HomeMy WebLinkAboutFinancial Analysis for Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project 1984Financial Analysis for
OLD HARBOR ·
HYD~OELECTRIC PROJECT
Submitted by
DOWL ENGINEERS
ANCHORAGE, ALASKA
In Association with
TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY
SAN FRANCISCO •. CALIFORNIA
DRYDEN & LARUE
ANCHORAGE, ALASKA
SEPTEMBER 1984
.____ __ ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY __ __,
..
TABlE OF CONTENTS
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ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page
SUMMARY. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • i
I. INTRODUCTION .•...•.•....•.........•.•.•..............•.•. I-1
A. GENERAL. • . • . . . • • • • • • . . . • • • • . . . . • . • • • . . . • . • . • • . . . . . • . I -1
B. DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND.......................... I-1
C. OVERVIEW............................................ I-2
D. REPORT FORMAT....................................... I-3
II. GENERAL CRITERIA......................................... II-1
A. GENERAL............................................. Il-l
B. FINANCIAL CRITERIA.................................. II-1
C. ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY............................ I I-2
D. DIESEL COSTS........................................ II-4
E. HYDROELECTRIC COSTS................................. II-5
F. OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS..................... II-6
G. CANNERY............................................. II-7
III. FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES
A. GENERAL ••..•...•...•...•.•.......•••.....•.••.•..•.. III-1
B. BASE CASE........................................... III-1
C. SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL................................. III 2
D. CANNERY............................................. III-2
E. FINANCIAL PLANS..................................... III-3
1. ALTERNATIVE I-A: 100% REVENUE BONDS........... III-4
2. ALTERNATIVE I-8: 100% REVENUE BONDS WITH
GRADUATED PAYMENTS........................... III-5
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3. ALTERNATIVE II-A: 50% REVENUE BONDS/
50% STATE GRANT ••..•.•....•••.......•.......• I II-5
4. ALTERNATIVE II-B: 40% REVENUE BONDS/
60% STATE GRANT ..•••..•••..••...••••..•.•...• I II-5
5. ALTERNATIVE II-C: 43.1% REVENUE BONDS/
56.9% STATE GRANT ••••.•••..••..••..••.•..•••. IIl-6
6. ALTERNATIVE II I -A: STATE LOAN •••..•••.•••...•• III-6
7. ALTERNATIVE I II -B: STATE LOAN WITH
DEFERRED PAYMENT •...•....•...•••..•........•• II I-6
8. ALTERNATIVE IV: STATE EQUITY FINANCING ••....•. I II-7
F. DISCUSSION OF ANALYSIS .............................. III-7
APPENDIX A: PROJECT DRAWINGS
APPENDIX B: APA ANALYSIS PARAMETERS
APPENDIX C: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS UPDATE
APPENDIX D: DIESEL ANALYSES
APPENDIX E: HYDROELECTRIC ANALYSES
APPENDIX F: CANNERY ANALYSES
APPENDIX G: FINANCIAL SUMMARIES WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION
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SUNitARY
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SUMMARY
This report presents the results of an analysis of various alternative
possible methods of financing the Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project
(Project). A detailed report for this project titled Feasibility Study for
Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project, was presented to the Alaska Power Authority
(APA) by DOWL Engineers, August 1982. This report showed the project to be
economically feas i b 1 e and a recent economic analysis, updated using newer
costs and energy consumption data, has indicated that the project is still
economically viable.
Various methods considered for financing the project include tax-exempt
revenue bonds, state grants, state loans at five percent interest, and a state
equity investment yielding a five percent annual return. The alternatives are
addressed in detail in Section III of this report. The average cost of energy
to consumers was calculated on an annual basis for each alternative.
The cost of power to the users will vary depending on the type of financ-
ing chosen, which could include various uses of state grants, loans, or equity
financing. The actual cost of power may be slightly greater or less than the
costs presented in this report. Variables that may influence the cost of
power include a conservative, and therefore potentially high, cost estimate:
and potentially low initial energy sales.
No attempt will be made here to select the best method of financing the
Project, as this is a policy decision and as such is beyond the scope of this
report. The intent of this report is to present data and the results of the
various analyses so that the information is available for the policy and
decision making processes.
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PROJECT DESCRIPTION
The recommended project would have an installed capacity of 340 kW and
would be located on Midway Creek, a small stream about four miles from the
town of Old Harbor on the southeast coast of Kodiak island. The project would
be a run-of-the-river type consisting of a low weir, about 5 feet high, which
would divert the stream into a 24-inch penstock extending 2,200 feet to a
small powerhouse 243 feet lower in elevation where the 340 kW turbine gener-
ator would be located. The diverted flows are then returned to Midway
Creek. No significant environmental impact, including damage to fisheries, is
expected. The town of Old Harbor currently relies totally on diesel
generation to meet electrical needs. This hydroelectric project w"ould be
capable of supplying approximately 94 percent of the electrical needs of Old
Harbor in 1986 and 82 percent in 2005. Some supplemental diesel generation
would, however, still be necessary.
STUDY METHODOLOGY
The general methodology of the study consisted of first establishing the
financial cost of the "base-case" alternative for Old Harbor and then
comparing this cost to the cost of the hydroelectric project using eight
specified financial alternatives. The purpose of this comparison of the base
case to the financial alternatives was to demonstrate how each of the
financial alternative plans studied compared with the actual avoided financial
cost of the base case.
STUDY ASSUMPTIONS
The planning period for the project begins with January 1986 and extends
20 years, including 1986 and 2005. The hydroelectric project was assumed to
be on-1 ine by January 1986 and the overall analysis extends 50 years beyond
this time (1983-2035) .. The years 1983 through 1985 were included in the
analysis for information only. The analysis was conducted assuming a general
inflation rate of 6.5 percent for all costs for the 20-year planning period
and a zero inflation rate thereafter. Since most economists predict a long-
term additional escalation in the cost of fuel above the general inflation
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rate, the analysis was also conducted both with and without an additional fuel
escalation of 3.0 percent applied over the period 1989-2005.
The proposed hydroelectric project will sometimes produce more power than
Old Harbor can use and the financial impact on the unit energy cost to Old
Harbor of selling this excess energy to some other use, such as space heating,
was also analyzed at several alternative selling prices.
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES
As specified by the APA, four basic alternative methods of financing the
project were considered. These were (1) 10. percent tax-exempt revenue bonds
alone, (2) state grants in conjunction with 10 percent tax-exempt revenue
bonds, (3) direct state financing at 5 percent interest and (4) state equity
financing with a 5 percent annual return. The repayment period of revenue
bonds and state loans would be 35 years. Two different repayment schedules
were considered for the tax-exempt revenue bonds alone, three different
combinations of the state grants in conjunct ion with the tax-exempt revenue
bonds were considered, and two different payback schemes for the direct state
financing were considered. This resulted in a total of eight different
alternative plans, each of which was analyzed both with three percent real
fuel escalation and without real fuel escalation. The results of the analysis
are shown in the summary Tables S-1 (with fuel escalation) and S-2 (without
fuel escalation). A summary description of the plans is presented below.
1. Alternative I-A. Tax-exempt Revenue Bonds with a levelized repay-
ment schedule.
2. Alternative I-B. Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds with a graduated repay-
ment schedule. This plan allows initial annual payments that result
in an overall average unit energy cost equa 1 to the base case for
the, first year of hydro generation and then calls for increases in
annual payments at a maximum rate of 9.5 percent until a levelized
payment can be made by fully amortizing the outstanding principal
over the remainder of the 35-year financing period without exceeding
the maximum rate of increase. Lower rates of maximum annual
i i i
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3.
4.
5.
increase were considered and found to be infeasible.
Alternative II-A. 50 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and 50 per-
cent state grant.
Alternative II-8. 40 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and 60 per-
cent state grant.
Alternative II-C. 43.1 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and
56.9 percent state grant. For this plan the tax-exempt revenue bond
portion was established by solving for the amount of debt service
that would yield an average unit cost of energy equal to the base-
case unit cost of energy in 1986.
6. Alternative III-A -State loan for 35 years at five percent.
7. Alternative III-B -State loan at five percent with principal and
interest payments deferred for 10 years. Payments for the first
10 years would be O&M only, and the principal and deferred interest
of the loan would be fully amortized over the remaining 25 years of
the 35-year financing period.
8. Alternative IV -State equity financing with return to the state on
investment equal to five percent of capital cost. The operation and
maintenance expenses of the hydroelectric project would be paid from
the return to the state.
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
Summary results of the financial analyses in terms of the unit cost of
energy in cents per kilowatt hour are presented in Table S-1 (three percent
real fuel escalation) and Table S-2 (no real fuel escalation). Comparison of
the two base-case costs indicate the marked effect of fuel escalation on the
cost of the avoided diesel system. Figure S-1 shows a general comparison of
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the cost of two hydro financial alternatives with the base case. More details
are presented in the body of the report.
The most realistic basis for evaluation of the various alternatives
studied to finance the Scammon Bay Hydroelectric Project is a comparison of
the energy costs of the base case with the total costs system including the
hydroelectric project, using the alternative financial plans studied. The use
of excess hydroelectric power for space heating was also considered. A range
of sales prices were considered to test the sensitivity to this sale.
For use in this comparative analysis, developing the cost of the base
case was given careful attention. Through cooperative efforts of local Alaska
consultants and APA personnel, representative existing diesel electricity
costs were estimated for the first year of analysis, 1986, and projected
through the 50 year life of the hydroelectric project extending from 1986
through 2035. Growth and price escalation were limited to the 20 year period
of 1986 through 2005, after which both factors were assumed to be zero until
the end of the period of study in 2035.
If the summary Table S-1 of 24 possible combinations (i.e. eight basic
a 1 tern at i ves with three space alternatives for each) is condensed to some of
the most significant findings for several selected financial alternatives, the
following table can be derived. Also, Figure S-1 presents the same data
graphically for the base case, and hydro alternatives 1-A and III-A. As can
be noted, alternatives II-A and III-A are very similar and II-A was therefore
not included.
With 50% Avoided Cost S~ace Heating Credit
III-A: 100% State Equity
I-A: 100% Tax I I-A: 50-50 State Loan with 5%
Base Case Exemp., Level Tax Ex./Grant @ 5% Int., Level Return
Year (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh)
1986 31 82 44 45 34
1990 44 79 45 46 35
1995 68 78 48 49 39
2005 143 82 59 60 51
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made:
In analyzing these results, the following general observations can be
1. With 100 percent tax-exempt financing and levelized payments (I-A)
it would take about 13 years before local interests would be able to
take advantage of savings created by the hydro project.
2. The plan reflecting a 50/50 tax-exempt financing/state grant (II-A),
and the plan with a 100 percent state loan at 5 percent interest and
levelized payments (III-A) would both produce essentially the same
cost of power. These plans would result in savings in electricity
costs in the sixth year and increase significantly over 15 years
because of the inflation-proofing provided by hydro.
3. Other apparent observations from an analysis of the summary
Table S-1 indicate:
a. Financial alternatives II-A, II-8, II-C, III-A and IV have very
similar results.
b. The graduated payment approach applied to the 100 percent tax-
exempt financing (I-B) would provide only minor increases in
early years followed by substantial savings after 5 years.
c. There is very little difference between the 40/60 tax-
exempt/State grant financing (II-B), and the financial plan
that derives the 43/57 percent combination that will just equal
the base case diesel costs (II-C).
d. The five percent State equity plan (IV) increases the savings a
small percentage over the two plans discussed in c. above.
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e. The 10-year deferral on the State loan {III-B) produces savings
of 68 percent when compared to the base case in 1986, but
increases in the 11th year to about 104 percent of the starting
point, which seems impractical.
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TABLE S-1
SlM4ARY Of ALL FINANCIAL PLANs!/
(With Real Fuel Escalation)
Combinations of Tax-Exempt
100% Tax-Exempt Bonds~/ Bonds and State Grants 21 State Loans 21
1-A 1-B II-A 11-B 11-C Ill-A 111-B
Base Level Graduated 50/50~1 40!60£1 43/57?./ Level Deferred
Hydro CaseY Payments~/ PaymentsY PaymentsY Payments~/
Year Year <f/KWh) (f/KWh) <f!KWh) <f!KWh) <f!KWh) <ffKWh) <fiKWh) (f/KWh)
1986 31.35 85.12 31 .35 47.59 40.08 31.35 48.75 10.06
5 1990 44.28 82.75 46.16 48.75 41.95 34.04 49.80 14.75
10 1995 67.96 83.17 41.03 53.12 47 .II 40.11 54.04 23.06
20 2005 143.18 90.06 144.55 66.58 61.88 56.42 67.30 88.90
50 2035 161.08 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01
1/ See Table D-1. Cost of continued existing diesel system, with real fuel escalation.
Costs of financial
3/ See Table E-1.
4/ See Table E-2.
5/ See Table E-3.
6/ See Table E-4.
71 See Table E-5.
8/ See Table E-6.
9/ See Table E-7.
10/ See Table E-8.
11/ See Table F-1.
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plans are the sum of supplemental diesel and hydroelectric costs.
Potential Price
State E9uit~10 /!/ Reduction from Space Heatingl1/!/
IV 25% 50% 100%
Avoided Avoided AYoided
Cost Cost Cost
<f!KWh) <f!KWh) (f/KWh) <f!KWh)
37.05 1.73 3.47 5.20
38.88 1.99 3.97 5.96
43.93 2.53 s.os 7.58
58.22 3.86 7.71 11 .57
76.12 3.86 7.71 l1 .57
TABLE S-2
Sllf44ARY Of ALL F I NANC I AL PLANs.!/
(Without Real Fuel Escalation)
Combinations of Tax-Exempt
100% Tax-Exem~t Bonds~/ Bonds and State Grants 21 State Loans 2/
1-A 1-B II-A 11-8 11-C lil-A 111-B
Base Level Graduated 50/50~1 40/60~1 43/57!./ Level Deferred
Hydro Case..!/ .Payments~/ Payments-11 Payments~/ Payments~/
Year Year <fiKWh l <f!K\IIh l <fiKWh l (f/KWh) (f/KWh l <f/KWh) (f/K\IIh) <fiKWh l
1986 31 .35 85.12 31.35 47.59 40.08 31.35 48.75 10.06
5 1990 42.96 82.65 46.06 48.65 41.85 33.94 49.70 14.65
10 1995 61.17 82.43 10.29 52.38 46.37 39.37 53.30 22.32
20 2005 104.31 83.74 138.23 60.26 55.57 50.10 60.99 82.58
50 2035 125.22 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69
1 See Table D-2. Cost of continued existing diesel system, without real fuel escalation.
21 Costs of financial plans are the sum of supplemental diesel and hydroelectric costs.
3/ See Table G-1.
4/ See Table G-2.
~I See Table G-3.
6/ See Table G-4.
71 See Table G-5.
8/ See Table G-6.
9/ See Table G-7.
10/ See Table G-8.
11/ See Table F-2.
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Potential Price
State Eguitx!2 1~1 Reduction from Space Heatingl1/~/
IV 25% 50% 100%
Avoided Avoided Avoided
Cost Cost Cost
<fiKWh l <fiKWh) <fiKWh l <fiKWhl
37.05 1.73 3.47 5.20
38.79 1.88 3.76 5.63
43.19 2.08 4.16 6.24
57.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
69.80 2.40 4.81 7.21
,...
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1. Costs include general inflation and real fuel escalation.
2. Hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental diesel.
3. Hydro alternatives include adjustment for energy sold to cannery.
4. Hydro Alternative I-A is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds, 35 years @ 10%.
5. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years@ 5%.
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
W/ rUEL ESCALATION,W/ SPACE HEATING
HEATING CREDIT e 50% AVOIDED COST
FIGURE
S-I
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SECTION I
INTRODUCTION
A. GENERAL
SECTION I
INTRODUCTION
The Alaska Power Authority (APA) is considering a hydroelectric
development at the village of Old Harbor. Previous studies have shown the
project to be economically feasible and the purpose of this report is to
present alternative methods of financing the project.
B. DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND
Old Harbor is a small village located on the southeast coast of Kodiak
Island, 50 miles southwest of the City of Kodiak. The proposed
hydroelectric project site is on Midway Creek about four miles northest of
town. The project would include a low diversion weir, a 24 inch diameter
and 2,200 feet long penstock, and a 340 kW powerhouse which would produce
1.31 GWh of electrical energy in an average year. The total construction
cost for the project at 1985 price levels would be approximately
$3,990,000. The project was studied by DOWL Engineers in 1981 and 1982 and
was found to be environmentally feasible with only minor environmental
effects. The results of the study were presented in a report titled
Feasibility Study for Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project, OOWL Engineers,
August 1982. The project drawings from the feasibility report are
presented as Appendix A.
The economic analysis for the project was updated in June 1984, using
current cost and energy consumption data. A copy of this economic analysis
is included as Appendix B.
Using the standard APA economic criteria with an inflation-free dis-
count rate of 3.~ percent, a benefit/cost ratio of 1.3 was derived. This
analysis included the space heating benefits expressed in terms of savings
in diesel heating fuel as a benefit to the hydro project. These benefits
were assumed to be the avoided cost of the fuel oil, assuming that 28.3 kWh
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of electricity used for space heating is equivalent to burning one gallon
of fuel oil.
C. OVERVIEW
The main objective of an economic analysis is to determine the inher-
ent economic viability; that is, how do the economic benefits of the proj-
ect compare to the economic costs. This comparison is independent of the
method of financing, taxes, and any other costs that may be peculiar to the
enterprise owning the project. As mentioned above, the economic analyses
have indicated that this project is viable.
The objective of a financial analysis, which is the subject of this
report, is to determine how the costs associated with a project will be
paid, and the cash flows that would result from various alternative courses
of action. Interest rates, amortization payment periods, inflation, and
taxes are factors that must be considered by a financial analysis that are
often not considered in an economic analysis. The financial analyses for
this project were conducted according to the general criteria set forth by
the APA, 11 Analysis Parameters for the 1984 Fiscal Year.11 A copy of these
criteria is included as Appendix B. The alternative financial plans
studied are described in Section III of this report. In addition to the
alternative financial analyses, a financial analysis for the base case has
also been included for comparison purposes. The base case is an estimate
of the configuration and costs that would occur in Old Harbor if the exist-
ing diesel generator system continues and is expanded as necessary to meet
the projected demand over the study period.
The costs associated with the proposed project include both hydroelec-
tric costs and supplemental diesel costs. Even with the hydroelectric
project, it is necessary to maintain sufficient diesel capacity at Old
Harbor to meet maximum demands because the hydroelectric project may not
meet the full Old. Harbor demands. The electrical demand satisfied by the
system would include the village electrical demand, and the use of excess
electricity for space heating. Benefits possible from waste heat recovery
were not included. This analysis describes the forecasted unit cost of
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power for the base case and the hydroelectric project for the various
financial alternatives studied.
In allocating excess energy, it was assumed that the village elec-
trical needs would be met first, and, if excess hydroelectric energy
remained and sufficient space heating demand existed, then the excess elec-
tricity would be sold for space heating use. The space heating energy
demand that could be satisfied by the hydroelectric project was included as
supplemental revenues from the sale of this power at alternative sales
prices. This supplemental revenue was then be applied to decrease the cost
of power for Old Harbor.
D. REPORT FORMAT
The report is presented with a summary, three chapters of text with
figures and selected tables, and seven appendices. An effort has been made
to make the report more readable by including only key tables with the
report text and placing the majority of the tables for the diesel analyses,
hydroelectric analyses, and space heating analyses in the respective
appendices.
Two summary tables for each alternative financial plan studied (one
for with fuel escalation and one for without fuel escalation) were prepared
and the eight with fuel escalation tables (considered to represent the most
realistic case) were included with Section III. The eight without fuel
escalation summaries were placed in Appendix G.
Appendix A, 11 Project Drawings" Appendix B, "APA Analysis Parameters".
and Appendix C, "Economic Analysis Update 11
, were included to provide
background material and criteria.
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SECTION II
GENERAL CRITERIA -
through the end of 1988. These prices were then escalated at an annual
rate of 9.5 percent for the with real fuel escalation case from January
1989 to the end of the planning period in order to reflect a real fuel cost
escalation of three percent annually. For the without real fuel escalation
case the inflat i on rate used was 6.5 percent as for all other costs. All
costs for both the with and without real fuel escalation cases were then
assumed to rema i n constant after the last cost escalation occurs in 2005,
the last year of the planning period. The costs were then held constant at
the 2005 value for the remainder of the period of economic evaluation
through 2035.
The interest rate for bond sales and sinking funds was assumed to be
10 percent, representing an average for c urrent market rates. The i nterest
rate for state loans was assumed to be f i ve percent.
The economic life of the hydroelectr i c project facilities was assumed
to be 50 years. The economic project life for diesel eng i nes was assumed
to be from 10 to 20 years, depending on the size of the machines.
All costs, i ncluding operation, maintenance costs and capital costs
were assigned to the year in which they would occur. Capital costs were
assumed to be equa l to the sum of the construction costs and interest
during construct i on, financing charges, and reserve funds, as applicable.
The first debt service payment was shown i n the year following the capital
cost. Replacement costs were handled by the use of a sink i ng fund and were
assumed to occur over the project study period.
C. ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY
The energy dema nd and supp l y for the vil l age of Old Ha r bor were deter-
mined from AVEC re c ords. This determination was made by the cons ul tants in
cooperation with APA. The historical generation records for Januar
through December 1983 were used as a base per i od to determine the pat ern
of monthly demands as percentages of annual demand. The annual energy
demands are shown on Table II-1. The village demands were escalated at 2.5
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;
percent annually over the 20 year planning period and then assumed to
remain level.
The annual supply and distribution of energy over the study period to
meet these demands is also shown on Table II-1, indicating the
hydroelectric and diesel requirements of the village system and the amount
of excess hydroelectric energy available for space heating. Th i s data is
also presented graphically on a monthly bas i s in F i gure II-1 for 1986, the
first year of hydroelectric generation and for 2005, the last year of the
20-year planning period. These figures illustrate that as the village
demand increases over time, 1 ess e x cess energy is avail ab 1 e for space
heating and that the need for supplemental d i esel increases
D. DIESEL COSTS
The costs of d i esel generation were taken from the AVEC recor d s and
were estimated in c ooperation with APA. The costs of diese l generation
were assumed to i nclude debt service, various operating costs, and fuel
oi 1.
The cost of the e x isting system was based on AVEC records and was
assumed to be the sum of d eprec i ation and interest on the e x isting debt.
Interest was assumed as two percent annua l ly on the outstanding principal
of a 35 year loan. The outstanding princ ipal for 1984 was $280,707.
Depreciation was assumed as si x perc ent of the original plant cost of
$299,587 annually. This information was furn i shed in a l etter from APA to
DOWL dated May 15, 1984. The cost of diesel replacements was assumed to be
$500/kW for equipment only replacements on $1000/kW for plant replacement
at 1984 price levels. Additions and repla c ements were assumed to be
financed by tax -e x emp t revenue bon d s bear i ng an i nterest rate of 10
percent. The life of these bonds was assumed as 10 y ears for installations
l ess than 300 kW, 15 years for 300 kW i nstallations, and 20 y ears for
i nstallations greater than 300 kW.
The e x isting s y stem at Old Harbor c onsists of two 155 kW units,
yielding a firm capacity of 155 kW. An additional 300 kW would be added to
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the system in 1988, increasing the firm capacity to 310 kW. The 155 kW
units would be replaced every 10 years and the 300 kW unit would be -
replaced every 15 years. The entire plant would be replaced in 2032. This
data was based on a letter from APA to DOWL dated May 15, 1984, and on the
? ~Old Harbor Feasibility Report.
No added life was assumed for the diesel engines for the hydroelectric
case. The machines would operate for significantly less time under the
with hydro case and should have longer lives; however, because of the
uncertainty associated with the availability of parts and maintenance, this
credit was not considered.
The variable operating cost was assumed to be 8.5 cents/kWh for
1984. This is the AVEC system average variable operating cost and includes
the costs of lubrication oil, operation, miscellaneous consumables,
ordinary maintenance and extraordinary maintenance.
The cost of oil was supplied by APA and was $1.52/gallon for 1984 .
The rate of consumption was assumed as 9 .6 kWh of generated electricity per
ga ll on of fu e l oil. The cost of fuel oil was escalated at 6.5 percent
annually through 1988 and then at 9. 5 percent through 2005 for the with
fuel escalation case and at 6.5 percent for the without fuel escalation
case.
E. HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
The total construction cost of the hydroelectric project was supplied
by APA in a letter to DOWL dated May 15, 1984. The total construction cost
includes construction, engineering, construction management, and legal and
administrative costs. The construction cost is summarized on Table II-2.
The total project cost at January 1985 price leve l s i s $3,990,000.
Two replacement costs were considered for the hydroelectric project:
the cost of replacing the turbine runner after 25 years of operation, and
the cost of replacing the transm i ssion line that wou l d tie the plant to the
village distribution system every 30 years. The 30-year economic life of
II -4
SF:IEB:AD1:3-II
I
the transmission lines is based on observation of existing lines. The cost
of replacing the runner was estimated as $55,000 at January 1983 price --
levels, and the cost of replacing the lines was estimated as $905,000 at
January 1985 price levels.
F. OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS
The operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for the existing diesel
system was assumed a s 8 .5 cents/kWh for 1984. The value represents the
average O&M cost for the entire AVEC system and includes the costs of
lubrication oil, operation, miscellaneous consumables, ordinary plant
maintenance, and extraordinary plant maintenance.
The operation of the hydroelectric facilities would be conducted by
the same personnel as the diesel p l ant. An additional $5,000 per year was
allowed for extra expenses attributable to the hydroelectric project.
The O&M costs for both the base case and hydroe 1 ectri c project case
were allowed to inflate at 6.5 percent per year over the planning period of
1986 through 2005.
G. SPACE HEATING
The proposed hydroelectric project will produce significantly more
electrical energy than can be used in the village. This energy could be
sold for use by electrical space heaters and the revenue could be used to
offset the cost of energy to the village. This space heating cost
reduction was considered for a range of prices and for both the cases of
with real fuel escalation and without real fuel escalation.
II-5
SF:IEB:AD1:3-II
I \
--------------------------------------------
YEAR
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2035
TABLE 11-1
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTR I ~; PROJECT
ANNUAL ENERGY SUPPLY AND DE~AND
JUNE 1984
TOTAL
VILLAGE
ELECTRICAL
DEMAND
<MWh )
( 1)
584. 85"
599. 47 •
614.46
629.82
645.56
661.70
678.24
695.20
712.58
730.40
748.65
767.37
786.56
806.22
826.37
847.03
868.21
889.92
912.16
934.97
958.34
982.30
1006.86
1006.86
TOTAL
HYDRO
SUPPLY
<MWh >
(2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
1310.00
VILLAGE
ELECTRICAL
DEMAND
MET BY
HYDRO
<MWh)
(3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
592.72
605.67
618. 16
630.9 6
643.69
655.68
667.3 2
678.20
689.35
700.79
712.51
724.52
7 36.83
749.45
762.39
775.65
789.24
803.17
816.99
829.49
829.49
VILLAGE
ELECTRICAL
DE~AND
MET BY
DIESEL
<Miolh)
(4)
584.85
599.47
614.46
37. 10
39.90
43.54
47.28
51.51
56.90
63.08
70.46
78.02
85.77
9 3 .71
101.86
110.20
118.76
127.5 3
136.51
145.7 3
155. 17
165.3 1
177.37
1 7 7.37
HYDRO
SUPPLY
AVAILABLE
FOR SPACE
HEATING
<MWh)
(5)
0.00
0.00
0.00
717.28
704.33
691.84
679.04
666.31
654.32
642.68
6 3 1.80
620.65
609.2 1
597.49
585.4 8
573.17
560.55
547.61
534.3 5
520.76
506.83
493.01
480.51
480.51
.I
C1 )Energ y consumption for 1983=584.848 MWh from APA letter dated Ma y 15,1984./
Escalated at 2.5% annually through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL l
dated May 15,1984
(2 )Hy dro energ y production from August 1982 Old Harbor Feasibilit y Report.
(3 )Annual v illage electrical demand met b y h y dro.
C4 )Annual v illage electrical demand met by supplemental die s el
C5 )Ex cess h y dro generation available for use for space heating.
Item
TABLE II-2
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY
{1985 PRICE LEVELS)
Construction Cost (w/o Transmission)
Contingencies (20 %)
Subtotal
Transmission Line
CONTRACT COST
Engineering Costs
Right of Way and Geology
Design
Construction Management
Owners Legal and Administration
CONSTRUCTION COST
Amount
$ 2,107,000
421,000
$ 2,528,000
905,000
$ 3,433,000
64,000
222,000
158,000
133,000
$ 3,990,000
Cawvr
Co sf
~
~---·
~
1. Village demand includes residential, commercial, and school
demands for 1986.
2. Supplemental diesel is portion of village demand in excess of
availalbe hydro generation.
3. Values shown are for 1986.
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY rOR 1986
FIGURE
II-1
~~~~--~~~~~~--~-L-J--~~~
J'AN FEB 1tAR APR ltW J'lli JtL FIUGI 8EP OCT NOV DEC
MONTH
ALASKA POHER AUTHORITY FIGURE OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT II-2 ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR 2005
1. Village demand includes residential. commercial. and school
demands for 2005.
2. Supplemental diesel is portion of village demand in excess of
available hydro generation.
3. Values shown are for 2005.
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY tOR 2095
.
~ ~-~-"~•"'-·~-··-~--· """'"''_.......,. ___ "'"•'·"·---~~"-·-·""'"'-~~·"""'•""
FIGURE
II-2
SF:IEB:A01:3-C
SECTION III
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES ·
A. GENERAL
SECTION II I
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES
The financial alternatives analyzed for the the Old Harbor Hydroelec-
tric Project include revenue bonds, state loans, state equity financing,
and combinations of revenue bonds and state grants. These alternatives
apply only to the financing of the hydroelectric facilities and not to the
supplemental diesel. The financing of the supplemental diesel and the base
case costs was considered separately, considering both the current cost of
power and the APA recommended analysis parameters for 1984. In addition to
the various schemes for financing the hydroelectric project, a base case
alternative was considered to provide a comparison to the existing situ-
ation. The base case, supplemental diesel, and hydroelectric financial
alternatives and analysis results are presented below.
B. BASE CASE
The base case analysis assumes that the hydroelectric project would not
be built and that the existing diesel system, expanded for future demand as
necessary, would continue to serve as the sole source of electrical
energy. The existing system consists of two 155 kW diesel generators, pro-
viding a current firm capacity of 155 kW (firm capacity is the system
capacity with the largest unit not operable). This capacity was assumed to
be increased by the addition of one 300 kW diesel generator in 1988. The
schedule of investments for the diesel system is presented as Table III-11.
The current debt service on the existing diesel system at Old Harbor is
t he sum of two percent annual interest and s ix per cent annua l depr eci a-
tion. The existing capacity was assumed to be replaced every ten years
with these future replacements financed at an interest rate of 10 percent
for 10 years. The 300 kW addition would be replaced every 15 y ears and
would be financed at 10 percent for 15 years. he low rate assumed for the
cost of existing debt service was based on data supplied by APA.
III-1
SF: IEB:AD1:3-III
The base case analysis is presented in Tables D-1 and D-2 of Appendix D
for the cases of with and without real fuel escalation respectively and is
presented in summary form on Tables III-1 through III-8. The cost for 1986
is 31.35¢/KWh for either the with or without fuel escalation case and
increases to 143.18¢/KWh for the with real fuel escalation by the end of
the planning period in 2005. The corresponding unit value for 2005 without
fuel escalation is 107.31¢/KWh.
C. SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL
The supplemental diesel costs were assumed to be the same as the base
case diesel costs except that the energy demand and associated variable
fuel oil and maintenance costs would apply only to the portion of village
energy demand not met by the hydroelectric project. These diesel costs
were discussed in Section II of this report.
The detailed supplemental diesel analysis, which is the same to all
financial plans, is presented in Appendix D as Tables D-3 and D-4 for the
cases of with and without fuel escalation, respectively. The summarized
cost is then presented in Tables III-1 through III-8 for each of the indi-
vidual financial alternatives studied. The unit cost of supplemental
diesel for 1986, averaged over the annual village demand and assuming real
fuel escalation, would be 5.37¢/kWh; this cost escalates to 38.40¢/kWh by
2005. If the effects of fuel escalation are neglected, the cost of power
for 1986 would be 5.37¢/kWh, escalating to 32.09¢/kWh by 2005. The cost of
supplemental diesel is the component of the total cost not included in the
hydroelectric financing.
D. SPACE HEATING
At some times of the year, the proposed hydroelectric project would
produce electrical demand. This electricity could be used for space heat-·
ing or could be sold to any other use that might exit. For purposes of
this analysis, the value of this electricity was assumed to be a percentage
of the avoided cost of fuel oil that it could replace. This analysis is
presented as Tables F-1 and F-2 in Appendix F for the cases of with and
III-2
SF:IEB:AD1:3-III
without fuel escalation~ respectively. The potential savings is the indi-
cated percentage of the avoided cost of fuel distributed over the entire
village demand. The existence of heating demand and the cost of distribut-
ing and metering this power were not considered; this data is presented to
indicate a very conservative, low value for this power if a use for the
power can be estab 1 i shed. The potentia 1 savings at 50 percent of the
avoided cost of fuel oil would be 3.47¢/kWh in 1986 and would escalate to
7.71¢/kWh by 2005 for the with fuel escalation case and 4.81¢/kWh for the
without fuel escalation case.
E. FINANCIAL PLANS
Using the criteria and assumptions previously presented, alternative
financial plans were analyzed. A description and results of the analysis
for each alternative studied are presented below.
Camp 1 ete ana lyses are presented in this report for each alternative
with and without real fuel escalation. In addition, the results of each of
these analyses may be modified for the inclusion of excess energy sales to
space heating at selling prices of 25%, 50%, and 75% of avoided cost. A
total of six separate results for each of the eight financial alternatives
studied then results.
To simplify the following discussion of results, the with real fuel
escalation and without space heating conditions are used for discussion
examples since this combination is considered to be the most probable
future scenario. This is because most economists foresee long term real
fuel escalation occurring in excess of general inflation. Nevertheless,
data is presented in the various tables for the without real fuel escala-
tion case and the potential space heating credit if results for these
alternatives are desired.
Financial summaries for each of the alternatives studied are included
at the end of this section as Table III-1 through III-8 (with real fuel
escalation) and in Appendix G as Tables G-1 through G-9 (without real fuel
escalation). All alternatives are summarized in Table III-9 (with real
I II-3
SF:IEB:AD1:3-III
fuel escalation) and Table III-10 {without real fuel escalation). Both
Table III-9 and Table Ill-10 also include potential space heating savings.
1. ALTERNATIVE I-A: 100% REVENUE BONDS
Under this alternative, the entire hydroelectric cost would be paid
from the sa 1 e of tax-exempt revenue bonds bearing an interest rate of
10 percent for 35 years. The total bond sale would include the direct
construction costs, an allowance of 10 percent for interest during con-
struction, an allowance of 3.75 percent for financing fees, and a reserve
fund equal to 110 percent of one year's debt service. The resulting total
. bond size would be $5,122,900. Table 111-1 shows the total annual unit
cost of this alternative, including both supplemental diesel and hydro-
electric costs. As shown in Table 111-1, the unit energy cost of Alterna-
tive I-A for 1986 would be 85.12¢/kWh and would escalate to 90.06¢/kWh by
the year 2005. Space heating credits at 50% avoided cost would decrease
these prices to 81.65¢/kWh and 82.35¢/kWh respectively. The cost of power
for Alternative I-A would be greater than the cost of Base Case power until
1998.
2. ALTERNATIVE I-8: 100% REVENUE BONDS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS
Under this alternative, the project would be funded 100% by revenue
bonds, as for Alternative I-A; however, the debt service payments would be
made on a graduated basis. The debt service for 1986 would be reduced to a
level that would make the unit cost of energy for that year the same for
the base case and the hydroelectric plus supplemental diesel case. The
debt service would then be increased at a maximum rate of 9.5 percent (the
same rate of increase of fuel with inflation and escalation}, until a uni-
form payment cou 1 d be made for the remainder of the 35 years without
exceeding the 9.5 percent increase. This alternative is shown on
Table III-2. The total cost of energy for 1986 would be 31.35¢/kWh (equal
to the base case cost) with or without fuel escalation, but consideration
of the space heating credit at 50% avoided cost would decrease this figure
by 3.47¢/kWh to 27.88¢/kWh.
II I-4
SF:IEB:AD1:3-III
3. ALTERNATIVE II-A: 50% REVENUE BONDS/50% STATE GRANT
This alternative is similar to Alternative I-A, but only 50 percent of
the direct construction cost would be borne by the power users. The
results of the analyses of this Alternative are presented as Table III-3.
The remaining 50 percent of the project cost would be paid by State assis-
tance. The cost of power for this alternative in 1986 would be 47.59¢/kWh
or 44.12¢/kWh with the space heating credit at 50% of avoided cost. The
cost would increase to 66.58¢/kWh or 58.87¢/kWh with the space heating
credit at 50% of avoided cost by 2005.
4. ALTERNATIVE II-8: 40% REVENUE BONOS/60% STATE GRANT
The project would be financed using tax-exempt revenue bonds for
40 percent of the construct ion cost and a state grant for the remaining
60 percent. The results of this analysis are shown in Tables III-4. The
1986 cost of power for this alternative would be 40.08¢/kWh or 36.61¢/kWh
with space heating credits at 50% avoided cost, increasing in 2005 to
61.88¢/kWh or 54.17¢/kWh space heating credits at 50 percent avoided cost.
5. ALTERNATIVE II-C: 36.4% REVENUE BONOS/63.6% STATE GRANT
The project would be financed using a combination of tax-exempt revenue
bonds and a state grant. The bond sale would be sized in such a manner
that the unit cost of power in 1986 would be the same for the base case and
the hydroelectric plus supplemental diesel case, assuming fuel escala-
tion. The remainder of the capita 1 cost (not inc 1 uded in the bond sa 1 e)
would be paid by a state grant. The results of this analysis are shown in
Table III-5. The unit cost of power for 1986 would be 31.35¢/kWh increas-
ing to 56.42¢/kWh in 2005.
6. ALTERNATIVE III-A: STATE LOAN
Under this alternative, the project would be financed by a state loan
bearing an interest rate of five percent for 35 years. Interest during
construction and a reserve fund would not be considered for this alterna-
I II-5
SF:IEB:AD1:3-III
tive. The results of this analysis are shown on Table III-6. The 1986
cost of power for this alternative would be 48.75¢/kWh, increasing to
67.30¢/kWh in 2005.
7. ALTERNATIVE III-B: STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT
The project would be financed by a state loan at an interest rate of
five percent as above; however, principal and interest payments would be
deferred on the debt for 10 years, follows by 25 years of fully amortized
debt service. This alternative is shown in Table III-7. The 1986 unit
cost of power for this alternative would be 10.06¢/KWh increasing to
. 23.06¢/KWh in 1995 and more than tripling to 80.89¢/kWh in the following
year, 1996, when the 10-year deferral period ends.
8. ALTERNATIVE IV: STATE EQUITY FINANCING
The state would pay the entire capital cost of the project and would
receive an annual payment equal to five percent of the capital cost. The
costs of operation, maintenance, and replacement would be paid from this
five percent payment and the remainder of the five percent would be the
return on investment to the state. The cash flow for this situation is
shown in Table III-8. The 1986 unit cost of energy, including fuel escala-
tion, would be 37.05¢/kWh increasing in 2005 to 58.27¢/kWh.
III-6
SF:IEB:A01:3-III
TABLE II I-1
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-A
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984 ---
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) < c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 79.74 85.12 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 77.88 83.33 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 76.06 86.00 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 74.29 84.32 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 10.19 72.56 82.75 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 70.88 81.33 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 69.25 86.54 2. 19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 67.66 85.28 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 66.11 84.16 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 64.60 83.17 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 63.14 82.33 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 61.71 81.65 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 60.32 80.31 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 58.98 78.73 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 20.97 57.66 78.63 3.16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 56.39 78.74 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116.26 32.71 55.15 87.87 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 53.95 88.22 3.56 7. 13 10.69
2004 133.38 36.10 52.79 88.89 3.70 7.41 11.11
2005 143. 18 38.40 51.65 90.06 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143.16 38.39 51.65 90.04 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143.14 38.37 51.65 90.02 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143. 12 38.35 51.65 90.00 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143. 10 38.33 51.65 89.98 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 51.65 89.96 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143.06 38.29 51.65 89.94 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40.10 51.65 91.75 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146.18 41.40 51.65 93.06 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146. 18 41.40 25.54 66.94 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146.18 41.40 25.54 66.94 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
<l>See Table D-1
<2>See Table D-3
<3>See Table E-1
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
<5>Potent i al space h~tating credit at 25% a~)O i ded cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE III-2
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-B
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984 ··-·-
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) < c /kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) <5> (6) (7) --------------------------------------------- ---------
---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 28.25 33.70 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 30.67 40.61 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 33.24 43.27 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 10.19 35.97 46.16 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 38.87 49.32 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 41.96 59.25 2. 19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 45.25 62.87 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 48.74 66.79 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 52.47 71.03 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 56.43 75.63 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 60.65 80.59 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 65. 15 85.14 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 69.95 89.70 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 . 20. 97 75.06 96.02 3. 16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 80.50 102.85 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116.26 32.71 86.31 119.02 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 92.50 126.77 3.56 7. 13 10.69
2004 133.38 36.10 99.10 135.21 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143.18 38.40 106.15 144.55 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143.16 38.39 110.64 149.02 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143. 14 38.37 110.64 149.00 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143. 12 38.35 110.64 148.98 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143.10 38.33 110.64 148.96 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 110.64 148.94 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143,06 38.29 110.64 148.92 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40.10 110.64 150.74 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146.18 41.40 95.16 136.56 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146.18 41.40 95. 16 136.56 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146.18 41.40 95.16 136.56 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 ...
2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
<l>See Table D-1
<2)See Table D-3
<3>See Table E-2
(4)Sum of' hydro and su~~lemental diesel cost.s.
<5>Potent i al s~ace heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<6>Potential s~ace heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<?>Potential s~ace heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE III-3
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I I-A
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984 '-
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh> < c /kWh> (c/kWh> (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 42.21 47.59 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 41.26 46.72 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 40.34 50.27 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 39.44 49.47 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 10. 19 38.56 48.75 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 37.71 48. 16 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 36.89 54.17 2. 19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 36.08 53.71 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 35.31 53.35 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 34.55 53.12 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 33.82 53.01 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 33.11 53.05 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 32.42 52.40 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 31.75 51.50 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 20.97 31. 10 52.07 3. 16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 30.48 52.83 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116.26 32.71 29.87 62.59 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 29.29 63.55 3.56 7. 13 10.69
2004 133.38 36.10 28.72 64.82 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143.18 38.40 28.18 66.58 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143.16 38.39 28.18 66.56 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143. 14 38.37 28.18 66.54 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143. 12 38.35 28.18 66.52 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143. 10 38.33 28.18 66.50 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 28.18 66.48 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143.06 38.29 28.18 66.46 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40. 10 28.18 68.28 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146. 18 41.40 28.18 6'3, 58 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146,18 41.40 15. 12 56.52 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146.18 41.40 15. 12 56.52 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146. 18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
<1>See Table D-1
<2>See Table D-3
(3)See Table E-3
<4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
(5)Potent i al space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<6>Potential space heating credit at 50% a1)0 i ded cost.See Tab 1 e F-1.
(?)Potential space heating credit at 75~~ avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE III-4
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-B
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984 -·-
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0,00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 34.71 40.08 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 33.94 39.39 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 33.19 43.13 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 32.47 42.50 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 10. 19 31.76 41.95 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 31.08 41.53 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 30.41 47.70 2. 19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 29.77 47.39 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 29. 15 47.19 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 28.54 47. 11 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 27.95 47.15 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 27.39 47.32 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 26.84 46.82 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 26.30 46.06 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 20.97 25.79 46.76 3. 16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 25.29 47.65 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116.26 32.71 24.82 57.53 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 24.35 58.62 3.56 7. 13 10.69
2004 133.38 36.10 23.91 60.01 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143.18 38.40 23.48 61.88 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143.16 38.39 23.48 61.87 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143.14 38.37 23.48 61.85 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143. 12 38.35 23.48 61.83 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143.10 38.33 23.48 61.81 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 23.48 61. 79 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143.06 38.29 23.48 61.77 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40.10 23.48 63.58 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146.18 41.40 23.48 64.88 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146. 18 41.40 13.03 54.44 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146. 18 41.40 13.03 54.44 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
(l)See Table D-1
<2>See Table D-3
(3)See Table E-4
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
<5>Potential space heating credit at 25% a~)oided cost.See Table F-1.
<6>Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See T.!:i.b 1 e F-1.
TABLE III-5
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-C
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
..
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh> (c/kWh> <c /kWh) (c/kWh) <c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) --------- --------------------------------------------- ---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 25.42 30.87 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 24.88 34.82 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 24.36 34.39 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 10. 19 23.85 34.04 1.99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 23.36 33.81 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 22.88 40.17 2. 19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 22.42 40.04 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 21.98 40.02 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 21.55 40. 11 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 21. 13 40.32 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 20.73 40.67 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 20.34 40.32 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 19.97 39.72 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 20.97 19.61 40.58 3. 16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 19.26 41.61 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116.26 32.71 18.93 51.65 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 18.61 52.88 3.56 7.13 10.69
2004 133.38 36. 10 18.31 54.41 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143. 18 38.40 18.02 56.42 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143. 16 38.39 18.02 56.40 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143. 14 38.37 18.02 56.38 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143. 12 38.35 18.02 56.36 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143.10 38.33 18.02 56.34 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 18.02 56.32 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143.06 38.29 18.02 56.30 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40.10 18.02 58.12 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146.18 41.40 18.02 59.42 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146. 18 41.40 10.61 52.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146.18 41.40 10.61 52.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146. 18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
<1>See Table D-1
<2>See Table D-3
(3)See Table E-5
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
(5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided •: ost. See Table F-1.
TABLE III-6
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-A
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUP PL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
( c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) < c /kWh) (C/kWh) < c /kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
------------------------------------ ---------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 43.37 48.75 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 42.39 47.85 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 41.44 51.38 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 40.51 50.54 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 10. 19 39.61 49.80 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 38.73 49.18 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 37.88 55.17 2. 19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 37.06 54.68 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 36.26 54.30 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 35.48 54.04 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 34.72 53.92 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 33.99 53.93 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 33.28 53.26 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 32.59 52.34 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 20.97 31.92 52.89 3. 16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 31.28 53.63 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116.26 32.71 30.65 63.37 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 30.05 64.32 3.56 7. 13 10.69
2004 133.38 36.10 29.46 65.57 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143.18 38.40 28.90 67.30 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143.16 38.39 28.90 67.28 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143.14 38.37 28.90 67.27 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143.12 38.35 28.90 67.25 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143.10 38.33 28.90 67.23 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 28.90 67.21 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143.06 38.29 28.90 67.19 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40.10 28.90 69.00 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146.18 41.40 28.90 70.30 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146.18 41.40 28.90 70.30 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146.18 41.40 28.90 70.30 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146. 18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
(!)See Table D-1
<2)See Table D-3
(3)See Table E-6
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
(5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoidE'd cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<7>Potent i al space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See TablE' F-1.
TABLE III-7
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-B
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
..
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) ( c/k Wh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 4.68 10.06 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 4.65 10. 10 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39. 18 9.94 4.61 14.55 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 4.58 14.62 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 10.19 4.56 14.75 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 4.54 14.99 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 4.52 21.81 2. 19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 4.51 22.13 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 4.50 22.55 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 4.50 23.06 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 61.69 80.89 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 60.30 80.24 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 58.95 78.94 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 57.64 77.39 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 20.97 56.36 77.33 3. 16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 55.12 77.47 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116.26 32.71 53.91 86.63 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 52.74 87.01 3.56 7. 13 10.69
2004 133.38 36. 10 51.60 87.70 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143.18 38.40 50.50 88.90 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143. 16 38.39 50.50 88.88 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143. 14 38.37 50.50 88.86 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143. 12 38.35 50.50 88.85 3.86 7.71 11. 57
2009 143.10 38.33 50.50 88.83 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 50.50 88.81 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143.06 38.29 50.50 88.79 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40.10 50.50 90.60 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146. 18 41.40 50.50 91.90 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146. 18 41.40 50.50 91.90 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146. 18 41.40 50.50 91.90 3.86 7.71 11. 57
2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57
<1>See Table D-1
<2>Se.-Table D-3
(3)See Table E-7
<4>Sum of hydro and :supp 1 ement a 1 diesel costs.
(5)Potent i al space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% a'v•o i ded cost.See Table F-1.
<?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE III-8
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE IV
WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
..
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh>
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ------------------------------------ ------------------ ---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 31.68 37.05 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 30.90 36.36 1.77 3.54 5.31
1988 39. 18 9.94 30. 15 40.09 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.62 10.03 29.41 39.45 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 1 e. 19 28.70 38.88 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 10.45 28.00 38.45 2.08 4. 17 6.25
1992 56.90 17.29 27.31 44.60 2.19 4.37 6.56
1993 60.24 17.62 26.65 44.27 2.29 4.59 6.88
1994 63.92 18.05 26.00 44.04 2.41 4.82 7.22
1995 67.96 18.57 25.36 43.93 2.53 5.05 7.58
1996 72.39 19.20 24.75 43.94 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77.25 19.94 24.14 44.08 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 19.98 23.55 43.54 2.90 5.79 8.69
1999 86.34 19.75 22.98 42.73 3.03 6.05 9.08
2000 92.76 20.97 22.42 43.39 3. 16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 22.35 21.87 44.22 3.29 6.58 9.88
2002 116. 26 32.71 21.34 54.05 3.43 6.86 10.28
2003 124.44 34.27 20.82 55.08 3.56 7. 13 10.69
2004 133.38 36.10 20.31 56.41 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143. 18 38.40 19.81 58.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2006 143. 16 38.39 19.81 58.20 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143.14 38.37 19.81 58.18 3.86 7.71 11.57
2008 143.12 38.35 19.81 58.16 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143.10 38.33 19.81 58.14 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 38.31 19.81 58.12 3.86 7.71 11.57
2011 143.06 38.29 19.81 58.10 3.86 7.71 11.57
2012 144.88 40.10 19.81 59.92 3.86 7.71 11.57
2018 146. 18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146. 18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146.18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146.18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161. 08 56.31 19.81 76.12 3.86 7.71 11.57
<l>See Table D-1
<2>See Table D-3
<3>See Table E-8
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
<5>Potentia1 space heating credit at 25% avoided co:st.See Table F-1.
(6)Potentia1 :space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(7)Potent i al :space heating credit at 75% avoided co:st.See Table F-1.
TABLE III-9
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UNIT COSTS OF ENERGY: W/ REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1994
100% REVENUE REVENUE BONDS AND STATE LOANS STATE
BONDS STATE GRANTS EQUITY SAVINGS FROM ENERGY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------SALES TO SPACE HEAT! NG
YEAR BASE I-A I-B II-A I I-B II-C III-A I 11-B IV 25% 50% 75%
CASE 100% 100% 50%/511% 40%/60% 43%/57%
(C/kWh) (c/kWh> (C/kWh) <c kWh) (C/kWh) ( c /kWh) < c /kWh> < c /kWh) (c/kWh> <C•nts/kWh) <C•nts/kWh> <C•nts/kWh>
(1) <2> (3) (4) <5> (6) en <8) <9) ( 10) ( 11) ( 12) ---------------------------- ------- ------------------------------------------------------1993 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 e.ee e.ee e.ee
1994 28.31 28.31 28.31 29.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 e.0e 0.00 e.e0
1985 29.78 29.79 29.7. 29.78 29.79 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 e.e0 0.00 e.e0
. 1986 31.35 85.12 31 5 47.59 40.88 31.35 48.75 10.06 37.05 1.73 3.47 5.28
1997 33.03 83.33 3 .78 46.72 39.39 30.87 47.85 10.18 36.36 t. 77 3.54 5.31
1998 39.18 86,00 0.61 50.27 43.13 34.82 51.38 14.55 40.89 1. 91 3,61 5.42
1989 41.62 84.32 43.27 49.47 42.50 34.39 58.!54 14,62 39.45 1. 89 3.79 5.68
1990 44.28 82.75 46.16 48.75 41.95 34.04 49.80 14.75 38.98 1. 99 3.97 5.96
1991 47.21 81.33 49.32 49.16 41.53 33.91 49.18 14.99 39.45 2.08 4.17 6.25
1992 56.90 96.54 59.25 !54.17 47.70 40.17 55.17 21.81 44.60 2.19 4.37 6,56
1993 68.24 85.29 62.87 53.71 47.39 40.04 54.68 22.13 44.27 2.29 4.59 6.89
1994 63.92 94. 16 66.79 !53.35 47.19 48.02 54.30 22.55 44.04 2.41 4.92 7.22
1995 67.96 83.17 71.03 53.12 47.11 48.11 !54.84 23.06 43.93 2.53 5,05 7.59
1996 72.39 92.33 75.63 53.01 47. 1 !5 40.32 53.92 90.99 43.94 2.65 5.29 7.94
1997 77,25 91.65 90.59 53.05 47.32 40.67 53.93 80.24 44.08 2.77 5.54 8.31
1998 81.75 90.31 85.14 52.40 46.92 40.32 53.26 79.94 43.54 2.98 5.79 8.69
1999 96.34 79.73 89.70 51.50 46.06 39.72 52.34 77.39 42.73 3.03 6.85 9,09
2000 92.76 78.63 96.02 52.07 46.76 48.58 52.89 77.33 43.39 3.16 6.32 9.48
2001 99.79 78.74 102.85 52.83 47.65 41.61 53.63 77.47 44,22 3.29 6.58 9.89
2002 116. 26 87.97 119.02 62.59 57.53 51.65 63.37 96.63 54.05 3.43 6,96 10.29
2803 124.44 99.22 126.77 63.55 58.62 52.88 64.32 87.01 55.08 3,56 7.13 10.69
2004 133.38 88.89 135.21 64.92 60,01 54.41 65.57 87,70 56,41 3.70 7.41 11. 11
2005 143.19 98,86 144.55 66.59 61.88 56.42 67.30 98.90 58.22 3.96 7.71 11.57
2006 143.16 90,04 149.02 66.56 61.87 56.40 67.29 89,98 58.20 3.86 7.71 11.57
2007 143.14 90.02 149.00 66.54 61.85 56.39 67.27 89.86 58.18 3.96 7.71 11.57
2008 143.12 90.00 148.98 66.52 61.83 56.36 67.25 99.95 58.16 3.86 7.71 11.57
2009 143.10 89.99 148.96 66.50 61.81 56.34 67.23 88.83 58.14 3.86 7.71 11.57
2010 143.08 89.96 148.94 66.48 61.79 56.32 67.21 98.81 59.12 3.96 7,71 11.57
2011 143,06 89.94 149.92 66.46 61.77 56.30 67.19 88.79 ~8.18 3.96 7,71 11.57
2012 144.88 91.75 150.74 69.28 63.58 58.12 69.00 90.60 59.92 3.86 7.71 11.57
2013 144,96 91.73 150.72 68.26 63.56 59.10 69.98 90.~8 59.90 3.86 7,71 11.57
2018 146.18 93.06 136.56 69.59 64.98 59.42 70.30 91.90 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2019 146. 18 66.94 136.56 56.52 54.44 52.01 70.30 91.90 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2020 146.18 66.94 136.56 56.52 54.44 52.01 70.30 91.90 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2021 146.19 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57
2035 161. 08 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 76. 12 3.86 7.71 11.57
<1>S•• Tabl• D-1
<2>S•• Tabl• D-3 and E-1.Sum or hydro and suppll'mental diesel costs.
<3>Se• Table D-3 and E-2.Sutn or hydro and suppl•mental di•s•l costs.
<4>s .... Tabh D-3 and E-3.Sulll or hydro and suppl•••ntal diesel costs.
(5)$ .... Tab I• D-3 and E-4,Sum or hydro and supp le1unt al dies• I costs.
<6>See T•bh D-3 and E-5.Sum or hydro and supplemental diest'l costs. '• <7>St>e Tablt> D-3 •nd E-6,Sum or hydro and supplt>mental di•s•l costs.
<8>S•• T&bl• D-3 and E-7.Sum or hydro •nd suppl•mental diest>l costs.
<9>S•• Tabh D-3 and E-8.Sum or hydro •nd supplem•ntal di•St'l costs.
< 10>Pot•nt i al savingS" rrom space heating It 2')% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
F-
TABLE 111-10
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FIHAHCIAL AHALYSIS SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UHIT COSTS OF EHERGY:W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUHE 1984
100% REVEHUE REVEHUE BOHDS AND STATE LOAHS STATE
BOHDS STATE GRAHTS EQUITY SAVIHGS FROM EHERGY
---------------------------------------------------------------------------SALES TO SPACE HEATIHG
YEAR BASE I-A 1-B II-A 11-B 11-C I I I -A III-B IV 25% 50% 75%
CASE 100% 100% 50%/50% 40%/60% 43%/57%
(c/klolh) < c /kWh) (<:/kWh> (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (C/kWh) (<:/kWh) (<:/kWh) (C/kWh) (Cents/kWh) (Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh)
(1) (2) (3) <4) <5) (6) (7) <8) (9) (10) <11) <12) ------------------------------------------___ .,.. ___ ------------------------------------------------------
1983 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 28.31 28. 31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 0.00 0.00 e.0e
1985 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 85.12 31.35 47.59 40.08 31.35 48.75 10.06 37.05 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 83.33 33.70 46.72 39.39 30.87 47.85 10.10 36.36 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 86.00 40.61 50.27 43.13 34.82 51.38 14.55 40.09 1.81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 84.28 43.23 49.43 42.46 34.35 50.50 14.57 39.40 1. 84 3,68 5.53
1990 42.96 82.65 46.06 48.65 41.85 33.94 49.70 14.65 38.79 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 81.16 49.15 47.99 41.36 33.63 49.01 14.82 38.27 1.92 3.83 5. 75
1992 53.82 86.27 58.98 53.91 47.44 39.90 54.91 21.55 44.34 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 84.89 62.48 53.32 47.00 39.65 54.29 21.74 43,88 2.00 3,99 5.99
1994 58.53 83.61 66.24 52.80 46.64 39,47 53.75 22.00 43.50 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61.17 82.43 70.29 52.38 46.37 39.37 53.30 22.32 43.19 2.08 4. 16 6,24
1996 64,01 81.36 74.65 52.04 46.17 39.35 52.94 79.91 42.96 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 80.39 79.34 51.79 46.07 39.41 52.67 78.99 42.82 2. 16 4,31 6,47
1998 69.51 78.71 83.54 50,81 45.23 38.73 51.67 77.34 41.94 2.19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 76.74 87.71 49.51 44.07 37.73 50.35 75.40 40.74 2.23 4.46 6. 6'1
2000 75.61 76. 17 93.57 49.61 44.30 38.12 50.43 74.87 40.93 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 75.74 99.85 49.82 44.64 38.61 50.62 74.46 41.22 2.29 4.59 6,88
2002 92.88 84.22 115.38 58.94 53.89 48.00 59.72 82.98 50.41 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 83.83 122.38 59.17 54.24 48.50 59.93 82.62 50.70 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102.16 83.63 129.95 59.57 54.76 49.16 60.31 82.45 51. 16 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 83.74 138.23 60.26 55.57 50.10 60.99 82.58 51.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 83.72 142.70 60.24 55.55 50.08 60.97 82.57 51.88 2.40 4.81 7,21
2007 107.28 83.70 142.68 60.22 55.53 50.07 60.95 82.55 51.86 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 83.68 142.67 60.20 55.51 50.05 60.93 82.53 51.84 2.40 4.81 7.21
200.9 107.24 83.66 142.65 60.19 55.49 50.03 60.91 82.51 51.82 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 83.64 142.63 60.17 55.47 50.01 60.89 82.49 51.80 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 83.62 142.61 60. 15 55.45 49.99 60.87 82.47 51.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 85.44 144.42 61.96 57.27 51.80 62.68 84.28 53.60 2.40 4.81 7.21
2013 108.99 85.42 144.40 61.94 57.24 51.78 62.66 84.26 53.58 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 86.74 130.25 63.26 58.57 53. 10 63,99 85.58 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 60.62 130.25 50.20 48.12 45.70 63.99 85.58 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 60.62 130.25 50.20 48.12 45.70 63.99 85.58 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 69.80 2.40 4.81 7,21
<1 )Su T .lb 1• D-2
<2>Su T.lbh D-4 •nd E-1. Sum of hydro .lnd supple111•ntal dies•l costs.
<3>S•e T.lble D-4 .lnd E-2.Sulll or hydro •nd supplem•ntal di•sel costs •
<4>Se• Table D-4 and E-3.Sum or hydro .lnd supp 1 ement a 1 di•s•l costs.
<5>See Table D-4 and E-4.Sum or hydro and supp 1 ement a 1 diesel costs.
<6>See T•ble D-4 and E-5.Sum or hydro and supple111•ntal diesel costs.
<7>Su• T.lble D-4 &nd E-6.Sum of hydro &nd st,~pple~~tental diesel costs.
<8>See T&ble D-4 &nd E-7.Sum of hydro and St,~pplemental diesel COStS •
<9>Su Tabh D-4 &nd E-8.Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
< 10)F'otent 1al sauln<;~s fro II! !>pace heating @ 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
t 11 "\P'""t •Mt. i a1 ~ ~\Jl nos from space heating@ 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE III-11
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
AND HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
SCHEDULE OF INVESTMENTS
DIESEL GENERATION
Year ReQlacements Additions
1988
1992
2002
2002
2012
2017
2022
2032
2032
SF:IEB:A01:3-III-2
300
2 X 155 kW
2 X 155 kW
300 kW
2 X 155 kW
300 kW
2 X 155 kW
2 X 155 kW
300 kW
Cost
{$12000}
218.9
291.0
546.2
528.5
645.6
528.5
645.6
645.6
528.5
.r.
3.:
~
' (/)
t-z w u
t-
(J)
0 u
>-~ a: w z w
1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation.
2. Alternative II-A is 50 % tax-exempt revenue bonds and 50 % state grants.
3. Alternative li-B is 40 % tax-exemp t revenue bonds and 60 % state grant.
4. Alternative II-C is 43.1% tax-exempt revenue bonds and 56.9 % state grant.
5. Alternative III-A is State Loan at 5%.
6. . Alternat i ve IV is State Equity Fi nanc i ng with 5% return.
7. All hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental d i ese l and adjustment
for energy sold to space heating.
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
W/ FUEL ESCALATION,W/ SPACE HEATING
HEATING CREDIT @ 50% AVOIDED COST
FIGURE
III-1
..c.
3::
~
' (J)
1-z w u
1-
(J)
0 u
>-t::J
ct w z w
YEAR
1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation.
2. Alternative I-A is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds.
3. Alternative I-8 is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds with graduated repayment
schedule.
4. Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%.
5. Alternative III-8 is State Loan at 5% with payments deferred for
10 years.
6. All hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental diesel and adjustment
for energy sold to space heating.
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
W/ FUEL ESCALATION,W/ SPACE HEATING
HEATING CREDIT @ 50~ AVOIDED COST
FIGURE
III-2
..r. 110
3:
..:;t
"-1BB tn
1-z w u ._,
1-
f.n
' 0 u 70 -· ---~--
>-
(!}
0:: w z w
YEAR
1. Costs shown include general inflation.
2. Costs shown with and without real fuel escalation.
3. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%.
4. Hydro alternative includes cost of supplemental diesel and adjustment for
energy sold to space heating.
ALASKA POHER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
H/ AND W/0 FUEL ESCALATION
HEATING CREDIT @ 50~ AVOIDED COST
FIGURE
III-3
._,
t-
(f)
0 u
>-(!J
~ w z w
----··-.. ·i··-· -----·---· ........ __
' I loV ~ HEATING CREDIT 1
-·-·----!.-.----------·--L------
1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation.
2. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%.
3. Hydro alternative includes cost of supplemental diesel.
4. Hydro alternative shown with and without adjustment for energy sold to
space heating.
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
W/ rUEL ESCALATION
FIGURE
III-4
W/ & W/0 HEATING CREDIT 8 50% AVOIDED COST
SF:IEB:A01:3-C
APPENDIX A
PROJECT DRAWINGS ~
#
PROJECT PLAN /
0 I
4
I
2
I
~~
I
1-t MILES
LOCATION MAP
NOT TO SCALE
,
VICINITY MAP
NOT TO SCALE
/
STATE OF ALASKA
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ANCHORAGE ALAsKA
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
OOWL ENGINEERS
ANCHORAGE ALASKA
GENERAL PLAN
TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY
SAN FRANOSCO CALIFORNIA
___ML_
358
2
::::J .... ~ ... 354 ....
!!!
350
PREFABRICATED INTAKE STRUCTURE -----
·-----
PLAN
SCALE I
ELEVATION
SCALE I 4
4
+I
U> ...
NEOPRENE SEAL;
!\
II
SYMM ABOUT t-.J I:
1 II
ot_GATE
I
CROSS BRACE_______.-
u SYMM ABO TIt;
GATE
,I -r-
I
1\
I
3 0
BACK BRACE W 6 x 9
( 2 REQUIRED PER 10 SECTION)
SECTION A
SCALE I 2 0
SECTION 8
SCALE I I 0
CONCRETE APRON
INLET STRUCTURE WALL
--'..--
L 2 5 x 2 CONNECTION SUPPORT ~ INLET STRUCTURE WALL
+
,:
I MAIN BRACE w 6 X g---..... ~
...
I
"'
--
I ++
+
I t-+
I C:ROSS BRACE ST 2 5 X 5)
~ • 1-
+
I
: I
I
,I
r PIN SUPPORT
4 3 0
t:1T: y 9It"'
2 0 6
SECTION C
SCALE I I 0
STATE OF ALASKA
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ANCHORAGE ALASKA
OLD HARBOR HYDROElECTRIC PROJIECT
DIVERSION FACIUTIES
PLAN ELEVATION AND SECTIONS
DOWL ENGINEERS
ANCHORAGE ALASKA
TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY
SAN FRAitCISCO CALIFOIINA
PLATEn
/
....
UJ
UJ
lL
z
0 ;:::
~
UJ
...J
UJ 20
STATION FEET
I lj SECTION A
I
I'
I
PLAN
SCALE 1 IOO
PROFILE OF
ALE IOO HORIZ ACCESS ROAD sc PENSTOCK I 0 24
40 VERT
SCALE 1 IOO
RING GIRDER
-24\1 STEEL PIPE
.... ' ', ....---NATURA <, SE L GROUND (TALUS)
' LECT ROADBED FILL
.... ...
TYPE I-SIDEHILL (TALUS)
BACKFILLED
TRENCH
--
OD+2 0
(TYP)
TYPE m-SIDE HILL (SOIL)
STATE OF ALASKA
ALASKA POWE ANCHORAGER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBO
PENSTOCK
OOWL E ANCHOR~~kNEERS ALASKA
~ ALASKA
R HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
-PLAN PROFILE A ND DETAILS
TUDOR E NGINEE SAN FRANC RING COMPANY ISCO CAUFORNIA
PLATE
l.c
3x3x! (TO MATCH FABRICATED WIER
NOT SHOWN)
~8
8-0
SECTION A
.....,b--J,-
TRASH RACK
I 6 PIPE STUD
FABRICATED wl INLET
STRUCTURE
I
-/<--
1 \
./
PENSTOCK
~""
E-
(GATE NOT SHOWN)
l•~
------
• "'•
PRE FABRICATED INLET STRUCTURE
SCALE I 2.
i -r-
I
0
I
<D
I I ---SL UICE GATE
~ .~
SECTION B
I
3x3x 4 BRACE
SLUICEWAY
(GATE NOT SHOWN)
SECTION C
NOTES
(I) ALL PLATES i MILD STEEL (A570)
(2) ALL EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SURFACES
OF DIVERSION WEIR HEADWORKS AND SEDIMENT
BASIN STRUCTURES TO BE SAND BLASTED AND
ZINC SPRAYED
FINAL COAT TO BE ZINC COMA!ITIBLE PAINT
STATION
SERVICE
H
II
SYNCHRONOUS GENERATOR
kVA PF 09 RPM
3 f/> GENERATOR
TO DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
3
TRANSFORMER
12. 470/4BOV
GENERATOR BREAKER
I
1: '~'"' '"~
3 I
,I
PPT ~~ 41 E
~--<,~t----+---,
II ,---L---'----,
I
!I
VOLTAGE
REGULATOR
ELECTRIC ONE-LINE DIAGRAM
rl NTS
II
0 20 40 60 80 !1100 120
SCALE I 20 [I
,I
'I
I
I
SYNCHRONIZING
STATE OF ALASKA
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ANCHORAGE ALASKA
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
DOWL ENGINEERS
ANCHORAGE ALASKA
INLET STRUCTURE
AND
ONE LINE DIAGRAM
TUDOR ENGINEERING CO!oFANY
SAN FRANCISCO CAUFORHIA
PLATE ISl
\
GENERAL PLAN
SCALE I 20
TURBINE SPEED INCREASER
-------.~~~--~----~A~--------------~ .•
TAILRACE
PROFILE-SECTION A
SCALE ~ I 0
16
ACCESS ROAD TO MIDWAY BAY DOCK ( ~ MILE)
FLYWHEEL
GENERATOR
EQUIPMENT
MOUNTING SKID
FENCE
FENCE
TURBINE SHUTOFF
VALVE
s
(
~
ELECTRICAL SWITCHGEAR -----11+----
""-
PENSTOCK DRAIN ---------~
PRESSURE SET-------------l
TURBINE
PROFILE-SECTION B
SCALE ~ I 0
0 4
POWERHOUSE PLAN
SCALE ~ I 0
PREFABRICATED
METAL BUILDING
PARKING AREA
AND YARD
--7/~;..>t.r -
EXISTING GROUND
LEVEL
SCALE 3
i6
8 12
SCALE I 4
60
SCALE I 20
16
01
'Is 20
~---PERSONNEL DOOR
..._----ENTRANCE DOOR
SPEED INCREASER
B
GOVERNOR ___j
TURBINE
[ORIGINAL GROUND LINE ----------------------2-
24
11
TAILRACE -SECTION C
SCALE I 4
STATE OF ALASKA
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ANCHORAGE ALASKA
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
POWERHOUSE-PLANS AND SECTIONS
OOWL ENGINEERS
ANCHORAGE ALASKA
TUDOR ENGINEERING COMFANY
SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA
DIVERSION WEIR POWERHOUSE
PANORAMAS OF PROJECT SITE, LOOKING SOUTHEAST. .____ __ DOCK
DIVERSION WEIR
EXHIBIT Vl-2
DIVERSION WEIR SITE, LOOKING DOWNSTREAM.
POWERHOUSE SITE (FAR BANK) AND STREAM GAGING STATION
EXHIBIT VI-3
SF:IEB:AD1:3-C
APPENDIX 8
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY .-
ANALYSIS PARAMETERS
SUMMARY OF RECO~~ENDATIONS
Analysis Parameters for the 1984 Fiscal Year
Economic Analysis
Inflation Rate -0%
Real Discount Rate -3.5%
Real Oil Distillate Escalation Rate
2.5% -First 20 years
0% -Thereafter
Cost of Power Analysis
Inflation Rate -6.5%
Project Debt to Equity Ratio -1:0
Cost of Debt .-10%
Economic Life and Term of Financing
Gasification Equipment
Waste Heat Recapture Equipment
Under 5 MW
Over 5 MW
Solar, Wind Turbines, Geothermal
and Organic Rankine Cycle Turbines
Diesel Generation*
Units under 300 KW
Units over 300 KW
Gas Turbines
Combined Cycle Turbines
Steam Turbines (Including Coal
and Wood-fired Boilers)
Under 10 MW
Over 10 MW
Hydroelectric Projects
Economic Life
Term of Financing
Transmission Systems
Transmission Lines w/ Wood Poles
Transmission Lines w/ Steel Towers
Submarine Cables
Oi 1 Fi 11 ed
Solid Dielectric
10 years
10 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
20 years
20 years
30 years
20 years
30 years
50 years
35 years
30 years
40 years
30 years
20·, years
*Diesel Reserve Units will have longer life depending on use. Also
this economic life is by unit and not total plant capacity.
9204/020 B-1
SF:IEB:A01:3-C
APPENDIX C
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
UPDATE
~· .,--.· ,,.
TABLE C-1
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:BASE CASE
JUNE 1984
YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED VARIABLE FUEL OIL FUEL OIL TOTAL PRESENT
CAPACITY ENERGY COST COST UNITCOST COST COST WORTH
DEMAND
<k W> <MWh) ($) ($) ($) (f) ($) ($)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ----------------------------------------------------------------
1983 155 584.85 23974 49712 1. 52 92601 166287 a
1984 155 599.47 23854 50955 1. 52 94916 169725 0
1985 155 614.46 23732 52229 1. 52 97289 173249 0
1986 155 629.82 23607 53534 1. 52 99721 176863 170882
1987 155 645.56 23480 54873 1. 52 102214 188567 168561
1988 310 661.70 116130 56245 1. 52 184769 277144 249968
1989 310 678.24 115998 57651 1. 57 110610 284259 247715
1990 318 695.20 115863 59092 1. 61 116777 291731 245630
1991 310 712.58 115725 60569 1. 66 123287 2995.81 243710
1992 310 730.40 213498 62084 1. 71 130160 405742 318909
1993 310 748.65 213354 63636 1. 76 137417 414407 314705
1994 310 767.37 213208 65227 1. 81 145078 423513 310744
1995 310 786.56 213059 66857 1. 87 153166 433082 307020
1996 310 806.22 212907 68529 1. 93 161705 443141 303527
1997 310 826.37 212752 70242 1. 98 170720 453714 300260
1998 310 847.03 205583 71998 2.04 180238 457819 292731
1999 310 868.21 194451 73798 2.10 198286 458535 283274
2008 310 889.92 194286 75643 2. 17 200894 470823. 31030
2001 310 912.16 194118 77534 2.23 212894 483747 2?8979
2002 310 934.97 193947 79472 2.30 223918 497338 .;: .. ?119
2083 310 958.34 193773 81459 2.37 236402 511634 2.:5444
2004 310 982.30 193595 83496 2.44 249581 526671 273951
2005 310 1006.86 193413 85583 2.51 263496 542491 272638
2806 310 1006.86 193228 85583 2.51 263496 542306 263328
2807 310 1006.86 193839 85583 2.51 263496 542117 254335
2008 310 1006.86 192846 85583 2.51 263496 541924 245646
2009 310 1006.86 192649 85583 2.51 263496 541728 237253
2010 310 1006.86 192449 85583 2.51 263496 541527 229146
2011 310 1006.86 192244 85583 2.51 263496 541323 221313
2012 310 1086.86 192035 85583 2.51 263496 541114 213747
2013 310 1006.86 191823 85583 2.51 263496 540901 206437
2014 310 1006.86 191686 85583 2.51 263496 540684 199376
2015 318 1006.86 191384 85583 2.51 263496 540463 192555
2016 310 1006.86 191158 85583 2.51 263496 540237 185966
2017 310 1006.86 190928 85583 2.51 263496 540086 179601
2018 310 1086.86 190693 85583 2.51 263496 539771 173452
2031 310 1006.86 190693 85583 2.51 263496 539771 110906
2032 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 144201
2033 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 139325
2034 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 134613
2035 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 130061
TOTAL 10,554,180,
......... ,.,...
TABLE C-2
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLE~ENTAL DIESEL
JUNE 1984
YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED VARIABLE FUEL OIL FUEL OIL TOTAL PRESENT
CAPACITY ENERGY COST COST UNITCOST COST COST WORTH
DEMAND
<kW> <MWh> ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ----------------------------------------------------------------
1983 155 584.85 23974 49712 1. 52 92601 166287 0
1984 155 599.47 23854 50955 1. 52 94916 169725 0
1985 155 614.46 23732 52229 1. 52 97289 173249 0
1986 155 629.82 23607 3153 1. 52 5874 32634 31530
1987 155 645.56 23480 3391 1. 52 6317 33188 30981
1988 310 661.70 116130 3701 1. 52 6895 126726 114299
1989 310 678.24 115998 4019 1. 57 7711 127728 111307
1990 310 695.20 115863 4379 1. 61 8653 128894 108525
1991 310 712.58 115725 4836 1. 66 9845 1304~6 106085
1992 310 730.40 213498 5362 1. 71 11241 230100 180857
1993 310 748.65 213354 5989 1. 76 12932 232276 176393
1994 310 767.37 213208 6632 1. 81 14750 234590 172126
1995 310 786.56 213059 7290 1. 87 16702 237051 168050
1996 310 806.22 212907 7966 1. 93 18796 239669 164160
1997 310 826.37 212752 8658 1. 98 21042 242452 160451
1998 310 847.03 205583 9367 2.04 23449 238400 152434
1999 310 868.21 194451 10094 2. 10 26028 230573 142444
2000 310 889.92 194286 10840 2. 17 28788 233914 139621
2001 310 912.16 194118 11604 2.23 31742 237464 136947
2002 310 934.97 193947 12387 2.30 34901 241235 134417
2003 310 958.34 193773 13189 2.37 38277 245239 132027
2004 310 982.30 193595 14051 2.44 42002 249647 129856
2005 310 1006.86 193413 15076 2.51 46417 254906 128107
2006 310 1006.86 193228 15076 2.51 46417 254721 123685
2007 310 1006.86 193039 15076 2.51 46417 254532 119414
2008 310 1006.86 192846 15076 2.51 46417 254339 1.15288
2009 310 1006.86 192649 15076 2.51 46417 254143 111304
2010 310 1006.86 192449 15076 2.51 46417 253942 107455
2011 310 1006.86 192244 15076 2.51 46417 253737 103737
2012 310 1006.86 192035 15076 2.51 46417 253529 100147
2013 310 1006.86 191823 15076 2.51 46417 253316 96679
2014 310 1006.86 191606 15076 2.51 46417 253099 93330
2015 310 1006.86 191384 15076 2.51 46417 252877 90095
2016 310 1006.86 191158 15076 2.51 46417 252652 86970
2017 310 1006.86 190928 15076 2.51 46417 252421 83953
2018 310 1006.86 190693 15076 2.51 46417 252186 81038
2031 310 1006.86 190693 15076 2.51 . 46417 252186 51816
2032 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 87110
2033 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 84164
2034 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 81318
2035 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 78568
TOTAL 5,099,789,
TABLE C-3
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
JUNE 1984
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT OS.M REPLACE. REPLACE. ANNUAL PRESENT
COSTS SERVICE SCHEDULE SINKING COST WORTH
FUND
($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985 3990000 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 169977
1987 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 164229
1988 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 158675
1989 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 153309
1990 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 148125
1991 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 143116
1992 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 138276
1993 0 170109 6000 0 18943 1'35052 133600
1994 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 129082
1995 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 124717
1996 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 120500
1997 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 116425
1998 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 112488
1999 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 108684
2000 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 105008
2001 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 101457
2002 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 98027
2003 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 94712
2004 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 91509
2005 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 88414
2010 0 170109 6000 55000 18943 195052 74442
2015 0 170109 6000 905000 18943 195052 62679
2035 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 31500
TOTAL PRESENT WORTH: 4,126,448
T.ABLE C-4
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
POTENTIAL SPACE HEATING CREDIT:ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
JUNE 1984
YEAR TOTAL
ELECTRICAL
DEMAND
HYDRO
AVAILABLE
FOR SPACE
HEATING
EQUIVALENT
GALLONS OF
FUEL OIL
FUEL
OIL
UNIT
COST
POTENTIAL
SA'r'INGS
AT 100%
AVOIDED
COST
PRESENT
WORTH
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2035
<kWh)
(1)
584.85
599.47
614.46
629.82
645.56
661.70
678.24
695.20
712.58
730.40
748.65
767.37
786.56
806.22
826.37
847.03
868.21
889.92
912.16
934.97
958.34
982.30
1006.86
1006.86
<kWh)
(2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
717.28
704.33
691.84
679.04
666.31
654.32
642.68
631.80
620.65
609.21
597.49
585.48
573.17
560.55
547.61
534.35
520.76
506.83
493.01
480.51
480.51
<GAU
(3)
0
0
0
25346
24888
24447
23994
23545
23121
22710
22325
21931
21527
21113
20688
20253
19807
19350
18882
18401
17909
17421
16979
16979
($/GAL)
(4)
1. 52
1. 52
1. 52
1. 52
1. 52
1. 52
1. 57
1. 61
1. 66
1. 71
1. 76
1. 81
1. 87
1. 93
1. 98
2.04
2. 10
2. 17
2.23
2.30
2.37
2.44
2.51
2.51
($)
(5)
<l>Total village electrical demand from Table II-1.
0
0
0
38525
37830
37159
37565
37967
38402
38851
39339
39804
40243
40653
41030
41372
41675
41935
42147
42307
42411
42492
42657
($)
(6)
42657
TOTAL
0
0
0
37222
35315
33515
32736
31967
31240
30537
29875
29205
28529
27845
27153
26454
25746
25031
24306
23574
22832
22102
21438
7638
960913
<2)Surplus hydro generation in excess of village electrical demand.
(3)Equivalent gallons of fuel oil for space heating based on 28.3 kWh/gal.
(4)1984 fuel oil cost=$1.52/gal.Constant at 6.5% through 1988,then at 3.5%
annually through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984.
(5)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus
hydro at 100% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating.
(6)Present worth January 1985 at 3%.
TABLE C-5
PRESENT WORTH AND B/C SUMMARY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
A. BASE CASE (Benefits)
Present Worth Base Case
B. RECOMMENDED HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT (Costs)
Present Worth Hydroelectric Costs
Present Worth Supplemental Diesel Costs
Total Cost w/o Space Heating
Present Worth Space Heating Credit
Total Net Cost w/ Space Heating
C. BENEFIT/COST RATIO
1. 8/C w/o Space Heating Credit
8/c -10,554,200 -1 14 -9,226,248 - .
2. 8/C w/ Space Heating Credit
B/C = 10,554,200 = 1 28 8,265,348 •
SF:IEB:AD1:3-C-5
$10,554,200
4,126,448
5,099,800
9,226,248
960,900
$ 8,265,348
-I
SF:IEB:AD1:3-C
APPENDIX D
DIESEL ANALYSES
~ TABLE D-1
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:BASE CASE W/FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED VARIABLE FUEL OIL
COST UNITCOST
FUEL OIL TOTAL
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CAPACITY ENERGY COST
DEMAND
(kW> <MWh> ($)
(1) <2> (3)
155 584.85
155 599.47
155 614.46
155 629.82
155 645.56
310 661.70
310 678.24
310 695.20
310 712.58
310 730.40
310 748.65
310 767.37
310 786.56
310 806.22
310 826.37
310 847.03
310 868.21
310 889.92
310 912.16
310 934.97
310 958.34
310 982.30
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
23974
23854
23732
23607
23480
52126
51994
51859
51721
98932
98789
98643
98494
98342
98187
91018
79885
79721
79553
161630
161456
161278
161096
160911
160722
160529
160332
160132
159927
178202
177989
177772
177551
177325
191545
191310
($) ($)
(4) (5)
46678
50955
55624
60720
66284
72357
78987
86224
94124
102748
112162
122439
133658
145904
159272
173866
189796
207186
226170
246893
269514
294208
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
1. 43
1. 52
1. 62
1. 72
1. 84
1. 96
2. 14
2.34
2.57
2.81
3.08
3.37
3.69
4.04
4.43
4.85
5.31
5.81
6.36
6.97
7.63
8.35
9.15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9.15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9.15
COST COST
($) ($)
< E»
86948
94914
103611
113104
123467
134780
151274
169786
190564
213884
240058
269435
302407
339414
380950
427569
479892
538619
604533
678512
761545
854739
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
959338
157600
169723
182966
197431
213231
259263
282254
307868
336408
415564
451009
490517
534559
583660
638409
692452
749574
825526
910256
1087035
1192515
1310225
1441599
1441414
1441225
1441032
1440836
1440635
1440430
1458706
1458493
1458276
1458054
1457828
1472048
1471813
UNIT
COST
26.95
28.31
29.78
31.35
33.03
39.18
41.62
44.28
47.21
56.90
60.24
63.92
67.96
72.39
71.25
81.75
86.34
92.76
99.79
116.26
124.44
133.38
143.18
143.16
143.14
143.12
143. 10
143.08
143.06
144.88
144.86
144.83
144.81
144.79
146.20
146. 18
2031 310 1006.86 191310 321165 9.15 959338 1471813 146.18
2032 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08
2033 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08
2034 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08
2035 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08
(1)Exi$ting system Is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit
every 15 years in perpetulty.Replace 155 kW units In 1992 and replace
every 10 years In perpetuity.Replace entire plant in 2032.
(2)1983 energy use from APA letter.Escalated@2.5~ annually.
(3)Debt service on existing and future loans.
(4)8,5 cents/kWh for 1984.Includes lube oil,operations,miscellaneous
consumables,malntenance,and lnsurance.AVEC system average.
(5)1984 fuel cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5~ through 1988,then at 9.5~
annually through 2005 according to APA letter to JOWL dated May 15,1984.
<6>Fuel oi 1 consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon.
...
TABLE D-2
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:BASE CASE W'O FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR FIRM VILLAGE
CAPACITY ENERGY
DEMAND
<kW> <MWh)
(1) (2)
FIXED
COST
($)
(3) ---------------- --------
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
155 584.85
155 599.47
155 614.46
155 629.82
155 645.56
310 661.70
310 678.24
310 695.20
310 712.58
310 730.40
310 748.65
310 767.37
310 786.56
310 806.22
310 826.37
310 847.03
310 868.21
310 889.92
310 912.16
310 934.97
310 958.34
310 982.30
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
23974
23854
23732
23607
23480
52126
51994
51859
51721
98932
98789
98643
98494
98342
98187
91018
79885
79721
79553
161630
161456
161278
161096
160911
160722
160529
160332
160132
159927
178202
177989
177772
177551
177325
191545
191310
VARIABLE FUEL OIL
COST UNITCOST
($) ($)
(4) (5)
46678
50955
55624
60720
66284
72357
78987
86224
94124
102748
112162
122439
133658
145904
159272
173866
189796
207186
226170
246893
269514
294208
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
321165
1. 43
1. 52
1. 62
1. 72
1. 84
1. 96
2.08
2.22
2.36
2.52
2.68
2.85
3.04
3.24
3.45
3.67
3.91
4. 16
4.43
4.72
5.03
5.36
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
FUEL OIL TOTAL
COST COST
(f) ($)
(6)
86948
94914
103611
113104
123467
134780
147129
160610
175326
191390
208926
228069
248966
271778
296679
323863
353536
385929
421290
459891
502028
548026
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
598239
157600
169723
182966
197431
213231
259263
278109
298692
321171
393071
419878
449151
481118
516024
554139
588746
623218
672837
727013
868413
932998
1003512
1080500
1080315
1080126
1079933
1079737
1079536
1079332
1097607
1097394
1097177
1096955
1096730
1110950
1110715
UNIT
COST
26.95
28.31
29.78
31.35
33.03
39.18
41.00
42.96
45.07
53.82
56.08
58.53
61. 17
64.01
67·. 06
69.51
71.78
75.61
79.70
92.88
97.36
102.16
107.31
107.30
107.28
107.26
107.24
107.22
107.20
109.01
108.99
108.97
108.95
108.93
110.34
110.31
2031 310 1006.86 191310 321165 5.70 598239 1110715 110.3I
2032 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22
2033 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22
2034 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22
2035 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22
(1)Exi$ting system is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit
every 15 years in perpetuity.Replace 155 kW units in 1992 and replace
every 10 years in perpetuity.Replace entire plant in 2032.
(2)1983 energy use from APA 1etter.Escalated@2.5% annually.
<3>Debt service on existing and future loan$.
(4)8.5 cents/kWh for 1984.Includes lube oil,operations,miscellaneous
consumables,maintenance,and insurance.AVEC system average.
(5)1984 fuel cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% annually through 2005
according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984.
(6)Fuel oil consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon.
TABLE D-3
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL W/FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CAPACITY ENERGY COST
DEMAND
<kW) <MWh) ($)
<1) (2) (3)
155 584.85
155 599.47
155 614.46
155 629.82
155 645.56
310 661.70
310 678.24
310 695.20
310 712.58
310 730.40
310 748.65
310 767.37
310 786.56
310 806.22
310 826.37
310 847.03
310 868.21
310 889.92
310 912.16
310 934.97
310 958.34
310 982.30
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
23974
23854
23732
23607
23480
52126
51994
51859
51721
98932
98789
98643
98494
98342
98187
91018
79885
79721
79553
161630
161456
161278
161096
160911
160722
160529
160332
160132
159927
178202
177989
177772
177551
177325
191545
191310
VARIABLE FUEL OIL
COST UNITCOST
($) ($)
(4) (5)
46678
50955
55624
3577
4096
4762
5506
6389
7516
8874
10556
12448
14574
16959
19631
22620
25961
29690
33848
38481
43638
49512
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
1. 43
1. 52
1. 62
1. 72
1. 84
1. 96
2. 14
2.34
2.57
2.81
3.08
3.37
3.69
4.04
4.43
4.85
5.31
5.81
6.36
6.97
7.63
8.35
9. 15
9.15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9. 15
9.15
9. 15
2031 310 1006.86 191310 56576 9.15
2032 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15
2033 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15
2034 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15
2035 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15
FUEL OIL TOTAL
COST COST
(f) ($)
<6>
86948
94914
103611
6662
7631
8869
10546
12581
15217
18472
22592
27393
32975
39453
46954
55628
65641
77185
90474
105755
123306
143842
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
168996
157600
169723
182966
33846
35207
65757
68046
70828
74453
126278
131937
138484
146044
154754
164772
169266
171488
186596
203876
305867
328400
354632
386668
386483
386294
386101
385904
385704
385499
403774
403562
403345
403123
402897
417117
416882
UNIT
COST
26.95
28.31
29.78
5.37
5.45
9.94
10.03
10. 19
10.45
17.29
17.62
18.05
18.57
19.20
19·. 94
19.98
19.75
20.97
22.35
32.71
34.27
36.10
38.40
38.39
38.37
38.35
38.33
38.31
38.29
40.10
40.08
40.06
40.04
40.02
41.43
41.40
168996 416882 41.40
168996 566930 56.31
168996 566930 56.31
168996 566930 56.31
168996. 566930 56.31
<!>Existing system is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit
in 1992 and replace every 15 years in perpetuity.Replace 155 kW units
every 10 years in perpetuity.Replace entire plant in 2032.
(2)1983 energy use from APA letter.Escalated at 2.5~ annually
(3)Debt service on existing and future loans.
<4>8.5 cents/kWh.Includes lube oll,operations,miscellaneous consumables,ordinary
and extraordinary maintenance,and insurance.AVEC system average.
<5>1984 fuel cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5~ through 1988,then at 9.5~
through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984.
<6>Fuel oil consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon.
TABLE D-4
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL W/0 FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CAPACITY ENERGY COST
DEMAND
<kW) <MWh) ($)
(1) (2) (3)
155 584.85
155 599.47
155 614.46
155 629.82
155 645.56
310 661.70
310 678.24
310 695.20
310 712.58
310 730.40
310 748.65
310 767.37
310 786.56
310 806.22
310 826.37
310 847.03
310 868.21
310 889.92
310 912.16
310 934.97
310 958.34
310 982.30
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
310 1006.86
23974
23854
23732
23607
23480
52126
51994
51859
51721
98932
98789
98643
98494
98342
98187
91018
79885
79721
79553
161630
161456
161278
161096
160911
160722
160529
160332
160132
159927
178202
177989
177772
177551
177325
191545
191310
VARIABLE FUEL OIL
COST UNITCOST
($) ($)
(4) (5)
46678
50955
55624
3577
4096
4762
5506
6389
7516
8874
10556
12448
14574
16959
19631
22620
25961
29690
33848
38481
43638
49512
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
56576
1. 43
1. 52
1. 62
1. 72
1. 84
1. 96
2.08
2.22
2.36
2.52
2.68
2.85
3.04
3.24
3.45
3.67
3.91
4. 16
4.43
4.72
5.03
5.36
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
2031 310 1006.86 191310 56576 5.70
2032 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70
2033 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70
2034 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70
2035 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70
FUEL OIL TOTAL
COST COST
(f) ($)
(6)
86948
94914
103611
6662
7631
8869
10257
11901
14000
16529
19662
23188
27148
31591
36567
42136
48358
55304
63050
71680
81286
92226
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
105385
157600
169723
182966
33846
35207
65757
67757
70148
73237
124335
129007
134279
140216
146892
154386
155774
154204
164715
176452
271792
286380
303016
323057
322872
322683
322490
322294
322093
321889
340164
:339951
339734
339512
339286
353507
353272
353272
503319
503319
503319
503319
UNIT
COST
26.95
28.31
29.78
5.37
5.45
9.94
9.99
10.09
10.28
17.02
17.23
17.50
17.83
18.22
18.68
18.39
17.76
18.51
19.34
29.07
29.88
30.85
32.09
32.07
32.05
32.03
32.01
31.99
31.97
33.78
33.76
33.74
33.72
33.70
35. 11
35.09
35.09
49.99
49.99
49.99
49.99
(1)Existing system is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit
every 15 years in perpetuity.Replace 155 kW units
every 10 years in perpetuity.Replace entire plant
in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit
in 1992 and replace
in 2032.
(2)1983 energy use from APA letter.Escalated at 2.5% annually
(3)Debt service on existing and future loans.
(4)8.5 cents/kWh.Includes lube oil,operations,miscellaneous consumables,ordinary
and extraordinary maintenance,and insurance.AVEC system average.
(5)1984 fuel cost=$1,52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% through 2005 according to
APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984.
<6)Fuel oil consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon.
SF:IEB:A01:3-C
APPENDIX E
HYDROELECTRIC ANALYSES
TABLE E-1
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE I-A:100% REVENUE BONDS WITH LEVEL PAYMENTS
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
APRIL 1984
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT
COST SERVICE
($) ($)
(1) (2)
OS.M
($)
(3)
REPLAC.
SCHED.
($)
(4)
REPLAC. RESERVE
SINKING FUND
FUND
($) ($)
(5) (6)
INT.
ON
RESERVE
($)
(7)
TOTAL
COST
($)
(8) ------- ------------------------------------------
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2010
2015
2018
2019
2020
2021
2035
0
0
5122910
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
531193
0 531193
0 531193
0 531193
0 531193
0 0
0 0
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
25538
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
404357
25538 3188899
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
0
0
0
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
21766 584312
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
584312
292156
292156
0
0
0
0
0
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
0
0
0
502247
502749
503283
503852
504458
505l04
505791
506523
507303
508133
509018
509959
510962
512031
513168
514380
515670
520067
58431 520067
58431
29216
29216
0
0
520067
257126
257126
47305
47305
UNIT
COST
(c/kWh)
(9)
0.00
0.00
0.00
79.74
77.88
76.06
74.29
72.56
70.88
69.25
67.66
66. 11
64.60
63.14
61.71
60.32
58.98
57.66
56.39
55. 15
51.65
51.65
51.65
25.54
25.54
4.70
4.70
(!)Capital cost including 10% interest during construction,3.75% financing
charge,and reserve equal to 110% of one years debt service.
(2)Debt sservice for 35 years at 10%.
(3)$5,000 for 1983.
(4)Replace runner every 25 years.Repl.ace transmission lines every 30 years.
(5)Sinking funds superimposed.
(6)110% of annual debt service.
(7)10% annual interest on reserve fund.
(8)Total annual cost of hydro.
(9)Annual unit cost of ~ydro.
TABLE E-2
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE I-B:100% REVENUE BONDS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS
MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE RATE OF INCREASE IN ANNUAL DEBT SERVICE:9.5%
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
COST SERVICE
($) ($)
(1) (2)
0
0
5122910
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
192531
210821
230849
252780
276794
303090
331883
363412
397936
435740
477136
522464
572098
626447
685959
751125
822482
900618
986177
1079864
0 1125075
0 1125075
0 1125075
0 1125075
0 0
O&M
($)
(3)
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
22516
2:3980
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
APRIL 1984
REPLAC.
SCHED.
($)
(4)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
REPLAC.
SINKING
FUND
( $)
(5)
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21?66
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
RESERVE I IH.
FUND ON
RESERVE
($) ($)
(6) (7)
0
0
0
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
584312
194771
194771
194771
0
0
0
0
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
58431
19477
19477
19477
0
TOTAL
COST
($)
(8)
0
0
0
163585
182377
202940
225439
250e60
277000
306481
338742
374046
412680
454960
501230
551867
607284
667934
734312
806959
886469
973492
1068737
1113949
958132
958132
958132
47305
UNIT
COST
(c/kWh)
( 9)
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.97
28.25
30.67
33.24
35.97
38.87
41.96
45.25
48.74
52.47
56.43
60.65
65. 15
69.95
75.06
80.50
86.31
92.50
99.10
106. 15
110.64
95. 16
95. 16
95. 16
4.70
2010 0 1125075 25538 234101 21766 584312 58431 1113949 110.64
2015 0 1125075 25538 3188899 21766 584312 58431 1113949 110.64
2035 0 0 25538 0 21766 0 0 47305 4.70
(!)Capital cost including 10% interest during construction,3.75% financing
charge,and reserve equal to 110% of one years debt service.
(2)Debt service required to make 1986 unit energy cost the same as base case.
Maximum allowable annual rate of incease in energy cost=9.5%.Capital
costs fully amortize~ over remainder of 35 year financing period when
amortization exceeds maximum allowable payment.
(3)$5,000 for 1983.Escalates at 6.5% annually.
(4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years.
(5)Sinking funds are superimposed.
(6)110% of annual debt service.
(7) 10% annual interest ear,ned on reserve.
(8)Total annual cost of hydro.
(9)Annual unit cost of hydro.
TABLE E-3
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-A:50% REVENUE BONDS & 50% STATE GRANT
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
JUNE 1984
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2035
COST SERVICE
($) ($)
(1) (2)
0
0
2561460
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
265597
0 265597
0 265597
0 265597
0 265597
0 265597
0 0
0 0
O&M
($)
(3)
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
22516
23980
25538
25538
REPLAC.
SCHED.
($)
(4)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
234101
25538 3188899
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
0
0
0
0
0
REPLAC.
SINKING
FUND
($)
(5)
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
RESERVE INT.
FUND ON
RESERVE
($) ($)
(6) (7)
0
0
0
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
292157
0
0
0
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
29216
.29216
TOTAL
COST
($)
(8)
0
0
0
265867
266368
266903
267472
268078
268723
269411
270143
270922
271753
272637
273579
274582
275650
276788
277999
279290
280664
282127
283686
283686
21766 292157 29216 283686
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
292157
292157
146078
146078
0
29216
29216
14608
14608
0
283686
283686
152216
152216
47305
47305
UNIT
COST
(c/kWh)
(9)
0.00
0.00
0.00
42.21
41.26
40.34
39.44
38.5.6
37.71
36.89
36.08
35.31
34.55
33.82
33. 11
32.42
31.75
31. 10
30.48
29.87
29.29
28.72
28. 18
28.18
28.18
28. 18
28.18
15. 12
15. 12
4.70
4.70
(1)Capital cost for 50% of construction cost.Includes interest during
construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid
by state grant
(2) 10% for 35 years.
(3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually.
(4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years.
(5)Sinking funds are superimposed.
(6)110% of annual debt sevice.
(7)10% annual interest earned on reserve.
(8)Total annual cost of hydro.
(9)Annual unit cost of hydro.
TABLE E-4
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-B:40% REVENUE BONDS & 60% STATE GRANT
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
JUNE 1984
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2035
COST SERVICE
($) ($)
(1) (2)
0
0
2049230
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
212484
0 212484
0 212484
0 212484
0 212484
0 212484
0 0
0 0
O&M
($)
(3)
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
22516
23980
25538
25538
REPLAC.
SCHED.
($)
(4)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
234101
25538 3188899
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
0
0
0
0
0
REPLAC.
SINKING
FUND
($)
(5)
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
217-66
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
RESERVE INT.
FUND ON
RESERVE
($) ($)
(6) (7)
0
0
0
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
233732
0
0
0
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
23373
TOTAL
COST
( $)
(8)
0
0
0
218596
219098
219632
220201
220807
221453
222140
222872
223652
224482
225367
226308
227311
228380
229517
230729
232019
233393
234857
236416
236416
21766 233732 23373 236416
21766 233732
21766 233732
21766 116866
21766 116866
21766 0
21766 0
23373
23373
11687
11687
0
0
236416
236416
131236
131236
47305
47305
UNIT
COST
(c/kWh)
(9)
0.00
0.00
0.00
34.71
33.94
33. 19
32.47
31.76
31.08
30.41
29.77
29. 15
28.54
27.95
27.39
26.84
26.30
25.79
25.29
24.82
24.35
23.91
23.48
23.48
23.48
23.48
23.48
13.03
13.03
4.70
4.70
(1)Capital cost for 40% of construction cost.Includes interest during
construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid
by state grant
(2) 10% for 35 years.
(3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually.
(4)Replace runner every.25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years.
(5)Sinking funds are superimposed.
(6)110% of annual debt sevice.
< 7) 10% annua 1 interest earned on reserve.
(8)Total annual cost of hydro.
(9)Annual unit cost of hydro.
TABLE E-5
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-C:36.4% REVENUE BONDS & 63.6% STATE GRANT
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2035
COST SERVICE
($) ($)
( 1) (2)
0
0
1485840
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
150672
0 150672
0
0
0
0
0
150672
150672
150672
150672
0
O&M
($)
(3)
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
22516
23980
25538
25538
REPLAC.
SCHED.
($)
(4)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
234101
25538 3188899
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
25538
0
0
0
0
0
JUNE 1984
REPLAC.
SINKING
FUND
($)
(5)
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
217-66
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
RESERVE I ~IT.
FUND ON
RESERVE
($) ($)
(6) (7)
0
0
0
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
165739
0
0
0
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
16574
TOTAL
COST
($)
(8)
0
0
0
163583
164085
164619
165188
165794
166440
167127
167859
168639
169469
170353
171295
172298
173366
174504
175716
177006
178380
179844
181402
181402
21766 165739 16574 181402
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
165739
165739
82869
82869
0
16574
16574
8287
8287
0
181402
181402
106820
106820
47305
47305
UNIT
COST
(C/kWh)
(9)
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.97
25.42
24.88
24.36
23.85
23.36
22.88
22.42
21.98
21.55
21. 13
20.73
20.34
19.97
19.61
19.26
18.93
18.61
18.31
18.02
18.02
18.02
18.02
18.02
10.61
10.61
4.70
4.70
(1)Capital cost for 36.4% of construction cost.Includes interest during
construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid
by state grant
(2) 10% for 35 years.
(3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually.
(4)Replace runner every. 25 years.Replace transmission lines e·~ery 30 years.
(5)Sinking funds are superimposed.
(6)110% of annual debt sevice.
(7)10% annual interest earned on reserve.
(8)Total annual cost of hydro.
(9)Annual unit cost of hydro.
TABLE E-6
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE III-A:STATE LOAN WITH 35 YEAR PAYBACK
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
JUNE 1984
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT O&M REPLAC. REPLAC. RESERVE
SCHED. SINKING FUND
FUND
INT. TOTAL
COST
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2020
2021
2035
COST SERVICE
($) ($)
(1) (2)
0
0
3990000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
243676
0 243676
0 243676
0 0
($)
(3)
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
22516
23980
25538
25538
($)
(4)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
234101
25538 3188899
25538
25538
25538
0
0
($)
(5)
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
217.66
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
($)
(6)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ON
RESERVE
($) ($)
(8) (7)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
273161
273663
274197
274766
275373
276~18
276705
277437
278217
279048
279932
280874
281877
282945
284083
285294
286584
287959
289422
290981
290981
0 290981
0 290981
0 47305
0 47305
UNIT
COST
0.00
0.00
0.00
43.37
42.39
41.44
40.51
39.61
38.73
37.88
37.06
36.26
35.48
34.72
33.99
33.28
32.59
31.92
31.28
30.65
30.05
29.46
28.90
28.90
28.90
28.90
4.70
4.70
(l)Capital cost with no allowance for interest during construction,finance fees
or reserve fund.
(2)Debt service for 35 years at 5%.
(3)$5,000 for 1983,escalate at 6.5% annually.
(4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years.
<5>Sinking funds superimposed.
(6)No reserve required.
<7>No reserve required.
(8)Annual total hydro c9st.
(9)Annua1 unit hydro cost.
TABLE E-7
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE 111-B:STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
JUNE 1984
YEAR CAPITAL DEBT O&M REPLAC.
SCHED.
REPLAC.
SINKING
FUND
($)
RESERVE INT. TOTAL
COST
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2020
2021
2035
COST SERVICE
($) ($)
(1) (2)
0
0
3990000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
461141
461141
461141
461141
461141
461141
461141
461141
461141
461141
461141
0 461141
0 461141
0 0
0 0
($)
(3)
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
22516
23980
25538
25538
($)
(4)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
234101
25538 3188899
25538
25538
25538
0
0
0
(5)
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
217.66
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
FUND ON
RESERVE
($) ($)
(6) (7)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
($)
(8)
0
0
0
29485
29987
30521
31090
31696
32~42
33029
33761
34541
35371
497396
498338
499341
500409
501547
502759
504049
505423
506887
508445
508445
0 508445
0 508445
0 47305
0 47305
UNIT
COST
(c/kWh)
(9)
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.68
4.65
4.61
4.58
4.56
4.54
4.52
4.51
4.50
4.50
61.69
60.30
58.95
57.64
56.36
55. 12
53.91
52.74
51.60
50.50
50.50
50.50
50.50
4.70
4.70
(!)Capital cost without interest during construction,finance charge,or reserve.
(2)Payment deferred for 10 years then amortized over 25 years at 5%.
(3)$5,000 for 1983.Escalates at 6.5% annually.
(4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years.
(5)Sinking funds superimposed.
(6)No reserve fund required.
(?)No reserve fund required.
(8)Annual hydro cost.
(8)Annual hydro unit co?t.
TABLE E-8
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE IV:STATE EQUITY INVESTMENT
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS
JUNE 1984
YEAR CAPITAL
COST
TOTAL
ANNUAL
COST
($)
(2)
O&M REPLACEMENT
SCHEDULE OF
INVESTMENT
($)
REPLACEMENT
SINKING
FUND
RETURN ON UNIT
INVESTMENT COST
($)
(1)
($)
(3) (4)
($)
(5)
($)
( 6)
(c/kWh>
(7) --------- -----------------------------------------------------------1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2035
0
0
3990000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
199500
0
0
0
7719
8221
8755
9324
9930
10575
11263
11995
12775
13605
14489
15431
16434
17502
18640
19852
21142
22516
23980
25538
21142
21142
21142
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
234101
3188899
0
0
0
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
21766
0
0
0
170015
169513
168979
168410
167804
167158
166471
165739
164959
164129
163244
162302
161299
160231
159094
157882
156592
155217
153754
152195
156592
156592
156592
0.00
0.00
0.00
31.68
30.90
30.15
29.41
28.70
28.00
27.31
26.65
26.00
25.36
24.75
24.14
23.55
22.98
22.42
21.87
21.34
20.82
20.31
19.81
19.81
19.81
19.81
(!)Capital cost without interest during construction,finance charge,or reserve.
(2) 5% of project capital cost return to state annually.
(3) $5000 for 1983,escalated at 6.5% annually.
(4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years.
(5)Sinking funds superimposed.
<6>Net return to state after paying O&M and sinking fund.
(?)Unit cost to consumers.
SF:IEB:AD1:4-C
APPENDIX f
SPACE HEATING ANALYSES
TABLE F-1
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
POTENTIAL SPACE HEATING CREDIT W/FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR TOTAL
ELECTRICAL
DEMAND
HYDRO
AVAILABLE
FOR SPACE
HEATING
EQUIVALENT
GALLONS OF
FUEL OIL
FUEL
0 IL.~
UNIT
COST
POTENTIAL
SAVINGS
AT 25%
AVOIDED
COST
POTENTIAL
SAVINGS
AT 50%
AVOIDED
COST
POTENTIAL
SAVINGS
AT 75%
AVOIDED
COST
<kWh)
(1)
<kWh)
(2)
<GAU
(3)
($/GAL) <Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh)
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2035
584.85
599.47
614.46
629.82
645.56
661.70
678.24
695.20
712.58
730.40
748.65
767.37
786.56
806.22
826.37
847.03
868.21
889.92
912. 16
934.97
958.34
982.30
1006.86
1006.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
717.28
704.33
691.84
679.04
666.31
654.32
642.68
631.80
620.65
609.21
597.49
585.48
573.17
560.55
547.61
534.35
520.76
506.83
493.01
480.51
480.51
0
0
0
25346
24888
24447
23994
23545
23121
22710
22325
21931
21527
21113
20688
20253
19807
19350
18882
18401
17909
17421
16979
16979
(4) (5) (6) (7)
1. 43
1. 52
1. 62
1. 72
1. 84
1. 96
2. 14
2.34
2.57
2.81
3.08
3.37
3.69
4.04
4.43
4.85
5.31
5.81
6.36
6.97
7.63
8.35
9. 15
9. 15
0.00
0.00
0.00
l. 73
l. 77
l. 81
l. 89
l. 99
2.08
2. 19
2.29
2.41
2.53
2.65
2.77
2.90
3.03
3. 16
3.29
3.43
3.56
3.70
3.86
3.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.47
3.54
3.61
3.79
3.97
4. 17
4.37
4.59
4.82
5.05
5.29
5.54
5.79
6.05
6.32
6.58
6.86
7. 13
7.41
7.71
7.71
(1)Total village electrical demand from Table 11-1.
(2)Surplus hydro generation in excess of village electrical demand.
(3)Equivalent gallons of fuel oil for space heating based on 28.3 kWh/gal.
(4)1984 fuel oil cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% through 1988,then at 9.5%
annually through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984.
(5)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus
hydro at 25% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating.
(6)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus
hydro at 50% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating.
(?)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus
hydro at 75% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating.
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.20
5.31
5.42
5.68
5.96
6.25
6.56
6.88
7.22
7.58
7.94
8.31
8.69
9.08
9.48
9.88
10.28
10.69
11. 11
11.57
11.57
TABLE F-2
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
OLD HARHOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
POTENTIAL SPACE HEATING CREDIT W/0 FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR TOTAL
ELECTRICAL
DEMAND
HYDRO
AVAILABLE
FOR SPACE
HEATING
EQUIVALENT
GALLONS OF
FUEL OIL
FUEL
OIL'
UNIT
COST
POTENTIAL
SAVINGS
AT 25%
AVOIDED
COST
POTENTIAL
SAVINGS
AT 50%
AVOIDED
COST
POTENTIAL
SAVINGS
AT 75%
AVOIDED
COST
<kWh)
( 1)
(kWh)
(2)
<GAL>
(3)
($/GAL) <Cents/kWh) (Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh)
(4) (5) (6) (7)
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1'390
1991
19'32
19'33
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2035
584.85
599.47
614.46
629.82
645.56
661.70
678.24
695.20
712.58
730.40
748.65
767.37
786.56
806.22
826.37
847.03
868.21
889.'32
912.16
934.97
958.34
982.30
1006.86
1006.86
0.00
0.00
0.00
717.28
704.33
691.84
679.04
666.31
654.32
642.68
631.80
620.65
609.21
597.49
585.48
573.17
560.55
547.61
534.35
520.76
506.83
493.01
480.51
480.51
0
0
0
25346
24888
24447
239'34
23545
23121
22710
22325
21931
21527
21113
20688
20253
19807
19350
18882
18401
17909
17421
16979
16979
1. 43
1. 52
1. 62
1. 72
1. 84
1. 96
2.08
2.22
2.36
2.52
2.68
2.85
3.04
3.24
3.45
3.67
3.91
4. 16
4.43
4.72
5.03
5.36
5.70
5.70
(!)Total village electrical demand from Table II-1.
0.00
0.00
0.00
(. 73
l. 77
l. 81
l. 84
t. 88
l. 92
l. 96
2.00
2.04
2.08
2. 12
2. 16
2.19
2.23
2.26
2.29
2.32
2.35
2.37
2.40
2.40
e.e0
0.00
0.00
3.47
3.54
3.61
3.68
3.76
3.83
3.91
3.9'3
4.08
4. 16
4.24
4.31
4.39
4.46
4.53
4.59
4.65
4.70
4.75
4.81
4.81
(2)Surplus hydro generation in excess of village electrical demand.
<3>Equivalent gallons of fuel oil for space heating based on 28.3 kWh/gal.
(4)1984 fuel oil cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% through 2005 annually
according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984.
<5>Potential savings to total village electrical cos~s from sale of surplus
hydro at 25% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating.
(6)Potential savings to total village electrical cos~s from sale of surplus
hydro at 50% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating.
(?)Potential savings to total village electrical cos~s from sale of surplus
hydro at 75% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating.
0.ee
e.0e
0.00
5.20
5.31
5.42
5.53
5.63
5.75
5.87
5.99
6. 12
6.24
6.36
6.47
6.58
6.69
6.79
6.88
6.97
7.05
7. 12
7.21
7.21
SF:IEB:AD1:3-C
APPENDIX G
FINANCIAL SUMMARIES
WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION
TABLE G-1
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-A
loJ/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kloJh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
( 1 ) (2) (3) (4) ( 5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 79.74 85.12 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 77.88 83.33 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 76.06 86.00 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 74.29 84.28 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 72.56 82.65 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 70.88 81. 16 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53.82 17.02 69.25 86.27 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 67.66 84.89 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 66. 11 83.61 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 64.60 82.43 2.08 4. 16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 63. 14 81.36 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 61.71 80.39 2. 16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 60.32 78.71 2. 19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 58.98 76.74 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75.61 18.51 57.66 76. 17 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 56.39 75.74 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 55. 15 84.22 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 53.95 83.83 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 52.79 83.63 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 32.09 51.65 83.74 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 51.65 83.72 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 51.65 83.70 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 51.65 83.68 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 51.65 83.66 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 51.65 83.64 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 51.65 83.62 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 51.65 85.44 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 51.65 86.74 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 25.54 60.62 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 25.54 60.62 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21
<l)See Table D-2
(2)See Table D-4
(3)See Tab 1 e E-1
<4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
(5)Potent i al space heat;ng credit at 25% avoided c o;:.st. See Tab 1 e F-1.
(6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Tab 1 e F-1.
(?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Tab 1 e F-1.
TABLE G-2
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-B
W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
( 1 ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ------------------------------------------------------ ---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 28.25 33.70 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39. 18 9.94 30.67 40.61 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 33.24 43.23 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 35.97 46.06 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 38.87 49. 1 s 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53.82 17.02 41.96 58.98 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 45.25 62.48 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 48.74 66.24 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 52.47 70.29 2.08 4. 16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 56.43 74.65 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 60.65 79.34 2. 16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 65. 1 s 83.54 2. 19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 69.95 87.71 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75.61 18.51 75.06 93.57 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 80.50 99.85 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 86.31 115.38 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 92.50 122.38 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 99.10 129.95 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 32.09 106. 1 s 138.23 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 110.64 142.70 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 110.64 142.68 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 110.64 142.67 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 110.64 142.65 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 110.64 142.63 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 110.64 142.61 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 110.64 144.42 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 95. 16 130.25 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 95. 16 130.25 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 95.16 130.25 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21
<1)See Table D-2
<2)See Table D-4
(3)See Table E-2
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental d;esel costs.
<S)Potent;al space heat; ng cred;t at 25% avo;ded cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potent; al space heat; ng cred;t at s0~: avo;ded cost.See Table F-1.
(7)Potent;al space heat;ng cred;t at 75% avo;ded cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE G-3
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-A
W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) ( 5) ( 6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 42.21 47.59 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 41.26 46.72 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 40.34 50.27 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 39.44 49.43 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 38.56 48.65 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 37.71 47.99 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53.82 17.02 36.89 53.91 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 36.08 53.32 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 35.31 52.80 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 34.55 52.38 2.08 4. 16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 33.82 52.04 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 33. 11 51.79 2. 16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 32.42 50.81 2. 19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 31.75 49.51 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75.61 18.51 31. 10 49.61 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 30.48 49.82 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 29.87 58.94 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 29.29 59. 17 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 28.72 59.57 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 32.09 28.18 60.26 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 28.18 60.24 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 28.18 60.22 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 28. 18 60.20 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 28. 18 60.19 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 28. 18 60.17 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 28. 18 60. 15 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 28.18 61.96 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 28.18 63.26 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 15. 12 50.20 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 15. 12 50.20 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21
(1)See Table D-2
(2)See Table D-4
(3)See Table E-3
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
(5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potential space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE G-4
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-B
W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLRGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
< c /kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) <2> (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 34.71 40.08 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 33.94 39.39 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 33.19 43.13 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 32.47 42.46 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 31.76 41.85 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 31.08 41.36 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53.82 17.02 30.41 47.44 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 29.77 47.00 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 29.15 46.64 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 28.54 46.37 2.08 4.16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 27.95 46.17 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 27.39 46.07 2. 16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 26.84 45.23 2. 19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 26.30 44.07 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75.61 18.51 25.79 44.30 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 25.29 44.64 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 24.82 53.89 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 24.35 54.24 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 23.91 54.76 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 32.09 23.48 55.57 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 23.48 55.55 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 23.48 55.53 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 23.48 55.51 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 23.48 55.49 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 23.48 55.47 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 23.48 55.45 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 23.48 57.27 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 23.48 58.57 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 13.03 48.12 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 13.03 48. 12 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21
(l)See Tab 1 e D-2
<2>See Table D-4
<3>See Table E-4
(4)Sum of hydro and :supplemental diesel co:st:s.
<S>Potent i al :space heating credit at 25% avoided co:st.See Table F-1.
<6>Potentia1 :space heating credit at 50% avoided co:st.See Table F-1.
<7>Potent i al :space heating credit at 75~{ avoided •:ost.See Table F-1.
TABLE G-5
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-C
W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
<c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> ( c/k Wh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0,00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31,35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 25.42 30.87 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 24.88 34.82 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 24.36 34.35 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 23.85 33.94 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 23.36 33.63 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53.82 17.02 22.88 39.90 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 22.42 39.65 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 21.98 39.47 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 21.55 39.37 2.08 4. 16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 21. 13 39.35 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 20.73 39.41 2. 16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 20.34 38.73 2.19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 19.97 37.73 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75.61 18.51 19.61 38.12 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 19.26 38.61 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 18.93 48.00 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 18.61 48.50 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 18.31 49.16 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 32.09 18.02 50. 10 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 18.02 50.08 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 18.02 50.07 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 18.02 50.05 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 18.02 50.03 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 18.02 50.01 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 18.02 49.99 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 18.02 51.80 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 18.02 53.10 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 10.61 45.70 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 10.61 45.70 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21
<1>See Table D-2
<2>See Table D-4
<3>See Table E-5
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental die-sel CC•StS.
<5>Potent i al space hi'ating credit at 25% al)O i ded cost.See Tab 1 e F-1.
(6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Tab 1 e F-1.
<?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE C-6
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-A
W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
< c /kWh) (c/kWh) <c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25~ 50% 75%
(1) (2) C3) (4) ( 5) (6) (7) --------------------------------------------- ------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 43.37 48.75 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 42.39 47.85 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39. 18 9.94 41.44 51.38 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 40.51 50.50 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 39.61 49.70 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 38.73 49.01 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53,82 17.02 37.88 54.91 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 37.06 54.29 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 36.26 53.75 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 35.48 53.30 2.08 4. 16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 34.72 52.94 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 33.99 52.67 2. 16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 33.28 51.67 2. 19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 32.59 50.35 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75,61 18.51 31.92 50.43 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 31.28 50.62 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 30.65 59.72 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 30.05 59.93 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 29.46 60.31 2.37 4.75 7.12
2005 107.31 32.09 28.90 60.99 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 28.90 60.97 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 28.90 60.95 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 28.90 60.93 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 28.90 60.91 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 28.90 60.89 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 28.90 60.87 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 28.90 62.68 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 28.90 63.99 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 28.90 63.99 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 28.90 63.99 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21
<1>See Table D-2
<2>See Table D-4
<3>See Table E-6
<4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
<5>Potent i al space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<6>Potential space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<7)Potent i al space heating •:red it at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
TABLE G-7
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE 111-B
W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------
1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 4.68 10.06 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 4.65 10. 10 1. 77 3.54 5.31
1988 39.18 9.94 4.61 14.55 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 4.58 14.57 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 4.56 14.65 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 4.54 14.82 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53.82 17.02 4.52 21.55 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 4.51 21.74 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 4.50 22.00 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 4.50 22.32 2.08 4. 16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 61.69 79.91 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 60.30 78.99 2.16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 58.95 77.34 2. 19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 57.64 75.40 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75.61 18.51 56.36 74.87 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 55. 12 74.46 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 53.91 82.98 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 52.74 82.62 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 51.60 82.45 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 32.09 50.50 82.58 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 50.50 82.57 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 50.50 82.55 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 50.50 82.53 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 50.50 82.51 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 50.50 82.49 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 50.50 82.47 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 50.50 84.28 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 50.50 85.58 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 50.50 85.58 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 50.50 85.58 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21
<1>See Table D-2
<2>See Table D-4
<3>See Table E-7
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
(5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potential space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
<7>Potent i al space heating credit at 75% avoided cost,. See Table F-1.
."
TABLE G-8
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE IV
1,..1/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION
JUNE 1984
YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE
CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING
CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT
(c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh)
25% 50% 75%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------
1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 31.35 5.37 31.68 37.05 1. 73 3.47 5.20
1987 33.03 5.45 30.90 36.36 1.77 3.54 5.31
1988 39. 18 9.94 30.15 40.09 1. 81 3.61 5.42
1989 41.00 9.99 29.41 39.40 1. 84 3.68 5.53
1990 42.96 10.09 28.70 38.79 1. 88 3.76 5.63
1991 45.07 10.28 28.00 38.27 1. 92 3.83 5.75
1992 53.82 17.02 27.31 44.34 1. 96 3.91 5.87
1993 56.08 17.23 26.65 43.88 2.00 3.99 5.99
1994 58.53 17.50 26.00 43.50 2.04 4.08 6. 12
1995 61. 17 17.83 25.36 43.19 2.08 4. 16 6.24
1996 64.01 18.22 24.75 42.96 2. 12 4.24 6.36
1997 67.06 18.68 24.14 42.82 2. 16 4.31 6.47
1998 69.51 18.39 23.55 41.94 2. 19 4.39 6.58
1999 71.78 17.76 22.98 40.74 2.23 4.46 6.69
2000 75.61 18.51 22.42 40.93 2.26 4.53 6.79
2001 79.70 19.34 21.87 41.22 2.29 4.59 6.88
2002 92.88 29.07 21.34 50.41 2.32 4.65 6.97
2003 97.36 29.88 20.82 50.70 2.35 4.70 7.05
2004 102. 16 30.85 20.31 51. 16 2.37 4.75 7. 12
2005 107.31 32.09 19.81 51.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2006 107.30 32.07 19.81 51.88 2.40 4.81 7.21
2007 107.28 32.05 19.81 51.86 2.40 4.81 7.21
2008 107.26 32.03 19.81 51.84 2.40 4.81 7.21
2009 107.24 32.01 19.81 51.82 2.40 4.81 7.21
2010 107.22 31.99 19.81 51.80 2.40 4.81 7.21
2011 107.20 31.97 19.81 51.78 2.40 4.81 7.21
2012 109.01 33.78 19.81 53.60 2.40 4.81 7.21
2018 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2019 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2020 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2021 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21
2035 125.22 49.99 19.81 69.80 2.40 4.81 7.21
<1>See Table [1-2
<2>See TablE' D-4
<3>See Tab 1 e E-8
(4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs.
(5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1.
(6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% a'Jo i ded cost.See Table F-1.
(?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.