINHRS TABLE OF CONTENTS .. SF:IEB:AD1:2-C ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page SUMMARY. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • i I. INTRODUCTION............................................. I-1 A. GENERAL............................................. I-1 B. DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND.......................... I-1 C. OVERVIEW............................................ I-2 0. REPORT FORMAT....................................... I-3 II. GENERAL CRITERIA......................................... Il-l A. GENERAL............................................. Il-l B. FINANCIAL CRITERIA .••••..•.•.....•.. ~............... Il-l C. ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY •.•....••• :................. II-2 D. DIESEL COSTS........................................ 11-4 E. HYDROELECTRIC COSTS................................. II-5 F. OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS..................... II-6 G. CANNERY............................................. II-7 III. FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES A. GENERAL.............................................. III-1 B • BASE CASE • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I I I-1 C. SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL................................. III-2 D. CANNERY............................................. III-2 E. FINANCIAL PLANS..................................... III-3 1. ALTERNATIVE I-A: 100% REVENUE BONOS........... III-4 2. ALTERNATIVE 1-B: 100% REVENUE BONDS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS........................... III-5 SF:IEB:A01:2-TC 3. ALTERNATIVE II-A: 50% REVENUE BONDS/ 50% STATE GRANT.............................. III-5 4. ALTERNATIVE II-B: 40% REVENUE BONDS/ 60% STATE GRANT.............................. III-5 5. ALTERNATIVE II-C: 43.1% REVENUE BONOS/ 56.9% STATE GRANT............................ III-6 6. ALTERNATIVE III-A: STATE LOAN................. III-6 7. ALTERNATIVE III-8: STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT............................. III-6 8. ALTERNATIVE IV: STATE EQUITY FINANCING........ III-7 F. DISCUSSION OF ANALYSIS.............................. III-7 APPENDIX A: PROJECT DRAWINGS APPENDIX 8: APA ANALYSIS PARAMETERS APPENDIX C: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS UPDATE LETTER APPENDIX D: DIESEL ANALYSES APPENDIX E: HYDROELECTRIC ANALYSES APPENDIX F: CANNERY ANALYSES APPENDIX G: FINANCIAL SUMMARIES WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION SF:IEB:A01:2-TC SU*ARY SF:IEB:AD1:2-C ··~ SUMMARY This report presents the results of an analysis of various alternative possible methods of financing the King Cove Hydroelectric Project (Project). A detailed report for this project titled Feasibility Study for King Cove Hydroelectric Project, was presented to the Alaska Power Authority (APA) by DOWL Engineers, August 1982. This report showed the project to be economi- cally feasible and a recent economic analysis, updated using newer costs and energy consumption data, has indicated that the project is still economically viable. Various methods considered for financing the project include tax-exempt revenue bonds, state grants, state loans at five percent interest, and a state equity investment yielding a five percent annual return. The alternatives are addressed in detail in Section III of this report. The average cost of energy to consumers was calculated on an annual basis for each alternative. The cost of power to the users will vary depending on the type of financ- ing chosen, which could include various uses of state grants, loans, or equity financing. The actual cost of power may be slightly greater or less than the costs presented in this report. Variables that may influence the cost of power include a conservative, and therefore potentially high, cost estimate; potentially low initial energy sales; and potentially high load growth. The APA estimate of the actual cost of power is slightly less than the cost of power presented in this report. No attempt will be made here to select the best method of financing the Project, as this is a policy decision and as such is beyond the scope of this report. The intent of this report is to present data and the results of the various analyses so that the information is available for the policy and decision making processes. i SF:IEB:AD1:2-S PROJECT DESCRIPTION The recommended project has an installed capacity of 575 kW and is located on Delta Creek, a small stream about five miles from the town of King Cove, near the western end of the Alaskan Peninsula. The project is a run-of- the-river type consisting of a low weir, about 5 feet high, which diverts the stream into a 36-inch penstock which then extends 5,300 feet to a small power- house 235 feet lower in elevation where the 575 kW turbine generator is located. The diverted flows are then returned to Delta Creek. No significant environmental impact, including damage to fisheries, is expected. Both the town of King Cove, and the large Peter Pan Cannery, currently rely totally on diesel generation to meet their electrical needs. This hydroelectric project would be capable of supplying approximately 89 percent of the e.lectrical needs of King Cove in 1986 and 67 percent in 2002. Some supp 1 ementa I d i ese 1 generation would, however, still be necessary. All surplus hydroelectric energy not used by King Cove could be sold to the cannery and a firm interest by the cannery has been expressed in this regard. STUDY METHODOLOGY The general methodology of the study consisted of first establishing the financial cost of the ~base-case" alternative for King Cove and then comparing this cost to the cost of the hydroelectric project using eight specified financial alternatives. The purpose of this comparison of the base case to the financial alternatives was to demonstrate how each of the financial alter- native plans studied compared with the actual avoided financial cost of the base case. STUDY ASSUMPTIONS The planning period for the project begins with January 1983 and extends 20 years, including 1983 and 2002. The hydroelectric project was assumed to be on-1 i ne by January 1986 and the avera 11 analysis extends 50 years beyond this time (1983-2035). The analysis was conducted assuming a general infla- tion rate of 6.5 percent for all costs for the 20-year planning period and a zero inflation rate thereafter. Since most economists predict a long-term i i SF:IEB:A01:2-S ..... additional escalation in the cost of fuel above the general inflation rate, the analysis was a 1 so conducted both with and without an add it i ana 1 fue 1 escalation of 3.0 percent applied over the period 1989-2002. The proposed hydroelectric project will sometimes produce more power than King Cove can use and the financial impact on the unit energy cost to King Cove of se 11 i ng this excess energy to the cannery at sever a 1 a 1 tern at i ve selling prices was also analyzed. In allocating the use of the hydroelectric energy, it was assumed that the first use would be to meet the electrical demands of King Cove. If excess energy then remained, it would be sold to the cannery. All energy generated by the hydroelectric project can be used by these two demands. FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES As specified by the APA, four basic alternative methods of financing the project were considered. These were (1) 10 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds alone, (2) state grants in conjunction with 10 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds, (3) direct state financing at 5 percent interest and (4) state equity financing with a 5 percent annual return. bonds and state loans would be 35 years. The repayment peri ad of revenue Two different repayment schedules were considered for the tax-exempt revenue bonds alone, three different combinations of the state grants in conjunction with the tax-exempt revenue bonds were considered, and two different payback schemes for the direct state financing were considered. This resulted in a total of eight different alternative plans, each of which was analyzed both with three percent real fuel escalation and without real fuel escalation. The results of the analysis are shown in the summary Tables S-1 (with fuel escalation) and S-2 (without fuel escalation). A summary description of the plans is presented below. 1. Alternative I-A. Tax-exempt Revenue Bonds with a levelized repay- ment schedule. i i i SF:IEB:AD1:2-S 2. Alternative I-8. Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds with a graduated repay- ment schedule. This plan allows initial annual payments that result in an overall average unit energy cost equal to the base case for the first year of hydro generation and then calls for increases in annual payments at a maximum rate of 9.5 percent until a levelized payment can be made by fully amortizing the outstanding principal over the remainder of the 35-year financing period without exceeding the maximum rate of increase. Lower rates of maximum annual increase were considered and found to be infeasible. 3. Alternative II-A. 50 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and 50 per- cent state grant. 4. A 1 ternat i ve II-B. 40 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and 60 per- cent state grant. 5. Alternative II-C. 43.1 56.9 percent state grant. percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and For this plan the tax-exempt revenue bond portion was established by solving for the amount of debt service that would yield an average unit cost of energy equal to the base- case unit cost of energy in 1986. 6. Alternative III-A -State loan for 35 years at five percent. 7. Alternative III-B -State loan at five percent with principal and interest payments deferred for 10 years. Payments for the first 10 years would be O&M only, and the principal and deferred interest of the loan would be fully amortized over the remaining 25 years of the 35-year financing period. 8. Alternative IV -State equity financing with return to the state on investment equal to five percent of capital cost. The operation and maintenance expenses of the hydroelectric project would be paid from the return to the state. iv SF:IEB:AD1:2-S DISCUSSION OF RESULTS Summary results of the financial analyses in terms of the unit cost of energy in cents per kilowatt hour are presented in Table S-1 (three percent real fuel escalation) and Table S-2 (no real fuel escalation). The two base- case costs are shown on Figure S-1 to show the marked effect of fuel escala- tion on the cost of the avoided diesel system and to show a general comparison of the cost of two hydro financial alternatives with these base cases. More details are presented in the body of the report. The most realistic basis for evaluation of the various alternatives studied to finance the King Cove Hydroelectric Project is a comparison of the energy costs of the base case with the costs of the hydroe 1 ectri c project, using the alternative financial plans studied. The most logical hydro devel- opment plan would assume that the historical inflation levels would persist and that credits to the hydro plan should also be included for sales of excess village hydropower to the cannery, since the owners of the cannery have indi- cated a willingness to pay up to 25 cents per kilowatt-hour for this energy. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, testing initial energy sales prices to the cannery ranging from 15¢/KWh to 25¢/KWh. The mid-range se 11 i ng price of 20¢/KWh was selected as a reasonably conservative value for discussion purposes in this executive summary. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to test the effects of excluding real fuel escalation and the elimination of cannery credits on the price of electricity at King Cove. The latter is not a true representation of future conditions as the surplus hydropower energy would have some economic value even if it was not sold to the cannery, such as displacing heating oils for space heating, which was demonstrated as a viable economic option in the feasibility study. For use in this comparative analysis, developing the cost of the base case was given careful attention. Through cooperative efforts of the King Cove City Manager and his staff, local Alaska consultants and APA personnel, representative existing diesel electricity costs were estimated for the first year of analysis, 1983, and projected through the 50 year life of the hydroelectric project extending from 1986 through 2035. Growth and price escalation were limited to the 20 year period of 1983 through 2002, after v SF:IEB:A01:2-S which both factors were assumed to be zero until the end of the period of study in 2035. The estimated base case cost of 20 cents per kilowatt-hour for 1986, the projected first year when the hydro project is assumed on-line, is a very important benchmark for comparative analysis. It should be noted that this cost is relatively low compared to a large majority of remote Alaska small diesel systems due to local efficiencies in operation of the King Cover system and low financing costs. In the sixth hydro year (1991}, base case costs would rise to 26¢/KWh, in the 11th year {1996) to about 36¢/KWh, (almost double the current rate) and in the 17th year {2002) to 60¢/KWh {about triple the current rate). Thus, for comparison with the hydro project, base case diesel costs increase from 20¢/KWh to 60¢/KWh in 17 years. (It is noteworthy that average AVEC village diesel costs were estimated to average 43¢/KWh in 1982 by the DOE Alaska Power Administration.) If the summary Table S-1 of 24 possible combinations {i.e. eight basic alternatives with three cannery alternatives for each) is condensed to some of the most significant findings for several selected financial alternatives, the following table can be derived. Also, Figure S-1 presents the same data graphically for the base case, and hydro alternatives 1-A and III-A. As can be noted, alternatives II-A and III-A are very similar and II-A was therefore not included. With 20¢/kWh Cannert Credit I II -A: 100% State Equity I-A: 100% Tax II-A: 50-50 State Loan with 5% Base Case Exemp., Level Tax Ex./Grant @ 5% Int. , Leve 1 Return Year {¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) 1986 20 28 15 15 11 1991 26 29 17 18 14 1996 36 30 20 20 17 2002 60 41 32 33 30 vi SF:IEB:AD1:2-S made: In analyzing these results9 the following general observations can be 1. With 100 percent tax-exempt financing and levelized payments (I-A) it would take about seven years before local interests would be able to take advantage of savings created by the hydro project. 2. The plan reflecting a 50/50 tax-exempt financing/state grant {II-A), and the plan with a 100 percent state loan at 5 percent interest and levelized payments (III-A) would both produce essentially the same cost of power. These p 1 ans wou 1 d . resu 1 t in about a 25 percent savings in electricity costs in the first year and increase signifi- cantly over 15 years because of the inflation-proofing provided by hydro. 3. Other apparent observations from an analysis of the summary Table S-1 indicated: a. Financial alternatives II-A, II-B, II-C, III-A and IV have very similar results. b. The graduated payment approach applied to the 100 percent tax- exempt financing (I-B) would bring the base case and hydro case costs to approximate equality in the 11th year, providing some savings in prior and subsequent years. There could be a number of ways graduated payments could be derived other than the assumed use of the APA price inflation rates. c. There is very little difference between the 40/60 tax- exempt/State grant financing (II-B), and the financial plan that derives the 43/57 percent combination that will just equal the base case diesel costs (II-C). However, both plans increase the savings over the base case to some 40 percent in the first year. vii SF:IEB:AD1:2-S d. The five percent State equity plan (IV) increases the savings a small percentage over the two plans discussed in c. above. e. The 10-year deferral on the State loan (III-B) produces savings of over 90 percent when compared to the base case in 1986, but increases in the 11th year by about 25 times from the starting point, which seems impractical. Nevertheless, the 11th year rate is some 15 percent to 20 percent below the base case. Sensitivity analyses excluding real fuel escalation and cannery credits, as shown on summary Table S-2, suggests that it would generally require a 40/60 tax-exempt/grant relationship (II-B) to produce costs comparable to the base case in the first year. Savings at about 25-30 percent over base costs would accrue in the 11th year. Since by the study ground rules. rea.l fuel escalation does not begin until several years into the hydro analysis (1988), the affect on savings is not importantly felt until about year 11 and thereafter. For example, the base case would show costs to be some 15 percent less when fuel escalation is removed. Since these sensitivity tests produce an additional possible 24 hydro combinations, various other combinations can be reviewed by reference to Table S-2. viii SF:IEB:A01:2-S TABLE S-1 S!MtARY Of All FINANCIAL PLANs.!/ (With Real Fuel Escalation) Combinations of Tax-Exempt 100% Tax-Exempt Bonds!/ Bonds and State Grants 21 State loans 2/ 1-A 1-B II-A 11-B 11-C lil-A Base Level Graduated 50/5o.?1 40/60~1 43/57?./ Level Hydro CaseY Payments~/ PaymentsY Payments~/ Year Year (f/KW!J) Jf/KWh) (f/KWh) <fll<Wh) (f/KWh) <fiKWh) (f/KWh) 1986 19.87 34.99 19.87 21.70 19.04 19.87 22.11 6 1991 25.93 34.99 29.31 23.65 21.38 22.08 24.00 11 1996 35.51 34.85 39.69 25.19 23.26 23.86 25.49 17 2002 59.74 44.74 50.14 36.82 35.24 35,72 37.07 36 2021 65.03 34.19 34.19 34.19 34.19 34.19 34.19 50 2035 65,03 34.19 34.19 34.19 34.19 34.19 34.19 ~/ See Table D-1. Cost of continued existing diesel system, with real fuel escalation. ?I Costs of financial plans are the sum of supplemental diesel and hydroelectric costs, 3/ See Table E-1, 4! See Table E-2, ~/ See Table E-3, ~/ See Table E-4. 71 See Table E-5. 8/ See Table E-6. 9/ See rable E-7. 10/ See Table E-8. 11/ See Table F-1, SF: IE8:AD1 :2-S-1 ix 111-B Deferred Payments2/ (f/KWh) 8.41 12.30 34.37 44.35 34.19 34.19 Potential State EguitxlQI!/ Price Reduction for Cannerx 111!/ IV Initial Initial Initial Price= Price= Price 15fll<Wh 20f/KWh 25f/KWh (f/KWh) <f/KWh l (f/KWh l Jf/KWhl 18.30 5.30 7,07 8.83 20.61 4.66 6.21 7.76 22.46 3.94 5.26 6.57 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 Base Hydro CaseY Year Year Jf/KWh) 1986 19,87 6 1991 24,65 1996 30,48 17 2002 45,72 36 2021 51,01 50 2035 51,01 1/ See Table D-2, Cost 2! Costs of financial p Set< Table G-1, 4/ See Table G-2, )/ See Table G-3. 6/ See Table G-4. 7; See Table G-:>, tl/ See Table G-6, See lable G-7, l Se"' Table G-8, II! See Table F-2, : 1E~'· " ;2-!' " lABl£ S-2 SlM4ARY Of A.Ll FINANCIAl PLANsJ_/ (Without Real Fuel Escalation) Combinations of Tax-Exempt 100% Tax-Exem~t Bonds!1 Bonds and State Grants 2/ State Loans 21 1-A 1-B II-A 11-8 11-C lil-A 111-B Level Graduated 50/50~1 40/60~1 43/57:?/ Level Deferred Payments~/ PaymentsY Payments!!/ Payments21 lf/KWh) \fLK_Whl Cf/I(Wh) (f/KWh) (f/KWh) (f/KWh) (f/KWh) 34,99 19,87 21.70 19,04 19,87 22,11 8,41 34.77 29,08 23,42 21.15 21,86 23,71 12.07 33,61 38,46 23,96 22,03 22,63 24.26 33,14 40,16 45,55 32,24 30,65 31 ,14 32,48 39,11 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29,60 29.60 of continued existing diesel system, without real fuel escalation, ans are the sum of supplemental diesel and hydroelectric costs, )( Potential State EguittlQ/!1 Price Reduction for Cannert!l1!1 IV Initial Initial Initial Price.: Price= Price 15f/KWh 20f/KWh 25f/KWh (f/KWh) (f/KWh) (f/KWh) (f/KWh) 18,30 5,30 1,07 8,83 20,39 4,43 5,90 7,38 21,23 3,39 4,51 5,64 29,78 2.32 3,09 3,87 35,06 2,59 3,45 4,31 35,06 2,59 3,45 4,31 "' .s::. ::t ~ ' U) 1-z w u ..., 1- U) 0 u >-l7 a:: w z w BB ?B 60 50 40 38 20 10 0 1980 BASE CASE\ f ~ II 7 (HYDR p ALTER~ ATIVE I A ,---~ ~--.1 \ _,.l __ / I \ /I --t r r--1 i/I-' \ ,-7-/ -cHYDR ... , I I I I p ALTER!I flTIVE I I-A I/ / ~ / \ 1- L 1990 2000 2810 YEAR 2020 2838 1. Costs include general inflation and real fuel escalation. 2. Hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental diesel. I I 2840 3. Hydro alternatives include adjustment for energy sold to cannery. 4. Hydro Alternative I-A is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds, 35 years @ 10%. 5. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years @ 5%. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ FUEL ESCALATION,W/ CANNERY CANNERY CREDIT @ 20 c/kWh FOR 1986 xi FIGURE S-I SF:IEB:AD1:2-C SECTION I INTRODUCTION A. GENERAL SECTION I INTRODUCTION The Alaska Power Authority (APA) is considering a hydroelectric development at the village of King Cove. Previous studies have shown the project to be economically feasi b 1 e and the purpose of this report is to present alternative methods of financing the project. B. DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND King Cove is located at the western end of the Alaska Peninsula, near the beginning of the A 1 eut ian Is 1 and Chain. The hydroe 1 ectri c Project would be located on Delta Creek, about 5 miles north of town. The project would include a low diversion weir, a 36-inch diameter penstock about one mi1e in length and a 575-kilowatt powerhouse which would produce 2.28 mil- lion kilowatt hours of electrical energy in an average year. The total construction cost for the project at January 1983 price levels would be approximately $3,817,000. The Project was studied by DOWL Engineers in 1981 and 1982 and was found to be economically feasible with only minor environmental effects. The results of this study were presented in a report titled Feasibility Study for King Cove Hydroelectric Project, OOWL Engineers, August 1982. The project drawings from the feasibility report are presented as Appendix A. The economic analysis for the project was updated in early Apri 1, 1984, using current cost and energy consumption data. A copy of the letter describing this economic analysis is included as Appendix B. Using the standard APA economic criteria with an inflation-free dis- count rate of 3.5 percent, a benefit/cost ratio was derived of 1.3. This analysis included the cannery benefits expressed in terms of savings in variable diesel operating costs as a benefit to the hydro project. Since these benefits were assumed to be the same as the village avoided diesel I-1 SF:IEB:A01:2-I costs, this approach was cons ide red to be conservative. s i nee these costs amounted to slightly less than 12¢/kWh and the cannery has expressed interest in purchasing the power at prices up to 25¢/KWh. The 1.3 B/C ratio roughly compares to 1.8 8/C ratio appearing in the feasibility report, which c;tl so included simi 1 ar cannery benefits. The difference l s due to a combination of the higher interest rate, the reduced current and projected fuel prices recently experienced, and a reduction in the cannery benefits claimed which was restricted to the savings in variable operating costs. C. OVERVIEW The main objective of an economic analysis is to determine the inher- ent economic viability; that is. how do the economic benefits of the proj- ect compare to the economic costs. This comparison is independent of the method of financing, taxes, and any other costs that may be peculiar to the enterprise owning the project. As mentioned above, the economic analyses have indicated that this project is viable. The objective of a financial analysis, which is the subject of this report. is to determine how the costs associ a ted with a project wi 11 be paid, and the cash flows that would result from various alternative courses of action. Interest rates, amortization payment periods, inflation, and taxes are factors that must be considered by a financial analysis that are often not considered in an economic analysis. The financial analyses for this project were conducted according to the general criteria set forth by the APA, "Analysis Parameters for the 1984 Fiscal Year." A copy of these criteria is included as Appendix C. The alternative financial plans studied are described in Section III of this report. In addition to the alternative financial analyses, a financial analysis for the base case has also been included for comparison purposes. The base case is an estimate of the configuration and costs that would occur in King Cove if the exist- ing diesel generator system continues and is expanded as necessary to meet the projected demand over the study period. I-2 SF:IEB:AD1:2-I The costs associated with the proposed project include both hydroelec- tric costs and supplemental diesel costs. Even with the hydroe 1 ectri c project~ it is necessary to maintain sufficient diesel capacity at King Cove to meet maximum demands because the hydroelectric project may not meet the full King Cove demands. The electrical demand satisfied by the system would include the village electrical demand~ and the use of excess electri- city by the cannery. Inasmuch as the cannery can uti 1 i ze a 11 excess energy, benefits possible from waste heat recovery were not included. This analysis describes the forecasted unit cost of power for the base case and the hydroelectric projects for the various financial alternative studied. In allocating this excess energy, it was assumed that the village electrical ne.eds would be met first, andt if excess hydroelectric energy remained and sufficient demand existed at the cannery, then the excess electricity would be sold to the cannery. The portion of the cannery energy demand that could be satisfied by the hydroelectric project was included as supplemental revenues from the sale of this power at alterna- tive sales prices. This supplemental revenue can then be applied to decrease the cost of power for King Cove. D. REPORT FORMAT The report is presented with a summary, three chapters of text with figures and selected tables, and seven appendices. An effort has been made to make the report more readable by including only key tables with the report text and placing the majority of the tables for the diesel analyses, hydroelectric analyses, and cannery analyses in the respective appendices. Two summary tables for each alternative financial plan studied (one for with fuel escalation and one for without fuel escalation) were prepared and the eight with fuel escalation tables (considered to represent the most realistic case) were included with Section III. The eight without fuel escalation summaries were placed in Appendix G. I-3 SF:IEB:A01:2-I Appendix A, "Project Drawings'' Appendix 8 9 "APA Analysis Parameters", and Appendix C, "Economic Analysis Update letter'', were included to provide background material and criteria. I-4 SF:IEB:AD1:2-I SF:IEB:A01:2-C SECTION II GENERAL CRITERIA .-, A. GENERAL SECTION II GENERAL CRITERIA The King Cove Hydroelectric Project was assessed in order to determine the cost of power production for alternative energy supply systems and alternative methods of financing. The financial alternatives studied were specified in the APA and are described in Section III of this report. The alternative energy systems considered include diesel generation alone (Base Case) and hydroelectric generation supplemented by diesel generation (Hydroelect~ic Case). Both the Base Case and Hydroelectric Case were for- mulated to meet the same energy needs for King Cove, as projected over the study period. B. FINANCIAL CRITERIA The assumptions that form the basis for this analysis are founded to as great an extent as possible on the APA standard criteria. Additional criteria utilized are described below. In accordance with APA criteria, the planning period for the project is 20 years and begins in January 1983 and extends through 2002. The hydroelectric project was assumed to be on-line by January 1986, and the analysis extends 50 years beyond this time through 2035, for a total eval- uation period of 53 years. Assumptions for energy demand projections together with general inflation and real fuel escalation were applied over the 20 year planning period and were then assumed as level over the remaining 33 years of the study period. The analyses for the study were conducted both with and without real fuel escalation. As per APA criteria, a general inflation rate of 6.5 per- cent was assumed for all costs. The prices of fuel oil and lubrication oil were increased at the general 6.5 percent inflation rate from January 1983 through the end of 1988. These prices were then esc a 1 a ted at an annua 1 II-1 SF: IEB:AOl :2-II rate of 9.5 percent for the with real fuel escalation case from January 1989 to the end of the planning period in order to reflect a real fuel cost escalation of three percent annually. For the without real fuel escalation case the inflation rate used was 6.5 percent as for all other costs. All costs for both the with and without real fuel escalation cases were then assumed to remain constant after the last cost escalation occurs in 2002, the last year of the planning period. The costs were then held constant at the 2002 value for the remainder of the period of economic evaluation through 2035. The interest rate for bond sales and sinking funds was assumed to be 10 percent, representing an average for current market rates. The interest rate for state loans was assumed to be five percent. The economic life of the hydroelectric project facilities was assumed to be 50 years. The economic project life for diesel engines was assumed to be 15 years for the existing equipment and 20 years for capacity addi- tions; the added machinery was assumed to have a greater capacity and was given a longer life according to APA criteria. All costs, including operation, maintenance costs and capital costs were assigned to the year in which they would occur. Capital costs were assumed to be equal to the sum of the construction costs and interest during construction, financing charges, and reserve funds, as applicable. The first debt service payment ·.-~as shown in the year following the capital cost. Replacement costs were handled by the use of a sinking fund and were assumed to occur over the project study period. C. ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY The energy demand and supply for the village of King Cove were deter- mined from records and analysis of the existing system. This determination was made by the consultants in cooperation with APA and the village of King Cove. The current and projected cannery demands were obta; ned by the APA from the Peter Pan cannery. The historical generation records for December 1982 through November 1983 were used as a base period to determine the II-2 SF: IEB:AD1:2-II pattern of monthly demands as percentages of annual demand. The demand for December 1983 was synthesized by escalating the December 1982 demand of 3.7 percent. The demands for 1983 were then used to determine the pattern of demand. The monthly demand data was obtained from the King Cove City Clerk in December 1983. The actual data for December 1982 through April 1983 is not accurate due to inadequate meters on the electrical supply system and was adjusted to reflect the increase in consumption indicated by the repair and installation of meters in May 1983. The annual energy demands for residential, commercial, school consumers and the cannery are shown on Table II-1. The village metered demand as reflected in the records was increased by 26 percent to include losses and nonmetered demand. The village demands were escalated as shown over the 20 year planning period and then assumed to remain level and the cannery demands were escalated over a 5 year period and then assumed to remain level. The village demand is the sum of residential, commercial, and school demands. The residential demand was increased to meet demands associated with work currently under construction or currently planned for 1984 and 1985. Following 1985, the residential demand was escalated at 3.7 percent annually for the remainder of the planning period. The commercial load growth was assumed to be 3.7 percent for the entire planning period. The school will be expanded by 40 percent by January 1986; this was the only increase in school demand considered. The load growth at the cannery was based on data supp 1 i ed by APA and reflects a constant 1 oad over the entire period of analysis for May through August and an increase in monthly energy consumption from 134.4 MWh/month in 1983 to 250.0 MWh/month for 1987 for the months September through April. The annual supply and distribution of energy over the study period to meet these demands is shown on Table II-2, indicating the hydroelectric and diesel requirements of the village system and the amount of excess hydro- electric energy available for sale to the cannery. This data is also pre- sented graphically on a monthly basis in Figure II-1 for 1986, the first II-3 SF:IEB:A01:2-II year of hydroelectricity generation and for 2002, the last year of the 20-year planning period. These figures illustrate that as the village demand increases over time, less excess energy is available for the cannery. D. DIESEL COSTS The costs of diesel generation were taken from the King Cove Feasibi- lity Report and modified according to new information as available. The costs of diesel generation were assumed to include debt service, insurance, operation and maintenance, lubrication oil, and fuel oil. The cost of the existing diesel system was assumed to be approximately $700 per kilowatt of installed capacity. Debt service for the existing diesel system was assumed to be equivalent to a loan at five percent interest for 15 years which is comparable to the data provided by King Cove. The existing engines would be replaced every 15 years with future replacements being financed at 10 percent annual interest. A capacity addition would be made in 1988. This addition would be replaced every 20 years and would also be financed at 10 percent interest. The existing system consists of two 300 kW machines that provide the major portion of power used in the village and the 250 kW machine serves primarily as a standby system. The APA criteria specifies a 10 year econo- mic life for diesel machines less than 300 kW and 20 years for machines greater than 300 kW. An average 1 ife of 15 years was assumed for the 300 kW machines. The capacity expansion for 1988 was assumed to be one 530 kW machine and was assigned a useful life of 20 years. No added life was assumed for the diesel engines for the hydroelectric case. The machines would operate for significantly less time under the with hydro case and should have longer lives; however, because of the uncertainty associated with the availability of parts and maintenance, this credit was not considered. II-4 SF:IEB:AD1:2-II The cost of insuring the diesel power plant was assumed to be $0.80 per $100 of replacement value. This rate represents current insurance rates for Alaska. The existing plant was assumed to have a replacement value of $595,000. This replacement cost was assumed to be subject to inflation at 6.5 percent annually. Insurance costs were based on the cost of equipment at the time of purchase and were only escalated at the time of replacement. The cost of oil is the sum of the cost of fuel oil and lubrication oil. The existing system produces 11.5 kWh of electricity per gallon of fuel; this average rate will increase to 13.75 kWh per gallon with the capacity expansion in 1988. This increase in generation is due to the greater efficiency of the machine being considered for the expansion, which produces about 15 kWh/gallon by itself. The rate of consumption of lubri- cation oil was assumed as 0.55 percent of the fuel oil consumption rate. The cost of fuel oil was established as $1.13/gallon and of lubrica- tion oil as $3.80/gallon, at January 1983 price levels. This cost was escalated at 6.5 percent annually through 1988, followed by escalation through year 2002 at 9.5 percent annually for the with fuel escalation case and 6.5 percent for the without fuel escalation case. E. HYDROELECTRIC COSTS Costs associ a ted with the hydroelectric project were taken from the feasibility report and updated. These costs include amortization, opera- tion and maintenance, and a replacement sinking fund. All hydroelectric costs were escalated from January 1982 to January 1984 using the indices for hydroelectric construction published in 11 Engineering News and Record 11 (ENR). This resulted in a 2.0% increase for 1982 and a 1.3% increase for 1983. The January 1984 costs were then escalated at 6.5 percent interest, in accordance with APA criteria to January 1985, the assumed bid date for the project. A construction cost estimate summary from the Feasibility Report is included as Table II-3. The construction cost from the feasibility study, at January 1982 price levels, was estimated as $3,743,900. This cost would II-5 SF: IEB:AD1:2-II escalate as described above to $4,118,000 by January 1985. The cost of debt service for each financial alternative is addressed in Section III. Two rep 1 acement costs were considered for the hydroe 1 ectri c project: the cost of replacing the turbine runner after 25 years of operation, and the cost of replacing the transmission line that would tie the plant to the village distribution system every 30 years. The 30-year economic life of the transmission lines is based on observation of existing lines. The cost of replacing the runner was estimated as $95,000 at January 1983 price levels, and the cost of replacing the lines was estimated as $619,600 at January 1983 price levels. The ENR cost indices indicate a decrease of 0.7 percent in the cost of transmission lines from January 1982 to January 1983. Sinking funds were estab 1 i shed to meet these costs. The costs were escalated to their actual date of occurrence at 6.5 percent annual inflation. F. OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS The operation of the existing diesel system (base cost) for King Cove for 1983 has been taken as $30,000 per year p 1 us a vari ab 1 e expense of $11.75 per megawatt hour of generation. The $30,000 was derived by esti- mating that 25 percent or $25,000 of the approximately $100,000 annual King Cove labor cost for sewer, water, diesel generated electrical distribution system (the same crew operates all facilities) could be allocated to the generation system. An additional $5,000 was then added for plant miscel- laneous consumables, a general "all other expenses 11 estimate, for a total fixed cost of $30,000 per year. The variable cost of $11.75 per MWhr was derived from manufacturer's data for average minor and major overhauls and emergency maintenance costs for a given number of hours of operation of the units. S i nee the same crew wou 1 d operate the hydroe 1 ectri c project, which would be composed of the hydroelectric facilities and the same supplemental diesel system as the base case, the same $30,000 annual fixed cost was used for the hydroelectric project and an additional $5,000 per year was allowed for "all other expenses" for the hydroelectric facilities, for a total II-6 SF:IEB:A01:2-II initial fixed cost for 1983 of $35,000 per year. The same $11.75 per MWhr was then also applied for the supplemental diesel generation. The O&M costs for both the base case and hydroe 1 ectri c project case were allowed to inflate at 6.5 percent per year over the planning period of 1983 through 2002. G. CANNERY The proposed hydroelectric project will produce significantly more electrical energy than can be used in the village. This energy could be sold to the cannery and the revenue could be used to offset the cost of energy to the village. This cannery cost reduction was considered for a range of prices and for both the cases of with rea 1 fue 1 esc a 1 at ion and without real fuel escalation. II-7 SF:IEB:AD1:2-II TABLE II-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ANNUAL ENERGY DEMAND APRIL 1984 YEAR RESID. COMMER. SCHOOL VILLAGE VILLAGE ACTUAL DEMAND <MWh) (5) CANNERY DEMAND 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2035 DEMAND DEMAND DEMAND METERED DE~1AND <1'1Wh) 01Wh) ( MWh) < MWh) (1) (2) (3) (4) 616.34 754.73 893.14 926.31 960.71 996.39 1033.39 1071.76 1111.57 1152.85 1195.66 1240.06 1286.13 1333.88 1383.42 1434.80 1488.08 1543.34 1600.67 1660.10 1660.10 289.41 300.16 311.31 322.87 334.86 347.29 360.19 373.57 387.44 401.83 416.75 432.23 448.28 464.93 482.20 500.10 518.68 537.94 557.91 578.63 578.63 150.00 150.00 150.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 210.00 1055.74 1204.89 1354.44 1459.17 1505.57 1553.68 1603.58 1655.33 1709.02 1764.69 1822.41 1882.28 1944.40 2008.81 2075.63 2144.89 2216.77 2291.28 2368.56 2448.74 2448.74 1328.34 1516.00 1704.17 1835.94 1894.30 1954.84 2017.61 2082.75 2150.28 2220.33 2292.97 2368.30 2446.45 2527.48 2611.55 2698.69 2789.14 2882.90 2980.12 3080.99 3080.99 (MWh) (6) 3763.20 3943. 67 41!54.41 4400.56 4688.00 4688.00 4688.00 4688.00 4638.00 4688.00 46:38. 00 4638.00 4688.00 4638.00 4638.00 4638.00 4688.00 4638.00 4638.00 46:38.00 4638.00 TOTAL DEt1AHD 01Wh) (7) 5091.54 5459.66 5858.59 6236.50 6582.31 6642.84 6705.61 6770. 75 68:38. 2:3 6908 .. :33 6980.97 7056.30 7134.45 7215.47 7299.55 7386.69 7477.14 7570.90 7668.12 7768.99 7768. 9'3 (l)Add 4 hom~s in 1984,6 hom~s in 1985,then increas~ at 3.7~ annually. (2)Annual i ncr~as~=3. 7%. (3)School capacit~ expanded in 1986. C4)Sum of met~red r~sidential,commercial,and school demands. (5)126% of metered demand for non-meter~d demand and losses. (6)Total cannery demand. (7)Total system demand including cannery. II-8 TABLE 11-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ANNUAL ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY APRIL 1984 YEAR VILLAGE HYDRO HYDRO DIESEL SURPLUS CANNERY HYDRO SURPLUS ELECTRIC SUPPLY USED BY USED BY HYDRO ELECTRIC IJSED BY H'r'DRO DEMAND VILLAGE VILLAGE WITHOUT DEMAND (:ANNERY WITH CANNERY CANNERY <MWh) <MWh) <MWh) <MWh) <MWh) <MWh) <MWh) <MWh> (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 1328.34 0.00 0.00 1328.34 0.00 3763.20 0.00 0.00 1984 1516.00 0.00 0.00 1516.00 0.00 3943.67 0.00 0.00 1985 1704.17 0.00 0.00 1704.17 0.00 4154.41 0.00 0.00 1986 1835.94 2280.00 1631.23 204.71 648.78 4400.56 648.78 0.00 1987 1894.30 2280.00 1659.60 234.71 620.41 4688.00 620.41 0.00 1988 1954.84 2280.00 1685.37 269.47 594.63 4688.00 594.63 0.00 1989 2017.61 2280.00 1712.10 305.52 567.90 4688.00 567.90 0.00 1990 2082.75 2280.00 1739.83 ·342.91 540.17 4688.00 540.17 0.00 1991 2150.28 2280.00 1768.60 381.69 511.41 4688.00 511.41 0.00 1992 2220.33 2280.00 1798.42 421.91 481.59 4688.00 481.59 0.00 1993 2292.97 2280.00 1827.96 465.00 452.04 4688.00 452.04 0.00 1994 2368.30 2280.00 1853.72 514.58 426.28 4688.00 426.28 0.00 1995 2446.45 2280.00 1880.44 566.00 399.56 4688.00 399.56 0.00 1996 2527.48 2280.00 1908.14 619.33 371.86 4688.00 371.86 0.00 1997 2611.55 2280.00 1936.88 674.66 343.11 4688.00 343. 11 0.00 1998 2698.69 2280.00 1966.68 732.01 313.31 4688.00 313.31 0.00 1999 2789.14 2280.00 1997.61 791. 53 282.40 4688.00 282.40 0.00 2000 2882.90 2280.00 2023.05 859.84 256.95 4688.00 256.95 0.00 2001 2980.12 2280.00 2047.50 932.63 232.50 4688.00 232.50 0.00 2002 3080.99 2280.00 2072.87 1008.12 207.13 4688.00 207.13 0.00 2035 3080.99 2280.00 2072.87 1008.12 207.13 4688.00 207.13 0.00 < 1) See Tab 1 e II-1 (2)Average annual generation <3>Annual village demand supplied by hydro <4>Annual village demand supplied by diesel <5>Hydro available for sale to the cannery <6>Total cannery demand. <7 >Actual hydro sold to cannery (8)Excess hydro after sales to cannery II-9 Item TABLE II-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY (JANUARY 1982 PRICE LEVELS) Mobilization and Demobilization Diversion Dam Intake Penstock Powerhouse Access Road Transmission Line Contingencies Contract Cost Engineering Owner's Legal and Administrative TOTAL PROJECT COST (January 1982) TOTAL PROJECT COST (January 1983) TOTAL PROJECT COST (January 1984) TOTAL PROJECT COST (Janaury 1985) Amount $ 326,820 62,010 64,860 842t870 863.180 127,210 619 ,940·11 353,000 $3,259,900 325,000 109,000 $3,743,900 $3,817,000~/ $3,866,6001/ $4,118,000~/ 1/ The ENR Index for January 1983 indicates a 0. 7% decrease in transmission line costs, resulting in a January 1983 transmission line cost of $615,600. ~I 11 ~I ENR Composite Index for Hydroelectric Projects indicates an increase of 2.0% (January 1982-January 1983). ENR Composite Index for Hydroe 1 ectri c Projects indicates an increase of 1.3% (January 1983-January 1984). Escalated at 6.5% annually (January 1984 -January 1985) according to APA recommended criteria. January 1985 is the proposed bid date. SF:IEB:AD1:2-II-1 II-10 r::t z a: r::t z a: l: w r::t >-(,!) a:: w z w 1. Village demand includes residential, commercial, and school demands for 1986. 2. Supplemental diesel is portion of village demand in excess of available hydro generation. 3. Hydro used by cannery is portion of hydro generation in excess of village demand. 4. Values shown are for 1986. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR 1986 II-11 FIGURE II-1 >- ..J a. a. => U) c;::) z a:. c;::) z a:. l: w p >- (!J a::: w z w 1. Village demand includes residential, commercial, and school demands for 2002. 2. Supplemental diesel is portion of village demand in excess of available hydro generation. 3. Hydro used by cannery is portion of hydro generation in excess of village demand. 4. Values shown are for 2002. ALASKA POWER AUTHOR!TY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR 2002 II-12 FIGURE "T''T'-2 .I. .I. SF:IEB:AD1:2:..C SECTION III FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES A. GENERAL SECTION III FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES The financial alternatives analyzed for the the King Cove Hydroelectric Project include revenue bonds, state loans, state equity financing, and combinations of revenue bonds and state grants. These alternatives apply only to the financing of the hydroelectric facilities and not to the sup- plemental diesel. The financing of the supplemental diesel costs and the base case was considered separately, considering both the current cost of power and the APA recommended analysis parameters for 1984. In addition to the various schemes for financing the hydroe 1 ectri c project, a base case alternative, was considered to provide a comparison to the existing situa- tion. The base case, supplemental diesel, and hydroelectric financial alternatives and analysis results are presented below. B. BASE CASE The base case analysis assumes that the hydroelectric project would not be built and that the existing diesel system, expanded for future demand as necessary, would continue to serve as the sole source of electrical energy. The existing system consists of one 250 kW and two 300 kW diesel generators, providing a current firm capacity of 550 kW (firm capacity is the system capacity with the largest unit not operable). This capacity was assumed to be increased by the addition of one 530 kW diesel generator in 1968. The current debt service on the existing diesel system at King Cove can be considered as equivalent to a loan at five percent interest for 15 years. The existing capacity was assumed to be replaced every fifteen years with these future replacements financed at an interest rate of 10 percent for 15 years. The low rate assumed for the cost of existing debt service was based on the apparent current low cost of energy at King I II-1 SF:IEB:AD1:2-III Cove. The 530 kW addition planned for 1988 was assumed to be financed at 10 percent interest for 20 years. The base case analysis is presented in Tables B-1 and B-2 of Appendix B for the cases of with and without real fuel escalation respectively and is presented in summary form on Tables III-1 through III-3. The cost for 1986 is 19.87¢/KWh for either the with or without fuel escalation case and increases to 65. 03¢/KWh for the with real fue 1 esc a 1 at ion by the end of the planning period in 2002. The corresponding unit value for 2002 without fuel escalation is 51.01¢/KWh. C. SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL The supplemental diesel costs were assumed to be the same as the base case diesel costs except that the energy demand and associated variable fuel oil and maintenance costs would apply only to the portion of village energy demand not met by the hydroelectric project. These diesel costs were discussed in Section II of this report. The detailed supplemental diesel analysis, which is the same to all financial plans, is presented in Appendix 0 as Tables D-3 and D-4 for the cases of with and without fuel escalation, respectively. The summarized cost is then presented in Tables III-1 through III-8 for each of the individual financial alternatives studied. The unit cost of supplemental diesel for 1986, averaged over the annual village demand and assuming real fuel escalation, would be 7.09¢/kWh; this cost escalates to 27.68¢/kWh by 2002. If the effects of fuel escalation are neglected, the cost of power for 1986 would be 7.09¢/kWh, escalating to 23.09¢/kWh by 2002. The cost of supplemental diesel is the component of the total cost not included in the hydroelectric financing. D. CANNERY The Peter Pan Cannery 1 ocated at King Cove, has expressed interest in purchasing all hydroelectric energy generated by the project that would be in excess of the village needs at prices up to 25¢/kWh. The approach that III-2 SF:IEB:AD1:2-rii has been utilized for this analysis is to assume that all hydroelectric costs would be paid by the village, utilizing the various financial alter- natives studied, and that the revenues from excess power sold to the can- nery would then be used to decrease the net payments on the hydroelectric debt. This would effectively result in a decrease of the average unit cost of energy for King Cove. In as much as the selling price to the cannery of the excess power has not as yet been estab 1 i shed, a range of pass i b 1 e selling prices was considered to analyze the net effect on the King Cove unit energy cost. For all cases studied, 1986 prices of 15¢/kWh, 20¢/kWh, and 25¢/kWh were considered for sales of excess energy to the cannery. These unit energy values were then escalated at an annual rate equal to the percentage increase in the overall cost of base case energy. The resulting revenues from sales of excess energy to the cannery are presented in Tables F-1 and F-2 for the cases of with and without real fuel escala- tion and are also summarized in the last four columns of Tables III-9 and III-10. In all cases, the cannery sales would reduce costs to the village from 5.30¢/kWh to 8.83¢/kWh in 1986. Since the availability of the excess electricity for cannery use would be reduced over time the potential credit would also be reduced to 3.30¢/kWh to 5.50¢/kWh in 2002. E. FINANCIAL PLANS Using the criteria and assumptions previously presented, alternative financial plans were analyzed. A description and results of the analysis for each alternative studied are presented below. Complete analyses are presented in this report for each alternative with and without real fuel escalation. In addition, the results of each of these analyses may be modified for the inclusion of excess energy sales to the cannery at selling prices of 15¢/kWh, 20¢/kWh, and 25¢/kWh. A total of six separate results for each of the eight financial alternatives studied then results. To simplify the following discussion of results, the with real fuel escalation and with cannery conditions are used for discussion examples since this combination is considered to be the most probable future I II-3 SF:I£B:A01:2-III : scenario. This is because most economists foresee long term real fuel escalation occurring in excess of general inflation and since the Peter Pan Cannery has expressed firm interest in purchasing the excess project power. A 1 so, the a 1 ternat i ve of 20¢/kWh has been used for the cannery sales since this is the average of the 15¢/kWh, 20¢/kWh, and 25¢/kWh selling prices considered. Nevertheless, data is tables for the without real fuel escalation case cannery selling prices (15¢/kWh and 25¢/kWh) alternatives are desired. presented in the various and the other potentia 1 if results for these Financial summaries for each of the alternatives studied are included at the end of this section as Table III-1 through III-8 (with real fuel escalation) and in Appendix G as Tables G-1 through G-9 (without real fuel escalation). All alternatives are summarized in Table III-9 (with real fuel escalation) and Table III-10 (without real fuel escalation). Both Table III-9 and Table III-10 also include cannery credits at 15¢/kWh, 20¢/kWh and 25¢/kWh. 1. ALTERNATIVE I-A: 100% REVENUE BONOS· Under this alternative, the entire hydroelectric cost would be paid from the sale of tax-exempt revenue bonds bearing an interest rate of 10 percent for 35 years. The total bond sale would include the direct construction costs, an allowance of 10 percent for interest during con- struction, an allowance of 3.75 percent for financing fees, and a reserve fund equal to 110 percent of one year 1 s debt service. The resulting total bond size would be $5,287,200. Table III-1 shows the total annual unit cost of this alternative, including both supplemental diesel and hydroelec- tric costs. As shown in Table III-1, the unit energy cast of Alterna- tive I-A for 1986 would be 34.99¢/kWh and would escalate to 44.74¢/kWh by the year 2002. Cannery credits at 20¢/kWh would decrease these prices to 27 .92¢/kWh and 41.65¢/kWh respectively. The cost of power for Alternative I-A (with 20¢ cannery credits) would be greater than the cost of Base Case power until 1993. III-4 SF:IEB:AD1:2-III 2. ALTERNATIVE I-B: 100% REVENUE BONOS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS Under this alternative, the project would be funded 100% by revenue bonds, as for Alternative I-A; however, the debt service payments would be made on a graduated basis. The debt service for 1986 would be reduced to a level that would make the unit cost of energy for that year the same for the base case and the hydroelectric plus supplemental diesel case. The debt service would then be increased at a maximum rate of 9.5 percent (the same rate of increase of fuel with inflation and escalation), until a uni- form payment could be made for the remainder of the 35 years without exceeding the 9.5 percent increase. This alternative is shown on Table III-2. The total cost of energy for 1986 would be 19.87¢/kWh (equal to the base case cost) with or without fuel escalation, but consideration of the cannery credit at 20¢/kWh would decrease this figure by 7.07¢/kWh to 12.08¢/kWh. 3. ALTERNATIVE II-A: 50% REVENUE BONDS/50% STATE GRANT This alternative is similar to Alternative I-A, but only 50 percent of the direct construction cost would be borne by the power users. The results of the analyses of this Alternative are presented as Table III-3. The remaining 50 percent of the project cost would be paid by State assis- tance. The cost of power for this alternative in 1986 would be 21.70¢/kWh or 14.63¢/kWh with the cannery sales at 20¢/kWh. The cost would increase to 36.82¢/kWh or 33.94¢/kWh with the cannery sales at 20¢/kWh in 2002. 4. ALTERNATIVE II-B: 40% REVENUE BONDS/60% STATE GRANT The project would be financed using tax-exempt revenue bonds for 40 percent of the construction cost and a state grant for the remaining 60 percent. The results of this analysis are shown in Tables III-4. The 1986 cost of power for this alternative would be 19.04¢/kWh or 11.97¢/kWh with cannery credits for 20¢/kWh sales, increasing in 2002 to to 35.24¢/kWh or 32.15¢/kWh with 20¢/kWh cannery sales. II I-5 SF:IEB:A01:2-III 5. ALTERNATIVE II-C: 43.1% REVENUE BONOS/56.9% STATE GRANT The project would be financed using a combination of tax-exempt revenue bonds and a state grant. The bond sale would be sized in such a manner that the unit cost of power in 1986 would be the same for the base case and the hydroelectric plus supplemental diesel case, assuming fuel escalation. The remainder of the capital cost (not included in the bond sale) would be paid by a state grant. The results of this analysis are shown in Table III-5. The unit cost of power for 1986 would be 19.87¢/kWh or 12.80¢/kWh with 20¢/kWh cannery sales, increasing to 35.73¢/kWh or 32.64¢/kWh for 20¢/kWh cannery sales. 6. ALTERNATIVE III-A: STATE LOAN Under this alternative, the project would be financed by a state loan bearing an interest rate of five percent for 35 years. Interest during construction and a reserve fund would not be considered for this alterna- tive. The results of this analysis are shown on Table III-6. The 1986 . cost of power for this alternative would be 22.11¢/kWh or 15.04¢/kWh with cannery sales at 20¢/kWh, increasing to 37.07¢/kWh or 33.97¢/kWh for 20¢/kWh cannery sales. 7. ALTERNATIVE III-B: STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT The project would be financed by a state loan at an interest rate of five percent as above; however, principal and interest payments would be deferred on the debt for 10 years, follows by 25 years of fully amortized debt service. This alternative is shown in Table III-7. The 1986 unit cost of power for this alternative would be 8.41¢/KWh or 1.34¢/kWh with 20¢/kWh cannery sales, increasing to 14.68¢/KWh in 1995 (or 9.89¢/kWh with cannery)~ and more than doubling to 34.37¢/kWh (or 29.86 with cannery credit) in the following year, 1966, when the 10-year deferral period ends. I II-6 SF:IEB:AD1:2-III - B. ALTERNATIVE IV: STATE EQUITY FINANCING The state would pay the entire capital cost of the project and would receive an annual payment equal to five percent of the capital cost. The costs of operation, maintenance, and replacement would be paid from this five percent payment and the remainder of the five percent would be the return on investment to the state. The cash flow for this situation is shown in Table III-B. The 19B6 unit cost of energy, including fuel escalation, would be 18.30¢/kWh, or 11.23¢/kWh with cannery, increasing in 2002 to 34.36¢/kWh or 31.27¢/kWh with 20¢/kWh cannery sales. F. DISCUSSION OF ANALYSES The King Cove Hydroelectric Project appears to be financially feasible using any one of the eight alternative plans presented in this report, since they all result in lower ultimate and total costs than the base case. Financing alternatives that are assisted by the lower unit costs of power than alternatives that are state, and the cost reduction will be greater state will result in not assisted by the as the assistance increases. The alternatives examined during this analysis include assis- tance in the form of state grants, state loans at a low interest rate, and a state equity investment with a low rate of return on the investment. The selection of the method used to finance the project is dependent on numer- ous policy factors which are beyond the scope of this report and no recom- mendation will therefore be made regarding the best method of financing. However, some comments are appropriate regarding the most realistic financial conditions upon which to base the final selection. All alterna- tives have been analyzed for a with real fuel escalation assumption and without real fuel escalation assumption. This is appropriate for a sensi- tivity analysis to gauge the effect of this alternative assumption on the results and Figure III-3 has been included to provide a graphical portrayal of the effect of this assumption. As shown, the base case has been plotted for with fuel escalation and without fuel escalation. Financial Alterna- tive III-A has also be included as an example for both with and without real fuel escalation. As could be expected, the with fuel escalation III-7 SF:IEB:AD1:2-III results are higher than the without fuel escalation. The difference is higher for the base case, which is entirely diesel generation, than for the hydro alternative. which is primarily hydro but which also includes some supplemental diesel. However, most economists predict the occurrence of a long term real fuel escalation, in spite of the current worldwide oil surplus (which is expected to cease in several years), and this is therefore considered to represent a more realistic condition upon which to make financial evaluations. Selling the surplus hydroelectric energy to the Peter Pan cannery is also considered to be more realistic than assuming no cannery sales. since the cannery has written a letter to the Alaska Power Authority firmly expressing interest in purchasing such energy at prices up to 25¢/kWh. Since the price at which this energy would be sold has not yet been deter- mined, a range of prices from 15¢/kWh to 25¢/kWh was investigated for the analysis. This would result in a decrease for all plans (with fuel escala- tion) in the 1986 unit cost of power of 5.3¢/kWh for 15¢/kWh cannery credits, 7.07¢/kWh for 20¢/kWh cannery credits, and 8.83¢/kWh for 25¢/kWh cannery credits. The 2002 year decrease would be 2.32¢/kWh for 15¢/kWh cannery credits, 3.09¢/kWh for 20¢/kWh cannery credits, and 3.87¢/kWh for 25¢/kWh cannery credits. The price decrease in the King Cove unit energy prices is less over time since more energy is utilized by King Cove as the demand increases and less surplus energy is available for the cannery, resulting in less total cannery revenues and less income to apply to the King Cove net generation cost. To illustrate the effect of the inclusion of the cannery sales, Figure III has been included. As shown, Alternative III-A has been plotted both with no cannery credits and with 20¢/kWh cannery credit. While this alternative would be viable without the inclusion of cannery sales, it is considerably less costly with cannery sales. Figures III-1 and III-2 have been included to provide a comparison of all the financial plans studied with the base case and with each other. III-8 SF:IEB:A01:2-III .... Figure III-1 shows hydro alternative financial plans II-A, II-C, II-B, III-A and the base case. This figure includes cannery credits at 20¢/kWh and real fuel escalation. As can be seen, here and in Table III-9 and Table III-10, all five of these plans are fairly similar, and plot very close together on the graph. Alternative III-A has therefore been selected as representative of these five cases and has been plotted in Figure III-2 along with the other three financial plans, Alternatives I-A, I-8, and III-8, to provide a less cluttered comparison of all eight plans and the base case • III-9 SF:IEB:AD1:2-III TABLE 111-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-A WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE CASE (c/kWh) SUPPL. HYDRO. DIESEL (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (2) (3) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 23.23 24.51 25.93 27.50 29.22 31' 12 33.21 35.51 3S.04 46.41 49.27 52.43 55.91 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 65.03 65.03 65.03 65.03 65.03 (l)See Table D-1 (2)See Table D-3 (3)See Table E-1 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.33 10.65 11. 04 11.49 12.02 12.69 13.45 14.31 15.29 22.01 23.08 24.40 25.93 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.90 27.07 26.26 25.47 24.70 23.96 23.23 22.53 21.84 21. 18 20.53 19.91 19.30 18.72 18. 15 17.60 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 17.06 8.25 8.25 1. 22 1. 22 APRIL 1984 TOTAL VILLAGE (C/kWh) (4) 18.99 19.02 19.28 34.99 34.41 36.32 35.80 35.36 34.99 34.72 34.55 34.53 34.63 34.85 35.20 41.32 41.80 42.54 43.53 44.74 44.74 44.74 44.74 44.74 44.74 47.46 47.46 47.46 47.46 47.46 50.03 41.22 41.22 34. 19 34.19 CANNER'!' CREDIT ( c /kWh) 15c (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5. 13 5.07 4.94 4.80 4.66 4.50 4.35 4.23 4' 10 3.94 3.77 4.07 3.77 3.53 3.29 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3. 17 :3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 C7)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-1 II I-10 CANNER'( CREDIT (c/kWh) 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.58 6.40 6.21 6.00 5.80 5.64 5.46 5.26 5.03 5.42 5.02 4.70 4.39 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 CAt..f~lERY CREDIT (C/kWh) 25c (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8e56 8.45 8.23 8.00 7.25 7,05 6.83 6.57 6.29 6.78 6.28 5.88 5.49 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.28 5.2:3 5.28 5.28 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 TABLE III-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-B WITH RERL FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL CANNERY CANNERY CANNERY CASE DIESEL VILLAGE CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh> (C/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 15c 20c 25c (1) <2> (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) --------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 18.99 18.99 e.ee 18.99 e.ee 0.00 e.ee 1984 19.02 19.02 e.ee 19.02 e.ee e.ee 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 e.ee 19.28 0.00 e.ee e.ee 1986 19.87 7.09 12.78 19.87 5.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 7.35 13.77 21. 12 5. 13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 10.06 14.81 24.87 5.07 6.76 8.45 1989 23.23 10.33 15.91 26.24 4.94 6.58 8.23 1990 24.51 10.65 17.06 27.71 4.80 6.40 8.00 ...... 1991 25.93 11.04 18.27 29.31 4.66 6.21 . 7. 76 1992 27.50 11.49 19.55 31.04 4.50 6.00 7.50 1993 29.22 12.02 20.89 32.92 4.35 5.80 7.25 1994 31.12 12.69 22.31 35.00 4.23 5.64 7.05 1995 33.21 13.45 23.81 37.25 4. 10 5.46 6.83 1996 35.51 14.31 25.38 39.69 3.94 5.26 6.57 1997 38.04 15.29 26.28 41.57 3.77 5.03 6.29 1998 46.41 22.01 25.46 47.48 4.07 5.42 6.78 ,-1999 49.27 23.08 24.68 47.76 3.77 5.02 6.28 2000 52.43 24.40 23.91 48.31 3.53 4.70 5.88 2001 55.91 25.93 23.17 49.11 3.29 4.39 5.49 2002 59.74 27.68 22.46 50.14 3.03 4.04 5.05 2003 59.74 27.68 22.46 50.14 3.03 4.04 5.05 2004 59.74 27.68 22.46 50.14 3.03 4.04 5.05 2005 59.74 27.68 22.46 50.14 3.03 4.04 5.05 ..... 2006 59.74 27.68 22.46 50. 14 3.03 4.04 5.05 2007 59.74 27.68 22.46 50.14 3.03 4.04 5.05 2008 62.46 30.40 22.46 52.86 3.17 4.23 5.28 2009 62.46 30.40 22.46 52.86 3.17 4.23 5.28 2010 62.46 30.40 22.46 52.86 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2011 62.46 30.40 22.46 52.86 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2012 62.46 30.40 22.46 52.86 3' 17 4.23 5.28 2018 65.03 32.96 17.24 50.20 3.30 4.40 5.50 2019 65.03 32.96 17.24 50.20 3.30 4.40 5.50 2020 65.03 32.96 17.24 50.20 3.30 4.40 5.50 ,-<if''' 2021 65.03 32.96 1. 22 34.19 3.30 4.40 5.50 2035 65.03 32.96 1. 22 34.19 3.30 4.40 5.50 (1)Si'e Table D-1 <2)See Table D-3 <3>See Table E-2 <4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Canni'ry credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 <7>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-1 III-11 TABLE 111-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-A WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE SUPPL. CASE DIESEL (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 (1) (2) 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 23.23 24.51 25.93 27.50 29.22 31. 12 33.21 35.51 38.04 46.41 49.27 52.43 55.91 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 65.03 65.03 65.03 65.03 65.03 <USe-e Table-D-1 (2)See-Table D-3 (3)See Table E-3 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.33 10.65 11. 04 11.49 12.02 12.69 13.45 14.31 15.29 22.01 23.08 24.40 25.93 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 APRIL 1984 HYDRO. TOTAL VILLAGE (c/kWh) (C/kWh> (3) (4) 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.61 14. 19 13.78 13.38 12.99 12.61 12.24 11.89 11.54 11. 21 10.88 10.57 10.26 9.97 9.68 9.41 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 9.14 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 4.74 4.74 1. 22 1. 22 18.99 19.02 19.28 21.70 21.53 23.84 23.71 23.64 23.65 23.73 23.91 24"23 24.65 25.19 25.86 32.27 33.05 34.08 35.34 36.82 36.82 36.82 36.82 36.82 36.82 39.54 39.54 39.54 39.54 39.54 42. 11 37.70 37.70 34.19 34. 19 CANNERY CREDIT < c /kWh) 15c (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5. 13 5.07 4.94 4.80 4.66 4.50 4.35 4.23 4' 10 3.94 3.77 4.07 3.77 3.53 3.29 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Canne-ry credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 (?)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-1 III-12 CANNERY CREDIT ( c /ld .. Jh) 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.58 6.40 6.21 6.00 5.80 5.64 5.46 5.26 5.03 5.42 5.02 4.70 4.39 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4. 2:3 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 CANNER'/ CREDIT (c/kWh) 25c (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8.23 8.00 7.76 7.50 7.25 7.05 6.83 6.57 6.29 6.78 6.28 5.88 5.49 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 r- TABLE III-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-B WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL CANNERY CANNERY CANNERY CASE DIESEL VILLAGE CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 15c 20c 25c (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) <ED (7) --------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 18.99 18.99 0.00 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19.02 0.00 19.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 0.00 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 7.09 11.95 19.04 5.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 7.35 11.61 18.96 5. 13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 10.06 11.28 21.34 5.07 6.76 8.45 1989 23.23 10.33 10.96 21.29 4.94 6.58 8.23 1990 24.51 10.65 10.64 21.30 4.80 6.40 8.00 1991 25.93 11.04 10.34 21.38 4.66 6.21 7.76 1992 27.50 11.49 10.04 21.53 4.50 6.00 7.50 1993 29.22 12.02 9.76 21.78 4.35 5.80 7.25 1994 31. 12 12.69 9.48 22.17 4.23 5.64 7.05 1995 33.21 13.45 9.21 22.66 4. 10 5.46 6.83 1996 35.51 14.31 8.95 23.26 3.94 5.26 6.57 1997 38.04 15.29 8.70 23.99 3.77 5.03 6.29 .. -1998 46.41 22.01 8.46 30.47 4.07 5.42 6.78 1999 49,27 23.08 8.22 31.30 3.77 5.02 6.28 2000 52.43 24.40 7.99 32.39 3.53 4.70 5.88 2001 55.91 25.93 7.77 33.71 3.29 4.39 5.49 2002 59.74 27.68 7.56 35.24 3.03 4.04 5.05 200.3 59.74 27.68 7.56 35.24 3.03 4.04 5.05 2004 59.74 27.68 7.56 35.24 3.03 4.04 5.05 2005 59.74 27.68 7.56 35.24 3.03 4.04 5.05 ~-2006 59.74 27.68 7.56 35.24 3.03 4.04 5.05 2007 59.74 27.68 7.56 35.24 3.03 4.04 5.05 2008 62.46 30.40 7.56 37.96 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2009 62.46 30.40 7.56 37.96 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2010 62.46 30.40 7.56 37.96 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2011 62.46 30.40 7.56 37.96 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2012 62.46 30.40 7.56 37.96 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2018 65.03 32.96 7.56 40.52 3.30 4.40 5.50 2019 65.03 32.96 4.04 37.00 3.30 4.40 5.50 2020 65.03 32.96 4.04 37.00 3.30 4.40 5.50 2021 65.03 32.96 1. 22 34.19 3.30 4.40 5.50 2035 65.03 32.96 1. 22 34.19 3.30 4.40 5.50 (1)See Tab 1E' D-1 (2)See Table D-3 <3)See Table E-4 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 (?)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-1 III-13 TABLE III-5 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE 11-C WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE CASE (c/kWh) SUPPL. HYDRO. DIESEL (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (1) (2) (3) 1'983 1'984 1'985 1986 1'987 1988 1'989 1'9'90 1'9'91 1'992 1'9'93 1'9'94 1'9'95 1'9'96 19'97 1'9'98 19'9'9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200'9 2010 2011 2012 2018 201'9 2020 2021 2035 18.'99 1'9.02 19.28 1'9.87 20.77 22.07 23.23 24.51 25.'93 27.50 2'9.22 31. 12 33.21 35.51 38.04 46.41 4'9.27 52.43 55.91 5'9.74 5'9.74 5'9.74 59.74 5'9.74 5'9.74 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 65.03 65.03 65.03 65.03 65.03 <1)See Table D-1 <:~D See Tab 1 e D-3 (3)See Table E-5 18.'9'9 1'9.02 1'9.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.33 10.65 11.04 11.4'9 12.02 12,6'9 13.45 14.31 15.2'9 22.01 23.08 24.40 25.'93 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 32.96 32.'96 32.'96 32.'96 32.'96 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.78 12.41 12.06 11.71 11.37 11.04 10.73 10.42 10. 12 9.83 '9.55 '9.28 '9.02 8.76 8.52 8.28 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 4.25 4.25 1. 22 1. 22 APRIL 1'984 TOTAL VILLAGE (C/kWh) (4) 18.'9'9 1'9.02 19.28 1'9.87 19.76 22.12 22.04 22.03 22.08 22.22 22.44 22.81 23.28 23.86 24.57 31.03 31.84 32.'92 34.21 35.73 35.73 35.73 35.73 35.73 35.73 38.45 38.45 38.45 38.45 38.45 41. 01 37.22 37.22 34.1'9 34.1'9 CANNERY CREDIT (c/k~lh) 15c (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5. 13 5.07 4.'94 4.80 4.66 4,50 4.35 4.23 4.10 3.94 3.77 4.07 3.77 3.53 3.29 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.17 .3" 17 3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 C7)Cannery credit for 1'986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-1 I II-14 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh) 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.58 6.40 6.21 6.00 5.80 5.64 5.46 5. 26 . 5.03 5.42 5.02 4.70 4.39 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.,23 4. 2:3 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 CANNERY CREDIT <c kWh) 25c (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8. 2:3 8.00 7.76 7.50 7.25 7,05 6 < 8:3 6.57 6.2'9 6.78 6.28 5.88 5.49 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5. 5€1 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 TABLE II I-6 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-A WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. CASE DIESEL (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (1) <2> (3) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20113 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 23.23 24.51 25.93 27.50 29.22 31. 12 33.21 35.51 38.04 46.41 49.27 52.43 55.91 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 65.03 65,03 65.03 65.03 65.03 <USee Table D-1 <2>See Table D-3 <3>See Table E-6 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.33 10.65 11.04 11.49 12.02 12.69 13.45 14.31 15.29 22.01 23.08 24.40 25.93 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.02 14.59 14. 16 13.75 13.35 12.96 12.58 12.21 11.86 11.51 11. 18 10.86 10.54 10.24 9.95 9.66 9.39 9,39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 9.39 1.22 1. 22 APRIL 1984 TOTAL VILLAGE (C/kWh> (4) 18.99 19.02 19.28 22. 11 21.93 24.22 24.08 24.00 24.00 24.07 24.24 24.55 24.96 25.49 26.15 32.55 33.32 34.34 35.60 37.07 37.07 37.07 37.07 37.07 37.07 39.79 39.79 39.79 39.79 39.79 42.35 42.35 42.35 34. 19 34. 19 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh) 15c (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5. 13 5.07 4.94 4.80 4.66 4.50 4.35 4.23 4. 10 3.94 3.77 4.07 3.77 3.53 3.29 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 . 3. 17 3. 17 3.17 3.17 3. 17 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 <4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 (6>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 <?)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-1 III-15 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh> 20c <6> 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.58 6.40 6.21 6.00 5.80 5.64 5.46 5.26 5.03 5.42 5.02 4.70 4.39 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh> 25c (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8.23 8.00 7.76 7.50 7.25 7.05 6.83 6.57 6.29 6.78 6.28 5.88 5.49 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 TABLE III-7 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-B WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE CASE (c/kWh) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 23.23 24.51 25.93 27.50 29.22 31. 12 33.21 35.51 38.04 46.41 49.27 52.43 55.91 59.74 59.74 59.74 !59.74 !59.74 !59.74 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 65.03 6!5.03 65.03 6!5.03 6!5.03 SUPPL. DIESEL (c/kWh) (2) 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.3!5 10.06 10.33 10.6!5 11.04 11.49 12.02 12.69 13.4!5 14.31 15.29 22.01 23.08 24.40 2!5.93 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 32.96 < 1) See Tab 1 e D -1 (2)See Table D-3 (3)See Table E-7 HYDRO. (3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1. 32 1. 31 1. 30 1. 28 1. 27 1. 26 1. 2!5 1. 25 1. 24 1. 23 20.06 19.45 18.86 18.29 17.73 17. 19 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 1. 22 1. 22 APRIL 1984 TOTAL VILLAGE (C/kWh) (4) 18.99 19.02 19.28 8.41 8.66 11.36 11.61 11.93 12.30 12.74 13.27 13.93 14.68 34.37 34.74 40.87 41.37 42.13 43.13 44.35 44.35 44.35 44.35 44.35 44.35 47.07 47.07 47.07 47.07 47.07 49.64 49.64 49.64 34.19 34. 19 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh) 15c (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5. 13 5.07 4.94 4.80 4.66 4.50 4.35 4.23 4" 10 3.94 3.77 4.07 3.77 3.53 3.29 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.03 3.17 3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3. 17 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 C4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. C5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 C6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 <?>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-1 I II-16 CANNER',' CREDIT < c /kWh) 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.58 6.40 6.21 6.00 5.80 5·. 64 5.46 5 .. 26 5.03 5.42 5.02 4.70 4.39 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.04 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 CANNERY CREDIT ( •: /k L4h) 25c (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8.23 8.00 7.76 7.50 7a25 7.05 6.83 6.57 6, 2'3 6.78 6.28 5.88 5.49 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 TABLE III-8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE IV WITH REAL FUEL ESCALAT I or~ APRIL 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL CAN~~ERY CANt-IER~' CAt-INER',' CASE DIESEL VILLAGE CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (c..-·kWh) (c/kWh) 15c 20c 25c (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ( 7) ------------------ --------------------------------------------- 1983 18.99 18.99 0.00 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19.02 0.00 19.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 0.00 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 7.09 11.22 18.30 5.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 7.35 10.87 18.22 5. 13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 10.06 10.53 20.59 5.07 6.76 8.45 1989 23.23 10.33 10.21 20.54 4.94 6.58 8.23 1990 24.51 10.65 9.89 20.54 4.80 6.40 8.00 1991 25.93 11.04 9.58 20.61 4.66 6.21 7.76 1992 27.50 11. 49 9.27 20.76 4.50 6.00 7.50 1993 29.22 12.02 8.98 21.00 4.35 5.80 7.25 1994 31. 12 12.69 8.69 21.38 4.23 5.64 7.05 1995 33.21 13.45 8.42 21.86 4. 10 5.46 6.83 1996 35.51 14.31 8. 15 22.46 3.94 5.26 6.57 1997 38.04 15.29 7.88 23. 18 3.77 5.03 6. 2'3 1998 46.41 22.01 7.63 29.64 4.07 5.42 6.78 1999 49.27 23.08 7.38 30.46 3.77 5.02 6.28 2000 52.43 24.40 7. 14 31.54 3.53 4.70 5.88 2001 55.91 25.93 6.91 32.84 3.29 4.39 5.49 2002 59.74 27.68 6.68 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2003 59.74 27.68 6.68 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2004 59.74 27.68 6.68 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2005 59.74 27.68 6.68 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2006 59.74 27.68 6.68 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2007 59.74 27.68 6.68 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2008 62.46 30.40 6.68 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2009 62.46 30.40 6.68 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2010 62.46 30.40 6.68 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2011 62.46 30.40 6.68 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2012 62.46 30.40 6.68 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 ... 2018 65.03 32.96 6.68 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 2019 65.03 32.96 6.68 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 2020 65.03 32.96 6.68 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 2021 65.03 32.96 6.68 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 ... 2035 65.03 32.96 6.68 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 <t>See-Table D-1 (2)See Table D-3 (3)See Table E-8 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Cannery credit, for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-1 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-1 (7)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Tab 1 e F-1 Ill-17 TABLE 111-9 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT UNIT COSTS OF ENERGY! ~L FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 100% REVENUE REVENUE BONDS AND STATE LOANS STATE SAVINGS FROM ENERGY BONDS STATE GRANTS EQUITY SALES TO CANNERY ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------~-------~------- YEAR IBASE I-A I-B II-A li-B II-C III-A IIII-B IV 15c 20c 25c CASE 100% 100l: 50~/50~ 40%/60% 43lV57:', - (C/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh> <crkWh> < c /I< Wh > ( c /kWh> (c/&<Wh> (c/kWh) (c/klolt,) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/klolh) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) ( 10) ( 11> ( 12) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 IS. 99 18.99 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19,02 19.02 19.02 19.02 19.02 19.02 19.02 19.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 1..,, 28 19.28 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 34.99 19.87 21.70 19.04 19.87 22. 11 8.41 18.30 5,30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 34.41 21. 12 21.53 18.96 19.76 21.93 8.66 18.22 5. 13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 36.32 24.87 23.84 21.34 22. 12 24.22 II. 36 20.59 5.07 6.76 8,45 1989 23.23 35.80 26.24 23.71 21.29 22.04 24.08 11.61 20.54 4.94 6.58 8,23 1990 24.51 35.36 27.71 23.64 21.30 22.03 24.00 11.93 20.54 4.80 6,40 8.00 I 9'.ill 25.93 34.99 29.31 23.65 21.38 22.08 24.00 12.30 20.61 4.66 6.21 7.76 1992 27.50 34.72 31.04 23.73 21.53 22.22 24.07 12.74 20.76 4.50 6.00 7.50 1993 29.22 34.55 32.92 23.91 21.78 22.44 24.24 13.27 21.00 4.35 5,80 7.25 1994 31. 12 34.53 35.00 24.23 22. 17 22.81 24.55 13.93 21. 36 4.23 5.64 7.05 1995 33.21 34.63 37.25 24.65 22.66 23.28 24.96 14.68 21.86 4. 10 5.46 6.83 1996 35.51 34.85 39,69 25.19 23.26 23.86 25.49 34.')7 22.46 3.94 5.26 6.57 ...... 1997 38.04 35.20 41.57 25.86 23.99 24.57 26.15 34,74 23. 18 3. 77 5.03 6.29 ...... 1998 46.41 41.32 47.48 32.27 30.47 31.03 32.55 40.87 29.64 4.07 5.42 6.78 ...... 1999 49.27 41.80 47.76 33.05 31.30 31.84 33.32 41.37 30.46 3. 77 5.02 6.28 I ...... 2000 52.43 42.54 48.31 34.08 32.39 32.92 34.34 42.13 31.54 3.53 4.70 s.88 (X) 2001 55.91 43.53 49. 11 35.34 33.71 34.21 35.60 43.13 32.84 3.29 4.39 5.49 2002 59.74 44,74 50.14 36.82 35.24 35.73 37.07 44.35 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2003 59.74 44.74 50.14 36.82 35.24 35.73 37.07 44.35 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2004 59.74 44.74 50.14 36.82 35.24 35.73 37.07 44.35 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2005 59.74 44.74 50.14 36.82 35.24 35.73 37.07 44.35 34.36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2006 59.74 44.74 50.14 36.82 35.24 35.73 37.07 44.35 34,36 3.03 4.04 5.05 2007 59.74 44,74 50.14 36.82 35.24 35.73 37.07 44.35 34.36 3.03 4. 04 5.05 2008 62.46 47.46 52.86 39.54 37.96 38.45 3'9. 79 47.07 37,08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2009 62.46 47.46 52.86 39.54 37.96 38.45 3'9.79 47.07 37.08 3. 17 4,23 5.28 2010 62.46 47.46 52.86 39.54 37.96 38.45 39.79 47.07 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2011 62.46 47.46 52.66 39.54 37.96 38.45 3'9.79 47.07 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2012 62.46 47.46 52.86 39.54 37,96 38.45 3'9,79 47.07 37.08 3. 17 4.23 5.28 2013 65.03 50.03 55.42 42. 11 40.52 41.01 42.35 49,64 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . .. . . 2016 65.03 50.03 50.20 42. 11 40.52 41.01 42.35 49.64 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 2019 65.03 41.22 50.20 37.70 37.00 37.22 42.35 49.64 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 2020 65.03 41.22 50.20 37.70 37.00 37.22 42.35 49.64 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 2021 65.03 34.19 34.19 34.19 34. 19 34. 19 34. 19 34. 19 39.65 3.30 4.40 5.50 . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 2035 65.03 34.19 34. 19 34. 19 34. 19 34.19 34.19 34. 19 39.651 3.301 4,401 5.50 <I>Se41 T&b141 D-1 (2)S4141 Table D-3 and E-1.Sum of hydro and supplemental dies41l costs. <3>54141 Table D-3 and E-2.Sum of hydro and supplem~ntal di e;;;~l costs. (4lSee Table D-3 and E-3.Sum of hydro and supplem41ntal diesel costs. (5)See Tabl41 D-3 and E-4.Sum of hydro and supplemental du:=-El costs. <6lS41e Table D-3 and E-5.Sum of hydro and supplemental dit'sel costs. <?)See Table D-3 and E-6.Sum of hydro and supplemental di e:=.e·l costt. <8 St'e Table D-3 and E-7.Sum of hydro and supplemental die:=el c o:=.t ; .• <':IJSee Table D-3 and E-B.Sum of h~dro and supplemental dte:sel C O:St S. <10)15 c'kWh for l986,escalates at s.au1E" r·.51tE it.E· the· b~:: t:: Cis.:: • St:·e T .;,.b 1 F !. (11 28 c/kWh for 1986,esc.;,.l.;,.tes at ;.ame ratE as ti·,~ ba:.::.l:i-Cil.....: • ~;e e T.;,.b F· 1. ( 12)25 c/kWh for· 1986,~scalate$ at same::-r··ate· a:: t bt tLS:,E.: c.a:.:: • St:-~ T20bl F -1. TABLE I II-10 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT UNIT COSTS OF ENERGY:W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION 1 W/O CANNERY APRIL 1984 100% REVENUE REVENUE BONDS AND STATE LOANS STATE SAVINGS FROM ENERGY BONDS STATE GRANTS EQUIT'f SALES TO CANNERY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------_______ , _______ , _______ YEAR I BASE I -A I -B II-A II-B II-C III-A III-B IV 15c 20c 2~c CASE 100% 100% 50%/50% 40%/60% 43::v57% - (C /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh) ((;:/kWh) <c ,;kWh) (c/kWh) (C/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (1) (2) (3) (4) (~) (6) (7) <8> (9) <10) ( 11) ( 12> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19.02 19.02 19.02 19.02 19.02 1'9.02 19.02 19.02 0,00 0.00 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 1'9.28 19.28 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 34.99 19.87 21.70 19.04 19.87 22. 11 8.41 18.30 ~.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 34,41 21. 12 21.53 18.96 19.76 21.93 8.66 18.22 5.13 6.85 8.~6 1988 22.07 36.32 24.87 23.84 21.34 22. 12 24.22 11.36 20.~9 5.07 6.76 8.4~ 1989 22.86 35.74 26. 18 23.65 21.23 21.98 24.02 11.56 20.48 4.86 6,48 8.10 1990 23.72 35.22 27.58 23.51 21.17 21.90 23.87 11.80 20.41 4.64 6.19 7. 74 1991 24.65 3J4, 77 29.08 23.42 21. 15 21.86 23.77 12.07 20.:39 4.43 5.90 7.38 1992 25.65 34.37 30.69 23.38 21. 18 21.86 23.72 12.39 20.41 4.20 5.60 7.00 1993 26.73 34.04 32.41 23.40 21.28 21.94 23.73 12,76 20.50 3.98 5.30 6.63 1994 27.89 33.83 34.30 23.53 21.47 22.10 23.84 13.22 20.68 3.79 5.05 6.32 1995 29.14 33.68 36.31 23.71 21.72 22.34 24.02 13.74 20.92 3.59 4.79 5.99 1996 30.48 33,61 38.46 23.96 22.03 22.63 24.26 33.14 21.23 3.39 4.51 5.64 1997 31.92 33.62 39.99 24.28 22,41 22.99 24.57 33.16 21.60 3.17 4.22 5.28 1998 39.07 39.32 45.48 30.28 28.48 29.04 310.56 38.88 27.65 3.42 4.57 5.71 ...... 1999 40.54 39.32 45.28 30.57 28.82 29.37 310.84 38.89 27.98 3,10 4.13 5.16 ....... ....... 2000 42.14 39.48 45.24 31.01 29.32 29.85 31.27 39.06 28.47 2.84 3.78 4. 73 I 2001 43.86 39.76 45.34 31.57 29.94 30.44 31.83 39.36 29.07 2.58 3.44 4,31 ..... \0 2002 45,72 40.16 45.~5 32.24 30.65 31.14 32.48 39.77 29.7>3 2.32 3.09 3.87 2003 45.72 40. 16 45.55 32.24 30.65 31. 14 32.48 39,77 29.78 2.32 3.09 3.87 2004 45.72 40.16 45.55 32.24 30.65 31.14 3:2.48 39.77 29.7>3 2.32 3.09 3.87 2005 45.72 40.16 45.55 32.24 30.65 31. 14 32.48 39.77 29.78 2.32 3.09 3.87 2006 45.72 40.16 45.~5 32.24 30.65 31. 14 32.48 39.77 29.78 2.32 3.09 3.87 2007 45.72 40.16 45.55 32.24 39.65 31. 14 32.48 39.77 29.76 2.32 3.09 3.87 2008 48.44 42.87 48.27 34.95 33.37 33.86 35.20 42.48 32.49 2.46 3.28 4.10 2009 48.44 42.87 48.27 34.95 33.37 33.86 35.20 42.48 32.49 2.46 3.28 4,10 2010 48.44 42.87 48.27 34.95 33,37 33.86 35.20 42.48 32.49 2.46 3.28 4.10 2011 48.44 42.87 48.27 34.95 33.37 33.86 35.20 42.48 32.49 2.46 3.28 4.10 2012 48.44 42.87 48.27 34.95 33.37 33.86 35.20 42.48 32.49 2.46 3.28 4.10 2013 St. 01 45.44 50.83 37.52 35.94 36.43 37.76 45.05 35.06 2.59 3.45 4.31 . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . .. 2018 51.01 45.44 45.61 37.52 35.94 36.43 37.76 45.05 35.06 2.59 3.45 4,31 2019 51.01 36.63 45.61 33. 11 32.41 32.63 37.76 45.05 35.06 2.59 3.4~ 4.31 2020 51.01 36.63 45.61 33. 11 32.41 32.63 37.76 45.05 35.06 2.59 3.45 4. 31 2021 51.01 29.60 29.60 29.60 29.60 29.60 2'9.60 29.60 35.06 2.59 3.45 4.31 . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 2035 51.01 29.60 29.60 29.60 29.60 29.60 2'9.60 29.60 35.06), 2.591 3.451 4.31 <I>SI'I' Tabll' D-2 <2>Su Tabll' D-4 and E-l.Sum of hydro and suppleml'ntal diesel costs, <3>SI'I' Tabh D-4 and E-2.Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <4>Sal' Tabll' D-4 and E-3.Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)S•• Tabh D-4 and E-4.Sum of hydro and suppleml'ntal diesl'l costs. <6>SI'I' Tabll' D-4 and E-5.Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <?>Su Tabl.r D-4 and E-6.Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <B>S•• Tabll' D-4 and E-?,Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (9)$1'1' Tabll' D-4 anfi_E-8.Sum of hydro and supplemental die:sel costs. <19)15 c/kWh for 1986,escalates at same rate· as the bas.e ca:;;e.See Table F-L (11)20 c/kWh for 1986,escalates at same· rate-as thl' ba~ . .;-case.See Table F-1. <12>25 c/kWh for 1986 1 4tscalate:s at same rate a:s the base ca:;;.,,See· Table· F-1. .c. 3: .X ' (J) 1-z w u 1- (J) 0 u >- (,!) a:: w z w 1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation. 2. Alternative II-A is 50% tax-exempt revenue bonds and 50% state grants. 3. Alternative II-8 is 40% tax-exempt revenue bonds and 60% state grant. 4. Alternative II-C is 43.1% tax-exempt revenue bonds and 56.9% state grant. 5. Alternative III-A is State loan at 5%. 6. Alternative IV is State Equity Financing with 5% return. 7. All hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental diesel and adjustment for energy sold to cannery. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FIGURE KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT III-1 W/ FUEL ESCALATION W/ CANNERY CREDIT@ 20 c/kWh FOR 1988 I II-20 ,..., .r. 3: .X ' Ul t-z w (.) ...., t- Ul 0 (.) >-CI 0:: w z w 1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation. 2. Alternative I-A is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds. 3. Alternative I-B is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds with graduated repayment schedule. 4. Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%. 5. Alternat1ve III-B is State Loan at 5% with payments deferred for 10 years. 6. All hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental diesel and adjustment for energy sold to cannery. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ tUEL ESCALATION FIGURE III-2 W/ CANNERY CREDIT@ 20 c/kHh tOR 1986 I II-21 .c 3:: .$. ' en 1-z w u ...., l-en 0 u >- (.!1 ct w z w 1990 2B!B YEAR 1. Costs shown include general 1nflation. 2. Costs shown with and without real fuel escalation. W/ F"lEt. ESC • 3. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%. 4. Hydro alternative includes cost of supplemental diesel and adjustment for energy sold to cannery. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ AND W/0 FUEL ESCALATION CANNERY CREDIT e 20 c/kWh FOR 1986 III-22 FIGURE III-3 ,... .r. X ~ ' (J) 1-z w u '"' 1- (J) 0 u >-1.!1 0:: w z w 1. Costs shown include general 1n,flat1on and real fuel escalation. 2. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%. 3. Hydro alternative includes cost of supplemental diesel. 4. Hydro alternative shown with and without adjustment for energy sold to cannery. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ FUEL ESCALATION W & W/0 CANNERY CREDIT @ 20 c/kWh III-23 FIGURE III-4 FOR 1986 SF:IEB:AD1:2-C APPENDIX A PROJECT DRAWINGS 475 450 425 400 375 - 350 325 ~ 300 :::J 1--« 0 275 w 1--rn u; 250 "' >= 225 ::::; 1--0 w ~ w 200 lL z 0 c c z 175 _iii 0 0 "' ;::: I1J ~ ::l' 150 > i5 w ...J w 125 0+00 STATIONING TYPE Jll TYPE II -I --I FEET SEE ACCESS ROAD AND PENSTOCK CREEK CROSSING DETAILS PLAN SCALE I 250 PROFILE OF PENSTOCK I ACCESS ROAD SCALE 250 HORIZ 50 VERT I _L ACCESS ROAD AND TRANSMISSION LINE TO KING COVE (5 MILES) VIA AIRPORT ( 1/2 MILE) ..... , "-,~NATURAL GROUND (ROCK) , SELECT ROADBED FILL ' ' ', SECTION A TYPE II I -1 -_I __ I I 475 I I 450 II 425 400l 1 375 I 350 II 325 I (I 300 275 250 225 i NQIT I 0 0 NO TERRAIN WAS ENCOUNTERED REQUIRING THE TYPE I SECTION DURING THE FIELD RECONNAISSANCE IT IS INCLUDED HERE IN CASE LATER MORE DETAILED INVESTIGATIONS YIELD EVIDENCE 01! SUBSURFACE ROCK It 4 8 12 161! 20 24 SCALE I 4 I[ 200 ~ 250 50 100 150 300 SCALE I 250 TYPE I-SIDEHILL {ROCK) --f-------12 ----~ SELECT ROADBED FILL 0 OD+2 0 (TYP) TYPE ill-SIDE HILL {SOIL) TYPE II[-FLOODPLAIN TYPICAL PENSTOCK I ACCESS ROAD SECTIONS SCALE I 4 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ANCHORAGE ALASKA KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT PENSTOCK-PLAN PROFILE AND DETAILS DOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE ALASKA TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY SAN FRANCl SCO CAUF ORNIA PLATEm EQUIPMENT DOOR-------JI -----""1/ffl/Nil T - NATURAL GROUND_/ GENERAL PLAN SCALE I 20 EQUIPMENT MOUNTING SKID TAILRACE RETAINING WALL -------SLOPE '!L---r---~~=-------~----~ TAILRACE PROFILE-SECTION A SCALE 3 i6 I 0 FENCE TURBINE SHUTOFF VALVE RIP RAP PROFILE-SECTION 8 SCALE 3 I 0 i6 TURBINE 0 5 0 10 SCALE POWERHOUSE PLAN SCALE ~ I 0 I 16 X 35-0 l:t, 11 ~ I I 15 20 11 25 3 I 0 i6 60 100 SCALE I 2D 30 120 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ANCHORAGE ALASKA KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT POWERHOUSE-PLANS AND SECTIONS DOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE ALASKA TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY SAN FRANCISCO CAUFORNIA PLATE1ZI SF:IEB:A01:2-C APPENDIX 8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ANALYSIS PARAMETERS SUMMARY OF REC0~1MENDATIONS Analysis Parameters for the 1984 Fiscal Year Economic Analysis Inflation Rate -0% Real Discount Rate -3.5% Real Oil Distillate Escalation Rate 2.5% -First 20 years 0% -Thereafter Cost of Power Analysis Inflation Rate -6.5% Project Debt to Equity Ratio -1:0 Cost of Debt.-10% Economic life and Term of Financing Gasification Equipment Waste Heat Recapture Equipment Under 5 MW Over 5 MW Solar, Wind Turbines, Geothermal and Organic Rankine Cycle Turbines Diesel Generation* Units under 300 KW Units over 300 KW Gas Turbines Combined Cycle Turbines Steam Turbines (Includin9 Coal and Wood-fired Boilers} Under 10 MW Over 10 ~~ Hydroelectric Projects Economic life Term of Financing Transmission Systems Transmission Lines w/ Wood Poles Transmission lines w/ Steel Towers Submarine Cables Oil Fi 11ed Solid Dielectric 10 years 10 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 20 years 20 years 30 years 20 years 30 years 50 years 35 years 30 years 40 years 30 years 20 years *Diesel Reserve Units will have longer life depending on use. Also this economic life is by unit and not total plant capacity. 9204/020 B-1 SF:IEB:AD1:2-C APPENDIX C ECONOMIC ANALYSIS UPDATE LETIER ... LOUIS W RICGS RO!It RT S I•'.SOPAuL I' A[) I r POTH R KIIIH U IlL II. DOUGLAS I M."-SSrlfLD ORAL I CON\lR$ DAVID C WILLER MICHAH ll. HARRINGTON TH! ODORE H. PURCHl WAL HR f ANTON ROilfRT W. MVROAL Ms. Merlyn Paine Project Manager TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY CONSULTING ENGINEERS AND PLANNERS 149 NEW MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA 94105 HUe PHON~ (41'il 962-ll.!.\6 TWX 910 .l72 6063 CABL~ ··nNGCO" April 6, 1984 Alaska Power Authority 334 West 5th Avenue Anchorage, Alaska 99501 Subject: King Cove Economic Analysis Update Dear Merlyn: RALPH A. TUDOR (1902·1%3) ASSOCIATED CONSULTANTS STANLEY H. fROID WilBERT A. PACHECO DONALD C. ROSE STEVEN R. ALTERS JACK C. BIEDERMAN HUGH M. BROWN DONALD I CROFT FRED B. ESTEP RICHARD W. EVERETT FRITS H. FENGER ROBERT W. GANSE GERALD V. GIBNEY ROBERTO E. INIGUEZ GRANT A. LARSEN RAINER RUNGALDIER As requested, we have conducted a brief update economic analysis for the King Cove Hydroelectric Project. The results of this analysis show a benefit/cost (B/C) ratio of 1.27 and a net present worth of $2,170,800, indi- cating that the project is feasible. The computer output for the analysis and a summary are attached. The capacity required by the system, as well as the energy demands. for both the village and the cannery, are based on updated information obtained by the consultants and APA for use in the King Cove Financial Report, currently under preparation • Two situations were considered for the economic analysis. The Base Case alternative consists of continued reliance on diesel engines as the so1e source of electrical energy for the village. The Hydroelectric Alternative would consist of the proposed hydroelectric facilities on Delta Creek, supple- mented by diesel generation as necessary. The Hydroelectric Alternative was a 1 so given an addition a 1 credit for energy in excess of the vi 11 age demand that could be used by the cannery. The costs associated with the Base Case are presented as Table I, a.ttached. Co 1 umns one through three of this tab 1 e show the year, firm capa- city, and vi 11 age energy demand. The capacity and energy demand wi 11 be addressed in the King Cove financial report. Column four shows the debt service for the diesel engines. The existing installed capacity of 850 KW was assumed to cost $700/KW and to have been fully amortized at 3.5% interest over a 15 year period in perpetuity, in accordance with APA analysis criteria. A capacitJ expansion of 530 KW was assumed to be brought on-line in 1988 at a cost of $310,000 amortized at 3.5% for 20 years, in perpetuity. These two debt service streams are superimposed in column four. Column five shows insurance, computed as $0.80/$100 on the cost of the new machinery. Column six shows the operation and maintenance (O&M} costs for the project. This cost consists of $30,000 per year for operator wages and fixed costs, plus $11.75/MWh for extraordinary maintenance. The cost of oil is shown in column seven. This cost is the sum of the costs of lubrication oil and fuel oil. The current rate of consumption of fuel oil is about 11.5 KWh/gallon; this figure is expected to decrease to about 13.75 KWh/gallon in 1988. The rate of C-1 TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY Ms. Merlyn Paine Apri 1 6, 1984 Page 2 lubrication oil consumption was assumed as 0.55% of the rate of lubrication oil consumption. The initial cost of fuel oil was taken as $1.13/gallon and the initial cost of lubrication oil as $3.80/gallon. The costs were held constant for 1983 through 1988, then escalated at 3.0% for the remainders of the planning period (1989-2002) to account for real full escalation. The cost of oil was then assumed constant for the remainder of the period of analysis (2003-2035). The total cost shown in column eight is the sum of debt service, insurance, O&M, and oil. The total costs were discounted to January 1983 at 3.5 percent interest, as shown in column nine. The total present worth of the base case is $10,239,600. The cost of supplemental diesel is shown on Table II. The calcula- tion of this cost is the same as the calculation of the base case cost, except that the energy demand on the diesel system is only the village demand not met by the hydroelectric project. The total present worth of the cost of the base case is $5,061,800. The costs of the hydroe 1 ectri c project are presented as Tab 1 e I I I. Column one of Table III shows the year, followed by the caital cost of the hydroelectric project in column II. This cost was taken from the King Cove feasibility report updated to January 1983 price levels. The debt service for the hydroelectric project shown in column three is the capital cost amortized at 3.5 percent for fifty years. The O&M cost was assumed as an increase of 20 percent in the fixed component of the diesel O&M. The replacement schedule of investment shown in co 1 umn five, fo 11 owed by a sinking fund to prov; d2 for ,._. the replacements in column six. The schedule allows for the replacement of the runner every 25 years and replacement of transmission lines every 30 years. The sinking funds for these replacements are at 3.5 percent in per- petuity and are shown superimposed. The annua 1 cost is the sum of debt service, O&M, and the replacement sinking fund. These costs were discounted to January 1983 at 3. 5 percent interest. The tot a 1 present worth of the hydroelectric alternative is $3,841,700. The cannery credit is shown on Table IV. This credit is the avoided cost of excess energy provided to the cannery, assuming that the cost of die- sel generation at the cannery is roughly equal to the village cost of diesel generation. These costs include the oil costs and variable maintenance costs as presented for the base case. The total present worth of the cannery energy is $844,700. A present worth and benefit cost summary is presented as Tab 1 e V. The benefits associated with the project are the present worth at the Base Case costs of $11,084,300. The costs associated with the project are the pre- sent worth of the hydroelectric and supplemental diesel costs, totalling $8,913,500. When the $844,660 present worth of the avoided cost of the excess energy utilized by the cannery is deducted, the net project cost then decreases to $8,068,800. C-2 TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY Ms. Merlyn Paine April 6, 1984 p,age 3 As shown in Table V, the resulting 8/C ratios for the project are 1.15 without consideration of the cannery and 1.27 when the cannery credits are included. We were pleased to find that the project is still economically viable using the updated data and still therefore recommend that project implementa- tion proceed. Please call if you have any questions concerning our brief 8/C analysis. GEL:RDT:0420952.88 Very truly yours, TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY Gordon E. Little Project Manager C-3 TABLE I ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT: BASE CASE APRIL 1984 YEAR FIRM ENERGY DEBT INSUR. O&cM OIL TOTAL PRE SEtH CAPAC ITV DEMAND SERVICE COST WORTH ( k W) <MWh) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) -----------------____ _, ___ ------------------------__ _, __ ,_, ___ __ _,_....,. ___ 1983 550 1328 51661 4760 45608 132943 234972 227026 1984 550 1516 51661 4760 47813 151724 255958 238940 1985 550 1704 51661 4760 50024 170557 277002 249840 1986 550 1836 51661 4760 51572 183745 291738 254233 1987 550 1894 51661 4760 52258 189586 298265 251131 1988 850 1955 73473 7240 52969 163629 297311 241863 1989 850 2018 73473 7240 53707 173951 308371 242377 1990 850 2083 73473 7240 54472 184954 320139 243117 1991 850 2150 73473 7240 55266 196679 332658 244081 1992 850 2220 73473 7240 56089 209178 345980 245272 1993 850 2293 73473 7240 56942 222503 360158 246689 1994 850 2368 73473 7240 57828 236708 375248 248333 1995 850 2446 73473 7240 58746 251854 391313 250207 1996 850 2527 73473 7240 59698 268001 408412 252309 1997 850 2612 73473 7240 60686 285223 426622 254647 1'398 850 2699 73473 7240 61710 303583 446005 257214 1999 850 2789 73473 7240 62772 323169 466654 260021 2000 850 2883 73473 7240 63874 344055 488642 263066 2001 850 2980 73473 7240 65016 366326 512055 266348 2002 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 269879 2003 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 260753 2004 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 251935 2005 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 243416 2006 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 235184 2007 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 227231 2008 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 219547 2009 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 212123 2010 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 204950 2011 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 53n103 E•8019 2012 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 53700:3 191323 2013 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 184853 2014 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 178602 2015 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 172562 2016 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 166727 2017 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 161088 2018 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 155641 2019 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 150378 2020 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 145293 2021 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 140379 2022 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 135632 2023 850 :3081 73473 7240 66202 39131389 537003 131046 2024 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 126614 2025 850 3081 7:34 73 7240 66202 39008'3 5:37003 1223:32 2026 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 :3'~0089 537003 1181';i6 2027 850 :3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 53700:3 1141 ·~9 2028 850 :3081 73473 7240 66202 :390089 53700:;: 11>!1:337 2029 850 :3081 73473 7240 66202 3'30089 53700::;: 106606 2030 :350 3081 7:3473 7240 66202 390089 5:3700:3 1033001 2031 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 99518 2032 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 3'30089 537003 96152 2033 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 390089 537003 92901 2034 850 :3081 7:34 73 7240 66202 3'30089 53700:3 •:•o.:l"")'C"o:j I 203$ ._ .... 1 • ..; ... 850 3081 73473 7240 66202 3'~0089 5370031 :36724 TOTAL PRESENT WORTH: 11<:123961 :3 C-4 TABLE II ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ECOHOMIC AHALYSIS KIHG COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLEMEHTAL DIESEL APRIL 1984 YEAR FIRM EHERGY DEBT IHSUR. Ot.M OIL TOTAL PRESE~lT CAPACITY DEMAHD SERVICE COST WORTH <kW) <MWh) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 550 1328 51661 4760 45608 132943 234972 227026 1984 550 1516 51661 4760 47813 151724 255958 238940 1985 550 1704 51661 4760 50024 170557 277002 249840 1986 550 205 51661 4760 32405 20488 109314 95261 1987 550 235 51661 4760 32758 23490 112669 94864 1988 850 269 73473 7240 33166 22556 136435 110990 1989 850 306 73473 7240 33590 26340 140643 110544 1990 850 343 73473 7240 34029 30451 145193 110261 19':~ 1 850 382 73473 7240 34485 34912 150110 110140 1992 850 422 73473 7240 34957 39748 155418 110179 1993 850 465 73473 7240 35464 45122 161298 110480 1994 850 515 73473 7240 36046 51431 168190 111305 1995 850 566 73473 7240 36651 58268 175631 112299 1996 850 619 73473 7240 37277 65671 183661 113462 1997 850 675 73473 7240 37927 73684 192324 114796 1998 850 732 73473 7240 38601 82346 201660 116299 19':~9 850 792 73473 7240 39300 91712 211725 117974 2000 850 860 73473 7240 40103 102616 223432 120287 2001 850 933 73473 7240 40958 114642 236313 122920 2002 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 125741 2003 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 121489 2004 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 117381 2005 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 113411 2006 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 109576 2007 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 105871 2008 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 102290 2009 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 98831 2010 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 95489 2011 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 92260 2012 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 89140 2013 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 86126 2014 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 83213 2015 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 80399 2016 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 77681 2017 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 75054 2018 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 72516 2019 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 70063 ·-2020 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 67694 2021 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 65405 2022 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 63193 2023 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 61056 2024 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 58992 2025 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 56997 2026 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 55069 2027 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 53207 2028 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 51408 2029 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 49669 2030 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 2501'38 47990 2031 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 46367 2032 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 44799 2033 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 43284 2034 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 250198 41820 2035 850 1008 73473 7240 41845 127640 25tH 98 40406 TOTAL PRESEHT WORTH: 5061753 C-5 TABLE I I I ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT: HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT O&M REPLACE. REPLACE. ANNUAL PRESE~H COSTS SERVICE SCHEDULE SINKH1G COST WORTH FUND ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ------------------------------------~..-----------------._.. ________ 1983 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1985 3817000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1986 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 159558 1987 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 154163 1988 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 148'~50 1989 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 14391:3 1990 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 139046 1991 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 134344 1992 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 129801 1993 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 125412 1994 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 121171 1995 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 117073 1996 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 11:3114 1997 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 10928'~ 1998 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 105593 1999 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 102022 2000 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 98572 2001 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 95239 2002 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 92018 2003 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 88907 2004 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 85900 2005 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 82':?195 2006 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 80189 2007 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 77477 2008 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 74857 2009 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 72326 2010 0 162733 6000 95000 14364 1:33097 69880 2011 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 67517 2012 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 65234 2013 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 63028 2014 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 60896 2015 0 162733 6000 615600 14364 1:33097 58837 2016 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1::33097 56847 2017 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 54925 2018 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 5:3068 2019 0 162733 6000 0 14364 183097 51273 2020 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 49539 2021 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 47864 2022 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 46245 2023 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 44681 2024 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 43170 2025 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 41711 2026 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 40300 2027 0 162733 6000 0 14:364 1:330':?17 38•31:;:7 2028 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:330':;:.7 :37621 2029 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 :36348 2030 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:330'517 35119 2031 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 33•3:32 2032 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:?.:3097 32784 2033 0 162733 6000 0 14364 1:33097 31676 2034 0 162733 6000 0 14:364 1:33097 :30604 2035 0 162?33 6000 0 14364 1:3:3097 2'?56'? TOTAL PRESEt-IT WORTH: 387:353:3 C-6 TABLE IV ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:CANNERY AVOIDED COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CANNERY AVOIDED OIL TOTAL PRESENT HYDRO MAINT. COST AVOIDED WORTH ENERGY COST COST <MWh) ($) ($) ($) ($) --·------------------ ------------------------------ ----------1983 0 0 0 0 0 1984 0 0 0 0 0 1985 0 0 0 0 0 1986 649 7623 64931 72555 63227 1987 620 7290 62092 69382 58417 1988 595 6987 49773 56760 46175 1989 568 6673 48962 55635 43728 1990 540 6347 47968 54315 41248 1991 511 6009 46777 52786 38731 1992 482 5659 45370 51029 36176 1993 452 5311 43864 49176 33683 1994 426 5009 42606 47615 31511 1995 400 4695 41134 45829 29303 1996 372 4369 39430 43799 27058 1997 343 4032 37473 41505 24774 1998 313 3681 35246 38927 22449 1999 282 3318 32720 36039 20081 2000 257 3019 30666 33685 18135 2001 232 2732 28579 31311 16287 2002 207 2434 26225 28659 14403 2003 207 2434 26225 28659 13916 2004 207 2434 26225 28659 13445 2005 207 2434 26225 28659 12991 2006 207 2434 26225 28659 12551 2007 207 2434 26225 28659 12127 2008 207 2434 26225 28659 11717 2009 207 2434 26225 28659 11321 2010 207 2434 26225 28659 10938 2011 207 2434 26225 28659 10568 2012 207 2434 26225 28659 10211 2013 207 2434 26225 28659 9865 2014 207 2434 26225 28659 9532 2015 207 2434 26225 28659 9209 2016 207 2434 26225 28659 8898 2017 207 2434 26225 28659 8597 2018 207 2434 26225 28659 8306 2019 207 2434 26225 28659 8025 2020 207 2434 26225 28659 7754 2021 207 2434 26225 28659 7492 2022 207 2434 26225 28659 7238 2023 207 2434 26225 28659 6994 2024 207 2434 26225 28659 6757 2025 207 2434 26225 28659 6529 2026 207 2434 26225 28659 6308 2027 207 2434 26225 28659 6095 2028 207 2434 26225 28659 5888 2029 207 2434 26225 28659 5689 2030 207 2434 26225 28659 5497 2031 207 2434 26225 28659 5311 2032 207 2434 26225 28659 5131 2033 207 2434 26225 28659 4958 2034 207 2434 26225 28659 4790 2035 207 2434 26225 28659 4628 TOTAL PRESENT WORTH: 844660 C-7 TABLE V PRESENT WORTH AND 8/C SUMMARY KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT A. BASE CASE (Benefits} Present Worth Base Case B. RECOMMENDED HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT (Costs) Present Worth Hydroelectric Costs Present Worth Supplemental Diesel Total Cost w/o Cannery Less P.W. Cannery Credit Total Net Cost w/ Cannery C. BENEFIT COST RATIO 1. 8/C w/o Cannery Credit B/C = 10,239,600 ~ 1 15 8,913,500 • 2. B/C w/ Cannery RDT:0420952a C-8 $10,239,600 $ 3,851,700 5,061,800 $ 8,913,500 844,700 $ 8,068,800 SF:IEB:AD1:2-C APPENDIX D DIESEL ANALYSES TABLE D-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:BASE CASE W/FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE DEBT INSUR. O&M OIL TOTAL UNIT CAPACITY ENERGY SERVICE COST COST DEMAND CkW) <MWh> ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (C/kWh) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) ---------------- -------- -------- -------------------------------- 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2035 550 550 550 550 550 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 1328 1516 1704 1836' 1894 1955 2018 2083 2150 2220 2293 2368 2446 2527 2612 2699 2789 2883 2980 3081 3081 3081 308'1 3081 3081 3081 3081 3081 3081 3081 3081 3081 57324 57324 57324 5732'4 57324 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 329492 329492 329492 329492 329492 403949 403949 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 20981 20981 20981 20981 20981 25511 25511 48573 54231 60427 66346 71598 77290 83460 90152 97410 105286 113836 123120 133205 144163 156074 169023 183110 198435 215113 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 233271 141584 172089 206024 236383 259749 238759 269836 305010 344815 389873 440877 498621 564006 638043 721895 816852 924430 1046280 1184310 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 1340720 252240 288403 328534 364813 393431 431419 468666 510532 557595 610529 670083 737111 812581 897576 993339 1252590 1374260 1511430 1666140 1840710 1840710 1840710 1840710 1840710 1840710 1924460 1924460 1924460 1924460 192'4460 2003450 2003450 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 23.23 24.51 25.9:3 27.50 29.22 31. 12 33.21 35.51 38.04 46.41 49.27 52.43 55.91 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 62.46 65.03 65.03 <1>Existing plant consists of 1-250 kW Detroit and 2-300 kW Cats.Add 1-530kW Cat in 1988. (2)See Table II-1. <3>Existing equipment financed at 5%.Existing equipment replaced every 15 years and financed at 10%.1988 replacement financed at 10% and replaced every 20 years. (4)$,80/$100 replacement value. (5)January 1983 fixed operating cost=$30,000.Maintenance cost=$11.75/MWh.Costs escalate at 6.5% annually for planning period <6>Fuel oil consumption rate=11.5 kWh/Gal. unti 1 1988,then decreases to 13.75kWh /Gal.January 1983 fuel oil cost=$1.13/Gal .Lube, oil consumption=0.55% of fuel oil consumption.January 1983 lube oil cost=$3.80/Gal.Oil costs escalate . at 6.5% through 1988 and then at 9.5%. <?>Sum of debt service,insurance,O&M,and oil costs. (8)Total cost of village power. 0-1 TABLE D-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS: COST OF POWER KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT: BASE CASE W/0 FUEL ESCALATIOH APRIL 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE DEBT INSUR. O&M OIL TOTAL I UtHT CAPACITY Et~ERGY SERVICE COST COST DEMAND ( k W) <MWh) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ( c ..... k l>lh) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) -------------------------------- -------------------------------- 1983 550 1328 57324 4760 48573 141584 252240 18. '39 1984 550 1516 57324 4760 54231 172089 288403 19. ~12 1985 550 1704 57324 4760 60427 206024 328534 1'3. 28 1986 550 1836 57324 4760 66346 236383 36481:=: 19.87 1987 550 1894 57324 4760 71598 25974'3 393431 20.77 1988 850 1955 107212 8158 77290 238759 431419 22.07 1989 850 2018 107212 8158 83460 262443 461273 22.86 1990 850 2083 107212 8158 90152 288527 494049 23.72 1991 850 2150 107212 8158 97410 317243 530023 24.65 1992 850 2220 107212 8158 105286 348871 569527 25.65 1993 850 2293 107212 8158 113836 383703 612909 26 .. 7:3 1994 850 2368 107212 8158 123120 422069 660559 27~89 1995 850 2446 107212 8158 133205 464336 712'H 1 29' 14 1996 850 2527 107212 8158 144163 5108'38 770431 .30. 4::: 1997 850 2612 107212 8158 156074 562204 833648 31. '32 1998 850 2699 251075 15640 169023 618725 1054460 :3'3. ~37 1999 850 2789 251075 15640 183110 681027 1130850 413. 54 2000 850 2883 251075 15640 198435 749676 1214830 42. 14 2001 850 2980 251075 15640 215113 825329 1307160 43.86 2002. 850 3081 251075 15640 233271 908727 1408710 45.72 2003 850 3081 251075 15640 233271 908727 1408710 45.72 2004 850 3081 251075 15640 233271 908727 1408710 45.72 2005 850 3081 251075 15640 233271 908727 1408710 45.72 2006 850 3081 251075 15640 233271 908727 1408710 45.72 2007 850 3081 251075 15640 233271 '308727 1408710 41:" / ..... • _l • 1 G. 2008 850 3081 329492 20981 233271 908727 1492470 48.44 2009 850 3081 329492 20981 2:33271 908727 14'32470 48.44 2010 850 3081 329492 20981 233271 908727 1492470 4:::. 44 2011 850 3081 329492 20981 233271 908727 14'32470 4E:. 44 2012 850 3081 329492 20981 233271 ·~08727 1492470 48.44 2013 850 3081 403949 25511 233271 908727 1571460 51.~11 2035 850 3081 403949 25511 233271 908727 1571460 51.01 (!)Existing plant consists of 1-250 kW Detroit Diesel and 2-300kW Cats.Add 1-530 kW Cat in 1988. (2)See Table II-1. (3)Existing equipment financed at 5%.Existing equipment replaced every 15 years and financed at 18%.1988 replacement financed at 10% and replaced every 20 years (4)$.80/$100 replacement value. (5)$30000 fixed cost plus $11.75/MWh escalated at 6.5% annually. < 6 ) F u e 1 •::O i 1 •: on s '.l m p t i on t' .:.. t ..:-= 11 • 5 k W h / G a 1 u n t,. i 1 1 9 8 8 , t. he t·, ,j e•: !'"· .::· .:..s e s ~-o 1 3 . 7 5 kWh/Gal.January 1983 fuel cost=$1. 13/Gal.Lube oil consumption=0.55% of fuel oil consumption.Price escalates at 6.5% annually <?>Total base case annual cost, C8)Total unit cost of village power. 0-2 TABLE D-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL W/FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE DEBT IHSUR. O&M OIL TOTAL UHIT CAPACITY ENERGY SERVICE COST COST DEMAND <kW) <MWh) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (C/kWh) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2035 550 550 550 550 550 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 1328 1516 1704 205 235 269 306 343 382 422 465 515 566 619 675 732 792 860 933 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 57324 57324 57324 57324 57324 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 329492 329492 329492 329492 329492 403949 403949 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 20981 20981 20981 20981 20981 25511 25511 48573 54231 60427 41689 44881 48394 52198 56318 60782 65620 70897 76746 83105 90020 97543 105729 114641 124587 135514 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 141584 172089 206024 26357 32183 32912 40860 50218 61207 74084 8~406 108339 130487 156346 186493 221570 262343 312059 370630 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 438692 252240 288403 328534 130129 139148 196677 208428 221906 237359 255074 275674 300455 328962 361736 399406 594014 643699 703361 772859 852855 852855 852855 852855 852855 852855 936613 9366·13 936613 936613 936613 1015600 1015600 18.39 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.33 10.65 11.04 11.49 12.02 12.69 13.45 14.31 15.29 22.01 23.08 24.40 25.93 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 27.68 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 30.40 32.96 32.96 <!>Existing plant consists of 1-250kW Detroit Diesel and 2-300kW Cats.Add 1-530kW Cat. in 1988 <2>See Table II-1. (3)Existing equipment financed at 5%.Existing equipment replaced every 15 years and financed at 10%.1988 replacement finanaced at 10% and replaced every 20 years. (4)$.80/1100 replacement value. <5>January 1983 fixed operating cost=$30,000/year.Maintenance cost=$11.75/MWh. Costs escalate at 6>5% annually for planning period. <6>Fuel oil consumption rate=11.5 kWh/Gal until 1988,then d~creases to 13.75 kWh/Gal.January 1983 fuel oil cost=$1.13/Gal.Lube oil consumption rate=0.55% of fueloil consumption.January 1983 lube oil cost=13.80/Gal.Oil costs escalate at 6.5% through January 1988 and then at 9.5% <?>Sum of debt service,insurance,and O&M. <8>Supplementa1 diesel cost for hydro case. D-3 TABLE D-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER KING COYE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL W/0 FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE DEBT INSUR. O&M OIL TOTAL UNIT CAPACITY ENERGY SERVICE COST COST DEMAND CkW) CMWh) ($) C$) ($) ($) ($) (C/kWh) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) -------------------------------- -------------------------------- 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20~4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2035 550 550 550 550 550 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 1328 1516 1704 205 235 269 306 343 382 422 465 515 566 619 675 732 792 860 933 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 57324 57324 57324 57324 57324 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 107212 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 251075 3294'32 :329492 329492 329492 329492 403949 403949 4760 4760 4760 4760 4760 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 8158 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 15640 20981 20981 20981 20981 20981 25511 25511 48573 54231 60427 41689 44881 48394 52198 56318 60782 65620 70897 76746 83105 90020 97543 105729 114641 124587 135514 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 147448 141584 172089 206024 26357 .32183 32912 39740 47504 56313 66293 77812 91706 107427 125190 145238 167828 193268 223595 258286 297342 297342 297342 297342 297342 297342 297342 297342 297342 297342 297342 297:342 297342 252240 288403 328534 1:30129 139148 196677 207:309 219192 232465 247283 264079 283822 305902 3:30580 358151 540272 574624 614897 660515 711505 711505 711505 711505 711505 711505 795263 7'35263 795263 795263 795263 874250 874250 18. 9•;. 19.02 19.28 7. 0·;. 7.35 10.06 10.28 10.52 10.81 11. 14 11~~52 11" '38 12.50 13.08 1:3.71 20.02 20.60 21.33 22. 16 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 2:3. 09 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 28.38 28.38 <!>Existing plant consists of 1-250kW Detroit Diesel and 2-300 kW Cats.Add 1-530k ~J Cat. in 1988. <2>See Table II-2 (3)Existing eqyipment financed at 5%.Existing equipment replaced every 15 years and financed at 10%.1988 replacement financed at 10% and replaced every 20 years. (4)$.80/$100 replacement valye. C5)January 1983 operation cost=$30,000.Maintenance cost= $11.75/MWh.Costs escalate at 6.5% annually for planning period. (6)Fuel oil consumption rate=11.5kWh/Gal until 1988,then decreases to 13.75kWh /Gal.Lube oil consumption=0.55% of fuel oil consumption.Januarv 1983 fuel oil cost=$1.13/Gal and lube oil cost=$3.80/Gal.Costs escalate ~t 6.5%. (?)Total annual cost of supplemental diesel. (8)Annual unit cost of supplemental diesel. 0-4 SF:IEB:AD1:2-C APPENDIX E HYDROELECTRIC ANALYSES TABLE E-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE I-A:100% REVENUE BONDS WITH LEVEL PAYMENTS KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) O&M ($) (3) REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) REPLAC. RESERVE SINKING FUND FUND ($) ($) (5) (6) INT. ON RESERVE ($) (7) TOTAL COST ($) (8) UNIT COST (c/kWh) (9) --------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 0 0 5287200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 548239 0 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 0 0 0 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 603063 301531 301531 0 0 0 0 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 30153 30153 0 0 0 0 512242 512744 513278 513847 514453 515099 515786 516518 517298 518128 519012 519954 520957 522026 523163 524375 525665 525665 525665 254287 254287 37732 37732 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.90 27.07 26.26 25.47 24.70 23.96 23.23 22.53 21.84 21. 18 20.53 19.91 19.30 18.72 18.15 17.60 17.06 17.06 17.06 8.25 8.25 1. 22 1. 22 <l>Capital cost including 10% interest during construction,3.75% financing charge,and reserve equal to 110% of one years debt service. (2)Debt sservice for 35 years at 10%. (3)$5,000 for 1983. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt service. <7> 10% annual interest on reserve fund. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. E-1 TABLE E-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE I-B:100% REVENUE BONDS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE RATE OF INCREASE IN ANNUAL DEBT SERVI~E:9.5% KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS YEAR CAPITAL DEBT COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) O&M ($) (3) APRIL 1984 REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) REPLAC. RESERVE SINKING FUND FUND ($) ($) (5) (6) INT. TOTAL ON COST RESERVE ($) ($) (7) (8) ------- ------------------------------------------------- 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 0 0 5287200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 270629 296339 324491 355318 389073 426035 466508 510826 559355 612493 670680 714490 714490 714490 714.490 714490 714490 714490 714490 714490 714490 0 0 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 0 0 0 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 603062 201021 201021 201021 0 0 0 0 0 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60306 60:306 60306 60306 60306 20102 20102 20102 0 0 0 2:346:32 260844 289530 320926 355287 3928';.5 4:34055 479105 528414 582382 641454 686205 687208 688277 689414 690626 691916 691916 531099 5:310''9 531099 37732 Ut-H T COST (,:/kWh) (';;.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.78 13.77 14.81 15.91 17.06 1 l~ ... ,..., ....... ,:.,t 1 '3. 55 20.89 22~31 23.81 25.38 26.28 25.46 24.68 23. '? 1 23.17 22.46 22.46 17.24 17.24 17.24 1. 22 1. 22 (!)Capital cost including 10% interest during construction~3.75% financing charge,and reserve equal to 110% of one years debt service. (2)Debt service required to make 1986 unit energy cost the same as base case. Maximum allowable annual rate of incease in energy cost=~.5%.Capital costs fully amortized over remainder of 35 year financin9 period when amortization exceeds maxi•um allowable payment. (3)$5,000 for 1983.Escalates at 6.5% annually. <4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace tra~smission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt service. (7)10~·: anmlal interest eat'n>?d on r·eser•.;e. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. E-2 TABLE E-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-A:50% REVENUE BONDS & 50% STATE GRANT KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) 0 0 2643600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 274114 0 274114 0 274114 0 274114 0 274114 0 0 0 0 O&M ($) (3) 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 i8640 19852 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 REPLAC. SINKING FUND ($) (5) 0 0 0 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 RESERVE INT. FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) 0 0 0 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 301525 150763 150763 0 0 0 0 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 30153 15076 15076 0 TOTAL COST ($) (8) 0 0 0 268271 268773 269307 269876 270482 271127 271815 272547 273327 274157 275041 275983 276986 278054 279192 280404 281694 281694 281694 146007 146007 37732 37732 UNIT COST (c/kWh) (9) 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.61 14. 19 13.78 13.38 12.99 12.61 12.24 11.89 11.54 11.21 10.88 10.57 10.26 9.97 9.68 9.41 9. 14 9. 14 9. 14 4.74 4.74 1. 22 1. 22 <l)Capital cost for 50% of construction cost.Includes interEst during construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid by state grant (2) 10% for 35 years. (3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually. C4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. C5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt sevice. (7)10% annual interest earned on reserve. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. E-3 TABLE E-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-B:40% REVENUE BONDS L 60% STATE GRANT KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT OLM COST SERVICE REPLAC. REPLAC. RESERVE INT. TOTAL SCHED. SINKING FUND ON COST UNIT COST FUND RESERVE ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (c/kWh) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) -------------- ----------------------------------------~~ ------- 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 0 0 2114900 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 219293 0 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 0 0 0 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 241222 120611 120611 0 13 13 13 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 2412:2 24122 24122 24122 2412:2 24122 24122 24122 2412:2 24122 12061 12061 13 0 0 0 219480 219982 220516 221085 221691 222337 223024 223756 224536 225366 226251 227192 228195 229264 230401 231613 232903 232903 232903 124353 12435:3 37732 3 ...,??--· ( I •,;;;l.::, 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.95 11.61 11.28 10.96 10.64 10.34 10.04 '3. 76 9.48 ·~. 21 8.95 8.70 8.46 8.22 7.99 7.77 7.56 7.56 7.56 4.04 4.04 1. 22 1. 22 Cl)Capital cost for 40% of construction cost.Includes interest during construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid by state grant C2) 10% for 35 years. (3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually. C4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt sevice. (7)10% annual interest earned on reserve. C8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. E-4 TABLE E-5 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-C:43.1% REVENUE BONDS & 56.9% STATE GRANT KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS YEAR CAPITAL DEBT 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199a 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2aaa 2a01 2a02 2a17 2a18 2a19 2a20 2a21 2a35 COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) <2> a 0 22791a0 a a a a a a a a a a a a 0 0 0 0 a a a a a a a 0 a 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 236319 286319 236319 236319 236319 236319 a 0 O&M ($) (3) 0 a 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 993a 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 21142 APRIL 1984 REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) 0 a 0 0 a 0 a a a 0 a a 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 REPLAC. SINKING FUND ($) (5) 0 a 0 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 RESERVE INT. FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) 0 0 0 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 259951 129975 129975 0 0 0 0 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 25995 12998 12998 0 0 TOTAL COST ($) (8) a 0 0 234633 235135 235669 236238 236844 237490 238177 238909 239689 24a519 241404 242345 243349 244417 245554 246766 248a56 248056 248056 131079 131079 37732 37732 UNIT COST (c/kWh> (9) 0.a0 0.00 0.00 12.78 12.41 12.06 11.71 11.37 11.04 10.73 10.42 10. 12 9.83 9.55 9.28 9.02 8.76 8.52 8.28 8.05 8.05 8.05 4.25 4.25 1. 22 1. 22 <l>Capital cost for 43.1% of construction cost.Includes interest during construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance ,~f construction paid by state grant.First year total cost of energy equal to base case. <2> 10% for 35 years. (3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt sevice. (7)10% annual interest earned on reserve. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. <9>Annual unit cost of hydro. E-5 TABLE E-6 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE III-A:STATE LOAN WITH 35 YEAR PAYBACK KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) O&M ($) (3) REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) REPLAC. SINKING FUND ($) (5) RESERVE INT. FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) TOTAL COST ($) (8) UNIT COST <•:/kWh) (9) --------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2020 2021 2035 0 0 4118000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 251493 0 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 21142 21142 21142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16'591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 16591 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 275802 276304 276838 277407 278013 27865'' 279346 280078 280858 281688 282573 283515 284518 285586 286723 287935 289225 28SI225 37732 37732 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.02 14.59 14. 16 13.75 13.35 12.96 12.58 12.21 11,86 1 L 51 11. 18 10.86 10.54 10.24 9.95 9.66 ·:;., :39 9.39 1. 22 1. 22 (!)Capital cost with no allowance for interest during construction,finance fees or reserve fund. <2>Debt service for 35 years at 5%. (3)$5,000 for 1983,escalate at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds superimposed. <6>No reserve required. <7>No reserve required. <8>Annual total hydro cost. <9>Annual unit hydro cost. E-6 TABLE E-7 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE III-B:STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT OIS:M REPLAC. REPLAC. RESERVE INT. TOTAL UNIT COST SERVICE SCHED. SINKING FUND ON COST COST FUND RESERVE ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (c/kWh) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) I ------- ------- ------------------------------------------------- -·' 1983 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 1984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 1985 4118000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 1986 0 0 7719 0 16591 0 0 24309 1. 32 1987 0 0 8221 0 16591 0 0 24811 1. 31 1988 0 0 8755 0 16591 0 0 25345 1. 30 1989 0 0 9324 0 16591 0 0 25914 1.28 1990 0 0 9930 0 16591 0 0 26521 1. 27 1991 0 0 10575 0 16591 0 0 27166 1. 26 1992 0 0 11263 0 16591 0 0 27853 1. 25 1993' 0 0 11995 0 16591 0 0 28585 1. 25 1994 0 0 12775 0 16591 0 0 29365 1. 24 1995 0 0 13605 0 16591 0 0 30195 1. 23 1996 0 475934 14489 0 16591 0 0 507014 20.06 1997 0 475934 15431 0 16591 0 0 507956 19.45 1998 0 475934 16434 0 16591 0 0 508959 18.86 1999 0 475934 17502 0 16591 0 0 510027 18.29 2000 0 475934 18640 0 16591 0 0 511164 17.73 2001 0 475934 19852 0 16591 0 0 512376 17. 19 ,_ .. 2002 0 475934 21142 0 16591 0 0 513666 16.67 2020 0 475934 21142 0 16591 0 0 513666 16.67 2021 0 0 21142 0 16591 0 0 37732 1. 22 2035 0 0 21142 0 16591 0 0 37732 1. 22 < 1) Capita 1 cost without interest during construction,financ~ charge,or re-::.er--1 • .Je-. (2)Payment deferred for 10 years then amortized over 25 years at 5'-~. (3)$5,000 for 1983.Escalates at 6. 5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 )-•ears. <5>Sinking funds superimposed. <6>No reserve fund required. <7>No reserve fund required. (8) Annual hydro cost. (8)Annual hydro unit cost. E-7 TABLE E-8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE IV: STATE EQUITY INVESTMEtH KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL TOTAL O&M REPLACEt'1EHT REPLACEI'1ENT RETURN ON mnT COST ANNUAL SCHEDULE OF SINKING INVESTt1EHT COST I COST INVESTMENT FUND ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (c/1-::Wh) ,~ (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ' ----------------------------------------------------------------~~~~ ~ 1983 0 e e e e e 1984 e e e e e a 0.~01 1985 4118000 0 0 e e 0 0.1;1(11 1986 0 205900 7719 0 165'31 181591 11. ;;;·21 1987 0 205900 8221 0 16591 18108'3 10. :37 .,. 1988 0 205900 8755 0 16591 180555 10.5:3 1989 e 205900 9324 0 16591 179986 10.211 1990 0 205900 9930 0 16591 179380 9.89 1991 0 205900 10575 0 16591 178734 9 g 58 t'' 1992 0 205900 11263 0 16591 178047 ·~ .-1..., 1993 a 205900 11995 0 16591 177315 8. ~~ l • "OJ 1994 0 205900 12775 0 16591 176535 ·-q 8. t;l ... ": 1995 0 205900 13605 0 16591 175705 :::.42. 1996 0 205900 14489 0 16591 174820 8. 15l 1997 0 205900 15431 0 16591 173879 ~ ~-.,-, i • ·=-•;:i 1998 0 205900 16434 0 16591 172875 7 II ("l:3 ' 1999 0 205900 17502 0 16591 171807 7 • :;:::;I 2000 0 205900 18640 0 16591 170670 7. l4l 20€.H 0 205900 19852 0 16591 169458 ~ q 1 . ... "i ~· 2002 0 205900 21142 0 16591 168168 6. 68 "" I 2035 0 205900 21142 0 16591 168168 6.681 (!)Capital cost without interest during construction,finance charge,or reserv€. (2) 5% of project capital cost return to state annually. (3) $5000 for 1983,e5ca1ated at 6.5% annually. ( 4) Rep 1 ace runner every 25 ye·ar5. Rep 1 ace t. ran:sm i 55 ion 1 i nes e•..Jer~,.' 30 ~,,•e·ar·:s. (5)Sinking funds :superimposed. C6)Net return to state after paying O&M and sinking fund. (7)Unit cost to consumers. E-8 SF:IEB:AD1:2-C APPENDIX F CANNERY ANAlYSES TABLE F-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:CANNERY W/FUEL ESCALATION KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:CANNERY APRIL 1984 YEAR CANNERY VILLAGE ENERGY SAVINGS ENERGY SAVINGS ENERGY SAVINGS ENERGY ENERGY VALUE VALUE VALUE DEMAND DEMAND <MWh> <MWh) c/kWh c/kWh c/kWh C/kWh c/kWh c/kWh (1) (1) (2) (3) (4) (3) (5) (3) -------------------------------- -------------------------------- 1983 0.00 1328.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 0.00 1516.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 0.00 1704.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 648.78 1835.94 15.00 5.30 20.00 7.07 25.00 8.83 1987 620.41 1894.30 15.68 5. 13 20.90 6.85 26.13 8.56 1988 594.63 1954.84 16.66 5.07 22.21 6.76 27.77 8.45 1989 567.90 2017.61 17.54 4.94 23.38 6.58 29.23 8.23 1990 540.17 2082.75 18.50 4.80 24.67 6.40 30.84 8.00 1991 511.41 2150.28 19.58 4.66 26.10 6.21 32.63 7.76 1992 481.59 2220.33 20.76 4.50 27.68 6.00 34.60 7.50 1993 452.04 2292.97 22.06 4.35 29.41 5.80 36.77 7.25 1994 426.28 2368.30 23.50 4.23 31.33 5.64 39.16 7.05 1995 399.56 2446.45 25.07 4. 10 33.43 5.46 41.79 6.83 1996 371.86 2527.48 26.81 3.94 35.74 5.26 44.68 6.57 1997 343.11 2611.55 28.71 3.77 38.28 5.03 47.86 6.29 1998 313.31 2698.69 35.04 4.07 46.72 5.42 58.40 6.78 1999 282.40 2789.14 37. 19 3.77 49.59 5.02 61.99 6.28 2000 256.95 2882.90 39.58 3.53 52.77 4.70 65.96 5.88 2001 232.50 2980.12 42.20 3.29 56.27 4.39 70.34 5.49 2002 207.13 3080.99 45.10 3.03 60. 13 . 4.04 75. 17 5.05 2003 207.13 3080.99 45.10 3.03 60.13 4.04 75.17 5.05 2004 207.13 3080.99 45.10 3.03 60.13 4.04 75.17 5.05 2005 207.13 3080.99 45.10 3.03 60.13 4.04 75.17 5.05 2006 207.13 3080.99 45.10 3.03 60.13 4.04 75. 17 5.05 2007 207.13 3080.99 45.10 3.03 60.13 4.04 75.17 5.05 2008 207.13 3080.99 47.15 3. 17 62.87 4.23 78.59 5.28 2009 207.13 3080.99 47.15 3. 17 62.87 4.23 78.59 5.28 2010 207.13 3080.99 47.15 3. 17 62.87 4.23 78.59 5.28 2011 207.13 3080.99 47.15 3.17 62.87 4.23 78.59 5.28 2012 207.13 3080.99 47.15 3. 17 62.87 4.23 78.59 5.28 2013 207.13 3080.99 49.09 3.30 65.45 4.40 81. 81 5.50 2035 207.13 3080.99 49.09 3.30 65.45 4.40 81.81 5.50 (l)See Table II-2 <2)15 c/kWh for 1986,escalates at same rate as the base c asoe .. (3)Potent i al cost reduction to vi 1 1 age system. (4)20 c/kWh for 1986,escalates at same rate as the base c asoe. (5)25 c/kWh for 1986,escalates at same rate as the base c asoe. F-1 TABLE F-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS: CANNERY W/0 FUEL ESCALATION KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT: CANNER'1' APRIL 1984 YEAR CANNERY VILLAGE ENERGY SAVINGS ENERGY SAVINGS ENERG'1' I SA'·/ I t~GS ENERGY ENERGY VALUE VALUE VALUE DEMAND DEMAND (MWh) <MWh) c/kWh c/kWh c/kWh c/kWh •: /kWh c/ld·lh (1) (1) (2) (3) (4) (3) (5) (3) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 0.00 1328.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 0.00 1516.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 0.00 1704. 17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 648.78 1835.94 15.00 5.30 20.00 7.07 25.00 8.83 1987 620.41 1894.30 15.68 5. 13 20.90 6.85 26. 13 :::.56 1988 594.63 1954.84 16.66 5.07 22.21 6.76 27.77 8.45 1989 567.90 2017.61 17.26 4.86 23.01 6.48 28.76 8. 10 1990 540.17 2082.75 17.91 4.64 23.88 6. 19 29.84 7.74 1991 511.41 2150.28 18.61 4.43 24.81 5.90 31.01 .., .-,1'":) I • ~~~ 1992 481.59 2220.33 19.36 4.20 25.82 5.60 32.27 7.00 1993 452.04 2292.97 20.18 3.98 26.90 5.30 3:3. 6:3 6. 6:3 1994 426.28 2368:30 21.06 3.79 28.07 5.05 35.09 6.::::2 1995 399.56 2446.45 22.00 3.59 29,33 4.79 36.66 s. '39 1996 371.86 2527.48 23.01 3.39 30.68 4.51 38.35 5.64 1997 343. 11 2611.55 24. 10 3.17 32.13 4.22 40. 16 5.28 1998 313.31 2698.69 29.50 3.42 39.33 4.57 49.16 5.71 1999 282.40 2789.14 30.61 3. 10 40.81 4.13 51.01 5. 16 2000 256.95 2882.90 31.81 2.84 42.41 3.78 53.02 4.73 2001 232.50 2980.12 33' 11 2.58 44.15 3.44 55.19 4.31 2002 207.13 3080.99 34.52 2.32 46.02 3.09 57.53 3.87 2003 207.13 3080.99 34.52 2.32 46.02 3.09 57.53 :3.87 2004 207.13 3080.99 34.52 2.32 46.02 3.09 57.53 :3. 87 2-005 207.13 3080.99 34.52 2.32 46.02 3.09 57.53 3 .. 87 2006 207.13 3080.99 34.52 2.32 46.02 3.09 57.53 :3. :37 2007 207.13 3080.99 34.52 2.32 46.02 3.09 57.53 :3.87 2008 207.13 3080.99 36.57 2.46 48.76 :3.28 60.95 4.10 2009 207.13 3080.99 36.57 2.46 48.76 3.28 60.95 4. 10 2010 207.13 3080.99 36.57 2.46 48.76 3.28 60.95 4. 10 2011 207.13 3080.99 36.57 2.46 48.76 3.28 60.95 4. 1 e 2012 207.13 3080.99 36.57 2.46 48.76 3.28 60.95 4. 10 2013 207.13 3080.99 38.50 2.59 51.34 3.45 64. 17 4.31 2035 207.13 3080.99 38.50 2.59 51.34 3.45 64. 17 4. :31 (!)See Table II-2 (2) 15 c/kWh for 1986,escalates at same rat,.;:-as base c a:s.e. (3)Potent i al cost, reduction to \) i 1 1 age system. (4) 20 c/kWh for 1986,escalat,es at same r~ate as ba:::.e ~:ase. (5) 25 C/kWh f•:.r 1':;186,escalates at s.ame rate .as ba.s.e c .ase-. F-2 SF:IEB:AD1:2-C APPENDIX G FINANCIAL SUMMARIES WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION TABLE G-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-A WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL CANNERY CANNERY CANNERY CASE DIESEL VILLAGE CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> 15c 20c 25c (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) --------------------------------------------- ------------------ 1983 18.99 18.99 0.00 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19.02 0.00 19.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 0.00 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 7.09 27.90 34.99 5.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20,77 7.35 27.07 34.41 5. 13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 10.06 26.26 36.32 5.07 6.76 8.45 1989 22.86 10.28 25.47 35.74 4.86 6.48 8. 10 1990 23.72 10.52 24.70 35.22 4.64 6. 19 7.74 1991 24.65 10.81 23.96 34.77 4.43 5.90 7.38 1992 25.65 11. 14 23.23 34.37 4.20 5.60 7.00 1993 26.73 11.52 22.53 34.04 3.98 5.30 6.63 1994 27.89 11.98 21.84 33.83 3.79 5.05 6.32 1995 29. 14 12.50 21. 18 33.68 3.59 4.79 5.99 1996 30.48 13.08 20.53 33.61 3.39 4.51 5.64 1997 31,92 13.71 19.91 33.62 3. 17 4.22 5.28 1998 39.07 20.02 19.30 39.32 3.42 4.57 5.71 1999 40.54 20.60 18.72 39.32 3. 10 4. 13 5. 16 2000 42.14 21.33 18. 15 39.48 2.84 3.78 4.73 2001 43.86 22. 16 17.60 39. 7.6 2.58 3.44 4.31 2002 45.72 23.09 17.06 40.16 2.32 3.09 3.87 2003 . 45. 72 23.09 17.06 40.16 2.32 3.09 3.87 2004 45.72 23.09 17.06 40.16 2.32 3.09 3.87 2005 45.72 23.09 17.06 40.16 2.32 3.09 3.87 2006 45.72 23.09 17.06 40.16 2.32 3.09 3.87 2007 45.72 23.09 17.06 40.16 2.32 3.09 3.87 2008 48.44 25.81 17.06 42.87 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2009 48.44 25.81 17.06 42.87 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2010 48.44 25.81 17.06 42.87 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2011 48.44 25.81 17.06 42.87 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2012 48.44 25.81 17.06 42.87 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2018 51.01 28.38 17.06 45.44 2.59 3.45 4.31 2019 51.01 28.38 8.25 36.63 2.59 3.45 4.31 2020 51.01 28.38 8.25 36.63 2.59 3.45 4.31 2021 51.01 28.38 1. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 2035 51.01 28.38 1. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 <1>See Table D-2 <2>See Table D-4 <3>See Table E-1 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-2 <6>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-2 (7 )Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-1 TABLE G-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-B WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE CASE (c/kWh) SUPPL. HYDRO. DIESEL (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (1) (2) (3) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 22.86 23.72 24.65 25.65 26.73 27.89 29.14 30.48 31.92 39.07 40.54 42.14 43.86 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 Cl)See Table D-2 < 2 ) See Tab le-D-4 (3)See Table E-2 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.28 10.52 10.81 11 . 14 11.52 11.98 12.50 13.08 13.71 20.02 20.60 21.33 22. 16 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 28.38 28.38 28.38 28.38 28.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.78 13.77 14.81 15.91 17.06 18.27 19.55 20.89 22.31 23.81 25.38 26.28 25.46 24.68 23.91 23.17 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 22.46 17.24 17.24 17.24 1. 22 1. 22 APRIL 1984 TOTAL CANNERY VILLAGE CREDIT (C/kWh) (c/kWh) 15c (4) (5) 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 21.12 24.87 26.18 27.58 29.08 30.69 32.41 34.30 36.31 38.46 39.99 45.48 45.28 45.24 45.34 45.55 45.55 45.55 45.55 45.55 45.55 48.27 48.27 48.27 48.27 48.27 45.61 45.61 45.61 29.60 29.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5. 13 5.07 4.86 4.64 4.43 4.20 3.98 3.79 3.59 3.39 3. 17 3.42 3. 10 2.84 2.58 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. C5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-2 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-2 <?>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-2 CANNERY CREDIT (c;/ki>Jh) 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.48 6. 19 5.90 5.60 5.30 5.05 4.79 4.51 4.22 4.57 4. 13 3.78 3.44 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh) 25c (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8. 10 7.74 7.38 7.00 6 .. 63 6.32 5.99 5"64 5.28 5.71 5. 16 4.73 4.31 3.87 :3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 4. 10 4. 10 4. 1t1 4' 10 4. 10 4.31 4. :31 4.31 4.31 4.31 TABLE G-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I I -A WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL CANNERY CANNERY CANNERY CASE DIESEL VILLAGE CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kl.oJh) (C/kWh) 15c 20c 25c (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ------------------ --------- ------------------------------------ 1983 18.99 18.99 0.00 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19.02 0.00 19.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 0.00 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 7.09 14.61 21.70 5.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 7.35 14. 19 21.53 5.13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 10.06 13.78 23.84 5.07 6.76 8.45 1989 22.86 10.28 13.38 23.65 4.86 6.48 a. 10 1990 23.72 10.52 12.99 23.51 4.64 6.19 7.74 1991 24.65 10.81 12.61 23.42 4.43 5.90 7.38 1992 25.65 11. 14 12.24 23.38 4.20 5.60 7.00 1993 26.73 11.52 11.89 23.40 3.98 5.30 6.63 1994 27.89 11.98 11.54 23.53 3.79 5.05 6.32 1995 29.14 12.50 11.21 23.71 3.59 4.79 5.99 1996 30.48 13.08 10.88 23.96 3.39 4.51 5.64 1997 31.92 13.71 10.57 24.28 3.17 4.22 5.28 1998 39.07 20.02 10.26 30.28 3.42 4.57 5.71 1999 40.54 20.60 9.97 30.57 3.10 4. 13 5. 16 2000 42.14 21.33 9.68 31.01 2.84 3.78 4.73 2001 43.86 22.16 9.41 31.57 2.58 3.44 4.31 2002 45.72 23.09 9. 14 32.24 2.32 3.09 3.87 2003 45.72 23.09 9.14 32.24 2.32 3.09 3.87 2004 45.72 23.09 9. 14 32.24 2.32 3.09 3.87 2005 45.72 23.09 9. 14 32.24 2.32 3.09 3.87 2006 45.72 23.09 9. 14 32.24 2.32 3.09 3.87 2007 45.72 23.09 9. 14 32.24 2.32 3.09 3.87 2008 48.44 25.81 9. 14 34.95 2.46 3.28 4. HI 2009 48.44 25.81 9. 14 34.95 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2010 48.44 25.81 9. 14 34.95 2.46 3.28 4.10 2011 48.44 25.81 9. 14 34.95 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2012 48.44 25.81 9.14 34.95 2.46 3.28 4.10 2018 51.01 28.38 9. 14 37.52 2.59 3.45 4.31 2019 51.01 28.38 4.74 33.11 2.59 3.45 4.31 2020 51.01 28.38 4.74 33 0 11 2.59 3.45 4.31 2021 51.01 28.38 1. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 2035 51.01 28.38 1. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 <l>See Table D-2 <2>See Table D-4 <3>See Table E-3 (4)SYm of hydro and sYpplemental diesel costs. (5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-2 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-2 (7)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-3 TABLE G-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-B WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE CASE (c:/kWh) SUPPL. HYDRO. DIESEL (c/kWh) (c:/kWh) (2) (3) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 22.86 23.72 24.65 25.65 26.73 27.89 29. 14 30.48 31.92 39.07 40,54 42. 14 43.86 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 (l)See Table D-2 (2)See Table D-4 (3)See Table E-4 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.28 10.52 10.81 11. 14 11.52 11.98 12.50 13.08 13.71 20.02 20.60 21.33 22.16 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 28.38 28. :38 28.38 28.38 28.:38 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.95 11. 61 11.28 10.96 10.64 10.34 10.04 9.76 9.48 9.21 8.95 8.70 8.46 8.22 7.99 7.77 7.56 7.56 7.56 7.56 7,56 7.56 7.56 7.56 7.56 7.56 7.56 7.56 4.04 4.04 1. 22 1. 22 APRIL 1984 TOTAL VILLAGE CC/kWh) (4) 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.04 18.96 21.34 21.23 21. 17 21.15 21. 18 21.28 21.47 21.72 22.03 22.41 28.48 28.82 29.32 29.94 30.65 30.65 30.65 30.65 30.65 30.65 33.37 33.37 33.37 33.37 33.37 35.94 32.41 32.41 29.60 29.60 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh) 15c: (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5.13 5.07 4.86 4.64 4.43 4.20 3.98 3.79 3.59 3.39 3. 17 3.42 3.10 2.84 2.58 2,32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 C4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Cannery credit for 1986 c:ost=15c:/kWh.See Table F-2 C6)Cannery credit for 1986 c:ost=20c/kWh.See Table F-2 C7)Cannery credit for 1986 c:ost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-4 CANNER'!' CREDIT (c/kl4h) 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.48 6. 19 5.90 5.60 5.30 5.05 4.79 4.51 4.22 4.57 4. 13 3.78 3.44 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 CANNER'\" CREDIT (c/k~·~h) 25c: (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8 0 10 7.74 7.38 7.00 6.63 6.32 5.99 5.64 5.28 5.71 5. 16 4.73 4.31 :3.87 3.87 .3. :37 :3.87 3.87 :3.87 4. 10 4. 10 4. 10 4. 10 4. 10 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 TABLE G-5 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-C WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE CASE <c/kWh> 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 (1) 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 22.86 23.72 24.65 25.65 26.73 27.89 29.14 30.48 31.92 39.07 40.54 42.14 43.86 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 SUPPL. DIESEL (c/kWh> (2) 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.28 10.52 10.81 11. 14 11.52 11.98 12.50 13.08 13.71 20.02 20.60 21.33 22. 16 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 28.38 28.38 28.38 28.38 28.38 < 1> See Tab 1e D-2 <2>See Table D-4 <3>See Table E-5 HYDRO. (3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.78 12.41 12.06 11.71 11.37 11.04 10.73 10.42 10. 12 9.83 9,55 9.28 9.02 8.76 8.52 8.28 8.05 8,05 8.05 8,05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8,05 8.05 4.25 4.25 1. 22 1. 22 APRIL 1984 TOTAL VILLAGE (C/kWh) (4) 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 19.76 22.12 21.98 21.90 21.86 21.86 21.94 22.10 22.34 22.63 22.99 29.04 29.37 29.85 30.44 31. 14 31.14 31. 14 31. 14 31. 14 31. 14 33.86 33.86 33.86 33.86 33.86 36.43 32.63 32.63 29.60 29.60 CANNERY CREDIT <c /kWh) 15c (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5. 13 5.07 4.86 4.64 4.43 4.20 3.98 3.79 3.59 3.39 3. 17 3.42 3. 10 2.84 2.58 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 <4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-2 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-2 <?>Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-5 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh> 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.48 6. 19 5.90 5.60 5.30 5.05 4.79 4.51 4.22 4.57 4.13 3.78 3.44 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 CANNERY CREDIT (c/kWh> 25c (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8. 10 7.74 7.38 7.00 6.63 6.32 5.99 5.64 5.28 5.71 5. 16 4.73 4.31 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 4.10 4. 1 a 4.10 4. 10 4. 10 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 TABLE G-6 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-A WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL CANNERY CANNER'r' CANNEl':'!' CASE DIESEL VILLAGE CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) <C/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kl<Jh) (c/kWh) 15c 20c 25c (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) --------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 18.99 18.99 0.00 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19.02 0.00 19.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 19.28 19.28 0.00 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 7.09 15.02 22. 11 5.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 7.35 14.59 21.93 5. 13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 10.06 14. 16 24.22 5.07 6.76 8.45 1989 22.86 10.28 13.75 24.02 4.86 6.48 8. 10 1990 23.72 10.52 13.35 23.87 4.64 6. 19 7.74 1991 24.65 10.81 12.96 23.77 4.43 5.90 7.38 1992 25.65 11. 14 12.58 23.72 4.20 5.60 7.00 1993 26.73 11.52 12.21 23.73 3.98 5.30 6.63 1994 27.89 11.98 11. 86 23.84 3,79 5.05 6.3~ 1995 29. 14 12.50 11.51 24.02 3.59 4.79 5.99 1996 30.48 13.08 11. 18 24.26 3.39 4.51 5.64 1997 31.92 13.71 10.86 24.57 3.17 4.22 5.28 1998 39.07 20.02 10.54 30.56 3.42 4.57 5.71 1999 40.54 20.60 10.24 30.84 3. 10 4. 13 5. 16 2000 42.14 21.33 9.95 31.27 2.84 3.78 4.73 2001 43.86 22. 16 9.66 31.83 2.58 3.44 4.31 2002 45.72 23.09 9.39 32.48 2.32 3.09 3.87 2003 45.72 23.09 9.39 32.48 2.32 3,09 3.87 2004 45.72 23.09 9.39 32.48 2.32 3.09 3.87 2005 45.72 23.09 9.39 32.48 2.32 3.09 3.87 2006 45.72 23.09 9.39 32.48 2.32 3.09 3.87 2007 45.72 23.09 9.39 32.48 2.32 3.09 :3. 87 2008 48.44 25.81 9.39 35.20 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2009 48.44 25.81 9.39 35.20 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2010 48.44 25.81 9.39 35.20 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2011 48.44 25.81 9.39 35.20 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2012 48.44 25.81 9.39 35.20 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2018 51.01 28.38 9.39 37.76 2.59 3.45 4.31 2019 51.01 28.38 9.39 37.76 2.59 3.45 4.31 2020 51.01 28.38 9.39 37.76 2.59 3.45 4.31 2021 51.01 28.38 1. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 2035 51.01 28.38 1. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 (l)See Table D-2 (2)See Table D-4 <3)See Table E-6 (4)Sum of' hydro and SL1pp 1 ement a 1 diesel costs. (5)Cannery credit, for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-2 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-2 (?)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-6 ' ' ... -----~ . - TAIILE G-7 ALASKA POWER AUTHORI:rY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I II-B WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION APRIL 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL CANNERY CANNERY CANNERY CASE DIESEL VILLAGE CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/klrJh) (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (C/klolh) (C/klrJh) (c/klolh) (<:/kWh> 1~c 20c 25c (1) (2) (3) (4) (~) (6) <7> ------------------ --------------------------------------------- 1983 18.99 18.99 0.00 18.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 19.02 19.02 0.00 19.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 198~ 19.28 19.28 0.00 19.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 19.87 7.09 1. 32 8.41 5.30 7.07 8.83 1987 20.77 7.35 1. 31 8.66 5.13 6.85 8.56 1988 22.07 10.06 1. 30 11.36 5.07 6.76 8.45 1989 22.86 10.28 1. 28 11.56 4.86 6.48 8.10 1990 23.72 10.52 1.27 11.80 4.64 6. 19 7.74 1991 24.65 10.81 1. 26 12.07 4.43 5.90 7.38 -1992 25.65 11. 14 1. 25 12.39 4.20 5.60 7.00 I 1993 26.73 11. ~2 1. 25 .12.76 3.98 5.30 6.63 1994 27.89 i 1. 98 1. 24 13.22 3.79 5.05 6.32 1995 29.14 12.50 1. 23 13.74 3.59 4.79 5.99 1996 30.48 13.08 20.06 33.14 3.39 4.51 5.64 1997 31.92 13.71 19.45 33.16 3.17 4.22 5.28 1998 39.07 20.02 18.86 38.88 3.42 4.57 5.71 1999 40.54 20.60 18.29 38.89 3. 10 4. 13 5.16 2000 42.14 21.33 17.73 39.06 2.84 3.78 4.73 2001 43.86 22.16 17.19 39.36 2.58 3.44 4.31 2002 45.72 23.09 16.67 39.77 2.32 3.09 3.87 2003 45.72 23.09 16.67 39.77 2.32 3.09 3.87 2004 45.72 23.09 16.67 39.77 2.32 3.09 3.87 2005 45.72 23.09 16.67 39.77 2.32 3.09 3.87 2006 45.72 23.09 16.67 39.77 2.32 3.09 3.87 2007 45.72 23.09 16.67 39.77 2.32 3.09 3.87 2008 48.44 25.81 16.67 42.48 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2009 48.44 25.81 16.67 42.48 2.46 3.28 4.10 2010 48.44 25.81 16.67 42.48 2.46 3.28 4. 10 2011 48,44 25.81 16.67 42.48 2.46 3.28 4.10 2012 48.44 25.81 16.67 42.48 2.46 3.28 4. 10 1 2018 51.01 28.38 16.67 45.05 2.59 3.45 4.31 2019 51.01 28.38 16.67 45.05 2.59 3.45 4.31 2020 51.01 28.38 16.67 45.05 2.59 3.45 4.31 2021 51.01 28.38 1. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 203~ 51.01 28.38 t. 22 29.60 2.59 3.45 4.31 <1>S•• Table-D-2 <2>Su· Table-D-4 <3>Su Tablet E-7 <4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Cannery crctdit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-2 <6)Canne-ry credit for 1986 cost=20c/klolh.See Table F-2 (7)Cannery cre-dit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-7 TABLE G-8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR KING COVE HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE IV WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION YEAR BASE SUPPL. CASE DIESEL (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 18.99 19.02 19.28 19.87 20.77 22.07 22.86 23.72 24.65 25.65 26.73 27.89 29. 14 30.48 31.92 39.07 40,54 42. 14 43.86 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 45.72 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 48.44 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 51.01 <USee Table D-2 (2)See Table D-4 (3)See Table E-8 18.99 19.02 19.28 7.09 7.35 10.06 10.28 10.52 10.81 11. 14 11. 52 11.98 12.50 13.08 13.71 20.02 20.60 21.33 22.16 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 23.09 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 25.81 28.38 28.38 28.38 28.38 28.38 HYDRO. (3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 11. 22 10.87 10.53 10.21 9.89 9.58 9.27 8.98 8.69 8.42 8. 15 7.88 7.63 7.38 7. 14 6.91 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 6.68 APRIL 1984 TOTAL VILLAGE (C/kWh) (4) 18.99 19.02 19.28 18.30 18.22 20.59 20.48 20.41 20.39 20.41 20.50 20.68 20.92 21.23 21.60 27.65 27.98 28.47 29.07 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 32.49 32.49 32.49 32.49 32.49 35.06 35.06 35.06 35.06 35.06 CAtiNERY CREDIT (C/kWh) 15c (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5.13 5.07 4.86 4.64 4.43 4.20 3.98 3.79 3.59 3.39 3. 17 3.42 3. 10 2.84 2.58 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. C5)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=15c/kWh.See Table F-2 (6)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=20c/kWh.See Table F-2 (7)Cannery credit for 1986 cost=25c/kWh.See Table F-2 G-8 CAN~~ER'l' CREDIT (c/kl-Jh) 20c (6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.07 6.85 6.76 6.48 6. 19 5.90 5.60 5.30 5.05 4.79 4.51 4.22 4.57 4. 13 3.78 3.44 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3 09 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.28 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 CANNERY CREDIT ( c /k ~Jh) 2Sc (7) 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.83 8.56 8.45 8. 10 7.74 7.:38 7.00 6.63 6.32 5.99 5.64 5.28 5.71 5. 16 4.73 4.31 3.87 :3.87 :3.87 :;: . 87 3.87 4' 10 4. 10 4. 10 4. 10 4. 10 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31