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Home My WebLink AboutMarket Forecast, Electric Energy Requirements in Yukon 1981-1982 & 2001-2002 pub 1982eg Aer Sees ot Swe Alaska Power Authority os ney eh! +O. 109 LIBRARY COPY . cat ie , Fe UPDATE: MARKET FORECAST, ELECTRIC ENERGY REQUIREMENTS IN YUKON 1981/'82 - 2001/'02 LIBRARY COPY HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. ENE - ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND PLANNING 109 WINNIPEG, CANADA HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. UPDATE: MARKET FORECAST, ELECTRIC ENERGY REQUIREMENTS IN YUKON 1981/'82 - 2001/'02 Prepared For: Northern Canada Power Commission, 7909 - 5ist Avenue, (P.0. Box 5700, Station 'L") Edmonton, Alberta T6C 448 Prepared By: Hildebrandt-Young & Associates Ltd., 2nd Floor - Dublin Place, 1666 Dublin Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3H OH1 April, 1982 HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. CHAPTER ONE CHAPTER TWO 2al Zy2 CHAPTER THREE WWW Ww PwNr CHAPTER FOUR > a= PL > > PP =a . w Mme MP MP me P+ Ww HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -i- TABLE OF CONTENTS Page BMBGUTIVE SOMMBRY ..oc cece ccc ce cceseevececesesece vii TRTROQUCTION: 6 v's 0siso 00 v0 seins s ssceecce saewaiemes 1 HISTORICAL ELECTRICAL CONSUMPTION PATTERNS ........ 6 Domestic Consumption Of Electricity ............... 6 Commercial Consumption Of Electricity ............. 9 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF YUKON ELECTRICAL ENERGY TORECASTS <ocsccccasseseceueewues 11 OVEVIEW «0:0. cc cecvsccevevcesaceccccescescceeesesees 11 Baser Cases SCONAPIO: oo is..swisieuei as stemseieaGed sessemacs 14 Low Case Scenario ... i Gisieve se 16 High Case Scenario ... ccc ee cece e cece e cece er eeeeee 17 ANALYSIS OF YUKON ELECTRICAL ENERGY FORECASTS ..ccccecccccccecceccvccceceecesees 19 Base Gasee Forecast 6... ..cc ccc ceccecceccwevccccesedo 19 Short-Term - Base Case: DIO? AOOMLO LION OS evoke a's «is e.c! ard 6:0 iaieig sin isn.» Bala elec 08S 19 Medium-Term - Base Case: Pie. S5 C0) OT OR rs «wis cs, 0:5 si aiaieieiele dts sreie'c ws leibicSt 22 Long-Term - Base Case: BST "92 to: ZOOL (NO! occ ssinnas<ctatovs sows rwedwasee 24 GW GaSe: FORECASE: 6.6 c.sie ssc neesisnceeniliee saad dieses 26 Short-Term - Low Case: 1982/'S3 to 19B4/"SS: nc. cccccscescnsscccessivscecs 26 Medium-Term - Low Case: 1984/'85 to 1991/'92 .......... iin'iehet ©: (6's lois! s,suedahevens wid te Long-Term - Low Case: WOOT 2 SO 2001S 02 veces ioe sseeestaes oud teawees 30 High Case Forecast .....cccccsecccccccccccccccsccces 30 Short-Term - High Case: 1982/83. to 1984 /' 85) .02 nes eiescecvnseeccescescves 30 Medium-Term - High Case: BOS4/ NBG: tO: T9GL (92: os ici c-s sa’ ob 0,66 aieisie oe wisisle’s 33 Long-Term - High Case: 1991/92 to 2001/02. 0... esecevscenvveovnvedesseee 36 - continued - HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. aaa Page CHAPTER FIVE YUKON ELECTRICAL ENERGY FORECASTS .............e0es 38 5.1 Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System ..........eeeeeeee - 38— Sc .t Whitehorse (Including Tagish & Carcross)........... 39 5.1.2 Carmacks...... Mia! ehelelaletelel ensreloi alates: ele ee bial ou laievetal sl aelletalet 40 5.1.3 Haines Junction ...... pla teal alate lassi alla aHelelalelaleratatela alace/e 41 5.1.4 ROSS: -RAVEr . 0c cecsccess ef aio! ol ual agrlasclistoves ots leliaselalanlece ated 42 $1.5 Faro and: AAVIV MINS oo. ce cscs esses cisecices cece 43 Se Johnson's Crossing ........... ol sie eels Cehal ole els /eleler's ele ielere 44 5c3 Pere NSU 6.01 -'dllele\s' wleio eia:s!610]s 'e\e/s! 5 h5/0*19\ ole s\sis/s|o1 315i eialeis 45 5.4 Me INN ovals chao! cya alata lal tua etelat alse es ole bl elias! lo letetee 46 5.4.1 Elsa And Keno Hill Mine .............. Seal eledel ol lattetta 47 5.4.2 Wr CU cre clietitcl slsle ecsiare ol aietese etal are fatal oles eabeyaliars) slelere 48 S.4:3 PRPMet aac able ocak aioe) alflaileloreielatelavel slaigie severe rateversraralanate shaleleralerg 49 &.% Tota t: YUKON: s:6 003550 a alalule-al/els lulelera alalale'slslallelelele olaleleleses 50 - continued - HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - iii - APPENDIXES Page APPENDIX ONE Methodology And Population Forecasts ............4.. 51 APPENDIX TWO Conversion Of Hot Water Heating And ectrical Space Heating To Natural Gas ............ 58 APPENDIX THREE Production And Distribution Of SCEPICTCY EN-TUKOM 0... cc ccceccnseerscccsvecccves 61 APPENDIX FOUR Forecastfor Field, B.C. isi ccwssccsccvssewcscossine 62 - continued - Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 1-8 1-C HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -iv- LIST OF TABLES Structure Of The Yukon Economy And Industrial Distribution Of Economic ROCIN Ty? (19727277) 00:00 « saeiase se vies ee Historical Electrical Consumption Yukon - Domestic (kWh Per Connection) ... Historical Electrical Consumption Yukon - Commercial (kWh Per Capita) ..... Electrical Energy Requirements And Peak Demand For Existing Mines And The Most Promising New Mines In The Yukon And Adjacent Areas 1982 To 2002 ............. Yukon, Growth Scenario 1982/'83 to 2001/'02 ....... cee eee Adjustments To Base Year 1981/'82 For Industrial Consumption (kwh): Base Case: Scenario: ca nccccseccnsevcvceees Adjustments To Base Year 1981/'82 For Industrial Consumption (kwh): Cow Case Scenarte “2 iio. oe asco asedicweseee sie Adjustments To Base Year 1981/'82 For Industrial Consumption (kwh): High Case Scenario .......... eee e eee eee APPENDIX TABLES Timing Of Employment Impacts ............ Forecast Population Growth In Yukon From 1981/'82 To 2001/'02 ......... Percentage Population Change For Each Community In Yukon From 1981/'82 To 2001/'02 ..... eee eee eee - continued - Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure HILDESRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -VvV- LIST OF FIGURES Total Electrical Energy: Total Yukon-NCPC Generated LOW, BASE and HIGH CASES ..............08. SaaonG env Domestic Electrical Energy: Total Yukon-NCPC Generated LOW, BASE and HIGH CASES .............. BV raereleleleleke ix Commercial Electrical Energy: Total Yukon-NCPC Generated LOW, BASE and HIGH CASES ........... cece eee cece eeeee x Industrial Electrical Energy: Total Yukon-NCPC Generated LOW, BASE and. HIGHS CASES 2). </<\<.5\-1</s1</s,s v10,5)0,si00/010/9/4,5/0,0/5 xi Total Electrical Energy: Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System BOWSSBASE and HIGH CASES <7 orem nme srecn ences eens xii Total Electrical Energy: Mayo System LOW, BASE and HIGH CASES ..............e0e0- eee xiii HILDEBRANODT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -vi- NOTE TO THE READER Consumption and generation data in this report refer only to the electrical energy generated by NCPC in Yukon. A list of communities that are served electrically by Yukon Electrical Company (YECO) is included in APPENDIX THREE and are not the subject of this report. HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 80 98 2000 2002 FISCAL YEAR ENDING MARCH TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY : TOTAL YUKON - NCPC GENERATED LOW , BASE AND HIGH CASES FIGURE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Total Yukon ~- Electrical Demand Forecasts Low BASE __HIGH GuH bt) GWH ak GH Base Year 1981/'82 377 377 377 Short Term: 1982/'83 to 1984/'85 409 8.5 409 8.5 478 (3 Years) Medium Term: 1984/'85 to 1991/'92 391 (10 Years) 4.4 459 12.2 439 Long Term: 1991/'92 to 2001/'02 392 0.3 760 65.6 762 (20 Years) Total Charge: 4.0 101.6 * Lower than base case due to conversion from electricity to natural gas for hot water and space heating. Figure 1 and the table above provide a syn- opsis of the forecast of electrical energy demand in Yukon over the next 20 years. Base Case Scenario This scenario is based on a short-term de- cline in the economy of the Yukon brought about by a decline in tourism and low metal prices due to the worldwide economic re- cession. Increasing prices for metals in the medium term (1984/'85 to 1991/'92) is expected to spur development in the Mac- Millan Pass area of Yukon. This mining activity results in requests by mining com- panies for hydro electricity to replace diesel-generated electricity and results in a hydro-electric facility to be in oper- ation by 1998/'99. Low Case Scenario This gloomy scenario is precipitated by such events as a slow growth in world economies which results in relatively low metal prices which makes it unecon- omic to pursue mineral production in Yukon due to higher real energy costs. High Case Scenario This is based on an optimistic appraisal of the probability that the Alaska (Foot- hills-Yukon) Gas Pipeline will be built. Furthermore, it assumes a strong economic recovery in the world economies which re- sults in higher metal prices. This spurs mining activity in the MacMillan Pass area at a quicker pace than in the base scen- ario. The gas pipeline cuts back the de- ss mand for electricity due to conversion to =e natural gas which results in the medium term high case electrical consumption to be lower than the base case. Discussion Before an economic recovery can occur in Yukon, a turnaround in the United States and Europe is required. A strong U.S.A. recovery would result in increases in » metal prices, which in turn, would bene- fit Yukon. However, a recovery will prob- ably be moderate and may occur not fn the last half of 1982, but in the first half of 1983. Events and situations in mid-1982 seem to favour the Base case scenario with the Low case scenario having the second highest Probability. The High case scenario is viewed as having the lowest probability. "O17 SB1LVIDS0SSv 8 ONNOA-LONVES3071IH 2002 a 2000 FISCAL YEAR ENDING MARCH DOMESTIC ELECTRICAL ENERGY ; TOTAL YUKON - NCPC GENERATED LOW , BASE AND HIGH CASES FIGURE 2 * Lower than the base case due to conversion from electricity to natural gas for hot water and space heating in Whitehorse. 2002 7 2000 FISCAL YEAR ENDING MARCH COMMERCIAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY : TOTAL YUKON - NCPC GENERATED LOW , BASE AND HIGH CASES FIGURE 3 Tv = 2002 T 2000 FISCAL YEAR ENDING MARCH INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY: TOTAL YUKON - NCPC GENERATED LOW , BASE AND HIGH CASES FIGURE 4 —T— Tr 7 2000 2002 FISCAL YEAR ENDING MARCH TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY : AISHIHIK - WHITEHORSE - FARO SYSTEM LOW , BASE AND HIGH CASES FIGURE 5 +—+ + T 80 82 2000 2002 FISCAL YEAR ENDING MARCH TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY : MAYO SYSTEM LOW , BASE AND HIGH CASES FIGURE 6 HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. CHAPTER ONE Introduction HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. Sy lie Chapter One Introduction The structure of the Yukon economy as shown in Table 1.1 shows that the Mining sector represented approximately one-third of total production during the period 1972-'77. The next most important sector is Government at 32% of total production. The Services sector, mainly tourism, accounts for 27% of total production in Yukon. Because of the Yukon economy's reliance on energy-intensive indus- tries, namely mining and tourism, combined with negligible manufac- turing, the economy is vulnerable to external events and thereby subject to major fluctuations which can be caused by a recession or increasing energy prices, or both. Forecasting the demand for electricity in Yukon under such conditions is thus a process of defining probable future events and economic policy decisions likely to affect economic activity, employment and population and therefore, electrical consumption. As outlined in our 1981 Yukon electrical energy forecast, tourism and mining face sharp challenges during the ‘eighties. Rising metal prices in 1979 resulted in record revenues and profits for mining companies in Canada and resulted in increased exploration activity as well as increased recoverable reserves. Since those heady days, the HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. le Table 1.1 Structure Of The Yukon Economy And Industrial Distribution Of Economic Activit 7. Gai Yukon Production Employed Payroll Mining 34 Le 22 Services 27 ; 36 27 Government 32 35 41 Other Industries u 12 10 TOTAL 100% 100% 100% Source: Table 1, Page 77, "Mineral Policy - A Discussion Paper". Energy, Mines and Resources Canada. HILDESRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. =are mining industry has seen metal prices plunge to levels that were not thought possible and has resulted in lay-offs and closures of many mines. In Yukon alone, 185 employees were laid-off in the first quarter of 1982. First, United Keno Hill Mines Ltd. laid off 90 employees of a 280 work force, followed by Cyprus Anvil's permanent lay-off of 95 employees of a work force of 730. The Yukon Government reported strong economic growth during the first nine nieibies of 1981 but this was followed by a sharp decline during the fourth quarter. With a world-wide recession underway, a down- trending market for North American made automobiles coupled with a severe downturn in the housing market, it is not surprising that such a sharp decline occurred in the Yukon economy in the last quarter of 1981. A continuing recession in 1982, coupled with high interest rates, will continue to dampen the international economies and in turn, the Yukon economy. Before an economic recovery can occur in Yukon, a turnaround in the United States is required. A strong U.S.A. recovery would result in increases in metal prices, which in turn would benefit Yukon. However, the scenarios and forecasts for a recovery tend to indicate that it will be a moderate one and may occur not in the last half of 1982, but in the first half of 1983. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -4- In the short-run, say from 1982 to 1985, it can be expected that electrical consumption will remain flat or rise slightly with increases due to continual expansion at Cyprus Anvil as part of its long-term expansion program. Domestic and commercial consumption can be seen to fall due to contraction of the Yukon economy and the net outflow of population. In the longer-term, say from 1984 or 1985 to the 1990's, most ana- lysts are expecting metal prices to be sufficiently high to cause continued expansion in the mining industry. A recent publication by the Federal Government entitled "Mineral Policy - A Discussion Paper" suggests that the demand for mineral commodities will increase during the ‘eighties at rates below the 1960-'73 period. Lead demand is expected to grow by 2.5% or one-half of the 1960-'73 rate; copper and zinc at 2.5% and 2.8% respectively or a little over one-half of the rate during the earlier period. One aspect of the report which is particularly encouraging for the Yukon economy in light of possible mining ventures in the MacMillan Pass and Howard's Pass area is the following statement, "Government should seek to minimize risk by ensuring multiple use of infrastructure . .." Multiple use of infrastructure implies HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -5- provision of infrastructure within a regional rather than a single mine concept."2/ A review of historical electrical consumption is described next, followed by a conceptual basis for the scenarios, their translation into electrical demand forecasts, then the forecasts themselves. 2/. Page 76, "Mineral Policy - A Discussion Paper". Energy, Mines and Resources Canada. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. CHAPTER TWO Historical Electrical Consumption Patterns aed HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. Chapter Two Historical Electrical Consumption Patterns In order to prepare the forecasts of electrical consumption in the domestic and commercial categories, a review of consumption patterns of the recent past was carried out. The purpose of the review was to determine if there were any major trends towards the conservation of electrical energy and whether these trends had levelled off or were still continuing. Domestic Consumption Of Electricity Examination of Table 2.1 shows that in almost every community, consumption per connection of electricity for domestic purposes has decreased from 1977/'78 to 1980/'81 with the exception of Faro, Dawson City and Mayo. The total percentage changes in consumption per connection over this four-year time span for each community were as follows: Whitehorse (including Tagish and Carcross) - 8.6% Carmacks - 7.3% Hains Junction -18.1% Ross River - 5.0% Faro + 4.9% Johnson's Crossing -62.3% Dawson City +13.6% Keno City - 2.2% Mayo +12.2% HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. eee Table 2.1 Historical Electrical Consumption Yukon - Domestic (kWh per connection) Aishihik - Whitehorse 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 - Faro System: /, Whitehorse 14,822 14,536 13,579 13,548 Carmacks 9,239 8,946 8,879 8,569 Haines Junction 11,106 10,129 9,269 9,092 Ross River 8,670 8,813 9,115 85237 Faro 13,374 13,641 13,208 14,025 Johnsons Crossing 5,750 3,250 3,500 2,167 Dawson City 6,964 7,024 7,346 7,909 Mayo System: Elsa a = ci = Keno City 4,200 4,548 5,000 4,107 Mayo 11,186 12,264 13,541 12,546 1/. Includes Tagish and Carcross. HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -8- Whitehorse (including Tagish and Carcross) which represents approxi- mately two-thirds of the Yukon population showed a decrease of 8.6% which occurred mainly in 1979/'80 with relatively little change in consumption per connection in 1980/'81. Faro, with an increase in population of 20% during this time, in- creased its consumption per connection by 4.9%. Dawson City, with an increase in population 21.0%, increased its consumption by 13.6% and Mayo, with a decrease in population of 2.5% increased its consumption per connection by 12.2%. Because of the size of Whitehorse, the trend towards lower consump- tion per connection in this community strongly outweighs any in- creases in the smaller communities. However, consumption per con- nection in 1980/'81 is almost identical to that of 1979/'80. Asa result, no downward trend in consumption per connection will be incorporated into the forecasts. For a utility, a gradual decline in demand per connection is in many ways easier to plan for than rapid escalation in demand. By not incorporating a decrease in demand per connection in the forecasts results in a better understanding of the upside potential demand. 2.2 HILDEBRANOT.-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -9- Commercial Consumption Of Electricity As can be seen in Table 2.2, commercial consumption per capita has increased in Whitehorse, Haines Junction, Ross River, Faro and Dawson City from 1977/'78 to 1980/'81. Decreases were registered in Carmacks, Faro and Mayo. Again due to its relative size, increasing consumption per capita in Whitehorse outweighs any decreases in the smaller communities. However, commercial consumption per capita in Whitehorse increased by 5.4% in 1978/'79 which coincided with a relatively large increase in population of 4.8%. Since 1978/'79 annual consumption per capita has fluctuated around the 3,600 kWh per capita level. Since no real trends exist in the data indicating any significant shifts in consumption per capita, commercial consumption will be held constant in the forecasts. HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 10- Table 2.2 Historical Electrical Consumption Yukon - Commercial (kWh Per Capita) Aishihik - Whitehorse 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 - Faro System: y/ Whitehorse 3,445 3,639 3,589 3,684 Carmacks 2,760 2,346 2,179 2,300 Haines Junction 3,332 3,534 4,261 3,800 Ross River 2,799 2,797 2,466 2,855 Faro 3,685 3,104 3,428 3,676 Johnsons Crossing NA NA NA NA Dawson City 2,051 2,532 2,569 oor TL Mayo System Elsa NA NA NA NA Keno City 0 0 0 0 Mayo 4,025 3,780 3,905 3,646 1/. Includes Tagish and Carcross.. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. CHAPTER THREE Conceptual Framework Of Yukon Electrical Energy orecasts 351 HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -ll- Chapter Three Conceptual Framework of Yukon Electrical Energy Forecasts Overview The scenarios developed in this report were arrived at by synthe- sizing information from various industry sources (e.g. the operating firm's most recent annual reports and the Yukon Chamber of Mines) and levels of government. Table 3.1 outlines the various mining ventures on the horizon which could occur in Yukon in the foreseeable future and significantly impact on the economy and therefore, on the demand for electricity. Information provided in Table 3.2 shows the mining and other develop- ments which would take place under the various scenarios. In all of the scenarios which will be described below, the impact of the lay-offs of 90 employees at United Keno Hill Mines and the permanent lay-offs of 95 employees at Cyprus Anvil in the first quarter of 1982 have been taken into account. The Base Case scenario is proferred as the most likely set of events to transpire in Yukon over the next 20 years followed by the Low Case. In our judgement, in view of existing surplus of gas in anions Table 3.1 Electric Tare Requirements And Peak Demand For Taine Mines And V Electrical Energy” Company Primary Project Location Reserves Grade Size ate Probability No. Of Annual Peak = Load—Est inated Comments Resources Name (Tonnes) (itne/t11) On-Strean tap Factor Shutdown (Tonnes/ay) (om) (my) (3) PROQUCING PRESENTLY COMING ON-STREAM 1981 Brinco Mining Ltd Asbestos MeDame Casstar (BC) 1D MT 108 fibre 3,600 1953 1003 625 4.07 9.0% 59% 2000 A second deposit 15 not (Cassiar Asbestos Corp.) Lake included in ore reserves Consen Tungsten Hinlog Ialgetees Cantung Tonguten (wut) 3.5 AT 1.558 WO, 900 rae iam = el Se ean in 10079 the Sot lasted lee Corp. t Copper O28 Gy life was beyond 200 tly discovered Canada Tungsten Mining Gold, Tungsten, Dublin 50 km Korth < - 1,500 Cu 1980 100% Z 2 Corp. Ltd e Tin Gulch [oe mi/eay _ = Cyprus Anvil Mining Lead, Zine, Anvil 60 HT 9,070 1969 100% 600 170.07 28.0% 107 201 Other ore bodies in Corp Silver are not included | H.8.M. 8S. (unite Copper, Gold Whitehorse uhitehorse amr Lae cu, 2,360 1967 100s 189 35.57 6.0% 68% tna of other seall ore bodies in ai horse Copper Mines) Copper 0.69 9/7 Av 1983 are not included in reser r — — — — eres aE — — — — £88 Explorations Tungsten, Stormy 130 tm South : - 100 1/0ay 1981 1008 - - - E Small, high grade deposit (Rio Alto Explorations) —_Holybdebem Mountain of Ross Aver 50 Days/¥r Stil} "in the exploration United Keno HITT Silver, Lead Keno HITT Oise 436 « 844 o/T Ag 400 1008 200 38. wT 5.5 207 1990 Formerly produced zinc and ines Ltd. 3.43 cadium, SIBLE NEW MINES/ MILLS. COMING OF STREAM AFTER 1962 High Probability United Keno Hi11 Gold, Stiver, Venus 15 km South 6.84 S/T Av, 9 = Nigh 4s a4 16 60 1986. p ab auenp taney Hines Led Lead, Zine of Carcross 205 9/T Ag, 1991 plored 43 of the present. Mine 1.89% 8, Scheduled to open in 198i but mas 137 tn not Drought. Into production dve to low eetal prices Tungsten, Mactung macht Van S7 mT 0.9% WO, 900 1986- High 300 $8.7 10.0 67 2006- ‘Total ore body exceeds 90 MT.* Copper Pass _ 1987 2087 Actual prod. estimated 100% Wuason Bay Mining & Stiver, Lead, Tow hack Han OMT 96 g/T My, 4,500 F = 5 Snelting Con tte me Pess 8.42 Zn, 1987 Nigh 420 5.0 16.7 65% — 2000 Aaditional 10 HT reserves at 8.65 Pb lower grade Placer Development Ltd. Linc, Lead, Summitt Howards Pass 300 AT 6-123 Pb, 4,500 1990 High 400 82.0% 11.0° 8s y 2090 World's largest lead-zinc deposit U.S. Steel Corp Stivee late tn coro tines ss eke es * Prism Resources ta Sliver, Lead Kathleen 70 bm NE 850 KT 206 g/T Aas 30 1904 igh 20S 8.9 BOSC may be une ccover U8 taplorations Uta. Hine tates wae ee the Done Petroleum Lt 2. 500 Chieftain Oevel. Ltd., : Asazera in —— os Placer evelopment Ltd Molybdenum Adanac 30 km LE. of 167 »T ses High 320 97.0 13.0 as This site could be « possible wer Adanac Mining & Explore Atlin, 8.6 os teton energy tion Led Table 3.1 - Continued Electric Energy Requirements And Peak Demand For Existing Mines And Most Promising Proposed New Mines In The Yukon And Ad jacent Areas 1982 To 2001 Electrical Ene y Primary Project at Reserves bate Probability No. Of A Peak timated | 8 7 td Bar Tea Ross Riv K 198 Medium 10 a Inc., Silve er, Stlve Mint 80 km Nw Mediu 37.0 6 wa R Silver, Lead a km North ik r 2 low 10 | | | | | | | » Barite, Zin He um t 4.8 150, Low 9 6.7 1 rt fates Lté. fro Table 3.2 Yukon Growth Scenarios 1982/'83 To 2001/'02 Whitehorse Copper United Keno Hill Cyprus Anvil Venus (Carcross) MACMILLAN PASS Mactung Deposit (Tungsten, Copper) Tom Deposit (Silver, Lead, Zinc) Jason Deposit (Zinc, Lead, Silver) HOWARD'S PASS Summit Lake Deposit (Zinc, Lead, Silver) OTHER DEVELOPMENTS Kathleen Lakes (Silver, Lead, Zinc) Hydro-electric facility for Mac- Millan Pass develop- ment Alaska (Foothills- Yukon) Gas Pipeline SYSTEM AFFECTED AISHTHIK- WHITEHORSE MAYO * Closes at Closes at Continues LOW end of 1982/'83 end of 1987/'88 expansion BASE Closes at end of 1983 Closes at end of 1988/'89 Continues expansion Re-opens in 1988/'89 Construction begins in 1985/'86. Production in 1987/'88. Construction begins in 1986/'87. Production in 1988/'89. Construction begins in 1988/'89. Production in 1990/'91. Construction begins in 1992/'93. Production in 1994/'95. Construction begins in 1985/'86. Production in 1987/'88 and closes in 1996/'97. Construction begins in 1990/'91 and producing electricity in 1998/'99. HIGH Closes at end of 1984/'85 Closes at end of 1990/'91 Continues expansion Re-opens in 1987/'88 Construction begins in 1983/'84. Production in 1985/'86. Construction begins in 1984/'85. Production in 1986/'87. Construction begins in 1986/'87. Production in 1988/'89. Construction begins in 1989/'90. Production in 1991/'92. Construction begins in 1983/'84. Production in 1985/'86 and closes after 2001/'02. Construction begins in 1989/'90 and producing electricity in 1996/'97. Pre-construction in 1983/'84 with end of construction in 1987/'88. Note: It is assumed that developments in the MacMillan Pass area will be such that the companies involved would be providing their own diesel-generated electricity until a new hydro-electric facility is completed. - €I- "O11 SS1VISOSSvY 8 ONNOA-LONVESsO1IH w HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. -14- Alberta and B.C., the High Case scenario is the least likely development to occur in Yukon. Base Case Scenario Under the base case, the demand for electricity increases moderately in 1982/'83 followed by a drop in 1983/'84 followed by moderately increasing total consumption until 1996/'97. The electrical demand increase in 1982/'83 is mainly due to Cyprus Anvil's expansion overshadowing dropping sales at the domestic and commercial levels due to lay-offs at United Keno Hill Mines and Cyprus Anvil as well as a general decline in the Yukon economy. The assumptions underlying the base case are: - an average annual increase in population of 1.02% over the next 20 years with a population decrease to occur until 1984/'85 when mining developments come on-stream and cause increases in the population (see APPENDIX ONE for further detail); - no significant change in per capita consumption of electricity for domestic or commercial uses, i.e. rapidly rising energy costs will discourage increased consumption, but the absence of substitutes for electricity will result in little decline in per capita consumption at the household or commercial levels; - a slight decline in tourism due to the recession and higher gasoline prices. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. 6155 In the past the Economic Research and Planning Unit of the Government of Yukon would publish population projections based on their "Yukon Economic Impact Simulation Model" in the first quarter of the year. However, delays in putting together a 1982 projection resulted in the consultants preparing their own population forecast. Details of the methodology used are available in APPENDIX ONE. The Base Case scenario is one based on a short-term decline in the economy of the Yukon brought about by a decline in tourism, low metal prices due to the world-wide economic recession. Under this scenario, Whitehorse Copper closes at the end of 1983 due to depletion of reserves. The long-term scenario for metal prices, in particular for tungsten, silver, lead, zinc and copper, is expected to spur develop- ment in the MacMillan Pass area of the Yukon such that construction occurs at the Tom deposit in 1986/'87, the Jason deposit in 1988/'89 and the Summitt Lake deposit in 1992/'93. The reason for this mining activity occurring more or less at the same time is based on the premise that if economic conditions are good for one mine in the area they are good for all mines. Furthermore, as previously noted, the Federal Government has indicated that mining infrastructures should be provided for the development of a number of mines and not just for one mine. ad HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. SptGH= Production from these mines will require electrical energy. It is expected that the mining companies will generate their own diesel- generated power initially, to be followed by a hydro-electric facility to be in operation by 1998/'99. Also in the base scenarios, it is expected that the Venus Mine at Carcross would reopen in 1988/'89 and that depleted reserves would result in the closure of United Keno Hill Mines Ltd. in the same year. It is expected that Cyprus Anvil would continue its expansion and that their mill crusher modification would take place in 1984, followed by the Grum deposit start-up in the first quarter of 1985. Low Case Scenario The low case scenario results in a slow decline in the demand for electricity due to the lack of growth in the Yukon economy. These events would be due to a combination of high energy costs of mineral production in Yukon relative to low metal prices due to world-wide excess capacity in the metals sector. Under this scenario Whitehorse Copper closes at the end of 1982/'83 followed by United Keno Hill in 1987/'88. Because Cyprus Anvil's capital stock of plant and equipment were purchased at low prices, it 3.4 HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. sage is assumed that it would be economic for them to continue their expansion and production until they have depleted their reserves. Tourism in this scenario would decline as well but due to the uneconomic nature of mining in Yukon would replace or compete with mining as the primary industry. Due to the above factors, the population of Yukon would be expected to decline at an average rate of 0.42% per annum over the 20-year forecast period. High Case Scenario The high case scenario is based on an optimistic appraisal of the probability that the Alaska (Foothills-Yukon) Gas Pipeline will be built. Also the mining ventures that were outlined to occur in the base case would be speeded up by a factor of two years with construction beginning as early as 1983/'84 at the Mactung deposit. The hydro-electric facility to furnish power to the MacMillan Pass mines would be completed and generating electricity by 1996/'97. Preconstruction of the Alaska (Foothills-Yukon) Gas Pipeline would begin in 1983/'84 and construction would end in 1987/'88. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTO. - 18 - Tourism in this scenario would not show any decline, but due to high energy costs, would not show any real growth. Population under this scenario would grow at an average annual rate of 1.41% over the 20-year forecast period. However, the short-term outlook results in a decline in population in 1982/'83. The building of the Alaska (Foothills-Yukon) Gas Pipeline would also spur the conversion from electricity presently being used for space and hot water heating to natural gas. It would be expected that the conversion over a four-year period would result in reduction in electrical demand for domestic purposes as follows: 1988/'89 50% reduction in Year I -24,000 MWH 1989/'90 20% reduction in Year II - 9,760 MWH 1990/'91 5% reduction in Year III - 2,400 MWH 1991/'92 5% reduction in Year IV - 2,400 MWH TOTAL REDUCTION -39,040 MWH As a result of this substitution process the demand for electricity for domestic purposes is actually less in the high case than in the low or base case for 1991/'92, 1996/'97 and 2001/'02. (Further information on the above estimates is available in APPENDIX TWO.) HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. CHAPTER FOUR Analysis Of Yukon Electrical Energy Forecasts 4.1 4.1.1 HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 19 - Chapter Four Analysis of Yukon Electrical Energy Forecasts Base Case Forecast Short-Term - Base Case: 1982/'83 to 1984/'85 Industrial (Short-Term - Base Case): Examination of Table 4.1 shows the expected impact of mining activity on industrial electrical demand in the 20-year forecast period. In the short-term the major impacts are due to the closure of White- horse Copper at the end of 1983 which reduces electrical consumption for the fiscal year 1983/'84 by 9,104 MWH due to nine months opera- tion in that fiscal year, followed by the remainder of 27,043 MWH in fiscal year 1984/'85. Countering these decreases are improvements at Cyprus Anvil with a new rotary drill -in 1982/'83, shop modifications in 1983/'84 followed by a new shovel and mill crusher in 1984 and the Grum deposit start-up in 1985. The overall impact on industrial electrical demand is an increase of 40,755 MWH or 20.2% in the short-term. The major inane impacts are on the Aishihik-Whitehorse- Faro System. A decrease of 1,836 MWH on the Mayo System would be anticipated due to a decrease in consumption at United Keno Hill. Table 4.1 Adjustments To Base Year 1981/'82 For Industrial Consumption (kwh): Year 1981/'82 1982/'83 1983/'84 1984/'85 1991/'92 2001/'02 + * AISHIHIK-WHITEHORSE- MAYO SYSTEM TOTAL YUKON FARO SYSTEM (NCPC Only) Adjustment Result Adjustment Result Adjus tment Result ; Item Comment = a a 7 -- 177,409 ss 24,751 -- 202,160 * Base year 2,000 - 2,352 * Whitehorse Copper Consumption decrease as fore- casted by Whitehorse Copper (36,057 - 38,409 = -2352) 21,000 196 ,057 + 21,000 * Cyprus Anvil New rotary drill. - 1,836 22,915 - 1,836 218,972 * United Keno Hill Based on forecast by the mine. 12,000 + 12,000 * Cyprus Anvil Shop modifications. 9,014 199,043 - 9,014 221,958 * Whitehorse Copper Closes at end of 1983 for 9 months operation in fiscal 1983/'84. (36,057x9/12=27,043) 48,000 + 48,000 * Cyprus Anvil New shovel and mill crusher mod-- ifications in 4th quarter of 1984 and Grum start-up in 1985. 27,043 220,000 - 27,043 242,915 * Whitehorse Copper Closes at end of 1983 8,400 228,400 + 8,400 * Venus (Carcross) Venus opens in 1988/'89 and closes 1998/'99. - 22,915 - 22,915 * United Keno Hill Closes at end of 1988/'89. + 27,500 27,500 + 27,500 255,900 * Kathleen Lakes (silver mine) Opens at end of 1987/'88 closes at end of 1996/'97. 330,700 + 330,700 * Hydro-electric facility Hydro-electric facility opens : in 1998/'99 to supply Mactung (58,700) ,Tom’ (95,000), Jason (95,000) and Howard's Pass (82,000). 8,400 550,700 - 8,400 * Venus (Carcross) Venus mine closes at end of : 1998/'99. - 27,500 0 - 27,500 550,700 * Kathleen, Lakes Closes at end of 1996/'97. Base Case Scenario “O17 S3LVID0S88v 8 ONNOA-LONVESSO1IH HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. = 21 = Domestic (Short-Term - Base Case): The expansion at Cyprus Anvil results from new equipment and would not impact on employment. Due to depressed metal markets in the first quarter of 1982, Cyprus Anvil has laid off 95 employees and United Keno Hill 90. In the short-term these lay-offs are expected to cut domestic and commercial consump- tion. Domestic consumption in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System is expected to drop from 85,293 MWH in 1981/'82 to 80,757 MWH in 1984/'85 or 5.3%. In the Mayo System, domestic consumption is expected to drop from 4,896 MWH in the same time period to 4,327 MWH or 11.6%. Commercial (Short-Term - Base Case): Consumption in the Aishihik- Whitehorse-Faro System is expected to drop from 72,798 MWH in 1981/'82 to 68,536 MWH in 1984/'85 or 5.9%. In the Mayo System it is expected to drop from 1,836 MWH to 1,752 MWH or 4.6%. Total (Short-Term - Base Case): The total electrical load demanded of NCPC is expected to increase to 372,484 MWH in 1984/'85 from 339,319 in 1981/'82 or an increase of 33,165 MWH or 9.8%. As stated above, this is due to industrial demand increasing and domestic and commercial demand decreasing. 4.1.2 HILDEBRANDOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 22 - Medium-Term - Base Case: 1984/'85 to 1991/'92 Industrial (Medium-Term - Base Case): During this period, only minor increases are expected in the industrial load. The only mining activity that impacts on the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System is the forecast re-opening of the Venus (gold) mine at Carcross in 1988/'89. The Mayo System loses from the closure of United Keno Hill at the end of 1988/'89 but gains from the opening of Kathleen Lakes (silver) mine at the end of 1988/'89. Industrial load in the Aishihik-White- horse-Faro System increases by 8,400 MWH followed by a net increase of 4,585 MWH on the Mayo System for a total industrial load increase in the medium-term of 12,985 MWH or 5.3%. The opening of mines in the MacMillan Pass area will not affect electrical consumption in the medium-term as it is anticipated that the mining companies would be providing their own diesel-generated power until a hydro-electric facility is constructed. Domestic & Commercial (Medium-Term - Base Case): Construction in the mining sector in the MacMillan Pass area starting in 1985/'86 is expected to spur domestic and commercial consumption in the Aishihik- Whitehorse-Faro System. This is premised on a fly-in fly-out opera- tion based in Whitehorse. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. eat Due to a rapid increase in Whitehorse's population, domestic consump- tion would be expected to increase from 80,752 MWH in 1984/'85 to 100,902 MWH in 1991/'92 for an increase of 20,150 MWH or 25.0%. This EP AD an average annual growth rate of 3.8% in domestic elec- trical demand during this six-year period. The Mayo System would be expected to increase its domestic consumption to 4,606 MWH in 1986/'87 from 4,327 in 1984/'85 for an increase of 279 MWH or 6.5%. A sharp decrease is foreseen for 1991/'92 due to the closure of United Keno Hill Mines energy sales would decline to 2,926 MWH from 4,606 MWH in 1986/'87 for a drop of 1,680 MWH or 36.5%. The commercial load during this medium-term is expected to grow to 85,630 MWH from 73,266 MWH or 24.9% in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System based on the expected growth in population. Commercial load in the Mayo System is expected to grow by 17.8% in this period (or 2.8% per year) due to developments at Kathleen Lakes. Total (Medium-Term - Base Case): From 1984/'85 to 1991/'92, total electrical demand would be expected to increase from 408,597 MWH to 459,071 MWH or 12.35% for an average annual increase of 2.0%. Domestic electrical demand is expected to increase by 21.9%, commer- cial demand by 24.5% and industrial demand by 5.4%. 4.1.3 HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 24 - Long-Term - Base Case: 1991/'92 to 2001/'02 Industrial (Long-Term - Base Case): In the long-term, the production of mines in the MacMillan Pass are assumed to require a changeover from diesel-generated to hydro-generated electricity. Construction activity starting in 1990/'91 spurs increases in domestic and commer- cial electrical consumption. The hydro-electric facility is expected to come on-stream to supply power for an estimated demand of 330,700 MWH by the four new producing mines. Closure of the Venus mine at the end of 1998/'99 and Kathleen Lakes at the end of 1996/'97 reduces industrial electrical demand by 35,900 MWH for a net increase in demand of 294,800 MWH or 115.2% increase over 1991/'92 and 1996/'97. The increase in industrial demand takes place on the Aishihik-White- horse-Faro System whereas the decrease due to the closure of Kathleen Lakes affects the Mayo System. Domestic & Commercial (Long-Term - Base Case): The increased econo- mic activity due to construction of the hydro facility and the new mines in production has a modest 3.0% effect on domestic consumption from 100,902 MWH in 1991/'92 to 103,898 MWH in 2001/'02 on the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System. The major employment impacts occurred during the medium-term. HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. =E25i= The Mayo System shows a slight increase in domestic consumption of 3.0% from 1991/'92 to 2001/'02. Closure of the mine at Kathleen Lakes at the end of 1996/'97 has limited impact on the Mayo System because it is expected to be a fly-in fly-out operation out of Whitehorse. Commercial electrical consumption increases by 3.0% in the Aishihik- Whitehorse-Faro System and Faro System during this time period for an average annual increase of 0.33%. Total (Long-Term - Base Case): The impact of the transition of the MacMillan Pass area mines from diesel-generated to NCPC generated hydro-electricity results in an increase in total electrical demand of 300,720 MWH or 65.5% from 459,071 MWH in 1991/'92 to 759,791 MWH in 2001/'02. Closures of Venus and Kathleen Lakes reduces demand somewhat but are overshadowed by increases due to the MacMillan Pass mines. 4.2 4.2.1 HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. =||96 = Low Case Forecast Short-Term - Low Case: 1982/'83 to 1984/'85 Industrial (Short-Term - Base Case): As previously indicated, the low case forecast is basically a gloomy scenario for the Yukon economy. According to news reports, a study by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources entitled “World Mineral Markets Stage II, an Economic and Simulation Approach to the World Markets for Copper, Aluminum, Nickel and Zinc", predicts only marginal increases in the consumption and price of copper. Expectations are that world consumption will rise from 9.5 million metric tons a year to about 10 million metric tons which would at best result in a very modest price increases in real terms. For zinc, the outlook is for excess capacity in the mid-1980's and that by 1981, prices will have moved to the equivalent of 35 to 45 cents (U.S.) a pound in 1981 dollars, compared to the current level of 36.7 cents (U.S.). Under such a scenario no new mines can be expected to come on-stream during the 20-year forecast period and existing mines would close after depleting their reserves. Due to the expectation of a brighter longer-term outlook, Cyprus Anvil would be expected to continue its expansion and increases electrical consumption because of a new HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. (-27- drill, shop modifications and new shovel and mill crusher modifica- tions in 1984. Closure of Whitehorse Copper at the end of fiscal 1982/'83 reduces industrial electrical consumption by 36,057 MWH. The result is a net increase (as can be seen in Table 4.2) in indus- trial consumption to 220,000 MWH in 1984/'85 from 177,409 MWH in 1981/'82 or a 42,591 MWH increase in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System. In the Mayo System, a forecast decrease of 1,836 MWH by United Keno Hill would reduce industrial demand further. Domestic & Commercial (Short-Term - Low Case): Due to lay-offs at Cyprus Anvil and the closure of Whitehorse Copper at the end of 1982/'83, domestic consumption would fall to 80,752 MWH in 1984/'85 from 85,923 MWH in 1981/'82 for a 6.0% decrease. The Mayo System would register an 11.6% decrease in domestic consumption in the same time frame due to lay-offs at United Keno Hill in the first quarter of 1982. Commercial consumption in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System could be expected to decline by 4,269 MWH (or 5.9%) from 72,798 MWH in 1981/'82 to 68,529 MWH in 1984/'85. For the Mayo System, the decline Table 4.2 Adjustments To Base Year 1981/'82 For Industrial Consumption (kWh): Low Case Scenario AISHIKIK-WHITEHORSE - MAYO SYSTEM TOTAL YUKON FARO SYSTEM (NCPC Only) Year Adjustment Result Adjustment Result Adjustment Result Item Comment — "7 eT) UPS 1 v c ~~ T 1981/'82 -- 177,409 == 24,751 —= 202,160 * Base Year 1982/'83 - 2,352 175,057 - 2,352 * Whitehorse Copper * Consumption decrease as fore- casted by Whitehorse Copper (36,057 - 38,409 = -2352) + 21,000 196,057 + 21,000 * Cyprus Anvil * New rotary drill. - 1,836 22,915 - 1,836 218,972 * United Keno Hill * Based on forecast by the mine. 1983/'84 + 12,000 + 12,000 * Cyprus Anvil / * Shop modifications. - 36,057 172,000 - 36,057 194,915 * Whitehorse Copper * Closure at end of 1982/'83. 1984/'85 + 48,000 220,000 + 48,000 242,915 * Cyprus Anvil * New shovel and mill crusher modification in 4th quarter 1984 and Grum start-up in 1985. 1991/'92 - 22,915 0 - 22,915 220,000 * United Keno Hill * Closure at end of 1987/'88. - e2 - "O17 S3LVID0SSV 3 ONNOA-LONVEesZO1NNH 4.2.2 HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 29 - is 84 MWH from 1,836 MWH in 1981/'82 to 1,752 MWH in 1984/'85 or 4.6%. Total (Short-Term - Low Case): In the short-term, total electrical demand in the Yukon is expected to increase from 377,481 MWH in 1981/'82 to 408,583 MWH in 1984/'85, a 31,102 MWH or 8.24% for an average annual increase of 2.7%. As previously stated, this is due to Cyprus Anvil's long-term expansion based on a forecast of a better metals market in the mid-1980's. The similarity between the low and base case scenarios is not coincidental. In the short-term, the Yukon economy is in the grips of a recession, and if mining activity does take place, it should occur in the mid to late 1980's. Medium-Term - Low Case: 1984/'85 to 1991/'92 During this time period there is virtually no new economic activity in Yukon. As a result, the increases in electrical consumption are mainly due to a natural increase in population. Closure at the end of 1987/'88 of United Keno Hill causes a reduction in industrial electrical demand of 22,915 MWH. This affects the Mayo System by reducing the population at Elsa and thereby reducing domestic demand. 4.2.3 4.3 4.3.1 HILDEBRANDOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 30 - Total electrical demand in 1991/'92 due to economic factors is approximately at the same level as in 1981/'82 at 390,777 MWH versus 388,312 MWH. Long-Term - Low Case: 1991/'92 to 2001/'02 In the long-term, total electrical demand in the Yukon increases from 390,777 MWH in 1991/'92 to 391,877 MWH in 2001/'02 or 0.3%. This is basically just an increase due to the natural growth in population. The mining sector is inactive due to the uneconomic nature of mining in Northern Canada as a result of high real energy costs. High Case Forecast Short-Term - High Case: 1982/'83 to 1984/'85 The high case forecast is based on a more optimistic scenario in terms of mines closing at a ‘ater date combined with new mines coming on-stream at an earlier date than in the base scenario. A major assumption of the high case scenario is the construction of the Alaska (Foothills-Yukon) Gas Pipeline to start in 1983/'84 with an end to the construction in 1987/'88. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. = 31 = Industrial (Short-Term - High Case): Examination of Table 4.3 shows the expected electrical demand by the mining industry in the high scenario case over the 20-year forecast period. In the short-term, industrial electrical demand would grow by 78,648 MWH in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System and decrease by 1,836 MWH in the Mayo System for a net increase of 76,812 MWH or 38.0%. The increase in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System is based on the expansion at Cyprus Anvil and a decrease in consumption at Whitehorse Copper. The decrease in the Mayo System is due to a forecast decrease by United Keno Hill Mines. Domestic & Commercial (Short-Term - High Case): Domestic consumption in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System drops in 1982/'83 due to lay-offs at Cyprus Anvil but construction activity in 1983/'84 at the Mactung deposit coupled with preconstruction of the Alaska (Foothills-Yukon) Gas Pipeline results in population growth which increases domestic consumption in 1984/'85 to 98,769 MWH from 85,923 MWH in 1981/'82 or a 15.0% increase. Personnel laid-off at United Keno Hill Mines in the first quarter of 1982 results in a decrease in domestic consumption in the Mayo System of 569 MWH or 11.6% from 1981/'82 to 1983/'84. Table 4.3 Adjustments To Base Year 1981/'82 For Industrial Consumption (kWh): High Case Scenario AISHTHIK-WHITEHORSE- MAYO SYSTEM TOTAL YUKON FARO SYSTEM (NCPC Only) Year _ Adjustment Result Adjustment Result Adjustment Result Item Comment 1981/'82 == 177,409 -- 24,751 == 202,160 * Base Year 1982/'83 - 2,352 - 2,352 * Whitehorse Copper * Consumption decrease as fore- casted by Whitehorse Copper (36,057 - 38,409 = 2352) + 21,000 196 ,057 + 21,000 * Cyprus Anvil * New-rotary drill. - 1,836 22,915 - 1,836 218,972 * United Keno Hill * Based on forecast by the mine. 1983/'84 + 12,000 208 ,057 + 12,000 230,972 * Cyprus Anvil * Shop modifications. 1984/'85 + 48,000 256 ,057 + 48,000 278,972 * Cyprus Anvil * New shovel and mill crusher modifications in 4th quarter 1984 and Grum start-up in 1985. 1985/'86 - 36,057 220,000 - 36,057 * Whitehorse Copper * Closure at end of 1984/'85. + 27,500 50,415 + 27,500 270,415 * Kathleen Lakes (silver mine) * Opens in 1985/'86 and closes in 2001/'02 (includes townsite requirements). 1991/'92 + 8,400 228,400 + 8,400 * Venus (Carcross) * Venus mine opens in 1987/'88 closes at end of 1997/'98. - 22,915 27,500 - 22,915 255,900 * United Keno Hill * Mine closes at end of 1990/'91. 1996/'97 + 330,700 559,100 + 330,700 586 ,600 * Hydro-electric facility * Hydro-electric facility opens in 1996/'97 to supply Mactung ae » Tom (95,000), Jason 95,000) and Howard's Pass (82,000). 8,400 550,700 - 8,400 578,200 * Venus (Carcross) * Venus mine closes at end of 1997/'98. 2001/'02 ' - ce - ‘O11 SSLVID0OSSY 3 ONNOA-LONVEesOH asic HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. aEsaie Concomitantly commercial consumption in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System decreases in 1982/'83 due to Cyprus Anvil personnel lay-offs but picks up due to activity in the mining sector outlined above. Commercial consumption increases to 83,909 MWH in 1984/'85 from 72,798 in 1981/'82; an increase of 11,111 MWH or 15.3%. In the Mayo System, commercial consumption decreases by 4.6% to 1,752 MWH as a result of the lay-offs at United Keno Hill and no activity in the area in terms of new mining ventures. Total (Short-Term - High Case): Due to increased demand at the industrial, domestic and commercial level, total consumption in 1984/'85 is forecast to be 478,037 MWH. This is an increase of 100,556 MWH over 1981/'82 or 26.6% for an average annual increase of 8.2%. Medium-Term - High Case: 1984/'85 to 1991/'92 Industrial (Medium-Term - High Case): Industrial electrical demand from 1984/'85 to 1991/'92 is expected to decrease to 220,000 MWH in 1985/'86 due to the closure of Whitehorse Copper at the end of 1984/'85 which reduces industrial consumption by 36,057 MWH as can be seen in Table 4.3. Demand picks up by 8,400 MWH, however, in 1987/'88 with the re-opening of the Venus mine at Carcross. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. = 94 te Therefore industrial demand in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System slips by 36,057 MWH or 14.1% in 1984/'85 to pick up by 8,400 MWH or 3.8% in 1987/'88. The Mayo System shows increased industrial electrical demand due to the opening of the mine at Kathleen Lakes in 1985/'86 for an in- creased demand of 27,500 MWH or 103.7% over the base year of 1981/'82. The increase in industrial demand is temporary due to the expected closure of United Keno Hill which cuts demand by 22,915 MWH or 42.9% at the end of 1990/'91. Domestic & Commercial (Medium-Term - High Case): Domestic electrical demand is given impetus in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System until 1985/'86 when it reaches a maximum of 103,638 MWH. This demand is mainly due to construction activity in the mining sector, the start of construction on the hydro-electric facility in 1983/'84, as well as preconstruction of the Alaska (Foothills-Yukon) Gas Pipeline in the same year. As outlined previously in Section 3.4, because of the pipeline, a substitution of natural gas for electricity takes place from 1988/'89 to 1991/'92 as cheaper natural gas makes it economic to convert domestic hot water and space heating away from electricity to natural gas (see APPENDIX TWO for further information). This only occurs in the City of Whitehorse because of the large population HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 35 - base. As a result, domestic demand for electricity drops in 1991/'92 to 71,868 MWH from a high of 103,638 MWH in 1985/'86 in the Aishihik- Whitehorse-Faro System. Commercial consumption in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System conti- nues to increase from 1984/'85 to 1991/'92 by 12.2% from 83,909 MWH to 94,172 MWH. Some conversion of hot water heating loads from electricity to natural gas would probably occur in this time period but the extent of the conversion is unknown. It is felt to be of less significance, however, than the impact on the domestic load. The Mayo System in this time period sees slow growth in the combined commercial and domestic consumption because economic growth is concentrated on the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System. The closure of United Keno Hill at the end of 1990/'91 results ina cutback of domestic consumption due to a population exodus from Elsa and the fact that Kathleen Lakes development impacts on Whitehorse and not Mayo. Total (Medium-Term - High Case): Total electrical demand in the medium-term as a result of the conversion of hot water and space 4.3.3 HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 36 - heating to natural gas declines to 438,579 MWH in 1991/'92 from 478,037 MWH in 1984/'85 for a decrease of 39,458 MWH or 8.3%. Long-Term - High Case: 1991/'92 to 2001/'02 Industrial (Long-Term - High Case): In the long-term the opening of the hydro-electric facility in 1996/'97 to serve the MacMillan Pass _ area results in an increase of 330,700 MWH in the demand for electricity in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System as the mines change over from diesel-generated power to hydro-generated power. In the Mayo System, there is no change in industrial electric demand over the 1991/'92 level of demand. Domestic & Commercial (Long-Term - High Case): Domestic consumption in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System drops in 1996/'97 due to the end of construction of the hydro-electric facility which results in an outflow of population. Consumption rises by 2001/'02 to a level of 72,069 MWH which is slightly higher than the 1991/'92 level of 71,868 MWH or 0.3%. In the Mayo System consumption falls due to the closure of United Keno Hill Mine at the end of 1990/'91. Commercial consumption in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System falls in 1996/'97 to 87,617 MWH to for the reasons outlined above and picks HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. SOS 7 up to the 94,329 MWH level in 2001/'02 which is almost the same as the 1991/'92 level of 94,172 MWH. In the Mayo System, commercial demand increases slightly to 2,125 MWH in 2001/'02 over the 1991/'92 level of 1,949 MWH. Total (Long-Term - High Case): Total consumption of electricity increases significantly in the long-term due to the construction of a hydro-electric. facility for the MacMillan Pass mining ventures. Total consumption in 1996/'97 rises by 316,607 MWH or 72.2% from 438,579 MWH in 1991/'92 to 755,186 MWH in 1996/'97. A slight increase is registered from 1996/'97 from 755,186 MWH to 761,617 MWH in 2001/'02 or 0.9%. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. CHAPTER FIVE Yukon Electrical Energy Forecasts * LOW, BASE & HIGH CASES ee eee eee 5.1 ALSHIHIK- Domestic Commercial Industrial Street Lighting TOTAL ENERGY: Generation Peak Load Load Factor 1978/'79 (MWH) 20,611 64,672 135,010 2,281 282,574 310,439 55,720 -636 1979/'80 (MH) 79,915 67,902 132, 382 2,496 282,695 304,032 55,700 +623 1980/'81 (Mutt) 82,496 70,601 136,663 2,701 292,461 312,849 59,900 +596 Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements 1981/82 1982/'83 (Mutt) (Mil) 85,923 82,648 83,329 84,433 72,798 70,165 70,747 71,689 177,409 169,057 169,057 169,057 3,189 3,189 339,319 325,059 326, 322 328, 368 366,125 350,739 352, 102 354,309 66,140 66 685 766,944 eo -632 600 1983/84 (Mutt ) 80,752 80,759 93,102 68,529 68,536 79,071 172,000 “199,043 208 ,057 3,189 324,470 351,527 383,419 350,103 379,298 413,709 66 ,565 72,115 78,658 600 1984/'85 (MWH) 80,752 80,759 98,769 68,529 68,536 83,909 220,000 220,000 256,057 3,189 372,470 372,484 441,924 401,895 401,910 476,836 76,412 76,415 90 ,660 -600 FORECAST 1985/'86 1986/'87 (MWH) (MWH) 81,491 82,031 86,331 90,390 103,638 101,412 69,134 69,574 73,266 76,710 88,039 86,119 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 3,189 3,189 373,814 374,794 382,786 390,289 414,866 410,720 403,345 404,403 413,026 421,122 447,640 443,167 76,687 76 ,889 78 ,528 80,067 85,109 84,259 -600 -600 1991/'92 (Matt) 83,426 100,902 71,868 70,712 85,630 94,172 220,000 228 ,400 228 ,400 3,189 327,327 418,121 397,629 407 , 136 451,153 429,042 77,408 85,777 81,573 600 1996/'97 (Mu) 83,574 102,021 64,196 70,833 86,580 87,617 220,000 228,400 559,100 3,189 377,596 420,190 714,102 407,426 453,385 770,516 77,463 86,201 146,497 - 600 2001/'02 (MWH) 83,823 103,898 — 72,069 71,037 88174 94,329 220,000 550,700 550,700 3,189 378,049 745,961 << 720,287 407,915 804 ,892 777,190 77,556 153,033 147,766 - 600 "O27 S31LVIDOSSY 8 ONNOCA-LONVES3s01IH COMMUNITY: WHITEHORSE (INCLUDING TAGISH AND CARCROSS) COMMUNITY, SUNEORMATION | PROPLLE eee ene ACTUAL een re rememncnmesaene— Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual 15,410 15,718 16,494 16,625 17,297 (actual) Annual Change 308 - 776 131 672 Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. - - - - Non-Gov't. - - - - Combined 14,822 14,536 13,579 13,548 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. Non-Gov't. - - - - Combined 3,445 3,630 3,589 3,684 c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrfal) 7,993 8,336 8,027 8,176 Sources: YECO calendar year data for connections and NCPC sales data. Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. ‘O11 SS1LVIDOSSY 3 ONNOA-LONVESsO1H * LOW, BASE & HIGH 5.1.1 WHITEHORSE “Unc. Tagish And Carcross) Domestic Commercial Industrial Street Lighting TOTAL ENERGY : Generation (From 1981/'82 on, TL x 1.079] Peak Load (kW) (From 1981/'82 on, Gen + 4690] Load Factor * CASES 1978/79 (MW ) 71,955 57,062 36,312 2,008 167,337 183,903 39,960 +524 1979/'80 (MWH) 71,002 59,197 36,260 2,193 168,652 181,301 37,240 -555 1980/'81 (MMH) 72,320 61,241 35,623 2,336 171,520 183,526 39,760 527 Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements ESTIMATED 1981/'82 (MWH) 73,601 62,827 38,409 2,770 177,607 191,638 40,861 +535 1982/*83 (Mutt) 71,816 72,497 73,601 61,303 61,885 62,827 36,057 36,057 36,057 2,770 171,946 173,209 175,255 185,530 186 ,893 189,100 39,559 39,849 40,320 -$35 1983/'84 (MH) 70,032 70,039 82,382 59,780 59,787 70,322 27,043 36,057 2,770. 132,582 159,639 191,531 143,056 172,250 206 ,662 30,502 36,727 44,064 -535 1984/'85 (MH) 70,032 70,039 88,049 59,780 59,787 75,160 36,057 2,770 132,582 132,596 202 ,036 143,056 143,071 217,997 30,502 30,506 46,481 +535 1985/'86 (MWH) 70,032 74,872 92,179 59,780 63,912 78,685 132,582 141,554 173,634 143,056 152,737 187,351 30,502 32,566 39,947 +535 Minimal impact is expected on commercial loads because very few if any are electrically heated. 1986/'87 (MWH) 70,032 78,391 89,413 59,780 66,916 76,325 132,582 148,077 168,508 143,056 159,775 181,280 30,502 34,067 38,768 -535 1991/'92 (Mult) 70,032 87,508 58,474 59,780 74,698 83,240 8,400 8,400 2,770 132,582 173,376 152,884 143,056 187 ,073 164 ,962 30,502 39,888 35,173 +535 Lower electrical consumption is due to impact of substitution of natural gas for hot water heating and space heating. 1996/'97 (MH ) 70,032 88,479 50,654 59,780 75,527 76 ,564 8,400 8,400 2,770 132,582 175,176 138, 388 143,056 189,015 149,321 30 ,502 40,302 31,838 -535 2001/ *02 (MWH) 70,032 90,107 58 ,278* 59,780 76,917 83,072 132 ,582 169,794 144,120 143 ,506 183,208 155,505 30,502 39,063 33,157 ~535 - 6€ - "A171 S81V7ID08S8Y 3 ONNOA-AONVESsONH COMMUNITY: _CARMACKS COMMUNITY INFORMATION PROFILE = = =77-7---------------- ACTUAL -------------------- Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual 292 321 330 339 351 (actual) Annual Change 29 12 Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, KWh/Connection Gov't. = 5 = a Non-Gov't. - - - - Combined 9,239 8,946 8,879 8,569 b) Commercial, KWh/capita Gov't. - - - - Non-Gov't. - - - - Combined 2,760 2,346 2,179 2,300 c) Community Consumption, KWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial) 5,726 5,075 5,042 5,265 Sources: YECO calendar year data for connections and NCPC sales data. Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. ‘O11 SSLVIDOSSv 3 ONNOA-LONVESsO NH * BASE CASE Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements wonnn----- ACTUAL ~--------- ESTIMATED ----------------------------- FORECAST ---------------------------------------- CARMACKS 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 1982/'B3 1983/'84 1984/'B5 1985/'86 1986/'B87 1991/92 1996/'97 2001/'02 (MH) (WH) (MW ) (MWH) (MWH) (MWlH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) Domestic 823 879 874 858 845 816 816 873 914 1,020 1,031 1,050 Conmercial 753 719 780 927 913 882 882 943 987 1,102 1,114 1,135 Industrial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- oe pes a ae Street Lighting 53 66 131 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 TOTAL ENERGY: 1,629 1,664 1,785 1,955 1,928 1,868 1,868 1,986 2,071 2,292 2,315 2,355 GENERATION 1,790 1,790 1,910 2,109 2,080 2,016 2,016 2,143 2,235 2,473 2,498 2,541 (From 1981/'82 on TL x 1.079] PEAK LOAD (kW) 384 336 432 439 433 420 420 446 465 515 520 529 [From 1981/'82 on Gen + 4804] LOAD FACTOR 532 - 608 504 -548 -548 -548 -548 -548 +548 -548 ~548 -548 - Ov - "O11 SBLVID0S88VY 8 ONNOA- LONVESSO1IH COMMUNITY INFORMATION PROFILE Population Annual HAINES JUNCTION 1977/'78 343 Annual Change Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. Non-Gov Hise Combined 11,106 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. Non-Gov abt Combined 3,332 c) Communi All Loads (excluding industria ty Consumption, wi capris 1 Sources: 1978/'79 397 54 1979/'80 426 29 YECO calendar year data for connections and NCPC sales data. Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. 25 1980/'81 451 17 Estimate 1981/'82 468 (actual) ‘O11 SSLVID0OS8S8Y 8 ONNOA-LONVESsO 1H Dis 1.3 * BASE CASE HAINES JUNCTION 1978/'79 (MWH) Domestic 1,408 Commercial 1,403 Industrial -- Street Lighting 105 QTAL ENERGY: 2,916 GENERATION 3,205 [From 1981/'82 on, TL x 1.079) PEAK LOAD (kW) 648 [From 1981/'82 on, Gen + 4795) LOAD FACTOR - 564 1979/80 (MWH) 1,446 1,815 94 3,355 3,610 840 -490 1980/'81 (MMH) 1,536 1,714 104 3,354 3,589 696 - 588 Forecast Conmunity Load And Generation Requirements 1981/'B2 (Mult) 1,592 1,677 104 3,373 3,639 759 -547 1982/'83 (MWH) 1,568 1,652 104 3,324 3,587 748 -547 1983/'84 (MH) 1,515 1,596 104 3,215 3,469 723 -547 (MWH) 1,515 1,596 104 3,215 3,469 723 ~547 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'87 FORECAST (MWH) (MWH) 1,619 1,696 1,706 1,786 104 104 3,429 3,586 3,700 3,869 772 807 -547 547 1991/'92 (MH) 1,893 1,994 104 3,991 4,306 898 -547 (MWH) 1,914 2,016 104 4,034 4,353 908 -547 1996/'97 2001/'02 (MWH) 1,949 2,053 104 4,106 4,430 924 -547 -Ilp- "O11 SSLVIDO8SY 8 ONNOA-LONVESEZO NH COMMUNITY: ROSS RIVER COMMUNITY INFORMATION PROFILE = 222 2 22222 ~7377 33777777 ACTUAL -----------~--------- Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual 219 222 232 257 265 (actual) Annual Change 3 10 25 Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. -- -- -- -- Non-Gov't. -- -- -- -- Combined 8,670 8,813 9,115 8,237 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. -- -- -- -- Non-Gov't. -- -- -- -- Combined 2,799 2,797 2,466 2,855 c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial ) 6,795 6,802 6,866 6,673 Sources: YECO calendar year data for connections and NCPC sales data. Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. ‘O11 SS1VID0SSv 3 ONNOA-LONVESSO1NH Cr \> ROSS RIVER Domestic Commercial Industrial Street Lighting TOTAL ENERGY GENERATION [From 1981/'82 on TL x 1.079] PEAK LOAD (kW) [From 1981/'82 on Gen + 4716] LOAD FACTOR 1978/'79 (MH) 846 621 43 1,510 1,617 348 - 630 1979/'80 1980/'81 (MWH) (MWH) 948 922 572 734 73 59 1,593 1,715 1,751 1,835 360 396 -555 -529 Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements 1981/'82 1982/'83 (Mutt) (MWH) 897 884 778 766 4 74 1,749 1,724 1,887 1,860 400 394 -538 -538 1983/'B4 (MuH) 854 740 74 1,668 1,800 382 - 538 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'87 (MwH) 854 740 74 1,668 1,800 382 -538 FORECAST (MWH) (MWH) 912 955 791 829 74 74 1,777 1,858 1,917 2,005 407 425 +538 -538 1991/'92 (Mui) 1,066 925 74 2,065 2,228 472 - 538 1996/'97 2001/'02 (MWH) (MWH) 1,078 1,098 935 952 74 74 2,087 2,124 2,252 2,292 477 486 -538 +538 ‘O11 SB1LVIDOSSY 3 ONNOA-LONVEEsONH COMMUNITY: FARO COMMUNITY INFORMATION PROFILE £22 Wert terre enna nnn ACTUAL ooo men 0 = 8 -- =< —-==- Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual 1,619 1,557 1,633 1,668 1,869 (actual) Annual Change (62) 76 35 201 Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. 13,077 12,478 13,455 16,056 Non-Gov't. 13,395 13,710 13,195 13,947 Combined 13,374 13,641 13,208 14,025 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. 838 879 863 1,036 Non-Gov't. 2,847 2,225 2,565 2,640 Combined 3,685 3,104 3,428 3,676 c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial) 7,017 6,733 6,925 7,822 Sources: NCPC Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. ‘O11 SSiviID0Ssvy 3 ONNOCA-LONVESso1NbH * BASE CASE Forecast Conmunity Load And Generation Requirements acme ACTUAL ---------- ESTIMATED -- on PORRCRET sse sce cen eS E SEAS FARO & ANVIL MINE 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 1982/'83 1983/'84 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'B7 1991/'92 1996/'97 2001/*02 (Mwit) (MH) ~=S (MW) ~=S (MW) «= (MWH) «== (MW) = (MWH) = (MW) = (MMH) = (MMH) (MMH) = (MWH) Domestic 5,579 5,640 6,844 8,975 7,535 7,535 7,535 €,055 8,434 9,415 9,519 9,694 x Commercial 4,833 5,599 6,132 6,589 5,531 5,531 5,531 5,914 6,192 6,911 6,988 7,117 5 Industrial 98,698 96,122 101,040 139,000 133,00¢* 172,900 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 § > Street Lighting 72 70 71 n n 1 71 71 71 71 n n j § JJOTAL ENERGY; 109,182 107,431 114,087 154,635 145,137 -:185,137 233,137 234,040 234,697 236,397 236,578 236,882 Arie 6 Pi ® GENERATION 119,980 114,250 122,039 166,820 157,682 199,763 251,555 252,529 253,238 255,072 255,268 255,596 2 [From 1981/'82 on a TL x 1.079) Qo 9 PEAK LOAD (kW) 18,104 17,059 17,273 «24,304 +» 22,972 ~—29,103 36,648 += «36,790 «36,894 + 37,161 «37,189 37,237 > [From 1981/'82 on a Gen + 6864] o 5 LOAD FACTOR 756 764 806 .783 .783 .783 783 .783 .783 .783 .783 .783 a * Shut-down of Cyprus Anvil Mine anticipated for June and July of 1982. for 1982/83. Anticipated consumption is 160,000 MWH X 10/12 mths = 133,000 MWH COMMUNITY: JOHNSONS CROSSING COMMUNITY FINFORMATION (PROFILE | |) 1) 0) |) (aces oe eee ACTUAL o==<<-<<———=—<-— <== — Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Annual Change Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. -- -- -- -- Non-Gov't. 5,750 3,250 3,500 2,167 Combined 5,750 3,250 3,500 2,167 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. De _ ba a Non-Gov't. = So ze a Combined = ‘ bh ia c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial) — = = ee a Sources: NCPC "O11 S3LVIDOSSY 3 ONNOA-LONVESSsO1NH on * BASE CASE JOHNSONS CROSSING Domestic Commerc ial Industrial Street Lighting JOTAL ENERGY: GENERATION [From 1981/'82 on TL x 1.3642] PEAK LOAD (kW) [From 1981/'82 on Gen + 2420] LOAD FACTOR 1978/'79 (Mil 13 18 31 4l 19 - 246 1979/'80 (Mu) 14 18 32 4 19 ~246 1980/'81 (MH) 13 15 28 43 17 +289 Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements ESTIMATED 1981/'82 (MH) 10 14 24 33 14 -276 1982/'83 (MW) 10 14 24 33 14 276 1983/'B4 (Mult) 10 14 24 33 14 +276 1984/'85 1985/'B6 1986/'87 1991/'92 1996/'97 2001/'02 (MWH) 10 14 24 33 14 +276 FORECAST (MWH) (MWH) (MwH) 10 10 10 14 14 14 24 24 24 33 33 33 14 4 14 -276 +276 -276 (MulH) 10 14 24 33 4 -276 (MuH) 10 14 24 33 14 276 - vv - "C11 S2LVIDSOSSY 8 ONNOA-LONVESsOtIH COMMUNITY: DAWSON CITY COMMUNITY INFORMATION PROFILE £22 wrt rr rrr nnn nnn nana ACTUAL ------------~-------~- Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual 1,033 1,034 1,118 1,109 1,252 Annual Change 1 84 (9) 143 Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. 11,134 11,012 11,111 11,600 Non-Gov't. 5,585 5,706 6,146 6,729 Combined 6,964 7,024 7,346 7,909 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. 1,143 1,491 1,404 1,322 Non-Gov't. 908 1,041 1,165 1,449 Combined 2,051 2,532 2,569 2,771 c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial) 4,375 4,877 4,851 5,362 Sources: NCPC Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. "O11 S3LVIDOSSY 3 ONNOA-LONVESsO4IH oOo be * BASE CASE Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements DAWSON CITY 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 1982/'B3 1983/84 1984/'B5 1985/'86 1986/'B7 1991/'92 1996/'97 2001/'02 (MWH) (Mu) (MMH) (MWH) (Mul) (MWH) (MuH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) Domestic 2,318 2,461 2,776 3,008 3,308 3,308. 3,308 3,536 3,536 3,947 3,985 4,058 Commercial 2,618 2,873 3,073 3,494 3,634 3,634 3,634 3,885 3,885 4,336 4,378 4,457 Industrial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- a =e == a Street Lighting 106 90 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 TOTAL ENERGY: 5,042 5,424 5,946 6,599 7,039 7,039 7,039 7,518 7,518 8,380 8,460 8,612 GENERATION 5,246 6,175 6,768 7,512 8,013 8,013 8,013 8,558 8,558 9,539 9,630 9,803 [From 1981/'82 on TL x 1.1384] PEAK LOAD (kW) 1,070 1,250 1,170 1,452 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,655 1,655 1,844 1,862 1,895 [From 1981/'82 on Gen + 5172) LOAD FACTOR - 560 - 564 -656 -590 -590 -590 -590 -590 -590 -590 -590 -590 - St - “O11 S31LVIDOSSY 8 ONNOA-LONVESsO1IH on * LOW, BASE & HIGH CASES MAYO SYSTEM Domestic Commercial Industrial Street Lighting TOTAL ENERGY: Generation Peak Load (kW) Load Factor 1978/'79 (MWH) 4,807 2,013 16,321 61 23,202 24,360 4,900 - 568 1979/'80 (Mwii) 5,268 2,047 25,396 60 32,771 34,030 4,100 -947 1980/'81 (MWH) 5,171 1,939 23,215 49 30,374 32,364 4,900 753 Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements ESTIMATED 1981/'82 (MWH) 4,896 1,836 24,751 56 31,539 33,116 5,064 746 1982/'83 (MMH) 4,409 1,810 22,915 22,915 22,915 56 29,190 29,190 29,190 30,650 30,650 30,650 4,687 4,687 4,687 -746 1983/'84 (MWH) 4,327 1,752 22,915 22,915 22,915 56 29,050 29,050 29,050 30,503 30,503 30,503 4,665 4,665 4,665 -746 1984/'85 (Mul ) 4,327 1,752 22,915 22,915 22,915 56 29,050 29,050 29,050 30,503 30,503 30,503 4,665 4,665 4,665 -746 1985/'86 (MH) 4,488 1,866 22,915 22,915 50,415 56 29,325 29,325 56,825 30,791 30,791 59,666 4,709 4,709 9,125 -746 1986/'87 (Mutt) 4,606 1,949 22,915 22,915 50,415 56 29,526 29,526 57,026 31,002 31,002 59,877 4,741 4,741 9,157 -746 1991/'92 (MWH) 2,926 2,064 27,500 27,500 56 5,046 32,546 32,546 5,298 34,173 34,173 810 5,226 5,226 +746 1996/'97 (MWH) 2,958 2,086 27,500 27,500 56 5,100 32,600 32,600 5,355 34,230 34,230 819 5,235 5,235 -746 2001/'02 (Mult) 3,013 2,125 27,500 56 5,194 5,194 32,694 5,454 5,454 34,239 834 834 5,250 -746 ‘O17 SBi1vID088Y 8 ONNOA-LONVESsO1IH COMMUNITY: ELSA COMMUNITY INFORMATION PROFILE = ~77-7-7------------- ACTUAL -------------------- Estimate a 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual 583 601 574 609 519 Annual Change 18 (27) 35 (90) Consumption Patterns (Annual a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. No Data Available Non-Gov't. Combined b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. Non Gov't. Combined c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial) Sources: Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. ‘O11 S3LVIDOSSY 3 ONNOA-LONVESsO NH * BASE CASE Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements ---------- ACTUAL ------------ ESTIMATED ---------------------------- FORECAST 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 1982/'83 1983/'84 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'87 1991/'92 1996/'97 2001/'02 (WH) (MWH) = (MWH) = (MWH) = (MWH) = (MMH) = (MH) (MWH) = (MWH) = (MH) (MWH) (MH) Domest ic 2,667 2,801 2,836 = 2,435 = 1,985 = 1,985 = 1,985 1,985 1,985 aaa a ~ Conmercial 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 = oe eS Industrial 16,321 25,396 23,215 24,751 22,915 22,915 22,915 22,915 22,915 -- -- -- Street Lighting -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- =e = TOTAL ENERGY: 19,088 28,297 26,151 27,286 += 25,000 25,000 © 25,000 25,000 25,000 a =o == GENERATION 20,042 29,372 27,877 28,650 26,250 26,250 26,250 26,250 26,250 -- are == [From 1981/'82 on = TL x 1.050) PEAK LOAD (kW) 4,668 4,728 4,572 4,630 4,242 4,202 4,242 4,242 4,242 -- -- -- [From 1981/'82 on Gen + 6188) LOAD FACTOR -490 -709 -700 705 705 -705 -705 -705 .705 -- -- -- Primary 15,958 18,319 13,288 16,372 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 -- -- -- Secondary 3,130 9,978 12,863 10,914 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 -- -- -- Total 19,088 28,297 26,151 27,286 25,000 _ 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 -- -- -- = Lv - O11 SSiLVvID0SSY 3 ONNOA-LONVEasZOH COMMUNITY: KENO CITY COMMUNITY INFORMATION PROFILE == ~==~7~-~~~--------- ACTUAL -------------------- Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Annual Change . a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. = == = = Non-Gov't. -- -- -- -- Combined 4,200 4,548 5,000 4,107 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. -- -- a = Non-Gov't. oo —_ = as Combined -- on -- <n c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial -- -- eo oes Sources: YECO calendar data and NCPC sales data. ‘O11 SSLVISOSSY 38 ONNOCA-ACNVYESsO IH on JN * BASE CASE Forecast Coumunity Load And Generation Requirements ---------- ACTUAL ----------- ESTIMATED ----------------------------- FORECAST --------------------------------------- KENO CITY 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 1982/'83 1983/'84 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'87 1991/'92 1996/°97 2001/'02 (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MH) (MW) (MWH) (Mult) (MWH) (MH) (MH) (MWH) Domestic 141 165 152 130 128 124 124 132 138 155 156 159 Comnercial 76 76 56 42 41 40 40 43 45 50 50 51 Industrial -- =< -- -- -- -- -- -- a -- -- -- Street Lighting 28 27 19 2s 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 TOTAL ENERGY: 245 268 227 195 192 187 187 198 206 228 229 233 GENERATION 257 278 242 205 202 196 196 208 216 239 240 245 [From 1981/'82 on TL x 1.050) PEAK LOAD (kW) 73 79 70 60 60 57 57 60 63 69 70 71 [From 1981/'82 on Gen + 3445] LOAD FACTOR - 383 -401 +394 393 -393 -393 -393 393 -393 +393 -393 -393 - Sv - "O17 SALVISOSSY 3 ONNOA-LONVESsONH COMMUNITY: MAYO COMMUNE TY; TNEORMATION |PROP-ELE |\)))) 5) ) 1) 0) 0) en a CORY LIN Ty ar Estimate 1977/'78 1978/'79 1979/'80 1980/'81 1981/'82 Population Annual 477 486 479 489 474 Annual Change 9 (7) 10 (15) Consumption Patterns (Annual) a) Domestic, kWh/Connection Gov't. 13,865 16,980 18,500 14,067 Non-Gov't. 9,908 10,116 11,356 12,016 Combined 11,186 12,264 13,541 12,546 b) Commercial, kWh/capita Gov't. 2,868 2,533 2,533 2,108 Non-Gov't. ig key/ 1,247 1,374 1,538 Combined 4,025 3,780 3,907 3,646 c) Community Consumption, kWh/capita All Loads (excluding industrial ) 7,870 7,961 8,781 8,171 Sources: NCPC Yukon Economic Review, Sept. 1981. ‘Oi1 SSLVID0S8S8Y 3 ONNOA-LONVESEsO NH * BASE CASE MAYO TOWNSITE Domestic Commercial Industrial Street Lighting TOTAL ENERGY: GENERATION (From 1981/'82 on TL x 1.050] PEAK LOAD (kW) (From 1981/'82 on Gen + 4795] LOAD FACTOR 1978/'79 (Mul) 1,999 1,837 33 3,869 4,062 1,000 -463 ACTUAL (MH) 2,302 1,871 33 4,206 4,366 900 -553 1979/'80 1980/'81 (MH) 2,183 1,783 30 3,996 4,260 900 -540 Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements 1981/82 (HW) 2,331 1,694 33 4,058 4,261 889 -547 1982/'83 (MW) 2,296 1,669 33 3,998 4,198 875 ~547 (MMH) 2,218 1,612 33 3,863 4,056 846 547 (MH) 2,218 1,612 33 3,863 4,056 846 -547 ---- FORECAST --- 1983/'84 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'87 (MMH) I 2,371 1,723 33 4,127 4,333 904 -547 (Mult) 2,483 1,804 33 4,320 4,536 946 -547 (Mw) 2,771 2,014 33 4,818 5,059 1,055 ~547 (Mul) 2,802 2,036 33 4,871 5,115 1,067 547 1991/'92 1996/'97 2001/'02 (MWH) 2,854 2,074 33 4,961 5,209 1,086 -547 - 67 - ‘O11 S8LVIS08S8vY 3 ONNOA-AONVESsO IH * LOW, BASE & HIGH CASES Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements 5.5 TOTAL YUKON 1978/'79 1979/'80 —:1980/'81 ~—:1981/'82 —:1982/'83—-:1983/'84 =—-:1984/'85 —-:1985/'86 ~=—:1986/'B7 1991/92 1996/'97 —2001/'02 (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH ) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (MWH) Domestic 87,749 87,658 90,456 93,837 90,375 88,397 88 ,397 89,525 90,183 90,309 90,527 90,904 91,056 88,404 88,404 94,365 98 ,542 107,785 108 ,974 110,979 92,160 100,747 106,414 111,672 109,564 78,751 71,149 79,150 Commercial 69,321 72,840 75,628 78,142 75,623 73,929 73,929 74,899 75,422 77,126 77,311 77,633 76,205 73,936 73,936 79,031 82,558 92,044 93 ,058 94,770 77,147 84,471 89,309 93,804 91,967 100 ,586 94,095 100,925 Industrial 151,331 157,778 159,878 202,160 191,972 194,915 242,915 242,915 242,915 220,000 220,000 220,000 : 191,972 221,958 242,915 242,915 242,915 255,900 255,990 550,700 191,972 230,972 278,972 270,415 270,415 255,900 586,600 578,200 Street Lighting 2,448 2,646 2,847 3,342 3,342 3,342 3,342 3,342 3,342 3,342 3,342 3,342 TOTAL ENERGY: 310,849 320,922 328,809 377,481 361,312 360,583 408 ,583 410,681 411,862 390,777 391,180 391,877 362,575 387 ,640 408 ,597 419,653 427,357 459,071 461,274 759,791 364,621 419,532 478,037 479,233 475 ,288 438,579 755,186 161,617 Generation 340,086 344,278 352,024 406,786 389,435 383,652 440,444 442,727 443,996 422 ,006 422,444 423,205 399,798 417,847 440,459 452,408 460,715 494,264 497 ,278 620,182 393,005 452,258 515,385 515,897 511,635 472,787 814,409 221,265 "O11 SSLVIDOSSY 8 ONNOA-LONVESSO NNN HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. APPENDIX ONE Methodology And Population Forecasts HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 51 - APPENDIX ONE Methodology And Population Forecasts The basic methodology used in this report for forecasting domestic and commercial electrical consumption in Yukon is contingent on a population forecast and a method of translating these population forecasts into electrical consumption forecasts. In the past, the Economic Research and Planning Unit of the Govern- ment of Yukon would publish population projections based on their "Yukon Economic Impact Simulation Model" in the first quarter of the year. However, due to other commitments by Yukon Government staff, these projections were not available in the first quarter of 1982. Therefore population forecasts had to be prepared by the consultant based on various scenarios of economic growth. The method used for translating population changes into forecasts for electrical consumption at both the domestic and commercial level is as follows: Cr = Cp * Cy (Pe - Pp) B where Ce = Forecast of Consumption. Cp = Prior years Consumption. Cy/Pp = Per capita consumption in the base year, in this case, 1981/'82. HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 52 - (Pe - Po) = Change in population in the forecast year from the prior year. Basically this is a method based on per capita consumption of electricity and requires population forecasts in order to obtain electrical consumption forecasts. The per capita consumption data was calculated from estimated 1981/'82 data on population and electrical consumption in the domestic and commercial sector. Forecasts of industrial load were obtained directly from industrial customers based on their expectations of growth or decline in their industry. The population forecasts for Yukon presented in Table 1-B were prepared based on the following assumptions: a) No real growth in the tourism industry for the base case and the low case and nominal real growth in the high case; b) Average family size of in-migrant workers of 2.14/, c) —— family size of in-migrants for the construction phase of 1.53/35 d) Direct and indirect employment multiplier of 2.0 in the mining industry. 1/. "Yukon Population Projection 1980-1995", Economic Research and Planning Unit, Government of Yukon, January, 1980. HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. ey 53i= Table 1-A Timing Of Employment Impacts Scenario Direct Item Employment Low Base High United Keno Hill - Layoffs - 90 1982/'83 1982/'83 1982/'83 - Closure - 190 End of 1987/'88 End of 1988/'89 End of 1990/'91 Cyprus Anvil - Layoffs - 98 1982/'83 1982/'83 1982/'83 Whitehorse Copper - Closure - 200 End of 1982/'83 End of 1983 End of 1984/'85 Mactung - Construction + 300 -- 985/'86 1983/'84 Production '87/'88 Production '85/'86 Kathleen Lakes - Construction + 250 -- 1985/'86 1983/'84 Production '87/'88 Production '85/'86 closes in'96/'97 closes after '01/'02 Venus Mine - Re-Opens + 45 -- 1988/'89 1987/'88 Tom - Construction + 400 -- 1986/'87 1984/'85 Production '88/'89 Production 86/'87 Hydro project for Mac Pass - Construction + 200 -- 1990/'91 1989/'90 + 100 1991/'92 1990/'91 + 300 1992/'93 1991/'92 - 300 1995/'96 1992/'93 - 100 1996/'97 1994/'95 - 140 1997/'98 1996/'97 Jason - Construction + 400 -- 1988/'89 1986/'87 Production '90/'91 Production '88/'89 Summitt Lake - Construction + 400 -- 1992/'93 1989/'90 Production '94/'95 Production '91/'92 Alaska (Foothills) Gas Pipeline - Pre-Con- Struction © 2575 -- -- 1983/'84 + 525 1984/'85 + 250 1985/'86 - 875 1986/'87 =) 1c75) 1987/'88 Cee OU EE a eee ELE EHAMae Eee LEELA 2 Orla Ee Forecast Population Growth Table 1-B In Yukon From 1981/'82 To 2001/'02 1981/'82 Actual 1981/'83 1983/'84 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'87 1991/'92 1996/'97 2001/'02 TOTAL CHANGE AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE Low High 1 Ge Forecast % Forecast % Forecast % Population Change Population Change Population Change 25,121 25,121 25,121 23,903 -4.85% 24,743 -1.50% 24,743 -1.50% 23,903 -- 23,903 -3.39% 28,118 13.64% 23,903 -- 23,903 =a 30,053 6.88% 23,903 -- 25,553 6.90% 31,463 4.69% 23,903 -- 26,753 4.70% 30,518 -3.00% 23,105 -3.34 29,864 11.63% 33,284 9.06% 23,105 -- 30,194 1.11% 30,614 -8.02% 23,105 -- 30,750 1.84% 33,216 8.50% -8.03% 22.41% 32.22% -0.42% 1.02% 1.41% Source: Hildebrandt-Young & Associates Ltd. - 7G - ‘G11 SALVIDOSSY 8S ONNOA-LONVESZO 1H HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. ==55 By linking the timing of the employment impacts of various mining closures and openings and other projects as illustrated in Table 1-A to the various multipliers mentioned in b, c, and d above, population forecasts in Table 1-B were generated for Yukon from 1981/'82 to 2001/'02 for low, base and high scenarios of economic activity. In order to take into account the differential impacts on the various communities in Yukon, a further breakdown was required as illustrated in Table 1-C. For the communities of Whitehorse, Carmacks, Haines Junction, Ross River, Keno City and Mayo the base case forecast resulted in an average annual population increase of 1.02% for the 20-year period. Because of Whitehorse's size and importance, low and high case scenarios were also constructed. The low case scenario resulted ina decrease of 0.25% per year in population over the 20-year forecast period. The high case scenario yielded a population increase of 1.41% per year over the same time period. Population projections for Faro, Dawson City and Elsa were adjusted for the following reasons: Table 1-C Percentage Population Change For Each Community In Yukon From 1981/'82 To 2001/'02 1982/'83 1983/'84 1984/'85 1985/'86 1986/'87 1991/'92 1996/'97 2001/'02 TOTAL CHANGE AVERAGE ANNUAL CHARGE Carmacks, Haines Junction Whitehorse Ross River, Keno City, Mayo Faro Dawson City Elsa Low Base High Base Base Base Base z 2 & z z z z -2.43 -1.50 0.0 -1.50 -16.0 1.10 -18.5 -2.48 -3.39 11.93 -3.39 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.88 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.90 4.69 6.90 6.90 6.90 0.0 0.0 4.70 -3.00 4.70 4.70 0.00 0.0 0.0 11.63 9.06 11.63 11.63 11.63 Mine Closed 0.0 1.11 -8.02 1.11 1.11 1.11 0.0 1.84 8.50 1.84 1.84 1.84 -4.85% 22.41% 32.22% 22.41% 8.07% 35.16% -0.25% 1.02% 1.41% 1.02% 0.39% 1.52% 1/. Includes Tagish and Carcross. - 96 - "O11 SSLVIDOSSY 3S ONNOA-LONVESZO IH HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 57 - Faro is expected to decrease in size due to the permanent lay-off of 95 employees by Cyprus Anvil, the major employer in the area. Dawson City; population is expected to grow by 10% in 1982/'83 due to continued expansion in tourism construction in the community. Projects presently under construction and coming on-stream in 1982/'83 are: - new hotel of 40 rooms on-stream in May, 1982, - triple J cabins adding 21 rooms, a dining room and restaurant in May, 1982, - a new Visitor's Association office building in June, 1982, - a new laundromat, - a fish packing plant, - 10 new houses in the summer, - Gold City Hotel (presently called the Sheffield) to add 90 new rooms, - installation of a Gulf Oil] bulk plant. Elsa is expected to show a decrease in population due to lay-offs by United Keno Hill mines of 90 employees. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. APPENDIX TWO Conversion Of Hot Water Heating And Electric Space Heating To Natural Gas HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 58 - Appendix Two Conversion Of Hot Water Heating And Electric Space Heating To Natural Gas In the high economic growth scenario presented in this report, it is assumed that the Alaska (Foothills) Gas Pipeline would be constructed by the end of 1987/'88. Such a nearby and relatively cheap energy source would in all probability result in the conversion of electric- ally-heated houses and hot water heating loads from electricity to natural gas. As stated in our previous Yukon Market Forecast of June 1981, there are currently about 7,000 single-detached family dwelling units in the Yukon of which approximately 1,000 are heated with electricity. Since there is no natural gas distribution system in Yukon, it can be assumed that water is heated with electric water heaters which if based on a 40 gallon tank, would require 4,000 kWh per year, as estimated by Energy, Mines and Resources. Assuming a natural gas distribution system were installed in White- horse, an estimate of the potential savings in electricity can be made. The population of Whitehorse in 1981 was 17,023 out of a total Yukon population of 25,121 or 67% of the territorial population. Based on this, and that 1,000 electrically-heated houses could be converted to natural gas, the following estimate can be made: HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 59 - 1,000 residences in Whitehorse with electric heat using 30,000 kWh per year ............006. 30,000 MWH 7,000 residences in total Yukon x 67% in Whitehorse using 4,000 kWh per year for hot water heating eerie icioreleicieloialereieieeisem VOr5000 WH TOE adi) saree sptove oyu 00 for oie clei oveVe le elelofaveve cielore 48,800 MWH There is a potential saving therefore in the domestic sector of 48,800 MWH of electricity in the Aishihik-Whitehorse-Faro System. Assuming a conversion rate of 50% in the first year, 20% in the second, and 5% in the third and fourth years for a total conversion of 80%, the reduction in domestic loads for the high case scenario is estimated as follows: 1988/'89 1989/'90 1990/'91 1991/'92 Since the commercial sector does not use electricity for space heating purposes and the hot water loads vary from business to business from very little consumption for a furniture store to very 50% reduction in Year I -24,400 MWH 20% reduction in Year II - 9,760 MWH 5% reduction in Year III - 2,440 MWH 5% reduction in Year IV - 2,440 MWH TOTAL REDUCTION -39,040 MWH HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - .60 - high in restaurants, no estimate has been attempted. However, some conversions in the commercial sector will occur. The above reductions in electrical consumption have been incorporated into the high case scenario thereby reducing domestic consumption in the high case forecast years of 1991/'92, 1996/'97 and 2001/'02. HILDEBRANOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. APPENDIX THREE Production And Distribution Of Electricity In Yukon HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. = 61 = Production And Distribution Of Electricity In Yukon Community AISHIHIK-WHITEHORSE- FARO SYSTEM: Whitehorse (inc. Tagish and Carcross) Carmacks Haines Junction Ross River Faro MAYO SYSTEM: Elsa and Keno Hill Mine Keno City Mayo QTHER COMMUNITIES: Johnson's Crossing Dawson City COMMUNITIES EXCLUDED INTHIS STUDY: Beaver Creek Destruction Bay Old Crow Pelly Crossing Stewart Crossing Swift River Teslin Watson Lake J Generated By: NCPC and YECO™ NCPC NCPC NCPC NCPC NCPC NCPC NCPC NCPC NCPC YECO YECO - Yukon Electrical Company. UKHML - United Keno Hill Mine Ltd. Distributed By: YECO YECO YECO YECO NCPC * UKHML YECO NCPC NCPC NCPC YECO i) * NCPC - Northern Canada Power Commission. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. APPENDIX FOUR Forecast For Field, B.C. HILDEBRANDT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD. - 62 - Appendix Four Forecast For Field, B.C. The forecast for Field, B.C. is predicated on the following assump- tions: a) b) no change in government domestic load, an increase in Government Commercial load due to the installation of a new sewage plant, ‘a decrease in Non-Government Domestic load due to high and rising electrical costs (i.e. $0.25 per kWh) which spurs conservation, a decrease in Non-Government Commercial load due high and rising electrical costs (i.e. $0.32 per kWh) which spurs conservation, no change in Street Lighting consumption. BASE CASE ONLY IELO, B.C. COMMUNITY LOADS GOVERNMENT Domestic Commercial Wholesale NON-GOVERNMENT Domestic Commerc ial Wholesale STREET LIGHTING JOTAL ENERGY: GENERATION (TL x 1.138) PEAK LOAD (kW) (GEN. + 5075.5) LOAD FACTOR 1978/'79 (WH) 23 239 362 406 29 1,059 1,246 245 -581 1979/'80 1980/'81 (MWH) (MWH) 22 255 359 414 29 1,079 1,211 250 553 21 243 353 444 2 1,090 1,216 230 -603 Forecast Community Load And Generation Requirements ESTIMATED 1981/ ‘82 (MMH) 29 238 315 434 29 1,045 1,189 234 -579 1982/'83 (MWH) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 238 -579 1983/'84 (MMH) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 1,207 -579 1984/'85 (MWH) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 1,207 -579 (MWH) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 1,207 -579 1985/'86 1986/'87 (MWH) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 1,207 -579 1991/'92 (mutt) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 1,207 -579 1996/'97 (MH) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 1,207 -579 2001/ '02 (Mut) 29 268 310 425 29 1,061 1,207 1,207 +579 - €9 - “O17 SS1LVIDOSSY 8 ONNOA-LONVESSO1H HILDEBRANDOT-YOUNG & ASSOCIATES LTD.