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HomeMy WebLinkAboutKarluk PCE Economic Analysis 1988Village: Elec. Sold FY88: Elec. Increase: Fuel Effy FY89: New Effy: 0 Fuel Price: New Fuel Price: Fuel Price Increase Discount Rate: Investment Year Savings: “ “ " " “ “ " Savings: NOTES: CURRENT SCENARIO KARLUK.XLS PCE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Kar luk Construction Cost: $347,149 Includes plannng level cost 127798 Kwh * est. for security lites & fence 0.00% Net Benefit: ($273,062) 7.21 Kwh/gal * 7.21 Kwh/gal * Present Value Current Scenario: $0 1.64 $/gal** Present Value PCE Scenario: ($273,062) 1.15 $/gal*** 0.00% Max Construction Cost: $74,087 3.00% | CURRENT SCENARIO NEW PROJECT SCENARIO Year Capital O&M Fuel Fuel Capital O&M Fuel Fuel ($) ($ saved) |(gal saved)} ($ saved) ($) 1c saved) |(gal saved)}($ saved) 1990 $0 $0 0 $0 | ($347,149) $0 0 $0 1991 $0 $0 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 1992 $0 $0 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 1993 so so 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 1994 $0 $0 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 1995 $0 so 0 $0 so 0 8,685 1996 $0 $0 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 1997) $0 $0 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 1998 $0 $0 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 1999) $0 $0 0} $o $0 0 8,685 2000 $0 $0 0 $0 $0 0 8,685 Total: $0 so | 0 $O | ($347,149) $0 0} $86,853 Pv 1990: $0 so | $0 | ($347,149) $74,087 There is no Capital Cost There are no fuel savings NEW PROJECT SCENARIO Capital Cost includes the estimated cost to upgrade 50,000 gal tank and install 1500 foot pipeline Generating fuel efficiency is unchanged There is no fuel savings (gal) Fuel ($ Saved) is based on the generation efficiency & Kwh generated in FY88, times the $.49/gal savings O&M costs savings are assumed negligible Maximum Construction Cost is equal to the Construction Cost minus the Present Value Current Scenario plus the Present Value PCE Scenario * from FY88 PCE data ** from FY89 PCE data ~ Acceedwa Te FY 36-FY RA PCE recwos , Phe feel price ban wee *** Pacific Ak Fuel estimate Page 1 KARLUK.XLS PCE RATE ANALYSIS APUC/PCE CURRENT NEW PROJECT SCENARIO Year DATA FY88 SCENARIO | | PCE ($) PCE ($)_ |CAPITAL($) PCE ($) Investment Year 1990, $0 $0 | ($347,149) $0 Savings: 1991) ($26,464)] ($29,463) ($23,820) 7 1992] ($26,464)| ($29,463) ($23,820) 7 1993] ($26,464)] ($29,463) ($23,820) “ 1994] ($26,464)] ($29,463) ($23,820) 7 1995} ($26,464)| ($29,463) ($23,820) “ 1996] ($26,464)] ($29,463) ($23,820) “ 1997) ($26,464)| ($29,463) ($23,820) " 1998} ($26,464)| ($29,463) ($23,820) “ 1999] ($26,464)] ($29,463) ($23,820) Savings: 2000] ($26,464)] ($29,463) ($23,820) Total: ($264, 640)| ($294,627)] ($347, 149)] ($238,200) APUC/PCE DATA, FY88 CURRENT SCENARIO, FY9O (Karluk has not filed for FY89) Fuel Cost: $28,159 Fuel Cost: $29,069 Kwh Sold: 136,976 Kwh Sold: 127,798 Non- fuel Cost: $27,143 Non-fuel Cost: $27,143 Kwh Sold: 136,976 Kwh Sold: 127,798 PCE Rate: 0.3028 PCE Rate: 0.3371 Elig. Kwh Sold: 87,398 Elig. Kwh Sold: 87,398 PCE Total Costs: $26,464 PCE Total Costs: $29,463 PCE Annual Savings: $2,644 NOTES: APUC/PCE DATA, FY88 New Proj vs. APUC/PCE Capital Cost: Simple Payback, years: Benefit Cost Ratio: Maximum Cost for 10yr Payback: NEW PROJECT SCENARIO, Fuel Cost: Kwh Sold: Non- fuel Cost: Kwh Sold: PCE Rate: Elig. Kwh Sold: PCE Total Costs: PCE Annual Savings: New Proj vs. Current Fuel Cost, Non-fuel Cost, and Kwh Sold are from the latest APUC PCE rate filing Eligible Kwh Sold is from the annual AEA FY88 PCE report CURRENT SCENARIO Fuel Cost is calculated based on FY88 generating fuel efficiency, kwh sold, and $/gallon for fuel $347,149 61.52 0.16 $56,427 FY90 $20, 384 127,798 $27,143 127,798 0.2725 87398 $23,820 35,643 Non-fuel Cost includes APUC/PCE DATA Non-fuel cost PLUS depreciation and interest expense for the new equipment Kwh Sold is from FY 88 PCE data Eligible Kwh Sold is from the annual AEA FY88 PCE report NEW PROJECT SCENARIO Fuel Cost Non-fuel Cost is from the latest APUC PCE rate filing Kwh Sold is from FY 88 PCE data Eligible Kwh Sold is from the annual AEA FY88 PCE report CURRENT SCENARIO NON-FUEL COSTS Non-Fuel Cost: $27,143 Capital Cost: $0 Depreciation Term: 10 yrs Interest Rate: 7.00% Real Interest Rate: 3.00% Inflation Rate: 3.90% Non-fuel Cost plus depreciation and interest expense: Depreciation and Interest Expense Page 2 is calculated based on FY88 generating fuel efficiency, kwh sold, and $/gallon for fuel $0 per year $27,143 per year # OF CUSTOMERS ANNUAL STATISTICS FY 88 ELIGIBLE KWH'S Page 2 Side 1 |M OF POPUL COMM COMM KWH‘S KWH'S. UTILITY [OATA ATION RESID COMRCL FACIL RESIO COMRCL FACIL TOTAL GENERATED SOLD | Russian Mission | 12 231 s2 8 4 128,128 38,514 9,864 176,506 453,480 420,452 Savoonga | 12 477 116 22 10 342,965 122,956 88 ,832 $54,753 1,185,520 1,099,440 Scammon 8ay | 12 303 89 12 7 291,027 64,624 40,336 395,987 680,280 650,948 Selawik | 12 589 134 19 10 415,895 88,533 141,336 645,764 1,052,640 1,003,618 Shageluk | 12 167 3 Ss 5 88,676 38,949 39,048 166,673 299 ,920 251,903 Shaktoolik | 12 166 45 7 5 197,320 50,581 62,640 310,541 487,360 450,378 Shishmaref | 12 444 116 16 8 395 , 861 94,998 120,451 611,310 977,400 955,442 Shungnak | 12 245 59 14 9 231,799 68,128 71,859 371,786 835,920 768,492 Stebbins | 12 384 78 1 W 184,377 48,072 67,407 299,856 572,080 481,781 St. Mary's | 12 563 116 24 11 443,689 148,305 203,209 795,203 1,926,320 1,568,145 St. Michael | 12 291 64 16 5 211,826 76,819 77,008 365,653 625 ,680 612,531 Togiak | 12 623 133 21 9 497,575 104,456 93,161 695,192 1,201,200 988 , 866 Toksook, Bay | 12 396 83 1S 7 311,538 70,362 43,025 424,925 768 ,600 685,505 Tununak | 12 338 7 12 W 177,365 67,371 74,742 319,478 621,920 476,801 Upper Kalskag { 12 1S 41 8 1 130,219 41,1046 6,365 177,688 9 154,123 wales | 12 150 40 9 7 113,241 44,989 53,997 212,227 361,671 345,090 Allakaket Energy Systems {11 195 56 4 7 71,670 19,462 13,743 104,875 126,468 106,150 | 12 86 22 2 4 60,376 18,123 8,901 87,398 308,633 Anorva Tic (Atka) | 12 93 30 7 7 78 ,223 33,803 43,672 155,698 195,640 197,853 Aniak Light & Power | 12 518 139 64 0 574,318 358,203 0 932,521 1,872,210 -1,645,149 Arctic Village Electric | 12 150 46 9 5 50,870 22,549 3,682 77,101 217,783 195,950 —Atmautluak Joint Utilities | 12 238 31 4 1 227,754 29,309 3,490 260,553 kis 1D £332,018 Beaver Electric | 6 87 37 7 2 18,553 19,315 8,280 46,148 82,233 76,918 Bethel Utilities Corp | 12 4,673 1,428 259 0 6,943,987 1,659,340 0 8,603,327 31,760,600 27,157,767 Bettles Light & Power | 12 67 32 30 0 120,651 159,446 0 280,097 945 ,600 825,281 Birch Creek Village | 12 50 17 6 4 17,820 33,660 25,377 76,857 122,421 106,487 8revig Mission Utility | 12 167 40 7 1 63679 20409 12126 96,214 0 105337 Buckland City Council | 6 269 60 6 5 73,667 11,139 11,621 96,427 103,456 86,503 Chalkyitsik Village Energy | Chenega Bay [RA Council | 10 80 22 1 3 48,134 7,500 32,840 88,474 131,122 125,089 Chignik Electric [11 132 63 5 8 180,986 21,322 22,683 224,991 300,319 300,319 Chignik Lake Elec Utility | Chitina Electric Inc | 12 42 25 12 3 84,701 34,286 1,014 120,001 166,249 146,269 Circle Electric Utility | 12 70 12 Z 3 42,978 50,332 6,500 99,810 194,183 200,273 Clarks Point, City of | 1 88 26 2 5 6,897 868 1,556 9,321 10,136 10,095 Coffman Cove Utility Assn | 12 175 54 12 3 346,516 72,716 48,172 467,404 633,946 633,946 Cordova Electric Co-Op { 12 2,558 865 410 49 4,684,024 1,800,674 1,828,849 8,313,547 20,842,032 19,773,667 Diomede City Council | 12 157 38 9 1 119,170 52,036 4,264 175,470 396,167 365,920 Eagle Power Co | 12 185 78 34 3 130,909 129,679 5,051 265,639 488,736 423, 186 Eagle Village Energy System| 12 54 19 0 3 39,239 0 18,051 57,290 60,650 $7,323 Egegik Light & Power | 12 96 48 23 5 160,391 123,890 31,455 315,736 $78,753 578,753 Ekwok, City of [11 108 38 Q 6 78,495 0 11,380 89,875 116,096 93,025 Elfin Cove Electric Utility| 12 65 19 13 3 53,297 53,507 22,925 129,729 169,007 139,513 False Pass Electric Assoc | 12 72 23 3 3 83,030 17,767 5,062 105,859 150,133 150,133 Far North Utility (Central)| 12 42 19 24 1 52,088 136,636 4,109 192,833 281,554 277,893 G&K, Inc. (Cold Bay) | 12 250 33 40 0 236,759 294,927 0 531,686 3,630,120 3,216,441 ANNUAL STATISTICS FY 88 AVR. FUEL | ELIGIBLE KWH/M KWH SYSTEM oP AVR ANN AVR PCE FUEL CONSUMED FUEL OPERATING PCE PAY- | COMM SOLD/ LOSSES COSTS/ PAYMNT/ AMOUNT B/GAL GAL. cost ($) COSTS ($) MENT ($) | RESIO COMRCL FACIL TOTAL GAL FUEL (%) KWH CusT ($) C/KWH " 43,989 39,937 " 46,803 | 204 397-206-229 Sell ilizes " 728 (6.5 " 87,795 86,252 " 145,177 | 267471 772315 12.57 7.3 " 989 26.2 " 66,054 61,405 " 103,718 | 273 449511 307 9.9 4.3 " 966 26.2 " 96,747 97, 689 " 164,229 | 258 385 1,160 328 10.46 4.7 " 1,002 5.4 " 31,120 29,382 " 43,612 | 236 708 630 338 8.1 16.0 “ 1,062 26.2 " 46,953 46,680 " 80,499 | 363 452 1,066 = 434 9.6 7.6 " 1,349 25.9 " 93,845 92,663 " 158,996 | 285 482 1,205 363 10.2 2.2 " 1,133 26.0 | ! 53,061 | ! " 162,608 167,418 " 201,670 | 325 515 1,539 445 9.7 18.5 " 1,356 25.4 " 70,687 66,193 " 96,913 | 277 452.—«1,262 367 677 et “ 1,166 26.0 “ 119,776 108 , 682 " 179,456 | 312 410 89% 356 8.3 17.7 " 1,103 25.8 " 85,598 79,912 " 111,304 | 315 404 506 = 340 8.0 10.8 " 1,069 26.2 “ 54,919 51,368 " 82,5466 | 201 468 56675 8.7 23.3 " 856 25.8 " 0 0 " 46,546 | 267 457 530 302 : : " 968 26.2 “ 26, 782 25,801 " 55,465 | 236 428 621 314 12.9 5.8 " 986 26.1 1.569 18,718 29,400 16,978 32,369 | 116 © 453 178 142 5.7 16.1 0.161 482 30.9 Gro 29,060 33,734 23,676 | 229 671 185 258 7.2 58.6 0.264 838 27.1 1.040 26,818 27,853 12,860 25,612 | 221 389-520. 297 7.2 1.9 0.067 585 16.4 1.112 152,538 170,968 360,000 229,120 | 345 469 0 38% 10.8 12.1 0.219 1,132 24.6 1.657 26,212 43,450 19,906 15,767 | 92 209 67 108 7.5 10.8 0.108 265 20.5 1.201 58,061 139,069 66,213 | 370 553 291 383 6.9 25.9 0.456 1,132 26.6 1.077 14,296 15,208 11,176 12,443 [| 83 439 591 164 5.4 6.5 0.165 265 27.0 1.163 2,168,860 2,525,272 1,800,000 617,509 | 405 534 0 425 12.6 14.5 0.066 366 7.2 1.153 86,931 103,609 152,891 96,232 | 316 437 0 + 375 9.5 12.7 0.358 1,546 34.6 1.389 13,833 19,278 13,973 26,021] 90 S10 529 266 7.7 13.0 0.131 926 31.3 0 0 26,996 20,857 | 131 252. 1,011 166 : - 0.338 433 21.7 1.263 27,337 40,385 | | 0.944 20,345 21,342 5,200 19,651 | 223 750 1,095 346 6.1 10.2 0.042 768 22.2 0.625 37,810 23,638 46,156 30,613 | 261 355 267266 7.9 = 0.156 398 13.6 | 0.758 22,004 18,593 72,538 28,471 | 280 238 28 2248 6.6 - 0.582 707 23.7 0.826 27,843 23,031 0 36,050 | 301 621 181 384 7.2 : = 1,666 36. 0.956 930 889 0 1,462 | 265 436 311 282 10.9 0.4 - 46 15.7 0.975 53,405 52,696 49,540 33,107 | 531 519 1,206 562 11.9 - 0.078 478 7. 0.757 1,577,362 1,194,023 1,720,767 626,964 | 451 366 3,137 523 41225. 225.1: = 02087 47% 7.5 1.000 36,778 37,648 192,314 21,615 | 261 500-355 307 9.9 7.6 0.526 453 12.3 0.937 41,465 38,462 94,829 72,067 | 160 314 123 191 10.2 13.4 0.226 622 27. 1.026 15,030 15,374 15,400 23,967 | 175 o 501 220 3.8 5.5 0.269 1,105 41.8 1.076 57,964 62,636 69,856 119,592 | 279 457 526 348 10.0 + 0.129 1,586 37.9 1.836 0 5,014 17,517 14,092 | 187 0 172 185 - 32.3 0.238 319 15.7 0.886 16, 726 14,657 16,718 19,935 | 260 334 588 =. 308 8.3 17.5 0.120 568 15.4 0.620 35,311 21,946 53,034 15,746 | 295 49% 141 300 4.3 > 0,386 535 16.9 0.765 30,350 23,252 115,192 53,049 | 233 476 362 369 9-277 65 0.-415t a ate 75 0.913 262,483 260,061 687,336 123,739 | 599616 0 608 12.3. 11.6 0.216 1,699 23.3 Page 2 Side 2