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Home My WebLink AboutEconomic & Demographic Projections for the Alaska Railbelt-1988-2010 report 1988ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 Prepared by Scott Goldsmith Teresa Hull Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 3211 Providence Drive Anchorage, Alaska 99508 Prepared for Alaska Power Authority P.O. Box 190689 Anchorage, Alaska 99519-0689 August 10, 1988 RAL 055 PREFACE This report on Railbelt economic and population growth was produced as one part of a comprehensive study of Railbelt electrical energy requirements and delivery systems for the Alaska Power Authority. The purpose of this analysis is to provide economic and demographic projections for estimating electricity consumption in the Railbelt through 2010. ad, ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 Table of Contents I. SUMMARY II. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF RAILBELT ECONOMY AND POPULATION . A. B Ge General Historical Patterns of Growth . . The Petrodollar Cycle of Boom and Contraction of the 1980s ... The Economy and Population of the Railbelt | III. METHODS AND ASSUMPTIONS A. B. Cc. Uncertainty . General Approach The Sensitivity of the Projections | to the Probabilities Assigned to the Critical Assumptions IV. PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSEHOLDS wp mmooa Summary . Tope es te We Aw we ow ws "Middle" Case--50 Percent Chance of Faster Growth and 50 Percent Chance of Slower Growth . "High" Case--One Chance in Six of Faster Growth . "Highest" Case--Zero Chance of Faster Growth "Low" Case--One Chance in Six of Slower Growth "Lowest" Case--Zero Chance of Slower Growth . Vv. COMPARISON OF CURRENT PROJECTIONS TO PRIOR ANALYSES APPENDIX A. APPENDIX B. APPENDIX C. APPENDIX D. APPENDIX E. SELECTED STATEWIDE SUMMARY OUTPUT FROM THE MIDDLE CASE PROJECTIONS DETAILED RAILBELT PROJECTIONS CRITICAL ASSUMPTION DESCRIPTION CORE ASSUMPTIONS WRITTEN COMMENTS ON DRAFT REPORT Lit III-1 III-1 III-6 III-12 Iv-1 Iv-1 Iv-1 Iv-11 Iv-12 Iv-13 Iv-13 . V-1 ELL. AG ELL. EET. ETI.. Tit. EEL. OLS ELL. iV. IV. LV. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 List of Figures Railbelt Households: Year 2010 . Railbelt Employment: Year 2010 . Secondary Jobs for each Basic Job Alaska Residents for each Job Projection Tree Railbelt Households: Year 2010 Cumulative Probability Distribution Railbelt Households: 2010 Frequency Distribution . Railbelt Employment: Year 2010 Cumulative Probability Distribution Railbelt Employment: 2010 Frequency Distribution . The Employment Household Relationship Railbelt Employment: Year 2010 Cumulative Probability Distribution Wage & Salary Employment, Total Railbelt . Population, Total Railbelt . Number of Households, Total Railbelt . Petroleum Revenues, Projection Comparison Alaska Employment, Projection Comparison . Alaska Population, Projection Comparison . 1-2 Tie, EIT=5 TiL<5 III-8 III-10 III-10 @ (GEDA: er Tal III-14 III-14 Iv-2 Iv-3 Iv-4 vV-4 v-4 List of Figures (continued) APPENDIX C: CRITICAL ASSUMPTION DESCRIPTION Figure C.1. Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Gs c. is Si Alaska Oil Production . Alaska Petroleum Revenues . Direct Petroleum Industry Employment . Alaska Federal Employment . . Growth in Alaska Tourist Visitors . . Alaska Real Average Annual Wage . . Permanent Fund: Rate of Return . Alaska Labor Force Participation Rate . vi c-5 C-6 C-7 c-9 c-9 c-12 c-12 c-16 Risks Faden he LEE E: IVi3. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 L f£ Tables Regional Economic Data . Alaska Basic Industry: Indicators of Activity Representative Projection Cases Historical and Projected Growth Rates for Alaska and the Railbelt Historical and Projected Growth Rates for Regions within the Railbelt Middle Case Projections: Critical Assumptions . Comparison of "Low," "Middle," and "High" Case: Critical Assumptions APPENDIX A: THE MIDDLE CASE PROJECTIONS TABLE A.1. MIDDLE CASE A Summary . . Employment by Sector. Private Employment Government Employment . TABLE A.2. MIDDLE CASE B Summary . . Employment by Sector Private Employment Government Employment . TABLE A.3. MIDDLE CASE C Summary . . Employment by Sector Private Employment Government Employment . vii II-8 III-2 EET LZ IvV-5 IV-6 Iv-9 IV-11 >>> D> FwWNHR Pe ie ONUDU IT rPRRO NFO List of Tables (continued) APPENDIX B: DETAILED RAILBELT PROJECTIONS TABLE B.1. MIDDLE CASE A Population B-1 Households . . B-2 Total Employment ala) |e B-3 Real Per Capita Personal Income . B-4 TABLE B.2. MIDDLE CASE B Population B-5 Households . . B-6 Total Employment isis B-7 Real Per Capita Personal Income . B-8 TABLE B.3. MIDDLE CASE C Population Households . . Total Employment &| la) @ Real Per Capita Personal | Income . wDmwmwww 1 rPRPROo NRO TABLE B.4. HIGH CASE Or a a a a a es B-13 MM ic aaa lag ld a a LL a | Lk a La B-14 Total Employment... eh fel] Foal ell kel resid ov lie ihe fo) od el) vere shinee eile le B-15 Real Per Capita Personal TORO bs ee ee eee ew B-16 TABLE B.5. LOW CASE Population sailed ses ees ten esos Soe ea edt hse ara sing see ori ote ser ened B-17 Households ieee ele ei cen ire ieee i eleiierlcieenen eis B-18 Total Employment... casa wees Bee ee ee ee B-19 Real Per Capita Personal. TNCOMmMe tse) ie) | (le) ae) lee Pei de] B-20 TABLE B.6. HIGHEST CASE ee ee ee ee B-21 IHOUsGh ONS reread are alle cite ti Tato ator ai ater oar tls nies af fabt Fone at B-22 Total Employment... cies ee el le B-23 Real Per Capita Personal | Encome | (|) /4 | (6) & || \le) (4 lol lel| a) & B-24 TABLE B.7. LOWEST CASE UR || fa || Sue || im |u| Jae foe) | Be} | me | ae om | i | ft) rl | et Va] fk) Jil oe} || B-25 Pe te ee ee B-26 Total Employment... | | lim | fm fom | fd | me) fom | | | Pe) fot ee) | | B-27 Real Per Capita Personal TTCOMe) eae ieeiteneii <a yar ier es B-28 APPENDIX C: CRITICAL ASSUMPTION DESCRIPTION TABLE C.1. PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL ............ C-17 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 I. SUMMARY Railbelt employment growth between 1987 and 2010 is projected to lie within a range from .9 to 1.9 percent annually, with a 66 percent likelihood, while Railbelt household growth is projected to lie within a range from 1.1 and 2.0 percent annually with the same likelihood. There is one chance in six that employment and household growth will fall below this range and one chance in six that growth will exceed this range. There is equal probability (50 percent) that in 2010 total Railbelt employment will be less than or greater than 244 thousand (1.5 percent annual growth rate). There is equal probability (50 percent) that in 2010 the number of households will be less than or greater than 197 thousand (1.6 percent annual growth rate). These distributions are shown in Figures I.1 and 1.2. Growth of the Railbelt economy, as measured by employment and population, is projected to compare favorably with the national economy but will fall behind the growth rates experienced in prior decades in the Railbelt for two reasons. The growth in basic sector activities, dominated by petroleum, is expected to slow compared with the past, and the process of secondary sector maturation will decelerate. Consequently, the two factors which have been the primary contributors to growth in the past will have less influence in the future. Projecting growth of the economy of the Railbelt involves a high degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty arises most obviously from the fact that Alaska is a natural resource-based economy and thus subject to the vicissitudes of world primary commodity markets. In addition, the immaturity of the economy and the characteristics of the population make it difficult to determine the total level of employment and population which any given amount of natural resource production will support. In this study, the uncertainty is addressed by explicitly considering those factors and relationships which are most important to the determination of economic and population growth and which are also the most difficult to project. The seven "critical assumptions" are as follows: i. world oil price ii. Alaska oil production iii. federal employment in Alaska (including military) iv. tourist visitors to Alaska v. mational real wage rates vi. labor force participation rate in Alaska vii. real rate of return on the Permanent Fund I-1 PROBABILITY OF FEWER THAN THIS AMOUNT PROBABILITY OF FEWER THAN THIS AMOUNT = GR GR RG B GS RR ARR B N 0% g & Figure I.1 RAILBELT HOUSEHOLDS: YEAR 2010 CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 HOUSEHOLDS (000) Figure I.2 RAILBELT EMPLOYMENT: YEAR 2010 CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ne i + T a ps 1 —_-— a AREY sh SEEN ae an Fo 0 i a | L ELEC Z| po — Seok +—t 4 _| — bse atc 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 EMPLOYMENT (000) 1-2 By assigning probabilities to different values for these critical assumptions and generating a large number of projections, we have produced cumulative probability distributions for Railbelt employment and households. Using these distributions, we can determine the likelihood that the value for either of these variables will be greater than or less than any given amount. After presenting a historical review of Alaska and Railbelt economic growth in Chapter 2, a description of the methodology of the study is presented in Chapter 3. In Chapter 4, short descriptions of seven projection cases are given. Three of the projection cases have very different critical assumptions but produce annual growth rates for Railbelt employment and households which are quite similar and which have a 50 percent chance of being exceeded. These three are identified as "Middle Cases" and represent the middle of the probability distribution of possible outcomes. A “High Case" represents the upper portion of the distribution of outcomes. It has one chance in six of being exceeded. A "Low Case" represents the lower portion of the distribution of outcomes. It has five chances in six of being exceeded. Finally, the two extreme end points of the distribution of cases are presented. These are the "Highest Case" and the "Lowest Case." The final chapter contains a comparison of the "Middle Cases" with previous projections done since 1980. Selected tabular output and model descriptions are presented in the appendixes. Additional detail is available form the authors upon request. I-3 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 II. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF RAILBELT ECONOMY AND POPULATION A. General Historical Patterns of Growth At the time of statehood in 1959, the Alaska economy was totally dominated by the federal government, which accounted for half of the approximately 90 thousand jobs in the marketplace. Furthermore, fully two-thirds of federal employment was military. The transient nature of this employment, coupled with the seasonal nature of the other basic sector industries in the state--fishing, timber, mining--resulted in an economy with little activity not directly related to the military, the administration of federal programs, and the extraction and primary processing of natural resources. In 1961, of total employment of 94 thousand, 59 thousand jobs were accounted for in these basic sector activities, while total employment in support activities, infrastructure, and state and local government accounted for only 35 thousand. (Support is defined as trade, services, manufacturing for the local market, and finance while infrastructure is transportation, communications, public utilities, and construction. ) In the succeeding years, the economic structure of Alaska has been dramatically transformed. The real value of goods and services produced has grown at an average 7.2 percent rate annually; employ- ment has_ grown by over 150 thousand, increasing at an average annual rate of 5.1 percent for the period 1961 through 1987, and real disposable personal income has increased by an average of 7 percent annually. The sources of this growth are not apparent from examination of the composition of employment because the level of basic employment, commonly viewed as the driving force behind regional economic growth, has changed very little since the early 1960s. We must look elsewhere to explain the economic growth and change in the state and to understand future growth potential. Part of the growth is explained by evolution in the industries comprising the basic sector, in particular the shift in dominance from the military to the petroleum industry. This has had at least four major effects. First, it has provided a significant tax base for the state. Second, it has reduced the transient nature of the basic sector workforce. Third, it has replaced a low-wage industry in the 1960s with a high-wage industry in the present. Fourth, the backward linkages into the regional economy from petroleum are more significant than those from the military. II-1 However, the most significant feature of development of the Alaska economy since statehood has been the concentration of growth in the secondary sector of the economy--the support, infrastructure, and state-local government categories. In 1985, support and state- local government employment were over six times their level at statehood while infrastructure employment had grown to four times its size in 1959. The contributing factors to this rapid growth have been several, with a series of important events providing impetus and momentum to the growth. At the time of statehood, the state of Alaska received a sizable transitional grant from the federal government to provide financial support in the absence of any significant tax base. During the 1960s, the development of the oil and gas resources in the Cook Inlet provided the beginning of a tax base as well as a stimulus to infrastructure development. The 1964 earthquake in Anchorage and the 1967 flood in Fairbanks were events which resulted in significant construction activity. The discovery of oil on Alaska’s North Slope in 1968 ushered in a new era of development due to the large scale of activities necessary to exploit the resource as well as the further expansion of the tax base which it provided. The decade of the seventies was dominated by construction of the trans-Alaska (Alyeska) pipeline which was originally scheduled for construction in 1971 but was delayed until the mid-seventies while the Native Claims Settlement Act was negotiated. Economic activity was stimulated in anticipation of pipeline construction, but a slowdown followed the delay. Several years of very rapid economic growth coincided with pipeline construction. Construction employment totaled 30 thousand in the peak year of 1976, compared to a pre- pipeline level of 8 thousand. When construction employment returned to a level of 10 thousand in 1979, an inevitable decline in the economy resulted, but it was significantly offset by expansion of state and local government made possible by revenues collected on the petroleum produced on the North Slope and transported through the newly completed pipeline. At the same time, expansion of North Slope operations was proceeding as well as significant growth in the fishing and tourism industries. In addition, the Alaska Native corporations, formed as a result of the Native Claims Settlement Act and capitalized with land and cash transfers, were beginning to play a significant role in the economy, using their capital both to develop and market the natural resources on their lands and to provide income and services directly to their shareholders. Several important structural changes in the economy have contributed to the rapid growth in support and infrastructure employment stimulated by the growth in basic activity and the developments just discussed. First, the increase in the petroleum tax base and the expansion of the scope of the public sector which followed have been reflected not only directly in government employment but also in large increases in those sectors which are linked directly to government, such as construction and services. II-2 Second, the support and infrastructure sectors have been stimulated by an increase in the stability of business activity and population. This stability is indicated by a decline in the seasonal variation in employment and by the growth of nonwage sources of income as a proportion of total personal income. At the time of statehood, seasonal natural resource extraction and construction provided a _ large portion of the jobs, and while seasonality is still a factor in these industries, they make up a much smaller portion of total employment today. Also at the time of statehood, 90 percent of personal income came from wages and salaries and about 10 percent from nonwage sources, only one-half to one-third the national average. Nonwage income has now more than doubled as a proportion, providing a larger component of purchasing power insulated from seasonal and cyclical variations in wage and salary employment. Also, as _ the economy has expanded, the cost of business differential (as measured by the ratio of the Anchorage Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the national average) has trended downward from 45 percent just after statehood to about 21 percent currently. Although still a high-cost region, the relative attractiveness of Alaska has been enhanced. Finally, expansion of the size of the market, which has partly been a consequence of a significant increase in real per capita disposable personal income, has contributed to support and infrastructure expansion. At the time of statehood, the Alaska real per capita disposable personal income stood at less than 80 percent of the national average. It is now at parity with the national average due to a combination of strong wage rate growth in the rapidly expanding industries in the state, a significant increase in the labor force participation rate, and rapid general wage growth during years of accelerated economic expansion. As the structure of the economy has changed since statehood, so also has that of the Alaska population both in response to and as a driving force behind economic growth. Total population has more than doubled since 1960, increasing from 226 thousand in 1960 to 540 thou- sand in 1985. As the population has increased, its composition has changed, as reflected in faster growth in the number of households than population. At the same time, a much larger proportion of the population has entered the market economy, partially in response to national trends but also as a result of the increased availability of employment opportunities and the in-migration of individuals and households with high labor force participation rates. Thus, at the time of statehood, 30 percent of the civilian population was employed; the figure today is closer to 50 percent. This restructuring is also reflected in growth of the school-age population at a rate much below that of total population. II-3 A majority of the population growth historically, particularly in the more urban parts of the state, has been the result of in- migration of young job seekers who have kept the average age of the population low and contributed both to the high labor force participation rate and small average household size. However, the decline in the average size of the household has _ been a rural phenomenon as well. B. The Petrodollar Cycle of Boom and Contraction of the 1980s Starting in 1980, Alaska experienced five years of unprecedented economic and population growth. Stimulated by the oil price rise of 1979, the value of oil production from Alaska fields expanded from $5.3 billion in 1979 to a peak of $14 billion in 1981. Direct employment in the petroleum industry increased by 60 percent, and capital expenditure budgets for exploration and development of new fields expanded several-fold. Continuing development of Prudhoe Bay and the opening of new fields increased oil production from 1.4 million barrels per day in 1979 to 1.82 million barrels per day in 1985. State revenues derived from petroleum increased fourfold between 1979 and 1982 from $825 million to $3.58 billion. Since 1982 state general fund petroleum revenues have fallen, along with the value of oil production, to $1.27 billion in FY1987. Fueled by oil revenues, state government spending tripled in the early 1980s, and capital and operating expenditures continued to grow through 1985. The magnitude of this spending, which averaged about $4 billion annually during the peak years of 1981 through 1983, was the impetus, directly and indirectly, for most of the growth of employment, income, and population in the state between 1980 and 1985. Over this short period, wage employment increased 34 percent from 170 to 228 thousand, personal income grew 70 percent from $5.586 billion to $9.476 billion, and population increased nearly 30 percent from 420 to 540 thousand, primarily the result of in-migration. The current recession, which began at the start of the fourth quarter of 1985, was precipitated by (1) the contraction of construction activity following its very rapid expansion in the early 1980s and (2) the overextension of business in anticipation of continued rapid economic growth and stimulus to the economy from increasing state and local government spending. These factors explain the general deterioration in the annual employment growth rate from its peak of 12 percent in early 1981. The recession clearly began before the precipitous drop in the price of oil which began in December 1985 and continued through the first six months of 1986. But the crash in oil prices made the recession longer and more severe. First, it led to a dramatic reduction of petroleum industry spending for exploration and development activities as well as a modest reduction of jobs in the industry itself. Second, it led to significant reductions in state II-4 and local government budgets--particularly capital budgets--and a lowering of expectations about the ability of government to maintain current levels of real expenditures. Finally, it significantly undermined business and consumer confidence in the economy. These factors continue to impact the economy negatively. Job loss has been concentrated in the construction and support-- trade, service, and finance--industries. Construction has experienced the largest absolute and relative decline in jobs. There are currently fewer construction jobs in Alaska than in early 1980, when the cycle began. The combined losses of jobs in the trade and service industries accounts for the bulk of the rest of the job loss in the economy. The transportation/communications/public utilities and finance industries together have lost lesser amounts. The petroleum industry lost only about one thousand jobs at the point of maximum industry retrenchment. Finally, the combined losses in employment in state and local government have, until now, been relatively minor. Employment in other basic industries has remained constant or has increased. We expect that the state economy will "bottom out" in 1988 as measured by employment. Losses experienced in trade, finance, service, and construction have restored a balance between these industries, which are dependent upon aggregate demand, and the basic sectors of the economy, which are the foundation of aggregate demand. The basic sectors--composed of petroleum, mining, federal government (including military), seafood, timber, and tourism--are all healthy, and most have experienced employment growth through the recession, helping to cushion the economic decline. With the restoration of this balance between aggregate demand and support activities, economic growth can resume. It will be a function of growth of basic sector activities as well as a continuation of the process of maturation of the economy. Employment growth will be impeded by the presence of excess capacity in certain sectors of the economy--most notably real estate--but this excess capacity will not prevent economic gains from basic sector growth from benefitting the general economy. Aggregate demand has been negatively influenced by the loss in wealth reflected in the fall in price of real property. Since this impacts investment, which is already at an extremely low level, further contraction as a result of this effect cannot be expected. At the bottom in 1988, the economy and population will be considerably larger than in 1980. Employment will be 21 percent greater than at the start of the expansion. Population will be about 27 percent greater. II-5 Cc. The Economy and Populat of the b As the economy has developed since statehood, economic activity and population growth have concentrated in the Railbelt so that currently about 70 percent of Alaskans live and work there (see Table EI.1):. The Railbelt is defined for the purposes of this study as the following Census Areas: Southern Railbelt Anchorage Borough Matanuska Susitna Borough Kenai Peninsula Borough Greater Fairbanks Fairbanks North Star Borough Southeast Fairbanks Census Area This geographical definition corresponds quite closely with the service areas of the 7 Railbelt electric utilities. The Railbelt is dominated by the Municipality of Anchorage with a population of 231 thousand (1987), which makes it the largest city in the state and the home to about 43 percent of all Alaskans. Anchorage is the trade, service, and financial center for most of the state as well as being a major center for state government functions. The rest of its economic base consists of a large military and civilian federal government presence; tourism; certain transportation functions centered at the airport and the railroad; and headquarters support for the petroleum, mining, and other basic industries located in the interior of the state. During the petrodollar boom, the support sectors of the Anchorage economy grew extremely rapidly, but they have been quick to respond to the contraction of aggregate demand as well. Closely linked to the Anchorage economy is the Matanuska- Susitna Borough, which lies to Anchorage’s north. Historically, this was a sparsely populated agricultural area centered around the community of Palmer, but in recent years, improved road transporta- tion from Anchorage has resulted in the transformation of at least parts of the area into a suburb of Anchorage centered in Wasilla. A significant portion of the population commutes to Anchorage and was drawn to the area by the relatively low housing prices, particularly during the high growth years of the early 1980s. In addition to serving as a residential community for people working in Anchorage and on the North Slope, people are drawn to the Matanuska-Susitna Borough by the area’s tourism, agriculture, mining, and forestry, although the actual numbers employed in these sectors is relatively small. South of Anchorage and somewhat less integrated into the Anchorage economy is the Kenai Peninsula Borough. The most significant basic industry in this area is the production and processing of petroleum from Cook Inlet, which has been an important contributor to the economy since statehood. Although the oil portion of the Cook Inlet field is in decline, significant gas remains and exploration continues to try to extend the life of the field in terms II-6 of oil production. An industrial complex at Nikiski is the site of two oil refineries as well as two natural gas processing plants. Other important basic industries in the area include fish harvesting and processing as well as tourism. As is the case with the Matanuska- Susitna Borough, a large portion of the tourism demand comes from Anchorage and a portion of the residents work on the North Slope. The towns on the Peninsula--Kenai, Soldotna, Homer, Seward, and Seldovia--are less dependent on the Anchorage economy than Palmer and Wasilla to the north because they are somewhat more remote. Fairbanks is the center of activity in the northern part of the Railbelt separated from Anchorage by 250 air miles but connected by both rail and road. With the small Census Area of Southeast Fairbanks, this is home to about 15 percent of the population of the state. The primary basic economic activities in the Northern Railbelt are the military, federal civilian employment, the University of Alaska, other state government, and tourism as well as regional support to the population and to natural resource development activities in the Interior part of the state, notably petroleum on the North Slope and mining. The effects of the recession have been somewhat mitigated in Fairbanks due to the initial phases of the deployment of a Light Infantry Division on the two Army bases in the area. This deployment is expected to continue over the next four years and to add significantly to both employment and population levels. The population of the Railbelt is young and mobile. As a consequence, population changes are primarily determined by economic opportunities. In periods of rapid economic growth, net in-migration from outside Alaska augments the increase in labor supply provided through natural increase. In contrast in periods of slow growth or decline when the resident labor supply exceeds the number of available jobs, there is net out-migration. This net out-migration can occur even as the population is increasing. The average house- hold size is close to the national average, and the labor force participation rate is significantly above the national average due primarily to the young age of the population. II-7 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DATA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY RAILBELT STUDIES Table II.1 : ANCHORAGE 2 [eoecweeccccccccccecccccccccce Employment(000)-------------seeseeenccennene ] [----Population(000)----] Pro- — Con- Alaska = Munici- : 7 Wage & pri- struc- Dept. pality/ : Year : Total Military Civilian Salary etors tion Basic Support Govt. of Labor Borough BEA : 1960 : 20.672 2.366 82.833 82.833 : 1965 : 30.678 3.127 102.337 102.337 : : 1969 : 40.476 40.476 37.786 2.690 3.142 8.346 17.817 29.035 114.150 114.150 123.300 : +100 3.514 9.117 20.433 29.229 126.385 126.385 127.600 : +366 3.924 9.984 22.439 29.975 136.500 135.777 134.600 : +604 4.272 10.646 23.936 31.451 144.000 144.215 143.200 : : 1973: 68.261 13.842 54.419 50.627 3.792 4.178 11.399 25.117 31.745 146.100 149.440 147.300 : : 1974: 75.732 12.581 63.151 58.813 4.338 5.882 13.745 30.239 31.748 151.000 162.499 152.400 : 2 : 1970: 58.779 13.684 45.095 41.995 3 3 3 3 3 4 : 1975 : 86.817 12.486 74.331 69.608 4.723 6.838 15.657 38.037 33.123 173.600 177.817 165.000 : 5 6 6 7 7; : 1971: 62.398 13.580 48.818 45.452 : 1972 : 66.033 14.177 51.856 48.252 : 1976 : 90.258 12.018 78.240 73.021 5.219 7.587 17.822 41.157 31.279 187.400 179.837 174.500 : : 1977 : 95.220 11.948 83.272 76.995 6.277 7.795 19.505 42.608 33.107 189.700 182.920 177.000 : : 1978: 95.362 11.716 83.646 76.893 6.753 6.431 18.671 43.862 32.829 183.600 180.246 179.600 : : 1979: 96.415 11.862 84.553 77.502 7.051 5.735 18.602 43.791 34.022 180.200 174.594 178.800 : : 1980 : 96.938 10.914 86.024 78.174 7.850 5.427 19.684 44.719 32.920 174.431 174.431 176.400 : : 1981 : 104.916 10.833 94.083 86.162 7.921 5.894 20.781 50.251 33.884 190.274 187.761 184.100 : : 1982 : 117.284 10.955 106.329 98.081 8.248 7.899 24.511 55.586 34.187 202.172 204.216 198.600 : 10.531 102.703 9.405 25.734 61.979 34.771 217.591 230.846 218.000 : 10.904 108.386 9.688 26.523 67.051 35.521 227.214 244.030 227.500 : 10.829 110.888 8.838 235.757 248.263 232.300 : 105.602 6.379 236.934 248.050 235.000 : 231.492 229.117 3 C : Consumer Per Capita : -Households- Price Total Per Capita Disposable Disposable : Number Size Index (Million $) (Thousand $) (Million $) (Thousand $) (000) 1967=100 Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ 21.853 3.41 91.5 3 94.1 2 2 105.9 $675.6 $1,788.2 $5.48 $14.51 $568.9 $1,505.7 $4.62 $12.22 : 1970 : 34.988 3.39 109.6 $752.7 $1,925.0 $5.90 $15.09 $642.8 $1,644.0 $5.04 $12.89 : 1971 : 112.9 $816.3 $2,026.7 $6.06 $15.06 $700.4 $1,738.9 $5.20 $12.92 : 1972: 115.9 $890.5 $2,153.6 $6.22 $15.04 $749.8 $1,813.4 $5.24 $12.66 : 1973: 120.8 $985.0 $2,285.6 $6.69 $15.51 $845.1 $1,961.0 $5.74 $13.31 : 1974 : 133.9 $1,233.2 $2,581.5 $8.09 $16.94 $1,029.7 $2,155.6 $6.76 $14.15 : 1975: 152.3 $1,706.9 $3,141.5 $10.34 $19.03 $1,418.4 $2,610.6 $8.59 $15.82 : 1976: 164.1 $2,075.2 $3,544.7 $11.89 $20.31 $1,724.5 $2,945.6 $9.88 $16.88 : 1977 : 175.1 $2,312.1 $3,701.2 $13.06 $20.91 $1,923.7 $3,079.4 $10.87 $17.40 : 1978 : 187.4 $2,310.2 $3,455.4 $12.86 $19.24 $1,947.5 $2,912.9 $10.84 $16.22 : 1979 : 205.7 $2,393.8 $3,261.9 $13.39 $18.24 $1,972.5 $2,687.8 $11.03 $15.03 : 1980 : 60.470 2.80 224.6 $2,649.5 $3,306.6 $15.02 $18.74 $2,215.0 $2,764.3 $12.55 $15.67 : 1981: 241.9 $3,124.8 $3,620.8 $16.98 $19.67 $2,546.7 $2,951.0 $13.84 $16.03 : 1982: 255.7 $3,844.1 $4,213.9 $19.35 $21.21 $3,190.6 $3,497.6 $16.06 $17.61 : 1983 : 257.5 $4,371.8 $4,758.9 $20.05 $21.83 $3,659.2 $3,983.2 $16.78 $18.27 : 1984: 267.7 $4,623.1 $4,840.7 $20.32 $21.28 $3,938.9 $4,124.3 $17.31 $18.13 : 1985 : 275.4 $4,838.8 $4,924.9 $20.83 $21.20 $4,190.4 $4,265.0 $18.04 $18.36 : 1986: 280.3 $4,828.8 $4,828.8 $20.55 $20.55 $4,172.1 $4,172.1 $17.76 $17.76 1987 : Sources: See notes at the end of data. ISER MAP DATABASE 25-May-88 i II-8 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DATA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY RAILBELT STUDIES Table II.1 (Cont) NAI PENINSULA BOROUGH [orcccrenscecewrrenccceseceses Employment (000)----------------------------- ] [----Population(000)----] Pro- Con- Alaska = Munici- Wage & pri- struc- Dept. pality/ Total Military Civilian Salary etors tion Basic Support Govt. of Labor Borough BEA 0.927 0.053 9.053 9.053 Geant 0.525 10.659 10.659 : z : 4.792 4.792 4.792 0.736 16.250 16.300 16.200: = 1970 5.543 0.575 4.968 4.268 0.700 0.354 16.586 16.586 16.500 : 1971 : 5.424 0.436 4.988 4.226 0.762 0.469 17.200 16.782 16.500 : 1972 : 5.619 0.106 5.513 4.632 0.881 0.445 17.700 16.200 16.700 : 2 "97a > 5.949 0.068 5.881 4.923 0.958 0.374 18.400 16.254 15.900: 2 1974: 6.632 0.068 6.564 5.422 1.142 0.456 19.200 16.645 16.100: 2 1978: 7.645 0.075 7.570 6.738 0.832 0.634 21.300 18.770 18.300 : § 1976.5 8.613 0.068 8.545 7.602 0.943 1.066 22.500 21.843 19.800 : 2 1977 ¢ 9.721 0.071 9.650 8.487 1.163 1.844 23.900 24.611 21.400 : : 1978 : 9.122 0.052 9.070 7.782 1.288 0.497 24.500 25.335 22.600: 3. 1979": 9.596 0.070 9.526 8.138 1.388 0.418 25.800 25.507 23.500 : : 1980 : 9.868 0.074 9.794 8.397 1.397 0.617 25.282 25.282 25.700 : : 1981: 10.599 0.072 10.527 9.115 1.412 0.705 27.086 26.520 27.500 : : 1982: 11.396 0.072 11.324 9.853 1.471 0.795 31.989 32.303 30.600 : : 1983 : 0.072 10.399 1.005 34.602 35.769 33.800 : 1984 : 0.070 11.402 1.326 38.285 38.919 37.600 : 1985 : 0.072 12.213 1.387 39.331 39.180 41.300 : 1986 11.435 0.864 40.414 43.612 43.200 : ; Consumer Per Capita : -Households- Price Total Per Capita Disposable Disposable : : Number Size Index (Million $) (Thousand $) (Million $) (Thousand $) : Year : (000) 1967=100 Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ 21960: 2.652 3.24 91.5 2 1965 : 94.1 s° 1969's 105.9 $60.9 $161.2 $3.76 $9.95 $51.3 $135.7 $3.17 $8.38 : 1970 : 4.611 3.48 109.6 $67.9 $173.7 $4.12 $10.52 $58.0 $148.3 $3.51 $8.99 2 1971 : 112.9 $74.7 $185.5 $4.53 $11.24 $64.1 $159.1 $3.88 $9.64 : 1972 : 115.9 $81.1 $196.1 $4.86 $11.74 $68.3 $165.1 $4.09 $9.89 2 1973.3 120.8 $95.1 $220.7 $5.98 $13.88 $81.6 $189.3 $5.13 $11.91 2: 1974: 133.9 $118.0 $247.0 $7.33 $15.34 $98.5 $206.3 $6.12 $12.81 3 1975 : 152.3 $172.1 $316.7 $9.40 $17.31 $143.0 $263.2 $7.81 $14.38 : 1976: 164.1 $225.2 $384.7 $11.37 $19.43 $187.1 $319.7 $9.45 $16.14 3 1977-3 tie $269.2 $430.9 $12.58 $20.14 $224.0 $358.5 $10.47 $16.75 3 1976 -: 187.4 $287.5 $430.0 $12.72 $19.03 $242.4 $362.5 $10.72 $16.04 £1979 = 205.7 $311.6 $424.6 $13.25 $18.05 $256.8 $349.9 $10.91 $14.87 : 1980 : 8.546 2.92 224.6 $353.5 $441.2 $13.74 $17.14 $295.5 $368.8 $11.48 $14.33 : 1981: 241.9 $396.9 $459.9 $14.44 $16.73 $323.5 $374.8 $11.77 $13.64 2 1982 : 255.7 $470.6 $515.9 $15.36 $16.83 $390.6 $428.2 $12.75 $13.97 $) 1983's 23755 $541.6 $589.6 $16.03 $17.45 $453.3 $493.5 $13.42 $14.61 : 1984 : 267.7 $577.0 $604.2 $15.33 $16.05 $491.6 $514.7 $13.06 $13.68 : : 1985 : 275.4 $628.2 $639.4 $15.23 $15.50 $544.0 $553.7 $13.19 $13.42 : 2 1986 : 280.3 $593.2 $593.2 $13.74 $13.74 $512.5 $512.5 $11.87 $11.87 = : 1987 Sources: See notes at the end of data. ISER MAP DATABASE 25-May-88 II-9 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DATA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY RAILBELT STUDIES Table II.1 (Cont) Sa Seaesasesssssssesssssssssesssssssesesssssssssessesesessssesssees: :MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH [errr e rece c ence nee e eee e ee e- eee Employment (000)----------------------------- 1 [----Population(000)----] Pro- Con- Alaska Munici- : : Wage & pri- struc- Dept. pality/ : Year : Total Military Civilian Salary etors tion Basic Support Govt. of Labor Borough BEA 1960 : 0.529 0.022 5.188 5.220 1965 : 1.082 0.078 6.125 3 : 1969 : 1.393 1.393 1.001 0.392 0.083 7.000 6.400 : 1970 : 1.592 0.006 1.586 1.145 0.441 0.120 6.509 6.509 6.700 2 1971 ¢ 1.856 0.000 1.856 1.414 0.442 0.141 7.200 7.293 7.300 : 1972 : 1.909 0.000 1.909 1.445 0.464 0.087 7.800 8.310 7.800 : 3 1973 : 2.093 0.000 2.093 1.607 0.486 0.098 8.500 8.170 8.400 : : 1974: 2.330 0.000 2.330 1.784 0.546 0.134 9.400 9.787 9.000: s 1975 : 2.550 0.000 2.550 2.020 0.530 0.188 11.100 12.462 10.200 1976 : 2.882 0.000 2.882 2.269 0.613 0.208 13.500 14.606 11.600 1977 : 3.466 0.147 3.319 2.524 0.795 0.219 15.500 15.573 12.700 1978 : 3.971 0.158 3.813 2.954 0.859 0.235 16.700 15.400 14.400 1979 : 4.201 0.147 4.054 3.078 0.976 0.184 18.400 18.536 16.200 1980 : 4.378 0.057 4.321 3.264 1.057 0.178 17.816 17.816 17.900 1981 : 4.775 0.000 4.775 3.700 1.075 0.253 19.522 22.329 18.000 : 1982 : 5.504 0.000 5.504 4.382 1.122 0.518 22.560 27.649 20.300: : 1983 : 0.000 5.354 0.778 27.524 30.568 24.200 : : 1984 : 0.000 6.542 0.971 33.162 34.122 29.000 : 1985 : 0.000 6.996 0.710 37.295 41.093 36.100: 1986 : 3 C Consumer Per Capita -Households- Price Total Per Capita Disposable Disposable : Number Size Index (Million $) (Thousand $) (Million $) (Thousand $) Year : (000) 1967=100 Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ : 1960 1.501 3.38 91.5 s 1965 : 94.1 2 1969 : 105.9 $27.3 $72.3 $4.24 $11.23 $23.0 $60.8 $3.57 $9.46 : 1970 : 1.841 3.40 109.6 $31.7 $81.1 $4.76 $12.18 $27.1 $69.2 $4.07 $10.40 : $ 112.9 $37.7 $93.6 $5.20 $12.91 $32.3 $80.3 $4.46 $11.08 115.9 $45.4 $109.8 $5.81 $14.05 $38.2 $92.5 $4.89 $11.83 : 120.8 $51.7 $120.1 $6.15 $14.27 $44.4 $103.0 $5.28 $12.24 133.9 $69.8 $146.1 $7.78 $16.29 $58.3 $122.0 $6.50 $13.60 152.3 $104.3 $192.0 $10.22 $18.81 $86.7 $159.5 $8.49 $15.63 164.1 $137.6 $235.0 $11.83 $20.20 $114.3 $195.3 $9.83 $16.79 175.1 $161.5 $258.5 $12.74 $20.39 $134.4 $215.1 $10.60 $16.97 187.4 $182.7 $273.3 $12.66 $18.93 $154.0 $230.4 $10.67 $15.96 205.7 $195.7 $266.7 $12.08 $16.46 $161.3 $219.7 $9.95 $13.56 5.699 3.06 224.6 $220.0 $274.6 $12.31 $15.37 $183.9 $229.5 $10.29 $12.85 241.9 $274.2 $317.7 $15.20 $17.62 $223.5 $258.9 $12.39 $14.36 255.7 $361.0 $395.7 $17.76 $19.47 $299.6 $328.5 $14.74 $16.16 257.5 $450.4 $490.3 $18.64 $20.29 $377.0 $410.4 $15.60 $16.98 267.7 $515.9 $540.2 $17.80 $18.64 $439.5 $460.2 $15.16 $15.88 275.4 $538.6 $548.2 $14.90 $15.17 $466.4 $474.7 $12.91 $13.14 280.3 $527.1 $527.1 $13.51 $13.51 $455.4 $455.4 $11.67 $11.67 Sources: See notes at the end of data. ISER MAP DATABASE 25-May-88 II-10 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DATA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY RAILBELT STUDIES Table II.1 (Cont) [pseereseresceeerressreseesso-| Employment (000) -<<<<<<s=<<~<eeneos ane co~< so 1 [----Population(000)----] Pro- Con- Alaska Munici- Wage & pri- struc- Dept. pality/ Total Military Civilian Salary etors tion Basic Support Govt. of Labor Borough BEA Zi : 9.880 7.446 1.463 43.412 3 1965 =: 9.740 11.508 1.229 45.052 : 2 1969 = 23.527 8.900 14.627 13.878 0.824 1.216 48.800 : : 1970: 23.411 9.031 15.233 14.451 0.864 1.255 50.043 45.864 50.100: : 1971: 22.924 8.307 15.382 14.647 0.826 1.205 52.600 44.415 51.500 : 3 1972.3 eg-729 7.105 16.424 15.583 0.945 1.167 53.000 46.058 52.100 : : 1973 : 22.006 6.749 16.117 15.479 0.734 1.175 54.100 50.450 52.300 : 1974 : 25.973 6.229 20.433 19.750 0.800 3.146 57.300 58.007 53.000 : : 1975: 37.740 6.127 31.613 30.522 1.091 6.106 62.100 62.335 56.500 : : 1976: 37.690 5.772 31.918 30.685 1.233 7.277 67.000 72.037 61.200: : 1977 : 33.476 6.265 27.211 25.683 1.528 4.366 67.700 69.578 60.500 : : 1978 : 30.263 6.171 24.092 22.487 1.605 1.960 63.900 60.845 60.500 : <9 = «| 50-217. 6.429 23.788 22.242 1.546 1.631 63.500 55.804 60.400 : : 1980: 29.926 6.027 23.899 22.016 1.883 1.598 59.659 57.432 59.800 : : 1981: 32.236 6.339 25.897 23.993 1.904 1.852 64.858 60.200 : : 1982: 33.921 5.913 28.008 26.026 1.982 2.206 68.944 63.400 : : 1983 : 6.656 27.303 2.562 73.656 65.311 68.600 : : 1984 : 6.811 29.016 2.928 76.668 69.633 70.000 : : 1985: 6.630 30.255 3.160 78.980 75.079 72.600 : : 1986: 28.855 1.713 80.362 74.200 : : 1987 79.587 E Per Capita Households- Price Total Per Capita Disposable Disposable umber Size Index (Million $) (Thousand $) (Million $) (Thousand $) 000) 1967=100 Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ Nominal 1986$ 1.056 3.32 91.5 3 1965 : 94.1 : 1969 : 105.9 $221.4 $586.0 $4.54 $12.01 $186.4 $493.4 $3.82 $10.11 : 1970 : 12.617 3.38 109.6 $239.9 $613.5 $4.79 $12.25 $204.9 $524.0 $4.09 $10.46 3 1971 : 112.9 $247.4 $614.2 $4.80 $11.93 $212.3 $527.0 $4.12 $10.23 3) 172i 2 115.9 $265.6 $642.3 $5.10 $12.33 $223.6 $540.9 $4.29 $10.38 31973 : 120.8 $288.2 $668.7 $5.51 $12.79 $247.3 $573.8 $4.73 $10.97 : 1974: 133.9 $413.3 $865.2 $7.80 $16.32 $345.1 $722.4 $6.51 $13.63 24975 i: 152.3 $791.9 $1,457.4 $14.02 $25.80 $658.1 $1,211.1 $11.65 $21.44 2 1926 = 164.1 $878.7 $1,500.9 $14.36 $24.52 $730.2 $1,247.3 $11.93 $20.38 3 1977 : 175.1 $722.8 $1,157.1 $11.95 $19.12 $601.4 $962.7 $9.94 $15.91 3 1978 : 187.4 $681.0 $1,018.6 $11.26 $16.84 $574.1 $858.7 $9.49 $14.19 2 1929r: 205.7 $698.6 $952.0 $11.57 $15.76 $575.6 $784.4 $9.53 $12.99 : 1980 : 19.890 2.81 224.6 $757.2 $945.0 $12.66 $15.80 $633.0 $790.0 $10.59 $13.21 s 1981 : 241.9 $872.3 $1,010.8 $14.49 $16.79 $710.9 $823.8 $11.81 $13.68 3 1982 : 255.7 $1,064.8 $1,167.2 $16.79 $18.41 $883.8 $968.8 $13.94 $15.28 : 1983: 257.5 $1,175.3 $1,279.4 $17.13 $18.65 $983.7 $1,070.8 $14.34 $15.61 : 1984: 267.7 $1,230.5 $1,288.4 $17.58 $18.41 $1,048.4 $1,097.7 $14.98 $15.68 : 1985 : 275.4 $1,287.9 $1,310.8 $17.74 $18.06 $1,115.3 $1,135.2 $15.36 $15.64 : 1986 : 280.3 $1,247.2 $1,247.2 $16.81 $16.81 $1,077.6 $1,077.6 $14.52 $14.52 1987 Sources: See notes at the end of data. (A)Includes Fairbanks & Southeast Fairbanks Census Areas. Note: Municipality/Borough population numbers do not include Southeast Fairbanks. ISER MAP DATABASE 25-May-88 II-11 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DATA ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY RAILBELT STUDIES Table II.1 (Cont) Sources:Total Employment (M): Sum of wage and salary, military, and proprietors. Military: Alaska Department of Labor, active duty personnel. Civilian (M96): Total minus military. Wage and Salary (M97): Alaska Department of Labor, annual average, from Statistical Quarterly. The 1960 figures are for workers covered by unemployment insurance only; excludes almost all government employment. Proprietors: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, full time proprietors only (old definition of self employed). Construction (BCN): Alaska Department of Labor, annual average. Note: Kenai Peninsula Borough, 1969, 1970 and 1979 does not include Seward. Greater Fairbanks, 1975, 1978-79, and 1986 does not include Southeast Fairbanks. Total employment can be divided into the following categories: Basic (B): Includes mining, construction, manufacturing, agriculture- forestry-fisheries, tourism, exogenous transportation, and proprietors. Support (S): Includes all other not in Basic or Government. Government (G): Includes federal government (civilian and military), state government, and local government. Population: Various estimates, 1. Source: Alaska Department of Labor 2. Source: Borough 3. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Households (HHCEN): US Census of Population. Household Size (HSIZ): US Census of Population. Consumer Price Index (PDANCPI): Anchorage Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners--CPI-wW, US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Personal Income : US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (Real Values are deflated by the Anchorage Consumer Price Index.) Per Capita Personal Income : US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (Real Values are deflated by the Anchorage Consumer Price Index.) This variable uses the BEA population estimates. Disposable Personal Income (DPI): ISER Calculation. Per Capita Disposable Personal Income (PDP): ISER Calculation. ISER MAP DATABASE 25-May-88 i II-12 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 III. METHODS AND ASSUMPTIONS A. Uncertainty Projecting employment and households for Alaska and the Railbelt region of the state requires answers to three questions. First, how will the economic base of the state grow in future years. Second, how will secondary sectors of the economy respond to that growth as well as other influences, in particular national economic growth. Third, how will the population of the state respond to _ those opportunities. First, the economy of the state is based upon natural resource extraction and is consequently very sensitive to both short-term fluctuations in world commodity markets and longer-term trends in world supply and demand for petroleum, timber, seafood, and other primary commodities. This is most obvious with respect to petroleum where short-term fluctuations in price during the past decade have had a major effect on economic growth and decline in the state. Although over the next two decades the state economy will continue to be very dependent upon petroleum extraction, both the prospects for growth in price and the size of the recoverable resource base are uncertain. It is important to reiterate that growth in basic sector employment has directly contributed few new jobs to the economy. Table III.1 presents a number of indicators of basic sector activity and shows that basic sector employment growth has been relatively modest. Basic sector growth is, however, a necessary condition for sustained economic growth. Second, the economy is young and still maturing. Twenty-five years ago the structure of the economy could be best described as “frontier" with little activity either in support of the local population or the extractive industries (including federal government activity) which dominated the economy. Today a significant support structure exists to provide services and goods to the local popula- tion and_ basic industries. This transformation can be _ seen graphically in Figure III.1 which shows the number of secondary sector workers (defined as trade, services, finance, construction, transportation, utilities, and state/local government) for each job in the basic sectors of the economy (defined as federal employment {including military], petroleum extraction and processing, seafood harvesting and processing, timber harvesting and processing, tourism, mining, and agriculture). At the time of statehood, there was less than one secondary job for each job in the basic industries. In recent years, there have been more than 2.5 secondary jobs for each basic sector job. Several reasons behind this transformation were discussed in Chapter 2. III-1 Table III.1 ALASKA BASIC INDUSTRY: INDICATORS OF ACTIVITY PART 1 PETROLEUM TIMBER HARVESTING PRODJCTION PRODUCTION VALUE PRODUCTION VOLUME VOLUME EMPLOYMENT PRODUCTION PTRELING «| | | co meeero soca ae mann nneno eons EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT ; (MELLION $) 0 ----=----s----5 ----------=---=- ( THOUSANDS ) ( THOUSANDS ) (MILLION BOARD (THOUSANDS) (MILLION BBLS) (BILL CUBIC FT) FEET) 1960 4 1 0 NE NE 367 NE 1961 54 6 1 599 000 363 -662 1962 96 10 2 684 -000 394 734 1963 102 ll 4 738 -000 421 +905 1964 106 ll 6 -761 -000 474 -946 1965 107 ll 7 - 661 -000 440 1.080 1966 134 14 ll +942 000 515 1.266 1967 266 29 14 1.602 -000 535 1.616 1968 524 66 7 2.152 -000 591 1.570 1969 604 74 51 3.218 000 581 1.581 1970 715 84 112 2.640 -000 628 1.743 1971 685 79 122 2.090 -000 575 1.754 1972 615 73 126 1.792 000 606 1.799 1973 654 72 131 1.671 -000 656 2.177 1974 774 71 129 2.586 -000 631 2.495 1975 761 70 160 3.406 -000 468 2.176 1976 656 63 166 3.565 -000 531 2.050 1977 1,690 169 162 4.571 550 487 2.227 1978 4,184 449 176 5.175 1.100 445 1.841 1979 7,267 510 182 5.354 1.100 495 2.137 1980 12,284 592 175 6.159 1.100 589 2.469 1981 16,279 588 190 8.117 1.100 564 2.179 1982 13,810 618 202 8.085 1.100 593 2.062 1983 12,396 629 213 7.443 1.100 526 1.842 © 1984 12,000 627 213 8.048 1.000 492 1.701 1985 11,692 666 224 8.869 -940 543 1.692 1986 4,684 677 193 8.508 - 885 NA 1.834 PETROLEUM VALUE (DF.VALP9) IS AT WELLHEAD IN 1987 $ USING ANCHORAGE CPI. PETOLEUM VOLUME--OIL (VOLP.0) AND GAS (VOLP.G)--IS NET PRODUCTION. PET20LEUM PRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT (EMPP). PIPELINE EMPLOYMENT (EMT9X) IS ALYESKA PIPELINE ONLY. TIM3ER HARVEST VOLUME (VOLTS) IS FROM PUBLIC LANDS ONLY. TIM3ER HARVEST EMPLOYMENT (EMML) IS SIC 24. III-2 Table III.1 ALASKA BASIC INDUSTRY: INDICATORS OF ACTIVITY PART 2 FISH HARVESTING MINING AGRICULTURE PROD JCTION PRODUCTION PRODUCTION VA_UE VOLUME EMPLOYMENT COAL VOLUME TOTAL VALUE EMPLOYMENT VALUE (MILLION $) (MILLION LBS.) (THOUSANDS) (MILLION TONS) (MILLION $) (THOUSANDS ) (MILLION $) 1960 \E NE NE 0.7 61 NE 17 1961 NE NE 4.245 0.6 NA 594 17 1962 VA NA 4.294 0.7 NA 549 17 1963 NA NA 4.141 0.9 103 -456 16 1964 NA NA 4.587 0.7 92 - 388 7 1965 YA NA 4.586 0.9 140 -427 16 1966 vA NA 4.970 0.9 104 -431 15 1967 NA NA 4.000 0.9 110 -365 15 1968 NA NA 4.403 0.8 84 -300 13 1969 YA NA 4.003 0.7 91 276 ll 1970 VA NA 4.743 0.8 139 354 13 1971 A NA 4.412 0.7 137 340 12 1972 A NA 4.344 0.7 61 -321 15 1973 vA NA 4.764 0.7 126 296 16 1974 317 470 4.520 0.7 269 390 17 1975 236 444 4.377 0.8 270 384 17 1976 405 615 Saige 0.7 _ 437 -400 15 1977 351 671 6.007 0.8 299 387 , 16 1978 7157 779 FALL 0.8 246 -387 14 1979 397 873 7.750 0.8 214 419 13 1980 704 994 7.620 0.8 191 526 12 1981 750 1002 7.898 0.8 219 793 14 1982 531 903 8.285 0.8 216 3795 14 1983 597 990 7.946 0.8 231 -738 17. 1984 536 1004 8.202 0.8 208 -654 17 1985 317 1105 NE 1.4 230 644 15 1986 \E NE NE 1,5 198 571 17 FIS4 HARVESTING VALUE (DF.VALF9) IS FOR FISH LANDED IN ALASKA IN 1987 $ USING ANCHORAGE CPI. FIS4 HARVEST VOLUME (VOLF9) IS FOR FISH LANDED IN ALASKA. FIS4 HARVEST EMPLOYMENT (EMFISH). COA_ PRODUCTION (VOLM.C). MINING VALUE OF OUTPUT (DF.VALM) INCLUDES ALL MINERALS AS WELL AS SAN) AND GRAVEL, IN 1987 $ USING ANCHORAGE CPI. MINING EMPLOYMENT (EMPMINE) INCLUDES ONLY WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT. AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT VALUE (DF.VALAG) IS PRODUCTION VALUE IN 1987 $ USING ANCHORAGE CPI. Tit=3 Table III.1 ALASKA BASIC INDUSTRY: INDICATORS OF ACTIVITY PART 3 RESOURCE PROCESSING FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TOURISM TIMBER PETROLEUM ACTIVE DUTY FISH PRICESSING PROCESSING PROCESSING MILITARY CIVILIAN wanna nana nanan nana nanan nn nnn nn nn nn nnn nnn cnn n ene nc ne ne ne enna nen ne none NO. OF TOURISTS. EMPLOYMENT EMPL YMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) 1960 NE NE 000 32.700 NE NE NE 1961 2.789 1.000 -000 32.500 15.600 39 1.045 1962 2.834 1.166 -000 33.000 15.700 45 1.072 1963 2.855 1.142 -000 33.000 16.573 52 1.105 1964 2.638 1.187 NA 32.400 17.258 59 1.139 1965 3.006 1.228 NA 33.000 17.432 70 1.191 1966 3.373 1.060 NA 33.200 17.506 73 1.209 1967 3.090 957. NA 33.700 17.421 87 1.282 1968 3.312 947 NA 32.600 _ 16.859 90 1.300 1969 3.190 967 -038 32.300 16.452 107 1.398 1970 3.740 1.016 052 31.425 17.111 129 1.536 ~ 1971 3.611 1.010 -069 29.919 17.270 162 1.769 1972 3.745 1.013 -065 27.907 17.235 182 1.930 1973 4.576 1.022 -062 27.064 17.164 215 2.223 1974 4.292 1.244 052 25.529 18.014 248 2.553 1975 4.320 1.202 072 e5.e72 18.288 285 2.992 1976 5.125 1.198 -084 24.539 17.944 327 3.593 1977 §.477 1.197 116 24.948 17.734 389 4.677 1978 6.259 1.050 -190 23.101 18.085 402 4.945 1979 7.123 1.018 - 180 23 .323 17.915 420 5.341 1980 7.809 1.044 -228 22.003 17.716 439 5.794 1981 8.096 -985 192 22.451 17.476 447 5.995 1982 6.911 -820 168 22.103 17.640 467 6.532 1983 6.337 2155 - 188 22.267 17.731 485 7.055 1984 §.752 598 204 22.579 18.075 519 8.015 1985 6.385 -629 -234 23.073 17.567 555 8.474 1986 6.812 -827 254 22.953 17.831 583 8.830" FIS4 PROCESSING (EMMF) INCLUDES SOME OTHER FOOD PROCESSING (SIC 20). TIM3ER PROCESSING (EMMP) INCLUDES THE PULP INDUSTRY (SIC 26). PET2OLEUM PROCESSING (EM29) IS SIC 29. ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY (EMGM) . FED=RAL CIVILIAN (EMGC). TOURISTS (TOURIST) INCLUDES ONLY OUT-OF-STATE VISITORS FOR PLEASURE. TOU2ISM EMPLOYMENT (EMTOUR) OCCURS IN TRADE, SERVICES, AND TRANSPORTATION. III-4 SUPPORT, INFRA. AND ST/LOC GOVT JOBS NUMBER OF RESIDENT ALASKANS. Figure III.1 SECONDARY JOBS FOR EACH BASIC JOB ALASKA ECONOMY RRR SE SES Se eee e eee 2.6 + ile — +. ++ TT 2.4 22 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.8 ee 04 0.2 —— T + 0 I 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101103105107109 SOURCE: ISER DATABASE AND PROJECTION Figure III.2 ALASKA RESIDENTS FOR EACH JOB 2.6 + rer r TT] 2.3 -— _ + + ++ 2.2 + + 1. - t : 1.9 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101103105107109 SOURCE: ISER DATABASE AND PROJECTION Note: The projection is the MIDDLE CASE. III-5 Third, the population of the state and in particular of the Railbelt is young, mobile, and responsive to economic incentives. The footloose nature of the non-Native population (about 85 percent of the total) is apparently less pronounced now than it was at the time of statehood but is still an important consideration in the determination of how many people will choose to reside in the state. The Native population, which is underrepresented in the Railbelt, is also young but has not displayed the mobility of the non-Native population. The relationship between population and employment in the state is shown in Figure III.2. The number of residents for each job in the economy has been trending downward, primarily due to the growth of the market economy and the in-migration of non-Natives to take advantage of the opportunities offered by that growth. The young age and high labor force participation rate of these in-migrants explains the downward trend. Slower economic growth will reduce the importance of this in-migration (long-term net out-migration occurs in many of the projections prepared for this study). This factor, coupled with a continuing increase in the labor force participation rate and decreasing household size nationally as well as the changing status of Alaska Natives, accounts for much of the uncertainty in projecting population. B. General Approach The development of cumulative probability distributions for Railbelt employment and households captures this uncertainty. The method for generating the distributions involved the following steps: 1. Identify the "critical assumptions" which have both a high degree of uncertainty and a large effect on projected employment and households. The identification of 7 assumptions was based on two previous comprehensive studies of the sensitivity of projection results to different assumptions. These analyses were conducted as part of the Susitna License Application Studies. The critical assumptions are as follows: i. world oil price ii. Alaska oil production iii. federal employment in Alaska (including military) iv. tourist visitors to Alaska v. national real wage rates vi. labor force participation rate in Alaska vii. real rate of return of the Alaska Permanent Fund III-6 Develop reasonable alternative values for these "critical assumptions" based upon historical patterns; review of studies of the future of the state economy, the national economy, and particular markets; and professional judgment. For each of the "critical assumptions," except those concerning oil, two alter- native scenarios were developed representing a higher and lower growth assumption, respectively. For petroleum, three price scenarios produced for the Alaska Power Authority (APA) by ICF were each combined with two production scenarios consistent with each price, yielding a total of six price/production scenario combinations. Assign probabilities to the alternative scenarios for each of the "critical assumptions." Preliminary probabilities for all scenarios except oil price were chosen by the author. These were reviewed and revised based upon discussions with Lee Gorsuch, Director of ISER, Dick Emerman, economist at APA, and Bob LeResche, Director of APA. During this process, there were also some revisions to the alternative scenarios. Finally, these probabilities were reviewed by the APA Board of Directors. The Board of Directors chose the probabilities for the three oil price scenarios developed by ICF. The scenarios for the "critical assumptions" as well as the final probabilities attached to each scenario are presented in Appendix C. Develop "core assumptions" for other inputs used in the projections. All assumptions not identified as critical were held constant for all the projections. These assumptions are characterized by the fact that either their variation has relatively little effect on the projection values of employment and households or that there is little uncertainty concerning likely values. Many of these "core assumptions" are descriptions of specific development projects. These must be interpreted as representative of the type of project likely to occur rather than as literal predictions of projects. The "core assumptions" are described in Appendix D. Generate a projection under each set of “critical assumption" values. Given seven "critical assumptions," each with two alternatives (with the exception of oil price, which has three alternatives), there are 192 possible projections (3*2*2*2*2*2%2). The possible outcomes are displayed as the 192 branches of a tree in Figure III.3. Each possible path through the branches from left to right in the diagram represents a unique set of "critical assumptions" used in the production of one of the 192 possible projections. A subset of projections was actually generated using the MAP Econometric Modeling System. Based on the results of this subset of projections numbering approximately 50, we were able to infer values for the remaining projections. III-7 Figure III.3. PROJECTION TREE Critical Assumption Oi7 Petroleum Federal Wage Perm. Fund Households Price Production Employment Tourism Rates Rate of Return Per Employee — Case Case 2 Scenario I Case 1 Repeat Pattern Case 2 Case 2 Case 3 Case 2 Scenario IL — <a case 4 a ————— tee Case 2 Ss cenario III IlI-8 Develop probability distributions for projection results. The likelihood of each of the 192 projections is determined by the probabilities of each of the "critical assumptions" used in the generation of each projection. Consequently, each projection has a_ very low probability of occurrence, but it is possible to aggregate the cases into cumulative probability distributions. A cumulative probability distribution shows with what probability a variable will be less than a particular value. The projection results for Railbelt employment and households in 2010 were ranked from lowest to highest, the probability of occurrence of each value was determined, and cumulative probability distributions were generated for those variables. These cumulative probability distributions are shown in Figures III.4 and III.6. The frequency distributions for each variable are shown in Figures III.5 and III.7. Choose projection cases which generate outcomes at appropriate points on the cumulative probability distributions for presentation in Chapter 4. Five points on the cumulative probability distributions were chosen, and projection cases which produced the variable values at those points were identified. The points chosen and the case names associated with those points are as follows: "Middle" Case 50% probability that employment and house- holds will exceed this level and 50% probability that employment and households will be less than this level, based upon the probabilities assigned to critical assumptions "Low" Case 83.5% probability that employment and households will exceed this level and 16.5% probability that employment and households will be less than this level, based upon the probabilities assigned to critical assumptions "High" Case 16.5% probability that employment and households will exceed this level and 83.5% probability that employment and households will be less than this level, based upon the probabilities assigned to critical assumptions "Lowest" Case 100% probability that employment and households will exceed this level, based upon the probabilities assigned to critical assumptions "Highest" Case 0% probability that employment’ and households will exceed this level, based upon the probabilities assigned to critical assumptions III-9 Figure III. 4 RAILBELT HOUSEHOLDS: YEAR 2010 CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION 100% + T T 90% qu - E 3 80% —— 2 | a 70% ~ —— + a + 4 FE Z 60% —— } ——__ : una T 4 | mn 40% + —~ + —> +—| 5 30% T = <r T 4 20% —- —- t = ——| 4 a 10% +- + T “ay 0x 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 HOUSEHOLDS (000) Figure III. 5 RAILBELT HOUSEHOLDS: 2010 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION PROBABILITY OF THIS # OF HOUSEHOLDS 160 180 200 220 240 260 HOUSEHOLDS (000) III- 10 Figure III. 6 RAILBELT EMPLOYMENT: YEAR 2010 CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PROBABILITY OF FEWER THAN THIS AMOUNT 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 EMPLOYMENT (000) Figure III.7 RAILBELT EMPLOYMENT: 2010 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION 1.50% 1.40% 1.30% 1.20% 1.10% Bt YN | LAN PROBABILITY OF THIS # OF JOBS o a 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 EMPLOYMENT (000) III- 11 The "Middle" Case is representative of the mid-range of the distribution. The "Low" case is in the center of the lower third of the distribution and is chosen to be representative of this third. The "High" case is in the center of the upper third of the distribution and is chosen to be representative of this third. A number of different projection cases with different assump- tions produced household and employment levels consistent with the "Middle" case. Three have been chosen for presentation in Chapter 4. The selected cases are summarized in Table III.2. Tabular output from these projections appear in Appendixes A (Statewide) and B (Railbelt). TABLE III.2. REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTION CASES RAILBELT RAILBELT HOUSEHOLDS EMPLOYMENT CASE CUMULATIVE 2010 2010 CASE NAME IDENTIFIER PROBABILITY (000) (000) "LOWEST" APA1 Os 158.015 189.252 "Low" APA115 16.5% 177.904 217.792 "MIDDLE" 50% A APA74 200.946 244.110 B APA91 200.005 244.818 c APA105 197.109 244.295 "HIGH" APA1O 83.5% 218.212 270.183 "HIGHEST" APA192 100% 263.209 325.988 The relationship between Railbelt households and employment among the projections is not a strict ratio. That is, for any level of employment there is a distribution of possible household levels primarily because of the variability of the labor force participation rate among projections. This relationship is illustrated in Figure III.8 for the year 2010. This complicates the choice of the median projection case because the 50 percent case on the cumulative probability distribution for employment is not coincidental with the 50 percent case on the cumulative probability distribution for households. The choice of the 50 percent case was, as a consequence of this, a compromise in which employment and households were given equal weight. III-12 c. e Sensitivity of th roje ons to Probabilities Assigned to the Critica ssumptions The cumulative probability distribution of outcomes will change shape if the probabilities assigned to any of the critical assumption scenarios changes. To demonstrate the magnitude of this effect, we changed the probabilities assigned to the oil price assumption as follows: Oil Price Probability Scenario Sensitivity ase Test Low 60% 30% Low Consensus 30% 60% Consensus 10% 10% The resulting change in the cumulative probability distribution for Railbelt employment in 2010 is shown in Figure III.9. The median value increased from 244 thousand to approximately 256 thousand. This is equivalent to an increase in the annual rate of growth from 1.5 to 1.7 percent over the projection period. III-13 RAILBELT HOUSEHOLDS (000) PROBABILITY OF FEWER THAN THIS AMOUNT Figure III. 8 THE EMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLD RELATIONSHIP YEAR 2010 PROJECTION VALUES 280 + ——_—_— my I | | | | {+ 4 af Ma + -- t Ee eA | |aje9 pnts 170 <= ‘on fhe 150 +-—— 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 RAILBELT EMPLOYMENT (000) Figure III.9 RAILBELT EMPLOYMENT: YEAR 2010 CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Teac 10% 1 —- TT 7 +— ox 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 EMPLOYMENT (000) —— OIL PRICE HIGHER + BASE CASE III- 14 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 IV. PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSEHOLDS A. Summary In this chapter, we discuss the projections which produce five different levels of Railbelt employment and households. These levels correspond to the 0 percent, 16.5 percent, 50 percent, 83.5 percent, and 100 percent points on the cumulative probability distribution for these variables. In the 50 percent case, we discuss three projections which, although containing very different "critical assumptions," produce almost identical values for Railbelt households and employment in 2010. Figures IV.1, IV.2, and IV.3 show the range of the projections for employment, population, and households. For each variable, two-thirds of the distribution lies between the "Low" and "High" cases, while one-sixth is between the "Lowest" and the "Low," and one-sixth is between the "Highest" and the "High." One-third of the distribution is centered around each of the following cases: "Low," "Middle," and "High." Tables IV.1 and IV.2 show the annual growth rates for employment, population, and households for the "Low," Middle," and High" cases. More detailed output for these projections is presented in Appendix B. B. "Middle" Case--50 Percent Chance of Faster Growth and 50 Percent Chance of ower Growth Railbelt employment (including military and the self-employed) which was 173 thousand in 1987 is expected to be 173 thousand in 1990, 200 thousand in 2000, and 244 thousand in 2010. This is an increase of 71 thousand jobs over the period and an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. Households increase by 63 thousand over the period, from 138 thousand to 201 thousand. This is an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent. Iv-1 G-AI Figure IV.1 WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT TOTAL RAILBELT AVERAGE ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT [000] 300 250 200 160 100 ! | ! | l ics | | | 1 1 1 | 1 | | 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 PROJECTION CASE neaens LOWEST ==" LOW —— MIDDLE HIGH HIGHEST ISER APA PROJECTIONS, JUNE 1988 €-AI Figure IV.2 POPULATION TOTAL RAILBELT POPULATION [000] 750 700 650 600 55077 500 450 400 350 B00 ee a ee ees 1985 1990 1995 2000 PROJECTION CAS a LOWEST =" LOW — MIDDLE [T] ISER APA PROJECTIONS, JUNE 1988 HIGH HIGHEST vAI Figure IV.3 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL RAILBELT HOUSEHOLDS [000] 300 250 200 150 100 L | 1 I | | iE I ih I 1 i \ | 1 1 | I 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 PROJECTION CASE mars LOWEST =e LOW NAD la Ee HIGH HIGHEST ISER APA PROJECTIONS, JUNE 1988 TABLE IV.1. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED GROWTH RATES FOR ALASKA AND THE RAILBELT (average annual rate) EMPLOYMENT POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS State 1960-1987 5.1> 3.2 6.1 1980-1985 6.1 5.2 i 1985-1987 -4..6 a3 4 1987-1995 LOW 9 4 6 MIDDLE 8 15 8 HIGH oy “9 eae 1995-2010 LOW 1.0 1.2 13 MIDDLE all 1.8 2.0 HIGH 2.0 2.2 2.4 1987-2010 LOW 9 9 ee MIDDLE 14 es) 1.6 HIGH 1.9 17 2.0 Railbelt 1960-1987 6.0 3.8 5.0 1980-1985 7.5 eal 1985-1987 258 ents - 1987-1995 LOW 9 Lh 6 MIDDLE 9 6 9 HIGH 1.6 9 1.2 1995-2010 Low ie 1.2 1.4 MIDDLE 1.8 1.9 Zk HIGH Zk 23 2.4 1987-2010 Low 1.0 9 ayaa MIDDLE 1.5 1.4 1.6 HIGH 2.0 1.8 2.0 4Historical rate is based on wage and salary employment ; projection rate is based on total employment. Pcrowth Rate is for the years 1961-1987. SOURCE: ISER MAP runs APA115, APA74, and APA10 and ISER MAP database. Iv-5 TABLE IV. 2. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED GROWTH RATES FOR REGIONS WITHIN THE RAILBELT (average annual rate) EMPLOYMENT? POPULATION? HOUSEHOLDS Anchorage Borough 1960-1987 Sa 3.9 Syl 1980-1985 Te2 6.2 - 1985-1987 -6.5 -1.0 - 1987-1995 LOW aT H2 4 MIDDLE a7, 4 My HIGH 15 8 1 1995-2010 Low sal a3) 1.4 MIDDLE 2.0 2.0 22 HIGH 2.3 2.4 2.6 1987-2010 LOW 9 9 lee MIDDLE 5 iLAG WA HIGH 2.0 1.9 2a Kena en ula Borough 1960-1987 7e30 5.6 6.3 1980-1985 7.8 O12 - 1985-1987 -4.4 me - 1987-1995 LOW 8 23 6 MIDDLE 8 oe) -8 HIGH 3 ae | 1995-2010 LOW 8 L.@ pr MIDDLE 5 16 PP HIGH hot 9, 2.0 1987-2010 LOW -8 8 1.0 MIDDLE Leo Le 1.4 HIGH La 1.4 1.6 4uistorical rate is based on wage and salary employment; projection rate is based on total employment. Palaska Department of Labor Population Estimates. “Growth rate from 1965 to 1987. SOURCE: ISER MAP runs APA115, APA74, and APA10O and ISER MAP database. IV-6 TABLE IV.2 (continued) EMPLOYMENT* POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS Matanuska-Susitna Borough 1960-1987 8.39 76 8.2 1980-1985 16.5 T5709 - 1985-1987 -5.6 -.4 - 1987-1995 LOW oo at z= MIDDLE 9 <a .8 HIGH a7: 1.0 ds 1995-2010 LOW 15 5: 1.6 MIDDLE Zeon 2.5 26 HIGH 28 2.4 2.9) 1987-2010 LOW 1:3 ee Lud MIDDLE Pail L.8 2:10) HIGH 2.4 2a: 233. Greater Fairbanks (Fairbanks North Star Borough plus Southeast Fairbanks Census Area) 1960-1987 GSI 2:3 3.5 1980-1985 6.6 S138 - 1985-1987 -4.0 4 - 1987-1995 LOW 1.6 71.0 L.4 MIDDLE 1.4 1.0 1.4 HIGH 220) ig laf 1995-2010 LOW a LAC) LZ 5.3 MIDDLE LG tS) 1.6 HIGH 1.8 159, aud 1987-2010 LOW ee Le 3 MIDDLE 14 eg 1.6 HIGH 9 Lr, 2.0 IV-7 Three different projections produce these employment and house- hold levels in 2010. The critical assumptions for each of these cases are presented and contrasted in Table IV.3. "Middle Case A" is characterized by a low oil price ($14-$20) with high production (consistent with that price), little growth in the other basic sectors of federal employment and tourism, a low rate of return on the Permanent Fund but growing national wage rates which contribute to support sector growth, and a lower labor force participation rate, which results in more population for any level of employment. "Middle Case B" is also characterized by a low oil price ($14-$20), but with lower production than "Middle Case A." The effect of lower production on the economy is counterbalanced by more rapid growth in federal employment and tourism. "Middle Case C" is characterized by a higher oil price ($18-$30) and production at the same level as "Middle Case Bay The higher oil price does result in the construction of a natural gas pipeline but only after the turn of the century. Federal employment grows as in "Middle Case B," while tourism growth is slow as in "Middle Case A." The absence of growth in the real wage rate for the United States results in slower growth of support activities, and a higher labor force participation rate reduces the ratio of population to employment. The rate of return on the Permanent Fund is higher than in the other cases. "Middle Case A" produces a reasonable growth trajectory, and it is chosen to be representative of the middle of the distribution of outcomes. In this projection, the price of oil rises from $14 in 1990 (1987 $) to $20 in 2010. Production from existing fields con- tinues, and technological advances combined with cost control allow the West Sak field on the North Slope to come into production after 2000. Production falls off from a peak of 723 million barrels in 1989 to 411 million in 2000 and 265 million in 2010. Frontier areas, including ANWR and the OCS, are not developed because sufficiently large discoveries are not made and the cost of development of small fields cannot be recovered due to the low price. In spite of the decline in production, however, total employment in the industry does not fall because of the increasingly labor-intensive nature of the process of extracting the maximum amount of oil out of currently producing fields. The federal government role as a basic industry remains constant with the exception of the deployment of the Light Infantry Division in Fairbanks. Tourism expansion continues at a rate of 20,000 additional tourist visitors annually. The mining industry grows in the late 1980s and 1990s at a rapid rate with the development of the Red Dog, Greens Creek, and U.S. Borax projects, a new coal facility for export in the Railbelt, and other unspecified activities projected to increase at 3 percent annually. Iv-8 TABLE IV.3. MIDDLE CASE PROJECTIONS: CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS CASE A CASE B CASE C Oil Price Low Low Consensus Low Oil Production High Low Low Federal Employment Low High High Tourism Growth Low High Low National Wage Rates High High Low Permanent Fund Return Low Low High Population/Employment* High High Low 4, high labor force participation rate makes this ratio smaller. SOURCE: Cases APA74, APA91, and APA105. The timber industry expands into the early 1990s, at which time further growth is constrained by the size of the resource base, except in Southcentral Alaska where a modest industry develops in the 1990s. The traditional commercial fishery is constrained by the size of the resource base, but the bottomfish industry expands over time, centered in the Southwestern part of the state, but with additional activity in the Southern Railbelt and Bristol Bay. Employment in agriculture grows 1 percent annually. State government gradually contracts through the 1990s in spite of revenue augmentation measures, including the use of Permanent Fund earnings beginning in 1992, the reimposition of the personal income tax in 1996, and the elimination of the Permanent Fund dividend in 1999. State petroleum revenues decline in real terms to $1241 million in 2000 and $842 million in 2010. The Permanent Fund real rate of return only averages 3 percent annually. Government expenditures are concentrated on the operating budget, leaving little for capital expenditures. In spite of wage levels held constant in nominal dollars for several years, government employment levels fall over time due to revenue constraints. Local government spending does not increase as state assistance falls in real terms. As with state personnel costs, there are efforts to stretch dollars by holding wage rates constant in nominal dollars. The support sectors of the economy continue to grow in response to population and income growth as well as in direct response to basic industry expansion. The contribution to aggregate demand from Iv-9 increasing per capita personal income (increasing purchasing power) is strong due to the fact that the average real wage rate in each sector of the economy resumes growing after a period of downward adjustment in the late 1980s, precipitated by the current recession. This adjustment brings Alaska cost of living adjusted wage rates close to parity with those in the rest of the U.S. economy. Real per capita personal income also grows as the proportion of total income from nonwage sources increases (dividends, interest, and rent) and as the labor force participation rate increases. The ratio of secondary to basic sector employment which increased rapidly in the past grows more slowly in the future. Most of the growth of the secondary sector is concentrated in the trade, service, and finance industries. Aggregate population growth follows growth in the number of jobs. Since natural increase adds more people to the potential labor force than the number of new jobs the economy is generating, net out- migration occurs into the early 1990s. In step with national demo- graphic trends, the labor force participation rate continues to increase (from 69 to 71 percent) and, at the same time, the average household size continues to decline. The unemployment rate, which has historically been above the national average, remains so but slowly trends downward toward parity with the rest of the United States. Population growth is influenced by several other factors. The proportion of nonresident workers in the work force declines over time with the changing composition of employment and the trend toward wage rate parity with the rest of the US. The population over 65 continues to grow rapidly due to the aging of the Native population and the presence of economic incentives for the over-65 population to remain in the state. In contrast, the proportion of the population below the age of entry into the labor force falls slightly. The net result of these factors is that the average number of workers per household remains fairly constant over the projection period. The Native proportion of the population increases from 14 percent to 17 percent. It is more difficult to project employment and households at the level of the Railbelt or Census Area than for the state as a whole because of the added uncertainty contributed by the potential for variation in the location of a particular economic activity and in the residence of population. A Navy cruiser could be "homeported" in a number of different locations in Alaska, only some of which are in the Railbelt. The number of households in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is dependent upon the relative price of housing there compared to Anchorage. With the exception of the "homeporting" of a Naval Cruiser and changes in the pattern of Native settlement between the Railbelt and rural Alaska, however, it appears that there is more potential variation within the Railbelt than between the Railbelt and the rest of the state. The economic functions of the Railbelt are distinct from the rest of the state, and it forms a natural market which is growing increasingly integrated over time. However, because the Railbelt contains about 70 percent of the state's population and jobs, its growth must closely follow that of the state. Iv-10 In this representative case, the Railbelt economy continues to be the support center for the majority of the state, and its economy grows in response to basic sector growth which occurs largely outside the boundaries of the Railbelt. C. "High" Case--One Chance in Six of Faster Growth The representative "High" Case results in 17 thousand more house- holds in the Railbelt in 2010 and 26 thousand more jobs than the "Middle" case. This "High" case differs from the "Middle Case A" by having a higher oil price and production level, federal government growth, but slower support sector growth and higher labor force participation (see Table IV.4). The price of oil rises from $18 in 1980 (1987 $) to $30 in 2010. As a result of this, large discoveries and low production costs, development of the West Sak reservoir occurs in the 1990s and development of significant discoveries in ANWR or the OCS take place, with production beginning in 2000. Total oil production peaks at 723 million barrels annually in 1989 in this case, as in the middle case, but the decline in production over time is much more attenuated. Production is 601 million barrels in 1995, 594 million in 2000, and 465 million in 2010. Both petroleum employ- ment and state petroleum revenues are considerably higher than in the "Middle" case. TABLE IV.4. COMPARISON OF "LOW," "MIDDLE," AND "HIGH" CASE: CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS LOW MIDDLE CASE A HIGH Oil Price Low Low Consensus Low Oil Production Low High High Federal Employment High Low High Tourism Growth High Low Low National Wage Rates Low High Low Permanent Fund Return High Low Low Population/Employment* Low High Low 4, high labor force participation rate makes this ratio smaller. SOURCE: Cases APA115, APA74, and APA10. Iv-11 The higher level of petroleum revenues in the 1990s and beyond allows state government to expand its workforce marginally over time in response to the demands imposed by population increase while at the same time postponing until 2000 the time when the earnings of the Permanent Fund are required to fund a portion of state General Fund Expenditures. The personal income tax is not reimposed until 2004 and the Permanent Fund Dividend is not eliminated. In this case the Fund earns a real rate of return of 3 percent. In this case, the growth in the number of tourists is 20,000 each year, and the national wage rate is constant in real dollars. As a consequence, real per capita income and purchasing power growth is slower, which impacts the growth of the trade, service, and finance sectors of the economy. Finally, the labor force participation rate increases to 73 percent, and this reduces the population associated with each level of employment. D. "Highest" Case--Zero Chance of Faster Growth The "Highest" case includes the higher scenario for each of the "critical assumptions." This is the case, of all the projections, which results in the greatest number of households and employment in 2010, given the assumed range of values for each of the critical assumptions. Railbelt households in 2010 are 263 thousand, 62 thousand above the "Middle" case, while Railbelt employment is 326 thousand, 82 thousand above the "Middle" case. The "critical assumptions" are as follows: (1) The price of oil rises from $20 (1987 $) in 1990 to $40 in 2010. (2) Development of West Sak reservoir occurs in the 1990s, ANWR production begins in 2000, and the construction of the TAGS gas pipeline begins in 1993. Production of oil peaks in 1989 at 723 million barrels annually and gradually falls to 594 million in 2000 and 465 million in 2010. State petroleum revenues average approximately $3 billion (1987 $) through the projection period due to the high price of oil. This eliminates the need to use the earnings of the Permanent Fund to finance state government and the need to reimpose the personal income tax. Sufficient funds are also available to provide for an expanded capital construction budget. (3) Federal military personnel increase at 1 percent annually in addition to deployment of the Light Infantry Division and the "“homeporting" of a Navy cruiser in Anchorage. Federal civilian employment grows at .5 percent annually. IV-12 (4) The number of tourists visiting the state increases 40,000 annually. (5) The real average wage rate increases 1 percent annually. (6) The real return on the Permanent Fund is 4 percent annually. (7) The labor force participation rate increases from 69 percent to 71 percent, which is much slower than in the "Middle" case and, as a consequence, the ratio of population to employment is high and the average number of employees per household is low. E. "Low" Case--One Chance in Six of Slower Growth Railbelt households in 2010 are 23 thousand below the "Middle" case in this representative "Low" case, and employment is 26 thousand below the "Middle" case. This case differs from "Middle Case A" in that oil production is lower, federal and tourism employment growth is faster, national wage rates are assumed constant in real terms, the rate of return on the Permanent Fund is higher, and the labor force participation rate increases faster. Consequently, personal income and purchasing power grow more slowly, resulting in a smaller support sector. The high labor force participation rate means that a smaller population is consistent with each employment level. F. "Lowest" Case--Zero C ce of Slower Growth The "Lowest" case includes the lower scenarios for each of the critical assumptions. This is the case, of all the projections, which results in the smallest number of households and the least employment in 2010, given the assumed range of values for each of the critical assumptions. In this case, Railbelt households are 158 thousand in 2010 and Railbelt employment 189 thousand. The "critical assumptions" in this case are as follows: (1) The price of oil rises from $14 (1987 $) in 1990 to $20 in 2010. (2) No development of new fields on the North Slope occurs because of the low oil price and the TAGS gas pipeline is not built. Production of oil peaks in 1989 at 723 million barrels annually and falls to 339 million in 2000 and 94 million in 2010. State petroleum revenues decline in real terms starting with the current fiscal year, reaching $1.61 billion (1987 $) in Iv-13 (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 1990, $982 million in 2000, and $395 million in 2010 due to the low price of oil and declining production. The use of the earnings of the Permanent Fund to finance state government begin in 1992, the personal income tax is reimposed in 1994, and the Permanent Fund Dividend program is terminated in 1996. Government expenditures are concentrated on the operating budget leaving little for capital expenditures. In spite of wage levels held constant in nominal dollars for several years, government employment levels fall over time due to the revenue squeeze. Federal military personnel remain at current levels with the exception of the deployment of the Light Infantry Division. Federal civilian employment remains at current levels. The number of tourists visiting the state increases 20,000 annually. The real average wage rate remains at the current level. Average household purchasing power changes very little during the projection period. The real return on the Permanent Fund is 3 percent annually. The labor force participation rate increases from 69 percent to 73 percent and, as a consequence, the ratio of population to employment is relatively low and the average number of employees per household is relatively high. Iv-14 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 V. COMPARISON OF CURRENT PROJECTIONS TO PRIOR ANALYSES ISER has provided to the APA, since its inception, employment and population projections for the state and the Railbelt. These projections have appeared in published reports or were prepared in preparation for Susitna License Hearings before FERC. More recently, ISER has also assisted the Railbelt utilities directly in projecting population and employment in their service areas. A comparison of some of these projections is useful for putting the current study into historical perspective. This is the case, even though they are not directly comparable, for two reasons. First, the determination of the price of oil and petroleum revenues has sometimes been chosen by ISER and at other times dictated by the APA or other clients. Second, the current study identifies a "Middle Case" through the use of probability analysis while all previous studies have simply been based on the construction of a most likely scenario. The cases chosen for comparison are the "most likely cases" from the following studies: 1980 Electric Power Consumption for the Railbelt: A Projection of Requirements 1981 Alaska Economic Projections for Estimating Elec- tricity Requirement for the Railbelt 1983 Susitna Hydroelectric Project FERC Application for License, Volume 2B 1985 "Revised Base Case for Susitna Hydroelectric Project FERC Application for License" 1987 Economic and Demographic Projections for Southern Railbelt Electric Utilities Not only has the economy experienced tremendous change over the eight years during which these projections have been made, but expectations about future growth prospects for the economy have changed as well. Employment and population projections done at different times have reflected this change. This is clearly seen in Figure V.1, which is a comparison of the projections of petroleum revenues (in real 1985 $) for these five previous studies with the range of petroleum revenues which are projected to produce the "Middle Case" presented in this report. The projected value of petroleum revenues for 1990 has ranged from a low of under $2 billion [1987] to a high of nearly $8 billion [1981]. Both of these projections were based upon oil price and production forecasts of the Alaska Department of Revenue--but six years apart. V-1 Figure V.1 PETROLEUM REVENUES PROJECTION COMPARISON REAL 1985 $ [BILLION] $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $9 FO eect $2 “ Le Zs | $0 LP LLL LE LLL Litt 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR OF PROJECTION 1980 “- 1981 = = 9 -"8" 1983 0 wre 1985 — 1987 ZA 1988 Range —— Actual ISER, JUNE 1988 V-2 This dramatic range is primarily a reflection of the high oil price expectations of the early 1980s that were adjusted downward with the passage of time. The 1988 "Middle Case" range of petroleum revenues covers the projections made both in 1985 and 1987. The lower oil price forecasts in this study are somewhat offset in the calculation of petroleum revenues by higher petroleum production projections. The earlier studies relied exclusively on the Alaska Department of Revenue (DOR) for production scenarios, if not oil prices themselves. Not only are production levels somewhat higher than previously fore- cast by the DOR but this study also assumes production from new fields that are not included in the DOR analysis, which is restricted to currently identified fields. Variations in projected employment shown in Figure V.2 have been much less dramatic than those of petroleum revenues because of the importance of the nonpetroleum components of the basic sector of the economy and the relative stability of those other sectors. The earliest projections done in 1980 and 1981 have a strong underlying long-term trend which makes those projections the highest by 2000 when they end. These high underlying growth rates were the combined result of assuming the expenditure of a large portion of the huge petroleum revenues collected by the state during this time and continued strong growth of the support sectors of the economy. Both of these early projections contain an economic "slowdown" in the mid- 1980s, but neither anticipated the magnitude of the current recession because petroleum revenues kept rising in those projections. Neither of the early projections captured the magnitude of the boom in the early 1980s either, both because the size of the phenomenon was without precedent and because the projection methodology is not designed to replicate the business cycle. In 1983 and 1985, the long-term employment projections were adjusted downward, and since the projections were beginning from a higher base--in the middle of the boom--the growth rates for employment were significantly reduced. These adjustments were primarily due to the reduction in projected petroleum revenues and modifications in the relationship between the basic and support sectors and less due to adjustments in the assumptions regarding the prospects for the basic industries of the state. The employment projections of 1987 and 1988 are surprisingly close to one another, particularly in light of the different methodologies used. This similarity is an indication of the robustness of the results. Following the high growth rates for employment, the projections of population done in 1980 and 1981 reflect rapid growth trends which by 2000 exceed all the others (Figure V.3) Although these projec- tions anticipated the petrodollar boom of the early 1980s, they did, as with employment, underestimate it. The next pair of projections done in 1983 and 1985 began from much higher bases and trended upward more slowly. v-3 Figure V.2 ALASKA EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION COMPARISON WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT [000] 350 HISTORICAL ef 250 Se 150 PROJECTION | 50 et hei heal aad at pag Lee eal ates 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR OF PROJECTION 1980 oF TST. (1 en 1983 0 re 1985 — 1987 — 1988 —— actual ISER, JUNE 1988 Figure V.3 ALASKA POPULATION PROJECTION COMPARISON ALASKA POPULATION [000] 800 HISTORICAL 600 400 | PROJECTION [—| 200 TsalhciclbsscDicdhlbasclhceM candid icslacaadsal all culbecd scaled alse diMcedc sical ilbasligidsadasilacaiMaasiiaccthcalbaatleil sadesbiailailaaRcaliaRucMasil 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR OF PROJECTION 1980 m= 19810 rte 1988 0 wre 1985 — 1987 — 1988 — actual ISER, JUNE 1988 v-4 Comparison of _ this study with the most recent previous projection shows an upward adjustment of the population estimate relative to that of employment. This reflects the fact that the relationship between employment and population in the state continues to evolve and, as a consequence, projection of the population involves additional uncertainty. The important parameters defining this relationship--the labor force participation rate, the unemployment rate, the proportion of nonresident workers, and the proportion of the population under 16 years and over 65--are not measured accurately and have apparently exhibited considerable fluctuation in recent years. As new information becomes available, the projected relation between employment and population (and households) is likely to continue to evolve. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 APPENDIX A SELECTED STATEWIDE SUMMARY OUTPUT FROM THE MIDDLE CASE PROJECTIONS MIDDLE CASEA...A MIDDLE CASEB...A MIDDLE CASE C . A a8 our Table A.1 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MAY 1988 MIDDLE A TABLE 1. SUMMARY WAGE AND PERSONAL PETROLEUM POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL SALARY INCOME REVENUES (000) (000) EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (MILLION (MILLION (000) (000) 1987 $) 1987 $) 1987 537.857 183.784 252.502 207.397 9167.670 1467.300 1988 533.197 182.788 251.021 205.211 8630.352 1905.898 1989 531.333 182.640 250.609 203.609 8723.816 1857.883 1990 530.121 182.935 250.753 203.701 8836.145 1609.907 1991 531.936 184.202 253.738 206.224 8996.770 1689.699 1992 536.144 186.266 257. 567 209.506 9215.310 1631.022 1993 542.811 189.193 262.200 213.723 9520.490 1521.316 1994 550.995 192.624 266.776 217.885 9807.230 1529.190 1995 558.912 195.948 269.686 220.513 10049.080 1461.207 1996 566.456 199.129 272.583 223.128 10290.090 1338.575 1997 573.105 201.985 274.863 225.174 10381.650 1343.657 1998 581.310 205.355 279.078 228.993 10672.200 1333.079 1999 591.404 209.356 284.490 233.905 10681.250 1293.972 2000 601.939 213.500 289.054 238.036 10987.590 1240.543 2001 612.376 217.604 293.523 242.086 11305.900 1146.470 2002 622.570 221.619 297.929 246.076 11617.070 1060.547 2003 632.160 225.422 301.793 249.569 11912.620 969.146 2004 643.695 229.880 308.119 255.344 12304.300 967.752 2005 656.243 234.680 314.039 260.744 12678.900 955.305 2006 669.844 239.842 320.547 266.679 13079.830 949.484 2007 685.056 245.555 328.139 273.598 13524.430 1013.705 2008 700.242 251.271 334.666 279.541 13940.600 951.392 2009 715.188 256.916 341.327 285.599 14369.430 894.385 2010 729.379 262.315 346.658 290.444 14760.820 841.531 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA74, CREATED MAY 1988. POPULATION (POP) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. HOUSEHOLDS (HH) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99) INCLUDES ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY AND PROPRIETORS-- PRE 1985 PROPRIETOR DEFINITION. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (EM97) IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. PERSONAL INCOME (DF.PIB) IS US BEA DEFINITION. PETROLEUM REVENUES (DF.RP9S) INCLUDES PERMANENT FUND CONTRIBUTION. A-1 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MAY 1988 MIDDLE A TABLE 2. EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (THOUSANDS ) INFRA- TOTAL BASIC STRUCTURE SERVICES GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 1987 252.502 81.813 32.890 90.974 46.825 1988 251.021 83.154 29.795 92.034 46.038 1989 250.609 85.098 29.379 90.497 45.635 1990 250.753 85.635 31.337 90.281 43.500 1991 253.738 87.020 31.285 91.095 44.337 1992 257.567 88.356 31.836 92.781 44.594 1993 262.200 89.949 33.178 95.461 43.611 1994 266.776 90.166 34.291 98 .388 43.931 1995 269.686 90.401 34.614 101.074 43.597 1996 272.583 90.956 34.271 102.715 44.641 1997 274.863 90.931 34,170 104.178 45.585 1998 279.078 91.668 34.761 106.544 46.106 1999 284.490 92.060 35.268 108.478 48.684 2000 289.054 92.567 36.246 110.913 49.328 2001 293.523 93.543 37.317 113.810 48.852 2002 297.929 94.502 37.848 116.839 48.741 2003 301.793 95.473 37.926 119.717 48.678 2004 308.119 96.356 38.463 123.425 49.875 2005 314.039 96.733 39.330 127.298 50.679 2006 320.547 97.102 40.253 131.378 51.814 2007 328.139 97.474 41.260 135.871 53.534 2008 334.666 97 .860 42.415 140.366 54.026 2009 341.327 98.239 43.620 144.851 54.618 2010 346.658 98.620 44.794 149.073 54.170 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA74, CREATED MAY 1988. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99) . BASIC EMPLOYMENT (EMSBASE) CONSISTS OF EXOGENOUS COMPONENTS OF CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, AND TRANSPORTATION; MINING (PETROLEUM) ; TOURISM, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AND AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISH HARVESTING. : INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT (EMSINFR) CONSISTS OF TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES, ENDOGENOUS CONSTRUCTION, AND BUSINESS SERVICES, NET OF EXOGENOUS AND TOURISM-RELATED TRANSPORTATION. SUPPORT EMPLOYMENT (EMQSUPRT) CONSISTS OF TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICES, LOCAL MANUFACTURING, AND PROPRIETORS NOT ENGAGED IN FISH HARVESTING, NET OF TRADE AND SERVICE TOURISM EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS SERVICES. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (EMGA) CONSISTS OF STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT. A-2 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MAY 1988 MIDDLE A TABLE 3. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS ) TRANS- AGRI- PORTATION, TOTAL CULTURE , CONSTRUC- MANU- COMMUNI - PRIVATE FORESTRY, MINING TION FACTURING CATIONS, SUPPORT FISHERIES PUBLIC UTILITIES 1987 163.899 10.204 8.255 10.540 13.111 18.239 103.550 1988 162.405 10.234 8.472 8.368 13.245 17.668 104.418 1989 161.157 10.264 8.723 8.305 13.501 17.650 102.715 1990 163.435 10.314 8.873 10.261 13.790 17.769 102.428 1991 165.333 10.348 9.352 10.315 14.058 17.966 103.294 1992 168.705 10.403 9.817 10.894 14.155 18.261 105.175 1993 174.321 10.458 10.340 12.415 14.268 18.654 108.186 1994 178.577 10.514 10.685 12.449 14.368 19.060 111.502 1995 181.820 10.570 11.308 11.463 14.461 19.405 114.614 1996 183.674 10.628 11.528 10.724 14.516 19.566 116.712 1997 185.011 10.686 11.647 9.760 14.583 19.727 118.607 1998 188.704 10.747 11.818 10.095 14.691 20.051 121.302 1999 191.538 10.811 12.055 10.031 14.765 20.248 123.629 2000 195.458 10.874 12.209 10.537 14.880 20.577 126.382 2001 200.402 10.928 12.599 11.320 14,984 20.970 129.601 2002 204.920 10.982 12.973 11.526 15.087 21.365 132.988 2003 208.848 11.035 13.359 11.305 15.188 21.743 136.217 2004 213.976 11.049 13.759 11.399 15.245 22.203 140.322 2005 219.093 11.063 13.902 11.520 15.297 22.666 144.645 2006 224.465 11.073 14.048 11.659 15.348 23.145 149.192 2007 230.337 11.083 14.198 11.817 15.406 23.664 154.169 2008 236.372 11.093 14.361 12.093 15.459 24.176 159.191 2009 242.441 11.104 14.518 12.430 15.514 24.686 164.190 2010 248.220 11.114 14.679 12.766 15.563 25.169 168.929 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA74, CREATED MAY 1988. PRIVATE (EMPVT) IS ALL NON-GOVERNMENT . AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHERIES (EMAFF). MINING (EMP9) IS TOTAL MINING, INCLUDING OIL AND GAS. CONSTRUCTION (EMCN) . MANUFACTURING (EMM9) . TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES (EMTCU). SUPPORT (EMSUP) INCLUDES TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICE, AND PROPRIETORS NOT INVOLVED IN FISH HARVESTING. 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS TOTAL 97.802 98.294 98.886 98.438 MAY 1988 MIDDLE A TABLE 4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS ) FEDERAL MILITARY CIVILIAN 23.737 18.041 24.537 18.041 25.737 18.081 25.737 18.081 25.937 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 26.137 18.131 STATE 17.860 17.506 LOCAL SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA74, CREATED MAY TOTAL (EMG9) . MILITARY (EMGM) IS ACTIVE DUTY. FEDERAL CIVILIAN (EMGC) . STATE (EMGS) INCLUDES UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA. LOCAL (EMGL). A-4 .137 .508 898 .857 .606 655 .984 .804 .757 665 1988. Table A.z ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MAY 1988 MIDDLE B TABLE 1. SUMMARY WAGE AND PERSONAL PETROLEUM POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL SALARY INCOME REVENUES (000) (000) EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (MILLION (MILLION (000) (000) 1987 $) 1987 $) 1987 537.857 183 .784 252.502 207.397 9167.670 1467.300 1988 533.581 182.873 251.418 205.349 8640.055 1905.966 1989 532.470 182.936 251.647 204.108 8745.156 1857.950 1990 532.537 183 .623 252.725 204.828 8905.836 1619.975 1991 535.810 185.241 256.495 207.340 9081.750 1700.522 1992 541.786 187.762 260.975 210.481 9301.200 1612.808 1993 549.801 191.105 265.681 214.525 9592.940 1476.032 1994 560.141 195.231 271.594 219.672 9919.140 1481.021 1995 568.996 198 .836 274.059 221.646 10014.360 1361.934 1996 575.510 201.623 275.397 222.581 10194.280 1146.158 1997 584.159 205.119 280.474 226.944 10175.490 1191.096 1998 592.752 208.580 283.901 229.786 10426.290 1132.322 1999 600.976 211.900 287.225 232.528 10678.410 1068.816 2000 610.416 215.621 291.935 236.534 10973.560 1004.801 2001 620.635 219.596 296.655 240.554 11276.330 929.693 2002 631.887 223.915 302.056 245.192 11608.410 859.589 2003 643.248 228.267 306.906 249.318 11922.570 779.106 2004 654.747 232.661 311.963 253.665 12249.010 707.047 2005 666.566 237.160 317.230 258.198 12589.160 639.793 2006 679.118 241.906 323.095 263.272 12957.050 584.080 2007 691.553 246.614 328.380 267.812 13310.460 530.203 2008 703.448 251.138 333.285 272.000 13657.250 484.512 2009 714.977 255.538 338.155 276.149 14007.980 441.671 2010 727.350 = 260.221 343.605 280.822 14388.000 406.646 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APAS1, CREATED MAY 1988. POPULATION (POP) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. HOUSEHOLDS (HH) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99) INCLUDES ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY AND PROPRIETORS-- PRE 1985 PROPRIETOR DEFINITION. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (EM97) IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. PERSONAL INCOME (DF.PIB) IS US BEA DEFINITION. PETROLEUM REVENUES (DF.RP9S) INCLUDES PERMANENT FUND CONTRIBUTION. A-5 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MAY 1988 MIDDLE B TABLE 2. EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (THOUSANDS ) INFRA- TOTAL BASIC STRUCTURE SERVICES GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 1987 252.502 81.813 32.890 90.974 46.825 1988 251.418 83.471 29.803 92.106 46.039 1989 251.647 85.892 29.406 90.707 45.642 1990 252.725 86.904 31.453 90.827 43.540 1991 256.495 88.762 31.435 91.846 44.452 1992 260.975 90.818 32.018 93.674 44.466 1993 265.681 92.630 33.342 96.392 43.317 1994 271.594 93.313 34,208 98.714 45.360 1995 274.059 94.012 34.457 100.571 45.018 1996 275.397 95.031 34.518 102.416 43.432 1997 280.474 95.968 34.204 103.913 46.389 1998 283.901 97.165 34.464 105.816 46.456 1999 287.225 98.017 34.941 107.968 46.300 2000 291.935 98 .982 35.506 110.544 46.902 2001 296.655 99.915 36.398 113.342 46.999 2002 302.056 100.830 37.474 116.645 47.107 2003 306.906 101.757 38.105 119.964 47.080 2004 311.963 102.595 38.483 123.345 47.541 2005 317.230 103.425 39.076 126.827 47.903 2006 323.095 104.248 39.894 130.528 48.425 2007 328.380 105.073 40.718 134.217 48.372 2008 333.285 105.910 41.534 137.839 48.003 2009 338.155 106.740 42.352 141.444 47.619 2010 343.605 107.573 43.454 145.224 47.355 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APAQ1, CREATED MAY 1988. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99) . BASIC EMPLOYMENT (EMSBASE) CONSISTS OF EXOGENOUS COMPONENTS OF CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, AND TRANSPORTATION; MINING (PETROLEUM) ; TOURISM, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AND AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISH HARVESTING. INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT (EMSINFR) CONSISTS OF TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES, ENDOGENOUS CONSTRUCTION, AND BUSINESS SERVICES, NET OF EXOGENOUS AND TOURISM-RELATED TRANSPORTATION. SUPPORT EMPLOYMENT (EMOSUPRT) CONSISTS OF TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICES, LOCAL MANUFACTURING, AND PROPRIETORS NOT ENGAGED IN FISH HARVESTING, NET OF TRADE AND SERVICE TOURISM EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS SERVICES. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (EMGA) CONSISTS OF STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT . A-6 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL PRIVATE ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS AGRI- CULTURE , FORESTRY, FISHERIES MAY 1988 MIDDLE B TABLE 3. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT MANU- FACTURING TRANS- PORTATION, COMMUNI - CATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES SUPPORT 204.636 209.152 213.386 217.925 222.898 227.864 232.762 237.636 242.968 ( THOUSANDS ) CONSTRUC- MINING TION 8.255 10.540 8.472 8.368 8.635 8.305 8.695 10.296 9.083 9.847 9.204 10.427 9.382 11.912 9.630 11.823 10.154 10.886 10.273 10.497 10.288 9.907 10.354 10.011 10.484 9.889 10.529 9.984 10.557 10.362 10.567 10.799 10.587 10.771 10.618 10.481 10.641 10.394 10.664 10.502 10.688 10.605 10.723 10.706 10.749 10.817 10.776 11.194 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APAS1, CREATED MAY PRIVATE (EMPVT) IS ALL NON-GOVERNMENT . AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHERIES (EMAFF). MINING (EMP9) IS TOTAL MINING, INCLUDING OIL AND GAS. CONSTRUCTION (EMCN). MANUFACTURING (EMMS) . TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES (EMTCU). SUPPORT (EMSUP) INCLUDES TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICE, AND PROPRIETORS NOT INVOLVED IN FISH HARVESTING. 1988. 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS TOTAL oo 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. MAY 1988 MIDDLE B TABLE 4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS ) FEDERAL MILITARY CIVILIAN 23.737 18.041 24.764 18.130 26.194 18.260 26.426 18.350 27 .360 18.490 28.297 18.581 28/536 18.673 28.777 18.764 29.021 18.857 29.267 18.950 29.516 19.043 29.767 19.137 30.021 19.231 30.277 19.325 30.536 19.420 30.797 19.516 31.061 19.612 31.327 19.709 31.597 19.806 31.869 19.903 32.143 20.001 32.421 20.100 32.701 20.199 32.984 20.298 STATE 18.191 15.942 15.673 15.403 15.180 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA91, CREATED MAY TOTAL (EMG9) . MILITARY (EMGM) IS ACTIVE DUTY. FEDERAL CIVILIAN (EMGC) . STATE (EMGS) INCLUDES UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA. LOCAL (EMGL). A-8 Table A.3 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MAY 1988 MIDDLE C TABLE 1. SUMMARY WAGE AND PERSONAL PETROLEUM POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL SALARY INCOME REVENUES (000) (000) EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (MILLION (MILLION (000) (000) 1987 $) 1987 $) 1987 537.857 183.784 252.502 207.397 9167.640 1467.300 1988 534.443 183.171 251.729 205.635 8658.082 1906.048 1989 537.195 184.566 255.983 208.100 8847.617 2176.342 1990 538.548 185.708 258.034 209.716 9047.420 2255.735 1991 543.772 188.011 263.953 214.200 9237.090 2331.029 1992 549.383 190.425 269.002 217.860 9429.710 2255.778 1993 555.830 193.248 273.887 222.064 9671.450 2140.895 1994 561.199 195.681 276.700 224.359 9832.450 2151.631 1995 564.739 197.464 277.058 224.399 9926.240 2045.645 1996 568.477 199.287 277.748 224.739 10027.560 1884.880 1997 576.130 202.423 282.667 228.954 10265.020 1957.691 1998 583.549 205.462 286.346 232.028 10456.340 1933.541 1999 591.084 208.524 289. 668 234.766 10638.270 1878.100 2000 599.873 211.997 293.960 238.389 10857.630 1797.359 2001 609.745 215.826 298.903 242.612 10944.230 1618.738 2002 619.441 219.587 303.071 246.120 11156.930 1512.106 2003 629.303 223.395 307.166 249.557 11352.120 = 1393.135 2004 642.066 228.181 314.233 255.738 11648.160 1422.230 2005 658.801 234.317 324.624 264.941 12011.020 1431.466 2006 676.456 240.780 334.728 273.872 12370.920 1449.679 2007 691.962 246.528 341.359 279.629 12659.720 1580.854 2008 701.537 250.274 341.292 279.288 12789.370 1647.458 2009 715.858 255.615 347.217 284.392 13068.520 1564.449 2010 729.159 260.619 351.873 288.337 13294.910 1486.756 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA105, CREATED MAY 1988. POPULATION (POP) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. HOUSEHOLDS (HH) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99) INCLUDES ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY AND PROPRIETORS-- PRE 1985 PROPRIETOR DEFINITION. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (EM97) IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. PERSONAL INCOME (DF.PIB) IS US BEA DEFINITION. PETROLEUM REVENUES (DF.RP9S) INCLUDES PERMANENT FUND CONTRIBUTION. A-9 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MAY 1988 MIDDLE C TABLE 2. EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (THOUSANDS ) INFRA- TOTAL BASIC STRUCTURE SERVICES GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 1987 252.502 81.813 32.890 90.974 46.825 1988 251.729 83.471 29.816 92.202 46.240 1989 255.983 85.646 29.506 91,552 49.280 1990 258.034 86.415 31.966 92.263 47.389 1991 263.953 88 .534 32.681 93.738 49.000 1992 269.002 90.603 34.280 95.655 48.464 1993 273.887 92.432 35.735 98.104 47.617 1994 276.700 92.885 35.653 100.151 48.011 1995 277.058 93.356 34.727 101.444 47.531 1996 277.748 94.150 34.481 102.537 46.581 1997 282.667 94.363 34.820 104.458 49.026 1998 286.346 95.340 35.307 106.538 49.163 1999 289.668 95.972 35.813 108.491 49.392 2000 293.960 96.721 36.158 109.746 §1.335 2001 298.903 98.314 36.980 111.347 52.261 2002 303.071 99.516 38.187 113.439 51.930 2003 307.166 101.376 38.447 115.746 51.598 2004 314.233 102.818 38.181 118.645 54.589 2005 324.624 107.318 38.767 122.898 55.641 2006 334.728 110.174 39.771 127.512 57.271 2007 341.359 109 .643 40.529 130.982 60.204 2008 341.292 105.104 41.102 132.160 62.926 2009 347.217 105.231 42.434 134.352 65.200 2010 351.873 105.862 44.097 137.009 64.905 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA105, CREATED MAY 1988. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99) . BASIC EMPLOYMENT (EMSBASE) CONSISTS OF EXOGENOUS COMPONENTS OF CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, AND TRANSPORTATION; MINING (PETROLEUM) ; TOURISM, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AND AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISH HARVESTING. INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT (EMSINFR) CONSISTS OF TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES, ENDOGENOUS CONSTRUCTION, AND BUSINESS SERVICES, NET OF EXOGENOUS AND TOURISM-RELATED TRANSPORTATION SUPPORT EMPLOYMENT (EM9SUPRT) CONSISTS OF TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICES, LOCAL MANUFACTURING, AND PROPRIETORS NOT ENGAGED IN FISH HARVESTING, NET OF TRADE AND SERVICE TOURISM EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS SERVICES. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (EMGA) CONSISTS OF STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT. A-10 AGRI ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS TOTAL CULTURE , PRIVATE FORESTRY, FISHERIES MAY 1988 MIDDLE C TABLE 3. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS ) TRANS- PORTATION, CONSTRUC- MANU- COMMUNI - MINING TION FACTURING CATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES SUPPORT 1987 163.899 10. 1988 162.594 10. 1989 162.250 10. 1990 165.869 10. 1991 169.102 10. 1992 173.660 10. 1993 179.062 10. 1994 181.147 10. 1995 181.649 10. 1996 182.951 10. 1997 185.082 10. 1998 188.280 10. 1999 191.025 10. 2000 193.023 10. 2001 196.686 10. 2002 200.829 10. 2003 204.895 Liv 2004 208.608 iy 2005 217.580 ll. 2006 225.686 it? 2007 229.010 ll. 2008 225.845 ll. 2009 229.117 ale 2010 233.685 ll 514 570 628 686 747 811 874 928 982 035 049 063 073 083 093 104 114 12.188 18.298 15.271 23.273 12.223 13.117 15.292 23.547 12.249 13.556 15.319 23.807 12.276 14.705 15.341 24.117 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA105, CREATED MAY 1988. PRIVATE (EMPVT) IS ALL NON-GOVERNMENT . AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHERIES (EMAFF). MINING (EMP9) IS TOTAL MINING, INCLUDING OIL AND GAS. - CONSTRUCTION (EMCN). MANUFACTURING (EMM9) TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES (EMTCU). SUPPORT (EMSUP) INCLUDES TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICE, AND PROPRIETORS NOT INVOLVED IN FISH HARVESTING. A-11 103.550 104.581 103.769 104.473 106.049 108.231 111.043 113.479 115.130 116.535 118.734 121.155 123.444 125.074 127.058 129.485 132.115 135.320 139.894 144.943 148.897 150.573 153.083 156.133 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ISER MAP MODEL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS TOTAL 98. 100. 102. 102. 102. 105. 107. 109. 112. 115. 118. 118. 937 217 243 271 625 044 043 349 447 100 188 MAY 1988 MIDDLE C TABLE 4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS ) FEDERAL MILITARY CIVILIAN 23.737 18.041 24.764 18.130 26.194 18.260 26.426 18.350 27.360 18.490 28.297 18.581 28.536 18.673 28.777 18.764 29.021 18.857 29.267 18.950 29.516 19.043 29.767 19.137 30.021 19.231 30.277 19.325 30.536 19.420 30.797 19.516 31.061 19.612 31.327 19.709 31597 19.806 31.869 19.903 32.143 20.001 32.421 20.100 32.701 20.199 32.984 20.298 STATE LOCAL 18.825 28.000 19.315 26.925 22.016 27.263 21.406 25.983 22.162 26.838 21.552 26.913 20.599 27.018 20.445 27.567 19.623 27.908 18.613 27.967 20.052 28.974 19.891 29.272 19.482 29.910 20.293 31.042 20.834 31.427 20.136 31.793 19.293 32.305 20.638 33.951 20.737 34.904 21.023 36.248 21.865 38.339 22.544 40.382 23.057 42.143 22.460 42.445 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION APA1OS, TOTAL (EMG9). MILITARY (EMGM) IS ACTIVE DUTY. FEDERAL CIVILIAN (EMGC). CREATED MAY 1988. STATE (EMGS) INCLUDES UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA. LOCAL (EMGL). A-12 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 APPENDIX B DETAILED RAILBELT PROJECTIONS MIDDLE CASES MIDDLE CASEA.. . B-l MIDDLE CASEB.. . B-5 MIDDLE CASE C . B-9 MIGN CASE... . « «.« B-i3 TOW-GASE) som. gst) 6 BELT HIGHEST CASE... . . B-21 LOWEST CASE .... . B-25 Table B.1 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE A CASE POPULATION (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 231.288 39.633 37.296 79.814 388.030 537.857 1938 227 .383 39.763 36.601 80.656 384.402 533.197 1939 224.517 39.809 36.056 82.602 382.984 531.332 1930 225.802 39.658 36.274 82.215 383.948 530.121 1931 225.718 39.190 36.376 82.187 383.469 531.937 1932 225.904 40.244 36.689 84.130 386.967 536.143 1933 229.320 40.541 37.219 84.539 391.618 542.812 1934 233.968 40.780 38.185 85.672 398.605 550.995 1935 238.434 41.327 38.932 86.756 405.448 558.912 1936 241.436 41.831 39.636 87 .602 410.505 566.456 1937 244.361 42.313 40.185 88.412 415.271 573.105 1938 248.129 42 .838 41.007 89.287 421.260 581.309 1939 252.150 43.621 41.913 90.545 428.229 591.404 2020 257.201 44.389 42.996 91.883 436.469 601.938 2031 262.921 45.016 43.970 93.218 445.125 612.376 2022 268.174 45.631 45.054 94.468 453 .327 622.570 2023 273.101 46.213 45.914 95.615 460.843 632.159 2024 278.541 46 .933 47.168 97.002 469.644 643.695 2035 284.944 47.725 48.390 98.595 479.653 656.244 2096 291.574 48.589 49.885 100.313 490.360 669.844 207 298.898 49.572 51.364 102.240 502.074 685.056 2038 306.675 50.519 53.057 104.176 514.426 700.242 209 314.489 51.456 54.556 106.087 526.588 715.188 2010 322.260 52.315 56.217 107.905 538.697 729.379 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA74R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: PCEN.AA B-1 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE A CASE HOUSEHOLDS (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 83.538 13.907 12.481 27.991 137.917 183.784 1938 82.390 14.003 12.290 28.409 137.091 182.788 1939 81.554 14.058 12.139 29.217 136.968 182.640 1930 82.285 14.048 12.251 29.166 137.750 182.935 1931 82.626 13.943 12.341 29.288 138.197 184.202 1932 82.935 14.363 12.484 30.108 139.890 186.266 1933 84.421 14.505 12.697 30.337 141.960 189.193 1934 86.375 14.626 13.060 30.839 144.901 192.624 1935 88.266 14.859 13.349 31.323 147.798 195.948 1936 89.618 15.078 13.626 31.719 150.040 199.128 1937 90.920 15.286 13.846 32.094 152.145 201.985 1938 92.518 15.505 14.157 32.486 154.666 205.355 1939 94.219 15.819 14.499 33.023 157.560 209.356 2030 96.273 16.121 14.896 33.579 160.869 213.500 2021 98.577 16.371 15.255 34.133 164.336 217.604 2022 100.716 16.618 15.655 34.658 167.647 221.619 2033 102.740 16.855 15.977 35.145 170.716 225.422 2034 104.943 17.139 16.435 35.718 174.234 229.879 2095 107.475 17.442 16.876 36.356 178.149 234.680 2026 110.089 17.771 17.412 37.040 182.313 239.841 2097 112.956 18.142 17.941 37.799 186 .838 245.555 2038 115.985 18.498 18.542 38.559 191.584 251.271 209 119.035 18.850 19.077 39.311 196.274 256.916 2010 122.072 19.175 19.669 40.029 200.946 262.315 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA74R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: HHCEN.AA B-2 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE A CASE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 116.397 13.184 6.602 37.241 173.423 252.685 1938 114.895 13.298 6.502 37 .896 172.591 251.204 1939 113.598 13.336 6.399 38.954 172.287 250.789 1930 114.428 13.295 6.451 38.820 172.994 250.932 1931 115.223 13.219 6.518 39.058 174.017 253.920 1932 116.068 13.672 6.643 40.296 176.679 257.753 1933 118.359 13.824 6.768 40.658 179.609 262.392 1934 121.104 13.937 6.997 41.320 183.358 266.974 1935 123.052 14.078 7.119 41.723 185.972 269 .889 1936 124.308 14.217 7.257 42.029 187.812 272.790 1937 125.648 14.373 7.371 42.398 189.790 275.074 1938 127.759 14.570 7.560 42.874 192.762 279.294 1939 130.192 14.882 7.778 43.595 196.446 284.712 2020 132.640 15.125 8.002 44.185 199.952 289.282 2031 135.159 15.272 8.153 44.645 203.230 293.757 2022 137.480 15.422 8.348 45.079 206.330 298.171 2033 139.496 15.546 8.472 45.419 208.933 302.043 2094 142.573 15.810 8.756 46.128 213.267 308.377 2025 145.936 16.085 9.012 46.907 217.940 314.307 2036 149.484 16.392 9.351 47.769 222.996 320.825 2027 153.548 16.759 9.682 48.779 228.768 328.429 2038 157.338 17.054 10.038 49.634 234.064 334.968 2029 161.251 17.358 10.340 50.511 239.460 341.639 2010 164.667 17.582 10.663 51.198 244.110 346 .983 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA74R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: M.AA B-3 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE A CASE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (1987 $) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 20,256 13,723 13,775 16,585 18,193 17,115 1938 18,600 12,665 12,649 15,522 16,754 16,261 1939 18,977 12,999 12,856 15,669 17,049 16,499 1930 19,412 13,337 13,071 15,912 17,420 16,753 1931 19,832 13,628 13,360 16,239 17,798 17,002 1932 20,210 13,923 13,646 16,547 18,122 17,283 1933 20,534 14,157 13,828 16,843 18,424 17,643 1934 20,813 14,330 14,043 17,101 18,687 17,911 1935 20,945 14,435 14,119 17,229 18,814 18,100 1936 21,094 14,541 14,266 17,358 18,953 18,294 1937 21,139 14,576 14,343 17,385 18,996 18,250 1938 21,390 14,745 14,541 17,613 19,229 18,503 1939 215/22 14,965 14,842 17,894 19,533 18,201 2030 21,939 15,106 15,021 18,097 19,735 18,402 20)1 22,124 15,240 15,104 18,263 19,907 18,619 2032 22,295 15,366 15,209 18,411 20,065 18,825 203 22,430 15,471 15,274 18,525 20,190 19,019 2034 22,731 15,685 15,510 18,773 20,465 19,299 2095 22,961 15,837 15,692 18,989 20,682 19,514 2026 23,209 16,000 15,915 19,219 20,916 19,730 207 23,486 16,182 16,157 19,473 21,177 19,956 2038 23,674 16,306 16,320 19,660 21,358 20,132 2039 23,885 16,446 16,482 19,865 21,559 20,326 2010 24,023 16,538 16,585 20,014 21,694 20,481 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA74R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: DP.PI.AA B-4 Table B.2 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE B CASE POPULATION (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 231.288 39 .633 37.296 79.814 388.030 537.857 1938 227.622 39.730 36.602 80.821 384.775 533.581 1939 225.003 39.813 36.099 83.003 383.918 532.470 1930 226.800 39.734 36.406 82.931 385.870 532.537 1931 228.057 39.259 36.600 83.035 386.950 535.809 1932 229.783 40.318 37.020 85.161 392.282 541.786 1933 233.754 40.701 37.617 85.940 398.011 549.801 1934 238.305 41.104 38.694 87.488 405.591 560.141 1935 242.841 41.710 39.433 88 .908 412.893 568.996 1936 246.522 42.093 40.034 89.883 418.531 575.510 1937 249.220 42.714 40.715 91.018 423.667 584.159 1938 253.003 43.260 41.477 92.157 429.896 592.752 1939 257.259 43.870 42.192 93.408 436.727 600.976 2020 261.637 44.540 43.142 94.726 444.044 610.416 2031 266.875 45.151 44.059 96.212 452.296 620.635 202 272.638 45.819 45.243 97.828 461.527 631.887 203 278.494 46 .498 46.264 99.457 470.713 643.248 2014 284.043 47.200 47.454 101.104 479.801 654.747 205 289.999 47.924 48.541 102.819 489 .282 666.566 206 296.172 48.690 49.886 104.626 499 .374 679.117 _ 2027 302.704 49.439 51.060 106.452 509.655 691.553 “2028 308.987 50.135 52.383 108.196 519.700 703.447 2029 315.287 50.809 53.502 109.903 529.500 714.977 2010 321.868 51.530 54.926 111.719 540.043 727.350 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APASIR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: PCEN.AA B-5 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE B CASE HOUSEHOLDS (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 83.538 13.907 12.481 27.991 137.917 183.784 1938 82.452 13.987 12.286 28.460 137.185 182.873 1939 81.679 14.050 12.145 29.345 137.218 182.936 1930 82.567 14.059 12.282 29.399 138.307 183.623 1931 83.302 13.935 12.388 29.533 139.158 185.241 1932 84.087 14.338 12.553 30.382 141.359 187.762 1933 85.738 14.503 12.781 30.736 143.759 191.105 1934 87 .643 14.682 13.181 31.387 146.892 195.231 1995 89.533 14.931 13.463 31.987 149.914 198.836 1936 91.086 15.097 13.695 32.415 152.294 201.623 1997 92.306 15.355 13.961 32.913 154.535 205.119 1938 93.882 15.577 14.246 33.395 157.101 208.580 1939 95.630 15.821 14.515 33.918 159.884 211.900 2030 97.415 16.086 14.863 34.462 162.825 215.621 201 99.501 16.324 15.197 35.062 166.084 219.596 2022 101.771 16.581 15.620 35.706 169.678 223.915 2023 104.075 16.841 15.988 36.354 173.257 228.266 2024 106.267 17.110 16.414 37.009 176.801 232.661 2095 108 .603 17.385 16.804 37.687 180.479 237.160 2096 111.015 17.675 17.282 38.397 184.369 241.906 2097 113.554 17.957 17.699 39.112 188.321 246.613 2038 116.003 18.219 18.169 39.796 192.187 251.138 2039 118.459 18.474 18.568 40.468 195.968 255.538 2010 121.012 18.744 19.072 41.177 200.005 260.220 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAS1R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: HHCEN.AA B-6 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE B CASE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 116.397 13.184 6.602 37.241 173.423 252.685 1938 115.109 13.296 6.503 38.004 172.912 251.601 1939 114.059 13.361 6.415 33.219 173.054 251.828 1930 115.299 13.361 6.493 39.287 174.440 252.906 1931 117.040 13.319 6.593 39.704 176.655 256.680 1932 118.695 13.776 6.731 41.044 180.245 261.164 1933 121.107 13.942 6.862 41.548 183.459 265.875 1934 123.958 14.134 7.133 42.463 187.688 271.795 1935 125.507 14.247 7.225 42.882 189.860 274.264 1936 126.554 14.275 7.290 43 .068 191.187 275.606 1937 128.444 14.548 7.471 43.781 194.244 280.688 1938 130.081 14.697 7.613 44.225 196.615 284.119 1939 132.011 14.873 7.734 44.742 199.359 287.448 2030 134.404 15.115 7.948 45.424 202.892 292.164 20)1 137.051 15.314 8.125 46.124 206.613 296.890 2092 140.078 15.544 8.380 46.924 210.926 302.301 2023 142.853 15.745 8.566 47.630 214.795 307.158 2024 145.584 15.969 8.816 48.380 218.748 312.223 2095 148.538 16.201 9.028 49.167 222.934 317.499 2026 151.745 16.463 9.323 50.045 227.576 323.374 . 2077 154.859 16.689 9.543 50.842 231.934 328.667 2038 157.793 16.890 9.809 51.585 236.077 333 .582 2099 160.783 17.089 10.017 52.326 240.215 338.460 2010 164.027 17.317 10.318 53.156 244.818 343.921 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAQIR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: M.AA B-7 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE B CASE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (1987 $) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 20,256 13,723 13,775 16,585 18,193 17,115 1938 18,614 12,676 12,649 15,529 16,766 16,268 1939 18,996 13,009 12,864 15,685 17,066 16,504 1930 19,478 13,367 13,120 15,989 17,483 16,808 1931 19,886 13,638 13,409 16,327 17,860 17,039 1932 20,219 13,891 13,649 16,608 18,148 17,263 1933 20,471 14,068 13,794 16,860 18,388 17,552 1934 20,801 14,270 14,103 17,151 18,696 17,821 1935 20,757 14,272 14,061 17,097 18,657 17,719 1936 20,754 14,275 14,026 17,120 18,661 17,840 1937 21,062 14,471 14,328 17,379 18,942 17,541 1938 21,205 14,566 14,441 17,520 19,077 17,719 1939 21,356 14,665 14,540 17,673 19,219 17,906 2030 21,580 14,809 14,728 17,885 19,428 18,123 2031 21,774 14,931 14,866 18,078 19,612 18,324 2022 21,983 15,060 15,032 18,286 19,810 18,535 2023 22,120 15,145 15,130 18,433 19,944 18,707 2034 22,281 15,246 15,277 18,591 20,097 18,889 2095 22,451 15,355 15,411 18,761 20,260 19,077 2026 22,657 15,486 15,592 18,961 20,456 19,279 2097 22,814 15,587 15,706 19,125 20,607 19,456 ~ 2038 22,965 15,684 15,826 19,284 20,754 19,632 2039 23,126 15,788 15,933 19,453 20,909 19,819 2010 23,322 15,916 16,087 19,651 21,096 20,018 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAS1R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: DP.PI.AA B-8 Table B.3 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE C CASE POPULATION (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 231.287 39.633 37.296 79.814 388 .030 537.857 1938 227.932 39.794 36.671 80.940 385.337 534.444 1939 225.827 40.145 36.537 83.538 386.046 537.195 1930 228.365 40.119 36.984 83.645 389.112 538.548 1931 230.484 39.751 37.396 84.005 391.635 543.773 1932 232.621 40.712 37.857 86.081 397.271 549.383 1933 235.780 40.959 38.340 86.626 401.704 555.830 1934 238.550 40.996 38.944 87.496 405.985 561.199 1935 240.428 41.222 39.187 88.121 408.958 564.738 1936 242.424 41.405 39.534 88.685 412.046 568.476 1937 245.319 41.929 40.195 89.744 417.186 576.131 1938 248.716 42.355 40.891 90.704 422.665 583.549 1939 252.503 42.893 41.544 91.850 428.790 591.084 200 255.742 43.522 42.367 93.081 434.712 599.873 2021 260.685 44.029 43.185 94.338 442.236 609.745 2022 265.645 44.554 44.182 95.748 450.127 619.440 2093 270.431 45.084 44.960 97.097 457.572 629.303 2034 275.317 45.852 46.124 98.689 465.982 642.066 2035 280.444 46.175 46.848 103.013 476.479 658.801 2096 286.008 46.787 48.010 107.466 488.270 676.455 2097 293 .986 48.017 49.641 107.064 498.707 691.962 2098 300.161 49.599 51.527 108.208 509.494 701.536 2099 306.517 50.624 52.848 110.067 520.056 715.857 2010 313.346 51.409 54.236 112.120 531.111 729.158 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA1O5R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: PCEN.AA B-9 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE C CASE HOUSEHOLDS . (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 83.538 13.907 12.481 27.991 137.917 183.784 1938 82.565 14.009 12.309 28.504 137.388 183.171 1939 82.008 14.172 12.297 29.549 138.026 184.566 1930 83.171 14.200 12.482 29.670 139.523 185.708 1931 84.238 14.116 12.664 29.903 140.921 188.011 1932 85.180 14.485 12.844 30.736 143.245 190.425 1933 86.560 14.607 13.039 31.013 145.218 193.248 1934 87 .829 14.658 13.281 31.421 147.190 195.681 1935 88.774 14.780 13.401 31.742 148.696 197.464 1936 89.726 14.879 13.550 32.026 150.181 199.287 1937 90.991 15.097 13.805 32.485 152.378 202.423 1938 92.424 15.276 14.068 32.901 154.669 205.462 1939 93.999 15.495 14.316 33.385 157.195 208.524 2020 95.373 15.748 14.624 33.902 159.646 211.997 2001 97.366 15.951 14.926 34.419 162.662 215.826 2022 99.366 16.161 15.291 34.996 165.814 219.587 203 101.301 16.373 15.579 35.549 168.801 223.395 2004 103.263 16.669 16.000 36.188 172.120 228.181 2095 105.230 16.789 16.255 37.777 176.050 234.317 2036 107.374 17.016 16.664 39.420 180.473 240.780 2037 110.422 17.467 17.234 39.329 184.452 246.528 2038 112.942 18.072 17.919 39.877 188.810 250.274 2099 115.425 18.457 18.389 40.611 192.882 255.615 * 2010 118.070 18.750 18.880 41.409 197.109 260.618 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA1OSR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: HHCEN.AA B-10 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE C CASE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 116.397 13.184 6.602 37.241 173.423 252.685 1938 115.228 13.314 6.516 38.048 173.105 251.912 1939 115.529 13.604 6.588 39.826 175.547 256.167 1930 117.340 13.642 6.706 40.040 177.728 258.220 1931 119.891 13.664 6.866 40.664 181.085 264.143 1932 121.986 14.109 7.018 42.050 185.162 269.197 1933 124.305 14.260 7.142 42.528 188.235 274.088 1934 125.862 14.277 7.283 42.991 190.413 276.906 1935 126.222 14.281 7.283 43.090 190.877 277.266 1936 126.720 14.278 7.320 43.184 191.502 277.958 1937 129.064 14.567 7.528 44.017 195.176 282.882 1938 130.887 14.716 7.681 44.501 197.784 286.567 1939 132.740 14.885 7.802 45.018 200.445 289 .893 2030 134.499 15.113 7.995) 45.639 203.246 294.189 2021 136.975 15.259) 8.134 46.167 206.535 299.137 2022 139.300 15.381 8.306 46.691 209.678 304.135 2093 141.052 15.451 8.384 47.021 211.908 308.239 204 143.910 15.742 8.654 47.849 216.155 315.313 2025 147.566 15.940 8.831 50.039 222.377 325.716 2096 151.396 16.247 9.142 52.318 229.103 335.835 2017 155.242 16.651 9.483 52.214 233.589 342.479 2018 156.668 17.025 9.836 52.406 235.935 342.420 2019 159.651 17.348 10.101 53.218 240.317 348.351 2010 162.454 17.530 10.350 53.961 244.295 353.017 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APALOSR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: M.AA B-11 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS MIDDLE C CASE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (1987 $) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 20,256 13,723 13,775 16,585 18,193 17,114 1938 18,613 12,674 12,656 15,528 16,765 16,276 1939 19,097 13,066 13,056 15,763 17,159 16,551 1930 19,596 13,384 13,335 16,146 17,601 16,886 1931 19,934 13,608 13,571 16,408 17,911 17,079 1932 20,135 13,767 13,685 16,581 18,080 17,262 1933 20,257 13,851 13,736 16,710 18,199 17,507 1934 20,247 13,834 13,754 16,715 18,198 17,635 1935 20,102 13,754 13,636 16,598 18,070 17,699 1936 19,973 13,668 13,528 16,505 17,957 17,769 1937 20,114 13,739 13,718 16,649 18,094 17,955 1938 20,110 13,729 13,729 16,667 18,096 18,064 1939 20,082 13,704 13,714 16,663 18,076 18,151 2020 20,133 13,727 13,814 16,711 18,124 18,260 2031 20,087 13,697 13,754 16,623 18,075 18,114 202 20,070 13,669 13,710 16,610 18,058 18,183 203 20,004 13,644 13,610 16,541 17,997 18,217 2094 20,110 13,719 13,743 16,607 18,092 18,326 2025 20,418 14,003 13,899 16,967 18,392 18,421 2036 20,621 14,180 14,074 17,246 18,599 18,484 2097 20,527 14,079 14,112 17,096 18,514 18,498 208 20,066 13,642 13,991 16,701 18,093 18,442 209 20,054 13,612 14,043 16,693 18,086 18,474 2010 19,973 13,543 13,987 16,651 18,019 18,457 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA1OSR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: DP.PI.AA B-12 ‘Table B.4 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGH CASE POPULATION (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 231.287 39.633 37.296 79.814 388.030 537.857 1938 227.866 39.772 36.642 80.907 385.186 534.151 1939 226.078 40.110 36.535 83.461 386.185 537.222 1930 228.987 40.057 36.997 83.508 389.549 538.757 1931 231.783 39.714 37.501 83.896 392.894 544.986 1992 234.775 40.710 38.081 86.023 399.589 551.888 1833 239.002 41.028 38.728 86.686 405.443 560.111 1934 243 .382 41.314 39.715 87.927 412.337 569.564 1935 247.276 41.753 40.332 88 .932 418.293 577.027 1936 251.519 42.228 41.134 89.995 424.875 585.700 1937 256.773 43.017 42.199 91.548 433.536 597 .972 1938 262.898 43.758 43 .388 93.105 443.149 610.791 1939 269.620 44.605 44.539 94.861 453.624 623.813 2000 277.016 45.735 46.140 97.012 465.902 640.871 2091 285.494 46.561 47.504 98.918 478.477 656.480 2092 293.062 47.468 49.023 100.970 490.522 672.204 2023 300.608 48.331 50.292 102.919 502.149 687 .643 2024 307.666 49.437 51.896 105.148 514.147 705.686 2095 314.644 49.882 52.794 109.746 527.064 725.010 2026 322.202 50.658 54.228 114.519 541.607 745.812 2027 331.473 51.624 55.720 113.874 552.690 759.947 2028 338.139 53.218 57.662 114.915 563.933 770.571 2099 344.816 54.001 58.777 116.369 573.963 783.061 2010 352.702 54.967 60.438 118.573 586.680 799.425 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APALOR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: PCEN.AA B-13 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGH CASE HOUSEHOLDS (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 83.538 13.907 12.481 27.991 137.917 183.784 1938 82.540 14.001 12.299 28.491 137.332 183.070 1939 82.098 14.159 12.296 29.519 138.072 184.575 1930 83.394 14.177 12.485 29.616 139.672 185.779 1931 84.719 14.102 12.700 29.860 141.381 188.428 1932 85.984 14.484 12.920 30.714 144.102 191.289 1933 87.767 14.631 13.172 31.035 146.606 194.728 1934 89.643 14.773 13.546 31.582 149.544 198.574 1935 91.336 14-969 13.793 32.039 152.136 201.723 1936 93.128 15.172 14.098 32.507 154.904 205.268 1937 95.274 15.484 14.491 33.148 158.396 210.029 1938 97.726 15.774 14.923 33.783 162.207 214.971 1939 100.398 16.102 15.341 34.492 166.334 219.977 2090 103.331 16.534 15.917 35.350 171.132 226.358 2091 106.629 16.847 16.403 36.100 175.980 232.252 2022 109.616 17.195 16.948 36.917 180.675 238.189 2093 112.594 17.527 17.406 37.694 185.221 244.033 2094 115.394 17.948 17.983 38.576 189.900 250.765 2095 118.098 18.117 18.303 40.280 194.797 257.946 2026 121.033 18.409 18.811 42.053 200.307 265.646 2097 124.622 18.770 19.340 41.889 204.621 271.103 2038 127.407 19.390 20.056 42.419 209.272 275.370 2039 130.090 19.697 20.467 43.023 213.276 280.256 2010 133.192 20.064 21.062 43.894 218.212 286.451 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA1OR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: HHCEN.AA B-14 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGH CASE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 116.397 13.184 6.602 37.241 173.423 252.685 1938 115.109 13.296 6.503 38.004 172.913 251.602 1939 115.690 13.595 6.586 39.796 175.667 256.246 1930 117.749 13.629 6.706 39.996 178.080 258.502 1931 120.721 13.654 6.871 40.612 181.859 265.489 1932 123.354 14.109 7.037 42.013 186.512 271.794 1933 126.362 14.283 7.186 42.540 190.371 278.284 1934 129.453 14.453 7.442 43.368 194.716 284.908 1935 131.241 14.564 7.535 43.746 197.085 288.161 1936 133.337 14.699 7.684 44.183 199.903 292.405 1937 137.011 15.078 7.970 45.242 205.300 300.053 1938 140.440 15.342 8.225 46.027 210.034 306.994 1939 143.879 15.609 8.438 46.810 214.736 313.343 2030 148.303 16.037 8.801 47 943 221.085 323.444 2021 152.673 16.300 9.058 48.815 226.846 330.663 2022 156.579 16.586 9.369 49.739 232.273 338.418 203 159.830 16.788 9.561 50.404 236.583 344.771 2024 163.857 17.212 9.944 51.573 242.585 353.904 2095 167.585 17.344 10.083 53.605 248.617 363.669 2006 172.118 17.664 10.422 55.918 256.121 374.541 2097 175.186 17.812 10.606 55.205 258.810 377.555 2098 176.762 18.192 10.963 55.336 261.253 377 .832 2009 179.007 18.332 11.104 55.666 264.107 381.086 2010 183.263 18.678 11.475 56.768 270.183 389.023 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA1OR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: M.AA B-15 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGH CASE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (1987 $) MATANUSKA/ i ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 20,256 13,723 13,775 16,585 18,193 17,114 1938 18,594 12,662 12,635 15,512 16,748 16,250 1939 19,123 13,085 13,058 15,774 17,181 16,532 1930 19,652 13,424 13,338 16,172 17,649 16,865 1931 20,051 13,699 13,577 16,457 18,007 17,085 1932 20,313 13,908 13,696 16,655 18,226 17,295 1933 20,501 14,042 13,756 16,813 18,398 17,579 1934 20,673 14,147 13,915 16,941 18,556 17,796 1935 20,627 14,134 13,859 16,889 18,516 17,899 1936 20,616 14,127 13,838 16,871 18,506 18,015 1937 20,795 14,229 14,038 17,027 18,674 18,206 1938 20,854 14,259 14,082 17,079 18,731 18,332 1939 20,867 14,258 14,074 17,093 18,745 18,423 2020 21,025 14,357 14,221 17,200 18,884 18,616 2031 21,016 14,321 14,193 17,194 18,881 18,667 2022 21,004 14,289 14,205 17,185 18,872 18,705 2023 20,934 14,244 14,134 17,115 18,810 18,708 2034 21,067 14,322 14,321 17,197 18,930 18,796 2005 21,161 14,433 14,277 17,345 19,024 18,561 2026 21,327 14,562 14,395 17,594 19,195 18,614 2027 21,041 14,343 14,194 17,276 18,933 18,550 2038 20,643 13,994 14,112 16,909 18,571 18,528 2039 20,517 13,893 14,021 16,795 18,458 18,531 ~ 2010 20,602 13,931 14,107 16,872 18,538 18,606 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA1OR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: DP.PI.AA B-16 Table B.5 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOW CASE POPULATION (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 231.288 39.633 37.296 79.814 388.030 537.857 1938 227.932 39.794 36.671 80.941 385.337 534.445 1939 225.230 39.869 36.152 83.114 384.365 533.234 1930 226.489 39.751 36.385 82.951 385.575 532.632 1931 226.958 39.210 36.471 82.897 385.535 534.775 1932 227.395 40.121 36.715 84.679 388.910 538.576 1933 229.544 40.262 37.025 84.946 391.776 543.053 1934 232.048 40.398 37.765 85.908 396.119 549.366 1935 234.049 40.653 38.073 86.581 399.355 553.089 1936 235.650 40.780 38.296 87.010 401.736 555.668 1937 236.759 41.251 38.722 87.812 404.543 561.844 1938 238.644 41.572 39.135 88.476 407.827 566.917 1939 241.091 41.980 39.529 89.305 411.905 571.968 2030 243.775 42.474 40.160 90.253 416.662 578.544 2c)1 247.148 42.887 40.745 91.317 422.097 585.525 2022 250.969 43.348 41.543 92.491 428.350 593.353 2093 254.539 43.784 42.137 93.601 434.061 600.729 2004 257 .812 44.253 42.859 94.745 439.668 608.311 2035 261.477 44.737 43.499 95.956 445.669 616.155 2026 265.344 45.261 44.345 97.255 452.203 624.640 2027 269.458 45.802 45.082 98.600 458.942 633.366 2038 273.536 46 .333 45.956 99.944 465.768 642.102 + 2099 277.781 46.878 46.705 101.320 472.683 650.956 2010 282.344 47 .462 47.694 102.795 480.295 660.538 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA115R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: PCEN.AA B-17 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOW CASE HOUSEHOLDS (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 83.538 13.907 12.481 27991 137.917 183.784 1938 82.566 14.009 12.309 28.504 137.388 183.171 1939 81.763 14.070 12.163 29.386 137.382 183.201 1930 82.462 14.067 125277 29.410 138.215 183.660 1931 82.916 13.922 12.347 29.488 138.673 184.889 1932 83.240 14.275 12.455 30.217 140.186 186.660 1933 84.234 14.358 12.589 30.387 141.569 188.780 1934 85.396 14.445 12.877 30.827 143.546 191.507 1935 86.364 14.573 13.016 31.158 145.111 193.325 1936 87.154 14.650 195125 31.388 146.313 194.723 1937 87.781 14.856 13.299 31.761 147.698 197.323 1938 88.651 14.999 13.466 32.069 149.186 199.524 1939 89.721 15.172 13.624 32.434 150.951 201.695 2000 90.865 15.373 13.863 32.839 152.939 204.365 2091 92.247 15.540 14.081 33.279 155.148 207.154 2092 93.782 15.722 14.372 33.756 157.632 210.217 2023 95.224 15.895 14.591 34.208 159.919 213.114 2004 96.554 16.080 14.856 34.673 162.162 216.067 2095 98.018 16.268 15.089 35.158 164.534 219.096 2026 99.548 16.468 15.393 35.673 167 .082 222 .333 2097 101.163 16.674 15.658 36.202 169.697 225.643 2038 102.761 16.875 15.969 36.730 172.335 228.951 2099 104.417 17.080 16.236 37.268 175.001 232.292 2010 106.182 17.297 16.586 37.839 177.904 235.875 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAL15R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: HHCEN. AA B-18 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOW CASE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 116.397 13.184 6.602 37.241 173.423 252.685 1938 115.229 13.314 6.516 38.048 173.107 251.914 1939 114.074 13.369 6.421 39.236 173.100 251.961 1930 115.001 13.352 6.484 39.247 174.085 252.644 1931 116.401 13.297 6.569 39.610 175.876 256.027 1932 117.766 13.748 6.698 40.915 179.127 260.296 1933 119.671 13.884 6.802 41.322 181.679 264.286 1934 121.937 14.040 7.036 42.119 185.133 269.346 1935 122.693 14.093 7.075 42.352 186.213 270.507 1936 122.773 14.044 7.070 42.309 186.196 270.219 1937 123.758 14.262 7.198 42.836 188.053 274.000 1938 124.473 14.340 7.272 43 .069 189.154 275.911 1939 125.417 14.442 7.326 43.362 190.545 277.636 2030 126.849 14.616 7.469 43.836 192.770 280.841 2021 128.512 14.745 7.578 44.323 195.159 284.009 2022 130.472 14.897 7.749 44.886 198.003 287 .686 2093 131.946 15.001 7.840 45.297 200.083 290.416 2024 133.286 15.121 7.976 45.727 202.110 293.198 2095 134.816 15.244 8.080 46.185 204.325 296.103 2096 136.566 15.394 8.250 46.726 206.936 299.534 2027 138.383 15.543 8.378 47.269 209.573 302.971 2098 140.096 15.680 8.543 47 .782 212.100 306.215 2029 141.860 15.817 8.665 48.300 214.641 309.465 * 2010 143.958 15.986 8.864 48.924 217.732 313.393 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAL1SR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: M.AA B-19 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOW CASE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (1987 $) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 20,256 13,723 13,775 16,585 18,193 17,115 1938 18,613 12,675 12,656 15,528 16,765 16,276 1939 18,827 12,885 12,759 15,552 16,915 16,422 1930 19,100 13,097 12,881 15,672 17,141 16,584 1931 19,338 13,246 13,066 15,864 17,363 16,727 1932 19,553 13,412 13,242 16,042 17,544 16,901 1933 19,694 13,502 13,319 16,195 17,680 17,137 1934 19,917 13,626 13,557 16,391 17 ,888 17,360 1935 19,777 13,554 13,448 16,252 17,760 17,223 1936 19,605 13,438 13,295 16,128 17,609 17,254 1937 19,721 13,501 13,473 16,215 17,712 16,715 1938 19,684 13,468 13,461 16,199 17,681 16,780 1939 19,636 13,426 13,423 16,177 17,640 16,839 2020 19,656 13,427 13,471 16,209 17,662 16,921 2091 19,655 13,410 13,474 16,230 17,666 16,993 2092 19,657 13,394 13,492 16,255 17,673 17,072 2093 19,580 13,330 13,439 16,212 17,609 17,113 2034 19,514 13,278 13,422 16,169 17,554 17,154 2095 19,453 13,227 13,389 16,134 17,503 17,196 2036 19,421 13,195 13,393 16,123 17,479 17,248 2027 19,379 13,157 13,374 16,105 17,446 17,293 2028 19,325 13,111 13,356 16,077 17,402 17,328 2039 19,267 13,064 13,322 16,046 17,356 17,362 2010 19,249 13,040 13,330 16,050 17,344 17,410 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAL15R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: DP.PI.AA B-20 Table B.6 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGHEST CASE POPULATION (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 231.288 39.633 37.296 79.814 388.030 537.857 1938 227.689 39.752 36.632 80.854 384.926 533.874 1939 226.561 40.124 36.583 83.446 386.714 537.274 1930 230.928 40.220 37.257 83.791 392.196 540.881 1931 237.019 40.152 38.271 84.719 400.161 552.262 1$32 244.397 41.752 39.655 88.079 413.882 568.002 1933 253.767 42.839 41.224 90.217 428.046 587.596 1934 263.544 43 .879 43.163 92.892 443.479 608.650 1935 273.101 44.790 44.630 98.221 460.742 633.742 1936 283.795 46.014 46.585 103.777 480.169 661.059 1937 297 .387 48.054 49.232 104.703 499.376 688.165 1938 309.157 50.231 51,927 106.822 518.137 707.321 1939 318.691 51.420 53.567 108.818 532.496 724.181 2030 3279952 52.585 55.389 111.101 547.027 742.474 2031 336.885 53.535 56.894 113.215 560.528 759.101 2022 345.358 54.439 58.571 115.236 573.603 775.089 2023 354.318 55.338 60.104 117.276 587.035 791.220 2094 363.804 56.494 62.168 119.715 602.182 810.525 2035 374.621 57.510 64.000 122.114 618.244 828.954 2096 385.215 58.742 66.278 124.759 634.994 849.773 2077 396.470 59.736 68.167 127.140 651.513 868.408 2098 407.130 61.000 70.532 129.800 668.461 889.779 2099 419.422 62.160 72.706 132.487 686.773 910.851 2010 432.248 63.607 75.499 135.610 706.963 935.484 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA192R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: PCEN.AA B-21 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGHEST CASE HOUSEHOLDS (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 83.538 13.907 12.481 27.991 137.917 183.784 1938 82.478 13.995 12.296 28.473 137.241 182.974 1939 82.260 14.161 12.310 29.509 138.241 184.591 1930 84.070 14.227 12.567 29.708 140.572 186.510 1931 86.575 14.243 12.948 30.138 143.903 190.937 1932 89.432 14.833 13.436 31.436 149.136 196.854 1933 93.093 15.248 13.996 32.292 154.630 204.238 1934 96.940 15.652 14.689 33.357 160.638 212.134 1935 100.667 16.003 15.214 35.343 167.227 221.425 1936 104.806 16.463 15.904 37.410 174.583 231.500 1937 110.002 17.212 16.828 37.850 181.893 241.530 1938 114.657 18.033 17.791 38.780 189.260 248.867 1939 118.440 18.492 18.386 39.605 194.923 255.427 2020 122.146 18.946 19.048 40.537 200.678 262.478 2031 125.716 19.320 19.599 41.401 206.036 268.968 2022 129.124 19.679 20.211 42.233 211.247 275.246 2093 132.708 20.034 20.772 43.069 216.582 281.575 2094 136.484 20.481 21.517 44.052 222.534 288 .988 2095 140.734 20.872 220175 45.011 228.792 296.116 2096 144.914 21.343 22.993 46.066 235.316 304.064 2027 149.336 21.726 23.672 47.019 241.753 311.287 2038 153.555 22.210 24.522 48 .082 248.369 319.445 2099 158.357 22.651 25.299 49.145 255.452 327.517 2010 163.354 23.194 26.291 50.371 263.209 336.806 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA192R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: HHCEN.AA B-22 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGHEST CASE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 116.397 13.184 6.602 37.241 173.423 252.685 1938 115.228 13.314 6.516 38.048 173.105 251.911 1939 116.185 13.627 6.607 39.876 176.295 256.817 1930 118.894 13.697 6.759 40.185 179.536 259.838 1931 123.972 13.856 7.045 41.180 186.053 270.053 1932 128.605 14.470 7.345 43.038 193.458 280.348 1933 133.476 14.803 7.620 43.958 199.857 290.927 1934 138.637 15.148 8.022 45.219 207.025 301.434 1935 144.141 15.486 8.305 47.715 215.646 315.039 1936 150.143 15.931 8.721 50.313 225.107 329.057 1937 157.127 16.638 9.285 50.918 233.968 341.524 1938 160.851 17.135 9.738 51.363 239.088 345.228 1939 165.127 17.455 10.012 52.096 244.690 352.063 2020 169.767 17.805 10.361 53.050 250.982 361.221 2091 173.830 18.061 10.618 53.881 256.391 367.901 2092 177.945 18.334 10.955 54.762 261.995 374.837 2093 182.494 18.623 11.251 55.708 268.076 382.254 2094 188.290 19.108 11.761 57.142 276.300 392.969 2005 193.491 19.403 12.096 58.163 283.153 400.803 2096 199.688 19.893 12.641 59.639 291.861 411.862 2097 204.746 20.143 12.961 60.543 298 .393 419.071 2098 211.108 20.657 13.540 62.061 307.366 430.612 2029 217.316 21.027 13.967 63.296 315.607 440.150 2010 224.743 21.594 14.635 65.017 325.988 453.088 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA192R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: M.AA B-23 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS HIGHEST CASE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (1987 $) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 20,256 13,723 13,775 16,585 18,193 17,115 1938 18,633 12,688 12,669 15,544 16,783 16,293 1939 19,539 13,318 13,342 16,211 17,570 16,873 1230 20,213 13,760 13,695 16,745 18,172 17,311 1931 20,917 14,229 14,118 17,288 18,809 17,704 1932 21,320 14,526 14,322 17,614 19,156 17,959 1933 21,601 14,755 14,439 17,840 19,414 18,227 1934 21,851 14,923 14,669 18,035 19,648 18,430 1935 22,332 15,361 14,911 18,547 20,110 18,634 1936 22,685 15,658 15,152 18,975 20,459 18,814 1937 22,817 15,699 15,402 19,010 20,582 18,994 1938 22 ,398 15,281 15,287 18,655 20,203 19,037 1939 22,520 15,354 15,345 18,762 20,317 19,248 2090 22,763 15,530 15,484 18,954 20,535 19,553 2091 22,857 15,595 15,537 19,053 20,630 19,726 2022 23,016 15,701 15,653 19,204 20,782 19,934 2093 23,207 15,827 15,769 19,386 20,964 20,166 2034 23,570 16,067 16,075 19,707 21,301 20,476 2095 23,727 16,172 16,147 19,868 21,454 20,671 2026 24,066 16,395 16,424 20,173 21,770 20,956 2097 24,163 16,464 16,446 20,285 21,869 21,117 2098 24,520 16,702 16,742 20,600 22,200 21,406 2099 24,730 16,844 16,860 20,808 22,401 21,610 2010 25,097 17,086 17,149 21,143 22,743 21,877 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APA192R MODEL VARIABLE NAME: DP.PI.AA B-24 Table B.7 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOWEST CASE POPULATION (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 231.287 39.633 37.296 79.814 388.030 537.857 1938 227.626 39.805 36.641 80.742 384.814 533.768 1939 224.451 39.869 36.080 82.724 383.124 531.833 1930 225.111 39.701 36.225 82.300 383 .337 529.993 1931 223.679 39.118 36.099 82.050 380.946 529.565 1932 221.936 39.964 36.084 83.577 381.560 530.246 1933 222.746 39.942 36.164 83.352 382.204 531.857 1934 223.851 39 .883 36.656 83.781 384.171 534.984 1935 224.393 39.954 36.719 83.909 384.974 535.482 1936 224.520 39 .892 36.686 83.776 384.874 534.736 1937 224.113 40.109 36.805 83.938 384.965 536.927 1938 224.400 40.211 36.937 83.983 385.531 538.334 1939 225.272 40.410 37.066 84.202 386.949 539.814 2030 226.310 40.676 37.404 84.508 388 .898 542.590 2031 227 .983 40.857 37.694 84.919 391.452 545.699 2022 230.143 41.089 38.197 85.446 394.874 549.685 2033 232.098 41.304 38.512 85.917 397.830 553.284 2034 233.704 41.548 38.931 86.408 400.591 556.992 2095 235.631 41.805 39.270 86.954 403.660 560.902 2026 237.760 42.100 39.801 87.585 407.246 565.424 2097 240.111 42.412 40.233 88.256 411.010 570.160 2038 242.432 42.723 40.794 88.931 414.880 574.988 209 244.906 43.048 41.242 89.635 418.830 579.917 2010 247.650 43.406 41.905 90.426 423.387 585.492 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAIR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: PCEN.AA B-25 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOWEST CASE HOUSEHOLDS (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 83.538 13.907 12.481 27.991 137.917 183.784 1938 82.477 14.018 12.303 28.440 137.238 182.985 1939 81.533 14.080 12.147 29.263 137.024 182.814 1930 82.043 14.066 12.236 29.202 137.547 182.893 1931 81.884 13.921 12.249 29.242 137.296 183.388 1932 81.487 14.269 12.283 29.913 137.953 184.223 1933 82.021 14.302 12.344 29.915 138 .582 185.410 1934 82.697 14.325 12.1554 30.171 139.746 187.078 1935 83.156 14.395 12.614 30.312 140.477 187.819 1936 83.429 14.411 12.636 30.346 140.822 188.100 1937 83.515 14.532 12.715 30.492 141.254 189.349 1938 83.817 14.603 12.790 30.579 141.789 190.303 1939 84.325 14.706 12.862 30.727 142.620 191.252 2020 84.878 14.831 13.004 30.901 143.614 192.615 2021 85.648 14.920 13.125 31.106 144.800 194.067 2022 86.583 15.024 13.318 31.348 146.273 195.795 2093 87.437 15.121 13.445 31.568 147.571 197.371 2024 88.157 15.229 13.608 31.794 148.788 198.965 2035 88.984 15.338 13.741 32.035 150.098 200.607 2026 89.874 15.459 13.939 32.303 151.575 202.441 2097 90.837 15.584 14.100 32.583 153.105 204.333 2098 91.783 15.708 14.306 32.863 154.660 206.243 _ 2099 92.780 15.835 14.471 33.151 156.236 208.176 “2010 93.866 15.972 14.709 33.466 158.015 210.316 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAIR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: HHCEN. AA B-26 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOWEST CASE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 116.397 13.184 6.602 37.241 173.423 252.685 1938 114.895 13.298 6.502 37.896 172.591 251.204 1939 113.376 13.335 6.395 38.949 172.056 250.615 1930 113.778 13.277 6.430 38.762 172.247 250.233 1931 113.707 13.155 6.456 38.873 172.190 251.348 1932 113.496 13.534 6.519 39.904 173.453 253.174 1933 114.530 13.596 6.567 40.018 174.711 255.430 1934 115.924 13.672 6.743 40.511 176.850 258.675 1935 115.896 13.658 6.733 40.472 176.759 258.242 1936 115.213 13.544 6.677 40.157 175.591 256.369 1937 115.257 13.655 6.731 40.322 175.964 257.923 1938 115.185 13.663 6.751 40.271 175.870 258.175 1939 115.399 13.702 6.759 40.299 176.159 258.387 2020 116.001 13.802 6.845 40.473 177.121 259.839 2021 116.811 13.855 6.898 40.656 178.220 261.232 2022 117.962 13.935 7.012 40.927 179.837 263.207 2033 118.678 13.972 7.054 41.058 180.762 264.313 2094 a19).197 14.018 7.132 41.190 181.537 265.347 2095 119.856 14.066 7.178 41.339 182.439 266.447 2036 120.737 14.141 7.286 41.569 183.733 268.062 2097 121.670 14.215 7.356 41.798 185.039 269.671 2028 122.534 14.281 7.462 42.012 186.289 271.186 2099 123.433 14.348 7.528 42.224 187.534 272.680 ~ 2010 124.617 14.443 7.663 42.529 189.252 274.763 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAIR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: M.AA B-27 RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LOWEST CASE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (1987 $) MATANUSKA/ ANCHORAGE KENAI PENINSULA SUSITNA FAIRBANKS(A) TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL STATE 1937 20,256 13,723 13,775 16,585 18,193 17,114 1938 18,580 12,651 12,636 15,505 16,736 16,244 1939 18,786 12,859 12,743 15,521 16,878 16,373 1930 19,027 13,052 12,843 15,614 17,075 16,506 1931 19,174 13,144 12,981 15,728 17,210 16,565 1932 19,327 13,269 13,130 15,857 17,330 16,701 1933 19,447 13,350 13,187 15,991 17,448 16,937 1934 19,657 13,469 13,409 16,174 17,642 17,167 1935 19,524 13,404 13,296 16,039 17,519 17,053 1936 19,351 13,291 13,132 15,913 17,366 17,102 1937 19,418 13,330 13,257 15,957 17,424 16,610 1938 19,388 13,305 13,242 15,946 17,398 16,703 1939 19,354 13,277 13,209 15,935 17,370 16,794 2020 19,378 13,284 13,253 15,971 17,394 16,903 2021 19,380 13,272 13,252 15,996 17,401 17,003 2022 19,394 13,265 13,273 16,034 17,419 17,111 203 19,329 13,211 13,220 16,003 17,366 17,180 2034 19,265 13,162 13,198 15,963 17,312 17,245 2095 19,201 13,113 13,158 15,928 17,259 17,308 2036 19,170 13,083 13,159 15,920 17,236 17,381 2027 19,128 13,046 13,136 15,904 17,202 17,445 2028 19,078 13,004 13,119 15,881 17,162 17,502 2029 19,020 12,958 13,083 15,853 17G115 17,553 “2010 19,001 12,935 13,090 15,857 17,103 17,616 (A) INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKS CENSUS AREA. MODEL CASE NAME: APAIR MODEL VARIABLE NAME: DP.PI.AA B-28 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 APPENDIX C CRITICAL ASSUMPTION DESCRIPTION This appendix contains the memorandum utilized by the APA Board in selecting the probabilities attached to the alternative scenarios for the critical assumptions as well as a description of the oil price scenarios and the model used to estimate petroleum revenues. i. Oil Price Assumptions The oil price scenario probabilities were chosen by the APA Board. The oil price scenarios were developed by ICF-Lewin Energy Group and appear in a report to the APA entitled Outlooks for World Oil Prices: Analysis of Alternative Schools of Thought 1987-2010, February 1988. The prices and probabilities are as follows: World Oil Price (1987 $) Probability of Scenario 1990 2010 Occurrence Low $14 $20 60% Consensus Low $18 $30 30% Consensus $20 $40 10% Combining these price scenario probabilities with the petroleum production probabilities contained in the Critical Assumption memorandum yields the following probabilities for each of the six distinct petroleum price/production scenarios. Production Price Low High Low 30% 30% Consensus Low 21% 9% Consensus 7% 3% The world oil price used in the ICF report is the price of Saudi Light delivered to the Gulf Coast of the United States. This differs from the price of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude, the Alaska Department of Revenue "OPEC Marker" crude, and crude prices commonly reported in the media. The price differences among these crudes arise from a number of factors, including transportation cost, quality of crude, value to the refinery, terms of sale (spot, contract, future, etc.), and whether the transaction between producer and refinery is "arms length." For this study, we assumed that ANS crude delivered to the Gulf of Mexico sold for a discount of $1.00 compared to the price of Saudi Light delivered to the Gulf as defined by ICF. This differential reflects the lower quality of ANS crude, the specific configuration of the Gulf refineries, and the fact that not all of the sales of ANS crude at the Gulf are at “arms length." This assumption is incor- porated in a spreadsheet model (PETBUCK) developed for this report and used to estimate Alaska petroleum severance taxes and royalties from oil prices (see section iii of this appendix). The other important assumptions determining the level of revenues for a given oil price are the amount and composition of production, the proportion of crude sales on the West Coast relative to the Gulf Coast, transportation costs, and the proportion of production subject to the Economic Limit Factor of the severance tax. The level of production is a function of price, and the composition of production is important to the determination of revenues primarily because the state is projected to receive no severance tax receipts from production on Federal lands on the OCS or in ANWR and only 50 percent of the Federal royalties. The West Coast ANS price, currently estimated to be $1.50 below the Gulf Coast price due to restrictive market conditions on the West Coast, is projected to gradually move toward parity with the Gulf Coast. At the same time, ANS sales are projected to become more heavily concentrated on the West Coast over time. Transportation costs from Valdez to market are assumed to remain constant in real dollars. The pipeline tariff falls over time as the cost of construction is amortized but at a slowing rate over time as the volume of oil in the line falls. The proportion of production subject to the Economic Limit Factor rises over time as production from Sadlerochit falls as a percentage of total North Slope production. Cc-2 ii. Critical Assumption Memorandum SIX CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS WHICH INFLUENCE PROJECTIONS OF RAILBELT HOUSEHOLDS AND EMPLOYMENT ay, In this appendix we present 6 factors (in addition to the world price of oil) which have a particularly strong influence on projections of household and employment levels in the Alaska Railbelt. Although not an all inclusive list of assumptions necessary to generate Railbelt projections, these factors satisfy the following two conditions: a. Projected household and employment levels vary consider- ably in response to relatively small changes in assumed values for these variables, and b. Considerable uncertainty surrounds the future values these variables will have. 2. Great uncertainty surrounds some assumptions which have little impact on the aggregate projections. The growth rate of agricultural employment is an example of an assumption with little certainty, but since it is such a small sector, its variability can be ignored. Other assumptions are important in determining aggregate employment and population, but there is little controversy over their values. The proportion of income taken by the federal government as income taxes is an example of such an assumption. 3. We can vary each of these factors independently and see how Railbelt household and employment projections are impacted. In particular, if we assume there are two possible alternative assumptions (cases) for each of these six factors, then 64 possible factor assumption combinations yield 64 Railbelt household and employment projections. If we include three possible world oil prices, the total number of projections rises to 192. ay The likelihood, or probability, that any of these projections will be the "true" one depends upon the probabilities assigned to the two alternative assumptions (cases) for each of the six influencing factors. 52 For each of the six factors we have developed two alternative cases which describe reasonable scenarios. We have assigned a likelihood or probability to each of the cases. We assume there are only two possible cases for each factor and thus the probabilities sum to one for each factor. Review the probabilities assigned each case. 6. As with any projection methodology, this one is only as good as its assumptions. Its advantage is the systematic way in which the assumptions are treated and the discipline it forces onto the analysis. c-3 1, PETROLEUM PRODUCTION [EMP E D_ STATE REVENUES Two development/production scenarios have been constructed for each of the three world oil price alternatives. The probabilities assigned to the two scenarios associated with each oil price must sum to one. (They are conditional probabilities.) WORLD PROBABILITY OIL PRICE CASE ---MAJOR NEW ACTIVITIES-- (1987 $) 1990 2010 WEST SAK ANWR/OCS TAGS LE NO NO NO 50% $14 $20 2 2000+ NO NO 50% 3 2000+ NO 2000+ 70% $18 $30 4 1990+ 2000+ 2000+ 30% 5 1990+ NO 1990+ 70% $20 $40 6 1990+ 2000+ 1990+ 30% ALL CASES. Production from currently producing fields (Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk, Lisburne, Endicott, Milne Pt., and Cook Inlet) continues based on Alaska Department of Revenue projections for estimating petroleum revenues (Sept. 1987). State tax and royalty schedules are constant. The state share of federal royalties collected from production on federal lands [ANWR/OCS] is 50%. The OCS regions are the Beaufort Sea and the Bering Sea. CASES 1 & 2. At an oil price under $20 there is little economic incentive to explore, develop, and produce from new regions. Reductions in development costs and technological improvements could make expanded production in the Prudhoe Bay region, here represented by West Sak, economic in the distant future. CASES 3 & 4. At an oil price rising to $30 further development of known fields at Prudhoe Bay, represented by West Sak, is economically feasible and the construction of the TAGS gasline occurs beginning in 2003. Exploration occurs in frontier regions [ANWR/OCS] with some probability of a discovery large enough to justify development and production from these regions. CASES 5 & 6. At an oil price rising to $40 further development of known fields at Prudhoe Bay, represented by West Sak, is economically feasible sooner and the construction of the TAGS gasline occurs beginning in 1993. Extensive frontier exploration occurs [ANWR/OCS] and the higher price is more likely to justify production from discoveries. c-4 sO Figure C.1 ALASKA OIL PRODUCTION HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED BARRELS PER YEAR [MILLIONS] 800 600 , a a. + . : HISTORICAL * +. 400 KO 200 RROJEGTED ‘KN O pe ele ele SS ere SS leit aes =) = SSS lea SS Se SS Seri 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 CASE PROBABILITIE —— 80% —— 51% "12% ISER APA PROJECTIONS, JUNE 1988 99 Figure C.2 ALASKA PETROLEUM REVENUES (INCLUDES PERMANENT FUND CONTRIBUTIONS) BILLION 1987 $ $5 $4 HISTORICAL PROJECTED $3 $2 $1 $0 eet T 1 ee eee Cee ee te 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 PETROLEUM PRODUCTION CASE & PROBABILITY arn CAS Bil SO Oita OAS E12113 OS OASEIC 2) Oitimmml OAS EAN O® CASE 5: 7% CASE 6: 8% ISER APA PROJECTIONS, JUNE 1988 1987+ ONLY SEVERANCE TAX AND ROYALTIES FOR DESCRIPTION OF CASES REFER TO TEXT Lo Figure C.3 DIRECT PETROLEUM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT * HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED THOUSAND 15 HISTORICAL 10 r ea ees Se eae eae ae ee See ee eee eee O 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 HIGHEST AND LOWEST —— LOWEST ISER APA PROJECTIONS, JUNE 1988 CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT EXCLUDED 2006 CASES ONLY SHOWN ~ HIGHEST 2. FEDERAL CIVILIAN AND MILITARY EMPLOYMENT IMPORTANCE. This basic sector accounts for 40 thousand jobs--half of all basic sector employment and about 15% of all the jobs in the state. HISTORY. Active duty military employment trended downward sharply in the 1970s and stabilized at about 23 thousand in the mid-1980s. Civilian employment slowly trended upward in the 1960s and has held relatively constant since the mid 1970s. CASE 1. [PROBABILITY 70%] The number of active duty military personnel stationed in Alaska and not associated with the 6th Infantry Division (Light Infantry) deployment in Fairbanks remains constant at the current level consistent with a tightening of the Federal Military Budget. The Light Infantry Division is deployed, albeit slower than originally estimated. Federal civilian employment remains constant at the current level, consistent with tightening of the Federal Budget and the fact that a large percentage of these jobs are not population sensitive. CASE 2. [PROBABILITY 30%] The number of active duty military personnel stationed in Alaska and not associated with the 6th Infantry Division or Navy "“homeporting" grows at a 1 percent rate annually. This is consistent with the notion that the Pacific will become the focus for additional military strength through a realignment of forces even if total military strength does not increase. The light Infantry division is deployed, albeit slower than originally estimated. A Navy cruiser is "homeported" in Anchorage in the early 1990s. Federal civilian employment grows at a -5 percent rate annually, consistent with the trend in employment over the period since statehood. c-8 ANRUAL AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL INCREASE IM THOUSANDS Figure C.4 ALASKA FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS : + poe : : E + a 4 t L * a 1961 1866 1971 1976 1981 i986 i891 isss 2001 eoos SOURCE:AK DOL, US DOC, AND ISER o MIL = um °° crv Figure C.5 GROWTH IN ALASKA TOURIST VISITORS iee1 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 isss 2001 200s SOURCE: STATE OF ALASKA AND ISER Cc-9 3. TOURISM IMPORTANCE. In contrast to fishing and timber, each of which has a clearly delineated resource base defining its expansion potential, the tourism industry has an as yet undetermined constraint on its potential for continued rapid expansion, consistent with its historical pattern. We use the number of tourists as an index for total tourism activity and also as a proxy for expansion in all basic activities not elsewhere specified in the assumptions. HISTORY. The number of tourists (out of state visitors whose primary motivation is tourism) visiting the state annually has increased from less than 50 thousand shortly after statehood to 583 thousand in 1986. This trend is a reflection both of the growth of demand for tourist activities nationally and internationally, and of increased market penetration of Alaska into that market. The number of tourists serves as a proxy for the flow of dollars into the state from tourist activity, a variable for which historical information is unavailable. CASE 1. {PROBABILITY 75%] The number of tourists visiting the state grows 20 thousand each year. This is consistent with the increase in recent years and reflects some maturation in Alaska as a tourist destination. The number of tourists in 2000 in this case is 863 thousand and in 2010 is 1.063 million. This represents an increase of 480 thousand or 82% over 25 years, and also reflects a diminishing annual growth rate--falling from about 4 percent annually to less than 2 percent annually by 2010. CASE 2. [PROBABILITY 25%] The number of tourists visiting the state grows 40 thousand each year. This is consistent with aggressive growth of the Alaska tourism industry serving both domestic and international tourists, in conjunction with strong growth of worldwide demand for tourism activities. The number of tourists in 2000 is 1.103 million and in 2010 is 1.503 million. This represents an increase of 920 thousand or 158% over 25 years, and also reflects a diminishing annual growth rate--falling from about 8 percent annually to less than 3 percent annually by 2010. c-10 4, GROWTH RATE IN REAL WAGE RA Oo PURCHASING POWER IMPORTANCE. The average real wage rate is the primary determinant of purchasing power of the average Alaskan household. The size of the trade and service sectors of the economy, which account for 30% of all jobs, in turn depends upon the size of household income. When the real wage rate in Alaska is in balance with the real wage rate nationally (after adjusting for cost of living differences between Alaska and the rest of the U.S.), the trend in the growth of the Alaska real wage should closely follow that of the US HISTORY. Both the real annual wage rate in Alaska and nationally trended upward in the 1960s. Since the mid 1970s boom conditions in the Alaska economy have twice driven the real average annual wage up, only to have it fall as the boom passed. In contrast during this time the real annual wage rate in the U.S. was declining as a result of sluggish productivity growth and other factors. We expect the real annual wage rate in Alaska to continue to fall in 1987 and 1988 due to the continuation of the recession. This fall is helping to re-establish the balance between the Alaska and the U.S. real wage rates. CASE 1. [PROBABILITY 50%] After the recession adjustment, the private sector real annual wage rate in Alaska stays constant. This is consistent with the notion that productivity growth in the U.S. economy has permanently slowed since the 1950s and 1960s and/or that continued downward adjustments of the Alaska wage are necessary to bring them into equilibrium with the rest of the United States. CASE 2. [PROBABILITY 50%] After the recession adjustment, the real annual wage rate in Alaska grows at an average annual rate of 1%. This is consistent with current federal government projections of an increase in productivity for the national economy ranging between -7% and 1.5% annually. This case assumes that the productivity increases experienced in the US in the 1960s will return. By 2000 this growth adds an estimated 10 percent to average household purchasing power, and by 2010 it adds an estimated 20 percent. c-11 Figure C.6 ALASKA REAL AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE 1967 US $ 10607 Us § (Thousands) 1961 19668 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 zoos SOURCE: ISER Figure C.7 PERMANENT FUND:RATE OF RETURN BEAL REALIZED ANNUAL RATE » * » ry INFLATION ADJUSTED REALIZED RATE on 8 UP Bet @ oO C-12 5. REAL RATE OF RETURN ON THE PERMANENT FUND IMPORTANCE. At its current balance of approximately $8 billion, a 1% increase in the real annual average rate of return on the Permanent Fund adds $80 million in purchasing power to the economy. This is approximately equivalent to the impact of increasing the federal payroll (military + civilian) by 10%. HISTORY. The average annual realized real (inflation adjusted) rate of return on the Permanent Fund has been 5.2% over the 10 year life of the Fund. This performance exceeds the 3% targeted real rate of return in all but the first 4 years of the Fund history. CASE_1. [PROBABILITY 40%] The rate of return on the Permanent Fund is 3% annually after adjusting for inflation, consistent with the long run target established by the Fund management. CASE 2. [PROBABILITY 60%] The rate of return on the Permanent Fund is 4% annually after adjusting for inflation, consistent with a successful investment strategy and the historical performance of the Fund. c-13 6. POPULATION [HOUSEHOLDS] PER EMPLOYEE IMPORTANCE. Growth in population is determined by growth in employment opportunities. People migrate to Alaska when employment opportunities increase and leave the state when opportunities diminish. For load forecasting the number of households is more important than population and the specific number of households at any time consistent with a given level of employment will depend upon the average household size and the proportion of the working age population which is in the labor market--either employed or actively looking for work. We concentrate on this "labor force participation rate" to capture the impact of potential variation in the employee/ household relationship in future years. If average household size remains constant and the labor force participation rate falls 1 percent, approximately 3.5 thousand additional workers, plus their families, would need to migrate to Alaska to meet current labor demands. HISTORY. The average household size has fallen historically both in Alaska and nationally, and this trend has been accompanied by an increase in the labor force participation rate. Consequently, the ratio of employees per household in Alaska has been influenced by offsetting trends and has varied between 1.6 in 1960 and 1.7 in 1970 and 1980. The Alaska labor force participation rate (proportion of people aged 16-64 working or looking for work) has been above the national average since the early 1970s and has, like the national rate, continued to trend upward. The Alaska rate is currently approximately 73% compared to 65% for the nation as a whole. Recent projections by the Federal Government show a continued increase in the rate for the nation to 68% by the year 2000. This increase results from a combination of an increase in the rate for women and a slight decline for men. CASE 1. [PROBABILITY 70%] The labor force participation rate plateaus at 72% in Alaska. Since we assume the average household size continues to fall very gradually, the employee/household ratio stays relatively constant. CASE 2. [PROBABILITY 30%] The labor force participation rate gradually falls toward the national average as the population ages and employment opportunities disappear. The rate falls to 69% in 2010. Since we assume the average household size continues to fall gradually, the employee/household ratio falls slowly in this case. c-14 NOTE CONCERNING THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE ASSUMPTION (This note was not a part of the original memorandum) In preliminary projections, the values for the labor force participation rate described in this memorandum proved to be inconsistent with initial simulation values for the labor force participation rate and with other important variables--specifically population, employment, and unemployment. The relatively small amount of population loss in the state in the last two years compared to the job loss implies that the labor force participation rate in 1987 was actually about 69 percent, compared to the 72 percent presented in the memorandum. Furthermore, the long-run implication of a 69 percent labor’ force participation rate combined with the assumption of a continued decline in the average household size meant that the average number of employed persons per household was falling. Since national data suggest that this ratio has been very stable historically, the decision was made to adjust the values for the labor force participation rate for use in the projections to be consistent with the most recent historical experience and other demographic variables. The probabilities are unchanged. The values for the labor force participation rate used in the projections are as follows: CASE 1. [PROBABILITY 70%] The labor force participation rate continues to increase, consistent with the trend nationally. It increases from 69 percent to 73 percent and results in a modest increase in the employee/household ratio. CASE 2. (PROBABILITY 30%] The labor force participation rate increases more slowly, from 69 percent to 71 percent. The employee/ household ratio remains constant. c-15 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE PREEERaEE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE Figure C.8 Part A. Original Assumptions ALASKA LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE PERCENTAGE [MILITARY INCLUDED] TT 2 " 1961 1968 1972 ig7e 1961 i986 1901 1906 2001 E008 Part B. Revised Assumptions ALASKA LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE PERCENTAGE [MILITARY INCLUDED] _ | = Pr ane a — a r ont —P ET [ | ane }—_|__| a i1ee1 1906 1971 1976 1961 1966 1981 1906 ‘5001 2906 iii. Petroleum Revenue Model: High Production Case Illustration FISCAL YEAR 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 - PETAS.S PETA6.S PROJECTED PETROLEUM REVENUES: WEST SAK 1990+ HIGH PRODUCTION AND THREE PRICE LEVELS ANWR/OCS 2000+ 1 9 e 6 2 b) & 4 Ss s 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 PRUD- KUP- LIS- ENDI- WEST OTHER TOTAL TOTAL (¢ HOE ARUK BURNE COTT MILNE SAK N.S. 100 9 0 e 0 0 678 0 0 695 100 18 16 0 0 0 694 0 0 707 558 9% 21 36 3 0 0 712 0 0 723 544 92 29 36 4 0 0 705 0 0 714 507 88 35 36 5 0 0 671 0 0 678 454 78 36 36 S 0 20 629 0 0 635 417 69 40 36 5 0 36 603 0 0 608 403 65 48 28 a 50 36 635 0 0 640 353 58 47 23 = 75 36 597 0 0 601 309 53 46 18 4 100 40 570 0 0 574 323 44 45 14 4 150 40 620 0 0 623 281 39 44 11 3 150 68 596 0 0 599 244 34 43 9 3 150 88 571 0 0 574 215 30 41 7 2 150 96 541 50 0 594 189 26 40 5 4 150 92 503 100 0 606 170 20 37 3 4 150 88 469 150 0 622 149 16 34 1 0 150 84 434 200 0 636 129.2 12.5 30.0 1 0 150 80 403 200 0 605 111.1 9.7 25.9 1 0 150 76 374 200 0 576 94.8 7.3 21.9 f 0 150 72 347 200 0 549 80.2 5.4 18.1 1 0 150 68 323 200 0 525 67.4 4.0 14.6 1 0 150 64 301 200 0 503 56.1 2.8 11.6 1 0 150 60 282 200 0 484 46.4 2.0 8.9 1 0 150 56 264 200 0 465 COOK INLET AND NORTH SLOPE PRODUCTION THRU 2003 BASED ON ALASKA DEPT. OF REVENUE SEPTEMBER 1987 PETROLEUM REVENUE REPORT. SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTION FROM THESE FIELDS IS BASED ON THE TREND 1994-2003. PRUDHOE, KUPARUK, AND LISBURNE DETERMINED BY REGRESSION ANALYSIS. OTHERS ARE AUTHOR'S ESTIMATE. ANWR PRODUCTION BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM US DEPT OF INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN RESOURCE ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT OF THE ARCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, ALASKA WEST SAK PRODUCTION BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM AK DEPT OF NATURAL RESOURCES RESERVE ESTIMATES AND ISER “AK PETROLEUM REVENUES: THE INFLUENCE OF FEDERAL POLICY" COOK INLET GAS PRODUCTION THRU 2003 BASED ON ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE SEPTEMBER 1987 PETROLEUM REVENUE REPORT. CONSTANT THEREAFTER. OTHER NORTH SLOPE INCLUDES GWYDYR BAY,SEAL ISLAND AND FLAXMAN ISLAND. ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK C-17 176 :WORLD OIL PRICE :SAUDI MEDIUM FOB :GULF [DOR MARKER LOW CONS LOW 183 : 189 : 196 : 203 209 216 223 229 NOT USED IN THIS ANALYSIS 236 : 243 249 256 263 269 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 10-Jun-88 PAGE 1 % OF WEST :SHIPPING CHARGE : : IN 1987 :WORLD OIL PRICE IN 1987 $ :WORLD OIL PRICE IN 1987$ : : PERSIAN:SAUDI LIGHT DELIVERED zANS CRUDE DELIVERED : ALASKA COAST : IN 1987 $ : : CRUDE] :TO US GULF COAST :TO US GULF COAST : SALES PRICE s22s=-eece=oR-eo- 2 PIPEL FISCAL : : : :0N WEST DISCOUNT : GULF- WEST- : TARI YEAR : ENSUS 3 LOW CONSENSUS : LOW CONSENSUS : COAST 1987 $ =: COAST/ COAST/ :--------- : BASE : LOW BASE : LOW BASE : :VALDEZ VALDEZ :NOMINALS 1987 : : : $ : : 1988 : 3 $ 3 3 : $3.60 1989 : 3 : $ 3 : $3.05 1990 : : $14.00 $18.00 $20.00: $13.00 $17.00 $19.00 : 60% ($1.50): $3.00 $1.00: $2.40 1991 : : $14.40 $18.60 $21.00 : $13.40 $17.60 $20.00 : 62% ($1.45): $3.00 $1.00: $2.40 1992: : $14.80 $19.20 $22.00 : $13.80 $18.20 $21.00 : 64% ($1.40): $3.00 $1.00: $2.65 1993 : : $15.20 $19.80 $23.00 : $14.20 $18.80 $22.00 : 66% ($1.35): $3.00 $1.00: $2.70 1994 : : $15.60 $20.40 $24.00: $14.60 $19.40 $23.00: 68% ($1.30): $3.00 $1.00: $2.70 1995 : : $16.00 $21.00 $25.00 : $15.00 $20.00 $24.00 : 70% ($1.25): $3.00 $1.00: $2.70 1996 : : $16.40 $21.60 $26.00 : $15.40 $20.60 $25.00 : 72% ($1.20): $3.00 $1.00: $2.60 1997 : : $16.80 $22.20 $27.00 : $15.80 $21.20 $26.00 : 74% ($1.15): $3.00 $1.00: $2.40 1998 : : $17.20 $22.80 $28.00 : $16.20 $21.80 $27.00 : 76% ($1.10): $3.00 $1.00: $2.20 1999 : : $17.60 $23.40 $29.00 : $16.60 $22.40 $28.00 : 78% ($1.05): $3.00 $1.00: $2.40 2000 : : $18.00 $24.00 $30.00 : $17.00 $23.00 $29.00 : 80% ($1.00): $3.00 $1.00: $2.50 2001 : : $18.20 $24.60 $31.00 : $17.20 $23.60 $30.00 : 82% ($0.95): $3.00 $1.00: $2.70 2002 : : $18.40 $25.20 $32.00 : $17.40 $24.20 $31.00 : 84% ($0.90): $3.00 $1.00: $2.90 2003 : : $18.60 $25.80 $33.00 : $17.60 $24.80 $32.00 : 86% ($0.85): $3.00 $1.00: $3.10 2004 : : $18.80 $26.40 $34.00 : $17.80 $25.40 $33.00: 88% ($0.80): $3.00 $1.00: $3.40 2005 : : $19.00 $27.00 $35.00 : $18.00 $26.00 $34.00 : 90% ($0.75): $3.00 $1.00: $3.70 2006 : : $19.20 $27.60 $36.00 : $18.20 $26.60 $35.00: 92% ($0.70): $3.00 $1.00: $4.10 2007 : : $19.40 $28.20 $37.00 : $18.40 $27.20 $36.00: 94% ($0.65): $3.00 $1.00: $4.60 2008 : : $19.60 $28.80 $38.00 : $18.60 $27.80 $37.00: 96% ($0.60): $3.00 $1.00: $5.20 2009 : : $19.80 $29.40 $39.00 : $18.80 $28.40 $38.00: 98% ($0.55): $3.00 $1.00: $5.90 2010 ¢ : $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 : $19.00 $29.00 $39.00 : 100% ($0.50): $3.00 $1.00: $6.80 : sesssessssszss: PETAS.S 1 SAUDI LIGHT PRICES FROM ICF--"QUTLOOKS FOR WORLD OIL PRICES", FEB. 1988. PETA6.S 2 ANS CRUDE QUALITY DIFFERENTIAL FROM ICF REPORT. ($1.00) 3 DISTRIBUTION OF ANS CRUDE SALES BETWEEN GULF AND WEST COASTS. BASED ON CONVERSATIONS WITH AK DEPT OF REVENUE [ADOR] PERSONNEL. 4 WEST COAST PRICE DISCOUNT BASED ON DATA REPORTED TO THE ADOR BY ANS PRODUCERS. 5 AVERAGE TANKER COST BASED ON DATA REPORTED TO THE ADOR BY ANS PRODUCERS. 6 PIPELINE TARIFF BASED ON CONVERSATIONS WITH ADOR PERSONNEL. 7 INFLATION ASSUMPTION: 5.00% 8 AVERAGE TARIFF TO PUMP STATION #1 BASED ON CONVERSATIONS WITH ADOR PERSONNEL. 9 ECONOMIC LIMIT FACTOR BASED ON CONVERSATIONS WITH ADOR PERSONNEL. ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK 10-Jun-88 PAGE 4 C-18 1997 : 1998 1999 : 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 «: PETAS.S PETA6.S AVERAGE : REALS $3.43 $2.77 $2.07 $1.97 $2.08 $2.01 $1.92 $1.83 $1.68 $1.47 $1.29 $1.34 $1.33 $1.36 $1.39 $1.42 $1.48 $1.54 $1.62 $1.73 $1.87 $2.02 $2.21 TARIFF REALS $0.25 : $0.27 : $0.29 : $0.31 : $0.33 : $0.35 : $0.37 : $0.39 : $0.41 $0.43 $0.45 $0.47 $0.49 $0.51 $0.53 $0.55 $0.57 $0.59 $0.61 : $0.63 $0.65 ANS CRUDE AVERAGE WELLHEAD 1987 $ $7.98 $8.50 $8.82 $9.30 $9.83 $10.35 $10.93 $11.57 $12.19 $12.57 $13.02 $13.23 $13.44 $13.66 $13.84 $14.04 $14.20 $14.35 $14.47 $14.57 $14.64 ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK PRICE CONSENSUS LOW BASE $11.98 $12.70 $13.22 $13.90 $14.63 $15.35 $16.13 $16.97 $17.79 $18.37 $19.02 $19.63 $20.24 $20.86 $21.44 $22.04 $22.60 $23.15 $23.67 $24.17 $24.64 $13.98 $15.10 : $16.02 : $17.10 $18.23 $19.35 $20.53 $21.77 : $22.99 : $23.97 : $25.02 : $26.03 : $27.04 : $28.06 : $29.04 : $30.04 $31.00 $31.95 $32.87 : $33.77 : $34.64 : ANS CRUDE AVERAGE WELLHEAD PRICE NOMINAL $ LOW $9.23 $10.33 $11.25 $12.47 $13.83 $15.29 $16.96 $18.84 $20.85 $22.58 $24.56 $26.19 $27.94 $29.82 $31.73 $33.78 $35.89 $38.06 $40.31 $42.63 $44.96 Cc-19 CONSENSUS LOW $13.86 $15.43 $16.87 $18.63 $20.58 $22.68 $25.02 $27.64 $30.42 $33.00 $35.87 $38.86 $42.08 $45.53 $49.15 $53.04 $57.12 $61.41 $65.94 $70.72 $75.67 BASE : PRUDHOE % OF ANS 77.16% 75.56% 72.18% 69.15% 63.46% 59.13% 54.21% 52.10% 47.15% 42.73% 39.74% 37.57% 36.25% 34.33% 32.08% 29.73% 27.32% 24.86% 22.39% 19.93% 17.54% AVER LIM FACT! cooeoaoaaoca eo eooaoaaoe co AGE : TOTAL ECONOMIC : IT ‘OR O29: -87 : +84: at) ile ees 75 3 -fel\s 69 : -66 : bas): ° a ° w aor is 54: ool: +48: “45: 42: 239 36 35 2 : SEVERANCE TAXES 10-Jun-88 PAGE 3 : VENUE FROM PRODUCTION ON NORTH SLOPE STATE LAND:ALASKA REVENUE FROM PRODUCTION ON NORTH SLOPE STATE LAND: : (1987 $] 3 CONSENSUS LOW [NOMINAL $] : CONSENSUS LOW FISCAL 3 --scceeo= cece ceo necnceecees -oee score reo nc nee : YEAR: SEVERANCE : ROYALTIES TAXES ROYALTIES 1987 : 1988 : 1989 : 1990 : $814 $962 $1,222 1991 : $866 $985 $1,294 1992 :: $885 : $975 $1,326 : 1993 : $940 : $995 $1,404: 1994 : $1,098 : $1,115 $1,634 : 1995 : $1,141 < — 3 “ ¢ o S N 1996 : $1,208 : $1,123 $1,783 : 1997 : $1,460 : $1,293 $2,142 : 1998 : $1,553 : $1,309 $2,267 1999 2000 : 2001: $1,647: $1,219 $2,443 2002: $1,638 s 2. & ” ~ S o N 2003 : $1,617: $1,102 $2,470 : 2006 : $1,597: $1,039 $2,474 : 2005 : $1,578 : $975 $2,477 : 2006 : $1,557 $910 $2,477 2007 : =$1,536 : $845 $2,478 2008: $1,516 : $781 $2,480 : 2009 : $1,500 : $719 $2,488 : 2010.: $1,485 : $656 $2,500 : CONSENSUS BASE SEVERANCE TAXES LOW : SEVERANCE ROYALTIES: $1,426 : $1,539 : $1,607 : $1,728 : $2,036 : $2,133 : $2,269 : $2,748 : $2,929 : $3,073 : $3,191 : $3,240 : $3,295 ..5 $3,323 : $3,351. = $3,376 $3,398 : $3,419 : $3,445 : $3,477 : $3,514 : TAXES ROYALTIES $703 : $713 $693 $701 : $780 : $772 : $779 $896 $908 : SEVERANCE TAXES ROYALTIES CONSENSUS BASE SEVERANCE : TAXES ROYALTIES: $970 $1,232 $964 $1,266 $926 $1,259 $888 $1,692 $816 $1,636 $749 $1,585 $679 $1,522 $614 $1,462 $440 $1,289 $389 $1,236 $343 $1,188 $300 $1,144 PETAS.S PETA6.S ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK C-20 10-Jun-88 PAGE I ALASKA REVENUE FROM PRODUCTION ON ANWR AND OCS TRACTS :ALASKA REVENUE FROM PRODUCTION ON ANWR AND OCS (1987 $) [NOMINAL $] LOW CONSENSUS LOW CONSENSUS BASE : LOW CONSENSUS LOW CONSENS FISCAL, .) SoecessssecceerMapes! sesgree perenne sess. Sseseessnayes==— seen ag See eee aS ae +a almnn a YEAR : SEVERANCE SEVERANCE SEVERANCE : SEVERANCE SEVERANCE SEVERANCE : TAXES ROYALTIES TAXES ROYALTIES TAXES ROYALTIES: TAXES ROYALTIES TAXES ROYALTIES TAXES } Seeesesessssssess5;s=2=2===2: Seasesessssssec=: 1987 : : 3 3 s 1988 : 3 3 : : - 1989 : : 3 : : 2 1990 : $0 $0: $0 sO: $0 so: $0: $0 $0: $0 1991 : $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 $0: so $0: $0 $0: $0 1994 2 so $0: $0 $0: $0 so: $0: $0 $0: $0 1993 $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 $o : $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 1994 : $0 $0: so $0: $0 $0: $0 $0 : $0 $0: $0 1995 : $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 1996 : $0 $0: so $0: $0 $0: $0 $0 : $0 $0: $0 1997 : $0 $0: $o $0: so $0: so $0: $0 $0: $0 1998 : $0 $0: so $0: $o $0: so $0: $0 $0: $0 1999 : $0 $0: $o $0: $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 $0: $0 2000 : $0 $77: $o $112 : $0 $147 : $0 $41: $0 $59 : $0 2001 : $0 $164 : $o $243 : $0 $322 : $0 $83 : $0 $123 : $0 2002 : $0 $262 : $0 $394 : $0 $527 : $0 $126 : $0 $190 : $0 2003 : $0 $373 : so $569 : $0 $766 : $0 $171: $0 $261 : $0 2004 : $0 $397 : so $614 : $0 $832 : $0 $173 : $0 $268 : $0 2005 : $0 $422 : so $663 : $0 $904 : $0 SW5 = $0 $275 : $0 2006 : $0 $449 : so $714: $0 $979 : $0 $178 : $0 $283 : $0 2007 : $o $476 : so $768 : $0 $1,060 : $0 $179 : $0 $289 : $0 2008 : $0 $504 : $0 $824 : $0 $1,145 : $0 $181 : $0 $296 : $0 2009 : $0 $533: $0 $884 : $0 $1,235 : $0 $182 : $0 $302 : $0 2010 = $0 $562 : $0 $946 : $0 $1,330: $0 $183 : $0 $308 : $0 PETAS.S 1 NO SEVERANCE TAX COLLECTED ON PRODUCTION FROM FEDERAL PROPERTY. PETA6.S 2 FEDERAL ROYALTIES SHARED WITH THE STATE IN THE FOLLOWING PERCENTAGE 0.5 3 FEDERAL ROYALTIES ASSUMED TO BE 12.5% OF WELLHEAD VALUE. 4 WELLHEAD VALUE FOR THESE REVENUE CALCULATIONS OF ANWR IS ASSUMED TO BE THE NORTH SLOPE AVERAGE. ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK 10-Jun-88 PAGE 5 C-21 : TRACTS TOTAL ALASKA REVENUE FROM PETROLEUM PRODUCTION 3 TOTAL ALASKA REVENUE FROM PETROLE s 33 (NOMINAL $] 33 (1987 $] : US BASE LOW CONSENSUS LOW CONSENSUS BASE LOW CONSENSUS LOW FISCAL : : YEAR 3 2: SEVERANCE SEVERANCE SEVERANCE 2: SEVERANCE SEVERANCE : ROYALTIES:: TAXES ROYALTIES TAXES ROYALTIES TAXES ROYALTIES:: TAXES ROYALTIES TAXES ROYALTIES : ssssasss=== 1987 : es $640 $593 : 1988 : 83 $800 $970 : 1989 : 33 $750 $950 1990 : $0 $659 $851 1991 : $0 :: $678 $905 : 1992 : $0 :: $671 $927 : : 1993 : $0 $688 $984 : 1994 : $0 :: $772 $1,145 Ee 1995 : $0 :: $774 = $1,191 : : 1996 : $0 :: $789 $1,274 : : 1997 :: $0 :: $911 $1,531 : $1,323 $2,213 : $1,689 $2,819 :: $560 $940 : $812 $1,358 1998 : $0 :: $932 $1,633 : $1,344 $2,347: $1,727 $3,009 :: $545 $955 : $786 =$1,372 : 1999 : $0 :: $928 $1,701 : $1,337 $2,444 : $1,733 $3,162 :: $516 $947 : $745 $1,361 : 2000 : $78 $913 $1,833 $1,315 $2,633 : $1,716 $3,433 :: $484 $972 : $697 $1,396 2001 : $163 $864 $1,913 : $1,262 $2,789 : $1,659 $3,665 :: $437 $966 : $637 = $1,409 2002 : $253 :: $820 $2,010 : $1,212 $2,971: $1,603 $3,932 :: $394 $967 : $583 $1,429 2003 : $351 :: $771 $2,108 : $1,151 $3,157: $1,532 $4,206 :: $353 $966 : $527 $1,446 2004 : $363 :: $723 $2,120 : $1,091 $3,214 : $1,459 $4,309 :: $315 $925 : $476 $1,402 2005 : $375 :: $676 =$2,134 : $1,030 $3,274 : $1,384 $4,414 :: $281 $887 : $428 $1,360 : 2006 : $388 :: $630 $2,147 : $968 $3,333 : $1,307 $4,519 :: $249 $850 : $383 $1,319 : 2007 : $399 :: $585 $2,161: $906 $3,395 : $1,228 $4,629 :: $220 $815 : $342 $1,280 : 2008 : $411 :: $542 $2,178 : $845 $3,463 : $1,149 $4,747 :: $194 $782 : $303 $1,243 : 2009 : $422 :: $500 $2,199 : $786 $3,538 : $1,071 $4,878 :: $171 $752 : $269 $1,210: 2010 :: $433 $460 $2,221 $726 $3,620 $993 $5,018 :: $150 $723 : $236 = $1,178 PETAS.S 1 1988 VALUES FOR NOMINAL REVENUES TAKEN FROM PETA6.S SEPTEMBER 1987 AK DEPT OF REVENUE PETROLEUM REVENUES PROJECTIONS. ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK 10-Jun-88 PAGE é C-22 : UM PRODUCTION : COOK INLET GAS REVENUES :COOK INLET GAS REVENUES TOTAL ALASKA REVENUE f 3 (NOMINAL $] : (1987 $] 3 (1987 $] FISCAL : : LOW CON LOW CONSENSUS YEAR =: SEVERANCE : SEVERANCE TOTAL PER :SEVERANCE 3 : TAXES ROYALTIES: TAXES ROYALTIES MCF =: TAXES ROYALTIES : { Sessmsssssssssssss; sassassessassssseesesss===: 1987 : $640 $593 : $9 $15 $24 3 1988 : $762 $924: $13 $31 $44 $0.25 : $1,686 $1,686 $1,686 1989 : $907 $1,138 : $16 $35 $51 $0.28 : $1,542 $1,859 $2,045 1990 : $986 = $1,264 : $18 $37 $55 $0.29 : $16 $32 : $1,304 $1,934 $2,249 1991 : $980 $1,298 : $19 $39 $58 $0.30 : $16 $32 : $1,303 $1,923 $2,278 1992 : $942 $1,292 : $21 $42 $63 $0.31 : $16 $33 : $1,252 $1,852 $2,234 1993 : $930 $1,322 : $22 $44 $66 $0.32 : $16 $33 : $1,248 $1,840 $2,252 1994 : $1,004 $1,480 : $23 $47 $70 $0.32 : $16 $33 : $1,362 $2,003 $2,484 1995 : $964 $1,478 : $25 $50 $75 $0.34 : $17 $34 : $1,330 $1,948 $2,442 1996 : $940 $1,505 : $28 $66 $94 $0.41 : $18 $43 : $1,330 $1,934 $2,445 1997 : $1,037 $1,730: $30 $71 $101 $0.43 : $18 $44 : $1,500 $2,171 $2,767 1998 : $1,009 $1,759 : $35 $80 $115 $0.47 : $20 $47 : $1,500 $2,158 $2,769 1999 : $965 $1,761 : $39 $89 $128 $0.51 : $22 $50 2: $1,464 $2,106 $2,726 2000 : $910 $1,821 : $41 $95 $136 $0.53 : $22 $50 : $1,456 $2,094 $2,731 2001 : $838 $1,851 : $43 $103 $146 $0.56 : $22 $52 : $1,403 $2,046 $2,689 2002 : $771 $1,892 : $46 $110 $156 $0.58 : $22 $53 : $1,361 $2,012 $2,663 2003 : $702 $1,927 : $49 $118 $167 $0.61 : $22 $54 : $1,319 $1,974 $2,629 2004 : $637 = $1,880 : $52 $126 $178 $0.64 : $23 $55 : $1,240 $1,878 $2,516 2005 : $575 $1,834 : $55 $134 $189 $0.68 : $23 $56 : $1,168 $1,788 $2,409 2006 : $517 $1,788 : $58 $142 $200 $0.72 : $23 $56 : $1,099 $1,702 $2,305 2007 : $463 $1,745 : $61 $150 $211 $0.76 : $23 $57 : $1,035 $1,621 $2,207 2008 : $412 $1,704: $64 $158 $222 $0.80 : $23 $57 3 $976 «$1,546 $2,116 2009 : $366 $1,667 : $67 $166 $233 $0.84 : $23 $57 3 $923 $1,478 $2,033 2010 :: $323. $1,634 : $70 $174 $244 3 $873 $1,415 $1,957 : EEE: saeezezese=: PETAS.S 1 COOK INLET GAS REVENUES THRU 2003 FROM AK DEPT PETA6.S OF REVENUE , SEPTEMBER 1987. SUBSEQUENT ESTIMATES ARE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS OF $3 ANNUALLY FOR SEVERANCE TAXES AND $8 FOR ROYALTIES 2 REVENUES FROM COOK INLET GAS ARE CONSTANT AMONG THE THREE OIL PRICE SCENARIOS ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK 10-Jun-88 PAGE 7 C-23 : ROM PETROLEUM PRODUCTION [NOMINAL $] FISCAL : LOW CON LOW CONSENSUS: YEAR 3 ; ———————— ; 1987 : $1,233 $1,233 $1,233 : 1988: : $1,770 $1,770 $1,770: 1989 : : $1,700 $2,050 $2,255 : $1,510 $2,239 $2,604 : $1,584 $2,338 $2,769: $1,598 $2,364 $2,852: $1,672 $2,466 $3,018 : $1,917 $2,819 $3,495 : $1,965 $2,878 $3,608 : $2,063 $3,000 $3,793 : $2,443 $3,536 $4,508 : $2,565 $3,690 $4,736: $2,628 $3,782 $4,895 : $2,745 $3,948 $5,150 : $2,778 $4,051 $5,324 : $2,830 $4,183 $5,536: : $2,879 $4,309 $5,738 2004: : $2,842 $4,305 $5,768 2005 : : $2,810 $4,304 $5,798: 2006: : $2,777 $4,302 $5,826: 2007: : $2,746 $4,302 $5,857 : 2008: : $2,720 $4,308 $5,896 : 2009: : $2,699 $4,326 $5,948 : 2010 1: $2,681 $4,346 $6,011 : ot lusuueuunussusenesussarerenn: PETAS.S PETA6.S ISER PETROLEUM REVENUE MODEL :PETBUCK 10-Jun-88 PAGE 8 C-24 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 APPENDIX D CORE ASSUMPTIONS These assumptions are used in all of the economic and demographic projections Institute of Social and Economic Research 1988 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY RAILBELT ELECTRICITY DEMAND STUDY CORE ASSUMPTIONS USED IN ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS A. PETROLEUM PRICE ASSUMPTIONS 1. Average Expected OPEC Price B. INDUSTRY ASSUMPTIONS 1. Trans-Alaska Pipeline 2. North Slope Petroleum Development and Production 3. ANWR/OCS 4. Upper Cook Inlet-- Petroleum Production 5. Oil Industry Headquarters 6. TAGS Pipeline Varies among projections. Operating employment remains constant at 885 through 2010 with 390 at headquarters in Anchorage and the remainder along the pipeline corridor. [Source: personal communica- tion with Alyeska Pipeline Company] (TAP.S86X). Varies among projections. Varies among projections. Employment in exploration and development of oil and gas in the Upper Cook Inlet area declines gradually (1 percent annually) as the major oil fields are depleted (UPC.S88). Varies among projections. Varies among projections. NOTE: Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for MAP Model SCEN_ case files, and codes in brackets indicate MAP variable names. 7. Beluga Coal Production 8. U.S. Borax o; 10. de 2 135 Greens Creek Mine Red Dog Mine Other Mining Activity Agriculture Logging and Sawmills D-2 Institute of Social and Economic Research Development of a 3.5 million ton/year mine for export beginning in 1992 results in employment of 375 in 1994 and beyond (BCL.S87-2). The U.S. Borax molybdenum mine near Ketchikan is brought into production in 1995. Operating employment is initially 685 and grows to 1,020 over the next 15 years. [Source: USDA Forest Service, Draft EIS, personal communication with U.S. Forest Service & U.S. Borax personnel] (BXM.F84-6) . Production from the Greens Creek Mine on Admiralty Island begins at the end of 1988. Employment in the mine is constant at 200 through 2010. [Source: personal communica- tion, Greens Creek Mining Company] (GCM.S88). The Red Dog Mine in the Western Brooks Range begins operation in 1991 with production employment of 393 rising to 428 (RED.S88). Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases from 600 in 1987 by 3 percent annually (OMN.S88) . Employment in agriculture grows at 1 percent annually from a base of 500 in 1987 (AGR.S88). Logging for export by Native corporations, primarily in the Southeast, increases employment to 2,300 by 1991. It subse- quently declines at 1% annually due to productivity gains (FML.S88). La. 15. 16. 17. 18. LOE 20° a. ra 23. Pulp Mills Commercial Fish Harvesting-- Nonbottomfish Commercial Fish Processing-- Nonbottomfish Commercial Fishing-- Bottomfish Federal Military Employment Light Infantry Army Division Deployment Navy Cruiser Homeporting Federal Civilian Employment Tourism State Electric Projects D-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research After 1991 employment in the Southeast declines at a rate of 1 percent per year because of productivity gains. Small-scale processing activities commence in Southcentral in 1992 (FMP.S88). Employment levels in tradi- tional fisheries harvest remain constant at 8,200 through 2010 (SFH.S88). Employment in processing of traditional fisheries harvest increases to 7,500 and then remains constant (SFP.S88). The total U.S. bottomfish catch expands to allowable catch. Onshore processing is centered in the Aleutians and Kodiak with additional activity in Anchorage, Kenai Peninsula, and Bristol Bay (SBO.S88). Varies among projections. A new Army division is deployed to Fairbanks and Anchorage beginning in 1986, augmenting active-duty personnel by 3,000 in 1989 and 3,400 by 1992. [Source: personal communica- tion, Fort Richardson Office of Public Affairs] (GFM.S88) Varies among projections. Varies among projections. Varies among projections. Construction employment from Alaska Power Authority projects includes Bradley Lake (SHP.B86-2). Gr FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS C.1. Revenues 1. Severance Taxes [RPTS ] 2. Royalties [RPRY] 3. Bonuses [RPBS] 4. Property Taxes [RPPS] 5. Petroleum Corporate Income Tax [RTCSPX] 6. Rents [RPEN] 7. Miscellaneous Petroleum Revenues [RP9X] 8. Federal-State Petroleum-Related Shared Revenues [RSFDNPX] D-4 Institute of Social and Economic Research No changes from current tax structure. Current royalty structure continues. These revenues are distributed between the General Fund and Permanent Fund. Alaska receives $500 million over the period FY 1989 to 1992 in settlement of disputed offshore leases in the Beaufort Sea. Also treated as bonuses are $500 million received between 1991 and 1995 in settlement of lawsuits and tax disputes regarding the valuation of North Slope oil. These revenues are distributed between the General Fund and Permanent Fund. Based on projections published by Alaska Department of Revenue, Revenue Sources (DORS7.50) augmented by taxes on onshore facilities related to OCS development. (See OCS case.) Based on projections published by Alaska Department of Revenue, Revenue Sources (DORS7.50). No change in tax regulations. Constant in real terms at current level of $8 million. Zero. Increasing $1 million annually from current level of $25 million. ce LO A, 2s Personal Income Tax [EXPIT] Large Project Corporate Income Taxes [RTCSX] Miscellaneous Local Revenue Sources [RLTX] [RLPTX] [RLTFPX] New Federal-State Shared Revenues [RSFDNX] C.2, State Appropriations 13. 14. ids 16. Aggregate Appropriations [EXWIND] Capital/Operations Split [EXSPLITX] General Obligation Bonds Federal Grants-in- Aid for Capital Expenditures [RSFDNCAX ] D-5 Institute of Social and Economic Research Reimposed at previous level when state appropriations fall below the FY 1988 level in real terms. The income tax is reimposed prior to elimination of the Permanent Fund dividend but only after Permanent Fund earnings have been appropriated to the general fund. Zero. Miscellaneous state-local transfers, large project property taxes, petroleum- related federal transfers all set to zero. Zero. Annual appropriation equals current revenues plus 50 percent of general fund balance available for appropriations. Dependent upon revenue availability. Bond sales for capital expenditures occur at a rate which maintains annual debt service payments at a level no greater than 5 percent of current state revenues. Constant at $75 million. Ave 18. 19, 20. 2. State Loan Programs [EXKTR1X] [EXLOAN2 ] [EXCPSR1] Municipal Capital Grants [RLTMCAP] State-Local Revenue Sharing [RLTRS] State-Local Municipal Assistance [RLTMA] Permanent Fund/Other Appropriations in Excess of Spending Limit [EXGFOPSX] [EXSPCAP] C.3. Permanent Fund 22). & 24. Permanent Fund Principal [EXKPF1] Permanent Fund Dividend [EXPFDIST] Permanent Fund Earnings [EXPFTOGF ] D-6 Institute of Social and Economic Research Appropriations from the general fund for program capitalization terminated after FY 1987. Programs continue functioning on existing capitalization including AHFC and APA revenue bond expenditures. Funding terminated after FY 1987. Continuation proportional to total state expenditures. Continuation proportional to total state expenditures. Special capital appropriation in FY 1989 and 1990 as a counter-cyclical measure. Deposits from petroleum revenues continue at current rates. Continued at the rate of 50 percent of earnings averaged over the previous 5 years until revenues from all other sources, including reimposition of the personal income tax, are insufficient to maintain state appropriations at real 1988 level. When that milestone is reached, the dividend is phased Out. After payment of the dividend, the remaining Fund earnings are added to the Permanent Fund--inflation proofing and undistributed income. When state appropriations begin to fall below the real 1988 level and before the personal income tax is reimposed, these annual earnings are appropriated to the general fund to maintain the 1988 level. 25. Real Rate of Return {RORPF] C.4, Miscellaneous 26. State-Local Wage Rates [EXWR] . NATIONAL VARIABLE ASSUMPTIONS 1. U.S. Inflation Rate [GRUSCPI] 2. Real Average Weekly Earnings [GRRWEUS ]} 3. Real Per Capita Income [GRDIRPU] 4. Unemployment Rate [UUS] . REGIONAL ASSUMPTIONS 1. Population 2. Employment DEMOGRAPHICS 1. Labor Force Participation Rate [LAFPRT1] D-7 Institute of Social and Economic Research Varies among projections. Nominal wage rate is held constant in early 1990s dependent upon revenue availability. Consumer prices rise at an annual rate of 3.6% in 1987, 4% in 1988, and 5% in 1989 and thereafter. Varies among projections. Growth in real per capita income averages .5 percent annually in excess of average weekly earnings. Long-run rate of 6.5 percent. Regional population growth allocated on the basis of employment growth. No significant shifts in the location of support industries. Varies among projections. D-8 Institute of Social and Economic Research ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALASKA RAILBELT: 1988-2010 APPENDIX E WRITTEN COMMENTS ON DRAFT REPORT PO. Box V State Capitol Juneau, Alaska 99811 Phone: (907) 465-3114 Senate Advisory Council MEMORANDUM TO: Richard Emerman Senior Economist Alaska Power Authority FROM: Kurt S. Dzinich X Senior Advisor Senate Advisory Council DATE: July 15, 1988 SUBJECT: Economic & Demographic Projections for the Alaska Railbelt: 1988- 2010 Based on a review of the subject draft report by ISER, following comments are offered. I believe that this is an excellent report. While the methodology is sound and appropriate to the task, and while the critical assumptions and most of the scenarios and probabilities seem reasonable, there is an exception. This exception deals with the probabilities assigned by the APA Board to the oil price scenarios. These were as follows: OIL PRICE SCENARIO APA BOARD Low 60% Consensus Low 30% Consensus 10% The implication of this forecast is that the probability of world oil price being $30 (1987$) or less by year 2010 is 90%! This clearly represents an extremely conservative view that is not supported by majority of the experts and printed information on the subject. While this extreme view could be useful for short-term budgetary type exercises, it is not appropriate for economic feasibility type studies dealing with long-term problems and solutions. I would therefore strongly recommend switching the probabilities between the “low" and "Consensus Low" oil price scenarios. Richard Emerman July 15, 1988 Page 2 While there is a sensitivity test of such a switch on page III - 12 of the report, that is not sufficient of itself to remove the bias created by current probabilities in the overall analysis. In addition, the sensitivity test dealing with the oil prices should be expanded in such a way as to allow the decision makers -for themselves to ascertain whether the results of any given oil price scenario are reasonable. Even better would be a “break- even" forecast showing the price of oi] & other critical parameters which result in a B/C ratio of one for a proposed alternative. This latter point is critical and would go a long way toward enhancing the credibility of the final results. Equally important will be coordination with the Railbelt utilities who in fact retain the responsibility of providing adequate energy that is reliable and at lowest reasonable cost. Please let me know if there are any questions. KD: bsp