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HomeMy WebLinkAboutLNG Situation in Japan for Proposed LNG Project in Alaska, November 1982 ° e 2 w > @ & 42.225 HIGHSMITH LNG SITUATION IN JAPAN FOR PROPOSED LNG PROJECT IN ALASKA PART |: = MITI’S LONG-TERM ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST PART Il: LNG SITUATION IN JAPAN MITI’S LONG-TERM ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST {I] MITI'S LONG-TERM ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST In April 1982, the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) published a forecast of Japan's long-term energy supply and demand. The forecast, which is shown in Table l, reflects recent structural changes in the Japanese economy, con- tinuing sluggishness, increased efforts to conserve energy and so on. The total demand for energy indicated in the forecast, there- fore, is far less than that which was given in MITI's previous forecast published in August 1979. Table 2 compares the major items in the latest forecast and the previous forecast. MITI regards the present glut in the oil market as only a temporary phenomenon and assumes that the world oil supply will become tight in the medium and long term. Consequently, MITI's energy policy remains unchanged, and the main pillars of this policy are: (A) the securing of a stable supply of oil, (B) the development and introduction of alternative energies and (C) the promotion of energy conservation. 1. Demand for Primary Energy The latest forecast is based on the assumption that 2 economic growth will be 5.0% per annum during the 1981-1990 period and 4.0% per annum during the 1991-2000 period. The forecast projects that the demand for primary energy will be 590 million kl (oil equivalent) in 1990 and 770 million kl in 2000, as compared with 429 million kl in 1980. The growth of demand for primary energy, therefore, will be 3.2% per annum in the’ 1980s and 2.7% per annum in the 1990s. GNP elasticity will be 0.64 in the 1980S (as compared with 0.87 in the 1979 forecast) and 0.68 in the 1990s. Supply of Primary Energy Gk) Oak The latest forecast projects oil demand at 290 million kl in both 1990 and 2000, only slightly above the 1980 demand level of 285 million kl. Japan's dependency on oil in its total energy supply, therefore, will be reduced to 49.1% in 1990 and further to 38% in 2000, as compared with 66.4% in 1980. (2) Nuclear Energy To fill the gap to be created by the reduction of dependency on oil, nuclear power generation is expected to be expanded substantially, to the level of 46 million kw of electricity in 1990, or 11.3% of total energy (3) supply, and to 90 million kw in 2000, or 18% of total energy supply. This is in comparison with the 15.7 million kw level in 1980, which was equal to 5% of total energy supply. Nuclear energy is regarded as a semi-indigenous energy because of the independent nuclear fuel cycle, and it has many advantages, especially in terms of eco- nomics and suppliability. Consequently, nuclear energy will play a key role as a major alternative energy source, in reducing Japan's dependency on oil, and the promotion of nuclear power will continue to be given first priority by the government. In spite of this fact, however, the latest forecast reduced the expected level of nuclear power generation from the previously forecast 53 million kw to 46 million kw because the construction of nuclear power stations has been plagued by delays. For instance, approval was to have been given for the construction of nuclear power stations for a targeted 5 million kw in 1981, but actual construction approvals covered only 1.98 million kw due to difficulties in siting that need to be resolved before approval can be given. Natural Gas Natural gas is expected to increase its share in total energy supply from 6.0% in 1980 to 11.5% (68 million kl of oil equivalent) in 1990 and 11.0% (82 million kl of oil equivalent) in 2000. The domestic supply of natural gas is estimated at 7.3 billion cubic meters in 1990. Although the forecast does not refer to domestic supply in 2000, we can hardly expect any substantial increase in this supply by 2000. LNG imports are projected at 43 million MT in 1990, which is a downward revision from the 45 million MT pre- dicted in the 1979 forecast. Out of this 43 million MT of LNG, 31.5 million MT will be for use in electric power generation and 11.35 million MT for use in utility gas supply. The balance of 150,000 MT represents demand from miscellaneous users such as a steel mill. LNG im- ports in 2000 are expected to total approximately 50 million MT. MITI regards LNG as a clean form of energy with com- paratively stable supplies. Consequently, MITI realizes that the use of LNG must be further developed, especially in urban areas. (4) Coal The latest forecast takes into consideration the im- portant role to be played by coal in total energy supply. Coal supply is predicted at 153 million MT in 1990 (19.5% of total energy supply) and 200 million MT in 2000 (19.0%), (5) compared with 92.4 million MT in 1980 (16.7%). Although coal supply in 1990 was revised downward in the latest forecast from the previously forecast 163.5 million MT, its share in total energy supply in- creased to 19.5% from the 17.6% projected in the previous forecast. The 153 million MT of coal supply in 1990 is expected to include 66 million MT of steaming coal, out of which 42 million MT will be used for electric power generation. New Energy Sources New energies are expected to become important sources of energy in the future because they can work as effective deterrents to future oil price hikes. In the latest forecast, the supply of new energies is projected at 15 million kl (oil equivalent) in 1990, or 2.5% of total energy supply, and 65 million kl in 2000, or 8% of total energy supply, although new energies ac- counted for only 700,000 kl in 1980, or 0.2% of total energy supply. The 15 million kl of new energies in 1990 is expected to consist of 1.4 million kl from liquefied coal, 6.5 mil- lion kl from solar energy, 3.5 million kl from oil-sand and oil-shale oils and 3.6 million kl from miscellaneous sources. 3. Energy Conservation Energy conservation is one of the main pillars of MITI's energy policy, and this aim is reflected in the latest forecast. The conservation ratio, (calculated based on the following formula) is expected to be 15.5% in 1990 and 25% in 2000: Conservation ratio = ne Energy demand per unit of GNP in a particular year 226 kl of oil equivalent per 100 million yen of GNP in 1980 Figure 1 compares various forecasts made by different organizations for energy supply and demand in 1990. Table-1 LONG-TERM ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST PUBLISHED BY MITI IN APRIL 1982 FISCAL YEAR DEMAND (RATE OF ENERGY CONSERVATION) * 429 million kl 590 million (15.5%) kl 2000 (Tentative Estimate) approx. 770 million kl (approx. 25%) TYPE OF ENERGY QUANTITY QUANTITY QUANTITY SHARE COAL (million (Domestic Coal) (Steaming Coal) NUCLEAR ENERGY (million NATURAL GAS (million (Domestic Natural Gas) (LNG) (million (million HYDROELECTRIC POWER (million (General Hydroelectric Power) (Pumped Hydroelectric Power) GEOTHERMAL ENERGY (million k1*) SYNTHETIC FUEL OIL, NEW ENERGIES, ETC. (million k1*) OIL (million k1*) (Domenstic Oil) (LPG) (million kl) (million MT) TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY * Oil Equivalent. 92.4 (18.1) (21.3) USe7 25.9 (2,200) (16.8) 29.8 (19.0) (10.8) 0.3 0.7 285 (0.5) (1.4) 429 million kl ff 153.0 (18~ 20) (66.0) 46.0 **68.0 lle peo #*** (7/300) irs mill (43.0) 45.5 (23,5) (22.0) 6.0 15.0 290 (2°93) (24.0) 590 million kl hs 35 mill 5.0 ** 68 million kl of Natural Gas is equivalent to 48 million MT of LNG *** 7,300 million m of Natural Gas is equivalent to 5 million MT of LNG. (The totals in the percentage share colums may not always be 100 as a result of rounding off. betes approx. 200 approx. 90 approx. 82 approx. 63 (30) (33) approx. 15 approx. 65 approx. 290 approx. 770 million kl 19.0 18.0 11.0 ion MT for electric power ion MT for gas companies. 5.0 companies. Table-2 Comparison of MITI's Energy Forecasts Figures for 1990: Figures for 1990: Latest Forecast Previous Forecast (April 1982) (August_1979) Change (%) Total Energy Demand 590 million kl 700 million kl -15.7 (oil equivalent) Oil Imports © 288.1 million kl 350 million kl -17.7 (including LPG) Imported Oil 48.8% 50.03% = Dependency LNG Imports 43 million MT 45 million MT -4.4 Coal 153 million MT 163.5 million MT -6.4 Nuclear Power 46 million kw 53 million kw =132 oO Figure-1 COMPARISON OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTS FOR FY1990 Cs Unit: 100 million kl (oil equivalent) PETROLEUM THE INSTITUTE OF ASSOCIATION ' Others __ 7.92 Mer Dsr {ENERGY ECONOMICS | OF JAPAN New Energy,e (2 8) (10,000 kl) “SSG oe Imported LPG - (10,000 MT) LNG- (10,000 MT) Nuclear Energy (10,000 kw) — Hyd: lectri ae a, 5.45 (13 (10,000 kw) 000: : ) 5.45 | (1.3) ss = 959 ’ 5 20 gn 240 5.10 (1.1) (15) Coal (3.6) f EL _ . 8) 1,00 (4.4) (10,000 MT) (25) es Ree 4322 (61) Imported Oil ~ 42 | (100million k1)}: (53,1): (excluding ; bret ios Imported LPG) oad 69. (Forecasted in) June'77 Aug'79 Apr'82 : December '81 : Feb'82 *on a supply basis ; ze ] te ] = ng i : e e Pric Pric Case Case [II] ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST In Japan, LNG is used by four out of the nine electric power companies as a fuel for their electric power generation, and two other electric power companies are to start using LNG in the 1980s. in 1980, 13.4 million MT of LNG was consumed for electric power generation, and this represents more than 75% of Japan's total LNG consumption in the same year. Electric power generation will remain a major use of LNG in the future. In 1990, 31.5 mil- lion MT of LNG, or 73% of total LNG consumption, will be used for electric power generation. For this reason, the outlook for electric power supply and demand is very important in any discussion of LNG demand in Japan. The following are the main features of the forecast published in April 1982 by the Subcommittee on Supply and Demand of the Ele- ctric Enterprise Council, an advisory body to the Minister of International Trade and Industry. 1. Demand for Electric Power Demand for electric power is expected to increase from 520.3 billion kwh in 1980 to 795 billion kwh in 1990. This forecast is a downward revision by 12.5% of the 908.3 billion kwh projected in the 1979 forecast. The demand for electric power will be approximately 1,120 billion kwh in 2000. = 70 —— The annual growth rate of electric power demand will be 4.3% during the 1980s. This represents a 5.3% annual growth rate for electricity for household and commercial use and a 3.8% annual growth rate for electricity for industrial use. GNP elasticity will be 0.86 during the 1980s. The annual growth rate of electric power demand during the 1990s is expected to average 3.5%. Supply of Electric Power The Japanese Government's basic policies with regard to the supply of electric power are (A) the development of elect- ric power generation using alternative forms of energy so as to reduce dependency on oil, since the present heavy depen- dency on oil is regarded as a main reason for the high cost of electric power generation, and (B) the diversification of energy sources for electric power generation in order to ensure stable supplies of electric power. (1) Nuclear Power In consideration of the economics and the suppliabil- ity of nuclear energy, the construction of nuclear power stations will be promoted vigorously. The planned total capacity of nuclear power stations is targeted at 46 million kw in 1990 (22% of total power generation capacity) and 90 million kw in 2000 (30%). (2) (3) (4) LNG LNG is a clean energy and therefore can be used in city and suburban areas. In addition, LNG-fired power generation can be made highly efficient through the utilization of LNG cold and of combined-cycle power generation. In view of these facts, the construction of LNG-fired power stations will be actively promoted. The planned total capacity of LNG-fired power stations is to be 43 million kw (20.6% of total power generation capacity) in 1990 and 47 million kw (16%) in 2000, in comparison with 19.7 million kw (15.2%) in 1980. Coal The use of coal for electric power generation is also encouraged as an alternative to oil. The planned total capacity of coal-fired power stations is 23 million kw (11% of total power generation capacity) in 1990 and 50 million kw (17%) in 2000. oil It has been decided not to construct new oil-fired power stations except for stations currently under con- struction or those for which firm commitments have been made regarding construction. This decision was made in compliance with a resolution adopted by the IEA. As a result of this decision and the scrapping of some old power stations, oil-fired power generation capacity will be reduced to 50.3 million kw (24.1% of total power generation capacity) in 1990 from 60.1 million kw (46.4%) in 1980. Oil-fired power generation capacity in 2000 is expected to be only about 45 million kw (15%). Table 3 shows the targets for electric power supply both on a power-generation-capacity basis and on a power- generated basis in 1990 and 2000, respectively. Table-3 TARGETS FOR ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY (Published on April 22, 1982) POWER GENERATED (BILLION KWH) 1980 (%) 1990 (%) 2000 (%) GENERATION CAPACITY (MW) 1980 (%) 1990 (%) 2000 (%) 15,510 (12.0): |, 46,000: (22.0) 90,000 (30) 82.0 (16.0) goe.0 (3051) 520.0 (43) NUCLEAR (4.1) (14.0) 50,000 (17) 22.7 (4.4) 104.0 (12.4) 190.0 (16) 19,710. (35.2) 43,000 (20.6) 47,000 (16) 1153. (15.0) 179.0 (21.3) 180.0 (15) (22.2) (20) 85.1 (16.6) 107.0 (12.7) 140.0 (12) (21.0) GEOTHERMAL 130° (0.1) 2,700 (1.3) 7,000 ¢ 2) 0.9 (0.2) 18.0 (2.1) 40.0 ( 3) OIL (INCLUDING LPG) 229.9 (44.7) 160.0 (19.1) 130.0 (11) MISCELLANEOUS (BLAST FURNACE GAS, ETC.) 19.0 (2.3) 129,360(100.0) /300,000(100)] 514.1(100.0) 840.0(100.0) 1,200.0(100 ) | 209,000(100.0) {III] UTILITY GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST An official forecast for utility gas supply and demand is available, at present, only for the period until 1986. According to the latest forecast made by the gas industry, demand for utility gas is expected to increase to 12.8 billion cubic meters (10,000 kcal/cubic meter) in 1986 from 9.3 billion cubic meters in 1980. The annual growth rate of the demand is projected at approximately 5.5% during 1980-1986. LNG has become a major feedstock for utility gas in Japan and is currently being imported for the three major gas companies. A total of 3.4 million MT of LNG was consumed as feedstock for utility gas in 1980, and this represents 45% of total utility gas supply in the same year. In 1986, LNG consumption by the gas industry will increase to 6.0 million MT (including special indus- trial-use LNG) or 59% of total utility gas supply. The gas industry is committed to purchasing 8.0 million MT of imported LNG in 1990. [IV] LNG SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST Figure 2 shows the forecast for Japan's LNG supply and demand based on MITI's latest long-term energy supply and demand forecast. The supply quantities shown in this figure are all contracted or quasi-contracted quantities as of April 1982. Canadian LNG is excluded from Figure 2 since the supply of LNG from Canada is still subject to the approval of the Canadian National Energy Board (NEB) at the present moment. According to MITI, the 43 million MT of demand in 1990 will consist of 31.5 million MT of demand from electric power companies and 11.35 million MT of demand from gas companies. (The balance of 150,000 MT represents demand from miscellaneous users.) Figure 2 indicates that there will be 8.8 million MT/year of demand for LNG in excess of contracted or quasi-contracted supply quantities in 1990, 17.44 million MT/year in 1995 and 31.5 million MT/year in 2000. Should the export of Canadian LNG be approved by the NEB, these figures will require a 2.9 million MT/year downward adjustment. However, due to recent trends in the Japanese economy since April 1982, including the unexpected low growth of electricity and gas demand, it appears necessary for additional downward re- visions to be made in the MITI's forecast. It was recently reported that economic growth during 1983- 1987 would be revised downward to the level of 3% per annum, al- though 5.0% was the level assumed in MITI's latest forecast. The electric power industry experienced surprisingly low growth in demand for electricity teins April-August 1982, with an annual growth rate of only 0.5%, in comparison with the 4.4% growth rate expected by the electric power industry at the beginning of 1982. This low growth of electricity demand has resulted partly from relatively cool weather during the summer of 1982, but there is no doubt that it also reflects the further strengthening of trends in Japanese industry toward less energy-consuming products, and consequently, this tendency toward reduced electricity demand growth can be expected to continue. In view of these facts, it would not be an exaggeration to say that around 1990, Japan will not be able to absorb any sub- stantial amount of LNG over and above the 38.1 million MT/year (including 2.9 million MT of Canadian LNG) for which purchase commitments have already been made, in spite of the demand level of 43 million MT in 1990 projected in MITI's latest forecast. Rather, it is in the early 1990s that Japan will have to secure new supplies of LNG to meet the expected new demand and replace LNG supplies from contracts that will have expired. FORECAST OF JAPANESE LNG SUPPLY AND DEMAND FIGURE-2 50,000 1,000 MT/year 50,000 (46,500) DEMAND (BASED ON MITI's FORECAST) 40,000 SUPPLY (IN OPERATION & NEW CONTRACTS) 30,000 20,000 INDONESIA (SPOT) INDONESIA (ADDITIONAL) 10,000 PART II LNG SITUATION IN JAPAN TABLE-1 FIGURE-1l-a FIGURE-1-b TABLE-2 FIGURE-2 FIGURE-3 FIGURE-4 FIGURE-5 FIGURE-6 FIGURE-7 TABLE-3 TABLE-4 TABLE-4 (Cont.) FIGURE-8 FIGURE-9 TABLE-5 FIGURE-10 TABLE-6 FIGURE-11 TABLE-7 TABLE-7 (Cont.) TABLE-8 TABLE-8 (Cont. ) TABLE-9 LIST OF CONTENTS LONG TERM FORECAST OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND (PUBLISHED BY MITI APR. 1982) LONG TERM FORECAST OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND (PUBLISHED BY MITI APR. 1982) LONG TERM FORECAST OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN JAPAN (PUBLISHED BY MITI APR.1982) FORECAST OF JAPANESE LNG SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST OF JAPANESE LNG SUPPLY AND DEMAND ‘GAS AND ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES LNG PURCHASES IN 1985 BY SOURCE GAS AND ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES LNG PURCHASES IN 1990 BY SOURCE ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES 1976%1980 (FISCAL) LNG PURCHASES GAS COMPANIES 1976~1980 (FISCAL) LNG PURCHASES GAS AND ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES LNG PURCHASES IN 1980 (FISCAL) BY SOURCE OPERATING LNG PROJECTS - EXPORTS TO JAPAN CONTRACTS FOR NEW LNG PROJECTS -1 CONTRACTS FOR NEW LNG PROJECTS -2 LNG IMPORTED TO JAPAN (1) PROJECTS IN OPERATION LNG IMPORTED TO JAPAN (2) PROJECTS (NEW CONTRCATS/PLANNING) AVERAGE CIF PRICES - LNG AND CRUDE OIL AVERAGE CIF PRICES - LNG AND CRUDE OIL TYPICAL SPECIFICATION OF LNG IMPORTED TO JPAN LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN (as of April, 1982) LNG RECEIVING TERMINLAS IN JAPAN -1 LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN -2 LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN UNDER CONSTRUCTION -1 LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN UNDER CONSTRUCTION -2 LNG VESSELD USED FOR LNG PROJECTS TO JAPAN 10 LL 12 1 14 is 16 ae, 18 19 20 at 22 23 24 TABLE-1 LONG TERM FORECAST OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND (PUBLISHED BY MITI APR. 1982) FISCAL YEAR 188 0 2::0:.0:0 T9930 oe (Actual) (Preliminary Estimate) DEMAND 429 million kl 590 million kl approx. 770 million # - (RATE OF ENERGY CONSERVATION) (Cs) (15.5%) (approx. 25%) TYPE OF ENERGY QUANTITY SHARE QUANTITY SHARE % QUANTITY SHARE % COAL (million MT) 92.4 16.7 153.0 19.5 approx. 200 | 19.0 (Domestic Coal) (18.1) (18~ 20) (Steaming Coal) (21.3) (66.0) NUCLEAR ENERGY (million kw) 15.7 5.0 46.0 a2.3 approx. 90 18.0 NATURAL GAS (million kl)* 25.9 6.0 **68.0 11.5 approx. 82 11.0 ‘ ini 3 (Domestic. Nasiral: Gas) (million ny ies ee 1.5 million MT for Electric Power Companies. (LNG) (million Mr) (+8) (43.0)131.35 million MT for Gas Companies. HYDROELECTRIC POWER (million kw) 29.8 5.6 4535 5.0 approx. 63 5.0 (General Hydroelectric Power) (19.0) (23.5) (30) (Pumped Hydrolectric Power) (10.8) (22.0) (33) GEOTHERMAL ENERGY (million k1l)* 03 a2 6.0 1.0 approx. 15 2.0 SYNTHETIC FUEL OIL, NEW ENERGIES, 0.7 0.2 15.0 2.5 approx. 65 8.0 etc. (million kl) * OIL (million k1)* 285 66.4 290 49.1 approx. 290 38.0 (Domestic 9il) (million kl) (0.5) (1.9) (LPG) (million MT) (14) (24) t + 4 TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY - 429 million kl 100.0 590 million kl 100.0 japprox.770 million kl] 100.0 ae 4 *O0il Equivalents **68 million kl of Natural Gas is equivalent to 48 million MT of LNG. ***7,300 million m3 of Natural Gas is equivalent to 5 million MT of LNG. : (The total in the percentage share columns may not always be 100 as the result of rounding off.) FIGURE-1l-a LONG TERM FORECAST OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND (PUBLISHED BY MITI APR. 1982) million KL 800 NOTE: FIGURES ARE OIL EQUIVALENTS approx. 770 15 (2.08%) + GEOTHERMAL ENERGY |. SYNTHTIC FUEL OIL, NEW ENERGIES, ETC. 700 +- HYDROELECTRIC POWER «- DOMESTIC NATURAL GAS -+LNG 11(1.5%) 600 7(1.2%) 500 *+- NUCLEAR ENERGY 0.3(0.1%) 0.7(0.2%) 2(0.5%) FIGURE-1-b LONG TERM FORECAST OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN JAPAN (PUBLISHED BY MITI APR. 1982) (Preliminary Estimate) million kw 300 approx. 300 2.7(1. 3% 200 0.1(0.1%) -— LNG 5.3(4.1%) -- HYDROELECTRIC OIL (including LPG) 1980 1990 2000 (All figures are as at the end of each fiscal year.) -3- (Preliminary Estimate) (Unit: 1,000 MT/year) 1985 1990 a 1995 2000 DEMAND (by MITI) (27,660) 43,000 (46,500) 50,000 SUPPLY 27,660 34,200 29,060 18,500 UNDER OPERATION ALASKA 960 - - - BRUNEI 5,140 5,140 - - DAS ISLAND 2,060 2,060 2,060 - INDONESIA 7,500 7,500 7,500 - INDONESIA (spot) - - - - sub total 15,660 14,700 9,560 = NEW CONTRACTS BADAK, INDONESIA 3,200 3,200 3,200 © 3,200 ARUN, INDONESIA 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 SARAWAK, MALAYSIA 4,500 6,000 6,000 6,000 NORTH WEST SHELF, AUSTRALIA - 6,000 6,000 6,000 INDONESIA (additional) 1,000 1,000 1,000 - sub total 12,000 19,500 19,500 18,500 NECESSARY ADDITIONAL SUPPLY - 8,800 17,440 31,500 PLANNING - (15, 700%16,700) (21,700~24,700) (21,700~%24,700) CANADA - 2,900 2,900 2,900 QATAR 4 6,000 6,000 6,000 CANADA 4 1,800 1,800 1,800 SAKHALIN, USSR = 3,000 3,000 3,000 NATUNA D-ALPHA, INDONESIA - - 6,000~8,000 6,000~8,000 THAILAND : + 2,000~3,000 2,000~3,000 2,000~3,000 FIGURE-2 FORECAST OF JAPANESE LNG SUPPLY AND DEMAND Pr 50,000 1,000 MT/year 50,000 (46,500) DEMAND (BASED ON MITI's FORECAST) 40,000 SUPPLY (IN OPERATION & NEW CONTRACTS) 30,000 20,000 INDONESIA (SPOT) INDONESIA INDONESIA (ADDITIONAL) DAS ISLAND BRUNEI 10,000 FISCAL 1980 FIGURE-3 GAS AND ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES LNG PURCHASES IN 1985 BY SOURCE (Unit: million MT) 10 * INDONESIA LNG(ADDTIONAL 1 million MT) IS NOT INCLUDED TOKYO KANSAI CHUBU TOHOKU KYUSHU ELECTRIC ELECTRIC ELECTRIC GAS ELECTRIC GAS ELECTRIC GAS FIGURE-4 GAS AND ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES LNG PURCHASES IN 1990 BY SOURCE (Unit: million MT) 10.8 10 Gs .w. suetr *INDONESIA LNG(ADDITIONAL 1 million MT) IS NOT INCLUDED i oy CANADA (subject to export license) | aant0SS). 0:8 es (0.15) (0.2) TOKYO CHUBU KANSAI KYUSHU TOHOKU CHUGOKU ELECTRIC ELECTRIC ELECTRIC GAS GAS ELECTRIC ELECTRIC ELECTRIC FIGURE-5 ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES 1976*%1980 (FISCAL) LNG PURCHASES (Unit: million MT) KYUSHU 0.43 CHUBU 0,3 KANSAI 0.2 1976 rT 1978 1979 1980 (3.9) (5.4) (8.1) (24:2-3) (12:27) FIGURE-6 GAS COMPANIES 19761980 (FISCAL) LNG PURCHASES (Unit: million MT) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 (2.0) (2.4) (2.7) (3.1) (3.6) -0T- FIGURE-7 GAS AND ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES LNG PURCHASES T IN 1980 (FISCAL) BY SOURCE (Unit: million MT ) TOKYO ELECTRIC 1.8 KANSAI CHUBU KYUSHU OSAKA ELECTRIC ELECTRIC ELECTRIC GAS Es ALASKA 1.6 TOKYO GAS (0.15) 0.15 TOHO GAS TABLE-3 OPERATING LNG PROJECTS - EXPORTS TO JAPAN USA (ALASKA) ABU DHABI (DAS ISLAND) COUNTRY OF ORIGIN QUANTITY EXPORTED TO JAPAN (1,000 MT /year) 960 2,060 INDONESIA (BADAK) 3,000 INDONESIA (ARUN) 4,500 7,500 Tokyo Electric Tokyo Gas (720)| Tokyo Electric (3,450)Tokyo Electric (240)| Tokyo Gas Osaka Gas (2,060) BUYERS (1,000 MT/year) START-UP Nov. 1969 Dec. 1972 May 1977 20 years 20 years Kansai Electric Chubu Electric Kyushu Electric (1,500) Osaka Gas (1,300) Nippon Steel Corporation (600) Aug. 1977 (2,400) (1,700) 23 years Lumut Das Island South West Ampa 3 76,900 mx 2 75,000 m x 5 NAME OF GAS FIELD North Cook Inlet 125,000 m> x. 5 71,000 m> x 2 87,600 m> x 1 VESSELS USED MARINE DISTANCE TO JAPAN (Km) e800 4,400 12,000 Lho Seumawe Umm Shaif, Zakum Badak | run 125,800 m; a 125,000 m x 6 4,600 6,100 (): NAUTICAL MILE (3,200) (2,400) (6,500) (2,500) (3,300) -ZT- TABLE-4 CONTRACTS FOR NEW LNG PROJECTS -1 COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INDONESIA INDONESIA MALAYSIA (BADAK) (ARUN) (SARAWAK) QUANTITY EXPORTED TO JAPAN (1,000 MT/year) 3200 3,300 6,000 IY Chubu Electric (1,500) Tokyo Electric (400) Tokyo Electric (4,000) Kansai Electric (800) | Tohoku Electric (2,900) | Tokyo Gas (2,000) Osaka Gas (400) Toho Gas (500) BUYERS (1,000 MT/year) ad START-up 1983 1984 1983 Bintulu GAS FIELD VESSEL USED MARINE DISTANCE TO JAPAN (Km) (_): NAUTICAL MILE qo Badak, Nilam etc. 125;000°m:. x: 3 4,600 (2,500) Arun | Central Luconia 125,000 m> x 4 130,000 m> x 5 6,100 4,600 (3,300) (2,500) ————-— TABLE-4 (Cont.) CONTRACTS FOR NEW LNG PROJECTS -2 COUNTRY OF ORIGIN AUSTRALIA (N.W. SHELF) QUANTITY EXPORTED TO JAPAN (1,000 MT/year) Tokyo Electric Chubu Electric (1,600) Chubu Electric Khushu Electric (300) Kansai Electric Chugoku Electric (300) -€T- BUYERS (1,000 MT/year) START-UP PERIOD OF CONTRACT Chugoku Electric Osaka Gas Kyushu Electric Toho Gas Tokyo Gas Osaka Gas Toho Gas 1986 (550) (150) 19 Years 20 years LOADING PORT GAS FIELD VESSELS USED Dampiar North Rankin 125,000 m> x 5 MARINE DISTANCE TO JAPAN (Km) (_): NAUTICAL MILE 5,900 (3,200) Grassy Point Alberta,etc. 125,000 m3 x 5 6,600 (3,600) -pI- -FIGURE-8 LNG IMPORTED TO JAPAN (1) PROJECTS IN OPERATION KEY: - PROJECT IN OPERATION 1 LOADING PORT ( ) MARINE DISTANCE TO JAPAN(N.MILE) os ABU DHABI [Das Island] (6,500} ‘oe: (] ’ 4, INDONESIA [Lhokseumawe] (3,300) aE ae p eA WI SS. BRUNEI [Lumut] ALASKA [Kenai] (2,400) oS INDONESIA [Bongtang] (2,500) (3, 200} -ST- FIGURE-9 LNG IMPORTED TO JAPAN (2) PROJECTS (NEW CONTRACTS/PLANNING) : at = [ ] GAS FIELD MARINE DISTANCE TO JAPAN(N.MILE) QATAR [NORTH FIELD] (6,600) THAILAND [off shore] (2,900) SARAWAK [Central Luconia] (2,500) ; o INDONESIA [Badak] (2,500) INDONESIA [Arun] (3,290) / ‘s oe, ZB Seman INDONESIA [Natuna area] (2,500) AUSTRALIA [North Rankin] (3,200) » TABLE-5 AVERAGE CIF PRICES - LNG AND CRUDE OIL Unit: US$/MMBTU ALASKA BRUNEI a INDONESIA AVERAGE CRUDE OIL 1969 0.52 0.52 Oust 1970 0.52 0.52 0.31 aa: 0.54 0.54 0.38 12 0.55 0.49 0.55 0.44 13 0.57 0.54 0.56 0.57 74 0.73 1.58 1.35 1.89 75 1.36 1.78 1.68 2.07 76 1.64 1.87 1.83 2.20 Wi 1.95 2002 2.00 257 2207 2.36 78 2.18 247 2220 2279 2.38 pier 79 2.30 2.36 2.30 3.42 2.83 3.24 80 4.85 4.91 5.50 5.24 5.14 5.70 81 Jan. 5.82 5.88 6.09 5.81 5.87 6.17 Feb. 5.88 5.88 6.63 5.60 5.88 6.44 Mar. 5.92 5.93 6.65 5.59 5.80 6.60 Apr. 6.02 6.00 - 5.51 5.72 6.64 May 6.01 6.03 6.70 5.31 5.77 6.63 Jun. 6.16 6.46 6.67 5.18 5.76 6.60 Jul. 5.92 5.97 6.63 5.29 5.61 6.51 Aug. 5.92 5.91 6.61 5.00 5.51 6.41 Sep. 5.90 5.90 6.65 5.62 5.87 6.35 Oct. 5.92 5.91 6.66 5.97 6.05 6.33 Nov. 5.96 5.99 6.61 6.12 6.13 6.32 Dec. 5.90 5.89 6.50 6.03 6.04 6.22 81 Jan.wDec. 5.94 5.98 6.57 5.57 > 35 gg3 6.44 82 Jan. 5.80 5.81 6.46 5.97 5.98 6.22 Feb. 5.76 5.82 6.42 5.94 5.96 6.19 Mar. 5.76 5.79 6.43 5.84 5.91 6.15 Apr. 5.73 5.78 6.37 5.68 5.76 6.04 May 5.85 5.80 6.26 5.80 5.86 6.02 Jun. 5.70 5.77 6.19 5.51 5.70 5.91 Jul. 5.74 5.78 6.18 5.40 5.63 6.00 Aug. 5.75 5.78 6.18 5.37 5.57 5.91 Sep. 5.74 5.78 6.16 5.32 5.60 5.90 Soe (MOF Statistics) FIGURE-10 unit: US$/MMBTU AVERAGE CIF PRICES - LNG AND CRUDE OIL ALASKA BRUNEI DAS ISLAND 6.00 ———————= INDONESIA CRUDE OIL 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0 FISCAL 69 70 ad 72 a3 74 7S 76 77 78 79 80 81 =17= -8T- TABLE-6 ee ee ee ee cr nit COMPOSITION Methane Ethane Propane Butane Pentane Nitrogen SPECIFIC GRAVITY GROSS HAET VALUE Ennieerer teeter TYPICAL SPECIFICATION OF LNG IMPORTED TO JAPAN INDONESIA ALASKA BRUNEI ABU DHABI BADAK ARUN — MOL & Cc) 99.8 89.83 77.2~ 89.4 89.95~90.09 87.82 Cy 0.1 5.89 9.1~21.3 5.35 ~ 5.46 7.99 c, - 2.92 1.3%1.4 3.13 ~ 3.14 3.07 c, - as 0.2 1.37 ~ 1.39 1.04 C. - 0.04 - 0.04 0.02 N, Oud 0.02 0.1 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.4235 0.4636 0.4703 0.4620 0.4620 MMBTU /MT 52.6 51.594 51.659 51.79 51.79 1397 1,226 1,262 1,226 1,215 TON-CUBIC METRE CONVERSION nee yur | } 4 | } FIGURE-11 LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN (as of April, 1982] Higashi Niigata (under construction) Tohoku Electric Negishi Sodegaura Tokyo Electric, Tokyo Gas Kita Kyushu Kyushu Electric, Nippoin Steel Corp. Futtsu (under construction) Tokyo Electric anai (under construction) Chugoku Electric Higashi Ohgishima (under construction) Tokyo Electric Chita I enboku_I Chita II enboku II Chubu Electric, Toho Gas Osaka Gas imei I Kasumigaura (under construction) i ita Chubu Electric Shin Ohit Kansai Electric (under construction) att imeji II Kyushu Electric Kansai Electric, Osaka Gas -07- RECEIVING TERMINALS SODEGAURA LOCATION OWNER CONSUMER ('000 MT) (m°) TANK CAPACITY (_): Indicates tanks under construc-— tion or under planning TABLE-7 LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN -1 Chiba Prefecture Tokyo Gas (Operator) Tokyo Electric Tokyo Electric 5,060 Tokyo Gas 720 62,000 60,000 58,000 45,000 (130,000 x 4) NEGISHI Kanagawa Prefecture Tokyo Gas (Operator) Tokyo Electric Tokyo Electric 1,170 Tokyo Gas 580 95,000 60,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 10,000 SENBOKU NO.1 CHITA NO. 1 Osaka Prefecture Osaka Gas (Operator) Osaka Gas 45,000 x 4 Aichi Prefecture Toho Gas (Operator) Chubu Electric Chubu Electric Toho Ges 1,550 150 80,000 x 4 -T7- TABLE-7 RECEIVING TERMINALS SENBOKU NO. 2 LOCATION OWNER CONSUMER ('000 MT) TANK CAPACITY (m>) Indicates tanks Under construc- tion or under planning cee (Cont.) LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN -2 HIMEJI NO. 1 Osaka Prefecture Hyogo Prefecture Osaka Gas (Operator) Kansai Electric (Operator) Osaka Gas Electric Kansai Electric 75,000 x 12 (80,000 KITA KYUSHU Fukuoka Prefecture Kyushu Electric (Operator) Nippon Steel Corporation Kyushu Electric 1,500 Nippon Steel Corporation 600 60,000 x 6 (60,000 x 2) -@- TABLE-8 LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN UNDER CONSTRUCTION at RECEIVING TERMINAL LOCATION OWNER CONSUMER ('000 MT) PLANNED (m°) TANK CAPACITY HIGASHI OOGISHIMA Kanagawa Prefecture Tokyo Electric Tokyo Electric 4,000 (60,000 x 7) a) HIMEJI NO.2 Hyogo Prefecture Osaka Gas Kansai Electric Osaka Gas 1,050 Kansai Electric 1,800 (80,000 x 11) CHITA NO. 2 Aichi Prefecture Chubu Electric Toho Gas Chubu Electric Toho Gas (80,000 x 6) 2,500 700 HIGASHI NIIGATA Niigata Prefecture Tohoku Electric Tohoku Electric 2,600 Hokuriku and other gas companies 300 (100,000 x 2) ( 80,000 x 4) -€Z- TABLE- LOCATION CONSUMER PLANNED TANK CAPACITY 8. (Cont) {'000 MT) (m) Ohita Prefecture Kyushu Electric Kyushu Electric (80,000 x 8) Yamaguchi Prefecture Chugoku Electric Chugoku Electric (80,000 x 7) LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS IN JAPAN UNDER CONSTRUCTION -2 RECEIVING TERMINAL SHIN OHITA YANATI FUTTSU Chiba Prefecture Tokyo Electric Tokyo Electric (90,000 x 6) KASUMIGAURA Mie Prefecture Chubu Electric Chubu Electric (80,000 x 4) TABLE-9 LNG VESSELS USED FOR LNG PROJECT TO JAPAN Speed Capacity Year of ‘ of Vessel Owner (knots) (M3) Type Constcuction Shipyard ARCTIC LNG KOCKUMS MEKANIESKA\ 18.25 & ARCTIC TOKYO a pRANSPORTATION uel 200 es GRE Sten aoa) a8? VERKSTAD (SWEDEN) < a POLAR LNG 18.25 " POLAR ALASKA maaeaona aes Ces 71,500 GAZ TRANSPORT (M) 1969 CHANTIERE DE GADINIA — oC 18.00 75,000 ‘TECHNIGAZ (M) 1972 L' ATLANTIQUE (FRANCE) GADILA ° 18.00 75,000 TECHNIGAZ (M) 1973 . Bt ag TANKERS 18.00 75,000 TECHNIGAZ (M) 1973 : H i] z |GASTRANA ® 18.00 - 75,000 ‘TECHNIGAZ (M) 1974 + Dp “ i m |GEOMITRA , 18.00 76,900 GAS TRANSPORT (M) 1975 C.N.I.M. (FRANCE) CHANTIERS NAVAL DE| 5 18.00 197 GOULDIA 75,000 TECHNIGAZ (M) 975 ee GENOTA : 18.00 76,900 GAZ TRANSPORT (M) 1975 C.N.I.M. (FRANCE) MOSS ROSENBERG HILLI GOTAAS LARSEN 19.50 125,000 MOSS (S) 1975 Sean COONEY) GIMI » 19.50 125,000 MOSS (S) 1976 " a Zz 3 « |KHANNUR : 19.50 125,000 MOSS (S) 1977 : 4 nan +1 |NORMAN LADY LEIF HOEGH 18.00 87,600 MOSS (S) 1973 " Ee HOWALDTSWERKE « |GOLAR FREEZE § GOTAAS-LARSEN 19.50 125,000 MOSS (S) 1977 s {wEST GERMANY) HOEGH GANDRIA LEIF HOEGH 18.50 125,000 MOSS (S) 1977 me GENERAL =| ARIES LNG TRANSPORT INC. 20.40 125,000 MOSS (S) 1977 (USA) a CAPRICORN LIQUEGAS TRANSPORT 19.00 125,000 MOSS (S) 1978 : < CHEROKEE I . “, | GEMINI aerentae cone. 20.40 125,000 MOSS (S) 1978 n cs) CHEROKEE II me vz, [LEO caapcsae Gonck 20.40 125,000 MOSS (S) 1978 ° a CHEROKEE V 4 2 | LIBRA aiveotncl cage. 20.40 125,000 MOSS (S) 1979 4 CHEROKEE III . TAURUS SareoT aC TSooee 20.40 125,000 MOSS (S) 1979 CHEROKEE IV " VIRGO SHIPPING: CORP 20.40 125,000 MOSS (S) 1979 aid * (M) Membrane (S) Self-Support