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HomeMy WebLinkAboutGoodnews Bay Reconnaissance Study of Energy Requirements & Alternatives 4-1981RECONNAISSANCE STUDY OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND ALTERNATIVES FOR GOODNEWS BAY Report Summary April, 1981 by Northern Technical Services and Van Gulik and Associates Anchorage, Alaska ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY RECONNAISSANCE STUDY OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND ALTERNATIVES FOR GOODNEWS BAY Report Summary April, 1981 by . Northern Technical Services and Van Gulik and Associates Anchorage,Alaska ERRATUM In the Introduction to this summary report, the second para- graph, first item on the first page should read as follows: - It was necessary to assume that the cost of diesel fuel would increase at a rate of 3.5% per year above the inflation rate. Introduction As you read this report, you will see that the results generally favor energy conservation (including the use of waste heat from diesel generators) with existing systems, as opposed to conver- sion to renewable energy alternatives. These results do not mean that renewable energy sources cannot be used in your com- munity, but rather that, under the conditions and assumptions used in the study, the alternatives appear to be at least as expensive as diesel generation as well as somewhat higher in risk. The abovementioned conclusions are actually best esti- mates based on reconnaissance work in your area. This work was essential to predict the cost using other sources of energy. The conclusions are based on past experience, present costs (of fuel, materials and labor) and estimates of what might reason- ably be expected to occur in future years. Some of the assumptions which had to be made in order to perform the economic analysis of the different alternatives include the following: * It was necessary to assume that the cost of diesel fuel would increase at a rate of 3.5% per year. * It was necessary to assume that the growth of the com- munity's population would increase at roughly the same rate that it has in past years and that the increase in community energy consumption would follow that rate of growth. * It was necessary to assume that the costs associated with maintenance and operation of an alternative energy conversion system would be an integral part of the annual cost. It was necessary to base cost estimates on present (state-of-the-art) technology since it is virtually impossible to predict future technical advances in sys- tems for the conversion of alternative energy resources into useful electricity. It was necessary to assume that most people would pre- fer continuously available electricity and that they would probably not be ready to accept the inconvenience of intermittant power (for instance, doing without elec-— tricity when there was too little wind for their wind generator to produce electricity.) It was necessary to assume that most people would prefer that a central "utility" provide them with elec- tricity rather than installing and operating their own system. If any of the above assumptions prove to be inaccurate or if their validity changes -- and this could easily happen in future years as the costs of the existing systems continue to increase -- alternatives which presently do not appear to be economically or technically feasible may become real options. Some examples of changes which could result in more favorable economics for the use of energy alternatives include the following: Fuel prices in the community could increase at faster rate than that assumed in this investigation. People in the community might decide to maintain and operate alternative energy conversion systems themselves, perhaps even trading their services within the community for subsistance commodities rather than cash. New inventions or improvements on present technology might make the cost ot using an alternative energy source much less expensive than is presently indicated. What this report means, then, is that * Energy conservation is certain to lead to some savings of energy and money. Energy conservation measures will continue to minimize costs in future years, no matter what sources of heat and electric power are in use. * There are some alternatives (presented in the summary, next section) which appear to be worthy of further investigation at this time. * It will be necessary to continue to look for ways to make the use of other alternative energy sources practical. It is important that you, the people who live in the community, and others with an interest in the community and the region (including government leaders and planners), read this report with the previous points in mind. You are most familiar with your region and can, with appropriate technical and tinancial support, make the best decisions tor your energy tuture. The authors of this report and the Alaska Power Authority hope that you will take the time to comment on the information presented here and point out any alternative ideas. In this way, we can be assured that future planning for energy projects will lead to the best possible options for your community. It should be noted that the information presented here is extracted from a much more detailed report "Reconnaissance Study of Energy Requirements and Alternatives for Togiak, Goodnews Bay, Scammon Bay and Grayling" and that additional detailed information is available. The Community of Goodnews Bay Goodnews Bay is a native Alaskan community of about 248 people, located approximately 45 miles west of Togiak and about 115 miles south ot Bethel, on Goodnews Bay. Access to Goodnews Bay is possible year round by air from Bethel or Dillingham. There is scheduled air service for passengers and mail delivery three times each week. The airstrip is 2,500 feet long and has a gravel surface. Surface transportation is possible by both sea and land. United Barge Lines and the North Star III both bring fuel and supplies to Goodnews each summer. Privately owned fishing boats provide additional summer trans- poration for the local residents and land transportation to Goodnews is possible by way of snow machines or dog team during the winter months. The Goodnews Bay economy is derived primarily from fishing. Local employment consists of a few jobs at the BIA school and state high school, the post office, seasonal cannery work and commercial tishing. There is a platinum mine about 12 miles away at Platinum, Alaska, but the mine currently provides little income for Goodnews residents. Local residents make baskets and dolls which are sold outside the village, while subsistance hunting and fishing are important contributors to the average household's non-cash income. The average income from all sources was $8,483 in 1977 for a household (averaging 3.4 people). The 1980 census will provide a more recent income figure when it becomes available, but the 1977 income figure is roughly indicative of the present level of cash economy. The population of Goodnews Bay has been relatively stable in recent years but has experienced a moderate growth since 1950 when an epidemic killed most of the school aged children in the village. Goodnews Bay Energy Use The energy input and end use for Goodnews Bay is shown in Table 1. The data presented in these tables and charts are based on 1979 energy consumption levels which is the last year for which complete data was available for this study. The major oil con- sumers in the village are the Alaska Village Electric Co-op, the residential and small commercial buildings which use oil primar- ily for heating, and the BIA school. The BIA school used most of their energy for heating and some energy for power generation (primarily to exercise the standby generators periodically to assure their ability to operate). No estimate was made on the amount of energy used for this purpose. The military used a small amount of oil for building heat. Propane is used in the village primarily for cooking. Gasoline is used in the village tor snowmobiles, fishing boats and motor bikes. Some small amount of driftwood is used for home heating, but the amount was insignificant compared to the amount of oil used in the village. Municipal and other public uses include energy for the water system (formerly Public Health Service). 'Goodnews Bay appears to have the lowest energy consumption per household for home heating. The consumption averages approxi- mately 670 gallons per household per year, compared to recently published figures for western Alaska villages which range from 1,000 to 1,500 gallons per year depending on house size and location. It is difficult to determine the accuracy of the volumes of fuel delivered to the community, though. (Fuel is also purchased from Platinum and possibly from other sources and is not readily quantifiable.) The AVEC generators at Goodnews had a low energy conversion etticiency ot 18.5%. The ratio of sales ot electric power to that generated was the highest of any village - approximately 97.7% of the energy generated was sold ENERGY INPUT AND END USE FOR GOODNEWS BAY Numbers in parentheses () are (1U0® Btu) ENERGY FORM DIESEL/ GASOLINE/ END #1 OIL AVGAS PROPANE ELECTRICITY USE Gallons Gallons Pounds Kilowatt Hours | Conversion to Elec- 30,5001 5,2002 tricity (4117.5) (17.8) Residential and 30,000 9,0003 104,5004 Small Commercial (4050.0) (195.0) (356.7) (Heat/Domestic) Municipal and other 1,600 5,5004 public (216.0) (18.8) L (non-transportation) | “Military 2,300 7 1,8004 |___(mon-transportation) (310.5) (6.1) _| Transportation 14,000 L (1750.0) ____| —_——_—__——— BIA School 24,000 108,0004 (non-transportation) (3240.0) (368.6) z 1 4 NOTES: 1 Gross generation from 30,700 gallons fuel oil was 225,000 Kwh for a conversion efficiency of 18.5% 2 Power consumed by the utility for station service (light, and system distribution losses mW Propane used solely tor cooking Net utility electrical sales in 1979 were 219,800 Kwh. TABLE 1 fuel pumping, etc.) compared to the average of other villages in the region of 83%. This variation could be explained if the gross meter did not measure the energy used for station's own service in the other communities. The total amount of waste heat that can be recovered or reduced in the village consists of the heat from the diesel generators, the losses in the home heating combustion process and energy losses through the village building envelopes. \ Existing Power Facilities All electricity in Goodnews Bay is diesel generated. The fol- lowing table summarizes existing generating capacity. VILLAGE OWNER NO. SIZE | MAKE/MODEL VOLTAGE TOTAL Goodnews Bay AVEC 2 112.5 KATO 1255X9E 120/240,19 a 75 Allis Chalmers 120/240,19 300 BIA 2 35 N/A 120/240,19 70 H.S. x 75 N/A 120/240,19 75 Existing Heating Facilities The largest consumers of fuel tor space heating are the communi- ty schools. The BIA school uses oil-fired boilers to heat water for distribution to its buildings for circulating hot water systems. Water for domestic use and showers is heated by heat exchangers in the same boilers. The new state high school has a heating system which utilizes both oil-fired boilers and an oil fueled hot air furnace. The same school has an additional boiler which uses oil to heat domestic hot water. These large consumers of oil for hot water heating systems are prime candidates for generation of waste or cogenerated, heat, from power production. Residential and other small buildings within the community are generally heated with simple drip type 50-100,000 Btu oil burner stoves. Heat output from these stoves is difficult to control; the lowest settings generally provide more heat than is required in the months with the fewest heating degree days, when only minimal heat is required. Many homes make use of oil-fired cook stoves for space heating in addition to cooking and water heating. Homes in the community generally have no means of heat distribution other than radiation and convection from the stove itself. Summary of Existing Conditions Goodnews Bay is presently dependent upon tuel oil to provide space and water heating, and electricity. A small amount of drittwood is used in steam baths, but this fuel use is negli- gible compared to other fuel consumption. Fuel delivery is by barge out of Bethel and is sensitive to possible supply disrup- tions due to a variety of outside influences. The community consumed about 88,400 gallons of fuel oil during 1980. Of this total, 30,000 gallons were consumed for space heating in residential and small commercial buildings. 27,900 gallons was used for other (government and school) space heating, and 30,500 gallons was used in the production of 104,500 KWh electricity for the residential sector out of a total of 225,000 Kwh used in the entire community. The peak community demand is presently 75 Kw. It was observed that the homes generally have a high rate ot heat loss and are badly in need of weatherization. Electric bills consume about 8% of an average household's cash income, while heating fuel costs consumes about 9%. The total energy bill is thus 17% of the average household's income. The dependence upon fuel oil combined with the high costs of energy and the low cash income levels confirm that Goodnews Bay is in need of energy relief and decreased electic costs. Projects Which Will Influence Goodnews Bay's Future Energy Needs A new state high school has been built in Goodnews Bay. Calendar year 1981 will be the first full year of operation. Population Growth Best estimates of the population growth of Goodnews Bay indicate just over 350 people by the year 2000 (see graph, Figure 1). Community Meeting The Mayor of Goodnews Bay, Joe Martin, was contacted by telephone prior to the site visit. Project personnel told him about the project and asked him to invite the community to a public meeting to discuss energy alternatives. Although an important basketball tournament was underway at the time scheduled for the meeting, project personnel were pleased that several people were able to take the time to attend the community meeting. Additionally, project personnel did talk to quite a few residents while inspecting building construction and community facilities. “Those present at the meeting were: Ina Small, Joe Martin (Mayor), Dan Schouten, James Roberts, and Julia Chianglak. All of these people were informative and interested in pursuing al- ternative means of power production for the community. Project personnel and attendees discussed available resources and learned more about local practices. The mayor expressed preference for the wind generation over hydroelectric generation. Those present at the meeting did mention another creek which they thought might be a better source of hydro power. It is Barnham Creek located near Breadpan Mountain. Project personnel were also told that the people who live here prefer no development of oil and gas resources in their area. POPULATION (Y) 7 7 350 a FIGURE | Yo GOODNEWS BAY J 300 250 200 ++ 150 x X ACTUAL DATA, ISER & U.S. CENSUS ——— PROJECTION 100 ++ 50 4- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 YEARS FROM 1930 (Xx) = 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR Alternative Energy Resources for Goodnews Bay Energy Conservation Energy conservation is usually one of the most cost effective and readily available methods for reducing energy consumption and costs. Energy conservation herein means retro-fitting or modifying any existing heat process. This can be done by increasing combustion efficiency, or by reducing the losses from the heat using process. Villages in western Alaska can benefit from the energy conservation practices which relate primarily to weatherization and improved combustion etticiency. The homes in the study villages averaged 750 square feet in size, were single story, built on piles, with exposed floors. Some of them had skirts around the piling to reduce cold air circulation under the building. If these buildings are occupied by a family present during_the day, then oil consumption is typically on the order of 150 gallons per month in the colder months, resulting in heating costs close to $300. The technology to reduce energy consumption in these homes exists and could be economically applied in the near term. The requirements are simple, and there should be no environmental or health impacts. _Presently, the AVEC generators at Goodnews Bay. produce about 3,350 x 106 Btu/year waste heat. Of this total, approximately 2,060 x 106 Btu/year are recoverable. This figure is equivalent to halt ot the tuel oil Btu input tor residential heating or all of the heat delivered to the residential sector (when conversion efficiencies are considered). The costs of a district heating system to supply this heat to the entire community are quite high, and heat would be lost in transmission over the distances between houses. The generators at Goodnews are located near the BIA school. It is anticipated that the school could be a consumer of the generator waste heat in the near future. The school presently consumes 3,240 x 10° Btu/year in fuel input, or 1,944 x 106 Btu/year delivered by means of a circulating hot water system. Thus, there is a good match between waste heat production and the heat demand. Mini- Mal system modifications would allow the BIA school to utilize generator waste heat. Wind Only a limited amount of wind data is available for estimating the Goodnews Bay wind resource. Some recorded wind data tor Platinum is available for the period of April, 1939, through March of 1941. The total recording period was 500 days and the wind distribution was as follows: Mph & Calm 5 4-15 51 16-31 39 32-47 5 over 47 <1% The weighted mean of these winds is 13.1 mph. Difficulties in extrapolating this data to Goodnews Bay: include: o Shorter recording period than statistically desirable o No indication of seasonal wind distribution o Different topography and wind exposure at Platinum as opposed to Goodnews Bay A small amount of additional data is available for nearby Kwigillingok. This data is available for a period of one month only, April-May of 1980. The mean wind speed during that recording period was 13.56 mph. Winds in this region ot the state are said to be "weak and persistent" during the summer months but much stronger during the winter months. Winter periods of high winds (60-70 mph) for several days at a time have been described. This is likely to indicate a good match of wind resource availability and electric load and should allow economy of scale with minimal storage. The local people describe Goodnews Bay as being a very windy loca- tion. The principal of the BIA school, began continuous re- cording of wind at Goodnews in 1980. His strip chart recordings are sent to BIA regional offices in Bethel and Juneau. (An attempt to obtain reduced data from the BIA was unsuccessful. ) This program of recording should be encouraged and possibly assisted by the Power Authority, since it will provide extremely valuable data tor tuture planning. Other BIA schools partici- pating in this program are: Alakanak, Kwethluk, Kwigillingole, Nightmute, Tununak and Chefornak. While additional data is required, the wind resource at Goodnews Bay appears to be of a magnitude worthy of further considera- tion. Hydropower The stream south of Chawekat Mountain was analyzed. The drainage area above a proposed diversion dam is 3 square miles. U.S.G.S. Coefficients Flow Mean annual low monthly 0.8 cfs/mi2 2 1/2 cfs Mean annual 1.5 '5 1/2 Mean annual peak 10 30 At a point downstream of the dam site, draining an area of 5 sq. mi., APA estimated a discharge of 15 cfs on August 6, 1979, following several days of rain. There was no indication given of how this flow compared to the mean annual but it can be assumed that it is in the range between the mean annual and mean annual peak. Converting to a unit runoff of 3 cfs/mi2 shows that it does fall within these limits. As flimsy as this may seem, it is the only available means to verify the above discharge values. Based upon results of this preliminary analysis and additional discouraging information from the Corps of Engineers recent in- vestigation performed by R. W. Beck (Ret. personal communication, Corps personnel), it is unlikely that hydroelectric generation will be an available alternative for Goodnews Bay. Peat Goodnews Bay falls within a region having only a medium probabil- ity of occurance of an organic soil overlay. Additionally, the probability of the peat having a heating value in excess of 8000 Btu's per dry pound is also rather low. Due to the existance of active drainages and an unfavorable geological setting, it is felt that the peat in this area available for fuel use would probably have a heating value less than 5,000 or 6,000 Btu's per dry pound. Solar Solar incidence at Goodnews Bay is concentrated in the summer months. Although lacking in intensity, the daily solar input trom long summer daylight hours is considerable. Until annual storage becomes technically and economically feasible, it is not anticipated that solar energy will be competitive with other energy sources for the production of power. However, housing design can make use of passive solar input. Energy Alternatives for Goodnews Bay The following alternative plans have been analyzed for Goodnews Bay as the most likely alternatives to present practices. Goodnews Bay Alternative Plan A Waste heat capture was selected as the most likely alternative to reduce energy costs in the village for the following reasons: 1. The BIA school is located wtihin 250 feet of the AVEC generators. 2. The waste heat can provide all the heating energy for the school trom the tirst year, on the following basis: a. Heat required = Oil consumed x combustion efficiency In 1979 Heat Required = 3,248 x 106(.64) = 2073 x 106 Btu/yr b. Heat availble = 50% of AVEC Oil consumption Heat available = 4117.5(.5) = 2059 x 106 Btu/yr 3. The heat demand of the school and the electrical demand . of the village are proportional to each other resulting in maximum waste heat capture benefits over an annual period. 4. The offset value of the fuel saved can be credited to AVEC fuel cost. (Note: For simplified economic analysis the offset is shown as a reduction of heating oil in the village.) 5. The BIA school has radiators and heat exchangers that are compatible with the waste heat capture plan resulting in lower system cost. Goodnews Bay Alternative Plan B This alternative assumes the installation of four (4) l10KW wind generators with synchronous AC output capable of operation in parallel with the diesel generator. The generators are assumed to each provide 25,000 KWh/year to the system in a wind regime of 13 mph. In the event the system demand for energy is less than the output of the wind machines, a control system will be installed to sequentially shut down the wind generator. Wind power generation for this case is added to the system during 1981 and 1990 and displaces 100,000 and 150,000 kwh/yr, respectively. The power generation provided by wind is assumed to be constant following installation of the systems. Costs and Benefits of the Proposed Alternatives Economic analysis of the proposed waste heat capture system for Goodnews Bay indicates that savings over the cost of present diesel generation without waste heat capture were likely. For this reason Plan A is deemed worthy of further detailed techni- cal and economic analysis. Plan B, however, appears to be only marginally feasible. While O & M costs are low, and fuel costs for wind systems are elimi- nated, the relative positive net benefit over the existing system appears to be small. More detailed examination of the system may reveal negative results. Summary of Recommendations for Goodnews Bay Preterred Energy Alter- native (in order of earliest feasibility) Recommended Resource Assessments and Feasibility Studies 1. Energy conservation « building insulation - building envelope infiltration « improved combustion No resource assessment or feasibili- ty study indicated; immediate action required to bring Energy Audit and/ or weatherization program to this community. 2. Waste heat capture Obtain baseline data on heat avail- ability for specific generators; pertorm preliminary design and de- tailed feasibility study. 3. Wind energy conversion Work with BIA wind data collection program to obtain existing data as it becomes available; perform opti- mization and more detailed feasibil- ity studies on this alternative, . since proposed configuration was only marginally feasible in this analysis; install additional ane- mometers for determination of wind patterns.