HomeMy WebLinkAbout14035_FalsePassHydro_REF_AEA_QAresponse_03012022polarconsult alaska, inc.
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M E M O R A N D U M
220301M-UNGAMAN REF AEA Q&ARESPONSE.DOC
DATE: March 1, 2022
TO: Karin St. Clair, Alaska Energy Authority
FROM: Joel Groves, P.E.
SUBJECT: Responses to AEA Review Questions on City of False Pass REF Grant Application for
Unga Man Creek Hydro Design and Permitting
CC: Nikki Hoblet, Mayor; Project File
Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) review questions on the City of False Pass’ (City) REF grant
application for design and permitting of a proposed hydro project on Unga Man Creek were
forward to Polarconsult on February 27, 2022. This memo answers the AEA review questions.
AEA review questions are listed below in bold blue. Polarconsult responses follow in black.
DESIGN
A 2016 Feasibility Study Progress Report was provided with the application. AEA would
like a copy of the final Feasibility Report.
This report is currently being finalized and will be issued in early March 2022. It will be
forwarded to AEA via the City when available.
Was there a recent Feasibility Report with cost estimate?
Yes, the above-mentioned feasibility study report includes a cost estimate.
The 2015 Reconn Report has design of 125 kW, flow 13 cfs, and assumed instream flow of
2 cfs. The 2016 Feasibility Study Progress Report had design of 140 kW, flow 13 cfs, and
assumed instream flow of 5 cfs. Application has design of 180 kW with flow of 18 cfs.
This is correct. The above-mentioned 2022 feasibility study report identifies a 180-kW
project. Each iteration of project analysis has considered then-available utility load and
hydrology data. Electricity load in False Pass has increased significantly over the course of
the studies, and optimal project size has increased accordingly.
What document recommends design of 180 kW and flow of 18 cfs?
The above-mentioned feasibility study report.
ADF&G Anadromous Fish Catalog has Chum, Pink, Sockeye, and Coho in the by-pass
reach.
The ADFG catalog listings are based in part on fisheries surveys conducted for this project.
Unga Man Creek was not listed in the catalog prior to 2015. Fisheries surveys for this
project conducted in August 2015, 2016 and 2017 determined that Unga Man Creek is
principally pink salmon habitat, with sockeye and chum also present and only trace
presence of coho. The creek is atypical habitat for sockeye and the observed sockeye may
be strays from nearby lake systems.
What discussions has False Pass had with ADF&G regarding in-stream flow requirement?
P OLARCONSULT M EMORANDUM
Page 2 of 3
There have only been limited discussions to date with ADFG at this stage of project
development. Fishery survey reports have been transmitted to ADFG and fish survey design
coordinated with ADFG to proactively identify and address expected resource questions.
Discussions of ISFR specific to the proposed project configuration have not begun.
What is the assumed in-stream flow requirement for current analysis?
No ISFR is assumed for the current analysis, but sensitivity analysis in the 2022 report does
address the impact of prospective ISFRs. The proposed intake location at RM 1.4 is just
above the confluence of the main stem and east forks of Unga Man Creek. East fork flow is
approximately 16% of total flow at the intake site, and this flow will remain in the creek
regardless of project operations. This may be sufficient to sustain salmon habitat without
need for further dedicated in stream flow reservation (ISFR).
Current ISFR expectations are based on salmon habitat mapping completed in 2017: 93% of
total habitat area is located downstream of the proposed tailrace location, and most of the
habitat in the bypass reach is of marginal quality.
COST ESTIMATE
o Documents gave a 2015 cost estimate based on ~$25,000/kW.
That is correct. That is the estimation methodology used in the 2015 reconnaissance study
and 2016 feasibility study progress report. It is not the estimation methodology used in the
2022 feasibility study final report.
o Application has construction cost of $4.7M.
That is correct.
Is there a more current or detailed site specific cost estimate?
Yes. The current cost estimate is based on the specifics of the recommended project as
presented in the application and the final feasibility study report.
o Does cost estimate include funding for construction administration/contingency?
Yes, the stated construction budget includes 5% of the direct construction cost for
construction administration, 3% for construction engineering, and 25% for overall
construction contingency.
Does cost estimate include funding for integrating hydro with diesel power plant?
Yes. $75,000 is budgeted for controls, including integration of the two plants. The specific
controls integration requirements have not been evaluated at this time as the currently
completed study is only feasibility-level.
HYDROLOGY
o 2021 Hydrology Report has a South Fork Flow Discharge Curve and hydrology based on
Russell Creek.
That is correct.
P OLARCONSULT M EMORANDUM
Page 3 of 3
Is there a flow discharge curve and hydrology for the potential inlet site (combined North
& South Forks)?
No, there is no gaging station established at that location. The hydrology model developed
based on the south fork gauging station record is the best currently-available hydrology
model for analysis of projects in the Unga Man basin. This is because (1) the south fork
gaging station has the most complete available period of record in the Unga Man Creek
basin (3.5 years of data in a 4.5 year period of record) and (2) year-round hydrology is well-
represented in the available data at this station. Both the north fork and bridge gauging
stations are significantly inferior candidates for record extension, with the north fork having
30% less data (2.5 years) and bridge site having 20% less (2.75 years). Both of these stations
also have portions of the year (mid-summer) with only a single year of data in their periods
of record, makes them inferior candidates for record extension.
Accordingly, the incremental effort to develop hydrology models based on the other two
gaging stations would not significantly increase overall confidence in the feasibility analysis
findings. This judgment is rendered with recognition of other uncertainties in the
feasibility-level analysis such as market for power, permit terms and conditions, actual
construction cost, etc.
The south fork extended record hydrology was applied to the RM 1.4 diversion site by
scaling south fork flows by the ratio of respective basin areas (2.59 mi2 / 1.19 mi2 = 2.17
multiplier) to estimate intake site hydrology.
With the assumed in-stream flow requirement what would be the resultant inlet flows?
Resultant inlet flows would be unchanged at up to 18 cfs as available, but this full design
flow would be available less often. The impacts of a presumed 2 or 5 cfs ISFR imposed at
the intake on project performance are summarized in the following table.
Hydro Plant Performance Parameter No ISFR 2 cfs ISFR 5 cfs ISFR
Resource capacity factor 75% 70% 63%
Percentage of Utility Load Met by Hydro 83% 81% 78%
Gross excess hydro kWhs available for dispatched
energy services 436,000 418,000 388,000
Resource capacity factor: Actual water available to the project divided by design flow on an annualized basis.