HomeMy WebLinkAboutAEA Board Meeting Jan 2013
Alaska Energy Authority
BOARD MEETING MINUTES
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska
1. CALL TO ORDER
Chair Hugh Short called the meeting of the Alaska Energy Authority to order on January 10,
2013 at 10:02 am. A quorum was established.
2. ROLL CALL: BOARD
Members present in Fairbanks: Chair Hugh Short (Public Member); Vice Chair Susan Bell
(Commissioner, Department Commerce, Community, and Economic Development); Bryan
Butcher (Commissioner, Department of Revenue); Robert Sheldon (Public Member); and Gary
Wilken (Public Member).
3. AGENDA APPROVAL
The agenda was approved as presented.
4. ROLL CALL: STAFF, PUBLIC
Staff present in Fairbanks: Sara Fisher-Goad (AEA Executive Director); Gene Therriault (AEA
Deputy Director-Energy Policy Development); Nick Szymoniak (AEA Project Economist); Wayne
Dyok (AEA Lead Project Manager-Susitna-Watana); Emily Ford (AEA Public Outreach Liaison);
Ted Leonard (AIDEA Executive Director); Mark Davis (AIDEA Deputy Director-Infrastructure
Development); Karl Reiche (AIDEA Project Manager-Rural Energy); Jim Strandberg (AIDEA
Energy Development Finance Officer); and Teri Webster (AEA Executive Assistant).
Others present in Fairbanks: Luke Hopkins (Mayor,Fairbanks North Star Borough); Brian
Bjorkquist (Department of Law); Mark Gardiner (Western Financial Group); Bob Shefchik
(UAF/Interior Gas Utility); Michael Manwaring and Mark Dalton (HDR Alaska); and Mark Rowley
(PTP Management).
Staff present in Anchorage: Sandra Moller (AEA Deputy Director-Rural Energy Group); Kirk
Warren (AEA Project Manager); Bryan Carey (AEA Engineering Manager); Aaron Rhoades
(Human Resource Manager); Sara Nogg (Data System Specialist); Sandie Hayes (AEA
Administrative Assistant); Sherrie Siverson (AIDEA Executive Assistant); and Krin Kemppainen
(AIDEA Administrative Assistant).
Others present in Anchorage: Tim Bradner (AK Journal of Commerce); Jan Konigsberg (Alaska
Hydro Project); and Donovan Walker (AccuType Depositions).
Others participating via teleconference: Richard Leo, Elaine Wolf, Whitney Wolfe, and Becky
Long (Coalition for Susitna Dam Alternatives); John Foutz (City of Seward); Brian Sadden
(MWH); Joe Griffith and Don Zoerb (Matanuska Electric Association); Chan Wong (AECOM,
Winnipeg); and Jan Konigsberg (Alaska Hydropower).
AEA Board Meeting Minutes
January 10, 2013
Page 2 of 5
5. PUBLIC COMMENTS
Mayor Luke Hopkins welcomed the AEA Board to Fairbanks. Mayor Hopkins stated Fairbanks
and other communities in Alaska have an energy crisis and stated by the availability of energy
sources, the high cost of utilities will be reduced. Mayor Hopkins spoke of his support of the
Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project. He stated the Assembly has a resolution before the body
this evening regarding the revised study plans and provided copies of the resolution. Mayor
Hopkins stated the leaders in the Fairbanks community support the idea of moving as rapidly as
Federal Energy Regulation Committee’s (FERC) would consider into the next phase of this
project.
Mayor Hopkins commented there is also a natural gas issue in the Fairbanks community and
that it is important for their community to receive the lowest cost for natural gas to be able to
distribute it to the most residents in the shortest amount of time. Mayor Hopkins stated there are
overwhelming air quality problems and natural gas will help to eliminate these issues but the
community should be prudent when discussing the way gas will be distributed.
Mr. Jan Konigsberg stated he works for groups needing technical assistance in the conventional
hydro-electric FERC licensing process in Alaska. As a public stakeholder, he raised a concern
regarding the timeline of the FERC licensing process and does not think FERC is delaying the
process for the revised study plans. He also believes that certain details, such as where the
sites are and the data collection methods used, are missing from the study plans and this may
be the reason FERC decided to extend the comment deadline by two months.
Ms. Becky Long stated she is concerned that the Integrated Licensing Process (ILP) study plan
approval process is flawed because the results from the 2012 studies will not be available until
after the approval process ends and those results are what set the parameters for the Revised
Study Plans (RSP). She also believes the project is relying too heavily on the 1980 studies that
were not completed. Ms. Long said numerous stakeholders have requested the AEA studies be
peer reviewed and have been declined.
Mr. Richard Leo expressed concern that expediting the licensing process would hamper the
study plans that determine the dam’s impact on fish, water flow, recreation use and safety. Mr.
Leo stated there are a number of critical issues with the dam design, including its need to
release very large flows of water in the wintertime to meet electrical demand and what effects
that will have on winter travel. Other issues include what effects the dam will have on water
quality, ground water and the possibility of large tracts of forest dying. He said these potential
environmental effects may show that the dam is not worth being built. Mr. Leo also states it is
not appropriate for AEA staff to lobby for the project in public venues across the State and ask
that letters be written to FERC requesting the licensing process be fast-tracked. Mr. Leo said
the economics of the dam are also a concern as he believes that natural gas will be used for
most of the Railbelt energy needs and we will not need the dam as an energy source after a
natural gasline is built.
6. PRIOR MINUTES
The December 6, 2012 AEA Board meeting minutes were adopted as amended.
7. NEW BUSINESS
AEA Board Meeting Minutes
January 10, 2013
Page 3 of 5
7A. Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Update
Mr. Dyok, Mr. Szymoniak, and Mr. Strandberg provided a PowerPoint presentation on the
update of the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project. They reviewed project highlights, licensing,
engineering, and economics updates.
The complete PowerPoint presentation is available on AEA’s website under Announcements
http://www.akenergyauthority.org/
Chair Short asked Mr. Dyok to explain what the FERC regulations are regarding their response
once a study plan has been filed. Mr. Dyok stated the regulations call for FERC to have 15 days
to comment after a revised study plan is filed and 30 days to make the study plan determination.
Mr. Wilken asked Mr. Dyok to explain what happens on February 1st regarding the 45 studies.
Mr. Dyok stated FERC has completed a preliminary review of the 58 studies and feel
comfortable that there is enough information for 45 of those studies to make a determination.
Mr. Sheldon asked Mr. Dyok if FERC’s response was consistent with protocol in regards to the
13 remaining studies. Mr. Dyok stated he doesn't think FERC skipped a step, but they were
surprised at FERC's letter on December 31st ordering the file date to be March 15, 2013 vs. Feb
1, 2013 due to insufficient detail on 13 study plans. Mr. Dyok said they quickly responded and
provided the basis and justification for the suggested alternative schedule.
Chair Short asked Mr. Dyok, given his many years of experience, to characterize AEA's study
plan, submission, overall quality of the work, and thoroughness of the studies. Mr. Dyok
characterized it with the word "unprecedented." He stated this is the most formidable study plan
he has ever been associated with during his work in 25 different states.
Chair Short asked Mr. Dyok what the implications are to the overall project timeline if these 13
studies aren't approved in a timely manner and there is no field work conducted this field
season. Mr. Dyok stated there could be as much as a year's delay if the 2013 summer field work
is not conducted. He said it is important to have a decision by April 1st in order to implement
whatever changes FERC might add or require to the study plans. Mr. Dyok commented if the
studies are implemented without FERC's approval, then there is risk of reperformance of work in
subsequent years.
Mr. Wilken asked Mr. Dyok what AECOM's budget is. Mr. Dyok stated it was approximately
$250,000. Mr. Wilken requested Mr. Dyok provide the Board a record of where AECOM has had
experience with RCC dams in arctic conditions.
Mr. Sheldon thanked staff for Slide #13, which shows the curve of the probabilistic range of total
project costs. He appreciated it being included in the packet.
Mr. Sheldon asked Mr. Szymoniak if inflation contributes to the overall case for the project over
time because it budgets future relevancy of the project. Mr. Szymoniak stated he dedicated
Slide #15 to make that point.
Chair Short asked Mr. Szymoniak what the cost increase would be if we assumed another year
of delay for the project. Mr. Szymoniak stated it would be an increase in inflation in the range of
$143 million dollars. Chair Short asked Mr. Szymoniak why he was using 5% as the interest rate
AEA Board Meeting Minutes
January 10, 2013
Page 4 of 5
on the Base Case Economic Assumptions slide. He also asked how the 30 years debt term was
determined. Mr. Szymoniak stated these preliminary assumptions are intentionally conservative
because the finance plan has not been developed. He said if the interest rate goes down and
the debt term is lengthened, the power cost will be lowered. Mr. Szymoniak expects that almost
all the finance work will optimize the project and bring down the power cost.
Chair Short asked Mr. Szymoniak if the 12-year break-even point could be brought down into
the single digits if there was state investment or favorable financing or longer financing terms as
factors in the equation. Mr. Szymoniak stated they fully expect that to happen.
Mr. Wilken asked Mr. Szymoniak in testing the model on Slide #23, if the $6.00 floor should be
realistically lower to reflect the experience over the last three or four years. Mr. Szymoniak
asked Mr. Wilken if he was referring to North Slope gas prices. Mr. Wilken commented a
definition of the prices being used is needed. Mr. Szymoniak stated the prices are at the burner
tip, the utility cost. Chair Short stated he has seen estimates with trucking in the range of $16 to
$18 per Mcf by time it reaches the burner tip. Mr. Szymoniak said that $16 to $18 includes
distribution to get the gas to the actual homes and the cost for industrial or electric generation is
closer to $10 or $11 per Mcf.
Mr. Sheldon asked Mr. Szymoniak if Japan is willing to pay $16 to $18 for delivered gas. Mr.
Szymoniak stated the range sounds familiar. Mr. Sheldon asked if the recent auction of the non-
delivered gas in the Inlet for $15 was accurate. Mr. Szymoniak stated he doesn't know which
auction Mr. Sheldon referred to, but he has seen natural gas prices in the Cook Inlet in th e
upper part of that range. Mr. Sheldon requested it be made clear the numbers used in the
presentation be delivered numbers. He also stated he would forward studies to the Chair which
show the break-even point for natural gas development in the continental United States as
somewhere around six to eight dollars per Mcf.
Mr. Wilken asked Mr. Strandberg if Bradley Lake was modeled after the graph on Slide #17,
would the cost of power get cheaper every year. Mr. Strandberg stated if there was exactly the
same work effort and a leveled debt service, the number will stay the same, but the effects of
inflation cause the actual cost to go down. Mr. Szymoniak stated Slide #21 answers the
question showing the real dollars declining over time.
Chair Short commented he received an email from the Coalition for Susitna Dam Alternatives
with the subject line of “inappropriate AEA activities”. Chair Short stated he puts his full support
behind Mr. Dyok and AEA staff including their activities in regards to the Susitna-Watana
Hydroelectric Project. He believes they have conducted an unprecedented outreach to the
public through multiple, extensive meetings. Chair Short commented the Board has been
transparent in putting a project together that he thinks addresses the scientific concerns, the
needs of the state of Alaska and stands up on its own on economic terms. He thanked and
commended Mr. Dyok and the Executive Director for leading us through this process.
Commissioner Bell stated she is pleased with the process the Board uses. It took a foundation
of analysis and confidence in order for the Legislature to vote unanimous and to have the
Governor move forward with funding in the State budget. We need to continue to be
professional, respectful and open in the future years of this project.