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Comments on Draft Feasibility Study-Clayton Hurless 1994
‘ Copy COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION, | P.O.BOX 45 GLENNALLEN, ALASKA 99588-0045 Glennallen (907) 822-3211 Valdez (907) 835-4301 Telefax # (907) 822-5586 March 24, 1994 Mr. Riley Snell, Executive Director Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority 480 West Tudor Road Anchorage, Alaska 99503-6690 Subject: Comments on draft feasibility study Dear Riley: We have completed the enclosed comments to the Department of Community & Regional Affairs on the draft feasibility study. We dissected the numbers in a-number of different ways, and we are comfortable with the fact that the data is as accurate as possible. We have used supplemental kwh requirements indicated by the medium high and medium low load forecasts in the Beck study, and we made amendments to some of Beck’s assumptions that we have determined appropriate and verifiable. Please refer to Exhibit Al which gives a summary of the power supply options studied. It is readily apparent that the intertie would deliver increased savings each year to the rate payers of this utility. If you have any questions, please feel free to give me a call. Yours truly, Lf. Dist Clayton Hurless General Manager c:\wp\cdh\94-046.jw AIDEA 143 SERVING MEMBER-OWNERS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND VALDEZ COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION, INC. P.O.BOX45 GLENNALLEN, ALASKA 99588-0045 eee elefax # (90 5586 MAR & & 1994 Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority March 22, 1994 Mr. Herv Hensley, Director Division of Energy Department of Community and Regional Affairs 333 W. 4th Ave., Suite 220 Anchorage, Alaska 99501-2341 SUBJECT: Copper Valley Electric Association Comments on RW Beck Draft Feasibility Study as to: Estimated Cost of Power Load Forecast Assumptions Dear Herv: The purpose of this letter is to provide specific comment relative to Table X-5 (Estimated Cost of Power) and general comments on load forecast assumptions included in the RW Beck Draft Feasibility Study dated January 1994. Given we understand the comment period has unofficially remained open for an additional 30 days, we would request this document be included, in its entirety, in the final version of the report. Table X-5 Estimated Cost of Power It is our opinion that the cost of power, as presented by Beck in Table X-5 of the report, does not accurately present the true or expected cost of the power supply alternatives. The attached document presents scenarios under both the medium high and medium low load forecasts for four power supply alternatives. Those alternatives include: Diesel Expansion Case Allison Lake Intertie--Non-Firm Power and Not Integrated into the Railbelt Intertie--Firm Power and Integrated into the Railbelt PWNeE AIDEA 144 SERVING MEMBER-OWNERS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND VALDEZ i Comments on RW Beck Study March 22, 1994 Page 2 The objective of this analysis is to calculate the estimated cost of power which will ultimately be paid by the consumers rather than calculating a cost from the perspective of the State for purposes of comparing study alternatives. Accordingly, certain costs omitted from Beck’s analysis, such as labor and Solomon Gulch cost of Allison power, have been added to scenarios where appropriate. In addition to the aforementioned omissions, several of Beck’s basic assumptions have been adjusted based on our utility experience and expectations of future requirements of the various scenarios. These assumptions are stated on attached exhibits to the report. Finally, the costs, where appropriate, have been inflated using an average rate of inflation of 2.75%. The following table compares the CVEA analysis to Table X-5 from the Beck study. Intertie (nonfirm) oonseunceucceceoceunveremmeoustocecsennconsreclencercenscosorsoencescosed eres cncesencoes dh concenecnccsnced Intertie (firm) As you can readily see, the cost of power as calculated by Beck and CVEA differ dramatically. In our opinion, our analysis provides a much truer estimated cost of power which will ultimately be paid for by our members. We request that Beck examine our assumptions and make appropriate modifications to Table X-5 to reflect, as accurately as possible, power cost based on sound assumptions. We also request this entire document, less the cover letter, be included in the public comments section of the final study. AIDEA 145 Comments on RW Beck Study March 22, 1994 Page 3 Load Forecast General Comment Much has been said about the inflated load forecast upon which the feasibility study is based. It is our opinion that the medium high load forecast is the most realistic of the four scenarios presented for a number of reasons: i It tracks closely with CVEA’s internally prepared Power Requirement Study. 2 The forecast fails to account for any new large loads which have shown historical growth and others that may materialize in the future. 3 The forecast assumes no increase in energy requirements relative to maintenance requirements at the Alyeska terminal facility. In short, there has been considerable public comment focusing on Petro Star as driving the intertie case when, in fact, the study is so conservative as to growth in other sectors of CVEA’s service area, on balance the overall medium high case is, in our opinion, reasonable. As for having a general pessimistic outlook for this part of the world, I would like to draw your attention to Exhibits B2 and B3, which graphically illustrate growth on CVEA’s system in our 35-year history. We urge Beck to remain steadfast in the criticism received relative to the overall medium high load forecast as being a forecast which is defendable, reasonable, and supportable. We would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have about the foregoing or the attached analysis, and we stand willing to provide any additional information necessary to support our analysis. Sincerely, Clayton Hurless General Manager C:\WPDOCS\CDH\94-041.NH AIDEA 146 AIDEA 147 COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC Schedule of Attachments Summary of Scenarios Medium High Load/Medium Fuel Diesel Expansion Case Allison Lake Sutton to Glennallen Intertie Non-Integrated Integrated into Railbelt Medium Low Load/Medium Fuel Diesel Expansion Case Allison Lake Sutton to Glennallen Intertie Non-Integrated Integrated into Railbelt Diesel Expansion Case Assumptions Allison Lake Case Assumptions Intertie Assumptions Sutton to Glennallen Intertie Amortization Schedule Allison Lake Amortization Schedule Diesel Unit Cost Assumptions Diesel Unit Amortization Schedules Table of Load Forecast Results Graphs Illustrating Growth Exhibit Page # Al A2.1 - A2.4 A3.1 - A3.4 A4 AS5.1 - AS.4 A6.1 - A6.4 AT A8 A9 Al0 All Al2 Al3 Al4.1 - Al4.5 Bl B2.1 - B2.2 AIDEA 148 Tv Hqryxg am FILE: SUMCOMP. MARCH 18, 1994 2001 50,386 2002 54,000 1998 38,999 1999 3 SUPPLEMENTARY KWH REQUIRED 42,799 5 UNIT COST OF POWER--~ ALL VALUES EXPRESSED IN LINES 6,7,8 &9 6 DIESEL EXP. COST OF POWER $0.1496 $0.1450 7 ALLISON LAKE POWER COST $0.1383 $0.1264 8 INTERTIE--- NON-FIRM--NON-INTEG. $0.1137 $0.1077 9 INTERTIESFIRMINTEGRATED $0. 0748 $0. 0747 ARE IN $ KWH $0.1420 = $0.1399 $0.2064 $0.1957 $0.1018 $0.0968 $0. 0733 #0. 0721 $0.1366 $0.1872 $0.1024 $0.0712 11 ANNUAL, POWER COST----ALL_ VALUES EXPRESSED IN LINES 12, 13,14 & 15 AREIN $ ANNUALLY 1000) 12 DIESEL CASE (L3 x L6) $5,834 $6,206 $6,614 $7,049 $7,376 13 ALLISON LAKE {L3 x L7) $5,394 $5,410 $9,613 $9,861 $10,109 14 INTERTIE~NON-INTEG, (L3 x L8) $4,434 $4,609 $4,741 $4,877 $5,530 15 INTERTIE- INTEGRATED eS x L9) $2,917 $3,197 $3,414 $3,633 a 845 7 ANNUAL SAVINGS-—-NON: INTEGRATED INTERTIE— ALL VALUES EXPRESSED IN ry 's s ANNUALLY (000) $1,400 $1,847 $959 $3,009 $800 $1,872 $4. aye $3,416 $4,983 18 INTERTIE TO DIESEL (L12-L14) 19 INTER TS re ALLISON LAKE (L13- L14) 21 ANNUAL SAVINGS--—-INTEGRATED INTERTIE--ALL VALUES EXPRESSED IN $s ANNUALLY (000) " 22 = INTERTIE TO DEISEL (L12-L16) $2,917 $3,009 $3,200 $3,416 $3,532 23 INTERTIE TO ALLISON LAKE (L13-L16) $2,476 $2,213 $6,199 $6,228 $6,264 MEDIUM LOW LOAD--MEDIUM FUEL 25 YEAR 26 SELES NT ARY, KWH REQUIRED 1999 37543 2000 38188 2001 38898 1998 — 28 UNIT COST OF POWER----ALL ‘VALUES EXPRESSED iN re 's KWH 29 DEISEL EXPANSION CASE $0.1550 30 ALLISON LAKE CASE $0.1431 31 INTERTIE-CL OR NF-NON INTEGRATED $0.1182 Lo Ee Cem 5 0759 90.1577 $0.1366 $0.1177 $0.0771 $0.1611 $0.2398 $0.1163 $0.1615 $0.2370 $0.1147 $0.0765 $0.1619 $0.2342 $0.1213 $0.0762 34 "ANNUAL COST OF POWER-ALL VALUES EXPRESSED IN $s ANNUALLY 1000) 35 DIESEL CASE (L26xL29) $5,721 $5,921 $6,152 36 ALLISON LAKE (L26xL30) $5,282 $5,128 $9,157 37 INTERTIE-NON INTEGRATED (L26xL31) $4,363 $4,419 $4,441 38 _INTERTIE BITEGRATED. (L26xL32) $2,801 $2, aS $2. 933 $6,282 $9,219 $4,462 $2,976 “40 ANNUAL SAVINGS--NON INTEGRATED INTERTIE---ALL VALUES EXPRESED IN * 's "ANNUALLY (000) 41 INTERTIE TO DIESEL (L35-L37) $1,358 $1,502 $1,711 $1,820 42 ee TO ALLISON LAKE (L36- i oo 70 $4,716 $4, 76) 44 ANNUAL NSAVINGS-~INTEGRATED INTERTIEALL VALUES EXPRESSED IN $'s ANNUALLY (000) 45 INTERTIE TO DIESEL (L35-L38) $2,920 $3,026 $3,219 $3,306 46 INTERTIE TO ALLISON LAKE (L36-L38) $2,480 $2,234 $6,225 $6,243 $1,609 $4 475, $3,397 $6,263 vadlv 6th $4,579 2003 57,516 $0.1341 $0.1802 $0.0892 $0.0704 $7,713 $10,364 $5,130 $4,049 $3,664 $5,234 $3,664 $6,315 2003 40282 $0.1627 $0.2320 $0.1120 $0.0760 $6,554 $9,345 $4,512 $3,061 $2,042 $4,834 $3,492 $6,284 2004 61,012 $0.1395 $0.1768 $0.0862 $0.0698 $8,511 $10,787 $5,259 $4,259 $3,252 $5,528 $4,253 $6,528 2004 40900 $0.1747 $0.2337 $0.1109 sa 0758 $7,145 $9,558 $4,536 $3,100 $2,609 $5,023 $4,045 $6,458 2005 22 $0.1410 $0.1766 $0.0857 $0.0697 $8,689 $10,882 $5,281 $4,295 2005 41509 $0.1755 $0.2317 $0.1098 $0.0756' $7,285 $9,618 $4,558 $3,138 $2,727 $5,060 $4,147 $6,480 2006 62,230 $0.1425 $0.1764 $0.0852 $0.0697 $8,868 $10,977 $5,302 $4,337 $4,530 $6,640 2006 42118 $0,.1762 $0.2298 $0.1087 $0.0755 $7,421 $9,679 $4,578 $3,180 $2,843 $5,100 $4,241 $6,499 2007 62,842 $0.1433 $0.1755 $0.0840 $0.0689 $9,005 $11,029 $5,279 $4,330 $4,675 $6,699 2007 42729 $0.1760 $0.2269 $0.1065 $0.0742 $7,520 $9,695 $4,551 $3,170 2008 63,459 $0.1419 $0.1724 $0.0804 $0.0658 $9,005 $10,940 $5,102 $4,176 $3,903 + $5,838 $4,829 $6,765 2008 43347 $0.1725 $0.2207 $0.1011 $0.0697 Fan 2009 64,084 $0.1436 $0.1723 $0.0800 $0.0659 $9,202 $11,042 $5,127 $4,223 $4,979 $5,915 $4,979 $6,819 2009 43072 $0.1736 $0.2190 $0.1001 $0.0697 SUMMARY OF COST COMPARISONS OF ALTERNATIVE POWER SUPPLY OPTIONS 2010 17 $0.1451 $0.1716 $0.0790 $0.0653 rs 4 $9,390 $11,105 $5,113 $4,226 2010 44605 $0.1745 $0.2165 $0.0984 $0.0688 $7,784 $9,657 $4,389 $3,069 2011 65,359 $0.1464 $0.1716 $0.0785 $0.0653 $9,569 $11,216 $5,131 $4,268 2011 45246 $0.1749 $0.2149 $0.0974 $0.0687 $3,507 $5,316 $4,805 $6,615 2012 66,007 $0.1481 $0.1714 $0.0779 $0.0652 $9,776 $11,314 $5,142 $4,304 $5,472 $7,010 2012 45895 $0.1759 $0,2131 $0.0963 $0.0686 $8,073 $9,780 $4,420 oS 148 $3,653 $5,361 $4,925 $6,632 2013 66,665 $0.1499 $0.1771 $0.0775 $0.0653 $9,993 $11,809 $5,167 $4,353 $5,640 $6,643 $5,640 $7,456 2013 46553 $0.1772 $0.2117 $0.0954 $0.0686 $3,808 $5,414 $5,056 $6,662 2014 67,317 $0.1519 $0.1715 $0.0771 $0.0654 $10,225 $11,545 $5,190 $4,403 $5,035 $6,355 $5,823 $7,142 2014 47207 $0.1786 $0.2103 $0.0947 $0.0688 $8,431 $9,928 $4,471 $3,248 $3,961 $5,457 $5,183 $6,680 2015 67,972 $0.1520 $0.1716 $0.0768 $0.0656 $10,332 $11,664 $0.1773 $0.2089 $0.0939 $0.0689 $8,486 $9,999 $4,495 $3,298 $3,992 $5,504 $5,189 $6,701 2016 31 $0.1523 $0.1697 $0.0764 $0.0657 $10,453 $11,647 $5,243 $4,509 $0.1763 $0.2048 $0.0932 $0.0691 $8,556 $9,939 $4,523 $3,353 $4,033 $5,416 $5,202 $6,585 2017 69,295 $0.1528 $0.1682 $0.0762 $0.0658 $10,588 $11,655 $5,280 $4,560 $0.1757 $0.2009 $0.0926 $0,0692 $4,088 $5,328 $5,239 $6,479 Ost vadlv TeV waryxg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC BASE CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE MWH REQUIREMENT SOLOMON GULCH EXISTING DIESELS NEW DIESELS SGL LOSSES TOTAL REQ TOTAL LESS SOLOMON FUEL GALLONS FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL PRICE OSL FUEL COST LABORA &E LABOR PRODUCTION ADD 3 OPERATORS ADD MAINTENANCE CREW GDP GENERAL GDP UNITS VOP GENERAL VDP UNITS OTHER DSL INTEREST DSL DEPREC NEW DIESEL BLDG NEW DIESELS O&M NEW DIESELS INTEREST NEW DIESELS DEPREC TOTAL COSTS COST PER KWH/SUPP 3/18/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% SCH SCH 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% FIXED FIXED SCH SCH SCH FOUR ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 AVG 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 39,634 40,880 52,364 44,925 44,451 49,462 50,549 51,553 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 22,924 31,618 22,846 14,946 6,488 1,317 1,445 1,573 1,732 4,262 11,300 21,539 32,712 41,630 45,264 48,915 52,338 53,293 (197) {201) (202) (201) (168) (135) (102) (70) (39) 60,399 62,487 72,912 73,702 67,375 80,883 84,494 87,836 91,605 95,385 99,180 102,992 106,606 110,122 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 ' 22,924 31,421 33,945 36,283 38,999 42,779 46,574 50,386 54,000 57,516 2,417 2,611 2,502 2,600 2,760 3,005 3,251 3,484 3,711 13 13 14.5 15 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 0.75 0.771 0.792 0.814 0.836 0.859 0.883 0.907 0.932 1376 1252 1,176 1,412 1,304 1,813 2,012 1,981 2,115 2,307 2,581 2,869 3,159 3,458 84 65 87 79 79 83 85 88 90 93 95 98 100 103 689 750 837 748 756 793 814 837 860 883 908 933 958 985 ° ° ° ° fe) ° o °o 0 330 339 348 358 368 ° ° ° oO Oo Oo o ° ° 110 226 348 358 368 152 89 214 208 166 211 217 223 229 235 242 248 255 262 109 71 285 184 162 235 241 248 254 56 57 59 60 62 75 162 269 141 162 205 211 216 222 228 235 241 248 255 83 288 89 162 156 126 129 132 136 56 57 59 60 62 153 173 38 13 94 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 220 212 205 192 207 179 168 157 147 137 128 119 11 105 235 237 244 244 240 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 ° oO 0 ° ° ° ° 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 °o ° oO ° ° 27 55 85 116 119 123 126 130 133 0 ° oO ° ° 172 346 522 698 678 655 632 607 580 0 oO oO ° ° 132 269 411 558 558 558 558 558 558 3176 3299 3,444 3,383 3,326 4,248 4,822 5,308 5,836 6,201 6,615 7,051 7,377 7,712 $0.1529 $0.1527 $0.1676 $0.1176 $0.1451 _$0.1352 _$0.1420 $0.1463 $0.1496 $0.1450 $0.1420 $0.1399 $0.1366 $0.1341 vadiv LSL OCW NaMXA COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC B CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE MWH REQUIREMENT SOLOMON GULCH EXISTING DIESELS NEW DIESELS SGL LOSSES TOTAL REQ TOTAL LESS SOLOMON FUEL GALLONS FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL PRICE DSL FUEL COST LABORA &E LABOR PRODUCTION ADD 3 OPERATORS ADD MAINTENANCE CREW GDP GENERAL GDP UNITS VDP GENERAL VDP UNITS OTHER DSL INTEREST OSL DEPREC NEW DIESEL BLDG NEW DIESELS O&M NEW DIESELS INTEREST NEW DIESELS DEPREC TOTAL COSTS COST PER KWH/SUPP. 3/18/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2004 52,606 1,937 59,084 (9) 113,618 61,012 3,936 15.5 0.957 3,769 106 1,012 378 378 269 64 262 64 38 98 244 133 173 787 739 8,513 $0.1395 52,606 1,955 59,671 (4) 114,228 61,622 3,976 15.5 0.984 3,911 109 1,039 388 388 277 66 269 66 39 92 244 133 178 751 739 8,689 $0.1410 52,606 2,130 60,100 ° 114,836 62,230 4,015 15.5 1.011 4,058 112 1,068 399 399 284 67 276 67 40 85 244 133 183 712 739 8,868 $0.1425 52,606 2,249 60,593 Oo 115,448 62,842 4,054 15.5 1,039 4,211 115 1,097 410 410 292 69 284 69 42 80 195 133 188 671 739 9,005 $0.1433 52,606 2,368 61,091 0 116,065 63,459 4,094 15.5 1.067 4,369 118 1,128 421 421 300 71 292 71 43 75 Oo 133 193 630 739 9,004 $0.1419 2009 52,606 2,489 61,595 oO 116,690 64,084 4,134 15.5 1.096 4,533 121 1,159 433 433 308 73 300 73 44 70 0 133 198 582 739 9,199 $0.1436 52,606 2,611 62,106 oO 117,323 64,717 4,175 15.5 1.127 4,704 125 1,190 445 445 317 75 308 75 45 26 ° 133 204 563 739 9,393 $0.1451 52,606 2,735 62,624 Oo 117,965 65,359 4,217 15.5 1.158 4,881 128 1,223 457 457 326 at: 316 77 46 18 oO 133 209 479 739 9,568 $0.1464 52,606 2,859 63,148 o 118,613 66,007 4,259 15.5 1.189 5,065 132 1,257 470 469 335 79 325 79 48 3 ° 133 215 424 739 9,773 $0.1481 2013 52,606 2,985 63,680 o 119,271 66,665 4,301 15.5 1.222 5,257 135 1,291 483 482 344 81 334 81 49 ° 0 133 221 364 739 9,995 $0.1499 2014 52,606 3,110 64,207 o 119,923 67,317 4,343 15.5 1.256 5,454 139 1,327 496 495 353 84 343 84 50 ° ° 133 227 300 739 10,224 $0.1519 2015 52,606 3,236 64,736 ° 120,578 67,972 4,385 15.5 1.290 5,658 143 1,363 510 509 363 86 353 86 52 0 o 133 233 233 607 10,329 $0.1520 52,606 3,362 65,269 ° 121,237 68,631 4,428 15.5 1.326 5,870 147 1,401 524 523 373 88 362 88 53 ° ° 133 240 178 470 10,450 $0.1523 121,901 69,295 133 246 133 328 10,588 $0.1528 vadlv esh CTW Ugg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC IBASE CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE SUB INT ON NEW UNITS DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS PLANTOPERATOR ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW TOTAL MAINT CREW CAPITAL COST 2150 KW MAINTENANCE TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS 3/18/94 1995 1996 1997 1998 2004 1995 1996 1997 1998 2004 1995 1996 1997 1998 2004 INFLAT FACTOR 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 3.5% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% SUPPORTING SCHEDULES 1992 91 91 91 91 1993 94 1994 96 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 172 168 163 158 153 147 141 134 127 178 174 169 164 158 152 146 139 185 180 175 169 164 158 151 191 186 181 175 169 163 172 346 522 698 678 655 632 607 580 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 147 147 147 147 147 147 132 269 411 558 558 558 558 558 558 99 101 104 107 110 113 116 ie 123 110 113 116 119 123 113 116 119 123 116 119 122 ° 0 0 oO 110 226 348 358 368 2,651 2,743 2,840 2,939 rir) 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 33 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 33 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 29 30 31 32 33 34 27 55 85 116 119 123 126 130 133 est vadiv vCW NQYXA COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC 3/18/94 BASE CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE SUB INT ON NEW UNITS DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS PLANTOPERATOR ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW TOTAL MAINT CREW CAPITAL COST 2150 KW MAINTENANCE TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS INFLAT FACTOR 2004 120 132 144 156 235 787 2005 112 124 137 149 229 751 2006 104 116 129 141 222 712 2007 95 108 120 133 215 671 2008 86 99 112 125 208 630 2009 76 89 102 115 200 582 2010 95 78 92 106 192 563 2011 53 67 81 95 183 479 2012 41 55 70 84 174 424 2013 28 43 57 72 164 364 2014 15 29 44 59 153 300 2015 2016 vadlv pst Tey vqryxg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC 3/21/94 ALLISON LAKE FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE FOUR ? INFLAT ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET YEAR FACTOR 1991 1992 1993 1994 AVG 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 MWH REQUIREMENT SOLOMON GULCH 39,634 40,880 52,364 44,925 44,451 49,462 50,549 51,553 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 EXISTING DIESELS 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 22,924 31,618 22,846 14,946 6,488 5,050 109 237 361 482 601 NEW DIESELS 11,300 21,539 32,712 37,897 19,885 23,536 26,993 30,357 33,705 ALLISON LAKE 26,715 26,715 26,715 26,715 26,715 LOSSES (197) (201) (202) (201) (168) (135) (102) (70) (39) (9) TOTAL REQ 60,399 62,487 72,912 73,702 67,375 80,883 84,494 87,836 91,605 95,385 99,180 102,992 106,605 110,121 113,618 TOTAL LESS SOLOMON 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 22,924 31,421 33,945 36,283 38,999 42,779 46,574 50,386 53,999 57,515 61,012 FUEL GALLONS 2,432 2,627 2,516 2,613 2,771 1,290 1,534 1,765 1,990 2,213 FUEL EFFICIENCY 13 13 14.5 15 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 FUEL PRICE 2.75% 0.75 0.771 0.792 0.814 0.836 0.859 0.883 0.907 0.932 0.957 SOLOMON GULCH RATE 2.75% 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.066 0.0645 0.066 0.067 0.067 0.068 0.069 0.070 ~ 0,071 0.071 0.072 0.073 DSL FUEL COST 1,376 1,252 1,176 1,412 1,304 1,824 2,024 1,992 2,126 2,316 1,108 1,354 1,600 1,854 2,119 LABORA & E 2.75% 84 65 87 79 79 83 85 88 90 93 95 98 100 103 | 106 LABOR PRODUCTION 2.75% 689 750 837 748 756 793 814 837 860 741 761 782 804 826 848 ADD 3 OPERATORS SCH ° Oo Oo oO ° ° ° ° Oo fo) ° °o oO ° oO ADD MAINTENANCE CREW SCH ° oO oO oO oO ° Oo o ° oO °o oO oO oO oO GDP GENERAL 2.75% 152 89 214 208 166 211 217 223 229 235 242 248 255 262 269 GDP UNITS 2.75% 109 71 285 184 162 » 235 241 248 254 56 57 59 60 62 64 VDP GENERAL 2.75% 75 162 269 141 162 205 211 216 222 228 235 241 248 255 262 VOP UNITS 2.75% 83 288 89 162 156 126 129 132 136 56 57 59 60 62 64 OTHER 2.75% 153 173 38 13 94 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 38 DSL INTEREST ' FIXED 220 212 205 192 207 179 168 157 147 137 128 119 1 105 98 DSL DEPREC i FIXED 235 237 244 244 240 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 SOLOMON POWER COST ° ° oO Oo 0 ° ° ° 0 ° 932 943 954 966 978 ALLISON INTEREST 3,138 3,110 3,080 3,048 3,015 ALLISON DEPRECIATION 1,046 1,046 1,046 1,046 1,046 ALLISON O & M 2.75% 284 292 300 308 317 NEW DIESEL BLDG 0 ° oO oO Oo ° ° oO 0 0 0 0 0 ° ° NEW DIESELS O&M SCH 0 oO 0 oO 0 oO 27 57 88 120 124 127 131 134 138 NEW DIESELS INTEREST SCH Oo oO oO oO oO ° 178 359 540 723 701 678 654 628 601 NEW DIESELS DEPREC SCH ° oO ° ° oO oO 137 279 426 426 426 426 426 426 578 TOTAL COSTS 3,176 3,299 3,444 3,383 3,326 3,929 4,506 4,863 5,395 5,409 9,612 9,861 10,110 10,366 10,784 COST PER KWH/SUPP. $0.1529 $0.1527 $0.1676 $0.1176 $0.1451 . $0.1328 $0.1340 $0.1383 $0.1264 _$0.2064 _$0.1957 _$0.1872 _$0.1802__—$0.1768 vadlv SSI TEV NQUXg ‘COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ALLISON LAKE FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE MWH REQUIREMENT SOLOMON GULCH EXISTING DIESELS NEW DIESELS ALLISON LAKE LOSSES TOTAL REQ TOTAL LESS SOLOMON FUEL GALLONS FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL PRICE SOLOMON GULCH RATE DSL FUEL COST LABORA & E LABOR PRODUCTION ADD 3 OPERATORS ADD MAINTENANCE CREW GDP GENERAL GDP UNITS VDP GENERAL VDP UNITS OTHER DSL INTEREST DSL DEPREC SOLOMON POWER COST ALLISON INTEREST ALLISON DEPRECIATION ALLISON O & M NEW DIESEL BLDG NEW DIESELS O&M NEW DIESELS INTEREST NEW DIESELS DEPREC TOTAL COSTS COST PER KWH/SUPP. 3/21/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2005 52,606 619 34,291 26,715 (4) 52,606 794 34,720 26,715 ° 52,606 913 35,214 26,715 oO 2008 52,606 1,033 35,712 26,715 oO 52,606 1,154 36,216 26,715 oO 52,606 1,276 36,727 26,715 oO 52,606 1,399 37,244 26,715 oO 2012 52,606 1,523 37,769 26,715 oO 52,606 1,649 38,301 26,715 oO 52,606 1,774 38,827 26,715 oO 52,606 1,900 39,357 26,715 oO 52,606 2,026 39,890 26,715 oO 2,153 40,245 26,715 Oo 114,227 61,621 2,252 15.5 0.984 0.074 2,216 109 872 fo) oO 277 66 269 66 39 92 244 990 2,979 1,046 325 ° 142 572 578 10,880 $0.1766 114,835 62,229 2,291 15.5 1.011 0.075 2,316 112 896 ° oO 284 67 276 67 40 85 244 1,002 2,941 1,046 334 0 146 540 578 10,976 $0.1764 115,448 62,842 2,331 15.5 1.039 0.076 2,421 115 920 ° ° 292 69 284 69 42 80 195 1,015 2,901 1,046 343 oO 150 507 578 11,027 $0.1755 116,066 63,460 2,371 15.5 1.067 0.077 2,530 118 946 ° ° 300 7 292 71 43 75 Oo 1,028 2,859 1,046 353 0 154 474 578 10,937 $0.1724 116,691 64,085 2,411 15.5 1.096 0.078 2,644 121 972 0 oO 308 73 300 73 44 70 ° 1,042 2,814 1,046 363 0 158 435 578 11,040 $0.1723 117,324 64,718 2,452 15.5 1.127 0.079 2,762 125 998 oO ° 317 75 308 75 45 26 o 1,056 2,767 1,046 373 Oo 162 395 578 11,108 $0.1716 117,964 65,358 2,493 15.5 1.158 0.080 2,886 128 1,026 °o o 326 77 "316 77 46 18 oO 1,070 2,716 1,046 383 ° 167 352 578 11,213 $0.1716 118,613 66,007 2,535 15.5 1.189 0.081 3,015 132 1,054 °o ° 335 79 325 79 48 3 ° 1,085 2,663 1,046 393 Oo 171 307 578 11,314 $0.1714 119,271 66,665 2,577 15.5 1.222 0.082 3,150 135 1,083 Oo oO 344 81 334 81 49 oO oO 1,100 2,606 1,046 404 0 176 259 578 11,427 $0.1714 119,922 67,316 2,619 15.5 1.256 0.084 3,289 139 1,113 ° ° 353 84 343 84 50 Oo °o 1,116 2,546 * 1,046 415 O 181 208 578 11,545 $0.1715 120,578 67,972 2,662 15.5 1.290 0.085 3,435 143 1,143 ° oO 363 86 353 86 52 ° ° 1,132 2,482 1,046 427 0 186 152 578 11,662 $0.1716 121,237 68,631 2,704 15.5 1.326 0.086 3,585 147 1,175 ° o 88 88 53 0 Oo 1,148 2,415 1,046 438 Oo 191 96 441 11,648 $0.1697 121,719 69,113 2,735 15.5 1.362 0.087 3,726 151 1,165 2,343 1,046 450 0 196 49 299 11,625 $0.1682 vadlv 9St CCV UNQIYXA COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ALLISON LAKE FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE SUB INT ON NEW UNITS DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS PLANTOPERATOR ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW TOTAL MAINT CREW CAPITAL COST 2150 KW MAINTENANCE TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS 3/21/94 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1997 1998 1999 INFLAT FACTOR 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 3.5% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% SUPPORTING SCHEDULES 1992 1993 91 94 91 91 91 1994 96 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 178 174 169 164 158 152 146 139 185 180 175 169 164 158 151 191 186 181 175 169 163 198 193 187 181 175 0 178 359 540 723 701 678 654 628 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 147 147 147 147 147 147 0 137 279 426 426 426 426 426 426 99 101 104 107 110 113 116 119 123 0 0 0 oO 0 0 0 0 0 ° lo ° 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,743 2,840 2,939 3,042 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 33 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 29 30 31 32 33 34 30 31 32 33 34 0 27 57 88 120 124 127 131 134 yey waryx” COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC 3/21/94 ALLISON LAKE FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLMH MEDIUM HIGH-MEDIUM FUEL CASE NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE SUB INT ON NEW UNITS DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS PLANTOPERATOR ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW TOTAL MAINT CREW CAPITAL COST 2150 KW MAINTENANCE TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS vadiv Sh Z INFLAT FACTOR 2004 132 144 156 169 601 2006 116 129 141 154 540 2007 108 120 133 146 507 2008 99 112 125 138 474 2009 89 102 115 129 435 2010 78 92 106 119 395 2011 67 81 95 109 352 2012 55 70 84 98 307 2013 43 57 72 87 259 2014 29 44 59 76 208 2015 2016 15 30 46 61 152 Zeovoansone Pv uqIuxg SUTTON TO GLENNALLEN 138 KV INTERTIE---POWER COST ANALYSIS--NON-INTEGRATED CAPACITY LEASE OR ECONOMY ENERGY VS INTEGRATED FIRM ENERGY JANUARY,21, 1994 REVISED 3/21/94 ASSUMPTIONS INFLATION ADJUSTED 102.75% ANN. PAY. 50 YEAR, ZERO INT. LOAN $35.0 MILLION $700,000 35 YEAR, 6.00% LOAN $17.1 MILLION $1,183,207 TOTAL COST OF LINE $52.1 MILLION $1,883,207 POWER COST CLNF 1998's (KWH)* $0.035 CAPACITY LEASE OR ECONOMY ENERGY--INCLUDES 1 MILL KWH FOR WHEELING TO MEA POWER COST--FIRM1998 $'s (KWH)** $0.056 INTEGRATED INTO RAILBELT SYSTEM --INCLUDES 1 MILL KWH FOR WHEELING TO MEA YEAR 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 CASE 1A-- NON-FIRM--MEDIUM HIGH LOAD-- (NOT INTEGRATED) INFL. RATE SUPPL. KWH REQ. 38,999,000 42,779,000 46,574,000 50,386,000 54,000,000 57,516,000 61,012,000 61,622,000 62,230,000 62,842,000 63,459,000 64,084,000 64,717,000 65,359,000 66,007,000 66,665,000 67,317,000 67,972,000 DEPRECIATION $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 $1,043,088 ANNUAL INTEREST $1,029,265 $1,020,029 $1,010,238 $999,860 $988,859 $977,198 $964,838 $951,736 $937,848 $923,126 $907,521 $890,980 $873,446 $854,661 $835,160 $814,277 $792,142 $768,678 SUBTOTAL DEBT SERVICE $2,072,353 $2,063,117 $2,053,326 $2,042,948 $2,031,947 $2,020,286 $2,007,926 $1,994,824 $1,980,936 $1,966,214 $1,950,609 $1,934,068 $1,916,534 $1,897,949 $1,878,248 $1,857,365 $1,835,230 $1,811,766 DEBT SERVICE COST KWH 0.0531 0.0482 0.0441 0.0405 0.0376 0.0351 0.0329 0.0324 0.0318 0.0313 0.0307 0.0302 0.0296 0.0290 0.0285 0.0279 0.0273 0.0267 LINE O&M EXPENSE $263,412 $270,656 $278,099 $285,747 $293,605 $301,679 $309,975 $318,499 $327,258 $336,258 $345,505 $355,006 $364,769 $374,800 $385,107 $395,697 $406,579 $417,760 STANDBY LABOR DIESEL $229,054 $235,353 $241,825 $248,475 $255,308 $262,329 $269,544 $276,956 $284,572 $292,398 $300,439 $308,701 $317,190 $325,913 $334,876 $344,085 $353,547 $363,270 DIESEL PLANT O&M $114,527 $117,676 $120,913 $124,238 $127,654 $131,165 $134,772 $138,478 | $142,286 $146,199 $150,219 $154,350 $158,595 $162,956 $167,438 $172,042 $176,774 $181,635 SUBTOTAL LINE OP. COST $2,679,346 $2,686,802 $2,694,163 $2,701,408 $2,708,514 $2,715,459 $2,722,216 $2,728,757 $2,735,052 $2,741,068 $2,746,772 $2,752,125 $2,757,088 $2,761,618 $2,765,668 $2,769,189 $2,772,129 $2,774,430 LINE OP, COST KWH 0.0687 0.0628 0.0578 0.0536 0.0502 0.0472 0.0446 0.0443 0.0440 0.0436 0.0433 0.0429 0.0426 0.0423 0.0419 0.0415 0.0412 0.0408 RESIDUAL INTEREST DIESEL $147,000 $137,000 $128,000 $119,000 $111,000 $105,000 $98,000 $92,000 $85,000 $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $26,000 $18,000 $3,000 RES, DEPRECIATION DIESEL $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $195,000 ‘SUB-TOTAL COST LESS P.C. $3,070,346 $3,067,802 $3,066,163 $3,064,408 $3,063,514 $3,064,459 $3,064,216 $3,064,757 $3,064,052 $3,016,068 $2,821,772 $2,822,125 $2,783,088 $2,779,618 $2,768,668 $2,769,189 $2,772,129 $2,774,430 COST, LESS POWER COST KWH 0.0787 0.0717 0.0658 0.0608 0.0567 0.0533 0.0502 0.0497 0.0492 0.0480 0.0445 0.0440 0.0430 0.0425 0.0419 0.0415 0.0412 0.0408 POWER COST $1,364,965 $1,538,440 $1,674,917 $1,812,007 $1,941,975 $2,068,419 $2,194,144 $2,216,081 $2,237,946 $2,259,955 $2,282,144 $2,304,621 $2,327,385 $2,350,473 $2,373,777 $2,397,440 $2,420,888 TOTAL COST OF POWER $4,435,311 $4,606,242 $4,741,080 $4,876,414 $5,531,657 $5,132,878 $5,258,360 $5,280,838 $5,301,999 $5,276,024 $5,103,916 $5,126,746 $5,110,473 $5,130,091 $5,142,445 $5,166,629 $5,193,017 COST OF POWER KWH 0.1137 0.1077 0.1018 0.0968 0.1024 0.0892 0.0862 0.0857 0.0852 0.0840 0.0804 0.0800 0.0790 0.0785 0.0779 0.0775 0.0771 CASE 2A-- FIRM--MEDIUM HIGH LOAD--( INTEGRATED) 1 COST OF SUPP. POWER 2.75% $2,183,944 $2,461,504 $2,679,868 $2,899,210 $3,107,160 $3,309,471 $3,510,630 $3,545,730 $3,580,714 $3,615,929 $3,651,431 $3,687,393 $3,723,816 $3,760,757 $3,798,043 $3,835,904 $3,873,420 $3,911,109 STANDBY LABOR DIESEL 2.75% $229,054 $235,353 $241,825 $248,475 «$255,308 $262,329 $269,544 $276,956 $284,572 «$292,398 $300,439 += $308,701 «$317,190 $325,913 $334,876 $344,085 $353,547 $363,270 DIESEL PLANT O&M 2.75% $114,527 $117,676 ~=—«-$120,913 «$124,238 «$127,654 «$131,165 $134,772 «$138,478 «$142,286 $146,199 $150,219 «$184,350 $158,595 $162,956 $167,438 $172,042 «$176,774 «$181,635 RESIDUAL INTEREST DIESEL 0% $147,000 $137,000 $128,000 $119,000 = $111,000 $105,000 $98,000 $92,000 $85,000 $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $26,000 $18,000 $3,000 RES, DEPRECIATION DIESEL 0% $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $244,000 $195,000 TOTAL POWER COST $2,918,525 $3,195,533 $3,414,606 $3,634,924 $3,845,123 $4,051,965 $4,256,946 $4,297,164 $4,336,573 $4,329,526 $4,177,089 94,220,445 $4,225,602 $4,267,626 $4,303,356 $4,352,031 $4,403,741 $4,456,013 TOTAL COST KWH 0.0748 0.0747 0.0733 0.0721 0.0712 0.0704 0.0698 0.0697 0.0697 0.0689 0.0658 0.0659 0.0653 0.0653 0.0652 0.0653 0.0654 0.0656 *** ANNUAL SAVINGS $1,516,786 $1,410,709 $1,326,474 $1,241,491 $1,686,534 $1,080,913 $1,001,414 $983,675 $965,426 $946,498 $926,827 $906,301 $884,872 $862,465 $839,089 $814,598 $789,276 $762,860 TOTAL SAVINGS FOR STUDY PERIOD $20,397,836 BASED ON ML&P MID CASE (ML&P LETTER FEB. 94) + 1 MILL FOR WHEELING (MEA LETTER)--** BASED ON_ INFORMATION PROVIDED BY CHUGACH (DECEMBER 1993) *_**SAVINGS COMPARING CASE 1_TO CASE 2. 2 9 m > = a © 68,631,000 $1,043,088 $743,806 $1,786,894 0.0260 $429,248 $373,259 $186,630 $2,776,031 0.0404 $2,776,031 0.0404 $2,468,142 $5,244,174 0.0764 $3,949,028 $373,259 $186,630 $4,508,917 0.0657 $735,257 69,295,000 $1,043,088 727442 $1,770,530 0.0256 $441,053 $383,524 $191,762 $2,786,869 0.0402 $2,786,869 0.0402 $2,492,021 $5,278,890 0.0762 $3,9°° 234 s 24 $i. 62 $4,562,520 0.0658) $716,370 vadlv 6S1 Tov wqryxg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC 3/18/94 BASE CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE FOUR INFLAT ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET YEAR FACTOR 1991 1992 1993 1994 AVG 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 MWH REQUIREMENT . SOLOMON GULCH } 39,634 40,880 52,364 44,925 44,451 49,462 50,549 51,553 51,824 52,097 52,376 52,606 52,606 52,606 EXISTING DIESELS 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 22,924 31,618 22,846 14,946 5,149 1,113 1,335 1,899 1,189 1,208 NEW DIESELS 11,300 21,539 31,964 36,635 37,060 37,206 38,651 39,270 SGL LOSSES . (197) (201) (202) (204) (205) (207) (207) (201) (196) TOTAL REQ : 60,399 62,487 72,912 73,702 67,375 80,883 84,494 87,836 88,733 89,640 90,564 91,504 92,245 92,888 TOTAL LESS SOLOMON 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 22,924 31,421 33,945 36,283 36,909 37,543 38,188 38,898 39,639 40,282 FUEL GALLONS 2,417 2,611 2,502 2,461 2,422 2,464 2,510 2,557 2,599 FUEL EFFICIENCY 13 13 14.5 15 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 FUEL PRICE 2.75% 0.75 0.771 0.792 0.814 0.836 0.859 0.883 0.907 0.932 DSL FUEL COST | 1376 1252 1,176 1,412 1,304 1,813 2,012 1,981 2,002 2,025 2,116 2,215 2,319 2,422 LABORA&E 2.75% 84 65 87 73 79 83 85 88 90 93 95 98 100 103 LABOR PRODUCTION 2.75% 689 750 837 748 756 793 814 837 860 883 908 933 958 985 ADD 3 OPERATORS SCH oO Oo oO oO 0 0 ° oO oO 330 339 348 358 368 ADD MAINTENANCE CREW SCH ° ° o 0 0 o °O oO oO 110 226 232 239 245 GDP GENERAL 2.75% 152 89 214 208 166 211 217 223 229 235 242 248 255 262 GDP UNITS 2.75% 109 71 285 184 162 235 241 248 254 56 57 59 60 62 VOP GENERAL 2.75% 75 162 269 141 162 205 211 216 222 228 235 241 248 255 VDP UNITS 2.75% 83 288 89 162 156 126 129 132 136 56 57 59 60 62 OTHER 2.75% 153 173 38 13 94 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 DSL INTEREST FIXED 220 212 205 192 207 179 168 157 147 137 128 119 Ww 105 DSL DEPREC FIXED 235 237 244 244 240 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 NEW DIESEL BLDG 0 Oo °o oO Oo oO ° 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 NEW DIESELS O&M SCH 0 0 Oo oO 0 27 55 85 116 119 123 126 130 133 NEW DIESELS INTEREST SCH 0 ° Oo Oo 0 172 346 §22 698 678 655 632 607 580 NEW DIESELS DEPREC SCH oO oO oO oO oO 132 269 411 558 558 558 558 558 558 TOTAL COSTS 3176 3299 3,444 3,383 3,326 4,248 4,822 5,308 5,722 5,919 6,150 6,281 6,417 6,554 COST PER KWH/SUPP $0.1529 $0.1527 $0.1676 $0.1176 $0.1451 $0.1352 $0.1420 $0.1463 $0.1550 $0.1577 $0.1611 $0.1615 $0.1619 $0.1627 vadlv oot Z'SW Nga COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC BASE CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE MWH REQUIREMENT SOLOMON GULCH EXISTING DIESELS NEW DIESELS SGL LOSSES TOTAL REQ TOTAL LESS SOLOMON FUEL GALLONS FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL PRICE DSL FUEL COST LABORA & E LABOR PRODUCTION ADD 3 OPERATORS ADD MAINTENANCE CREW GDP GENERAL GDP UNITS VDP GENERAL VDP UNITS OTHER DSL INTEREST DSL DEPREC NEW DIESEL BLDG NEW DIESELS O&M NEW DIESELS INTEREST NEW DIESELS DEPREC TOTAL COSTS COST PER KWH/SUPP. 3/18/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2004 52,606 1,226 39,865 (191) 93,506 40,900 2,639 15.5 0.957 2,526 106 1,012 378 252 269 64 262 64 38 98 244 133 173 787 739 7,145 $0.1747 52,606 1,244 40,452 (187) 94,115 41,509 2,678 15.5 0.984 2,634 109 1,039 388 259 277 66 269 66 39 92 244 133 178 751 739 7,283 $0.1755 2006 52,606 1,262 41,038 (182) 94,724 42,118 2,717 15.5 1.011 2,747 112 1,068 399 266 284 67 276 67 40 85 244 133 183 712 739 7,423 $0.1762 2007 52,606 1,280 41,627 (178) 95,335 42,729 2,757 15.5 1.039 2,863 115 1,097 410 273 292 69 284 69 42 80 195 133 188 671 739 7,521 $0.1760 2008 52,606 1,298 42,222 (173) 95,953 43,347 2,797 15.5 1.067 2,984 118 1,128 421 281 300 71 292 7 43 75 oO 133 193 630 739 7,479 $0.1725 2009 52,606 1,316 42,824 (168) 96,578 43,972 2,837 15.5 1.096 3,111 121 1,159 433 289 308 73 300 73 44 70 °o 133 198 582 739 7,632 $0.1736 2010 52,606 1,335 43,434 (164) 97,211 44,605 2,878 15.5 1.127 3,242 125 1,190 445 296 317 75 308 75 45 26 oO 133 204 563 739 7,783 $0.1745 2011 52,606 1,354 44,051 (159) 97,852 45,246 2,919 15.5 1.158 3,379 128 1,223 457 305 326 77 316 77 46 18 oO 133 209 479 739 7,913 $0.1749 79 79 48 3 °o 133 215 424 739 8,073 $0.1759 81 49 0 o 133 221 364 739 8,248 $0.1772 84 84 50 Oo o 133 227 300 739 8,430 $0.1786 2015 52,606 1,430 46,574 (139) 100,471 47,865 3,088 15.5 1.290 3,985 143 1,363 510 340 363 86 353 86 52 0 0 133 233 233 607 8,485 $0.1773 52,606 1,450 47,213 (134) 101,135 48,529 3,131 15.5 1.326 4,181 147 1,401 \ 524 349 373 88 362 88 53 oO 0 133 133 240 246 178 133 470 328 8,557 8,642 $0.1763 $0.1757 eSv NqIyX” COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC BASE CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE SUB INT ON NEW UNITS DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS PLANTOPERATOR ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW TOTAL MAINT CREW CAPITAL COST 2150 KW MAINTENANCE TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS vadlv 1995 1996 1997 1998 2004 1995 1996 1997 1998 2004 1995 1996 1997 1998 2004 3/18/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 3.5% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% SUPPORTING SCHEDULES 1992 1993 91 94 91 91 1994 96 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 172 168 163 158 153 147 141 134 127 178 174 169 164 158 152 146 139 185 180 175 169 164 158 151 191 186 181 175 169 163 172 346 522 698 678 655 632 607 580 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 147 147 147 147 147 147 132 269 4i1 558 558 558 558 558 558 99 101 104 107 110 113 116 119 123 110 113 116 119 123 113 116 119 123 ) ° 0 ° ° ° 110 226 232 239 245 2,651 2,743 2,840 2,939 27 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 33 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 33 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 29 30 31 32 33 34 27 55 85 116 119 123 126 130 133 pov UqX, COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC BASE CASE-ALL DIESEL FILENAME:\SGL\CHDSLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE SUB INT ON NEW UNITS DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS PLANTOPERATOR ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW TOTAL MAINT CREW CAPITAL COST 2150 KW MAINTENANCE TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS vadlv Z9oL 3/18/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2013 28 43 57 72 164 364 2014 15 29 44 59 153 300 132 137 142 147 181 739 165 165 165 oO 330 2015 2016 vadiv eob Tov wqryxg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC 3/21/94 ALLISON LAKE FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE MWH REQUIREMENT SOLOMON GULCH EXISTING DIESELS NEW DIESELS ALLISON LAKE LOSSES TOTAL REQ TOTAL LESS SOLOMON FUEL GALLONS FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL PRICE SOLOMON GULCH RATE DSL FUEL COST LABORA&E LABOR PRODUCTION ADD 3 OPERATORS ADD MAINTENANCE CREW GDP GENERAL GDP UNITS VDP GENERAL VDP UNITS OTHER DSL INTEREST DSL DEPREC SOLOMON POWER COST ALLISON INTEREST ALLISON DEPRECIATION ALLISON O & M NEW DIESEL BLDG NEW DIESELS O&M NEW DIESELS INTEREST NEW DIESELS DEPREC TOTAL COSTS COST PER KWH/SUPP INFLAT FACTOR 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% SCH SCH 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% FIXED FIXED 2.75% SCH SCH SCH FOUR ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 AVG 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 39,634 40,880 52,364 44,925 44,451 49,462 50,549 51,553 51,824 52,097 52,376 52,606 52,606 52,606 52,606 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 22,924 31,618 22,846 14,946 5,149 1,113 Oo 0 ° oO oO 11,300 21,539 31,964 36,635 11,797 12,490 13,213 13,840 14,442 ' 26,715 26,715 26,715 26,715 26,715 (197) (201) (202) (204) (205) (324) (308) (289) (273) (257) 60,399 62,487 72,912 73,702 67,375 80,883 84,494 87,836 88,733 89,640 90,564 91,503 92,245 92,888 93,506 20,765 21,607 20,548 28,777 22,924 31,421 33,945 36,283 36,909 37,543 38,188 38,897 39,639 40,282 40,900 2,432 2,627 2,516 2,474 2,435 761 806 852 893 932 13 13 14.5 15 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 0.75 0.771 0.792 0.814 0.836 0.859 0.883 0.907 0.932 0.957 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.066 0.0645 0.066 0.067 0.067 0.068 0.069 0.070 0.071 0.071 0.072 0.073 1,376 1,252 1,176 1,412 1,304 1,824 2,024 1,992 2,013 2,036 654 71 773 832 892 84 65 87 79 79 83 85 88 90 93 95 98 100 103 | 106 689 750 837 748 756 793 814 837 860 741 761 782 804 826 848 ° °o °o °o o ° ° ° ° 0 °o ° ° o ° °o ° Oo oO oO ° ° 0 oO 0 oO oO o oO 0 152 89 214 208 166 211 217 223 229 235 242 248 255 262 269 109 71 285 184 162 235 241 248 254 56 57 59 60 62 64 75 162 269 141 162 205 211 216 222 228 235 241 248 255 262 83 288 89 162 156 126 129 132 136 56 57 59 60 62 64 153 173 38 13 94 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 38 220 212 205 192 207 179 168 157 147 137 128 119 111 105 98 235 237 244 244 240 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 oO oO oO 0 oO ° ° Oo oO ° 932 943 954 966 978 3,138 3,110 3,080 3,048 3,015 1,046 1,046 1,046 1,046 1,046 284 292 300 308 317 0 0 0 0 0 ° 0 0 0 oO oO ° 0 ° o oO 0 0 0 ° 0 27 57 88 120 124 127 131 134 138 0 oO 0 ° ° ° 178 359 540 723 701 678 654 628 601 oO oO oO oO oO oO 137 279 426 426 426 426 426 426 578 3,176 3,299 3,444 3,383 3,326 3,929 4,506 4,863 5,282 5,128 9,158 9,218 9,283 9,344 9,558 $0.1451 $0.1250 $0.1328 $0.1340 $0.1431 $0.1366 $0.2398 $0.2370 $0.2342 $0.2320 $0.2337 vaaiv vol TOW NqUXA COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ALLISON LAKE FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE MWH REQUIREMENT SOLOMON GULCH EXISTING DIESELS NEW DIESELS ALLISON LAKE LOSSES TOTAL REQ TOTAL LESS SOLOMON FUEL GALLONS FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL PRICE SOLOMON GULCH RATE DSL FUEL COST LABORA & E LABOR PRODUCTION ADD 3 OPERATORS ADD MAINTENANCE CREW GDP GENERAL GDP UNITS VDP GENERAL VOP UNITS OTHER DSL INTEREST DSL DEPREC SOLOMON POWER COST ALLISON INTEREST ALLISON DEPRECIATION ALLISONO &M NEW DIESEL BLDG NEW DIESELS O&M NEW DIESELS INTEREST NEW DIESELS DEPREC TOTAL COSTS COST PER KWH/SUPP 3/21/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2005 52,606 Oo 15,036 26,715 (242) 94,115 41,509 970 15.5 0.984 0.074 ° oO 277 66 269 66 39 92 244 990 2,979 1,046 325 ° 142 572 578 9,619 $0.2317 0 ° 284 67 276 67 40 85 244 1,002 2,941 1,046 334 0 146 540 578 9,679 $0.2298 Oo oO 292 69 284 69 42 80 195 1,015 2,901 1,046 343 ° 150 507 578 9,694 $0.2269 2008 52,606 Oo 16,828 26,715 (196) 95,953 43,347 1,086 15.5 1.067 0.077 1,159 118 946 ° oO 300 71 292 71 43 75 oO 1,028 2,859 1,046 353 Oo 154 474 578 9,566 $0.2207 2009 52,606 oO 17,437 26,715 (180) 96,578 43,972 1,125 15.5 1,096 0.078 1,234 121 972 fo) oO 308 73 300 73 44 70 °O 1,042 2,814 1,046 363 Oo 158 435 578 9,630 $0.2190 1,396 128 1,026 ° oO °o o 317 326 75 77 308 316 75 77 45 46 26 18 ° Oo 1,056 1,070 2,767 2,716 1,046 1,046 373 383 ° oO 162 167 395 352 578 578 9,658 9,722 $0.2165 $0.2149 2012 52,606 37 19,297 26,715 (154) 98,501 45,895 1,247 15.5 1.189 0.081 1,484 132 1,054 Oo fe) 335 79 325 79 48 3 ° 1,085 2,663 1,046 393 oO 171 307 578 9,782 $0.2131 2013 52,606 56 19,930 26,715 (149) 99,158 46,552 1,289 15.5 1,222 0.082 1,576 135 1,083 °O 0 81 81 49 fo) oO 1,100 2,606 1,046 404 Oo 176 259 578 9,853 $0.2117 0 0 84 84 50 oO oO 1,116 2,546 1,046 415 0 181 208 578 9,928 $0.2103 2015 52,606 95 21,195 26,715 (139) 100,472 47,866 1,374 15.5 1.290 0.085 1,772 143 1,143 o oO 363 86 353 86 52 oO ° 1,132 2,482 1,046 427 fe) 186 152 578 10,000 $0.2089 2016 52,606 114 21,833 26,715 (134) 101,134 48,528 1,416 15.5 1.326 0.086 1,877 147 1,175 Oo oO 373 88 362 88 53 O o 1,148 2,415 1,046 438 ° 191 96 441 9,940 $0.2048 134 22,476 26,715 (129) 101,802 49,196 1,459 15.5 1.362 0.087 1,987 151 1,207 1,165 2,343 1,046 450 O 196 49 299 9,886 $0.2009 COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC 3/21/94 ALLISON LAKE SUPPORTING SCHEDULES FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE INFLAT FACTOR 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE 1996 178 174 169 164 158 152 146 139 INTEREST EXPENSE 1997 185 180 175 169 164 158 151 INTEREST EXPENSE 1998 191 186 181 175 169 163 INTEREST EXPENSE 1999 198 193 187 181 175 SUB INT ON NEW UNITS 0 178 359 540 723 701 678 654 628 DEPRECIATION 1996 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 DEPRECIATION 1997 142 142 142 142 142 142 142 DEPRECIATION 1998 147 147 147 147 147 147 DEPRECIATION 1999 SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS 0 137 279 426 426 426 426 426 426 PLANTOPERATOR 2.75% 91 94 96 99 101 104 107 110 113 116 119 123 ADD 1 MAINT CREW 2.75% 91 ° 0 o oO ADD 1 MAINT CREW 2.75% 91 0 0 lo 0 ADD 1 MAINT CREW 2.75% 91 ° ° 0 TOTAL MAINT CREW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CAPITAL COST 2150 KW 3.5% 2,743 2,840 2,939 3,042 2 S MAINTENANCE > 1996 2.75% 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 33 1997 2.75% 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 1998 2.75% 29 30 31 32 33 34 1999 2.75% 30 31 32 33 34 TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS oO 27 57 88 120 124 127 131 134 TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS COV NqUX, vadlv 99L pov uqyxg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ALLISON LAKE FILENAME:\SGL\CHALLML MEDIUM LOW-MEDIUM FUEL CASE NEW DIESEL COSTS INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE INTEREST EXPENSE SUB INT ON NEW UNITS DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION DEPRECIATION SUB DEPREC ON NEW UNITS PLANTOPERATOR ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW ADD 1 MAINT CREW TOTAL MAINT CREW CAPITAL COST 2150 KW MAINTENANCE TOTAL MAINT NEW UNITS TOTAL MAINT OLD UNITS 3/21/94 INFLAT FACTOR 2004 132 144 156 169 2005 124 137 149 162 2006 116 129 141 154 2007 108 120 133 146 2009 2010 89 78 92 106 119 2011 67 81 95 2012 55 70 84 98 2013 43 57 72 87 2014 29 44 59 76 2015 2016 15 30 46 61 601 572 540 507 395 307 259 208 152 Zeeveusune LV NatyXA SUTTON TO GLENNALLEN 138 KV INTERTIE---POWER COST ANALYSIS--NON-INTEGRATED CAPACITY LEASE OR ECONOMY VS INTEGRATED FIRM JANUARY,21, 1994 ASSUMPTIONS INFLATION ADJUSTED 50 YEAR, ZERO INT. LOAN 35 YEAR, 6.00% LOAN TOTAL COST OF LINE POWER COST CUNF 1998% (KWH)* POWER COST FIRM 1998$ (KWH)** YEAR REVISED 3/21/94 102.75% ANN. PAY. $35.0 MILLION $700,000 ‘ $17.1 MILLION $1,183,207 $52.1 MILLION $1,883,207 0.035 CAPACITY LEASE OR ECONOMY ENERGY--INCLUDES 1 MILL KWH FOR WHEELING TO MEA $0.056 INTEGRATED INTO RAILBELT SYSTEM --INCLUDES 1 MILL KWH FOR WHEELING TO MEA 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005, 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CASE 1A--CAPACITY LEASE OR NON-FIRM--MEDIUM LOW LOAD-- (NOT INTEGRATED) INFL, RATE SUPPLEMENTAL KWH REQ, DEPRECIATION ANNUAL INTEREST SUBTOTAL DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICE COST KWH LINE O&M EXPENSE STANDBY LABOR DIESEL DIESEL PLANT O&M SUBTOTAL LINE OP, COST LINE OP, COST KWH RESIDUAL INTEREST DIESEL RES, DEPRECIATION DIESEL SUB-TOTAL COST LESS P.C. COST, LESS POWER COST KWH POWER COST TOTAL COST OF POWER COST OF POWER KWH 42,729,000 $1,043,088 $923,126 $1,966,214 0.0460 $336,258 $292,398 $146,199 $2,741,068 0.0642 $80,000 $195,000 $3,016,068 0.0706 $1,536,642 $4,552,710 0.1065 37,543,000 $1,043,088 $1,020,029 $2,063,117 0.0550 $270,656 $235,353 $117,676 $2,686,802 0.0716 $137,000 $244,000 $3,067,802 0.0817 $1,350,140 $4,417,942 0.1177 38,188,000 $1,043,088 $1,010,238 $2,053,326 0.0538 $278,099 $241,825 $120,913 $2,694,163 0.0705 $128,000 $244,000 $3,066,163 0.0803 $1,373,336 $4,439,499 0.1163 38,898,000 $1,043,088 $999,860 $2,042,948 0.0525 $285,747 $248,475 $124,238 $2,701,408 0.0694 $119,000 $244,000 $3,064,408 0.0788 $1,398,869 $4,463,277 0.1147 39,639,000 $1,043,088 $988,859 $2,031,947 0.0513 $293,605 $255,308 $127,654 $2,708,514 0.0683 $111,000 $244,000 $3,063,514 0.0773 $1,425,518 $4,808,738 0.1213 40,282,000 $1,043,088 $977,198 $2,020,286 0.0502 $301,679 $262,329 $131,165 $2,715,459 0.0674 $105,000 $244,000 $3,064,459 0.0761 $1,448,641 $4,513,100 0.1120 40,900,000 $1,043,088 $964,838 $2,007,926 0.0491 $309,975 $269,544 $134,772 $2,722,216 0.0666 $98,000 $244,000 $3,064,216 0.0749 $1,470,866 $4,535,082 0.1109 41,509,000 $1,043,088 $951,736 $1,994,824 0.0481 $318,499 $276,956 $138,478 $2,728,757 0.0657 $92,000 $244,000 $3,064,757 0.0738 $1,492,767 $4,557,525 0.1098 42,118,000 $1,043,088 $937,848 $1,980,936 0.0470 $327,258 $284,572 $142,286 $2,735,052 0.0649 $85,000 $244,000 $3,064,052 0.0727 $1,514,669 $4,578,721 0.1087 43,347,000 $1,043,088 $907,521 $1,950,609 0.0450 $345,505 $300,439 $150,219 $2,746,772 0.0634 $75,000 43,972,000 $1,043,088 $890,980 $1,934,068 0.0440 $355,006 $308,701 $154,350 $2,752,125 0.0626 $70,000 44,605,000 $1,043,088 $873,446 $1,916,534 0.0430 $364,769 $317,190 $158,595 $2,757,088 0.0618 $26,000 45,246,000 $1,043,088 $854,861 $1,897,949 0.0419 $374,800 $325,913 $162,956 $2,761,618 0.0610 $18,000 45,895,000 $1,043,088 $835,160 $1,878,248 0.0409 $385,107 $334,876 $167,438 $2,765,668 0.0603 $3,000 46,553,000 $1,043,088 $814,277 $1,857,365 0.0399 $395,697 $344,085 $172,042 $2,769,189 0.0595 47,207,000 $1,043,088 $792,142 $1,835,230 0.0389 $406,579 $353,547 $176,774 $2,772,129 0.0587 47,865,000 $1,043,088 $768,678 $1,811,766 0.0379 $417,760 $363,270 $181,635 $2,774,430 0.0580 48,529,000 $1,043,088 $743,806 $1,786,894 0.0368 $429,248 $373,259 $186,630 $2,776,031 0.0572 49,197,000 $1,043,088 727442 $1,770,530 0.0360) $441,053 $383,524 $191,762 $2,786,869 0.0566) 36,909,000 $1,043,088 $1,029,265 $2,072,353 0.0561 $263,412 $229,054 $114,527 $2,679,346 0.0726 $147,000 $244,000 $3,070,346 0.0832 $1,291,815 $4,362,161 0.1182 $2,774,430 0.0580 $1,721,345 $4,495,775 0.0939 $2,821,772 0.0651 $1,558,866 $4,380,638 0.1011 $2,822,125 0.0642 $1,581,343 $4,403,469 0.1001 $2,783,088 0.0624 $1,604,107 $4,387,195 0.0984 $2,779,618 0.0614 $1,627,159 $4,406,778 0.0974 $2,768,668 0.0603 $1,650,499 $4,419,167 0.0963 $2,769,189 0.0595 $1,674,162 $4,443,352 0.0954 $2,772,129 0.0587 $1,697,682 $4,469,811 0.0947 $2,776,031 0.0572 $1,745,224 $4,521,256 0.0932 $2,786,869 0.0566 $1,769,247 $4,556,116 0.0926) CASE 2A-- FIRM--MEDIUM LOW LOAD--( INTEGRATED) COST OF SUPP. POWER STANDBY LABOR DIESEL DIESEL PLANT O&M RESIDUAL INTEREST DIESEL RES, DEPRECIATION DIESEL TOTAL POWER COST TOTAL COST KWH *** ANNUAL SAVINGS TOTAL SAVINGS FOR STUDY PERIOD *BASED ON ML&P MID CASE + 1 MILL FOR WHEELING (ML&P) LETTER FEBRARY 1994--** BASED ON. INFORMATION PROVIDED BY CHUGACH (DECEMBER 1993) wadlv 291 $2,458,627 $292,398 $146,199 $80,000 $195,000 $3,172,224 $2,494,186 $300,439 $150,219 $75,000 $2,530,149 $308,701 $154,350 $70,000 $2,566,572 $317,190 $158,595 $26,000 $2,640,798 $334,876 $167,438 $3,000 $2,716,291 $353,547 $176,774 $2,754,152 $363,270 $181,635 $2,792,359 $373,259 $186,630 $2,830,795 $383,524 $191,762 $2,197,338 $241,825 $120,913 $128,000 $244,000 $2,932,075 $2,238,191 $248,475 $124,238 $119,000 $244,000 $2,973,904 $2,280,828 $255,308 $127,654 $111,000 $244,000 $3,018,791 $2,317,826 $262,329 $131,165 $105,000 $244,000 $3,060,320 $2,353,386 $269,544 $134,772 $98,000 $244,000 $3,099,701 $2,388,428 $276,956 $138,478 $92,000 $244,000 $3,139,862 $2,423,470 $284,572 $142,286 $85,000 $244,000 $3,179,328 $2,603,455 $325,913 $162,956 $18,000 $2,678,660 $344,085 $172,042 $2,160,224 $235,353 $117,676 $137,000 $244,000 $2,894,254 $2,066,904 $229,054 $114,527 $147,000 $244,000 $2,801,485 $3,299,056 $3,019,845 $3,063,200 $3,068,357 $3,110,324 $3,146,112 $3,194,787 $3,246,611 $3,352,248 $3,406,082 0.0759 0.0771 0.0768 0.0765 0.0762 0.0760 0.0758 0.0756 0.0755 0.0742 0.0697 0.0697 0.0688 0.0687 0.0686 0.0686 0.0688 0.0689 0.0691 0.0692 $1,560,676 $1,523,689 $1,507,423 $1,489,373 $1,789,948 $1,452,780 $1,435,381 $1,417,663 $1,399,393 $1,380,487 $1,360,794 $1,340,268 $1,318,838 $1,296,453 $1,273,055 $1,248,565 $1,223,200 $1,196,719 $1,169,008 $1,150,034 $27,533,746 ***SAVINGS COMPARING CASE 1 TO CASE 2. COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC DIESEL EXPANSION CASE ASSUMPTIONS General rate of inflation 2.75%. Add three operators in 1999. Add three-man maintenance crew. One each 1999, 2000, and 2001 for meduim-high case. (add two for medium-low) New diesel cost $1,112 in 1992 dollars, interest 6.5%, 20 year life, no salvage for depreciation. New diesel O&M 1% of capital cost. Load forecast assumes Beck mwh. Fuel efficiency: 1995-96 13 1997 14.5 1998 15 1999-2017 15.5 Glennallen and Valdez maintenance on units set at $50,000/year each plant. Indexed to inflation. Assume diesel units are added in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, and 2004. AIDEA 168 Exhibit A8 COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ALLISON LAKE ASSUMPTIONS iL. Use Beck load forecast assumptions as to resource output. 2 General rate of inflation 2.75%. 35 Inflate Solomon Gulch power cost at rate of inflation for O&M component only. 4. Assume reduction of 1.5 operators in 1999. 5; Assume diesel units added in 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999. 6. Assume Beck cost of power analysis as to project cost. as Assume 50-year life for depreciation. 8. Assume 6%, 35-year loan (see attached amortization schedule). 9. Assume maintenance on new diesels at 1% of cost. 10. New diesel cost $1,112kw in 1992 dollars, interest 6.5%, 20-year life, no salvage for depreciation. os 11. | Glennallen and Valdez maintenance on units set at $50,000/year each plant. Indexed to inflation. AIDEA 169 Exhibit A9 COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC INTERTIE ASSUMPTIONS Project Cost $52.1 million per Beck cost of power analysis. Project Finance State loan 50-year, 0%, $35 million REA loan 35-year, 6%, $17.1 million Cost of Power Nonfirm 3.5¢ in 1998 Firm 5.6¢ in 1998 General rate of inflation 2.75% Assume two standby diesel operators Assume diesel O&M $100,000/year in 1995 Assume 50-year life, no salvage for depreciation Assume intertie O&M per Beck study AIDEA 170 Exhibit A10 COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE SUTTON/GLENNALLEN LINE PRINCIPAL INTEREST RATE TERM PAYMENT YEAR PAYMENT 1 1,183,207 2 1,183,207 3 1,183,207 4 1,183,207 5 1,183,207 6 1,183,207 - 7 1,183,207 8 1,183,207 9 1,183,207 10 1,183,207 ret 1,183,207 7) 1,183,207 13 1,183,207 14 1,183,207 15 1,183,207 16 1,183,207 17 1,183,207 18 1,183,207 19 1,183,207 20 1,183,207 21 1,183,207 22 1,183,207 23 1,183,207 24 1,183,207 25 1,183,207 26 1,183,207 27 1,183,207 28 1,183,207 29 1,183,207 30 1,183,207 31 1,183,207 32 1,183,207 33 1,183,207 34 1,183,207 35 1,183,207 SUPP 17,154,423 6.0% 35 (1,183,206.75) INTEREST 1,029,265 1,020,029 1,010,238 999,860 988,859 977,198 964,838 951,736 937,848 923,126 907,521 890,980 873,446 854,861 835,160 814,277 792,142 768,678 743,806 717,442 689,496 659,873 628,473 595,189 559,908 522,510 482,868 440,848 396,307 349,093 299,046 245,996 189,764 130,157 66,974 35,000,000 50 700,000 PRINCIPAL 153,941 163,178 172,969 183,347 194,347 206,008 218,369 231,471 245,359 260,081 275,686 292,227 309,760 328,346 348,047 368,929 391,065 414,529 439,401 465,765 493,711 523,333 554,733 588,018 623,299 660,696 700,338 742,359 786,900 834,114 884,161 937,211 993,443 1,053,050 1,116,233 DEPRECIATION 17,154,423 35 490,126 BALANCE 17,154,423 17,000,482 16,837,304 16,664,335 16,480,989 16,286,641 16,080,633 15,862,264 15,630,793 15,385,434 15,125,353 14,849,668 14,557,441 14,247,681 13,919,335 13,571,288 13,202,359 12,811,294 12,396,764 11,957,364 11,491,599 10,997,888 10,474,554 9,919,821 9,331,803 8,708,505 8,047,808 7,347,470 6,605,111 5,818,211 4,984,097 4,099,936 3,162,726 2,169,283 1,116,233 0 52,154,423 50 1,043,088 AIDEA 171 Exhibit All COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE ALLISON LAKE PRINCIPAL 52,296,000 INTEREST RATE 6.0% TERM 35 PAYMENT (3,607,056.93) DEPRECIATION 1,045,920 50 YEARS INTEREST YEAR PAYMENT PRINCIPAL BALANCE 52,296,000 1 3,607,057 3,137,760 469,297 51,826,703 2 3,607,057 3,109,602 497,455 51,329,248 3 3,607,057 3,079,755 527,302 50,801,946 4 3,607,057 3,048,117 558,940 50,243,006 5 3,607,057 3,014,580 592,477 49,650,530 6 3,607,057 2,979,032 628,025 49,022,504 7 3,607,057 2,941,350 665,707 48,356,798 8 3,607,057 2,901,408 705,649 47,651,149 9 3,607,057 2,859,069 747,988 46,903,161 10 3,607,057 2,814,190 792,867 46,110,293 Ml 3,607,057 2,766,618 840,439 45,269,854 12 3,607,057 2,716,191 890,866 44,378,988 13 3,607,057 2,662,739 944,318 43,434,671 14 3,607,057 2,606,080 1,000,977 42,433,694 15 3,607,057 2,546,022 1,061,035 41,372,659 16 3,607,057 2,482,360 1,124,697 40,247,961 17 3,607,057 2,414,878 1,192,179 39,055,782 18 3,607,057 2,343,347 1,263,710 37,792,072 19 3,607,057 2,267,524 1,339,533 36,452,540 20 3,607,057 2,187,152 1,419,905 35,032,635 21 3,607,057 2,101,958 1,505,099 33,527,536 22 3,607,057 2,011,652 1,595,405 31,932,131 23 3,607,057 1,915,928 1,691,129 30,241,002 24 3,607,057 1,814,460 1,792,597 28,448,406 25 3,607,057 1,706,904 1,900,153 26,548,253 26 3,607,057 1,592,895 2,014,162 24,534,091 27 3,607,057 1,472,045 2,135,011 22,399,080 28 3,607,057 1,343,945 2,263,112 20,135,968 29 3,607,057 1,208,158 2,398,899 17,737,069 30 3,607,057 1,064,224 2,542,833 15,194,236 31 3,607,057 911,654 2,695,403 12,498,833 32 3,607,057 749,930 2,857,127 9,641,706 33 3,607,057 578,502 3,028,555 6,613,152 34 3,607,057 396,789 3,210,268 3,402,884 35 3,607,057 204,173 3,402,884 0 AIDEA 172 Exhibit A12 ELV qx” COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC DIESEL CASE ASSUMPTIONS vadlv eLb 1992 PRICE PER KW INFLATE AT 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1,112 3.5% LIS 1,191 1,233 1,276 1,321 1,367 1,415 1,464 1,516 1,569 1,623 1,680 1,739 1,112 5.0%. 1,168 1,226 1,287 1,352 1,419 1,490 1,565 1,643 1,725 1,811 1,902 1,997 2,097 COST FOR 2150 KW 2,474,478 2,510,340 2,561,085 2,635,857 2,650,723 2,767,650 2,743,498 2,906,032 2,839,520 3,051,334 2,938,904 3,203,901 3,041,765 3,364,096 3,148,227 3,532,300 3,258,415 3,708,915 3,372,460 3,894,361 3,490,496 4,089,079 3,612,663 4,293,533 3,739,106 4,508,210 vadiv bl Very mqrxg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE YEAR ACQUIRED PRINCIPAL INTEREST RATE TERM PAYMENT ANN DEPREC COST ESCALATOR YEAR PAYMENT 1 240,396 2 240,396 3 240,396 4 240,396 5 240,396 6 240,396 7 240,396 8 240,396 9 240,396 10 240,396 1 240,396 12 240,396 13 240,396 14 240,396 15 240,396 16 240,396 17 240,396 18 240,396 19 240,396 20 240,396 1995 2,648,800 6.5% 20 (240,395.54) 132,440 3% INTEREST 172,172 167,737 163,015 157,985 152,628 146,923 140,848 134,377 127,486 120,147 112,331 104,006 95,141 85,700 75,644 64,935 53,531 41,384 28,449 14,672 PRINCIPAL 68,224 72,658 77,381 82,411 87,767 93,472 99,548 106,018 112,910 120,249 128,065 136,389 145,254 154,696 164,751 175,460 186,865 199,011 211,947 225,724 BALANCE 2,648,800 2,580,576 2,507,918 2,430,538 2,348,127 2,260,360 2,166,887 2,067,340 1,961,321 1,848,412 1,728,163 1,600,098 1,463,709 1,318,454 1,163,758 999,007 823,547 636,682 437,670 225,724 0 yvaalv Slt CULV NqMXA COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE YEAR ACQUIRED PRINCIPAL INTEREST RATE TERM PAYMENT ANN DEPREC COST ESCALATOR YEAR PAYMENT 1 248,981 2 248,981 3 248,981 4 248,981 5 248,981 6 248,981 7 248,981 8 248,981 9 248,981 10 248,981 1 248,981 12 248,981 13 248,981 14 248,981 15 248,981 16 248,981 17 248,981 18 248,981 19 248,981 20 248,981 1996 2,743,400 6.5% 20 (248,981.10) 137,170 3% INTEREST 178,321 173,728 168,837 163,627 158,079 152,171 145,878 139,176 132,039 124,438 116,342 107,721 98,539 88,760 78,346 67,255 55,442 42,862 29,465 15,196 PRINCIPAL 70,660 75,253 80,144 85,354 90,902 96,810 103,103 109,805 116,942 124,543 132,639 141,260 150,442 160,221 170,635 181,727 193,539 206,119 219,516 233,785 BALANCE 2,743,400 2,672,740 2,597,487 2,517,342 2,431,989 2,341,087 2,244,276 2,141,173 2,031,368 1,914,426 1,789,883 1,657,244 1,515,984 1,365,542 1,205,321 1,034,686 852,959 659,420 453,302 233,785 0 vadlv QLb evry uqIUXA COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE YEAR ACQUIRED PRINCIPAL INTEREST RATE TERM PAYMENT ANN DEPREC COST ESCALATOR YEAR PAYMENT 1 257,762 2 257,762 3 257,762 4 257,762 5 257,762 6 257,762 7 257,762 8 257,762 9 257,762 10 257,762 11 257,762 12 257,762 13 257,762 14 257,762 15 257,762 16 257,762 17 257,762 18 257,762 19 257,762 20 257,762 1997 2,840,150 6.5% 20 (257,761.78) 142,008 3% INTEREST 184,610 179,855 174,791 169,398 163,654 157,537 151,023 144,085 136,695 128,826 120,445 111,520 102,014 91,890 81,109 69,626 57,398 44,374 30,504 15,732 PRINCIPAL 73,152 77,907 82,971 88,364 94,108 100,225 106,739 113,677 121,066 128,936 137,316 146,242 155,748 165,871 176,653 188,135 200,364 213,388 227,258 242,030 BALANCE 2,840,150 2,766,998 2,689,091 2,606,120 2,517,756 2,423,649 2,323,424 2,216,685 2,103,008 1,981,941 1,853,006 1,715,689 1,569,447 1,413,700 1,247,828 1,071,175 883,040 682,676 469,288 242,030 0 COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE YEAR ACQUIRED 1998 PRINCIPAL 2,939,050 INTEREST RATE 6.5% TERM 20 PAYMENT (266,737.58) ANN DEPREC 146,953 COST ESCALATOR 3% YEAR PAYMENT INTEREST PRINCIPAL BALANCE 2,939,050 1 266,738 191,038 75,699 2,863,351 2 266,738 186,118 80,620 2,782,731 3 266,738 180,878 85,860 2,696,871 4 266,738 175,297 91,441 2,605,430 3 266,738 169,353 97,385 2,508,045 6 266,738 163,023 2) 1035715 2,404,331 7 266,738 156,281 110,456 2,293,874 8 266,738 149,102 117,636 2,176,239 ' 9 266,738 141,456 125,282 2,050,957 ' z 10 266,738 133,312 133,425 1 13917;531 | 3 11 266,738 124,640 142,098 1,775,433 12 266,738 115,403 151,334 1,624,099 13 266,738 105,566 161,171 1,462,928 14 266,738 95,090 171,647 1,291,280 3 15 266,738 83,933 182,804 1,108,476 16 266,738 72,051 194,687 913,789 i 17 266,738 59,396 207,341 706,448 { 18 266,738 45,919 220,818 485,629 19 266,738 31,566 235,172 250,458 20 266,738 16,280 250,458 0 Ply wqTyX vadlv slb CPly uqryxg COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE YEAR ACQUIRED PRINCIPAL INTEREST RATE TERM PAYMENT ANN DEPREC COST ESCALATOR YEAR PAYMENT 1 327,812 2 327,812 3 327,812 4 327,812 5 327,812 6 327,812 7 327,812 8 327,812 9 327,812 10 327,812 11 327,812 12 327,812 13 327,812 14 327,812 15 327,812 16 327,812 17 327,812 18 327,812 19 327,812 20 327,812 2004 3,612,000 6.5% 20 (327,812.10) 180,600 3% INTEREST 234,780 228,733 222,293 215,434 208,129 200,350 192,065 183,241 173,844 163,836 153,178 141,827 129,738 116,863 103,151 88,548 72,996 56,433 38,794 20,007 PRINCIPAL 93,032 99,079 105,519 112,378 119,683 127,462 135,747 144,571 153,968 163,976 174,634 185,985 198,074 210,949 224,661 239,264 254,816 271,379 289,019 307,805 BALANCE 3,612,000 3,518,968 3,419,889 3,314,369 3,201,991 3,082,309 2,954,847 2,819,100 2,674,529 2,520,561 2,356,586 2,181,951 1,995,966 1,797,892 1,586,943 1,362,282 1,123,018 868,202 596,823 307,805 0 COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST RESULTS NUMBER OF SERVICES BECK CVEA CVEA YEAR MEDLOW MEDHIGH HIGH PRS ACTUAL 1993 2,912 2,912 2,913 2,893 2,943 1994 2,959 2,959 2,986 2,957 1995 3,017 3,017 3,071 3,030 1996 3,076 3,076 3,157 3,112 PETRO STAR DEMAND (KW) BECK CVEA CVEA MEDLOW MEDHIGH HIGH PRS ACTUAL 1993 1,600 1,600 1,600 2,375 1,800 1994 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,375 1995 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,375 1996 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,375 1997 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,375 2004 3,000 5,500 5,500 2,375 AIDEA 179 Exhibit Bl 3000- LZ /| 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1993 70,000,000~ | _s—«Kjlowatt Hour Sales 60,000,000- 50,000,000~ 40,000,000- 30,000,000- 20,000,000- 10,000,000~ AIDEA 180 Exhibit B2.1 400 350 300 250 200 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1993 80,000,000 70,000,000 Composition of Generation 60,000,000 +——| E Hydro hl | 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 tos TEE 20,000,000 0 —————— | 10,000,000 0 4993 |—-_—_. AIDEA 181 Exhibit B2.2