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Electric Load Forecasts for Haines, Chilkat Valley & Kane Alaska - Final Report 11-1995
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA ANCHORAGE ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTS FOR HAINES, CHILKAT VALLEY & KAKE, AK. FINAL REPORT, ISER, 8/11/95 DATE ISSUED TO ~ HIGHSMITH 42-222 Electric Load Forecasts for Haines, Chilkat Valley, and Kake, Alaska Final Report prepared for: Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs Division of Energy 333 West 4" Avenue Anchorage, Alaska 99501 prepared by: Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage AK 99508 907-786-7736 Alan Mitchell Analysis North August 11, 1995 This page intentionally blank Electric Load Forecasts for Haines, Chilkat Valley, and Kake, Alaska Summary of Conclusions ................ 1. Introduction and Methodology.... ed iPUMDOSSIOTthIS| Study Pernecsresteseesrecstececessescessce seeseuseencesceeronszcenctoresessresseterree teeters f-2 Forecasting MetnOdology sscccrse--ccessecsreacevoccececceesvarecesuvecasstcsesesctecoseersseecsescsessecetes 1.3 Induced Economic Effects of Large Loads. ................ 1.4 Assumptions about Residential Use per Customer : 1.5 Assumptions About Commercial Use per Employee ...............:ccceeeceeeseeeeseeseeseeeees 1.6 Calculation of Energy Requirements and Peak Load ............eceecceeseeeseeeeseeeeseeeees 2. Haines Light & Power Area Forecast................+ 2.1 The Haines Borough Economy ..................ccecceeeeesseeeeeeees 2.2 Summary of Scenario Assumptions 2.3 Residential Use per Customer and Large Loads... 2.4 Forecast ReSults 00.0.0... ee cececeseeeeeeesnecsseeeeeseecseeeeeeeaeesaeeenaeesseeeeaeenes 3. Ghilkat)Valloy, FOreCaSt).....:-c.-.:.cccoccccsssescescssscctecscsssececcnressseeesa 3.1 Background Discussion .................... pease vases avensesrevessrsavesesweurs?3 3.2 Summary of Scenario Assumptions... 3.3 Large Loads...........cceeeeceeseeeeeereenees 3.4 Chilkat Forecast Results ............0.... 3.5 Estimated Load of Klukwan Village..... bass deseseusenessuvecsusetssosaesssea 4. Kake Area Forecast..............:00008 bso _ AM TMIMONAKE: ECONOMY sesccesececcercsrcecctcencoscce rece ncsererecetarceee rere erent teen teen eeoneees 4.2 Historical Power Consumption ........... ccc eeceeeceeeeeseeeeeeeeceeeeesseaecessececseeeesnseeetaees 4.3 Kake Economic Growth Scenarios 4.4 Kake Forecast Results................00 FRETEPEMNCES ciccccccscccccccccsccccosecccscascacsacccansccccacceccsceccesncccstecrsestcccrscssnaccsaraces Appendix A: Compilation of Existing Load Forecasts for Angoon, Hoonah, Juneau, Sitka, Tenakee Springs. Appendix B: MAP Model Input Assumptions Appendix C: Comparison of Actual to Forecast Values for Ketchikan and Petersburg Appendix D: Comments from the Draft, with Responses List of Tables Table 1: Haines Borough Wage & Salary Employment................c::cccccccsccsccesscesseeeseeeeee 10 Table 2: Haines Area Economic Growth Projections....................:ccccccesseeeseeeee m2. Table 3: Haines Light & Power Low Case Forecast.. m5 jnable:4:\Haines) Light &|Power|Mid|GCase) Forecast eee 16 Wable(S2Haines Hight(&|Powentligh|Case| Forecasti eee a Table 6: Chilkat Valley Low Case Forecast............... m2. Table 7: Chilkat Valley Mid Case Forecast....... M24) jtable'8.GhilkatiValley/High\Gase) Fore cas tee oe ooo LL Le ae AMM 26 Table 9: Estimated Klukwan Energy Requirements ..................::ccssccssseessesseeseseceneceeeeees 28 Table 10 Klukwan Load Projections ................e Table 11: Kake Historical Employment Table 12: Kake Historical Usage Data.......... Table 13: Kake Low Case Forecast ............. Table 14: Kake Mid Case Forecast Mi able):5:)Kake) High Case! F0Te Cas tooeoe coor CCC UCU List of Figures Figure}jResidentiallUseiper Customer ea EN 6 Figure:24 Commercial, Use]peh EMployeo ALOU ALU NO a Figure 3: Haines Light & Power Forecast Summary............ wid 4 Figure 4: Chilkat Valley Residential Customer Projections...... 9 Figure 5: Chilkat Small Commercial Customer Projections ...............:c::cescesseeeeeeeeteeeeeees 20 Figurei6)Chilkatwalley/ Forecast SUMMaly ee UUM a Figure 7: Seasonal Pattern of Recent Kake Load .. Figure 8: Projected Kake Residential Customers Figure 9: Projected Kake Support Employment... Figures 0:Kake| Forecast. SuUMMaly ee Ea this page intentionally blank Summary of Conclusions Haines Light & Power Area Energy requirements in the Haines Light & Power area are projected to grow at an average annual rate’ of between 1.4 and 4.1 percent between 1993 and 2014. Growth in Haines is currently being fueled by a localized tourism and real estate boom. How long this boom lasts is the critical factor affecting load growth. Upper Chilkat Valley (THREA) and Village of Klukwan This newly served area had minimal sales of 352 Megawatt-hours (MWh) in 1993, and will see rapid sales growth as existing households hook up and acquire appliances. The addition this year of the U.S. and Canadian border stations will substantially boost sales. Overall average growth in Energy requirements for the 1993-2014 period ranges between 8.8 and 12.1 percent and depends on varying assumptions about residential and commercial class growth rates that are largely tied to those in Haines. The current energy requirements in Klukwan are estimated to be about 940 MWh. For planning purposes we assume that the Klukwan load will grow at between 0.0 and 2.0 percent. Combined Haines/Chilkat/Klukwan Area Because the Chilkat Valley and Klukwan loads are small compared to that of Haines, the average growth in energy requirements for the combined planning area is similar to that in Haines. Nonetheless, combined requirements grow slightly faster than those in Haines, at annual rates ranging from 1.7 to 4.5 percent. Haines/Chilkat/Klukwan Net Generation 35,000 — 30,000 | =e 25,000 | a : 20,000 | = MWh 15,000 | 10,000 4 5,000 0 pei 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2003 2005 2007 2009 ~< 2001 2011 2013 ear 'The term “average annual rate” is used in the standard way. It is the geometric mean of a series of year- to-year percentage growth rates. It incorporates the effect of compounded growth. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 1 Kake Area Load growth in Kake will depend heavily on how much additional fish processing capacity is brought on line and how intensively the plants are used. When the Kake Fisheries cold storage plant switched to grid electricity in 1993, THREA’s sales in Kake jumped 27 percent. A recently completed salmon ham processing plant and a planned rehabilitation of a canning line could boost sales by another 30 to 50 percent over levels caused by general economic growth. Overall, energy requirements in Kake are expected to grow at average annual rates of between 0.8 and 4.2 percent between 1993 and 2014. Because the large fish processing loads are strongly summer-peaking while the general community load is winter peaking, total peak load will grow more slowly than energy requirements if these projects come on line. Peak load is projected to grow at between 0.6 and 3.3 percent. Kake Net Generation 10,000 9,000 _ 8,000 - 7,000 . 6,000 - = 5,000. = 4,000 . 3,000 _ 2,000 | 1,000 0 eee oO wo ld a _ oOo wo y a = oO or a = oO o o oo o Qa a a Q a So So oo So = = a oo a a a ao a oa oa So So o fo ce So Oo eer ere ere Ke KF KF KF KE NNN NNR Year Summary of Forecast Results (average annual growth rates, 1993-2014) Low Mid High Haines Light & Power (HL&P) Energy requirements 1.4% 2.2% 4.1% Peak Demand 1.5% 2.3% 4.2% Upper Chilkat Valley (THREA) Energy requirements 8.8% 10.7% 12.1% Peak Demand 8.1% 10.1% 11.4% Combined HL&P / Chilkat / Klukwan Load Center Energy requirements 1.7% 2.7% 45% Peak Demand 1.7% 2.7% 4.5% Kake (THREA) Energy requirements 0.8% 2.4% 4.2% Peak Demand 0.6% 2.2% 3.3% 2 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 1. Introduction and Methodology 1.1 Purpose of this Study This report presents separate electric load forecasts for the following areas of upper Southeast Alaska: 1. Haines area (entire service territory of Haines Light & Power (HL&P)) 2. Upper Chilkat Valley (served by Tlingit-Haida Regional Electrical Authority (THREA)) 3. Community of Kake (served by THREA) The Haines and Upper Chilkat Valley areas are contiguous and form a common load center stretching along the Haines Highway from the City of Haines at the head of Lynn Canal to the Canadian border. The Kake load center is located 200 miles to the south, on the northwest corner of Kupreanof Island. In addition we report an estimated load for the village of Klukwan (located within the Chilkat Valley geographic area). We also present a compilation of existing load projections for the communities of Angoon, Hoonah, Juneau, Sitka, and Tenakee Springs. These projections were prepared by others and are reported here for use in assessing possible intertie projects that might serve the communities. The report is organized as follows. The rest of this chapter discusses in general terms how the forecasts were produced. Chapters two through four present the individual load forecasts for each community. Appendix A summarizes the existing load projections for other Southeast communities. Appendix B lays out the assumptions underlying the baseline economic growth projections for the region. Appendix C provides a limited comparison of recent actual loads in Ketchikan and Petersburg with those forecast five years ago using similar methods as we employ here. Appendix D contains comments received on the draft report. 1.2 Forecasting Methodology Volatile economic growth driven by swings in the timber, mining, and fishing industries has been the historical rule in all three study areas. Recently tourism and retirementilifestyle living have emerged as important sources of growth in the Haines area, while fish processing is booming in Kake. On top of this economic volatility there is additional volatility in electric loads resulting from high-load facilities (such as sawmills and fish processing operations) that start and stop operations and go on and off the utility grid. Because the residential and small commercial loads in the study communities are relatively small, one such large facility can dramatically change the load for the entire community. Scenario building is the only effective way to deal with these uncertainties. This report presents Low, Mid, and High scenarios for load growth. Each scenario is a combination Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 ej of particular critical assumptions about baseline economic growth, special economic events, consumption per customer, and large, unique electric loads. The Low forecast scenario combines ail of the “Low’ critical assumptions. The High forecast scenario combines all of the “High” critical assumptions. Since some of these events are independent, it is extremely unlikely that the actual electric load will be outside of the boundaries set by the Low and High cases, so long as the critical assumptions themselves cover the plausible range of outcomes. This method also means that it is not necessary to pin down all possible sources of future growth. It suffices to consider most plausible sources of growth. The Mid case forecast combines reasonable, mid-level values for the critical assumptions. However, we have made no attempt to place subjective probabilities on any of the critical assumptions. Therefore, it is not possible to say that the Mid case represents a “most likely” forecast. Rather, it should be interpreted simply as the result of combining these mid-level critical assumptions. The Low, Mid, and High forecasts, then, are projections of the electric load that results from the Low, Mid, and High scenarios. It is ultimately up to the reader to evaluate the plausibility of the critical assumptions and to decide what weight to give the three alternative projections. The forecasting model treats the following sources of load separately: Residential Sales = Residential Customers x Use per Customer Commercial Sales = Support Employment x Use per Employee Specific Large Customer Sales = sum of all assumed specific large loads Street Lights’& Losses = Based on historical ratios Peak Load = Calculated in two steps. Step 1: General “city” load computed from energy requirements and assumed load factor. Step 2: Highly seasonal large loads compared to city loads ona month-by month basis to determine combined peak. The variables on the right side of these equations were developed from critical assumptions as follows. Econometric projections generated by the ISER Man in the Arctic Program Econometric Model (MAP) provide underlying regional employment and household projections. Some special assumptions about specific local economic growth were added to the MAP projections. (These are discussed in the chapters on each forecast). Trends in use per customer are assumed as discussed below. Large load scenarios are assumed as discussed below with each community forecast. a Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 1.3 Induced Economic Effects of Large Loads There are additional residential customers and induced commercial sector growth associated with specific large loads. The assumed multiplier effects of these large loads are as follows: e Every high-wage employee generates a new residential electric customer. e Every ten high-wage employees generate three induced support sector jobs, which in turn generate commercial sector electricity consumption. e Every two “induced” support sector employees generate a new residential electric customer. This method of accounting for the effects of large loads avoids the need to generate specific economic projection cases for every combination of large loads. The employment multiplier of 1.3 is based on the latest input-output modeling reported by Goldsmith (1995, Table 8, page 27). In these exercises, Goldsmith found an overall statewide employment multiplier of 1.4 for high-wage direct jobs such as those provided by the oil industry. The lower value of 1.3 used here reflects the fact that the multiplier is lower in smaller communities, as well as the fact that not all fish processing jobs pay as much as oil industry jobs. 1.4 Assumptions about Residential Use per Customer We measure residential energy intensity as kWh per customer per year. Weather and vacancy rates cause short-term fluctuations over time. Income, alternative heating fuels, accessibility to oil delivery, and seasonal occupancy patterns help determine use in particular places. A second home, for example, typically has low use due to partial occupancy. But a partly occupied, inaccessible home in a moderate climate might choose to use electric space heat. Figure 1 shows that for Alaska, residential use per customer has been slowly declining towards 8,000 kWh per year, probably due to continuing natural gas conversions, stagnant income, and appliance efficiency standards. Residents of Kake and Haines face the high price of diesel power (even with State Power Cost Equalization Assistance) and their use is significantly lower—about 6,000 kWh per year. These people also tend to live in smaller houses, in mobile homes, and on boats (some of which are classified as residential customers). Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 5 Residential kWh/customer 9,000 8,000 —_,_ _-.—_*__ —o = 7,000 | 6,000 7 5,000 W227 —e— Alaska 4,000 = = = —s — 3,000 | — kWh/customer/year 2,000 1,000 0! 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Figure 1: Residential Use per Customer Although previous end use studies (Colt, 1989) have projected a continuing decline in residential use per customer, we do not feel comfortable extrapolating these results from the Alaska Railbelt to the small communities of this study. In Kake, there is pent- up housing demand and new HUD housing expected within the next few years. In Haines, a shift toward retirement living and continuing income growth could cause a significant increase in use. In the Upper Chilkat Valley initial use is very low because THREA power is replacing home generation. Significant increases are inevitable as people acquire appliances and build new homes in the service territory. Countering these upward trends are projected stagnant per-capita income in the overall Southeast Alaska economy, the continuing effect of appliance efficiency standards, and probable reductions in PCE assistance levels. The specific growth rates in residential use per customer adopted for the forecasts are based on consideration of all these factors, and are reported below with the individual community load forecasts. 1.5 Assumptions About Commercial Use per Employee Projecting commercial and community use on a per employee basis is a substitute for using floorspace as the driving variable. This method avoids the problems with projections based on use per commercial customer. A key question is what employment base to use in the projections. Wage and salary employment is the only series consistently available, but in many cases even these data are incomplete due to undisclosed items. 6 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 For Haines, we have sufficient data to use what we call “support employment” as the base for projections. This consists of wage and salary employment in trade, services, and government. It is a good base for projections since it includes most people who work indoors and excludes most people who work outdoors and people likely to be working for industrial establishments whose load is accounted for separately. For Chilkat Valley, there is no separate data on employment, so commercial use is projected on a per-customer basis. For Kake, the only available data are for total wage and salary employment. Figure 2 shows that for Alaska as a whole, commercial use per wage and salary employee has trended slowly upward at 0.39 percent per year since 1986. The statewide trend is very sensitive to the choice of the initial year. Measured from 1987 to 1993, statewide use per employee declined at an average rate of 0.7 percent per year. In fact, it is not possible to estimate a statistical trend for the 1986-1993 period that is significantly different from zero.” For Haines Light & Power the figure measures use per support employee. The level of use is about the same, but the growth has been slightly higher—about 1.3 percent per year between 1989 and 1994. Commercial Use per Employee 12,000 _ Haines Borough — 1989-94 avg growth 1.3% 10,000 8,000 _ Alaska — 1986-93 avg growth 0.39% 6,000 4,000 _ kWh/employee 2,000 0 | 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Figure 2: Commercial Use per Employee Considering these factors, we assume zero growth in commercial use per employee (per customer in Chilkat Valley) for the Low case, 1.3 percent for the High case, and 0.65 percent for the Mid case. The Mid case value is simply the average of the Low and High values. These rates are used for all three study areas. ? 'A log-linear regression of statewide use against time shows an overall decline of 0.12 % per year, but this trend is not statistically different from zero at even the 60% confidence interval. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Uh 1.6 Calculation of Energy Requirements and Peak Load Our forecasts of energy requirements are based on the net generation concept. The following diagram shows the relationship of these terms as used in this report. Gross Generation less: Station Service equals: Net Generation (energy leaving the plant) less: Transmission Losses equals: Energy Requirements (energy needed for distribution) less: Line Losses (energy lost in distribution) equals: Total Sales Since essentially all current generation sources in the study area are local, there is no difference between “net generation” and “energy requirements” in this study. We use the terms interchangeably. However, readers should be aware that we are excluding both station service and transmission losses in discussing energy requirements. If, for example, one were to use this load forecast as the basis for comparing local diesel generation to remote hydro generation, one would have to add in diesel station service in calculating diesel production costs, and one would have to add in hydro station service and transmission losses in calculating hydro production costs. Diesel station service for 1993 has been deducted from historical data to arrive at base year (1993) actual net generation. These numbers are reported as 144 MWh for THREA-Chilkat Valley, 109 MWh for THREA-Kake, and 492 MWh for HL&P. In calculating the Chilkat Valley peak load, we have assumed an interconnected grid for the purpose of determining the load factor. Thus, the Chilkat valley is assumed to have a relatively diversified load factor of 60%, equal to that of the HL&P area, because the two loads are essentially part of the same territory. While this assumption would not be appropriate for planning for an isolated Chilkat Valley diesel system, it provides a better approximation of the actual peak load for the combined Haines/Chilkat service area. 8 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 2. Haines Light & Power Area Forecast 2.1 The Haines Borough Economy The economy of the Haines Borough (Haines City and the Chilkat Valley) has traditionally been based on fishing and forest products. The outlook for these industries is best described as stable, according to local resource managers. We agree with this assessment. The fishing fleet, as measured by the number of limited entry permits registered to Haines residents, has hovered around 100 permits for the past several years and there are no major factors likely to change the number of boats or annual catch in the foreseeable future.° Local timber harvest is mostly from the Haines State Forest as Tongass National Forest Lands surrounding Haines are designated as LUD 2 -- off limits to logging -- by the 1990 Tongass Timber Reform Act. Maximum average allowable cut from the Haines State Forest is 7 million board feet per year, but recent harvests have averaged only about 4 million board feet. Much of the wood is used for pulp, since it has a high defect rate and hence a low opportunity cost in alternative uses. With the price of pulp at an all time high, this year’s harvest should increase to about 7 million board feet, which is enough activity to support about 16 total jobs. According to the State’s Area Forester it is unlikely that harvests will be sustained above the average 4 million board feet level for very long. This is because pulp prices are cyclical and the local demand for environmental protection appears to be growing. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the old Lutak sawmill will re-open. The mill used more than 10 times the maximum cut from the local area and got most of its wood barged up from Petersburg. It is in gross disrepair and most moveable equipment has been sold by creditors for salvage. Currently the Haines area is undergoing a rapid localized economic boom based on increased demands for real estate and tourism services. Total visitors nearly doubled since 1987 and total cruise ship passengers doubled from 1993 to 1994 (Morphet 1995). Between 1990 and 1993, the population of the City of Haines grew at an average annual rate of about 5.5 percent, which was one of the fastest growth rates in all Alaska. Table 1 shows wage and salary employment reported by the Alaska Department of Labor. The numbers for manufacturing, transportation and communications, and construction are contaminated by non-local employment and not very useful. The table shows rapid growth in the retail and service sectors, although local government employment has declined. This conclusion based on discussion with Kip Kermoian, District 115 Fisheries Technician, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, 7/25/95. ISER analysis of limited entry permit files confirms that the number of limited entry permits has hovered around 100 in recent years. * This paragraph based on interviews with Roy Josephson, Haines Area Regional Forester, Alaska Department of Natural Resources, 6/26/95, and Dr. Matt Berman, ISER, 6/22/95. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 9 Table 1: Haines Borough Wage & Salary Employment average average %chg %chg 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 89-93 )-94 Total 1,252 966 895 764 911 912 -7.6% -1.4% Construction 39 39 45 48 65 58 13.4% 10.3% Manufacturing 580 224 d 25 50 d T.C.U 131 170 168 117 131 150 0.0% -3.0% Wholesale 0 d d d d d Retail 156 163 151 141 163 175 1.1% 1.8% F.LR.E 17 17 16 17 17 17 0.4% -0.4% Services 92 102 114 113 122 125 7.5% 5.2% Fed Govt 9 9 9 9 9 10 0.0% 2.7% State Govt 43 41 40 39 38 38 -3.0% -2.0% Local Govt 183 189 192 196 195 191 1.6% 0.3% Disclosed 1,250 954 735 705 790 764 not disclosed 3 12 160 59 121 148 Total "Support" 499 521 522 515 544 556 2.2% 1.6% Total Government 235 239 241 244 242 239 0.7% 0.0% Notes: “d" = not disclosed TCU = transportation, communication, and utilities "Support" = all except construction, mfrg, and TCU manufacturing for 1992 and 1993 is estimate based on 2nd Q 1992 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate for 1994 not disclosed -- estimated based on 1993 Direct information from City and Borough Officials confirms that there is a residential building boom underway. Within the Haines City limits, the number of single family building permits increased from 2 in 1990 to 7 in 1993 and 1994. There are more than 57 subdivision lots in various stages of the platting and sales process.° Many of the new homes are large, and prices are high. And much additional building is taking place outside city limits. According to Haines Borough officials, there are over 1625 platted vacant lots potentially available for sale throughout the Borough.® It is clear that the current real estate boom will continue for the next few years. Factors supporting continued local growth beyond this period include a continuing increase in cruise ship docking throughout Alaska, the potential for more broadening and deepening of the Haines service economy, and the growing reputation of Haines as a great place to live. 5 Susan Johnston, Haines City Clerk, 7/31/95. 8 Jackie Martin, Haines Borough, 8/1/95 10 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 There are also several forces that could slow down the current boom. These include: possible slower growth in cruise ship traffic, statewide fiscal austerity (making Haines a less attractive place to retire), and a further easing of the level of dividends paid by Klukwan Inc., the ANCSA village corporation based just outside of Haines. The effects of fiscal austerity can already be seen in the recent decline in local government employment. During Alaska’s oil boom, government employment in small towns was largely driven by population, through the school foundation and revenue sharing programs. But in the future government employment will be largely determined by a shrinking state budget. Where in the past, for example, more children automatically led to more schoolteachers, it is possible that in the future more children will only lead to larger class sizes. 2.2 Summary of Scenario Assumptions To capture these uncertainties, we created three scenarios for growth in Haines. Each scenario has a foundation in one of the latest MAP statewide econometric model projections (Goldsmith 1994). The MAP model projections capture the effects of statewide fiscal conditions and regional basic sector projects. The fiscal conditions include the availability of funding for state and local government jobs and services. Schools are the most important local service that is largely funded by State dollars. The assumptions behind the MAP projections are shown in Appendix B. Low Case Although there is a “low” MAP model projection for the region, we regard it as too pessimistic given the current localized growth now occurring in Haines. Hence for the Low case Haines demographic scenario we use the MAP statewide “mid” case projections. Some key elements of this baseline growth include: Kensington Mine opens in 1996, but most employees live in Juneau A-J mine opens in 1996 Fish harvesting and processing employment constant Slight decline in logging and sawmill employment for Southeast Alaska as a whole To capture the current local growth, we have added the following specific sources of growth to the MAP projections: e Kensington Mine workers: Five settling in Haines in 1996, growing to 25 by the year 2000. Each creates a household and causes induced support sector growth (see section 1.3 above). e Retirees: 20 new retiree households by 1995, then growing at 5% per year. e Cruise ship visitors: 25,000 new visitors in. 1995 (relative to 1994), then growing at 2% per year. For each 10,000 visitors, a total of 8 commercial jobs and 4 new residential customers are created (Colt, 1992). Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 11 Essentially, then, the Low case Haines economic scenario assumes that the current local boom will “fizzle out” after a few years, leaving Haines to grow slowly with the rest of a subdued Alaska economy. The broadening and deepening of the service sector is a one-time event. Mid Case The Haines Mid case starts with the MAP “mid” case statewide projections and adds on the following specific sources of growth: e Kensington Mine workers: Ten in 1996, growing to 50 by the year 2000. Each creates a household and causes induced support sector growth (see section 1.3 above). e Retirees: 30 new retiree households by 1996, then growing at 5% per year. e Cruise ship visitors: 25,000 new visitors in 1995 (relative to 1994), rising to 100,000 new visitors by the year 2000, then growing at 4% per year. High Case The Haines High case starts with the MAP model “high” statewide projections and adds more aggressive local growth assumptions: e Kensington Mine workers: Double the Mid case (20, growing to 100). e Retirees: 50 new retiree households by 1996, then growing at 5% per year. e Cruise ship visitors: 25,000 new visitors in 1995 (relative to 1994), rising to 100,000 by 1997, then growing at 4% per year. Table 2 summarizes the growth rates in residential customers and support employment that result from these combinations of assumptions. Table 2: Haines Area Economic Growth Projections (average annual growth rates, 1993-2014) Low Mid High MAP model underlying growth: Households 0.8% 0.8% 2.0% Employment 0.6% 0.6% 2.0% (plus) Effect of additional specific factors: Households 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% Employment 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% (equals) Demographic projections for load forecast: Residential customers 1.4% 1.9% 3.3% Support employment 1.0% 1.4% 2.9% 12 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 2.3 Residential Use per Customer and Large Loads We expect that many of the new homes under construction in Haines will use far more than the current HL&P average of about 6,000 kWh per residential customer. Well- developed Southeast Alaska communities such as Ketchikan and Petersburg have average residential use of about 10,000 kWh per year, which is well above the Alaska state average of 8,000 kWh. However, these communities enjoy very low electric rates compared to Haines’ rates without Power Cost Equalization assistance. Since PCE does not apply to usage above about 8,400 kWh per year, people using more than 8,000 kWh would face the full price of about 16.6 cents for HL&P’s diesel power. This is about twice the price in Ketchikan. Furthermore, not all new houses will be extremely large. To capture the likely growth in residential use per customer due to these effects, we make two assumptions. First, we assume underlying growth in average use per customer of 0.0, 0.0, and 1.0 percent in the Low, Mid, and High scenarios, respectively. This growth primarily reflects per capita income and appliance efficiency effects. In addition, we assume that all new houses built beginning in 1994 have a base consumption rate of 8,000 kWh per year. (This 8,000 kWh amount also rises at 1.0 percent per year in the High case.) The net effect of these assumptions is that average use per customer grows at 0.2, 0.5, and 0.7 percent per year in the Low, Mid and High scenarios. There appear to be no HL&P loads which qualify for special treatment as discrete large loads. For example, the largest identified increase in load stems from a new supermarket. This type of activity is accounted for (over time) by the commercial forecasting equation based on employment and growth in use per employee. 2.4 Forecast Results The following pages show forecast results for the Haines Light & Power area. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 13 Figure 3: Haines Light & Power Forecast Summary Forecast Summary Graphs HL&P Area Forecast Net Generation EEE Historical = ——-—-High = Mid seceee Low Peak Demand 5.00 ~ ua 4.50 + eae 4.00 + We ie 3.50 + Lae GQ Historical 3.00 + = 250+ 2.00 + sien 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 —————— YS a _ oillbe= | teallibeo irc liratinriieeiitas (ir cniiaiiieiiie Sle sein SNE SL SE SRT Se Sa SS TES SS See Se See eal Rll es 8 5 5 Se ME Sete oD eel sie oATNR TE Se 1S UE MMH MTL TET Year Sales by Class, Mid Case Projected € losses = @ Commercial @ Residential | eiisiemis eas Sees SS in Se Se SS i SO A © tS a= a le a Year 14 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 S6/L 1/8 Speo7 DUja/z exse|y JseayINOS Jaddr), SL Low Case Energy Requirements and Peak Demand HL&P Area Forecast Residential Commercial Totals and Losses _ |Peak Demand Comm Street, Net Total Use / Support Use/ Misc Total Genera- Peak — Overall # of Cust Sales | Employ- Employee Sales Sales Sales Losses tion Demand __ Load Cust kWh MWh ment kWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MW Factor 705 5,857 4,129 544 10,528 5,727 263 10,119 995 11,114 2.07 0611] 727 5,914 4,297 566 10,528 5,963 267 10,526 1,041 11,567 2.20 0.600 748 5,968 4,465 578 10,528 6,089 274 10,828 1,071 11,899 2.26 0.600 756 5,986 4,524 579 10,528 6,095 276 10,895 1,078 11,972 2.28 0.600 763 6,004 4,583 586 10,528 6,173 280 11,035 1,091 12,127 2.31 0.600 771 6,022 4,643 591 10,528 6,225 283 11,150 1,103 12,253 2.33 0.600 779 6,040 4,703 600 10,528 6,316 286 11,306 1,118 12,424 2.36 0.600 785 6,053 4,751 603 10,528 6,349 289 11,389 1,126 12,516 2.38 0.600 794 6,074 4,826 605 10,528 6,373 291 11,490 1,136 12,626 2.40 0.600 805 6,097 4,907 611 10,528 6,429 295 11,631 1,150 12,781 2.43 0.600 817 6,122 5,002 617 10,528 6,492 299 11,793 1,166 12,959 2.46 0.600 828 6,143 5,085 619 10,528 6,517 302 11,903 1,177 13,080 2.49 0.600 838 6,164 5,168 624 10,528 6,568 305 12,041 1,191 13,232 2.52 0.600 850 6,187 §,259 630 10,528 6,632 309 12,200 1,207 13,406 2.55 0.600 863 6,210 5,357 635 10,528 6,683 313 12,353 1,222 13,575 2.58 0.600 874 6,230 5,443 638 10,528 6,715 316 12,475 1,234 13,708 2.61 0.600 885 6,250 5,530, 642 10,528 6,755, 319 12,604 1,247 13,851 2.63 0.600, 896 6,269 5,618 647 10,528 6,807 323 12,748 1,261 14,009 2.66 0.600 908 6,290 5,714 652 10,528 6,860 327 12,901 1,276 14,177 2.70 0.600 921 6,310 5,810 659 10,528 6,933 331 13,074 1,293 14,367 2.73 0.600 934 6,331 5,914 666 10,528 7,012 336 13,263 1,312 14,574 2.77 0.600 948 6,353 6,026 674 10,528 7,099 341 13,466 1,332 14,797 2.81 0.600 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 1.4% 0.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% }SB99104 BSED MO7] JAMO 9 YH! SeuleH :¢ BIqeL QL S6/L1/8 SPECT DUj99/3 eyseIy Jseayjnos Jeddn Mid Case Energy Requirements and Peak Demand HL&P Area Forecast Residential Commercial Totals and Losses Peak Demand Comm Street, Net Total Use/ Support Use/ Misc Total Genera- Peak — Overall # of Cust Sales | Employ- Employee Sales Sales Sales Losses tion Demand Load Year | Cust kWh MWh ment kWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MW Factor | 1993 | 705 5,857 4,129 544 10,528 5,727 263 10,119 995 11,114 2.07 0.611 1994 727 6,914 = 4,297 566 10,596 6,001 268} 10,566 1,045 11,611 2.21 0.600 1995 748 5,968 4,465 578 10,665 6,168 276 10,909 1,079 11,988 2.28 0.600 1996 775 6,032 4,676 586 10,734 6,286 285 11,248 1,112 12,360 2.35 0.600 1997 793 6,070 4,811 598 10,804 6,462 293 11,566 1,144 12,709 2.42 0.600 1998 810 6,107 4,946 608 10,874 6,612 301 11,859 1,173 13,032 2.48 0.600 1999 827 6,143 §,082 622 10,945 6,805 309 12,197 1,206 13,403 2.55 0.600 2000 843 6,174 5,207 630 11,016 6,940 316 12,462 1,233 13,694 2.60 0.600 2001 855 6,196 5,296 634 11,088 7,029 320 12,645 1,251 13,896 2.64 0.600 2002 867 6,218 5,394 641 11,160 7,154 326 12,874 1,273 14,147 2.69 0.600 2003 882 6,244 §,505 649 11,232 7,289 333 13,127 1,298 14,425 2.74 0.600 2004 895 6,266 5,606 653 11,305 7,385 338 13,328 1,318 14,647 2.78 0.600 2005 908 6,288 5,708 660 11,379 7,511 344 13,563 1,341 14,904 2.83 0.600 2006 922 6,311 5,818 668 11,453 7,654 350 13,823 1,367 15,190 2.89 0.600 2007 937 6,335 5,937 675 11,527 7,786 357 14,080 1,393 15,473 2.94 0.600 2008 951 6,357 6,045 681 11,602 7,900 363 14,307 1,415 15,723 2.99 0.600 2009 965 6,377 6,154 687 11,677 8,024 369 14,547 1,439 15,986 3.04 0.600 2010 979 6,398 6,266 695 11,753 8,166 375 14,807 1,464 16,271 3.09 0.600 2011 995 6,420 6,386 703 11,830 8,311 382 15,079 1,491 16,570 3.15 0.600 2012 1,010 6,441 6,508 712 11,907 8,481 390 15,379 1,521 16,900 3.21 0.600 2013 1,027 6,463 6,640 723 11,984 8,663 398 15,701 1,553 17,253 3.28 0.600 2014 1,045 6,486 6,780 734 12,062 8,856 407 16,043 1,587 17,629 3.35 0.600 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 1.9% 0.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% Ls = vy a1qeL }SB90J04 @SED PIN 192MOd 8 }4UHI7] souleH S6/L1/8 SPEC? DujDaIz eYSEIy ISEauyNOS Jeddj ZL High Case Energy Requirements and Peak Demand HL&P Area Forecast # of Cust 727 754 816 852 881 918 961 982 1,001 1,020 1,041 1,062 1,089 1,125 1,169 1,219 1,259 1,294 1,328 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 3.3% Residential Commercial Totals and Losses Peak Demand Comm Street, Net Total Use/ Support Use/ Misc Total Genera- Peak Overall Cust Sales | Employ- Employee Sales Sales Sales Losses tion Demand _ Load kWh MWh ment kWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MW Factor 4,129 544 10,528 5,727 263} 10,119 995 11,114 2.07 5,973 4,340 568 10,664 6,053 270 10,663 1,055 11,718 2.23 0.600 5,983 4,510 580 10,803 6,265 280 11,055 1,093 12,149 2.31 0.600 6,120 4,993 606 10,944 6,629 302 11,924 1,179 13,104 2.49 0.600 6,190 §,274 636 11,086 7,050 320 12,645 1,251 13,895 2.64 0.600 6,242 5,496 656 11,230 7,366 334 13,197 1,305 14,502 2.76 0.600 6,306 5,791 672 11,376 7,649 349 13,789 1,364 15,153 2.88 0.600 6,372 6,126 682 11,524 7,854 363 14,344 1,419 15,763 3.00 0.600 6,401 6,283 692 11,674 8,079 373 14,736 1,457 16,193 3.08 0.600 6,429 6,436 705 11,825 8,332 384 15,153 1,499 16,651 3.17 0.600 6,453 6,579 719 11,979 8,615 395 15,589 1,542 17,130 3.26 0.600 6,480 6,743 731 12,135 8,875 406 16,024 1,585 17,609 3.35 0.600 6,506 6,910 747 12,293 9,181 418 16,509 1,633 18,142 3.45 0.600 6,539 7,124 773 12,452 9,625 435 17,185 1,700 18,884 3.59 0.600 6,578 7,398 805 12,614 10,159 456 18,014 1,782 19,796 3.76 0.600 6,623 7,740 837 12,778 10,692 479 18,911 1,870 20,782 3.95 0.600 6,672 8,135 869 12,944 11,248 504 19,888 1,967 21,855 4.16 0.600 6,707 8,445 897 13,113 11,763 525 20,733 2,051 22,784 4.33 0.600 6,737 8,719 919 13,283 12,204 544 21,466 2,123 23,589 4.48 0.600 6,764 8,984 941 13,456 12,656 563 22,203 2,196 24,398 4.64 0.600 961 13,631 13,106 581 22,932 2,268 25,200: 4.79 0.600 983 13,808 13,568 600 23,686 2,343 26,028 4.95 co 0.7% 4.1% 2.9% 1.3% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% g e192) ysed0104 seg YBIH Jamo 2 }Y4HI7 seuleHy 3. Chilkat Valley Forecast 3.1 Background Discussion The upper Chilkat Valley area extends along the Haines Highway from mile 17 to the Canadian border. It includes some side “spurs” such as a line extension down Mosquito Lake Road. The economy of the area is currently tied almost completely to Haines. Most residential customers will either work there, shop there, or both. The area is newly served by electricity from THREA. Initial coverage of the service territory will be completed in the summer of 1995. At this time THREA expects to have about 90 residential and 3 or 4 commercial customers hooked up. This forecast draws heavily on a recent Power Requirements Study by THREA (Brock, 1994). 3.2 Summary of Scenario Assumptions All three scenarios contain a period of rapid growth in residential customers during the next several years as customers continue to hook up to the system. After this initial period (ending in about 1997), growth continues at a faster rate than for Haines through 2003. After about 2003, residential growth settles down to the corresponding rates in the Haines scenarios. On the commercial side, we have projected numbers of customers directly, since there are likely to be so few customers and no employment data is available for this small study area. Low Case After an initial hookup period, residential growth is 4 percent through 2003, and 0 percent thereafter. The commercial customer count grows to 9 by 1998 and stabilizes at that level. Residential use per customer grows at an average of 3 percent per year, reaching the levels found among HL&P customers by the end of the study period. Mid Case For the first ten years, the Mid case is taken directly from the THREA Power Requirements Study “most likely” scenario. This scenario provides a well-thought-out projection of the process of electrification which is resulting as service reaches a previously unserved territory. Residential customers grow rapidly during the first ten years, reaching a level of 194 by the year 2003. After that, the customer growth rate is reduced to 1.5 percent—the same level as residential customer growth in the HL&P Mid case. Residential use per customer grows at 3 percent per year throughout the study period. Small commercial customers grow from the present level of 3 to 5 by 1996 and stay constant until 2003. After this, the number grows at the HL&P Base case employment 18 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 growth rate of 1.3% per year. The general large commercial load follows THREA’s direct projections until 2003, after which it grows at 1.3 percent per year. High Case In the High case the initial hookup period is combined with 6 percent growth in residential customers, reflecting some new construction in the area. After the year 2003, residential growth continues at 3 percent consistent with the HL&P High case. Use per residential customer increases at 3.5 percent per year. The number of small commercial customers grows immediately at 3 percent per year consistent with the HL&P High case. The general large commercial load also begins growing immediately at 3 percent per year. Figure 4 summarizes the residential customer projections and Figure 5 the small commercial customer projections for Chilkat Valley. Chilkat Residential Customers | emmy Historical | |__ High — Mid Customers wo t a = 2 o b a = oO D D D ° S 3 ° 3S c = a a a S S S S Ss ° Ss = = = nN N N N N N nN Figure 4: Chilkat Valley Residential Customer Projections Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 19 Chilkat Small Commercial Customers ti 2 SEsEEEESramseennEeenenEEEEE z es Historical | S 8 cosh ° ie 3 * 1995 1997 1999 2001 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Figure 5: Chilkat Small Commercial Customer Projections 3.3 Large Loads The only specific large load identified is the U.S.-Canada Border Station complex (both the U.S. and Canadian sides) which THREA projects to have a combined energy requirement of 750 MWh per year. This load is included in all scenarios. 3.4 Chilkat Forecast Results The following pages show forecast results for the Chilkat Valley area. 20 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Figure 6: Chilkat Valley Forecast Summary Forecast Summary Graphs Upper Chilkat Valley Forecast Chilkat Net Generation MWh 2 re) 5 2 = 2 2 nt 2 - 2 a a a a 3 3 3 s 3 = = a a a a 3 S 3 8 3 3S Ss = = = = & a & N Sg a a Year 0.80 - 0.70 ~ 0.60 ~ 0.50 ~ 0.40 - MW 0.30 + 0.20 — 0.10 ~ 0.00 i 2 0 ~ ry = 2 2 5 2 = 2 a a a a 3 3 Ss 3 = = a a a a 3S S 3 3S 3S 3 3 = = sad = a aq aN a aq nN N Year Chilkat Sales by Class, Mid Case 3,000 - Projected 2,500 ~ 2,000 — s = 1,500 + = j 1,000 + 500 ° 2 8 & @ 5 2 28 » @ = ® $8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 § 8 = 2 2 2 8 & R&R R & & 8B SEE Historical | ———-High Mid (Gl Historical ——-—-High ‘Mid OLosses @Lg comm. small comm. @ Residential note: Lg comm. includes border stations Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 21 Table 6: Chilkat Valley Low Case Forecast Low Case Energy Requirements Upper Chilkat Valley Forecast Residential Commercial ruptible | Totals and Losses Use/ Net # of Cust Sales Use/Cust Sales Total Sales Losses Genera- Year | Cust kWh MWh | # of Cust kWh MWh {Sales MWh} MWh MWh tion MWh 1993 65 3,600 234 3 16,800 50| 0 284 68 352) 1994 65 3,600 234 4 16,800 67 48 349 22 371 1995 90 3,600 324 5 16,800 84 822 1,230 79 1,309 1996 136 3,600 490 5 16,800 84 1,024 1,598 102 1,700 1997 141 3,600 509) 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,708 109 1,817 1998 147 3,600 530 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,729 110 1,839 1999 153 3,600 551 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,750 112 1,861 2000 159 3,600 573 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,772 113 1,885 2001 165 3,600 596 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,795 115 1,909) 2002 172 3,600 620) 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,819 116 1,935) 2003 179 3,600 644 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,843 118 1,961 2004 181 3,600 652 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,851 118 1,969) 2005 183 3,600 660 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,859 119 1,977 2006 185 3,600 668 | 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,867 119 1,986) 2007 188 3,600 676 5 16,800 84 1,115, 1,875 120 1,994 2008 190 3,600 684 5 16,800 84 1,115, 1,883 120 2,003 2009 192 3,600 692 5 16,800 84 1,115, 1,891 121 2,012 2010 195 3,600 700 5 16,800 84 1,115) 1,899 121 2,021 2011 197 3,600 709 5 16,800 84 1,115) 1,908 122 2,030 2012 199 3,600 TAT 5 16,800 84 1,115) 1,916 122 2,039 2013 202 3,600 726 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,925 123 2,048 2014 204 3,600 735 5 16,800 84 1,115 1,934 123 2,057, 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 5.6% 0.0% 5.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 9.6% 2.9% 8.8% Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Table 6: Chilkat Valley Low Case Forecast (continued) Low Case Peak Demand Upper Chilkat Valley Forecast Peak Demand Res. & Coincid. Total Small Large Border Coinci- Peak Peak Peak Overall comm- Commercial Stations dent Demand Losses Demand Load Year |ercial MW MW MW Peak MW_ Month MW MW Factor 1993 0.08 0.529) 1994 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.07 12 0.00 0.07 0.600, 1995 0.08 0.01 0.14 0.23 12 0.01 0.25 0.600 1996 0.11 0.05 0.14 0.30 12 0.02 0.32 0.600 1997 0.11 0.07 0.14 0.32 12 0.02 0.35 0.600 1998 0.12 0.07 0.14 0.33 12 0.02 0.35 0.600 1999 0.12 0.07 0.14 0.33 12 0.02 0.35 0.600 2000 0.12 0.07 0.14 0.34 12 0.02 0.36 0.600 2001 0.13 0.07 0.14 0.34 12 0.02 0.36 0.600 2002 0.13 0.07 0.14 0.35 12 0.02 0.37 0.600 2003 0.14 0.07 0.14 0.35 12 0.02 0.37 0.600 2004 0.14 0.07 0.14 0.35 12 0.02 0.37 0.600 2005 0.14 0.07 0.14 0.35 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 2006 0.14 0.07 0.14 0.35 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 2007 0.14 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 2008 0.15 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 2009 0.15 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 2010 0.15 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 2011 0.15 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.39 0.600 2012 0.15 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.39 0.600 2013 0.15 0.07 0.14 0.37 12 0.02 0.39 0.600 2014 0.16 0.07 0.14 0.37 12 0.02 0.39 0.600 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 8.1% Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 23 Table 7: Chilkat Valley Mid Case Forecast Mid Case Energy Requirements Upper Chilkat Valley Forecast Lg Commé& Inter- Residential Commercial ruptible Totals and Losses Use/ Net # of Cust Sales Use/Cust Sales Total Sales Losses Genera- Year | Cust kWh MWh |#ofCust kWh MWh |Sales MWh} MWh MWh _ tion MWh 1993 65 3,600 234: 3 16,800 50 0 284 68 352 1994 65 3,708 241 4 16,909 68 48 357 23 379 1995 90 3,819 344 5 17,019 85 822) 1,251 80 1,331 1996 136 3,934 535 5 17,130 86 1,024 1,645 105 1,750 1997 143° 4,052 579 5 17,241 86 1,115 1,781 114 1,894 1998 151 4,173 630 5 17,353 87! 1,115 1,832 117 1,949 1999 158 4,299 679 5 17,466 87) 1,115 1,882 120 2,002 2000 167 4,428 739 5 17,579 88) 1,115 1,942 124 2,066 2001 175 4,560 798 5 17,694 88 1,115 2,002 128 2,129 2002 184 4,697 864 5 17,809 89) 1,115 2,068 132 2,200 2003 194 4,838 939 5 17,925 90 1,115) 2,143 137 2,280! 2004 197 4,983 981 5 18,041 91 1,120 2,192 140 2,332 2005 200 5,133 1,026 5 18,158 93) 1,125 2,243 143 2,386 2006 203. «5,287. =: 1,072 5 18,276 94) 1,129 2,296 147 2,443 2007 206 5,445 1,121 5 18,395 96 1,134 2,352 150 2,502 2008 209 5,609 1,172 5 18,515 98 1,139 2,409 154 2,563 2009 212 5,777 1,225 5 18,635 99) 1,144) 2,469 158 2,627 2010 215 5,950 1,281 5 18,756 101 1,150 2,532 162 2,694 2011 219 6,129 1,339 5 18,878 103 1,155| 2,597 166 2,763 2012 222 «6,313 1,400 6 19,001 105 1,160 2,665 170 2,835 2013 225 6,502 1,464 6 19,124 107 1,165 2,736 175 2,911 2014 229 6,697 1,530 6 19,249 109) 1,171 2,810 179 2,989 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 6.2% 3.0% 9.4% 3.1% 0.6% 3.7% 11.5% 4.7% 10.7% 24 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Table 7: Chilkat Valley Mid Case Forecast (continued) Mid Case Peak Demand Upper Chilkat Valley Forecast Peak Demand Res. & Coincid. Total Small Border Coinci- Peak Peak Peak Overall comm- Commercial Stations dent Demand Losses Demand Load Year | ercial MW MW Peak MW Month MW MW Factor 1993 0.08 0.529 1994 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.07 12 0.00 0.07 0.600 1995 0.08 0.01 0.14 0.24 12 0.02 0.25 0.600 1996 0.12 0.05 0.14 0.31 12 0.02 0.33 0.600 1997 0.13 0.07 0.14 0.34 12 0.02 0.36 0.600 1998 0.14 0.07 0.14 0.35 12 0.02 0.37 0.600 1999 0.15 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 2000 0.16 0.07 0.14 0.37 12 0.02 0.39 0.600 2001 0.17 0.07 0.14 0.38 12 0.02 0.40 0.600 2002 0.18 0.07 0.14 0.39 12 0.03 0.42 0.600 2003 0.20 0.07 0.14 0.41 12 0.03 0.43 0.600 2004 0.20 0.07 0.14 0.42 12 0.03 0.44 0.600 2005 0.21 0.07 0.14 0.43 12 0.03 0.45 0.600 2006 0.22 0.07 0.14 0.44 12 0.03 0.46 0.600 2007 0.23 0.07 0.14 0.45 12 0.03 0.48 0.600, 2008 0.24 0.07 0.14 0.46 12 0.03 0.49 0.600, 2009 0.25 0.07 0.14 0.47 12 0.03 0.50 0.600 2010 0.26 0.08 0.14 0.48 12 0.03 0.51 0.600 2011 0.27 0.08 0.14 0.49 12 0.03 0.53 0.600 2012 0.29 0.08 0.14 0.51 12 0.03 0.54 0.600 2013 0.30 0.08 0.14 0.52 12 0.03 0.55 0.600 2014 0.31 0.08 0.14 0.53 12 0.03 0.57 0.600 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 10.1% Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 25 Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Table 8: Chilkat Valley High Case Forecast High Case Energy Requirements Upper Chilkat Valley Forecast Lg Commé& Inter- Residential Commercial ruptible Totals and Losses Use/ Net # of Cust Sales Use/Cust Sales Total Sales Losses Genera- Cust kWh MWh_ | #of Cust kWh MWh /|Sales MWh} MWh MWh _ tion MWh 3 50| 284 68 352| 65 3,726 242) 4 17,018 358 23 381 90 3,856 347 5 17,240 386 822 1,255 80 1,335 136 © -3,991 543 5 17,464 87' 1,024 1,654 106 1,760 144 4,131 596 5 17,691 91 1,115 1,802 115 1,917 153 4,276 653 5 17,921 95 1,126 1,875 120 1,994 162 4,425 T17 5 18,154 99 1,137 1,954 125 2,078 172 4,580 786 6 18,390 104 1,149) 2,039 130 2,169 182 4,741 863 6 18,629 109 1,161 2,132 136 2,268 193 4,906 947 6 = 18,871 113 1,173) 2,233 143 2,376 204 «5,078 ~— 1,038 6 19,116 118 1,186 2,343 150 2,492 211 5,256 1,107, 6 19,365 124 1,199) 2,430 155 2,585 217 5,440 1,180 7 19,617 129 1,212 2,522 161 2,683 223° «5,630 =—:1,258 7 ~~ 19,872 135 1,226 2,619 167 2,786, 230 «5,827 1,341 7 20,130 141 1,241 2,723 174 2,896 237 «6,031 1,430 7 20,392 147 1,255 2,832 181 3,013 244 «6,242 1,524 7 20,657 154 1,270 2,948 188 3,136) 252. «6,461 = 1,625) 8 20,925 160 1,286 3,071 196 3,267 259 6,687 = 1,732 8 = 21,197 168 1,302 3,202 204 3,406 267 6,921 1,847 8 = 21,473 175: 1,319 3,340 213 3,553 275 7,163 1,969 8 = 21,752 183 1,336 3,487 223 3,710 283 7,414 ~—-2,099 9 22,035 191 1,353 3.643 233 3,875] 1993 - 2014 Annual Aver 7.3% 3.5% 11.0% 5.2% 1.3% 6.5% 12.9% 6.0% 12.1% 26 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Table 8: Chilkat Valley High Case Forecast (continued) High Case Peak Demand Upper Chilkat Valley Forecast — | Peak Demand Res. & Coincid. Total Small Border Coinci- Peak Peak Peak Overall comm- Commercial Stations dent Demand Losses Demand Load Year |ercial MW MW MW PeakMW_ Month MW MW Factor 1993 0.08 0.529 1994 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.07 12 0.00 0.07 0.600] 1995 0.08 0.01 0.14 0.24 12 0.02 0.25 0.600 1996 0.12 0.05 0.14 0.31 12 0.02 0.33 0.600 1997 0.13 0.07 0.14 0.34 12 0.02 0.36 0.600 1998 0.14 0.07 0.14 0.36 12 0.02 0.38 0.600 1999 0.16 0.07 0.14 0.37 12 0.02 0.40 0.600 2000 0.17 0.08 0.14 0.39 12 0.02 0.41 0.600 2001 0.18 0.08 0.14 0.41 12 0.03 0.43 0.600 2002 0.20 0.08 0.14 0.42 12 0.03 0.45 0.600 2003 0.22 0.08 0.14 0.45 12 0.03 0.47 0.600 2004 0.23 0.09 0.14 0.46 12 0.03 0.49 0.600 2005 0.25 0.09 0.14 0.48 12 0.03 0.51 0.600 2006 0.26 0.09 0.14 0.50 12 0.03 0.53 0.600 2007 0.28 0.09 0.14 0.52 12 0.03 0.55 0.600 2008 0.30 0.10 0.14 0.54 12 0.03 0.57 0.600 2009 0.32 0.10 0.14 0.56 12 0.04 0.60 0.600! 2010 0.34 0.10 0.14 0.58 12 0.04 0.62 0.600 2011 0.36 0.10 0.14 0.61 12 0.04 0.65 0.600 2012 0.38 0.11 0.14 0.64 12 0.04 0.68 0.600 2013 0.41 0.11 0.14 0.66 12 0.04 0.71 0.600 2014 0.44 0.11 0.14 0.69 12 0.04 0.74 0.600} d 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 11.4% Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 27 3.5 Estimated Load of Klukwan Village The Village of Klukwan provides much of its electrical service without metering. The power plant operator reports’ that average power output ranges from as low as 25 kW in the summer to as high as 200 kW on an average cold winter day. A typical summer load is 50 kW and a typical winter load is 175 kW. Based on these facts, we constructed a likely load profile for Klukwan and used it to compute annual energy requirements, as shown in Table 9 Table 9: Estimated Klukwan Energy Requirements average monthly kW MWh jan 200 146 feb 175 128 march 150 110 april 100 13 may 50 37 june 50 37 july 35 26 aug 50 37 sept 50 ar oct 100 73 nov 150 110 dec 175 128 Total 939 Annual [instantaneous] peak load for Klukwan is estimated to be 250 kW, based on the idea that 200 kW is the average output during a cold month. The population of Klukwan Village as measured by the U.S. Census has been quite stable. The census population actually declined from 135 to 129 between 1980 and 1990. Countering this fact is the generally high fertility of Alaska Natives and a resurgence in cultural identification which could cause more young people to remain in the village. Considering these factors we assume annual energy growth rates of 0.0, 1.0, and 2.0 percent in order to make the projections shown in Table 10. These projections have been used in calculating the combined load growth for the Haines/Chilkat/Klukwan area that is reported in the executive summary of this report. Henry, Klukwan power plant operator, 5/23/95. 28 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Table 10 Klukwan Load Projections Energy Requirements (MWh) Peak Load (MW) Low Mid High Low Mid High Assumed annual growth: 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1993 939 939 939 0.250 0.250 0.250 1994 939 948 957 0.250 0.253 0.255 1995 939 958 977 0.250 0.255 0.260 1996 939 967 996 0.250 0.258 0.265 1997 939 977 1,016 0.250 0.260 0.271 1998 939 987 1,036 0.250 0.263 0.276 1999 939 996 1,057 0.250 0.265 0.282 2000 939 1,006 1,078 0.250 0.268 0.287 2001 939 1,016 1,100 0.250 0.271 0.293 2002 939 1,027 ys 0.250 0.273 0.299 2003 939 1,037 1,144 0.250 0.276 0.305 2004 939 1,047 1,167 0.250 0.279 0.311 2005 939 1,058 1,190 0.250 0.282 0.317 2006 939 1,068 1,214 0.250 0.285 0.323 2007 939 1,079 1,239 0.250 0.287 0.330 2008 939 1,090 1,263 0.250 0.290 0.336 2009 939 1,101 1,289 0.250 0.293 0.343 2010 939 1,112 1,314 0.250 0.296 0.350 2011 939 1,123 1,341 0.250 0.299 0.357 2012 939 1,134 1,367 0.250 0.302 0.364 2013 939 1,145 1,395 0.250 0.305 0.371 2014 939 1,157 1,423 0.250 0.308 0.379 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 4. Kake Area Forecast 4.1 The Kake Economy Kake is a village of about 700 people located on the northwestern tip of Kupreanof Island. During the 1980s the economy was largely based on a stable fishing fleet of about 55 boats, the local cold storage plant, and large-scale logging of nearby ANCSA lands owned by Kake Tribal Corporation. (Marshall, 1992) Only limited employment data are available for the Kake census sub-sub-area. These are shown in Table 11, and they appear to reflect a slight decline in logging employment at Kake Tribal Logging. Table 11: Kake Historical Employment 1992 1993 1994 (1) Fed Govt 2 2 2 State Govt 1 2. 2 Local Govt 74 79 1) Private Wage & Salary 206 178 175 Total 283 261 254 Note (1): Based on first 3 quarters of 1994 Source: Alaska Department of Labor Special Tabulations By the early 1990s Kake leaders realized that timber harvesting would soon be declining and they developed ambitious plans to rejuvenate the value-added components of the fishing business. These efforts recently culminated in the re-opening of the Gunnock Creek Hatchery and the start-up of a new Salmon Ham production plant at Kake Fisheries. In addition, the Organized Village of Kake is actively planning to rejuvenate a canning line from the circa-1930s cannery facilities and lease it to Kake Fisheries within the next two years.® 4.2 Historical Power Consumption Growth in residential and commercial consumption has been fairly steady during the past decade, as shown in Table 12. The data indicate that residential and commercial use actually peaked in 1991 and have been flat since then. The addition of the Kake Fisheries cold storage load on an interruptible basis beginning in 1993 boosted total sales to a new high. ® Mike Quinn, Kake Tribal Corp., and Larry Cabronero, Kake Fisheries, personal communication, April 14 and April 28. 1995. 30 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Table 12: Kake Historical Usage Data Residential Commercial | Large annual & Community| (Inter- # use per tuptible) | Street Total Total customers customer sales sales sales Lights Use Losses | Req'ts kWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh_ | MWh | MWh 201 4,767 958 829 0 86 1,874 246 2,120 208 4,884 1,016 898 0 87 2,001 262 2,263 215 5,212 1,121 1,127 0 88 2,335 306 2,642 206 5,189 1,069 1,076 0 89 2,234 291 2,524 199 5,636 1,122 1,078 0 90 2,289 294 2,584 192 6,489 1,246 1,232 0 98 2,576 354 2,930 200 6,519 1,304 1,342 0 94 2,739 396 3,135 236 5,658 1,335 1,429 0 98 2,862 163 3,026 233 6,081 1,417 1,433 0 83 2,933 172 3,105 231 5,949 1,374 1,391 0 87 2,852 151 3,003 238 5,861 1,395 1,426 852 86 3,759 190 3,949 Average growth: 1.7% 2.1% 3.8% 5.6% 0.0% 7.2% -2.6% 6.4% Measured | Adjusted Total Peak Peak Load Req'ts Load Load Factor MWh MW MW 2,120 0.535 0.514 0.47 2,263 0.560 0.539 0.48 note: 2,642 0.720 0.692 0.44 adjusted peak load removes the peak 2,524 0.600 0.581 0.50 load associated with diesel station 2,584 0.570 0.558 0.53 service 2,930 0.630 0.616 0.54 3,135 0.700 0.685 0.52 3,026 0.630 0.617 0.56 3,105 0.692 0.676 0.52 3,003 0.625 0.607 0.56 3,949 1.064 1.035 0.44 Average growth: 1% Figure 7 shows the magnitude and highly seasonal nature of existing fish processing operations compared to the rest of the community load. Although Kake fisheries is currently purchasing on an interruptible basis, their consumption and peak load is obviously important for power supply planning. For this reason we make no further distinction between the interruptible and the firm nature of the loads. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 31 Kake 1994 Monthly Electricity Use 600 _ 500 | 400 co Kake Fish| o City 300 | MWh per Month 200 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Figure 7: Seasonal Pattern of Recent Kake Load 4.3 Kake Economic Growth Scenarios Future electricity consumption in Kake will depend most heavily on the success of the expanding fish processing operations. The direct loads from these operations often equal the load of the entire community, and they are amplified by the associated employment and residence effects. Our three growth scenarios attempt to capture the possible variability in these operations, as well as underlying economic growth projections from the MAP model projections for the entire Wrangell-Petersburg Census area, of which Kake is a part. Because the large loads are so important, they are discussed in an integrated fashion with the other growth assumptions. It is important to remember that many of the jobs from these operations will go to existing residents, partly as a replacement for lost logging jobs. Therefore the net effect on residential customers is less than the gross gain in employment. Low Case In the Low case, Kake Fisheries existing cold storage use increases immediately to 1,333 MWh (close to 1994 actuals), reflecting normal plant operations (1993 had some significant down time). There is no canning line addition. The salmon ham 32 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 processing facility remains at a minimal usage level of about 219 MWh per year, reflecting weakness in the demand for this new product. At this low level of operations, the plant brings 10 additional employees to Kake who become residential customers and support an additional 3 support sector employees. Underlying this fish processing scenario, the MAP model projections for the Wrangell- Petersburg census area show flat households and declining employment. However, we have added 20 new residential customers to Kake reflecting the assured construction of 20 new HUD homes in the near future’. Mid Case The Mid case is built around full-scale operation of the salmon ham facility, consuming about 400 kW at a projected load factor of .25 (similar to existing cold storage). This expansion brings with it an assumed 25 new residential households to Kake, who in turn support 8 additional commercial sector support employees. Underlying this expansion, the MAP model projections show households growing at 0.8 percent and employment growing at 0.4 percent. In addition to this growth we assume 40 new HUD homes are built within the next 4 years. High Case In the High case the salmon ham facility adds a second shift beginning in the year 2000. This doubles energy requirements but has no effect on peak load. In addition the canning line addition also occurs, adding an additional 414 MWh of load to the Kake Fisheries processing load, with similar seasonality. These expansions add an additional 40 households relative to the Mid case, with an associated 13 support sector workers. Underlying this expansion is household growth of 1.6 percent per year and employment growth of 1.3 percent per year. The same 40 HUD homes are built as in the Mid case. summarize the assumed range of residential customer and support employment growth. Variation in the large fish processing loads is shown on the forecast summary graphs. ° Honorable Lonnie Anderson, Mayor of Kake, personal communication, 4/14/95 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 33 Kake Residential Customers 450 _ 400 350 1 300 1 £250 | E & 200 | $ 6 150 | 100 ) 50 | 0 oO wo Ld o = oO wo L a = oO wo Ld a — ao o ao ao ao Qa a Q Q Q So So So So So = = ro) a a oa ao Qo oO a a So °o o So So o oOo 2@ee2e2222228 8888828 Year Figure 8: Projected Kake Residential Customers Kake Support Employment 400 — 350 300 =e 250. oe 5 200. g —& 150 ~ Ww 100 a 50 | OL oO wo Ld Qo = oO wo y a = oO wo & a - oO o ao o oO Qa Qa Qa QD Q So o =} o oc = = a a oa a ao a a a a So So So o fo Oo So eer ere ere ee Ke KT KE NON NONONOON ON Year Figure 9: Projected Kake Support Employment 4.4 Kake Forecast Results The following three pages show forecast results for Kake. 34 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Figure 10: Kake Forecast Summary Forecast Summary Graphs Kake Area Forecast Kake Net Generation 10,000 ~ 9,000 + 8,000 + 7,000 + Oe 6,000 + GS Historical | « Z 5.000 + ——=—-High 4,000 + =“ 3,000 + ee 2,000 1,000 ° cut oN KR Or aHnneerawnraea~»” 28585838582 588S8 85:2 838288888388828328g:88:<8 858 Se fies Pe | ett mie |p| | eet |e ese Ua | ie | is |e | Year 2.50 ~ 2.00 + 1.50 + EEE Historical | 2 Oe 1.00 + | Mid i ul 0.00 oO RFR Oromo nreraennaerea 838358358825 88888 8:2 8838328832838 82828:83283888 85 | |e ee || eel | eee | [hes | || el | es || || Heat ens | Jae | ad | Ne Year Kake Sales by Class, Mid Case 7,000 ~ ] Historical Projected [CLosses | @ Fish Proc. | @ Commercial | MWh ey) es) Te Teal ae Mes SIV) Us ilies ets eis 3353832282828 288 5 2 8333383338338 8 388 2 Year Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 ao Table 13: Kake Low Case Forecast Low Case Energy Requirements Kake Area Forecast Commercial & Residential Community Totals and Losses Comm Support Use/ Net Employ- Employee Sales Sales jTotal Sales Losses Genera- ment kWh MWh MWh _ tion MWh 261 5,463 1,426 3,759 190 3,949) 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 0.4% . 0.0% 0.4% -0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 2.9% -0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 36 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Table 13: Kake Low Case Forecast (continued) Low Case Peak Demand Kake Area Forecast Peak Demand Ham Total City Kake 2nd Coinci- Peak Peak Overall Demand Fisheries Salmon Shift dent Losses Demand Load Year MW MW HamMW MW PeakMW MW MW Factor 1993 1.04 0.435 1994 0.67 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.05 1.01 0.491 1995 0.68 0.57 0.10 0.00 1.07 0.06 1.12 0.471 1996 0.69 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.13 0.06 1.19 0.460 1997 0.70 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.14 0.06 1.20 0.462 1998 0.69 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.14 0.06 1.20 0.461 1999 0.69 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.13 0.06 1.19 0.461 2000 0.69 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.13 0.06 1.19 0.460, 2001 0.68 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.13 0.06 1.19 0.458 2002 0.68 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.13 0.06 1.18 0.457 2003 0.67 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.18 0.457 2004 0.67 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.18 0.456 2005 0.67 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.18 0.456 2006 0.67 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.18 0.455 2007 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.18 0.455 2008 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.18 0.454 2009 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.17 0.454 2010 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.17 0.454 2011 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.17 0.454 2012 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.42 0.06 1.17 0.454 2013 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.17 0.454 2014 0.66 0.63 0.10 0.00 1.12 0.06 1.17 0.454 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 0.6% Note: 1) 1994 peak demand figure should be ignored -- reflects anomolies in 1994 capacity utilization by Kake Fisheries. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 37 Table 14: Kake Mid Case Forecast Mid Case Energy Requirements Kake Area Forecast Commercial & Large Residential Community Loads Totals and Losses Comm Street, Use/ Support Use/ Misc Net #of Cust Sales | Employ- Employee Sales Sales |Total Sales Losses Genera- Year Cust kWh MWh ment kWh MWh_ {Sales MWh| MWh MWh MWh tion MWh 1993 238 5,861 1,395) 261 5,463 1,426 3,759 190 1994 238 5,861 1,395 264 5,499 1,454 1,202 85 4,137 218 4,354 1995 266 5,861 1,559) 275 5,534 1,522) 1,421 92 4,594 242 4,835 1996 278 5,861 1,631 277 5,570 1,546) 2,210 95 5,482 289 5,770) 1997 290 5,861 1,702 281 5,607 1,577 2,210 98: 4,607 242 4,850 1998 301 5,861 1,767 281 5,643 1,588. 2,210 101 4,593 242 4,835, 1999 313 5,861 1,833 283 5,680 1,607) 2,210 103 4,577 241 4,818 2000 315 5,861 1,844 283 5,717 1,616, 2,210 104 4,558 240 4,798 2001 316 5,861 1,855) 283 5,754 1,626 2,210 104 4,532 239 4,771 2002 319 5,861 1,867, 284 5,791 1,643, 2,210 105 4,511 237 4,749 2003 321 5,861 1,882) 285 §,829 1,660 2,210 106: 4,499 237 4,736) 2004 323 5,861 1,894, 284 5,867 1,668 2,210) 107 4,490 236 4,726 2005 325 5,861 1,905, 285 5,905 1,682 2,210 108 4,480 236 4,716 2006 327 5,861 1,918 286 5,943 1,700 2,210 109 4,470 235 4,705 2007 330 5,861 1,932, 287 5,982 1,714 2,210 109: 4,459 235 4,694 2008 332 5,861 1,944 286 6,021 1,725, 2,210 110 4,450 234 4,684 2009 334 5,861 1,956, 287 6,060 1,737, 2,210 111 4,444 234 4,678 2010 336 5,861 1,967) 287 6,099 1,750 2,210 111 4,438 234 4,672 2011 338 5,861 1,979, 288 6,139 1,767 2,210 112 4,435 233 4,669 2012 340 5,861 1,992) 289 6,179 1,786 2,210 113 4,436 233 4,669 2013 342 5,861 2,006 291 6,219 1,807 2,210 114 4,436 233 4,670 2014 345 5,861 2,020) 6,259 1,832 2,210 116 4,442 234 4,676 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% 46% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 38 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Table 14: Kake Mid Case Forecast (continued) Mid Case Peak Demand Kake Area Forecast Peak Demand Ham Total City Kake 2nd = Coinci- = Peak Peak Overall Demand Fisheries Salmon Shift dent Losses Demand Load Year MW MW Ham MW MW PeakMW MW MW Factor 1993 1.04 0.435 1994 0.67 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.05 1.01 0.492, 1995 0.72 0.57 0.10 0.00 1.09 0.06 1.15 0.480, 1996 0.75 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.47 0.08 1.54 0.426 1997 0.77 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.48 0.08 1.20 0.462 1998 0.79 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.49 0.08 1.20 0.461 1999 0.81 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.50 0.08 1.19 0.461 2000 0.81 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.51 0.08 1.19 0.460 2001 0.82 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.51 0.08 1.19 0.458 2002 0.82 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.51 0.08 1.18 0.457 2003 0.83 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.52 0.08 1.18 0.457 2004 0.84 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.52 0.08 1.18 0.456 2005 0.84 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.52 0.08 1.18 0.456 2006 0.85 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.53 0.08 1.18 0.455 2007 0.86 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.53 0.08 1.18 0.455 2008 0.86 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.53 0.08 1.18 0.454 2009 0.87 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.54 0.08 nena, 0.454 2010 0.87 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.54 0.08 1.17 0.454 2011 0.88 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.54 0.08 7 0.454 2012 0.89 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.55 0.08 vain 0.454 2013 0.66 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.12 0.06 Az, 0.454 2014 0.66 0.63 0.40 0.00 1.12 0.06 aot 0.454 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 0.6% Note: 1) 1994 peak demand figure should be ignored -- reflects anomolies in 1994 capacity utilization by Kake Fisheries. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 39 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Table 15: Kake High Case Forecast High Case Energy Requirements Kake Area Forecast Commercial & Community Comm Residential Use/ Support Use/ Misc Net # of Cust Sales | Employ- Employee Sales Sales |Total Sales Losses Genera- Cust kWh ment kWh MWh MWh _ tion MWh 305261 5.463 1.426] 852] 86] 3.759190 3.949 238 5,920 1,409) 264 86 266 5,979 1,589 275 278 6,039 1,676 279 305 6,099 1,863 291 6,186 326 6,512 318 6,160 1,957, 294 6,304 332 6,636 331 6,222 2,058 296 6,421 338 6,759 334 6,284 2,100 294 7,335 386 7,721 362 6,347 2,299 303 7,593 400 7,992) 365 6,410 2,338 305 7,645 402 8,047 367 6,475 2,376 307 7,697 405 8,102 370 6,539 2,419) 308 7,750 408 8,158 373 6,605 2,462) 310 7,807 411 8,218 377 6,671 2,514 316 7,896 416 8,312 383 6,737 2,582) 324 8,015 422 8,436 392 6,805 2,668 | 332 8,153 429 8,583 403 6,873 2,767 342 8,313 438 8,750 410 6,942 2,843) 348 8,432 444 8,876 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates 2.9% 1.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.1% 1.7% Totals and Losses Street, 4.1% 4.3% 4.2%| 40 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Table 15: Kake High Case Forecast (continued) High Case Peak Demand Kake Area Forecast Peak Demand Ham Total City Kake 2nd Coinci- Peak Peak Overall Demand Fisheries Salmon Shift dent Losses Demand Load MW MW Ham MW MW PeakMW MW MW Factor 1993 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates Note: 1) 1994 peak demand figure should be ignored -- reflects anomolies in 1994 capacity utilization by Kake Fisheries. Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 41 References Alaska Department of Labor, various years. Employment and Earnings Summary Report. Juneau: Research and Analysis Section. Alaska Department of Labor, 1992. Population Overview 1991 Estimates. Juneau: Research and Analysis Section. Alaska Department of Labor, various years. Special Tabulations of Employment and Earnings for Kake Census sub-sub-area.. Anchorage: Research and Analysis Section. Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy, various years. Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Brock, William, 1994. Power Requirements Study for Tlingit-Haida Regional Electrical Authority. Juneau: the Authority, June. Cheshire, C.L. et al, 1991. Southeast Alaska Economic Database. Ketchikan: University of Alaska Southeast. Prepared for Southeast Conference. Colt, Steve, 1989. Forecast of Electricity Demand in the Alaska Railbelt Region: 1988- 2010. Anchorage: Institute of Social & Economic Research Colt, Steve, 1993 “Tourism,” Chapter 12 in Economic and Social Impacts of the Proposed Copper River Highway. Anchorage: Institute of Social & Economic Research Goldsmith, Scott, 1995. Marginal Oil Field Development: The Economic Impact. Anchorage: Institute of Social & Economic Research Goldsmith, Scott, 1994. Economic Projections: Alaska and the Southern Railbelt. Anchorage: Institute of Social & Economic Research. Marshall, David, 1992. Kake Economic Development Project: Private Sector Employment; Jobs Planning Manual. Juneau: Marshall & Associates. Morphet, Tom, 1995. “Haines: A Backwoods Boomtown,” Alaska Business Monthly, February, pp. 58-62 U.S. Forest Service, 1992. Kensington Gold Mine Final Environmental Impact Statement. Juneau: U.S. Forest Service. 42 Upper Southeast Alaska Electric Loads 8/11/95 Appendix A: Compilation of Most Recent Available Existing Load Forecasts for Angoon Hoonah Juneau Sitka Tenakee Springs These forecasts and projections were prepared by others. They are summarized and excerpted here with some brief comments. We have not attempted to assess their validity. Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-1 Angoon Date: June 1994 Source: THREA Power Requirements Study 1994-2003 prepared by William Brock, Chief Financial Officer Methodology A simple spreadsheet model calculates sales for each customer class as # of customers times use per customer. For both types of variables recent historical trends and professional judgment are used to determine future trends. Results: Energy requirements grow at 0.4 percent per year from 1993-2003. Peak load grows at 0.5 percent per year. Growth stems mostly from assumed increases in use per commercial customer and number of residential customers. Only one forecast is presented. Comments: Methodology is transparent and similar to that used in this report. Assumptions about growth in use per commercial customer are somewhat ad hoc but this is unavoidable given the small size of the community. A summary and excerpts follow. The excerpts also contain references to Hoonah. Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-2 Angoon Projected Electric Energy Requirements: 1994 - 2003 Prepared June 1994 by THREA Totals and Losses Peak Load Energy Public Facilities Residential Small Commercial Com- Use / Total System pany Require-| Peak # of Cust Sales | #of Use/Cust Sales #of Use/Cust Sales Use Losses Use ments | Load _ Load Cust kWh MWh | Cust kWh MWh MWh | Cust kWh MWh Mwh MWh MWh MWh MW Factor 1,828 9 30 1,704 228 12 1,944 161 14,959 374 7 14,471 101 15,280 107 actual 6,605 actual 162 5,640 914 26 14,370 374 7 actual! 162 6,210 1,006] 25 14,257 356 6 15,045 90 1,776 92 8 1,876 actual nt62_ 6,173, 1,000 | 24 15,068. 362) 272] 727,682,194] 55] 1,882 85.13. 1,980 4993] 638 | Hea ei78_.000) 124 /see_ [ise ee 162 5,901 956] 25 14,965 374 7 17,080 120 1,776 106 1 1,893 165 5,901 974} 25 15,215 380 7 17,080 120 1,800 107 11 1,918 182 5,901 1,074] 25 15,464 387 7 17,080 120 1,907 114 11 2,031 182 5,901 1,074] 25 15,714 393 7 17,080 120 1,913 114 11 2,037 182 5,901 1,074] 25 15,964 399 7 17,080 120 1,919 114 11 2,044 182 5,901 1,074] 25 16,214 405 7 17,080 120 1,925 115 11 2,051 182 5,901 1,074] 25 16,464 412 7 17,080 120 1,932 115 11 2,057 182 5,901 1,074 25 16,713 418 7 17,080 120 1,938 115 11 182 5,901 1,074} 25 16,963 424 7 17,080 120 1,944 116 11 1993-2003 average annual growth rates: 0.0% 1.2% -04% 0.7% 04% 1.2% 16% 0.0% 0.0% -4.7% -4.7% 0.0% 0.3% 3.1% -17% 04% 0.5% -0.1% ISER COMPILE.XLS printed 8/4/95 3:04 AM Angoon Forecast: Excerpts Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-4 J 1 tlingit & haida REGional electrical authority PO. Box 210149 * Auke Bay, Alaska 99821 © (907) 789-3196 (AK-28) POWER REQUIREMENTS STUDY 1994 - 2003 PREPARED BY: WILLIAM G. BROCK CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER JUNE 13, 1994 Because present uses of energy are primarily basic in nature and do not readily lend themselves to substitution, there is no significant potential for conservation beyond that already practiced for economic reasons. State Subsidy The State of Alaska is a major contributor to the residential and small commercial consumers' electric utility bill where diesel engines are generation prime movers. Through legislative action, the State has established a Power Cost Equalization program, through which it has attempted to equalize the electric utility cost to these classes of consumers in tural areas with those in Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau. The program is administered by the Division of Energy within the Department of Community and Regional Affairs, with technical support from the Alaska Public Utilities Commission. Payments are made directly to the utility company. Funding appropriated in 1993 is intended to assure continuation of Power Cost Equalization at least through 1998. Its continuation beyond that period is subject to future legislative action. EXISTING FACILITIES REVIEW Angoon Central station electricity in Angoon is generated by diesel-electric generators, one 300, one 400 and one 560 kilowatt unit, owned and operated by the Electrical Authority. The 300 kilowatt unit is a Caterpillar model 353, the 400 kilowatt unit is a Caterpillar model 379 and the 560 kilowatt unit is a Caterpillar model 3508. The powerhouse is a modern, single-tier steel unit. The diesel fuel tank farm has a storage capacity of 65,200 gallons and is circumscribed by a spill containment dike and a security fence. The substation consists of three platform mounted single phase transformers with a total capacity of 750 kVA. The powerhouse and adjacent substation is circumscribed by a security fence except at the front entrance to the powerhouse and where access is restricted by another blind building structure. All facilities have controlled access. Electricity is distributed over 7,200/12,470 volt grounded neutral overhead lines feeding directly from the power plant substation. There are no transmission class lines within Angoon or interconnecting Angoon with other power supplies or loads. Hoonah All central station electricity in Hoonah is generated by small diesel-electric units owned and operated by the Electrical Authority. The total generating capacity of 2,075 kilowatts is comprised of one 855 kilowatt, one 560 kilowatt and one 610 kilowatt unit. The 855 kilowatt unit is a modern 1200 RPM Caterpillar model 3512, the 560 kilowatt unit is a 1200 RPM Caterpillar model 3508, and the 610 kilowatt unit is an older Caterpillar model 398. The powerhouse is a modern, single-tier steel structure. The diesel fuel tank farm has a storage capacity of 35,018 gallons and is circumscribed by a spill containment dike and security fence. The substation consists of three platform mounted single phase transformers with a total capacity of 1,500 kVA and one padmounted 1500 kVA substation transformer. The powerhouse and adjacent substation is circumscribed by a security fence except at the front entrance to the powerhouse. All facilities have controlled access. Electricity is distributed directly from the power plant substation over 7,200/12,470 volt grounded neutral overhead distribution lines. There are no other power supplies or loads. Kake All electricity in the area for use by the general public is generated by smail diesel-electric units owned and operated by the Electrical Authority. The generating facility has a total continuous duty output capacity rating of 2,230 kilowatts and consists of three units: one Caterpillar model 398 rated at 500 kilowatts, one high efficiency 1200 RPM Caterpillar model 3512 rated at 630 kilowatts and one high efficiency 1800 RPM Caterpillar model 3512 rated at 1100 kilowatts. The cold storage plant has its own diesel-electric generators, but purchases its energy requirements on an interruptible basis from the Electrical Authority's system. Electricity is distributed from the powerhouse substation over 7,200/12,470 volt four wire grounded neutral overhead lines. The substation consists of three single phase platform mounted transformers with a total capacity of 1,500 kVA. There are no transmission class lines within the area, or electric lines interconnecting the area with other sources or loads. The powerhouse is a modern, single-tier steel structure. The diesel fuel storage facility has a capacity of 64,000 gallons and is equipped with spill containment dikes. The powerhouse, adjacent substation and the diesel fuel tank farm are circumscribed with a security fence, except for the main entrance to the powerhouse. All access is controlled. Kasaan Central station electricity in Kasaan is generated by diesel-electric generators, two 33 kilowatt and two 90 kilowatt units. The units are Caterpillar models 3304. The powerhouse is a modem, single-tier steel structure. The diesel fuel tank farm has a storage capacity of 20,500 gallons and is circumscribed by a spill containment dike. The substation consists of three single phase padmounted transformers with a total capacity of 150 kVA. Access to the powerhouse, fuel discharge valves and transformers is controlled. available to replace the diesel-generated power (purchased from the same utility) sometime in 1995. The Black Bear Project area is served by diesel generators. The utilities in Craig, Klawock, and Hydaburg serve most of the residential, commercial, and public sector consumers in the area. Cannery and cold storage facilities in Craig and Hydaburg generate their own electricity, as does the timber mill in Klawock when the latter is operating. In the past, the timber mill in Klawock has expressed interest in selling excess electricity generated from its wood waste facility to both Alaska Power & Telephone Company and the Electrical Authority. However, financial and legal problems have prevented the mill from operating off and on for the past several years. In addition to these problems, the ability of the mill to furnish its needs and the needs of both utilities is in doubt by the Electrical Authority. Diesel-electric generation, either by Alaska Power & Telephone Company or the Electrical Authority, is expected to assume only a backup role in Klawock when Black Bear Lake hydroelectric power becomes available. HISTORICAL POWER REQUIREMENTS DATA & ANALYSIS Data Sources Total kilowatt-hour sales and coincidental peak demand data per village was obtained from prior studies and company records. Portions of the data obtained from prior studies was estimated because of inadequate metering and/or poor record keeping. However, its accuracy was considered adequate for use in this study. Village population data was obtained from the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs and from the Research and Analysis Division of the Alaska Department of Labor. Except for the census years 1980 and 1990, population data was estimated by the department of Community and Regional Affairs. Variations between these estimates and U.S. census data suggest that these estimates may not be entirely credible. Accordingly we have given greater weight to the census data. Mathematical Modelling Methods The small size and individually distinct characteristics of the Authority's six service areas limit their susceptibility to effective mathematical modelling. We have, however, developed our "most likely" forecasts using the available statistical data and the Forecast Pro modelling program. The "most likely" scenario reflects management's evaluation of future developments in light of available data and informed opinions on economic, social and cultural influences affecting each community. Low ("worst case") projections reflect the possibility of no growth except for changes already committed or planned. The high ne ("best case") scenario projects, in addition to specifically identified changes in consumer mix, growth in population and consumption at rates similar to those of the past ten years. For Chilkat Valley, reliable historical population figures are not available, nor, of course, do we have power consumption statistics. In this case our estimates are based upon our counts of potential consumers, with varying rates of sign-up for service and population growth, combined with assumed rates of consumption. For residential and small commercial consumers these rates begin well below the average for the more mature service areas and grow over the forecast period to approximate the averages for the system as a whole. For larger and interruptible power users consumption has been estimated individually, recognizing that no historical data are available. Population History and Analysis Generally, there is little opportunity for personal growth in the villages. As young people gain broader experience and education, they tend to seek opportunities elsewhere. However, as state and federal expenditures and the general economy in Alaska declined in the mid-eighties, there was a migration of Natives back to Angoon, Kake and Klawock. Also, significant numbers of non-Natives migrated to Klawock due to increased logging activities. As a result, the total population of the five villages served by the Electrical Authority increased by 35.6% between 1980 and 1990. The 1990 census indicated that 67.2 percent of the inhabitants of Hoonah were Alaska Natives, predominantly Tlingit Indians. The population of the area increased from 680 in 1980 to 795 in 1990. The 1990 census indicated that 73.4 percent of the Kake population at that time was Native American. The total population increase from 555 in 1980 to 700 in 1990, for an average annual increase of 2.35%. Klawock, reflecting the high level of timber harvesting and processing activities on Prince of Wales Island, showed the highest average growth rate among the villages served, at 5.98% annually between 1980 and 1990. Census data indicate that a substantial portion of this growth reflects the in-migration of non-Native Americans to the area. Angoon, on the other hand, experienced the second fastest growth rate, at 3.21%, despite its relative isolation and the absence of substantial industrial activity. Its Native American population percentage remains high, at 82.3%. No reliable data is available except for years for which we have federal census figures. We have, however, included estimates made by the local community governments or the state Dept. of Community and Regional Affairs for the other years. The following table shows the available population information by location from 1980 to 1993. 12 SERVICE AREA POPULATION Ave. Ann. pee CCU [ep aT (pes os [ea] a5 | was] || | mL [HEL Tea Syn Sra Tal Sseel Tesi] real Teal Tray Sos sel Tose Soo] Sea Sa er] — a Consumer Growth History and Analysis by Location and Class In 1993 the Electrical Authority served a monthly average of 1265 active consumers. All were beneficiaries of the Rural Electrification Act. Inasmuch as the Electrical Authority's service area throughout the test period consisted of five (5) independent and electrically unrelated villages, each was analyzed separately. Reclassification of some consumers between commercial and public facilities classes, and in one case interruptible service, compounds the difficulty of analyzing the number of consumers in these classes. Angoon showed a small decline in the number of consumers between 1984 and 1987, reaching a low point of 151. This decline occurred in all categories except for "large commercial," which has remained constant at 2 throughout the historical period. Between 1987 and 1990, consumer numbers grew by 29%, led by a 31% increase in residential consumers. Since 1990 there has been no significant growth. While there is undoubtedly some correlation with population growth, year-to-year changes tend to reflect changes in availability of housing. Angoon still has the smallest ratio of residential consumers to total population among the villages served by the Authority, reflecting a continuing housing shortage. Hoonah, which experienced moderate population growth, continues to be our largest single service area. Here again, availability of housing is a major factor in determining changes in consumer numbers, but commercial and public facilities have also grown in numbers more rapidly than population. The latter trend has levelled off, however, in the last couple of years. Kake experienced a growth rate in residential consumer numbers roughly equal to that of its population during the 1980's, while commercial consumer numbers grew more rapidly. A portion of this growth, however, represents reclassification of public schools as commercial accounts to comply with requirements of Alaska Energy Authority. Since 1990, there has been little growth, except for the 1993 addition of interruptible service to Kake Cold Storage (which was previously dependent on self-generation). 13 1990, there has been little growth, except for the 1993 addition of interruptible service to Kake Cold Storage (which was previously dependent on self-generation). Kasaan consumer numbers, while small, grew more rapidly than population during the 1980's. Since 1990, however, there has been little change. This applies to both residential and commercial categories. Here again, the public school was reclassified from public facility to commercial account status. Klawock has shown growth in both residential and commercial consumer numbers at rates significantly higher than its 5.13% average annual growth in population. This has been particularly true of residential consumers whose numbers increased, on average, 11.13% annually between 1983 and 1993. Growth in commercial accounts and public facilities continued throughout the test period, although the more recent connections have tended to be smaller users of energy. Overall, the number of consumers system-wide increased from 820 in 1983 to 1265 in 1993, an increase of approximately 54 percent. This compares to an estimated population increase of approximately 46 percent over the same period. On average, we estimate that there was an increase of one new service for each population increase of 1.14 persons from year 1983 to 1993. Kilowatt-hour Usage History and Analysis by Class of Consumer The general trend of kilowatt-hour usage by all classes of consumers for the total system increased at a slight to moderate rate over the test period. However, the usage trend of certain classes at various locations declined, primarily through changes in composition of the class. In most instances, usage growth was significantly higher in the first half of the test period than in the latter half. The average kilowatt-hour usage and annual percentage change by class of consumer for each village is summarized in the following table: 14 Average kWh Usage by Consumer Class Average Avg. KWH Usage Annual Change Class of Consumer Location 1983 1993 KWH/Month/Cons. Residential Angoon 361 516 3.64% Hoonah 376 503 2.95% Kake 397 488 2.09% Kasaan 378 382 0.11% Klawock 421 408 0.31% Smail Commercial Angoon 633 1,238 6.94% Hoonah 900 1,147 2.45% Kake 605 1,202 7.11% Kasaan 416 444 0.65% Klawock 1,552 900 -5.30% Large Commercial Angoon 7,897 11,343 3.69% Hoonah 9.067 14,507 2.26% Kake 4.839 7,170 4.01% Kasaan 0 0 0.00% Klawock 6.949 2.634 -9.25% Comm'i - Interruptible Angoon 0 0 0.00% Hoonah 0 0 0.00% Kake 0 106,479 NM Kasaan 0 0 0.00% Klawock 0 29.420 N/M * Smail Public Facility Angoon 820 2,280 10.77% Hoonah 1,091 1,712 4.61% Kake 1,064 1,777 5.26% Kasaan 410 0 N/M Klawock 1,685 740 -7.90% Large Public Facility Angoon 0 0 0.00% Hoonah 13.235 16,113 1.99% Kake 7,820 11,136 3.60% Kasaan 0 0 0.00% Klawock 23,014 0 N/M * *NOT MEANINGFUL - Consumer was reclassified 15 Public Street & Highway Lighting The Electrical Authority does not receive revenue directly from sales through street and highway lighting. Under the original transfer of service area agreements between the villages and the Electrical Authority, the Electrical Authority was/is to provide free street lights to the villages. The expense of providing street lights was offset as a franchise fee and incorporated in the rate base. The number of street lights installed in Angoon increased from 64 in 1983 to 84 in 1993. The kilowatt-hour usage in 1993 was 54,557 kWh, 2.76 percent of total kWh generated. The number of street lights installed in Hoonah increased from 81 in 1983 to 101 in 1993. The kilowatt-hour usage in 1993 was 62,264 kWh, 1.49 percent of total kWh generated. The number of street lights installed in Kake increased from 100 in 1983 to 138 in 1993. The kilowatt-hour usage in 1993 was 86,492 kWh, 2.13 percent of total kWh generated. The number of street lights installed in Kasaan remained at 3 from 1983 to 1993. The kilowatt-hour usage in 1993 was 924 kWh, 0.49 percent of total kWh generated. The number of street lights installed in Klawock increased from 52 in 1983 to 70 in 1993. The kilowatt-hour usage in 1993 was 33,409 kWh, 1.10 percent of total kWh purchased and generated. Borrower's Own Use The Electrical Authority uses a portion of the electricity it generates for operating the respective power plants. All other electrical requirements, such as office and administrative functions and repair facility functions, are supplied by the electric utility in Auke Bay. The usage for each power plant is indicated in the following "line loss" section. Line Loss Line loss computations have improved with improved metering in recent years. The Electrical Authority has established #2 ACSR as its standard distribution conductor due to the high cost of line losses associated with generating with Diesel-electric machines and logistics of operating in remote areas. Voltage drop calculations indicated that the maximum voltage drop, on a 120 volt base, was 0.32 volts in Hoonah and 0.76 volts in Kake. Other voltage drops were less than or equal to these ranges. 16 The following table indicates line losses and other energy disbursements by village for 1993: ee LINE oa * MWH "Generated" ae Purchased . Power Requirements vs. Energy Sales, History and Analysis Diesel-electric generation is the singular source of central station electricity for all villages. The Electrical Authority owns and operates its own power plants at Angoon, Chilkat Valley, Hoonah, Kake and Kasaan. It entered into a power purchase agreement in 1987 with the Alaska Power & Telephone Company for its operations in Klawock. The Electrical Authority continues to lease the power plant in Klawock from the Klawock Cooperative Association, a Native corporation, and operates it as a standby facility with short periods of use to assure that all equipment is in operating condition. Energy sales: Total system kilowatt-hour sales and the system non-coincidental peak demand have increased nonuniformly since 1983. The annual sales from 1983 through 1993 increased at an average rate of 6.48 percent per year. The non-coincidental total system demand increased at an average of 5.43 percent per year over the same period. A summary of the analysis of changes in kilowatt-hour sales as a function of time over the test period is indicated in the following table: ENERGY SALES VS. TIME ANNUAL MWH SALES AVG. % LOCATION 1983 1993 CHANGE ANGOON 993 1828 6.29 HOONAH 2102 3797 6.09 KAKE 1788 3673 7.46 KASAAN 93 «172 6.34 KLAWOCK 1557 2775 5.95 Ge Power Requirements: The total system demand is non-coincidental, whereas the demand per individual village is coincidental in nature and is metered at each power plant. The following table indicates the power requirements for each village from 1983 through 1993. PEAK DEMAND YEAR 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 LOCATION KILOWATTS Angoon 280 280 400 350 350 390 390 395 385 373 367 Hoonah 493 493 600 590 685 700 730 680 735 700 748 Kake 535 560 720 600 570 630 700 630 692 625 1064 Kasaan 2 2 6 54 45 50 4 6 63 57 53 Klawock 357 350 450 S00 500 600 600 615 666 651 631 Total 1687 1705 2230 2094 2150 2370 2466 2380 2541 2406 2863 On the whole, peak requirements have increased less rapidly than increases in kilowatt hours sold. Although the direction of change has been the same for the period as a whole, in some years in which kWh sales increased, peak demand failed to reach the level experienced in earlier years when sales were lower. This appears to reflect the affects of year-to-year differences in weather patterns and changes in the mix of consumers. Seasonal Peak Maximum peak demand and maximum monthly kilowatt-hour sales generally occur during the winter months from October through February. This is attributable to the high number of residential, small commercial and public facility consumers, including public schools, compared to total consumer load, and the fact of long dark rainy winter days when many residents stay at home. An exception to this pattern is Kake where, since the connection of the Kake Cold Storage interruptible service, peak requirements are experienced during the summer months of heavy fish processing activity. Load Factor Analysis Angoon: The rate of change in peak demand has been inconsistent with the change in kilowatt-hours generated. Load factors, which reached an interim high of 53 percent in 1984, declined to a low of 41 percent in 1985 then increased erratically to a new peak of 62% in 1993. For the period as a whole, the mean load factor was 52.9%. No clear relationship between changes in energy and power requirements was discernible during the test period. Total kilowatt-hours generated continued increasing while total demand peaked at 400 kW in 1985, a level not experienced since (while kWh sold in 1993 exceeded those for 1985 by 50%, peak demand reached only 367 kW). The Angoon area is one of very slow growth, and the Electrical Authority believes it reasonable and prudent that a load factor approximating that of 1993 be used for future 18 power projections. Doing so, the demand at Angoon will not exceed the available firm power of 700 kW during the forecast period. Hoonah: The rate of change in peak demand at Hoonah has been, for the most part, consistent with the changes in total energy generated. Annual load factors from 1983 to 1993 ranged from a low of 56 percent in 1985 to a high of 66 percent in 1992. The mean load factor for the period was 61.4 percent. The Hoonah power plant was heavily damaged by fire in January 1991. The largest of the three diesel-electric units was destroyed and one of the two remaining 610 kW units severely damaged. The destroyed 855 kW unit was replaced with a like engine and generator set, while the damaged unit was replaced by a 560 kW unit of more efficient design. While this reduced firm power in Hoonah from 1220 to 1170 kW, this capacity is expected to be sufficient throughout the forecast period. Kake: The annual load factor generally increased from 47% in 1983 through 1992, when it peaked at 56%. With the addition of the heavily seasonal Kake Cold Storage load in 1993, the load factor for that year slipped to 44% as expected. For forecast purposes we have used an estimated load factor of 47%, reflecting our expectation that seasonal factors will continue to have a major influence on demand. In 1993 the Authority increased its installed capacity from 1430 kW to 2230 kW and its firm capacity to 1130 kW. While this will barely be sufficient firm capacity to handle the forecast coincident peak demand, Kake Cold Storage will maintain its own generation on a standby basis and receive interruptible power from the Authority. The balance of the load forecast for Kake is amply covered by firm capacity. Kasaan: The load factor declined from a high in 1983 of 55 percent to the 1985 level of 26 percent, increased to 40% by 1989, dropped back to 34% in 1990 and reached 40% again in 1993. Given this history, a load factor of 40 percent seems a reasonable value for future projections. Since its last power requirements study the Electrical Authority has reconnected a 90 kW generating unit, increasing its available firm capacity from 66 kW to 156 kW. Projected power requirements will not exceed this increased firm capacity during the forecast period. Klawock: The load factor in Klawock was inconsistent over the period from 1983 to 1993. It ranged from a high of 61 percent in 1984 to a low of 44 percent in 1988 and 1989. The 1993 load factor was 55 percent. Assuming a load factor of 55 percent as reasonable, the projected power requirements will exceed the existing stand-alone "firm" capacity of 800 kW in 1996 or 1997. A proposed new fish processing plant and other potential development may accelerate this projected growth, though we are unable to assess the timing or magnitude of these demands at this time. 19 The Electrical Authority entered into a five (5) year agreement beginning January 15, 1988 with Alaska Power & Telephone Company to purchase all power and energy requirements from A P & T's Craig facility. This contract has been extended for an additional period ending in 2002. The Electrical Authority's Klawock power plant is maintained in cold standby mode except for occasional brief periods when transmission of A P & T power is interrupted. In view of this fact, total installed capacity of 1300 kW could be considered firm. POWER REQUIREMENTS FORECAST Methods Three forecasts, resulting in high, medium and low energy requirement projections for each community were considered in this study. The three methods were: (1) for existing service areas, no growth except for consumers already on line or with pending service applications at the time of this study, for new service areas, both "no growth" and an extended connection period were projected; consumption for each consumer class was projected at the lower of 1993 or the eleven-year average level; (2) statistical modelling based upon past consumption for each community and consumer class and management estimates of consumer numbers based on experience and the best information available at the time of the study for the five village systems; for Chilkat Valley, projection based on presently connected and pending services with a six percent annual growth rate in consumer numbers in future years for the presently installed system, and completion of the remainder of the system and connection of pending consumers in this "phase two" area in 1995 with four percent annual growth in consumer numbers in that segment after 1996; consumption in Chilkat Valley based on low usage experienced in the initial months of service increasing to the utility-wide average by 2003; and (3) for village systems, growth rates equal to the 1983-1993 average with the addition of actual new interruptible power consumers connected in 1994; for Chilkat Valley, no changes in initial consumer numbers, but residential consumer numbers assumed to increase at 6% annually (after 1995 for phase one, after 1996 for phase two), consumption per consumer projected to reach the utility-wide average within five years. Given the uncertainty of causation due to the limits of available data and correlation of such factors as economic opportunity and population trends, the Electrical Authority felt that the statistical modelling method of forecasting future expectations was the most reasonable on which to base its power requirements. This forecast is identified as "most likely" in the discussion and exhibits which follow. General Assumptions Economy: The economy of Alaska as a whole is heavily dependent on the price, and increasingly on production levels, of oil from state lands. The Authority's service area is not immune to this influence, as state funds pay for many services and provide funding for various municipal activities and public facilities. These funds are subject to the pressures 20 effecting all state outlays as revenues continue to decline over the next decade. Most of these communities, however, rely much more heavily on traditional resource-based activities, particularly fishing and, in recent years, logging. Both are subject to market fluctuations which affect the levels of activity and the income derived from the activity. Fishing experiences fluctuating fish runs, changes in catch regulations and changing processing methods, all of which may add to or detract from the competitive position of individual communities, as well as other influences such as development of new fisheries and various forms of fish farming. Timber harvesting is dependent both on market price and on timber availability. While the former may be expected to follow somewhat traditional cycles, the latter is affected by corporate decisions, some of which are not market-driven, and by political developments affecting operations in the Tongass National Forest. Mining, which is beginning to be an important element in the economy of Southeastern Alaska, is not expected to directly affect the Authority's service areas during the forecast period. While fishing will remain a mainstay of the Angoon, Hoonah and Kake economies and will contribute to those of Kasaan and Klawock, expansion of local processing, including development of value-added products, holds the principal growth potential in this economic sector. Timber harvest in the 1980's experienced a high level of activity, much of it related to Native Corporation timber. This portion of the resource has been largely exploited, however, and this activity is expected to continue to decline over the next few years. Harvest in the Tongass National Forest will continue, but if anything, will be at a lower rate than in the recent past. In summary, economic opportunities in the Authority's traditional service areas will be limited, with growth in any one area unlikely to much more than offset declines in others. The Chilkat Valley area, while not immune to the influences described above, is one of recent, primarily residential, growth, and may reasonably be expected to experience further growth due to its geographic relationship to the growing community of Haines and its strategic location along the principal transportation corridor connecting Southeast with Central Alaska. Population: During the mid-1980's Alaska as a whole experienced a decline in population, reflecting the steep drop in oil prices which depressed both state revenues and petroleum industry activity. This decline primarily affected the large urban areas of the state, however, and in rural Alaska, particularly the small communities of Southeast Alaska, it appears that the reverse was true. Opportunities in timber harvesting and family ties in the villages attracted residents who had found limited opportunities in other areas. While year-to-year population estimates 21 for these communities are suspect, U.S. census data indicate that all those served by the Authority experienced growth during the decade of the 80's. Growth rates ranged from a low of 1.57% compounded annual rate, in Hoonah to a high of 5.98% in Klawock. Population data for years since 1990 are of questionable reliability, but suggest that these rates have, in general, moderated. With economic opportunities improved elsewhere in Alaska and the limited prospects, previously discussed, for the villages, it is expected that growth rates will be moderate throughout the forecast period. Consumers: The number of consumers correlates closely, over time, with population changes. Residential consumer numbers however, relate on a year-to-year basis more closely to changes in available housing. Our projections take into account known housing development plans for 1995 and 1996. Energy Sales: The price of diesel fuel is a significant factor in the cost of electric generation. Fluctuations in cost are passed to the consumer on a direct cost basis. No attempt was made to interject future oil prices into the usage function. Historically, as crude oil prices have gone up so has the State's ability and willingness to subsidize electric rates to qualifying consumers through the power cost equalization subsidy program. On the other hand, extremely low crude oil prices affect the State's ability and willingness to pay and increase pressure to reduce or eliminate the subsidy program. In 1993, the Alaska legislature approved, in principle, continuation of Power Cost Equalization for an additional twenty year period and appropriated forward funding intended to stabilize the program at current levels at least through 1998. This policy was designed to allow time for adjustments in generation methods and construction of transmission facilities which could eliminate the need for subsidy over the intermediate-to-long term. Since future State appropriations will be required to support the PCE program and to assist in developing the necessary generation and transmission infrastructure, rural utilities and their consumers will be under continuing pressure to hold down energy costs and to limit usage to levels which can be sustained without major public funding. Kilowatt-hour usage per consumer is expected to decline moderately for the residential class of consumers. Little or no change in average usage by other classes of consumers is expected. Other Energy Requirements: Although a continuation of the recent more moderate growth rates in consumer numbers compared with that experienced in the 1980's is projected for the forecast period in the Authority's traditional service areas, provision of interruptible power to large industrial, commercial and public facilities is projected to result in higher utilization of the Authority's plant during the forecast period. No net addition of street lights is anticipated during the forecast period, reflecting continuing Electrical Authority control over their installation. It is assumed that the cost of street light installation and operations will remain in the rate base. 22 Power Requirements: Efforts to improve the efficiency of distributing electricity are expected to continue through the term of this forecast period, with line losses averaging 5.18 percent. The load factor based on the maximum monthly system peak for the total system is expected to average 55 percent. Given the assumptions of moderate consumer growth and relative stability in average kilowatt-hour usage, the maximum monthly system peak demand is expected to increase at a moderate rate concurrent with kilowatt-hour sales. Power Supply: Short and mid-term alternatives to diesel generation appear to be limited, except for the planned availability in Klawock of hydroelectric power from Alaska Power and Telephone Company's Black Bear Lake project in mid-to-late 1995 and the longer- term possibility of purchasing hydroelectric power from a project under consideration by Haines Light and Power for Chilkat Valley. While it intends to take advantage of such opportunities when and if they become available, for purposes of this study the Electrical Authority expects to generate electricity by internal combustion, piston-type diesel-electric machines for the duration of this forecast period, 1994-2003, in Angoon, Hoonah, Kake, Kasaan and Chilkat Valley, and to continue to purchase its electrical requirements for Klawock from the Alaska Power & Telephone Company except under emergency situations requiring use of its own standby generation. Results Consumers: Based on the general assumptions already discussed, the analysis of historical data and the method of forecasting indicated above, the Electrical Authority projects a total increase of 445 consumers system-wide for the period from 1994 to 2003. The increase is projected to include 372 residential consumers, 67 commercial and industrial consumers of 1,000 kVA or less, 4 interruptible power services and 2 public facility consumers. The total number of consumers system-wide by the year 2003 is expected to be 1,711. The average annual rate of increase is 3.06 percent. The number of consumers in Angoon is expected to increase by 21 from 1993 to 2003, for a total of 216. The increase is comprised primarily of 20 residential class consumers, reflecting the expected construction of a like number of HUD-sponsored housing units in 1995-96. An increase of one commercial consumer reflects a slight average growth in a class which fluctuates considerably from month to month and year to year. The over all average annual rate of increase is 1.03 percent. The number of consumers in Hoonah is expected to increase by 59 residential class consumers. One new commercial consumer replaces the Hoonah Public Schools, which acquired its own generation capacity and converted to interruptible power in early 1994. The total number of consumers is expected to increase from 351 in 1993 to 411 in 2003, an average annual rate of 1.59 percent. The number of consumers in Kake is expected to increase by 30 residential class consumers, 43 commercial and industrial class consumers of 1,000 kVA or less and 3 23 public facility class consumers. The large number of new commercial connections includes the addition of 36 new services in the Kake Boat Harbor in 1994-95. These services will have relatively low usage, reducing the average for the class. The total number of consumers is expected to increase from 293 in 1993 to 369 in 2003, an average annual rate of 2.33 percent. The number of consumers in Kasaan is expected to show no change from 1993 to 2003. While economic activity elsewhere on Prince of Wales Island has continued to grow, this isolated village remains out of the mainstream. It appears this will change only if and when a road connection to the rest of the Island is completed, a development we are not anticipating during the forecast period. The number of consumers in Klawock is expected to increase by 68 residential class consumers, 13 commercial and industrial class consumers of 1,000 kVA or less and two new interruptible power consumers by 2003. The total number of consumers is expected to increase from 391 in 1993 to 474 in 2003, an average annual rate of increase of 1.94 percent. Chilkat Valley, whose first consumers were billed in January 1994, is expected to serve a total of 205 consumers by 2003. Of these, 194 will be residential, 9 commercial and 2 interruptible power consumers. In its first six months of operation, total consumer numbers increased from 38 in January to 78 in June. Annual Energy Requirements: Annual megawatt-hour requirements for the total system are expected to increase from 13,444 mWh in 1993 to 18,123 mWh in 2003, an increase of 4,679 mWh. The average annual rate of increase is 3.03 percent. Annual energy requirements in Angoon are expected to increase from 1,980 mWh in 1993 to 2,070 mWh in 2003. The average annual rate of increase is .45 percent. Annual energy requirements in Hoonah are expected to increase from 4,193 mWh in 1993 to 4,404 mWh in 2003. The average annual rate of increase is .49 percent. Annual energy requirements in Kake are expected to increase from 4,059 mWh in 1993 to 4,566 mWh in 2003. The average annual rate of increase is 1.18 percent. Annual energy requirements in Kasaan are expected to increase from 190 mWh in 1993 to 195 mWh in 2003. The average annual rate of increase is .26% Annual energy requirements in Klawock are expected to increase from 3,023 mWh in 1993 to 4,349 mWh in 2003. The average annual rate of increase is 3.70 percent. Annual energy requirements in Chilkat Valley are expected to be 496 mWh in 1994, the first year of service, increasing to 2,539 by the year 2003, for an average annual increase of 19.89 percent. 24 Annual Power Requirements: The noncoincidental peak demand for the total system is expected to increase from 2,863 kilowatts in 1993 to 3,781 kilowatts in 2003. The average annual rate of increase is 2.82 percent. The total connected power available at the time of this study is 8,526 kW, resulting in a system wide utilization ratio of 33.6 percent. The total firm power available determined by excluding the single largest machine at each power plant as is the case when a machine is being repaired, is 4,566 kW. The utilization ratio based on firm power available is 62.7 percent. Based on the projected total power requirements for 2003, the power required in the existing service areas will not exceed the currently available firm power. However, since the total connected power available is comprised of six independent power plants that are in no way interconnected, each village must be considered separately. Maximum monthly peak demand in Angoon is expected to increase from 367 kW in 1993 to 387 kW in 2003, an average annual increase of .53 percent. The total power presently available is 1260 kW and the available firm power is 700 kW. Under this circumstance, the power requirements will not approach the available firm power during the forecast period. The power requirements for Hoonah are expected to increase from a maximum monthly peak of 748 kW in 1993 to 774 kW in 2003. The projected average annual growth rate is .34 percent. The available firm power in Hoonah is 1,170 kW. No additional generating capacity is planned during this forecast period. The power requirements for Kake are expected to increase from a maximum monthly peak of 1064 kW in 1993 to 1,109 kW in 2003, an average annual increase of .42 percent. The current available firm power in Kake is 1130 kW. Based on the projections of this study, and considering the fact that approximately 400 kW of the projected peak demand is for interruptible service, no further capacity additions are planned during the forecast period. The power requirements for Kasaan, which reached a maximum monthly peak of 63 kW in 1991, declined to 53 by 1993. We project a moderate increase to 56 kW in 2003, a level which approximates the average for the past five years. The current available firm power in Kasaan is 156 kW. Based on the projections of this study, the addition of new capacity will not be required during the period of this forecast. The power requirements for Klawock are expected to increase from a maximum monthly peak of 631 kW in 1993 to 907 kW in 2003, an average annual increase of 3.69 percent. The current available installed capacity in Klawock totals 1300 KW. All of the power plant facilities in Klawock are leased from Klawock Cooperative, a native corporation organized under the Indian Reorganization Act. Since the primary power source for Klawock is purchased power, and this capacity is maintained as a standby source only, no additional generating capacity will be required during this forecast period. 25 __ Historical [Period 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 [<< SS SS SESS Ss | SSS | SSS SSSA SS =: <==S=SS=: i —<—S SSS S| SS SS =: 543, 562]; 562 639 639] 130/125 121 123 143[ 149 161 162' 618026} 701090 708133] 792418| 874952] 953418| 1063352| 913611 306] «467 488 538 509) 534 551 471 22 19 18} “22 22 25) 2 218392| _254037| 306125] 322231] 345742| 373964] 373617’ 827 1114 1417 2a 2 213800] 178560; 198040 908] 7440/8252 1221 1310 1247 2 2 2 220520| 205400] _233860/ 9188] 6558} 9745 2 BT AbW “ “HIN TWOITYLDSTS HBL WHOS: TT S8s@ 68.2 2'd CONSUMERS/SALES Residential 1351 411590 25 ~ 1372 417834 1393|_ Consumers KWH iT Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 2 272118 11338 2 272118| 272118 11338 11338 272118 S6. BT ABW TS H8L We2S:TT “HIN TWOTe S8S8 68. E'd ~ 1989 1990 1991 TRE 11 127919| 103267 94885| 94015 101507) 7 98427 7 101297; 7 106960 90269] 193774 989) 1410) 1472) 1206 1289 1649388| 1721893] 1827616 63000 $7000) 84 wl «aa 54345| 54206] 54557 11680) 7726 12659 1218250 1332128] 1341503) 1521250 1653683| 1715413] 1783825] 1894832) 82841 6.37% 1211208 1211 90585 6.37% 91222) 6.37% 101564 6.26% 132108 7.40% 84976) 429% 228196 91908 4.90% 11.74% 49.38%! 53: ll 40. oe 57.41%] 61.58% ‘==s===—: QT ABW “HINO WITHLSSTS H8L We2S:TT sé, , S8S8 68. GT AbW 119563| 119563] 119563 a 1423 1423 1423 8 fa = KWH hn Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 4 H Consumer Totats 2 Ave. No. Consumers R 1877201 z ie =j a4 8 aa g 068s} 10688 9 95] 1942240] 1948 1948484] 1 415000] 115369] 5.50%| 5.59% ag 2063853) aT 2064 2 Uv Hoonah Date: June 1994 Source: THREA Power Requirements Study 1994-2003 prepared by William Brock, Chief Financial Officer Methodology A simple spreadsheet model calculates sales for each customer class as # of customers times use per customer. For both types of variables recent historical trends and professional judgment are used to determine future trends. Results: Energy requirements grow at 0.5 percent per year from 1993-2003. Growth stems mostly from assumed increase in number of residential customers. Peak load grows at 0.3 percent per year, but the difference between peak load growth and energy growth is not material. Only one forecast is presented. Comments: Methodology is transparent and similar to that used in this report. Assumptions about growth in use per commercial customer are somewhat ad hoc but this is unavoidable given the small size of the community. A summary and excerpts follow. Some of the relevant excerpts are contained above with the Angoon excerpts, since both communities are discussed together in the forecast. Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-5 Hoonah Projected Electric Energy Requirements: 1994 - 2003 Prepared June 1994 by THREA Residential Small Commercial Public Facilities Totals and Losses Com- Total System pany #of Use/Cust Sales #of Use/Cust Sales Use Losses Use Cust kWh MWh MWh | Cust kWh MWh Mwh MWh MWh actual 34,380 516 3,434 220 84 actual 30,678 460 3,536 192 92 actual 31,613 506 3,737 244 58 actual 31,340 501 3,859 256 78 28,705 459 3,735 234 76 28,705 459 3,844 241 76 28,705 459 3,871 243 76 28,705 459 3,898 244 76 28,705 459 3,926 246 76 28,705 459 3,953 248 76 28,705 459 3,980 249 76 28,705 459 4,013 251 76 28,705 459 4,041 253 76 28,705 459 4,073 255 76 1993-2003 average annual growth rates: 0.6% 2.0% -1.0% 1.0% 0.0% -06% -06% 14% 0.0% -0.9% -0.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.2% 05% 0.3% 0.1% ISER COMPILE.XLS printed 8/4/95 3:03 AM Hoonah Forecast: Excerpts See the Angoon section above for narrative discussion of the assumptions. Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-7 IHOONAH 1983 1984 | 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 | 1990 1991 1992 1993 Populatio 865; 938] 908 908/906 906 895) 795 793 968 968) CONSUMERS/SALES Residential | | i | Consumers 216 220 224). 226 224 8 "252 253 264 273 KWH 973441] 977386] 1087577| 1116927] 1193470) 1304263) 1431256 1460910) 1479366} 1555096] 1645123 Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 376) 370 404 411 444 _ 483 488) 491 503 Small Commercial Consumers x 38 41 40 46 56 59) 57 KWH 361835) 450313) 483557) 483082 613366} 722539] 758707) 779623 Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 900) 977 985 1019 1024 1107 1072[ 1073 1147 ge Commercial Consumers 5 5 5 5 KWH 773010| 812270) 855110} 870413) Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 12884 13538) 14252 14507 Lg.Com'i, Interruptible Consumers i il Co _KWH iin i Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo il Small Public Facilities im i la Consumers 9 8 8 8 8 10 14 14 14 15 15 KWH __|_ 122222] 162324) 156670| 130188] 128642! 117647| 305092) 310415) 265646) 305803) 308085 Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 1091 1691 1632 1356) 1326 972 1816 1848 1581 1757 171 | = BT AW “ S8SB 682 “HIN WITLI HBL WES: TT S'd 1994 1995 861 878 950 285 290 1559437) 1586795 456 -295 300 1614154) 1641512 305 1668871 456) 57 736882 1077 310 345 1696229] 1723588 ~ 456 455 736882 321 1756418 456 87 736882 1077 326 332! 1783777| 1816607; 456 456 57 736882 1077 57 736882 1077 KWH Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 10177 5 610628 10177 5 610626 10177 Lg.Com', Interruptible Consumers KWH Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 1 Smail Public Facilities Consumers KWH Ave. KWH/Cons/Mo 15 289256 1607 1607 289256] 289256 1607) 1607 1607 1607 1607 1607 289256 1607| AW 6. BT $898 682 ‘HIN WIELDS H8L WES: TT 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 14020} _ | 2 336480) 2 319512) 13313 3 319128: 13297| 0 9180 1 205080 17090 i 1 1 205284| _194520| 200000 17107|_162%0| ‘16667 2101538] 2222871 2383324] 2595457) 2829622) 3063788} 3500504) 3362085) 3474341] 3674716) 3796604 70848 102000 71712) Se, _ Pa 71049 57560 101 101 101 71188] 61730| 62504 83600| 92162 3629083; 3517773) 373570) 13.49% 13.08% 433568 10.67% 220228] 192405] 243678 5.89% $.04%| 6.03% AGW 6. BT S8S8 682 “HINN WOINLIST HBL WdBB:2T 8'd 170023| 14169 101 62166) 76100) 64.93%] 64.93%] “64 53%] 64.95%] 64.93%] 64.03% SSeS Sessa sss ssSsSSsssSsa=SE=5) GT AbW “HLNY TWIIALISTS HBL WdT@:2T sé, S8S8 68. 6'd Juneau Date: January 1995 Source: Alaska Electric Light & Power Spreadsheet provided by William Corbus, dated 1/3/95 Methodology Total Juneau employment is calculated from basic sector employment. Residential customers calculated from total employment. Residential sales calculated as number of customers times use per customer for each of three residential rate classes: general, electric hot water, and all-electric homes. Commercial and government sales apparently calculated based on employment and a trend in use per employee. Line losses calculated as 6.5 percent of sales. Peak load is not presented. Key Assumptions e New basic sector jobs come from tourism (about 15 new jobs per year) and the Greens Creek and A-J mines (about 720 operations jobs from these two mines). e For each basic job there are 1.2 additional support jobs created. e Each job creates about 0.8 residential customers. Methodology for effects on commercial sales is unclear. Results: Energy requirements grow at: 1.0 percent per year from 1993-2013. Peak load is not presented. Using the 1993 load factor of .54, peak load can be estimated to grow from 1993 level of 61 MW to about 75 MW in 2013. Only one forecast is presented. Comments: Methodology is very similar to that used in this report. Basic employment assumptions are well-documented. The economic multiplier value of 2.2 used to calculate support employment is very high, but may be appropriate for a self-contained economy such as Juneau if the basic jobs are high-paying and the support jobs low-paying. Residential use per customer is projected to decline for all classes. Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-8 actual actual ISER Juneau Projected Electric Energy Requirements Prepared January 1995 by AEL&P Employment Residential Commercial & Government avg use Street Totals and Losses Energy Year-end | Res. cust. |number of per Resident- Govern- Lights & Line Require- per cust- customer ial Sales |Comm-ercial ment Sales Misc Sales|Total Sales Losses Company ments employee | omers kWh MWh {Sales MWh MWh MWh Mwh MWh Use MWh MWh 0.78} 10,789 11,495 124,023 54,407 11,226 | 266,609 21,329 287,938 0.77 123,887 12,301 | 270,770 18,954 289,724 est. 0.79 3,128,556 A342 | 285,224 18,540. 303,764 0.80 131,411 13,467 | 295,143 19,184 —-2,754317,081 0.81) 11,682 11,546 134,877 13,492 | 301,169 19,576 2,754 323,499 0.82} 12,083 11,524 139,243 i i 13,517 | 309,059 20,089 2,754 331,902 0.82) 12,274 11,500 141,156 97,113 60,287 13,542 | 312,098 20,286 2,754 335,138 0.83} 12,403 11,477 142,355 97,312 60,410 13,567 | 313,644 20,387 2,754 336,785 0.83) 12,636 11,455 144,741 98,881 61,384 13,592 | 318,598 20,709 2,754 342,061 0.83} 12,706 11,431 145,243 99,206 61,586 13,617 | 319,652 20,777 2,754 343,183 0.83} 12,775 11,408 145,742 99,529 61,787 13,642 | 320,700 20,845 2,754 344,299 0.83) 12,844 11,386 146,248 99,857 61,990 13,667 | 321,762 20,914 2,754 345,430 0.83) 12,915 11,363 146,753 100,184 62,193 13,692 | 322,822 20,983 2,754 346,559 0.83) 12,985 11,340 147,254 100,508 62,394 13,717 | 323,873 21,052 2,754 347,679 0.83} 13,057 11,318 147,773 100,844 62,603 13,742 | 324,962 21,123 2,754 348,839 0.83) 13,129 11,295 148,291 101,180 62,812 13,767 | 326,050 21,193 2,754 349,997 0.83} 13,200 11,273 148,804 101,513 63,018 13,792 | 327,127 21,263 2,754 351,144 0.83} 13,273 11,250 149,326 101,851 63,228 13,817 | 328,222 21,334 2,754 352,310 0.83} 13,346 11,228 149,846 102,188 63,437 13,842 | 329,313 21,405 2,754 353,472 0.83} 13,420 11,204 150,362 102,523 63,645 13,867 | 330,397 21,476 2,754 354,627 0.83) 13,492 11,183 150,876 102,856 63,852 13,892 | 331,476 21,546 2,754 355,776 0.83} 13,565 11,160 151,388 103,187 64,057 13,917 | 332,549 21,616 2,754 356,919 1993-2013 average annual growth rates: 0.8% 0.4% 1.2% -0.2% 1.0% 1.3% 0.7% 06% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% JUNEAU.XLS printed 8/4/95 12:45 AM Juneau Forecast: Excerpts Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-10 KWHREQ.XLS 1/3/95 _ Alaska Electréce Light and Power Company : } Energy Requirements For 1995 Snettisham Allocation Request . i —_ _ dae 95 . y : ain _ : | ! : ! ' ! : i | Taetual Actual Act/Est Budget t . ; i 1 gre cv9s "cro cvs cys | cvez * cv98 | crop [| cvoo ~ cvol cvO2—CYOS —CYO4 CYS, CYOGH CVO? CMOS CYOR CYIO cYi1 cyi2 cYi3 | Juneau Employ-Beg Year 113995" 14284) 14487" 14508 14653; 14930 _ 15305" 15447| 15504 15786 15869 1595316037 1612216207 1626 16381_ 16467 16555 1664316731 16819 Net Change ! 7 ma t Governnent-HcDowell Group =25' -100 100 : - Tourism - McDowell Group 2 n 12 3 12! B 3B 1% 3 3% 1 15 15 3% 1515) — “Fishing - McDowell Group 10 — 1010 of rT Tao 7 a _ i - ___ Greens Creek Mine-Constr 9% «137-275 -. —_ Sparations ; - a 275 4 = Constr(FEIS dj Salm ts a9 — ___ Operation(FEIS Adj) - aan __ Kensington Hine -Constr(FEIS Adj) i ; i ! . Operation(FEIS Adj) 3: : Cther y H Totat i y ai" 12013323 Second Employ-Net Chg-1.2 x Net Chgt : 25146" 160 { Total Net Chg i i FS Lc} 4 a 8 ! Juneau Employ-End Year | 16284: 14487 14508" 1465314930 15303 15441' 15504" 15786 15869 1595316037 16122 16207 16294 16341 16467 16555 1664316731 Ratio Res. Cust/Juneau Empl 0.78 0.77; 0.79. 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.83; 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83' 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 JAELP Residentias Customers+Exper | 11206" 11210, 11521! 11791121141 (12516 12707 128361 13069 13138 13207 13277 13348 13418 13490 13562 13633 13706 13779 13852. Experinental Tar ee $32; 433433) 433433) 33! 433 433433333333 AS33333 SSS. |AEL? Residential Customers 10789 1076811089 -—«11358~—11681° «1208312274 12403! 1279512774 12846 12915-12985 «1305713129 13200 13273 13366 13419 _Nat Change in Residential Customer 179-21 321269323 CTD “6 69700 7 7 2 3 a + =a | 4853, 4839 4958 +5078 5223, 5403" 5488 5545. 5650. Jse per Customer-kwh "66816839" 69106897883 BED OBSS” —BL2" BBC __ Energy Requirement 32623 33095-34262 35023 35947 37170 37620 37940 38575 38709 S712 57435774 $806 58385870 59025935 5967 6000 i 67876773 6760_—«6746—«GT3S_—<G719_—«6706 —«6693_—«G4TO 38977 39112 39245 3952239658 35798 39936 40074 ter 7 Customers "2663-2679 tse pe> Customer-kwh 71e85 11838 nergy Requirement 3164931714 3167-3184. -—«3202~—«3219~=«dS237~—«dS2SS~—«SATZ_—«3S2AD_~«—«330D-=—=«dS327?_—«33LS~——« 863} 3075; 31323150 W722. 11699-17676 ~—-11652_—«11629_—- 17606 11582-11559, 17536 17513 19490 17667-1106 14527 7 a oe 37028 37156 37283 37414 37546 37676 37808 37939 SEN70 36200 38320 Page 1 2:20 PM KWHREQ.XLS 1/3/25 I a T | — 327332503382 3464 3863] HS) 374313783! 3854 39173939 396039824004 4026 4043 78317" 18178 18257 18220-18784! 1eieel 18111! 18075" 18039" 1 1789517859 17824 17788. 17752_«17717 Requirement _ 59951 59078 61745 63116 64781) 66878, 67797! 68373. 69519. 69760! 70485 70725 7097571223. 7147071721 H t i i ! otal Residential 124023 123887 128556 131411 134877! 139263; 141156) 142355! 164761" 145203" 145742 146268 146753 147254. 147773' 148891, 148804 149326 7695379035 B7760__92711 94275, 96434" 97113. 97312 9BBB1 99% 99857 100184 100508 100844" 101180 107573 | 3226 1301~—«1263—=—1288TSTS! 1338" 136313881413 7148515131538" 1563 1613 {Governnent Scud? 55557 $5466. 57554 58525| 59865 60287 6OAI0 61384 61586. _G1787 6199062193 E2396 62603 _G2BId E3018 3228 6s437 36563852 Gug57! [Feral 256609 259770 273045 282964 288989! 296881" 299919" 301465; 306419. 307472 308520 309582 310643 311696 312783 31387) 314948 316043 317133 316218 319297 320370) (Res. for Interrupt-payback 1000011000, 12179; 12179 121791 ~Wi79, 12179, 12179, 12179 12779~—«+12179~—«12179_—«AATY_—«12179_~—«1217Y_—-12179-_—«12179*~—«*42179._—«*12179_—12"79_—«*12479_~—*+12179' Irore. AEL KWH Sales 266609 270770 285224 295143 301168" 309060 312098 313664 318598 319651 320699 327761 322822 323873 324962 326049 327127 328222 3293-2 330307 33 esses) | 27329 18954 18540 19184 +—19576{ 20089" 20286 20387 20709 § 20914 20983 21052 21123 21793 21263 21334 27405 2754 2754, 2756-2754 2754 «2754 275427562754 2754 2754 2754 2754 2754 21329 18954 18560 27938 22330] 22643 23060 23141 23463 23668 23737 23806 23877 23947 240°? 24088 26255 287938 269724 303764 317052 323498, 331902 335138 336785 342061 343°83 344299 345430 346559 347679 348839 349996 35°74: 352311 353472 354627 ae _ i jo) Pe = i r . Ld. - _ 39308 28590 28590 27600 27600 zreooi 27600" 27600 2760027 27600 27600 27600 27600 27600 2760) 27602 27500 2760027600 27600 2760¢" 30020 24820 29000 27600 27600! 27600" 27600 27600 27600 27603 27600 27600 27600 27600 27600 2762) 27600 27602 2760C 27600 27600 2760C “Gold Creek 6827 5439 4500 «5400 —SuO0] 5400) 5400 5400) 5400 5400 5400 S40 «5400 S400 S400 S40) 5400 S400 S400 SLOD "Sago! Total Hyrdro 67195 58849 62090’ 60600 60600; 60600' 60600 60600" 60600 60400; 60600 60600 60600 60600 60600 60609 6260 60609 = 60500 6062660600] - Diesel 7 5763 723 S763] $763' $763! 5763' 5763/5763 576357635763" S763_ S765. 57635763 Sig5 57635763 3763! Total 67195 58849; 62090" 66363 66363; 66363! 66363! 66363, 66363, 66363 66363 66363 66363" 66363° 66363) 66363 66363 66363 66363 66363 66363 Snettisham 275000 275000 275000’ 275000 275000| 275000; 275000’ 275000) 275000° 275000 275000 275000 275000 275000 275000: 275000 275000 275000. 275000 275000 275000 275000) Total 342195 333869 337090 341363 341363! 341363" 341363. 341363’ 341363 341363 341363 341363 341363 341363 341363 341363 341363 341363 341363 361363 34124Y 307363) vcr feo-firm 23087524167 238540 2449561 253360 256596 258243. 263519 264641 265757 266888 268017 269137 270297 277456 27262 273769 a7Ug3C a7éCaS 27723. _278377| ~interrupt ible 12179 12178 12179 -12179"_—12179 379° -12179-12179_—-42179—12179_- 1247912179 12179_—*12779_—~12"75_—32°79-_*1; iiable for Other Uses-Firm 54257 44125 33326 24281178651 ~— 9461] 6225! 4578 a ae Secondary 50000 50000} 50000! 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 40000 40000 40000 4c000 40000 42062 40000 SH007 «Energy Available for Other Uses 33326' 74281 _67865| 59461' $6225. 54578 49302 52200 50000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40cc) 40002 400CD 4O0ce i ae ame 7 Lier obtain from McDowell Group, applied to : ! tor year change in primary eroloyment _ T 7 i SL | a 1 Sees coaieale 4 : ' —_——--—— — —_ — ; = Page 2 2:20 PM = aa = This page intentionally blank Sitka Date: March 1993 Source: R.W. Beck and Associates 1993 Update -- Electric Resource Evaluation and Strategic Plan Prepared for City and Borough of Sitka Provided by Sitka Electric Department Period Covered: 1990-2010 Methodology Econometric equations based on population, employment, income, and special treatment of electric heat use. Consumer response to the price of electricity is also incorporated indirectly by iterating the demand and power supply planning models and checking the demand results at each stage against the probable price of the supply resources needed to meet that demand. A separate economic study of Sitka prepared by McDowell Group in August 1992 provided updated economic and demographic data. Key Assumptions e Stable employment at Alaska Pulp Company Mill (at 1993 levels) e Tourism visits grow at average annual rates of 3%, 5%, and 7% (low, mid, and high cases) Fish processing activity grows at minus 4%, plus 1%, and plus 5% annually. Population grows at 0.25%, 0.75%, and 1.5% annually. Real per capita income grows at 0.5%, 1%, and 2% annually. Residential electric heat market share in new construction varies from 40% to 80% Results: Mid case energy requirements and peak load grow at 2.2 percent per year from 1990- 2010. In the low case energy grows at 0.68% and peak grows at 0.3%.In the high case energy grows at 4.0% and peak grows at 4.3%. Comments: The report notes that the updated growth rates are lower than those projected in 1991. Compare, eg, 2.2% mid case energy growth with 2.9% projected in 1991. Retail Peak load projected for the year 2010 dropped from 33 MW (1991 forecast) to 25 MW (this update). Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-11 Of course the biggest change in Sitka since the publication of this forecast has been the closing of the pulp mill. According to Steve Svec of the Sitka Electric Department, this has had two effects other than the obvious economic impacts. First, the pulp mill (with 25 MW of generation capacity tied to its process heat operations) served as an effective source of backup capacity for the City. Second, the mill was a source of $400,000 in revenue from sales of economy energy. It is unlikely that these economy energy sales can be replaced. Finally, although the pulp mill closure has brought obvious economic hardship to many people, there appears to be a local real estate boom under way in Sitka at this time. (Jim Calvin, McDowell Group, 8/2/95). Electric sales data for 1994 show that sales to all customer classes (except the mill itself ) increased from 1993. It is too early to tell how the closure will affect the economy and demand for electricity. Sitka Forecast: Excerpts The following pages contain excerpts from the Sitka forecast. Since the summaries contained in the forecast are self-evident, we have not prepared a separate summary of the results. Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-12 DRAFT REPORT 1993 UPDATE - ELECTRIC RESOURCE EVALUATION AND STRATEGIC PLAN CITY AND BOROUGH OF SITKA, ALASKA v RW, BECK AND ASSOCIATES, INC. March 1993 ei ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST The electric load forecast for the City has been updated to incorporate the City’s electric utility operating and financial results through December 1992 and current assumptions concerning future levels of population, employment and other factors as they pertain to the City’s service area. An econometric demand model for the City’s electric system was developed in 1990 which includes (among other factors) population, employment, per capita income, inflation and electric residential space heating saturation levels to develop projections of future energy and demand requirements for the City. The model accounts for consumer reaction to changes in the price of electricity (price elasticity) through an iterative process. The methodology, assumptions and results of the updated load forecast are provided in Appendix A to this report. For a more complete description of the forecast methodology see the report to the City entitled Electric System End-Use Study and Load Forecast: Phase 2 - Electric System Load Forecast, dated February 1991 and prepared by R. W. Beck. The economic study of Sitka prepared in August 1992 by the McDowell Group provided much of the updated historical economic and demographic data used in the electric load forecast. As with the previous forecast, high, medium and low scenarios were developed to acknowledge the range of future electricity requirements with differing economic, demographic and operational assumptions. The assumptions made in the updated load forecast are generally consistent with, or lower than, those used in the previous projections. Principal assumptions used in the update are as follows: je ° Population and employment growth of 0.75%, 1.5% and 0.25% annually in the medium, high and low growth scenarios, respectively, which is no change from the assumptions made previously. . Increases in real per capita income of 1%, 2% and 0.5% annually in the medium, high and low growth scenarios, respectively, which is also no change from the assumptions made previously. . Growth in fish processing of 1% and 5% annually in the medium and high cases, but declining 4% annually in the low case. These assumptions are down from those in the previous forecasts and are based on telephone conversations with the major fish processors in Sitka. . Growth of tourism in Sitka as measured by disembarking ferry visitors of 5%, 7% and 3% annually in the medium, high and low growth scenarios, respectively, which is again no change from the assumptions made previously. “ Over the forecast horizon, the level of employment and energy requirements at Alaska Pulp Company ("APC") will remain similar to the levels experienced during the last three years. 1993 Update of Electric Resource Evaluation and Strategic Plan Page 3 The results of the forecast indicate significant load growth is likely in Sitka over the next 20 years but at a pace that is slower than that projected two years ago. Tequirements are projected to increase at 3.2% annually between 1990_and 1995 and at 22% annually between 1990 and 2010 in the medium case scenario. This contrasts with the energy requirements growth of 3.8% and 2.9% for these two time periods projected in 1991. Retail peak demand is now projected to increase to 25.5 MW in 2010 in the medium case compared with 32.8 MW in the 1991 load forecast. The high and low case scenarios indicate similar downward Residential electric space heated houses will increase based on a 80%, 100% or 40% penetration rates in the medium, high and low case scenarios, respectively, which is no change from the assumptions made previously. Inflation at 4%, 5% and 2% annually in the medium, high and low cases, respectively, down from the previous assumptions. Future system energy losses of 10%, 12% and 8% annually in the medium, high and low growth scenarios, respectively, which is higher than in previous forecasts but consistent with the variability witnessed during the last three years. Future system annual load factors of 60%, 56% and 64% in the medium, high and low growth scenarios, respectively, which is again higher than in previous forecasts and is consistent with the variability witnessed during the last three years. This results in significantly lower projected peak demand requirements for Sitka compared with those made in prior load forecast. revised expectations now compared with the 1991 load forecast. Although a number of factors are responsible for these changes, the following factors account for a significant portion of these revisions: . Commercial load growth is now projected at about half the level previously projected. Although a number of factors account for the changed expectations, the future of fish processing in Sitka has been significantly reduced and the resulting energy requirements adjusted downward. Inflation is now projected to increase at lower levels. This results in less significant decreases in real electricity rates than previously estimated, given Sitka’s assumption that no new rate increases will be needed until new resources are added to the system. Page + Total energy 1993 Update of Electric Resource Evaluation and Strategic Plan . Energy sales to residential, commercial and public authority customers have not increased as rapidly as projected during the last three years, primarily because of slower customer growth along with a lower average commercial customer usage level. This affects the statistical relationships in the econometric model and results in lower customer growth projections for the same assumed level of population and employment growth. . The annual system load factor has increased significantly since the large economy energy sales to APC ended in 1989. This change of assumption results in lower peak demand requirements on the system than previously projected. The updated load forecast for the medium, high and low load growth scenarios is included in Appendix 1. The following table contains a summary of the updated projected peak and energy requirements for the City: Table 2-1 Updated Load Forecast Peak Requirements (MW) Energy Requirements Medium _High Low Medium High Low 1992 (actual) .... 16.6 16.6 16.6 97,097 97,097 97,097 1993 18.1 20.1 16.1 100,009 =: 104,780 93,488 1995 19.0 22.0 16.4 104,982 113,871 94,918 2000 215 27.0 17.0 117,958 138,246 98,233 2010 255 39.3 178 138,973 198,624 102,893 Average Annual Increase: 1993-1995 ....... 45% 0.8% 25% 43% 0.8% 1995-2000 . . = 4.2% 0.7% 24% 4.0% 0.7% 2000-2010 ....... : 3.8% 05% 1.7% 3.7% 05% 1993-2010 ....... 2.0% 4.0% 0.6% 20% 3.8% 0.6% For the purpose of this study, the load forecast was extended to the year 2015 based on the average annual increase of the last five years of the forecast. In 1992, energy sales to residential, commercial, public authority and boat customer classes represented 45%, 33%, 20% and 2%, respectively, of total retail energy sales. Approximately 5,130 MWh of energy was sold to APC in 1992 and energy losses represented 9.8% of total energy requirements. Between 1980 and 1992, total annual energy sales increased an average of 5.5% per year, so the updated forecast indicates a significant decline in the rate of increase in electric loads than what was experienced in the 1980s. Figure 2-1 shows the historical and forecasted total energy sales for 1993 Update of Electne Resource Evaluation and Strategic Plan Page 5 the City’s electric system. It should be noted that total retail sales exclude sales to APC, which are identified separately in Figure 2-1. Figure 2-1 Historical and Projected Total Energy Sales Sitka Electric Department Historical and Projected Energy Sales Megawatt-hours (Thousands) Medium Growth Scenano o+r — . An an 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 19% 1999 2002-2005 2008 Fiscal Year —— Residential —— Total Retail += Total with APC The number of electric customers served by the City increased steadily throughout the 1980s. In addition, the average amount of electricity used per residential customer has continued to increase, which accounts for a portion of the increase in total energy sales the City experienced in the 1980s. This increase in usage per residential customer can be attributed partly to decreasing electricity prices. Figure 2-2 shows the City’s average energy usage per residential customer as compared to the cost of power. 1993 Update of Electric Resource Pageo Evaluation and Strategic Plan TPA-VA 2/19/93 4:25 PM FISCAL YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 190-95: 195-00: 100-10: 10-2010: MEDIUM CASE RESIDENTIAL 34,373,267 34,935,593 37,451,051 38,752,672 39,937,674 41,104,686 42,253,038 43,389,909 44,521, 181 45,350,967 46,171,094 46,984,903 47,795,119 48,603,976 49,413,305 50,224,620 51,039,175 51,858,014 52,682,013 53,511,912 54,348,339 26,398,742 27,121,821 26,958,569 27,715,939 28,221,715 28,740,969 29,274,137 29,821,673 30,384,045 30,926,625 32,257,495 32,827,539 33,411,654 34,010,250 34,623,745 35,252,575 35,997, 187 36,658,541 37,336,618 38,031,907 38,744,916 COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES: W. Beck and Assoclates PUBLIC AUTHORITY 15,024,583 15,235, 263 16,561,759 16,830,017 17, 130,465 17,740,895 18, 104, 704 18,442, 120 18, 782, 405 19,054,701 19,821, 248 20, 165,504 20,456, 804 20,744,849 21,036,309 21,632, 132 21,978,055 22,295,155 22,612,710 22,934,635 23,261,516 TABLE B-1 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS ENERGY SALES AND REQUIREMENTS (kWh) BOATS 1,141,738 1,263,561 1,498,453 1,709,837 1,801,983 1,897,422 1,996,388 2,326,504 2,646,838 2,886,608 2,912,416 2,943,427 2,979,062 3,018,842 3,062,370 3,109,313 3,289,790 3,456,889 3,612,294 3,664,477 3,720,534 TOTAL RETAIL SALES 76,938,330 78,556,238 82,469,832 85,008, 466 87,091,837 89,483,971 91,628,267 93,980,207 96,334,470 98,218,901 101, 162,253 102,921,372 104 , 642,639 106,377,916 108, 135,729 110,218,640 112,304,207 114,268,600 116,243,635 118,142,931 120,075,305 4,905,600 5, 737,400 5,132,400 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 TOTAL LOSSES/ SYSTEM SALES SYSTEM OWN USE 81,843,930 7,947,370 84,293,638 11,840, 182 87,602, 232 9,495,128 90,008, 466 10,000,941 92,091,837 10,232,426 94,483,971 10,498,219 96,628, 267 10,736,474 98,980, 207 10,997,801 101,334,470 11,259,386 103,218,901 11,468,767 106, 162, 253 11,795,806 107,921,372 11,991,266 109,642, 639 12,182,515 111,377,916 12,375,324 113,135,729 12,570,637 115,218,640 12,802,071 117,304,207 13,033,801 119,268, 600 13,252,067 121,263,635 13,471,515 123,142,931 13,682,548 125,075,305 13,897,256 2.91% 5.73% 2.36% 2.36% 1.65% 1.65% 2.14% 2.83% 1993 Load Forecast Update TOTAL REQUIREMENTS 89,791,300 96,133,820 97,097, 360 100,009, 406 102,324, 264 104,982, 190 107,364,741 109,978,007 112,593,856 114,687, 668 117,958,059 119,912, 635, 121,825, 155, 123,753,240 125,706, 365 128,020,711 130,338,007 132,520,656 134,715, 150 136,825,479 138,972,562 Page 1 of 5 LOSSES AS % GE N 9% 3% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -0% «0% 0% PEAK DEMAND (kW) LOAD FACTOR WS-1521-HAI-AE TKA-1A Page 2 of 5 12/19/93 TABLE B-1 14:25 PM SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS MEDIUM CASE NUMBER OF CUSTOMER ACCOUNTS USAGE (KWh) PER CUSTOMER ACCOUNT FISCAL PUBLIC PUBLIC ALL YEAR RES COMM. AUTHOR. BOATS TOTAL RES COMM. AUTHOR. BOATS CUSTOMERS 1990 2,898 417 160 535 4,011 11,861 63,268 93,708 2,134 20,407 1991 2,952 425 154 556 4,087 11,835 63,766 99,253 2,272 20,626 1992 2,990 431 156 590 4,166 12,526 62,585 106,108 2,540 21,026 1993 3,035 441 159 602 ~ 4,236 12,768 62,887 106,084 2,841 21,248 1994 3,078 450 161 613 4,303 12,976 62,664 106, 233 2,938 21,403 1995 3,119 460 164 625 4,367 13,180 62,523 108,240 3,038 21,636 1996 3,158 469 167 636 4,429 13,379 62,461 108,674 3,141 21,817 1997 3,197 477 169 716 4,559 13,574 62,471 108,910 3,248 21,709 1998 3,234 486 172 788 4,680 13,767 62,550 109,126 3,359 21,654 1999 3,271 494 175 851 4,791 13,866 62,624 108,919 3,391 21,546 2000 3,307 502 178 851 4,837 13,962 64,302 111,469 3,423 21,947 2001 3,343 509 181 852 4,885 14,056 64,470 111,572 3,455 22,095 2002 3,378 516 184 854 4,933 14,147 64,693 111,354 3,488 22,228 2003 3,414 523 187 857 4,982 14,236 64,969 111,097 3,521 22,358 2004 3,450 530 190 862 5,031 14,324 65,295 110,837 3,554 22,486 2005 3,485 537 193 867 5,082 14,410 65,670 112,134 3,588 22,674 2006 3,521 543 196 908 5,169 14,495 66,276 112,085 3,622 22,696 2007 3,557 549 199 945 5,251 14,579 66,742 111,864 3,656 22,713 2008 3,593 555 203 979 5,330 14,662 67,253 111,624 3,691 22,749 2009 3,630 561 206 983 5,380 14,743 67,806 111,383 3,726 22,890 2010 3,666 566 209 989 5,431 14,824 68,402 111,144 3,761 23,030 COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES: COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES 990-95; 1.48% = 1.96% 0.44% 3.15% 1.72% 2.13% -0.24% 2.93% 7.32% 1.18% 995-00: 1.18% = 1.76% 1.64% 6.38% 2.07% 1.16% 0.56% 0.59% 2.41% 0.29% 600-10; 1.04% 1.22% 1.64% 1.52% 1.16% 0.60% 0.62% -0.03% 0.95% 0.48% yu- 2010: 1.18% 1.54% 1.34% 3.12% 1.53% 1.12% 0.39% 0.86% 2.87% 0.61% 4 \W. Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-NA1-AE KA-VA (19/93 125 PM FISCAL YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0-95; 5-00: 30-10: » 2010: MEDIUM CASE NOMINAL COST OF ELECTRICITY (CENTS/KWH - NOMINAL) TABLE B-1 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PSSP CC PMMNNNARARRRONG ~_ wu COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES: COMM. WC OBBBBOMDOBMO~ SBN Roo oY WNROGSISSISIAG ‘o > ° 9.87 10.27 10.68 11.10 11.55 12.01 12.49 12.99 PUBLIC AUTHOR. BOATS OVERALL AVERAGE 0 @ MW ONNNNNNANNAN WORNODDRARAABNN OF ONMSP RSS LS SENAY 9.67 PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS REAL COST OF ELECTRICITY Page 3 of 5 (CENTS/KWH - CONSTANT 1990 DOLLARS) PUBLIC AUTHOR. See no RO NRYUNRNNNNNNNNNNOSBUROHRND ARAKRARKHHHRARHAHHOKRKRONNOOOD BOATS WW. Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast cPl | RES COMM. 125.2 7.14 8.29 130.0 7.32 8.37 134.0 6.89 8.11 139.4 6.19 7.29 144.9 5.95 7.01 150.7 5.72 6.74 156.8 5.50 6.48 163.0 5.29 6.23 169.6 5.09 5.99 176.3 5.09 5.99 183.4 5.09 5.99 190.7 5.09 5.99 198.4 5.09 5.99 206.3 5.09 5.99 214.5 5.09 5.99 223.1 5.09 5.99 232.0 5.09 5.99 241.3 5.09 5.99 251.0 5.09 5.99 261.0 5.09 5.99 271.5 5.09 5.99 3.78% 4.32% -4.07% 4.00% 2.33% -2.33% 4.00% -0.00% -0.00% 3.95% -1.68% 71.61% Update onw VRUUUVVUNBUUUUUUNARR®NAN OVERALL AVERAGE 199% "2.33% -00% 359% i af] "1 W 1 INCREMENTAL POWER COST +85 200. VW. «72 71 67 +61 27 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 87 83 03 91 81 76 70 WS-1521-HAI-AE who VA Page 4 of 5 JN9/93 TABLE B-1 225 PM " SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC DATA PROJECTIONS MEDIUM CASE ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC DATA -- ADJUSTED TO FISCAL YEARS FISCAL = TOTAL NAWS RES ELEC HEAT ANNUAL HOME HEATING PER CAPITA REAL PER FISH FERRY YEAR PoP EMPLOYMENT SATURATION HOD OIL PR. REAL CPI INCOME CAP. INCOME PROCESSED VISTORS 1990 8,436 4,041 i 19.1% 6,794 45.00 125.2 22,037 23,585 25,150 20,263 1991 8,620 4,040 20.6% 7,439 0.00 130.0 22,943 23,649 24,527 22,074 1992 8,685 4,015 * 21.6% 6,761 0.00 134.0 23,861 23,861 24,463 21,922 1993 8,750 4,045 21.8% 7,200 - 94.82 139.4 26,825 24,099 24,708 23,018 1994 8,816 4,076 22.7% 7,200 94.82 144.9 28,177 24,340 24,955 24,169 1995 8,882 4,106 23.4% 7,200 94.82 150.7 29,597 24,584 25,204 25,377 1996 8,948 4,137 24.1% 7,200 94.82 156.8 31,089 24,829 25,456 26,646 1997 9,015 4,168 24.8% 7,200 94.82 163.0 32,655 25,078 25,711 27,979 1998 9,083 4,199 25.4% 7,200 94.82 169.6 34,301 25,328 25,968 29,378 1999 9,151 4,231 26.0% 7,200 94.82 176.3 36,030 25,582 26,228 30,846 2000 9,220 4,263 26.6% 7,200 94.82 183.4 37,846 25,838 26,490 32,389 2001 9,289 4,295 27.2% 7,200 94.82 190.7 39,753 26,096 26,755 34,008 2002 9,359 4,327 27.8% 7,200 94.82 198.4 41,757 26,357 27,022 35,709 2003 9,429 4,359 28.3% 7,200 94.82 206.3 43,861 26,620 27,293 37,494 2004 9,500 4,392 28.8% 7,200 94.82 214.5 46,072 26,887 27,566 39,369 2005 9,571 4,425 29.4% 7,200 94.82 223.1 48,394 27,156 27,841 41,337 2006 9,643 4,458 29.9% 7,200 94.82 232.0 50,833 27,427 28,120 43,404 2007 9,715 4,492 30.4% 7,200 94.82 241.3 53,395 27,701 28,401 45,574 2008 9,788 4,525 30.9% 7,200 94.82 251.0 56,086 27,978 28,685 47,853 2009 9,861 4,559 31.4% 7,200 94.82 261.0 58,913 28,258 28,972 50,246 2010 9,935 4,593 31.9% 7,200 94.82 271.5 61,882 28,541 29,261 52,758 WU-9S: 0.75% 0.32% 4.15% 16.07% 3.78% 6.08% 1.00% 0.04% 4.60% 95-00: 0.75% 0.75% 2.61% 0.00% 4.00% 5.04% 1.00% 1.00% 5.00% 00-10; 0.75% 0.75% 1.81% 0.00% 4.00% 5.04% 1.00% 1.00% 5.00% 02010: 0.82% 0.64% 2.59% 3.80% 3.95% 5.30% 0.96% 0.76% 4.90% W. Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HAI-AE A-lA eb-93 25 PM Medium Case Assumptions: Page 5 of 5 Annual Population and Employment Growth Rates: 1990-94: 0.75% 1995-99: 0.75% 2000-10: 0.75% Rate of Inflation 1990-94: 4.00% 1995-99: 4.00% 2000-10: 4.00% Annual Electric Rate Increases (Potential Nominal) 0.00% Average Rate Adjustment with Current Resources 4.00% Average Rate Adjustment with New Resources 0.00% Incremental Rate Factor 0.00% Sensitivity Analysis Rate Adjustment Factor Annual Per Capita Income Growth (Real) 1990-94: 1.00% 1995-99: 1.00% 2000-10: 1.00% Other Input Assumptions : 1.00% Fish Growth Rate 5.00% Ferry Visitors Growth Rate ON 114,604,000 Maximum Resource 111,604,000 10.00% Losses 60.0% Load Factor 5,000,000 APC Sales 80.0% All Electric Penetration Level Ww. Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HA1-AE A-1A Page 1 of 5 19/93 TABLE B-2 26 PM SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS HIGH CASE ENERGY SALES AND REQUIREMENTS (kWh) eee nan sana ccs co cenen aces eees coeceeeeaas dhe aacbcasces == a= = san ccemanis sam sa=ssnase aes cls PEAK FISCAL PUBLIC TOTAL TOTAL LOSSES/ TOTAL LOSSES DEMAND LOAD YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL AUTHORITY BOATS RETAIL SALES A.P.C. SYSTEM SALES SYSTEM OWN USE REQUIREMENTS AS % GEN (kW) FACTOR 1990 34,373,267 26,398,742 15,024,583 1,141,738 76,938,330 4,905,600 81,843,930 7,947,370 89,791,300 8.9% 16,785 57.7% 1991 34,935,593 27,121,821 15,235,263 1,263,561 78,556,238 5,737,400 84,293,638 11,840,162 96,133,820 12.3% 17,670 58.4% 1992 37,451,051 26,958,569 16,561,759 1,498,453 82,469,832 5,132,400 87,602,232 9,495,128 97,097,360 9.8% 16,557 63.4% 1993 39,263,499 28,121,301 17,099,029 1,722,695 86,206,525 6,000,000 92,206,525 12,573,617 104,780,142 12.0% 20,136 56.0% 1994 40,840,653 29,356,650 17,721,032 1,848,957 89,767,293 6,000,000 95,767,293 13,059,176 108,826,469 12.0% 20,961 56.0% 1995 42,586,317 30,656,156 18,978,757 1,985,153 94,206,383 6,000,000 100,206,383 13,664,507 113,870,890 12.0% 21,989 56.0% 1996 44,034,380 31,980,091 19,692,103 2,069,213 97,775,788 6,000,000 103,775,788 14,151,244 117,927,031 12.0% 22,816 56.0% 1997 45,520,054 34,244,951 20,354,853 2,484,462 102,604,320 6,000,000 108,604,320 14,809,680 123,414,000 12.0% 23,935 56.0% 1998 47,062,132 35,706,248 21,034,280 2,876,158 106,658,817 6,000,000 112,658,817 15,362,566 128,021,383 12.0% 24,874 56.0% 1999 48,599,971 37,240,707 21,740,366 2,951,430 110,532,474 6,000,000 116,532,474 15,890,792 132,423,266 12.0% 25,771 56.0% 2000 50,193,359 38,852,242 23,575,603 3,035,283 115,656,486 6,000,000 121,656,486 16,589,521 138,246,007 12.0% 26,958 56.0% 2001 51,822,411 40,544,986 24,527,094 3,127,338 120,021,828 6,000,000 126,021,828 17,184,795 143,206,623 12.0% 27,969 56.0% 2002 53,487,499 42,323,300 25,396,217 3,227,321 124,434,337 6,000,000 130,434,337 17,786,500 148,220,837 12.0% 28,992 56.0% 2003 55,189,195 45,066,791 26,287,251 3,335,042 129,878,278 6,000,000 135,878,278 18,528,856 154,407,134 12.0% 30,253 56.0% 2004 56,928,222 47,032,323 27,214,858 3,450,385 134,625,788 6,000,000 140,625,788 19,176,244 159,802,032 12.0% 31,352 56.0% 2005 58,705,434 49,098,054 28,782,554 3,573,291 140,159,333 6,000,000 146,159,333 19,930,818 166,090,151 12.0% 32,634 56.0% 2006 60,521,778 51,269,409 29,901,138 4,036,802 145,729,128 6,000,000 151,729,128 20,690,336 172,419,463 12.0% 33,924 56.0% 2007 62,378,288 53,552,121 31,006,381 4,474,841 151,411,631 6,000,000 157,411,631 21,465,222 178,876,853 12.0% 35,241 56.0% 2008 64,276,063 55,952,243 32,153,605 4,587,926 156,969,838 6,000,000 162,969,838 22,223,160 185,192,998 12.0% 36,528 56.0% 2009 66,216,259 58,476,172 33,351,706 4,714,507 162,758,644 6,000,000 168,758,644 23,012,542 191,771, 186 12.0% 37,869 56.0% 2010 68,200,082 61,130,664 34,604,099 4,853,884 168,788,729 6,000,000 174,788,729 23,834,827 198,623,556 12.0% 39,266 56.0% COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES: 0-95: 4.38% 3.04% 4.78% 11.70% 4.13% 4% 4.13% 11.45% 4.87% 5.55% ‘5-00: 3.34% 4.85% 4.43% 8.86% 4.19% 0.00% 3.96% 3.96% 3.96% 4.16% 10-10: 3.11% 4.64% 3.91% 4.81% 3.85% 0.00% 3.69% 3.69% 3.69% 3.83% 12010: 3.49% 4.29% 4.26% \ 7.50% 4.01% 1.01% _ 3.87% 5.65% 4.05% 4.34% . Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HAL-AE KA-1A Page 2 of 5 2/19/93 TABLE B-2 1:26 PM SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS HIGH CASE NUMBER OF CUSTOMER ACCOUNTS USAGE (KWh) PER CUSTOMER ACCOUNT FISCAL PUBLIC PUBLIC ALL YEAR RES COMM. AUTHOR. BOATS TOTAL RES COMM. AUTHOR. BOATS — CUSTOMERS 1990 2,898 417 160 535 4,011 11,861 63,268 = 93, 708 2,134 20,407 1991 2,952 425 154 556 4,087 11,835 63,766 99,253 2,272 20,626 1992 2,990 431 156 590 4,166 12,526 62,585 106, 108 21540 21,026 1993 3,041 441 161 603 4,265 12,912 63,792 106, 367 2,858 21,720 1994 3,095 451 166 616 4,327 13,197 65,138 107,032 3,001 22,132 1995 3,151 460 171 630 4,412 13,516 66,597 111,297 3,150 22,713 1996 3,209 470 176 645 4,499 13,722 68,079 = 112, 124 3,210 23,066 1997 3,269 479 181 760 4,689 13,923 71,498 = -:112,529 3,271 23,163 1998 3,332 488 186 863 4,869 14,120 73,172 112,905 3,333 23,139 1999 3,395 497 192 869 4,953 14,313 74,961 113,303 3,396 23,526 2000 3,461 505. «198 877 5,041 14,502 76,868 119,297 3,460 24,131 2001 3,529 514 204 887 5,133 14,687. 78,896 120,504 3,526 24,551 2002 3,598 522 210 898 5,228 14,867 81,049 = 121, 148 3,593 24,950 2003 3,668 530 216 911 5,326 15,045 84,980 121,754 3,661 25,514 2004 3,741 538 222 925 5,426 15,219 87,372 122,387 3,730 25,916 2005 3,815 546 229 940 5,530 : 15,390 89,902 125,675 3,801 26,431 2006 3,890 554 236 1,042 5,722 15,558 92,574 126,764 3,873 26,516 2007 3,967 561 243 1,134 5,906 15,724 95,394 127,629 3,946 26,655 2008 4,046 569 250 1,141 6,006 15,887 98,366 128,505 4,021 27,134 2009 4,126 576 258 1,151 6,111 16,047 101,496 129,419 4,097 27,616 2010 4,208 583 265 1, 163 6,220 16,208 104,792 130,376 4,175 28,101 COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES: COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES: 90-95: 1.69% 1.98% 1.24% 3.33% 1.93% 2.65% 1.03% 3.50% 8.10% 2.16% 95-00: 1.90% 1.89% 2.99% 6.84% 2.70% 1.42% 2.91% 1.40% 1.89% 1.22% (00-10: 1.97% 1.44% 2.99% 2.86% 2.12% 1.12% 3.15% 0.89% 1.89% 1.53% u 2010: 1.88% 1.69% 2.55% 3.96% 2.22% 1.57% 2.56% 1.66% 3.41% 1.61% W. Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HA1-AE CAVA 419/93 226 PM FISCAL YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10-953 5-00: 30-10: We 2010: HIGH CASE FUWWN HOOD DBOBNYVNAORONG n + TABLE B-2 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS NOMINAL COST OF ELECTRICITY COBB RBBoOoan Wousnonunnn SR28s=a2an0 ° © oa 10.35 10.87 11.42 11.99 12.59 13.21 13.88 14.57 15.30 16.06 16.87 (CENTS/KWH - NOMINAL) PUBLIC AUTHOR. COMPOUNDED GROWTH RATES: Beck and Associates BOATS OVERALL AVERAGE Page 3 of 5 REAL COST OF ELECTRICITY (CENTS/KWH - CONSTANT 1990 DOLLARS) cPL RES COMM 125.2 7.14 8.29 130.0 7.32 8.37 134.0 6.89 8.11 140.7 6.13 7.22 147.7 5.84 6.88 155.1 5.56 6.55 162.9 5.56 6.55 171.0 5.56 6.55 179.6 5.56 6.55 188.6 5.56 6.55 198.0 5.56 6.55 207.9 5.56 6.55 218.3 5.56 » 6.55 229.2 5.56 6.55 240.6 5.56 6.55 252.7 5.56 6.55 265.3 5.56 6.55 278.6 5.56 6.55 292.5 5.56 6.55 307.1 5.56 6.55 322.5 5.56 6.55 4.38% -4.87% -4.61% 5.00% -0.00% -0.00% 5.00% -0.00% 0.00% 4.84% 71.24% 71.17% 1993 Load Forecast Update PUBLIC AUTHOR. AARHKRAKRHOKRHARKRRKRRONNOOOD ARARHRAPAKOAAHAAKAAAROWNWO DBOBBBDOROBSSBBBRBBONVNORN BOATS OVERALL AVERAGE Buu nono OOON HARRAH HHHRRAOKRRHRRORONNN NNSA NNN NNN NSN DOR OD “4.54% -0.00% 0.00% 71.15% INCREMENTAL POWER COST ARHKRKRARHAHRARRARKON] 43 +34 +38 61 -82 +62 70 .76 66 -70 65 -63 -61 61 61 +60 WS-1521-HAI-AE KATA 119/93 :26 PM HIGH CASE TABLE B-2 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC DATA PROJECTIONS ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC DATA -- ADJUSTED TO FISCAL YEARS FISCAL TOTAL NAWS RES ELEC HEAT ANNUAL YEAR POP EMPLOYMENT SATURATION HOD 1990 8,436 4,041 19.1% 5,794 1991 8,620 4,040 20.6% 7,439 1992 8,685 4,015 21.6% 6,761 1993 8,815 4,076 22.9% 7,200 1994 8,947 4,137 26.2% 7,200 1995 9,082 4,199 25.6% 7,200 1996 9,218 4,262 26.9% 7,200 1997 9,356 4,326 28.3% 7,200 1998 9,496 4,391 29.6% 7,200 1999 9,639 4,456 31.0% 7,200 2000 9, 783 4,523 32.3% 7,200 2001 9,930 4,591 33.6% 7,200 2002 10,079 4,660 34.8% 7,200 2003 10,230 4,730 36.1% 7,200 2004 10,384 4,801 37.3% 7,200 2005 10,540 4,873 38.5% 7,200 2006 10,698 4,946 39.7% 7,200 2007 10,858 5,020 40.9% 7,200 2008 11,021 5,095 42.1% 7,200 2009 11,186 5,172 43.2% 7,200 2010 11,354 5,249 44.3% 7,200 HOME HEAT OIL PR. R ING EAL Page 4 of 5 PER CAPITA REAL PER FISH cPl INCOME CAP. INCOME PROCESSED 125.2 22,037 23,585 25,150 130.0 22,943 23,649 24,527 134.0 23,861 23,861 26,463 140.7 27,351 24,338 25,686 147.7 29,293 24,825 26,970 155.1 31,373 25,321 28,319 162.9 33,600 25,827 29,735 171.0 35,986 26,344 31,222 179.6 38,541 26,871 32,783 188.6 41,277 27,408 34,422 198.0 44,208 27,956 36,143 207.9 47,346 28,516 37,950 218.3 50,708 29,086 39, B48 229.2 54,308 29,668 41,840 240.6 58, 164 30,261 43,932 252.7 62,294 30,865 46,129 265.3 66,717 31,484 48,435 278.6 71,453 32,113 50,857 292.5 76,527 32,755 53,400 307.1 81,960 33,411 56,070 322.5 87,779 34,079 58,873 FERRY VISTORS 90-95: 1.50% 95-00: 1.50% 00-10: 1.50% 0- 2010; 1.50% W. Beck and Associates 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 4.38% 7.32% 2.00% 5.00% 7.10% 2.00% 5.00% 7.10% 2.00% 4.84% 7.16% 1.86% 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HAI-AE cAv1A ‘eb-93 126 PM High Case Assumptions: Page 5 of 5 Annual Population and Employment Growth Rates: 1990-94: 1.50% 1995-99: 1.50% 2000-10: 1.50% Rate of Inflation 1990-94: 5.00% 1995-99: 5.00% 2000-10: 5.00% Annual Electric Rate Increases (Potential Nominal) 0.00% Average Rate Adjustment with Current Resources 5.00% Average 0.00% Incremental Rate Factor 0.00% Sensitivity Analysis Rate Adjustment Factor Annual Per Capita Income Growth (Real) 1990-94: 2.00% 1995-99: 2.00% 2000-10: 2.00% Other Input Assumptions : 5.00% Fish Growth Rate 7.00% Ferry Visitors Growth Rate ON 114,604,000 Maximum Resource 112,604,000 12.00% Losses 56.0% Load Factor 6,000,000 APC Sales 100.0% All Electric Penetration Level W. Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HAI-AE TKA-1A 2/19/93 4:26 PM FISCAL YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 790-95: 995-00: 000-10: 70-2010: W. Beck and Associates LOW CASE TABLE B-3 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS ENERGY SALES AND REQUIREMENTS (kWh) RESIDENTIAL 34,373,267 34,935,593 37,451,051 37,897, 153 38,641,637 39, 284,639 39,873,917 40,419,849 40,930,984 41,414,343 41,875,672 42,319,669 42,750, 162 43,170,273 43,582,543 43,989,038 44,391,439 44,791,115 45,189,177 45,586,532 45,983,919 26,398, 742 27,121,821 26,958,569 26,965,977 26,863,018 26,764,627 26,670,732 26,581, 266 26,496, 161 26,415,351 26,338,772 26, 266,362 26,198,058 26, 133,800 26,073,532 26,017,194 25,964,732 25,916,092 25,871,218 25,830,061 25,792,570 PUBLIC AUTHORITY 15,024,583 15,235,263 16,561,759 16,458,070 16,457,992 16,472,008 16, 488,599 16 506, 272 16,526,833 16,544,262 16,564,558 16,585,727 16,607,774 16,630,702 16,654,519 16,679,228 16,704 , 836 16,731,347 16,758,769 16,787, 107 16,816,366 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES: TOTAL BOATS RETAIL SALES 1,141,738 1,263,561 1,498, 453 1,687, 767 1,745,871 1,802,903 1,859,048 2,064,668 2,255,458 2,431,937 2,595,095 2,630,510 2,669, 147 2,710,721 2,754,997 2,801,778 2,850,898 2,902,221 2,955,633 3,011,040 3,068,364 76,938,330 78,556,238 82,469,832 83,008,967 83,708,518 84,324,176 84,892,297 85,572,056 86,207,437 86,805 , 893 87,374,098 87,802,268 88,225, 140 88,645,497 89,065,591 89, 487,238 89,911,906 90,340,775 90,774,798 91,214,740 91,661,219 4,905,600 5,737,400 5,132,400 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 TOTAL LOSSES/ SYSTEH SALES SYSTEM OWN USE 81,843,930 7,947,370 84,293,638 11,840, 182 87,602,232 9,495,128 86,008,967 7,479,041 86,708,518 7,539,871 87,324,176 7,593,407 87,892,297 7,642,808 88,572,056 7,701,918 89,207,437 7,757,168 89,805,893 7,809,208 90,374,098 7,858,617 90,802,268 7,895,849 91,225,140 7,932,621 91,645,497 7,969,174 92,065,591 8,005,704 92,487,238 8,042,369 92,911,906 8,079,296 93,340,775 8,116,589 93,774,798 8,154,330 94,214,740 8,192,586 94,661,219 8,231,410 1.30% 0.91% 0.69% 0.69% 0.46% 0.46% 0.73% 0.18% 1993 Load Forecast Update TOTAL REQUIREMENTS 89,791,300 96, 133,820 97,097, 360 93,488,007 94,248, 389 94,917,583 95,535, 106 96, 273,974 96,964,606 97,615, 101 98,232,716 98,698, 117 99,157,761 99,614,671 100,071,294 100,529,606 100,991, 202 101,457,364 101,929,128 102, 407,326 102,892,630 Page 1 of 5 LOSSES AS % GE POR MMBBROMBDMDMOOBMMRMMOONO N 19% 3% 8% -0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% «0X 0% 0% -0% 0% 0% 0% 0% PEAK DEMAND LOAD (kW) FACTOR 16,785 57 7% 17,670 58.4% 16,557 63.4% 16,140 64.0% 16,276 64.0% 16,395 64.0% 16,505 64.0% 16,637 64.0% 16,760 64.0% 16,876 64.0% 16,986 64.0% 17,069 64.0% 17,151 64.0% 17,233 64.0% 17,314 64.0% 17,396 64.0% 17,478 64.0% 17,562 64.0% 17,646 64.0% 17,731 64.0% 17,818 64.0% 0.47% 0.71% 0.48% 0.30% WS-1521-HAI-AE LTKA*TA (12/19793 04:26 PM FISCAL YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1770-95; 1995-00: 2000-10: 770-2010: . W. Beck and Associates LOW CASE 1.34% 0.70% 0.41% 0.72% NUMBER OF CUSTOMER ACCOUNTS PUBLIC AUTHOR. TABLE B-3 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS PUBLIC AUTHOR. 55,807 101,915 54,714 101,278 53,703 100,650 52,769 100,031 51,904 99,421 51,102 98,820 50,359 98,227 49,669 97,643 49,029 97,068 48,434 96,501 47,880 95,942 47,366 95,391 46,888 94,848 46,443 94,314 71.63% 1.95% “1.97% -0.63% 71.27% -0.59% “1.53% 0.03% 1993 Load Forecast Update Page 2 of 5 USAGE (KWh) PER CUSTOMER ACCOUNT ALL CUSTOMERS WS-1521-HAI-AE TABLE B-3 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT PROJECTED OPERATING RESULTS NOMINAL COST OF ELECTRICITY (CENTS/KWH - NOMINAL) BOATS OVERALL AVERAGE Page 3 of 5 REAL COST OF ELECTRICITY (CENTS/KWH - CONSTANT 1990 DOLLARS) wen eee eee ce cee cece een w mewn emcees eenee Pea wcccncnccccccccccnce PUBLIC AUTHOR. MUNUMUARRAARRONNNNN OOD RUBVOOANWRANDO]=NRUNWO NWRUABONUNNORNSHNOROBRN BOATS 12 12. 10. 10. NNNNNN®OPMRODMMDDDDO 16 09 97 05 85 -66 47 +29 10 93 05 58 4d +25 -08 93 77 62 47 32 18 KA-1A JN9/93 226 PM LOW CASE FISCAL PUBLIC YEAR RES COMM. AUTHOR. 1990 6.67 7.75 7.49 1991 7.11 8.12 8.09 1992 6.89 8.11 8.28 1993 6.89 8.11 8.28 1994 6.89 8.11 8.28 1995 6.89 8.11 8.28 1996 6.89 8.11 8.28 1997 6.89 8.11 8.28 1998 6.89 8.11 8.28 1999 6.89 8.11 8.28 2000 6.89 8.11 8.28 2001 6.89 8.11 8.28 2002 6.89 8.11 8.28 2003 6.89 8.11 8.28 2004 6.89 8.11 8.28 2005 6.89 8.11 8.28 2006 6.89 8.11 8.28 2007 6.89 8.11 8.28 2008 6.89 8.11 8.28 2009 6.89 8.11 8.28 2010 6.89 8.11 8.28 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES: ‘90-95: 0.65% 0.92% 2.03% 195-00: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100-10: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% '0-2010: 0.16% 0.23% 0.50% W. Beck and Associates cPl | RES COMM. 125.2 7.14 8.29 130.0 7.32 8.37 134.0 6.89 8.11 136.7 6.31 7.43 139.4 6.19 7.29 142.2 6.07 7.14 145.0 5.95 7.00 147.9 5.83 6.87 150.9 5.72 6.73 153.9 5.61 6.60 157.0 5.50 6.47 160.1 5.39 6.34 163.3 5.28 6.22 166.6 5.18 6.10 169.9 5.08 5.98 173.3 4.98 5.86 176.8 4.88 5.74 180.3 4.78 5.63 184.0 4.69 5.52 187.6 4.60 5.41 191.4 4.51 5.31 2.58% -3.20% 72.94% 2.00% 1.96% -1.96% 2.00% -1.96% 1.96% 2.14% *2.27% -2.21% 1993 Load Forecast Update OVERALL AVERAGE VUUVUUUVUUNUUARRRRAONNAN CHNMWHRUANDROHNWHRANDORON SOCOS=|=NWHRADBONRNOWHRORAD 72.86% 71.96% 71.96% -2.19% INCREMENTAL POWER COST 0.00 WS-1521-HAI-AE TABLE B-3 SITKA ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC DATA PROJECTIONS ECONOMIC & cece DATA -- ADJUSTED TO FISCAL YEARS Page 4 of 5 HOME HEAT OIL PR. R 94. 94. 94. 94. 94. 94. 94. 94 94. 94. 94 94 94 94. 94. 94. ING EAL +00 -00 -00 82 -82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 -82 82 82 82 -82 -82 82 82 82 FERRY VISTORS bA-TA 2119/93 +226 PM LOW CASE FISCAL TOTAL WAWS RES ELEC HEAT ANNUAL. YEAR POP EMPLOYMENT SATURATION HDD 1990 8,436 4,041 19.1% 6,794 1991 8,620 4,040 20.6% 7,439 1992 8,685 4,015 21.6% 6,761 1993 8,707 4,025 20.0% 7,200 1994 8,728 4,035 20.2% 7,200 1995 8,750 4,046 20.4% 7,200 1996 8,772 4,056 20.6% 7,200 1997 8,794 4,066 20.8% 7,200 1998 8,816 4,076 20.9% 7,200 1999 8,838 4,086 21.0% 7,200 2000 8,860 4,096 21.1% 7,200 2001 8, 882 4,107 21.2% 7,200 2002 8,904 4,117 21.3% 7,200 2003 8,927 4,127 21.4% 7,200 2004 8,949 4,137 21.5% 7,200 2005 8,971 4,148 21.5% 7,200 2006 8,994 4,158 21.6% 7,200 2007 9,016 4,169 21.7% 7,200 2008 9,039 4,179 21.7% 7,200 2009 9,061 4,189 21.8% 7,200 2010 9,084 4,200 21.9% 7,200 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES / AVERAGES 490-95: 0.25% 0.25% 1.37% 995-00: 0.25% 0.25% 0.65% 000-10: 0.25% 0.25% 0.36% j- 2010: 0.37% 0.19% 0.68% W. Beck and Associates PER CAPITA REAL PER FISH cpl INCOME CAP. INCOME PROCESSED | 125.2 22,037 23,585 25,150 130.0 22,943 23,649 24,527 134.0 23,861 23,861 246,463 136.7 26,179 23,980 23,484 139.4 26,836 24, 100 22,545 142.2 27,509 24,220 21,643 145.0 28,200 26,341 20,778 147.9 28,908 24,463 19,946 150.9 29,633 24,585 19,149 153.9 30,377 24,708 18,383 157.0 31,139 24 , 832 17,647 160.1 31,921 24,956 16,941 163.3 32,722 25,081 16,264 166.6 33,544 25,206 15,613 169.9 34,386 25,332 14,989 173.3 35,249 25,459 14,389 176.8 36,133 25,586 13,814 180.3 37,040 25,714 13,261 184.0 37,970 25,843 12,731 187.6 38,923 25,972 12,221 191.4 39,900 26,102 11,733 2.58% 4.54% 0.50% +2.96% 2.00% 2.51% 0.50% 4.00% 2.00% 2.51% 0.50% 4.00% 2.14% 3.01% 0.51% 3.74% 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HAT-AE TYA-1A -Feb-93 4:26 PM Low Case Assumptions: Page 5 of 5 Annual Population and Employment Growth Rates: 1990-94: 0.25% 1995-99: 0.25% 2000-10: 0.25% Rate of Inflation 1990-94: 2.00% 1995-99: 2.00% 2000-10: 2.00% Annual Electric Rate Increases (Potential Nominal) 0.00% Average Rate Adjustment with Currént Resources 2.00% Average Rate Adjustment with New Resources 0.00% Incremental Rate Factor 0.00% Sensitivity Analysis Rate Adjustment Factor Annual Per Capita Income Growth (Real) 1990-94: 0.50% 1995-99: 0.50% 2000-10: 0.50% Other Input Assumptions : -4.00% Fish Growth Rate 3.00% Ferry Visitors Growth Rate ON 114,604,000 Maximum Resource 113,404,000 8.00% Losses 64.0% Load Factor 3,000,000 APC Sales 40.0% All Electric Penetration Level W. Beck and Associates 1993 Load Forecast Update WS-1521-HAT-AE Tenakee Springs We were unable to locate a recent load forecast for Tenakee Springs. The 1987 Southeast Alaska Transmission Intertie Study by Harza Engineering contains low, medium, and high forecasts which are shown on the following pages. The Tenakee Springs Utility was similarly unaware of any recent forecasts and provided us with historical data which is summarized below and compared with the relevant years of the Harza forecasts. Tenakee Springs Historical Electric Load Data Prepared 1992 by Tenakee Springs Utility Recent Actual Harza Forecast Totals and Losses Energy Requirements Peak Load Total System Gener- Sales Losses ation Low Mid High MWh = MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh 1985-1993 average growth: 1987-2006 projected average growth: 4.7% -5.2% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.8%] 1.0% 2.4% 0.0375 Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-13 Tenakee Springs Energy Requirements actual and Harza (1987) projections 600 500 300 MWh 200 | 100 wo y Q = oa wo y a = oO wo o ao eo Qa QD Q Q a So ° So oa oa a a oa a a a o o So =- = =- - - - - = N Nn N Year Tenakee Springs Forecast: Excerpts No additional information is provided in the Harza document beyond that summarized above. Upper Southeast Electric Loads August 1995 page B-14 Appendix B: Map Model Input Assumptions ASSUMPTIONS FOR LONG-RUN ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS Institute of Social and Economic Research 1994 CHUGACH ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION STUDY BASE CASE (CE94B) LOW CASE (CES4L) June 1994 HIGH CASE (CES4H) A. PETROLEUM PRICE AND PRODUCTION ASSUMPTIONS (See attached analysis in another appendix) 1. Average Lower 48 North Slope Crude Price (1993 $) 2. Production Rising to $18 in 1998 and growing by .6% annually there- after, based on Alaska Department of Revenue Fail 1993 Scenario (DOR.F93M) Alaska Department of Revenue Mid-Case (DOR.F93M) B. BASIC INDUSTRY ASSUMPTIONS B.1. Petroleum 1. Trans-Alaska Pipeline 2. North Slope Petroleum Development and Production 3. Cook Inlet Petroleum Production Operating employment remains constant as high maintenance costs offset North Slope Production decline (Source: personal communication with Alyeska Pipeline Company] (TAP.S93M) Empioyment falls to 3.2 in 1995. It subsequently remains constant as marginal fields, requiring more labor, are brought into production and enhanced recovery methods continue to be applied at Prudhoe Bay (ONS.S94M) Employment in exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in the Cook Inlet area is at constant level of 1.2 thousand (OCI.S94M) Rising to $16 in 1998 and constant thereafter (DOR.F93L) Alaska Department of Revenue Low Case (DOR.F93L) Same as base Empiovment graduaily declines to 2.75 thousand in 2000 and subsequently remains constant at that level (ONS.S94L) Same as base Rising to $19 in 1998 and growing at 1.5% annuaily thereafter (DOR.F93H) Alaska Department of Revenue High Case (DOR.F93H) Same as base Employment increases through the 1990s and remains constant at 4.5 thousand after 2000 as marginai fields, requiring more labor, are brought into produc- tion and enhanced recovery methods continue to be applied at Prudhoe Bay (ONS.S94H) Additional discoveries boost employment in 1995 and beyond to 1.4 thousand (OCI.S94H) NOTE: Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for MAP Model SCEN_ case files, and codes in brackets indicate MAP variable names. These are the long-run assumptions. Values may differ in the initial forecast years to reflect short-term conditions. BASE CASE (CE94B) LOW CASE (CES4L) HIGH CASE (CES4H) CO er — — — — 4. Oil Industry Headquarters S. ANWR 6. OCS 7. TAGS Pipeline B.2. Mining 8. Beluga Coai Production 9. U.S. Borax Headquarters 9 empioyment in Anchorage and Fairbanks associated with additional development of North Slope and other fields increases 1 percent annually after failing in the mid- 1990s (OHQ.S94M) Exploration in ANWR_~ com- mences in 1998, but no com- mercial development occurs (OAW.S92M -3) None None None None After failing in the mid-1980s, employment holds constant at 4.5 thousand (OHQ.S94L) None None None None None After falling in the mid-1990s, employment grows 2 percent annuaily (OHQ.SS4H) Development of a major field in ANWR with production com- mencing after 2005 and reve- nues of $460 million to the state (nominal $) (OAW.S92H -6) Petroleum development offshore on federal lands in the Bering Sea and Arctic areas com- mences in the late 1990s (OCS.S92H -6) The “TAGS” pipeline to trans- port North Slope natural gas to market in Japan is constructed over a 6-year period. Construc- tion begins in 2004. Operations begin in 2009. The line extends from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez and includes compressor stations, conditioning facilities, and a liquefaction plant and marine terminal. Construction employ- ment peaks at 7,202. Opera- tions employment is 1,130. Construction and operations employment occurs all along the pipeline corridor. The pipeline produces $400 million (nominai $) in state revenue in first year of operation (TAG.S92M -2). Development of a 3.5 miilion ton/year mine for export beginning in 2000 results in employment of 375 in 1997 and beyond (MBC.S92M -3). The U.S. Borax molybdenum mine near Ketchikan is brought into production in 2001. Operat- ing employment is initially 685 and grows to 1,020 over the next 16 years. (Source: USDA Forest Service, Draft EIS, per- sonal communication with U.S. Forest Service & U.S. Borax personnel] (MBX.S92M -4). 2.20 institute of Sociai and Economic Researcn Page 2 June 1994 BASE CASE (CE94B) LOW CASE (CES4L) HIGH CASE (CES4H) 10. was 12. 13. 14, 15. 16. Greens Creek Mine Red Dog Mine Wishbone Hill AJ Mine Kensington Mine Fort Knox Other Mining Activity B.3. Agriculture. 17. Agricutture Employment at the Greens Creek Silver Mine on Admiraity isiand is constant at 260 through 2020 (Source: personai communica- tion, Greens Creek Mining Company] (MGC.S93M) Employment at the Red Dog Lead-Zinc Mine in the Western Brooks Range is constant at 390 through 2020 (MRD.S92M) This coal mine in the Matanuska- Susitna Valley begins operation in mid-1999, employing 250 in the extraction and export of coal to Japan (MWH.S92M -3) Echo Bay Mining Company begins production from this goid mine in Juneau in mid-1996. Operations employment is 450 (MAJ.S92M -2). Echo Bay Mining Company begins production from this mine north of Juneau in 1996. Operations employment is 340 (MKN.S92M -2) Production from this mine near Fairbanks begins in 1995, employing 250 (MFK.S92M) Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases by 3 percent annually from level of 600 in 1992 (MOT.S93M -1) Employment in agriculture increases 1 percent annuaily (AGR.S94M) Same as base Same as base None Same as base Exploration oniy (MKN.S94L) Exploration only (MFK.S94L) Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases 1 percent annually (MOT.S93L -1) Same as base Same as base Same as base This coai mine in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley begins operation in mid-1997, empioy- ing 250 in the extraction and export of coal to Japan (MWH.S92M -1) Same as base Same as base Same as base Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases by 6 percent annually (MOT.S93H -1) Same as base oe Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 3 June 1994 BASE CASE (CE94B) LOW CASE (CE94L) HIGH CASE (CES4H) se —— 8.4. Forest Products 18. Logging and Sawmills 19. Pulp Mills 8.5. Seafood 20. Commerciai Fish Harvesting 21. Commercial Fish Processing 8.6. Federal Government 22. Federal Military Employment 23. Federal Civilian Employment 8.7. Tourism 24. Tourism 8.8. Miscellaneous 25. Electric Projects 26. MIDREX Logging and milling empioyment stabilizes at 2.75 thousand in the late 1990s after growth in the Southeast to offset the Sitka mill closure and growth in Southcentral (FML.S94M) The Sitka miil is ciosed. Employ- ment at the Ketcnikan mill declines at a rate of 1 percent per year because of productivity gains (FMP.S94M) Employment in fish harvesting constant at 9.085 thousand (SFH.S93M) Employment in processing of fisheries harvest remains constant (SFP.S94M) Strength level constant at 20.330 thousand from 1996 forward; Ft. Richardson reduced 50 percent (FMI.S93M) Employment increases at 0.5 percent annual rate consistent with the long-term trend since 1960 (FCV.S94M) Index of tourist visitor expendi- tures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 4 percent per year through 2010 and then 3 percent (TRN.S94M) Construction of Healy Clean Coal Project outside Fairbanks and intertie upgrades in the mid- 1990s (HCC.S93M) None Southeast employment declines 1 percent annually and no replacement of Sitka miil jobs. No growth in Southcentral (FML.S94L) Employment declines 2 percent annually (FMP.S94L) Employment in fish harvesting declines 1 percent annuaily (SFH.S94L) Employment declines 1 percent annuaily after 1995 (SFP.S94L) Strength level declines 1 percent annuaily after 1996 and Ft. Richardson ciosed (FMI.S94L) Employment is constant, consis- tent with trend since eariy 1970s (FCV.S94L) Index of tourist visitor expendi- tures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 2 percent per year (TRN.S94L) Same 4s base None Same as base except Southeast employment increases .5 per- cent annually starting in late 1990s (FML.S94H) The Sitka mill reopens in 1996. Employment is constant (FMP.S94H) Same as base Employment grows in the Southwest and Anchorage in the 1990s and is constant thereafter (SFP.S94H) Strength level increases 1 per- cent annually after 1995 (FMI.S93H) Same as base Index of tourist visitor expendi- tures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 6 percent per year through 2010 and then 4 percent (TRN.S94H) Same as base An iron ore reduction plant is located in the Mat-Su Borough, creating operating employment of 100. starting in 1998 (MMM.S94M) institute of Sociai and Economic Research Page 4 June 1994 BASE CASE LOW CASE HIGH CASE (CE94B) (CE94L) (CES4H) Cc. FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS C.1, Revenues 1. Severance Based on mid-case projections Calculated using low case Calculated using high case Taxes (RPTS] published by Alaska Department (DOR.F93L) (DOR.F93H) of Revenue (DOR.F93M). No change in regulations. 2. Royalties (RPRY] Based on mid-case projections Calculated using low case Calculated using high case published by Alaska Department (DOR.F93L) (DOR.F93H) of Revenue (DOR.F93M). No change in regulations. 3. Bonuses (RPBS] Based on mid-case projections Calculated using low’ case Calculated using high case published by Alaska Department (DOR.F93L) (DOR.F93H) of Revenue (DOR.F93M). No change in regulations. 4. Property Taxes Based on mid-case projections Calculated using low case Calculated using high case i (RPPS] published by Alaska Department (DOR.F93L) (DOR.F93H) of Revenue (DOR.F93M). No change in regulations. i 5. Petroleum Based on mid-case projections Calculated using low case Calculated using high case Corporate published by Alaska Department (DOR.F93L) (DOR.F93H) Income Tax of Revenue (DOR.F93M). No (RTCSPX] change in regulations. 6. Petroleum Rents Constant at $9 million (nominal) Same as base Same as base (RPEN] annually 7. Miscellaneous Alaska receives $3 billion over Alaska receives $2 billion Alaska receives $4.6 billion Petroleum the period FY 1994 to 2002 in (WIN.S94L) between 1994 and 2003 Settlement settlement of disputed offshore (WIN.S94H) Revenues leases in the Beaufort Sea and in (RP9X] settlement of lawsuits and tax (EXPF9] disputes regarding the valuation of North Slope oii. Most of these revenues are available for appro- Priations, with a smail percent- age going into the Permanent Fund (WIN.S94M) 8. Federai-State Increasing $1 million annually Same as base Same as base Petroleum- from 1993 levei of $16 million Related Shared Revenues (RSFONPX] Ss institute of Social and Economic Research Page 5 June 1994 BASE CASE LOW CASE HIGH CASE (CE94B) (CE94L) (CES4H) 9. Personaiincome Reimposed over a 2-fiscai-year Same as base Same as base Tax (EXPIT] period at previous level when state general fund revenue shortfalis would otherwise require state budget reductions exceeding $200 miilion. Income tax is reimposed prior to the time that Permanent Fund earn- ings are appropriated to the generai fund ana also prior to elimination of the Permanent Fund Dividend. 10. Large Project Zero Same as base Same as base Corporate Income Taxes (RTCSX] 11. Misceilaneous Misceilaneous state-local trans- Same as base Same as base Local Revenue fers, large project property Sources taxes, new petroleum-related (RLTX],[RLPTX], federal transfers all set to zero (RLTFPX] 12. New Federai- Zero Same as base Same as base State Shared Revenues (RSFDNX] 13. Agency Trans- $100 million contributed to Same as base Same as base fers (AHFC, general fund annually beginning AIDEA) in 1994 (RMISX] C.2. State Appropriations 14. Aggregate Annuai appropriation equais Same 4s base Same as base Appropriations current revenues pilus 50 percent ({EXWIND] of available balance for appro- {EXRLS) Priations up to level of prior-year expenditures 15. Capital/ 90 percent operations; 10 per- Same as base Same as base Operations cent capital Split (EXSPUTX] 16. General Obliga- Bond sales for capital expendi- Same as base Same as base tion Bonds tures occur at a rate which (EXCPSGOB] maintains annual debt service payments at a level no more than 5 percent of current state revenues 17. Federal Grants- Growth rate slightly above Same as base Same as base in-Aid (Capital USCPI and Operating) (RSFDN] —_——_— ————— institute of Social and Economic Researcn Page 6 June 1994 BASE CASE LOW CASE HIGH CASE (CES4B) (CES4L) (CES4H) ee 18. State Loan AHFC, AIDEA, and other pro- Same as base Same as base Programs grams function on existing [EXKTR1X] capitalization [EXLOAN2] ([EXCPSR1] 19. Municipal None None None Capital Grants (RLTMCAP] 20. State-Locai Continuation proportional to Same as base Same as base Revenue Sharing total state expenditures (RLTRS] 21. State-Locai Continuation proportional to Same as base Same as base Municipal total state expenaitures Assistance ([RLTMA] 22. Permanent Fund $600 million in capital spending Same as base Same as base /Other Special spread between 1993 and 1995 Appropriations in Excess of Spending Limit ([EXPFCONX] (EXGFOPSX] [EXSPCAP] C.3. Permanent Fund 23. Permanent Fund Deposits from petroleum Same as base Same as base Principal revenues continue at current {EXPF1] rates; inflation proofing eliminated when compiete withdrawal of nominal earnings commences. 24. Permanent Fund Continued at the rate of 50 per- Same as base Dividend reduced to 25 percent Dividend cent of earnings averaged over of earnings {EXPFDIST] the previous 5 years. Three years after personal income tax is reimposed, dividend is gradually reduced to 10 percent of earnings but not completely phased out. See eee "oo nstitute ot Social ana Economic Researcn Page 7 June 1994 BASE CASE (CE94B) LOW CASE (CES4L) HIGH CASE (CES4H) ees 25. Permanent Fund Eamings [EXPFTOGF] 26. Total Real Rate of Retum [ROR + RORPPF] C.4. Miscellaneous 27. State-Locai Wage Rates [EXWRI 28. Local Property Tax Rate [RLPTRATE] 29. Federal Cost- of-Living Adjustment Added to Federal Wages and Salaries (PCOLART] After payment of the dividend, the remaining Fund earnings (inflation proofing and undis- tributed income) are added to the corpus of the Permanent Fund. Three years after the personal income tax is reim- posed, a gradually increasing share of the earnings are diverted to the generai fund. Inflation proofing is eventuaily eliminated. 5 percent. This compares to the 5 percent time-weighted histori- cal cash income realized rate of return [Source: Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation, Annuai Financiai Report, 1991]. Reali wage reduced 10 percent over 8 years Increases 10 percent after 2000 Declines from 25 to 15 percent over the period 1997 to 2001 — 2 percent annually OD. NATIONAL VARIABLE ASSUMPTIONS 1. U.S. Inflation Rate (GRUSCPI] 2. Real Average Weekly Earnings (GRRWEUS] Approximately 3.1 percent through 1995; 3.9 percent thereafter (DOR.F93M) Growth in reali average weekly earnings averages O percent annually Same as base 4 percent Real wage reduced 10 percent over 4 years Same as base Same as base Approximately 2.1 percent through 1995; 2.3 percent thereafter (OOR.F93L) Growth in real average weekly earnings averages -.2 percent annuaily Same as base 6 percent Real wage reduced 5 percent over 2 years Same as base Declines to 20 percent over same period Approximately 4.1 percent through 1995; 5.1 percent through 2000; and 5.3 percent thereafter (DOR.F93H) Growth in real average weekly earnings averag .2 percent annually — — Institute af Social and Economic Research Page 8 June 1994 BASE CASE LOW CASE HIGH CASE (CES4B) (CES4L) (CES4H) 3. Reai Per Capita Growth in real per capita income .8 percent 1.2 percent Income averages 1 percent annuaily in (GRDIRPU] excess of real average weekly earnings 4. Unemployment Long-run rate averages Long-run rate averages Long-run rate averages Rate (UUS] 6.5 percent 6.25 percent 6.75 percent E. REGIONAL ASSUMPTIONS 1. Population Regional population growth Same as base Same as base allocated on the basis of existing population and employment growth 2. Employment No significant shifts in the Same as base Same as base location of support industries except for increasing share of Greater Anchorage to Mat-Su Borough F, DEMOGRAPHICS 1. Labor Force Gradually declines from Same as base Same as base Participation 76 to 74 percent Rate (LAFPRT1] _—_— Eee Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 9 June 1994 Appendix C: Comparison of Actual to Forecast Values for Ketchikan and Petersburg In 1990 we completed separate load forecasts for Ketchikan, Petersburg, Metlakatla, and Wrangell using the same methods that are used in this forecast. The following set of graphs compares actual values for the five year period from 1989 to 1993 with the forecast values. The left side shows Ketchikan and the right looks at Petersburg. The Ketchikan forecasts were too high because we overestimated commercial sales growth. This was probably due to the inclusion of too many speculative large loads on top of underlying commercial class growth. The Petersburg High case forecast was very close to actual levels. We have not gone back to look at the various components of commercial load in Petersburg, but there are significant fish processing loads there, just as in Kake. Overall, the performance of these forecasts seems acceptable considering the volatility of the loads involved. This page intentionally blank Actual vs Forecast: 1989-1993 Ketchikan Residential Customers | Petersburg Residential Customers 1,240 1,220 1,200 1,180 1,160 1.140 1,120 1,100 Ketchikan use per Residential Customer Petersburg use per Residential Customer Ketchikan Commercial/industrial Sales | Petersburg Commercial/Industrial Sales (excluding KPC) | i 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Petersburg Total Sales | 200,000 | 180,000 160,000 Ketchitan Total Sales | = | | all 120,000 ' 100,000 80,000 60.000 40,000 20,000 ttl ISER SELOAD95.XLS Compare 8/795 3:58 PM jn Appendix D: Comments from the Draft Report with Responses The following comments were received: te William Corbus, letters of July 27 and August 2 , 1995 2. Jim Calvin, letter to William Corbus dated July 25, 1995 Responses follow all of the comments. PINES —— LIGHT & POWER July 27, 1995 Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage, Alaska 99508 Re: Comments on Draft Report ~~Electrical Load Forecasts for Haines, Chilkat Valley and Kake, Alaska'' dated May 15, 1995 Dear Steve: I have reviewed the above Draft Report which the Haines Light & Power Co., Inc. (HLP) intends to use to support its economic and financial feasibility analysis of the proposed Upper Chilkoot Hydroelectric Project. My initial reaction is that the Mid Case projected 1.7% average annual growth of Energy Sales period. The the Mid Case used for the On July and Net Generation was too low for the forecast entire focus of this letter is directed toward since this is primary forecast which will be Upper Chilkoot feasibility analysis. 10, 1995 I spent the day in Haines and held pre-scheduled meetings with Haines City Administrator, Tom Healy, and Haines School District Superintendent, Ron Erickson. I and HLP Treasurer, subdivisions territory. Attached are July 25, In addition I requested Jim Calvin McDowell Group from Juneau to review the Draft also visited HLP General Manager, Tom Quinlan, and toured new under construction within the HLP Andrew Eggen, residential service of the Report. Mr. Calvin's observations in a letter dated 1995. As an overview Haines is undergoing a residential construction boom, a new tourship dock has been completed, tourism is flourishing and the commercial/service sector is expanding. requirements compounded annual increase, During the periods 1984-1994 (8609 MWH vs. MWH) and 1989-1994 (10101 MWH vs. 11973 11973 MWH) Net Generation increased at an 2.1% and 3.6%, average respectively. This increase occurred despite very rocky economic times for HLP service area during the 1980s and early 1990s. In addition to the points raised by Jim Calvin I have two concerns: 1. For the Mid Case you have assumed no increased electrical usage per customer. During my July 10th visit to Haines I observed several (907) 766-2331 ¢ PO 4aines. AK 99827 Box 20 subdivisions, totaling in excess of 80 lots, under development with large view lots, underground utilities and other amenities common to the urban areas of Alaska. Many of the houses which will be constructed on these lots will be larger and have appliances which in my opinion will result in higher usage than HLP's existing use per residential customer. I would suggest using a 0.5% increase in annual usage. On Page 7 you address the Net Generation issue and have adjusted line losses down to 7%. I have attached the HLP 1989-1994 Operating Statistics table which has separated Company Use from Line Loss. I would suggest using 8.5%. Although Line Losses in the distribution area are expected to come down as the system is converted from 2.4 KV to 7.2 KV and larger conductors are installed, the transmission losses from the Upper Chilkoot Project to the Haines load area must be factored in and will offset distribution savings. Finally, it should be made clarified in your Report when you refer to growth rates whether you are talking about “~average growth'' or ~~compounded average growth''. In general I think you have prepared a very good and well thought out forecast. I urge you to consider the points brought up by Jim Calvin and myself which should raise the Mid Case forecast to the compounded average 2 1/2- 3% range. Very truly yours, faiZ (EMA William A. Corbus Chairman Copy to: Andrew Eggen Jim Calvin Dick Emerman Corry Hildenbrand Tom Quinlan OPSTAT95.XLS | | | | Haines Light & Power Co., Inc. | | I Operating Statitstics for Years ended December 31, 1989-1994 i | | | \ | | [ | | 1989 1990 1991 192 | 1993 | ~—«1994 Electric Revenues ($x1000) i | | i | il Residential | i [ 665i 619) 621) 654 | 728| 764 _Commercial/ Industrial | 655! 7571 748) 824] 925) 941 Street Lighting I 192! 34) 40] 41] 41] 42 Cost of Power Adj { | -178! 911 +t! -33| -64| -151 _Other | | i 4 4 4] 15 y Total I | 1338! 1505i 1409} 1490| 1645] 1613, | | | | Number of Customers { Residential | | 6241 651) 640! 681 705 723) Commercial/ Industrial { | 1841 1881 189} 187 192| 199] Other | | | 1 1 1 1 1| 1 | | | +} | | Total | | 8091 3401 830) 869 398] 923 T T T 1 | MWH Generated& Purchased t | Diesel I 8910) 59871 10172/ 9933/ 10739} 11126 Hydro Purchased 104) 36] 1056] 367/ 847| Thermo Purchased 1191; 4743) 543) | i Total | i 101011 10834/ 10771] 10989 11606| 11973 T T i MWHSales | | | | Residential | | 3550! 3856] 3907] 3910 4129) 4284 Commercial/ Industrial | 49571 5369) 5194/ 5408 5727| 5892 Street Lightin, | | 231] 261/ 268) 267| 263) 311 | i i | Total | | 8738 | 9486] 9369] 9585 10119) 10487| _Company Use | 3661 473| 472: 498 492| 476) Line Loss] | 992 875| 930 906 995 1010 Total Non Sales Use | 1363} 1348| 1402 1404 1487| 1486} Tol | | 10101! 10834] 10771| 10989 11606) 11973 | | | Peak Load (KW) | | 1900} 1980] 2050/ 2150/ 2231] 2342 T T T T Line Loss as % of KWH Gen | 9.87! 8.081 8.63/ 8.24] 3.57/ 8.44 11:51 AM 7/27/95 PINES ————— LIGHT & POWER August 2, 1995 Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage, Alaska 99508 Re: Further comments on Draft Report ~~Electrical Load Forecasts for Haines, Chilkat Valley and Kake, Alaska dated May 15, 1995 Dear Steve: Upon further reflection I would like to add a follow up comment to my July 27th letter concerning your Draft Report. Your low forecast (0.7%) seems too low when one considers the status of Haines economy today versus ten years ago. Even though there were numerous economic ups and down for Haines in the 1980s and early 1990s, HLP electrical requirements still showed very healthy growth. Attached for your information are pertinent sections from the Southeast Alaska Electric Load Forecast prepared for the Alaska Power Authority by R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. dated April 1987 as well as HLP's electrical statistics for the period 1989-1994. HLP's electrical requirements have substantially out distanced the ~~High Case'' despite many economic adversities. Again, I recommend you take another look at your low scenario. Very truly yours, William A. Corbus Chairman Copy to: Dick Emerman QAN7\ 7AR-2221 © BO Rav 20 Wainac LK AARI7 — HLP - SALES FURELAS! = SOUTHEAST ALASKA ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST PREPARED FOR THE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY . R. W. BECK AND ASSOCIATES, INC. ENGINEERS AND CONSULTANTS ORLANDO, FLORIDA SEATTLE, WASHINGTON DENVER. COLORADO PHOENIX. ARIZONA BOSTON. MASSACHUSETTS AUSTIN. TEXAS WASHINGTON, 0.C INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA COLUMBUS, NEBRASKA NASHVILLE. TENNESSEE MINNEAPOLIS. MINNESOTA APRIL 1987 II1-21 The following table summarizes various historical statistics for HLP : Table III-9 Haines Light and Power Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peax Calendar Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kinh) (MWh) (MWh) (ki) Nee eae ee ee eee eee cee ee alee eC eee 1971 N/A 2,214 N/A 6,254 N/A N/A 1976 N/A 2,912 N/A 7,516 N/A 1,300 1980 435 2,450 5,632 6,541 7,309 1,300 1981 435 2,382 5,476 6,344 6,995 1,900 1982 483 2,547 5,273 7,630 8,319 1,500 1983 473 2,672 5,649 7,336 7,855 1,500 1984 493 2,854 5,789 8,022 8,609 2,000 1985 520 3,033 5,833 7,876 8,685 1,700 &a Mwerage Annual Increase: 1980-85 3.6% 4.4% 0.7% 3.8% 3.5% SS 1983-85 4.9% 6.5% 1.6% 3.6% 52%, 6.5% Forecast Assumptions ° Growth potential appears to be good for tne Haines area. Recently, ™ area's lumber mill waS purchased and is anticipated to reopen in the near Rure after a two-year closure. It is anticipatea that the mill may employ ef workers most of whom are presently unemployed in the area. The mill Pected to generate its own power and will not be a direct customer of te4 potential mining operations in Canada, if operations begin, are me ci to tranship ore through Haines. There is also the possibility of wets of Haines developing cold storage facilities for fish products. ike. has been increasing and continues to look promising for the future. “Re ion, Although the specific impacts of these potential expansions and S Cannot be determined at the present time, they do indicate a general in economic activity and economic diversification. The load forecast thence’ Population to grow at 1.5% per year through 1991 and at 1% per Sx Wf qenreee for the base case. Population growtn for the high case is 0 be 2.5% per year through 1991, 2.0% per year from 1991 through ? Per year thereafter. The low case assumes population growth of 0.2% 8 eels “<i Ra 111-23 seeorast Results aa The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table cn of the three forecast scenarios: < e3 Table III-10 Haines Light and Power Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Ava. Annual Inc. Actual 1986 1991 1996 2006 - = -06 ase Case: Sales of ‘ Flectricity (MWh): ; Residential 3,033 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,500 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% e Commercial 4,647 4,700 5,000 5,200 5,600 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% = Other 196 200 200 200 200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% = Total 7,876 8,000 8,400 8,700 9,300 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% =e Total Req. (MWh) 8,685 8, 800 9,200 9,500 10,200 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% “ Peak Demand (kW) 1,668 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 1.2% “077%-—-0..7% sigh Case: Sales of £lectricity (MWh): Residential 3, 100 3,300 3,500 3,800 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% Commercial 4,800 5,100 5,400 6,000 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% Other 200 200 200 200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 8,100 8,600 9,100 10,000 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% : Total Req. (MWh) 8, 800 9,400 10,000 10,900v 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% Peak Demand (kW) 1,600 1,800 1,900 2,050 2.4% 1.1% 0.8% -ow Case: Sales of : Electricity (MWh): Residential 3, 100 3,100 3,100 3,100 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commercial 4,700 4,800 4,800 4,900 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% ; Other 200 200 200 200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% { Total 8,000 8,100 8,100 8,200 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% ; Total Req. (MWh) 8,700 8,900 8,900 9,000 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Peak Demand (kW) 1,600 1,700 1,700 1,700 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ; The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. His- torical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphi- Cally in Figure III-5a and Figure III-5b, respectively. Figure III-5c dis- Plays historical and projected base case energy sales by customer classifi- Cation. OPSTAT95.XLS ! | \ Haines Light & Power Co., Inc. | | | { t | I Operating Statitstics for Years ended December 31, 1989-1994 | | I | { | : i | | el: [1989 «1990 =i 12 | 1983 —~«|~—=«iooa Electric Revenues ($x1000)___ | I | | | Residential [ | 665/ 619/ 621/ 654 728| 764) Commercial/ Industrial | | 655) 7571 7481 824] 925 941] Street Lighting | 192] 34] 40/ 41 41 42 Cost of Power Adj i | -178 91) ti -33/ ~64 -151 Other I | | 4 4| 4 4 15 fu ~ Total | | | 1338] 1505| 1409/ 1490 1645 1613 | { | | | Number of Customers I I | | Residential _| | | 624| 651/ 6401 681 705 723 Commercial/ Industrial | | 184] 188 | 189} 187 192! 199} Other | 1 1 1 1 1 1 | I ! | l “Total ' | 309! 840! 330) 869 398] 923; J MIVH Generated&Purchased _| | a} I | | Diesel 8910] 5987] 10172! 99331 10739] 11126] Hvdro Purchased | 104/ 56! 1056] 367 347| Thermo Purchased | 1191) 4743 543) Total | 10101| 10834! 10771 10989 11606 11973 i MWH Sales I | | L | Residential | 3550 3856) 39071 3910 4129 4284) Commercial/Industrial I 4957, 5369 51941 5408 5727 5892| Street Lighting | 231] 261 268] 267 263 311 - } | Total I 8738) 9486 9369) 9585 10119 10487 Company Use | 366| 473 472\ 498) 492 476 Line Loss | 997 875 | 930) 906 995) 1010) Total Non Sales Use | 1363) 1348] 1402/ 1404) 1487, 1486} Total | | [ 10101| _10834/ 107711 10989] 11606 11973 | | | [Peak Load (KW) | | 1900 1980) 20501 2150) 2231 2342| i | | } line Loss as % of KWH Gen | 9.87) 8.08) 8.631 8.24/ 8.57 8.44) 8:31 AM 8/2/95 McDowell Consulting and Research in Economics, Business and Marketing GuR oO U P July 25, 1995 William A. Corbus Chairman Haines Light & Power Co., Inc. 612 W. Willoughby Ave. Juneau, Alaska 99801 Dear Mr. Corbus: We have reviewed the ISER draft report “Electric Load Forecasts for Haines, Chilkat Valley, and Kake, Alaska”. We offer the following comments for your consideration. Haines Area Employment It is important to recognize that there is no data available providing an accurate measure of total employment in Haines. Numbers provided by the Alaska Department of Labor for the Haines Borough include employment in Excursion Inlet. Employment at the Excursion Inlet Packing plant is significant (over 100 jobs last time we checked). Year-to-year fluctuation in employment at the plant can mask what is really happening in Haines. In addition, until recently manufacturing employment in Haines as reported by ADOL included Klukwan Forest Products (KFP) jobs outside the Haines area. KFP employment around Southeast (totaling over 200 in 1990) has declined steadily over the last several years, having no direct effect on Haines, but resulting in a significant decline in Haines employment as reported by ADOL. Closure of the mill in Haines resulted in the loss of about 140 jobs. The employment decline of 488 jobs in Haines between 1989 and 1992 reported by ADOL is an accounting mirage. It in no way represents actual employment trends in Haines. It is useful to look at Haines employment trends in sectors where available data is not contaminated by non-local employment. Employment in the retail sector has increased from 141 to 175 in 1994, a 24% increase. Services employment has increased from 113 to 125, an 11% increase. Employment in the Transportation, Communications & Utilities (TCU) sector in the past was influenced by non-local jobs with West Coast Stevedoring. Employment with that company has been declining in recent years, though the sector in Haines is growing overall. Since 1992, employment in TCU has increased from 117 to 150 in 1994, a 28% increase. This increase is not due to increasing non-local employment. 416 Harris, Suite 301 * Juneau, AK 99801 P.O. Box 21009 (907) 586-6126 * Fax (907) 586-2673 Juneau, AK 99802 It is also important to note that a significant amount of employment activity in Haines is not captured in the ADOL data. For example, ADOL does not include commercial fishermen. Approximately 115 local permit holders earn $4 million to $5 million annually, primarily from the salmon gillnet fishery. Population Growth in Haines Since 1992, employment in TCU, Services and Retail in Haines has been growing at an annual rate of 10%. It is growth in these sectors, as well an influx of retirees, that has driven the 5% annual population growth in the community. ISER is projecting mid-case growth rates for the period 1993 to 2014 of 1.8% for households and 1.3% for support employment. It is our opinion that this projection is low. We expect a higher growth rate in Haines, perhaps 3% annually, for several reasons including: ¢ Growth of 5% annually between 1990 and 1993. We do not expect this rate of growth to continue for the next ten years, however we see no indicators that growth is slowing in the short term. The Haines Borough is reporting a population increase of 220 residents in 1994 alone, a growth rate of nearly 10%. This estimate is probably too high, but it clearly reflects continuing growth in the area. ¢ Haines has more private land available for development than any area in Southeast. While property values have been increasing in Haines quite rapidly, land is still relatively inexpensive in the area. This will generate continued in-migration. ¢ Thecommunity’s transportation infrastructure is improving with expansion on the airport in 1993, construction of a cruise ship dock in 1994, and expected improvements in Alaska Marine Highway System service over the next few years. These improvements will generate local economic development, particularly in tourism. Induced Economic Effects of Large Loads The assumption is made that “Every ten high-wage employees generate three support sector jobs...” (pg. 4). This mulitplier estimate (1.3) is very conservative. Scott Goldsmith of ISER calculated a statewide employment multiplier of 1.56, based on 1982 data. (No doubt the statewide multiplier is higher today, given the dramatic growth in urban support sectors). This is an average of urban and rural Alaska. We would expect Haines’ multiplier to be near the statewide average, perhaps about 1.5. Commercial Use Per Employee When commercial use per employee has increased at 1.5% per year since 1989, it seems overly conservative to use a mid-case growth rate of 0.39%. Without support evidence to the contrary, we would recommend using a growth rate halfway between the statewide average and the Haines average since 1989, or about 0.95%. Summary While it is not possible for us to assess all of the modeling parameters and assumptions used to develop the Haines area load forecast, we are concerned that the forecast may be overly conservative. This is a complex forecast requiring very detailed local-level economic analysis. No doubt ISER was constrained by their budget and was unable to perform any detailed local modeling and forecasting. We suspect that a closer look at the issue would point to a higher mid-case forecast. Bill, please call if you have any comments or questions. Best regards, Response to Comments of William Corbus (letters dated July 27 and August 2, 1995). Mid Case The inputs to the mid case forecast have been revised to reflect more optimistic assumptions about the persistence and effects of the current local real estate and tourism boom in Haines. The number of retirement or “lifestyle” households building new homes has been increased to 30. The continuing growth rate of cruise ship visitors has been doubled from 2 percent per year to 4 percent, reflecting projected industry growth statewide. Every new home is assumed to use 8,000 kWh per year instead of the current average of 6,000 kWh. This increases the annual growth of the average kWh per residential customer from 0.0 percent (in the draft) to 0.5 percent. On the commercial side, data from 1994 shows that HL&P commercial use per support employee has grown at an average rate of 1.3 percent from 1986 through 1994. This figure replaces the 1.5 percent growth for the high case. The mid case growth rate has been increased from 0.39 percent (the Alaska statewide average from 1986-93) to 0.65 percent (one half the 1986-1994 trend in Haines). The net effect of these revisions to the critical assumptions is to increase the mid case growth rate from 1.7 percent to 2.2 percent. It is important to note that these growth rates are averages for the entire period. The shorter-term mid case growth rates are substantially higher. The average growth rate for the 1994-1999 period is almost 3 percent. Low Case In the draft report, the low case reflected the idea that the current economic boom in Haines will quickly fizzle out. Upon reflection we agree that there is enough inertia built into current activities to keep the tourism and real estate boom going for several years. The estimated effects of these current activities have been added to the low case. As a result, energy requirements are now projected to grow at an average rate of 1.4 percent, up from 0.7 percent in the draft. Specific Comment on Residential Use per Customer We agree with this reasoning and have assumed that a// new households use 8,000 kWh per year. This results in a growth rate of average use per customer of about 0.5 percent per year. Specific Comment on Line Losses The draft was misleading on this point. It was referring to station service rather than line losses. We have tried to clarify these issues. In any event, our analysis of historical data suggests that after “company use” has been removed from the data, line losses have averaged about 9 percent of net generation. So we have used 9 percent as the line losses assumption for all three cases. As we note in the new sections of text, it would not be appropriate to consider losses which are specific to particular generation sources in a demand forecast. These losses are part of the cost of supplying power to meet the load as measured at the start of the distribution system. Response to Comments of Jim Calvin (letter to William Corbus dated July 25,1995) Haines Employment Data and Actual Recent Growth in Haines Mr. Calvin’s comments on the opacity of Haines area employment data are on the mark. However, one must be careful in defining a trend based on based on only three years of data and one should also look at all sectors of the economy. Calvin's citations of recent rapid growth exclude the crucial government sector, which accounts for about 30% of total reported Haines Borough wage and salary employment. Local government employment fell from 196 to 191 between 1992 and 1994, a decline of 3 percent. Total “support employment” as | have defined it for the forecast (e.g., trade, services, and government) therefore increased by only 8 percent, from 515 to 556, during this two year period. Over the slightly longer 1990-94 period, total “support employment” increased at an average annual rate of only 1.6 percent, which is very close to the 1.3 percent average annual rate projected in the mid case. Between 1989 and 1993, the average increase was higher -- 2.2 percent. Thus there is some evidence that the rate of growth in “support employment” is itself declining. Among basic industries, fishing is certainly important, but stable at best. And tourism is certainly growing, as we have projected in the mid case. Rather than attempting to define and extrapolate overall trends, our forecasts are based on scenarios with specific elements grounded in the basic sectors. Based on a more detailed review of the current economic boom in Haines, we have increased growth assumptions for the low and mid cases as detailed in the text and in the response to Mr. Corbus’ comments, above. Comment on the Multiplier The latest evidence from Goldsmith’s work with his version of the Alaska Input-Output model shows employment multipliers of only about 1.4 for statewide effects of additional high-wage jobs (petroleum industry). Moreover, these multipliers reflect indirect as well as induced effects. But the multipliers used in the Haines forecast reflect induced effects only, since the Kensington mine workers and retirees will not be working in Haines. They will only be spending their income there. We are also not sure that multipliers are necessarily much higher than they were in the 1980s. In particular, the amount of government employment was highly responsive to population growth in the 1980s. Government employment was driven by demand. Today, due to fiscal constraints government employment is increasingly unresponsive to mere changes in population. This would tend to reduce employment multipliers Comment on Commercial Use per Employee We have adopted this methodology but used the Haines trend measured through 1994 as the basis for the high case. This trend value is 1.3 percent. (The value of 1.5 percent referred to in the comment is measured through 1993 only.) Therefore the value used for the mid case is one half of 1.3, or 0.65 percent. Since the statewide growth trend is not (statistically) significantly different from zero, we feel uncomfortable with any local trend that is much greater than 1.0 percent.