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HomeMy WebLinkAboutFinancial Analysis for Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project 1984Financial Analysis for OLD HARBOR · HYD~OELECTRIC PROJECT Submitted by DOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE, ALASKA In Association with TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY SAN FRANCISCO •. CALIFORNIA DRYDEN & LARUE ANCHORAGE, ALASKA SEPTEMBER 1984 .____ __ ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY __ __, .. TABlE OF CONTENTS .. SF:IEB:AD1:3-C ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page SUMMARY. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • i I. INTRODUCTION .•...•.•....•.........•.•.•..............•.•. I-1 A. GENERAL. • . • . . . • • • • • • . . . • • • • . . . . • . • • • . . . • . • . • • . . . . . • . I -1 B. DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND.......................... I-1 C. OVERVIEW............................................ I-2 D. REPORT FORMAT....................................... I-3 II. GENERAL CRITERIA......................................... II-1 A. GENERAL............................................. Il-l B. FINANCIAL CRITERIA.................................. II-1 C. ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY............................ I I-2 D. DIESEL COSTS........................................ II-4 E. HYDROELECTRIC COSTS................................. II-5 F. OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS..................... II-6 G. CANNERY............................................. II-7 III. FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES A. GENERAL ••..•...•...•...•.•.......•••.....•.••.•..•.. III-1 B. BASE CASE........................................... III-1 C. SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL................................. III 2 D. CANNERY............................................. III-2 E. FINANCIAL PLANS..................................... III-3 1. ALTERNATIVE I-A: 100% REVENUE BONDS........... III-4 2. ALTERNATIVE I-8: 100% REVENUE BONDS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS........................... III-5 SF:IEB:AD1:3-TC 3. ALTERNATIVE II-A: 50% REVENUE BONDS/ 50% STATE GRANT ••..•.•....•••.......•.......• I II-5 4. ALTERNATIVE II-B: 40% REVENUE BONDS/ 60% STATE GRANT ..•••..•••..••...••••..•.•...• I II-5 5. ALTERNATIVE II-C: 43.1% REVENUE BONDS/ 56.9% STATE GRANT ••••.•••..••..••..••.•..•••. IIl-6 6. ALTERNATIVE II I -A: STATE LOAN •••..•••.•••...•• III-6 7. ALTERNATIVE I II -B: STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT •...•....•...•••..•........•• II I-6 8. ALTERNATIVE IV: STATE EQUITY FINANCING ••....•. I II-7 F. DISCUSSION OF ANALYSIS .............................. III-7 APPENDIX A: PROJECT DRAWINGS APPENDIX B: APA ANALYSIS PARAMETERS APPENDIX C: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS UPDATE APPENDIX D: DIESEL ANALYSES APPENDIX E: HYDROELECTRIC ANALYSES APPENDIX F: CANNERY ANALYSES APPENDIX G: FINANCIAL SUMMARIES WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION SF:IEB:AD1:3-TC SUNitARY SF:IEB:AD1:3-C SUMMARY This report presents the results of an analysis of various alternative possible methods of financing the Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project (Project). A detailed report for this project titled Feasibility Study for Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project, was presented to the Alaska Power Authority (APA) by DOWL Engineers, August 1982. This report showed the project to be economically feas i b 1 e and a recent economic analysis, updated using newer costs and energy consumption data, has indicated that the project is still economically viable. Various methods considered for financing the project include tax-exempt revenue bonds, state grants, state loans at five percent interest, and a state equity investment yielding a five percent annual return. The alternatives are addressed in detail in Section III of this report. The average cost of energy to consumers was calculated on an annual basis for each alternative. The cost of power to the users will vary depending on the type of financ- ing chosen, which could include various uses of state grants, loans, or equity financing. The actual cost of power may be slightly greater or less than the costs presented in this report. Variables that may influence the cost of power include a conservative, and therefore potentially high, cost estimate: and potentially low initial energy sales. No attempt will be made here to select the best method of financing the Project, as this is a policy decision and as such is beyond the scope of this report. The intent of this report is to present data and the results of the various analyses so that the information is available for the policy and decision making processes. SF:IEB:AD1:3-S PROJECT DESCRIPTION The recommended project would have an installed capacity of 340 kW and would be located on Midway Creek, a small stream about four miles from the town of Old Harbor on the southeast coast of Kodiak island. The project would be a run-of-the-river type consisting of a low weir, about 5 feet high, which would divert the stream into a 24-inch penstock extending 2,200 feet to a small powerhouse 243 feet lower in elevation where the 340 kW turbine gener- ator would be located. The diverted flows are then returned to Midway Creek. No significant environmental impact, including damage to fisheries, is expected. The town of Old Harbor currently relies totally on diesel generation to meet electrical needs. This hydroelectric project w"ould be capable of supplying approximately 94 percent of the electrical needs of Old Harbor in 1986 and 82 percent in 2005. Some supplemental diesel generation would, however, still be necessary. STUDY METHODOLOGY The general methodology of the study consisted of first establishing the financial cost of the "base-case" alternative for Old Harbor and then comparing this cost to the cost of the hydroelectric project using eight specified financial alternatives. The purpose of this comparison of the base case to the financial alternatives was to demonstrate how each of the financial alternative plans studied compared with the actual avoided financial cost of the base case. STUDY ASSUMPTIONS The planning period for the project begins with January 1986 and extends 20 years, including 1986 and 2005. The hydroelectric project was assumed to be on-1 ine by January 1986 and the overall analysis extends 50 years beyond this time (1983-2035) .. The years 1983 through 1985 were included in the analysis for information only. The analysis was conducted assuming a general inflation rate of 6.5 percent for all costs for the 20-year planning period and a zero inflation rate thereafter. Since most economists predict a long- term additional escalation in the cost of fuel above the general inflation ; ; SF:IEB:AD1:3-S rate, the analysis was also conducted both with and without an additional fuel escalation of 3.0 percent applied over the period 1989-2005. The proposed hydroelectric project will sometimes produce more power than Old Harbor can use and the financial impact on the unit energy cost to Old Harbor of selling this excess energy to some other use, such as space heating, was also analyzed at several alternative selling prices. FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES As specified by the APA, four basic alternative methods of financing the project were considered. These were (1) 10. percent tax-exempt revenue bonds alone, (2) state grants in conjunction with 10 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds, (3) direct state financing at 5 percent interest and (4) state equity financing with a 5 percent annual return. The repayment period of revenue bonds and state loans would be 35 years. Two different repayment schedules were considered for the tax-exempt revenue bonds alone, three different combinations of the state grants in conjunct ion with the tax-exempt revenue bonds were considered, and two different payback schemes for the direct state financing were considered. This resulted in a total of eight different alternative plans, each of which was analyzed both with three percent real fuel escalation and without real fuel escalation. The results of the analysis are shown in the summary Tables S-1 (with fuel escalation) and S-2 (without fuel escalation). A summary description of the plans is presented below. 1. Alternative I-A. Tax-exempt Revenue Bonds with a levelized repay- ment schedule. 2. Alternative I-B. Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds with a graduated repay- ment schedule. This plan allows initial annual payments that result in an overall average unit energy cost equa 1 to the base case for the, first year of hydro generation and then calls for increases in annual payments at a maximum rate of 9.5 percent until a levelized payment can be made by fully amortizing the outstanding principal over the remainder of the 35-year financing period without exceeding the maximum rate of increase. Lower rates of maximum annual i i i SF:IEB:AD1:3-S 3. 4. 5. increase were considered and found to be infeasible. Alternative II-A. 50 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and 50 per- cent state grant. Alternative II-8. 40 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and 60 per- cent state grant. Alternative II-C. 43.1 percent tax-exempt revenue bonds and 56.9 percent state grant. For this plan the tax-exempt revenue bond portion was established by solving for the amount of debt service that would yield an average unit cost of energy equal to the base- case unit cost of energy in 1986. 6. Alternative III-A -State loan for 35 years at five percent. 7. Alternative III-B -State loan at five percent with principal and interest payments deferred for 10 years. Payments for the first 10 years would be O&M only, and the principal and deferred interest of the loan would be fully amortized over the remaining 25 years of the 35-year financing period. 8. Alternative IV -State equity financing with return to the state on investment equal to five percent of capital cost. The operation and maintenance expenses of the hydroelectric project would be paid from the return to the state. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS Summary results of the financial analyses in terms of the unit cost of energy in cents per kilowatt hour are presented in Table S-1 (three percent real fuel escalation) and Table S-2 (no real fuel escalation). Comparison of the two base-case costs indicate the marked effect of fuel escalation on the cost of the avoided diesel system. Figure S-1 shows a general comparison of iv SF:IEB:AD1:3-S the cost of two hydro financial alternatives with the base case. More details are presented in the body of the report. The most realistic basis for evaluation of the various alternatives studied to finance the Scammon Bay Hydroelectric Project is a comparison of the energy costs of the base case with the total costs system including the hydroelectric project, using the alternative financial plans studied. The use of excess hydroelectric power for space heating was also considered. A range of sales prices were considered to test the sensitivity to this sale. For use in this comparative analysis, developing the cost of the base case was given careful attention. Through cooperative efforts of local Alaska consultants and APA personnel, representative existing diesel electricity costs were estimated for the first year of analysis, 1986, and projected through the 50 year life of the hydroelectric project extending from 1986 through 2035. Growth and price escalation were limited to the 20 year period of 1986 through 2005, after which both factors were assumed to be zero until the end of the period of study in 2035. If the summary Table S-1 of 24 possible combinations (i.e. eight basic a 1 tern at i ves with three space alternatives for each) is condensed to some of the most significant findings for several selected financial alternatives, the following table can be derived. Also, Figure S-1 presents the same data graphically for the base case, and hydro alternatives 1-A and III-A. As can be noted, alternatives II-A and III-A are very similar and II-A was therefore not included. With 50% Avoided Cost S~ace Heating Credit III-A: 100% State Equity I-A: 100% Tax I I-A: 50-50 State Loan with 5% Base Case Exemp., Level Tax Ex./Grant @ 5% Int., Level Return Year (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) 1986 31 82 44 45 34 1990 44 79 45 46 35 1995 68 78 48 49 39 2005 143 82 59 60 51 v SF:IEB:A01:3-S made: In analyzing these results, the following general observations can be 1. With 100 percent tax-exempt financing and levelized payments (I-A) it would take about 13 years before local interests would be able to take advantage of savings created by the hydro project. 2. The plan reflecting a 50/50 tax-exempt financing/state grant (II-A), and the plan with a 100 percent state loan at 5 percent interest and levelized payments (III-A) would both produce essentially the same cost of power. These plans would result in savings in electricity costs in the sixth year and increase significantly over 15 years because of the inflation-proofing provided by hydro. 3. Other apparent observations from an analysis of the summary Table S-1 indicate: a. Financial alternatives II-A, II-8, II-C, III-A and IV have very similar results. b. The graduated payment approach applied to the 100 percent tax- exempt financing (I-B) would provide only minor increases in early years followed by substantial savings after 5 years. c. There is very little difference between the 40/60 tax- exempt/State grant financing (II-B), and the financial plan that derives the 43/57 percent combination that will just equal the base case diesel costs (II-C). d. The five percent State equity plan (IV) increases the savings a small percentage over the two plans discussed in c. above. vi SF:IEB:AD1:3-S e. The 10-year deferral on the State loan {III-B) produces savings of 68 percent when compared to the base case in 1986, but increases in the 11th year to about 104 percent of the starting point, which seems impractical. vii SF:IEB:AD1:3-S TABLE S-1 SlM4ARY Of ALL FINANCIAL PLANs!/ (With Real Fuel Escalation) Combinations of Tax-Exempt 100% Tax-Exempt Bonds~/ Bonds and State Grants 21 State Loans 21 1-A 1-B II-A 11-B 11-C Ill-A 111-B Base Level Graduated 50/50~1 40!60£1 43/57?./ Level Deferred Hydro CaseY Payments~/ PaymentsY PaymentsY Payments~/ Year Year <f/KWh) (f/KWh) <f!KWh) <f!KWh) <f!KWh) <ffKWh) <fiKWh) (f/KWh) 1986 31.35 85.12 31 .35 47.59 40.08 31.35 48.75 10.06 5 1990 44.28 82.75 46.16 48.75 41.95 34.04 49.80 14.75 10 1995 67.96 83.17 41.03 53.12 47 .II 40.11 54.04 23.06 20 2005 143.18 90.06 144.55 66.58 61.88 56.42 67.30 88.90 50 2035 161.08 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 1/ See Table D-1. Cost of continued existing diesel system, with real fuel escalation. Costs of financial 3/ See Table E-1. 4/ See Table E-2. 5/ See Table E-3. 6/ See Table E-4. 71 See Table E-5. 8/ See Table E-6. 9/ See Table E-7. 10/ See Table E-8. 11/ See Table F-1. Sf :IEB:AD1:3-S-1 plans are the sum of supplemental diesel and hydroelectric costs. Potential Price State E9uit~10 /!/ Reduction from Space Heatingl1/!/ IV 25% 50% 100% Avoided Avoided AYoided Cost Cost Cost <f!KWh) <f!KWh) (f/KWh) <f!KWh) 37.05 1.73 3.47 5.20 38.88 1.99 3.97 5.96 43.93 2.53 s.os 7.58 58.22 3.86 7.71 11 .57 76.12 3.86 7.71 l1 .57 TABLE S-2 Sllf44ARY Of ALL F I NANC I AL PLANs.!/ (Without Real Fuel Escalation) Combinations of Tax-Exempt 100% Tax-Exem~t Bonds~/ Bonds and State Grants 21 State Loans 2/ 1-A 1-B II-A 11-8 11-C lil-A 111-B Base Level Graduated 50/50~1 40/60~1 43/57!./ Level Deferred Hydro Case..!/ .Payments~/ Payments-11 Payments~/ Payments~/ Year Year <fiKWh l <f!K\IIh l <fiKWh l (f/KWh) (f/KWh l <f/KWh) (f/K\IIh) <fiKWh l 1986 31 .35 85.12 31.35 47.59 40.08 31.35 48.75 10.06 5 1990 42.96 82.65 46.06 48.65 41.85 33.94 49.70 14.65 10 1995 61.17 82.43 10.29 52.38 46.37 39.37 53.30 22.32 20 2005 104.31 83.74 138.23 60.26 55.57 50.10 60.99 82.58 50 2035 125.22 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 1 See Table D-2. Cost of continued existing diesel system, without real fuel escalation. 21 Costs of financial plans are the sum of supplemental diesel and hydroelectric costs. 3/ See Table G-1. 4/ See Table G-2. ~I See Table G-3. 6/ See Table G-4. 71 See Table G-5. 8/ See Table G-6. 9/ See Table G-7. 10/ See Table G-8. 11/ See Table F-2. SF:IEB:AD1:3-S-2 Potential Price State Eguitx!2 1~1 Reduction from Space Heatingl1/~/ IV 25% 50% 100% Avoided Avoided Avoided Cost Cost Cost <fiKWh l <fiKWh) <fiKWh l <fiKWhl 37.05 1.73 3.47 5.20 38.79 1.88 3.76 5.63 43.19 2.08 4.16 6.24 57.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 69.80 2.40 4.81 7.21 ,... .J:. 118 3: .:s: " (I) .... z w u ....., t- (1) 0 u >-Cl ll: w z w 1. Costs include general inflation and real fuel escalation. 2. Hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental diesel. 3. Hydro alternatives include adjustment for energy sold to cannery. 4. Hydro Alternative I-A is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds, 35 years @ 10%. 5. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years@ 5%. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ rUEL ESCALATION,W/ SPACE HEATING HEATING CREDIT e 50% AVOIDED COST FIGURE S-I SF:IEB:AD1:3-C SECTION I INTRODUCTION A. GENERAL SECTION I INTRODUCTION The Alaska Power Authority (APA) is considering a hydroelectric development at the village of Old Harbor. Previous studies have shown the project to be economically feasible and the purpose of this report is to present alternative methods of financing the project. B. DESCRIPTION AND BACKGROUND Old Harbor is a small village located on the southeast coast of Kodiak Island, 50 miles southwest of the City of Kodiak. The proposed hydroelectric project site is on Midway Creek about four miles northest of town. The project would include a low diversion weir, a 24 inch diameter and 2,200 feet long penstock, and a 340 kW powerhouse which would produce 1.31 GWh of electrical energy in an average year. The total construction cost for the project at 1985 price levels would be approximately $3,990,000. The project was studied by DOWL Engineers in 1981 and 1982 and was found to be environmentally feasible with only minor environmental effects. The results of the study were presented in a report titled Feasibility Study for Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project, OOWL Engineers, August 1982. The project drawings from the feasibility report are presented as Appendix A. The economic analysis for the project was updated in June 1984, using current cost and energy consumption data. A copy of this economic analysis is included as Appendix B. Using the standard APA economic criteria with an inflation-free dis- count rate of 3.~ percent, a benefit/cost ratio of 1.3 was derived. This analysis included the space heating benefits expressed in terms of savings in diesel heating fuel as a benefit to the hydro project. These benefits were assumed to be the avoided cost of the fuel oil, assuming that 28.3 kWh I 1 SF:IEB:AD1:3-l of electricity used for space heating is equivalent to burning one gallon of fuel oil. C. OVERVIEW The main objective of an economic analysis is to determine the inher- ent economic viability; that is, how do the economic benefits of the proj- ect compare to the economic costs. This comparison is independent of the method of financing, taxes, and any other costs that may be peculiar to the enterprise owning the project. As mentioned above, the economic analyses have indicated that this project is viable. The objective of a financial analysis, which is the subject of this report, is to determine how the costs associated with a project will be paid, and the cash flows that would result from various alternative courses of action. Interest rates, amortization payment periods, inflation, and taxes are factors that must be considered by a financial analysis that are often not considered in an economic analysis. The financial analyses for this project were conducted according to the general criteria set forth by the APA, 11 Analysis Parameters for the 1984 Fiscal Year.11 A copy of these criteria is included as Appendix B. The alternative financial plans studied are described in Section III of this report. In addition to the alternative financial analyses, a financial analysis for the base case has also been included for comparison purposes. The base case is an estimate of the configuration and costs that would occur in Old Harbor if the exist- ing diesel generator system continues and is expanded as necessary to meet the projected demand over the study period. The costs associated with the proposed project include both hydroelec- tric costs and supplemental diesel costs. Even with the hydroelectric project, it is necessary to maintain sufficient diesel capacity at Old Harbor to meet maximum demands because the hydroelectric project may not meet the full Old. Harbor demands. The electrical demand satisfied by the system would include the village electrical demand, and the use of excess electricity for space heating. Benefits possible from waste heat recovery were not included. This analysis describes the forecasted unit cost of I-2 SF:IEB:AD1:3-I power for the base case and the hydroelectric project for the various financial alternatives studied. In allocating excess energy, it was assumed that the village elec- trical needs would be met first, and, if excess hydroelectric energy remained and sufficient space heating demand existed, then the excess elec- tricity would be sold for space heating use. The space heating energy demand that could be satisfied by the hydroelectric project was included as supplemental revenues from the sale of this power at alternative sales prices. This supplemental revenue was then be applied to decrease the cost of power for Old Harbor. D. REPORT FORMAT The report is presented with a summary, three chapters of text with figures and selected tables, and seven appendices. An effort has been made to make the report more readable by including only key tables with the report text and placing the majority of the tables for the diesel analyses, hydroelectric analyses, and space heating analyses in the respective appendices. Two summary tables for each alternative financial plan studied (one for with fuel escalation and one for without fuel escalation) were prepared and the eight with fuel escalation tables (considered to represent the most realistic case) were included with Section III. The eight without fuel escalation summaries were placed in Appendix G. Appendix A, 11 Project Drawings" Appendix B, "APA Analysis Parameters". and Appendix C, "Economic Analysis Update 11 , were included to provide background material and criteria. I-3 SF:IEB:AD1:3-I SF:IEB:A01:3-C SECTION II GENERAL CRITERIA - through the end of 1988. These prices were then escalated at an annual rate of 9.5 percent for the with real fuel escalation case from January 1989 to the end of the planning period in order to reflect a real fuel cost escalation of three percent annually. For the without real fuel escalation case the inflat i on rate used was 6.5 percent as for all other costs. All costs for both the with and without real fuel escalation cases were then assumed to rema i n constant after the last cost escalation occurs in 2005, the last year of the planning period. The costs were then held constant at the 2005 value for the remainder of the period of economic evaluation through 2035. The interest rate for bond sales and sinking funds was assumed to be 10 percent, representing an average for c urrent market rates. The i nterest rate for state loans was assumed to be f i ve percent. The economic life of the hydroelectr i c project facilities was assumed to be 50 years. The economic project life for diesel eng i nes was assumed to be from 10 to 20 years, depending on the size of the machines. All costs, i ncluding operation, maintenance costs and capital costs were assigned to the year in which they would occur. Capital costs were assumed to be equa l to the sum of the construction costs and interest during construct i on, financing charges, and reserve funds, as applicable. The first debt service payment was shown i n the year following the capital cost. Replacement costs were handled by the use of a sink i ng fund and were assumed to occur over the project study period. C. ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY The energy dema nd and supp l y for the vil l age of Old Ha r bor were deter- mined from AVEC re c ords. This determination was made by the cons ul tants in cooperation with APA. The historical generation records for Januar through December 1983 were used as a base per i od to determine the pat ern of monthly demands as percentages of annual demand. The annual energy demands are shown on Table II-1. The village demands were escalated at 2.5 II -2 SF:I EB:AD1:3-II ; percent annually over the 20 year planning period and then assumed to remain level. The annual supply and distribution of energy over the study period to meet these demands is also shown on Table II-1, indicating the hydroelectric and diesel requirements of the village system and the amount of excess hydroelectric energy available for space heating. Th i s data is also presented graphically on a monthly bas i s in F i gure II-1 for 1986, the first year of hydroelectric generation and for 2005, the last year of the 20-year planning period. These figures illustrate that as the village demand increases over time, 1 ess e x cess energy is avail ab 1 e for space heating and that the need for supplemental d i esel increases D. DIESEL COSTS The costs of d i esel generation were taken from the AVEC recor d s and were estimated in c ooperation with APA. The costs of diese l generation were assumed to i nclude debt service, various operating costs, and fuel oi 1. The cost of the e x isting system was based on AVEC records and was assumed to be the sum of d eprec i ation and interest on the e x isting debt. Interest was assumed as two percent annua l ly on the outstanding principal of a 35 year loan. The outstanding princ ipal for 1984 was $280,707. Depreciation was assumed as si x perc ent of the original plant cost of $299,587 annually. This information was furn i shed in a l etter from APA to DOWL dated May 15, 1984. The cost of diesel replacements was assumed to be $500/kW for equipment only replacements on $1000/kW for plant replacement at 1984 price levels. Additions and repla c ements were assumed to be financed by tax -e x emp t revenue bon d s bear i ng an i nterest rate of 10 percent. The life of these bonds was assumed as 10 y ears for installations l ess than 300 kW, 15 years for 300 kW i nstallations, and 20 y ears for i nstallations greater than 300 kW. The e x isting s y stem at Old Harbor c onsists of two 155 kW units, yielding a firm capacity of 155 kW. An additional 300 kW would be added to II-3 SF:IEB:AD1:3-II the system in 1988, increasing the firm capacity to 310 kW. The 155 kW units would be replaced every 10 years and the 300 kW unit would be - replaced every 15 years. The entire plant would be replaced in 2032. This data was based on a letter from APA to DOWL dated May 15, 1984, and on the ? ~Old Harbor Feasibility Report. No added life was assumed for the diesel engines for the hydroelectric case. The machines would operate for significantly less time under the with hydro case and should have longer lives; however, because of the uncertainty associated with the availability of parts and maintenance, this credit was not considered. The variable operating cost was assumed to be 8.5 cents/kWh for 1984. This is the AVEC system average variable operating cost and includes the costs of lubrication oil, operation, miscellaneous consumables, ordinary maintenance and extraordinary maintenance. The cost of oil was supplied by APA and was $1.52/gallon for 1984 . The rate of consumption was assumed as 9 .6 kWh of generated electricity per ga ll on of fu e l oil. The cost of fuel oil was escalated at 6.5 percent annually through 1988 and then at 9. 5 percent through 2005 for the with fuel escalation case and at 6.5 percent for the without fuel escalation case. E. HYDROELECTRIC COSTS The total construction cost of the hydroelectric project was supplied by APA in a letter to DOWL dated May 15, 1984. The total construction cost includes construction, engineering, construction management, and legal and administrative costs. The construction cost is summarized on Table II-2. The total project cost at January 1985 price leve l s i s $3,990,000. Two replacement costs were considered for the hydroelectric project: the cost of replacing the turbine runner after 25 years of operation, and the cost of replacing the transm i ssion line that wou l d tie the plant to the village distribution system every 30 years. The 30-year economic life of II -4 SF:IEB:AD1:3-II I the transmission lines is based on observation of existing lines. The cost of replacing the runner was estimated as $55,000 at January 1983 price -- levels, and the cost of replacing the lines was estimated as $905,000 at January 1985 price levels. F. OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS The operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for the existing diesel system was assumed a s 8 .5 cents/kWh for 1984. The value represents the average O&M cost for the entire AVEC system and includes the costs of lubrication oil, operation, miscellaneous consumables, ordinary plant maintenance, and extraordinary plant maintenance. The operation of the hydroelectric facilities would be conducted by the same personnel as the diesel p l ant. An additional $5,000 per year was allowed for extra expenses attributable to the hydroelectric project. The O&M costs for both the base case and hydroe 1 ectri c project case were allowed to inflate at 6.5 percent per year over the planning period of 1986 through 2005. G. SPACE HEATING The proposed hydroelectric project will produce significantly more electrical energy than can be used in the village. This energy could be sold for use by electrical space heaters and the revenue could be used to offset the cost of energy to the village. This space heating cost reduction was considered for a range of prices and for both the cases of with real fuel escalation and without real fuel escalation. II-5 SF:IEB:AD1:3-II I \ -------------------------------------------- YEAR 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2035 TABLE 11-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTR I ~; PROJECT ANNUAL ENERGY SUPPLY AND DE~AND JUNE 1984 TOTAL VILLAGE ELECTRICAL DEMAND <MWh ) ( 1) 584. 85" 599. 47 • 614.46 629.82 645.56 661.70 678.24 695.20 712.58 730.40 748.65 767.37 786.56 806.22 826.37 847.03 868.21 889.92 912.16 934.97 958.34 982.30 1006.86 1006.86 TOTAL HYDRO SUPPLY <MWh > (2) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 1310.00 VILLAGE ELECTRICAL DEMAND MET BY HYDRO <MWh) (3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 592.72 605.67 618. 16 630.9 6 643.69 655.68 667.3 2 678.20 689.35 700.79 712.51 724.52 7 36.83 749.45 762.39 775.65 789.24 803.17 816.99 829.49 829.49 VILLAGE ELECTRICAL DE~AND MET BY DIESEL <Miolh) (4) 584.85 599.47 614.46 37. 10 39.90 43.54 47.28 51.51 56.90 63.08 70.46 78.02 85.77 9 3 .71 101.86 110.20 118.76 127.5 3 136.51 145.7 3 155. 17 165.3 1 177.37 1 7 7.37 HYDRO SUPPLY AVAILABLE FOR SPACE HEATING <MWh) (5) 0.00 0.00 0.00 717.28 704.33 691.84 679.04 666.31 654.32 642.68 6 3 1.80 620.65 609.2 1 597.49 585.4 8 573.17 560.55 547.61 534.3 5 520.76 506.83 493.01 480.51 480.51 .I C1 )Energ y consumption for 1983=584.848 MWh from APA letter dated Ma y 15,1984./ Escalated at 2.5% annually through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL l dated May 15,1984 (2 )Hy dro energ y production from August 1982 Old Harbor Feasibilit y Report. (3 )Annual v illage electrical demand met b y h y dro. C4 )Annual v illage electrical demand met by supplemental die s el C5 )Ex cess h y dro generation available for use for space heating. Item TABLE II-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT CONSTRUCTION COST SUMMARY {1985 PRICE LEVELS) Construction Cost (w/o Transmission) Contingencies (20 %) Subtotal Transmission Line CONTRACT COST Engineering Costs Right of Way and Geology Design Construction Management Owners Legal and Administration CONSTRUCTION COST Amount $ 2,107,000 421,000 $ 2,528,000 905,000 $ 3,433,000 64,000 222,000 158,000 133,000 $ 3,990,000 Cawvr Co sf ~ ~---· ~ 1. Village demand includes residential, commercial, and school demands for 1986. 2. Supplemental diesel is portion of village demand in excess of availalbe hydro generation. 3. Values shown are for 1986. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY rOR 1986 FIGURE II-1 ~~~~--~~~~~~--~-L-J--~~~ J'AN FEB 1tAR APR ltW J'lli JtL FIUGI 8EP OCT NOV DEC MONTH ALASKA POHER AUTHORITY FIGURE OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT II-2 ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR 2005 1. Village demand includes residential. commercial. and school demands for 2005. 2. Supplemental diesel is portion of village demand in excess of available hydro generation. 3. Values shown are for 2005. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY tOR 2095 . ~ ~-~-"~•"'-·~-··-~--· """'"''_.......,. ___ "'"•'·"·---~~"-·-·""'"'-~~·"""'•"" FIGURE II-2 SF:IEB:A01:3-C SECTION III FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES · A. GENERAL SECTION II I FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVES The financial alternatives analyzed for the the Old Harbor Hydroelec- tric Project include revenue bonds, state loans, state equity financing, and combinations of revenue bonds and state grants. These alternatives apply only to the financing of the hydroelectric facilities and not to the supplemental diesel. The financing of the supplemental diesel and the base case costs was considered separately, considering both the current cost of power and the APA recommended analysis parameters for 1984. In addition to the various schemes for financing the hydroelectric project, a base case alternative was considered to provide a comparison to the existing situ- ation. The base case, supplemental diesel, and hydroelectric financial alternatives and analysis results are presented below. B. BASE CASE The base case analysis assumes that the hydroelectric project would not be built and that the existing diesel system, expanded for future demand as necessary, would continue to serve as the sole source of electrical energy. The existing system consists of two 155 kW diesel generators, pro- viding a current firm capacity of 155 kW (firm capacity is the system capacity with the largest unit not operable). This capacity was assumed to be increased by the addition of one 300 kW diesel generator in 1988. The schedule of investments for the diesel system is presented as Table III-11. The current debt service on the existing diesel system at Old Harbor is t he sum of two percent annual interest and s ix per cent annua l depr eci a- tion. The existing capacity was assumed to be replaced every ten years with these future replacements financed at an interest rate of 10 percent for 10 years. The 300 kW addition would be replaced every 15 y ears and would be financed at 10 percent for 15 years. he low rate assumed for the cost of existing debt service was based on data supplied by APA. III-1 SF: IEB:AD1:3-III The base case analysis is presented in Tables D-1 and D-2 of Appendix D for the cases of with and without real fuel escalation respectively and is presented in summary form on Tables III-1 through III-8. The cost for 1986 is 31.35¢/KWh for either the with or without fuel escalation case and increases to 143.18¢/KWh for the with real fuel escalation by the end of the planning period in 2005. The corresponding unit value for 2005 without fuel escalation is 107.31¢/KWh. C. SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL The supplemental diesel costs were assumed to be the same as the base case diesel costs except that the energy demand and associated variable fuel oil and maintenance costs would apply only to the portion of village energy demand not met by the hydroelectric project. These diesel costs were discussed in Section II of this report. The detailed supplemental diesel analysis, which is the same to all financial plans, is presented in Appendix D as Tables D-3 and D-4 for the cases of with and without fuel escalation, respectively. The summarized cost is then presented in Tables III-1 through III-8 for each of the indi- vidual financial alternatives studied. The unit cost of supplemental diesel for 1986, averaged over the annual village demand and assuming real fuel escalation, would be 5.37¢/kWh; this cost escalates to 38.40¢/kWh by 2005. If the effects of fuel escalation are neglected, the cost of power for 1986 would be 5.37¢/kWh, escalating to 32.09¢/kWh by 2005. The cost of supplemental diesel is the component of the total cost not included in the hydroelectric financing. D. SPACE HEATING At some times of the year, the proposed hydroelectric project would produce electrical demand. This electricity could be used for space heat-· ing or could be sold to any other use that might exit. For purposes of this analysis, the value of this electricity was assumed to be a percentage of the avoided cost of fuel oil that it could replace. This analysis is presented as Tables F-1 and F-2 in Appendix F for the cases of with and III-2 SF:IEB:AD1:3-III without fuel escalation~ respectively. The potential savings is the indi- cated percentage of the avoided cost of fuel distributed over the entire village demand. The existence of heating demand and the cost of distribut- ing and metering this power were not considered; this data is presented to indicate a very conservative, low value for this power if a use for the power can be estab 1 i shed. The potentia 1 savings at 50 percent of the avoided cost of fuel oil would be 3.47¢/kWh in 1986 and would escalate to 7.71¢/kWh by 2005 for the with fuel escalation case and 4.81¢/kWh for the without fuel escalation case. E. FINANCIAL PLANS Using the criteria and assumptions previously presented, alternative financial plans were analyzed. A description and results of the analysis for each alternative studied are presented below. Camp 1 ete ana lyses are presented in this report for each alternative with and without real fuel escalation. In addition, the results of each of these analyses may be modified for the inclusion of excess energy sales to space heating at selling prices of 25%, 50%, and 75% of avoided cost. A total of six separate results for each of the eight financial alternatives studied then results. To simplify the following discussion of results, the with real fuel escalation and without space heating conditions are used for discussion examples since this combination is considered to be the most probable future scenario. This is because most economists foresee long term real fuel escalation occurring in excess of general inflation. Nevertheless, data is presented in the various tables for the without real fuel escala- tion case and the potential space heating credit if results for these alternatives are desired. Financial summaries for each of the alternatives studied are included at the end of this section as Table III-1 through III-8 (with real fuel escalation) and in Appendix G as Tables G-1 through G-9 (without real fuel escalation). All alternatives are summarized in Table III-9 (with real I II-3 SF:IEB:AD1:3-III fuel escalation) and Table III-10 {without real fuel escalation). Both Table III-9 and Table Ill-10 also include potential space heating savings. 1. ALTERNATIVE I-A: 100% REVENUE BONDS Under this alternative, the entire hydroelectric cost would be paid from the sa 1 e of tax-exempt revenue bonds bearing an interest rate of 10 percent for 35 years. The total bond sale would include the direct construction costs, an allowance of 10 percent for interest during con- struction, an allowance of 3.75 percent for financing fees, and a reserve fund equal to 110 percent of one year's debt service. The resulting total . bond size would be $5,122,900. Table 111-1 shows the total annual unit cost of this alternative, including both supplemental diesel and hydro- electric costs. As shown in Table 111-1, the unit energy cost of Alterna- tive I-A for 1986 would be 85.12¢/kWh and would escalate to 90.06¢/kWh by the year 2005. Space heating credits at 50% avoided cost would decrease these prices to 81.65¢/kWh and 82.35¢/kWh respectively. The cost of power for Alternative I-A would be greater than the cost of Base Case power until 1998. 2. ALTERNATIVE I-8: 100% REVENUE BONDS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS Under this alternative, the project would be funded 100% by revenue bonds, as for Alternative I-A; however, the debt service payments would be made on a graduated basis. The debt service for 1986 would be reduced to a level that would make the unit cost of energy for that year the same for the base case and the hydroelectric plus supplemental diesel case. The debt service would then be increased at a maximum rate of 9.5 percent (the same rate of increase of fuel with inflation and escalation}, until a uni- form payment cou 1 d be made for the remainder of the 35 years without exceeding the 9.5 percent increase. This alternative is shown on Table III-2. The total cost of energy for 1986 would be 31.35¢/kWh (equal to the base case cost) with or without fuel escalation, but consideration of the space heating credit at 50% avoided cost would decrease this figure by 3.47¢/kWh to 27.88¢/kWh. II I-4 SF:IEB:AD1:3-III 3. ALTERNATIVE II-A: 50% REVENUE BONDS/50% STATE GRANT This alternative is similar to Alternative I-A, but only 50 percent of the direct construction cost would be borne by the power users. The results of the analyses of this Alternative are presented as Table III-3. The remaining 50 percent of the project cost would be paid by State assis- tance. The cost of power for this alternative in 1986 would be 47.59¢/kWh or 44.12¢/kWh with the space heating credit at 50% of avoided cost. The cost would increase to 66.58¢/kWh or 58.87¢/kWh with the space heating credit at 50% of avoided cost by 2005. 4. ALTERNATIVE II-8: 40% REVENUE BONOS/60% STATE GRANT The project would be financed using tax-exempt revenue bonds for 40 percent of the construct ion cost and a state grant for the remaining 60 percent. The results of this analysis are shown in Tables III-4. The 1986 cost of power for this alternative would be 40.08¢/kWh or 36.61¢/kWh with space heating credits at 50% avoided cost, increasing in 2005 to 61.88¢/kWh or 54.17¢/kWh space heating credits at 50 percent avoided cost. 5. ALTERNATIVE II-C: 36.4% REVENUE BONOS/63.6% STATE GRANT The project would be financed using a combination of tax-exempt revenue bonds and a state grant. The bond sale would be sized in such a manner that the unit cost of power in 1986 would be the same for the base case and the hydroelectric plus supplemental diesel case, assuming fuel escala- tion. The remainder of the capita 1 cost (not inc 1 uded in the bond sa 1 e) would be paid by a state grant. The results of this analysis are shown in Table III-5. The unit cost of power for 1986 would be 31.35¢/kWh increas- ing to 56.42¢/kWh in 2005. 6. ALTERNATIVE III-A: STATE LOAN Under this alternative, the project would be financed by a state loan bearing an interest rate of five percent for 35 years. Interest during construction and a reserve fund would not be considered for this alterna- I II-5 SF:IEB:AD1:3-III tive. The results of this analysis are shown on Table III-6. The 1986 cost of power for this alternative would be 48.75¢/kWh, increasing to 67.30¢/kWh in 2005. 7. ALTERNATIVE III-B: STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT The project would be financed by a state loan at an interest rate of five percent as above; however, principal and interest payments would be deferred on the debt for 10 years, follows by 25 years of fully amortized debt service. This alternative is shown in Table III-7. The 1986 unit cost of power for this alternative would be 10.06¢/KWh increasing to . 23.06¢/KWh in 1995 and more than tripling to 80.89¢/kWh in the following year, 1996, when the 10-year deferral period ends. 8. ALTERNATIVE IV: STATE EQUITY FINANCING The state would pay the entire capital cost of the project and would receive an annual payment equal to five percent of the capital cost. The costs of operation, maintenance, and replacement would be paid from this five percent payment and the remainder of the five percent would be the return on investment to the state. The cash flow for this situation is shown in Table III-8. The 1986 unit cost of energy, including fuel escala- tion, would be 37.05¢/kWh increasing in 2005 to 58.27¢/kWh. III-6 SF:IEB:A01:3-III TABLE II I-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-A WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 --- YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) < c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 79.74 85.12 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 77.88 83.33 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 76.06 86.00 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 74.29 84.32 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 10.19 72.56 82.75 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 70.88 81.33 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 69.25 86.54 2. 19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 67.66 85.28 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 66.11 84.16 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 64.60 83.17 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 63.14 82.33 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 61.71 81.65 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 60.32 80.31 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 58.98 78.73 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 20.97 57.66 78.63 3.16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 56.39 78.74 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116.26 32.71 55.15 87.87 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 53.95 88.22 3.56 7. 13 10.69 2004 133.38 36.10 52.79 88.89 3.70 7.41 11.11 2005 143. 18 38.40 51.65 90.06 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143.16 38.39 51.65 90.04 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143.14 38.37 51.65 90.02 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143. 12 38.35 51.65 90.00 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143. 10 38.33 51.65 89.98 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 51.65 89.96 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143.06 38.29 51.65 89.94 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40.10 51.65 91.75 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146.18 41.40 51.65 93.06 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146. 18 41.40 25.54 66.94 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146.18 41.40 25.54 66.94 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 <l>See Table D-1 <2>See Table D-3 <3>See Table E-1 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5>Potent i al space h~tating credit at 25% a~)O i ded cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE III-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-B WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 ··-·- YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) < c /kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) <5> (6) (7) --------------------------------------------- --------- ---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 28.25 33.70 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 30.67 40.61 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 33.24 43.27 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 10.19 35.97 46.16 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 38.87 49.32 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 41.96 59.25 2. 19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 45.25 62.87 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 48.74 66.79 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 52.47 71.03 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 56.43 75.63 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 60.65 80.59 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 65. 15 85.14 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 69.95 89.70 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 . 20. 97 75.06 96.02 3. 16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 80.50 102.85 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116.26 32.71 86.31 119.02 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 92.50 126.77 3.56 7. 13 10.69 2004 133.38 36.10 99.10 135.21 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143.18 38.40 106.15 144.55 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143.16 38.39 110.64 149.02 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143. 14 38.37 110.64 149.00 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143. 12 38.35 110.64 148.98 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143.10 38.33 110.64 148.96 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 110.64 148.94 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143,06 38.29 110.64 148.92 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40.10 110.64 150.74 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146.18 41.40 95.16 136.56 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146.18 41.40 95. 16 136.56 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146.18 41.40 95.16 136.56 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 ... 2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 <l>See Table D-1 <2)See Table D-3 <3>See Table E-2 (4)Sum of' hydro and su~~lemental diesel cost.s. <5>Potent i al s~ace heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <6>Potential s~ace heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <?>Potential s~ace heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE III-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I I-A WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 '- YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh> < c /kWh> (c/kWh> (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 42.21 47.59 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 41.26 46.72 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 40.34 50.27 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 39.44 49.47 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 10. 19 38.56 48.75 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 37.71 48. 16 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 36.89 54.17 2. 19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 36.08 53.71 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 35.31 53.35 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 34.55 53.12 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 33.82 53.01 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 33.11 53.05 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 32.42 52.40 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 31.75 51.50 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 20.97 31. 10 52.07 3. 16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 30.48 52.83 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116.26 32.71 29.87 62.59 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 29.29 63.55 3.56 7. 13 10.69 2004 133.38 36.10 28.72 64.82 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143.18 38.40 28.18 66.58 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143.16 38.39 28.18 66.56 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143. 14 38.37 28.18 66.54 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143. 12 38.35 28.18 66.52 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143. 10 38.33 28.18 66.50 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 28.18 66.48 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143.06 38.29 28.18 66.46 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40. 10 28.18 68.28 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146. 18 41.40 28.18 6'3, 58 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146,18 41.40 15. 12 56.52 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146.18 41.40 15. 12 56.52 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146. 18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 <1>See Table D-1 <2>See Table D-3 (3)See Table E-3 <4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Potent i al space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <6>Potential space heating credit at 50% a1)0 i ded cost.See Tab 1 e F-1. (?)Potential space heating credit at 75~~ avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE III-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-B WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 -·- YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0,00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 34.71 40.08 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 33.94 39.39 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 33.19 43.13 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 32.47 42.50 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 10. 19 31.76 41.95 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 31.08 41.53 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 30.41 47.70 2. 19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 29.77 47.39 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 29. 15 47.19 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 28.54 47. 11 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 27.95 47.15 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 27.39 47.32 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 26.84 46.82 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 26.30 46.06 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 20.97 25.79 46.76 3. 16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 25.29 47.65 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116.26 32.71 24.82 57.53 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 24.35 58.62 3.56 7. 13 10.69 2004 133.38 36.10 23.91 60.01 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143.18 38.40 23.48 61.88 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143.16 38.39 23.48 61.87 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143.14 38.37 23.48 61.85 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143. 12 38.35 23.48 61.83 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143.10 38.33 23.48 61.81 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 23.48 61. 79 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143.06 38.29 23.48 61.77 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40.10 23.48 63.58 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146.18 41.40 23.48 64.88 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146. 18 41.40 13.03 54.44 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146. 18 41.40 13.03 54.44 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 (l)See Table D-1 <2>See Table D-3 (3)See Table E-4 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5>Potential space heating credit at 25% a~)oided cost.See Table F-1. <6>Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See T.!:i.b 1 e F-1. TABLE III-5 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-C WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 .. YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh> (c/kWh> <c /kWh) (c/kWh) <c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) --------- --------------------------------------------- ---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 25.42 30.87 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 24.88 34.82 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 24.36 34.39 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 10. 19 23.85 34.04 1.99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 23.36 33.81 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 22.88 40.17 2. 19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 22.42 40.04 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 21.98 40.02 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 21.55 40. 11 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 21. 13 40.32 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 20.73 40.67 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 20.34 40.32 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 19.97 39.72 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 20.97 19.61 40.58 3. 16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 19.26 41.61 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116.26 32.71 18.93 51.65 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 18.61 52.88 3.56 7.13 10.69 2004 133.38 36. 10 18.31 54.41 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143. 18 38.40 18.02 56.42 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143. 16 38.39 18.02 56.40 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143. 14 38.37 18.02 56.38 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143. 12 38.35 18.02 56.36 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143.10 38.33 18.02 56.34 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 18.02 56.32 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143.06 38.29 18.02 56.30 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40.10 18.02 58.12 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146.18 41.40 18.02 59.42 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146. 18 41.40 10.61 52.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146.18 41.40 10.61 52.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146. 18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 <1>See Table D-1 <2>See Table D-3 (3)See Table E-5 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided •: ost. See Table F-1. TABLE III-6 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-A WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUP PL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT ( c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) < c /kWh) (C/kWh) < c /kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ------------------------------------ ---------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 43.37 48.75 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 42.39 47.85 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 41.44 51.38 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 40.51 50.54 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 10. 19 39.61 49.80 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 38.73 49.18 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 37.88 55.17 2. 19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 37.06 54.68 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 36.26 54.30 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 35.48 54.04 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 34.72 53.92 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 33.99 53.93 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 33.28 53.26 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 32.59 52.34 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 20.97 31.92 52.89 3. 16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 31.28 53.63 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116.26 32.71 30.65 63.37 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 30.05 64.32 3.56 7. 13 10.69 2004 133.38 36.10 29.46 65.57 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143.18 38.40 28.90 67.30 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143.16 38.39 28.90 67.28 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143.14 38.37 28.90 67.27 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143.12 38.35 28.90 67.25 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143.10 38.33 28.90 67.23 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 28.90 67.21 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143.06 38.29 28.90 67.19 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40.10 28.90 69.00 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146.18 41.40 28.90 70.30 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146.18 41.40 28.90 70.30 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146.18 41.40 28.90 70.30 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146. 18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 (!)See Table D-1 <2)See Table D-3 (3)See Table E-6 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoidE'd cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <7>Potent i al space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See TablE' F-1. TABLE III-7 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-B WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 .. YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) ( c/k Wh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 4.68 10.06 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 4.65 10. 10 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39. 18 9.94 4.61 14.55 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 4.58 14.62 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 10.19 4.56 14.75 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 4.54 14.99 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 4.52 21.81 2. 19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 4.51 22.13 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 4.50 22.55 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 4.50 23.06 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 61.69 80.89 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 60.30 80.24 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 58.95 78.94 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 57.64 77.39 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 20.97 56.36 77.33 3. 16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 55.12 77.47 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116.26 32.71 53.91 86.63 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 52.74 87.01 3.56 7. 13 10.69 2004 133.38 36. 10 51.60 87.70 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143.18 38.40 50.50 88.90 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143. 16 38.39 50.50 88.88 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143. 14 38.37 50.50 88.86 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143. 12 38.35 50.50 88.85 3.86 7.71 11. 57 2009 143.10 38.33 50.50 88.83 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 50.50 88.81 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143.06 38.29 50.50 88.79 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40.10 50.50 90.60 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146. 18 41.40 50.50 91.90 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146. 18 41.40 50.50 91.90 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146. 18 41.40 50.50 91.90 3.86 7.71 11. 57 2021 146.18 41.40 4.70 46.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161.08 56.31 4.70 61.01 3.86 7.71 11.57 <1>See Table D-1 <2>Se.-Table D-3 (3)See Table E-7 <4>Sum of hydro and :supp 1 ement a 1 diesel costs. (5)Potent i al space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% a'v•o i ded cost.See Table F-1. <?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE III-8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE IV WITH REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 .. YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh> 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ------------------------------------ ------------------ ---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 31.68 37.05 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 30.90 36.36 1.77 3.54 5.31 1988 39. 18 9.94 30. 15 40.09 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.62 10.03 29.41 39.45 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 1 e. 19 28.70 38.88 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 10.45 28.00 38.45 2.08 4. 17 6.25 1992 56.90 17.29 27.31 44.60 2.19 4.37 6.56 1993 60.24 17.62 26.65 44.27 2.29 4.59 6.88 1994 63.92 18.05 26.00 44.04 2.41 4.82 7.22 1995 67.96 18.57 25.36 43.93 2.53 5.05 7.58 1996 72.39 19.20 24.75 43.94 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77.25 19.94 24.14 44.08 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 19.98 23.55 43.54 2.90 5.79 8.69 1999 86.34 19.75 22.98 42.73 3.03 6.05 9.08 2000 92.76 20.97 22.42 43.39 3. 16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 22.35 21.87 44.22 3.29 6.58 9.88 2002 116. 26 32.71 21.34 54.05 3.43 6.86 10.28 2003 124.44 34.27 20.82 55.08 3.56 7. 13 10.69 2004 133.38 36.10 20.31 56.41 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143. 18 38.40 19.81 58.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2006 143. 16 38.39 19.81 58.20 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143.14 38.37 19.81 58.18 3.86 7.71 11.57 2008 143.12 38.35 19.81 58.16 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143.10 38.33 19.81 58.14 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 38.31 19.81 58.12 3.86 7.71 11.57 2011 143.06 38.29 19.81 58.10 3.86 7.71 11.57 2012 144.88 40.10 19.81 59.92 3.86 7.71 11.57 2018 146. 18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146. 18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146.18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146.18 41.40 19.81 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161. 08 56.31 19.81 76.12 3.86 7.71 11.57 <l>See Table D-1 <2>See Table D-3 <3>See Table E-8 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5>Potentia1 space heating credit at 25% avoided co:st.See Table F-1. (6)Potentia1 :space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (7)Potent i al :space heating credit at 75% avoided co:st.See Table F-1. TABLE III-9 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT UNIT COSTS OF ENERGY: W/ REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1994 100% REVENUE REVENUE BONDS AND STATE LOANS STATE BONDS STATE GRANTS EQUITY SAVINGS FROM ENERGY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------SALES TO SPACE HEAT! NG YEAR BASE I-A I-B II-A I I-B II-C III-A I 11-B IV 25% 50% 75% CASE 100% 100% 50%/511% 40%/60% 43%/57% (C/kWh) (c/kWh> (C/kWh) <c kWh) (C/kWh) ( c /kWh) < c /kWh> < c /kWh) (c/kWh> <C•nts/kWh) <C•nts/kWh> <C•nts/kWh> (1) <2> (3) (4) <5> (6) en <8) <9) ( 10) ( 11) ( 12) ---------------------------- ------- ------------------------------------------------------1993 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 e.ee e.ee e.ee 1994 28.31 28.31 28.31 29.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 e.0e 0.00 e.e0 1985 29.78 29.79 29.7. 29.78 29.79 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 e.e0 0.00 e.e0 . 1986 31.35 85.12 31 5 47.59 40.88 31.35 48.75 10.06 37.05 1.73 3.47 5.28 1997 33.03 83.33 3 .78 46.72 39.39 30.87 47.85 10.18 36.36 t. 77 3.54 5.31 1998 39.18 86,00 0.61 50.27 43.13 34.82 51.38 14.55 40.89 1. 91 3,61 5.42 1989 41.62 84.32 43.27 49.47 42.50 34.39 58.!54 14,62 39.45 1. 89 3.79 5.68 1990 44.28 82.75 46.16 48.75 41.95 34.04 49.80 14.75 38.98 1. 99 3.97 5.96 1991 47.21 81.33 49.32 49.16 41.53 33.91 49.18 14.99 39.45 2.08 4.17 6.25 1992 56.90 96.54 59.25 !54.17 47.70 40.17 55.17 21.81 44.60 2.19 4.37 6,56 1993 68.24 85.29 62.87 53.71 47.39 40.04 54.68 22.13 44.27 2.29 4.59 6.89 1994 63.92 94. 16 66.79 !53.35 47.19 48.02 54.30 22.55 44.04 2.41 4.92 7.22 1995 67.96 83.17 71.03 53.12 47.11 48.11 !54.84 23.06 43.93 2.53 5,05 7.59 1996 72.39 92.33 75.63 53.01 47. 1 !5 40.32 53.92 90.99 43.94 2.65 5.29 7.94 1997 77,25 91.65 90.59 53.05 47.32 40.67 53.93 80.24 44.08 2.77 5.54 8.31 1998 81.75 90.31 85.14 52.40 46.92 40.32 53.26 79.94 43.54 2.98 5.79 8.69 1999 96.34 79.73 89.70 51.50 46.06 39.72 52.34 77.39 42.73 3.03 6.85 9,09 2000 92.76 78.63 96.02 52.07 46.76 48.58 52.89 77.33 43.39 3.16 6.32 9.48 2001 99.79 78.74 102.85 52.83 47.65 41.61 53.63 77.47 44,22 3.29 6.58 9.89 2002 116. 26 87.97 119.02 62.59 57.53 51.65 63.37 96.63 54.05 3.43 6,96 10.29 2803 124.44 99.22 126.77 63.55 58.62 52.88 64.32 87.01 55.08 3,56 7.13 10.69 2004 133.38 88.89 135.21 64.92 60,01 54.41 65.57 87,70 56,41 3.70 7.41 11. 11 2005 143.19 98,86 144.55 66.59 61.88 56.42 67.30 98.90 58.22 3.96 7.71 11.57 2006 143.16 90,04 149.02 66.56 61.87 56.40 67.29 89,98 58.20 3.86 7.71 11.57 2007 143.14 90.02 149.00 66.54 61.85 56.39 67.27 89.86 58.18 3.96 7.71 11.57 2008 143.12 90.00 148.98 66.52 61.83 56.36 67.25 99.95 58.16 3.86 7.71 11.57 2009 143.10 89.99 148.96 66.50 61.81 56.34 67.23 88.83 58.14 3.86 7.71 11.57 2010 143.08 89.96 148.94 66.48 61.79 56.32 67.21 98.81 59.12 3.96 7,71 11.57 2011 143,06 89.94 149.92 66.46 61.77 56.30 67.19 88.79 ~8.18 3.96 7,71 11.57 2012 144.88 91.75 150.74 69.28 63.58 58.12 69.00 90.60 59.92 3.86 7.71 11.57 2013 144,96 91.73 150.72 68.26 63.56 59.10 69.98 90.~8 59.90 3.86 7,71 11.57 2018 146.18 93.06 136.56 69.59 64.98 59.42 70.30 91.90 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2019 146. 18 66.94 136.56 56.52 54.44 52.01 70.30 91.90 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2020 146.18 66.94 136.56 56.52 54.44 52.01 70.30 91.90 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2021 146.19 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 46.10 61.22 3.86 7.71 11.57 2035 161. 08 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 61.01 76. 12 3.86 7.71 11.57 <1>S•• Tabl• D-1 <2>S•• Tabl• D-3 and E-1.Sum or hydro and suppll'mental diesel costs. <3>Se• Table D-3 and E-2.Sutn or hydro and suppl•mental di•s•l costs. <4>s .... Tabh D-3 and E-3.Sulll or hydro and suppl•••ntal diesel costs. (5)$ .... Tab I• D-3 and E-4,Sum or hydro and supp le1unt al dies• I costs. <6>See T•bh D-3 and E-5.Sum or hydro and supplemental diest'l costs. '• <7>St>e Tablt> D-3 •nd E-6,Sum or hydro and supplt>mental di•s•l costs. <8>S•• T&bl• D-3 and E-7.Sum or hydro •nd suppl•mental diest>l costs. <9>S•• Tabh D-3 and E-8.Sum or hydro •nd supplem•ntal di•St'l costs. < 10>Pot•nt i al savingS" rrom space heating It 2')% avoided cost.See Table F-1. F- TABLE 111-10 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FIHAHCIAL AHALYSIS SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT UHIT COSTS OF EHERGY:W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUHE 1984 100% REVEHUE REVEHUE BOHDS AND STATE LOAHS STATE BOHDS STATE GRAHTS EQUITY SAVIHGS FROM EHERGY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------SALES TO SPACE HEATIHG YEAR BASE I-A 1-B II-A 11-B 11-C I I I -A III-B IV 25% 50% 75% CASE 100% 100% 50%/50% 40%/60% 43%/57% (c/klolh) < c /kWh) (<:/kWh> (C/kWh) (c/kWh) (C/kWh) (<:/kWh) (<:/kWh) (C/kWh) (Cents/kWh) (Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh) (1) (2) (3) <4) <5) (6) (7) <8) (9) (10) <11) <12) ------------------------------------------___ .,.. ___ ------------------------------------------------------ 1983 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 28.31 28. 31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 28.31 0.00 0.00 e.0e 1985 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 85.12 31.35 47.59 40.08 31.35 48.75 10.06 37.05 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 83.33 33.70 46.72 39.39 30.87 47.85 10.10 36.36 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 86.00 40.61 50.27 43.13 34.82 51.38 14.55 40.09 1.81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 84.28 43.23 49.43 42.46 34.35 50.50 14.57 39.40 1. 84 3,68 5.53 1990 42.96 82.65 46.06 48.65 41.85 33.94 49.70 14.65 38.79 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 81.16 49.15 47.99 41.36 33.63 49.01 14.82 38.27 1.92 3.83 5. 75 1992 53.82 86.27 58.98 53.91 47.44 39.90 54.91 21.55 44.34 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 84.89 62.48 53.32 47.00 39.65 54.29 21.74 43,88 2.00 3,99 5.99 1994 58.53 83.61 66.24 52.80 46.64 39,47 53.75 22.00 43.50 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61.17 82.43 70.29 52.38 46.37 39.37 53.30 22.32 43.19 2.08 4. 16 6,24 1996 64,01 81.36 74.65 52.04 46.17 39.35 52.94 79.91 42.96 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 80.39 79.34 51.79 46.07 39.41 52.67 78.99 42.82 2. 16 4,31 6,47 1998 69.51 78.71 83.54 50,81 45.23 38.73 51.67 77.34 41.94 2.19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 76.74 87.71 49.51 44.07 37.73 50.35 75.40 40.74 2.23 4.46 6. 6'1 2000 75.61 76. 17 93.57 49.61 44.30 38.12 50.43 74.87 40.93 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 75.74 99.85 49.82 44.64 38.61 50.62 74.46 41.22 2.29 4.59 6,88 2002 92.88 84.22 115.38 58.94 53.89 48.00 59.72 82.98 50.41 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 83.83 122.38 59.17 54.24 48.50 59.93 82.62 50.70 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102.16 83.63 129.95 59.57 54.76 49.16 60.31 82.45 51. 16 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 83.74 138.23 60.26 55.57 50.10 60.99 82.58 51.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 83.72 142.70 60.24 55.55 50.08 60.97 82.57 51.88 2.40 4.81 7,21 2007 107.28 83.70 142.68 60.22 55.53 50.07 60.95 82.55 51.86 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 83.68 142.67 60.20 55.51 50.05 60.93 82.53 51.84 2.40 4.81 7.21 200.9 107.24 83.66 142.65 60.19 55.49 50.03 60.91 82.51 51.82 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 83.64 142.63 60.17 55.47 50.01 60.89 82.49 51.80 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 83.62 142.61 60. 15 55.45 49.99 60.87 82.47 51.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 85.44 144.42 61.96 57.27 51.80 62.68 84.28 53.60 2.40 4.81 7.21 2013 108.99 85.42 144.40 61.94 57.24 51.78 62.66 84.26 53.58 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 86.74 130.25 63.26 58.57 53. 10 63,99 85.58 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 60.62 130.25 50.20 48.12 45.70 63.99 85.58 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 60.62 130.25 50.20 48.12 45.70 63.99 85.58 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 39.78 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 54.69 69.80 2.40 4.81 7,21 <1 )Su T .lb 1• D-2 <2>Su T.lbh D-4 •nd E-1. Sum of hydro .lnd supple111•ntal dies•l costs. <3>S•e T.lble D-4 .lnd E-2.Sulll or hydro •nd supplem•ntal di•sel costs • <4>Se• Table D-4 and E-3.Sum or hydro .lnd supp 1 ement a 1 di•s•l costs. <5>See Table D-4 and E-4.Sum or hydro and supp 1 ement a 1 diesel costs. <6>See T•ble D-4 and E-5.Sum or hydro and supple111•ntal diesel costs. <7>Su• T.lble D-4 &nd E-6.Sum of hydro &nd st,~pple~~tental diesel costs. <8>See T&ble D-4 &nd E-7.Sum of hydro and St,~pplemental diesel COStS • <9>Su Tabh D-4 &nd E-8.Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. < 10)F'otent 1al sauln<;~s fro II! !>pace heating @ 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. t 11 "\P'""t •Mt. i a1 ~ ~\Jl nos from space heating@ 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE III-11 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY AND HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT SCHEDULE OF INVESTMENTS DIESEL GENERATION Year ReQlacements Additions 1988 1992 2002 2002 2012 2017 2022 2032 2032 SF:IEB:A01:3-III-2 300 2 X 155 kW 2 X 155 kW 300 kW 2 X 155 kW 300 kW 2 X 155 kW 2 X 155 kW 300 kW Cost {$12000} 218.9 291.0 546.2 528.5 645.6 528.5 645.6 645.6 528.5 .r. 3.: ~ ' (/) t-z w u t- (J) 0 u >-~ a: w z w 1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation. 2. Alternative II-A is 50 % tax-exempt revenue bonds and 50 % state grants. 3. Alternative li-B is 40 % tax-exemp t revenue bonds and 60 % state grant. 4. Alternative II-C is 43.1% tax-exempt revenue bonds and 56.9 % state grant. 5. Alternative III-A is State Loan at 5%. 6. . Alternat i ve IV is State Equity Fi nanc i ng with 5% return. 7. All hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental d i ese l and adjustment for energy sold to space heating. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ FUEL ESCALATION,W/ SPACE HEATING HEATING CREDIT @ 50% AVOIDED COST FIGURE III-1 ..c. 3:: ~ ' (J) 1-z w u 1- (J) 0 u >-t::J ct w z w YEAR 1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation. 2. Alternative I-A is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds. 3. Alternative I-8 is 100% tax-exempt revenue bonds with graduated repayment schedule. 4. Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%. 5. Alternative III-8 is State Loan at 5% with payments deferred for 10 years. 6. All hydro alternatives include cost of supplemental diesel and adjustment for energy sold to space heating. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ FUEL ESCALATION,W/ SPACE HEATING HEATING CREDIT @ 50~ AVOIDED COST FIGURE III-2 ..r. 110 3: ..:;t "-1BB tn 1-z w u ._, 1- f.n ' 0 u 70 -· ---~-- >- (!} 0:: w z w YEAR 1. Costs shown include general inflation. 2. Costs shown with and without real fuel escalation. 3. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%. 4. Hydro alternative includes cost of supplemental diesel and adjustment for energy sold to space heating. ALASKA POHER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT H/ AND W/0 FUEL ESCALATION HEATING CREDIT @ 50~ AVOIDED COST FIGURE III-3 ._, t- (f) 0 u >-(!J ~ w z w ----··-.. ·i··-· -----·---· ........ __ ' I loV ~ HEATING CREDIT 1 -·-·----!.-.----------·--L------ 1. Costs shown include general inflation and real fuel escalation. 2. Hydro Alternative III-A is State Loan, 35 years at 5%. 3. Hydro alternative includes cost of supplemental diesel. 4. Hydro alternative shown with and without adjustment for energy sold to space heating. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT W/ rUEL ESCALATION FIGURE III-4 W/ & W/0 HEATING CREDIT 8 50% AVOIDED COST SF:IEB:A01:3-C APPENDIX A PROJECT DRAWINGS ~ # PROJECT PLAN / 0 I 4 I 2 I ~~ I 1-t MILES LOCATION MAP NOT TO SCALE , VICINITY MAP NOT TO SCALE / STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ANCHORAGE ALAsKA OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT OOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE ALASKA GENERAL PLAN TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY SAN FRANOSCO CALIFORNIA ___ML_ 358 2 ::::J .... ~ ... 354 .... !!! 350 PREFABRICATED INTAKE STRUCTURE ----- ·----- PLAN SCALE I ELEVATION SCALE I 4 4 +I U> ... NEOPRENE SEAL; !\ II SYMM ABOUT t-.J I: 1 II ot_GATE I CROSS BRACE_______.- u SYMM ABO TIt; GATE ,I -r- I 1\ I 3 0 BACK BRACE W 6 x 9 ( 2 REQUIRED PER 10 SECTION) SECTION A SCALE I 2 0 SECTION 8 SCALE I I 0 CONCRETE APRON INLET STRUCTURE WALL --'..-- L 2 5 x 2 CONNECTION SUPPORT ~ INLET STRUCTURE WALL + ,: I MAIN BRACE w 6 X g---..... ~ ... I "' -- I ++ + I t-+ I C:ROSS BRACE ST 2 5 X 5) ~ • 1- + I : I I ,I r PIN SUPPORT 4 3 0 t:1T: y 9It"' 2 0 6 SECTION C SCALE I I 0 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ANCHORAGE ALASKA OLD HARBOR HYDROElECTRIC PROJIECT DIVERSION FACIUTIES PLAN ELEVATION AND SECTIONS DOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE ALASKA TUDOR ENGINEERING COMPANY SAN FRAitCISCO CALIFOIINA PLATEn / .... UJ UJ lL z 0 ;::: ~ UJ ...J UJ 20 STATION FEET I lj SECTION A I I' I PLAN SCALE 1 IOO PROFILE OF ALE IOO HORIZ ACCESS ROAD sc PENSTOCK I 0 24 40 VERT SCALE 1 IOO RING GIRDER -24\1 STEEL PIPE .... ' ', ....---NATURA <, SE L GROUND (TALUS) ' LECT ROADBED FILL .... ... TYPE I-SIDEHILL (TALUS) BACKFILLED TRENCH -- OD+2 0 (TYP) TYPE m-SIDE HILL (SOIL) STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA POWE ANCHORAGER AUTHORITY OLD HARBO PENSTOCK OOWL E ANCHOR~~kNEERS ALASKA ~ ALASKA R HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT -PLAN PROFILE A ND DETAILS TUDOR E NGINEE SAN FRANC RING COMPANY ISCO CAUFORNIA PLATE l.c 3x3x! (TO MATCH FABRICATED WIER NOT SHOWN) ~8 8-0 SECTION A .....,b--J,- TRASH RACK I 6 PIPE STUD FABRICATED wl INLET STRUCTURE I -/<-- 1 \ ./ PENSTOCK ~"" E- (GATE NOT SHOWN) l•~ ------ • "'• PRE FABRICATED INLET STRUCTURE SCALE I 2. i -r- I 0 I <D I I ---SL UICE GATE ~ .~ SECTION B I 3x3x 4 BRACE SLUICEWAY (GATE NOT SHOWN) SECTION C NOTES (I) ALL PLATES i MILD STEEL (A570) (2) ALL EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SURFACES OF DIVERSION WEIR HEADWORKS AND SEDIMENT BASIN STRUCTURES TO BE SAND BLASTED AND ZINC SPRAYED FINAL COAT TO BE ZINC COMA!ITIBLE PAINT STATION SERVICE H II SYNCHRONOUS GENERATOR kVA PF 09 RPM 3 f/> GENERATOR TO DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 3 TRANSFORMER 12. 470/4BOV GENERATOR BREAKER I 1: '~'"' '"~ 3 I ,I PPT ~~ 41 E ~--<,~t----+---, II ,---L---'----, I !I VOLTAGE REGULATOR ELECTRIC ONE-LINE DIAGRAM rl NTS II 0 20 40 60 80 !1100 120 SCALE I 20 [I ,I 'I I I SYNCHRONIZING STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ANCHORAGE ALASKA OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT DOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE ALASKA INLET STRUCTURE AND ONE LINE DIAGRAM TUDOR ENGINEERING CO!oFANY SAN FRANCISCO CAUFORHIA PLATE ISl \ GENERAL PLAN SCALE I 20 TURBINE SPEED INCREASER -------.~~~--~----~A~--------------~ .• TAILRACE PROFILE-SECTION A SCALE ~ I 0 16 ACCESS ROAD TO MIDWAY BAY DOCK ( ~ MILE) FLYWHEEL GENERATOR EQUIPMENT MOUNTING SKID FENCE FENCE TURBINE SHUTOFF VALVE s ( ~ ELECTRICAL SWITCHGEAR -----11+---- ""- PENSTOCK DRAIN ---------~ PRESSURE SET-------------l TURBINE PROFILE-SECTION B SCALE ~ I 0 0 4 POWERHOUSE PLAN SCALE ~ I 0 PREFABRICATED METAL BUILDING PARKING AREA AND YARD --7/~;..>t.r - EXISTING GROUND LEVEL SCALE 3 i6 8 12 SCALE I 4 60 SCALE I 20 16 01 'Is 20 ~---PERSONNEL DOOR ..._----ENTRANCE DOOR SPEED INCREASER B GOVERNOR ___j TURBINE [ORIGINAL GROUND LINE ----------------------2- 24 11 TAILRACE -SECTION C SCALE I 4 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ANCHORAGE ALASKA OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT POWERHOUSE-PLANS AND SECTIONS OOWL ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE ALASKA TUDOR ENGINEERING COMFANY SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA DIVERSION WEIR POWERHOUSE PANORAMAS OF PROJECT SITE, LOOKING SOUTHEAST. .____ __ DOCK DIVERSION WEIR EXHIBIT Vl-2 DIVERSION WEIR SITE, LOOKING DOWNSTREAM. POWERHOUSE SITE (FAR BANK) AND STREAM GAGING STATION EXHIBIT VI-3 SF:IEB:AD1:3-C APPENDIX 8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY .- ANALYSIS PARAMETERS SUMMARY OF RECO~~ENDATIONS Analysis Parameters for the 1984 Fiscal Year Economic Analysis Inflation Rate -0% Real Discount Rate -3.5% Real Oil Distillate Escalation Rate 2.5% -First 20 years 0% -Thereafter Cost of Power Analysis Inflation Rate -6.5% Project Debt to Equity Ratio -1:0 Cost of Debt .-10% Economic Life and Term of Financing Gasification Equipment Waste Heat Recapture Equipment Under 5 MW Over 5 MW Solar, Wind Turbines, Geothermal and Organic Rankine Cycle Turbines Diesel Generation* Units under 300 KW Units over 300 KW Gas Turbines Combined Cycle Turbines Steam Turbines (Including Coal and Wood-fired Boilers) Under 10 MW Over 10 MW Hydroelectric Projects Economic Life Term of Financing Transmission Systems Transmission Lines w/ Wood Poles Transmission Lines w/ Steel Towers Submarine Cables Oi 1 Fi 11 ed Solid Dielectric 10 years 10 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 20 years 20 years 30 years 20 years 30 years 50 years 35 years 30 years 40 years 30 years 20·, years *Diesel Reserve Units will have longer life depending on use. Also this economic life is by unit and not total plant capacity. 9204/020 B-1 SF:IEB:A01:3-C APPENDIX C ECONOMIC ANALYSIS UPDATE ~· .,--.· ,,. TABLE C-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:BASE CASE JUNE 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED VARIABLE FUEL OIL FUEL OIL TOTAL PRESENT CAPACITY ENERGY COST COST UNITCOST COST COST WORTH DEMAND <k W> <MWh) ($) ($) ($) (f) ($) ($) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 155 584.85 23974 49712 1. 52 92601 166287 a 1984 155 599.47 23854 50955 1. 52 94916 169725 0 1985 155 614.46 23732 52229 1. 52 97289 173249 0 1986 155 629.82 23607 53534 1. 52 99721 176863 170882 1987 155 645.56 23480 54873 1. 52 102214 188567 168561 1988 310 661.70 116130 56245 1. 52 184769 277144 249968 1989 310 678.24 115998 57651 1. 57 110610 284259 247715 1990 318 695.20 115863 59092 1. 61 116777 291731 245630 1991 310 712.58 115725 60569 1. 66 123287 2995.81 243710 1992 310 730.40 213498 62084 1. 71 130160 405742 318909 1993 310 748.65 213354 63636 1. 76 137417 414407 314705 1994 310 767.37 213208 65227 1. 81 145078 423513 310744 1995 310 786.56 213059 66857 1. 87 153166 433082 307020 1996 310 806.22 212907 68529 1. 93 161705 443141 303527 1997 310 826.37 212752 70242 1. 98 170720 453714 300260 1998 310 847.03 205583 71998 2.04 180238 457819 292731 1999 310 868.21 194451 73798 2.10 198286 458535 283274 2008 310 889.92 194286 75643 2. 17 200894 470823. 31030 2001 310 912.16 194118 77534 2.23 212894 483747 2?8979 2002 310 934.97 193947 79472 2.30 223918 497338 .;: .. ?119 2083 310 958.34 193773 81459 2.37 236402 511634 2.:5444 2004 310 982.30 193595 83496 2.44 249581 526671 273951 2005 310 1006.86 193413 85583 2.51 263496 542491 272638 2806 310 1006.86 193228 85583 2.51 263496 542306 263328 2807 310 1006.86 193839 85583 2.51 263496 542117 254335 2008 310 1006.86 192846 85583 2.51 263496 541924 245646 2009 310 1006.86 192649 85583 2.51 263496 541728 237253 2010 310 1006.86 192449 85583 2.51 263496 541527 229146 2011 310 1006.86 192244 85583 2.51 263496 541323 221313 2012 310 1086.86 192035 85583 2.51 263496 541114 213747 2013 310 1006.86 191823 85583 2.51 263496 540901 206437 2014 310 1006.86 191686 85583 2.51 263496 540684 199376 2015 318 1006.86 191384 85583 2.51 263496 540463 192555 2016 310 1006.86 191158 85583 2.51 263496 540237 185966 2017 310 1006.86 190928 85583 2.51 263496 540086 179601 2018 310 1086.86 190693 85583 2.51 263496 539771 173452 2031 310 1006.86 190693 85583 2.51 263496 539771 110906 2032 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 144201 2033 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 139325 2034 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 134613 2035 310 1006.86 377304 85583 2.51 263496 726383 130061 TOTAL 10,554,180, ......... ,.,... TABLE C-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLE~ENTAL DIESEL JUNE 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED VARIABLE FUEL OIL FUEL OIL TOTAL PRESENT CAPACITY ENERGY COST COST UNITCOST COST COST WORTH DEMAND <kW> <MWh> ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 155 584.85 23974 49712 1. 52 92601 166287 0 1984 155 599.47 23854 50955 1. 52 94916 169725 0 1985 155 614.46 23732 52229 1. 52 97289 173249 0 1986 155 629.82 23607 3153 1. 52 5874 32634 31530 1987 155 645.56 23480 3391 1. 52 6317 33188 30981 1988 310 661.70 116130 3701 1. 52 6895 126726 114299 1989 310 678.24 115998 4019 1. 57 7711 127728 111307 1990 310 695.20 115863 4379 1. 61 8653 128894 108525 1991 310 712.58 115725 4836 1. 66 9845 1304~6 106085 1992 310 730.40 213498 5362 1. 71 11241 230100 180857 1993 310 748.65 213354 5989 1. 76 12932 232276 176393 1994 310 767.37 213208 6632 1. 81 14750 234590 172126 1995 310 786.56 213059 7290 1. 87 16702 237051 168050 1996 310 806.22 212907 7966 1. 93 18796 239669 164160 1997 310 826.37 212752 8658 1. 98 21042 242452 160451 1998 310 847.03 205583 9367 2.04 23449 238400 152434 1999 310 868.21 194451 10094 2. 10 26028 230573 142444 2000 310 889.92 194286 10840 2. 17 28788 233914 139621 2001 310 912.16 194118 11604 2.23 31742 237464 136947 2002 310 934.97 193947 12387 2.30 34901 241235 134417 2003 310 958.34 193773 13189 2.37 38277 245239 132027 2004 310 982.30 193595 14051 2.44 42002 249647 129856 2005 310 1006.86 193413 15076 2.51 46417 254906 128107 2006 310 1006.86 193228 15076 2.51 46417 254721 123685 2007 310 1006.86 193039 15076 2.51 46417 254532 119414 2008 310 1006.86 192846 15076 2.51 46417 254339 1.15288 2009 310 1006.86 192649 15076 2.51 46417 254143 111304 2010 310 1006.86 192449 15076 2.51 46417 253942 107455 2011 310 1006.86 192244 15076 2.51 46417 253737 103737 2012 310 1006.86 192035 15076 2.51 46417 253529 100147 2013 310 1006.86 191823 15076 2.51 46417 253316 96679 2014 310 1006.86 191606 15076 2.51 46417 253099 93330 2015 310 1006.86 191384 15076 2.51 46417 252877 90095 2016 310 1006.86 191158 15076 2.51 46417 252652 86970 2017 310 1006.86 190928 15076 2.51 46417 252421 83953 2018 310 1006.86 190693 15076 2.51 46417 252186 81038 2031 310 1006.86 190693 15076 2.51 . 46417 252186 51816 2032 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 87110 2033 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 84164 2034 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 81318 2035 310 1006.86 377304 15076 2.51 46417 438798 78568 TOTAL 5,099,789, TABLE C-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS JUNE 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT OS.M REPLACE. REPLACE. ANNUAL PRESENT COSTS SERVICE SCHEDULE SINKING COST WORTH FUND ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ($) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1985 3990000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1986 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 169977 1987 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 164229 1988 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 158675 1989 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 153309 1990 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 148125 1991 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 143116 1992 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 138276 1993 0 170109 6000 0 18943 1'35052 133600 1994 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 129082 1995 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 124717 1996 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 120500 1997 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 116425 1998 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 112488 1999 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 108684 2000 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 105008 2001 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 101457 2002 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 98027 2003 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 94712 2004 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 91509 2005 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 88414 2010 0 170109 6000 55000 18943 195052 74442 2015 0 170109 6000 905000 18943 195052 62679 2035 0 170109 6000 0 18943 195052 31500 TOTAL PRESENT WORTH: 4,126,448 T.ABLE C-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT POTENTIAL SPACE HEATING CREDIT:ECONOMIC ANALYSIS JUNE 1984 YEAR TOTAL ELECTRICAL DEMAND HYDRO AVAILABLE FOR SPACE HEATING EQUIVALENT GALLONS OF FUEL OIL FUEL OIL UNIT COST POTENTIAL SA'r'INGS AT 100% AVOIDED COST PRESENT WORTH 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2035 <kWh) (1) 584.85 599.47 614.46 629.82 645.56 661.70 678.24 695.20 712.58 730.40 748.65 767.37 786.56 806.22 826.37 847.03 868.21 889.92 912.16 934.97 958.34 982.30 1006.86 1006.86 <kWh) (2) 0.00 0.00 0.00 717.28 704.33 691.84 679.04 666.31 654.32 642.68 631.80 620.65 609.21 597.49 585.48 573.17 560.55 547.61 534.35 520.76 506.83 493.01 480.51 480.51 <GAU (3) 0 0 0 25346 24888 24447 23994 23545 23121 22710 22325 21931 21527 21113 20688 20253 19807 19350 18882 18401 17909 17421 16979 16979 ($/GAL) (4) 1. 52 1. 52 1. 52 1. 52 1. 52 1. 52 1. 57 1. 61 1. 66 1. 71 1. 76 1. 81 1. 87 1. 93 1. 98 2.04 2. 10 2. 17 2.23 2.30 2.37 2.44 2.51 2.51 ($) (5) <l>Total village electrical demand from Table II-1. 0 0 0 38525 37830 37159 37565 37967 38402 38851 39339 39804 40243 40653 41030 41372 41675 41935 42147 42307 42411 42492 42657 ($) (6) 42657 TOTAL 0 0 0 37222 35315 33515 32736 31967 31240 30537 29875 29205 28529 27845 27153 26454 25746 25031 24306 23574 22832 22102 21438 7638 960913 <2)Surplus hydro generation in excess of village electrical demand. (3)Equivalent gallons of fuel oil for space heating based on 28.3 kWh/gal. (4)1984 fuel oil cost=$1.52/gal.Constant at 6.5% through 1988,then at 3.5% annually through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984. (5)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus hydro at 100% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating. (6)Present worth January 1985 at 3%. TABLE C-5 PRESENT WORTH AND B/C SUMMARY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT A. BASE CASE (Benefits) Present Worth Base Case B. RECOMMENDED HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT (Costs) Present Worth Hydroelectric Costs Present Worth Supplemental Diesel Costs Total Cost w/o Space Heating Present Worth Space Heating Credit Total Net Cost w/ Space Heating C. BENEFIT/COST RATIO 1. 8/C w/o Space Heating Credit 8/c -10,554,200 -1 14 -9,226,248 - . 2. 8/C w/ Space Heating Credit B/C = 10,554,200 = 1 28 8,265,348 • SF:IEB:AD1:3-C-5 $10,554,200 4,126,448 5,099,800 9,226,248 960,900 $ 8,265,348 -I SF:IEB:AD1:3-C APPENDIX D DIESEL ANALYSES ~ TABLE D-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:BASE CASE W/FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED VARIABLE FUEL OIL COST UNITCOST FUEL OIL TOTAL 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAPACITY ENERGY COST DEMAND (kW> <MWh> ($) (1) <2> (3) 155 584.85 155 599.47 155 614.46 155 629.82 155 645.56 310 661.70 310 678.24 310 695.20 310 712.58 310 730.40 310 748.65 310 767.37 310 786.56 310 806.22 310 826.37 310 847.03 310 868.21 310 889.92 310 912.16 310 934.97 310 958.34 310 982.30 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 23974 23854 23732 23607 23480 52126 51994 51859 51721 98932 98789 98643 98494 98342 98187 91018 79885 79721 79553 161630 161456 161278 161096 160911 160722 160529 160332 160132 159927 178202 177989 177772 177551 177325 191545 191310 ($) ($) (4) (5) 46678 50955 55624 60720 66284 72357 78987 86224 94124 102748 112162 122439 133658 145904 159272 173866 189796 207186 226170 246893 269514 294208 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 1. 43 1. 52 1. 62 1. 72 1. 84 1. 96 2. 14 2.34 2.57 2.81 3.08 3.37 3.69 4.04 4.43 4.85 5.31 5.81 6.36 6.97 7.63 8.35 9.15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9.15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9.15 COST COST ($) ($) < E» 86948 94914 103611 113104 123467 134780 151274 169786 190564 213884 240058 269435 302407 339414 380950 427569 479892 538619 604533 678512 761545 854739 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 959338 157600 169723 182966 197431 213231 259263 282254 307868 336408 415564 451009 490517 534559 583660 638409 692452 749574 825526 910256 1087035 1192515 1310225 1441599 1441414 1441225 1441032 1440836 1440635 1440430 1458706 1458493 1458276 1458054 1457828 1472048 1471813 UNIT COST 26.95 28.31 29.78 31.35 33.03 39.18 41.62 44.28 47.21 56.90 60.24 63.92 67.96 72.39 71.25 81.75 86.34 92.76 99.79 116.26 124.44 133.38 143.18 143.16 143.14 143.12 143. 10 143.08 143.06 144.88 144.86 144.83 144.81 144.79 146.20 146. 18 2031 310 1006.86 191310 321165 9.15 959338 1471813 146.18 2032 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08 2033 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08 2034 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08 2035 310 1006.86 341358 321165 9.15 959338 1621861 161.08 (1)Exi$ting system Is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit every 15 years in perpetulty.Replace 155 kW units In 1992 and replace every 10 years In perpetuity.Replace entire plant in 2032. (2)1983 energy use from APA letter.Escalated@2.5~ annually. (3)Debt service on existing and future loans. (4)8,5 cents/kWh for 1984.Includes lube oil,operations,miscellaneous consumables,malntenance,and lnsurance.AVEC system average. (5)1984 fuel cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5~ through 1988,then at 9.5~ annually through 2005 according to APA letter to JOWL dated May 15,1984. <6>Fuel oi 1 consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon. ... TABLE D-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:BASE CASE W'O FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE CAPACITY ENERGY DEMAND <kW> <MWh) (1) (2) FIXED COST ($) (3) ---------------- -------- 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 155 584.85 155 599.47 155 614.46 155 629.82 155 645.56 310 661.70 310 678.24 310 695.20 310 712.58 310 730.40 310 748.65 310 767.37 310 786.56 310 806.22 310 826.37 310 847.03 310 868.21 310 889.92 310 912.16 310 934.97 310 958.34 310 982.30 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 23974 23854 23732 23607 23480 52126 51994 51859 51721 98932 98789 98643 98494 98342 98187 91018 79885 79721 79553 161630 161456 161278 161096 160911 160722 160529 160332 160132 159927 178202 177989 177772 177551 177325 191545 191310 VARIABLE FUEL OIL COST UNITCOST ($) ($) (4) (5) 46678 50955 55624 60720 66284 72357 78987 86224 94124 102748 112162 122439 133658 145904 159272 173866 189796 207186 226170 246893 269514 294208 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 321165 1. 43 1. 52 1. 62 1. 72 1. 84 1. 96 2.08 2.22 2.36 2.52 2.68 2.85 3.04 3.24 3.45 3.67 3.91 4. 16 4.43 4.72 5.03 5.36 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 FUEL OIL TOTAL COST COST (f) ($) (6) 86948 94914 103611 113104 123467 134780 147129 160610 175326 191390 208926 228069 248966 271778 296679 323863 353536 385929 421290 459891 502028 548026 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 598239 157600 169723 182966 197431 213231 259263 278109 298692 321171 393071 419878 449151 481118 516024 554139 588746 623218 672837 727013 868413 932998 1003512 1080500 1080315 1080126 1079933 1079737 1079536 1079332 1097607 1097394 1097177 1096955 1096730 1110950 1110715 UNIT COST 26.95 28.31 29.78 31.35 33.03 39.18 41.00 42.96 45.07 53.82 56.08 58.53 61. 17 64.01 67·. 06 69.51 71.78 75.61 79.70 92.88 97.36 102.16 107.31 107.30 107.28 107.26 107.24 107.22 107.20 109.01 108.99 108.97 108.95 108.93 110.34 110.31 2031 310 1006.86 191310 321165 5.70 598239 1110715 110.3I 2032 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22 2033 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22 2034 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22 2035 310 1006.86 341358 321165 5.70 598239 1260763 125.22 (1)Exi$ting system is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit every 15 years in perpetuity.Replace 155 kW units in 1992 and replace every 10 years in perpetuity.Replace entire plant in 2032. (2)1983 energy use from APA 1etter.Escalated@2.5% annually. <3>Debt service on existing and future loan$. (4)8.5 cents/kWh for 1984.Includes lube oil,operations,miscellaneous consumables,maintenance,and insurance.AVEC system average. (5)1984 fuel cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% annually through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984. (6)Fuel oil consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon. TABLE D-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL W/FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAPACITY ENERGY COST DEMAND <kW) <MWh) ($) <1) (2) (3) 155 584.85 155 599.47 155 614.46 155 629.82 155 645.56 310 661.70 310 678.24 310 695.20 310 712.58 310 730.40 310 748.65 310 767.37 310 786.56 310 806.22 310 826.37 310 847.03 310 868.21 310 889.92 310 912.16 310 934.97 310 958.34 310 982.30 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 23974 23854 23732 23607 23480 52126 51994 51859 51721 98932 98789 98643 98494 98342 98187 91018 79885 79721 79553 161630 161456 161278 161096 160911 160722 160529 160332 160132 159927 178202 177989 177772 177551 177325 191545 191310 VARIABLE FUEL OIL COST UNITCOST ($) ($) (4) (5) 46678 50955 55624 3577 4096 4762 5506 6389 7516 8874 10556 12448 14574 16959 19631 22620 25961 29690 33848 38481 43638 49512 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 1. 43 1. 52 1. 62 1. 72 1. 84 1. 96 2. 14 2.34 2.57 2.81 3.08 3.37 3.69 4.04 4.43 4.85 5.31 5.81 6.36 6.97 7.63 8.35 9. 15 9.15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9. 15 9.15 9. 15 2031 310 1006.86 191310 56576 9.15 2032 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15 2033 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15 2034 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15 2035 310 1006.86 341358 56576 9.15 FUEL OIL TOTAL COST COST (f) ($) <6> 86948 94914 103611 6662 7631 8869 10546 12581 15217 18472 22592 27393 32975 39453 46954 55628 65641 77185 90474 105755 123306 143842 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 168996 157600 169723 182966 33846 35207 65757 68046 70828 74453 126278 131937 138484 146044 154754 164772 169266 171488 186596 203876 305867 328400 354632 386668 386483 386294 386101 385904 385704 385499 403774 403562 403345 403123 402897 417117 416882 UNIT COST 26.95 28.31 29.78 5.37 5.45 9.94 10.03 10. 19 10.45 17.29 17.62 18.05 18.57 19.20 19·. 94 19.98 19.75 20.97 22.35 32.71 34.27 36.10 38.40 38.39 38.37 38.35 38.33 38.31 38.29 40.10 40.08 40.06 40.04 40.02 41.43 41.40 168996 416882 41.40 168996 566930 56.31 168996 566930 56.31 168996 566930 56.31 168996. 566930 56.31 <!>Existing system is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit in 1992 and replace every 15 years in perpetuity.Replace 155 kW units every 10 years in perpetuity.Replace entire plant in 2032. (2)1983 energy use from APA letter.Escalated at 2.5~ annually (3)Debt service on existing and future loans. <4>8.5 cents/kWh.Includes lube oll,operations,miscellaneous consumables,ordinary and extraordinary maintenance,and insurance.AVEC system average. <5>1984 fuel cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5~ through 1988,then at 9.5~ through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984. <6>Fuel oil consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon. TABLE D-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:COST OF POWER OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:SUPPLEMENTAL DIESEL W/0 FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR FIRM VILLAGE FIXED 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAPACITY ENERGY COST DEMAND <kW) <MWh) ($) (1) (2) (3) 155 584.85 155 599.47 155 614.46 155 629.82 155 645.56 310 661.70 310 678.24 310 695.20 310 712.58 310 730.40 310 748.65 310 767.37 310 786.56 310 806.22 310 826.37 310 847.03 310 868.21 310 889.92 310 912.16 310 934.97 310 958.34 310 982.30 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 310 1006.86 23974 23854 23732 23607 23480 52126 51994 51859 51721 98932 98789 98643 98494 98342 98187 91018 79885 79721 79553 161630 161456 161278 161096 160911 160722 160529 160332 160132 159927 178202 177989 177772 177551 177325 191545 191310 VARIABLE FUEL OIL COST UNITCOST ($) ($) (4) (5) 46678 50955 55624 3577 4096 4762 5506 6389 7516 8874 10556 12448 14574 16959 19631 22620 25961 29690 33848 38481 43638 49512 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 56576 1. 43 1. 52 1. 62 1. 72 1. 84 1. 96 2.08 2.22 2.36 2.52 2.68 2.85 3.04 3.24 3.45 3.67 3.91 4. 16 4.43 4.72 5.03 5.36 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 2031 310 1006.86 191310 56576 5.70 2032 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70 2033 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70 2034 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70 2035 310 1006.86 341358 56576 5.70 FUEL OIL TOTAL COST COST (f) ($) (6) 86948 94914 103611 6662 7631 8869 10257 11901 14000 16529 19662 23188 27148 31591 36567 42136 48358 55304 63050 71680 81286 92226 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 105385 157600 169723 182966 33846 35207 65757 67757 70148 73237 124335 129007 134279 140216 146892 154386 155774 154204 164715 176452 271792 286380 303016 323057 322872 322683 322490 322294 322093 321889 340164 :339951 339734 339512 339286 353507 353272 353272 503319 503319 503319 503319 UNIT COST 26.95 28.31 29.78 5.37 5.45 9.94 9.99 10.09 10.28 17.02 17.23 17.50 17.83 18.22 18.68 18.39 17.76 18.51 19.34 29.07 29.88 30.85 32.09 32.07 32.05 32.03 32.01 31.99 31.97 33.78 33.76 33.74 33.72 33.70 35. 11 35.09 35.09 49.99 49.99 49.99 49.99 (1)Existing system is 2-155 kW units.Add 300 kW unit every 15 years in perpetuity.Replace 155 kW units every 10 years in perpetuity.Replace entire plant in 1988.Replace 300 kW unit in 1992 and replace in 2032. (2)1983 energy use from APA letter.Escalated at 2.5% annually (3)Debt service on existing and future loans. (4)8.5 cents/kWh.Includes lube oil,operations,miscellaneous consumables,ordinary and extraordinary maintenance,and insurance.AVEC system average. (5)1984 fuel cost=$1,52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984. <6)Fuel oil consumption rate=9.6 kWh/gallon. SF:IEB:A01:3-C APPENDIX E HYDROELECTRIC ANALYSES TABLE E-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE I-A:100% REVENUE BONDS WITH LEVEL PAYMENTS OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS APRIL 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) OS.M ($) (3) REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) REPLAC. RESERVE SINKING FUND FUND ($) ($) (5) (6) INT. ON RESERVE ($) (7) TOTAL COST ($) (8) ------- ------------------------------------------ 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 0 0 5122910 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 531193 0 531193 0 531193 0 531193 0 531193 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 25538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 404357 25538 3188899 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 0 0 0 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 21766 584312 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 584312 292156 292156 0 0 0 0 0 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 0 0 0 502247 502749 503283 503852 504458 505l04 505791 506523 507303 508133 509018 509959 510962 512031 513168 514380 515670 520067 58431 520067 58431 29216 29216 0 0 520067 257126 257126 47305 47305 UNIT COST (c/kWh) (9) 0.00 0.00 0.00 79.74 77.88 76.06 74.29 72.56 70.88 69.25 67.66 66. 11 64.60 63.14 61.71 60.32 58.98 57.66 56.39 55. 15 51.65 51.65 51.65 25.54 25.54 4.70 4.70 (!)Capital cost including 10% interest during construction,3.75% financing charge,and reserve equal to 110% of one years debt service. (2)Debt sservice for 35 years at 10%. (3)$5,000 for 1983. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Repl.ace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt service. (7)10% annual interest on reserve fund. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of ~ydro. TABLE E-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE I-B:100% REVENUE BONDS WITH GRADUATED PAYMENTS MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE RATE OF INCREASE IN ANNUAL DEBT SERVICE:9.5% OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS YEAR CAPITAL DEBT 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) 0 0 5122910 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 192531 210821 230849 252780 276794 303090 331883 363412 397936 435740 477136 522464 572098 626447 685959 751125 822482 900618 986177 1079864 0 1125075 0 1125075 0 1125075 0 1125075 0 0 O&M ($) (3) 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 22516 2:3980 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 APRIL 1984 REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 REPLAC. SINKING FUND ( $) (5) 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21?66 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 RESERVE I IH. FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) 0 0 0 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 584312 194771 194771 194771 0 0 0 0 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 58431 19477 19477 19477 0 TOTAL COST ($) (8) 0 0 0 163585 182377 202940 225439 250e60 277000 306481 338742 374046 412680 454960 501230 551867 607284 667934 734312 806959 886469 973492 1068737 1113949 958132 958132 958132 47305 UNIT COST (c/kWh) ( 9) 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.97 28.25 30.67 33.24 35.97 38.87 41.96 45.25 48.74 52.47 56.43 60.65 65. 15 69.95 75.06 80.50 86.31 92.50 99.10 106. 15 110.64 95. 16 95. 16 95. 16 4.70 2010 0 1125075 25538 234101 21766 584312 58431 1113949 110.64 2015 0 1125075 25538 3188899 21766 584312 58431 1113949 110.64 2035 0 0 25538 0 21766 0 0 47305 4.70 (!)Capital cost including 10% interest during construction,3.75% financing charge,and reserve equal to 110% of one years debt service. (2)Debt service required to make 1986 unit energy cost the same as base case. Maximum allowable annual rate of incease in energy cost=9.5%.Capital costs fully amortize~ over remainder of 35 year financing period when amortization exceeds maximum allowable payment. (3)$5,000 for 1983.Escalates at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt service. (7) 10% annual interest ear,ned on reserve. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. TABLE E-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-A:50% REVENUE BONDS & 50% STATE GRANT OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS JUNE 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) 0 0 2561460 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 265597 0 265597 0 265597 0 265597 0 265597 0 265597 0 0 0 0 O&M ($) (3) 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 22516 23980 25538 25538 REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234101 25538 3188899 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 0 0 0 0 0 REPLAC. SINKING FUND ($) (5) 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 RESERVE INT. FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) 0 0 0 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 292157 0 0 0 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 29216 .29216 TOTAL COST ($) (8) 0 0 0 265867 266368 266903 267472 268078 268723 269411 270143 270922 271753 272637 273579 274582 275650 276788 277999 279290 280664 282127 283686 283686 21766 292157 29216 283686 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 292157 292157 146078 146078 0 29216 29216 14608 14608 0 283686 283686 152216 152216 47305 47305 UNIT COST (c/kWh) (9) 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.21 41.26 40.34 39.44 38.5.6 37.71 36.89 36.08 35.31 34.55 33.82 33. 11 32.42 31.75 31. 10 30.48 29.87 29.29 28.72 28. 18 28.18 28.18 28. 18 28.18 15. 12 15. 12 4.70 4.70 (1)Capital cost for 50% of construction cost.Includes interest during construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid by state grant (2) 10% for 35 years. (3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt sevice. (7)10% annual interest earned on reserve. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. TABLE E-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-B:40% REVENUE BONDS & 60% STATE GRANT OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS JUNE 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) 0 0 2049230 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 212484 0 212484 0 212484 0 212484 0 212484 0 212484 0 0 0 0 O&M ($) (3) 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 22516 23980 25538 25538 REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234101 25538 3188899 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 0 0 0 0 0 REPLAC. SINKING FUND ($) (5) 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 217-66 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 RESERVE INT. FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) 0 0 0 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 233732 0 0 0 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 23373 TOTAL COST ( $) (8) 0 0 0 218596 219098 219632 220201 220807 221453 222140 222872 223652 224482 225367 226308 227311 228380 229517 230729 232019 233393 234857 236416 236416 21766 233732 23373 236416 21766 233732 21766 233732 21766 116866 21766 116866 21766 0 21766 0 23373 23373 11687 11687 0 0 236416 236416 131236 131236 47305 47305 UNIT COST (c/kWh) (9) 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.71 33.94 33. 19 32.47 31.76 31.08 30.41 29.77 29. 15 28.54 27.95 27.39 26.84 26.30 25.79 25.29 24.82 24.35 23.91 23.48 23.48 23.48 23.48 23.48 13.03 13.03 4.70 4.70 (1)Capital cost for 40% of construction cost.Includes interest during construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid by state grant (2) 10% for 35 years. (3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every.25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt sevice. < 7) 10% annua 1 interest earned on reserve. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. TABLE E-5 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE II-C:36.4% REVENUE BONDS & 63.6% STATE GRANT OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS YEAR CAPITAL DEBT 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2035 COST SERVICE ($) ($) ( 1) (2) 0 0 1485840 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 150672 0 150672 0 0 0 0 0 150672 150672 150672 150672 0 O&M ($) (3) 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 22516 23980 25538 25538 REPLAC. SCHED. ($) (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234101 25538 3188899 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 25538 0 0 0 0 0 JUNE 1984 REPLAC. SINKING FUND ($) (5) 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 217-66 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 RESERVE I ~IT. FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) 0 0 0 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 165739 0 0 0 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 16574 TOTAL COST ($) (8) 0 0 0 163583 164085 164619 165188 165794 166440 167127 167859 168639 169469 170353 171295 172298 173366 174504 175716 177006 178380 179844 181402 181402 21766 165739 16574 181402 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 165739 165739 82869 82869 0 16574 16574 8287 8287 0 181402 181402 106820 106820 47305 47305 UNIT COST (C/kWh) (9) 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.97 25.42 24.88 24.36 23.85 23.36 22.88 22.42 21.98 21.55 21. 13 20.73 20.34 19.97 19.61 19.26 18.93 18.61 18.31 18.02 18.02 18.02 18.02 18.02 10.61 10.61 4.70 4.70 (1)Capital cost for 36.4% of construction cost.Includes interest during construction,financing fee,and reserve fund.Balance of construction paid by state grant (2) 10% for 35 years. (3)$5,000 for 1983, escalated at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every. 25 years.Replace transmission lines e·~ery 30 years. (5)Sinking funds are superimposed. (6)110% of annual debt sevice. (7)10% annual interest earned on reserve. (8)Total annual cost of hydro. (9)Annual unit cost of hydro. TABLE E-6 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE III-A:STATE LOAN WITH 35 YEAR PAYBACK OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS JUNE 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT O&M REPLAC. REPLAC. RESERVE SCHED. SINKING FUND FUND INT. TOTAL COST 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021 2035 COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) 0 0 3990000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 243676 0 243676 0 243676 0 0 ($) (3) 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 22516 23980 25538 25538 ($) (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234101 25538 3188899 25538 25538 25538 0 0 ($) (5) 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 217.66 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 ($) (6) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ON RESERVE ($) ($) (8) (7) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 273161 273663 274197 274766 275373 276~18 276705 277437 278217 279048 279932 280874 281877 282945 284083 285294 286584 287959 289422 290981 290981 0 290981 0 290981 0 47305 0 47305 UNIT COST 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.37 42.39 41.44 40.51 39.61 38.73 37.88 37.06 36.26 35.48 34.72 33.99 33.28 32.59 31.92 31.28 30.65 30.05 29.46 28.90 28.90 28.90 28.90 4.70 4.70 (l)Capital cost with no allowance for interest during construction,finance fees or reserve fund. (2)Debt service for 35 years at 5%. (3)$5,000 for 1983,escalate at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. <5>Sinking funds superimposed. (6)No reserve required. <7>No reserve required. (8)Annual total hydro c9st. (9)Annua1 unit hydro cost. TABLE E-7 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE 111-B:STATE LOAN WITH DEFERRED PAYMENT OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS JUNE 1984 YEAR CAPITAL DEBT O&M REPLAC. SCHED. REPLAC. SINKING FUND ($) RESERVE INT. TOTAL COST 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021 2035 COST SERVICE ($) ($) (1) (2) 0 0 3990000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 461141 461141 461141 461141 461141 461141 461141 461141 461141 461141 461141 0 461141 0 461141 0 0 0 0 ($) (3) 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 22516 23980 25538 25538 ($) (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234101 25538 3188899 25538 25538 25538 0 0 0 (5) 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 217.66 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 FUND ON RESERVE ($) ($) (6) (7) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ($) (8) 0 0 0 29485 29987 30521 31090 31696 32~42 33029 33761 34541 35371 497396 498338 499341 500409 501547 502759 504049 505423 506887 508445 508445 0 508445 0 508445 0 47305 0 47305 UNIT COST (c/kWh) (9) 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.68 4.65 4.61 4.58 4.56 4.54 4.52 4.51 4.50 4.50 61.69 60.30 58.95 57.64 56.36 55. 12 53.91 52.74 51.60 50.50 50.50 50.50 50.50 4.70 4.70 (!)Capital cost without interest during construction,finance charge,or reserve. (2)Payment deferred for 10 years then amortized over 25 years at 5%. (3)$5,000 for 1983.Escalates at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds superimposed. (6)No reserve fund required. (?)No reserve fund required. (8)Annual hydro cost. (8)Annual hydro unit co?t. TABLE E-8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL ALTERNATIVE IV:STATE EQUITY INVESTMENT OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT:HYDROELECTRIC COSTS JUNE 1984 YEAR CAPITAL COST TOTAL ANNUAL COST ($) (2) O&M REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE OF INVESTMENT ($) REPLACEMENT SINKING FUND RETURN ON UNIT INVESTMENT COST ($) (1) ($) (3) (4) ($) (5) ($) ( 6) (c/kWh> (7) --------- -----------------------------------------------------------1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2035 0 0 3990000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 199500 0 0 0 7719 8221 8755 9324 9930 10575 11263 11995 12775 13605 14489 15431 16434 17502 18640 19852 21142 22516 23980 25538 21142 21142 21142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234101 3188899 0 0 0 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 21766 0 0 0 170015 169513 168979 168410 167804 167158 166471 165739 164959 164129 163244 162302 161299 160231 159094 157882 156592 155217 153754 152195 156592 156592 156592 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.68 30.90 30.15 29.41 28.70 28.00 27.31 26.65 26.00 25.36 24.75 24.14 23.55 22.98 22.42 21.87 21.34 20.82 20.31 19.81 19.81 19.81 19.81 (!)Capital cost without interest during construction,finance charge,or reserve. (2) 5% of project capital cost return to state annually. (3) $5000 for 1983,escalated at 6.5% annually. (4)Replace runner every 25 years.Replace transmission lines every 30 years. (5)Sinking funds superimposed. <6>Net return to state after paying O&M and sinking fund. (?)Unit cost to consumers. SF:IEB:AD1:4-C APPENDIX f SPACE HEATING ANALYSES TABLE F-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT POTENTIAL SPACE HEATING CREDIT W/FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR TOTAL ELECTRICAL DEMAND HYDRO AVAILABLE FOR SPACE HEATING EQUIVALENT GALLONS OF FUEL OIL FUEL 0 IL.~ UNIT COST POTENTIAL SAVINGS AT 25% AVOIDED COST POTENTIAL SAVINGS AT 50% AVOIDED COST POTENTIAL SAVINGS AT 75% AVOIDED COST <kWh) (1) <kWh) (2) <GAU (3) ($/GAL) <Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2035 584.85 599.47 614.46 629.82 645.56 661.70 678.24 695.20 712.58 730.40 748.65 767.37 786.56 806.22 826.37 847.03 868.21 889.92 912. 16 934.97 958.34 982.30 1006.86 1006.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 717.28 704.33 691.84 679.04 666.31 654.32 642.68 631.80 620.65 609.21 597.49 585.48 573.17 560.55 547.61 534.35 520.76 506.83 493.01 480.51 480.51 0 0 0 25346 24888 24447 23994 23545 23121 22710 22325 21931 21527 21113 20688 20253 19807 19350 18882 18401 17909 17421 16979 16979 (4) (5) (6) (7) 1. 43 1. 52 1. 62 1. 72 1. 84 1. 96 2. 14 2.34 2.57 2.81 3.08 3.37 3.69 4.04 4.43 4.85 5.31 5.81 6.36 6.97 7.63 8.35 9. 15 9. 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 l. 73 l. 77 l. 81 l. 89 l. 99 2.08 2. 19 2.29 2.41 2.53 2.65 2.77 2.90 3.03 3. 16 3.29 3.43 3.56 3.70 3.86 3.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.47 3.54 3.61 3.79 3.97 4. 17 4.37 4.59 4.82 5.05 5.29 5.54 5.79 6.05 6.32 6.58 6.86 7. 13 7.41 7.71 7.71 (1)Total village electrical demand from Table 11-1. (2)Surplus hydro generation in excess of village electrical demand. (3)Equivalent gallons of fuel oil for space heating based on 28.3 kWh/gal. (4)1984 fuel oil cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% through 1988,then at 9.5% annually through 2005 according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984. (5)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus hydro at 25% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating. (6)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus hydro at 50% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating. (?)Potential savings to total village electrical cosls from sale of surplus hydro at 75% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating. 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.20 5.31 5.42 5.68 5.96 6.25 6.56 6.88 7.22 7.58 7.94 8.31 8.69 9.08 9.48 9.88 10.28 10.69 11. 11 11.57 11.57 TABLE F-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY OLD HARHOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT POTENTIAL SPACE HEATING CREDIT W/0 FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR TOTAL ELECTRICAL DEMAND HYDRO AVAILABLE FOR SPACE HEATING EQUIVALENT GALLONS OF FUEL OIL FUEL OIL' UNIT COST POTENTIAL SAVINGS AT 25% AVOIDED COST POTENTIAL SAVINGS AT 50% AVOIDED COST POTENTIAL SAVINGS AT 75% AVOIDED COST <kWh) ( 1) (kWh) (2) <GAL> (3) ($/GAL) <Cents/kWh) (Cents/kWh) <Cents/kWh) (4) (5) (6) (7) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1'390 1991 19'32 19'33 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2035 584.85 599.47 614.46 629.82 645.56 661.70 678.24 695.20 712.58 730.40 748.65 767.37 786.56 806.22 826.37 847.03 868.21 889.'32 912.16 934.97 958.34 982.30 1006.86 1006.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 717.28 704.33 691.84 679.04 666.31 654.32 642.68 631.80 620.65 609.21 597.49 585.48 573.17 560.55 547.61 534.35 520.76 506.83 493.01 480.51 480.51 0 0 0 25346 24888 24447 239'34 23545 23121 22710 22325 21931 21527 21113 20688 20253 19807 19350 18882 18401 17909 17421 16979 16979 1. 43 1. 52 1. 62 1. 72 1. 84 1. 96 2.08 2.22 2.36 2.52 2.68 2.85 3.04 3.24 3.45 3.67 3.91 4. 16 4.43 4.72 5.03 5.36 5.70 5.70 (!)Total village electrical demand from Table II-1. 0.00 0.00 0.00 (. 73 l. 77 l. 81 l. 84 t. 88 l. 92 l. 96 2.00 2.04 2.08 2. 12 2. 16 2.19 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.35 2.37 2.40 2.40 e.e0 0.00 0.00 3.47 3.54 3.61 3.68 3.76 3.83 3.91 3.9'3 4.08 4. 16 4.24 4.31 4.39 4.46 4.53 4.59 4.65 4.70 4.75 4.81 4.81 (2)Surplus hydro generation in excess of village electrical demand. <3>Equivalent gallons of fuel oil for space heating based on 28.3 kWh/gal. (4)1984 fuel oil cost=$1.52/gal.Inflated at 6.5% through 2005 annually according to APA letter to DOWL dated May 15,1984. <5>Potential savings to total village electrical cos~s from sale of surplus hydro at 25% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating. (6)Potential savings to total village electrical cos~s from sale of surplus hydro at 50% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating. (?)Potential savings to total village electrical cos~s from sale of surplus hydro at 75% of avoided cost of fuel oil used for space heating. 0.ee e.0e 0.00 5.20 5.31 5.42 5.53 5.63 5.75 5.87 5.99 6. 12 6.24 6.36 6.47 6.58 6.69 6.79 6.88 6.97 7.05 7. 12 7.21 7.21 SF:IEB:AD1:3-C APPENDIX G FINANCIAL SUMMARIES WITHOUT REAL FUEL ESCALATION TABLE G-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-A loJ/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kloJh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% ( 1 ) (2) (3) (4) ( 5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 79.74 85.12 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 77.88 83.33 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 76.06 86.00 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 74.29 84.28 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 72.56 82.65 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 70.88 81. 16 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53.82 17.02 69.25 86.27 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 67.66 84.89 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 66. 11 83.61 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 64.60 82.43 2.08 4. 16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 63. 14 81.36 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 61.71 80.39 2. 16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 60.32 78.71 2. 19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 58.98 76.74 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75.61 18.51 57.66 76. 17 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 56.39 75.74 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 55. 15 84.22 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 53.95 83.83 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 52.79 83.63 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 32.09 51.65 83.74 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 51.65 83.72 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 51.65 83.70 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 51.65 83.68 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 51.65 83.66 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 51.65 83.64 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 51.65 83.62 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 51.65 85.44 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 51.65 86.74 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 25.54 60.62 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 25.54 60.62 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21 <l)See Table D-2 (2)See Table D-4 (3)See Tab 1 e E-1 <4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Potent i al space heat;ng credit at 25% avoided c o;:.st. See Tab 1 e F-1. (6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Tab 1 e F-1. (?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Tab 1 e F-1. TABLE G-2 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE I-B W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% ( 1 ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ------------------------------------------------------ ---------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 28.25 33.70 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39. 18 9.94 30.67 40.61 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 33.24 43.23 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 35.97 46.06 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 38.87 49. 1 s 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53.82 17.02 41.96 58.98 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 45.25 62.48 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 48.74 66.24 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 52.47 70.29 2.08 4. 16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 56.43 74.65 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 60.65 79.34 2. 16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 65. 1 s 83.54 2. 19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 69.95 87.71 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75.61 18.51 75.06 93.57 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 80.50 99.85 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 86.31 115.38 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 92.50 122.38 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 99.10 129.95 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 32.09 106. 1 s 138.23 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 110.64 142.70 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 110.64 142.68 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 110.64 142.67 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 110.64 142.65 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 110.64 142.63 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 110.64 142.61 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 110.64 144.42 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 95. 16 130.25 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 95. 16 130.25 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 95.16 130.25 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21 <1)See Table D-2 <2)See Table D-4 (3)See Table E-2 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental d;esel costs. <S)Potent;al space heat; ng cred;t at 25% avo;ded cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potent; al space heat; ng cred;t at s0~: avo;ded cost.See Table F-1. (7)Potent;al space heat;ng cred;t at 75% avo;ded cost.See Table F-1. TABLE G-3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-A W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) ( 5) ( 6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 42.21 47.59 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 41.26 46.72 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 40.34 50.27 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 39.44 49.43 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 38.56 48.65 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 37.71 47.99 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53.82 17.02 36.89 53.91 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 36.08 53.32 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 35.31 52.80 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 34.55 52.38 2.08 4. 16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 33.82 52.04 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 33. 11 51.79 2. 16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 32.42 50.81 2. 19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 31.75 49.51 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75.61 18.51 31. 10 49.61 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 30.48 49.82 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 29.87 58.94 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 29.29 59. 17 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 28.72 59.57 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 32.09 28.18 60.26 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 28.18 60.24 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 28.18 60.22 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 28. 18 60.20 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 28. 18 60.19 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 28. 18 60.17 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 28. 18 60. 15 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 28.18 61.96 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 28.18 63.26 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 15. 12 50.20 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 15. 12 50.20 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21 (1)See Table D-2 (2)See Table D-4 (3)See Table E-3 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potential space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE G-4 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-B W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLRGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT < c /kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) <2> (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 34.71 40.08 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 33.94 39.39 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 33.19 43.13 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 32.47 42.46 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 31.76 41.85 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 31.08 41.36 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53.82 17.02 30.41 47.44 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 29.77 47.00 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 29.15 46.64 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 28.54 46.37 2.08 4.16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 27.95 46.17 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 27.39 46.07 2. 16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 26.84 45.23 2. 19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 26.30 44.07 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75.61 18.51 25.79 44.30 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 25.29 44.64 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 24.82 53.89 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 24.35 54.24 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 23.91 54.76 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 32.09 23.48 55.57 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 23.48 55.55 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 23.48 55.53 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 23.48 55.51 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 23.48 55.49 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 23.48 55.47 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 23.48 55.45 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 23.48 57.27 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 23.48 58.57 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 13.03 48.12 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 13.03 48. 12 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21 (l)See Tab 1 e D-2 <2>See Table D-4 <3>See Table E-4 (4)Sum of hydro and :supplemental diesel co:st:s. <S>Potent i al :space heating credit at 25% avoided co:st.See Table F-1. <6>Potentia1 :space heating credit at 50% avoided co:st.See Table F-1. <7>Potent i al :space heating credit at 75~{ avoided •:ost.See Table F-1. TABLE G-5 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE II-C W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT <c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> ( c/k Wh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ---------------------------------------------------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0,00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31,35 5.37 25.97 31.35 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 25.42 30.87 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 24.88 34.82 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 24.36 34.35 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 23.85 33.94 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 23.36 33.63 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53.82 17.02 22.88 39.90 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 22.42 39.65 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 21.98 39.47 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 21.55 39.37 2.08 4. 16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 21. 13 39.35 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 20.73 39.41 2. 16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 20.34 38.73 2.19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 19.97 37.73 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75.61 18.51 19.61 38.12 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 19.26 38.61 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 18.93 48.00 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 18.61 48.50 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 18.31 49.16 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 32.09 18.02 50. 10 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 18.02 50.08 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 18.02 50.07 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 18.02 50.05 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 18.02 50.03 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 18.02 50.01 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 18.02 49.99 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 18.02 51.80 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 18.02 53.10 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 10.61 45.70 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 10.61 45.70 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21 <1>See Table D-2 <2>See Table D-4 <3>See Table E-5 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental die-sel CC•StS. <5>Potent i al space hi'ating credit at 25% al)O i ded cost.See Tab 1 e F-1. (6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Tab 1 e F-1. <?>Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE C-6 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE III-A W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT < c /kWh) (c/kWh) <c /kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25~ 50% 75% (1) (2) C3) (4) ( 5) (6) (7) --------------------------------------------- ------------------1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 43.37 48.75 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 42.39 47.85 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39. 18 9.94 41.44 51.38 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 40.51 50.50 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 39.61 49.70 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 38.73 49.01 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53,82 17.02 37.88 54.91 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 37.06 54.29 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 36.26 53.75 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 35.48 53.30 2.08 4. 16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 34.72 52.94 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 33.99 52.67 2. 16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 33.28 51.67 2. 19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 32.59 50.35 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75,61 18.51 31.92 50.43 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 31.28 50.62 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 30.65 59.72 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 30.05 59.93 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 29.46 60.31 2.37 4.75 7.12 2005 107.31 32.09 28.90 60.99 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 28.90 60.97 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 28.90 60.95 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 28.90 60.93 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 28.90 60.91 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 28.90 60.89 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 28.90 60.87 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 28.90 62.68 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 28.90 63.99 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 28.90 63.99 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 28.90 63.99 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21 <1>See Table D-2 <2>See Table D-4 <3>See Table E-6 <4>Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. <5>Potent i al space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <6>Potential space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <7)Potent i al space heating •:red it at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1. TABLE G-7 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE 111-B W/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh> (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) --------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 4.68 10.06 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 4.65 10. 10 1. 77 3.54 5.31 1988 39.18 9.94 4.61 14.55 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 4.58 14.57 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 4.56 14.65 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 4.54 14.82 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53.82 17.02 4.52 21.55 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 4.51 21.74 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 4.50 22.00 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 4.50 22.32 2.08 4. 16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 61.69 79.91 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 60.30 78.99 2.16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 58.95 77.34 2. 19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 57.64 75.40 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75.61 18.51 56.36 74.87 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 55. 12 74.46 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 53.91 82.98 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 52.74 82.62 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 51.60 82.45 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 32.09 50.50 82.58 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 50.50 82.57 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 50.50 82.55 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 50.50 82.53 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 50.50 82.51 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 50.50 82.49 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 50.50 82.47 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 50.50 84.28 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 50.50 85.58 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 50.50 85.58 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 50.50 85.58 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 4.70 39.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 4.70 54.69 2.40 4.81 7.21 <1>See Table D-2 <2>See Table D-4 <3>See Table E-7 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potential space heating credit at 50% avoided cost.See Table F-1. <7>Potent i al space heating credit at 75% avoided cost,. See Table F-1. ." TABLE G-8 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FOR OLD HARBOR HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE IV 1,..1/0 REAL FUEL ESCALATION JUNE 1984 YEAR BASE SUPPL. HYDRO. TOTAL SPACE SPACE SPACE CASE DIESEL VILLAGE HEATING HEATING HEATING CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) (c/kWh) 25% 50% 75% (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) --------------------------------------------------------------- 1983 26.95 26.95 0.00 26.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 28.31 28.31 0.00 28.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 1985 29.78 29.78 0.00 29.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 31.35 5.37 31.68 37.05 1. 73 3.47 5.20 1987 33.03 5.45 30.90 36.36 1.77 3.54 5.31 1988 39. 18 9.94 30.15 40.09 1. 81 3.61 5.42 1989 41.00 9.99 29.41 39.40 1. 84 3.68 5.53 1990 42.96 10.09 28.70 38.79 1. 88 3.76 5.63 1991 45.07 10.28 28.00 38.27 1. 92 3.83 5.75 1992 53.82 17.02 27.31 44.34 1. 96 3.91 5.87 1993 56.08 17.23 26.65 43.88 2.00 3.99 5.99 1994 58.53 17.50 26.00 43.50 2.04 4.08 6. 12 1995 61. 17 17.83 25.36 43.19 2.08 4. 16 6.24 1996 64.01 18.22 24.75 42.96 2. 12 4.24 6.36 1997 67.06 18.68 24.14 42.82 2. 16 4.31 6.47 1998 69.51 18.39 23.55 41.94 2. 19 4.39 6.58 1999 71.78 17.76 22.98 40.74 2.23 4.46 6.69 2000 75.61 18.51 22.42 40.93 2.26 4.53 6.79 2001 79.70 19.34 21.87 41.22 2.29 4.59 6.88 2002 92.88 29.07 21.34 50.41 2.32 4.65 6.97 2003 97.36 29.88 20.82 50.70 2.35 4.70 7.05 2004 102. 16 30.85 20.31 51. 16 2.37 4.75 7. 12 2005 107.31 32.09 19.81 51.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2006 107.30 32.07 19.81 51.88 2.40 4.81 7.21 2007 107.28 32.05 19.81 51.86 2.40 4.81 7.21 2008 107.26 32.03 19.81 51.84 2.40 4.81 7.21 2009 107.24 32.01 19.81 51.82 2.40 4.81 7.21 2010 107.22 31.99 19.81 51.80 2.40 4.81 7.21 2011 107.20 31.97 19.81 51.78 2.40 4.81 7.21 2012 109.01 33.78 19.81 53.60 2.40 4.81 7.21 2018 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2019 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2020 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2021 110.31 35.09 19.81 54.90 2.40 4.81 7.21 2035 125.22 49.99 19.81 69.80 2.40 4.81 7.21 <1>See Table [1-2 <2>See TablE' D-4 <3>See Tab 1 e E-8 (4)Sum of hydro and supplemental diesel costs. (5)Potential space heating credit at 25% avoided cost.See Table F-1. (6)Potent i al space heating credit at 50% a'Jo i ded cost.See Table F-1. (?)Potential space heating credit at 75% avoided cost.See Table F-1.