Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutRIRPsupportThe Railbelt Regional Integrated Resource Plan (RIRP), completed in February 2010 by Black and Veatch under contract to the Alaska Energy Authority, identified the Glacier Fork Hydroelectric Project as part of the least -cost IRP for the Railbelt. Black and Veatch correctly emphasized that this is the least developed of the various large hydroelectric projects proposed for the railbelt. Accordingly, there is significant uncertainty regarding the feasibility of developing this project. Black and Veatch recommended that the project be studied to determine if it a viable option for the railbelt. The grant funds requested in this application would advance this study process. Pertinent excerpts from the RIRP are attached on the following pages. SECTION I 2. The State should establish certain energy -related policies, including: o The pursuit of large hydroelectric facilities o DSM/EE program targets o RPS (i.e., target for renewable resources), and the pursuit of wind, geothermal, and tidal (which will become commercially mature during the 50-year planning horizon) projects in addition to large hydroelectric projects; the passage of an RPS would be meaningful as a policy statement even though the preferred resource plan would achieve a 50 percent renewable level by 2025, o System benefit charge to fund DSM/EE programs and or renewable projects 3. The State should work closely with the Railbelt utilities and other stakeholders to establish the specific preferred resource plan. In establishing the preferred resource plan, the economic results of the various reference cases and sensitivity cases evaluated in this study should be considered, as well as the environmental impacts discussed in Section 13 and the project -specific risks discussed in Section 14. 4. Black & Veatch believes that the Scenario IA/IB resource plan should be the starting point for the selection of the preferred resource plan as discussed below. Table 1-8 provides a summary of the specific resources that were selected, based upon economics, in the Scenario 1A/1B resource plan during the first 10 years. A project selected in Scenario lA/113 after the first 10 years especially worthy of mention is the Chakachamna Hydroelectric Project in 2025. Another important consideration in the selection of a preferred resource plan is evaluation of the sensitivity cases evaluated, as presented in Section 13. Issues addressed through the sensitivity cases and considered in Black & Veatch's selection of a preferred resource plan include the following and are discussed in Table 1-9. Following that discussion, o What if CO2 regulation doesn't occur? o What is the effect if the committed units are installed? o What if Chakachamna doesn't get developed? o What would be the impact of the alternative Susitna projects? There are several projects that are significantly under development and included in the preferred resource plan. These significantly developed projects include: o Healy Clean Coal Project (HCCP) o Southcentral Power Project o Fire Island Wind Project o Nikiski Wind Project These projects are discussed in Table I-10. In addition to these resources, Black & Veatch believes that Mt. Spurr, Glacier Fork, Chakachamna and Susitna should be pursued further to the point that the uncertainties regarding the environmental, geotechnical and capital cost issues become adequately resolved to determine if any of the projects could actually be built. Black & Vealch 1-34 February 2010 Table 1-8 Resources Selected in Scenario 1A/113 Resource Plan Project Discussion DSM/EE Resources The full level of DSM/EE resources evaluated was selected based upon their relative economics. Sensitivity analysis indicates that even greater levels of DSM/EE may be cost-effective. The lack of Alaska -specific DSM/EE data causes the exact level of cost-effective DSM/EE to remain uncertain. Nikiski Wind The RIRP selected this project in the initial year. It is being developed as an IPP project and is well along in the development process. The ARRA potentially offers significant financial incentives if this project is completed by January 1, 2013. These incentives could further improve its competitiveness. As a wind unit, it has no impact on planning reserves, but contributes to renewable generation. HCCP HCCP is completed and GVEA has negotiated with AIDEA for its purchase. This project was selected in the initial year of the plan. Fire Island Wind Project The Fire Island Wind Project is being developed as an IPP project with proposed power purchase agreements provided to the Railbelt utilities. The project may be able to benefit significantly from ARRA and the $25 million grant from the State for interconnection. This project was selected in 2012. Anchorage 1x1 6FA Combined The RIRP selected this unit for commercial operation in 2013. This unit is very Cycle similar in size and performance to the Southcentral Power Project being developed as a joint ownership project by Chugach and ML&P for 2013 commercial operation. The project appears well under development with the combustion turbines already under contract. The project fits well with the RIRP and the joint ownership at least partially reflects the GRETC joint development concept. Glacier Fork Hydroelectric The RIRP selected this project for commercial operation in 2014, the first year that it Project was available for commercial operation in the models. Of the large hydroelectric projects, Glacier Fork is by far the least developed. Glacier Fork has very limited storage and thus does not offer the system operating flexibility of the other large hydroelectric units. There is also significant uncertainty with respect to its capital cost and ability to be licensed. Because it has such a minimal level of firm generation in the winter, it does not contribute significantly to planning reserves, but does contribute about 6 percent of the renewable energy to the Railbelt. Detailed feasibility studies and licensing are required to advance this option. Anchorage and GVEA MSW The RIRP selected these units in 2015 and 2017. Historically, mass burn MSW units Units such as those modeled, have faced significant opposition due to emissions of mercury, dioxin, and other pollutants. Other technologies which result in lower emissions, such as plasma arc, are not commercially demonstrated. The units included in the RIRP are relatively small (26 MW in total) and are not required to be installed to meet planning reserve requirements, but their base load nature contributes nearly 4 percent of the renewable energy. Detailed feasibility studies would be required to advance this alternative. GVEA North Pole Retrofit The retrofitting of GVEA's North Pole combined cycle unit with a second train using a LM6000 combustion turbine and heat recovery steam generator was selected in 2018 coincident with the assumption of the availability of natural gas to GVEA. The retrofit takes advantage of capital and operating cost savings resulting from the existing installation. Black & Veatch 1-35 February 2010