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To: Dennis McCrohan From: Dave Gray
Company: AIDEA Date: January 23, 1996
Message:
Attached is the cost estimate memo in draft form. The risk analysis section needs to be added. The risk
analysis write-up for the Intertie will be sent to you this afternoon.
{QQ 5
sheet. If you are not the intended recipient, disclosure, copying, distribution or use of this information is prohibited, If you do not The information in this fax is confidential and proprietary and is Intended only for the individual or entity named on the cover
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T@*d CGH WeeT:TT 966T ‘fe Nor 8662 £89 406 701 ¥AS-TNIH W2HD :WONs
TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM CHMHILL
Evaluation of Cost Estimates for Copper Valley
Intertie and Alternatives
PREPARED FOR: Dennis McCrohan
PREPARED BY: Dave Gray
DATE: January 23, 1996
Summary
it t eStimates for the Copper Valley This memorandum presents CH2M HILL’s analysis 6f,
alley Flectric Association. The Intertie and other power supply altematives fos,Copp'
power supply alternatives are: ‘
¢ All Diesel generation (continuatio j g thod of generation)
¢ Intertie to natural gas generation’ ka’ Ubelt region ¢ Allison Lake hydroelectric gener iptt
e Silver Lake hydroelectric.generation”
« Valdez Coal eee, _S
ee 4 4 Construction cost estitmates for eagh blternative and opcralion and maintenance (O&M) cost
estimates for one alternatiyé'with’relatively high O&M costs (the All Diesel alternative)
were evaluated. For selected, Itertiatives, analysis was also conducted of the risk of costs
actually varying from estimated levels.
The cost estimates evaluated were presented in the Copper Valley Intertie Feasibility Study
completed in 1994 (referred to as the “Intertie Feasibility Study”); these estimates were
subsequently used in the Copper Valley Intertie Feasibility Study Update in 1995 (referred
to as the “Intertie Feasibility Update”),
Public comment on the Intertie Feasibility Update was made during mectings in held in the
first week of December, 1995. Aunumber of the comments made during these meetings
reflected concern about the accuracy and consistency of cost estimates for the alternatives
evaluated, This memorandum is intended to respond to these concerns. a,
CH2M HILL reviewed the approach taken to develop construction cost estimates for each
alternative and checked the consis ese estimates. Risk analysis to test the
probability o 1 duc or t-cost alternatives,
SEA/COST-EST.DOC
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Summary results of the overall analysis are shown in Table 1. Cost estimates for the
various alternatives were either developed for the Intertie Veasibility Study or taken from other studies, Estimates taken from other studies were adjusted to 1993 dollars, as shown in the first three columns of Table 1. Adjustments CH2M HILL made to these estimates are reflected in the fourth column. Comparison between the third and fourth columns show that CH2M HILL generally accepts estimates made for the Intertie Feasibility Study.
Table 1 also shows costs for a new design proposed for Silver Lake (Option C), This
estimate is based on a proposed design by Whitewater Engineering. Cost estimates
prepared by Whitewater were evaluated and adjusted to the $39.6 million estimate shown
in the table.
<
project will not likely —— .
there is an 80
Risk analysis of [ntertie construction shows that the cost to _
vary by substantial amounts from the cost estimate. As tablg'l sh
: n'goncludet that replacement
tion efficiency and
ant with the “Modified All
nalysis included in the Feasibility
fon of including evaluation of the Silver
nin Table 2, this new design option
makes Silver Lake one of the le $'with the Intertie and the All Diesel
alternative (assuming CV ea leeds ai théwhedium-low to medium-high range). On
the basis of data currently" ite able, Lake is still not considered as a realistic option
because of the Four ‘ool charge as$gCciated with this alternative. (The effects of this charge are not reflect Table 2) } ig al
Following this summary a he fa déctions. The first section contains a description and
analysis of the cost estimate foreach alternative. The second section is a risk analysis of
three least-cost alternatives: the Intertie, the All Diesel, and the Silver Lake Option C
alternatives, Each of the two sections begins with a brief review of the approach taken for
the analysis in the section.
ow F
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Table 1
Analysis of Construction Cost Estimates for Copper Valley Intertie and Alternatives
Original Cost Estimates
Oollars (000 Basis Year Dollars (000) Dollars (000)
All Diesel
intertie
Allison Lake
Silver Lake Option A
Silver Lake Option C
Valdez Coal
1/23/96COST-SUM.XLS
v@*d Co6PH WET: TT S66T
Intertie Feasibility Study
11,625 47,604 30,937 52,496
na 36,600
‘fe Nor
1993
1993
1992
1992
na
1993
1993
11,625
47,604
32,240
54,185
na
36,600
8662 £89 206
CH2M HI E; i
Base Estimate Risk Adjusted Estimates In 1993 20th 50th 80th
Percentile Percentile Percentile
3240
§4,18 na 9638 36,000
:0L
Os “a
(to be developed)
45,400 47,400° 49,800°
na
na na
na na
(to be develaped)
na na
YaS-TNIH W2HD:WOYsd
Alternatives
1994 All Diesel
Modified 1995 All Diesel
Interte
Allison Lake ¢
Silver Lake-Option A
Sltver Lake—Option C
Valdez Coal
1994 All Dlesel
Modified 1995 All Diesel
Intortie
Allison Lake *
Silver Lake-Option A
Silver Lake-Option C
Valdez Coal
1994 All Diesel
Modified 1995 All Diesel
Intertie
Allison Lake *
Silver Lake-Option A
Silver Lake—Option C
Valdez Coal
Table 2
Present Value and Benetit-Cost Ratlo for Power Supply Alternatives
‘
Low Fuel Cost Escalation
—With Petro Star. Without Petre Star_ Med. High Med. Low M-H/M-L' M-H/M-L? Fet.
LoadFet, boadFet, Load Fct. w/Alyeska
Present Value of Costs ($000):
60,483 65,924 35,673 81,263 67,632 61,697
66,955 49,592 35,706 5 75,772 66,054 55,893
56,088 54,227 47,685 , 59,740 $9,101 56,603
59,972 55,606 44,168 77,933
69,911 68,109 61,654 66,139
58,644 $6,895
88,683 83,962 73,938 104,811
0 ° ;
9,528 6,332 7133
4,395 1,697 12,112 6,094
511 4177
9,426 7,004
1,839 7,852 4,205
+28,200 -16,867 —-17,877
1,00 1.00
1.04 1.10. 116 108.
1.07 1.07
0,95 0,90
198. 11a 4.07
0.68 0.67 0.48 0.78 0.80 0.78
1 Possible generation resources at Alyaska and Petra Star are excluded from this analysis due to
lack of data on resource development costs.
2 M-H/M-L = Medium-High/Medium Low. Since tho difference between the medium high and medium
low forecasts Is only the fength of time Petro Star's Valdez refinery Is in operation, thaso forecasts aro identical
if Petro Star is assumed to leave the CVEA system.
3 1993 dollars based on a 4,5 percont discount rate
4 Excludes 4-Dam Pool charga
1/22/96RESULT3.XLS
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High Fuel Cost Escalation —With Pelo Star ___Without Petro Star _ Med. High Med.Low M-H/M-L? M-H/M-L' Fet. LeadFet, LoadFet. Load Fet.. wiAlyeska
39,984
40,373
49,296
44,781
61,892
69,302
0.58
92,414
87,853
64,293
85,249
91,186
101,172
4,561
26,121
7,165
1,228
-8,758
1,00
1.05
1.44
1.08
1,01
ost
¥3S-TNIH WHS :WOaes
Evaluation of Cost Estimates for Each Alternative
Approach
Evaluation of the cost estimates for each alternative was conducted through:
e Review of reports and other documentation supporting each estimate. This review was
performed by experts in the primary technology employed for gach alternative
« Aworkshop focusing on the various estimates and consisten¢ among the estimates.
Workshop participants included the individuals reviewing’ gost estimate for each
alternative, individuals who developed the original estirh teSparid cost estimating and
risk analysis facilitators. A checklist was developed. as * basis ti
consistency of inclusion of specific cost elements jrt th estimate
also conducted. if, ha
. rine of information eT from the oT iB, dogiimentation and the me # “hy
Oss analysis was
the cost estimates were warranted on the gr
consistency among the estimates.
All Diesel Alternative
Project Description wo "
Currently, diesel generatoze’a rate bing ‘used. at Clennallen and Valdez for generating and re-
serve requirements alo ve those thetby hydroelectric generation at Solomon Gulch. These
two sites each have seven ching jjas shown in Table 3.
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TABLE 3
CVEA Existing Diesel Generation
Glenallen Capacity (kW) Valdez Capacity (kW)
Unit 1: Fairbanks Morse 300° Unit 1: Fairbanks 600
1959 Morse 1966
Unit 2: Fairbanks Morse 300* Unit 2: Fairbanks 600
4959 Morse 1966
Unit 3: Fairbanks Morse 600 Unit 3: Fairbanks 600
1963 Morse 1966
Unit 4: Fairbanks Morse 600 Unit 4; Enterprise 1700
1966 4972 si “
Unit 5: Fairbanks Morse 600 Unit 5: Entergi sg” 2500 1966 1975" iy,
lh, Unit 6; Enterprise 2200 erpristhy, 950 1975 ‘
thy Unit 7: Enterprise 2200 (Turbine) 2800 1975 76
*Unit is no longer in service,
The all diese! alternative assumes that Solomoh | Gulchvan esel generation would con-
tinue to be used to meet CVEA generation and i igserve requirements. Under this alterna-
tive, several new units would be, ee h a existing units at the time that major
overhauls would otherwise occa,
Mh,
New generating, units would" Beschoben
supplier is intended to aioid's Support ands upply problems exhibited with the existing y En-
terprise (recently) an Fal — pa (historically) units. The size of engine to be pro-
vided is set between 1, Oe an 100 kW, presumably to support ease of installation
and provide flexibility in’ n Yeadkfotl fpting Wy,
The addition of an additional’ wtline generator at Glennallen can be accommodated with
the existing building configuration-additional units would require expansion of facilities.
There is presently no room for additions at the Valdez plant. Also, it is assumed that a
300,000-gallon fuel tank would be required at Valdez to supplement the current fuel
system. Modifications to plant switchyard systems could certainly be required at either
plant, due to the age of the present system and due to the demands of new generating
equipment.
Cost Estimate
Engine generator cost estimates developed R.W. Beck in the 1994 Intertie Feasibility Study
are shown in Table 4.
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88'd
TABLE 4
R.W. Beck Diesel Generator Cost Estimates
Description Caterpillar 3606 (1993 dollars) Caterpillar 3608 (1993 dollars)
Output (kW) 1,610 840
Engine $749,560 $883,875
Generator $80,500 . $107,500
Cooling System $50,930 $67,540
Exhaust System $10,230 $12,210
Alr Start System $26,400 $26,400
Fuel System $27,500 $27,500
Station Battery $7,700 $7,700
Switchgear $110,000 $110,000
Total Equipment $1,062,820 $1,242,725
Engine Cost/kW ' $692 $527
Permitting, Site Prep, .
Engineering, Installation $298,254
Delivery $37,281
Contingency $186,409
Total $1,764,669
Cost per kW $821
"haa Mi, |
This estimate was perfdtméd at ay spiminary level of detail, which is not unusual for a
facility of this kind. Mia,
The contingency amount shown is about 15 percent of equipment costs. Delivery is
3 percent of equipment costs, and permitting/site preparation/enginecring/ installation
costs are shown as 24 percent of equipment costs.
Costs included in the estimate that may be overestimated or may even not be incurred are:
* Costs shown for permilting/site preparation/engineering/ installation do not necessar-
ily reflect the existing conditions at the sites. Provisions generally exist for new ma-
_ chines, particularly if they replace existing machines. Air permits may be simply
revised, site work may be minimal and engineering is limited to building and system
changes (engine engineering is included in the purchase price). Installation is partially
covered by engine support (provided by the supplicr).
« Switchgear costs assume upgrade and/or new equipment provided with the new ma-
chines. Existing electrical systems may be sufficient, or require minimal changes, to
support the new machines.
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Costs that appear not to be included in the estimate are:
* Fuel system upgrade costs are not shown; Valdez may required a new fuel storage tank, estimated by R.W. Beck at $1.5 million.
¢ Switchyard improvements are not shown; either site may require substation and other improvements, estimated by R.W. Beck at $550,000,
e Engine foundation and structural support systems may not be adequate for the new
machines. The area provided for expansion (or developed for expansion) may require
foundation preparation or piling to support the new machine.
« Air shed capacities are limited at Valdez. Both plants operate ahove PSD limits and
hence Title V air permit requirements apply. This could tranghité'to air modeling and
other air permitting work, triggered solely by the additio Sf modern equipment-the
last machine was added at Glennallen in 1975 and at Valdg2'in "1976
vn
in Table 5,
TABLE 5 ty CH2M HILL Adjustments to R.W, Beck Ca ital icase Stimates! ‘All-Diesel Alternatives
Cost (1993 dollars)
R. W. Beck CH2M HILL
$2,000,000 $2,000,000
$6,214,000 $6,214,000
$ 550,000 $550,000
$ 186,000 $186,000
Structures and Improvements
Engine Generator & Accessories
re Substation/Transmission f
Delivery
Total Direct Construction $8,950,000 $8,950,000 asta,
Permitting i 0 $500,000
Engineering & Design $1,401,000 $1,491,000
Subtotal $10,441,000 $10,941,000
Contingency $1,184,000 $1,184,000
Total $11,625,000 $12,125,000
This cost estimate reflects installation of five 3608 CAT engines (as shown in 1995 CH2M
HILL report) at Glennallen (2) and Valdez (3). It assumes retirement of Unit 6 at Glennallen
and Units 4, 5 and 6 at Valdez, and relocation of Unit 7 at Glennallen to Valdez.
This cost estimate also shows $500,000 in permitting costs, recognizing potential problems
at both sites with air shed and permitting to Title V requirements.
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Possible limitations to this cost estimate are as follows:
¢ Fuel system changes have been discussed for the Valdez plant, but were not acknowl- edged for the Glennallen plant. Cost at either site may not be adequately addressed in the cost estimate.
¢ Electrical substation improvements have not been defined at vither plant. The allowance shown in the cost estimate may not be sufficient for both plants.
Conclusion
The engine generator cost estimates provided for this alternative are reasonable, and typical
for projects of this type. However, they may not adequately reflect powerplant building
changes, significant fuel system changes or electrical substation imiptovements, all of which
could be required, "
Copper Valley Intertie
Project Description ii Mig The proposed 138-kV transmission line betwee the.town allow the Copper Valley Electric Association € BA),
f'Sutton and Clennallen would
( ure Hase relatively low-cost power
from the generating utilities of Alaska’s Railbelt regign.“Fhe approximately 134-mile-long
intertie project would connect CVEA’ Association (MEA) transmission,éVat BYKV system to the 115-kV a Electric
MEA isisdrved by the Chugach Electric Associa-
tion transmission grid which is interconheected {
Light and Power gas-fired generat 5 ith Chugach and Anchorage Municipal réources:
“th,
ie
Cost Estimate eé ) ’
Table 6 shows a summiary’of the cbs t estimate of the intertic prepared by R.W. Beck as part
of the 1994 Copper Valleyilntestié Feasibility Study. This estimate was intended to be an
appropriately accurate repfagentation of the total cost to develop and construct the project,
so that fair economic comparisons can be made with the other power supply options.
The estimate was based on investigations conducted by R.W. Beck and its consulting, part-
ners. The estimate was based on consideratio electrical s act, the a
preferred line route, and a specific construction concept. Dames and Moore. Inc. was
responsible for the environmental analysis, and Power Technologies, Inc. (PTI) was
responsible for the electrical system analysis. PT modeled the Railbelt system with the
CVEA system connected through the intertie. Numerous loading and system switch
positions were used in computer simulations to determine the limitations imposed by the
intertie. PTI found that with one Chugach 115-kV line segment out of service, CVEA loads
above the planni ‘oximately 15 MW would require the addition of a
Static VAR Compens: (SVC) at the new Sutton substation. ‘lo avoid the installation and
a the expense of the SVC, CVEA has elected to sever the intertic under these conditions and
meet system load with a mix of available resources of including load shedding, if
necessary. These are consistent with railbelt utility practices.
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TABLE 6
Copper Valley Intertie Cost Estimate
Cost
Description (1993 dollars)
Transmission Line Construction
Structures $7,717,699
Foundations
Guys and Anchors
Framing
Conductor
Right-of-Way Clearing 2,792,960
Mobilization 1,284,405
Subtotal Transmission Line Construction 30,765,457
Substation Construction
New Sutton Substation 1,824,316
1,793,903
3,799,130
Direct Construction Cost 34,564,587
Engineering sent ' 3,337,900
Construction ane 2,159,352
Environmental Services and Pe 1,405,000
Right-of-Way Acquisition 713,000
Owner's Costs 1,360,392
Subtotal 43,540,231
Gontingency 5,245,036
Total Cost 47,604,356
Preferred Route Alternative D.
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10
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The R.W. Beck study includes estimates of the construction cost for four candidate line routes and recommends an “apparent preferred” route, as mentioned above, These esti- mates are both comprehensive and high ily detailed. The analysis supporting the estimate begins with basic constructio erous linked spreadsheets for the extension of material and labor costs. For ors the study considers the overall cost impact of several conductor types that meet the economic conductor size, The study also
includes preliminary design of the strength, weight, and cost of several types of structures. The estimate itemizes the quantity and distribution of structure heights, span lengths, and
construction assemblies, including insulators, nuts, and bolts, for each of the four distinctly
different segments of the line route. The four line segments are referred to as structural
Loading Zones that are distinguished by the weather exposure, terrain, vegetation, and soil
conditions .
Cost estimate contingencies are normally included to provide
that cannot be anticipated at the time of the estimate but coufel agohebly be expected.
Such costs might include material and labor cost increases)'¢hanges ‘during construction
due to soil conic, eeu rule changes, or inagveién nt design 6 issions. The R.W.
Evaluation of Cost Estimate
The Power Engin tudy of 19931 develops
dollars Of $40 428,919 cd yaaa with the RW
The assumed design a. both esfinates are similar. However, several design
assumptions that would sen nat tomake k ke the eck estimate higher than that by Power Engi-
neers. First, because of "off agess pebbl s at the existing O’Nei! Substation, Beck determined
that the Sutton terminal eal anew substation some distance from the old sub-
station, Second, Beck ass ‘Sqrhewhat larger and stronger ACSR conductor (605
kcmil Teal) compared to thet ndtictor their estimate.
These design differences probably account for approximately $1,000,000 of the estimate dif-
ference.
* large difference also appears in Right-of-W: isition while Beck estimates $2,118,000
ower estimates $449,000; a $1,669,000 difference. c tal
Impact Study that was not anticipated as s ower at the time of their estimate.
Beck included 12 perce: r overall contingencies (construction and other cost) while
Power included 10 percent. This difference accounts for or about $1,000,000 of the
difference between the Beck and Power estimates. The Beck contingency i es
15 percent on direct construction costs and 10 percent on other costs. A 10 percent
} Power Engineers, Suttan to Glennallen 138kV Transmission Intertia Project, Volumo 2, Final Report, prepared for the
Copper Valley Electric Assaciation, Dated January, 1993.
2 The Beck and Powor Enginears routes are similar over the western-most 40 miles. At Syncline Mountain, the route
assumed by Power Engineers travels to the south and that assumed by R.W. Beck travels to tho north. From that point
to the east end of the project, Beck’s route remains 2 to 5 miles to the narth of the Power Engineers route. The Power
Engineers routa runs just to the North and parallel to the Glonn Highway.
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contingency on construction is often appropriate for projects that are designed and ready for bidding. However, becatise the geotechnical survey and detailed design has not been completed for this project, and because the foundation work is such a large part of this a project, we feel that the Beck 15 percent contingency on construction is appropriate.
Adding the above estimate differences to the Power estimate brings the Power estimate to
about $45,000,000 which is within 5 percent of the Beck estimate.
During public meetings regarding the intertie in early December 1995, two questions were
raised about specific aspects of the intertie cost estimate, Answers to these questions
follow.
Helicopter costs : R.W. Beck includes the use of helicopters in their construction estimate
where they are either required or economical to use. Beck estimates'683 hours at $239/hr
for a Bell personnel helicopter and 573 hours at $3 -lift Vertol 107-2 heli-
copter. “hy /
Comparison with other 115-kV or 138-kV Construction Pr i
divides the line route into four loading zones that regull ‘in differing cost i
Conclusion
The R.W. Beck estimate is*
overall [ntertie costs fot
options. hy
adeq atéiart credible representation of the itemized and
papel eédnomic comparison with other power supply iy
Project Alternative Allison Lake Hydroelégti}
Project Description
Allison Lake is located about 2 miles southwest of Solomon Gulch Reservoir. The Allison
Lake Project evaluated in the 1994 Intertie Study and the 1995 update, would divert water
from Allison Lake to the Solomon Gulch Reservoir during the winter months in order to
provide additional generator at the Solomon Gulch Project. Several design options at Alli-
son Lake were reviewed in the Allison Lake Reconnaissance Study, prepared by HDR
Engineering, Inc. (HDR) in September 1992. The preferred option identified in this study
consists of an 11,950-foot-long tunnel from Allison Lake to the Solomon Gulch Reservoir, a
lake tap approximately 2,100 feet below the surface of Allison Lake, and a 3,145-kW
hydroelectric generation facility located at the discharge from the tunnel into the Solomon
Gulch reservoir, Water would be withdrawn from Allison Lake, flow through the tunnel,
and then pass through the generation facility and discharge into Solomon Gulch Reservoir.
This water from Allison Lake would then be available to provide additional generator at the
existing Solomon Gulch generation facility. The total expected average an nual energy to be
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produced from the new powerhouse plus the increased production from the existing Solomon Gulch facility was estimated to be about 27,400 MWh.
Another alternative, that would not require the passing of Lake Allison water into the
Solomon Gulch reservoir or any other modifications to the Solomon Gulch hydroelectric
project, would be a stand-alone project on Allison Creek. The U.S. Army Corps of Engi-
neers studied such a project in 1981 and their construction cost estimate was subsequently
updated by HDR in 1992. The project would consist of an Allison lake tap and a combina-
tion of tunnel and pipeline to convey water down to a new powerhouse on Allison Creek
just above its mouth near sea level. The estimated project cost was substantially higher than
the preferred option ($53,666,932 in 1992 dollars) and the expected average annual energy
was assumed to be somewhat lower (25,900 MWh). my
Currently the Alaska Business and Industrial Development Co Sopdtion (ABIDC) holds a
FERC Preliminary Permit to study a standalone project on Alison @yeek. The project con-
cept is similar to that studied by the Corps of Engineers ind'9at exteptifor the following:
! ‘hy « A trench and siphon intake would replace the lake'tap ay
¢ The water would be conveyed down to the powe by pipeline only, rather the
tunnel/ pipeline combination. i!
ABIDC is currently proposing a 5-MW install
prepared by ABIDC. i,
Cost Estimate
Table 7 provides a summary co! summary of a more detailed cash estignae preBared in 1992 by HDR as part of theic Alli-
son Lake Reconnaissance'Stud ; I <
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Table 7
Alison Lake Project
Summary Construction Cost Estimate
pate (1992 3
Lard and Land Rights $ 200,000
Structures and Improvements $ 4,822,860
Reservoirs, Darrs, and Waterways $ 17,122,400
Turbines and Generators (Ind, Gov. & Exciter) Fy 976,000
Accessory Electical Equipment $ oy 24Q000
Mscellansous Mecharical Eqiprent mu
Structures and Improvements (Trans. Facilites)
Substation Eqiprert &Stuctres
Fixtures, Conductors & Devices
Total Oirect Construction Costs
Design Engineering (994
Geotedtrical , Barings, & Scisric Surveys
FERC and Other Licensing
Evaluation of Cost Estimate
The level of cost detail provided for this alternative was ample for a reconnaissance-level
investigation. The estimate included a cost contingency of approximately 24.0 percent of
construction and other costs. This appears appropriate for this level of study.
The major uncertainty with this alternative is with the construction of the “lake tap”
underneath Allison Lake. Considerable amount of debris apparently exists on portions of
the lake bottom, and to the e
unknown at this time. No cost allowance for any dredging was included i
addition the exact location at which the lake t
it exists at the proposed lake ta location is
e estimate. [In
ap is to be made is of critical importance and considerable subsurface investigation and analysis will be required before construction can
begin. Poor rock conditions could even potentially render this alternative unfeasible.
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Conclusions
In our opinion, the cost estimate as developed by HDR is reasonable and the project, as configured, appears to provide for a “utility grade” (50-year) facility, consistent with the
standards we believe are necessary.
Silver Lake Hydroelectric Project Alternative: Option A
Silver Lake is situated about 15 miles southwest of Valdez, The outlet from the lake forms
the Duck River which flows into Galena Bay. The Allison Lake Reconnaissance Study
briefly reviewed two options for project development: Option A, proposed by Stone &
Webster in 1982 and 1983, and Option B proposed by Whitewater Engineering Corporation
(Whitewater) in 1992. Following is an evaluation of Option A. .
Project Description
This option includes a 125-foot high roller-compacted conereté (I
108-inch pipeline, and a 15-MW powerhouse located abélevation 6 e
powerhouse would be equipped with three 5-MW Eraneis turbines. ‘TrahSmission to the
Solomon Gulch Project would be accomplished with!a 22s 1ilé-long overhead transmission
line. The total expected average annual energy. to be praduted by this option was estimated to be about 44,800 MWh. co “y
#
Cost Estimate
Table 8 provides a summary constrticti ect. It is a summary of a more detaijéd c<
their Allison Lake Reconnaissancty Study y
_polilluy
Evaluation of Cost Estimate,
The original cost estinjate for this
of a Cordova power subply,jnteri
i= was prepared in 1982 by Stone & Webster as part
oly asibility assessment. HDR developed the costs con-
tained in Table 2 by using'the’ xiantities previously developed by Stone & Webster and
applying their o nit pricés..FIDR presented the estimate in about the same level of
detail as provided in their Allison Lake estimate. In recent discussions with HDR it was
agreed that a cost allowance for geotechnical investigations should by added to their 1992
estimate-and that has be: , as shown in the table. This estimate included a contin-
gency of approximately 22.5 percent on the construction and other costs, which again
appears appropriate for this level of study.
The Silver Lake site is more remote than the Allison Lake which will make access for diffi-
cult and expensive. However there doesn’t appear to be any major technical barriers to
development of a project at Silver Lake. ,
The Duck River and surrounding lagoon area is reported to be a very productive region for
pink salmon. The elevation 65 site for the powerhouse is above what has been considered to
be an impassable fish barrier. Thus the environmental impacts on the fishery have been
viewed as minimal.
SEA/COST-EST.0OC 15
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Table 8
Silver Lake (Option A) Project
Summary Construction Cost Estimate (1982 $
Description
Land and Land Rights
Structures and Improvements
Tuttines and Generators (Ind. Gov. & Exciter)
Accessory Electical Equprrent
Mscellansous Mecherical Equprrent
Structes and Improvements (Trans. Facilities)
Substation Equprrent & Sructures
Fixures, Conductors & Oevices
Total Direct Construction Costs
Design Engineering (994
‘Geotechnical , Barings, & Seisrric Surveys
1982 Estimated Construction Ggst
‘Induded by HOR in 1996 :
Conclusions
The cost estimate for this option, as developed by HDR, in our opinion is reasonable and
the level of accuracy appears consistent with the Allison Lake Project estimate. This Silver
Lake option appears to also provide for a “utility grade” installation. ~
Silver Lake Hydroelectric Project Alternative: Option c ) 5 e
Project Description
As mentioned abové, Option B to hydroelectric development at Silver Lake was developed
by Whitewater Engineering in 1992. Whitewater updated its plan and related cost estimate
in a letter to AIDEA, dated November 13, 1995, The updated Whitewater plan is referred to
as Silver Lake Option C. It is similar to the Silver Lake Option A, except the powerhouse
SEA/COST-EST.DOC 16
aT'd C6pH WeOZ:TT 96E6T ‘£e NOL 8667 £89 406 :OL ¥YAS-TIIH W2HD:WOYS
site would be lowered from elevation 65 to elevation 35 and a submarine transmission cable would be substituted for the overhead transmission line. By locating the powerhouse down
at elevation 35 there would be some increase in energy production over the elevation 65 site, but that value has not been calculated yet. Whitewater recently received a FERC Preliminary Permit to further study the site.
Cost Estimate
A summary of Whitewater’s current construction cost estimate for Silver lake (Option C) is
shown in Table 9, This estimate was provided in Whitewater’s November 13, 1995, memo
which it updated on January 18, 1996. Some adjustments to the latest estimate were made
by CH2M HILL. The January 18 Whitewater estimate as adjusted by CH2M HILL is also shown in Table 9 (in the column entitled “CH2M HILL”). oy
Evaluayen of ne expeod
the table for consistency because this was n
estimate.
fytGwater costs with the following
{ i
modifications:
« Anallowance of $1,000,000 % the necessary land rights to develop
irt'the Silver Lake (Option A) estimate. e wsed sat owner(s) would be paid a royalty on
i jecome an operating expense. We assumed that
penne up-front payment.
Me for the a ‘superstructure, The Silver Lake eo A) estimate con-
tains a $600,000 allow: ice for a more substantial concrete/ masonry building super-
structure. For consistency between the two alternatives, we added the difference
($350,000) to our estimate. (Ifa prefabricated metal building were installed, mainte-
nance would increase above assum: els,
* Weused Whitewater’s November 13, 1995, costs for installation of the penstock.
SEA/COST-EST.DOC iz
8T'd C6PH WYTS:TT S6E6T ‘£e NUL 8662 £89 406 70L ¥AS-TIIH WHO :WOuS
Table 9
Silver Laks (Option C) Project
Sunmary Construction Cost Estimate
Cost (1996 $)
Description Whitewater CH2M HILL
Land and Land Rights $ 216,000 $ 1,216,000
‘Structures and Imoovemecnts $ 1,462,500 $ 1,612,500
Resencirs, Dams, and Waterways r 12869000 ¢ 14,069000
Turtines and Generators (Ind, Gov, & Excited) $ 308,000 $ 390.000
Aczassary Elearica Equipment $ 914000 3 91Q000
Msoefaneous Mocharical Equipment $ x
Structures and Inmprovemorts (Trans. Facilites) $
Substation Equiprrent &Srucures $
Fixtures, Conductors & Devices 9
Mobilization $
Total Direct Construction Costs,
Design Engincering
FERC and Otter Liconsing
Construction Management
Sbotal
Contingency
ih 1966 Estirered Constucién Cl
e We used Whitewater’s November 13, 1995, costs for purchase and installation of the
turbine and generator equipment.
2 We marginally increased Whitewater’s contingency from 15 to 20 percent. We are
satisfied with a 20 vontinge! ather e 24 percent figure used in the
Allison Lake estimate and 22.5 percent used in the Silver Lake Option A estimate. -
Locating the powerhouse down as low as elevation 35 could result in adverse impacts on
the salmon fishery. Whitewater has indicated that the upstream migrating salmon turn in
Bennett Creek before they reach the proposed powerhouse; but this will require further
study.
Also the swift currents and rough bottom conditions in Prince Williams Sound may make
it quite difficult to build and maintain the submarine transmission cable as proposed by
18
SEA/COST-EST.OOC
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” this time.
Whitewater. However the cost allowance for this cable is probably adequate to build an overhead transmission line.
Conclusions
Whitewater’s cost estimate presumably reflects the intent of a private power developer and engineer to take full financial responsibility for the planning, design, construction, and
perhaps even the ase of this project. Therefore it is a ffic ‘aw a direct cgst comparison betwe ¢ other ives whose e: by
inde . However, in our opinion, we believe that Whitewater would be
capable of developing this project to “utility-grade” standards (50-year life) for $39.6 million.
sy,
Valdez Coal Plant Alternative
Project Description e ,
Coal-fired powerplant to be located in Valdez, adjacent’ toiCVE A's exist diesel
powerplant. The project, proposed by a private dey oper (Algska Co ration Systems, il: Inc. [ACSI]) includes twin boilers (coal-fired and oilfiréd); tWin steam turbines (6 MW and
12 MW), a district heating system, limestone ag scrubber ool dry scrubber ayaa,
The district heating hot water sygiét
and dockside facilities, but therg,.
Coal for this project is peo N
by the project developer" Coal woul ‘ontainerized from the mine and 1 shipped over-the-
road to the railhead, thentranspartd id to Whittier for truck transport to the site. The cost of
coal (estimated at $50/t6n), Wes mining, all transportation and delivery to the site.
The site is reported to be suitepie for construction of a powerplant (bedrock), has nearby
sewer and water supplies from Valdez, and is near the diesel plant switchyard for power
sales. Ash removal will be to a nearby landfill or backhaul to the mine. The developer has
air permits filed for a former project that he feels will apply to this project.
Operation of the plant will be primarily on coal fuel, 10 months of the year. Output will
vary from 10 MW firm capacity to 1 - 1.5 MW during late spring. Shutdown will be during
the summer periods (June - August), Maintenance of the plant will be performed primarily
during the shutdown. Projected schedule for construction is 18 months.
Cost Estimate
Costs submitted by ACSI have been summarized by R.W. Beck in their 1994 report, as
shown in Table 10.
The contingency amount shown is 8 percent of total costs.
SEA/COST-EST.DOC 19
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Evaluation of Cost Estimate
The estimate provided has good detail in most areas and can be compared and evaluated
easily with other powerplant estimates. The contingency shown for this project is 7.5 per-
cent of construction and other costs; CH2M HILL recommends at least 15 percent of
construction and other costs for a well-defined project.
TABLE 10
ACSI Cost Estimate for Valdez Coal Alternative
Cost
Description {1993 Dollars)
Site Acquisition
Foundation and Buildings
Bollers
Turbine Generator
Utility Work $500,000
Other $1,000,000
Piping $1,000,000
Electrical $2,200,000
Subcontractor Services $600,000
Miscellaneous Equipment $400,000
Oistrict Heating System $3,000,000
Water Supply and Treaty ty ‘ $500,000
Contractor Overhead and ict, $1,600,000
Total Direct Construction Co e $18,500,000
Permitting : $150,000
Engineering and Design $850,000
Construction Management $1,000,000
Coal Reserves $2,300,000
Legal & development costs $1,900,000
Subtotal $24,700,000
Contingency $2,000,000
Total $26,700,000
SEA/COST-EST.0OC 20
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Costs ACSI included in the estimate that may be overestimated or may even not be incurred include the following:
¢ Engineering & Design: the developer intends to rely heavily upon the design
documents done for the proposed Air Force OTH-B project. If this is possible,
engineering costs would be minimal.
¢ Permitting: the developer hopes to use existing air permits from the OTH-B project. If
true, permitting costs would be minimal.
Costs that appear not to be included in the estimate include the following:
¢ Coal handling equipment: not specifically called out in the es
quately provided for.
te, may not be’ ade-
CH2M HILL recommends the Valdez Coal Pip f
shown in Table 11. I, 4
tl
There are several potential "fatal ft this project. They include:
¢ ACSI apparently has little or
tion and district heat gperatign. "Th
and sophisticated poWerplan esifn (a
would challenge voi] the most éxpertenced developer.
ht i ¢ Refurbishment costs'fgr'the ilers and turbines are almost impossible to verify, but are
well below new equipmignt'cests. If these equipment items cannot be refurbished, the
need for new equipment Will make the project more costly than construction with new
equipment.
¢ The lack of contracted district heating customers could severely hamper the economics
and operations of the coal plant. Steam demands determine the power levels possible
from the turbine generators. Revenue dollars from the heating plant offset project costs
and substantiate the cogenerator status of the project. Without full development of the
steam market, revenue requirements from the electric operation would increase to pro-
portionately higher levels.
¢ The technical basis of the project is questionable, in several areas. First, operations of a
coal plant ona part-time or reduced load basis is unprecedented and will result in fuel
handling problems and early deterioration of equipment. Second, conversion of an old
stoker boiler to a fluid-bed boiler cannot be verified or guaranteed to any acceptable
level of confidence. Third, the planned goal of electrical interconnection of the plant at
the existing diesel plant substation may well be impossible (since both plants may be
SEAICOST-EST.00C g 21
C2'd ~S6rH WeS:TT SEGT ‘Se NUL 8662 £89 2406 701 YAS-TNIH WHS :WOuSs
required to operate at the same time), resulting in unplanned substation and distribu-
tion system costs.
¢ The proposed transfer of air permits from past projects and equipment may not be ac-
cepted on a new project. Permitting in the Valdez area is anticipated to be difficult due
to the number of emission sources currently in operation. The proposed re-use of engi-
neering documents for this project may be flawed due to changes necessary for this
project.
TABLE 11
CH2M HILL-Adjusted Cost Estimate for Valdez Coal Alternative
Description
Site Acquisition
Foundation and Buildings
Boilers $4,000,000
Turbine Generator $2,000,000
Utility Work $1,000,000
Other $4,000,000
Piping $1,000,000
Electrical $2,200,000
Subcontractor Services $600,000
Miscellaneous Equipment $400,000
District Heating System $3,000,000
Water Supply and Treatment $500,000
Contractor Overhead and Profit $4,000,000
Total Direct Construction Cost $25,000,000
Permitting $250,000
Startup, Commissioning and Training $100,000
Engineering and Oesign $850,000
Construction Management $1,000,000
Coal Reserves $2,300,000
Legal & development costs $1,900,000
Subtotal $31,400,000
Contingency $4,600,000
Total $36,000,000
S€A/COST-EST.00C 22
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Conclusion
The cost estimate provided by the project developer is substantially low, when compared
against projects of similar complexity and technology. Construction costs alone for a project
of this type should be on the order of $25 million (as shown in Table 11), assuming used
equipment. New equipment would raise the cost much higher. Total costs for this project
should be on the order of $36 million.
All Diesel Alternative--Operation and Maintenance
Description
As described in the discussion of the construction cost for the A
Diesel alternative assumes that Solomon Gulch and diesel g:
used to meet CVEA generation and reserve requirements, this:alternative, several
new diesel units would be purchased to replace existin ‘upi at thé:titte major overhauls
of the existing units would otherwise occur. Full cap to.meet local,péak loads and
reserve requirements would be continue to be mairi t both Glennallen and Valdez.
‘es esel alternative, the All
ation would continue to be
ch f operator, four engine opera-
fox Oh rotation) and one engine
ditional CVEA staff are not easily
Staffing levels at Glennallen presently total si
tors (three operators / three shifts per day and,
mechanic. Due to the isolation location of Glép
available. we
Valdez maintains a plant staff of,four'p ‘ hief operator, two engine operators and
one engine mechanic, The Valdég Blany ! tolthe Solomon Gulch hydro plant, which
has additional CVEA staff for that’gpe ration “ind a dispatch control center (including
SCADA system monitorjstg),,F y ‘dro pla {, staff are cross-trained in diesel plant operations,
and hence offer addiiaptia
q
ower
For the All-Diesel A. ative, th ibe RW Beck study indicated that three new operators
would be added to the Valdez, P nt by 1997, to support new equipment and the increased
generation role. we
The 1995 CVEA Power Supply Study assumed staffing requirements, indicating the termi-
nation of five operators (four at Glennallen and one at Valdez). This was assumed due to
installation of new, more reliable engine generators and the installation of supervisory
SCADA equipment in both plants.
This can be summarized as follows:
S£4/COST-EST,00C 23
ve'd Cop Webe:TT S66T ‘£2 NUr 8662 £89 406 701 YAS-TIIH W2HD:WOds
All Diese Alternative
Case Glennatlen Plant Staffing Valdez Plant Staffing
Status Quo five four
1994 Study five seven
1995 Study one three
Evaluation
The All Diesel Alternative must have an appropriate nu
for engine (or gas turbine) generators that run in a pri
levels (five at Glennallen and four at Valdez) are apptq;
lation of SCADA monitoring and newer generating équipm,
for close supervision of equipment, particularly if CVEA, ‘ants to control damage to
equipment in an expeditious manner. Howeper,t ha SCADA System would allow CVEA to
proceed with the All Diesel alternative sli operation and maintenance
staff. 4
Current staffing
ative. The instal-
Fr i i
An increase in staffing levels for ‘the'Alt mative (as recommended in the 1994
study) is not warranted, eye: vwith’'the Ff power generation, Similarly, a reduction
in staffing for this Alterrtativécquld sériotisly endanger the availability of generators at the i" i
SEA/COST-EST.DOC 24
S@*d @6pH Wepe:TTt 966T ‘£2 NUL 8662 £89 406 :0L YAS-TIIH W2HD :WOds
ROCCO COCO OCCA COCOA COCA AACA OO OCC OOOO AACA OOK O OOOO AOAC OOOO COA OOOO OOO I OAC O OC NK xk POL x i TRANSACTION REPORT x x (a JAN-23-96 TUE 10:14 AM x
x X x DATE START — SENDER RX TIME PAGES TYPE NOTE x
x XK x JAN-23 10:01 AM CH2M HILL-SEA 13°12" 25 RECEIVE OK x
X x
OOK KKK KKK KKK KOK KKK KKK KKK KK KKK KOK KKK KKK KKK KOK KKK KOK KKK KK KKK KOK KKK KK KKK KOK KKK KKK
CRHMHIL FAX TRANSMITTAL FORM
FOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY
To; Dennis McCrohan
Firm Name: AIDEA
City:
Fax Phone Number: (907) 561-8998
Total number of pages, including this page: 2
From: Dave Gray
Date: September 27, 1995
FAX OPERATOR:
TIME SENT: AM _PM
Office:
State:
Verification Phone Number:
Retum original?;: #+YES NO
Office: SEA Employee No.: 760
IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ALL OF THE PAGES OR THE TRANSMISSION IS UNCLEAR, PLEASE
CONTACT YOUR FAX OPERATOR.
REMARKS:
Dennis--
At your request, I have updated the analysis of AIDEA’s long term real cost of money
originally conducted by Dick Emerman in 1992. J have followed the approach outlined in
Dick’s December 21, 1992, memo to Ronald Garzini.
Briefly, Dick’s approach was to estimate AIDEA’s Jong term real cost money for both taxable
and nontaxable bonds. The real taxable bond rate was estimated on the basis of the difference
between projected interest rates for A-rated utility bonds and inflation as measured by the
national CPI; the real nontaxable bond rate was estimated on the basis of the difference
between the projected interest rates as measured by the Tax-Exempt Revenue Bond Index
published in the Bond Buyer and inflation as measured by the national CPI.
In this update, projections were from the “Consensus Forecast” published for long term trends
in the March 1, 1995, issue of Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Projections for the Tax-
Exempt Revenue Bond Index were ratioed off of the Blue Chip forecast for interest rates on
30-Year Treasury Bonds on the basis of the historic ratio of the interest rate associated with
each.
Forecasts for each of these parameters is shown in the chart entitled “Consensus Forecast of
Inflation and Interest Rates”. The difference between the projected interest rate for each of the
three securities and the projected rate of inflation is shown in the chart entitled “Consensus
Forecast of Real Interest Rates”. The top line in this chart is for A-rated utility bonds. This
is the parameter that Dick concluded most closely represented AIDEA’s long term real cost of
FAX TRANSMITTAL
Page 2
September 27, 1995
money for projects that would be financed with taxable bonds. Dick’s analysis showed that
this parameter was 5 percent. In this update, the parameter is slightly lower at 4.8 percent.
As you know, the real long term cost of money was set at 4.5 percent in the 1994 Intertie
Smidy and in our update to that study.
The long term real cost of money for nontaxable securities was calculated to be 3.1 percent in
Dick’s 1992 analysis on the basis of the implicit forecast of tax exempt revenue bonds. As
shown in the second chart, this is now forecast to be slightly lower at 2.8 percent.
I will check in with you tomorrow to see if you have any questions or need additional
information.
Best regards.
—Dave
vat 2 Shee eanszanm Consensus Forecast of Inflation and Interest Rates
Tax Exempt Revenue Bonds 8 = i 4 ——— WYear Treasury Y¥I TT SET 204 2003 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1996 CR/IF/RO 9/27/95*Sheet1 Chart 2
WUUSsUUS raa L0-it US/ Zisr3ea 4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
25%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
9/27/95*Sheet1 Chart 3
; crite ERP Rest hes
Consensus Forecast of Real Interest Rates
2000 2001 2002 2003
SERS : a
‘A Utility Bond
—— — 30-Year Treasury
-++->- +Tax Exempt Revene Bonds
= ate a) ee Peewee Oe
° MME cncincess Vets hy y
MMMM ecnnes i | Ue App Economists au Mi MME scientisis a
September 1, 1995
117526.C0.ZZ
Mr. Dennis McCrohan
Deputy Director-Energy
Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority
480 West Tudor Road
Anchorage, Alaska 99501
Dear Dennis:
As we have discussed, the scope of CH2M HILL services to update the Copper Valley
Intertic Feasibility Study for AIDEA has evolved since our work began in June. The purpose
of this Jetter is to document these changes, list additional tasks needed to complete the work
process you outlined earlier this week, and request an increase in our fee to cover these extra
activitics.
Scope of Work Completed To Date
In addition to work identified in our June 12, 1995, letter to Riley Snell, we have performed
the following tasks:
° valuation of alternative bases for power supply from the Railbelt including
economy energy, firm energy, and firm energy with the cost of the Intertie
integrated into the rate base of Chugach Electric Association (CEA).
° Evaluation of two configurations for Copper Valley Electric Association's
(CVEA) all-diesel alternative
. Evaluation of CVEA’s power supply plan
. Review of future electric load possibilities associated with the Trans-Alaska Gas
System an the High Altitude Auroral Research Project
° Critical review of R.W. Beck’s resource cost model
Scottie Office 777 108th Avanue NE, Bellevue, WA 98004-5118 206 453-5000
P.O. Box 91500, Bellevue, WA 98009-2050 Fax No. 206 462-5957
er
. ==: i tee we eee Ce sur te 29s s'torii #eOe F.ue
Mr, Dennis MeCrohan
Page 2
September 1, 1995
1)7526.C0.ZZ
. Evaluation of potential electric supply development at Silver Lake and at
Alyeska
° In addition to documentation of our technical analysis, dcvclopment of a
detailed report for both technical and nontechnical audiences including
preparation of several draft reports
° Several planning and briefing trips between Seattle and Anchorage
Upcoming Tasks
l understand that you would like for us to continue to support AIDEA on this project in the
following ways:
° Conduct additional analysis as outlined in our August 29 meeting (the scope of
these changes were faxed to you on August 30) and prepare a new draft report.
° Direct and evaluate computer analyses for 36 different rate impact scenarios
(these computer analyses were outlined in a August 30 fax to you)
. Critically review R.W. Beck’s rate impact model
° Continue to edit the draft report for understanding by nontechnical audiences
. Participate in meetings with project stakeholders including: CVEA, Petro Star,
CEA, Alyeska, the Trustees for Alaska, Sutton community representatives,
Glennallen community representatives, and Valdez community representatives
. Brief the Copper Valley Intertie review committee on study findings and answer
questions
. Prepare three additional iterations of the project report
. Present study findings at a formal public meeting
Of course we will also be available to continue to meet other ATDEA needs that may develop
as the evaluation process continues.
Cost Estimate
The estimated cost to complete this work for AIDEA is $30,800. As shown in the attached
tabulation, this includes a 20 percent contingency for tasks that may develop between now and
hone nace Sen lus ver obi ose ser “ 1995 5:49PM #282 P.@3
Mr. Dennis McCrohan
Page 3
September 1, 1995
117526.C0.ZZ
completion of the project. Jf the need for these contingencies do not develop, the estimated
cost is $26,500,
We Jook forward to continuing to be of service to AIDEA and the review committee as the
States deliberation on the Intertic continues. As always, please do not hesitate to call me with
any questions or concerns you may have about our services to you.
Sincerely,
ane
David A Gray /
Project Manager
tree See tu: yur wus “uss vor
Copper Valley Intertie Feasibility Study Update
Workplan for Project Completion
Task Description
1 Analysis outlined in August 30 fax; prepare new draft
report
2 Direct and evaluate 36 rate analyses
3 Critically review R.W. Beck rate model and analysis
4 Edit for nontechnical audience (up to 2 additional draft
reports)
5 Participate in stakeholder meetings
6 Brief Governor's review committee :
7 Prepare up to 3 additional iterations of project report
8 Present study findings at a formal public meeting
Total
Copper Valley Intertie Feasibility Study Update
Budget for Project Completion
Labor $21,200
Support and Expenses 5,300
Contingency 4,300
Total $30,800
fs L230 oh Ww lw 25
oroerrl HoOS r. us