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Home My WebLink AboutAngoon Power Supply Study 11-1998a p Ree Onetety Engineering Company Neher pe! aoe fe The Financial Engineering Company ANGOON POWER SUPPLY STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF SECTIONS SECTION TITLE PAGE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1 I INTRODUCTION I-1 Il POWER REQUIREMENTS II-1 Ill EXISTING POWER SUPPLY IIl-1 IV POTENTIAL RESOURCES IV-1 Vv ANALYSIS V-1 VI UTILITY STRUCTURE VI-1 VII OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS VII-1 LIST OF TABLES TABLE# TITLE PAGE ES-1 Summary of Estimated Rates ES-1 1 Comparative Electricity Rates I-1 2 Angoon Population History II-1 3 Selected Angoon Statistics II-2 4 Installed Capacity in Angoon Ill-1 5 Internal Combustion Alternative Costs IV-1 6 Combustion Turbine Alternative Costs IV-2 7 Coal Resource Alternative Costs IV-3 8 Fuel Cell Alternative Costs IV-4 9 Wind Resource Alternative Costs IV-5 10 Energy Production — Wind Resource IV-5 11 Summary of Analysis Results V-8/9 12 Historical Energy Requirements VI-2 13 T-HREA Expenses VI-3 14 AP&T Rates in Southeast Alaska VI-5S 15 Costs of Selected Utilities VI-6 16 Net Book Value of T-HREA Assets in Angoon VI-7 17 Amortization of Purchase Price (Net Book Value) VI-8 18 Summary of Estimated Rates VI-9 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE # TITLE PAGE 1 Monthly Peak Distribution Il-4 2 Monthly Energy Distribution II-5 3 Adequacy of Existing Capacity III-3 LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX TITLE A B Cc Combustion Turbines Coal Financial Analysis EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION The village of Angoon, Alaska, is the only permanent settlement on Admiralty Island in Southeast Alaska. The village is electrically isolated from other sources of generation and must rely exclusively on diesel generation. In an effort to reduce power supply costs, it became a member of the Tlingit & Haida Regional Electrical Authority (“T-HREA”) to take advantage of T-HREA’s ability to allocate administrative and other costs among its six member villages. T-HREA’s rates, however, are some’ of the highest in the region and T-HREA is investigating methods to lower its costs. Kootznoowoo Incorporated, a village corporation located in Angoon, wishes to independently investigate the power supply options available in Angoon. These options include not only power supply but also utility structures, and this report summarizes the analysis and findings regarding these options. POWER REQUIREMENTS During the early- to mid-1990’s, T-HREA experienced increasing sales each year in Angoon. This growth, however, stopped in 1997 when sales dropped by approximately 10 percent from 1996. Sales in 1998 appear that they will be even lower as year-to-date sales are less than the amount incurred during the same period in 1997. Detailed projections of future power requirements are beyond the scope of this study. Therefore, the analysis is based on constant sales from 1997 — 1999 and a | percent annual growth rate thereafter. Other load growth assumptions are also used to test the sensitivity of the results. POWER SUPPLY T-HREA owns and operates three diesel-fueled internal combustion generators in Angoon with a combined capacity of 1,265 kilowatts. However, a new 550-kilowatt generator is being installed that will replace the two oldest units. At that time, there will be 1,115 kilowatts of installed capacity in the village. Firm capacity, the amount available if the largest unit is out for maintenance, will be 550 kilowatts. With a | percent increase in peak requirements, firm capacity is sufficient until 2027. A 2 percent annual load growth results in inadequate reserve margins by 2014. These comparisons are, however, based on the existing units not being retired. These resources typically have service lives of about 150,000 operating hours, at which time the units can undergo costly overhauls or be replaced. Angoon Power Supply Study Page ES-1 Even though T-HREA relies exclusively on internal combustion engines in Angoon, a number of other generating technologies exist that can be used. These resources, if shown to have economic benefits, can be implemented to immediately replace existing diesel generation, or to replace it at a time when there is inadequate reserve capacity due to load growth or existing resources being retired. Several different resources were evaluated for this study under various input assumptions, and a detailed description of the assumptions and results are provided in Section V of this report. Of all the resources evaluated, continued use of internal combustion resources appear to be the most economic. If, however, a hydroelectric resource can be developed that would provide most of Angoon’s power supply for a total development cost of approximately $4 million, then it would provide economic benefits. Section VII provides specific details under what circumstances a hydroelectric resource would be the most economic. UTILITY STRUCTURE Power supply will play a significant role in determining rates in Angoon, but utility structure will also be important. A number of alternatives are available, and none precludes any particular type of resource ownership. An extensive review of these combinations should be conducted before any decisions are made, and such a review is beyond the scope of this study. However in order to focus the analysis, a snapshot of what current rates might be under various utility structures was made. Preliminary estimates of electric rates under four separate utility structures were estimated, and details of these estimates are provided in Section VI of this report. The structures included: 1) continued membership in T-HREA, 2) continued membership in T-HREA but assuming T-HREA is bought by Kwaan Power & Light, 3) as a separate village served by Alaska Power & Telephone, and 4) as a new, village- or corporation-owned utility. The resulting estimates are as provided in Table ES-1. Table ES-1 Summary of Estimated Rates (cents/kilowatt-hour) Estimated Utility Stucture Rate Stand-Alone Utility * Has more potential of being higher than the amount shown than other structures due to reasons noted in Section VI. Angoon Power Supply Study Page ES-2 OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS Based on the analysis conducted and summarized within this report, several observations and conclusions can be made. These include: Previous studies have indicated that a tidal/diesel combination may provide economic benefits. These studies are, however, out-of-date, and revised construction/operating costs with reasonable accuracy are not available. Small coal and combustion turbine resources do not show economic benefits under any of the assumptions considered. The total costs of a hydroelectric resource can be no greater than about $4 million for the base case assumptions. The maximum hydroelectric project cost could be as little as $3.3 million or as much as $5.1 million depending on the assumptions used. Grants have been obtained recently by other Alaska native corporations to assist in the development of energy projects. If grant money was obtained by Kootznoowoo, this could significantly change the resource economics summarized herein. Even if a hydroelectric resource can be developed at a price stated above and proves to be economic in the long-term, rates can be significantly higher in the short term due to the capital intensity of the resource and levelized amortization. The preliminary analysis has shown that there are alternatives to continued membership in T-HREA that may lower the cost of power in Angoon. T-HREA’s right to provide service to the residents and businesses in Angoon is contained in its Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity. Transfer of this certificate to another entity will require APUC hearings and can be costly. Such costs have not been included in the analysis at this time and would add to the estimated rates for the AP&T and Stand-alone utility. Even though the costs of a new, stand-alone utility are fairly high, it may still provide economic benefits if the owner is Angoon and existing City staff and equipment can be used. This would effectively lower the rates for other City services. Construction of a hydroelectric project by Kootznoowoo does not necessarily preclude any of the utility structures investigated. The use of postage stamp rates by T-HREA may or may not benefit Angoon if a hydroelectric project was developed. If the costs are higher than the alternative in the short term, as frequently occurs with capital-intensive projects, then the postage stamp rate would spread these higher costs among all T-HREA ratepayers. However if the resource results in lower costs, this would also be enjoyed by all T-HREA ratepayers. Angoon Power Supply Study Page ES - 3 I. INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW Located on the west side of Admiralty Island, the village of Angoon, Alaska, is the only permanent settlement on the island. Due to its size and location, Angoon is electrically isolated from other communities and relies on diesel-fueled generation for its power requirements. The resulting high cost of electricity has led the residents to seek methods to reduce power supply and delivery costs. One method has been to become members of the Tlingit & Haida Regional Electrical Authority (“T-HREA”) system. T-HREA provides electric service to six member villages in southeast Alaska, and certain costs can be shared by all consumers. T-HREA’s generation, however, is comprised primarily of diesel generation; and administrative costs are also relatively high. Therefore as shown in Table 1, T-HREA’s rates are one of the highest in Southeast Alaska. The summary in Table 1 is based on the September 1996 Alaska Electric Power Statistics, the last year the publication was prepared. Table 1 Comparative Electricity Rates (cents/kilowatt-hour) Tenakee Springs 350] T-HREA 30.3 Thorne Bay 25.0 Elfin Cove 22.4 Coffman Cove 22.2 AP&T - Hollis 19.2 Yakutat 18.8 AP&T - Hydaburg 18.1 Haines 15.6 AP&T - Craig 14.8 AP&T - Skagway 14.0 Pelican 13.8 Source: Alaska Electric Power Statistics, 1960-1995, Division of Community and Regional Affairs Angoon Power Supply Study Pagel-1 Although T-HREA is investigating methods to lower its costs, Kootznoowoo Incorporated (“Kootznoowoo”), a village corporation established under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act, wishes to independently investigate the power supply options available in Angoon. Such options include not only the source of generation but also the utility structure used in delivering the power to the consumers. Once these options are identified and evaluated, Kootznoowoo can take the appropriate steps to ensure that reasonably priced and reliable power can be made available to the residents and businesses of Angoon. This report provides a summary of the analyses performed to evaluate the various power supply options available to Angoon. Sections II - V focus on the power supply itself while Section VI focuses on the utility structure. A summary of findings is provided in Section VII. Angoon Power Supply Study Page 1-2 Il. POWER REQUIREMENTS GENERAL ECONOMY Angoon is a Second Class City located on the west side of Admiralty Island, approximately 60 miles southwest of Juneau. It is accessible by air or water only; and air traffic must be by float plane. Both scheduled and charter air services are available, and the State ferry system provides year-round service. There is also monthly barge service from Seattle. The primary employer in Angoon is the Chatham School District which provides nearly one half of the total jobs in the area. Commercial fishing is also a major source of income, and logging on nearby Prince of Wales Island provides occasional jobs. Unemployment in 1990 was reported at 35.1 percent. Since 1940, population has increased at an average of 1.0 percent per year. However as seen in Table 2, this growth has not been relatively steady as there have been periods of high growth followed by declines. Between 1990 and 1997, population has decreased by a small amount. Table 2 Angoon Population History Year Source: Division of Community and Regional Affairs HISTORICAL POWER REQUIREMENTS Table 3 provides power requirement and customer statistics for the period 1992 — 1997. Energy sales increased each year until 1997 when sales decreased by 10 percent. Sales for 1998 may be even lower as January — May sales are less than the amount incurred during the same period in 1997 (741,290 kilowatt hours vs. 798,188 kilowatt hours). Angoon Power Supply Study Page Il-1 Table 3 Selected Angoon Statistics 19920 s19888 as 18K 895 186s 1087 Annual System Peak (kW) 373 368 410 442 426 414 Energy Sales (MWh): Residential 1,006 1,000 1,020 1,103 1,158 1,089 Small Commercial 356 362 364 345 357 264 Large Commercial 269 272 261 236 245 222 Small Community 90 194 185 64 55 56 Large Community - - - 121 125 108 Total Sales 1,722 1,828 1,830 1,870 1,939 1,740 Street Lights N/A 55 53 52 49 49 Station Use/Losses N/A 98 103 116 156 201 Total Requirements N/A 1,980 1,987 2,038 2,144 1,990 Number of Customers (Annual Average): Residential 162 162 165 170 172 184 Small Commercial 25 26 24 22 25 25 Large Commercial 2) 2 2 3 4 5) Small Community 6 7 8 5 5 5 Large Community : : : 2 2 4 Total 195 197 199 202 208 220 Usage (kWh/Customer/Y ear) Residential 6,219 6,189 6,183 6,497 6,744 5,926 Small Commercial 14,210 13,909 15,075 15,732 14,316 10,523 Large Commercial 134,600 136,120 111,806 74,682 69,965 74,119 Small Community 14,638 27,356 23,878 12,478 10,983 11,272 Large Community - - - 65,795 53,380 30,870 Total 8,830 9,293 9,187 9,260 9,346 7,895 Source: T-HREA Power requirements are somewhat seasonal with the peak demand occurring during the winter months. Figures | and 2 at the end of this section provide the monthly distribution of the peak and energy requirements from 1992 through 1997. FUTURE POWER REQUIREMENTS Detailed projections of power requirements are beyond the scope of this study. Therefore in lieu of detailed projections, future power requirements are assumed to remain constant at 1997 levels for two years. At that time, loads are assumed to increase at 1 percent annually. Certain facilities may be constructed or events may occur in the area that would cause peak and energy requirements to increase above that assumed in the analysis. These include, but Angoon Power Supply Study Page II - 2 are not limited to, an aircraft maintenance facility, a State marine ferry facility, and a recent home site allocation. Whether or not any of these are developed remains unclear, nor are detailed load estimates available. Therefore, the sensitivity of the results will be tested to the inclusion of relatively large, generic loads as well as various growth rates of the existing loads. Specific loads and growth rates used for these alternative assumptions are described in greater detail in Section V. Angoon Power Supply Study Page II - 3 Apnig 4jddng 4amog uoosup b- I] 280g 120.0% 5 100.0% + 80.0% - 60.0% + 40.0% 20.0% Figure 1 Monthly Peak Distribution (Percent of Annual Peak) —a— 1997 ee Average 0.0% A Oct ee eae Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Apnig 4jddng sanog uoozup §- [1 80g 10.0% + 8.0% + 6.0% + 4.0% - 2.0% 0.0% Figure 2 Monthly Energy Distribution (Percent of Annual Total) es — es a Jan Feb Mar Ill. EXISTING POWER SUPPLY INSTALLED CAPACITY In order to provide for the power requirements in Angoon, T-HREA owns and operates three diesel-fueled internal combustion generators with a combined capacity of 1,265 kilowatts. However, two of these units are to be replaced later this year by a new 550-kilowatt unit. At that time, the installed capacity in Angoon will be 1,115 kilowatts. (See Table 4.) Table 4 Installed Capacity in Angoon (kilowatts) Existing | Revised Unit Capacity Capacity D379 1981 jase OVERHAUL/REPLACEMENT POLICIES T-HREA maintains its generators on schedules similar to those recommended by the equipment manufacture. At 11,000 operating hours, a top-end overhaul is performed; and at 22,000 operating hours, an in-frame overhaul is performed. This cycle is then repeated until the unit is taken out of service. Minor replacements and adjustments are accomplished on other established schedules. Additionally, oil analysis is used to monitor engine components in between scheduled overhauls. Diesel generators of this size should last, if properly maintained, through several maintenance cycles; and 150,000 or more operating hours are within expectations. Eventually, the engine block is expected to be fairly worn and may have to be replaced. The decision to rebuild the engine block or replace the unit altogether will depend on a number of factors including: ¢ Cost of the rebuild e Cost of the new resource e Relative difference in maintenance costs between the new and old units Angoon Power Supply Study Page III - 1 e Difference in fuel efficiencies e Load levels e Air quality operating permit restrictions ADEQUACY OF CAPACITY Figure 3 shows the firm capacity available in Angoon as compared to peak requirements over the next 30 years. Firm capacity in this case is defined as total installed capacity less the capacity of the largest unit. This allows load to be met even if the largest unit is unavailable due to scheduled or unscheduled outages. Figure 3 shows that the existing capacity is sufficient to meet load through 2027 if peak requirements increase at 1 percent annually. However, if the resources are retired prior to then or loads increase at a greater rate, then capacity shortfalls would occur prior to 2027. A 2 percent load growth results in capacity shortfalls after 2014. Based on these load growth assumptions, there is sufficient capacity for a number of years. Therefore, alternative resources will provide only energy benefits in the early years. It is only with the inclusion of new, large loads that alternative resources will provide both capacity and energy benefits and larger construction costs can be supported. Angoon Power Supply Study Page Ill - 2 CZ LLL | | t @, WZ “Qs | | | _LIIZZLZZZZZLLZLILLL LILLE , | f LLL LAL LEER LEE 5 | CZIZZZIXIEIILIIIER ILI | e r | : | | L fs] s | | r e 5 F | | z WILLE LLL LLM TLE 3 | | | 7 | | fF x | E a | | b | | |g ey | 1 ? Ig | ' = | : 2 | : | | o | zs > | ‘ | | f 8 =, | —_ —_ S an dl r S| : | s ‘ oO | | b . 2 | : z ; 2 $ | | | b (as 5 2) a | Ps ce S | = | 2 2 | | | ¢ | a 3 | . je < j | | | r od iy | 1% | | | b 4 ~ 2 | | i] 3 | | S| | | fF 5 ; . z | | le | | T j " | | : : : | | | | r Ea || a | | | r a _ ieee - - Q, | | + + + “+ & Ox oS S So So So Se oy So S oS J oS So Cy. So. co oO vt N 8 Angoon Power Supply Study Page III - 3 IV. POTENTIAL RESOURCES GENERAL The comparison of peak loads and installed capacity in the previous section showed that with a 1 percent load growth, there is sufficient capacity until 2027. However, existing resources may be retired prior to then or loads may increase at a greater rate; and capacity additions may be required. Furthermore, there may be resources with lower operating costs such that economic benefits might exist even if existing resources are sufficient. This section provides a description of the various resource alternatives available in Angoon. INTERNAL COMBUSTION The Base Case in the analysis described in greater detail in the next section assumes continued reliance on diesel-fueled internal combustion generators. T-HREA’s latest 550- kilowatt unit was acquired at a cost of $280,000 including installation and switchgear. From this and other data, the following cost estimates were developed. Table 5 Internal Combustion Alternative Costs $ 280,000 $ 350,000 $ 425,000 $ 500,000 COMBUSTION TURBINE Based on the same technology as jet aircraft engines, combustion turbines have an extensive history of providing electric power. With advances in technology, turbines have become more efficient; and units with fairly small generating capacities are now available. Although the smaller units typically use more fuel per kilowatt of output than internal combustion resources, maintenance costs and emissions are usually lower for turbines. Therefore under certain operating conditions, a combustion turbine may provide a less expensive source of power than internal combustion engines. For purposes of this analysis, information was obtained for a 508-kilowatt Pratt & Whitney turbine. This information is summarized in Table 6 and provided in more detail in Appendix A to this report. Angoon Power Supply Study Page lV-1 Table 6 Combustion Turbine Alternative Costs Base Rating 508 kW Peak Rating 567 kW Delivered Cost $ 350,000 Installation 25,000 Total Cost $ 375,000 Non-fuel operations (S/operating hour) $ 5.00 COAL The State of Alaska’s Division of Energy (“DOE”) recently commissioned a study to estimate construction and operating costs of coal-fired resources with relatively small generating capacities. The study resulted in the development of a computer model which provides cost estimates for resource sizes specified by the user. Although cost per kilowatt of installed capacity will decrease as resource size increases, cost per kilowatt-hour of generation will decrease only if the additional amount of available energy can be used. An installed capacity of 500 kilowatts was selected on a preliminary basis for the analysis. Costs/kilowatt for resource sizes below this amount were felt to be too high, and resource sizes above this amount were felt to have too much unusable energy to be economic. More refined analysis can be performed regarding the optimum resource size if the preliminary results appear to be favorable. Table 7 provides a summary of construction and operating costs used in the analysis, and details of these estimates are provided in Appendix B to this report. For purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that the existing power plant staff can operate the coal resource. Therefore the incremental cost of operations is assumed to be zero. A separate report for the DOE provided estimates of coal prices from various operating and potential mines delivered to various locations in Alaska.! Operating mines included the Healy mine approximately 80 miles southwest of Fairbanks and the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana. The Powder River site was assumed to be transported by rail to Vancouver, B.C. where it would then be barged north. Although specific costs were not provided for destinations in Southeast Alaska, such costs could be interpolated from the presented data. Based on this information, the Powder River Basin mine was estimated to provide the least-cost coal to Angoon of the operating mines included in the analysis. (See Appendix B to this report.) " Domestic Coal Handling Study, Northern Economics, October 1997. Angoon Power Supply Study Page IV-2 Table 7 Coal Resource Alternative Costs Capacity (Net) 500 kW Construction Cost $2.20 million Efficiency 27,920 BTU/kWh Fuel: Cost $53.40 /ton Energy Content 8,500 BTU/Ib Limestone 10% of fuel costs Ash: Formation 10% of coal weight Removal $20 /ton Annual Operating Costs: Parts/Supplies $ 83,000 Utilities $ 21,000 Incremental Operations $ - The combustion technology included in the construction cost estimates is a fluidized-bed system such that several different types of fuels can be used including diesel. However based on the estimated coal costs described above, coal would be less expensive than diesel. Therefore, coal was the fuel assumed in the analysis. FUEL CELL Fuel cells have been in existence for a number of years but on a fairly limited scale. Similar to a battery, a fuel cell produces power through chemical reactions. A clean, hydrogen-rich fuel, such as natural gas or propane, reacts with oxygen in the atmosphere to produce electricity. Heat and water are the primary by-products which can be used for other purposes. Very small amounts of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide are also emitted. Fuel cells have been used extensively in the space program but have until recently seen limited commercial applications. A number of utilities are now investigating the merits of fuel cells, but benefits are typically dependent on: e Use of the heat produced e Access to a source of clean fuel e Requirements for quality power Construction and operating cost estimates for a 200-kilowatt fuel cell are provided in Table 8. Angoon Power Supply Study Page IV -3 Table 8 Fuel Cell Alternative Costs (All data per 200-kilowatt unit) Installed Capacity 200 kilowatts Cost per Unit: Purchase Price (FOB Connecticut) $700,000 Shipping 10,000 Installation/Engineering 75,000 Total Installed Cost $785,000 Annual Operating Cost (excluding fuel) $25,000 Fuel Consumption at Rated Output:! Propane 18.6 gal/hour Natural Gas 1,700 cubic feet/hour 1 Based on 40 percent efficiency and heat contents of propane and natural gas of 91,850 BTU/gallon and 1,000 BTU/cubic foot, respectively. Past conversations with equipment suppliers have revealed that only limited research is being conducted regarding liquid fuels, and fuel cells at the present rely on natural gas, propane, methane, and industrial waste hydrogen. Therefore, new fuel storage facilities would have to be constructed in Angoon. Permitting and construction costs of the fuel storage facilities are not included in the above cost estimates and could increase the overall installed costs significantly. WIND Wind turbines can provide energy at little or no variable cost of generation if a suitable site can be found. Wind conditions that are typically sought include: e Sustained wind speed, e Wind speeds less than the design shut-down speed, and e Minimal directional shifts. Wind turbines, however, have a number of disadvantages including high installation costs and a history of somewhat unreliable operations. Furthermore, other resources must be maintained for operations during periods when wind speeds and other factors limit production. Recently, Kotzebue Electric Association (“KEA”) constructed three 66-kilowatt turbines to supplement their diesel-fueled generation. The first of these units was placed in operation in May 1997 and the other two in July 1997. KEA experienced problems initially but has had reliable operations since November. KEA plans to install seven more turbines this year, and the entire project is being paid with federal and state funding as well as KEA’s own funds. Based on the construction costs experienced by KEA and other data, the following estimates were developed for three turbines, each with a rated capacity of 66 kilowatts. Angoon Power Supply Study Page lV-4 1g Table 9 Wind Resource Alternative Costs Installed Capacity (3 @ 66 KW)... 198 kilowatts Construction Cost: Turbines... $198,000 Transformers/Connectors.. 12,000 Crane Rental .. 3,000 Foundations.... 15,000 30,000 $258,000 Operating Costs.. $25/kW-year Average annual wind velocities were available for several locations in Southeast Alaska, and these are provided in Table 10. However, it is important to note that prevailing wind conditions can vary considerably within relatively small areas, and data collected for one site may not be applicable to another. Wind velocity data is not available for Angoon, however, we understand that local wind are not particularly strong or consistent. Therefore although a wind resource is considered in the analysis in the next section, the results should be considered very preliminary subject to review of both construction costs estimates and wind velocities. Table 10 Energy Production — Wind Resource (Per 66-kilowatt Turbine) Avg Annual Est. Annual Wind Speed @ Energy @ Avg 10 meters Wind Speed Site (m/s) (MWh) Annette Airport.. 48 75 Gustavus. 3.2 bd Haines ..... 4.1 40 Juneau Airport 4.0 40 Petersburg Airport. 2.6 ® Sitka Airport. 3.0 . Yakutat Airport.. 3.4 = * Average annual wind speed below cut-in speed of turbines and estimated energy not available. HYDROELECTRIC Several potential hydroelectric sites exist near Angoon including Favorite Bay and Thayer Creek. Both of these sites were evaluated by the State of Alaska’s Division of Energy and Power Development in 1981 but were not found to be economic under the development Angoon Power Supply Study Page lV-5 concepts proposed at the time. Since then, a number of factors have changed; and the project configurations are probably not the most economical. More recently, The GH Group, Inc., has investigated a run-of-river development on Thayer Creek consisting of a low diversion dam, long pipeline and penstock, powerhouse, and 12.5- kV overhead transmission line. Cost estimates for that arrangement are not available, however, it would appear to have a greater possibility of favorable economics than that considered in the 1981 studies. Future investigations of Thayer Creek should focus on a similar arrangement. Since cost estimates for alternative configurations are not available at this time, the analyses conducted for this report have been directed towards determining the allowable capital cost of a hydroelectric development to be economic. This will be described in greater detail in Section V. TIDAL The 1981 Division of Energy report also evaluated a resource that would generate electric power from tidal currents in the area. Since tidal flows are cyclical and vary throughout the day, this type of resource would have to be supplemented from some other form of reliable energy. Of the resources evaluated in the report, the tidal resource supplemented with diesel power provided the most economic benefits under the assumptions used. The tidal resource evaluated in the 1981 Division of Energy Report considered use of the tidal currents, which are very strong in the channel near Turn Point. Tidal power development is quite rare, and use of tidal currents rather than the rise and fall of the tides is even rarer, to the point of even being experimental. The more conventional approach of using the rise and fall of the tides does not appear to have been examined, even though the Kootznahoo Inlet/Favorite Bay complex appears to offer significant potential for that kind of tidal development. Nevertheless, the cost of a tidal power development can be expected to be quite high because of the small capacity, and would not likely be economical unless substantial grants are obtained. Recently, Tidal Electric/Alaska was awarded a $250,000 grant from the State of Alaska to investigate the feasibility of a tidal resource in Cordova. The study is in its preliminary stages at this time. Given the speculative nature of both costs and operations, tidal resources represent considerable financial risk to a developer. Consequently, the development of such a resource by any utility in Southeast Alaska should be accompanied by outside financial participation where the risk can be diversified. For this reason, tidal resources are not specifically included in the analysis. OTHER Other generating technologies exist that were not included in the analysis. Such resources include the following. 1. Combined Cycles — This type of resource may provide economic benefits if electric loads are large enough and waste heat can be used in sufficient quantities. At this Angoon Power Supply Study Page IV-6 time, large heat recipients have not been identified, and this resource is not considered. 2. Batteries — This resource will provide economic benefits only under certain conditions. These conditions include, but are not limited to: e Large fluctuations in loads occurring with a great deal of frequency e Availability of low-cost energy (hydro, wind, etc.) that cannot be fully utilized in loads e Large spinning reserve requirements 3. Solar — Sunlight to electrical energy conversion efficiencies are felt to be too low for this type of resource to be economic in Angoon. 4. Refuse Fueled — The amount of fuel available is felt to be too limited for this to be economic. 5. Biomass — this type of resource was found to be uneconomic in earlier studies and was not felt to warrant further investigation. Angoon Power Supply Study Page IV-7 Vv. ANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS The analysis summarized in this report is based on a number of assumptions regarding future events. Some of the more important of these include the following. GENERAL 1. 2. The study period is from 1999 through 2050. General inflation is assumed to be 2.5 percent per year until 2025 and zero thereafter. All costs are expressed in 1998 dollars and are escalated at general inflation unless otherwise noted. New resources are assumed to be debt financed as follows: Resource Combustion Turbine Wind Coal Hydro Grant funding may be available for many of the resources analyzed. However in order to maintain a consistent analysis, grant funding is not considered. Heat recovery from generating resources can improve resource economics. However due to lack of data regarding possible heat loads, no heat recovery has been assumed. CAPACITY/ENERGY REQUIREMENTS Peak requirements, unless otherwise noted, are assumed to remain the same from 1997 through 1999. From 2000 and thereafter, loads are assumed to increase at | percent per year. Retail energy sales are assumed to increase by the same amount as peak requirements. Energy requirements for street lights are assumed to remain constant at 50,000 kilowatt-hours per year. Angoon Power Supply Study Page V-1 e Station use and distribution losses are assumed to be 10 percent of total requirements. e Resources are assumed to be maintained such that there is sufficient capacity to meet the expected annual peak if the largest unit is unavailable. INTERNAL COMBUSTION e Diesel fuel is assumed to be $1.00 per gallon and escalated at general inflation. e For cases with internal combustion resources used as the primary source of power, each unit is assumed to be taken out of service at the end of 25 years, and replaced with a unit(s) commensurate with loads. e Provisions for overhauls are assumed to be $5.00 per operating hour. Other miscellaneous variable operating costs, exclusive of fuel, are assumed to be 0.5 cents/kilowatt-hour. e Fuel efficiencies for internal combustion resources are assumed to be 13.2 kilowatt-hours of generation/gallon. This is equal to the actual amount achieved by T-HREA in Angoon during 1997. COAL e Construction and operating costs of a potential coal resource are assumed to be as described earlier in this report. e The coal resource, when considered, is assumed to be constructed over a two- year period with interest capitalized during the entire construction period. e The energy content and price of coal are assumed as specified earlier in this report. The cost of coal is assumed to increase at 2.0 percent per year until 2025 and zero percent thereafter. e The coal resource is assumed to be unavailable due to maintenance 10 percent of the time during the year. WIND e Equipment acquisition and construction periods for wind turbines are assumed to be short enough in duration such that interest is not capitalized. e Three turbines are assumed to be constructed and operated at costs described earlier in this report. e Annual energy production is assumed to be approximately 40,000 kilowatt- hours from each turbine. e Wind turbines are assumed to have a service life of 30 years and are assumed to be replaced with similar equipment. e Internal combustion resources are assumed to be taken out of service at the end of 30 years for cases that include wind turbines to account for reduced operations. Angoon Power Supply Study Page V-2 COMBUSTION TURBINES e Equipment acquisition and construction periods for combustion turbines are assumed to be short enough in duration such that interest is not capitalized. e Fuel efficiencies for a combustion turbine resource is based on data supplied by the manufacture for various loadings. The average loading in a year is assumed to be 55 percent of the annual peak. e The combustion turbine is assumed to be unavailable due to maintenance 10 percent of the time during the year. e The combustion turbine is assumed to be replaced by a similar unit at the end of 25 years. e Internal combustion resources used for supplemental generation are assumed to last throughout the study period for cases with the combustion turbine. ANALYSIS Production costs in Angoon were estimated over the study period for several different resource options. Production costs in this analysis are defined as: e Fuel e Provisions for overhauls e Miscellaneous variable maintenance as described in the assumptions e Annual debt service incurred on new resources Other production costs will be incurred each year, but these were thought to be common to all resource scenarios. The present values of the costs for each resource scenario were then calculated using discount rates of 0 and 6 percent. The 0 percent discount rate was used to provide the total costs in nominal dollars. The costs calculated using the two discount rates were then compared to the corresponding costs of the other scenarios to estimate the least-cost alternative. The results of these estimates are summarized in Table 11 at the end of this section, and details are provided in Appendix C. A description of each case run and various findings is provided as follows. BASE CASE The Base Case maintains continued reliance on diesel-fueled internal combustion resources. All resources, either existing or new, are assumed to be retired and taken out of service after 25 years of use and replaced with new internal combustion resources commensurate with loads. The assumed load growth in the Base Case results in larger units replacing existing units when they are retired; and near the end of the study period, three units are required. Angoon Power Supply Study Page V-3 CASE 1B — WIND TURBINES Three 66-kilowatt wind turbines are assumed to be constructed with commercial operation in 2005. In this case, diesel resources must still be maintained for capacity benefits since the wind turbines may or may not be operating at peak periods. Since the diesel resources will be operated less than in the Base Case, their life is assumed to be extended from 25 years to 30 years. Detailed hourly load data and dispatch models are required for more accurate estimates. The results in Table 11 show that the production costs over the study period are slightly higher than the Base Case. Again as previously noted, these results should be considered very preliminary and subject to confirmation of construction and operating costs, turbine life, and wind velocities. CASE 1C — COMBUSTION TURBINES Case lc assumes that a 508-kilowatt combustion turbine is constructed in 2005 as the primary source of power. After 25 years, the combustion turbine is retired and replaced with a similar unit. All supplemental capacity and energy requirements are met with internal combustion resources. In this case, the existing internal combustion resources are assumed to remain in service throughout the study period since they will be used on a limited basis. The production costs incurred in Case 1c shows that the combustion turbine is not economic as compared to the Base Case. CASE 1D— COAL A 500-kilowatt coal resource is assumed to be constructed with operations beginning in 2005. In this case, the coal resource is assumed to be operational throughout the study period as are the existing internal combustion resources. This case results in production costs significantly higher than the Base Case, and a small coal resource is clearly uneconomic. It should be pointed out that the estimated usable energy from the coal resource may be overestimated somewhat in the analysis. If the annual peak is less than the installed capacity of the resource, then load can be met as long as the unit is operational. However once peak requirements exceed unit capacity, then there will be periods when the unit cannot provide for the total load. If peak requirements exceed capacity by only a small amount, the supplemental generation required from diesel resources will be fairly minimal. However as the annual peak increases, supplemental generation could become significant. Without detailed hourly load data, the amount of usable energy from the coal resource and supplemental energy from diesel resources cannot be estimated with any accuracy. Although such detailed estimates would be required in a more refined analysis of a coal resource, the recognition of any biases in the preliminary estimates will allow for the results to interpreted correctly. Under the assumptions used in the Angoon Power Supply Study Page V-4 Base Case, the variable cost of diesel generation is greater than the variable cost of coal generation. Therefore, any reduction in coal resource production estimates due to unusable energy would result in greater production costs. Since this case is uneconomic under the assumed usable energy, any refinement would probably result in greater costs as compared to the Base Case. CASE 1E— HYDRO Case le is based on a hydroelectric project which can provide for all of the power supply requirements of Angoon such that diesel resources are used only for reserve purposes. The 1 percent load growth included in the Base Case results in firm capacity requirements of 688 kilowatts and 3.3 million kilowatt-hours of energy by 2050, the end of the study period. Annual operating costs are assumed to be $50,000 per year. As described earlier in the report, specific cost estimates were not available. Therefore, total development costs were calculated such that the resulting power supply costs equaled the Base Case. In order for the production costs to be equal to the Base Case (the least-cost alternative), the costs of the hydroelectric project would have to be equal to or less than approximately $4.1 million. Hydroelectric capacity was assumed to be firm such that energy production could be scheduled during peak periods. Furthermore, it was assumed that the hydroelectric energy generation could be scheduled so that no diesel generation was required. To the extent that either of these assumptions are not valid, the construction costs must be lower for the resource to be economic. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOADS The sensitivity of the results to loads was tested by using several alternative load growth assumptions: no load growth, 2 percent annual load growth, and inclusion of new, large loads. Of the non-hydro cases, the relative results of the various resources alternatives did not change. However as expected, the amount that can be paid for a hydroelectric resource to be economic has a positive correlation with load. In other words, the higher the load growth, the greater the hydroelectric costs can be and still remain economic as compared to the least-cost alternative. Cases 2a - 2e were run using no increases in load; and under this assumption, the maximum cost that a hydro resource could be is reduced to $3.3 million. However, the size of the facility is also reduced to approximately 400 kilowatts with annual energy requirements of 2.0 million kilowatt-hours. Cases 3a - 3e are based on a 2 percent annual growth in peak and energy requirements from 2000 on. This might be representative of load growth if the recent home site allocation spurs economic development in Angoon. Two separate scenarios were tested for the hydro resource. In the first, Case 3e, capacity and usable energy was limited to the 700 kilowatts and 3.3 million kilowatt-hours per Angoon Power Supply Study Page V-5 year as per the Base Case. In the second configuration, Case 3f, all capacity and energy requirements are assumed to be met with hydroelectric production. This would require slightly over 1.1 megawatts of dependable capacity and 5.4 million kilowatt-hours of usable energy per year. Cases 4a and 4b are based on the inclusion of an unspecified load with a 20.5- kilowatt peak and 100 megawatt-hours of annual energy requirements. The remaining loads of Angoon are assumed to increase at a | percent annual growth rate. Since the results of the all-diesel case were similar to that of the Base Case, the other non-hydro resource scenarios were not run. Cases 5a — 5d are based on inclusion of a large, generic load of 115 kilowatts and 500,000 kilowatt-hours per year. This might be representative of the loads associated with the potential Alaska Marine Ferry System facility in Hood Bay. Similar to the previous case, the remaining loads are assumed to increase at 1 percent per year. Total peak and energy requirements by the end of the study period are equal to 803 kilowatts and 3.8 million kilowatt-hours, respectively. FUEL INFLATION The Base Case assumes fuel will escalate at general inflation over the study period. Two separate cases were run using the Base Case load growth assumptions (1 percent per year): 1.) fuel escalation equal to general inflation plus 1 percent over the entire study period and 2.) fuel escalation equal to general inflation plus 1 percent over the second half of the study period. Since the coal scenario’s production costs are significantly higher than the Base Case, this case was not examined in any of the remaining sensitivity cases. The combustion turbine was not examined in this particular sensitivity case since it is dependent on diesel fuel, and the change in results would follow that of the Base Case. Wind was not considered either due to the speculative nature of the data. The first alternative fuel escalation scenario (Cases 6a — 6b) increases the amount that can be paid for the hydroelectric resource from $4.1 million to $5.1 million. The second alternative fuel escalation scenario (Cases 7a — 7b) increases the cost ceiling to only $4.2 million. This smaller increase is due to the assumption that the greater fuel escalation occurs in later years when the present value effects are not as great. FUEL EFFICIENCY The fuel efficiency used in the analysis is based on T-HREA’s average fuel efficiency for 1997 in Angoon of 13.2 gallons/kilowatt-hour of generation. Over the course of time, fuel efficiency will vary due to unit loadings, maintenance, and other factors. Two alternative efficiencies were used for a sensitivity analysis: 12.7 gallons/kilowatt-hour and 13.7 gallons/kilowatt-hour. The alternative fuel efficiency does not significantly impact the wind resource economics, and the combustion turbine is still uneconomic. The ceiling price that can be paid for the hydroelectric resource is increased by only $0.1 million for the Angoon Power Supply Study PageV-6 reduced fuel efficiency and decreased by $0.2 million for the increased fuel efficiency. OTHER Other factors will influence resource economics over time that have not been tested in the financial model. Such factors include emission and other environmental constraints, improvements in generating technologies, availability of funds, and others. The omission of these and others from the sensitivity analysis should not be construed as a lack of importance but rather as the inability to quantify them in a meaningful way. POWER COST EQUALIZATION The analysis conducted herein ignores the effects of the Power Cost Equalization Program(“PCE”). In other words, if a particular resource scenario was implemented, its benefits (or costs) as compared to the Base Case would be shared by both the State and the utility under the present PCE funding. If PCE was discontinued at some time in the future, then all the remaining benefits or costs would accrue to the utility. Current regulations regarding the PCE program does not distinguish among the types of generation used by utilities. Payments are based on a utility’s justifiable expenses, although certain minimum diesel generating efficiencies must be met. Several utilities have approached the State for construction grants to implement non-fossil fueled resources. In return for these grants, the utilities have proposed that they receive reduced PCE funding in the future. This allows the utility to implement resources that have economic savings in the long term but without construction grants would have costs significantly higher than diesel during the short term. Angoon Power Supply Study Page V-7 Apnig 4jddng samog uoosup 8-A 28D Table 11 Summary of Analysis Results (All dollars in millions) PV of Costs cto Variable Load 1998- 2026- Fuel Max. | Capacity | Energy $ Su7 Base |AII Diesel 1% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 24.51 $ A Ib Wind 2005 1% 2.5% 0.0% 13 2 2501) So) Ic CT 2005/2030 1% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 32.8 1.4 Id Coal 2005 1% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 36.9 9.0 2a All Diesel 0% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 i 5.0 2b Wind 2005 0% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 i 5.2 2¢ CT 2005/2030 0% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 ‘ 6.9 2d Coal 2005 0% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 ‘ 8.3 see eo [Hydro 0% | 2.5% | o.0% | 32 Load - 2% 3a All Diesel 2% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 31.8 6.6 3b Wind 2005 2% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 32.8 6.8 3c CT 2005/2030 2% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 40.1 8.3 3d Coal 2005 2% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 45.1 9.9 3e Hydro 2% 2.5% 0.0% 1812) $4.8 700 3.3 23:5) 6.6 Hydro 2% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 $5.2 1,137 5.4 20.2 6.6 Generic Load 1 - 2000 All Diesel All Diesel 1% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 28.5 6.6 CT 2005/2030 1% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 36.7 8.3 Coal 2005 1% 2.5% 0.0% 13.2 41.4 10.0 ae die ieee el sd oe ccele llenalt sleet masdlarescidl Oe icmcanlllt Apnig 4jddng samog uoosup 6-A 280d Variable Tested Fuel Escalation Fuel Escalation Fuel Efficiency Fuel Efficiency All Diesel Hydro All Diesel Hydro All Diesel CT 2005/2030 Hydro All Diesel CT 2005/2030 Hydro Load Growth Table 11 (continued) Summary of Analysis Results (All dollars in millions) Fuel Escalation 1998- 2026- 2025 2050 Fuel Eff PVo Hydro Resource (millions) Max. | Capacity | Energy Cost (kW) (GWh) 0% ‘osts VI. UTILITY STRUCTURE GENERAL Although power supply will probably play the biggest role in determining rates that must be paid by the consumer, utility structure may also have an impact. Accordingly, Kootznoowoo desires to investigate various utility structures in an effort to estimate the least-cost means of delivering power to its members. There are a number of alternatives that Kootznoowoo can implement, with the three most notable including: 1. Continued membership in T-HREA. 2. Transfer of the service area to Alaska Power & Telephone or another existing utility. 3. Establishment of a new, stand-alone utility. All of the options listed above provide for new generating resources in Angoon to be owned by: 1) the utility 2) owned by Kootznoowoo and power sold to the utility, or 3) owned by a third party and power sold to the utility. The third option of establishing a new utility leads to a number of other issues regarding what type of utility it is and what entity will operate the system. The type of utility can be another member-owned cooperative such as T-HREA, an investor-owned utility such as AP&T, or a municipal utility owned by the village of Angoon. Part or all of the operations can be performed by the utility itself, contracted out to another utility in the area, or contracted out to some other entity. In order to focus the analysis, a “snapshot” of what current rates would be under various utility structures was made. These assessments are necessarily preliminary in nature due to changing conditions and the requirement of fairly detailed data for more refined estimates. Furthermore, Kootznoowoo and its members must compare its own goals with this preliminary assessment to determine if further analysis is warranted. CONTINUED MEMBERSHIP IN T-HREA GENERAL T-HREA is a member-owned electric cooperative with service areas in and around Angoon, Chilkat Valley, Hoonah, Kake, Kasaan, and Klawcock. All of these are located in Southeast Alaska, and all but Klawock are electrically isolated from any other villages. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-1 T-HREA’s right to provide service to each of these load centers is granted through Certificates of Public Convenience and Necessity (“CPCN”) issued by the Alaska Public Utilities Commission (“APUC”). In Klawock, however, there is a conflict regarding who has the right to provide electric service as AP&T also has a CPCN for the area. In 1993, T-HREA requested the APUC to correct this service overlap and to grant T-HREA the exclusive right to provide electric service in the area. The APUC ruled in 1994 that AP&T should be granted the CPCN, and this was appealed by T- HREA to the Alaska Superior Court. In June 1998, the Alaska Superior Court ruled against T-HREA by upholding the previous ruling by the APUC. T-HREA is now considering appealing this latest decistion to the Alaska Supreme Court. Table 12 provides a summary of T-HREA’s energy requirements from 1992 - 1996. Table 12 Historical Energy Requirements (thousands of kilowatt-hours) 1992) 1998s 1994 1995 1996 Energy Sales: Angoon 1,722 1,828 1,830 1,870 1,939 Chilkat Valley - - 260 357 666 Hoonah 3,675 3,797 4,075 4,120 4,218 Kake 2,765 3,653 3,953 4,215 4,551 Kasaan 163 172 155 139 161 Klawock 2,745 2.795 3,747 4,528 4,214 Subtotal 11,070 12,224 14,021 15,229 15,750 Station Service, Losses, etc. N/A —_1207 1.202 _ 1584 _ 1.640 Energy Requirements N/A 13,432 15,223 16,813 17,391 Customers (Average Annual) 1,222 1,267 1,392 1,440 1,504 Historical T-HREA expenses from 1992 — 1996 are provided in Table 13, and the data in the table shows that costs have increased at a rate slightly more than sales over the past several years. Therefore, costs as expressed in cents/kilowatt-hour have increased by a small amount. Generation costs have historically been approximately one half of the total costs, and administrative and general costs accounted for approximately 25 percent. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-2 Table 13 T-HREA Expenses 1992 (1998 ss 194 1995 1996 Thousands of Dollars Production: Fuel $ : $ - $ 696 $ 716 $ 897 Purchased Power 293 324 407 506 534 Other 1,244 1,415 776 904 860 Subtotal $ 1,537 $ 1,738 $ 1,879 $ 2,187 $ 2,292 Distribution 78 45 77 66 48 Customer Accounts/Sales 122 120 121 131 178 Depreciation 367 402 600 562 587 Taxes 11 18 18 22 24 Interest 128 123 258 227 262 Administrative 818 964 988 1,180 1,145 Other 1 2 1 - : Total $ 3,062 $ 3,412 $ 3,941 $ 4,375 $ 4,537 Cents/kWh Production: Fuel/Purchased Power 2.65 2.65 7.87 8.42 9.09 Other 11.23 11.57 5.53 5.94 5.46 Subtotal 13.89 14.22 13.40 14.36 14.55 Distribution 0.71 0.37 0.55 0.43 0.30 Customer Accounts/Sales 1.10 0.98 0.86 0.86 1.13 Depreciation 3.31 3.29 4.28 3.69 3.73 Taxes 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.14 0.15 Interest 1.15 1.01 1.84 1.49 1.66 Administrative 7.39 7.89 7.05 7.75 7.27 Other 0.01 0.01 0.01 - - Total 27.66 27.91 28.11 28.73 28.81 T-HREA RATES T-HREA rates are based on the “postage stamp” concept in that rates do not vary by village. Consequently, those villages that are more expensive to serve will enjoy the benefits of the postage stamp rates whereas those villages that are less expensive subsidize the others. The present rate is 32.6 cents/kilowatt-hour. As described earlier, T-HREA’s right to serve Klawock is being contested; and without that customer base, rates would increase. T-HREA does not report its costs on a geographic basis other than fuel and purchased power; and _ therefore, depreciation and variable costs due to Klawock cannot be separated. Furthermore, the loss of Klawock as a member would undoubtedly lead to staff cuts by T-HREA, and such cuts cannot be estimated with any accuracy. Therefore, it is difficult to Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI - 3 accurately estimate the effect the loss of Klawock would have on the present T- HREA rates . KWAAN POWER & LIGHT Recently, Kwaan Power & Light (“Kwaan”) submitted an offer to T-HREA to acquire the utility’s physical assets and the right to serve its customers. Kwaan was formed by the Kake Tribal Corporation and AP&T as a partnership for the purpose of the proposed acquisition. Kwaan has indicated that rates to T-HREA members after the acquisition would be approximately 25 percent less than the current postage stamp rate of 32.6 cents/kilowatt-hour, or approximately 24.5 cents/kilowatt-hour. T-HREA is now investigating this offer. ALASKA POWER & TELEPHONE GENERAL Another option would be for another utility to acquire T-HREA’s assets in Angoon and the right to serve the customers. Since AP&T already provides power to other villages in the area, it would be a logical choice. AP&T is an investor-owned utility that provides electric and telephone services to 27 villages in Alaska. Thirteen of these receive both electric and telephone service, nine receive electric service only, and five receive telephone service only. RATES AP&T does not use the postage-stamp rate method but instead establishes rates for each geographic location. These rates reflect local generating and distribution costs but also include allocations of AP&T’s common costs. Such costs are allocated to each location based on allocation methodologies approved by the APUC and include administrative overhead, common distribution costs, and others. AP&T’s rates for various locations in southeast Alaksa are shown in Table 14 on the following page. These rates are based on 500 kilowatt-hours of usage and can be used as a general proxy for a rate that may be incurred in Angoon as an AP&T customer. However, the actual rate would probably be higher to reflect AP&T’s costs of acquiring the distribution and generating assets from T-HREA. The cost of acquiring T-HREA’s assets in Angoon would be subject to negotiation, but as a regulated utility, AP&T would likely not be able to recover any costs greater than the net book value of the assets (original cost less accumulated depreciation). As will be discussed in the stand-alone utility subsection, T-HREA does not report balance sheet information on a geographic basis for many of its assets. Therefore, the net book value of utility assets in Angoon was estimated to be $1.7 million, equivalent to a cost of approximately 6.2 cents/kWh for a 1,750 MWh utility. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-4 Table 14 AP&T Rates in Southeast Alaska Rate Location (cents/kWh) 18.3 18.3 18.4 Source: Alaska Public Utilities Commission 1997 Annual Report. STAND-ALONE UTILITY GENERAL Another option available regarding the supply of power is for Kootznoowoo or Angoon to form a stand-alone utility and sell directly to the consumers. This can be structured in a number of different ways; and sources of capital, long- and short-term strategies, ability to assume risk and other factors will all play an important part in determining whether the Village Corporation or the City itself best forms the utility. If the City owns the utility, it may be possible to use certain existing equipment and personnel for both utility and other City functions. This in turn could reduce the cost of the other City functions. A cost estimate was prepared to determine if a village- or corporation-owned utility might provide a lower cost structure than remaining with T-HREA or being served by AP&T. NON-FUEL/NON-DEPRECIATION COSTS In order to estimate the costs of a new utility, costs of other utilities were obtained. Data for utilities similar in size, electrically isolated, and with only diesel generation were used. Furthermore, only coastal communities were used to maintain as much commonality as possible. These costs are provided in Table 15 but do not include provisions for: e Fuel — Since fuel price (in dollars/gallon) and generating efficiencies can vary significantly from one utility to the next, these were normalized out. Separate fuel cost estimates were then made based on T-HREA’s cost of fuel and generating efficiency in Angoon. e Depreciation — Depreciation is relatively utility-specific in Alaska in that it will vary significantly from utility to utility. Therefore, separate depreciation estimates have been developed. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-5 Table 15 Costs of Selected Utilities Annual Cost Information (000) Power Plant Sales Parts/ Repairs/ Total ee a (MWh) | Personnel Supplies Maint Admin Total aan : Accurate estimates are difficult to make with the limited sample size. However based on the information provided, the costs for a utility with sales of approximately 1,750,000 kilowatt-hours would be in the 10 — 13 cents/kilowatt-hour range. OVERHAUL Costs Provisions for overhauls are not included in Table 15, since such costs are typically included in amortization and depreciation. Based on information provided by T-HREA and preliminary estimates of resource loadings, provisions for overhauls are estimated to be approximately 2 cents/kilowatt-hour. Other variable maintenance items, such as lube oil, anti-freeze, and other miscellaneous items, should be included in the costs provided in Table 15. FUEL Costs T-HREA’s generating efficiency in 1996 was equal to 11.5 kilowatt-hours of sales/gallon (13.2 kilowatt-hours of generation/gallon). Based on this efficiency and a $1.00 per gallon fuel price, fuel would add 8.7 cents/kilowatt-hour to the overall rate. DEPRECIATION/AMORTIZATION Depreciation/amortization expenses would be incurred by the new utility on all of its capital assets. These assets include not only any it acquires after purchasing the utility but also the purchase price itself. The purchase price will depend on a number of factors, but the net book value of the assets can serve as a reasonable estimate, and this is summarized in Table 16. Although separate accounts are maintained for generating assets, T-HREA does not maintain separate records for distribution equipment. Therefore the original cost and net book value of distribution assets in Angoon was estimated by allocating T- Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-6 HREA’s total net distribution assets to Angoon based on the number of customers. This estimate was prepared using 1996 data, the latest year available. Table 16 Net Book Value of T-HREA Assets in Angoon (Estimated for December 31, 1998) Original Net Cost Book Value Generating Assets: Generator 3 $ 219,000 $ 94,000 New Generator 280,000 280,000 Powerhouse 303,000 198,000 Tanks 233,000 57,000 Other Generation Related 193,000 11,000 Transformers 30,000 22,000 Subtotal $1,258,000 $662,000 Distribution Assets: Total Net Book Value of Distribution Assets (1996) $7,949,252 Number of Customers (year end - 1996) Angoon 208 Total 1,581 Allocation of Distribution Assets 1,045,822 Total $1,707,882 The purchase price is typically amortized over the remaining life of the assets. Specific asset lives can be used or a weighted average life can be estimated to approximate the appropriate time period. Table 17 provides a very preliminary estimate of the amortization period for the assets and the resulting amortization. If further studies are performed regarding the feasibility of acquiring T-HREA’s assets in Angoon, those studies should include a review of the remaining useful lives of the assets. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-7 Table 17 Amortization of Purchase Price (Net Book Value) Estimated Remaining Life Generator 3 94,000 13,429 ‘New Generator 280,000 18,667 Powerhouse 198,000 9,900 Tanks 57,000 11,400 Other Generation 11,000 11,000 Transformers 22,000 1,100 Distribution 1,046,000 41,840 $ 1,708,000 107,335 Energy Sales (MWh) Depreciation Expense (cents/k Wh) Other costs might be added to this amount including legal expenses incurred during the acquisition and any stranded investments of T-HREA. Furthermore, other assets may be acquired for administrative support and other functions, and the depreciation of these must also be included. TOTAL RATE Based on these preliminary estimates, the total rate for a village- or Corporation- owned utility would be as follows: General 11.5 cents/kWh Overhauls 2.0 Fuel 8.7 Depreciation _ 6.2 Total 28.4 cents/kWh This is probably a low estimate as additional depreciation (as previously noted), provisions for interest on any borrowing, and any profits if the utility is owned by a private entity might also be added to this amount. SUMMARY The estimates developed and set forth in this section are summarized in the following table. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-8 Table 18 Summary of Estimated Rates (cents/kilowatt-hour) Estimated Utility Stucture Rate Stand-Alone Utility * Has more potential of being higher than the amount shown than other structures due to reasons noted herein. These estimates, albeit preliminary, could be made with the limited data available since they were based on existing power supplies and rate structures. The inclusion of a new generating resource would change these estimates and could change the relative ranking. Revised estimates for new resources would require fairly detailed data and analysis. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VI-9 VII. OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS Based on the analysis conducted and summarized herein, certain observations and conclusions can be made regarding Angoon’s power supply. These include the following. RESOURCES e Previous studies have indicated that a tidal/diesel combination may provide economic benefits. These studies are, however, out-of-date, and revised construction/operating costs with reasonable accuracy are not available. e Small coal and combustion turbine resources do not show economic benefits under any of the assumptions considered. e Based on the assumptions summarized herein, the total costs of a hydroelectric resource can be no greater than the following for it to be economic. | Fuel Escalation _| Escalation a 2026- Capacity | Energy 2025 2050 $4.1 million # . $3.3 million 1 f . 5 ; $4.8 million \ : . : ; 3 $5.2 million Generic 1 f 0. 3 z $4.3 million Generic 2 f . f . $5.0 million \ : ; i $5.1 million 7 . 7 : 7 $4.2 million ‘ he A 5 i $4.2 million 7 E ; ls fs $3.9 million e Grants have been obtained recently by other Alaska native corporations to assist in the development of energy project. If grant money was obtained by Kootznoowoo, this could significantly change the resource economics summarized herein. e Even if a hydroelectric resource can be developed at a price stated above and proves to be economic in the long-term, rates can be significantly higher in the short term due to the capital intensity of the resource and levelized amortization. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VII-1 UTILITY STRUCTURE The preliminary analysis has shown that there are alternatives to continued membership in T-HREA that may lower the cost of power in Angoon. T-HREA’s right to provide service to the residents and businesses in Angoon is contained in its Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity. Transfer of this certificate to another entity will require APUC hearings and can be costly. Such costs have not been included in the analysis at this time and would add to the estimated rates for the AP&T and Stand-alone utility. Even though the costs of a new, stand-alone utility are fairly high, it may still provide economic benefits if the owner is Angoon and existing City staff and equipment can be used. This would effectively lower the rates for other City services. Construction of a hydroelectric project by Kootznoowoo does not necessarily preclude any of the utility structures investigated. The use of postage stamp rates by T-HREA may or may not benefit Angoon if a hydroelectric project was developed. If the costs are higher than the alternative in the short term, as frequently occurs with capital- intensive projects, then the postage stamp rate would spread these higher costs among all T-HREA ratepayers. However if the resource results in lower costs, this would also be enjoyed by all T-HREA ratepayers. Angoon Power Supply Study Page VII -2 APPENDIX A Combustion Turbines ST6L-721 MARINE AND INDUSTRIAL GAS TURBINE FACT SHEET The ST6L-721 is a free turbine engine derived from the highly successful small PT6 series of turboprop aero engines. Air enters the engine through a screened radial intake, and flows through the three axial and one centrifugal stages of the 7:1 pressure ratio compressor. Fuel is added in the reverse flow annular combustion chamber via 14 pressure jet nozzles. The combustion products expand through single stage compressor and power turbines, and exit via a single port exhaust duct. Basic engine dry weight: 104 kg. (230 Ibs) Output shaft speed (max.): 33,000 rpm > 1346mm (53") EXHAUST, STARTER PAD 7 v =| UTPUT SHAFT > 569mm (21") TACHOMETER ACCESSORY INTEGRAL AIR INLET GAS GENERATOR FUEL CASE NOZZLES IGNITION ACCESSORY PAD EXCITER PADS GEARBOX OIL TANK SCREEN REAR VIEW SIDE VIEW SIS Qa °- ST6L-721 PERFORMANCE S0E- fod er low-c Gwe Uninstalled, ISO, sea level conditions 33,000 rpm output speed as Jer Liquid fuel Thermal Power Efficiency Peak Rating 567 kW 23.8% 735 shp Base Rating 508 kw Parag . © 682 shp EXHAUST CONDITIONS FLOW kg/s TEMPERATURE °C 3.1 560 - 1540 350 400 450 500 OUTPUT POWER kW STANDARD EQUIPMENT ¢ Single port exhaust ¢ Inlet screen & firewalls ¢ Water wash ring * Ignition system ¢ Exhaust gas temperature thermocouples ¢ Starter generator drive * Compressor rotor tachometer drive OPTIONAL EQUIPMENT ¢ Power turbine speed probe ¢ Liquid fuel heater ¢ Fuel control ¢ Accessory drives * Integral oil system * Chip detector Z Pratt & Whitney Canada A United Technologies Company #nr0coe OS. Del eel SHAFT POWER OUTPUT POWER kW -10 0 10 20 30 AMBIENT TEMPERATURE °C FUEL CONSUMPTION EFFICIENCY % 24 16 200 250 300 350 400 450 OUTPUT POWER kW FUEL SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES ¢ Liquid fuel system, including pump and - Manifold & nozzles with provision for water injection, or - Manifold & nozzles without provision for water injection ¢ Gas fuel system, including: — Nozzles with provision for water injection, or - Manifold & nozzles without provision for water injection Pratt & Whitney Canada Inc 1000 Marie-Victorin, Longueuil, Québec, Canada J4G 1A1 Industrial & Marine Division, Marketing Department Telephone (514) 677-9411 Telex 05-267509 Fax (514) 647-3620 IMA-002 Rev.A APPENDIX B Coal 500 kilowatt Beg Funds Capitalized Interest End Funds 1998$ Avail Nominal Interest oe Avail 275,000 326,889 35,930} $ 2,649,042 275,000 ay ‘649, 042 326,889 97,500 30,589 2,255,242 275,000 2,255,242 326,889 26,515 1,954,868 275,000 1,954,868 326,889 97,500 21,044 1,551,524 275,000 1,551,524 335,061 16,726 1,233,189 275,000 1,233,189 335,061 97,500 11,009 811,637 275,000 811,637 335,061 6,553 483,129 275,000 483,129 335,061 97,500 695 51,264 2,200,000 2,647,798 390,000 | $ 149,061 Construction Costs 2,647,798 Interest During Construction 240,939 Financing Costs 60,000 Rounding 51,264 Total Debt Issue 3,000,000 Annual Debt Service 229,732 Fuel Cost $ 53.40 /ton Use 27,920 BTU/kWh Energy 8,500 Btu/Ib Limestone 10% of fuel costs Ash Formation 10% of coal weight Removal $ 20.00 /ton Parts/Supplies $ 83,000 /year Utilities $ 21,000 /year Incremental Ops $ - Analy16, model [Coat Higher Heating Value Bower Thermal Eftciency peak to average ratio dh ied Steam Cycle Parameters factor fr DA heavstation heat KW prey of fil food MMBTUine sore ery Brum on] 760] 015) [SATA OUTPUT | System Performance _ Parasitic Power Requirement of power plant Electrical Energy Delivered fom Powet Pant [Header Steam Flow Fuel Burn Rate “Kite Tota power output (plant service plus delivered Kw - Gross “GW = Net (a MMBTUIhe “MusTuye 4.8. Strandberg Consulting Engineers, Ine Technology Assessment Fetcuary 9mm 1998 DEVELOPMENT OF REGRESSION CURVES (linear) Tok data point McGrath data notes ENERGY MODEL pont Power _ att heating ons -MMBTUMY : 7 . Labor Hours Required for Operating Maintenance Labor Cupane o_2 “ 6 a a 7 ada steam fow ne 10084609509 0317 hoa 14705. Vaamo” 13219 19575” 3a age 15.05 ety wore saaare neat to oder LMMBTUy 372111471 120570 129.669 138 760 147867 156.966 106,068, 170815 175.165 164264. 199.369. oi 1640 00°11] tons of coal par yer “Toosyt > 602. 65577002. 7678 8x3. {100087 10.304 10890) 11,374" slope 127.802 ‘ael pow and heat output” MMBTUity 11580 19578 27567. 35556. «aus 75501. €3,490) 91480 yintecept = e0573 energy utzabon tctor ‘ate 1a” 0176 029° 0274” Ose oat” 0m ‘he ‘header siea tow iv T0090” 1975” taado Ste iS eeT” voit Fust Cost of Construction heat to bode “ MMBruiye *ie0.200 "172,300 ” 181,488 | 190.567 190,006,” 200,765 ” cost Tok Mecratn tons of coal pe year Tonsyt S604 10139" 10675” 11.210” 14.745 12.200 1nen6” t4aat 14957 a i ‘etd pow and eat ouput MMBTUe 31166 39,158 a7 44 95.199 69,122, 79101 63.085 67.090 95.079 103.058. Dati 4531503268101) frergyuileation factor = rte Ovi 0218 0247” 0278 0002” 0G 0380. 0300 ose 04s ex 1640 00 c =e : - en slope 088 tir 1500 ie360° io2e 0008 207 Te Row 276 Ae ‘ynlecept arize4 _ustuy 733.266 242.965 251.464 _ 760'504 269,663 77 961 | 782.410 _ 796.960 | 305,050 315,138. ‘he 190,203 Tonsyt 13722. 4257 1470218327 15963. 1) 17468 18.000 | 18530 MMBTUie | ra 9.678 105.067 "114650 7 Consumables replacement parts, uses i ‘a0 8 “ii 7 30007 t 1640 Tmetuiye | +: | ooo | Tony 09 : ; i | MMBTUe i 7032178310 | t on! ‘ato 0225 0244 ‘Note: Reference costs for electc and OM pars Note: Reference size fr elecine (net elect KW) and OM (design MMBTUMn) Note. Exponent is used to aajst ass than reference value. 1640, 15, respectively | Note Exponent 2is used to adjust above reference vale, 1640, 15, respective, | Note, Offet is used to adust elect of OM cost up or down by a constant amount Page! pint date, time: 628/98, 3.14 PM Source of Coal - Vancouver, B. C. Miles Nome 2,432 Bethel 2,166 Unalaska 1,710 Cordova 1,235 Angoon 840 0 intercept - 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 $/ton 80.42 75.52 69.82 63.26 53.39 500 500 miles/ miles/ $/MMBTU $/ton $/MMBTU 4.29 30.24 566.90 4.03 28.68 537.47 3.73 24.49 458.45 3.38 19.52 365.38 2.86 15.73 294.06 7.46 138.73 Miles per $/metric ton e ° 1,000 1,500 2,000 Miles Miles per $/MMBTU ° ° 1,000 1,500 2,000 Miles 2,500 2,500 3,000 3,000 APPENDIX C Financial Analysis Base Case — All Diesel Diesel Life 25 Construction Year Energy Max Amort Int Cost Unit Capacity Installed Retire (MWh) Plant Fetr Period Rate (1998$) O&M 3508 565 1990 2015 3508 550 1998 2023 New Diesel 1 650 2016 2041 0 6.0% $ 350,000 New Diesel 2 650 2024 2049 0 6.0% $ 350,000 New Diesel 3 650 2042 2067 0 6.0% $ 350,000 New Diesel 4 650 2045 2070 0 6.0% $ 350.000 New Diesel 5 550 2049 2074 0 6.0% $ 280,000 New Diesel 6 550 25 $ 280,000 New Diesel 7 550 25 $ 280,000 Hydro 700 3000 3000 3,300 30 6.5% $ 4,400,000 8,570,320 $ 50,000 cr 508 3000 2030 90% 20 6.0% $ 325,000 633,035 - er2 508 3000 3000 90% 20 6.0% $ 325,000 633,035 - Coal 500 3000 3000 90% 30 6.5% $ 2,200,000 4,285,160 - Wind 0 3000 3000 150 15 6.0% $ 258,000 502,532 - 550 $ 280,000 650 $ 350,000 800 $ 425,000 1,000 $ 500.000 Fuel Efficiencies Int Combustion 13.2 kWh (generation)/gallon cT Attached Coal Attached Load Growth 1997-1999 0.0% 2000-2025 1.0% 2026-2050 1.0% Street Lights 50,000 Station Use/Losses 10% of generation Average/Peak Load 55% Fuel Cost $1.00 /gallon Variable O&M 1. C. Overhaul $5.00 /operating hour Int. Combustion $ 0.005 ‘kWh cT $5.00 /operating hour General Inflation General 2.5% Last Year Infl 2025 Diesel Inflation 2.5% Coal Inflation 2.0% 2024 2u28 0260270282029) 20322033 0843S 20360372038 2039 2 A 2042 3 SS 2G 2047 2B 20492050 S31 536 S42 S47 582 SSR S64 $69 578 SRI 5X6 $92 SOR 604 610 616 623 629 635 64 648 654 661 667 674 681 688 650, 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650, 650 650, 650 650 650 650 650 650 650, : : - - : - : : : 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 - a 3 . . : a a - . - - . - - - - - - 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 6s0 o = - - : a ™ = . - - * - : : : - : - : - 650 650 650 650 650 630 - - - : : - : : - - - : - - - : : : - : - - - - : 450 550 1,300 1300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300, 1,300, 1,300 1,300, 1,300 1,300 1,300, 1,300, 1,300 1,300,300 1,300 1,300, 1,300 1,300 1,300,950 1,950 1,901,950 2,500 1,850 (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) ie Ms 108 103 98 92 86 x1 1s 69 64 38 $2 46 40 a) 27 2 1s 9 z 646 639 633 626 1,169 S12 igo gy 20002002002, 20032004 20082006 2007, 2008 2009 020202203 2040S 2016 0k 2020 DDB. Annual Peak 44 44 418 42 927 43 435 439 444 448 453 487 462 467 an 476 481 485 490 495 500 505 510 sis 520 526 Existing Resources 1990 Diese! 365 365 565 $65 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 365 565 565 565 565 565 - : : - : : : : 1998 Diesel $50 S80 $50 550 550 550 550 550 $50 $80 580 580, 580 580 550 550 $50 550 550 550 550 $80 550 $50 580 580 New Resoruces Hydro : : : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : Wind : : : : : : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : : : : : : : New Diesel New 1 - z - = - - - - - - : - : - : - - - 650 650650 650 650 650 650 650 New 4 - - - - - - - - = = = = = = = = = = = . . . . - . . New 6 - - - - - . 2 z ma = = - - - : - - - = Z & = = S : - Total Installed Wnts WANS ius Ws Ls: Wnts: Wns Wns WS: nts 1s WES 1s WANS us 1s wns 1S: 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Less Largest Unit (565) (S65) (865) (868) (S65) (S65) (S65) (S68) (S65) (S65) (S68) (565) (56S) (S65) (S65) (565) (565) (565) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) Reserves 136 136 132 128 123 19 1s ML 106 102 97 3 88 83 9 4 69 65 60, 35 50 45 40 35 30 m4 Requirements (MWh) Energy Sales Street Lights Losses/Station Use Total Requirements Generation Diesel Hydro Wind cri cT2 Coal Total Generation dg ye 20000 20022003 2004205 2006 2007, 2008 2009 200k 202 08S 0G 0 2020 2k 2s 2023 1,740 1.7400 1.7S8 77S 1.793 BLL 1.829.847 1.866 1,884 1.903, 1.922, .4L1,.9611.980 2.000 2.020 2.041 2,061. 2.082 2,102, 2.123 24S 2166 2.188 2,210 50 30 50 30 50 30 30 30 30 50 50 30 50 30 30 50 30 30 30 30 30 50 30 30 30 50 199 199 201 203 205 207 209 2ul 213 215 217 219 221 223 226 228 230 232 238 237 239 24 244 246 249 251 1.989 1.989 2.008 2.028 2.048 2.068 2.088 2.108 2.129 21492170 NDE 2.213 2.234 2.256 2.278 2.300 2.323 23452368 2391 4IS 24382462 2.4862. 1.989 1,989 2.008 2,028 2.04R 2.068 2,088 210K 2.129 2,149 2.170 2.192.213 2.234 2.256 2.278 2,302,323 2345 236R 2,391 AIS ABR 2.462 2.48 1989 1,989 2.008 2.028 2,048 2.068 2,088 2,108 2.129 214921702191 2.213 2,234 2,286 2.278 2,300 -2.323 24S 2,368 2301 24S 243K 2,462 2,48H OST 2024 02820262027 KY 2030 2U3L 3220332084 03S 2032037 03K 2039S 204040220430 = 20K 202TH. 2.232 2.254 2277 2.299 2.322 2.346 2.369 2393 2417 2441 2465 2490 2515 2.540 2.565 2.591 2.617 2.643 2.669 2,696 2.723 2.750 2.778 2.806 2834 2.862 2,891 30 30 30 30 30 30 50 50 80 30 30 30 30 30 30 so 50 50 30 50 30 30 30 30 30 50 24 256 259 261 266 269 27 24 277 279 282 285 288 293 296 299 302 308 308 a 34 317 320 324 327 2.535 2.662 2688-2714 2.741 2.767 2.795 2822, 2.880 2.878 2.906 2.934 2.963 2.992 3.022, 3,081 3.081 INT 3.142 3.173 3.208 3.236 3,267 2538 2560 2585 2.610 2.636 2.662 2ORR 2,714 2,74L 2.767 2,705 2.822280 2.KTR = 2.062.934 2.963 2.992 3,022, 3,081 ORT LIN 3,423,173 3.208 3.236 3,267 Dollars in Thousands ives yee 2uog 200.2002 2003 200d 2S 2G 2007 kt SGC a Hydro Debt Service : - : : - - - : - : : : : : : - : - - - - : : : : O&M : : - - - : : : = : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Subtotal . “ : - : : : - : - : : : : - - - - - : : : : : - Wind Debt Service : : : : - : - - : : : : : : - - : : : : : : - - - O&M - : - - - . - 7 2 e < eS . < : : : = - : 2 - « s e Subtotal - - - : - : - - - : - - : : - - - : - - : : : - - Coal Debt Service - - : : : : : : : : : : : : : - - - - - : : - - - Limestone : : : - - - - : : : : - : : - : : - - - Ash Removal : - - - - - : = - : : - - - - - - : - : - : - - : Utilities - - : - : - - : : : - - : : - : - - - - : : - - Combustion Turbine Debt Service 2 : : : = : : : : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : : - - Variable O&M 1 - : : - : : - - : : : - : : : : : : : : : : - : - Variablc O&M 2 : : : - : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : : : : : : - Intemal Combustion Debt Service : - - : : : - - : : : : : : - - Fuel 1st 134 160 165 1 7 183, 190 196 203 210 218 25 233 242 250 259 268 2m 287 297 307 318 329 341 Overhaul Costs 85 85 85 85 85 8s 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 8s 8s 85 85 85 85 85 85 8s Variable O&M 10 10 u u u 2 2 B B B 4 4 15 15 16 16 0 18 18 19 20 20 20 2 2 Subtotal 246 250 256 262 268 274 281 288 295 302 310 318 326 334 343 352 361 371 927 391 402 413 424 436 448, Total 246 280 256 202 268 214 281 288 295 302 310 318 326 334 343, 352 361 371 927 301 402 413 424 436, 448 Fuel Quantities Dicscl (000 gallons) Int. Combustion 1807 150.7 152.2 1536 1SS.1 1566 SRD SOT HHL NHAR HHA 1660 1676 169.3. 170.9 172.6173 1760777794 BLD RD— RAT. ROS RRA cr - . - . . . - - . . . - - . - - . - - . . - - . . Ash (tons) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 20230002 SGT ee S208 2037 KR 0220S G20 20208 : - : - : : - : : 682 - - $45 - 353 365 378 381 385 389 393 307 400 404 408 412 416 420 425 429 433 437 442 446 450 455 459 464 468 473 477 482 85 8S 85 87 90 92 o4 97 99 lol los 107 109 12 1s 118, 121 124 127 130 133 136 140 143 147 1st Iss 159 23 a4 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 461 1,139 488 494 500 506 S13 S19 526 333 339 546 $53 560 567 $75 582 590 $971,287 613 62101311 638 646 685 1,209 673 461 1.139 ARR. 494 500 506, S13 S519 526 533 $39 546 383 560 867 578 582 590 $971,287 613 621031 638 646 658 1,209 673 190.2 192.1 1939 1958 1978 199.7 -201.6 203.6 2086 = 2076 = 209.7217 213K 21S. 21K 220.1 2223 2245 22687 = 228.9 = 231.2 233-4 2357 = 238.0 240.4 242.7 24S. 2478 Peak Internal Combustion Case. Largest Unit ‘kW-mo 2nd unit Months: Averge Loading Percent Loading ‘Hours 2nd Unit Hours Ist Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Avg Sep xt Now Dee Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul ‘Aug Sep Oct Now 1081 au 385 387 a4 352 323 215 310 au ue 389 291 378 358 326 12 277 289 3B 34 385 2 a2 427 565 565 87100 8710 393 398 382 339, 230, NG 280, 291 316 37 an 2003 BL 401 403 389 336 322 286 207 32 M4 396 420 2 kts kk km kw a SG kT Ga a ARS 403 407 293 370 40 325 289 326 M7 a4 49 409 au 297 a4 MB 328 21 303 29 331 4228 4 AB als 401 a1 M6 a2 204 32 ast aR 448 47 419, 405 381 350 35 297 335 358 aR 437 433 437 N26 28 4B 389, 337 a2 303 3G M2 365 a1 46 402 467 a 436 22 297 364 M9 322 M9 372 429 435 71 49 aL N26 401 332 a2 325 353 376 433 439 476 43 4S 430 403 a7 356 26 228 386 438 481 47 450 438 375 359 39 332 42 485 432 434 429 4a 379) 363 322 335 363 388 47 473 490, 436 459 4B 417 383 325 338 367 391 431 478, 495 461 463 48 a2 386 370 328 M2 a 395 436 500 305 470 an 437 29 304 a7 235 Mo 378 465 492 510 475 a7 461 44 398 381 338 382 382 407 47 sis 480 482 438 385 a2 386 386 au a4 520 am 42 389 us 359) 416 479 526 489 42 475 47 410 393 349 393 420 sn 3 44 497 480 431 a4 397 382 44 si7 ms wc mw ws fe Ue ll Ul Uh lM lll Ot Cl Ct a eS sk 56 356 370 401 28 493 323 32 SoH 307 490, 4 42 359 34 432 498, 528 s7 509 32 493 465 427 a7 437 503 533 su 3i7 499 470 a3 4B 381 4B 41 538 319 322 sot 474 435, 407 370 48 313 su 364 325 327 479 440 421 a4 389 42 450 318 549 569 330 532 sis 4225 377 393 426 44 ou 335 318 338 538 520 489 49 430 381 397 430 439 329 sal su 3 525 44 433 4M 385, 401 4M su 586 son 337 300 a 467 a7 3907 4B 478 350 583 wo 568 34 42 482 401 a7 452 336 G10 aut 437 487 S61 595 616 sm 316 $37 3M 481 461 425 461 492 567 wl S882 486 43 4B 430 497 S73 on 3M 491 470 47 4M 470 502 578 oR 633 301 sm 496 478 a2 438 473 507 oy on 397 45 501 479 25 443 siz os os 317 ou 6st 6n 592 586 su 489 4M 4st 490 322 I 61s os 362 316 44 438, 436 528, «I 630 Si cete & an ou 3 367 321 499 Ww 461 533 ou ou wou 3 saeaserssee 3 B Sxou—u8 & oR 337 su 436 a4 sis 633 670 Peak Distribution PERE PETES ETE 1% OS 04% 85.0% 78.0% um GI om 148% 798% 20% 74% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2u2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20uL 202 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Capacity New Diesel I : : - . : E - Z 7 a . 7 : 3 3 2 3 3 650 < z g : ‘ . New Diesel 2 . . - . - . - + - . - . . . . . . . . . . . . - = New Diesel 3 : . : ‘ ° ‘ 2 : 7 7 7 : - ‘ z 2 Z ; 3 : : 3 5 = New Diesel 4 . . . - - - - - - . - - - - . . . . . . - . - - . New Diesel $ : : . s 7 : - 7 = : - - : : : 7 - ; - - : : : : . New Diesel 6 . - . - . : - - - . - - . - - . - . - . . . . . . New Diesel 7 : : - 5 : . - : is : 3 . é < - = = . : . _ : Cost New Diesel | - - . - - - - - : - - : : : : . : : S45,.881 - - - - - - New Diesel 2 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : - - : : : - - : New Diesel 3 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : New Diesel 4 : : : : : : : : . = - : : . 4 2 “ : - - . 3 . 3 7 New Diesel 6 : : : : : : : : : : : : : - : : : : - : : : : : : Debt Service New Diesel | - - - - - - . - - - - - - - - - - - ‘$46 - - . - . . New Diesel 2 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Total a - - - - - - - - : : - - - - : : - 546 - - - - - - 23-0 ue ST wt SG UT 239k 2S GT 0H 2080 - . : 5 : : : : - : : : : : : : : : (650) : : : : : : : : 650 : : - “ - - : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 7 é (650) ° : z : : 3 : : s z 3 : : : - : : : 650 z : - = : : : : : 650 - . - '. = 665,102 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : - : : : : : - : : : é _ z : 5 2 2 : = 3 3 3 : 7 é : = 6817 : . - - : - - - ; - - - : = - - - - - z - 682 - - - - - - . - - - - - . a s a S 7 z < z z = is S % = e 682 S o 7 5 a Wind 2005 WIND 3 @ 66 kilowatt - Energy Only Installed Capacity (kW) 198 Turbines $ 198,000 Tranformers/Connectors 12,000 Crane Rental 3,000 Foundations 15,000 Misc - Other 30,000 Total $ 258,000 Annual Debt Service $ 26,564 Capacity and Energy Costs in 1998 $ Annual Energy 50 MWH Installed Capacity Cost $ 1,303.03 /kW (no firm capacity) Energy Costs $ - /kWh Melded $ 0.6303 /kWh O&M (Non Labor) $ 25 ‘kW Diesel Life 30 Wind Life 30 Construction Construction Year Energy Max Amort Int Cost Cost Unit Capacity Installed Retire (MWh) Plant Fetr Period Rate (1998$) (Nominal) O&M 3508 565 1990 2020 3508 550 1998 2028 New Diesel | 650 2021 2051 15 6.0% $ 350,000 New Diesel 2 650 2028 2058 15 6.0% $ 350.000 New Diesel 3 550 2045 2075 1S 6.0% $ 280.000 New Diesel 4 800 30 15 6.0% $ 425.000 New Diesel 5 550 30 15 6.0% $ 280.000 New Diesel 6 550 30 15 6.0% $ 280.000 New Diesel 7 550 30 iS 6.0% $ 280.000 Hydro 700 3000 3000 3,300 30 6.5% $ 4.100.000 7,985,980 $ 50,000 ert 508 3000 2030 90° 20 6.0% $ 325.000 633,035 - cre 508 3000 3000 90% 20 6.0% $ 325,000 633,035 - Coal 500 3000 3000 90% 30 6.5% $ 2.200.000 4.285.160 song Wind 0 2005 3000 120 tS 6.0% $ 258.000 306,681 - 550 $ 280.000 650 $ 350,000 800 $ 425.000 1,000 $ 500,000 Fuel Efficiencies Int Combustion 13.2 kWh (generation)’gallon CL Attached Coal Attached Load Growth 1997-1999 0.0% a 2000-2025 1.0% 2026-2050 1.0% Street Lights 50.000 Station Use’Losses 10% of generation Average’Peak Load 55% Fuel Cost $1.00 ‘gallon Variable O&M 1. C. Overhaul $5.00 ‘operating hour Int. Combustion $ 0.005 ‘AWh Gr $5.00 ‘operating hour General Inflation General 2.5% Last Year Inf 2025 Diesel Inflation Ist Period 2.5% 2nd Period 0.0% Break Year 2025 Coal Inflation 2.0% ioyx 49992), 2002203222202 2S DO Annual Peak 44 44 4ix 422 427 at 4S 439) 444 44x 483 487 462 467 471 476 481 48s 490 498 500 308 310 sis $20 526 Existing Resources 1990 Diesel 565 365 368 368 568 $65 $63 363 368 563 368 568 365 568 568 365 565 568 565 363 565 365 365 : : : 199K Diesel 330 580) 380) 550) sso 550, 550, 530 580, 580 350) 380 $50 530 $80 580 580 $80 550 580 $50 380 $80 580 $50 $80 New Resonuces Hydro : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : = : : : Wind : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : : - New Diesel New 1 : : : : . : : : : : - - : : : : - : : : - : : 630 650 650 New 2 - : - 7 7 : - 7 : : : : : - : 5 : : : : - » 7 - - New 3 : - : : : : . - - : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : - : New 4 : : : : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : : : : - : : : - New § : . 7 - : : : : : : : - : - : : - : : : - : - - - “ Total Installed HUIS OLMIS OLMIS LAS TUES LIS IS ISS LES IS IS LS LIS IS LIS LIS EES HIS LEIS) LIS LIS LEIS) 4,200,200 1,200 Less Langest Unit (365) (365) (S68) (56S) (S65) (S65) (565) (565) (S65) (565) (565) (565)_— (56S) (565) (565) (SHS) (565) (86S) (SKS) (86S) (5885) (868) (650) (650) (650) Reserves 136 136 132 128 123 ne is uw 106 102 ”7 93 x8 #3 w "4 co) 63 60 55 30 40 38 30 4 New Loads : e : : : : : : : : - - - : : 536 542 347 S32 35%, S64 S69 S78 SRL 586 592 sox 04 60 616 623 629 638 ot ow 654 661 667 674 681 688 sso 550 <0 580 550 . . . : 7 - i A = z = 5 3 é 3 = . s oso 60 680 680 650 680 680 630 680 690 680 680 680 650 680 680 680 680 680 650 680 650 650 630 680 650 : - - : 650 650 630 680 630 650 650, 680 650 6350 650 650 650 650 650 650 630 650 650, 650 680 650 - - - . - : - : : : - : : : - : 350 $50 $0 30 $50 1.200 1,200 1,200 1.200 1.850 1,300 1.300 1.300 1.300 1300 1300 1.300 1.300 1.300 1,300 1.300 1.300 1.300 1.300 1.300 1,300 1.850 1850 1.850 1.850 1.850 1,850 (650) (650) (650) (680) (650) (65M) (630) (630) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) (650) W uW 8 3 648 92 %6 x1 1S oo o4 3k 52 46 40 M 2 a 15 9 2 546 $39 533 526 S19 $12 Requirements (MWh) Energy Sales Street Lights Lossey’Station Use otal Requir Generation Diesel Hydro Wind cr cr) Coal Total Generation nents New Loads Pon 99% wo 2000200 2002 2003 2004 0S 2006 2007 200K UL 22 203 OS SSS DU 1740 7400 TSR TTS TOR RTL 18207886 BRA 1.903.922 OKT 961.980 2.000 2.020 2.041 2.061 2.082, 2.102, 2.123 24S 2.166 218K 2.210 30. 30 30 30 30. 30 30 30 30 50 30 30 30 30 50 30 30 30 50 30. 30 30 40 50 40 50 199 199 1 203 208 207 209 211 213 215 27 219 221 223 226 230 232 237 239 24 244 246 249 251 1.989 1989 2.008 DROS 2.063 ORK NOS 21ND NTO AVE 2.212 22M 2.286 2.278 2323 LMS 2368 2.301 HIS 24K 24622486 DST 1.989 1.9K9 2.008 2.028 OAR 206K ORR LKR 2.000 2.020 QTE 20098 LE IB ASR KO -2.203 2.228 2.242.271 231K 23422366 2.301 : : : 120 120 120 Ro 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 no 120 120 120 120 1989 1.989 2.008 2.028 HK 206R ORK OK 2.129 DEY NTH NMED 22BE 28H 227K 2.300 2.323 DMS 2.368, 301 24IS 24K 2462 4KH DSTI 2d 028-027 UR ws. 3320882082 2039 04020420428 OS G27 02080 2232 22S4—-22IT— 2.200.322 24H 2.892.399 HIT DAHL 46S 24H -DSIS SHO -2.S6S— 2.51 2643-2669 2.696 2.723.780 277K 2.80 BM 2862 2.891 50 30 50 40 30, 50 30 50 30 30 50 50 30 50 30 30 30 30 30 so 50 30 50 30 30 30 254 256 250 261 264 266 269 27 24 27 279 282 285 288 291 293 209 302 305 308 3 34 37 320 324 327 2533-2860 SKS HID 2.63H 2667 AER TLE TAL 2.767 2.798227 NSY TK 2.406 2.U3F 2902-2022 ROS ORL ANE 3.423173 3.208 3.236 3.267 DAIS AMD 24HS—24OD—SIH— SH -SHK S94 2H HHT -DH|TS-—-.702_— 2.7K -D.TER TRH KIN -DRAZ-—-2.KT2_- 2.902 2.931 2.1 2.991 3.022 3.083 3.0K BIB 31. 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 10. 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 2.538 2.560 DANS 2610 2.636 2.662 2.68% 2.714 2.741 2.767 2.795 2.822 2.250 2878 2.906 1934 2.963 992 3.022 3.081 3.081 3 3.2 3.173 3.204 3.236 3.267 Dollars in Thousands Hydro Debt Service : - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . - Subtotal A : : 3 : : = = : : - - - : : : : = : : : 2 Wind Debt Service - : : 2 32 2 2 32 2 2 R 32 2 2 2 R 2 : : - O&M : : - 6 6 . 6 7 7 7 7 g 8 8 8 8 9 9 ‘Subtotal . - . . n * x * ” * coy »” 30 ” » 3” 40 40 9 9 Coal Debt Service 5 : : : : : : - : = - - - - . : : - - . : : : 2 Ash Removal - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Parts Supplies : : < 3 : : : 3 = : E : - = 5 : a : ; : rc z ‘Utilities - - . - - - . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Incremental Ops _- : eee : — — —< : : — = : —— : 5 é 3 ‘Subtotal - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Combustion Turbine Debt Service 1 : : - : : : : : : : : = . : : . . : . A a : : z : Debt Service 2 : - : - - - - - : - . - - - - . . - : - - . a - Variable O&M 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Variable O&M 2 : : : : : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : : = = : : - Subtotal - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Intemnal Combustion Debt Service - : - - - : - - - - - - - - : - : : : - : : : : Fuel ist is4 160 16s mt 7 179 ins 12 199 206 23 221 229 237 24s 24 263 mn 282 324 Overhaul Costs as 85 8s 8s a5 aS 8s 85 a5 85 85 8s 8s Variable O&M 0 we 2 a ts et 9 x Subtotal 26 256 262 268 lM 276 283 20 321 329 38 M7 356 376 386 408 a Total No 20 26 m2 26% 74 281 au oad) 328 338 MB ad 30 348 3% BKO ws 40s ats 426 436 ANG at 440 Fuct Quantities Dicscl (000 gallons) . . ‘ . . . Int Combustion 1507 1807 1522 1836 1s 156.6 1882 1506 1822 183.7 188.3 136.9 1585 160.2 1618 163.8 1682 166.9 168.6 1703 mi 173.9 178.6 74 1793 ‘Coal (tons) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : - : - Fuel Cost 100 «oO ESS) SEAN ASB SRS DSA SB TRG 3 om. wes 20a wx «033, (2 (i 2ou 20432 SSS] (KUN . . - - - - - - - . . Te vid ” wm Ww ” nm w nw ” w w w w wn * 9 ° w to 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 e oO 0 wo 10 0 ty tu 0 wo 10 aX ae ae SB ae SB ae a8 BK aN ae ee ‘aK we aS 10 - - - - - ™ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ay - - - - - 336 348 x04 x67 a1 38 379 aK 3x7 391 398 200 403 407 au 4IS 420 44 aR 433 437 44 4600480485 460464 88 8s 9 4 7 9 tol lo4 107 m2 is 18. nL 14 127 130 133 136 140 143 47 131 158 159 _ 2 8 4 28 3 2s 26 % oa Bay 27 28 2K 29 2» 2» 2 0 30 30 31 443 456 478 481 $88 404 sor Sid 320 327 sat S49 $86 563 371 S7® 386 594 602667 61927836 64S 684 482 468 479 AKS at S67 504 a0 su7 $23 530 $37 Or OM 637 OM 682 O89 67 678 O83 ow 788 m7 Ws m4 733 663 INT} 1K30 RAR 1KH7-1RKT— 19061926 LHS HS HRS-—-2006 2026 —-2HT—-206K8_— 20RD 21D 2132 SA_—-217H_— HK. 222L-— 2243 22HH_-22KD_— WF -2336 2360 23K4 TRS 190 1981.98 108 19S 98 MSHS MS MS BS MSDS HS MS MS MSHS MSS HS WS NHS AWS NMS OS. cak Internal Combustion Case Largest Unit Wome 2nd nie Months Avetge Loading Percent Loading Hous 2nd Unit Mowry Ist Unit pioezer keke 7 1s 38s 387 4 332 323 wn a us 3R0 I a8 333 326 aM 277 2» any aM 485, 407 7 309 a 39 8 ao) ap a 392 ANG nt 363 or wa 389, a 386 27 a2 4 a 120 xa as 1S no wo au 7 a4 M3 ue » 403 329 31 Wot 128 ay a9 os 381 235 27 309 335 358 4d 4a7 lw 4s 487 563 368 42 430 42 48 yw Mw MS M9 M6 425 450. 4607 au 436 297 ea) Mo 309 m2 Mo an 429 438 m 476 we 4s 1 103 m1 286 36 28 386 380 As 14 it uy Ase 43S a“ a8 Poy 1 nz wo a a2 ARS 19, $65 65 486 419 ue 7 a8 325 a8 367 201 Asi 478 ws 464 43 a8 a2 386 370 328 M2 a1 295 16 483 sm 50s 470 472 437 4 24 a7 35 M9 378 403 465 An 475 47 41 aM 398 a8) aan 332 407 497 sis 480 482 Me 438 wr aNS M2 336 386 aM a4 we a we MB Ms te OM Ok a mm 56 478 47 410 393 MO 363 393 420 4a siz 2a aT) 14 7 ra 431 au 7 382 397 a aie 37 36 say 7 582 558 sot wo 375 sal 3x6 3 50% at ale og en an os on aR 6st a) “er on aa 68, 650) 650 so 650 630 630 “ 60. oso 430 «su «sn «50 630 650) 650 650 on 650) co 630 650) 630, = - . . . . : . . . . . - : - : - - - - - . 0 7, 0 . = : 2 Z . ¢ é - ; e z E é : 5 7 : ‘ Z Z : 0 7 x g z = z = : « : 5 5 ; : : Ps E : : S : . : 0 o 0 ° - - : - . - 7 - . . 7 - . . * : : = z ' 9 8 7 R700 RT RITTER TERT RIG RTO) RTH RTH TH RTH THT RTH IR TH TG RTT RTH RTT RTO 499 3 319 325 56 337 a sho 585 3 397 won, 613 ou on 640 502 317 38 Sea s 376 5k2 S88 sn oon 62 or ou au aR ANS 19 sot $09 st 535 sul 532 337 308 su 380 502 397 con wo 136 0 174 479, 499 509) 319 Su 3M S40 Sis $36 367 378 SRS uk AR AML 435 440, ASX 467 176 481 v1 50 su 316 21 326 37 wor 403 4B 417 a ABS 47 186 ir 170 475 479 480 44 499 30 su Ae 3) cd 370 a ako 393 397 3 409 4B 417 a1 138 4M 43x a3 47 456 370 a4 381 385 389) 408 0 1B a1 425 430 Aa ARR 4B asi 456 461 463 v4 aol 408 AB Ag, aD 49 43 AIR 437 461 166 470 473 480) 490) 44 199 304 315 “I 46 480, 468 vr 478 487 492 497 502 507 312 $22 3ay 538 sy 38 31h S18 539 SIS 3 567 578 378 sat su wo? ws ou en GR 3a a M9 a 7 SR3 wo wr 6B “9 633 ou 630 637 on : : : : : - - : - - : : : : : . : : : - : : 1 1 It 1 Combustion Turbines Diesel Life 60 Unit Capacity 3508 565 3508 550 New Diesel 1 650 New Diesel 2 650 New Diesel 3 550 New Diesel 4 650 New Diesel 5 550 New Diesel 6 New Diesel 7 Hydro cTl 508 CT2 508 Coal 500 Wind 0 550 650 800 1,000 Fuel Efficiencies Int Combustion cr Attached Coal Attached Load Growth 1997-1999 0.0% 2000-2025 1.0% 2026-2050 1.0% Street Lights 50,000 Station Use/Losses Average/Peak Load Fuel Cost $1.00 Variable O&M Int. Combustion $ 0.005 cr $5.00 General Inflation General 2.5% Last Year Infl 2025 Diesel Inflation 2.5% Coal Inflation 2.0% Year Energy Installed Retire (MWh) 1990 2050 1998 2058 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 3000 3000 2005 2030 2031 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 150 $ 280,000 $ 350,000 $ 425,000 $ 500,000 13.2 kWh (generation)/gallon 10% of generation 55% /gallon ‘kWh ‘operating hour Max Plant Fetr 90% 90% Amort Period ecoooo 20 20 30 15 Int Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.0% Construction Cost (1998$) $ 350,000 $ 350,000 $ 280,000 $ 350,000 $ 280,000 #N/A #N/A $ 2,000,000 $ 325,000 $ 325,000 $ 2,200,000 $ 258,000 3,895,600 386,323 386,323 4,285,160 502,532 $ 25,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 2012 2013 2014 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual Peak 44 a4 4IR 422 a7 431 435 439 444 448 453 487 462 467 a1 476 481 485 490 495 500 505 510 5i5 $20 $26 Existing Resources 1990 Diesel 365 565 365 565 565 565 365 565 365 $65 565 565 365 368 565 565 565 565 565 565 $65 565 565 565 565 565 199K Diesel 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 350 550 550 550 $50 550 550 550 580 550 550 550 550 550 $50 550 550 $50 New Resoruces Hydro : : é a : : - 7 Wind : : : : 2 : : 3 crt - : : : : : : 508 sux 508 508 sox 508 508 508 508 508 508 508 508 508 508 508 cT2 : : : : - : : : New Diesel New I - - - - - - - - - - : New 2 . . : . : - : - - New 3 : : : : : : : : : : : New 4 : - : : : : : : : : : New 5 : : - : : - - : New 6 : - - - : : : : - - : New 7 : a = : - - i : Total Installed WIS AUIS AIS AIS. ANS NES LES 1,623 1,623 1,623 1,623 1,623,623 1,623,623 1,623,623 1,623,623, 1,623 1,623,623 1,623 1,623, 1,623 1,623, Less Langest Unit (565) (565) (565) (S65) (36S) (56S) (56S) (S65) (365) (565) (565) (56S) (S65) (56S) (56S) (S65) (565) (S65) (S65) (S65) (S65) (S65) (S65) (S65) (S65) (565) Reserves, 136 136 132 128 123 ny 1s 619 614 610 605 601 596 sol 387 582 377 373 568 $63 558 $53 548 543 538 532 one ut rae toe Loe ror or ur eer zr ser wre arp tsp oor oor ur ur ear ox ror 00s 905 ts ois ws us (sas) (s95)_—(s9s)_— (595) (595) (S95) (S98) (S95) S95) (S95) S95) (S95) (S9S)_— (9S) (S95) (S95) Kg9S)_— S95) (S95) (59S) KS9S)_— (598) 598) Kg95)—s95) sas) E95) Eroy TE ETHT ERTL ERT CTT THTE THEIR ETT ETHER ERM ETE THT THT ERIN ETH ETH ERM ETHT RMT UVT 805 #05 805 805 805 #0 0s 80S sos 80s 80s 80s sos 805 805 405 808 80s 80s 80s é = = 2 E w : s a a - : a = : c : ; = 2 - : : e sos 805 80s 80s 205 OS, xs oss oss Oss Oss oss oss oss. oss oss oss oss oss, oss oss oss Oss oss oss. oss oss oss, oss Oss oss oss oss Oss $98 $98 $98 $98 $95 89s s9s $98 sos 59s sos $98 $98 sos sos sos s9s sos sos sys sos s9s sos sos s9s s9s ss a9 189 9 us 9 $59) arg iy sev oz wy v9 ov 09 80s wos oes las sts os tos ass uss urs ues os Iss wy ATC OT OZ TRON GSC A ES ( (GC (GZ HM TOT (GT GT GC (GT eT OT (<a ( eT (HTC THC Requirements (MWh) Energy Sales Street Lights Losses/Station Use Total Requirements Generation Diesel Hydro Wind cr cT2 Coal Total Generation 199s 1999020012002, 2003 004 2005 2006 2007208 20092010 2-202 2018 20162017, 2018202020 0 202202 1.740 1.740.788 77S 1.793 RTD 829 BHT 866 BB4 1,903 1.922 941,961 1.980200 2,020 2.041 2,061 2,082, 2,102 2,123 24S 2.166 2188 -2,210 30 50 50 50 30 50 50 50 50 30 30 50 50 50 30 50 30 50 50 30 50 50 30 50 50 30 199 199 201 203 203 207 209 2u 213 215 217 219 221 223 226 228 230 232 235 237 239 241 244 246 249 251 1.989 1.989 2.008 2.028 2.088 2.068 2.088 2.108 2.129 2.149 2.170 YE 2.213 2.234 2.286 2.278 2,300 2.323, MS 2,368 2391 24S 2.438 2.462 2.486 2.5L 1,989 1,989 2.008 2,028 2.048 2,068 2,088 2u 213 2s 217 219 221 223 226 228 230 232 235 237 239 241 244 246 249 251 : : - - - - 1897) 1.916 1.934 1,983,972, 9912011 2.030 2,050 2,070, 2.091 INE 2.132 282273 N98 2.216 2,238 2,260 1989 1989 2,008 2,028 2,04R 2.068 2,088 210K 2,129 2,492,170 2,192,213 2.234 2,286 2,278 2,300, 2,323 2,348 2,368 2,301 AIS 2,438 2.462 2.486 SII 204 02S 2026027 028 ek U 203320342035 2036 2037-2038 2039 2002041 20423 OHS 20GB 2080 2.232 2.254 2277 2,299 2,322 2346 2,369 2.393 2417 244t 2.465 2.490 2.515 2.540 2.565 2,591 2.617 2,643 2,669 2,696 2.23 2,750 2.778 2,806 2,834 2,862 2,891 50 30 30 50 50 30 50 30 50 30 30 30 50 30 50 30 30 50 50 30 50 0 50 50 50 50 50 254 256 259 261 264 266 269 271 24 277 279 282 285 288 291 293 296 299 302 305 308 Su 34 317 320 324 327 2560 2585 2.610 2,636 2.662 2,688 2.74.41 2.767—2.798 2.822 2.880 2.KTB 2.906 2.934 2.963 2.992 3.022, 3,081 3.081 UE 3423.73 3.204 3,236 3,267 254 256 259 261 264 266, 269 2 24 27 219 282 285 288 291 293 296, 299 302 305 308 au 314 317 320 324 327 2308 2327-2349 2372 2.302419 : : - - - - - : - - : : - : : . . is = B : : - : - - - 2443 2467 2491 2.518 2,540 2,565 2,590 2.618 2641 2.667 2.693 2.719 2.746 2.773 2,800 2828 2,856 2884 2.912 2.941 2535 2.560 2,8KS 2,610 2,636 2,662 26RR- TI 2.7L 2,767 2,798 2.R22_— 2.850 KTR 2.906 2.934 2,963 2.992 3,022, 3,051 ORT INE 3,423,173 3.208 3,236 3,267 Dollars in Thousands Hydro. Debt Service O&M Subtotal Wind Debt Service O&M Subtotal Coat Debt Service Fuel Limestone Ash Removal Parts/Supplies Utilities: Incremental Ops Subtotal ‘Combustion Turbine Debt Service 1 Debt Service 2 Fuel Variable O&M | Variable O&M 2 ‘Subtotal Intemal Combustion Debt Service Fuel Overhaul Costs Variable O&M Subtotal Total Fuel Quantities Dicsel (000 gallons) Int. Combustion cT Coal (tons) ‘Ash (tons) 1208 i 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2006 2007 2008 2008 2010 20u 202 2013 2014 2018 2016 2017 2018 2018 2020 2021 2022 a : - - : : : 34 4 4 4 ay M 34 4 M4 a4 ™ M4 M a] uM 34 M 34 - - - - - : - 307 37 328 340, 346 358 am 384 391 404 418 433 4at 457 473 481 498, 516 - - - - - - - 47 a 49 50 82 53 4 56, 37 39 60 61 63 65 66 68 0 " - - - - : - - 387 399 424 431 445 459 473 4g 496 siz S28 538 55S sn 583, 602 621 1st 154 160 165 m 7 1R3 19 20 20 2 2 23 23 4 25 26 n 28 2» 30 3 32 33 ay 83 85 85 85 8S 85 85 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 > 9 9 9 s 9 10 10 u u u 2 2 1 ' 1 ' 1 ' 2 2 Z zi 2 2 a 2 Z 2 2 4 246 250 256 262 268 24 281 29 2 30 u 2 B 3B M 35 % ” 3B »” 40 4 a “4 4s 246 250 256 262 268 274 2K1 416 428 44 455 463 477 492 507 S17 $33 $49 566, 377 598 614 625 645, 666 1507 150.7 152.2 183.6 158.1 196.6 158.2 16.0 16.1 16.3 164 166 168 16.9 mW 173 4 176, 178 179 18.1 183 18.5 18.7 188 - - - . - - - 258 260 263 265 264 266 269 2 270 272 278 276 279 280 282 285 278 281 RI 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2038 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2003 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2080 . . : : : : : : M M M M M M M M M M 4 at M M4 M M M M4 4 Mu S34 S44 $63 569 565 $1 $77 $82 S81 587 593 $92 598 604 603 609 61s IS 621 627 626 632 639 638 644 44 650 657 B 1s n 7 7 n 7 7 - : : : : : . . - . . - = . . a < - . 7 : : : : : : : : n n 7 n n n n 7 n 1 n n n 1 n n n 7 n n al 653 640 645 642 648 653 659 692 698, 703 703 708 m4 m4 no 26 ns BI 37 37 143 19 m9 755 754 161 167 35 36 38 38 39 39 39 40 40 40 4 at a 2 2 a 8 “4 “4 45 4s 45 46 46 47 47 oy as 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 u iW in n 2 13 4 1s 16 7 18 19 20 2 23 a4 2s 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 46 47 49 49 $0 st St 82 33 33 MM ss 56 56 37 58 9 60 62 63 65 66 68 69 n B 1s ” 687 700 689 695 692 698 708 m 144 781 787 787 164 ™ ™m 778 785 785 193 800 x01 809 ai7 818, 826 927 836 844 19.0 192 4 196 19.8 200 20.2 204 206 208 210 22 24 216 28 220 222 224 22.7 229 23. 233 23.6 238 40 243 245 248 288 286 289 292 290 293 296 299 299 301 304 304 307 310 310 33 316 316 319 322 ns 328 328 BI BI a4 37 Peak Intcmal Combustion Case Largest Unit KW-mo 2nd unit Months Averge Loading Percent Loading Hours 2nd Unit Hours Ist Unit Jan Feb Mar ‘Ape May Jun Jul ‘Aug Sep Oct Nov Dee Jan Feb Mar ‘Ape May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov g m= 1} asa aaa eS Gis 44 44 ug 389 291 378 335 326 an 27 289 33 aM 385 407 a 393 29s 382 359 30 MG 201 36 337 an 427 197 99 386, 363 333 a 283 204 a MI 392 4G 4M 870 4ol 403 389 336 322 286 207 322 M4 396 420 aS 403 393 370 MO 325 289 300 326 37 400 a 49 409 au 397 a4 MB 328 201 303 329 351 428 a4 any ais 401 377 MG 332 204 332 354 43 48 407 49 403 381 330 333 27 335 338, 42 437 433 an 4B 385 353 338 32 339 362 416 a1 437 426 128 4 389 357 M2 303 36 32 365 an 446 402 430 42 418 398 MS 306 39 346 425 450 467 a 436 422 37 49 322 49 m 429 488 a 439 4a 426 401 368, 332 32 323 353 376 43 439 476 43 45 430 405 1 336 316 328 336 380 438 481 47 450 435 375 359 39 322 384 4n2 485 432 434 49) 4B 379 363 32 335, 363 388, 447 473 490 456 439 43 47 aR} 36 325 338 367 291 431 478, 495 461 448 at 386 370 328 a2 a1 395 456 300 432 425 390 a4 32 ‘MS a4 2 505 470 an 437 29 3 7 us Mo 378 403 465 492 478 477 461 4M 398 381 338 332 382 497 480 482 438 385 a2 336 386 au 474 484 487 a 4a2 Ms 359 389 46 479, 42 475 a7 a0 393 Mo 363 393 420 sz ms 6 aaa Sa a Sa aT 536 49 S02 483, 456 8 401 336 370 401 4128 493 323 saz 490, 223 408 359 a4 405 42 498 528 a7 $52 558 319 322 So a4 ABS 47 370 418 446 sis SH S64 32s 37 479) 440, a 4 42 450 S18 49 569 530 $32 sis 484 444 228 377 393 126 4s su 338 378 538 538 520 489 9 40 381 397 420 439 329 sal S65 su say 328 44 433 4M 385 401 aM 3M 386 565 520 499 438 ARR 389 405 439 339 m 592 565 n n 16 876 351 334 535 402 4B 393 43 473 Sas 37 598 568 18 18 © uy 876 337 os 467 47 397 43 448 478 330 won 565 M n ° 2 876 362 565 56 3M an 432 401 47 432 482 336 10 568 co) 3 1 0 31 876 368 3 332 319 476 456 408 ai 437 487 361 59 616 365 38 4 u 0 n 876 3m 376 337 3 481 461 409, 425 461 42 367 wor 623 on 365 108 3 2 0 ua 816 385 588 68 3M wt 470 47 4M 470 $02 378 on os 565 7 5 2 0 182 876 3 34 sm 540 496 475 au 438 473 307 9 ou 365 167 3 B 0 21 876 37 oo 380 Sas 301 479, 425 43 480 siz 390, 02s Gag 565 197 3 9 © 261 876 3 06 386 351 306 484 430 47 485 3i7 ot ost 65 27 3 45 ° 301 876 on 392 536 su 489 4M 431 490 $22 @2 8 «I 565 237 s st 0 M2 876 61s os, 37 362 516 44 438 456 44 528 ou ou 565 328 6 33 ° 435 816 68 G30 wo 373 $8 el a8 28.2 ou BeESsESEISS $65 402 6 o 0 3M 816 oa 585 337 su 456 a4 sis aa 670 PERG TETEETE Coal 2005 Diesel Life Unit 3508 3508 New Diesel 1 New Diesel 2 New Diesel 3 New Diesel 4 New Diesel 5 New Diesel 6 New Diesel 7 Hydro. cTl cT2 Coal Wind Fuel Efficiencies Int Combustion cT Coal Load Growth 1997-1999 2000-2025 2026-2050 Street Lights Station Use/Losses Average/Peak Load Fuel Cost Variable O&M 1. C. Overhaul Int. Combustion cr General Inflation General Last Year Infl Diesel Inflation Coal Inflation 60 Year Capacity Installed Retire 565 1990 2050 550 1998 2058 650 60 650 60 550 60 650 60 550 60 550 60 550 60 700 3000 3000 508 3000 2030 508 3000 3000 500 2005 3000 0 3000 3000 550 $ 280,000 650 $ 350,000 800 $ 425,000 1,000 $ 500,000 13.2 kWh (generation)/gallon Attached Attached 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 50,000 10% of generation 55% $1.00 ‘gallon $5.00 /operating hour $ 0.005 ‘kWh $5.00 /operating hour 2.5% 2025 2.5% 2.0% Energy Max (MWh) _ Plant Fetr 3,300 90% 90% 90% 150 Amort Period cocoo 30 20 20 30 15 Int Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.0% Construction PARHAAAARABAH Cost (1998$) 350,000 350,000 280,000 350,000 280,000 280,000 280,000 4,400,000 325,000 325,000 2,200,000 258,000 Construction Cost (Nominal) 8,570,320 633,035 633,035 2,615,109 502,532 O&M $ 50,000 500 kilowatt Beg Funds Capitalized Interest End Funds 1998S Avail Interest Earnings Avail 2,940,000 | $ 326,889 $ 2,649,042 275,000 2,649,042 326,889 97,500 30,589 2,255,242 275,000 2,255,242 326,889 26,515 1,954,868 275,000 1,954,868 326,889 97,500 21,044 1,551,524 275,000 1,551,524 335,061 16,726 1,233,189 275,000 1,233,189 335,061 97,500 11,009 811,637 275,000 811,637 335,061 6,553 483,129 275,000 483,129 335,061 97,500 695 51,264 2,200,000 $ 2,647,798 390,000 | $ 149,061 Construction Costs 2,647,798 Interest During Construction 240,939 Financing Costs 60,000 Rounding 51,264 Total Debt Issue 3,000,000 Annual Debt Service 229,732 Fuel Cost $ 53.40 /ton Use 27,920 BTU/kWh Energy 8,500 Btu/Ib Limestone 10% of fuel costs Ash Formation 10% of coal weight Removal $ 20.00 /ton Parts/Supplies $ 83,000 /year Utilities $ 21,000 /year Incremental Ops $ - 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20u 2012 2013 2014 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Annual Peak 4u4 aM 418 422 427 431 435 439 444 448 483 487 462 467 471 416 481 485 490 495 500 508 510 $is 520 $26 Existing Resources 1990 Diese! 565 365 565 363 365 565 565 565 365 565 568 565 565 365 565 365 365 565 365 365 565 565 565 565 $65 $65 199% Diesel 580 580 550 550 550 580 580, 550 550 S80 580 S50 S50 $50 $50, 550 550 550 $30 580 550 550 $50 $50 550 ‘$50 New Resoruces Hydro : : . - 2 7 - 7 7 : : : : Ml Wind : - ° = 3 : : S : i: - Z 5 crt : - : : : : : : : - - cT2 : : : : : : : - - - : : : : - Coal : : : : : : : 500 500 500 300 $00 500 500 $00 500 300 $00 500 $00 300 $00 00 500 300 $00 New Diesel New I - - - : - - - - - - - - - - - New 2 : - : : - - : : : : New 3 : : : : - : - - . : : : - : New 4 : - ~ - = - # = _ a s : - - . 2 = a : - : : New § - - = iu 7 u - . - . . . - New 6 : : - - - - - - - - - - : : - - - - - : - - Total Installed us 1s HUIS Wns TNS, Wnts UNS: 161s Lois 1615 1615 1615 1615 161s 1615 161s 1615 161s Lois 161s 1,615 161s 1615 1615 161s 161s Less Largest Unit (365) (365)_—(565)_— (865) (S65) (565) (565)_—(S65)-—(865)—(S65)_—(565)—(565)_—(S65)——(565) (S65) (S65) (565) (S65) (865)—«(S6S)—(865)— (S68) (365)—(565) (565) (565), Reserves 136 136 132 128 123 ny 1s 61 606 602 397 593 588 583 379 574 569 565 560 355 350 545 540 535 $30 524 228 2026-2027, 2028202 2030 0312 2032, 0383 UH 03S 08H 2037 203k 0389 22 SKS 202 20482092080) $36 $42 347 $52 S58 564 569 $78 S81 S86 392 SOR 604 610 616 623 629 638 at 648, 654 661 667 674 681 688 365 365 365 568 565 368 365 56S 365 365 365 365 368 365 565 565 365 563 363 565 565 565 565 3565 565 565 580 $80, 880 ss0 $80 $80 580, $80. 380 $80, $50 $80 $80 $50 580, $50 $80 550 $50 $50 $50 $50 $80 $50 580 550 $00 500 $00 500 500 500 500 500 500 $00 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 $00 $00 $00 500 S00 500 1615 16IS GIS GIS A GIS AGIS GIS GIS GIS NGI AOISNOIS GIS GIS AGIS GIS AIS GIS GIS GIS GIS GIS GIS GIS AIS AGS. (365) (36S) (S65) (565) (565) (86S) (565) (565) (S65) (S65) (565) (565) (565) (565) (S65) (565) (565) (565) ($65) (565) (S65) (565) (S65) (56S) (865) (565) si4 508 $03 498 492 486 481 475 469 464 458 452 446 440 34 427 421 ais 409 402 396 389 383 376 369 362 Requirements (MWh): Energy Sales Street Lights Losses/Station Use Total Requirements Generation Diesel Hydro Wind ct cT2 Coal Total Generation 1998 ioe 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20u 20122013 2014 201820162017 2020 2222023 1.7400 1.74000 175817781793 8D 1,829 1.847 1,866 1.884 1,903 1,922.94 1,961 1,980 2,000 2.020 2.041 2,061 2,082, 2,102, 2,123 21458 2,166 2,188 2,210 30 30 50 30 30 30 0 50 so 30 30 50 30 30 30 50 50 30 30 50 50 30 30 50 50 50 199 199 201 203 205 207 209 2u1 213 215 217 219 221 223 226 228 230 232 235 237 239 241 244 246 249 251 1.989 1,989 2,008 2.028 2.048 2.068 2.088 2.108 21292149 2.170 192.213 2.234 2.286 2.278 2,300 2.323 24S 2.368 2391 AIS 2438 2.462 2.4862. SIT 1.989 1,989 2.008 2,028 2.048 2.068 2,08 2 213 21s 217 219 221 223 226 228 230 232 235 237 239 241 244 246, 249 251 : : : : : : : 1897 1,916 1.934 1.953 1.972 992.01 2.030 2.080 2.070 2.091 ANE 2,132 2.122.173 29S 2.216 2.238 2,260 1,989 1,989 2.008 2.028 2,048 2,068 20882108 2.129 2.149 217021912213 2,234 2.256 2.278 2.300, 2,323 2,348 236K 2,301 AIS 243K 2.462 2.486 2,STT 2024-2028 0262027, 28 2029 2030 082032038334 03S BH 2037-2038 2039 HOHE 20822083 $US 0G HTH 292080 22320 2254 2.277 2,299 -2.322 2.346 2,369 2393 241TH 2465 2.490 2540 2,565 2.591 -2.617 2,643 2,669 2.696 = 2.723 2,780 2.778 = 2,806 2.834 2,862 2,891 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 30 50 50 50 30 30 50 30 50 50 50 30 50 50 50 50 259 261 264 266 269 271 274 277 279 282 285 288 291 293 296 299 302 305 308 3 314 317 320 324 327 2585 2.610 2.636 2.662 2.688 2.714 2.741 2.767 2.798 2.822 2.850 2.878 2.906 2.934 2.963 2.992 3.022, 3.051 3.081 MNT 3.142, 3.173 3.204 3,236 3.267 254 286, 259 261 264 266 269 21 24 2 279 282 285 288 291 293 296, 299 302 305 308 au 314 317 320 324 327 2.282 2.304 2.327 2.349 2.372 2.306 2.419 2.443 2.467 2492S 2.540 2.500 2618 2.641 2.667 2.693 2.719 2,746 2.773 2.800 2.828 2.856 2.884.912 2.94 2535 2860-2585 2,610 2.636 2.662 26RR— 2.714 2,741 2,767 2,798 2,822. 2878 2.906 2.934 2.963 2,902, 3,022, 3,051 3,081 IIT 3,142 3,173 3,204 3,236 3,267 Dollars in Thousands Hydro Debt Service O&M Subtotal Debt Service O&M Subtotal Coal Debt Service Fuel Limestone Ash Removal Parts/Supplies Utilities Incremental Ops Subtotal ‘Combustion Turbine Debt Service 1 Debt Service 2 Fuel Variable O&M 1 Variable O&M 2 Subtotal Intemal Combustion Debt Service Fuel Overhaul Costs Variable O&M. Subtotal Total Fuel Quantities Diesel (000 gallons) Int. Combustion cT Coal (tons) Ash (tons) 1908 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20u 202 2013 2014 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 - - - - = . = 230 230 230, 230 230 230, 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 - - - - - - : 191 197 203 209 25 222 228 235 242 249 257 264 22 280 289 298 306 316 - : - - - : - 19 20 20 2 22 22 23 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 = - - - =i S - 7 & & & 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 " " 2 12 2 13 13 = : - - - - - 99 to tos 106, 109 m2 4 7 120 123 126 129 133 136 139 143 146 150 - - : : - : - 28 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 a 2 33 4 4 38 36 37 38 - - - - - - - S71 581 SOL 601 6ll 622 633 645 656 668 681 694 107 nr20 TM 748 163 118 151 154 160 165 1 7 183 19 20 20 2 2 23 23 ry 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 u u u 2 2 t l ! 1 l l 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 246 250 256 262 268 214 281 29 29 30 3 32 33 33 M4 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 a2 44 4s 246 250 256 262 268 274 281 600 610 621 632 643 655, 667 679 691 705 18 732 746, 760 78 m1 807 823 1807 1507 152.2 153.6 155.1 156.6 — 1SR2 16.0 161 163 164 16.6 16.8 16.9 mW 173 174 176 178 179 1k 183 18S 18.7 IRR : - - - - - - 3.6 3.146 3,177 3.208 3.239 3.271 3.303, 3,335 3,367 3,400 3,433 3.467 3,501, 3,535 3,569 3.604 3.640 3,675, - - - - - - - 312 315 318 321 324 327 330 333 337 340 343 347 350 353 357 360 364 368 20230-2024 0S HC 8 08S UH Kk 0 20S T2080 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 < “ - - : . - : - - 7 - : - : 325 335 MS 348. 352 385 359 362 366 373 377 380 384 388 391 395 399 403 40704 als 419-423, 42743243640 B 3 M 38 35 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 8 8 39 40 40 40 at 4 a2 2 2 B 8 “4 “4 M4 M4 1s Is Is 1 1s 1s 16 16 16 6 16 7 7 "7 ” ” "” 18 18 18 18 8 18 19 19 s4 158 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 39 40 al 41 41 41 4 4 41 4 4 4 41 al 4 4 41 4 4 4 at 41 41 4 4 4 4 794 810826 830 834 838 842 846 850 854 858 863 637 6a 646 650 654 659 663 (668 6 677682686691 696 701 706 38 36 38 38 39 39 39 40 40 40 4 at 2 2 2 B B “4 “4 45 48 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 n N un 2 2 B 4 Is 16 7 18 19 20 21 2B 4 2s 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 46 47 49 49 30 st st 32 33 33 34 ss 36 56 37 38 39 60 62 63 65 66 68 69 1 B 1s 7 B40 857 875 880 B84 RRO 893 ROR 903 907 912 917 693 698 703 708 74 ne ns TL 77 743 749 756 162 769 776 782 19.0 19.2 lo4 19.6 198 200 20.2 204 206 208 210 212 24 216 218 22.0 222 224 227 229 2.4 23.3 236 238 40 243 245 248 371 3.747 3,784 3.821 385K 3.896 3.934 3.973 4012-4051 4.0914 IL ITE, 4.212, 4,253 4.298 4,337 4,380 4.423 4.466 45104, S54 4,599 4644 4,690 4,736 4,782 4,829. 371 375 378 382 386 390 393 307 401 405 409 413 417 421 425 430 434 438 442 447 451 455 460 464 469 474 478 483 Peak Internal Combustion Case Largest Unit AW-mo 2nd unit Months Averge Loading Perecnt Loading Hours 2nd Unit Hours Ist Unit 2EgE E Pieezerkgtze yieezee 1908 1009 200) aM 4 385 387 a4 352 323 275 286 310 31 381 403 ang 2m m2 kw kT ek km i ek SG ee Ga ea $2 8.760 298 295 382 359 330 NG 280 291 316 337 388 412 427 8.760 397 399 386 363 333 39 283 204 39 aM 392 416 aM 401 403 389 266 336 322 286 297 32 a 396 420 ARS 403 407 398 370 340 325 289 326 37 400 424 49 409 au 297 374 33 228 291 303 329 351 404 428 4 4B AS 401 a7 36 332 204 332 ast AR 448 47 419 403 381 330 aS 27 335 358, 42 437 433 21 423 409 385 333 238 300 32 39 362 416 a 437 AG 428 4nd 389 357 42 303 36 M2 365 a ANG 462 420 432 418 393 MS 306 319 36 369 425 430 467 aM ARG a2 397 364 Mo 309 322 39 32 429 435 71 439 aa 426 401 382 312 325 353 376 433 439 476 4B 43 430 405 371 356 6 328 356 380 438, 464 481 a7 430 435 375 359 39 322 384 42 468, 485 482 434 429 4B 379 363 322 35 363 388 47 473 490 436 439 wR 417 383 325 338 367 391 451 478 495 461 463 a8 221 370 328 M2 a1 395 436 483 300 452 425 390 a4 332 MS a4 399 487 305 470 an 437 29 204 7 335 49 378 403 465 42 510 475 477 461 4B 398 381 338 352 407 497 sis 480 482 438 385 M2 356 386 au m4 502 520 484 487 a 442 389 MS 359 ANG 479 526 489 492 478 47 410 393 349 363 393 420 484 32 3M 494 497 480 431 a4 397 382 397 a4 37 499 302 485, 456 418 401 336 370 401 428 493 323 504 07 490 23 405 359 am 405 432 498 528 437 533 sid 317 499 470 a1 4B 381 4B 4a 538 319 322 sot 44 ABS 47 370 385 418, 446 313 ut 525 327 309 479 440 a1 a4 422 450 518 549 520 522 315 484 44 as a7 393 126 454 34 335 203 31s 335 538 320 489 49 430 381 37 430 439 329 581 g 876 sn sah 328 494 453 aM 385 401 aM 464 SM 876 546 S48 530 499, 438 48 389 405 439 468 339 a 331 334 535 4B 393 43 473 53 a7 2036 598 18 uM 876 337 560 SH 467 a7 397 4B 448 478 350 383 2032-038 tS GT Gow 365 mM 2 32 876 562 365 516 su an 432 401 47 432 482 336 589 10 365 9 1 31 876 sm 382 319 416 436 403 at 437 487 361 595 GIG 365 38 uW 1 876 su 576 337 su 481 461 a3 461 492 367 wl 623 365 al 4 20 0 108 876 380 382 563 329 486 465 4B 430 497 373 wr 29 365 108, 2 WB 876 585 388 368 3M 491 470 47 aM 470 502 578 613 35 391 34 sm 540 496 473 ani 438, 475 307 584 619 on 397 380 345 301 479 425 43 480 312 590 os 648 197 351 484 430 47 485 3i7 GH 654 365 nu 43 301 876 6 592 $36 su 489 4 431 490 32 2 638 61 563 237 31 a2 876 61s, Gig 397 362 516 494 438 436 494 528 OM 61 365 291 6 8 ° 386 876 61 ou 3 367 321 499 43 461 499 533 ou 630 on 565 3228 6 35 o 433 876 os 630 wo sn 526 304 47 465 504 538 620 637 81 oM a7 16 379 sa 492 470 026 63 688 565 402 6 o ° su 876 40, 68 622 585 337 su 436 m4 51s 549 633 670 Hydro 2005 Diesel Life Unit 3508 3508 New Diesel | New Diesel 2 New Diesel 3 New Diesel 4 New Diesel 5 New Diesel 6 New Diesel 7 Hydro. cTl Cr2 Coal Wind Fuel Efficiencies Int Combustion cT Coal Load Growth 1997-1999 2000-2025 2026-2050 Street Lights Station Use/Losses Average’Peak Load Fuel Cost Variable O&M 1. C. Overhaul Int. Combustion cT General Inflation General Last Year Infl Diesel Inflation Ist Period 2nd Period Break Year Coal Inflation 60 Year Capacity _ Installed Retire 565 1990 2050 550 1998 2058 650 60 650 60 550 60 650 60 550 60 550 60 550 60 700 2005 3000 508 3000 2030 508 3000 3000 500 3000 3000 0 3000 3000 550 $ 280,000 650 $ 350,000 800 $ 425,000 1,000 $ 500,000 13.2 kWh (generation)/gallon Attached Attached 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 50,000 10% of generation 55% $1.00 /gallon $5.00 /operating hour $ 0,005 ‘Wh $5.00 /operating hour 2.5% 2025 2.5% 0.0% 2025 2.0% Energy (MWh) 3,300 150 Max Plant Fetr 90% 90% 90% Amort Period 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 30 20 20 30 15 Int Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.0% Construction Cost (1998$) 350,000 350,000 280,000 350,000 280.000 280,000 280,000 4,100,000 325,000 325,000 2,200,000 258,000 Construction Cost (Nominal) 4,873,612 633,035 633,035 4,285,160 502,532 O&M 1998 = 1999 0000 2002 2003S 2004S 0S 202007 00 2008, 2010 201k 202 08 dS 0202092020 0k 022023 Annual Peak 44 44 48 422 427 43 435 439 44 AAR 453 487 462 467 471 476 aad 48S 490 495 500 505 510 SIS 520 526 Existing Resources 1990 Diesel 365 365 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 $65 565 365 565 565 365 565 565 565 565 199K Diesel 550 550 550 550 550 sso $80 550 550 550 550 550 580 580 550 $50 580 550 550 550 550 $50 $50 550 550 New Resonuces Hydro : - - : : : : 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 Wind : : : - - : : : : : : : : : - - : : : : : : - : - : New Diesel New 2 - - - - - - - - : - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - New 3 : : - - - - - : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : H 7 a New 4 - - - - - - : - - - - - - - - - . - - - - - - - - - New 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : - - - - - - Total Installed 1S: 1s 1s ats Wnts HANS 1s: VIS ERIS LIS 1gIs TRIS TRIS WARIS 18IS TRIS 1RIS 1 Ris 18Is IRIS Lats 18S IRIs RIS Ugts 18is Less Largest Unit (565) (565) (365) (565) (563) (365) (565) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) Reserves 136 136 132 128 123 19 1s 676 671 667 662 658 653 648, ot 639 634 630 625 620 61s 610 605 600 595 589 Zod 02S 20262027, 02k 2d 2030 2032203830848 2037 KRY 20H 0 2203 SGT 204K 2080 su 536 S42 S47 $82 388 S64 569 578 581 586, 502 SOR 604 610 616 623 629 635 641 648 654 661 667 674 681 688 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 365 565 365 565 565 565 565 565 $65 568 565 580 $80 530 580, 580, 850 850 550 550 550 850, 580 580 580, 580, $50, 850 550 $50 580, 550 550 850 $50 $80 550 $50 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 IRIS ARIS ARIS ARIS 1S ARIS ARIS RIS ARIS BIS ARIS RIS BIS BIS WRIS ARIS ARIS RIS RES ARIS ARIS ARIS RIS ARIS ARIS ARIS ARIS, (700) (700) -——(700)—(700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) (700) 584 379 $73 568 363 357 351 346 340 334 $29 $23 317 su 0s 499 492 486 480 44 467 461 4s4 448 441 434 427 Requirements (MWh) Energy Sales Street Lights Losses/Station Use Total Requirements Generation Diesel Hydro. Wind ct cT2 Coal Total Generation 1998 1y99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2006-2007 2008 2009 210 20 2012 2013-2014 2018 20162017 201820192020 02k 022023 1740 1740 1,758 1,775 1,793 18th 1,829 1.847 1.866 1.884 1.903 1922 1.941 1,961 1.980 2.000 2.020 2,041 2,061 2.082, 2,102, 2.123 14S 2,166 2.188 2,210 50 30 50 50 30 so so 0 30 30 30 30 s0 30 30 50 50 30 30 30 30 50 50 30 50 50 199 199 201 203 205 207 209 2u 213 215 217 219 221 223 226 228 230 232 235 237 239 241 244 246 249 251 1.989 1.989 2.008 2.028 2.048 2.068 2.088 2.108 2.120 2.92170 YE 2.213 2.2384 2.256 2.278 2.300 2.323 24S 236K 2391 24IS 2.438 2.462 2.486 2.51 1,989 1,989 2,008 2,028 2.048 2,068 2,08 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : : : : : : 2108 2.129 21492170 2.9L 2.213 2.234 2,256 2.278 2,300 2.323 2348 2.368 2391 24S 2438 2,462 2.486 2,51 1.989 1,989 2.008 2,028 2,048 2,068 2.088 2.108 2.129 2,149 2170 DIVE 22132234 2,256 2,278 2,300 2.323 2.345 236K 2391 AIS 243K 2,462 2.4RH DSH 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2038 2036 2037 2038 20322040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 204620472088 0H 2050 2.2320 2254 2277-2209 2322 2.346 2.369 2.303 AIT 24424652490 2,S1S 2.540 2.565 2,501 2,617 2,643 2.669 2.696 2.723 2,780 2,778 2.806 2834 2,862 2,891 30 30 30 30 30 50 50 30 30 30 30 50 30 50 50 50 30 30 350 30 350 50 50 30 30 50 so 254 256 259 261 264 266 269 271 274 277 279 282 285 288 291 293 296 299 302 305 308 3 314 37 320 324 327 2538 2.560 2.585 2.610 2.636 2.662, 2.688 2.714 2.741 2.767 2.798 2.822 2.850 2.878 2.906 2.934 2.963 2.992 3.022, 3.051 3.081 MNT 3,423,173 3.208 3.236 3,267 2.560 2583-2610 2.636 2.662, 2.688 2.714 2.741 2,767 2.795 2.822 2,850 2.878 2,906 2,934 2,963 2,992 3.022, 3,051 3.081. 3.142 3,173 3.204 3,236 3,267 2535 2560 2585 2,610 2.636 2.662 2.68R 2.714 2.741 2.767 2.705 2.822 2.850 2.RTR 2.906 2,934 2.963 2,992, 3,022, 3,051 3,081 HIN 3,142 3,173 3.204. 3,236 3,267 Dollars in Thousands: vs yy 200k 2022032008 2G 272k NS mk Hydro Debt Service : : . - - - - 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 O&M : : : : : : : 59 ol 62 Oo 6 67 “9 7 n ” 6 % 80 82 as %6 ae 0 Subtotal - : : é = : 469 47 42478 ATS 77 79RD ARD ARAKI 92H 49H R00 Wind Debt Service : : : : 2 : = - : : : - : : : : : - - Coat Fuel : : : : : : : - : : : : : : : - Ash Removal - - - - - - - - - - - - : . : - : ° - - - - - - - Utilities = 2" Z : - : 7 a : : e : 5 s = - L 2 : 5 - z 5 ‘ Combustion Turbine Fuel - - . - - . - - - : . - : : - - - - - : - - - - . Variable O&M | - - - - - . so - : - - - : - - - - - - - - - - - . Variable O&M 2 : : : : : : - - : : - - : - - - - - - - - - - - . Internal Combustion Debt Service - - : : - - - Fuel Ist 1s4 160 165 m1 7 183 - - : ‘ : a 2 - = = E e 7 . a = ai a Overhaul Costs 85 8s 85 8s 8s 85 85 - : - - - - - - - - = . = is 2 = i ‘ Variable O&M. 10 10 u u u 2 2 : : : = es - : - S = ° : = 5 5 . 7 = Subtotal 246 250 256 262 268 24 281 - : - : - - - - - - - - - - - - . . Total 246 250 256 262 268 28 281 469 471 4n 44 475 477 479 480 482 484 486 488 490 492 494 496 498 Fuel Quantities Dicscl (000 gallons) Int. Combustion 180.7 150.7 1822 153.6 185.1 156.6 158.2 - - - - - - - - - : - - - - . - - - 202302024028 Gwe 0k 208 SS 0G 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 - : - : e e 93 9s 7 7 7 97 7 97 97 97 97 97 7 97 97 97 97 97 2041-2042 2083 2040S 0G 2TH 2050 97 97 7 97 7 o7 97 97 97 97 502 505 307 507 507 07 507 507 507 507 307 507 o7 97 97 7 97 97 o7 97 97 97 97 7 97 7 97 97 502 50S 507 507 507 507 $07 307 507 807 507 507 97 7 o7 o7 7 97 7 97 97 97 7 97 7 7 7 7