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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10 West Creek Econ Analysis 9 17 12 rsg WEST CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF COSTS AND BENEFITS Discount Rate 0.0%12.0% Net Present Value of Cruise Line Savings with West Creek 260,575,000$ 28,428,000$ Net Present Value of Skagway Costs with West Creek Debt Service 61,025,000$ 16,386,000$ O&M 188,283,000 19,852,000 Total 249,308,000$ 36,238,000$ Net Present Value of Skagway Net Revenue with West Creek Net Revenue 131,955,000$ 17,652,000$ B/C for Skagway 1.53 1.49 Net Present Value of AEA Costs with West Creek Grant Funding Total 112,000,000$ 112,000,000$ Net Present Value of AEA Net Revenue with West Creek Net Revenue 131,955,000$ 17,652,000$ B/C for AEA 1.18 0.16 WEST CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF COSTS AND BENEFITS WEST CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS General Inflation 2.75%O&M ($000)1,500$ Project Life, years 50 IRR 6.4% Total Project Cost 140,000 Financing Term, years 30 Diesel Generation Reserve Fund - Financing Rate 6.00% Fuel Inflation 3.75%Municipality Phase II & III grants 6,864 Reserve Fund Earnings Rate 4.00% Efficiency (kWh/gal)14.5 Municipality Phase II & III match 1,716 Initial Power Sales Rate, $/kWh 0.25$ Var O&M ($/kWh)0.01$ Construction % grant funding 80% Power Sales Escalation Rate 2.75% Min. O&M ($000)-$ Municipality Cost ($000)28,000$ Skagway Share of Net Revenue 50% AEA Cost ($000)112,000$ Load Growth Total Skagway Alaska 0.0%Diesel Fuel O&M Total $/kWh West Creek Debt Service O&M Rate, $/kWh Gross Revenue Net Revenue Net Revenue Net Revenue 2007 27,000 27,000 2008 3.00 27,000 27,000 2009 3.11 27,000 27,000 2010 3.23 27,000 27,000 2011 3.35 27,000 27,000 2012 4.02 27,000 27,000 updated September 17, 2012 2013 4.17 27,000 27,000 2014 4.33 27,000 27,000 -$ 2015 4.49 27,000 27,000 0.252 (140,000)$ 1 2016 4.66 27,000 27,000 8,673 345 9,018 0.334 27,000 2,034$ 1,864$ 3,898$ 0.259 6,991$ 3,093$ 1,547$ 1,547$ -$ -$ 2,027$ 2 2017 4.83 27,000 27,000 8,998 354 9,352 0.346 27,000 2,034$ 1,915$ 3,949$ 0.266 7,183$ 3,234$ 1,617$ 1,617$ -$ -$ 2,169$ 3 2018 5.01 27,000 27,000 9,336 364 9,700 0.359 27,000 2,034$ 1,967$ 4,002$ 0.273 7,381$ 3,379$ 1,690$ 1,690$ -$ -$ 2,319$ 4 2019 5.20 27,000 27,000 9,686 374 10,060 0.373 27,000 2,034$ 2,022$ 4,056$ 0.281 7,584$ 3,528$ 1,764$ 1,764$ -$ -$ 2,476$ 5 2020 5.40 27,000 27,000 10,049 384 10,433 0.386 27,000 2,034$ 2,077$ 4,111$ 0.289 7,792$ 3,681$ 1,841$ 1,841$ -$ -$ 2,641$ 6 2021 5.60 27,000 27,000 10,426 395 10,821 0.401 27,000 2,034$ 2,134$ 4,168$ 0.297 8,007$ 3,838$ 1,919$ 1,919$ -$ -$ 2,814$ 7 2022 5.81 27,000 27,000 10,817 406 11,222 0.416 27,000 2,034$ 2,193$ 4,227$ 0.305 8,227$ 4,000$ 2,000$ 2,000$ -$ -$ 2,996$ 8 2023 6.03 27,000 27,000 11,223 417 11,639 0.431 27,000 2,034$ 2,253$ 4,287$ 0.313 8,453$ 4,166$ 2,083$ 2,083$ -$ -$ 3,186$ 9 2024 6.25 27,000 27,000 11,643 428 12,072 0.447 27,000 2,034$ 2,315$ 4,349$ 0.322 8,686$ 4,336$ 2,168$ 2,168$ -$ -$ 3,386$ 10 2025 6.49 27,000 27,000 12,080 440 12,520 0.464 27,000 2,034$ 2,379$ 4,413$ 0.331 8,924$ 4,511$ 2,256$ 2,256$ -$ -$ 3,596$ 11 2026 6.73 27,000 27,000 12,533 452 12,985 0.481 27,000 2,034$ 2,444$ 4,479$ 0.340 9,170$ 4,691$ 2,346$ 2,346$ -$ -$ 3,815$ 12 2027 6.98 27,000 27,000 13,003 465 13,468 0.499 27,000 2,034$ 2,512$ 4,546$ 0.349 9,422$ 4,876$ 2,438$ 2,438$ -$ -$ 4,045$ 13 2028 7.24 27,000 27,000 13,491 477 13,968 0.517 27,000 2,034$ 2,581$ 4,615$ 0.359 9,681$ 5,066$ 2,533$ 2,533$ -$ -$ 4,287$ 14 2029 7.52 27,000 27,000 13,997 490 14,487 0.537 27,000 2,034$ 2,652$ 4,686$ 0.368 9,947$ 5,262$ 2,631$ 2,631$ -$ -$ 4,540$ 15 2030 7.80 27,000 27,000 14,521 504 15,025 0.556 27,000 2,034$ 2,725$ 4,759$ 0.379 10,221$ 5,462$ 2,731$ 2,731$ -$ -$ 4,804$ 16 2031 8.09 27,000 27,000 15,066 518 15,584 0.577 27,000 2,034$ 2,799$ 4,834$ 0.389 10,502$ 5,668$ 2,834$ 2,834$ -$ -$ 5,082$ 17 2032 8.39 27,000 27,000 15,631 532 16,163 0.599 27,000 2,034$ 2,876$ 4,911$ 0.400 10,791$ 5,880$ 2,940$ 2,940$ -$ -$ 5,372$ 18 2033 8.71 27,000 27,000 16,217 547 16,764 0.621 27,000 2,034$ 2,956$ 4,990$ 0.411 11,088$ 6,098$ 3,049$ 3,049$ -$ -$ 5,676$ 19 2034 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 562 17,387 0.644 27,000 2,034$ 3,037$ 5,071$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,322$ 3,161$ 3,161$ -$ -$ 5,994$ 20 2035 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 577 17,402 0.645 27,000 2,034$ 3,120$ 5,155$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,238$ 3,119$ 3,119$ -$ -$ 6,010$ 21 2036 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 593 17,418 0.645 27,000 2,034$ 3,206$ 5,240$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,152$ 3,076$ 3,076$ -$ -$ 6,026$ 22 2037 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 609 17,434 0.646 27,000 2,034$ 3,294$ 5,328$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,064$ 3,032$ 3,032$ -$ -$ 6,042$ 23 2038 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 626 17,451 0.646 27,000 2,034$ 3,385$ 5,419$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,973$ 2,987$ 2,987$ -$ -$ 6,059$ 24 2039 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 643 17,468 0.647 27,000 2,034$ 3,478$ 5,512$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,880$ 2,940$ 2,940$ -$ -$ 6,076$ 25 2040 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 661 17,486 0.648 27,000 2,034$ 3,574$ 5,608$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,785$ 2,892$ 2,892$ -$ -$ 6,094$ 26 2041 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 679 17,504 0.648 27,000 2,034$ 3,672$ 5,706$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,686$ 2,843$ 2,843$ -$ -$ 6,112$ 27 2042 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 698 17,523 0.649 27,000 2,034$ 3,773$ 5,807$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,585$ 2,793$ 2,793$ -$ -$ 6,130$ 28 2043 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 717 17,542 0.650 27,000 2,034$ 3,877$ 5,911$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,482$ 2,741$ 2,741$ -$ -$ 6,150$ 29 2044 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 737 17,562 0.650 27,000 2,034$ 3,983$ 6,017$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,375$ 2,688$ 2,688$ -$ -$ 6,169$ 30 2045 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 757 17,582 0.651 27,000 2,034$ 4,093$ 6,127$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,266$ 2,633$ 2,633$ -$ -$ 6,190$ 31 2046 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 778 17,603 0.652 27,000 -$ 4,205$ 4,205$ 0.422 11,393$ 7,187$ 3,594$ 3,594$ -$ -$ 6,210$ 32 2047 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 799 17,624 0.653 27,000 -$ 4,321$ 4,321$ 0.422 11,393$ 7,072$ 3,536$ 3,536$ -$ -$ 6,232$ 33 2048 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 821 17,646 0.654 27,000 -$ 4,440$ 4,440$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,953$ 3,476$ 3,476$ -$ -$ 6,254$ 34 2049 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 844 17,669 0.654 27,000 -$ 4,562$ 4,562$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,831$ 3,415$ 3,415$ -$ -$ 6,276$ 35 2050 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 867 17,692 0.655 27,000 -$ 4,687$ 4,687$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,705$ 3,353$ 3,353$ -$ -$ 6,300$ 36 2051 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 891 17,716 0.656 27,000 -$ 4,816$ 4,816$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,576$ 3,288$ 3,288$ -$ -$ 6,323$ 37 2052 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 915 17,740 0.657 27,000 -$ 4,949$ 4,949$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,444$ 3,222$ 3,222$ -$ -$ 6,348$ 38 2053 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 940 17,766 0.658 27,000 -$ 5,085$ 5,085$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,308$ 3,154$ 3,154$ -$ -$ 6,373$ 39 2054 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 966 17,791 0.659 27,000 -$ 5,225$ 5,225$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,168$ 3,084$ 3,084$ -$ -$ 6,399$ 40 2055 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 993 17,818 0.660 27,000 -$ 5,368$ 5,368$ 0.422 11,393$ 6,024$ 3,012$ 3,012$ -$ -$ 6,426$ 41 2056 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,020 17,845 0.661 27,000 -$ 5,516$ 5,516$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,877$ 2,938$ 2,938$ -$ -$ 6,453$ 42 2057 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,048 17,873 0.662 27,000 -$ 5,668$ 5,668$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,725$ 2,862$ 2,862$ -$ -$ 6,481$ 43 2058 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,077 17,902 0.663 27,000 -$ 5,823$ 5,823$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,569$ 2,785$ 2,785$ -$ -$ 6,510$ 44 2059 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,107 17,932 0.664 27,000 -$ 5,984$ 5,984$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,409$ 2,704$ 2,704$ -$ -$ 6,539$ 45 2060 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,137 17,962 0.665 27,000 -$ 6,148$ 6,148$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,244$ 2,622$ 2,622$ -$ -$ 6,570$ 46 2061 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,168 17,994 0.666 27,000 -$ 6,317$ 6,317$ 0.422 11,393$ 5,075$ 2,538$ 2,538$ -$ -$ 6,601$ 47 2062 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,201 18,026 0.668 27,000 -$ 6,491$ 6,491$ 0.422 11,393$ 4,902$ 2,451$ 2,451$ -$ -$ 6,633$ 48 2063 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,234 18,059 0.669 27,000 -$ 6,669$ 6,669$ 0.422 11,393$ 4,723$ 2,362$ 2,362$ -$ -$ 6,666$ 49 2064 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,267 18,093 0.670 27,000 -$ 6,853$ 6,853$ 0.422 11,393$ 4,540$ 2,270$ 2,270$ -$ -$ 6,700$ 50 2065 9.04 27,000 27,000 16,825 1,302 18,127 0.671 27,000 -$ 7,041$ 7,041$ 0.422 11,393$ 4,351$ 2,176$ 2,176$ -$ -$ 6,735$ 268,262$ 134,131$ 134,131$ 0 267,310$ General Power Requirement s Reserve Fund Draw West Creek Skagway Total Reserve Fund Balance Cruise Line Savings With West Creek Revenue West CreekGenerationCostYC Year GenerationFuel Cost ($/gal) Year Without West Creek Costs Diesel Page 1 of 1 Average load 7 MW Average hours/day 13.5 hours Total Number of boats served 1 2 3 Average days/week 1 2 4 Generation/week 94.5 378 1134 1,607 MWh/wk Duration of cruise season 17 weeks Total generation 27,311 MWh