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Home My WebLink AboutSoutheast Alaska Electric Load Forecast, Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority 1987SOUTHEAST ALASKA ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST PREPARED FOR THE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY R. W. BECK AND ASSOCIATES, INC. ENGINEERS AND CONSULTANTS ORLANDO, FLORIDA SEATTLE, WASHINGTON DENVER, COLORADO PHOENIX, ARIZONA BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS AUSTIN, TEXAS WASHINGTON, D.C. INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA COLUMBUS, NEBRASKA NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA APRIL 1987 for the use recommen- ms of R. W. s and books f independent ient and in- preparation ied upon the are intended R. W. Beck assurances Southeast Alaska Electric Load Forecast April 22, 1987 Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority by R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. Seattle, Washington R. W. BECK AND ASSOCIATES, INC ENGINEERS AND CONSULTANTS sa pal is FOURTH & BLANCHARD BUILDING RO. BOx cane alate eS 2121 FOURTH AVENUE KETCHIKAN, ALASKA aoe SEATTLE, WASHINGTON 98121 99901 206-441-7500 FILENO ' SS-1559-EG1-AQ April 22, 1987 Alaska Power Authority 701 East Tudor Road Anchorage, Alaska 99503 Gentlemen: Subject: Southeast Alaska Load Forecast Pursuant to our agreement, we have completed electric load fore- casts for several communities in Southeast Alaska and herewith submit the report summarizing the results of our analysis and documenting our procedures and assumptions. This report has been prepared in conjunction with a separate report, entitled "Juneau Area Electric Load Forecast", prepared to describe the load forecast developed concurrently for the Juneau area. We appreciate the assistance and cooperation given to us by the staff of the Alaska Power Authority and by the many utility and community representatives throughout Southeast Alaska during the preparation of our analysis and report. Respectfully submitted, QWak ay! Areretoty, Southeast Alaska Electric Load Forecast 7 Table of Contents « Page . Section Number Letter of Transmittal Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures I Introduction IMUEROGUCTION: 1c <0 c:cciee ore eioketolelarelotoketeFereiere Sievers sieretsiclele 5 I-] Project Scope ...... Byeleieleieiors arolerololoretelel srereioielere Giaretereiciels I-2 CONS TGEGAt IONS 0c1500 50 aTeiatorsrerelalel stare sreleroreleisieveleleielcisiciere I-3 Report Overview ...cccccccccccccccccsssccces Rereheielelere I-3 II Forecast Methodology and Assumptions Forecast Methodology ...cecceceeee aerancioisisro|sretelolelsrore) ote II-1 - Assumptions ..... hadme eee ere SS pegactusam 11-2 III Community Load Forecasts KMGEGHTRAN “ccicic ciccioicic oe vice vie’ ooo eeus ‘cheweaden tae a III-1 SHE der loco asisict erereiotelcieistercietercrera EGUOUGUUOUL Brafole eferelele(sieieiere II1-6 Petersburg ......- Stofoterelal eels eielororetoreiorereieie eialereieiclorsiero III-11 Wrangell .......- III-15 WIE sc beneedeweetenbwhewest eesau 111-20 Skagway ...ceeees I11-24 KOKO Feciesic cele osiersiee III-28 Metlakatla. III-31 * IV Combined Load Forecast List of Tables Title Ketchikan Public Utilities - Historical Statistics Ketchikan Public Utilities - Summary of Forecast Results Sitka Municipal Electric Deptartment - Historical Statistics Sitka Municipal Electric Deptartment - Summary of Forecast Results Petersburg Municipal Power and Light - Historical Statistics Petersburg Municipal Power and Light - Summary of Forecast Results Wrangell Municipal Light and Power - Historical Statistics Wrangell Municipal Light and Power - Summary of Forecast Results Haines Light and Power - Historical Statistics Haines Light and Power - Summary of Forecast Results Skagway - Historical Statistics Skagway - Summary of Forecast Results Kake - Historical Statistics Kake - Summary of Forecast Results Metlakatla Power and Light - Historical Statistics Met lakatla Power and Light - Summary of Forecast Results Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Summary of Forecast Results Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Annual Energy Requirement - Base Case Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Annual Non-Coincidental Peak Demand - Base Case Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Annual Energy Requirement - High Scenario Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Annual Non-Coincidental Peak Demand - High Scenario Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Annual Energy Requirement - Low Scenario Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Annual Non-Coincidental Peak Demand - Low Scenario Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Excluding Kake, Metlakatla and Sitka Annual Energy Requirements - Base Case Aggregate Southeast Alaska - Excluding Kake, Metlakatla and Sitka Annual Non-Coincidental Peak Demand - Base Case Figure Number III-la III-1b IlI-1c III-2a III-2b III-2c III-3a III-3b III-3c I1lI-4a II1-4b I1I-4c IlI-5a I11I-5b I11-5c III-6a III-6b II I-6c Il1-7a I11-7b III-7c III-8a III-8b III-8c IV-la IV-1b IV-Ic List of Figures Title Ketchikan Public Utilities - Total Annual Energy Requirements Ketchikan Public Utilities - Annual Peak Demand Ketchikan Public Utilities - Total Annual Sales Base Case Forecast Sitka Municipal Electric Dept. - Total Annual Energy Requirements Sitka Municipal Electric Dept. - Annual Peak Demand Sitka Municipal Electric Dept. - Total Annual Sales Base Case Forecast Petersburg Municipal Power and Light - Total Annual Energy Requirements Petersburg Municipal Power and Light - Annual Peak Demand Petersburg Municipal Power and Light - Total Annual Sales Base Case Forecast Wrangell Municipal Light and Power - Total Annual Energy Requirements Wrangell Municipal Light and Power - Annual Peak Demand Wrangell Municipal Light and Power - Total Annual Sales Base Case Haines Light and Power - Total Annual Energy Requirements Haines Light and Power - Annual Peak Demand Haines Light and Power - Total Annual Sales Base Case Skagway - Total Annual Energy Requirements Skagway - Annual Peak Demand Skagway - Total Annual Sales Base Case Kake (THREA) - Total Annual Energy Requirements Kake (THREA) -Annual Peak Demand Kake (THREA) - Total Annual Sales Base Case Metlakatla Power and Light - Total Annual Energy Requirements Metlakatla Power and Light - Annual Peak Demand Metlakatla Power and Light - Total Annual Sales Base Case Aggregate Southeast Load Forecast - Total Annual Energy Requirements Aggregate Southeast Load Forecast - Non-coincidental Peak Demand Aggregate Southeast Load Forecast - Base Case Total Energy Requirement SECTION I INTRODUCTION Introduction The Alaska Power Authority (the "Power Authority") is presently evaluating the technical and economic feasibility of constructing an electric transmission system to electrically interconnect the communities of Southeast Alaska ("Southeast"). Nearly all communities in Southeast are supplied elec- tricity from their respective local utilities. With the completion of the Lake Tyee hydroelectric project in 1984, the Cities of Petersburg and Wrangel] were interconnected by a transmission line becoming the first and only cities in Southeast to be electrically interconnected. Several hydroelectric proj- ects operating in Southeast have surplus generating capacity available. Transmission interconnections could help to distribute this surplus capacity throughout the region and offset fossil fuel generation. Additionally, inter- connecting with Canadian utilities bordering Southeast could open up markets outside of the region as well as increase power supply options to Southeast. Further, the Quartz Hill molybdenum mine near Ketchikan, if developed, would require significant amounts of electric power which could be obtained in part from surplus generation capacity in Southeast if transmission facilities were available. As a part of the evaluation process, R. W. Beck and Associates, Inc. was retained by the Power Authority to estimate the annual electricity requirements for the next 20 years for the Southeast communities of Juneau, Ketchikan, Sitka, Petersburg, Wrangell, Metlakatla, Haines, Skagway and Kake. The results of these load forecasts are subsequently to be used by the Power Authority in analyzing power flow alternatives between the communities and the economic viability of the proposed transmission line. Some of the Southeast communities addressed by this project have periodically made load forecast projections. Because of changes in economic conditions and the relatively small size of the communities, many of these previous projections are no longer valid. The intent of this project has been to take a new look at the future electricity requirements of the communities. Previously prepared forecasts were to be used if they were still considered applicable after verification. In all cases, however, our review determined that it was necessary to develop new independent projections for each com- munity. This report documents the results of the load forecasts which are presented individually by community and in total. A separate report, entitled "Juneau Area Electric Load Forecast", details the load forecast for the Juneau area and has been prepared in conjunction with this report. Both of these reports provide a description of the forecast methodology and principal assumptions used in development of the forecasts. Project Scope The project scope for developing load forecasts for the Southeast communities was developed at the outset of the project as follows: 1. Prepare electric energy and peak demand forecasts for the communities of: Skagway, Haines, Juneau, Sitka, Kake, Peters- burg, Wrangell, Ketchikan and Metlakatla. These forecasts will show annual power requirements for a 20-year period (1986-2005) in calendar years and will consider such factors as State revenues, price of oil, the cost of energy to con- sumers, local economic activities, weather, employment, population, trends in energy conservation, and changes in electricity consumption. The degree to which each of these factors is applied depends, of course, on the availability of adequate data. Field visits to each of the communities will be conducted to gather first-hand information concerning socio-economic conditions and to contact large electrical con- sumers to discuss their anticipated future power require- ments. To the extent that load forecasts have been developed for any of these communities in the past three years, these previous forecasts will be reviewed and modified to reflect current conditions rather than developed anew. Develop low, probable and high scenarios for the power requirements forecasts. Develop a combined load forecast for all of the communities in total. In addition to the nine communities previously listed, the Power Authority will provide load projections for the Quartz Hill molybdenum mine which will be included in the aggregate forecast. The aggregate forecast will be prepared with and without the communities of Sitka, Kake and Metlakatla included. Submit a draft report to the Power Authority summarizing the results of the load forecasts and documenting methodologies and assumptions. Finalize the draft report after review by the Power Authority and other appropriate parties. I-2 The project scope further indicated that a separate report describ- ing the Juneau area load forecast would be prepared. I-3 Considerations As with any projections of the future, the forecasts developed for this project should be considered as estimates based solely on historical trends, causal relationships, and expectations of future conditions. The level of economic activity in Southeast, based largely on the harvest and processing of natural resources, has varied significantly from year to year. Regulatory and international economic and political changes have impacted Southeast in the past and will continue to do so in the future. These changes, which are beyond the control of the local communities, cannot be predicted and can cause significant impacts because of the size of the com- munities and their relatively non-diversified economies. At the local level, data gathered from Southeast utilities concerning historical usage of electricity is limited for the most part. Recent population levels of the various communities are estimates at best, which limits the use of population in projecting the number of electrical consumers. Improvements on the part of the utilities in meter reading and billing are still being made, causing concern about the accuracy and useful- ness of historical data in evaluating electricity usage patterns and trends. Additionally, the forecasts derived through this project have not addressed the cost of electricity in the future except to assume that prices to con- sumers will remain even with inflation (no increase or decrease in the "real" price of electricity). Evaluation of historical usage levels in most of tnese communities indicates a significant change in electricity usage can be ex- pected as a result of future price changes. Although we have attempted to develop reasonable forecasts, the limitations inherent in any forecasting effort should be realized and con- sidered when using the forecast results for decision purposes. The forecasts should be updated periodically to account for new information and experienced changes. Low and high forecast estimates are provided to bracket the expected range of projections, but even these alternative scenarios do not account for all possible outcomes. Consideration should also be given to the nature of the forecasting procedure used. It was intended that the forecasts would be developed to project relatively long-term load requirements and as such, the procedures implemented in developing the forecasts attempted to capture long-term his- torical relationships and trends for projecting future loads. Short-term results may not be as accurate as could be achieved using different forecast- ing techniques more appropriate for short-term applications. Report Overview This report is intended to be a straightforward summary of forecast results, methods and principal assumptions. Forecast methodology and major overall assumptions are described in Section II. Brief descriptions of each community and their respective economies (except Juneau) are included as a 1-4 part of the individual community subsections in Section III. Section III also includes the load forecasts by community and the specific assumptions and procedures used in developing the individual community forecasts. For de- scriptions and procedures of the Juneau area load forecast, see the jointly prepared report entitled ."Juneau Area Load Forecast". The forecast results are summarized in total in Section IV. An alternative combination of the community forecasts excluding Kake, Sitka and Metlakatla is included in this section as are the results for the base, low and high scenarios. SECTION II FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS Forecast Methodology Forecasts were developed separately for each community. Initially it was intended that econometric models relating electricity usage to various causal factors such as population, employment, electricity rates, and per capita income would be derived for each customer class (i.e., residential, commercial, etc.). However, the lack of accurate data on a community level severely limited the development of these models for several communities. In some cases it was not possible to establish reasonable relationships between electricity usage and what would normally be considered explanatory causal factors. If reasonable econometric models could not be developed, certain assumptions were made to permit the trending of historical values into the future. For all communities major impacts such as expected new large loads or changes in existing large loads were added or subtracted discretely. Peak demand and energy requirements were projected separately. Historical data showing the number of customers, kilowatt-hour sales, and revenues from electricity sales annually, by customer class were requested from each utility. Data concerning population, employment, per capita income, State revenue sharing amounts, and weather were obtained from various State and federal agencies. Data was then evaluated using standard statistical techniques to determine the relationships between the number of electrical consumers in each community, the usage of electricity per consumer and the possible causal measures that explain changes in these factors. An example would be to determine how population and employment in a community affect the number of residential electricity customers. If a meaningful quantitative relationship could be established, the projection of the number of residential customers in the future would be based on independently pre- pared population and employment projections. The reasoning behind this proc- ess is that certain factors such as population and employment growth exhibit More stable patterns and are consequently more easily projected than elec- tricity usage. Use of these available projections as the basis of the load forecasts ties the forecast to these projections and easily permits considera- tion of alternative assumptions including sensitivity analyses and alternative growth scenarios. Other relationships typically evaluated included: ° Community population and the number of residen- tial customers. 0 Community employment and the number of commercial customers. ° Real price of electricity and customer usage. 0 Per capita income and customer usage. II-2 0 Heating degree days and customer usage. 0 Peak demand and total energy requirements. Each community was modeled differently, depending on available data and the statistically significant relationships that could be derived. When possible, the forecasts developed for the communities were based on population projections made or recommended by local planning agen- cies. If a population projection did not exist, a growth rate was assumed based on estimated community growth potential in relationship to the other communities. For most of the communities projected population growth for the base case was in the range of 1% per year. The low case typically assumed population would not grow (0% growth) and the high case assumed population growth rates of 1.5% to 2% per year. Employment in each community was assumed to increase at the same rate as projected population growth. Assumptions Several assumptions were made in developing the load forecasts that are typically common to each community's forecast. Some variance may occur by community and these variances are identified in the individual community descriptions in Section III. Following are principal assumptions common to the various forecasts: oO Long-term inflation of 4.0% per year. 0 The cost of power in each community will increase at the rate of assumed annual inflation (0% real increase or decrease). 0 The timber and fishing industries in Southeast will be stable throughout tne forecast period (1987-2006) . SECTION III COMMUNITY LOAD FORECASTS Ketchikan Overview Ketchikan is Alaska's fourth largest city and is located on Revil- lagigedo Island at the southern end of the Southeastern panhandle. The econo- my is based mainly on the timber and fish industries, although tourism has continued to increase as a major factor in Ketchikan's economy. Government services, primarily the Alaska Marine Highway System, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the U.S. Forest Service, provide significant levels of employment in Ketchikan. The area's single largest employer is the Ketchikan Pulp Company (KPC), a wood pulp manufacturer located on Ward's Cove just north of the city. KPC produces a high grade pulp primarily for export to foreign markets. The U.S. Borax Company has, in the past few years, proceeded towards the development of a world-class molybdenum mine at Quartz Hill, located about 45 miles east of Ketchikan. The development of Quartz Hill would have a signifi- cant impact on Ketchikan. Presently the world price of molybdenum has fallen to a level that has essentially stopped progress on the Quartz Hill develop- ment. Electricity is supplied to virtually all of the Ketchikan Gateway Borough by Ketchikan Public Utilities (KPU). KPC produces its own power with steam turbines fired by a combustion of process waste products and diesel fuel. Over the past ten years the total annual energy requirements of KPU have increased from 72,870 MWh in 1975 to 108,422 MWh in 1985, representing a 4.1% average annual increase. The total number of electric consumers has increased from 4,896 to 6,494 over the same period, a 2.9% average annual increase. III-2 The following table summarizes various historical statistics of KPU for the past ten years: Table III-1 Ketchikan Public Utilities Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peak Calendar Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kWh) (MWh) (MWh) (kW) 1967 N/A 23,e13 N/A 45,258 51,812 N/A 1970 3,067 27,128 8,845 53,893 61,825 11,800 1975 3,837 32,838 8,558 64,116 72,870 13,700 1976 4,019 35,059 8,723 66,972 755205 14,000 1977 4,173 35,082 8,407 66,692 77,560 16, 300 1978 4,312 36,754 8,524 71,126 81,298 15,100 1979 4,393 37, 462 8,528 72,214 81,214 16,100 1980 4,469 39,135 8,757 73,748 85,522 17,700 1981 4,561 42,834 9,391 81,464 88,913 16, 900 1982 4,769 43,164 9,051 84,375 98,984 19,100 1983 5.053 44,961 8,898 85,834 99,556 20, 800 1984 5,149 51,294 9,962 94,381 106,227 21,600 1985 5,036 49,236 9,777 96,792 108, 422 25,500 Average Annual Increase: 1975-85 2.8% 4.1% Neoe 4.2% 4.1% 6.4% 1980-85 2.4% 4.7% Zale 5.6% 4.9% 7.6% 1983-85 -0.2% 4.6% 4.8% 6.2% 4.4% 10.7% The population of the Ketchikan Borough increased from 10,379 in 1970 to 11,373 in 1980. Between 1980 and 1983 the population increased to 14,300 partly as a result of increased construction activity in the area. Since 1983, because of problems at KPC, downturns in construction activity, and other factors, the population of the Borough is estimated to have declined to approximately 13,200. Forecast Assumptions Overall it appears that the declines in population and economic activity experienced over the past two to three years in Ketchikan have stopped. KPC is operating and expresses a desire to continue operating. III-3 Tourism continues to increase and the timber and fishing industries are con- sidered stable. Without development of Quartz Hill, Borough planners estimate that the population of the area will increase at a steady rate in the future of approximately 1.3% per year. Ketchikan has had population projections made in the recent past as a part of studies prepared to evaluate Quartz Hill impacts. KPU anticipates two new large loads in the future. One, the new Alaska ferry maintenance facility, is scheduled to begin operating in 1987 and the other, a U.S. Navy submarine testing facility, is expected to begin oper- ation in the early 1990s. KPU also believes that there is a high probability of negotiating a contract with KPC to supply a portion of KPC's electrical requirements. The energy requirements for KPU have been projected separately for each customer class. The number of residential customers is projected to increase at a rate slightly higher than the projected rate of population growth. Usage per customer is projected to increase at the same rate experi- enced in the past. The number of commercial customers and boat customers is projected to increase relative to area population growth. The number of general (industrial) class customers is projected to remain constant except for explicit additions of the ferry maintenance facility, the submarine test- ing center and KPC. The high case scenario for Ketchikan assumes the development of the Quartz Hill project. Quartz Hill development is not assumed to begin until 1989 and the impact on the Ketchikan Borough population is assumed to be an increase of nearly 5,000 people over the non-development case population by the time the mine is fully operational. This impact has been estimated by the National Institute for Socioeconomic Research in a report prepared for the Ketchikan Gateway Borough in January 1983. Energy losses are projected to be at 9.2% of generation based on the historical average between 1970 and 1985. Peak demand is projected based on a 54% load factor on existing loads plus the explicit demand of the new general (industrial) class additions. Following is a list of the main forecast assumptions that vary between the three forecast scenarios: Base Case Annual Population Growth: 1986-1996: 1.3% 1996-2006: 1.0% General (Industrial) Class Additions: 2.5 MW and 6,600 MWh in 1987; 2.5 MW and 8,800 MWh in 1988; 3.0 MW and 13,100 MWh in 1989 and thereafter Ferry Maintenance Facility: U.S. Navy Submarine Testing Facility: Low Case Annual Population Growth: General Class Additions: High Case Annual Population Growth: General Class Additions: KPC: I1I-4 0.1 MW and 900 MWh in 1989 and 1990; 1.0 MW and 1,400 MWh in 1991; 2.7 MW and 4,120 MWh in 1992 and thereafter 1986-2006: 0.5% Ferry Maintenance Facility purchases 2.5 MW and 8,800 MWh in 1988 and thereafter. The submarine testing facility and KPC are not added as loads of KPU. 1986-1991: 2.0% 1991-1996: 5.0% 1996-2006: 2.0% Same as Base Case with the addition of KPC loads as follows: 2 MW and 17,500 MWh in 1987; 3 MW and 26,000 MWh in 1988; 4 MW and 35,000 MWh in 1989 and thereafter III-5 : Forecast Results d The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table « for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table III-2 Ketchikan Public Utilities Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Avg. Annual Inc. Actual 1986 1991 1996 2006 BE-51 91-96 96-06 Base Case: nM Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 49,236 49,500 58,800 68,700 83,300 3.5% 3.2% 1.9% Commercial 39,102 40,000 44,600 49,700 58,900 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 2 General 6,517 6,500 21,000 23,700 23,700 26.4% 2.5% 0% Other 1,937 2,000 2,200 2,500 Zen |||) age |||| se |||) |e bm Total 96,792 98,000 126,600 144,600 168,700 5.3% 2.7% 1.6% Total Req. (MWh) 108,422 111,400 144,000 164,500 191,800 5.3% 2.7% 1.8% Peak Demand (kW) 25,500 23,600 31,500 37,400 44,100 6.0% 3.5% 1.7% High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 50,000 62,500 91,300 125,100 4.6% 7.9% 3.2% Commercial 40,400 47,800 71,900 100,400 3.4% 8.5% 3.4% General 6,500 56,000 58,700 58,700 53.8% 1.0% 0% Other 2,000 2,300 3,000 32/00) *2.8e - 538% | 2.1% . Total 99,000 168,600 224,900 287,900 11.2% 5.9% 2.5% Total Req. 112,600 191,800 255,700 327,400 11.2% 5.9% 2.5% Peak Demand (kW) 23,800 37,400 54,000 71,400 9.4% 7.6% 2.9% i Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 49,000 54,800 60,900 69,400 2.3% 2.2% 1.3% Commercial 39,400 41,100 42,900 46,700 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% General 6,500 15,300 15,300 15,300 18.6% -0% -0% Total 96,900 113,300 121,400 133,800 3.2% 1.4% 1.0% Other 2,000 2,100 2,300 2,400 1.0% 1.8% 0.4% Total Req. (MWh) 110,200 128,900 138,000 152,200 3.2% 1.4% 1.0% Peak Demand (kW) 23,300 27,900) 30,100) 33,600 3.7% (1.68 | 1.1% The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. mM Historical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphi- cally in Figure III-la and Figure III-1lb, respectively. Figure III-lc dis- plays historical and projected base case energy sales by customer classifi- cation. ENERGY RCOUIREMENTS (Mwn) (Trovsonds) (Trovsonds) PEAK OLMAND (Kw) (Thousenss) SALES (mwn) KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS 320 260 HIGH SCIEN, Figure I]I-1a 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND 80 70 60 Figure III-1b i BASE CASE 20 HISTORICAL 10 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2008 KETCHIKAN PUBLIC UTILITIES TOTAL ANNUAL SALES BASE CASE FORECAST 170 TOTAL SALES. Figure III-1c 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 111-6 Sitka Overview Sitka, located on Baranof Island, is a community of about 8,200 people. As with other Southeast communities the economy of Sitka relies heavily on the fishing and timber industries. Both the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Forest Service have major operations in Sitka and a State college, Sheldon Jackson College, is located in Sitka. The State also operates a retirement home and a large boarding school in Sitka for high school students from small communities. The Alaska Pulp Company (APC) operates a large pulp mill outside of the City and provides approximately 28% of the area's employ- Ment. In recent years APC has experienced significant environmental, labor and financial problems. Many of these problems appear to be resolved for the present with new labor contracts being established, agreements being reached with the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the value of the U.S. dollar declining so as to allow APC's product to be cost competitive in Pacific rim markets. The City of Sitka's municipal electric department supplies power to essentially all of the Sitka Borough. The City supplies all of its load requirements with hydroelectric generation from its Blue Lake and Green Lake projects. APC generates the majority of its electrical needs with steam turbines fired with a combination of process waste products and diesel oil. The City typically supplies between 2 and 5 MW of power to APC as a part of agreements established at the time the City began operation of its Green Lake hydroelectric project. Over the past ten years the total annual energy requirements of the City have increased from 39,528 MWh in fiscal year 1976 to 73,386 MWh in fiscal year 1986, not including sales to APC, representing a 6.4% average annual increase. Sales to APC in fiscal year 1986 were 27,929 MWh. The total number of electric consumers has increased from 2,318 to 3,714 over the same period, a 4.8% average annual increase. The population of the Sitka Borough increased from 6,100 in 1970 to 7,925 in 1980. Current population is estimated to be approximately 8,200, indicating a 0.6% average annual increase between 1980 and 1986. Population increased dramatically during the 1970s with the installation of major U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Forest Service operations in Sitka. III-7 The following table summarizes various historical statistics of Sitka's municipal electric department for the past thirteen years: Table III-3 Sitka Municipal Electric Department Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total Year Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peak Ended Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand 6/30 Customers (MWh) (kWh) MWh) * (MWh) (kW) * 1973 1,461 10,648 7,288 19,478 30,654 6,050 1976 1,749 14,415 8,242 29,038 39,528 7,200 1977 1,867 15,655 8,430 32,327 40,925 7,550 1978 2,015 17,254 8,563 39,011 46,593 8,795 1979 2,105 18,055 8,577 37,130 N/A 9,450 1980 2,200 18, 943 8,611 38, 382 48,349 10,100 1981 2,364 20,325 8,598 45,305 53,441 11,400 1982 29577 23,368 9,068 50,370 64,138 12,600 1983 2,521 23,574 9,351 51,805 90,101 12,055 1984 2,552 26, 333 10,319 57,958 98,224 12,343 1985 2,662 27,937 10,495 60,172 105,003 14,738 1986 2,698 28,718 10,644 66,929 101,315 15,440 Average Annual Increase: 1976-86 4.4% 7.1% 2.6% 8.7% 9.9% 7.9% 1981-86 2.7% 7.2% 4.4% 8.1% 13.7% 6.3% 1984-86 2.8% 4.4% 1.6% 7.5% 1.6% 11.8% * = Excludes sales to and peak demand attributable to APC. Forecast Assumptions Local planners in Sitka expect the area population to grow at about 1% per year in the future. No major impacts are seen as being on the horizon that would affect electrical usage one way or the other. With APC operating, but representing a smaller percentage of total area employment than before, the area's economy appears more diverse. In recent years nearly all residen- tial construction in the Sitka area has included electric heat which has caused an increase in electricity usage per residential customer. In the future it is anticipated that residential density (the number of people per III-8 residence) will decrease as more multiple unit housing is constructed and average family size decreases. Energy sales for each of the City's customer classes have been pro- jected separately. The-numbers of residential, commercial, boat and public authority customers are projected to increase at a rate related to forecasted population growth. Electricity usage per customer has been projected to change corresponding to changes in per capita income and the price of elec- tricity. No new large loads have been included. Energy sales to APC have been assumed to be a constant 3 MW each year. In the past APC has purchased much more than this amount but decreases in the price of oil have permitted APC to cost effectively generate more of its own power needs. Purchases of power by APC have also been related to the City's hydroelectric generation surpluses. As the City's own load continues to increase, the amount of surplus generation available for sale to APC will decrease. It is not anticipated that APC would purchase power from the City unless the power were priced at a favorable rate associated with surplus hydro generation. For the purpose of this study, however, it has been assumed that APC will purchase a full 3 MW through the study period. This assumption should be re-evaluated when subsequent power supply analyses are prepared. The differences in assumptions for the base case, high case and low case are in regards to assumed population growth. For the base case, high case and low case, annual population growth has been assumed to be 1%, 2% and 0.5%, respectively. III-9 Forecast Results The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table III-4 Sitka Municipal Electric Department Summary of Forecast Results FY 1986 Average Annual Increase Actual 1991 1996 2006 Tsee=9t —T99T-96T996=06 Base Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 28,718 33,800 39,500 51,300 353% 3.2% 2.7% Commercial 21,326 23,300 26,600 34,700 1.8% 2.7% 2.7m Public Auth. 16,021 17,700 19,500 23,800 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Boats 863 1,000 1,200 1,600 3.0% 3.7% 2.9% Total 66,929 75,800 86,800 111,400 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% Total Energy Req. (MWh)* 101,315 107,800 119,700 146,100 1.3% ene 2.0% Peak Demand (kW) 15,440 17,200 19,500 24,500 2.2% 2.5% 2.3% High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 37,300 46,900 68,800 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% Commercial 25,700 32,3800... §14200 3.8% 4.7% 4.7% Public Auth. 19,500 23,700 35,100 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Boats 1,000 1,400 2,200 3.0% 7.0% 4.6% Total 83,500 104,300 157,300 4.5% 4.5% 4.2% Total Energy Req. (MWh)* 116,100 138,500 195,600 2.8% 3.6% 3.5% Peak Demand (kW) 18,800 23,000 34,000 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 29,600 30,600 31,000 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% Commercial 21,600 22,700 25,100 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% Public Auth. 16,800 17,700 19,500 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Boats 900 900 1,000 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Total 68,900 71,900 76,600 0.6% 0.9% 0. 6% Total Energy Req. (MWh)* 100,400 103,600 108,700 -0.2% 0.6% 0.5% Peak Demand (kW) 15,800 16,400 17,400 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% * = Includes projected sales to APC. III-10 The drop in total requirements shown between 1986 and 1987 is caused mainly by an assumed decrease in energy sales to APC. The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. Historical and projected total annual energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphically in Fig- ure III-2a and Figure IJI-2b, respectively. Historical and projected base case energy sales by major customer classification are shown in Figure III-2c. ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (uwn) (Trovsenes) PLAK DEMAND (Kw) (Trovsoncs) SALCS (wm) (Trousengs) 190 180 170 160 150 140 hy 120 110 100 sssessa SITKA MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY RCOUIRCMCENTS Ow SCENARIO 966 971 1976 1981 1986 199) 1996 2001 SITKA MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND 971 1976 1981 1966 1991 1996 2001 120 10 SITKA MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC DEPARTMENT TOTAL ANNUAL SALCS BASE CASE FORECAST TOT SALCS 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 Figure III-2c III-11 Petersburg Overview The City of Petersburg is located on Mitkof Island and relies heavily on fishing and fish processing as the major factors in its economy. The largest cannery in Alaska, Petersburg Fisheries, Inc. (PFI), is located in Petersburg. Area population is currently about 3,250, an increase of about 250 over the 1980 population level. Electric power is supplied to the community by Petersburg Municipal Power and Light (PMPL) which is owned and operated by the City of Petersburg. PMPL operates its own hydroelectric plant and diesel facilities and buys power from the Power Authority generated at the Tyee Lake hydroelectric project. In the past two years total energy requirements of PMPL have increased greatly as a result of two new cannery loads (one cannery is new and the other is operat- ing again after a two-year closure), increased load of the fish hatchery and a new high school. Over the past ten years the total annual energy requirements of PMPL have increased from 18,372 MWh in 1975 to 27,547 MWh in 1985, a 4.0% average annual increase. The total number of electric customers has increased from 1,015 to 1,619 over the same period, representing a 4.8% average annual increase. III-12 The following table summarizes various historical statistics of PMPL: Table III-5 Petersburg Municipal Power and Light Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peak Calendar Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kWh) (MWh) (MWh) (kW) 1967 N/A 3,875 N/A 8,651 10,675 2,300 1970 749 5,649 7,542 11,540 135.742 N/A 1975 840 6,226 7,412 18, 953 18.372 3,250 1976 858 6,431 7,495 16,823 19,307 3,670 1977 922 6,613 TV72 18,423 21,136 33750 1978 985 7,071 Tis\73 19,147 21,960 4,000 1979 1,096 6,972 6,361 18,657 21,546 4,190 1980 1,147 7,289 6355) 18,521 21,450 4,200 198] Tt55 7,101 6,148 18,014 21,000 4,200 1982 1,160 7,482 6,450 19,621 22,266 4,330 1983 1,206 7,600 6,304 19,828 22,839 4,330 1984 1,268 8,140 6,418 21,997 23,661 4,670 1985 1,378 8,839 6,414 23,562 27,547 5,000 Average Annual Increase: 1975-85 Sle 3.6% -1.4% 4.0% 4.1% 4.4% 1980-85 3.7% 3.9% 0.2% 4.9% 5am 3.6% 1983-85 6.9% 7.8% 0.9% 9.0% 9.8% 7.5% Forecast Assumptions The forecast of electricity requirements is based on the assumption that the fishing industry will continue to remain relatively stable. It is also assumed that the large increases in peak demand and energy requirements experienced in the last two years will not continue since they are the result of a return to "normal conditions" in fish processing and the addition and expansion of public works projects. No further major expansion is anticipated in the area although an overall steady growth has been projected. There is some potential that a lumber mill currently generating its own power will pur- chase power from PMPL but this load, thought to be as high as 500 kW, has not been included in the forecast because of its speculative nature at this time. III-13 PFI has experienced increases in its electricity usage in past years and expects loads to continue to increase. Energy sales for each of PMPL's customer classes have been pro- jected separately. The .number of customers for each class is projected to increase at a rate relative to increases in area population. Usage per custo- mer is projected to increase in the near term because of a recently enacted declining block rate structure. Statistical analysis indicates that PMPL customers have in the past reacted to changes in electricity prices through changes in the amount of electricity used. Power losses are projected at 8% of total generation based on a ten-year historical average and peak demand has been projected based on a 60% load factor. The differences in assumptions for the base case, high case and low case pertain to assumed population growth. For the base case, high case and low case, annual population growth has been assumed to be 1%, 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. Area employment is projected to increase at the same rates. III-14 Forecast Results The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table III-6 Petersburg Municipal Power and Light Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Avg. Annual Inc. Actual _ 1986 1991 1996 2006 5681 91-96 96-06 Base Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 8,839 9,300 10,000 10,500 11,500 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% Commercial 5,708 6,800 7,100 7,500 8,200 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Industrial 9,015 9,400 10,200 11,100 13,100 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Total 23,562 25,400 27,400 29,100 32,900 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% Total Energy Req. (MWh) 27,547 29,100 31,300 33,300 37,600 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% Peak Demand (kW) 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,300 73200 1.5% 1.28 Vi2% High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 9,300 10,300 11,000 12,600 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% Commercial 6,800 7,300 7,900 9,100 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Industrial 9,500 10,700 12,200 15,600 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Total 25,600 28,400 31,100 37,300 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% Total Energy Req. (MWh) 29,300 32,500 35,600 42,700 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% Peak Demand (kW) 5,600 6,200 6,800 8,100 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 9,200 9,800 10,000 10,500 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% Commercial 6,700 6,900 7,100 7,400 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Industrial 9, 300 9,700 10,100 11,000 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Total 25,300 26,400 27,200 28,900 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% Total Energy Req. (MWh) 29,000 30,200 31,200 33,100 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% Peak Demand (kW) 5,500 5,800 5,900 6,300 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. Historical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown in Fig- ure III-3a and Figure III-3b, respectively. Figure III-3c displays historical and projected base case energy sales by customer classification. ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (wn) (Troveones) PEAK DEMAND (KW) (Thousonds) SALES (Mwn) (Trousones) a“ 32 268 26 2 22 20 1% 6 “4 2 10 ve oe PETERSBURG MUNICIPAL POWER & LIGHT TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS oF T a au T 1966 1971 1976 198) 1986 1991 1996 2001 PETERSBURG MUNICIPAL POWER & LIGHT ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND HIGH SCENARIO LOW SCENARIO HISTORICAL 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 PETERSBURG MUNICIPAL POWER & LIGHT TOTAL ANNUAL SALES BASE CASE FORECAST 2006 2005 TOTAL SALES 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Figure III-3a Figure III-3b Figure III-3c III-15 Wrangell Overview The City of Wrangell is located on Wrangell Island near the mouth of the Stikine River just south of Petersburg. Wrangell has a deep water port facility and has for years served as the gateway port to the Stikine River leading through the coastal mountain ranges into British Columbia, Canada. The economy of Wrangell is based mainly on forest products, fishing and fish processing. Wrangell Forest Products (WFP), a lumber mill in the area, re- opened in May of 1984 after a four-month closure and transfer of ownership and currently employs about 160 people. Wrangell Fisheries operates a cannery and also processes fresh frozen fish. The population of Wrangell is presently estimated to be about 2,400. Population in 1970 and 1980 was 2,039 and 2,345, respectively. Growth in Wrangell has always been slow and much more moderate than in Ketchikan or Petersburg. The completion of the Lake Tyee hydroelec- tric project near Wrangell in 1984 impacted the town as construction personnel and their families left the Wrangell area. Electric power is supplied to the community by Wrangell Municipal Light and Power (WMLP), a department of the City's government. Power is pur- chased by WMLP from the Alaska Power Authority. Total energy requirements have increased from 10,753 in 1975 to 13,651 in 1985, an average annual in- crease of 2.4%. The total number of electric customers has increased from 906 to 1,172 over the same period, representing a 2.6% average annual increase. III-16 The following table summarizes various historical statistics of WMLP for the past fifteen years: Table III-7 Wrangell Municipal Light and Power Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total ; Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peak Calendar Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kWh) (MWh) (MWh) (kW) 1970 536 2,783 5,192 6,536 7,199 1,700 1975 775 3,826 4,937 8,951 10, 753 2,600 1976 769 35872 53035 8,813 11,651 2,650 1977 804 3,916 4,871 9,165 e577 3,000 1978 786 3,811 4,849 10,321 13,949 3,000 1979 780 3,688 4,728 10,492 14,207 3,100 1980 794 snes 4,689 11,266 13,308 3,000 1981 729 3,804 5.218 W207 13,192 2.750) 1982 839 4,300 S25 11,369 13,501 3,000 1983 893 4,559 5,106 11,415 12,893 2,550 1984 890 4,712 5,294 11,875 12,564 3,000 1985 858 5,016 5,846 12,675 13,651 SAAD) Average Annual Increase: 1975-85 1.0% 2.8% liza 35% 2.4% 2.3% 1980-85 1.6% 6.1% 4.5% 2.4% 0.5% 1.7% 1983-85 -2.0% 4.9% 7.0% 5.4% 2.9% 13.2% Since 1983 the cost of electricity to WMLP customers has decreased, contributing to a significant increase in the amount of electricity used by each customer. The cost decrease has been caused by declining oil prices and the availability of power from the Lake Tyee hydroelectric project at a rela- tively low cost. The historical data provided by WMLP indicates a major reduction in losses and unaccounted for energy over the past ten years. In 1975 losses were 15% of total generation whereas in 1985 they were only 5.3%. This change causes the variance between average annual increases for Total Energy Sales and Total Energy Requirements as shown on the foregoing table. III-17 Forecast Assumptions The potential for growth in the Wrangell area appears good. WFP expresses a commitment to continued operation with plans to expand if market conditions prove favorable. Fish processing has a potential for growth, especially into cold storage of fresh fish. There is a possibility of some support-related services for potential mining projects in British Columbia. Several new public buildings have been completed in the last year or are under construction which will add to electricity requirements. Although some growth to the area can be anticipated, it is assumed for the purpose of this study that any future growth will occur at a minimal pace. Population is assumed to grow annually at 0.75%, 1.5% and 0.0% for the base, high and low scenarios, respectively. In early 1986 WMLP negotiated a power sales contract with WFP. Initially it was estimated that power sales would be around 4,800,000 kWh annually. Present usage is in the range of 3,000,000 to 3,500,000 kWh on an annual basis. For the base case of the forecast it has been assumed that WMLP sales to the WFP mill will be 3,000,000 kWh per year throughout the 20-year forecast period. The high case assumes a 1% per year growth in this amount and the low case assumes the mill load decreases to zero over a three-year period. The number of residential, commercial and City government customers has been projected to increase relative to assumed population growth. Both residential and commercial usage per customer are projected to change based on the future cost of electricity. Energy losses have been projected at the l6-year average of 13.4% and peak demand has been estimated with a 54% load factor that increases gradually to 57% over the 20-year projection period. The load factor projections are based on nistorical relationships and trends. III-18 Forecast Results The results of the forecast are summarized in the followin for each of the three forecast scenarios: anit Table III-8 Wrangell] Municipal Light and Power Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Avg. Annual Inc. Actual 1986 1991 1996 2006 85-3 OT-56 96-06 Base Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 5,016 5,000 5,300 5,500 6:200) | 1-28 | le | 1% Commercial 5,874 6,800 7,800 8,400 9.700 2.7% 1.58 Se Indus. (WFP) 793 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 -0% 0% 0% City Gov.* 992 900 1,100 1,400 1,900 4.1% 4.9% 3.1% Total 12,675 15,700 17,200 18,300 20,800 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% Total Req. (MWh) 13,651 18,800 20,600 21,900 24,800 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% Peak Demand (kW) 3,270 3,900 4,300 4,500 $000 |) 1.5%) | 1.1%!) | Vet% High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 5,000 5,500 6,000 7,200 .1.9% 1.6% 1.8% Commercial 6,900 7,900 8,500 9,900 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% Indus. (WFP) 3,000 3,200 3,300 3700 JVsO% V.O%:..- 150% City Gov.* 1,000 1,300 1,900 3,200 5.4% 7.9% 5.4% Total 15,900 17,900 19,700 24,000 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% Total Req. (MWh) 19,000 21,500 23,600 28,700 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% Peak Demand (kW) 4,000 4,400 4,800 5,600 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 4,900 5,000 5,000 5,000 0.2% 0% -0% Commercial 6,700 7,100 7,100 7,100 61.28% -0% -0% Indus. (WFP) 3,000 0 0 O -100% 0% -0% City Gov.* 900 900 900 900 - 0% 0% 0% Total 15,500 13,000 13,000 13,000 0% -0% -0% Total Req. (MWh) 18,600 15,600 15,600 15,600 0% -0% -0% Peak Demand (kW) 3,900 3,400 3,400 3,400 0% 0% -0% * = TInctudes street lighting. II1-19 The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. Historical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown in Figure III-4a and Figure III-4b, respectively. Figure III-4c displays his- torical and projected base case energy sales by customer classification. ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (MWh) (Thousands) (Thousonds) PEAK DEMAND (KW) SALES (MWh) (Thousands) WRANGELL MUNICIPAL LIGHT & POWER TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS Figure II1-4a HISTORICAL LOW SCENARIO a. = as T T zs ——F 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 WRANGELL MUNICIPAL LIGHT & POWER ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND a LOW SCENARIO Figure II1-4b 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 WRANGELL MUNICIPAL LIGHT & POWER TOTAL ANNUAL SALES BASE CASE FORECAST Figure III-4c 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 111-20 Haines Overview The community -of Haines is located approximately 80 miles north of Juneau near the northern end of the Lynn Canal. Principal economic activity centers around transportation, fishing, timber and tourism. The Haines High- way connects Haines with the Alaska Highway in the Yukon Territory providing a vital link with the interior of Alaska and the Yukon. Haines and Skagway, located just a few miles apart by air and water, serve as the northern termi- nus of the Alaska Marine Highway System in Southeast Alaska. In 1903 Fort William H. Seward, a United States Army post, was located in the Haines area. Fort Seward served as a major stimulus to development of the area until the end of World War II when it was decommissioned. The current population of the Haines Borough is estimated to be approximately 1,800. In 1970 the population was about 1,500 and in 1980 it was approximately 1,700. Population growth has averaged about 1.2% per year since 1970. Electricity is supplied to the area by Haines Light and Power Com- pany (HLP), a privately-owned utility. Over the past ten years HLP has experienced radical changes in total energy sales and peak demand. Much of this has been caused by fluctuations in large commercial usage. Residential and small commercial power use has increased slightly over this same period. Total energy sales were 6,541 MWh and 7,876 MWh in 1980 and 1985, respective- ly, corresponding to a 3.8% average annual increase. The total number of customers has increased from 608 in 1980 to 740 in 1985, representing an aver- age annual increase of 4.0%. III-21 The following table summarizes various historical statistics for HLP: Table III-9 Haines Light and Power Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peak Calendar Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kWh) (MWh) (MWh) (kW) 1971 N/A 2,214 N/A 6,254 N/A N/A 1976 N/A 2,912 N/A 7,516 N/A 1,300 1980 435 2,450 §,.632 6,541 7,309 1,300 1981 435 2,382 5,476 6,344 6,995 1,900 1982 483 2,547 SoS 7,630 8,319 1,500 1983 473 2,672 5,649 7,336 7,855 1,500 1984 493 2,854 5, 789 8,022 8,609 2,000 1985 520 3,033 55833 7,876 8,685 1,700 Average Annual Increase: 1980-85 3.6% 4.4% 0.7% 3.8% 3.5% 5.5% 1983-85 4.9% 6.5% 1.6% 3.6% 5.2% 6.5% Forecast Assumptions Growth potential appears to be good for the Haines area. Recently, the area's lumber mill was purchased and is anticipated to reopen in the near future after a two-year closure. It is anticipated that the mill may employ about 40 workers most of whom are presently unemployed in the area. The mill is expected to generate its own power and will not be a direct customer of HLP. Two potential mining operations in Canada, if operations begin, are anticipated to tranship ore through Haines. There is also the possibility of the City of Haines developing cold storage facilities for fish products. Tourism has been increasing and continues to look promising for the future. Although the specific impacts of these potential expansions and additions cannot be determined at the present time, they do indicate a general increase in economic activity and economic diversification. The load forecast assumes area population to grow at 1.5% per year through 1991 and at 1% per year thereafter for the base case. Population growth for the high case is assumed to be 2.5% per year through 1991, 2.0% per year from 1991 through 1996 and 1.5% per year thereafter. The low case assumes population growth of 0.5% III-22 per year through 1991 and at 0% thereafter. Employment is assumed to increase at the same rate as population growth. The impacts on local population associated with the reopening of the lumber mill are assumed to be included in the base and high case population growth scenarios. No electrical require- ments of the mill are assumed to be supplied by HLP in the future and as such are not included in the forecast. The number of electric consumers of HLP is projected to increase at a rate related to the projected increase in area employment. Usage per custo- mer has been projected to remain relatively constant. Energy losses have been projected to be 8.5% of total generation based on HLP's experienced average between 1980 and 1985. Peak demand is estimated based on a load factor that decreases from 54% in 1986 to 50% in 2006. The load factor is projected to decrease based on historical trends. II1-23 Forecast Results The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table III-10 Haines Light and Power Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Avg. Annual Inc. Actual _ 1986 1991 1996 2006 BET 91-96 SEL06 Base Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 3,033 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,500 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% Commercial 4,647 4,700 5,000 5,200 5,600 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% Other 196 200 200 200 200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 7,876 8,000 8,400 8,700 9,300 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% Total Req. (MWh) 8,685 8,800 9,200 9,500 10,200 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% Peak Demand (kW) 1,668 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 3,100 3,300 3,500 3;G00) sle287 Tels: Ones Commercial 4,800 5,100 5,400 6,000 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% Other 200 200 200 200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 8,100 8,600 9,100 10,000 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% Total Req. (MWh) 8,800 9,400 10,000 10,900 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% Peak Demand (kW) 1,600 1,800 1,900 2,050 2.4% 1.1% 0.8% Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commercial 4,700 4,800 4,800 4,900 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Other 200 200 200 200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 8,000 8, 100 8,100 8,200 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Total Req. (MWh) 8,700 8,900 8,900 9,000 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Peak Demand (kW) 1,600 1,700 1,700 1,700 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. His- torical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphi- cally in Figure III-5a and Figure III-5b, respectively. Figure III-5c dis- plays historical and projected base case energy sales by customer classifi- cation. ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (MWh) (Thousones) PEAK DEMAND (KW) (Thousonds) ENERGY SALES (Mwn) (Thousonds) HAINES LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY, INC. TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS 14 13 12 a HISTORICAL 10 LOW SCENARIO eo- Mv es vVavee y rye T T T ere 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 HAINES LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY, INC. PEAK DEMAND HISTORICAL HIGH SCENARIO BASE CASE 174 LOW SCENARIO 164 wo 4 is vp te se 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 HAINES LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY, INC. TOTAL ANNUAL SALES BASE CASE FORECAST “4 3 12-7) wistoricaL Ww rr 10 TOTAL SALES eo -r N He eR BO WON ww Nene Se ay 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Figure III-5a Figure II1-5b Figure III-5c I11-24 Skagway Overview The City of Skagway is located at the northern end of Lynn Canal, northwest of Juneau. Skagway owes much of its early history to the Klondike gold rush of 1898 when the city served as the major transfer point from sea to land along the route to the Klondike. Since the gold rush Skagway has served as a major tourist attraction and as the southern terminus of the White Pass and Yukon Railroad (WP&YR) completed in 1900. Ore mined in the interior of the Yukon Territory of Canada was shipped via the railroad to dock facilities in Skagway for transfer to ocean-going ships. In October 1982 the railroad closed and has yet to reopen. Although the WP&YR is no longer operating, Skagway maintains land access into Canada via the Klondike Highway, completed in 1978. With the closure of the WP&YR in 1982, the community was severely impacted because of the loss of between 120 and 160 jobs. The 1980 population of Skagway was about 800. Current estimates are that the population is at approximately the same level as in 1980 although it may have dropped as much as 15% after the closure of the WP&YR. Increased tourism in the past two years has been the major factor contributing to the resurgence in population. Additionally, ore from the Yukon is once again being shipped through Skagway. Curraugh Resources, a Canadian mining entity, trucks ore from the Cyprus Anvil mine north of Whitehorse to Skagway for transfer to ships. This operation has provided only a few local jobs in Skagway but it does provide a significant increase in electrical load and it also will necessitate that the Klondike Highway remain open year-round. Electrical power is provided to Skagway by Alaska Power and Tele- phone Company (AP&T), a privately-owned utility. Because of the closure of the WP&YR, AP&T shows a decrease in power sales in Skagway over the past few years. Total energy sales were 5,060 MWh and 4,293 MWh in 1980 and 1985, respectively. The total number of electric consumers has increased, however, from 435 in 1980 to 490 in 1985. 111-25 The following table summarizes various historical statistics of AP&T in Skagway: Table III-11 Skagway (AP&T) Historical Statistics Residential Energy Total Total Number of Energy Sales Energy Energy Peak Calendar Residential Sales to WP&YR Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kWh) (MWh) (MWh) (kW) 1977 422 1,822 1,145 5S Uo, 5,995 1,300 1980 399 1,760 943 5,060 5,676 1,296 198] 435 1,781 852 5,120 5.823 1,300 1982 376 1,948 695 5,279 5,976 1,250 1983 386 1,671 123 4,231 4,822 1,100 1984 394 1,549 65 4,147 4,707 1,150 1985 490 1,587 0 4,293 4,829 1,200 Average Annual Increase: 1980-85 4.2% -2.1% - -3.2% -3.2% -1.5% 1983-85 12.7% -2.6% - 0.7% 0.1% 4.4% Forecast Assumptions Growth in Skagway in the future is not expected to be overly sig- nificant. Increases in tourism will contribute to some growth as will ore transshipment activities. Curraugh Resources has indicated that the life of their Yukon ore body is seven years. Other ore bodies may be developed if economic conditions remain favorable. For the purpose of this study we have assumed the electric load of the ore loading/transfer facility in Skagway to be 75,000 kWh per month based on AP&T experienced loads and projections. For the base case this load is assumed to continue through 2006. For the high case it is assumed that this load increases by 20% to approximately 90,000 kWh per month in 1988 based on Curraugh estimates of potential increases in delivery capability. The low case assumes the ore transfer load will decline in 1991 and 1992 and will be totally discontinued by 1993. Total residential and commercial energy sales have been projected to increase based on area population growth. Population is assumed to grow at 1% per year between 1986 and 1991 and at 0.5% per year thereafter for the base case. In the high case the population is assumed to grow at 1.5% per year through 1991 and at 1% per year thereafter. No future population growth is assumed in the low case. Losses have been projected to be 5.8% of total II1-26 generation based on the average for 1980 through 1985. Peak demand is pro- jected to increase based on a rate related to area population growth. Forecast Results The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table II1-12 Skagway Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Avg. Annual Inc. Actual 1986 1991 1996 2006 Be 91-96 96-06 Base Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 1,587 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% Smal] Commer. 1,870 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,900 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Ind./St. Lights 836 1,200 1,800 1,900 1,900 8.5% 1.1% 0.0% Total 4,293 4,600 5,300 5,500 5,700 2.9% 0.4% 0.4% Total Req. (MWh) 4,829 5,200 6,100 6,200 6,500 2.9% 0.4% 0.4% Peak Demand (kW) 1,200 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,500 0% -0% 0.7% High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 1,600 1,800 1,900 2,300 2.3% 1.6% 1.6% Small Commer. 1,800 1,800 1,900 1,900 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Ind./St. Lights 1,200 2,100 2,100 2,300 11.8% 0.0% 0.9% Total 4,600 5,700 5,900 6,500 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% Total Req. (MWh) 5,300 6,400 6,700 7,300 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% Peak Demand (kW) 1,400 1,400 1,500 1,600 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 0% 0% 0% Smal] Commer. 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 0% - 0% -0% Ind./St. Lights 1,200 1,400 800 800 3.1% -10.6% 0.0% Total 4,600 4,800 4,200 4,200 0.9% -2.7% -0% Total Req. (MWh) 5,200 5,400 4,700 4,700 0.9% -2.7% -0% Peak Demand (kW) 1,400 1,400 1,100 1,100 -0% -4.7% -0% II1-27 The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. Historical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphi- cally in Figure III-6a and Figure III-6b, respectively. Figure III-6c dis- plays historical and projected base case energy sales by customer classifi- cation. - ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (MWh) (Thousonds) (Thousonds) PEAK DEMAND (KW) (Thousonds) SALES (Mwn) SKAGWAY POWER AND LIGHT SYSTEM TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS 68-4 64-4 . HIGH SCENARIO HISTORICAL BASE CASE Figure III-6a LOW SCENARIO SKAGWAY POWER AND LIGHT SYSTEM ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND Figure III-6b LOW SCENARIO 09 . oa r ——— ooo 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 SKAGWAY POWER AND LIGHT SYSTEM TOTAL ANNUAL SALES BASE CASE FORECAST Figure III-6c 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 III-28 Kake Overview The community of Kake is located on Kupreanof Island approximately 40 air miles northwest of Petersburg. The population of Kake is estimated to be about 630. The population has increased an average of 0.9% per year since its 1970 level. Economic activity is centered around fishing and fish proc- essing. A logging mill in the area stopped operating last year but no sig- nificant impact on the community has been seen. In the past few years the construction of State-funded public projects such as a new fire hall, health clinic and airport has contributed to the area's employment. Kake also has a deepwater port facility. Electric power is provided by the Tlingit & Haida Regional Electric Authority (THREA), an electric cooperative that serves several smaller com- munities in Southeast. Over the past four years the total energy sales of THREA in Kake have increased from 1,714 MWh in 1982 to 2,373 MWh in 1985, an average annual increase of 11.4%. The total number of customers has only increased from 244 to 258 over this same period, indicating a significant increase in usage per customer which THREA contributes to improvements in meter reading and billing, residential density and reaction to lower power costs. The following table summarizes various historical statistics of THREA-Kake: Table III-13 Kake (THREA) Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peak Calendar Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kWh) (MWh) (MWh) (kW) 1979 N/A 628 N/A 1,483 N/A N/A 1980 N/A 688 N/A 1,466 N/A N/A 198] N/A 706 N/A 1,498 N/A N/A 1982 209 835 3,996 1,714 1,956 496 1983 207 958 4,629 1,873 2,052 520 1984 es 1,016 4,769 2,009 eel) 560 1985 221 1, ¥24 5,070 2,373 2,568 620 Average Annual Increase: 1980-85 - 10.3% - 10.1% - - 1983-85 3.3% 8.1% 3.1% 12.5% 11.9% 9.2% 111-29 Forecast Assumptions No major increases in the population of Kake are anticipated. The community has experienced a return of former residents over the past few years and also a greater percentage of young people remaining in the area after finishing school, providing an increase in population in recent years. The lack of additional employment possibilities, however, should serve as a factor in preventing further significant population increases. The reduction in State funding of public works projects will be felt in Kake as construction activity subsides. The forecast has been based on assumed annual population growth rates of 0.75%, 1.5% and 0% for the base, high and low cases, respectively. The number of electric consumers is projected to increase at the rate of popu- lation growth. Usage per customer is projected to increase in the base and high cases as has been experienced in the recent past. Forecast Results The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table III-14 Kake Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Avg. Annual Inc. Actual 1986 1991 1996 2006 Bo OT-96 96-06 Base Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential Tei) 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,500 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% Com. & Other 1252 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,700 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% Total 23373 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,200 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Total Req. (MWh) 2,568 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,500 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Peak Demand (kW) 620 650 700 750 860 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 1,100 1,300 1,500 2,000 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% Com. & Other 1,300 1,500 1,600 2,200 2.9% 1.36 3.62% Total 2,400 2,800 3,100 4,200 2.9% 2.3% 2.9% Total Req. (MWh) 2,700 3,100 3,400 4,600 2.9% 2.3% 2.9% Peak Demand (kW) 660 760 850 1,130 2.9% 2.3% 2.9% Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 -O% 0% 0% Com. & Other 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 0% 0% - 0% Total 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 0% 0% 0% Total Req. (MWh) 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 0% 0% 0% Peak Demand (kW) 640 640 640 640 0% 0% 0% II1-30 The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. Historical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphi- cally in Figure III-7a and Figure III-7b, respectively. Figure III-7c dis- plays historical and projected base case energy sales by customer classifi- cation. (Thousonds) ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (Mwn) (Thousends) ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND (KW) ENERGY SALES (Mwn) (Thousends) acy 09 o8 0.7 06 KAKE (THREA) TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS LOW SCENARIO 7 T — a) 1982 1987 1992 1997 KAKE (THREA) ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND + HIGH SCENARIO S| 4 (LOW SCENARIO + a = aa 1982 1987 1992 1997 KAKE (THREA) TOTAL ANNUAL SALES BASE CASE FORECAST 1979 TOTAL SALES 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 Figure III-7a Figure III-7b Figure III-7c II1-31 Metlakatla Overview The community .of Metlakatla is located on Annette Island, 15 miles south of Ketchikan. The community is organized under federal law and has a population estimated to be about 1,750 (according to a community official) which is up from 1,050 in 1970 and about 1,370 in 1980. Recent increases in population have resulted from a trend of former residents returning to the area and less out-migration, primarily because of increased economic activity and improved employment possibilities. Although the potential of stable employment appears good, it is not anticipated that much further population expansion will occur. Originally established in its present location in 1887 as a native community, Metlakatla's economy is based on fishing, fish processing, logging and timber processing. The community owns and operates a sawmill] that pro- duces wood chips for Ketchikan Pulp Company of Ketchikan under a long-term contract and a cannery and cold storage facility. Electricity is supplied to Metlakatla by Metlakatla Power and Light (MPL), an electric cooperative. In the past, MPL has supplied much of its power requirements from low cost hydroelectric resources. Low cost power has encouraged the widespread installation of electric heat in Metlakatla. Con- sequently, the usage of electricity per customer is the highest in the State. The need to utilize more expensive diesel generation to supplement hydro generation to supply increased load requirements in recent years has increased overall power costs and appears to have caused a decrease in usage per custo- mer. MPL's peak demand and generation reuirements are significantly dependent on weather conditions because of electric heat requirements. 111-32 The following table summarizes various historical statistics of MPL: Table III-15 Metlakatla Power and Light Historical Statistics Residential Residential Total Total Number of Energy Usage Per Energy Energy Peak Calendar Residential Sales Customer Sales Requirements Demand Year Customers (MWh) (kWh) (MWh) (MWh) (kW) 1975 328 6,813 20,746 4b 17,022 5,280 1980 349 6,471 18,536 14,729 17,484 4,770 1981 361 6,179 17,104 13,242 16,201 4,230 1982 373 6,747 18,079 13,363 155719 3,580 1983 386 6,429 16,656 14,590 17,045 3,880 1984 415 7,416 17,856 18,496 20,036 5,340 1985 442 7,562 17,105 17,246 20,274 7,200 Average Annual Increase: 1975-85 3.0% 1.0% -1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 32cm 1980-85 4.8% 3.2% -1.6% 3.2% 3.0% 8.6% 1983-85 7.0% 8.5% 1.3% 8.7% 9.1% 36.2% Forecast Assumptions The forecast for MPL has been developed separately for each custo- mer class and projections of the number of customers are based on assumed population growth. Although a stable economy is anticipated, further popu- lation growth as has been experienced in the past few years is not expected to continue. Population growth is assumed to be 0.5%, 1.0% and 0.0% per year for the base, high and low forecast scenarios, respectively. The number of residential and small commercial customers has been projected to increase relative to population growth. Residential usage per customer has been projected assuming typical heating degree days and commer- cial usage per customer has been projected to increase with growth in the area's per capita income. Per capita income has been assumed to grow at 1% per year for the base and high cases and at 0.5% per year for the low case. No change has been assumed in large commercial customer usage beyond present levels until 1996. Forecast Results 111-33 The results of the forecast are summarized in the following table for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table III-16 Metlakatla Power and Light Summary of Forecast Results 1985 Actual 1986 1991 1996 2006 Base Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 7,562 7,500 7,700 7,900 8,200 Smal] Commer. 1,934 1,900 2,100 2,400 2,900 Large Commer. 6,214 6,200 6,200 6,300 8,200 Other 1,536 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,800 Total 17,246 17,200 17,600 18,200 21,100 Total Req. (MWh) 20,274 20,100 20,600 21,200 24,600 Peak Demand (kW) 7,200 6,200 6,400 6,700 8,200 High Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 7,600 7,900 8,300 9,100 Smal] Commer. 1,900 2,200 2,500 3, 100 Large Commer. 6,200 6,200 6,300 8,200 Other 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,900 Total 17,200... 17;5800° ° 18,.760* . 22,300 Total Req. (MWh) 20,100 20,900 21,900 26,000 Peak Demand (kW) 6,200 6,500 7,000 8,800 Low Case: Sales of Electricity (MWh): Residential 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 Smal] Commer. 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,300 Large Commer. 6,200 6,200 6,200 6,200 Other 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,600 Total 17,100. 17,200 17,800 17,680 Total Req. (MWh) 20,000 20,100 20,200 20,600 Peak Demand (kW) 6, 100 6,200 6,200 6,400 Avg. Annual Inc. 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 20eh 2.2% 2.2% sn 04% 62. -O% Op. 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% Ov6% 0.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.5%: 258% 2.5% 0% 0.4% 2.7% 1.3% -O% 1.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% Wee) TS: 203% -0% 0% - 0% 1.08 1.0% 1.0% -0% -0% 0% 0% -O% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% O.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% II1-34 The results of the forecast are shown by year in Section IV. Historical and projected energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphi- cally in Figure III1-8a and Figure III-8b, respectively. Figure III-8c dis- plays historical and projected base case energy sales by customer classifi- cation. : (Theusengs) ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (MWh) 27 2 2 2 23 22 ” ct) 7 - 6 METLAKATLA POWER AND LIGHT TOTAL ANNUAL ENERCY REQUIREMENTS Figure III-8a HISTORICAL (Thousends) PEAK DEMANO (Kw) (Thousengs) SALCS (Mn) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2008 METLAKATLA POWER AND LIGHT ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND Figure III-8b 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 METLAKATLA POWER AND LIGHT TOTAL ANNUAL SALES BASE CASE FORECAST TOTAL SALES Figure III-8c 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 SECTION IV COMBINED LOAD FORECAST The individual community forecasts have been combined to present an aggregate total for all of Southeast. Load estimates prepared concurrently for the Juneau area and described in the report entitled "Juneau Area Electric Load Forecast" are included in the aggregate forecast. Total energy require- ments and peak demand for each forecast scenario, base, high and low, have been totaled separately. Results shown for Juneau as base, high and low cases in this section relate to the base population case, the high population case and the low population case, respectively, as described in the Juneau area forecast report. Because the seasonality of loads was not considered in this study, the aggregate peak demand shown is non-coincidental. The Power Authority has provided estimated electric load require- ments of the Quartz Hill molybdenum mine as prepared by U.S. Borax. It is unknown at this time whetner or not U.S. Borax will proceed with further development of Quartz Hill and at what time full-scale development would begin. For the purpose of this report, the Quartz Hill project is assumed to begin full-scale operation in 1994 with the construction phase beginning in 1989. Quartz Hill power requirements are shown only in the high forecast scenario table, firstly because of the uncertainties concerning the load and secondly, to correspond with the Quartz Hill impact assumptions used in the high case of the Ketchikan community forecast. IV-2 Results of the aggregate forecast are summarized in the following table for each of the three forecast scenarios: Table IV-1 Aggregate Southeast Alaska Load Forecast Summary of Forecast Results (1) Average Annual Increase 1986 1991-196 2006 TSHEOT —TSST-3TUSE=OB Base Case (Probable Scenario): Total Energy Req. (MWh) 557,000 615,200 672,500 766, 100 2.0% 1.8% eae Non-Coin. Peak Demand (kW) 115,190 128,900 142,550 163,460 2.3% 2.0% 1.4% High Scenario: Total Energy Requirements (MWh): Communities 565,600 704,400 843,300 1,094,200 4.5% Soy 2.6% Quartz Hill 0 0 250, 300 478,200 Total BES, 600 704,400 1,093,600 1,572,400 Non-Coincidental Peak Demand (kW): Communities 117,080 143,440 176,020 231,460 4.1% 4.2% 2.8% Quartz Hill 47,500 88,000 0 0 Total T1708 YE3,48H — 2235 — ITS. AO Low Scenario: Total Energy Req. (MWh) 550,400 568,400 591,500 604,400 0. 6% 0.8% 0.2% Non-Coin. Peak Demand (kW) 113,640 119,040 123,740 127,040 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% (1) Summation of forecasts for Haines, Kake, Ketchikan, Metlakatla, Petersburg, Sitka, Skagway, Wrangell and Juneau. Juneau area forecast results are based on “population based" forecasts. IV-3 The aggregate forecasts are shown by year in a series of tables and figures. Total energy requirements and non-coincidental peak demand for the base case are shown in Table IV-2 and Table IV-3, respectively. Tables IV-4 through IV-7 show total energy requirements and non-coincidental peak demand for the high and low forecast scenarios. The aggregate base forecast exclud- ing Metlakatla, Kake and Sitka is shown in Table IV-8 for total energy requirements and in Table IV-9 for non-coincidental peak demand. Total aggre- gate annual energy requirements and peak demand are shown graphically in Fig- ure IV-la and Figure IV-lb, respectively. The base, high and low scenarios are shown on these figures. Figure IV-lc displays the total base case energy requirements by major community to provide an indication of the magnitude of the various community loads in relation to each other. Aggregate South East Alaska Load Forecast Annual Energy Requirement (MWh) Base Case Forecast (Probable Scenario) seeeee JUNEAU (1) ------- SUBTOTAL TOTAL YEAR WAINES KAKE KETCHIKAN METLAKATLA PETERSBURG SITKA SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA = AELEP JUNEAU = ALL. COMMUNITIES 1981 6,995 WA 88, 913 16,201 21,000 53,461 5,823 13,192 13,078 155,708 168,786 376,351 1982 8,319 1,956 98, 984 15,711 22,266 66,138 5,976 13,501 16,761 188,586 205,327 436,178 1983 7,855 2,052 99,556 17,065 22,839 90,101 &, 822, -12,893 18,725 209,092 227.817 “686,980 1986 8,609 2,211 106,227 20,036 23.661 98,224 = &, 707 12,564 21,796 225,156 246,950 523, 188 1985 8,685 2,568 108,422 20,276 27,547 105,003 4,829 13,651 22,261 238,968 261, 189 552, 168 1986 8,800 2,600 111,400 20,100 29,100 101,300 5,200 18,800 23,300 236,400 259,700 557,000 1987 8,800 2,700 122,000 20,200 29,600 98,800 5,900 19,600 23,400 235,300 258, 700 566, 300 1988 8,900 2,700 += 127,600 20,300 30,000 100,900 5,900 19,800 23,600 233,000 256,600 572, 700 1989 9,000 2,700 136,700 20,400 30,400 103,200 5,900 20,100 26,100 238,300 262,400 590,800 1990 9,100 2,800 140,000 20,500 30,900 105,500 6,000 20,300 26,700 243,800 268,500 603,600 1991 9,200 2,800 144,000 20,600 «31,300 107,800 6,100 20,600 25,100 247,700 272,800 615,200 1992 9,200 2,900 150,400 20,700 31,700 110,100 6,100 20,800 25,600 251,700 277,300 629,200 1993 9,300 2,900 153,700 20,800 32,100 112,400 6,100 21,100 26,100 255,800 281,900 640, 300 1996 9.4600 2,900 157,200 20,900 32,500 114,800 6,100 21,300 26,500 260,000 286,500 651,600 1995 9,600 3,000 160,800 21,000 32,900 117,300 6,200 21,600 27,100 264,300 291,400 663,600 1996 9,500 3,000 164,500 21,200 «33,300 119,700 6,200 21,900 27,300 265,900 293,200 672,500 1997 9,600 3,100 167,600 21,500 33,700 122,000 6,200 22,200 28,000 267,600 295,600 681,500 1998 9,600 3,100 170,900 21,900 34,100 126,600 6,200 22,400 28,300 269,400 297,700 690, 300 1999 9,700 3,200 176,200 22,200 34,500 126,800 6,300 22,700 28,500 271,200 299,700 699, 300 2000 9,800 3,200 177,700 22,500 35,000 129,400 6,300 23,000 28,800 273,000 301,800 708; 700 2001 9,800 3,200 180,500 22,800 35,400 132,000 6,300 23,300 29,200 275,600 304,800 718, 100 2002 9,900 = 3,300: 182,700 23,200 35,800 134,600 6,300 23,600 29,600 278,200 307,800 727,200 2003 10,000 3,300 185,000 23,500 36,300 137,400 6,400 23,900 30,000 280,800 310,800 736,600 2006 10,000 3,400 187,200 23:900 36,700 139,000 6,400 24,200 30,400 283,500 313,900 766, 700 2005 10,100 3,400 189,500 26,300 37,100 143,100 6,400 26,500 30,800 286,200 317,000 755,400 2006 10,200 3,500 191,800 26,600 37,600 146,100 6,500 24,800 31,300 289,700 321,000 766, 100 (1) - Juneau area loads correspond to “population based" cases. See the report entitled "Juneau Area Load Forecast" for further detail. 2-AL PLGeL Aggregate South East Alaske Load Forecast Annual Non-Coincidental Peak Demand (KW) Base Case Forecast (Probable Scenario) seceee JUNEAU (1) ------- SUBTOTAL TOTAL YEAR HAINES KAKE KETCHIKAN METLAKATLA PETERSBURG SITKA SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA JUNEAU ALL COMMUNITIE 1981 =: 1,920 WA 16, 900 1,300 2,750 3,260 39,600 42,860 85,560 1982 1,536 696 ~—-'19, 100 3,580 4,330 12,600 1,250 3,000 3,360 41,600 44,960 90,852 1983 1,536 520 20,800 3,880 4,330 12,055 1,100 2,550 4,080 46,000 50,080 96,851 1984 1,992 560 21,600 5,340 4,670 12,343 1,150 3,000 4,800 48,590 53,390 104,045 1985 1,668 620 25,500 7,200 5,000 14,738 1,200 3,270 5,280 52,440 57,720 116,916 1986 =: 1,600 650 23,600 6,200 5,500 15,6460 1,400 6,000 5,300 51,500 56,800 115,190 1987 1, 700 660 26, 800 6,200 5,600 15,500 1,400 4,100 5,300 51,300 56,600 118,560 1988 1,700 670 27,600 6,300 5,700 15,900 1,400 4,100 5,400 50,800 56,200 119,570 1989 1,700 680 26,900 6,300 5,800 16,300 1,400 4,200 5,500 51,900 57,400 122,680 1990 1,700 690 = 29, 700 6,300 5,900 16,700 1,400 4,200 5,600 53,100 58,700 125,290 1991 1,700 700 =: 31,500 6,400 6,000 17,200 1,400 4,300 5,700 546,000 59,700 128,900 1992, 1,700 710 34,000 6,400 6,000 17,600 1,400 4,300 5,800 54,900 60,700 132,810 1993 1,700 720 34, 800 6,500 6,100 18,100 1,400 6,400 6,000 55,800 61,800 135,520 1996 1,800 730 35,700 6,500 6,200 18,500 1,400 4,400 6,100 56,700 62,800 138,030 1995 1,800 760 36,500 6,600 6,300 19,000 1,400 4,400 6,200 57,600 63,800 140,540 1996 1,800 750 37,400 6,700 6,300 19,500 1,400 4,500 6,200 58,000 64,200 162,550 1997 1,800 760 38,200 6,800 6,400 19,900 1,400 4,500 6,600 58,300 64,700 166,660 1998 1,800 770 39,000 7,000 6,500 20,400 1,400 4,600 6,500 58,700 65,200 146,670 1999 1,800 780 39,800 7,100 6,600 20,800 1,400 4,600 6,500 59,100 65,600 148,480 2000 = 1,800 790 40,600 7,300 6,700 21,300 1,400 4,700 6,600 59,500 66,100 150,690 2001 1,800 800 41,300 7,400 6,700 21,800 1,400 4,700 6,700 60,100 66,800 152,700 2002 1,900 810 41,900 7,600 6,800 22,300 1,400 4,800 6,800 60,600 67,400 154,910 2003 1,900 830 42,400 7,700 6,900 22,800 1,400 4,800 6,800 61,200 68,000 156,730 2004 1,900 840 43,000 7,900 7,000 23,100 1,400 4,900 6,900 61,800 68,700 158,740 2005 1,900 850 43,500 8,100 7,100 23,900 1,400 4,900 7,000 62,400 69,400 161,050 2006 1,900 860 44,100 8,200 7,200 26,500 1,400 5,000 7,200 63,100 70,300 163,460 * - Juneeu area loads correspond to “population based” cases. z the report entitled "Juneau Area Load Forecast" for further detail. €-AL Fgey . « Aggregate South East Alaska Load Forecast Annual Energy Requirement (MWh) High Scenario Forecast soceee JUNEAU (1) ------- SUBTOTAL TOTAL QUARTZ HILL YEAR WAIWES KAKE KETCHIKAN METLAKATLA PETERSBURG SITKA SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA AEL&P = JUNEAU ALL COMMUNITIES (2) 1981 6,995 WA 88,913 16,201 21,000 53,461 5,823 13,192 13,078 155,708 168,786 374,351 1962 8,319 1,956 98, 984 15,711 22,266 64,138 5,976 13,501 16,761 188,586 205,327 436,178, 1983 7,855 2,052 99,556 17,065 22,839 90,101 4,822 12,893 18,725 209,092 227,817 484,960 1984 8,609 Z,avt 106; 227 20,036 23,661 98,226 4,707 12,564 21,796 225,156 266,950 523,188 1985 8,685 2,568 108,422 20,274 27,547 105,003 4,829 13,651 22,261 238,968 261,189 552,168 1986 8,800 2,700 112,600 20,100 29,300 101,300 5,300 19,000 23,900 242,600 266,500 565,600 °- 1987 8,900 2,700 144,200 20,300 29,900 100,200 5,900 19,900 26,600 267,600 272,200 604,200 -- 1988 9,100 2,800 160,600 20,400 30,500 103,900 6,200 20,300 25,400 251,200 276,600 630,600 + 1989 9,200 2,900 181,500 20,600 31,200 107,800 6,300 20,700 26,200 258,900 285,100 665 , 300 <= 1990 9,300 3,000 186; 300 20,700 31,800 111,900 6,400 21,100 27,000 267,000 294,000 684 ,500 °- 1991 9,400 3,100 191,800 20,900 32,500 116,100 6,400 21,500 28,200 274,500 302,700 704,400 :- 1992 9,500 3,100 20s; 200 21,100 33,100 120,300 6,500 21,900 29,000 282,200 311,200 731,900 °- 1993 9,600 3,200 216,400 21,200 33,700 124,600 6,500 22,300 29,900 290,100 320,000 757,500 14,400 1996 9,800 3,300 228,500 21,400 34,300 129,000 6,600 22,700 30,800 296,300 329,100 784,700 199; 800 1995 9,900 3,400 261,600 21,600 34,900 133,700 6,700 23,200 31,800 306,800 338,600 813,600 250,300 1996 10,000 3,400 255,700 21,900 35,600 138,500 6,700 23,600 33,100 314,800 347,900 843,300 250,300 1997 10, 100 3,500 262,800 22,300 36,200 143,100 6,800 264,100 34,100 323,100 357,200 866, 100 453,200 1998 = 10,200 3,600 270,100 22,600 36,900 148,000 6,800 26,500 35,100 331,700 366,800 889,500 475,600 1999 10,200 3,700 277,700 23,000 37,600 153,100 6,900 25,000 36,100 340,400 376,500 913,700 476,100 2000 = 8=610,300 3,800 285,600 23,400 38,300 158,400 6,900 25,500 37,200 349,500 386,700 938,900 476,100 2001 +=10,400 4,000 292,900 23,800 39,000 164,000 7,000 26,000 38,600 358,400 397,000 964, 100 476,300 2002 = 10,500 4,100 299,400 24,200 39,700 169,800 7,100 26,500 39,700 367,500 407,200 968,500 476,300 2003 §=10,600 4,200 306,100 24,700 40,400 175,800 7,100 27,100 40,900 376,900 417,800 1,013,800 476,200 2006 10,700 4,300 313,000 25,100 41,200 180,500 7,200 27,600 42,100 386,500 428,600 1,038,200 478,200 2005 10,800 4,400 320,100 25,600 62,000 188,700 7,300 28,200 43,200 396,400 439,600 1,066, 700 478,200 2006 «8610, 900 4,600 327,400 26,000 42,800 195,600 7,300 28,700 44,500 406,400 450,900 1,094,200 478,200 (1) - Juneeu eres loads correspond to “population based" cases. See the report entitled "Juneau Area Losd Forecast" for further detail. (2) - Estimated by U.S. Borax. Assumes full operation begins in 1994. prAI SL9eL . «| * Aggregate South East Alaske Load Forecast Annual Non-Coincidental Peak Demand (KW) High Scenario Forecast aoe JUNEAU (1) ------- SUBTOTAL TOTAL QUARTZ HILL HAINES KAKE KETCHIKAN METLAKATLA PETERSBURG SITKA SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA AEL&P = JUNEAU ALL COMMUNITIES (2) 1,920 WA 16,900 4,230 4,200 11,400 1,300 2,750 3,260 39,600 42,860 85,560 1,536 496 19, 100 3,580 4,330 12,600 1,250 3,000 3,360 41,600 44,960 90,852 1,536 520 20,800 3,880 4,330 12,055 1,100 2,550 4,080 46,000 50,080 96,851 1,992 560 21,600 5,340 4,670 12,3463 1,150 3,000 6,800 48,590 53,390 106 045 1,668 620 25,500 7,200 5,000 14,738 1,200 3,270 5,280 52,4460 57,720 116,916 1,650 660 23,800 6,200 5,570 15,400 1,400 4,000 5,500 52,900 58,400 117,080 °° 1,700 680 29,400 6,300 5,690 15,700 1,400 6,100 5,600 54,000 59,600 124,570 - 1,700 700 31,400 6,300 5,810 16,400 1,400 4,200 5,800 54,800 60,600 128,510 -- 1,700 720. 34,200 6,400 5,930 17,200 1,400 6,300 6,000 56,400 62,400 134,250 - 1,700 760 35,300 6,500 6,050 18,000 1,400 4,400 6,200 58,200 64,400 138,490 -- 1,800 760 37,400 6,500 6,180 16,800 1,400 4,400 6,400 59,800 66,200 143,440 °- 1,600 780 41,700 6,600 6,290 19,600 1,400 4,500 6,600 61,500 68,100 150,770 -- 1,800 790 = 4,400 6,700 6,410 20,400 1,400 4,600 6,800 63,200 70,000 156,500 0 1,800 810 47,300 6,800 6,530 21,200 1,500 4,600 7,000 65,000 72,000 162,540 47,500 1,800 830 50,500 6,800 6,650 22,100 1,500 4,700 7,300 66,900 76,200 169,080 47,500 1,900 850 54,000 7,000 6,770 23,000 1,500 4,800 7,600 68,600 76,200 176,020 47,500 1,900 870 55,700 7,100 6,890 23,900 1,500 4,900 7,800 70,400 78,200 180 , 960 47,500 1,900 900 57,500 7,300 7,020 24,900 1,500 4,900 8,000 72,300 80,300 186, 220 88,000 1,900 920 59,300 7,500 7,150 25,800 1,500 5,000 8,200 76,200 682,400 191,470 88,000 1,900 950 61,300 7,700 7,280 26,900 1,500 5,100 8,500 76,200 84,700 197,330 88,000 2,000 960 63,000 7,900 7,420 27,900 1,500 5,200 68,800 78,100 86,900 202,800 88,000 2,000 1,010 64,600 8,000 7,550 29,000 1,500 5,300 9,100 80,100 89,200 206, 160 88,000 2,000 1,040 66,300 8,200 7,690 30,200 1,500 5,400 9,300 82,200 91,500 213,830 88,000 2,000 1,070 67,900 8,400 7,860 31,100 1,600 5,500 9,600 84,300 93,900 219,310 88,000 2,000 1,100 69, 700 8,600 7,980 32,600 1,600 5,500 9,900 86,400 96,300 225, 380 88,000 2,000 1,130 71,400 8,800 8,130 34,000 1,600 5,600 10,200 88,600 98,800 231,460 88,000 (1) - Juneeu eres loads correspond to “population based” cases. See the report entitled "Juneeu Area Load Forecast" for further detail. (2) - Estimated by U.S. Borax. Assumes full operation begins in 1994. SAI 9L9PL Aggregate South East Alaska Load Forecast Annual Energy Requirement (MWh) Low Scenario Forecast settee JUNEAU (1) ------- SUBTOTAL TOTAL YEAR MAINES — KAKE KETCHIKAN METLAKATLA PETERSBURG SITKA SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA = AELEP «JUNEAU ALL. COMMUNITIES 1981 6,995 WA 88,913 16,201 21,000 53,461 5,823 13,192 13,078 155,708 168,786 376,351 1982 8,319 = ‘1,956 98, 984 15,711 22; 266 66,138 5,976 13,501 16,741 188,586 205,327 436,178 1983 7,855 2,052. «99,556 17,065 22.839 90,101 &,822,—«:12,893 18,725 209,092 227,817 484, 980 1984 8,609 2.211 -—:106,.227 20/036 —-23,661 98,226 4,707 12,564 ~—.21, 79% 225,156 246,950 523, 188 1985 8,685 2,568 108,422 20,276 «27,5467 105,003 4,829 »—-'13,651 22,241 238,968 261, 189 552, 168 1986 8,700 2,600 110,200 20,000 29,000 101,300 5,200 18,600 22,800 232,000 254,800 550,400 1987 8,800 2,600 119,300 20,000 29,200 97,500 5,800 17,900 22,400 226,700 249, 100 550, 200 1988 8,800 2,600 123,500 20,000 29,500 98,200 5,800 16,800 22,100 220,200 262,300 547,500 1989 8,800 2,600 125,300 20,100 29,700 99,000 5,800 15,600 22,600 225,100 247,700 554,600 1990 8,800 2,600 127,000 20;100 30,000 99,700 5,800 15,600 23,200 230,200 253,400 563,000 1991 8,900 2,600 128,900 20,100 30,200 100,400 5,400 15,600 23,500 232,800 256,300 568, 400 1992 8,900 2,600 130,600 20,100 30,400 101,100 5,100 15,600 23,700 235,600 259, 300 573, 700 1993 8,900 2,600 ~—-132,400 20,200 30,600 101,800 4,700 15,600 24,100 238,300 262,400 579,200 1996 8,900 2,600 134,200 20,200 30,800 102,400 4,700 15,600 26,500 241,100 265,600 585,000 1995 8,900 2,600 136, 100 20,200 31,000 103,100 4,700 15,600 246,800 266,000 268,800 591,000 1996 8,900 =. 2,600 138,000 20,200 31.200 103,600 4,700 +~—-*15,600 24,700 262,000 266,700 591,500 1997 8,900 2,600 139,900 20,200 31,400 104,100 4,700 15,600 26,500 240,000 266,500 591,900 1998 8,900 2,600 141,900 20/300 31,500 104,600 4,700 15,600 26,300 238,000 262,300 592,400 1999 8,900 2,600 143,900 20,300 31,700 105,100 4,700 15,600 26,200 236,000 260,200 593,000 2000 8,900 2,600 145,900 20,300 31,900 105,600 4,700 15,600 24,000 234,100 258, 100 593,600 2001 8,900 =. 2,600 147,500 20,300 32,100 106,100 4,700 =—-'15,600 24,000 233,800 257,800 595,600 2002 8,900 2,600 148,400 20,400 32,300 106,600 4,700 15,600 24,100 233,400 257,500 597,000 2003 8,900 2,600 149,300 20,400 32,500 107,100 %,700 15,600 26,100 233,100 257,200 598, 300 2006 9,000 2,600 150,300 20,400 32,700 106,600 4,700 15,600 246,100 232,800 256,900 598 , 800 2005 9,000 2,600 151,200 20,500 32,900 108,200 4,700 15,600 26,200 232,400 256,600 601,300 2006 9,000 2,600 152,200 20,600 33,100 108,700 4,700 15,600 26,400 233,500 257,900 606,400 (1) - Juneau eree loads correspond to “population based" cases. See the report entitled "Juneau Area Load Forecast" for further detail. Q-AI 9LGeL Aggregate South East Alaska Load Forecast Annual Non-Coincidentsl Peak Demand (KW) Low Scenario Forecast sercee JUNEAU (1) ------- SUBTOTAL TOTAL YEAR WAINES — KAKE KETCHIKAN METLAKATLA PETERSBURG SITKA SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA = AELEP = JUNEAU = ALL COMMUNITIES 1981 1,920 WA 16,900 4,230 4,200 11,400 1,300 2,750 3,260 39,600 42,860 85,560 1982 1,536 496 19,100 3:580 4,330 12,600 1,250 3,000 3,360 41,600 44,960 90,852 1983 1,536 520 20,800 3,880 6,330 12,055 1,100 2,550 4,080 46,000 50,080 96,851 1984 1,992 560 21,600 5,340 4,670 12,343 1,150 3,000 6,800 48,590 53,390 106; 065 1985 1,826 620 25,500 7,200 5,000 14,738 1,200 3,270 5,280 52,4460 57,720 117,072 1986 1,600 640 ©=—.23,300 6,100 5,500 15,400 1,400 3,900 5,200 50,600 55,800 113,640 1987 1,600 640 26,200 6,100 5,600 15,200 1,400 3,800 5,100 49,400 54,500 115,060 1988 1,600 640 26,600 6,200 5,600 15,400 1,400 3,600 5,000 48,000 53,000 114,060 1989 1,600 640 27,000 6,200 5,700 15,500 1,400 3,600 5,200 49,100 54,300 115,740 1990 1,700 640 27,400 6,200 5,700 15,600 1,400 3,600 5,300 50,200 55,500 117,540 1991 1,700 640 27,900 6,200 5,800 15,800 1,400 3,400 5,400 50,800 56,200 119,040 1992 1,700 640 28, 300 6,200 5,800 15,900 1,400 3,400 5,400 51,300 56,700 120,040 1993 1,700 640 28, 700 6,200 5,800 16,000 1,100 3,400 5,500 51,900 57,400 120,940 199% 1,700 640 29,200 6,200 5;900 16,200 1,100 3,400 5,600 52,600 58,200 122,540 1995 1,700 640 29,600 6,200 5,900 16,300 1,100 3,400 5,700 53,200 58,900 123, 740 1996 1,700 640 30, 100 6,200 5,900 16,400 1,100 3,400 5,600 52,700 58,300 123,760 1997 1,700 640 30,600 6,200 6,000 16,500 1,100 3,600 5,600 52,300 57,900 126 060 1998 1,700 640 31,100 6,300 6,000 16,600 1,100 3,400 5,500 51,900 57,400 126,240 1999 1,700 640 31,500 6,300 6,000 16,700 1,100 3,400 5,500 51,500 57,000 126,340 2000 1,700 640 32,000 6,300 6,100 16,800 1,100 3,400 5,500 51,000 56,500 126,540 2001 +1, 700 640 32,400 6,300 6,100 16,900 1,100 3,400 5,500 51,000 56,500 125,040 2002 = 1,700 640 32,600 6,300 6,200 17,000 1,100 3,400 5,500 50,900 56,400 125,340 2003 = 1,700 640 32,900 6,300 6,200 17,100 1,100 3,400 5,500 50,800 56,300 125,640 2006 = 1,700 640 33,100 6,300 6,200 17,000 1,100 3,600 5,500 50,700 56,200 125,640 2005 = 1,700 640 33,300 6,300 6,300 17,300 1,100 3,400 5,500 50,700 56,200 126,260 2006 =: 1,700 640 33,600 6,400 6,300 17,400 1,100 3,400 5,600 50,900 56,500 127,060 (1) - Juneau ere loads correspond to "population based” cases. See the report entitled “Juneau Area Load Forecast" for further detail. CZ-AT 9L9eL Aggregate South East Alaska Load Forecast Excluding Kake, Metlakatla, and Sitka Annual Energy Requirement (MWh) Base Case Forecast settee JUNEAU (1) ------- SUBTOTAL TOTAL YEAR HAINES KETCHIKAN PETERSBURG | SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA = AELRP_— JUNEAU ALL COMMUNITIES 1981 6,995 88,913 21,000 5,823 13,192 13,078 155,708 168,786 306, 709 1982 8,319 98,984 = 22,266 5/976 13,501 16,761 188,586 205,327 356,373 1983 7,855 99,556 22,839 4,822 12,893 18,725 209,092 227,817 375, 782 1984 8,609 106,227 23,661 4,707 12,564 21,796 225,156 246,950 402; 718 1985 8,685 108,422 27,547 4,829 13,651 22,261 238,968 261, 189 426,323 1986 8,800 111,400 29,100 5,200 18,800 23,300 236,400 259,700 433,000 1987 8,800 122,000 29,600 5,900 19,600 23,400 235,300 258, 700 446,600 1988 8,900 127,600 30,000 5,900 19,800 23,600 233,000 256,600 448,800 1989 9,000 136,700 30,400 5,900 20,100 26,100 238,300 262,400 464,500 1990 9,100 160,000 30,900 6,000 20,300 24,700 263,800 268,500 476,800 1991 9,200 146,000 31,300 6,100 20,600 25,100 267,700 272,800 484,000 1992 9,200 150,400 31,700 6,100 20,800 25,600 251,700 277,300 495,500 1993 9,300 153,700 32,100 6,100 21,100 26,100 255,800 281,900 504,200 19% 9,600 157,200 32,500 6,100 21,300 26,500 260,000 286,500 513,000 1995 9,400 160,800 32,900 6,200 21.600 27,100 264,300 291,400 522,300 1996 9,500 164,500 33,300 6,200 21,900 27,300 265,900 293,200 528,600 1997 9,600 167,600 33,700 6,200 22,200 28,000 267,600 295,600 534,900 1998 9,600 170,900 34,100 6,200 22,400 28,300 269,400 297,700 540,900 1999 9,700 176,200 34,500 6,300 22,700 28,500 271,200 299,700 547,100 2000 9,800 177,700 35,000 6,300 23,000 28,800 273,000 301,800 553,600 2001 9,800 180,500 35,400 6,300 23,300 29,200 275,600 304,800 560, 100 2002 9,900 182,700 35,800 6,300 23,600 29,600 278,200 307,800 566, 100 2003 10,000 185,000 36,300 6,400 23,900 30,000 280,800 310,800 572,400 2006 10,000 187,200 36,700 6,400 26,200 30,400 283,500 313,900 578,400 2005 10,100 189,500 37,100 6,400 26,500 30,800 286,200 317,000 586 ,600 2006 10,200 191,800 37,600 6,500 26,800 31,300 289,700 321,000 591,900 (1) - Juneau area loads correspond to “population based" cases. See the report entitled "Juneau Area Load Forecast" for further detail. 8-AI F1geL Aggregate South East Alaska Load Forecast Excluding Kake, Metlakatle, and Sitka Annual Non-Coincidental Peak Demand (KW) Base Case Forecast seeeee JUNEAU (1) ~------ SUBTOTAL TOTAL YEAR MAINES KETCHIKAN PETERSBURG | SKAGWAY WRANGELL GHEA AELEP JUNEAU ALL COMMUN ITIE 1981 1,920 1,300 2,750 3,260 39,600 42,860 69,930 1982 1,536 1,250 3,000 3,360 41,600 44,960 76,176 1983 1,536 1, 100 2,550 4,080 46,000 50,080 80,396 1986 1,992 15150 35000 4,800 48,590 53,390 85,802 1985 1,668 1,200 3,270 5,280 52,460 57,720 96,358 1986 1,600 23,600 += 5,500 1,400 4,000 5,300 51,500 56,800 92,900 1987 1,700 26,800 5,600 1,400 4,100 5,300 51,300 56,600 9%, 200 1988 1,700 27,600 5,700 1,400 4,100 5,400 50,800 56,200 96, 700 1989 1,700 28,900 5,800 1,400 4,200 5,500 51,900 57,400 99,600 1990 1,700 29:700 5,900 1,400 4,200 5,600 53,100 58,700 101; 600 1991 1,700 31,500 6,000 1,400 4,300 5,700 54,000 59,700 106600 1992 1,700 34,000 6,000 15400 4,300 5,800 56,900 60,700 108; 100 1993 1,700 34,800 6,100 1,600 4,400 6,000 55,800 61,800 110,200 1996 1,800 35,700 6,200 1,400 4,400 6,100 56,700 62,800 112,300 1995 1,800 36,500 6,300 1,400 4,400 6,200 57,600 63,800 116,200 1996 1,800 37,600 6,300 1,400 4,500 6,200 58,000 64,200 115,600 1997 1,800 38,200 «6,400 1,400 4,500 6,400 58,300 64,700 117,000 1998 1,800 39,000 6,500 15400 4,600 6,500 58,700 65,200 118,500 1999 1,800 39,800 6,600 1,400 4,600 6,500 59,100 65,600 119,800 2000 1,800 40,600 6,700 1,400 4,700 6,600 59,500 66,100 121: 300 2001 1,800 41,300 6,700 1,400 4,700 6,700 60,100 66,800 122, 700 2002 1,900 61,900 6,800 1,400 6,800 6,800 60,600 67,400 126,200 2003 1,900 42,400 6,900 1,400 4,800 6,800 61,200 68,000 125,400 2006 1,900 43,000 7,000 1,400 4,900 6,900 61,800 68,700 126, 900 2005 1,900 43,500 7,100 1,400 4,900 7,000 62,400 69,400 128, 200 2006 1,900 44,100 = 7, 200 1,400 5,000 7,200 63,100 70,300 129,900 (1) - Juneau area loads correspond to “population based" cases. See the report entitled "Juneau Area Load Forecast" for further detail. 6-AI PLGeL ENERGY (Mwn) (Mithons) PEAK DEMAND (Kw) (Trovsonds) (Trousongs) ENERGY (mewn) SOUTH EAST ALASKA LOAD FORECAST TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (Mwn) HIGH SCENARIO WiTm QUARTZ HILL LOw SCENARIO om T zs — 98) 1986 1991 1996 2001 SOUTH EAST ALASKA LOAD FORECASTS ANNUAL NON=COINCIDENTAL PEAK DEMAND HIGH SCENARIO WITH QUARTZ HILL 2006 Ee LOw SCENARIO T = a 198) 1966 1991 1996 2001 AGGREGATE SOUTH EAST LOAD FORECAST BASE CASE TOTA ENERGY REQUIREMENT 198) 1986 1991 » 1996 2001 2006 Figure IV-1a Figure IV-1b Figure IV-1c