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Attachment F Rate Impact
Attachment F - Rate Impact Analysis draft: q's to:Lake & Peninsula Regional Energy Screening Study CHIGNIKS - INDIAN CREEK HYDRO PRELIMINARY RATE IMPACT ANALYSIS All values are in 2008$ Hydro Power Rate Impact Assumptions Avoided Costs 500 Capacity (kW)80%Pct Grant Funded $4.36 /gallon long run diesel price 0.5 Annual Capacity Factor 30 Amortization (yrs)0.0833 Diesel Efficiency (gallons/kWh) 0.94 Annual Availability 7%Real Interest $0.36 $/kWh avoided fuel 2,065,500 Estimated annual production (kWh)$0.18 Non-Fuel Costs $0.02 $/kWh avoided diesel O&M $1,500 /kW Development Costs $15,000 /kW EPC Contract Cost 5.0%Real Discount Rate $120 /kW Annual O&M $50,000 5 year maintenance cycle 1.05 COSTS BENEFITS - AVOIDED DIESEL Existing Diesel Rates New Hydro Rates Rate Savings Date Year Development EPC Contract O&M Cost Total Cost Revenue Requirement Avoided kWhs Annual Avoided Cost $/kWh $/kWh $/kWh 2008 0 $300,000 $300,000 $0.56 2009 1 $450,000 $450,000 $0.56 2010 2 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $0.56 2011 3 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $0.56 2012 4 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $0.56 2013 5 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,000,000 $383,611 $0.56 $0.38 $0.18 2014 6 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,050,000 $402,792 $0.56 $0.37 $0.19 2015 7 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,102,500 $422,931 $0.56 $0.37 $0.20 2016 8 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,157,625 $444,078 $0.56 $0.36 $0.21 2017 9 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,215,506 $466,282 $0.56 $0.35 $0.22 2018 10 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $204,301 1,276,282 $489,596 $0.56 $0.34 $0.22 2019 11 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,340,096 $514,076 $0.56 $0.33 $0.23 2020 12 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,407,100 $539,779 $0.56 $0.33 $0.24 2021 13 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,477,455 $566,768 $0.56 $0.32 $0.25 2022 14 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,551,328 $595,107 $0.56 $0.31 $0.25 2023 15 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $204,301 1,628,895 $624,862 $0.56 $0.31 $0.26 2024 16 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,710,339 $656,105 $0.56 $0.30 $0.26 2025 17 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,795,856 $688,910 $0.56 $0.29 $0.27 2026 18 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,885,649 $723,356 $0.56 $0.29 $0.28 2027 19 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 1,979,932 $759,524 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2028 20 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2029 21 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2030 22 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2031 23 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2032 24 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2033 25 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2034 26 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2035 27 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2036 28 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2037 29 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2038 30 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2039 31 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2040 32 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2041 33 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2042 34 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2043 35 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2044 36 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2045 37 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2046 38 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2047 39 $60,000 $60,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2048 40 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $204,301 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.28 $0.28 2049 41 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2050 42 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2051 43 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2052 44 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2053 45 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2054 46 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2055 47 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2056 48 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2057 49 $60,000 $60,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 2058 50 $50,000 $60,000 $110,000 $0 2,065,500 $792,349 $0.56 $0.18 $0.38 8-Oct-08 mafa@alaska.net lakepenenergyaea_grantoct08a HydroRateImpact 10/8/2008 1:03 PM