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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAppendix 4Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association 2007 Update Prepared for: Valdez Fisheries Development Association PREPARED BY: I I'' McDowell G R d U P Juneau -Anchorage* Kodiak February 2008 a� Table of Contents Summaryof Findings..............................................................................................................1 CommercialHarvesting..................... ................ __...... ...................................................................... 1 Processing..........................................................................................................................................1 RecreationalFishing... .......... .............................................................................................................. I Tax Revenues ....... ....................... ....................................................................................................,... Z TotalImpact ....................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction............................................................................................................................ 3 Methodology.................................................................................,.......................................3 Overview of the VFDA Organization......................................................................................5 Value -Added Processing Infrastructure ................................... ___ ........................................... ...........S SalmonMarket Ovetview.......................................................................................................7 Production& Price Trends ........ .......................................... ....................................................7 PinkSalmon.., _ . . ........................ _ .......................... 7 CohoSalmon.................................................................................................................................... 7 RecentDevelopments..........................................._.._......................_................................_......8 CannedPink .......... ................................. ............................ .__................................................ 8 FrozenPink ................................ ___ ..............................................................................,..................8 Coho 8 ............................................................................................................................................... Commercial Harvest of VFDA Salmon..................................................................................10 Commercial Harvest and Ex -Vessel Value..............................................................................10 Geographic Distribution of Value from VFDA Commercial Harvest........................................1 Z Regional Economic impact of VFDA Commercial Salmon Harvest......................................................12 Commercial Processing of VFDA Salmon.............................................................................14 RecreationalFishing..............................................................................................................16 Fisheries Business and Salmon Enhancement Tax................................................................19 EconomicImpact.........................................,........................................................................20 Erawmk Impacts of Valdez F,sheries Development Association: 2007 Update McDowell Group, Iric. ■ Page i Summary of Findings The Valdez Fisheries Development Association (VFDA) operates a salmon enhancement hatchery and other fisheries infrastructure in Valdez, Alaska. Commercial and sport harvesters, commercial seafood processors, and the regional economy all benefit from the fishery activities. This report examines the commercial, sport, and organizational activities and impacts of VFDA. The research resulted in the following key findings: Commercial Harvesting ■ The commercial harvest of VFDA salmon totaled 276 million pounds from 2000 to 2007. The 2007 harvest was the largest, at 66 million pounds. ■ Commercial fishermen earned $36 million harvesting VFDA fish in the common property fishery from 2000 to 2007. This includes $10.9 million in 2007. This is double the 2000 earnings of $5.5 million. ■ Earnings in 2007 far -outpaced those in any of the preceding years, due to record volumes and significant ex -vessel prices increases in recent years. ■ Participation in the VFDA harvest includes residents of communities in Prince William Sound, the Kenai Peninsula Borough, and the Anchorage and Matanuska-Susitna regions, as well as non -Alaska - resident harvesters. Alaska resident permit holders earned $8.3 million in ex -vessel value harvesting VFDA fish in 2007. This compares to $3.8 million in 2000. ■ The total estimated output from harvesting activities was $16 million in 2007. This is more than double the 2000 output of $7.1 million. Processing The estimated first wholesale value of VFDA-origin salmon in 2007 was $70.9 million, 130 percent over the 2006 season, and more than a threefold increase over 2000. This includes fish harvested in common property and cost recovery fisheries. ■ The estimated first wholesale value of VFDA-origin salmon in 2007 included $69.8 million in value for pink salmon products and $ 1.0 million for coha products. ■ In 2007, pink and coha roe products accounted for an estimated 32 percent of the first wholesale value of VFDA fish, but only 9 percent of total volume. ■ The total estimated output from processing activities was $85 million in 2007. Recreational Fishing ■ From 2000 to 2007, more than 705,000 VFDA coh❑ salmon were harvested in sport fisheries. More than 380,000 pink salmon were taken during the same period. Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association. 2007 I/pdare MrDawell Group, hTc. ■ Page I • The coho harvest contributes anywhere from 45 to 75 percent of the VFDA-origin sport fish annually, depending on the year. Tax Revenues • in total, from 2000 to 2007, an estimated $1.8 million in taxes were generated by VFDA salmon production. These included the Fisheries Business Tax (3%) and the Salmon Enhancement Tax (2%). Taxes are levied ❑n the ex -vessel value of the harvest, and fluctuate with annual values. ■ Half of fisheries business tax receipts are redistributed to communities where the fish were landed, while the other half remains with State government. Total Impact • The total economic impact of VFDA operations, including direct and indirect impacts related to commercial harvesting and direct and indirect impacts related to fish processing, was $100 million in total output and $20 million in labor income in 2007, This compares to $34.7 million in ❑utput in 2000. Economic Irripocts of volder Fishenes Development Associarion. 2007 Update McDowell Group, lric. ■ Page 2 Introduction The Valdez Fisheries Development Association conducts fishery enhancement, seafood processing, and other seafood industry development projects in Valdez, Alaska, and the surrounding region. The fish produced by VFDA, paired with some of the organization's infrastructure investments, provide the basis for economic activity in the regional economy. The pink and coho salmon produced at VFDA are harvested by commercial and sport fishermen alike. The volumes of salmon harvested commercially are processed at shore-hased and floating processors in Valdez, as well as elsewhere in Prince William Sound, and even other regions of Alaska. VFDA has contracted with the McDowell Group For an analysis of the economic impact of the organization's activities. This report is an update to an earlier analysis, Economic impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association, conducted by the McDowell Group in 2002. The analysis presented here updates the earlier report and provides information an the activities of VFDA over the last half -decade. Methodology The analysis of the Economic Impact of the Valdez Fisheries Development Association relies on data from multiple departments in state government, and VFDA. An overview of the methodological approach for different sections of the report is outlined below. Commercial l-Iarvest Data on the number of VFDA salmon harvested in commercial fisheries comes from annual statewide salmon enhancement reports published by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) and is based on annual reporting by VFDA For 2007, VFDA provided the draft data directly to the McDowell Group. As a result, 2007 harvest data should be considered preliminary. The number of salmon harvested is used as a basis for a volume estimate. Annual average per -fish weights by species for Prince William Sound are combined with the harvest counts to estimate the total harvest volume, For 2000 to 2006, the per -fish weights are based on numbers published in the ADF&G Annual Management Report for the salmon fisheries in Prince William Sound. For 2007, the average weight is based on the preliminary ADF,&G 2007 Alaska Salmon Harvests and Ex -vessel Values, retrieved from the department's web site on Dec. 15, 2007 (http=lf wvvw.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/geninfo/finfish/salmon/cal.chval/blusheet/07exvesi.php), Geogra h►r� c Distribution of flarve inn Bg fits The Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission (CFEC) provides information on the city of residence and earnings of permit holders in Prince William Sound's (Area E) salmon fisheries. VFDA production is compared to data for the total Area E harvest. Estimates are made as to the percentage of the total value of Area E salmon that are attributable to VFDA production. Because VFDA fish are primarily harvested by the seine fleet, only seine (permit S01 E) data are considered. Fcomrr)ic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association; 2007 Update McDowell Group Inc. • Page 3 Pr9cessing of Commercial Fish Data on the first wholesale value of salmon is taken from the Alaska Salmon Price Report (ASPR), produced by the Alaska Department of Revenue. The ASPR provides information on processed volumes and first wholesale prices, regionally, for Alaska's commercial salmon fisheries. First wholesale value is the value received by the primary processor when product is sold out of the processor's own network. ASPR data is only available for processors who processed more than I million pounds of product in a given year. As a result, some smaller Prince William Sound area processors are excluded from this data, including VFDA itself. It is assumed that the wholesale pricing for these smaller firms is consistent with the larger companies captured in the ASPR. In combination with data on commercial harvest volumes from ADF&G, the data from the ASPR was used to estimate recovery rates, product form mix (the percentage of the total volume processed into cans, fillets, roe, and other forms), and resulting first wholesale value. Whenever possible, ASPR data for Prince William Sound was used as a basis for the VFDA estimates. When confidentiality restrictions limited the availability of data for Prince William Sound, regional aggregates were used as a proxy. (Confidentiality rules require that three or more processors be reporting in any given category before data can be released. So, for example, if only two processors report production of coho fillets in Prince William Sound, data would be drawn from the next largest aggregate that included Prince William Sound.) Regional first wholesale value data, including product mix and recovery rates, were applied to VFDA harvest volumes to estimate the total first wholesale value of the VFDA-origin salmon. Recreational Harvest Data on the sport harvest is also drawn from the annual statewide salmon enhancement reports from ADF&G. The number of salmon is provided by species. Data from the McDowell Group's original Economic Impacts of the Valdez Fisheries Development Association, which addresses impacts in the 2000 fishing season, are used as comparative points throughout this report. Economic Impocts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association; 2007 Update McDowell Group, Inc. ■ Page 4 Overview of the VFDA organization The Valdez Fisheries Development Association is a non-profit organization in Valdez that works to develop fisheries and fisheries -related development opportunities in the Eastern District of Prince William Sound. The organization was formed in 1978 by a group of commercial fishermen. It has a seven -member board of directors, consisting of two active seiners, two retired commercial fishermen, one sport fish harvester, one tour operator, and one citizen at large. VFDA is an independent hatchery, meaning it does not receive revenue from the salmon enhancement tax levied by the State of Alaska. VFDA's funding comes primarily from cost -recovery harvests from its pink and coho salmon hatchery production. The organization also receives some funding from grants and other contract sources. In recent years, VFDA has moved toward value-added processing of a portion of its cost - recovery harvest, thereby increasing the value of the fish to the organization. That increase in value has been supporting increased investment and development by VFDA, though in time it may allow for a reduction in the cost recovery harvest volume. VFDA collects eggs from pink and coho salmon, and raises them to the fry stage in their Solomon Gulch Hatchery facility. The organization releases between 200 million and 220 million pink salmon fry annually, and 1.5 million coho fry. The fish are harvested in commercial and sport fisheries, with the majority of the harvest of VFDA's fish occurring in the vicinity of the Valdez Arm. 1n 2007, VFDA had an annual average of 27 jobs, with a peak of 78 jobs in September, and an average of 53 during the third-quarter, which includes the height of the salmon season. The employees included processing workers at the value -adding facility (see below), as well as hatchery technical and biological employees, and administrative staff. The total VFDA budget for fiscal year 20Q7, which ended May 31, 2007, was $3.4 million, That included $1.3 million in salaries, benefits and related payroll costs, $317,000 in cost recovery contracts, interest on loans paid to the State of Alaska, fish feed, and other operational overhead and expenses. Much of the organizational budget was spent within Alaska. The entire payroll of S923,000 went to employees in Valdez. Value -Added Processing Infrastructure In 2003, VFDA began construction of a state-of-the-art value-added processing center near the Salomon Gulch Hatchery. The project was funded in part by an Economic Development Administration grant, as part of VFDA's Fisheries Business Incubator investment Program. The business incubator concept provides opportunity for small businesses to begin ❑perations without bearing the entire burden of overhead and capital costs. After a time, start-ups are expected to "graduate" to a level of greater self-sufficiency. The plant was intended to provide processing infrastructure for use by independent harvesters. The plant's processing equipment includes heading and gutting (H&G) equipment, fillet machines, a smoker, blast freezer tunnels, packaging equipment, and other items. At the time of development, it was expected the facility would provide processing and direct marketing opportunity for longline fishermen, for whom no traditional market had been available in the first three months of the longline season. Economic Impacts of Voldez Fisheries Deveiopment Association: 2007 Update McDowell Group, Inc. • page 5 Presently, VFDA is the primary user of the facility. In the Same year the facility was completed, a Commercial seafood processor extended its buying season for longline halibut and sablefish in Valdez, providing longline fishermen with an efficient market for their product. VFDA has used the processing center to conduct innovative value-added processing of salmon products, increasing the value of its cost -recovery fish. VFDA has developed processing techniques and markets for numerous value-added salmon products, including smoked coho fillets and ikura-style salmon caviar from both pink and coho roe. Lower quality salmon carcasses are used, among other things, in the production of "Yummy Chummies" salmon -based pet treats. VFDA is currently pursuing the development of a 30 million -pound cold storage facility to complement the processing infrastructure and serve as a centralized cold -storage location for other food producers on the Alaska road system. The facility, as scoped, would have a temperature range of -40"F to 75'F in several separate modules. In addition to seafood, the cold -storage facility might be used for storage of seed potatoes or frozen vegetables produced in the Interior, before shipment to non -Alaska markets. The building would also have processing space to allow for value-added processing of the stored food products. Economic Impmts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association: 2007 Update McDowell Group, Inc. 0 Page 6 Salmon Market overview Production & Price Trends Pink Salmon Alaska pink salmon values have improved substantially in recent years, driven largely by strong demand for frozen pinks and a related product -form shift in Alaska, from canned to frozen. The chronic surplus of canned pink was a key factor in low pink salmon values early in this decade. Canned pink has a shelf life of several years and with the series of record and near -record pink harvests throughout the ten years, unsold inventory soon bridged the low years in the two-year abundance cycle, keeping the canned pink market in a constant state of oversupply. Ex -vessel and first wholesale value of Alaska pinks bottomed out during 2002-2004. Ex -vessel prices were 9- 10 cents per pound, while average first wholesale prices for headed and gutted (H&G) frozen pinks remained below 55 cents per pound and average 48-tall wholesale case prices remained in the S34-$38 range. Values began to improve in 2005 as demand for frozen pinks grew and the product -form Shift from canned to frozen accelerated. Through 2002, the canned product -form share for Alaska pink salmon was in the 75-80 percent range. That share of production declined to 63-64 percent in 2003 and 2004, and by 2005 was down to 56 percent. For 2007, product -form share of tanned pink statewide is estimated at 50 percent. This progression and associated price changes were accelerated by the unusually low Alaska pink harvest of 72 million fish in 2006. Wholesale values for the major pink salmon products recovered, with frozen H&G prices rising to the 75-80 cent range and 48-tall case prices rebounding from the low point of $34 to $57 per case. Ex -vessel pink prices increased to 16 cents per pound in 2006 and preliminary statewide average prices for the 2007 season is 17 tents per pound. This product -form shift has two important implications for Alaska pink salmon markets. One, it reflects a major increase in the demand for primary -processed (mostly H&G frozen) product to supply secondary processors in low-cost labor markets like China. This is consistent with global food industry trends and is unlikely to change in the near future. Second, the shift has reduced the supply of raw material available far canning and essentially "dried up" the longstanding cumulative surplus of canned pinks. Colho Salmon The product -form mix of coho has changed to some extent in recent years, though not as dramatically as that seen in pink salmon. Most recently, approximately 55 percent goes to Frozen H&G, 20 percent to fresh H&G, and 20 percent to fillet products, with a small percentage canned. First wholesale value of most coho products has increased steadily since 2003. For example, frozen H&G coho increased from $1.40 per pound in 2003 to $2.35 in 2006. Similarly, the wholesale value of frozen coho fillets jumped from S2.70 to $4.20 between 2003 and 2006. Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association: 2007 Update McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 7 While these increases reflect the general trend of increasing wild salmon values, coho products show much stronger value growth than sockeye. This may be due in part to the high percentage of coho caught in low volume fisheries that generate high -quality products that can capitalize on the strong demand for top -end wild salmon. In 2007, over 60 percent of the statewide coho harvest was caught in Southeast Alaska and Prince William Sound, by trailers and gillnetters. Recent Developments Canned Fink Canned pink sales volume dropped sharply in the 2006 sales season (September 2006 through August 2007), totaling a 1,990,000 48-tall case equivalent. This is 1.2 million cases (38 percent) below the five-year average sales volume of 3,2 million cases. The sharp decline in sales volume was driven partly by supply (September 2006 inventory was only 2.4 million cases) but also by a substantial recovery in wholesale price. Average 48-tall case prices were in the $57 range from January to August, a 14-year high point, The canned pink market is price sensitive and the strong prices of the 2006 sales season dampened safes volume. This is reflected in wholesale Case volumes and in U.S. retail sales activity. Average canned pink retail price briefly exceeded $2 per can in July and August, for the first time since 1993. However, sales volume dropped considerably, from the 10-year July/August average of 14 5, 000 cases to just 89,000 cases during July and August 2007. (Source: AC Nielsen) Frozen Pink After three years of substantial growth, first wholesale value of H&G frozen pink salmon appears to have leveled off in 2007. Annual average wholesale price for frozen pinks increased from 41 cents per pound in 2003 to 82 cents in 2006. Through the first eight months of 2007, average price declined slightly, to 75 cents per pound. It is likely that the unexpected harvest shortfall of 2006 (only 72 million pinks) drove up prices on account of scarcity. While wholesale price is 10 percent lower so far in 2007, it should be noted that the Alaska pink harvest was twice as large in 2007 (144 million) and that the September -December sales period (data not yet available) typically accounts for 40 percent of annual sales volume of frozen H&G pinks. Considering the major increase in pink salmon harvest and production compared to the relatively minor decrease in price, demand for frozen pink salmon appears quite strong. Coho The 2007 Alaska coho harvest of 3.6 million fish marks a third consecutive year of decline in statewide coho production and is one of only two seasons in the last twenty years when the Alaska coho catch has fallen below 4 million fish. Economic impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association: 2007 update McDowell Group, Inc. ■ Page 8 This may became an issue with respect to market position of Alaska coho. The [oho harvest has been significantly below projection in 3 of the last 5 years, including 2006 and 2007. The market has responded with strong prices, competing for the available fish. But with the more conspicuous shortfall of coho in 2007, there is potential that buyers may seek a replacement product rather than continue bidding up the price for an apparently declining supply of coho, Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association. 2007 Update McDowell Croup, Inc. ■ Page 9 Commercial Harvest of VFDA Salmon Commercial Harvest and Ex -Vessel Value Differentiation is made between VFDA salmon harvested in cost recovery fisheries and those harvested in common property fisheries. Cost recovery fisheries are conducted by contract vessels, on behalf of VFDA. The revenues from the sale of the cost recovery fish is an important input to VFDA's annual operating budget. The cost recovery goals must be met in order for the hatchery to remain financial solvent, Typically, cost recovery fisheries are conducted close to the hatchery release point, when fish are aggregating near their natal body of water. During the cost recovery harvest, these areas will be closed to general fishing, until fishery managers and hatchery staff are confident that the hatchery will meet its cost recovery goals. Once cost recovery goals are assured, the general commercial fleet is allowed to target the remainder of the returning hatchery fish. These fish are considered the "common property" of the harvesters, and are tracked as part of the normal catch of the commercial fleet. Generally, the common property harvest represents the hatchery's contribution to the harvest and value of the commercial fishery. The commercial harvest of VFDA salmon totaled 276 million pounds from 2000 to 2007. The 2007 harvest was the largest, at 66 million pounds. It is noteworthy that in 2001, the harvest of VFDA salmon was then an all-time record. Since then, there have been three years with even larger harvests. By contrast, the return in 2002 was very low. With poor prices in that year, nearly all the return had to be harvested by VFDA for cost recovery purposes, and only a small amount was available to the common property fishery. Figure 1 Volume of Common Property Commercial Harvest of VFDA Salmon 2000-2007 MO 60.0 v 50,0 c 7 Q 40.t) Q 30.0 20.0 l o.o ❑.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: ADF&C Salmon Enhancement Annual Reports and VFDA. Harvest of VFDA fish is almost exclusively by the seine fleet, prosecuting the fishery in the Eastern District of Prince William Sound. Pinsk salmon account, on average, for 95 percent of the total harvest. Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Associarian. 2007 Updare MCDnwweff Group, Inc. • Page 10 Figure 2 Commercial Harvest Volume of VFDA Salmon by Species, 2000-2007 Average Pink 95% s Coho 5Ora Source: McDowell Group estimates, based on ADf&G Annual Management Reports and effort and value reports. Commercial fishermen earned $35 million harvesting VFDA fish in the common property fishery from 2000 to 2007. This includes $10.9 million in 2007, twice the total of $5.5 million in 2000. The majority of VFDA fish taken in the commercial harvest are pinks. Earnings in 2007 far -outpaced those in any of the preceding years, including the previous record harvest years of 2003 and 2005. This primarily is due to significant ex -vessel price increases in recent years. For example, in 2003, when 44 million pounds of pinks were harvested, the ex -vessel price was half that of 2007. The combination of higher prices and record run size combined to make 2007 a particularly valuable year to commercial harvesters. Figure 3 Ex -Vessel Common Property Commercial Harvest Value of VFDA Salmon, 2000 2007 $12.0 $10.0 o $6,0 E $2.0 S0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: McDowell Group estimates, based on ADF&G Annual Management Reports and effort and value reports. In all, fishermen averaged $4.8 million per year from VFDA fish from 2000 to 2007. Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Devefnpmenr Association: 2007 Update McDowell Group, Inc. • Page I I Geographic Distribution of Value from VFDA Commercial Harvest AlasU residents are the primary holders of Prince William Sound seiner perttalts and, as such, the primary commercial beneficiaries of VFDA salmon production. In 2006, the most recent year for which community - level participation data is available, an estimated 76 percent of the common property harvest of VFDA fish went to Alaska resident fishermen, for a total value of approximately S2.2 million.' Harvesters from 12 Alaska communities participated. Table 1 Geographic Distribution of Ex -Vessel Value by Alaska Permit Holders, VFDA Common Property Harvest, 2006-2007 Cordova $770,000 $2,694,000 Homer 583,000 2,039,000 Valdez 249,000 871,000 Girdwood 249,000 871,000 Anchorage 96,000 336,000 Kasilof 48,000 168,000 Seward 48,000 168,000 Chugiak 24,000 84,000 Anchor Point 24,000 84,000 Kenai 24,000 84,000 Soldotna 24,000 84,000 Wasilla 24,000 84,000 Grand Total $2,160,000 7,556,106 Source: McDowell Group estimates, based an CFEC data. The VFDA salmon return in 2007 was significantly higher than in 2006. Assuming comparable participation levels and prices, harvesters would have experienced an average increase of approximately 3.5 times their 2006 earnings. Regional Economic Impact of VFDA Commercial Salmon Harvest Participation by Alaskans in the VFDA harvest in 2006 included residents of communities in Prince William Sound, the Kenai Peninsula Borough, and the Anchorage and Matanuska-Susitna regions. This is consistent with recent years' participation trends, though Prince William Sound seine permits are held by residents of a total of 19 Alaska communities, including Kodiak, Dutch Harbor, North Pole and Petersburg. ' Community -level ex -vessel value estimates are based on Prince William Sound (PWS) ex -vessel eaming data, by community of residence. This data is provided by the Alaska Commercial Fisheries En" Cvmmksion (CFEC). Earnings from VFDA fish harvests are assumed to correspond with overall eamings in PWS Fisheries. Ex -vessel value estimates by the CFEC are lower than those based on ADF&G Annual Salmon Enhancement Reports, and may reflect differences in reported prices, regional variation in earnings, or other differences. Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association; 2007 update McDowell Group, Inc. • Page t 2 ■ Fishermen from Cordova, one of a handful of communities in the Valdez -Cordova Census Area, consistently land the greatest portion of VFDA fish. In 2006, the ex -vessel value of their catch was approximately $,770,000. The 2007 harvest value for Cordova fishermen is estimated at $2.7 million. ■ Fishermen from Valdez, the other major port in the Valdez -Cordova Census Area, harvested VFDA fish in 2006 worth approximately S249,000. The 2007 harvest value for Valdez fishermen is estimated at $871,000. ■ Fishermen from Homer are also significant participants in the VFDA fishery. Their harvest in 2006 had an ex -vessel value of approximately $583,000. In 2007, Homer fishermen harvested an estimated S2,0 million worth of VFDA fish.. ■ Fishermen from the Anchorage Municipality, including Anchorage, Chugiak and Girdwood, earned a total of S369,000. In 2007, the estimated ex -vessel value of their harvest was S1.3 million. • Fishermen from Kenai Peninsula Borough communities other than Homer earned $168,000 in 2006, and an estimated $588,000 in 2007. ■ Fishermen from Wasilla earned an estimated $24,000 in 2006 and $84,000 in 2007. Table 2 VFDA Economic Impacts from the Harvesting Sector, 2007 (millions of dollars) Economic Labor OutputIncome Alaska Resident 58.3 $ 13.0 $6.5 Non -Alaska Resident 2.6 3.0 1.5 Total $10.9 $16.0 $8.0 Economic Impacts of Votdez Fisheries Development Associorion: 2007 Update McDowell Group, W. ■ Page 13 Commercial Processing of VFDA Salmon Salmon from VFDA's Commercial harvest is processed throughout Southcentral Alaska. As with many of the state's high -volume salmon fisheries, product is moved throughout the region in times of peak harvest to take advantage of available processing capacity in various ports. For example, fish harvested in the Valdez area fisheries are brought to Kodiak and Seward, as well as plants in Prince William Sound. The impact of the processing activity is felt in all the processing communities. The wholesale value of this product (i.e., the value of the product at the initial sale to a buyer outside the processor's affiliate network), provides an indicator of the magnitude of this impact. The majority of fish from the region are processed in the Valdez -Cordova Census Area, with some additional important processing activity in Seward. Depending on run strength, processing capacity, and the size of returns elsewhere in Alaska, processing of fish from the Valdez area can also be redirected to other communities in the Southcentral region, or even farther away. For example, according to the VFDA general manager, one processing company with a shore -based processing plant in Valdez redirected some fish in the summer of 2007 to a processing facility in Southeast. The first wholesale value of the fishery is an important metric for the fishery's overall value because, assuming profitable processing operations, it should cover all the costs of the seafood production. These include the cost of purchasing the raw material (or the ex -vessel value, paid to fishermen), supplying the labor (the processing workforce), providing packaging and processing materials (such as cans, boxes, labels, or other inputs), power costs, and other production inputs. These should all be accounted for in this final value, along with any processor profits. First wholesale value also captures the value of fish in cost recovery harvests. Though these fish do not contribute directly to the ex -vessel value of the fishery, as paid to harvesters, they do pass through the standard processing channels and become part of the total pack of salmon from the region. Wholesale data specific to VFDA's production is not available. However, using information on wholesale values for product produced in Prince William Sound, in combination with the known volumes of 2007 commercial harvest of VFDA-origin salmon, we are able to estimate the wholesale value of the hatchery product. Wholesale value information for 2007 is not yet available, so 2006 values are used as a reasonable proxy. Though the value of Alaska salmon products has increased markedly in recent years, the majority of that value increase was realized prior to the 2007 season. The estimated first wholesale value of VFDA-origin salmon in 2007 was $70.9 million. This includes fish harvested in common property and cost recovery fisheries. This was an increase of approximately 130 percent over the 2006 season, and included $69.8 million in value for pink salmon products and $1.0 million for coho products. Increases in the total wholesale value for pink salmon were slightly offset by decreases in coho production. Coho wholesale values are much higher than those for pink salmon, and the impacts of shifts in their volume have a more significant impact on the total value of the resource. The first Economic Impacts of the Valdez Fisheries Development Association report, which examined impacts from the 2000 fishing season, estimated wholesale value at $23.8 million. Though the methodology in the 2000 report differs from that used here and results cannot be directly compared, the scale of the increase is consistent with volume and price trends. Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association: 2007 Vpdore McDowell Croup, inc. ■ Poge 14 Figure 4 First Wholesale Value of VFDA Salmon, by Species, 2000-2007 (millions of dollars) S8D.0 S 70.0 SG0.0 a $50.0 0 V S40.0 $30.0 0 S20.d S 10.0 $0.0 su I 1.3 Sl.b S0.li so.SG9. S46.8 $42.4 S42. S0 3 $27. $17..3 51 1.1 � 7 1001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 © Pink ■ [nho Source: McDowell Group estimates, based on Alaska Salmon Price Report, and ADF&C Annual Management Reports and effort and value reports. Roe is a very important component of the total wholesale value, despite being a small portion of the volume of finished product. In 2007, pink and coha roe products accounted For an estimated 32 percent of the first wholesale value of VFDA fish, but only 9 percent of total volume. Figure 5 First Wholesale Value and Volume of VFDA Salmon, by Product Form, 2007 Report, and ADF&G Annual Management Reports and effort and value reports. Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Association: 2007 Update McDowell Group, Inc. ■ Page 15 In 2007, the total economic impact associated with processing VFDA-origin fish was $84 million in output and $12 million in labor income. This does not include output and income related to commercial fishing. This compares to $19 million in output and $5.2 million in labor in 2000. Fcommic Impocrs of Valdez Fisheries Development Association. 2007 Updare McDowell Group, Inc. 9 Page 16 Recreational Fishing Salmon raised in the VFDA hatchery at Salomon Gulch, near Valdez, contribute substantially to the sport fisheries in the Valdez area. Coho salmon production, in particular, enables significant sport fishing effort each summer. The sport fishery targeting VFDA coha is a highly visible and important part of the organization's contribution to the regional economy, and supports a significant vessel -based fishery as well as shore -based efforts. Pink salmon are also harvested, primarily from shore. According to ADF&G, approximately 60 charter vessels operated from Valdez in 2006. 1n addition, more than half of the 510 slips in the Valdez boat harbor are held by non-residents, and significantly more people trailer boats to the town or leave trailered boats in Valdez for periodic use. There is a wait list of more than 240 people for slips in the harbor, of which only one - quarter are Valdez residents, As with the commercial fishery, the sport salmon harvest varies annually with stock abundance. According to ADF&G and VFDA staff, the majority of Coho salmon harvested in the Valdez Arm are a product of VFDA's hatchery program. In particular, nearly all late season coha are of hatchery origin. According to VFDA staff, wild -run coha generally return to their natal rivers by the middle of August. Fishing effort for Coho in August and September tends to target VFDA stocks. In 2007, 70,900 Coho salmon were harvested in sport fisheries, and 27,500 pink salmon. (Note these data are preliminary.) These harvests are lower than those seen in the earlier part of this decade. From 2000 to 2007, more than 705,000 VFDA coho salmon were harvested in sport fisheries. More than 380,000 pink salmon were taken during the same period. The coha harvest contributes anywhere from 45 to 75 percent of the VFDA-origin sport fish annually, depending on the year. Figure 6 Annual Sportfish Harvest, VFDA Salmon, 2000-2007 160,000 140,000 120,00❑ 1 U0, 00U 0 v 80,000 E 60,000 c 40.000 20, 0❑❑ Coho ■ pink 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007- Source; ADF&C, Hatchery Annual Management Report, VFDA. 2007 Figures are preliminary. *Data are preliminary. EconomK rrnpacr.s of 'Valdez Fisheries Devefoprnenr Assaciarion: 2007 Vpdate McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 17 Many of the participants in Valdez's sport fisheries are non -Valdez residents. VFDA staff report that many fishermen arrive by vehicle via the Richardson Highway, with particular representation by residents of Fairbanks and the Matanuska-5usitna Valley. (Valdez is approximately 5 hours from the Mat -Su Valley by car, and 6-7 hours from Fairbanks.) Valdez hosts several fishing derbies annually. Two of these focus on salmon. More than 6,225 daily derby tickets were sold for the salmon derbies in 2006. The majority of this effort is likely attributable to VFDA salmon. Of all derby participants (including those for the halibut derby), 70 percent are Alaska residents and approximately four -fifths of those are from communities other than Valdez. (More than half are from Fairbanks.) Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Associotion; 2007 Update McDowell Group, Inc. • Page I8 Fisheries Business and Salmon Enhancement Tax The State of Alaska Collects a tax on all seafood delivered in the state. This tax of 3 percent is levied on the ex - vessel value of the fish. Half of fisheries business tax receipts are redistributed to communities where the fish were landed, while the other half remains with State government. An additional "salmon enhancement tax" of 2 percent is levied on the ex -vessel value of salmon caught of landed in an established aquaculture region, The revenues from this tax are distributed to the regional aquaculture corporations. As an independent hatchery organization, VFDA does not receive any funding through this mechanism. (Prince William Sound Regional Aquaculture Corporation is the association for the Prince William Sound region.) Nevertheless, the tax is still levied on VFDA production. In total, from 2000 to 2007, an estimated S 1.9 million in taxes were generated by VFDA salmon production. These taxes are levied on the ex -vessel value of the harvest, and fluctuate with annual values. Figure 7 Estimated Fisheries Business Tax and Salmon Enhancement Tax from VFDA Salmon, 2000-2007 $350,000 $300,000 S250,000 $ 200, 000 $150,000 S100,n00 $50, 000 sil 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 zoos 2006 2007 © Fisheries business 0 Salmon Enhancement Source McDowell Group Estimates Economic Impacts of Valdez Fisheries Development Msociatian: 2007 update McDowell Group Inc. ■ Page 19 Economic Impact Earnings by Alaska resident fisherman can be expected to cycle through the Alaska economy. These earnings are spent in support of businesses directly related to the fishing activity, but also go toward non -fishing - related expenditures, such as family groceries, home purchases, and other items. This recirculation of fishing dollars is known as a "multiplier effect." The term rialtipher illustrates that each initial dollar spent or job created in the fishing industry will lead to additional spending and employment by Alaska businesses selling goods and services to fishermen, processors, and their crew or employees. These businesses further spend a portion of each dollar received to pay for their goods and services. Multiple rounds of this spending and the portion of each dollar Spent locally create the multiplier effect in the Alaska economy. In 2007, VFDA salmon were estimated at S70.9 million in total first wholesale value. This total value included the ex -vessel purchase value paid to fishermen for common property harvest, estimated at S10.9 million; the cost of harvesting cost -recovery fish, the processing inputs such as labor (paid to processors employees), processing equipment and supplies, and other inputs. Including multiplier effects (total direct and indirect economic impacts), VFDA accounted for $100 million of economic activity in 2007. This includes an estimated $20 million in labor income in the Alaska economy. By comparison, the total 2000 output was $34.7 million. Strong returns and marketplace improvements resulted in a significant overall increase in the value of VFDA's activities. Economic Impacts of Volder Fisheries Development Associonon: 2007 Update I41cDovvel1 Grnuf, Inc. ■ Poge 20 I 1