HomeMy WebLinkAboutBlack Bear Lake Updated Findings and Recommendations 1983..
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ALASKA POWER AUTIIORITY
UPDATit~D FINDINGS & RECOMMEl~DATIONS
BLACK BEAR LAKE I·I"Y'DROELECTRIC
PROJECT
PRINCE OF \VALES ISJ.,AND
OCTOBER 1.983
SUPERCEDES
FEBRlJARY 1982 VERSION
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ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
UPDATED FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
BLACK BEAR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
October 1983
(Supersedes February 1982 Version)
This report of updated findings and recommendations on the
Black Bear Lake Hydroelectric Project supersedes the earlier
version, prepared in February 1982. This update has been
prepared so that the project may be re-evaluated in light of
recent developments in the project power market area and
additional data which have subsequently become available.
Portions of the February 1982 findings and recommendations
regarding project background, studies performed through the end
of 1981, and historical energy use through the end of 1979 are
still valid and the reader is referred to that report for a more
detailed information concerning those matters.
BACKGROUND
Black Bear Lake was identified as a potential source of
hydroelectric power to serve the communities of Craig, Klawock,
and Hydaburg, on Prince of Wales Island, by R.W. Retherford As-
sociates in their 1977 report for Alaska Power Authority. The
project was again recommended by Harza Engineering Company in
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their 1979 pre-feasibility study and in 1980 the Power Authority
selected Harza to perform a feasibility analysis of the project
and, if feasible, prepare a FERC license application. Geotech-
nical and environmental field studies were conducted in 1980 and
1981 as well as detailed load forecasts, economic analyses, and
feasibility level cost estimates. The feasibility report was
completed in October, 1981.
Based on the results of the feasibility report and other
information available at the time of preparation, the Power Au-
thority prepared its findings and recommendations in December
1981. These were revised in February 1982.
The draft FERC license application was submitted to the
Commission on December 4, 1981. Processing by FERC, subsequent
revisions to the draft license application, and provision of the
requested supplemental information continued through spring and
early summer 1982. Notification that the license application
was accepted for filing was issued by the FERC on June 15,
1982.
Status of Project Design
The Power Authority selected Harza to prepare the project
design and contract documents and to assist in the licensing
process. Subsequent design activities completed by the consul-
tant to date include the following:
1. Ground survey of the project site.
2. Subsurface exploration program.
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3. Design memoranda for turbines and guard valves and
generators and excitation equipment.
4. Preparation of draft contract documents for access
road construction.eentrsee aeeHmeftee.
5. Preparation of draft contract documents for procure-
ment of major equipment.
Status of Project Licensing
Processing of the license application by the FERC conti-
nues. In September 1982, FERC personnel visited the project
site and market area for the purpose of collecting additional
data for the Comission's Environmental Impact Statement. The
draft EIS was completed and issued for comments in February
1983. The final EIS had not been issued as of the time of this
report's preparation.
Licensing related activities performed by the Power Autho-
rity's consultant to date include the following:
1. Additional environmental field activities and investi-
gations required by government agencies and conducted
during the period July 1981 through July 1982.
2. Additional cultural surveys of the project site.
3. Additional environmental field studies and investiga-
tions, required by government agencies and conducted
during the period Aug~st 1982 through July 1983.
4.
s.
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Participation in public and agency meetings.
Update of the project power market area load forecast
to include 1982 historical data.
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There are several recent significant developments in the
project market area which affect licensing of the project.
These are the following:
1. In July 1982, Thorne Bay was granted status as a City
of the second class by the State. The City sub-
sequently petitioned the Power Authority to consider
the addition of Thorne Bay to the Black Bear Lake
project's service area.
2. Alaska Timber Corporation, (ATC) placed into opera-
tion a 2000 kW wood waste fired turbine generator
unit. ATC is proceeding with plans for an additional
generating unit and is currently negotiating with
Tlingit Haida Regional Electric Authority, (THREA),
and the Alaska Power & Telephone Company, (APT), for
sale of excess energy.
3. The US Forest Service announced plans to locate a log-
4.
ging camp at Polk Inlet, northwest of Hydaburg and
asked the Power Authority to consider extension of the
project transmission line to that site •
.
Economic conditions in the market area, subsequent to
preparation of the feasibility load forecast, have re-
sulted in lowered expectations for future load growth:
particularly in the industrial sector.
In response to these developments, the Power Authority,
through its consultant, investigted the following: transmission
line extension to Thorne Bay: re-evaluation of the wood waste
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alternative; comparison of a transmission line extension for
Polk Inlet Forest Service camp with an alternative hydropower
plant at the Rock Lake site; and pre-feasibility level conside-
ration of staged development of the Black Bear Lake Project,
involving construction of a low dam and installation of only one
3.0 MW turbine generator unit in the initial stage of develop-
ment.
Based on the results of these studies, the Power Authority
informed the FERC by letter, dated October 6, 1983, of its de-
sire to amend the license application to provide for the addi-
tion of Thorne Bay to the project service area and for staged
development of the project. The proposed amendment would also
include justification of the project based on the May 1983 up~
dated load forecasts.
In its October 12, 1983 response to the Power Authority
letter, the FERC requested that the Power Authority file either
a letter withdrawing the pending application and a schedule for
filing a new license application, or a statement that the Power
Authority is not planning to materially amend the pending
license application for the project.
The matter is currently pending and it is the purpose of
this report to recommend the course of action to be taken in
this regard.
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HISTORICAL DATA
The principal market area for Black Bear ~ke electric
energy are the growing communities of Craig, Klawock, and
Hydaburg, via an interconnected transmission system. See
Exhibit 1. The City of Thorne Bay and the Forest Service ranger
district facilities there, the ferry terminal, Forest Service
camp, and state land disposal sites at Hollis, and a proposed
Forest Service logging camp at Polk Inlet are also possible
additions to the market area. Historical population data for
the principal market area and for Thorne Bay are shown fV on
Exhibit 2. As shown iJ:It: 'i:"fte eJtlti'&it., the 1982 population for
Craig, Klawock and Hydaburg was about 1645. Thorne Bay had
another 316 people and the Hollis area had an estimated 140
people. However, the population fluctuates seasonally due to
activities in fisheries, forestry, and tourism.
Exhibit 3 gives the historical energy consumption in the
residential-commercial and public sector for the principal mar-
ket area for the years 1973 through 1982. Per capita use of
electricity for residential-commercial purposes in 1982 averaged
about 3000 kWh/yr. That energy consumption is less than one-
half of the Alaska average, indicating substantial potential for
growth in this sector.
Nearly all of the electric power in the area is generated
from small diesel generators. The power is distributed from
the power stations in each community to the local consumers and
there are no interconnections of the communities. Klawock is
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served by the Tlingit Haida Regional Electric Authorit:f (THREA~
which also served the Klawock cannery but not the Alaska Timbe~
Corporation (ATC) which has its own generation. Craig and
Hydaburg are served by the Alaska Power and Telephone CompanyJ
(APT). Cold storage facilities in Craig and Hydaburg have theii
own generators for seasonal operations. The City of Thorne Bay
bought the electric generation and distribution facilities from
the Louisiana Pacific Corporation, and is now generating elec-
tric power sufficient to meet the requirements of its residents'.
At Hollis, the Forest Service has its own generators.
ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTS
In 1980, during the feasibility study and FERC license ap-
plication preparation, a forecast of electric energy and pea~
demand was prepared for Craig, Klawock, and Hydaburg. To de-
velop this forecast, historical trends in energy consumption,.
population growth and economic activities on Prince Hales Islan<
were first analyzed. Specific information was obtained from
consumers, fuel suppliers, and through conver~ations with nativ,
representatives involved in the economic development of the com·
munities. The forecast was updated in the spring of 1983, base•
on new data for 1980-1982 and continued contact with interested
federal, state, local and private entities. At the same time;
a load forecast was also made for the Thorne Bay power market.
Three scenarios of load growth in each community were developed
each.scenario being based on different socioeconomic assump-
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tiona. The scenarios are identified as Scenario A, B, and C an·
represent optimistic, moderate and pessimistic views of economi
and population growth in the market area. Consideration of
electrical demand of the proposed Polk Inlet logging camp is
excluded from this analysis. Studies show that extension of th
Black Bear Lake transmission system to Polk Inlet could provide
more economical energy to the proposed camp than could develop-
ment of the Rock Lake hydro site, but because of the temporary
nature of the logging camp, the Power Authority staff recommend
no further action be taken in this regard unless the Forest
Service agrees to pay for design, construction and maintenance
of the required facilities.
Scenario A is based on projections made by representatives
of the municipalities, native corporations, and local entrepre-
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neurs. Refer to Agency Con~act List, Attachment A. Populatic
estimates were derived from the comments on the Black Bear Lake
Draft Environmental Impact Statement prepared by the City of
Craig, (Attachment B), and from estimates sent by the City of
Thorne Bay to the Power Authority~(Attachment C). The indus-
trial developments were also derived from these documents and
from-discussions with representatives of the existing .indus-
tries, and new business ventures.
Scenario B reflects more conservative estimates of growth,
particularly in terms of population projections. The average
annual growth rate for the period 1982-2001 is about one-half c
the rate presented in Scenario A. Both scenarios assume opera-
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tion and expansion of the existing industries, introduction of
forest product industry in the late 1980's, and resumption of
the fishing industry.
Scenario C assumes a depressed economy. The future popula
tion growth is less than one-half of the historical growth.
Although timber harvesting is assumed to continue, no forest
industry is introduced until the mid 1990's, except in Thorne
Bay where the Louisiana Pacific Corporation has definite plans
to install a chip plant. Activities in the fishing industry
would increase very slowly.
For each community, an analysis of historical trends and
assumptions used in developing the scenarios is presented in tr
following paragraphs. Historical data are presented for the
population, and the electric energy demand of the residential,
commercial and public sector. To maintain consistency with the
projections presented in the License application, the same ap-
preach was used. Estimates of short and long term average an-
nual growth rates of per capita energy consumption and popula-
tion were used to compute the energy demand of the combined
residential-commercial-public sector. The peak demand of this
sector was computed assuming that the historical load factor
increases gradually to 50 percent.
Peak and energy demand projections were made separately fc
the fisheries and forest products industries. For the fisherie
industries, the energy demand of a cold storage facility, whicr
operates between mid-May and mid-September, is estimated to be
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equal to the load demand of operating around the clock for
4 months at a load factor of 60 percent. In addition, if the
facilities are used for bottomfish processing and other year-
round operations, the energy demand for the remaining 8 months
is estimated to be equal to 60 percent of the summer load, oper-
() ating at a load factor of 30 percent. For the forest products
industries, the energy demand is estimated to be equal to the
load demand operating for 3400 hours at a load factor of 60
~1-.. percent.
Table 1 summariezes the results of the load forecast update
and provides a comparison with the previous forecasts which were
prepared in 1981. A detailed presentation of the revised load
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forecast is preeeR~es in the following paragraphs.
A
TABLE 1
COMPARISION OF 1981 AND 1983 LOAD FORECASTS
FOR SCENARIO B (Most Likely Scenario)
Craig-Klawock-Hydaburg
Population
Peak (kw)
Energy ( Mwh)
Thorne Bay
Population
Peak (kw)
Energy (Mwh)
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Year 1986
1981 1983
Forecast Forecast
1910
4670
17410
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2030
2710
9690
460
1280
3400
Year 2001
1981 1983
Forecast Forecast
2820
8140
32190
3030
6310
21890
910
2450
7970
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eJ The major reduction of the load projections is due to the p~t-
ponement, reductions or cancellation of industrial loads in the
fisheries and forest products developments. The updated load
forecast for the communities of Craig, Klawock, and Hydraburg
and the new forecast for Thorne Bay are shown on Exhibits 4
through 9.
Klawock
Population. For the past ten years, the population has
() increased at an average annual growth rate of 7.4 percent. In
1983, the population was about 490. Exhibit 2 presents the
historical data and the annual growth rates. During the past
two years, there was an increase of about 100 people due to the
immigration of former residents and the arrival of new residents
attracted by the economic development of the area.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for
the Prince of Wales Island Regional Government Study, and the
assumptions made by the City of Craig. According to those proj-
( ··, ections, the population of Klawock would contilme its recent _ _,
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rapid growth, with an anticipated population of 900 by 1992.
For the period 1992-2001, an average annual growth rate equal to
5.3 percent {70 percent of the annual growth rate of the pre-
vious decade) was used, resulting in a projected population of
1400 in .the year 2001.
Under Scenario B, the population is not expected to conti-
nue its rapid historical growth because of diminished job oppor-
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tunities. The population is projected to be 500 by 1986, 590 by
1991, and 720 by 2001.
Under Scenario C, the population would remain the same un-
til 1986, and then increase slowly at an average annual growth
rate of 2 percent. The 2001 population would be 660.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector. The completion
and operation of the dock facilities on Klawock Island have re-
vitalized the local economy. Plans are underway to develop new
c·, residential and commercial areas. This fall, the Bureau of In-
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dian Affairs is scheduled to build a road to the northern end of
the community, opening that area to development. A request for
25 additional housing units is pending review by the Department
of Housing and Urban Development. The village corporation is
finalizing financing for a mini-mall, and the state is expanding
its Department of Transportation maintenance shop.
The Department of Transportation and Public Facilities is
upgrading the Klawock airport. The runway will be lengthened
from 2500 feet to 3400 feet. Future funding may allow for pav-
ing and expansion to 6000 feet, giving the Prince of Wales Is-
land a facility to land jet aircraft and cargo planes.
Although there are no immediate plans to expand the lodging
accommodations, an increase in tourism would require more
facilities.
() In the long term, the community of Klawock is expected to
benefit from the logging development in the area, the expansion
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of the dock facilities and the airport, tourism, and renewed
interests in the cannery operations.
As a result of these developments, the per capita consump-
tion of energy is expected to continue to increase. As derived
from Exhibit 2 and 3, the historical per capita consumption in-
creased rapidly from 1610 kWh in 1978 to 2700 kWh in 1982, at
an average annual growth rate of 13.8 percent. By comparison,
the total 1980 per capita consumption, including industrial con-
sumption, was about 7000 kWh for the State of Alaska, and
6000 kWh in Southeast Alaska. The residential per capita con-
sumption was about 3200 kWh for the State of Alaska, and
2800 kWh, in Southeast Alaska.
Under Scenarios A and B, the per capita residential-com-
mercial and public sector energy consumption is expected to
increase at an average annual growth rate of 5 percent until
1986, and then at 3 percent. The total energy demand is expect-
ed to increase from 1169 tfWh in 1982 to 7150 MWh in 2001 under
Scenario A: to 3680 MWh under Scenario B: and to 3250 MWh under
Scenario c. The peak demand would increase from 300 kW to
1630 kW, 840 kW, and 740 kW, respectively.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industries. Although the vil-
lage corporation has decided, for the short term, to terminate
its operation of the existing cannery, they are leasing the
() facilities. A local entrepreneur, with the financing of
Japanese associates, has used some of the existing facilities
during the recent salmon season, and is planning to build a new
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facility for col~ storage and year-round operation (bottomfish
and specialty processing plant).
The resulting load demand is estimated at 250 kW under
Scenarios A and B, increasing to 350 kW by 2001. Under Scenario
c, the load demand is expected to be 200 kW until the mid
() 1990's, and then would increase to 250 kW. The energy demand
was computed using the assumptions described previously.
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industries. The village
and regional native corporations are planning to continue the
timber harvest. For 1983, Klawock Heenya Corporation has sched-
uled a cut of about 17 Million Board Feet (MMBF). The dock fa-
cilities which were completed in 1981 are used for the loading
of round logs to Japan. There is a good possibility that a chip
plant, a mill, or other forest products industries under consi-
deration by the village and regional native corporations, might
be installed in the market area, and more specifically on
Klawock Island. However, for the purpose of these forecasts,
'• 1.J the potential load was kept in Craig and Hydaburg.
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The power and energy requirements of the Alaska Timber Cor-
poration (ATC) are not included because ATC has installed its
own wood waste generation capacity.
Craig
Population. For the past ten years, the population has
(~ increased at an average annual growth rate of 6.8 percent. In
1983, the population was abOut 905. Exhibit 2 presents the his-
torical data and the annual growth rates. During the past two
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years, there was an increase of about 300 people
tion caused by economic development of the area.
due to immigra-
r
The arival
A.
of a large number of new families is changing the character of
the area. Standard of living expectations are much higher for
these new residents than for many long-term residents of the
area.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for
the Prince of Wales Island Regional Government Study, and the
assumptions made by the City of Craig. As shown in "Comments on
the Black Bear Lake Draft Environmental Impact Statement",
(Attachment B), the population of Craig could vary between 1440
and 1800 by 1992, with an anticipated population of 1620. For
the period 1992-2001, an average annual growth rate of 5.1 per-
cent (70 percent of the annual growth rate of the previous
decade) was used. The 2001 population would then be 2480.
Under Scenario B, the population is not expected to conti-
nue its rapid historical growth because of the saturation of the
job market. The population is projected to be 1010 by 1986,
1230 by 1991, and 1500 by 2001. Under Scenario C, the popula-
tion would increase slightly to 1080 in 1991, and 1320 by 2001.
Residential, Commercial, and Public S~ctor. The City of
Craig is developing as a subregional government and service cen-
ter for Prince of Wales Island. The East Craig area is being
developed for residential and commercial lots. The lots are
connected by roads, and water-sewer systems are being installed.
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The following description shows the rapid growth: About
165 building permits were issued in the past 2-1/2 years, more
than 60 water and sewer hookups are programed for the next year,
two new shopping centers have opened, and a small cement plant
is under construction. Financing is being secured for an office
building, a court house, and a jail.
The road between Craig and Klawock has been upgraded, which
facilitates transportation between the communities and Hollis,
the ferry terminal to Ketchikan. Other projects include the
paving of new roads within the city limits, and a marine indus-
trial facility under consideration by the City of Craig and the
Department of Commerce and Economic Development.
The per capita energy consumption was about 2450 kWh in
1982, and is expected to continue to increase steadily to 5700
kWh by 2001 under Scenarios A and B, and 5230 kWh under Scena-
rio c. The total energy demand would increase from 2765 MWh in
1982 to 14,140 MWh in 2001 under Scenario A, to 8550 MWh under
Scenario B, and to 6900 MWh under Scenario c. The load demand
would increase from 630 kW to 3230 kW, 1950 kW, and 1580 kW
respectively.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industries. The new cold
storage facilities of Craig Fisheries are expected to continue
their operations throughout the study period. The load demand
was 300 kW in 1982, and is projected to increase progressively
to 400 kW. Under Scenario A, the facilities are assumed to be
used for year-round processing starting in the early 1990's.
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Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industries. The vil-
lage corporation is actively continuing its timber harvest.
For 1983, they are planning to cut 10 to 15 MJ.I.lBF, and ;W ;;., /"~;td
C) to increase the annual cut to 15-20 MMBF in future years. Shaan
Seet, Incorporated is also studying, with other agencies, the
0 possibilities of using small logs and other lower grade logs for
a more finished product such as particle board. Based on a
conservative interpretation of their projections, a 500 kW load
demand is expected in the late 1980's under Scenarios A and B,
and in the mid 1990's under Scenario c. This load would in-
crease only under Scenario A, to about 750 kW.
Hydaburg
Population. For the past ten years, the population has
increased at an average annual growth rate of 5.5 percent. In
the 1983, the population was about 450. Exhibit 2 presents the
historical data and the annual growth rates. During the past
two years, there was an increase of about 100 people due to the
return of former residents and the arrival of new residents
attracted by the economic development of the area.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for the
0 Prince of Wales Island Regional Government Study, and the as-
sumptions made by the City of Craig. According to those projec-
tions, the population of Hydaburg could vary between 900 and
1260 by 1992, with an anticipated population of 1080. For the
period 1992-2001, an average annual growth rate equal to 7.1
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percent {70 percent of the annual growth rate of the previous
decade) was used. The 2001 population would then be 1950.
Under Scenario B, the population is not expected to conti-
nue its rapid historical growth because of saturation of the
job market. The population is projected to be 520 by 1986, 630
by 1991, and 810 by 2001. Under Scenario C, the population
would be about 580 in 1991, and 710 in 2001.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector. Several major
developments are changing the economic outlook for Hydaburg.
A new road, connecting Hydraburg to the existing Prince of Wales
Island road system, has been completed by the native corpora-
tions. Although it is now only a one-lane logging road, the
Department of Transportation has acquired the right of way and
is planning to upgrade the road in the coming years. This road
transportation network connecting Hydaburg to Craig, Klawock,
Thorne Bay, Hollis and the Klawock airport, will facilitate
trade among the communities and between the communities and the
outside.
The village corporation has constructed a log storage faci-
lity, and a sort yard at Saltery Point, about 2 miles south of
Hydaburg. These facilities are already being used for the ship-
ment of logs. About 20 to 25 ships will be loaded during the
1983 season. Haida Corporation is planning to expand these
facilities, so that they can be used not only for timber trans-
shipment, but also for the shipment and receipt of other goods.
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A 100-man logging camp is also under consideration between Hy-
daburg and Saltery Point.
The building for a new specialty seafood plant has been
completed and equipment installation is under way. This plant
will process salmon and other seafoods and will include a smoke
house. Its goal is the year-round employment of 36 workers.
The City is developing new residential areas, and has re-
quested 20 housing units from the Department of Housing and Ur-
ban Development. They are also securing funding to expand the.
water supply. A 16,000 square foot gymnasium has just been com~
pleted.
The next main development would be the construction of a
deep-water port, and an industrial park, just south of Hydaburg.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industries. As mentioned ear-
lier, a new specialty seafoods plant is under construction,
near the existing facilities. Haida Corporation did not operate
the cold storage facilities during the 1983 summer season be-
cause of the softness of the market, but they are planning to
integrate the existing facilities into the new plant and expect
full operation in the next two to three years. A load demand
for this operation,varying between 350 kW and 450 kW)is project-
ed.
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industries. For 1983,
the village corporation has planned a timber harvest of 25 MMBF,
and would like to maintain an annual cut of about 15 MMBF for
the next ten years. In addition, the regional corporation will
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continue its timber harvest on Dall Island and Long Island,
averaging between 40 and 60 MMBF per year. Most of the logs
would be processed at the Saltery Point sort yard.
Although the chip plant under consideration by Sealaska,
the regional corporation, has been put aside for the short term,
the village corporation and local entrepreneurs are studying
the construction of a cedar, shingle and shake mill. Under
Scenarios A and B, a load demand of 750 kW is projected for the
late 1980's, increasing to 1000 kW by the mid or late 1990's.
Under Scenario C, such a development wou'!d only come in the mid
1990's, and would have a load about 500 kW.
Thorne Bay
Population. Until July 13, 1982, when it became incorpo-
rated as a City of the second class, Thorne Bay was a logging
camp of the Louisiana Pacific Corporation and a Forest Service
District headquarters. As .shown on Exhibit 2, the population
had been decreasing from 550 in the mid 1970's to a low of about
300 in 1979. However, the slow recovery of the timber market,
and the recent sale of residential land parcels by the State of
Alaska has changed the historical trend. By the end of 1983,
about 400 people residents are expected in the city.
Under the State land disposal programs, all Alaskans who
purchase land under the Homesite Laws are required to have a
home built within 4 years after purchase. With the parcels
already sold, 56 homes should be built by 1984.
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Scenario A reflects the population projections made by the
City of Thorne Bay, (see Attachment C). The population projec-
tions were adjusted to reflect the differences in the 1982 base
year. The 2001 population would be 1460.
Under Scenario B, the population is expected to continue to
increase rapidly until the late 1980's, then to increase at an
average annual growth rate of 4 percent during the 1991-96
period and 3 percent thereafter. The 2001 population would be
910. Under Scenario C, the population would increase more
slowly, and would be 700 in 2001.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector. The city li-
mits encompass approximately 22.5 square miles, making it the
largest city on Prince of Wales Island. Of the total, about
1000 acres have been transferred into private ownership under
the state lottery and homesite laws. The city will be able to
select 700 acres under its municipal entitlements for commer-
cial, industrial, and residential zones.
The u.s. Forest Service has a district office which manages
the federal lands of the northern half of the island. They now
have a staff of about 25 full-time employees and 20 summer em-
ployees. They are expanding their housing, offices, and mainte-
nance shop facilities.
The Louisiana Pacific Corporation is still the main source
of employment. They have definite plans to install a chipper
for small logs. If the timber market continues to recover, they
would consider expanding their activities and install a sawmill.
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The .shortage of a cold storage or ice-making facility on
the east coast of Prince of Wales provides Thorne Bay with some
opportunities to develop a fishing industry. Local entrepre-
neurs are studying several possibilities including the farming
of shellfish.
The commercial sector is growing, and is expected to con-
tinue to grow as industry is attracted to the area. Because
Thorne Bay was originally a logging camp, ~any services are not
yet available, and could be developed.
One of the major long-term economic potentials would be the
development of a deep-water port facility in Tolstoi Bay on land
selected by the State of Alaska in 1976 for such a purpose. ~~e
proposed port facility would include a mainline ferry terminal,
barge terminal, and a small boat harbor. However, at this time,
no detailed studies have been done, and no financing has been
secured.
The per capita consumption was about 3040 kWh in 1982, and
is expected to increase to 5760 kWh by 2001 under Scenarios A
and B, and to 5080 kWh under Scenario c. The total energy de-
mand would increase from 1050 MWh in 1982 to 8410 MWh under
Scenario A: to 5240 M~ under Scenario B: and to 3560 MWh under
Scenario c. The peak demand would increase from 300 kW to
1920 kW, 1200 kW, and 810 kW respectively.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industries. The fishing in-
dustry is projected to develop in the form of a cold storage,
ice-making facility and fish buying station for the short-term,
DRAFT 3 -22-
<)
0
(
0
<)
0
)
and to a year-round small processing plant for the long term. 1
load demand of 100 or 200 kW is projected at the beginning, in-
creasing to 150 kW under Scenario C, and to 250 kW under Scena-
rios A and B.
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industries. As nen-
tioned earlier, the Lousiana Pacific Corporation (LPC) is plan-
ning to install a chip plant for small logs this year or next.
Based on discussions with representatives of LPC, the load de-
mand would be about 750 kW. Under Scenarios A and B, an addi-
tional 250 kW was added to reflect potential expansions of this
facility.
ENERGY ALTERNATIVES AND PLANS
Several alternative power and energy sources to serve the
principal market area were examined as a part of the investiga-
tions conducted for the License Application. The alternatives
were screened based on their ability to meet the most likely
scenario of load growth and the most promising alternatives wer
then analyzed based on present worth, using 2.6% annual dif-
ferential fuel escalation, in accordance with Power Authority
guidelines. The reader is referred to the previous report for
complete description of the assumptions and results. No new
studies have been made of the following alternatives:
Coal
Conservation and Load Management
DRAFT 3 -23-
I •
Diesel with Waste Heat Recovery.l/
Lake Mellen (Reynolds Creek) Hydro
Mini-Hydro at Hydaburgll
Interconnection with Swan Lake Hydro
Solar
Wing Energy Conversion Systems
Alternative power and energy sources which have received
further examination are: continued diesel generation, wood
waste generation, Black Bear Lake Hydro generation with full
initial development, (6.0 MW), and Black Bear Lake Hydro with
staged development, (3.0 MW and lower dam, initially). In
addition, the feasibility of adding Thorne Bay to the intercon-
nected power market has also been studied.
Diesel Generation
At present, nearly 100% of the electrical energy needs
of the market area are provided by diesel generators. Diesel
plants have low construction costs, short lead times, and mini-
mal siting problems. However, diesel plants have relatively
high outage rates, (about 29%), and require considerable preven-
tive maintenance. Furthermore, a fuel supply for diesel plants
!I
~/
THREA is currently considering relocating Klawock generat-
ing station to the vicinity of Klawock Fish Hatchery with
the intent of selling waste heat to warm rearing tanks and
ponds. ·
Alaska Power and Telephone Company, (AP&T), applied for
water rights for a mini-hydro project to serve Hydaburg
in 1982, but has taken'no apparent additional steps toward
project implementation during the intervening period.
DRAFT 3 -24-
0
0
'· '
0
must be stored near the plant and the fuel costs are anticipated
to escalate above the rate of inflation over the long term.
The diesel alternative involves continuation of the present
generation, with each community providing its own generation
without interconnection.
Wood Waste Generation
The Alaska Timber Corporation (ATC) at Klawock produces
sawdust and barky wood waste from its production of cants and
pulp chips. Over the years a large pile of wood waste has ac-
cumulted at the mill site and the mill owner desires other
methods of disposing of waste material. In 1977, ATC purchased
boilers, and two 2000 kW and one 2500 kW steam-electric generat-
ing units Which were once used by the u.s. Army in tfuittier.
The units were originally oil-fired and equipped for saltwater
cooling. ATC has modified three boilers to burn wood waste and
~
has constructed a power house and installed one 2000 kW unit at
~
its mill. An additional 2000 kW unit is scheduled to be opera-
tional in 1984.
The mill entered into a contract with THREA to sell second-
ary energy at 10¢/kWh for six months after an interconnection
is made to Klawock. Thereafter the rates would be adjusted.
Under the contract, after 18 months of operation, the contract
could be adjusted to THREA's cost of diesel generation. The
mill uses 1500 kW of capacity leaving 500 kW of capacity from
the first unit to serve Klawock.
DRAFT 3 -25-
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Wood waste for fuel is obtained from the new wastes gener-
ated by the mill operation and from suitable materials in the
existing stockpile. When fully operating, the mill generates
about 200 tons per day of sawdust and bark and another 200 tons
per day of pulp chips. The chips are presently sold for pulp
but could be diverted for generation, if economical, and if re-
quired.
If the 4000 kW \Y'OOd waste plant was to operate at a capaci-
ty factor of SO%, about 53,000 tons of wood waste would be re-
quired per year. Assuming the mill will operate at a plant fac-
tor of 30% (full operation for 110 working days), the mill would
generate 22,000 tons of wood waste annually. The remaining
31,000 tons needed would have to come from the existing stock-
pile or pulp chips.
Data from the operation of the first ATC unit and from a
wood waste plant at Haines show that about six pounds of wood
waste is required to produce a saleable kWh from the plant.
Pulp chips have a slightly higher thermal efficiency than wood
waste and, for this analysis, it was estimated that five pounds
of pulp chips would be required to produce a saleable kWh. At a
50% plant factor, the 4000 kW wood waste plant would produce
17,500,000 kWh per year. Motors, conveyors, pumps, and power-
station lighting is estimated to consume about 15%, or
2,600,000 kWh, of the output. As the mill requires about
6,600,000 kWh per year for its own operation, that would leave~
8,300,000 kWh available for sale to the Craig and Klawock utili-
DRAFT 3 -26-
Q
0
0
)
)
. ]
:)
ties. Transformer, transmission and distribution losses are
estimated at 700,000 kWh.
· The plant would operate similarly to a coal fired plant and
therefore would not be able to easily follow rapid load varia-
tions. Diesel supplement would be needed to pick up load in-
creases. If ATC and diesel were the only forms of power genera-
tion considered, then the transmission line to Hydaburg or
Thorne Bay would not be built since the 7.6 million kWh avail-
able would soon be absorbed by Klawock and Craig. The two vill-
ages would utilize 6,300,000 kWh in 1986 under Scenario C,
7,100,000 kWh under Scenario B and 7,570,000 k\ih under Scenario
A.
Alaska Power Authority staff have not been able to locate
any other Alaska mill that makes a common practice of burning
large volumes of pulp chips for fuel. At best the mill's wood
waste plant should be viewed as an interruptable source of se-
condary energy. Some short term relief might be provided to
Klawock, or to Craig if a favorable power sales contract can
be negotiated. ~qwever, the facility at ATC is first - a waste
disposal facility, second-a.provider of electricity to the
tricity to the mill, and third - a provider of secondary energy
to the grid •
A discussion of the cost of wood waste generation is given
in the February 1982 report. As presented therein, the economic
cost of power for the wood waste alternative was esti~ated to be
DRAFT 3 -27-
0
' '
13.0 ~/kWh at 1981 price levels. This compares to 10.2 ~/kWh
for diesel generation in the market area in 1981.
Under the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act (PURPA)
suppliers of cogenerated energy may charge the utilities avoided
costs for energy. For this analysis, in the absence of any low-
er cost alternative, the cost of wood waste generation is the
avoided cost to the market area of equivalent diesel generation
which is about 12.0 ¢/kWh at January 1983 price levels.
Black ~ ~ Hydro
The Black Bear Lake project, as proposed in the License
Application, would involve a 53 foot high dam on the lake with a
pool at elevation 1720. Water would be conveyed via penstock,
vertical shaft and tunnel to a powerhouse at elevation 250. The
powerhouse would house two 3.0 ~~ Pelton type turbine/generating
units and, with allowances for downstream flow regulation for
fisheries mitigation, the average annual generation would be
23,700 MWh. With transmission, substation, and distribution
losses the project could meet an average annual demand of 21,100
MWh per year.
A two-mile extension of the existing logging road would
be necessary to provide ~ccess for project construction. The
transmission lines would follow existing logging roads and high-
ways on the island as much as possible and no new road or major
clearing of transmission line corridors are needed. A schematic
diagram of the transmission line system is shown on Exhibit 10.
DRAFT 3 -28-
•
0
c
0
0
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Full development of Black Bear Lake and its associated
interconnection of Craig, Klawock and Hydaburg was estimated by
the consultant to cost $ at January 1983 price -------
levels. Operating costs are estimated to be $200,000 per year
inclusive of powerstation, transmission, and diesel reserve
maintenance costs.
As,an alternative to full development of Black Bear Lake
site, the resource could be developed in stages. Preliminary
studies of staged development by the Power Authority's consul-
tant indicate that a low dam, 27 feet in height, could be con-
structed on the same axis as the proposed 53-foot structure and
only one of the 3.0 MW generating units would be installed ini=
tially. The water conduit for this initial stage of· development
would be the same as for the 6 MW plant. The low dam would
provide 2000 acre-feet of useable storage, versus 6850 acre-feet
for full development, and, with 3.0 MW installed, average annual
production would be about 18,000 MWh of saleable energy.
Preliminary estimates indicate that the cost of the initial
development, with transmission line interconnections to Klawock,
Craig, and Hydaburg would be about $ __ million at January 1983
price levels.
The initial development could be subsequently expanded by
raising the concrete gravity dam to its full height of 53 feet
and installation of th~ second 3.0 HW turbine generating unit.
The cost of the second stage development would be about $ __
DRAFT 3 -29-
(~
I !
million at January 1983 price levels, based on preliminary esti-
mates.
Total operation and maintenance costs are estimated to be
$200,000 per year for both stages of development.
Thorne Bay Interconnection
Connection of Thorne Bay to the Black Bear Lake Project
transmission system would require construction of the following:
a substation at the junction of Forest Development Road 5000,
(Klawock-Thorne Bay Road), and the Black Bear Lake Project
access road: a 25.8 mile long, wood pole transmission line: and
a step-down transformer station at Thorne Bay. The transmission
line would follow t~e Klawock-Thorne Bay road throughout its
length. The estimated cost of the transmission line and substa-
tions, at January 1983 levels, is $ ------
Analysis of this option included consideration of Thorne
Bay as a substitute load to be served instead of Hydaburg.
Elimination of the Hydaburg market area represents a $ ________ _
reduction in costs: substitution of Thorne Bay for Hydaburg
results in net savings of $ at January 1983 levels. ----
Operation and maintenance costs for the Thorne Bay and Hy-
daburg segments of the transmission line system are estimated
to be about $50,000 per year, in either case. The total cost
of operation and maintenance for a four city grid is estimated
to be $250,000 per year: for a three city system the cost would
be $200,000 annually with either Thorne Bay or Hydaburg excluded
from the system.
DRAFT 3 -30-
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)
ECONOMIC ~AN~A~LY~S~IS~ _O_F POWER-PLANS
For these updated findings and recommendations, the Power
Authority staff have considered four power plans and four alter-
native transmission intertie combinations for the four community
load system. The four power plans are:
1)
2)
3)
4)
The "Base Case" involving continued diesel generation
in each of the four communities without interconnec-
tion.
Black Bear Lake Hydroelectric Project, fully developed
to 6.0 MW and supplemented by diesel generation as
needed.
Black Bear Lake Hydroelectric Project, developed in
stages, with 3.0 MW and 2000 acre-feet of live storage
in the initial installation, 6.0 MW and 6850 acre-feet
of live storage in the final stage and supplemented by
diesel generation as needed.
Wood waste generation, consisting of 4.0 MW installed
at the Alaska Timber Corporation mill to serve the
needs of the in£erconnected Klawock and Craig market
areas, and supplemented by diesel generation. Loads
in Hydaburg and Thorne Bay would continue to be met bj
diesel generation as in the Base Case.
The four alternative transmission intertie combinations
considered are:
1) Craig, Klawock, Hydraburg and Thorne Bay interconnect·
ed. This alternative was evaluated for both power
DRAFT 3 -31-
plan alternatives involving the Black Bear Lake Hydro-
electric Project.
2) Craig, Klawock, and Hydaburg interconnected; Thorne
Bay served by diesel. This alternative was also eval-
uated only for power plan alternatives involving
either option of Black Bear Lake project development.
3) Craig, K.lawock, and Thorne Bay interconnected:
0 Hydraburg served by diesel. Evaluated only for Black
c Bear Lake generation alternatives.
4) Craig and Klawock interconnected; Thorne Bay and
0 Hydraburg each served by their own diesel generation
0 system. This combination was evaluated for the wood-
waste generation plan and for the two Black Bear Lake
r Hydro development powerplans.
Each power plan and intertie combination was analyzed con-
sidering the three load forecast scenarios, A, B, and c. The
present worths of the four power plans and their associated
() intertie alternatives were calculated using Power Authority
parameters, (3.5% discount rate and 0% inflation). The anlayses
0 were performed using differential fuel cost escalation rates of
either 0% or 2% with fuel costs escalating until year 2001 and
0
then held constant. Since the hydro project could not be on
~ 7
line until 198~, a period of analysis extending to 203fwas used
0 to cover the 50 year economic life of the hydro plans.
Table 2 gives the results of the present worth analyses.
The detailed computations of present worth and an ~xplanation of
DRAFT 3 -32-
specific criteria use in performing these studies is contained
in the Appendix.
(""\
0
(
()
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DRAFT 3 -33-
A t>ASkA POWER.Al..ITHORI"( y
'ACK si~R LAKE PRai .
• ;.;_,, .f -·-·.-:. ..
. ~'-
EXHIBIT 2
HISTORICAL POPULATION DATA
Klawock crai~ H~dabur~ Thorne Ba~
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Year Population Rate Population Rate Population Rate Population Rate --(%) (%) (%) (i1
1973 240 ---467 ---264 ---550
1974 251 4.6 475 1.7 291 10.2 550 0.0
1975 266 6.0 484 1.9 350 20.2 550 o.o
1976 290 9.0 493 1.8 384 9.7 550 o.o
1977 300 3.4 503 2.0 380 -1.0 400 -27.3
1978 350 16.7 560 11.3 380 o.o 375 06.3
1979 404 15.4 620 10.7 381 0.3 300 -20.0
1980 385 -4.7 587 -5.3 381 o.o 320 6.7
1981 390 1.0 56o I -4.6 356 -6.6 320 o.o
1982 433 11.3 8oo.l 42.8 412 15.7 316 .-1. 2
1983 490 13.2 905 13.1 450 9.2 400 26.6
!/ Estimated
EXHIBIT 3
HISTORICAL ELECTRIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Klawock Crai9 H~daburg
Annual Annual Annual
Energy Growth Energy Growth Energy Growth
Year Sales Rate Sales Rate Sales Rate
(MWh) (%) (MWh) (%) (MWh) l%1-·
1973 NA ---918 ---324
1974 NA ---1,054 14.8 466 43.8
1975 NA ---1,200 13.9 551 18.2
1976 NA ---1,332 11.0 725 31.6
1977 NA ---1,483 11.3 675 -6.9
1978 563 ---1,608 8.4 840 24.4
1979 772 37.1 1,857 15.5 901 7.3
1980 833 7.9 2,023 8.9 861 -4.4
1981 867 4.1 2,388 18.0 957 11.1
1982 . 1,169 34.8 2,765 15.8 965 0.8
,
EXHIBIT 5
SCENARIO A
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
TOTAL SYSTEM
1982 1986 1991 1996 2001
Peak Ener2~ Peak Ener2~ Peak Ener2X Peak Ener2~ Peak Ener51y
kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh
Klawock
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,169 470 1,900 760 3,190 1,090 4,760 1,630 7,150
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 200 430 250 690 300 830 300 830 350 970
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total ---soo 1,599 ----=no 2,590 1,060 4,020 1,390 5,590 1,980 8,120.
Crai2
Res./Com. Sector 630 2,765 980 4,280 1,610 7,070 2,280 9,980 3,230 14,140
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 300 600 350 700 350 970 400 1,100 400 1,100
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 500 1,020 750 1;530 750 1,530
Total ""930 "3,'"m T;Jj'O '4,'980 2,460 9,060 3,430 12,,610 4,380 16,770
Hydabur2
Res./Com. Sector 260 965 430 1,700 770 3,230 1,200 5,270 1,970 8,640
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 350 750 450 1,240 450 1,240 450 1,240 450 1,240
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 750 1,530 1,000 2,040 1,000 2,040
Total ----no r.m ---eoo 2,940 T,9'70 '6,"0'00 '2,'6"50 8,"S5'' 3,4"2'0 11, 92o
Thorne Bay
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,050 430 1,700 690 2,910 1,120 4,910 1, 920 8,410
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 0 0 200 340 250 690 250 690 250 690
Forest Products Indust. 50 180 1,000 2,040 1,000 2,040 1,000 2,040 1,000 2,040
Total ~ 1,230 1,630 4,080 1,940 5,640 . 2, 370 7,640 3,170 11,140
Total
Res./Com. Sector 1,490 5,949 2,310 9,580 3,830 16,400 5,690 24,920 8,750 38,340
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 850 1,780 1,250 2,970 1,350 3, 730 1,400 3,860 1,450 4,000
Forest Products Indust. 50 180 1,000 2,040 2,250 4,590 2,750 5,610 2,750 5,610
Total 2,3'90 "1;'909 '4";"560 14,590 "1,430 24,726 9,840 34,390 12,950 47,950
•
EXHIBIT 6
SCENARIO B
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Klawock 1982 Rate 1986 Rate 1991 Rate 1996 Rate 2001
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,700 s.o 3,280 3.0 3,800 3.0 4,410 3.0 S,llO
Population 433 4.0 soo 3.0 S90 2.0 6SO 2.0 720
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,169 1,640 2,240 2,870 3,680
Peak (kW) 300 410 S30 6SO 840
Load Factor (I) 4S 46 48 so so
Craig
3,4SO 4.0 4,.040 3.0 4,680 2.0 S,l70 2.0 S,700
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 800 6.0 1,010 4.0 1,230 2.0 1,360 2.0 l,SOO
Population 2,76S 4,080 S,760 7,030 8,SSO
Energy Consumption (MWh) 630 930 1,310 1,600 1,9SO
Peak (kW) so so so so so
Load Factor (I)
Hydaburg
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,340 s.o 2,840 3.0 3,300 3.0 3,820 3.0 4,430
Population 412 10.0 S20 4.0 630 3.0 730 2.0 810
Energy·consumption (MWh) 96S 1,480 2,080 2,790 3,S90
Peak (kW) 260 370 490 640 820
Load Factor (I) 42 4S 48 so so
Thorne Ba,l
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,040 s.o 3,700 3.0 4,280 3.0 4,960 3.0 S,760
Population 316 10.0 460 7.0 6SO 4.0 790 3.0 910
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,0SO 1,700 2,780 3,920 S,240
Peak (kW) 300 430 660 890 1,200
Load Factor (I) 40 4S 48 so so
t
EXHIBIT 7
SCENARIO B
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
TOTAL SYSTEM
1982 1986 1991 1996 2001
Peak Ener!il~ Peak Ener!il~ Peak Ener!il~ Peak Ener2~ Peak Energy
"""k'W" MWh """k'W" MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh
Klawock
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,169 410 1,640 S30 2,240 6SO 2,870 840 3,680
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 200 430 2SO 690 2SO 690 300 830 3SO 970
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total ~ ~ ~ -r,no --,m; ~ ~ 3,""700 1,190 4,6SO
Crai2
Res./Com. Sector 630 2,76S 930 4,080 1,310 S,760 1,600 7,030 1,9SO 8,SSO
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 300 600 3SO 700 3SO 700 400 800 400 800
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 soo 1,020 soo 1,020 soo 1,020
Total "'9'30 3,365 1,280 4';'7'80 2,160 'T,"48'' 2,50'0 ~ ~ 16,376
H~dabur!il
Res./Com. Sector 260 96S 370 1,480 490 2,080 640 2,790 820 3,S90
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 3SO 7SO 400 1,100 400 1,100 4SO 1,240 4SO 1,240
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 7SO l,S30 1,000 2,040 1,000 2,040
Total "6'iO T;""'1I5 ~ ~ T;640 m 2,090 6,070 '2,'2'70 6,870
Thorne Ba~
Res./Com. Sector 300 l,OSO 430 1,700 660 2,780 890 3,920 1,200 S,240
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 0 0 100 170 lSO 260 200 340 2SO 690
Forest Products Indust. so 180 7SO l,S30 1,000 2,040 1,000 2,040 1,000 2,040
Total ~ T;23'0 T';'2'm) "3";4'00 m r,om5 ·m 6,"3'00 2,'"rn) "r,977
Total
Res./Com. Sector 1,490 S,949 2,140 8,900 2,990 12,860 3,780 16,610 4,810 21,060
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 8SO 1,780 1,100 2,660 l,lSO 2,7SO 1,3SO 3,210 1,4SO 3,700
Forest Products Indust. so 180 7SO l,S30 2,2SO 4,S90 2,SOO S,lOO 2,SOO S,lOO
Total 2,390 7,909 3,990 13,090 6,390 20,200 7,630 24,920 8,760 29,860
II
f ..
EXHIBIT 8
SCENARIO C
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Klawock 1982 Rate 1986 Rate 1991 Rate 1996 Rate 2001
Res./Com. Sector 2,700 4.0 3,160 3.0 3,660 3.0 4,240 3.0 4,920
Population 433 3.0 490 2.0 540 2.0 600 2.0 660
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,169 1,550 1,980 2,540 3,250
Peak (kW) 300 390 470 580 740
Load Factor (%) 45 45 46 48 50
Craig
3,450 3.0 3,880 2.0 4,290 2.0 4,730 2.0 5,230
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) BOO 4.0 940 3.0 1,080 2.0 1,200 2.0 1,320
Population 2,765 3,650 4,630 5,680 6,900
Energy Consumption (MWh) 630 830 1,060 1,290 1,580
Peak (kW) 50 50 50 50 50
Load Factor (%)
Hydaburg
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,340 3.0 2,630 3.0 3,050 3.0 3,540 3.0 4,100
Population 412 s.o 500 3.0 580 2.0 640 2.0 710
Energy Consumption (MWh) 965 1, 310 1,770 2,270 2,910
Peak (kW) 260 350 450 540 670
Load Factor (%) 42 43 45 48 50
Thorne Ba~
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,040 3.0 3,420 3.0 3,970 3.0 4,600 2.0 5,080
Population 316 e.o 430 5.0 550 3.0 640 2.0 700
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,050 1,470 2,180 2,940 3,560
Peak (kW) 300 390 550 700 810
Load Factor (%) 40 43 45 48 50
~ . ,
Exhibit 9
SCENARIO C
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
TOTAL SYSTEM
1982 1986 1991 1996 2001
Peak Ener2~ Peak Ener2~ Peak Ener2~ Peak Ener~ Peak , Energy
kW HWh kW HWh kW HWh kW HWh kW HWh
Klawock
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,169 390 l,SSO 470 1,980 sao 2,S40 740 3,2SO
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 200 430 200 5SO 200 5SO 250 690 2SO 690
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total --sao 1,59"9 --s90 "2,0'70 --.rro 2,S30 -e30 3,230 -ggo 3,940
Craig
Res./Com. Sector 630 2,765 830 3,6SO 1,060 4,630 1,290 S,680 1,580 6,900
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 300 600 300 600 330 660 360 720 400 800
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 500 1,020 soo 1,020
Total ---gjO 3, 365 r.no 4,250 T";390 S,290 2,150 7,420 2,480 8,720
H~dabur2
Res./Com. Sector 260 965 3SO 1,310 4SO 1,770 540 2,270 670 2,910
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 350 750 3SO 860 350 860 400 1,100 400 1,100
Forest Products Induat. 0 0 0 0 0 0 500 1,020 500 1,020
Total -ncr m ---,oo U'70 -mm ~ 1";"'44(i '4,3'§0 ~ ~
Thorne Ba~
Res./Com. Sector 300 l,OSO 390 1,470 5SO 2,180 700 2,490 810 3,560
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 0 0 0 0 100 170 120 210 150 260
Forest Products Induat. so 180 750 1,530 750 1,530 750 1,530 750 1,530
Total 3"50 1,230 1,140 3,000 1,400 3,880 i.";"m 4,680 1, no 5,350
Total
Res./Com. Sector 1,490 5,949 2,140 8,900 2,530 10,560 3,780 13,430 3,800 16,620
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 850 1,780 1,100 2,660 980 2,240 1,350 2,720 1,200 2,850
Forest Products Indust. so 180 750 1,530 750 1,530 2,500 3,570 1,750 3,570
Total 2,3§0 ~ 3,990 13,090 ~ 14,336 "'r."nn 19,780 8,'760 23,040
" 2
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