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HomeMy WebLinkAboutElectric Power System Development For National And Regional Needs 19732. CASH REQUIREMENTS Construction: Program in Execution IDB Project Other Construction Debt Service (Interest and Amortization) Loans Outstanding IDB Loans Other Loans Other Cash Obligations: (Increase in Working Capital, etc.) Total Cash Requirements 3. ANNUAL SURPLUS (1 less 2) 4. ACCUMULATED SURPLUS 9. UTILIZATION OF LOAN In conformance with the Investment Budget and Financial Plan (Section 6), tne loan applicant shall submit a suitably classified list of goods and services showing the different types of equipment, materials, con- tractor services, consultant services, and other itues which it proposes to acquire with proceeds from the loan requested. Purchases or services payable in foreign currency and national currency should be listed seperately, according to the Financial Plan submitted. -21- Should an examination of the results obtained in previous years show that the amount of income is less than the amount billed, and there is no adequate reserve for bad debts, the actual return on the investment may be far less than what the projections show. This possibility must be taken into account by the applicant agency, Ser Tie in preparing the financial forecasts. 8.3 Financial Forecast The level of profitability may be considered adequate, provided that within the allowable tariff base usually established by law in the borrower country, it can be shown that annual cash surpluses from opera- tion of the electrical utility will enable the company applying for the loan to service its debts, pay dividends to its shareholders (if appli- cable), provide for increases in working capital, satisfy other financial obligations related to electrical utility operations, and leave a margin for investment in ordinary expansions to the system as required by anti- cipated growth, as well as a reserve for contingencies. During the construction period, the available cash resources, with indications as to their origin, should be sufficient to meet all obligations scheduled for payment in each yeer (investment and debt service), with an adequate margin of safety. The Cash and Financial Budget Projection for the same period comprising the projected results of operations, including the project construction period, should be prepared in accordance with the following general format: ; , . 19.. _19.. _(19.. ete. (In thousands of US Dollars) 1. CASE AVATLABLE Surplus from Operation: Net Income Provision for Depreciation Loan Disbursements: Loans outstanding (show details) IDB Loan (invested in project) (Other loans (invested in project) Capital Allotments (show details) Other Cash Resources Totel Cash Availacle 19.. 19.. 19. ete. in thousands of US Dollars Gross Fixed Assets (Plant in Service) at the beginning of the year Net additions during the yeer 1/ Gross Fixed Assets - end of the year Accumulated Depreciation - beginnings of the year Annual Reserve for Depreciation Actumulated Depreciation '- end of year Net Fixed Assets - end of the year, Net Fixed Assets - average for the year Fe ve Working Capital - average for the year ° Total Net Utility Investment (basis for determining the annual return) 1/ Replacement less retirements. Investment in Gross Fixed Assets in the first year, stated in terms equivalent to US dollars, shall be determined by the cost of capitel goods ‘n service as shown in the utility company's accounts, adjusted or revaluated as of the date of the loan application to account for price variations caused by currency devaluation. There should be an explanation of the procedure used for revaluating (writing-up), including the actual calculations. Working capital shall be comprised by a reasonable amount of financial resources allocated by the utility enterprise for operating the power system (an adequate stock of materials on hand and sufficient cash to meet current expenses during the revenue cycle). The Net Operating Revenues (as shown in the Table in Section §.1) compared to the Net Utility Investment will give the return on the net utility investment for each year shown in the projection. = 19 - 5 ‘ear idee ie 22-- 19-2, et Q DATA ON OP=RATIONS Installed Generating Capacity - MW 1/ - Hydraulic - Steam - Internal. Combustion Production of Energy in Millions of KWH - Hydraulic Generation s- Steam Generation - Internal Combustion Generation - Energy Purchases Annual Load Factor - % Meximum Demané on System in MW Number of Consumers in Thousands (by principal categories) Annual Consumption in Millions of KWH (by principal categories) Average Revenue per KWH sold in US cents (by principal categories) RESULTS OF OPERATIONS - in thousands of US dollars 1. Operating Revenues Energy Sales Other Operating. Revenues © Total Operating Revenues 2. Operating Expenses Generation - Hydro - Operations and Maintenance y Nameplate rating, (show the erfective capacity available at the time of maximum demands in parenthesis) . end { -18- , Most projects incorporate the newly constructed facilities (generation, transmission and/or distribution) into an existing sys- tem. In such cases the projection of operating revenues and expenses should be made comprising the whole system. When a project has a well- defined service area - as to market and sources of supply - anda limited geographic service area within a much lerger power system, it shall be necessary also to show the projected operating revenues and expenses for that portion of the whole system affected by the project, treating that portion as an independent local systen. The forecast of operating results should cover a period of not less than 10 years from the date of application for the loan, and therefore would include the period of project construction. The format for projecting the results. of operations should conform to the general outline ~hich follows on the next page. In estimating income from energy sales, the proposed average revenues per KWH sold should be justified based on the rate schedules in effect, or on such rate schedules as will apply during the period covered by the projection. Ifa substantial portion of the energy produced is to be sold to major industrial consumers or. to other electrical utility com- panies, the respective sales agreement should be attached, showing all firm commitments of Seiten and energy, rates and general conditions governing supply. g ‘ If it is planned to purchase a significant portion of the energy required by the system from other utility companies, the estimated expenses for Energy Purchases should be justified, based on an appropriate agreement for wholesale supply. If thermal generation is planned, the expense for fuel should be shown separately with an attached explanation of the type of fuel used, the specific fuel consumption for each KWH of net generation, and the unit cost (per kilogram, ton, or million calories). Interest on.debts outstanding should not be included in operating expenses, considering that profitability will be computed on the net utility investment. : 8.2 Net Utility Investment and Return In — to detemiine the annual return on the electrical systen, it is necessary to first determine the amount of net utilitrinvestment in Plant and facilities installed to supply energy. For this purpose a projec- tion should te prepared showing the following information for each year of the period under consideration. _/ = 17 As a supplement to the preceding table, a forecast of available resources should be provided, based on the proposed financial plan and on the annual investment requirements until the project is completed, as follows: _ Initial Investments through .... se 19) 195% (In thousands of US dollars) Total Investments (From above schedule) w Financial Resources - IDB loan - Other loans : nee (by each source) - Other funds / — ' (by each source} : Total Funds 8. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY 8.1 Results of Operations - Projected .e? Separately from the technical and economic justification for the alternative selected as to central generating plant (hydroelectric; thermal or other variants), it will be necessary to show that once the Project is operating, the revenues from operations will enable the borrower to cover all operating expenses, including administration, depreciation and taxes (if assessed on the company), and yield a surplus or "Net Revenue from Operations" which provides an adequate rate of return on the net utility investment in the electrical utility. Direct Costs - Construction General Expenses and Contingencies Total Construction Cost Expenses during Constyuction - Yotul Finance Expenses Tolal Investments ‘Initial « Investments y 19...-. 19..... 19...c0 Currency Currency Currency Currency Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic (In thousands of US Dollars) 1/ To the estimated date of the loan. er - 15 - In order to estimate interest and other expenses of proposed loans, an estimate should be made of the time schedules for Gieburcement. (see Table in Section 7). The applicant should specifically recommend general terms for the IDB loan which he considers adequate for the project execution. These should be utilized in the financial projection covered in Section 8.3. If the applicant proposes to secure other loans, in addition to the loan requested from the IDB, indicate the source, terms and conditions for Siceech Sines such loans (interest, amortization tezm, grace period, etc.). The applicant must show the composition of the investment capital - which presumably will be of domestic origin.- in terms of source (operating surplus of the company, allotments from the government, other agencies, or private shareholders, etc.). If the applicant agency has already made or is presently making in- vestments in the project, it should show the amounts invested as of the date of the loan application, and those which it expects to make up to the date when IDB loan may be granted, showing the sources of funds. 7. PROGRAM FOR INVESTMENT AND DISBURSEMENT OF FUNDS P e The program of investments required should be developed in accordance with the .time schedule of project execution (see Section 4.7), showing the sums in foreign and local currency for each calendar year. The total investment should be itemized using the same classifications shown in the Table in Section 6, as follows: : Sie Financial Resources Investment . . Other Re- Required IDB loan +.. loan sources ly FC Lc Total FC Lc FC LC FC LC (In thousands of US Dollars) 1. Direct Cost of Installed Project Total Direct Cost 2. General Exnenses and Continzencies Engineering & technical supervision Administration General Contingencies IDB loan (interest, commitment fee, etc.) Other loans Total Finance Expenses TOTAL: Investments and Resourses Tdentify ezch source in separate columns. — 5 = Wc The term "indirect component in foreign currency" is defined as the cost of all inported raw materials or semi-processed materials required for the manufacture in the Project's country of equipment materials or supplies for the project. (For example: aluminum and copper bars; silicon steel; sheet steel for fabrication of pipes, gates and other structures; insulation material; and other elements which form part of equipment manufactured in the country.) Another indirect comporent may te the partial depreciation of construction machinery which may be used for other coustruction projects upon completion of the subject Project. All other expenses related to project execution shall constitute the component in local currency. 6. INVESTMENT BUDGET AND FINANCIAL PLAN > In order to determine the funds needed for project execution, subtract from the total cost shown in Section 5, the amount of interest and finance expenses not due for payment during construction and that do not therefore represent a need for funds during the construction period. : gre” In formulating the Financial Plan indicate for each item the total investment required; type of funds required, either local or foreign currency; and the -source of the funds. The usual sources of funds are: loans from the IDB; or IBRD; other loans from external or domestic sources; credit from suppliers; the agencies' own funds; new capital provided by sale of stock, governmental appropriations, etc. A summary outline of the financial plan would be as follows: Esons The Engineering and Technical Supervision item should include the costs for: preliminery surveys and studies; development of designs, specifications and bidding documents; examination of proposals; inspection at the Sectacians Supervision and technical management of construction; tests on materials; preparation of estimates for work installed; start-up costs for acceptance of facilities installed; and in general, all studies and design changes or variants which may be required during construction. The item of Administration comprises the cost of all administrative services required for project execution,. including a proportion of the Central Administration expenses (if the company has other construction activities and/or operations) and ell other general expense items allocable to the Project. In the special case of capital projects for thermal-electric central stations consideration must be given ‘to the initial investment that the corporation must make in building an adequate stock of fuel. This item should be shown separately es an "Associated Cost" of the Project (spe- cial increase in the Working Capital). For budget estimating purposes the term "costs in foreign currency” is defined as the estimated cost of all ‘supplies and services that the country will have to import for execution of the project, irrespective of the currency which the executing agency will pay its suppliers and contractors. , = The cost item in foreign currency for each part of the Project must separately show the "direct component" and the "indirect component”. {This breakdown is not shown in ae foregoing table in order to wimplisy this presentation). The term “direct component in foreign currency" is defined as the cost of all imported materials and equipment incorporated directly into the work, that is, they shall not require further processing or modifica- tion in the project before their installation. (For example: energy- generating groups; transformers; gates; valves; pipes or pipe’ sections to be assembled on the site; completely assembled towers and transmission structures, or unassembled structures; cables; insulators; cement and structural steel.) Imported facilities and construction. equipment may ce included provided they will be fully depreciated during construction or will have no further use upon completion of construction. Also to be included in the "direct component” is that portion of the cost in foreign currency of all services rendered by contractors, erectors, consultants, and experts from abrcad who are engaged for study and execution of the Project and paid in eonetsm currency. Interest charges and other exter finencing expenses 1 2 currency also constitute a direcs component in foreign currence; nal Estimated Cost (date) Foreign Local Item Currency Currency Total (In thousands of US Dollars) Direct Cost of Construction Hydroelectric Generating Central Station Therral-electric Generating Central Station Transmission and Sub-transmission system Distribution system General Facilities installations Totel Direct Cost . General Expenses Engineering and technical supervision Administration General contingencies Total General Expenses Total Cost of Construction Interest and Financial Charges during Construction Total Estimated Cost of the Project Each item under Direct Cost of Construction in the Summary shown above should be supported by a detailed estimate of the respective components, showing (if applicable) the volume or quantity of construction items, unit prices and total cost of the item divided between foreign currency and local currency requirement. 7 : In civil construction involving major quantities of excavation, earth movement, concrete structures, etc., a supporting analysis should be given of each unit price shown. For construction of transmission lines this requirement will be satisfied by providing a detailed breakdown of th cost per kilometer. For imported equipment the cost estimate should te supported by showing the FOB ard the CIF prices and also the local transportation and installa- tion cost. Slee whether specialized firms are to be engeged for this purpose, or to act as consultants. Specify the require- ments for technical advisory services. - Indicate the particular works or parts of the Project to be executed under contract, eas well as by direct adminis- tration. Indicate the proposed procedures for the letting of bids on construction, award of contracts and procure- ment of equipment. 5. ESTIMATED COST OF THS PROJECT The cost of construction, interest and other financial expenses to be accrued during the construction period must be shown separately in order to facilitate cost analysis, allow examination of financial alternatives and ultimately determine the amount of investment needed to finance execution of the project. The cost of construction should be divided between "direct cost of works" and “general expenses" related to project execution. The total cost of the project must include all costs for preliminary works and investigations, feasibility studies, preparatory works and supporting installations, procurement of permits, rights of way end easements, etc., as required to initiate the project as well as to complete its construction and put it into operation. In order to pro- vide an economic justification and to determine the rate of return on the project, it is necessary to include in tne cost all interest during construction on loans as well as on the borrower's own capital resources which he uses to finance construction. The estimated cost for each part or subdivision of the project must show the requirement for local and foreign currency expressed in terms of the equivalent in U.S. dollars. The date on which the budget was prepared as well as the rate of exchange used for conversion of local currency will be shown. The general outline to te used in formulating the budget estimate is as follows: . ’ = 9s Criteria adopted for planning load dispatching and the means for communications; describe facilities installed and planned. 4.5 Distribution System The localities where distribution facilities are to be installed should be identified (urban centers or rural areas), whether construction involves new distribution networks or expansion and im- provement of existing networks. Show the technical and economic cri- teria and tire design standards of facilities to be installed. Show consideration given to climate conditions. For each location indicate: feeder points on the distribution grid (transformer substation or local generating station and its capacity); approximate length of primary and secondary distribution circuits, showing the respective voltages; type of structures; type and length of underground cables; number and capacity of distribution transformers} number of service connections and meters. If it is a rural grid, the approximate layout of the primary distribution lines should be shown. 4.6 General Facilities ,. Provide a description and a justification for the facilities and equipment of a general nature not described in paragraphs 4.2 . through 4.4 but which are to be included in the project to be financed; such as buildings for offices, workshops, warehouses; also vehicles end line maintenance equipment; all other transport equipment; laboratory and communications equipment, etc. 4.7 Project Execution ~- Show the respective construction and procurement schedule for each separate part of the Project, on a calendar-year basis, from the designs and specifications stage to tie~ completion of construction and entry into service (make a summary showing each component on a bar chart). The exe- cution schedule should take into account the time required to make arrangements for financing, both external end lo- cal, show the time as funds actually are to be available, so that there can be the proper coordination of the design and construction with the financing. Indicate who will te responsible for engineering (studies, designs, specifica- tions, etc.) and technical supervision of construction; 4.3 Thermal Power Plants Function of the plant as part of the overall energy supply system; riterie used in selecting the type of plant (steam, gas-turbine, diesel) ani the capacity required, indicating the size of the units. In the case of steam plants, indicate the layout and technical character- istics of the principal components (toiler, turbine and condenser). Justify the site selected in relation to the major load centers of the system, characteristics of the terrain at the site, availability of ter (for boiler feed and cooling) and supply of fuel, etc. Program of plant operations (energy and power to be supplied) considering the coordinated operation with other sources of supply; estimated energy which can be delivered under different operating condi- tions. Information on fuels: characteristics, caloric content, method of supply and price, and special installations proposed for storing and handling fuels. 4.4 Transmission System moe Include basic concepts and technical criteria adopted for the design of transmission and sub-transmission lines (choice of voltage,” carrying capacity, voltage regulation, line loss, electrical stability, devices for protection, type of structures and conductors, etc.). Consideration of environmental problens. Also give detailed description of transmission and sub-transmis- sion lines to be built, showing the line layout, voltage, length, number of circuits, type of structures, class and type of conductors. Provide a layout of the projected lines with reference to existing lines and sub- stations. ac . Location and characteristics of the projected substations (including expansion to the capacity of existing substations), indi- cating voltages, transformer capacity, number of circuits, type of structures and principal equipment components for protection, regula- tion and control. s Include a single-line electrical diagram showing the planned ae installations and the installed facilities of the existing generation and transm fon system. Discuss special construction problems (mejor et line crossings, construction in remote areas, etc.). ‘ O -7- project may include any combination of construction works for genera- tion, transmission, distribution, and general installations. Each part of function comprising the Project should be treated and described separately, with appropriate explanations and supporting background information according to instructions set forth below. The construction works must be defined at the level of a preliminary project study, which is the result of a comparative examina- tion of the tecniical alternatives investigated. In addition to a detailed description of the characteristics of each part of the Project, drawings must be attached showing the location, dimensions and general layout of all the installations. For the different types of works which may comprise the Project to be financed, the following specific informa- . tion should be furnished. » 4.2 Hydroelectric Power Stations - Hydrologic Study - River basin characteristics, meteorolo- gical and hydrologic data, basic design flows, chemical analysis of the water, sedimentation, etc. - Soil surveys and geological studies, indicating all drilling operations performed (soundings, core, pits) of the bearing, stability and permeability of the soil in the different areas of the Project. : - Characteristics and availability of construction materials. - Justification of the criteria adopted for the overall design of the project and a description of each of its parts, based on study of the possible variants and the characteristics of the site selected. - Construction problems and proposed methods of project. - construction. i - Energy and power potential developed in relation to available flows, net head, useful storage volume of reservoir, and : operating program for the plamt as part of the overall supply system; firm and secondary energy generation; installatle generating capacity, and proposed size of generators indi- cating the capacity to be installed during each stage of tize Project. -6- 3.3 Energy Needs and Generating Cepecity Required. Determine the yearly energy generation needed for a ten-year period teased on the forecast of consumption and the estimated losses in transmission and districution. Taking into account the character- istics of future demand, determine the annual load factor and make a prediction of raximum kilowatt demand for the whole system, referring this demand to the points of supply (central generating plants and interconnections with other systems). Make a projection of estimated energy production and maximum demand for power showing present availabilities, additional energy and power needs, considering reserve generating capacity, retirement of units, and replacement of inadequate or uneconomic primary energy supplies. Make a graphic presentation of these projections. 3.4 Power Resources Capable of Development. “As a result of the investigations and planning studies make a summary of the alternatives examined as to the supply of prime power sources for the system (generation-transmission), including a technicai and economic justification for the solutions proposed for adoption. If hydro power is to be used, demonstrate its adventages in relation to all other alternatives, thermal or Byaweniae consider production and transmission costs, coordin nated operation of all plants; possibilities for development by stages; operation and supplemental energy sources, etc. In the case of multiple-purpose hydro projects justify allocation of the joint cost of investment to the different functions of the project. The technical and economic justification of the solutions proposed will determine the construction program for the particular stage of development under consideration; this program will then con- stitute the project to be financed. (In small projects or projects of limited local scope, or when only expansion of the distribution. system is involved, it may not be necessary to formulate ea long-term plan ner to define stages of development). ' r 4. CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM TO BE PIU IANCED (THE PROJECT) 1" 4.1 For purposes of Sane a "Project" is defined as all the construction works which the loan acpl qcane prozoses *o accomplish in a given period of time Tor a specific purpose. Unless otherwise indi- cated, it. is assumed that the parts oe the construction works ar Thi a complementary and therefore rave the sane order of priorit;. 2 O -9°- ’ 2.11 Financial Statements (last three years): Submit general balance sheets and accounts of income and expenses showing results of operations for the last 3 years, certified by independent certified public auditors. The following edditional data should be provided: a) Changes in Fixed Assets (increases in capital assets; write-offs, and depreciation). b) Table of accounts receivable showing the amounts due, the number of accounts outstanding for 30, 60, 90 days, up to one year and over one year. Also give full details on the amount, maturity and number of all past due uncollected accounts. c) Changes in the net worth of the company. 2.12 Statement of Cash Flow (last 3 years): Give full details on the sources of all cash income as well as the specific items of expense to which these funds were applied. ’ 3. PLAN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY 3.1 Background, purposes and general policy for development of the electric power system as devised to solve existing problems and provide for future expansion. Reference should be made to the investigations and planning studies which have been completed. If there is'a long-term plan, describe its status and the different stages of its development. 3-2 The Market for Electrical Energy Pan . Make a forecast of the energy consumption (kilowstthour energy sold) by years for a period of ten years, with reference to communities or service areas, number of consumers and annual consumption by type of use (residential, commercial, industrial, etc.). Consider the possibility of atsorbing the consumption now supplied by captive generating facilities. Explain the methods employed in making these projections. es tee ee a oh s - Net revenue from operations and net utility investment (revaluated for each year). - Return on net utility investment. 2.5 Rates in effect and mean selling prices for KWH. Legal provisions and regulations governing establishment and adjustment of rates. . . 2.6 Procedure governing employment and personnel administration. Standards and procedures governing procuremerts and construction con- tracts. Explain whether the company is subject to the control of government agencies in any of these aspects. 2.7. Operating and expansion problems: Explain and comment on: lack of generating capacity (present); condition of installations and deficiencies of same; outstanding appli- cations for service connections; losses from submarginal operations and the causes; inadequate rate structure; dsleys in collections from consumers; organizational and labor problems; legal restrictions, etc. —_ ‘ 2.8 Personnel: . Give details on the total number of persons employed, by category or occupational specialty, in: construction, operation, general administration and other activities. Average levels of compensation. 2.9 Use of engineering consulting firms: Types of services contracted for facilities which are planned, completed, or under construction. s ‘ , 2.10 Special situations as to existing or anticipated institutional, legal ‘or financial arrangements. For example, mergers with other con- panies, changes in the functions or purposes of the organizaticen, and conditions imposed by financial institutions which may effect the crgani- zation or its Pield of activity should be described under this raresraph. 2.3 -3- Works under construction: ~Give a brief description of the generating, transmission and distribution facilities under construction at present, including the form of financing. 2.4 Data regarding the system and results of operations (last five years): Generating capacity installed: . hydro and thermal. Energy production: net annual generation and purchases from other systems. Maximum demand on the system on the central generating Plants and other sources of supply. Number of customers and annual consumption, classified by category of use. Revenue from operations: energy sales, classified by category of use. Operating expenses, itemized as follows: ._~ Hydro-electric generation - operation and maintenance expenses. Thermal-electric generation - operation and maintenance expenses. Energy purchases. Transmission and sub-transmission - operation and, - maintenance expenses. . Distribution - operation and maintenance expenses. Marketing or selling expenses (including billing and collection). : Administration and general operating expenses. Depreciation. Taxes (for which the company. is lieble). -2- 1.3 Captive generating facilities: Importance of generating facilities which provide power to industrial plants and the haem of interconnecting them with the public utility networks. 1.4 Present condition of the power systems: Problems and limitations common to theelectrical energy industry in the area under consideration. Areas or population sectors lecking electricity or insufficiently serviced (as to the reliability of supply and the capacity of installed facilities). 2. EXECUTING AGENCY 5 . oe Most often it is assumed that the agency making application for the loan and responsible for execution and operation of the project is an operating electric utility company. If it is a new company created exclusively for construction of a project, which upon completion is to become an integral part of an existing company, or is to be operated by the latter, the following information shall be supplied for both conm- panies, but giving separate data for each company. ; - 2.1 Origin, nfture, functions and organization of the project executing agency (and of the company responsible for operating the installed project, if it is a separate company). Existing electrical service concessions. Attach supporting documents (laws, executive decrees, by-laws, etc.). 2.2 Describe the present electric power system (facilities in operation): - Generating plants: location, capacity, type and date of construction of the central generating plants; 4s - - Transmission and sub-transmission lines: length and principal characteristics of the lines in service, classified by voltage; number and cavacity of the transformer substations, classified by primary voltage; - Distribution facilities: service locations; approximate length of primary and secondary distribution lines; total aggregate capacity or distribution transformers; number of service connections. Attach reference maps and drawings. GUIDE FOR THE PREPARATION OF FEASIBILITY STUDIES FOR ELECTRIC POWER PROJECTS The purpose of these instructions is to provide assistance to loan applicants in prepering and presenting information to support the tech- nical, economic and financial feasibility of electrical energy develop- ment projects submitted to the Bank for financing. These instructions are general ana must be adapted to the nature, complexity and size of the project under consideration, according to appropriate detailed in- formation. To examine and evaluate an Electric Power Project it is essential to have a tasis or a frame of reference in order to relate the project to the existing electrical system of a given region or the whole country. For this reason, suitable information is required concerning the project service area and the conditions governing the electrical supply before Planning the actual project. Such informetion should be of a technical, economic and institutional nature. It also is necessary to have complete information on the loan applicant, especially in regard to its technical and management organization, its executive capabilities as related to the size of the project, and the financial and economic conditions under which it operates. Finally, except for works that are small in size or scope it is essential to justify the project as a logical and well-de- fined stage in a long-term development plan, duly coordinated with other programs that the applicant agency may have in progress. 1. PRESENT STATE OF POWER SUPPLY IN THE PROJECT SERVICE ARFA 1.1 General characteristics of the area: Size of area, population, type and importance of economic ° activities, principal cities and towns. Prospects for economic develop- ment in the area. — 2 1.2 Existing electrical public utility systems (companies): Areas served and installed generating capacity (hydro and therral), number of consumers, and data on energy production and con- sumption for the entire region. Degree to which the systecs are inter- connected. Importance of energy use in the area compared to the country as a woole. APPENDIX L INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GUIDE FOR THE PREPARATION OF FEASIBILITY STUDIES FOR ELECTRIC POWER PROJECTS Prepared: May 1968 Revised: March 1972 APPENDIX L IDB - GUIDE FOR PREPARATION OF FEASIBILITY STUDIES EXHIBIT K-5 Yields on U.S. Government Securities Percent Eee a oR “, = August 30,1974 i a ene eh SPP oP PPE PPP SPARES ° ! 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20 Years to Moturity Dete US Treasury NOTE: Dato ore ceereee annual yields of U.S. Government securities with terms to maturity varying from 3 months to 20 years. US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Exhibit 5 b uquxg EXHIBIT K-4 THE NOMINAL INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION RATE PERCENT 10, INFLATION RATE | | 70 72 L 1952 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 SOURCES; THE NOMINAL ENTEREST RATE FS MOODY’S AAA CORPORATE BOND SERIES, THE MEASURE OF ENFLATION IS THE AVERAGE RATE OF CHANGE OF THE GNP DEFLATOR OVER THE PRECEDING 2 YEARS, COMPUTED AT ANNUAL RATES ON THE BASIS OF CONTINUQUS COMPOUNDING, € Naryxg FEXHIBIT K-3 THE NOMINAL INTEREST RATE AND EXPECTED INFLATION RATE PERCENT 10 8 PRIME RATE “Ny a 7 7 1 Z q S 7 ane A fT tan 4 aN 4 7 N 4] a -— -_ a _ 2 7 XN EXPECTED INFLATION RATE oO } | 1952 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 SOURCES: THE PRIME RATE 3S THE ANNUAL YOARLY AVERAGE OF PRIME RATES CHARGED BY LEADING COMMERCIAL BANKS, STATISTICS WERE SUPPLIED BY THE LOAN AND CREOTT OEPARTMENT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON, EXPECTED INFLATION SERLTES WAS SUPPLIED BY JOSEPH A, LEVINGSTON, WHO HAS SURVEYED LEADING ECONOMISTS AND FINANCEAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS BEOANNUALLY ABOUT THE RATE OF INFLATION THEY EXPECTED 10 PREVAIL OVER THE COMING 12 MONTHS, SEE S.J. TURNOVSKY, "EMPIRICAL EVIOENCE ON THE FORMATION OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS", JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCHATION FOR A GENERAL ANALYSIS OF INE LEVINGSTON DATA, EXHIBIT K-2 CASH FLOW WITH 6% INFLATION Year 0 1 2 3 4 Assets (1000) Nominal Revenues (with 6% inflation) 424.00 449.44 476.41 504.99 Nominal Costs (with 6% inflation) (132.50) (140.45) (148.88) (157.81) Net Cash Flow 291.50 308.99 327.339 347.18 The net present value (NPV') equals zero when the cash flow is discounted at 10.16%. Therefore, the nominal internal rate of return (i') is 10.16%. The discounted net cash flow is shown below. NPV = 0 = (1000) + 291.50 + 308.99 + 327.53 + 347.18 (1+i') (1+i')2 (1+i')3 (1+i')4 EXHIBIT K-I CASH FLOW IN CONSTANT DOLLARS Year 0 1 2 3 4 Assets (1000) Revenues (in constant prices) 400 400 400 400 Costs (in constant prices) (125) (125) (125) (125) Net Cash Flow 275 275 275 275 The net present value (NPV) equals zero when the cash flow is discounted at 3.92%. Therefore, the real internal rate of return (i) is 3.92%. The discounted net cash flow is shown below. NPV = 0 = (1000) + 275 + 275 + 275 + 275 (1+i) (1+i)2 (1t+i)3 (1+i)4 CONCLUSION The recommended method of doing economic and financial analysis is in constant, real prices. These real prices should be altered only if real prices are expected to change in the future. Real prices do not respond directly to changes in inflation. The real internal rate of return determined by the analysis should be compared to alternative real rates of return (with consideration being given to risk factors) in alternative investments in order to determine if investment in the project is advisable. fluctuations in interest rates. Therefore it may be advisable to adjust the discount rate (expessed as the real opportunity cost of capital) if it is assumed that investment funds are in relatively short or excess supply which may tend to alter present real interest rates relative to historical real interest rates. Harberger(2) states, "It may occur that a developing country may face a situation in which investable funds are abnormally scarce relative to investment opportunities (as when large debt service payments are due and available investment opportunities are particularly good) or in which investable funds are abnormally abundant relative to opportunities (as when the country receives a particularly large amount of foreign aid, or when its main export product experiences a temporary large increase in price, without investment opportunities expanding correspondingly). In circumstances like these, the country should attach a "price" to the use of investable funds which is higher than the expected future price if funds are relatively scarce, and lower if funds are relatively abundant. This can be done by attaching to each year a discount rate that corresponds to the expected marginal productivity of capital in that year." Harberger continues, "It is unfortunate that the great bulk of the literature on cost-benefit analysis has been based on the simplifying assumption of a constant discount rate, because this assumption fails to give guidance as to how to overcome periods of unusual stringency in the supply of capital funds or how best to take advantage of a temporarily large availability of such funds." Such adjustments should probably be made only over the short term because it is difficult to predict long term trends. The best estimate for the long-term, therefore, is the historical real rate of return. Exhibit K-5 illustrates that long-term U.S. security yields tend to fluctuate much less than short term rates. (1)See "Interest Rates and the Infation Premium," Monthly Review, May, 1973 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. (2)Project Evaluation, Arnold C. Harberger, University of Chicago, p. 41 and p- 42 E«3 Gittinger adds, "Sound project preparation must take into account that there may be inflation and that cost estimates, based on current prices, may lead to a financial squeeze on the project as investment proceeds. If inflation is expected to be significant, provision needs to be made in preparing the project financing plan for the effects of a general price rise on project costs so that adequate budget funds can be anticipated and the project will not be subject to delay. Inflation contingency allowances which would then be included in the financing plan would not, however, be included among the costs when estimating the internal financial or economic rate of return." When performing net present value or internal rate of return analysis, benefits and costs should be accounted for in constant dollars and adjusted only if costs are expected to change relative to the domestic inflation rate. Thus, if in one year inflation is expected to increase domestically by 7% and the price of equipment to be imported for a project is expected to increase 15%, then real costs of imported equipment should be increased 8% - the net, real increase in constant dollars. ADJUSTING THE DISCOUNT RATE When discounting to determine the real rate of return, it is useful to know how variable the real rate of return in alternative investments is likely to be in the future. A project should not be accepted if the real rate of return in an alternative investment is expected to be higher than the project's real rate of return. The monetarists suggest that the real rate of return on capital will tend to remain relatively constant - reflecting the marginal productivity of capital. This theory suggests that normal interest rates will respond directly to changes in expectations of changes in inflation in order to maintain a constant real rate of return equal to the difference between the nominal rate and inflation. Thus, if nominal interest rates are 10% and inflation is expected to remain constant at 6%, the real rate of interest to expect is approximately 4%. Nominal interest rates should also remain constant as long as inflationary expectations do not change. However, if inflation is expected to rise from 6% to 8%, nominal interest rates should rise from 10% to 12%, thus maintaining a real rate of return equal to 4%. Exibits K-3 and K-4 tend to support the above assumptions. Exhibits K-3 and K-4 show some years, however, when nominal interest and expected inflation rates fail to move together, thus resulting in a variation in the real interest on money-fixed assets. Factors influencing this phenomenon are suggested by the Keynesian School of economic theory which argues that interest rates respond directly to changes in supply and demand for money as well as to changes in the expected inflation rate. In terms of Keynesian theory, demand is determined both by nominal GNP growth and nominal interest rates, and supply is determined by commercial banks subject to policy actions of the Central Banking System and availability of foreign capital. Historical evidence(1) suggests that the above theoretical argument does not explain some Kai. APPENDIX K INCORPORATING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN PRESENT WORTH STUDIES GENERAL The following discusses the appropriate method of incorporating anticipated inflation in present worth studies. Exhibits K-1 and K-2 show two methods of doing present worth studies. Exhibit K-1 shows a cash flow done in constant dollars. It is discounted in order to determine the net present value and internal rate of return of the cash flow in constant dollars. This allows a real rate of return to be calculated. Exhibit K-2 shows the same cash slow which incorporates an expected inflation rate. It is assumed that both revenues and costs increase at the same rate. Thus, the net cash flow and internal rate of return are expressed in nominal terms, not real terms. Current literature discussing economic and financial analysis suggests that real, rather than nominal, rate of return calculations are preferable. The following discussion by J. Price Gittinger(1) elaborates this point: "Most countries have an experience of inflation and the only realistic assessment of the future is that inflation will continue. This raises the question of how to cope with inflation in project analysis. One means would be to inflate all costs and returns by what you expect will be an average rate of inflation. However, this is cumbersome and unnecessary (and may sidetrack discussion of your analysis to a discussion of probable rates of inflation). Much the better solution, if it accurately reflects your expectation of reality, is to assume that all prices on both the cost side and the benefit side will rise uniformly by the same proportion and that, therefore, they will not change their relative values. Then your analytical procedure can be simply to value all future prices at today's levels. This is equivalent, of course, to deflating all costs and benefits by some kind of price index; say, keeping all costs constant. Of course, if it is your expectation that inflation will have a different impact on some prices than on others, then your analysis will have to reflect the change in relative prices. Such differences might occur, for example, if you think the domestic rate of inflation will be different from that of world inflation or if you think inflation will affect costs to a different degree than benefits. In such a case, it is likely the best procedure is to assume constant prices for all items except the ones which you think will be affected to a different degree by inflation. Then the prices for those items you think will be influenced differentially can be increased or deceased to reflect your views about relative changes in prices arising from the differing impact of inflation." (1)Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects, J. Price Gittinger, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1972, p. 37 and p.102. Kiet APPENDIX K INCORPORATING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 6 FANSIA FIGURE 9 — SKETCH OF DISTORTION IN A UNIFORM ELECTRIC FIELD BY A GROUNDED MAN 8 JYuNdI4 KV RMS / METER VOLTAGE GRADIENT . @ 1M ABOVE EARTH (66 ABOVE EARTH) (62’°ABOVE EARTH) (60'ABOVE EARTH) 100 LATERAL DISTANCE, FT. K. om Z 4 na x 50 0 WEST --}|—- EAST FIGURE 8 COMPARISON OF MEASURED BODY CURRENTS AND VOLTAGE GRADIENTS — AEP JEFFERSON 765 kV LINE AT DUMONT STATION FIRST SPAN — 85 NORTH OF QUINN ROAD 50 100 REPRODUCED FROM RESULTS OF TESTS IN JUNE, 1973 (By WC Pokorny - AEP) 47anodl4 63 MINIMUM ele ele ee 48 CLEARANCE , | ' 50 50 T T T s T 0 100 +200°~=«300~S*«SSs*=«SSC«iOO 750 05 0s 05 LONGITUDINAL PROFILE 0.4 Ss > MAXIMUM ‘AT CENTER LINE OF R.O.W. S we 0.3 4000 MW LOADING S w MAXIMUM 800 MW LOADING sc eercecccccsces seen 0.1 MAGNETIC FLUX DENSITY (GAUSS) LATERAL PROFILE = > AT 48 CONDUCTOR HEIGHT ~ S w AT 63 | 4000 MW CONDUCTOR | ,OADING HEIGHT \ Ss ww AT 100 ONDUCTOR HEIGHT cS ; 800 MW LOADING “* +»... MAGNETIC FLUX DENSITY (GAUSS) 0 r - + T T T 0 Le CONDUCTOR. HEIGHT: —r —T 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 750 125 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 125 DISTANCE (FEET) FROM TOWER DISTANCE (FEET) FROM CENTER OF R.O.W. FIGURE 7 PASNY 765 kV MAGNETIC GRADIENT PROFILES (MEASUREMENTS 1 METER ABOVE GROUND) 93ayNOIs > 48FT., < 52 (ie. SEFT.) > 52. < 56 56, 60 60. 64 64, 68 68. 72 125 16 76. 40 80. 84 84. 88 (MAX. 87 FT.) (ty (2) 62.2% 17.2% 13.6% 3.6 % NY PORTION NORTH PORTION MASSENA-QUEBEC MASSENA-MARCY TOTAL % (1) Q) 40 63 103 378 23 100 123 45.0 4 8 n 44 3 6 9 33 2 7 9 33 4 3 7 26 3 2 5 18 2 0 2 07 0 2 2 07 1 0 1 04 82SPANS 191 SPANS 273 1000 ENTIRELY FLAT TERRAIN — 21 MILES & 48 MILES — ONLY LAST FEW MILES SOUTHERN END ARE HILLY TERRAIN > $2 FEET > 56 > $6 AND = 72 AND < 72 FEET UP TO 87 FEFT FIGURE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF GROUND CLEARANCE — TOTAL PASNY 765 kV LINE (MINIMUM CLEARANCE @ 120°F) NOTE: Final Sag — Corrected by Ruling Span (120°F cond. temperature means minimum will be 51 feet, not the 48 feet @ 155°F, 4000 MW Cannot subtract 3 feet from each, strictly speuking, but distribution of clearances is still valid.) $ 7uNdld 48 MINIMUM CLEARANCE le 1500° I ELEVATION 1 >» < = e 3 E Q a ‘co a FIGURE 5 PLAN VIEW SHOWING CONSTANT kV/m CONTOURS ELECTROSTATIC FIELD DISTRIBUTION — PASNY 765 kV - 48 (MIN) CLEARANCE + FyNNols VOLTAGE GRADIENT (KV/m.) 4g MINIMUM { CLEARANCE 10 10 9 9 8 MAXIMUM 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 AT CENTER LINE 4 OF R. 0. W. 3 3 ~~ 2 2 LONGITUDINAL 1} oe PROFILE 1 T T T T T —T T 0 T T T 0 100-200 300 400 «= 500-—S—«600 700750 125 100 80 60 40 20 0 DISTANCE (FEET) FROM TOWER FIGURE 4 PASNY 765 kV VOLTAGE GRADIENT PROFILES (MEASUREMENTS 1 METER ABOVE GROUND) 20 40 DISTANCE (FEET) FROM CENTER OF R.O.W. LATERAL PROFILE 60 80 100 125 VOLTAGE GRADIENT (KY/m.) € Janos 12 < x VOLTAGE GRADIENT (KV /m.) @ 1.8m ABOVE EARTH ~ VOLTAGE (KV; — 1) CONDUCTOR 114 DIAMETER (INCHES) (2.9 cm.) .| MINIMUM COND. 49.2 FEET CLEARANCE (15 meters) PHASE SPACING BUNDLE SPACING LEGEND REPRODUCED FROM U.S.S.R. PAPER ® AT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE IN 1975 @® __—_. C.T.M. COMPUTER CALCULATION OF CURVE 1! @ nme C.T.M. COMPUTER CALCULATION OF PASNY 765 KV LINE 35 30S 20S 10 $ Il $ io 15 W 2% 30 3S 40} METERS . 4 4. 4 4 +. a 4 —i_ 4 4 4+___1_ 4 — T T Tv r rv ¥ ¥ “T Tr r,r T ee Tr T ¥ T rT TT r T Tv 120110 100 90 30 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 3 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110120 FEET DISTANCE FROM CENTER OF R.O.W. FIGURE 3 COMPARISON USSR/PASNY 765 kV TRANSMISSION GRADIENTS (1.8 METERS ABOVE GROUND) April 13. 1976 FIGURE 2 — 500 kV LINES — BRATSIC, USSR — 1976 CLASSIFICATION TOTAL 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 ELECTRIC SHOCK OR BURN Transmission Voltage 765 kV 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 500 kV 1 a = = = = 5 = = = = = = = = = - ° = = = 1 = 345kV 0 - - - ~ - - - _ - - - a - = ~ - - - - - - - 230kV 3 - = - - - - - - - - - 1 - = 1 - - - 1 - - 13BkV 4 = - - - - - - - ' - - 1 1 - - - - 1 - - - Total Transmission 8 - > - - - - 1 - - ! 2 - = 1 = - 1 1 1 - Subtransmission Voltage 128 Is 8 7 6 8 12 6 i" 7 4 5 8 10 5 4 o 0 3 3 2 3 1 (over 22 kV but less than 138 kV) Distribution Voltage 1198 78 67 88 4 78 $3 53 69 49 2 48 $2 47 $7 58 “4 55 43 40 “a a 38 (less than 22 KV) Lightning 2 - - - - - = - - = = = = 1 = 1 7 = - E = TOTAL ELECTRIC SHOCK/BURN 1336 93 1s 95 70 86 65 39 80 57 % $3 61 s9 62 63 4s 56 4% “4 6 “ 39 FIGURE 1 Summarized by: ELECTRIC SHOCK OR BUM Howard C. Bames ACCIDENTS RESULTING IN EMPLOYEE FATALITIES REPORTED BY THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY COMPILED BY THE SAFETY AND INDUSTRIAL HEALTH COMMITTEE OF THE EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE 1 aanold FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 FIGURE 3 FIGURE 4 FIGURE 5 FIGURE 6 FIGURE 7 FIGURE 8 FIGURE 9 LIST OF FIGURES Electric Shock or Burn Accidents Resulting in Employee Fatalities Reported by the Electric Utility Industry Compiled by the Safety and Industrial Health Committee of the Edison Electric Institute. 500 kV Lines — Bratsk, USSR — 1976 Comparison USSR/PASNY 765 kV Transmission Gradients (1.8 meters above ground) PASNY 765 kV Voltage Gradient Profiles (measurements 1 meter above ground) Plan View Showing Constant kV/m Contours Electrostatic Field Distribution — PASNY 765 kV — 48 (min.) Clearance Distribution of Ground Clearance — Total PASNY 765 kV Line (minimum clearance @ 120°F) PASNY 765 kV Magnetic Gradient Profiles (measurements 1 meter above ground) Comparison of Measured Body Currents and Voltage Gradients — AEP Jefferson 765 kV Line at Dumont Station First Span — 85 North of Quinn Road Sketch of Distortion in a Uniform Electric Field by a Grounded Man J-19 say that the answer is on page 4, lines 9 to 20 of reference 10. When reviewing material in preparation for testimony, I generally note on the fly-leaf of the book or paper key points that may be useful. From this you can annotate your copy of your prepared testmony. And be sure that you have copies of the references available to hand to opposing attorneys and hearing examiners just in case they have "misplaced" the copies you provided them previously. Don't be afraid to expand upon a question in answering it. Opposing counsel will try to confine you to positive yeses and noes; particularly he will like to hear a list of "I'm not sure's" because it contributes to discrediting. But as you know, it is not easy to answer a layman's question by yes or no. The background on which the question is answered is an important part of the answer. So take time to explain the background-don't be panicked. Insist upon being given time to set the stage. It will do you much good and often will be damaging to opposing counsel. In the minimum he will avoid asking exploratory questions if he knows he is going to open the door to a classroom lecture. The conclusion in the Sheppard-Eisenbud book (p. 2-30) is, I believe, a realistic summary of the biomedical effects of electrical facilities: "The research conducted to date does not permit unequivocal assessment of the safety of long exposures to ELF fields, but neither is there a basis for alarm concerning exposure to the public." I urge you to speak out in this vein. Electricity is a very great contributor to the health and welfare of mankind and the risk-benefit balance is highly favorable to electricity. You engineers will be doing a disservice to your fellow man if you do not take an aggressive stance. wikis J =- 18 SUMMARY Presented herein are a few of the many aspects of health and safety of transmission lines and other electrical faciities. Being highly subject to emotional reaction and to differing conditions and cultural sensitivities, each case must be considered from the viewpoint of its local environment even though the true scientific and engineering aspects are pretty generally applicable in all cases. The foregoing discussion has generally been predicated upon the New York State hearings which cetainly involve a high emotional ambient. For example, one group is not truly opposing the line because of its possible health effects but rather because they are strongly convinced that the purpose of the line is not to bring cheap hydro power from Canada to New York but rather to set the stage for a nuclear plant on the St. Lawrence River which they violently oppose. They argue that presence of the high power transmission capability would be a decisive economic argument in favor of a nuclear plant soon after the line is constructed. In another case involving crossing of an Indian reservation, the Indian Council objected on the grounds of health and safety. But at a meeting with the power companies involved, the Council wanted to know the additional cost of building the line on the longer alternate route going around the reservation. They very subtly suggested that if this increment of several million dollars were split with them, the health effects of the shorter route would be negligible. I cite these examples to point up to you that should you be called upon to testify, be sure to spend some time on getting a feel for the ambient. Doing so will aid you materially in anticipating questions during cross-examination and in being careful in preparing your testimony that you do not necessarily open doors to sensitive subjects. Here you may need to stand up to your own counsel as they are not always as sharp and alert as they would like you to believe they are. In preparing testimony, it is important to keep cross-examination always in mind. Cross-examination is supposed to be designed to bring out the truth. But a great deal of it is used in an effort to discredit the witness. Even though supposedly not permitted, there will be many fishing expeditions in an effort to confuse you. This was particularly true in the New York case where all direct testimony had to be filed in advance and opposing counsel had months in which to spot the points that would hurt them most and to design questions to lessen the impact. And don't be misled into believing that attorneys practice what they preach-the truth and only the truth. In cross-examination counsel will insist on seeing published support for your statements even though you may be the world's greatest expert on the subject. This will give them the opportunity to quibble with the meaning of the written words, what you really knew or had in mind at the time. So my advice to you is that when preparing testimony, be sure to have a clear guide to written backup. It is most effective when answering a question to be quickly able to J- 17 OZONE The conclusions of experts is that ozone generated by transmission lines, including 765 kV, under worst case conditions would have no deleterious effect upon humans, plants or animals. Neither do nitrous oxides. J - 16 Much of the modern farm machinery, such as a large combine, is tall and, therefore, closer to the conductors. The metal frame ‘provides good grounding but unfortunately some parts-seats, gas tanks, etc.-are insulated by shock mountings. This results in annoying spark discharges. These parts should be jumped by conductng straps. Whether you do it or pay the farmer to do it-and who provides continuing maintenance-is something to talk over with counsel. There is one known case of a farmer having a large metal strap between his knee and hip as a result of an accident. He was particularly subject to discharge annoyance getting on and off farm machinery. Conducting pants provided good protection for him. AUDIBLE NOISE I believe it is now generally accepted that audible noise, while not desirable, is definitely not a health hazard even with economically practical line designs. In the New York hearings, data used for the PASNY lines was 60 dBA maximum and approximately 57 dBA at the edge of the 250 ft. right-of-way. But these would occur only for the "worst case" weather conditions which occur only about 10% of the time and only about 5% at night. It was deemed that these levels could produce the sleep interference level of 35 dBA at a bedroom 150 ft. from the edge of the right-of-way. However, experts concede a 10 to 15 dBA attenuation even through an open window. This attenuation level, of course, is debatable. I have problems with these sleep interference discussions. I live in one of those modern, sealed apartments on Boylston Street in Boston. We are subjected to frequent fire and police sirens and noises of "modern society night activity". I'm sure the air flow noise inside the apartment is well above 35 dBA-probably more like 50 db. My problem is not sleep interference, it is staying awake! In fact, there are few rural areas with ambient noise levels of less than 35 dBA. Perhaps EPA will fine all crickets, tree frogs, rustling of leaves, etc. In my testimony in the New York hearings, I pointed out that audible noise complaints were invariably associated with TV and RI _ complaints. When we corrected the latter, the AN complaints went away. Particularly interesting was the case for which we hurriedly installed ultra-corona devices. This cut down the white noise and satisfied the complainants even though the 120 Hz harmonic noise increased due to increased corona losses. We also installed a common antenna for this group. About a year later, we removed the super-corona devices because they were falling apart. The AN complants did not return. Audible noise can be a nuisance; it is not a health hazard. J = 15 Also, discharge currents resulting from transmission lines can recur because of the AC nature of the electricity. They are not as simple as those of a rug. The PASNY line clearance of 48 ft. minimum was based on limiting induced currents to the now commonly accepted 5.0 milliampere level. This was for the condition of the largest presently known crop wagon pulled by a large tractor. However, this condition occurs for only the "worst possible" case which is totally unrealistic. The work of Dr. Deno (GE-EPRI/ERDA Project UHV) showed that the "worst possible" case is a contrived situation that will not occur in nature. His “worst probable" criteria was considered as practical by PASNY and accepted by them. The “worst probable" case currents for PASNY lines are less than the 1.0 milliampere perception level of fifty percent of the public. The commission noted in its opinion that "the maximum steady state shock levels predicted for the proposed transmission facility are not likely to cause harm," and "the risk of indirect or secondary injury is less than the likelihood of exceeding the 1.0 ma level." Fences, metal roofs, loose metallic objects laying around (scrap machinery, etc.) should, of course, be grounded, utilizing practical guides. For example, metal fences near and parallel to a transmission line should be grounded but, if a fence is at an angle of more than 30 degrees to the centerline, it need not be grounded, although practicaly, it might be just as well to disregard angle. A practical fence ground is driven metal fence posts at regular intervals. Some of the older electric fence chargers do not provide effective drainage. This can be achieved with a drain coil such as commonly used with carrier current sets. The most acceptable approach for the farmer is generally to replace it with a new one. Generally, they will request the Sears Roebuck "weed burner", the discharges of which are so strong that they keep the weeds cropped along the electric fence. But that is what the farmers have specified almost unanimously. Reasonable caution should be used by farmers working on equipment under lines to avoid possible harm from inadvertent reaction to spark discharges. And, of course, while both Russian and U.S. engineers agree that gasoline ignition is not a problem, it would seem practical to suggest that refueling not be done in areas of high discharge possibility. My belief is that the concern would be that ignition might result from another cause, but that the utility would be blamed. Some of you may recall that super-tanker ships have exploded when empty and being washed with water. The friction within the water flowing in the hoses built up molecular charges that discharged and ignited the gas fumes. Dragging ground chains by farm equipment rarely improves the grounding provided by carbon in the tires, dirt, etc., but they have good psychological effect. J- 14 like all devices, is subject to defects.) The effect on a pacemaker of any possible interference from power lines is thus on the safe _ side. It automatically starts operating in a positive mode. As a relevant observation, I wish to emphasize that many other environments besides transmission lines produce electric fields. For instance, an electric shaver produces between 5 to 10 gauss, which is 10 to 20 times the maximum magnetic field under the 765 kV lines. There are many other examples of home appliances that can cause pacemaker interference and which often are used in close proximity of the heart. Early models of pacemakers had weaknesses, or growing pains. They were not properly shielded; they were not properly coated; incompatible materials were used. Therefore, they were subject to interferences and to defects; resistors and other components failed. Modern designers of pacemakers are aware of possible 60 Hz interference and provide filtering and shielding for them. The pacemakers are well encased and materials compatible with the body are used. There is no concern for modern pacemakers exposed to the electric fields of transmission lines, or even of the much stronger fields emanating from everyday household and workshop tools, even though today's pacemakers are of a single electrode, demand type. Since pacemakers are regularly replaced about every two years, all those presently installed are modern and therefore are effectively immune to outside interference. For those of you sincerely interested in pacemaker operations, I suggest a visit to a medical center specializing in their installation. You will find fascinating the monitoring system provided for the patients. A patient can transmit, via telephone, information that is automatically recorded in the center to provide the doctor with cardiographic information for analysis. This also provides a continuing record of pacemaker condition so that planning for replacement can be done well in advance. A part of this operation involves deliberately throwing the pacemaker into continuous operation by the patient's subjecting it to a very high magnetic field by placing a large magnet over his pacemaker. Repeating, the thing to remember is that biannual replacement has dispensed with the earlier less-perfected types, and modern types are not susceptible to outside interference. Also, modern knowledge provides intelligent guidelines for the patient; a patient with an acute heart condition will be advised by his doctor not to operate a large electric welder. INDUCED CURRENT SHOCKS This is the most troublesome practical consideration, but it is solvable by practical methods. It is, however, highly emotional because discharges are perceptible and because there is concern for let-go values for children. While the spark discharges normally are no more severe than those obtained after walking across the rug, the presence of the high power electric lines makes those related to transmission more ominous-there is no high voltage power source in the room where the rug is. J - 13 cause some discomfort because of its not being at the patient's normal beat rate. Sensitivity to interference from outside fields varies among pacemaker types and individual designs. The sensitivity of both the synchronous and asynchronous types is affected by the lead arrangement between the heart sensor and the pacemaker itself. Some of these have a single lead and rely upon the body for the return path for the pulse. These are known as uni-polar. Others have two wires and are known as bi-polar. The most sensitive is the unipolar type, as the return via the body simulates a loop antenna to pick up signals. Some of the earlier bipolar types not having the leads closely together or properly shielded, were similarly sensitive. Generally, most sensitive because of their advanced measuring circuitry, were the early unipolar synchronous types. The Illinois Institute of Technologies Research Institute (IITRI) carried out a study of possible influence of an AEP 765 kV line on pacemakers. Their analysis assumed the following conditions existing simultaneously: Zn Line current of 2000 amps (approximately 2700 MVA at 765 kV), 2 a person standing at the point of maximum field strength, 3% with his body oriented such that the induction from this field on the loop formed by the leads of his heart pacer is at a maximum, and 4. that this person is equipped with the most sensitive synchronous, unipolar type of pacer. For this case, IITRI found the magnetic field strength resulting from the current flowing is only about half of that required to interfere with the most sensitive pacer. In other words, there is a 100% margin over worst-case Magnetic field conditions. For the electrostatic field again using the conditions above, plus an assumption that the voltage produced across the terminals of the pacemaker is the same value as measured on the patient's chest-which is pessimistic because the resistivity of the human body is variable and much lower internally than at skin surface-then a few of the most sensitive synchronous type pacemakers could be affected. For all types of asynchronous pacers, both with unipolar and bipolar leads, the threshold voltage was found by IITRI to be at least an order of magnitude higher than the maximum voltage induced at the pacemaker leads by a 765 kV line. Going even further to the extreme of assuming that a synchronous pacemaker is interfered with, what is the effect in terms of its consequences to _ the person? As previously noted, the effect of an interference on a synchronous pacemaker is to cause it to revert to the asynchronous mode of operation. This results from a deliberately designed safety feature to prevent stopping of the pacemaker altogether, should something happen to the sensing circuitry. (Tt, a =i concluded that there will be no "significant" biological effects resulting from exposure to the electric and magnetic fields of the proposed 765 kV lines, and that there will be no neural stimulation or tissue heating caused by such fields. Marino recommended that the chronic exposure of the general public be limited to a maximum of 0.15 kV per meter, basing this figure primarily on a literature survey and experiments conducted on rats in the presence of a 15 kV/m field and then applying a 100 to 1 "safety factor". Applicants' witnesses have noted that the conclusions reached by the Marino, et al experiments are meaningless inasmuch as first, the experimental protocol was defective since the animals subjected to the fields received shocks whenever they ate or drank, thus subjecting them to an additional biological stressor not experienced by the control animals, and second, Marino by dropping the highest and lowest values in each group (a fact which was not mentioned in his papers but was brought out on cross examination) thereby employed an invalid statistical procedure. When the data is analyzed by proper statistical procedures the major differences reported by Marino disappear except for a decreased water intake noted in respect of exposed animals, which is perfectly understandable in the light of the animals being shocked each time they drank. (1) The applicants also introduced into evidence the Kouwenhoven, Singewald, et al study of eleven linemen and the follow-up study with which I am sure you are all familiar. Such studies, as you know, concluded that the linemen suffered no deleterious effects from prolonged exposre to electric and magnetic fields much stronger than any which could be experienced by any member of the public under an EHV line. PACEMAKERS Pacemakers manufactured today fall into to general types: qQ) 1. The Asynchronous Type. It is what I consider to be the "continuous" type. It operates continuously at a predetermined rate, not necessarily in synchronism with the natural heart beat; thus the "asynchronous" no- menclature. This type is worn by persons who are totally pacemaker dependent, those whose heart requires the artificial stimulus continuously. x. The Synchronous Type. It is what I consider to be the "demand" type. It normally does nothing other than sense the signals that control the patient's heatbeat. It issues pulses only when it senses that the stimulus to cause a heartbeat is too low. It then generates pulses in synchronism with the normal beat, thus the "synchronous" nomenclature. Its operation is designed to be "fail safe," in that failure of its sensing circuitry will cause it to operate at a fixed rate as with the asynchronous type. This fixed rate operation can, I understand, sometimes Now issued. See Supplement and Reply Brief by the Power Authority of the State of New York dated September 23, 1977. J medical researcher and, I believe, also is an electrical engineer. He exposed monkeys to magnetic fields of frequencies ranging from 6 to 15 Haz. He found that he could influence the sleep habits of the monkeys. Not only could he cause them to sleep, he could cause them to sleep peacefully or to be subjected to disturbing dreams. It is intriguing to me that the normal frequency of magnetic reflections between the earth and the atmospheric blanket is 6 to 8 Hz which is within the range of Dr. Adey's experiments. Dr. Adey observed no effects at frequencies greater than 32 Hz. However, he does not foreclose the possibility that perhaps some responses would appear in the monkeys for frequencies above 32 Hz where very high magnetic fields were involved. However, he does not contend that there is interference from power systems. He is very sensitive on this subject since he has been misquoted by some in the news media. Much biomedical research has resulted from the Navy's proposed system for communication to submarines. This program was originally known as Operation Sanguine, but now is designated Operation Seafarer. It involves a frequency shift system at frequencies between 45 and 70 Hz emanating from buried antenna. But here, again, human subjects are not involved in the research. Congress has prohibited their use as guinea pigs. The committee of the National Research Council following this project, last fall issued a preliminary finding that results, to date, of this research do not indicate any detrimental effects. Dr. Adey is a member of this committee. It is interesting that the committee has not indicated a need for additional research. Their final report is expected this year.(1) Prior to the ban by Congress, one group of men was exposed to 1 G magnetic field at 45 Hz by Beischler et al (see Sheppard-Eisenbud, p. 2-14). An increase in serum levels of triglycerides was found. Beischler quite candidly stated that increases could not be concretely elated to the exposure to magnetic fields. However this finding does seem to warrant further research. (1) Perhaps the best up-to-date status report of biological effects is the summation by Attorney Wallace in his CIGRE presentation, which is repeated here verbatim: The most controversial area of the hearings concerned the biological effects of the electric and magnetic fields of EHV transmission lines. Three Public Service Commission staff witnesses, Dr. Andrew Marino, Dr. Robert Becker and Mr. Allan Frey, gave direct testimony suggesting that biological effects will probably occur from the electric and magnetic fields, although none was able to state what specific effects there will be or whether such effects would be harmful to living organisms. Applicants presented four witnesses: Dr. Herman Schwan of the University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Sol Michaelson, Dr. Morton Miller and Dr. Edwin Carstensen, all of the University of Rochester, who testified and (1) Now issued. See Supplement. J = 10 DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRO-MAGNETIC FIELD GRADIENTS Figure 7 provides, similarly, the distribution for electro-magnetic fields. Presently, these are important to us only in relation to pacemakers, which will be discussed later. VOLTAGE GRADIENT VS. BODY CURRENT Voltage gradient measurements are important in that they serve as a means for determining body currents arising from exposure to electric fields. That body currents can be related with measurements of undistorted fields is illustrated in Figure 8. The solid line is the result of measurements of currents passing through his body, as measured by W.C. Pokorny of AEP, while standing under a 765 kV line. Undisturbed voltage gradients are shown by the dashed line. Bill is about 6 ft.-1 in. and weighs about 190 lbs. While taking measurements, he insulated himself from the ground by wearing thick rubber boots. He then grounded himself through a prod that placed a micro-ammeter between him and the ground. (The prod is now known to us as the Pokorny Cane.) He also measured undisturbed voltage gradient at the same spot. The measured currents and voltage gradients were checked with calculated values. Thus he demonstrated the validity of relationships between measured undisturbed voltage gradients and actual body current, and between measured and calculated values of these parameters when handled by skilled and experienced persons. The undisturbed vs. disturbed field relationships are important items to remember should you be called upon to testify. For a normal man, the field intensifies about 15 times at the head and as much as 50 times at the end of an extended arm (Figure 9). Opponents will try to use this to demonstrate that body currents will be many times greater than calculations indicate. The studies, carried out by AEP and by others that refute this conjecture, are summarized in Section 4.6 of the Sheppard-Eisenbud book. These include measurements of voltage gradients and body currents of linemen doing hot line work at 345 kV. BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS While there is much discussion of research being carried out by medical centers, there is, so far, no substantiated evidence that fields emanating from electrical transmission are detrimental to health. My conviction is reinforced by this excerpt from the Sheppard-Eisenbud book (p. 2-30): "The research conducted to date does not permit unequivocal assessment of the safety of long exposures to ELF fields, but neither is there a basis for alarm concerning exposure to the public. Although the literature indicates physiological changes under certain experimental conditions, the reported effects require verification and then evaluation of their practical significance." One of the research projects of interest to me for a long time is the work of Dr. W. Ross Adey at the Brain Research Institute. He is a very capable i= DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRO-STATIC FIELD GRADIENTS When considering exposure to electric fields under transmission lines, the reference is always to the maximum possible gradient that would occur only at maximum design sag. This minimum design clearance would occur only for the combination of the hottest weather conditions and with maximum power flowing. For PASNY, this would require a combination of an ambient of 104F, a wind speed of only 2 FPS, and an emergency load of 4000 MW. The possibility of these PASNY conditions occurring simultaneously to give the minimum design clearance of 48 ft. is, in my opinion, nil. Under normal operating conditions, clearances of up to 8 ft. more than design minimum would prevail. But let us look at what it would mean should it happen. Figure 4 shows PASNY voltage gradients in lateral and longitudinal profile. Note in the longitudinal profile that, because of the catenary configuration, a gradient in excess of 9 kV/m exists only along the center 300 ft. or so of the 1500 ft. span. Note, also, in the lateral profile of the lowest point of sag that the maximums appear only for a narrow band under the outside phases. A contour of voltage gradient in plan (Figure 5) demonstrates that the area of maximum exposure under "worst conditions" is small. Note, also, how low the levels are near the towers where clearances are large and shielding is provided by the tower. The mean of exposure is indeed low. Another factor is also a practical one. We set up minimum clearance criteria, but that does not mean that each span is tailored to provide this minimum clearance. Rather, we utilize a family of towers. We must also allow higher clearances for public highways (63 ft.) and private roads (52 ft.), and we usually have non-uniform land profile. Each of these factors lessens the possibility of getting down to minimum clearance. Figure 6 provides the result of a span-by-span analysis of the entire PASNY line. Note that 2/3 of the line would never get to minimum clearance even should the unrealistic "worst case" weather and load conditions occur. Thus it can be seen that the probability of exposure to maximum fields is extremely low. strengths of EHV transmission lines and they, as well as we, know when meters are reading accurately or inaccurately. To conclude that their substation standards and regulations, or any other standards or regulations, were based upon widely inaccurate meter readings is conjecture only. (1) (1) See Supplement. The letter of 19 August 1977 from Prof. Tikhodeyev settles completely this question. The other premise upon which this contention was based was measurements reported by Mrs. Young and others utilizing a meter of U.S. manufacture to simulate -- the USSR meter. From these, the 60% value (1/1.6) was derived. This also is a false premise arising from use of these instruments by persons not intimate with the all-important details of the technology involved, paticularly that related to field distortion through proximity effect. That USSR and USA meters do give close results was proven by two separate sets of tests conducted by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) under the supervision of Dr. T. Daniel Bracken and utilizing an actual USSR meter. The first was conducted on March 27, 1974, at the BPA 500 kV Keeler Substation. Three meters were compared: i The Polytek utilized at EPRI/ERDA Project UHV, 2s The Russian meter with a short (250 mm) handle, a The BPA designed meter. Comparing the results of tests which were conducted simultaneously with all three meters together such that they had the same exposure, proves the average difference between the Russian and Polytek meters to be +10% for the Russian meter with respect to readings taken at 5 feet (1.5 meters) above ground and the meters each held at 3 feet away from the observer's body. Additionally, the readings of the Polytek meter held 5 feet from the observer's body were the same as the readings obtained from the same meter at 3 feet from the body for all distances 10 feet through 50 feet from the centerline of the 500 kV bus of the previous set of readings. The second test was conducted by BPA July 9-11, 1974, at Portland, Oregon, under energized BPA lines and is described in Dr. Bracken's IEEE Paper F75 573- 6, entitled, "Field Measurements and Calculations of Electrostatic Effects of Overhead Transmission Lines." This test compared, again, the Polytek meter, the Russian meter, and the BPA meter. All readings of all meters were taken at approximately one meter above ground and the field test and laboratory Measurements showed that the readings of all three meters were within 10% of each other. Laboratory calibration readings of the Russian meter ranged from +10% to -3% of the readings of the other two meters. Comparing the Russian meter with the Polytek meter, the field measurement results show an average difference of only +7% for the Russian meter. Also, field measurements reported in USSR literature are generally about 2% higher than those of the USA because USSR readings are taken at 1.8 mvs. 1.0 min the USA. From this and later discussion, it can be seen that measurements of USA and USSR meters are essentially the same. Thus, contention that they are not is pure speculation based on erroneous premises, coupled with an overwhelming desire to discredit rather than to establish fact. Futhermore, the Russian engineers are intelligent. They know, as well as we, how to compute field J - 6 > similar lines in the USA. The PASNY 765 kV gradients are limited to less than 10 kV/m under worst conditions whereas in the USSR they may go as high as 24 kV/m with a normal range of 10 to 20 kV/m. COMPARISON OF USA AND USSR VOLTAGE GRADIENT METERS Having lost, when confronted with fact and cross-examination, a myriad of spurious claims, the anti-electric energy forces are now resorting to an attempt to show that American engineers are presenting a distorted picture of voltage gradients existing in the USSR. They say that U.S. engineers are taking measurements in such a way that U.S. measured values are only about 60% of what would be obtained by the Russian technique, that a reading of 6.2 kV by the U.S. method would be 10 kV/m by the USSR. From this, they contend that guides for exposure derived in the USSR as a result of complaints of substation workers were based upon USSR measuring techniques and that, therefore, standards in the USA should be lower because of U.S. measuring techniques. The result would be as follows: Permissible Duration USSR_kV/m USA kV/m In Minutes oD 3.1 Unlimited 10 6.2 180 15 9.3 90 20 12.4 10 25 15.5 5 This contention was first advanced by Mrs. Louise B. Young in early 1974 in a communication to the Federal EPA and, subsequently, in her published talk at the First National Symposium on Environmental Concerns in Rights-of-Way Management at Mississippi State University in January, 1976. It began with a major premise that there was a difference by a factor of two or more between the electric field gradient levels measured under both 500 kV and 750 kV lines in the USSR and those measured in the U.S. by American engineers. That is 22 kV/m in the USSR vs. 9-12 in the USA. This premise derived from a completely erroneous interpretation of the 1972 CIGRE Paper 23-06 (Korobkova et al). This premise is totally erroneous because the data of Paper 23-06 is clearly stated as being for substations, not lines. What is referred to in the Young articles as "roads" under 750 kV lines with maximum levels of 22 kV/m, and under the outer conductor of a 500 kV line with levels to 23 kV/m are, in fact, the footpaths between bays of switchyards. That the so-called lines are actually busses is clearly illustrated in CIGRE Paper 23-06 in Figure 6, captioned, "Screen above a footpath," and in Figure 4, captioned, "Dependence of intensity on distance to live parts of equipment and busses." Oddly enough, similar effects were not reported by Russian workers dealing with transmission lines of the same voltage, or by the general public exposed to these transmission lines. This was discussed at length at Washington, D.C., in February of 1975, during the meeting of the USA-USSR group cooperating on the exchange of high voltage transmission technology. The approach of Russian engineers to transmission design criteria is realistic.(1) They candidly state that medical proof is missing and they, therefore, base their judgment on operating experience. Their 150,000 km/yrs. experience with 500 and 750 kV, without complaint or deleterious effect on the populace, is convincing proof for them. Clearances to earth of transmission lines in Russia are less than those in the USA, with the result that voltage gradients actually are higher there. That USSR lines do pass over housing is illustrated in the photograph in Figure 2 taken in Bratsk in 1976. Farming under 750 kV lines also is permitted. ("Where there are orchards, vineyards, etc., it is not mandatory to clear," Zelichanko et al, Washington, 1975.) The Russians presented a wide number of computer-derived families of curves of voltage gradients for typical lines in the USSR. They also advised that 750 kV is being discontinued-they have less than 1000 miles in service-in favor of 1150 kV because the additional power transfer capacity of 1150 kV will better suit their future system needs. The same allowable gradients used for 750 kV will be continued for 1150 kV. Figure 3 presents three curves of lateral distribution of voltage gradients under 800 kV class lines at maximum sag conditions. ie The first is that provided at Washington for a USSR 750 kV line. Ze The second is the same USSR line as calculated by the computer program used in the design of the PASNY 765 kV line. SI The third is for the actual PASNY 765 kV line. Its voltage gradient is less than for the Russian line because of having more clearance to earth, and because its closer phase spacing permits better cancellation of the electric fields of the individual phases and thus further lowers the voltage gradient. From this and much other evidence, it can readily be seen that electric field stresses of transmission lines in the USSR are greater than those of (1) Influence of the Electric Field in 500 and 750 kV Switchyards on Maintenance Staff and Means for its Protection by V.P. Korobkova, Yu. A. Morozov, M.D. Stolarov & Yu. A. Yakub (USSR). (2) Proceedings of the Symposium on EHV AC Power Transmission of the Joint American - Soviet Committee on Cooperation in the Field of Electric Energy, Washington, D.C., February 17-27, 1975. (Copies of key papers available upon request to Chas. T. Main, Inc., Prudential Center, Boston, Mass. 02199, Attn: Howard C. Barnes.) J-4 While I am not a medical expert, I have been involved for a long time in discussions with medical experts around the world on most aspects of electrical safety. The medical profession, despite all the static of researchers and self- styled experts, knows virtually nothing about the health effects of electric fields. They know, as everyone knows, that direct contact with electric wires can kill you, but they know substantially nothing about the subtle effects of electrostatic fields, electromagnetic fields, or of the combination of these (the real case) in quasi-electrostatic-magnetic fields, or of the minor currents that flow in the body as a result of these fields. Therein lies the engineers' problem: what researchers don't know must automatically be bad. It's sort of a flat-earth syndrome, the world was flat until proven to be round. So electrical effects are bad until proven otherwise. What the world needs is a bio-electrical Christopher Columbus. The basic problem, of course, is that people are naturally fearful of electricity and of the great unsolved medical mystery of today-cancer. They have just cause for their concerns and, therefore, they are readily susceptible to scare tactics, particularly when their children are involved. The general public is realistic in realizing that there is risk in everything in life, but I'm afraid they do not fully recognize the benefits of electric energy or the risk of its not being available. In regard to electrical safety, there are more people killed each year by 110 volt shocks in the home than have ever been killed in the total history of EHV systems. Actually, as can be seen in Figure 1, the records substantiate that only one lineman and no substation worker has been killed by EHV in its entire history. The reduction in loss of life of electrical workers made by progressing to EHV is dramatic, for which we are thankful. These savings in life extend also to the general public. Some of the vividly unpleasant memories of my career stem from reports of death, often of several members of a _ family, resulting from contact of well casings, TV antennas, etc., with distribution and medium voltage transmission, and of the death or maiming of children as a result of their climbing the structures associated with these lower voltages and more readiy accessible lines. The greater size and spacings of EHV lines has essentially eliminated these unfortunate occurrences. To adequately treat in depth our subject today, even from the limited extent of my knowledge and experience, would require several volumes as a_ great deal of speculation and emotionalism is involved. Therefore, I will try to expand on only a few of the many technical aspects. U.S.S.R. EXPERIENCE One of the controversies is, of course, an outgrowth of the paper(1) presented by the Russian delegation to the CIGRE Conference in Paris in 1972, which reported that workers in 500 kV and 750 kV substations had suffered ill effects. While it is impossible to prove that these ill effects-weariness, reduction of sexual desire, etc.-did not occur, neither was significant substantiation documented. Also, even the Russians reported that the complaints disappeared after a few days of rest. The book, published in 1977, is a critical review of the existing scientific literature on the effects of electric and magnetic fields, from 0 to 300 hertz, spanning the frequencies at which electric power is generated, transmitted, and used. The basic biophysical principles are discussed, the existing exposures to manmade electromagnetic frequency fields are summarized, and the biological effects of exposure are treated in several categories, including hematological and biochemical effects, effects on bone growth and fracture repair, and physiological and behavioral effects in humans and_ lower animals. The review examines over 200 papers from the journals of many nations and disciplines. It provides also an excellent bibliography of literature pertinent to the subject. Asher R. Sheppard is National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences Fellow at the Brain Research Institute, UCLA, and Merril Eisenbud is Professor and Director of the Laboratory for Environmental Studies at the Institute of Environmental Medicine, New York University Medical Center. The book is an example of a positive result of cooperation between concerned utility engineers and realistic scientists. American Electric Power Co. (AEP) provided Dr. Eisenbud with funds to initiate a study of existing literature on health effects of electric fields. This made it possible to bring on board Dr. Sheppard. The result of this initial effort was so encouraging that full funding was provided by NIEHS and the book is a report of these efforts. The book does not provide all the answers, but it does bring into perspective the various controversies. I expect to refer often to the summations in this book. Perhaps this is because it refers frequently to publications of what I refer to as the Johns Hopkins Group that studied the health of high voltage linemen under the sponsorship of AEP. The group was headed by the great Dr. Kouwenhoven and included Drs. Singewald, Langworthy, and Knickerbocker, also of Johns Hopkins, and Harold Rorden and myself for AEP. Even though not perfect, it is the first and only true research project on health effects of electric fields that involved actual human beings exposed under realistic circumstances. It was designed for only one reason: concern for the health and safety of linemen. It was not a response to the environmental fad. Dr. Kouwenhoven later won the Lasker Award for Medical Research in recognition of his work in analysis of the electrical systems of the human body and of his contributions to heart surgery and electrical safety. Let me, at this time, make clear that I am an electrical engineer, not a medical doctor or biophysicist. Therefore, I would not qualify as a medical expert. But, as can be seen in the PSCNY Order 76-12, the testimony presented by me and by Louis Cohen of Hydro-Quebec on actual operating experience did bear considerable weight. Neither of us had great confidence at the time that such would be the case, as it seemed that the objective of the cross-examination was to prove that we were not scientists and therefore that anythng we had to say would have little substance. Let me also make it clear that I am biased, so don't be surprised if my bias shows up in this presentation. But I also strive hard to be forthright. APPENDIX J SOME ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH ASPECTS of EXTRA HIGH VOLTAGE POWER FACILITIES by Howard C. Barnes for Transmission & Substation Design & Operation Symposium at University of Texas, Arlington September 21, 1977 As a prelude to our discussion, I recommend to you three items that I believe should be read by anyone seriously interested in the environmental and health aspects of electric power. These are: ae Opinion No. 76-12, Case 26592, State of New York Public Service Commission; Opinion and Order Authorizing Erection of Support Structure and Conductors Issued June 30, 1976.(1) 2. CIGRE "Excerpts from Deliberations of Study Committee No. 31 - Transmission Systems," Paris, France, August 30-31, 1976.(1) 3: Biological Effects of Electric and Magnetic Fields of Extremely Low Frequency, Sheppard and Eisenbud, N.Y.U. Press, 1977. (A book). The first is the order of the State of New York Public Service Commission (PSCNY) which permitted construction-but not operation-of the 765 kV Tie Line between Canada and New York. The order was based on the findings to date (June 30, 1976) of the Generic Hearings on Health and Safety of 765 kV Transmission, being conducted before the PSCNY on behalf of the Power Authority of the State of New York (PASNY), Applicant for a permit to build the line. The hearings were common also for Rochester Gas and Electric Co. (RGE) and Niagara Mohawk Power Co. (Niagara). Involved was the Department of Environmental Conservation of N.Y. (DEC) and numerous intervenors and interested parties. Since I believe discussing a specific case is more meaningful than discussion of generalities, much of this paper will reflect upon these New York hearings. The second reference covers, in part, deliberations and presentations of the CIGRE Transmission Systems Study Committee at the 1976 Biennial Conference. Mr. Francis X. Wallace, Chief Counsel for PASNY at the New York hearings, presents a status report of the Generic Hearings, and Mr. John Johnson, Assistant General Manager of the State Electricity Commission of Victoria, Australia, describes environmental activities that have led to a critical situation in the power supply industry in Australia. APPENDIX J SOME ENVIRONMENTAL & HEALTH ASPECTS OF EHV energized object, can control his muscles enough to release the object. Current above this level can cause direct physical harm. Consequently, proper safeguard procedures should be adopted. Some of the objects that may present such a hazard in the vicinity of a transmission line are: fences, metal roofs and siding, gutters, irrigation pipelines, vehicles, machinery, and oil pipelines. The last three objects, vehicles, machinery and oil pipelines, are of particular concern in that moving parts in the machinery or structure may not make good contact with each other and, under the influence of high voltage transmission line fields, arcing may occur between them, possibly leading to ignition of combustible vapors in unfavorable conditions. During the design phase of future transmission lines appropriate consideration should be given to: (1) the location of the line with respect to existng equipment and structues, (2) the ground clearance of the conductors to limit electrostatic and electromagnetic fields, and (3) suitable grounding practices. Effects on Pacemakers Under certain circumstances,the fields produced by high voltage transmission lines, within the right-of-way, can interfere with the operation of cardiac pacemakers. It should be pointed out that this interference has been found to be no greater than a number of comparable hazards to which pacemaker wearers are commonly exposed such as radio transmitters, microwave ovens, and electric shavers. Most pacemakers are now designed to withstand this interference by shifting their mode of operation. Since pacemakers are regularly replaced about every two years, all those presently installed are likely to be of the newer design and are effectively immune to outside interference. Biological Effects The passage of an electric current through any unshielded conductor produces both electric and magnetic fields in the surrounding medium. High voltages produce more intense electric fields that cover wider areas. For overhead ac transmission, the three separate phases create an interference pattern such that the largest ground level magnitude of field, for a flat phase conductor configuration, exists in an area approximately 0 to 15 feet beyond the outer phases of the line. The field magnitude drops off moderately closer to the center of the line and drops off rapidly further away from the line. These relatively low level electric and magnetic fields are not unique to extra high voltage lines but are, in fact, present in all overhead transmission facilities as well as distribution facilities, but to a lesser degree. There has been much controversy in some countries as to the biological effects of these fields. While there is a great amount of research being carried on, there is, so far, no substantial evidence that fields emanating from electrical transmission facilities are detrimental to health. iy - 13 ozone mainly during foul weather corona activity. It is then, however, that ambient ozone levels are the lowest. No authority has predicted significantly adverse effects resulting from the low levels of ozone generated by high voltage transmission facilities. Electric and Magnetic Field Effects Overhead high voltage transmission lines generate electrostatic and electromagnetic fields. Unlike corona, these fields are present under normal operating conditions and additional design considerations frequently must be imposed in order to avoid exposing the general public to the possible adverse effects created by these fields. The electrostatic and electromagnetic field magnitudes are proportional to the transmission line's voltage and current respectively. The major factors which influence the magnitudes of these fields are the line design parameters (principally the conductor-to-ground clearance). Induced Electric Shocks If a conducting object, insulated from ground, is placed in an electric field, a charge and resulting voltage will be induced on the object. The magnitude of charge that is induced will be proportional to the surface area of the object, the strength of electric field, and the object's height above ground. A grounded person touching the charged object will act as a current path from it to ground. Under conditions typical of the many EHV transmission lines existing around the world, the discharge current is not even perceptible to the grounded person and has not been demonstrated to be harmful. Current from stationary objects near the transmission line such as wire fences or buildings made of metal, can be eliminated through simple grounding procedures. The effects of charges induced onto vehicles and other movable conducting objects traversing the right-of-way, can be reduced to acceptable levels through adoption of minimal conductor-to-ground clearance standards which take into consideration the type and size of vehicle or other movable objects which may be using the right-of-way. The use of grounding chains or straps on non-stationary objects can eliminate the effect of the discharge current on any person touching the object. If a conducting object, grounded at one end, is placed in a magnetic field, a voltge will be induced between ground and the opposite end. The magnitude of voltage will be proportional to length of the object, the object height above the ground, and the strength of the magnetic field. A grounded person touching the object on the open end will act as a current path from it to ground. Magnetically induced current in stationary objects can also be eliminated through simple grounding procedures. Magnetically included currents in vehicles and other non-stationary objects do not present any real danger due to the limitation of their strength. Tests under experimental conditions designed to produce extreme effects have shown that the electrical discharge current magnitudes associated with high voltage transmission lines can be above threshold perception and, in the most unfavorable combination of circumstances, even approach "let-go" levels. The "let-go" level is the maximum current level at which a human, holding an I= 12 the number, size, and spacing of subconductors in the bundle), and weather condtions. Audible Noise High voltage transmission lines produce audible noise during periods of inclement weather -- rain, snow, or fog. In wet conditions, water drops impinging or collecting on the conductor surface produce a large number of corona discharges, each of which creates a burst of noise. The noise may interfere with sleep or speech and according to some authorities also may cause annoyance simply by reason of being there. It is clear, from previous records of EHV circuits, that the noise would not be of sufficient magnitude to cause temporary or permanent damage to the ears. It is now generally accepted that audible noise, while not desirable, is definitely not a health hazard, even with economically practical designs. Audible noise effects may be moderated either by design modifications, such as larger conductors or a greater number of conductors per phase, or through changes in operating conditions such as restrictions on operating voltage, or the establishment of a protective zone extending beyond the normal line right-of-way. Within that zone residences might be restricted or excluded. The audible noise conditions prevail only within or close by the right-of-way and only at times of adverse weather conditions. Radio and Television Interference Other possible consequences of corona discharges are radio interference and television interference. Corona discharges are pulsatory in nature and may contain frequency components which are in the MHz range. The electromagnetic fields created by these corona discharges can cover a considerable portion of the radio and television frequency band. Consequently, they can occasionally produce radio and television interference. The magnitude of the interference depends on such factors as line geometry, weather conditions, distance from the transmission line, and the communication receiving device. While it is economically prohibitive to build EHV transmission lines that produce no radio or television interference, reduction may be accomplished either by increasing the size of the subconductor or by increasing the number of conductors per bundle. Since the degree of annoyance associated with the interference depends on the strength of the radio or TV signal at the receiving point, reception can also be improved by special antennas or other means at the receiver. It should be noted that here also radio and television interference is generally at a maximum during adverse weather conditions. Loose hardware on _ substation equipment or on transmission towers can also produce interference especially in the television frequency spectrum. However, this source of interference can usually be controlled by careful construction practices. Ozone Ozone is a triatomic form of oxygen (0 ) which, in sufficiently high concentrations, can irritate the respiratory system and produce other adverse effects in animals and plants. It occurs naturally in the atmosphere as a result of lightning activity. High voltage transmission lines generate some r= 11 Site configuration and arrangement should consider the following: c Visual appearance = Operation and maintenance requirements = Security Ca Public health and safety HEALTH AND SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS A discussion of environmental considerations in the design and location of transmission lines and substations would be incomplete without some mention of the electrostatic, electromagnetic, and corona-related effects of such facilities. In some countries these effects have become controversial issues in recent years. Generally, the effects are categorized as: 1. Corona-Related Effects Audible noise Radio noise Ozone 10 |o*|@ In Electric and Magnetic Field Effects Induced electric shocks Effects on pacemakers 5 Biological effects 10 |o*|@ While all of these effects are present, to some degree, in the neighborhood of transmission lines at any voltage level, the electrostatic and corona-related effects can be more significant at EHV levels. A brief discussion of each of these effects follows, along with a statement of their significance with respect to the design, location, and operation of transmission lines and _ substations. Additional information may be found in Appendix J. Corona-Related Effects Under certain conditions, a transmission line can be a source of audible noise, radio interference, television interference, and ozone. An irregularity on a conductor surface, such as a drop of water or particle of dust, can become the point source of corona discharges. The electrical breakdown of air in this region generates audible noise, radio interference, television interference, and ozone as well as a power loss that must be supplied by the system. The major factors which influence these effects are line design parameters (principally T= 0 Construction High voltage switchyard and substation facilities are a very essential part of a transmission system development program and their construction should be handled accordingly. Care should be taken to insure that they are constructed according to contract documents and on schedule with related work. Switchyard construction, in particular, must be coordinated with the construction of generating facilities, and substations with the high voltage and low voltage distribution lines; thus individuals responsible for their construction should be aware of other work and coordinate their activities accordingly. All care and concerns discussed earlier in this appendix with respect to transmission lines should also be exercised. Operation and Maintenance Operation and maintenance of high voltage switchyards and substations will vary from facility to facility. The larger facilities may be manned while the smaller facilities will rely on automated operation and service by off-site Maintenance personnel. The operation and maintenance program for each facility should take these factors into account. Microwave Facilities Microwave radio transmission is a means often chosen for communication, and transmission of data and signals for the operation of protection and switching apparatus in high voltage power systems. Environmental aspects of the application of microwave facilities are included in this section for consideration in the event that this means of communication and control is used in the power system being developed. The placement and design of microwave facilities are traditionally a communication engineer's function and should continue to be so. It is his responsibility to select the proper equipment, insure that it does not interfere with other communication patterns, and to see that it is safe from the viewpoint of aircraft traffic patterns. From an environmental point of view, some of the basic siting principals that should be observed are as follows: oe With all other factors being equal, select the less visually sensitive locations. = Check to see that development planned by others will not interfere with these facilities or their intended purpose. - Make sure that proposed sites are of sufficient size to accommodate all appurtenant facilities. If the tower is to be guyed, then sufficient space should be acquired to place guy anchors, etc. = Sites should not be exposed to adverse climatic conditions. of environmental personnel working closely with engineering and utility management personnel to recommend the ultimate configuration. All design concepts are, of course, the responsibility of the engineer working closely with system planning personnel. In selecting switchyard and substation design configuration for a particular location, consideration should be given to the following guidelines: = Be absolutely sure that the materials and design configurations under consideration meet all immediate and long-range system planning criteria. on Check materials under consideration to see if they can meet all site climatic conditions. S Determine if materials under consideration are available within the time sequence scheduled for construction. = Determine if there are any unusual problems in transporting materials under consideration to the site. = Determine if there are any unusual design, construction, operational and maintenance problems associated with any particular material under consideration. = Determine a site arrangement which is most compatible with its surrounding environment through its intended life. I Determine a site arrangement which offers the best solution from a public health and safety point of view. - Select control building designs which are both functional and in harmony with adjacent architecture. The final design of switchyard and substation facilities including control buildings should consider the following: = Color arrangement. - Ultimate site layout needs. = Ultimate arrangement of incoming (high voltage) and outgoing (lower voltage) transmission lines. = Ultimate civil site layout needs including bay arrangement, foundations, underground equipment, access, erosion and drainage control, lighting and security fencing. o Landscaping. - General overall appearance. factors that should be considered in siting new switchyard and substation facilities are as follows: = Selection of site locations which represent the most environmentally compatible and economical solution for supporting the high voltage and subtransmission and distribution systems. r Selection of site locations which are of sufficient size to accommodate immediate and long-range needs. = Recognition of the fact that the site should have the ability to accommodate all planned immediate and future high voltage transmission lines and all necessary subtransmission and distribution circuits. a That the site does not interfere with planned facilities or development of others. G That the site is not sacrificed to the development of others. = Line entrance accessibility from as many directions as possible. Operational integrity should not be compromised; once a site has been selected that meets the preceding parameters, then attention should be given to construction, operational and maintenance details, including the following: = Will site development cause continuing problems such as security and upkeep? = Can materials and construction equipment be easily transported to the site now and in the future? = Is the site compatible with planned development of others, with respect to visual appearance, noise, and traffic? a Can the site be easily reached in times of planned and unscheduled outages? - Is the site, per se, acceptable to all responsible systems and engineering personnel? Design A variety of materials and configurations may be utilized in the design of high voltage switchyard and substation facilities. Normally they range from conventional lattice configurations to the more modern, low profile, tubular steel arrangements. Recently, consideration has been given to enclosed SF6 station facilities particulary where adverse weather conditions, insulation contamination, or environmental sensitivity is a factor. Under a normal procedure, qualified engineering personnel determine what design options are available and can meet prescribed systems criteria, and it is the responsibility maintenance program can also save time, effort and money as well as enhance the line's operational integrity. In desert environment, measures to control contamination of insulators and thus insure electrical insulation strength must receive major consideration. Scheduled right-of-way, structure, hardware, insulation, and conductor inspections can often identify problems before damage occurs, which, in turn, can reduce unnecessary adverse environmental effects. Scheduled maintenance activities can increase the life of the line and keep the facility looking well kept, while saving money. From an environmental point of view, the longer a facility lasts, the longer its benefits can be realized. SWITCHYARDS AND SUBSTATIONS Switchyards and substations are the terminal facilities for the power transmission and distribution lines, and are the focal point of new high voltage transmission systems. They are the location of equipment for switching and protection of the transmission lines and for necessary voltage transformation in the system, either step-up or step-down, at generating plants, load centers, and interconnection points. In general, their locations must be determined before transmission line routing studies can begin. While switchyard site locations are normally a function of, and determined as part of, the generation site selection process, substation locations should be determined based on the immediate and long-range needs of the load centers served. The following parts of this section describe some of the environmental factors that should be considered in selecting the sites and determining the design, construction, operation, and maintenance needs for switchyard and substation facilities. For a typical substation outline, see Exhibit I-4. Coordination A coordinated effort between utility, government, and private sector personnel, as described earlier in this section, is all-important in the selection of sites for high voltage switchyard and substation facilities, since their location determines the terminal locations for transmission line routes. While system planning personnel and their studies can define the load centers to be served, it is not usually within the scope of planning studies to determine specific site locations. This is the joint responsibility of engineering and environmental personnel. They, however, cannot and should not do this without the benefit of comments from, and cooperation of, all parties responsible for the country's growth. An inadequately planned facility will hinder, rather than serve, growth objectives. Siting Persons responsible for the siting of new substation facilities, in particular, should pay full attention to all intended needs. A substation serves two principal functions: one, as a terminal location for high voltage transmission, and two, as the beginning point for the subtransmission and distribution systems. Substation facilities, even in carefully planned transmission systems, seem to attract new and even unplanned transmission lines for they are a natural place to start when adjustments must be made to serve unexpected load growth. Therefore, flexibility to allow for future growth is important. Some of the i=" 6 Construction of a new high voltage transmission line cannot just happen -- it must be a carefully planned activity. Logically, people experienced in construction procedures should participate in the initial planning, design, and route selection process. It is common practice to prepare environmentally oriented construction guidelines well in advance of the final design and line layout work effort. Final agreed-upon environmental measures and conditions should be incorporated in the construction contract documents. It should be pointed out that construction review should not be limited to the work site. Proper consideration must also be given to the receipt and storage of materials and their transport to the work site. Oftentimes, lack of attention to these details can result in unnecessary delays, additional costs and adverse environmental effects. It is recommended that a conceptual construction program be prepared for each new transmission line facility containing as a minimum, the quantities of materials to be used, storage locations, anticipated delivery dates, the method of construction and a _ schedule showing the construction sequence according to each activity to be performed. The actual construction process should be phased so that all work is done in a timely fashion. For example, if construction access roads and related facilities are required in some locations to serve the foundation work, they should be planned accordingly. The same may be said for delivery of materials to each site. A well organized construction activity that reflects future operational and maintenance needs will save time and money and will result in less adverse environmental impact than will a modest program or no program at all. A well organized construction program should, however, not place undue constraints on the contractor. He should be allowed certain work flexibilities that aid construction progress as long as they are reasonable and can be accomplished in an acceptable manner. These flexibilities can best be judged on a site-specific basis during actual construction by persons familiar with intended environmental objectives. General construction guidelines which may be well to consider are as follows: oS Use equipment of suitable type, size and capacity which will accomplish the work in the most effective manner. In this regard, there is no substitute for experience. = Restore work areas around structure sites to insure foundation integrity. = Stablize structure sites subject to wind erosion. = Exercise judgement in unavoidable sensitive areas or in other areas which may be affected by construction. - Leave the right-of-way in a condition that best serves future operation and maintenance needs. Operation and Maintenance A properly developed and implemented transmission line operation and maintenance program is the only assurance of the perpetuation of environmental benefits sought in the pre-construction and construction process. A well organized i= 5) = Determine which design option is the best suited to overall conditions which exist or are expected to exist in the region involved. = Select those areas where a second option may be better suited to meet local conditions. = Determine if a second option is suitable from a system, design, construction, operational and maintenance standpoint. a Prepare general design guidelines for locating structures with respect to varied terrain conditions, highway crossings, developed land crossings and for meeting other situations where environmental judgement is warranted. a Determine and review line layout drawings generally to insure that all intended environmental criteria are met. = Submit line layout drawings to interested parties for final review if overall or specific site conditions dictate. Structure configurations generally available in the 138 to 500 kV class are as indicated in Exhibits I-1 and I-2. Generally, at the 138 kV level, a wide variety of materials are available and many configurations may be utilized; at the 230kV level, configurations are more limited with steel and wood the principal material, although prestressed concrete may be considered. At the 500 kV level, configurations are limited to only three or four basic configurations and steel, whether lattice or tubular, is the only proven material. The following factors should be considered in selecting the final materials to be utilized: - Strength - Availability = Cost = Appearance - Design limitations - Operational and maintenance needs Construction As pointed out in the U.S. Department of Interior brochure, "Environmental Criteria for Electric Transmission Systems:" "The best environmental planning can be reversed or defeated by uncontrollble construction activities." a Obtain all data necessary to the final routing effort, including topographic mapping, aerial photographs, and development plans by others. A list of all constraints and limitations should be prepared and used as a check against each routing proposal. In selecting the final transmission alignment in sensitive locations, consideration should also be given to the following: 7 Local terrain and existing and proposed land use conflicts. = Compatibility with established or planned utility, or transportation facilities, including airports. a Visual effect and relationship to areas of designated cultural value. 7 Visual appearance. a Major highway crossings. 7 Construction options. - Operational and maintenance requirements. - Cost. Design To date little data is available relative to high voltage transmission line design options from an environmental point of view. While much has been said and accomplished with respect to visual appearance of transmission structures, generally, very little is available with respect to specific or reasonable options for a specific high voltage class in terms of reliability, availability, and cost. For example, there are many more structure types available for the 138 kV class than there are for the 500 kV class. In addition, some of the more modern, aesthetically pleasing structures are designed for specific climatic conditions and therefore are not readily available or suitable for use in some areas of the world. Selection of structure options to meet specific conditions should be based solely on sound engineering judgement; the role of the environmental experts should be limited to the selection of that option that best meets site conditions. A structure type that best satisfies system and regional conditions should be selected as the basis for initial environmental assessment consideration. If, in some locations, it is not deemed the most suitable for use, then the site should be assessed on the basis of available options. No final solution should be made until all possible system, design, construction, operational and maintenance implications have been successfully assessed. Some of the more important factors that should be considered in the design of a high voltage transmission line are as follows: = Determine which design options are available and applicable to the specific line in question. responsible for transmission line routing, however, cannot ignore operation and maintenance needs. The system importance and size of the line may dictate that it be readily accessible for maintenance in times of a forced and/or scheduled outage. A full understanding of the operational and maintenance standards established for each facility is necessary to answer these questions. Some of the more important steps required in the routing of new high voltage transmission lines are as follows: = Obtain all necessary data with respect to system requirements and the location of terminal facilities. For example, in many countries a significant consideration will be the location of terminals and routing of lines to avoid, whenever possible, serious insultion contamination conditions. = Obtain all necessary engineering data with respect to facility design requirements. Particular attention should be given to optional designs available, their flexibility in terms of height, span and appearance, and cost. ci Obtain all necessary data relevant to the construction requirements for each available design. = Obtain all necessary data relevant to applicable operational and maintenance practices to be in effect once the line is completed. = Scan the region between prescribed terminal facilities to determine apparent broad terrain and land use characteristics and to identify obvious environmental constraints. = Prepare preliminary routing arrangement or arrangements based on available data and substantiated by limited ground and aerial investigation. = Identify agencies and private sectors having an apparent or obvious interest in the region involved in preliminary routing arrangements. = Prepare a preliminary project synopsis supported by conceptual engineering data and map references as a basis for discussion with interested parties. = Meet with all interested agencies and private parties to inform them of intended development and to obtain data relevant to the final routing arrangement. a Document all pertinent data relevant to final routing arrangement. = Prepare a routing methodology, including procedures to be followed and personnel involved. APPENDIX I ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS INTRODUCTION This appendix is intended to be used as a general guide in considering the environmental apsects of the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of high voltage transmission lines and_ stations. The criteria described are representative of those already published for use in the United States. These guidelines provide acceptable environmental options, taking into account such factors as past experience, safety, reliability of service, state-of-the-art, and national planning objectives. Transmission Lines The planning of a new high voltage transmission line to insure that it will cause minimal environmental impact requires the careful coordination of many disciplines. While system planning studies express immediate and long-term transmission needs in terms of load, voltage, and capacity; engineering studies are necessary to translate this data into specific terminal locations, number of circuits, size of conductors, design criteria, and costs. While these studies and supporting design efforts can, and have, produced very adequate high voltage transmission lines, it is increasingly evident from experience elsewhere that other governmental entities should be involved if the lines are to be built in environmental harmony with programs of others and reflect overall long-range objectives. Assuming environmental compatibility coordination of the transmission system design, construction, and operation with environmental criteria is necessary. Routing A proper routing methodology for transmission lines should strike a balance between visual considerations, terrain suitability, and impacts on existing and future land use needs. In some instances, their presence near traveled ways and populated locations represents the most compatible and best solution from an overall point of view. For example, a presently barren area, away from existing development, may seem to be the best location, but it may not be in the future if it was found that this area was slated for ultimate development as a high density residential area, industrial complex, or for agricultural betterment through irrigation. Transmission line routing methodology also should not overlook all designs, construction, and operational needs. While some terrain and land use conditions may readily accommodate the highest voltage lines, these same conditions may be in direct conflict with the shorter spans and lower ground clearances and smaller structures of the lower voltage lines. These considerations normally go "hand-in-hand" with complexity and flexibility of design and ease of construction, both in terms of time and cost. Those APPENDIX I ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS Socio-economics In order to complete an assessment of the environmental considerations for hydroelectric facilities it is necessary to discuss the effect on local socio- economic development in relation to labor, housing, local industry and public services. This entails presenting the influences on the community growth patterns and land development of such items as a large work force operating in the area, taxes paid by the plant, relocations of families or businesses, use of local services, need for housing and allocation of land. While other environmental considerations exist such as waste disposal, air quality, and use of resources for operation, the above described significant environmental considerations are most commonly addressed. The successful assessment of these considerations will assure the proper facility is being developed. H - 11 which occur in the region, for instance, is the area used by fish for spawning or as a nursery. A discussion of technologies available to prevent impingement of fish in turbines is included in the ecological assessment. Water Quality and Hydrology Studies to define the criteria for flood inundation, water supply and water quality are necessary for assuring public safety, as well as the quality of potable water supplies and fisheries environment. Studies to determine levels of pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity and turbidity are critera necessary to determine water quality. It is also part of this consideration to analyze nutrients, trace organics and sediment levels in order to estimate new deposition levels often caused by an impoundment. Soils, Geology and Topography A major environmental consideration in a hydroelectric facility is geological conditions. It is necessary to indicate the probability of the occurrence of geological hazards such as erosion and earthquakes and the possibility of changes in soil conditions after construction. Sufficient detail to geologic features and regional topography is a major portion of this analysis. Land Use Land features and uses must be described in order to assess changes which can occur with the development of a hydroelectric facility. Characteristics of a region that influence area development are also analyzed. These characteristics are most often related to uses for fisheries, agriculture, business, industry, recreation, residence, transportation corridors and wildlife. Land use data is then used as the basis for assessing the effects of construction and operation of a plant. Irrigation There are several considerations to address when assessing the impact of developing a multipurpose hydroelectric and irrigation project. Of major importance is the study of water quality before and after passage through the project. This is necessary in order to determine levels of pesticides or fertilizers which might eventually enter the water supply. Leaching also can occur as a result of disposal of agricultural wastes such as straw from rice. Another environmental consideration concerns the loss of fish and wildlife habitat which results from land clearing for irrigation. Unique Features All unique or unusual features of the area, including historical, archaeological and scenic sites and values are described in order to mitigate potential impacts of construction on these features. This description consists of a site inventory, an evaluation of site significance and an evaluation of possible project impacts. H - 10 criteria, in which dark areas are unsuitable and lighter areas are most suitable for the location of the site. The previously defined three levels of assigned weights are developed by consensus of various interest groups. These groups could include, but not be limited to representatives of the nation's regulatory agency, the utility involved, and the consultant. The physical data stored in the computer's data base and the input weighting values are combined by the program to develop a ranking of sites based on their site suitability indices. An illustration of this methodology is shown in Exhibit H-6. The variables are rated from zero to ten, their impacts on the tasks are determined by the Level 1 weights, the tasks' influences on the criteria by the Level 2 weights, and the criteria's contribution to the overall index are calculated using Level 3 weights. In this way, each square of the grid is evaluated and the program searches for the necessary number of squares having the greatest index value. Furthermore, it compares the potential sites with each other to develop a ranking of the most desirable candidate sites. Outputs from CDAS may include, among other considerations, a composite or any "group of interest" preference map, physical data maps, any combination of physical variables, tabular presentations of site indices and regional impacts. A partial list of regional impacts that could be tabulated includes acres of agricultural land affected, population within a given distance of the site, and number and types of structures within the candidate site. The individual groups' weights can be used to test the sensitivity of the siting decision to different viewpoints. Viewpoints of the utility engineering staff and of the nation's regulatory representatives are two of several which could be examined in this way. HYDROELECTRIC GENERATION In addition to many of the considerations detailed above for thermal powerplants, several other environmental considerations must be addressed when assessing the impact of a hydroelectric facility on a particular region. In order to successfully identify environmental components potentially sensitive to project development, it is necessary to provide an overall description of the existing conditions or resources. After identifying these components, measures to enhance the environment or to avoid or mitigate adverse effects will properly address project impact. A description of the most significant environmental considerations commonly addressed follows. Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecology A thorough inventory of the species which exist in an area involves the identification of both rare and endangered species as well as those necessary in the food chain or for commercial purposes. The disruption of water flow or the inundation of a large area can mean the loss of habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. Also important is an analysis of the specific activities H-9 In addition to the two aforementioned methodologies, there are statistical alternatives, other than ranking of potential sites. Discussion of Alternative Methodologies General A suitable methodology for analysis and ranking of sites must evaluate discernible quantitative differences among the sites and substantiate the results. The evaluation process should allow inputs from various viewpoints, permit the rapid assessment of new judgements, and possess sensitivity analysis capability. The procedure should provide good graphic and tabular presentations of the results. Overlay Method The overlay method involves the use of transparent overlays which show the degree of the impact of the siting factors by a difference in tone. For example, a steep terrain would be represented by a dark area as an undesirable feature while progressively lighter shades would show increasingly improving conditions approaching a level terrain. The general procedure would be to combine trasparencies representing different factors on scaled maps (1:24,000) of potential sites and visually select the lightest areas as candidate sites, and potentially recommended sites for the project. Ranking is accomplished by judging the tone difference. Computerized Data Analysis System (CDAS) The CDAS method is employed as follows: The areas designated as potential sites are first gridded to spatially allocate the collected data concerning the physical variables, as indicated in Exhibit H-2. Ratings are assigned to the physical variables withn each square of the grid. These ratings are based on the data collected from maps, literature and other sources. Ratings will range from zero to ten - with ten being the most desirable and zero undesirable. Exhibit H-3 shows a typical data map for a potential site, a gridded data map, inputting, storage and analysis of a physical variable, and a typical computer map. The darkest areas are relatively undesirable and the lightest areas most desirable. Three levels of weights are developed to relate: (a) the physical variables within a task (Level 1); (b) the relative influence of the tasks on the criteria (Level 2); and (c) the impact of the criteria on the site suitability index (Level 3). These weightings are usually expressed in percentages, such as_ the technical criteria could contribute 20% to the site suitabiity index, the socioeconomic 40%, and the environmental 40% (Level 3 weightings). A set of criteria and tasks as well as an illustration for Level 3 weightings are presented in Exhibit H-4. The results of the weighting process are shown graphically on Exhibit H-5; the factors could be physical variables, tasks, or H= 8 A site selection process should advance through a series of stages which in the final phase allows identification of a proposed site from either a national or site region of interest. The siting methodology should commence with a survey of a region of interest to the power ministry and that, after identifying areas containing possible sites, eliminates those whose less desirable characteristics are recognizable without extensive analysis. As the siting study proceeds through the identification of candidate areas, potential sites, and the proposed sites, the criteria will become increasingly stringent and considers many factors. Siting factors include, but are not limited to, water availabiity, proximity to population centers, seismology, geology, transportation access and other considerations. The purpose of this site selection process is to identify a reasonable number of realistic siting options. To ensure that realistic alternatives are presented, two or more candidate areas may be chosen for detailed comparison with appropriate site-plant combinations. Immediately following identification of a proposed site or sites for the nuclear power station, a report or documentation of the existing procedure should be prepared for future consultation or review. While there are numerous methods of site selection and evaluation which can be utilized in a siting study, it should be recognized that siting factors involved are diverse and complex. Each siting requirement must be evolved based upon characteristics of the area, characteristics of the power authority or agency, and the stage of the siting process. It must be considered that nuclear power plant site selection and evaluation is an evolving process involving a relatively new source of energy for power generation. Accordingly, the need for continued study and updating of these techniques is desirable as industry and government strive to achieve a common goal of locating acceptable and timely sites for nuclear power plants. Alternate Mehtods for Analysis and Ranking of Thermal Generation Site Alternative methodologies are available for the analysis and ranking of candidate sites and potential recommended sites developed during a siting study. These methodologies are defined, discussed and evaluated as a _ basis for selection for a siting study. Methodologies As examples, two methodologies for analyzing data and ranking candidate and potential recommended sites will be described. The first is a refinement of an overlay procedure to include the use of tones to represent the degree of impact of the physical variables considered. The second is a computerized data analysis system (CDAS), a computer-based approach which develops site suitability indices from the ratings of physical variables and weighting (importance) factors applied to those ratings and differential cost estimates. Each procedure is applicable to a group of potential sites which have been identified through an exclusionary overlay procedure. R-~/7 determined by the Ringleman Chart. It is pointed out that, in our best judgement, emission limitations on oxides of sulfur and nitrogen should not be imposed until such time as background levels and/or population density dictate, however, for any fossil-fuel fired installation, space allowances should be provided for backfitting if necessary. The estimates for steam electric stations include an allowance for electrostatic precipitators with the capability of limiting particulate emission to that established by "Standards of Performance for Stationary New Sources." Noise In general, design of utility power plants should be such that interior noise levels do not exceed 90 dbA at a distance of three feet from the noise _ source. This level has been established by the U.S. Occupational Health and Safety Act as being the limit for worker exposure for an eight hour period, and is attainable throughout most of the plant by careful design. In addition, an off-site noise control program should be implemented in order that noise crossing the plant boundaries does not result in community complaints. The objective to be achieved is the identification and attenuation of offensive noise sources such that the addition of the plant will not impose an additional noise burden on the existing community background noise level. Nuclear Industry Related Considerations One of the initial requirements in providing guidance for siting, designing, constructing and operating a nuclear plant is the establishment of a national regulatory body which has the responsibility for the development of pertinent siting regulations and licensing procedures. The mandate of this regulatory commission is the protection of public health and safety. This section of the report reviews various siting considerations and references methods of selection. As an example, existing United States regulatory criteria require that the population density, use of the site environs, and the physical characteristics of the site, including seismology, meteorology, geology, and hydrology, be taken into account in determining the acceptability of a site for a nuclear power reactor. Seismic and geologic site criteria for nuclear power plants are provided in the regulatory criteria which establishes the minimum requirements for the principal design criteria for water-cooled nuclear power plants; a number of these criteria are directly related to site characteristics as well as to events and conditions outside the nuclear power unit. Various site selections methodologies are available which consider the major site characteristics related to public health and safety and environmental issues that a regulator staff considers in determining the sitability of sites for light-water-cooled nuclear power stations. The guidelines may be used by an applicant in identifying suitable candidate sites for nuclear power stations. The decision that a station may be built on a specific candidate site is based on a detailed evaluation of the proposed site-plant combination and a cost- benefit analysis comparing it with alternative site-plant combinations. in the country and not by others. While outside consultants can be retained to perform Tasks 1 through 4 and to make site recommendations, the responsibility for the final selection of each new generating site should be that of the agency. Scheduling Considerations Time is an important consideration in the adoption of any site selection process. The question often arises as to the length of time required for each task and at what point in time can related decisions be made with regard to such details as the preparation of contract documents, ordering of equipment, acquisition of property, etc. The siting process discussed should be accomplished within a time framework of approximately one year, depending naturally on availability, or time required to obtain various items of necessary data and information, survey maps, etc. The initial program will take longer than repeat programs. Completion of Tasks 1 through 3 should take in the order of 2 to 3 months. Task 4 assumes preparation of a "conceptual design" plan which may take in the order of 6 months to complete. Work on this could begin before completion of Task 3. The detailed site investigations required of Task 4 may up to one year to complete initially, but after a system is established, this work could be consolidated somewhat, depending, of course, on the desires of the Ministry. While the initial program will take considerable time to prepare technical, socioeconomic, and environmental criteria and standards, there is every reason to believe that, once prepared, the results will be applicable to future programs. Contracts should not be prepared and equipment ordered until completion of the conceptual engineering plan. Technical Criteria Environmental controls in many countries are not presently as formalized as in the United States or many other countries. It is reasonable to conclude that in the coming years, as various areas become more industrialized, protection of the environment will be a subject of greater interest and importance. Listed below are technical considerations of a number of areas of environmental concern particularly related to thermal power generation facility siting as used in the United States. Thermal Pollution Effluent limitations representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology currently available, as established by paragraph 423.12, U.S. Government, Federal Register, Volume 39, No. 196, have been established as a parameter for use in preparing capital and operating cost estimates. Air Pollution The applicable emission control standards for particulate matter are established by the U.S. Enviromental Protection Agency's "Standards of Performance for Stationary New Sources". This standard limits emission of particulate matter to 0.1 pounds per million Btu heat input and opacity to not greater than 20% as a™ 3 Included below is a list of examples of technical criteria which may be applicable. If nuclear plants become a consideration, then criteria similar to that set forth by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission or other Federal agencies may become applicable, depending, of course, on the position of the country's responsible agency. It is quite reasonable to assume, however, that if nuclear generating plants are eventually built in the subject country the government would establish its own Nuclear Advisory Commission prior to this decision. This Commission would establish technical siting criteria based on applicable criteria formulated in other countries, including that of the United States. As in the case of technical criteria, standards for socioeconomic and environmental considerations should be established by the country's regulatory agency on the basis of long-range national objectives. This criteria-establishing process must consider not only those needs associated with a long range electrification plan, but also those of other national concerns; for example, urban growth needs, both for the domestic and industrial base, must be examined and evaluated as they relate to power generation needs. The same applies to cultural preservation and growth. If a priority can be established for each, then decisions can be reached as to how close to these load centers a power generation plant can be sited without adversely affecting the country's overall growth potential. Once all the criteria are established, then specific siting guidelines can be established for evaluating each potential site. At this point in the siting process, a detailed "“conceptual" plan should be developed so that each potential site may be weighed against a specific site arrangement plan. The detailed conceptual plan should define accurate water consumption needs in terms of both quantity and quality for cooling and for internal plant use; specific fuel requirements and the facilities associated therewith; on-site disposal requirements for flyash, blowdown, and other wastes; specific switchyard and transmission requirements; as well as requirements for plant construction, operation and maintenance, including housing, building equipment, and personnel. On-site investigations leading to the selection of candidate sites should, as a minimum, include extensive surface and subsurface soils and geology investigations; detailed analysis of water intake and discharge structure facility requirements; water quality analysis and investigation; and investigation and analysis of prevailing aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Property availability, as well as its importance for other purposes, should be examined. . It is the standard procedure in the United States to prepare a detailed site analysis format whereby data extracted for one candidate site can be compared with the data extracted from another candidate site or sites so that the final site selected in Task 5 is best from all criteria points of view, including cost. Task 5 - Select Plant Site Perhaps the only explanation necessary to describe this task is to repeat the earlier statement that it should be performed by a centralized agency H-.4 both present and expected, or on lands and water dedicated to other purposes. Environmental criterial may take into consideration such factors as prevailing off-shore marine conditions, major land use constraints, etc. Assembly of his data on one composite map will indicate the geographic region able to accommodate the new plant facility. It is intended that all areas within its limits meet basic siting criteria. Task 3 - Identify Potential Sites As previously stated, a potential site is considered to be any location within the limits of a candidate area which would appear to be capable of accommodating a new generating facility. This task requires a more in- depth scanning of the candidate area to identify specific locations which would appear to have sufficient space, suitable terrain, appropriate water and land access, and other characteristics beneficial to site development. Consideration shuld also be given to potential transmission line corridors as well as basic construction, operation, and maintenance requirements. It should be pointed out that the potential site selection process does not require detailed field investigation; this occurs in the selection of candidate sites from among the potential sites identified. The screening process normally consists of analysis of topographical maps, aerial photographs and other available data with limited on-site verification. Technical criteria applicable to the identification of potential sites would relate to such considerations as adequacy of cooling water sources; space requirements of plant facility, including fuel handling facilities, switchyards, transmission lines, and other appurtenant works; intake and discharge structure requirements; emission control parameters; available access; and general terrain characteristics. Socioeconomic criteria are more specific than in the candidate area selection process and should relate to such factors as existing and proposed’ use of affected lands, existing and proposed population distribution; areas of industrial and/or agricultural significance, as well as those of designated or obvious cultural significance. Consideration should also be given to the availability and general requirements of the construction work force, as well as_ general operational and maintenance requirements. Task 4 - Identify Candidate Sites A candidate site has been previously defined in this report as a site which will accommodate the proposed generating facility within the framework of pre-established technical, socioeconomic, environmental or other criteria as may be established by the regulatory agency, and on the basis of detailed engineering and field analysis of potential sites. Task 4- Identify Candidate Sites A candidate site may be defined as any site which will accommodate the proposed generating facility within the framework of pre-established technical, socioeconomic, environmental or other criteria as may be established by the regulatory agency. Candidate sites are selected on the basis of detailed engineering and field analysis of potential sites. It is normal procedure to rank candidate sites on their overall suitability to accommodate a generating facility of a specific size. Task 5 - Select Final Site The final site selection process should be accomplished through a final analysis of candidate site data by the regulatory agency. While Task 1 through 4 may be prepared by engineering consultants, Task 5 should be the responsibility of the regulatory body or the Ministry to insure that the final site selected meets all intended siting objectives and is best for the country. DETAILED PLAN OF WORK The level of work to be committed to each task of the General Plan of Work depends in part upon the wishes of the regulatory agency. In the United States, all plant siting activities must meet rigid environmental and regulatory criteria. The General Plan of Work, as shown on the bottom line of Exhibit H-1 allows for the introduction of agency imposed criteria at each level of the siting effort. It should be pointed out that these criteria may change from plant to plant and according to when and where it is to be constructed. Some of the more important factors that should be considered in the siting process, by task, are as follows: Task 1 - Define Plant Criteria At the outset of the plant siting effort, priorities for plant construction should be translated into generating plant needs in terms of number and size of units, type of units, cooling water and fuel requirements, and applicable levels of air emissions. Task 2 - Identify Candidate Areas Selection of candidate areas is based on criteria consisting of composite criteria of the technical, socioeconomic and environmental standards imposed on the generating plant by the regulatory agency. With respect to technical criteria, it is normal procedure to establish limits on the distance which the facility will be placed from the load center to be served, the cooling water source, or planned interconnected high voltage transmission system. Seismic conditions are another important consideration. As an example of socioeconomic criteria, the agency may decide to impose specific limitations on areas of high population density, A 2 APPEN H:4 - 06/20/80 APPENDIX H ENVIORNMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS IN SITING OF POWER GENERATION FACILITIES INTRODUCTION An orderly procedure for incorporating environmental consideration into a generation program must be established to translate system requirements into specific site requirements. Discussed below. are the studies which must be undertaken for both thermal and hydro facilities. THERMAL GENERATION The General Plan of Work Exhibit H-1 outlines the tasks that should be considered by a regulatory agency in approving the siting of new generating facilities after system criteria have been established. This plan lists five separate tasks leading to the final site selection process, the middle three of which are comprised of several companion steps. The purpose of the General Plan of Work is to give the agency an opportunity to determine the best site available for each new facility required. The intent and purpose of each task is as follows: ‘Task 1 - Define Plant Criteria In this step, a decision must be reached regarding plant type and size and the load center or centers to be served. This decision is usually based on the latest system data and studies. Task 2 - Identify Candidate Areas Candidate areas may be defined as the broad geographic areas in which the plants should be located to serve their intended purpose. Consideration should be given to availability of cooling water and fuel, as well as distance from the existing or planned interconnected high voltage transmission system serving the specified load centers or centers. Task 3 - Identify Potential Sites Potential sites are identified as those locations within the candidate areas which would appear to be capable of accommodating a new generating facility. Potential sites are normally determined on the basis of apparent available space, distance from cooling water supply, favorable terrain, availability of access, as well as local population density and land use characteristics. This task effort is normally accomplished through analysis of maps, aerial photography, and review of other published data substantiated through minimal field reconnaissance. APPENDIX H ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATONS FOR THERMAL GENERATION to infinity and then brought back to present worth by compound discount at the real interest rate. These present worth values for each year are accumulated as the lower right hand figure on each page. The final present worth figure for the entire plan is shown on the bottom right of the last page for year 2014. This listing indicates the categories being considered for that plan. The second column indicates the MW capacity of each category actually utilized in that year for the particular Plan. It is shown as "O" if the category is not called for in the particular year for that Plan. The third and fourth columns are the forced and maintenance outage rates for each category, generally determined off-line from historical data. The fifth column displays the production cost used for each category as calculated off-line from fuel costs, net plant heat rates, and variable O&M costs. Historical data from FPC reports was used for existing generation. The remaining columns contain output data calculated from the above input data. The Energy (GWH) utilized by each category was determined by dis- patching each against the annual load duration curve in the sequence indicated column 1. The load duration curve is represented in the computer as a fifth order polynomial which is integrated for the various load levels associated with each category to obtain the energy values. The Plant Factor results from energy calculation. The last three columns display the annual cost for production (variable cost), the annual cost of ownership (fixed costs) and total annual cost. Fixed costs common to all plans are omitted to avoid in- flating totals unnecessarily. To accommodate different end-effects of different plans, which always occur at the end of the study period, annual costs were assumed to extend Interpretation of MADCAP Computer Printouts For each MADCAP run there are generally two computer printouts. ts The first printout displays the development patterns of the numerous plans analyzed, arranged in ascending order of numeric present worth of future revenue requirements. Each plan is displayed in a matrix indicating the number of generators of each size, or category, installed and operat- ing in each year of the study period, together with the total calculated cost of owning and operating that plan. In these matrices, up to 16 categories are indicated by numerals across the top of the matrix vs. the years of the study arranged vertically. Hundreds of plans are analyzed and stored as above. Generally only Plan 1 (the least-cost plan) is of significance, but frequently five, ten, twenty-five, or even a hundred matrices (Plans) are printed out to observe the cost differentials between the plans developed and displayed. Copies of the first five plans of each run are shown in the attached material. II. The second computer printout for each run displays the details of the chosen plan, generally Plan 1, although details of the first five plans may be printed out. Each page displays the results of calculations for one year of the study period. The first five columns display the inout data used in the particular computer run. In the first column are listed the abbreviations# of all the categories of generation, arranged in ascending numerical sequence as shown in the matrices for each plan discussed above, and arranged in the sequence in which the category would be economicall: dispatched into load duration curve, generally in ascending order of production cost. G-4 The modular organization of MADCAP and its fast execution time makes it an ideal tool for conducting sensitivity analyses, load management studies, or alternative policy evaluations. MADCAP consists of five individual programs linked by data files: GENDAT CURFIT ECONDAT MADCAP DTLPRD This program gathers data needed for state generation in MADCAP. Data includes number and capacity of units in each category, generator addition and retirement dates, outage rates, etc. Fits a fifth-order polynomial approximation to the load duration curve for each period of the study. Gathers all data that affects the cost of owning and operating the system. Reads data from the files produced by the above programs and finds the least cost expansion plans using dynamic programming. For each period (year) of the study the following information is printed for each plan. 1 o System peak load (MW) o Reserve capacity (%) o System production cost ($1,000) o System owning cost ($1,000) o Number of units in each category Reads data from the files produced by the above four programs and produces a detailed production cost report for the desired alternate plans from MADCAP For each period (year) of the study the following information is printed for each plan. eoo0oo0oo0o0o0q0 0 000000 System peak demand (MW) Generator category name Total category capacity (MW) Forced outage for the units in each category Effective maintenance outage for the units in each category Production cost of each category ($/mwh) Plant factor of each category Energy generated by each category Variable generation cost of each category ($1,000/Year) Owning cost of each category ($1,000/Year) Total owning & operating cost of each category ($1,000/Year) Total installed capacity (MW) Total energy generated (GWh) Cumulative present worth cost of system ($1,000) APPENDIX G MADCAP-GENERATION EXPANSION PROGRAM OVERVIEW OF MADCAP The MAin Dynamic Capacity Addition Program (MADCAP) finds the capacity installa- tion schedule that minimizes the total present worth of the annual capital and operating costs over the duration of the study (typically 20-30 years). Capacity addition combinations of up to sixteen generation categories can be considered. "Category" is defined as units of the same capacity (MW), variable costs ($/Mwh), annual fixed costs (4), and planned and forced outage rates. Run-of-river and limited-pondage hydro units can be included. Capacity expansions meet peak demand plus a reserve margin which may be held constant throughout the study period or varied year-by-year. Production costing calculations are based on merit order loading by generation category. Unit capacity is automatically derated to com- pensate for scheduled maintenance and forced outage. The load duration curve for each period (typically, but not necessarily, a year) is represented by three fifth-order polynominal approximations. Up to thirty periods can be considered. The modular organization of MADCAP and its fast execution time make it an ideal tool for conducting sensitivity analyses, load management studies, or alterna- tive policy evaluations. APPENDIX G DYNAMIC GENERATION CAPACITY PLANNING EXHIBIT F5 PANAMA/IRHE HYDROPOWER. SIMULATION COMPUTER MCDEL {SUMMARY OF RESULTS) Annual GWERS eS > TE j i ' + oO a o | i i ss o> ion 2 | i dnt > 12 } ah iss | % | i | i is | ee | a 22 es we fa! 3] |gar | 8 |B I eg Be is> |] 3B e| 5 le jad 3 © aN > 5 | = | od Cj eo; = ie | ° ¢ +0 > a oT ' wit = a > &;s3 pal = 3 og an x9 ge ! a5 | i] a 1+ £20] cals o= Se IS = 0 j Ow §i5; 8|ei8 |fs|| FElSE|/ 22 (28 |28 12a | 38 | zi 8) Siaié iS alSlalS|/cocl lead lea jean !! as! | | | 6} x| x | x! x 150 |1910|3,500 }2385 |1279 | 1106 | | 0 13} x} x act) (30 4,000 !2380 {1459 921 || 4 i lol xix | xix |x 7,000 | 3978 /2557 | 1421 |; 0 Wiz) ei x] e | si 8,000 ; 3571 |292z1 | 1050 1; 2 1z2| x | x x) x x 7,500 | 3974 {2740 1234 0 i 19| x | x x| x 225 3,500 | 2409 |1279 | 1130 | 9 i 20} x | x x x 4,000 | 2400 |1459 | 942 |} 4 | 44x! x i [aa 150 | 1050 j5,500 | 2467 | 2009 45i |i 0 Six! x x) | 3 {6,000 | 2493 |2184 308 7 ' 7 x: te) | | xt pxi |} ox 8,500 | 4049 | 3105 943 0 8) xi x Xi; x x 9,000 | 4067 :3288 778 0 9) xj x} xi xix 9,500 | 4067 13454 | 613 3 17ixix xix 225 5,590 | 2482 | 2009 473 0 wai x} x | x! x 6,000 | 2498 | 2184 31 Z aul x |x | x! x] x 9,000 | 4083 | 3288 795 0 101} x | x xix | % 150 | 1050/9,000 | 4248 |3276 973 |} 2* 102} x | x 5a ies 5,500 | 2656 | 1968 6ge | 38)" ! ! lel x | x | x 150 | ----|2,500| 1194 | 890 | 304 15 | si x |x|] x 2,000] 1210 | 731 479 0 144 x} x] x 1,500] 1209 | 548 661 |! 0 1 a | ajx|x |] x] x ise | 1662z|¢,cco| zs33 }2192 | 347 |} 0 i 2: x] x x] x 6,500! 2572 | 23¢9 203 s fst x il x x] x i 7,000} 2954 2495 99 21 | 22; x! x =H] og xi 9,500 | 4093 3472 : 622 ) i ; | } | \ A ae 1 ! ! : a | } : | : i | i | ' : { | ! t | { ' | ' | 4 | i { ' | | | | \ | 1 ie | | i { * Rule Curve at Fortuna (constant 1030m. El.) be MNES ce woe.08 soe.ce_saa.0e "95 189.08 00 b.00 tb.00 ab.00 ob. 0a RCEMC OF tine EOUALED RUN 006- FORTUNA 1010 WITHOUT — CHANGUINOLA 400.90 480.00 00.00 680.00 200-08, “Whoo ab-4 $90.00 t40.00 rge.oe _r00.0 _ 140.00 "3olbe NES. oo 93-00 cena rina th e ab. on Exceoes CENT OF Tune EQUALLED OR EXCEEDED sa.oe 290.00 _rt0.00 "Siete MSE.ce _s00.0e 80.00 $00.00 _su0.00 i008 a. oe. tho.0o PERCENT OF Tink EQUALLED OR EXCEEDED RUN 004- FORTUNA 1050 WITHOUT CHANGUINOLA bcs shea sb.00 tbo. VERCENT OF Tine EQUALLEO OR EXCEEDED usa.c0 _t00.00 210.00 "Sabie ES 00 20-00 VEnceni oF vine Eom tee on Beteocd” RUN OOI- FORTUNA 1062 WITHOUT CHANGUINOLA RUN O12 - FORTUNA 1010 RUN 008- FORTUNA 1050 EXHIBIT F4 WITH CHANGUINOL A WITH CHANGUINOLA = vr ecm REPUBLICA DE PANAMA lat Stem] wamtuvo Of RECURSOS MERAULICOS ¥ ELECTR ICAGON = = Cs PROYECTO FORTUNA lili oni E ae DURATION CURVES FOR [wemmenees | = AVAILABLE MONTHLY ENERGY - [===] FOR 178 MONTHS OF RECORD ve | | CUS T MAM INTERNATIONAL INC Ee Sor Sars | OO ys ge | —__REFERENCIA DEL PLANO r r EXHIBIT F3 DESIGN PARAMETERS (1) (2) (1) (3) (3) Bayano Changuinola D-2 Fortuna La Estrella Los Valles Capacity (MW) 150/225 240 255 43 47 Maximum Reservoir 6255 140 1010/1050/ 972 594 Elevation (M) 1062 Minimum Reservoir 49 100 999 967 593 Elevation (M.) Head Loss (M.) a 0 19 24 25 (4) Tailwater Elevation (M) 9.25 10 242 610 B22 Efficiency varies 75% 1a5 . 88 - 88 * Includes head losses Is The Fortuna Hydroelectric Project Dam Height and Capacity Optimization, April 1976, CHAS. T. MAIN. 2s Draft Report on Feasibility Study for the Hydroelectric Development of the’ Teribc and Changuinola River Basins, July 1978, CHAS. T. MAIN. Ss La Estrella - Los Valles Hydroelectric Project Feasibility Study, April 1975, Shawinigan Engineering Company Limited (Gross Heads obtained from IRHE). 4. Obtained from IRHE. ci LIGIHXG STATION # ¢ LOCATION 195M 1IBQ1931 1962 \/96 3) 1964 1/96 5|/966|/957|/ 968 /95Q|/9 7OWD 71 19 72V 973/974 1975 Lore 1977 /08-O01-O4 CA R1QUI -HORMTOS} 103-02 -O1 ICAL DEKA - QOQUETE —— 1008-02-06 CALLERS - JARAMILLO) 103-0? -Ol 405 VALLES 749-O1-Ol | @aYANO (MASE) 149 -O1-O4 MAYANO -PUEELONUEVO 14.3 -O1-O5 QA YANO -OAM SITE /g8-04-Of MAE (BEFORE RES) /43-05-O1 AN, ENTRANCE | CANA ZAS; ones.) 743-07 -OF O/ABLO (BEFORE RES /43 08-01 (ANITA BEFORE BAY, MANGUINOLA (BISCO) = —— |} |---|} 4} |} +] +--+ F}$ | 4 PERIOD OF RECORD AT STREAM GAGING STATIONS Td LIGIHXa - sence REPUBLICA OCEANO ATLANTICO [cetera] 10S VALLES 6] LA ESTRELLA [cetera] OCEANO ea e Osanriaco PACIFICO DE PANAMA GOLFO DE PARITA My COLOMBIA = ry » \y a LOCATIONS OF PROJECTS AND STREAM GAGING STATIONS As previous described in the description of the Methodology and as noted by Runs #101 and #102, an increase in secondary energy can be obtained by an annual reservoir operation curve. The monthly duration curves for the individual months and all months combined provided a graphical representation of the advantages of increased storage at Fortuna. The greater the storage capacity of the system, the "flatter" the duration curves become. The "flatness" of a curve indicates a more constant energy availability. The minimum value or values represents primary (firm) energy. Values in excess of this minimum indicate secondary energy. Depending on the characteristics of the Panama Load Curve, it is likely that much of the available secondary energy for the peak flow months could not be used. If a hydroelectric system has enough storage to regulate all flows, just primary energy could be produced and thus a flat duration curve would result. The computer summaries show the worst hydrologic conditions occurred during the late 1977 and early 1978. These last few years, which were not available for previous studies, have significantly added to the data base used for the 1976 study. Conclusions From the results of the hydropower simulation model the following can be concluded: 1) The 1050m Fortuna dam produces 2000 MWHRS/Day more primary energy than the 1010m. Fortuna dam within the system without the Changuinola D-2 Project. (#6 and #4). 2) The 1050m Fortuna dam produces 15CO MWHRS/Day more primary energy than the 1010m. Fortuna dam with the Changuinola D-2 Project. (#12 and #8). 3) The 1062m Fortuna dam produces 500 MWHRS/Day more primary energy than the 1050m dam with or without the Changuinola D-2 Project. (#4 and #1, #8 and #22) 4) Increasing the capacity at Bayano from 150 MW to 225 MW has no primary energy benefit and only slight secondary energy benefit to the system. (#6 and 19, #4 and 17). c.) Average spillage d.) Average total energy 2) The average monthly and annual energies of the entire hydroelectric system. 3) The monthly minimum and monthly total hydro energy occuring in the years of record. 4) The number of deficient months in which the objective primary enrgy was not met. 5) The minimum monthly plant factor for each month at each hydroelectric site. 6) The average annual total primary and secondary energy. The annual duration curves on Exhibit F-5 and duration curves for individual months are a graphical representation of the availability of energy for each scheme. The monthly curves indicate the availabiltiy of total primary plus secondary energy for each month. The annual curves include values for all 178 months of record. Discussion of Results The results shown in Exhibit F-4 and Exhibit F-5 provide a framework for comparison between the listed alternatives. Exhibit F-4 shows very slight differences in annual total energy between systems of the same total capacity. However, significant differences in the primary and secondary energies occur when the storage capacity at Fortuna is increased. The net benefit of each Fortuna alternate may be found by comparing the system with and without Fortuna. The maximum primary energy without Fortuna is 2000 MWHRS/Day, (Run #15). When the 1010m, Fortuna dam is added to the system, the maximum primary energy is 3500 MWHRS/Day, (Run #6). With a 1050 dam at Fortuna, the maximum primary energy obtained is 5500 MWHRS/Day, (Run #4). A similar comparison may be made with the addition of the Changuinola D-2 Project. (Run #12 vs. Run #18). This incicates that the increased benefit of a higher dam at Fortuna is slightly lower after the addition of the Changuinola D-2 Project. The incremental benefit of primary energy received by raising the Fortuna dam another 12m. to elevation 1062 is much smaller. (Compare Run #22 vs. #8 and Run #1 vs. #4). No increase in primary energy and only a slight secondary energy benefit is obtained with the installed capacity at Bayano is increased from 150 MW to 225 MW. (Compare Run #6 vs. #19 and Run #4 vs. #17). remaining amount of energy required. If the objective primary energy is equalled or exceeded, or if the objective can not be met, the program should use the following subparagraph (f). e) For each reservoir the total energy remaining is divided by the total energy from all reservoirs. (Energy in each reservoir/Energy of all reservoirs). The required additional energy from Step #d is multiplied by the above ratio to determine the amount of energy to be contributed by each reservior. Energy is withdrawn from each reservoir and Step #d is repeated. £) Daily and monthly totals are summed and the next day begun. Continuous checks are made throughout the program to insure the reservoir will not drop below its minimum pool elevation and the maximum amount of energy which can be produced in a given time inerval at any plant is not exceeded. Once any of these limits are met, the particular site is not considered in any remaining step. For example, in Step (e), if either limit is obtained, the amount of energy from a particular reservoir can not be produced. Thus Step (e) must be repeated and the energy will be reapportioned from the remaining reservoirs. An annual reservoir operation curve can be specified. Such a curve can reduce spillage by generating excess energy in the months preceding the anticipated wet season. The resulting lower reservoir will then be able to absorb high inflows. The maximum firm energy, however, is obtained if the reservoirs are kept full whenever practical and only additional secondary energy is produced by the operation curve. Therefore for this study no extensive study was made to determine operation curves for each reservoir. For this study 500MWhrs/da. increments were used to determine objective primary energy. If the recommendations of the final report are shown to be sinsitive to small changes in the maximum available primary energy, this analysis will be done more precisely using smaller increments. Results Exhibit F-4 is a summary of all significant computer runs made for this portion for the study. Exhibit F-5 shows duration curves of available monthly energy for the total period corresponding to runs No. 1, 4, 6, 8, and 12. The final summaries for each run are listed in Exhibit F-4. An explanation of these summaries is as follows: 1) For each hydroelectric plant, monthly annual values are shown £Ore a.) Average inflow b.) Average reservoir elevation F-4 Except at Fortuna, which has Pelton turbines, tailwater elevations and head losses for each hydroelectric plant are directly dependent upon the type of plant operation. If a plant is used for peaking, the tailwater in higher and the head losses greater than if the plant is used for base load operation, (i.e. constant operation at reduced capacity). In order to include the variation of tail water with plant output, operations would have to be analyzed by less than daily increments. For this study constant tailwater elevations were assumed. Methodology MAIN's hydropower simulation program, which is an extension of the program used for the April 1976 Dam Height and Capacity Optimization Report, will accept daily stream flow data for mutiple projects and simulate the combined hydro system operation for an indefinite period. For each day the program computes energy, spillage and reservoir elevation for each plant as well as primary and secondary energy for the combined system. These values are saved, and may be printed at the users discretion. The daily output is however quite voluminous and has therefore been deleted for most of these cases. For each month, a monthly summary is printed for each site. This includes average inflow, total spill, total. energy and minimum average, and maximum plant factor. The total primary and secondary energy for the composite system is also printed. These monthly totals are saved, summed and averaged for inclusion in the final summary. Each day is handled as follows: 1) Inflow volume for each plant is computed for the daily average. 2) Gross head is taken as the final reservoir elevation for the previous day less the tailwater. 3) Head loss and efficiency are determined for each plant. 4) The daily dispatching routine allocates energy from the individual plants according to the following procedure: a) The available energy is determined for La Estrella and Los Valles which are run-of-river plants with little or no storage. This energy is combined with the pondage hydro energy determined by the remaining steps. b) A minimum amount of energy is generated by each plant. This step is required to maintain capacity balance within the system. c) If a reservoir has excess inflow and is spilling the excess water is used and energy is withdrawn up to the maximum capacity of its respective power plant. d) The energy produced in each hydroelectric plant is summed and subtracted from the objective primary energy to determine the w« 7 The time period used for this study was from May 1963 through February 1978. This interval was selected because it was the longest period for which simultaneous records for the different drainage areas were available. Exhibit F-2 illustrates the available data records. The actual recorded data from all stations however, did not cover the required time period. This made it necessary to employ means to synthesize the missing data. A double mass _ curve analysis was used to correlate the data from the Boquette station with the Fortuna Project station at Hornitos, thus enabling the Fortuna data to be extrapolated from May 1966, back to May 1963, and to fill in missing data in 1968 and 1969. It was concluded that because the Boquette station is slightly upstream of the Jamarillo dam site, the two stations would be hydrologically similar. Therefore, by using the inverse of the correlation factors, the Boquette data could be extrapolated from April 1970 through September 1974. Multiplying it by the drainage area ratio (1.248) between Boquette and Jamarillo resulted in flow data which could be used for the La Estrella Project together with actual La Estrella Flow data from October 1974 through April 1978. By performing another double mass curve analysis between Hornitos and Los Valles, the Los Valles record could be extrapolated from July 1975 to April 1963. While correlating the Bayano River station at Maje with the station at the dam site, it became apparent after several monthly correlation attempts that the factor was approximately 1 for each month, therefore, the ratio of the drainage areas (1.111) was used as the correlation factor. This allowed the dam site flow data to be extrapolated from May 1972 back to April 1963. The actual dam site data however, contained gaps which gave unsatisfactory correlations to other Bayano data due to gross differences in drainage areas. Therefore a base flow recession curve was utilized to fill in the missing data. Monthly Changuinola data from April 1963 through March 1977 was available in the Teribe-Changuinola feasibility report. Data for March 1977 through April 1978 was obtained from Panama. SIMULATION Data and Assumptions Exhibit F-3 contains a list of the design parameters assumed for each project. The sources of these data are also shown. As shown, all hydroelectric plants except Bayano have assumed constant turbine effciencies. For these plants, head fluctuations will be small as a_ percentage of their total head. The Changuinola D-2 plant efficiency which was taken from results of another study includes head losses in the waterways. Because the available fluctuation, a head vs available capacity curve is used. Since La Estrella and Los Valles are run-of-the river hydroelectric plants with little storage, a constant net head is assumed for each. Head losses for each site were determined by averaging the normal and maximum operating head losses. Evaporation losses were not included for this study. APPENDIX F SIMULATION OF HYDROPOWER SYSTEM OPERATION FORTUNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT, PANAMA (CASE STUDY) INTRODUCTION As part of the Fortuna Hydroelectric Project Dam Height and Capacity Optimization Report which was completed by MAIN in April 1976, a _ simulation model utilizing eight years of available daily flow records was developed. The primary and secondary energies produced by 1010, 1030, 1050, and 1062 dam heights (meters) were determined for a range of plant capacities. This procedure was used in order to demonstrate effectively the liabilities of a lower height dam. In 1978 an extension to this study was completed. For this extension, the daily simultation model was expanded to include all other significant existing and proposed hydro projects in Panama. This combined analysis approach was selected because the hydrologic conditions in Panama are unique in that within a relatively small area, there are considerable differences in the annual distribution of run-off. By properly dispatching energy from each plant it is likely that more total energy can be utilized, than if each hydro station were considered independently. For example, it can be shown that the addition of Changuinola will firm-up a portion of the secondary energy available at Fortuna during its wet season. The data record from the previous study was extended to include over 14 years of sequential daily data (May 1963 - Feb. 1978). Computer runs were made for each Fortuna dam height along with various installed capacities at Bayano, and with and without the Changuinola D-2 Project. The Chinguinola D-2 project is the hydro project which appears to be the most attractive hydro project to follow the Fortuna project for implementation. For each specified plant combination, the maximum amount of primary firm energy which can be obtained daily was determined. The primary and corresponding secondary energy were then used in the subsequent cost-production analysis to determine the best alternatives. HYDROLOGY The hydrologic data in this study was obtained from daily stream flow records of selected gaging stations as supplied by IRHE and assembled in the draft Teribe- Changuinola feasibility report. Daily flows were used simulating the operation La Estrella - Los Valles and Fortuna projects while average monthly flows were used on the Bayano and Changuinola D-2 projects since their large reservoirs would absorb any daily peaks. Exhibit F-1 shows the location of the gaging stations. APPENDIX F SIMULATION OF HYDROPOWER SYSTEM OPERATION are noted to be in a range of particularly poor plant efficiencies, a contraint is added to the "long-term" program to prevent the stations from operating in this range. In this manner, both the long and short-term water usage will be analyzed while keeping the data management and computer time under control. ee reservoir volumes are large, data collection could be further simplified by using monthly inflow values. “s en APPENDIX E METHODOLOGY FOR FEASIBILITY FOR JOINT SCHEDULING AND CONTROL OF HYDROPOWER SYSTEMS One approach to the study of the combined operation of two or more hydroelectric systems is to undertake two successive analysis. The first analysis should be to determine optimum "long term" use of available water at each reservoir in order to provide maximum reliability (availability of energy and capacity at all times) while at the same time minimizing the amount of energy lost via spilling. This analysis would determine the best operating policy depending on existing reservoir storage, anticipated runoff, etc. These results would be input to the second "short term" analysis which would determine on an hourly basis the best allocation of hydro machines in order to utilize best the available water. The "long-term"’ analysis is a daily simulation model utilizing the complete available hydrologic record. This analysis uses the reservoir elevation- capacity curves, turbine characteristics, tailwater curves, minimum flow releases, and natural and controlled inflow records. This model includes all significant hydro plants in the various systems. The model can be verified using actual generation, reservoir storage and outflow data for a portion of the period. The purpose of this model is to examine the long-term water usage in terms of reservoir operating curves, allocation of power demands, energy lost by spilling, existing runoff prediction algorithms, and the interaction of hydro generation plants in cascade. Output of this program is used to investigate the possible increase in available prime energy for proposed changes to the system including interconnection of resources, increases in reservoir capacity, temporary reduction in capacity, etc. Although existing operating policies at each station are used as a starting point and for verification, changes to these policies are also investigated. When the entire hydrologic record is run with a given operating policy, the risk of energy shortages can be quantified vs _ the lost energy due to spilling. Output from this program in terms of suggested discharges from each plant for a given combination of time of year, available storages and anticipated run-off provide input for the "short-term" analysis. The "short-term" analysis simulates each plant in much greater detail on an hourly basis but only uses portions of the record which have hydrologic significants (i.e. wet or dry year, season, etc.). For this study, the actual hourly dispatch of units to provide both energy and capacity are considered. The present dispatching rules are studied and the program is verified using data for a recent period. At each station the combination of units which for a given release produce the greatest kilowatt output is determined. This program should demonstrate which stations are best for base load operations, which are best for peaking, and what stations could benefit best from increased capacity. The long and short-term programs are run simultaneously such that results from one can be used to refine operation of the other. If certain plant discharges E-1 APPENDIX E METHODOLOGY FOR. JOINT SCHEDULING & CONTROL reservoir constraints (i.e., bottom of power pool, spillway eleva- tion), generation constraints, initial and objective final reservoir storages, curves for available plant capacity vs net head, and hydrologic data (inflow for each interval). Thermal plant data is limited to cost/MWHR for ranges of generation, capacity in MW .. for base load constant operation plants, and capacity in MW for combined primary thermal plants. For studies with short (less than 1 day) time intervals thermal start-up and shut down costs may be included. System requirements include for each interval maximum demand in, MW total energy requirement in MWHRS, and load duration curves. uM - Output data from the computer program includes a listing of all input data as presented to the program, tables of conditioned input for use with the optimizing procedure, results for the composite hydro vs thermal system, results for each individual hydro plant and finally a summary of the results for the entire study period. Results for the composite hydro and thermal systems include total run-of-river and pondage hydro generation for each interval, total thermal gene- ration for each interval, thermal cost data, available capacity and reserve capacity. For the individual hydroplants calculated results for each interval consist of initial reservoir elevation and capacity, _ total reservoir inflow, MWHRS generated, water lost by spilling, cumulative inflow and outflow, and available plant capacity in MW. The hydroplant summary includes final storage, elevation and capacity, total MWHRS generated, total MWHRS lost due to spilling, and resulting load factor. The final summary includes total genera- tion of spilling from all sources and calculated thermal generating cost. nae data becomes available these subroutines can easily be changed or new ones added to represent a new plant design option. The user does not have to fully comprehend the optimizing procedure to modify these hydro plant subroutines. Operation of the major portion of the program is effected . by the following routines. I Routine to read and print input data.and check for reasonability. 2. Routine to perform basic calculations to convert input data to values used during the optimizing procedure. Ss Dynamic optimizing procedure (described under General Methodology). 4. Routine to interpret and summarize results, 5. Routine to print and/or plot results. In addition to the hydro plant subroutines described above, other subroutines are included to perform often repeated calculations such as interpolation or sorting. Computer time and storage requirement for a typical run vary considerably depending on the number of alternatives which must be investigated. The number of alternatives is usually quite smalf for a system operating near maximum capacity while very large for less strained operation which has more system flexibility. The user can greatly reduce necessary computer time by specifying system constraints so the solution process will not have to store and calculate unreasonable alternatives. Input data to the program includes hydroproject. data, thermal plant data, and system requirements. Data for each hydro plant includes reservoir elevation/storage curves, turbine efficiencies, reservoir storage. As a secondary optimizing parameter, if several paths to the same state exhibit the same total cumulative cost that path which has the maximum reservoir storage is retained, Although the method of solution is essentially the same, problems solved for a typical electric system are far more extensive. For instance, at any particular stage the number of possible decision alternatives may result in several thousand paths for the following interval: This number can usually be reduced as in the above ex- ample to several hundred possible states for the next stage. in addition to the reservoir storage limitations noted in the above example the practical problem considers many more factors including thermal generation constraints such as maximum and minimum allowable generation, available capacities, and operating limita- tions (i.e., maintenance start up costs), system requirements for both capacity and energy (load curve), and hydro plant considera- tions such as minimum allowable discharges and available energy and capacity are greater at higher heads. A; GENERAL PROGRAM CONFIGURATION The computer program entitled OAHR (Optimum Allocation of Hydropower Resource) has been written with a general format . , to facilitate the analysis of many different electric system con- figurations. The dynamic optimizing procedure, and the input and output formats are part of the general program. The operation of ‘each hydro plant ina system is usually so unique that it becomes impractical to generalize their operation. They are handled by individual program subroutines which contain the reservoir eleva- tion capacity curves, turbine and generator efficiency curves, and any function or operating limitation not generalized by the main Program (i.e., head loss and tailwater calculations). As more Path |S(d) G(3) | C(3) ; TC(d) cl-p2}|_1 | 0 45 _| 115 C1l-p2]_1 | 1 25 95 c2-p2|_ 1! 0 45 -_ C1-D3|_2 | 2 1o_| 80 c2-p3|_ 2 | 1 25 75 co-pal_3 | 2 | 10 60 Figure 4 - Interval 3 This process can be continued for as many intervals as desired ~ with only the least cost alternatives, arriving at valid states saved from each stage. After this procedure is.completed for all intervals the optimum path to any valid final state can be determined casily. Assuming the engineer desires a final state S(d) = 2. Examination of Figure 4 shows the least expensive (TC = 75) path to S(d) results when G(3) = 1. This, in turn, gives a state for stage C of S(c) = 1. _ In like manner Figure 3 gives G(2) = Oas the least expensive . , alternative and Figure 2 gives G(1) = 1 as the best choice. This process may be repeated for any valid value for the final state of -the system. Note that a given system may have more than one least cost path. To avoid confusion units were deliberately deleted from this example. For the subject program the state of the system at any stage is equal to the total MWHRS gerierated: from the beginning of the study period. The intervals are fractions of months and costs are in any desired unit. For each state there is a corresponding to the minimum allowable storage constraints there are.only two possible generations (G (2) = 0 or G (2) = 1) and three possible paths, resulting in two possible states for Stage C (see Figure 3). [path | s¢c) G(2) | C(2) | tc1e) | Figure 3 - Interval 2 As shown by the cost table it is less costly to arrive at state C2 by generating 0 in interval 2. Therefore, the alternative to arrive at state C2 by generating 1 in interval 2 is eliminated. F In like manner consider interval 3. As shown in Figure 4 there _ are two states of the system at C, however, it is now possible to ‘generate 0, 1, or 2 which results in 6 possible paths for interval 3 and three possible states for stage D. Note that the path Cl - Dl results in an invalid state at D because D1 is greater than the maximum allowable reservoir storage. Therefore a decision to generate 0 from state Cl results in spilling and arrival at state D2. A,: 8,38; C.3 ete. - Numbering system for different et aa I states of the system for each stage S(a); S(b); S(c); etc. - Values for possible state of the system at A, B, etc. G(1);G(2); G(3); etc. - Values for possible generation for intervals 1, 2, cle. €(1); C(2); (3); etc. - Values for cost for thermal genera- tion for interval 1,2,3, etc. TC(a); TC(b); TC(c); etc. - Total cost for optimum path from beginning of study period to given state at stage A, B, C, etc. The first decision will effect the change in state from A to B through interval l. Examination of the data and con- straints show that there are two possible paths for interval 1 (G(1) = 0 or G(2) = 1) which gives a state for stage B of either 0 or 1 (Bl and B2). The costs associated with these two paths are summarized in Figure 2. : | Path | S(b) | G(l) | c(2) | TC) | ; . at | 0 | 0 45 45 | 1 ale ey Al-B2| 1 | 1 25 as | fut (a ! on @ B Figure 2 - Interval 1 Because there is only one path to each state of stage B, both paths are saved. The second decision point will be at stage B and will effect the change in state from B to C through interval 2. Due Demand for the three intervals = . Interval Demand 1 3 2 2 3 3 Incremental thermal generation cost/unit 0-1 = 10 1-2 =15 2-3 = 20 Shia. Sample Problem Solution Draw a mass curve of reservoir inflow with maximum and minimum allowable storage levels. Cumulative Inflow no hs Initial. toray, k AYO) 1B) Gs UG |) | (D Stage & Interval ‘ Figure I'- Mass Curve For this problem the stages are indicated as points A,B,C, and D which are the terminal points for intervals 1,2, and 3. Note that ‘the number of stages is one greater than the number of intervals. The state of the system at A is 0, because no hydro resource has been used. The definition of the terms indicated on the figures and tables is as follows: wy i energy is used to fulfill the remaining energy requirement. 4. The optimal path for the study period is that which pro- duces the minimum total thermal energy cost. When solving a hydro peel supply problem, it should be noted that making the least costly decision at each successive stage not yield the least costly overall decision. It is likely that reducing hydro resource allocation at one stage may permit greater savings thereafter. One technique which could be suggested would be to enumerate all possible combinations of alternatives and solve by trial and error. Although this method may be feasible for the fol- lowing sample problem, just a few stages of a practical problem using real data would result in an unmanageable number of alter- natives for even the largest digital computers. With the dynamic programming technique, for each interval all possible paths to each new state are investigated, however, only the least costly path for each new state are saved for the next interval. In other words, the solution process is a progressive one determining the current optimal solution from the previous one until the problem is completely solved. clout Sample Problem Consider the following non dimensional problem: Number of intervals = 3 Number of hydro plants = 1 Initial storage = 1 Inflow for three intervals - 1,0,2 Maximum allowable storage =.'3 Minimum allowable storage = 1 Maximum allowable hydro generation = 2 The typical dynamic programming problem has the following characteristics; 1. 2. The problem can be divided up into stages witha decision. required at each. At each stage the system can find itself in one of several possible conditions or states. ‘The decision to be made at any particular stage changes the system from the state associated with that stage to the state associated with the next stage. From a given state at a stage the optimal path for the remaining stages is independent of the path used to arrive at that state. For the majority of.dynamic programming models the objective is to allocate an available resource (machines, space, money, etc.) among various activities so as to maximize total return. For ease of explanation, a simplified example of a dynamic program using a single hydro plant will be presented. 3. GENERAL METHODOLOGY For the hydro resource supply problem the following defini- tions are made with respect to dynamic programming methodology: 1. 2. 3. The stages of the problem correspond to the terminal points of the time intervals which are subdivisions of the time period overwhich optimized resource allocation is desired. (i.e., if monthly intervals were used the stages would be the beginning and end of each month.) The state of the system is the total amount of hydro resource used from the start of the study period. The decision to be made at each interval is how much hydro resource to allocate to generation. Thermal APPENDIX D DYNAMIC PROGRAM FOR THE OPTIMUM ALLOCATION OF HYDROPOWER RESOURCES ts INTRODUCTION “The importance of hydroelectric development to the economical operation of an electric power supply system is widely appreciated. The allocation of this resource, especially when several developments are being considered, can be quite complex. In order to facilitate the selection of hydro powerplant alternatives and to optimize their combined operation with thermal power sources a computer program _has been developed. This program uses an operations research optimizing technique known as dynamic programming to effecta solution. The parameter to be optimized is thermal generating cost, which is minimized,while reservoir storages, plant capacity, and system energy and demand requirements are maintained within specified constraints. Results aid the engineer to select the best overall combination of hydro and/or thermal plant alternatives prtO) operate this configuration most efficiently, and to determine when increasing demand will require extensions to the system. Ee ‘2. THEORY Dynamic programming is a mathematical technique used when considering a problem involving a complex sequence of inter- related decisions. Unlike linear programming, dynamic programming is not a standard mathematical formulation, but rather a general approach to solving an optimizing problem where a systematic pro- cedure for determining the most desirable combination of decisions is provided. For each problem this procedure must be unique with the equations developed to fit each individual situation. APPENDIX D DYNAMIC PROGRAM FOR THE OPTIMUM ALLOCATION OF HYDROPOWER RESOURCES INTRODUCTION THEORY GENERAL METHODOLOGY Byeul: Sample Problem Bi Sample Problem Solution GENERAL PROGRAM CONFIGURATION APPENDIX D OPTIMUM ALLOC. OF HYDROPOWER RESOURCES EXHIBIT 14 MONTHLY ENERGY: TOTAL, BASE COMPONENT, AND WEATHER AND LIFE-STYLE COMPONENT ENERGY GENERATED TOTAL, 300 ENERGY — GIGAWATT HOURS WEATHER SENSITIVE a- + LIFESTYLE 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 YEAR LIFE-STYLE PLUS WEATHER LOADS (MW) EXHIBIT 13 EXAMPLE OF SEASONAL LIFE-STYLE LOAD SCHOOL EFFECT 1977 SCHOOL EFFECT SCHOOL FRI. 9 mah FRI. 26 AUG. NO SCHOOL 04 08 12 16 20 HOUR OF DAY So Ss So S So 5 = S 24 100 EXHIBIT 12 ESTIMATED AND FORECAST _ WEATHER CONDITIONING ENERGY APTA EEE 1 +h eee 4} i 47 4972 T HOURS _t VISIONS. ANNUAL ENERGY — GIGAWAT o iTHMIC 2 CYZLES X 180 D1 KE Moeoegare: § EEEEEE | HH TOT Hi HT 1985 1990 11 1995 EXHIBIT 11 BASE LOAD FOR 1965, 1970 & 1977 (SAMPLE) NO 4114. 18 er 29 O1vIIONS FER INCH sae BY 140 o1¥IEIORe, GCOCISTZ ,, TOM OCT tom coves soon co. womwoos, mass, vsose 2 seats a SAT. FR THUR WED. TIME wi = = boa oe ee ee ee ee free = ate a el stag tet + — SS de Z Ay 3 =f = = 8 MW - QVO1 3SV8 EXHIBIT 10 t+ aaa YEARS EXHIBIT 9 RESIDENTIAL AVERAGE ANNUAL USE 1974 1979 1994 kWh ba kWh % kWh % kWh Water Heater 3000 10 - 300 nN 330 20 600 Refrigerator 650 40 260 45 292.5 80 520 Range 1000 5 50 7 70 15 150 Eraezer 1100 10 110 nN 121 Ber 1) sa Central AC 4700 3 141 4 188 12 564 Room AC 1st unit 2500 30 750 38 950 80 2009 Room AC 2nd unit 2500 10 250 12 300 45 1125 Washing Machine 70 40 28 45 315 80 56 ce 975 10 975 15 146.25 40 390 Dish Washer 310 10 31 15 46.5 40 124 Disposal 32 7 2.2 10 3.2 30 9.6 Radio om||||!||| 26 63 80 72 100 90 Tv 270 50 135 65 175.5 90 243 Lighting 600 700 1500 Miscellaneous 56.3 101.55 472.4 2874 3628 8064 a = Percent of households having the appliance EXHIBIT 8 EXHIBIT 7 EXAMPLE OF MARKOV SUMMER PEAK DEMAND FORECAST MODEL 1.7426 -0.5034 0.7255 SPKD = 0.12106-03 xX (PIM ) X (PECI) X (THID) 7 WARL- PRESENT PRESENT TRANSITION PORPCAST “ABLE «VALUE OP GROWTH PROBABILITY PIVE YEARS~~----- ~ TEN YEARS--~------ PIPTEEN YEARS----- TWENTY YEARS--—--— VAK TABLE RATE MATRIX AAR END VALUE AAR END VALUE AAR END VALUE AAR END VALUE (0.4 0.2 0.4) PIn O.26948404 4o13) (0.8 0.2 0.0 ) PROB 3.49 0.3435E404 2.95 0.3973E+04 2.69 0.4536B+04 2.53 U5 140E+08 (0.2 0.0 0.8 ) i . i . (1.0 0.0 0.0 PRC? O.20672-02 2.00 ( 1.0 0.0 0.0) PROB 2.00 0.2945E-01 2.00 0.32518-01 0.0 0.3251R-01 0.0 0.3251E-01 (1.0 0.0 0.0 ) i a (1.0 0.0 0.0 ) THID ~ 9.1000R+01 0.0 (1,0 0.0 0.0) PROB 0.0 © 0.1000E401 ~ 0.0 0.1000R+01 0.0 0. 1V00EFO1 0.0 0.1000Ee01 (1.0 0.0 0.0 ) 7 . SeKD 0.79 35E+03 PROD 5.46 0. 1035E004 4.16 0. 12698404 “4.73 0. 159GB604 4ouo 0. 198UE+04 INFLUENCE FROM OTHER SECTORS RESOURCE AVAILABILITY CAPITAL INFLUENCE ON OTHER SECTORS PER CAPITA INCOME INFLUENCE FROM OTHER SECTORS LABOR SUPPL INFLUENCE ON OTHER SECTORS NTERNATIONAL INTERREGIONAL AGREEMENTS EXHIRIT 6 EXHIBIT 5 LOAD FORECAST YEAR 1990 LUAL AT GLNERATION LOAD AT DELIVERY POINTS HONT? LRLRGY (MED PEAK (MK) ENERGY (MHH) PEAK (MW) ToT" SRTTANOT"~SCASORALS7 "~~~ TOTROW-> | TT RTTADOTT" TO SCASONAES 7777 CozD7-7-— Tien fff a acnon eee SLASURALS SEASUNALS MANAGLHENT Jah eM4lel. 124 ve. 687529. 1486. 4e 103. 1362. (1601) * 652465. 1289. FLL LULa DU L204. OlL9beL. 1413. 4. 36. 1382. 578417. 1289. 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On *( ) EXTREME WEATHER PEAK,-10 F EXHIBIT 4 NON-BASE ENERGY ACTUAL AND FITTED ACTUAL oan: —-— FITTED 180 }- \ D | 120 aul f \ i \ j | \ ! : \ cot \ \ \ \ ; \ ; \ VJ! \ Z Vi LA \ Sf] I \ \ 4 nat — N! a C \ 1 4 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 EXHIBIT 3 MONTHLY NON-BASE ENERGY EQUATION (GIGAWATT HOURS) GWH = -91.00 - 33.54 PELEC + .6439 CONSUM + .0003774 HDDCON (2.96) (3.27) (2.93) (8.25) + .002002 HDDHEAT + .00044722 CDDCON (7.12) (7.14) R = .97 where t-statistics are given in parentheses under the coefficients GWH = Monthly non-base energy in gigawatt-hours PELEC = The current price of electricity CONSUM = Number of consumers HDDCON = Heating degree days times number of consumers HDDHEAT = Heating degree days times number of electric heat consumers CDDCON = Cooling degree days times number of consumers EXHIBIT 2 ENERGY FORECASTS FOR CUSTOMER CATEGORIES (GWH) 1977 a 1982 t 1987 Z 1992 Residential Heating 609 11.30% 1,040 8.15% 1,539 6.35% 2,094 Other Residencial 2,003 1.62% 2,170 2.62% 2,470 2.60% 2,809 Residential Total 2,612 4.21% 3,210 4.55% 4,009 4.11% 4,903 Schoola/Commercial 42 -1.98% 38 0.00% 38 0.002 38 Commercial Heating 352 4.13% 431 2.68% 492 0.00% 492 Other Coumercial and Industry 5,289 2.62% 6,018 3.76% 7,237 3.81% 8,725 Commercial and Industry Total 5,683 2.68% 6,487 3.67% 7,767 3.57% 9,255 Public Auchorittes 63 0.63% 65 0.31% 66 0.307, 67 TOTAL : 8,358 3.15% 9,762 3.94 11,842 3.74 14,225 1/) AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE Winter Summer PIM PRCL GAS1 TWSWAT THID EXHIBIT 1 WINTER AND SUMMER PEAK DEMAND Peak = .0113 x prmt*23 x proi7"375 x gasi*??> x rwswat 479 (14.76) (3.30) (2.46) (5.95) Peak = .00012 x Prmt*’43 y prci7-9° « rHrp’’?® (45.07) (10.51) (3.04) t-statistics given in parentheses under the exponents non-farm personal income of the state u price of electricity lagged one year = price of natural gas lagged one year = temperature-wind-speed index = temperature-humidity index While the four forecasting methods have been described as separate entities, they can be combined. Where two or more methods are equally advantageous, they can be employed to reinforce the forecasts of each other. The Markov Method already employs equations determined by the Econometric Method. Econometric equations can be used to forecast appliance saturation or growth of a particular industry. Econometric equations can project base loads, weather loads, or lifestyle loads into the future. With these four methods, we are able to provide useful forecasts to any domestic or foreign electric utility. When the three components (base, weather, and lifestyle) are combined, they explain almost all the variation in the hourly loads. As in the Econometric Method, the behavior of each component can be attributed to a list of explanatory variables. A forecast can be created by projecting changes in these explanatory variables and then calculating the corresponding loads. Thus, each component of demand may grow at different rates. The sum of the three components yields the hourly forecasts. The summer and winter peaks are apt to result from simultaneous high points in these patterns but not necessarily at the maximum of any single component. As the components grow at different rates through the forecast period, the peak hour of the day may shift. For example, in one Midwestern utility, the summer peak has shifted from early evening to late afternoon and is likely to move close to 3:00 PM or 4:00 PM if air conditioning usage continues to expand. Because it yields reliable and detailed estimates of hourly loads, the Pattern Recognition methodology can be of substantial help to a utility's planning effort. For example, forecasts at this level of detail are indispensable in answering questions such as: 1. How much base load should a utility have? Zi How much peaking capacity? Be Should investments be made in distribution hardware such as dual meter systems or ripple control? 4. Is it cost effective in the long run to develop hardware for load management? In addition, since the analysis is carried out on hourly load data, projections can be generated for the annual load duration curve, monthly energy sales, hourly system loads for the typical weekday, hourly system loads for the typical weekday, and hourly peaks for any day of the year. These results fulfill some of the requirements in Section 133, Title 1 of PURPA (Public Utilities Regulation and Policy Act). CONCLUSIONS The results of the four forecasting methods described above can be and have been useful planning tools to electric utilities. The Econometric Method is a_ sound tool for analyzing total load or sub-classes of the total load when good historical data exist. The Markov Method enhances forecasts from the Econometric method by including the expectations of local business and community leaders within the utility's service area. The End-Use Method is advantageous when historical information is sketchy or when major changes are expected to occur in the type of electric consuming devices, in the intensity of use, or in electric consumption per use. The Pattern Recognition Method analyzes hourly loads, then builds upwards to daily, weekly, monthly or annual energy. The hourly information is very useful for planning and regulatory purposes. PATTERN RECOGNITION The Pattern Recognition method analyzes hourly loads. This method separates the total hourly load into three major components: base, weather, and life style. Each component has its own pattern which varies according to the time of day, day of the week, and season of the year. The underlying philosophy of this approach is that hourly electric consumption follows a variety of daily, weekly, or seasonal patterns (hence, its name of Pattern Recognition). Because’ the behavioral patterns are distinct, they can by analyzed separately. BASE LOAD The base loads represent the minimal expected demand for each of the 168 hours in a week. Each hour's base is determined from a non-holiday hour that has very little or no weather-induced electric demand. Occassionally, demand can be below this base level, for example, on a holiday when most businesses and industrial plants are closed. Typically, the base load rises rapidly in the morning, plateaus during the workday, and falls rapidly in the evening. The magnitudes of the slopes and the peaks vary according to the day of the week. In the example presented in Exhibit A-11 the highest base load usually occurs at 11:00 AM. Weekend base loads are generally below the corresponding hours' weekday loads. WEATHER LOAD The weather load represents electrical consumption such as space heating or air conditioning in response to varying weather conditions. The weather load varies by time of day and, more importantly, by the time of year. The weather load may also include such behavior as electrical lighting, television, etc., when the outdoor weather causes people to engage in indoor activities. The growth in the summer weather load can be quite different from growth in the winter weather load. Exhibit A-12 projects the total heating load to surpass the total summer cooling load for one particular utility. LIFESTYLE LOAD The lifestyle load refers to electric consumption due to societal influences and the timing of sunrise/sunset. School days, holidays, sunrises and sunsets are the more important lifestyle effects. Exhibit A-13 shows the morning impact of school. Although lifestyle loads generally represent additional consumption, the holiday effect is apt to be negative, i.e., a reduction in the normal consumption of electricity. Thus, a holiday with little weather load can have a total load that is below the "base" load. TOTAL LOAD Hourly loads or patterns can be summed into daily, weekly, monthly or annual energy. Exhibit A-14 contains a plot of monthly total energy and two subtotals--monthly base energy and monthly weather and lifestyle energy. END-USE METHOD A different approach from examining energy sales or peak demand in total or by customer categories is to examine electric consumption by its end use, or at its final consumption points. This approach focuses on the impact of changes in population, future industrial activity, saturation of appliances, intensity of use of appliances, lighting, and other uses of electricity. This method requires a market survey of industrial and commercial customers and an appliance survey of residential customers. Appliances which draw considerable power and air conditioners, heat pumps, resistance heating systems, electric water heaters, refrigerators, freezers, electric stoves, electric dryers, televisions, and, in the future, maybe home computers and electric automobiles. Future electric consumption is determined by projecting the number of customers, the future saturation of appliances, the frequency of use, and the corresponding annual electric consumption of the appliance. Thus, projected lifestyle changes are reflected through the types and usage of appliances. Exhibit A-9 displays an application "usage table" for several selected years. Industrial sales may be projected on a company-by-company basis or as aggregates, as shown in Exhibit A-10. Innovations such as improvements in energy efficiency may reduce the electric requirements for operating an appliance. Exxon and Borg-Warner have announced improved electric motors; General Electric has invented a more efficient light bulb. Electric cars may be introduced in the mid-1980's. Normal econometric forecasts cannot show specific technological improvements. They can only capture the general trend of technology as it responds to rising energy prices, to changes in income, or to some similar variable. An end-use study is advantageous for those developing countries where time series information is nonexistent or, at best, incomplete. Demand may be constrained by the supply of electricity so that metered electric sales do not represent the potential demand for electricity. A specification of appliances that would be used if electricity were available may present a better measure of true demand. For some developing countries or other places where appliance information is scarce and time series data are unavailable, the End-use method can focus on consumption of a typical customer rather than of each appliance. The typical residential consumer is assumed to have an appliance mix that consumes 'X" amount of electricity. Industry "A' may consume "Y" amount of electricity, while industry "B" consumes "Z'' amount. The projections may be based on different growth rates for each category. Total electricity is then the sum of all categories. A limitation of the End-Use method is the difficulty in determining the coincidental peak demand or typical daily loads. The peak demand requires assumptions about coincidental use of different customer categories or about load factors. A. A. Markov, a nineteenth century Russian mathematician, and had only limited applications until the advent of the computer. This approach was developed initially in 1971 for the World Bank and it has since been applied in Panama, Columbia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United States with a great deal of success. Basically, each of the independent variables is examined to determine what its present state is. This "stable state" is usually the rate of growth over the past five years. The probability that in the next five, ten, fifteen and twenty years this variable will grow at a greater or lesser rate is then analyzed. For this analysis a research team is formed which may include economists, city planners, and sociologists, to evaluate local conditions and interview government and industry leaders. In order for the analysts to assign growth rate probabilities, they have to familiarize themselves with the different economic sectors in the utility's service area. Exhibit A-6 illustrates the factors that potentially affect growth in the service and trade sectors. The forecasters examine both the demand side, which includes consumption patterns, population, and per capita income, and the supply side, which includes resource availability, technology, capital availability, labor supply, etc. They ask about business expansion plans, new businesses moving into the area, and business leaving the area or phasing out operations. On completion of this analysis, the research team assigns probabilities of growth rate changes to the economic variables. Exhibit A-7 is a computer print-out of the Markov method applied to an equation for the summer peak demand that was introduced in the previous section. This forecast is chosen for its simplicity. The price of electricity is assumed to grow 2% per year in real terms for the next ten years and the temperature- humidity index is assumed to be constant, i.e., the weather is normal in each year. The growth in non-farm personal income (PIM) is variable and depends on the Markov probability matrix. The present level of each variable and its present growth rate are given on the left side of Exhibit A-7. The forecaster inputs the values in the transition probability matrix which determines the changes in future growth forecasts for five, ten, fifteen and twenty years. Inserting these values in the equation results in the load forecast shown at the bottom of the print-out. The forecaster can test for different scenarios by changing the probability matrix. To understand the Markov process examine the first variable. The stable rate is 4.1% for non-farm personal income. The top line of the probability matrix means that income has a 40% probability of growing faster, and a 40% probability of growing slower. These values determine the short-term forecast; the two bottom lines of the matrix define the long-run expectations. Based on these probabilities, the model forecasts an average increase in non-farm personal income of around 3.5% in the short run and 2.5% in the long run. Exhibit A-8 shows Markov projections for different regions in Panama: West Panama, Chiriqui Province, Central Provinces, the Metropolitan area, and a group of isolated systems. The growth probabilities were different for each region. WEATHER FACTORS The weather sensitivity of an electrical system has several important aspects. A utility's reserve capacity should be selected to account for expected weather extremes. A rise in electric heating or air conditioning may increase the system's weather heating or air conditioning may increae the system's weather sensitivity and lower the load factor. Peak demand may rise faster than off- peak demand; the hour of peak may change. Some utilities are projected to shift from summer to winter peaks due to rapid increases in the number of electric heating customers. For predicting peak demand, the temperature is the single most important measure. However, other weather variables such as wind speed in winter and humidity in summer are also important. Heating (or cooling) degree days are often used to predict energy. The winter peak, previously given in Exhibit A-1, increases when either the temperature decreases or the wind speed at the peak hour increases. The summer peak of the same utility (also in Exhibit A-1) is predicted by the state's non- farm personal income, the price of electricity lagged one year, and a temperature-humidity index. As the temperature or humidity rises, electric demand increases. Note also that the impacts of income and price changes are markedly different from the winter peak model. Econometric models can represent any time span. Usually, clients choose either monthly or annual projections. From the econometric viewpoint, monthly information tends to measure the weather impact more accurately as there are twelve independent monthly observations for every annual one. Monthly observation hardly improves the accuracy of estimated income, price, or demographic terms because these variables usually are either measured annually, change slowly, or have a gradual impact. A monthly energy equation is given in Exhibit A-3. The dependent variable in this example is only the weather- sensitive portion of energy usage. (The base load, which is explained later, has been subtracted from total energy). The explanatory variables are the price of electricity, the number of regular customers, the number of electric heating customers, heating degree days, cooling degree days, and combinations of these variables. Exhibit A-4 illustrates how well this equation fits the actual data. Exhibit A-5 uses the equation cited above plus several other equations to predict total energy and demand for a utility. The utility has seasonal customers who reduce their demand in the peak winter months. These customers were analyzed separately. A load management program is expected to reduce the utility's peak demand. MARKOV METHOD The Markov method expands upon the Econometric method. Economic models are developed as described earlier. However, rather than using a prepared forecast (such as one based on national trends provided by the Department of Commerce), we develop our own projections for the independent variables, using a probabilistic assessment. This assessment is based on the process originated by c=-$ customers, then state income (or per capita state income) may be used. If the local mix of industries or customers of the utility's service area is different from the state as a whole, then county income, if available, is appropriate. For a rural electrical cooperative, income in the counties served provides a more accurate gauge of economic activity than state income, as the rural areas tend not to be influenced by the same cyclical factors as metropolitan areas. Income is not always the best economic variable. For example, electric sales to industrial customers may be better modeled by measures of industrial activity rather than by income. Sometimes only a few customers dominate the utility's industrial sales. In this case, special attention must be paid to those customer's characteristics. As the price of energy rises, the price elasticity of electricity (i.e., a measure of the change in sales in response to price changes) become more important for planning and regulatory purposes. Generally, electricity consumption declines in response to increases in its own price or decreases in the prices of competing energy sources such as gas or oil. Although significant price differences in energy sources usually encourage consumers to choose the cheaper one, changes in fuel usage are gradual and certainly more evident in new construction than in established businesses and households where conversions are Many times postponed until mandated by system or appliance breakdown or government regulations. The electricity demand may be modeled with up to a year lag-time in "real" (adjusted for inflation) price terms. An example of these economic influences is given in Exhibit A-1 which displays an equation for the annual winter peak of a Mid-Western utility in the U.S. The peak is explained by the state's non-farm personal income, the price of electricity lagged one year, the price of natural gas lagged one year, and a temperature-wind-speed index. The farm portion of income is excluded because of its volatility and its appartently negligible impact on the growth of this utility's demand. The equation estimates that a 1.0% increase in income causes a 1.2% increase in megawatt demand., a 1.0 increase in electric prices decreases demand in the following winter by 0.37% and a 1.0% rise in natural gas prices increases peak electric demand by almost 0.3% in the following winter. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS The Econometric method is quite adaptable in that it can explain demand or energy for the whole service area or for particular segements. For example, if the utility serves several distinct geographic areas, each area can be modeled separately. Total energy can also be subdivided into customer classes such as residential, residential with electric heating, small commercial, commercial space heating, large commercial and industrial, etc. Often these divisions are based on sales data which do not contain information on coincident peak usage. Peak demand by type of customer can sometimes be ascertained from records of substations that serve primarily one type of customer. Exhibit A-2 shows historical and predicted electric sales by six customer categories: a residential subtotal, a commercial and industrial subtotal, and a grand total. KSAEP-APPEN A-2:4 - 06/18/80 APPENDIX C FORECASTING METHODS for ELECTRIC DEMAND INTRODUCTION The following methods have been used to develop load forecasts for many utilities within the United States and for countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Four methods are described. The are used separately or in combination, for forecasting energy (MWH) and peak demand (MW). These methods are called Econometric, Markov, End-use, and Pattern Recognition. The Econometric method models current and past power usage behavior and uses this as a basis for future projections. The Markov method allows the growth expectations of local and national government and industry leaders to be reflected in the forecast. The End-use method examines electric use at its final consumption points, focusing on appliance saturation and average usage of appliances. The Pattern Recognition method analyzes the utility's hourly loads to derive load duration curves and to determine peak demand. ECONOMETRIC METHOD The Econometric method employs mathematical modeling to represent the demand for electrical energy within a utility's serice area. In developing an econometric model, the characteristics of the service area and its customers are considered. In general, demand in megawatts and energy in megawatt hours can be explained by economic factors such as income, price of electricity, and price of substitute energy; by demographic factors such as population and the number and types of customers; and by weather factors such as temperature, humidity, cooling degree days, and heating degree days. Once the model is formulated, assumptions about the future values of the variables are made. These future values are applied in the econometric equation to yield projections of electric energy and demand. ECONOMIC FACTORS Historically, electric consumption has grown as income has risen. With more disposable income, people have increased their purchase of goods such as major household appliances, convenience and entertainment items, temperature- controlling devices, and safety equipment (including electric lighting). Sales of these energy-consuming products have in turn raised the demand for electricity. The actual measurement of income could be on national, state or county level. The characteristics of the service area would dictate which is most appropriate. If the service area covers most of a state or if it has a representative mix of c-1 APPENDIX C FORECASTING METHODS FOR ELECTRIC DEMAND ORM B-9 ELECTRIC UTILITY SURVEY OF DATA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRIFICATION PLAN FOR THE MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND EL Ici NAME OF UTILITY HOURLY SYSTEM LOADS - 1396 RECORD THE HOURLY PEAK LOADS FOR THE WEEKS OF 1396 THAT INCLUDED THE: A. ANNUAL SUMMER PEAK (DATE ) B. ANNUAL HEATING PEAK (DATE ) C. MINIMUM ANNUAL PEAK (DATE ) MW OR MWh/h a 5 FRIDAY| SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY THURSDAY , U t —— ee _ ir [alsic a YB le alalclalsl[cilals [cla [pi|c | alate | i ee r + ToT TT T at. c [1 rT 114 | I +] ©} /} OO} SJ] GY Ut) [Lo] NO] Br | PEA tt Ht 4 | _| } jij jj it HTT 114 aoe PRPTRP W} Co] SI] Oy UT DATE OF FORM COMPLETION: NAME & TITLE OF PERSON SUPPLYING INFORMATION: NAME OF PERSON COMPLETING FORM EXHIBIT 1.2-1 10 of 10 | pons B- 8 : f 4s ATA _FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIFICA PLAN FOR THE MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND ELECTRICITY P: NAME OF UTILITY ee be HOURLY SYSTEM LOADS - 1395 _ RECORD THE HOURLY PEAK LOADS FOR THE WEEKS OF 1395 THAT INCLUDED THE: A. ANNUAL SUMMER PEAK (DATE ) B. ANNUAL HEATING PEAK (DATE ) C. MINIMUM ANNUAL PEAK (DATE ) Pa MW OR -MWh/h SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY THURSDAY we $+ — — AVTBIICUI AIBC PA BIC Al Bi {eu |All Bic AN BIC mie ee re eet 1 ‘om i a Te so ce Eee ttt aes ih v4 { | ay a HH a ia aa — Ue aang iH Ec Cg i 4 DATE OF FORM COMPLETION: wane ¢ TITLE OF PERSON SUPPLYING INFORMATION: EXHIBIT 1.2-1 Sikes yp Xe) — [orm B-7 f 4 ” LECTRIC UTILITY SURVEY OF DATA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRIFICATION? PLAN FOR THE MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND ELECTRICITY uy NAME OF UTILITY Pe i 4 t Ci CIDFNT P Time ; of the System Sum of | Est. Est. Peak] Measun Genera- Cocchaed Sales|First 3)/of Peak | With No Syste tion (+) (+) (-) |Columns] Rationed] Rationing | Peak ? MONTH MW MW MW MW MW MW 1 | Muharram ial 2 Safar | 3_| Rab 1 | ea _Rab ll im E 5 Jamad 1 6 | Jamad 11 il L 7 | Rajab m= i 8 | Sha‘ban [| | a 9 | Ramadan | _ [ L al 10] Shawwal [ oH Dhul-Qa'dah 12] Dhul-Hijjah af How were the MW peaks measured? Recording Meters Indicating Meters MWh/h ENERGY ; System | Purchases | Sales |Sum of Est. of Estimated Genera- First 3] Energy Energy tion (+) (-) Columns | Rationed | With No (+) Rationing MONTH MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh Shawwal Dhul-Qa"dah | Dhul-Hijjah L NAME & TITLE OF PERSON SUPPLYING INFORMATION: NAME OF PERSON COMPLETING FORM: EXHIBIT 1.2-1 8 of 10 TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY DATE OF FORM COMPLETION: 1< [Form B-6 LECTRIC UTILITY SURVEY OF DATA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRIFICATIO PLAN FOR THE MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND ELECTRICITY NAME OF UTILITY MONTHLY SYSTEM LOADS - 1395 COINCIDENT PEAKS Time of the System Sum of | Est. Est. Peak | Measur Genera-| Purchase Sales/First 3]o0f Peak | With No Systen tion (+) (+) (-) |Columns} Rationed} Rationing | Peak . MONTH MW 1 MW + MW MW MW | MW + Day| Hr Muharram Safar | ala 4 Rab 1 i Rab 11 T | 5 | Jamad 1 iia ali L ii inna Te | Jamad 11 ‘a L I all = ul Rajab ie [8 | Sha'ban I | | Ramadan if | Shawwal im Dhul-Qa ‘dah | L A [t2{ Dhul-Hijjanh a ml How were the MW peaks measured? Recording Meters Indicating Meters A Mwh/h rT ENERGY System | Purchases | Sales |Sum of Est. of Estimated Genera- First 3] Energy Energy tion (+) (-) Columns | Rationed | With No (+) Rationing MONTH MWwh_ | MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh Muharram mali ij Safar | Rab 1 ee Ne | A ie Shawwal i nina au | Dhul-Qa "dah a 12] Dhul-Hijjah x TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY | J DATE OF FORM COMPLETION: — NAME -& TITLE OF PERSON SUPPLYING INFORMATION: / NAME OF PERSON _ COMPLETING FORM: EXHIBIT 1.2-1 Teese ? { | FORM B-5 ELECTRIC UTILITY SURVEY OF DATA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRIFICATION | PLAN FOR MINISTRY OF IND RY D_ ELECTRICITY i NAME OF UTILITY TRANSFORMER STATION DATA 1. OBTAIN OR MAKE A ONE-LINE DIAGRAM OF EACH TRANSFORMER STATION WHOSE HIGH VOLTAGE IS 33Kv OR HIGHER, SHOWING THE TRANSFORMER BANKS, CIRCUIT BREAKERS AND THEIR ARRANGEMENT AND GIVING THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: TRANSFORMER BANKS MANUFACTURER, MVA RATING AT 50°C, SERIAL NUMBERS, VOLTAGES, TAPS, CONNECTIONS (Y, %, OR4), AND REACTANCE HIGH AND LOW VOLTAGE CIRCUIT BREAKERS MANUFACTURER, SERIAL NUMBERS, VOLTAGE, CURRENT CARRYING CAPACITY AND INTERRUPTING CAPACITY 2. OBTAIN OR MAKE ONE-LINE DIAGRAMS WITH ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA OF COMMITTED AND PLANNED TRANSFORMER STATIONS. SUBSTATION DATA 1. OBTAIN OR MAKE A ONE-LINE DIAGRAM FOR SUBSTATION WHOSE HIGH VOLTAGE IS LESS THAN 33Kv AND INDICATE THE MVA AND VOLTAGES. TRANSFORMER LOADINGS 1. OBTAIN THE MAXIMUM MVA LOADS ON ALL THE TRANSFORMER STATIONS AND SUBSTATIONS FOR BOTH 1395 AND 1396. MISCELLANEOUS DATA 1. DOES THE UTILITY HAVE CENTRALIZED DISPATCHING? IF SO, PLEASE DESCRIBE. 2. DOES THE UTILITY HAVE AN ENGINEERING OR COMMERCIAL COMPUTER? IF SO, PLEASE DESCRIBE. DATE OF FORM COMPLETION: NAME & TITLE OF PERSON SUPPLYING INFORMATION: NAME OF PERSON COMPLETING FORM: EXHIBIT 1.2-1 6 of 10 Ea | FORM as TRIC UTILITY SURVEY OF DATA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRIFICATION ¥ i 3 PLAN FOR THE MINISTRY OF NDUSTRY AND ELECTRICITY SUMMARY OF SYSTEM GENERATING CAPACITY t Xx Fxisting Capacity Committed Additions Planned Additions No. Total | Total No. |Total |Total No. | Total [Tota >LANT of Nominal] Depend- of Nominal} Depend- of Nominal | Depend- TAME Units | Capa- able Units| Capa- able Units} Capa- able city Capa- city Capa- city Capa- MW city MW city MW city Mw MW Mu ee |e L a tT He EEL Total Existing | j Nevendable Capacity ' FUTURE STATTO at { T re a COL ae t STOLL $ Total Committed Dependable Capacity | Total Planned Dependable Capacity SUMMARY OF PROJECTED GROWTH OF T DEPENDABLE CAPACT TY OF 7 SSE ‘ —— Dependable Capacity of the:| 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 198 senerators 1n service at the end of 1975 MI at Sommitted Generation Nena t >lanned Generation sseoinenaay ai Total Generation i rirm Purchase Agreements M' { al | lit Pirm Sales Aareements MW | | | i Mv | ! | { i i al DATE OF FORM COMPLETION NAME & TITLE OF PERSON SUPPLYING INFORMATION: NAME OF PERSON ZOMPLETING FORM: EXHIBIT 1.2-1 q of 10 * i a ka a laa eeeeuentesieneethtereieeniethintetitemmcamadteomenentaestenions tain aeell LL -* | FORM Bel ELECTRIC UTILITY SURVEY OF DATA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELECTRIFICATION PLAN FOR THE MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND ELECTRICITY NAME OF UTILITY INFORMATION ABOUT THE GENERATING STATION SYSTEM FRFOQUENCY 50Hz Exist (E),committed (C) or Planned (P) T Unit Number T 2 T Diesel (D) or Combustion Turbine (CT) 3 r In Service Date i! Nameplate MVA 5 Nameplate Power Factor (P.F.) 6 Nominal MW. (MVA x P.F.) 7 T Nameplate Voltage (KV) By Prime Manufacturer 9 Mover Serial Number TIO Genera4 Manufacturer tor | Serial Number 5 [— R.P.M. 13 WRZ 1r4y X'd 15 xX"d 16 L Max. unit output in MW when not limited by ambi- One Hour Two Hours {18 Continuous ent temp. for a period of: Max. unit output in MW when limited by a 50°C. One Hour 20 Two Hours |21 lamb. temp.for a period of: ay Continuous Mode of] Auto(A) Semi-Auto(S) Manual (Operat.| Base (B) Inter (I) Peak (P) Standby(S)|24 de (M) [23 Full Load peel 374 Load 26 Consumption | 172 Load ¥ inor Operating Hours Between Ne intenaias Last Year Done 29 TT Major Operating Hours Between 30 aintenance |Last Year Done [31] [ For 1395 [No. of Forced Outages 32[- L hat was | Duration of Forced Outages a2 the: | Type of Fuel Heat Content J/] or J/m> Cost Fuel SR/1 or SR/m *Continued on Form B-2 NAME & TITLE OF PERSON SUPPLYING INFORMATION: a DATE OF FORM COMPLETION: NAME OF PERSON COMPLETING FORM: EXHIBIT 1.2-1 2 of 10 APPENDIX B SAMPLE TECHNICAL SURVEY FORMS APPEND1X 3-A Part 2 TYPICAL CRITERIA FOR DETERMINING "AD HOC" GENERATING PLANT MARGINS AT CRITICAL PERIODS* Predominantly Thermal Systems Largest generator out of service. Largest and second largest generator out of service. Largest generator and largest transmission link out of service. Judged percentage of system peak demand from past experience. * Reproduced from IBRD Public Utilities Department Publication, "Generating Plant Reserve Margins," June 20, 1973. A 22 (b) Automatic checking of limits and security criteria at five-minute intervals. A computer at the control center for digital LFC, economic dispatch, automatic limit checking with annunciation, updating load forecast, on-demand check on reserve, inter-change transactions, river-flow forecasts, and quick access to files containing procedures, etc. An automated mimic diagram of the 230 kV and 500 kV system will show status of all circuit breakers and certain key line loadings and bus voltages. No firm plans; have recently installed a digital LFC, economic dispatch and display system. Large computer system for digital dispatch, security monitoring, contingency checking, displays, etc. A- 21 19. What switches in the operating center although grouping of equipment must be done in the field. (a) Outage is planned one week ahead. (b) Neighboring systems are notified, if affected. (c) At the appointed time the system is checked for unusual conditions and line loadings are checked. (d) System operator has the authority to cancel the request if conditions warrant. Request is given to the outage scheduler a few days in advance. He has two days to analyze the situation and hand the request over to the system dispatcher along with his recommendation. System supervisor may cancel the request at the last minute if system conditions are abnormal. Seventy-two hours notice is required for the EHV grid and twenty-four hours for other transmission lines. Operators will consult with operating engineers for approval of request in case of doubt. Usually a load flow with this piece of equipment out of service will have been run. Operators have sets of system diagrams showing the load flow solutions. Request is made one week in advance by regional dispatch office. Clearance is required from the system operating center and the pool operating center. In many cases the pool center will run a dc load flow to check conditions. Major maintenance jobs are planned two years in advance. additional facilities are planned to aid the operator in monitoring the system and assessing its security? A. (a) System security monitor program - an on-line load flow program, implemented on a hybrid computer, which will check system conditions with up to 100 contingencies every 15 minutes. (b) System monitoring program - will alert operator when telemetered system variables approach preset limits. (c) Off-line load flow program for operator use. Considering new dispatch computer for additional applications - VAR dispatch and possibly interface with supervisory control equipment for initial attempts at direct digital control. (a) New computer and display systems in Pool Operating Center with remote displays in system operating centers AL 20 five-minute reserve requirement. This program is continually updated by shift staff. (a) Units are usually kept on-line apart from maintenance periods. (b) Instantaneous pickup requirement must be met. (c) Economic dispatch usually does a good job of distributing the reserve. (d) The economic dispatch program has two sets of high limits - high sustained limits and high regulating limits. By operating at or below the sustained limit, the spinning reserve requirement is always satisfied. (a) Twenty-four hour unit commitment handled by pool - Master Schedule program handles reserve requirements and checks worst contingencies using a de load flow. (b) Line loading limitations are factored into economic dispatch through high and low limits. 17. Are you able to predict individual bulk loads? A. 18. What is Do not predict individual substation loads but do predict total pool load which for load flows can be distributed to substation buses, using distribution factors. Yes, within a few percent using historical data. Yes, within 3 to 5% for the next day. Load forecast program for total load can predict within 1 to 5% usually. A 10% error is considered very bad. Do not. Short term forecast of total system load is accurate to about one and one-half percent. Do not do this - predict total load. Use historical data, e.g., last week's log for same day. the procedure followed prior to the removal of a major line or other equipment? A. B. Advance clearance is required from the pool center. Twenty-four hour advance notification is required. System operator has the authority to clear or reject the request. Operator has supervisory control of breakers and disconnect A- 19 (ii) What percentage of the generation is under load frequency control (LFC)? By About 75% including those units on limits. B. 70-80%. Cc. Minimum requirement is 7% for regulation. D. About 25%. E. Practically all. F. The minimum requirement is 1% of the operating capacity for regulation. (iii) Remarks A. High limits on units are often determined by factors such as stack emission and these limits may be exceeded in emergencies. B. Regulating capacity is usually carried on two or three stations. 16. What are security limitations on unit commitment and economic dispatch? A. (a) Twenty-four hour unit commitment program takes into account the reserve requirements and is checked by a load flow for poor or impossible operating conditions. (b) Line loading limitations factored into economic dispatch through high and low limits. B. (a) Reserve requirement factored into unit commitment. (b) Reserve requirement factored into economic dispatch through high generator limits. Ge (a) Unit commitment is planned five to six hours in advance to provide for increasing demand including scheduled changes and reserve requirements. (b) Southern end of system has VAR problems and this has to be factored into the unit commitment. (c) Rate of response of all units has been tested and this is factored into the unit commitment. De Unit commitment is done manually 24 hours in advance - takes into account system VAR requirements, system security limitations, and rate of response of units with respect to the 14. 15. After a second contingency. Spinning reserve low; generators heavily loaded or approaching their VAR limits unscheduled generator outage; heavily loaded lines. Bad weather - sleet, electrical storms (under these conditions operators try to increase margins from limits - particularly stability limits). Loss of primary protection, e.g., carrier. Inadequate spinning reserve and/or regulating margin; overloaded transmission lines and/or tie-lines. What types of contingencies are considered in operations? (i) A. Next contingency and, in some cases, a second contingency will be considered by the System Security Monitor (SSM) program (see answer to question 20). A total of about 30 contingencies will be investigated. Worst single contingency - loss of unit, line, or transformer. Operator monitors first and second most heavily loaded lines - considers what would be the loading on one if the other were lost. Worst single contingency - loss of unit, line or transformer. First contingency. Operators try to ensure that system can always withstand the next contingency (single outage of a line or unit from the system's current operating position, i.e., some equipment may already have been lost). What percentage of the generation is responsive to frequency changes through governor action? A. Br 100%. 100%. All but a few steam plants which have blocked governors due to stack emission problem. 100% except under unusually high river flow conditions a few hydraulic plants will be operated at full gate. 100%. 100%. Ly) Tie iZ. 13. What added information would be valuable for the operators about the system status and dynamic behavior, if cost were no object? What A. VAR flows, voltages at more buses, breaker status generator phase angles, more frequency readings, major line flows and adjacent systems. On-line load flow; dynamic board showing line flows, etc.; breaker status on the EHV transmission grid. Breaker status on bulk system; more voltages and other variables from substations; whether or not a fault is permanent; an on- line load flow and stability analyzer. On-line load flow; related criteria monitoring; automatic contingency evaluation; corrective evaluation prescheduling evaluation; dynamic dispatch board showing bulk powerline - flows, breaker status, tie-line loading; EHV transmission line loading and breaker status; CRT displays for information presentation. Power flows on every transmission line; load projection; status of EHV transmission and major generating units in neighboring systems. communications exist to other system centers? A. Under A. Voice via telephone, microwave and space radio, teletype giving weather; daily planned outages; operating reserve and special notifications; and direct computer-to-computer data transfer channels. Phone - adjacent systems notify each other of major maintenance work or outages. Phone - communicate only if a major element is to be removed for maintenance, or if the system is not satisfying the pool criteria. Phone, teletype giving daily planned outages, expected reserve and inter-system loading. Phone. Phone, teletype giving weather, daily planned outages and operating reserve. what conditions does the operator feel that the system is insecure? Insufficient reserve; over-loaded lines; and low bus voltages. A- 16 10. What Senior dispatcher. System supervisor on shift and outage scheduler. Chief dispatcher. At the pool level--the Interconnection Dispatcher and at the system operating center - the Shift Supervisor and Power Director. factors, variables, and trends are watched for security reasons? A. Reserve; nearly all line and transformer loadings, tie-line loadings for normal and emergency limits (particularly an underwater cable), load trend; pool control error, net interchange limits, frequency; some voltages. Reserve; frequency; transformer loadings (system has abundant transmission strength - transformers are limiting factor); voltages; area control error. Reserve; line loadings (particularly metropolitan cables); tie- line loadings; frequency; area control error; voltages. Reserve; line loadings, voltages; and load angle meter with respect to limits -in a tight situation it is left to the judgment of the operator as to whether some of the limits are met or not. This would depend on the possible consequences - whether a small area may be affected or whether the system as a whole is vulnerable. In normal operation the margins between system variables and the limits are also left up to the operator's judgment -if he feels that the system is in some way vulnerable (see question 13) he will attempt to maintain greater Margins. Frequency; interconnection loop loadings; tie-line loadings - some of the inter-ties have directional power relays. The operators are aware of the relay settings and monitor the line loadings accordingly. Frequency, net interchange and net interchange deviation, spinning reserve, regulation margin, bulk power transmission line loading, bulk power transformer loading, tie-line loading, and protective relay settings. Reserve, line loadings with respect to normal and emergency (24 hr.) limits, tie-line loadings, some voltages (usually held within 2%); frequency; loading of metropolitan cables with respect to power-relay settings. a&- & Gc) (4) (b) (c) (d) (b) (c) (b) (c) units). Gas turbines take from three to ten minutes and diesel units about seven minutes. System has some interruptible loads. Ready reserve equipment is the sum of the two largest units in service. Spinnng reserve should be greater than the largest unit in service. Distribution of reserve - no more than 15% of the spinning reserve on any one unit nor more than 25% in anyone plant. Spinning reserve on any steam unit should not exceed 25% of its capability. Operating reserve - loaded within five minutes and equal to largest single contingency plus 100 MW. Spinning reserve component equal to two-thirds of operating reserve. Distribution of reserve - no more than 10% of any thermal unit. Ready reserve - coverage for units undergoing commissioning with full load availability for one hour. Instantaneous pickup -- additional capacity available within five seconds in the event of under-frequency. Spinning reserve - difference between actual generation and the high regulating limits on the LFC equipment. The individual unit limits are set by the plant operators. Requirement is the largest risk plus regulating margin which is typically about 7%. Ready reserve - off-line gas turbines and hydro plants which are available but not included in spinning reserve. Spinning reserve - on-line capacity available within ten minutes. Scheduled reserve - capacity that has been scheduled to operate and can be made available in 30 minutes. Operating reserve - sum of spinning and scheduled reserves. Who is responsible for security monitoring? A. Pool coordinator. B. The operator responsible for generation and interchange schedules. A- 14 (iii) To what extent do planning people make use of data collected by operations people? A. Attempts are made to reconstruct certain disturbances or very heavy loading conditions for reports to management. Actual system readings are taken once a week at minimum and maximum load levels - these are sent to the planning department. Abnormal conditions are reported daily to the planning department. Readings of actual system conditions, reports of system difficulties, summaries of the studies made by the System Performance Group, and outage data on lines and equipment are used by planning people. Data on outage rates of generators and transmission components is collected by operations personnel. Readings of system conditions and disturbance data are summarized annually or on request and given to planning. Nearly all raw data for planning studies originates with operations personnel. Data on unusual conditions is collected and sent to planning. Some attempt is made to reconstruct severe transients although this is very difficult. One problem is the lack of records of generator VARS during a transient. 8. Categories of reserve and associated criteria used in operations. A. Assured reserve -- additional capacity available within five Minutes of which at least two-thirds must be spinning - requirement is one and one-half times the largest commitment of any unit. (a) Spinning reserve - additional capacity on-line and immediately available for loading - usually about 10%. (b) Contingent capacity - subset of the spinning reserve purchased under contract from a neighboring utility. (c) Ready reserve - additional capacity available for loading within five minutes. (d) Distribution of reserve - no more than 16% on any unit. (a) Operating reserve -- difference between peak load and available firm capacity (including net firm commitments). (b) Ready reserve - amount of reserve which can be made available within 15 minutes (includes firm power from A - 13 (ii) What lines. Results of important load flow studies are reviewed with operators. The subcommittee on bulk power has members from both planning and operations. EHV studies performed by planning department are reviewed, particularly with regard to operating limits Operators are given manuals of operating procedures; polygon charts showing tie-line import and export capabiities under certain specified line or unit outages; monitor sheets listing the critical lines which should be monitored under these outages; table of distribution factors for every transmission line and for the outage of each generator and most of the lines in the system; manual of system diagrams showing load-flow results for typical operating conditions with the outage of certain major lines and units - these load flows are run for operating people during an annual training course given by the planning department. additional studies are requested by the operations personnel? In the case of late delivery of major equipment or significantly higher load than was forecast, updated planning studies are necessary. Occasionally, when a situation arises which has not been studied, operators can ask for a load-flow study. An operations group acts as liaison between operations and planning. This group can run load flows within about two hours. Studies are made of the effect of contingencies on top of a specific outage in cases where studies have not previously been made. The System Performance Group within the operating department is continuously studying the system in order to determine the operating limits which will ensure that the security criteria are met. Routine load flow and stability studies are performed and studies are made of conditions up to a year in advance. At the request of the outage scheduler, a load flow can be run within an hour. On request, the operations study group performs load flow and stability studies for the operators. These study results are expressed in terms of loading guides and operator bulletins. Now that operators have the above load flows and distribution factors, requests for load flows to be run by the plannng group would only be made in very unusual circumstances. During heavy peak load conditions planning personnel are sometimes present in the operating center to monitor the system and consult with the operators. A- 12 (e) This department also checks operating conditions one to four years ahead using their own 150-bus load flow program. F. Majority of the planning is done five to ten years ahead. 6. (i) How do you make use of data from adjacent pools or systems? A. Use common data banks. B. Joint meetings of the entire interconnection coordinating group are held four times a year. Also, joint planning meetings are held with neighboring systems. c. Data for use in load flow studies will be exchanged in a common format as of 1/1/70. Work on a common exchange format for other data is underway. The data is used in all bulk power system planning studies. D. Have formed joint planning committees with neighbors. E. Have data for interconnection studies up to 1975. F. Have records of hourly loads for the past 12 years of neighboring pools and systems. Also have forecast peak loads years - some as far out as eight years. Load flow and stability data of neighbor pools is regularly used in studies. (ii) What additional data would be useful and why? A. Would like more accurate data of the type we already have. Ts Planning/Operations Interface (i) In what way do operators make use of planning information? A. (a) Operators have tables of transfer limits, graphs of incremental transfer capability, and a list of critical and limiting facilities together with possible remedies. (b) Operating personnel are involved in the short-range planning studies. Operators have system diagrams showing the results of load flow studies. Operators manual containing rules, recommended procedures and general information. Operators have a set of rules or limits on line loadings, voltages, etc. Operating limits are established for a range of generation patterns and for outages of critical transmission A- 11 Because of the demands_ placed on operators by the interconnections, less time is available for analysis of contingencies. Yes, maybe. One of the big problems is getting qualified and experienced personnel. What is the time scale involved in planning? A. (a) Major studies are seven to nine years ahead. (b) Studies are made one and two years ahead for tie-line limits. (c) Possible but improbable contingencies are considered four to five years ahead. (d) Some studies made up to twenty years ahead. (a) Major studies are made five years ahead. (b) Studies to determine operating limits, etc. are made one to three years ahead. (c) Initial speculative plans are made ten years ahead. (a) Generation planning five to six years ahead. (b) Major transmission planning four years ahead. (c) Studies are made one year ahead because of revised load forecasts. (d) Studies concerning right-of-way and EHV levels are made up 10 years ahead. (a) Generation planning six to seven years ahead. (b) Major transmission planning five to six years ahead. (c) Studies concerning right-of-way made ten to twenty years ahead. (a) Generation planning at least five years ahead. (b) A workable system is planned ten years ahead. (c) Some preliminary studies are made up to 20 years ahead. (d) Detailed planning four years ahead is done by operating department. A - 10 (i) (ii) (c) Stability studies run for several swings and system considered stable only if it exhibits positive damping. (d) Initiating disturbance is, except where stated otherwise, a permanent 3g fault with normal clearing. (e) Pre-disturbance steady-state conditions are taken as worst cases within the constraints of normal operation. (a) Approximately 1000 bus studies. (b) Usually 2 sec. runs. (c) Stability decision: yes/no. (d) Stability problem is, in general, worst at light load levels, when some of the longer lines have their heaviest loading. (e) 1, 2, and 3g faults, and delayed clearing are studied. Because of increasing interconnections, is it becoming more difficult to consider enough contingencies? A. ¥, Yes, the difficulty is data gathering although the trend toward data banks will help. Not now, but this will be a problem in the future. Yes, large interconnection studies now being made. Yes. Yes, attempts are made to increase security margins because of this. Yes, although new computer system will help a great deal. Is more of a burden being placed on the operators? A. Yes, although they have more help in the way of automatic equipment. Not now, but this will be a problem in the future. Yes Yes. (b) (Cc) (a) (b) (a) (b) (c) Voltage tolerance 5%. Post-fault studies made under conditions where lines are heavily loaded. 400 bus studies of own system. Up to 1000 bus interconnection studies. Approximately 1000 bus studies. Voltage tolerance +5%, -10%. Most’ lines constrained by thermal limits-normal and emergency (24 hr.) ratings. Comments on transient stability studies A. (a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) Stability decision yes/no - although maximum angular swing of the new very large units is now being considered. On the order of 100 studies are made for a given year. Stability studies of own system are only made very infrequently. System has abundant transmission strength and no real stability problem at present. Because of EHV interconnection with neighboring system which is installng new large generating units, stability studies will probably be required in future. Majority of stability runs are two- or three-bus studies for determining critical clearing times. Full scale studies are run to confirm brief studies and for relay coordination, especially on an inter-system basis. The backup relay clearing time is being improved. 500-1000 bus interconnection studies. Stability decision yes/no - certain relays are monitored. Peak load is not the worst case - lines from remote hydro stations are most heavily loaded at off-peak times. Approximately 300-bus studies of own system. 700-1000-bus interconnection studies. F. (b) (d) ratings, or departure from scheduled voltage at the subtransmission level. Any of the contingencies listed in (iii) should not result in, a protracted interruption of major load; a cascading event resulting in loss of major load; automatic under- frequency shedding of major load; transmission element loadings in excess of emergency ratings; or unsatisfactory voltage at the subtransmission level. Studies will be made to determine the effect of the contingencies listed in (iv). In the event of undesirable system perfomance, such as cascading, consideration will be given to alternate system designs and additional installed equipment. Decisions will be based on the severity of the possible incident compared with the capital expenditure needed to alleviate the problem. A separate set of criteria are applicable for the interconnection as a_ whole. These are similar to the above, but pertain primarily to the effect of a disturbance in one system on all neighboring systems within the interconnection. System should withstand any of the design criteria (ii). Comments on load-flow studies A (a) (b) (c) (b) (a) (b) (c) (a) Up to 800 bus studies. Voltage tolerance usually 5%. Most lines constrained by thermal limits-normal and emergency ratings (winter and summer) - only a very few by relay settings. 200 bus studies of own system - larger interconnection studies made jointly with neighbors. Voltage tolerance 10% although deviation of more than 5% considered abnormal. Interconnection studies up to 1400 buses are made. Voltage tolerance usually +5%, -10%. Most lines constrained by thermal limits normal and emergency ratings. 500-1000 bus interconnection studies. (v) Transmission strength and loading criteria A. (a) Voltages, line and equipment loading should be within normal limits prior to any disturbance. (b) Voltages, line and equipment loading should be within applicable emergency limits for the post-transient conditions following any of the contingencies listed in Ga). (c) Under normal inter-system power transfers, the systems should maintain synchronism for any of the contingencies listed in (ii). This criterion should also be satisfied after ome generator, circuit, or transformer has already been lost, providing that there has been time for readjustment of system generation following this outage. (d) Under emergency inter-system power transfers, the systems should maintain synchronism for the loss of a generator or a permanent 2¢-to-ground fault on any element. (e) Studies should be made to determine the effect of the contingencies listed in (iv) and plans should be made to minimize the spread of any interruption that might result. System should withstand the worst single contingency. Within the limits of normal operation, the steady-state conditions prior to the outage used in the study should be chosen such that the effect of this outage is maximized. (a) For any of the contingencies listed in (ii) there should be no low voltage or overloaded elements. (b) For any of the contingencies listed in (iii) there should be no loss of load or cascading. (c) Load flow and stability studies are made to test the bulk power system for the extreme contingencies listed in (iv) with regard to preventing widespread outages or loss of load. (d) Interconnection capability is evaluated under circuit and tower outages. Same as A. (a) Any of the contingencies listed in (ii) should not result in: interruption of load (except when served by a_ single transmission element, and excepting minor loads following contingency (ii) (c)); automatic under-frequency load shedding, transmission element loading in excess of normal A- 6 (iv) Possible but improbable contingencies A. (a) (b) (c) (4) (e) (£) (a) (b) Loss of entire generating plant. Loss of all lines from a substation. Loss of all circuits on a common right-of-way. Permanent 3g fault with delayed clearing. Loss of a major load. Large tie-line surges due to external disturbances. I Loss of a double circuit tower line with any other circuit shutdown. 2. Loss of any power plant or EHV station. S)5 Loss of Right-of-Way. Backup clearance of a 3¢ breaker failure on the EHV system. Same as A. Outage of one generating unit and one of the following: (a) (b) (d) (a) (b) (c) (4) (£) 3 phase fault with delayed clearing. Loss of entire generating plant. Loss of all circuits on a common right-of-way. Loss of an entire substation. Loss of entire generating plant. Loss of all circuits on a common right-of-way. Loss of all lines of one voltage emanating from a substation. 3¢ fault on most critical transmission line with tripping (before adjustment) of another critical line. Multi-phase fault with delayed clearing. Loss of a large load or major load center. E. (iii) Unlikely A. B. Outage of one generating unit and one of the following: (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) Loss or interruption of a single transmission element (line, breaker, transformer, etc.) Loss of a generator. Loss of two lines with time for system readjustment between the two outages. 3¢ fault with proper clearing. Single ¢ fault-to-ground with breaker or relay failure. Loss of any single generator, transmission line, transformer or bus. After system readjustment the additional loss of any generator or transmission line. contingincies Permanent 36 fault on both circuits of an EHV double circuit tower line with one circuit cleared in primary time and a backup clearance of a 3 breaker failure on the other. Loss of any overhead circuit during any bus shutdown at 85% load level. Outage of one generating unit and one of the following: (a) (b) (c) (d) Simultaneous loss of two lines. Phase-to-ground fault with delayed clearing. Loss of all circuits on a common tower. Loss of two generators or one generator and one line with time for system readjustment between the two outages. B. SECURITY ASSESSMENT QUESTIONNAIRE Security criteria used in planning (i) Installed generating capacity A. B. Loss-of-load probability less than one day in ten years. Installed reserve planned to cover the largest hazard - about 15% of peak load. Loss of load probability -- one day in 20 years. Same as A. Criterion for installed reserve is based on a curve of probability of surviving every hour of the year versus installed reserve. The amount of installed reserve is found from the knee of this curve. This point for present conditions corresponds to a loss-of-load probability of about one day in 20 years and an installed reserve of about 18 %. Loss-of-load probability one day in ten years. Summer peak load is forecast using estimated standard hot, humid weather -- this has a 50% probability of occurrence over the 3-1/2 month summer period. No major maintenance is scheduled over the summer period. (ii) Design contingencies A. (a) Permanent 3¢ fault on any element. (b) Permanent phase to ground fault on same phase of both circuits of a double circuit line. (c) Permanent phase to ground fault on any element with delayed clearing. (d) Loss of any element (including a generator). Loss of any generating unit, transformer, or single circuit. (a) Loss of any single element with any single generator out of service at peak load. (b) Backup clearance of a single-phase breaker failure for a 3¢ fault on the EHV system. (c) Backup clearance of a 3¢ breaker failure on the HV system. Same as A. assess the vulnerability to disturbances of a current operating state, and to determine whether or not to issue a clearance for maintenance work, an operator must at present rely on whatever information and guidance has been provided for him by the planning department, on past operating records, and on his own judgement based on experience. Information provided for the operators includes operating limits for specific system conditions, the results of load flow programs run in advance for a set of outages, and, in some cases, distribution factors from which an operator can estimate what the real power flows on the system would be following the outage of a generator or transmission line. In most companies, the operators may request additional studies to be performed by planning, or by a _ special study group within the operating department; but here the time factor is important. Entering the appropriate data into a plannng-type program takes considerable time. In general, such a procedure is feasible only for scheduled clearances. Some companies have already implemented some security programs on their dispatch computers. Most of these fall into the category of system monitoring and limit-checking; however, on-line load flow programs for contingency checking are planned for the near future. In many cases these are dc load flow programs which will check only real power flows. Checking of potential voltage or reactive power problems would require a full ac load flow. There are presently no plans for the implementation of an on-line transient stability program and hence operators will have to rely on the planning department to provide operating limits for which the system will always be stable, providing, of course that a situation does not arise which was not foreseen by the planners. Finally, in the area of generation planning, the probability of loss-of-load is used as an index of security. This index is of no use to an operator since it concerns only installed capacity over which an operator has no control. The only quantity currently available to operators which could be considered as a security index is the amount of spinning reserve. This quantity is used in an attempt to measure the system's ability to withstand generator outages and abnormal load increases. APPENDIX A Part 1 SECURTY ASPECTS OF PLANNING AND OPERATIONS CURRENT INDUSTRY PRACTICES* A. INTRODUCT1ON In order to make a meaningful study of ways in which a computer could aid a power system operator in assessing the security of his system, it was necessary to ascertain the current views of the industry on system security, methods which operators presently use to assess security, and measures which they take to ensure that an adequate security level is maintained. At the beginning of the study visits were made to several companies and power pools. These organizations vary widely in size and geographic location and it was hoped that they would constitute a sample representative of the industry. During these visits, discussions were held with representatives of both the planning and operating departments. The design of a secure system is the function of the planning department and so it was considered important that both viewpoints be obtained. A questionnaire on the security aspects of planning and operations were completed during each of these visits and a summary of the results of this questionnaire is included as part B of this section. The questions concentrated on the security criteria used both in planning and in operations, the means by which it was determined whether or not the system actually met these criteria, and on the exchange of information between the planning and operatng departments. It was found that at the planning level, the criteria were, in general, well defined and comprehensive, whereas, at the operating level, this was not always the case. The planning department designs the system to withstand all reasonably probable contingencies. Hence, for most of the time, operators do not have to worry about the possible effects of unscheduled outages. Their normal security functions include the responsibility of maintaining adequate generating capacity on-line and ensuring that system variables, such as tie-line flows, remain within the limits specified by the planners. However, because of the very nature of power systems and the uncontrollable factors involved, conditions do occur which were not foreseen by the planners. Here the operators’ responsibility increases. From the questionnaire it was concluded that in view of increasing inter- connections, larger and larger generating units, and the rate of system growth, the responsibility of operators for system security is increasing. In order to * Reproduced from "Bulk Power Security Assessment," prepared by the IBM Research Division for the Edison Electric Institute (Research Project RP 90-3), November, 1970, Vol. I, pp. 211-227. A= 1 APPENDIX A SECURITY ASPECTS OF PLANNING AND OPERATIONS APPENDICES Security Aspects of Planning and Operations Sample Technical Survey Forms Forecasting Methods for Electric Demand Optimum Alloc. of Hydropower Resources Methodology for Joint Scheduling & Control Simulation of Hydropower System Operation Dynamic Generation Capacity Planning Environmental Considerations for Thermal Generation Environmental Considerations for Transmission Systems Some Envir. & Health Aspects of EHV Incorporating Inflation Expectations IDB - Guide for Prep. of Feas. Studies APPENDICES The summary of the results of investigation and long range planning studies. Reports of the studies should be attached as supporting documents. = Construction program and plan of construction management. 5. Estimated cost of the project. Foreign currency and local currency requirements, shown separately. 6 Investment budget and financial plan. i. Program for investment and disbursement of funds. 8. Economic and financial feasibility Results of operation - projected new utility and financial return forecast. The work procedures and contents of the feasibility study listed above indicate that the results of planning analyses made are the major information for such a study. Technical justifications made based on a _ logical methodology and professional judgement will be acceptable under any type of financing. The terms or conditions for economic justification may not be the same for various financing agencies. Normally, the financial sources will not be determined in the course of power system planning study. If an adequate methodology is selected for the planning study, the results of the economic justification should not be changed by the employment of different ways of presentation. The economic feasbility may need to be made case by case according to the terms or conditions established by the financing agency. The situation for making financial feasibility studies related to various types of financing are similiar to economic feasibility studies. They should be considered case by case. With the aid of computers, the studies can be made readily by adopting available programs to meet individual needs. SECTION 9 PROJECT FEASIBILITY AND FINANCING 9.1 INTRODUCTION The technical, economic, and financial feasibility of an electric power system development project recommended for implementation must be established for loan application or for the final approval by the authorities concerned. Typical guide lines for the preparation of feasibility studies for the application for a loan from an international financing agency is shown in Appendix 10. The requirements for information, the forms of presentation, and the methods of the justification will vary somewhat from one agency to another, but the general approach will be the same. The procedures for making feasibility studies are summarized below. The result of studies made for the selection of the favorable project (or projects) will be the supporting documents for the feasibility studies. 9.2 PROCEDURES FOR A FEASIBILITY STUDY The contents of a typical feasibility report are listed below: i. Description of present status of power supply in the project service area. The general characteristics of the service area, demand and supply of the power system for the service area, captive generating facilities and present conditions of power system should be described. 2. Description of Executive Agency. The organization and functions of the executive agency should be described. The facilities in operation, work under construction, results of operation, tariff schedule and revenue income, management and operation procedures, operating and expansion problems, personnel, use of consulting firms (if any), special situations existing and anticipated, financial statements and statement of cash flow should be described. The supporting documents should be attached. 2. Plan for development. The contents should include but not be limited to the following items: Background, purpose and general policy. Market information - load forecast. Energy needs and generating capacity required. Power resources capable of development. SECTION 9 PROJECT FEASIBILITY AND FINANCING SECTION 8 PROCEDURE FOR COMPARING ALTERNATE SYSTEMS The planning process is one of optimizing choices among many variables. Unit costs vary with size and capacity of equipment, loads vary with time, and construction and operating costs vary with economic conditions. The method of economic analysis chosen for a study must recognize not only these variables but also the time-value of money. The alternate development plans to be considered will give rise to different capital investments and different operating expenses, both occurring on different time schedules. The generally accepted method of reconciling the many variables and reducing the expenses associated with alternate plans to a common basis for comparison is to evaluate the present worth of future revenue requirements for each plan. The annual revenues which must flow into an electric utility to support a specific pattern of capital investment include revenues to: 1. Repay the funding agencies or investors their capital (i.e. depreciation). 2. Provide a return to the agency or shareholders for their invested capital. 3. Pay the operating and production expenses for the energy supplied. 4. Pay for maintenance, insurance, and other miscellaneous items related to the investment (including income and ad valorem taxes where appropriate). The sum of these annual costs constitutes the future revenue requirements generated by the investment pattern. The composite of all installations for a plan yields a series of nonuniform annual revenue requirements. To compare plans on a uniform basis, each future revenue requirement is reduced to its present worth by compound discount calculations, the discount rate being the expected return rate demanded for future investments. Present worth of future revenue requirements for each plan then forms a common basis of comparison among plans. It is a measure of the relative impact on the total economy of the country of implementing each plan. SECTION 8 COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE PLANS Described above are some of the options available to be considered in the design of a power system. Although, as has been indicated, there are many computational aids available to assist in the design of a system, it must be emphasized that the success of the planning effort is in large part due to the experience and ingenuity of the planning engineer. He is the one that must supply the ideas and, in the last analysis, weigh the available alternatives to produce the final recommendations. these categories. Other important analyses which must be made are the determination of the availability and characteristics of fuel to fire the plants, the environmental effects of stack emissions, and the effect of the heat discharged to the cooling water. Many of these analyses have been programmed for a digital computer.The speed and availability of digital computers has made it possible for the planning engineer to examine many more alternatives in formulating his system plans than was possible previously. Typical of the computer programs that might be used in generation planning are those that calculate system reliability, production costs over the life of the plant, the optimum allocation of hydro resources, and some overview type programs which generate optimized generation expansion programs using either linear or dynamic programming techniques. 7.3. TRANSMISSION PLANNING The transmission system is the network of lines which connect the generating stations to the major load centers. The system planner has a variety of options available to him. Overhead transmission voltages up to 765 kV ac are in wide use today in various parts of the world, and experimental work is being done on voltages in the 1200 kV range. Direct current lines are in use at voltages up to +600 kV. Underground cables are operating at voltages up to 400 kV. The practical length of underground ac cables is limited by their capacitive charging current. De cables do not suffer this limitation, however, and consequently are frequently used for long runs, particularly underwater. To aid in the design of a transmission system, the planning engineer also has a number of computer aids. Chief among these is the load flow program which allows him to determine system voltages and line loadings for a variety of network configurations under both normal and emergency operating conditions. Other important analysis programs include stability programs which determine the system stability under fault or other abnormal conditions, and transient analysis programs which evaluate the effect of switching or lightning induced surges on the network. There also are programs available to determine short circuit currents throughout a network. 7.4 DISTRIBUTION PLANNING The distribution system, that part of the system which delivers the power to the customer, usually represents at least 50% of the total investment of a power system. Distribution feeder voltages are common up to 34.5 kV, and secondary voltages up to 380 volts. Distribution may be either threephase or single- phase, radial or networked. The distribution planning engineer must analyze this system and determine the most economic combination of elements. He also has computer aids to help him. There are programs available which will evaluate the economics of alternative distribution plans for serving future loads and determine feeder loading, voltage profiles, short-circuit currents, and automatically locate capacitors. The computer program automatically adjusts for these end effects by adding appropriate amounts of thermal capacity to equalize energy availability. The thermal base and peaking capacities used in all alternatives will have the same capacity, production cost and initial capital investment. 4) The present worth of investment, fuel and O & M costs will be determined for each of the expansion plans using a range of economic parameters (cost of money and incremental fuel escalation). The base data and assumptions that will be made in these three components of cost are discussed below: a) Investment costs for transmission and substations included in B/C calculation will also be included with hydro project capital investment for the evaluation calculations. b) The fuel costs will represent the cost of thermal energy generated to supplement hydro resources. The computer program evaluates thermal fuel costs based on the average energy availability from hydro resources. That is, available hydro energy available from existing and presently committed resources supplemented by the average energy contained in the particular new hydro developments added in the expansion plans. ic) For the purpose of this evaluation, only the variable 0 & M costs will be used for thermal resources. Fixed 0 & M costs of thermal units will not have a significant effect on the ranking of hydro alternatives and, therefore, will not be included. The same computer program that will develop expansion plans using above methodology will also determine the present-worth cost of each of the alternative expansion plans. Present-worth cost of each of the cost components will be computed for a range of interest rates to examine the expansion plan's sensitivity to the cost of money. Fuel costs will also be escalated to determine the sensitivity of the results to variations in fuel cost. Thermal Generation Fossil-fired steam generation is flexible as to unit size. Steam-driven turbine-generators are available in sizes ranging from a few megawatts to a thousand megawatts. They are constrained, however, in location due to their need for cooling water and, particularly in the larger sizes, by the need for convenient access to large quantities of fuel. There are several types of studies which must be done in order to determine the proper size and mix of generating units for the expansion of a system. These include studies to determine the proper reliability index to be used, the proper mix of unit types, i.e., baseload, intermediate or peaking, and the proper unit size in each of 3) Evaluation of Hydro Sites - Generation Expansion Plan The purpose of this evaluation is to determine the least-cost expansion plan and identify sites to be investigated further in prefeasibility studies. Using candidate hydro sites with benefit to cost ratios of one or greater, various alternative hydro expansion plans will be developed. These generation expansion plans will be evaluated by computing present worth cost of all investments and annual system operating costs. Discussion of the evaluation study in greater detail is as follows: 1) Timing of hydro resources additions is affected by (a)the existing and committed resources available prior to the development of the new hydro-potential and (b) the firm energy content of each candidate site within the particular expansion plan. Firm energy and capacity from existing and committed pant will be determine initially. Hydro resources will then be added as dictated by the load requirements and the energy available. A computer program will check the energy balance, i.e. comparing load energy and total energy available from thermal and hydro resources and adds new hydro resources to supplement deficiencies. Only primary energy will be assumed for hydro resource additions. 2) The same computer program checks for peak balances and adds thermal resources whenever the reserve margin falls below system requriement. For the purpose of determining the "firm" hydro capacity, that is, the capacity corresponding to the firm hydro energy, an integrated demand curve will be used. This is accomplished by dispatching firm energy of the hydro plant on the integrated energy curve to determine the firm capcity it will contribute. The program adds the "firm" hydro capacity to the existing thermal capacity and compares this with the peak system load plus reserve. If adequate reserve is not available, peaking generation (gas turbine or diesel) is added to provide for the required reserve margin. Peaking capacity added to adjust reserve margins will be assumed not to contribute to the energy availability of the connected resources. 3) In order to evaluate expansion plans on a common base, end effects will be taken care of by insuring that the energy availability from thermal and hydro resources are the same at the end of the expansion period studied. The energy availability from hydro resources will be the same of primary energies of each hydro resource contained in the particular expansion plan. 7-6 Annual Value of Hydroelectric Development The annual value will consist of two components: (a) a capacity value which corresponds to the fixed elements of cost of power supply from thermal resources, and (b) an energy value which corresponds to the variable elements of the cost of power supply from the "alternate" steam plant. In determining capacity value, this study will assume that the alternative steam plant capacity would be equivalent to the firm capacity of the hydroelectric plant. The firm capacity of the particular hydro plant will be determined by the available primary energy. An examination of the estimated 1989 load duration curve will be made to determine where on the curve the next hydro unit would be dispatched. This would be the basis for selecting an equivalent thermal plant to determine capacity value of the hydroelectric plant. The firm thermal capacity displaced by the hydro development will be evaluated on an annual basis by multiplying the capital cost of the equivalent thermal capacity by the annual charges required to carry the capital investment. The value of the energy produced for the particular hydroelectric plant will be assumed to be the increment cost of energy that would be obtained from the above steam plant. This cost is made up of both the fuel cost and the incremental variable 0 & M cost. A computer program will be used to facilitate the computation of B/C ratios for the various hydro sites. The major economic parameters affecting B/C are the cost of money and the "differential" fuel escalation; i.e. the escalation of fuel costs over and above inflation. A range of interest rates and differential fuel escalation rates will be used to give a measure of sensitivity for each particular site to variations in interest rates and fuel price fluctuations. The B/C analysis will assume benefits to accrue from the date the plant is placed in service. Investment costs will be referred to the base year by including interest during construction, disbursement schedule of the various investments. As a result of this study, the sites which are considered uneconomic vis-a-vis thermal will be dropped from further analysis. However, they will be included in the total ranking list of sites evaluated. Information to be gathered includes surveys, determination of potential site locations, initial cost estimates, initial estimates of firm and secondary energy available, etc. 2) Inventory Assessment and Ranking of Sites Preliminary benefit/cost analyses will be made for each and every site identified on the survey. The benefit to cost (B/C) ratio of the hydro sites will be obtained by comparing the annual value of the hydroelectric power to the annual cost of the hydroelectric development for both the power plant and associated transmission facilities. For the purpose of this analysis, B/C ratios will be developed assuming that the total average annual energy produced by the hydro plants can be _ absorbed into the system at the time the plant is connected to the system. Annual Cost of the Hydroelectric Development The annual cost attributed to the hydroelectric plants comprise the following components: Annual fixed costs of the plant will represent carrying charges on the capital investment required for the particular hydro site. These charges will include: interest (cost of money), depreciation, and allowances for interim replacement and insurance. The cost of money will reflect "real" conditions; i.e., it will exclude all expectations of inflation. For the purpose of sensitivity analysis, a range of interest rates will be used. Annuity depreciation (future worth to annuity) will be used to amortize the capital investment. The depreciation will be based on a book life of 60 years for the hydroelectric plant. The use of annuity depreciation will provide for the replacement of those units of property included in the plant with life spans less than the assumed overall facility service life. The total cost of the hydro development will include the cost of transmission and substation facilities which are required to transport the hydro output to load centers. The "transmission lability" will be that portion of the cost which is directly attributable to the specific hydroelectric plant under investigation and will comprise interest, depreciation, interim replacement and insurance. Estimates of annual operation and maintenance cost of hydro plant will be made. 7) 8) 9) All of the sites will be ranked in ascending order, considering the above benefit/cost factors, For those sites nearly equal in benefit/cost ratio, preference will be given in ranking order to those having the least exposure to outages from transmission failures. For those cases in which it is obvious that combining two or more individual sites will be treated as a separate case in the ranking procedure. By means of computer programs, all practical combinations and sequences of installing the potential hyro developments will be investigated to determine the least-cost present-worth of expanding hydro capabilities. This least-cost plan will consider both the increase in capacity and energy requirements, as well as economic dispatch of old and new hydro and of the old thermal units, together with reliability and reserve requirements. Annual load duration curves will be used in the above evaluations. The above computer programs will indicate which sequence of hydro sites should be developed and the timing of each to result in the least cost of owning and operating the entire development plan. It will also indicate the installation and timing sequence of the next best plan, the next best plan and so on. STAGE II - Prefeasibility Study of Preferred Site A preferred site will be selected for further analysis in a prefeasibility study. 1) 2) 3) 4) The following work will be performed in this Stage II: Prior to selection of a site for further prefeasibility studies, all cost estimates and site characteristics of the sites indicated by Stage I will be reviewed and confirmed. Any changes from preliminary estimates will be reviewed to determine if results of Stage I are still valid. A review will be made of the sites to determine if any combination of these, where one interacts with another, would result in a more favorable situation than considering a single plan alone. For the preferred site (or combination) chosen, an initial optimization study of dam height and capacity will be made for one height, both above and below that initially chosen for study. This will indicate whether further height and capacity optimization studies need to be made at a later "Feasibility Study" stage. A further site investigation will be made of the chosen site(s) to confirm prefeasibility, stopping short of drilling extensive test holes to confirm geology. Methodologies To Be Used in Study 1) Hydrological Investigation and Field Surveys i-3 factors will impact the amount of electric energy that can be generated to supply the load. Outlined below is an example of a hydroelectric inventory and feasibility study which might be performed as the first step in considering a hydro development. REGIONAL HYDROELECTRIC INVENTORY AND FEASIBILITY Purpose The broad purpose of a hydroelectric inventory and feasibility study is to determine the location, size, and the most economic installation sequence of hydro development. All possible potential new sites in a region should be considered, both those which have been previously identified and new sites not yet identified. Overall Study Procedure and Scope of Work Stage I - Inventory and Evaluation of Hydro Sites The following work will be performed in Stage I: 1) All previous studies by others assessing potential hydro sites will be reviewed and updated as required. 2) From study of geographical and hydrological data, all other potential sites will be identified. 3) Each potential site will be assessed from its physical and hydrological features as to its prefeasibility for hydro development. Estimates will be made of the potential amounts of firm and secondary energy which could be made available at each site, together with the cost of each development. All sites with potential for less than 30 MW will not be considered further. 4) The load forecast will be reviewed and used as a basis for forecasting the future system demand and energy requirements. The distribution of loads between various load centers will also use this forecast as the basis for estimating specific transmission requirements. 5) An estimate will be made of the probable transmission cost associated with each site to reach the main transmission grid, or reach specific load centers. 6) The site developement cost and its associated transmission cost will be combined to obtain investment cost. Primary and secondary energy costs will be calculated. Each site develoment will be evaluated as to its benefit/cost ratio when compared to an equivalent amount of capacity and energy from thermal energy source. SECTION 7 IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE PLANS Tal INTRODUCTION The work described in the previous sections has identified the loads that must be served during the study period, the existing facilities available to serve these loads, and the reliability criteria which the future system must meet. From these, the planning engineer must devise various alternative ways in which the existing electrical systems can be modified, or new facilities built, to supply the perceived needs in a logical manner. The recommended procedure for developing alternative plans is first to determine the generation required to deliver supply the projected load, next determine the transmission required to transmit the generation to the load centers, and then determine the distribution system necessary to carry the power to the individual consumers. The techniques and tools available to the engineer in planning each of these three parts of the power system are described below. 7.2 GENERATION PLANNING The basis for the development of a generation plan is a determination of the available generation alternatives: hydro, fossil-fueled thermal, nuclear, and in some instances the more esoteric forms of generation such as solar, wind power, or fuel cells. For each type of generation which is identified as a feasible candidate for inclusion in the generation mix, such data as unit capacity, capital and installation costs, production cost, outage rates, operation and maintenance costs, and in the case of hydro units, available energy, must be determined. From this data the annual owning and operating costs as well as the cost of energy from the facility can be developed and used as a basis of selection of the proper mix of units. Hydro-Generation Hydro power may be the run-of-river type with little or no storage. It may be pondage type with varying amounts of storage and head. Or it may be pumped- hydro where the storage pond is refilled by using excess off-peak energy from other sources. In order to incorporate hydro generation into a system, the planner must know the energy and capacity available from the units and determine the optimum use of this generation with regard to the daily, weekly, or monthly demands. He then can determine the residual demand that must be supplied by other generating sources. In addition to determining these factors for a single hydro development, the planner must consider the effect of other hydro stations in the same watershed and treat the entire basin as an integrated energy resource. Also, it is necessary to consider other uses of the dams, such as flood control and irrigation supply, and the use of the rivers for navigation. All these SECTION 7 IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE PLANS Generation Projects Selection of the size of the units Operating characteristics Environmental impact study Siting study Cost analysis Additional Studies For Hydro Power Projects Preliminary layout Selection of dam height Optimum energy generation Rule curves for reservoir operation Allocation of cost among end users for multiple purpose project. Transmission System Planning Load flow analysis Stability study Transient phenomena analysis Switching Overvoltages Reliability analysis Power system control study Insulation coordination Selection of compensation equipment Environmental considerations Selection of the route of transmission lines Selection of the site of substations Capital costs and loss evaluations SECTION 6 ANALYTICAL METHODOLOGIES 6.1 INTRODUCTION The analyses normally undertaken for the development of electric power systems are outlined in the following paragraphs. The selection of analytical methodology depends on the availability of facilities, the time frame of the study, and the depth and accuracy required for the results of the study. By the use of digital computers, planning methodologies have been greatly improved in the past twenty years. As a result, not only are study results more accurate, but sensitivity studies, so important in dealing with future uncertainties, are made more economically. Typical analytical methodology developed for some specific problems are shown in Appendices D, E, F, G, and H. 6.2 SCOPE OF ANALYSES Generation System Reliability Analysis Operating Performance (Economic dispatch) Economic Generation Mix Cost Analysis Capital cost Production costing Fuel inventories Environmental cost System cost analysis Timing of unit additions Marginal cost analysis SECTION 6 ANALYTICAL METHODOLOGIES Techniques may also be classified as: Deterministic Probabilistic The probabilistic approaches are most appropriate when considering a large number of customers within a given classification, and are widely used in these instances. Large industrial and governmental load, however, must be treated deterministicly as separate entries even when stochastic approaches are used for the majority of the customers. 5.3 APPROACHES TO LOAD FORECASTING Some questions influencing the selection of the approach to be used in making a load forecast are: : ds Should peak demand be predicted using forecast energy and load factors, or should it be forecast separately? 2. Should the total forecast be determined by combining forecasts of appropriate load components, or should the total forecast be directly extrapolated from historical load data? Se Should average or extreme weather conditions be used? 4. Should simple forecasting methods be used or should more sophisticated mathematical procedures be investigated? 5. What is the purpose of the forecast? = to develop a system plan? = for generation-transmission planning? = for distribution planning? s for financial projections? = for rate design studies? Answers to questions like these influence the selection of a forecasting approach. For example, national or regional generation-transmission planning studies require use of macro approaches, while distribution planning is effectively implemented only by use of micro-area forecasting techniques. The forecaster must consider the purpose of the forecast, the quality of historical data and other system conditions, and make judgements based on the best available information. 5.4 FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Forecasting is a systematic procedure for quantitatively defining future loads. Depending on the time period of interest, a specific forecasting procedure may be classified as a short-term, intermediate, or long-term technique. Forecasting techniques may be divided into three broad classes: Extrapolation Correlation Combinations of extrapolation and correlation Public Buildings Hospitals Schools Offices Others The classifications are selected by the forecaster in accordance with the actual condition of the individual power system. The characterisitcs of each class of customer are different. The load classes often are studied and forecast individually and then together, taking diversity and other factors into account. Generally, the following characteristics are considered in the load forecast: Load Characteristics Maximum demand Minimum demand Total energy Load factor Power factor Load curve or shape Factors Affecting Load Variation: Weather conditions Economic factors Per capita income Inflation Business cycles National Energy Policies Availability of Power Supply With the assistance of digital computers, the more uncertain factors can be varied to show the sensitivity of the results of the forecast to changes in the assumed values of the parameters. SECTION 5 LOAD FORECASTING Sui INTRODUCTION Load forecasting is the first step of power system planning. Both demand and energy requirements are important. Demand forecasts are used to determine the capacity of generation, transmission, and distribution system additions. Energy forecasts and load shapes determine the type of facilities required. Load forecasts are also used for financial and economic analyses and projections. The accuracy of a forecast is crucial to any electric utility since it dictates the timing and characteristics of major system additions. The forecast depends on the judgement of the forecaster and it is impossible to rely strictly on any one analytical procedure to obtain accuracy. However, confidence in forecasting results can be enhanced by using, where applicable, a variety of analytical techniques and by undertaking a regular review and updating of the many factors requiring judgement on the part of the forecasters. Appendix C describes four load forecasting techniques that have been successfully applied in both developing countries and for established utilities in the United States. 5.2 CLASSIFICATION AND CHARACTERISTIC'S OF LOADS The load requirements and rate of growth for various type of customers are different. Customers may be classified broadly as follows: Residential Commercial Large Small Industrial Large Small Transportation Railroad Highway Street lighting SECTION 5 LOAD FORECASTING National energy legislation Environmental protection legislation Tariff Electric power legislation Water rights Rights of way Latest Technical and Cost Information For Materials and Equipment. 4.3 TECHNICAL SURVEY Several types of technical surveys have been made by utilities or national power agencies in many countries. National Energy Survey In the United States the federal power commission undertook national energy surveys in 1964 and 1972. Several supplementary surveys were made from time to time. Information shown in these reports are widely used by the Utilites in UISA. Many develploping countries have undertaken national power surveys in the recent years, either directly or with the technical and financial assistance of other organizations. The results of the surveys are valuable in the establishment of national policy and in providing a basis for the planning efforts of those responsible for national and regional power system development. Inventory Survey of Hydro Power Resources This type of survey is very popular in many countries having hydro power resources. After the first inventory survey is made, gaging stations will be set up at strategic locations to monitor the inflow condition of the rivers or streams. Technical Survey of the Existing Power Facilities This type of study is made to serve several purpose. Some utilities make the study under the name of assets evaluation to determine the updated value of the facilities. The ultimate objective is to establish the rate base for the develpment of electric power and energy tariffs. Some utilities undertake the study to test the performance of the system to establish the reliable capability of the equipment, and identify areas needing improvement. Transmission System Lines - Voltage Length Single and double circuit Conductor size and configuration Insulation level Substations Arrangement and connections Size of transformers Distribution System Records of major facilities Reports of Power System Analysis Special technical problems and the means of remedy or improvement Statistical Records Related to Economic Development Population Energy production by categories Map and records of energy resources Per capita income Price index Future Plans Related to Development of National and Regional Econony Industrial development Agricultural development Commercial development Transportation system Rules and Regulations SECTION 4 COLLECTION OF INFORMATION AND TECHNICAL SURVEY 4.1 INTRODUCTION Much of the information required for planning studies is normally collected from historical records and documents of the agencies, ministries, or other organizations responsible for electric power and water resource development. In some cases where the information on energy resources, the perfomance of the existing power system, load characteristics, etc. is inadequate or out-of-date, a technical survey may be required prior to conducting planning studies. The information required for planning studies is outlined in Section 4.2 and the concepts of a technical survey are described briefly in Section 4.3. 4.2 INFORMATION FOR SYSTEM PLANNING The following information is required for power system planning studies: Historical Records of the Electric Power System Demand and energy generated and consumed by service areas, and by customer categories. Service area boundaries Financial records Capital investment and operating expenses Balance sheets Technical information for existing power system one-line diagrams and maps Generating stations Rating Performance Operating records SECTION 4 COLLECTION OF INFORMATION AND TECHNICAL SURVEY Under normal operating conditions, all breakers are closed and both buses are energized. A circuit is tripped by opening the two associated circuit breakers. A tie breaker failure will trip two elements, but only one element is lost if a line trip involves failure of a bus. breaker. Some characteristics of the breaker-and-a-half arrangement are: Either bus may be taken out of service at any time with no loss of service. With sources sharing a bay with loads, it is possible to operate with both buses out of service. Breaker maintenance can be done with no loss of service, no relay changes and simple operation of the breaker disconnects. The breaker-and-a-half arrangement is more expensive than most other schemes. However, is is superior in flexibility, reliability, and safety. Distribution transformer loads are usually low load factor and seasonal as compared to the high load factor, base loading of bulk transmission substations. Due to their smaller size and the general availability of spares, the repair or replacement time is far shorter than for the larger transmission transformers. With the low load factors and relatively short repair times, the probability of the outage of a distribution station transformer at time of peak load with the subsequent heavy loading and loss of life of the remaining transformer capacity in the affected station is low. Therefore, the distribution system supply stations have often been planned using the forced-cooled ratings of the transformers in instead of the self-cooled ratings. Circuit Breaker and Bus Arrangements In some countries substations are designed with a single bus, single breaker arrangement. However, where there is rapid and substantial increase in loads, a more reliable and flexible arrangement is sometimes desirable. Therefore, the ring bus and the breaker-and-a-half schemes should be considered as arrangements for use in the transmission substations; the ring bus generally applied when the number of elements to be switched is six or less, and the breaker-and-a-half for more than six. While there are other possible bus arrangements, these two have more desirable advantages. In the ring bus scheme, the breakers are arranged with circuits or transformers connected between breakers. There are the same number of breakers as there are elements (lines or transformers) to be switched. During normal opeation, all breakers are closed. For a circuit fault, two breakers are tripped and, in the event one of the breakers fails to operate to clear the fault, an additional circuit will be tripped due to operation of breaker-failure backup relays. During breaker maintenance, the ring will be broken, but all lines will remain in service. The circuits connected to the ring are arranged so that sources are alternated with loads. For an extended circuit outage, the line disconnect switch may be opened and the ring can be closed. No changes to protective relays are required for any of the various operating conditions or during maintenance. The ring bus scheme is economical, reliable, and safe for operation. Further, it is flexible and normally considered suitable for important substations up to a limit of six elements. It is common practice to design and build major substations initially as a ring bus and for more than six elements, develop them into a breaker-and-a-half scheme. The breaker-and-a-half scheme has three breakers in series between two buses. Two circuits are connected between the three breakers, hence the term, "breaker- and-a-half." This pattern is repeated along the main buses so that one-and-a- half breakers are used for each circuit. Possible But Improbable Contingency Criteria Consideration will be given to the following unlikely contingencies: Ls Loss of an entire generating plant. 2. Loss of all circuits on a common right-of-way. Sie Loss of all lines of one voltage emanating from a substation. 4. Three-phase fault with delayed clearing. In the event that undesirable system performance, such as cascading, seems to be a likely result, consideration will be given to alternate system designs and additional installed equipment. 3.4 SUBSTATION TRANSFORMER AND CIRCUIT BREAKER ARRANGEMENTS A number of factors must be considered in the selection of the transformers and circuit breaker arrangements in a substation. The station must be reliable, economical, and safe. The design should be as simple as possible, and provide for future expansion, as well as the maintenance of the transformers, circuit breakers, and switches without interrupting service. Different equipment selections and substation bus arrangements come about as emphasis is shifted between the factors of reliability and economy as determined by the function and importance of the substation. Transformers A transformer is a very reliable piece of equipment, and though failures are uncommon, provision must always be made for that unlikely occurrence. Therefore, in each substation (or in substations in an area with adequate tie line capacity) there must be transformer capacity available to permit the load to be supplied in the event of transformer trouble. In the bulk transmission system, the transformer sizes should be chosen so that the failure of a transformer will never restrict the transfer of power from the generating sources to the load areas. In a long range plan, it is often proposed that each substation in the bulk power system will have two transformers with characteristics such that one of them can carry the total load with minimal loss-of-life should the other fail. The transformers in these stations might normally operate with only self-cooling, but, when one was not available, forced cooling would be used. For example, a 500 MVA transformer station might have two transformers, each with a self-cooled rating of 300 MVA and a forced-cooled rating of 500 MVA. All the transformers in the bulk power system will not be of this capacity, but they will be physically large, and damaged transformers would likely have to be returned to the factory for repairs and hence be unavailable for a long time. A substation supplying the distribution system does not require the same conservatism in loading of transformers as the bulk transmission stations. SS As individual systems grow and transmission alternatives come under study, expecially between regions, generating capacity is planned on the basis of a loss-of-load probability criterion (LOLP). That is, a statistical approach is adopted, and the probability of having enough generation (in spite of forced and scheduled outages as possible load-forecasting errors) to meet the load is evaluated. If the expectation of generation deficiency is greater than a specified frequency, such as one day in five years, increased generation or similar corrective action is undertaken. 3.3 TRANSMISSION LOADING AND RELIABILITY Typically, performance of the overall electric-supply system is designed to meet three different sets of operating conditions. These criteria are: Normal System Operating Criteria tr. All equipment shall operate within normal thermal ratings for the prevailing ambient temperature, elevation, and wind conditions. 2. Voltage limits for operation of the transmission network shall not vary more than + 5% from nominal voltages. Emergency System Operating Criteria 1. The entire system shall be designed to withstand the outage of any single generation or transmission element without: a. Creating loading above the emergency rating on any equipment remaining in service, and without bs Requiring voltage variation in excess of +5% to -10% from nominal voltages on the transmission network. ax After readjustment following the foregoing loss, the system shall be capable of withstanding the additional loss of any generator or transmission line without interrupting the supply to densely populated areas, industrial load areas, or spot loads requiring high reliability. Je The system shall be designed to remain stable following: a. A three-phase line-end fault at any major generating source, and bs The sudden loss of any major generating unit. SECTION 3 PLANNING CRITERIA 3.1 INTRODUCTION Planning criteria are the conditions for technical performance required to obtain effective and economical operation and to insure that the bulk power supply system will not suffer area-wide cascading and collapse. The criteria are used in the testing of alternate system development plans so that they will meet standards of performance consistent with the stages of development of the various regions of the country under study. In many instances, for example, in the early years of system growth there will be a number of separate regions which will operate independently of the other regions. For this time period, the alternate plans for any one of these regions are developed and compared with a common set of planning criteria. However, the criteria for one region may differ from those from another region, as one region may be highly developed with an established generation and transmission system, while another region may have a much lighter load density and a less developed bulk power system. Customarily, the selection of standards of reliability for generation and transmission planning is based on historical operating experience and a correlation with other power systems of generally similar size and characteristics. As background to this selection, summaries of international planning practices as they affect system reliability are given in Appendix A. In this appendix, Part 1 is reproduced from the report, "Bulk Power Security Assessment," prepared by the IBM Research Division for the Edison Electric Institute (Research Project RP 90-3), November, 1970. It essentially presents the results of a survey of American practices and provides a wealth of detail. Part 2 of the Appendix is reproduced from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Public Utilities Department Publication, "Generating Plant Reserve Margins," June 20, 1973. The planning standards outlined below are derived from this background. They are presented as examples of criteria which have been employed successfully in designing electric power systems. 3.2 INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY Often in the very early stages of system development, and for the rural isolated regions over longer periods, the installed generating capacity is made at least sufficient to supply the expected peak load when the largest generating unit is out-of-service because of a forced outage. When this criterion is just barely met, the implication is that normal maintenance of generating units is scheduled during off-peak periods of the year. SECTION 3 PLANNING CRITERIA REFERENCE: U.S. CONGRESS, JOINT COMMITTEE ON ATOMIC ENERGY, “CERTAIN BACKGROUND INFORMATION FOR CONSIDERATION OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY DILEMMA" U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, MAY, 1973 NUCLEAR pe: HYDROELECTRIC 05 ———> me REJECTED ENERGY GEOTHERMAL END USES NATURAL GAS . {IMPORTS| —> f. NATURAL GAS C . o. RESIDENTIAL & (DOMESTIC) Y AOL’ rw an COMMERCIAL ——<_—_> coAL ———- USEFUL ENERGY. SHALE OIL eearp ol {IMPORTS} aan TRANSPORTATION ott 42 OOMESTIC) (UNITS: MILLION BBLS./DAY OIL EQUIVALENT) PROJECTED ENERGY SOURCES AND USES IN THE UNITED STATES - 1985 REFERENCE: US. CONGRESS, JOINT COMMITTEE ON ATOMIC ENERGY, “CERTAIN BACKGROUND INFORMATION FOR CONSIDERATION OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY DILEMMA" U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, MAY, 1973 NUCLEAR HYDROELECTRIC i” —> cE fecTED GEOTHERMAL ol RE ENERGY NATURAL GAS (aaronts} END USES NATURAL GAS {DOMES TIC] ——e [) RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL coal ——> USEFUL ENERGY on {imPoRTS| ——— |DOME: {DOMESTIC} ——— Ns (UNITS: MILLION BBLS. /DAY Olt EQUIVALENT) a PROJECTED ENERGY SOURCES AND UES IN THE UNITED STATES - 1980 NUCLEAR HYDROELECTRIC GEOTHERMAL —— NATURAL GAS [IMPORTS|——+ NATURAL GAS (DOMESTIC) —————- ou \umporTs} ————e on {DOMESTIC} =o on o4 0.003 REFERENCE : U.S. CONGRESS, JOINT COMMITTEE ON ATOMIC ENERGY, "CERTAIN BACKGROUND INFORMATION FOR CONSIDERATION OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY DILEMMA" U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, MAY, 1973 END USES RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL 15 TRANSPORTATION WW (UNITS: MILLION BBLS. /DAY OIL EQUIVALENT) ENERGY SOURCES AND USES IN THE UNITED STATES - 1970 USEFUL ENERGY — kWh KILOWATT-HOURS AND INCOME PER CAPITA USA - 1930-2000 30,000 20,000 10,000 5,000 1,000 bes acfe, 500 100 800 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME IN 1954 DOLLARS RELATIONSHIP OF PER CAPITA ELECTRIC ENERGY USAGE TO PER CAPITA INCOME REFERENCE: "STUDY AND FORECAST OF THE ELECTRIC pune BUSINESS", CHAS. T. MAIN, INC. 1973 PERCENT 1880 ‘90 1900 ‘10 *20 “30 *40 "50 “60 “70 “80 “90 «2000 ESTIMATED CONVERSION OF PRIMARY ENERGY REFERENCE: TO ELECTRICITY 1882-2000 "A STUDY AND FORECAST OF THE ELECTRIC POWER BUSINESS", CHAS. T. MAIN, INC. 1973 SPECIFIC ENERGY SOURCES AS PERCENTAGES OF AGGREGATE ENERGY CONSUMPTION FIVE YEAR INTERVALS - 1850-1970 HISTORY OF THE MIX OF ENERGY SOURCES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1850-1970 ——— SOURCE: "A STUDY AND FORECAST OF THE ELECTRIC POWER BUSINESS", CHAS. T. MAIN, INC. 1973 to SOURCE: FREMONT FELIX, WORLD MARKETS OF TOMORROW, HARPER & ROW, N.Y. 1972 — 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 10,000 20,000 _ 10,000 5000 SSuwait = oaimith UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE . . £ +} : . W. GERMANY ——————*» [ ° 2000 Lisya7 1000 SAUDI ARABIA 500 . 5 VENEZUELA aoe GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA (US $) °7 RR saunain e RAN 200 1RAQ — ° = OF] KOREA 100-+ ; i INDIA | 504 20+ 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 10,000 20,000 ENERGY PER CAPITA (kg OF COAL EQUIVALENT) RELATIONSHIP OF TOTAL ENERGY USAGE PER CAPITA TO GNP PER CAPITA ten years in the future. It is estimated that power system planning activities require the full time attention of over 2000 engineers in the United States alone. Many more engineers, of course, are required in the design and operation of utility systems. Growth in the amount and quality of electrical supply in any country carries with it a corresponding requirement for planning personnel as well as design, manufacturing, and operating personnel at both regional and national utility levels. Power system development plans need regular review and updating at all levels of a country's power system organization. Nuclear generation is another proven reliable source of electricity and should also be considered. In addition, for the purpose of conservation of consumable energy resources, the renewable power resources such as geothermal, solar, wind, tidal, biomass, etc. have been studied by many countries. It is probable that they will probably play a more important role in the future. The electrical sector of a national economy is only one of the energy sectors. Exhibits 2-5 through 2-7 display some of the complexities of the interrelationships that can exist among the various sources and applications of energy in an industrialized society. A national electrification plan, and future modifications of the plan, should consider these interrelationships. 2.4 THE RELATIONSHIP OF SYSTEM PLANNING TO NATIONAL GOALS Power system planning is the process of defining and evaluating alternatives for adding to the capability of a power system to serve expanding needs. In any rapidly developing country there is likely to be unserved demand in the early years, simply because the many elements of the system from fuel supply through generation, transmission, distribution, and utilization equipment cannot be placed into service immediately overnight. There is clearly an urgency associated with the development of the elecrical system. Rapid, complete electrification is frequently a national goal, since development of so many other sectors of the economy are dependent upon the availability of an abundant supply of electric energy. In order to make maximum use of available generating facilities, rapid electrification requires accelerated construction of regional transmission interconnections. In many instances the regional interconnection system will reduce the reserve capacity requirement, increase the system capability by the effects of regional load diversities. 2.5 THE CONTINUING NATURE OF SYSTEM PLANNING A long-range plan for a power system is essentially a projection of how the system should grow over the next 20 or 25 years, given certain assumptions and judgements about future loads, progress in hydro power development, fuel availability, and costs. Other factors to be considered include an awareness of national objectives; and of social and environmental concerns. In time, any plan can become technically and economically obsolete. New inventions in electrical utilization equipment, or unforeseen industrial, commercial, or residential projects can change load forecasts. Breakthroughs in new generation and transmission technologies, unexpected inflation in equipment or labor costs, or changes in primary fuel availability or cost can all mean system plans should take a new direction. For these and a variety of other reasons system plans must be reevaluated regularly. Thus, periodic re-evaluation is necessary for both short and long range planning activities. In the United State most utilities plan for a twenty year period. However, their projections of loads and system capacity are updated and submitted annually to state regulatory agencies, usually for periods of at least 2 =) Normally, a planning study emphasizes the technical and economic aspects of a developing power system. However, the political, environmental, and legal aspects also can have a major effect on plans and therefore must be considered continually. The outcome of the planning process - a recommended system expansion program - must reflect the assumptions and judgement required to consider the uncertainties and constraints in a rational manner, enabling immediate decisions, but allowing flexibility to adapt to change as the future becomes better defined. 2.3 THE ROLE OF ENERGY IN AN EXPANDING ECONOMY Studies show there is a high correlation between a country's use of energy and its living standards. Exhibit 2-1 relates per capita income and per capita total energy use in different countries of the world. Energy is an important element in relieving problems of poverty and providing for a wide variety of human needs. In the history of any one country, the mix of basic energy sources can be expected to change with time. Exhibit 2-2 shows a pattern of change over 120 years in the United States. Similarly, the share of the total energy picture which is represented by electricity can be expected to vary with time. The pattern of development in the United States over a 90-year period is shown in Exhibit 2-3. In the last 25 years the average annual growth rate of electricity use has been about 8.0 percent compared to a 3.3 percent growth rate in the consumption of all forms of energy. As with total energy use, the average annual kilowatthour usage per capita has proved to be highly correlated to per capita annual income (Exhibit 2-4). In addition, electricity is expected to play an even larger role in the future. Exhibits 2-5, 2-6, and 2-7 give a graphic presentation of the complex interaction of the various energy sources and uses in the United States as they existed in the year 1970 and as they were projected in 1973 for the years 1980 and 1985. The projections would probably be somewhat different if they were made today in view of changes in the energy situation in the United States, but the projected role of electricity is not likely to change significantly. By the year 2000, or earlier, approximately 50% of the total energy is expected to be utilized through conversion to electricity. As an intermediate form of energy, electricity has been adaptable to changes in the primary fuel supply and has provided considerable flexibility in application. These are the principal reasons for its steadily increasing role in expanding economies. The purpose of these comments is to give emphasis to the role of electricity as a significant part of economic development. Electricity will play an ever- increasing role in many countries. Hydro-power has been recognized as an important renewable resource. Its high capital investment; the long time required for construction and the environmental impact are obstacles to the development of this resource. With the advancement of hydro technology, the joint financing of multiple purpose projects, the flexibility of operation and the effects of energy conservation, these obstacles can be overcome. For many countries having abundant hydro reserve, the priority of hydro power development should be advanced. SECTION 2 PLANNING PHILOSOPHY 2.1 INTRODUCTION The ultimate purpose of an electric power system is to provide a dependable supply of electric energy to the end user at minimum cost. Reliability and economics have always been major considerations in power system planning. Electric energy has been called the life's blood of an industrial society. It is a useful analogy. When there is a power system failure most productive work ceases in the service area affected. The longer the outage, the more costly the interruption becomes to society. Manufacturing and process industries stop, transportation becomes difficult, foods begin to spoil, and, in some cases, the social fabric begins to break down. Reliability of electric service is essential. However, the provision of a reliable supply of electric energy is a costly endeavor. For example, the electric utility industry is far more capital intensive than almost any other industrial undertaking. To produce one dollar of annual gross revenue in the United States, an average electric utility must have approximately $4.60 of invested capital. By comparison, the average manufacturer requires approximately $0.54 of capital for every dollar of annual revenue. A typical company engaged in the discovery, production, refining, and distribution of oil must have a total investment of $0.80 for every dollar of annual revenue. Thus, financial requirements of the power system are somewhat unique. This is one reason why economics must play such a major role in power system planning. 2.2 SYSTEM PLANNING Electric power system planning is the process of formulating, analyzing, and evaluating alternative plans for adding to the capacity of a system in a manner that is compatible with everchanging needs. In its broadest sense, it embraces all aspects of the electric system - from fuel resources and generation, through transmission and distribution to the end user. Frequently it also requires consideration of utilization equipment. In addition, system planning must consider design, safety, and environmental factors, as well as other aspects of the electric system dealing with finance, operation and control. The objective of power system planning is to provide utility management with sufficient information to enable decisions to be made today about the system Many years in the future. In almost all cases, planning must be done in the face of considerable uncertainty - as to future loads, future equipment installed costs, future cost of fuel, and the future cost of capital. In practice, power system planning is a complex task involving many uncertainties, as well as technical, economic, political, environmental, and legal constraints. SECTION 2 PLANNING PHILOSOPHY economic electric power system. It must be emphasized, however, that a plan can only give direction at any one moment. It must be monitored and revised with the passage of time as conditions and parameters change. For ths task, there is no substitute for a cadre of trained planning engineers working with the system and its problems on a continuing basis. SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION An ample supply of electric power has become essential to development and growth in all countries of the world. Electric power interacts with many other essential elements of a nation's economy and vitally affects such diverse sectors as industrial development, communications, transportation, and national security. It is a form of energy which is unique in its flexibility in end use applications and its adaptability to many different energy sources. Over the century or so if its existence, it has seen many changes in the means of generation and delivery to the end user. Electricity provides the energy to power factories, irrigate crops, preserve food, and to light, cool and heat homes, markets, and offices. It has served mankind well in that it has been a major factor in relieving problems of health and poverty and raising standards of living. This paper addresses itself to the problem of designing a sufficient, reliable, and economic power system. It has as its premise the facts that in order to achieve economic advancement, the consumer demands for electric power must be met, that the system which supplies that power must be reliable with regards to both quantity and quality, and that the system must be economic from the standpoint of conserving material resources and allowing a balanced development of all facets of a nation's economy. A methodology for planning an electric power system is described. In Section 2 is found a Planning Philosophy. It is the Planning Philosophy, whether stated or implied, that gives consistency and a sense of unity to a plan for development. In Section 3 the criteria to which the system is to be designed are stated. These are typical criteria which have proved effective for both new and established power systems. Section 4 describes the process of collecting necessary data pertaining to the region to be served and any existing power systems. Section 5 pertains to the Load Forecast. The basis of any plan must be a forecast of the load to be served over the study period. This forecast should provide information concerning the magnitude and location of the loads, their composition, as well as the aggregated total. Section 6 describes the methods used to analyze alternate development plans. Section 7 describes the development and analysis of alternate plans, and Section 8 describes the methods for making valid comparisons of alternate plans. In Section 9, Project Feasibility and the requirements of international bank financing are addressed. It is the purpose of this paper to summarize some experience and insight gained in systems for both developing and established power systems in many parts of the world. The procedures outlined here have worked well and provided valuable assistance in making the major decisions required to develop a reliable, SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NEEDS TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Planning Philosophy Planning Criteria Collection of Information and Technical Survey Load Forecasting Analytical Methodologies Identification and Evaluation of Alternative Plans Comparison of Alternative Plans Project Feasibility and Financing Appendices Acknowledgement The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of their associates, Howard C. Barnes, Frank L. Brown, William B. Goodwin, George Nesgos, Roland H. Scott, Richard J. Tucker and Anne Wager to the preparation of this paper. ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NEEDS R. C. Ender F. J. Sherman H. T. Wung PROPERTY OF: Alaska Power Authority 334 W. 5th Ave. Anchorage, Alaska 99501 Chas. T. Main International, Inc. Prudential Center Boston, Massachusetts 02199 Vj Q - Cy