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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSt Paul Reconnaissance Study of Energy Requirements & Alternatives 7-1982 VIL-N 002 St. Paul i RECONNAISSANCE STUDY i OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND ALTERNATIVES PROPERTY OF: FOR ka Power Authority 34 W. 5th Ave. Orage, Alaska 99501 ST PAUL ANIAK ak MEKORYUK rho NEWTOK ee ae NIGHTMUTE COLD BAY NIKOLSKI ieee wase ST. GEORGE Seen dak ST. MARYS IVANOF BAY ST. PAUL eal TOKSOOK BAY LOWER AND TUNUNAK UPPER KALSKAG PREPARED BY NORTHERN TECHNICAL SERVICES & VAN GULIK AND ASSOCIATES ANCHORAGE, ALASKA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY__ ST. PAUL RECONNAISSANCE STUDY OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND ALTERNATIVES A Report by Northern Technical Services van Gulik and Associates Anchorage, Alaska July, 1982 1.0 Summary and Recommendations 2.0 Background 3.0 Village Meeting 4.0 Existing Heating and Electrical Power Generating Facilities 4.1 Bulk Fuel Storage and Heating Appliances 4.2 Electrical Generation Facilities 4.3 Fuel Oil Usage 4.4 Electrical Energy Distribution 5.0 Energy Balance 6.0 Eneryy Forecasts 6.1 Population Projection 6.2 Capital Projects 6.3 Thermal Energy Projection 6.4 Electrical Energy and Peak Demand Projection 7.0 Energy Resource Assessment 8.0 Energy Plans 8.1 Base Case 8.2 Alternate Plan A 9.0 Analysis of Alternatives and Recommendations Appendix TABLE OF CONTENTS Review Letters and Replies Page Ao 2.1 Pees eee ee Neo o a uo 1 ~ ADANNAD . eo ee ee —- NNeewo wo ooo eee ue = Table Table Table Table Table Table 5.1 8.2 9.1 9.2 9.3 LIST OF TABLES Energy Balance for 1982 Itemized Present Worth Analysis of the Base Case Itemized Present Worth Analysis of Alternate Plan A Summary of the Present Worth Analysis and Any Non-electric Benefits for Each Energy Plan Direct Power Generation Costs for Each Energy Plan Preference Ranking of Village Energy Plans and Associated Recommended Actions ae 8.2 8.7 9.1 9.2 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 2.1 2.2 4.1 4.2 6.1 LIST OF FIGURES Location Map Climatic Background Bulk Fuel Storage Capacities and Types of Heating Appliances Electrical Generation Facilities Fuel Oil Usage Electrical Generation Sector Energy Distribution Energy Flow Diagram Distribution of Total Useable Energy Population Projection Thermal Energy Projection Peak Demand and Electrical Energy Projection Appropriate Technology Ranking Diagram aid Page 2.2 2.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.3 5.4 6.3 6.3 6.4 7.3 1.0 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The production of electricity is the focus of the nergy Reconnaissance Program. The study has focused on seeking potential alternatives to diesel powered electrical generators. Opportunities to reduce the cost of electrical generation, such as waste heat capture systems, were also detailed. A waste heat capture system utilizes a resource (thermal energy) which is currently wasted in diesel electric generation. Tue sale of otherwise wasted heat can provide additional income to the utility and thus reflected in lower costs for genecation of electricity. In St. Paul, an efficient operation 2f the exist- ing power plant through load management was compar2d to the central generation base case. A waste heat capture system is currently being installed at St. Paul. ' Summary Statements Only those technologies that could be readily assimilated into St. Paul were considered. 1. Fuel oil was found to be the major source of energy used in the village. Additional energy was supplied by propane and gasoline. 2. Significant amounts of energy are lost in the village due to: (1) inefficient combustion; (2) poor insulation and excessive air infiltration; and (3) wasted heat from diesel electric generation. 3. Forecasts show an inevitable increase in energy consumption in the village due to population growth. Additional construction unrelated to population size is anticipated and will impact energy consumption and demand. Energy resource baseline data is generally weak in the village. This weakens the accuracy of technological or economic predictions. However, the estimates relative to waste heat availability appear reasonably reliable. The feasibility of various technologies, for electri- cal and thermal energy production, were evaluated. Wind, coal, wood, solar, hydro, geothermal, and peat were considered as potential energy resources but are not viable alternatives to fuel oil generated electri- city. More effecient operation of the existing power plant formed the basis of the alternate energy plan. The Base Case Plan was formulated based on the continued use of centrally generated electric power. A present worth analysis of each alternative plan was performed. Waste heat capture system is presently being installed on the generators to serve the school and other village buildings. General Recommendations 1. The supporting energy and resource data base should be strengthened. New technologies, and advances in old technologies, need demonstration projects to determine their feasibility in rural Alaska. 1.2 Je Significant energy savings could be realized by a village-wide energy conservation and weatherization program. Village Specific Recommendations 1s An automatic control system to match on-line generating capacity to peak demand, as it varies throughout the day, will improve the the generation efficiency of the NMFS power plant. Installation of such system is recommended. 2. The following should be undertaken: a. Initiate feasibility study of automatic control system. 2.0 BACKGROUND Introduction St. Paul was founded in the late 1700's by Russian fur traders who brought Aleuts to the Pribilof Islands to conduct the fur seal harvest. The fur seal industry has historically been the basis of economic and political activity. In order to manage the fur seal harvest, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) became the sole administrator and operator of St. Paul Island. NMFS is currently in the process of turning over administration of the island to the community of St. Paul. The Aleut Corporation is the native corporation encompassing St. Paul while the Tanadgusix Corporation is the local village corporation. St. Paul is accessible by sea year round. Reeve Aleutian Airways provides transportation to St. Paul from Anchorage via Cold Bay twice a week during summer and once a week during winter. Location St. Paul is located on the southern tip of St. Paul Island, the northernmost island of the Pribilof Island group near the southeast Bering Sea Shelf. St. Paul is 40 miles north of St. George, 280 miles north of Dutch Harbor and 800 miles west of Anchorage (see Figure 2.1). Topography The topography of St. Paul Island includes volcanic flows and cores. Much of the shoreline is volcanic cliffs edged by rocky beaches that serve as seal rookeries. KEY KOTLIK SAINT MARYS KALSKAG ANIAK LOWER KALSKAG NEWTOK NIGHTMUTE CHEFORNAK MEKORYUK 10 TOKSOOK BAY 11 TUNUNAK 12 HOOPER BAY 13. CHIGNIK LAGOON 14 CHIGNIK 15 IVANOF BAY 16 FALSE PASS 17 COLD BAY 18 NIKOLSKI nawrion 5= fine! Saint mapys.2 ee : oO wausKas 3° -=. “pd tower oat aninx & 11 TunuNAK — manne 7 x a 10 toxsoox Bay -! ! | QMEKORYUK—~as, 5 no { jf ; _ * \ | | j i % 2 || tle, * CHEFORNAR> | | 7 | j | j | 8. ODNOOLUN— nN Ae 19 ATKA 20 ST. PAUL 2l ST. GEORGE 2a ea 20 as a ; AEN cmon 14 sjvanor say 15 mH “FALSE Pass 16 “1 S LAN os 300 MILES Figure 2.1 LOCATION MAP \ Climate Climate in St. Paul is directly influenced by the cold Bering Sea waters. Temperature ext remes range from 52°F to 24°F. Rain occurs year round but maximum precipitation per month is 5 inches. Snow has occurred during all months of the year but there is generally little accumulation. Climatic background information from St. Paul is summarized in Figure 2.2. Population Historical population data is as follows: ‘Jones 1976, Foote, et al. 1968) Census Year 1867 1880 1899 1950 1970 1981 Population 283 279 214 350 455 590 Population projections for the next 20 years are discussed and graphed in Section 6. Economy The economy of St. Paul is based on the harvesting of fur seals on the island. The NMFS now controls the harvest, but is withdrawing its support at the island gradually over the next 5 years. Village planners are exploring establishing other industries on the island. Other employers in the village include the school, village corporation, and the Public Health Service. Climatic Background san | ree | man | ap | may sun | sui | auc! see! ocr! nov! oe Light Conditions Pode too F! ing Weather < 1.000 tt ceiting/ 3 miles visibility VFR Conditions PERCENT FREQUENCY g TFR Conditions ° o Winds Mean wind speed /prevsiting direction | e_[NNe| NE | NWN |S |S [ssw | hw | NW | NNE| NNE rt x 220 $ ; ~ £10 0. 3 aes ; Wind >28 knots Unfavorable Favorable PERCENT FREQUENCY o 3 8 Wind >7 knots PERCENT FREQUENCY 8 oa a Oecurrence of calm gree ols ° 1 Precipitation Maximum precipitation t SOE T oT een ereciprrstion 4 mum tnowtell + I | T { T Temperature & 7 + 60}—— | Atreme maximss sof Mean maximud sere pays Growing Degree Days ‘ —+ —+__f. JAN | Feb) MAR | APRIMAY. JUN | JUL! AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV; DEC : i ! 1 I Source: Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Community Profile Series. Figure 2.2 2.4 3.0 COMMUNITY MEETING Upon arrival in St. Pau!, the field team met with the St. Paul-St. George Inter-Island Council. Representatives from both city councils as well as representatives from the St. Paul Tanadgusix Corporation (TDX) and the St. George Tanaq Corporation were present:. Members present included: Larry Merculief John R. Merculief Victor Lekanof Boris Merculief Stan Bippus Flore Lekanof Iliodor Philemonof Gilbert Kashavarof Johnsenia and Jason Bourdekofsky Douglas Melivedof Project personnel informed the council of the purpose of their visit and the facilities, homes and records they would like to see while in St. Paul. The council was very willing to assist the project team and arranged for tours of the power house and National Marine Fisheries (NMF ) buildings. Victor Lekanof detailed the services that will be curtailed by 1986 due to the NMF pull-out. These were as follows: Delivery and sales of home heating fuel and gasoline; Maintenance and operation of the power and sewer plants and power lines; and 50% subsidy of electrical cost. Stan Bippus, council member and superintendent of schools informed project personnel that the school is currently planning a waste heat capture system at the NMFS power plant to provide space heat to the school. The system will be installed in 1982. Larry Merculief informed the project team of the four types of homes in St. Paul; very old cement houses, newer houses (circa 1965) of wood and cement, HUD homes, and large wood frame homes. A community evening meeting was held, with the attendance of nine villagers. A film by the Division of Power and Energy titled "Energy for Alaskans" was shown. After the film, discussion with the villagers centerd on weatherization and home heating, as well as heat recovery at the power plant. Interest was also expressed in utilizing wood or coal for home heating. Residents present supplied information on the price of heating fuel, the appliances present in most homes and the condition of the homes. Some residents said that the HUD homes are settling and the skirting is splitting and cold air entering through the uninsulated floors. 3.2 4.0 EXISTING HEATING AND ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATING FACILITIES 4.1 4.2 4.3 Bulk Fuel Storage and Heating Appliances Bulk fuel storage capacity within the village is listed, segregated by sector, in Figure 4.1. These Capacities are based on actual tank sizes and on estimates where reliable data could not be obtained. The storage capacity of domestic fuel tanks and 55 gallon drums is not included in the bulk storage capacities. Also listed in Figure 4.1 are the types of heating and cooking appliances, segregated by sector, being used in the village. Electrical Generation Facilities The existing generating equipment installed in the village is listed in Figure 4.2. Comments on the Operation of the generators are included. Fuel Oil Usage Figure 4.3 illustrates the use of fuel oil in the village. Consumption of fuel oil by sector for space heating is listed as a percentage of the total oil consumption. Similarly, the percentage of oil used for electrical power generation is shown, 4.1 4.4 The oil used for space heating is broken down to show the portion that actually heats building space, and that which is lost to waste. The electrical generation fuel oil is also separated into electrical energy and waste heat segments. Fuel oil consumption in the village was based on records, where available, and calculated estimates where no reliable records existed. Please refer to the main report for an explanation of the estimating process. The fuel oil consumption for electrical power generation was based on an assumed central electrical power plant, with the generating equipment listed in Figure 4.2. Electrical Energy Distribution The energy flow through the electrical generation sector is depicted graphically on Figure 4.4. The "pie-chart" represents the total energy dedicated to the generation of electrical power. Each sector in the village consumes a slice of the pie, as shown. 4.2 ST. PAUL/1982 BULK FUEL STORAGE CAPACITIES AND TYPES OF HEATING APPLIANCES SECTOR ELECTRICAL GENERATION RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL SCHOOLS PUBLIC FUEL OIL 630000 (GALS) GASOLINE ' 100000 STORAGE * TYPE OF HEATING APPLIANCE 1,3,5 1,2,3 2 LEGEND: TYPE OF HEATING APPLIANCE ] OIL-FIRED FORCED AIR FURNACE OIL-FIRED BOILER WITH WATER/GLYCOL DISTRIBUTION ORIP-TYPE OIL STOVE/FURNACE WOOD STOVE PROPANE COOKING STOVES oo FW HP WASTE HEAT FROM GENERATORS *DAY TANKS AND FUEL DRUMS ARE NOT INCLUDED. Figure 4.1 ELECTRICAL GENERATION GENERATOR OUTPUT RATING TYPE OF ENGINE ST. PAUL TYPE OF GENERATOR FACILITIES ELECTRICAL DISTRIBUTION COMMENTS ON OPERATION National Marine Fisheries Service 350 KW 150 KW 350 KW Worthington GMC Westinghouse General Electric General Electric Figure 4.2 2400/4160V One 350 KW Worthington not oner- ational. Generators operate in parallel. Heat recovery will be added in 1982. Typical operation is one 350 KW unit and one or two 150 KW units. The 350 KW GMC units will become operational by June, 1982. FUEL OIL USAGE ST. PAUL / 1982 SECTOR END USE Space Heat Waste Heat 21% Percent Generator Waste Heat 36% Electricity 12% R Residential 25 % C Commercial 7 % P Public 13 % S School 6% E Electrical Power °, Generation 48 % ESTIMATED FUEL OTL USE = 528000 GAL = 71300x10°B Tu Figure 4.3 4.5 ELECTRICAL GENERATION SECTOR ENERGY DISTRIBUTION ST. PAUL Residential Commercial Public School Waste Heat Generation Losses TOTAL ENERGY 34,200 x 10 BTU/YEAR TOTAL ELECTRIC POWER 2440 MWH/YEAR Figure 4.4 4.6 5.0 ENERGY BALANCE The estimated energy consumption in St. Paul during 1982 is listed in Table 5.1. Estimates of the different types of energy consumed by the various sectors are based upon the 1980-81 fuel purchase records kept by the store, the school, and the NMFS. Estimates based on the population, square footage of residences and other buildings, and calculated energy usage factors, were used where data were incomplete. The flow of energy through the village is illustrated in Figure 5.1. In 1982 it is estimated that 78,655 MMBTU of fuel will enter St. Paul in the form of gasoline, propane and fuel oil. This fuel will be distributed to the various sectors and used for transportation, cooking, heating and electricity generation. The conversion of the fuel to its end use will result in 52% or 40,690 MMBTU of energy lost as heat. 73% of this waste heat could be recovered using conservation and waste heat recovery practices. The actual amount of energy used by each sector is listed in the last column of the diagram. The 1982 projected distribution of useable energy is shown in Figure 5.2. The distribution represents the quantity of energy that will be required by each sector (excluding transportation) for electric lights and appliances, water heating, space heating and cooking, and generation station service. Percentages listed in the figure can be multiplied by the useable energy of 30792 x 10® Btus to determine the projected energy requirements for a particular end use in a given sector. These projected energy requirements do not include energy conversion losses and therefore represent the actual quantity of energy required for each end use. CS VILLAGE: ST. PAUL FUEL OIL ENERGY BALANCE GASOLINE PROPANE TOTAL ENERGY | SECTOR ELECTRICITY BTU GAL 7 Te % MWH BTU, GAL 6 10° x10 LBs. BTU x 10° atu x 108 15846 % 42 TRANSPORTATION RESIDENTIAL 134000 18100 | 25 1412 | 4821 | 58 COMMERCIAL as90} 13 PUBLIC 6163] 16 SCHOOLS 3i06| 8 GENERATION 25300 34200] 48 231 wet | 9 787| 2 7170; 19 527804 *station service or distribution losses Table 5.1 €°s ainbi4 L's ST. PAUL /1982 Pop: 590 HOUSEHOLDS: 112 10,800 HTG. DEGREE DAYS FUEL AMOUNT ENERGY PROOUCT ELECTRICAL END USE TOTAL BY SECTOR CONVERSION DISTRIBUTION BY SECTOR USABLE ENERGY GASOLINE TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION (7170) TRANSPORTATION (7170) (7170) 0 4 PROPANE COOKING (145) (145) (15246) RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL wood HEATING (18245) (10229) HEATING/ mimi COOKING = - (4821) wh 2,29.) COMMERCIAL a COMMERCIAL qemnite (3160), (1730) (4890) (3270) _ (2110) (787) (8340) (787) FUEL OIL POWER : POWER GEN. GENERATION ELECTRICAL . (rea) GENERATORS (34200) (576) 1 SCHOOL(S) 6 SCHOOL(S) HEATING/ (2530) (3106) (4210) COOKING — - 42 (1680). ages! PUBLIC 163 PUBLIC ae (5740) oe 1 N a (9560) Pee - | at | | TOTAL | TOTAL WASTE TOTAL INPUT HEAT USABLE i ENERGY (40690) ENERGY ! RECOVERABLE (78655) WASTE HEAT iy i (23538) (61500) WASTE HEAT NON - RECOVERABLE . (17152) HOLE: - i he NUMBERS IN BRACKETS ARE 10° BTU'S. WVYOSVIG MOTTA ADYSN]A DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL USABLE ENERGY™*™ ST PAUL/1982 SECTOR END USE BY SECTOR 100 90 a < 80 = ~ 2 ae a - 70 “= H/C (35.83) uu w a 2 60 - = w 50 = E (5-68) _ a 40 H/C (10.38 PWR GEN P (2.6%) 30 E: (1.9%) ec E (1.48) 10 PUBLIC H/C (14.0% 0 END USE SUMMARY E LIGHTS, REFRIGERATOR/FREEZERS, 16.3 % VIDEO, AND OTHER ELECTRICAL USES WH WATER HEATING 13.2 %- H/C SPACE HEATING, COOKING AND MISC. 68.0 % P GENERATOR STATION SERVICE/ 2.6 TRANSMISSION LOSSES TOTAL USABLE ENERGY = 30792 x 10° Btu % DOES NOT INCLUDE ENERGY USED FOR TRANSPORTATION AND RECOVERABLE WASTE HEAT Fig. 5.2 6.0 ENERGY FORECASTS 6.1 6.2 Population Projection The population of St. Paul was forecast for the twenty year planning period based upon historical population trends, expected changes resulting from planned capital projects, and the villagers' projections of the growth of their own community. Historical data approximates an average annual growth rate of 2%. Growth is expected to slow somewhat when the National Marine Fisheries Service discontinues their management of the island. However, the village is planning to expand the dock and harbor facilities in order to stimulate the fishing industry. Additionally, many residents are returning from regional centers and schools to settle in St. Paul. Thus, the 2% average growth rate is expected to continue and was used in the population projection. Historical and projected populations are listed below. Figure 6.1 illustrates the population projection over the 20 year planning period. Historical | Projected 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 359 378 450 551 608 671 742 Capital Projects Forecast A dock and harbor facility may be built in St. Paul as the villagers plan to expand the fishing industry. Actual dates of construction have not been decided. 6.4 Thermal Energy Projection Figure 6.2 presents the anticipated thermal energy consumption of St. Paul during the forecast period. The thermal energy is provided by the combustion of fuel for space heating. The projections were based on fuel use records and estimates of the heating requirements of the buildings. Electrical Energy and Peak Demand Projection Figure 6.3 presents the anticipated electrical energy consumption of St. Paul, segregated by sector, during the forecast period. The projections were based on the existing electrical loads, consumption records, and estimates where accurate data was not available. Details of the estimation methods and calculations are included in the Methodology section of the main report. 6.2 ENERGY (MMBTUD ° THERMAL POPULATION PROJECTION ST PAUL 9a2 esa Zz 8228 oO Ht kK 758 < ad 2 722 Qa oO a 858 622 552 1 1 4 a | 1 1 1 Dein 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1984 1986 1988 1992 19s2 1994 1996 1998 2228 YEAR Figure 6.1 THERMAL ENERGY PROJECTION ST PAUL 35228 1954 1986 Figure 6.2 1934 1935 1938 28 22 ELECTRICAL ENERGY ELECTRICAL ENERGY PEAK DEMAND (KY) TOTAL (MWH) BY SECTOR CMWH) PEAK DEMAND PROJECTION ST PAUL 923 828 788 622 Seg po og et ea 1gs2 1984 1988 1988 1998 1992 1994 19968 1988 2888 YEAR ELECTRICAL ENERGY PROJECTION ST PAUL 4282 35288 L ee 3ec2 ; 2582 2222 1 1 — 1 4 1 1 + 1 + 1 1 L 1 oa 2528 RN 2028 abh.... et 1828 + eer 522 -— GN b-- Sb -2+-25-- S57 St TSS TST SS g A 1 1 1 LL 1 1 1 a 4. 1 1 1 1 decinibemeelies 1982 1984 1986 1988 199% 1992 1994 1996 1898 2220 YEAR G = Electrical Generation Sector C = Commercial P = Public S = Schools R = Residential Figure 6.3 6.4 7.0 ENERGY RESOURCE ASSESSMENT Wind The mean annual wind speed recorded at St. Paul is 14.9 kts. Although this speed is sufficient to render operation of a wind generator viable, wind speeds and direction vary constantly. Placement of a wind generator on a site with relatively consistent wind May result in increased transmission distance and preclude the benefit of wind generation. Wood, Coal, Peat, Geothermal, Hydro The resources necessary for generation by these methods are not available in St. Paul. Solar Passive solar heat may be considered viable only as a supplement to home heating, however, the poor weather conditions and short winter daylight hours preclude effective use of passive solar systems. Conservation Measures Waste Heat Capture The majority of the energy in the fuel oil burned in a diesel generator is lost as waste heat through the engine water cooling system, exhaust gases, and radiant heat from the engine. Much of the waste heat can be reclaimed from the engine cooling water and exhaust gas by transferring ries the heat in heat exchangers to a secondary fluid, usually an antifreeze solution. This is then pumped to buildings and used in heaters for space heating. The school district is currently installing waste heat recovery equipment at the NMFS power plant to heat the school complex and additional community buildings. Weatherization Homes and buildings built in the Pribilof Islands in the past have in general been poorly insulated and weatherized. Heat loss from such buildings is high, in the forms of heat loss directly through the walls, floor, and ceiling, and by the cold air that enters around leaky doors and windows. Insulating and weatherizing a home can often cut the heating fuel requirement in half or more, and make the building more comfortable and liveable at the same time. The materials required are inexpensive, and the skills necessary for installation low. This work is perhaps the most effective way of reducing village energy usage. Technology Ranking Figure 7.1 presents a ranking of the technologies that could be applied to the village. Each technology was examined on the basis of state-of-the-art quality of the technology, cost, reliability, resource, labor, and environmental impact. Please refer to the Methodology section of the main report for the ranking method. 7.2 Village of St. Paul _ Technology Relia- Environ- Ranking State-of-the-Art Cost bility Resource Labor mental Factor Impact ric + 1 + Weatherization* 5 5 5 5 5 5 1.00 b —— ad Diesel Power 5 4 4 4 4 4 0.87 Waste Heat Recovery* 5 4 3 3 3 4 0.77 Hydroelectric Power N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0.00 Wind Energy Conversion 2 2 2 2 2 4 0.43 Systems i {+ | Geothermal Energy | N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0.00 Steam Power from local N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 0.00 fuel,wood,coal,ect.. v v Z “ / at Gasification of wood,coal N/A A A N or peat / N/A N/ 0 N/ /A 0.00 G ti i h | feneration via synchronous 4 3 2 3 1 4 0.63 Esaonbabala Electrical Load Management* | 5 4 3 4 3 4 0.83 * Energy Conservation Measures Note: 0 = worst case, 5 best case Figure 7.1 N/A Not Applicable 8.0 8.1.1 8.1.2 ENERGY PLAN Base Case General Description The base case plan for St. Paul is to continue using the centralized diesel generating system. As the village grows additional generators are added as required by the increasing peak demand. Base Case Cost Analysis The capital value of the existing central electric power plant was estimated to be $2,582,000. The plant value was amortized over a 20 year period. Additional generation capacity was added, in increments of 150 kw, aS required by growing peak demand. The cost of additional generation capacity was estimated to be $830/kw. The cost of fuel oil was set at $9.33/MMBTU, based on a fuel cost of $1.26/gallon. Operation and Maintenance expenses were estimated at 8¢/kwh, Table 8.1 presents the itemized present value analysis of the base case for the 20 year study period. The discounted 20 year present value was $14,363,700. 7°8 DIESEL - ELECTRIC INTEREST AND AMORTIZATION FUEL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE TOTAL ° TOTAL YEARLY PLAN COST DISCOUNTED PLAN COST DIESEL - ELECTRIC INTEREST AND AMORTIZATION FUEL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE TOTAL TOTAL YEARLY PLAN COST DISCOUNTED PLAN COST 1982 173.0 334.6 199.9 707.5 707.5 707.5 1992 181.4 535.5 247.5 964.3 964.3 717.6 1983 173.0 351.1 204.4 728.5 728.5 707.3 1993 181.4 560.8 252.6 ST PAUL PLAN 1 BASE CASE 1984 1985 1986 1987 173.0 173.0 173.0 173.0 368.2 386.1 404.7 424.2 209.0 213.6 218.2 222.9 750.2 772.6 796.0 820.2 750.2 772.6 796.0 820.2 707.1 707.1 9707.2 = 707.5 1994 1995 1996 1997 181.4 181.4 181.4 181.4 587.3. 615.0 644.0 674.2 257.9 263.2 268.6 274.1 994.8 1026.5 1059.6 1093.9 1129.7 1988 173.0 444.6 227.7 845.3 845.3 707.9 1998 181.4 705.9 279.7 1989 1381.4 465.8 232.5 879.7 879.7 715.3 1999 189.7 739.0 285.4 1167.0 1214.2 994.8 1026.5 1059.6 1093.9 1129.7 1167.0 1214.2 718.7 NOTE: 720.0 721.5 723.2 725.1 **k ALL VALUES IN $1000's Table 8.1 727.2 734.6 1990 181.4 488.0 237.5 906.8 906.8 715.9 2000 189.7 773.7 291.2 1254.6 1254.6 737.0 1991 181.4 511.2 242.4 935.0 935.0 716.6 2001 189.7 809.9 297.1 1296.8 1296.8 739.5 TOTAL 3593.9 10823.8 4925.6 19343.2 19343.2 14363.7 8.1.3 Social and Environmental Evaluation Base Case Plan Summary: Continuation of >resent diesel generation 1) 2) Community Preference: The villagers of St. Paul recognize that diesel generation is the only technologically feasible way of generating electricity today. Therefore, their interests are in seeing the most efficient use of the system. Reliability of power supply is regard2d as basic to the village's needs. Environmental Considerations: i) Air Quality: Exhausting combustion gases releases a small amount of pollutants to the local environment, but the impact is minimal. ii) Noise: The exhaust stacks from the generators produce a considerabl2 amount of noise. The installation of more effective mufflers would reduce the noise level. iii) Water Quality: No impact. iv) Fish and Wildlife Impacts: No known impact. v) Terrestrial Impacts: There is no impact on vegetation or soils. vi) Land Use and Ownership Status: All leases and permits are in place. 8.3 8.1.4 Base Case Technical Evaluation The continued operation of the central diesel electric power plant in St. Paul is expected to conform to the following: 1. High Reliability. Diesel electric is a well proven well understood technology with a successful history in rural Alaska. Backup generation allows maintenance of the generators to be performed without major power interruption. Occasional system downtime is expected for distribution system maintenance. Safety. A small risk is realized by the storage and handling of fuel oil. Normal risks associated with electrical power are also present. Availability. There are no indications that spare parts will become difficult to obtain in the future. The availability of fuel to the power plant depends on the reliability of transportation to the village. 8.4 8.2 Alternate Plan A 8.2.1 General Description The Alternate Plan A for St. Paul is the installation of equipment to automatically start and stop generators as required, to meet the varying electrical demand. Current operating practice is to attempt to match the demand by manually switching generators, in parallel, on or off. The automatic system, based around a peogrammable logic controller, would automatically add extra on-line capacity, or remove it, in response to rising or falling electrical demand. The generation rate, based on 1980-81 figures, was 9.65 KWH/gallon fuel oil. The estimated generation rate, with the automatic control, is 10.75 KWH/gallon fuel oil. This corresponds to a 2.8% increase in efficiency. 8.2.2 Alternate Plan A Cost Estimate The installation cost of the automatic control system is itemized as follows: Programmable Controller, switching, 12,000 indicator lights, control cabinet, shipping Labor and Software Development 33,000 Subtotal 45,000 Engineering 9,000 Project Management 2,500 Test and Energization 2,500 Contingency 13,500 Total Estimated Cost 72,500 Table 8.2 presents the itemized present value analysis of Alternate Plan A for the 20 year study period. The discounted 20 year present value was $13,624,400. 8.2.3 Social and Environmental Evaluation Alternate Plan A Summary: Improved diesel operation. 1) 2) Community Preference: The villagers recognize that diesel generation is the only viable technology available for the levels of electrical generation required in the village. The village is also installing waste heat currently. Therefore optimization of the electrical generation system is of great interest to the community. “nvironmental Considerations: i) Air Quality: No impacts beyond those of the base case. ii) Noise Levels: No impacts will occur beyond those of the base case. iii) Water Quality: No impact beyond that of the base case. 8.6 DIESEL - ELECTRIC INTEREST AND AMORTIZATION FUEL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE TOTAL TOTAL YEARLY PLAN COST DISCOUNTED PLAN COST DIESEL - ELECTRIC INTEREST AND AMORTIZATION FUEL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE TOTAL : (TOTAL YEARLY PLAN LUSI DISCOUNTED PLAN COST 1982 1983 178.0 178.0 300.2 314.9 199.9 204.4 678.1 697.3 678.1 697.3 678.1 677.0 1992 1993 186.4 186.4 480.3 503.1 247.5 252.6 914.2 942.1 914.2 942.1 680.3 680.6 NOTE: ST PAUL PLAN 2 ALTERNATE A 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 178.0 178.0 178.0 178.0 178.0 186.4 186.4 186.4 330.3 346.3 363.1 380.6 398.8 417.9 437.8 458.6 209.0 213.6 218.2 .222.9 227.7 232.5 237.5. 242.4 717.3, 737.9 759.3, 781.5 804.5 836.8 861.6 887.4 717.3 737.9 759.3, 781.5 804.5 836.8 861.6 887.4 676.1 675.3 674.6 674.1 673.8 680.4 680.2 680.1 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 186.4 186.4 186.4 186.4 186.4 194.7 194.7 194.7 926.8 551.7 577.7 604.8 633.2 663.0 694.0 726.5 257.9 263.2 268.6 274.1 279.7 285.4 291.2 297.1 971.1 1001.7 1932.6 1065.3 1099.3 1143.1 1180.0 1718.4 9/11 1001.2 1032.6 1065.3 1099.3 1143.1 1180.0 1218.4 681.1 681.8 682.7 683.8 685.1 691.6 693.1 694.8 *** ALL VALUES IN $1000's Table 8.2 TOTAL 3693.9 9709.6 4925.6 18329.0 18329.0 13624.4 iv) Fish and Wildlife Impacts: No known impacts. v) Terrestrial Impact: None known. vi) Land Use and Ownership Status: No change from the existing situation. 8.2.4 Alternate A Technical Evaluation The installation of the automatic switching system at the St. Paul power plant would be expected to conform to the following: 1. Reliability. Good reliability would be expected. The system components are proven, rugged, simple industrial quality control hardware. 2. Safety. No safety hazards would be expected. 3. Availability. All system components would be available off the shelf. 8.8 9.0 ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES AND RECOMMENDATIONS en ea en enn a ee eS, Table 9.1 summarizes the village plans, the associated Present worth analysis, and any non-electric benefits. Table 9.1 Dp AN ST. PAUL Base Case Alternative A nergy Source Diese mproved diese efficiency Present Wort ; 6 00 7,624,000 Non-Electric Benefits eee ‘ota q,30 00 7024,000 Direct power generation costs, excluding administrative costs, are presented in Table 9.2 for each energy plan. Table 9.2 Energy Base Case Alternative A Production Plan 1 Cost Plan 2 Cost Year (kwh/yr. ) (¢/kwh ) (¢/kwh ) , ’ . . 1983 2,555,000 28.51 27.29 1984 2,612,000 263.72 27.46 1985 2,670,000 28.94 27.64 1986 2,728,000 29.18 27.83 1987 2,787,000 29.43 28.04 1988 2,846,000 29.70 28.27 1989 2,907,000 30.26 28.79 1990 2,968,000 30.55 29.03 1991 3,030,000 30.86 29.29 1992 3,094,000 31.17 29.55 1993 3,158,000 31.50 29.83 1994 3,223,000 31.85 30.13 1995 3,290,000 32.21 30.43 1996 3,357,000 32.59 30.76 1997 3,426,000 32.97 31.09 1998 3,496,000 33..38 31.44 1999 3,568,000 34.03 32.04 2000 3,640,000 34.47 32.42 2001 3,714,000 34.92 32.81 el ee Ord Table 9.3 presents the plans for the village, in rank of recommended preference. The recommended action appropriate to each alternative is listed as well. Table 9.3 Energy Plan Alternative Recommended Action Alternative A - Improved Initiate design of Diesel Generation Efficiency automatic load matching system. Base Case — Operation of ~ Anticipated Central Power Plant Additional Recommendations Weatherization No resource assessment or -building insulation feasibility study »building envelope indicated; immediate action infiltration required to bring Energy -improved combustion Audit and/or weatherization program to this community. APPENDIX. See Section 3.0 (Methodology) of the Main Report: RECONNAISSANCE STUDY OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND ALTERNATIVES FOR THE VILLAGES OF Aniak, Atka, Chefornak, Chignik Lake, Cold Bay, False Pass, Hooper Bay, Ivanof Bay, Kotlik, Lower and Upper Kalskag, Mekoryuk, Newtok, Nightmute, Nikolski, St. George, St. Marys, St. Paul, Toksook Bay, and Tununak. DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY ALASKA DISTRICT, CORPS OF ENGINEERS P.O. BOX 7002 ANCHORAGE. ALASKA 99510 REPLY TO ATTENTION OF NPAEN-PL-R 3 1 MAR i9g2 REGEIVED APR ~ z 3982 Mr. Eric Yould 334 West Sth Avenue ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY Anchorage, Alaska 9950] Dear Mr. Yould: Thank you for the Opportunity to review your draft enercy reconnaissance reports for FY 1982. In general, we found the reports to be comprehensive and potentially helpful in our planning studies for both hydropower ana boat harbors. We would appreciate copies of the final reports when they are available. We have limited our comments to the reports that considered the areas we are most familiar with; however, some of the comments May apply to the other reports as well. The attached pages list specific commeits for various communities. If we can be of further assistance, please feel free to contact Mr. Loran Baxter of my staff at 552-3461. Sincerely, 1 Incl . had A ‘eon As stated Chief, Engineering Division Comments Page 7.1 is inconsistant. The lack of wind data is sted in the first Paragraph, then details of specific average annual wind speed versus height is given in the next Paragraph. Then a comment that a site with wind in excess of 12 mph is a good site is followed bythe statement that wind energy is expensive. We suggest that this be reworded for clarification. Page 7.3 - 7.4. The write-up under the heading "Assumptions" is contradictory. The statement is made that “Weather on the Aleutian Islands varies greatly from one island to the other..." but is preceded and followed by statements stating that weather on Amchitka is comparable to that on Shemya, and that Atka's weather is comparable to that on Adak. Page 8.7. Mobilization and Demobilization costs of $50,000 appear low. Chignik Lake: Pages 7.1 and 8.13. Location of hydropower site is inconsistant. Page 8.14. Average power of 114 kW assumes 100 percent efficiency. "Energy ” Available" is wrong based on 30 percent plant factor. Table 8.5. This table shows the hydropower project dispiacing all the diese] generation until 2000. However, the peak-demand projection on page 6.4 ranges between approximately 85 kW in 1982 to about 125 kW in 2000. Based on the streamflows shown on page 7.2 and the data Presented on page 8.14, the hydropower system could not Produce more than about 80°kW in December, 65 kW in January, 60 kW in February, and 50 kW in March. The peak deinanas would likely fall during this period and not during the summer when most of the village moves to Chignik Lagoon. Page 9.1 . The feasibility cost estimate of $35,000 to $45,000, including streamgaging, appears low. Cold Bay: The hydropower potential for Cold Bay referenced from the Corps' 1980 reconnaissance study has been found to be overly optimistic; therefore, the data should not be used. icc / False Pass: We concur with their findings that hydropower does not appear feasible. Ivanof Bay: Table 8.5. The table shows the hydropower system will displace all diesel. Based upon load and streamflow assumptions, it would not. Page 8.15. Mobilization and Demobilization costs appear low. Page 9.1. The feasibility study. cost estimate of $25,000 to $35,000, including streamgaging, appears low. Nikolski: The findings, as reported, agree with the results of the Corps' study. We feel that wind generation is the most Promising alternative to diese] generation. The White Alice site may not be the most feasible location because of its distance from town. Although it is protected from corrosive salt spray because of its elevation, a wind energy conversion system may be affected by the other structures within the installation. The bluff between the runway and Sheep Creek may be a better site. The report neglected to mention if the WECS installed on the Chaluka Ranch has been repaired and placed in service and if it is Performing satisfactorly. If a diesel enlargement were recommended to cope with substantial expansion of electrical demand, a salvaging of White Alice units could be Pursued as an option if appropriate government channels can be identified. St. Paul: The reconnaissance study did not consider the impact of the proposed expansion of the fishing industry being considered by the local community. This could substantially alter the report findings. Galena: In a letter dated 9 June 1981 (copy previously furnished to your office), dtt Nater Engineers stated that they felt that a storage project with a 100 to 300-foot dam may be feasible. The Corps will be taking a second look at this site this summer to determine if a feasibility study is warranted. Gustavus: The National Park Service has been directed to cooperate with the Corps of Engineers to determine the feasibility of hydroelectwic power on Falls Creek. An initial field trip and public meeting is tentativ@ly scheduled for mid-May. ‘We will be installing a streamgage this summer. New Chenega: The study indicates that it would be possible to construct a hydropower system at the site above the San Juan fish hatchery. It is our understanding that San Juan Aquaculture is going to construct a new hydropower system at this site for their personal use. We suggest you call Mr. Mike Hall with R.wW. Retherford Associates at 274-6551. He is involved with the proposed development. Reply to Department of the Army, Alaska District, Corps of Engineers, letter dated 3/31/82. Atka p- 7.1 (draft) Statements concerning wind resoures have been clarified. p. 7.3-7.4 (draft) Because of the lack of climatic data from the Aleutian Islands, it is necessary to extrapolate data from the nearest recording station. However, variability in the local climate means that all extrapolations are conservative. p- 8.7 (draft) Cost estimates for mobilization and demobilization have been adjusted to reflect Anchorage prices for equipment rather than those quoted from Adak. Chignik Lake p. 7.1 - 8.13 (draft) The distance has been corrected. 8.14 (draft) The energy available value has been corrected. Table 8.5 (draft) The table presented in the final report illustrates the use of diesel powered generators when there is a projected short fall. p. 9.1 The feasibility study estimates have been addressed especially in light of the comments from the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service which are included above. Cold Bay The hydropower data was included as part of the resource assessment and was the determining factor for our not including an alternative plan which was based on hydro. False Pass No comment necessary. Ivanof Bay Table 8.5 The hydropower scenario calls for the construction of a small dam and creates a reservoir. Without extensive field work, it has not been possible to show that this would be inadequate to meet the estimated demand of the village. p. 8.15 Mobilization costs have been increased. p. 9.1 Feasibility study figures have been increased especially in light of the comments and requirements of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service which are included above. Nikolski The White Alice site was considered because excellent foundations exist and the site is removed from the influence of salt spray. The bluff between the runway and Sheep Creek has been reconsidered and discussed with representatives of the village. The result has been the suggestion that the bluff site is a viable alternative and marginally less costly to develop because of a shorter transmission distance. However, this is largely offset by anticipated foundation problems at the bluff site. WECS at the Chaluka Ranch was not in operation when the field team was in the village. The diesel set from the White Alice site was purchased by the utility; however, its condition was uncertain and the engine was being stored outside. St. Paul As the role of the National Marine Fisheries in the Pribilofs is curtailed, the future of the islands' economies is uncertain. The proposed boat harbor has not been funded, as yet, and no data was available which would enable predictions to be made as to its effect on the local economy and power requirements. Therefore a scenario including the possible development of such facilities was not included. PROPERTY OF; Alaska Po 334 Ww. Anchorage,