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HomeMy WebLinkAboutExhibit HKODIAK ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION, INC. Alaska 3 Kodiak TEN YEAR LOAD FORECAST 2009-2018 Prepared by: KODIAK ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION, INC. January 9,, 2009 Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast PREFACE Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. (KEA) serves approximately 3,998 members (5,.823 meters) within the City of Kodiak, United States Coast Guard (U.S.C.G.) Integrated Support Command Kodiak, and the villages of Chiniak/Pasagshak and Port Lions. KEA maintains over 29 miles of transmission line, approximately 230 overhead distribution miles, 130 underground miles and 3 miles of underwater cable. KEA has six substation facilities and a combination of hydro and diesel plant generation facilities with an additional 4.5 MW of wind generation anticipated to come on-line in fall 2009 for a total generating capacity of 58.45 MW. KEA is currently finalizing the acquisition of the Terror Lake hydroelectric facilities previously owned by the Four Dam Pool Power. Association (FDPPA). The transmission and overhead line facilities included in this acquisition are included in the above detailed line miles. Power is dispatched to the community first utilizing all available energy from Terror Lake with diesel generation as secondary and back- up generation for the hydroelectric project. Detailed information on KEA's generation facilities can be found on the next page. KEA began generation and distribution to the cooperative members in August 1942. Since incorporation KEA's Board of Directors have diligently continued to meet the growing energy needs of Kodiak's population and fulfill the Mission Statement: Kodiak Electric Association is committed to providing safe, reliable energy and a high level of service excellence to enhance the quality of life of its members and of the community. Currently, approximately 80% of our annual generation is produced with renewable hydroelectric power. In February 2007 the KEA Board of Directors set a bold direction for KEA to follow when they adopted the following Vision Statement: KEA shall endeavor to produce 95°0 of energy sales with cost effective renewable power solutions by the year 2020. The previous Load Forecast was completed by KEA in November 2006. This study was needed to supplement the Terror Lake Construction Work Plan scheduled for submittal to the Rural Utilities Service (RUS) in 2007. In discussions with Eric A. Marchegiani, PE Public Utility Specialist, RUS General Field Representative, it was determined that a new Load Forecast Study was needed to supplement the 2008- 2011 Construction Work Plan and Ten Year Financial Forecast scheduled for submittal to RUS in 2009. Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast The goals for this Load Forecast are as follows: • Determine, as accurately as practicable, KEA's future requirements for energy and demand. • Provide data for use in the preparation of the Ten Year Financial Forecast to accompany the RUS loan application. The project scope includes review and analysis of historical data from 1999 through 2008. The number of customers and load requirements for each rate class and the total system energy and demand requirements are projected through year 2018. Facility Kodiak Generating Station CapacityKEA Generation Unit DeLaval DSRS-12-3 Installation Date 1976 Capacity 1.8 MW Caterpillar 3616 2005 5 MW Caterpillar 3616 2005 5 MW DeLaval DSRS-16-4 1980 5.8 MW Total 17.6 MW Nyman Power Plant DeLaval DSR-48 1978 2.5 MW Solar Taurus 60-T7301 S, SoLoNOx 1999 6.5 MW Total 9 MW Swampy Acres Plant Fairbanks Morse 38TD-8 1 /8 1968 1.5 MW Fairbanks Morse 38TD-8 1 /8 1968 1.5 MW Caterpillar 3516B 2002 1.8 MW Caterpillar 3516B 2002 1.8 MW Total 6.6 MW Terror Lake Hydroelectric Fuji V 11 RbN Turbine with i su is i Generator 1984 10 MW Fuji VT1R6N Turbine with Mitsubishi Generator 1984 10 MW Total 20 MW Pillar Mountain Wind GE 1.5sle Wind Turbine 2009 1.5 MW GE 1.5sle Wind Turbine 2009 1.5 MW GE 1.5sle Wind Turbine 2009 1.5 MW Total 4.5 MW Port Lions Waukesha 28950 1968 0.24 MW Waukesha 28950 1979 0.24 MW Caterpillar 3406 1970 0.14 MW Caterpillar 343 1970 0.14 MW Total 0.75 MW KEA Generating Capacity Total 58.45 MW Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction..00000 ... ........000000000a......... 0000000.............................. .............................................................. __.............. 1 Data......... 0000............................................... 000 00000a0000000000 00000000o�00000000 0000000000000000000a0000000000000000000000000000000aoo 0000000a...1 Modeling.................. o.0000............ ....... ...... oa o0000000000ao 000.000000°oo000000000000a000aooa0000000000a000000000a000000000000000000000aa00000....... 1-3 ProjectedData ...... °°°.000000000___ ..............0000000 0 ........... 0000000000000°°00000000000000000000000000°0000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000 3 Conclusion0000a0000000000000a0000000o a000000000aoa000000000000aa000000aooao aoa0000a00000000a000a00000°000°0000000000000000°0000000000000a00000000000000000aoao 00..4-5 List of Tables: Table 1— Historical Energy Use and Demands ............ ............0000000 .............. 00000000000000°000000000000000000000000a......000 0000000 Table 2—Projected Energy Use and Demands .0000000..o.........................................000 List of Figures: Figure1— Residential Consumers................................00000......00000°000 000000000000000000000000a000000000000000000 00000000......o......o0000 Figure2 — ResidentW Annual Usage ..00000.............. — ............ ............ 000000a0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000..............9 Figure3 — Commercial Consumers.......................o000000........... 0000000000 0................................................................10 Figure 4 — Commercial Annual Usage .................... o.......... ...... 0........ 0.......... __.......................... .......................... 11 Figure 5 — Large Power Consumers........00000......o0000000000............. ....000000000......00000000........ 00000000000 oo.............. __.... — 12 Figure 6 — Large Power Annual Usage ............ .0000............o.......... 000...........................000000000......o000000a00000........ al 21) Figure7— Public Lighting ... 000.............°000.................°000 000000000 0 000000 000 000°°0000000000000000000a000a000000000000a000000a00000000a00000aoaj Figure8—Own Use ........ ............................ o...... 00000000aaoa000aoo 00000°00000000000000000oo°000000000000000000000000000000a000 000000aaaoa0000000o i�s Figure9 —Annual System MWH.....................000000000000000000000000 o 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000............16 Figure10 —Peak System Demand 0000.............................................................. 0°000000000000........0000a0000000 ............0...17 ExhibitA— RevenueSummariesfrom 1999through 2008.........__ ............... ................0000.__............... oo--18-27 Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast INTRODUCTION This Load Forecast presents an analysis of KEA's historical loads and forecasts for future power requirements for each customer class. The Load Forecast assumes a normal or average level of economic activity for the next ten years based upon the historical trend in growth. The following are forecasted in this report: 1. Number of residential, small commercial and large power customers. 2. Annual energy use for each customer class. 3. Annual system own use. 4. Annual system energy losses. 5. Annual system energy requirements. 6. Annual system load factor. 7. Annual system coincident peak MW demand. DATA Historical data is readily available from audited, year end RUS Form Ts. The information utilized in the forecast is broken down by customer class of service for ease of use. The RUS Form 7 categories do not directly correspond with KEA's rate classes. The Revenue Summary information for historical years is attached for reference and corresponds directly to the year end Form 7 total information. Table 1 on page 6 lists historical data for years 1999 through 2008. MODELING A simple regression analysis uses historical data and develops a "best fit" mathematical equation relating dependent information to independent information. For example, in a simple regression model, the number of residential customers (dependent variable) may be related to time in years (independent variable). Once the mathematical equation is established, projections of future values can be calculated. 1 Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast Figures 1 through 10 show the results of this regression analysis for each customer class of service, public lighting, own use, total energy required and system demand. For the commercial class of service, an 8-year history was used for the projections. The 8-year history for this class of service provided a best fit curve and yields a slightly higher projection for the number of future customers and kWh usage. KEA's historical data for 1999 and 2000 reflect the boat harbor accounts which are now served by the City of Kodiak. All other projects are based on a full 10 years of historical data. Based upon our interviews with the U.S.C.G. and the seafood processors, future conditions may be slightly more favorable than our 10 year history reflects. However, total sales for 2008 reflect a 1.37% decline from 2007 total sales. The residential sales show a slight increase in annual usage but the average kWh per consumer per month remained constant at 589 kWh. Commercial and large power sales for 2008 indicate a significant decline from 2007. The following table provides historical usage for the past seven (7) years on KEA's top customers. The customer ranking is based on 2008 usage. KEA TOP CUSTOMERS BASED ON KWH - 7 YEAR HISTORY # NAME 2008 kWh 2007 kWh 2006 kWh 2005 kWh 2004 kWh 2003 kWh 2002 kWh 1 U. S. Coast Guard 22,706,759 22,840,802 23,991,845 23,628,814 23,984,224 25,155,844 24,875,190 2 Kodiak City 7,850,091 7,679,027 8,443,259 7,858,059 7,787,863 7,467,313 7,364,963 3 Trident Seafoods 7,202,424 6,726,432 6,284,640 6,035,647 5,416,326 5,760,240 5,053,680 4 King Crab Co, Inc. 5,459,152 5,849, 055 5,572, 903 4,761,749 4,594,061 4,109,212 3,081,598 5 Alaska Pacific Seafoods 5,440,584 5,708,504 4,673,056 4,532,584 4,257,504 4,249,528 3,411,608 6 International Seafoods, Inc. 4,919,091 5,945,818 5,389,068 4,975,048 3,545,884 1,640,103 4,368,450 7 Western Alaska Fisheries 4,878,041 5,463,536 5,476,125 5,017,806 4,588,815 4,105,236 4,149,234 8 Kodiak Schools 4,378,689 4,323,307 4,401,307 4,334,027 4,313,097 4,345,872 4,412,802 9 Ak Aerospace, Inc. 4,373,520 4,731,600 4,063,440 3,061,680 3,539,040 1,404,480 1,632,000 10 Safeway Stores, Inc. 3,379,534 3,319,318 3,301,598 3,314,002 3,300,474 3,317,746 3,391,048 11 Global Seafoods 2,733,000 2,716,500 3,461,500 2,955,836 2,658,240 1,526,976 457,344 12 Kodiak Fishmeal Co. 2,598,000 2,591,000 2,824,400 2,722,800 2,523,600 2,476,800 2,349,600 13 Kodiak Island Hospital 2,275,484 1,986,919 1,821,427 1,822,400 1,836,956 1,784,107 1,774,602 14 Horizon Lines, LLC 1,743,531 1,854, 332 1,812, 948 1,552, 484 1,195,724 1,159,604 988,724 15 Kodiak Island Borough 1,691,583 1,704,494 1,753,182 1,821,168 1,807,689 1,746,783 1,704,962 16 John B. Whiddon 1,160,299 1,058,815 915,885 822,482 624,617 318,489 274,344 17 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 1,137,168 1,177,344 1,200,960 1,258,416 1,141,344 1,358,064 1,520,352 18 Alaska Commercial Co. 988,996 1,084,494 1,146,906 1,168,886 1,194,894 1,322,376 1,309,706 19 Brechan Enterprises, Inc. 956,051 555,560 499,025 797,972 726,719 1,159,604 1,264,822 20 Alaska, State of 875,120 819,619 794,536 763,683 783,801 799,303 821,810 21 Alaska Fresh Seafoods 862,650 1,071,150 1,020,234 1,096,128 998,400 1,129,536 1,067,904 87,609,767 89,207,626 88,848,244 84,301,671 80,819,272 76,337,216 75,274,743 2 Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast The 2008 sales for the top customers indicate a 1.82% decline in sales from 2007. All other years show an overall usage increase. Figure 4 — illustrates the commercial usage in 2005 reflects a 5% decline in consumption from the commercial usage in 2004. It should be noted, that this variation in usage reflects commercial services that transferred to the large power rate. (See Figure 6 — Large Power Usage). KEA's large power rate is based on actual usage over 50 kW, not installed capacity. Therefore, processors will move from one rate to another based on their specific power needs. KEA has not experienced any loss in customer base, the usage only transferred from the commercial rate to the large power rate in 2005. PROJECTED DATA Table 2 on page 6 lists projected values for energy and demand for years 2009 through 2018. KEA has historically experienced a small annual growth in the number of residential services. The residential services historically show a slight increase in usage each year. However, 2008 average usage is consistent with 2007's. According to the U.S.C.G. additional families will be deployed to U.S.C.G. Integrated Support Command Kodiak within the next ten years. This information supports our projected growth in residential services. The value used for Annual MWh Generation and Purchases is the total projected sales, own use and line loss. Figure 10 has been included for comparison of the projected annual MWh and the total calculated from the projected sales, own use and line loss that is being utilized in this forecast. Percent system losses are estimated to be approximately 4% per year. The past ten years of historical data on line losses shows a dramatic fluctuation in 2004 and 2005 line losses recorded. This extreme variation recorded in 2004 and 2005 has mostly to do with accounting changes. The billing department converted to cycle billing during this two year period. KEA's billing cycles encompass two calendar periods and therefore do not correspond with the purchases and generation which are computed on a calendar month. KEA has historically been a winter peaking system. However, based on changes within the fishing industry we may see more seasonal variations in load. Our first summer peak was experienced in August 2005 due to a very large volume of seafood landings. 3 Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast CONCLUSION This Load Forecast determines KEA's future requirements for energy and demand. The residential and commercial class customer growth closely follows an established historic trend. The annual energy usage of the large power consumers, and subsequently the energy usage of the entire system as a whole, is largely dependent on the fishing industry and thus more variable. Seafood processing is approximately 25% of KEA's electric consumption. The President/CEO and Manager of Operations and Engineering have conducted interviews with the following processors: • Trident Seafoods • King Crab Co., Inc. (Ocean Beauty) • Alaska Pacific Seafoods • International Seafoods, Inc. • Western Alaska Fisheries • Island Seafoods (John B. Whiddon) The majority of the processors indicated that their corporate vision was to expand. The overall vision was to increase "value added" fish processing; which could mean more freezing capacity. The processors also indicated they aim to increase the quantity of processing by moving more fish processing into Kodiak from other areas. The final vision was to increase processing at their specific plant by being more competitive than the neighboring facility within Kodiak. These corporate visions could add load to our community in the future and/or just redistribute the current load within the processing plants. We anticipate load growth within the commercial and large power segment. However, the constant changes in fishery management policies could adversely affect the seafood -processing sector in the future. All indications from the processors indicate that the projections based on the historical consumption will accurately depict KEA's future needs. The U.S.C.G. is KEA's number one consumer and utilizes approximately 20% of KEA's electric consumption. Commander Tony Stobbe indicates that the installation of various energy efficient products should slow down the growth in usage by the USCG. However, over the next few years no big changes are anticipated. According to Commander Stobbe there is potential for some electrical load growth in the future from the following two areas. 4 Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. Ten Year Load Forecast • Two security class cutters are scheduled into Kodiak in 2017 or 2018. These two cutters will bring many more families onto the island and will need shore power when they are docked at Kodiak. It is undetermined what the amount of load will be but it is estimated at 3-4 MW's. The security class cutters are not scheduled into Kodiak until the end of this load forecast and have therefore not been considered in the load projections. • There is also a concept that the U.S.C.G. vehicles may switch to electric. This is currently only a concept so no estimate is provided. No large scale subdivisions are anticipated within the next 10 years, nor are any large commercial ventures planned by the local sector. When electricity is viewed in our community as the more prevalent source of energy the cooperative has a potential for load growth from electric heat sales and electric cars. Overall, the community has embraced the cooperative's message on energy efficiency and is installing and implementing energy efficient methods and products. Projected values for number of customers and energy usage per rate class from this Load Forecast will be used in the in 10-year financial forecast to account for system growth. 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