HomeMy WebLinkAboutBlack Bear Lake Update of Power Market Forecast 1985I
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BLACK BEAR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UPDATE OF POWER MARKET FORECAST
Prepared By
Harza Engineering Company
Draft Report
November 1985
ATTACHMENT B
FERC REPORT
APRIL 1986
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BLACK BEAR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UPDATE OF POWER MARKET FORECAST
Table of Contents
Introduction 1
Summary 2
Overall Methodology 4
Regional Economy 6
Current Economic Activities 6
Fisheries Industry 6
Forest Products Industry 7
Other Activities 9
F.uture Economic Activities 11
Fisheries Industry 11
Forest Products Industry 12
Other Activities 13
Historical Population Data 14
Existing Electric Power Systems 15
Historical Electric Energy Consumption 16
Future Electric Demand 17
Klawock 18
Population 18
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector 19
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry 21
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industry 22
Craig 23
Population 23
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector 24
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry 27
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industry 27
Hydaburg 28
Population 28
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector 29
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry 32
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industry 32
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Table of Contents
(cont'd)
Page
Thorne Bay 33
Population 33
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector 34
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry 37
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industry 37
List of Tables
1. Comparison of Energy Demand Forecasts
2. Number of Requested Building Permits, Craig
List of Exhibits
1. General Map
2. Historical Energy Demand and Forecast
3. Historical Population Data
4. Residential, Commercial and Public Sector
5. Klawock -Monthly Energy Sold
6. Craig -Monthly Energy Sold
7. Hydaburg -Monthly Energy Sold
8. Thorne Bay -Monthly Energy Sold
9. Population and Residential Consumption Forecast
10. Scenario A -Projection of Peak Load and Energy Demand
11. Scenario B -Projection of Peak Load and Energy Demand
12. Scenario C -Projection of Peak Load and Energy Demand
List of Attachments
A Agency Contact List
B Comments on the Black Bear Lake Draft Environmental Impact
Statement Prepared by the City of Craig
·C City of Thorne Bay -Letter sent on August 23, 1982 to the
Alaska Power Authority
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BLACK BEAR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UPDATE OF POWER MARKET FORECAST
Introduction
In 1980, as a part of the feasibility studyll and FERC
license applicationll for the Black Bear Lake hydroelectric
project on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska, a forecast of
electric energy and peak power demand was prepared for the
project's power market area1 the communities of Craig, Klawock,
and Hydaburg. (See Exhibit 1, General Map). The forecast was
updated in the spring of 198311 based on 1980-1982 data, and
continued contact with interested federal, state, local and
private entities. At that time, a load forecast was also made
for a fourth community, Thorne Bay. Studies of the Black Bear
Lake project have continued and an update of the earlier
forecasts of future economic developments and need for electric
energy in the market area has been prepared. The City of Thorne
Bay was also added to the market area.
This report presents the results of the October 1985 update
study. The study is based, in part, on the visit made to the
1/
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Black Bear Lake Project Feasibility Reportr Harza Engineer-
ing Company, Chicago and CH2M Hill Northwest, Anchorage;
1981.
Black Bear Lake Hydroelectric Project on Prince of Wales
Island, Alaska, Application for License Before the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission; Harza Engineering Company;
1981: PERC Project No. 5715-000.
Black Bear Lake Hydroelectric Project Update of Power
Market Forecast: Harza Engineering Company; May 1983.
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power market area from September 10 to September 17, 1985, and
on discussions held with representatives of local governments,
utilities, business entities, and state and federal agencies. A
list of these contacts is presented in Attachment A.
The revised peak and energy demand projections are first
summarized and compared to the forecasts prepared in 1983.
Then, the methodology used to derive the load forecasts is des-
cribed. A general presentation of the local economy, historical
population growth, and existing electric power systems is then
given, followed by a detailed analysis for each community.
Summary
The results of the load forecast update for three scenarios
of load growth are shown in graphical form on Exhibit 2, Histor-
ical Energy Demand and Forecast, and in Table 1. The table
gives the 1984 actual energy demand in the four community power
market area and also compares the last study year forecast of
energy demand made in this report with the forecast that was
prepared in 1983. The last study year was 2001 in the 1983
report and is 2005 in this report. As shown, the updated pro-
jections of future energy demand are generally lower than those
made in 1983. For the four communities, the 1984 energy demand
was 8.9 GWh.
As in the 1983 report, three scenarios of load growth,
identified as Scenarios A, B, and C, were developed for each
community. Under Scenario A, the most optimistic forecast of
economic growth, the total power market energy demand for the
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Klawock
Table 1
COMPARISON OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTS
(MWh)
Year 2001 Year 2005
1984 · Maf 1983 ProJections Updated 1985 Projections
Actual Scenar1o Scenar1o Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario
Demand A B C A B C
Res./Com. Sector 1,740 7,150 3,680 3,250 5,600 3,480 2 1 970
Industrial Sector
Fisheries 0 970 970 690 1,350 1,100 0
Forest Products 100 0 0 0 1,000 300 100
Total 1,840 8,120 4,650 3,940 7,950 4,880 3,070
£!!.!9. Res./Com. Sector. 4,136 14,140 8,550 6,900 12,790 8,680 7,280
Industrial Sector
Fisheries 600 1,100 800 800 1,100 600 600
Forest Products 0 1,530 1,020 1,020 0 0 0
Total 4,736 16,770 10,370 8,720 13,890 9,280 7,880
Hydaburg
Res./Com. Sector 1,152 8,640 3,590 2,910 4,200 2,410 1,810
Industrial Sector
Fisheries 0 1,240 1,240 1,100 1,250 600 0
Forest Products 100 2,040 2,040 1,020 1,500 100 0
Tot a 1 1, 2 5 2 11, 9 2 0 6 , 8 7 0 5 , 0 3 0 6 , 9 50 3 , 11 0 1, 8l 0
Thorne Bay
Res./Com.Sector 1,104 8,410 5,240 3,560 5,410 3,020 2,100
Industrial Sector
Fisheries 0 690 690 260 350 0 0
Forest Products 0 2,040 2,040 1,530 1,500 0 0
Total 1,104 11,140 7,970 5,350 7,260 3,020 2,100
Total
Res./Com. Sector 8,132 38,340 21,060 16,620 28,000 17,590 14,160
Industrial Sector
Fisheries 600 4,000 3,700 2,850 4,050 2,300 600
Forest Products 200 5,610 3,570 5,500 4,000 400 100
Total 8,932 47,950 29,860 23,040 36,050 20,290 14,860
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
RATE % 10. 4 7. 3 5. 7 6. 9 4. 0 2 • 5
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year 2005 is now forecast to be 36.0 GWh versus 48.0 GWh in 2001
under the forecast made in 1983. Under Scenario B, a more con-
servative forecast of growth, the year 2005 total system demand
is forecast to be 20.3 GWh versus 29.9 GWh. Similarly, for
Scenario C, a pessimistic forecast of growth in the power market
area, the year 2005 demand is projected to be 14.9 GWh versus
23.0 GWh.
Scenario B is considered the most likely scenario of econo-
mic growth in the power market area. As such it is the recom-
mended scenario for use in economic comparisons of alternative
sources of power and energy to meet the market area's future
needs. As shown in Table 1 and Exhibit 2, the present Scenario
B forecast is reduced from the Scenario B projection prepared
for the May 1983 report. The reasons for this reduction are:
1. Reevaluation of population growth estimates. Based on
conversations with local officials, growth in the
power market communities is expected to level off.
2. Revision of projected growth in the industrial sector.
The present forecast includes the load demand of only
those future industrial developments for which there
exist definite plans to proceed. The May 1983
Scenario B forecast was less conservative in this
respect.
As shown on Table 1, the projected average annual rates of
growth of energy demand for the study period have been revised
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downward from 10.4 to 6.9% in Scenario A, 7.3 to 4.0% in
Scenario B and 5.7 to 2.5% in Scenario c.
OVerall Methodology
To develop the electric load forecast presented herein,
historical trends in energy consumption, population growth and
economic activities on Prince Wales Island have been reanalyzed.
Specific information was obtained from consumers, fuel sup-
pliers, native representatives and others involved in the econo-
mic development of the communities. Three scenarios of load
growth in each community were developed~ each scenario being
based on different socioeconomic assumptions. As in the 1983
report, the scenarios are identified as Scenarios A, B, and C.
Scenario A is an optimistic scenario, based on projections
made by representatives of the municipalities, native corpora-
tions, and local entrepeneurs (refer to Agency Contact List,
Attachment A). Population estimates are derived from the com-
ments on the Black Bear Lake Draft Environmental Impact State-
ment prepared by the City of Craig (Attachment B), and from
estimates sent by the City of Thorne Bay to the Power Authority
(Attachment C). The industrial developments included in Sce-
nario A are also derived from these documents and from discuss-
ions with representatives of the existing industries and new
business ventures. Scenario A assumes full operation and expan-
sion of the existing industries, introduction of new forest
product industries and redevelopment of the fishing indus try
with increasing cold storage operation and year-round activity.
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Scenario A represents an upper limit estimate of future peak and
energy requirements.
Scenario B reflects more conservative estimates of growth,
particularly in terms of population projections. Based on con-
versations with local officials, it appears that the rapid deve-
lopment of the past four years has reached a plateau, and that
the economic base of the communities is no longer expanding at
the previous high rate. Hydaburg is even experiencing an
economic depression, due to the current bankruptcy status of the
village Native corporation. Scenario B assumes a continuation
of present industrial activities, but new industrial loads are
not included in the forecast unless there are definite plans for
such proposed developments to go ahead.
Scenario C reflects a depressed economy, and a reduction in
state and federal benefits received by the communities. The
future population growth rate is less than one-half of the his-
torical rate. Although timber harvesting is assumed to conti-
nue, no growth in the forest industry is assumed. Activities in
the fishing industry are also assumed to remain at the present
level. Scenario C was developed to present a lower bound esti-
mate of peak and energy requirements, and for use in the
analysis of the financial impacts of such an occurrence.
To maintain consistency with the projections presented in
earlier reports, a similar approach is used. Estimates of
short-and long-term average annual growth rates of per capita
energy consumption and population are used to compute the energy
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demand of the residential sector. The projections for growth in
the commercial and public sectors were made separately. The
peak demand of each sector is computed assuming that the load
factor would remain at the historical level of about 55%.
The industrial sector consists of the fisheries and forest
products industries. Peak and energy demand projections are
made separately for each of these subsectors. For the fisheries
industry, the energy demand of a cold storage facility, which
operates between mid-May and mid-September, is assumed to be
equal to the load demand of operating around the clock for 4
months at a load factor of 60 percent. For facilities that
would be used for bottomfish processing and other year-round
operations, the energy demand for the remaining 8 months of the
year is assumed to be equal to 60 percent of the summer load,
operating at a load factor of 30 percent. For the forest pro-
ducts industry, the energy demand of a facility is based on
operation for 3,400 hours at a load factor of 60 percent.
Regional Economy
A summary of the main economic activities of the power
market area is presented in the following paragraphs.
Current Economic Activities
Fisheries Industry. Fishing, both harvesting and pro-
cessing, has long been the major income-producing activity in
the Craig-Klawock-Hydaburg area. The first cannery started in
Klawock in 1878, followed by a cold storage facility in 1911 in
Craig, and a processing plant in 1927 in Hydaburg. Operation of
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these facilities has fluctuated over the years, depending on
salmon runs and financial resources of the owners. Today,
Klawock Oceanside Fisheries, Inc. has leased the existing can-
nery in Klawock and bought the equipment from the village cor-
poration. In 1985, the first year of operation under the new
management, the cannery operated for the period mid-May to mid-
September. The owners are now looking into the possibility of
expanding the season by processing halibut and other bottomfish.
In Craig, a new cold storage facility was built in 1982 and has
operated since that time during the salmon fishing season. In
Hydaburg, the old cannery building burned in July 1984, however
this building was only used for storage. The shell of a new
specialty seafood facility was built in 1984, and financing is
being arranged to buy refrigeration equipment. The expectation
is that the plant will provide cold storage, and also enable
smoking of salmon and processing of exotic seafood. Operation
could start next year. At the present time, there is no fish
processing facility in Thorne Bay.
The State of Alaska is also engaged in fisheries resource
enhancement with the operation of the Klawock hatchery. In
1985, the hatchery released 22 million chums, 1.3 million cohos,
and 60,000 steelheads. Two additional fish rearing tanks are
planned to be installed in 1986 to increase production to 30
million chums and 3 million cohos.
Forest Products Industry. Prince of Wales Island is abun-
dantly endowed with commercially marketable stands of hemlock,
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spruce and cedar. Close proximity to major saw and pulp mills
in Ketchikan and Annette Island has led to fairly intensive
management and harvesting of timber in the eastern part of the
island near Hollis and Thorne Bay by the Louisiana Pacific Cor-
poration. In 1985, Louisiana Pacific Corporation is planning to
harvest about 100 MMBF in the northeastern part of Prince of
Wales, which will go through the Thorne Bay sort yard. The same
level of activity is planned for the next three to five years.
On the west coast, small sawmills, an essential part of
cannery complexes, first supplied salmon packing boxes and
lumber for local needs. In Craig, a sawmill operated for many
years and during both world wars providing high-grade spruce for
use in airplane construction. But without wartime contracts,
the sawmill was closed. In 1971, construction of the Alaska
Timber Corporation sawmill began in Klawock. This sawmill,
which employed an average of 60 people, shutdown in 1984 under
Chapter 11 of bankruptcy reorganization. The owners, who had
installed a wood waste powerplant and a new computerized system
to cut dimension lumber, are optimistic about settling their
financial problems.
Under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act, local and
regional corporations are entitled to land ownership and are
planning the development of the forest resources. The regional
corporation (Sealaska) selected most of its timberland near
Craig, Klawock, and Hydaburg, and on Dall Island.
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In the period 1981-1983, Sealaska harvested about 90 MMBF
per year, on Prince of Wales and Dall Islands. In 1984, due to
unfavorable market conditions, Sealaska harvested only 15 MMBF.
In 1985, Sealaska expects to harvest about 40 MMBF. Each
village corporation has harvested 10 to 25 MMBF annually. As a
consequence of the timber harvest developments, a multi-purpose
dock was built on Klawock Island, and a sort yard and handling
facility were built on Saltery Point near Hydaburg. All timber
harvested by the Native Corporations is sold as round logs for
export.
Other Activities. In general, activities by state and
local government have increased rapidly during the past decade.
The rise can be attributed to several major factors. First is
the need to serve a growing population. Second, the rise is
probably part of a larger nationwide trend of increased respon-
sibilities and financial resources being returned to state and
local government by the federal government. Finally, increased
levels of public services are being provided beyond those previ-
ously supplied. Examples include parks, playgrounds, better
roads, community centers, libraries, and improved fire and
police protection.
The majority of federal employment on Prince of Wales is
provided by the o.s. Forest Service. Forest Service employees
plan and implement projects (such as sales of standing timber or
road construction), and maintain the island's forest in a care-
taker status. TWo ranger districts have been developed on
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Prince of Wales. A $6.5 million headquarters and housing com-
plex has just been completed in Thorne Bay. This district over-
sees the Forest Service activities on the northern part of
Prince of Wales. The second district, in Craig, is also
expanding its facilities. This district is currently involved
in the development of timber resources in Polk Inlet area.
During the past five years, the road system between the
four communities and Hollis, the ferry terminal, has greatly
improved. A logging road to Hydaburg is being improved to a
2-lane gravel road. The road between Klawock and Craig and part
of the road to Hollis have been paved. The other roads have
been upgraded. The Department of Transportation is also plan-
ning to expand the Klawock airport to 5,000 feet in length which
will allow the landing of cargo planes.
In addition, a fairly significant amount of new housing
construction has occurred recently. This is predominently due
to public housing projects of the U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development (HUD), as well as private housing investment.
New residential roads were opened in Klawock on Bayview Island,
and 25 BUD housing units are now under construction. A 10-unit
apartment building for the elderly will be constructed next
year. In Craig, numerous private homes have been constructed in
the past five years to absorb a population increase of 500. The
village corporation in Craig has built a trailer court which had
48 trailers in it in September 1985. An additional 14 trailers
are expected this year, and 20 next year. In Hydaburg, the city
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has reapplied to the Tlingit Haida Housing Authority to obtain
25 new houses. In Thorne Bay, many residential sites were
obtained under the state homesite laws, and about 20 families
have already settled on the south side of the bay. The Forest
Service has just built four duplexes, three quadraplexes, a
30-man dormitory, and an administration building, all in Thorne
Bay.
Commercial activity has also generally increased. The
village corporation in Klawock has financed the development of a
small supermarket. In Craig, the village corporation has added
a lounge and a restaurant to their 16-room lodge. Two new shop-
ping centers and a small cement plant have opened in the past
two years. In Hydaburg, there is not much commercial activity
at the present time due to the current bankruptcy status of the
village corporation. In Thorne Bay, a new grocery store and a
fish-hunting shop have recently opened. An electrical contrac-
tor and a garage mechanic have also started to operate. Al-
though there are no specific data kept on tourism, it is a grow-
ing sector in Southeast Alaska. With greater road accessability
throughout Prince of Wales, the number of visitors and sport
fishermen is increasing.
Future Economic Activity
An estimate of future economic activities is presented to
provide a basis for the projections of future electric power.
Fisheries Industry. The following factors are expected to
provide a favorable environment for maintaining and developing
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the fisheries industry. Increases of Klawock hatchery produc-
tion and continued management of the salmon harvest should in-
sure a reliable supply of harvestable fish. Adequate abundance
of bottomfish resources seems available, which could allow the
development of that year-round industry. Water supply required
for icemaking and fish processing is being upgraded. In Craig,
a new water supply from Lake St. Nicholas is under construction.
In Hydaburg, the existing water supply dam was reinforced and
two 300,000-gallon tanks are being built.
Conversely, some other factors will continue to limit
further expansion. The high cost of electricity remains a major
handicap. All processing plants are generating their own supply
from diesel generators. Recently imposed state and federal
controls on disposal of sewage may prohibit the practice of
dumping fish waste into bays. Alternative means of disposal
will have to be found, which may impose financial hardship on
some plants.
Consequently, a •boom" development is not expected in the
fisheries industry, but rather a continuation of present prac-
tices associated with moderate growth and long-term development
of the bottomfish industry and more finished products. The
development of the Klawock airport could further enhance these
activities by providing direct delivery to major cities.
Forest Products Industry. Due to depressed markets, the
demand for timber and resulting revenues from timber sales have
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not been as high as expected a few years ago. As a result, the
regional and village corporations have cancelled or delayed
major investments to build facilities to process their timber
resources into a more finished product. In addition, the
village corporation in Hydaburg and the owner of the sawmill in
Klawock have both recently filed for bankruptcy. The village
corporation has stopped all logging activities, and is negotiat-
ing with the u.s. Forest Service to exchange land to increase
their timber resources. The Alaska Timber Corporation, owner of
the sawmill near Klawock, is now under a •trial" production
period. Both situations are expected to be resolved within the
next two years. In the long-term, the dock facilities in
Klawock and the sort yard in Hydaburg could provide the basis
for further development of the forest products industry. In
Thorne Bay, it is expected that the Louisiana Pacific Corpora-
tion will continue to use the sort yard facilities for log ship-
ments to Ketchikan and Annette Island. Louisiana Pacific's
plans for installation of a chip plant have been put aside for
the short term.
Other Activities. The level of public services is likely
to continue to improve in the future. Water supply, sewer sy-
stems, road maintenance, and fire protection are being improved.
The Department of Transportation has just built a new workshop
near the Klawock airport to maintain the road system. During
the past four years, many new facilities were built for the
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school system in Klawock, Craig, and Hydaburg. In Thorne Bay, a
similar program is now underway, and new construction is planned
to start in the next two years.
Tourism is likely to increase with the development of the
road system, the Klawock airport, and possibly a mainline ferry
terminal near Thorne Bay. However, at the present time, there
is a lack of adequate hotel accommodations and no •tourist
package" has yet been developed. A revitalization of the native
cultural heritage and arts and crafts industry has potential for
attracting visitors.
~nother major potential activity is the mining of hard rock
minerals, such as copper, gold, silver, lead and zinc. Mining
was an important activity on Prince of Wales Island at the turn
of the century. Reopening of the Dawson gold mine and a marble
quarry are currently under consideration. In addition, mineral
exploration work by Sealaska Corporation and others has been
underway on Prince of Wales Island for the past five years and
is presently continuing. However, because decisions of whether
or when to proceed with mineral development have not been made,
no power demand for mining is included in the forecast for this
study.
Historical Population ~
Historical population data for the four potential power
market area communities are shown on Exhibit 3. As shown in the
exhibit, the 1985 population of Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg and
Thorne Bay was about 2,582. The average annual growth rate in
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Craig, Klawock, and Hydaburg over the past twelve years was
about 6.8%. Thorne Bay population has been increasing for the
past six years, from a low of 300 people in 1979 to an estimated
430 in 1985. (When Thorne Bay was a Louisiana Pacific Corpora-
tion logging camp, the population averaged about 550 people.)
The population in each community fluctuates seasonally due to
fluctuations in fisheries and forestry employment, and tourism.
Existing Electric Power Systems
Nearly all of the electric power in the area is generated
by small diesel driven generators. The power is distributed
from powerstations in each community to the local consumers.
There are no interconnections of the communities. Klawock is
served by the Tlingit-Haida Regional Electric Authority,
(THREA), a rural electric utility with offices in Juneau. THREA
serves five villages in Southeast Alaska. It also serves the
Klawock cannery but not the Alaska Timber Corporation (ATC),
which has its own diesel and wood waste power generation. Craig
and Hydaburg are served by the Alaska Power and Telephone
Company (APT), an investor-owned utility with offices in Port
Townsend, Washington. The company serves two other towns in
Alaska; Tok and Skagway. Cold storage facilities in both com-
munities have their own generators for seasonal operations. In
1982, the City of Thorne Bay bought the electric generation and
distribution facilities from the Louisiana Pacific Corporation,
and is now generating electric power to meet the requirements of
the community.
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Historical Electric Energy Consumption
Exhibit 4 shows the historical energy consumption, (total
and per capita), in the residential, commercial, and public
sector for the principal market area for the years 1973 through
1984. Per capita use of electricity in these sectors averaged
about 3,550 kWh/yr in 1984, an increase of about 40% during the
past five years. Despite this increase, per capita energy
consumption remains less than one-half of the Alaska average,
indicating substantial potential for growth.
Exhibits 5 through 8 present historical monthly energy
sales for each community. The results for Klawock, presented in
Exhibit 5, indicate that the energy demand of the residential
sector increased by about 17.6% between 1983 and 1984, and by
18.6% during the first 8 months of 1985 as compared to the first
8 months of 1984. Demand in the commercial sector increased by
about 13.6% between 1983 and 1984, and by 3.5% during the first
8 months of 1985. The public sector demand increased by about
4.9% between 1983 and 1984, and by 3.0% during the first 8
months of 1985.
The results for Craig, presented in Exhibit 6, indicate
that, between 1983 and 1984, the energy demand of the
residential sector increased by about 14.8%, commercial sector
demand by 33.8% and the public sector demand by 20.9%. The
total residential-commercial-public demand in Craig increased by
24.3%. No detailed monthly data were available for 1985, but
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total demand increased by about 8.5% during the first eight
months of 1985 compared to the first 8 months of 1985.
The results for Hydaburg, presented in Exhibit 7, indicate
a decrease of 1.5% between 1983 and 1984 in the total energy
demand. This was due to the decrease of 52.3% in the commercial
sector. The energy demand of the residential sector increased
by about 2.7%, and the public sector by 25.3%. No detailed
monthly data were available for 1985. The total demand,
however, continued to decrease by about 9.3% during the first
eight months.
The results for Thorne Bay are presented in Exhibit 8. No
detailed monthly data were available for 1983 which was the
first year of operation of the municipal utility. For the first
6 months of 1985, the energy demand of the residential sector
increased by 24.1%, the commercial sector by 9.0%, the public
sector by 10.2%, and the total demand by 17.6%.
Future Electric Demand
The projections of electric power and energy demand are
presented in the following pages. For each community, a review
of historical population growth is presented, followed by
projections under three scenarios of development. Then, speci-
fic data and projections are presented for each demand sector:
residential, commercial, public, and industrial. Projections
were made separately for the fisheries industry and the forest
products industry. The projections are shown in Exhibits 10
through 12, for Scenarios A, B, and C respectively.
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Klawock
Population. Over the past twelve years, the population has
increased from 240 in 1973 to an estimated 590 in 1985, an
average annual growth rate of 7.8 percent. Exhibit 3 presents
the historical data and the annual growth rates. During the
past four years, there was an increase of about 200 people due
to the immigration of former residents and the arrival of new
residents attracted by economic developments in the area.
The population projections are shown on Exhibit 9.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for the
Prince of Wales Island Regional Government Study and the assump-
tions made by the City of Craig. (Refer to Attachment B).
According to those projections, the population of Klawock would
continue its recent rapid growth. For the period 1985-1990, an
average annual growth of 5% was used, resulting in a projected
population of about 730 by 1990. For the period 1990-2005, an
average annual growth rate of 3.0% was used, resulting in a
projected population of about 1,100 in the year 2005.
Under Scenario B, the population would not continue its
rapid historical growth because of diminished job opportunities.
The population is projected to grow at a rate of 2% annually
throughout the study period. The population would increase to
610 in 1990, and 820 in 2005.
Under Scenario C, the population would increase to 610 by
1990, and 780 by 2005, reflecting a projected average growth
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rate of 2% throughout the 1984-1995 period, and 1.5% for the
period 1995-2005.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector. Plans are
underway to develop new residential and commercial areas. The
Bureau of Indian Affairs has constructed several roads on
Bayview Island at the northern end of the community, opening
that area to development. Twenty-five HUD housing units are
under construction on the island and there are lots available
for an additional 50 units. Next spring, a 10-unit apartment
building for the elderly is also expected to be under construc-
tion. The village corporation has financed the construction of
a mini-mall, which is now in operation.
The State is expanding its Department of Transportation
maintenance shop and is transferring the shop's location to
Klawock airport. The Department of Transportation is also up-
grading the Klawock airport. The runway has recently been
lengthened from 2, 500 feet to 3, 400 feet. The planned paving
and expansion of the runway to a length of 5,000 feet in
1989-1990 will give Prince of wales Island facilities for jet
passenger and cargo planes.
Although there are no immediate plans to expand lodging
accommodations in Klawock, an increase in tourism could induce
expansion of the present facilities.
In the long term, the community of Klawock is expected to
benefit from the logging activity in the area, the expansion of
-19-
the dock facilities and the airport, tourism, and renewed
interests in the operation of cold storage facilities.
As a result of these developments, the per capita consump-
tion of energy is forecast to continue to increase. As shown on
Exhibit 4, the historical per capita consumption increased
rapidly from 1,609 kWh in 1978 to 3,206 kWh in 1984, at an aver-
age annual growth rate of 12%. By comparison, the average 1983
per capita consumption in Alaska was about 6,660 kWh. The resi-
dential sector only, per capita consumption in Klawock was about
1,180 kWh as compared to a statewide average consumption of
2,970 kWh. The projections are presented in Exhibits 9 through
12.
Under Scenario A, the per capita residential consumption is
forecast to increase at an average annual growth rate of 5%
until 1990, and then continue at a 4% annual rate until 1995,
and 3.5% thereafter. The residential energy demand would in-
crease from 640 MWh in 1984 to about 3,000 MWh in 2005. Due to
the large population increase, the commercial sector would con-
tinue its recent rapid development. A 5% annual growth rate is
forecast for the next ten years, followed by a 3% annual growth
rate for the next decade. Demand in the public sector is fore-
cast to increase at the same rate. The total energy demand
would increase from 1,632 MWh in 1984 to 3,500 MWh in 1995, and
5,600 MWh in 2005.
Under Scenario B, the per capita residential consumption
would continue its growth but at a much lower rate. The resi-
-20-
dential energy demand would increase from 640 MWh in 1984 to
about 1,700 MWh in 2005. The demand of the small and large
commercial sectors is not expected to continue their recent
rapid growth. The energy demand of the two sectors is forecast
to grow from 992 MWh in 1984 to 1,400 MWh in 1995, and 1,700 MWh
in 2005. Public sector demand would increase at an average
annual rate of 2% under this scenario. The total energy demand
would increase from 1,632 MWh in 1984 to 2,600 MWh in 1995, and
3,500 MWh in 2005.
Under Scenario C, Klawock's per capita residential consump-
tion would increase at a slower rate than in Scenarios A or B,
and the residential demand in 2005 would be 1,500 MWh. Similar-
ly, the demands of the commercial and public sectors are fore-
cast to increase at annual rates of 2% and 1%, respectively.
The total energy demand would increase from 1,632 MWh in 1984 to
2,300 MWh in 1995 and 3,000 MWh in 2005 under this scenario.
The peak demand would increase from 350 kW in 1984 to 1,150
kW, 750 kW, and 600 kW in 2005, under Scenarios A, B, and C
respectively.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry. In 1983, the
village corporation leased the cannery to a local entrepreneur.
With financing from Japanese associates, this entrepreneur used
some of the existing facilities to make ice. In 1984, the
facilities remained idle because no agreement had been reached
for financing the operation. In 1985, Klawock OCeanside Fish-
eries, Inc. bought the equipment from the village corporation,
-21-
obtained a 5-year lease, and was very active during the June to
September fishing season. The operation's peak demand was about
400 kW, with an energy consumption of about 700 MWh.
The 1985 peak and energy demand is expected to remain the
same for the next ten years, under Scenario B. Because of the
interest in development of a small bottomfish industry, the
energy demand was forecast to increase to 1,100 MWh by the year
2005 to reflect year-round fish processing operations. For
scenario A, the year-round processing operations are assumed to
start earlier, in 1990, resulting in a demand of 1,100 MWh until
the mid 1990's. For year 2005, the peak demand was increased to
500 kW and the energy demand to 1,350 MWh. Under Scenario C, it
is assumed that the entrepreneurs will terminate their operation
by 1990. Thereafter, no load is expected.
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industry. Timber har-
vesting and related activities in the Klawock area are expected
to continue. In 1984, the village corporation, Klawock-Heenya,
harvested 15 Million Board Feet (MMBF} and is expected to har-
vest about 22 MMBF in 1985. Klawock-Heenya is planning to con-
tinue to harvest 20 to 25 MMBF per year for the next 5 years.
Sealaska Corporation is harvesting about 25 MMBF this year in
the Big Salt Lake area. Discussions by the regional and village
corporations to install a chip plant, a mill, or other forest
products facilities in the market area continue. But, for the
purpose of these forecasts, no major expansion in the forest
products industry has been assumed. Island Logging Inc.'s camp
-22-
was closed in 1984. As a result, the camp's demand, which was
estimated to be 600 MWh with a peak demand of 200 kW in 1983,
was not included in any scenario.
The peak demand of the Klawock Island dock facilities was
estimated at 50 kW in 1985, with an annual energy consumption of
100 MWh. Under Scenario B, this demand is expected to remain
about the same until the mid 1990's. Assuming diversification
of the dock facilities, the peak demand is forecast to be 150 kW
by year 2005, with an annual energy demand of 300 MWh. Under
Scenario A, the diversification is assumed to occur by year
1995, with demand continuing to increase to a peak demand of 500
kW by year 2005. Under Scenario C, peak power and energy demand
are assumed to remain at 1985 levels.
The power and energy requirements of the Alaska Timber
Corporation (ATC), are not included in the load growth forecast
because ATC has its own wood waste and diesel generation facil-
ities.
Craig
Population. For the past twelve years, the population has
increased at an average annual growth rate of 7.9 percent. In
1985, the population was estimated to be about 1,167. Exhibit 3
presents the historical population data and the annual growth
rates. During the past three years, the population increased by
more than 500 people due to immigration spurred by economic
development in the area. The arrival of a large number of new
families is changing the character of the area with standard of
-23-
living expectations being much higher for these new residents
than for many long-term residents of the area.
The population projections are presented in Exhibit 9.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for the
Prince of Wales Island Regional Government Study, and the
assumptions made by the City of Craig. As shown in "Comments on
the Black Bear Lake Draft Environmental Impact Statement",
(Attachment B), the population of Craig was forecast to range
between 1,440 and 1,800 by 1992. For Scenario A, a 6% annual
growth rate was assumed for the next five years. For the period
1990-1995, an average annual growth rate of 4% was forecast,
followed by 3% for the next ten years. The 2005 population
would then be about 2,100.
under Scenario B, the population would not continue its
rapid historical growth because of the saturation of the job
market. The population is projected to increase from 1,167 in
1985 to 1,500 by 2005.
Under Scenario C, the population would increase at a rate
of 3% through 1990, 2% between 1990 and 1995, and 1% thereafter.
The population would be about 1,320 in 2005.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector. The City of
Craig is developing as a subregional government and service
center for Prince of Wales Island. The East Craig area is being
developed for residential and commercial lots. The lots are
connected by roads, and water-sewer systems are being in-
stalled.
-24-
Table 2 shows the number of building permits that were
requested in the past seven years. In contrast to the 1980-1983
trend of about 45 permits per year, only 26 permits were re-
quested during 1984, and 25 during the first nine months of
1985.
Table 2
NUMBER OF REQUESTED BUILDING PERMITS, CRAIG
Year Number
1977 4
1978 15
1979 25
1980 39
1981 42
1982 57
1983 48
1984 26
Two new shopping centers, a small cement plant, a court
house, and a jail have recently opened in Craig. The road be-
tween Craig and Klawock has been paved, facilitating transporta-
tion between the two communities and between Craig and Hollis,
with its ferry connection to Ketchikan. Other recent projects
include the paving of new roads within the city limits, and a
marine industrial facility under consideration by the City of
Craig and the Department of Commerce and Economic Development.
As shown in Exhibit 4, the total per capita energy consump-
tion in Craig has more than doubled in the past twelve years
from 1,965 kWh in 1973 to 4,561 kWh in 1984. This growth was
mostly due to the addition of public facilities and shopping
-25-
centers and an increase in residential use of electric appli-
ances. In the future, it is not likely that there will be a
similar expansion of the commercial and public sector. As a
result, the growth rate is expected to decrease.
The residential, commercial and public sector demand fore-. . casts for Cra1g are shown on Exhibits 9 through 12. Under
Scenario A, the per capita residential consumption is forecast
to increase at an average annual growth rate of 4% until 1995,
and then continue at a 3% annual rate. The residential energy
demand would increase from 1,429 MWh in 1984 to 6,850 MWh in
2005. Due to the large population increase, the commercial and
public sectors could be expected to continue their recent rate
of growth. A 5% annual growth rate is forecast for the next
five years, followed by a 4% annual growth rate for the next
five years, and 3% thereafter. The total energy demand would
increase from 4,136 MWh in 1984 to 8,200 MWh in 1995, and 12,800
MWh in 2005.
Under Scenario B, the per capita residential consumption
would continue its growth but at a much lower rate. The resi-
dentia1 energy demand would increase from 1,429 MWh in 1984 to
about 3,900 MWh in 2005. Under this scenario, the demand of the
commercial and public sectors would not be expected to continue
their recent rate of growth. The energy demand of the two sec-
tors is expected to increase from 2,707 MWh in 1984 to 3,700 MWh
in 1995, and 4,750 MWh in 2005. The total energy demand would
-26-
increase from 4,136 MWh in 1984 to 6,350 MWh in 1995, and 8,650
MWh in 2005.
Under Scenario C, Craig's per capita residential consump-
tion would increase at a slower rate than in Scenarios A or B,
and the residential demand in 2005 would be 3,150 MWh. Similar-
ly, the demands of the commercial and public sectors would
increase at annual rates of 2% and 1% respectively during the
1990-2005 period. The total energy demand in Craig would in-
crease from 4,136 MWh in 1984 to 5,800 MWh in 1995 and 7,300 MWh
in 2005 under Scenario C.
The peak demand would increase from 850 kW in 1984 to 2,650
kW, 1,800 kW, and 1,500 kW in 2005, under Scenarios A, B, and C
respectively.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry. The cold storage
facilities at Craig Fisheries are expected to continue their
operations throughout the study period. The peak demand of the
facility was 300 kW in 1984, and its energy demand was estimated
at 600 MWh. The seasonal operations are expected to continue at
that level under Scenarios B and c. Under Scenario A, the
facilities are assumed to be used for year-round processing
starting in the early 1990's, with a peak power demand increas-
ing to 400 kW in 2005, with an annual energy demand of 1,100
MWh.
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industries. Shaan-Seet,
the village corporation, is continuing its timber harvest. The
corporation is planning to harvest about 27 MMBF in 1985. De-
-27-
pending on the market, Shaan-Seet plans to maintain an annual
cut of 20 to 25 MMBF for the next five years. Although the
corporation is still looking into the possibility of using small
logs and other lower grade logs for a more finished product such
as particle board, such a development would most likely occur
near the Klawock Island dock. Consequently, the load projec-
tions for this processing have been included in the Klawock
Scenario A forecast, with an anticipated load demand of 500 kW
in the early 2000's.
Hydaburg
Population. During the period 1973-1983, the population
increased from 265 to 450, at an average annual growth rate of
5.5%. Due to economic difficulties during the past two years,
the population has decreased to 395 in 1985. Exhibit 3 presents
the historical population data and the annual growth rates.
The population projections are presented in Exhibit 9.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for the
Prince of Wales Island Regional Government Study and the assump-
tions made by the City of Craig. According to those projec-
tions, the population of Hydaburg could range between 900 and
1,260 by 1992. Due to the recent decline in population, these
projections were adjusted for the Scenario A forecast. The
population is forecast to regain its 1983 level by 1990. For
the period 1990-2005, an average annual growth rate of 5.0% is
projected. The 2005 population, under this scenario, would be
950.
-28-
Under Scenario B, the population is forecast to remain at
the 1984 level until 1990 and then is projected to increae at an
annual rate of 3%. The 2005 population would be about 670.
Under Scenario C the population is projected to further
decrease during the next five years, and then increase at a 2%
annual growth rate. The 2005 population would be 510.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector. Several major
developments are changing the economic outlook for Hydaburg. A
logging road, connecting Hydaburg to the existing Prince of
Wales Island road system, has been upgraded to a two-lane gravel
road by the Department of Transportation. The resulting road
network, connecting Hydaburg to Craig, Klawock, Throne Bay,
Hollis and the Klawock airport, will facilitate trade among the
communities, and between the communities and the outside.
In 1984, Haida Corporation, the village Native corporation,
constructed a log storage facility and a sort yard at Saltery
Point, about 2 miles south of Hydaburg. These facilities are
being used for the shipment of round logs for export. In 1985,
however, the village corporation filed for bankruptcy and
stopped its logging operations. The regional corporation,
Sealaska, continues to use the sort yard facilities. In the
long term, Haida Corporation would like to expand these facili-
ties so that they can be used not only for timber
trans-shipment, but also for the shipment and receipt of other
goods.
-29-
A logging camp used by the Sealaska Corporation, previously
considered for location between Hydabu~ and Saltery Point, has
been located outside the town along the new road to the north.
Though the camp has its own power supply, two 200-kW diesel
generators, the load demand for the logging camp is included
in the forecast for Hydaburg's forest products industry to
reflect possible connection of the camp to the proposed Black
Bear Lake transmission system.
The building for a new specialty seafood plant has been
completed, and equipment installation is now underway. This
plant_will process salmon and other seafoods and could also
include a smokehouse.
The City is developing new residential areas, and is nego-
tiating with Tlingit and Haida Housing Authority, and the
Department of Housing and Urban Development to obtain about 25
housing units. The City has improved its water supply by rein-
forcing the dam and installing a new pump and two water tanks.
As shown in Exhibit 4, the total per capita energy consump-
tion in the community was about 2,685 kWh in 1984, and has in-
creased at an average annual rate of 6.7\ over the past twelve
years.
The residential, commercial and public sector energy demand
forecasts are shown .on Exhibits 9 through 12. Because of the
current financial constraints experienced by the village corpor-
ation, it is assumed that economic development would be slow or
even negative for the next three to five years. It is also
-30-
assumed that by 1990, the bankruptcy would be resolved and
economic development would start again. Under Scenario A, the
per capita residential energy consumption is forecast to
increase at an average annual growth rate of 3% until 1990, and
then continue at a 5% annual rate. The residential energy
demand would increase from 538 MWh in 1984 to 2,950 MWh in 2005.
The demand of the commercial and public sectors is forecast to
increase at a 2% annual growth rate between now and 1995. After
1995, a 10% annual growth rate is expected for the next five
years, followed by a 6% annual growth rate for the next decade
in the commercial sector. Public sector demand is forecast to
increase at a lower rate, 3% per year. The total energy demand
would increase from 1,152 MWh in 1984 to 1,950 MWh in 1995, and
4,200 MWh in 2005 under Scenario A.
Under Scenario B, the per capita residential consumption
would continue its growth but at a moderate rate. The residen-
tial energy demand would increase from 583 MWh in 1984 to about
1,400 MWh in 2005. The demand of the commercial sector is
expected to increase only slightly over the next five years due
to financial constraints on the village corporation. However,
after 1990, the demand of commercial sector, which is now under-
developed, is expected to increase at a 4% annual growth rate.
Public sector demand is expected to increase at an average
annual rate of 2%. The energy demand of the two sectors is
expected to increase from 614 MWh in 1984 to 780 MWh in 1995,
and 1,000 MWh in 2005. The total energy demand would increase
-31-
from 1,152 MWh in 1984 to 1,650 MWh in 1995, and 2,400 MWh in
2005 under Scenario B.
Under Scenario C, Hydaburg's per capita residential energy
consumption would increase at a slower rate than in Scenarios A
or B, and the residential demand in 2005 would be about 930 MWh.
Similarly, the demands of the commercial and public sectors are
forecast to increase at annual rates of 2% and 1.5%. The total
energy demand in Hydaburg would increase from 1,152 MWh in 1984
to 1,400 MWh in 1995 and 1,800 MWh in 2005.
The peak demand would increase from 250 kW in 1984 to 850
kW, 500 kW, and 400 kW in 2005, under Scenarios A, B, and C
respectively.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry. The city has ob-
tained a federal grant of $600,000 and a state grant of $200,000
to buy refrigeration equipment for the new specially seafoods
plant. The legislature has also appropriated $250,000 to build
a new dock where the old cannery burned down. Operation of the
new facilities could start next year.
Under Scenario A, the facilities are forecast to operate
year-round, with a peak demand increasing from 300 kW in 1990 to
450 kW in 2005. Under Scenario B, the facilities are expected
to operate only during the fishing season, with an annual peak
load demand of 300 kW. Under Scenario C, the facilities are not
expected to operate.
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industries. No logging
was done in 1985 by Haida Corporation because it had filed for
-32-
bankruptcy. The corporation is negotiating with the US Forest
Service to exchange land and increase its timber resources. It
is expected to be at least two years before Haida Corporation
resumes its normal timber operations.
Sealaska Corporation, is planning a 1985 harvest of 15 MMBF
in the Hydaburg area. When the lumber market picks up again,
Sealaska expects to resume harvesting of 20 to 25 MMBF per year
in the area. Most of the logs would be processed at the Saltery
Point sort yard.
The construction of a cedar mill, shingle and shake mill,
or a chip plant, under consideration by Sealaska Corporation,
has been put aside for the short term. A peak demand for this
facility of 500 kW beginning in the mid 1990's, increasing to
750 kW by 2005 is added to the logging camp load demand for the
Scenario A forecast only. Under Scenario B, only the load
demand of the logging camp is included in the forest industry
forecast. The camp's demand in 1985 was estimated to be 50 kW
and 100 MWh and is expected to remain at those levels through
2005, under Scenarios A and B. No forest industry load is in-
cluded in the Scenario C forecast for Hydaburg.
Thorne Bay
Population. Until July 13, 1982, when it became incor-
porated as a second class city, Thorne Bay was a logging.camp of
the Louisiana Pacific Corporation and a Forest Service District
headquarters. As shown on Exhibit 3, the population decreased
from 550 in the mid-1970's to a low of about 300 in 1979.
-33-
However, the slow recovery of the timber market and the recent
sale of residential land parcels by the State of Alaska has
changed the historical trend. In 1985, the population was
estimated to be 430.
The population projections for Thorne Bay are presented in
Exhibit 9. Scenario A reflects the population projections made
by the City of Thorne Bay (see Attachment C). The population
is projected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 8%
until 1990, and 5% thereafter. By 2005, the population would be
about 1,300 under this scenario.
Under Scenario B, the population is projected to continue
to increase at an average annual rate of 5% until 1990, and then
to increase at an average annual growth rate of 3%. The 2005
population would be 820.
Under Scenario C, the population would remain constant
through 1990 and then increase at a 2% annual rate to 530 in
2005.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector. The city lim-
its encompass approximately 22.5 square miles, making it the
largest city, in area, on Prince of Wales Island. Of the total
area, about 1,000 acres have been transferred into private own-
ership under the state lottery and homesite laws. The City is
selecting 700 acres under its municipal entitlements for commer-
cial, industrial, and residental zones.
The u.s. Forest Service has a large district office which
manages the federal lands on the northern half of Prince of
-34-
Wales Island and has recently completed a $6.5 million head-
quarters and housing complex. The new complex consists of an
administration building, a multi-service warehouse, a fuel
plant, four duplexes, three quadraplexes, and a 30-man dormi-
tory. The Forest Service now has a staff of 43 full-time
employees and about 20 seasonal employees. A total of 115
people are living in the Forest Service complex. An additional
10 to 15 engineering employees are expected to move permanently
to Thorne Bay.
The commercial sector in Thorne Bay is growing, and is
expected to continue to grow as industry is attracted to the
area. Because Thorne Bay was originally a logging camp, many
services are not yet available, but could be developed. The
Department of Transportation is planning to build a small boat
harbor in Thorne Bay.
One major long-term project would be the construction of a
deep-water port facility in an area of Tolstoi Bay selected by
the State of Alaska in 1976 for such a purpose. The proposed
port facility would include a mainline ferry terminal, and a
barge terminal. A reconnaissance study of such a port develop-
ment is being performed for the cities of Thorne Bay and
Kasaan.
As shown in Exhibit 4, the total per capita energy consump-
tion in Thorne Bay was about 2,816 kWh in 1984. The projections
are presented in Exhibits 9 through 12. Under Scenario A, the
per capita residential consumption is forecast to increase at an
-35-
average annual growth rate of 5% until 1990, and then continue
increasing at a 3% annual rate. The residential energy demand
would increase from 626 MWh in 1984 to 4,300 MWh in 2005. Due
to the large population increase, the commercial sector could be
expected to grow rapidly. A 5% annual growth rate is forecast
for the next ten years, followed by a 3% annual growth rate for
the following decade. Public sector demand is forecast to
increase at the same rate. The total energy demand would
increase from 1,104 MWh in 1984 to 2,790 MWh in 1995, and 5,410
MWh in 2005.
Under Scenario B, the per capita residential energy con-
sumption would continue its growth but at a more moderate rate.
The residential energy demand would increase from 626 MWh in
1984 to about 2,100 MWh in 2005. Growth in the small commercial
and public sectors is expected to keep pace with the expanding
population. The energy demand of the two sectors is expected to
increase from 508 MWh in 1984 to 710 MWh in 1995, and 930 MWh in
2005. The total energy demand would increase from 1,104 MWh in
1984 to 1,990 MWh in 1995, and 3,020 MWh in 2005.
Under Scenario c, Thorne Bay's per capita residential con-
sumption would increase at a lower rate than in Scenarios A or
B, and the residential demand in 2005 would be 1,280 MWh.
Similarly, the demand of the commercial and public sectors is
expected to increase at a lower rate. The total energy demand
would increase from 1,104 MWh in 1984 to 1,540 MWh in 1995 and
2,100 MWh in 2005.
-36-
The peak demand would increase from 250 kW in 1984 to 1,150
kW, 650 kW, and 450 kW in 2005, under Scenarios A, B, and C
respectively.
Industrial Sector, Fisheries Industry. Thorne Bay has no
fishing industry. The lack of a cold storage or ice-making
facility on the east coast of Prince of Wales Island, however,
provides some opportunities for such development.
Because of the many uncertainties in this subsector of the
economy, projected loads are included only under Scenario A.
Under this scenario, the fishing industry would develop in the
form of a cold storage, ice-making facility and fish buying
station. A load demand of 100 kW is projected at the beginning
of the study period, increasing to 200 kW in 2005.
Industrial Sector, Forest Products Industry. The Louisiana
Pacific Corporation proposal to install a chip plant for small
logs has been put aside for the short term. The load demand,
which was estimated at about 750 kW is included only under
Scenario A, starting in the mid 1990's.
-37-
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KEY MAP
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tXt-HI\! i l --··=..-=• ... ~ ... ,
. lceltO 1 ~:.~ 4 • • 11 ......
1'100,000
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ANCHORAGE, ALASKA
GENERAL MAP
..... HISTORICAL FORECAST, FOUR COMMUNTIES DATA .. 1 ...
35,000 35,000
30,000 30,000
25,000 -r-25,000
:i: ;;:-....
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a :i 20,000 I I I _..,_Mp."~";. t.ft~ :::::;;:ooa"".., 20,000
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···-1 -JJesg:CO:LL DEMUD ~-I l••.ooo
5,ooo I :;;rfl.J;t"0:. r-lt::~;.:;~~:-::::::::::::-:----f-------+--------1 RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL 5,000
AND PUBLIC SECTORS DEMAND
0 ' I I I:' D "4'"X1tD I ' I I I I I ' 0
1910 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
YEAR
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
BLACK BEAR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
HISTORICAL ENERGY DEMAND
AND FORECAST
~ ENGINII!I!~ COIVIPANV NOV£,__R 198!5
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EXHIBIT 3
HISTORICAL POPULATION DATA
Klawock Craig H~daburg Thorne Ba~
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Year Population Rate Population Rate Population Rate Population Rate --(% ) (%) (%) (T)
1973 240 ---467 ---264 ---550
1974 251 4.6 475 1.7 291 10.2 550 o.o
1975 266 6.0 484 1.9 350 20.2 550 o.o
1976 290 9.0 493 1.8 384 9.7 550 o.o
1977 300 3.4 503 2.0 380 -1.0 400 -27.3
1978 350 16.7 560 11.3 380 o.o 375 -6.3
1979 404 15.4 620 10.7 381 0.3 300 -20.0
1980 385 -4.7 587 -5.3 381 o.o 320 6.7
1981 390 1.0 560 -4.6 356 -6.6 320 o.o
1982 433 11. 3 604 7.8 412 15.7 316 -1.2
1983 490 13.2 905 49.8 450 9.2 400 26.6
1984 543 10.8 907 0.2 429 -4.7 392 -2.0
1985 59ol.1 8.6 116 7..1.1 28.7 395J.I -7.9 43ol.1 9.7
!/ Estimated by the communities.
EXHIBIT 4
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Historical Electric Ener2~ Consumetion
Klawock crai2 H;tdaburg Thorne Ba:t
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Energy Growth Energy Growth Energy Growth Energy Growth
Year Consumetion Rate Consumetion Rate Consu~tion Rate Consumetion Rate
(MWh) ( ') (MWh) (') ( M ) (') (MWh) ( ')
1973 NA 918 324 NA
1974 NA 1,054 14.8 466 43.8 NA
1975 NA 1,200 13.9 551 18.2 NA
1976 NA 1,332 11.0 725 31.6 NA
1977 NA 1,483 11.3 675 -6.9 NA
1978 563 1,608 8.4 840 24.4 NA
1979 772 37.1 1,857 15.5 901 7.3 NA
1980 833 7.9 2,023 8.9 861 -4.4 NA
1981 867 4.1 2,317 14.5 956 11.1 NA
1982 1,299 49.8 2,765 19.3 965 0.8 NA
1983 1,527 17.6 3,327 20.3 1,171 21.3 758
1984 1,741 14.0 4,137 24.3 1,152 -1.6 1,022 34.8
Klawock
Per caeita Consumetion
Crai2 H:tdabur2 Thorne Ba;t
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Energy Growth Energy Growth Energy Growth Energy Growth
!!.!.:: Consumetion Rate consumrtion Rate Consumetion Rate Consumetion Rate
(kWh) (') (kWh (') (kWh) (') (kWh) ( ' )
1973 NA 1,965 1,227 NA
1974 NA 2,219 12.9 1,601 30.5 NA
1975 NA 2,479 11.7 1, 574 -1.7 NA
1976 NA 2,702 9.0 1,888 20.0 NA
1977 NA 2,948 9.1 1,776 -5.9 NA
1978 1,609 2,871 -2.6 2, 211 24.5 NA
1979 1, 911 18.7 2,995 4.3 2,365 7.0 NA
1980 2,164 13.3 3,446 15.1 2,260 -4.4 NA
1981 2,223 2.9 4,137 23.7 2,688 18.9 NA
1982 3,000 34.9 4.578 10.6 2,342 -12.9 NA
1983 3,116 3.9 3.676 -19.7 2,602 11.1 1, 895
1984 3,206 2.9 4,561 24.1 2,685 3.2 2,816 48.6
NA: Not Available.
EXHIBIT 5
KLAWOCK
MONTHLY ENERGY SOLD
(MWh)
Public
Small Large Building
Year 1983 Residential Commercial Commercial & Li2htin2 Total
January 39 41 39 9 128
February 42 41 36 10 130
March 41 34 32 10 118
April 48 53 29 9 139
May 46 37 30 6 119
June 53 34 15 5 107
July 38 34 26 5 104
August 42 37 23 6 108
September 47 47 34 10 139
October 41 41 31 7 120
November 43 43 31 11 128
December 64 60 43 ..ll 181
Total 544 503 371 103 1,521
Year 1984
January 53 47 23 12 134
February 52 49 18 12 131
March 45 40 62 10 156
April 59 59 43 9 170
May 57 28 55 6 146
June 45 29 25 5 104
July 46 26 50 8 131
August 52 28 40 6 126
September 50 41 47 7 145
October 61 43 56 9 170
November 62 41 54 13 170
December 57 38 49 _ll 157 --
Total 640 471 522 108 1,740
Year 1985
January 66 48 50 13 177
February 53 31 44 11 140
March 52 25 46 9 132
April 68 35 44 7 155
May 72 33 58 9 172
June 70 35 44 7 156
July 48 28 28 5 109
August 57 29 65 8 158
Note: Totals might not add up due to rounding.
EXHIBIT 6
CRAIG
MONTHLY ENERGY SOLD
( MWh)
Public
Building
Year 1983 Residential Commercial & Lighting Total
January 122 105 53 280
February 121 99 66 287
March 94 90 61 245
April 111 100 54 264
May 87 100 41 228
June 92 107 35 234
July 91 122 32 245
August 90 166 35 292
September 97 154 41 292
october 104 140 59 302
November 114 140 69 323
December 121 139 73 333 -
Total 1,244 1,464 619 3, 327
Year 1984
January 152 161 78 391
February 133 158 75 366
March 105 132 63 300
April 113 170 68 351
May 110 151 56 317
June 103 181 49 334
July 98 173 47 318
August 106 184 44 334
September 112 173 62 347
october 121 165 60 346
November 130 157 75 362
December 146 153 71 370 -
Total 1,429 1,960 748 4,137
Note: Totals might not add up due to rounding.
EXHIBIT 7
HYDABURG
MONTHLY ENERGY SOLD
(MWh)
Public
Building
Year 1983 Residential Commercial & Lighting Total
January 48 20 26 94
February 51 21 30 101
March 38 19 28 85
April 41 so 28 119
May 42 32 28 102
June 42 28 24 95
July 40 26 21 88
August 43 10 31 85
September 53 8 43 104
October 45 12 44 101
November 26 9 41 76
December 54 16 so 120 -
Total 525 252 394 1,171
Year 1984
January so 16 47 114
February 44 15 47 107
March 42 10 45 97
April 47 8 55 110
May 45 12 43 100
June 44 9 34 88
July 44 8 25 76
August 42 9 23 75
September 43 6 38 87
October 46 9 44 99
November 44 8 46 98
December 47 8 45 100
Total 539 120 494 1,153
Note: ·Totals might not add up due to rounding.
EXHIBIT 8
THORNE BAY
MONTHLY ENERGY SOLD
( MWh)
Public
Building
Year 1983 Residential Commercial & Lighting Total
January NA
February NA
March NA
April 54
May 50
June N 0 T A v A I L A B L E 46
July 62
August 58
September 61
OCtober 89
November 96
December 92
Year 1984
January 53 25 18 96
February 47 29 18 94
March 49 31 12 92
April 44 21 11 76
May 44 21 10 75
June 45 18 9 72
July 44 20 8 72
August 48 26 8 82
September 50 38 9 97
october 60 33 20 113
November 68 26 20 114
December _21. 26 21 120
Total 626 316 162 1,104
Year 1985
January 64 19 20 103
February 58 16 20 94
March 61 33 20 114
April 59 27 9 95
May 55 27 8 90
June 53 36 9 98
Note: Totals might not add up due to rounding.
EXHIBIT 9
POP\l.ATl~ AN> RESIDENTIAL CONSti'PTI~ FORECAST
Annual Annutl Annual
Gra•th Gro•th Gro•th
1984 llatl 1""' l!att 19'15 llatt 2005
KI.AioUK
Sttnar i a A
Pa~ulation 543 5.111 7'ZI! 3.111 844 3.01 t.t~
Ptr CIP i t1 Cansuept ion I kWh l 1·1'1'1 5.01 I ,57'f 4.01 1"22 3.51 2. 711
lin i dtnt i al ConsutPt ian (lllh l 1.40 t. 149 1 .1.21 3.073
Sctnar io 8
Papulation 543 2.111 !.12 2.111 675 2.111 823
Ptr CIP ita CantutPt ian (kWh) bl?'f 4 .Ill 1·'" 3.01 t.m 2.01 2.108
l!ts i dtnt i al Co~tSUIP t i an ( I'IWh l 1.40 '12 1· 167 t. 734
Sctlllr io C
Papulation 543 2.01 612 2.01 675 1.51 784
Ptr Capite Cansueotion !kllhl t.17'f 3.01 1.407 2.01 1·554 2.01 1·8'4
llttidtntial Can1u1111tion (lllhl 1.40 861 1·049 1.484
CRAIG
Sctntr ia A
Po11u Itt ian '107 6.01 1.287 4.01 1·565 3.111 2·1D4
Ptr C111i tl CantutPtioll lkllhl t.S76 4.01 lr'1'14 4.01 2.425 3.01 3·21.0
llttidtntial CantutPtion !lllhl 1 ,42'f 2·565 3.m 6.857
Sctnar ia B
Pcoulatio11 907 4 .Ill I• 148 2.111 1·21o7 2.111 1·545
Per Capita Consueption (klolhl 1•571. 3.111 t.BBI 2.111 2,077 2.01 2.532
l!tsidtntial Cantueption II'IUI.) lo42'f 2olS9 2.632 Mil
Sctnar ia C
PaPulttian 907 3.01 1·083 2.111 1· 196 1.01 1·321
Ptr C10ita ContuiPtian (kWh) t.S711 2.01 1.774 2.111 1.959 2 .Ill 2.381!
l!t~idtntial ContutPtion (¥) t.42'f 1.'122 2·342 3.154
HYOMI.JfG
Sctnaria A
Populatia11 42'f 1.01 455 5.111 Sill 5.01 947
Ptr (api tl Contu•ptiall !kWh) 1·2'54 3.111 t.497 5.111 t.m S.Dt. J,m
l!tt idtnt ial Can1u111t ian (lllh) 538 6112 t.111 2.947
Sctnar io B
Popullt ian 42'f 0.01 42' 3.111 m 3.01 !.Dil
Ptr CIPi t1 Cansu•~t ion lkllhl I' 2'54 3.01 lo497 3.111 t.'IJI. 2.01 ZtliD
htidwntial Cantueption (!Utl S38 642 843 1.414
Sctnar i o C
Population 42'f -2 .Ill 3811 2.111 420 2.111 Sll
Ptr c.,; ta Consu•ptiOII (kY.) 1.2'54 2.111 1·412 2.111 1·55'1 1.51 1 .eta
llttidtntoal CantuiPtion (fU,) 538 537 654 'f.!D
TIO!!E SAY
Sctnar~ a t\
Po11ullt 1 on :m B.IJI b22 5.111 7'f4 S.IJI It 2'3
Per Capite Cantut~~~tian (kY.l t.5'7 S.OI 2·140 3.111 2·481 3.01 3o334
l!uidtntial Con1111111ti1111 (¥) &26 lo331 "'10 4o312
Sctna~ia B
Popullt ian :m 5.111 525 3.111 DO'! 3.111 818
Ptr Ca,itl Consut~~~tion lkY.) lo5'17 2.5l 1·852 2.Sl 2·11'15 2.0t. z,s54
itl i dint i al Consu1pt ion ( lllh I 4126 '173 1.2711 2 ,Q'IIl
Sctnuio C
P01111l1tilln :m 0.111 :m 2.111 433 2.0t. 528
Ptr c., i tl Cantultlt ian HY. l t.S97 2 .Ill 1.'1'111 2.111 1.986 2.111 2·420
ittidtlltial Cllnlut~~~tian (¥) .Zio 70S 85' 1.m
SCENARIO A-Projection at Peak Load and Energy Dt11nd EXHIBIT 10
Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth
1984 Rate 1990 Rate 1995 Rate 2005
--------------------------------------·
___________ ...
kW l\lh (1) kW I'Uh (1) kW I'Uh (1) klol !'ll.lh
KLAWOCK
Residential Sales 1n 040 N A 239 1t149 N A 336 1,m N A El38 3,073
Stall Ca11trcial Sales 98 470 5.01 131 El30 5.01 1El7 804 3.01 Z24 1.o8o
Large CD11trcial Salts 108 522 5.01 145 700 5.01 185 893 3.01 249 1·200
Pub I i c Bu i I ding L Lighting 22 108 5.01 30 145 5.01 38 185 3.01 52 24B
Industrial Salts
Fisheries Industry 0 0 N A 400 1·100 0.01 400 1·100 N A SOD 1,350
Forest Products Industry SD 100 0.01 50 100 N A 150 300 N A son 1.oao
Total Sales 411 1,840 995 3.823 1.277 1;,902 2.163 7o9S2
CRAIG
Residential Sales 297 1429 N A 532 2,565 N A 788 3,797 N A 1,423 f1,8S7
Ca11trcial Sales 407 1,959 5.111 545 21625 4.01 1163 MU 3.01 891 4,292
Public Bui I ding L Lighting 155 748 5.01 208 11002 4.01 253 1,Z2Q 3.01 340 11639
Industrial Sales
Fisheries Industry 300 cOD 0.111 300 600 N A 400 11100 0.01 400 1.100
Forest Products Industry D 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 D 0 0.01 0 0
Total Sales 1, 1SB 1;,73El t,sas 6,793 2.104 9,310 3,054 13.889
HYDABURG
Residential Sates 112 538 N A 142 682 N A 231 1,111 N A El12 2,947
CoJttrcial Sales 25 120 2.01 28 135 10.01 45 218 c.o1 81 390
Pub I i c Bu i I d i n9 L Lighting 103 494 2.01 115 550 3.01 134 D4S 3.01 180 867
lndustr ia I Sa I es
Fisheries Industry 0 0 N A 300 850 N A 300 850 N A 450 1.2sa
Forest Products Industry 50 100 N A so 100 N A soc 1>020 N A 7SO 1 ,sao
Total Sales 289 1>252 635 21323 1>210 3,843 2,073 E,,9S4
THORNE BAY
Residential Sales 130 626 N A 27El 11331 N A 409 b970 H A 895 41312
Ca11trcial Sales M 31El 5.01 88 423 5.01 112 540 3.01 151 726
Public Bui I ding L Lighting 34 162 5.01 45 217 5.01 sa 277 3.01 77 372
Industrial Sales
Fisheries Industry 0 0 N A 100 200 0.01 100 200 N A 200 350
Forest Products Industry 0 0 0.01 0 0 N A 7SO 11500 0.01 7SD 1 ,sao
Total Sales m 1,104 509 2,172 b42B 4,487 2,073 7o260
TOTAL SALES 2,088 5,932 3.724 15,111 E,,019 22,543 9,362 JO,QS4
SCENARIO B-Projection ot Ptak Load and Entrgy D111nd EXHIBIT 11
Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth
11184 Rltt 19110 Rate 19115 Rate 200S
---------------------------- ---------------------------kiJ lllh (f.) kW lllh (f.) kW lllh (f.) kiJ ~'~~~~"
KLAWOCK
Residential Sales 133 640 N A 1811 1112 N A 242 1·167 N A 360 1.734
S•all Ca11ercial Sales liB 470 3.01 116 501 3.01 13S 6S1 2.01 loS 7113
Large Coa•trcial Sales lOB S22 2.01 122 sea 2.01 13S 6411 2.01 164 7111
Pub I ic Bui I ding L Lighting 22 108 2.01 2S 122 2.01 28 134 2.01 34 164
Industrial Sales
Fisherits Industry 0 0 N A 400 700 0.01 400 700 N A 400 1·100
Forest Products Industry so 100 0.01 so 100 0.01 so 100 N A 1SO 300
Total Sales 411 1,840 1103 2·1183 9110 3.401 1.m 4.882
CRAIG
Residential Sales 2117 14211 N A 448 2,1SII N A S46 2,632 N A 812 3.1111
Co••ercial Seles 407 1.11511 3.01 4& 2.3311 3.01 S63 2.712 2.SY. 720 3.471
Public Building L Lighting 1SS 748 3.01 18S 8113 2.SY. 210 bOll 2.SY. 2o8 1,2114
Industrial Sales
Fisheries Industry 300 oOO 0.01 300 600 0.01 300 oDD D.OY. 300 600
Farest Products Industry 0 0 D.OY. 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 D D
Total Sales 1•1S8 4,736 1.4111 s.11111 1.6111 otiiS4 2.101 11.276
HYDABURG
Residential Sales 112 S38 N A 133 o42 N A 1711 &3 N A 2114 1.414
Ca11erc:i a I Sa I es 2S 120 2.DY. 28 13S 4.DY. 34 164 4.DY. Sl 243
Public Bui I ding L Lighting 103 4114 2.01 11S SSo 2.01 127 o14 2.DY. 1SS 7411
Industrial Sales
Fisheries Industry 0 0 N A 300 oDD 0.01 300 oDD 0.01 3DD 600
Forest Products Industry so 100 D. Of. so 100 0.01 so 1DD 0.01 so 1DD
Total Sales 2811 1.252 627 2.034 ol/1 2.342 8411 3. 10o
THORNE BAY
Residential Salts 130 62~ N A 2D2 1173 N A 2oS 1.27o N A 434 2·0110
Co••ercial Salts 00 31o 4.01 83 400 4.D1 101 480 3.01 13o 654
Public Bui I ding L Lighting 34 1b2 3.01 40 m 3.01 47 224 2.01 S7 273
Industrial Salts
Fisheries Industry 0 0 D.OY. D 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 0 0
Forest Products Industry 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.01 0 D 0.01 0 0
Total Sales m 1.104 32S liSco 412 1.1187 626 3.018
TOTAL SALES 2.088 8,1132 3.274 12.S74 3.712 14tb84 4.8411 20.282
SCENARIO C-Projection at Peak Lead and Energy De•and EXHIBIT 12
Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth 6rawth
1984 Rate 1990 Rate 1995 Rau 200S
--------------------------· -----------·-------------kW lllh (1) kW KWh (1) kW lllh (1) kW m~r.
KL.AiriOCK
Residential Salts 133 640 N A 179 861 N A 218 1·049 N A 308 1.484
S•all CCIItrtial Salts 98 470 2.01 110 5~ 2.01 121 584 2.01 148 712
Large Co••ercial Salts 108 522 1.01 115 554 1.01 121 582 1.01 134 m
Public Building L Lighting 22 108 l.OJ. 24 us l.OJ. 2S 120 1.01 28 133
Industrial Salts
Fisheries Industry 0 0 0 .OJ. 0 0 o.o1 0 0 0.01 0 0
Forest Products Industry so 100 D.DJ. so 100 o.o1 so 100 o.o1 50 100
Total Sales 411 1·840 477 2,1S9 S3S 2,43b bb7 3·073
CRAIG
Residential Slits 297 1429 N A 399 vm N A 486 2·342 N A bSS 3.1S4
Co11ercial Sites 407 1.CJS9 3.01 486 2.339 2.01 S36 2.583 2.01 bS3 3.148
Public Building_& Lighting 1SS 748 2.01 175 842 1.01 184 aas 1.01 203 978
Industrial Slits
Fisheries Industry 300 bOO o.o1 300 bOD 0.01 300 bOD 0.01 300 bOO
Forest Products Industry D 0 0.01 0 D o.o1 0 0 o.o1 D 0
Total Sales 1.158 4.73b 1,3S9 s.7D3 t.SOb b.410 1·811 7.880
HYDAUG
Residential Sales 112 S38 N A 111 S37 N A 13b bS4 N A 192 92b
Co11trci11 S.les 2S 120 2.01 28 13S 2.01 31 149 1.S1 3b 173
Pub! ic Building & Lighting 103 494 2.01 11S S5b 2.01 127 b14 1.S1 148 713
lndustri1l Slits
Fisheries Industry 0 0 N A D D o.o1 D 0 o.o1 D 0
Forest Products Industry so 100 N A D D o.o1 D 0 D.DJ. 0 0
Total Slits 289 1.2S2 2SS 1.228 ~4 1.418 37b 1·812
THORNE BAY
Residential Slits 130 b2b N A 14b 70S N A 178 8S9 N A 2bS 1.277
Cc••erci1l Slits bb 31c 4.01 83 400 3.01 9b 464 2.01 117 ScS
Pub! ic Building & Lighting 34 1b2 3.01 40 193 2.01 44 214 2.01. S4 2t.O
Industrial S.les
Fisheries Industry 0 D 0.01 0 D O.DJ. D 0 D.OJ. 0 0
Forest Products Industry 0 0 D.DY. D D O.DJ. D D o.o1 D a
Total Sales 229 1·104 2b9 1.~8 319 1.S36 43b 2·102
TOTAL SALES 2.oaa 8.932 2.361 10.388 2,b54 n.eot 3.~0 14.8b7
ATTACHMENT A
Attachment A
Black Bear Lake Project
Power Market Load Forecast Update
List of Contacts, September 1985
Mr. John Scribner, Deputy Commissioner
Alaska Department of Transportation
& Public Facilities
P.O. Box 3-1000
Juneau, Alaska 99802
Mr. Allen Bailey
Tlingit-Haida Regional Housing
Authority
One Sealaska Plaza
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Peter Freer
Alaska Department of Community
& Regional Affairs
Pouch B
Juneau, AK 99811
Mr. Carl Jahnke-Leland, Timber Manager
u.s. Forest Service
Craig, Alaska 99921
Mr. Reggie Marvin
Tlingit-Haida Regional
Electric Authority
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. William Milhorn
Craig City Schools
Box 71
Craig, Alaska 99921
Mr. Greg Mickelson, Plant Manager
Alaska Power & Telephone Company
Craig, Alaska 99921
Randy, Plant Manager
Alaska Power & Telephone Company
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
-1-
Mr. Gerald Voll, Superintendent
Klawock City Schools
Box 9
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Alfred Knutsen, Superintendent
Hydaburg City Schools
Box 109
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
Mr. Michael Walker, Head Teacher
Thorne Bay School
Box 5
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Jack Broughton, General Manager
Tlingit-Haida Regional Authority
P.o. Box 2517
Juneau, Alaska 99803
Mr. John Morris, General Manager
Haida Corp.
P.O. Box 89
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
Mr. Robert s. Grimm, President
Alaska Power and Telephone Company
P.o. Box 222
Port Townsend, Washington 98368
Mr. Glenn Charles, President
Shaan Seet, Inc.
P.O. Box 90
Craig, Alaska 99921
The Honorable Robert w. George, Jr.
Mayor, City of Klawock
P.O. Box 113
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. A. LeCornou, City Administrator
P.O. Box 49
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
The Honorable Lee Axemaker, Mayor
Mr. Dave Palmer
City Administrator
Craig, Alaska 99921
-2-
Mr. Steve Hansen
Klawock Hatchery
Alaska Department of Fish & Game
Klawock, AK 99925
Mr. E. Gregory Head
Alaska Timber Corporation
P.O. Box 69
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Robert Loescher
Sealaska Corp.
One Sealaska Plaza
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Don Marvin
Klawock Heenya Corp.
P.O. Box 25
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Denis Kuntz, Mayor
Mr. John Shaw
City of Thorne Bay
P.O. Box 110
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Bill McCannell
Island News
P.O. Box 433
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Peter Johnson, District Ranger
u.s. Forest Service
P.O. Box 1
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Dick Reynolds
Division of Fisheries
Department of Commerce and
Economic Development
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. James Deagen
Division of Fisheries
Department of Commerce and
Economic Development
Juneau, Alaska 99801
-3-
Mr. Don Dickey
Division of Tourism
Department of Commerce and
Economic Development
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Ms. Jo Van Patten
Department of Labor
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. John Boucher
Department of Labor
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Joseph Mehrkens, Economist
u.s. Forest Service
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Will Jones
Prince of Wales Lodge
P.O. Box 72
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. George Hartman
Plant Superintendent
Klawock Oceanside Fisheries, Inc.
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Tom Pittman
Federal Bureau of Mines
Juneau, Alaska 99801
-4-
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ATTACHMENT B
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•
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I.
Attachment B
Page 1 of 18
COMMENTS ON THE BLACK BEAR LAKE
DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
STATEMENT (PROJECT NO.· 5 715)
PREPARED FOR THE
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION
(OFFICE OF ELECTRIC POWER REGULATION)
PREPARED BY THE
CITY OF CRAIG, ALASKA
LEE AXMAKER, MAYOR
APRIL 1983
·-···~······••" &••••wo•
••o~o.c•
• • 1 •wc.-o•
'. c •••• ·-v.., • -c-"'•••• .. , ......
· •o .. o c •·~· .,. tl••c•• C'v•c••
t..• ........ ,. .......... ,.
Page 2 of 18 HotH:u1·~u~. ~los.uH.I~. E.\s1·." t ·c;u ~ li llAlll.l. y •c.·,··. •••(• •·c ... c. .. • ••o-••
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• ....... ..,, ......... t --•• , Q
..,. •• t •• •< t •o• • •• ....._, ........... , ••• , .. ,. ••C'l ............. tO
: ~Z:AU OYJ'lCE
·~ .... ••o•• •"·••••
'-"'""' ·~·· .,,,. ~•o·••· .. •
t ·t••• ••• ,.. r-..oo• ill. ' ..,,., ·c « eo• ., ..
.Jhl •\• ... •••• ••tt" I ... c:-.. c eC'•· ,._ •. ,, •.•
... c ···411 ,._ f •. r •:--c•
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!'1r. ICttnncth F. l'lurnb, Scc:rct~ry
Federal Ener~y Ruoulatory Commission
82~ Ncrth Capitol Street, N. E.
~~s~in;ton. o. r. 2J42~
Rc: Plack Peer L~kc Hy~~elcctric Pr~;ect
FERC ~o. 571~-000
C(,~\f'IENTS ON !)p;.rT r~:\'lROt~~·E~':'"I. IMPACT STATE:~E'!~T
Oear Secret~ry ?!umb:
7~v C:•y ~~ :~~i;.
e-n t!".r.' craft f:wi:-enrn~f"'tal
L~kP Hy~ro~l~c~ric Prnjcc~.
i=-!:tst.a
Ir.-pact:
~~=c~~ trans~its its cc~~cnts
S!ettt. ... ~cr.t fer thl-' :;:e:cO; :!car
':'re City c! Craig supi'cr~::-. ~tH! 1!:~1..:-'r.::t-·.·! .l ft:F::
..
lic~nse fer this ;>ro;ec~. We are sut'~ltti.r.~. as i'Ct:"t of c·.;r
cor."m~nts, some new ~opu:ation projection! fc:: P:-1nce c:f ~ales
lsland, which we trust r:'lay be of use 1n the updat:.nc,; cf loac
forecast figures. we also transmit (by copy C'f this letter)
these new population project ions to the Alaska Power Au thor i ty
for treir c~nsideration and use.
•
...
The tlmin~ of our submittal of c:nmments is base~ on the
State of Alaska's request for a time ext~nston until May 2, 1983.
I hat' also rec;uested the ~ame tirne cxtenttion, 1n a telephone
conversation with Gary Horgans of your legal staff on Apr i 1 4.
The reaso~ this ti~e extension was needec is that it took thr~e
weeks for th• draft ~nv i ronmenta l impact s ta temt•nt copies to
travel from FERC tc the addressees, arr1vin; March 25 •
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•
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At t a c nmt:nll. o
Page 3 of 18
We ~ppr~ciatc y("\ur consideration in th~ 'r.'atter of the
time extension, and trust our comments may be helpful to the
Cor.tn~ission.
Sincerely, !£1-.~t~-{f'~
City Attorney, City of Craig
OEC/rnt-
ce: (w/enel.):
Gle~ Verncn (City ~dmini•trator, City of Craig)
Al~ska Power ~uthority (Attn: Eric P. Yould, Exec. Dir.l
Hclden ' As~cciates (Consulting EnginPersl
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TA~LE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
I. Island Population Characteristics
and Growth Projections
II. Island Transportation Capital
Improvement Projects and Plans
III. funding Setting and lnterties
Potential between Present Distributors
IV.
v. Summary
Page 4 of 18
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Introduction
Attachment B
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The Cit~· of Craig supports the Plack eear Lake
Hydroelectric Project as "' significant capital il"provetl'ent
which will facilitate continued growth and improve the
quality of life on Prince of Wales tsl.,nd. The City also
f in~s that tt-e February 1983 •oraft Fnvi ronmentel Impact
State~ert• for the Black Pear L.,ke project offers a fair end
v ... lid assessment of the project i~pacts, and 9enerally
appropriate miti~ation mc~sures to ~inimize adverse impacts.
In an rffort to assist the AlasK., Pow~r ~utharit¥
CAPA) and the Federal Ener;y Regulatory Commission (F£RC),
the present comments provide updated information relating to
Island population cha rector i st ics and growth project ions,
Island transportation, capitftl improve~ent projects and
plans and a discussi~n of th~ funding setting, including the
possibility of interties between present electrical
oistributors •
Finally, our c~mDent$ sugge~t a few a~ditional
mitigation ~easures.
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1. Island Population Characteri~tics and Growth
Projections.
The Draft EIS contains .1n analysis of Island
population and projections for future Qrowth Cpp. 3-37
through 3-39). Figures in the nocument were sup~lied by th•
Alaska Power Authority in 1982. Draft !IS figures are as
follows:
Estimatee I"orullHion for Craig, Klawock
and Hydaburg (19791: 1,400 {rounded).
MiQt'\ projection for Craig,· Klawock and
Hydaburg t1991): 2,:30 (rounded} •
.l'nticipated pOpl:laticn for Crai9, Klawock
an~ Hydabur~ (19911: 2,170.
Low forecast
Hyd~tur; Cl991':
for Crai9, Klawock,
1 , '7 4 5 ( rcunded} •
and
In rarch of l9A3 the fi~al draft for the Prirce of
\-li!les Island Re~ion.!'l Goverru•,ent Stuc!y was coepleted by a
con~ultinc; firm under contract te trc Cit:· of Craie;, the
project sponsor. The de moe; rapt'll cs sect icn of the Ora f t
Final Report cor.tains populati~n prCJCCtiors for tre Prince
c! Wales Island as fellows (see Volu~c !, pp IV-3 and IV-4}:
1992 high projectior.: 11,000.
1992 anticipated populat~on: 8,020.
1992 low forecast: 5,265.
To arrive at these figures the consultant employee
the followin9 ntethod: 1) review previous populatior.
characteristics for the Island, includinc; causes of
population fluctuations; 21 Iurvey m~jc-r government
agencies and industries to assess future development plans,
includin<;J potential job creation CU. s. forest Service,
~•alaska, Village Corporations, etc.l: 31 review and
determine past, present and anticipated number of residents
per job on Prince of ~ales Island <so-called ·~ultipliers•):
•l forecast hi9h, anticipated and low populations for Prince
of ~ales Island thr6u9h 1992 •
The ~ethodol~~y is more fully ~iscu!~ed in Volume I
of t~e Draft Fin~l R~port for th~ k~9ional Gcvernrnent Study,
which is ... ttached a~ Appendix A. ":"o Eur"~arizc, the Dratt
final Report C'C'ntains tw("' conclu:>ior! a!t follnws: 1) the
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number of rcsidentF rcr jc-b (multiplier) tor l'rince of .-1 .. 1les
Island has been increasing at J~tn increasing rate fnr a
rumber of years ~n~ will continu~ to do so through at least
1992; the reason for this increase is the dcvelor~ent of a
support infrastructure on the Island whereby goods and
services are provided to industry from Prince of Wales
Island communities as opposed to Ketchikan or Seattle: 2)
the multiplier is presently estimated to be about 1.7: this
figure has grown from 1.44 estimated in the 1970 census and
is e~pected to equal or exceec 2.46 by 1992.
l. Population Projections for Craig, Klawock, and
Hydaburc. The ~egional Government study shows
that approximately 8,000 people will reside on Prince of
Wales Island in 1992. The question then becomes, how many
of these people will reside in Craig, Klawock and Hydab~r~?
To answer this question several sets of data can be
erployed: these data are as follows: l) populations within
cor.-.rnunities ~s a percent of total ;topulation: 2) recent
;rowth and indicators o! growth: 3) recent population
c~unts; 4) anticipated growth through JOb and services
development.
a) Percent of Total Population ~ithin Co~~unitir.~.
The estimated po~ulation for Prince of Wales Island to~ l~t2
in the RegionalcGovernment Stud;,' is 3,400 (see Volume I,
page III-5). Of this total the Department of Com=unity Dnd
Regional Affairs showed the 1982 Craig popul~tion to be 560,
the Klawock population to be 390 and Hydaburc; to :::e 355.
Together, these three communities had a total populatiOll of
1, 300 or about 38\ of the Island population. Within the
1, 300 Craig had about 43\ of the population, Klawcck had
30\ and Hydaburo 27\ •
b) Recent Growth and Indicators. Indications of
rapid and recent orowth in Craig are numerous. 't'he
indicators include the uporade in the past year of the City
reservoir to provide more than 250,000 gallons of water
storage, 165 building permits for hous1ng in the past 2 l/2
years, more than 60 water and sewer hookups programmed for
the next year, the construction of a new cement plant within
the City li~its, two new shoppino centers in the City in the
past year and related items •
c) Recent Population Counts. Within the past fpw
weeks the City of Craig has completed a new census for the
corporate boundaries. Thi.i census !:howr; ttl!~ Q('l2 persons
now reside in Craig. It should be noted that this census
has been taken before the influx of transi~nt workers
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normally ~s~oci~ted with the su~mer ~onths. When eo~rarcd
to the Ocpartr.u~nt of Community ~n~ ~egional 1-ffairs 19~2
r~venuP sha~in~ ropulaticn figur~ of 5~0 p~raona, this
census shows a recent population increase of 342 persor.s, or
a 61\ increase.
d) Anticipated Growth. As shown above, Craig has
historically contained· about 43\ of the Craig, Klawocl~ an<!
Hyd~burg population, Klawock 30\ and Hydaburg 27\: and the
three co~munities together have contained about 38\ r: the
total island por-ulation. However, owing to growth pol icie~
of the co~munities, these proportions are expected to chang~
sol"!1ewhat through 1992. While information from klawock is
yet . forthcof'!ling and while it is understood that Hydaburg
will be comrr.enting on the Draft EIS separately, the
following assumptions are noted:
(1) The City of Craig will continue tl.)
ex~erierce rapid growth as the government and
service center for central Prince of Wale&
Island •
(2) The City of Klawock, at
the foreseeable future, will
~redcminately native, residential
witr a l"!10dest growth rate.
least fc :-
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communi':·
(31 T~e City of Hydaburg will experien.~
ra~id c;rowth as a result of new industrL~:
act1v1 ty and the completion and upgrade • :
transportation facilites connecting Hydabu!g
with the rest of the Island, Ketchikan ar.c
ot~er points.
(4) The three communities together will
account for a larger percentage of the tot~l
Island population by 1992.
2. Findings. In light of these data and
assumpticrs, the following population projections for Crolg,
Klawock and Hydaburg are offered. (Figures are bast!k on an
anticipate<:: total of Island population of 8,000 wit:' 3,600
persons residing in the communities of Craig, Klawl"'Ck and
Hydaburg) .
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Ta~lc 1: POPULATION
Cornmunity \ of Study
Crai9 (high
C•nticipated)
(low)
Klawock (hic;hl
(anticipated)
(low)
H~·dat:turg (high)
(anticipated}
(low)
PROJECTTONS FOP
Area Popul~ttion
SO\
45\
40\
30\
25\
20\
35\
30\
25,
1992
NuTftber
1,800
1,620
1, 44 0.
1,080
900
720
1,260
1,080
900
Attacnment ~
Page 9 of 18
of Ptoople
Toti!ls: Under an:· combination cf FC:f'naric-s t~e population
cf t~e three ccTft~unities is anticip~ttec to ~e about 3,600.
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II. Isl~nd Transportation C~pit~l Imrr~v~~ent
Projects ~nd Plans.
Attao.:hmcnt 1:1
Pagl! 10 of 18
Various publ i cally-funded car ita 1 ill"provements on
Prince of Wal~s Island ere in the pl~nnino, desion or
construct ion phase at the present time. A discuss ion of
these projects by type follows.
1. '!ransportation. Transportation facilities
ce\•e 1 opr.:ent is a key to the overall ec:onoftl i c growth on
Pr i f\ce of wale! I~ 1 anrl. The S ta tt' of Alaska, the Federal
~evernmcnt, private industry and the Island communities have
long recognized the economic: potential of the Island and
have plan ned, designed and CC'\n$ true ted transportation
i1nproveftlents to flffect tl"at potential. These projects .:·.re
as follows:
a) J<oads. :'he Island networ;o. t:as been developed
jointly by the Federal Government CPIA end Forest Servic~l
~nc the Al3ska Department of Transportation and Pu~lic
Facilities (~OTPF) over the past twenty or more years.
Presently every ~ajor community on the Islan~ (·xcept
Hydahurg is connected to other communities and to the Alaska
H~rine Highway terminal ~t Hollis. The 1982 DOTPF six y~ar
plan showed over S30 ~illion in i~proveme~ts progr3m~ed for
this road network; thcs~ improyements incluccc upiracing
existing roads to twc lane, ·paved artt!rials (AA~H'!'C
secondary standards) and the completion and .upgrade of a
road link between Hydaburg and the rest of the island. ':'he
•Hydaburg Road• is presently under construction by Sealaska
t h rough an a g r e em en t w i t h DOT P F w he r e o y Sea 1 as k a w i 11
construct a basic facility, and OOTPF will purchase and
up;rade that facility. Last year Sl million was
appropriated to the pro jec:t. by the State; ·a supplementa 1
appropriation bill recently si;ned by t.he Governor contains
an additional saoo,ooo plus for the project, and t.re
re~ainin~ S2 million for the project is anticipated in FY84
appropriations.
Other current projects include an upgrade of the
roads between Craio and Klawock, City of Craig paving
projects, Klawock paving projects and Thorne Pay road
upgrade projects, all with current funding.
nl Airports. The DOTPf has rccentl~· upgraded the
Kl.!wock a1rport from a •local airport• designation to i\
•subregional hub airport• designatinn. 7his change in
classificatl,r. hll~ allowed the DOTPF to prcgr.1rn and exrC'nd
furcs fC'\r t~~ ex~ansinn of the facility, which it is
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currf'ntly dc-ing. FunC'!~ obtaint?d in FYeJ wi 11 lcngthen t.hc
runway from 2,500 feet to 4,000 feet or ~oro. Future
funding m<~'y allow for paving i'lnd for ultimate exp11nsion -to
6,500 feet or rtOrE', Qiving the Isl..1n<.1 ll f~tcility with thf'
capacity tc land Jet aircraft and largc C:llrg~ plan~s.
c:l PC'lrts. rlanning, progr.!mming and construction
of marine fac:ilit1es rangos frorn upc;rades of STIIall boat
harhors to CC'Ins true t ion of major dtl'E'p water ports, barge
loading facilities and m~trine industrial facilities. Small
boat. ha rt'tc·r upc;rades inc 1 ude thE' era ig South Cove Harbor,
which was n~cent 1~· improved througr. the ·construction of .a
~reakwatP.r and fin9er ~lC'lats: additional funds for i~provino
the channel and floats of this facility havP. been progr.!r.med
oy OOTPF. Major port construction and upgrade projects
include a hreakwater in Hydahurg now underc;oinc; review by
the A.r~y Corps of Enc;ineers: a barc;e loading fc'tcilit1' in
Hydaburg now uncer consideration by the OOTPF and the City:
a ~arine industrial facility now under consideratiC'ln by the
Cit~· of Craig and the Alaska Oc-partnt•nt of Co~rmerce and
Econo~ic OcvelopmPnt: port improYcments in Kasaan now under
study t'y the Cit.y of Kasaan and DOTPf': and pert i"'i)rOVP.J"!\ents
in Thorne Bay now under consi~eratior ~y the City ef Thorne
Bay and COTFF. -
c) Other iran~t"C'rtation f'acilitiC's. ':'he 007Pr
operates ferry serv1cc to Princ:c or: \·.ales Is!ar.c witt'~ a
t c r m i n a 1 a t H c ll i s , sou t h of Thorne P. a 1' • Du r i r 9 the p a s t
winter, use of this service has grC'\wn to the ('IOi nt where
vessels are I'!Ow consistently t;ookec tc Cltpacity, ar.c OOTPF'
is preparing to increase service capacities to accommodate
('"t'Tfland.
e) Planninc. The OOTPF reco-;nizes that r.:ajor
industrial activity underway and planned for Prince of Wal~s
Island will lead to increased demand for services and
facilities. To develop a sound approach to 11\eeting this
demand OOTPF has earmarked funds for a •Prince of t-Jc1tles
Island Transportation Plan.• This plan will b-. initiated in
the next fpw months And will result in an analysis of needs
and a pro; ram of il'!'prcvemen ts to rnee t thoSE' needs. Needs
may ex tend from ports, to airports. to reads irr.provements,
to maintenance: and ill\provements may ir!clude siti~o of
ports, airport expansion, road upgr~des and accC'ler~ted
maintenance schedules. Results of thP plan will be used to
~evelop portion~ of thP Governor's bu~gct for future ycers,
thus addinc; to And protecting the sioniflcant invcstl'l'cnt
alre~tdy m~de on thP Isl~nd by thP ~t~t~ ~f AlJF~a •
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Page 12 uf Ul
Ill. funcino ~cttina and lnt~rtiP.s Pot~ntial
~~tw~~n rrc~ent Oistr1butor~.
1. Funding Setting. Table 1·6 on page 1-14 of the
Draft EIS shows the Rlack ~ear Lake Project coming on line
wit~ a construction cost of ~~out $46.7 million. That t~ble
also shows the average cost of Black Bear power to be 22.7
cents per Kwh. The 22.7 cent figure anticipates that Black
~ear Lake will be financed through the sal~ of (tax exempt)
revenue bonds, a~d the cost of debt retirement is therefore
seen 3S a si~nific~nt portion of the Kwh costs. ~
It should be pointed out in this same context that
Governor Sheffield has made ~ very firm policy of investing
publ1c capital i~provements funds in projects whic~ produce
jo~s. As shown in previous sections of this document Prince
cf Wales Isl~nd is an area now experiencin9 rapid growth and
is thcrPfore a center of existing and potential significant
e~rloy~ent ccoortunity.
Wt'\ile it is rot expected tf.at the Governor, his
advisors or the Legislature would provide a 9rant for the
entire construction cost of P-lack Bear Lake, it is
cistinctl}' pCIS~itle that the Governor and the :..egislature
ray ;rovide a grant fer a oajor share ~f t~e project capit~l
costs. \oot'oile no •formulas• for State involvet'TI~nt i!'\ thi!3
sort of project currently exist, fermer State ir~clve~ent in
medium-sized r.ycroelectric projects sirrilar to f.laC':k Bear
Lake is well documented.
If the State were to pay enough of the capital
costs of the project so that the combined debt retirement of
the remaining cnnstruction costs and the ongoing operations
and maintenanee costs equated to an enerQy cost o£, say, 15
cents per ~wh, then the incentive for industrial
development, job creation and (pctential) new State tax
~ases on Prince of Wales Island promoted hy these low energy
costs could he ea~ily demonstrated.
It is understood that the ;..laska Power Authority
staff is lllready discussing ongoing Stlltc involvel'!'ent in
hydroeletric projects at ~ policy level, lind it is
anticipated th~t the Power Authority response t~ the EIS and
t~eir new ioad forer.ast for the stu1!y r~rea wil! take this
saliPnt pc~nt lnto c~nsidcrati0n.
'2. Pt•U•ntlal fr-r lntt•rtlt'"• lt: illi (•xpectcci tf.at
tht" new lC"i:!d tcrec<\st, loiltn (')r "''lthnut the inclusior. ef
Thorne P.1:,-a~ l'l co~sumc:-r.f P.ll'lc•. P.•.-:-,,r outr~r, will show
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Page 13 of 18
Prince of tlales Island electrical demand approaching the
~~pacity of the ~lack Bear Lake facility very soon after the
facility comes on line. Th•refore, a disr.ussion of the
potential for int•rties or a •grid system• between present
producers appears relevant at this time.
~s shown in the EIS, there are currently five major
producers of electricity within the £15 study area, as
follO"-'S: 1) Tlin~it Haida Regional Electrical Authority
(TH~EA) in J<lawock; 2) Alaska Tim~er Corporation CATC) in
Crai~/Y.lawock; 3) Alaska Power and TelephOne (APT) in Craig
and Hydaburg: 4) Craig Fisheries in Craig, and 5) Sealaska
Fisheries in Hydaburg • .
Fer purp~ses of the present document only the first
thrP.e of tt'lese producers will be. examined t~ analyze
pctential interties.
(a) Pt"lase 1: Aoreements. An irn::~ediatta agreement
between THRE~ and AP'!' could provide an int€'rt ie between
Crai~ and J<lawock •. THPEA is understood to have excess power
available wr.ich could be sold to the ~ortt rapicly ~rowif'g
~arket in Craig. This sale ~ay preclude the ncec for AP~ to
install an adcitional generator and would therefore reduce
cosr:s in the area ~y flr'ecludinc; thP. n~ed to r~tire
~dditional capital improvements dehts for gc~craticr of
petroleum -dependent power. t
The Alaska Power Authority has alrea~y received an
appropriation from the Legislature of 5720,000 to install a
tranmission line between the two ccm~unities: c~st esti~ates
for tre line were somew~at low, however, and an additicnal
S~OO,OOO is still needed to install the line.
Prior to any line installation, an agreement
~etweem THPEA and APT would have to be executed. It is the
understanding of the City of Craig that APT is oppose~ to
such an agreement and would prefer to install its own
adcitional generator d•spite the fact that a cost saving to
the consumer could be effected through the THR£A agreement
and the State-funded transmission line.
An additional agreement could be effected arnong
THREA, APT, and ATC whereby ATC would sell
woodwaste-produced electricity to both of the other agencies
at tirnes when ATC plant demands permit. In this fashion
both THREA and APT customers could re~uce diesel consumption
anc sell ATC electricity to their custo~crs ~t le~st part of
the time. Since the woodwaste electricity is c~eaper t!'lan
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Page 14 of 18
the diesel generator electricity, this further agreement
could result in additional savings to the consumer.
with the existence of the grid system described
above, each of the three electrical producers would have a
standing backup supply of power in the evet"'t of equipl'l'ent
f;-ilure.
b) Phase 2: Production from Black ~ear Lake •
T~is pr~se would entail the production of power from ~lack
~ear Lake an~ would also entail Hydaburg and possi~ly Thorne
S~y becoming members of the Island grid system. Until Black
Sear Lake reached capacity, the diesel ~nd woodwaste systel'l's
would serve as backup system·S for Plack Bear Lake. Under
this scenario consumers woul~ be assured of an ongoing·power
source despite equipmef"t f~ilure of the diesel/woodwaste
generators and despite failure of the Black Pear Lake
facility, unless a multiple failure happened to occur at the
same time.
c) Phase 3: f'.uture Considerations. Although
projections Of" growth and develop~ent tenc to lose
reliability at an exp<'nential rate at a point beginnif"g
abeut ten years from the point of the projections, it is
nevertheless anticipated tl"!at Prince of \oJ~les Islan~ will
experiet"'ce c~~tinued ~rowth and development through t~e
re~ainderiof the century. It is therefore als~ anticioated
that at ~ome 2oint ~etween 1992 and the yPa~ 2000 ho:~ the
Plack Bear Lake project and the back~2 or "su~pleme~tal"
dleseljwoodwaste system will ce at capacity, thus requirln~
the construction of an additional hydroelectric facility in
the Reynolds Creek area or at some other appropriate
location.
Given the scenario developed in phases Cll and (2)
above, it is seen that the addition of a secnnd
hydroelectric project on Princ:e of t:ales would supplement
the existing grid system on the Island, with th~
diesel/woodwaste production facilities again assu~ing a role
of backup to the hydroelectric facilities. Pl~nn~rs and
proc,ramrners Jnay also want to keep in zni nd t~e long r~nge
plans of the Alaska Power Administration, under which a grid
systel'l\ enco"'pal'sing all of Southeast ~las~a mi~ht be
established. Under thfl scenario pre sen tf'd h~r~t, Pr inc:e of
Wales Island would be a likely candidate for inclusion in
such a grid sy~tem.
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3. Findings. As s~own above, the City of Craig
views the 'Black Bear Lake facility as a key part of an
overall energy development program for Prince of Wales
Island. This ener;y development program would occur in
concert vi th economic development on the Island, both in
response to demand (the load forecast) a~d as a motivation
for industrial location and development (throu~h the
availability of· lo':" cost, reliable energy). Key components
of this development are the willingness of the !=tate of
Alaska to assist with the capital costs.of Plack Bear Lake
t':: o j e c t and t he w i 11 i n g n e s s of Is 1 a n d e 1 e c t r i c·a l
producers/distributors to work together and for the public
good. Careful attention should be paid to APT in this
context. It is known both that APT is opposed'to the Black
Bear Lake project and that APT is opposed to cooperative
agreements with THR£A. Since APT is under review at ~resent
cy the Alaska Public Utilities Commission wit~ r«l'Si)ect to
its performance and management practices, it is urc;ec that
F£RC staff review any APT corrunents on Black Sear Lake in
li~ht of the larger Island ener~y development picture.
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IV. Proj~ct Impacts and Mitio3tlon ~easures.
We hE'lieve that the impacts of t~e proposed proj~ct
have been thoroughly addressed in the Draft Environmental
Impact Statement, and that those impacts will ~e ~ninimal,
particularity if the l'l'litigation measures discussed in tt'le
draft EIS are adopted and i~plemen.ted. We do. ~\ave a few
additional mitigation measures to suggest, as follows •
First, during t~e construction phase of t~e
project, wt'lef' a large nurnt:ter of construct ion workers ar·e
if'Volved, we expect there m~y he a need for additional
staffing of thE' City of Craig police department, in order to
keep the peace during weekend and/or ftve~ing recreation
activities by construction workers visiting the City of
Craig. ~~e would appreciatflt any impact assistance aid t,.,at
might be available, under any federal progral'l'l, to assist us
in paying for this additional staffing. Such assistance
""'euld help to mi ti<;11te the econcl'l'ic impact on tt-e City of
Craig.
The Draft EI~ suggests ar. interim transmission line
across a portion of Natzut'\ini P.ay. vie prefer that this
interim transl'l'issiora line> be omitted, and that the final
routing (around the hea~ ef the bay) be c~nstructed at the
outset, as part tl'le preferred alternativE'. Our reason is ;
that Natzuhini &ay is extensively used by migrating (and
some overwintering) waterfowl, and we believe there would be
losses of waterfowl by collision with ~ransmission lines, if
t~e transmission line were constructeod across a ~ortion of
the bay itself rather than around tl"e ,.,ead of the bay.
Waterfowl are il'l'portant to /olaskans as food·, beside~ thE' i r
inherent wildlife values •
Those construction activities which result if'
sedimentation to streams should be scheduled so as to
minimize impact on fisheries values. Sedi~entati~n in
streams should be avoided when fish eggs arP present in the
stream bed. Based on our information fror.~ lC"C3l fisl"eries
experts, such construction activities ideally should be
limited to the period frot:' mid-June to early August. If
construction scheduling requirements cteoand compromise of
these contraints, we request that sttdirnent producing
•ctivities at least be limit~d to the period fro~ mic-May to
ear 1 y August •
The primi'ry fisheries re-source at sta~-. h~rc is
pink salmon, which run t)n a two year spawning cycle. i'Jc
would prefer th"t sedizr.r.r.t qenerllt i~g i'H'rt: it"f'\~ cf t:.he
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Attachment B
Page 17 of 18
construction activites be scheduled sn as tc ~inimi~e i~pact
en pink salmon by limiting such ·construction activiti~s to
the even numbered years, at which time there are fewer pinks
in &lack Bear Cr~ek, and it is doubtful that any pink .
salmon spawn above Slack &ear Lake in those years.
We ask that th~ section on mitigltion measures make
a comr.ti tment to 1 imi t ing any brush control (such as from
transmisson lines corridor maintenance) to non-chemical
means (~., m~chanical means). We are against the use of
chemical herbicides (becaus• of their po·tential effects em
fisheries, wildlife, and humans who gather wild berries),
when alternative means are available.
Finally, we believe the statement in section
4.1.4.1, to the effect tt'lat deer porulations are enhanced
ty clearcutting, should be reconsidered. That belief has
been superseded by ~ore recent studies, which show (at lefst
in Southeastern Alaska l that old growth forests tend to
provide undergrowth for food and shelter from snow, both of
which are im;>ortant for survival of Sitka black tail deer
during severe winters, and that second c;.rowt~ stards after
clearcutting do not provide these ~enefits.
Generally, the mitigation measures selected in the
Draft £IS are very good; .... e surpcrt their i1'1plementi!tion,
and trust this highly ~e~eficial project wlll proceed. ·
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Attachment B
Page 18 of 18
A major capita 1 i nves tmen t in h;,·ct·nc l.ectric power
Qf'neration such-as Plack Pear Lake c..,n t-~ justified only
after careful ccnsi~eration as the need for the project is
weighed again~t its costs al"d impacts. The City of Craig
feels that the F£RC staff has Dade a fair and valid
assessment of the costs and the i111pacts of the proposed
project; our comm~nts h~ve atte•pte~ to provide FERC staff
with new data regarding the need !or the project.
We ht'Vf!l shown that "'"' jor population increases are
occurring on the Island l't present aMd. will continue to
occur for the foresce~tble future. These popull'tiC'·n
increases are the result of significant economic activity on
the Island. We have further shown that other public
agencies in the State, local and Federal sectors have long
noted this economic activity and have ~~~~de sizeable capitl'l
investments in response. These invest~ents include
transportation, utilities and services •
~e have also shown a willingness on the part of the
State of Alaska to pe~rticipate fttrther in this •cor.cr.-.ic
development bj• securing an appropriation for an intertic
betveen Craig and Klawock; and we have d iscussc~ the very
real possibility that the Statf!l may ~ake ~tn ~pprC'priatior. ~n
·c~s~ out• "' siz~a~l~ ~crtion of t~e ~lack Rear L~~e
construction cost, thus ad~ing further incer.tive fer Prince
of ~ales eccncmic developme~t through the prov1sion of low
cost and relia~le electricity. Finally, we have shown an
emerging ener9y development plan for the Isl.l\nd ~nd its
relation to Southeast Alaska as a wl"\c!e. In !nal~·si! C>!
this plan we have cautioned against interests which ~culd
hamper economic development and public be~efit in favor cf
narrower motives •
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C..ITY OF THORNE BAY
P.O. Box 110
Thorne Bay, AK 99950
August 23, 1982
Attachment C
Page 1 of 6
1 RE: Black: Bear Lake Hydroelectric Project
~ State I.D. No.: AK8207lj·03
Mr. Brent Petrie
Alaska Power Autnority
334 W. StQ AYe., 2nd Floor
Anchorage, AX 99501
Dear Mr. Petrie:
This brief is directed to the Alaska Power Authority by the
Citj of Thorne Say in order to ~rovide an accurate estimate
or energy needs for the next 19 years. Thorne 3ay became
Alaska's newest city on July 13, 1982, when it incorpora~ed
as a City of the second class. The City limits encompass
approximately 22.5 square miles, ~akir.g it the largest city
en Prince of Wales Island, and one of the largest in South-
east Alaska. or the total acres involved, aoou: 1,000 acres
~ve been transferred into private cwnersn1p under :ne Sta~e
lottery and homesite laws. The City will be able to select
700 acres under its municipal entitlements for develo;~ect
as commercial, industrial, or residential zones.
The following governmental, industrial and commercial devel-
o~ment in Thorne Bay is either under construction or being
seriously considered. The new Forest Service Administrative
Site, already one-third complete, will Qouae jO families and
SO temporaries. The anticipated energy demand is .e~~wnr/y~.
This complex will come en line in 1984 and will buy its power
from the Thorne Bay Public Utility.
The potential of Thorne cay as tne transportation center ot
Prince of Wales Island was realized as early as 1976 wnen the
State selected land around Tolstoi Bay as a possible deep-
water port facility. The proposed port facility would include
a mainline terry te~inal, barge terminal, and a small boat
narbcr. The projected energy demand tor this facility is .78
Mwhr/yr. The trucking industry will expand with the growth
or the Island population and will need .87 Mwnr/yr. initially.
Energy demand is expected to grow at ~ per year for tnese
industries beginning in 1986 •
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Page 2
August 2.3, 1982
Logging industrial use of electricity will expand as more
logs are brought through Thorne Bay and primary manutacturing
ot timber products given more emphasis by the State and in-
dustry. LPK is currently considering installing a chipper
plant here and with ita current operations would require 1.98
Mwhr/yr by 1985. A cedar products mill is being considered
and, it funded, would begin operations in 1985. The energy
requirements are estimated to be .43 Mwhr/yr and a ~ growth
rate is expected.-I.!' low cost energy is available, a !'ull-
scal$ lumber mill is expected to be developed by 1992 with a
demand ot 3.~ Mwhr/yr and cogeneration racilities available.
The fishing industry will develop in Thorne Bay in the form
or a cold storage facility, tish processing plants and tish
buying stat~ons. The shortage or fresh water in other cities
on the island will force any future cold storage facilities
to be b~il~ in Thorne Say. A shellfish processing plant is
being considered and, 1!' funded, will go on line in 1987. Tb.1 s
plant will consume .25 Mwhr/yr and create 17 to 20 year-round
jobs. There is a potential !or a fishing ~leet to be based at
~orne 3ay and :nis would require 25 to 30 residences to be
b~ilt by 1990.
The co~~ercial sector w~ll grow as industry is attracted to
the area ace will include s~ch establis~~ents as motels, apart-
ments, restaurants, lodges, grocery and har:~are s:cres. Ser-
v~ce stations, enter:ai~T.~n: facilitie~, repair saops anc
construction compar.ies will ex~and :o .!'ill marke:s. These
companies are expected :o grow at a 9~1~ ra:e and provice
25~ to 30~ of the jocs in the area, they are expected to cons~~e
15% to 20~ or power generated.
There are presently 125 residential users or electricity in
Thorne Say and already we have a housing shortage to accomodate
all ttle people that want to move here. The population projec-
tions shown in ttle APA report are erroneous as tbey show a
decrease and then only a 2% increase after 1984. The Cit]'s
projections are shown in Exhibit A. Under the State land
disposal programs, all Alaskans who purchase land under the
Homesite laws are required to nave a home built within 4
years after purchase. With the parcels already sold, 56 ncmes
must be built by 1Q84. Currently, houses are being built on
lottery land at a·~ate of 3 per year, and when the road system
is up-graded, this figure will jump to 2C :c 25 per year to
~eet popula~ion :emand~ •
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August 23, 1982
Attachment C
Page J of 6
Wtth the 1ntlu: ot people and industry into Thorne Bay, the
Ctty ~111 have to provide uniform utility services to the
people and the most imponant ot these is electricity. Plans
tor additional generating tacilities will begin this year as
the City starts to plan ita growth, and the intormation tor
intertactng these tac111ties with Blac~ Bear Hydro po~er is
needed soon. The recommended route tor the transmission line
is along the Sig Salt Road and east along the $000 Road into
Thorne Bay. This would require about 25 miles ot line and
no additional road construction. It power is made available
to Thorne Bay by 1986, we ~ill become one, it not the largest
user, by 2001 as shown in Exhibit B. The time·required to
pay orr the project will be reduced by 30 to 4~, depending
on whtch funding scenario ts used. We urge you to recognize
the need ~or power in Alas~a's newest ctty and include Thorne
Eay in the :lac~ Sear La~e Hydroelectric Project.
Sincerely,
~J~ 77/.#
Dents M. K~ntz ~
Mayer
DMK: :jc
er.c
cc: Wendy Wolf
State-Federal Coordinator
Dtv. or Policy Development
and Planning
?ouch AW {MS-016$)
Commissioner McAnerny
Dept. of Community & Regional A!!airs
Pouch SH
Juneau, AK 99811
Rep. Oral Freeman
274.3 .)rd Ave.
Ketchikan, AK 99901
Senator Robert H. Ziegler, Sr.
307 Bawden Street
Ketchikan, AK 99901
Senator Frank H. MurKowsk1
Federal 5u!lding, Box lC47
J'uneau. AK 99811
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August 23, 1982
Honorable Donald E. Young
House o! Representatives
2331 Rayburn Bouse Ottice Bldg.
Washington, D.C. 20515
Hdnorable Ted Stephens
United States Senate
127 Russell Ottice Eldg.
Washington, D.C. 20510
Rep. Terry Gardiner
P. 0. Box 6092
Ketchikan, AK 99901
Attachment (.;
Page 4 of 6
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EXH!3IT A ·POPtTI.A TIO!; GROWTH
Thorne Bay's population is projected to increase at a rate of
7 to a~ per year as more people and industry are attracted to
the area due to lower cos~ ot living and nearness to the nat·
ural resources. The chart and graph below graphically illus-
trate this growth •
lEAR POPULATION
425
459
495
535
&~~--~--~----~--~--~--------~------~--1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
198i
' S7S . ISCO
1988
1989
1990
1'191
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
''""C: Ot.,
728
786
849
917 ....
990
1070
115S
12.48
1348
1456
1999 1572
2000
2001
169€
1834
0~--~--~--~--~--~--~--~--~--~--
,,.... lt'rl Ifill "" lf90 1ft&. lf"'tj ' ,.,., '"' a.a.o
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EXHIBIT B-ENERGY CONSUMPTION, THORNE SAY
Energy con~umpt1on is projected to increase at a rate or ~
per year as industrial, commercial and residential growth
occurs.
YEAR MWRR/IR --
1982 2. 6)
0
1983 2.79
1984 2.96
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l98S ).10
1986 ~ ... / v
).)2
1987 ).52 I v I / '
1988 J.7)
-!:! I I v ~ I 1 ~ I
1989 ., os
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1990 4.19
1991 4.40
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! _yr I
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1992 4.70 -~ I I . I
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1993 s.oo • -1
1994 5.29
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1995 5. e1
1996 5.95 .....
~ riPe, lfPI' .a=~ ,., 111'1 rl lrJo 11itl rl
1997 6.)0 .
1998 6. 68
1999 7.08
2000 7.50
2001 7.96