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Supplement Kenai Peninsula Power Supply & Transmission Study 1982
RAI 019 vot. 2 SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY R. W. BECK AND ASSOCIATES, INC ENGINEERS AND CONSULTANTS December 1982 | ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY / RAT 5 | 019 ah Vil 2, , nd for the use a DATE ISSUED TO reco: one a oes s and books independent ient and in- preparation SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY R. W. BECK AND ASSOCIATES, INC ENGINEERS AND CONSULTANTS December 1982 Bee | ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY R. W. Beck AND ASSOCIATES, INC ENGINEERS AND CONSULTANTS RO. BOX 2400 TOWER BUILDING P.O. BOX 6818 ‘SITKA, ALASKA 7TH AVENUE AT OLIVE WAY KETCHIKAN, ALASKA 99835 SEATTLE, WASHINGTON 98101 99901 206-622-5000 FILENO. US-1559-ES1-AF December 7, 1982 3023 Alaska Power Authority 334 West Fifth Avenue Anchorage, Alaska 99501 Gentlemen: Subject: Supplemental Kenai Peninsula Power Supply and Transmission Study In accordance with the terms of our agreement, we have prepared and herewith submit the report on the Supplemental Kenai Peninsula Power Supply and Transmission Study. Our principal conclusions and recommendations are identified in the Conclusions and Recommendations Section of this report. The details of the study are included in the subsequent sections of the report. We appreciate the assistance and cooperation given to us by the staff of the Alaska Power Authority in preparation of this report. Respectfully submitted, R. W. BECK AND ASSOCIATES, INC. Sau: CMe cae) ||| Kenneth P. Merriman Vice President R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. CERTIFICATE OF ENGINEER SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY The technical material and data contained in this report were prepared under the supervision and direction of the undersigned, whose seals as profes- sional engineers are affixed below. SEEN AQ, FRE OE AEM 7 R. As My oy ace 9p ax; 49TH 4 7 aw 3 neal coe fell Sete E to Engi 4 o."¥ Lowell Shelton, i of Pe uaa deals a es. No. EE-8903 Sof R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. Sper. we Nees WS seer eeerernerecconevscvscwcovesocs SSN ene OF ALY Ze “ser Kenneth P. Metriman Vice President R. We Beck and Associates, Inc. A F ppcennetnay, — We Section Number SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS Letter of Transmittal Certificate of Engineer Table of Contents List of Tables INTRODUCTION Introduction Scope Study Assumptions Conclusions and Recommendations Pee e ° FwNe LOADS AND RESOURCES Load Forecasts Resources, Economic Lifetimes and Reserves Alternative Plans Transmission Facilities NNN NH ee PFwWNr ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 3.1 Assumptions 3.2 Results APPENDIX A - Data Sources Page Number Pree | WN LIST OF TABLES Number Title Forecast of Peak and Energy Loads for the Railbelt Area of Alaska Existing Resources Peak Load - Resource Comparison Energy - Resource Comparison Plan AA Revised - Bradley Lake at 135 MW with Susitna Plan AB Revised - Bradley Lake at 90 MW with Susitna Plan D Revised - Combustion Turbines with Susitna Plan E - Combined Cycle Combustion Turbines NNNNNNDN LD . ete Gee totes WNHre WN ee . t > 3.1-1 New Generation Plant Data 3.2-1 Summary of Economic Analyses Cumulative Present-Worth of Alternatives' Costs 3.2-2 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan AA Revised - Bradley Lake at 135 MW with Susitna - With Peak Period Oil Generation 322-3 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan AA Revised - Bradley Lake at 135 MW with Susitna - Without Peak Period Oil Generation 342-4 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan AB Revised - Bradley Lake at 90 MW with Susitna - With Peak Period Oil Generation 3.2-5 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan AB Revised - Bradley Lake at 90 MW with Susitna - Without Peak Period Oil Generation 3.2-6 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan D Revised - Combustion Turbines with Susitna - With Peak Period Oil Generation 3.2-7 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan D Revised - Combustion Turbines with Susitna - Without Peak Period Oil Generation 3.2-8 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan E - Combined Cycle Combustion Tur- bines - With Peak Period Oil Generation 3.2-9 Railbelt Economic Analysis - Plan E - Combined Cycle Combustion Tur- bines - Without Peak Period Oil Generation SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction This report is a supplement (the "Supplemental Study") to an Alaska Power Authority report entitled Kenai Peninsula Power Supply and Transmission Study, prepared by R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. dated June 1982 (the "June 1982 Study"). The June 1982 Study presented several alternative generation plans for the Railbelt area of Alaska and specifically addressed the cost effects of including the Bradley Lake Project, to be located on the Kenai Peninsula, as a potential generating resource. The Supplemental Study provides further cost effects of the Bradley Lake Project under different assumptions for projected load requirements of the Kenai Peninsula and the entire Railbelt. This report is intended to be used in conjunction with the June 1982 Study although some duplication of certain items has been made to assist in independent interpretation of the results presented herein. 1.2 Scope The Alaska Power Authority (Authority) has contracted with R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. (RWBI) to provide comparative economic analyses of alterna- tive generation plans for the Railbelt area as a supplement to similar analyses developed for the Kenai Peninsula Power Supply and Transmission Study prepared by RWBI and dated June 1982. As requested by the Authority, the primary differ- ence between the June 1982 and supplemental analyses is that the supplemental analyses incorporates a lower load forecast. 1-2 Based on the load requirements indicated in the supplemental forecast, three of the alternative generation plans formulated in the June 1982 study were reevaluated for timing and size of projected future generating resources. All of these alternatives include the Susitna project. Additionally, a new alternative generation plan was created in which the entire future load require- ments of the Railbelt are supplied with combined cycle combustion turbine natur- al gas generation. For each of these alternatives, two economic analyses were prepared calculating the present worth of all capital, operating and fuel costs estimated to be incurred over a 50-year period. The two analyses for each plan model the effects of two different peak period fuel usage scenarios. 1.3 Study Assumptions This supplemental study was based primarily on existing data sources and assumptions defined in the June 1982 Study. Any new assumptions or data sources used in this supplemental study are documented throughout the body of the report. Steps have been taken to assure the comparability of the supple- mental analyses to the analyses provided in the June 1982 Study. The following major assumptions have been used in preparing the Supple- mental Study: ° Load forecasts are based on estimates for the low economic scenario as shown in the Railbelt Electric Power Alternatives Study: Evaluation of Railbelt Electric Energy Plans by Battelle Pacific Northwest Labora- tories, February 1982.1 These forecasts do not include any provisions for transmission or distribution losses. ° All estimated capital, operating and fuel costs associated with vari- ous generation plants are the same as used for the June 1982 Study. o Additions of transmission facilities as developed for the June 1982 Study will remain the same. 1.4 Conclusions and Recommendations Based on the results of the economic analyses of the alternative re- source plans for the Railbelt (Section 3), Plan D - Revised (Susitna with Combustion Turbines) was found to have the lowest cost. The two alternatives including the Bradley Lake Project had slightly higher costs and the alterna- tive using only combined cycle combustion turbines had the highest cost. Of the two Bradley Lake alternatives analyzed, the plan with Bradley Lake at 90 MW had a lower present worth than the plan with Bradley Lake at 135 MW. These results primarily show the sensitivity of the analyses to changes in load requirements when compared to the results of the June 1982 Study. As expected, the lower load requirements used in the Supplemental Study tend to reduce the projected benefits of the Bradley Lake Project over con- tinued use of combustion turbines prior to operation of the Susitna Project. These reduced benefits are still not great enough to rescind our previous rec- ommendation of including the Bradley Lake Project in the Railbelt generation plan. The results do raise certain questions concerning the amount of Bradley Lake capacity necessary to supply load requirements however. Due to the scope of our responsibility in preparing this report, we did not investigate the overall accuracy of the load forecast projections used. It does appear that certain assumptions used by Battelle in preparing the fore- cast may contradict the assumptions used in defining the generation alterna-— tives primarily in regards to large future generation projects. Reevaluation of these assumptions and their effects on the load forecast and generation plans could provide significant changes to the overall results of the economic analyses. Further, the Battelle forecast is of peak and energy sales to cus- tomers and does not include any line losses, which historically have ranged from 5 to 12 percent of total requirements. In making any comparisons to other forecasts of total regional power requirements, losses should be added to the sales figures. Neglecting losses provides a conservative estimate of future generation requirements as these requirements would be greater if losses were included. We recommend that if the Authority considers the load forecast used in this study to be a reasonable projection of future load requirements, further studies be performed to determine the recommended capacity of the Bradley Lake Project. SECTION 2 SUPPLEMENT LOADS AND RESOURCES 2.1 Load Forecasts A power forecast, in addition to the June 1982 Kenai Peninsula Power Supply and Transmission Study forecast, was prepared for the Greater Anchorage, Kenai Peninsula and Fairbanks areas. This forecast of peak demand and energy was based on the Railbelt Electric Power Alternatives Study: Evaluation of Railbelt Electric Energy Plans by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Feb- ruary 1982.1 The particular forecast used was low economic scenario, Plan 1A which includes the following basic assumptions: 9 Future spending of the State of Alaska (expected to be a major driving force in the Alaska economy in future years) is held constant in real per capita tems. ° The Upper Susitna Hydroelectric Project will not be constructed. ° There will be relatively more coal mining and reclamation than there would be with the Upper Susitna Project. 9 A coal export mine at Beluga will not be developed. The projection of population upon which this scenario is based shows the following growth rates for the Greater Anchorage, Kenai Peninsula and Fair- banks areas combined: 1980-1985 3.49% compound annual growth rate 1985-1990 1.59% compound annual growth rate 1990-1995 0.75% compound annual growth rate 1995-2000 1.26% compound annual growth rate The load factors in this forecast scenario vary from a low of 55.2 to 55.9 with an average of about 55.6. This forecast includes only utility-provided power and does not in- clude any military, industry-supplied electricity or small non-utility genera- tors. The potential purchase of power by these entities from utilities in future years was also excluded. The Battelle forecast is of sales only and therefore does not include system losses as did the forecast of total requirements used in the June 1982 Study. The Battelle study provided load projections in 5-year increments for the geographic areas of Glennallen-Valdez, Fairbanks-Tanana Valley and combines the Greater Anchorage-Cook Inlet loads. Adjustments were therefore made to ensure consistancy between this forecast and those used in the June 1982 Study. Values for years in which the Battelle forecast was not provided were calcu- lated by mathematical interpolation. Glennallen-Valdez loads were excluded and the Greater Anchorage loads were separated from the Kenai Peninsula loads using the same relative split as was used in the June 1982 Study. This forecast (Table 2.1-1) shows as the following compound annual growth rates in peak demand energy sales: Greater Kenai Fairbanks —- Total Anchorage Peninsula Tanana Valley Railbelt Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy 1982-1985 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.7 5.8 5.9 3.4 3.4 1985-1990 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 10.3 10.2 5.1 4.9 1990-1995 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 (1.0) (1.0) 1.0 1.0 1995-2000 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 (6.1) (6.1) (0.6) (0.5) 2999-2002 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.3 (2.3) (2.4) 1.4 1.4 2.2 Resources, Economic Lifetimes and Reserves 2.2.1 Resources Existing resources used to serve loads in the Railbelt area are as- sumed to continue operation throughout their estimated economic lifetimes. A detailed list of the existing resources used for the analyses included in this report is shown in Table 2.2-1. This list is identical to the list of existing resources shown in the June 1982 Study. As indicated in the June 1982 Study, no diesel generating plants or military and industrial generating resources have been included in the list. 2.2.2 Economic Lifetimes The economic lifetimes of the various types of generating plants are based on the assumptions used by Battelle in its report.! These assumptions are as follows: Hydroelectric - 50 years Natural gas-fired C.T. - 30 years Oil-fired C.T. - 20 years Coal-fired steam turbine - 30 years Applying these lifetimes to the installation date of the existing generation facilities results in the retirement schedule shown in Table 2.2-l. The two existing hydroelectric plants, Cooper Lake and Eklutna, are assumed to be available throughout the study period. Use of these economic lifetimes in the analyses simply provides a means for including the effects of plant retirements. Actual retirement of any unit could vary significantly due to a wide range of uncertainties. 2.2.3 Reserves As assumed in the June 1982 Study, Railbelt forced outage reserves are assumed to be approximately 200 MW based on the coincidental outage of the two largest generation units in Anchorage. Actual reserve requirements may vary significantly due to policy and operational requirements. 2-4 2.2.4 Load/Resource Analysis Based on the load forecasts described in Section 2.1, existing re- sources shown in Table 2.2-1 and the foregoing retirement and reserve assump- tions, an annual peak load and existing resource comparison is shown in Table 2.2-2. Using the same source of information, annual energy loads and existing energy resources are shown in Table 2.2-3. These comparisons do not include the addition of any new resources. Resource surpluses and deficits for each of the three areas, Kenai, Anchorage and Fairbanks, do not include the effects of transmission interties between them except for the sharing of reserves. 2.3 Alternative Plans A total of four alternative plans of future generation and transmis— sion facilities required to meet projected Railbelt area load requirements for the period 1982-2001 were developed. Three of these plans are modifications of plans developed for the June 1982 Study with changes as necessary to accommo- date the differences in load requirements. The fourth alternative was formu- lated as a part of the Supplemental Study. Each of the alternatives incorpor- ates the aforementioned assumptions of resource retirement and system reserve requirements. Future combustion turbine resources have been sized and are projected to begin operation as necessary to meet load requirements. The Susitna Project and Bradley Lake Project are assumed to begin operation in 1993 and 1988, re- spectively. Except for Plan E, all alternative plans are revisions to plans originally developed for the June 1982 Study. Future generation requirements have been changed as necessary to reflect differences in load requirements however, transmission facilities indicated in the June 1982 Study were not changed. The term "revised" as used in the following plan descriptions refers to an alternative developed for the June 1982 Study and revised for the Supple- mental Study. The plans are as follows: Plan Title AA-Revised Bradley Lake at 135 MW with Susitna AB-Revised Bradley Lake at 90 MW with Susitna D -Revised Combustion Turbines with Susitna E Combined Cycle Combustion Turbines 2.3.1 Plan AA-Revised - Bradley Lake at 135 MW With Susitna Plan AA-Revised includes the Bradley Lake Project at 135 MW and the Susitna Project. Differences between Plan AA and Plan AA-Revised are that the 20 MW combustion turbine to be installed at Bernice Lake in 1983 for Plan AA is not required for Plan AA-Revised. This is due to the reduced load requirements of the Kenai Peninsula as projected by the load forecast used in preparing Plan AA-Revised. The results of this load resource plan are shown in Table 2.3-1l. Following is a list of the new resources and transmission lines for this plan: Year Resource/Transmission Line Rating 1984 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, First Phase 138 kV, 70 MW 1988 Bradley Lake Project 135 MW 1988 Anchorage to Soldotna Intertie 230 kV 1988 Soldotna to Homer Intertie 115 kV 1993 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, Second Phase 2-345 kV 1993 Susitna Project (Watana I and II) 1,020 MW 2.3.2 Plan AB-Revised -— Bradley Lake at 90 MW with Susitna Plan AB-Revised includes the Bradley Lake Project at 90 MW and the Susitna Project. Plan AB-Revised differs from Plan AB in that the two combus- tion turbines installed prior to operation of the Susitna Project in Plan AB are not required in Plan AB-Revised. This is due to lower load requirements. Removal of the two combustion turbines does, however, create an imbalance in the amount of new generation added for Plans AA-Revised and AB-Revised. In the June 1982 Study, Plans AA and AB added the same amount of generation in each case. The reduced load requirements indicate that it is not necessary to in- clude the full amount of capacity represented by Bradley Lake at 135 MW to supply peak loads. The results of this load resource plan are shown in Table 2.3-2. Fol- lowing is a list of the new resources and transmission lines for this plan: Year Resource/Transmission Line Rating 1984 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, First Phase 138 kV, 70 MW 1988 Bradley Lake Project 90 MW 1988 Anchorage to Soldotna Intertie 230 kV 1988 Soldotna to Homer Intertie 115 kV 1993 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, Second Phase 2-345 kV 1993 Susitna Project (Watana I and II) 1,020 MW 2.3.3 Plan D-Revised - Combustion Turbines with Susitna Plan D-Revised includes additional combustion turbines to provide generation capacity prior to operation of the Susitna Project. It differs from Plan D in that less generation capacity is required due to lower load require- ments. Plan D-Revised does not include the same capacity of new generating resources as Plans AA-Revised or AB-Revised. As indicated previously under the description of Plan AB-Revised, the reduced load requirements assumed by this Supplemental Study do not warrant the inclusion of new generating capacity represented by the magnitude of the Bradley Lake Project at 135 MW. The results of this load resource plan are shown in Table 2.3-3. Fol- lowing is a list of the new resources and transmission lines for this plan: Year Resource/Transmission Line Rating 1984 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, First Phase 138 kV, 70 MW 1987 Combustion Turbine at Bernice Lake 20 MW 1990 Combustion Turbine at Beluga 50 MW 1993 Susitna Project (Watana I and II) 1,020 MW 1993 Anchorage to Soldotna Intertie 239 kV 1993 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, Second Phase 2-345 kV 2.3.4 Plan E - Combined Cycle Combustion Turbines Plan E uses combined cycle combustion turbines as the only new re- source to supply loads in the Railbelt. Four existing simple cycle units, Bernice Lake 3 & 4 and Beluga 3 & 5, are to be retrofitted with waste heat recovery systems to supply 20 MW and 50 MW additional capacity, respectively. A 200 MW combined cycle combustion turbine plant is to be added at Beluga in both 1992 and 1996. These additional plants will provide enough capacity to supply load requirements throughout the end of the study period. Transmission lines to be included in this plan are the same as for Plan D-Revised. Although the Susitna Project is not included in Plan E, it will be necessary to construct transmission lines similar to those needed with the Susitna plans in order to supply the Railbelt's loads from the Beluga site as is envisioned in Plan E. These transmission lines are nearly identical to those derived for Plan C (Combustion Turbines with Coal at Beluga) of the June 1982 Study. The results of this load resource plan are shown in Table 2.3-4. Fol- lowing is a list of the new resources and transmission lines for this plan: Year Resource/Transmission Line Rating 1984 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, First Phase 138 kV, 70 MW 1987 Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine at Bernice Lake 20 MW Retrofit Bernice Lake 3 & 4 with Steam Cycle 1990 Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine at Beluga 50 MW Retrofit Beluga 3 & 5 with Steam Cycle 1992 Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine at Beluga 200 MW 1993 Anchorage to Soldotna Intertie 230 kV 1993 Anchorage to Fairbanks Intertie, Second Phase 2-345 kV 1996 Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine at Beluga 200 MW 2.4 Transmission Facilities Due to the limited scope of this supplemental study, no changes were made in the transmission alternatives derived in the June 1982 Study. Refer- ence is made to Section 2.4 and the associated figure and table of that study for complete descriptions of the transmission plans. R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY Forecast of Peak and Energy Loads for the Railbelt Area of Alaska Greater Anchorage Kenai Peninsula Fairbanks Area Total Railbelt Peak (MW) Sales (GWh) Peak (MW) Sales (GWh) Peak (MW) Sales (GWh) Peak (MW) Sales (GWh) 1982 360 1,760 79 387 130 557 553 2,704 1983 370 1,809 82 397 138 591 573 2,797 1984 380 1,858 84 408 146 626 592 2,892 1985 390 1,907 86 419 154 661 612 2,987 1986 403 1,972 89 433 173 744 646 3,149 1987 417 2,037 92 447 193 827 682 3,311 1988 430 2,101 94 462 212 910 715 3,473 1989 444 2,166 97 476 232 993 751 3,635 1990 457 2,231 100 490 251 1,076 785 3,797 1991 465 2,272 102 499 249 1,065 792 3,836 1992 474 2,313 104 508 246 1,055 800 3,876 1993 482 2,354 106 517 244 1,044 808 3,915 1994 491 2,395 108 526 | 241 1,034 816 3,955 1995 499 2,436 110 535 ; 239 1,023 823 3,994 1996 505 2,467 lll 542 226 968 818 3,977 1997 512 2,497 112 549 213 912 813 3,958 1998 518 2,528 114 555 200 857 808 3,940 1999 525 2,558 115 562 187 801 803 3,921 2000 531 2,589 116 568 174 746 797 3,903 2001 543 2,648 119 581 170 728 808 3,957 2002 555 2,708 122 594 166 710 819 4,012 Source: Railbelt Electric Power Alternatives Study; Evaluation of Railbelt Electric Energy Plans, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories Feb. 1982. Excludes Glennallen-Valdez. A diversity factor of .971 was multipled by the sum of peaks for the three load centers, assuming the peak loads will not coincide. No losses are included. T-T°? Gavel TABLE 2.2-1 R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY EXISTING RESOURCES Retirement Capacity Resource Year(1) Type (MW) Kenai Area Bernice Lake 1 1993 NGT 8.85 Bernice Lake 2 2002 NGT 18.95 Bernice Lake 3 2008 NGT 24.3 Bernice Lake 4 2012 NGT 24.3 Cooper Lake - Hydro 15.0 Anchorage Area Beluga 1 1999 NGT 15.25 Beluga 2 1998 NGT 15.25 Beluga 3 2003 NGT 53.3 Beluga 4 2006 NGT 10.0 Beluga 5 2005 NGT 58.5 Beluga 6 2006 NGT 72.9 Beluga 7 2008 NGT 72.9 Beluga 8 2012 cCccT 54.0 International 1 1995 NGT 14.0 International 2 2005 NGT 14.0 International 3 2001 NGT 18.5 Knik Arm 1-5 1990 NGST 14.5 AMLE&P 1 1992 NGT 15.13 AML&P 2 1994 NGT 15.13 AMLE&P 3 1998 NGT 18.7 AML&P 4 2002 NGT 30.0 AML&P 5 2005 NGT 40.0 AMLE&P 6 2009 cccT 33.0 AML&P 7 2005 NGT 79.3 Fairbanks Area(2) Chena 1 1994 Coal 5 Chena 2 1982 Coal 2 Chena 3 1982 Coal 2 GT 4 1983 OGT 7 Chena 5 2000 Coal 20 Chena 6 1996 ocT 29 Healy 1997 Coal 25 North Pole 1 1996 OGT 65 North Pole 2 1997 OGT 65 Zehnder 1 1991 OGT 18 Zehnder 2 1992 OGT 18 Zehnder 3 1995 OGT 3 NTG = Natural gas-fired combustion turbine OGT = Oil-fired combustion turbine CCCT = Combined cycle combustion turbine Coal = Coal-fired steam turbine NGST = Natural gas-fired steam turbine NOTES: Data are from the Alaska Power Administration's Bradley Lake Project Report2, unless noted other- wise. (1) The retirement schedule is based on the on-line date defined in Commonwealth Associates’ Trans- mission System Data3 and the following economic lifes defined by Battelle's Railbelt Study:! Generation Life Oil-fired combustion turbine 20 years Gas-fired combustion turbine 30 years Coal-fired steam 30 years Hydroelectric 50 years (2) The Fairbanks area data are based on data from Commonwealth Associate's Transmission System Data 3. R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY PEAK LOAD-RESOURCE COMPARISON 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1998 2000 2001 KENAI PENINSULA | — a — ~~ — — ~~ a ~~ — ~~ ~~ ~~ - a ~~ PEAK LOAD (MW) 79.00 82.00 84.00 86.00 89.00 92.00 94.00 97.00 100.00 102,00 104,00 106.00 108,00 110.00 111.00 112.00 114.00 115.00 116.00 119.00 RESOURCES 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91,40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 RETIREMENTS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.90 -8.90 -8.90 NET RESOURCES "91.40 91.40 "91.40 "91.40 "91.40 "51.40 51.40 "92.50 92 «50 SURPLUS (DEF.) 12.40 9.40 2.40 -0.60 -2.60 -5.60 -8.60 -25.50 -27.50 -28.50 -29.50 -31.50 -32.50 -33.50 -36.50 GREATER ANCHORAGE PEAK LOAD (MW) 360.00 370.00 380.00 390.00 403.00 417.00 430.00 444.00 499,00 505.00 512.00 518.00 525.00 531.00 543.00 RESOURCES 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 RETIREMENTS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 58.70 -58.70 58.70 -77.40 = -77.40 -77.40 -77.40 NET RESOURCES 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 674.30 "615.60 615.60 615.60 596.90 596-90 596.90 596.90 SURPLUS (DEF.) 314.30 304.30 294,30 284.30 271.30 257.30 244.30 230.30 116.60 110.60 103.60 78.90 71.90 65.90 53.90 FAIRBANKS PEAK LOAD (MW) 130,00 138.00 146.00 154.00 173.00 193,00 212.00 232.00 251.00 249.00 244,00 241.00 239.00 226.00 213.00 200.00 «187.00 174.00 170.00 RESOURCES 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 262.00 RETIREMENTS -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 ~-34.00 -52.00 -52.00 -58.00 -152.00 242.00 -262.00 NET RESOURCES 258.00 251.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 fi “228.00 “210,00 210-00 204-00 110.00 20.00 20,00 20.00 0.00 0.00 SURPLUS (DEF.) 128.00 113,00 100,00 92,00 73.00 53.00 34.00 14,00 -5.00 =21.00 --36.00 -34.00 31.00 -35.00 -116.00 -193.00 -180.00 -167.00 -174.00 -170.00 TOTAL RAILBELT PEAK LOAD (HW) $69.00 590.00 610,00 630.00 665.00 702.00 736.00 773.00 808.00 816.00 824.00 832.00 840.00 848.00 842.00 837.00 832.00 827.00 821.00 832.00 RESOURCES (MW) 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 1027.70 RETIREMENTS -4.00 -11.00 -16.00 -16.00 16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -81.60 “105.60 -125.60 -219 AVAILABLE RES. 1023.70 1016.70 1011.70 3011.70 1011.70 1011.70 1011.70 1011.70 “946.10 “922-10 “902.10 LESS: RESERVES -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 201 0 ~201 0 -200.00 : = NET RESOURCES “923.70 616.70 811.70 611.70 “gll.70 811-70 746.10 722.10 702.10 SURPLUS (DEFICIT) 254.70 226.70 201.70 181.70 109.70 75.70 -77.90 “117.90 -145.90 e@-2°% A1IGVL R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY ENERGY-RESOURCE COMPARISON 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 KENAI PENINSULA ~ ~~ a — ~~ ~~ —_ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~~ a mee ~~ ~~ = LOAD (GWh)~—«-387,00 397.00 419.00 447.00 462.00 476.00 490.00 499.00 508.00 517.00 526.00 535.00 542,00 549.00 555.00 562.00 568.00 581.00 RESOURCES (GWh) 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 560.50 RETIREMENTS 9.00 0.00 0.00 =54.60 =54.60 =54.60 =54.60 -54.60 © -54.60 © -54.60 54.60 54.60 NET RESOURCES “$60.50 0 560.50 505.90 505.90 505.90 505.90 505.90 505-90 505.90 505.90 505.90 SURPLUS 70.50 52,50 -11.10 -20.10 -29.10 -36,10 -43.10 -49.10 © -56.10 -62.10 75.10 GREATER ANCHORAGE LOAD (GWh) 1760.00 1809.00 1858.00 1907.00 1972.00 2037.00 2101.00 2166.00 2231.00 2272.00 2313.00 2354.00 2395.00 2436.00 2467.00 2497.00 2528.00 2558.00 2589.00 2648.00 RESOURCES (GWh) 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 RETIREMENTS 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0,00 88.90 -181.50 -181.50 -274.10 -359.90 -359.90 -359.90 474.60 -474.60 -474.60 -474.60 NET RESOURCES 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.80 4134.60 4134.80 4134-80 4045.90 3953.30 3953.30 3860-70 3774-90 3774.90 3774.90 3660.20 3660.20 3660.20 3660.20 SURPLUS 2374.80 2325.80 2276.80 2227.80 2162.80 2097.80 2033.80 1968.80 1903.80 1773.90 1640.30 1599.30 1465.70 1338.90 1307.90 1277.90 1132.20 1102.20 1071.20 1012.20 PAIRBANKS LOAD (GWh) 557.00 591.00 626.00 661.00 744,00 827.00 910.00 993.00 1076.00 1065.00 1055.00 1044.00 1034.00 1023.00 968.00 912.00 857.00 801.00 746.00 728.00 RESOURCES (GWH) 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 1208.00 RETIREMENTS -24.50 -98.10 -98.10 -98.10 98.10 -318.90 -355.70 -1483.90 -1483.90 -1606.60 -1606.60 NET RESOURCES 1183.50 1140.50 1109.90 1109.90 1109.90 1109.90 1109.90 1109.90 1109.90 889.10 852.30 275.90 -275.90 -275.90 -275.90 -398.60 -398.60 SURPLUS 626.50 549,50 483.90 448,90 365.90 282.90 199.90 116,90 33.90 165.90 -154,90 -144,90 -170.70 -692.10 -1187.90 -1132.90 -1076.90 -1144.60 -1126.60 TOTAL RAILBELT LOAD (GWh)-—=«-2704.00 2797.00 2892.00 2967.00 3149.00 3311.00 3473.00 3635.00 3797-00 3836.00 3876.00 3915.00 3955.00 3994.00 3977.00 3958.00 3940.00 3921.00 3903.00 3957.00 RESOURCES (GWh) 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 5903.30 RETIREMENTS 24.50 67.50 -98.10 -98.10 -98.10 -98.10 -98.10 = 98.10 798.10 7297.40 +40 7500.40 -554.90 7647.50 -770.20 -1346.60 -1898.50 -2013.10 ~2013,10 -2135.80 -2135.80 AVAILABLE RES. 5078-80 5835.80 5805.20 5805.20 5805-20 5605.20 5805.20 5805.20 5605.20 5605.90 5402.90 5348.40 5255.80 5133.10 4556.70 4004-80 3690.20 3890-20 3767.50 3767.50 SURPLUS (DEFICIT) 3174.80 3038.80 2913.20 2818.20 2656.20 2494.20 2332.20 2170.20 2008.20 1769.90 1526.90 1433.40 1300.80 1139.10 579.70 46.80 49.80 -30.80 -135.50 -189.50 NOTE: RESOURCES CALCULATED AS EXISTING CAPACITY @ 70% PLANT FACTOR. ARURER: {hy 8:88 8288888 82888888288 82888180088 18:88 28:88 2888785898 58985898 09:88 9B P8928 PAI.RET. (MW) 4.00 11.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 34.00 52.00 52.00 52.00 58.00 152.00 242.00 242.00 242.00 262.00 262.00 TOTAL (MW) 4.00 11.00 16.00 16,00 16,00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16,00 48.50 81.60 90,50 105.60 125.60 219.60 309.60 328.30 328.30 348.30 348.30 TOTAL (GWh) 24.50 67.50 98,10 98.10 98.10 98,10 98,10 98.10 98.10 297.40 500.40 555.00 647.60 770.20 1346.60 1898.40 2013.10 2013.10 2135.80 2135.80 €-2°% J1IGVL R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY PLAN AA REVISED-BRADLEY LAKE AT 135 MW WITH SUSITNA 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1968 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 NEW RESOURCES BERNICE LAKE GT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BRADLEY LAKE 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 TOTAL KENAI 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 BELUGA GT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BELUGA COAL 0.00 0.00 SUSITNA 0.00 695.00 TOTAL ANCHORAGE 695.00 SUSITNA 325.00 TOTAL FAIRBANKS seeeeeee LOAD RESOURCE ANALYSIS ##tetene KENAI PENINSULA PEAK LOAD (MW) 79.00 82.00 84.00 86.00 89.00 92.00 94,00 97.00 106.00 108.00 RESOURCES BERNICE LAKE 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 COOPER LAKE 15,00 15,00 15,00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 LESS: RETIREMENT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.90 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 NET RESOURCES 91.40 91.40 91.40 91.40 226.40 217.50 217.50 SURPLUS (DEF.) 12.40 9.40 2.40 -0.60 129.40 111,50 109.50 GREATER ANCHORAGE PEAK LOAD (MW) 360,00 370,00 380.00 390.00 403.00 417.00 430.00 444.00 457.00 465.00 474.00 482.00 491.00 499.00 505.00 512.00 518.00 525.00 543.00 RESOURCES CEA GT 413,10 413,10 413,10 © 413,10 © 413.10 © 413,10 © 413.10 © 413.10 © 413.10 © 413,10 © 413.10 © 413.10 © 413.10 © 413.10 © 413.10 9 413.10 413.10 © 413.10 413.10 AML&P GT 231.20 231.20 © 231,20 © 231,20 © 231.20 231.20 231.20 © 231.20 © 231.20 231.20 231.20 © 231.20 © 231.20 231.20 = 231.20 = 231.20 231.20 LESS: RETIREMENT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -29.60 -29.60 -44.70 -58.70 -58.70 -58.70 -77.40 -77.40 -77.40 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 NET RESOURCES 644.30 644.30 644,30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 614,70 1309.70 1294.60 1260.60 1260.60 1280.60 1261.90 1261.90 1261.90 1261.90 SURPLUS (DEF.) 284.30 274.30 264.30 © 254.30 241.30 © 227.30 = 214.30 140.70 827.70 803.60 781.60 775.60 768.60 743.90 736.90 730.90 718.90 PAIRBANKS PEAK LOAD (MW) 130.00 154.00 173.00 193.00 212.00 241.00 239.00 226.00 213.00 200.00 187.00 174.00 170.00 RESOURCES GVEA 197.00 197.00 197,00 197,00 197.00 197.00 197,00 197.00 197,00 197,00 197,00 197,00 197,00 PMUS 65.00 65.00 65,00 65,00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65,00 65.00 65.00 65,00 65.00 65.00 LESS: RETIREMENT -4,00 -16.00 -16.00 16.00 -16.00 ~52.00 -58.00 ~-152.00 -242.00 -242.00 -242.00 -262.00 ~-262.00 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 NET RESOURCES 258.00 246.00 210.00 535.00 535.00 529.00 435.00 345,00 345.00 345.00 325.00 325.00 SURPLUS (DEF.) 128.00 92.00 73.00 53.00 34.00 736.00 291.00 294.00 290.00 209.00 132.00 145.00 158.00 151.00 155.00 TOTAL RAILBELT PEAK LOAD (MW) 569.00 630.00 665.00 702.00 736.00 773.00 808.00 816.00 824.00 832.00 840.00 848.00 842.00 837.00 832.00 827.00 821.00 832.00 EXISTING RESOURCES 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 LESS: RETIREMENT 4.00 16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 81.60 -90.50 -105.60 ~-125.60 ~-219.60 -309.60 -328.30 -328.30 -348.30 -348.30 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 1155 0 1155.00 1155.00 1155.00 NET RESOURCES 993.70 981.70 981.70 981.70 1116.70 1116.70 1116.70 1084.20 1051.10 2062.20 2047.10 2027.10 1933.10 1843.10 1824.40 1824.40 1804.40 1804.40 SURPLUS (DEF.) 424.70 396.70 371.70 351.70 316.70 279.70 380.70 343.70 308.70 268.20 227.10 1230.20 1207.10 1179.10 1091.10 1006.10 992.40 997.40 983.40 972.40 LESS: RESERVES -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200:00 -200:00 -200:00 -200:00 -200:00 -200:00 -200:00 -200:00 NET SURPLUS (DEF.) 224.70 196.70 171.70 151.70 116.70 79.70 180.70 108.70 68.20 27.10 1030.20 1007.10 891.10 806.10 792.40 797.40 783.40 TRANSMISSION REQS. (EXCLUDING LOSSES) ANCH. TO KENAI W/KENAL OUTAGE 12.60 15.60 17.60 19.60 22.60 25.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 W/ANC-PAI OUTAGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -17.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ANCH, TO FAIRBANKS W/PAIRBANKS OUT. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12,00 31.00 51.00 70.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 W/ANC-KEN OUTAGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MAXIMUM OUTAGE KENAI 25,00 25,00 25.00 25,00 25.00 25.00 © 45.00 = 45.00 45.00 45,00 45.00 45,00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 FAIRBANKS 65.00 65.00 65.00 65,00 (65.00 (65.00 65.00 65.00 65,00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 ANC-FAI COIN. 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 ANC-KEN COIN. 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200,00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 b-€°%? 3A1GVL R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND 1982 1983 1984 1985 TRANSMISSION STUDY 1986 PLAN AB REVISED-BRADLEY LAKE AT 90 1988 1990 MW WITH SUSITNA 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 NEW RESOURCES - | BERNICE LAKE GT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BRADLEY LAKE 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 0 TOTAL KENAI 0.00 0. 90.00 90.00 0 BELUGA GT 0.00 0. 0.00 0.00 BELUGA COAL 0. 0.00 0.00 SUSITNA 0 695.00 695.00 695.00 TOTAL ANCHORAGE 0.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 SUSITNA 0.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 TOTAL FAIRBANKS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 325.00 325.00 seteeees LOAD RESOURCE ANALYSIS *#ketene KENAI PENINSULA PEAK LOAD (MW) 79.00 82.00 84.00 86.00 89.00 92.00 94.00 100.00 106.00 112.00 RESOURCES BERNICE LAKE 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 COOPER LAKE 15.00 15,00 15,00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 LESS: RETIREMENT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 =8.90 -8.90 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 NET RESOURCES 91.40 91.40 181.40 181.40 172.50 172.50 SURPLUS (DEF.) 12.40 5.40 87.40 81.40 66.50 60.50 Fcc PEAK LOAD (MW) 360,00 370,00 380.00 390.00 403.00 417.00 430.00 444.00 457.00 465.00 474.00 482.00 491.00 499.00 512.00 RESOURCES CEA GT 413.10 413,10 413,10 413,10 © 413,10 © 413,10 © 413.10 © 413,10 413.10 413.10 413,10 413.10 413.10 413.10 413.10 AMLEP GT 231,20 231.20 231.20 231,20 231.20 231.20 231.20 © 231.20 231.20 231.20 231.20 © 231.20 231.20 © 231.20 231.20 LESS: RETIREMENT 0.00 0.00 0,00 0.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0,00 14,50 -29.60 -29.60 -44.70 -58.70 58.70 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.00 45.00 0.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 695.00 NET RESOURCES 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 689.30 674.80 614.70 1309.70 1294.60 1280.60 1280.60 1280.60 1261.90 1261.90 1261.90 1261.90 SURPLUS (DEF.) 284.30 274.30 264.30 254.30 © 241.30 227.30 214.30 200.30 232.30 209.80 140.70 827.70 803.60 781.60 775.60 768.60 743.90 736.90 730.90 718.90 FAIRBANKS PEAK LOAD (MW) 130.00 138.00 146.00 154.00 173.00 193.00 212.00 232.00 251.00 249.00 246.00 244.00 241.00 239.00 226.00 213.00 200.00 187.00 174.00 170.00 RESOURCES GVEA 197.00 197,00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197,00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197,00 197.00 197.00 197.00 MUS 65.00 65.00 65,00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 LESS: RETIREMENT -4.00 -11.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 “16.00 -34.00 52.00 -52.00 -52.00 -58.00 -242.00 -242.00 -242.00 -262.00 -262.00 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 NET RESOURCES 258,00 251.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 246.00 228.00 210.00 535.00 535.00 529.00 345.00 345.00 345.00 325.00 325.00 SURPLUS (DEF.) 128.00 113.00 100,00 92.00 73,00 53.00 34,00 14,00 = -5.00 -21.00 -36.00 291.00 294.00 290.00 209.00 132.00 145.00 158.00 151.00 155.00 TOTAL RAILBELT PEAK LOAD (MW) 569.00 590.00 610.00 630.00 665.00 702.00 816.00 832.00 840,00 848.00 842.00 837.00 832.00 827.00 821.00 832.00 EXISTING RESOURCES 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 LESS: RETIREMENT -4.00 -11.00 -16.00 16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -48.50 ~90.50 -105.60 -125.60 -219.60 -309.60 ~328.30 -348.30 -348.30 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 00 00 135.00 1110.00 1110.00 1110.00 1110.00 1110.00 1110.00 1110.00 1110.00 NET RESOURCES 993.70 986.70 981.70 981.70 981.70 981.70 1071.70 1071.70 1116.70 1084.20 1006.10 2017.20 2002.10 1982.10 1888.10 1798.10 1779.40 1779.40 SURPLUS (DEF.) 424.70 396.70 371.70 351.70 316.70 279.70 335.70 298.70 308.70 268.20 182.10 1185.20 1162.10 1134.10 1046.10 961.10 947.40 952.40 LESS: RESERVES -200.00 ~-200.00 ~-200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200:00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 200.00 NET SURPLUS (DEF.) 224.70 196.70 171,70 151.70 116.70 79.70 98.70 108.70 68.20 -17.90 985.20 962.10 934.10 846.10 761.10 752.40 TRANSMISSION REQS. (EXCLUDING LOSSES) ANCH. TO KENAI W/KENAI OUTAGE 12.60 15.60 17.60 19.60 22.60 25.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 W/ANC-PAI OUTAGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -11.20 -77.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ANCH. TO PAIRBANKS W/PAIRBANKS OUT. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0,00 12.00 31.00 = 51.00 © 70.00» 86.00 101.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 W/ANC-KEN OUTAGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MAXIMUM OUTAGE KENAI 25.00 25,00 25,00 25.00 = 25.00 25.00 45.00 45.00 45,00 45.00 © 45.00 45,00 45.00 45.00 45.00 © 45.00 © 45.00 © 45.00 45.00 FAIRBANKS 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65:00 65.00 65.00 65.00 ANC-PAI COIN. 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 +—200.00 + 200.00 + 200.00 200.00 200.00 +©—200.00 +—200.00 +—200.00 + 200.00 ANC-KEN COIN. 200,00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 + 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 e-€°% AIGVL R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY NEW RESOURCES BERNICE LAKE GT BRADLEY LAKE TOTAL KENAI BELUGA GT BELUGA COAL SUSITNA TOTAL ANCHORAGE SUSITNA TOTAL FAIRBANKS KENAI PENINSULA SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA 1982 1983 1964 0.00 seeeeeee LOAD 79.00 1985 RESOURCE 1986 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20.00 00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ALY SIS thteeeee REVISED-COMBUSTION TURBINES WITH 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 20.00 0.00 1996 1997 20.00 1998 SUSITNA 1999 2000 20.00 0.00 PEAK LOAD (MW) 62.00 84.00 86.00 89.00 92.00 94.00 97,00 100.00 102.00 104.00 106.00 110,00 111,00 112.00 114.00 RESOURCES BERNICE LAKE 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 76.40 COOPER LAKE 15.00 15.00 15,00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15,00 15,00 15,00 15.00 +=: 15.00 15.00 15,00 LESS: RETIREMENT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.90 ~8.90 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 NET RESOURCES 91.40 91.40 91.40 111.40 102.50 102.50 SURPLUS (DEF.) 12.40 9.40 7.40 5.40 2.40 19.40 14,40 11.40 9.40 7.40 -3.50 -7.50 | -8.50 “9.50 -11.50 PEAK LOAD (MW) 360.00 370.00 380.00 390.00 403.00 417.00 430.00 444,00 457,00 465.00. 474.00 482.00 491.00 499.00 505.00 512.00 518.00 531.00 543.00 RESOURCES CEA GT 413.10 413,10 © 413,10 © 413,10 413.10 © 413.10 = 413.10 = 413.10 413.10 © 413,10 413.10 413.10 © 413.10 © 413.10 413.10 413.10 AML&P GT 231,20 © 231.20 231.20 231.20 231.20 231.20 © 231.20 © 231.20 231.20 = 231.20 231.20 © 231.20 LESS: RETIREMENT 0.00 0.00 7-29.60 -44.70 -58.70 -58.70 -58.70 -77.40 -17.40 -77.40 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 745.00 745.00 745,00 745,00 745.00 745.00 745.00 745.00 NET RESOURCES 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 644.30 1359.70 1344.60 1330.60 1330.60 1330.60 1311.90 1311.90 1311.90 SURPLUS (DEF.) 284.30 274,30 264.30 254.30 241.30 © 227.30 214.30 += 200.30 877.70 853.60 631.60 825.60 818.60 793.90 780.90 768.90 FAIRBANKS PEAK LOAD (MW) 130.00 138.00 146.00 241.00 239.00 226.00 213.00 174.00 170.00 RESOURCES GVEA 197.00 197.00 197,00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197.00 197,00 197.00 FMUS 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 LESS: RETIREMENT -4,00 -11.00 16.00 752.00 -58.00 -152.00 -242.00 -262.00 -262.00 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 NET RESOURCES 258.00 251.00 246.00 535.00 529.00 435.00 345.00 325.00 325.00 SURPLUS (DEF.) 128.00 113.00 100,00 294.00 290.00 209.00 132.00 151.00 155.00 TOTAL RAILBELT PEAK LOAD (MW) 569.00 590.00 610.00 630.00 665.00 702.00 736.00 773.00 808.00 816.00 824.00 832.00 840.00 848.00 842.00 837.00 832.00 827.00 821.00 832.00 EXISTING RESOURCES 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 997.70 LESS: RETIREMENT 00 -11.00 16,00 ~-16.00 ~-16.00 ~-16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -16.00 -48.50 -81.60 -90.50 7125.60 -219.60 -309.60 -328.30 -328.30 -348.30 -348.30 NEW RESOURCES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 70,00 70.00 70.00 1090.00 1090.00 1090.00 1090.00 1090.00 1090.00 NET RESOURCES "993.70 986.70 981.70 981.70 981.70 1001.70 1001.70 1001.70 1051-70 1019.20 986.10 1997.20 1962.10 1962-10 1868-10 1778.10 1759.40 1759.40 1739.40 1739.40 SURPLUS (DEF.) 424,70 396.70 371.70 351.70 316.70 299.70 265.70 228.70 243.70 = 203.20 162.10 1165.20 1142.10 1114.10 1026.10 941.10 927.40 932.40 918.40 907.40 LESS: RESERVES -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 ~-200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 -200.00 ~-200.00 ~-200:00 -200:00 -200:00 -200:00 -200.00 NET SURPLUS (DEF.) 224.70 196.70 171.70 151.70 116.70 28.70 43.70 3.20 -37,90 965.20 942.10 914.10 826.10 732.40 707.40 TRANSMISSION REQS. (EXCLUDING LOSSES) ANCH. TO KENAI W/KENAI OUTAGE 12.60 15.60 17.60 19.60 22.60 5.60 7.60 10.60 13.60 15.60 17.60 28.50 30.50 32.50 33.50 34.50 36.50 37.50 W/ANC-FAI OUTAGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.20 -7.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ANCH. TO FAIRBANKS W/PFAIRBANKS OUT, 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12,00 31.00 51.00 70.00 86.00 101.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 W/ANC-KEN OUTAGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MAXIMUM OUTAGE KENAI 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 925.00 25.00 += 25.00. 25.00 25.00 25.00 25,00 25.00 = 25.00 25.00 25.00 FAIRBANKS 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65,00 65,00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 ANC-PAI COIN. 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200:00 200.00 200.00 ANC-KEN COIN. 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00 €-€°% AIGVL R. W. Beck and Assoclat POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY NEW RESOURCES BERNICE LAKE GT BRADLEY LAKE TOTAL KENAI BELUGA GT BELUGA COAL SUSITNA TOTAL ANCHORAGE SUSITNA TOTAL FAIRBANKS KENAI PENINSULA PEAK LOAD (MW) RESOURCES BERNICE LAKE COOPER LAKE LESS: RETIREMENT NEW RESOURCES NET RESOURCES SURPLUS (DEF.) GREATER ANCHORAGE PEAK LOAD (MW) RESOURCES CEA GT AML&P GT LESS: RETIREMENT NEW RESOURCES NET RESOURCES SURPLUS (DEF.) FAIRBANK: PEAK LOAD (MW) RESOURCES GVEA FMUS LESS: RETIREMENT NEW RESOURCES NET RESOURCES SURPLUS (DEF.) TOTAL RAILBELT PEAK LOAD (MW) EXISTING RESOURCES LESS: RETIREMENT NEW RESOURCES NET RESOURCES SURPLUS (DEF.) LESS: RESERVES NET SURPLUS (DEF.) TRANSMISSION REQS. ANCH. TO KENAI W/KENAI OUTAGE W/ANC-FAI OUTAGE ANCH. TO FAIRBANKS W/PAIRBANKS OUT. W/ANC-KEN OUTAGE MAXIMUM OUTAGE KENAI FAIRBANKS ANC-PAI COIN. ANC-KEN COIN. SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA 1982 79.00 76.40 15.00 0.00 0.00 91.40 12.40 360.00 413.10 231.20 0.00 0.00 644,30 284.30 130.00 197.00 65.00 -4.00 569.00 997.70 -4.00 0.00 993.70 424.70 -200.00 224.70 1983 seeeeeee LD OAD 82.00 76.40 15,00 0.00 370.00 413.10 231.20 644.30 274.30 138.00 197.00 65.00 590.00 997.70 -11.00 0.00 986.70 396.70 -200.00 196.70 (EXCLUDING LOSSES 12.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 15.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 0.00 0.00 84.00 76.40 15,00 0.00 0.00 91.40 7.40 380.00 413.10 231.20 0.00 644.30 264.30 146.00 197.00 65.00 -16.00 246.00 100.00 610.00 997.70 -16.00 0.00 1985 0.00 0.00 RESOURCE 86.00 76.40 15.00 0.00 254.30 154.00 197.00 65.00 -16.00 0.00 246.00 92.00 630.00 997.70 16.00 0.00 981.70 981.70 351.70 200.00 371.70 -200.00 171.70 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 19.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1986 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 89.00 76.40 15.00 0.00 73.00 665.00 997.70 -16.00 0.00 981.70 316.70 -200.00 116.70 22.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200,00 1987 20.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 92.00 76.40 15.00 0.00 20.00 111.40 19.40 417.00 413.10 231.20 0.00 0.00 246.00 53.00 702,00 997.70 -16.00 20.00 1001.70 299.70 -200.00 99.70 5.60 0.00 12.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 PLAN E-~COMBINED CYCLE COMBUSTION TURBINES 1988 20.00 0.00 ANALY SI 5 ##estee® 94.00 76.40 15.00 0.00 20.00 430.00 413.10 231.20 0.00 0.00 736.00 997.70 16.00 20.00 1001.70 265.70 -200.00 7.60 0.00 31.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1989 20.00 0.00 97.00 76.40 15,00 0.00 10.60 0.00 51.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1990 20.00 0.00 100,00 76.40 15.00 0.00 20.00 111.40 11.40 457.0C 413.10 231.20 0.00 50,00 694.30 237.30 1051.70 243.70 -200.00 43.70 13.60 0.00 70.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1991 1992 102,00 104,00 76.40 76.40 15.00 15,00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 111.40 111,40 9.40 7.40 465.00 474,00 413.10 413.10 231,20 231.20 “14.50 -29.60 50.00 250.00 679.80 864.70 214.80 390.70 1019.20 1186.10 203.20 362,10 -200.00 -200.00 162.10 1993 20.00 0.00 20.00 250.00 0.00 0.00 102,50 -3.50 482.00 413.10 231.20 -29.60 250.00 864.70 382.70 244.00 197.00 65.00 ~52.00 0.00 210.00 -34.00 832.00 997.70 -90.50 270.00 1177.20 345.20 -200.00 1994 241.00 197.00 65.00 ~52.00 0.00 210.00 -31.00 0.00 997.70 -105.60 270.00 1162.10 322.10 -200.00 122.10 1995 20.00 0.00 239.00 197,00 65.00 -58.00 0.00 204.00 -35.00 848.00 997.70 -125.60 270.00 1142.10 294.10 -200.00 94.10 32.50 0.00 100.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1996 505,00 413.10 231.20 -58.70 450.00 1035.60 530.60 226.00 197.00 65.00 -152.00 0.00 110,00 -116.00 842.00 997.70 -219.60 470.00 1248.10 406.10 -200.00 206.10 33.50 0.00 161.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1997 1035.60 523.60 213.00 197.00 65.00 -242.00 0.00 20.00 -193,00 837.00 997.70 -309.60 470.00 1158.10 321.10 -200.00 121.10 34.50 0.00 258.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1998 518.00 413.10 231.20 -77.40 450.00 1016.90 498.90 832.00 997.70 -328,30 470.00 1139.40 307.40 -200.00 36.50 0.00 245.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 1999 450.00 0.00 115.00 76.40 15.00 -8.90 20.00 102.50 12.50 525.00 413.10 231.20 -77.40 450.00 1016.90 491.90 827.00 997.70 -328.30 470.00 1139.40 312.40 -200.00 112.40 37.50 0.00 232.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 531.00 413.10 231.20 -77.40 450.00 1016.90 485.90 38.50 0.00 239.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 2001 20.00 0.00 20.00 450.00 0.00 0.00 450.00 119.00 76.40 15.00 -8.90 20.00 102.50 -16.50 543.00 413.10 231.20 -77.40 450.00 1016.90 473.90 832.00 997.70 -348.30 470.00 1119.40 287.40 -200.00 41.50 0.00 235.00 0.00 25.00 65.00 200.00 200.00 y-C¢ 3198Vi SECTION 3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS An economic analysis was performed to evaluate the overall costs for the entire Railbelt for each alternative plan defined in Section 2.3. The economic analysis uses the Authority's standard methodology in effect at the time the June 1982 Study was prepared. This methodology assumed an annual inflation rate of zero percent and an annual real discount rate and interest during construction rate of 3 percent. Estimated capital and operating costs for the generation and transmission facilities associated with each alternative plan have been totaled for each year of the 50-year evaluation period. These costs were then discounted to January 1982 and summed to provide the cumulative present worth of each alternative plan's costs. All costs represented in the analysis are in January 1982 dollars except for fuel costs which are assumed to escalate over and above inflation through the analysis period. Two separate analyses were made for each of the alternative plans. One included peak period oil generation as described under the following assump-— tions and the other did not. For the case not including peak period oil genera- tion it is assumed that sufficient natural gas is available to supply all neces- sary generation requirements over and above amounts supplied by hydroelectric and coal resources. 3.1 Assumptions Nearly all assumptions used to prepare the supplemental economic analy- ses are the same as those used for the June 1982 Study. The only major differ- ences between the two sets of assumptions concerns the inclusion of peak period oil generation as described in the preceding paragraph and the assumptions re- garding combined cycle combustion turbines. Combined cycle combustion turbines were not used in the June 1982 Study. analyses Following is a list of the assumptions used in preparing the economic for the alternative plans: Annual costs are discounted to January 1982 using an inflation-free discount rate of 3%. All costs are in uninflated and unescalated January 1982 dollars ex- cept for fuel costs which are escalated at the following annual rates (Battelle studies): Natural Gas - 14.3% through 1996, 2% thereafter oil - 2% Coal - 2% Total projected annual energy load requirements are those shown in Table 2.1-1. All cost projections made after the initial 20-year period (1982-2001) are based on no additional load growth or escala- tion beyond 2001. Existing generation capacity including retirements is as shown in Section 2.2. Capital and operating costs and capacity and energy of the various generation plant types are as shown in Table 3.1-1. Interest During Construction (IDC) is included based on a 3% interest rate and con- struction periods of six and eight years for Bradley Lake and Susitna, respectively. Annual capital costs of the various generation plants and transmission additions are based on level debt service on the total capital cost including IDC, at a 3% interest rate over amortization periods of 50 years for hydroelectric plants and 30 years for gas-fired combustion turbines, steam turbines, and transmission facilities. 3-3 No capital costs on existing generation or transmission facilities are included. Forty-five MW of existing coal-fired steam turbines in the Fairbanks area are assumed to operate through their projected retirement except in the alternatives including the Susitna Project. In these cases, the existing coal plants are assumed to be retired in 1993 when the Susitna Project comes on-line. Existing coal plants are assumed to provide energy based on a 70% plant factor. Existing oil-fired combustion turbines in the Fairbanks area are as-— sumed to supply the Fairbanks energy requirements over and above local coal-produced energy and estimated energy imports from the Anchorage area through 1992 at which time the availability of Susitna energy or new Beluga gas-fired combustion turbine energy and additional transmis- sion interties will eliminate the need to use these oil-fired combus- tion turbines. In Plan E, combined cycle combustion turbines, when installed, operate at a 75% annual plant factor. Waste heat is used to provide approxi- mately one-third of the total generation of the entire plant. For all cases, natural gas-fired combustion turbines supply the energy requirements additional to those supplied by hydroelectric, combined cycle combustion turbines, and coal facilities and the Fairbanks area combustion turbines. During certain peak periods, available natural gas in the Cook Inlet area is insufficient to supply all generation resource requirements. At these times, oil is used to fuel some combustion turbines to supply the additional power. The estimate of the amount of oil required each 3-4 year for this purpose has been developed by Anchorage Municipal Light & Power through the Authority and ranges from 1.6 million gallons in 1983 to 8.6 million gallons in 1991 assuming nearly 100% combustion turbine generation. The amounts of oil to be used in the Bradley Lake Project alternatives have been reduced with Bradley Lake on-line due to peak load energy available from the Bradley Lake Project. Addition- ally, with the installation of the Susitna Project the use of oil for generation in the Anchorage area is assumed to be eliminated. Spinning reserve requirements for the entire Railbelt area are assumed to be 100 MW in all cases. The costs of spinning reserves are based on the fuel and variable operating and maintenance costs of running gas-fired combustion turbines at speed-no-load. Fuel consumption under these conditions is assumed to be approximately one-third the consumption under loaded conditions. The Bradley Lake Project is assumed to provide 65 MW or 20 MW of spinning reserve for the 135 MW and 90 MW plant sizes, respectively. The Susitna Project is assumed to provide all Railbelt area spinning reserves when it is installed. Fuel costs in January 1982 dollars are as follows: Fuel Type $/MM Btu Natural Gas 0.69 Nenana Coal 1.43 oil 6.93 Costs for new transmission facilities required under each alternative are as shown in Section 2.4 of the June 1982 Study. Operation and maintenance costs for new transmission facilities are assumed to be 1.9 percent of total capital cost. 3.2 Results Based on the foregoing methodology and assumptions, the cumulative present-worth of each alternative has been calculated. These results are sum- marized in Table 3.2-1. The individual economic analyses are shown in Tables 3.2-2 through 3.2-9. Alternative Plan D-Revised, combustion turbines with Susitna, has the lowest evaluated cost. It is followed by the Bradley Lake alternatives. These results indicate a slight advantage in using combustion turbines prior to opera- tion of the Susitna Project rather than the Bradley Lake Project. The costs associated with Plan E, combined cycle combustion turbines, are higher than those for the Susitna and Bradley Lake alternatives. The results of the comparison between peak period oil generation and peak period natural gas generation indicates a significant cost due to the use of oil. Those alternatives using more combustion turbine generation in rela- tion to the total generation supplied will incur greater costs overall due to peak period oil usage. It is important to note that the costs of Plan D-Re- vised with peak period oil usage are very close to the costs of Plan AB-Revised (Bradley Lake at 90 MW with Susitna) without peak period oil usage. The in- creased demand on natural gas supplies as would be necessary under Plan D-Re- vised could make this comparison viable. As far as the size of the Bradley Lake Project is concerned, the re- sults favor the 90 MW Plant over the 135 MW plant assuming Susitna is in opera- tion as projected. Delays in the Susitna Project would tend to alter this relationship and would increase the costs of Plan D-Revised. Additionally, including losses in the load forecast would lower the costs of the hydro alter- natives relative to the combustion turbine alternatives. R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY NEW GENERATION PLANT DATA Annual Capital Fixed Variable Capacity Heat Rate Energy Cost(1) O&M O&M Fuel Resource (Mw) (Btu/kWh) (GWh) ($/kw) (S/kW/Yr) (Mills/kWh) ($/MM Btu) BRADLEY LAKE 2-unit 90 -- 346 (2) 3,629 (3) 9 (4) _ -- 3-unit 135 -_ 356 (2) 2,732 (3) 9 (4) -— _— SUSITNA Watana I & II 1,020 (4) — 3,459 (4) 2,952 (5) 5 (4) _ -_ COMBUSTION TURBINE Gas-fired 20-75 12,000 (3) 429 266 (3) 2.7 (3) 4.8 (3) 0.69 (6) O0il-fired 20-75 12,000 (3) 429 266 (3) 2.7 (3) 4.8 (3) 6.93 (4) COMBINED CYCLE COMBUSTION TURBINE Conversion of simple cycle to waste heat recovery 20-50 - 131-329 559 2.7 4.8 - Gas-fired CCCT 200 12,000 1,314 444 2.7 4.8 0.69 (6) NOTES: (1) Excluding IDC. (2) Alaska Power Administration's Bradley Lake Project Report.2 (3) Alaska Power Authority. (4) Battelle's Railbelt Study!, Tables 2.1 and 4.2. (5) ACRE's Susitna Project Feasibility Report.4 (6) Battelle's additional studies. I-T°€ ATAVL R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. SUPPLEMENT KENAI PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY Summary of Economic Analyses TABLE 3,2-1 Cumulative Present-Worth of Alternatives' Costs Alternative AA-Revised AB-Revised D-Revised Bradley Lake at 135 MW with Susitna 1 - With Peak Period Oil Generation 2 - Without Peak Period Oil Generation Bradley Lake at 90 MW with Susitna 1 - With Peak Period Oil Generation 2 - Without Peak Period Oil Generation Combustion Turbine with Susitna 1 - With Peak Period Oil Generation 2 - Without Peak Period Oil Generation Combustion Turbines as Only New Resource 1 - With Peak Period Oil Generation 2 - Without Peak Period Oil Generation Cumulative Present Worth (S$ x 106) 4,453 4,427 4,424 4,397 4,392 4,360 4,698 4,428 R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. sureceuent RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN AA REVISED KENIA PENINSULA BRADLEY LAKE AT 135 MW WITH SUSITNA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY WITH PEAK PERIQD OIL GENEATION HYDROELECTRIC COMBUSTION TURBINES ‘TRANSMISSION TOTAL eeemenn on ~ a cones nen -- SPINNING ENERGY TOTAL EXIST. NEW cap. oem TOTAL EXIST, NEW cA. 0am PUEL TOTAL OIL CT NAT.GAS CAP. aM FUEL cap. O&M RESERVE TOTAL ~—PW TO REQS. CAPAC. — GEN. GEN. cost COST CAPAC. GEN. cost cost cost CAP. GEN, cost cosT cost cost cost cost cosT = JAN 82 YEAR (GWh) (mv) (GWh) (GWh) ($000) — ($000) co) (Gwh) ($000) ($000) ($000) (Mw) (GWh) ($000) ($000) ($000) ~— ($000) ~~ ($000) ~— ($000) +~— ($000) ~~ ($000) 1.143 69 1982 2704 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 3947 929 295 1879 0 12944 = 40090 0 0 381961718 = 61718 1.143 0.79 1983 2797 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4026 922 334 1933 0 13371-46625 0 0 4165 69104 = 67092 1.143 0.90 1984 2892 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4106 922 168 2194 0 = 1382738269 3817 1264 4560 66761-62928 1.143 1.03 1985 2987 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4188 922 165 2292 0 §=14283 = 42900 3817 1264 5012 72382 © 66240 1.143 1.18 1986 3149 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4272 922 243 2376 0 15061 55452 3817 1264 5528 = 86312-76687 1.143 1.35 1987 3311 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4358 922 325 2456 0 =15838 = 69513 3817 1264 6118 101825 87835 1.143 1.54 1988 3473 180 254 356 15800 1215 45 276 0 0 918 4445 922 377 2210 0 1490776110 7974 2640 2378 126386 105846 1.143 1.76 1989 3635 180 254 356 15800 1215 45 276 0 0 918 4534 922 463 2286 0 15685 = 92470 7974 2640 2647 143883 116990 1.143 2.01 1990 3797 180 254 356 © -15800 1215 45 276 0 0 918 4624 908 536 2375 0 = 16424 = 109513 7974 2640 2956 162064 127935 1.143 2.30 1991 3836 180 254 356 15800 1215 45 276 0 0 918 4717 908 504 2446 0 = 16612117527 7974 2640 3308 =170710 = 130835 1.143 2.63 1992 3876 180 254 356 15800 1215 45 276 0 0 918 4811 856 490 2500 0 = 16663128455 7974 2640 3711 182187 135564 1.143 3.00 1993 3915 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 847 0 0 0 2287 0 634698 = 11486 0 201696 145709 1.143 3.43 1994 3955 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 832 0 0 0 2246 0 = 34698 = 11486 0 201655 141437 1.143 3.92 1995 3994 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 812 0 0 0 2192 0 = 34698 = 11486 0 = ©201601 137281 1.143 4.48 1996 3977 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 718 0 0 0 1939 0 34698 = 11486 0 201348 = 133114 1.02 4.57 1997 3958 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 653 0 0 0 1763 0 34698 =—:11486 0 201172 129125 1.02 4.66 1998 3940 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 619 0 0 0 1671 0 34698 += 11486 0 201080 125307 1.02 4.76 1999 3921 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 604 0 0 0 1631 0 34696 = 11486 0 201040 = 121632 1.02 4.85 2000 3903 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 604 0 0 0 1631 0 «634698 ~=— 11486 0 201040 118090 1.02 4.95 2001 3957 1200 254 3815 146910 6315 0 0 0 0 0 0 604 0 0 0 1631 0 34696 «=: 11486 0 201040 114650 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH 2206016 30 YEARS (2002-2031) CUM. PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH 2247194 TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE. 4453210 BRAD. LAKE CAP, COST ($/KW) SUSITNA CAPITAL COST ($/KW) NENANA COAL ($/MMBtu) BELUGA COAL ($/MMBtu) COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) COAL ESCALATION COAL CAPITAL COST ($/KW) COAL FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) COAL VAR. O&M (mills/KWh) NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) OIL COST ($/MMBtu) COMB, TURBINE HEAT RATE NAT. GAS ESC. THRU 1996 NAT. GAS ESC. APTER 1996 OIL’ ESCALATION COM.TUR. CAPITAL COST($/KW) COM.TUR, FIXED O&M($/KW-YR) COM.TUR. VAR. O&M ($/MWh) DISCOUNT FACTOR SPINNING RESERVES (MW) SPINNING RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) e-2°€ AIGVL 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 2.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.02 1.02 1,02 1.02 1,02 +69 0.79 0.90 1.03 1.18 1.35 1.54 1.76 2.01 2.30 2.63 3.00 3.43 3.92 4.48 4.57 4.66 4.76 4.85 4.95 R. W. Beck and A SUPPLEMENT YEAR 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 KENIA PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY TOTAL ~~~ ENERGY TOTAL EXIST, REQS. CAPAC. — GEN, (GWh) (MW) 2704 45 254 2797 45 254 2892 45 254 2987 45 254 3149 45 254 3311 45 254 3473 180 254 3635 180 254 3797 180 254 3836 180 254 3876 180 254 3915 1200 254 3955 1200 254 3994 1200 254 3977 1200 254 3958 1200 254 3940 1200 254 3921 1200 254 3903 1200 254 3957 1200 254 BRAD, LAKE CAP, COST ($/KW) SUSITNA CAPITAL COST ($/KW) NENANA COAL ($/MMBtu) BELUGA COAL ($/MMBtu) COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) COAL ESCALATION COAL CAPITAL COST ($/KW) COAL FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) COAL VAR. O&M (mills/KWh) NATURAL GAS (S/MMBtu) OIL COST ($/MMBtu) COMB, TURBINE HEAT RATE NAT. GAS ESC. THRU 1996 NAT. GAS ESC. AFTER 1996 OIL ESCALATION COM.TUR. CAPITAL COST($/KW) COM:TUR: FIXED O&M($/KW-YR) COM.TUR. VAR. O&M ($/MWh) DISCOUNT FACTOR SPINNING RESERVES (MW) SPINNING RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) sociates,inc. HYDROELECTRIC NEW GEN. (GWh) coccoe 356 356 356 356 3815 3815 3815 3815 3815 3815 3815 3815 3815 3012 3307 1.43 1.69 10000 1.02 2051 16.71 0.60 0.69 6.93 12000 1.143 1.02 1302 266 2.70 4.8 1.03 100 200 cap. cost ($000) 15800 15800 15800 15800 15800 146910 146910 146910 146910 146910 146910 146910 146910 146910 aM cost $000 1215 1215 1215 1215 1215 6315 6315 6315 6315 6315 6315 6315 6315 6315 TOTAL CAPAC. (Mi) 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 0 EXIST. RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN AA REVISED BRADLEY LAKE AT 135 MW WITH SUSITNA WITHOUT PEAK PERIOD OIL GENERATION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COAL eccococc] FUEL cost ($000) 3947 4026 4106 4188 4272 4358 4445 4534 4624 4717 4ell 0 ‘TOTAL CAP. (Mw) 929 922 922 922 922 922 922 922 908 908 856 847 832 812 718 653 619 604 604 604 OIL cr COMBUSTION TURBINES NAT.GAS. GEN. (GWh) 1893 1952 2218 2320 2413 2502 2244 2329 2427 2507 2570 ecoccccce 4M cost ($000) 12944 13371 13827 14283 15061 15838 14907 15685 16424 16612 16663 2287 2246 2192 1939 1763 1671 1631 1631 1631 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH 30 YEARS (2002-2031) CUM. FUEL cost ($000) 39042 45193 36452 40775 52645 66032 73554 89270 105701 113147 123565, ‘TRANSMISSION ~ SPINNING cap. O&M RESERVE cost cost ($000) — ($000) 0 0 3819 0 0 4165 3817 1264 4560 3817 1264 5012 3817 1264 5528 3817 1264 6118 7974 2640 2378 7974 2640 2647 7974 2640 2956 7974 2640 3308 7974 2640 3711 & eccococce TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE. TOTAL cosT ($000) 60669 67672 64944 70257 83504 98345 123830 140662 158252 166330 177297 201696 201655, 201601 201348 201172 201080 201040 201040 201040 PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH Pw TO JAN 82 ($000) 60669 65701 61216 64295 74192 84833 103706 114388 124926 127478 131926 145709 141437 137281 133114 129125, 125307 121632 118090 114650 2179675 2247194 4426869 €-2°©€ AIWVL 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.69 0.79 0.90 1.03 1.18 1.35 1.54 1.76 2.01 2.30 2.63 3.00 3.43 3.92 4.48 4.57 4.66 4.76 4.85 4.95 R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. YEAR 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY TOTAL ENERGY REQS. (GWh) 2704 2797 2892 2987 3149 3311 3473 3635 3797 3836 3876 3915 3955 3994 3977 3958 3940 3921 3903 3957 BRAD. LAK! SUSITNA C TOTAL EXIST. CAPAC, GEN. (mw) (GWh) 45 254 45 254 45 254 45 254 45 254 45 254 135 254 135 254 135 254 135 254 135 254 1155 254 1155 254 1155 254 1155 254 1155 254 1155 254 2155 254 1155 254 1155 254 E CAP, COST ($/KW) "APITAL COST ($/KW) NENANA COAL ($/MMBtu) BELUGA COAL ($/MMBtu) COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) COAL ESCALATION COAL CAPI ‘TAL COST ($/KW) COAL FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) COAL VAR. O&M (mills/KWh) NATURAL GAS (S/MMBtu) OIL cost ($/MMBtu) COMB. TURBINE HEAT RATE NAT. GAS NAT. GAS ESC. THRU 1996 ESC. AFTER 1996 OIL ESCALATION COM. TUR. COM.TUR. COM. TUR. DISCOUNT SPINNING SPINNING CAPITAL COST($/KW) FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) VAR. O&M ($/MWh) FACTOR RESERVES (MW) RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) HYDROELECTRIC NEW cap. GEN. cost (GWh) ($000) 0 0 0 0 0 0 14008 14008 14008 14008 14008 145118 145118 145118 2145118 145118 145118 3805 145118 3805 145118 3805 145118 4004 3307 1.43 1.69 10000 1.02 2051 16.71 0.60 0.69 6.93 12000 1.143 1.02 1,02 266 2.70 4.8 1.03 100 200 ‘TOTAL CAPAC, (MW) EXIST, GEN, (GWh) 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 ecccccoce RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN AB REVISED BRADLEY LAKE AT 90 MW WITH SUSITNA NEW GEN. (GWh eccccceccoce ccocccce WITH PEAK PERIOD OIL GENERATION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 eccccocc] FUEL cost ($000) 3947 4026 4106 4188 4272 4358 4445 4534 4624 4717 4811 eccccccc] TOTAL cap, (MW) 929 922 922 922 922 922 922 922 908 908 856 847 832 812 718 653 619 604 604 604 OIL ct COMBUSTION TURBINES NAT. GAS GEN. (Gwh) 1879 1933 2194 2292 2376 2456 2220 2296 2385 2456 2510 ecoccecce CAP. OaM cost cost ($000) ($000) 12944 13371 13827 14283 15061 15838 14955 15733 16472 16660 16711 2287 2246 2192 1939 1763 1671 1631 1631 1631 ecccocccccocccccccce FUEL cost ($000) 40090 46625 38269 42900 55452 69513 76295 92682 109754 117803 128770 0 ecoccoc]e ‘TRANSMISSION soreeenne SPINNING CAP. O&M RESERVE cost Cost cost ($000) ($000) ($000) 0 0 3819 0 0 4165 3817 1264 4560 3817 1264 5012 3817 1264 5528 3817 1264 6118 7974 2640 5434 7974 2640 6051 7974 2640 6756 7974 2640 7562 7974 2640 8483 & 2 & eccccccce CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH 30 YEARS (2002-2031) cum. TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE TOTAL cost ($000) 61718 69104 66761 72382 86312 101825 127479 145348 163957 173091 185125 199499 199458 199404 199151 198975 198883 198843 198843 198843, PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH Pw TO JAN 82 ($000) 61718 67092 62928 66240 76687 87835 106761 118182 129429, 132660 137750 144122 139896 135785 131662 127715 123937 120303 116799 113397 2200898 2222637 4423535 v-2e€ AIGVL POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY 1.143 1.143 2.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.02 1.02 0.69 0.79 0.90 1.03 1.18 1.54 1.76 2.01 2.30 2.63 3.00 3.43 3.92 4.48 4.57 4.66 4.76 4.85 4.95 R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. YEAR 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA TOTAL ENERGY REQS. (GWh) 2704 2797 2892 2987 3149 3311 3473 3635 3797 3836 3876 3915 3955 3994 3977 3958 3940 3921 3903 3957 BRAD, LAKI TOTAL EI CAPAC, (mw) 45 45 45 45 45 45 135 135 135 135 135 1155 1155 1155 1155 1155 1155 1155 1155 1155 E CAP, COST ( XIST. GEN. (Gwh) 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 $/KW) SUSITNA CAPITAL COST ($/KW) NENANA CO) AL ($/MMBtu) BELUGA COAL ($/MMBtu) COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) COAL ESCALATION COAL CAPITAL COST ($/KW) COAL PIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) O&M (mills/KWh) NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) COAL VAR. OIL cost ($/MMBtu) COMB, TURBINE HEAT RATE NAT. GAS ESC. THRU 1996 ESC. AFTER 1996 OIL ESCALATION CAPITAL COST ($/KW) FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) VAR. O&M ($/MWh) NAT. GAS COM. TUR. COM. TUR. COM. TUR. DISCOUNT SPINNING SPINNING FACTOR RESERVES (MW) RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) HYDROELECTRIC cap. cost ($000) eccoce 14008 14008 14008 14008 14008 145118 145118 145118 145118 145118 145118 145118 145118 145118 cost ($000) EXIST. GEN RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN AB REVISED BRADLEY LAKE AT 90 MW WITH SUSITNA WITHOUT PEAK PERIOD OIL GENERTION NEW GEN. ccoccocce 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 eccocccc]e eccoceccsecoococccce COAL cap. cost (000) eocococcococccocccce osm cost ($000) 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 eccccecce] COMBUSTION TURBINES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 osm cost ($000) 12944 13371 13827 14283 15061 15838 14955 15733 16472 16660 16711 2287 2246 2192 1939 1763 1671 1631 1631 1631 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH FUEL cost ($000) 39042 45193 36452 40775 52645 66032 73739 89481 105942 113422 123880 TRANSMISSION CAP. cosT ($000) osm cost ($000) ‘ 0 0 1264 1264 1264 1264 2640 2640 2640 2640 2640 11486 11486 11486 11486 11486 11486 11486 11486 11486 SPINNING RESERVE. cost ($000) 124922 142148 160144 168710 180235 199499 199458 199404 199151 198975 198883 198843 198843 198843 30 YEARS (2002-2031) CUM. PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE 2174557 2222637 4397194 S-2°e AIGVL POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY 2.143 1.143 1.143 2.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1,143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.69 0.79 0.90 1.03 1.18 1.35 1.54 1.76 2.01 2.30 2.63 3.00 3.43 3.92 4.48 4.57 4.66 4.76 4.85 4.95 R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA TOTAL ENERGY TOTAL EXIST, REQS. CAPAC. —GEN. YEAR (GWh) (Min) (GWh) 1982 2704 45 254 1983 2797 45 254 1984 2892 45 254 1985 2987 45 254 1986 3149 45 254 1987 3311 45 254 1988 3473 45 254 1989 3635 45 254 1990 3797 45 254 1991 3836 45 254 1992 3876 45 254 1993 3915 1065 254 1994 3955 1065 254 1995 3994 1065 254 1996 3977 1065 254 1997 3958 1065 254 1998 3940 1065 254 1999 3921 1065 254 2000 3903 1065 254 2001 3957 1065 254 SUSITNA CAPITAL COST ($/KW) NENANA COAL ($/MMBtu) BELUGA COAL ($/MMBtu) COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) COAL ESCALATION COAL CAPITAL COST ($/KW) COAL FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) COAL VAR. O&M (mills/KWh) NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) OIL COST ($/MMBtu) COMB. TURBINE HEAT RATE NAT. GAS ESC, THRU 1996 NAT, GAS ESC, APTER 1996 OIL ESCALATION COM. TUR. CAPITAL COST($/KW) COM. TUR. PIXED O&M ($/KW-YR COM. TUR. VAR. O&M ($/MWh) DISCOUNT FACTOR SPINNING RESERVES (MW) SPINNING RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) HYDROELECTRIC NEW cap. GEN. cost (GWh) ($000) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3459 131110 3459 131110 3459 © 131110 3459 131110 3459 131110 3459 © 131110 3459 131110 3459 131110 3459 © 131110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100 5100 TOTAL CAPAC, (mw) 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EXIST. GEN. (Gwh) 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 eccocccce RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN D REVISED COMBUSTION TURBINES WITH SUSITNA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WITH PEAK PERIOD OIL GENERATION ecccceccoc co cccoccce osm cost ($000) 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 ecccoccce] PUEL cost ($000) 3947 4026 4106 4188 4272 4358 4445 4534 4624 4717 4811 eccccccc] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COMBUSTION TURBINES NAT, GAS GEN. (Gwh) 1879 1933 2194 2292 2376 2456 2545 2621 2709 2780 2834 202 242 281 264 245 227 208 190 244 cAP. 06M cost cost ($000) ($000) 0 12944 0 = 13371 0 13827 0 14283 o = 15062 271 «15892 271 ~—-:16670 271 0«17447 950 18322 950 18509 950 18561 950 3446 950 3597 950 3730 950 3395 950 3128 950 2950 950 2818 950 2732 950 2991 PUEL cost ($000 40090 46625 38269 42900 55452 69513 84262 101546 119713 128922 141211 7276 9963 13223 14200 13441 12703 11872 11062 14490 TRANSMISSION cap. osm cost cost 000) ($000) 0 0 0 0 3817 1264 3817 1264 3817 1264 3817 1264 3817 1264 3817 1264 3817 1264 3817 1264 3817 1264 33561 = 11110 33561 11110 33561 11110 33561 = 11110 33561 = 11210 33561 = 11110 33561 = 11110 33561 11110 33561 = 11110 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH 30 YEARS (2002-2031) CUM. TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE =~ SPINNING RESERVE. cost ($000) 3819 4165 4560 5012 5528 6118 6793 7564 8445 9452 10603 ecoccccce] 137361 158053 168549 182135 192552 195391 198784 199426 198400 197484 196522 195625 199312 PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH Pw TO JAN 82 ($000) 61718 67092 62928 66240 76687 88116 99191 111687 124769 129179 135525, 139104 137043 135363 131844 127346 123065 118899 114909 113665 2164368 2227881 4392249 9-2°€ AIGVL R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. SUPPLEMENT RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN D REVISED KENIA PENINSULA COMBUSTION TURBINES WITH SUSITNA POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY WITHOUT PEAK PERIOD OIL GENERATION HYDROELECTRIC COAL COMBUSTION TURBINES TRANSMISSION TOTAL ease see =~ SPINNING ENERGY cap. TOTAL EXIST. NEW cap, Om FUEL TOTAL «OIL CT NAT.GAS CAP. 06m FUEL CAP. O&M RESERVE TOTAL —PW_TO REQS. GEN. GEN. cost COST CAPAC. GEN. GEN. cost cost GEN. cost cost cost cost cost cost COST JAN 82 YEAR (GWh) (Gh) ($000) ($000) (Mw) (Gh) (GWh) ($000) ($000) (Gwh) ($000) ($000) ($000) ($000) ($000) + ($000) + ($000) $000) 1.143 1982 2704 45 254 ° o 0 45 276 ° 0 918 3947 $29 281 1893 0 12944 ° 3819 60669 60669 1,143 1983 2797 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4026 922 315 1952 0 © 13371 0 4165 © 67672-65701 12143 1984 2892 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4106 922 144 2218 0 13827 1264 4560 64944 «61216 1.143 1985 2987 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4188 922 137 2320 0 14283 1264 5012 70257 64295 1.143 1986 3149 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4272 922 206 2413 0 15061 1264 5528 8350474192 1.143 1987 3311 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4358 942 279 2502 271 15892 1264 6118 98670 85113 1.143 1988 3473 4s 254 ° 9 9 45 276 9 o 918 4445 942 343 2600 271 ~=—-:16670 = 60127 3817 1264 6793 114304 = 95728 1.143 1989 3635 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 ° 918 4534 942 420 2685 2711744796783 3817 1264 7564 132598 107814 2.143 rtd 3797 “6 236 9 2 ° a 276 o ° 918 4624 978 484 2783 950 18322 114288 3817 1264 8445 152628 120486 1.143 1991 2836 - 254 9 ° S 43 276 Q 0 918 4717 978 443 2863 950 18509 122962 3817 1264 9452 162589 124611 1.143 1992 286 45 254 9 o 9 “3 276 0 o 918 4811 926 420 2926 950 18561 134784 3817 1264 = 10603175708 = 130743 1.143 1993 3915 1065 234 3459132110 $100 8 ® o ° 0 0 917 0 202 950 3446 7276 «= 33561 = 11110 0 192552 139104 1.143 1994 3955 1065 254 3459 131120 $100 0 0 o 0 0 0 902 0 242 950 3597 9963 33561 += :11110 0 195391 137043 1.143 1995 3994 1065 254 3459 132210 9200 o o 0 9 0 0 882 0 281 950 3730-13223. 33561 11110 0 198784 135363 1.143 1996 3977 1065 254 3459 131110 5100 o 0 0 0 0 0 788 0 264 950 3395 14200-33561 =—:11110 0 199426 = 131844 1.02 1997 3958 1065 254 3459 132210 5200 o 0 0 0 0 0 723 0 245 950 3128 13441 33561 11110 0 198400 127346 1.02 1998 3940 1065 254 3459131210 5100 ° o 0 0 0 o 689 0 227 950 2950 12703 33561 11110 0 197484 123065 1.02 4.76 1999 3921 1065 254 3459 131110 5100 0 0 0 0 0 0 674 0 208 950 2818 = 11872-33561 =—11110 0 196522 118899 1.02 4.85 2000 3903 1065 254 3459 131110 $100 0 0 0 0 o ° 674 0 190 950 2732 11062 33561 11110 0 195625 114909 1.02 4.95 2001 3957 1065 254 3459131110 5100 0 0 0 0 0 0 674 0 244 950 2991 14490-33561 11110 0 199312 113665 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH 2131807 30 YEARS (2002-2031) CUM. PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH 2227881 TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE 4359688 SUSITNA CAPITAL COST ($/KW) 3307 NENANA COAL ($/MMBtu) 1.43 BELUGA COAL (S/MMBtu) 1.69 COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) 10000 COAL ESCALATION 1.02 COAL CAPITAL COST ($/KW) 2051 COAL FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) 16.71 COAL VAR. O6M (milis/KWh) 0260 NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) 0.69 OIL COST ($/MMBtu) 6.93 COMB. TURBINE HEAT RATE 12000 NAT. GAS ESC. THRU 1996 1.143 NAT. GAS ESC. AFTER 1996 1.02 OIL ESCALATION 1,02 COM.TUR. CAPITAL COST($/KW) 266 COM. TUR. PIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) 2.70 COM.TUR. VAR. O&M ($/MWh) 4.8 DISCOUNT FACTOR 1.0 SPINNING RESERVES (MW) 100 SPINNING RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) 200 2-2°©€ 31aVvL POWER SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.143 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.69 0.79 0.90 1.03 1.18 1.35 1.54 1.76 2.01 2.30 2.63 3.00 3.43 3.92 4.48 4.57 4.66 4.76 4.85 4.95 R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 SUPPLEMENT RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN E KENIA PENINSULA COMBINED CYCLE COMBUSTION TURBINES WITH PEAK PERIOD OIL GENERATION HYDROELECTRIC COAL COMBUSTION TURBINES TRANSMISSION TOTAL momma nnn nn= seo eer erate meee amen seneeeee ~ SPINNING ENERGY EXIST. NEW CAP. TOTAL EXIST. NEW CAP. 6m FUEL TOTAL OIL CT NAT.GAS CAP. osm FUEL CAP. O&M RESERVE TOTAL ~——PW_ TO. REQS. GEN. GEN. cost GEN. GEN. cost cost cost CAP. GEN GEN. Cost cost cost cost cost cost COST JAN 82 (GWh) (Gh) (GWwh $000 (Gwh (GWh) ($000) ($000) ($000) (GWh) —_(GWh) ($000) ($000) ($000) ($000) ($000) + ($000) ~— ($000) ($000 (*) 2704 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 c 918 3947 929 295 1879 0 12944 = 40090 0 o 3819 61718 = 61718 2797 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4026 922 334 1933 0 = 13371 46625 0 0 4165 69104 67092 2892 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4106 922 168 2194 0 13827-34269 3817 1264 4560 66761 62928 2987 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4188 922 165 2292 0 = 14283 42900 3817 1264 5012 72382 «66240 3149 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4272 922 243 2376 0 15061 55452 3817 1264 5528 86312-76687 3311 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4358 942 325 2456 570 1589267364 3617 1264 6118 100301 86520 3473 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4445 942 398 2545 570 16670 81807 3817 1264 6793 116283 97385 3635 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4534 942 484 2621 570 1744798739 3817 1264 7564 134853 109648 3737 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4624 978 558 2574 1995 17672105302 3817 1264 8445 144037 113704 3836 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4717 978 526 2641 1995 17842112352 3817 1264 9452 152357 116769 3876 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4811 976 512 2692 6528 18016 += 108793 3817 1264 = 10603154750 115149 3915, 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 4907 1017 101 3120 6528 18206 += 90868 = 33561 += 11110 = 11919 178017 128603 3955 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 5005 1002 110 3149 6528 18350104739 «33561 =—-11110 13423 193634 13581 3994 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 5106 1052 119 2843 6528 17059 «104858 = 33561-11110 15142 194282 132297 3977 45 254 0 0 0 45 276 0 0 918 5208 1028 128 2621 11061-16932 11049333561 ~=—11110 17107206390 136448 3958 45 254 0 0 0 20 123 0 0 408 2367 1013 137 2927-11061 17444 «117345 = 33561 = 11110 = -17422 «210718 ~—135252 3940 45 254 0 0 0 20 123 0 0 408 2415 979 146 2904 = 11061-17285 11993933561 «1111017742 213521 133059 3921 45 254 0 0 0 20 123 0 0 408 2463 964 155 2881 = 11061-17174 «122484 = 33561 11110-18069 -216329 13088. 3903 45 254 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1014 164 2962-11061 «=«:17744 = 129065 = 33561 = 11110» 18402 © 22094312978 3957 45 254 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1014 173 3001 © 11061-17971, 134177, 3356111210 18742226621 129239 * Calculation excludes estimated generation available trom steam cycle CT. CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH 2165211 30 YEARS (2002-2031) CUM. PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH 2533141 TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE 4698352 SUSITNA CAPITAL COST ($/KW) 3307 NENANA COAL ($/MMBtu) 1.43 BELUGA COAL ($/MMBtu) 1.69 COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) 10000 COAL ESCALATION 1.02 COAL CAPITAL COST ($/KW) 2051 COAL FIXED O&M (S/KW-YR) 16.71 COAL VAR. O&M (mil1s/KWh) 0260 NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) 0.69 OIL COST ($/MMBtu) 6.93 COMB. TURBINE HEAT RATE 12000 NAT. GAS ESC. THRU 1996 1.143 NAT. GAS ESC. APTER 1996 1.02 OIL ESCALATION 1.02 COM.TUR. CAPITAL COST($/KW) 266 CCCT CAPITAL COST ($/KW) aaa COM.TUR. FIXED O&M($/KW-YR) 2.70 COM.TUR. VAR. O&M ($/MWh) 4.8 DISCOUNT PACTOR 1.03 SPINNING RESERVES (MW) 100 SPINNING RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) 200 8-c°©€ AIGVL POWER 1.143 0.69 1.143 0.79 1.143 0.90 1.143 1.03 1.143 1.18 1.143 1.35 1.143 1.54 1.143 1.76 1.143 2.01 1.143 2.30 1.143 2.63 1.143 3.00 1.143 3.43 1.143 3.92 1.143 4.48 1.02 4.57 1.02 4.66 1.02 4.76 1.02 4.85 1.02 4.95 R. W. Beck and Associates,inc. SUPPLY AND TRANSMISSION STUDY YEAR 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 SUPPLEMENT KENIA PENINSULA ‘TOTAL nonene ENERGY TOTAL EXIST. REQS. GEN. (GWh) (GWh) 2704 45 254 2797 45 254 2892 45 254 2987 45 254 3149 45 254 3311 45 254 3473 45 254 3635 45 254 3797 45 254 3836 45 254 3876 45 254 3915 45 254 3955 45 254 3994 45 254 3977 45 254 3958 45 254 3940 45 254 3921 45 254 3903 45 254 3957 45 254 * Calculation excludes estimated generation available from steam cycle CT. SUSITNA CAPITAL COST ($/KW) NENANA COAL ($/MMBtu) BELUGA COAL ($/MMBtu) COAL HEAT RATE (Btu/KWh) COAL ESCALATION COAL CAPITAL COST ($/KW) COAL FIXED O&M ($/KW-YR) COAL VAR. O&M (mills/KWh NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) OIL COST ($/MMBtu) COMB. TURBINE HEAT RATE NAT. GAS ESC. THRU 1996 NAT. GAS ESC. APTER 1996 OIL ESCALATION COM. TUR. CAPITAL COST($/KW) CCCT CAPITAL COST ($/KW) COM.TUR. PIXED O6M($/KW-YR) COM.TUR. VAR. O&M ($/MWh) DISCOUNT FACTOR SPINNING RESERVES (MW) SPINNING RSRVS. W/COAL (MW) HYDROELECTRIC NEW cap. GEN. cost (GWh) ($000) ecoccococcccccoccoc] 3307 1.43 1.69 10000 1,02 2051 16.71 0.60 0.69 6.93 12000 21.143 1.02 1.02 266 444 2.70 4.8 1.03 100 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6M cost ($000) eocceccccoccoccecoc] 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 123 123 123 eccoccoceccoccccecce RAILBELT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS-PLAN E COMBINED CYCLE COMBUSTION TURBINES WITHOUT PEAK PERIOD OIL GENERATION ccoocccccceececocece 8M cost ($000) 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 918 408 408 408 0 0 FUEL cost ($000) 3947 4026 4106 4188 4272 4358 4445 4534 4624 4717 4811 4907 5005 5106 5208 2367 2415 2463 0 0 TOTAL CAP. (ow) 929 922 922 922 922 942 942 942 978 978 976 1017 1002 1052 1028 1013 979 964 1014 1014 OIL cr GEN (GWh) 281 315 144 137 206 279 343 420 484 443 420 eccocccce COMBUSTION TURBINES NAT. GAS GEN. (GWh) 1893 1952 2218 2320 2413 2502 2600 2685 2644 2720 2780 3216 3254 2944 2930 3044 3029 3012 3102 3148 cap. 06M FUEL cost cost cosT ($000) ($000) ( (sy 0 12944 «= 39042 0 = 1337145193 0 = =13827 36452 0 = 14283 = 40775 0 15061 52645 570 15892-63884 570 16670 += 77671 570 17447 «= -93976 1995 17654 99788 1995 17822106277 6528 =17994 102221 6528 =:18182 83881 6528 = 18323-97440 6528 16974 96817 11061 = 16839 ~—-100095 11061 17346 ~=—:106096 11061 17180 +=—:107642 11061 17062 ~=—109215 11061 = 17626 =—-114733 11061 = 17846 =118744 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH TRANSMISSION =-- SPINNING osm cost ($000) RESERVE cost ($000) 3819 4165 4560 5012 5528 6118 6793 7564 8445 9452 10603 11919 13423 15142 17107 17422 17742 18069 18402 18742 ‘TOTAL cost ($000) 60669 67672 64944 70257 83504 96820 112147 130090 138505 146262 148156 171005 186309 186155 195899 199371 201119 202949 206493 211064 30 YEARS (2002-2031) CUM, PW AT NO ADDITIONAL GROWTH TOTAL CUMULATIVE PW OF ALTERNATIVE PW TO JAN 82 ($000) 60669 65701 61216 64295 74192 83518 93922 105775, 109337 112098 110242 123538 130673 126762 129512 127968 125331 122788 121293 120367 2069198 2359242 4428439 6-2°€ AIGVL APPENDIX A DATA SOURCES Railbelt Electric Power Alternatives Study: Evaluation of Railbelt Elec- tric Energy Plans, prepared by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories for the Office of the Governor, State of Alaska, Division of Policy Development and Planning and the Governor's Policy Review Committee, February 1982. Bradley Lake Power Market Report, United States Department of Energy, Alaska Power Administration, January 1982. Anchorage-Fairbanks Transmission Intertie System Data (Draft), prepared by Commonwealth Associates, Inc. for The Alaska Power Authority, November 1980, Revised June 1981. Susitna Hydroelectric Project, Feasibility Report, Volume 1, First Draft, Sections 9-16, prepared by ACRES for the Alaska Power Authority.