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Home My WebLink AboutISER Report Ketchikan Public Utilities 1998An —tyeterti 1c | _ DRAFT iH \ 2) 2 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA ANCHORAGE mmamImTemommHmaIeeMmaNeMmMIemamIememtMtaI me ae ooo lo KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY DRAFT | e Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics prepared for Ketchikan Public Utilities January 26, 1998 Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage Alaska 99508 907-786-7710 UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA ANCHORAGE 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage, Alaska 99508-8180 COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND Division of Economics and Public Policy ECONOMIC RESEARCH (907) 786-7710 FAX (907) 786-7739 Email: ayiser@uaa.alaska.edu January 30, 1998 Rich Trimble Ketchikan Public Utilities 2930 Tongass Avenue Ketchikan, Alaska 99901 Dear Mr. Trimble, I am pleased to send you 30 copies of the Draft of the Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study. The study contains three sets of projections of generation and sales through the year 2025. In all three CASES generation falls modestly in the near term in response to the restructuring of the Ketchikan economy after the closure of the Ketchikan Pulp Mill. Growth in generation subsequently resumes in all CASES as other sectors of the diversified Ketchikan economy continue to expand, following their own growth patterns. The summary projections of generation, which is defined in the study to include KPU diesel and hydroelectric generation, are presented in the first report table, Table A. You will notice that the values are marginally lower than those that I sent to you in late December. Lhave tried ta be conservative in the development of these projections of generation and you should keep that in mind as you use them. The LOW CASE projection probably represents a “worst case scenario” for Ketchikan as it combines an assumption of almost total elimination of the timber industry with one of practically no growth in other sectors of the economy. For this reason I think it forms a mos bound on the range of possible future generation levels. The BASE CASE should be interpreted as a median projection. That is it is the case which has a 50 percent likelihood of being less than and a 50 percent likelihood of being greater than the actual future generation level. Your planning should obviously take into consideration the fact that the cost to the utility of underestimating generation requirements is greater than the cost of overestimation. The BASE CASE excludes some elements that might be relevant in considering total generation requirements. First, projected generation is based upon average weather conditions. A DIVISION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA STATEWIDE SYSTEM OF HIGHER EDUCATION Since an estimated 15 percent of residential customers in your service territory heat with electricity, and an unknown portion of commercial and industrial customers also use electricity for space heating, total generation and the winter peak load will be higher in a colder than average winter. Second, we have not explicitly included sales to new heavy industry in the generation projection. This assumes new timber based industry may self generate. Whether that would actually be the case depends upon what the size and scope of these new activities might actually be. I have chosen to exclude any sales to new heavy industry since at this point in time to do so would be speculative. Third, I have assumed no extension of your service territory. Although there are no plans at present to expand, it is a future possibility. Finally, in the BASE CASE I have assumed no growth in the share of the Ketchikan housing stock that heats with electricity. With the exception of growth in the electric space heating share of the housing stock these same considerations apply to the HIGH CASE. As a consequence actual generation could be higher than projected in the HIGH CASE. The review of large and potential customers did not reveal any surprises. I have attached a summary sheet with the relevant comments from the detailed interviews. I can send you the detailed interviews if you like, but they do not contain any additional information. For the final report I would like to include data through the end of 1997. For this I will need data for each month in 1997 from the Monthly Revenue Summary and the Generation and Distribution Report. Finally you will see that in this report I have characterized the difference between “Sales” and “Generation” as the sum of “Large Industry Sales (sales to Ketchikan Pulp)”, “Unaccounted For”, “Line Loss” and “Utility Use”. “Unaccounted For” includes uncharged accounts but is too large in most years to be entirely uncharged accounts. I assume that the remaining residual is distribution loss. It would be good to clarify and verify that for the final report. If you feel it would be beneficial, I would be happy to schedule a trip to Ketchikan at your convenience to discuss the draft in advance of preparation of the final report. \ aud Sincerely, lentes ; Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics attachment Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY DRAFT Table of Contents BL SUMMARY oo cicciss sa ametieis 415 tr tueueinsose oo ctevejayeietes s OarepsGisisG 5 =n mmEuStt 6) e:er etree o/eie 1 2. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF THE KETCHIKAN ECONOMY AND POPULATION ..... 5] 2a: HEconomiciStructure carccre sisaasiewes tiem ciiiaseacgeiet widaeeee + anes. - > 2.b. Basic Sector Growth Since 1980 ...... 0... cece eee eee cent eee e eens 9 2.c. Pattern of Response and Change in Support Employment .................... 13 2.d. | Composition of Population and Households ....................00000200005 20 3. PROJECTIONS OF THE KETCHIKAN ECONOMY AND POPULATION ........... 23 3.a. The Current Economic Situation ..... 00.0... cece ccc eee ee eee 23 Sib; “Tamber'Scenarios (2) ices s odmemes © uae ee + syeiei a eesti et 46 23 3.c. _ Assumptions for Other Economic Sectors .......... 0.00. c cece eee eee ences 28 3id: _TotallProjected' Employment socne ss saccweam.-cssunne + owqyeuees Sages? a: 29 3.e. Time Profile of Employment ............... 0... c cece cece eee eee eee ees 53 3:f; Projected: Populatioht cas: nanmama + a2 seine scien pedaomers Avacee. +s 37 3.g. | Comparison with Sitka and South central Alaska ........0.. 0.0.00 cece cece 40 4. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF KETCHIKAN ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS ....... 50 4a. Residential Electric Sales... .. savmescs s ccceeeweseunaeae es wademm st hsneen 50 4.b. Commercial Electric Sales... 2.00... e eens 56 4c: ‘Votal_ElectricSal€s sanamaen += saan: nciineiers oe eee ss HAAGmIEG SA Awe 58 4:0... Generation! martasis = -)-tieiieane s/s sprees + OOO EAs Tamme 4 deeiqieres camer 64 5. PROJECTION OF KETCHIKAN ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS ............... 68 Si@, SUMMALY . goes ss aameers +s ttieicicioiele + scisignls 2s SORE + NER EYS 6 6 +1-Poie 68 5.b. Residential Sales 2.2... 0... ccc cc cee eee nett ene et eenecs 68 5.c. | Non-Residential (Commercial and Other) Sales and Unaccounted for Use ....... 77 Sid, Large Industtial Use or. icc eyes ss ssmomer 42 HAMMOS = 2 siomeiem os cae s Fame 82 D:6,, Review or large: Users . . qasemne ss nase d+ nce ss ondenmsstvanes sna. 83 5.f. Distribution Loss ..... 0. ccc ccc e cence ee eees 85 Se, Utty se) ee oem ss aciacioeries | aero “111i 21) ae oe naerns + 85 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY 1. SUMMARY Ketchikan Public Utilities (KPU) asked the Institute of Social and Economic Research to project electricity sales and generation requirements in Ketchikan in the coming years. Rather than one set of projections we have estimated a range of likely future growth, given different assumptions about important factors influencing the economy and electricity use. Throughout that range of likely growth--the LOW, BASE, and HIGH CASES— we project that electricity generation by KPU will temporarily drop but subsequently begin growing again, although at a slower rate than in the past. KPU asked for these projections because it is facing decisions about whether to increase its generating capacity, either through an intertie that would increase available hydropower, or through construction of more diesel-powered facilities. Estimating how electricity use in Ketchikan might grow in the future is complicated by the present uncertain status of the Ketchikan economy which will take several years to resolve through restructuring. During the transition it is natural to focus attention on immediate and often negative events. In this study we attemp not only to consider these near term events, but also what factors will be important in determining electricity use in the longer term. We believe that our projections are realistic since they are based on a conservative interpretation of historical patterns and trends in the Ketchikan economy and in electricity use patterns in Ketchikan. A number of factors will influence electricity generation requirements in the future, including: . the health of the timber industry in the region . development of new large scale processing facilities for timber and seafood : extent to which new industry self generates electricity for their own needs . growth of other sectors of the economy including tourism, seafood, federal government, state government, regional center activities, and household income from nonwage sources . relative attractiveness of electric space heating, and : potential expansion of the service territory We anticipate onl ion i ici les in the near term for several reasons. First, we anticipate that the support sector employment decline will be small as support businesses attempt to “tough it out” during this period of uncertainty. Second, we expect the (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 1 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study percent decline in population to be less than that of employment as some people move out of the work force but remain in the community. Third, since residential sales are primarily a function of the housing stock which we do not expect to decline, we anticipate that residential sales will not fall significantly. Fourth, Commercial and Industrial electricity sales directly to the timber industry form a very small share of the total, so the direct effect of a recession in the timber sector on electricity sales will be small. (Sales to Ketchikan Pulp Company (KPC) is a separate category and not included in Commercial or Industrial Sales.) Fifth, in a recession we expect commercial sales to be related to the number of businesses rather than jobs. In the BASE CASE projection we adopt a set of conservative assumptions regarding the future direction of the factors influencing growth. We assume that after several years of uncertainty, employment in the timber industry stabilizes at 45 percent of the 1996 level and that non-timber employment grows at a 1 percent annual rate. The large scale processing facilities associated with the new uses of the pulp mill neither purchase nor sell electricity to KPU. Furthermore we assume no increase in the share of the housing stock heating with electricity and no extensions of the utility service territory. In the BASE CASE annual generation (combined generation of KPU diesel and hydroelectric capacity) falls from a peak in 1995 of 159 thousand MWH to 145 thousand MWH in 1998. This is the result of reductions in residential and non-residential sales as well as the termination of the sale of electricity to the KPC. (A temporary dip in 1997 to 139 thousand MWH is the result of temporary sales by KPC to KPU.) Growth resumes in 1999 and averages about 1.2 percent annually after that. This rate of growth is below the historical growth rate in generation due to the drag on the economy imposed by the reduction in the timber industry. The 1995 level of generation is reached in 2007. (Table A.) - In the HIGH CASE we assume that the timber industry stabilizes at an employment level 60 percent of the 1996 level, and that non-timber employment grows at an annual rate of 2 percent. As in the BASE CASE we assume that the large scale processing facilities associated with the new uses of the pulp mill neither purchase nor sell electricity to KPU. Consistent with the historical trend we assume in this case a modest increase in the share of the housing stock heating with electricity, but as with the BASE CASE that there are no extensions of the utility service territory. Generation in this CASE recovers to the 1995 level by 2002 as a result of more rapid economic growth and more intensive use of electricity. In the LOW CASE we assume that the timber industry stabilizes at an employment level only 15 percent of the 1996 level, and that non-timber employment grows at an annual rate of .5 percent. At this level of activity in the timber industry there are no large scale processing facilities associated with the pulp mill that could either purchase or sell electricity to KPU. We assume no increase in the share of the housing stock heating with electricity and no extensions of the utility service territory. In this CASE generation growth is very slow and only returns to the 1995 level in 2019. a acacia (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 2 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE A. KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES PROJECTIONS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION (MWh) GENERATION GENERATION RESIDENTIAL SALES NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES NET GROSS AND UNACCOUNTED FOR HIST BASE HIGH Low HIST BASE HIGH Low HIST BASE HIGH Low 1970 61,121 27,128 1971 63,252 29,248 1972 66,086 30,797 1973 68,709 30,958 1974 68,171 NA 1975 NA 32,838 1978 NA 35,059 1977 NA 35,082 1978 NA 36,754 1979 NA 37,462 1980 84,227 39,135 42,423 1981 86,077 42,834 44,771 1982 96,052 43,164 50,505 1983 97,096 44,961 49,040 1984 107,966 51,292 48,867 1985 113,487 49,236 53.444 1986 105,499 46,795 $4,475 1987 111,501 46,904 55,325 1988 134,953 49,269 63,872 1989 129,190 52,812 65,691 1990 139,443 $4,115 70,304 1991 142,387 $6,031 74,080 1992 149,757 $4,277 73,371 1993 138,643 53,188 79,262 1994 150,794 58,594 84,005 1995 154,232 159,008 159,008 __ 159,008 $5472 55472___—$5.472__—55.472 89,380 —-89,380__—89,380__—89.380 1996 158,287 158,287 158,287 59.264 59.264 —«SS9,264 69,169 69,169 «69,169 1997 139,039 139,039 __139,039 56,560 56,560__——56,560 85,230 85,230_——85.230 F986 145,242 146,703 144,948" 55,440 56,000 56,000 C4215 85,060 83,373 1999 145,425 148,176 143,174 $6,000 56,840 $5,440 83,832 85,637 82,227 2000 146,584 152,191 142,453 $6,560 58,834 55.440 84,387 87,504 81,534 2007 146430 “156,795 “142,450 57,120 3510 55.440 85,0024 OT 2002 150,921 161,479 142,849 $8,257 61,824 55,440 86,860 © 93,444 81,914 2003 152,733 165,912 143,269 $8,839 63,376 $5,440 88,019 96,155 82,318 2004 154,478 170,150 144,391 59,428 64,967 56,000 89,108 98,639 «82.837 2005 156,243 174,373__-145,517 60,022 66,597 56,560 90,212 101,069 83,360 2006 158,030 176,705 ‘146,646 60,622 68,269 57,120 91,329 103,563 83,686 2007 159,838 183,149 148,079 61,228 69,982 57,968 92,462 106,122 84,415 2008 161,668 187,708 148,935 61,841 71,739 58,258 93,609 108,750 64,948 2009 163,520 192,385 149,796 62.459 73,540 $8,550 94,772 111,446 85,485 2010 165,395 197,183 150,662 63,084 75,385 58,842 95,950 114.214 86,025 2011 167,292 202,106 151,533 63,715 7,278 —«59,1368 97,143 117,055 66,568 2012 169,212 207,155 152,410 64,352 79,217 = $9,432 98,352 119,970 87,116 2013 171,156 212,335 153,292 64,995 81,206 $9,729 99,578 122,963 87.666 2014 173,123 217,650 154,179 65,645 83,244 60,028 100,819 126,035 88,221 2015 175,113 223,101___155,071 66,302 -85,333_—_—60,328 102,077___129,187__—88,779 i 177.1 x 155, . 4 103,351 A aT 2017 179,167 234,432 156,873 67.634 89,671 60,933 104,642 135,745 89.906 2018 181,231 240,319 157,782 68,311 91,922 61,238 105,950 139,154 90.476 2019 183,320 246,358 158,696 68,994 94,229 61,544 107,276 142,653 91,049 2020 185435 252,553 159,616 69,684 96,594 61,851 108.619 146,245 91,626 2027 187,574 258,909 160,542 70,381 99,018 62,161 109,979 _—*149,932__—«*92,.206 2022 189,740 265,429 161,473 71,084 101,504 62,472 111,358 153,716 92.791 2023 191,932 272,119 162,410 71,795 104,052 62,784 112,755 157,601 93,379 2024 194,151 278,981 163,352 72,513 106,663 63,098 114,170 161,588 93,972 2025 196,396 286,022 164,301 73,238 © 109,341 63,413 115,604 165,680 94,568 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES 1970-1980 3.3% 37% a 1980-1990 5.2% 3.3% 5.2% 1990-1995 2.0% 0.5% 4.9% 1995-2000 “1.6% 0.9% 2.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% AAW% 04% “1.8% 2000-2005 1.3% 28% 04% 1.2% 25% 0.4% 1.3% 2.9% 04% 2005-2010 1.1% 25% 0.7% 1.0% 25% 0.8% 1.2% 25% 0.6% 2010-2025 1.2% 2.5% 0.6% 1.0% 25% 0.5% 1.3% 25% 0.6% GENERATION PROJECTION CONSISTENT WITH SYSTEM GROSS GENERATION FROM GENERATION AND DISTRIBUTION REPORT OF KPU. HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 3 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE A. (part 2.) KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES PROJECTIONS OF ECONOMIC VARIABLES TOTAL EMPLOYMENT POPULATION (INCLUDES SELF EMPLOYED 4 MILITARY) HIST BASE HIGH Low HIST BASE HIGH LOW 1970 0 10,200 1971 ° 10,200 1972 o 10,300 1973 o 10,500 1974 ° 10,700 1975 0 10,900 1976 0 11,200 1977 ° 11,400 1978 ° 11,600 1979 0 11,800 1980 7,048 11,316 1981 6,824 12,042 1982 7,103 12,268 1983 7,322 12,459 1984 7,214 12,438 1985, 7,663 12,623 1986 8,128 12,729 1987 8,880 12,793 1988 9,372 12,594 1989 9,680 13,259 1990 10,397 13,828 1991 9,892 14,261 1992 9.874 14,536 1993 10,258 14,535 1994 10,419 14,638 1995 10,733 10,733 10,733 14,771 14,771 14,771 14,771 1996 10,600 10,600 14,701 14,701 14,701 1997 10,109 10,109 14,360 14,360 14,360 1998 9,894 9,919 14,210 14,228 14,089 1999 9,885 10,020 14,204 14,512 14,053 2000 10,009 10,335 14,446 14,803 13,941 2001 10,117 10,693 14,490 15,099 14,010 2002 10,228 10,953 14,635 15,401 14,080 2003 10,330 11,187 14,781 15,709 14,151 2004 10,425 11,399 14,929 16,023 14,221 2005 10,522 11,606 15,078 16,343 14,293 2006 10,619 11,817 15,229 16,670 14,364 2007 10,718 12,032 15,381 17,004 14436 2008 10,817 12,252 15,535 17,344 14,508 2009 10.918 12.475 15,690 17,690 14,581 2010 11,019 12,704 15,847 18,044 14,653 2011 11,121 12,937 16,006 18,405 14,727 2012 11,225 13,174 16,166 18,773 14,800 2013 11,329 13,416 16,327 19,149 14,874 2014 11,435 13,663 16,491 19,532 14,949 2015 11,542 13.915 10,147 16,655 19,922 15,023 2016 11,649 14,173 10,196 16,822 20,321 15,099 2017 11,758 14,435 10,245 16,990 20,727 15,174 2018 11,868 14,702 10,295 17,160 21,142 15,250 2019 11,979 14,975 10,345 17,332 21,565 15,326 2020 12,091 15,253 10,395 17,505 21,996 15,403 2021 12,204 15,537 10,446 17,680 22,43 15,480 2022 12,318 15,827 10,496 17,857 22,884 15,557 2023 12446 16,122 10,547 18,035 23,342 15,635 2024 12,550 16.423 10,599 18,216 23,809 15,713 2025 12,668 16,730 10,650 18,398 (24,285 15,792 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES 1970-1980 ERR 1.0% 1980-1990 4.0% 2.0% 1990-1995, 06% 1.3% 1995-2000 14% 08% 24% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% 2000-2005, 1.0% 2.3% 0.3% 1.0% 2.0% 05% 2005-2010 09% 1.8% 05% 1.0% 2.0% 05% 2010-2025 0.9% 1.9% 05% 1.0% 2.0% 0.5% HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 4 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 2. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF THE KETCHIKAN ECONOMY AND POPULATION 2.a. Economic Structure Analysis of the structure of a regional economy usually begins with the identification of the Basic Sectors. Basic Sectors can be defined as those activities that bring purchasing power into the region from outside its borders. There are nine important sources of money flows into the Ketchikan economy. Using a simple economic base model which attributes all employment generated and income earned within the economy to one of these Basic Sectors, we can produce a rough estimate of the relative importance of each of the Basic Sectors to the Ketchikan economy. Total personal income paid to Ketchikan Gateway Borough residents in 1995 was $437 million from all sources (Figure 1.). Employment, including active duty military and self employed, totaled 10.72 thousand (Figure 2.). Timber. Not surprisingly timber harvesting and processing accounted for the largest share of personal income, about $93.2 million or 21.3 percent of the total, and of jobs, about 2.66 thousand or 24.8 percent of the total. These estimates include not only the employment and wages associated with timber harvesting and processing, but also its supporting infrastructure and economic activity supported by local procurement and payrolls. The employment share is larger than the income share due to the relatively high wages paid in timber harvesting and processing relative to support activities, as well as the fact that some of the nine sources of money flows and income we identify, like the Alaska Permanent Fund, only generate jobs indirectly. Federal Civilian. Next in order of importance was the various civilian activities of the federal government which accounted for about $92.2 million, or 21.1 percent of total income earned by residents and 1.64 thousand jobs (15.3 percent). The importance of the federal government to the Ketchikan economy comes not so much from the presence of about 300 federal employees, but primarily from the transfer payments to households that flow into the economy from the federal government, and to the support to state and local government provided by federal transfers to those entities. Transfer payments of $50 million to individuals (excluding the Permanent Fund dividend) accounted for 11 percent of total personal income in 1995. Based on statewide figures we estimate that 60 percent of those transfers were Federal transfers--social security payments, medical assistance, veterans benefits, income maintenance, etc.--that are not associated with another Basic industry. In other words the flow of income into the community from those sources is not contingent upon the presence of any of the other Basic industries in the community. Oil. Oil accounted for about $88.8 million, or 20.3 percent of total income earned by residents in 1995 and 2.17 thousand jobs (20.2 percent). The importance of oil to the Ketchikan economy is due to the fact that about 85 percent of the state government budget is paid for by oil, and the state government budget is an important driver of the economy of the state and its regions. State government spending supports not only the 567 state government employees located in Ketchikan, but also through state to local government transfers, a large share of the (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 5 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 1. 20.3% OIL INCOME 11.8% SEAFOOD 21.1% FEDERAL CIVILIAN SHARE OF TOTAL INCOME 1995 KETCHIKAN 21.3% TIMBER 4.3% MISC INCOME 4.7% PERMANENT FUND 3.7% FEDERAL MILITARY 4.3% REGIONAL CENTER 8.3% TOURISM 1995 TOTAL INCOME $437.4 100.0% (million $) TIMBER $93.2 21.3% FEDERAL CIVILIAN $92.2 21.1% OIL INCOME $88.8 20.3% SEAFOOD $51.7 11.8% TOURISM $36.5 8.3% PERMANENT FUND $20.5 4.7% MISC INCOME $19.0 4.3% REGIONAL CENTER $19.0 4.3% FEDERAL MILITARY $16.2 3.7% AGRICULTURE $0.2 0.0% MINING $0.1 0.0% OIL PRODUCTION $0.0 0.0% AIDKETCH.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 6 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 2. 15.3% FEDERAL CIVILIAN SHARE OF TOTAL JOBS 1995 KETCHIKAN 20.2% OIL INCOME 24.8% TIMBER 4.2% FEDERAL MILITARY 2.4% REGIONAL CENTER 2.4% MISC INCOME 2.6% PERMANENT FUND 15.6% SEAFOOD 2.2% TOURISM 1995 TOTAL JOBS 10.72 100.0% (thousand) TIMBER 2.66 24.8% OIL INCOME 2.17 20.2% FEDERAL CIVILIAN 1.64 15.3% SEAFOOD 1.67 15.6% TOURISM 1.31 12.2% PERMANENT FUND 0.28 2.6% MISC INCOME 0.26 24% REGIONAL CENTER 0.26 2.4% FEDERAL MILITARY 0.46 4.2% AGRICULTURE 0.00 0.0% OIL PRODUCTION 0.00 0.0% MINING 0.00 0.0% AIDKETCH.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 7 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 916 local government employees. Furthermore, the state budget supports a large capital budget, loans programs, and transfer payments directly to individuals (for example the longevity bonus). Fishing. Next in order of importance to the Ketchikan economy was the $51.7 million attributable to fish harvesting and fish processing, accounting for 11.8 percent of total income. . Total employment associated with this sector was 1.67 thousand or 15.6 percent. (Fish harvesting employment does not appear in the wage and salary employment figures because most harvesters are self employed.) Together these four Basic Sectors accounted for 3/4 of the total personal income earned by Ketchikan residents and employment in the community. Five other activities accounted for the remainder of personal income and employment. Tourism. Tourism accounted for $36.5 million of personal income in 1995, about 8.3 percent of the total, and 1.31 thousand jobs (12.2 percent). Our definition of tourism is the activity generated by pleasure visitor expenditures. It excludes the influence of spending by residents of the greater Ketchikan region as well as non-resident business spending of fishermen and others. Permanent Fund. About $12.3 million was paid out in Permanent Fund dividends to residents of Ketchikan in 1995 and this accounted for total personal income of $20.5 million, about 4.7 percent of the total. Spending of Permanent Fund dividends supported about .28 thousand jobs in the local economy (2.6 percent). Miscellaneous income. About $10 million of the $58 million of dividend, interest, and rental payments to Ketchikan residents in 1995 was estimated to flow into the regional economy independent of activity in any of the other Basic sectors of the economy. This source of purchasing power resulted in $19.0 million in personal income and employment of .26 thousand (2.4 percent). Regional Hub. Ketchikan serves as the regional center for the Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan Census Area. Households and businesses in this area, with a 1995 population of 6.750 thousand, employment of 2.88 thousand, and total personal income of $126 million, rely on Ketchikan as an important source for transportation, personal and business services, and retail trade. We estimate that the purchasing power that impacts Ketchikan from this source is equal to the contribution from miscellaneous income. This results in total personal income to Ketchikan of $19 million and employment of .26 thousand. Federal military. The expenditures in support of the 212 active duty military in Ketchikan in 1995 generated total personal income for the regional economy of $16.2 million and employment of .46 thousand (4.2 percent). These estimates of the contribution of each Basic Sector activity to the Ketchikan economy are based on a very aggregate analysis and they could be refined by more detailed analysis of the sources of income and the monetary flows through the Ketchikan economy. A (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 8 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study more detailed analysis would result in some shares getting a little bigger and some a bit smaller, but the general pattern would not change. Several important observations emerge from this analysis. First, timber is the most important source of Basic Sector activity for the Ketchikan economy, particularly in relation to the two other significant private Basic Sectors with a direct presence in the economy--seafood and tourism. Second, there are a large number of sources of income for the Ketchikan economy which provide economic diversification. Third, a large share of the money flows into the Ketchikan economy come from relatively invisible sources. Oil money is one such invisible source. Oil revenues support state and local government activities including transfers to individuals. In their absence state and local government activities would be dramatically scaled back and disposable household incomes would be significantly reduced due to higher taxes and lower payments from government. Other sources of income flowing into the community independent of jobs include the Permanent Fund dividend, dividend-interest-and rental income (miscellaneous income), and income from Ketchikan’s status as a regional hub. Together these other sources of income account for nearly $60 million of total Ketchikan personal income. These sources of income provide another important source of diversification for the economy. 2.b. Basic Sector Growth Since 1980 Natural Resource Cycles have been the most obvious factor influencing economic growth in the Ketchikan economy since 1980. Economic growth since 1980 can best be understood as a positive trend influenced by significant natural resource cycles. Figure 3. shows the annual growth rate in employment, both total and wage and salary (net of active duty military and self employed), for the Ketchikan and Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan Census Areas, as well as the two Census Areas combined (Greater Ketchikan). It is useful to look at Greater Ketchikan as an economic region because of the many employment and income links between Ketchikan and Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan. The patterns of growth for Ketchikan and Prince of Wales are somewhat complimentary in that growth was more rapid in Ketchikan in the mid 1980's and more rapid in Prince of Wales in the early 1980's. The result was positive growth for the entire Greater Ketchikan Area throughout the 1980's, with annual increases averaging more than 5 percent for the six year period from 1985 to 1990. Greater Ketchikan experienced slower growth in the early 1980's, averaging 3 percent annually, as well as the 1990's, .7 percent, due to two years of employment decline in 1991 and 1992. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 9 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 3. 10% EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE KETCHIKAN 5% 0% -5% 10% — 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 — ALL JOBS — WAGE AND SALARY JOBS 20% EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE PRINCE OF WALES--OUTER KETCH \ 10% EN 0% VAN IM V I 10% = 1980 1982 1964 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 — ALL JOBS — WAGE AND SALARY JOBS 10% EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE GREATER KETCHIKAN 5% 0% -5% -10% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 — ALL JOBS — WAGE AND SALARY JOBS | EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 10 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study The slow growth in the early part of the 1980's is partially the result of the cyclical decline in the timber industry. The rapid growth in the mid 1980's was primarily due to the increase in the value of the timber and seafood harvests. This is reflected in the large employment growth shown in Figure 4. in both logging-sawmill and seafood processing employment starting in 1985 in Ketchikan. A very pronounced cycle appears in logging-sawmill employment which peaks in 1990 while seafood harvesting employment, which peaked in the same year, does not exhibit the same magnitude of cycle. Oil Revenue Boom. This boom in the second half of the 1980's, as well as the slow growth in the first half of the 1980's is the opposite of what was happening in much of the rest of the state during the 1980's. This was the decade of the oil price boom, when high oil prices drove up petroleum revenues to unprecedented heights in the first half of the decade and low oil prices drove petroleum revenues down in the second half. Government spending of oil revenues fueled rapid economic growth in the first half of the decade and set the stage for a severe recession which occurred between 1986 and 1989. Growth in state and local government employment did occur in Ketchikan, but the effect of the oil boom cycle was less pronounced there than in other locations. Tourism increased steadily through the 1980's and into the 1990's, particularly with the expansion of the number and average size of cruise ships visiting the community. The growth of independent travelers, although not as rapid, has also contributed to expansion of this sector of the economy. Federal Government employment has declined at 1.2 percent annually since 1980. However transfer payments, the majority of which are funded by the federal government, have grown at twice the rate of total income (inflation adjusted) and have increased from 8.5 percent to 14.2 percent of total income since 1980. (Total transfer payments includes the Permanent Fund Dividend). The Permanent Fund Dividend, was first paid in 1982. It has gradually grown in importance as a part of personal income for Ketchikan residents. Miscellaneous Income, defined as the small portion of dividends--interest--rent income that is independent of other Basic Sector activity, has grown at a 4.4 percent annual rate (inflation adjusted) and has been a small contributor to overall economic growth. The importance of Ketchikan as a Regional Hub has also increased with the growth of the Prince of Wales--Outer Ketchikan Census Area, which has outpaced that of Ketchikan in employment, income, and population growth since 1980. Table 1. compares growth rates for the two Census Areas and shows that Prince of Wales--Outer Ketchikan growth has exceeded that of Ketchikan as measured by each of these indicators. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 11 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 4. KETCHIKAN EMPLOYMENT DETAIL TIMBER AND SEAFOOD PROCESSING 800 A 600 \ 400 2 = ail aaa eva 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 n le 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 42 SEAFOOD PROCESSING -& LOGGING AND SAWMILLS PULP 1000 EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 12 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study TABLE 1. GROWTH RATES KETCHIKAN PRINCE OF WALES-- OUTER KETCHIKAN EMPLOYMENT | | 2.8 % 4.9% REAL PERSONAL 2.9% 3.8% INCOME POPULATION | 1.8% 3.9% Although Military employment has fluctuated from year to year, it has not experienced a trend since 1980. Real wages paid to the military have however increased at a 3.4 percent annual rate with most of the growth occurring after 1988. Thus some growth can be attributable to this Basic Sector. 2.c. Pattern of Response and Change in Support Employment The overall pattern of growth of the Ketchikan economy and population is illustrated by Figure 5. which shows the index of growth since 1980 of employment, real personal income, and population. We see that employment by 1990 was nearly 50 percent above the 1980 base. After a pause over the next 2 years, growth resumed, albeit at a slower rate. In 1995 employment was 52 percent above the 1980 level. Real personal income growth tracked employment fairly closely although it lagged somewhat in the mid 1980's. By 1995 it was also 52 percent above the 1980 level. On the other hand population growth has been much slower than employment. There was little growth at all between 1983 and 1988. This was followed by a spurt between 1988 and 1992, over a period when employment also grew rapidly but subsequently fell. Since 1992 the population has not increased appreciably. Generally we would expect to see total employment grow in response to growth in Basic Sector income. This is because infrastructure jobs--construction, transportation, communications, utilities, and business services--and support jobs--trade, finance, and services-- depend upon local purchases and payrolls generated by Basic Sector income and purchases. For example if a fish processing plant locates in the community it makes local purchases from many of the businesses in the community, and its payrolls support spending by the households in the community on a range of goods and services. In addition we would expect that over time the infrastructure and support sectors would increase as a result of maturation of the regional economy. This is due to two factors. First as economic activity within the region grows and demand increases, economies of scale should make it possible to offer a wider variety of goods and services within the local economy. These economies of scale may include the transportation of goods from outside the region and this combined with possible increases in competition within the local economy may lead to (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 13 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 5. KETCHIKAN : GROWTH INDICES 1980 = 100 160 140 120 a 100 eS 80 1 1 1 1 A. 1 1 1 1 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 @POP EMP ~REALPI EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 14 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study reductions in relative costs in the region, which could further foster local provision of goods and services. Second, the national trend toward services as a share of personal consumption expenditures (relative to manufactured goods) means there is more opportunity for consumer purchases to be provided by local businesses rather than imported from a distant manufacturing site. An additional reason for an increase in the infrastructure and support sectors over time would be due to increasing real income per capita and with it purchasing power. This has in fact been an important factor in the growth of the Ketchikan economy since 1980 as real (1996) per capita income has increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent since 1980, growing from $25,743 to $31,450. The increase occurred before 1990, and there has been no growth in per capita income since that time. Figure 6. shows that growth in support employment, as defined by wage and salary trade/service employment has in fact outstripped total employment growth between 1980 and 1995 albeit not by a large margin. But considering the strong growth in real per capita personal income, as well as the fact that tourism and regional hub employment is concentrated in trade and services, the growth in support employment is not remarkable. It suggests that neither economies of scale, the shift to a service based economy, or increasing real per capita personal income, has been a strong contributor to support sector employment growth in Ketchikan. This conclusion is tempered however by the fact that growth in the self employed portion of the work force has been particularly rapid, particularly in the mid 1980's and a majority of the self employed are in trade and services. However some growth in self employment is due to growth in the seafood industry in the 1980's. Furthermore the definition of self employment was broadened in 1984 and some of the growth we observe may be an artifact of that change in definition. Figure 7. provides a further perspective on the relationship between Basic Sector and Support activity. It shows the level of wage and salary employment in manufacturing (fish processing, timber harvesting, and timber processing) plus government (financed primarily by sources outside the local economy) compared to that of wage and salary employment in trade and services which is primarily dependent upon locally generated payrolls. Although there has been an upward trend in both categories of employment, trade and service employment does not show the significant cycle evident in manufacturing employment. There has been a tendency for trade/service employment to grow more rapidly than basic over the entire period, but for most of the cycle trade/service growth has lagged. The other important characteristic of the relationship between Basic and Support employment evident from Figure 7. is that the year to year change in Support employment has often not even been in the same direction as the change in Basic employment. This was particularly the case in the early 1980's and has also been true in recent years. It is necessary to look at the pattern of change over a period of several years to understand the relationship between the two sectors. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 15 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 6. KETCHIKAN EMPLOYMENT:GROWTH INDEX 1980 = 100 250 200 150 100 et A : a eae. ~ 50 1 PONS oy ! I 1 ! l 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 a MANU © INF # TRADE/SERVICE © FED & S&L @ SELF EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 16 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 7. KETCHIKAN EMPLOYMENT SECTOR COMPARISON 4,000 J /\ 3,500 / oe | / ° ~ a / g mw > A 3 3,000 Stee E INMATE 4) mu \ | / o” VA 2,500 | ft = eo Ss ee 2,000 ¢ 1 L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 w MANU/GOVT @ TRADE/SERVICE | EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 17 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study There are a number of reasons why Support employment will not respond in lock-step fashion to changes in Basic employment, and why the growth of the Support sector in Ketchikan may left the community somewhat under served. First, Basic employment is an indicator, but not an accurate measure of the Basic income flowing into the regional economy. As already indicated the Permanent Fund dividend, miscellaneous income, and regional hub income, and state and federal money all flow into Ketchikan without associated jobs. Changes in these flows will not be reflected in changes in Basic employment but do increase local purchasing power that stimulates Support employment. Second, tourism activity has been increasing without the boom and bust cycle associated with timber and seafood. This provides a steady source of trade/service employment growth. Third, there is normally a lag, often of many years, between the time that Basic income increases in a region and the support sector response works its way through the economy. This may be due to lack of information or lack of entrepreneurial resources. One can see this phenomenon at work in larger places like Anchorage and Juneau. Dramatic increases in retail trade opportunities happened in the early 1990's as the “retail boxes” moved into these regions independent of any real growth in Basic activity. Uncertainty about the future of the economy could be another reason for a lag in the development of Support activities. Because a large share of the Basic sector employment growth in Ketchikan in the 1980's was attributable to cyclical natural resource industries, there may have been some reluctance by business to invest in Support businesses. The uncertainty over the future of the pulp mill may also have contributed to this reluctance in recent years. Fifth, the proximity of Seattle may have served, and continue to serve as a deterrent to the development of a more complete local Support sector. The high average real income of the population suggests an ability to travel and this may lead to a higher proportion of consumer purchases of goods and services outside the community that other towns of comparable size in Alaska. Finally, some of the growth in Basic employment during the 1980's, and subsequent decline in Basic employment in the early 1990's was partially insulated from the Support sector of the Ketchikan economy because it was taken by non-residents. Based on an annual review by the Alaska Department of Labor the two industries with the largest share of non-Alaska resident labor are fish processing and logging. For example near the height of the seafood and timber harvesting boom in 1988 the non-Alaska resident share of food manufacturing was 48 percent and of logging 28 percent. In contrast the share across all industries was 8 percent. This is reflected in data for Ketchikan for the same year. Table 2. shows the share of non- resident employment by industry. The share is highest in manufacturing, which includes fish processing and timber harvesting, and next highest in construction, which also tends to be cyclical. The total share of non-residents employment in Ketchikan of 23 percent is also quite high compared to the statewide figure of 17 percent and that of other regions of the state. For (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 18 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study example in Juneau 13 percent of workers were non-Alaskans in that year. Furthermore this data only reflects firms headquartered in Alaska. Many of the seafood and logging firms are headquartered outside the state. The non-resident share of these firms is generally higher than those with headquarters within the state. RESIDENT 10,342 AGRICULTURE MINING 0 0 CONSTRUCTION 758 389 MANUFACTURING 2,474 1,477 TRANSPORTATION 1,578 260 WHOLE TRADE 285 71 RETAIL TRADE | 1,815 375 FINANCE | 272 25 SERVICES 1,755 383 LOCAL GOVT 1,323 90 This non-Alaska resident employment and earnings was partially offset by the importation of earnings by Ketchikan residents. It is not possible to estimate the size of this inflow since only the net flow of income out of Ketchikan is reported in preparing the personal income statistics for the regional economy. However in most years the non-resident earnings reported by the Alaska Department of Labor have been about twice the size of the net residence adjustment reported by the US Department of Commerce. This suggests some gross inflow of earnings, probably from Prince of Wales--Outer Ketchikan. It is difficult to draw conclusions on the magnitude of flows from this data. For example one further complication is that some firms may report employment in Ketchikan, where they are headquartered, which are physically located in the Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan Census Area. In that case jobs reported in Ketchikan may actually be taken by non-residents and the associated income, reported in Ketchikan, may actually accrue to residents of Prince of Wales- Outer Ketchikan. In summary, the growth of the Support sector of the Ketchikan economy has followed that of the Basic sectors, but it has not tracked closely and there are some reasons to suspect that (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 19 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study its growth has lagged somewhat due to a number of factors. These would include uncertainty, the large number of non-Alaska resident workers, proximity to Seattle, normal time lags, lack of entrepreneurs, and lack of information about the market. This suggests some continued growth of the Support sector of the economy might occur in the absence of Basic Sector growth. In fact that has happened for the last several years. a ee ata eae oa OLED 2.d. Composition of Population and Households Since 1980 annual population growth in Ketchikan has averaged 1.8 percent compared to 2.8 percent annual growth for employment. As a consequence the ratio of population to jobs in Ketchikan has fallen from about 1.75 in 1981 to just under 1.4 in 1995. This would suggest that Ketchikan has a high labor force participation rate and a low unemployment rate. However the unemployment rate in Ketchikan is not unusually low and thus we cannot conclude that the labor market is particularly tight. The increase in the number of jobs may mean that the number of multiple job holders has increased, particularly since the fastest growing job category during this period has been the self-employed. The population of Ketchikan, like the rest of the state, has significantly aged since 1980, but Ketchikan has an older population than the state. Figure 8. which contrasts the Ketchikan age distribution in 1980 and 1995 clearly demonstrates this change in the age structure of the population. ac EL a IPN RR NPE ra proportion of older Alaskans has inc d. The shift has been so pronounced that the absolute ze of the population aged 15 to 30 has declined by several hundred. Over the same time period the 45 to 55 population has more than doubled in size. Although the proportion of the population over 65 is larger in Ketchikan than the state as a whole, and it has been increasing faster than total population, its growth rate has been slower than in the rest of the state. Table 3. shows the size of each age group and growth since 1980. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 20 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 8. AGE DISTRIBUTION OF KETCHIKAN POPULATION | 12% “Re “PENN TN : ST 0% °-? 04 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 5-9 15-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75-79 85+ AGE GROUP @1980 — 1995 PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION POPKETCH.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 21 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Percent Change 0-4 996 1103 10.7 % 5-9 911 1170 28.4% 24% | -1.5% -19.5 % -14.9% 30-34 23.0 % 35-39 67.3 % 40-44 | 695 1437 106.8 % 45-49 | 522 1213 132.4 % 50-54 | 585 946 61.7% 55-59 S11 636 “Tas % 60-64 348 425 22.1% 65+ 642 1089 69.6 % The aging of the population has implications for both population stability and the sources of income. As people age they tend to put down roots in a community and this reduces their likelihood to move. Older people tend to have more financial assets, including retirement income, which is a source of income independent of wages paid in to current employees. Retirement income appears in the personal income statistics when it is accrued by workers rather than when it is actually received by retirees. Consequently its importance as a source of income to the community cannot be measured from existing statistics and we can estimate its importance only from the size of the over 65 population. Since this population continues to increase in Ketchikan we can conclude that this source of income to the community is becoming increasingly important. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 22 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 3. PROJECTIONS OF THE KETCHIKAN ECONOMY AND POPULATION 3.a. The Current Economic Situation Employment was essentially constant between 1995 and 1996, and preliminary information for 1997 suggests that as of yet there has been no decline in response to the closure of the Ketchikan Pulp mill early in the year. Figure 9. shows the number of workers employed each month for the last several years. The number of employed workers for each month of 1997 has been above the level for 1996. Several factors account for the delay in the job loss from the mill closure negatively impact overall employment levels. These factors include the work force retained to close the mill, the severance pay to former employees, the draw on savings by former employees to pay for living expenses, unemployment insurance payments, and the special federal appropriation to South east communities to mitigate to economic loss from the reduction in allowable annual sales from the Tongass National Forest to 267 million board feet under the new Tongass Land Management Plan. Although the timber harvest in the mid 1990's is only about half that of the peak in 1990 we assume that the Ketchikan economy is not contracting in response to that decline. This is because a large share of the labor force associated with timber harvesting was non-resident and as a result the Support Sector of the economy did not expand during the timber boom to the extent it might have if all the jobs went to residents. As a consequence the effect on total employment and population of the loss in timber harvest was less severe than might have been expected. 3.b. Timber Scenarios The closure of the Ketchikan pulp mill and the reduction of the allowable annual sales from the Tongass National Forest to 267 million board feet have resulted in an uncertain future for the timber industry in Southeast Alaska. The range of projections for the actual timber harvest and the number of jobs within the region that the harvest might support is extremely wide. One position based on a recent study by two US Forest Service economists is that demand will support only a fraction of the allowable annual sales (Timber Products Output and Timber Harvests in Alaska: Projections for 1997-2010, by David J. Brooks and Richard W. Haynes., 1997). This study makes no employment projections but does not rule out the possibility of the establishment of various value added manufacturing industries as consumers of the projected demand. Another position is that intensive small scale manufacturing can produce more regional employment from a smaller harvest than was generated in past years with a much larger harvest (Modeling a Small-scale Secondary Manufacturing Timber Industry for Southeast Alaska--A Draft Working Paper, by Dave Katz in Southeast Timber Task Force Report prepared for Governor Tony Knowles, 1997). (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 23 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 9. KETCHIKAN : MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 Lo . t \ L 1 \ \ 1 1. \ L @97 ©96 495 994 693 | source: Alaska Department of Labor LABFRKET.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 24 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Since the industry will continue to be in transition for at least several years it is impossible to project a single future scenario for the timber industry at this time. For the purpose of projecting Ketchikan Public Utility electric generation requirements in future years we have developed three different generic scenarios. Each is based on an estimate of the number harvesting, sawmill, and manufacturing jobs in the timber industry in the Ketchikan economy in future years. The starting point for the scenarios is an estimate of 900 jobs in 1996 divided among 500 in pulp manufacture, 300 in logging, and 100 in saw milling. These figures are based on an estimate of timber employment for the Southern region of Southeast Alaska of approximately 1,200, of which 300 were residing outside of Ketchikan. The assumptions of the Mid Case scenario are as follows: LOYME! LE 4° MID GA PULP MILL SAWMILL HARVESTING 500 100 50 IS | 100 100 100 [2001+ 100 100 | 200 | In this scenario we assume some alternative timber manufacturing activity eventually develops and with annual average employment of 100. This could be a veneer plant, a fish waste plant, ethanol plant, other value added manufacturing, or some combination of facilities. The exact nature of the activity is not as important as the number of jobs created. The supply of timber is sufficient to existing sawmill operating and the logging employment stabilizes at 200. After a transition employment in the timber industry stabilizes at 400 compared to 900 prior to the closure of the pulp mill and imposition of the 267 million board foot harvest ceiling. Based upon this scenario we can also project the total number of jobs in the economy, in construction, transportation, trade, services, etc. each year that are attributable to the timber industry. For this purpose we use an economic multiplier with a value of approximately 1.9. This means that 9 jobs in the construction, transportation, trade, service, and other sectors of the economy depend upon every 10 jobs in the timber industry. This multiplier is an estimate of the number of total jobs in the economy that would be lost for each job lost in the timber industry. We use a multiplier value to analyze contraction of an industry that is somewhat less than we would use in the case of an expansion of industry. This is based review of the experiences of other regions in Alaska that have suffered recessions in recent years (see below). (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 25 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study For an employment level of 900 in the timber industry, we estimate total employment dependent on timber, or at risk from a decline in the timber industry, to be 1,700. Furthermore, we estimate that the multiplier effect of any change in timber employment will occur over a 4 year period. One third of the effect (33 percent) will be felt in the first year, two thirds (66 percent) in the second year, 89 percent in the third year, and 100 percent of the multiplier effect will be felt in year four and every year thereafter. Using these assumptions about the multiplier and its lag structure, the total impact of the cumulative loss of 500 timber jobs would be as shown in Table 5. The annual loss of timber jobs is most pronounced in 1997 with an additional loss in 1998 for a cumulative los of 600 timber jobs. In the next 2 years 200 jobs are added in manufacturing and harvesting and at that time timber employment stabilizes at the constant level of 400 jobs, a reduction of 500 jobs from the 1996 level of 900. The loss of jobs elsewhere in the economy peaks at 490 in 2000 even as employment in timber is growing. When conditions stabilize in 2003 the total job loss from the cumulative loss of 500 timber jobs is 950. CUMULATIVE TOTAL LOSS JOB LOSS 1996 0 | 1997 475 1998 600 | 922 1999 | 325 -25 =P) 477 | 1022 2000 | 400 -75 500 490 990 2001 | 400 0 500 475 975 me 0 500 457 957 2003+ 400-0 500 450 950 The assumptions of the Low Case scenario have been chosen to represent a worst case alternative. In this scenario no alternative timber manufacturing activity develops and processing employment falls to 0. The supply of timber is sufficient to keep the existing sawmills operating only through the current contract. A reduced level of logging is all that remains of the industry by the year 2000. After the transition employment in the timber industry stabilizes at 150 compared to 900 prior to the closure of the pulp mill. This is shown in Table 6. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 26 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study HARVESTING 100 300 100 200 | 100 100 | 100 150 lo 150 lo 150 500 125 The total impact of the cumulative loss of 750 timber jobs, using the multiplier and lag structure assumptions presented above, is shown in Table 7. The job loss stabilizes at 1,425 in 2003. Joss | ANNUAL | CUMULATIVE | MULTIPLIER | TOTAL Loss _| LOSS LOSS JOB LOSS 1996 900 |o 0 0 lo 197 42s | 475 475 142 | 617 1998 [200 [22s | 700 352 | 1,052 1999 250 | (50) 650 500 | 1,150 2000 150 | 100 750 607 1,357 2001 150 |o 750 650 1,400 2002 150 [0 750 665 1,410 2003+ 150__|0 750 675 1,425 The assumptions of the High Case scenario have been chosen to represent an optimistic case. In this scenario either a large scale or several smaller scale alternative timber manufacturing activities develop. Processing employment stabilizes at 200. The supply of timber is sufficient to keep the existing sawmills operating through the current contract and production eventually expands. A reduced level of logging provides a steady supply of timber to the processors. After the transition employment in the timber industry stabilizes at 550 compared to 900 prior to the closure of the pulp mill. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 27 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study SAWMILL HARVESTING 100 300 200 100 100 200 200 The total impact of the cumulative loss of 350 timber jobs using the multiplier and lag structure assumptions described above, is shown in Table 9. CUMULATIVE LOSS LOSS JOB LOSS 0 0 425 475 142 617 1998 [250 _ | 175 650 337 987 1999 300 | 60) 600 470 1,070 2000 450 | (150) 450 492 942 2001 550 | (100) 350 425 715 2002 550 |0 350 360 710 2003 550 |0 350 325 675 2004+ 550 | 0 350 315 665 3.c. Assumptions for Other Economic Sectors We assume three different growth rates for non-timber dependent employment to combine with our three timber scenarios. These growth rates are based on our most recent set of state and regional economic projections done for the State of Alaska Department of (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 28 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Transportation (DOT) using the ISER MAP Model of Alaska (Alaska’s Economy and Population, 1959-2020, March 1996). The assumptions regarding timber manufacturing in those projections are approximately equivalent to those in our three timber scenarios developed for this study. In the DOT projections we assumed that the Ketchikan pulp mill would close. In the base case DOT projection we assumed alternative manufacturing employment of 200 would replace 40 percent of the lost jobs. In the high case we assumed 300 replacement jobs and in the low case 100 replacement jobs. The assumptions regarding timber harvesting and sawmill employment were more optimistic than our current timber scenarios. In the base case we assumed constant employment at the 1996 level. In the high case we assumed a .5 percent growth rate, and in the low case we assumed a | percent decline rate. Consequently the overall projections of wage and salary employment in the DOT report of approximately 0, 1, and 2 percent respectively are somewhat higher than would be the case if we substituted the timber scenarios for the logging assumptions made for that study. Thus we have assigned these growth rates to the non-timber dependent sector of the Ketchikan economy for our employment projections. The result is that the total employment growth rates, combining the non-timber dependent employment growth with the timber scenarios, will be consistent with, but lower than, the DOT projections. Thee non-timber growth rates are as follows: Mid case 1 percent Low case .5 percent High case 2 percent The Mid case growth rate of 1 percent is approximately 100 new jobs per year. This number of new jobs could be attained in many different ways. One alternative that would generate that rate of job growth would be a 6 percent growth in tourism activity and 1 percent real increases in federal dollars, miscellaneous income, and Permanent Fund dividend payments coming into the community. The high case represents approximately 200 new jobs per year. This could be attained by some expansion in seafood processing, some growth from the provision of services to outlying areas, and the development of mining activity in the region. The low case represents the addition of less than 50 jobs per year. This could be accomplished by growth in tourism of 4 percent with no increases in any other sector. 3. d. Total Projected Employment The BASE CASE total employment (including military active duty and the self employed) projection, based on the combination of the mid case timber scenario with the mid case non-timber dependent growth rate, is shown in Table 10. The HIGH CASE projection of employment combines the high timber scenario with the high non-timber related employment growth rate (Table 11.). The LOW CASE projection of employment combines the low timber scenario with the low non-timber dependent employment growth rate (Table 12.). The overall growth rates for the entire forecast period are .6 1.6, and 0 percent annually respectively. For (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 29 Electric Load Growth Study D. Ketchikan Public Utilities YM’ PNLSIH sth S'6LE 86e'al e9g'%t = 268'bL = Z'9LL 0s6 OS 00s 0 oor 00z oF 00 Sz0z 6eZl = BLL 91z'aL oss'Zt = pdd'bE = 2'9LL os6 Os 00s 0 oor 00z oor 00} ¥Z0z LUZ SLA Seo'st ver'ZL = LSOEL = OLE osé Osr 00s 0 oor 00z 001 00} €z0z Giz 7 9b 1S8'Lb Bre'zt = ZyS'bh TOLL osé osy 00s 0 oor 00z oor 001 2z0z eOzb bSbE 0g9' Lb vozr'zt = BZH'bE OLE os6 osr 00s 0 oor 00z 00+ 001 +Z0z VELL = OPEL SOs'LL te0'%L = wLE'LEL |= Z'9LL osé Osy 00s 0 00r 00z 00+ 00 0z0z 6LtL = O'ELE zee'Lt 6l6 1b = 207 FL TOLL osé Os¢ 00s 0 oor 002 00! 00} 640z LObb GbEE Ogb'Zt eget 260 =z 9LL 0s6 Os 00s 0 oor 00z 001 00} 810 QStb BOL 066'91 BSL'bL = 2860. 7 OLL 0s6 Os 00s 0 oor 002 ool ool L402 vybtL © 6'601 zz8'ob GyO'lL el8'0L «= Z9LL 0s6 Os 00s 0 oor 002 001 00} 9102 ell 6'80b Ss9'9L ZyS'tL = S9L'OL Ss ZLL 0s6 osr 00s 0 oor 00z oo: oo} Sb0z ZZL SB LOL +6r'9L Str'bt 6S9'0h Z9LL 0s6 osy 00s 0 00r 00z Ob oor vb0z VELL 6901 lze'9b 6ze'lt esS'Oh Z9LL 0s6 Osr 00s 0 00r 00z oF 00! e10z OOlL 6°SOL 994'9L S@Zbb = GP'OL «= Z'9LL osé Osy 00s 0 oor 00z 001 00! Z40z 680 6 POL 900'9} WEVLE = Sve'OL« Z9LL osé Oosy 00s 0 00r 00z 00L 001 bb0z S10l 6'€0L Lve'St GlO'LL = evz'Oh TOLL osé osr 00s 0 oor 00z 001 00! o10z Z£90+ —O'EO4 069'S} BIe'OL = beF'OL © Z9LL osé Osr 00s 0 00+ 00z oor 001 6002 LSOL = O'ZOL ses'St Lbe'OL = OTOL. ss ZL 0s6 Os 00s 0 oor 00z 00+ 00 800z Qy0l =F bO bee's SbZ'OL =. 266 Z9LL osé Osy 00s 0 oor 00z 001 oor 2002 QO 2001 6227'S} 619'0 —- E86 Z9LL os6 OS 00s 0 or 00z oo} oor 9002 970L 866 8L0'St @zs'0l = 9PL'6 Z9LL os6 OS 00s 0 00r 00z 00+ 00} $002 Stok 86 626'rb Stv'0L = 6 #96 Z9LL os6 os 00s 0 oor 00z oor oo ¥00z S00 16 8l'bb oce'ol = ¥SS'6 Z9LL os6 Osy 00s 0 oor 00z 001 oor £002 S66 S96 Seo'rt 8zZ'0 = 6S ¥'6 Leo S'LS6 ssp 00s 0 00r 00z 00} 00} z00z 9°86 ¥'S6 O6y' FL ZbF'Ok = S96 ZESL S16 Sly 00s 0 oor 00z oor 00+ 00z 9°26 v6 ore'rh 600'0L = £176 79eL 066 O6r 00s SL 00 00z 001 00 0002 996 wee v02' rt $886 +8t'6 LeoL S@20b 9 SLbY Sls Se- Sze OSt oor SL 6661 £96 SEB OLz'rb v68'6 060'6 £08 S226 Sze 009 St oo ost 001 os 8661 £16 ¥'S6 oge'rt 60F'0F = 0006 L8ObL SLL9 Sth Sly Sly Sty 002 oor St L661 O'00l = 0'00k bOL'rh bog'ok §=6S48'8 = 2 OZLb 0 006 oo 001 00s asva %9°0 %00r Asvo 3SVa Y3EWIL = ald asva SSO1 3AILV1_ SONVHO wns ONID TIN TIN XSQNI X3QNI NON nw Wows = Yalld = =-NWND TWANNY “901 MVS dind dOd gor dOd wns HLIM ssol -lL7NW uaeWiL WlOlL +0 saor WWLOL zo 3aSve WONs SSO7 saor uaeniL £0 £0 SASVO € YOS SNOILGWNSSV LNSWAO1dW3 0) 318VL January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 30 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Ketchikan Public Utilities YAM’ PNLSIH ZSob = BLS S82' ve oez'ob 699'S} @ SOL s99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 OS} 002 SZ0Z O7%9L 86 HSE 608'€2 €2p'ob z9e'St 7490 S99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z ¥20Z 8'8Sb VZSL Zre'ez 249th 90'S Z 4901 s99 SLE ose 0 oss 002 Ost 002 £202 LSStL = © 6hL vee'zz 27'S S9Z'yL ZH9OL s99 Sle ose 0 oss 002 Ost 002 220% 97S OOF ger'2z Les'St OLy'yL Zz +90b s99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 Os} 002 420% 96h BEF 966' 12 €S2'Sb 26h'Pb Z 490 S99 ste ose 0 oss 002 Ost 002 0202 LOovk fbb S9S'LZ S6'vb vie'eL Z 490 s99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z 6102 Ser Leer ZpE'be ZOL'vL byo'eL 7490 $99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z 8102 ObpL = Z9EL L2L'02 Ser'rt vLe'eL Zz 490 s99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z L402 weet Lee bze'0% eLb'yb bEbeL 7490 s99 Sle ose 0 oss 002 ost 00z 9402 SStt Ele 7Z6'6+ SL6'EL vse'Z 7490 s99 Sle ose 0 oss 002 Ost 002 Soe 6Zet 682 zes'6b e99'eb Z09'Zb 7490 s99 Sle ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z vboz COs g9Z 6rL'6L Obr'eL sse'zb Z 490 s99 ste ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z £b0z LLtL veh €LL'8b vLLeL ebb 2b 7490 s99 SLE ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z ZL0% @SZtL = (OCA SOv'st Le6'Zb SZ8'bb 7 +SOL s99 Sle ose 0 oss 00% OS} 002 b0z LUZ BELL vp0'st vol'Zt Zyo'bb Zz +901 s99 Sle ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00% 0102 foe = LLbb 069'L} SLv'zb vbe'be Z +901 sso GbE ose 0 oss 00z ost 002 6002 O8lt StL vre'Lt ZS2'Z OGLE ZOOL S99 Ste ose 0 oss 00z ost 002 8007 “Stb GEL ¥00'Lt Ze0'Zb 26°01 Zz H9OL S99 Ste ose 0 oss 00z ost 002 2002 VELL SbLE 02991 Lbe'bh 9S2'0L ZL9OL s99 Sle ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z 9002 ZhbE = S601 €ve'ot 909"F 1 SvS'Ob 7490 s99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 OSt 00z $002 O60b SLOb £Z0'9L 66e'bF 8ec'OL Z+SOL s99 Ste ose 0 oss 002 Ost 002 v00z 690t SSO 60Z'St ZOb'bb SEL'OL ZHSOL sl9 Sze ose 0 oss 002 Ost 002 £002 8 y0l €E0l bor'st €S6'0L 1€6'6 Z9bOL Ord oge ose 0 oss 002 Ost 00z 7002 Z70l = B'OOF 660'S €69'01 Zrl'6 Zo 1S6 SLL Sty ose OO} oss 002 Ost 00z 400z 400k S26 £08’ S€e'oL 4Ss'6 Lesl S76 S26P Osr OS} osy 002 OOF Ost 0002 286 sv6 ZLS'vb 0zo'OL voe'6 z9s9 OO} Olv 009 os- oo€ OOF OOF OOF 6661 8°96 9't6 82Z' bb 616'6 08t'6 L8eL S186 GLEE osg Slt ose OOL OO} os 866) £16 ¥'S6 oge'rt 60F'OL 000'6 Z80lL SLL9 Str Sly Sle Sty 002 00} SZ L661 O'00F 0001 bOl'vb bo9'0k © 8'8 Zezlt 0 006 o0€ oor 00s asve %I+ = —%00% ASVO HOIH YwaeWiL Yad 3SVe sso7 3AILV1 = AONVHO Wns ONID TIN TUAW XS0NI XSOQNI NON LAW Wous Yad “AWND IWANNV “907 MVS did dOd sor dOd wns HLIM sso7 “LNW aan Wiol +0 saor WLOl zo ASV WOYS SSO7 seor yaeniL £0 £0 SASVO € HOS SNOILGWNSSV LNSWAO1dW3 U A1evL January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 31 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Ketchikan Public Utilities YM 'PN.LSIH yL0L S'001 Z6L'SL osg'oL §=s BE‘OL ss ZOE S@pL S19 osz 0 OSt Ost 0 0 SZ0% 6901 O°001 ebl'St 66S'0L 670k. «= 740 Sth $19 OsZ 0 Osh Ost 0 0 ¥z0z y90l S66 seo'st LyS'0L = ObZ'O0L_ ss TLE SZ slo os 0 Ost OS 0 0 €z0z 8S0l 066 2ss'St 96r'0L S6r'OL ZOE Sth S19 OsZ 0 Os} Ost 0 0 2z0z esol S'86 Ogr'St Qyr'OL = rrL'OL «= ZL Str sg Os 0 Ost Ost 0 0 +z0z S'y0l +86 £0r'St S6e'0L = rB0'OL. «= 240 Styl sl9 oss 0 Ost OSs} 0 0 0z0z ev0l 916 9ze'St Sye'oL = pvO'OL. «ss ZOE SZ sl9 OsZ 0 ost Ost 0 0 6402 zeok | 6 osz'st S6Z'0L = P8666 zoe SZrh sg Os 0 Ost Ost 0 0 810z Ze0L «86996 PLES Svz'0L —- bHB'G zLoe SZ Sz9 os 0 Ost Ost 0 0 L402 Ltt = 296 660'S} 9610 S686 zboe Szph $19 OSZ 0 ost ost 0 0 9402 zzok | L'S6 €20'S} LyV'ol = S¥8°6 zoe Szph $19 OSZ 0 ost ost 0 0 S40 LoL 86256 6r6'rL 860'0L 961'6 zLoEe Sz slg os 0 ost Ost 0 0 vb Oz ZO 8 v6 ¥le'yh 6y0'0L = 8r'6 zLoe Szyh slg os 0 Ost Ost 0 0 e40z LOO = €'¥6 008'rt 000'0F 6696 zoe Strh S19 OsZ 0 Ost Ost 0 0 Z40z Z00k «= 6 £6 l@l'vb 7S6'6 +S9'6 zoe Sz slg os 0 ost Ost 0 0 bL0z £666 es9'rh ¥06'6 £09'6 zoe Sth S19 OSsZ 0 ost ost 0 0 o1oz 766 (OEE besS'rh 958'6 sss'6 zoe Sth sl9 OsZ 0 ost ost 0 0 6002 Lee S76 80S'r 608'6 80S'6 zbo0Ee Szrh slo os 0 Ost Ost 0 0 800z 286 26 9er'rh 4926 09¢'6 z' Loe Styl slg OsZ 0 ost ost 0 0 200z Ll6 (Ol6 v9oe'rl vbL'6 ere zL0Ee SZyL sg os 0 Ost ost 0 0 9002 wTl6 716 £62'hb 899'6 99e'6 zoe SZ sl9 OSZ 0 Ost Ost 0 0 S002 £96806 b2Z'pb +29'6 oze’6 z'1oEe Sz SZ9 OsZ 0 ost ost 0 0 ¥00Z e96 806 1SE'yE S2S'6 £226 z'b0Ee Sz SZ9 os 0 ost Ost 0 0 £002 8S6 006 080'rt 8es'6 L22'6 The Sty sg9 os 0 Ost Os} 0 0 z00z ese 1'68 OL0'rL 80S‘6 18h'6 zaze oor osg OsZ 0 Ost ost 0 0 +00z Sr6 L168 bre'eL ¥0S'6 9eL'6 Lege slstt $°L09 OsZ ool Ost ost 0 0 0002 956 716 €S0'rb 999'6 060'6 z9ls OSH 00s os9 os- sz ost oo 0 6661 es6 816 680'rl 616 S¥0'6 Lela Sz7sok s'zse oo Sz 00z 00+ oor 0 8661 L160 (SE oge'yt 60l'0L 000'6 L801 SLL9 SZ Sly Sly Sty 00z 00+ Sz 1661 O00! o'001 bOL'v hoo‘ok «= S488 = Z'9ZLb 0 006 oo oor 00s asva %00 = %0S°0 3SVO MO1 yaeWIL = YaId asve SSO1 3AILV17_ 39NVHO wns ONID TIN TIN X30NI X3OQNI NON wanw WOY¥S = =YaIId = -NWND —WANNY -901 MVS dind dOd aor dOd wns HLIM ssol -lL1NW uaeWilL WlOl +0 sor TWLOL zo aSv@ WOU SSOT saor uaeniL £0 £0 SASVO € YOS SNOILGWNSSV LNSWAO1dW3 “TI ATEVL Page 32 January 28, 1998/DRAFT (KETCHLOAD.wpd) Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study comparison the DOT employment projections are presented in Table 13. Figure 10. graphically displays the DOT projections of employment and population while Figure 11. shows the employment projections we use in this study. a ees | _ PROJECTIONS 3.e. Time Profile of Employment Growth in the non-timber economy will eventually offset the employment decline associated with the reduction in the scale of the timber sector. The pattern of total employment will depend upon the magnitude of the reduction of the timber sector and the rate of growth of the non-timber sector. The near term total employment pattern for each projection is shown in Figure 12. Using the assumptions of our BASE CASE the number jobs in the Ketchikan economy bottoms out in 1999. In that year the index of total employment, using 1996 as the base of 100, is 93.2. This represents a decline of about 700 total jobs. Subsequent modest recovery of the timber economy combined with 1 percent annual growth of the non-timber sector results in a return to the 1996 level of employment by 2006. From that time the annual growth rate of employment is just under | percent, closely following the growth rate of the non-timber sector. This is shown in Table 10. In the HIGH CASE the number of jobs in the Ketchikan economy bottoms out in 1998. In that year the index of total employment, using 1996 as the base of 100, is 93.6. This (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 33 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE. 10. 1996 = 100 115 ISER MAP PROJECTION: BASE CASE INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 4a W&S EMPLOYMENT -¢ POPULATION | 1996 = 100 140 130 120 110 100 90 ISER MAP PROJECTION: HIGH CASE INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 4a, W&S EMPLOYMENT -@ POPULATION | 1996 = 100 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 ISER MAP PROJECTION: LOW CASE INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 4a: W&S EMPLOYMENT -@ POPULATION | HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 34 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 11. KETCHIKAN EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION = ao = o ade S = Nn Thousands = o aaa ep a a BASE 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 @MID HIGH «LOW HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 35 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 12. 12 11 ae] 2 10 aw : 5 ra 1 2 £9 - # 8 4 1985 1990 1985 2000 2005 # HISTORY @# BASE *& HIGH & LOW HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 36 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study represents a decline of a little less than 700 total jobs. Subsequent recovery of the timber economy combined with 2 percent annual growth of the non-timber sector results in a rapid return to the 1996 level of employment by 2001. From that time the annual growth rate of employment is just under 2 percent, closely following the growth rate of the non-timber sector. (Table 11.) Using the assumptions of our LOW CASE the number jobs in the Ketchikan economy does not bottom out until 2000. In that year the index of total employment, using 1996 as the base of 100, is 89.7. This represents a decline of about 1,100 total jobs. The subsequent modest growth of the non-timber sector (.5 percent annually) does not return employment to the 1996 level until 2024 in this case. (Table 12.) 3.f. Projected Population Through the 1980's Ketchikan population grew more slowly than employment but since about 1990 the rates of change have been approximately the same. We assume that population growth in the future will be slightly more rapid than employment growth. This reflects the assumption that the population will continue to age. The labor force participation rate of older Alaskans is less than that of younger Alaskans, and the retiree population is expected to continue to increase as a share of the total. For simplicity we assume that when employment is growing, the population growth rate will be equal to the non-timber dependent employment growth rate. Thus in the BASE CASE the population growth rate is 1 percent annually. In the low case it is .5 percent and in the high case it is 2 percent. The population projections for each case are included in Tables 10. through 12. When projected employment is declining we assume that population will also decline, but at a slower rate than employment. This reflects the fact that out migration is not the only way for the labor market to clear. Part of the excess labor supply may be eliminated by an increase in the unemployment rate or a reduction in the labor force participation rate. We assume that when the number of jobs is declining, the decline in population will occur at half the rate of employment decline. These assumptions result in population projections somewhat lower than our most recent set of state and regional economic projections done for the State of Alaska Department of Transportation using the ISER MAP Model of Alaska (Alaska’s Economy and Population, 1959- 2020, March 1996). This is consistent with the fact that the MAP projections are based on the assumption of relatively constant employment in timber harvesting and sawmills compared to the more recent assumptions of significant decline in this sector. The MAP projections are shown in Table 14. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 37 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study The time pattern of population in the near term using these assumptions is shown in Figure 13. Using the assumptions of our BASE CASE the Ketchikan population bottoms out in 1999. In that year the index of total population, using 1996 as the base of 100, is 96.6. This represents a decline of about 500 people. Subsequent modest recovery of the timber economy combined with 1 percent annual growth of the non-timber sector results in a return to the 1996 level of population by 2003. From that time the annual growth rate of population is just under 1 percent, closely following the growth rate of non-timber sector employment. Using the assumptions of our HIGH CASE the Ketchikan population bottoms out in 1998. In that year the index of total population, using 1996 as the base of 100, is 96.8. This represents a decline of about 500 people. Subsequent modest recovery of the timber economy combined with 2 percent annual growth of the non-timber sector results in a return to the 1996 level of population by 2000. From that time the annual growth rate of population is just under 2 percent, closely following the growth rate of non-timber sector employment. Using the assumptions of our LOW CASE the Ketchikan population bottoms out in 2000. In that year the index of total population, using 1996 as the base of 100, is 94.8. This represents a decline of about 700 people. The slow (.5 percent) annual growth of the non-timber sector results in a return to the 1996 level of population by 2011. From that time the annual growth rate of population is just under .5 percent, closely following the growth rate of non-timber sector employment. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 38 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 13. 17 16 POPULATION a B15 = oO $ amet L 214 EB 13 7 12 pes 4 oy po . ‘ a piace 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 a HISTORY # BASE #& HIGH BLOW HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 39 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 3.g. Comparison with Sitka and South central Alaska The closure of the pulp mill in Sitka in 1993 caused an economic shock to that community similar in magnitude to the closure of the Ketchikan pulp mill. Manufacturing employment, which includes the pulp mill and logging, fell by 400 from more than 700 in the early 1990's to about 300 after the closure. Total employment fell by about 400 from 1993 to 1994, but subsequently stabilized and began to increase. Population fell about 400 between 1992 and 1996. The pattern of change for these variables, using an index of 1993 = 100 is shown in Figure 14. The preliminary evidence from 1997 is consistent with this pattern of slow recovery. Figure 15 shows the number of persons employed in Sitka households by month through the fall of 1997. By this measure employment is higher in 1997 than in 1993. Growth in other sectors of the Sitka economy cushioned the shock from the pulp mill closure. Figure 16. presents the index of employment (1993 =100) for aggregations of all the categories of wage and salary employment of the Sitka economy except manufacturing. Services employment has continued to grow and was 20 percent above the 1993 level by 1996. Trade has remained fairly constant while infrastructure has declined about 5 percent. State and local government is at the same level in 1996 as 1993. Federal employment has declined by the largest amount. Proprietor employment has changed very little. The strength of the trade and service sectors of the Sitka economy can be traced to at least 3 factors. The first is the general trend in the US economy toward a higher proportion of service jobs. The second is the continued growth of tourism which is primarily reflected in trade and service employment (as well as infrastructure and proprietors). The third is the threshold effect. Once a certain level of demand or purchasing power has been reached in a community there exists an opportunity for new businesses to become established. The decision to invest depends upon the business being able to cover all of its costs, both fixed and variable, as well as return a profit. However when demand or purchasing power in the community declines the decision of a business to continue operations in the short run depends only on the variable costs. As long as the business is covering its variable costs and paying some portion of its fixed costs, which it is required to pay whether or not it continues to operate, it is likely to continue in business. Consequently the level of demand or purchasing power required to maintain a particular level of support employment will be less than the level of demand necessary to reach that level of support employment. These are several reasons to believe that the support employment and population response to the closure of the Ketchikan pulp mill would be similar in pattern and relative magnitude to the response in Sitka. First, the share of total employment attributable to the mill in each case is comparable. Second, the composition of the population in each community is similar (Figure 17.) Third in both cases a portion of trade and service employment is dependent upon tourism and is therefore insulated from changes in activity in other Basic sectors. Fourth, both have other non-wage sources of purchasing power that support trade and service jobs. In the case of Ketchikan it is the outlying communities in the Prince of Wales-Outer Ketchikan Census Area. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 40 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 14. SITKA : GROWTH INDICES 1993 = 100 104 102 } eS, S ™" i Q 100 INAS sean o 94 a oe el 1990 1992 1994 1996 @ POP « EMP «WS EMP GREAL PI EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 41 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 15. SITKA : MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT| 5200 5000 4800 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 1 L _L 1 1 = 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 i 8 9 10 41 12 LABFRKET.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 42 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 16. SITKA : GROWTH INDICES 1993 = 100 120 Y 110 100 90 1990 1992 1994 1996 @ INF @TRADE «SERVICE FED GVT «S&L GVT «PROP EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 43 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study DISTANCE DELIVERY EDUCATION ISER FIGURE 17. AGE DISTRIBUTION OF 1996 POPULATION CONTRASTING KETCHIKAN AND SITKA LARS 2 i Ts # ‘ $ \ 7 \ 12% PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION ¥ — 4% ®& Pe 0% 4 1 1 L 1 1 1 1 1 _ 7 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 AGE GROUP — SITKA KETCHIKAN POPCHANG.WK4 01/15/98 1 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 44 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study In the case of Sitka it is the large share of total income that comes from non-wage sources. In Ketchikan in 1995 27 percent of personal in come came from dividends-interest-rent and transfers while in Sitka it was 35 percent. (This compares to 29 percent for the state as a whole.) Using the assumptions of our LOW CASE the Ketchikan population bottoms out in 2000. In that year the index of total population, using 1996 as the base of 100, is 94.8. This represents a decline of about 700 people. The slow (.5 percent) annual growth of the non-timber sector results in a return to the 1996 level of population by 2011. From that time the annual growth rate of population is just under .5 percent, closely following the growth rate of non-timber sector employment. One factor that suggests the negative support employment response in Ketchikan to mill closure might be less than in Sitka is that Ketchikan may be somewhat under served as measured by the ratio of support employment to real personal income. The number of jobs in retail trade and services in Ketchikan and Sitka per million dollars of real personal income is shown in Figure 18. Whereas there has been a gradual increase in the number of support jobs for each $1 million of personal income in Sitka since 1980, there has been little net change in Ketchikan over the same period. For example by 1995 there were 5 service jobs in Sitka for every $1 million of personal income, while in Ketchikan there were only 3. By this crude measure and using Sitka as the base, the Ketchikan economy had a deficit of about 800 jobs. (The statewide average for 1995 was 4.1 service jobs per $1 million of personal income.) If Ketchikan were under served relative to Sitka or the state then it is less likely that a reduction in timber sector employment and income would have as large a negative effect on support employment as was the case in Sitka. As discussed above there are a number of possible reasons to explain why the support sector might be under represented in Ketchikan. One possible reason for the absence of support sector expansion in Ketchikan since the 1980's could be a combination of the cyclical nature of the growth--mostly driven by timber and seafood--and a high share of non-Alaska resident employment in the impacted industries. These factors may have led investors to be particularly cautious about the prospects for investments to expand trade and service businesses in the community. South central Alaska in the later half of the 1980's provides another example of the pattern of employment and population response to a negative economic shock. The shock that struck the state economy in 1995 in response to the slowdown in state spending was felt particularly hard in South central Alaska. One important indicator of the magnitude of the downward shock was the drop in construction employment in Anchorage shown in Figure 19. which was primarily dependent on the spending of petroleum revenues by state government. The share of total jobs lost to the Anchorage economy as a result of this drop is similar in magnitude to the share of total jobs lost to the Ketchikan economy from the closure of the pulp mill. (The drop in construction employment happened over a period of several years rather than all at once.) The pattern of response of total employment and population in Anchorage to this economic shock is shown in Figure 20. Using 1995 as a base for indices of employment and population, we see that total employment fell 10 percent over a period of three years but had (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 45 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 18. KETCHIKAN JOBS / MILL $ OF REAL PERSONAL INCOME 45 3.5 2.5 2 1 : A r i . 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 SITKA JOBS / MILL $ OF REAL PERSONAL INCOME 5 45 4 3.5 3 25 2 1 \ 1 . 1 \ 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 4 RETAIL TRADE « SERVICE | EMPKET2.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 46 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 19. ANCHORAGE CONSTRUCTION JOBS] 10 8 o 6 XE L ee 2 9 Lu \ 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 47 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 20. ANCHORAGE ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1985 = 100 110 100 90 80 10 5 : - 7 ; = iz #: = z = 5 z if 5 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 4# POPULATION ~ JOBS JOBS INCLUDES MILITARY AND SELF EMPLOYED} HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 48 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study recovered the 1985 level by 1991. This recovery was assisted and accelerated by the Exxon Valdez oil spill cleanup effort. Population eventually fell by 5 percent from its peak in 1986. It also had recovered its former level by 1991. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 49 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 4. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF KETCHIKAN ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS 4.a. Residential Electric Sales Residential electric sales have risen steadily over time with growth of Ketchikan population and personal income, albeit at a declining rate. The long term upward trend is shown in Figure 21. as well as the annual rate of change in sales. The annual growth rates for 10 year intervals have been as shown in Table 15. sales/customer 3.3% 3.8% | -1% 14% 1.8 % 1.3% | --8% customers 17% Growth has been positive with the exception of two years in the mid 1980! and three of the last four years. The annual change has become more volatile over time so that the years of negative growth have been largely offset by years when sales increased by particularly large amounts. Growth in the number of customers has accounted for the larger share of growth in sales over time except for the early years. As shown in Figure 22. growth in the number of customers was particularly strong in the 1980's, averaging 3.8 percent annually. The rate has since dropped in half to about 1.4 percent annually. In only 3 years since the early 1960' has the annual change been negative, most recently in 1988. The largest annual decline since 1960 has been about 2 percent. The ratio of Ketchikan Public Utility residential electric customers to the population in the Ketchikan Gateway Borough increased steadily during the 1970's and up until 1984. It subsequently declined slightly and now appears to have stabilized at about .37. The growth in this ratio can be attributed to a combination of extension of the service territory of the utility which has given a larger portion of the Borough population access to utility electricity, and a declining trend in average household size over time. The average household size in Ketchikan was 3.26 in 1970, 2.76 in 1980, and 2.7 in 1990. At the present time access to utility electricity extends to most of the population of the Borough and average household size is unlikely to continue trending downward. Thus we would expect the ratio of customers to population to remain at approximately .37 unless the service territory were to expand beyond the current Borough boundary. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 50 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 21. KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SALES 60 i u = = = fa) Zz < n 2 oO < = Nh ra hn Nag a a ae a 60 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SALES ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 15% ae eal UT al ox EMPL LAY Hy 5% - -1o% Ltitititi titi titi 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 51 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study HISTU3.WK4 FIGURE 22. KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC CUSTOMER | 5 A 87 Thousands > YY “7 2 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE sh 5 ft ie | aryh vr a LH 1% t -2% -3% 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS AS PERCENT OF POPULATION 0.45 0.4 oN JW a eI 0.35 < / 03 i i 0.25 ! 0.2 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 52 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Annual residential electric sales per customer increased rapidly during the 1960's from about 6,500 to 9,000 kwh. (Figure 23.) Since then growth has continued but at a slower rate. In the last 5 years annual sales per customer has fluctuated between 10,000 and 11,000 kwh. The change in residential sales per customer is more volatile from year to year than the change in customers because sales per customer is somewhat dependent upon the weather. This is particularly true for the portion of the load that is electric space heating. The share of the Ketchikan Borough housing stock which heated with electricity was 4 percent in 1970 and 5 percent in 1980. However by 1990 it was reported by the US Census to be 15 percent, or 754 units. This would account both for some of the growth in sales per customer since 1980 and the increase in volatility of sales per customer. The presence of electric space heating is also confirmed by the fact that monthly residential sales are sensitive to fluctuations in the number of heating degree days (HDD). Using data from 1994 through 1996 we found that an increase of HDD of 100 in a month would increase residential sales by 255 MWH. In 1994 about 31 percent of sales were accounted for by HDD and although use of other appliances is also sensitive to temperature, this finding is consistent with the information from the Census about the presence of a significant amount of electric space heating among Ketchikan electric utility customers. Residential electricity sales per customer in 3 other utilities are contrasted with Ketchikan in Figure 24. Sitka has considerable higher sales per customer while those of Petersburg have historically been less than Ketchikan. In both cases however there appears to be a stronger positive trend in sales. In contrast the average Chugach Electric customer has annual sales below that of Ketchikan. Much of this difference is probably attributable to differences in the share of electric space heating in the respective service territories. Table 16. shows the trends in the share of space heating that is electric in these and other communities. Those Southeast Alaska communities with access to electricity from hydro power have exhibited a positive trend in the share of space heating that is electric. The share in Sitka is above, and the share in Wrangell- Petersburg below Ketchikan which is consistent with their differences in annual sales per customer. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 53 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT HISTU3.WK4 Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 23. KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SALES/CUST 12 11 ih al A THOUSAND KWH INV g oe Sees eee ee ee 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SALES/CUS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% L l -10% 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 54 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 24. RESIDENTIAL SALES PER CUSTOMER FOR SELECTED UTILITIES oa fick S = i) = oO Pei ee 60 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Oe i > ow WwW a g a Zz < n = Oo = = no + DBD @ —KPU < PETERSBURG & SITKA §& CHUGACH ELECTRIC HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 55 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study CENSUS AREA 1970 1980 1990 KETCHIKAN 4 5 15 SITKA 0 6 25 JUNEAU 1 8 30 WRANGELL- 3 3 8 PETERSBURG PRINCE OF 0 9 rv WALES SKAGWAY-Y-A_ | 4 2 6 HAINES 0 2 3 ANCHORAGE 6 18 14 | MATSU 1 33 12 | 4.b. Commercial Electric Sales This category includes small commercial, large commercial, and industrial sales as reported in the monthly revenue report of Ketchikan Public Utility. It is equivalent to the Commercial category reported by the Alaska Power Authority. Commercial electric sales have risen rapidly over time with the growth in economic activity in the region. The long term upward trend is shown in Figure 25. as well as the annual rate of change in sales. The annual growth rates for 10 year intervals are shown in Table 17. customers sales/customer | 1960-1970 na na 1970-1980 j 2.0 % 1980-1990 | 7.7% 5.1% | 2.5% 1990-1995 | 1.8% -1.2% | 3.1% (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 56 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 285. KPU COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC SALES 90 70 q THOUSAND MWH a o wo o 40 errr SE a lav vr GV Wr 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 KPU COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC SALES ANNUAL GROWTH RATE : Hl x LAL } alll 0% i \ -10% 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 57 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Like residential sales, commercial sales growth has been positive with the exception of one year in the mid-1980' and three of the last four years. The annual change has become more volatile over time so that the years of negative growth have been largely offset by years when sales increased by particularly large amounts. Growth in the number of customers has accounted for the larger share of growth in sales in recent years. As shown in Table 17. and Figure 26. growth in the number of customers was particularly strong in the 1980's, averaging 5.1 percent annually. Since 1990 there has been a slight decline in the number of commercial customers. The ratio of KPU commercial electric customers to employment in the Ketchikan Gateway Borough has fluctuated between .09 and .13 since 1980. Most recently it has been at the lower end of that range. The more rapid growth in customers compared to jobs in the mid 1980's may be attributable to rapid economic growth and the associated growth in the number of small firms. Annual commercial electric sales per customer have been steadily increasing since at least 1970 from about 43,000 to about 80,000 kwh. (Figure 27.) Sales per customer have fluctuated substantially from year to year, possibly partially in response to annual fluctuations in weather patterns. 4.c. Total Electric Sales Total electric sales is the sum of residential, commercial, and a small amount of other sales. In recent years the Other Sales category has been in the range of about 2 thousand MWH, or less than 2 percent of total sales. (Other sales as reported to the Alaska Power Authority in most years has been approximately equal to Harbor Electric Sales reported on the KPU monthly revenue report.) Growth in total sales has been strong, particularly in the 1980's as reflected in the annual growth rates of total sales reported in Table 18. <ETCHI LD KE . ANNUAL G 1960-1970 1970-1980 | 1980-1990 | | 1990-1995 1.3% Figure 28. shows the relative size of each component of electric sales as well as the trend in growth in each component. Since the mid 1980's commercial sales has been increasing more rapidly than residential sales, and commercial sales now constitutes a larger share of total sales than residential. Figure 29. contrasts the number of residential and commercial customers as well as the sales per customer in the two classes. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 58 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 26. KPU COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS 1400 1200 1000 7H 600 a { “400 stasis rele, a 1 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 KPU COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 30% | 10% I 10% | -30% 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 KPU COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC CUSTOMER AS PERCENT OF ALL JOBS 0.13 | 0.12 \ al Vt 0.11 | My ¥ | 0.4 | Th ie 0.09 HL 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 59 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 27. KPU COMMERCIAL SALES/CUST z a Zz <x no > 9° L = 40 ee ee a ee ee ey 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 KPU COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC SALES/CUS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 40% 30% [—--s 20% 10% f a EEECEECL SHR -10% OM ete Nee I see Tete tg 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 60 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 28. KETCHIKAN ELECTRICITY SALES a o x= = = 2 qz 40 no 2 9 < - nN °o 0 Uttaicatinanmiat Jatt 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 — RESIDENTIAL @ COMMERCIAL « OTHER HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 61 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 29. KPU RES & COMM ELECTRIC SALES/CUST 100 80 60 40 g a Z < n = oO L - Be egg et ee ee 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 — RESIDENTIAL... COMMERCIAL 6 yo | 47 Q4 - < =f g - ° — aks: F 2 pl Cech rere ire re red Pvearirel Erera hl erorerad Greentree 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 — RESIDENTIAL... COMMERCIAL HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 62 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 4.d. Generation The growth rate in Net Generation as reported to the Alaska Power Authority is shown in Table 19. to be similar but not equal to the growth rate in sales. Historically sales has been between 85 and 95 percent of net generation and averaged about 88 percent. Net generation not accounted for by sales since 1980 has varied between about 5 and 25 thousand MWH (Figure 30). 1960-1970 5.0 % 1970-1980 3.3% 1980-1990 5.2% 1990-1995 : 2.0 % The difference between sales and net generation reported to the Alaska Power Authority is composed of large industry sales to Ketchikan Pulp Company, line loss (in most years), and unaccounted for use including uncharged accounts and other losses. Large Industry Sales to Ketchikan Pulp Company have varied considerably from year to year based on the needs of the mill. Ketchikan Pulp Company has its own generating capacity which has supplied most of its power requirements and occasionally provided electricity to Ketchikan Public Utilities (KPU) as well. Figure 31. shows that in the early 1980's KPU was sending about 5 thousand MWH annually to Ketchikan Pulp Company and the Ketchikan Spruce Mill sawmill owned by Ketchikan Pulp. At other times during those years Ketchikan Pulp was sending power to KPU and on net KPU was the recipient of electricity. Since the mid 1980's however KPU has been a net seller of electricity to Ketchikan Pulp. Sales have averaged about 6 thousand MWH annually except for two years of high sales when they reached 15 thousand MWH. Unaccounted for is the residual calculated by subtracting residential, commercial and other sales as well as Ketchikan Pulp Mill sales from net generation (adjusted for reported line loss). This category has averaged 3.6 thousand MWH in the 1980's and 6 thousand MWH in the 1990's. A portion of this residual is Uncharged accounts (Code 9) which accounted for about 2.8 thousand MWH in a recent 12 month period. Of this total about 45 percent consisted of “totalizing meters” which duplicate the reading of an aggregation of other meters and thus are redundant. The total uncharged accounts net of these “totalizing meters” was about 1.5 thousand MWH for this period. Gross Generation is the sum of Net Generation plus Distribution loss (line loss) and Station Use. Gross Generation is the total generation requirement of the utility which must be met by a combination of diesel and hydroelectric generation. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 63 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 30, KPU SALES AND GENERATION ‘ AOA 120 KS] CE" 8 oll 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 — SALES — GENERATION ISALES AND GENERATION AS REPORTED TO THE STATE OF ALASKA, DCRA, DIVISION OF ENERGY | KPU : SALES AS A % OF GENERATION 1 _ t I (| aT se fi ll ink & 7 aaeeiiee pL be {| Uf 85% + | i 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 ISALES AND GENERATION AS REPORTED TO THE] STATE OF ALASKA, DCRA, DIVISION OF ENERGY KPU GENERATION MINUS SALES wo Li A Ey if g ALLA 5 JN] y] $1 ia 4 L——— iN 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 IBASED ON SALES AND GENERATION REPORTED TO| STATE OF ALASKA, DCRA, DIVISION OF ENERGY HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 64 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 31. THOUSAND MWH Nn So it a = o an 0 MWH SENT TO INDUSTRIAL USERS] 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 a KETCHIKAN PULP &§ KETCHIKAN SPRUCE MILL THOUSAND MWH 10 8 6 4 2 0 MWH RECEIVED FROM INDUSTRIAL USER] 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 8 KETCHIKAN PULP THOUSAND MWH 20 15 10 5 0 -5 NET MWH TO INDUSTRIAL USERS | 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 ~- KETCHIKAN PULP HISTU3.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 65 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study Line loss has been as high as 7.2 thousand MWH in past years but is currently reported to be averaging about 3 thousand MWH, or about 2 percent of gross generation. In the 1980's line loss was included in net generation as reported to the Alaska Power Authority, but more recently only a portion of line loss has been included in that measure of net generation. Station use has trended upward slowly with growth in gross generation. It now stands at about 3.2 thousand MWH which is about 2 percent of gross generation. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 66 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 5. PROJECTION OF KETCHIKAN ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS 5.a. Summary We project gross electricity generation requirements in Ketchikan to fall with the closure of the Ketchikan Pulp Mill from a high in 1995 of 159 thousand MWH in 1995. Economic recovery will gradually lead to a resumption in the growth of sales and generation requirements. The near term pattern of decline and recovery is shown in three projection cases in the top half of Figure 32. and the detail appears in Table 20. These projections are for generation based on residential, commercial, and other sales but exclude large industrial sales to new customers such as new activities associated with the Pulp Mill site. In the BASE CASE generation drops to 145 thousand MWH in 1998. (Generation is lower in 1997 due to net electricity purchases by Ketchikan Public Utilities from Ketchikan Pulp but these end in 1998.) Recovery brings generation back to the 1995 level by 2007. Subsequent growth is at the annual rate of about 1.1 percent annually. The longer term growth pattern is shown in the bottom of Figure 32. In the HIGH CASE generation also bottoms out in 1998, but at the slightly higher level of 147 MWH. The subsequent growth in generation is more rapid so that by 2002 generation has regained the 1995 level. From that time forward the annual growth rate is 2.4 percent. In the LOW CASE generation declines until 2000 and bottoms out at 142 thousand MWH. After that growth resumes, but at a low rate so that the 1995 level of generation is not attained again until the year 2017. 5.b. Residential Sales Residential sales, which account for about 35 percent of gross generation, is projected to decline very little as a result of the economic slowdown. This is shown in Figure 33. for both the near term and the longer term. We project residential sales by separately projecting the number of residential customers and the annual use per residential customer. We assume that the number of residential customers, which is normally correlated with the number of households in the service territory, will be correlated with the size of the housing stock during periods of economic contraction. Unless a housing unit is abandoned each residence will continue to have an electric hookup whether or not it is occupied. Thus a decline in the population will increase the vacancy rate of the housing stock but will not result in a proportional decline in the number of residential customers. This was the case in South central Alaska during the recession of the mid 1980's and has also been true in Sitka in the early 1990s. Figure 34. compares the index of population and residential customers for Chugach Electric, Anchorage Municipal Light and Power, and Matanuska Electric Association in the mid 1980's using 1985 as the base, and Sitka using 1993 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 67 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT FIGURE 32. Electric Load Growth Study KPU ELECTRIC GENERATION| 180 oa = 160 s 9 H Z 140 n =] 2 = 120 wd Fra el clr Pr [LP ra DP 1985 1990 41995 2000 2005 gwHISTORY «BASE «HIGH GLOW KPU ELECTRIC GENERATION| 300 250 z S 200 g Z 150 3 wn 3 400 F 55 | ry ro brad Lr ere Iara en I 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 HISTORY «BASE «£HIGH LOW HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 68 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study TABLE 20. (part 1.) KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES PROJECTIONS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION (MWH) GENERATION GENERATION RESIDENTIAL SALES NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES NET GROSS AND UNACCOUNTED FOR HIST BASE HIGH Low HIST BASE HIGH Low HIST BASE HIGH Low 1970 61,121 27,128 1971 63,252 29,246 1972 66,086 30,797 1973 68,709 30,958 1974 68,171 NA 1975 NA 32,838 1976 NA 35,059 1977 NA 35,082 1978 NA 36,754 1979 NA 37,462 1980 84,227 39,135 42,423 1981 86,077 42,834 4u771 1982 96,052 43,164 50,505 1983 97,096 44,961 49,040 1984 107,966 51,292 48,867 1985 113,487 49,236 53,434 1986 105,499 46,795 54,475 1987 111,501 46,904 55,325 1988 134,953 49,269 63,872 1989 129,190 52,812 65,691 1990 139,443 $4,115 70,304 1991 142,387 56,031 74,080 1992 149,757 $4,277 73,371 1993 138,643 53,188 79,262 1994 150,794 58,594 84,005 1995 154.232 159,008 159,008 __ 159,008 $5,472 $5.472___—S5A72_—‘§5,472 89,380 89,380 89,380_—89,380 “1996 —~CS~S«SS2BT—~«'1S8.2BT ~—«*158:2BT=SC*~*~<“‘_C;éC™C#C‘*S‘WGA*~~#«=SO.2G4~~~=50264. + ++ 89,169 89,169 69,169" 1997 139,039 139,039 139,039 56,560 56,560__—56,560 85.230 85,230_——85.230 1998 145,242 —146,703_——*144,948 55,440 36,000 56,000 64.215 85,060 83,373 1999 145,425 148,176 143,174 56,000 56,840 55,440 83,832 85,637 82.227 2000 146,584 152.191 142,453 56,560 58,834 ‘55.440 84,387 —-87,504_—81,534 2007 148,430 156,795 142,490 57,120 60,310 35,440 85,602 90,454 Oo 2002 150.921 161.479 142,849 58.257 61,824 $5,440 86,860 93.444 81,914 2003 152,733 165,912 143,269 $8,839 63,376 $5,440 88,019 96.155 82,318 2004 154,478 170,150 144,391 59.428 64,967 $6,000 89,108 98,639 «82,837 2005 156,243 174,373 145,517 6002266597 __—_— 56,560 90,212 101,069 83,360 2006 158,030 178,705 146,646 60,622 68,269 57,120 97,329 103,563 83,686 2007 159,838 183,149 148,079 61,228 69,982 57,968 92,462 106,122 84,415 2008 161,668 187,708 148,935 61,841 71,739 $8,258 93,609 108,750 4,948 2009 163,520 192,385 149,796 62.459 73,540 $8,550 94,772 111,448 85,485 2010 165,395 197,183 150,662 63,084 75,385 $8,842 95.950 114.214 86.025 2011 167,292 202,106 151,533 63,715 77,278 $9,136 97,143 117,055 66,568 2012 169,212 207,155 152,410 64,352 79,217 $9,432 98,352 119,970 87,116 2013 171,156 212,335 153,292 64,995 81,206 $9,729 99,578 122,983 87,666 2014 173,123 217,650 154,179 65,645 83,244 60,028 100,819 126,035 88,221 2015 175,113 223,101__155,071 66,302 85,333_—_—60,328 102,077 129.187 ___—-88.779 2016 177,128 226,694 ‘155,969 66,965 87,475 60,630 103,351 132,423 69,341 2017 179,167 234,432 156,873 67,634 89,671 60,933 104,642 135,745 89,906 2018 181,231 240,319 157,782 68.311 91,922 «61,238 105,950 139,154 90,476 2019 183,320 246,358 158,696 94,229 61,544 107,276 142,653 91,049 2020 185,435 252,553 159,616 96,594 61,851 108,619 146,245 91,626 2027 187,574 258,909 160,542 99,018 62,161 109,975 ‘149,932_——*92.208° 2022 189,740 265,429 161,473 101,504 62,472 111,358 153,716 92,791 2023 191,932 272,119 162,410 104,052 62,784 112,755 157,601 93,379 2024 194,151 278.981 163,352 106,663 63,098 114,170 161,588 —-93,972 2025 196,396 286,022 164,301 109,341 63,413 115,604 165,680 94,568 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES 1970-1980 3.3% 37% : 1980-1990 5.2% 3.3% 5.2% 1990-1995 2.0% 0.5% 4.9% 1995-2000 1.6% 0.9% 2.2% 04% 1.2% 0.0% AA% 04% 1.8% 2000-2005 1.3% 2.8% 04% 1.2% 25% 04% 1.3% 29% 04% 2005-2010 11% 2.5% 07% 1.0% 2.5% 08% 1.2% 25% 06% 2010-2025 1.2% 2.5% 0.6% 1.0% 2.5% 05% 1.3% 25% 0.6% GENERATION PROJECTION CONSISTENT WITH SYSTEM GROSS GENERATION FROM GENERATION AND DISTRIBUTION REPORT OF KPU. HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 69 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study TABLE 20. (part 2.) KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES PROJECTIONS OF ECONOMIC VARIABLES TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (INCLUDES SELF EMPLOYED & MILITARY) POPULATION HIST BASE HIGH Low HIST HIGH Low 1970 0 10,200 1971 0 10,200 1972 0 10,300 1973 ° 10,500 1974 0 10,700 1975 0 10,900 1976 0 11,200 1977 O 11,400 1978 0 11,600 1979 ° 11,800 1980 7,048 11,316 1981 6,824 12,042 1982 7,103 12,268 1983 7,322 12,459 1984 7.214 12,438 1985 7,663 12,623 1986 8,128 12,729 1987 8,880 12,793 1988 9,372 12,594 1989 9,680 13,259 1990 10,397 13,828 1991 9,892 14,261 1992 9.874 14,536 1993 10,258 14,535 1994 10,419 14,638 1995 10,733 10,733 10,733 10,733 14,771 14,771 14,771 14,771 1996 10,600 10,600 10,600 14,701 14,701 14,701 1997 10,109 10,109 10,109 14,360 14,360 14,360 1998 9,894 9,919 9,719 14,210 14,228 14,089 1999 9,885 10,020 9,666 14,204 14,512 14,053 2000 10,009 10,335 9,504 14,346 14,803 13,941 2001 10,117 10,693 9,508 14,490 15,099 14,010 2002 10,228 10,953 9,538 14,635 15,401 14,080 2003 10,330 11,187 9,575 14,781 15,709 14,151 2004 10,425 11,399 9,621 14,929 16,023 14,221 2005 10,522 11,606 9.668 15,078 16,343 14,293 2006 10,619 11,817 9714 15,229 16,670 14,364 2007 10,718 12,032 9,761 15,381 17,004 14,436 2008 10,817 12,252 9,809 15,535 17,344 14,508 2009 10,918 12,475 9,856 15,690 17,690 14,581 2010 11,019 12,704 9,904 15,847 18,044 14,653 2011 11,121 12,937 9,952 16,006 18,405 14,727 2012 11,225 13,174 10,000 16,166 18,773 14,800 2013 11,329 13,416 10,049 16,327 19,149 14,874 2014 11,435 13,663 10,098 16,491 19,532 14,949 2015 11,542 13,915 10,147 16,655 19,922 15,023 2016 11,649 14,173 10,196 16,822 20,321 15,099 2017 11,758 14,435 10,245 16,990 20,727 15,174 2018 11,868 14,702 10,295. 17,160 21,142 15,250 2019 11,979 14,975 10,345 17,332 21,565 15,326 2020 12,091 15,253 10,395 17,505 21,996 15,403 2021 12,204 15,537 10,446 17,680 22,436 15,480 2022 12,318 15,827 10,496 17,857 22,884 15,557 2023 12434 16,122 10,547 18,035 23,342 15,635 2024 12,550 16,423 10,599 18,216 23,809 15.713 2025 12,668 16,730 10,650 18,398 24,285 15,792 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES: 1970-1980 ERR 1.0% 1980-1990 4.0% 2.0% 1990-1995 0.6% 1.3% 1995-2000 “14% 08% 24% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% 2000-2005 1.0% 2.3% 0.3% 1.0% 2.0% 05% 2005-2010 09% 18% OS% 1.0% 2.0% 05% 2010-2025 0.9% 19% 05% 1.0% 2.0% 0.5% HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 70 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 33. KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SALES| 70 x 65 = 5 60 4 < get 2 55 aa 3 ett oie F 50 45 peer SY | ee ll peg ere 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 wa HISTORY «BASE #& HIGH BLOW KPU RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SALES| 120 x 100 = = 80 a < 2 60 ie fe) pu F 40 a ] 29 bette ttt 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 wm HISTORY @BASE «HIGH SLOW HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 71 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 34. SOUTHCENTRAL UTILITIES POPULATION & CUSTOMERS Ss 110 Zz tags oA 95 nant 1 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 SITKA ELECTRIC UTILITY POPULATION & CUSTOMERS 106 104 en 102 100 #1 1993 = 100 98 96 1993 1994 1995 48 POPULATION -« CUSTOMERS HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 72 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study as the base. In both cases population dropped off, in South central after 1985 and in Sitka after 1993, but in both cases the number of residential customers actually increased. We assume that the number of customers will remain constant at the current (1997) level until population regains the 1995 level. From that time forward we project that the number of customers will grow at the same rate as the population. The relationship between the number of customers and population in the BASE CASE is shown in Figure 35. A similar relationship exists in the HIGH CASE and the LOW CASE. We assume that residential use per customer remains constant in the long run in the BASE CASE and the LOW CASE. This is consistent with the past history for the utility and the assumption of no increase in the share of the housing stock using electric space heat. In the HIGH CASE we assume that an increase in the popularity of electric space heating results in an increase in electric use per customer over time at a rate of .5 percent annually. Using this assumption use per customer in the HIGH CASE grows from a base of 10,300 kwh per year to 11,668 kwh per year by the end of the projection period in 2025. This higher level of electricity use per customer would still be below the present level of Sitka which is over 12, 500 kwh. Since the electric space heat share of the housing stock in Sitka in 1990 was 25 percent compared to 15 percent for Ketchikan, this assumption is consistent with a modest expansion of electric space heating use in the Ketchikan housing stock. The value of 10,300 kwh is our estimate of the average annual residential customer use in anormal weather year, based on heating degree days. Using a regression of monthly consumption per customer against heating degree days we can estimate the weather adjusted annual average consumption per customer for years when heating degree days were above or below average. Adjusting for heating degree days, the average annual residential customer sales was 10,300 in 1995 and 1996. (In 1994 it was actually somewhat higher at 11,000.) In the near term we expect average residential consumption to be somewhat less than the heating degree day normalized value of 10,300 because of the increase in the vacancy rate for the housing stock in response to the population decline. We assume the average residential consumption will decline in the near term by about 5 percent to 9,900 kwh in response to an increase in the vacancy rate of the housing stock. The average residential consumption will gradually increase as the excess housing stock fills in, and when the number of residential customers begins to grow, reflecting an increase in the housing stock and return to a normal vacancy rate, the average residential consumption level increases and stabilizes at 10,300 kwh. Figure 36. shows that there was a drop in average sales per residential customer in South central Alaska in the wake of the recession of the mid 1980s, but that was partially due to the underlying trend away from electric space heating in that region. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 73 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 35. 1997 = 100 108 106 104 102 100 98 PROJECTED BASE CASE KETCHIKAN POPULATION AND RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS 1 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 4a POPULATION « CUSTOMERS HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 74 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 36. CHUGACH ELECTRIC SALES PER CUSTOMER 1985 = 100 130 110 be ail 90 80 1 1 1 L 1 1 1 L 1 ie a 1 4 1 i 1 1 1 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 4a RESIDENTIAL -@ COMMERCIAL HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 75 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 5.c. Non-Residential (Commercial and Other) Sales and Unaccounted for Use We combine commercial and other (non-residential) sales with unaccounted for generation for projection purposes. Commercial sales dominate this aggregate category. In 1995 commercial sales were 77 thousand MWH, other sales were 2 thousand MWH, and unaccounted for generation (including uncharged accounts) was 10 thousand MWH. Consequently we projected this category as though it were all determined by the factors influencing commercial sales. Projected nonresidential sales (commercial and other) is shown in Figure 37. Historically neither the number of commercial customers nor commercial sales per customer has been closely correlated with growth in economic indicators such as employment or total real income. As was pointed out in section 4., the ratio of the number of customers to employment increased during the 1980's but since then has declined. The average consumption per customer was relatively stable at about 50 thousand kwh per year during the 1980's but since 1988 has grown rapidly and is now closer to 80 thousand kwh per year. We assume that the relationship between the level of employment and the number of commercial customers will not change in the future, and also that sales per customer will not continue its recent pattern of rapid growth since the slowdown in the economy means that there will be fewer new businesses in the future to change the average consumption rate and existing customers will be less likely to make large changes in their use patterns. We project consumption in this category based on a regression using non-timber employment as the explanatory variable. This formulation is based on the assumption that the direct effect of timber employment on commercial consumption is small since the primary timber industry employers are not significant purchasers of electricity from the utility. Changes in sales of commercial electricity are thus related to changes in employment, which serves as a proxy for changes in the number of businesses serving the community. The effect of a reduction in timber industry activity will still influence electricity sales in this model, but the influence will indirectly operate through reductions in employment at those businesses that support the timber industry. The results of the regression equation can be summarized in the elasticity of non- residential sales and unaccounted for use to non-timber employment which is calculated to be 1.33 for the period from 1980 to the present. This means that a 1 percent increase in non-timber employment will increase non-residential use by 1.33 percent. One important implication of this formulation of non-residential use is that consumption in the near term will not decline much in spite of a drop in employment associated with the closure of the Ketchikan Pulp Mill. A large part of the drop in employment will occur in the timber industry which makes up a small share of commercial sales of utility electricity. The second part of the drop in employment will occur in support sectors of the economy where the dependence on the timber economy varies by firm. Many firms will lose business, but many will remain in business and have a continuing demand for electricity. In some instances electricity consumption will be influenced by the level of sales, while in other cases consumption will be basically independent of the level of sales over a broad range of sales levels. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 76 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 37. KPU NON-RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SALES| 120 ae = 100 = a Z 80 SeeeH ao =) e = 60 49 Lt td 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 mw HISTORY « BASE ’& HIGH BLOW KPU NON-RESIDENTAL ELECTRIC SALES] 200 x = 150 = g < 100 7) =) 2 - 50 Q Ldeeecbisrtrrrtir derbi te tert te 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 m HISTORY @ BASE & HIGH SLOW HISTU4.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 77 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study The experience of commercial sales of the South central Alaska utilities in this regard is instructive. Figure 38. shows the index of commercial customers, sales per customer, and total commercial sales for South central utilities using 1985 as the base year. For all three utilities-- Chugach Electric, Anchorage Municipal Light and Power, and Matanuska Electric--the index of customers increased after 1985 in spite of the drop in employment of about 10 percent between 1985 and the bottom of the recession two years later. In spite of a drop in commercial sales per customer from 1995 the total commercial sales index for each utility barely fell below 100 even in the depths of the recession. The decline in commercial sales per customer for the South central utilities after the recession is partly attributable to the effects of the recession on business activity, but it also partly due to the trend away from electric space heating which is so clearly evident in the residential sector for these utilities. Data on electric space heat in the commercial sector does not exist for this period but we may assume that it was declining in the commercial sector just as it was in the residential sector. Figure 38. also shows that the decline in commercial sales per customer was reversed by the early 1990's and thereafter sales per customer have been increasing, particularly in those portions of the market that are growing the most rapidly. This is particularly interesting when contrasted with the Anchorage wage and per capita income indexes. Figure 39. shows that the index of the real wage rate in Anchorage has been slowly trending downward from a peak in 1983 at the height of the petro dollar boom. Between 1983 and 1994 the average real wage has lost about 10 percent in value. We would expect to see the same erosion in the real wage rate in Ketchikan after the closure of the pulp mill and reduction of the timber industry employment. However during the same time period Anchorage real per capita income has been slowly increasing and now stands just above its level at the height of the boom in 1983. The combination of growth in non-wage income and higher labor force participation have maintained purchasing power as reflected in per capita income in spite of the loss of wage income. The strength of per capita income offers a partial explanation for the continued expansion of commercial electricity customers and sales at the same time that the real average wage has been declining. For projecting commercial sales, other sales, and unaccounted for use we split the total projection of these aggregated categories based on their historical percentages of the total. Thus unaccounted for use is projected to be about 8 percent of the total and non-residential sales 92 percent. Of non-residential sales about 96 percent is commercial and 4 percent is other. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 29, 1998/DRAFT Page 78 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 38. SOUTHCENTRAL UTILITIES COMMERCIAL CUSTOMER INDEX 140 1985 = 100 s ee 40 os ae re fiscal ot, 4 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1998 SOUTHCENTRAL UTILITIES COMMERCIAL SALES PER CUSTOMER INDEX 120 A é 1980 1962 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1998 @ CEA <©AMLP «MEA SOUTHCENTRAL UTILITIES ‘TOTAL COMMERCIAL SALES INDEX 120 4 8 1985 = 100 140 100 ae ar 40 4. 1980 1982 1084 1986 1988 1990 1902 1904 1906 m@ CEA <AMLP «MEA | 1985 = 100 8 HISTU4. WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 79 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study FIGURE 39. 1985 = 100 110 105 100 95 90 85 ANCHORAGE REAL WAGE & INCOME INDEX, WITH 1985 = 100 vA ee, jt 1 n 1 ct ee a 1 1 1 1 1 80 85 90 95 4a REAL WAGE REAL PER CAPITA INCOME | PIKETPOW.WK4 (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 80 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 5.d. Large Industrial Use In the past Ketchikan Public Utility (KPU) sold electricity to Ketchikan Pulp Mill to supplement their own generation capacity. With the closure of the mill those sales ended and in 1997 the mill actually made net sales to KPU. A sawmill at the mill site is still in operation requiring considerable electricity and at this time indications are that the mill will shortly stop generating its own power and request electricity to run the sawmill from KPU. If KPU were to supply the all the electricity to run the sawmill annual sales could range from | to 3 thousand MWH depending upon the production level and the number of shifts that the sawmill would operate. Because of uncertainty regarding both the timing and the production level from the sawmill, we have not included this potential sale of electricity in the projections. Another reason for not including this sale in the projections is that the addition of other activities at the pulp mill site besides the sawmill operation could make it economical for the operations at the pulp mill site to return to self generation. Several other operations are currently under consideration for the pulp mill site including a veneer plant, a fish waste conversion plant, and an ethanol conversion plant. If one or more of these activities or other activities based upon the timber resource were to proceed the scale of operations and the availability of waste timber might be such that it would make sense to self generate electricity on site. However it is also possible that it would be advantageous to purchase electricity from the utility. A veneer plant for example could add 1 or 2 thousand MWH of sales to the utility dependent upon the scale of operation of the facility. A fish waste plant could add 2 to 3 thousand MWH or sales. It is also possible that new facilities at the pulp mill site could result in the self generation of electricity surplus to their own needs and create a source of supply for KPU, albeit without the certainty and reliability of utility owned generating capacity. At this time we cannot project what additional electric sales KPU might make based on potential developments at the pulp mill site and consequently we do not include any in the projections. If the site is successfully redeveloped sales could be significant, but for planning purposes these sales should not be included in the projections. Two other identifiable new developments could potentially impact utility electricity sales in the near future. The first is the expansion of the Ketchikan Shipyard which if successful could add between 2 thousand and 3 thousand MWH to annual commercial sales over the next 5 years. The other is the establishment of a new sawmill on Gravina Island about 3 miles from the airport. This sawmill will generate its own electricity since the utility transmission lines do not extent to the site, however if it had access to utility electricity its annual purchases could be between 2 thousand and 3 thousand MWH. We do not include either of these developments in the projections of sales. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 81 Ketchikan Public Utilities DRAFT Electric Load Growth Study 5. e. Review of Large Users As part of this analysis we reviewed the sales of the largest commercial customers of Ketchikan Public Utilities and contacted them to inquire about future plans that might influence the level of electricity they purchase from the utility. Table 21. shows the concentration of sales among the largest customers in the large commercial class and industrial class (this excludes sales to the Ketchikan Pulp Mill). In the most recent year, 1996, we see that the 18 largest customers in those classes which contained 117 total customers, accounted for 29 thousand MWH or nearly 2/3 of all sales. Of the largest customers 5 were in the seafood industry accounting for 8.6 thousand MWH. Government agencies accounted for 8 of the largest customers and retail and service businesses accounted for the remaining 5. There were no timber related businesses in the list. The same pattern appears in earlier years. The level of sales to the largest seafood processors has been quite stable over the last 6 years. Government agencies accounted for the majority of the largest customers each year and retail and service businesses comprised the remainder. One timber related business was on the list in 1993 through 1995 before it ceased operations. Most of the large customers that we contacted indicated that they had no plans in the near future that would result in a significant change in their electricity requirements from the utility. Furthermore they generally indicated that their planning horizon was relatively short. None of the customers thought that their electricity needs would be declining in the future. Four large customers mentioned potential increases in their electricity requirements. As already noted above, the Ketchikan Shipyard could double its current annual use over the next 5 years if its expansion plans are attained. The Cape Fox (Westmark) Hotel is adding 22 rooms to its existing 72 in 1988 and this will result in an increase in electricity use. The US Coast Guard will be stationing a new cutter with a crew of 75 in Ketchikan next year and a larger buoy tender will replace the existing tender the.following year. These ships might require electricity when in port. The US Navy Southeast Alaska Acoustic Measuring Facility is considering providing shore power to the submarines that it tests. We anticipate that some of these increases in electricity use, in addition to the Cape Fox expansion, will take place and that other new users whom we cannot anticipate will also add to growth in commercial sales. We assume that this growth in sales is captured in the equation we use to project non-residential (commercial and other) sales and unaccounted for use. 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Distribution Loss In all CASES we assume that distribution loss is a constant 2 percent of net generation. 5.g. Utility Use In all CASES we assume that utility use is a constant 2 percent of net generation. (KETCHLOAD.wpd) January 28, 1998/DRAFT Page 84 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX A HISTORICAL ECONOMIC DATA EMPLOYMENT KETCHIKAN 1980 POPULATION 11,316 EMPLOYMENT 7,048 Wage and Salary Jobs 5,841 Mining NA Construction 392 Manufacturing 1,239 Transp/CommurVUtil 627 Wholesale Trade 114 Retail Trade 856 Firvinsur/R Estate 229 Services 872 Federal Goverment 359 ‘State Government 431 Local Government 695 Military 203 Proprietors (Self Employed) 1,004 PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) $179.1 Net Eamings by Residence $145.2 Dividends / Interest / Rent $18.7 Transfer Payments $15.3 REAL PERSONAL INCOME (96$) $295.6 RATIO OF JOBS TO PERSONAL INCOME Trade 2.89 Services 2.95 Local Govt 2.35 RATIO OF POPULATION TO JOBS = 1.61 ITEM : EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES Manufacturing 1,239 Infrastructure 1,019 Trade 969 Service/Finance 1,101 Fed Govt 562 State/Local 1,125 Proprietors 1,004 Sum of Categories 7,019 BASIC 2,926 SUPPORT 2,070 EMPKET2.WK4 B JESSRSABERE 8 $1826 $142.8 $21.5 $18.2 $279.8 3.21 3.38 277 1.76 1,181 1.221 6.775 2,704 2,161 1982 12,268 7,103 5.714 NA 270 973 499 96 965 212 1,036 342 531 768 215 1,174 $207.9 $154.7 $25.6 $27.7 $301.5 3.20 3.44 2.55 1.73 973 768 1,061 1,248 SST 1,299 1,174 7,080 2,829 1983 12,459 7,322 6,024 NA 424 822 488 192 997 202 1,094 309 561 896 182 1,116 $230.6 $171.9 $29.8 $29.0 $332.1 3.00 3.30 2.70 1.70 912 1,189 1,296 491 1,487 1,116 7,282 2.769 2,485 1984 12,438 7,214 210 1,146 313 919 163 1,328 $230.7 $171.4 $34.0 $25.3 $319.3 2.95 3.59 2.88 1.72 1985 12,623 7,663 5.971 NA 36 937 441 138 975 216 1,129 945 182 1,540 $254.0 $187.0 $36.7 $30.2 $341.8 2.85 3.30 27 1.65 937 1,113 1,345 1,487 1,540 7,633 2,858 12,729 8,128 6,158 NA 268 1,197 509 142 963 231 1,108 269 556 872 2u1 1,759 $270.5 $200.3 $38.1 $32.1 $357.6 2.69 3.10 244 1.57 1987 12,793 8,880 6,434 NA 66 1,282 584 154 979 230 1,121 262 510 910 276 2,170 $279.7 $205.6 $39.8 $34.3 $369.2 2.65 3.04 2.46 1.44 1,282 1,132 1,351 1,419 2,170 8,843 3.239 2,484 1988 12,594 9,372 6,852 0 375 1,378 675 177 1,048 209 1,265 251 $23 921 205 2,315 $204.9 $216.9 $40.6 S74 $387.7 2.70 3.26 237 1.34 1,378 1,049 1,225 1,475 456 1,444 2,315 9,341 3,278 2,700 1989 13,259 9,680 7,188 NA 299 1,668 590 212 1,093 243 1,302 273 535 945 ait 2,281 $323.6 $237.8 $44.0 $41.8 $413.9 1990 13,828 10,397 2 & BERRBENBESER 2.316 1,936 1,438 1,672 476 1,541 2,316 10,365 3,952 3,109 1991 14,261 9,892 2.66 2.85 20 144 1,657 971 1,367 1,509 1,513 2,321 3,658 2,875 1992 14,636 9,874 7418 NA ws 1,451 822 239 1,188 1 8 S888R 2.79 2.89 2.30 1.47 1,451 1,130 1,427 516 1,543 2,260 9,815 3,510 2915 1993 14,535 10,258 7,582 NA 421 1,496 798 213 1,221 273 1,236 322 561 976 222 2,454 $405.2 $296.6 $51.7 $57.0 $437.2 279 2.83 1.42 1994 14,638 10,419 7,733 NA 370 1,822 753 236 1,318 231 1,333 309 560 943 189 2,497 416.6 $301.6 $56.5 $58.4 $440.1 299 3.03 214 1.40 1,522 1,123 1,554 1,624 1,503 2,497 10,321 3,523 3,178 14,771 10,733 7,981 1 432 1,507 770 224 1,402 319 1,445 wo S67 916 212 2,540 $4388 $319.1 $57.6 $62.1 $451.1 1996 14,701 7,894 m1 1,329 1,293 1,427 576 191 14,599 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1997 80-85 85-90 90-95 80-95 22% 1.7% 0.4% NA 3.1% 5.4% 6.8% 4.0% 27% AA 5.3% ATH 4.7% 64% 5.6% 8.9% 7.2% 5.2% 14.5% 14.6% 3.0% 0.3% 2.3% 3.3% 0.5% 5.4% 5.3% 28% 4.1% 5.1% 5.7% 8.9% 1.7% 1.8% 6.3% 5.7% NA 1.0% 15.6% 8.6% 14.4% 3.7% 6.1% 41% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 43% 85% 75% 7.1% 5.8% 84% 5.1% 1.4% 1.0% 3.7% 42% 15.6% 49% 5.2% 44% 1.9% 0.7% 85% 6.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% NA 62% 49% 29% 37% 3.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.8% 24% 1.9% 3.8% 3.3% 3.4% 6.6% 0.6% 3.2% 0.4% 24% 0.7% 49% 4.0% 25% 1.1% 15% 0.8% 1.9% 0.5% 1.8% 28% 21% NA 06% 1.3% 1.4% 46% 3.3% 2.2% 34% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.3% 6.4% 6.2% 5.4% 7.8% 9.8% 29% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 3.5% 06% 1.9% 6.4% 2.8% PRINCE OF WALES 1980 OUTER KETCHIKAN POPULATION 3,822 EMPLOYMENT 1,404 Wage and Salary Jobs 1,278 Mining NA Construction 18 Manufacturing 534 Transp/Commun/Util 87 Wholesale Trade NA Retail Trade 67 Fir/insur/R Estate 17 Services 53 Federal Government 54 State Government 15 Local Government 412 Military 0 Proprietors (Self Employed) 126 PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) $44.0 Net Eamings by Residence $36.6 Dividends / Interest / Rent $1.8 Transfer Payments $5.6 REAL PERSONAL INCOME (986$) $72.67 RATIO OF JOBS TO PERSONAL INCOME Trade 0.92 Services 0.72 Local Govt 5.66 RATIO OF POPULATION TO JOBS) =—.2.72 ITEM : EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES Manufacturing 534 Infrastructure 104 Trade NA Service/Finance 70 Fed Govt 51 State/Local 427 Proprietors 126 ‘Sum of Categories NA EMPKET2.WK4 1981 4,204 1,624 1,502 17 572 101 103 uM 76 62 2 477 122 $50.1 ‘$40.7 $2.5 $6.9 ‘$76.81 1.33 0.99 6.20 2.59 572 47 107 62 497 122 NA 1982 4,439 1,661 1,510 NA NA 589 NA 102 37 67 mn 24 452 0 151 $56.4 $43.8 $3.0 $9.6 $81.72 1.25 0.82 5.52 2.67 104 1 476 151 NA 1983 a8 a 8 Bo Buasesgesae Bey. es $10.7 $89.70 1.32 1.06 5.07 2.85 554 NA NA 163 85 479 149 NA 1984 yeaaseehees 8 2 a $52.2 $4.3 $9.7 $91.56 1.64 4.14 5.63 2.60 634 87 NA 150 86 ‘541 238 NA 1985 5,143 2,150 1,818 NA 49 827 158 110 1 Ko) $72.41 354.4 348 $12.9 ‘$97.00 142 NA 160 111 685 332 NA 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 5,225 5,392 5,770 5,876 6,278 6,554 2,278 «62,264 2,514 2,638 92,754 2,792 1,844 1,697 2,005 2,133 2,231 2,239 NA NA NA NA NA NA 45 28 1 96 NA 51 647 515 750 656 724 662 84 LJ 100 189 196 216 NA NA NA NA 14 NA 166 190 207 238 242 254 45 39 40 49 64 52 120 132 138 166 188 238 114 110 110 123 123 129 0 29 uM uM 32 “4 574 545 541 567 557 589 0 0 0 0 0 ° 434 567 $09 505 523 553 $78.5 $788 $86.0 $905 $1128 $109.1 $57.8 $58.1 $63.6 $726 $813 $78.0 $6.4 37.1 $7.6 $9.9 $128 $106 $143 $13.7 $148 $17.0 $187 $20.5 $103.83 $104.00 $113.03 $127.25 $135.68 $125.44 1.60 1.82 1.83 1.87 1.79 2.02 1.15 1.27 1.22 1.34 1.38 1.89 5.53 5.24 4.78 4.46 411 4.70 2.29 2.38 2.30 223 2.28 2.35 647 515 750 656 724 662 129 124 174 285 NA 267 NA NA NA NA 257 NA 164 172 179 216 252 289 114 110 110 123 123 129 604 574 572 601 589 623 434 567 509 505 $23 553 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1992 1993 6,566 6,707 2,718 2,804 2,132 2,094 NA 0 50 ST 588 441 171 183 18 NA 264 283 62 66 196 244 134 137 7 28 613 638 0 0 586 710 $110.3 $116.9 $78.5 $81.1 $94 $10.4 $223 $24.4 $122.65 $124.98 2.15 2.26 1.60 1.95 4.99 5.10 242 2.39 588 441 221 239 282 NA 258 310 134 137 649 666 586 710 2717 NA 1994 = 1996 6,728 6,750 2771 2,884 2,109 2,208 0 1 73 89 478 571 195 171 NA 14 4 295 55 50 207 214 131 120 2 27 611 640 0 0 662 676 $116.2 $123.0 $80.7 $87.0 $10.0 $10.4 $25.5 $25.7 $122.73 $126.49 248 2.33 1.69 1.69 498 = 5.06 243 234 478 571 267 261 NA 309 262 264 131 120 640 667 662 676 NA 2,868 1996 7,010 712 6,876 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 80-85 86-90 90-95 80-95 6.1% 41% 15% 3.9% 89% 5.1% 0.9% 4.9% 7.3% NA 23.0% 0.3% 1.3% NA 18.8% 23.7% 15.9% 16.9% 15.2% 9.7% ERR 21.4% 4.2% NA NA 6.6% 16.2% NA 8.9% 5.0% 11.3% 2.1% 0.3% 3.2% ERR 9.5% 0.2% 37% NA 11.5% 0.4% 46% NA 10.4% 74% 9.8% 5.9% 3.8% 3.0% 4.6% 27% 0.0% 4.0% ATH 27% 0.5% 3.3% 28% ERR 5.3% ERR 11.9% 10.4% 83% 8.4% 21.0% 22.0% 18.0% 7.7% 9.4% 1.7% 1.4% 4.2% 6.6% TA% 5.9% 12.2% 10.6% 5.9% 6.9% “1.4% 3.8% 12.1% 9.4% 3.5% 1.8% 41% 9.4% 5.5% 41% 43% 6.4% 5.8% 0.7% 26% -1.0% 0.5% -1.0% 0.3% 6.4% 6.6% 46% 04% 6.3% 3.8% 1.0% 0.5% 9.9% -3.0% 25% 3.0% 21.4% 9.5% 5.3% 11.9% NA NA NA NA NA 9.5% 21% 18.0% 16.9% 9.3% 5.9% GREATER KETCHIKAN 1980 ECONOMIC REGION POPULATION 15,138 EMPLOYMENT 8,452 Wage and Salary Jobs 7,419 Mining NA Construction 410 Manufacturing 1,773 Transp/CommurVUtil 713 Wholesale Trade NA Retail Trade 923 Firvinsur/R Estate 246 Services 925 Federal Government 410 State Government 446 Local Government 1,106 Military 203 Proprietors (Sef Employed) 1,130 PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) $223.2 Net Eamings by Residence $181.7 Dividends / Interest / Rent $20.5 Transfer Payments $20.9 REAL PERSONAL INCOME (96$) $368.2 RATIO OF JOBS TO PERSONAL INCOME Trade 251 Services 2.51 Local Govt 3.00 RATIO OF POPULATION TO JOBE = 1.79 ITEM : EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES Manufacturing 1,773 Infrestructure 1,123 Trade NA Service/Finance 1471 Fed Got 613 State/Local 1,552 Proprietors. 1,130 ‘Sum of Categories NA EMPKET2.WK4 1981 16,246 8,448 7,400 NA 275 1,530 730 NA 1,002 265 1,024 382 466 1,253 204 1,144 $232.7 $183.5 $24.0 $25.2 $356.6 2.81 2.87 3.51 1.92 1,530 1,005 1,288 1,718 1,144 NA 1982 16,707 8,784 7,224 NA NA 1,562 879 NA 1,067 249 1,103 413 556 1,220 215 1,325 $264.3 $198.5 $28.6 $37.2 $383.2 2.78 2.88 3.18 1.91 1,562 NA NA 1,352 628 1,775 1,325 NA 1983 17,281 9,015 $219.9 $39.7 $421.8 2.64 2.82 3.20 1.92 1,375 1,459 576 1,936 1,265 NA 1984 17,431 9,136 7,407 NA 471 1,194 482 NA 1,091 255 1,251 398 613 1,434 163 1,566 $296.9 $223.6 $38.3 $35.0 $410.8 2.66 3.04 3.49 1.91 1,194 952 NA 1,506 561 2,047 1,566 NA 1985 17,766 9,813 7,789 NA 385 1,464 534 NA 1,134 266 1,239 392 573 1,599 152 1,872 $241.5 $41.5 $43.1 $438.8 258 2.82 3.64 1.81 1,464 919 NA 1,505 544 2,172 1,872 NA 1986 17,984 10,406 8,002 NA 313 1,844 593 NA 1,129 276 1,227 362 586 1,446 21 2.193 $349.0 $258.0 $44.5 $46.4 $461.4 2.45 2.66 3.13 1.73 1,844 906 NA 1,503 593 2,031 2,193 NA 1987 18,185 11,144 8.131 NA 394 1,798 680 NA 1,168 270 1,253 372 538 1,455 276 2,737 $368.5 $263.7 $46.9 $47.9 $473.2 247 2.65 3.07 1.63 1,798 1,074 NA 1,23 648 1,993 2,737 NA 1988 18,364 11,886 8,857 NA 445 2,128 775 NA 1,256 250 1,404 361 554 1,462 205 2,824 $380.9 $280.5 $48.2 $52.2 $500.8 251 2.80 2.92 1.55 2,128 1,220 NA 1,653 566 2,016 2,824 NA 1989 19,135 12,318 9,321 NA 396 2,324 779 NA 1,331 293 1,468 397 569 1,512 21 2,786 $423.0 $310.4 $53.9 $58.8 $541.2 2.46 2n 279 1.55 2,324 1,174 NA 1,760 608 2,081 2,786 NA 1990 20,106 13,184 10,124 NA NA 2,660 864 284 1,410 354 1,569 4 567 1,563 188 2,839 477.8 $352.3 $61.6 $63.9 $574.6 2.45 273 2.72 1.53 2,660 NA 1,694 1,923 599 2.129 2,839 NA 1991 20,815 12,684 $353.0 $60.1 $69.4 $555.0 2.51 2.63 2.85 1.64 2,319 1,238 NA 1,798 617 2,135 2,874 NA 1992 21,102 12,592 9,550 NA 358 2,039 993 287 1,452 316 2,039 1,351 1,709 1,746 650 2,192 2,846 12,832 21,242 13,062 9,676 NA 478 1,937 981 268 2.63 2.87 1.63 1,937 1,458 1,819 681 2,203 3,164 NA 1994 21,366 13,190 9,842 gs 288 2.74 2.76 1.62 2,000 1,390 1,886 2,143 3,159 NA 1995 1996 21,821 21,711 13,617 10,189 10,095 2 14 521 783 2,078 1,714 941 879 238 227 1,697 1,662 369 378 1,659 1,655 420 429 594 603 1,556 1,639 212 3,216 191 $406.1 ‘$67.9 $87.8 $577.6 2.94 287 2.69 1.58 2,078 1,463 1,935 2,028 632 2,150 3,216 13,502 21,475 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 80-85 85-90 90-96 80-96 3.3% 25% 14% 24% 3.0% 60% 0.7% 3.2% 5.4% NA NA 12.7% 10.1% NA 45% 5.9% 48% 0.9% 0.5% 02% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% NA NA 48% 1.7% 3.5% 3.8% 0.8% 1.1% 24% NA 1.6% 1.1% 1.9% NA 4.1% 27% 1.8% NA 1.2% 3.8% 5.6% NA 42% 1.6% 6.0% 0.9% 5.1% 76% 43% 8.7% 24% 25% 5.6% 10.6% 7.9% 5.9% 15.1% 15.5% 7.9% 7.8% 8.2% 8.2% 3.3% 29% 20% 6.6% 36% 55% 0.1% 0.6% 24% 3.9% 0.2% 1.0% 07% 1.0% 5.7% 0.2% 3.3% 0.7% 3.8% 3.9% 127% 48% 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 5.0% 1.9% 5.1% 23% = 1: 7.0% 04% 0.2% 10.6% 8.7% 25% NA NA NA NA ANNUAL GROWTH RATE SITKA 1980 1981 1962 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1904 1995 1996 80-85 85-90 90-95 80-95 POPULATION 7,803 8,116 7,947 8,028 7,956 8110 8128 8252 8,294 8,283 8,588 8,881 9,002 8,966 8883 8885 8682 8733 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% EMPLOYMENT 4465 4,411 4254 4211 4,297 4517 4847 4956 5529 5831 6,040 5,835 5804 6,079 5,706 5,795 0.2% 6.0% 08% 18% Wage and Salary Jobs 3,742 3,739 «3,434 «3,347 3,272) 3,318 §=03,422, 3,302) 3,681 93,957 4,124 «3,956 9896 3,980) 4,074 03,778 39=— 3,842 3,888 24% 44% -1.4% 0.2% Mining 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 NA NA NA 0 0 NA NA NA ERR Construction 244 310 275 221 196 183 171 151 147 222 236 221 204 222 236 226 240 5.7% 5.3% 0.9% 05% Manufacturing NA NA NA NA NA 505 570 632 701 754 749 713 714 628 304 329 297 NA 8.2% -15.2% NA Transp/CommurVUtil 257 273 280 271 273 323 398 295 264 282 296 321 296 292 276 261 247 46% -1.7% -25% 0.1% Wholesale Trade 4 37 6 2 “4 a7 6 4 52 63 76 81 86 70 65 62 6 1.7% 15.4% -4.0% 4.1% Retail Trade 408 431 444 458 463 465 519 535 558 580 616 646 673 718 706 731 725 2.7% 58% 35% 4.0% Firvinsur/R Estate NA NA 69 "1 67 66 73 74 1 85 7 1 66 4 7 79 89 NA 29% 0.7% NA Services 479 493 $12 593 612 664 595, 610 906 938 997 806 846 931 1,005 1,032 1,123 6.8% 85% 0.7% 5.3% Federal Government 601 576 514 463 362 353 309 284 255 260 259 262 267 265 272 265 250 10.1% 6.0% 0.4% -5.3% State Government 204 222 231 240 254 250 279 254 265 281 304 300 308 323 318 319 325 4.2% 39% 10% 3.0% Local Government 366 376 373 388 420 440 435 399 409 441 469 480 479 497 474 494 504 3.8% 13% 1.1% 2.0% Military 174 177 193 201 190 185 195 187 214 214 203 191 222 234 207 207 201 1.2% 19% 04% 1.2% Proprietors (Self Employed) 549 495 627 663 835 1,014 1,230 1,467 1,634 1,660 1,713 1,688 1,602 1,774 1,721 1,746 13.1% 11.1% 04% 8.0% PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) $105.2 $117.2 $1220 $124.2 $124.4 $139.6 $157.0 $150.4 $164.3 $171.5 $185.2 $194.0 $196.7 $2025 $1964 $201.5 5.8% 58% 1.7% 4.4% Net Eamings by Residence $87.4 $96.0 $92.8 $91.3 $91.4 $101.4 $115.1 $104.9 $1184 $121.2 $129.1 $1326 $136.4 $1383 $1266 $129.9 3.0% 4.9% 0.1% 27% Dividends / Interest / Rent $95 $114 $13.2 $16.1 $18.1 $20.0 $227 $25.4 $235 $256 $289 $322 $296 $313 $345 $35.1 15.9% 7.7% 3.9% 9.1% Transfer Payments $8.3 $98 $159 $168 $149 $183 $192 $20.1 $224 $248 $27.1 $292 $308 $330 $354 $365 17.0% 83% 6.1% 10.4% REAL PERSONAL INCOME (96$) $173.64 $179.60 $176.85 $178.88 $172.11 $187.90 $207.63 $198.52 $216.04 $219.46 $222.72 $223.17 $218.85 $218.47 $207.51 $207.21 1.6% 3.5% -14% 12% RATIO OF JOBS TO PERSONAL INCOME Trade 235 240 251 256 269 248 250 269 258 264 276 289 308 329 340 3.53 1.1% 22% 5.0% 28% Services 2.76 275 2.89 3.31 3.55 3.53 287 3.07 4.19 4.27 448 3.61 3.86 4.26 4.84 4.98 5.1% 4.9% 21% 4.0% Local Govt an 2.09 an 217 2.44 234 2.09 2.01 1.89 2.01 2.10 215 2.19 2.28 229 2.39 21% -21% 25% 0.8% RATIO OF POPULATION TO JOBS 1.75 1.84 1.87 1.91 1.85 1.80 1.68 1.67 1.50 1.42 1.42 1.52 1.55 1.47 1.56 1.53 0.5% -4.6% 15% 0.9% ITEM : EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES Manufacturing NA NA NA NA NA 505 $70 632 704 754 749 7138 714 628 4 329 27 NA 8.2% -15.2% NA Infrastructure 502 584 555 492 469 505 569 446 410 504 $32 $42 499 514 512 487 487 0.1% 1.0% -18% 0.2% Trade 442 467 480 487 497 $02 $55 569 610 643 691 726 759 788 71 793 761 26% 66% 28% 4.0% Service/Finance NA NA 581 663 679 7TH 669 684 977 = 1,023 1,074 876 912 1,005 1,082 1,111 1,212 NA 8.0% 0.7% NA Fed Govt 775 753 707 664 552 538 504 474 469 474 462 453 489 496 479 472 451 -7.0% -3.0% 04% -3.3% State/Local $70 598 603 628 674 690 714 653 674 722 772 780 787 821 792 813 829 3.9% 23% 10% 24% Proprietors 549 495 627 663 835 1,014 1,230 1,467 1,634 1,660 1,713 1,688 §=1,602 1,774 = 1,721 1,746 0° 13.1% 11.1% 0.4% 8.0% Sum of Categories NA NA NA NA NA 4,484 4809 4,920 5,474 5,780 5993 5,800 5,761 6,026 5,660 5,751 4,036 NA 6.0% -0.8% NA EMPKET2.WK4 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX B HISTORICAL ECONOMIC DATA PERSONAL INCOME PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN REAL INCOME (1996 $) Total personal income ($ MIL. 96) Nonfarm personal income Farm income Per capita personal income (dottars) Eamings by place of work Less: Personal cort. for social insur. Plus: Adjustment for residence Equals: Net eam. by place of residence Pus: Transfer payments: Wages and salaries (Other labor income Proprietors’ income Farm proprietors’ Income Nonfarm proprietors’ Income Farm earings Nonfarm eamings Eamings by Place of Work Ag. serv., for., fish., and other Mining Construction Manufacturing ‘Transportation and public utiities Wholesale trade Retal trade Finance, Insurance, and real estate Federal, civilian mittary State and local 1969 $156.81 $156.81 $0.00 $15,766 $149.76 $6.45 ($13.65) $129.65 $17.78 $9.38 $128.88 $6.47 $14.40 $0.00 $14.40 $0.00 $149.76 $149.60 $2.95 $0.00 $18.70 $42.44 $13.64 $4.15 $13.10 $3.95 $13.06 $6.73 $4.98 $25.69 1970 $170.59 $170.59 $0.00 $16,887 $162.44 $7.09 (314.91) $140.43 $18.16 $12.01 $139.43 $7.90 $15.11 $0.00 $15.11 $0.00 $162.44 $162.44 3.45 $0.27 $20.71 $46.68 $14.72 $3.97 $13.95 “ua $13.48 $7.48 $5.04 $28.47 1971 $185.35 $185.35 $0.00 $17,523 $175.05 $7.76 ($14.92) $152.36 $18.08 $14.91 $147.80 $9.13 $18.12 $0.00 $16.12 $0.00 $175.05 $175.05 $3.13 $0.19 $23.27 ‘$45.78 $16.74 $4.28 $15.46 $4.78 $16.02 $5.71 $5.36 $34.33 1972 $206.82 $206.82 $0.00 $19,711 $196.60 $8.93 ($15.99) $171.68 $18.79 $16.35 $167.40 $10.61 $18.59 $0.00 $18.59 $0.00 $196.60 $196.60 $3.46 $0.18 $24.31 $50.23 $19.25 417 $21.31 $5.29 $17.98 $5.76 $6.35 $38.30 1973 $244.46 $244.46 $0.00 $22,946 $227.22 $11.56 ($19.35) $196.30 $20.45 $27.71 $192.92 $13.13 $20.17 $0.00 $21.17 $0.00 $27.2 $227.22 $5.60 $0.17 $30.44 $63.12 $20.22 $4.00 $24.38 $4.86 $18.18 $6.65 $6.90 $42.71 1974 $253.4 $253.4 $0.00 $22,995 $239.85 $12.48 ($19.62) $207.57 $20.85 $24.92 $204.80 $13.41 $21.44 $0.00 $21.44 $0.00 $239.65 $239.65 Mt 33 $25.22 $69.32 $21.03 $9.76 $27.15 48 $19.30 $7.04 $6.42 $45.09 1975 $232.80 $232.80 $0.00 $20,210 $209.73 $10.62 ($13.73) $185.18 $20.90 $26.72 $180.15 $1233 $17.25 $0.00 $17.25 $0.00 $209.73 $209.73 $3.05 $1.45 $19.36 $48.20 $19.11 $9.85 $23.41 $4.02 $2230 $7.35 $5.71 $46.23 1976 $258.17 $258.17 $0 00 $22,644 $240.47 $12.14 (816.74) $211.59 $21.20 $25.38 $202.42 $16.20 $21.85 $0.00 $21.85 $0.00 $240.47 ‘$240.47 $5.48 $0.80 $21.06 $64.19 $19.33 $14.59 $23.78 $6.96 $24.38 $7.43 $6.29 $46.17 1977 $258.85 $258.85 $0.00 $22,826 $240.35 $12.28 ($16.79) $211.28 $21.86 $25.71 $199.25 $19.83 $21.27 $0.00 $21.27 $0.00 $240.35 $240.35 $4.02 $0.22 $23.90 $61.32 $23.02 $8.15 $25.47 $6.85 $28.73 $8.37 $5.61 $44.49 $263.90 $263.90 $0.00 $23,378 $241.48 $12.48 ($15.07) $213.93 $23.98 $25.99 $197.56 $20.18 $23.74 $0.00 $23.74 $0.00 $241.48 $241.48 469 $0.48 $23.09 $54.77 $24.09 $7.37 $24.28 $8.04 $30.61 $11.28 $5.42 $47.36 1979 $270.50 $270.50 $0.00 $24,304 $248.93 $13.28 (815.22) $218.43 $28.31 $23.77 $203.39 $18.58 $24.96 $0.00 $24.96 $0.00 $246.93 644 90.46 $2133 $61.74 $23.78 $6.90 $33.26 $8.46 $30.13 $11.81 $4.90 $47.72 1980 $295.59 $295.59 $0.00 $25,743 $272.63 $14.85 ($18.24) $239.53 $30.86 $25.19 $230.31 $21.23 $21.09 $0.00 $21.09 $0.00 MSS $0.51 $30.08 $69.75 $26.62 $6.18 $23.85 $9.55 $35.57 $13.11 $455 $48.13 $279.71 $279.71 $0.00 $23,057 $246.27 $14.17 ($13.30) $218.79 $32.98 $27.94 $210.58 $19.01 $16.68 $0.00 $16.68 $0.00 $246.27 $246.27 $2.13 $1.38 $19.46 $49.68 $27.93 $4.91 $25.44 $9.76 $39.52 $12.33 $3.80 $49.74 $301.37 $301.37 $0.00 $23,763 ‘$250.56 $14.07 ($12.27) $224.22 $37.08 $40.08 $213.36 $18.93 $18.27 $0.00 $16.27 $0.00 $250.56 $1.76 $0.20 $18.61 $44.58 $25.21 $4.98 $28.84 $9.80 $44.79 $12.68 $4.09 $55.01 $331.93 $331.93 $0.00 $24,476 $276.73 $15.53 ($13.83) $247.36 $42.87 $41.70 $230.87 $21.54 $24.31 $0.00 $24.31 $0.00 $276.73 $276.73 $3.09 $0.67 $29.67 $46.70 $24.59 $10.13 $31.01 384 $43.52 $12.46 13 $62.21 PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN REAL INCOME (1996 $) Total personal income ($ MIL 96) Nonfarm personal income Farm income Per capita personal Income (dollars) Eamings by place of work Less: Personal cont. for social insur. Plus: Adjustment for residence Equals: Net eam. by place of residence Pius: Dividends, interest, and rent Pius: Transfer payments Wages and salaries Other labor income Proprietors’ income Farm proprietors’ income Nonfarm proprietors’ income Farm earings Nonfarm eamings Eamings by Place of Work Ag serv., for., fish, and other Mining Construction Manufacturing ‘Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Federal, civilian State and local 1984 $319.41 $319.41 $0.00 $23,353 $263.39 $15.01 ($11.06) $237.32 $47.04 $35.05 $215.19 $19.09 $29.11 $0.00 $29.11 $0.00 $263.39 $1.69 $0.56 $30.79 $34.53 $22.11 $8.30 $30.04 $8.64 $47.03 $13.02 $4.52 $61.96 1985 $341.77 $341.77 $0.00 $25,690 $279.42 $16.22 (811.48) $251.72 $49.45 $40.61 $214.04 $20.55 $44.83 $0.00 $44.83 $0.00 $279.42 $279.42 $13.73 $1.00 $24.90 $44.32 $21.33 $7.73 $31.13 $8.59 $46.97 $11.92 “59 $63.20 1986 $357.59 $357.59 $0.00 $27,047 $295.56 $17.33 ($13.42) $264.81 $50.38 $42.44 $217.24 $22.60 $55.73 $0.00 $55.73 $0.00 $295.56 $23.01 $0.96 $24.50 $54.61 $22.64 $7.44 $29.06 $9.63 $45.08 $11.58 4.30 $62.76 $369.20 $369.20 $0.00 $26,480 $306.25 $18.72 (316.16) $271.37 $52.59 $45.25 $229.08 $26.59 $50.58 $0.00 $50.58 $0.00 $306.25 $306.25 $14.98 $2.09 $32.67 $62.53 $25.39 $7.83 $9.75 $45.45 $11.69 $4.60 $61.07 1988 $387.74 $387.74 $0.00 $29,112 $323.72 $20.41 ($17.39) $285.21 $53.41 $49.12 $245.08 $27.43 $51.20 $0.00 $51.20 $0.00 $323.72 $323.72 $19.61 $0.39 $32.64 $67.03 $26.36 $9.00 $30.61 $8.14 $51.73 $11.87 $3.99 $624 1989 $413.95 $413.95 $0.00 $30,513 $348.40 $23.10 ($21.06) $304.24 $56.28 $53.43 $267.79 $30.90 $49.71 $0.00 $49.71 $0.00 $348.40 $348.40 $16.93 $0.24 $27.22 $86.10 $30.55 $10.43 $31.76 $8.65 $53.10 $12.74 $6.23 $64.44 1990 $438.92 $438.92 $0.00 $31,453 $876.23 $25.03 ($25.29) $325.92 ‘$58.65 $54.35 $35.82 $48.12 $0.00 $48.12 $0.00 $7623 $7623 $13.82 $0.23 $27.75 $103.90 $34.58 $13.57 $33.93 $10.59 $53.22 $13.60 $7.38 $63.65 1991 $429.60 $429.60 $0.00 $30,431 $362.68 $24.45 (821.81) $316.40 $56.97 $56.23 $275.20 $35.05, $52.41 $0.00 $52.41 $0.00 $362.66 $16.15 $0.29 $31.79 $88.61 $33.16 $12.47 $32.69 $10.13 $54.01 $13.56 $7.07 $62.73 1992 $426.35 $426.35 $0.00 $30,152 $357.89 $23.90 ($19.30) $314.70 $53.56 $58.09 $271.49 $33.74 $52.66 $0.00 $52.66 $0.00 $357.69 $357.89 $13.22 $0.68 $26.63 $77.72 $39.12 $12.48 $34.20 $9.27 $55.74 $15.00 $7.50 $64.13 $437.17 ‘$437.17 $0.00 $30,722 $363.70 $24.40 ($19.36) $319.94 $55.73 $61.51 $271.61 $34.65 $57.45 $0.00 $57.45 $0.00 $363.70 $363.70 $14.40 $0.77 $33.85 $79.73 $37.66 $10.99 $35.04 $9.37 $54.92 $15.74 $7.69 $63.55, $440.09 $440.09 $0.00 $30,771 $361.85 $24.64 ($18.59) $318.61 $59.73 $61.74 $269.25 $34.04 $58.57 $0.00 ‘$58.57 $0.00 $361.85 $361.85 $13.74 $1.15 $33.27 $76.06 $35.33 $11.58 $35.48 $9.66 $58.05 $15.50 $7.37 $63.86 1995 $451.13 $451.13 $0.00 $31,450 $373.72 $25.67 ($19.99) $328.05 $59.19 $63.88 ‘$279.37 $36.28 $58.06 $0.00 $58.06 $0.00 $873.72 $373.72 $14 $0.75 $79.83 $4.99 $11.26 $39.53 $9.88 $62.15 $15.42 $7.55 1.22 5m™ 57% ERR 4% 7.7% 20% 54% 1™% 5.1% 10.4% 34% 34% 53% 28% 66% 38% 41% 62% 45% 55% 10.2% 5.8% 1.0% 54% ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 40% = =—0.8% 29% 40% = =—0.6% 29% ERR ERR ERR 20% 0.0% 1.3% 33% (01% 21% 54% (OSH 37% 33% «46% 0.6% 31% 01% 21% 66% 02% 44% 6% 33% 64% 24% 0.9% 13% 54% 0.3% 3.8% 6.6% 38% 7.0% 8% = 3.8% 7.0% 33% (01% 21% 33% O1% 21% 11.6% 1.0% 8.1% 7.7% 27.0% 2™ 0.8% 5.7% 1.3% 41% 5.1% 0.9% 26% Om 1.8% 6m 3M 41% 3.6% a% 34% 10% 14% 02% 41% 3% 38% 04% 25% 11% 5.0% 04% 34% 28% 08% 16% PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (Real $) Total Personal income Per Capita Personal Income Real Eamings by place of work Dividends Transters Real Eamings by place of work (ma3) Personal Income (ma3) SHARES : EARNINGS BY PLACE OF WORK Ag. serv, for., fish., and other Mining Construction Manufacturing ‘Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal, clvllan Mittary ‘State and local ‘SHARES : PERSONAL INCOME Net Eamings DMdends Interest Rent Transters NET EARNINGS/GROSS EARNINGS ANCHORAGE CPH-U (1982-4 =100) 1969 2.0% 0.0% 12.5% 28.4% 9.3% 2.0% 68% 26% 87% 45% 3.3% 17.2% 82.7% 11.3% 6.0% 0.87 40.7 1970 8.8% 7.1% 8.6% 21% 28.1% 21% 02% 12.7% 28.7% 9.1% 24% 8.6% 26% 8.3% 4.6% 3.1% 17.5% 82.3% 10.6% 7.0% 42.1 1971 8mm 38% 78% 04% 24.2% 9.6% 9.7% 1.6% 0.1% 13.3% 26.2% 9.6% 24% 8.8% 27% 9.2% 3.3% 3.1% 19.6% 82.2% 9.8% 8.0% 0.87 1972 11.6% 125% 12.3% 39% 97% 11.9% 12.8% 18% 0.1% 124% 25.6% 98% 21% 10.8% 2™ 9.1% 29% 32% 19.5% 83.0% 9.1% 71% 0.87 “5 1973 18.2% 16.4% 15.6% 88% 69.5% 11.1% 11.1% 25% 0.1% 13.4% 27.8% 8% 1.8% 10.7% 21% 8.0% 29% 3.0% 18.8% 80.3% 84% 11.3% 0.86 1974 3.6% 0.2% 5.5% 20% 10.1% 29% 48% 19% 0.1% 10.5% 28.9% 68% 41% 11.3% 1.9% 61% 29% 2™ 18.8% 81.9% 8m 98% 087 514 1975 8.1% 121% 125% 02% 72% 25% 21% 15% 0.5% 92% Bow 91% 47% 11.2% 19% 10.6% 35% 27% 22.0% 79.5% 9.0% 11.5% 0.88 585 1976 10.9% 12.0% 14.7% 14% 5.0% 07% 1.0% 23% 0.3% 68% 26.7% 8.0% 6.1% 99% 29% 10.1% 31% 28% 19.2% 82.0% 82m 8% 1977 0% 0.8% 01% 31% 1.3% 5.0% 44% 1.7% 01% 9.9% 25.5% 9.6% 34% 10.6% 28% 12.0% 3.5% 24% 18.5% 81.6% 84% 9.9% 672 1978 2.0% 24% 05% 97% 11% 0.9% 1.6% 1.9% 02% 9.6% 227% 10.0% 3.1% 10.1% 3.3% 12.7% 47% 22% 19.6% 81.1% 9.1% 9.9% 0.89 720 25% 4.0% 23% 18.1% 6.6% 44% 48% 79.0 1980 9.3% 5.9% 10.4% 9.0% 6.0% 1.0% 21% 17% Om 11.0% eK 98% 8m 35% 13.0% 48% 17% 17.7% 81.0% 10.4% 6% 088 54% 10.4% 0% 68% 10.9% 08% 39% om 0.6% 719% 20.3% 11.3% 20% 10.3% 76.2% 11.6% 10.0% 1982 7.7% 3.1% 1.7% 124% 43.5% 0.8% 42% 07% 0.1% 74% 17.8% 10.1% 2.0% 11.5% 39% 17.9% 5.1% 1.6% T4A% 123% 13.3% 089 1983 10.1% 3.0% 10.4% 15.6% 4.0% 25% 47% 1.1% 02% 10.7% 16.9% 8% 37% 1.2% 3.1% 15.7% 45% 15% 745% 129% 126% PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (Real $) Total Personal income Per Capita Personal Income Real Eamings by place of work DiMdends: Transters Real Eamings by place of work (ma3) Personal income (ma3) SHARES : EARNINGS BY PLACE OF WORK Ag. serv., for., fish, and other Mining Construction Manufacturing ‘Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, Insurance, and real estate Federal, civitan salttary State and local SHARES : PERSONAL INCOME Net Eamings OMdends interest Rert Transfers NET EARNINGS/GROSS EARNINGS ANCHORAGE CPHU (1982-4 =100) 1984 3.8% 48% 48% 9.7% 15.9% 3.9% 45% 07% 0.2% 11.7% 13.1% 8.4% 32% 11.4% 33% 17.9% 49% 1.7% 23.5% 74.3% 14.7% 11.0% 102.9 1985 7.0% 10.0% 6.1% 5.1% 15.8% 23% 26% 49% 04% 8.9% 15.9% 7.8% 28% 11.1% 31% 16.8% 43% 1.6% 26% 73.7% 14.5% 11.9% 105.8 46% 5% 5.8% 1.9% 44% 5.2% 5.0% 7.8% 0.3% 83% 18.5% 7.7% 25% 9.8% 33% 15.3% 3.9% 15% 21.2% TAA 14.1% 11.9% 107.7 32% 5.3% 3.6% 44% 6.7% 5.0% 4.3% 49% O7m% 10.7% 20.4% 26% 92% 32% 14.8% 38% 15% 19.9% 73.5% 14.2% 123% 107.9 1988 5.0% 57% 16% 8.6% 5.6% 5.0% 6.1% 0.1% 10.1% 20.7% 8.1% 28% 9.5% 25% 16.0% 37% 1.2% 19.3% 73.6% 13.8% 12.7% 108.3 1989 6.8% 48% 7% 54% 8.8% 7.1% 5.9% 4m 0.1% 78% 247% 88% 3.0% 9.1% 25% 15.2% 3a7™% 1.8% 18.5% 73.5% 13.6% 129% 0.87 111.39 1990 6.0% 31% 8.0% 42% 1.7% 4.0% 3.6% 7% 0.1% 74% 27.8% 9% 36% 9.0% 28% 14.1% 3.6% 2.0% 16.9% 74% 134% 124% 087 118.4 1991 21% 3.3% 36% 29% 3.4% 1.0% 11% 45% 0.1% 88% 244% 9.1% 34% 9.0% 28% 14.9% 37% 1.9% 17.3% 73.8% 13.3% 13.1% 0.87 123.8 1982 08% 0m 13% 6.0% 3.3% AA 0.1% 3™ Om 8.1% 21.7% 10.9% 35% 9.6% 28% 15.6% 42% 21% 17.9% 73.8% 12.6% 13.6% 128.0 25% 1% 1.6% 4.0% 5% 0.1% 0.8% 4.0% 0m 93% 219% 10.4% 3.0% 96% 26% 15.1% 43% 21% 17.5% 73.2% 12.7% 14.1% 0.88 132.0 1994 Om Om os 712% 04% 15% 1.9% 38% 03% 92% 212% 98% 32% 9.8% 2™ 16.0% 4% 2.0% 17.6% T24% 13.6% 14.0% 168 1995 727% 13.1% 42% 0.88 1386.5 °*** 24% 1% AAG Am 0.8% am Om 30% 4% 04% 6.0% 0.1% Om am 1% Om 7A% ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 6m 0.8% 6.0% 10.6% «51.4% 3% 3.9% 57% 13% 08% 64% -1.3% om 15% 01% 48% 29% 25% O% 21% 0.8% 22% 13% 1.9% 0.8% 32% 15% “28% 43% (08% 18% 0.9% 14% O4AK% 11% = 0.0% 0% 0% 08% 25% 04% = 19% 38% 32% 3.6% 01% = 04% 0.0% 3.2% 33% 32% PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN Total personal Income (Smit) Nonttarm personal income Farm income Population (thousands) Per capita personal Income (dollars) Eamings by place of work Less: Personal cont. for social insur. Phus: Adustment for residence Equals: Net eam. by place of residence Plus: Didends, interest, and rent Puus: Transfer payments Wages and salaries (Other labor income Proprietors’ income Farm proprietors Income Nonfarm proprietors’ income Farm earings Nonfarm earings 1969 $44.81 $44.81 $0.00 9.95 $4,505, $42.79 $1.04 ($3.90) $37. $5.08 $2.68 $36.83 $1.85 $4.12 $0.00 $4.12 $0.00 4279 70 $50.45 $50.45, $0.00 10.10 $4,994 $48.04 $2.10 ($4.41) $41.53 $5.37 $3.55 $41.23 $2.34 $4.47 $0.00 $4.47 $0.00 $48.04 1971 $56.46 $56.46 $0.00 10.58 $5,338 $53.32 $237 (84.55) $46.41 $5.51 $4.54 $45.02 $2.78 $5.52 $0.00 $5.52 $0.00 $53.32 1972 $64.68 $64.68 $0.00 10.49 $6,164 $61.48 $2.79 (85.00) $53 69 $5.68 $5.11 $52.35 $3.32 $5.81 $0.00 $5.81 $0.00 $61.48 1973 $79.68 $79.68 $0.00 10.65 $7,479 $74.06 377 (86.31) $63.98 $6.66 $9.03 $62.88 $4.28 $6.90 $0.00 $6.90 $0.00 $74.06 1974 $91.53 $91.53 $0.00 11.02 $8,308 ‘$86.58 $4.50 ($7.09) $74: $7.53 $9.01 $73.99 $4.84 $7.75 $0.00 $7.75 $0.00 $86.58 1975 $95.67 $95.67 $0.00 11.52 $8,305 $86.19 +. ($5.64) $76.10 $8.59 $10.98 $74.03 $5.07 $7.09 $0.00 $7.09 $0.00 $86.19 1976 $114.31 $114.31 $0.00 11.40 $10,026 $106.48 $5.38 (87.41) $93.69 $9.39 $11.24 $89.63 $7.17 $9.68 $0.00 $9.68 $0.00 $106.48 1977 $122.22 $122.22 $0.00 134 $10,778 $113.49 $5.80 ($7.93) $99.76 $10.32 $12.14 $94.08 $9.36 $10.04 $0.00 $10.04 $0.00 $113.49 1978 $133.44 $133.44 $0.00 11.29 $11,821 $122.10 $6.31 ($7.62) $108.17 $12.12 $13.14 $99.89 $10.21 $12.00 $0.00 $12.00 $0.00 $122.10 1979 $150.13 $150.13 $0.00 11.13 $13,489 $137.05 $7.37 ($8.45) $121.23 $15.71 $13.19 $112.89 $10.31 $13.85 $0.00 $13.85 $0.00 $137.05 1980 $179.13 ‘$179.13 $0.00 11.48 $15,601 $165.22 $9.00 ($11.06) $145.16 $18.70 $15.27 $139.57 $1206 $1278 $0.00 $12.78 $0.00 $165.22 1981 $182.56 $1862.56 $0.00 12413 $15,049 $160.74 $142.81 $21.52 $18.23 ‘$137.45 $1241 $10.88 $0.00 $10.68 $0.00 $160.74 $207.93 $207.93 $0.00 12.68 $16,395 $172.87 $9.71 ($8.46) $154.70 $25.58 $27.65 $147.20 $13.06 $12.61 $0.00 $12.61 $0.00 $172.87 1983 $230.62 $230.62 $0.00 13.56 $17,006 $192.27 $10.79 ($9.61) $171.87 $29.79 $26.97 $160.41 $14.97 $16.89 $0.00 $16.89 $0.00 $192.27 PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN Total personal income (Sil) Nontarm personal income Farm Income Population (thousands) Per capita personal Income (dollars) Earnings by place of work Less: Personal cont. for social insur. Plus: Adjustnent for residence Equals: Net eam. by place of residence Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent Plus: Transfer payments Wages and salaries ‘Other labor income Proprietors’ income Farm proprietors’ income Nonfarm proprietors’ income Farm eamings Nontarm eamings 1984 $230.72 $230.72 $0.00 13.68 $16,868 $190.25 $10.84 ($7.99) $174.42 $33.97 $25.32 $155.43 $13.79 $21.03 $0.00 $21.03 $0.00 $190.25 1985 $253.97 $253.97 $0.00 13.30 $19,090 $207.63 $12.05 ($8.53) $187.05 $36.74 $30.18 $159.05 $15.27 $33.31 $0.00 $33.31 ‘$0.00 $207.63 1986 $270.45 $270.45 $0.00 13.22 $20,456 $223.54 $13.11 (810.15) $200.28 $38.10 $32.07 $164.30 $17.09 $42.15 $0.00 $42.15 $0.00 $223.54 1987 $279.73 $279.73 $0.00 12.96 $21,578 $232.03 $14.19 (812.24) $205.60 $39.85 $34.28 $173.56 $20.15 $38.32 $0.00 $38.32 $0.00 $232.03 1988 $294.89 $294.89 $0.00 13.32 $22,141 $246.20 $16.06 ($13.23) $216.91 $40.62 $37.36 $186.40 $20.86 $38.94 $0.00 $38.94 $0.00 $246.20 1989 $323.54 $323.54 $0.00 13.57 $23,849 $272.31 $18.06 ($16.46) $237.79 $43.99 $41.76 $209.31 $24.15 $38.85 $0.00 $38.85 $0.00 $272.31 1990 $364.95 $364.95 $0.00 13.96 $26,152 $312.82 $20.81 ($21.03) $270.99 $48.76 $45.19 $243.03 $29.78 $40.01 $0.00 $40.01 $0.00 $312.82 1991 $373.48 $373.48 $0.00 14.12 $26,456 $315.29 $21.28 (518.96) $275.07 $49.53 $48.88 $239.26 $30.47 $45.57 $0.00 $45.57 $0.00 $315.29 $383.24 $383.24 ‘$0.00 14.44 $27,103 $321.70 $21.48 (517.35) $262.87 $48.15 $52.22 $244.04 $30.33 MIM $0.00 MIM $0.00 $321.70 $405.25 $405.25 $0.00 14.23 $28,478 $337.14 $22.62 ($17.95) $296.57 $51.66 $87.02 $251.77 $32.12 $53.25 $0.00 $53.25 $0.00 $337.14 1994 $416.60 $416.60 $0.00 14.30 $29,129 $342.54 $23.33 ($17.60) $301.61 $56.55 $56.45, $254.88 $32.22 $55.45 $0.00 $55.45 $0.00 $4254 1985 ‘$438.77 $438.77 $0.00 1454 $30,589 $363.48 $24.97 $319.07 $57.57 $62.13 $271.72 $35.29 $56.47 $0.00 $56.47 $0.00 $363.48 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 7080 8090 690-95 8680-95 13.5% 7.4% 3.8% 6.2% 135% 74% 3.8% 6.2% 13% 2.0% 0.6% 1.5% 12.1% 5.3% 32% 48% 13.1% 6.6% 3.0% 5.4% 15.7% 8.7% 37% 7.0% 9.6% 66% -1.6% 3.8% 13.3% 6.4% 33% 54% 13.3% © 10.1% 34% 78% 15.7% 11.5% 66% 9.8% 13.0% 5.7% 23% 45% 18.6% 8.8% 35% 7.0% 11.1% = 12.1% TA% = 10.4% 11.1% = 121% 7TA% = 10.4% 13.1% 6.6% 3.0% 5.4% PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN Eamings by Piace of Work Private AG. serv., for., fish, and other Agricutural sewices Forestry, fisheries, and other Forestry Fisheries Other Mining Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels Construction General buikding contractors. Heavy construction contractors. ‘Special trade contractors Manufacturing Durable goods Lumber and wood products Fumiture and fotures ‘Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Blectronic and other electric equipment Motor veticles and equipment Other transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing Industries Ordnance Nondurable goods Food and kindred products Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products Paper and alled products Printing and publishing Chemicals and alled products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and misc. plastics products Leather and leather products (0) ( o (0) w (2) (o) $32.10 $0.84 $0.13 $0.71 (0) (0) (2) $0.00 wo (o) $5.34 $2.26 $1.96 $1.12 $12.13 “a7 472 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 () $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $7.16 $0.85 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1970 $35.91 $1.02 $0.15 $0.87 ©) (0) $0.00 $0.08 (2) $0.00 w (2) $6.12 $2.56 $1.93 $1.63 $13.80 $5.79 $5.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (2) $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $8.01 $0.85 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1974 $39.49 $0.95 $0.19 $0.76 © © $0.00 $0.06 ©) $0.00 wo (0) $7.09 $2.98 $2.21 $1.90 $13.95 $5.68 $5.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (2) $0.00 $0.00 (©) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $8.26 $0.76 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1972 $45.71 $1.08 $0.10 $0.99 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.06 (0) $0.00 wo (0) $7.60 $3.30 $2.01 $2.0 $15.71 $6.38 $6.13 $0.00 $0.00 (L) $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 @ $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $9.33 $1.06 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) ( $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1973 $55.72 $1.83 $0.05 $1.77 () (0) $0.00 $0.06 () $0.00 wo () $9.92 421 $2.64 $3.08 $20.57 $9.50 $9.35 $0.00 wo $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $11.08 90.76 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ss 1974 $65.43 $1.63 $0.10 $1.53 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.12 (0) $0.00 © (o) $9.11 $3.16 $1.93 $4.02 $25.04 $11.10 $10.94 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 () $0.00 $0.00 © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) $13.94 $0.73 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ss $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1975 $61.83 $1.25 $0.08 $1.17 )) ©) $0.00 $0.47 © $0.00 0 () $7.96 $2.02 $3.28 $2.65 $19.81 $5.40 $5.10 $0.00 $0.10 () $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 ” $i44t $0.88 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 3s $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1976 $79.96 $2.43 $0.14 $2.32 © © 30.00 $0.35 © $0.00 0 © $933 $2.51 $4.24 $2.58 $28.42 $11.50 $11.2 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © $0.00 $0.00 0) $0.00 $0.00 (N) $16.93 $1.06 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ©) © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1977 385.78 $1.90 $0.10 $1.80 © © $0.00 $0.10 © $0.00 0 © $11.29 $3.99 $4.27 $3.03 $28.95 $10.71 $10.49 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 © $0.00 $0.00 (L) ” $18.25 $1.31 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ss 1978 1979 1980 $89.71 $101.29 $125.35 $237 $3.58 $2.76 $0.09 $0.11 $0.06 $2.28 $347 $2.70 © © © © © © $025 $025 «$031 © o © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.11 $0.23 © © © $11.68 site $18.21 446 M18 4.01 336 $9.95 $386 $355 $4.28 $27.69 $427 4227 $1143 $19.53 $2241 $10.96 $18.69 $2147 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © © ©) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © o © © $0.00 “ ” “” $16.27 $14.74 $19.87 $2.11 $1.30 $1.90 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © © © © © © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1981 1982 1983 $117.75 $123.35 $137.52 $1.39 $1.22 $215 90.07 $0.09 $0.10 $1.32 $1.13 $2.05 90.36 $0.37 0.77 $1.68 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.90 0.14 $0.47 () © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.21 (0) (0) Oo oO $1270 © $12.84 $20.62 $1.99 26 4.69 $6.05 $5.20 $7.12 $4.67 $5.30 $8.80 $3256 «$30.76 $32.45 $14.51 $15.70 $13.35 $1352 $14.77 $1258 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © () $0.00 () $0.00 to) © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ™) “) $18.05 $15.05 $19.10 $3.31 (0) © $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 © (2) © () $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN Eamings by Place of Work Private Ag. serv, for, fish,, and other Agricutural services Forestry, fisheries, and other Forestry Fisheries Other Mining Metal mining Coal mining Cll and gas extraction Nonmetalic minerals, except fuels Construction General building contractors Heavy construction contractors ‘Special trade contractors Durable goods Lumber and wood products Fumiture and fixtures ‘Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Electronic and other electric equipment Motor vehicles and equipment Other transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Nondurable goods Food and Kindred products Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products Paper and alled products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and misc. plastics products Leather and leather products 1984 $132.83 (0) (0) (0) (0) (N) (0) (0) $1.37 $0.18 $1.19 $0.53 $0.66 $0.00 $0.41 $0.00 $0.25 $22.24 $4.49 4.87 $12.88 $24.94 $10.25 $9.84 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $14.69 $3.82 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1985 1986 $148.39 © $164.06 $10.20 $17.40 © © ) oO ) (0) © (0) (0) $9.44 $16.67 $0.00 $0.00 $0.74 $0.73 (oO) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $059 $0.50 () o $0.23 $18.51 $18.53 $4.48 $4.07 $3.82 $7.94 $10.20 $6.52 $32.94 $41.30 $17.62 $17.27 © $17.27 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0 © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © 0 © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ” ” ” $15.32 $24.03 (0) $6.04 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 © (0) (0) Oo) (oo) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1987 1988 1989 $173.42 $186.73 $207.12 $11.35 $14.92 $13.23 (0) (2) (0) ( (0) (0) (0) (2) (0) $10.37 $13.87 $11.97 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.59 $0.30 90.18 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.27 (L) $1.58 (L) 90.15 $24.75 $24.62 $21.28 $3.18 $3.03 $2.80 $15.22 $14.00 $14.17 $6.35 $7.60 $7.31 $47.37 $50.98 $67.30 $23.20 $22.02 $32.40 () () (2) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (L) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 () (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ) (N) ww) $24.18 $28.96 $34.90 $4.72 $6.03 $9.35 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 (D) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $242.45 $11.49 0) $10.17 (0) $0.00 $0.19 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (L) $0.19 $23.08 $2.49 (0) $11.92 (0) $8.67 $86.39 $51.74 © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 w) $34.86 $10.16 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (2) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1991 $242.81 $14.04 $0.34 $13.70 $0.00 90.25 $0.00 $0.00 $0.25 $27.64 $742 $77.04 $42.85 90.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $34.19 $10.25 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1982 1993 $243.83 $256.52 $11.88 $13.35 $045 $0.55 $11.43 $12.80 (0) (0) © (0) $0.00 $0.00 $061 $0.71 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $061 $0.71 $25.92 $31.38 (0) $5.50 © $16.86 $639 $9.02 $69.86 $73.91 $33.38 $38.04 $33.25 $38.04 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.13 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ) w) $3648 $35.87 $10.06 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) 0) $1.24 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1994 1995 $260.44 $281.61 $13.00 $14.15 $0.59 $0.97 $1241 $13.17 (0) ©) © © $0.00 $0.00 $1.09 $0.73 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.44 $0.00 $0.65 (0) $31.49 $35.60 $7.27 $8.68 $13.51 $16.24 $10.72 $10.47 $7276 © $77.65 $33.99 © $36.43 © © $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (©) ©) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © $0.00 ) ™) $38.77 41.2 (0) $11.85 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) $1.29 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 13.3% 10.5% 68% 12.0% ERR 14.5% ERR ERR 11.5% 48% 17.8% 10.1% 11.8% 145% 14.8% 95% 8.4% ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 68% 3.0% 5.5% 15.3% 43% 11.5% 100.0% ERR 206% 100.0% ERR 11.2% ERR -100.0% ERR 47% 31.0% 6.0% 100.0% ERR -100.0% ERR -100.0% ERR 24% 91% = =4.6% 4% 2.0% 54% 18% 64% 33% TA% 3.8% TAM 21% 4% 87% 68% 33% 100.0% ERR -100.0% 57% 35% 5.0% 18.3% 3.1% 13.0% KETCHIKAN ‘Transportation and public titties Raliroad transportation Trucking and warehousing Water transportation (Other transportation Local & interurban passenger transit Transportation by air Pipelines, except natural gas Transportation services Communications Blectric, gas, and sanitary services Wholesale trade Retail trade Building materials and garden equipment General merchandise stores Food stores Automotive dealers & service stations Apparel and accessory stores Home funiture and furishings stores Enting and drinking places Miscellaneous retail Finance, insurance, and real estate Depository & non-depository institutions Other finance, insurance, & real estate ‘Security & commodity brokers & services Insurance carters Insurance agents, brokers, and services Real estate Combined real estate, insurance, etc. Hokding and other investment companies Services Hotels and other lodging places Personal services Private households Business services Aiko repair, services, and parking Miscellaneous repair services ‘Amusement and recreation services Motion pictures Heath services Legal services Educationel services Social services Museums, botanical, zoological gardens Membership organizations Engineering and management services Miscellaneous services Government Federal, civilian Miltary State and local ‘State Local 1969 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) () (0) (0) (N) (s) $3.96 $0.00 $0.72 s14 (@ $0.30 $1.06 $0.00 $0.54 (0) $1.19 $3.74 (0) $1.17 (0) $0.31 $0.14 $0.11 $0.72 $0.51 $1.43 (2) (0) $0.51 90.19 $0.16 $0.35 $10.69 $1.92 $1.42 $74 () (N) 1970 $4.35 $0.00 $0.81 $1.37 (0) $0.39 $1.17 $0.00 (0) $0.61 (0) $1.17 $4.12 (0) $1.33 ©) $0.35 $0.17 $0.13 $0.75 $0.52 $1.25 (0) $0.15 (2) (0) $1.33 $0.57 $0.00 $0.00 ) $0.45 $12.12 $2.21 $1.49 $8.42 ) (Ny) 1971 $5.10 $0.00 $0.87 $1.35 $0.46 $1.33 $0.00 © $1.07 (0) $1.30 $471 (0) $1.36 (0) $0.43 $0.19 $0.16 $0.87 $0.70 $1.46 (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.12 $0.65 w (0) $4.88 ©) $0.26 $0.13 $0.57 $0.41 $0.09 (0) (0) $1.64 $0.76 (0) (N) $0.00 $0.00 (N) $0.52 $13.83 $1.74 $1.63 $10.46 (N) (N) 1972 $6.02 $0.00 $1.05 $1.70 (o) $0.39 si74 $0.00 © $1.10 © $1.31 $6.66 (0) $1.97 (o) $0.50 $0.16 $0.24 $1.39 $0.93 $1.66 (0) (0) (0) © $0.16 $0.78 wo (0) $5.62 $0.32 $0.12 $0.64 $0.31 $0.16 (0) (0) $217 $0.65 (@ (N) $0.00 $0.00 Ww) $0.46 $15.77 $1.80 $1.99 $11.98 () () 1973 $6.59 $0.00 $0.87 $2.16 $0.50 $1.65 $0.00 $1.34 (@) $1.30 $7.95 (2) $2.06 @ $0.53 $0.17 $0.35 $1.86 $4.13 $1.58 (2) (0) ©) () $0.18 $0.66 @ $5.92 (OQ) 90.35 $0.12 0.4 $0.25 $0.22 (2) (0) $2.25 $0.88 © (N) $0.00 $0.24 () $0.61 $18.34 $2.17 $2.25 $13.92 w) w) 1974 $7.60 $0.00 $0.80 $2.93 (©) $0.60 $1.61 $0.00 © $1.47 () $3.53 $9.81 (2) $2.50 (0) $0.66 $0.19 $0.45 $2.28 $1.35 $1.62 (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.20 $0.72 ($0.32) (2) $6.97 « 943 $0.10 $0.33 $0.22 $0.39 (0) (0) $2.59 $1.06 (@ $0.00 0.44 (N) $0.74 $21.16 $2.54 $2.32 $16.29 wy) ) 1975 1976 = 1977S 1978 = 4979 19800 981 = 18821883 $7.85 $8.56 $10.87 $12.18 = $13.20 $16.25 $18.23 $17.40 $17.09 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.09 $0.10 $0.11) $0.00 $073 $0.70 $0.80 $1.06 $1. $0.76 $084 $083 $0.85 $273 $330 $4.76 «$5.43 $5.77 $725 S773 $836 $8.62 (0) © (2) © oO © © © $063 $0.68 «= $0.79 $0.81 = $0.94 $1.17) S087 = $0.28 $0.48 $202 $251 «$3.12, $3.26 $348 $499 $8.20 STS 85.03 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (O) © © ©) ©) ©) © (©) $159 $1.18 $1.05 $1.29 $1.40 $152) 8163 S1.79 $1.79 (0) () ©) () () () © () $405 $8.46 $3.85 0 $373 $383 $3.75 $3.20 $343—8:7.04 $962 $1053 $1203 $12.28 $1291 $14.48 $16.61 $19.90 $21.54 (0) (2) (0) (0) (0) (0) $1.55 $1.37 $1.29 $147) $183 $1.73 $1.25 $1.38 $1.52) © ©) (0) ©) (2) (2) © ( © $0.73 $0.83 © $1.00 $1.20 $148 $1.62 $1.86 $281 $2.19 $0.29 $035 «$027 «$0.43 $050) 0ST) 056 HOBT$1.12 $035 $049 $043 $043 $048 $052 $057 $085 $1.09 $251 $271 S381 $396 $430 S454 HSS 48K 8552 $228 $231 $239 $227) $237 «$268 = $307 $352 $4.16 $165 $3.08 «= $3.23 $4.06 «= $4.70 $5.79 «= $6.37 $8.76 «= $5.93 © (@) (0) © ©) © © ©) ©) © ©) ©) ©) 0) (0) © (0) © (0) (0) (©) (0) (0) (0) ( (0) (©) () (2) $027 $0.33 $0.40 $0.48 $0.52 $0.88 «= $0.88 $0.79 = $0.53 $064 $098 $065 $1.13 $132 «$121 80.78 = $0701.17 ($0.69) $0.00 $0.00 () $0.00 () 0 o rt) © © © © i) © $2.08 $0.87 $9.16 $10.80 $1356 $1548 $1672 $2156 $25.79 $30.90 $30.24 2} © © ©) © © © © $050 $049 $047 $085 «$0.73 8075 S077) 088 S17 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 «© $0.06 $0.06 $0.08 §= $0.08 9 $0.07 $044 = $0.65 $0.92 $1.04 $1.19 $283 S341 $4.81 82.59 $0.25 $0.29 $030 $039 $051 $051 $05 $025 $0.29 $0.36 $039 $049 $057 $069 $097 $094 $1.22 $1.54 (0) © (0) (0) (2) (0) © ©) (0) © (0) © (0) () © © $299 S374 $458 $5.26 = $5.77 “$7.01 $851 S967 $9.45 $1290 $1.16 $1431.50 S15 S11 $1378.97 $1.95 () © © ©) ©) © $0.15 $0.16 $042 $052 $0.79 $0.85 $1.04 S145 $1.78 S241 $1.14 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $086 «$1.06 $137) $1.60 $1.77 $1.92 $205 $247 $3.40 (N) () ™) w") w) w™) w~) W) $116 $1.33 $1.66 $1.74 $1.99 $248 $285 $3.02 $3.36 $24.36 $26.52. $27.71 $32.39 «$35.76 «$39.87 $4299 $49.52 $54.75 $3.02 $329 $395 $5.70 $655 $7.94 = $8.05 S875 ($8.68 $235 $279 «$274 «= $274 = $272—s« $276 $248 «$282 «82.87 $19.00 $20.44 $21.01 $23.95 $28.49 $29.17 $3247 $37.96 $43.23 ” ro) ” $11.68 $1295 $14.22 $16.97 $19.68 “” ) ”) $14.80 $16.22 $1825 © $20.99 $2355 PIKETPOW.WK4 KETCHIKAN Transportation and public utilities Railroad transportation Trucking and warehousing Water transportation Other transportation Local & interurban passenger transit Transportation by alr Pipelines, except natural gas Transportation services Communications Bectric, gas, and sanitary services Wholesale trade Retal trade Bulking materials and garden equipment General merchandise stores Food stores Aigomotive dealers & service stations Apparel and accessory stores Home furniture and furnishings stores Eating and drinking places Miscellaneous retail Finance, Insurance, and real estate Depository & non-depository institutions Other finance, insurance, & real estate Security & commodity brokers & services Insurance carters Insurance agents, brokers, and services Real estate Combined real estate, insurance, etc. Holding and other investment companies Services Hotels and other lodging places Personal services Private households Business services Aiko repair, services, and parking Miscellaneous repair services Amusement and recreation services Motion pictures Heath services Legal services Educational sevvices Social sevvices Museums, botanical, zoological gardens 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 $15.97 $15.85 $17.12 $19.24 $20.05 $23.68 $28.75 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.09 $1.16 $0.36 $0.62 $0.65 $0.49 $0.62 $7.24 $7.10 $6.39 $7.75 $8.53 $9.48 $10.55 (©) (0) (0) © ©) © © $0.92 $1.08 $2.19 32.50 $2.11 $2.61 $3.17 $4.60 $4.39 $6.10 $6.30 $6.50 $9.23 $11.96 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 () (0) (0) (0) (oO) (0) () $1.66 $1.63 $1.55 $1.37 $14 $1.35 $1.32 (o) © © () (2) @ © $5.99 $5.74 $5.62 $5.94 $6.85 $8.16 $11.28 $21.70 $23.13 $21.98 $21.36 $23.28 $24.83 $26.21 (0) $1.64 $1.49 $1.29 $1.16 $1.30 $1.42 (co) (0) (0) (2) (0) () (0) $4.92 (0) © (0) (0) © (2) $1.66 $1.57 $1.26 $1.67 $1.76 $221 $3.18 $1.23 $1.08 $0.91 $0.86 $0.77 $0.79 $0.86 $1.05 $1.21 $1.30 $1.08 $114 $1.13 $1.15 473 $5.61 $4.87 $4.83 $4.54 4 $4.19 $4.95 $5.02 $5.24 $4.83 $5.35 $6.19 $7.07 $6.24 $6.38 $7.28 $7.39 $6.19 $6.76 $8.81 () © $4.03 ‘$4.04 (0) (2) © (0) (0) $3.25 $3.35 (0) (0) (©) (0) (©) $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) © $0.43 $0.45 $0.62 $0.52 $0.64 $0.72 $0.78 $0.63 $0.68 $1.11 $1.03 $1.13 $0.98 $1.33 $1.05 $0.65 $0.58 $0.90 $0.45 $0.32 $0.44 ) wo © ce) (Ns) “) ) $0.62 $0.81 $0.97 $0.88 $0.40 $1.13 (0) $33.97 $34.90 $34.10 $34.44 $39.35 $41.51 $44.25 (0) $4.36 $3.30 423 $5.45 $5.57 $6.19 $1.56 $2.27 $2.72 $2.94 $3.26 $3.50 $3.11 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 90.09 90.10 $0.10 $2.53 $2.17 $2.44 $2.49 $2.64 $3.35 sit $0.45 $0.63 $0.61 $0.81 $1.26 $0.64 $1.05 $2.12 $1.96 $2.39 $2.69 $2.35 $2.69 $2.87 () (0) (0) (0) $1.23 $1.48 $1.82 (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.24 $0.24 $0.23 $10.18 $10.10 $10.36 $10.08 $10.73 $11.42 $12.83 $2.00 $2.07 $2.24 $233 $2.46 $263 $2.82 $0.20 $0.22 $0.23 $0.24 90.25 $0.29 90.28 $1.17 $1.38 $1.47 $1.40 $1.57 $1.31 $1.50 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.89 $2.62 $2.58 $2.70 $2.87 $3.23 $3.27 () (N) (N) (N) $4.30 $4.14 8. $5.50 $6.09 4.65 821 $0.46 $0.73 $0.90 $57.42 $59.24 $59.47 $58.61 $59.47 $65.20 $70.38 $9.41 $8.86 $8.76 $8.66 $9.02 $9.96 $11.31 $3.26 $3.41 $3.25 $3.48 $3.03 $4.87 $6.14 $44.76 $46.97 $47.46 $46.27 SATAN $50.37 $52.92 $20.20 $19.81 $20.17 $19.06 $19. $20.70 $21.28 $24.55 $27.16 $27.30 $27.21 $27.72 $29.67 $31.64 1991 1982 1993 1994 1995 $28.83 $35.17 $34.91 $33.45, $34.03, $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.22 $2.10 $2.45 $217 $2.13 $10.51 $1237 $13.14 $14.38 $14.59 © () (0) © $16.08 $1.77 $1.91 $2.14 $227 $2.37 $13.08 $16.68 $14.55 $12.00 $12.50 (0) (0) () (0) $1.21 $1.28 $1.47 $1.23 $1.19 $1.07 ©) () © © $0.16 $10.64 $11.22 $10.18 $10.96 $10.95 $286.42 $30.74 $32.48 $33.59 $38.45, $1.64 (D) $1.82 $1.91 $2.06 $1.97 (0) $0.60 $0.64 (D) $8.20 $8.64 $8.73 $7.81 $10.25 $3.36 $3.62 $4.19 44 $5.42 $0.98 $1.04 $0.99 $1.26 $1.42 $1.4 $0.93 $0.75 $1.10 (0) $4.60 $5.51 $7.01 $7.24 $7.60 $6.56 $6.88 $8.40 $8.80 ‘$9.65 $8.81 $8.33 $8.69 $9.15 $9.61 ( (2) () $490 $4.78 (0) (0) (0) $4.25 “83 co) (2) (0) co] (@) $0.80 $0.79 $0.84 $0.81 $1.45 $1.53 $0.81 $0.64 $0.90 90.99 $0.68 $1.08 $1.25 $1.36 s141 0] () “) w) “ $1.29 (0) © © © $46.95 $50.10 $50.91 $54.96 $60.45 $4.01 $3.62 $3.64 $5.64 $5.79 $2.54 $2.49 $3.24 $2.98 $2.86 $0.10 $0.12 $0.12 (0) $0.13 77 3454 421 4.19 4.69 $1.05 $0.99 $0.85 $0.96 $1.14 $2.47 $2.19 $2.19 $1.93 $3.37 $2.04 $2.06 $2.79 $3.25 $3.24 $0.37 90.38 $0.58 (0) (© $13.79 $16.22 $16.74 $18.00 = $20.59 $4.02 $3.13 34 $3.81 7 $0.35 $0.40 $0.43 $045 $0.49 $2.18 $242 $2.69 $249 $271 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $3.61 $3.85 $4.14 $3.19 $3.06 $2.52 $2.59 $2.90 $2.76 $3.07 $3.15 452 $204 “rt $5.03 $7248 «= $77.87 $80.62 $82.10 $81.87 $11.79 $13.48 $14.59 $14.68 $15.00 $6.15 $6.74 $7.13 $6.98 $7.4 $54.54 $57.65 $58.91 $60.45 $59.54 $21.55 $23.42 $244 $24.82 $25.08 $32.99 $4.23 $34.57 $35.63 $34.46 14.1% ERR 0m™% 18.1% 11.7% 15.7% 9.8% 123% 13.4% ERR 0% 16.5% 12.6% 14.7% 19.7% 17.8% 16.5% ERR 28% 76% 16.4% ERR 14.1% 6% 17.1% 122% 274% ERR ERR 16.1% 94% ERR ERR 16.5% 12.6% 13.6% 6.3% 13.2% ERR ERR ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 5.9% 100.0% 2.0% 3.8% 10.5% 9.1% 14% 11.7% 6.9% ERR -100.0% 7.0% 41% 8.3% 0.8% 10.3% 4% ERR 7.2% 9.6% 75% ERR 15.4% 5% 38% 73% 11.5% ERR ERR 6% 72% ERR 03% 5.5% ERR eK 5.8% 3.6% 83% 6.1% 5.1% 6.9% 34% ERR 28.0% 67% 5% 0.9% 41% 0K 64% 7.1% ERR 11.3% 10.5% -100.0% 12.6% 64% 18% 82% 5.8% 26.4% 64% 1.3% 1.6% 5.4% 27% 1.8% 3.3% 12.2% -100.0% 99% 6.0% 12.0% 12.6% AS om 41.1% 31% 5.8% 3.6% 24% 33% 17% 5.0% 100.0% 7.1% 48% 49% 6.3% TAN 6.7% ERR 100.0% 84% 6.2% 100.0% 3.5% 9.0% 34% ERR 2% 1.1% 7.1% ERR 94% 5.7% 34% 5.5% 8m ERR ERR 75% 68% ERR 4% 32% 4% 4% 43% 67% 4% 45% PIKETPOW.WK4 PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES REAL (INFLATION ADJUSTED) INCO 1996 $ Total personal income ($ MIL 96) Nonfarm personal income Farm Income 2/ Per capita personal income (dollars) Earnings by place of work Less: Personal cont. for social insur. 4/ Plus: Adustment for residence 5/ Equats: Net earn. by place of residence Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent 6/ Pius: Transfer payments Wages and salaries Other labor income Proprietors’ Income 7/ Farm proprietors’ income Nonfarm proprietors’ income Farm earings Nonfarm earings Earnings by Place of Work Ag. serv., for, fieh., and other 8 Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal, civilian Military State and local 1979 $64.46 $64.46 $0.00 $16,115 $49.82 $2.81 $6.15 $53.16 $2.54 $8.76 $41.26 $4.31 $4.25 $0.00 $4.25 ‘$0.00 $49.82 $47.58 $247 $0.00 $0.56 $25.62 $2.88 $0.00 $2.24 $0.00 $0.00 $3.51 $0.32 $9.96 1980 $72.67 $72.67 ‘$0.00 $18,564 $56.37 $3.16 $7.12 $60.33 $3.03 $9.32 $47.46 $5.25 $3.66 $0.00 $3.66 $0.00 $56.37 $53.72 $2.18 $0.00 $0.89 $32.29 $3.16 $0.13 $2.26 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $1.66 $0.50 $10.64 $76.77 $76.77 ‘$0.00 $17,921 $59.24 $3.45 $6.49 $62.28 $3.87 $10.62 $50.69 $5.96 $2.59 $0.00 $2.59 $0.00 $59.24 $54.50 $1.09 $0.00 $0.96 $31.09 $3.77 $0.44 $2.93 $0.00 $0.00 $1.91 $0.15 $12.15 1982 $81.68 $81.68 $0.00 $18,400 $61.93 $3.50 $5.02 $63.44 $4.37 $13.87 $53.14 $6.28 $2.50 $0.00 $2.50 $0.00 $61.93 $59.79 $0.91 ‘$0.00 $1.81 $32.22 $3.79 $0.32 $3.08 $0.00 $231 $2.28 $0.16 $12.92 1983 $89.66 $89.66 $0.00 $17,709 $68.97 $3.90 $4.11 $69.18 $5.07 $15.41 $58.29 $6.88 $3.81 $0.00 $3.81 $0.00 ‘$68.97 $65.18 $1.70 $0.00 $2.90 $33.16 $2.27 $0.10 $3.68 $0.00 $2.66 $2.95 $0.18 $15.59 1984 $91.60 $91.60 $0.00 $16,613 $74.00 $4.25 $2.48 $72.23 $5.95 $13.42 $60.82 ‘$6.89 $6.29 ‘$0.00 $6.29 ‘$0.00 $74.00 $67.37 $1.99 $1.08 $2.10 $35.28 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $5.24 $1.79 $0.00 $3.09 $0.21 $16.59 1985 $96.99 $96.99 ‘$0.00 $16,750 $74.45 $4.36 $3.14 $73.23 $6.39 $17.36 $58.75 $7.07 $8.63 $0.00 $8.63 ‘$0.00 $74.45 ‘$65.06 $3.58 $1.54 $2.00 $29.88 $0.00 $0.07 S497 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $4.08 $0.27 $18.66 $103.83 $103.83 $0.00 $17,773 $79.15 $4.69 $1.91 $76.37 $8.52 $18.94 $61.59 $8.32 $9.24 $0.00 $9.24 $0.00 $79.15 $70.89 $4.14 $0.81 $2.60 $34.38 $0.00 $0.00 $5.12 $1.86 $0.00 $4.25 $0.31 $17.42 1987 $104.00 $104.00 $0.00 $17,873 $79.33 $4.94 $2.23 $76.63 $9.36 $18.02 $62.66 $9.11 $7.56 $0.00 $7.56 $0.00 $79.33 $69.49 $4.01 S044 $1.50 $35.65 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $5.33 $1.75 $0.00 $4.25 $0.32 $16.25 1988 $113.03 $113.03 $0.00 $18,908 $87.26 $5.70 $2.06 $83.62 $9.95 $19.47 $68.75 $9.80 $8.71 $0.00 $8.71 $0.00 $87.26 $76.72 $5.60 $0.27 $3.30 $38.12 $0.00 $0.10 $5.67 $1.52 $0.00 S441 $0.39 $17.34 BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) D. NATIONAL VARIABLE ASSUMPTIONS 1. U.S. Inflation Rate [GRUSCPI] 2. U.S. Real Average Weekly Earnings [GRRWEUS] 3. U.S. Real Per Capita Income [GRDIRPU] 4. U.S. Unemploy- ment Rate (UUs) E. PERSONAL INCOME 1. Exxon Valdez Settlement [PITRANX] F. REGIONAL ASSUMPTIONS 1. Population 2. Employment 3.5 percent — Long-term rate consistent with Alaska Dept. of Revenue petroleum price forecast (DOR.S97M) Growth in real average weekly earnings averages O percent annually Growth in real per capita income averages 1 percent annually in excess of real average weekly earnings Long-run rate averages 6.5 percent Alaska residents receive $1 billion in settlements between 1998 and 2003 Regional population growth allocated on the basis of existing population and employment growth except for increasing share of Greater Anchorage population growth allocated to Mat-Su Borough No. significant shifts in the location of support industries except for increasing share of Greater Anchorage support activity to Mat-Su Borough 3.5 percent — Long-term rate consistent with Alaska Dept. of Revenue petroleum price forecast (DOR.S97L) Growth in real average weekly earnings averages -.2 percent annually -8 percent Long-run rate averages 6.25 percent Same as base Same as base Same as base HIGH CASE (CE96H) 3.5 percent — Long-term rate consistent with Alaska Dept. of Revenue petroleum price forecast (DOR.S97H) Growth in real average weekly earnings averages .2 percent annually 1:2 percent Long-run rate averages 6.75 percent Same as base Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 9 November 1996 C.3. Permanent Fund 23. Permanent Fund Principal [EXPF1] 24. Permanent Fund Dividend [EXPFDIST] 25. Permanent Fund Earnings {EXPFTOGF] 26. Total Real Rate of Return [ROR + RORPPF] C.4. Miscellaneous 27. State-Local Wage Rates [EXWR] 28. Local Property Tax Rates [RLPTRATE] 29. Federal Cost- of-Living Adjustment Added to Federal Wages and Salaries [PCOLART] BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) Deposits from petroleum revenues continue at current rates; inflation proofing eliminated when complete withdrawal of nominal earnings commences. Continued at the rate of 50 per- cent of earnings averaged over the previous 5 years. After per- sonal income tax is reimposed, dividend is gradually reduced to 25 percent of earnings (cut by half) but not completely phased out. After payment of the dividend, the remaining Fund earnings {inflation proofing and undis- tributed income) are added to the corpus of the Permanent Fund. After the personal income tax is reimposed, a gradually increasing share of the earnings are diverted to the general fund. Inflation proofing is eventually eliminated. 5 percent — This compares to the 5 percent time-weighted historical cash income realized rate of return Real wage reduced 10 percent over 7 years Increase 10 percent after 2000 Declines from 25 to 15 percent over the period 1999 to 2003 — 2 percent annually Institute of Social and Economic Research Same as base Dividend gradually reduced to 12.5 percent of earnings (cut by three-fourths) Same as base 4 percent Real wage reduced 10 percent over 4 years Same as base Same as base Same as base Dividend gradually reduced to 37.5 percent of earnings (cut by one-fourth) Same as base 6 percent Real wage reduced 5 percent over 3 years Same as base Declines to 20 percent over same period Page 8 November 1996 BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) C.2. State Appropriations 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. Aggregate Appropriations [EXWIND] [EXRL5) Capital/ Operations Split [EXSPLITX] General Obliga- tion Bonds [EXCPSGOB] Federal Grants- in-Aid (Capital and Operating) [RSFDN] State Loan Programs [EXKTR1X] [EXLOAN2)] [EXCPSR1] Municipal Capital Grants [RLTMCAP] State-Local Revenue Sharing (RLTRS] State-Local Municipal Assistance [RLTMA] Permanent Fund /Other Special Appropriations in Excess of Spending Limit [EXPFCONX] [EXGFOPSX] [EXSPCAP] Annual appropriation equals current revenues plus funds in Constitutional Budget Reserve, but not to exceed nominal prior- year expenditure level 90 percent operations; 10 per- cent capital Bond sales for capital expendi- tures occur at a rate which maintains annual debt service payments at a level no more than 5 percent of current state revenues Growth rate slightly above USCPI AHFC, AIDEA, and other pro- grams function on_ existing capitalization None Continuation proportional to total state expenditures Gradual phase-out None Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base None Same as base Same as base None Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base None Same as base Same as base None Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 7 November 1996 7. Miscellaneous Petroleum Settlement Revenues [RP9X] [EXPF9] 8. Federal-State Petroleum- Related Shared Revenues ([RSFDNPX] 9. Personal Income Tax [EXPIT] 10. Large Project Corporate Income Taxes [RTCSX] 11. Miscellaneous Local Revenue Sources (RLTX],[RLPTX], (RLTFPX] 12. New Federal- State Shared Revenues [RSFDNX] 13. Agency Trans- fers (AHFC, AIDEA) [RMISX] BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CEQ6L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) Alaska receives $1.65 billion over the period FY 1996 to 2000 in settlement of disputed offshore leases in the Beaufort Sea and in settlement of lawsuits and tax disputes regarding the valuation of North Slope oil. These revenues are allocated between the Constitu- tional Budget Reserve and the Permanent Fund (WIN.S96M) Constant at $16 million (nominal) annually Reimposed over a 2-fiscal-year period at previous level when state general fund revenue shortfalls | would otherwise require significant state budget reductions. Income tax is reimposed prior to the time that Permanent Fund earnings are appropriated to the general fund and also prior to elimination of the Permanent Fund Dividend. Zero Miscellaneous state-local trans- fers, large project property taxes, new _ petroleum-related federal transfers all set to zero Zero $100 million contributed to general fund annually Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base $75 million annual contribution Alaska receives $1.8 billion between 1996 and 2000, and $100 million annually for the next five years (WIN.S96H) Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 6 November 1996 BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) 25. Air Transport Employment B.9. Miscellaneous 26. Electric Projects 27. Miscellaneous Construction Employment C. FIs s C.1. Revenues 1. Severance Taxes [RPTS] 2. Royalties [RPRY] 3. Bonuses [RPBS] 4. Property Taxes [RPPS] 5. Petroleum Corporate Income Tax [RTCSPX] 6. Petroleum Rents [RPEN] Employment at Anchorage and Fairbanks International airports associated with international freight handling grows to 2000 (AIR.S96M) Construction of Healy Clean Coal Project outside Fairbanks and intertie upgrades in the mid-1990s_ in the Railbelt (HCC.S96M) Various primarily _ federally funded construction projects, such as rural safe water project and environmental cleanup activities at military — sites, produce 500 jobs annually in the long term (CON.S96M) Based on Fall 1996 projections published by Alaska Department of Revenue (DOR.S97M). No change in tax structure See Severance Taxes See Severance Taxes See Severance Taxes See Severance Taxes Constant at $9 million (nominal) annually Same as base Same as base Same as base Similar to low case projections from Fall 1995 Alaska Dept. of Revenue report (DOR.S97L) Similar to low case projections from Fall 1995 Alaska Dept. of Revenue report (DOR.S97L) Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 5 Like base case but with con- tinued expansion in Anchorage through 2012 (AIR.S96H) Same as base with additional intertie construction in Glenn- allen/Valdez (HCC.S96H) Same as base Approximately constant in nominal dollars (DOR.S97H) Approximately constant in nominal dollars (DOR.S97H) Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base November 1996 B.4. Forest Products 18. Logging and Sawmills 19. Pulp Mills B.5. Seafood 20. Commercial Fish Harvesting 21. Commercial Fish Processing ral Gover 22. Federal Military Employment 23. Federal Civilian Employment B.7. Tourism 24. Tourism BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CES6H) Logging and milling employment stabilizes at 2.325 thousand in the late 1990s. There is some growth to offset some of the job loss associated with the Sitka and Wrangell mill closures. There is also some _ growth in Southcentral (FML.S95M) The Sitka and Ketchikan mills remain closed. Modest levels of wood products-related manu- facturing develop in both communities (FMP.S97M) Employment in fish harvesting constant at 9.085 thousand (SFH.S95M) Employment in processing of fisheries harvest remains constant (SFP.S95M) Strength level remains constant after 1995-96 base closures, which include Fort Greely (FMI.S95M) After a near-term contraction, employment increases at .25 percent annual rate consistent with the long-term trend since 1960 (FCV.S96M) Index of tourist visitor expendi- tures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 5 percent through 2000, 4 percent per year through 2010, and then 3 percent. Tourism-related infrastructure development grows 3% annually (TRN.S96M) Southeast employment declines 1 percent annually, and there is no replacement of Sitka mill jobs. No growth in Southcentral (FML.S95L) The Sitka and Ketchikan mills remain closed. A very small wood products industry remains in Ketchikan (FMP.S95L) Employment in fish harvesting declines 1 percent annually (SFH.S95L -2) Employment declines 1 percent annually (SFP.S95L) Strength level generally declines 1 percent annually and Ft. Richardson closed in the late 1990s (FMI.S95L) After a near-term contraction, employment declines .25 percent annually (FCV.S96L) Index of tourist visitor expendi- tures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 4, 3, and 2 percent per year. Tourism-related infrastructure develop-ment grows 3% annually (TRN.S96L) Same as base except Southeast employment increases .5 per- cent annually starting in late 1990s (FML.S95H) The Sitka mill is reconfigured and reopens in 1998. The Ketchikan mill is restructured and opens at a lower employ-ment level than before. Employ-ment is constant (FMP.S96H) Same as base Employment grows in the Southwest and Anchorage in the 1990s and is constant thereafter (SFP.S95H) Strength level increases 1 per- cent annually (FMI.S95H) After a near-term contraction, employment increases at .5 percent annual rate (FCV.S96H) Index of tourist visitor expendi- tures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 7, 5, and 4 percent per year. Tourism-related infrastructure develop-ment grows 3% annually (TRN.S96H) Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 4 November 1996 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. B.3. 17. Matanuska Valley Coal AJ Mine Kensington Mine Fort Knox Fairbanks Gold Mining Other Mining Activity ricultur Agriculture BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) None Echo Bay Mining Company begins production from this gold mine in Juneau in 1999. Operations employment is 450 (MAJ.S92M -5) Echo Bay Mining Company begins production from this mine north of Juneau in 1999. Operations employment is 340 (MKN.S92M -5) Production from this mine near Fairbanks begins in 1997, employing 250 (MFK.S92M -2) Another gold mine in the Fair- banks area opens in late 1990s, employing 200 (MFG.S95H + 1) Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases by 3 percent annually from level of 600 in 1994 (MOT.S93M -4) Employment in agriculture increases 1 percent annually (AGR.S94M) Institute of Social and Economic Research None Delayed 1 year from base case (MAJ.S92M -6) Exploration only (MKN.S94L -3) Same as base None Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases 1 percent annually (MOT.S93L -4) Same as base A coal mine in the Matanuska- Susitna Valley begins operation in 1999, employing 250 in the extraction and export of coal to Japan (MWH.S92M -3) Same as base Same as base Same as base Same as base Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases by 5 percent annually (MOT.S93H -4) Same as base Page 3 November 1996 4. Oil Industry Headquarters 5. ANWR 6. OCS 7. Use of North Slope Gas B.2. Mining 8. Beluga Coal Production 9. Greens Creek Mine 10. Red Dog Mine BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) Headquarters employment in Anchorage and Fairbanks associated with additional development of North Slope and other fields increases 1 percent annually after falling in the mid- 1990s (OHQ.S94M) Exploration in ANWR com- mences in 1998, but no com- mercial development occurs (OAW.S92M -4) None Alternative use of North Slope gas results in employment of 1,000 annually after 2005 (ONG.S95M -5) None Employment at the Greens Creek Silver Mine on Admiralty Island is constant at 250 after reopen- ing in 1996 (MGC.S96M) Employment at the Red Dog Lead-Zinc Mine in the Western Brooks Range increases to 420 in the late 1990s (MRD.S96M) After falling in the mid-1980s, employment holds constant at 4.5 thousand (OHQ.S94L) None None None None Same as base Expansion does not occur (MRD.S92M) After falling in the mid-1990s, employment grows 2 percent annually (OHQ.S94H) Development of a major field in ANWR with production com- mencing after 2005 and nominal revenues of $450 million to the state (50-50 split with Federal government) (OAW.S92H -5) Petroleum development offshore on federal lands in the Bering Sea and Arctic areas com- mences in the late 1990s (OCS.S92H -7) The "TAGS" pipeline to trans- port North Slope natural gas to market in Japan is constructed over a 5-year period. Construc- tion begins in 2005. Operations begin in 2010. The line extends from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez and includes compressor stations, conditioning facilities, and a liquefaction plant and marine terminal. Construction employ- ment peaks at 7,202. Opera- tions employment is 1,130. Construction and _ operations employment occurs all along the pipeline corridor. The pipeline produces $400 million (nominal $) in state revenue in first year of operation (TAG.S92M -3). Development of a 3.5 million ton/year mine for export, beginning in 2002, results in employment of 375 in 2005 and beyond (MBC.S92M -8). Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 2 November 1996 ASSUMPTIONS FOR LONG-RUN ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS PREPARED FOR THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Institute of Social and Economic Research NOVEMBER 1996 November 1996 BASE CASE LOW CASE HIGH CASE (CE96B) (CE96L) (CE96H) A. ND 1 TI (See graph at end of section) 1. Average About $16.50 on average over Not explicitly defined; see fiscal Not explicitly defined; see fiscal Lower 48 entire projection period, based on assumptions assumptions North Slope Alaska Department of Revenue Crude Price Fall 1996 Scenario (DOR.S97M) (1996 $) 2. Production 5 percent annual decline rate — -734 million barrels per day in 2010 and .396 million barrrels per day in 2020 (DOR.S97M) B. BASIC INDUSTRY ASSUMPTIONS B.1. Petroleum 1. Trans-Alaska Pipeline 2. North Slope Petroleum Development and Production 3. Cook Inlet Petroleum Production Operating employment remains constant. Construction-related spending declines to main- tenance level after 1997 (TAP.S97M) Employment falls through 1996. It subsequently remains constant at 3,200 as marginal fields, requiring more labor, are brought into production and enhanced recovery methods continue to be applied at Prudhoe Bay (ONS.S96M) Employment in exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in the Cook Inlet area remains constant at 1.2 thou- sand (OCI.S95M) Not explicitly defined; see fiscal assumptions Same as base Employment gradually declines to 2,750 in 2000 and subse- quently remains constant at that level (ONS.S95L) Same as base Not explicitly defined; see fiscal assumptions Same as base Employment increases through the 1990s and remains constant at 4,600 after 2000 as marginal fields, requiring more labor, are brought into production and enhanced recovery methods continue to be applied at Prudhoe Bay (ONS.S96H) Additional discoveries gradually boost employment to 1.4 thou- sand (OCI.S95H) NOTE: Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for MAP Model SCEN. case files, and codes in brackets indicate MAP variable names. These are the long-run assumptions. Values may differ in the initial forecast years to reflect short-term conditions. Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 1 November 1996 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX C ISER MAP MODEL PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES Transportation and public utilities (0) Railroad transportation ‘Trucking and warehousing Water transportation (0) (Other transportation Local & interurban passenger transit Transportation by air (0) Pipelines, except natural gas Transportation services (0) Communications (0) Electic, gas, and sanitary services 1989 1990 1991 1992 1983 1994 1995 (0) (0) $795 $993 $1040 $9.86 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $239 $217 $244 $2.75 $3.26 = $4.12 $4.00 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (D) $0.87 $0.73 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.07 (L) $0.09 $0.16 $021 $0.19 $0.20 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $000 $0.00 $000 $0.00 (0) $0.11 $0.09 $0.11 $0.07 $0.07 (0) (0) (0) (0) $038 $0.35 $0.38 $0.45 (0) (0) $098 $1.13 $1.44 Wholesale trade $0.07 $053 $057 $0. $0.58 $0.69 (D) Retail trade $552 $553 $559 $6.17 $7.02 $7.17 $7.43 Bulking materials and garden equpme $0.54 $0.44 $0.46 = $0.45 SOS1 = $0.56 = $0.37 General merchandise stores $029 $035 $033 $037 $035 $042 $0.49 Food stores $182 $1.64 $1.78) $1.84 $1.86 $1.54 $1.38 Automotive dealers & service stations $0.16 (0) (0) (0) )) (0) (0) Apparel and accessory stores $0.06 (L) $015 $010 $014 $0.19 $0.21 Home furniture and furnishings stores $0.00 (D) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Eating and drinking places $1.50 $1.67 $1.24 $1.64 $2.22 $290 $3.02 Miscelaneous retail $1.14 $4.44 $1370 S141 $14.67 $1.27 $1.63 Finance, insurance, and realestate $1.32 $1.88 $1.69 (D) (0) $226 $2.43 Depository & non-depository institution $0.38 $045 $044 $049 $047 $046 $0.51 Other finance, insurance, realestate $0.94 $1.43 $1.25 (D) (0) $1.79 $1.91 Security & commodity brokers & sem $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Insurance carriers $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Insurance agents, brokers, and servic (L) uw w (8) wy (a) uo Real estate () w w (0) (D) (0) $0.00 Combined real estate, insurance, etc. (N) (N) (N) (N) (N) (N) (N) Holding and other investment compan = $0.95 $1.42 $1.22 (D) (0) (0) $1.88 Services (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $593 $6.68 Hotels and other lodging places $087 $117 $3.11 $3.19 $385 $246 $2.83 Personal services $0.09 $010 $012 $013 $0.24 $024 $022 Private households. w $0.00 $0.00 $000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Business services $0.11 $0.13 $0.09 $0.11 $0.09 (L) $0.06 Autto repair, services, and parking $0.11 $012 $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 $0.09 $0.10 Miscellaneous repair services wu $0.07 (L) w $0.09 $0.07 (L) Amusement and recreation services (D) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.17 Motion pictures (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Health services $057 $082 $090 $080 $0.79 $084 $1.26 Legal services $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $000 $0.00 Educational services (Ly (yy (ty wy (oO wo wy Social services 11/ (0) (0) $020 $0.17 (D) (0) (0) Museums, botanical, zoological garden Membership organizations Engineering and management services Miscellaneous services (y) Government Federal, cilan Miltary ‘State and local State Local $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.60 $0.71 $0.74 $0.76 $1.18 $1.08 $1.01 $1.45 $1.49 $1.18 $0.14 $0.31 $0.18 $0.19 $0.07 $0.25 $0.39 $0.34 $0.56 $0.59 $1842 $19.49 $2209 $2263 $24.30 $23.66 $23.98 $3.54 $4.02 $4.43 $5.06 $5.30 $5.11 $5.12 $0.33 $0.36 $0.39 $0.40 $0.40 $0.43 $0.44 $14.55 $15.11 $17.28 $17.18 $1860 $18.12 $18.42 $1.24 $1.29 $141 $1.56 $1.28 $1.32 $1.14 $13.31 $13.82 $1586 $1562 $1732 $16.81 $17.28 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 100.0% ERR 21.8% ERR ERR ERR ERR 21.1% 15.0% 12.0% 128% ERR ERR ERR 15.0% 14.9% ERR ERR ERR ERR ERR 17.7% ERR 100.0% 3.4% ERR ERR ERR 32.3% ERR ERR ERR ERR ASK 97% 14.9% 1.8% 8.9% 14.0% 85% ERR ERR 13.0% ERR ERR ERR ERR 100.0% 6.1% 3.5% 70% ERR ERR ERR 125% TAN 5.2% ERR ERR ERR ERR 19.4% 16.4% ERR 15.6% 37% =100.0% ERR ERR 9.0% ERR ERR ERR TAN 33.6% 54.2% 42% 5.0% 3.7% 4.0% 24% 46% 11.5% ERR 18.8% ERR ERR ERR ERR 100.0% 11.9% 6.6% 10.8% ERR ERR 14.2% 12.4% ERR ERR ERR ERR ERR 18.3% ERR ~100.0% -76% ERR ERR ERR 24.0% ERR ERR ERR ERR 12.0% 78% 11.5% 24% 7.3% 82% 7.2% PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Transportation and public utilities «$1.60 $1.92 $246 = $2.61_— $1.58 (0) Railroad transportation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 © $0.00 $0.00 -— $0.00 Trucking and warehousing (8) $0.30 $070 $057 $0.08 $0.30 Water transportation (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Other transportation (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Local & interurban passenger transit (L) $0.00 $0.00 (L) wo $0.06 ‘Transportation by alr (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Pipelines, except natural gas $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $000 $000 $0.00 Transportation services w $0.00 (L) w w wo Communications (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Blectric, gas, and sanitary services (L) wy w wy ($0.14) $0.10 Wholesale trade wy $0.08 $0.29 $0.22 $0.07 (L) Rotail trade $1.25 $1.37 $1.92 $212, $256 $3.79 Bulking materials and garden equpme $0.14 $0.14 $0.19 $0.16 = $0.19 $0.91 General merchandise stores $0.14 $0.11 $0.15 $0.15 $0.12 $0.33 Food stores $032 $038 $056 $058 $0.73 $0.88 Automotive dealers & service stations (L) wy wy $0.05 (L) uw Apparel and accessory stores. wo wo w $0.07 $0.15 $0.24 Home furniture and fumishings stores $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Eating and drinking places $034 $041 $063 $069 $084 $083 Miscelaneous retail $0.26 $028 $038 $042 $049 $057 Finance, insurance, and real estate (D) (0) (0) (0) (0) $1.30 Depository & non-depository institution (D) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Other finance, insurance, & real estate (D) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Security & commodty brokers & ser $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 = $0.00 Insurance carters $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Insurance agents, brokers, andseric $0.00 $0.00 -—$0.00 (L) wy w Real estate $0.00 $0.00 (L) wy w wy Combined real estate, insurance,etc. $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Holding and other investment compari (D) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Services (0) (0) (0) $1.59 $1.85 (0) Hotels and other lodging places $0.17 $0.23 $0.40 (0) (0) (0) Personal services uw w w w wo $0.05 Private households: $0.07 $0.07 $0.06 $0.05 (L) w Business services $0.10 $019 $0.22 $037 $0.47 (0) Autto repair, services, and parking —_(L) wy (wy wy $0.07 $0.13 Miscelaneous repair services wy () (uy) wy wu wy Amusement and recreation services $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Motion pictures $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $000 $0.00 $0.00 Health services ww $0.05 $0.12 $016 $019 $0.13 Legal services $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $000 $0.00 $0.00 Educational services $0.00 $0.00 (L) (a) w wu Social services 11/ (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Museums, botanical, zoological garden $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Membership organizations (0) (0) (0) $031 $034 $0.35 Engineering and management services (N) (N) (N) (N) (N) (N) Miscellaneous services $0.11 $0.11 = $0.10 $0.09 $0.11 $0.12 Government $7.66 $7.76 $9.27 $10.59 $13.01 $14.37 Federal, civilian $195 $1.01 $1.25 $1.57 $205 $2.23 Miltary $0.18 $030 $0.10 $011 $0.13 $0.15 State and local $553 $645 $793 $891 $1083 $11.98 State $030 $035 $054 $075 $087 $092 Local $523 $610 $739 $816 «$9.97 $11.07 1985 1986 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.7 (0) (0) (0) $0.52 $0.09 (0) (0) (0) $0.00 wo wo (0) (0) $0.00 $1.20 $0.07 $3.87 $0.42 $0.32 $1.17 $0.09 $0.15 $0.00 $0.97 $0.76 (0) $1.41 $0.28 (0) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 (y) wo $0.05 (L) $0.00 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.06 () wo (0) (0) $0.16 (ul) wy $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.22 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.07 $0.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.25 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.15 $0.00 $0.00 $0.31 $0.37 (N) (N) $0.11 $0.08 $17.10 $3.04 $0.20 $13.86 $1.13 $1273 $16.63 $3.21 $0.24 $13.18 $1.14 $12.04 1987 (0) $0.00 $1.40 (0) $0.86 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.05 (0) $0.29 $0.00 $4.04 $0.43 $0.37 $1.29 $0.13 $0.14 $0.00 $1.02 $0.65 $1.32 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 (ty) $0.09 $0.00 (0) (0) $0.67 $0.06 io) (0) $0.11 (yy (0) ‘$0.00 $0.32 $0.00 ‘$0.00 (0) ‘$0.00 $0.41 (N) $0.07 $15.77 $3.22 $0.24 $12.31 $1.04 $11.27 1988 (0) $0.00 $1.64 (0) (0) $0.12 (0) $0.00 ) (0) $0.29 $0.07 $431 $0.38 $0.28 $1.48 $0.14 $0.07 ‘$0.00 $1.13 $0.84 $1.15 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.06 () (N) (0) (0) $0.45 $0.08 w $0.15 $0.15 (uy) (0) (0) $0.46 $0.00 w (0) ‘$0.00 $0.47 $1.01 (ty) $16.84 $3.36 $0.30 $13.19 $1.10 $12.08 PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES Earnings by Place of Work Private Ag. serv., for., fish. and other & Agricuttural services Forestry, fisheries, and other &/ Forestry Fisheries Other 8/ Mining Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction Nonmetalic minerals, except fuels Construction General building contractors Heavy construction contractors ‘Special trade contractors Manufacturing Durable goods Lumber and wood products Fumiture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industies Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Electronic and other electric equipme. Motor vehicles and equipment Other transportation equipment. Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing Indust’ Ordnance 9/ Nondurable goods Food and kindred products Tobacco products Textile mil products Apparel and other textile products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and alled products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and misc. plastics products Leather and leather products 1989 1990 $56.12 $61.21 $4.02 $4.48 wo wy $401 $4.47 (0) (0D) (0) (D) $0.00 $0.00 $0.09 $0.10 (L) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $368 $4.08 (0) (0) (0) (0) $040 $0.76 $31.08 $33.51 (0) $33.05 (0) $33.05 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) (N) (0) $0.46 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1991 $56.41 $3.38 $3.35 $3.35 $0.00 (0) ‘$0.00 (0) ‘$0.00 $2.28 $0.25 $1.64 $0.39 $29.92 $29.31 $29.31 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 (N) $0.61 (0) ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 (0) ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 1992 $58.43 $2.78 $2.75 $2.74 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.23 $0.35 $2.05 $0.83 $28.84 $28.13 $28.13 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) $0.71 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1983 $58.81 $3.07 $0.13 $2.94 $0.00 $2.94 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.73 $0.46 $2.16 $1.12 $24.31 $23.42 $23.42 (D) $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (D) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) $0.90 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 (0) ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) (0) (0) (0) 1994 1995 $59.21 $65.57 $293 $3.20 $0.25 (D) $2.67 (D) $0.11 (0) $257 $2.80 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (D) $421 $5.56 $0.78 $1.02 $225 $2.86 $1.18 $1.69 $2563 $29.77 $24.77 (D) $28.29 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ) $0.86 (D) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 88% 14% 6.3% 13.0% 65% 6.1% ERR ERR ERR 12.9% -100.0% -100.0% ERR ERR ERR ERR -100.0% ERR ERR ERR ERR -100.0% ERR -100.0% 224% 64% 16.8% ERR ERR ERR ERR ERR ERR 21.7% 174% 20.3% 5.5% 2.3% 28% ERR -100.0% ERR ERR 31% ERR ERR -100.0% ERR ERR ERR ERR PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES Earnings by Place of Work Private Ag. serv,, for., fish., and other 8/ Agricutural services Forestry, fisheries, and other 8/ Foresty Fisheries Other &/ Mining Metal mining Coal mining Oil and gas extraction Nonmetalic minerals, except fuets Construction General buikding contractors: Heavy construction contractors ‘Special trade contractors Manufacturing Durable goods Lumber and wood products Fumiture and fixtures ‘Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal Industries Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Electronic and other electric equipme Motor vehicles and equipment Other transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industri Ordnance 9/ Nondurable goods Food and kindred products Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products Paper and alled products Printing and publishing Chemicals and alled products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and misc. plastics products Leather and leather products 1979 $19.99 $1.37 $0.00 $1.37 (0) (0) $0.00 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.15 $0.31 (0) (0) $0.05 $14.22 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 (N) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1980 $26.41 $1.32 $0.00 $1.32 (0) (0) $0.00 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.13 $0.54 (0) (0) $0.11 $19.57 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 1984 1985 1986 $34.92 $39.08 $38.22 $43.23 $44.33 $49.53 1981 1982 1983 $29.39 $32.13 $0.71 $0.63 $1.18 (t) (y wy) $0.72 $0.62 $1.16 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (Ly (ty) (lt) $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.63 $1.25 $2.02 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.08 $0.16 $0.08 $20.30 $22.23 $23.04 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 (N) (N) (N) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $1.44 (ty $1.42 (0) (0) $0.00 $0.78 (0) $0.00 (0) $0.00 $1.52 $0.46 ‘$0.69 $0.37 $25.48 $25.21 $25.21 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 (N) $0.27 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.66 (uy $2.64 (0) (0) $0.00 $1.15 (0) $0.00 $0.80 (0) $1.49 (0) (0) $0.53 $22.21 $21.45 $21.45 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) $0.75 (0) ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $3.13 0 $3.10 $0.62 $2.48 $0.00 $0.61 (0) $0.00 (0) $0.00 $1.96 (0) (0) $0.56 $26.00 $25.63 $25.63 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ) $0.37 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ) ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.04 (wy $3.01 $0.47 $2.54 ‘$0.00 $0.33 (0) $0.00 $0.06 (0) $1.14 (0) (0) $0.36 $27.01 $25.53 $25.53 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (N) $1.48 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $4.26 0 425 $0.49 $3.76 $0.00 $0.21 (2) $0.00 $0.08 (0) $251 $0.43 $1.08 $1.00 $28.99 $28.12 $28.12 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 ) $0.87 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 (0) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES Total personal Income ($mil) Nonfarm personal income Farm income 2/ Population (thousands) / Per capita personal income (dollars) Earnings by place of work Less: Personal cont. for social insur. 4/ Pus: Adustment for residence 5/ Equals: Net eam. by place of residence Pius: DiMdends, interest, and rent 6/ Pius: Transfer payments Wages and salaries Other labor income Proprletors' income 7/ Farm proprletors’ income Nonfarm proprietors’ income Farm eamings Nonfarm earnings 1989 $99.46 $99.46 $0.00 6.29 $15,814 $74.54 $4.94 $2.97 $72.57 $9.90 $16.99 $59.15 $8.44 $6.96 $0.00 $6.96 ‘$0.00 $74.54 1990 $112.81 $112.81 $0.00 6.29 $17,923 $80.71 $5.36 $5.93 $81.28 $12.83 $18.70 $64.04 $9.06 $7.61 $0.00 $7.61 $0.00 $80.71 1991 $109.06 $109.06 $0.00 6.44 $16,926 $78.50 $5.25 $4.72 $77.98 $10.57 $20.51 $61.50 ‘$8.90 $8.10 ‘$0.00 $8.10 $0.00 $78.50 1992 $110.25 $110.25 $0.00 6.43 $17,149 $81.06 $5.36 $2.81 $78.51 $9.43 $22.31 $63.64 $9.06 $8.35 ‘$0.00 $8.35 ‘$0.00 $81.06 1993 $115.86 $115.86 $0.00 677 $17,108 $83.11 $5.53 $3.54 $81.12 $10.36 $24.38 $64.48 $9.16 $9.47 $0.00 $9.47 ‘$0.00 $83.11 1904 $116.18 $116.18 $0.00 6.93 $16,772 $82.88 $5.61 $3.39 $80.66 $10.04 $25.49 $63.85 $9.17 $9.85 $0.00 $9.85 $0.00 $82.88 1995 $123.02 $123.02 $0.00 TAL $17,305 $89.55 $6.12 $3.55 $86.98 $10.36 ‘$25.68 $68.96 $10.28 $10.31 $0.00 $10.31 $0.00 $89.55 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 70-80 80-90 90-95 80-95 9.9% 1.7% TA% 9.9% 1.7% 7.1% 49% 25% 41% 48% 0.7% 29% 9.0% 21% 6.6% 10.8% 27% 8.1% 3.2% 9.8% 1.3% 83% 14% 5.9% 21.5% AD 12.2% 12.7% 6.6% 10.6% 8.3% 15% 6.0% 11.0% 26% 81% 13.1% 6.3% 10.8% 13.1% 6.3% 10.8% 9.0% 21% 6.6% PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES Total personal income ($mil) Nonfarm personal income Farm income 2/ Population (thousands) 3/ Per capita personal income (dollars) Earnings by place of work Less: Personal cont. for social insur. 4/ Plus: Adustment for residence 5/ Equals: Net eam. by place of residence Plus: OMdends, interest, and rent 6/ Plus: Transfer payments Wages and salaries. Other labor income Proprietors’ income 7/ Farm proprietors’ income Nontarm proprietors’ income Farm earings Nonfarm earings 1979 $35.78 $35.78 $0.00 4.00 $8,944 $27.65 $1.56 $3.41 $29.51 $1.41 $4.86 $22.90 $2.39 $2.36 $0.00 $2.36 ‘$0.00 $27.65 $44.04 $44.04 $0.00 3.92 $11,250 $34.16 $1.91 $4.31 $36.56 $1.84 $5.65 $28.76 $3.18 $2.22 ‘$0.00 $222 $0.00 $34.16 1981 $50.11 $50.11 $0.00 4.28 $11,697 $38.67 $2.25 $4.24 $40.65 $2.52 $6.93 $33.09 $3.89 $1.69 $0.00 $1.69 ‘$0.00 $38.67 1982 1983 1984 $56.36 $62.30 $66.17 $56.36 $62.30 $66.17 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 444 5.06 5.51 $12,695 $12,304 $12,000 $42.73 $47.92 $53.45 $2.42 $2.71 $3.07 $3.46 $2.85 $1.79 $43.77 $48.06 = $52.17 $3.02 $3.52 $4.30 $9.57 = $10.71 $9.69 $36.67 $40.50 = $43.93 $4.33 $4.78 $4.98 $1.73 $2.65 $4.54 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $1.73 $2.65 $4.54 ‘$0.00 ‘$0.00 $0.00 $42.73 $4792 $53.45 1985 $72.07 $72.07 $0.00 5.79 $12,447 $55.32 $3.24 $2.33 $54.42 $4.75 $12.90 $43.66 $5.26 $6.41 ‘$0.00 $6.41 $0.00 $55.32 1986 $78.53 $78.53 ‘$0.00 5.84 $13,442 $59.86 $3.54 $1.45 $57.76 $6.44 $14.32 $46.58 $6.30 $6.99 $0.00 $6.99 $0.00 $59.86 1987 $78.80 $78.80 $0.00 5.82 $13,542 $60.11 $3.74 $1.69 $58.06 $7.09 $13.65 $47.48 $6.90 $5.73 $0.00 $5.73 $0.00 $60.11 1988 $85.97 $85.97 $0.00 $14,380 $66.37 $4.33 $1.57 ‘$63.60 $7.56 $14.81 $52.28 $7.46 $6.63 $0.00 $6.63 $0.00 $66.37 PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (Real $) Total Personal income Per Capita Personal income Real Earrings by place of work Dividends Transters Real Earrings by place of work (ma3) Personal Income (ma3) SHARES : EARNINGS BY PLACE OF Ag. serv,, for. fish., and other 8/ Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Rotall trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal, civilian Military State and local SHARES : PERSONAL INCOME Net Eamings Dividends interest Rent Transfers NET EARNINGS/GROSS EARNINGS 1989 12.6% 7.0% 7.1% 274% 11.7% 6.5% 9.3% 6.3% 0.1% 5.7% 48.4% 0.0% 0.1% 8.6% 21% 0.0% 5.5% 0.5% 22.7% 73.0% 10.0% 17.1% 0.97 1990 66% 65% 1.9% 21.8% 35% 0.3% 3.9% 64% 0.1% 5.9% 48.1% 0.0% 0.8% 79% 2.7% 0.0% 5.8% 0.5% 21.7% 72.1% 11.4% 16.6% 1.01 1991 75% 9.7% 10.0% 21.2% 49% 04% 1.0% 5.2% 0.0% 3.5% 45.7% 0.0% 0.9% 85% 26% 0.0% 6.8% 0.6% 26.4% 715% 9.7% 18.8% 0.99 1992 22% 2.0% 6.7% 13.7% 5.2% -1.8% -26% 3.8% 0.0% 45% 39.9% 11.0% 1.0% 85% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.6% 23.8% 11.2% 86% 20.2% 0.97 1993 1.9% 3.3% 2.2% 65% 6.0% 5.3% 0.7% 42% 0.0% 5.1% 33.3% 13.6% 0.8% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 06% 25.5% 70.0% 8.9% 21.0% 0.98 1994 “1.8% 40% 11.3% 5.2% 24% 45% 11% 35% 0.0% 5.1% 30.9% 12.5% 08% 8.7% 27% 1.2% 6.2% 0.5% 21.9% 69.4% 8.6% 21.9% 0.97 1995 3.1% 04% 44% 04% “1.9% 78% 0.6% 3.6% 0.0% 6.3% 33.5% 11.1% 0.0% BA% 27% 75% 5.8% 05% 20.7% 70.7% 84% 20.9% 0.97 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 47% = -13.9% 1.0% ERR -100.0% ERR 13.5% 3.6% 8.3% 22% = -10.5% 46% ~100.0% ERR 5.5% 12.3% 24% 9.3% 66% 22% 5.3% ERR 02% ERR ERR ERR ERR 65% 1.6% 5.1% 5.6% 0.3% 4% 09% 02% Om “14% 0% 1.3% 10.6% 46.7% 5.3% 26% 7.3% 3.9% 0.6% 09% 07% PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (Real $) Total Personal Income Per Capita Personal income Real Earnings by place of work Diidends: Transters Real Earrings by place of work (ma3) Personal Income (ma3) SHARES : EARNINGS BY PLACE OF Ag. serv., for., fish., and other &/ Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal, civilian Military State and local SHARES : PERSONAL INCOME Net Earnings Dividends interest Rent Transfers NET EARNINGS/GROSS EARNINGS 1979 ERR ERR ERR ERR ERR ERR ERR 5.2% 0.0% 1.2% 53.9% 6.1% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% TAN 07% 20.9% 82.5% 3.9% 13.6% 1.07 1980 12.7% 15.2% 12.9% 19.2% 64% ERR ERR 41% 0.0% 1.7% 60.1% 5.9% 0.2% 42% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 0.9% 19.8% 83.0% 42% 12.8% 1.07 1981 5.6% 3.5% 14% 27.7% 14.0% 8.0% 8.3% 2.0% 0.0% 18% 57.1% 6.9% 08% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 03% 22.3% 81.1% 5.0% 13.8% 1.05 1982 64% 27% 9.7% 13.1% 30.6% 6.7% 73% 15% 0.0% 3.0% 53.9% 6.3% 05% 5.1% 0.0% 3.9% 3.8% 0.3% 21.6% 77.7% 5.4% 17.0% 1.02 1983 9.8% 3.8% 9.0% 16.0% 11.1% TAN 6.1% 26% 0.0% 45% 50.9% 3.5% 0.2% 5.6% 0.0% 41% 45% 0.3% 23.9% 17.2% 5.7% 17.2% 1.00 1984 2.2% 62% 3.4% 17.4% -13.0% 3.0% 5.9% 3.0% 1.6% 3.1% 52.4% 0.0% 0.0% 78% 27% 0.0% 48% 0.3% 24.6% 78.9% 6.5% 14.6% 0.98 1985 5.9% 0.8% 3.4% 74% 29.4% 3.0% 5.0% 55% 24% 31% 45.9% 0.0% 0.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 04% 28.7% 75.5% 66% 17.9% 0.98 1986 71% 6.1% 9.0% 33.3% 9.1% 1.2% 44% 5.8% 11% 3.7% 48.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 26% 0.0% 6.0% 04% 24.6% 73.6% 8.2% 18.2% 1987 0.2% 0.6% -2.0% 99% 4S 5.8% 5.3% 5.8% 06% 22% 51.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 25% 0.0% 6.1% 05% 23.4% 73.7% 9.0% 17.3% 097 1988 87% 5.8% 10.4% 6.3% 8.1% 5.2% 71% 73% 0.4% 43% 49.7% 0.0% 0.1% TAN 2.0% 0.0% 58% 05% 226% 74.0% 88% 17.2% PIKETPOW.WK4 PRINCE OF WALES REAL (INFLATION ADJUSTED) INCO 1996 $ Total personal income ($ MIL 96) Nonfarm personal income Farm income 2/ Per capita personal income (dollars) Earnings by place of work Less: Personal cont. for social insur. 4/ Plus: Adustment for residence 5/ Equals: Net eam. by place of residence Pius: DiMdends, interest, and rent 6/ Pius: Transfer payments Wages and salarios Other labor income Proprletors' income 7/ Farm proprietors’ income Nonfarm proprietors’ income Farm earings Nonfarm earings Earnings by Place of Work Ag. serv,, for, fish., and other 8/ Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, Insurance, and real estate Services Federal, civilian Military State and local 1989 $127.25 $127.25 $0.00 $20,233 $95.37 $6.32 $3.80 $92.85 $12.67 $21.73 $75.68 $10.79 ‘$8.90 $0.00 $8.90 $0.00 $95.37 $82.13 $5.15 $0.11 $4.71 $39.77 $0.00 $0.09 $7.06 $1.69 $0.00 $4.53 $0.42 $18.62 $135.68 $135.68 $0.00 $21,556 ‘$97.07 $6.45 $7.14 $97.76 $15.43 $22.49 $77.02 $10.90 $9.15 $0.00 $9.15 $0.00 $97.07 $83.71 $5.39 $0.12 $4.91 $40.30 $0.00 $0.64 $6.65 $2.26 $0.00 $4.84 $0.44 $18.17 $125.44 $125.44 $0.00 $19,469 $90.30 $6.04 $5.43 $89.69 $12.16 $23.59 $70.74 $10.24 $9.31 $0.00 $9.31 $0.00 $90.30 $75.37 $3.88 $0.00 $2.62 $34.42 $0.00 $0.66 $6.43 $1.94 $0.00 $5.09 $0.44 $19.87 1992 $122.65 $122.65 $0.00 $19,078 $90.17 $5.96 $3.13 $87.34 $10.49 $24.82 ‘$70.80 $10.08 $9.29 $0.00 $9.29 $0.00 $90.17 $80.42 $3.10 $0.00 $3.59 $32.08 $8.84 $0.77 $6.86 $0.00 $0.00 $5.62 $0.45 $19.11 1993 $124.98 $124.98 ‘$0.00 $18,456 $89.66 $5.97 $3.81 $87.51 $11.18 $26.30 $69.56 $9.89 $10.22 $0.00 $10.22 $0.00 $89.66 $78.68 $331 $0.00 $4.02 $26.23 $10.72 $0.62 $7.57 $0.00 ‘$0.00 $5.72 $0.43 $20.06 1994 $122.73 $122.73 $0.00 $17,718 $87.55 $5.92 $3.58 $85.20 $10.60 $26.93 $67.45 $9.69 $10.41 ‘$0.00 $10.41 ‘$0.00 $87.55 $87.55 $3.09 $0.00 $444 $27.08 $10.99 $0.73 $7.57 $238 $6.26 $5.40 $0.45 $19.15 1995 $126.49 $126.49 $0.00 $17,792 $92.07 $6.29 $3.65 $89.43 $10.65 $26.41 $70.90 $10.57 $10.60 ‘$0.00 $10.60 $0.00 $92.07 $91.42 $3.29 $0.00 $5.72 $30.61 $10.14 $0.00 $7.64 $2.49 $6.87 $5.27 $0.45 $18.94 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 6.4% 14% 38% 6.4% 1.4% 3.8% ERR ERR ERR 15% -3.8% 03% 5.6% “11% 3.3% TAN 05% 47% 00% -125% AAG 4% 18% 27% 17.7% 7.2% 87% 92% 3.3% 72% 5.0% 1.6% 27% 7.6% 0.6% 48% 96% 3.0% 7.3% 96% 3.0% 73% 5.6% AIS 3.3% 45% 18% 3.6% 94% 94% 28% ERR -100.0% ERR 18.6% 3.1% 13.2% 22% 54% 04% 100.0% ERR 8.1% 17.3% -100.0% -100.0% 11.4% 28% 8.5% ERR 2.0% ERR ERR ERR ERR 11.3% 1.7% 8.0% “14% 05% 07% 55% 0.8% 39% BASE CASE LOW CASE HIGH CASE (CE96B) (CE96L) (CE96H) FISCAL SCENARIO SUMMARY Income Tax Reinstated 2000 1998 2003 [EXPIT] Permanent Fund 2002 2000 2006 Stepdown Initiated [EXPFDIST] Permanent Fund Earn- 2001 1999 2007 ings Transferred to General Fund [EXPFTOGF] Wage Rate Reduction 1998 1998 2001 for Govt. Workers Initiated [EXWR] Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 10 November 1996 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX D ANNUAL AND MONTHLY ELECTRICITY SALES DATA HISTU4.WK4 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1958 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1988 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Ketchikan Historical Electricity Sales and Generation Data RESIDENTIAL SALES COMMERCIAL SALES OTHER SALES TOTAL SALES: Sales # — Charge Sales/Cust Sales # — Charge Sales/Cust Sales # Charge Sales/Cust Sales # — Charge (MWH) Cust’s kwh (kwh) (MWH) Custs kwh = (kwh) = (MWH) = Cust's./kwh = (kwh) (MWH) — Cusfs kwh 50% 1.7% 3.3% 5.0% 94% 5.1% 37% 3.8% 0.1% 29% 0.9% 20% 29% 33% 14% 18% 77% 51% 24% 25% 58% 20% 23% 05% 1.3% 0.8% 18% -12% 45% 31% 36% 14% -34% 22% 13% 09% 44% 10,552 1,977 5,337 8,499 - 19,051 11,144 2,034 5479 9,184 20,328 12331 2,173 5875 10,164 22,495 13,995 2,380 5,880 12,805 28,800 14,176 2,400 5,907 13,739 27,915 14,743 2,823 5,621 13,441 454 28,8638 14,870 2,773 5,290 13,559 589 28,818 15,105 2,604 5,801 13,421 582 29,108 15,053 2,891 5810 14,508 1272 30,923 16,635 2,752 6.045 15,200 258 32,102 16,589 2,584 6420 15,626 657 32,873 17,381 2,592 6,698 16,167 666 414 18402 2,667 6,900 17,708 612 96,719 19,626 2,787 7.419 17,789 696 38,111 20,923 2,751 7,608 18,958 097 40,578 21,123 2,974 7,103 19,167 709 40,999 22,577 3,000 7,526 20,505 097 43,779 23,213 20,750 738 44,701 24,417 2,804 8,708 22,070 816 47,303 25,772 2,963 8,698 22,984 632 49,368 27,128 __ 3,067 8.845 25,381 S87 43,238 4,820 1 1,619,616 54,129 29,246 3,103 SSD 26,067 607 T2044 7,035 6 x 37,246 30,797 3,281 9,387 26,975 637 42,347 3,102 387 8,014 60,873 30,958 3,569 8927 «8,674 «20,280 837 45,919 6419 411 15,619 06628 «4,617 27 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 32,838 3,837 37 8558 NA NA NA NA NA NA 64,167 37 35.059 4,019 41 8,723 NA NA NA NA NA NA 35,082 4,173 8407 NA NA NA NA NA NA 36,754 4,312 8,524 NA NA NA NA NA NA 37,462 4,303 . NA NA NA NA NA NA 39,135 4,459 644 NA NA 4 7 i 84 X 803 NA NA 44,961 5,053 8.5 = 8,898» 39,060 808 NA NA 514,202 5149 82 9,962 41,117 785 NA NA 49,236 5036 9.3 9,777 45,818 = 954 NA NA 48,795 5,010 10.0 9340 48,641 955 $05 19.4 5 46,904 5,047 10.0 9,203 49,958 49 S11 19.8 49,260 5062 84 9733 $7,174 1223 S57 82.9 52,812 5,051 66 10456 59,770 948 444 78 ; ; $4115 5,142 7.2 10,524 70,707__—1051 z 470159 . 36,037 5,108 72 10,783 68,858 “937 TA 74,555 40 107 852 é $4,277 5259 84 10,321 65,264 954 8.0 68,411 2,820 580 199 —§,036 122,961 84 $3,188 5,202 83 10,051 66316 967 81 68,579 1816 «471125 (3,858 121,820 82 $8,594 5,389 92 10873 77,979 977 83 79,815 2585 498 «1420 5,131 139,128 88 $5472 5476 92 10,130 77488 989 92 78,330 2988 503 134 5,897 135,908 93 50,960 78,834 2,167 198,961 SOURCE: Alaska Electric Power Statistics ‘except 1996 estimated from Monthly Revenue Report, KPU HISTU4.WK4 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1974 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 tchikan Historical Electricity Sales and Generation Data (PART 2.) TOTAL SALES NET GENERATION PEAK —_— INSTALLED CAPACITY RATIO. GENERATION Sales # Charge (MWH) DEMAND (KW) SALESTO MINUS (MWH) Custs wh hydro. oll Total (MW) hydro. diese! GENERATION SALES 5.1% 5.0% 25% 0.872 6,284 29% 3.3% 5.9% 58% 20% 23% TA% 222% = 5.2% 42% 0.892 12,218 13% 09% 44% 29% 925% 20% 34% 0.880 17,842 19,051 20,328 22.495 26,800 27,915 28,638 28,818 29,108 30,923 32,102 32,873 37,548 8 4875 M14 30,357 8 516s 36,719 41,925 8 5,205 38,111 MAM 9 6,022 40,578 46,722 10 6,144 40,999 47,870 10 6871 43,779 $1,169 10 7,391 44,701 $1,112 10 64i1 47,303 53,886 "1 6.583 49,388 55,423 "4 6,055 54,129 61,121 10 6,992 57,246 80,870 12373 63,282 124 9,800 T7900 6,008" 60,873 47,399 18,687 66,086 125 9,200 11,900 5,213 66628 4,817 27 85627 13,082 68,700 13.9 9.200 11,900 2,082 NA NA 58,160 12,011 68,171 134 9,200 11,873 NA 64,167 4,898 3.7 NA NA NA 137 11,300 11,900 NA 66,972 $,071 44 NA NA NA 4 11,300 11,870 NA 66,692 NA NA NA NA 16 NA NA NA 71,128 NA NA NA NA 15 NA NA NA 72.214 NA NA NA NA 18 NA NA NA 72,214 5445 60 67,852 16,375 84.227 17.7 11,300 17,450 12,013 81483 —-5,716 64 71,723 14,384 88,077 169 17,300 17,450 4a 84375 5,987 8.0 80,963 35,089 96,052 19.4 11,900 17,450 11,877 85,833 6.271 87 59,264 37,832 97,096 208 11,300 17,450 11,263 94,381 6407 85 103,082 4,934 107,988 218 33,300 17,450 13,585 94,855 5,990 92 113,487 0 113,487 25.1 33,500 16,950 18,632 97,43 6470 98 108,211 (712) 105,499 204 33,800 17,400 8,156 98,719 6,507 96 112,231 (730) 111,501 220 34,200 18,200 12,782 108,504 6,842 a7 135,064 (111) 134,953 238 34,200 18,200 26,449 126,304 6443 6s 112,052 17,138 129,190 267 4,200 14,600 2,886 127,904 6.683_——7.5_—138,108 1,337 139,443 268 34,200 15.450 12,139 126,888 6503 ~~ 74 142,030 387 142,387 253 4 / 122361 6,686 «= 8A 150,805 (1,138) 149,757 274 $4,200 15,450 27,306 121,320 6730 82 130920 7,714 138,643 26.9 $4,200 15,450 17,323 130,128 6864 «= 8B 148,920 1,874 150,794 286 $4,200 15,450 11,666 135,906 6,968 93 118,916 35,316 184,232 314 $4,200 12,500 18,326 138,901 Ketchikan Public Utilities Monthly Electricity Sales or 02 03 4 05 02+03+04+05 01+02+03+04+05 RESIDENTIAL HARBOR ELECTRIC SMALL COMMERCIAL —-'NOUSTRIALELECTRIC LARGE COMMERCIAL OTHER TOTAL SALES #CUST SALES #CUST SALES SCUST SALES #CUST SALES #CUST SALES #CUST SALES sCUST 1904 1 6650800 © 5,352 248,86 456 3,042,038 850 1,321,380 12 3372115 103 7984374 1490 14,844,243 8,782 2 5400352 5.358 233,080 452 2362382858 1/080/000 12 2575,853 105 6721005 1427) 14,720,417 8.783 3 5854057 5.375 2473500454 2014120 © 857 1,123,800 12 21683007104 61068348 ©1427 «= 12,222,403 8 802 4 4751678 5,373 104910 449 2,166,730 854 1,023,700 12 2,345,123, 104 5.730472 1419 10,482,150 6,702 5 4300354 5,384 132800 430 2192812 850 1,007,340 122438712105 5861464 1406 = 10,251,818 6,790 6 4,776027 5,385 117,170 488 2,153,984 8s7 4,174/500 122332352105 5,778,008 1430 10,554,033 6,795 7 «3915772 $351 75080 408 2231289 (880 1.221500 122848077105 6173800 1,383 10,080,888) 6734 8 3816784 5308 60,100 © S78 2019283 = 88t 1,573,940 122,838,161 105 6280574 1358 10,108,858 754 s 3,681,802 5,388 70,020 385 2,185,981 861 1,603,380 12 3,161,960 105 7,021,350 1,363 10,703,152 6751 10 4200279 5432 112,365 ats (2,468,951 868 1,494,420 12 3,082,706 105 ‘7,158,442 1,400 11,358,721 632 11 4849162 5,442 2224800474 2520870 880 1,202,220 12 -2585910 105 €'520480 © 480 11,389,851 6,002 12 6490308 5,455 720,080 «482 3275417 863 1(485,920 12 -3444,735 103 8,403,152 1480 14,902,550 6,915 sum/avg 58,504,534 5,380 1994398 4396 20,.242634 881 15,352,140 12 33,281,520 10579810830 1413 138,405,164 6.803 1995 1 5,034,680 5,423 240,080 «482 2.100568 860 796,300 122,001,658 = t02 5,288,804 1,456 10,823,284 6870 2 5493580 5,404 252367487 2/843,979 868 954,040 122,808,178 = 1028458562 1400) 11,052,142 8873 3 5368385 5,402 7240300474 2,877,001 868 1,138,840 12 -2,732;550 104 6772520 1456 12,140,005 6.858 4 5311523 5420 331,630 480 2508468 = 863 1,283,700 122,818,861 105 6720850 © 1,480 12,082,182 6,880 5 5101499 5,456 121540 466 2737590 (878 1/492,400 122,985,000 105 7316620 1481 = 12418,119 6,917 6 3,985,378 5461 793300424 2306200 «879 1318280 122,004,334 105 0,308,144 1417 10,273,822 7 ‘3,707,715 SAIT 71,030 att 2,133,482 rT 1,126,100 12 2,582,844 108 5.913456 1408 9,621,171 8 3,704,836 5522 66,680 379 2297507 sre 1,726,580 12 3,008.271 105 7,090,128 1374 10,803,964 9 3876510 5523 82080405 2a109s3 = -876.—«2,038,860 123205708105 7825041 1308 11,702,151 10 5550 172304 = 416 2.282542— BZ 1,285,820 1228442801058 314948 © 1405 «10,371,874 11 5,540 186895 450 2367204 880 918,860 1 2574288 105 (047,785 1448 «10,625,858 12 5520 278,770 ATS 2986470871 1,630,320 12 2,762,493, 105 7,358,062 1,463—«12,629,779 sum /avg SATO 2,058,058 = 448 29,190,003 872 ‘15,688,100 12 32480218 105 794241271434 134,804,740 1906 1 5516 24ser 487 2722554888 12 -2853,188 = 03 S349 1488 13,136,548 2 5533 316,430 ams 2954436 om 12 ‘2.807 812 103 7,188,758 1404 13,634,984 3 5,687,934 5537 220,718 amt 2,856 804 870 12 2,769,302 104 7,015,014 1487 12,703,848 4 5228474 5541 194013457 2,552,104 868 12 -2886615 105354872 1.44211 589.548 5 4436,000 5.550 157,540 220,124 877 12 -2203,877 105 ss10021 1427 9,040,621 @ 4207570 5572 110,980 2328876 (884 12 -2511,507 105 57702331438 9,988,803 7 4142081 5,551 83,760 2780120888 12 2489;508 = 105 5,878,018 «1414 10,018,079 8 3579358 5530 83,320 2,008,244 885, 12 -2778,188 = 1088 237,130 1,307 9816488 s 3,904,942 5,506 96,403 (2,369,262 eer 12 3,135,314 108 7,284,079 1416 11,250,021 10 4230543 5504 131,285 2457208 (808 12 2,770,838 108 6,808,100 1433 10,035,742 11 5,119,064 8,567 200,418 2,570,445 eos 12 2,763,287 108 008,067 = 1,484 12,088,621 12 6,000,707 5,600 27237 2,702,113 900 12 2,755,875 108 7240925 1404 13,280,682 sum/avg $0,300,288 5,561 2,106,040 443, «= 30,194488 = 883. 14,379,970 12 32,280,079 105 79,000,485 1,443 «138,380,738 1007: 4 $sr2 478 3.028.207 e068 1421220 12 (2,912,380 108 7,890,547 1464 14,347 200 2 3572 478 2.750400 808 1,189,700 12 -2615,702 107, 0,943,882 149313, 138,624 3 5564 465 NA NA 1,132,206 " NA NA NA NA NA 4 5565 4s7 2548570 802 1212;640 1 2,481,827 11 6434,967 «1471 11,811,503 5 5,562 “ar 2,625,070 OT 1,040,350 12 2,463,147 108 6,284,087 1,474 10,908,108 @ 4016451 5,805, 430 2490710 912 864,480 1 2,479,067 111 ‘S872457 = — 1,404 9/888,908 7 3,827,080 5,561 402 23512022 4 804,080 12 2,720,380 100 7302 1437 10,000,882 8 ° ° 9 ° ° 10 ° ° 1 ° ° 12 ° 0 sum/avg 35,706,304 5572 1,524,585 4st NA NA 7,704,766 12 NA NA NA NA ‘Source: Cty of Ketchikan, Ketchikan Public Utiities. Monthly Revenue Summary reports, January 1994- July 1997, November 1996 interpolated trom October and December HISTU4.WKA Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX E HEATING DEGREE DAY ANALYSIS HISTU4.WK4 YEAR DAYS 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Ketchikan Heating Degree Days ANNUAL JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP oct Nov DEC TOTAL 3 28 KT 30 31 30 KT Kal 30 34 30 31 365 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.0 19.7 278 27.0 NA 38.9 31.4 27.9 26.8 19.6 16.8 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.3 11.0 5.7 10.6 13.0 20.6 28.0 29.8 NA 39.2 30.3 31.0 NA 17.8 9.3 78 8.3 14.6 21.8 26.8 28.8 NA 36.9 30.3 27.2 22.3 16.7 10.8 13.3 8.3 14.2 16.5 27.3 37.1 7922 29.3 29.5 21.5 21.3 13.1 88 28 6.1 97 19.2 274 28.7 6584 47.0 31.1 29.8 23.2 18.1 12.3 8.9 7.0 13.3 19.5 26.7 33.8 8223 36.6 34.5 29.8 22.9 NA 13.7 11.0 87 13.3 20.5 22.1 37.4 NA 29.8 31.8 31.1 24.5 17.9 10.8 5.1 5.0 9.2 18.8 25.7 314 7309 29.7 32.3 31.5 22.8 19.2 13.7 8.8 5.9 10.3 21.7 30.2 NA NA 38.0 28.7 29.6 26.6 21.3 14.0 46 87 14.8 22.0 26.4 30.0 8038 34.1 30.3 30.7 24.41 18.3 11.8 NA NA 12.8 18.0 28.7 31.0 NA 31.6 37.3 29.4 24.3 18.2 10.2 78 6.2 12.8 18.1 22.5 35.4 7686 33.5 30.8 27.3 21.4 16.5 76 5.2 38 10.9 15.8 21.4 29.3 6775 28.6 26.6 24.8 24.2 15.1 84 6.4 7.0 13.0 19.6 26.1 32.8 7059 32.3 33.5 28.3 23.7 14.4 9.7 8.5 74 10.8 18.1 23.2 22.5 7037 23.7 27.2 23.9 21.3 17.3 9.5 8.0 46 12.2 17.4 24.2 277 6578 33.9 28.8 27.9 26.4 18.3 10.2 5.2 45 10.2 21.2 33.3 36.2 7773 27.7 28.3 26.4 23.5 17.0 8.0 8.1 87 12.8 20.3 24.41 27.9 7064 31.7 32.6 27.9 25.7 18.0 11.8 10.7 88 11.3 16.0 21.5 30.8 7483 36.1 27.8 27.3 21.4 17.6 11.0 78 3.9 9.2 19.8 22.4 21.2 6834 22.5 25.1 25.7 18.5 15.4 8.3 6.9 5.5 10.6 18.4 27.4 27.6 6429 30.5 30.8 25.8 20.1 15.6 125 94 45 11.8 16.0 24.2 30.9 7034 30.7 30.2 26.5 21.9 14.7 11.7 10.2 44 12.0 20.8 20.9 40.7 7429 28.1 23.1 23.0 18.5 13.2 9.8 6.0 3.6 11.3 17.2 22.3 29.5 6242 34.1 24.3 30.7 23.2 17.0 11.2 6.0 75 10.0 19.7 25.2 22.2 7022 29.6 41.2 28.2 20.5 14.6 49 5.8 ar 10.2 14.0 19.8 29.6 6675 us 33.3 23.2 22.5 16.5 7.0 78 8.3 8.2 14.0 22.6 29.8 6899 26.3 30.5 25.8 21.0 16.8 11.9 75 58 8.0 14.5 23.5 26.9 6618 25.8 30.7 27.2 23.7 16.9 10.2 7 8.3 11.5 18.7 214 22.0 6788 24.5 27.3 23.7 17.0 13.7 10.6 44 7.3 8.3 14.9 25.3 25.6 6138 27.0 27.5 22.8 18.3 14.7 9.0 5.3 3.9 11.5 17.0 23.5 28.7 6340 22.6 26.2 25.5 21.0 13.1 9.2 3.3 47 8.4 174 27.5 30.1 6334 35.5 25.9 28.0 214 17.0 10.7 9.5 8.3 10.9 17.3 20.0 23.4 6924 25.3 26.4 27.2 21.0 16.7 8.8 66 7.3 9.8 14.2 22.2 28.4 6490 24.7 27.3 26.5 23.7 12.8 13.0 97 67 12.7 18.4 29.2 28.5 7069 28.0 27.3 27.5 24.0 12.5 8.8 9.0 6.9 11.7 20.3 27.8 30.8 7118 347 28.3 24.5 21.6 14.8 10.9 7.3 68 10.3 17.8 23.9 26.0 6882 27.3 32.9 26.6 228 11.5 5.2 37 44 11.8 17.2 24.0 33.9 6689 30.3 33.1 23.1 22.3 14.0 11.4 7.2 7.2 86 17.6 175 33.1 6828 44.2 27.7 25.0 22.8 18.0 65 8.2 6.0 9.4 19.2 30.1 25.5 7369 32.3 30.2 31.3 21.9 16.0 8.6 43 48 9.6 19.7 24.3 7 7121 34.0 28.4 27.7 23.6 15.8 12.5 5.5 6.1 11.5 13.9 22.8 26.0 6906 35.5 25.8 25.8 20.3 12.8 86 5.1 5.9 11.7 16.4 23.9 25.8 6604 4 30.0 27.0 26.5 14.5 12.3 97 3.9 8.5 17.5 18.2 27.7 6981 26.0 28.3 30.1 23.0 18.7 12.2 8.2 10.0 12.0 19.7 32.7 35.9 7796 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Heating Degree Days ANNUAL YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP ocT NOV DEC TOTAL DAYS 3 28 31 30 3 30 Ko] Ki 30 34 30 31 365 1956 30.4 32.2 28.0 20.5 14.0 12.2 6.2 7.2 12.1 21.7 24.7 28.5 7203 1957 34.9 31.3 25.3 22.0 13.5 10.5 8.41 45 67 17.3 22.0 27.8 6786 1958 23.2 25.0 24.3 18.0 12.2 28 1.2 66 11.8 17.8 26.5 25.4 5905 1959 31.2 28.9 26.3 21.0 14.6 94 6.1 78 11.1 16.9 24.8 24.7 6754 1960 27.8 25.4 26.9 19.5 14.9 13.9 8.5 6.9 117 16.3 23.4 24.3 6660 1961 25.2 26.6 24.2 20.7 14.0 10.2 4.0 37 10.8 18.6 26.3 29.2 6471 1962 27.4 28.3 28.8 22.0 17.0 12.3 5.8 6.3 10.8 16.7 20.6 26.1 6735 1963 29.1 21.5 25.5 20.8 14.0 12.5 6.2 3.3 8.3 17.4 29.0 25.9 6483 1964 28.9 25.0 27.8 23.9 18.0 9.5 9.3 10.2 12.3 19.2 26.7 38.4 7578 1965 32.4 28.3 25.0 21.8 18.8 13.1 6.0 5.4 8.5 17.1 26.2 29.0 7025 1966 344 27.3 25.1 21.9 18.3 4138 44 78 11.7 20.1 26.2 26.2 7107 1967 28.8 26.2 29.7 aia 15.8 6.1 78 42 9.4 17.3 24.2 28.5 6671 1968 32.5 26.5 23.1 24.0 12.4 10.5 5.8 7.0 12.4 18.4 22.7 33.7 6950 1969 43.3 29.1 25.8 21.2 13.0 5.0 9.5 10.3 10.6 16.4 21.5 23.1 6947 1970 31.8 22.2 23.0 22.5 18.5 10.5 94 86 14.5 18.9 26.7 33.0 7287 1971 36.2 29.0 29.8 25.2 20.3 14.3 §.2 7.2 13.0 21.8 25.8 35.9 8009 1972 40.0 32.5 277 22 17.0 12.3 6.5 75 13.4 19.7 24.0 31.2 7855 1973 31.9 28.5 25.3 20.0 177 14.8 14.41 10.5 12.8 22.1 “5 29.0 7837 1974 37.0 28.7 29.6 19.8 18.1 14.6 9.6 5.3 74 18.8 24.5 24.2 7213 1975 31.7 35.1 28.3 22.0 16.5 12.3 77 8.3 10.8 19.8 28.7 29.8 7602 1976 29.5 31.8 29.5 22.2 18.7 11.5 8.7 74 att 19.7 23.6 27.4 7310 1977 29.2 23.1 26.4 2i2 15.0 10.8 7.0 15 117 19.6 30.8 37.2 7095 1978 34.0 27.0 26.2 19.5 16.5 ra 7.0 6.2 117 17.4 26.8 31.5 7012 1979 35.1 34.8 24.9 202 17.5 12.0 5.8 3.5 97 16.0 22.8 28.6 7019 1980 35.1 26.5 27.4 21.6 14.4 74 NA 68 11.2 16.1 21.3 31.8 NA 1981 21.3 NA NA NA NA 12.2 48 47 117 19.0 22.2 29.9 NA 1982 38.5 33.9 NA 25.3 NA ae Ta NA 10.8 19.6 29.7 28.6 NA 1983 26.7 23.7 24.5 19.7 15.3 10.5 78 84 14.0 19.2 NA NA NA 1984 26.3 26.1 22.5 22.0 17.6 12.7 9.2 78 126 20.0 28.6 34.0 7267 1985 NA NA NA NA NA NA 6.3 86 13.2 NA NA NA NA 1986 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11.9 15.5 26.4 25.5 NA 1987 27.0 24.5 NA 21.7 16.0 11.7 §.3 48 11.5 174 22.4 26.7 NA 1988 NA NA NA 21.7 16.0 417 9.2 68 12.8 16.8 23.2 29.1 NA 1989 31.4 33.5 28.6 20.5 15.3 9.1 6.2 5.8 10.0 19.4 25.2 22.9 6900 1990 30.8 32.8 24.9 19.7 14.2 10.2 48 5.0 11.3 21.7 30.5 33.3 7245 1991 35.4 25.1 29.4 21.9 16.3 10.6 8.7 7.2 12.0 22.3 22.6 24.9 7186 1992 25.1 26.4 24.7 21.9 16.1 9.3 6.5 67 19.0 21.4 23.3 32.5 7067 1993 32.9 26.3 26.9 20.4 11.5 9.3 49 3.9 9.6 15.8 24.6 24.2 6377 1994 24.7 347 23.7 18.0 14.5 88 5.0 26 10.7 17.8 274 29.5 6570 1995 2742 27.25 2597 1820 12.42 8.87 5.52 8.48 693 18.19 26.65 25.61 6384 1996 37.19 27.86 26.13 20.73 1661 11.73 7.39 765 13.70 19.71 28.37 34.71 AVG 67-96 31.88 2858 2642 2152 15.89 10.47 7.14 653 11.71 18.82 25.64 29.32 STD 67-96 NA AVG -89-95 6818 AVG-22-79 6975 ANNUAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS KETCHIKAN, ALASKA 8500 8000 Nh 7500 iN "Tit Mp so VM AY V Yl | 6000 ELA ae eEREUUUBUUUTSUESUEUUSNESUENEESEVERSENUESTOSTSNESUESTSTESTE NESTS OES UESESEESEESECSNTSTTS 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 SEASONAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS KETCHIKAN IN RECENT YEARS 40 ia 30 z > z 20 > a 6 10 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC #96 ©95 «94 693 © 92 «91 90 | HISTU3.WK4 KETCHIKAN RESIDENTIAL SALES VARIATION BY MONTH 1400 nN °o o Lb A KWH PER MONTH wl f @ o o 600 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 96 © 95 4 94 HISTU3.WK4 RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEAT ANALYSIS REGRESSION RES HOD T EST SALES RES SALES REGRESSION OF HEATING DEGREE DAYS ON RESIDENTIAL SALES 1994 1 6,659,869 766 15,306,956 2 5,499,352 972 2 5,830,996 3,358,160 const 3 5,554,057 735 35,228,058 2,545 x coef HDD 4 4,751,678 540 44,732,524 308 SEx 5 4,390,354 450 5 4,502,190 6 4,776,027 264 = 6 — 4,030,071 519,564 SEy 7 3,915,772 155 7 3,752,653 0.668 Rsq 8 3,816,784 81 = 8 «3,563,297 36 n 9 3,681,802 3219 4,175,143 34 df 0 — 4,200,279 552 10 4,762,556 11 4,849,162 822 115,450,247 12 6,499,398 915 12 5,685,670 1995 1 5,034,680 850 13 5,521,510 2 5,493,580 763 145,300,085 3 5,368,385 805 15 5,406,980 4 5,311,523 546 16 4,747,794 5 5,101,499 385 174,338,030 6 3,965,378 266 «18 = 4,035,161 aaa 471 40 97ea ers RESIDENTIAL SALES AS FUNCTION OF HDD 8 3,704,836 263 204,027,526 8 9 3,876,510 208 = 213,887,545 0 4,056,728 564 224,793,606 11 4,578,074 770 235,317,900 8% ef 12 5,274,717 794 24 5,378,983 z 1996 1 6,277,199 1153-25 «6,292,680 G 2 6,446,226 780 26 5,343,703 z 8 3 5,687,934 810 27 5,419,705 Es‘ 4 5,228,474 622 28 =~ 4,941,223 a 5 4,436,600 515 294,668,896 3B 6 4,207,570 352 304,254,044 we 2 7 4,142,064 29 31 3,940,992 8 3,579,358 237 -32-——«3,961,353 9 3,994,942 41133 4,404,203 0 0 4,239,543 611 344,913,227 0 = 200» 400-— 600.——800.—« 1000-1200 41 5,023,872 851 35 «5,524,055 HEATING DEGREE DAYS IN MONTH 12 6,000,707 1076 36 «6,096,706 1HDD= 1 DEGREE BELOW 65 PER DAY HISTU3.WK4 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX F HISTORICAL KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITY ELECTRIC GENERATION DATA KETCHIKAN HISTORICAL GENERATION DATA PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: MINUS: EQUALS: PLUS : EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: — EQUALS: GROSS GEN _ KWH KWH TOTAL KWH HYDRO- RESIDENTIAL NON-RES TOTAL = NETTO NET GROSS UNE STATION GROSS GEN (SYSDEM) TOKPC TOSPRUCE SYSTEM FROM DIESEL SALES SALES SALES KPC UNACCOUNT DIST Loss USE GEN KPC GENERATION 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "1 12 13 14 15 1971 29,246 28,000 57,246 1972 30,797 30,076 60,873 1973 30,958 35,670 66,628 1974 NA NA NA 1975 32,838 31,329 64,167 1976 35,059 31,913 66,972 1977 35,082 31,610 66,692 1978 36,754 34,372 71,126 1979 37,462 34,752 72,214 1980 39,135 33,079 72,214 (60) 9,344 NA 2,729 4,774 NA 86,025 966 4,844 91,836 5,870 85,966 1981 42,834 38,629 61,463, (7,923) 3,142 NA 3,395 1,435 NA 89,435 800 4,698 94,933 7,421 87,512 1982 43,164 44,211 84,375 (1.358) 9,294 NA 3,741 2.074 NA 99,465 2,276 4,522 106,263 8,156 98,107 1983 44,961 40,872 85,833 (395) 8.168 = NA 3,490 2074 = NA 99,623 2,380 1,969 103,972 4744 99,228 1984 51,292 43,089 94,381 4,073 5,778 = NA 3,734 2986 == NA 106,918 5,964 ° 112,882 1,891 110,991 1985 49,236 45,619 94,855 6,406 7,815 NA 44it 2967 NA 109,502 6.813 ° 116,315 407 115,908 1986 46,795 50,548 97,343 ° 3,927 NA 4,229 2909 NA 109,120 ° ° 109,120 ° 109,120 1987 46,904 51,815 98,719 3,991 3810 NA 5,281 2.781 NA 110,306 3,996 ° 114,302 5 114,207 1988 49,269 59,235 108,504 15,567 4,637 NA 6,245 2.925 NA 122,312 15,590 ° 137,902 23 137,879 1989 52,812 73,492 126,304 4,480 (7,801) NA 6,207 2997 NA 127,426 4,488 ° 131,914 7 131,907 1990 $4,115 73,189 127,304 1,737 (2,885)_NA 7,287 3,080 NA 132,574 9,951 ° 142,525, 2.214 140,311 1991 36,031 72,857 128,888 6,787 7,223 NA 5,485 “3,288 NA 138,895 7,481 0 146,377 oT 145,686 1992 $4,277 68,084 122,361 15,872 5,287 NA 6,237 3,223 NA 137,108 15,954 0 153,062 82 152,980 1993 53,188 68,132 121,320 6,193 11,190 NA 4,184 3,068 NA 140,058 7,146 ° 147,204 953 146,251 1994 58,594 80,534 139,128 8,195 3.471 152,057 3,133 3,206 158,396 150,182 8,851 0 159,003 656 158,347 1995 55,472 80,434 135,906 7,891 8,946 153,570 2.978 3,287 159,835 151,188 10,807 ° 161,995 2,916 159,079 1996 59,360 79,001 138,361 3,662 10,168 153,538 2.919 3.273 159,730 154,722 6.171 ° 160,893 2,510 158,383 1997 (4,724) 84,085 1,654 1,770 87,489 87,489 1,112 ° 88,601 5,836 82,766 APA APA APA SYSGEN AUTHOR SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN SYSGEN L ESTIMATE oz co cM oy K 1 4 H cS BeC+D+E+F SOURCE: Alaska Electric Power Statistic and KPU Monthly System Generation Reports. 1997 is through July. HISTU4.WK4 HISTU4.WK4 60-70 70-80 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1055 1056 1957 1958 19590 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1968 1967 1968 1969 1970 1071 1972 1973 1974 1975 1076 1977 1078 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983 1964 1985 1988 1987 1988 1969 1990 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 CONSTRUCTION OF NON-RESIDENT SALES AND UNACCOUNTED TIME SERIES NETTO NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES NON RES NON RES COM RATIO KETCH UNAC- ————_—_—_______ SALES + SALES + SHARE NON-RES PULP COUNTED COMMER- OTHER UNAC- UNAC- NON-RES SALES/NRS CIAL COUNTED COUNTED SALES + UNAC- 1 2 3 142+3 ~ESTIMATE- COUNTED 3,559 0.048 0.926 6,011 0.964 0.926 o ° 0 0 0 454 580 582 1,272 258 657 666 612 606 07 709 07 738 e168 632 1,620 T,035 3,102 6419 NA NA NA NA NA NA VERIFICATION OF GENERATION DATA PLUS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: COMPARE: DIFF: DIESEL + STATISICAL SALES UNAC- NET PORTION NET STATION PORTION TOTAL HYDRO DIS- COUNTED KPC LINELOSS GENERATION USE LINELOSS GENERATION GENERATION CREPANCY AEA RESIDUAL SYS GEN SYS GEN AEA SYS GEN SYS GEN SYS GEN SYS GEN 1979 1980 72,214 9,344 (60) 2,729 84,227 1,774 86,001 85,966 35 1981 81,463 3,142 (1,923) 3,395 86,077 1,435 87,512 87,512 0 1982 84,375 9,294 (1,358) 3,741 96,052 2,074 98,126 98,107 19 1983 85,833 8,168 (395) 3,490 97,096 2,074 99,170 99,228 (58) 1984 94,384 5,778 4,073 3,734 107,966 2,986 110,952 110,991 (39) 1985 94,855 7,815 6,406 4,411 113,487 2,967 116,454 115,908 546 1986 97,343 3,927 0 4,229 105,499 2,909 108,408 109,120 (712) 1987 98,719 3,510 3,991 5,281 111,501 2,781 114,282 114,297 (15) 1988 108,504 4,637 15,567 6,245 134,953 2,925 137,878 137,879 (1) 1989 126,304 (7,801) 4,480 6,207 129,190 2,997 132,187 131,907 280 1990 127,304 (2,885) 7,737 7,287 139,443 3,080 142,523 140,311 2,212 1991 128,888 1,223 6,791 5,485 142,387 3,298 145,685 145,686 (1) 1992 122,361 5,287 15,872 6,237 149,757 3,223 152,980 152,980 0 1993 121,320 11,130 6,193 138,643 3,068 4,184 145,895 146,251 (356) 1994 139,128 3,471 8,195 150,794 3,206 3,133 157,133 158,347 (1,214) 1995 135,906 8,946 7,891 1,489 154,232 3,287 1,489 159,008 159,079 (71) 1996 138,361 10,168 3,662 1,460 153,651 3,273 1,460 158,383 158,383 0 1997 HISTU4.WK4 HISTU4.WK4 60-70 80-90 90-95 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1962 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1904 1995 1996 1997 KETCHIKAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL en REEEEE=EEE=I CUSTOMERS CUSTOMERS Borough Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment Real (96) Real (96) axa axa Population Total Lumber Net Lumber, = L.P.W+ —NetL.PW+ Income —‘Total Heating BOROUGH BOROUGH Pulp.Wood Pulp,\Wood Multiplier == Multiplier = Per Cap = Income == Degree Days. POPULATION EMPLOYMENT 1.5% 6,925 1.0% NA 20% 4.0% 24% 42% NA 0.393 0.112 1.3% 0.8% 63% 1.8% 6717 0.368 0.094 7,369 7.121 6,908 6,604 6,981 7,798 7.203 6,788 5,905 6.754 8774 6,660 0.205 6477 ERR 6.735 ERR 6483 ERR 7,578 ERR 9,000 7,025 0.208 7,107 ERR 6671 ERR 6,950 ERR 11,861 $15,766 $156.80 6,947 0.250 $16,887 __ $170.59 7,287 0.301 $17,523 $105.35 8,008 CAT $19,711 $206.82 7,855 0319 10,800 $22,948 $244.48 7.837 0.340 10,700 $22,995 $253.4 7.213 NA 10,900 $20,210 $232.80 7,602 0.352 11,200 $22,644 $258.17 7,310 0.359 11,400 $22,828 $258.85 7,095 0,386 17,800 $23,378 $283.90 7,012 0.372 11,800 $24,304 $270.50 7,019 0.372 11,316 4,123 5,925 $25,743 $295.59 NA 0.304 0.001 12,042 aS 3,976 , $270.77 NA 0379 OT 12,268 871 6.232 $23,763 $301.37 NA 0.389 0.113 12,459 781 6.541 $24,476 $331.93 NA 0.406 0.110 12.438 725 6.489 $23,353 $310.41 7,287 0414 0.100 12,623 919 6.744 $25,690 $344.77 NA 0.399 0.124 12,729 898 7,230 $27,047 $357.59 NA 0.394 0.117 12,793 997 7,883 $28,480 $369.20 NA 0.395 0.107 12,594 948 8426 $20,112 $387.74 NA 0.402 0.130 13,280 1,098 8,582 $30,513 $413.95 8,900 0.381 0.008 13,828, 10,397 4.427 8,970 $31453 $438.82 7,245 0.372 0.101 14,267 1,167 6,725 SHIT BW 7,186 0.384 0.005 14,538 9,874 1,009 8,865 $90,152 $426.95 7,067 0,362 0.007 14,535 10,258 1,057 9,201 $30,722 $437.17 6,377 0.364 0.004 14,638 10,419 1,040 9,379 $30,771 $440.09 6,570 0.368 0.004 14.771 10,733 1,030 9,703 $31,450 $451.13 6,384 0371 0.092 14,701 903 14,599 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX G REGRESSIONS USED IN LOAD PROJECTIONS Double Log Regession of Residential Customers on Population 1975 to 1995 -0.51 const 0.95 x coef 0.11 SEx 0.05 SEy 0.80 Rsq 21n 19 df RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS | 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 feactual estimate HISTU4.WK4 Double Log Regression of Residential Use Per Customer on Real Per Capita Income 1975 to 1995 3.97 const 0.51 x coef 0.08 SEx 0.05 SEy 0.68 Rsq 21n 19 df Log Trend Regression of Residential Use Per Customer on Time 1975 to 1995 -15.13 const 0.01 x coef 0.00 SEx 0.04 SEy 0.81 Rsq 21n 19 df growth rate 1.2% HISTU4.WK4 Double Log Regression of Non-Residential Sales and Unaccounted for on Non-Timber Employment 1985 to 1995 -0.88 const 1.33 x coef 0.09 SEx 0.06 SEy 0.94 Rsq 16 n 14 df KETCHIKAN INDICES | Z 3 | nu 16 at a kx 1d x 1980 1 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 aa Non-Timber Employment ¢ Non-Residential Use | HISTU4.WK4 NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES AND UNACCOUNTED FOR 80 _— 60 . pe 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 m ACTUAL «& ESTIMATE 100 Thousands NON-RESIDENT SALES AND UNACCOUNTED FOR 120 100 80 Thousands 60 a Pili eneellerey 1 Lan 1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 4a ACTUAL ~ BASE CASE FORECAST & ESTIMATE HISTU4.WK4 HISTU4.WK4 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES AND UNACCOUNTED FOR BASE CASE REGRESSION ACTUAL FORECAST ~ ESTIMATE 42,423 42,803 41,771 43,293 50,505 45,775 49,040 48,816 48,867 48,301 53,434 50,840 54,475 55,766 55,325 62,557 63,872 68,348 65,691 70,035 70,304 74,274 74,080 71,590 73,371 73,121 79,262 76,827 84,005 78,809 89,380 89,380 82,447 89,169 89,169 85,230 84,215 83,832 84,387 85,602 86,860 88,019 89,108 90,212 91,329 92,462 93,609 94,772 95,950 97,143 98,352 99,578 100,819 102,077 103,351 104,642 105,950 107,276 108,619 109,979 111,358 112,755 114,170 115,604 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX H BASE CASE PROJECTION KETCHIKAN ECONOMIC INDICATOR PROJECTIONS RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS CUSTOMERS Borough Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment Real (96) as % of as % of Population Total Lumber Net Lumber, L,P,W+ Net L,P,W + Income Total Heating BOROUGH BOROUGH Pulp,Wood = Pulp, Wood Multiplier Multiplier Per Cap Income Degree Days POPULATION EMPLOYMENT BASE CASE GR feuds ae TOs ql 1995 14,774 9,703 $31,450 1996 14,701 9,697 1,726 8,875 $31,450 1997 14,599 10,109 425 9,684 1,109 9,000 $31,450 1998 14,745 9,894 300 9,594 804 9,090 $31,450 1999 14,892 9,885 325 9,560 704 9,181 $31,450 2000 15,041 10,009 400 9,609 736 9,273 $31,450 2001 15,192 10,117 400 9,717 751 9,365 $37,450 2002 15,344 10,228 400 9,828 769 9,459 $31,450 2003 15,497 10,330 400 9,930 776 9,554 $31,450 2004 15,652 10,425 400 10,025 776 9,649 $31,450 2005 15,809 10,522 400 10,122 776 9,746 $31,450 2006 15,967 10,619 400 10,219 776 9,843 $31,450 2007 16,126 10,718 400 10,318 776 9,942 $31,450 2008 16,288 10,817 400 10,417 776 10,041 $31,450 2009 16,451 10,918 400 10,518 776 10,141 $31,450 2010 16,615 11,019 400 10,619 776 10,243 $31,450 2011 16,781 11,121 400 10,721 776 10,345 $31,450 2012 16,949 11,225 400 10,825 776 10,449 $31,450 2013 17,118 11,329 400 10,929 776 10,553 $31,450 2014 17,290 11,435 400 11,035 776 10,659 $31,450 2015 17,463 11,542 400 11,142 776 10,765 $31,450 2016 17,637 11,649 400 11,249 776 10,873 $31,450 2017 17,814 11,758 400 11,358 776 10,982 $31,450 2018 17,992 11,868 400 11,468 776 11,092 $31,450 2019 18,172 11,979 400 11,579 776 11,202 $31,450 2020 18,353 12,091 400 11,691 776 11,314 $31,450 2021 18,537 12,204 400 11,804 776 11,428 $31,450 2022 18,722 12,318 400 11,918 776 11,542 $31,450 2023 18,909 12,434 400 12,034 776 11,657 $31,450 2024 19,099 12,550 400 12,150 776 11,774 $31,450 2025 19,290 12,668 400 12,268 776 11,892 $31,450 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Projected Electricity Sales and Generation RESIDENTIAL SALES COMMERCIAL SALES OTHER SALES Sales # Charge Sales/Cust Sales # Charge Sales/Cust Sales # Charge Sales/Cust (MWH) Cust's /kwh (kwh) (MWH) Cust's ‘kwh (kwh) (MWH) Cust's /kwh_~—s (kwh) BASE CASE GR 210% = i 1995 5,476 77,468 2,966 1996 5,564 76,834 2,167 1997 56,560 5,600 10,100 75,369 2,780 1998 55,440 5,600 9,900 74,472 2,746 1999 56,000 5,600 10,000 74,133 2,734 2000 56,560 5,600 10,100 74,624 2,752 2001 57,120 5,600 10,200 75,698 2,792 2002 58,257 5,656 10,300 76,811 2,833 2003 58,839 5,713 10,300 77,836 2,871 2004 59,428 5,770 10,300 78,799 2,906 2005 60,022 5,827 10,300 79,775 2,942 2006 60,622 5,886 10,300 80,763 2,978 2007 61,228 5,945 10,300 81,765 3,015 2008 61,841 6,004 10,300 82,779 3,053 2009 62,459 6,064 10,300 83,807 3,091 2010 63,084 6,125 10,300 84,849 3,129 2011 63,715 6,186 10,300 85,904 3,168 2012 64,352 6,248 10,300 86,974 3,208 2013 64,995 6,310 10,300 88,057 3,247 2014 65,645 6,373 10,300 89,155 3,288 2015 66,302 6,437 10,300 90,267 3,329 2016 66,965 6,501 10,300 91,394 3,371 2017 67,634 6,566 10,300 92,536 3,413 2018 68,311 6,632 10,300 93,693 3,455 2019 68,994 6,698 10,300 94,865 3,499 2020 69,684 6,765 10,300 96,052 3,542 2021 70,381 6,833 10,300 97,256 3,587 2022 71,084 6,904 10,300 98,475 3,632 2023 71,795 6,970 40,300 99,710 3,677 2024 72,513 7,040 10,300 100,962 3,723 2025 73,238 = =7,111 10,300 102,230 3,770 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Projected Electricity Sales and Generation (PART 2.) TOTAL SALES NET GENERATION PEAK INSTALLED CAPACITY RATIO GENERATION Sales # Charge (MWh) DEMAND (KW) SALES TO MINUS. (MW#) Cust's /kwh hydro oil Total (MW) hydro diesel GENERATION SALES BASE CASE GR iia ei ae 1995 135,906 152,743 1996 138,265 152,095 1997 134,709 133,691 1.008 (1,017) 1998 132,659 139,655 0.950 6,997 1999 132,867 139,832 0.950 6,965 2000 133,936 140,947 0.950 7,011 2001 135,610 142,722 0.950 7,112 2002 137,900 145,117 0.950 7,216 2003 139,546 146,859 0.950 7,313 2004 141,133 148,536 0.950 7,403 2005 142,739 150,234 0.950 7,495 2006 144,364 151,952 0.950 7,588 2007 146,008 153,690 0.950 7,682 2008 147,673 155,450 0.950 7,777 2009 149,357 157,231 0.950 7,874 2010 151,062 159,033 0.950 7,972 2014 152,787 160,858 0.950 8,071 2012 154,533 162,704 0.950 8,171 2013 156,300 164,573 0.950 8,273 2014 158,088 166,464 0.950 8,376 2015 159,898 168,378 0.950 8,481 2016 161,729 170,316 0.950 8,587 2017 163,583 172,276 0.950 8,694 2018 165,459 174,261 0.949 8,802 2019 167,357 176,270 0.949 8,913 2020 169,278 178,302 0.949 9,024 2021 171,223 180,360 0.949 9,137 2022 173,191 182,442 0.949 9,252 2023 175,182 184,550 0.949 9,368 2024 177,198 186,683 0.949 9,485 2025 179,238 188,843 0.949 9,605 HISTU4.WK4 HISTU4.WK4 GR 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 PROJECTION OF NON-RESIDENT SALES AND UNACCOUNTED NET TO NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES NON RES NON RES COM RATIO KETCH ~~ UNAC- SALES + SALES + SHARE NON-RES PULP COUNTED COMMER- OTHER UNAC- UNAC- NON-RES SALES/NRS CIAL COUNTED COUNTED SALES + UNAC- 41 2 3 14+2+3 -ESTIMATE- COUNTED BASE CASE 89,380 0.963 0.900 89,169 0.973 0.886 85,230 0.964 0.917 84,215 0.964 0.917 83,832 0.964 0.917 84,387 0.964 0.917 85,602 0.964 0.917 86,860 0.964 0.917 88,019 0.964 0.917 89,108 0.964 0.917 90,212 0.964 0.917 91,329 0.964 0.917 92,462 0.964 0.917 93,609 0.964 0.917 94,772 0.964 0.917 95,950 0.964 0.917 97,143 0.964 0.917 98,352 0.964 0.917 99,578 0.964 0.917 100,819 0.964 0.917 102,077 0.964 0.917 103,351 0.964 0.917 104,642 0.964 0.917 105,950 0.964 0.917 107,276 0.964 0.917 108,619 0.964 0.917 109,979 0.964 0.917 111,358 0.964 0.917 112,755 0.964 0.917 114,170 0.964 0.917 115,604 0.964 0.917 KETCHIKAN PROJECTED GENERATION DATA EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: MINUS: EQUALS : PLUS: EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS : GROSS GEN KWH KWH TOTAL KWH HYDRO- RESIDENTIAL NON-RES TOTAL NET TO NET GROSS LINE STATION GROSS GEN (SYSDEM) TOKPC TOSPRUCE SYSTEM FROM DIESEL SALES SALES SALES KPC ~=UNACCOUNT OIsT Loss USE GEN KPC GENERATION 1 2 3 4 5 6 T 8 9 10 W 12 13 14 15 BASE CASE 1995 35.472 80,434 135,006 ——ST,8OT 8046 152,743 759,008 1996 59,264 79,001 138,265 3,662 10,168 152,095 2,919 3,273 158,287 1997 56,560 78,149 134,709 (8,098) 7,081 133,691 2,674 2,674 139,039 1998 $5,440 77,219 132,659 0 6,997 139,655 2,793 2,793 145,242 1999 $6,000 76,867 132,867 0 6,965 139,832 2,797 2,797 145,425 2000 56.560 77,376 133,936 oO 7.011 140,947 2,819 2,819 146,584 2001 $7,120 78,490 135,610 0 TAIZ 142,722 2,854 2,854 148,430 2002 58,257 79,643 137,900 O 7,216 145,117 2,902 2,902 150,921 2003 $8,839 80,707 139,546 ° 7,313 146,859 2,937 2,937 152,733 2004 59,428 81,705 141,133 oO 7,403 148,536 2,971 2,971 154,478 2005 60,022 82,717 142,739 O 7,495 150,234 3,005 3,005 156,243 2006 60,622 83,742 144,364 O 7,588 151,952 3,039 3,039 158,030 2007 61,228 84,780 146,008 ° 7,682 153,690 3,074 3,074 159,838 2008 61,841 85,832 147,673 O 177 155,450 3,109 3,109 161,668 2009 62,459 86,898 149,357 o 7,874 157,231 3,145 3,145 163,520 2010 63,084 87,978 151,062 oO 7,972 159,033 3,181 3,181 165,395 2011 3,715 89,072 152,787 0 8,071 160,858 3,217 21 167,292 2012 64,352 90,181 154,533 0 8,171 162,704 3,254 3,254 169,212 2013 64,995 91,305 156,300 0 8,273 164,573 3,291 3,291 171,156 2014 65,645 92,443 158,088 ° 8,376 166,464 3,329 3,329 173,123 2015 66,302 93,596 159,898 0 8.481 168,378 3,368 3,368 175,113 2016 66,965 94,764 161,729 0 8,587 170,316 3,406 3,406 177,128 2017 67,634 95,948 163,583 0 8,694 172,276 3,446 3,446 179,167 2018 68,311 97,148 165,459 0 8,802 174,261 3,485 3,485 181,231 2019 68,994 98,363 167,357 0 8.913 176,270 3,525 3,525 183,320 2020 69.684 99,595 169,278 oO 9,024 178,302 3,566 3,566 185,435 2021 70,387 "100,842 171,223 0 9,137 760,360 ‘3,607 SOOT 187,574 2022 71,084 102,106 173,191 0 9,252 182,442 3,649 3,649 189,740 2023 71,795 103,387 175,182 0 9,368 184,550 3,691 3,691 191,932 2024 72,513 104,685 177,198 0 9,485 186,683 3,734 3734 194,151 2025 73,238 106,000 179,238 0 9,605 188,843 3,777 3,777 196,396 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX I HIGH CASE PROJECTION KETCHIKAN ECONOMIC INDICATOR PROJECTIONS ‘Real (96) Real (96) RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS CUSTOMERS Borough Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment as % of as % of Population Total Lumber Net Lumber, L,P,W+ Net L,P,W + Income Total Heating BOROUGH BOROUGH Pulp,Wood — Pulp,Wood Multiplier Multiplier Per Cap Income Degree Days POPULATION EMPLOYMENT HIGH CASE GR iiges20%ines Haan DOGS 1995 14,771 9,703 1996 14,701 10,600 9,697 1,726 8,875 $31,450 1997 14,599 10,109 9,684 1,109 9,000 $31,450 1998 14,891 9,919 9,669 739 9,180 $31,450 1999 15,189 10,020 9,720 656 9,364 $31,450 2000 15,493 10,335 9,885 784 9,551 $31,450 2001 15,802 10,693 10,143 951 9,742 $31,450 2002 16,118 10,953 10,403 1,016 9,937 $31,450 2003 16,441 11,187 10,637 1,051 10,135 $31,450 2004 16,770 11,399 10,849 1,061 10,338 $31,450 2005 17,105 11,606 11,056 1,061 10,545 $31,450 2006 17,447 11,817 11,267 1,061 10,756 $31,450 2007 17,796 12,032 11,482 1,061 10,971 $31,450 2008 18,152 12,252 11,702 1,061 11,190 $31,450 2009 18,515 12,475 11,925 1,061 11,414 $31,450 2010 18,885 12,704 12,154 1,061 11,642 $31,450 2011 19,263 12,937 12,387 1,061 11,875 $37,450 2012 19,648 13,174 12,624 1,061 12,113 $31,450 2013 20,041 13,416 12,866 1,061 12,355 $31,450 2014 20,442 13,663 13,113 1,061 12,602 $31,450 2015 20,851 13,915 13,365 1,061 12,854 $31,450 2016 21,268 14,173 13,623 1,061 13,111 $31,450 2017 21,693 14,435 13,885 1,061 13,374 $31,450 2018 22,127 14,702 14,152 1,061 13,641 $31,450 2019 22,570 14,975 14,425 1,061 13,914 $31,450 2020 23,021 15,253 14,703 1,061 14,192 $31,450 2021 23,482 15,537 14,987 1,061 14,476 $31,450 2022 23,951 15,827 15,277 1,061 14,765 $31,450 2023 24,430 16,122 15,572 1,061 15,061 $31,450 2024 24,919 16,423 15,873 1,061 15,362 $31,450 2025 25,417 16,730 16,180 1,061 15,669 $31,450 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Projected Electricity Sales and Generation Saasssssmssssssssssssessssssss ssssssssmesssssessssssasssssss: sssssssemeess25—====s=—==22==22: RESIDENTIAL SALES COMMERCIAL SALES OTHER SALES Sales # Charge Sales/Cust Sales # Charge Sales/Cust Sales # Charge Sales/Cust (MWH) Cust's —/kwh (kwh) (MWH) Cust's — /kwh (kwh) (MWH) Cust's = /kwh (kwh) HIGH CASE GR Wie 2 Hina Hans aie 1995 55,472 5,476 77,468 2,966 1996 59,264 5,561 10,657 76,834 2,167 1997 56,560 5,600 10,100 75,369 2,780 1998 56,000 5,600 10,000 75,219 2,774 1999 56,840 5,600 10,150 75,730 2,793 2000 58,834 5,712 10,300 77,381 2,854 2001 60,310 5,826 10,352 79,989 2,950 2002 61,824 5,943 10,403 82,633 3,047 2003 63,376 6,062 10,455 85,030 3,136 2004 64,967 6,183 10,508 87,227 3,217 2005 66,597 6,307 10,560 89,376 3,296 2006 68,269 6,433 10,613 91,584 3,377 2007 69,982 6,561 10,666 93,845 3,461 2008 71,739 6,693 10,719 96,168 3,547 2009 73,540 6,826 10,773 98,553 3,635 2010 75,385 _ 6,963 10,827 101,000 3,725 2011 77,278 = 7,102 10,881 103,512 3,817 2012 79,217 = 7,244 10,935 106,090 3,913 2013 81,206 7,389 10,990 108,737 4,010 2014 83,244 7,537 11,045 111,453 4,110 2015 85,333 7,688 11,100 114,241 4,213 2016 87,475 7,841 11,156 117,103 4,319 2017 89,671 7,998 11,211 120,040 4,427 2018 91,922 8,158 11,267 123,055 4,538 2019 94,229 8,321 11,324 126,149 4,652 2020 96,594 8,488 11,380 129,326 4,769 2021 99,018 8,657 11,437 132,586 4,890 2022 101,504 8,831 11,495 135,932 5,013 2023 104,052 9,007 11,552 139,367 5,140 2024 106,663 9,187 11,610 142,893 5,270 2025 109,341 9,371 11,668 146,512 5,403 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Projected Electricity Sales and Generation (PART 2.) TOTAL SALES NET GENERATION PEAK INSTALLED CAPACITY RATIO GENERATION Sales # Charge (MW#) DEMAND (KW) SALES TO MINUS (MWh) Cust's /kwh hydro oil Total (MW) hydro diesel GENERATION SALES HIGH CASE GR Hace 1995 135,906 152,743 1996 138,265 152,095 1997 134,709 133,691 1998 133,993 141,060 1999 135,362 142,477 2000 139,068 146,338 2001 143,249 150,764 2002 147,505 155,268 2003 151,542 159,531 2004 155,410 163,605 2005 159,269 167,666 2006 163,227 171,832 2007 167,288 176,105 2008 171,454 180,489 2009 175,727 184,986 2010 180,110 189,599 2011 184,607 194,332 2012 189,220 199,188 2013 193,953 204,169 2014 198,807 209,278 2015 203,788 214,521 2016 208,897 219,899 2017 214,138 225,416 2018 219,515 231,076 2019 225,031 236,882 2020 230,689 242,839 2021 236,494 248,951 2022 242,449 255,220 2023 248,559 261,652 2024 254,826 268,251 2025 261,256 275,021 HISTU4.WK4 HISTU4.WK4 GR 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 PROJECTION OF NON-RESIDENT SALES AND UNACCOUNTED NET TO NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES NON RES NON RES COM RATIO KETCH — UNAC- SALES + SALES + SHARE — NON-RES PULP COUNTED COMMER- OTHER UNAC- UNAC- NON-RES SALES/NRS CIAL COUNTED COUNTED SALES + UNAC- 1 2 3 14243 -ESTIMATE- COUNTED HIGH CASE 89,380 0.963 0.900 89,169 0.973 0.886 85,230 0.964 0.917 85,060 0.964 0.917 85,637 0.964 0.917 87,504 0.964 0.917 90,454 0.964 0.917 93,444 0.964 0.917 96,155 0.964 0.917 98,639 0.964 0.917 101,069 0.964 0.917 103,563 0.964 0.917 106,122 0.964 0.917 108,750 0.964 0.917 111,446 0.964 0.917 114,214 0.964 0.917 117,055 0.964 0.917 119,970 0.964 0.917 122,963 0.964 0.917 126,035 0.964 0.917 129,187 0.964 0.917 132,423 0.964 0.917 135,745 0.964 0.917 139,154 0.964 0.917 142,653 0.964 0.917 146,245 0.964 0.917 149,932 0.964 0.917 153,716 0.964 0.917 157,601 0.964 0.917 161,588 0.964 0.917 165,680 0.964 0.917 KETCHIKAN PROJECTED GENERATION DATA EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: MINUS: EQUALS: PLUS : EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: GROSS GEN _ KWH KWH TOTAL KWH HYDRO- RESIDENTIAL NON-RES TOTAL =NETTO NET GROSS LINE STATION GROSS GEN (SYSDEM) TOKPC TOSPRUCE SYSTEM FROM DIESEL SALES SALES SALES KPC UNACCOUNT DIST Loss USE GEN KPC GENERATION 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "1 12 13 4 15 HIGH CASE 1995 88,472 80,434 135,906 7.897 6.048 182,743 2978 3,287 159, 1996 59,264 79,001 138,265 3,662 10,168 152,095 2,919 3,273 158,287 1997 56,560 78,149 134,709 (8,098) 7,081 133,691 2.674 2.674 139,039 1998 56,000 77,993 133,993 ° 7,067 141,060 2,821 2,821 146,703 1999 56,840 78,522 135,362 0 7115 142,477 2,850 2,850 148,176 2000 58,834 80,234 139,068 ° 7,270 146,338 2.927 2.927 152,191 2001 60,310 62,939 143,249 0 7,515 150,764 3,015 3,015 156,795 2002 61,824 85,681 147,505 ° 7,763 185,268 3,105 3,105 161,479 2003 63,376 88,166 151,542 0 7,989 189,531 3,191 3,191 165,912 2004 64,967 90,444 155,410 0 8195 163,605 3,272 3,272 170,150 2005 66,597 92,672 159,269 0 8,397 167,666 3,353 3,353 174,373 2006 68,269 94,959 163,227 0 8,604 171,832 3.437 3.437 178,705 2007 69,982 97,306 167,288 0 8817 176,105 3,522 3,522 183,149 2008 71,739 99,715 171,454 0 9035 180,489 3,610 3,610 187,708 2009 73,540 102,187 175,727 0 9.259 184,986 3,700 3,700 192,385 2010 75,385 104,725 ‘180,110 o 9.489 189,599 3,792 3,792 197,183 2011 — 77,278 107,330 184,607 0 9,725 194,332 3,887 3,887 202,106 2012 79,217 110,003 189,220 ° 9,967 199, 188 3,984 3,984 207,155 2013 81,208 = 112.747 193,953 ° 10,216 204,169 4,083 4,083 212,335 2014 83,244 «=—'115,563 ‘198,807 ° 10,471 209,278 4,186 4,186 217,650 2015 85,333 118,454 203,788 0 10,733 214,521 4,290 4,290 223,101 2016 87,475 121,421 208,897 0 11,002 219,899 4,398 4,398 228,694 2017 89,671 124,467 214,138 ° 11,278 225,416 4,508 4,508 234,432 2018 91,922 127,593 219,515 ° 11,561 231,078 4,622 4,622 240,319 2019 94,229 130,802 225,031 0 11,852 236,882 4738 4738 246,358 2020 96,594 134,095 230,689 ° 12,150 242,839 4,857 4.857 252,553 2021 99,018 137,476 236 A904 0 12,457 248,951 4,979 4,979 258,509" 2022 101,504 140,946 242,449 ° 12,771 255,220 5,104 5,104 265,429 2023 104,052 144,507 (248,559 ° 13,094 261,652 5,233 5,233 272,119 2024 106,663 148,163 (254,826 0 13.425 268,251 5,365 5,365 278,981 2025 109,341 151,916 261,256 0 13,765 275,021 5,500 5,500 286,022 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Public Utilities Electric Load Growth Study KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ELECTRIC LOAD GROWTH STUDY APPENDIX J LOW CASE PROJECTION KETCHIKAN ECONOMIC INDICATOR PROJECTIONS RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL aa CUSTOMERS CUSTOMERS Borough Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment Real (96) —_ Real (96) as % of as % of Population Total Lumber Net Lumber, L,P,W+ Net L,P,W + Income Total Heating BOROUGH BOROUGH Pulp,Wood = Pulp, Wood Multiplier Multiplier Per Cap Income Degree Days POPULATION EMPLOYMENT 1996 14,701 10,600 903 1,726 8,875 $31,450 1997 14,599 10,109 425 9,684 1,109 9,000 $31,450 1998 14,672 9,719 200 9,519 674 9,045 $31,450 1999 14,745 9,666 250 9,416 576 9,090 $31,450 2000 14,819 9,504 150 9,354 369 9,136 $31,450 2001 14,893 9,508 150 9,358 326 9,181 $31,450 2002 14,968 9,538 150 9,388 311 9,227 $31,450 2003 15,042 9,575 150 9,425 301 9,273 $31,450 2004 15,118 9,621 150 9,471 301 9,320 $31,450 2005 15,193 9,668 150 9,518 301 9,366 $31,450 2006 15,269 9,714 150 9,564 301 9,413 $31,450 2007 15,346 9,761 150 9,611 301 9,460 $31,450 2008 15,422 9,809 150 9,659 301 9,508 $31,450 2009 15,499 9,856 150 9,706 301 9,555 $31,450 2010 15,577 9,904 150 9,754 301 9,603 $31,450 2011 15,655 9,952 150 9,802 301 9,651 $31,450 2012 15,733 10,000 150 9,850 301 9,699 $31,450 2013 15,812 10,049 150 9,899 301 9,748 $31,450 2014 15,891 10,098 150 9,948 301 9,796 $31,450 2015 15,970 10,147 150 9,997 301 9,845 $31,450 2016 16,050 10,196 150 10,046 301 9,895 $31,450 2017 16,130 10,245 150 10,095 301 9,944 $31,450 2018 16,211 10,295 150 10,145 301 9,994 $31,450 2019 16,292 10,345 150 10,195 301 10,044 $31,450 2020 16,374 10,395 150 10,245 301 10,094 $31,450 2021 16,455 10,446 150 10,296 301 10,144 $31,450 2022 16,538 10,496 150 10,346 301 10,195 $31,450 2023 16,620 10,547 150 10,397 301 10,246 $31,450 2024 16,703 10,599 150 10,449 301 10,297 $31,450 2025 16,787 10,650 150 10,500 301 10,349 $31,450 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Projected Electricity Sales and Generation SassssssmsssssssssssssSsssssss2 sssssssssssseseesssssassssses: ssassss2—======—========52=2===: RESIDENTIAL SALES COMMERCIAL SALES OTHER SALES Sales # Charge Sales/Cust Sales # Charge Sales/Cust Sales # Charge Sales/Cust (MWH) Cust's = /kwh (kwh) (MWH) Cust's = /kwh (kwh) (MWH) Cust's ‘kwh (kwh) LOW CASE GR 0.0%: 1995 10,130 2,966 1996 ' 10,657 76,834 2,167 1997 56,560 5,600 10,100 75,369 2,780 1998 56,000 5,600 10,000 73,727 2,719 1999 55,440 5,600 9,900 72,714 2,682 2000 55,440 5,600 9,900 72,104 2,659 2001 55,440 5,600 9,900 72,132 2,660 2002 55,440 5,600 9,900 72,438 2,671 2003 55,440 5,600 9,900 72,795 2,685 2004 56,000 5,600 10,000 73,254 2,702 2005 56,560 5,600 10,100 73,716 2,719 2006 57,120 5,600 10,200 74,181 2,736 2007 57,968 5,628 10,300 74,649 2,753 2008 58,258 5,656 10,300 75,120 2,770 2009 58,550 5,684 10,300 75,595 2,788 2010 58,842 5,713 10,300 76,072 . 2,805 2011 59,136 5,741 10,300 76,553 2,823 2012 59,432 5,770 10,300 77,037 2,841 2013 59,729 5,799 10,300 77,524 2,859 2014 60,028 5,828 10,300 78,014 2,877 2015 60,328 5,857 10,300 78,508 2,895 2016 60,630 5,886 10,300 79,005 2,914 2017 60,933 5,916 10,300 79,505 2,932 2018 61,238 5,945 10,300 80,008 2,951 2019 61,544 5,975 10,300 80,515 2,969 2020 61,851 6,005 10,300 81,025 2,988 2021 62,161 6,035 10,300 81,539 3,007 2022 62,472 6,065 10,300 82,056 3,026 2023 62,784 6,096 10,300 82,576 3,045 2024 63,098 6,126 10,300 83,100 3,065 2025 63,413 6,157 10,300 83,627 3,084 HISTU4.WK4 Ketchikan Projected Electricity Sales and Generation (PART 2.) INSTALLED CAPACITY RATIO GENERATIO! TOTAL SALES NET GENERATION PEAK Sales # Charge (MWH) DEMAND (KW) SALESTO = MINUS (MWH) Cust's. kwh hydro oil Total (MW) hydro diesel GENERATION SALES LOW CASE 1995 135,906 152,743 1996 138,265 152,095 0.909 13,830 1997 134,709 133,691 1.008 (4,017) 1998 132,446 139,373 0.950 6,927 1999 130,836 137,667 0.950 6,832 2000 130,200 136,974 0.954 6,774 2001 130,233 137,009 0.951 6,777 2002 130,549 137,354 0.950 6,806 2003 130,919 137,758 0.950 6,839 2004 131,955 138,837 0.950 6,882 2005 132,994 139,920 0.951 6,926 2006 134,037 141,006 0.951 6,969 2007 135,370 142,384 0.951 7,013 2008 136,149 143,207 0.951 7,058 2009 136,932 144,034 0.951 7,102 2010 137,720 144,867 0.951 7,147 2011 138,513 145,705 0.951 7,192 2012 139,310 146,548 0.951 7,238 2013 140,112 147,396 0.951 7,283 2014 140,919 148,249 0.951 7,329 2015 141,734 149,107 0.951 7,376 2016 142,548 149,971 0.951 7,423 2017 143,370 150,839 0.950 7,470 2018 144,197 151,713 0.950 7,517 2019 145,028 152,593 0.950 7,564 2020 145,865 153,477 0.950 7,612 2021 146,707 154,367 0.950 7,661 2022 147,553 155,263 0.950 7,709 2023 148,405 156,163 0.950 7,758 2024 149,262 157,070 0.950 7,807 2025 150,125 157,984 0.950 7,857 HISTU4.WK4 PROJECTION OF NON-RESIDENT SALES AND UNACCOUNTED NET TO NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES NON RES NON RES COM RATIO KETCH — UNAC- SALES + SALES + SHARE NON-RES PULP COUNTED COMMER- OTHER UNAC- UNAC- NON-RES SALES/NRS CIAL COUNTED COUNTED SALES + UNAC- 1 2 3 14243 -ESTIMATE- COUNTED LOW CASE GR 1995 is 1996 89,1 0.973 0.886 1997 85,230 0.964 0.917 1998 83,373 0.964 0.917 1999 82,227 0.964 0.917 2000 81,534 0.964 0.917 2001 81,569 0.964 0.917 2002 81,914 0.964 0.917 2003 82,318 0.964 0.917 2004 82,837 0.964 0.917 2005 83,360 0.964 0.917 2006 83,886 0.964 0.917 2007 84,415 0.964 0.917 2008 84,948 0.964 0.917 2009 85,485 0.964 0.917 2010 86,025 0.964 0.917 2011 86,568 0.964 0.917 2012 87,116 0.964 0.917 2013 87,666 0.964 0.917 2014 88,221 0.964 0.917 2015 88,779 0.964 0.917 2016 89,341 0.964 0.917 2017 89,906 0.964 0.917 2018 90,476 0.964 0.917 2019 91,049 0.964 0.917 2020 91,626 0.964 0.917 2021 92,206 0.964 0.917 2022 92,791 0.964 0.917 2023 93,379 0.964 0.917 2024 93,972 0.964 0.917 2025 94,568 0.964 0.917 HISTU4.WK4 KETCHIKAN PROJECTED GENERATION DATA EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: MINUS: EQUALS : PLUS: EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: PLUS: PLUS: EQUALS: GROSS GEN KWH KWH TOTAL KWH HYORO- RESIDENTIAL NON-RES TOTAL NET TO NET GROSS LINE STATION GROSS GEN (SYSDEM) TOKPC TOSPRUCE SYSTEM FROM DIESEL SALES SALES SALES KPC UNACCOUNT DIST Loss USE GEN KPC GENERATION 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 12 13 4 15 LOW CASE GR fae See : ee Se 1995 35,472 1887 8048482, 743 2976 267 188, 1996 59,264 79,001 3,662 10,168 152,095 2,919 3,273 158,287 1997 $6,560 78,149 (8,098) 7,081 133,691 2,674 2.674 139,039 1998 $6,000 76,446 0 6,927 139,373 2,787 2,787 144,948 1999 55,440 75,396 O 6,832 137,667 2,753 2,753 143,174 2000 $5,440 74,760 0 6774 136,974 2,739 2,739 142,453 2001 $5,440 74,793 0 6.777 137,009 2,740 2,740 142,490 2002 $5,440 75,109 O 6,806 137,354 2,747 2,747 142,849 2003 $5,440 75,479 0 6,839 137,758 2.755 2.755 143,269 2004 56,000 75,955 O 6,882 138,837 2.777 2777 144,391 2005 56,560 76,434 0 6,926 139,920 2.798 2,798 145,517 2008 $7,120 76,917 0 6,969 141,006 2,820 2,820 146,646 2007 57,968 77,402 135,370 0 7,013 142,384 2,848 2,848 148,079 2008 58,258 77,891 136,149 0 7,058 143,207 2,864 2,864 148,935 2009 $8,550 78,383 136,932 ° 7,102 144,034 2,881 2,881 149,796 2010 58,842 78,878 137,720 0 7147 144,867 2,897 2,897 150,662 2011 59,136 79,376 138,513 0 7,192 145,705 2,914 2.914 151,533 2012 59,432 79,878 139,310 0 7,238 146,548 2,931 2,931 152,410 2013 59,729 80,363 140,112 0 7,283 147,396 2,948 2,948 153,292 2014 60,028 80,891 140,919 0 7,329 148,249 2,965 2,965 154,179 2015 60,328 81,403 141,731 O 7,376 149,107 2,982 2,982 155,071 2016 60,630 81,918 142,548 o 7,423 149,971 2,999 2,999 155,969 2017 60,933 82,437 143,370 ° 7,470 150,839 3,017 3,017 156,873 2018 61,238 82,959 144,197 0 7.517 151,713 3,034 3,044 157,782 2019 61,544 83,484 145,028 0 7,564 152,593 3,052 3,052 158,696 2020 61,851 84,013 145,865, 0 7,612 153,477 3,070 3,070 159,616 2021 62,161 B44 146,707 0 7,661 154,367 3,087 3,087 160,542 2022 62,472 85,082 147,553 0 7,709 155,263 3,105, 3,105 161,473 2023 62,784 85,621 148,405, ° 7,758 156,163 3.123 3,123 162,410 2024 63,098 86,165 149,262 0 7,807 157,070 3.141 3,141 163,352 2025 63,413 86,711 150,125, 0 7,857 157,981 3,160 3,160 164,301 HISTU4.WK4