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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAttachment J Fuel Price ProjectionsDiesel Fuel Price Projectionsdraft:8-Oct-08q's to:mafa@alaska.netLake & Peninsula Regional Energy Screening StudyDIESEL FUEL SUPPLY PRICE PROJECTIONLong Run Price of Oil$/bbl$100.00Per AEA Renewable ProjectionsLong Run Price of Oil$/gallon $2.38 [$/gallon at refinery acquisition price]$6.72Low Sulfur Premium$/gallon $0.05CO2 Emissions Tax Premium$/gallon $0.25 $24/tonne CO2 Transport & Delivery $3.75Long Run Price of Fuel Supply $/gallon $2.68 Long Run Average RAC Refining $0.29Long Run Price of Heating Oil over Utility Price $/gallon $1.20 Rural Wtd Avg. Index Crude Oil $2.68$2.68$1.20Utility Diesel Fuel Heating OilShort Run Margin EstimatePCE June 08Price based on inventory invoice from:Heating Oil Price Survey Aug 08Latest Utility Fuel Price AvailableDate of Latest Available InformationEstimated Short Run Utility Delivery Margin Month-YearWest Coast Refiner Acquisition Price ($/bbl)Crude Oil $/gallonPOP ($/gallon) ($/gallon)Chignik Lake 128 $4.28 $5.48December-07Chignik Lagoon 68 $4.48 $5.68 $4.48 4.62 May 08 na $1.78January-08$87.10 $2.07Chignik Bay81 $4.33 $5.53 2.97 Dec 07 $4.29February-08$89.39 $2.13Ivanof Bay22 $5.75 $6.95October-07Perryville119 $4.75 $5.95naNovember-07Port Heiden87$5.50$6.70$5.50March-08$98.01$2.33MAFA Long Run Estimatelakepenenergyaea_grantoct08aDieselFuelPriceProjection10/8/20081:17 PMPort Heiden87$5.50$6.70$5.50March-08$98.01$2.33Pilot Point61 $5.75 $6.95 $5.75 3.04 Dec 07 $5.63 Apr 08 $3.07April-08$107.57 $2.56Ugashik13 $6.00 $7.20 $6.00May-08$119.33 $2.84Egegik64 $4.95 $6.15 $4.93 5.09 May 08 na $2.25June-08$128.53 $3.06Naknek/South Naknek609 $4.10 $5.30 2.51 Jan 08July-08$133.52 $3.18King Salmon426 $4.10 $5.30 2.51 Jan 08August-08$113.97 $2.71Portage Creek9September-08$106.00$2.52Clark's Point / Ekuk (Ward's Cannery) 66$5.13Dillingham2405 $4.15 $5.60 $4.17 2.56 Aug 07 $5.78 $4.20 Aug 08 $1.49Aleknagik237 $4.15 $5.85Manokotak431 $4.35 $5.95 0.78 RegulatoryTogiak787 $4.40 $6.00 2.62 Oct 07 $6.02Ekwok108 $5.50 $6.70 $5.48 3.66 Sept 06 $5.63 May 08 $2.79New Stuyahok 448 $5.40 $6.60 $5.40 3.12 Oct 07 $4.99Koliganek192 $5.60 $6.80 $5.58 3.74 July 07 $5.72 May 08 $2.88Levelock71 $6.20 $7.40 5.76 June 07Igiugig32 $6.90 $8.10 4.26 Feb 08Kokhanok175 $6.90 $8.10 $6.88 7.04 May 08 $9.10$4.20Pedro Bay38 $6.20 $7.50 $6.18 7.34 June 08 $6.76 July 08 $3.58Iliamna93 $5.60 $6.80 $5.57 4.96 Jan 08$2.89Newhalen167 $5.60 $7.00 4.96 Jan 08Nondalton197 $5.60 $7.00 4.96 Jan 08 $7.95Port Alsworth 118 $5.50 $6.95 $5.50 5.66 May 08$2.82$3.16$0.29 $3.75 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 1CrudeRefineryTransport & Delivery$7.19lakepenenergyaea_grantoct08aDieselFuelPriceProjection10/8/20081:17 PM