HomeMy WebLinkAboutBlack Bear Lake Update of Power Market Forecast 1983BLA
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BLACK BEAR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UPDATE OF POWER MARKET FORECAST
PROPERlY Of: .
I< Power ,A.uthonty A\as a 334 W 5th Ave.
· A\asl<a 99501 J Anchorage,
Prepared for the
Alaska Power Authority
Prepared by
Harza Eng i neer i ng Company
May 1983
r·
;'?r.t 0 General 0
----Vol.----
June 20, 1983
TO: ATTACHED DISTRIBUTION LIST
Enclosed for your information is a copy of a updated electric
energy load forecast prepared for Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg and
Thorn Bay on Prince of Wales Island by Harza Engineering Company
for the Alaska Power Authority. Under separate cover a copy of
this forecast has been filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission as part of the licensing proceedings on the Black Bear
Lake Hydroelectric Project and with the intervenors in the licens-
ing proceedings -the city of Craig and Alaska Power and Telephone
C01npany.
If you have any questions or comments on the forecast please
do not hesitate to contact me at the above address or by phone at
907-276-0001.
FOR THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Enclosures as stated
BP:ms
9232
Sincerely,
Brent Petrie
Project Manager
,.
I .. :
DISTRIBUTION LIST
Mr. William Chabot, General Manager
Tlingit-Haida Regional Electric Authority
P.O. Box 2517
Juneau, Alaska 99803
Ms. Lee Perkins, Plant Manager
Tlingit-Haida Regional ~lectric Authority
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. E. Gregory Head
Alaska Timber Corporation
P.O. Box 69
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Fredriksen
Office of Coastal Management
Pouch AP
Juneau, Alaska 99811
Mr. Robert Loescher
Sealaska Corporation
One Sealaska Plaza
. Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Leonard Kato, President
Klawock Heenya Corporation
P.O. Box 25
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Percy Frisby, President
Haida Corporation
P.O. Box 89
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
Mr. Patrick Gardner,
Shaan Seet, Inc.
President
P.O. Box 90 .
Craig, Alaska 99921
The Honorable Bruce Cook
Mayor, City of Hydaburg
P.O. Box 49
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
The Honorable Lee Axemaker
Mayor, City of Craig
P.O. Box 23
Craig, Alaska 99921
9232
'·.
c
The Honorable Robert W. George, Jr.
Mayor, City of Klawock
P.O. Box 113
Klawock, Alaska 99925
The Honorable Denis Kuntz
Mayor, City of Thorne Bay
P.O. Box 110
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Ron Wolfe
Tlingit-Haida Central Council
One Sealaska Plaza, Suite 200
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Ed Johnson
Tongass National Forest
Federal Building
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Mr. Adrian LeCornu
City Manager
City of Hydaburg
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
Mr. Walt Begalka
Sealaska Timber Corporation
400 Mission Street, Suite 205
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Mr. Cliff McCarty
Louisiana Pacific Corporation
Thorne Bay. Alaska 99950
Mr. Steve Hansen
Klawock Hatchery
Alaska Department of Fish & Game
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Lloyd Robinson.
Holden & Associates
1710 Davis Avenue
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. W. E. Williams
Local Government Specialists
311 Gruening Avenue
Juneau, Alaska 99801
9232
,•
Mr. Jim Wilson
City of Thorne Bay
P .0. Box 110
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. George Woodbury
Louisiana Pacific Corporation
P.O. Box 6600
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Mr. Robert Martin
Deputy Director
Division of Design & Construction
Alaska Department of Transportation
& Public Facilities
P.O. Box 3-1000
Juneau, Alaska 99802
Mr. Allen Bailey
Tlingit-Haida Regional Housing
Authority
One Sealaska Plaza
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Peter Freer
Alaska Department of Community
& Regional Affairs
Pouch B
Juneau, Alaska 99811
Mr. Brad Powe 11
Tongass National Forest
Craig, Alaska 99821
Mr. Robert Cross
Alaska Power Administration
P.O. Box 50
Juneau, Alaska 99802
Mr. Bill MaCannell
Island News
P.O. Box 433
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Will Jones
Prince of Wales Island
P.O. Box 72
Klawock, Alaska 99925
.,
9232
... . . .
, I'
~r. Bob Sanderson
/o City Council
City of Hydaburg
P.O. Box 49
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
9232
BLACK BEAR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UPDATE OF POWER MARKET FORECAST
Prepared for the
Alaska Power Authority
Prepared by
Harza Engineering Company
May 1983
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Page
1
Klawock
Population
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector
Industrial Sector
Craig
Population
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector
Industrial Sector
Hydaburg
Population
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector
Industrial Sector
Thorne Bay
Population
Residential, Commercial, Public Sector
Industrial Sector
LIST OF TABLES
A Historical Population Data
B Historical Electric Energy Consumption
Residential, Commercial and Public Sector
LIST OF EXHIBITS
A Scenario A -Projection of Peak Load and Energy Demand
B Scenario B -Projection of Peak Load and Energy Demand
C Scenario C -Projection of Peak Load and Energy Demand
LIST OF ATTACHMENTS
A Agency Contact List
B Comments on the Black Bear Lake Draft
Environmental Impact Statement prepared
by the City of Craig
C City of Thorne Bay -Letter sent on
August 23, 1982 to the Alaska Power Authority
2
2
3
4
4
4
5
5
6
6
6
7
8
8
8
9
BLACK BEAR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
UPDATE OF POWER MARKET FORECAST
Introduction
As part of the continuing studies on the Black Bear Lake hydroelectric
project, an update of future economic developments and needs for
electric energy was performed for the power market area. In addition
to the communities of Klawock, Craig, and Hydaburg, the City of Thorne
Bay was included in the analysis. This letter report presents the
results of the study. A visit was made to the power market area from
April 22 to April 27. Discussions were held with community govern-
ments, utilities, business entities, and state and federal agencies. A
list of these contacts is presented in Attachment A.
For each community, the 1982 historical data are presented and compared
to earlier data. Then the update of future economic developments is
described followed by a revision of the electric load forecasts for the
period 1982-2001. Three scenarios were developed, based on differing
socioeconomic assumptions. The load forecasts are presented in
Exhibits A, B, and C in a format similar to the previous forecasts
presented in the Alaska Power Authority Findings and Recommendations of
February 1982, and the License Application.
Scenario A is based on projections made by representatives of the
municipalities, native corporations, and local entrepreneurs.
Population estimates are derived from the comments on the Black Bear
Lake Draft Environmental Impact Statement prepared by the City of
Craig, and from estimates sent by the City of Thorne Bay to the Alaska
Power Authority. A copy of these documents is presented in Attachments
B and C. The industrial developments were also derived from these
documents and from discussions with representatives of the existing
industries, and new business ventures.
Scenario B reflects a more conservative growth, specially in terms of
population projections. The average annual growth rate for the period
1982-2001 is about half the rate presented in Scenario A. Both
scenarios assume operation and expansion of the existing industries,
introduction of a forest product industry in the late 1980's, and
recovery of the fishing industry.
Scenario C assumes a very depressed economy. The future population
growth is less than half the historical growth. Although timber
harvesting will continue, no forest product industry is introduced
until the mid 1990's, except for Thorne Bay where the Louisiana Pacific
Corporation has definite plans to install a chip plant. Activities in
the fishing industry would increase very slowly.
1
For each community, an analysis of historical trends and assumptions
used in developing the scenarios is presented in the following
paragraphs. Historical data are presented for the population, and the
electric energy demand of the residential, commercial and public
sector. To maintain consistency with the projections presented in the
License Application, the same approach was used. Estimates of short
and long term average annual growth rates of per capita energy
consumption and population were used to compute the energy demand of
the combined residential-commercial-public sector. The peak demand of
this sector was computed from the historical load factor increasing
gradually to 50 percent.
Peak and energy demand projections were made separately for the
fisheries and forest products industries. For the fisheries
industries, the energy demand of a cold storage facility, which
operates between mid-May and mid-September, is equal to the load demand
operating around the clock for four months at a load factor of 60
percent. In addition, if the facilities are used for bottomfish
processing and other year-round operations, the energy demand for the
remaining 8 months is equal to 60 percent of the summer load operating
at a load factor of 30 percent. For the forest products industries,
the energy demand is equal to the load demand operating for 3400 hours
at a load factor of 60 percent.
Klawock
Population
For the past ten years, the population has increased at an average
annual growth rate of 7.4 percent. In 1983, the population was about
490. Table A presents the historical data and the annual growth rates.
During the past two years, there was an increase of about 100 people
due to the immigration of former residents or the arrival of new
residents attracted by the economic development of the area.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for the Prince of
Wales Island Regional Government Study, and the assumptions made by the
City of Craig. As reported in Table 1 of Attachment B, the population
of Klawock would vary between 720 and 1,080 by 1992, with an antic-
ipated population of 900. For the period 1992-2001, an average annual
growth rate equal to 5.3 percent (70 percent of the annual growth rate
of the previous decade) was used. The 2001 population would be 1,400.
Under Scenario B, the population is not expected to continue its rapid
historical growth because of the saturation of job opportunities. The
population is projected to be 500 by 1986, 590 by 1991, and 720 by
2001.
2
Under Scenario C, the population will remain the same until 1986, and
then increase slowly at an average annual growth rate of 2 percent.
The 2001 population would be 660.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector
The completion and operation of the dock facilities on Klawock Island
have revitalized the local economy. Plans are underway to develop new
residential and commercial areas. This fall, the Bureau of Indian
Affairs is scheduled to open a road in the other half of the island. A
request for 25 additional housing units is pending review by the
Department of Housing and Urban Development. The village corporation
is finalizing financing for a mini-mall, and the state is expanding its
maintenance shop.
The Department of Transportation and Public Facilities is upgrading the
Klawock airport. The runway will be lengthened from 2500 feet to 3400
feet. Future funding may allow for paving and expansion to 6000 feet,
giving the Prince of Wales Island a facility to land jet aircraft and
cargo planes.
Although there are no immediate plans to expand the lodging accommoda-
tions, the increase in tourism will most likely require more
facilities.
In the long term, the community of Klawock is expected to benefit from
the logging development in the area, the expansion of the dock
facilities and the airport, tourism, and renewed interests in the
cannery operations.
As a result of these developments, the per capita consumption of energy
is expected to continue to increase. As derived from Tables A and B,
the historical per capita consumption increased rapidly from 1,610 kWh
in 1978 to 2,700 kWh in 1982, at an average annual growth rate of 13.8
percent. By comparison, the total 1980 per capital consumption,
including industrial consumption, was about 7,000 kWh for the State of
Alaska, and 6,000 kWh in Southeast Alaska. The residential per capital
consumption, alone, was about 3,200 kWh for the State of Alaska, and
2,800 kWh in Southeast Alaska.
Under Scenarios A and B, the per capita consumption is expected to
increase at an average annual growth rate of 5 percent until 1986, then
at 3 percent. The total energy demand is expected to increase from
1,169 MWh in 1982 to 7.150 MWh in 2001 under Scenario A; 3,680 MWh
under Scenario B; and 3,250 MWh under Scenario C. The peak demmand
would increase from 300 kW to 1,630 kW, 840 kW, and 740 kW
respectively.
3
' .
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries. Although the village corporation has decided,
for the short term, to terminate its operation of the existing cannery,
they are planning to lease the facilities. A local entrepreneur, with
the financing of Japanese associates, has definite plans to use some of
the existing facilities for the coming salmon season, and to build a
new facility for cold storage and year-round operation (bottomfish and
speciality processing plant).
The load demand is estimated at 250 kW under Scenarios A and B, ·
increasing more or less rapidly to 350 kW by 2001. Under Scenario C, a
load demand of 200 kW is expected until the mid of 1990's, and then
would increase to 250 kW. The energy demand was computed using the
assumptions described in the introduction.
Forest Products Industries. The village and regional native
corporations are planned to continue the timber harvest. For 1983,
Klawock Heenya Corporation has scheduled a cut of about 17 Million
Board Feet (MMBF). The dock facilities which were completed in 1981
are used for the loading of round logs to Japan. There is a good
possibility that a chip plant, a mill, or other forest products
industries under consideration by the village and regional native
corporations, might be installed on Klawock Island. However, for the
purpose of these forecasts, the load was kept in Craig and Hydaburg.
The power and energy requirements of the Alaska Timber Corporation
(ATC) are not included because ATC has installed its own wood waste
generation capacity.
Craig
Population
For the past ten years, the population has increased at an average
annual growth rate of 6.8 percent. In 1983, the population was about
905. Table A presents the historical data and the annual growth rates.
During the past two years, there was an increase of about 300 people
due to the immigration of former residents or the arrival of new
residents attracted by the economic development of the area. The
arrival of large number of new families is changing the character of
the area. Standard of living expectations are much higher for these
new residents than for many long-term residents of the area.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for the Prince of
Wales Island Regional Government Study, and the assumptions made by the
City of Craig. As reported in Table 1 of Attachment B, the population
of Craig would vary between 1,440 and 1,800 by 1992, with an antici-
pated population of 1,620. For the period 1992-2001, an average annual
growth rate equal to 5.1 percent (70 percent of the annual growth rate
of the previous decade) was used. The 2001 population would be 2,480.
4
Under Scenario B, the population is not expected to continue its rapid
historical growth because of the saturation of job opportunities. The
population is projected to be 1,010 by 1986, 1,230 by 1991, and 1,500
by 2001. Under Scenario C, the population will increase slightly to
1,080 in 1991, and 1,320 by 2001.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector
The City of Craig is developing as a subregional government and service
center for Prince of Wales Island. The East Craig area is being
developed for residential and commercial lots •. The lots are connected
by roads, and water-sewer systems are being installed.
The following decription shows the rapid growth: About 165 building
permits were issued in the past 2 1/2 years, more than 60 water and
sewer hookups are programmed for the next year, two new shopping
centers are opening, and a small cement plant is under construction.
Financing is being secured for an office building, a court house, and a
jail.
The road between Craig and Klawock is being upgraded, which will
facilitate transportation between the communities and Hollis, the ferry
terminal to Ketchikan. Other projects include the paving of new roads
within the city limits, and a marine industrial facility under
consideration by the City of Craig and the Department of Commerce and
Economic Development.
The per capita energy consumption was about 3,450 kWh in 1982, and is
expected to continue to increase steadily to 5,700 kWh by 2001 under
Scenario A and B, and 5,230 kWh under Scenario C. The total energy
demand would increase from 2,765 MWh in· 1982 to 14,140 MWh in 2001
under Scenario A; 8,550 MWh under Scenario B, and 6,900 MWh under
Scenario C. The peak demand would increase from 630 kW to 3,230 kW,
1,950 kW, and 1,580 kW respectively.
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries. The new cold storage facilities of Craig
Fisheries are expected to continue their operations throughout the
study period. The load demand is 300 kW in 1982, and is projected to
increase progressively to 400 kW. Under Scenario A, the facilities
will also be used year-round from the early 1990's.
Forest Products Industries. The village corporation is actively
continuing its timber harvest. In 1983, they have planned to cut 10 to
15 MMBF, and would like to increase the annual cut to 15-20 MMBF. Shan
Seet, Incorporated is also studying, with other agencies, the
possibilities of using small logs and other lower grade logs for a more
finished product such as particle boards. Based on a conservative
interpretation of their projections, a 500 kW load demand is expected
5
in the late 1980's under Scenarios A and B, and in the mid 1990's under
Scenario C. This load would only increase under Scenario A to about
750 kW.
Hydaburg
Population
For the past ten years, the population has increased at an average
annual growth rate of 5.5 percent. In the 1983, the population was
about 450. Table A presents the historical data and the annual growth
rates. During the past two years, there was an increase of about 100
people due to the immigration of former residents or the arrival of new
residents attracted by the economic development of the area.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made for the Prince of
Wales Island Regional Government Study, and the assumptions made by the
City of Craig. As reported in Table 1 of Attachment B, the population
of Hydaburg would vary between 900 and 1,260 by 1992, with a
anticipated population of 1,080. For the period 1992-2001, an average
annual growth rate equal to 7.1 percent (70 percent of the annual
growth rate of the previous decade) was used. The 2001 population
would be 1,950.
Under Scenario B, the population is not expected to continue its rapid
historical growth because of the saturation of job opportunities. The
population is projected to be 520 by 1986, 630 by 1991, and 810 by
2001. Under Sc~nario C, the population would be about 580 in 1991, and
710 in 2001.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector
Several major developments are changing the economic outlook for
Hydaburg. The last section of the road to Craig is now under
construction by the native corporations. Although it will be only a
one-lane logging road, the Department of Transportation is planning to
upgrade the road in the coming years. This road transportation network
to Craig, Klawock, Thorne Bay, Hollis, and the Klawock airport, will
facilitate trade between the communities and the outside, as well as
increase tourism in Prince of Wales Island.
The village corporation has constructed a log storage facility, and a
sort yard at Saltery Point, about 2 miles south of Hydaburg. These
facilities are already being used for the shipment of logs. About 20
to 25 ships will be loaded during the coming months. Haida Corporation
is planning to expand these facilities, so that they can be used not
only for timber transshipment, but also for the shipment and receipt of
other goods. A 100-man logging camp is also being under consideration
between Hydaburg and Saltery Point.
6
A new specialty seafoods plant is under construction.
process other seafoods in addition to salmon and will
smokery. Its goal is the year-round employment of 36
This plant will
include a
workers.
The City is developing new residential areas, and has requested 20
housing units from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
They are also securing funding to expand the water supply. A 16,000
sq. ft. gymnasium has just been completed.
The next main development will be the construction of a deep-water
port, and an industrial park, just south of Hydaburg.
As a result of these developments, the per capita consumption of energy
is expected to continue to increase. From about 2,340 kWh in 1982, it
is projected to increase to 3,300 kWh in 1991, and 4,430 kWh in 2001,
under Scenarios A and B. The 2001 per capita consumption would be
4,100 under Scenario c. The total energy demand would increase from 965
MWh in 1982 to 8,640 MWh in 2001 under Scenario A; 3,590 MWh under
Scenario B; and 2,910 MWh under Scenario c. The peak demand would
increase from 260 kW to 1,970 kW, 820 kW, and 670 kW respectively.
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries. As mentioned earlier, a new specialty seafoods
plant is under construction, near the.existing facilities. Although
Haida Corporation is not planning to operate the cold storage
facilities during this summer season because of the softness of the
market, they are planning the integraton of the existing facilities
into the new plant and expect full operation in the next two-three
years. A load demand varying between 350 kW and 450 kW is projected.
Forest Products Industries. For 1983, the village corporation has
planned a timber harvest of 25 MMBF, and would like to maintain an
annual cut of about 15 MMBF for the next ten years. In addition, the
regional corporation will continue its timber harvet on Dall Island and
Long Island, averaging between 40 and 60 MMBF per year. Most of the
logs would be processed at the Saltery Point sort yard.
Although the chip plant under consideration by Sealaska, the regional
corporation, has been put aside for the short term, the village
corporation and local entrepreneurs are studying the construction of a
cedar mill, and a shingle and shake mill. Under Scenarios A and B, a
load demand of 750 kW is projected for the late 1980's, increasing to
1,000 kW by the mid or late 1990's. Under Scenario C, such a
development would only come in the mid 1990's, and would have a load of
about 500 kW.
7
Thorne Bay
Population
Until July 13, 1982, when it became incorporated as a City of the
second class, Thorne Bay was a logging camp of the Louisiana Pacific
Corporation. As shown on Table A, the population had been decreasing
from 550 in the mid 1970's to about 300. However, the slow recovery of
the timber market, and the recent sale of residential land parcels by
the State of Alaska has changed the historical trend. By the end of
1983, there will be about 400 people within the city limits.
Under the State land disposal programs, all Alaskans who purchase land
under the Homesite Laws are required to have a home built within 4
years after purchase. With the parcels already sold, 56 homes must be
built by 1984.
Scenario A reflects the population projections made by the City of
Thorne Bay (Exhibit A of Attachment C). The population projections
were adjusted to reflect the differences in the 1982 base year. The
2001 population would be 1,460.
Under Scenario B, the population is expected to continue to increase
rapidly until the late 1980's, then to increase at an average annual
growth rate of 4 and 3 percent. The 2001 population would be 910.
Under Scenario C, the population will increase more slowly, and would
be 700 in 2001.
Residential, Commercial, and Public Sector
The City limits encompass approximately 22.5 square miles, making it
the largest city on Prince of Wales Island. Of the total, about 1,000
acres have been transferred into private ownership under the State
lottery and homesite laws. The City will be able to select 700 acres
under its municipal entitlements for commercial, industrial, and
residential zones.
The U.S. Forest Service has a district office which manages the federal
lands of the northern half of the island. They have now a staff of
about 25 full-time employees and 20 summer employees. They are
expanding their facilities: housing, offices, and maintenance shop.
The Louisiana Pacific Corporation is still the main source of
employment. They have now definite plans to install a chipper for
small logs. If the timber market continues to recover, they would
consider expanding their activities and install a sawmill.
The shortage of a cold storage or ice-making facility on the east coast
of Prince of Wales will provide Thorne Bay with some opportunities to
8
develop a fishing industry. Local entrepreneurs are studying several
possibilities, and the farming of shellfish.
The commercial sector is growing, and will continue to grow as industry
is attracted to the area. Because Thorne Bay was originally a logging
camp, many services are not yet available, and could be developed.
One of the major long-term economic potentials would be the development
of a deep-water port facility in Tolstoi Bay on land selected by the
State of Alaska in 1976 for such a purpose. The proposed port facility
would include a mainline ferry terminal, barge terminal, and a small
boat harbor. However, at this time, no detailed studies have been
done, and no financing has been secured.
The per capita consumption was about 3,040 kWh in 1982, and is expected
to increase to 5,760 kWh by 2001 under Scenarios A and B, and to 5,080
kWh under Scenario C. The total en~rgy demand would increase from 1,050
MWh in 1982 to 8,410 MWh under Scenario A; 5,240 MWh under Scenario B;
and 3,560 MWh under Scenario C. The peak demand would increase from
300 kW to 1,920 kW, 1,200 kW, and 810 kW respectively •.
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries. The fishing industry will develop in the form of
a cold storage, ice-making facility and fish buying station for the
short term, and in year-round small processing plant for the long term.
A load demand of 100 or 200 kW is projected at the beginning,
increasing to 150 kW under Scenario C, and 250 kW under Scenarios A and
B.
Forest Products Industries. As mentioned earlier, the Louisiana
Pacific Corporation (LPC) is planning to install this year or next
year, a chip plant for small logs. Based on discussions with
representatives of LPC, the load demand would be about 750 kW. Under
Scenarios A and B, an additional 250 kW was added to reflect the
potential expansions of this facility.
9
-I
TABLE A
HISTORICAL POPULATION DATA
Klawock Crais Hxdaburs
Annual Annual
Growth Growth
Year Population Rate Population Rate Population
(%) (%)
1973 240 ---467 ---264
1974 251 4.6 475 1.7 291
1975 266 6.0 484 1.9 350
1976 290 9.0 493 1.8 384
1977 300 3.4 503 2.0 380
1978 350 16.7 560 11.3 380
1979 404 15.4 620 10.7 381
1980 385 -4.7 587 -5.3 381
1981 389 l.O 560 -4.6 356
1982 433 11.3 8oo1/ 42.8 412
1983 490 13.2 905-13.1 450
!J Estimated
Annual
Growth
Rate
(f)
---
10.2
20.2
9.7
-1.0
o.o
0.3
o.o
-6.6
15.7
9.2
Thorne Bax.
Annual
Growth
Population Rate -m
550
550 o.o
550 o.o
550 0.0
400 -27.3
375 -6.3
300 -20.0
320 6.7
320 0.0
316 -1.2
400 26.6
s
t""
tsj
>
Year
1913
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
TABLE B
HISTORICAL ELECTRIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Klawock crais
Annual Annual
Energy Growth Energy Growth
Sales Rate Sales Rate
(MWh) (%) (HWh) (%)
NA ---918 ---
NA ---1,054 14.8
NA ---1,200 13.9
NA ---1,332 11.0
NA ---1,483 11.3
563 ---1,608 8.4
772 37.1 1,857 15.5
833 7.9 2,023 8.9
867 4.1 2,388 18.0
1,169 34.8 2,765 15.8
Hldaburi5
Annual
Energy Growth
Sales Rate
(HWh) -m
324
466 43.8
551 18.2
725 31.6
675 -6.9
840 24.4
901 7.3
861 -4.4
957 11.1
965 0.8
~
tzj
IJ:I
SCENARIO A
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Klawock 1982 Rate 1986 Rate 1991 Rate 1996 Rate 2001
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,700 5.0 3.280 3.0 3.800 3.0 4,410 3.0 5,110
Population 433 7.6 580 7.6 840 5.3 l ,080 5.3 l ,400
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,169 1,900 3,190 4,760 7.150
Peak (kW) 300 470 760 1,090 1,630
Load Factor (%) 45 46 48 50 50
Craig
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,450 4.0 4,040 3.0 4,680 2.0 5,170 2.0 5.700
Population 800 7.3 l ,060 7.3 1,510 5.1 1,930 5.1 2,480
Energy Consumption (MWh) 2,765 4,280 7,070 9,980 14,140
Peak (kW) 630 980 1,610 2,280 3,230
Load Factor (%) 50 50 50 50 50
Hydaburg
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,340 5.0 2,840 3.0 3,300 3.0 3,820 3.0 4,430
Population 412 10.1 600 10.1 980 7.1 l t 380 7.1 1,950
Energy Consumption (MWh) 965 1,700 3,230 5,270 8,640
Peak (kW) 260 430 770 1,200 1,970
Load Factor (%) 42 45 48 50 50
Thorne B~
~pt
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,040 5.0 3,700 3.0 4,280 3.0 4,960 3.0 5,760 Ill ~
OQ ::r
Population 316 10.0 460 8.0 680 8.0 990 8.0 1,460 lb ...... cr
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,050 1,700 2,910 4,910 8,410 ...........
rt
Peak (kW) 300 430 690 1,120 1,920 0 l"'l>
Load Factor (%) 40 45 48 50 50 N
SCENARIO A
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
TOTAL SYSTEM
1982 1986 1991 1996 2001
Peak Enertllx Peak Ener~x Peak Ener~x Peak Ener&l Peak Energy --w MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh
Klawock
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,169 470 1,900 760 3,190 1,090 4,760 1,630 7,150
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 200 430 250 690 300 830 300 830 350 970
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 500 1,599 720 2,590 1,060 4,020 1,390 5,590 1,980 8,120
Crai~
Res./Com. Sector 630 2,765 980 4,280 1,610 7,070 2,280 9,980 3,230 14,140
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 300 600 350 700 350 970 400 1,100 400 1,100
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 500 1,020 750 1 !530 750 1,530
Total 930 3,365 1,330 4,980 2,460 9,060 3,430 12,610 4,380 16,770
Hydaburg
Res./Com. Sector 260 965 430 1,700 770 3,230 1,200 5,270 1,970 8,640
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 350 750 450 1,240 450 1,240 450 1,240 450 1,240
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 750 1,530 1 !000 2,040 1 2ooo 2!040
Total 610 1, 715 880 2,940 1,970 6,000 2,650 8,550 3,420 11,920
Thorne Bay
Res./Com. Sector 300 1, 050 430 1,700 690 2,910 1,120 4,910 1, 920 8,410
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 0 0 200 340 250 690 250 690 250 690
Forest Products Indust. 50 180 1,000 2,040 1 ,ooo 2,040 1 !000 2 1 040 1 1 000 2,040
Total 350 1,230 1,630 4,080 1,940 5,640 2,370 7,640 3,170 11,140
Total '"dtzi
II) ~
oq ::s'
Res./Com. Sector 1,490 5,949 2,310 9,580 3,830 16,400 5,690 24,920 8,750 38,340 Cll ......
CT
Industrial Sector N t-'•
rt
Fisheries Industries 850 1,780 1,250 2,970 1,350 3, 730 1,400 3,860 1,450 4,000 0
'"">-Forest Products Indust. 50 180 1 1 000 2!040 2,250 4 1 590 2 1 750 5 1 610 2!750 5 1 610 N
Total 2,390 7,909 4,560 14,590 7,430 24,720 9,840 34,390 12,950 4/,950
-.. -,
SCENARIO B
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Klawock 1982 Rate 1986 Rate 1991 Rate 1996 Rate 2001
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,700 5.0 3,280 3.0 3,800 3.0 4,410 3.0 5,110
Population 433 4.0 500 3.0 590 2.0 650 2.0 720
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,169 1,640 2,240 2,870 3,680
Peak (kW) 300 410 530 650 840
Load Factor (%) 45 46 48 50 50
Crai~
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,450 4.0 4,040 3.0 4,680 2.0 5,170 2.0 5,700
Population 800 6.0 1,010 4.0 1 J 230 2.0 1,360 2.0 1,500
Energy Consumption (MWh) 2,765 4,080 5,760 7,030 8,550
Peak (kW) 630 930 1,310 1,600 1,950
Load Factor (%) 50 50 50 50 50
Hydaburg
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,340 5.0 2,840 3.0 3,300 3.0 3,820 3.0 4,430
Population 412 6.0 .520 4.0 630 3 .o 730 2.0 810
Energy Consumption (MWh) 965 1,480 2,080 2,790 3,590
Peak (kW) 260 370 490 640 820
Load Factor (%) 42 45 48 50 50
Thorne Bal_
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,040 5.0 3,700 3.0 4,280 3.0 4,960 3.0 5,760
Population 316 10.0 460 7.0 650 4.0 790 3.0 910
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,050 1,700 2,780 3,920 5,240 "tt t-J•
Ill H
Peak (kW) 300 430 660 890 1,200 OQ ::r
(I) .....
Load Factor (%) 40 45 48 50 50 IT ..........
" 0
l"'hb:t
N
'. ,Kl' . . PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
TOTAL SYSTEM
1982 1986 1991 1996 2001
Peak Eoer~x_ Peak Ener~x_ Peak Ener~x_ Peak Ener~x_ Peak Ener~n:
kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh
Klawock
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,169 410 1,640 530 2,240 650 2,870 840 3,680
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 200 430 250 690 250 690 300 830 350 970
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 500 1,599 660 2,330 780 2,930 850 3,700 1,190 4,650
Crai~
Res./Com. Sector 630 2,765 930 4,080 1,310 5,760 1,600 7,030 1,950 8,550
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 300 600 350 700 350 700 400 800 400 800
Forest Products lndust. 0 0 0 0 500 1,020 500 1 !020 500 lz020
Total 930 3,365 1,280 4,780 2,160 7,480 2,500 8,850 2,850 10,370
Hydaburg
Res./Com. Sector 260 965 370 1,480 490 2,080 640 2,790 820 3,590
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 350 750 400 1,100 400 1,100 450 1,240 450 1,240
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 750 1!530 1,000 2!040 1 !000 2,040
Total 610 1, 715 770 2,580 1,640 4, 710 2,090 6,070 2,270 6,870
Thorne Bay
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,050 430 1,700 660 2,780 890 3,920 1,200 5,240
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 0 0 100 170 150 260 200 340 250 690
Forest Products Indust. 50 180 750 1!530 1,000 2!040 1,000 2,040 1,000 2!040
Total 350 1, 230 1,280 3,400 1,810 5,080 2,110 6,300 2,450 7,970
Total --
Res./Com. Sector 1,490 5,949 2,140 8,900 2,990 12,860 3,780 16,610 4,810 21,060
Industrial Sector >OPI
Ill X
Fisheries Industries 850 1,780 1,100 2,660 1,150 2,750 1,350 3,210 1,450 3,700 OQ ::r
Ill .....
Forest Products Indust. 50 180 750 1,530 2!250 4!590 21500 5! 100 2!500 5!100 a'
N .....
Total 2,390 7,909 3,990 13,090 6,390 20,200 7,630 24,920 8,760 29,860 f"t
0
1-hb:l
N
SCENARIO C
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
RESIDENTIAL-COMMERCIAL-PUBLIC SECTOR
Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Growth Growth Growth
Klawock 1982 Rate 1986 Rate 1991 Rate 1996 Rate 2001 ------
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,700 4.0 3,160 3.0 3,660 3.0 4,240 3.0 4,920
Population 433 3.0 490 2.0 540 2.0 600 2.0 660
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,169 1,550 1 J 980 2,540 3,250
Peak (kW) 300 390 470 580 740
Load Factor (%) 45 45 46 48 50
Crai~
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,450 3.0 3,880 2.0 4,290 2.0 4,730 2.0 5,230
Population 800 4.0 940 3.0 1,080 2.0 1,200 2.0 1,320
Energy Consumption (MWh) 2,765 3,650 4,630 5,680 6,900
Peak (kW) 630 830 1,060 1,290 1,580
Load Factor (%) 50 50 50 50 50
Hydaburg
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 2,340 3.0 2,630 3.0 3,050 3.0 3,540 3.0 4,100
Population 412 5.0 500 3.0 580 2.0 640 2.0 710
Energy Consumption (MWh) 965 1,310 1 J 770 2,270 2,910
Peak (kW) 260 350 450 540 670
Load Factor (%) 42 43 45 48 50 "CCtz:l
Ill ~
OQ ::r
Thorne Bay Rl .....
rT ..-.....
rt
Per Capita Consumption (kWh) 3,040 3.0 3,420 3.0 3,970 3.0 4,600 2.0 5,080 0
1'1'10
Population 316 8.0 430 5.0 550 3.0 640 2.0 700 N
Energy Consumption (MWh) 1,050 1,4 70 2,180 2,940 3,560
Peak (kW) 300 390 550 700 810
Load Factor (%) 40 43 45 48 50
scr iO .
PROJECTION OF PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY DEMAND
TOTAL SYSTEM
1982 1986 1991 1996 2001
Peak Ener~~ Peak Ener~~ Peak Ener~~ Peak Ener~~ Peak Eners~
kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW MWh kW Hwh
Klawock
Res./Com. Sector 300 1,169 390 1,550 470 1,980 580 2,540 740 3,250
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 200 430 200 550 200 550 250 690 250 690
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 500 1,599 590 2,070 670 2,530 830 3,230 990 3,940
Cr a i _g_
Res./Com. Sector 630 2, 765 830 3,650 1,060 4,630 1,290 5,680 1,580 6,900
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 300 600 300 600 330 660 360 720 400 800
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 500 1 !020 500 1 !020
Total 930 3,365 1,130 4,250 1,390 5,290 2,150 7,420 2,480 8,720
Hydaburg
Res./Com. Sector 260 965 350 1,310 450 1, 770 540 2,270 670 2,910
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 350 750 350 860 350 860 400 1,100 400 1,100
Forest Products Indust. 0 0 0 0 0 0 500 1 !020 500 1,020
Total 610 1, 715 700 2,170 800 2,630 1,440 4,390 1,570 5,030
Thorne Bay
Res./Com. Sector 300 1, 050 390 1,470 550 2,180 700 2,940 810 3,560
Industrial Sector
Fisheries Industries 0 0 0 0 100 170 120 210 150 260
Forest Products Indust. 50 180 750 1! 530 750 1,530 750 1,530 750 1,530
Total 350 1,230 1,140 3,000 1,400 3,880 1,570 4,680 1, 710 5,350
'Qtzj
Total -=~ Ill I"'• c:r
Res./Com. Sector 1,490 5, 949 1, 960 7,980 2,530 10,560 3,110 13,430 3,800 16,620 N I"'•
" 0 Industrial Sector 1"1'10
Fisheries Industries 850 l, 780 850 1,980 980 2,240 1,130 2, 720 1,200 2,850 N
Forest Products Indust. 50 180 750 1! 530 750 1!530 1!750 3!570 1!750 3!570
Total 2,390 7. 909 3,590 11,490 4,260 14,330 5,990 19,780 6,750 23,040
ATTACHMENT A
AGENCY CONTACT LIST
Mr. William Chabot, General Manager
Tlingit-Haida Regional Electric Authority
P. 0. Boxt 2517
Juneau, Alaska 99803
Ms. Lee Perkins, Plant Manager
Tlingit-Haida Regional Electric Authority
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Robert S. Grimm, Vice President
Alaska Power & Telephone Co.
P. 0. Box 222
Port Townsend, WA 98368
11r • j\~ L • • I <S ""' 11 c..J:f , P 1 ant Manager
Alaska Power & Telephone Co.
Craig, Alaska 99921
Mr. , Plant Manager
Alaska Pow~r & Telephone Co.
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
~. E. Gregory Head
Alaska Timber Corporation
P. 0. Box 69
Klawock, Alaska 99925
~. Fredrikson
Offic~ of Coastal Management
Pouch AP
Juneau, Alaska 99811
~. Dnn Howse
Ataska Department of Fish & Game
415 Main Street #208
Ketchikan, Alaska 99801
Mr. Vince Matt
~tr. Wanamaker
Sealaska Corporation
One Sealaska Plaza
Juneau, Alaska 99801
~. Leonard Kato, President
Mr. Charl~s Katasse, General Manager
Klawock H~enya Cor por at ion
P. 0. Box 25
Klawock, Alaska 99925
Attachment A
Page 1 of 4
Mr. Percy Frisby, President
Mr. Woodrow Morrison, Jr., Resource Manager
Raid a Cor por at ion
P. 0. Box 89
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
The Honor able Bruce Cook
Mayor, City of Hydaburg
P. 0. Box 49
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
The Honorable Lee Axemaker
Mayor, City of Craig
P. 0. Box 23
Craig, Alaska 99921
Mr. Patrick Gat'dner, Pt"esident
Mr. Ron Schwear ingen, Resource Manager
Shaan Seet, Inc.
P. 0. Box 90
Craig, Alaska 99921
The Honorable Robert W. George, Jr.
Mayor City of Klawock
P. 0. Box 113
Klawock, Alaska 99925
The Honorable Denis Kuntz
Mayor, City of Thorne Bay
P. 0. Box 110
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Ron Wolfe
Tlingit-Haida Central Council
One Sealaska Plaza, Suite 200
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. Ed. Johnson
Mr • Dar l Enger
Tongass National Forest
Federal Bui.ldi.ng
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Mr . Adr ian LeCor nu
City Manager
City of H yd ab ur g
P. 0. Box 49
Hydaburg, Alaska 99922
Attachment A
Page 2 of 4
Mr. Glen Vernon
City Administrator
City of Craig
P. 0. Box 23
Craig, Alaska 99921
Mr. Walt Begalka
Sealaska Timber Corp.
400 Mission Street, Suite 205
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Mr. Cliff McCarty
Louisiana Pacific Corp.
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr. Steve Hans-en
Klawock Hatchery
Alaska Department of Fish & Gam~
KLawock, Alaska 99925
Mr. Lloyd Robinson
Hold@n & Associates
1710 Davis Avenu@
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr. W. E. WiLLiams
Local Government Specialists
311 Gruening Avenue
Jun@au, Alaska 99801
Mr. J i.m Wilson
City of Thorne Bay
P. 0. Box 110
Thorne Bay, Alaska 99950
Mr • Gear ge Woodbury
Mr • Dan Lo it z
Louisiana Pacific Corp.
P. 0. Box 6600
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Attachment A
Pa~e 3 of 4
Mr. Robert Mart in
Deputy Director
Devision of Design and Construction
Alaska Department of Transportation
& Public Facilities
P. 0. Box 3-1000
Juneau, Alaska 99802
Mr • A l len Ba i 1 e y
Tlingit-Raida Regional Rousing
Authority
One Sealaska Plaza
Juneau, Alaska 99801
Mr . Peter-Fr-l!er
Alaska Department of Community
& Regional Affairs
Pouch B
Juneau, Alaska 99811
Mr. Brad Powell
Tongass National Forest
Craig, Alaska 99921
Mr • Bob Arnold, General Manager-
Ketchikan Public Utilities
Ketchikan, Alaska 99901
Attachment A
Page 4 of 4
AT'!'ACHMENT 8
Attachment B
Page 1 of 18
COMMENTS ON THE BLACK BEAR LAKE
DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
STATEMENT (PROJECT NO .. 5715)
PREPARED FOR THE
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULA TORY COMMISSION
(OFFICE OF ELECTRIC POWER REGULATION)
PREPARED BY THE
CITY OF CRAIG, ALASKA
LEE AXMAKER, MAYOR
APRiL 1983
1 ..........
·:..-•"'·'
. . Page 2 of 18 Hotn:tn~us-. ~~o~.\ou·:. E.\S1'At·c~u ~ HHAnu. Y
.... ,.,.., ••• 0 ........ , .... .
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.,.11,.0\.C•
~~--Ct • ..,,.o ..
a, c"'••• .. -~"~ ......
~ , .......
~,._, ......... c•
,._ ...... " .. c. .. cc:•-•-..-..
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, •o'-o t •-c• w• .... , •• , ,,.. c ,.,.•o••
.\. ..... ,. ... "',. -"'·' ...... , , ........... , !i· .. ·
• ........... ..,,\. ...... t ....... ,,')
"""'. ··"'"'. ,., .. M .... ~ ... e-t\pril 27, lll~} ·~·· ( l'f;('t. • .,. •'•
a••{ •(· ••(" C. A\, .. ~·· •••teo • .. ~ .. , owo•• 1n·•••,
'St:A ll OtTlCE ~·""' •o•c• ·c~c• <'•O·••·•••
rt••• •••-•• r-..oc•
• '-'"' c c: •o• ., ..
l•v .......... •••~t
-C' ... t eC""· •~•· ll•.• .... "'' ·=· ... (• ·c.acw•·4t::J"'.._
~r. Kenneth F. i'lurnb, Sccret3t'}'
federal Energy Regulatory Commission
825 ~orth Capitol Stre~t, N. E.
~~s~in;ton, 0. r. 2J42~
R c : ? l a c k Fee r L..:! k e t~ y t ~ C"e l e c t r i c P r C" J e c t
FERC ~~. 571~-000
((t~t~ENTS ON DPr-FT r~:\'IROf~~·::s':'AL rMPACT STATE~E'HT
Dear Secret~ry ?~um~:
7~~ C:•y ~! :~~i~.
rn t~.r~ draft fnvi:-cnT:~cf"'tal
takP Hy~ro~l~c:r1c ?roJcc:.
A l ,"! s ~. 2i
!~rae~
~~:c~; trans~~~s its cc~~cnts
S ~ a t l"' "'c n t f c r t h t· ::< : c:: .: ".;. ;! c a r
"':"re City of C:-aig su~por-t.:..·. ~t:•-! l~~t: ... 1r-~Ct.· ·• ..J fEr:
license fer: this t'rOJec~. We are su~~lttir.c;, as ~~rt of c~r
cor.-meonts, some new rcpu:ation p::-ojectiC"n.s: fc::-?::-:.nee rf ~ ... les
!sland, which we trust r:1ay be of use tn the up~atinc; c: load
~orecast figures. we also transmit (by copy 0f this letter)
these new population projections to the Alaska Power Authority
for t~eir consideration and use.
based on the
State of Alaska's request for a time ext~ns1on until May 2, 1983.
I had also requested the ~arne time exten~ion, ln il telephone
conversation with Gary Morgans of your legal staff on April 4.
The r-easo, ttlis time extension was needed is that it took thr-ee
weeks for tht" draft environmental impact statcrn(•nt copies to
travel from FERC to tile addressees, arr1vin; ~1arch 25.
The tlmin; of our submittal of comments is
r,
...... ---..... ·-··--Page J of 18
We <"pprC!'ciate y<'ur consideratinn in the matter of the
time extension, and trust our comments may be helpful to the
Commission.
1Jf2dzd-e~
D. El i;:-t&Jth Cuadra
City Attorney, City of Craig
DEC/mt"
cc: (w/encl.):
Gle~ Vernon (City Administrator, City of Craig)
Alaska ?ower Authority (Attn: Eric P. Yould. Exec. Dir.l
Holcen & Associates (Consultin~ En~inPers)
-2-
Page 4 of 18
TAetE OF CONTENTS
Page
Introduction l
I. Island Population Characteristics
and Gro~th Projections 2
II. Island Transportation Capital
Improvement Projects and Plans 6
III. Funding 5etting and Interties
Potential between Present Distributors 8
I ~ ~
IV. Project Impact and Mitigation "easur~s 12
v. Summary 14
Introduction
Attachment J:S
Page 5 of 18
The City of Craig supports the Plack ecar take
Hydroelectric Project as cJ significant capital irnprc.,vell'tt?nt
which will facilitate continued growth and improve the
quality of life on Prince of Wales Islc-nd. The City also
fincls that ti"e February 1983 .. Oraft Fnvironmental tmpact
State~ent .. for the Alack Pear tc-ke project offers e fair and
valid assessment of the project i~pacts, and generally
appropriate miti~ation measures to ~inimize adverse impacts.
Il"l an E"ffort to assist the ,\lasR~ Power 1-uthorit.y
(APA) and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (rERC),
the present commer.ts provide updated infor~ation relating to
Island populatiof'l characteristics af'\d growth projections,
Island transportation, capital improvement projects and
plans and a discussi~n of ti"e fuf'lding setting, if'lcluding the
possibility of interties between presef'lt electrical
distributors.
Finally, our c~m~ents suggest a few a~ditional
mitigation ~easures.
-1-
Page 6 of 18
I. Island Population Characteristics and Growth
Projections.
The Draft EIS contaiMs an analysis of Island
population and projections for. future growth (pp. 3-37
through 3-39). Figures in the ~ocument were supplied by the
Alaska Power Authority in 1982. Draft EIS figures are as
follows:
Estimated populct ion for Craig, Klawock
anc Hydaburg (1979): 1,400 (rounded).
Hial"l projection for Craig,· Klawock and
Hydaburg !1991): 2,~30 trounded).
Anticipated popt:laticn for Craig, Klawock
anc' Hydaburg ( 1991): 2, 170.
Lo~oo· forecast for Craig, Klawock, and
t!yd.:-l:'urg (199ll: 1.745 (rcunced).
In ~arch of 19R3 the f1nal dr~ft for the Pri~ce of
t..r c 1 e !-I s l a nc~ Reg i on co 1 Go v e r n !"'en t S t u c y w a s com p l e ted by a
consulting firm under contract tc tre City of c~aig, the
pro j e c t s p on so r . The de rnog r a ph 1 c s s ~ c t i c n of the Dr a f t
FiMal Report contains population prcJcctiO~$ for t~e Prince
cf Wales Island as follows (see Volu~e !, pp IV-3 and IV-4}:
1992 high projectior.: 11,000. • •
1992 anticipated populJt:cn: 8,020.
1992 low forecast: 5,265.
To arrive at these figures the consultant employee
the following method: ll review previous population
characteristics for the Island, including causes of
population fluctuations; 2) survey majC'r government
agencies and industries to assess future development plans,
including potential job creation (U. S. Forest Service,
~E-alaska, Village Corporations, etc.): 3) review and
determine past, present and anticipated number of residents
per job on Prince of wales Island tso-called "~ultipliers");
4) forecast high, anticipated and low populatlons for Prince
of ~ales Island through 1992.
of tl"le
which
final
The methodology is more fully u1scus~ed in Volume I
Draft F'ln~l R~port for thP k~g1cnal Gcvernment Study,
i s ,., t t a c he d a s A r p e n d 1 x A • 7 o s u r. ~a r i z e , the Dr a t t
Report contatns t...,0 conclu!":i~Or~ i'H' fnl!0ws: 1) the
-:!-
1'<1~1.! 7 0 f 18
number of r~sident~ per j0b (multipli~r) tor Prince of ~~les
Island has bl!en increasino at ."n increasing rate fnr a
rumber of years ~nd will continur to do so through at least
1992: the reason for this increase is the development of a
support infrastructure on the Island whereby goods and
services are provided to industry from Prince of Wales
Island communities as opposed to Ketchikan or Seattle: 2)
the multiplier is presently .estimated to be about l. 7: this
figure has grown from 1.44 estimated in the 1970 census and
is expected to equal or @xceec 2.46 by 1992.
1. Pooulation Projections for Craig, Klawock, and
Hydaburc. The Regional Government study shows
that approximately 8,000 people will reside on Prince of
Wales Island in 1992. The question then becomes, how many
of these people will reside in Craig, Klawock and Hydabcrg?
7o answer this question several sets of data can be
erployed: these data are as follows: 1) populations within
col"!"'..munities as a percent of total population; 2) recent
growth and indicators o: growth; 3) recent population
c~unts: 4) anticipated growth through JOb and servi~es
development.
a) Percent of Total Populatlon ~ithin Com~uniti~~.
The estimated porulaticn for Prince of Wales Island for l~t2
in the RegionaliGovernment Study is 3,400 (see Volur.~e I,
page III-5). Of this total the Department cf Corn~unity and
Regional Affairs showed the 1982 Cr<"ig popul~tion to be 560,
the Klawock population to be 390 and Hydaburg to be j55.
Together, these three communities had a total population of
1,300 or about 38\ of the Island population. Within the
l, 300 Craig had about 43\ of the population, Klawcck had
30\ and Hydaburg 27\.
b ) R e c e n t Grow t h and I n d i c a tors • I n d i c a t i on s of
rapid and recent growth in Craq; are numerous. The
indicators include the upgrade in the past year of the City
reservoir to provide more than 250,000 gallons of water
storage, 165 building permits for hous1ng in the past 2 l/2
years, more than 60 water and sewer hookups ~rogrammed for
the next year, the construction of a new cement plant within
the City limits, two new shopping centers in the City in the
past year and related items.
c) Recent Populat1on Counts. Within the past few
weeks the City of Craig has completed a new census for the
corporate t-ouncari~s. '!hi..; census .show.-: tl"i'!~. 002 persons
now reside in Craig. It should be noted ttl21t this census
has been taken before the influx of transient workers
-3-
I ,
Pn,.:t~ S of I 8
normally as~oci.:.tP.d with the sull"mer l"''Onths. When corr.1ar .. ~d
to the Ocpartr.u~nt of Community l\ncf Ftegional Affairs 1982
r~venuP sha~ins population figur~ of 5~0 p~rsons, this
census shews ~ recent population increase of 342 persor.s, or
a 61\ increase.
d) Anticipated Growth. As shown ahove, Craig h.:\s
historically contained-about 43\ of the Craig, Klawock an~
Hydaburg population, Klawock 30\ and Hydaburg 2"7\: and the·
three co~munities together have contained about 38\ r: thP.
total island pcrulation. However, owing to growth policie~
of the co~munities, these proportions are expected to change
somewhat through 1992. While information from Klawock is
yet forthcoming and while it is understood that Hydaburg
will be comrr.enting on the Draft EIS separately, the
following assumptions are noted;
( 1) The City of Craig will continue to
experic~ce rapid growth as the government anc
service center for central Prince of Wales
Island.
(2) The City of Klawock, at least fc::-
the foreseeable future, will remain J
predominately native, residential commu~i';
wit~ a modest growth rate.
(3) Tt'le City of Hydaburg will experien• ·~
r-apid <;;r-owth as a result of new industri.~:
activity and the cctnpletion and upgrade 't
tr-ansportation facilites connecting Hydabu~g
wit.h the rest of the Island, Ketchikan ar.c
ott'ler points.
(4) The three communities together will
account for a la~ge~ percentage of the tot~l
Island population by 1992.
2. findings. In light of these data and
assumptio~s, the following population projections for Cr~lg,
Klawock and Hydaburg are offered. (Figures are baSfh: on an
anticipated total of Island population of 8,000 wit:' 3,600
persons residing in the communities of Craig, Klaw("'~ck and
Hydaburg).
-4-
Table 1 : POPULATION
Communit;x: \ of Study
Craig (high
(anticipated)
(low)
KlawOCK (high)
(anticipated)
(low)
Hydaburg (high)
(anticipated)
(low)
PROJECTIONS FOP
Area Populi'tion
SO\
45\
40\
30\
25\
20'-
35'-
30\
25~
1992
Number
1,800
1,620
1, 44 0.
1,080
900
720
1,260
1,080
900
t\~;;~;acnmen~;. o
Page 9 of 18
of People
Totals: Under any combination c-f ~cE>nariC's tMe population
c-f t~e three com~unities is anticip~tec to ~e about 3,600.
-5-
, ...
II. Islnnd Transportation C~pital Imrr~v•ment
Projects ~nd Plans.
At t<.11.: hmcn t B
P:tgc 10 of 18
Various public:ally-funded capital ill'provements on
Prince of Wal~s Island are in the planning, design or
construction phase at the presel"'t time. A discussion of
these projects by type follows.
l. Transportation. Transportation facilities
ceveloprnent is a key to the overall economic growth on
Pt'i!"ce of wales Islan<~. The State of Alaska, the Federa~
~cvernmcnt, private industry and the Island communities have
long recognized the economic potential of the Island and
have planned, designed and CC'\n~tructed transportation
improvett~ents to ef!ect trat potential. These projects .:-.re.
as follows:
a) Roads. 7he Is lane network t:as been develoi)ec
jointly by the federal Government (PI;.. anc Forest Servic~?l
end the Alaska Department of Transportation and ?u~lic
Facilities (QOT?Fl ever the past twenty or more years.
Presently every major community 01"1 ":.ht? Islanc ('>:cept
Hydahurg is connected to other communities and to the Alaska
Marine Highway terminal ~t Hollis. The 1982 DOTPF six year
plan showed over 530 million in improvements prograrn~ed for
this road network; thes~ improyements inclucec up~racing
existing roads to two lane,· paved art~rials (A;,SH"!:O
secondary standards} anc the complet:..on anc upgrade o£ a
road link between Hydaburg and the rest cf the rsland. 7hc
•Hydaburg Road" is presently under construction by Sealaska
t h r o u g h a n a g r e em e n t w i t h DOT P F w he r e by S e a l a s k a w i 11
construct a basic facility, and DOTPF will purchase anc
upgrade that facility. Last year Sl million was
appropriated .to the project by the State; a supplemental
appropriation bill recently signed by the Governor contains
an additional saoo,ooo plus for the project, and tt"le
remaining S2 million for the project is anticipated in FY84
appropriations.
Other current projects include an upgrade of the
roads between Craig and Klawock, City of Craig pav1ng
projects, Klawock paving projects and Thorne P.ay road
upgrade projects, all with current funding.
t'l} Airports. The DOTPF has rccentl}' upgradec the
Klawock a1rport from a "local airport" designation to a
"subregional hub airport" designatinn. 7his change in
classificat:,.,r. has allowed the DOTPF to progr.'Hn and exrcnd
fu~cs f~r t~• ex~ansion of the faciltty, which lt 1s
-t'-
Attachment B
Page 11 of 18
curr<'ntly doing. fund~ obtained in FY83 will lengthen the
runway from 2,500 feet to 4,000 feet o~ More. Future
funding may allow for paving and for ulti~ate exp~nsion ~o
6 , 5 0 0 fee t or nor E." , g i v i n g t h c I s 1 ~' n d a f a c i 1 i t y w i t h t h f'
capacity to lane Jet aircraft and large cargo planes.
cl Ports. rlanning, progr~rnrring and construction
of marine facilities ranges from up~rades of S!Tiall boat
harbors to CC'nS true t ion of rna j o~ d<'E'P water ports, barge
loading facilities and marine industrial facilities. Small
boat nar~c·r upgradE's include thE' Craig South Cove Har·bor,
which was rP.cent ly irnp~oved through th<' ·construct ion of .a
b~eakwatP.r and finger Eloats: additional funds for i~proving
the channel and floats of this facility havP. been p~ogr~~med
~y DOTPr. t-1ajot" port construction c'\nd upgrade projects
include a t'lreakwater in Hydahurg new undergoin<; review by
the A~rr:y Corps of Engin~ers;. a bargE:!' loading f«"cilit;,· in
Hydaburg now under consideration by the OOTPr and the City:
a narine industrial f«"cility now under consideration by the
City of Craig and the Alaska Depar-tment of Cotrrrer-ce and
Econo~ic DevelormPnt: port irrpr~vements in Kasaan new under
study by the City of Kasaan and DOTPF: and p~rt impr~vP.ments
in Thorne ~ay now under consideratior ty the City of Thorne
Bay and COTPF.
c) Otl'ler '!r-an!=.t"l~rtation Facilitirs. ':'he 007PF
operates fer-ry serv1ce tc Prince ot i·;ale~ Is:ar.c witt"~ a
terminal at Hclli.s, south of '!horne P..~y. Dur!rg the past
w i n t e r , use of t 1"1 i s s e r v i c c h a s 9 r Cl ..... n to t r. e r o i n t whet" e
vessels are !"!OW consistently :-coked o:c c?pacity, anc DOTPF
is preparing to increase service capacities to accommodate
remand.
e) Planninc. The DOTPF recognize~ that r;.ajor
industrial activity underway and planned for Prince of WalE's
Island will lead to increased demand for ser-vices and
facilities. To develop a sound approach to meeting this
dE'mand DOTPr has earmarked funds for a "Prince of vJales
Island Transportation Plan.• This plan will b~ initiated in
the next few months nnd will result in an analysis of needs
and a program of imprcvemen t s to f"'ee t thosE' needs. Needs
may extend from ports, to airports, to rcacs lrr:provements,
to maintenance: and improvements may il"!clude siti~g of
ports, airport expansion, road upgrades and ~ccrler~ted
maintenance schedules. Results of thE' plan will be used to
~evelop portion5 of thP Governor's bu~get for future yc!rs,
thus adc1ng to <"~nd protecting the Slgr'llflcant inv('strrent
alre"dy mC'de on thP Isl.:-nd t"ly thE' St..:>tt' 0f :\l~!=r.a.
Page 12 tJf 18
III. funcinq Scttinq and Int~rtiP.~ Potential
Hetw~Pn Pr~~~nt Distrlbut~r~.
1. funding Settina. Table l-6 on page 1-14 of the
Draft EIS shows the Alack Bear Lake Project coming on line
wit~ a construction cost of ~~out S4~.7 million. That t~ble
also shows the average cost of Black Bear power to be 22.7
cents per Kwh. The 22.7 cent figure anticipates that Dlack
~ear Lake will be financed through the salP nf (tax exempt)
revenue bonds, a~c the cost of debt r~tir~ment is therefore
seen 3S a si~nific3nt portion of the Kwh costs. ·
It should be pointed out in this same context that
Governor Sheffield has made a very firm policy cf investing
publlc capital i~provements funds in projects whic~ produce
jobs. As shown in previous sections of this document Prince
cf Wales Isl~nd is an area now experiencing rapid growth and
is thcrPfore a center of Pxisting and pot~ntial sicnificant
e~rlov~ent ccoortunity.
\\'Mile it is rot expected t:r·at the Governor, his
advisors or the Legislature would provide ~ graf't for the
entire construction cost of P.lack Bear Lake, it is
distinctly possible that the Governor and the :.egislature
:ay provide a grant fer a ~ajor share ryf tMe project capit~l
costs. \o.ot"ile no "formulas" for State invclvefl'lt?nt l!'i th:.~
sort of project currently exist, fermer State :rvclve~ent ~n
medium-sized Mydroelectric projects sil'l"ilar to F-lack Bear
Lake is well documented.
If the State were to pay enough of the capital
costs of the project so that the combined debt retir~ment of
the re~aining cnnstruction costs and the ongoing operations
and maintenance costs equated to an energy cost of, say, 15
cents per Kwh, then the incentive for industrial
development, job creation and (pctential) new State tax
bases on Prince of Wales Island prom~ted hy th~se low energy
costs could he easily demonstrated.
!t is understood that the ;..laska ?ower Authority
staff is Ctlready discussing ongoing State involvement in
hydroeletric projects at i!' policy level, and it is
anticipated th~t the Power Authority response t0 the EIS and
their ne._. ioad for~c:ast for the stu1!y <H·ea •nl: take this
saliPnt r.c·~nt ~nlo consiccratit'n.
t ht, new 10.-:!d
T!"'ornp PJy ,,;.
I' (, t ,.., n t 1 a l f r r I n t t' t· t l t • ~ • 1 t
tcrec,"lst, '*it'n or· ... :~Lhout
i\ ccf"lsumcr r.f P.le~c•. P•',1r
-!:l-
t!; r·xpectc<i tMat
the inclusion of
(") u t r \..; r , w i 11 show
At tacnmem;: .o
Page 13 of 18
Prince of l·lales Island electrical demand approaching the
~~pacity of the ~l~ck Bear Lake facility very soon after the
facility comes on line. TherefoE"e, a disr.ussion of the
potential for interties or a •grid system• between present
pE"oducers appears relevant at this time.
~s shown in the £IS, there are currently five major
producers of electricity within the EIS study area, as
follows: 1) Tlingit Haida Regional electrical Authority
(THREAl in Klawock; 2) Alaska Timher Corporation (ATC) in
Cralg/Klawock: 3) Alaska Power and TelephOne (APT) in Craig
and Hydaburg; 4) Craig Fisheries in Craig, and 5) Sealaska
Fisheries in Hydaburg.
'
For purposes of the present document only the first
thrP.e of these producers will be examined to analyze
~otential interties.
(a) Ph4!se 1: Aoreernents. ;..n immediatf" agreement
between THRE;. and APT could provide an int('rt ie between
Craig and Klawock. THFEA is understood to have excess power
available wt-.ich could be sold to the t'I'Ore rapicly growil"g
market in Craig. This sale may preclude the nccc for AP~ to
install an additional generator and would therefore reduce
cosr:s in the area l:'y precluding the nPed to rE"tire
~coitional capital improvements de~ts for ge~eratio~ of
petroleum -dependent pow~r. f
The Alaska Power AuthoE"ity has alrea~y received ~n
appropE"iation from the Legislature of S720,000 to install a
tranmission line between the two ccmt'l'unities: cost estit'l'ates
for tre line were somewl"lat low, however, and an additional
SJOO,OOO is still needed to install the line.
Prior to any line installation, an agreement
~etweem THFEA and APT would have to be executed. It is the
understanding of the City of Craig that ,.A..PT is opposed to
such an agreement and would prefer to install its own
additional generator despite the fact that a cost saving to
the consumer could be ef fee ted through tho THREA agreement
and the State-funded transmission line.
An additional agreement could be effected among
THREA, APT, and ATC whereby ATC would sell
~ooowaste-pE"ocuc~d electricity to both of the other ~gencies
at tlmes when ATC plant demands permit. In this fashion
both THREA and APT customers could reduce diesel consumption
and sell ATC electricity to their custo~crs ~t le~st ?art of
the time. Since the woodwast~ electricity is cheaper tt'lan
-9-
·-·.
r.
Page 14 of 18
the diesel generator electricity, this further agreement
could result in additional savings to t~e consumer.
with the existence Clf t~e grid system described
above, each of the three electrical producers would have a
standing backup supply of power in the evel"'t of equipment
fr-ilure.
b) Phase 2: Production from Slack ~ear Lake.
This p~~se would entail the production of power from ~lack
~ear Lake anq would also entail Hydaburg and possi~ly Thorne
Bay becoming members of the Island grid system. Until Slack
Sear Lake reached capacity, the diesel and woodwaste systems
would serve as backup system·s for ~lack Bear Lake. Under
this scenario cCinsumers would be assured of an ongoing·power
source despite equipme~t f~ilure of the dicsel/woodwaste
generators and despite failure of the Black Pear Lake
facility, unless a multiple failurP. happened to occur at the
same time.
c) Phase 3: Future Considerations. Although
projections Ol"' growth and development tend to lose
reliability at an exponential rate at a point beginniNJ
a~cut ten years frol'!l the point of the t'rojections, it is
neve r t he 1 e s s a n t i c i p a t e d t ~a t P r i n c e o f vi a 1 e s r s 1 a n d w i 1 l
experience c~~tinued growth and development through t~e
re~ainderlof the century. It is therefore als~ anticicated
that at ~ome point ~etween 1992 and the vP.ar 2000 ~ot~ the
Plack Bear take project and the back~? or "suopleme~tal"
dleselfwoodwaste system will te at caoacity, thus requirlng
the construction of an additional hydroelectric facillty in
the Reynolds Creek area or at some ether appropriate
location.
Given the scenario developed in phases (1) and (2)
above, it is seen that the addition of a secnnd
hydroelectric project on Prince of v~ales would supplement
the existing grid system on the Island, witM tMe
diesel/woodwaste production facilities again assuming a role
of backup to the hydroelectric facilities. Planners and
programmers may also want to keep in mind tJ"Ie long range
plans of the Alaska Power Administration, under which a grid
system encompassing all of Southeast Alaska might he
established. Under the scenario presented hen~. Prince of
Wales Island would be a likely candidate fer inclusion in
such a grid sy~tem.
-10-
Page lS·of 18
J. Findings. As s"o""n above, the City of Craig
vie...,s the Black Bear Lake facility as a key part of an
overall energy development program for Prince of W~les
Island. This energy development program ...,ould occur in
concert with economic development on the Island, both in
response to demand (the load forecast} al'ld as a motivation
for industrial location and development (through the
availability of· lo..., cost, reliable energy). Key components
of this development are the willingness of the ~tate of
Alaska to assist with the capital costs.of ~lack Bear Lake
: :-o j e c t a n d t he w i 11 i n g n e s s o f I s 1 a n d e 1 e c t r i c·a 1
producers/distributors to work together and for the public
good. Careful attention should be paid to J..PT in this
context. It is known both that APT is opposed·to the Black
Bear Lake project and that APT is opposed to cooperative
agreements with THREA. Since APT is under review at present
by the Alaska Public Utilities Commission wit!'l resi)ect to
its performance and management practices, it is urc.;ec that
FtRC staff review any APT corn.tTients on Black Eear Lake in
light of the larger Island ener~y development pictcre.
-ll-
r~
I
., Attachment B
Page 16 of 18
IV. Proj~ct Impacts and Mitiaation ~easures.
We believe that the impacts of the proposed projPct
have been thoroughly addressed in thE' Ora f t En vi ronmen tal
Impact Statement, and that those impacts will be minimal,
particularily if the mitigation measures discussed in the
draft EIS are adopted and i~plemen_ted. We do ~ave a few
additional mitigation measures to suggest, as follows.
Pirst, during t~e construction phase of t~e
project, whef"' a large number of construction workers ar'e
involved, we expect there may he s need for additional
staffing of the City of Craig police department, in order to
keep the peace during weekend and/or evef"'ing recreation
activities by construction workers visiting the City of
Craig. vJe would appreciate any impact assistance aid that
might be available, under any federal program, to assist us
in paying for this additional staffing. Such assistance
..... culd help to ndtigate the econci'T'ic impact on the City of
Craig.
The Draft EIS suggests ar. interim transmission line
across a portion of Natzuf'iini ~ay. \·Je prefer that this
interim transmissiol" linE' be omitted, and that the final
routing (around the head c! the bay) be constructed at the
outset, as part the preferred alternativP. Our reason is
that Natzuhini &ay is extensively used by migrating (and
some overwintering) waterfowl, and we believe there woulc be
losses of waterfowl by collision with ~ransi'T'ission lines, if
the transmission line were constructE'd across a portion of
the bay itself rather than around t~c head of t.he bay.
Waterfowl are important to P.laskans as food, bcs ides the-ir
inherent wildlife values.
Those construction activities which result if"'
sedimentation to streams should be scheduled so as to
minimize impact on fisheries values. ~edi~entati~n in
streams should be avoided when fish eggs are-present in the
stream bE'd. ~ased Of"' our information fror.1 lC'cJl fisheries
experts, such construction activities ideally should be
1 imi ted to the period fro!':' mid-June to early August. If
construction scheduling requirements de~and compromise of
these contraints, we request that Sfldirnent producing
activities at least be limited to the period fro~ mid-May to
early August.
The prim<"ry fisheries resource at st.;:~~:P. here
pink salmon, which run on a t'WO year spawn1ng cycle.
would prefer that sedirr.t:r.t generat il"g p("''rr ie"l"~ cf
-12-
is
'tiC
the
•
1\t:t;acnment: o
Page 17 of 18
construction activites be scheduled sn as tc ~1n1mize i~pact
on pink salmon by limiting such construction activities to
the even numbered years, at which time there ~re fewer pinks
in Black Bear Cr~ek, and it is doubtful that any pink
salmon spawn above Black Bear Lake in those years.
We ask that the section on mitigation measures ~ake
a commitment to limiting any brush control (such as from
transrnisson lines corridor maintenance) t~ non-chemical
means (!..:..2.•• mechanical means). We are against the use of
chemical hert-icides (because of their po'tential effects on
fisheries, wildlife, and humans who gilther wild berries),
when alternative means are available.
Finally, we believe the statement in section
4.1.4.1, to the effect t~at deer populations are enhanced
t::y clearcutting, should be reconsidered. That belief has
been superseded by ~ore recent studies, which show Cat least
in Southeastern Alaska l that old growth forests tend :o
provide undergrowth for food and shelter from snow, both of
which are important for survival of Sitka black tail deer
during severe winters, and that second g.rowti" stards after
clearcutting do not provide these ~enefits.
Generally, the mitigation measures selected in the
Draft EIS are very good: .... e suppcrt their it'11plomentC~tion,
and trust this highly ~e~eficial project Wlll proceed.
-13-
V. ~utr~m<"~ry.
Attachment ts
Page 18 of 18
A major capital investment in h:·croclectric power
generation such· as Plack Pear t..ake can t-e justified only
after careful ccnsiccration as the nc:oed for the project is
weighed again!'t its costs and impacts. The City of Craig
feels that the fERC staff has ~ade a fair and valid
assessment of the costs and the in"pacts of the proposed
project: our comm~nts have attetr~pted to provide FERC staff
with new data regarding the need for the project.
We hc!'ve-shown that r.~~jor population increases are
occurring on the Island at present and. will continue to
occur for t~e foreseeable future. These population
increases are thP. result of significant economic activity on
the Island. We have further shown that otrer public
agencies in the State, local and federal sectors have long
noted this economic activity and have tr~ade sizeable capital
investments in response. These investfl"ents include
transportation, utilities and services.
~e have also s~own a willingness on the part of tPe
State of .A.lasr.a to participate fl•rther in this ecor.cr'·ic
development by securing i!l"' appropriation for ~n intertic
between Craig anc Klawock: and we have d iscussec the very
real possibility that the State-may make ~n ~pprop~iatior. ~n
·c~sh out• ? sizPabl~ ~crtion of tte Black Rear La~e
construction cost, thus accing further incer.tive fer Prince
of ~ales eccncmic development through the ~rov1sicn of low
cost and reliat:'lle electricity. Fir.ally, we have shown an
emerging energy development plan for the Isl,;nd c.nd i::z
relation to Southeast Alaska as a w!"c!e. ln C~n<d~·si~ 0:
this plan we have cautioned against interests which ...,cuid
hamper economic development and public benefit in favor cf
narrower motives.
-14-
ATTACHMENT C
r '
~. I T Y 0 F T H 0 R N E B A Y
P.O. Box llO
Thorne Bay, AK 99950
August 23, 1982'
RE: Black Bear Lake Hydroelectric Project
State I.D. No.: AK8207l3-03
Mr. Srent Petrie
Alaska Power Autaority
334 W. 5th Ave., 2nd Floor
Anchorage, AK 99501
Dear Mr. Pet~ie:
Attachment C
Page l of 6
This brief is directed to tae Alaska Power Authority by the
City of Thorne Say in order to ;rovide an accurate estimate
of energy needs !or the next 19 years. Thorne Say became
Alaska's newest city on July 13, 1982, when it incorpora~ed
as a City of ~he second class. The City limits encompass
approximately 22.5 square miles, ~akin; it the la~gest city
on Prince of Wales Island, and one of the largest in South-
east Alaska. Of ~he total acres involved, aoout l,OCO acres
~ve been transferred into private ownership under :he State
lottery and homesite laws. T~e City will ~e able to select
700 acres under its municipal entitlements for develo;~ent
as commercial, industrial, or residential zones.
The following governmental, industrial and co~~ercial devel-
opment in Thorne Say is either under construction or being
seriously considered. The new Forest Service Administrative
Site, already one-third complete, will house 30 families and
50 temporaries. The anticipated energy demand is .8~~wnr/yr.
This complex will come on line in l98u and will buy its power
from tae Thorne oay Public Utility.
The potential of Thorne oay as the transportation center of
P~ince of Wales Island was realized as early as 1976 when the
State selected land around Tolstoi Bay as a possible deep-
water port facility. The proposed port facility would include
a mainline ferry ter~inal, barge terminal, and a small boat
harbor. The projected energj demand for this facility is .78
Mwnr/yr. The trucking indus~ry will ex~ar.d with the growth
of the Island population and will need .87 Mwnr/yr. initially.
Energy demand is expected to grow at 6~ per year !'or these
industries beg:~ning in 1986.
Page J
August 2J, 1982
Attachment C
Page 3 of 6
With the influx of people and industry into Thorne Bay, the
City will nave to provide uniform utility services to the
people and the most important of these is electricity. Plans
!'or additional generating facilities will begin this year as
the City starts to plan its growth, and the information for
interfacing these facilities with Black Sear Hydro power is .
needed soon. ~e recommended route !'or the transmission line
is along the Sig Salt Road and east along the 5000 Road into
Thorne Bay. This would require about 25 miles of line and
no additional road construction. I!' power is made available
to Thorne Bay by 1986, we will become one, if not the largest
user, by 2001 as shown in Exhibit B. The time ·required to
pay off the project will be reduced by JO to 40~, depending
on which funding scenario is used. We urge you to recognize
the need for power in Alaska's newest city and include Thorne
5ay in the Slack 3ear Lake Hydroelectric Project.
Sincerely,
$~77!.#
Denis :·!. K ~.:.n t z c:;:r
Mayer
enc
cc: Wendy Wolf
State-Federal Coordinator
~iv. of Policy Development
and Planning
?ouch AW (MS-0165)
Commissioner McAnerny
Dept. of Community & Regional Affairs
Pouch. EH
Juneau, AK 99811
Rep. Oral Freeman
2743 Jrd Ave.
Ketchikan, AK 99901
Senator Robert H. Ziegler, S~.
307 Bawden Street
Ketchikan, AK 99901
Senator Frank H. MurKowski
Federal Suilding, EoA 1647
Juneau. AK 99811
Page 2 of 6
Page 2
August 2J, 1982
Logging industrial use of electricity will expand as more
logs are brought through Thorne Bay and primary manufacturing
of timber products given more emphasis by the State and in-
dustry. LPK is currently considering installing a chipper
plant here and with its current operations would require 1.98
Mwnr/yr by 1985. A cedar products mill is being considered
and, if funded, would begin operations in 1985. The energy
requirements are estimated to be .4.3 Mwhr/yr and a ~ growth
rate is expected. I.!' low cost energy is available, a full-
seal$ lumber mill is expected to be developed by 1992 with a
demand of J.J Mwhr/yr and cogeneration facilities available.
The fishing industry will develop in Thorne Bay in the form
of a cold storage facility, fish processing plants and fish
buying stations. The shortage of fresh water in other cities
on the island will force any future cold storage facilities
:o be b~il~ in Thorne Bay. A shellfish processing plant is
being considered and, if funded, will go on line in 1987. This
plant will consume .25 Mw~r/yr and crea~e 17 to 20 year-round
jobs. There is a potential for a fishing rleet to be based at
~horne 3ay and ~his would require 25 to 30 residences to be
b~ilt by 1990.
The co~~ercial sector will grow as industry is attracted to
the area an.d will include such. establish..-nen~s as motels, a~a·rt
ments, restauran.ts, lodges, grocery and hardware s~cres. Ser-
vice statiocs, enter:ain~~r.: facil:ttes, re?air sho~s and
construction comcanies will ex~and to .!'ill ~arkets. These
companies are expected to grew· at a 9-l.l% :-a~e and pro•1ide
25~ to JOfo of the jobs in the area, they are expected to cons~-ne
15% to 20% of power generated.
There are presently 125 residential users of electricity in
Thorne Say and already we have a housing snortage to accomodate
all the people that want to move here. The population projec-
tions shown in the APA report are erroneous as they show a
decrease and then only a 2% increase after 1984. The City's
projections are shown in Exhibit A. Under the State land
disposal programs, all Alaskans who purchase land under the
Homesite laws are required to have a home built within 4
years after purchase. With the parcels already sold, 56 homes
must be built by 1a84. Currently, houses are being built en
lottery land at a rate of 3 per year, and when the road system
is up-graded, this figure w~ll jump to 2C :c 25 per year to
~eet popula~ior. ~emar.ds.
' .
Page 4
August 23, 1982
Honorable Donald E. Young
House ot Representatives
2331 Rayburn House O!t1ce Bldg.
Washington, D.C. 20515
Honorable Ted Stephens
United States Senate
127 Russell Office Bldg.
Washington, D.C. 20510
Rep. Terry Gardiner
P. 0. Box 6092
Ketchikan, AK 99901
Attacnment t;
Page 4 of 6
Page 5 of 6
EX.HI3IT A -POPtTLAT!O!.;' GROWTH
Thorne Bay's population is projected to increase at a rate or
7 to 8% per year as more people and industry are attracted to
the area due to lower cost or living and nearness to the nat-
ural resources. The chart and graph below graphically illus-
trate this growth.
YEAR
1982
POPULATION
425
459
495
535
z.-
I
198)
1984
1985
1986
l ea ... , I
SDO 578 · I I
624
I l /~
I
I
//1 1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
728
786
849
990
1994 1070
1995 1155
1996 1248
1997
1998
1348
1456
1999 1572
2ooo lo9e
2001 1834
1 i
I
j -· ' ~
~s
I ~ c I
~
0
'
I ' 7 I ' I
I I I
I I
I I ' j I ' I I
' I I I
I I
I
I
I
/ v
Page 6 of 6 . ..
EXHIBIT B-ENERGY CONSID-t?TION, THOR.~E 5AY
Energy con~umpt1on is projected to increase at a rate of ~
per year as industrial, commercial and residential growth
occurs.
YEAR M'WHR/YR I~
1982 2. 6J
1983 2.79 "-
1984 2.96 9 -
1985 J.10
1986
.,._
I J.J2
l98i 3.52
/ I L ' ...
1988 J.7J
1989 ., a c: .J. , ..,
1990 4.19
1991 4.40
1992 4. 70
1993 5.00
~ I I 1/ ~ I I /
~ I ~Y ',/"
~ I
~ ~I !
l
I
I
\&II I I
Q I I I
,3..o ....
VI '
I
I I I I I I
z.._ i i
s
I
1994 5.29
I· I
1995 5. 61
1996 5.95 . -J"i9o ,.,~ ri,, 19ft~. 1916 t9G' 11 'fZ. 19'!'r mz.
1997 6.JO
1998 6. 68
1999 i.08
2000 7.50
2001 7.96
/ /
I
I I
I
.ll::~