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HomeMy WebLinkAboutUnalaska-Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study Findings & Recommendations 1985una © 014 Cee Alaska Power Authority Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study Findings and Recommendations LIBRARY COPY April 1985 q TTT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS David N. Denig-Chakroff Project Manager April 1985 Brent N. Petrie, Director Edwin L. Morris, Associate Power Systems Planning Executive Director, Planning Robert D. Heath Executive Director © 1985 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY PROPERTY OF: Alaska Power Authority 334 W. 5th Ave. Anchorage, Alaska 99501 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ....-cccvccscccccccucccccccscccccveccccccssccees ii LIST_OF! FIGURES! ois) oo iio se eben a sisleeeiscle-e:elele slpias.e-e.0/e ealsle-e elacse.es iv PREFACE eles clelestelels s.ols-st4 slee-elalelt ololecs-slstele-s.sle.0s|ole.6.slelele-e/sinis.e sola sero. Vv I. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS ........ ccc eee ec cece cee eeeeeeeeeeee 1 TI. COMMUNITY PROFILE ......... ccc cece cece eect cece eeeceeeees 6 III. EXISTING POWER FACILITIES AND LOADS ..........eeeeeeeeees 11 IV. GROWTH SCENARIOS AND LOAD FORECASTS ......eeeeeeeeeeeeees 16 V. DESCRIPTION OF BASE CASE AND ALTERNATIVES .........eeeeee 28 VI. RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ........ cece cece cece eee ence 38 VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......cccceeeeeeeeeeeees 48 REFERENCES ......cseeseeeeeeees eect lece lore iese-oleloleis]tlele s| sie. sles sce sles ele 52 APPENDIX A: Population and Electric Load Forecasts ............ 54 APPENDIX B: Energy Production and Power System Plans .......... 65 APPENDIX C: Annual Costs and Economic Analyses ........ceeeeeee 107 APPENDIX D: Construction Costs of Power System Alternatives ... 150 APPENDIX E: Sensitivity Analyses .....cccc cece ccc ccccccccceeece 163 ii w nN Oo oO - LIST OF TABLES Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Industrial Loads ..........eseeeeee 13 Unalaska/Dutch Harbor City Services Load, 1984 .......... 14 Annual Operation and Maintenance Costs of Base Case and Geothermal Power Systems ........cceccecececeees 30 Summary of Total Flow Geothermal Alternatives ........... 33 Summary of Binary Geothermal Alternatives ..........eeeee 34 Summary of Hydroelectric Alternatives ........ccseeeeeeee 37 Fuel Escalation Rates ........ccccccccccecccceccccssecees 47 iii LIST OF FIGURES 1. Map showing the location of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor ........ 7 2. Historic and forecast population trends, 1965-2005 ....... 8 3. Commercial fishing activity, 1976-1984 ........... cece eee 8 4. Low growth scenario electric load forecast .......eeeeeees 20 5. Electric demand forecast for three growth scenarios ...... 20 6. Moderate growth scenario electric load forecast .......... 24 7. High growth scenario electric load forecast ........eeeeee 27 8. Low growth scenario economic analySiS .......ceeeeceeeeees 40 9. Moderate growth scenario economic analySiS ........eeeeees 41 10. High growth scenario economic analySiS ......eeceeeeeceees 42 11. Low growth scenario sensitivity analySiS ......seeeeeeeeee 44 12. Moderate growth scenario sensitivity analysis ............ 45 13. High scenario sensitivity analySiS .......cccecceeeeeeeees 45 KEY TO FIGURES .......c cece cece ccc eee cece eee e eee eeeeeeeees 53 iv PREFACE This report presents the results of a reconnaissance study of energy requirements and alternatives for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. The Alaska Power Authority initiated the reconnaissance study in August 1983, and a consultant, under contract to the Power Author- ity, submitted a preliminary draft report in April 1984. In the summer of 1984, the Power Authority obtained the results of flow tests and reservoir analyses from its geothermal exploration program on Unalaska Island. These results revealed a significantly more productive resource than had previously been anticipated. It became apparent that the scope of work originally contracted for the reconnaissance study was insufficient to address the full range of alternatives available to the community. Power Authority staff expanded and completed the study using methods and data provided in the consultant's draft. SECTION I OBJECTIVE AND METHODS The objective of the reconnaissance study was to determine the least expensive method of meeting the future energy needs of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor community. This was accomplished by project- ing probable levels of future power demand in the community and conducting an economic analysis to compare various alternative power systems capable of meeting that demand. The first step in the analysis was to develop a community profile. This profile was used as a basis on which to make population and energy load forecasts. Past population trends and employment activity were analyzed to determine what aspects of the community's development have had a significant effect on its economy. In Unalaska, it was determined that commercial fishing and crabbing and seafood processing have had the greatest effect on population and economic growth in the recent past. This trend is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. In addition, numerous other industries and activities are developing or are proposed for the community that could have a significant effect on future growth. The community profile also provides a 1985 population estimate on which to base a population projection. 9249/377 1 The next phase of the analysis consisted of a survey of existing power generation facilities in the community as well as recent past and current electric loads. This information was analyzed with respect to the community profile in order to determine how popu- lation and economic trends affect power demand in the community. It: provided data necessary to determine the relationship between base loads and peak loads, thus allowing for the formulation of load factors for various categories of energy consumer. Finally, the power facility and load survey was used to calculate a current power demand for the community, which could be used as a basis for future electric load forecasts. Based on the community profile and existing power loads, three community growth scenarios were developed for a twenty-year plan- ning period from 1985 to 2005. Twenty years was considered to be the extent of time for which projections could be reasonably made. Population and electric load forecasts were developed for low, moderate, and high growth scenarios in order to analyze the effect of community growth on the economics of various alternative power systems. The low growth scenario assumed a two percent average annual population increase, no significant new industrial growth, and a slow recovery of the shellfish fishery in the region. The moderate growth scenario assumed a four percent average annual population increase, limited new industrial growth, and a moderate recovery of the shellfish fishery. The high growth scenario assumed an eleven percent average annual population increase, 9249/377 2 moderate recovery of the shellfish fishery, and the establishment of a low-level bottomfish industry in the community. Various power system options were analyzed based on power gener- ating technologies available to the community. A power system consisting of the continued use of diesel-powered generators to meet the total electric demand of the community was established as a base case with which to compare a number of alternative power systems. Two geothermal system technologies (total flow and binary) and three hydroelectric systems were analyzed as alterna- tives to the base case. For the total flow and binary geothermal systems, ten different system sizes were taken into consideration. The hydroelectric systems analyzed were based on two Corps of Engineers proposals (Shaishnikof River and Pyramid Creek). Each hydroelectric proposal was considered as a single alternative, and the construction and operation of both systems was considered as a third hydroelectric alternative. Development costs were derived for each power system option for use in the economic analysis. For the base case and each alternative technology, power system plans were developed for each of the three growth scenarios. A base case plan was developed for each scenario, consisting of the diesel capacity addition/replacement schedule that would be needed to meet the power demand of the community under the respective scenario. Six total flow geothermal plans were developed for each growth scenario, based on the installation of one to six geothermal 9249/377 3 power production units. Four binary geothermal power plans were formulated for each scenario, based on the installation of one to four binary geothermal units. Three hydroelectric power plans were developed for each growth scenario using the three hydroelectric systems proposed. The alternative power system plans assumed that diesel generators would be used to meet demands that could not be met by the alternative technology. Consequently, each alternative power system plan consisted of an alternative technology power production component and a diesel power production component. In order to encompass the life cycle of the various alternative technologies, power system plans were developed for a 40-year period from 1985 to 2025. Since the 20-year electric load fore- casts were terminated in 2005, the load for that year (for each scenario) was used as the annual load from 2006 to 2025 for the purpose of formulating the power system plans. Annual costs were formulated for each power system plan. These included development costs, fuel costs, and operation and mainte- nance costs (in 1983 dollars) calculated on a yearly basis for the life of the system. Fuel costs were determined on the basis of a 20-year projection of fuel escalation rates. This projection assumed that fuel prices would decrease by four percent in the first year of analysis, remain level for the next two years, and then increase by two percent annually for seventeen years. The fuel price projected for the twentieth year was used for the 9249/377 4 remainder of the 40-year life-cycle analysis. The total life-cycle cost of each power system plan was determined by calculating the net present value of the annual costs using a 3.5 percent discount rate. A comparison of the net present values indicated the econom- ically optimum alternative for each growth scenario. The net present value of the base case divided by the net present value of each alternative gave a cost-to-cost ratio of the alternative to the base case. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the base case and on the optimum total flow, binary, and hydroelectric alternatives for each growth scenario. The sensitivity analysis evaluated a 4.5 percent discount rate and two additional fuel escalation rates to determine the effect they would have on the economics of the power system plans. 9249/377 5 SECTION II COMMUNITY PROFILE Unalaska Island is located in the Aleutian Archipelago, about 800 miles southwest of Anchorage (Figure 1). The City of Unalaska, consisting of the adjacent communities of Unalaska and Dutch Harbor, is situated at the northern end of the island on Unalaska Bay. Originally an Aleut village, Unalaska became an important crossroads for shipping and trade during the Russian occupation (1741-1867) and during the Klondike and Nome gold rushes from 1897 to 1900. Its sheltered, deep-water port made Dutch Harbor a prime location for a major naval base during World War II. Since that time, the fishing and crabbing industries have been the mainstay of Unalaska's economy. In recent years, Dutch Harbor has also become an important center of marine operations and maintenance and of bulk storage facilities servicing all of western Alaska. According to the U.S. Bureau of Census, between 1831--the first year data are available--and 1960, the population of Unalaska varied between 200 and 400, excluding the military presence during World War II. Between 1960 and 1970, however, the growth rate averaged 4.6 percent annually and, between 1970 and 1980, it aver- 9249/377 6 Vaccey® UNALASKA ISLAND @ ccormeniaar resource were Figure 1. Map Showing the location of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor aged 14.5 percent annually (Figure 2). Alaska Department of Labor statistics from 1980 to 1983 show that the population surged between 1980 and 1981 leveling off at a population of 1,900 to 2,000. Since 1983, City officials estimate that the population has dropped to about 1,500; although, there has been no standardized survey to verify this. The recent variations in population are attributed to fluctuations in the community's major industries--commercial fisheries and seafood processing. Commercial fisheries landings at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor reached an all-time high in 1979 and 1980 with over 136 million pounds landed in each of those years (Figure 3). In 1981, the catch declined by nearly half and by 1982 had 9249/377 7 “ oo eo coc 8G aGe 8 eB oro fn YT MO N HH GD ooo aqeoo no nv xt OO at tt (spuvenoyy NOILVINdOd st population trends, 1965-2005. and foreca Evi ISG) ~~ — — — — — — — — — — —) ee eee 8a& NMFS, 1976-1984) Figure 3. Commercial fishing activity, 1976-1984 (Source Department of Commerce, 8 9249/377 leveled off at approximately 47 million pounds per year, where it remained through 1984. According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (1985), the catch decreases were due to coincident de- clines in the Red King crab and Tanner crab populations. The Red King fishery was closed during the 1983-84 and 1984-85 seasons. Recent national Marine Fisheries Service surveys indicate the the Red King Crab populations have begun a recovery, and a 1985-86 fishing season is anticipated. In addition, the 1985 Tanner Crab catch appears to be significantly improved over recent years. Fish and Game officials cautiously accept these as signals that the commercial fisheries industry is again on the upswing and have initiated fish management practices designed to prevent such a serious decline in shellfish populations in the future. In recent years, Unalaska city officials have made a concerted effort to diversify the area economy by actively pursuing projects and activities that would broaden the economic base of the commun- ity. There is already a significant marine supply and maintenance service industry established on the island. Since Dutch Harbor is the only deep-water port in the state west of Kodiak, it has become a center for shipping and bulk fuel storage for all of western Alaska. The city completed a new airport terminal in 1984 and is attempting to secure funds for a proposed airport runway extension. The U.S. Coast Guard is considering Dutch Harbor as the site of a large search-and-rescue station, and the petroleum industry has stated its intention of using Unalaska as the staging area for 9249/377 9 development of Bering Sea oi] fields if hydrocarbon discoveries are made. Oil exploration activities are currently served by facil- ities at Dutch Harbor. The potential for the greatest economic growth at Unalaska lies in the future of the Bering Sea bottomfishery. Due to its proximity to the bottomfishing grounds, its established infrastructure, and its role as a regional transportation center, Unalaska would be greatly affected by the growth of this industry. Dames & Moore (1982) estimated that the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would grow from eleven to fifteen percent annually for twenty years if a bottomfish industry were established. 9249/377 10 SECTION III EXISTING POWER FACILITIES AND LOADS The City of Unalaska owns and operates the local electric utility. The utility is currently in the process of increasing generating capacity, moving the power plant, and significantly expanding the electric distribution system. These changes will enable the city to serve many industrial and commercial customers that now provide for their own electric needs. Moving the powerhouse will require the city to abandon a waste heat demonstration project installed in 1982 at the old plant. This system heats numerous public buildings including the city hall, the high school, and the public swimming pool. The waste heat project was very successful and, by the time the move is complete in September 1985, city officials estimate that payback on the system will have been achieved. Pumps and heat exchangers from the system will be salvaged for future use. Generators installed in the new powerhouse will be retrofitted for future connection to a waste heat system, although there is no immediate plan to construct a system at the new plant. 9249/377 11 All of the electric power on the island is produced by diesel powered generators. The city utility's installed capacity is currently 3.9 MW with plans to expand to 9.5 MW by 1987. A recent survey of commercial and industrial facilities that provide their own power revealed a capacity of 10.4 MW in industry-owned gener- ators on the island. Industrial electric loads, particularly those associated with the seafood processing industry, account for the largest and most variable proportion of the community's total electric load. Some of the industrial users own and operate large commercial establish- ments and residential housing complexes for which they also provide electric power. These loads have not been provided by the munic- ipal utility in the past, and electric use has been poorly moni- tored by the industry. Consequently, past and present industrial electric loads in the community are difficult to establish. The best source of data on industrial loads in the community is a survey conducted by the city in 1983 using chart recorders and operation log books of industry-owned generators. The results of the survey are shown in Table 1. Figures in Table 1 reflect loads for industrial facilities and industry-owned commercial establish- ments but do not include loads for residential complexes owned by industry. The 1983 industrial loads reflect a year of low commer- cial fishing activity at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor (Figure 3). Table 1 also contains an estimate of 1984 industrial loads which are 9249/377 12 ‘ significantly lower than the 1983 loads due to the fact that several industrial facilities either did not operate or signifi- cantly reduced their operations in 1984. These closings and curtailments of operation occurred even though the level of commer- cial fishing activity at Dutch Harbor was nearly the same in 1983 and 1984. City officials believe that the reduction in shore-based processing was due to an increase in the use of floating processors. Table 1 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR INDUSTRIAL LOADS 1983 1984 Estimate ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND USE DEMAND (MWh/yr) (kW) (MWh/yr) (kW) American President Lines! 526 | 1,120 585 1,246 East Point Seafoods¢ 841 860 841 860 Pacific Pearl Seafoods? 1,314 570 395 171 Pan Alaska Seafoods* 3,942 1,750 790 351 Panama Marine? 3,000 1,317 395 173 Sea Alaska® 3,942 1,750 655 291 Standard 071 Company” 438 105 460 110 Universal Seafoods® 5,256 1,500 5,014 1,431 Whitney Fidalgo Seafoods? 1,708 750 0 0 TOTALS 20,967 9,135 Large dock facility and storage yard. Seafood processing industrial complex. Seafood processing industrial complex. Seafood processing industrial complex. Commercial shipyard for marine repairs, including machine shops and dry docks. Seafood processing industrial complex. Bulk fuel storage plant and dock facilities. Large seafood processing industrial complex. Seafood processing industrial complex. WODNDHPWNHHE 9249/377 13 Existing commercial consumers, other than those associated with industrial operations, are connected to the city distribution system, and their demand is monitored by the municipal utility. There are currently twenty-nine such customers with a combined load of 578,400 kWh per year. Consequently, the average load for commercial consumers is 1,662 kWh per month. Municipal power demand includes the airport, a boat harbor, a city dock, street lights, and numerous additional public buildings and facilities. The current electric load for city services is con- tained in Table 2. Table 2 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR CITY SERVICES LOAD, 1984 ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND (MWh/yr) (kW) Airport 296 75 Boat Harbor 438 200 City Dock 175 80 Street lights 30. 8 Other facilities 500 163 TOTAL 1,439 Residential loads in the community cannot be determined with absolute certainty since many residential customers are not yet connected to the city distribution system. However, the average use per residential customer on the city system is 484 kWh per 9249/377 14 month. Using this average, the current population estimate of 1,500, and assumptions concerning residential use described in Section IV of this report (page 17), a current residential load of 2,510 MWh per year is estimated. By combining the industrial, commercial, city services, and res- idential loads, a total exiting electric load of 13,663 MWh per year is obtained. Assuming a thirty percent load factor, the coincident peak demand would be 5.2 MW. These figures were used as the 1985 loads on which load forecasts for this study were based. 9249/377 15 SECTION IV GROWTH SCENARIOS AND LOAD FORECASTS GENERAL This section describes the low, moderate, and high growth scenarios used for the reconnaissance economic analysis. A population forecast, broken down by resident and transient population, was developed for each growth scenario for the twenty-year planning period from 1985 to 2005 (Figure 2). This population projection was used to develop a residential electric forecast for the same planning period. The residential load projection was then combined with commercial, city services, and industrial load forecasts to arrive at a total load forecast for each growth scenario. The detailed population and load projections are contained in Ap- pendix A. LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Population This population forecast assumed a 1985 base population of 1,500 consisting of sixty percent or 900 full-time residents and a transient population of 600 or forty percent. It was assumed that 9249/377 16 the population would increase by two percent annually for twenty years maintaining the sixty percent/forty percent ratio of full-time residents to transient population. Under this scenario, the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would reach 2,229 by the end of the planning period in 2005 (Figure 2). Residential Load The residential electric load forecast was based on the city utility's measured average of 484 kWh per month for a residential customer. It was assumed that this average would increase gradual- ly over a three-year period and stabilize at 550 kWh per month. The forecast assumed that sixty percent of the full-time resi- dential population would live in single-family dwellings with an average of three residents per dwelling. It assumed that forty percent of the residents and all of the transient population would live in multi-family dwellings with an average of three residents per unit and a vacancy rate of twenty-five percent. This resident-per-unit figure for multi-family dwellings was based on the assumption that many transients would live in dormitory-style housing provided by industrial employers. Annual energy use calculations were based on an assumption that the average use per single-family dwelling would be fifty percent greater that the average use per multi-family unit. The residential peak demand assumed a twenty percent load factor. Under the low growth scen- ario, the residential load would increase from 2,510 MWh per year 9249/377 17 in 1985 to 4,239 MWh per year in 2005, and the residential peak demand would increase from 1.4 MW to 2.4 MW. Commercial Load The commercial electric load forecast was based on the city utili- ty's 1984 measured average of 1,662 kWh per month for twenty-nine commercial customers. It was assumed that this average would increase gradually over a three-year period and stabilize at 2,500 kWh per month. The low growth forecast assumed that the number of commercial customers would increase at a rate of two percent annually. The commercial peak demand assumed a twenty-five percent load factor. Under this growth scenario, the commercial electric load would increase from 578 MWh per year in 1985 to 1,293 MWh per year twenty years later. The commercial peak demand would increase from 264 kW to 590 kW over the same period. City Services Load The city services electric load forecast was based on the 1984 measured load of 1,439 MWh per year (Table 2). Under the low growth scenario the city services load would increase two percent annually for the twenty-year planning period reaching 2,138 MWh per year. The peak demand, based on a thirty-five percent load factor, would increase from 469 kW in 1985 to 697 kW in 2005. 9249/377 18 Industrial Load The 1983 industrial load survey conducted by the city utility (Table 1) was used as a basis on which to make current and future industrial load projections for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. The 1984 estimate of 9,135 MWh per year was based on known facility closures and reductions in industrial operations. Due to the presence of well maintained, underutilized facilities, and considering that 1983 was a year of low commercial fishing activity at Dutch Harbor, it was assumed that the 1983 level of industrial loads would recur relatively quickly even with a slow recovery of the fisheries industry. As a conservative estimate, under the low growth scen- ario, it was assumed that industrial loads would increase steadily, again reaching the 1983 level of 20,967 MWh per year in 1995 and would stabilize at that level through the end of the planning period (Figure 4). Assuming a twenty-five percent load factor, the industrial peak demand would increase from 4.2 MW in 1985 to 9.6 MW in 1995. Total Electric Load The residential, commercial, city services, and industrial energy use forecasts were combined to obtain a total electric load for the low growth scenario of 13,663 MWh per year in 1985, increasing over the planning period to 28,637 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 4). The coincident peak demand, assuming a thirty percent load factor, would increase from 5.2 MW in 1985 to 10.9 MW in 2005 (Figure 5). 9249/337 19 100 + 90 4 80 4 i > \ 70 ane 39 | (60 - “a he 50 ay 7 ie we = 404 oM~ % Ry 30 4 Zz | 4 a TOTAL LOAD 20 + INDUSTRIAL LOAD 10 NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD 0 + r — —— So] 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR Figure 4. Low growth scenario electric load forecast. 40 + — 35 4 e 30 4 2 M 25 4 < a ou o- iy 2 i HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO F 15 5 Z MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 3 Ha o * LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 5 .- SS r 7 op a 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR Figure 5. Electric demand forecast for three growth scenarios. 9249/337 20 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO Population This population forecast again assumed a 1985 base population of 1,500 consisting of sixty percent or 900 full-time residents and a transient population or 600 or forty percent. It was assumed that the population would increase by four percent annually for twenty years. It was further assumed that as the population increased, the percentage of full-time residents would increase by one percent a year reaching an eighty percent/twenty percent ratio of resident to transient population by 2005. Under the moderate growth scen- ario, the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would reach 3,287 by the end of the planning period (Figure 2). Residential Load The assumptions used for formulating the residential load forecast under the moderate growth scenario were the same as those described for the low growth scenario (page 17). Under the moderate growth scenario, the residential load would increase from 2,510 MWh per year in 1985 to 6,473 MWh per year in 2005. The residential peak demand would increase from 1.4 MW to 3.7 MW. 9249/337 21 Commercial Load The commercial electric load forecasts were based on the city utility's 1984 measured average of 1,662 kWh per month for twenty-nine commercial customers. It was assumed that this average would increase gradually over a three-year period and would sta- bilize at 2,500 kWh per month. The moderate growth scenario assumed that the number of commercial customers would increase at a rate of four percent annually. Based on these assumptions, the commercial electric load would increase from 578 MWh per year in 1985 to 1,906 MWh per year twenty years later. Using a twenty-five percent load factor, the commercial peak demand would increase from 264 kW to 870 kW over the same period. City Services Load The city services electric load was based on the current measured load of 1,439 MWh per year (Table 2). Under the moderate growth scenario the city services load would increase four percent an- nually for the twenty-year planning period reaching 3,153 MWh per year. The peak demand, based on a thirty-five percent load factor, would increase from 469 kW in 1985 to 1,028 kW in 2005. 9249/337 22 Industrial Load As described previously for the low growth scenario, the industrial load forecast for the moderate growth scenario was based on the 1983 and 1984 industrial loads contained in Table 1. For the moderate growth scenario, it was assumed that industrial loads would increase at a steady rate, reaching the 1983 level of 20,967 MWh per year in 1990 and would continue to increase for an additional five years at half that rate, reaching 26,883 MWh per year in 1995, where it would remain through the end of the planning period (Figure 6). This additional increase in industrial loads could be due to continued growth in the fisheries industry or to the establishment of a new industrial base such as oil and gas production services. Assuming’ a twenty-five percent load factor, the industrial peak demand would increase from 4.2 MW in 1985 to 12.3 MW in 1995. Total Electric Load The residential, commercial, city services, and industrial energy use forecasts were combined to obtain a total electric load for the moderate growth scenario of 13,663 MWh per year in 1985, increasing over the planning period to 38,415 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 6). The coincident peak demand, assuming a thirty percent load factor, would increase from 5.2 MW in 1985 to 14.6 MW in 2005 (Figure 5). 9249/337 23 100 90 4 80 a > N 70 4 E> 35 © 804 ¢ we so ag ° 40 me : 7 30 4 TOTAL LOAD a i INDUSTRIAL LOAD 20 4 | 10 4 t NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD Ta S404 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR Figure 6. Moderate growth scenario electric load forecast. HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO = Population This population forecast assumed a 1985 base population of 1,500 consisting of sixty percent or 900 full-time residents and a transient population of 600 or forty percent. It was assumed that the population would increase by eleven percent annually for twenty years. This population forecast was based on projections by Dames and Moore (1982) assuming establishment of a bottomfish industry in the community. It was further assumed that as the population increased, the percentage of full-time residents would increase by two percent a year reaching an eighty percent/twenty percent ratio 9249/337 24 of resident to transient population by 1995. Under this scenario, the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would reach 12,093 by the end of the planning period (Figure 2). Residential Load The assumptions used for formulating the residential load forecast under the high growth scenario were the same as those described for the low growth scenario (page 17). Under the high growth scenario, the residential load would increase from 2,510 MWh per year in 1985 to 23,816 MWh per year in 2005. The residential peak demand would increase from 1.4 MW to 13.6 MW. Commercial Load The commercial electric load forecast was again based on the city utility's 1984 measured average of 1,662 kWh per month for twenty-nine commercial customers. It was assumed that this average would increase gradually over a three-year period and stabilize at 2,500 kWh per month. The high growth scenario assumed that the number of commercial customers would increase at a rate of eleven percent annually. based on these assumptions, the commercial electrical load would increase from 578 MWh per year in 1985 to 7,014 MWh per year twenty years later. Using a twenty-five percent load factor, the commercial peak demand would increase from 264 kW to 3.2 MW over the same period. 9249/337 25 City Services Load The city services electric load was based on the current measured load of 1,439 MWh per year (Table 2). Under the high growth scenario the city services load would increase eleven percent annually for the twenty-year planning period reaching 11,602 MWh per year. The peak demand, based on a thirty-five percent load factor, would increase from 469 kW in 1985 to 3.8 MW in 2005. Industrial Load As described for the low growth scenario, the industrial load forecast for the high growth scenario was based on the 1983 and 1984 industrial loads contained in Table 1. In addition to the industrial growth under the moderate growth scenario, the high growth scenario assumed the establishment of a low-level bottomfish industry as described by Dames & Moore (1982). The energy use forecast for the bottomfish portion of the industrial load was modified from Acres' 1984 forecast (contained in Appendix A), assuming that twenty-five percent of the bottomfish catch would be processed by shore-based processors in Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. For the purpose of this study, it was assumed that the first effect of bottomfish processing would be seen in 1986. Under the high growth scenario, industrial energy use would increase from 9,135 MWh per year in 1985 to 50,333 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 7). Assuming a twenty-five percent load factor, the industrial peak demand would increase from 4.2 MW in 1985 to 23.0 MW in 1995. 9249/337 26 Total Electric Load The residential, commercial, city services, and industrial energy use forecasts were combined to obtain a total electric load for the high growth scenario of 13,663 MWh per yea in 1985, increasing over the planning period to 92,765 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 7). The coincident peak demand, assuming a thirty percent load factor, would increase from 5.2 MW in 1985 to 35.3 MW in 2005 (Figure 5). 100 ~- 90 5 Ay 7 80 4 a 5 - \ 70 - Eo e Ay 60 - “a He 50 ng Do TOTAL LOAD Sal £ 40 Lat um m a 30 5 INDUSTRIAL LOAD a 20 10 NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD o-+-—— + Sr a — —} 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR Figure 7. High growth scenario electric load forecast. 9249/337 27 SECTION V DESCRIPTION OF BASE CASE AND ALTERNATIVES GENERAL A wide range of power production technologies were evaluated for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. Coal, wood, and peat were discounted as energy resources due to lack of availability in the region. Wind and solar energy were considered too expensive to meet any signifi- cant level of power demand in the community. Energy conservation practices are already in effect in the community and are likely to continue under any future power system plan. After evaluating available power system options, three were selected for further analysis: geothermal, hydroelectric, and diesel generators. BASE CASE The base case power system plans used for this analysis consisted of the continued use of diesel powered generators to meet the total electric demand of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor community. A base case plan was developed for each of the three growth scenarios analyzed. The base case plans assumed that all customers on the city's expanded electric distribution system would purchase power from the municipal utility. The existing 3.9 MW capacity of the city utility system would be expanded, as currently planned, to 9249/337 28 9.5 MW in 1987. The base case plans assumed that, after 1987, diesel generator capacity would be added in 2.5 MW increments, as needed, such that the needs projected in each growth scenario could be met with firm capacity (the system capacity with the largest available unit down for maintenance). It was also assumed that existing and new diesel powered generators have a twenty-year life. Based on these assumptions, diesel capacity addition and replace- ment schedules were formulated for each of the three growth scenar- jos. These schedules are contained in Appendix B. The annual costs of the base case plans were calculated in 1983 dollars for the period of economic analysis from 1985 to 2025. Total annual system costs included fuel costs, addition and re- placement costs, and operation and maintenance costs. Fuel cost, a function of quantity used and price, was based on an assumption that the diesel generators would produce twelve kWh per gallon of fuel. Fuel price was based on the January 1985 price of diesel fuel available to the new powerhouse, which was 87.6 cents per gallon. For the purpose of this study, it was assumed that the price of fuel would decrease by four percent in 1986, remain at that level for two additional years, and increase by two percent annually from 1989 until the end of the planning period in 2005. The cost used for diesel capacity addition and replacement was $700.00 per kW installed capacity, which is the city's estimated cost of installation in the new powerhouse. The same cost per installed kW was used at the end of the period of economic analysis 9249/337 29 to calculate the salvage value of unused capacity. Annual opera- tion and maintenance costs are detailed in Table 3 and total $1,012,000 per year. The annual costs of the base case power system plan for each growth scenario are contained in Appendix C. Table 3 ANNUAL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS OF BASE CASE AND GEOTHERMAL POWER SYSTEMS ($1,000) BASE CASE GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM PLANS SYSTEM PLANS Administrative Administrator $ 65 $ 65 Assistant 20 20 Labor Supervisor (1) ° 77 77 Operator (1) 50 (2) 100 Mechanical (2) 100 100 Electrical (2) 100 100 Contractual Maintenance 400 350 Well conditioning 0 75 Outside consulting 0 50 Power plant insurance 100 150 Miscellaneous Equipment/Supplies 100 160 Helicopter Service 0 28 TOTALS $1,012 $1,275 9249/337 30 GEOTHERMAL ALTERNATIVES The Alaska Power Authority recently completed its exploration and drilling program for geothermal resource assessment on Unalaska Island. This program resulted in the discovery of an extremely productive geothermal reservoir near Makushin Volcano, about twelve miles west of the community of Unalaska/Dutch harbor. Flow tests and reservoir analyses were conducted during the summer of 1984 to characterize the nature of the resource and to determine the productivity of the reservoir. These analyses revealed that a single commercial-size well at the site could sustain a flow rate capable of producing from 7 to 13 MW of electric power for over 500 years (Economides and others, 1984). The results of the program were used in this analysis to select appropriate geothermal power systems for analysis. Two geothermal technologies were considered, a total flow system and a binary system. These two geothermal processes were selected for analysis because they both exhibit high efficiency with a two-phase (liquid and vapor) geothermal fluid, such as that dis- covered at Makushin Volcano, and because they both are relatively cost competitive in the small unit sizes needed to meet the power demand at Unalaska. The two geothermal systems were analyzed in various sizes from 2.1 to 13.4 MW for the three growth scenarios. All geothermal unit 9249/337 31 sizes were based on net MW deliverable to the power grid after making deductions necessary to supply station service. It was assumed that all of the geothermal systems could be operated with a single production well. For each growth scenario and system analyzed, it was assumed that the geothermal units would produce ninety percent of the potential net production of the geothermal system (installed capacity times 8,760 hours per year), unless that total was greater than the total annual energy demand of the community, in which case the geothermal units would produce ninety percent of the total annual energy demand. Demand that could not be met by the geothermal units would be met with diesel powered generators. The diesel component of each geothermal system was based on all of the same assumptions given for the base case. Each geothermal power system plan was based on the assumption that construction of the geothermal component would begin in 1986 and geothermal power production would commence in 1990. Detailed construction costs are contained in Appendix D. Based on geotech- nical analysis of geothermal fluids produced at the Makushin site, it appears that the effluent from a geothermal plant could be disposed of in surface drainage without adversely affecting the environment, precluding the need for an injection well. All geothermal system construction costs include $8,732,000 for field development costs and $15,473,000 for road and transmission line construction costs, including a thirty percent contingency factor due to the remote location and local topographic and weather 9249/337 32 conditions. The annual operation and maintenance costs for the geothermal power system plans were assumed to be $1,275,000 as indicated in Table 3. All geothermal power systems were assumed to have a 35-year life. Alternative A--Total Flow Geothermal System Total flow geothermal systems separate two-phase geothermal fluid into steam and water which are piped to a specially designed nozzle where they are recombined in specified proportions to maximize thermal and kinetic energy to drive an impulse turbine. Total flow systems are available in 2.1 net MW units, and this study considers systems containing from one to six units. These alternative systems are summarized in Table 4. Table 4 § SUMMARY OF TOTAL FLOW GEOTHERMAL ALTERNATIVES 1983 NUMBER CONSTRUCTION ALTERNATIVE OF UNITS SIZE (MW) COST($1,000) A(1) 1 2.1 28 ,827 A(2) 2 4.2 32,031 A(3) 3 6.3 35,235 A(4) 4 8.4 38 ,439 A(5) 5 10.5 41,643 A(6) 6 12.6 44,847 9249/337 33 Alternative B--Binary Geothermal System Binary geothermal systems separate two-phase geothermal fluid and use the water to preheat and evaporate a binary fluid such as isobutane or freon. The geothermal steam than superheats the binary vapor which is used to drive a turbine and generator. Binary systems are available in 3.35 net MW units, and this study considers systems containing from one to four units. These alter- native systems are summarized in Table 5. Table 5 SUMMARY OF BINARY GEOTHERMAL ALTERNATIVES 1983 NUMBER CONSTRUCTION ALTERNATIVE OF UNITS SIZE (MW) cost ($1,000) B(1) 1 3.35 36 ,379 B(2) 2 6.70 47 ,135 B(3) 3 10.05 57 ,891 B(4) 4 13.40 68 ,647 HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVES The U.S. Corps of Engineers has proposed two small hydroelectric systems near Unalaska, a 700 kW system on the Shaishnikof River and a 260 kW system on Pyramid Creek. These two proposals were con- sidered individually in this analysis as alternative power plans, while a combined system with both projects constructed and operated 9249/337 34 simultaneously was considered as a third hydroelectric power alter- native. For each growth scenario, it was assumed that the hydro- electric systems could produce ninety percent of their potential annual net production (installed capacity time 8,760 hours per year). Demand that could not be met by the hydroelectric system was again assumed to be met by a diesel component that conformed to all of the assumptions given for the base case. Each hydroelectric power system plan was based on the assumption that the hydroelectric system would be constructed in 1988 and hy- droelectric power production would begin in 1989. Detailed con- struction costs for the hydroelectric systems as provided by the U.S. Corps of Engineers (1984) are contained in Appendix D. The construction cost used in this study for the Shaishnikof pro- ject was taken directly from the Corps estimate ($5,571,000). The construction cost used for the Pyramid Creek project was modified from the Corps estimate to account for transmission line costs. The proposed Shaishnikof and Pyramid projects are situated such that they could utilize a common eight mile transmission line to in- tertie with the city distribution system. The Corps attributed the cost for such a transmission line entirely to the Shaishnikof pro- ject which would be located furthest from the city. In order to formulate a cost for the Pyramid Creek alternative, this study used the Corps' unit cost for the proposed Shaishnikof transmission line to calculate an intertie cost of $946,000 for a five mile 9249/337 35 transmission line that would be needed if only the Pyramid Creek system were constructed. This was added to the Corps' estimated cost of $816,000 for a total of $1,762,000 for the Pyramid Creek project. The cost of constructing both projects assumes that a common transmission line would be used. The Corps projected annual operation and maintenance costs of the proposed Shaishnikof and Pyramid projects to be $30,000 and $20 ,000 respectively. For this analysis, since the hydroelectric compo- nents made up a small proportion of the power system plans, the Corps' operation and maintenance costs were added to the operation and maintenance cost used for the base case to arrive at an annual operation and maintenance cost for each hydroelectric power system plan. Although the Corps assumed that the proposed hydroelectric projects would have a 50-year life, it was assumed here that small hydro- electric systems in rural Alaska communities have a 30-year to 40-year life. This study used a 37-year life for convenience of economic analysis. 9249/337 36 Alternative C--Hydroelectric System This study considers three hydroelectric alternatives based on pro- jects proposed by the U. S. Corps of Engineers on the Shaishnikof River and on Pyramid Creek. These alternatives are summarized in Table 6. Table 6 SUMMARY OF HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVES 1983 CONSTRUCTION ALTERNATIVE WATERSHED SIZE (MW) COST ($1,000) C(1) Shaishnikof 0.70 5,571 C(2) Pyramid 0.26 1,762 C(3) Both “0.96 6 ,387 9249/337 37 SECTION VI RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Cost of Power System Plans The detailed annual costs (in 1983 dollars) of the base case and each alternative power plan, for each growth scenario, is contained in Appendix C. These costs were used to calculate a net present value for each plan using a 3.5 percent discount rate. A summary table containing the net present values for each alternative and each growth scenario can be found at the beginning of Appendix C. The net present values were used to determine optimum geothermal systems for each growth scenario. Obviously, it would not be economical to construct a 13.4 MW geothermal power system under a low growth scenario nor to construct a 2.1 MW system under a high growth scenario. The sizing of these systems for each scenario can be accomplished by evaluating the net present values for each system. For each growth scenario, the three total flow alter- natives and the three binary alternatives with the lowest net present values were selected as the optimum systems for the growth scenario. For the low and moderate growth scenarios, the optimum geothermal systems are the total flow systems consisting of two to four units (4.2 - 8.4 MW) and the binary systems consisting of one to three units (3.35 - 10.05 MW). For the high growth scenarios, 9249/337 38 the optimum geothermal systems are the total flow systems consist- ing of four to six units (8.4 - 10.5 MW) and the binary systems consisting of two to four units (6.70 - 13.40 MW). The net present values of the base case, the optimum geothermal alternatives and the hydroelectric alternatives are depicted in Figures 8 through 10 for each growth scenario. These figures also show the cost-to-cost ratios of the base case to the alternatives. A fold-out key to these figures can be found on page 53. Figure 8 shows that under the low growth scenario, a two-unit (4.2 MW) total flow geothermal system is the most economical source of electric power for the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor community. The net present value of such a system is $72.9 million as opposed to $79.9 million for the base case, representing a 1.10 cost-to-cost ratio. Likewise, under the moderate growth scenario (Figure 9), a 4.2 MW total flow geothermal system is the most economical source of power for the community with a 1.25 cost-to-cost ratio with the base case. Assuming the high growth scenario (Figure 10), the optimum power system plan, with a cost-to-cost ratio of 1.68, is a five-unit (10.5 MW) total flow geothermal system. The construction costs (per MW of net capacity) used for the binary geothermal power systems analyzed in this study were, on an aver- age, eighty-nine percent higher than the construction costs of the total flow geothermal systems analyzed (Appendix D). Even assuming 9249/337 39 EN Xa GF EN AA F E WW vt E WWWW’“Ww E Wy F EMQG £ WINN a = o o So o o So So o oO o o od NOMAONnNONMN HY MNNHAHODAKRON HYMN AO =~ © ® &© fF © WH HS HR wD we 7 SEES SN SEN OT SSS SS SN OS i Ss Qa o CS © wo + ” nu - ttt mt mt et ot ooooooocj¢esao (Sucslitm) (sa¥II0d €86T) ANTIVA LNASS4d LAN SW Fg cod ; SULLLLLLLLLLLLL LLL, & SULLLLLLLLL LLL LLL EL & s LLL 8WLLLLLLLLL LLL LLLLLL ¥ SULLLILLLLL ILLIA | LLL oo oc.hUmcSUmUCOUCWULCDG “=~ CF 8® oe F O&O W a =“ (SucTIItn) (S2¥11I0d €86T) ANIVA LNAHSSUd LAN s| | ZLIB 33 E a & s+ 9249/337 COST OF POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES DOIN 8 PromerrerN E PRRRERRRR OREN @ (x SOK KK KKK WSS xKxXK SCOCC OO. 8 KeRRR RRS NR NONoN roe © [XXX KKK & KOR SERERORVoNoOe SORRELL 4 SOK KN 131.4 110.4 <~X) oJ <j oS Se % SI oS & x nes 3 A OX @ Pr - 7 eMrtstecesonanntateresoeanaratstetetennteretet (SUOSTIItM) (s2¥11I0d ce6t) ANIVA LNASAUd LAN B(2) B(3) B(4) c(1) c(2) C(3) A(4) A(5) A(6) BASE CASE ALTERNATIVES COST/COST RATIOS LSOO AAILVWNYALTIV’LSOO ASWO ASVEa c(2) = c(3) c(1) B(3) B(4) B(2) ALTERNATIVES High growth scenario economic analysis. Figure 10. 42 9249/337 this significantly higher cost, a binary geothermal system is more economical than the base case under each growth scenario. The hydroelectric power systems analyzed do not appear to be significantly more economical than the base case. Because the hydroelectric component of these systems would provide such a small proportion of the total electric demand of the community, they have little effect on the cost of the entire system. 9249/337 43 Sensitivity Analysis A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of a 4.5 percent discount rate and various fuel escalation rates on the economics of the base case and alternative power system plans. For each growth scenario, the total flow alternative, the binary alternative, and the hydroelectric alternative with the lowest net present value were used in the sensitivity analysis. A summary table and detailed annual cost data from the sensitivity analysis are contained in Appendix E. The results of the analysis are illustrated in Figures 11 through 13. EIRREKY Breese steseneeate, Basosicosisg NET PRESENT VALUE (1983 Dollars) (Thousands) BASE CASE A(2) B(1) (3) BASE CASE A(2) B(1) (3) PUEL ESCALATION RATE ZZ] Low MEDIUM Sl HIGH Figure 11. Low growth scenario sensitivity analysis. 9249/337 44 120 3.5% DISCOUNT RATE LS 4.5% DISCOUNT RATE YX Qa QW EAS I< EAN SK ON (spuvenouL) (s2¥tI0d €861T) AN IVA LNASSUd LAN c(3) B(1) BASE CASE A(2) oa FUEL ESCALATION 4A BASE CASE A(2) Ske] HIGH RATE MEDIUM ZZ) Low Moderate growth scenario sensitivity analysis. Figure 12. 4.5% DISCOUNT RATE 3.5% DISCOUNT RATE oooco Ona (spuvenoyL) (S4¥1109d €86T) ANIVA LNASAUd LAN c(3) B(3) BASE CASE Le Li FUEL ESCALATION RATE MEDIUM Tay BASE CASE Li kX] HIGH ZZ) Low High growth scenario sensitivity analysis. Figure 13. 45 9249/337 The medium fuel escalation rate used in the sensitivity analysis is the same rate used in the overall economic analysis. It assumed a four percent decrease in the price of diesel fuel in 1986, no change in that price in 1987 and 1988, and a two percent annual increase in the price of fuel from 1989 to 2005. As with the overall economic analysis, the fuel price was held constant from 2005 to the end of the period of economic analysis in 2025. The low fuel escalation rate represented a four percent annual decline in the price of diesel fuel for three years (until 1988) and a constant fuel price from 1988 to 2025. The high fuel esca- lation rate assumed a constant fuel price until 1988, 3.5 percent annual increase from 1989 to 2005, and a constant price from 2005 to 2025. These fuel escalation rates and the respective fuel prices are summarized in Table 4. Figure 11 indicates that under the low growth scenario and a low fuel escalation rate (where the price of diesel fuel declines to 77.5 cents per gallon and remains at that level through 2025), the base case is more economical than the alternatives considered. With a medium or high fuel escalation rate, however, the total flow geothermal power plan is optimal. A 4.5 percent discount rate causes the cost differences between the base case and alternatives to narrow but does not change the overall conclusions. 9249/337 46 Table 7 FUEL ESCALATION RATES LOW MEDIUM HIGH ESCALATION PRICE ESCALATION PRICE ESCALATION PRICE YEAR PERCENTAGE ($/gal) PERCENTAGE ($/gal) PERCENTAGE ($/gal) 1985 0.876 0.876 0.876 1986 -4% 0.841 -4% 0.841 0% 0.876 1987 -4% 0.807 0% 0.841 0% 0.876 1988 -4% 0.775 0% 0.841 0% 0.876 1989 0% 0.775 +2% 0.858 +3.5% 0.907 1990 0% 0.775 +2% 0.875 +3.5% 0.938 1991 0% 0.775 +2% 0.892 +3.5% 0.971 1992 0% 0.775 +2% 0.910 +3.5% 1.005 1993 0% 0.775 +2% 0.928 +3.5% 1.040 1994 0% 0.775 +2% 0.947 +3.5% 1.077 1995 0% 0.775 +2% 0.966 +3.5% 1.115 1996 0% 0.775 +2% 0.985 +3.5% 1.154 1997 0% 0.775 +2% 1.005 +3.5% 1.194 1998 0% 0.775 +2% 1.025 +3.5% 1.236 1999 0% 0.775 +2% 1.046 +3.5% 1.279 2000 0% 0.775 +2% 1.067 +3.5% 1.324 2001 0% 0.775 +2% 1.088 +3.5% 1.370 2002 0% 0.775 +2% 1.110 +3.5% 1.418 2003 0% 0.775 +2% 1.132 +3.5% 1.468 2004 0% 0.775 +2% 1.154 | +3.5% 1.519 2005 0% 0.775 “2% 1.178 +3.5% 1.572 2006-2025 0% 0.775 0% 1.178 0% 1.572 Under the moderate growth scenario (Figure 12) and a 3.5 percent discount rate, the total flow system is slightly more economical than the base case, assuming a low fuel escalation rate, but con- siderably more economical at the medium and high fuel escalation rates. At a 4.5 percent discount rate and low fuel escalation rate, the total flow system and base case are approximately equal in cost, with the total flow system becoming more economical as the fuel escalation rate increases. At the high growth scenario, the total flow geothermal system is clearly the most economical source of power for the community at both discount rates and at all of the fuel escalation rates con- sidered. 9249/337 47 SECTION VII CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Based on the findings of this reconnaissance level economic analy- sis, a geothermal power system plan, using diesel generators for peaking and backup, appears to be the most economical source of electric power for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor under reasonable and moderate assumptions concerning population growth, electric load growth, and escalation rates in the price of diesel fuel. It is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority initiate a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal power alternative at Unalaska. The feasibility study should concentrate on a number of issues that appear to have a significant effect on the economics of the proposed project. Industrial electric loads, particularly those associated with the seafood processing industry , account for the greatest and most variable proportion of the total electric load in the community. A detailed accounting of the current and projected size of this load should be included in the feasibility study. The industrial load forecast should consider likely trends in regional commercial fish- eries, including both shellfish and bottomfish. The future of shore-based processing and the effect of floating processors on in- dustrial power demand should be carefully analyzed. An industrial 9249/337 48 load duration curve should be formulated indicating what proportion of the industrial load can be met by a geothermal power system. The feasibility study should analyze the potential for broadening the industrial and economic base of the community with proposed projects and activities such as the airport runway extension, the Coast Guard search-and-rescue facility, establishment of a service industry for offshore petroleum development, and the enhancement of tourism. The likelihood that large industrial customers will be connected to the city's electric distribution system and willing to purchase power produced from a geothermal power system should be analyzed in the feasibility study. The cost of power under such a system should be compared with the cost for industry to produce power with individual diesel generators. The feasibility study should analyze the effect of excess generating capacity in industry-owned genera- tors with industry purchasing power from the city system. It should also evaluate the potential for wheeling power from those generators to the city system during times of peak demand. The feasibility study should analyze the effect of a geothermal power system plan on the future benefits that could be derived from the use of waste heat from diesel generators at the city utility. It should also analyze the potential for using the effluent from a 9249/337 49 geothermal power plant for direct uses such as heating greenhouses or fish-hatchery rearing ponds. The feasibility study should analyze appropriate geothermal energy conversion processes and technologies and determine the one most suitable to the conditions at Unalaska, considering geothermal reservoir and fluid characteristics, cost, and reliability. It should evaluate streamflow data and water quality standards to de- termine appropriate geothermal effluent disposal practices. Considering the rugged terrain and the three-mile wide, deep-water bay between the community and the geothermal site, the feasibility study should carefully analyze various road and intertie routes to determine the most suitable routes and the most appropriate concep- tual design for a transmission line. This analysis should include economic consideration of the option of using highly automated power plant systems and helicopter access to the power plant site, precluding the need for road access. Since Unalaska Island is in an active seismic region and the geothermal site is in close proximity to an active volcano, the feasibility study should evaluate the potential for natural hazards and offer options for minimizing and mitigating their effect on the development of a geothermal power system. Additional geotechnical and geologic engineering investigations should be conducted to determine foundation conditions at the development site and con- 9249/337 50 struction material availability. The feasibility study should also include environmental evaluation to determine potential adverse effects of development on the natu- ral environment, including fish and wildlife habitat, and offer op- tions for minimizing and mitigating those effects. 9249/337 51 REFERENCES Acres American, Inc., 1984. Reconnaissance study of energy requirements and alternatives, appendix: Unalaska, draft report for the Alaska Power Authority, contract CC-08-2270. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries, 1985. Westward region shellfish report to the Alaska Board of Fisheries. Alaska Department of Labor, Administrative Services Division, Research and Analysis Section, 1982-1983. Alaska population overview, 1982 - 1983. Dames and Moore, 1982. Aleutian regional airport, project documentation, report for the City of Unalaska. Economides, M. J., Morris, C. W., and Campbell, D.A., 1984. Evaluation of the Makushin geothermal reservoir, Unalaska Island, Proceedings of the Tenth Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, SGP-TR-84, Stanford University, Stanford, Ca., in press. Republic Geothermal, Inc., 1984. The Unalaska geothermal exploration project: electrical power generation analysis, final report for the Alaska Power Authority, contract CC-08-2334. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Alaska District, 1984. Unalaska, Alaska final small hydropower interim feasibility report and environmental impact statement. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1831 - 1980. Census of population, vol. 1, characteristics of population. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, 1976 - 1984. Fisheries of the Unites States. 9249/337 52 KEY TO FIGURES BASE CASE - Diesel powered generators ALTERNATIVE A - Total flow geothermal systems A (1) 2.1 MW h (3) 6.3 A (4) 8.4 MW A (5) 10.5 MW A (6) 12.6 MW ALTERNATIVE B - Binary geothermal systems B (1) 3.35 MW B (2) 6.70 MW B (3) 10.05 MW B (4) 13.40 MW ALTERNATIVE C - Hydroelectric Systems C (1) .70 MW C (2) 26 MW C (3) -96 MW FUEL ESCALATION RATES 1986 1987 Low -4% -4% Medium -4% 4 High 0% % 9249/372 5 oO (1 unit) (2 units) (3 units) (4 units) Shaishnikof River Pyramid Creek Both 1988 1989-2005 -4% 0% 0% +2% 0% +3.5% APPENDIX A Population and Electric Load Forecasts UJNALASKA/DUTCH H52BOR POPULATION FORECAST LOW GROWTH SCENARIO MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO YEAR RESIDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL RESIDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL RESIDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL 900 600 1,500 900 600 1,500 900 600 1,500 918 612 1,530 952 608 1,560 1,032 633 1,665 936 624 1,561 1,006 617 1,622 1,183 665 1,848 955 637 1,592 1,063 624 1-687 1,354 697 2,051 9746 649 1,624 1,123 632 1,755 1,548 729 2-277 994 662 31,656 2,186 639 1,825 1,769 758 2,528 1,014 676 1,689 1,253 645 1,898 2,020 786 2,806 1,034 689 1,723 1,323 651 1,974 2,305 810 3,114 703 1,75? 1,396 657 2,053 2,627 830 3,457 717 1.793 1,473 662 2,135 2,993 844 3,837 731 1,828 1,554 666 2.220 3,407 852 4-259 746 2,865 1.640 670 2.309 3,782 946 4,728 761 1,902 1,729 672 2,402 4,198 1,050 5,248 776 1,949 1,823 674 2,498 4.660 1,165 5,825 792 1,979 1,922 675 2,598 5,173 1,293 6,466 808 2-019 2,026 675 2,701 5.742 1,435 7.177 824 2,039 2,335 674 2,809 6,373 1,593 7,966 840 2,100 2,250 672 2,922 7,074 1,769 8,843 857 2,14? 2,379 669 3,039 7,852 1,963 9,815 874 2,185 2,497 664 3.160 8.716 2.179 10,895 892 21229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3.287 9.675 2.419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 892 2,229 2.629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 ? 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 at 892 2,229 2-629 657 3.287 9,675 2,419 12,093 2031 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 2012 892 2,229 2.629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 2013 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,09? 2014 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2-419 12,093 2035 892 2.229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12-093 SOLA 892 2-229 2.629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 1? 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3.287 9.675 2,419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9.675 2,419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 392 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2.419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 892 2.2729 2,629 637 3,287 9,675 2.419 12,093 892 2,229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 vs POPULATION YEAR RESIDENT TRANSIENT 909 a8 926 935 974 994 600 612 624 637 649 662 676 689 703 WW? 731 746 761 776 792 808 824 840 857 874 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 892 e92 TOTAL 1,500 1,530 1,561 1,592 1,624 1,656 1,689 1,723 1,757 1,793 1,828 1,865 1,902 1,940 1,979 2,019 2,059 2,100 2,142 2,185 24229 2,229 2,229 2,229 2,229 2,229 2,229 2.229 2,229 2,229 2,229 2,229 2,229 2,229 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RESIDENTIAL LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH SCENARTO AVERLGE USE R CUSTOMER {kWh /meo) wu ut gt Pow uw UF UD wow uur ut un ut ut ut gg ot SceocCoOcCoOoOoCoFoOOoOCSO ou uur 550 vin ur ue ur wow oo ot wow ur SINGLE-FAMILY DWELLINGS NUMBER OF HOUSES 180 184 187 i191 195 199 203 207 211 215 219 224 228 233 238 242 247 252 257 262 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 267 26? 267 26? 1,329 1,417 1,508 1,603 1,635 1,667 1,701 1,735 1,769 1,805 1,841 1,878 1,915 1,954 1,993 2.032 2,073 2.115 2,157 2,200 2,244 2,244 24244 2.244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2.244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 24244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2.244 2,244 2.244 2,244 MULTI-FAMILY DWELLINGS TOTALS PEAK NUMBER ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK DEMAND OF USE DEMAND USE DEMAND (kw) UNITS (MWh/yr) (kw) (Mwh/yr ) (kw) 759 320 1,181 674 2,510 1,433 809 326 1,260 719 2,677 1,528 861 333 1,341 765 2,849 1,626 915 340 1,425 813 3,027 1.728 933 346 1,453 829 3,088 1,762 952 353 1,482 846 3,149 1,798 971 360 1,512 863 3,212 1,834 990 368 1,542 880 34277 1,870 1,010 375 1,573 898 3,342 1,908 1,030 382 1,604 916 3,409 1,946 1,051 390 1,636 934 3,477 1,985 1,072 398 1,669 953 3,547 2,024 1,093 406 1,702 972 3,618 2,065 1,115 414 1,737 991 3,690 2,106 1,137 422 1,771 1,011 3,764 2,148 1,160 431 1,807 1,031 3,839 2.191 1,183 439 1,843 1,052 3,916 2,235 1,207 448 1,880 1,073 3,994 2,280 1,231 457 1,917 1,094 4,074 2,325 1,256 466 1,956 1,116 4,156 2,372 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 44239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4.239 2.419 1,28) 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,439 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 2,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,28) 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 SS YEA x 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 399) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20:7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 RESIDENT TRéNSLENT 900 952 2,006 1,063 1,123 1,186 1,253 1,323 1,396 1,473 1,554 1,640 1,729 1,823 1,922 2,026 2,135 2,250 2,370 2,497 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2.629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2.629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2.629 2,629 600 608 617 624 632 639 645 651 657 662 666 670 672 674 675 675 674 672 669 664 657 657 657 657 657 637 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 UNSLASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RESIDENTIAL LOAD FORECAST ASTERLGE USE PER CUSTOMER TOTAL = (kWh/mo) 484 506 528 350 350 350 550 550 550 550 550 550 $50 550 550 550 550 350 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO NUMBER OF HOUSES 180 190 201 213 225 237 251 265 279 295 311 328 346 365 384 405 427 450 474 499 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 526 $26 526 526 526 526 526 526 FAMILY DWELLINGS ENERGY USE (MWh/yr ) 1,329 1,465 1,612 1.770 1,865 1,965 2,070 2.180 2,296 2.417 2,543 2.676 2,815 2,961 3,114 3,275 3,443 3,619 3,803 3,996 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4.198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 4,198 PEAK DEMAND (kW) 759 836 920 1,010 1,065 1,122 1,182 1,244 1,310 1,379 1,452 1,528 1,607 1,690 1,778 1,869 1,965 2,065 2.171 2.281 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2.396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 2,396 MULTI-FAMILY DWELLINGS NUMBER OF UNITS 320 330 340 350 360 371 382 393 405 417 429 442 45s 468 481 495 509 524 539 554 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 370 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 ENERGY PE USE DEMAND (MWh/yr ) (kw) 1,161 674 1.269 724 1,361 7 1,456 831 1,496 854 1,537 877 1,579 901 1,622 926 1,665 951 1,710 976 1,756 1,002 1,803 1,029 1,851 1,056 1,900 1,084 1,950 1,113 2,001 1,142 2,054 1,172 2.107 1,203 2,162 1,234 2.217 1,266 2,274 1,298 2.274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2.274 1,298 2.274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2.274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2.274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2.274 1,298 2,274 1,298 2,274 1,298 TOTALS CNERGY USE (Mwh/yr ) 2,510 2.734 2,973 3,227 3,362 3,503 3,649 3,802 3.961 4,127 4,299 4.479 4,666 4,861 5,065 5,276 3,496 3,726 5,965 6,214 6.473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6.473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6,473 6.473 6,473 PEAK DEMAND (kW) 1,433 1-561 1,697 1,842 1,919 1,999 2,083 2.170 2,262 2,356 2,454 2,557 2,663 2,775 2,891 3,011 3,137 3,268 3,404 3,547 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3.694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 9g 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199} 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2009 2001 2003 5 6 7 a6 Na os 2008 2009 2919 2012 2023 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025 POPULATION ENT 90¢ 1,032 1,183 1,354 1,248 1,769 2,020 2,305 2,62? 2,993 3,407 3,782 4,198 4,660 3,173 5,742 6,373 7,074 TRANSIENT 690 633 665 697 729 758 786 810 830 844 852 946 1,050 1,165 1,293 1,435 1,593 1,769 1,963 2,179 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2.419 2,419 2.419 2,419 2.419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2,419 2.419 2,419 TOTAL 1,500 1,665 1,848 2,051 2,277 2,528 2.806 3,114 3,457 3,837 4,259 4,728 5,248 5,825 6,466 7.177 7,966 8,843 9,815 10,895 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 12,093 g VER. us CUSTIIMER (kWh /mo) 484 306 528 350 350 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 uw ww oo ui ut out wut ui utr oun ein uh uu) oO yudu ow ow Bul UD yi Uh UI UT uh wht oy ur OF uF uv or or y SoOoSCTOCOSCOORaSOOOoOoCSGOSGOSOoOoCO we HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO SINGLE-FAMILY DWELLINGS NUMBER OF HOUSES. 180 206 237 271 310 354 404 461 525 599 681 756 840 932 1,035 1,148 1,275 1,415 1,570 1.743 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 3,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 ENERGY USE (Muh/yr ) 1,329 1,586 1,886 2-238 2,546 2,895 3,289 3,734 4,236 4,802 5,441 6,039 6,703 7,441 8,259 9,168 10,176 11,296 12,538 13,918 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 15,448 PEAK DEMAND (kW) 759 905 1,077 1.277 1,453 1,653 1,877 2.131 2,418 2,741 3,105 3,447 3,826 4,247 4,714 5,233 5,808 6,447 7.157 7,944 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 8,818 1ASKA/OUTCH HARBOR RESIDENTIAL LOAD FORECAST MULTI-FAMILY DWELLINGS NUMBER or UNITS 320 349 379 413 449 489 S531 $77 627 680 738 819 910 1,010 1,121 1,244 1,381 1,533 1,701 1,888 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2,096 2.096 2,096 ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND (MWh/yr ) (kw) 1,181 674 1,338 764 1,513 864 1.707 974 1,847 1,054 1,999 1,141 2,162 1,234 2,338 1,334 2,527 1,442 2.729 1,558 2,947 1,682 3.271 1,867 3,631 2,073 4,030 2,300 4,474 2,554 4,966 2,834 5,512 3/146 6.119 3,492 6,792 3,876 74539 4,303 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4.776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4.776 8,368 4.776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 8,368 4,776 TOTALS ENERGY USE (MWh/yr ) 2,510 2,924 3,399 3,944 4,394 4,894 5,452 6,072 6,763 7,532 8,388 9,310 10,335 11,471 12,733 14,134 15,689 17,414 19,330 21,456 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23.816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 23,816 PEAK DEMAND (kW) 1,433 1,669 1,940 2,251 2,508 2.794 3,112 3,466 3,860 4,299 4,788 5,314 5,899 6,548 7,268 8,067 8,955 9,940 11,033 12,247 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 13,594 ZS UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR COMMERCIAL LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH SCENARIO NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS, 29 30 30 3L 31 32 33 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 38 39 40 4l 4. 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 ENERGY USE (MVIh/yr) 578 689 804 923 942 961 980 999 1,019 1,040 1,061 1,082 1,103 1,125 1/148 1/171 1,194 1,218 1,243 1,267 1,293 1,293 1,293 2,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 1/293 1,293 1/293 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,292 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 PEAK DEMAND (kW) 264 315 36? 422 430 439 447 456 465 475 484 494 504 514 524 535 545 556 567 579 590 590 590 590 590 390 590 390 590 390 5990 590 590 590 599 590 390 390 590 5390 590 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS 29 30 31 33 34 35 37 38 40 41 43 4s 46 48 50 52 54 36 59 61 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 ENERGY USE (MWh/yr ) 578 703 836 979 1,018 1,058 1,101 1,145 1,191 1,238 1,288 1,339 1,393 1,449 1,507- 1,567 1,629 1,695 1,762 1,833 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 PEAK DEMAND (kW) 264 321 382 447 465 483 503 523 544 565 588 612 636 661 688 715 744 774 805 837 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 101 113 125 139 154 171 190 211 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 234 264 343 435 543 603 669 743 825 916 1,016 1,128 1,252 1,390 1,543 1,712 1,901 2,110 2,342 2,599 2,885 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 3,203 8S UNSLASKA/DUTCH HARBOR CITY SERVICES LOAD FORECAST USE YEAR (Mvlin/yr ) 1,439 1,468 1,497 1,527 1,558 1,589 1,621 1,653 1,686 1,720 1,754 1,789 1,825 1,861 1,899 1,937 1-975 2,015 2,055 2,096 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2-138 2-138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2.138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 2,138 MODERATE GROWTH DEMAND (kw) 469 488 508 528 549 371 594 618 642 668 695 723 731 781 813 845 879 914 951 989 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 ° 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 HIGH GROWTH ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND (Mwh/yr ) (kW) 1,439 469 1,597 s2l 1,773 578 1,968 642 2,185 712 2.425 791 2,692 878 2,988 974 3,316 1,082 3,681 1,201 4,086 1,333 4,535 1,479 5,034 1,642 5,588 1,823 6,203 2,023 6,885 2.246 7,642 2,493 8,483 2,767 9,416 3,071 10,452 3,409 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3.784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3.784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3.784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 11,602 3,784 6S UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR INDUSTRIAL LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND YEAR (MWh/yr ) (kW) 9,135 4/171 10,318 4,712 11,501 5,252 12,685 5,792 13,868 6,332 15,051 6,873 16,234 7,413 17,417 7,953 18,602 8,493 19,784 9,034 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20.967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20.967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20.967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20.967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 20,967 9,574 USE (Mwh/yr ) 9,135 11,501 13,868 16,234 18,601 20,967 22,150 23,333 24.517 25,700 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26-883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26,883 26.683 26,2883 DEMAND (kW) 4,171 3,252 6,332 7,413 8,493 9,574 10,114 10,655 11,195 11,735 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12.275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12-275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 12,275 USE (MWh/yr) 9,135 11,669 14,789 17,742 20-611 23,480 25,333 27,018 28,872 30,893 32,746 33,583 36,096 37,938 39,781 41,623 43,466 45,308 46,983 48,658 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 50,333 PEAK DEMAND (kW) 4,171 5,328 6,753 8,101 9,411 10,721 11,568 12,337 13,183 14,106 14,953 15,335 16,482 17,323 18,165 19,006 19,847 20,689 21,453 22,218 22,983 22,983 22,983 22.983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 22,983 09 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR TOTAL ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH SCENARIO RESIDENTIAL COMMERCTAL CITY SERVICES INDUSTRIAL TOTALS VERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY COINCIDENT USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE PEAK YEtR 9 (MUh/yr) (kw) (MWh/yr ) (kW) (MWh/yr) (kw) (MWh/yr ) (kw) (MWh/yr) (kw) 1985 2,510 1,433 578 264 1,439 469 9,135 4,171 13,663 5,199 1986 2.677 1,528 689 315 1,468 479 10,318 4,712 15,152 5,766 1937 2,849 1,626 804 367 1,497 488 11,501 5,252 16,652 6,336 198R 3,027 1,728 923 422 1,527 498 12,685 5.792 18,162 6,911 gga 3,088 1,762 942 430 1,558 508 13,868 6,332 19,455 72403 3999 7149 1,798 961 439 1,589 518 15,051 6,873 20,750 7,896 1993 3,222 1,834 980 447 1,621 529 16,234 7,413 22,047 8,389 1992 3.277 1,870 999 436 1,653 $39 17,417 7,953 23,346 8,884 1992 3,342 1,908 1,019 465 1,686 550 18,601 8,493 24,648 9,379 1994 3,499 1,946 1,040 475 1,720 561 19,784 9,034 25,952 9,875 1995 3,477 1,985 1,061 484 1,754 572 20,967 9,574 27.259 10,372 1996 3.347 2,024 1,082 494 1,789 584 20,967 9,574 27,385 10,420 1997 3,618 2,065 1,103 504 1,825 595 20,967 9,574 27,513 10,469 1998 3,690 2,106 1.125 514 1,861 607 20,967 9,574 27,644 10,519 i999 3,764 2,148 1,148 524 1,899 619 20,967 9,574 27,778 10-570 20co0 3,839 2-391 1.171 535 1,937 632 20,967 9,574 27,914 10,622 2003 3,916 2,235 1,194 $45 1,975 644 20,967 9,574 28,053 10,675 2002 3.994 2.280 1,218 556 2,015 657 20,967 9.574 28,194 10.728 2003 4,074 2,325 1,243 567 2,055 670 20,967 9,574 28,339" 10,783 2004 4,156 2,372 1,267 579 2,096 684 20,967 9,574 28,486 10,840 2095 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 2006 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 200? 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 2008 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28.637 10,897 2009 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 2030 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20-967 9,574 28-637 10,897 201) 4,239 2,419 1,293 $99 2,138 697 20,967 9.574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9.574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28-637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 $90 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 +239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,229 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28.637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 599 2,138 697 20,96? 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,229 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,292 5a¢ 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 T9 RESIDENTIAL 3 PEAK USE DEMAND YERR iMun/yr) (kW) 1,433 1,561 1,697 1,842 1,919 1.999 2,083 2.170 2,261 2,356 2,454 2,557 2,663 2.775 2,891 3,011 3,137 3,268 3,404 3,547 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 3,694 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR TOTAL ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO COMMERCIAL ENERGY USE (Mwh/yr ) 578 703 836 979 1,018 1,058 1,101 1,145 1,191 1,238 1,288 1,339 1,393 1,449 1,507 1,567 1,629 1,695 1,762 1,833 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 DEMAND (kW) 264 321 382 44? 465 483 503 523 544 565 588 612 636 661 688 715 744 774 805 837 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 870 CITY SERVICES ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND (Mulh/yr ) (kw) 1,439 469 1,497 488 1,556 508 1,619 528 1,683 549 1,751 571 1,821 594 1,894 618 1,969 642 2,048 668 2,130 695 2,215 723 2,304 71 2,396 781 2,492 813 2,592 845 2,695 879 2,803 914 2,915 951 3,032 989 3,153 1,028 3.153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3.153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3-153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 3,153 1,028 INDUSTRIAL ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND (MWh/yr ) (kw) 9,135 4,171 11,501 5,252 13,868 6.332 16,234 7,413 18,601 8,493 20,967 9,574 22,150 10,114 23,333 10,655 24-517 11,195 25-700 11,735 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12-275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12.275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 26,883 12,275 ENERGY COINCIDENT USE (mwh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 27.279 28,721 30,174 31,638 33,113 34,600 34,917 35,246 35,589 35,946 36-317 36,704 37,106 37,525 37,961 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 PEAK (kW) 5,199 6,254 7319 8,393 9,385 10,380 10,929 11,482 12,039 12,600 13,166 13,286 13,412 13,542 13,678 13,819 13,967 14,120 14,279 14,445 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 14,618 29 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR TOTAL ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL CITY SERVICES INDUSTRIAL NERGY . PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY COINCIDENT USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE PEAK YAR {Mlin/yr) (kW) (MWh/yr ) (kW) (MWh/yr) (kw) (MWh/yr) (kW) (MWh/yr ) (kw) 1985 2,510 1,433 578 264 1,439 469 9,135 4,171 13,663 5,199 1986 2,924 1,669 750 343 1,597 521 11,669 5,328 16,941 6.446 298? 3,399 1,940 952 435 1,773 578 14,789 6,753 20-913 7,958 9 3,944 2.251 1,190 543 1,968 642 17,742 8,101 24,844 9,454 1989 4,394 2,508 1,321 603 2,185 712 20,611 9,411 28,510 10,848 1990 4,894 2.794 1,466 669 2.425 791 23,480 10,721 32,265 12,277 1992 3,452 3,112 1,627 743 2,692 878 25,333 11,568 35,104 13,358 1992 6,072 3,466 1,806 825 2,988 974 27,018 12,337 37,884 14,416 1993 6,763 3,860 2,005 916 3,316 1,082 28,872 13,183 40,956 15,584 1994 7,532 4,299 2,225 1,016 3,681 1,201 30,893 14,106 44,331 16,869 1995 8,388 4,788 2,470 1,128 4,086 1,333 32,746 14,953 47,690 18,147 1996 9,310 5,314 2,742 1,252 4,535 1,479 33,583 15,335 “50,171 19,091 1997 10,335 5,899 3,044 1,390 5,034 1,642 36,096 16,482 54,508 20,741 1998 11,471 6,548 3,378 1,543 5,588 1,823 37,938 17,323 58,376 22,213 1999 12,733 7,268 3,750 1,712 6,203 2,023 39,781 18,165 62,467 23,770 2000 14,134 8,067 4.163 1,901 6,885 2,246 41,623 19,006 66,804 25,420 2001 15,689 8,955 4,620 2,110 7,642 2,493 43,466 19,847 71,417 27,176 2002 17,414 9,940 5,129 2.342 8.483 2.767 45,308 20,689 76,334 29,046 2003 19,330 11,033 5,693 2,599 9,416 3,071 46,983 21,453 81,422 30,982 2004 21,456 12,247 6.319 2,885 10,452 3,409 48,658 22,218 86,885 33,061 2005 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3-784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2006 23,816 23,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2007 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2908 23.816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2009 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2010 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2021 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2012 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2013 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2014 23,816 13,594 7,014 3.203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2015 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3.784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2016 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92.765 35-299 201? 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3-784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2018 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,293 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2019 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11-602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2020 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3.784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2021 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2022 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2023 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 2024 23,816 13,594 7,014 3,203 11,602 3.784 50,333 22,983 92.765 35,299 2025 23,8°6 13,594 7,014 3,203 211,602 3,784 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 eg TABLE 6 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR BOTTOMFISH PROCESSING ENERGY ESTIMATES TO BE USED WITH ACRES’ BEST-GUESS FORECAST DAMES & MOORE LOW BOTTOMFISH PORTION OF AREA CATCH PROCESSED IN UNALASKA/OUTCH HARBOR CATCH ESTIMATE 40 PERCENT 30 PERCENT 25 PERCENT YEAR _(10° 1b) _— ENERGY (MWh) POWER (MW) ENERGY (MWh) POWER (MW) ENERGY (MWh) POWER (Mi) 1980 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1981 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 1982 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1983 .- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1984 ee) 268 0 201 0 168 0 1985 55 1,474 1 1,106 0 921 0 1986 90 2,412 1 1,809 1 1,508 1 1987 120 3,216 1 2,412 1 2,010 1 1988 150 4,020 2 3,015 1 2,513 1 1989 190 5,092 2 3,819 2 3,183 1 1990 220 5,896 3 4,422 2 3,685 2 1991 260 6,968 3 5,226 2 4,355 2 1992 310 _ 8,308 4 6,231 3 5,193 2 1993 350 9,380 4 7,035 3 5,863 3 1994 400 10,720 5 8,040 4 6,700 3 1995 440 11,792 5 8,844 4 7,370 3 1996 550 14,740 7 11,055 5 9,213 4 1997 660 17,688 8 13,266 6 11,055 5 1998 770 20,636 9 15,477 7 12,898 6 1999 880 23,584 ll 17,688 8 14,740 7 2000 990 26,532 12 19,899 9 16,583 7 2001 1,100 29,480 13 22,110 10 18,425 8 2002 1,200 32,160 14 24,120 ll 20, 100 9 2003 1,300 34,840 16 26,130 12 21,775 10 2004 1,400 37,520 17 28,140 13 23,450 ret (SOURCE: Acres American, Inc., 1984) v9 APPENDIX B Energy Production of Power System Plans UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTTON LOW GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE. CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT DIESCL FIRM DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (mub/yr) (MW) (Mw) (MW) (MWh/yr) (MW) (Mw) (Mw) 13,663 5.20 3.9 2.5 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,152 3.77 3.9 2.5 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,652 6.34 9.5 6.7 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 18,162 6.91 12.0 9.2 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 19,455 7.40 12.0 9.2 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.750 7.90 12.0 9.2 20,750 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,047 8.39 12.0 9.2 22,047 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,346 8.88 12.0 9.2 23,346 0.00 0.00 0.00 24,648 9.38 14.5 11.7 24,648 2.50 0.00 2.50 25,952 9.88 14.5 11.7 25,952 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,259 10.37 14.5 11.7 27,259 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.385 10.42 14.5 11.7 27,385 0.00 0.30 0.30 27,513 10.47 14.5 11.7 27-513 0.00 0.60 0.60 27,644 10.52 14.5 11.7 27,644 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,778 10.57 14.5 11.7 27,778 cite 0.00 0.00 27,914 10.62 14.5 11.7 27,914 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,053 10.67 14.5 11.7 28,053 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,194 10.73 14.5 11.7 28,194 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,339 10.78 14.5 11.7 28,339 0.00 0.00 0.00 28, 486 10.84 14.5 12.7 28,486 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 5.60 5.60 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28.637 0.00 2.50 2.50 28,627 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 78.637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28-637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 2.50 2.50 28.637 20.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0-00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0-00 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 S9 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITICN/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL. FIRM GDOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Mulh/yr) (MW) (mw) (mw) (Mw) (Mwh/yr ) (Mwh/yr ) (Mw) (mw) (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 ° 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 5.77 0 3.9 2.5 0 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 0 9.5 6.7 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 ° 12.0 9.2 oO 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 20.750 7.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 4,193 0.00 0.00 0.00 raat 22,047 8.39 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 5,491 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 6,790 0.00 0.00 0.00 3993 24,648 9.38 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 8,092 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 9,396 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,259 10.37 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 10,702 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 10,828 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997. 27,513 10.47 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 10,957 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27,644 10.52 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,088 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27.778 10.57 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,221 0.00 0.00 0.00 200 27,914 10.62 2.1 12.0 11.3 ' 16,556 11,357 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,496 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,638 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,783 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 28,486 10.84 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,930 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 2.21 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28,637 10.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0-00 5.60 5.60 2008 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16/556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16-556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2034 28,637 10.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 7026 28,637 10.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28.637 10.90 2.2 12.0 12.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 2-1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 202: 28,637 10.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.60 0.60 7022 28.637 10.90 2.2 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 28.637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 28.637 10.90 2.3 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 2.3 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 99 YEAR 1985 1986 198? 1988 1939 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 poco UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL. CAPACITY USE (mwh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 20,750 22,047 23,346 24,648 25,952 27,259 77.385 27-513 27,644 27,778 27,914 28,053 28,194 28,339 78,486 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 8.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 23,637 28.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 PEAK (Mw) 5.20 5.77 6.34 6.91 7.40 7.90 8.39 8.88 9.38 9.88 10.37 10.42 10.47 10.52 10.57 10.62 10.67 10.73 10.78 10.84 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 Noocooco DaeabaAba Seda SBhRedhHxa Aaa oe DPRE EDR Oa Sa Da DSda DS NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN FIRM GEOTHERMAL (Mw) wee WWWUUVDOANN bBaeannvun ee ww ao 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 CAPACITY PRODUCTION (muh/yr) ecoooo 18,675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 24,646 24,762 24,880 23,000 25,122 25,247 25,375 25,505 25,638 25,773 25,773 25-773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MwWh/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2,595 2-726 2.738 2,751 2.764 2,778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2.849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 + 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 cooooo eoooooo°o eoeooscocs eooooeoooooCco uwnoowvwsoonancoomavooo0o0ngo0go goose Sooodo000000909999999959590990990 mavoooooocoeo SCEOSSSOSSSSVSSSSOSCSCOSONSSSOSSOSCSOSOSSSSSSSOSSSS 2° ° ao SSSSSSSSSSSSOSOSSSOSSSSSSSSSS ° eowoeo ons ecoceoeo oo oOo OO COCO OOO OOOO OKO OO OCS ecocoooeo op OOO COO COC ONUOOOOOOCOOCOCSD 2° ooo ADDITION/ REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (MW) cOoOSCOCDD COC ONUOCOC OOOO OOOO OC OO OC ONY OO OSnvVOooooooOoUMmOOWOoDOADOOAWOSOSODODOUADS Seoscssooeoosoooooonaescooaosoosoosoaooooocooose oo oo oo 0.60 L9 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)---GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FIOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ "RGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL, DIESEL. FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDUI.E YEAR (Muh/yr) (MW) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) (Mwh/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (mw) (mw) (mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 ° 13,663 0-00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 5.77 0 3-9 2.5 0 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 193? 16,652 6.34 oO. 9.5 6.7 0 16,652 5-60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 O 12.0 9.2 o 18,162 2.50 0.00 2-50 21989 19,455 7.40 ° 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20,750 7.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 199% 22,047 8.39 6.3 12.0 15.5 19,842 2,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 6.3 12.0 15.5 21,012 2,335 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 6.3 12.0 15.5 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 6.3 12.0 15.5 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,239 10.37 6.3 12.0 . 15.5 24,533 2.726 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 6.3 12.0 ~ 15.5 24,646 2.738 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 6.3 12.0 15.5 24,762 2,751 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27.644 10.52 6.3 12.0 15.5 24,880 2,764 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,000 2,778 0.00 0.00 0.00 2009 27,914 10.62 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,122 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,505 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 28,486 10.84 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2906 28,637 30.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 200? 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2.864 0.00 5-60 5.60 2908 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2.864 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,627 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28.637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2914 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2026 28.637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15-5 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 78,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 201 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 207? 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 JNALASKA/DUTCH H&RBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNOTIVE 4(4)--GZOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) DICSEL CAPACITY CAPACITY 40! TONS ADDITION REPLACEMENT REDLACEMENT ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMA DIESEL FIRM GEOTHCRMAL USE PEAK cap CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YES (Min /yr) (mu) (MW) (MW) (MWn/yr ) (Mvin/yr) (Mw) (MW) (MW) 2985 13,663 5.20 0 3-9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 3.77 ° 3.9 2-5 °o 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 0 9.5 6.7 oO 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18.162 6.91 ° 12.0 9.2 tv) 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20,750 7.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 22,047 8.39 8.4 12.0 17.6 19,842 2.205 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 8.4 12.0 17.6 21,012 2,335 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 8.4 12.0 17.6 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 8.4 12.0 17.6 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,259 10.37 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,533 2,726 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,646 2,738 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,762 2,751 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27,644 10.52 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,000 2,778 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 27,914 10.62 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,122 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,505 | 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 28,486 10.84 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2.864 0.00 2.50 2-50 2009 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 C.00 0.00 2014 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 202) 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 6.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) . DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ DENT GEOTHERMAL Dr . FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT PEAK CAPACITY CAPACTTY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE a) (mw) 1a) (Mu) (Mith/yr) (Myr) (mu) (mw) (mw) 20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 Oo 3.9 2-5 Oo 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 34 Ce 9.5 6.7 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 91 0 12.0 9.2 0 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 +40 0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 -90 10.5 12.0 19.7 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.39 10.5 12.0 19.7 19,842 2,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.88 10.5 12.0 19.7 21,012 2,335 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.38 10.5 12.0 19.7 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.88 10.5 12.0 19.7 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.37 10.5 12.0 19.7 24,533 2,726 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.42 10.5 12.0 19.7 24,646 2.738 0.00 0.30 0.30 10.47 10.5 12.0 19.7 24,762 2,751 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.52 10.5 12.0 19.7 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.57 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,000, 2,778 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.62 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,122 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.67 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.73 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.78 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,505 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.84 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.9 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 23,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 30.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.3 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.9 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 10.90 10.5 12.6 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCEN4SRIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FI.OW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) ADDITION/ ENL?GY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL OTESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (in/yr) (MW) (MW) (MW) (mw) (MWh/yr) (Mwh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2-5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,152 3-77 9 3.9 2-5 oO 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,652 6.34 0 9.5 6.7 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 18,162 6-91 9 12.0 9.2 0 18-162 2.50 0.00 2-50 7.40 9 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 7.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,04? 8.39 12.6 12.0 21.8 19,842 2,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,346 8.88 12.6 12.0 21.8 21,012 2,335 0-00 0.00 0.00 24,648 9.38 12-6 12.0 21.8 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 25,952 9.88 12.6 12.0 21.8 23,357 2.595 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,259 10.37 12.6 12.0 21.8 24,533 2,726 0.00 0.00 0.00 27, 385 10.42 12.6 12.0 21.8 24,646 2.738 0.00 0.30 0.30 27,513 10.47 12.6 12-0 21.8 24,762 2,751 0.00 0.60 0.60 27,644 10.52 12.6 12.0 21.8 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,778 10.57 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,001 2.778 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.914 10.62 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,12) 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,053 10.67 ° 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,194 10.73 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,339 10.78 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,505 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,486 10.84 12-6 12.0 21.8 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25-773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 8,637 10.90 12.6 12.9 21.8 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 28 637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 12-6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0-00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 22.6 12.9 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.0 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12-6 12.9 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 12.6 12.9 21-8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 12.6 21.8 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 TZ YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200i 2002 2003 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2013 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE BCL )--GLOTHERMAL, Li ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL capacity (MW) USE (Muh /yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 20,750 22,047 23,346 24,648 25,952 27,259 27,385 27,513 27,644 27,778 27,914 28,053 28,194 28,339 28,486 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 PEAK (MW) 5.20 5.77 6.34 6.91 7.40 7.90 8.39 8.88 9.38 9.88 10.37 10.42 10.47 10.52 10.57 10.62 10.67 10.73 10.78 10.84 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 DIESEL CAPACITY (MW) NNNNNNOWY coooooree oo00 NNNNNN oooooooeo RRR PREP RP RP ER Re Re Ree NNNNN w N 1 GROWTH SCENARIO BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) FIRM CAPACITY (Mw) . NN O©WOANN DAMOANN VEY NNN RRR RP RP ee eee NNNNNNNN AHRAHAADRAARHA e ree NNN AAD 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 GEOTHERMAL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr ) eooooo 18,675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 26,411 26,411 26-411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26-411 26,411 26,411 26/411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26-411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26-411 26,411 26,411 26/411 DIESEI. PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2.335 2,465 2,595 847 973 1,102 1,233 1,366 1,502 1,641 1,783 ! 1,928 2,075 2/225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2.225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2.225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2.225 2.225 DIESEL, CAPACITY ADDITION SCHEDULE (Mw) 0.00 0.00 9.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ° eoooo0o°o eoooeeeeo esooooogose CAPACITY REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (mw) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5-60 2-50 0.00 ° 2 606 ecoooo°o avoooogo eoscoooscs ‘ eo°o eccoooooo°o oeoon Oonoco LDDITION/ REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (MW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 -60 -00 -00 -92 -00 -00 60 NucoocooOo ° ow oo 0.00 0.00 ° OnwO oooso o So cooooooocfo eonoo oso owe ONO el UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DICSE!. FIRM GBOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr) 0) (ma) ro) (Ma) (MWh/yr) (Mwy) (Mw) (Mw) (mw) 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,152 5.77 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,652 6.34 0.0 9.5 6.7 oO 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 18,162 6.91 0.0 12.0 9.2 oO 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 19,455 7.40 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 20,750 7.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,047 8.39 6.7 12.0 15.9 19,842 2,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,346 8.88 6.7 12.0 15.9 21,012 2,335 0.00 0.00 0.00 24,648 9.38 6.7 12.0 15.9 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 25,952 9.88 6.7 12.0 15.9 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,259 10.37 6.7 12.0 15.9 24,533 2,726 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.385 10.42 6.7 12.0 15.9 24,646 2,738 0.00 0.30 0.30 27,513 10.47 6.7 12.0 15.9 24,762 2,751 0.00 0.60 0.60 27,644 10.52 6.7 12.0 15.9 24,880 2,764 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,778 10.57 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,9000 2,778 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,914 10.62 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,122 2.791 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,053 10.67 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,194 10.73 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,339 10.78 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,505 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,486 10.84 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 26,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.4 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 28,637 10.90 6.? 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 + 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 78,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 . 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 18.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 78,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 ty é ¥ o> 2 SSN eS EF Nig oo Not s Ny N ie) SOSHNSEHOSSGE Nowy ub Ny UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL, DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (MWh/yr ) (mW) (mW) (MW) (Mw) (MWh/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (MW) (Mw) 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2-5 Oo 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,152 5.77 0.0 3.9 2.5 o 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,652 6.34 0.0 9.5 6.7 0 16-652 5.60 0.00 5.60 18,162 6.91 0.0 12.0 9.2 oO 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 19,455 7.40 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.750 7.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,047 8.39 10.0 12.0 19.2 19,842 2.205 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,346 8.88 10.0 12.0 19.2 21,012 2,335 0.00 0.00 0.00 24,648 9.38 10.0 12.0 19.2 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 25,952 9.88 10.9 12.0 19.2° 23,357 2.595 0.00 0.00 0.00 27-259 10.3? 10.0 12.0 19.2 24,533 2,726 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,385 10.42 10.0 12.9 19.2 24,646 2.738 0.00 0.30 0.30 27,513 10.47 10.0 12.0 19.2 24,762 2,751 0.00 0.60 0.60 27,644 10.52 10.0 12.0 19.2 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,778 10.57 10.0 12.0 19.2 35,000 2,778 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,914 10.62 10.0 12.0 19.2 25.122 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.67 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.73 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.78 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,505 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.84 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2-50 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 8,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12-0 19.2 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.90 19.2 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.90 12.0 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 10.0 12.90 19.2 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 vl UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(4)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL, USE (uh /yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,435 20,750 22,047 23,346 24,648 27,914 28,053 28,194 28,339 28,486 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 23,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 PR, 697 28,63? 28.637 28,637 28,637 28-637 PEAK (MW) 5.20 3.77 6.34 6.91 7.40 7.90 8.39 8.88 9.38 9.88 10.37 10.42 10.47 10.52 10.57 10.62 10.67 10.73 10.78 10.84 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 CAPACITY (MW) DIESEL CAPACITY 3 SCSO050505000S059000F0000000000F5005050N0000NvS FIRM GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY PRODUCTION (Mw) ANRDANNVUU NNNNN NNNNNOCANN NN NN DAD (MwWh/yr) oeoooo 18,675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 24,646 24,762 24,880 25,000 25,122 25,247 25,375 25,505 25,638 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 23,773 23,773 25,773 23,773 25,773 25,773 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 _ 2.075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2.595 2,726 2.738 2,751 2,764 2.778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2-849 2,864 2-864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 eceoeooeoeoeoooooOoOoCoOoOoOoOOoOOoCONaAOD 2 ---------------- --- 0-0-0 ----) See; e200009090000 eccooooooooooo esonpeoo OOOO OC OOO OOOO OOOO OOOO COO OCC OOO ONMOSD 8388s SUAL0vdORD09NNLVT9N09000 eseooooneosoooscoogosososoggsg Lc eeeee a Soo0n00024000900 onoooooococcococ$ceo (i -------------- -- -- -- -- - ------- ---- ADDITION/ i ecocoecoep ooo OOO OC OO ONUOC OOOO ODO O OOO OOOO OC ONUOO eLveoeonancnoscawuosoooocOoOUAaoOwoOOoONADOOMAWVOSODOOOUAGDO SNSSOSSSOSSSSSSGSSGSCSOSGSONGSGSCSSOSGSCSOSSGSOSSSSGSOCSOSS SL UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR FPNERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDPOELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEER (mv) (MW) (Mw) (mw) (Mwh/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.77 0 3.9 2.50 0 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.34 0 9.5 6.70 ° 16,652 5.60 0.00 5-60 6.91 0 12.0 9.20 oO 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 7.40 0-70 12.0 9.90 3,114 16,341 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.90 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 17,636 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.39 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 18,933 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.88 0.70 12.0 9.90 3.114 20,232 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.38 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 21,534 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.88 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 22,838 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.37 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 24,145 2.50 0.00 2.50 10.42 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 24,271 0.00 0.30 0.30 10.47 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 24,399 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.52 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 24,530 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.57 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114- 24,664 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.62 0-70 14.5 12.40 3,114 24,800 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 10.67 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 24,939 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,194 10.73 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,339 10.78 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,486 10.84 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,372 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0-00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 5.60 5.60 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 2-50 2.50 28.637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 | 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 12.40 3.114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 2.50 2.50 28.637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.60 0.60 78,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,63? 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,63) 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 9L UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY FRODUCTION LOU GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--!YDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (MW) (MW) (Mw) (MWh/yr ) (Mwh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (MW) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,252 5.77 0 3.9 2.50 oO. 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,652 6.34 0 9.5 6.70 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 18,162 6.91 0 12.0 9.20 0 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 19,455 7.40 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 17,281 0.00 0.00 0.00 20,750 7.90 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 18,576 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,047 8.39 0.26 12.0 9.46 2.174 19,873 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,346 8.88 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 21,172 0.00 0.00 0.00 24,648 9.38 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 22,474 0.00 0.00 0.00 25,952 9.88 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 23.778 2.50 0.00 2.50 27,259 10.37 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,085 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.42 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 25,211 0.00 0.30 0.30 10.47 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 25,339 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.52 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,470 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.57 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,604 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.62 0.26 14.5 11.96 2/174 25,740 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.67 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,879 0.00 0.60 0.60 10.73 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,020 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.78 0.26 14.5 11.96 2/174 26,165 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.84 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,312 0.00 0.92 0.92 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2/174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.90 0.26 14.5 11-96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 5.60 5.60 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 2.50 2.50 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2/174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2/174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 2.50 2.50 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,627 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26.463 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 0.26 14.3 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 LL UNALASKA/DUTCH HARPOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(3)---HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Mvin/yx ) (Mw) (Mw) (MW) (mw) (MWh/yr ) (Mwh/yr) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 L986 15,152 3.77 0 3.9 2.50 °O 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 oO 9.5 6.70 °O 16,652 5.60 0.00 5-60 198s 18,162 6.91 bo} 12.0 9.20 0 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0.96 12.0 10-16 5,288 14,167 0.00 0.00 0.00 2990 20.750 7.90 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 15,462 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 22,047 8.39 0.96 12.0 10.16 5-288 16,759 0.00 0.00 0.00 199? 23,346 8.88 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 18,058 0.00 0.00 “0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 0.96 12.0 10.16 5-288 19,360 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 20,664 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,259 10.37 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 21,971 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 27,385 10.42 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,097 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,225 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27,644 10.52 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,356 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 0.96 14.5 12.66 51288 22,490 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 27,914 10.62 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,626 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,765 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,906 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,051 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 28,486 10.84 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,198 0.00 0.92 0.92 200 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 7006 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 2-50 2.50 200 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,627 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 2.50 2-50 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5, 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90. 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 8L UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENEPGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT DIESE!. FIRM DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr ) (MW) (mw) (mw) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (MW) 1985 13,663 5.20 3.9 2.5 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 3.9 2.5 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 9.5 6.7 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 12.0 9.2 22.058 2-50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 14.5 11.7 24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 14.5 11.7 27,279 0.00 0.00 0.00 2199) 28,721 10.93 14.5 11.7 28,721 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30.174 11.48 14.5 11.7 30,174 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 17.0 14.2 31,638 2.50 0.00 2-50 1994 33,113 12.60 17.0 14.2 33,113 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,609 13.17 17.0 14.2 34,600 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 17.0 14.2 34,917 0.00 0.30 0.30 299? 35,246 13.41 17.0 14.2 35,246 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 13.54 17.0 14.2 35,589 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 17.0 14.2 35,946 0,00 0.00 0.00 2009 36,317 13.82 17.0 14.2 36,317 0-00 0.00 0.00 200: 36,704 13.97 17.0 14.2 36,704 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37.106 14.12 17.0 14.2 37,106 0.00 0.00 0.00 2903 37,525 14.28 19.5 16.7 37,525 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 37,961 14.44 19.5 16.7 37,961 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 : 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 38,435 14.62 19.5 16.7 38.415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38-415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 2-50 2014 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.60 0.60 7018 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 38,415 14.62 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 6Z UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)---GDOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr) (mw) (Mw) (Mw) (MW) (MWh/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (mw) 2985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 0 3.9 2.5 ° 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 C 9.5 6.7 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5-60 1988 22,058 8.39 ° 12.0 9.2 ° 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 0 14.5 11.7 0 24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 27.279 10.38 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 10,722 0.00 0.00 0.00 199) 28,721 10.93 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 12,165 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30,174 11.48 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 13,617 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 15,081 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 16,557 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 18,044 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 18,360 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 2.1 14.5 13.8 16/556 18,690 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 19,033 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 2.1 14.5 13.8 46/556 19,390 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 36,317 13.82 2.1 17.0 16.3 16-556 19,761 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 36,704 13.97 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 20,148 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37,106 14.12 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 20,550 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 20,969 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,405 0.00 0.92 0.92 2008 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 5.60 5.60 7008 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 7013 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 38.415 14.62 2.2 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 38.415 14.62 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 2.50 2.50 2021 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.60 0.60 7022 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 2.2 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 38,415 14.62 24 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 08 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr) (Mw) (MW) (Mw) (mw) (MWh/yr) (Mvh/yr ) (mw) (Mw) (mw) 1985 13,663 $5.20 0 3-9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 0 3.9 2.5 oO 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 ° 9.5 6.7 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 72,958 8.39 ° 12.0 9.2 ° 22,058 2.50 0.00 2-50 1989 24,664 9.38 0 14.5 11.7 ° 24,664 2-50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 4.2 14.5 15.9 24,551 2,728 0-00 0.00 0.00 1992 28,721 10.93 4.2 14.5 15.9 25,849 2,872 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 320.174 11.48 4.2 14.5 15.9 27.157 3,017 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 4.2 14.5 15.9 28,474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 4.2 14.5 15.9 33.113 oO 0.00 0.00 0.00 3,995 34,600 13.17 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 1,488 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 1,804 0.00 0.30 0.30 199? 35,246 13.41 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 2,133 0.00 0.60 0.60 2998 35,589 13.54 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 2.476 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 4.2 14.5 15.9 sean 2,833 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 36,317 13.82 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 3,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 36,704 13.97 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 3,591 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37,106 14.12 4.2 14.5 15.9 33.113 3,994 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 4,412 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 4,848 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 2.50 2-50 2010 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 36,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5-302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5.302 0.00 0.30 0.30 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5-302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,435 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33-113 5,302 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 _0.00 0.00 T8 YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 199? 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ENERGY USE (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 27,279 28,721 30,374 31,638 33,113 34,600 34,917 35-246 35,589 35,946 36,317 36,704 37.106 37,525 37,961 38,415 38,415 38,415 48,415, 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,435 38,415 38,415 38,415 COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY PEAK (Mw) 5.20 6.25 7.32 8.39 9.38 10.38 10.93 11.48 12.04 12.60 13.17 13.29 13.41 13.54 13.68 13.82 13.97 14.12 14.28 14.44 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 "14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 ecoooco AMAAAAMAAMAAAAARABDAAAAAHAAAMAAAAAARAARAHARAAG WBWUWUUVUVUVUVUUVUUYUUVUWYUUUbYuUUUUUUUUNUuuUD UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAI. FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) FIRM GEOTHERMAL (mw) Sooo OOOONNNUN DODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDBDDBDDODEOANN CoCo OoC OOOO ODO OOO OOO OOOO OOOOOSO RE RPE RR EER ER RE RR RE RR ER EE Ee ee eee eee DODDDDDDaDD CAPACITY PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr ) eoooo 24,551 25,849 27,157 28,474 29,802 31,140 31,425 31,722 32,030 32,35 32,68 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,165 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 -34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3,711 3,753 3.796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 ° 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 coocooocoooo eoooooooo°o SSESSSSSSSSSSSOSOSSSSSSOSOSSSSSSSOSGOSOSSSS eouuacseowvcooacooomavoooooooOoOooSo ewcsceonancooawoood SNSSSCOSSSSOSSSSSSSSOSCSOSSONSSSOSSSSOSSSSSSGSSSGOOS ecoeocooeoeo COO OC OOOO OCC ODOC OOO OOOO OOO OOOO cooeoo oo OOOO OOOO ONNU OOO OO OOOO OOO eceoooeeospopoOooOoOoOOOSOOOOOSNOOSD ADDITION/ REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (Mw) SOSdoUUMADOwWOODO_OOMVO_HOOOOUUADSO SSSSSOSCOSCOSOONSSOSSOSSCSOSCOSOSSSSSOSSOSS ooo COSDSCOSOCOCCOOCCOOOCOONNUDODOC ODOC OOOO OO OOOONNU OO ewvconangnooawoae o6oooo ONO 28 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEOTHDRMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION YELR (Mun/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (MW) (MW) (MWh/yr ) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 16,435 6.25 0 3.9 2.5 0 19,2323 7.32 0 9.5 6.7 0 22,058 8.39 0 12.0 9.2 ° 24,664 9.38 0 14.5 11.7 0 27,279 10.38 8.4 14.5 20.1 24,551 28,722 10.93 8.4 14.5 20.1 25,849 30.174 11.48 8.4 14.5 20.1 27,157 32,638 12.04 8.4 14.5 20.1 28,474 33,113 12.60 8.4 14.5 20.1 29,802 34,600 13.17 8.4 14.5 20.1 31,140 34.917 13.29 8.4 14.5 20.1 31,425 35,246 13.4) 8.4 14.5 20.1 31,722 35,389 13.54 8.4 14.3 20.1 32,030 35,946 13.68 8.4 14.5 20.1 32,35, 36,317 13.82 8.4 14.5 20.1 32,68 36,794 13.97 8.4 14.5 20.1 33,034 27,106 14.12 8.4 14.5 20.1 33,396 37,525 14.28 8.4 14.5 20.1 33,773 37,961 14.44 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,165 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38.415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38.435 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20-1 34,573 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 86,45 14.62 B.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 38,4 14.62 8.4 20.1 34,573 Ws 14.62 8.4 20.1 34,373 3844 14.62 8.4 20.1 34,573 8.4 14.62 8.4 20-2 34,573 39,415 14-62 8.4 20.1 34,573 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2-872 3-017 3,164 3.311 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3,711 3,753 3,796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,84) 3,841 evoenmgooonanvoocoooooyvyracoowooOmADOOMUWVOSODODIDDIOSOSO SNSSSCSSSSOSGOSSGSGSSSGSOSCSOSONSGSSOSSGSCSCSOSSSOSSSSSSSS Seosoosodd000D000N0NN0NRDNDNN0N09N90090 SSSSSGSCSCSCSCSOSSOSSCSSSSCSSSSSSOSSOSSS 2° So 2° So COTDSDSOSTDOSDOOCOOCOOCOOONNU COO OC OCOD OOOO OC OCO CO OOO ocoocooococooooooooooooooeosocooocooSeoo So 2 3 -00 aw oo 2200 SoomvVO0009ouNUUADOH00 SONSSSOSSSOCSGSOSGSOSSSGSCSCSCSGSONSGSOSCSOS SSSCTODOCOCOOCOCOOOONNUDOOD DOO OO OD OC OO OONNUOD owoo €8 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GHOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ G¥ COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DTESEL, FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT E USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACTTY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YELR (MWh/yr) (MW) (my) (MW) (mw) (MWh/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,435 6.25 °O 3.9 2.5 0 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 19,233 7.32 ° 9.5 6.7 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 22,058 8.39 0 12.0 9.2 oO 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 24,664 9.38 ° 14.5 11.7 0 24,664 2.50 0.00 2-50 27,279 10.38 10.5 14.5 22.2 24,551 2,728 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,721 10.93 10.5 14.5 22-2 25,849 2,872 0.00 0.00 0.00 30,174 11.48 10.5 14.5 22.2 27,157 3,017 0.00 0.00 0.00 31,638 12.04 10.5 14.5 22.2 28,474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 33,113 12.60 10.5 14.5 22.2 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,600 13.17 10.5 14.5 22.2 31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,917 13.29 10.5 14.5 22.2 31,425 3,492 0.00 0.30 0.30 35,246 13.41 10.5 14.5 22.2 31,722 3,525 0.00 0.60 0.60 35,589 13.54 10.5 14.5 22.2 32,030 3,559 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,946 13.68 10.5 14.5 22.2 32,351 3,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,317 13.82 10-5 14.5 22.2 32,686 3,632 0.00 0.00 0.00 367704 13.97 10.5 14.5 22.2 33,034 3,670 0.00 0.60 0.60 37,106 14.12 10.5 14.5 22.2 33,396 3,711 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,525 14.28 10.5 14.5 22.2 33,773 3.753 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,961 14.44 10.3 14.5 22.2 34,165 3,796 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2B, 415, 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 5.60 38,415 14.62 10.5 34.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 33,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 28.415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22-2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,415 24.62 10.5 14.5 22-2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,425 14.62 10.5 14.5 22-2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.30 0.30 3,415 14.6? 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,435 14.62 10.3 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,435 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 38.415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 7 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 v8 EM: USE iu /yr ) 2985 13,662 16.435 29,233 22,058 24,664 27,279 28,722 30,174 31,638 33,113 34,600 34,917 35,246 35,589 35,946 $6,317 36,704 37,106 37,525 37,961 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 8.415 38,415 38.415 38,425 28,415 38,415 18,415 38,415 UNALASKA/DUTCH H&2D0R EN! MODERATE GRO ERNATIVE A(6)--GEOT? PEAK (mw) 5.20 6.25 7.32 8.39 9.38 10.38 10.93 11.48 12.04 412.60 13.17 13.29 13.41 13.54 13.68 13.82 13.97 14.12 14.28 14.44 14.62 14-62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 SPGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL CAPACTTY (mw) 12. 12 12. 12 MAL TD 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 9 9 5 9 5 -5 a) 5 wu VuUUHUNU nu wu tn On un ur ul ue un ur tn ur ut wu ui ut SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) FIRM GE5OTHERMAL CAPACITY (mw) PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) oooo°o 24,551 25,849 27,157 28,474 29,802 31,140 31,425 31,722 32,030 32,351 32,686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,165 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 44,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 DIESEL PRODUCTION (mth/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2,728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3,711 3,753 3,796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 CAPACITY ADDITION SCHEDULE (MW) ecoocosc Ooo OC OC OOOO OCOD OOO OOOO OOOO OOOO ONNU OO SSooODODOSCOOCOOOODOOOOOS OOOO OSOOSOOONOSNEOSOOOUNADOS SSSSSSSSSSSSOSSOSCSSSSSSSSOSOSSSSSSSSSSOSSCOSCSS CAPACITY REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (Mw) AOSSMvVOSOSOONUUAOF_.L_EONDDOAavV999N9999N90900 SSOSSSSOSSSSOSSSCOSCSOSSONGSGSOSSOSSOSOSSSSSOSSSSOSS egwoo NO eCooKC OCOD OOOO OD OONNU OOOO OOOO OOOO OO COCO OOO OO 3 ADDITION/ REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (Mw) eocoCOC OCC ONNU COSCO OOOO OD OO OOO OONNU OOD SOoOnmvoscos0ouNUAcoOwWDoOmADOOMAYVOSOSOOUVUADO SSOSSSSOSOSSCOCSCOSOONSDSOSOSCSOOSCSSOSSSOSCOSOSS ooo°o oono eooos 0.92 0.00 $8 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(1)--GHOTHERMAL, BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) DIESEL ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL, DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL, DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (MW) (Mw) (MWh/yr ) (Mwh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2-5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 0.0 3.9 2.5 oO 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 0.0 9.5 6.7 °O 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 0.0 12.0 9.2 oO 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 0.0 14.5 11.7 0 24,664 2.50 0.00 2-50 1990 27,279 10.38 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 867 0.00 0.00 0.00 199} 28,721 10.93 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 2,310 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30,174 11.48 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 3,762 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 5,226 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 3-4 14.5 15.1 26,411 6,702 | 0.00 0.00 0-00 1995 34,600 13.17 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 8,189 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 8,505 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 8,835 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 9,178 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-All 9,535 0.00 0.00 0.00 7000 36,317 13.82 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 9,906 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 36,704 13.97 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 10,293 0.00 0-60 0.60 2002 37,106 14.12 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 10,695 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 11,114 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 3.4 14.5 15.1 26/411 11,550 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38.4 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 2-50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 2-50 2.50 2010 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 201) 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0-00 0.00 0.00 2020 38,435 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 202) 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 38,415 14.62 3-4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 98 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE, GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL ENFRGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Mwh/yr ) (mw) (Mw) (Mw) (mw) (Mwh/yr ) (Mwh/yrr ) (Mw) (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 16,435 0.00 0.00 2997 19,233 7.32 0.0 9.5 6.7 ° 19,233 5.60 0.00 1988 2,058 8.39 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 22,058 2.50 0.00 1929 24,664 9.38 0.0 14.5 11.7 ° 24,664 2.50 0.00 1990 27,279 10.38 6.7 14.5 18.4 24,551 2.728 0.00 0.00 199) 28,721 10.93 6.7 14.5 18.4 25,849 2,872 0.00 0.00 1992 20,174 11.48 6.7 14.5 18.4 27,157 3,017 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 6.7 14.5 18.4 28,474 3,164 0.00 - 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 6.7 14.5 18.4 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 6.7 14.5 18.4 31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 1996 4, OL? 13.29 6.7 14.5 18.4 31,425 3,492 0.00 0.30 1997 1246 13.41 6.7 14.5 18.4 31,722 3,525 0.00 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 6.7 34.5 18.4 32,030 3,559 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 6.7 14.5 18.4 32,351 3,595 0.00 0.00 2000 36.317 13.82 6.7 14.5 18.4 32,686 3,632 0.00 0.00 2001 36/704 13.97 6.7 14.5 18.4 33,034 3-670 0.00 0.60 7002 374106 14.12 6.7 14.5 18.4 33,396 3,711 0.00 0.00 003 37,525 14.28 6.7 14.5 18.4 33,773 3,753 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,165 3,796 0.00 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 7006 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 200? 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2010 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 2011 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 7012 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 2014 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 2016 38,435 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,84) 0.00 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 7018 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,84) 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 2020 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 18,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 2024 28,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 £8 SONSGSOSCSGSSO ° evwconcoonuooooo0ounvnanoowoonooOn Snsosooscsogoooooogogggg eoocooooOoOoOoOOOOCOONNYUCOCOOOCOCOOCOCSO UNALASKA/DUTCH HAREOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GBOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DICSEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL § ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE = SCHEDULE YEAR (Mw) (mw) (Mv) (Mw) (MWh/yr ) (MWh/yr) (MW) (Mw) (Mw) 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2-5 oO, 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.435 6-25 0.9 3.9 2.5 ° 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 19,233 7.32 0.0 9.5 6.7 Oo 19,233 5.60 0.00 5-60 22,938 8.39 0.0 12.0 9.2 Oo 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 24,664 9.38 0.0 14.5 11.7 0 24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 27,279 10.38 10.0 14.5 21.7 24,551 2.728 0.00 0-00 0.00 28,721 10.93 10.0 14.5 21.7 25,849 2,872 9.00 0.00 0.00 : 30,174 11.48 10.0 14.5 21.7 27,157 3,017 0.00 0.00 0.00 199% 31,638 12.04 10.0 14.5 21.7 28-474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,213 12.60 10.0 14.5 21.7 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 10.0 14.5 21.7 31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 0.00 2996 34,917 13.29 10.0 14.5 21.7 31,425 3,492 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 10.0 14.5 21.7 31,722 3,525 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 10.0 14.5 21.7 32.030 3,559 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,946 13.68 10.0 14.5 21.7 2 3,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,317 13.82 10.0 14.5 21.7 32,686 3,632 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,704 13.97 10.0 14.5 21.7 33,034 3,670 0.00 0.60 0.60 37,106 14.12 10.0 14.5 21.7 33,396 3,711 0.00 0.00 0.00 47,325 14.28 10.0 14.5 21.7 33,773 3,753 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,961 14.44 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,165 3,796 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 384415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38-415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 5.60 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 10.0° 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 * 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0-00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.30 0.30 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,84) 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 ' 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 48,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.435 14.62 10.0 14.5 21-7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 YEASR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(4)--GDOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) ENERGY COINCIDENT GROTHERMAL USE (MWh /yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 27,279 28,721 30,174 31,638 33,113 34,600 34,917 35,246 35,589 35,946 36,317 36,704 37,106 37,525 37,961 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 PEAK (MW) 5.20 6.25 7.32 8.39 9.38 10.38 10.93 11.48 12.04 12.60 13.17 13.29 13.41 13.54 13.68 13.82 13.97 14.12 14.28 14.44 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 CAPACITY (MW) FIRM GDOTIIERMAL CAPACITY PRODUCTION (mw) VU CANN NNNE wer rN N ur 25-1 25.1 (Mwh/yr) \ eoooo 24,551 25,849 27,157 28,474 29,802 31,140 31,425 31,722 32,030 32,351 32,686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,165 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3-670 3,711 3-753 3,796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 DIESCL CAPACITY ADDITION SCHEDULE (MW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ° 2 o [~~~ - 0 - - -- ----- ----) ecscoceoooeeoceoeooeooOOoOSoOoOOSOOOOOSOD Seseoooscoooososcoooososesososososooosgcs CAPACITY REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (1409) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 2° AOSSHVOQCOOCOOUUAdD.OvVOOH SNSSOSSOSSOSOSSSSSGSOCOCOSONSSS &O090 eoocnOosc OD OOOO OO OONNUOQgOOOO ADDITION/ REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (Mw) eccocosc oc OCC CCDC OCONNUD OCOD OC OCOD OC OC OONNUCO SeLoOoHREODOMVOOOHOOOUUADSOHVDOMOD.OAVOOCOOOOHUADO SRS SS SS SSS SSS SSS SS SSSR SSSSSSSSSESSESSSSSSES 68 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH! SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YE (MWh/yr) (mw) (Mv) (mw) (Mw) (Muh /yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (MW) (MW) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 oO 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 ° 3.9 2.50 | Oo 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 0 9.5 6.70 ° 19,233 5-60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 O 12.0 9.20 °o 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 0.70 12.0 9.90 3/114 21,550 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 27,279 10.38 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 24-165 2-50 0.00 2-50 1997 28,721 10.93 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,607 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 10,174 11.48 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 27,060 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 28,524 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 29,999 2.50 0.00 2.50 1995 34.600 13.17 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 31,486 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 0.70 » 17.0 14.90 3,114 31,803 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 32,132 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 32-475 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 32,832 0.00 0.00 0.00 26,317 13.82 0.70 17.0 14.90 3/114 33,203 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,704 13.97 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 33,590 0.00 0.60 0.60 37,106 14.12 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 33,992 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,525 14.28 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 34,411 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,961 14.44 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 34,847 0.00 0.92 0.92 36,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 5.60 5.60 18,415 14.62 0.70 37.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 2-50 2.50 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17-0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 2.50 2-50 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3.114 35,301 0.00 2.50 2-50 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.30 0.30 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3.114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 48,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.60 0.60 48,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0-00 0.00 0.00 48,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 06 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)—-HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL ADDITION/ FNERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT usr PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr) (MW) (MW) (MW) (Mw) (mMwh/yr ) (Mwh/yr) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 ° 3.9 2.50 oO 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 19R6 16,435 6.25 0 3.9 2.50 0 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 © 9.5 6.70 ° 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 oO 12.0 9.20 oO 22-058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 22,490 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,279 10.38 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,105 2.50 0.00 2-50 28,721 10.93 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,547 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.174 11.48 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 28,000 0.00 0.00 0.00 31,638 12.04 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 29,464 2-50 0.00 2.50 33,113 12.60 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 30,939 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,600 13.17 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 32,426 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,917 13.29 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 32,743 0.00 0.30 0.30 35,246 13.41 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 33,072 0.00 0.60 0.60 35,389 13.54 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 33,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,946 13.68 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 33,772 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,317 13.82 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 34,143 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 36,704 13.97 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 34,530 0.00 0.60 0.60 2902 37,106 14.12 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 34,932 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 35,351 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 35,787 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36-241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 5-60 5-60 2008 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 2-50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 2.50 2.50 201! 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 2-50 2.50 2014 38,415 14.6? 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2025 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36-241 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.30 0.30 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 0.76 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,425 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.76 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 9.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0-00 38,435 14.62 0.26 . 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,4 14.62 9.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 2.50 2-50 T6é UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE. GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)-— HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL | ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE = SCHEDULE = SCHEDULE YEAR (mwWa/yr) (mw) (mu) (mw) (Mw) (Mh/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (mw) (mw) (MW) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,435 6.25 0 3.9 2.50 0 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 19,233 7.32 0 9.5 6.70 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 22,058 8.39 ° 12.0 9.20 0 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 24,664 9.38 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 19,376 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,279 10.38 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 21,991 2.50 0.00 2.50 28,721 10.93 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 30,174 11.48 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 24,886 0.00 0.00 0.00 31,638 12.04 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 26,350 0.00 0.00 0.00 33/113 12.60 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 27,825 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,600 13.17 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,312 2.50 0.00 2.50 34,917 13.29 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,629 0.00 0.30 0.30 35,246 13.41 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,958 0.00 0.60 0.60 35,589 13.54 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 30,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,946 13.68 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 30,658 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,317 13.82 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 31,029 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,704 13.97 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 31/416 0.00 0.60 0.60 37,106 14.12 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 31,818 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,525 14.28 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 32,237 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,961 14.44 0.96 17-0 15.16 5,288 32,673 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 = = 33,127 0.00 5.60 5.60 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33/127 0.00 0.30 0.30 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 26 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE CAPACITY ENERGY COINCIDENT DIESEL FIRM DIESEL ADDITION USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr) (MW) (Mw) (Mw) (MWh/yr ) (MW) 13,663 5.20 3.9 2.5 13,663 0.00 16,941 6.45 3.9 2.5 16,941 0.00 20,913 7.96 9.5 6.7 20,913 5.60 24,844 9.45 12.0 9.2 24,844 2.50 28,510 10.85 14.5 11.7 28,510 2.50 32,265 12.28 17.0 14.2 32,265 2.50 35,104 13.36 17.0 14.2 35,104 0.00 37,884 14.42 19.5 16.7 37,884 2.50 40,956 15.58 19.5 16.7 40,956 0.00 44,331 16.87 22-0 ° 19.2 44,331 2.50 47,690 18.15 22.0 19.2 47,690 0.00 30,172 19.09 22.0 19.2 50,171 0.00 34,508 20.74 24.5 21.7 54,508 2.50 58,376 22.21 27.0 24.2 58.376 j2-50 62,467 23.77 27.0 24.2 62,467 0.00 66,804 25.42 29.5 26.7 66,804 2.50 71,417 27.18 32.0 29.2 71,417 2.50 76,334 29.05 32.0 29.2 76,334 0.00 81,422 30.98 34.5 31.7 81,422 2.50 86,885 33.06 37.0 34.2 86,885 2.50 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 2.50 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92.765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92.765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92.765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92.765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.? 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 92.765 35.30 39.5 16.7 92,765 0.00 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 CAPACITY ADDITION/ REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (mw) (raw) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.60 3.10 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.60 3.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.92 3.42 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 5.60 5.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2-50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 3.10 3.10 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 3.10 3.10 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 3.42 3.42 2.50 2.50 £6 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Mh/yr) (Mw) (MW) (MvI) (Mw) (Mwh/yr ) (Mwh/yr ) (MW) (mw) (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 0 3.9 2.5 0 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 198? 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 °O 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 ° 12.0 9.2 0 24,844 2-50 0.00 2-50 1989 28,510 10.85 0 14.5 11-7 °O 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 15,709 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 35,104 13.36 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 18,547 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,328 2.50 0.00 2.50 1993 40,956 15.58 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 24,399 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 44,331 16.87 2.1 19.5 18.8 16,556 27,775 2.50 0.00 2.50 1995 47,690 18.15 2.1 19.5 18.8 16,556 31,134 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 50,171 19.09 2.1 22.0 21.3 16,556 33,614 2-50 0.30 2.80 1997 54,508 20.74 2.1 22.0 21.3 16,556 37,952 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 58.376 22.21 2-1 24.5 23.8 16,556 41,819 2.50 0.00 2-50 1999 62,467 23.77 2.1 24.5 23.8 16,556 45,911 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 66,804 25.42 2.1 27-0 26.3 16,596 50-248 2-50 0.00 2.50 71,417 27.18 2-1 29.5 28.8 16,556 54,861 2-50 0.60 3.10 76,334 29.05 2.1 32.0 31.3 16,556 59,778 2.50 0.00 2.50 20023 81,422 30.98 2-1 32.0 31-3 16,556 64,866 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 86,885 33.06 2-1 34.5 33.8 16,556 70,329 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005, 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 2.50 0.00 2-50 2006 92,765 35.30 2-1 37-0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.50 2.50 2909 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.50 2.50 ?O10 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 - 36.3 16,556 76-209 0-00 0.00 0.00 2011 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 ~ 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.00 2912 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2-50 2.50 2022 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2-50 2-50 2025 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 92,765 35.30 | 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.80 2.80 2017 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 92,765 35.30 2.1 37-0 36-3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2-50 2-50 2019 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.50 2.50 2021 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 3.10 3.10 2022 92.765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76.209 0.00 2.50 2.50 2023 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.00 7024 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76-209 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.50 2.50 v6 YER 1985 1986 198? 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995, 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 29C6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2912 2023 2014 2025 2016 2017 2018 2019 2029 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GEROTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) ENERGY USE (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,94) 20,913 24,844 28,510 32,265 35,104 37,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 50,171 54,508 58,376 62,467 66,804 71,417 76,334 81,422 86,885 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY PEAK (MW) 5.20 6.45 7.96 9.45 10.85 12.28 13.36 14.42 15.58 16.87 18.15 19.09 20.74 22.21 23.77 25.42 27.18 29.05 30.98 33.06 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 DIESEL CAPACITY NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNOCOOO Paaooea dada ReEH db Hho HHR-O Sa Dao oR oe RHR oH EER FIRM GEOTHERMAL (Mw) Re ee eee SOUNNURK CANN wowoveorvnuuu =. 20.9 20.9 23.4 25.9 25.9 28.4 30.9 33.4 33.4 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 CAPACITY PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) ecoooo 29,039 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33-113 33,113 334113 334113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 1,991 4,771 7,843 11,218 14,577 17,058 21,396 25-263 29,354 33-692 38,305 43,221 48,309 53,772 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 39,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Mw) (MW) (Mw) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2-50 2.50 0.00 2-50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.60 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.60 3.10 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.92 0.92 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 5.60 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 2.80 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 2.50 2-50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.10 3.10 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.92 0.92 0.00 2.50 2-50 G6 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GBOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USF PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Muh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (rt) (mw) (Mwh/yr ) (Mwh/ye ) (Mw) (Mw) (mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 oO 3.9 2-5 oO 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 Oo 12.0 9.2 oO 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0 14.5 11.7 0 28,510 2-50 0.00 2.50 1990 22,265 12.28 6.3 14.5 18.0 29-039 3,227 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 35,104 13.36 6.3 14.5 18.0 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,096 3,788 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 49,956 15.58 6.3 14.5 18.0 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 44,331 16.87 6.3 14.5 18.0 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 6.3 17.0 20.5 42,921 4,769 2.50 0.00 2-50 1996 50,172 19.09 6.3 17-0 20.5 49,669 502 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 6.3 19.5 23-0 49,669 4,839 2.50 0.60 3.10 1998 58,376 22.21 6.3 19.5 23.0 49,669 8,707 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 62,467 23.77 6.3 22.0 25.5 49,669 12,798 2.50 0.00 2.50 2000 66,804 25.42 6.3 22.0 25.5 49,669 17,135 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 71,417 27.18 6-3 24.5 28.0 49,669 21,748 2-50 0.60 3.10 2002 76,334 29.05 6.3 27.0 30-5 49,669 26-665 2.50 0.00 2.50 2003 81,422 30.98 6.3 29.5 33.0 49,669 31,753 2.50 0.00 2-50 2004 86,885 33.06 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 37,216 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35-5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2-50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 92,765 35-30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35-5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35-5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2016 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 3.10 3.10 2018 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2029 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2-50 2920 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 3.10 3.10 2022 92.765 35-30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2023 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 96 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) DIESEL ADDITION/ ENFRGY COINCIDENT GHOTHORMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MwWh/yr) (Mw) (MW) (MW) (Mw) (MWh /yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (MW) (MW) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,941 6.45 0 3.9 2.5 ° 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 24,844 9.45 0 12.0 9.2 0 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 28,510 10.85 0 14.5 11.7 ° 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 32,265 12.28 8.4 14.5 20.1 29,039 3.227 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,104 13.36 8.4 14.5 20.1 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,884 14.42 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,096 3.788 0.00 0.00 0.00 40,956 15.58 8.4 14.5 20.1 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 44,331 16.87 8.4 14.5 20.1 39,898 4.433 0.00 0.00 0.00 47,690 18.15 8.4 14.5 20.1 42,921 4,769 0.00 0.00 0.00 30,171 19.09 8.4 14.5 20.1 45,154 5,017 0.00 0.30 0.30 54,508 20.74 8.4 17.0 22.6 49,058 5,451 2.50 0.60 3.10 38,376 22.21 8.4 17.0 22.6 52,538 5,838 0.00 0.00 0.00 62,467 23.77 8.4 19.5 25.1 aa 6,247 2.50 0.00 2.50 66,804 25.42 8.4 22.0 27.6 66,226 579 2.50 0.00 2.50 71,417 27.18 8.4 22.0 27.6 66,226 5,192 0.00 0.60 0.60 76,334 29.05 8.4 24.5 30.1 66,226 10,108 2.50 0.00 2.50 81,422 30.98 8.4 27.0 32.6 66,226 15,196 2.50 0.00 2.50 86,885 33.06 8.4 29.5 35.1 66,226 20; 660 2.50 0.92 3.42 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 2.50 0.00 2.50 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37-6 66,226 26,540 0.00 5.60 5.60 92.765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66.226 26,540 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66.226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32-0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.30 0.30 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 3.10 3.10 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66/226 26,540 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66.226 26,540 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26.540 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 0.60 0.60 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 3.42 3.42 92, 765 35.30 8.4 32.0 37.6 66,226 26,540 0.00 2.50 2.50 £6 JNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ DNERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (mub/yr) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MWh/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (mw) (MW) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 °O 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 0 3.9 2.5 O 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,923 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 °O 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 0 12.0 9.2 0 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0 14.5 11.7 0 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 10.5 14.5 22.2 29,039 3,227 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 35,104 13.36 10.5 14.5 22.2 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 10.5 14.5 22.2 34-096 3,788 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,936 15.58 10.5 14.5 22.2 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 44,331 16.87 10.5 14.5 22.2 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 10.5 14.5 22.2 42,921 4,769 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 30,171 19.09 10.5 14.5 22.2 45,154 5,017 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 10.5 14.5 22.2 49,058 5.451 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 58,376 22.21 10.5 17.0 24.7 52,538 5,838 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 62,467 23.77 10.5 17.0 24.7 56,220 6,247 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 66,804 25.42 10.5 19.5 27.2 60,124 6,680 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 71,417 27.18 10.5 19.5 27.2 64,276 7,142 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 96,334 29-05 10.5 22.0 29.7 68,701 7.633 2.50 0.00 2.50 2003 81,622 30.98 10.5 24.5 32.2 73,280 8,142 2.50 0.00 2.50 96,885 33.06 10.5 27.0 34.7 82,782 4,103 2.50 0.92 3.42 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 2.50 0.00 2-50 92,765 35-30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 5.60 5.60 92.765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.00 2,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 + 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.30 0.30 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.60 0.60 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.60 0.60 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2-50 2.50 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 3.42 3.42 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.50 86 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENFRGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GDOTHERMAL DIESEL = ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) (MWh/yr ) (MWh/yr) . (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 0 3.9 2.5 ° 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 0 12.0 9.2 ° 24.844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0 14.5 11.7 ° 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 12.6 14.5 24.3 29,039 34227 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 35,104 13.36 12.6 14.5 24.3 31,593 3/510 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,096 3,788 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,956 15.58 12.6 14.5 24.3 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 44,331 16.87 12.6 14.5 24.3 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47.690 18.15 12.6 14.5 24.3 42,921 4,769 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 50.373 19.09 12.6 14.5 24.3 45,154 5,017 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 12.6 14.5 24.3 49,058 5,451 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 38,376 22.22 12.6 14.5 24.3 52,538 5,838 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 62,467 23.77 12.6 14.5 24.3 56,220 6,247 0.00 0.00 0.00 7000 66,804 25.42 12.6 17.0 26.8 60,124 6,680 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 71,417 27.18 12.6 19.5 29.3 64,276 74142 2.50 0.60 3.10 2002 76,334 29.05 12.6 19.5 29.3 68,701 7,633 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 81,422 30.98 12.6 22.0 31.8 73,280 8,142 2.50 0.00 2.50 2904 86,885 33.06 12.6 24.5 34.3 78,197 8,689 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 7019 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2070 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 2022 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0- 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 3.10 3.10 2022 97,765 35.30 12.6 27.07 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 66 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(1)--GROTIHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) ~ DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GBOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Muin/yr) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) (MWh/yr ) (mwh/yr ) (mw) (MW) (mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 ° 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 0.0 3-9 2.5 ° 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0.0 9.5 6.7 o 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0.0 14.5 11.7 ° 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 5,854 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 35,104 13.36 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 8,692 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 11,473 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,956 15.58 3.4 17.0 17.6 26-411 14,544 2.50 0.00 2.50 1994 44,331 16.87 3.4 17.0 17.6 26,411 17,920 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 3.4 19.5 20.1 26,411 21,279 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 50,171 19.09 3.4 19.5 20.1 26.411 23,759 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 3.4 22.0 22.6 26,411 28,097 2.50 0.60 3.10 1998 58,376 22.21 3.4 22.0 22.6 26,411 31,964 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 62,467 23.77 3.4 24.5 25.1 26,411 36,056 2.50 0.00 2.50 2000 66,804 25.42 3.4 27.0 27.6 26,411 40,393 2.50 0.00 2-50 2001 71,417 27.18 3.4 27.0 27.6 26,411 45,006 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 76,334 29.05 3.4 29.5 30.1 26,411 49,923 2.50 0.00 2.50 2003 81,422 30.98 3.4 32.0 32.6 26-411) 55,011 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 3.4 34-5 35.1 26,411 60,474 2-50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 3-4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37-6 26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26/411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92.765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2014 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 , 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2016 92,765 35.30 3.4 37-0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 3.10 3.10 2018 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37-6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2020 920765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37-6 26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2-50 2021 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37-6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 2-50 2-50 2023 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37-6 26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2-50 2024 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37-6 26,411 66,354 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 oGT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL = ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION = SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE yYEerR | (MWh/yr) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) (MW) (Mvih/yr ) (MWh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 ° 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 986 16,94] 6.45 0.0 3.9 2.5 ° 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0.0 9.5 6.7 ° 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,520 10.85 0.0 14.5 11.7 ° 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 6.7 14.5 18.4 29,039 3.227 0.00 0.00 0.00 199: 35,106 13.36 6.7 14.5 18.4 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 3992 27,884 14.42 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,096 3,788 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,956 15.58 6.7 14.5 18.4 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 44,33) 16.87 6.7 14.5 18.4 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 6.7 14.5 18.4° 42,921 4,769 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 50,171 19.09 6.7 17.0 20.9 45,154 5,017 2.50 0.30 2.80 1997 54,508 20.74 6.7 17.0 20.9 52,823 1,686 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 58,376 22.21 6.7 19.5 23.4 52,823 5,553 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 62,467 23.77 6.7 22.0 25.9 $2,823 9,644 2-50 0.00 2.50 2000 66,804 25.42 6.7 22.0 25.9 52,823 13,982 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 71.417 27.18 6.7 24.5 28.4 52,823 18,595 2.50 0.60 3.10 2002 76,334 29.05 6.7 27.0 30.9 52,823 23,511 2.50 0.00 2.50 2003 81,422 30.98 6.7 29.5 33.4 52,823 28,599 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 6.7 29.5 33.4 52,823 34,062° 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 2910 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2025 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 $2,823 39,942 0.00 2.80 2-80 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.60 0.60 92.765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 6.7 32-0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 3.10 3.10 92,765 35.30 6.7 12.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 6.7 32-0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.92 0.92 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 TOL YEAR 1983 1986 1987 1968 1989 1990 199) 1992 1992 1994 1995 1996 199? 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2069 2010 2012 2013 2014 2025 2916 2017 7918 2019 2020 202% 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)---GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) ENERGY USE (ouh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 26,510 32,265 35,104 37,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 50,172 54,508 58,376 62,467 66,804 71,417 76,334 81,422 86,885 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY PEAK (mw) 5.20 6.45 7.96 9.45 10.85 12.28 13.36 14.42 15.58 16.87 18.15 19.09 20.74 22.21 23.77 25.42 27.18 29.05 30.98 33.06 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 ey oo co K ° b ° Re Pe eee oooc00000 eooooc0000 ee oo ° DIESEL CAPACITY (MW) 17.0 22.0 FIRM GBOTHERMAL (Mw) FRPP OANNn NVVVN VU NNNNNE a sv x 21.7 21.7 21.7 24.2 24-2 26.7 29.2 29.2 31.7 34.2 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 CAPACITY PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) eooo°o 29,039 31,593 34,096 36-860 39,898 42,921 45,154 49,058 52,538 56,22 60,12 64,276 68,701 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78.840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78.840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3.227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 5,451 5,838 6,247 6,680 74142 7.633 2,582 8,045 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 CAPACITY ADDITION SCHEDULE (mw) COC CODD DDC COC OCONNNONNONOOOCOSOSCOONNUOO oo¢ Sood0000ONNUVOUUNOHOD.DDR0DRD0NONUADD SSSSSSSSSSSSSsSsssssssSsSsSSSSSSSSSSES oo oo oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 yuauoru ALOCOSOONUUASOWSOMODSOAWVOODO99999000 SESS S SSeS SSS SSS ses ss SN SS SSSSSsesSSSSSssssIss NWNOWNONDDDTDOSCSOOCNNUDODDODDDCDDDOCFCOCOCOCOOCCOCOOO ADDITION/ REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (Mw) > ShHUMOHeHOFUOUALO..O9RNONUADDS SRSSSSS SSS SSSSS sess s en ss ess SssesssSSssssss NWUNOWUNONOTDOSCCOCOCONNYUONYNOUNONODODOCOCOCOCSCONNUOSO Z0T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARPOR ERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(4)--GROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ CNERGY COINCIDENT GBOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GBOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YFR (Mulh/yr ) (Mw) (mw) (MW) (mw) (Mwh/yr ) (MwWh/yr ) (Mw) (mw) (MW) 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,941 6.45 0.0 3.9 2.5 oO 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 20,913 7.96 0.0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5-60 0.00 5.60 24,844 9.45 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 28,510 10.85 0.0 14.5 1.7 0 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 32,265 12.28 13.4 14.5 25.1 29,039 3,227 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,104 13.36 13.4 14.5 25.1 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,884 14.42 13.4 14.5 25.1 34,096 3,788 0.00 0.00 0.00 40,956 15.58 13.4 14.5 25.1 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 44,331 16.87 13.4 14.5 25.1 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 47,690 18.15 13.4 14.5 25.1 42,921 4.769 0.00 0.00 0.00 30,171 19.09 13.4 14.5 25.1 45,154 5,017 0.00 0.30 0.30 54,508 20.74 13.4 14.5 25.1 49,058 5,451 0.00 0.60 0.60 58,376 22.21 13.4 14.5 25.1 52,538 5,838 0.00 0.00 0.00 62,467 23.77 13.4 14.5 25.1 56,220 6,247 0.00 0.00 0.00 66,804 25.42 13.4 17.0 27-6 60,124! 6,680 2-50 0.00 2.50 72,417 27.18 13.4 17.0 27.6 64,276 7,142 0.00 0.60 0.60 76,334 29.05 13.4 19.5 30.1 68,701 7,633 2-50 0.00 2-50 81,422 30.98 13.4 22.0 32.6 73,280 8,142 2.50 0.00 2.50 86,885 33.06 13.4 24.5 35.1 78,197 8,689 2-50 0.92 3.42 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9.277 2.50 0.00 2.50 92,765 35.30 13.4 27-0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 5.60 5-60 92.765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37-6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.30 0.30 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.60 0.60 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 | 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.60 0.60 92,765 _ 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9.277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92.765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 3.42 3.42 92,765 35.30 13.4 27.0 37.6 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 cor UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENCRGY PRODUCTION . HIGH GROWTH SCCNARIO ALTERNATIVE C(J.)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL § ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE = SCHEDULE YEAR (muin/yr ) (Mw) (MW) (mw) (Mw) (Mwh/yr ) (Mwh/yr ) (Mw) (Mw) (Mw) 13,663 5.20 ° 3.9 2.50 ° 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,941 6.45 0 3.9 2.50 oO 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 20,933 7.96 0 9.5 6.70 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 24,844 9.45 0 12.0 9.20 ° 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 28,510 10.85 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,396 2.50 0.00 2.50 42, 265 12.28 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 29/151 0.00 0.00 0.00 * 35,104 13.36 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 31,990 2.50 0.00 2.50 37,884 14.42 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 34,770 0.00 0.00 0.00 40,956 15.58 0.70 19.5 17.40 3,114 37,842 2.50 0.00 2.50 44,332 16.87 0.70 19.5 17.40 3,114 41,217 0.00 0.00 0.00 47,690 18.15 0.70 22.0 19.90 3,114 44,576 2-50 0.00 2-50 30,171 19.09 0.70 22.0 19.90 3,124 47,057 0.00 0.30 0.30 54,508 20.74 0.70 24.5 22.40 3,114 51,394 2.50 0.60 3.10 58,376 22.21 0.70 24.5 22.40 3,114 55,262 0.00 0.00 0.00 62,467 23.77 0.70 27.0 24.90 Bll 59,353 2.50 0.00 2.50 66,804 25.42 0.70 29.5 27.40 3,11 63,690 2.50 0.00 2.50 71,417 27.18 0.70 29.5 27.40 3,114 68,303 0.00 0.60 0.60 76,334 29.05 0.70 32.0 29.90 3,114 73,220 2.50 0.00 2.50 81,422 30.98 0.70 34.5 32.40 3,114 78,308 2-50 0.00 2-50 86,885 33.06 0.70 37.0 34.90 3,114 83,771 2.50 0.92 3.42 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 2.50 0.00 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 5.60 5.60 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3.114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92.765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5. 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89/651 0.00 0.30 0.30 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 3.10 3.10 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2-50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,65) 0.00 0.60 0.60 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3.114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.70 - 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 3.42 3.42 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 vOl UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWT!! SCEN&RIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL § ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK = CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE = SCHEDULE YEAR (Muh/yr) (Mw) (Mw) (mw) (Mw) (Mwh/yr ) (Mwh/yr ) (mw) (Mw) * (Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 0 3.9 2.50 0 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.70 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 0 12.0 9.20 ° 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,336 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 32,265 12.28 0.26 17-0 14.46 2.174 30,091 2.50 0.00 2.50 1991 35,104 13.36 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 32,930 0.00 0.00 0.00 992 37,884 14.42 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 35,710 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,956 15.58 0.26 19.5 16.96 2174 38,782 2-50 0.00 2.50 1994 44,33) 16.87 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 42,157 0.00 0.00 0.00 agg 47,690 18.15 0.26 22.0 19.46 2,174 45,516 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 30,271 19.09 0.26 22.0 19.46 2,174 47,997 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 0.26 24.5 21.96 2.174 52,334 2.50 0.60 3.10 1998, 58,376 22.21 0.26 27.0 24.46 2.174 56,202 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 62,46? 23.77 0.26 27.0 24.46 2/174 60,293 0.00 0.00 0.00 20co 66,804 25.42 0.26 29.5 26.96 2.174 64,630 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 71,417 27.18 0.26 32.0 29.46 2/174 69,243 2.50 0.60 3.10 2007 76,334 29.05 0.26 32.0 29.46 2.174 74,160 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 81,422 30.98 0.26 34.5 31.96 2,174 79,248 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 0.26 37.0 34.46 2.174 84,711 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90/591 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90/591 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2.174 90,591 0.00 5.60 5.60 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2.174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2.174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 21174 90,591 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 0.00 0.00 97,763 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 0.30 0.30 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 3.10 3.10 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 » 2/174 90,591 0.00 0.00 0.00 97,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 92, 765 35.30 0.76 39.5 36.96 2,174 90,591 0.00 3.10 3.10 92,765 35.30 9.26 39.5 36.96 2.174 90,591 0.00 0.00 0.00 92.765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2.174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 1765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2.174 90,591 0.00 3.42 3.42 92,765 35.30 0.26 39.5 36.96 2.174 90,591 0.00 2.50 2.50 SOT UNALASKA/DUTCH H®RROR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DTESEI. FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE, PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Wh/yr ) (MW) (mw) (Mw) (Mw) (MWh/yr) (MWh/yr ) (MW) (mw) (Mw) 21985 13,663 5.20 ° 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6-45 ° 3.9 2.50 ° 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 2987 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.70 ° 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 O 12.0 9.20 ° 24,844 2-50 0.00 2-50 1989 28,510 10.85 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,222 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 26,977 0.00 0.00 0.00 199) 35,104 13.36 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,816 2.50 0.00 2.50 199? 37,884 14.42 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 32,596 0.00 0.00 0.00 21993 40,956 15.58 0.96 19.5 17.66 5,288 35,668 2.50 0.00 2-50 1994 44,331 16.87 0.96 19.5 17.66 5,288 39,043 0-00 0.00 0.00 yeas 47,699 18.15 0.96 22.0 20.16 5,288 42,402 2-50 0.00 2.50 1996 50,273 19.09 0.96 22.0 20-16 5,288 44,883 0.00 0.30 0.30 199? 54,508 20.74 0.96 24.5 22.66 5,288 — 49,220 2.50 0.60 3.10 rogn 58,376 22.21 0-96 24.5 22.66 5,288 53,088 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 62-467 23.77 0.96 27.0 25.16 5,288 57,179 2-50 0.00 2.50 a 66,804 25.42 0.96 29-5 27.66 5,288 61,516 2.50 0.00 2.50 WG? 27.18 0.96 29.5 27.66 5,288 66,129 0.00 0.60 0.60 76,324 29.05 0.96 32.0 30.16 5,288 71,046 2.50 0.00 2.50 BL, 422 30.98 0.96 34.5 32-66 5,288 76,134 2.50 0.00 2-50 86,885 33.06 0.96 37-0 35.16 5,288 81,597 2.50 0.92 3.42 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37-66 5,288 87,477 2-50 0.00 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87.477 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 5.60 5.60 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2-50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2-50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87.477 0.00 2.50 2-50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477" 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.30 0.30 92,763 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 3.10 3.10 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.60 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.60 0.60 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2-50 92,765 35.30 0.96 . 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 0.96 29.5 37.66 5,288 87.477 0.00 3.42 3.42 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 90T APPENDIX C Annual Costs and Economic Analyses of Power System Plans ALTERNATIVES BASE CASE DIESEL A TOTAL FLOW GEOTHERMAL SYSTEMS B BINARY GEOTHERMAL SYSTEMS C HYDROPOWER SYSTEMS anarainanirain APPENDIX C SUMMARY TABLE NET PRESENT VALUES OF BASE CASE AND ALTERNATIVES ($1,000) GROWTH SCENARIO MODERATE AS_ REQUIRED (1) 2.10 82,481 100,138 168,321 (2) 4.20 72,901 77,837 144,204 (3) 6.30 75 ,668 80,031 124,671 (4) 8.40 78,435 82,798 110,447 (5) 10.50 81,202 85 ,565 98,919 6) 12.60 83,969 88,332 100 ,034 (1) 3.35 75 503 90,315 159,301 (2) 6.70 | 85 ,965 90,328 131,434 (3) 10.05 95,265 99 628 115 ,829 4) 13.40 104,563 108,926 120 556 (1) __.70 (SHAISHNIKOF) 4 80,119 96,484 165 839 (2) __.26 (PYRAMID) 78,201 95,518 164 ,080 (3) .96 (BOTH { 77,733 94,011 163,452 na 5 AA PRN LOT YEAR 1985 1986 198? 1988 1989 1990 199) 1992 1993 1994 2995 2996 1997 1998 1999 2909 2003 2004 2005 2906 2907 2008 2009 2010 2011 7012 2013 7014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARTO PRODUCTION (mwh/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 20,750 22,047 23,346 24,648 25,952 27,259 27,385 27,513 644 778 27,914 28,053 28,194 28,339 28,486 28,637 26,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 1,729 1,837 1,946 2,054 2,163 2,272 2,282 2,293 2,304 2,315 2,326 2,338 2,350 2,362 2,374 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2.386 2.386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 FUEL PRICE (s/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 BASE CASE FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 1,513 1,640 1,771 1,907 2,048 2,194 2,249 2,304 2,362 2,420 2,481 2,543 2,607 2,673 2,741 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cosT ($1000) ° 3,920 1,750 (2,214) O&M Cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 5,994 3,929 2-285 2,403 2,525 2-652 4,533 2,919 3,060 3,416 3,681 3,316 3,374 3,432 3,913 3,555 3,619 4,329 3,753 3,822 76742 5,572 3,822 3,822 3,822 3,822 5,572 3,822 3,822 4,032 4,242 3,822 3,822 3,822 4,242 3,822 3,822 4,466 3,822 3,822 (2,214) $79,852 801 YEAR 1935 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2032 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (Min/yr) ecoooo 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16, 16,556 16,556 16.556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 7,454 2,948 12,857 [eM M N-NMR -------- -- - -- - ---) DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 4,193 5,493 6,790 8,092 9,396 10,702 10,828 10,957 11,088 11,221 11,357 11,496 11,638 11,783 11,930 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 349 458 566 674 783 892 902 913 924 935 946 958 970 982 994 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 t,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL, PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 306 408 51s 626 742 862 889 918 947 978 1,009 1,042 1,076 Llll 1,148 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1-185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 ° 2° ° ecooooe oo oOo OD OOO OONUOCODOOOCOCC OOOO O eouncowvwoonoooavoood SESS SSS SSSSSSSSSsssSsSussssssssssess CcosT ($1000) 0 3-920 1,750 eooooo°o (1,602) COST ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1-273 1,391 306 408 sis 626 742 1,072 1,309 918 947 978 1,429 1,042 1,076 1,755 1,148 1,185 5,105 2,935 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,395 1,605 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,605 1,185 1,185 1,829 1,185 1,185 (1,602) TOTAL O&M CcOosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 i TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,562 11,383 5,233 15,260 1,581 1,683 1,790 1,901 2,017 2,347 2.584 2,193 2,222 2-253 2,704 2,317 2,351 3,030 2,423 2,460 6,380 4,210 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,670 2,880 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,880 2,460 2,460 3,104 2,460 2,460 (1,602) $82,481 60T YEAR 1985 19N6 198? 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2030 2012 7012 2013 7014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (r/yr) eooo°o 18,675 19,842 22,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 24,646 24,762 24,880 25,000 25,122 25,247 25,375 25,505 25.638 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 253,773 25,773 23,773 25,773 25,773 23,773 25,773 25,773 23,773 25,773 COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 7,832 4,536 14,095 0 ecooeoeoeo ee OOO OOOO ODOC OOO COO OBC OO OC OOO UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE DIESEL » PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,435 2.075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2,595 2,726 2,738 2,751 2,764 2,778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,864 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1-110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 236 '2a2 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 28) 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 (Mw) ecococeo eo eo OC OOOO ONNUOCOOCO OOD ODO OOOO OCOCCONWOSO evoonocooavosooooouanocOoOwooOAagnooAawoooOsSOOCOUaROSO SNSSOSCSTOCOSSOSCSOSSSSSGSOSONSGSOSOSCSSOSOSSOSOSSSOSSOSOSOSS cosT ($1000) (1,602) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 911 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 491 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 3 = ‘TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,562 11,761 6,821 16,498 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5.476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,976 1,556 1,556 2,200 1,556 1,556 (1,602) $72,901 OLT YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2094 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 GFOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (Mulh/yr ) ecoooo 18,675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 24,646 24,762 24,880 25,000 25,122 25,247 25,375 25,305 25,638 23,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 25,773 23,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 235,773 25.773 25,773 23.773 25,773 COSTS ($1000) to} 5,568 8,210 6,124 15,333 ecooeoc oo CoC OC OOOO OCC OBC OO OC OCOD OOO OO OOS UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTIHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2.335 2,465 2,595 2,726 2,738 2,751 2.764 2.778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 236 242 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 28) 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 eoo0n00 SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSI8SESIINISSS [oe -------------- - - - -) 3 cost ($1000) 0 3,920" 1,750 (1,602) ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 gil 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 491 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 3 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,139 8,409 17,736 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5.476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,976 1,556 1,556 2,200 1,556 1,556 (1,602) $75,668 Itt 1985 1985 2987 L988 1989 1999 3992 1992 199% 994 2995 1996 199? 7993 1999 Ra ps men wBNWUoD90O wo 2533 1646 1262 24,880 25,000 25,122 25,247 nh BRAUN K OD a N ta 3,505 25,638 25,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 23,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 55773 73 273 1773 773 1773 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) CONSTRUCTION cOsTSs ($1000) PRODUCTION (wh /ye) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2,595 2.726 2,738 2,731 2,764 2,778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,62) 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239° 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 229 FUEL cost ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 36 42 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 781 281 281 281 281 28) 281 281 281 ADDITION/REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE cosT (mw) ($1000) 0.00 0 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 210 0.30 420 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 420 0.60 0 0.00 o 0.00 644 0.92 0 0.00 ° 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2-50- ° 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 ° 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 210 0.30 420 0.60 0 0.00 ° 0.00 0 0.00 420 0.60 0 0.00 ° 0.00 644 0.92 0 0.00 0 (1,602) ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 ‘1,391 151 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 gll 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 491 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL O&M cosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,517 9,997 18,974 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5,476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,976 1,556 1,556 2,200 1.556 1,556 (1,602) $78,435 ert YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 998 igae 2009 2002 CEOTHERMAL COMPONENT 23,357 24,533 CONSTRUCTION costs ($1000) 0 5,568 8,966 9,300 17,809 ecacneec oOo COCO COC OC OOOO OOOO OBC OO OCC COD UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2,595 2,726 2.738 2,751 2,764 2,778 2,79) 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 7,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,864 USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 DIESEL COMPONENT cosT ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 R36 242 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 281 781 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 SCHEDULE (mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 avoosoo ° we S200 Nd00502950 ° SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSNSSSSSSSSSSSSS 2eo0 [--------------- - -------- -----) ° eeo0m OoOnoSs FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST ($1000) ° 3,920 1,750 (1,602) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,391 isl 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 gll 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 491 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11-562 12,895 11,585 20,212 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5-476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,976 1,556 1,556 2,200 1,556 1,556 (1,602) $81,202 ell 1935 LO86 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2995 1996 199” 1998 1999 2908 200 2002 2003 ERMAL 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 . COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 9,344 10,888 19,047 0 CoO D OC OO ODOC OOOO ORC OC OOO OOOO DOOD OOOO O UNALASKAS/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS {1 GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERN TIVE A(6)--GDOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) DIESEL. PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2,595 2,726 2,738 2,751 2.764 2,778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL. PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.84) 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1-025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1-110 1-132 1.154 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 236 '242 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5-60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ° 2° 3 ALOSoS90OUNHRDOHL_OON_OOAVSOSO SNS SSS SS SSS SSSSSSSSSSENSSSSSSSSSS occoceocop ooo COD OC OC ONUCOC OOOO OOOO OO owooacgond COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 eooooo°o (1,602) COST ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 911 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 49. 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,562 13,273 13,173 21,450 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5,476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,976 1,556 1,556 2,200 1,556 1,556 (1,602) $83,969 vit YRER 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 2993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2910 201) 2012 2022 2014 2025 2016 2017 2018 20:9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION ‘LON 18.675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 26,41) 26,411 26,411 26,431 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26/421 26,411 26,411 26-411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,41) 26,411 26,411 26,41) 76.412 26,411 26,411 26,411 26-411 26-41) 26,411 76,432 26,41) 26,411 26.411 26,411 Costs ($1000) 0 5,568 8,398 6,913 15,501 ~~ - 8-8-2) ALTERNATIVE B(1)--GBROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mvlh/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2.075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2,595 847 973 1,102 1,233 1,366 1,502 1,641 1,783 1,928 2,075 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2-225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2.225 2.225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 FUEL, USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 i73 184 195 205 216 n 81 92 103 114 125 137 149 161 173 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 2185 185 185 185 185 185 185 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.84) 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 68 80 92 105 ihe 134 149 165 182 200 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ° w oS SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSES woOooddoouaoON95n9 Seoon0d0au eooooco oso oO DODO OONUDCODOOCOCOOO Ooneosgocs cosT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 ceooocoono (1,602) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 278 500 92 105 119 554 149 165 826 200 218 4,138 1,968 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 428 638 218 218 218 638 218 218 862 218 218 (1,602) TOTAL O&M CcosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 3 TOTAL SYSTEM CcosT ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,327 9,198 17,904 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,553 1,775 1,367 1,380 1,394 1,829 1,424 1,440 2,101 1,475 1,493 5413 3,243 1-493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,703 1,913 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,913 1,493 1,493 2,137 1,493 1,493 (1,602) $75,503 SIT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GHROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT a - a «3s TOTAL. = TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL OsM SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTTON USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcosT CosT CosT cosT YEOR (oin/yr) ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 9 5,568 215,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 1987 0 9,720 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 13,649 1988 v 12,465 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 0 1,273 1,012 14,750 1989 0 19,382 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 0 1,391 1,012 21,785 1990 18,675 0 2,075 173 0.875 151 0.00 ° 151 1,275 1,426 1991 19,842 0 2,205 184 0.892 164 0.00 oO 164 1,275 1,439 1992 24,012 0 2,335 195 0.910 177 0.00 ° 177 1,275 1,452 1993 183 0 2,465 205 0.928 191 0-00 0 191 1,275 1,466 1994 23,357 0 2,595 216 0.947 205 0.00 ° 205 1,275 1,480 1995 24,533 0 2.726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275 1-704 1996 24,646 0 2,738 228 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1,275 1,920 1997 24,762 oO 2,751 229 1.005 230 0.60 0 230 1,275 1,505 1998 24,880 ° 2,764 230 1.025 236 0.00 0 236 1,275 1,511 1999 25,000 0 2,778 231 1.046 242! 0.00 — 0 242 1,275 1,517 2000 25,122 ° 2,791 233 1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1,943 2001 25,247 0 2,805 234 1.088 254 0.60 ° 254 1,275 1,529 2002 25,375 ° 2,819 235 1.110 261 0.00 ° 261 1,275 1,536 2003 25,505 0 2,834 236 1.132 267 0.00 644 gil 1,275 2,186 2004 25,638 °O 2,849 237 1.154 274 0.92 ° 274 1,275 1,549 2005 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 ° 281 1,275 1,556 2006 25,773 ° 2,864 239 1.178 28) 0.00 3,920 4,201 1,275 5.476 2007 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2,031 1,275 3,306 2008 25,773 ° 2,864 239 1.178 281 2.50 oO 281 1,275 1,556 2009 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2010 25,773 O 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 ° 28) 1,275 1,556 2012 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 oO 281 1,275 1,556 2012 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 oO 281 1,275 1,556 2023 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 O14 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 oO 281 1,275 1,556 2015 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 4gl 1,275 1,766 2016 PALTV ° 2,864 239 1-178 281 0.30 420 701 1,275 1,976 2017 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 2018 25,773 oO 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 oO 281 1,275 1,556 2019 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2020 25,773 ° 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1/275 1,976 2021 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 oO 281 1,275 1,556 2022 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 - 281 0.00 ° 281 1,275 1,556 2023 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1,275 2,200 20274 25,773 ° 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.92 0 281 1,275 1,556 2025 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV: $85,965 ; ; ( a: OTT =: 1k =_ a UNALASKA/DUTCH HARDOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GROTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT el ~---------~----------- + = ——- TOTAL ‘TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL OsM SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cost cost cost YEAR (Muh/yr ) ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 ° 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 0 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 1987 0 11,042 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2-917 1,012.14, 971 1988 0 18,018 18,162 1,514 0.842 1,273 2.50 0 1,273 1,012 20,303 1989 0 23,264 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 0 1,391 1,012 25,667 1990 18,675 0 2,075 173° 0.875 isl 0.00 ° Sl 1275. 1,426 199) 19,842 0 2,205 184 = 0.892 164 0.00 0 164 «1,275 1,439 1992 21,012 0 2.335 195 0.910 177 0.00 ° 177 1,275 1,452 1993 22,183 0 2,465 205 0.928 191 0.00 0 191-1275 1, 466 3994 23,357 o 2.595 216 0.947 205 0.00 ° 205 1,275. 1,480 1995 24,532 ° 2,726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275. 1,704 1996 24,646 ° 2.738 228 = 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1,275 1,920 1997 24,762 0 2,751 229 -1.005 230 0.60 ° 2300 «14275. 1,505 1998 24,880 ° 2.764 230 1.025 236 0.00 ° 236 0«1,275. 1,511 1999 23,000 0 2,778 231 1.046 242! 0.00 0 2420 «1,275. 1,517 7000 25,122 ° 2,791 233. -1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1,943 2001 23,247 ° 2,805 234 1.088 254 0.60 0 254 = 142751529 2002 23,375 ° 2,819 235 «1.110 261 0.00 0 261 4 =1-275 1/536 2003 23,505 0 2,834 236 © -1.132 267 0.00 644 911 14275-2186 2004 25,638 0 2,849 237.0 «1.154 274 0.92 o 274 «1,275 1,549 2005 25,773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.00 0 281 91275. 1,556 2 54773 o 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.00 3,920 4,201 16275 5,476 23,773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2,031 1,275 3,306 2008 25,773 o 2,864 239°«1.178 281 2.50 0 28. «162751556 2009 23,773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.00 281 «1/275 = 1,556 2010 25,773 0 2,864 239° «1.178 281 0.00 0 281 «1/275. 1,556 2011 1773 0 2,864 2391-178 281 0.00 0 281 4 =1,275 1,556 2012 25,773 o 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.00 0 281 «1-275 1,556 2013 23,773 ° 2,864 239° 0«1.178 281 0.00 0 281 4 81,275 = 1,556 2014 25,773 0 2,864 239° «:1.178 281 0.00 0 281 «1,275 1,556 2015 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 491 1,275 1,766 2016 25,773 0 2,864 239° «1.178 281 0.30 420 701 1,275 1,976 2017 25,773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.60 0 281 «1/275 1,556 2038 25,773 0 2,864 2390-12178 281 0.00 0 281 891275 1,556 2019 25,773 0 2,864 239° «1.178 281 0.00 0 281 «1-275. 1,556 7020 25,773 ° 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1,275 1,976 2021 23,773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.60 ) 281 1,275 1,556 2022 23,773 o 2,864 239°«1.178 281 0.00 0 281 91,275. 1,556 2623 24,773 0 2,864 239°«1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1/275 2,200 2024 25,773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.92 ° 281 91,275. 1,556 2025 25,773 0 2,864 239° «1.178 281 0.00 ° 281 1,275 1,556 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) 3 $95,265 LI UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(4)--GDOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) tERMAL, COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT enn ee wee ee ee ae een ene necennemen= TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIE: FUEL. FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTI USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE Cost COST COST COST YEE? “in /yr) ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) Q 0 13,662 1-139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 oO 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 © 12,364 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 16,293 9 23,570 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 oO 1,273 1,012 25,855 © 27,145 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 0 1,391 1,012 29,548 18,675 0 2,075 173 0.875 151 0.00 o 151 1,275 1,426 : 19,84? 0 2,205 184 0.892 164 0.00 ° 164 1,275 1,439 1992 21,032 0 2,335 195 0.910 177 0.00 0 177 1,275 1,452 1993 22,183 0 2,465 205 0.928 191 0.00 0 191 1,275 1,466 1994 23,357 0 2,595 216 0.947 205 0.00 0 205 1,275 1,480 1995 24,533 0 2-726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275 1,704 1996 24,646 0 2,738 228 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1,275 1,920 199? 24,762 oO 2,751 229 1.005 230 0.60 0 230 1,275 1,505 1998 24,880 oO 2,764 230 1.025 23 0.00 ° 236 1,275 1/511 ea 1999 25,000 0 2,778 231 1-046 24 0.00 0 242 1,275 1,517 rary 2900 23.122 0 2,791 233 1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1,943 oO 2002 25,247 oO 2,805 234 1-088 254 0.60 0 254 1,275 1,529 2092 25,3 0 2,819 235 1.110 261 0.00 oO 261 1,275 1,536 2003 25,505 ° 2,834 236 1.132 267 0.00 644 g1l 1,275 2,186 25,638 0 2,849 237 1.154 274 0.92 0 274 1,275 1,549 25,773 ° 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 25,773 ° 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 3,920 4,201 1,275 5,476 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2,031 1,275 3,306 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 2.50 0 281 1,275 1,556 25,773 oO 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 25.773 ° 2,864 239 1.178 28) 0.00 O 281 1,275 1,556 5 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 Oo 2,864 239 1.178 281 0-00 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 oO 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 Oo 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 491 1,275 1,766 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.30 420 701 1,275 1,976 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 9 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1,275 1,976 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1-178 281 0.00 644 925 1,275 2,200 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.92 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV: $104,563 _ ep } wim = Pe @ a 1985 196 198? 1988 1989 1990 199) 1992 21993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2032 2013 2014 2015 2016 201? 20:18 2019 2020 202) 2022 2023 2024 2 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARPOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDROPOWER COMPONENT DPOPOWER PRODUCTION (ouh/yr) CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) ue uw N CoCOKD OC OC OC OOOO OOOO OOOO OOOO OOOO OC OOO DOOrFOoOSO DIDSEL PRODUCTION (Mvlh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 16,341 17,636 18,933 20,232 21,534 22,838 24,145 24-271 24,399 24-530 24,664 24,800 24,939 25,080 25,225 25,372 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25.523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 FUEL USE (1000 gai) 1,139 1,263 1,388 2,514 1,362 1,470 1,578 1,686 1,795 1,903 2,012 2,023 2,033 2.044 2,055 2-067 2,078 2,090 2,102 2,114 2,127 2.127 2-127 2,127 2.127 2,127 2,127 2.127 2,127 2,127 2,12? 2.127 2,127 2.127 2,127 2,127 2,127 2,127 2,127 2,127 2,127 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE (s/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,168 1,286 1,408 1,535 1,666 1,802 1,944 1,993 2,043 2,09 2.14 2-204 2,261 2,319 2,379 2.441 2,505 2.505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22906992990 OvLoondooaLNOD__OSOUNSD SCOTDTDDSTODTDOCONDOOCOCONUDCOODOOOSCOOOON < < c < 2° ° aww SCONSSOSSOSSOSOSSOSSOSOSOSCSOSSONSSSOSSSSOSCS cost ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 (2,389) ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,168 1,286 1,408 1,535 1,666 3,552 2,154 2,413 2,043 2,096 2,149 2,624 2,261 2,319 3,023 2,441 2,505 6,425 4,255 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 4,255 2,715 2,925 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,925 2,505 2,505 3,149 2,505 2,505 (2,389) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1-012 1,012 1,012 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 3 TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 5,994 3,929 7,856 2,210 2,328 2,450 2.577 2-708 4,594 3,196 3,455 3,085 3,138 3,191 3,666 3,303 3,361 4,065 3,483 3,547 7,467 5,297 3,547 3,547 3,547 3,547 3,547 3,547 5,297 3,757 3,967 3,547 3,547 3,347 3,967 3,547 3,547 4,191 3,547 3,547 (2,389) $80,119 6IT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWFR SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATTVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDROPOWER COMPONENT DIESE!I., COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL OPOWER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL. FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PROMWUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost CcOsT cosT COST YRER (Muh/yr) ($1000) (MwWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 2,009 19R6 0 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0-00 3,920 4,982 1,012 5,994 1987 0 ‘16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5-60 1,750 2,917 1,012 3,929 19OR8 1,762 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2-50 ° 1,273 1,012 4,047 1929 ° 17,281 1,440 0.858 1,235 0.00 0 1,235 1,032 2,267 1999 0 18,576 1,548 0.875 1,354 0.00 oO 1,354 1,032 2,386 199) 0 19,872 1,656 0.892 1,478 0.00 °O 1,478 1,032 2,510 1992 ° 21,172 1,764 0.910 1,606 0.00 oO 1,606 1,032 2,638 2993 0 22,474 1,873 0.928 1,739 0.00 1,750 3,489 1,032 4,521 1994 0 23,778 1,982 0.947 1,877 2-50 °O 1,877 1,032 2,909 1995 0 25,085 2,090 0.966 2,019 0.00 210 2,229 1,032 3,261 1996 0 25,212 2,101 0.985 2,070 0.30 420 2,490 1,032 3,522 1997 0 25,339 2,112 1.005 2,122 0.60 0 2,122 1,032 3,154 1998 oO 25,470 2,123 1.025 2,176 0.00 0 2.176 1,032 3,208 2999 0 25,604 2.134 1.046. 2,241 0.00 0 2,231 1,032 3,263 oO 25,740 2,145 1.067 2,288 0.00 420 2.708 1,032 3,740 0 25,879 2,157 1.088 2,346 0.60 0 2,346 1,032 3,378 oO 26,0270 2,168 1.110 2,406 0.00 ° 2,406 1,032 3,438 ° 26,165 2,180 1.132 2,468 0.00 644 3,112 1,032 4,144 0 26,312 2,193 1.154 2,531 0.92 0 2,531 1,032 3,563 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 oO 2,597 1,032 3,629 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 3,920 6-517 1,032 7,549 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 5.60 1,750 4,347 1,032 5,379 ° 26,463 2,205 1.178 2.597 2.50 ° 2,597 1,032 3,629 ° 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 9 2,597 1,032 3,629 °O 26,463 2,205 1-178 2,597 0.00 O 2,597 1,032 3,629 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 ° 2,597 1,032 3,629 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0-00 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 1,750 4,347 1,032 5,379 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 2-50 } 2,597 1,032 3,629 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 210 2,807 1,032 3,839 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.30 420 3,017 1,032 4,049 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.60 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 oO 26,463 2,205 1-178 2,597 0.00 oO 2,597 1,032 3,629 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 9 26,463 2.205 1.178 2,597 0.00 420 3,017 1,032 4,049 0 26,463 2,203 1.178 2,597 0.60 oO 2,597 1,032 3,629 9 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 °O 2,597 1,032 3,629 ° 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 644 3,241 1,032 4,273 ° 76,463 2,205 1.178 2.597 0.92 0 2.597 1,032 3,629 0 26,463 2,205 1-178 2,597 0.00 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 (2,302) (2,302) (2,302) MPV: $78,201 021 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 7 ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDPOPOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT - - a ee nn ee ccc nccmecese= TOTAL TOTAL DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST COST cosT YEAR ($1000) (Mvih/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 ° 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3.920 4,982 1,012 5,994 1987 0 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 3,929 1988 6,387 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 oO 1,273 1,012 8,672 1989 0 14,167 1,181 0.858 1,013 0.00 ° 1,013 1,062 2,075 2990 oO 15,462 1,288 0.875 1,127 0.00 °O 1,127 1,062 2,189 1991 0 16,759 1,397 0.892 1,246 0.00 0 1,246 1,062 2,308 1992 ° 18,058 1,505 0-910 1,370 0.00 °O 1,370 1,062 2,432 1993 0 19,360 1,613 0.928 1,498 0.00 0 1,498 1,062 2,560 1994 ° 20,664 1,722 0.947 1,631 0.00 1,750 3,381 1,062 4,443 1995 0 21,971 1,831 0.966 1,769 2.50 210 1,979 1,062 3,041 1996 ° 22,097 1,841 0.985 1,814 0.30 420 2.234 1,062 3,296 1997 0 22,225 1,852 1.005 1,861 0.60 0 1,861 1,062 2,923 1998 ° 22,356 1,863 1.025 1,910 0.00 ° 1,910 1,062 2,972 1999 oO 22,490 1,874 1.046 1,966 0.00 0 1,960 1,062 3,022 2000 o 22,626 1,885 1.067 2,011 0.00 420 2,431 1,062 3,493 2001 0 22,765 1,897 1.088 2,064 0.60 0 2,064 1,062 3,126 2002 ° 22,906 1,909 1.110 2,118 0.00 °O 2,118 1,062 3-180 2003 0 23,051 1,921 1.132 2,174 0.00 644 2,818 1,062 3,880 2004 O 23,198 1,933 1.154 2.232 0.92 °o 2-232 1,062 3,294 2005 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 ° 2,291 1,062 3,353 20C6 oO 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 3,920 6,211 1,062 74273 200? 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 5.60 1,750 4,041 1,062 5,103 2098 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 2-50 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2009 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2010 oO 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0-00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2013 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2012 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 oO 2,291 1,062 3,353 20123 0 23,349 : 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 ° 2,291 1,062 3,353 2014 oO 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 1,750 4,041 1,062 5,103 2015 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 2.50 210 2,501 1,062 3,563 29016 ° 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.30 420 2,711 1,062 34773 2017 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.60 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 7018 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2019 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2020 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 420 2,711 1,062 3.773 2021 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.60 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2022 oO 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 to} 2,291 1,062 3,353 2023 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2-291 0.00 644 2,935 1,062 3,997 2024 9 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.92 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2025 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 ° 2,291 1,062 3,353 (2,389) (2,389) (2,389) NPV: $77,733 Tél YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1986 1989 1990 1994 1995 1996 199? 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20:8 2019 2929 2023 27022 2023 2924 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO DIESEL PRODUCTION (MW /yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 27.279 28,721 30.174 31,638 33,113 34,600 34,917 35,246 35,589 35,946 16,317 36,704 37,106 37,525 37,961 38,415 18,415 38,415 48,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38,415 38,415 38,415 28,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38,415 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 2,273 2,393 2,514 2,636 2,759 2,883 2,910 2,937 2,966 2,995 3,026 3,059 3,092 3,127 3,163 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,202 3,201 3,201 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1-046 1.067 1-088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 BASE CASE FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 1,989 2,136 2,289 2,448 2,613 2,785 2,867 2,952 3,040 3,132 3,228 3,327 3,431 3,539 3,652 3,770 3.770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 (mv) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 2-50 0.92 0.00 0.00 5-60 2-50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.60 0.00 2.50 0.92 0.00 COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 (3,964) OsM COsT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 6,084 4,110 4,308 2,775 3,001 3,148 5,051 3,460 3,625 4,007 4,299 3,964 4,052 4,144 4,660 4,339 6,193 5,195 4,664 4,782 8,702 6-532 6,532 4,782 4,782 4,782 6,532 4,782 4,782 4,992 5-202 4,782 4,782 4,782 5,202 4,782 6,532 5,426 4,78? 4,782 (3,964) $97,293 22 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GROTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) GROTHERMAL COMPONENT PRODUCTION (MvIh/yr) oeoooco 16,556 16,556 16-556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 36,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,536 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 ($1000) 0 5,568 7,454 2,948 12,857 CSSCOCODC ODO OOOO OCC OO OC OO OOOO OD OCOD OOOO OSO DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mulh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 10,722 12,165 13,617 15,081 16,557 18.044 18,360 18,690 19,033 19,390 19,761 20,148 20,550 20,969 21,405 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 21,859 FUEL USE (1000 gai) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 894 1,014 1,135 1,257 1,380 1,504 1,530 1,557 1,586 1,616 1.647 1,679 1,713 1,747 1,784 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,822 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 782 905 1,033 1,167 1,307 1,453 1,508 . 1,565 1,62 1,69 1,756 1,827 1,900 1,978 2,059 2,145 2.145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2.145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2/145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2-145 2.145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,145 (mw) ecoooooocoooce gyasssseoauss PLOooo000uNUDDD on uw SSSSSSSsSssssssssssNysssss bhoonvo00000 SCOCONDCODCOCOOCOONNUCOOCOOCONCOCOOCOO OOO ONNU OO 0.92 0.00 cosT ($1000) ° 3,920 1-750 1,750 (3,089) TOTAL CcOsT ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3,296 1,763 782 905 1,033 1,167 1,307 1,663 1,928 1,565 1,626 3,440 2.176 1,827 1,900 2,622 2,059 2,145 6,065 3,895 3,895 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,355 2,565 2,145 2.145 3,895 2,565 2.145 2,145 2,789 2,145 2,145 (3,089) TOTAL O&M cosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,278 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,652 11,564 7,256 15,632 2,057 2,180 2,308 2,442 2-582 2,938 3,203 2,840 2,901 4,715 3,451 3,102 3,175 3,897 3,334 3,420 7,340 5,170 5,170 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,420 3,630 3,840 3,420 3,420 5,170 3,840 3,420 3,420 4,064 3,420 3,420 (3,089) NPV: $100,138 eet UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT ---- ------- +--+ -- ------ -----~---~--- --- = TOTAL TOTAL, CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FU) nO Ti FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT ‘TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost cosT CcOsT YEAR (Mulh/yr ) ($1000) (MWih/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 9 5,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 1987 ° 7,832 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 11,942 2988 0 4,536 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3,296 1,012 8,844 1989 0 14,095 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2-50 0 1,763 1,012 16-870 1990 24,551 0 2.728 227 0.875 199 0.00 oO 199 1,275 1,474 1991 25,849 0 2,872 239 0.892 214 0.00 0 214 1,275 1,489 1992 27,157 ° 3,017 251 0.910 229 0.00 oO 229 1,275 1,504 1993 28,474 0 3,164 264 0.928 245 0.00 oO 245 1,275 1,520 1994 33,113 O 0 O 0.947 oO 0.00 0 0 1,275 1,275 1995 33,113 0 1,488 124 0.966 120 0.00 210 330 1,275 1,605 1996 33,113 0 1,804 150 0.985 148 0.30 420 568 1,275 1,843 1997 33,113 0 2,133 178 1.005 179 0.60 0 179 1,275 1,454 1998 33,113 0 2.476 206 1.025 212 0.00 0 212 1,275 1,487 1999 33,113 0 2,833 236 1.046 247 0.00 0 247 1,275 1,522 2000 33,113 oO 3,205 267 1.067 285 0.00 420 705 1,275 1,980 2001 33,113 0 3,591 299 1.088 326 0.60 ° 326 1,275 1,601 2002 33,113 oO 3,994 “333 1-110 369 0.00 o 369 1,275 1,644 2003 33,113 0 4,412 368 1.132 416 0.00 644 1,060 1,275 2,335 2004 33,113 O 4,848 404 1.154 466 0.92 Oo 466 1,275 1,741 2005 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 $20 1,275 1,795 2006 32,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 3,920 4,440 1,275 5,715 2007 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 5-60 1,750 2-270 1,275 3,545 2008 33,113 ° 5,302 442 1.178 520 2-50 1,750 2,270 1,275 3,545 2009 33,113 ° 5,302 442 1-178 520 2.50 0 520 1,275 1,795 20:0 33,113 ° 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 2032 33,123 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 ° 520 1,275 1,795 2012 BAI 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 °O 520 1,275 1,795 2013 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 2014 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 2015 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 210 730 1,275 2,005 2016 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.30 420 940 1,275 2,215 2017 33,113 0 5,302 7 442 1.178 520 0.60 0 520 1,275 1,795 2018 33,113 O 5,302 442 1.178 $20 0-00 0 520 1,275 1,795 2019 33,113 ° 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 2020 33,313 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 420 940 1,275 2,215 2022 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.60 0 $20 1,275 1,795 2022 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 320 0.00 oO 520 1,275 1,795 2023 33,113 0 5,302 4A2 1.178 520 0.00 644 1,164 1,275 2,439 2024 33,113 ° 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.92 ° 520 1,275 1,795 2025 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) FILE: A2ECON04 NPV: $77,837 vet YEAR 1985 1986 198? 1988 1989 2990 1993 1992 1993 1994 199s 1996 1997 1998 1999 2900 200) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202) 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT (mulh/yr ) eoooo 24,551 25,849 27.157 28,474 29,802 31,140 32,425 31,722 32,030 32,351 32,686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,165 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34.573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 CONSTRUCTION costs ($1000) 0 5,568 8,210 6,124 15,333 ecooDpKO oO COCO COC OOOO OOOO OOO CO OOoD OC OOOO DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3.492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3,711 3,753 3.796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,84) 3,841 3,84) 3,84. USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 304 ng 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 (mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 eococeC COC OCOD OOO ONNU OOOO OOO OOOO OOOO DOOMEETOMAVODFOFCOOUUADOLSOADHOALOSOO SSS SSS SSS SSS SSSS SSS SSNS SSSSSSsessss cost ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 0 (1,864) ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3,296 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 377 4,297 2,127 2,127 377 377 377 377 377 377 587 797 377 377 377 797 377 377 1,021 377 377 (1,864) cosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275. 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 3 TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,652 12,320 10,432 18,108 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2,273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2-296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $80,031 S21 URNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODER.NTE GROWTH SCENARIO OTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIFSEL COMPONENT —— --- a a nn rr TOTAL CONSTRUCTION FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cosT cost YEAR (MWh/yr) ($1000) (Mwh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 0 5,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 0 8,588 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 9 7,712 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3,296 1,012 9 16,571 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,763 1,012 24,351 0 2,728 227 0.875 199 0.00 oO 199 1,275 25,849 0 2,872 239 0.892 214 0.00 ° 214 1,275 27.157 ° 3,017 251 0.910 229 0.00 ° 229 1,275 20.474 0 3,164 264 0.928 245 0.00 0 245 1,275 29,802 0 3,311 276 0.947 261 0.00 oO 261 1,275 31,340 0 3,460 288 0.966 279 0.00 210 489 1,275 31.425 9 3,492 291 0.985 287 0.30 420 707 1,275 31,722 0 3,325 294 1.005 295 0.60 0 295 1,275 32,030 9 3.559 297 1.025 3p4 0.00 oO 304 1,275 32,35) 0 3,595 300 1.046 313 0.00 0 313 1-275 32,686 0 3,632 303 1.067 323 0.00 420 743 1,275 33,034 0 3,670 306 1.088 333 0.60 oO 333 1,275 33,396 Qo 3,711 309 1.110 343 0.00 oO 343 1,275 33,773 0 3,753 313 1-132 354 0.00 644 998 1,275 24,165 ° 3.796 316 1.154 365 0.92 O 365 1.275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00° oO 377 1,275 34,573 9 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 3,920 4,297 1,275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 5.60 1,750 2,127 1,275 34,573 ° 3,841 320 1.178 377 2.50 1,750 2,127 1,275 34,573 0 3,84) 320 1.178 377 2-50 0 377 1,275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 377 1,275 ‘ 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1.275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 ° 377 1,275 34,373 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 210 $87 1,275 34,573 9 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.30 420 797 1,275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.60 0 377 1,275 34,573 9 3,842 320 1.178 377 0.00 oO 377 1,275 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 34,373 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 420 797 1,275 34 573 0 3,84) 320 1.178 377 0.60 0 377 1,275 34,573 O 3,842 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 34,573 0 3,84) 320 1.178 377 0.00 644 1,021 1,275 $4,373 ° 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.92 0 377 1,275 34,573 0 3,842 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 (1,864) (1,864) NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 12,698 12,020 19,346 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2.273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $82,798 921 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWDR SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) GROTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GLOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUC! FUEL, FUEL PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cost VEER (mh/yr) ($1000) (Muh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mi) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 9 3,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 ° 8,966 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 ° 9,300 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3296 ° 17,809 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,763 24,552 ° 2.728 227. (0.875 199 0.00 0 199 25,869 0 2,872 239 = 0.892 214 0.00 0 214 27.357 ° 3,017 251 0.910 229 0.00 oO 229 28,474 0 3,164 264 = 0.928 245 0.00 0 245 29,802 0 3,312 276 = 0.947 261 0.00 o 261 32-140 0 3,460 288 = 0.966 279 0.00 210 489 1,425 0 3,492 291 = 0.985 287 0.30 420 707 31,722 ° 3,525 294 1.005 295 0.60 0 295 32,930 0 3,559 297 1.025 304 0.00 o 304 32,351 0 3,595 300 1.046 313 0.00 0 313 32,686 0 3,632 303 -1.067 323 0.00 420 743 33,034 0 3,670 306 1.088 333 0.60 0 333 33,396 0 3,713 309 1.110 343 0.00 0 343 33,773 0 3,753 313 1.132 354 0.00 644 998 34,165 0 3,796 316 «1.154 365 0.92 ° 365 34,573 0 3,84) 320-1178 377 0.00 0 377 34,573 0 3,841 320.0-«1.178 377 0.00 3,920 4,297 34,573 0 3,84) 3201.78 377 5.60 1,750 2,127 34,573 ° 3,841 320. «1.178 377 2.50 1,750 2,127 34,573 0 3,841 320. «1.178 377 2.50 0 377 24,573 0 3,841 320.-«1.178 377 0.00 0 377 3 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 34,573 0 3.84) 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 34,573 0 3,84) 320. -1.178 377 0.00 0 377 34,573 ° 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 34,573 0 3,84) 320 1.178 377 0.00 210 587 24,373 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.30 420 797 34,573 0 3,84} 320 1.178 377 0.60 0 377 34,573 0 3,841 2200-12178 377 0.00 0 377 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 34,573 ° 3,84) 320 1-178 W77 0.00 420 797 4 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.60 0 377 44 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 oO 377 24 0 3,842 320 1.178 377 0.00 644 1,021 a4 QO 3,841 320 1.178 377 9.92 0 377 34 0 384° 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 (1,864) (1,864) TOTAL OSM COsT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 3 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,652 13,076 13,608 20,584 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2-018 1,608 1,618 2,273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1-652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $85,565 Let ° 0 0 0 0 24,551 25,849 27.157 28,474 23,296 33.773 24,165 34,573 24,573 34,573 34,373 34,573 24,573 34,573 34.573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,5723 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 3A, 34,573 24,973 34,573 COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 9,344 10,888 19,047 ecsccseoopoD OC OC OOOO OC OOO COC ODO OOOO COO OC OS UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE Al 6)-— DIESTL PRODUCTION (MvIh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2,728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,321 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3.723 3,753 3.796 3,841 3,842 3,841 3,84) 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,84) 3,84! 3,841 3,84! 3,843 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 231 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1-088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 L.138 1.178 (OTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 304 313 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377. 377 377 377 377 377 377 (mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2-50 (----- -----------------) ssssssssuussesessszsssaussssss SCSOSOSSSSSSCSOSCSGONGSOCSSOSGSCOSOSSS coo ooo ooo 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cosT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 ° 420 420 0 0 644 Oo 0 (1,864) TOTAL TOTAL O&M cosT cosT ($1000) ($1000) 997 1,012 5,072 1,012 3,098 1,012 3,296 1,012 1,763 1,012 199 1,275 214 1,275 229 1,275 245 1,275 261 1,275 489 1,275 707 1,275 295 1,275 304 1,275 313 1,275 743 1,275 333 1,275 343 1,275 998 1,275 365 1,275 377 1,275 4,297 1,275 2,127 1,275 2,127 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 587 1,275 797 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 797 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 1,021 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 (1,864) NPV: an TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 13,454 15,196 21,822 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2,273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,632 1,652 (1,864) $88,332 82 2 ne Nv N SS0606 JBOSS © NYVNN NNN WALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 3(1)---GEROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) ° DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL FUEL, FUEL, O&M SYSTEM PPODUCTION COSTS USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT COST cosT CcOosT (Mueyyr) ($1000) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 0 5,568 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 0 8,398 1,603 0.841 1,348 5-60 1,750 3,098 1,012 12,508 °O 6.913 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3,296 1,012 11,221 0 15,501 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 ° 1,763 1/012 18,276 26,411 ° 72 0.875 63 0.00 °O 63 1,275 1,338 26,411 ° 192 0.892 172 0.00 0 172 1,275 1,447 26-411 oO 314 0.910 285 0.00 ° 285 1,275 1,560 26,411 ° 436 0.928 404 0.00 0 404 1,275 1,679 26,411 °O 558 0.947 529 0.00 0 529 1,275 1,804 26,411 ° 682 0.966 659 0.00 210 869 1,275 2,144 26-411 0 709 0.985 698 0.30 420 1,118 1,275 2,393 26,411 0 736 1.005 740 0.60 °o 740 1,275 2,015 26,411 ° 765 1.025 784 0.00 0 784 1,275 2,059 26,411 0 795 1.046 831 0.00 0 831 1,275 2,106 26-411 ° 826 1-067 880 0.00 420 1,300 1,275 2.575 26,411 0 858 1.088 933 0.60 ° 933 1,275 2-208 26,411 0 891 1.110 989 0.00 0 989 1,275 2,264 76,411 0 926 1-132 1,048 0.00 644 1,692 1/275 2,967 26,411 0 962 1.154 1,lll 0.92 oO 1,111 1,275 2.386 26,411 0 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 ° 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,432 9 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 3,920 5,098 1,275 6.373 26,412 0 1,000 1.178 1,178 5-60 1,750 2,928 1,275 4,203 26,411 oO 1,000 1.178 1,178 2-50 1,750 2,928 1,275 4,203 26,411 0 1,000 1.178 1,178 2.50 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1-275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 °o 1,178 1-275 2,453 26/431 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 °o 1,178 1,275 2.453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 210 1,388 1,275 2,663 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.30 420 1,598 1,275 2,873 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1-178 0.60 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,41) 0 212,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1/178 1,275 2,453 26,431 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 420 1,598 1,275 2,873 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.60 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26.41) ° 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 oO 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 644 1,822 1,275 3,097 26,411 0 12,004 2,000 1.178 1,178 0.92 ° 1,178 1,275 2,453 26/411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 oO 1,178 1,275 2,453 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) NPV: $90,315 621 GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION KIDUCTION CcOosTS (mwh/yx ) ($1000) 0 5,568 9,720 12,465 19,382 ecco ° 24,551 25,849 27,157 28,474 29,802 31,140 32,425 31,722 42,030 32,351 32,686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34.165 34,573 44,573 24,573 34,573 34,573 34,373 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34-573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 ecooococ oC OOO COC OCC OO OD OCOD O OOOO OKO OOOO So ALTERNATIVE R(2)---GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3-525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3,711 3,753 3.796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,842 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1-178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 ALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COsT ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 304 313 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 77 377 377 377 377 SCHEDULE (mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 ocoooo°o 644 o 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 eoooo°o 420 0 ° 644 0 0 (1,864) TOTAL O&M COST COST ($1000) ($1000) 997 1,012 5.072 1,012 3,098 1,012 3,296 1,012 1,763 1,012 199 1,275 214 1,275 229 1,275 245 1,275 261 1,275 489 1,275 707 1,275 295 1,275 304 1,275 313 1,275 743 1,275 333 1,275 343 1,275 998 1,275 365 1,275 377 1,275 4,297 1,275 2,127 1,275 2,127 1.275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 387 1,275 797 1-275 377 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 797 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 1,021 1,275 377 1,275 377 1,275 (1,864) NPV: a= TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,652 13,830 16,773 22,157 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2,273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $90,328 O€T 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20035 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GEOTHERM&L COMPONENT OTHERMAL, PRODUCTION (Muh/yr ) eooceo 24,551 25,849 27.157 28,474 29,802 Bi, tad 31,425 31,722 32,030 32,351 32,686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,165 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,578 $4,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 11,042 18,018 23,264 eooopoC ODO oC OC OCC OO OCOD OOOO OC OO OCOD OOOD DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2,728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3,711 3,753 3.796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,843 3,841 3.841 3,84) 3,841 3,84) FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0-910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1-178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT CcOsT ($1000) 997 1-152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 304 313 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 SCHEDULE (raw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 ° a o aALOoOoQOOONUUADOLDOND eooooOKCOONNUOOOOOOCOSO SCSOSSSSSSSCSCSOSGOSONOSOSSOS ooo eoo oos 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cosT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 oooo0oo 420 644 °O 0 (1,864) TOTAL CosT ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3,296 1.763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 377 4,297 2,127 2.127 377 377 377 377 377 377 587 797 377 377 377 797 377 377 1,021 377 377 (1,864) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 15-152 22,326 26,039 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2,273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $99,628 Tel UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE 3(4)-- XOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT — ‘TOTAL TOTAL. DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM . PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcosT cosT COST cost VEER tlh /y ($1000) (Muh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (MW) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ° 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 9 5,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11-652 0 12,364 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 16-474 9 23,570 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3,296 1,012 27,878 0 27,145 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2-50 0 1,763 1,012 29,920 24,551 oO 2,728 227 0.875 199 0.00 ° 199 1,275 1,474 25,849 0 2,872 239 0.892 214 0.00 ° 214 1,275 1,489 270357 0 3,017 251 0.910 229 0.00 °O 229 1,275 1,504 28,474 oO 3,164 264 0.928 245 0.00 0 245 1,275 1,520 29,802 0 3,311 276 0.947 261 0.00 ° 261 1,275 1,536 31,140 0 3,460 288 0.966 279 0.00 210 489 1,275 1,764 34,425 oO 34492 291 0.985 287 0.30 420 707 1,275 1,982 31,722 0 3,525 294 1.005 295 0.60 0 295 1,275 1,570 17,030 0 3,559 297 1.025 304 0.00 oO 304 1,275 1,579 32,331 0 3,595 300 1.046 313 0.00 ° 313 1,275 1,588 32,686 0 3-632 303 1.067 323 0-00 420 743 1,275 2,018 33,034 0 3,670 : 306 1.088 333 0.60 Oo 333 1,275 1,608 33.396 oO 3,711 309 1.110 343 0.00 oO 343 1,275 1,618 33.773 0 3,753 313 1.132 354 0.00 644 998 1,275 2,273 34,165 9 3,796 316 1.154 365 0.92 ° 365 1,275 1,640 34,573 0 3,842 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 44,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 3,920 4,297 1,275 5,572 34,572 0 3,843 320 1.178 377 5-60 1,750 2,127 1,275 3,402 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 2-50 1,750 2,127 1,275 3,402 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 2.50 0 377 1,275 1,652 34,573 0 3,84} 320 1.178 377 0.00 oO 377 1,275 1,652 34,572 0 3,84) 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 14,3573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 ° 377 1,275 1,652 20% 34,4573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 2014 44,573 ° 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 2025 34,573 0 3,84) 320 1.178 377 0.00 210 587 1,275 1,862 2016 24,573 0 3,84) 320 1.178 377 0.30 420 797 1,275 2,072 2017 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.60 0 377 1,275 1,652 2OLB 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 ° 377 1,275 1,652 2019 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 2929 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 420 797 1,275 2,072 2021 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.60 ° 377 1-275 1,652 2022 34,573 ° 3,841 320 1-178 377 0.00 ° 377 1,275 1,652 2023 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 644 1,021 1,275 2,296 2024 q 9 3,842 320 1.178 377 0.92 ° 377 1,275 1,652 2075 0 3,843 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) NPV: $108,926 2€T YEAR 1985 1986 198" 1988 1989 1990 1992 1992 1994 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200! 200? 2003 2004 2005 7006 2007 2008 2009 2910 2011 2012 2013 7014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2071 2022 2023 2024 2025 MOWER ICT oO 9 0 ° 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.114 3,114 3,114 3,114 34114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.114 3,124 3.314 3,114 3,214 3,114 2,214 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 DPOPOWER COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 5.57 ecoep oe ooo Do OOOO OOOO OC OOOO OC OOO COO COCO OrFOCS UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL, PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16.435 19,233 22,058 21,550 24,165 25,607 27,060 28,524 29,999 31,486 31,803 32,132 32,475 32,832 33,203 33,590 33,992 34,411 34,847 35,301 35,30) 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,30! 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 35,301 USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 1,796 2,014 2,134 2,255 2,377 2,500 2,624 2,650 2,678 2,706 2,736 2,767 2,799 2,833 2,868 2,904 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 24942 2,942 2,942 2,942 2,942 21942 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE (s/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1-110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,540 1,762 1,904 2,053 2.207 2.368 2,535 2,611 2,691 2.794 2,861 2.951 3,045 3,143 3,246 3,352 3,464 3,464 3,464 3.464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 ° 2° 3° SSOCOODODOCONDOONONUCODCOOC OSC OOC CONGO O eLvoongoooavovooovouacowoongoooavouvdd SSCSSSSSSSSSCOSOONSSGSCOSSOSGOSCSGOCSS oS OoOnooos COST ($1000) (2,652) COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 1,546 3,290 1,762 1,904 2,053 3,957 2,368 2,745 3,031 2,691 2,774 2,861 3,371 3,045 3,143 3,890 3,352 3,464 7,384 5,214 3-464 5,214 3,464 3,464 3,464 5,214 3,464 3,674 3,884 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,884 3,464 3,464 4-108 3,464 3,464 (2,652) TOTAL O&M CcosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 3 TOTAL SYSTEM COsT ($1000) 2,009 6.084 4,110 8.129 4,332 2,804 2,946 3,095 4,999 3,410 3,787 4,073 3,733 3,816 3,903 4,413 4,087 4,185 4,932 4,394 4,506 8,426 6,256 4,506 6,256 4,506 4,506 4,506 6,256 4,506 4,716 4,926 4,506 4,506 4,506 4,926 4,506 4,506 5,150 4,506 4,506 (2,652) $96,484 eel YEAR 1985 r9Rn6 1987 1988 1989 1999 199 1992 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DUCTION (mulh/yr) ooo ° 2-174 2,174 2,176 2.374 2/174 2174 174 246174 274 2.174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2.174 2/174 21174 21174 2,174 2,174 2,174 2,374 2.174 2/174 2,174 2,174 20174 2,174 2,174 24174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2.174 2-174 2.174 24174 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM a) a 0 oO 0 2 0 °O 0 0 0 O 0 0 ° 0 0 0 ° 0 ° 0 O oO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 ° 0 oO ° ° ° ° ° DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mulh/yr ) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 22,490 25,105 26,547 28,000 29,464 30,939 32,426 32,743 33,072 33,415 33,772 34,143 34,530 34,932 35,351 35,787 36,241 36,241 36,241 36,241 36,241 36,24) 36,241 36,24) 36,24) 36,241 36,241 36,242 36,241 36,241 36,241 36,241 36,241 36,24) 36,24) 36,241 36,241 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 1,874 2,092 2,212 2,333 2,455 2,578 2,702 2,729 2,756 2,785 2,814 2,845 2,878 2,911 2,946 2,982 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 34020 3,020 3,020 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL, PRICE (s/qal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,608 1,830 1,974 2,124 2,280 2,442 2,610 2,689 2,770 2,895 2,943 3,035 3,130 3-230 3-334 3,443 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3-556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 (Mw) 0.60 NOOO COST ($1000) ° 3,920 1,750 ° 1,750 644 1,750 0 (4,139) COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 1,546 3,358 1,830 1,974 3,874 2-280 2,442 2,820 3,109 2,770 2,855 2,943 3,455 3,130 3,230 3,978 5,193 3,556 7,476 5,306 3,556 5,306 3,556 3,556 5,306 3,556 3,556 3,766 3,976 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,976 3,556 3,556 4,200 5,306 3,556 (4,139) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 3 TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 6,084 4,110 4,320 4,390 2,862 3,006 4,906 3,312 3,474 3,852 4,141 3,802 3,887 3,975 4,487 4,162 4,262 5,010 6,225 4,588 8,508 6,338 4,588 6,338 4,588 4,588 6,338 4,588 4,588 4,798 5,008 4,588 4,588 4,588 5,008 4,588 4,588 5,232 6,338 4,588 (4,139) $95,518 vET 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 3997 1998 1999 2900 2002 2902 200% 2004 2005 2006 2007 7008 2009 20:0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2029 2021 2072 2023 2074 2028 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDROPOWER COMPONENT HYDROPOW PRODUCTION (MWn/yr ) coco 5,288 5,788 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 3,288 5,288 5, 288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,238 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 288 1288 3,288 5,288 3,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 1288 1288 5,288 5,288 5 wn ut CONSTRUCTION CcOsTS ($1000) 6,38 a -- - e 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 19,376 21,991 23,433 24,886 26,350 27,825 29,312 29,629 29,958 30,301 30,658 31,029 31,416 31,818 32,237 32,673 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 FUEL, USE (1000 ga.) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 1,615 1,833 1,953 2,074 2,196 2,319 2,443 2,469 2,497 2,525 2,555 2,586 2,618 2,652 2,686 2.723 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2,761 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,385 1,603 1,743 1,888 2,039 2,196 2,360 2,433 2,509 2,583 2,671 2.758 2,848 2,942 3,041 3.143 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2-50 0.00 0.00 awuooe ecoooo0ecCo CONDOS Nneoooooooooscs e@eoon000 So cost ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 °O 1,750 (2,739) ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 1,546 3,135 1,603 1,743 1,888 2-039 3,946 2.570 2,853 2,509 2,589 2,671 3,178 2,848 2,942 3,685 3,143 3,251 7A 5,001 3-251 5,001 3,251 3,25) 3,251 3,251 5,001 3,461 3,671 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,671 3,251 3,251 3,895 3,251 3,251 (2,739) TOTAL 08M cosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 3 7 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 6,084 4/110 8,945 4,197 2,665 2,805 2,950 3,101 5,008 3,632 3,915 3,571 3,651 3,733 4,240 3,910 4,004 4,747 4,205 4,313 8,233 6,063 4,313 6,063 4,313 4,313 4,313 4/313 6,063 4,523 4,733 4/313 4,313 4,313 4,733 4,313 4,313 4,957 4.313 4,313 (2.739) $94,011 SET YEAR 2985 1986 1987 1968 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2995 1996 199? 1998 1999 2000 2001 200? 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?0:0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANAI.YSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO DIESEL, PRODUCTION (Muh /yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 32,265 35,104 37,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 50,171 54,508 38,376 62,467 66,804 71,417 76,334 81,422 86,885 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,763 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 FUEL, USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 2,689 2,925 3,157 3,413 3,694 3,974 4,181 4,542 4,865 5,206 5,567 5,951 6,361 6,785 7,240 7,730 7,730 7,730 74730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7,730 7,730 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 BASE CASE FUEL cosT ($1000) 997 “1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 2,352 2/611 2,874 3,169 “3,499 3,839 4,120 4,565 4,987 5,443 5,937 6,474 7,059 7,680 8,359 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,203 ADDITION/REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE, cost (Mw) ($1000) 0.00 0 0.00 3,920 5-60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 ° 0.00 1,750 2-50 ° 0.00 1,750 2-50 O 0.00 210 0.30 2.170 3.10 1,750 2.50 0 0-00 1,750 2.50 2,170 3-10 ° 0.00 1,750 2.50 2,394 3.42 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 1,750 2-50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 210 0.30 2.170 3.10 1,750 2.50 9 0.00 1,750 2.50 2.170 3.10 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 2,394 3.42 1.750 2.50 0 (12,627) O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 14012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 TOTAL SYSTEM CcOsT ($1000) 2,009 6,119 4,228 4,503 4,800 3.364 5,373 3,886 5,931 4,511 5,061 7,302 7,327 5,999 8,205 9,119 7,486 9/821 11,086 11,121 10/115 14,035 11,865 11,865 11,865 10,115 11,865 10/115 11,865 10,115 10,325 12,285 11,865 10,115 11,865 12,285 10,115 11,865 12,509 11,865 10,115 (12,627) NPV: $165,819 9ET UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT ee nanan nena He - == 5+ == = $e nnn en TOTAL TOTAL GHOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT § TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE —- PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT cosT cosT cost YEAR (mMuh/yr ) ($1000) (Mwh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 2,009 0 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 1,012 11,687 0 7,454 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1/012 11,682 ° 2,948 24,844 2,070 0.841 1,741 2.50 1,750 3,491 1,012 7,451 ° 12,857 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 0 2,038 1,012 15,907 16,556 0 15,709 1,309 0.875 1,145 0.00 ° 1,145 1,275 2,420 16,556 ° 18,547 1,546 0.892 1,379 0.00 1,750 3,129 1,275 4,404 16,556 ° 21,328 1,777 0.910 1,618 2.50 ° 1,618 1275 2,893 16,556 0 24,399 2,033 0.928 1,888 0.00 1,750 3,638 1,275 4,913 16,556 ° 27.775 2.315 0.947 2,192 2.50 0 2,192 1,275 3,467 16,536 0 31,134 2,594 0.966 2,506 0.00 1,960 4,466 1,275 5,741 16,556 0 33,614 2,801 0.985 2.760 2.80 420 3,180 1,275 4,455 16,556 0 37,952 3,163 1.005 3,179 0.60 1,750 4,929 1,275 6,204 16,556 ° 41,819 3,485 1.025 4573 2.50 ° 3.573 1,275 4,848 16,556 ° 45,911 3,826 1.046 4,000 0.00 1,750 5,750 1,275 7,025 16,556 0 50,248 4,187 1.067 4,466 2.50 2.170 6,636 1,275 7,911 16,556 0 54,861 4,572 1.088 4,973 3.10 1,750 6,723 1,275 7,998 16,3556 ° 59,778 4,981 1.110 5,528 2.50 ° 5,528 1,275 6,803 16,556 0 64,866 5,405 1.132 6,118 0.00 2,394 8,512 1,275 9,787 6,556 ° 70,329 5,861 1.154 6.766 3.42 1,750 8,516 1,275 9,791 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 2.50 0 7,478 1,275 8,753 16,556 0 76,209 6.351 1.178 7,478 0.00 3,920 11,398 1,275 12,673 16,356 ° 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 5.60 1,750 9,228 1,275 10,503 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1-178 7,478 2.50 1,750 9,228 1,275 10,503 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 2.50 Oo 7,478 1,275 8,753 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 0.00 ° 7,478 1,275 8,753 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 0.00 1,750 9,228 1,275 10,503 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7.478 2.50 0 7,478 1,275 8,753 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 0.00 1750 9,228 1,275 10,503 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7.478 2.50 ° 7,478 1,275 8,753 16,556 ° 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 0.00 1,960 9,438 1,275 10,713 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 2.80 420 7,898 1,275 9,173 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 0.60 1,750 9,228 1,275 10/503 16,556 ° 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 2.50 ° 7.478 1,275 8,753 16,556 ° 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 0.00 1,750 9,228 1,275 10,503 16/556 ° 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 2.50 2.170 9,648 1,275 10,923 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 3.10 1,750 9,228 1,275 10,503 16,556 0 76,209 6,35] 1.178 7,478 2.50 0 7,478 1,275 8,753 16,556 0 76,209 6/351 1.178 7,478 0.00 2,394 9,872 1,275. 11,147 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 3.42 1,750 9,228 1,275 10/503 16,556 0 76,209 6,351 1.178 7,478 2.50 0 7,478 1,275 8,753 (12,102) (12,102) (12,102) NPV: $168,321 LET 2022 2023 2024 2025 FILE: UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE (2). -GROTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) GPOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (MMin/yr) eooo°o 29,039 33,113 33,113 33,123 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,133 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,133 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 343.113 33,113 43,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 43,133 33,113 A2FCON1} costs ($1000) 0 5,568 7,832 4,536 14,095 eooCoO COCO OC OC OC OOOO OOOO OOO COO OBC OCC OOo DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 1,991 4,771 7,843 11,218 14,577 17,058 21,396 25,263 29,354 33,692 38,305 43,221 48,309 53,772 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 39,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL ANDDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 269 166 398 654 935 1,215 1,422 1,783 2,105 2,446 2,808 3,192 3.602 4,026 4,481 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 148 362 607 885 1,173 1,401 1,792 ie 7558 2,994 3,473 3,997 4,556 5.173 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 (Mw) COOUUROHOHUHONHAw®OHO.OOUUADO NONNWONNONONOSCOCONNUCNONNYWONNON ‘ neonNanouoedc Se SSS SSeS SSS SSS SSS SSSR SSeS SSS SS SSSSSEsssss CNOCCSCONNWUOCSO CcOsT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 1,750 Oo 1,960 420 1,750 1,750 0 2,170 1,750 1,750 644 1,750 0 (11,402) (11,402) CcosT ($1000) 997 5,107 3-216 3,491 2,038 235 148 362 2,357 885 3,133 1,821 3,542 3,908 2,558 5,164 5,223 5,747 5,200 6,923 5,854 9,774 7,604 7,604 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 7,604 5,854 7,814 6,274 7,604 7,604 5,854 8,024 7,604 7,604 6,498 7,604 5,854 TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM CcosT ($1000) 2,009 11,687 12,060 9,039 17,145 1,510 1,423 1,637 3,632 2,160 4,408 3,096 4,817 5,183 3,833 6,439 6,498 7.022 6,475 8,198 7,129 11,049 8,879 8,879 7,129 74129 7,129 7,129 8,879 7.129 9,089 7,549 8,879 8,879 7/129 9,299 8,879 8,879 7,773 8,879 7,129 (11,402) $144,204 SET YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1993 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2029 202} 2022 2023 2024 2025 GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GBEOTUERMAL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) cooo 0 29,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49.669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 CONSTRUCTION costs ($1000) 0 5,568 8,210 6,124 15,333 (oN ------ --------- ----- UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh /yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4.433 4,769 502 4,839 8.707 12,798 17,135 21,748 26,665 31,753 37,216 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 42 403 726 1,066 1,428 1,812 2,222 2,646 3-101 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 384 4. 405 744 us 1,523 1,972 2,466 2,995 3,580 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 0.00 3.10 2.50 2.50 3.42 0.00 oQauyvrovoruvoocoon onoscoocooosooososososgS OWUNNYVONOWONOCOOOON CcOsT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 ocoooo (10,527) (10,527) COST ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 2,038 235 261 287 317 2,100 594 2,211 405 2,494 1/115 3,693 3.722 4,216 5,389 3/580 4,229 8,149 5,979 5,979 4,229 4,229 4,229 4.229 4,229 5,979 4439 6.399 4,229 5,979 4,229 6,399 5,979 5,979 6,623 4.229 4,229 TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,687 12,438 10,627 18, 383 1,510 1,536 1-562 1,592 3,375 1,869 3,486 1,680 3,769 2,390 4,968 4,997 5,491 6,664 4,855 5,504 9,424 7,254 74254 5,504 5,504 5,504 5,504 5,504 7,254 5,714 7,674 5,504 74254 5,504 76674 7,254 7,254 7,898 5,504 5,504 (10,527) NPV: $124,671 6€T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARDOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GHOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL, FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL PRONUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COsT YEAR (Mh /yr ) ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 9 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 0 8,588 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 9 7.712 24,844 2,070 0.841 1,741 2.50 1,750 3,491 0 16,571 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 0 2,038 29,039 ° 3,227 269 0.875 , 235 0.00 0 235 31,593 ° 3,510 293 0.892 261 0-00 0 261 34,096 oO 3,788 316 0.910 287 0.00 oO 287 36,860 0 4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 0 317 19,898 0 4,433 369 0.947 350 0.00 oO 350 42,921 0 4,769 397 0-966 "384 0.00 210 594 45,154 ° 5,017 418 0.985 412 0.30 2.170 2.582 49,058 0 5,451 454 1.005 457 3.10 0 457 32,538 ° 5,838 486 1.025 1499 0.00 1,750 2.249 56.220 0 6,247 521 1.046 544 2.50 1,750 2,294 66.226 0 579 48 1-067 51 2.50 420 471 66,226 0 5,192 433 1.088 47. 0.60 | 1,750 2,221 66,226 0 10,108 B42 1.110 935 2.50 1,750 2,685 66,226 0 15,396 1,266 1.132 1,433 2.50 2,394 3,827 66,226 0 20,660 1,722 1.154 1,988 3.42 1,750 3.738 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 Oo 2,604 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 3,920 6,524 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 5.60 1,750 4,354 66.226 oO 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 1,750 4,354 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 ° 2,604 66,226 0 26-540 2-212 1.178 2,604 0.00 i) 2,604 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 0 2,604 66,226 0 26,540 2.212 1.178 2,604 0.00 ° 2,604 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 ° 2,604 66,226 oO 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 o 2,604 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 210 2,814 66,226 0 26-540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.30 2.170 4,774 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 3.10 0 2,604 66-226 oO 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 1,750 4,354 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 1,750 4,354 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 420 3,024 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.60 1,750 4,354 66,2726 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 1,750 4,354 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 2-394 4,998 2 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 3.42 1.750 4,354 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2-50 0 2,604 (11,227) (11,227) TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,687 12,816 12,215 19,621 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 1,625 1,869 3,857 1,732 3,524 3,569 1,746 3,496 3,960 5,102 5,013 3,879 7,799 5,629 5,629 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 4,089 6,049 3,879 5,629 5,629 4,299 5,629 5,629 6,273 5,629 3,879 (11,227) NPV: $110,447 OvT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GSOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL PRODUCTION . COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST YRAR (MUh/yr) ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gai) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 i 1,139 ° 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 ° 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 0 8,966 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5-60 1,750 3,216 9 9,300 24,844 2,070 0.841 1.741 2.50 1,750 3,491 0 17,809 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2-50 oO 2,038 29,929 0 3,227 269 0.875 235 0.00 o 235 31,593 0 3,510 293 0.892 261 0.00 °o 261 34,096 oO 3.788 316 0.910 287 0.00 Oo 287 36,860 0 4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 oO 317 39,898 Qo 4,433 369 0.947 350 0.00 0 350 42,921 0 4,769 397 0.966 384 0.00 210 594 45,154 0 5,017 418 0.985 412 0.30 420 832 49,058 0 5,451 454 1.005 457 0.60 1,750 2,207 52,538 ° 5/838 486 1.025 499 2.50 ° 499 56,220 0 6,247 $21 1.046 sha 0.00 1,750 2,294 60,124 oO 6-680 557 1.067 594 2.50 420 1,014 64,276 0 76142 595 1.088 647 0.60 1,750 2,397 68,701 °O 7,633 636 1.110 706 2.50 1,750 2,456 73,280 0 8,142 679 1.132 768 2-50 2,394 3,162 82,782 0 4,103 342 1.154 395 3.42 1,750 2,145 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 B2, 782 Oo 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 3,920 4,900 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 5.60 1,750 2,730 82,782 ° 9,983 832 1-178 980 2.50 1,750 2,730 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 82,782 ° 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 ° 980 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 o 980 82,722 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 82,782 oO 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 210 1,190 82,782 ° 9.983 832 1.178 980 0.30 420 1,400 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.60 1,750 2,730 82.782 Qo 9,983 832 1.178 980 2-50 °O 980 22,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 1,750 2,730 82,782 0 9,983 832 1-178 980 2.50 420 1,400 82,732 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.60 1,750 2,730 oO 9,983 832 2.178 980 2-50 1,750 2.730 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 2,394 3,374 9 9,983 832 1.178 980 3.42 1,750 2.730 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 (10,177) (10,177) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1/275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM CcOosT ($1000) 2,009 11,687 13,194 13,803 20,859 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 1,625 1,869 2.107 3,482 1,774 3,569 2.289 3,672 3,731 4,437 3,420 2,255 6,175 4,005 4,005 2,255 2,255 2,255 2,255 2-255 2,255 2,465 2,675 4,005 2,255 4,005 2,675 4,005 4,005 4,649 4,005 2,255 (10,177) $98,919 TvT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)----GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT - ee ee in nn ee Re re ne pre nn nn ee nnn ne 1 men nen me TOTAL TOTAL a CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL, FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM TON COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cosT COST COST YEAR (muh /yr) ($1000) (Mulh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (MW) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 9 ° 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 0 5,568 16,941 1.412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3-920 5,107 1,012 11,687 0 9,344 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 13,572 9 10,888 24,844 2,070 0.841 1-741 2.50 1,750 3,491 1,012 15,391 0 19,047 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 0 2,038 1,012 22,097 29,039 0 3-227 269 0.875 235 0.00 oO 235 1,275 1,510 31,593 0 3,510 293 0.892 261 0.00 0 261 1,275 1,536 34,096 oO 3,788 316 0.910 287 0.00 0 287 1.275 1,562 36,860 0 4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 0 317 1,275 1,592 39,898 ° 4.433 369 0.947 350 0.00 0 350 1,275 1,625 42,921 0 4,769 397 0.966 384 0.00 210 594 1,275 1,869 43,154 O 5.017 418 0.985 412 0.30 420 832 1,275 2,107 49,058 °O 5,451 454 1.005 457 0.60 oO 457 1,275 1,732 52,538 ° 5,838 486 1.025 499 0.00 O 499 1,275 1,774 56,220 0 6,247 521 1.046 544! 0.00 1,750 2,294 1,275 3,569 60,124 0 6,680 557 1.067 594 2.50 2,170 2,764 1,275 4,039 64,276 0 7,142 595 1.088 647 3.10 ° 647 1,275 1,922 68,701 0 7,633 636 1-110 706 0.00 1,750 2,456 1,275 3-731 73,286 0 8,142 679 1.132 768 2.50 2,394 3,162 1,275 4,437 78,397 0 8,689 724 1.154 836 3.42 1,750 2,586 1,275 3,861 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 2.50 0 910 1,275 2,185 B2,489 ° 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 3,920 4,830 1-275 6,105 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 5.60 1,750 2,660 1,275 3,935 83,489 oO 9,277 773 1.178 910 2.50 1,750 2,660 1,275 3,935 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 2.50 0 910 1,275 2,185 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 0 910 1,275 2.185 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 0 910 1,275 2-185 B34, 486 0 9,277 T73 1.178 910 0.00 0 910 1,275 2.185 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 0 910 1,275 2,185 83,489 °O 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 0 910 1,275 2,185 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 210 1,120 1,275 2,395 83,489 0 9,277 773 1-178 910 0.30 420 1,330 1,275 2,605 23,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.60 0 910 1,275 2,185 83,489 0 9,277 773 1-178 910 0.00 ° 910 1,275 2,185 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 1,750 2,660 1,275 3,935 83,489 ° 9,277 773 1-178 910 2.50 2.170 3,080 1,275 4,355 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 3.10 0 910 1,275 2-185 83,489 oO 9,277 773 1.178 910 0.00 1,750 2,660 1,275 3,935 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 2.50 2,394 3,304 1,275 4,579 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 3.42 1,750 2,660 1,275 3,935 83,489 0 9,277 773 1.178 910 2.50 0 910 1,275 2,185 (9,039) (9,039) (9,039) NPV: $100,034 abl UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 3(1)-—GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT eo TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DT FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPILACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcosT cosT cosT cosT ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1/139 0.876 997 0.00 Oo 997 1,012 2,009 5,568 16,94) 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 1,012 11,687 8,398 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 12,626 6,913 24,844 2,070 0.841 1,741 2.50 1,750 3,491 1,012 11,416 15,501 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 oO 2,038 1,012 18,551 26,411 oO 5,854 488 0.875 427 0.00 oO 427 1,275 1,702 26,411 0 8,692 724 0.892 646 0.00 0 646 1,275 1,921 26/41 °O 11,473 956 0.910 870 0.00 1,750 2,620 1,275 3,895 26,411 0 14,544 1,212 0.928 1,125 2.50 0 1,125 1,275 2,400 26,411 ° 17,920 1,493 0.947 1,414 0.00 1,750 3-164 1,275 4,439 26,41) 0 21,279 1,773 0.966 1,713 2.50 210 1,923 1,275 3,198 26,431 oO 23,759 1,980 0.985 1,95) 0.30 2,170 4/121 1,275 5,396 26,411 0 28,097 2,341 1.005 2,353 3.10 0 2,353 1,275 3,628 26,411 oO 31,964 2,664 1.025 2,731 0.00 1,750 4,481 1,275 5,756 26,411 0 36,056 3,005 1.046 3,142 2.50 1,750 4,892 1,275 6.167 76/411 ° 40,393 3,366 1.067 3.590 2.50 420 4,010 1,275 5.285 26,411 ° 45,006 3,751 1.088 4,080 0.60 1,750 5,830 1,275 7,105 26,411 ° 49,923 4,160 1.110 4-616 2.50 1,750 6,366 1,275 7,641 26,411 0 55,011 4,584 1.132 5,189 2.50 2,394 7,583 1,275 8,858 26,412 ° 60.474 5.039 1.154 5,818 3.42 1,750 7,568 1,275 8,843 26/411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6-511 2.50 0 6,511 1,275 7,786 26,411 O 66.354 5.529 1.178 6,511 0.00 3,920 10/431 1,275 11,706 26,411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 5.60 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26.411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26,41) 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6-511 2.50 oO 6,511 1,275 7,786 26,411 oO 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 0.00 O 6/511 1,275 7,786 26,412 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 0.00 0 6/511 1,275 7,786 26,411 0 66,354 3.529 1.178 6,511 0.00 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26,413 ° 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 0 6,511 1,275 7,786 26,412 ° 66-354 5,529 1.178 6-511 0.00 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26,411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 210 6,721 1,275 7,996 26,41) oO 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 0.30 2,170 8,681 1,275 9,956 26,411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 3.10 0 6,511 1,275 7.786 26,411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 0.00 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26,411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26-411 O 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 420 6,931 1,275 8,206 26,411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 0.60 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26,411 oO 66-354 5,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26,411 0 66,354 53,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 2,394 8,905 1,275 10,180 26,411 oO 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 3-42 1,750 8,261 1,275 9,536 26,411 0 66,354 5,529 1.178 6,511 2.50 0 6,511 1,275 7,786 (12,627) (12,627) (12,627) NPV: $159,301 evi UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT Bessie pen ne penn enn nnn ne= TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL T AL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST cosT CcosT YEAR (Mulh/yr) ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 2,009 2986 9 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 1,012 11,687 1987 0 9,720 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5-60 1,750 3,216 1,012 13,948 1988 ° 12,465 24,844 2,070 0.841 1,741 2.50 1,750 3,491 1,012 16,968 1989 0 19,382 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 ° 2,038 1,012 22,432 1990 29,039 oO 3,227 269 0.875 235 0.00 0 235 1,275 1,510 199) 32,593 0 3,510 293 0.892 261 0.00 0 261 = «1,275 1,536 1992 34,096 ° 3,788 316 0.910 287 0.00 0 287 1,275 1,562 1993 36,860 0 4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 0 317 1,275 1,592 1994 39,898 0 4,433 369 0.947 350 0.00 Oo 350 1,275 1,625 1995 42,92) 0 4,769 397 0.966 384 0.00 1,960 2,344 1,275 3,619 1996 45,154 ° 5,017 418 0.985 412 2.80 420 832 1,275 2,107 199? $2,823 0 1,686 140 1.005 141 0.60 1,750 1,891 1,275 3,166 1998 52,823 ° 5,553 463 1.025 474 2-50 1,750 2,224 1,275 3,499 1999 32,823 0 9,644 804 1.046 840! 2.50 0 840 1,275 2/115 2900 37,823 0 13,982 1,165 1.067 1,243 0.00 2.170 3,413 1,275 4,688 2002 52,822 ° 18,595 1,550 1.088 1,686 3.10 1,750 3,436 1,275 4,711 2002 52,823 ° 23,511 1,959 1-110 2,174 2.50 1,750 3,924 1,275 5.199 2003 52,823 0 28,599 2,383 1.132 2,697 2.50 644 3,341 1,275 4,616 2004 52,623 0 34,062 2,839 1.154 3,277 0.92 1,750 5,027 1,275 6,302 2005 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2-50 0 3,920 1,275 5,195 2006 52,823 ° 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.00 3,920 7,840 1,275 9,115 200? 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 5.60 1,750 5,670 1,275 6,945 7008 532,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2.50 1,750 5,670 1,275 6.945 2009 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2.50 0 3,920 1,275 5,195 PO10 52,623 oO 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.00 0 3,920 1,275 5,195 2011 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.00 0 3,920 1,275 5,195 2012 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.00 ° 3,920 1,275 5,195 2013 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.00 ° 3,920 1,275 5,195 2014 52,823 oO 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.00 °o 3,920 1,275 5,195 2015, 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.00 1,960 5,880 1,275 7,155 2016 32,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2.80 420 4,340 1,275 5,615 2017 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 0.60 1,750 5,670 1,275 6,945 2018 32,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2-50 1,750 5,670 1,275 6,945 2019 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2.50 0 3,920 1,275 5,195 2020 32,823 oO 39,942 3,329 1-178 3,920 0.00 2,170 6.090 1,275 7,365 202% 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 3-10 1,750 5,670 1,275 6,945 2022 22,823 o 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2-50 1,750 5,670 1,275 6,945 2023 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2.50 644 4,564 1,275 5,839 2024 52,823 0 39,942 3,329 1-178 3,920 0.92 1,750 5.670 1,275 6,945 2025 2,822 0 39,942 3,329 1.178 3,920 2.50 0 3,920 1,275 5,195 (10,702) (10,702) (10,702) NPV: $131,434 vvT YEATE 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1.990 1993 3992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20027 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2916 2017 2018 20:9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2925 ° 29,039 32,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 2,921 45,154 49,058 52,538 56,220 60,124 64,276 68,701 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 73,840 28.840 78,846 "8,840 78,840 78,849 78,840 78,840 78,840 8,840 78,840 COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 11,042 18,018 23,264 ° oR t-te) UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) DIESEL PRODUCT LON (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5.017 5,451 5,838 6,247 6,680 7,142 7,633 2,582 8,045 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 557 59s 636 215 670 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,169 1,160 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.84) 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 384 412 457 499 544 594 647 706 244 774 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 (mW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 woo ood NOGOOCSGOSO NWNOWNONDCOSD vVoun KPOUDRLOSCOXOOUUNAdSHaNOHE ecoscoososososcosgooocgg NOWNONOSOODOOCOCONNUO rime ¢ os w a N 2.50 CcOsT ($1000) 0 3-920 1,750 1,750 eoooooo 210 420 1,750 1,750 2,170 1,750 2,394 1,750 3,920 1,750 1,750 ecooooo 210 420 1,750 0 1,750 2,170 0 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 (10,089) (10,089) cosT ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 594 832 2,207 499 2,294 2,764 647 2,456 2,638 2,524 1,366 5,286 3,116 3,116 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,576 1,786 3,116 1,366 3,116 3,536 1,366 3,116 3,760 3,116 1,366 TOTAL O&M CosT ($1000) 1,012, 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 NPVs TOTAL SYSTEM . COST ($1000) 2,009 11,687 15,270 22,521 26,314 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 1,625 1,869 2,107 3,482 1,774 3,569 4,039 1,922 3,732 3,913 3,799 2,641 6,561 4,391 4,391 2,641 2,641 2,641 2,641 2,641 2.641 2,851 3,061 4,391 2,641 4,391 4,811 2,641 4,391 5,035 4,391 2,641 (10,089) $115,829 SbT YEAR 1925 1986 1987 1988 1989 2990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2c0L 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2019 2012 2912 2013 2014 2935 2016 2017 2018 20:9 2020 2021 202? 2023 2074 2025 GEOTHERMAL NUCTION (Muh /yr) ooao°o 0 29,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 45,154 49,058 52,538 56,220 60,124 64,276 68,70} 73,280 78.197 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,439 83,489 83,439 83,489 83,439 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 MAL COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 12,364 23,570 27,145 econo e COC OOC OC OC OC OC OC OOOO OoOoOoCoOC OC OOOO UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE 3(4)-~GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) DIESEL PRODUCTION (mwh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 5,451 5,838 6,247 6,680 7,142 7,633 8,142 8,689 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,27? 9.277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,27) FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 557 595 636 679 724 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1-110 1-132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL. cosT ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 384 412 457 499 sala 594 647 706 768 836 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL SCHEDULE (mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 2-50 0.00 0.00 ° ° ° Woonona WaAUSoHaLOCOCOOOUUAOYAYUD SSOSSSSOSSSSOSSOSOSOSCSGONSOSOOSOSSSCSOSCSS NWNNONOSCOSCCTCOCOONNUONYUNNONODOOOOCOOSO ye ne ONO COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 oo 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 ° (9,127) COST ($1000) 997 5.107 3,216 3,491 2,038 235 261. 287 317 350 594 832 457 499 2,294 1,014 2,397 2,456 3,162 2,586 910 4,830 2,660 2,660 910 910 910 910 910 910 1,120 1,330 910 910 2,660 1,330 2,660 2,660 3,304 2,660 910 (9,127) TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,687 16,592 28,073 30,195 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 1,625 1,869 2,107 1,732 1,774 3,569 2,289 3,672 3,731 4,437 3,861 2,185 6,105 3,935 3,935 2,185 2,185 2,185 2,185 2,185 2,185 2,395 2,605 2,185 2,185 3,935 2,605 3,935 3,935 4,579 3,935 2,185 (9,127) $120,556 9bT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC “ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM POWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT auoee 7 TOTAL “ONSTRUCTION DIESCL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M F NICTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COosT cosT CcosT YEAR (mvln/yr ) ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 ° ° 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3-920 5,107 1,012 ° 0 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 0 3,571 24,844 2,070 0.841 1,741 2.50 1,750 3,491 1,012 3,114 0 25,396 2,116 0.858 1,815 2.50 0 1,815 1,042 3,114 °O 29,151 2,429 0.875 2,125 0.00 1,750 3,875 1,042 3,114 0 31,990 2,666 0.892 2,379 2.50 oO 2,379 1,042 3,114 °o 34,770 2,898 0.910 2,638 0.00 1,750 4,388 1,042 3/114 0 37,842 3,153 0.928 2,928 2.50 0 2,928 1,042 3,114 oO 41,217 3,435 0.947 3,253 0.00 1,750 5,003 1,042 3,114 0 44,576 3,715 0.966 3,588 2.50 210 3,798 1,042 3,114 ° 47,057 3,92) 0.985 3,864 0.30 2,170 6,034 1,042 3,114 0 51,394 4,283 1.005 4,304 3.10 0 4,304 1,042 3,134 ° 55,262 4,605 1.025 4,721 0.00 1,750 6,471 1,042 3,114 0 59,353 4,946 1.046 5,172 2.50 1,750 6,922 1,042 3,114 oO 63,690 5,308 1.067 5,661 2.50 420 6,081 1,042 3,114 0 68,303 5,692 1.088 6,192 0.60 1,750 7,942 1,042 3,114 0 73,220 6,102 1-110 6,771 2.50 1,750 8,521 1,042 3/114 ° 78,308 6,526 1.132 7,386 2-50 2,394 9,780 1,042 3,114 Oo 83.772 6,981 1.154 8,059 3.42 1,750 9,809 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 2.50 0 8,797 1,042 3.114 0 89,651 7.471 1.178 8,797 0.00 3,920 12,717 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7.471 1.178 8,797 5.60 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,214 0 89,651 7.471 1.178 8,797 2.50 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 2.50 0 8,797 1,042 3,214 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 0.00 1,750 10-547 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 2.50 ° 8,797 1,042 3.114 0 89,651 7.471 1.178 8,797 0.00 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 ° 89,651 7,472 1.178 8,797 2-50 0 8.797 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 0.00 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7A 1.178 8,797 2.50 210 9,007 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 0.30 2.170 10,967 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 3.10 ° 8,797 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8.797 0.00 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 TAN 1.178 8,797 2.50 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 ° 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 2.50 420 9,217 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 0.60 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 ° 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 2.50 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 2.50 2,394 11,191 1,042 3,114 ° 89,651 74471 1.178 8,797 3.42 1,750 10,547 1,042 3,114 0 89,651 7,471 1.178 8,797 2-50 ° 8,797 1,042 (13,064) (13,064) TOTAL, SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 6,119 4,228 10,074 2,857 4,917 3,421 5,430 3,970 6,045 4,840 7,076 5,346 7,513 7,964 7,123 8,984 9,563 10,822 10,851 9,839 13,759 11,589 11,589 9,839 11,589 9,839 11,589 9,839 11,589 10,049 12,009 9,839 11,589 11,589 10,259 11,589 11,589 12,233 11,589 9,839 (13,064) NPV: $165,839 Lvl UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTFRNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEI, COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM ‘S$ PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcOsT CcosT CcosT COST ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (raw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 0 16,94) 1,412 0.841 1,187 0-00 3,920 5,107 1,012 6,119 0 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 4,228 1,762 24,844 2,070 0.841 1,741 2-50 1,750 3,491 1,012 6,265 0 26,336 2,195 0.858 1,883 2-50 1,750 3,633 1,032 4,665 ° 30,091 2,508 0.875 2,194 2-50 0 24194 1,032 3,226 0 32,930 2,744 0.892 2,449 0.00 0 2,449 1,032 3,481 0 35,710 2,976 0.910 2,709 0.00 1,750 4,459 1,032 5,491 0 38,782 3,232 0.928 3,001 2.50 0 3,001 1,032 4,033 0 42,157 3-513 0.947 3,327 0.00 1,750 5,077 1,032 6,109 0 45,516 3,793 0.966 3,664 2.50 210 3,874 1,032 4,906 oO 47,997 4,000 0.985 3,941 0.30 2.170 6,111 1,032 7.143 0 52,334 4,361 1.005 4,383 3.10 1,750 6,133 1,032 7,165 ° 56,202 4,683 1.025 4,80) 2.50 ° 4,801 1,032 5,833 0 60,293 5,024 1.046 5,254 0.00 1,750 7,004 1,032 8,036 0 64-630 5,386 1.067 5,744 2.50 2,170 76914 1,032 8,946 ° 69,243 5,770 1.088 6.277 3.10 ° 6,277 1,032 7,309 0 74.160 6,180 1.110 6,858 0.00 1,750 8,608 1,032 9,640 0 79,248 6,604 1.132 7,475 2-50 2,394 9,869 1,032 10,901 0 84,711 7,059 1-154 8,150 3.42 1,750 9,900 1,032 10,932 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 2-50 ° 8,890 1,032 9,922 ° 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 0.00 3,920 12,810 1,032 13,842 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 5.60 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 ° 90,592 7,549 1.178 8,890 2.50 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 2-50 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 2-50 oO 8,890 1,032 9,922 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 0.00 0 8,890 1,032 9,922 0 90,59} 7,549 1.178 8,890 0.00 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 2.50 0 8,890 1,032 9,922 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 0.00 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 2.50 210 9,100 1,032 10,132 ° 90,591 7,549 1.178 8.890 0.30 2,170 11,060 1,032 12,092 0 90,59] 7,549 1.178 8,890 3.10 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 ° 90,59) 7,549 1.178 8.890 2.50 0 8,890 1,032 9,922 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 0.00 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 oO 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 2-50 2,170 11,060 1,032 12,092 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 3.10 0 8,890 1,032 9,922 ° 90,591 74549 1.178 8,890 0.00 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 0 90,591 7,549 1-178 8,890 2.50 2,394 11,284 1,032 12,316 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 3.42 1,750 10,640 1,032 11,672 0 90,591 7,549 1.178 8,890 2.50 0 8,890 1,032 9,922 (12,802) (12,802) (12,802) NPV: $164,080 8vT YELR 1985, 1986 1987 1988 1989 !990 199) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201} 201? 2013 2014S 2075 2016 2017 7018 2079 2920 2021 2022 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDROPOWER COMPONENT HYDROPOWER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION (h/yr) ($1000) (Mwh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 23,222 26,977 29,816 32,596 35,668 39,043 42,402 44,883 49,220 53,088 57,179 61,516 66,129 71,046 76,134 81,597 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87.477 87,477 87.477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87.477 87,47? 87.477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87.477 87,477 Nooo 6,38 whut gt ut ur ut wut w Nh t-te) USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 1,935 2,248 2,485 2.716 2,972 3,254 3,533 3.740 4,102 4,424 4,765 5,126 5,51) 5,921 6,344 6,800 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7.290 7,290 7,290 7,290 74290 7,290 7,290 7,290 FUEL PRICE (s/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1-154 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 2.178 1.178 COST ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 1,660 1,967 2.217 2.473 2,760 3,081 3,413 3,685 4,122 4,535 4,982 5.467 5,995 6,570 7,181 7.850 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 SCHEDULE (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2-50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2-50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT cosT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 ° 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 0 1.750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 3.920 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 ° 1,750 °O 1,750 210 2,170 0 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 (13,064) (13,064) cosT ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 1,660 3,717 2,217 4.223 2,760 4,831 3,623 5,855 4,122 6,285 6,732 5,887 7,745 8,320 9,575 9,600 8,584 12,504 10,334 10,334 8,584 10,334 8,584 10,334 8,584 10,334 8,794 10,754 8,584 10,334 10,334 9,004 10,334 10,334 10,978 10,334 8,584 TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 ‘1,012 1,012 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,962 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 6.119 4,228 10,890 2,722 4,779 34279 5,285 3,822 5,893 4,685 6,917 5,184 7,347 7,794 6,949 8,807 9,382 10,637 10,662 9,646 13,566 11,396 11-396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,856 11,816 9,646 11,396 11,396 10,066 11,396 11,396 12,040 11,396 9,646 (13,064) $163,452 6b APPENDIX D Construction Costs of Power System Alternatives GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) ONE UNIT, 2.1 MW NET 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Production well (1) 3,957 oO o Oo 3,957 Injection well (0) : ° Oo o oO o Well testing 396 , o ° ° 396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Project administration/management 502 442 442 554 1,940 Start-up 0 o oO 222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS #5,397 $892 $B92 #1,551 8,732 POWER PLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Q 378 1,588 1,058 3,024 Production pipeline oO o 120 oO 120 Injection pipeline oO o Qo Q oO Spare parts o °o 1, 0 60 60 Consulting and coordination 171 211 211 251 B44 Start-up 0 oO oO 300 300 Insurance oO Oo 137 137 274 SUBTOTAL POWER PLANT COSTS #171 $589 $2,056 $1,806 $4,622 OTHER COSTS Road construction Qo 5,973 oO oO 5,973 Transmission line 9° ° 0 9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS £0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 $15,473 SSRRa SSS SS SSS SESS TOTAL. COSTS FOR ONE UNIT $5,568 $7,454 $2,948 £12,857 $28,827 OST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOFMENT .COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand £983 Dollars) TWO UNITS, 4.2 MW NET 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOFMENT COSTS (19683) Production well (1) 3,957 oO Qo °o 3,957 Injection well (0) °o oO Oo ° o Well testing 396 o Oo Qo 396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Froject administration/management 502 442 442 554 1,740 Start-up 0 222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS #5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 FOWER PLANT COSTS Plant engineering and construction Oo 756 3,176 2,116 6,048 Production pipeline Qo o 120 0 120 Injection pipeline Qo a oO oO oO Spare parts ° Oo Oo 120 120 Consulting and coordination 171 211 ; 211 251 844 Start-up 0 oO oO 420 420 Insurance o oO 137 137 274 SUBTOTAL POWER PLANT COSTS $171 $967 $3,644 $3,044 $7,826 OTHER COSTS Road construction ° 5,973 oO o 5,973 Transmission line oO oO oO 9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS £0 $5,973 sO $9,500 $15,473 seemmecese eens ese Se eS se SSSR SSE TOTAL COSTS FOR TWO UNITS $5,568 $7,832 $4,536 $14,095 $32,031 IST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1963 Dollars) THREE UNITS, 6.3 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Production well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER PLANT COSTS Plant engineering and construction Froduction pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL POWER PLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL COSTS FOR THREE UNITS 9,500 aM: $5,568 $8,210 9,072 120 ° 180 B44 540 274 $11,030 5,973 9,500 $9,500 $15,473 Saaeeteee eS #6,124 $15,333 $35,235 2ST GEOTHERMAL FOUR UNITS, 8.4 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Production well ¢ 1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Project administration/management Start-up SURTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER PLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Production pipeli Injection pipelin Spare parts Consulting and ca Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL POWER OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER TOTAL. COSTS FOR FOUR ne e ordination PLANT COSTS costs UNITS DEVELOPMENT COSTS-~-TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 ° o ° 3,957 0 ° ° ° ° 396 0 0 0 396 542 450 450 775 2,217 502 442 442 554 1,940 0 ° ° 222 222 #5, 397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 0 1,512 6,352 4,232 12,096 ° o 120 ° 120 0 ° ° ° ° 0 ° oO 240 240 171 211 "2a 251 844 ° ° o 660 460 ° o 137 137 274 $171 $1,723 $6,820 $5,520 £14,234 Qo 5,973 Qo o 5,973 ° oO o 9,500 9,500 $0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 £15,473 SSE $5,568 #8,588 #7,712 $16,571 $38,439 eST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) FIVE UNITS, 10.5 MW NET 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (198%) Production well (1) 3,957 oO oO oO 3,957 Injection well (0) ° 0 oO Qo oO Well testing 396 Qo o oO 396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Project administration/management 502 442 442 554 1,940 Start-up oO Oo Oo 222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS $5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 FOWER PLANT COSTS Plant engineering and construction oO 1,890 7,740 5,290 15,120 Production pipeline Qo oO 120 oO 120 Injection pipeline oO oO oO Qo ° Spare parts oO o ' oO 300 300 Consulting and coordination 171 211 211 251 B44 Start-up Oo 780 Insurance ° 274 SUBTOTAL POWER PLANT COSTS #171 $2,101 $8,408 $6,758 $17,438 OTHER COSTS Road construction Oo 5,973 a o 5,973 Transmission line o ° °o 9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL. OTHER COSTS $0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 £15,473 TOTAL COSTS FOR FIVE UNITS $5,568 $8,966 #9,300 $17,809 $41,643 vST GEOTHERMAL. DEVELOPMENT COSTS--~-TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) SIX UNITS, 12.6 MW NET 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL. FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Production well (1) 3,957 °o o o 3,957 Injection well (0) ° o Qa o °o Well testing 396 0 oO Oo 396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Project administration/management S02 442 442 554 1,940 Start-up o o o 222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS $5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 FOWER PLANT COSTS Plant engineering and construction oO 2,268 9,528 6,348 18,144 Production pipeline °o oO 120 QO 120 Injection pipeline oO oO Qo Oo oO Spare parts o QO ' QO 360 360 Consulting and coordination 171 211 211 251 B44 Start-up Oo 0 Qo 900 900 Insurance o Ci 137 137 274 SUBTOTAL FOWER PLANT COSTS $171 $2,479 $9,996 $7,996 $20,642 OTHER COSTS Road construction Qo 5,973 oO oO 5,973 Transmission line oO °o oO 9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS #0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 $15,473 Saati eae SESS TOTAL COSTS FOR SIX UNITS $5,568 $9,344 $10,886 $19,047 £44,847 SST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS--~BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) ONE UNIT, 3.35 MW NET 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Production well (1) 3,957 Q QO Oo 3,957 Injection well (0) Q oO o Oo oO Well testing 376 ° Oo oO 396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Project administration/management 502 442 442 554 1,940 Start~up Oo Oo oO 222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS $5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 POWER PLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction oO 1,322 5,553 3,702 10,576 Production pipeline 0 0 120 oO 120 Injection pipeline Qo oO o Oo oO Spare parts Qo oO Qo 60 60 Consulting and coordinatian 171 211 "211 251 844 Start-up o 0 o 300 300 Insurance o ° 137 137 274 SUBTOTAL FOWER FLANT COSTS #171 £1,533 $6,021 $4,450 £12,174 OTHER COSTS Road construction oO 5,973 oO oO 5,973 Transmission line l oO oO oO 9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS $0 $5,973 #0 $9,500 £15,473 SaaS eee SEES SEES TOTAL COSTS FOR ONE UNIT $5,568 $8,398 $6,913 $15,501 $36,379 9ST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS-~-BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) TWO UNITS, 6.70 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Production well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Project administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER PLANT COSTS Plant engineering and construction Production pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL POWER PLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL COSTS FOR TWO UNITS 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 0 o o 3,957 ° ° ° ° ° 396 Oo 0 ° 396 542 450 450 775 2,217 502 442 442 554 1,940 0 o o 222 222 $5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 o 2,644 11,105 7,403 21,152 ° o 120 o 120 0 ° ° ° ° 0 o ° 120 120 171 211 '214 251 844 0 ° ° 420 420 ° ° 137 137 274 $171 $2,855 $11,573 $8,331 $22,930 ° 5,973 ° ° 5,973 0 ° ° 9,500 9,500 $0 $5,973 $0 «$9,500 £15,473 Sa SSeS RSS SSE $5,568 $9,720 $12,465 $19,382 $47,135 LST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) THREE UNITS, 10.05 MW NET 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Production well (1) 3,957 a Oo o 3,957 Injection well (0) ° oO Oo o 0 Well testing 396 9 0 ° 396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Froject administration/management 502 442 442 554 1,940 Start-up oO oO ° 222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS $5,397 #892 #892 $1,551 $8,732 FOWER PLANT COSTS Plant engineering and construction o 3,966 16,658 11,105 31,728 Production pipeline Oo 0 120 ° 120 Injection pipeline ° Oo ° oO oO Gpare parts o Oo ' a 180 180 Consulting and coordination 171 211 211 251 B44 Start-up Oo oO oO 540 540 Insurance oO ° 137 137 274 SUBTOTAL FOWER PLANT COSTS #171 $4,177. €17,126 $12,213 £33,486 OTHER COSTS Road construction Oo 5,973 o oO 5,973 Transmission line ° Qo Oo 9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS $0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 $15,473 Sagano ese SSeS eS Sees SESS SESS TOTAL. COSTS FOR THREE UNITS $5,568 - $11,042 £16,018 $23,264 £57,891 8ST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS~--BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) FOUR UNITS, 13.40 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS POWER FLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Production pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL POWER PLANT COSTS QTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL QTHER COSTS TOTAL COSTS FOR FOUR UNITS 1986 1987 1988 3,957 0 9° °o o °o 396 oO ° S42 450 450 S02 442 442 9 oO o $5,397 $892 $892 o 5,288 22,210 oO oO 120 0 0 ° o oO oO 171 211 "2a o ° 0 0 0 137 1989 778 554 222 TOTAL 3,957 ° 396 2,217 1,940 222 $171 $5,499 £22,478 0 5,973 ° o ° 0 $0 $5,973 £0 Sammeme oes SSeS SRS SSeS $5,568 $12,364 $23,570 $1,551 $8,732 14,806 42,304 0 120 ° oO 240 240 251 B44 660 460 137 274 $16,094 $44,442 ° 5,973 9,500 9,500 $9,500 $15,473 $27,145 $68,647 6ST 160 PYRAMID CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT B.9 DETAILED COST ESTIMATE Item Cost Mobilization $ 100,000 POWERHOUSE $ 35,000 (Structural and Architectural) TURBINE/GENERATOR $ 225,000 (Package Unit) ACCESSORY ELECTRICAL EQUIP $ 82,000 (Control System) AUXILIARY SYSTEMS & EQUIP $ 11,000 (HVAC and Dewatering) -. SWITCHYARD $ 27,000 BYPASS PIPE SYSTEM $ 100,000 SUBTOTAL $ 580,000 Contingencies (25%) $ 145,000 Subtotal $ 725,000 E&D $ 47,000 S&A $ 44,000 TOTAL PRUJECT COST $ 816,000 IDC (9 months) $32,000 TOTAL INVESTMENT COST $ 848,000 (Source: U.S. Corps of Engineers, 1984) 161 SHAISHNIKOF HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT A.12 DETAILED COST ESTIMATE ITEM/DESCRIPTION LANDS & DAMAGES Administration Costs Lands Contingency (20%) Total Lands and Damages MOB & DEMOB - Contingency (15%) Total Mob and Demob DAM & INTAKE STRUCTURE Excavation, Common Excavation, Rock (Dam) Excavation, Rock (Spillway) Concrete, Dam Steel, Structural Steel, Rebar & Misc. Sluice Gate Assembly Penstock Gate Trash Rack Air Vent Timber, Treated 4"X12" T-G Decking 3/4 ACX Plywood, Treated Grout Holes, Drilling Grout Rock Bolts Contingency (20%) Total Dam and Intake Structure ROCKFILL COFFERDAM Contingency (25%) Total Rockfill Cofferdam PENSTOCK 42" dia 1/4" Steel Ring Stiffners Rock Bolts Timber Supports Concrete Excavation, Common Contingency (20%) Total Penstock QUANTITY 1,769 687 1,880 67 4,800 4,000 600 - 400 - 40 10.5 2,600 360 90 130 - 1,000 111,440 5,600 64 32 34 92 UNIT es ee nn ee 1.8. lbs. lbs. ea. ea. c.y. c.y. UNIT PRICE 15 100 50 1,200 1.50 2.00 18,000 10,000 3.50 3.50 3, 300 3,600 3.10 » 40 130 30 25 1.80 30 255 1,400 15 TOTAL $ 10,000 63,000 15,000 3 88,000 $ 600,000 90,000 ee $ 690,000 $ 26,535 68,700 94,000 80,400 7,200 8,000 18,000 10,000 2,100 1,400 132,000 37,800 8,060 14,400 11,700 3,900 104, 805 $ 629,000 $ 25,000 5,000 $30, 000 $ 222,800 10,080 1,920 8, 160 47,600 1, 380 57,980 $ 350,000 162 ITEM/VESCRIPTION QUANTITY POWERHOUSE Structure Turbine Generator Accessory Electrical Auxiliary Sys. & Equip. Switchyard Contingency (20%) Total Powerhouse SoS ana TAILRACE Excavation 334 Rockf ill 154 Contingency (20%) TRANSMISSION LINE (buried) a: ontingency Total Transmission Line UNIMPROVED DIRT ROAD Excavation, Common 16,940 Excavation, Rock 12,360 Fill 4,535 24" Cmp 630 48" Cmp 175 Contingency (20%) Total Unimproved Dirt Road SUBTOTAL Engineering & Design Supervision & Administration TOTAL PROJECT COST (Source: U.S. Corps of Engineers, 1984) UNIT ea. ea. ea. ea. ea. aa mile —-9aa0 >A K< UNIT PRICE 128,000 269,000 162,000 39,000 46,000 155,000 25 10 38 100 TOTAL $ 128,000 538,000 162,000 39,000 46,000 183,000 $ 1,096,000 $ ‘1,670 1,540, 790 4,000 $ 1,240,000 248,000 ¥ 1,488,000 $ 84,000 309,000 45,350 23,940 17,500 96,510 $ 577,000 $ 4,952,000 322,000 297,000 $ 5,571,000 APPENDIX E Sensitivity Analyses FUEL ESCALATION RATE GROWTH DISCOUNT RATE ALTERNATIVES SCENARIO LOW BASE CASE APPENDIX E SUMMARY TABLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NET PRESENT VALUES ($ 1,000) LOW FUEL ESCALATION MEDIUM FUEL ESCALATION HIGH FUEL_ESCALATION 4.5% 76,964 GROWTH [aay SCENARIO 74,199 67,434 MODERATE pease CASE 112,121 94 ,384 GROWTH 4A(2) 79,818 72,204 SCENARIO B(1) 94,783 84,782 106,746 HIGH {BASE CASE 131,728 110,476 165,819 137,411 197 ,886 162,611 =\— GROWTH {A(5) 95,104 86,100 98,919 89,156 102 ,464 91,975 SCENARIO B(3) 111,061 101,038 115,829 104,810 120,310 108,331 C(3) 131,647 111,048 163,452 136,142 193,427 159 ,670 9252/382/F2/1 e91 UN ALASZA/DUTCH HARBOR FOWER SYS’ LOH ¢ T BASE CASE--LOW FUEL FR PLAN ND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS =O CE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM BOY : USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT cosT cOsT YEAR (Mtin/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (MW) | ($1000) ($000) ($1000) 123,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 15,132 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3-920 1,012 5,994 2 16,652 1,388 0.807 1,120 5.60 1,750 1,012 3,882 1988 18.1 1,514 0.775 1,173 2.50 0 1,012 2,185 1999 9 1,621 0.775 1,257 0.00 0 1,012 2,269 2990 29,7350 1,729 0.775 1,340 0.00 ° 1,012 2,352 1.997 1,837 0.775 1,424 0.00 0 1,012 2,436 1992 1.946 9.775 4,508 0.00 1,750 1,012 4,270 i992 2,054 0.775 1,592 2.50 to} 1,012 2,604 1904 2,163 0.775 1,676 0.00 0 1,012 2,688 1995 2,272 0.775 1,762 0.00 210 1,012 2,983 1996 2,282 0.775 1,769 0.30 420 1,012 3,201 1997 2,293 0.775 1,777 0.60 0 1,012 2,789 L9aR 2,304 0.775 1,785 0.00 oT; 1,012 2.797 2,315 0.775 1,794 0.90 0 1,012 2,806 2.226 0.775 1,803 0.c0 420 21,012 3,235 2,338 0.775 1,812 0.60 Oo 1,012 2,824 2,350 0.775 1,821 0.00 0 1,012 2,833 2,362 0.775 1,820 0.00 644 1,012 3,486 2,374 0.775 1,840 0.92 0 1,012 2,852 2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 3,850 0.00 3.920 1,012 6,782 2,386 0.775 1,850 5.60 1,750 1,012 4,612 2,386 0.775 1,850 2.50 oO 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 9.00 o 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 1,750 1,012 4,612 2,386 0.775 2.50 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 210 1,012 3,072 2,386 0.775 0.30 420 1,012 3,282 2,386 0.775 0.60 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 9 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 0.00 420 1,012 3,282 2,386 0.775 0.60 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 9.CO oO 1,012 2,862 2,386 0.775 9.00 644 1,012 3,506 2,386 0.775 9.92 0 1,012 2,862 2,386 = 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 (2,214) (2,214) NPV(3.5): $67,715 NPU(4. : $58,268 y9T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYS’ LOW GRY BASE CASE--MEDIUM FU Wa/ys) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 25,952 27,259 27,385 27,533 27,644 27,778 27,914 28,053 28,394 28,339 28,486 28.637 28,637 23.637 28,637 28.637 28,637 2 28.637 2017 28,637 7014 28,637 2075 28,637 2016 28.637 2027 28,637 20193 28,637 2019 28,637 2920 28,637 2grt 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 78,637 ° FUEL USE (2000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 1.729 1,837 1,946 2,054 2.163 2,272 2,282 2,293 2,304 2,315 2,326 2,338 2,350 2,362 2,374 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 2,386 FUEL cost ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 * 1,273 1,391 1,313 1,640 1,771 1,907 2,048 2,194 2,249 2,304 2,362 2,420 2,481 2,543 ?,607 2,672 2,742 2,810 2,810 2,816 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,820 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,81¢ 2,820 2,819 ADDITION/REPLACEMENT osm SCHEDULE cost cost (nav) ($1000) ($1000) 0.00 0 1,012 0.00 3,920 1,012 5.60 1,750 1,012 2.50 0 = 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 1,750 1,012 2.50 0 = 1/012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 210 1,012 _ 0-30 420 1-012 - 0.60 0 = 1,012 0.00 0, = 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 420 1,012 0.60 0 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 644 =—-1,012 0.92 Oo 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 3,920 1,012 5.60 1,750 1,012 2.50 0 = 1,017 0.00 0 1,012 0.00 o = 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 1,750 1,012 2.30 0 1,012 0.00 o = 1,012 0.00 210 = 1,012 0.30 420 1,012 0.60 0 1,012 0.00 0 = 1,012 0.00 0 1,012 0.00 420 1,012 0.60 0 1,012 0.00 0 1,012 0.00 644 1,012 0.92 0 1,012 0.00 0 1,012 (2,214). NPV(3.5): PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MARIO . PRICE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 5,994 3,929 2,285 2,403 2,525 2,652 4,533 2,919 3,060 3,416 3,681 3,316 3,374 3,432 3,913 3,555 3,619 4,329 3,753 3,822 7,742 5,572 3,822 3,822 3,822 3,822 5,572 3,822 3,822 4,032 4,242 3,822 3,822 3,822 4,242 3,822 3,822 4,466 3,822 3,822 (2,214) $79,852 NPV(4.5): $68,026 SOT UNSLASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENSRTO BASE CASE--HIGH FUEL PRICF ESCALATION RATE TOTAL FUEL, FUEL. FUEL 2DDITION/REPLACEMENT O8M SYSTEM USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST COST (1900 gat) ($/gat) ($1009) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1,139 0.874 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 1,263 9.876 0.00 3,920 1,012 6,038 1,388 0.876 5.60 1,750 1,012 3,978 1,514 0.876 2.50 9 1,012 2,338 1,621 0.907 0.00 0 1,012 2,482 1.729 0-938 9.00 0 1,012 2,635 1,837 0.971 0.00 0 1,012 2,796 2 1,946 1.005 0.00 1,750 1,012 4,718 34,648 2,054 1.040 2-50 0 1,012 3,149 25,952 2,163 1.077 0.00 ° 1,012 3,341 27,259 2,272 1.115 0.00 210 1,012 3,754 27,385 2,282 1.154 0.30 420 1,012 4,064 27,513 2,293 1.194 0.60 9 1,012 3,749 27,644 2,304 1.236 0.00 oOo , 1,012 3,859 27,778 2,315 1.279 0.00 ° 1,012 3,972 27,914 2,326 1.324 0.00 420 1,012 4.511 28,053 2,338 1.370 0-60 ° 1,012 4,215 28,194 2,350 1.418 0.00 0 1,012 4,344 78,339 2,362 1.468 0.00 644 1,012 5,122 28,486 2,374 1.519 0.92 0 1,012 4,618 28,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 0 1,012 4,764 28.637 2,386 1.572 0-00 3,920 1,012 8,684 28,637 2,386 1.572 5.60 1,750 1,012 6,514 28,637 2.386 1.572 2.50 0 1,012 4,764 23,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 0 1,012 4,764 8.637 2,386 1.572 0.00 O 1,012 4,764 28,6237 2,386 1.572 0.00 0 1,012 4,764 -637 2,386 1.572 0.00 1,750 1,012 6,514 28,637 2,386 1.572 2.50 0 1,012 4,764 26,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 0 1,012 4,764 28,627 : 2,386 1.572 0.00 210 1,012 4,974 2,627 2.386 1.572 9.30 420 1,012 5,184 28-637 2,386 1.572 9-60 0 1,012 4,764 2,386 1.572 9.00 9 21,012 4,764 2,386 372 0.00 0 1,012 4,764 , 2,386 72 0.00 420 1,012 5,184 2,386 21.572 0.69 0 1,012 4,764 2,386 1.572 9.90 9 1,912 4,764 2,386 2.5797 9.00 644 1,012 5,408 24 386 1-572 9.92 9 1,012 4,764 2,386 1.57? 0.00 oO 1,012 4,764 (2,214) (2,214) NPV(3.5): $91,050 NPY¥(4.5): $76,964 99T UNALASKA/DU7CH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GPOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT - TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M = SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT CcOsT cosT CcOsT ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 2,009 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 7,832 16,652 1,388 0.807 1,120 5.60 1,750 2,870 1,012 11,714 4,536 18,162 1,514 0.775 1,173 2.50 Oo 1,173 1,012 6,721 14,095 19,455 1,621 0.775 1,257 0.00 0 1,257 1,012 16,364 18,675 ° 2,075 173 0.775 134 0.00 Oo 134 1,275 1,409 19,842 0 2,205 184 0.775 142 0.00 0 142 1,275 1,417 22,012 ° 2,335 195 0.775 151 0.00 ° 151 1,275 1,426 22,183 0 2,465 205 0.775 159 0.00 0 159 1,275 1,434 23,357 ° 2,395 216 0.775 168 0.00 0 168 1,275 1,443 24,533 0 2,726 227 0.775 176 0.00 210 386 1-275 1,66) 24,646 O 2.738 228 0.775 177 0.30 420 397 1,275 1,872 24,762 0 2,752 229 0.775 178 0.60 0 178 1,275 1,453 24,880 0 2.764 230 0.775 179 0.00 Oo 179 1,275 1,454 0 2,778 231 0.775 179 0.00 0 179 1,275 1,454 QO 2,791 233 9.775 180 0.00 420 600 1,275 1,875 O 2,805 234 0.775 181 0.60 0 181 1,275 1,456 ° 2,819 235 0.775 182 0.00 oO 182 1,275 1,457 0 2,834 236 0.775 183 0.00 644 827 1,275 2,102 0 2,849 237 0.775 184 0.92 O 184 1,275 1,459 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 oO 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 3,920 4,105 1,275 5,380 ° 2,864 239 0.775 185 5.60 1,750 1,935 1,275 3,210 "NOB 25,773 oO 2,864 239 0.775 185 2.50 0 185 1,275 1,460 2009 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 185 1,275 1,460 2010 23,773 oO 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 2012 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 2022 25,773 oO 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 °o 185 1,275 1,460 2013 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 2014 25.773 oO 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 2015 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 210 395 1,275 1,670 7016 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.30 420 605 1,275 1,880 2017 23,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.60 0 185 1,275 1,460 18 25.773 o 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 2019 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 ° 185 1,275 1,460 *920 25,773 ° 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 420 605 1,275 1,880 2021 25.773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.60 0 185 1,275 1,460 7022 25,773 o 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 2023 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 644 829 1,275 2,104 2924 773 ° 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.92 oO 185 1,275 1,460 2025 25.773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 oO 185 1,275 1,460 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV(3.5): $71,469 NPV(4.5): $65,183 L9T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE 'HERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT _———______——. — --—----—----—-- eC TOTALCSTOTAL IRMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM EPCDUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT cosT COST COST YrER (mulh/yr) ($1000) (Mwh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 2,009 ° 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 ° 7,832 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 11,761 9 4,536 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 oO 1,273 1,012 6,821 9 14,095 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 0 1,391 1,012 16,498 3 0 2,075 173 0.875 151 0.00 0 151 1,275 1,426 2 0 2,205 184 0.892 164 0.00 0 164 1,275 1,439 2 O 2,335 195 0.910 177 0.00 oO 177 1,275 1,452 2 0 2,465 205 0.928 191 0.00 ° 191 1,275 1,466 ? 0 2,395 216 0.947 205 0.00 ° 205 1,275 1,480 0 2,726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275 1,704 oO 2.738 228 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1,275 1,920 1997 24,762 0 2,751 229 1.005 230 0.60 0 230 1,275 1,505 1898 24,880 0 2.764 230 1.025 236 0.00 o 236 1,275 1,511 1999 25.000 0 2,778 231 1.046 242 0.00 0 242 1,275 1,517 2250 25,122 0 2,791 233 1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1,943 0 2,805 234 1.088 254 0.60 0 254 1,275 1,529 QO 2,819 235 1.110 261 0.00 0 261 1,275 1,536 0 2,834 236 1.132 267 0.00 644 911 1,275 2,186 ° 2,849 237 1-154 274 0.92 0 274 1,275 1,549 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 ° 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 3,920 4,201 1,275 5.476 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2,031 1,275 3,306 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 2.50 O 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 oO 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 O 281 1,275 1,556 o 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 oO 281 1,275 1,556 °O 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 491 1,275 1,766 0 2,864 239 1.178 28) 0-30 420 701 1,275 1,976 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1-178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 °O 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1,275 1,976 O 2,864 239 1-178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 oO 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1,275 2,200 9 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.92 oO 281 1,275 1,556 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV(3.5): $72,901 NPV(4.5): $66,368 891 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE MAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT Fee ee en ene nnn nes memennn nnn emnnnmnn TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cost COST CcOsT YEE? ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gai) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ° 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 ° 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.876 1,106 0.00 3,920 5,026 1,012 11,606 ° 7,832 16,652 1,388 0.876 1,216 5.60 1,750 2,966 1,012 11,810 9 4,536 18,162 1,514 0.876 1,326 _ 2.50 ° 1,326 1,012 6,874 0 14,095 19,455 1,621 0.907 1,470 0.00 0 1,470 1,012 16,577 18,675 0 2,075 173 0.938 162 0.00 oO 162 1,275 1,437 19,842 ° 2,205 184 0.971 178 0.00 oO 178 1,275 1,453 21,012 0 2,335 195 1.005 196 0.00 °o 196 1,275 1,471 22,183 ° 2,465 205 1.040 214 0.00 0 214 1,275 1,489 23,357 0 2,595 216 1.077 233° 0.00 0 233 1,275 1,508 24,533 0 2.726 227 1-115 253 0.00 210 463 1,275 1,738 24.646 ° 2,738 228 1.154 263 0.30 420 683 1,275 1,958 24,762 0 2,751 229 1.194 274 0.60 0 274 1,275 1,549 24,880 ° 2.764 230 1.236 285 0.00 0 285 1,275 1,560 25,900 0 2,778 231 1.279 296 0.00 0 296 1,275 1,571 25,12 0 2,791 233 1.324 308 0.00 420 728 1,275 2,003 23,247 ° 2,805 234 1.370 320 0-60 ° 320 1,275 1,595 25,375 0 2,819 235 1.418 333 0.00 0 333 1,275 1,608 25,505 © 2,834 236 1.468 347 0.00 644 991 1,275 2,266 23.638 ° 2,849 237 1.519 361 0.92 } 361 1,275 1,636 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 0 375 1,275 1,650 23.773 Do} 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 3,920 4,295 1,275 5,570 25,773 0 2,864 2239 1.572 375 5.60 1,750 2.125 1,275 3,400 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 2.50 °o 375 1,275 1,650 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375, 0.00 0 375 1,275 1,650 ° 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 o 375 1,275 1,650 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 0 375 1,275 1,650 ° 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 Oo 375 1,275 1,650 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 0 375 1,275 1,650 ° 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 0 375 1,275 1,650 0 2,864 239 1.572 375, 0.00 210 585 1,275 1,860 ° 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.30 420 795 1,275 2.070 ° 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.60 oO 375 1,275 1,650 0 2.864 239 1.572 375 0.00 ° 375 1,275 1,650 3 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 0 375 1,275 1,650 2020 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375, 0.00 420 795 1,275 2,070 202i 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.60 0 375 1,275 1,650 2022 25,773 ° 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 O 375 1,275 1,650 2023 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 644 1,019 1,275 2,294 2024 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.92 ° 375 1,275 1,650 2025 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.572 375 0.00 0 375 1,275 1,650 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV(3.5): $74,199 NPV(4.5): $67,434 69T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 8(1)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE MAL, COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL (CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS FRODPUCT: USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST CcOsT COST COST VFR £$1000) imMWn/yr) (1000 gat) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 23,663 1/139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 3,568 15,152 1,263 0.84) 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 8,398 16,652 “1,388 0.807 1,120 5.60 1,750 2,870 1,012 12,280 6,913 18,162 1,514 0.775 1,273 2.50 0 1,173 1,012 9,098 25,502 1,623 0.775 1,257 0.00 0 1,257 1,012 17,770 0 173 0.775 134 0.00 ° 134 1,275 1,409 0 184 0.775 142 0.00 0 142 1/275 1417 Qo 195 0.775 151 0.00 0 isl 1,275 1,426 ° 205 0.775 159 0.00 0 159 1,275 1,434 ° 216 0.775 168 0.00 0 168 1,275 1,443 0 72 0.775 55 0.00 210 265 1,275 1,540 0 BL 0.775 63 0.30 420 483 1,275 1,758 0 92 0.775 7 0.60 0 7 1,275 1,346 ° 103 0.775 80 0.00 0 80 1,275 1,355 0 114 0.775 ‘88 0.00 0 88 1,275 1,363 ° 125 0.775 97 0.00 420 517 1.275 1,792 26,411 0 137 0.775 106 0.60 0 106 1,275 1,381 26,411 ° 149 0.775 115 0.00 ° 115 1,275 1,390 26,411 0 162 0.775 124 0.00 644 768 1,275 2,043 26,411 ° 173 0.775 134 0.92 ° 134 1,275 1,409 26/411 0 185 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1/275 1,419 26,411 ° 185 0.775 144 0.00 3,920 4,064 1,275 5,339 26,412 0 185 0.775 144 5.60 1,750 1,894 1,275 3,169 26.411 ° ~185 0.775 144 2.50 0 144 1.275 1,419 26-41} 0 185 0.775 144 0.00 ° 144 1,275 1,419 76.413 ° 185 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 26,412 0 2,225 185 0.775 144 0.00 ° 144 1,275 1,419 2A, ALL 2 2.225 135 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1275 1,419 26-627 0 2,225 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 76,414 o 2,223 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 0 2,225 0.775 144 0.00 210 354 1,275 1,629 0 2.225 0.775 144 0.30 420 364 1,275 1,839 0 2,225 0.775 144 0.60 0 144 1,275 1,419 9 2. 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 0 2 0.775 144 0.00 c 144 1,275 1,419 9 2 0.775 144 0.00 420 364 1,275 1,839 © 2. 0.775 144 0.60 ° 144 1,275 1,419 » ? 0.775 144 0.00 ° 144 1,275 1,419 0 0.775 144 0.00 644 788 2,275 2,062 3 0.775 144 0.92 9 144 1,275 1,419 0 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV(3.5): $74,407 NPV(4.5): $68,115 OLT UNALAS“A/DUTCH HARBOR PCVIER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATZ 3(2)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT -——~---—------~. oa en Ha ne i enn en pn ne TOTAL TOTAL DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION = PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcOsT COST cost COST YEE res /ye) ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1900 gai) ($/gal) ($1000) (MW) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) G 0 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 9 5,568 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3.920 4,982 1,012 11,562 © 8,398 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 12,327 9 6,913 1,514 0-841 1,273 2.50 ° 1,273 1,012 9,198 oO 15,501 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 ° 1,391 1,012 17,904 (8.675 ° 173 0.875 151 0.00 ° 151 1,275 1,426 29,842 ° 184 0.892 164 0.00 0 164 1,275 1,439 21,032 0 195 0.910 177 0.00 °o 177 1,275 1,452 2992 22,183 ° 205 0.928 191 0.00 0 191 1,275 1,466 1994 23,357 0 216 0.947. 205 0.00 0 205 1,275 1,480 i995 26,431 0 7 0.966 68 0.00 210 278 1,275 1,553 1996 26.411 ° BL 0.985 80 0.30 420 500 1,275 1.775 21997 26,411 0 92 1.005 92 0.60 0 92 1,275 1,367 1998 26,411 0 103 1.025 105 0.00 0 105 1,275 1,380 26,41) 0 114 1.046 119 0.00 ° 119 1,275 1,394 28,41) 0 125 1.067 134 0.00 420 554 1,275 1,829 26,412 0 137 1.088 149 0.60 0 149 1,275 1,424 26,411 0 149 1.110 165 0.00 °O 165 1,275 1,440 26,412 0 161 1.132 182 0.00 644 826 1,275 2,101 26,413 0 173 1.154 200 0.92 oO 200 1,275 1-475 76,432 0° 185 1.178 218 0.00 0 218 1,275 1,493 9 185 1.178 218 0.00 3,920 4.138 1,275 5,413 0 285 1.178 218 5.60 1,750 1,968 1,275 3,243 9 285 1.178 218 2.50 oO 218 1,275 1,493 0 385 1.178 218 0.00 0 218 1,275 1,493 O 185 1-178 218 9.00 0 218 1,275 1,493 ° 1e5 1.178 218 0.00 oO 218 1,275 1,493 0 185 1.178 218 9.00 ° 218 1.275 1,493 0 185 1.178 218 0.00 0 218 1,275 1,493 oO 185 1.178 218 0.00 ° 218 1.275 1,493 oO 242. 18S 1.178 218 0.00 210 428 1,275 1,703 °O 2.2 285 1.178 218 0.30 420 638 1,275 1,913 0 2,2) 185 1.178 218 0.60 0 218 1,275 1,493 26.4t1 9 272 185 1.178 718 0.00 oO 218 1,275 1,493 26,613 0 2,225 185 1.178 218 0.00 0 218 1,275 1,493 264th 9 2.225 185 1.178 218 0.00 420 638 1,275 1,913 26-423 0 2,225 185 1.178 218 0.60 9 218 1,275 1,493 26.421 0 2,225 185 1.178 218 0.00 ° 218 1,275 1,493 0 2,225 185 1.178 218 0.00 644 862 1,275 2,137 9 2.225 185 1.178 218 0.92 0 218 1,275 1,493 0 2,225 185 1.178 218 0.00 °O 218 1,275 1,493 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV(3.5): $75,503 NPV(4.5): $69,028 TLT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR P SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LO] GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 3(1)--HIGH FUEL FRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONFNT TOTAL TOTAL UCTION DZ FUEL FUEL FURL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST Cost cosT COST ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ° 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.876 1,106 0.00 3,920 5,026 1,012 11,606 8,398 16,652 1,388 0.876 1,216 5.60 1,750 2,966 1,012 12,376 6,913 18,162 1.514 0.876 1,326 2.50 0 1,326 1,012 9,251 15,502 19,455 1,621 0.907 1,470 0.00 0 1,470 1,012 17,983 0 2.075 173 0.938 162 0.00" 0 162 1,275 1,437 O 2,205 184 0.971 178 0.00 0 178 1,275 1,453 ° 2,335 195 1.005 196 0.00 0 196 1,275 1,471 0 2,465 205 1.040 214 0.00 0 214 1,275 1,489 0 2,595 216 1.077 233 0.00 °O 233 1,275 1,508 0 84? 7 1.115 79 0.00 210 289 1,275 1,564 oO 973 BL 1.154 94 0.30 420 514 1,275 1,789 0 1,102 92 1.194 110 0.60 0 110 1,275 1,385 ° 1,233 103 1.236 427 0.00 0 127 1,275 1,402 0 1,366 114 1.279 146 0.00 0 146 1,275 1,421 9 21,502 125 1.324 166 0.00 420 586 1,275 1,861 ° 1,641 137 1.370 187 0.60 0 187 1,275 1,462 9 1,783 149 1.418 211 0.00 oO 211 1,275 1,486 © 1,928 161 1.468 236 0.00 644 880 1,275 2,155 ° 2,075 173 1.519 263 0.92 oO 263 1,275 1,538 0 2,225 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 9 185 1.572 292 0.00 3,920 4,212 1,275 5,487 0 185 1.572 292 5-60 1,750 2,042 1,275 3,317 oO 185 4.572 292 2-50 0 292 1,275 1,567 0 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 0 285 1.572 292 0.00 ° 292 1,275 1,567 0 185 1.572 292 0.00 °O 292 1,275 1,567 9 185 1.572 292 0-00 °O 292 1,275 1,567 0° 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 oO 185 1.572 292 0-00 0 292 1,275 1,567 0 185 1.572 292 0.00 210 502 1,275 1,777 9 185 1.572 292 0.30 420 712 1,275 1,987 © 185 1.572 292 0.60 oO. 292 1,275 1,567 o 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 0 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 oO 185 1.572 292 0.00 420 712 1,275 1,987 0 185 1.572 292 0.60 0 292 1,275 1,567 0 185 1.572 292 0.00 ° 292 1,275 1,567 9 185 1.572 292 0.00 644 936 1,275 2,211 9 185 1.572 292 0.92 9 292 1,275 1,567 9 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 (1,602) (1,602) (1,602) NPV(3.5): $76,494 NPV(4.5): $69,846 elt UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWCR SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE ~-+-----------------------------------—--------—------------- TOTAL = TOTAL HYDROTOQNER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT § TOTAL OsM SYSTEM F TION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT cost COsT cost YEA? (MWh/yr) ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 0 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 5,994 ° 16,652 2,388 0.807 1,120 5.60 1,750 2,870 1,012 3,882 6,387 18,162 1,524 0.775 1,173 2.50 0 1,173 1,012 8,572 0° 14,367 1,181 0.775 915 0.00 0 915 1,062 1,977 9 15,462 1,288 0.775 999 0.00 0 999 1,062 2,061 0 16,759 1,397 0.775 1,082 0.00 Z 0 1,082 1,062 2,144 0 18,058 1,505 0.775 1,166 0.00 0 1,166 1,062 2,228 0 19,360 1,613 0.775 1,250 0.00 0 1,250 1,062 2,312 ° 20,664 1,722 0.775 1,335 0.00 1,750 3,085 1,062 4.147 0 21,972 1,831 0.775 1,419 2.50 210 1,629 1,062 2,692 9 22,097 1,842 0.775 1,427 0.30 420 1,847 1,062 2,909 ° 22,225 1,852 0.775 1,435 0.60 0 1,435 1,062 2,497 ° 22,356 1,263 0.775 1,444 0.00 ° 1,444 1,062 2,506 0 22,490 1,874 0.775 1,453 0.00 0 1,453 1,062 2,515 0 22,626 1,885 0.775 1,461 0.00 420 1,881 1,062 2,943 0 22,765 1,897 0.775 1,470 0.60 ° 1,470 1,062 24532 0 22,906 1,909 0.775 1.479 0.00 0 1,479 1,062 2,541 0 23,051 1,921 0.775 1,489 0.00 644 2,133 1,062 3,195 ° 23.198 1,933 0.775 1,498 0.92 Oo 1,498 1,062 2.560 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 3,920 5,428 1,062 6,490 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 5.60 1,750 3,258 1,062 4,320 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 2.50 1,508 1,062 2,570 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 ° 1,508 1,062 2,570 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 ° 1,508 1,062 2,570 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2.570 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 1,750 3,258 1,062 4,320 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 2.50 210 1,718 1,062 2,780 ° 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.30 420 1,928 1,062 2,990 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.60 0 1,508 1,062 2.570 9 23,249 1,946 0.775 1,308 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2.570 0 23,3249 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,370 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 420 1,928 1,062 2,990 0 23,249 2,946 0.775 1,508 0.60 0 1,508 1,062 2,370 0 23,49 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 0 22,249 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 644 2,152 1,062 3,214 o 23,249 2,946 0.775 1.508 9.92 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 9 23,249 1,966 0.775 3,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 (2,389) (2,389) (2,389) NPV(2.5): $67.89) NPV(4.5): $39,083 ect UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO VE C(3)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE ALTERNA DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT ‘TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cOsT COST cosT COST VELR (s1000) (1000 gat) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13-663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 9 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 5,994 0 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 3,929 6,387 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2-50 0 1,273 1,012 8,672 9 14,167 1,183 0.858 1,013 0.00 0 1,013 1,062 2,075 9 25,462 1, 288 0.875 1,127 0.00 0 1,127 1,062 2,189 0 16,759 1,397 0.892 1,246 0.00 0 1,246 1,062 2,308 0 18,058 1,505 0.910 1,370 0.00 0 1,370 1,062 2,432 0 19,366 1,613 0.928 1,498 0.00 0 1,498 1,062 2,560 0 29,664 1,722 0.947 1,631 0.00 1,750 3,381 1,062 4,443 0 22,97! 1,831 0.966 1,769 2.50 210 1,979 1,062 3,041 5 288 0 22,097 1,84) 0.985 1,814 0.30 420 2,234 1,062 3,296 5,288 0 22,225 1,852 1.005 1,861 0.60 0 1,861 1,062 2,923 3.288 oO 22,356 1,863 1.025 1,910 0.00 0 1,910 1,062 2,972 5,288 0 22,490 1,874 1.046 1,960 0.00 0 1,960 1,062 3,022 3,288 0 22,626 1,885 1.067 2,011 0.00 420 2,431 1,062 3,493 5,288 ° 22,765 1-897 1.088 2,064 0.60 ° 2,064 1,062 3,126 3,288 0 22,906 1,909 1.110 2,118 0.00 0 2.118 1,062 3,180 5,288 0 23,051 1,921 1.132 2,174 0.00 644 2,818 1,062 3,880 >, 288 ° 23,198 1,933 1.154 2,232 0.92 ° 2,232 1,062 3,294 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 ° 2,291 1,062 3,353 ° 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 3,920 6,211 1,062 7,273 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 5.60 1,750 4,041 1,062 5,103 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 2.50 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 oO 2,291 1,062 3,353 s 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 = 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 3 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 . oO 24,360 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 1,750 4,041 1,062 5,103 5 © 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 2.50 210 2,501 1,062 3,563 iB 9 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.30 420 2,711 1,062 3,773 a 0 23, 349 21,946 1.178 2,291 0.60 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 ° D2, 2469 1.946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2129) 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,253 9 23,249 1,946 1.178 2,291 9.00 420 2-711 1,062 3,773 5,298 6 23,249 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.60 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 B 0 23,349 1.946 1.178 2,291 0.90 oO 2,291 1,062 3,353 8 0 23,324° 1,946 1.178 2429) 0.00 644 2,935 1,062 3,997 0 P3249 1,946 1-178 +291 9.92 9 2,291 1,062 3,353 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,292 0.00 9 2,291 1,062 3,353 (2,389) (2,389) (2,389) NPV(3.5): $77,733 NPV(4.5): $67,000 vLT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR PCWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE .C(3)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE yD: DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL O&M SYSTEM INSTRUCTION DIESEL. ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COSTS PRODUCT: PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST cost cost x (61000) (Mvih/yt) (1090 a&1) ($/gai) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 9 0 15,152 1,263 0.876 1,106 0.00 3,920 5,026 1,012 6,038 0 16,652 1,388 0.876 1,216 5.60 1,750 2,966 1,012 3,978 6,387 18,362 1,514 0.876 1,326 2.50 ° 1,326 1,012 8.725 oO 14,167 1,181 0.907 1,070 0.00 0 1,070 1,062 2,132 2999 0 15,462 1,288 0.938 1,209 0.00 o 1,209 1,062 2,271 199° 0 16,759 1,397 0.971 1,356 0.00 0 1,356 1,062 2,418 1992 ° 18,058 1,505 1.005 1,513 0.00 O 1-513 1,062 2,575 Jags 0 19,360 1,613 1.040 1,679 0.00 0 1,679 1,062 2,741 1994 0 20,664 3,722 1.077 1,854 0.00 1,750 3,604 1,062 4,666 1995 0 21,971 1,831 1.115 2,041 2-50 210 2,251 1,062 3,313 996 ° 22,097 1,841 1.154 2,124 0.30 420 2,544 1,062 3,606 199° 0 22,225 “1,852 1.194 2,211 0.60 ° 2,211 1,062 3,273 998 5 0 22,336 1,863 1.236 2,802 0.00 oO 2.302 1,062 3,364 1999 5 0 22,490 1,874 1.279 2,397 0.00 0 2,397 1,062 3,459 3 ° 22,626 1,885 1.324 2.496 0.00 420 2,916 1,062 3,978 3 ° 22,765 1,897 1.370 2.599 0.60 0 2,599 1,062 3,661 5 oO 22,906 1,909 1.418 2.707 0.00 oO 2,707 1,062 3,769 5 0 23,051 1,921 1.468 2,819 0.00 644 3,463 1,062 4,525 5 9 23,198 1,933 1.519 2,936 0.92 oO 2,936 1,062 3,998 5 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4/121 3 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 3,920 6,979 1,062 8,041 5 O 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 5.60 1,750 4,809 1,062 5,871 5, 9 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 2-50 oO 3,059 1,062 4,121 5 © 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 5 o 23,349 1,946 1-572 3,059 0.00 ° 3,059 1,062 4,12) 3 © 23,249 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4,12) 3 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0-00 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 5 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 5 9 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 1,750 4,809 1,062 5,871 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 2.50 210 3,269 1,062 4,331 oO 23,349 1.946 1.572 3,039 0.30 420 3,479 1,062 4,541 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.60 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 9 23.349 14946 1.572 3,059 0.00 ° 3,059 1,062 4,121 0 23,249 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 9 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 420 3,479 1,062 4,541 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.60 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 9.00 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 644 3,703 1,062 4,765 ® 73,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.92 0 3,059 1,062 4121 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 (2,389) (2,389) (2,389) NPV(3.5): $86,839 NPV(4.5)3 $74,267 SLT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARTO BASE CASE--LOW FUE! PRICE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL FUEL FUEL FUEL ASDTTION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM i USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cosT cOsT rue /yr} ¢1eco aal) (S$/gal) ($1000) (Muh) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1,239 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 1,370 90.841 1,352 9.00 3,920 1,012 6,084 1,603 0.807 21,294 5.60 1,750 1,012 4,056 1,838 0.775 1,425 2.50 1,750 1,012 4,187 2,055 0.775 1,593 2.50 0 1,012 2,605 2,273 0.775 1,762 9.00 9 1,012 2,774 2,393 0.775 3,855 0.00 0 1,012 2,867 2,514 0.775 1,949 9.90 1,750 1,012 4,711 2,636 0.775 2,043 2-50 0 1,012 3,055 2,759 0.775 2,139 0-00 0 1,012 3,151 2,883 0.775 2,235 0.00 210 1,012 3,457 2,910 0.775 2.235 0.30 420 1,012 3,687 2,937 0.775 21276 0.60 0 1,012 3,288 33,589 2,966 0.775 2,299 0.00 0, 1-012 3,311 35,946 2,995 0.775 2,322 0.00 0 1,012 3,334 36,317 3,026 0.775 2,346 0.00 420 1,012 3.778 36,704 3,059 0.775 2,371 0.60 0 1,012 3,383 37,106 3,092 0.775 2,397 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,159 37,525 3,127 0.775 2,424 2-50 644 1,012 4,080 37,961 3,163 0.775 2,432 0.92 oO 1,012 3,464 38,415 3,201 0.775 2,481 0.00 . 0 1,012 3,493 28,415 3,201 0.775 2,481 0.00 3,920 1,012 7413 38,415 3,201 0.775 2/482 5.60 - 1,750 1,012 5,243 3,201 0.775 2,481 2.50 1,750 1,012 5,243 3,201 0.775 2,482 2-50 oO 1,012 3,493 3,201 0.775 2,482 9.00 O 1,012 3,493 3,201 0.775 2,482 0.00 ° 1,012 3,493 3,201 0.775 2,481 9.00 1.750 1,012 5,243 3,201 0.775 2,482 2.50 0 1,012 3,493 3,201 9.775 2,481 9.00 9 1,012 3,493 3,291 0.775 2,48) 0.00 210 1,012 3,703 3-201 0.775 2,4RL 9.30 420 1,012 3,913 3,201 0.775 2,48) 0.60 0 1,012 3,493 4,202 9.775 2,48) 0.90 ° 1,012 3,493 3,202 0.775 2,48> 0.00 0 1,012 * 3,493 3,201 | 5.00 420 21,9012 3,913 3,202 2 0.60 0 1,012 3,493 7201 5 9.00 1,750 1,012 5,243 3,201 >. 2.50 644 1,012 4,137 34202 3 9.92 9 1,012 3,493 3,201 2 0.90 0 1,012 3,493 (3,964) (3,964) NPV(3.5): $81,242 NPV(4.5): $69,682 9LT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM FLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARTO BASE CASE. --MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL 2 7 FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCREDULE cosT COST cosT (sup/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 1,012 6,084 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 1,012 4,110 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2-50 1,750 1,012 4,308 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,012 2-775 27,279 2,273 0.875 1,989 0.00 O 1,012 3,001 28,72) 2,393 0.892 2,136 0.00 0 1,012 3,148 30.274 2,514 0-910 2,289 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,051 31,638 2,636 0.928 2,448 2.50 0 1,012 3,460 33,113 2,759 0.947 2,613 0.00 oO 1,012 3,625 34,609 2,883 0.966 2,785 0.00 210 1,012 4,007 34.917 2,910 0.985 2,867 0.30 420 1,012 4,299 6 2,937 1.005 2,952 0.60 0 1.012 3,964 ‘ 2,966 1.025 3,040 9.00 Oo , 1,012 4,052 45,946 2,995 1.046 3,132 0.00 ° 1,012 4,144 26,317 3,026 1-067 3,228 0.00 420 1,012 4,660 36.704 3,059 1.088 3,327 0.60 0 1,012 4,339 3,092 1.110 R.43h 0.00 1,750 1,012 6,193 3,127 1.132 3,539 2.50 644 1-012 5,195 3,163 1.154 3.652 0.92 °O 1,012 4,664 3,203 1.178 3,770 0.00 O 1,012 4,782 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.00 3,920 1,012 8,702 38,425 3,201 1.178 3,770 5.60 1,750 1,012 6-532 28,415 3-201 1.178 3,770 2-50 1,750 1,012 6,532 38,415 3,201 1.178 3,770 2.50 0 1,012 4,782 38,415 3,201 1.178 3,770 9.00 Oo 1,012 4,782 38,425 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.00 0 1,012 4,782 12 38,415 3,201 1.278 3,770 0.00 1,750 1,012 6-532 2013 38-435 3,201 1.178 3,770 2.50 0 1,012 4,782 O14 38,415 3,20) 1-178 3,770 0.00 O 1,012 4,782 2025 38-415 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.00 210 1,012 4,992 2026 28,415 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.30 420 1,012 5,202 C27 38,415 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.60 0 1,012 4,782 i) 38,415 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.00 0 1,012 4,782 38.405 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.00 0 1,012 4,782 3,201 1.178 3.770 9.00 420 1,012 3,202 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.60 0 1,012 4,782 3,202 1.178 4,770 9.00 2,730 1,012 6,532 3,292 1.178 3,770 2.50 644 1,012 5,426 3,201 1.178 9.92 9 1,012 4,782 3,202 1.178 9.90 0 1,012 4,782 (3,964) (3,964) NPV(3.5): $97,293 NeV(4.5): $82,567 LLT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TE GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE---HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 2,273 2,393 2-514 2,636 2,759 2,883 2,910 2,937 2,966 2,995 3,026 3,059 3,092 3,127 3,163 3,201 3,201 3,202 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,202 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,202 3-201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 2 3,201 2025 38,415 3,201 ON/REPLACEMENT O&M DULE cost COST (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 2.50 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0-00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0-30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 2-50 9.92 0.00 0 1,012 3,920 1,012 1,750 1,012 1,750 1,012 0 1,012 o 1,012 0 1,012 1,750 1,012 0 1,012 0 1,012 210 ~=—-1,012 420. 1,012 0 1,012 0, 21,012 0 1,012 420 1,012 0 1,012 1,750 1,012 644 1,012 vo} 1,012 ° 1,012 3,920 1,012 1,750 1,012 1,750 1,012 0 1,012 oO 1,012 0 1,012 1,750 1,012 0 1,012 9 1,012 210 1,012 420 1,012 0 1,012 9 1,012 0 1,012 420 1,012 0 1,012 1,750 1,012 644 1,012 0 1,012 0 1,012 (3,964) TOTAL SYSTEM CcOsT ($1000) 2,009 6,132 4,166 4,372 2,875 3,145 3,337 5,290 3,755 3,983 4,436 4,788 4,519 4,677 4,843 5,438 5,202 7,147 6,245 5,817 6,045 9,965 7,795 7.795 6,045 6,045 6,045 7.795 6,045 6,045 6,255 6,465 6,045 6,045 6,045 6,465 6,045 7,793 6,689 6,045 6,045 (3,964) NPV(3.5):$112,121 Npv(4.5): $94,384 BLT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE ME, COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT oe ae am wr TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM Gi GEOTHERMAL, COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST COST CcOsT ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (MW) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 0 13,663 1-139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 2,009 oO 5,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 0 7,832 19,233 1,603 0.807 1,294 5-60 1,750 3,044 1,012 11,888 9 4,536 22,058 1,838 0.775 1,425 2-50 1,750 3,175 1,012 8,723 0 14,095 24,664 2,055 0.775 1,593 2.50 oO 1,593 1,012 16,700 24,531 Oo 2,728 227 0.775 176 0.00 oO 176 1-275 1,451 25,849 0 2,872 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 27,157 ° 3,017 251 0.775 195 0.00 ° 195 1,275 1,470 28,474 ° 3,164 264 0.775 204 0.00 0 204 1,275 1,479 33,113 0 0 ° 0.775 0 0.00 oO 0 1,275 1,275 33,113 0 1,488 124 0.775 96 0.00 210 306 1,275 1,581 33,113 ° 1,804 150 0.775 117 0.30 420 537 1,275 1,812 33,113 0 2,133 178 0.775 138 0.60 0 138 1,275 1,413 33,113 0 2,476 206 0.775 160 0.00 °O 160 1,275 1,435 33,113 0 2,833 236 0.775 * 183 0.00 0 183 1,275 1,458 33,113 oO 3,205 267 0.775 207 0.00 420 627 1,275 1,902 33,113 0 3,591 299 0.775 232 0.60 0 232 1,275 1,507 33,113 0 3,994 333 0.775 258 0.00 0 258 1,275 1,533 33,113 0 4,412 368 0.775 285 0.00 644 929 1,275 2,204 33,113 0 4,848 404 0.775 313 0.92 0 313 1,275 1,588 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 3,920 4,262 1,275 5,537 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 5.60 1,750 2,092 1,275 3,367 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 2.50 1,750 2,092 1,275 3,367 43,113 0 3,302 442 0.775 342 2.50 0 342 1,275 1,617 33.13 oO 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 Oo 342 1,275 1,617 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 oO 342 1,275 1,617 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 oO 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 210 552 1,275 1,827 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.30 420 762 1,275 2,037 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.60 0 342 1,275 1,617 9 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 9 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 420 762 1,275 2,037 0 5,202 442 0.775 342 0.60 0 342 1,275 1,617 9 5,302 ' 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 0 5,30? 442 0.775 342 0.00 644 986 1,275 2,261 oO 3,302 442 0.775 342 0.92 °O 342 1,275 1,617 0 3,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) NPV(3.5): $75,694 NPV(4.5): $68,879 6LT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT ------- ----~--~-- ---- -------- TOTAL, TOTAL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPI.ACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcosT COsT cost COsT YEAR ($1000) (Mwh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 9 5,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 1987 Qo 7,832 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 11,942 1988 9 4,536 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2-50 1,750 3,296 1,012 8,844 1989 ° 14,095 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,763 1,012 16,870 1990 24,551 ° 2,728 227 0.875 199 0-00 0 199 1,275 1,474 199} 235,849 0 2,872 239 0.892 214 0.00 0 214 1,275 1,489 31992 27,157 0 3,017 251 0.910 229 0.00 ° 229 1,275 1,504 1993 28,474 0 3,164 264 0.928 245 0.00 0 245 1,275 1,520 1994 33,113 0 9 oO 0.947 0 0.00 0 ° 1,275 1,275 1995 33,113 0 1,488 124 0.966 120 0.00 210 330 1,275 1,605 1996 33,113 9 1,804 150 0.985 148 0.30 420 568 1,275 1,843 Lea? 33,11 0 2/133 178 1.005 179 0.60 0 179 1,275 1,454 1998 33,113 0 2,476 206 1.025 212 0.00 oO 212 1,275 1,487 1999 33,112 ° 2,833 236 1.046 247 0.00 ° 247 1,275 1,522 2000 33,113 0 3,205 267 1.067 285 0.00 420 705 1,275 1,980 29903 33,113 0 3,591 299 1.088 326 0.60 0 326 1,275 1,601 2002 33,113 ° 3,994 333 1.110 369 0.00 0 369 1,275 1,644 20023 33,113 0 4,412 368 1.132 416 0.00 644 1,060 1,275 2,335 2004 WLLL 0 4,848 404 1.154 466 0.92 ° 466 1,275 1,741 2005 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 ° 520 1,275 1,795 2006 23-113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 3,920 4,440 1,275 5,715 2007 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 5.60 1,750 2.270 1,275 3,545 33,113 0 5,302 * 442 1.178 520 2-50 1,750 2,270 1.275 3,545 33,1123 oO 5,302 442 1.178 520 2.50 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 ° 5.302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,302 442 1-178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,133 0 3,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 ° 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,30? 442 1.178 520 0.00 210 730 1,275 2,005 33.113 0 53,302 442 1.178 520 0.30 420 940 1,275 2.215 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.60 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,30? 442 1.178 520 0.00 420 940 1,275 2,215 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.60 0 520 1,275 1,795 33,133 ° 5,302 442 1-178 520 0-00 o 520 1,275 1,795 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 644 1,164 1,275 2,439 23,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.92 0 520 1,275 1.795 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) . NPV(3.5): $77,837 7 NPV(4.5): $70,613 O8T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT arin TOTAL TOTAL FUSL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM CONSTRUCTION DIES COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcOsT CcOsT CcosT cost YES ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 5.568 16,435 1,370 0.876 1,200 0.00 3,920 5,120 1,012 11,700 7,832 19,233 1,603 0.876 1,404 5.60 1,750 3,154 1,012 11,998 1988 4,536 22,038 1,838 0.876 1,610 2-50 1,750 3,360 1,012 8,908 1989 14,095 24,664 2,055 0.907 1,863 2-50 ° 1,863 1,012 16,970 ° 2.728 227 0.938 213 0.00 0. 213 1,275 1,488 0 2,872 239 0.971 232 0.00 0 232 1,275 1,507 Oo 3,017 251 1.005 253 0.00 oO 253 1,275 1,528 0 3,164 | 264 1.040 274 0.00 0 274 1,275 1,549 oO 9 ° 1.077 ° 0.00 °O 0 1,275 1,275 0 1,488 124 1.115 138 0.00 210 348 1,275 1,623 oO 1,804 150 1.154 173 0.30 420 593 1,275 1,868 0 2,133 178 1.194 212 0.60 0 212 1,275 1,487 0 2.476 206 1.236 255 0.00 Oo 255 1,275 1,530 0 2,833 236 1.279 402 0.00 ° 302 1,275 1,577 ° 3,205 267 1.324 353 0.00 420 773 1,275 2,048 0 3,591 299 1.370 410 0.60 0 410 1,275 1,685 0 3,994 333 1-418 472 0.00 oO 472 16275 1,747 33,113 0 4,412 368 1.468 540 0.00 644 1,184 1,275 2,459 33,113 0 4,848 404 1.519 614 0.92 Oo 614 1,275 1,889 33,113 ° 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 ° 695 1,275 1,970 33,113 ° 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 3,920 4,615 1,275 5,890 2007 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 5.60 1,750 2,445 1,275 3,720 2008 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 2.50 1,750 2,445 1,275 3,720 2009 23,213 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 2.50 0 695 1,275 1,970 33,233 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 Oo 695 1,275 1,970 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 0 695 1,275 1,970 33,213 o 3,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 oO 695 1,275 1,970 33,133 0 5,30? 442 1.572 695 0.00 ° 695 1,275 1,970 Vel ° 5.302 442 1.572 695 0.00 0 695 1,275 1,970 32,113 0 53,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 210 905 1,275 2,180 7 0 5,302 442 1.572° 695 0.30 420 1,115 1,275 2,390 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.60 0 695 1,275 1,970 ° 5,20? 442 1.572 695 0.00 0 695 1,275 1,970 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 0 695 1,275 1,970 9 5.202 442 1.572 695 0.00 420 1,115 1.275 2,390 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.60 0 695 1,275 1,970 oO 5,302 M42 1.572 695 9.00 0 695 1,275 *1,970 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 644 1,339 1,275 2,614 9 53,302 442 1.572 695 9.92 oO 695 1,275 1,970 0 5,302 4G2 1.572 695 0.00 0 695 1,275 1,970 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) NPV(3.5): $79,818 NPV(4.5): $72,204 T8T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODCPATE GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE B(1)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT mae ee een on nnn nnn nnn nn nine Seen nnn = TOTAL, TOTAL DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST cosT CcOosT ($1000) (MWh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/qal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 5,568 16,435 1.370 0-841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 8,398 19,233 1,603 0.807 1,294 5-60 1,750 3,044 1,012 12,454 6,913 22,058 1,838 0.775 1,425 2.50 1,750 3,175 1,012 11,100 15,501 24,664 2,055 0.775 1,593 2-50 0 1,593 1,012 18,106 oO 867 72 0.775 56 0.00 Oo 56 1,275 1,331 0 2,310 192 0.775 149 0.00 ° 149 1,275 1,424 0 3,76? 314 0.775 243 0.00 ° 243 1,275 1,518 0 5,226 436 0.775 338- 0.00 0 338 1,275 1,613 ° 1702 558 0.775 433 0.00 0 433 1,275 1,708 0 8,189 682 0.775 529 0.00 210 739 1,275 2,014 9 8,505 709 0.775 549 0.30 420 969 1,275 24244 ° 8,835 736 0.775 571 0.60 oO 571 1,275 1,846 9 9,178 765, 0.775 393 0.00 0 593 1,275 1,868 0 9,535 795 0.775 616 0.00 0 616 1,275 1,891 ° 9,906 826 0.775 640 0.00 420 1,060 1,275 2,335 oO 10,293 858 0.775 665 0.60 ° 665 1,275 1,940 0 10,695 891 0.775 691 0.00 0 691 1,275 1,966 0 UL,114 926 0.775 718 0.00 644 1,362 1,275 2,637 ° 11,550 962 0.775 746 0.92 ° 746 1,275 2,021 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775, 0.00 ° 775 1,275 2,050 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 3,920 4,695 1,275 5,970 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 5.60 1,750 2,525 1,275 3,800 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 2.50 1,750 2,525 1,275 3,800 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 2.50 0 775 1,275 2,050 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 oO 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 - 0 775 1,275 2,050 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 Oo 775 1,275 2,050 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 ° 775 1,275 2,050 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0-00 210 985 1,275 2,260 oO 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.30 420 1,195 1,275 2.470 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775, 0.60 0 775 1-275 2,050 Oo 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 oO 775 1,275 2,050 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 9 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 420 1,195 1,275 2,470 0 12,004 2,000 0.775 775 0.60 0 775 1,275 2,050 9 12,094 1,000 0-775 775 0.00 9 775 1,275 2,050 oO 12,004 0.775 775 0.00 644 1,419 1,275 2,694 Dp} 127,004 0.775 075 0.92 ° 775 1-275 2,050 0 22,006 0.775 775 0.00 0 775, 1,275 2,050 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) NPY(3.5): $85,522 NPU(4.5)2 677,391 281 UNALASKA/DUTCH! HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. MODERATE. GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(1)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT nn nnn a cn ee — TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT cOsT cost cOosT ($1000) (Mwh/yr ) (1000 gat) ($/gal) ($1000) (MW) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 3,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 = 11-652 8,398 19,233 1,603 0-841 1,348 5-60 1,750 3,098 1,012 12,508 6,913 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3,296 1,012 11,221 15,502 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,763 1,012 18,276 0 867 72 0.875 63 0.00 ° 63 1,275 1,338 0 2,310 192 0.892 172 0.00 ° 172 1,275 1,447 o 3.762 314 0.910 285 0.00 Oo 285 1,275 1,560 0 5,226 436 0.928 404 0.00 0 404 1,275 1,679 9 6,702 558 0.947 529 0.00 oO 529 1.275 1,804 0 8,189 682 0.966 659 0.00 210 869 1,275 2,144 0 8,505 709 0.985 698 0.30 420 1,118 1,275 2,393 0 8,835 736 1.005 740 0.60. 0 740 1,275 2,015 ° 9,178 765 1.025 7p4 0.00 o 784 1,275 2,059 ° 9,535 795 1.046 831 0.00 0 831 16275 2,106 0 9,906 826 1.067 880 0-00 420 1,300 1,275 2.575 oO 10,293 858 1.088 933 0.60 0 933 1,275 2,208 0 10,695 891 1-110 989 0.00 oO 989 1,275 2,264 0 11,114 926 1.132 1,048 0.00 644 1,692 1,275 2,967 ° 21,550 962 1.154 1lll 0.92 ° Ll 1,275 2,386 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 ° 1,178 1,275 2.453 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 3,920 5,098 1,275 6,373 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 5.60 1,750 2,928 1,275 4,203 ° 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 2.50 1,750 2.928 1,275 4,203 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 2-50 0 1,178 1.275 2,453 ° 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 1,178 1,275 2,453 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 ° 1,178 1,275 2,453 oO 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2.453 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 oO 1,178 1,275 2,453 oO 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 oO 1,178 1,275 2,453 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 210 1,388 1,275 2,663 9 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.30 420 1,598 1,275 2,873 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.60 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 9 12,004 1,000 1-178 1,178 9.00 i) 1,178 1,275 2,453 0 12,004 1,900 1.178 1,178 0-00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 9 1 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 420 1,598 1,275 2,873 0 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.60 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 o 2,909 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 ° 1.178 1,178 0.90 644 1,822 1,275 3,097 9 1.178 1.178 9.92 9 1,178 1,275 2.453 © 1.178 1,178 0.00 90 1,178 1,275 2,45% (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) NPV(3.5): $90,235 NPV(4.5): $81,227 €8T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERN®TIVE 3(1)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT 3 ae eee e+ TOTAL TOTAL € CONSTRUCTION FUEL ADDITION/REPILACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM me COSTS = FRODUCTION USE COST SCHEDULE CcOsT cosT COST cosT ($1000) (Mvin/yr ) (2000 gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) . ° 13,662 1,139 997 0-00 0 997 1,012 2,009 5,568 16,435 1,370 1,200 0.00 3,920 5,120 1,012 11,700 8,398 19,233 1,603 1,404 5.60 1,750 3,154 1,012 12,564 6.913 22,058 1,838 1,610 2-50 1,750 3,360 1,012 11,285 15,501 24,664 2,055 1,863 2.50 0 1,863 1,012 18,376 ° 867 72 68 0.00 0 68 1,275 1,343 0 2,310 192 187 0.00 0 187 1,275 1,462 0 3,762 314 315 0.00 0 315 1,275 1,590 0 5,226 436 453 0.00 0 453 1,275 1,728 0 6,702 558 601 0.00 0 601 1,275 1,876 0 8,189 682 761 0.00 210 971 1,275 2,246 0 8,505 709 818 0.30 420 1,238 1,275 2,513 0 8,835 736 879 0.60 0 879 1,275 2,154 0 9,178 765 "945 0-00 °O 945 1,275 2,220 0 9,535 795 1,016 0.00 0 1,016 1,275 2,291 0 9,906 826 1,093 0.00 420 1,513 1,275 2.788 0 10,293 858 1,175 0.60 ° 1,175 1,275 2,450 ° 10,695 891 1,264 0.00 0 1,264 1,275 2,539 0 11,114 926 1,359 0.00 644 2,003 1,275 3,278 0 11,550 962 1,462 0.92 0 1,462 1,275 2,737 0 12,004 1,000 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 oO 12,004 1,000 1,573 0.00 3,920 5,493 1,275 6,768 0 12,004 1,000 1,573 5.60 1,750 3,323 1,275 4,598 ° 12,004 1,000 1,573 2.50 1,750 3,323 1,275 4,598 ° 12,004 1,000 1,573 2.50 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 oO 12,004 1,900 1,573 0.00 1,573 1,275 2,848 0 12,004 1,009. 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 0 12,004 1,000 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 ° 12,004 1,000 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 0 12,904 1,900 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 0 12,004 1,090 1,573 0.00 210 1,783 1,275 3,058 9 12.984 1,000 1,573 9.30 420 1,993 1,275 3,268 0 12,004 1,000 1,573 0.60 oO 1,573 1,275 2,848 9 12,004 1,909 1,573 9.00 9 1,573 1,275 2,848 0 1,000 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 7,848 9 2,009 1,573 9.00 420 1,993 1,275 3,268 9 1,906 1,573 0.60 oO 1,573 1,275 2,848 © 2,900 1,573 0.00 Qo 1,573 1,275 2,848 ° 1,000 1,573 0.00 644 2,217 1,275 3,492 9 1,900 1,573 0.92 oO 1,573 1,275 2,848 ° 1,000 1,523 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 (1,864) (1,864) (1,864) NPV(3.5): $94,783 NPV(4.5): $84,782 v8 UNALASYA/OUTCH HARBOR POWER SVSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODIP TE GROWTH SCENARIO 7(3)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE ALTERNATIVE DIESEL COMPONENT ne a a TOTAL TOTAL FUEL, FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST cosT cosT VES ($1000) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1600) ($1000) 0 13,6623 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2-009 9 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00' 3,920 5,072 1,012 6,084 0 19,233 1,603 0.807 1,294 5-60 1,750 3,044 1,012 4,056 6,387 22,058 1,838 0.775 1,425 2.50 0 1,425 1,012 8,824 0 19,376 1,615 0.775 1,251 0.00 1,750 3,001 1,062 4,063 ° 21,991 1,833 0.775 1,420 2.50 0 1,420 1,062 2,482 0 23,433 1,953 0.775 1,513 0.00 0 1,513 1,062 2,575 oO 24,886 2.074 0.775 1,607 0.00 oO 1,607 1,062 2,669 0 26,350 2,196 0.775 1,702 0.00 0 1,702 1,062 2,764 ° 27,825 2,319 0.775 1,797 0.00 1,750 3.547 1,062 4,609 0 29,312 2,443 0.775 1,893 2.50 210 2,103 1,062 3,165 oO 29,629 2,469 0.775 1,914 0.30 420 2,334 1,062 3.396 ° 29,958 2,49? 0.775 1,935 0.60 0 1,935 1,062 2,997 0 30,301 2,525 0.775 1,957 0.00 Oo 1,957 1,062 3,019 0 30,658 2,555 0.775 1,960 0.00 0 1,980 1,062 3,042 0 31,029 2,586 0.775 2,004 0.00 420 2,424 1,062 3,486 0 31,416 2,618 0.775 2,029 0.60 0 2,029 1,062 3,091 ° 31,818 2.65? 0.775 2,055 0.00 °O 2,055 1,062 3,117 0 32,237 2,686 0.775 2,082 0.00 644 2,726 1,062 3,788 0 32,673 2,723 0.775 2,110 0.92 0 2,110 1,062 3,172 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 0 2,140 1,062 3,202 o 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 3,920 6,060 1,062 74122 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 5.60 1,750 3,890 1,062 4,952 O 33,127 2,761 0.775 2.140 2.50 0 2,140 1,062 3,202 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 1,750 3,890 1,062 4,952 oO 33-127 2,761 0.775 2.140 2.50 0 2,140 1,062 3,202 O 33, 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 to) 2,140 1,062 3,202 5y ° 33,12? 2,761 0.775 2.140 0.00 ° 2,140 1,062 3,202 3, 0 33,127 2,76) 0.775 2.140 0.00 0 2,140 1,062 3,202 3 ° 33,127 2.761 0.775 2.140 0.00 1,750 3,890 1,062 4,952 5 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 2.50 210 2,350 1,062 3,412 5 9 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.30 420 2,560 1,062 3,622 5 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.60 0 2,140 1,062 3,202 3 ° 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 Oo 2,140 1,062 3.202 5 0 33,127 2) 161 0.775 2,140 0.00 0 2,140 1,062 3,202 3 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 420 2.560 1,062 3.622 5 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.60 oO 2.140 1,062 3,202 5 9 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 ° 2,140 1,062 3,202 5 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2-140 0.00 644 2,784 1,062 3,846 3 0 33,127 2.76) 9.775 2/140 0.92 0 2.140 1,062 3,202 3. 0 33,127 2,761 0.775 2,140 0.00 0 2,140 1,062 3,202 (2,739) (2,739) (2,739) NPV(3.5): $80,245 NPV(4.5): $69,507 S8T UNSLASKA /DUTCH HARBOR POMER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSTS MODERATE GROWTH SCEN4R210 ALTEPNATIVE C(3)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT ee oe nee nnn nnmmmnnnnnna= TOTAL TOTAL DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT ‘TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cosT CcosT cosT ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ° 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 0 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0-00 3,920 5,072 1,012 6,084 0 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 4,110 6,387 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 0 1,546 1,012 8,945 0 19,376 1,615 0.858 1,385 0.00 1,750 3,135 1,062 4,197 0 22,991 2,833 0.875 1,603 2.50 0 1,603 1,062 2,665 oO 23,433 1,953 0.892 1,743 0.00 0 1,743 1,062 2,805 0 24,886 2-074 0.910 1,888 0.00 °o 1,888 1,062 2,950 0 26,350 2,196 0.928 2,039 0.00 0 2,039 1,062 3,101 0 27,825 2.319 0.947 2,196 0.00 1,750 3,946 1,062 5,008 0 29,312 2,443 0.966 2,360 2.50 210 2,570 1,062 3,632 ° 29,629 2.469 0.985 2.433 0.30 420 2,853 1,062 3,915 0 29,958 2,497 1.005 2,509 0.60 0 2,509 1,062 3,571 9 30,301 2,525 1.025 2.989 0.00 0 2,589 1,062 3,651 0 30,653 2,535 1.046 2,671 0.00 0 2,671 1,062 3,733 0 31,029 2,586 1.067 2,758 0.00 420 3,178 1,062 4,240 ° 31,416 2,618 1.088 2,848 0.60 0 2,848 1,062 3,910 oO 31,818 2,652 1-110 2,942 0.00 oO 2,942 1,062 4,004 0 32,237 2,686 1.132 3,041 0.00 644 3,685 1,062 4,747 0 32,673 2,723 1.154 3,143 0.92 oO 3.143 1,062 4,205 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 ° 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 3,920 7171 1,062 8,233 0 33,127 2,761 1-178 3,251 5.60 © 1,750 5,001 1,062 6,063 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 2.50 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,1277 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 1,750 5,001 1,062 6,063 oO 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 2.50 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 ° 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3-251 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 34251 0.00 1,750 5,001 1,062 6-063 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 2-50 210 3,461 1,062 4,523 oO 33,12? 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.30 420 3,671 1,062 4,733 ° 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.60 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,127 2,761 1-178 3,251 0.00 ° 3,251 1,062 4,313 ° 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0-00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3.251 0.00 420 3,671 1,062 4,733 ° 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.60 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 Qo 23.327 2.761 1.178 3,251 9.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 0 33,227 2,76). 1.178 3,251 0.00 644 3,895 1,062 4,957 0 33.127 2,763 1.178 3,251 9.92 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 ° 33,127 2,761 1-178 3,232 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 (2,739) (2.739) (2.739) NPV(3.5): $94,011 NPV(4.5): $80,551 98 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODFRATF GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE HYD2OPOWDR COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT wa--n-- .----------------------------- +--+ +--+ === === ---------- = TOTAL, TOTAL HYTROPOWVIER T DIESEL FULL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM 2 LON COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST cost COST YEAR (Muh/yr ) ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 Oo 26,435 1,370 0.876 1,200 0.00 3-920 5,120 1,012 6-132 0 19,233 1,603 0.876 1,404 5.60 1,750 3,154 1,012 4,166 6,387 22,058 1,838 0.876 1,610 2-50 Oo 1,610 1,012 9,009 0 19,376 1,615 0.907 1,464 0.00 1,750 3,214 1,062 4,276 oO 21,991 1,833 0.938 1,720 2-50 oO 1,720 1,062 2.782 oO 23,4233 1,953 0.971 1,897 0.00 oO 1,897 1,062 2,959 1992 ° 24,886 2.074 1.005 2,085 0.00 oO 2,085 1,062 3,147 1993 0 26,350 2,196 1.040 2,285 0.00 0 2,285 1,062 3,347 L994 0 27,825 2.319 1.077 2.497 0.00 1,750 4.247 1,062 5,309 2995 0 29,31? 2,443 1-115 2,722 2-50 210 2,932 1,062 3,994 1996 0 29,629 2,469 1.154 2,848 0.30 420 3,268 1,062 4,330 199° 5.288 0 29,958 2.497 1.194 2,98) 0.60 0 2,981 1,062 4,043 1999 5,288 Oo 30,301 2,525 1.236 3,120 0.00 °O 3.120 1,062 4,182 7999 8 0 30,658 2,555 1.279 3,267 0.00 0 3,267 1,062 4,329 2000 3,288 Qo 31,029 2,586 1.324 3,423 0.00 420 3,843 1,062 4,905 5,288 0 31,416 2,618 1.370 3,587 0.60 0 3,587 1,062 4,649 3,288 °o 31,818 2.652 1.418 3.760 0.00 0 3,760 1,062 4.822 5,288 0 32,237 2,686 1.468 3,943 0.00 644 4,587 1,062 5,649 5,288 0 32.673 2.723 1.519 4,136— 0.92 oO 4,136 1,062 5,198 3,788 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 3,288 0 33,127 2.761 1.572 4,340 0.00 3,920 8,260 1,062 9,322 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 5.60 1,750 6,090 1,062 7,152 3,288 oO 33.127 2,761 1.572 4,340 2.50 oO 4,340 1,062 5,402 5,28 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 1,750 6,090 1,062 74152 5,288 oO 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 2.50 oO 4,340 1,062 5,402 3,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 0 33,127 2,76) 1.572 4,340 0.00 1,750 6,090 1,062 7-152 0 33,12? 2,761 1.572 4,340 2.50 210 4,550 1,062 5,612 oO 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.30 420 4,760 1,062 5,822 ° 33,127 2,761 1-572 4,340 0.60 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 oO 33,127 2,76) 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4.340 1,062 5,402 0 33,129 2,763 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 0 33,127 ?, 761 1.572 4,340 0.00 420 4.760 1,062 5,822 QO 33,127 2,763 1.572 4,340 0.60 | 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 Dan 9 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 9 4,340 1,062 5,402 0 33,127 2,763 1.572 4,340 0.00 644 4,984 1,062 6,046 Qo 33.127 2,761 1.572 4,340 9.92 oO 4,340 1,062 5,402 0 33,12? 2,764 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 ~5,402 (2,739) (2,739) (2,739) NPV(3.5)2$106, 746 NPV(4.5): $90,696 L81 UN ALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR FOWDR SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 30,171 54,508 38,376 62,467 66,804 72-437 6,324 81,422 86,885 92.7 92. 92,7 BASE CASE--LO- FUEL USE (10900 gal) HIGH GPOWTH SCENE2 50 PRICE ESCALATION RATE scCHue (Mw) 0.00 0.00 -60 -50 +50 -50 -00 +50 -00 -50 +00 -30 -10 +50 -00 +50 -10 -00 -50 +42 +50 -00 -60 -50 +50 +50 -00 -50 -00 -50 +00 +30 +10 -50 -00 NUNDYNONWADONONONNWNUONUNOWNONWOONONONNNYU ADD ETTON/REPLACEMENT cost ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 1,750 ° 1,750 °O 1,750 0 210 2.170 1,750 oO 1,750 2,170 ° 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 0 210 2,170 1,750 9 1,750 2,170 0 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 (12,627) 08M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 + 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1-012 1,012 NPV(3. NPV(4.. TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 6,119 4,169 4,367 4,603 3,096 5,029 3,459 5,407 3,875 4,302 6,422 6,282 4,782 6,796 7,497 5,625 7,692 8,665 8.374 7,003 10,923 8,753 8.753 8,753 7,003 8,753 7,003 8,753 7,003 7,213 9,173 8,753 7,003 8,753 9,173 7,003 8,753 9,397 8,753 7,003 (12,627) 2$131,728 2$110,476 88T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS BIGH GRC BASE CASE--MEDIUM FU! ESCALATION RATE TOTAL DIESEL. FUEL, FUEL FUEL AmDTTION/REPLACEMENT Oem SYSTEM PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cosT COST YER ime /yr) (1000 gal) (S/aat) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 985 13,662 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 86 16,9461 1.412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 1,012 6,119 198? 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 1,012 4,228 L98B 24,844 2,070 0.84) 1,74) 2.50 1,750 1,012 4,503 1989 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 1,750 1,012 4,800 "a99 22,265 2,689 0.875 2,352 2-50 0 1,012 3,364 yaa 35,104 2,925 0.892 2,611 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,373 1992 37,884 3,157 0.910 2,874 2.50 ° 1,012 3,886 199% 40,9556 3,413 0.928 3,169 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,931 1994 44,33) 3,694 0.947 3,499 2.50 . 0 1,012 4,511 5 47,690 3,974 0.966 3,839 0.00 210 1,012 5,061 1996 390,17) 4,181 0.985 4,120 0.30 2,170 1,012 74302 199? 54,508 4,542 1.005 4,565 3.10 1,750 1,012 7,327 1998 58,376 4,865 1.025 4,987 2.50 oO, 1,012 5,999 1999 62,467 3,206 1.046 5,443 0.00 1,750 1,012 8,205 56,804 5,567 1.067 5,937 2-50 2,170 1,012 9,119 71,437 5,951 1.088 6,474 3.10 0 1,012 7,486 76,3234 6,361 1-110 7,059 0.00 1,750 1,012 9,821 81,422 6,785 1.132 7,680 2-50 2,394 1,012 11,086 86,885 7.240 2.154 8,359 3.42 1,750 1,012 11,121 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 2.50 Qo 1,012 10,115 92.765 7,730 1-178 9,103 9.00 3,920 1,012 14,035 2765 7,730 1.178 9,103 5-60 1,750 1,012 11,865 2, 765 7,730 1.178 9,103 2-50 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,765 7,730 1.178 9-102 2.50 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,765 7.730 1-178 9,103 2.50 oO 1,012 10,115 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,303 0.00 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,765 7,730 1.278 9,393 2.50 0 1,012 10,115 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 0.00 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 2.50 vy 1,012 10,115 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 0.00 210 1,012 10,325 92.765 7.730 1.178 9,103 0.30 2,170 1,012 12,285 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 3.10 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,765 7.730 1.178 9,103 2.50 0 1,012 10,115 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 0.00 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,765 7.730 1.178 9,103 2.50 2.170 1,012 12,285 92, 765 7,730 1.178 9,103 3.10 0 1,012 10,115 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,193 0.90 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,785 7,730 1.178 9,107 2.50 2,394 1,012 12,509 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,193 3.42 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 2.59 0 1,012) 10,115 (12,627) (12,627) NPV(3.5):$165,819 NPV(4.5):$127-411 68T FUEL F n USE Yor (MU /yr) (1000 gal) 1,139 21,412 1,743 2,970 2,376 2,689 2,925 3,157 3,413 3.694 3,974 4,181 4,542 4,865 5,206 5,567 5,951 6,361 81,422 6,785 86,885 7,240 92,765 7,730 92,765 7,730 92,765 7,730 97,765 7,730 92,765 7,730 92,765 7.730 92,765 7,730 5 7,730 92,765 7,730 92,765 7,730 92,765 7,730 74730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 1998 yeae tat NNO z a HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO BASE CASE--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE FUEL cost ($1000) 997 NEM Qurvoun 2 DBrearoUSaSaIS YUU aN VEN 5! 9 ADD ITION/REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE cost (Mw) ($1000) 0.00 0 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 bo} 0.00 1,750 2.50 ° 0.00 210 9.30 2,170 3.10 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 2.170 3.10 ° 0.00 1,750 2.50 2,394 3.42 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.30 0 0.00 210 0.30 2.170 3.10 1,750 2.50 0 9.00 1,730 2.50 2.170 3.2 0 9.90 1,750 2.50 2,394 4.42 1,750 2-50 0 (12,627) LASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 2,012 1,012 TOTAL, SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 6,169 4,289 4,576 4,916 3.535 5,603 4,186 6,313 4,990 5,651 8,005 8,185 7,023 9,420 10,551 9,166 11,782 13,364 13,760 13,165 17,085 14,915 14,915 14,915 13,165 14,915 13,165 14,915 13,165 13,375 15,335 14,915 13,165 14,915 15,335 13,165 14,925 15,559 14,915 13,165 (12,627) NPV(3.5):$197,886 © NEA 4.5) 26162,611 O6T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH! SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GOOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PROVUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT cost CcosT cosT YEER (Mh/yr) ($1000) (Mvlh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1aas 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 © oO 997 1,012 2,009 1 ORG 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 1,012 11,687 1987 8,966 20,913 1,743 0.807 1,407 5-60 1,750 3,157 1,012 13,135 1988 9,300 24,844 2,070 0.775 1,605 2.50 1,750 3.355 1,012 13,667 2939 17,809 28,510 2,376 0.775 1,841 2-50 0 1,841 1,012 20,662 1990 ° 3,227 269 0.775 208 0.00 ° 208 1,275 1,483 2997 0 3,510 293 0.775 227 0.00 0 227 1,275 1,502 1992 0 3,788 316 0.775 245 0.00 ° 245 1,275 1,520 1993 0 4,096 341 0.775 265 0.00, O 265 1,275 1,540 1994 oO 4,433 369 0.775 286 0.00 \ 0 286 1,275 1,561 1995 0 4,769 397 0.775 308 0.00 210 518 1,275 1,793 L996 0 5.017 418 0.775 324 0.30 420 744 1,275 2,019 1997 ° 3,45! 454 0.775 352 0.60 1,750 2,102 1,275 3,377 1998 °O 5,838 486 0.775 377 2-50 0 377 1,275 1,652 1999 ° 6,247 521 0.775 403 0.00 1,750 2,153 1,275 3,428 2000 to} 6,680 557 0.775 431 2-50 420 851 1,275 2,126 2991 0 7,142 595 0.775 461 0.60 1,750 2,211 1,275 3,486 2002 68,701 0 7,633 636 0.775 493 2.50 1,750 2.243 1,275 3,518 2003 73,280 0 8,142 679 0.775 526 2.50 2,394 2,920 1,275 4,195 2094 82, 782 oO 4,103 342 0.775 265 3.42 1,750 2,015 1,275 3,290 2005 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 2.50 ° 645 1,275 1,920 2006 82,782 ° 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 3,920 4,565 1,275 5,840 2007 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 5.60 1,750 2,395 1,275 3,670 2008 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 2-50 1,750 2,395 1,275 3,670 2009 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 2.50 0 645 1,275 1,920 7910 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 Oo 645 1,275 1,920 2012 82,782 oO 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 0 645 1,275 1,920 87,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 0 645 1,275 1,920 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 Oo 645 1,275 1,920 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 oO 645 1-275 1,920 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 210 855 1,275 2-130 8?, 782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.30 420 1,065 1,275 2,340 82,782 0 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.60 1,750 2,395 1,275 3,670 82,782 ° 9,983 832 0.775 645 2.50 0 645 1,275 1,920 82,782 ° 9,983 832 0.775 645 0.00 1,750 2,395 1,275 3,670 82,782 oO 9,983 B32 0.775 645 2.50 420 1,065 1,275 2,340 82, 782 0 9,982 832 0.775 645 0.60 1,750 2,395 1,275 3,670 82,782 0 9,983 B32 0.775 645 2-50 1,750 2.395 1,275 3.670 82,782 oO 9,983 832 0.775 645 2-50 2,394 3,039 1,275 4,314 82, 782 0 9,983 B22 0.775 645 3.42 1,750 2,395 1,275 3,670 82,782 0 9,982 832 0.775 645 2-50 0 645 1,275 ° 1,920 (10,177) (10,177) (10,177) NPV(3.5): $93,104 NPV(4.5): $86,100 T61 7918 2921 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARSOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO (RMAL, COMPONENT 98 42,921 49,154 49,058 52,538 36,220 60,324 64,276 68,70) 23,280 82,782 82,782 82.782 82,782 87,782 82, 782 82,782 22,782 82, 782 82,782 2,782 87,782 32,082 82,702 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 8,966 9, 300 17,809 esos o0oo eC OSC OCOD OOOO OOOO OC OO OC OC OOO CCS ALTERNATIVE A(5)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE (Mun/yr) 13,663 16,942 20,913 24.844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 5,451 5,838 6,247 6,680 7,142 7,633 8,142 4,103 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,982 9,983 9,983 USE (1000 gal) 1,139 21,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 557 595 636 679 342 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 B32 832 832 832 332 832 B32 23> 832 832 B32 832 DIESEL COMPONENT PRICE (s/qal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1-154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.3178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 384 412 457 499 544 594 647 706 768 395 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 (MW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2-50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 2.50 0.00 2-50 0.60 2-50 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 ecoooo°o 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 3,920 1,750 1,750 ecooooo 210 420 1,750 o 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 (10,177) (10,177) COST ($1000) 997 5.107 3,216 3,491 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 594 832 2,207 499 2,294 1,014 2,397 2,456 3,162 2,145 980 4,900 2,730 2,730 980 980 980 980 980 980 1,190 1,400 2,730 980 2,730 1,400 2,730 2,730 3,374 2.730 980 TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,687 13,194 13,803 20,859 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 1,625 1,869 2,107 3,482 1,774 3,569 2,289 3,672 3,731 4,437 3,420 2,255 6,175 4,005 4,005 2,255 2,255 2,255 2,255 2,255 2,255 2,465 2,675 4,005 2,255 4,005 2,675 4,005 4,005 4,649 4,005 2,255 (10,177) NPV(3.5): $98,919 NPV(4.5): $89,156 261 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR PCWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT ne a a a a nnn «OPAL «TOTAL, CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM ROMUICTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cosT COST COST YEAR {mulh/yr) ($1000) (MWh/yr) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 ° 997 1,012 2,009 1986 ° 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.876 1,237 0.00 3,920 5,157 1,012 11,737 1987 0 8,966 20,913 1,743 0.876 1,527 5.60 1,750 3,277 1,012 13,255 1988 0 9,300 24,844 2,070 0.876 1,814 2.50 1,750 3,564 1,012 13,876 1989 0 17,809 28,510 2,376 _ 0.907 2,154 2.50 oO 2,154 1,012 20,975 1990 29,039 O 3,227 269 0.938 252 0.00 o 252 1,275 1,527 1991 31,593 0 3,510 293 0.971 284 0.00 0 284 1,275 1,559 199? 34,096 oO 3,788 316 1-005 317 0.00 ° 317 1,275 1,592 1993 36,860 0 4,096 341 1.040 355 0.00 0 355 1,275 1,630 1994 29,898 ° 4,433 369 1.077 398 0.00 O 398 1,275 1,673 1995 42,921 0 4,769 397 1.115 443 0.00 210 653 1-275 1,928 1996 45,154 0 5,017 418 1.154 482 0.30 420 902 1,275 2,177 199? 49,058 ° 5,451 454 1.194 542 0.60 1,750 2,292 1,275 3-567 1998 oO 5,838 486 1.236 601 2.50 Oo 601 1,275 1-876 1999 0 6,247 521 1.279 666 0.00 1,750 2,416 1,275 3,691 2500 9 6,680 557 1.324 737 2.50 420 1,157 1-275 2,432 0 7,142 595 1.370 815 0.60 1,750 2,565 1,275 3,840 oO 7,633 636 1.418 902 2.50 1,750 2,652 1,275 3,927 0 8,142 679 1.468 996 2.50 2,394 3,390 1,275 4,665 oO 4,103 342 1.519 519 3.42 1,750 2.269 1,275 3,544 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 2.50 0 1,308 1,275 2.583 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.00 3,920 5,228 1,275 6,503 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 5.60 1,750 3,058 1,275 4,333 0 9,983 B22 1.572 1,308 2.50 1,750 3,058 1,275 4,333 0 9,982 832 1.572 1,308 2.50 0 1,308 1,275 2,583 oO 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.00 o 1,308 1,275 2,583 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.00 0 1,308 1,275 2,583 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.00 Oo 1,308 1,275 2,583 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.00 0 1,308 1,275 2,583 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.00 Oo 1,308 1.275 2,583- 0 9,983 832 1-572 1,308 0.00 210 1,518 1,275 2,793 oO 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.30 420 1,728 1,275 3,003 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.60 1,750 3,058 1,275 4,333 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 2.50 oO 1,308 1,275 2,583 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.00 1,750 3,058 1,275 4,333 ° 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 2.50 420 1,728 1,275 3,003 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 0.60 1,750 3,058 1,275 4,333 ° 9,983 B32 1.572 1,308 2.50 1,750 3,058 1,275 4,333 0 9,983 832 1.572 1,308 2.50 2,394 3,702 1,275 4,977 0 9,98% 832 1.572 1,308 3.42 1,750 3,058 1,275 4,333 0 9,983 832 1-572 1,308 2.50 0 1,308 1,275 2,583 (10,177) (10,177) (10.177) NPV(3.5):$102,464 NPV(4.5): $91,975 €6T UNALASKA /DUTCH HARBOR POWCDR SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION ust cost SCHEDULE cosT COST Cost COST Yren ($1000) (Muh/yr ) (1000 gal) ($/gal) ($1000) (mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 198s ° 0 13,662 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 LORE ? 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 1,012 11,687 2987 ¢ 11,042 20,913 1,743 0.807 1,407 5-60 1,750 3,157 1,012 15,21) 198R 9 18,018 24,844 2.070 0.775 1,605 2.50 1,750 3,355 1,012 22,385 199a 0 23,264 28,510 2,376 0.775 1,841 2-50 0 1,841 1,012 26,117 1999 29,039 9 3,22? ?69 0.775 208 0.00 0 208 1,275 1,483 1997 31,593 0 3,510 293 0.775 227 0.00 0 227 1,275 1,502 1992 34,096 ° 3,788 316 0.775 245 0.00 o 245 1,275 1,520 199? 36,860 oO 4,096 341 0.775 265 0.00 0 265 1,275 1,540 1994 39,898 0 4,433 369 0.775 286 0.00 0 286 1,275 1,561 1995 42,921) 0 4,769 397 0.775 308 0.00 210 518 1,275 1-793 1996 45,154 ° 5,017 418 0.775 324 0.30 420 744 1,275 2,019 1997 49,058 0 5,451 454 0.775 352 0.60 1,750 2,102 1,275 3,377 2998 52,538 0 5,838 486 0.775 377 2.50 0 377 1,275 1,652 0 6,247 $21 0.775 403 0.00 1,750 2.153 1,275 3,428 0 6,680 357 0.775 431 2.50 2.170 2,601 1,275 3,876 0 7/142 »595 0.775 461 3-10 0 461 1,275 1,736 ° 7,633 636 0.775 493 0.00 1,750 2,243 1,275 3,518 0 2,582 215 0.775 167 2-50 2,394 2,561 1,275 3,836 ° 8,045 670 0.775 520 3.42 1,750 2-270 1,275 3,545 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 0 899 1,275 2,174 oO 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 3,920 4,819 1,275 6,094 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 5-60 1,750 2,649 1,275 3,924 oO 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2-50 1,750 2,649 1,275 3,924 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 0 899 1,275 2,174 9 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 0 899 1-275 2,174 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 0 899 1,275 2,174 78. 840 9 13,925 1,160 0.775 B99 9.00 9 899 1,275 2.174 7B, 840 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 0 899 1,275 2+174 9 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 9 899 1,275 2-174 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 210 1,109 1,275 2,384 O 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.30 420 1,319 1,275 2,594 9 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.60 1,750 2,649 1,275 3,924 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 9 899 1,275 2,174 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 1,750 2,649 1,275 3,924 9 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2-50 2,170 3,069 1,275 4,344 9 313,925 1,160 0.775 899 3.10 0 899 1,275 2/174 9 23,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 1.750 2,649 1,275 3,924 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 2,394 3,293 1,275 4,568 9 13,925 1,169 0.775 899 3.42 1,750 2,649 1-275 3,924 ° 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 0 899 1,275 2/174 (10,089) (10,089) (10,089) NPV(3.5):$111,061 NPV(4.5):$101,038 { ie = v6T 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 3999 GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT JCTION infyr) 0 0 0 0 9° 29,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,92) 45,154 49,058 32,538 56,220 60,124 64,276 68,702 78,840 78, BAD 78,840 "8,840 78,840 73,840 73,840 78,840 78,240 78,840 73,840 18,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 78,840 18,840 78.840 8, B40 78,840 78,840 RB, 840 UN* LASKA/NU RMAL CONSTRUCTION ($1000) 11,042 18,018 23,264 ecscocoeoeo oo OC OCOD OOOO OO OC OOO COCO CC COC OO 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 34227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5.017 5,451 5,838 6,247 6,680 7,142 7,633 2,582 8,045 13,925 23,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 557 595 636 215 670 1,160 1.160 1,160 2,160 1,160 1,160 1-160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 DIESEL COMPONENT FULL FUEL PRICE (s/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1-110 1-132 1.154 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 CH HARBOR PCMER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 23(3)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE FUEL, ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 384 412 457 499 544 594 647 706 244 774 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 1,366 ouuacsed VOUALOOZOO SSS5S5SS88 ScYrNONDOOOOOCOCONNUCO SSSoSooOSCONGDGOSCSCOCOSS SSSSsysysyssssssuyseguvanor ooosd ° ° NWNOWNSONDODTDDCDDOCOONNYVONYUNOUN ONOSOOS cost COST ($1000) ($1000) 0 997 3,920 5,107 1,750 3,216 1,750 3,491 ° 2,038 °O 235 0 261 oO 287 0 317 o 350 210 594 420 832 1,750 2,207 ° 499 1,750 2,294 2.170 2,764 0 647 1,750 2,456 2,394 2,638 1,750 2,524 0 1,366 3,920 5,286 1,750 3,116 1,750 3,116 ° 1,366 °O 1,366 0 1,366 0 1,366 0 1,366 0 1,366 210 1,576 420 1,786 1,750 3,116 0 1,366 1,750 3,116 2,170 3,536 0 1,366 1,750 3,116 2,394 3,760 1,750 3,116 0 1,366 (10,089) (10,089) = TOTAL = TOTAL OsM SYSTEM cost cost ($1000) ($1000) 1,012. 2,009 1,012 11,687 1,012 15,270 1,012 22,521 1/012 26,314 1-275 1,510 1.275 1,536 1,275 1,562 1,275 1,592 1,275 1,625 1,275 1,869 1,275 2,107 1,275 3,482 1,275 1.774 1,275 3,569 1,275 4,039 1,275 1,922 1,275 3,732 1,275 3,913 11275 -3,799 1,275 2,641 1,275 6,561 1,275 4,39) 1,275 4,391 1,275 2,641 1,275 2,641 1,275 2,641 1,275 2,643 1,275 2,641 1,275 2,641 1,275 2,852 1,275 3,061 1,275 4,391 1,275 2,641 1,275 4,391 1,275 4,811 1,275 2,641 1,275 4,391 1/275 5,035 1,275 4,391 1,275 2,641 (10,089) NPV(3.5):2$115,829 NPV(4.5):$104,810 S6T UNA LASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS CONSTRUCTION costs ($1000) 0 5,568 11,042 18,018 23,264 0 eeecce0nc oc Oo FOC COD OOOO Oe OOO OOO OOO OOOO OO DIESEL COMPONENT t 1 GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATTVE B(3)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE DIESEL PRODUCTION (muih/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3-227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,01? 5,452 3.838 6,247 6,680 7,142 7,633 2,582 8,045 13,925 13,925 13,925 33,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,925 13,975 13,925 13,995 13,975 13,975 13,925> 13,925 13,925 12,925 53,9295 12,923 USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2.070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 357 $95 636 215 870 1,160 2,169 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,269 1,160 1,160 2,160 1,160 P) ($/gal) 0 0 0 oO 0 oO 0 L 1 1 1 L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L 1 1 1 1 1 FUEL RICE -876 +876 +876 -876 +907 +938 971 005 +040 +077 +115 2154 -194 +236 +279 -324 +370 -418 468 -519 -372 572 572 +572 +572 1.572 L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L wee +572 +572 +572 +572 +572 -572 -572 -372 572 -572 +572 +572 +572 +372 +572 ($1000) 997 1,237 1,527 1,814 2,154 252 284 317 355 398 443 482 542 601 666 737 815 902 316 1,018 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 (mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 3-10 0.00 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2-50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 2-50 0.00 2-50 3.10 0.00 2.50 3.42 2.50 COST cOsT ($1000) ($1000) 0 997 3,920 5,157 1,750 3,277 1,750 3,564 °O 2,154 oO 252 0 284 ° 317 0 355 0 398 210 653 420 902 1,750 2,292 0 601 1,750 2,416 2,170 2,907 0 815 1,750 2,652 2,394 2,710 1,750 2.768 0 1,824 3,920 5.744 1,750 3,574 1,750 3,574 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 210 2,034 420 2,244 1,750 3,574 0 1,824 1,750 3,574 2.170 3,994 ° 1,824 1,750 3,574 2,394 4,218 1,750 3,574 0 1,824 (10,089) (10,089) ecoooo°o TOTAL TOTAL O&M SYSTEM cosT cosT ($1000) ($1000) 1,012 2,009 1,012 11,737 1,012 15,331 1,012 22,594 1,012 26,430 1,275 1,527 1,275 1,559 1,275 1,592 1,275 1,630 1,275 1,673 1,275 1,928 1,275 2,177 1,275 3,567 1,275 1,876 1,275 3,691 1,275 4,182 1,275 2,090 1,275 3,927 1,275 3,985 1,275 4,043 1,275 3,099 1,275 7,019 1,275 4,849 1,275 4,849 1,275 3,099 1,275 3,099 1,275 3,099 1,275 3,099 1,275 3,099 1,275 3,099 1,275 3,309 1,275 3,519 1,275 4,849 1,275 3,099 1,275 4,849 1,275 5,269 1,275 3,099 1,275 4,849 1,275 5,493 1,275 4,849 1,275 3,099 (10,089) NPV(3.5)2$120, 310 NPV(4.5):$108, 331 96T UNALASKA/DUTC!! HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTFRNATIVE C(3)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE HYDROPOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT —-- a nn nr TOTAL TOTAL DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT ‘TOTAL O&M SYSTEM STS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcOsT cosT COST COST ($1000) (mvin/yr ) (1000 gat) ($/gal) ($1000) (Mw) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) ($1000) 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 0 26,943 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 1,012 6,119 ° 20,913 1,743 0.807 1,407 5.60 1,750 3,157 1,012 4,169 6,387 24,844 2,070 0.775 1,605 2.50 1,750 3,355 1,012 10,754 0 23,222 1,935 0.775 1,500 2.50 0 1,500 1,062 2,562 0 26,977 2,248 0.775 1,742 0.00 1,750 3,492 1,062 4,554 0 29,816 2,485 0.775 1,926 2.50 oO 1,926 1,062 2,988 oO 32,596 2.716 0.775 2,105 0.00 1,750 3,855 1,062 4,917 0 35,668 2,972 0.775 2,304 2.50 0 2,304 1,062 3,366 ° 39,043 3,254 0.775 2,522 0.00 1,750 4,272 1,062 5,334 0 42,402 3,533 0.775 2,739 2-50 210 2,949 1,062 4,011 0 44,883 3,740 0.775 2.899 0.30 2,170 5,069 1,062 6,131 0 49,220 4,102 0.775 3,179 3.10 0 3,179 1,062 4,24) ° 53,088 4.424 0.775 34429 0.00 1,750 5,179 1,062 6-241 0 57,179 4,765 0.775 3,693 2.50 1,750 5,443 1,062 6,505 0 61,516 3,126 0.775 3,973 2.50 420 4,393 1,062 5,455 0 66,129 5,511 0.775 4,271 0.60 1,750 6,021 1,062 7,083 0 71,046 3,92) 0.775 4,589 2.50 1,750 6,339 1,062 7,401 0 76,134 6,344 0.775 4,917 2.50 2,394 7 1,062 8,373 0 81,597 6,800 0.775 5,270 3.42 1,750 7,020 1,062 8,082 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 0 5,650 1,062 6,712 0 87,477 74290 0.775 5,650 0.00 3,920 9,570 1,062 10,632 0 87,47? 7,290 0.775 5,650 5.60 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 oO 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 0 5,650 1,062 6,712 ° 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 0 87,477 “7,299 0.775 5,650 2-50 0 5,650 1,062 6,712 oO 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 0 87,467? 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 0 5,650 1,062 6,712 ° 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8.462 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 210 5,860 1,062 6,922 9 87,47? 7,290 9.775 5,650 0.30 2.170 7,820 1,062 8,882 ° 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 3.10 0 5,650 1,062 6,712 9 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2-50 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 0 87,477 ?, 290 0.775 5,650 2-50 420 6.070 1,062 7.132 0 87,477 7,299 0.775 5,650 0.60 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 °O 87.477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 1.750 7,400 1,062 8,462 Cc 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 2,394 8,044 1,062 9,106 0 87.477 7,290 0.775 5,650 3.42 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 © 2.50 0 5,650 1,062 * 6,712 (13,064) (13,064) (13,064) NPV(3.5):$131,647 NPV(4.5):$111,048 L6T UNALASKA/DUTCH HYD? ODOYER COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) Nooo 6,38 i 1288 7900 5,288 2001 5, 288 SS7O9DOD OCOD OOOO OC OOO OOO OD OOOO OOO COC OCS ALTERNA) JEL PRODUCTION USS (Mulh/yr) (1000 gat) 13,663 1,139 16,942 1,412 20,913 1,743 24,844 2.070 23,22? 1,935 26,977 2,248 29,816 2,485 32,596 2,716 35,668 2,972 39,042 3,254 42,402 3,533 44,883 3,740 49,220 4,102 53,088 4.424 57,179 4,765 61,516 5,126 66,129 3,511 71,046 3,921 76,134 6,344 81.597 6,800 87,477 7,290 87.477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87.477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87.477 14290 87,477 7,299 87.477 7,290 87,477 7,290 £7,477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87,477 7,290 87,477 7,299 87.477 7,290 87,477 74290 87,477 7.290 87,477 7,290 = DTESEL COMPONENT PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1-154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL, CcOsT ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 1,660 1,967 2,217 2,473 2,760 3,081 3,413 3,685 4,122 4,535 4,982 5,467 5,995 6,570 7,181 7,850 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 RBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ¥ GROWTH SCENARIO VE C(3)---MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL SCHEDULE (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2-50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2-50 2.50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2-50 0.00 2.50 0-00 2-50 0-00 2-50 0-30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2-50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 ° 1,750 ° 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 0 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 oO 3,920 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 0 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 TOTAL O&M COsT cost ($1000) ($1000) 997 1,012 5,107 1,012 3,216 1,012 3,491 1,012 1,660 1,062 3,717 1,062 2,217 1,062 4,223 1,062 2,760 1,062 4,831 1,062 3,623 1,062 5,855 1,062 4,122 1,062 6,285 1,062 6,732 1,062 5,887 1,062 7,745 1,062 8,320 1,062 9,575 1,062 9,600 1,062 8,584 1,062 12,504 1,062 10,334 1,062 10,334 1,062 8,584 1,062 10,334 1,062 8,584 1,062 10,334 1,062 8,584 1,062 10,334 1,062 8,794 1,062 10,754 1,062 8,584 1,062 10,334 1,062 10,334 1,062 9,004 1,062 10,334 1,062 10,334 1,062 10,978 1,062 10,334 1,062 8,584 1,062 (13,064) (13,064) TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 6,119 4,228 10,890 2.722 4.779 3,279 5,285 3,822 5,893 4,685 6,917 5,184 7,347 7,794 6,949 8,807 9,382 10,637 10,662 9,646 13,566 11,396 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,856 11,816 9,646 11,396 11,396 10,066 11,396 11,396 12,040 11,396 9,646 (13,064) NPV(3.5)2$163,452 NPV(4.5)2$136,142 861 Year 2985, L986 1987 1988 1989 1999 1992 1992 1993 1994 ra05 1996 399 1998 }99q 20 2002 2002 3 mF 5 5 NNN wou un NNE o o Ne o o view ut 3 2 wut uh nuh ut ot will ur ot ut viv urn ut wou UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION Costs ($1000) ooo 6,38 eceoopoo oOo ODO OOOO OOD OOOO OOOO OO OCC OOO COCO ALTERNATIVE C(3)----HTGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL PROPUCTION (Mulh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 23,222 26,977 29,816 32,596 35,668 39,043 42,402 44,883 49,220 53,088 37,179 61,516 66,129 71,046 76,134 81,597 87,477 87,477 87,477 87.477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,47? (1000 ga?) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2.070 1,935 2,248 2,485 2,716 2,972 3,254 3,533 3,740 4,102 4,424 4,765 5,126 5,511 5,92) 6,344 6,800 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 74290 »,290 7,290 7,290 74290 7,290 7,299 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 DIESEL. COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.876 0.876 0.876 0.907 0.938 0.971 1.005 1.040 1.077 1.115 1.154 1.194 1.236 1.279 1.324 1.370 1.418 1.468 1.519 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1-572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1-572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 Cost ($1000) 997 1,237 1,527 1,814 1,755 2,110 2,413 2,731 3,092 3,504 3,938 4,314 4,897 5,467 6,094 6,786 7,550 8,395 9,311 10,329 11,461 11,461 11,46) 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 11,461 SCHEDULE (mv) SCNYNNONNOWONONONONNUOO Quawuavvorvwvouvonouuadcsd SONSOSCSCSCSCSCOCSSOSSOSOSSSOOSS ONNW ouuan oooco 2-50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2-50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST ($1000) °o 3,920 1,750 1,750 °O 1,750 ° 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 0 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 210 2.170 0 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 (13,064) (13,064) ($1000) 997 5.157 3,277 3,564 1,755 3,860 2,413 4,481 3,092 5,254 4.148 6,484 4,897 7,217 7,844 7,206 9,300 10,145 11,705 12,079 11,461 15,381 13,211 13,211 11,461 13,211 11,461 13,211 11,461 13,211 11,671 13,631 11,461 13,211 13,211 11,881 13,211 13,211 13,855 13,211 11,461 TOTAL TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COST cosT ($1000) ($1000) 1,012 2,009 1,012 6,169 1,012 4,289 1,012 10,963 1,062 2,817 1,062 4,922 1,062 3,475 1,062 5,543 1,062 4,154 1,062 6,316 1,062 5,210 1,062 7,546 1,062 5,959 1,062 8,279 1,062 8,906 1,062 8,268 1,062 10,362 1,062 11,207 1,062 12,767 1,062 13,141 1,062 12,523 1,062 16,443 1,062 14,273 1,062 14,273 1,062 12,523 1,062 14,273 1,062 12,523 1,062 14,272 1,062 12,523 1,062 14,273 1,062 12,733 1,062 14,693 1,062 12,523 1,062 14,273 1,062 14,273 1,062 12,943 1,062 14,273 1,062 14,273 1,062 14,917 1,062 14,273 1,062 12,523 (13,064) NPV(3.5)2$193,427 NPV(4.5):$159,670 661