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HomeMy WebLinkAboutNome Load Forecast-Tables & Figures 1989 EMPLOYMENT (AK Dept of Labor) Mining (1) Construction Trans/Comm/Util Trade F.LRE. Services (2) Fed Government State Government Local Government Total DOL Employment Less: Bering Sts School Dist Less: CETA workers Adjusted DOL Employment Less: Mining Less: 1/2 Construction Less: Benchmarking to IAI (3) Benchmarked Indoor Employment POPULATION City of Nome AK Dept. of Labor (4) 1984 Avg Growth) 19801981 19821983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 80-89 98 131 107 131 106 a7 65 143° 269 238 10.4% 18 18 61 75 50 41 31 19 28 35 719% 120 120 120 124 100 74 77 105 129 132 1.0% 148 176 196 195 200 «2022S 221 208 = 211 202 3.5% 30 36 37 47 45 61 40 ot 0 26 -14% 540, (S17, 406 432 446 471 455 464 449 S01 -0.8% 98 89 799 88 91 98 93 89 90 92 0.7% 172 186 213 236 26 240 235s 209s 224 3.0% 336 389) 435) S11 575 604 598 580 628 = =©623 71% 1,568 1,671 1,666 1,804 1,860 1,858 1,847 1,853 2,045 2,081 3.2% 178 194241 287 374 = 429 372, 400 = 400 400 94% 140 117 1,250 1,360 1,425 1,517 1,486 1,429 1,475 1,453 1,645 1,681 3.3% 98 131 107 131 106 37 65 143-269 238 9 7 31 37 2s 21 16 9 14 18 97 97 97 oT 97 97 97 97 97 97 1,046 1,123 1,190 1,252 1,258 1.254 1,297 1,204 1,265 1,328 2.7% 3,000 3,039 3,430 3,620 3,791 3,876 2,430 Sources: Minerals Mgmt Service 1990 (employment); Waring 1989 (population); Personal Communication Judy Hallanger, ADOL, 10/15/90 (population 1987-89). Notes: @ Q) QB) other industries. When CETA service workers (1980-1981) are removed, average growth rate is 2.6%. Data collected in a survey by Impact Assessment, Inc. (1987) are believed by Knapp (1990) to be best single year snapshot Mining is partially suppressed in years 1980-86. Estimated during those years as a residual, using total and sum of all of employment and are used in the RAM forecasting model. Benchmarking adjustment forces DOL data series to be equal to IAI series in 1986. (4) Figure for 1980 is US Census, believed to be a significant undercount. Average growth rate for 1981-89 is 1.8%. Table 3.\ | Assumption | Oil Prices in 1989 $ 1990 $18 $18 $18 2000 $14 $19 $26 2010 $14 $21 $35 | Tourise | 3% per year 3% per year 5% per year | Tourise | Petroleum West Sak, Production after 2000 : Fishing Constant at Constant at Constant at Employment 15,700 “5, 700, —|_—ai15,7 21S, 700 Table 3-2 1981 1982 __:1983__:1984_— 1985-1986 __1987 ale a) Total Sales, MWh 14,629 16,148 17,534 18,515 19,024 20,379 20,785 b) Residential Class Sales, MWh 4,530 5,327 6,004 6,354 6,257 6,492 6,995 c) Residential Customers 829° 953 «1,119 1,164 1,160 1,151 1,197 Kd) Use/Resid. Cust., kWh, b * 1000 /c 5,464 5,590 5,366 5,459 5,394 5,640 5,844 e) Resid. Cust. classified as Commercial 93 107 125 130 130 129 134 (f) Sales to Misclass. Cust., MWh, d xe S01 Soe Oe aA 0: — 721. Tae g) Adj. Residential Sales, MWh, b + f , 5923 6676 7,065 6,957 7,219 7,778 h) Adj. Residential Customers, c + € 1,060 1,244 1,294 1,290 1,280 1,331 i) Adj. Use/Resid. Cust., kWh, g * 1000 5,590 5,366 5,459 5,394 5,640 5,844 228 228 228 215 192 304 k) Net Commercial, Commun. Facil., & Street Lighting Sales, MWh, a - g - j Tolle $e c Assumption Population People per Customer Use per Customer -0.25% per -0.25% per year year -0.45% per -0.2% per year year Jalle Se f -0.25% per year Onshore, Summertime Gold Mining Onshore, Year-Round Gold Mining Offshore Gold Mining Decline to 12,000 ounces/yr by 1992. 450 kWh/ounce, 31% load factor. jalele 25,000 ounces/yr, 450 kWh/ounce, 31% load factor. 17,000 ounce/yr dredge begins operation in 1995. 60 kWh/ounce onshore use, 22% load factor. $3.» Rise from 25,000 ounces/yr to 32,000 ounces/yr by 1992, 450 kWh/ounce, 31% load factor. Cyprus starts in 1992 at 30,000 ounces/yr, 350 kWh/ounce, 80% load factor. Two dredges by 1993, 34,000 ounces/yr, 60 kWh/ounce, 22% load factor. Summer Off-shore Mining Mining Mining 0.08 100.0% 0.08 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.08 100.08 100.08 100.08 Month my E AUG c 100.08 1oo.os | 0.08 | as.se__ | 0 100.08 100.0% pec___|__0.08 100.0% zIoO <j telle 3-10 ze AL Non-Mining Forecast Case: Mid Commerical, Commun. Facil., Non-Mining Totals and Street Lighting Use per Total Useper Total | T&D T&D Net Load Peak People/ Custome Indoor Employee Sales | Losses Losses Generat. Factor Generat. kWh Em kWh MWh %o MWh MWh % MW I 922 3.30 5,463 5,037 S 1982] 3,071 1,060 2.90 5,588 5,923 1,190 8,398 9,997 18% 1,347 17,266 = $6.3% 3.50 T 1983} 3,102 1,244 2.49 5,366 6,676 1,252 8,493 10,630 | 6.1% 1,124 18,430 = 58.4% 3.60 O 1984] 3,146 1,294 2.43 5,459 7,065 1,258 8,922 11,222 | 68% 1,334 19,621 58.9% 3.80 R_ 1985} 3,236 1,290 2.51 5,394 6,957 1,254 9,454 11,851 | 13.1% 2,833 21,642 61.7% 4.00 I 1986] 3,208 1,280 2.51 5,640 7,219 1,297 10,002 12,969 | 8.2% 1,791 21,979 64.3% 3.90 C 1987 }} 3,306 1,331 2.48 5,844 7,778 1,204 10,554 12,703 5.8% 1,259 21,740 = 61.2% 4.05 A 1988} 3,403 1,344 2.53 6,015 8,084 1,265 9,673 12,238 | 7.1% 1,544 21,866 54.7% 4.56 L__ 1989] 3,499 1,365 2.56 5,812 7,934 1,328 10,326 13,715 | 6.6% 1,540 23,189 63.0% 4.20 1990 }} 3,544 1,386 2.56 5,801 8,041 1,309 10,336 = 13,530 | 6.5% 1,499 23,070 60.0% 4.39 1991 | 3,530 1,384 2.55 5,789 8,011 1,310 10,346 13,556 | 6.5% 1,498 23,066 60.0% 4.39 1992} 3,515 1,382 2.54 5,778 7,983 1,286 10,357 13,323 | 6.5% 1,480 22,786 60.0% 4.33 1993} 3,535 1,393 2.54 5,766 8,031 1,291 10,367 13,386 | 6.5% 1,488 = 22,905 60.0% 4.35 1994} 3,578 1,414 2.53 5,755 8,134 1,306 10,377 13,549 | 6.5% 1,507 23,190 60.0% 441 1995 | 3,696 1,464 2.53 5,743 8,406 1,340 10,388 13,924 | 6.5% 1,552 23,882 60.0% 4.54 1996 | 3,811 1,513 2.52 5,732 8,671 1,378 10,398 14,323 | 6.5% 1,598 24,592 60.0% 4.68 P 1997] 3,910 1,556 2.51 5,720 8,901 1,407 10,409 14,641 | 6.5% 1,636 =. 25,178 60.0% 4.79 R 1998} 3,999 1,596 2.51 5,709 9,109 1,431 10,419 14,911 | 6.5% 1,669 = 25,689 60.0% 4.88 O 1999} 4,081 1,632 2.50 5,697 9,301 1,453 10,429 15,150 | 6.5% 1,699 26,150 60.0% 4.97 J 2000] 4,164 1,670 2.49 5,686 9,495 1,475 10,440 15,394 6.5% 1,729 26,619 60.0% 5.06 E 2001} 4,210 1,693 2.49 5,674 9,604 1,465 10,450 15,305 6.5% 1,731 26,640 60.0% 5.07 C 2002} 4,262 1,718 2.48 5663 9,728 1,472 10,461 15,396 | 6.5% 1,746 26,868 60.0% 5.11 T 2003} 4,320 1,745 2.48 5,652 9,865 1,483 10,471 15,527 6.5% 1,764 27,155 60.0% 5.16 E 2004} 4,392 1,779 2.47 5,641 10,035 1,504 10,482 15,765 6.5% 1,793 27,593 60.0% 5.25 D 2005} 4,479 1,819 2.46 5,629 10,239 1,530 10,492 16,053 6.5% 1,827 28,119 = 60.0% 5.35 2006 |} 4,593 1,870 2.46 5,618 10,504 1,564 10,503 16,429 | 6.5% 1,871 28,803 60.0% 5.48 2007 | 4,716 1,925 2.45 5,607 10,790 1,601 10,513 16,835 | 65% 1,919 29,545 60.0% 5.62 2008 |} 4,846 1,983 2.44 5,596 11,094 1,641 10,524 17,270 | 6.5% 1,971 30,334 60.0% Sr 2009 | 4,935 2,024 2.44 5,584 11,303 1,659 10,534 17,472 | 65% 1,999 30,775 60.0% 5.85 2010 }} 5,009 2,060 2.43 5,573 11,478 1,662 10,545 17,521 6.5% 2,015 31,014 60.0% 5.90 2011} 5,102 2,103 2.43 5,562 11,698 1,682 10,555 17,750 | 6.5% 2,046 31,494 60.0% 5.99 2012} 5,197 2,148 2.42 5,551 11,922 1,702 10,566 17,981 6.5% 2,078 31,980 60.0% 6.08 2013 | 5,294 2,193 2.41 5,540 12,150 1,722 10,576 = 18,215 | 6.5% 2,110 32,475 60.0% 6.17 2014 | 5,393 2,240 2.41 5,529 12,383 1,743 10,587_18,453 | 6.5% 2,142 32,978 60.0% 6.27 1989 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates: 1.7% 2.0% 0.25% __-0.20% 18% 1.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 1.3% 14% 0.2% 1.6% eyeL PMael Mining Forecast and Totals Case: Mid Onshore Gold, Summer Only Onshore Gold, Year-Round Offshore Gold, Shore Elect. Req’t T Mining Total ]Mining + Non-Mining 1 Total | Gold Total Net Peak Gold Total Net Peak Gold Onshore Net Peak Net Peak Net Peak Mined Use Generat. Generat.| Mined Use Generat. Generat.|_ Mined Use Generat. Generat.|} Generat. Generat.|) Generat. General. Year |} 00002 —= MWh MWh MW_| 00002 =>MWh MWh MW_| ,0000z -MWh MWh MW_ || MWh MW MWh MW = JL = = —— Se te = = == — I 1981 16.6 7,470 7,989 3.14 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 oe 7,989 3.14 23,676 6.06 S 1982} 18.5 8,325 8,904 3.50 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 8,904 3.50 26,170 6.72 T 1983} 20.5 9,225 9,866 3.88 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 9,866 3.88 28,296 7.19 O 1984 | 21.5 9,675 10,348 4.07 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 |} 10,348 4.07 29,969 7.56 R 1985} 22.4 10,080 10,781 4.24 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 10,781 4.24 32,422 791 I 1986} 25.7 11,565 12,369 4.87 0.0 0 0 0.00 3.0 0 0 0.00 12,369 4.87 34,348 8.45 C 1987 39.1 17,595 18,818 7.40 0.0 0 0 0.00 36.7 2,350 2,513 1.41 | 21,332 7.40 43,072 11.12 A 1988] 30.5 13,725 14,679 5.77 0.0 0 0 0.00 35.5 2,350 2,513 141 17,193 5.77 39,058 9.96 L_1989 | 28.8 12,960 _ 13,861 5.45 0.0 0 0 0.00 30.7 2,337 2,499 1.41 16,360 5.45__l|__ 39,549 9.31 1990} = 25.0 11,250 = 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 24.1 2,373 2,538 141 1 14,570 4.73 37,640 8.76 1991} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 12,032 4.73 35,098 8.76 1992] 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 12,032 4.73 34,818 8.71 1993 |} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 12,032 4.73 34,937 8.73 1994] 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 | 12,032 4.73 35,222 8.78 1995} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 37,005 8.90 1996} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 37,715 9.03 P 19979 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 057 |} 13,123 4.73 38,301 9.13 R 1998] 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 38,812 9.22 O 1999} 25.0 11,250 = 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 39,273 9.30 J 2000} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 39,742 9.38 E 2001] 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 39,763 9.38 C 2002} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 39,991 9.42 T 2003} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 40,278 9.47 E 2004] 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 40,716 9.55 D 2005} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 41,242 9.64 2006 }} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 41,926 9.76 2007 | 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 42,668 9.89 2008 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 43,457 10.03 2009} = 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 43,898 10.10 2010 | = 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 44,137 10.15 2011} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 44,617 10.23 2012} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 45,103 10.31 2013} 25.0 11,250 =: 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 45,598 10.40 2014 |] 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 13,123 4.73 46,101 10.49 1989 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates: 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% _—-0.6% -2.3% __-3.3% 3.3% _—-3.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% SN ed ea Non-Mining Forecast Case: Low Commerical, Commun. Facil., Non-Mining Totals and Street Lighting Use per Total Useper Total | T&D T&D Net Load Peak People/ Custome Sales | Indoor Employee Sales | Losses Losses Generat. Factor Generat. Popul. Customers Cust kWh MWh s__ kWh MWh % MWh MWh 5,463 5,037 1,123 8,338 9,364 8.2% 1,286 15,687 56.3% 3.18 5,588 5,923 1,190 8,398 9,997 18% 1,347 17,266 56.3% 3.50 5,366 6,676 1,252 8,493 10,630 | 6.1% 1,124 18,430 58.4% 3.60 5,459 7,065 1,258 8,922 11,222 | 68% 1,334 19,621 58.9% 3.80 5,394 6,957 1,254 9,454 11,851 | 13.1% 2,833 21,642 61.7% 4.00 5,640 7,219 1,297 10,002 12,969 | 8.2% 1,791 21,979 64.3% 3.90 5,844 7,778 1,204 10,554 12,703 | 5.8% 1,259 21,740 = 61.2% 4.05 6,015 8,084 1,265 9,673 12,238 | 7.1% 1,544 21,866 54.7% 4.56 5,812 7,934 1,328 10,326 13,715 | 6.6% 1,540 23,189 63.0% 4.20 5,786 8,011 1,306 10,305 13,454 | 6.5% 1,491 22,956 60.0% 4.36 5,760 7,741 1,227 10,284 = 12,618 | 6.5% 1,415 21,773 60.0% 4.14 5,734 7,582 1,208 10,264 12,403 | 6.5% 1,389 21,373 60.0% 4.06 5,709 7,654 1,250 10,243 12,809 | 6.5% 1,422 21,885 60.0% 4.16 5,683 7,797 1,279 10,223. 13,075 | 6.5% 1,450 22,322 + 60.0% 4.24 5,657 7,973 1,304 10,202 13,307 | 6.5% 1,479 22,759 60.0% 4.33 5,632 8,085 1,311 10,182 = 13,345 | 6.5% 1,489 22,919 60.0% 4.36 5,606 = 8,172 1,311 10,162 13,318 | 65% 1,493 22,984 60.0% 4.37 5,581 8,296 1,331 10,141 = 13,499 | 6.5% 1,514 23,309 60.0% 4.43 5,556 8,431 1,349 10,121 = 13,649 | 6.5% 1,534 23,614 60.0% 4.49 5,531 8,610 1,375 10,101 13,888 | 6.5% 1,563 24,062 60.0% 4.57 5,506 8,711 1,371 10,081 13,816 | 6.5% 1,565 24,092 60.0% 4.58 5,481 8,823 1,382 10,060 = 13,904 | 6.5% 1,579 24,306 = 60.0% 4.62 5,457 8,948 1,396 10,040 = 14,018 | 6.5% 1,596 24,561 60.0% 4.67 5,432 - 9,096 1,418 10,020 14,210 | 6.5% 1,619 24,925 60.0% 4.74 5,408 9,240 1,432 10,000 = 14,317 | 6.5% 1,637 25,194 60.0% 4.79 5,383 9,393 1,451 9,980 14,478 | 6.5% 1,659 25,530 60.0% 4.85 Saae 9/554 1,470 9,960 14,645 | 6.5% 1,681 25,880 60.0% 4.92 5,335 9,704 1,482 9,940 14,733 | 6.5% 1,698 26,135 60.0% 4.97 5,311 9,839 1,488 9,920 14,762 | 6.5% 1,709 26,309 60.0% 5.00 5,287 9,975 1,499 9,901 14,841 | 65% 1,724 26,541 60.0% 5.05 5,263 10,123 1,512 9,881 14,940 | 6.5% 1,741 26,804 60.0% 5.10 5,240 10,273 1,525 9,861 15,040 | 6.5% 1,759 27,071 60.0% 5.15 5,216 10,425 1,538 9,841 15,140 | 6.5% 1,776 27,341 60.0% 5.20 5,193 10,580 1,552 9,822 15,241 6.5% 1,794 27,614 60.0% 28 =| 1989 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates: 14% 1.6% 0.25% 0.45% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% OmHOaOMH+ORnRV sve Mining Forecast and Totals Case: Low Onshore Gold, Summer Only Onshore Gold, Year-Round Offshore Gold, Shore Elect. Req’t Mining Total [Mining + Non-Mining Total Gold Total Net Peak Gold Total Net Peak Gold Onshore Net Peak Net Peak Net Peak Mined Use Generat. Generat.| Mined Use Generat. Generat.} Mined Use Generat. Generat.}} Generat. Generat.} Generat. Generat. ,0000z_ —_MWh MWh MW_| ,0000z_ _MWh MWh __ MW 0000z _MWh MWh MW_||_MWh MW | MWh MW 3.14 4 0 0 . 0.0 0 0 0.00 7,989 3.14 23,676 6.06 18.5 8,325 8,904 3.50 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 8,904 3.50 26,170 6.72 20.5 9,225 9,866 3.88 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 9,866 3.88 28,296 TAd 215 9,675 10,348 4.07 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 10,348 4.07 29,969 7.56 22.4 10,080 10,781 4.24 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 10,781 4.24 32,422 791 25.7 11,565 12,369 4.87 0.0 0 0 0.00 3.0 0 0 0.00 12,369 4.87 34,348 8.45 39.1 17,595 18,818 7.40 0.0 0 0 0.00 36.7 2,350 2,513 1.41 21,332 7.40 43,072 11.12 30.5 13,725 14,679 5.77 0.0 0 0 0.00 35.5 2,350 2,513 141 17,193 5.77 39,058 9.96 28.8 12,960 __ 13,861 5.45 0.0 0 0 0.00 30.7 2,337 2,499 1.41 16,360 5.45 39,549 9.31 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 24.1 2,373 2,538 14,570 4.73 37,526 8.74 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 12,032 4.73 33,805 8.53 12.0 5,400 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 S57 2.27 27,148 6.00 12.0 5,400 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 27,660 6.09 12.0 5,400 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 28,098 6.17 12.0 5,400 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 28,534 6.24 12.0 5,400 a5 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,78 2.27 28,694 6.27 P 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 28,759 6.28 R 9,778 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 29,084 6.34 oO 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 29,389 6.39 Jj 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5975 2.27 29,837 6.47 EB 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 29,868 6.48 c 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 S775 2.27 30,081 6.51 T 5715 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 30,337 6.56 E 3,775. 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 30,701 6.62 D 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 30,969 6.67 2006 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 31,305 6.73 2007 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 31,655 6.79 2008 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 31,910 6.83 2009 S70 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 32,085 6.86 2010 5,11 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 32,316 6.90 2011 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 32,580 6.95 2012 5,798 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 32,847 7.00 2013 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5377S 2.27 33,117 7.04 2014 5,775 2.27 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 5,775 2.27 33,390 7.09 1989 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates: 3.4% __-3.4% _-3.4%__—-3.4% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% _-4.1% 3.4% 0.71% 1.1% gre MAL Non-Mining Forecast Case: High Residential (Commerical, Commun. Facil, Non-Mining Totals iil and Street Lighting Use per Total Useper Total | T&D T&D Net Load Peak People/ Custome Indoor Employee Sales | Losses Losses Generat. Factor Generat. Popul. Customers Cust kWh Em kWh MWh % MWh MWh % MW I 3.30 a S 1982} 3,071 1,060 2.90 5,588 5,923 1,190 8,398 9,997 18% 1,347 17,266 56.3% 3.50 T 1983} 3,102 1,244 2.49 5,366 6,676 1,252 8,493 10,630 | 6.1% 1,124 18,430 58.4% 3.60 O 1984] 3,146 1,294 2.43 5,459 7,065 1,258 8,922 11,222 | 6.8% 1,334 19,621 58.9% 3.80 R 1985} 3,236 1,290 2.51 5,394 6,957 1,254 9,454 11,851 | 13.1% 2,833 21,642 61.7% 4.00 I 1986} 3,208 1,280 2.51 5,640 7,219 1,297 10,002 12,969 | 8.2% 1,791 21,979 64.3% 3.90 C 1987} 3,306 1,331 2.48 5,844 7,778 1,204 10,554 12,703 5.8% 1,259 21,740 61.2% 4.05 A 1988 1,344 2.53 6,015 12,238 | 7.1% 1,544 21,866 = 54.7% 4.56 L_ 1989 1,365 2.56 5,812 10,326 13,715 6.6% 1,540 23,189 63.0% 4.20 1990} 3,629 1,419 2.56 5,822 8,262 14,269 | 6.5% 1,566 24,097 60.0% 4.58 1991} 3,640 1,427 2.55 5,831 8,322 1,372 10,533. 14,452 | 6.5% 1,582 24,356 = 60.0% 4.63 1992 | 3,793 1,491 2.54 5,840 8,706 1,385 10,638 14,733 6.5% 1,629 25,068 60.0% 4.77 1993} 3,913 1,542 2.54 5,850 9,018 1,409 10,745 15,142 6.5% 1,679 25,839 60.0% 491 1994 ]| 3,966 1,567 2.53 5,859 9,179 1,413 10,852 15,336 6.5% 1,703 26,219 60.0% 4.98 1995} 4,000 1,584 253 5,868 9,295 1,406 10,961 15,407 6.5% 1,716 26,419 60.0% 5.02 1996 |} 4,028 1,599 252 5,878 9,400 1,400 11,070 = 15,502 | 6.5% 1,730 26,632 60.0% 5.06 P 1997} 4,059 1,615 2.51 5,887 9,511 1,407 11,181 15,733 | 6.5% 1,754 26,998 60.0% 5.13 R 1998} 4,090 1,632 2.51 5,897 9,622 1,414 11,293 15,967 6.5% 1,778 27,367 60.0% 5.20 O 1999] 4,317 1,727 2.50 5,906 10,198 1,491 11,406 17,002 6.5% 1,890 29,090 60.0% 5.53 J 2000} 4,466 1,791 2.49 5,916 10,595 1,537 11,520 17,709 6.5% 1,967 30,270 60.0% 5.76 E 2001} 4,570 1,837 2.49 5,925 10,884 1,565 11,635 18,207 6.5% 2,021 31,112 60.0% 5.92 C 2002] 4,634 1,868 2.48 5,935 11,084 1,569 11,752 18,441 6.5% 2,051 31,577 60.0% 6.00 T 2003} 4,703 1,900 2.48 5,944 11,293 1,583 11,869 18,785 6.5% 2,090 32,168 60.0% 6.12 E 2004] 4,813 1,949 2.47 5,954 11,605 1,621 11,988 19,438 6.5% 2,157 33,200 60.0% 6.31 D 2005} 4,940 2,006 2.46 $963. “FiSet 1,661 12,108 20,112 6.5% 2,228 34,301 60.0% 6.52 2006 || 5,097 2,075 2.46 5973 12,392 1,714 12,229 20,960 | 6.5% 2,317 35,669 60.0% 6.78 2007 | 5,272 2,152 2.45 5,982 12,871 1,774 12,351 21,909 | 65% 2,417 37,197 60.0% 7.07 2008 || 5,461 2,234 2.44 5,992 13,387 1,839 12,474 22,939 6.5% 2,524 38,850 60.0% 133 2009} 5,581 2,289 2.44 6,001 13,738 1,869 12,599 23,547 | 65% 2,591 39,875 60.0% 758 2010 }} 5,670 2,331 2.43 6011 14,014 1,883 12,725 23,957 | 65% 2,638 40,608 60.0% 7.72 2011} 5,807 2,394 2.43 6,021 14,411 1,921 12,852 24,692 6.5% 2,717 41,820 60.0% 7.95 2012 5,947 2,458 2.42 6,030 14,820 1,960 12,981 25,449 6.5% 2,798 43,067 60.0% 8.19 2013 |} 6,091 2,523 2.41 6,040 = 15,240 2,001 13,111 26,230 6.5% 2,881 44,351 60.0% 8.43 2014 |] 6,238 2,591 2.41 6,049 15,672 | __ 2,042 13,242 27,035 | 6.5% _2,967__—«45,674 (60.0% 8.68 1989 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates: 2.3% 2.6% 0.25% 0.16% 28% 1.7% 1.0% 2.8% 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 0.2% 2.9% Lee Aare Mining Forecast and Totals Case: High [ ] Onshore Gold, Summer Only Onshore Gold, Year-Round Offshore Gold, Shore Elect. Req’t | Mining Total ]Mining + Non-Mining Total Gold Total Net Peak Gold Total Net Peak Gold Onshore Net Peak Net Peak Net Peak || Mined Use Generat. Generat.} Mined Use Generat. Generat.) Mined Use Generat. Generat./ Generat. Generat.|} Generat. Generat. be Year ,0000z MWh MWh MW_| ,0000z —_MWh MWh MW_| ,0000z —~-MWh__ MWh MW_||_MWh MW MWh MW I 1981 16.6 7,470 7,989 3.14 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 7,989 3.14 23,676 6.06 S 1982} 185 8,325 8,904 3.50 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 8,904 3.50 26,170 6.72 T 1983} 20.5 9,225 9,866 3.88 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 | 9,866 3.88 28,296 719 O 1984] 21.5 9,675 10,348 4.07 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 10,348 4.07 29,969 7.56 R_ 1985 22.4 10,080 10,781 4.24 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 10,781 4.24 32,422 7.91 I 1986} 25.7 11,565 12,369 4.87 0.0 0 0 0.00 3.0 0 0 0.00 | 12,369 4.87 34,348 8.45 C 1987} 39.1 17,595 18,818 7.40 0.0 0 0 0.00 36.7 2,350 2,513 1.41 21,332 7.40 43,072 11.12 A 1988} 30.5 13,725 14,679 Sa 0.0 0 0 0.00 35:0) 2,350 2,513 141 17,193 CH 39,058 9.96 L_1989 || 28.8 12,960 __ 13,861 5.45 0.0 0 0 0.00_| 30.7 2,337 2,499 141 16,360 5.45 39,549 9.31 1990 |} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 24.1 23373 2,538 1.41 14,570 4.73 38,667 8.94 1991} 25.0 11,250 12,032 4.73 0.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 0 0.00 12,032 4.73 36,388 8.98 1992] 32.0 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 17.0 1,020 1,091 0.57 28,684 7.80 53,753 12.17 1993} 32.0 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 aS 29,775 7.80 55,614 12.31 1994} 32.0 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 55.994 12.37 1995} 32.0 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 56.194 12.41 1996} 32.0 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2.040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 56,408 12.45 P 1997} 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 56,773 12.51 R 1998 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 57,143 12.57 O 1999 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1:13 29,775 7.80 58,866 12.87 J 2000 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 113 29,775 7.80 60,046 13.08 E 2001 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 60,888 13.23 C 2002 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 61,352 13.31 T 2003 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 61,944 13.41 E 2004 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 62,975 13.59 D_ 2005 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 64,076 13.78 2006 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.33 29,775 7.80 65,445, 14.02 2007 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 66,972 14.29 2008 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 113 29,775 7.80 68,625 14.58 2009 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 = 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 69,651 14.76 2010 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 70,384 14.88 2011 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 71,595 15.10 2012 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1-13 29,775 7.80 72,842 15.31 2013 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 = 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 1.13 29,775 7.80 74,127 15.54 2014 |} 32.0 14,400 15,401 6.06 30.0 11,400 12,193 1.74 34.0 2,040 2,182 rls 29,775 7.80 75,450 15.77 [1989 - 2014 Annual Average Growth Rates: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% __-0.5% _ _-0.9% 2.4% 1.4% 2.6% 2.1% Employees § Nome Indoor Employment 2,500 2,000- a a So 2 S SS ee 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year —®— Historical —— Mid —— Low —= High People Nome Population 7,000 6,000- 5,000- 4,000- Toar"?y rr’ ee ee Te ee eee ee 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year —® Historical —— Mid —— Low === JBigh Fi gwe AOL People/Customer People per Residential Customer Nome 3.5 34 2.57 2) -3.1% / year 1.57 14 0.55 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Year F As TT 3% -3S kWh/year Use per Residential Customer 10,000 9,000+ 8,000- 7,0005 6,0007 5,0007 =F Er —+— 1.1% / year ms -2.4% / year 0.8% / year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Year —=- Nome —— US —— Alaska = ene 3 * Income per Nome Residential Customer Inflation-Adjusted 70 607 Wig Le NL 507 -2.2% / year 407 307 (Thousands) 20> 1989 $ per Customer 107 O'7981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Year Froure 3S Cents/kWh, 1989 $ 30 25 20 15 10 Nome Residential Electric Rates Inflation-Adjusted -6.7% / year -8.5% / year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Year —=— Total Rate —— Subsidized Rate Caw 2336 Fequce million kWh/year Nome Residential Sales 2+ Ot 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year —=— Historical —— Mid —— Low —=- High France S27 kWh/year (Thousands) Use per Commercial Employee 12 107 UEPIPAPRG Cae eer eer a x 84 ——— oot Growth Rates: Nome, 1981-89, 2.7% / yr US, 1982-88, 1.6% / yr Alaska, 1983-89, 3.1% / yr 03981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Year —=—- Nome —— US —— Alaska F a $8 million kWh/year Nome Commercial/Other Sales 30 255 207 154 105 54 04 1 ers se Tee es ee T 2 ee ey Ts 1 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year —=— Historical —~— Mid —— Low —=—_ High Ferg ure 29 million KWh/year Non-Mining Net Generation 507 454 404 35+ 304 254 204 —— 154 104 54 0 — ee 1981 1986 1991 —#-— Historical —— Mid eS rete Tre eee ee nt ee et eee 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year — Low —=- High eveuce 3. \O Load Factor Non-Mining Load Factor Nome 70% 60% | ee ee 5 50% + 40% 30% + 20% + 10%- 0% T T bi aa T T T T tt T 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Year Pr guce 3.)\ Thousands of Ounces / Year Nome District Gold Production 300 2507 200- 1507 100- 507 fao7 1907 1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 Year Pregwee Sle Price, 1989 $/troy oz. $800 $7007 $6007 $500, $400- $300; $200+ $1007 US Wholesale Gold Price Inflation-Adjusted 90-—— FL 7 T mae a 7 ors 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 8.5% / year Year Nome District Gold Production 1989 Windfall Mining 5,450 oz. Alaska Gold Company 21,000 oz. WestGold, Bima 30,660 oz. Fra we sa. I4 Thousands of Ounces / Year Nome Gold Forecast 407 307 20+ 107 RSS SSS SS SS SSS SSS SS SS SE] Tt. . 0— 1981 1986 1991 —#®-— Historical —— Mid Figuce Sis \S million KWh/year Mining Net Generation 407 354 304 25} 20; 13+ 104 54 Tt 1981 1986 1991 —#-— Historical —— Mid ret eer eT ee 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year —— Low —- High Feguee Sac million kWh/year Total Net Generation 807 70+ 107 04-0 OT Tot 1981 1986 1991 —=— Historical —— Mid rrr te eet 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year —— Low —=-. High Frguce eons Megawatts Total Peak Generation Cet ee ee oe ee oe a oh 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year —=®- Historical —— Mid —— Low —= High Frowe 3.18 Total Net Generation id Case