HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA124b FERC App Vol 2B 7 1983,
'.~iJSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
FERC LICENSE APPLICATION
PROJECT NO.7114-000
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BEFORE THE
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION
APPLICATION FOR LICENSE FOR MAJOR PROJECT
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
VOLUME 28
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
..
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
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ARLIS
Alaska Resources
Lihmry &InfonnatlOn SelVIces
AllcbQraa~~Alaska
JULY 1983
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY -
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MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
ECONOKIC KODELING SYSTEM
TECHNICAL DOCUKENTATION REPORT
Prepared for
Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture
Prepared by
Oliver Scott Goldsmith,P.I.
Teresa Hull
Lee Huskey
Gunnar Knapp
"Brian Reeder
Karen White
Institute of Social and Economic Research
U~iversity of Alaska
June 1983
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (HAP)
ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Documentation Guide . . . . . . . . . . .
Creation of the Projections . . . . . . .
Historical Overview of the Alaska Economy
1
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8
Appendix A.ISER MAP Economic Modeling System:
Scenario Generator Model
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A.l Organization
A.2 Use ..
A.3 Program Description
A-3
A-9
A-19
Appendix B.ISER HAP Alaska Economic Model:Economic
and Fiscal Modules
B.l Introduction ....
B.2 Economic Module Description
B.3 Fiscal Module Description ..
B.4 Input Variables .
B.5 Variable and Parameter Name Conventions
B.6 Parameter Values ....
B.7 Validation and Properties
B.8 Input Data Sources
B.9 Programs for Operations.
B.IO Adjustments for Simulation
B.ll Key to Regressions ....
Appendix C.
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C.l
C.2
C.3
C.4
C.5
C.6
C.7
C.8
C.9
C.IO
C.Il
C.12
ISER HAP Alaska Economic Model:
Population Module
Description . .
Flow Di agram
Variable Names
Symbol Dictionary
Parameter Definitions
Coefficients
Input Definitions ...
Input Data Sources
Structural Description
Regression Coefficients
Parameter Values
Validation . . . . . .
B-1
B-5
B-3l
B-63
B-68
B-73
B-79
B-95
8-105
8-107
8-111
C-l
C-4
C-5
C-8
C-9
C-ll
C-12
C-13
C-14
C-17
C-18
C-27
Appendix D.ISER MAP Alaska Economic Kodel:
Household Formation Kodule
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D.l Description '.. . . .
D.2 Parameter As sumptions . . . . . . . . .
D.3 Projections Alaskan Households in the Future
D-l
D-4
D-8
Appendix E.ISER MAP Economic Kodeling System:
Regionalization Kodel
E.l Kodel Description
E.2 Flow Diagram
E.3 Inputs .....
E.4 Variable and Parameter Names
E.S Parameter Values
E.6 Kodel Validation
E.7 Programs for Model Use
E-1
E-S
E-7
E-9
E-13
E-25
E-29
Appendix F.
Appendix G.
Appendix H.
Appendix 1.
Appendix J.
Appendix K.
ISER MAP Alaska Economic Kodel:
Variable and Parameter Dictionary
ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model:
Listing -Including Parameters
ISER MAP Economic Model:Stochastic Equations
ISER MAP Regionalization Kodel:
Listing -Including Parameters
Sensitivity Analysis Using Alaska Economic Model
Scenario Documentation
R.l Summary of Base Case Assumptions .
K.2 Aggregate Output of Scenario Generator
K.3 Case Files Used to Create Base Case Scenario
K-l
K-ll
K-17
L.1 Exogenous Variables
L.2 Startup Variables .
Appendix L.
Appendix M.
ISER MAP Alaska Economic Kodel:Input Variables
ISER MAP Regionalization Model:Input Variables
L-l
L-19 -
M.l Exogenous Variables
M.2 Startup Variables.
K-l
K-ll
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May 1983
ISER MAP Model Output for Harza Ebasco
Susitna Joint Venture
N.1
N.2
N.3
N.4
N.S
N.6.
N.7.
N.8
N.9
N.10
N.ll
2~Annual Decline in Oil Price
1~Annual Decline in Oil Price
Constant Oil Price . . . . . .
2 ~Annual Increase in Oil Price
Sherman Clark Associates--No Supply Disruption Case
Sherman Clark Associates--Base Case . . . . .
Alaska Department of Revenue--Average Price .
Alaska Department of Revenue--SOth Percentile
Alaska Department of Revenue--30th Percentile
Data Resources Institute--June Oil Price Forecast
Selected Historical Data Series . . . . . . . . .
N-3
N-9
N-15
N-21
N-27
N-33
N-37
N-45
N-51
N-S7
N-63
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Appendix O.
Appendix P.
Previous ISER Studies of Rai1be1t
Electricity Requirements
Bibliography
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KAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
Introduction
This report is the culmination of an effort to completely
document the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)Man-
in-the-Arctic Program (HAP)Modeling System and simultaneously to
develop timely projections of economic activity for Alaska's
Railbelt.The purpose of the study is to provide input into the
process of planning for the electric power requirements for the
Railbelt and,specifically,to support the state licensing
application before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
for the Sus i tna hydroelectric project.Funding for the study was
provided initially by the Alaska Power Authority (APA),and
subsequently by Harza-Ebasco Susi tna Joint Venture when they were
retained by APA to complete the licensing application and plan the
project.Harza-Ebasco Susi tna Joint Venture provided coordination
and guidance to ISER during the performance of the Modeling System
update.
This introduction serves three purposes.The first is to
provide the reader wi th a guide to the model documentation which
forms the bulk of this report.The second is to provide a
description of how the projections used in the licensing application
were prepared.The third is to provide the reader with a short
historical review of the sources of growth of the Alaska economy and
the implication of this growth for planning purposes.
Documentation Guide
The ISER HAP Economic Modeling System produces annual
projections of a large variety of economic and demographic variables
based upon user inputs representing the development of basic
industry and state government fiscal behavior.The system consists
of a number of computerized models;computer programs for model
creation and utilization;parameter and variable files for model
implementation;and data sets for creation and estimation of model
variables and parameters.All model components are written in the
computer language called TROLL l and are physically located on a
computer in Cambridge,Massachusetts,which is accessible on an
interactive basis through the TELENET telecommications network by a
local phone number in Anchorage.
IThe interested reader is referred to TROLL Users Guide.MIT
Center for Computational Research in Economics and Management
Science,1980,for a detailed description of TROLL capabilities.
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MAP Documentation
M~y 1983
The overview of the modeling system presented in Figure 1 shows
that at the heart of the system is the statewide economic model
(current version entitled A83.2).Although virtually always run as
a unit,the model is divided into four modules for convenience in
model construction,updating,and documentation.Three of the
modules--economic,fiscal,and population--are simultaneous,while
the fourth--household formation--is simply a derivative of the
population module.Not depicted in Figure 1 are some other
ded vaH ve modules of the statewide economic model which are not
used in the current project,but which,for completeness,do appear
in this documentation.These are the following--Native economic
activity module;definitional equation module (converts variables
into real and real per capita terms);and income distribution model
links.(The income distribution model is simultaneous with the
economic model,but currently nonoperational.)
General module descriptions,as well as specific structural
descriptions of each equation,can be found in the following
locations in the documentation:economic module-B.l and 8.2;fiscal
module-B.l and B.3;population module-C.I,C.2,and C.9;household
formation module-D.1.A complete listing of all equations forming
the economic model (economic,fiscal,population,and household
formation modules)appears in Appendix G,which also lists the names
of all of the variables and parameters used in the model.
Because of the large number of different variables and
parameters used in the model,a complete dictionary has been
prepared (Appendix F)which lists and defines variables and
parameters and,where appropriate,indicates the source for the
historical values used in model construction and utilization.Since
the names assigned to the variables display some internal,albeit
obscure,logic,the naming conventions are summarized for the
economic and fiscal modules in section B.S and for the population
and household formation modules in sections C.3, C.4,C.S,and C.6.
The economic model is operationalized by assigning specific
values to model and coefficient parameters by providing a set of
startup values for those variables that are the primary model output
(startup values for the endogenous variables are a requirement of
the computer simulation algorithm),and by entering into the
computer for every simulation year a specific value for each
variable which is exogenous to the model.(In the TROLL system,
variables in the POLICY category are computationally identical to
those in the EXOGENOUS category.)
Kodel and coefficient parameters consist of all constants which
assume a fixed value throughout all the years of a particular
simulation.They differ in the manner in which they are developed
because the coefficient category is restricted to those constants
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Parameters:
•State Fiscal Policy
Parameters.
•Stochastic
Parameters
•Nonstochastic
Parameters
Input Variables:
• I ndustrial Case
files-
•Petroleum
Revenue
Forecasts
'--------t Nonstochastic
Parameters
Input Variables:
r-t:======;---~.U.S.Inflation Rate
•U.S.Unemploy-
ment Rate
•Others
Figure 1
Scenario
Generator J-ll1E-----------~
Model
Statewide
Economic Model
•Economic Module
•Fiscal Module
•Population Module
•Household
Formation Module
Regionalization
'-----I..-t
Model
ISER MAP ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM
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which are developed stochastically by regression analysis and the
parameter category includes all other constants.Regression
analysis is utilized where time series data is available for
developing historical statistical relationships among variables.
This is generally the case for the economic and fiscal modules for
which the regression equations used in coefficient development are
presented in Appendix H and briefly summarized in,section B.11.The
population module contains one stochastic equation shown .in section
C .10.The household formation module contains no stochastic
equations.
Parameters take the place of coefficients in the household
formation module,most of the population module,and in partiCUlar
instances in the economic and fiscal modules,and are used either
when no historical time series of sufficient length or continuity is
available,or where structural change has occurred such that the
historical relationships do not reflect expected future behavioral
relationships.The parameters (as well as the coefficients)for the
economic model are listed in Appendix G.A description of the
sources and methods used in the derivation of all parameter values
(as well as the values themselves)is included for each module as
follows:economic and fiscal modules--B.6;population module--C.ll;
and household formation module--D.2 And 0.3.
After model construction and prior to simulation,the model is
initialized by adjusting the values of certain parameters and
coefficients so that the output for the most important variables
corresponds as closely as possible to the most current actually-
observable historical values.All such adjustments currently used
are documented and explained in section B.lO.
Initial-year startup values for primary output variables
(ENDOGENOUS)are,in most cases,immaterial to the final results of
simulation.The computer algorithm simply requires a starting value
for each variable to initiate the search for a solution.(As a
default,the computer can use a value for the previous year to
initiate the search.)
The choice of startup values is only important for those
variables which enter equations with a time lag because these
initial conditions form a part of the datum for the current year
model solution.This situation occurs most frequently in the
population module where the population in year t,before migration,
is equal to the surviving population from the year t-l.These
startup values must be chosen with care to ensure that the model
begins on the correct trajectory.In all instances where lagged
startup values are required,they come directly from historical
data,and this is also the case for the majority of the noncritical
startup variables.Since the model is currently set to begin
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projective simulation with the year 1981,startup values for
ENDOGENOUS variables for the years 1980 and 1981 are necessary.
These are presented in section L.2.
The final element necessary to run the state economic model
consists of values for all the exogenous variables (in TROLL
terminology,this includes both EXOGENOUS and POLICY variables).
This input data is of two general types--variables which have values
assumed outs ide the model,and a small number of parameters which
change in value from year to year.The variables can further be
subdivided into economic variables and fiscal policy variables with
the former consisting of basic sector employment levels and various
state and local revenues,and the latter consisting of state
expenditure policy switches controlling such policies as the
disposition of Permanent Fund earnings.A complete listing of these
input variables for the economic model is contained in section
8.4.2 The source for the default values for each input variable
is described in section 8.8,and the default values themselves are
all presented in section L.I.A subset of these input variables may
be,at the discretion of the user,provided by the scenario
generation model described below.In all of the simulations
presented in this report,certain of the default input variables,
primarily various petroleum revenues,are superseded by alternative
input data sets.This process is described in the following section
of the introduction.
Throughout the model development stage and before simulation,
the model is tested for its abili ty to accurately represent the
structure of the economy and population,as well as to moni tor its
properties.These tests are described in detail in section 8.7 for
the economic and fiscal modules;in section C.12 for the population
module;and in 0.3 for the household formation module.One
particularly important element of this continuous testing and
monitoring of the model is sensitivity analysis,in which the
implications of model performance to changes in individual input
variables,parameter and coefficient values,and equation structures
are assessed.A report on the most current set of sensitivity
analyses is presented as Appendix J.
The regionalization model (current version A83.CD)uses selected
output from the ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model to produce regional
2The popUlation module is simultaneous with the economic and
fiscal modules but can be detached and run separately.The input
variables which would be required to accomplish this (and which are
normally supplied by the economic module)are presented in sections
C.7 and C.3.
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projections of employment,population,and households.The regional
projections are consistent with and cover the same range of years as
the statewide model because the regionalization model is essentially
a nonstochastic algorithm for allocating statewide employment,
population,and households to the regional level.As such,it is
not an integral part of the state model which can be,and often is,
used without the regionalization model.
A complete description of the regionalization model is contained
in Appendix E,including a general description in sections E.1 and
E.2,variable and parameter names in section E.4,and procedures for
model validation in section E.6.A complete listing of all model
equations is contained in Appendix I which also includes a listing
of all the parameter values.(Since the model is nonstochastic,it
contains no coefficients.)The derivation of all the parameter
values is explained in section E.5.
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The regionalization model is complicated by the fact that it
requires input variables from two sources in order to produce a
regional allocation of a statewide simulation.Control totals from
a statewide simulation for population,employment,and households
must be provided by the output of the economic model.In addition,
regionalized basic and government sector employment assumption
consistent with the statewide assumptions used in the corresponding
statewide simulation are required.Complete documentation of what
these variables consist of,how these input variables are obtained,
and how consistency between the state and regionalization models is
assured is contained in sections E.3 and E.7.
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a procedure for the
its input data will
particular statewide
generator.One such
A small number of
These are presented
Because the regionalization model is
allocation of statewide simulation results,
consist of a portion of the output of a
simulation as well as output of the scenario
input data set is presented in section H.l.
startup values are needed for model simulation.
in section H.2.
The choice of input variables to produce a simulation of the
economic model and,if required,the corresponding regionalized
allocation,rests with the model user.The scenario generator model
is usually utilized for the purpose of producing the most important
of these variables in a consistent and convenient manner.It is
described in Appendix A.The output of the scenario generator is,
however,neither necessary nor sufficient to provide all the input
data necessary to run either the economic model or the
regionalization model.-
The scenario generator is a program which aggregates a series of
case files into an economic scenario.The individual case files -.
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A
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May 1983
describe.primarily with employment variables.the economic
dimenslons of particular industries such as fish harvesting,
individual large projects such as a gas pipeline,and petroleum
revenue projections.A large library of case files is maintained on
the computer and successive scenarios can be produced by choosing
different case files.
The output of the scenario generator is a set of sixteen basic
employment,petroleum.and tourist visitor data series which conform
to input requirements of the state model.as well as a cons istent
set of forty regionalized employment variables which conform to
input requirements of a corresponding run of the regionalization
model.3
The control scenario produced by the scenario generator for this
current study is described in section K.l in the form of a list of
economic assumptions for each basic industry.The output of the
scenario generator for use in the economic model using these
economic assumptions is shown in section K.2 and also included as a
subset of the variables listed in.section L.l.The corresponding
output for use in the regionalization model is shown as a subset of
the data in section M.l.The input for the regionalization model,
in the form of a description of each of the case files used to form
the control scenario.is contained in section K.3.
Appendix 0 briefly reviews the relation of the current study to
earlier work by ISER in projecting Railbelt electricity demand.
Appendix P is a bibliography of publications and papers relating to
the MAP modeling system.
substantial computerized data base supports the modeling
Documentation of the data base is available on request.
Creation of the Projections
Once the models have been constructed,tested.and calibrated,
the parameter and coefficient values have been calculated,and an
input data set (including startup values)has been constructed,the
models can be repeatedly and easily run to simulate future
employment,population.and household levels for the Alaska Railbelt
region.This process is facilitated by a series of programs
especially written for this purpose as described in section B.9 of
this documentation.
For those simulations for which selected inputs and outputs are
presented in Appendix N,selected control input assumptions
described in sections B.4 and B.8 and listed in Appendix K and
3The scenario generator model also provides consistent input
to a new experimental model of the Anchorage economy (ANKKOD)which
is currently in the final stages of development.
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May 1983
section L.l were overridden.A number of different petroleum
revenue assumptions were chosen by Harza-Ebasco and used as input to
the economic model.In addition,ISER economists altered certain
state economic policy variables in response to different levels of
petroleum revenues to maintain a reasonable mix of public sector
expenditures.The overriding input variables are presented for each
case in Appendix N.4
The sequence of events for a typical simulation is as follows:
First,the Alaska economic model is prepared for simulation by
assembling the model,parameters and coefficients,the control input
data,and the startup data.A portion of the control data (sixteen
variables)is supplied by the scenario generator model,which needs
only to be run when formi ng a new economi c scenario.At th i s time
any changes are made to the input data (or the parameters,
coefficients,startup data,or model structure)for the particular
simulation to be done.In this study,this involves substitution of
alternative petroleum revenue assumptions and alternative state
fiscal policy parameters.The simulation then occurs and the output
is reviewed.In many instances,the state fiscal policy parameters
need Lo be adjusted prior to additional model run iterations before
a satisfactory solution is obtained.
When a satisfactory simulation has been completed,the
regionalization model can be run.This requires a subset of the
output of the Alaska economic model as input,as well as input
directly from the scenario generator model (regionalized version of
similar input fed into the Alaska economic model).No other
specific changes are required for completing different simulations.
The output which is provided to the electricity end use Railbelt
energy demand (RED)model comes primarily from the regionalization
model.Only households by age of head and nonagricultural wage and
salary employment enter the RED model directly from the economic
model.
Historical Overview of Alaska Economy
The pattern of economic growth of Alaska is shown in Figure 2.
and is measured by four categories of employment.The growth since
statehood in 1959 has been dramatic,particularly in the 1970s.The
average annual growth rate measured between 1961 and 1980 has been
4In all simulations reported in this document,incremental
power requirements for the Alaska Railbelt are supplied by a
combination of new hydroelectric facilities (Chackachamna and
Bradley Lake).treated exogenously,and new gas turbines.treated
endogenously.
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May 1983
FIG.2:ALASKA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
<THOUSANDS)
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-.-/'.........../1'-....._..___.1---------.--(UPPC RT /..--..:--/~/'"v /l-I ..---.....................--
/'v.-----.........-
v-1-----(;OVEF NMEf\T /I-~--/,'
t:---f..---------:-----
----I----n.:i~RAC:::ITR11r ITr IDC"--..........
k--------...[7 ..............-......-
--I3AS I II--
.o
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
75
25
125
150
100
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4.3 percent,more than double the national average over the same
period.5
Of particular interest in understanding the possible future
direction of the Alaska economy is the information about past
sources of growth which can be obtained from an examination of the
past behavior of the different categories of employment.
Conventional wisdom is that the economic growth of a region is
dependent upon the growth of its basic sector industries--those
industries for which the region has a comparative advantage in
producing goods and services for export outside the region,such as
manufactured goods.Around these industries cluster support"
industries both for the basic sector and for the labor force
employed in'those industries.Basic sector employment (defined to
include mining,petroleum,fish harvesting,timber harvesting,
manufacturing for export,tourism,agriculture,pipeline
construction,operations,and federal government--civilian and
military)has grown since statehood,but only by an annualized rate
of 1.2 percent per year,and displayed practically no growth during
the decade of the 1960s.Basic sector employment growth has
contributed to growth in the overall economy both directly and
indirectly through the multiplier process,but clearly by itself it
has not been a significant factor in the rapid economic growth of
the past.
Two important characteristics of basic sector employment in
Alaska are not indicated by the relatively stable level of thi s
sector during the last twenty years.The first is that the
stability is largely the result of the federal government,which is
the largest employer in the state and which dominates,in numbers,
basic sector employment.In fact,federal employment in Anchorage
is surpassed only by Washington,D.C.(among the BEA Economics
Areas)as a proportion of total employment.6 This component of
basic employment forms a large and stable anchor for the whole
sector.
This is particularly important because of the inherent
instability of the remainder of the basic sector in Alaska.Because
Alaska's remote location and harsh climate result in high production
costs,basic sector activi ty has historically been confined to the
5The annualized growth in total civilian employment between
1959 and 1980 was 2.0 percent.Valerie Personick,"Industry Output
and Employment:BLS Projections to 1990,"Konth1y Labor Review,
April 1979,p.10.
6Ar 10n Tussing,Lee Huskey,and Tom Singer,"The Place of
Support Sector Growth,Import Substitution,and Structural Change in
Alaska's Economic Development,"ISER,February 1983,p.III.3.
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extraction of rich deposits (low average cost of production)of
natural resources.The past pattern has been one of exploitation of
one resource after another--furs,gold,timber,copper,fish--by
nonresident labor and outside capital in a rush to deplete each
resource as rapidly as possible.The result has been an economy
dominated by a succession of booms and busts as new resources were
discovered,extracted,and depleted.Since the basic sector held a
more dominant position in the total economy in past times (for
example,63 percent of the total in 1961 versus 36 percent in 1980)
than currently,the cyclical nature of basic activity meant that the
whole economy was subject to instability.
Even in the best si tuations,the production of primary
commodities is highly cyclical.Although the smaller proportional
contribution of basic to total employment today tends to disguise
the cyclical influence of natural resource extraction,it is
important to keep in mind for two reasons.First,the cyclical
nature of primary commodity markets makes it difficult to project
future demand (and price levels);and second,the industries are
heavily dependent upon supplies which are highly uncertain.For
example,very little is known about mineral occurrences in the state
or the dynamics of the different fishery stocks.
The other three employment categories shown in Figure 2 have all
displayed much more rapid employment growth since statehood than the
basic sector.The reasons for their growth reveal much about the
process of economic growth in the state.The infrastructure sector
is loosely defined to include the transportation,communication,
pUblic utility,and construction industries,as well as business
services.Annualized growth in this sector has been 5.5 percent
since 1961 with a prominent "bulge"during the mid 1970s.This
growth is largely the result of the undeveloped conditions of the
economy prior to statehood combined with the scattered distribution
of population in a huge state with sparse population.Thus,the
level of infrastructure employment necessary to link the population
together is high,and the process of building the infrastructure
itself magnifies employment in this sector in the short run.The
building is both for the purpose of "catching up"to the
infrastructure levels of other regions.and also to meet the needs
of the rapidly expanding Alaskan population.This is reflected in
the fact that state and local government capi tal outlay per capita
have historically averaged three to five times the national
average.7
An important variable in the future economic growth of the state
is the extent to which this process of infrastructure enrichment
will continue to occur independent of growth in the basic sector.
7U .S.Department of Commerce,
Governmental Finances,annual.
11
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Kay 1983
The answer in large part depends upon two factors.The first is the
availability of public capital to fund infrastructure additions.
Particularly in the early years after statehood,the funds to
construct infrastructures came primarily from the federal
government.During the 1970s,state government had been able to
provide an increasing share of the funding for infrastructure as a
result of the receipt of substantial oil revenues.
The second is the future rate of population growth.The faster
this growth occurs,the more infrastructure development is required
and the higher will be construction activity on a per capita basis.
State and local government forms the third sector of the
economy.Employment growth in this sector has been particularly
dramatic since statehood growing at an annualized rate of
8.2 percent.Interestingly,the rate of increase during the first
dec'ade after statehood--9.4 percent--exceeds that of the decade of
the 1970s when the state began to receive substantial amounts of oil
revenues.State government revenues currently are derived almost
exclusively from petroleum,and a large proportion of local
government revenues are also dependent upon petroleum through state
transfers and laxes on petroleum property.Consequently,the future
size of this sector of the economy,which is second only to federal
government in numbers employed,is closely tied to the future
receipt of petroleum revenues.
The final category of employment is support,consisting of the
trade,finance,and service sectors of lhe economy.It has grown on
an annualized basis at approximately the same rate,8.3 percent,as
state and local government;and like slate government,the growth
rate was slightly faster,at 8.6 percent,during the first decade
since statehood.The growth in this sector is only partially in
response to the growth in the other three sectors of the economy.
In 1961,for example,there were nineteen jobs in this sector for
every 100 jobs in the rest of the economy,and if the same ratio
held in 1980.there would be 27 thousand,rather than the
75 thousand support sector jobs which the economy actually provided
in 1980.
This structural change of the economy can be characterized in
three dimensions.First,there has been a change over time in the
market basket of goods consumed within the state.Second.there has
been a change over time in the methods by which support sector goods
and services are produced within the state.Third,there has been a
change over time in the goods and services which are locally
available (import substitution),
These changes have primarily been the result of an increase in
the size of the local market.First.and most obviously,the
population of the state nearly doubled in the first twenty years of
statehood--exhibiting a 2.9 percent annualized growth rate compared
to 1.0 percent for the United States as a whole.Less obvious,but
12
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more importantly,has been the growth in income.Figure 3 shows the
growth of the average annual wage,and personal income per capi ta;
both have increased markedly in real terms since statehood.Both
have,in addition,increased in relation to the national average.
This is illustrated in Figure 4,which shows that the Alaska/United
states ratio of real disposable personal income,which historically
hovered around .8,climbed above one briefly in the mid-1970s.The
future direction of this indicator of the strength of the Alaskan
market will be an important determinant of economic growth.
Several other factors have contributed to the structural change
characterized by support sector growth.One is the increasing
stability of the marketplace as measured both by the decreasing
importance of seasonal and cyclical (associated wi th natural
resource extraction activities)variations in economic activity,and
by increas ing wealth of the population.This provides a cushion
which allows a region to support itself independent of wage and
salary income.Alaskafs personal income is more dependent on wages
and salaries.than most other states,but that dependence is
gradually falling as the proportion of income from other sources
increases.Between 1959 and 1980 that proportion more than doubled
from 9 to 19 percent.This increase in market stability makes
investment in support sector businesses less subject to the risks
associated with economic fluctuations.8
A second factor is indicated by Figure 5,which shows the
dramatic increase since statehood in the proportion of the civilian
population which is employed.9 Between 1961 and 1979,it
increased from 30 to 49 percent of the civilian population.This
accounts for the fact that personal income per capi ta has
historically grown more rapidly than the average wage rate
(Figure 3).This trend reflects a more market-oriented,
consumption-oriented economy which can sustain a larger support
sector.
One additional factor contributing to the growth of the support
sector has been the downward trend in the ratio of the cost of doing
business in Alaska relative to the U.s.average.Figure 6 shows
that this downward trend has been historically interrupted only
during the mid-1970s when Alyeska oil pipeline construction
generated local inflationary pressures in excess of the national
average.
SAn example of this new wealth is the ANCSA transfer of land
and money to the Alaska Natives.
9This measure is only an indication of the trend because
employment is by place of work and population is residence-based.
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-
-,
,,
I
FIG.3:AVG.ANNUAL WAGE &PER CAPITA INC.
(l967 U.S.$)
-
-
-
/\
j \
J \
/\
1/\
/'\
/\.,..-
./
~'
/'
~;
[,/
/--,//
-<r--/
/~
V ~
I /'...-
V--,.-/
/
.--/
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1~00
1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1958 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980
4500
10000
REAL INCOME 9500
PER CAPITA 9000
__8500
8000
REAL AVERAGE 7500
ANNUAL WAGE 7000
---65~0
6000
5500
5000
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FIG.4:REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
(ALASKA/US RATIO)
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
.-1.1
""'"1.0i
f"'"0.9
0.8
v/",
I '"I
/,/J '"I ,
/,1/,
~
,/
~
~
--------/
/
0,__~./-""--~"
r----__',
0.6
JI"'"0.5
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
~
l
i
15
100
90
60
50
40
30
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FIG.5:PERCENT OF CIVILIANS EMPLOYED
,----/-
l---..---
..-------~-
o
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969
16
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
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FIG.6:RATIO OF ANCHORAGE TO US CPI
~
~~1'\
1\/r--~
~I \1\
"--I~
I I1.~3
1958 1963 19£2 1964 1966 1969 1973 1972 1974 1976 1978 1983 1982
1.50
,....
1.45
1.43
1.35
1.30
1.25
II"'"
I 1.28iI
F"
1.15
II"'"
1.10
I"""
I l.ffi
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I'"'i
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In sum,the pattern of employment growth in
characteristic of an underdeveloped economy undergoing
change and rapid growth from a large number of causes.
Alaska is
structural
The problem of projecting future economic activity then becomes
one of sorting out those various factors contributing to past growth
and trying to determine both how they will change in the future and
how those changes will affect the growth trajectory of the economy.
The exercise is complicated by the p~or quality of the historical
record (which is a result of this underdevelopment and rapid
growth),which limits our understanding of the quantitative
dimensions of the growth in the past.
It should be clear from this short discussion that there is a
large degree of inherent uncertainty surrounding any projections of
the future size of the Alaskan economy,and that unanticipated rapid
economic change can easily occur.This uncertainty can be reduced,
but not eliminated,by further analysis of the past.
This phenomenon is vividly demonstrated by the unprecedented
growth of the Alaskan economy between 1980 and 1982.Primarily in
response to a more than doubling of oil prices in 1979,employment
increased 14 percent,and population 15 percent over the ensuing
two-year period.The magnitude of the increase was similar to the
growth when the Alyeska pipeline was under construction.Few,if
any,analysts anticipated the rapidi ty and magnitude of the
conversion of petroleum revenues into economic activity.Most
importantly,this illustrates the dependence of the economy on
natural resource indust~ies and the volatility that dependence
continues to impart to the whole economy.
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APPENDIX A
ISER MAP ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM
SCENARIO GENERATOR MODEL
DOCUMENTATION
Introduction A-1
A.l.Organization of the Library Archives
A.2.Using the Scenario Generator
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a.
b.
a.
b.
c.
Input File Archives--The Case Library (SCEN ) • • • •
Output File Archives--The Scenario Library (SCENARIO_)
Capabilities and Organization •
Instructions for Using &SCENGEN
An Example • • • • • • • • • •
A-3
A-6
A-7
A-9
A-9
A-10
A-ll
A.3.Creating,Manipulating,and Examining Library Files A-19
a.&SETUP ··.,·· ·
····· ····A-19
b.&MUNICASE ·.· ·······A-21
c.&DELCASE · ···A-2l
d.&DELSCN ·· ···A-22
e.&LKCASE and &OLKCASE A-22
f.&LKSCN and &OLKSCN ·· · ·
· · ·· ·
A-22
g.&ADCASE · ·
.· ·· · ·
.· ·
· · ···A-23
h.&SUBCASE · · · ·
·A-24
i.&LISTLIB ··· ·· ······ ·· · · · · ·
A-24r-j.&DESCLIB ······ · · ·
A-24
k.&DESCASE · · · · ···· · · · ·
A-25
L ©CASE · ······ ·
A-25
m.&CASECHEK ·A-25
n.&SCENCHEK ·.· ·
· · · ··A-26
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o.Introduction
.....The scenario generator model consists of a set of data files,
macros,and programs designed to create and manipulate a library of
the various assumptions required for a run of each of the three
major ISER models--the MAP statewide model version A83.2,the
regionalizationmodel version A83.CD,and the Anchorage Municipality
model version BIGMOD.
Part I documents the organization of data files in the archives
related to the scenario generation tasks.Part II describes the use
of the scenario generation macro in constructing a scenario.
Part III then describes a set of macros which have been developed
for conveniently manipulating,editing,and examining the files
contained in the library archives.
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A-l.Organization of the Library Archives
Each of the three ISER economic models requires a set of data
series corresponding to each of the variables treated as exogenous
by that model.The scenario generator model provides the mos t
important of those variables to each model.
Specifically,for use in a run of the MAP statewide model
version A83.2,the scenario generator provides a data series for
each of the sixteen (16)exogenous variables listed in Table A-l.
The scenario generator provides for use 1n a run of the
regionalization model A83.CD a set of assumed data series for each
of the forty (41))exogenous variables shown in Table A-2.
(Model A83.CD also requires output from a run of the MAP statewide
model A83.2.,although it would be possible to modify the model to
operate independently.)
Finally,the scenario generator provides for use 1n a run of the
Anchorage Municipality model BIGMOD a set of assumed data series for
the forty-s ix (46)exogenous variables shown in Table A-3.
Currently,a run of model BIGMOD requires output from a run of the
MAP statewide model A83.2,although it would be possible to modify
the model to operate independently.
TABLE A.l.EXOGENOUS VARIABLES REQUIRED FOR
MAP STATEWIDE MODEL RUN
Variable Name Description
.-
-
-
EMAGRI
EMP9
EMCNXl
EMCNX2
EMMXl
EMMX2
EMT9X
EMF ISH
EMGM
EMGC
RPTS
RPRY
RPBS
RPPS
RTCSPX
TOURIST
Agriculture Employment
Mining Employment
High Wage Exogenous Construction Employment
Low Wage Exogenous Construction Employment
High Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment
Low Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment
Exogenous Transportation Employment
Fish Harvesting Employment
Active Duty Military Employment
Civilian Federal Employment
State Production Tax Revenue
State Royalty Income
State Bonus Payment Revenue
State Property Tax Revenue
State Corporate Petroleum Tax Revenue
Tourists Entering Alaska
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TABLE A-2.EXOGENOUS VARIABLES REQUIRED FOR
REGIONALIZATION MODEL RUN
Variable
Bii
Gii
Description
Basic Sector Employment,Region ii
Government Sector Employment,Region ii
Where ii:
01 for Aleutian Islands CD
()2 for Anchorage CD
04 for Barrow/N.Slope CD
05 for Bethel CD
06 for Bristol Bay*
fJ8 for Cordova/McCarthy CD
09 for Fairbanks CD
11 for Southeast**
12 for Kenai/Cook Inlet CD
14 for Kobuk CD
15 for Kodiak CD
16 for Kuskokwim CD
17 for Matanuska/Susitna CD
18 for Nome CD
21 for Seward CD
24 for S.E.Fairbanks CD
25 for Upper Yukon CD
26 for Valdez/Chitina/Whittier CD
27 for Wade Hampton CD
29 for Yukon Koyukuk
*Includes Bristol Bay CD and Bristol Bay Borough CD.
**Includes:Angoon CD
Haines CD
Juneau CD
Ketchikan CD
Outer Ketchikan CD
Prince of Wales CD
Sitka CD
Skagway-Yakatat CD
Wrangell-Petersburg CD
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TABLE A-3.EXOGENOUS VARIABLES REQUIRED FOR RUN OF
ANCHORAGE MUNICIPALITY MODEL ANKMOD
Variable Description
Anchorage,Metal Mining
Anchorage,Oil &Gas Extraction
Anchorage,Nonmet'allic Minerals
Food Manufacturing
Textile Manufacturing
Paper Manufacturing
Petroleum &Coal
Military Personnel
Proprietors
Unclassified
Agr ic ul tllr e-
Museums &Gardens Svcs.
Private Households Svcs.
Federal Civilian Govt.
State Government
Local Government
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Forestry-Fisheries
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Mining
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Product Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work,Anchorage,Leather Product
Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work,Anchorage,Primary Metal
Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work,Anchorage,Electrical Equipment
Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work,Anchorage,Instrument Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work,Anchorage,Pipeline (Ex.Natural
Gas)Transport
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
M.33
M.2t>
M.22
M.26
M.29
M.10
M.13
M.14
M.36
M.3l
M.MIL
M.PRX
M.t>t>
M.M
M.38
M.46
M.84
M.88
M.9l
M.92
M.93
I""",
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r.MP.ss*Employment by Place of Work,Region r,Sector ss
r-
I
*Where r =B
C
D
E
F
G
Matanuska/Susitna Region (Matanuska/Susitna CD)
Southcentral Region (Kenai-Cook Inlet,Kodiak,Valdez/
Chitina/Whittier,Cordova/McCarthy,and Seward CDs)
Interior Region (Fairbanks,Yukon/Koyukuk,and
Upper Yukon CDs)
Southeast Region (Juneau,Ketchikan,Prince of Wales,
Sitka,Wrangell,Petersburg,and Lynn Canal CDs)
Northern Region (Barrow/North Slope,Kobuk,and Nome CDs)
Southwest Region (Aleutian Islands,Bethel,Bristol Bay,
Wade Hampton,and Kuskokwim CDs)
ss =Bl High Wage Basic Sector
B2 Low Wage Basic Sector
G9 Government Sector
PR Proprietor Sector
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These scenarios are composed of sets of individual assumptions,or
cases,each of which is itself an archive of individual component
assumptions.These individual components are filed in an archive
called SCEN ,which can be considered to be the library from which
scenarios ~y be constructed using the scenario generator.The,
scenario generator combines these cases according to user-specified
instructions into scenarios,which are then filed in an archive
called SCENARIO •The scenarios archived in SCENARIO may be used
directly in running the various ISER economic models.
a.Input File Archives--The Case Library (SCEN)
The SCEN archives contain sets of data files which will be
termed "cases."A "case"may be a particular exogenous development
project,such as the gas pipeline or the Alpetco refinery,or a
particular set of revenue estimates,such as those published by the
Alaska Department of Revenue,or an assumption concerning the
development of a component of an exogenous industry,such as
commercial fishing or agriculture.Each "case"has implications for
some subset of the exogenous variables in the ISER economic models.
A "case"consists of a set of data files,consisting of the
effects of that case on the exogenous variables in one or more of
the ISER economic models.In addition,each case contains an
additional data file called COMMENT,containing no data but rather a
comment which provides a short description and documentation of the
case.
Each case is given a user-specified name which becomes the name
of a sub-archive within the SCEN archive.The convention to be
used in giving such names is as follows:the name will take the form
ccc.nnn,where ccc is a three-digit code identifying the particular
case,such as an DCS sale,which would be called DCS.nnn,or Prudhoe
Bay field employment ,which would be called PRB.nnn.The final
three digits (nnn)are an identifier of the particular set of
assumptions employed to describe this case.For example,there may
be a series of PRB.nnn cases,each corresponding to a different set
of assumptions regarding the future development of Prudhoe Bay.
It should be noted that not all cases will be usable with all
models.For example,certain cases such as revenue assumptions may
affect only variables in the MAP statewide modeL On the other
hand,any cases which involve exogenous employment will typically
affect the exogenous variables in all three models,but information
may be inadequate to provide sufficient regional disaggregation to
use either the regionalization model or the municipality model.
Alternatively,the user may have sufficient information to
regionally disaggregate the statewide data to the level required by
BIGMOD,but not to the level required by A83.CD.Finally,there may
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be some cases which affect exogenous variables in the municipality
model but have no bearing on the statewide model (an example is
state and local government employment,which is endogenous to A83.2
but exogenous to BIGMOD).
In order to deal with such possibilities without having to set
up three special model-specific libraries in which there would be a
great deal of duplication,the comment file in each case should
include a list of the models with which the case may be
appropriately utilized.Many cases initially entered into the
library as "state"cases,usable only with the statewide mode 1
A81.7,may be gradually upgraded as more information and/or more
effort is put into disaggregating the data to a regional level
appropriate for use in one or both of the regional models.
b.Output File Archives--The Scenario Library (SCENARIO-)
Output of the scenario generation macro is filed in the
SCENARIO t.ddddd archive,where t is a one-digit code indicating
the model to which the scenario is appropriate (S =statewide A83.2,
C =-regionalization CDMBT,A =municipality BIGMOD).A type
S scenario archive contains the 16 data files listed in Table la;a
type C scenario archive contains the 40 data files listed in
Table lb;a type A scenario archive contains the 45 data files
listed in Table lc;and each contains an additional COMMENT file
which documents the scenario.
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A-2.Using the Scenario Generator
a.Capabilities and Organization
The scenario generator is simply an elaborate macro for
combining the various cases contained in the SCEN library archives
according to a variety of user-specified instructi~ns and filing the
resulting scenario in th~SCENARIO_library archives.
It expects input files in the format decribed above for the
SCEN library and produces output in the form of data files in the
format described above for the SCENARIO_library.
It permits the user to alter the timing of events described in
the individual case archives by moving the entire set of data series
forward or backward in time.
In addition to
automatically stored
generator,several
immediately following
the SCENARIO data
on disk following
online outputs are
a run.
files output which are
a run of the scenario
produced during and
After receiving all instructions from the user,the scenario
generator prints an acknowledgment that processing is beginning,of
the form:
GENERATING SCENARIO t.dddd
and presents the total of the number of cases it is about to process:
CONSISTS OF n CASES,as follows:
After which it presents a description of each case as it is
processed,consisting of the contents of the comment filed 1n the
COMMENT file for that case and an acknowledgment of any moves in the
timing of the case that have been made from that found in the SCEN
library archives.
Upon completion of processing,it prints the message
SCENARIO t.dddd FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
Finally,following this message,it will request
provide a written description of the scenario,which
as a comment in the COMMENT file corresponding
generated scenario.This request will be indicated by
NEW COMMENT:
that the user
wi 11 be filed
to the newly
the prompt:
at which point the user should type in a short description of the
scenario.This description may be more than one line,but the
prompt "NEW COMMENT:"will precede each line.Following completion
of the description,the user should type a semicolon ";"followed
by the command "FILE;".
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b.Instructions for Using &SCENGEN
The command &SCENGEN will activate the scenario generator,which
will proceed to ask the user a series of questions.First,the user
will be asked to provide the type and name for the scenario,with
the prompts:
-
SCENARIO TYPE (S,C,or A)
SCENARIO NAME:
Once this has
ask questions
scenario.The
CASE NAME:
been provided,the scenario
about each of the cases
first question,
generator will begin to
to be included in the
-
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it expects to be answered with one of the ccc .nnn names found ~n
the SCEN library.It then prompts:
START:
and expects the user to provide an integer representing the number
of years forward or backward in time that the case should be moved.
For example,if the user wishes to leave the timing of the case as
it is recorded in the library,he should respond with 0;if he
wishes to delay the case by two years,-2;or move it forward five
years,5;and so on.
After providing this information for the first case,the
computer will again give the prompt:
CASE NAME:
which it expects to be answered with the name of the second case,
followed by prompts for the start and type of the second case,and
so on.Currently,the user may specify as many as 97 cases to be
included in a scenario.Once all of the case information has been
entered,respond to the CASE NAME:prompt with a semicolon to
indicate the end of the input 1 ist.No further information is
required from the user until processing is completed,after which
the user will receive the prompt:
NEW COMMENT:
and should type in a short description of the scenario contents,
followed by a semicolon and the word "file",followed by a second
semicolon.
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c.An Example
Before beginning to generate a scenario,the user may want to
scan the cases in the SCEN library available for use ~n the
scenario.This can be done using the &LISTLIB comma~d,which
provides a complete listing of currently available cases,as follows:
&L ISTLIB
DATA SCEN AGR.SCM
BCF.003
BCL.04T
DOR.381
FLP.SCM
GFC.EPM
GFM.EPM
NPR.MOD
NWG.MGl
OCS.BFM
OCS .55X
OCS.57X
OCS .60X
OCS.70L
OCS.11M
OCS.75H
OCS.75L
OCS.75M
OCS.751
OCS.754
OCS.755
OMN.EPH
PRB.08l
TAP.XXX
TCF .001
TRS.MOD
UPC .011
.....
-
--I
If the user is unfamiliar with one or more of these cases,he may
use the &DESCASE or &DESCLIB commands explained in the following
section •
After decidirig on the cases he wishes to include in the
scenario,the user proceeds to invoke the scenario generator with
the &SCENGEN command.
In this example,we generate a scenario for use with statewide
model A83.2 called S.TESTl,consisting of 14 cases selected from the
27 available cases in the SCEN library.Note that we have changed
the timing of two of those cases:OCS.60X has been moved forward
4 years,and NWG.MGl has been moved back 1 year.After completing
the questions for the desired cases,the user responds with a
semicolon.
A-ll
TROLL COMMAND:.&SCENGEN
TYPE OF SCENARIO (S,C,or A):S
NAME OF SCENARIO:
PROJECT CODE:.AGR.SCM
START:.O
CASE NAME:.BCF.003
START:.O
CASE NAME:.DOR.381
START:.O
CASE NAME:.FLP.SCM
START:.0
CASE NAME:.GFC.EPM
START:.O
CASE NAME:.GFM.EPM
START:.O
CASE NAME:.OCS.SSX
START:.O
CASE NAME:.OCS.BFM
START:.O
CASE N&~:.OCS.60X
START:.4
CASE NAME:.OMN.EPH
START:.0
CASE NAME:.TAP.XXX
START:.0
CASE NAME:.TCF.OOl
START:.O
CASE NAME:.TRS.MOD
START:.O
CASE NAME:.NWG.MGl
START:.-l
CASE NAME:.J.
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The computer will now begin processing the required cases.As it
completes each case,it provides a description of the case,as
follows:
GENERATING SCENARIO TESTl
CONSISTS OF 14 CASES AS FOLLOWS:
CASE AGR.SCM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN AGR.SCM COMMENT -
MODERATE CASE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT FROM
GOLDSMITH AND PORTER,ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
FOR THE RAILBELT,ISER,10/81,P.A-75
CASE BCF.003
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN BCF.003 COMMENT -
BOTTOMFISHING EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES PREPARED BY
GUNNAR KNAPP FOR OCS SALE 75 STUDY,FEB 1982
.CASE DOR.381
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN DOR.381 COMMENT -
THIRD QUARTER 1981 PETROLEUM PRODUCTION REVENUE
FORECAST,ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE,9/81
CASE FLP.SCM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN FLP.SCM COMMENT -
LUMBER MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
ASSUMES TIMBER OUTPUT RISING TO 960 MILLION
BOARD FEET BY THE YEAR 2000.
A-13
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May 1983
CASE GFC ••EPM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN GFC.EPM COMMENT -
FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
ASSUMED TO GROW AT HISTORICAL RATE OF 0.5 %
ANNUALLY THROUGH 2000
CASE GFM.EPM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN.GFM.EPM COMMENT -
FEDERAL MILITARY EMPLOYMENT
ASSUMED CONSTANT AT CURRENT LEVEL (1979)
CASE OCS.55X
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN OCS.55X COMMENT -
DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING OCS SALE 55,EASTERN GULF OF AK
ASSUMES ONLY EXPLORATION EMPLOYMENT,NO DISCOVERIES OF
COMMERCIAL OIL OR GAS
FROM USDOI,BLM AK OCS OFFICE,EASTERN GULF OF AK:
FINAL EIS :PROPOSED FEDERAL OIL AND GAS LEASE SALE 55,
TABLE E-2,P .A-1
CASE OCS.BFM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN OCS.BFM COMMENT -
DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING JOINT FED/STATE OCS SALE BF
ASSUMES DISCOVERY OF .75 BBO AND 1.625 TCFG
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO FROM USDOI,BLM AK OCS OFFICE,
BEAUFORT SEA FINAL EIS :PROPOSED FEDERAL/STATE OIL AND
GAS LEASE SALE
A-14
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May 1983
CASE OCS.60X
MOVED 4 YEARS
SCEN OCS.60X COMMENT -
DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING OCS SALE 60,LOWER COOK INLET
ASSUMES ONLY EXPLORATION EMPLOYMENT,NO DISCOVERIES OF
COMMERCIAL OIL OR GAS
FROM:
USDOI,BLM AK OCS OFFICE,LOWER COOK INLET,FINAL EIS
PROPOSED FEDERAL OIL AND GAS LEASE SALE 60
CASE OMN.EPH
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN OMN.EPH COMMENT -
OTHER MINING EMPLOYMENT
MINING SECTOR EMPLOYMENT NOT ACCOUNTED FOR BY OTHER
SPECIFIC,PROJECTS.ASSUMED TO INCREASE AT 1%ANNUALLY
FROM ITS 1979 ACTUAL LEVEL
CASE TAP.XXX
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN TAP.XXX COMMENT -
TRANS-ALASKA PIPELINE EMPLOYMENT
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAPS PIPELINE
FROM:.
GOLDSMITH AND PORTER,ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
FOR THE RAILBELT,ISER,10/81 2
P.A-G.
A-IS
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
CASE TCF.001
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN TCF.001 COMMENT -
TRADITIONAL COMMERCIAL FISHING
INCLUDES NON-BOTTOMFISHING EXISTING COMMERCIAL
FISHING AND PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT HELD AT 1979
LEVELS FOR PERIOD THROUGH 2000.
1979 LEVEL ESTIMATED FROM PROJECTION OF ESTIMATES
PROVIDED IN :ROGERS,MEASURING THE SOCIOECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF ALASKAS FISHERIES,ISER,APRIL,1980.
CASE TRS.MOD
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN TRS.MOD COMMENT -
TOURISM
NUMBER OF TOURISTS ENTERING ALASKA.ASSUMED
TO GROW AT 4%ANNUALLY FROM ACTUAL VALUE IN 1979
FROM:
GOLDSMITH AND PORTER,ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
FOR THE RAILBELT,ISER,10/81,
P.A-102
CASE NWG.MG1
MOVED -1 YEARS
SCEN NWG.MG1 COMMENT -
ALASKA NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
FROM:
MOGFORD AND GOLDSMITH,THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ALASKA
NATURAL GAS PIPELINE AND STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
EXPENDITURES,ISER,1980
A-16
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
After processing all
indicates that processing
description from the user.
of
has
the requested cases,the
terminated and requests a
computer
scenario
r
The user types in a description,followed by a semicolon and a
file command.
SCENARIO S.TESTI FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
NEW COMMENT:.THIS IS A TEST CASE TO TRY OUT THE NEW SCENARIO GENERATOR
NEW COMMENT:.;FILE;
TROLL COMMAND:•
To generate scenarios for use with the regionalization model
A83.Cn or the municipality model BIGMOn,the user would follow the
same procedure,except that the response to the prompt "TYPE OF
SCENARIO:"would be C or A,as appropriate,and the user would have
to take care that the list of cases used are appropriate for use
with the C or A model.(Currently~all cases in the SeEN library
are usable for constructing type S or C scenarios but need to be
disaggregated for use in type A scenarios.)
A-17
A-18
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May 1983
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
A-3.Creating,Manipulating,and Examining Library Files
A variety of macros have been developed to perform several
common operations on the library files.This section describes the
functions and use of these macros.
The macros currently available are:
,....
&SETUP
&MUNICASE
&DELCASE
&DELSCN
&LKCASE
&OLKCASE
&LKSCN
&OLKSCN
&ADCASE
&SUBCASE
&LISTLIB
&DESCLIB
&DESCASE
©CASE
&CASECHEK
&SCENCHEK
This section provides a short description and examples of each
of these macros.
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a.&SETUP
In order to establish a "case ,"it would be possible to use a
series of DEDIT commands in TROLL to input each of the affected data
s,eries.However,insofar as the scenario generator requires data
files extending over the 1960-2030 range,this process would
normally involve inputting a large number of zero values.Macro
&SETUP is designed to make this input task simpler by setting up the
affected series with zero values over the 1960-2030 range and
permitting the user to replace the nonzero values of the series.
Example:[A 100,000 BPD refinery project in Valdez requires
construction employment of 752 persons for three years
beginning in 1983.Thereafter,it employs 386 persons for
ten years.]
We will name this case ALP.1DO,indicating a 100,000 BPD
version of the Alpetco proposal.'
two variables in the statewide model,
To prepare a case for use in constructing
use with the statewide model,the following
This project affects
namely EMCNX2 and EMMX1.
an "S"type scenario for
commands would suffice.
A-19
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP
CASE NAME:ALP.100
VARIABLE NAME:EMCNX2
YEAR:1983
1983 •7 52 •752 •7 52 ;FILE;
TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP
CASE NAME:ALP.100
VARIABLE NAME:EMMX1
YEAR:1986
1986 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .1..
FILE;
To upgrade the case for use with the regionalization model,
notice that the project is located entirely in Valdez and,
consequently,affects only the variable B26.The case may be
upgraded by the following commands.
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TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP
CASE NAME:ALP.100
VARIABLE NAME:B26
YEAR:1983
1983 .752 .752 .752 .386 .386
1991 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386
.386 .386
;FILE;
.386 -
To further upgrade the case for use with the municipality model,
notice that the project affects only the variable C.MP.Bl in BIGMOD.
Consequently,the case may be further upgraded by the following
sequence:
TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP
CASE NAME:ALP.100
VARIABLE NAME:C.MP.B1
YEAR:1983
1983 .752 .752 .752 .386 .386
1991 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386
.386 .386
;FILE;
.386
Finally,the user should add a comment to archive SCEN ALP.lOa
in the form of a file named COMMENT whose "c onnnentII contains a
description of the case just input,as follows:
TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP
CASE NAME:ALP.100
VARIABLE NAME:COMMENT
NEW COMMENT:CASE IS A 100,000 BPD VERSION OF THE ALPETCO PROPOSAL,
SUITED FOR USE IN TYPE S,C,OR A SCENARIOS ;FILE;
A-20
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
b.&MUNICASE
The &MUNICASE macro takes a case which contains variables for
type Sand C scenarios and adds to it non-Anchorage data files for
type A scenarios (any files containing data for Anchorage should be
added using the &SETUP macro).
Example:The user wants to
currently suited only for type S
type A scenarios.
&MUNICASE
make
and C
case ABC.001,which
scenarios,suitable
1S
for
SCEN CASE NAME:ABC.001
DATA SCEN ABC.001 COMMENT
EMCNX1
B04
FIRST BASIC,SECOND BASIC,OR COMBINED CASE (F,S,OR C)?l F
-
1A first basic case is one that contains
any of the variables in column A (right),but
none in column B.A second basic case is one
EMCNX1 EMMX1
that contains variables in column B,but none
EMCNX2 EMMX2
in A.A combined case is one that contains
EMP9 EMAGRI
variables from both columns.
EMT9X EMF ISH
c.&DELCASE
A B
"...,,
The &DELCASE macro deletes all files associated with the
particular case specified by the user.
Example:Case ABC.001 is found to be 1n error or of no further
value.To delete it,say:
&DELCASE
CASE TO BE DELETED:ABC.001
~A-21
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
d.&DELSCN
The &DELSCN macro deletes all files associated with the
particular SCENARIO archive specified by the user.
Example:Scenario S.TESTl
To delete it,say:
&DELSCN
1S found to be of no further value.
-
SCENARIO TO BE DELETED:S.TESTl
e.&LKCASE and &OLKCASE
In order to examine all of the variables in each case archive,
two macros are available.Macro &LKCASE prints out all variables at
the terminal.Macro &OLKCASE prints out the same tables offline at
MIT.
Example:To print out case ABC.OOl offline.
&OLKCASE
CASE NAME:ABC.OOl
f.&LKSCN and &OLKSCN
In order to examine all of the variables in a SCENARIO archive,
two macros are available.Macro &LKSCN prints out all variables at
the terminal.Macro &OLKSCN prints out all variables offline at
MIT.
Example:To print out scenario S.TESTl at the terminal,
&LKSCN
NAME OF SCENARIO:S.TESTl
A-22
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May 1983
g.&ADCASE
If the user wishes to add a single case to a scenario without
rerunning the entire scenario generator,he or she may do so using
macro &ADCASE.
It requests the name of the SCENARIO archive to which the case
will be adOed,the name of the incrementing case,the number of
years the case is to be moved,the type of scenario,and a name for
the new scenario.Upon completing the processing,it will request a
description of the new scenario from the user.The user types in
the new description,followed by a semicolon and a file command.
Example:You want to add case ABC.001 to scenario S.TESTl and
call the new scenario TEST2.
&ADCASE
OLD SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TEST1
INCREMENTING SCEN ARCHIVE:ABC .001
START:0
TYPE OF SCENARIO (S,C,or A):S
NEW SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TEST2
SCENARIO S.TEST1 INCREMENTED BY
CASE ABC.OOl
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN ABC.001 COMMENT
SAMPLE CASE TO TEST THE SCENARIO GENERATOR
SCENARIO S.TEST2 FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
NEW COMMENT:SCENARIO S.TEST1 INCREMENTED
NEW COMMENT:BY CASE ABC.001
NEW COMMENT:;FILE;
A-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
h.&SUBCASE
If the user wishes to subtract a single case from a scenario
without rerunning the scenario generator,he or she may do so using
macro &SUBCASE,which operates in a manner analogous to &A.DCASE
above.
.
Example:You want to take case ABC.OOl out of scenar~o S.TEST2
and call the new scenario TEST1.
&SUBCASE
OLD SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TEST2
DE CREMENTING SCEN ARCHIVE:ABC .001
START:0
TYPE OF-SCENARIO (S,C,or A):S
NEW SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TESTl
SCENARIO S.TEST2 DECREMENTED BY
CASE ABC.OOl
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN ABC.OOl COMMENT
SAMPLE CASE TO TEST THE SCENARIO GENERATOR
SCENARIO S.TESTl FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
NEW COMMENT:SCENARIO S.TEST2 DECREMENTED
NEW COMMENT:BY CASE ABC.OOl
NEW COMMENT:;FILE;
i.&L ISTL IB
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Lists
generator.
the currently available
Require no arguments.
cases for use by the scenario
j.&DESCLIB
Lists the comments associated with all available cases in the
SCEN_library.Requires no arguments.
A-24
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
k.&DESCASE
Lists the comments associated with a particular case in the
SCEN_library.
Example:The user is unfamiliar with case ABC.OOI and wants a
description of its contents.
&DESCASE
CASE NAME:
1.©CASE
ABC.OOI
Copies all or part of a user-specified case.
,....
Example:The user wants to copy one of the three files in
case ABC.OOL
©CASE-OLD CASE NAME:ABC.OOI
THE VARIABLES IN CASE ABC.OOI ARE:
DATA SCEN ABC.OOI COMMENT
EMCNXI
BI4
NEW CASE NAME:ABC.002
VARIABLES TO BE COPIED,SEPARATED BY SPACES,
1"""1i FOLLOWED BY SEMICOLON EMCNXI;
m.&CASECHEK
The &CASECHEK macro verifies that the type S,C,?nd A
components of a case are all consistent.The macro prints a table
showing the total non-Anchorage employment assumptions for each type.
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May 1983
Example:The user wants to check that case ABC.001 ~s
consistent for use in all three mode1s--A83.2,A83.CD,and BIGMOD.
&CASECHEK
CASE NAMES,SEPARATED BY SPACES,FOLLOWED BY SEMICOLON ABC.001;
n.&SCENCHEK
The &SCENCHEK macro verifies that a type C and a type A scenario
which contain identical case files are consistent.The macro prints
a table showing the total non-Anchorage employment assumptions for
each type.
Example:The user wants to verify that C type scenario C.TEST1
and A type scenario A.TEST1,which contain the same cases,are
consistent.
&SCENCHEK
REGIONAL MODEL SCENARIO ARCHIVE:C.TEST1
MUN I MODEL SCENARIO ARCHI VE :A.TES Tl
A-26
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APPENDIX B
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL MODULES
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
F'B .l.Introduction . .· ···· · ·
. ..B-1
B.2.Economic Module Description ·B-5,...
i B.3.Fiscal Module Description B-31.·· ·
B.4.Input Variables .···· ·
B-63
B.S.Variable and Parameter Name Conventions ·.B-68
B .6.Parameter Values ········.·B-73
B.7.Model Validation and Properties ·B-79
r-B.8.Input Data Sources B-95····
B.9.Programs for Model Use B-105
B.10.Model Adjustments for Simulation · ·
.·B-107
r-B.ll.Key to Regressions ··· · ·
.·B-lll
i
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i and Economic ResearchI
MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.1.Introduction
This section describes the core of the Institute for Social and
Economic Research (ISER)Man-in-the-Arctic Program (MAP)Alaska
Economic Model.It consists of modules representing the economic
and fiscal structure of the state.The model also includes two
demographic components--popu1ation and household formation
modu1es--described in separate appendices.A scenario generator
model provides input for running the model.The ISER MAP Alaska
Economic Model was developed at the University of Alaska in the
early 1970s under a grant from the National Sc ience Foundation.
Since its original use to demonstrate the economic,demographic,and
fiscal impacts on Alaska of different schedules of federally imposed
petroleum development scenarios,it has been used in a variety of
types of analyses.These range from analyzing the economic and
fiscal effects of specific private sector projects,to the analysis
of the implications of different aggregate state wealth management
strategies,to the projection of likely economic futures for -the
state to assist in electricity load forecasting.
These uses reflect the fact that the MAP model is designed for
and primarily used for long-run policy analyses,impact analyses,
and projections.The analyses are not predictions,but rather "what
if"experiments.As such,the model has a different structure from
one designed specifically for prediction.Whereas a model designed
for prediction may not place a priority on describing how an economy
works,a policy analysis model such as the MAP model will trade off
some predictive ability for the more useful attribute of accurately
reflecting within its structure how the economy works.
,...
I
i
I
Because it is a long-run model,furthermore,the MAP model is
not concerned with capturing all the short-run fluctuations which
affect the economy over the course of the business cycle (or the
seasons)•Rather,the model attempts to capture the underlying
structural changes affecting the longer-run growth trajectory of the
state.For this purpose,the other types of regional models in
common use--economic base models and input-output mode1s--are
inadequate.
The economic base model is the easiest type of model to
construct and use,requi~ing in its simplest formulation only that
the basic and nonbasic sectors of the economy be identified by one
of several established techniques.The ratio of nonbasic to basic
activity becomes the estimate of activity which would be generated
by an increase in basic activity.The simplicity of the model means
that it can be widely used,but only for a narrow range of state
analyses.All variations of economic activity are assumed to
originate in changes in basic sector ac tivity and the ratio of
nonbasic to basic activity is assumed constant.Neither assumption
makes sense for the analysis of economic growth in Alaska.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The input-output model provides much more detail on the
interrelationships among industries within a regional economy and
can trace the impact of a change in basic sector activity in much
greater detail than an economic base model.Differential impacts
from changes in different sectors of the economy can be traced.
Data requirements are the largest problem in model implementation,
although techniques have been developed to regionalize input-output
models and make them transferable from region to region.The basic.
conceptual problems with input-output models are the assumption of
constant coefficients over time and the fact that all economic
change originates in the export sector.Constant coefficients for
interindustry flows and interregional trade flows assume away
economies of scale,other types of agglomeration economies such as
urbanization,technological change,and import substitution.
Input-output analysis is better suited for economies more mature
than Alaska which have significant interindustry flows in
manufacturing.Most Alaskan industry involves the extraction and
exporting of natural resources or support activities such as trade
and services.Neither is amenable to input-output analysis.
Econometric models offer much more flexibility in modeling
regions than either economic base or input-output-type models in the
sense that they can incorporate other facets of growth into the
analysis.They can include the ideas from economic base and
input-output models,but in addition they can treat other sources of
growth and the evolution of the regional economy over time as it
changes form.Some of these capabilities inc 1ude the ability to
handle a changing ratio of basic-to-nonbasic employment,to
incorporate a fiscal sector into the model of the economy,to
include relative regional prices in the model,and to handle the
determination of personal income and popuation based on activity
within the region.The more comprehensive modeling approach also
forces consistency and independent checks into any analysis.
To illustrate the importance of the evolution of the economy
over time,Figure B.1 shows the growth since 1960 of the economy as
measured by four categories of employment.One may disagree over
the proper classification of an industry as basic or nonbasic,but
it is clear that the relationship between basic and support sector
employment has changed dramatically over the years.Any long-run
analysis done in 1960 using an economic base or input-output model
projecting into the future would have vastly underestimated actual
growth.In the same manner,it would underestimate the level of
impacts in a growing economy.This type of misunderstanding was
definitely a factor in the underestimation of impacts for all
a priori analyses of the A1yeska pipeline.
B-2
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HAP Documentation
May 1983
FIG.2:ALASKA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
(THOUSANDS)
75
,.,..
I
5B
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I"""
I-
""'-.-",-
I--
/
-7
/-"/"""'-/r---,__i.....-------
"""'-c ~UPPC RT /
",-.:I,
---//,....-/f-,.---".........---
---v"-----...~"....
bOVEF NMEf\T /
v I--~i
I---~"
t.----/'
f...----.------\.--..~-
-------ri\r~RAC::ITO!Ir trt IOe:-~
1--------_.---L7 ~l---
--'"'"SASI~
l-
I-
I~
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
225
175
125
150
r
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r B-3
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
The choice of model type is based upon uses anticipated for the
model.The choice of actual structure depends upon this factor as
well as the data which is available and the perceptions of economic
interrelationships by the model builder.Both of these factors
change over time,and,consequently,the model structure 1S
constantly evolving in a way which maintains 'and improves its
ability to analyze regional economic issues for a rapidly changing
economy.The fact that the Alaskan economy is relatively
underdeveloped by national standards makes analysis more subject to
error than in a larger,more mature economy where the size and
stability of the sectors provide not only a more stable track record
of past change against which to analyze the future but also the
confidence that change will continue to be gradual.
In Alaska,economic change has been and will continue to be
dramatic and abrupt.Analysis of past events and relationships do
not always provide clear guides to future relationships.
Consequently,policy analyses using any Alaskan economic model must
recognize and accept a larger degree of uncertainty than elsewhere
as well as the fact that different interpretations can be placed
upon past events which have different future implications.Three
particular areas where this is true are (1)the relationship between
employment and population,(2)the growth of support relative to
basic sector activity,and (3)the impact of state and local
government on the economy.
B-4
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.2.Description of the Economic Module
of the MAP Economic Model
Surmnary
The level of economic activity is a function of both export and
support-oriented production.The output in the export sectors is
determined exogenously while that of the support sectors is a
func tion of local demand,reflec ted by disposable personal ~ncome
and wealth.Export and support production generate wages and
salaries which form the major portion,after personal taxes are
deduc ted,of disposable personal income.Thus,demand and supply
are simultaneously determined each year.
The export sectors are portions of the following two-digit SIC
categories:agriculture-forestry-fisheries,manufacturing,federal
government,petroleum and other mining,transportation,and
construction related to these activities.Tourism crosses sectoral
boundaries and is also exogenous.All other sectors are classified
as support.State and local government output is an important
component of economic activity,which is determined by policy choice.
The Alaskan economy is linked to the national economy through
the average U.S.weekly wage,the U.S.consumer price index,the
unemployment rate,and real disposable personal income per capita.
The Alaskan versions of these variables are related to their
national counterparts but are strongly affected by local conditions
such as excess labor demand.
The close transport link to the contiguous United States means
that the supplies of most inputs are infinitely elastic..Thus,a
change in demand does not directly affect the price level of these
inputs which are not locally supplied.Labor and natural resources
are locally supplied and thus changes in demand do affect price,
particularly for labor in the short run.In the long run the supply
of labor is also infinitely elastic.
Data for model construction comes primarily from the Alaska
Department of Labor employment statistics,the U.S.Department of
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis personal income statistics,and
the gross-product-by-industry series developed by the Institute of
Social and Economic Research.
B-5
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Introduction
The structure of the economic module of the MAP model (as well
as the population and household modules)is illustrated in highly
simplified form in Figure B.2.In general terms t the model proceeds
sequentially to estimate industrial output t industry employment t
wages and salaries t and finally real disposable personal income.
However t the outputs of certain industries are themselves dependent
on the level of personal income.Because of this interrelationshipt
total output and income are simultaneously determined in the model.
For example t an increase in personal income t by increasing the
demand for services t leads to increased output of the service
sector.The extra output will t in turn t require additional workers t
and the wages and salaries paid to these workers will add further to
personal income.Thus t the process has come full circlet
demonstrating that industrial output and personal income are indeed
simultaneously interdependent.
The model uses several different approaches in determining the
level of production in each industrial sector..This reflects the
fact that the relevant causal mechanisms vary significantly from one
industrial sector to another.In determ{ning production levels t the
model classifies industrial sectors into three broad categories:
(1)those industries whose output is determined primarily by outside
factors t (2)those industries whose output is determined by policy
decisions t and (3)those industries whose output responds to changes
in the level of economic activity within Alaska.These categories
are t however t not mutually exclusive.Several of Alaska's important
industries have their outputs determined by combinations of the
above fac tors.
The principal industries whose output is determined by outside
forces are forestrYt fisheries t agriculture t tourism t and the
federal government.Production levels in forestry and fisheries t
Alaska's traditional resource-based industries t are determined by
factors such as prices on world markets t supplies of natural
resources t and policy decisions made by the federal and state
governments concerning the appropriate utilization rates for
Alaska's natural resources.Agriculture t now and in the future,is
severely constrained by Alaska's harsh climate.Within the limits
imposed by the climate t agricultural output in Alaska is determined
by factors such as the availability of suitable land t prices of
agricultural products t and government transportation policies.
Tourism is constrained by the demand created by tourists from the
United States and abroad t a demand which t nonetheless,can be
stimulated by an improvement in the quantity and quality of tourist
facilities.In addition to its regulatory and general policy-making
role t the federal government sector has been,and undoubtedly will
continue to bet a major direct element in the Alaska economy.The
level of federal activity is determined primarily by national needs t
with dec isions concerning national defense playing a particularly
important role.ClearlYt the decisions affecting federal activity
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MAP ECONOMIC MODEL STRUCTURE
r
r
I
[
r
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BASIC SECI DRS
Forestry
Fisheries
Federal govt.
Agricu Iture
Manuf.for export
Mining
Tourism
/------
/
!
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1
Alaska
Households
State
and
Local
Govt.
1-1----1:>etrol eu m
t-I
Construction
Persun,,1
Consumer
Prices
B-7
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SUPPORT SECTORS
Trade
Finance
Services
Transportation
Commu n icat io ns
Manufacturing
Public utilities
Persolla!
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in Alaska are influenced to only a minor extent by economic
conditions within Alaska.
The petroleum industry is also largely controlled by forces
outside the Alaska economy;but because of its importance,it is
given special and much more detailed treatment.Petroleum
employment and output are projected in accordance with detailed
petroleum development scenarios.On the basis of present
information,Alaska I s petroleum resources appear to be potentially
so vast and so widespread that there are countless alternative ways
in which these.resources might be developed.
In contrast to the industries influenced primarily by outside
forces or policy decisions,the output of the support sector
industries (consisting of trade,finance,services,transportation,
communication,public utilities,local-serving manufacturing,and
proprietors)is produced to meet local demands and thus responds to
changes in the level of economic activity in Alaska.It is clear
that there has been a close link between personal income and support
sector output in the past,and this relationship has remained stable
over time.
The cause of this relationship is the fact that a major portion
of the demand for support sector output comes from the household or
consumer sector.The trade,finance (including real estate),and
service industries are very closely linked to the spending decisions
of Alaska households.Thus,there is a c lear causal mechanism
producing an increase in support sector output in response to an
increase in real personal income.Any action,public or private,
which adds to personal income will induce an expansion in support
sector output.To reflect this,support sector output in the model
is generally made a function of Alaska real disposable personal
income and real wealth.
Analyses indicate that in most instances the output of the
support sector industries increases more than in proportion to the
increase in personal income.That is,ff personal income rises
1 percent,the output of the typical support sector industry
increases by somewhat more than 1 percent.There are two separate
factors which operate to produce this result.First,other studies
show that in the postwar years,the service sector in the u.S.
economy has tended to expand relative to other industries.
Consumers have been devoting an increasing share of their total
expenditures to the purchase of various kinds of services.It is
not surprising to observe this same phenomenon in the Alaska economy.
The second factor causing the relatively rapid rise in support
sector output is more specific.to the Alaska situation.As the
Alaska economy expands,it becomes feasible to have more of the
support ~ector output produced locally rather than imported from the
Lower 48.The trade,finance,and service industries in particular
benefit from the general expansion in the size of the Alaska
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economy.The share of output produced locally tends to increase
relative to the share supplied from the outside.As a result,the
rate of growth in the output of these industries is greater than the
rate of growth in total consumer expenditures or total personal
~ncome.
The output of the construction industry is determined by a
combination of internal and external factors.Part of construction
activity is designed to supply the needs of the expanding Alaska
economy.As in the support sector,this portion of construction
output is made a function of real disposable personal income.An
increase in personal income and the associated rise in general
economic activity produce an increase in the demand for the
construction of both residential and commercial structures.A
second part of construction supplies the needs of state government
capital spending.In addition to the construction required by the
general expansion in economic activity,there is likely to be
considerable construction activity involved in the building of
pipelines,terminals,and other facilities required for petroleum
production and other industrial development.This portion of
construction output is exogenously determined in accordance with the
relevant development scenario.
Proceeding sequentially,after output has been determined in
each of the major industrial sectors,the next step in the model is
to calculate industry employment.A statistical relationship
derived from the Alaska data is used in most industries to project
industry employment as a function of industry 6utput.This
relationship can be interpreted as a demand-for-1abor equation;it
specifies the number of workers required to produce a given level of
industry output.The supply of labor in Alaska is effectively
brought into balance with the demand through the process of
migration.When an expansion in economic activity raises the demand
for labor,new workers migrate into the state to take advantage of
the additional job opportunities.Past experience,most recently in
connection with the construction of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline,
indicates that the supply of labor adjusts quite quickly.With the
supply of labor being so flexible,it is the demand for labor which
deterines the actual levels of employment in most industries in the
Alaska economy.Table B.1 shows in detail the industry
classifications currently ~n use in the model.
There are,however,a few industries for which a different
procedure is used to project industry employment.This occurs where
there is no discernible systematic relationship between output and
employment such as in petroleum and fish harvesting.It seems
apparent,for example,that the number of persons who choose to
engage in commercial fishing is determined primarily by factors such
as culture,tradition,and personal preference,rather than by
purely economic factors.
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TABLE B.1.EMPLOYMENT VARIABLES USED IN
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL
Variable Name
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TABLE B.l.(continued)
Variable Name
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
Civilian
Militarya
STATE-LOCAL GOVERNMENT
State
Local
AGRI CULTURE-FORESTRY-F ISHERY
(and Unclassified)
Fishing
Agriculture
Unclassified
Forestry
PROPRIETOR a
Nonfish Harvesting
Fish Harvesting
TOTAL CIVILIAN
TOTAL NON-AGRICULTURAL WAGE &SALARY
TOTAL NON-AGRICULTURAL WAGE &SALARY
PLUS MILITARY
GRAND TOTAL
SPECIAL CATEGORIES
EMGF
EMGC
EMGM
EMGA
EMGS
EMGL
EMA9
EMAFISH
EMAGRI
PC39A
(PC39B *EMMX2)
EMPRO
EMPROl
EMPROFIS
EM96
EM97
EM98
EM99
aThese are categories not covered in employment data of state
Department of Labor.
"""
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FISH HARVESTING
Proprietor fish harvesting
Salaried fish harvesting
TOURISM
Transporation
Trade
Services
EMPROFIS
EMAFISH
EMTTOUR
EMDTOUR
EMS TOUR
EMF ISH
EMTOUR
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May 1983
Economic activity in the state and local government sector ~s
determined ultimately by government policies.Although economic
conditions in Alaska certainly influence the decision process,the
process itself is essentially political rather than economic in
nature.Since the art of modeling is not nearly so advanced as to
enab le adequate simulation of the political dec ision process,the
decisions are specified outside the model by a set of "fiscal
rules."What is included in the model is a set of relationships
that trace out the economic implications of the alternative
political decisions.Indeed,one of the principal functions of the
MAP model is to projec t the outcomes associated with alternative
social choices.The relationships in the model are,therefore,
designed so that they can be readily altered to reflect alternative
policy choices at each step in the decision process.
Following the determination of industry output and employment,
the next major element in the model is the calculation of industry
wage rates.Average wages in each industry are made a function of
average earnings in the United States,the cost of living in Alaska,
and the "tightness"of the Alaska labor market.Since the cost of
living in Alaska is linked to U.S.prices,the net effect is that
wage rates in Alaska are very closely related to wages and prices in
the United States as a whole.It would be impossible for it to be
otherwise so long as Alaska is open to migration to and from the
Lower 48.If wages in Alaska became excessively high relative to
the rest of the United States,large numbers of workers would
migrate into the state,thus tending to force wages down.
Conversely,if wages in Alaska were too low,there would be a
shortage of labor,tending to force wages up.Thus,over the long
run,Alaska wages have to maintain some sort of reasonable
relationship with wages in the United States as a whole.
The final piece of industry information generated by the model
is total wage and salary payments.Total earnings in each industry
are computed by multiplying the industry wage rate times industry
employment.To review,this makes four pieces of information that
are provided on an annual basis for each industry in the model:
(1)real output,(Z)employment,0)wage rates,and (4)wage and
salary payments.
After wages and salaries are calculated for each industry,the
figures are combined to estimate total wage earnings in the Alaska
economy as a whole.This forms the basis for estimating the
personal income available to Alaska residents.Although wages and
salaries are by far the largest single component.personal income
also includes interest.dividends,rental income,proprietors'
income,and miscellaneous other labor income.For the United
States.these nonwage components make up about a third of total
personal income.The elements of personal income are shown in
Table B.Z.In Alaska,the nonwage components are less significant
and make up less than ZO percent of personal income,although they
are growing.
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TABLE B.2.PERSONAL INCOME VARIABLES USED IN
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL
Variable Name
Wage and salary disbursements WS98
-Plus:Other labor income PIOLI
Proprietors'income
fishery proprietor income
nonfishery proprietor income
PIPRO
PIPROF
PIPROl
Equals:Total labor and proprietor income by
place of work (total earnings)PITE
Minus:Personal contributions to Social Security PISSC
Equals:Net labor and proprietors income by
place of work (net earnings)PINE
Plus:Residence adjustment PlRADJ
State income-related taxes
Local income-related taxes
Minus:Federal income-related taxes
Equals:Disposable personal income
PINERADJ
PIDIR
PITRAN
PI
PI3
PIa
RTPIF
RTISCP
DPIRES
DPI
Transfers
Dividends,interest,and rent
Equals:Net labor and proprietors'income by
place of residence (net earnings)
Equals:Personal income by place of residence
net of enclave employee
(EMCNX1)income
plus residence adjustment
Plus:
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Disposable personal income is derived from the estimate of
personal income--the difference between the two measures being
personal tax and nontax payments.Personal taxes in the United
States amount to about 15 percent of personal income.This ratio is
somewhat higher for Alaska because of the progressive nature of the
federal income tax structure;that is,individuals with large
incomes pay higher tax rates than individuals with low incomes.
Because of the high cost of living in Alaska,the typical Alaska
taxpayer receives a higher income than the U.S.average.This means
that the typical Alaska taxpayer also pays a higher-than-average
effective tax rate.
The final element in the personal income component of the MAP
economic model is an adjustment for the effects of inflation.
Disposable personal income measured in current dollars is deflated
by the Alaska relative price index to produce an estimate of real
disposable personal income in terms of constant 1967 prices.Since
virtually all consumer·goods are imported from the Lower 48 and
since wage rates in Alaska are closely tied to wages in the United
States,relative prices in Alaska are projected as a function of the
U.S.consumer price index.The empirical studies used to derive
this relationship indicate that,over the long run,prices in Alaska
may be expected to increase somewhat less rapidly than prices in the
United States.This is consistent with the expectation that as the
Alaska economy expands,there will be a certain amount of import
substitution and economies of scale that will tend to lower costs in
some Alaska industries.
Real disposable personal income provides a measure of the
effective purchasing power of Alaska consumers after taking into
account tax payments and after making allowance for the effects of
inflation.This is,of course,the income measure that was used
previously in determining the demand for the output of the support
sector industries.At this point,the circle is closed:personal
income depends on industry output and industry output depends on
personal income.
STATE ECONOMIC MODULE DETAIL
'"""
Economic activity is measured by
industry:employment (EM**),wages and
rate (WR**),and gross product (xx**).
activity in each industry differ.
four variables in each
salaries (WS**),the wage
The equations describing
Each industry is identified by a suffix.Coefficients for the
stochastic equations are identified by a prefix C followed by a
number and a suffix letter.In this section,the equations used for
each industry are described.
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Finance,Insurance,Real Estate (**FI)
Public Utilities (**PU)
Communications (**CM)
These three support industries are modeled in a similar manner
which reflects the underlying structure of all the support sector
industries in the model.In each,the level of output of the
industry,measured as real gross produc t(XX**),is determined by
available real disposable personal income.Different combinations
of current and lagged values of both regular disposable personal
income (R.DPI8N)and the disposable personal income generated
directly by premium wage rate enclave construction projects (such as
construction of the Alyeska pipeline)(R.DPI8X)as well as the
average level of wealth in the economy (WEALTH)work best to explain
output in each case.
Average annual employment (EM**)in each case is determined by
the output of the industry.This equation represents the production
function.A pipeline dummy (PIPE)improves the fit of the equation
for the public utilities industry.
The real annual average wage rate (WR**/PDRPI)for each industry
(PDRPI is an Alaskan price index)is a function of both national and
regional economic factors.The change in the real average U.S.wage
rate (WEUS/PDUSCPI)is the major determinant of local wage rates
because of the direct link between the Alaska and national labor
markets.When the local demand for labor is growing rapidly,there
may be upward pressure on wage rates because of temporary supply
constraints or because of a temporary increase in premium wage rate
employment opportunities.The ratio of premium wage construc tion
employment to total employment (EMCNRT)measures this local labor
market tightness.Premium wage construction employment is enclave
construction employment at high wages.The oil pipeline is an
example of a project which generated premium wage construction
employment.A dummy variable (D.80DEC6)reflects the fact that wage
rates have proved to be "s ticky"in the downward direction since
1980 in the presence of a declining differential between Alaskan and
lower 48 price levels.
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Finance-Insurance-Real Estate (**FI)
316:XXFI =C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
317:LOG(EMFI)=C8lA+C81B*LOG(XXFI)
318:LOG(WRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C82D*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»
319:WSFI ==EMFI*WRFI/IOOO.
Public Utilities (**PU)
299:XXPU =C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+
C72D*R.DPI8N(-2)
-300:LOG(EMPU)=C73A+C73C*PIPE(-1)+C73B*LOG(XXPU)
301:LOG(WRPU/PDRPI)=C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C74C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»
302:WSPU ==EMPU*WRPU/IOOO.
Communications (**CM)
295:XXCM =C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*
WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l)
296 LOG(EMCM)=C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCM)
297:LOG(WRCM/PDRPI)=C70A+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C70C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C70D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»
298:WSCM ==EMCM*WRCM/IOOO.
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Mining (Including Petroleum)(**P9)
Mining industry employment (EMP9),which consists primarily of
petroleum exploration and development,is determined outside the
model as part of a growth "scenario."Output (XXP9)is calculated
from employment.The wage rate and total wages and salaries are
calculated in a manner similar to all other industries.
273:LOG(XXP9)=C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9)
274:LOG(WRP9/PDRPI)=C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D~D6l.76+C53B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)
275:WSP9 ==EMP9*WRP9/l000
Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries,Unclassified (**A9)
Wage and salary employment in this sector (EMA9)consists of
that small portion of the fish harvesting industry employing workers
covered by unemployment insurance programs (EMAFISH),agricultural
workers (E~GRI),unclassified workers,and foresters.The part of
fish harvesting employment is a constant proportion of the total
(EMFISH).All of agricultural employment (determined ~n a
"scenario")is within this sector.Unclassified employment is a
constant level calibrated to 1980.Forestry employment ~s a
constant proportion of manufacturing employment in the lumber,pulp,
and paper industry (EMMX2).
Output,the wage rate,and wages and salaries are determined in
the same way as in the mining industry.Output in this sector
consists of the gross product of all fish harvesting,not only that
of those workers who work for a wage.
349:EMA9 =EMAFISH+EMAGRI+PC39A*D77.00+PC39B*EMMX2
350:XXA9 =C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS)
351:LOG(WRA9/PDRPI)=C95A+C95F*D.80DEC6+C95B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C95C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C95D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))
352:WSA9 ==EMA9*WRA9/l000.
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Transportation (**T9)
Transportation industry employment has three components:a
support component (EMTNT)and two basic sector components--tourist-
related employment (EMTTOUR)and large pipeline employment (EMT9X).
Gross product in the support component of the industry (XXTNT)is
determined by real disposable personal income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X).
This,in turn,determines support employment in transportation.
Tourist-related employment is a constant portion of total
tourist-related employment in the economy (EMTOUR).Large pipeline
activity is determined outside the model as part of the growth
"scenario."
Total industry gross product (XXT9)is the ratio of total to
support employment multiplied by support gross product.
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There is one wage rate
calculated in the usual way.
calculated in the usual way.
for the whole industry which is
Total wages and salaries is also
-287:XXTNT =C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-1)+
C64~kR.DPI8N+C64E*D7l.73
288:LOG(EMTNT)=C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT)
289:EMTTOUR =PTOURT*EMTOUR
290:EMT9l =EMTNT+EMTTOUR
291:EMT9 =EMT9l+EMT9X
292:XXT9 =XXTNT*(EMT9/EMTNT)
293:LOG(WRT9/PDRPI)=C66A+C66F*D.80DEC6+C66D*D6l.76+C66B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C66E*
LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l»
294:WST9 ==EMT9*WRT9/l000.
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Manufacturing (**M9)
Manufacturing employment consists of a small support component
(EMMO)as well as a basic sector component (EMMX),itself consisting
of two e1ements--one which commands a premium wage rate (EMMX1)and
another with the same wage as the support component (EMMX2).As in
the mining industry,output is a function of employment.Support
sector employment is determined by disposable income (R.DPI8N),and
basic sector employment is determined outside the model as part of
the growth "scenario."
The manufacturing industry wage rate (WRM9)consists of two
separate wage rates.One is for support sector manufac turing and
all the current basic manufacturing activity consisting primarily of
fish processing,pulp and paper,and timber (WRM91).The other is a
premium wage (WRM9P)associated with certain prospective
manufacturing activities (EMMXl)such as a petrochemical plant or
aluminum smelter.The premium wage is a simple multiple (PADJ)of
the regular wage.Wages and salaries in total and for premium wage
employment are calculated in the usual way.
276:EMMO =C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77
277:EMM91 =EMMO+EMMX2
278:LOG(XXM91)=C6lA+C61B*LOG(EMM91)
279:XXM9 --XXM91+XXMX2
280:EMMX --EMMX1+EMMX2
281:EMM9 =EMMO+EMMX
282:LOG(WRM91/PDRPI)=C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C62C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C62D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))
283:WRM9P ==WRM91*PADJ
284:WSM9 ==(EMMO+EMMX2)*WRM91/1000+EMMX1*WRM9P/1000
285:WSM9P ==EMMX1*WRM9p/1000
286:WRM9 ==WSM9/EMM9*1000
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Trade (**D9)
Employment in wholesale (EMDW)and retail (EMDR)trade are
handled as separate industries.In addition,retail trade contains
a tourist-related component (EMDTOUR).
Output in wholesale (XXDW)and retail trade (net of tourist-
,related employment)(XXDRNT)is determined as functions of real
disposable personal income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X)and average wealth
(WEALTH).Employment,in turn,is a function of output.Tourist-
related employment in trade is a constant proportion of total
tourist employment (EMTOUR),which is added to other retail
employment to get total retail trade employment.Wage rates and
wages and salaries are calculated in the usual way.Total output
(XXD9)includes a tourist-related component calculated at the same
ratio to employment as the rest of the industry.
303:XXDW =C7lA+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-1)*
R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
304:XXDRNT =C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*
R.DPI8N(-1)+C76E*R.DPI8X(-1)
305:LOG(EMDW)=C77A+C77B*LOG(XXDW)
306:LOG (EMDRNT)=C7SA+C75B*LOG(XXDRNT)
307:EMDR =EMDRNT+EMDTOUR
308:LOG(WRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C78C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+
C78E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
309:LOG(WRDR/pDRPI)=C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOG(WEUSI
PDUSCPI)+(+C79D)*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+C79E*.
LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
310:EMDTOUR =PTOURD*EMTOUR
311:EMD9 =EMDRNT+EMDW+EMDTOUR
312:WSD9 ==(EMDRNT+EMDTOUR)*WRDR/1000+EMDW*WRDW/1000
313:WRD9 =WSD9/EMD9*1000
314:XXD9 =(XXDW+XXDRNT)/(EMDW+EMDRNT)*EMD9
315:XXDR =XXD9-XXDW
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Services (**S9)
Services employment consists of four components:support sector
(EMS8NT).tourism (EMrOUR).business services (EMSB).and Native
corporations (not explicit).Output of support sector services
(XXS8NT)and business-related services (XXSB)is determined by
functions of disposable personal income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X)and
average wealth (WEALTH).Employment in each of these sectors is a
function of output.
Tourism-related employment (EMSTOUR)is a constant portion of
total tourist employment (EMTOUR).Separate wage rates are
calculated for business services (WRSB)and other services net of
business services (WRSNB).
Native corporation-related employment equals Native corporation
wages and salaries (NCWS)divided by the average wage rate for the
whole industry (WRS9).
Industry wages and salaries are calculated 1n the usual way.
Total output is the same ratio to total employment as is output
Ln the support and business service components of the industry.
320:XXS8NT =C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8X(-1)+C84D*
WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l)
321:XXSB =C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-1)+C83E*
WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l)
322:LOG(EMS8NT)=C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT)
323:LOG(EMSB)=C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB)
324:LOG(WRSNB/PDRPI)=C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOG(WEUS!
PDUSCPI)+C86C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C86D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+
C86E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
325:LOG(WRSB!PDRPI)=C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88E*D61.70+C88B*
LOG(WEUS!PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C88D*
LOG (l+EMCNRT (-1))+C88G*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
326:EMSTOUR =PTOURS*EMTOUR
327:EMS91 =EMSB+EMS8NT+EMSTOUR
328:WSS91 ==(EMS8NT+EMSTOUR)*WRSNB/1000+EMSB*WRSB!lOOO
/1""!
I B-21
329:WSS9 ==WSS9l+NCWS
330:EMS9 =EMS91+NCWS/(WRS9*1000)
331:WRS9 =WSS91/EMS9l*1000
332:XXS9 =(XXS8NT+XXSB)/(EMS8NT+EMSB)*EMS9
Federal Government (**GF)
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
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Federal government employment (EMGF)is the sum of civilian
(EMGC)and military (EMGM)employment,both of which are determined
in the growth "scenario.1I Output (XXGF)is a function of
employment.A wage rate for civilian employment is calculated
(which is not responsive to local market conditions),and the
military.wage rate is a fixed proportion of the civilian wage
(PCIVPY).Wages and salaries are calculated in the usual way._
333 :EMGF =EMGM+EMGC
334:LOG(XXGF)=CIOlA+CIOIB*LOG(EMGF)
335 :LOG(WRGC/PDRPI)=~89A+LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
336:WRGM =WRGC*PCIVPY
337:WSGC =WRGC*EMGC/1000
338:WSGM =WRGM*EMGM/IOOO
339 :WSGF ==WSGC+WSGM -340:WRGF =WSGF/EMGF*1000
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Construction (**CN)
Employment in the construction industry is in four categories:
two endogenous cateogries (EMCN1)--support and government
expenditure related--and two types of basic employment (EMCNX).
Support sector output (XXCN8)is a function of disposable personal
income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X).To this is added the value of capital
expenditures made by state government (XXVACAP)to get total
endogenous output (XXCN1).Endogenous employment (EMCN1)is a
function of this output.
Basic employment consists of normal wage basic employment
(EMCNX2)which receives the same wage as support sector and
government-related construction employment (WRCNNP)and premium wage
construe tion employment (EMCNXl)which is defined as remote site,
specialized employment commanding a high annual wage (WRCNP).This
wage is a multiple of the regular wage (PIPADJ).Wages and salaries
for the industry are calculated in the usual way.
Premium wage employment interacts with several other model
components.First,it directly affects wage rates and the price
level in most other industries through the variable EMCNRT,which is
a measure of excess demand in the labor market.Second,it forms
the basis for the special component of disposable personal income,
R.DPI8X,which is a variable in some of the equations explaining
support sector output.Third,it is the determinant of whether the
proxy variable PIPE,which measures large exogenous shocks to the
economy,takes on a value of one.
260:EMCNRT =IF EMCNX1*3 LT EMCN1(-1)THEN 0 ELSE
EMCNX1/(EM98-EMCNX1)
261:PIPE ==IF EMCNX1-EMCNX1(-1)GT 5 THEN 1 ELSE 0
262:XXCN8 =C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54C*R.DPI8X+C54D*
R.DPI8X(-1)+C54E*D64.65
263:XXCNl =XXCN8+XXVACAP
264:LOG(EMCNl)=C56A+C56B*LOG(XXCNl)
265:EMCNX =EMCNX1+EMCNX2
266:EMCN =EMCN1+EMCNX
267:XXCN =EMCN/EMCN1*XXCNl
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268:LOG(WRCNNP!PDRPI)=C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUS!
PDUSCPI)+C59C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C59D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+
C59E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»
2 69:WRCNP =WRCNNP*PIPADJ
270:WSCN =(EMCN1+EMCNX2)*WRCNNP!1000+EMCNX1*WRCNP!1000
271:WRCN =WSCN!EMCN*1000
272:WSCNP =EMCNX1*WRCNP!1000
State and Local Government (**GA)
Government expenditures on wages and salaries at the state
(WSGS)and local (WSGL)levels are determined by the operating
budgets of state and local government,respectively.Wage rates are
calculated for state government (WRGS)and local government (WRGL)
in the usual way.Employment is calculated as total wages and
salaries divided by the wage rate for state (EMGS)and local
government (EMGL).Output in the combined state and local
government sector (XXGA)is a function of combined employment (EMGA).
341:LOG(WRGS!PDRPI)=C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS!
PDUSCPI)+C92C*D61.73
342:EMGS =WSGS!WRGS*1000
343:LOG(WRGL!PDRPI)=C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69+
C102C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS!PDUSCPI)
344:EMGL =WSGL!WRGL*1000
345:EMGA =EMGS+EMGL
346:WSGA =WSGS+WSGL
347:WRGA =WSGA!EMGA*1000
348:LOG(XXGA)=C104A+C104B*LOG(EMGA)
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Tourism
The number of tourists (TOURIST)is determined 1n the growth
"scenario."Total employment in tourism (EMTOUR),consisting of
portions of the trade,services,and transportation industries,
grows as a function of the number of tourists.
376:LOG(EMTOUR)=PTOURB+PTOURE*LOG(TOURIST)
Fish Harvesting
Employment 1n fish harvesting (EMFISH)is determined in the
growth "scenario."It is allocated by a proportion (PFISHl)into a
wage and salary component (EMAFISH)and a proprietor component which
consists of all fishermen who do not work for a wage (EMPROFIS).
Wages and salaries paid to those fishermen who earn a wage is
calculated as part of the Agricultural-Forestry-Fishery-Unclassified
(**A9)industry.Other fishermen earn proprietor income (PIPROF),
which is constant in real per fisherman terms at the present level.
238:PIPROF =EMPROFIS*(4.523*(PDRPI/340))
360:EMPROFIS =PFISH1*EMFISH
361:EMAFISH =(1-PFISH1)*EMFISH
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Proprietor Activity
Proprietor activity (all non-wage and -salary activity)consists
of fish harvesting and all other proprietor activity.Fish
harvesting employment (EMPROFIS)and income (PIPROF)are determined
by total fish harvesting activity.
Other employment (EMPR01)is a function of all wages and salary
employment (EM98).Personal income associated with this employment
(PIPROU grows with the level of employment in nonfish processing
proprietor activity.
Total proprietor employment (EMPRO)and income (PIPRO)are each
the sum of their component parts.
237:PIPR01*lOO/PDRPI =C45A+C45B*EMPR01+C45C*D6l.66+C45D*D79
239:PIPRO ==PIPR01+PIPROF
359:LOG(EMPR01)=C100A+C100C*D6l.66+C100B*LOG(EM98)
362:EMPRO =EMPR01+EMPROFIS
Total Employment
Total wage and salary employment (EM98)is defined as the sum of
civilian employment covered by unemployment insurance in all
industries (EM97)plus military employment (EMGM).Total employment
(EM99)includes,in addition to employment covered by unemployment
insurance and the military,proprietor employment (EMPRO).Total
civilian employment (EM96)is net of military employment.
Note that tourism employment (EMTOUR)is all subsumed within the
transportation,trade,and service sectors.Also,fish harvesting
employment (EMFISH)is divided into wage and salary and proprietor
components.
353:EM98 =EMP 9+EMCN+EMM9+EMT9+EMCM+EMPU+EMD9+EMFI+
EMS9+EMGF+EMGA+EMA9
354:EM97 =EM98-EMGM
363:EM99 ==EM98+EMPRO
364:EM96 =EM99-EMGM
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Total Output
Total output (XX98)includes all industries except nonfish
harvesting-related proprietor activity.
377:XX98 =XXP9+XXCN+XXM9+XXT9+XXCM+XXPU+XXD9+XXFI+
XXS9+XXGF+XXGA+XXA9
Total Wages and Salaries
Total wages and salaries (WS98)is the sum of the wages and
salaries paid in all industries and is thus net of proprietor
income.Nonagricultural wage and salary employment (WS97)excludes
military wages and salaries.The average wage rate for total (WR98)
and nonagricultural (WR97)wages and salaries are calculated.
355:WS98 =(WRP9*EMP9+WRCN*EMCN+WRM9*EMM9+WRT9*EMT9+WRCM*
EMCM+WRPU*EMPU+WRD9*EMD9+WRFI*EMFI+WRS9*EMS9+WRGF*
EMGF+WRGA*EMGA+WRA9*EMA9)!lOOO.
356:WS97 =WS98-WSGM
357:WR98 =WS98*lOOO!EM98
358:WR97 ==WS97*1000!EM97
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MaP Documentation
May 1983
Personal Income
Personal income by place of residence (PI)is built up from
wages and salaries.It includes,in addition to wages and salaries
(WS98),other labor income (PIOLI);proprietor income (PIPRO);
dividends,interest,and rents (PIDIR);and transfers (PITRAN);it
is net of both social security contributions (PISSC)and a residency
adjustment (PlRADJ).Other labor income is a function of wages and
salaries,as are social security contributions.Dividends,interest,
and rents are a function of disposable income.Transfers consist of
an exogenous state government component (EXTRNS)and all others
(PITRAN1).Endogenous transfers grow with the growth ~n the
population over 65 (POPGER).
Personal income prior to netting out the residence adjustment ~s
calculated (PI8).The residency adjustment ~s a function of
employment.
232:PIDIR =C5LA+C51B*(DPI+DPI(-1)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPI(-4»
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-
....
236:PISSC =C106A+C106B*(WS98-WSCNP)
234:PITRAN/PDRPI =IF YR GT 1980 THEN PITRAN1/PDRPI+EXTRNS/
PDRPI ELSE C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI
233:PITRAN1 =IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 500.245 ELSE
PITRAN1(-1)/POPGER(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI)*POPGER
235:PIOLI C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-1)
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240:PIB =WS98+PIOLI+PIPRO-PISSC+PIDIR+PITRAN
246:PlRADJ*100/PDRPI =C103A+C103B*EMCNX1+C103C*EM97
247:PI =PI8-PlRADJ
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Components of Real Disposable Personal Income
Disposable personal income (DPI)is personal 1ncome net of
federal (RTPIF),state (RTISCP),and local (DPIRES)income-related
taxes paid by Alaskan residents.Disposable personal income before
the residency adjustment is also calculated (DPI8).This definition
of disposable income is used to construct two real disposable income
measures.One (R.DPI8X)is the real disposable personal income
associated with premium wage construction employment.The other
(R.DPI8N)includes all other real disposable personal income.
254:DPI =PI-RTPIF-RTISCP-DPIRES+RTISXX
255:DPI8 =DPI+PIRADJ
258:R.DPI8N =DPI8*lOO/PDRPI-R.DPI8X
259:R.DPI8X =DPI8/PI8*WRCNP*EMCNXl/10/PDRPI
Price Indexes
There are three price indexes used in the model.The most
important,PDRPI,is an index for deflating consumer prices to the
1967 u.S.level.At each point in time,this index is ~qual to the
U.S.consumer price index,PDUSCPI,multiplied by the ratio of
prices in Anchorage and the United States as measured by the Bureau
of Labor Statistics moderate-family budget,PDRATIO.This ratio is
a negative function of the growth in the size of the support sector
of the economy as reflected by employment in trade,finance,and
services as well as transportation,communication,and public
utilities,EMSP.It is a positive function of tightness in the
local labor market as reflected in the variable EMCNRT,which is the
proportion of total employment accounted for by high wage,exogenous
construction.
A price deflator for state government operating expenditures,
PDEXOPS,is a weighted average of government wage rates,WRGA,and
the nonpersonnel expenditure price level using PDRPI as a proxy.A
price deflator for capital expenditures is based upon the wage rate
in construction (nonpipeline),WRCNNP.
Many variables are deflated to a 1982 Alaska base using the 1982
level of PDRPI.All such variables have the prefix DF.
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4:PDRATro =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 1.296 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1981
THEN 1.266 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 1.262 ELSE (IF
RTIS(-2)-RTIS(-l)NE 0 AND RTIS(-2)EQ 0 THEN
PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(EMSP-EMSP(-1))!EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EMCNRT!
(EM98(-1)!(EM98-EMCNX1)))-C67C ELSE PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*
(EMSP-EMSP(-1))!EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EMCNRT!(EM98(-1)!
(EM98-EMCNXl))))))
5:PDRPI =PDRATIO*PDUSCPI
6:PDEXOPS =WSGSFY(-l)!EXOPS(-l)*(WRGA*lOO!PWRBASE)+
(EXOPS(-l)-WSGSFY(-l))!EXOPS(-l)*PDRPI
7:PDCON =C107A+C107B*WRCNNP
National Variables
Real per capita disposable personal income in the United States
(PR.DPIUS),the USCPI (PDUSCPI),.and the average weekly wage in the
United States (WEUS)each grow at exogenous rates.These are as
follows:GRDIRPU,GRUSCPI,and GRRWEUS.
1:PR.DPIUS =IF YR LT 1982 THEN PR.DPIUl ELSE
PR.DPIUS(-l)*(l+GRDIRPU)
2:PDUSCPI =IF YR LT 1982 THEN PDUSCPIl ELSE
PDUSCPI(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)
3:WEUS =IF YR LT 1982 THEN WEUSl ELSE
WEUS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRRWEUS)
B-30
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B.3.Description of the Fiscal Module
of the MAP Economic Model
There are four categories of state government revenues.
Petroleum-related revenues are exogenously provided from information
on production,wellhead price,and other characteristics.Endogenous
revenues are functionally related directly to the level of economic
activity in the economy.Federal transfers are a function of
prices,and fund earnings are determined by the balances in the
general and Permanent Funds.
Total state government operating expenditures,operating
expenditures Qy program,and capital expenditures can be determined
by a variety of rules specified by the model user.These include
the choice of the spending limit,historical relationships,simple
growth rates,or relating spending to specific variables like
population or the size of toe general fund balance.
Local government revenues consist of state-local
federal-local transfers,and endogenously generated
Expenditures are determined by income and population.
transfers,
revenues.
Government expenditures affect the private economy prlmaril~
through wage and salary payments and purchases of capital.In
addi tion,government personal income taxes and transfers determine
what proportion of income is retained by individuals as disposable
personal income.
Data sources for the fiscal model are primarily the Executive
Budget and Annual Financial Report of the Department of
Admini strati on,Revenue Sources of the Department of Revenue,and
the various state and local government fiscal summaries of the U.S.
Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census.
State fiscal activity can be analyzed in terms of revenues and
expendi tures moving through the various state funds.The general
structure of these accounts are shown in Tables B.3 and B.4.The
most important of these funds are the general fund and the Permanent
Fund,although there are a number of smaller funds which affect the
level of economic activity stimulated by government spending.These
include the Enterprise Funds,Capital Projects Funds,Special
Revenue Funds,and Loan Funds.
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TABLE B.3.STATE REVENUES
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Unrestricted General Fund Revenues
GENERAL FUND EARNINGS
PERMANENT FUND EARNINGS DISTRIBUTED
TO GENERAL FUND
RSGFBM
RSIG
RSIPGF
*Net out this item before calculation of General Fund revenues.
PETROLEUM REVENUES
severance taxes
property taxes
corporate income taxes
unclassified petroleum
petroleum revenues net
of Permanent Fund contribution
bonuses
rents and royalties
federal shared royalties
ENDOGENOUS REVENUES
Nonpetroleum Taxes
corporate income tax
personal income tax
business license tax
motor fuel tax
alcohol tax
ad valorem tax
cigarette tax (net of
special fund allocation)
school tax
miscellaneous
Other
fees and licenses
ferry receipts
miscellaneous
STATE ANCSA PAYMENTS*
Restricted General Fund Revenues
FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID TO GENERAL FUND
MISCELLANEOUS RESTRICTED GENERAL
FUND REVENUES
RPTS
RPPS
RTCSPX
RP9X
RPBSGF
RPRYGF
RSFDNPXG
RTCSI
RTIS
RTBS
RTKF
RTAS
RTVS
RTCIS
RTSS
RTOTS
ROFTS
ROFERS
RMIS
RP9SGF
RSENGF
(SANCSA)
RSGFRS
RSFDN
RMISRES
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Note:In this formulation.all Permanent Fund earnings not
retained pass through the general fund.
B-32
.....TABLE 8.3.(continued)
Total General Fund Revenues
(Restricted +Unrestricted)
Total General Fund Revenues Including Inter-
agency Receipts (Restricted and Unrestricted)
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RSGF
RSGF +EXINREC
i
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r
I
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Permanent Fund Revenues (not including
special appropriations)
statutorally required
contributions
reinvestment of earnings
EXPFNEW
EXPFREIN
EXPFCONl
r
i
Total Revenues (General Fund
unrestricted]+Permanent
petroleum
fund earnings
federal transfers
endogenous
Enterprise Fund Revenues
Special Fund Revenues
[restricted and
Fund)
RP9S
RSIN
RSFDN
RSEN
R99S
RSIAS
RSFS
r
f
r
.-
Total Petroleum Revenues (General Fund
+Permanent Fund)
severance taxes
property tax
corporate income tax
unclassified taxes
bonuses
rents and royalties
federal shared royalties
B-33
RPTS
RPPS
RTCSPX
RP9X
RPBS
RPRY
RSFDNPX
RP9S
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-.
TABLE B.4.STATE EXPENDITURES
Expenditure Limit EXLIM
Operations (net of
debt service)
Nonoperations
capital
sUbsidy
EXGFCAP
EXSUBS
EXGFOPER-EXDSS
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Add:Debt Service
Permanent Fund Dividends
Special Capital Appropriations
Special Permanent Fund Contributions
EXDSS
EXTRNS
EXSPCAP
EXPFCONX -
Equals:General Fund Unrestricted Expenditures
Operations
Capital
SUbsidy
Permanent Fund Dividends
Minus:Special Permanent Fund Contributions
EXGFOPER
EXGFCAP
EXSUBS
EXTRNS
EXGFBM
EXPFCONX -
Add:Federal Grants-in-Aid to General Fund
Miscellaneous Restricted General Fund Revenues
RSFDN
RMISRES
Equals:Total General Fund Expenditures
Minus:Subsidy
Special Capital Appropriations
General Fund Capital
Permanent Fund Dividend
Add:Interagency Receipts
Special Fund Receipts
Enterprise Fund Receipts
Non-General Fund University
of Alaska Receipts
Equals:Total Operating Budget
Operations
Debt Service
Non-General Fund
U of A Receipts
B-34
EXGF
EXSUBS
EXSPCAP
EXGFCAP
EXTRNS
EXINREC
RSFS
RSIAS
PARNONGF )\:EXUA
EXBUD
EXOPS
EXDSS
PARNONGF )\:EXUA
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HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE B.4.(continued)
r
r
Add:Capital Expenditures
general fund
capital projects fund
(bond sales and
federal grants)
Special Capital Expenditures
Subsidy
Permanent Fund Dividends
EXGFCAP
EXCPS
EXCAP
EXSPCAP
EXSUBS
EXTRNS
Equals:Total State Spending EX99S
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-[
Note:In this formulation,all Permanent Fund earnings not retained,
pass through general fund .
B-35
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Two constant difficulties in modeling state fiscal behavior are
the lack of consistency in the data among the primary sources
utilized and the evolution over time in programs,organizational
structure,and methods and formats for the presentation of data.
This evolution is often rapid and radical,
In order to obtain a complete picture of state government fiscal
acti vi ties,three major sources of data--the Department of Revenue
Revenue Sources and Petroleum Production Revenue Forecast,the
Department of Administration Annual Financial Report,and the Office
of the Governor Budget Document--as well as a number of other data
sources are used.Different accounting conventions as well as
different definitions of such items as the general fund balance,
general fund revenues,etc.,among these sources and also between
these sources and other sources of information on government fiscal
activity such as the legislature make it imposs ible,particularly
during periods of rapid growth in government activity reflected in
the appearance of new programs,to model state fiscal activity
consistently from the perspective of all data sources.The guiding
principle in the development and evolution of the fiscal model is
that it be the best consistent representation of all fiscal aspects
of state government and clearly incorporate into its structure the
most important linking mechanisms between state spending,fund
balances,and the size and composition of the private economy.
The general fund is the main state government fund into which
the majority of state revenues flow and from which general
appropriations for government operations,including capital
expenditures,and transfers to local governments originate.
Unappropriated funds accumulate in the general fund until they are
appropriated and spent.These funds are,in general,available for
any purpose,with two exceptions.First,a large portion of general
fund appropriations fund entitlement programs which are budgeted on
the basis of formulas linked to population,price l~vel,and other
economic and demographic variables.The formulas may be altered by
law,but absent such changes,these program budgets will vary
automatically with economic and demographic change.Second,a
portion of general fund revenues termed "restdcted"consists of
federal grants-in-aid,interagency receipts,and other minor sources
of income that are restricted in use to certain programs.These
restricted revenues form a part of the overall budget but are not a
source of discretionary state spending.
The Permanent Fund is the other major fund of the state.A
constitutionally specified portion of state royalties and bonuses
from the sale and production of natural resources,principally
petroleum,is deposited in the Permanent Fund.These deposits can
be supplemented by special contributions and the reinvestment of
earnings.Fund earnings can also be transferred to the general fund
or also directly into a cash distribution program.
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state government activity affects the private economy in several
ways which are listed and described in Table B.S.
TABLE B.S.LINKS BETWEEN FISCAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
state government wages and salaries combine
government wage rate to determine employment.
wages and salaries is a function of both
composition of the state operating budget.
wi th a state
The level of
the size and
XXVACAP The value added by state-funded capital construction
contributes to the total value added of the construction
industry.Value added is a function of the size and
composition of the state capital budget.
r
I.
r
EXTRNS Permanent Fund dividends increase individual disposable
personal income.
State personal income tax payments reduce individual
disposable personal income.
Transfers from state to local government increase local
spending and reduce state spending.State spending is
reduced by education transfers,tax sharing,revenue
sharing,and miscellaneous transfers.Local spending is
increased by education transfers,exogenous transfers,and
municipal assistance payments.
EXSUBS State subsidy programs have no economic
is essentially a long-run model.
discretionary income and stimulate
subsidized only in the short run.
impact because this
Subs idies increase
the activity being
r-
,
Local government wages.and salaries combine with a local
government wage rate to determine employment.This is a
function of the size of the local government budget.
B-37
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Modeling of local fiscal activity is subject to the same
problems of historical consistency and data availability as state
fiscal activity modeling.The main data source is the annual
reports on local government fiscal activity from the U.S.Department
of Commerce.The data in these documents is based upon survey
rather than census,and the definitions are not always consistent
with either the state of Alaska or the various local governments in
the state.The major problem area is linking of the state and local
fiscal sectors through the modeling of state-local transfers.Not
only have the programs themselves changed forms on an almost annual
basis in recent years,but the local response to increased state
assistance has varied by program.Local government can,and does,
both increase its programs and reduce local taxes when state aid
increases.These links consequently are modeled in a very general
way.
The level of local government activity is essentially determined
by state transfers and the demand for non-education goods and
services.
Fiscal Rule
The state 'fiscal model is guided by a "fiscal rule"which is a
set of user-specified parameters which control the level and
composition of state spending (and thus indirectly influence the
level of local government spending).The "fiscal rule"is necessary
because the size and composition of state appropriations is the
result of a political process which in years past has displayed no
stability or consistency.Consequently,the past cannot serve as an
adequate basis for modeling future spending.
In addition,the various functions of the model require that
alternative specifications of future state spending patterns be
available for particular analyses.Because of the large relat i ve
size and economic importance of state spending in the Alaska
economy.it is important to be able to vary the pattern of state
spending when performing different analyses with the model.
Specifically,the model has been used for the following types of
analyses,each requiring a different formulation of the "fiscal
rule":
1.Projections of most likely levels of economic
activity.In these analyses,the most likely fiscal
behavior is assumed.
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2.Fiscal policy analysis.In these analyses,the fiscal
and economic effects of particular fiscal policies are
examined,for example,the effects of the Permanent
Fund dividend distribution program.
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3.Aggregate spending analyses.In these analyses,the
fiscal and economic effects of different aggregate
state spending strategies are analyzed.
4.Public service demand analyses.In these analyses,
demand for public services determines the level of
spending.Demand can be in the form of population,
price level,personal income.exogenous growth rates.
or other variables.
5.Impact analyses.In these analyses.the fiscal and
economic effects of specific private sector economic
activities are examined.The state fiscal response to
a change in private sector activity can be specified
in a variety of ways.
Because of the constantly changing modeling requirements
mandated by different analyses as well as changing state fiscal
behavior,the "fiscal rules"are constantly changing,and although
this would appear to be a model weakness,it is actually a
reflection of the continuing instability and volatility within the
state fiscal sector.
At present,the "fiscal rule"is controlled by the spending
limit when revenues and fund balances are suff icient to spend the
amount allowed by the limi t and by available revenues otherwise.
Table 8.6 shows the primary parameters (each is actually a vector of
values)which the user must select in choosing a "fiscal rule"
within the framework of the spending limit .
B-39
EXBOND
EXPFBAK
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
EXRL5
EXSPCAP
EXSPLITX
EXSUBS
RLTMS
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May 1983
TABLE B.6.PRIMARY PARAMETERS OF CHOICE
STATE "FISCAL RULE"FOR
SPENDING LIMIT CASE
proportion of total capital spending financed by general
obligation bonds and federal grants
percent of Permanent Fund earnings plowed back into the
Permanent Fund
Permanent Fund contributions appropriated from the
general fund
percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to general
fund which are distributed to individuals
policy switch for determination of state expenditure
growth based upon constitutionally imposed spending limit
special capital appropriations over the limit
the target allocation to operations when state spending
falls below the authorized spending limit
the level of state subsidies under programs initiated
since 1980
state-local revenue transfers net of education,revenue
sharing.and tax sharing
'"""I
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RTIS personal income tax
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State Fiscal Module Detail
Petroleum Revenues
Petroleum revenues (RP9S)are divided between the general fund
(RP9SGF)and the Permanent Fund which receives a portion (EXPFl)of
bonuses (RPBS),royalties (RPRY),and federal-shared royalties
(RSFDNPX).In addition to those sources of petroleum revenues split
between the general and Permanent Funds (RP7S),other petroleum
revenues cons i st of property taxes (RPPS),severance taxes (RPTS),
corporate income taxes (RTCSPX),and miscellaneous (RP9X).All are
exogenous.The cumulative discounted value of petroleum revenues
from 1982 is calculated (DF.RSVP).
8:RP7S --RPBS+RPRY+RSFDNPX
9:RP9S --RP7S+RPPS+RPTS+RTCSPX+RP9X
10:RP9SGF-==RP9S-EXPFl*RP7S
11:RPBSGF --(l-EXPFl)~RPBS
12:RPRYGF --(l-EXPFl)*RPRY
13:RSFDNPXG ==(l-EXPFl)*RSFDNPX
14:DF.RSVP =IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE DF.RSVP(-1)+RP9S*
(PDRPIBAS/PDRPI)*(1/(1+RORDISK)**(YR-1981»
Personal Income Taxes (Including Federal and Local for Purposes of
Calculating Disposable Personal Income)
Although Alaska does not presently impose an income tax on
individuals,the personal income tax equations remain in the model
from the time when the tax was in force for several reasons.It is
possible to calculate what the tax receipts would be if reimposed,
the model structure is ready if it is reimposed~and the similar
structure of the federal and state personal income taxes means it is
easier to calculate the federal tax receipts with some information
about the structure of the state tax.
Personal taxes netted out of income to arrive at disposable
income include state income taxes paid by res idents on a calendar-
year basis (RTISCP),federal income taxes (RTPIF),and local taxes
(DPIRES).Total calendar-year state income taxes (RTISC)and fiscal
year taxes (RTIS)are also calculated.
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The state income tax is calculated on a per-taxpayer basis
(RTISCA)using Alaska taxable income (ATI)and the number of
taxpayers (ATT).Alaska taxable income is derived from federal
adjusted gross income earned in Alaska (FAGI)by first netting out
nontaxable military pay (WSGK)and Native claims payments (ANCSA)
and adding in the taxable federal cost-of-living allowance (COLA)to
derive Alaskan adjusted gross income (AGI).This is next reduced by
exemptions (AEX)each of which has a value (VAEX)and deductions
(ATD).
Several policy variables allow for examination of changes in the
tax structure (TXBASE.TXRT.TXCRPC.TCRED).Finally.the
difference between tax receipts using the historical (pre-1978
schedule)and the structure under examination is calculated
(RTISLOS).
Federal adjusted gross income reported in Alaska (FAGII),
smaller than federal adjusted gross income earned in the state
because of trans ient workers.forms the base for federal personal
income tax collections.
15:LOG(FAGI)=C2lA+C2lB*LOG(PI8)+C2lC*LOG(EMCNXl+EMP9)
16:LOG(FAGII)=C22A+C22B*LOG(PI)
11:COLA =(l-l/(l+PCOLART»*WSGC
18:AGI =FAGI+COLA-WSGK-PC12N*PC12RN*ANCSA*PCNCl
19:AEX*lOOO =ClOA+ClOB*POPC+ClOC*(EMCNXl+EMP9)
20:ATT =C28A+C28B*(EK99-EMGK)+C28C*EMCNXI
21:LOG(ATD/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D12
22:VAEX =IF YR LT 1980 THEN VAEXI ELSE VAEX(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI)
23:ATI ==AGI-AEX*VAEX-ATD
24:ATI.IT ==ATI/ATT
25:LOG(RTISCAl)=C24A-TXBASE+C24B*(1-TXRT}*LOG(ATI.TT}
26:LOG(RTISCA2}=C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT}
27:RTISCA ==IF YR GT 1984 THEN (IF EXTRNS+EXTRNS(-l)EQ 0
THEN EXRL5*(RTISCAl-TXCRPC*RTISCAl-TCRED/1000)ELSE O}
ELSE (IF YR LT 1919 THEN RTISCAl-TXCRPC*RTISCAl-TCREDI
1000 ELSE O)
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28:RTISLOS ==(RTISCA2-RTISCA)*ATT
29:RTISC =RTISCA*ATT
30:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C2SA*RTISC(-1)+C2SB*
RTISC
31:RTISCP =CIOSA+CIOSB*PI8+CIOSC*RTISC
32:LOG(RTPIF/ATT)=C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/IOOOI
ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)+C26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCREDI
lOOO/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)
33:DPIRES =C27A+C27B*PI3+C27C*WSCNP
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other Taxes
A number of other
taxes.Of these,the
composed of petroleum
(RTCSl),and exogenous
activities (RTCSX).
small taxes complete the modeling of state
most important is the corporate income tax
industry taxes (RTCSPX).endogenous taxes
taxes associated with some future large
The gross receipts tax (RTBS)has been largely eliminated since
1979.but its structure is still modeled using business licenses
(BL)and gross receipts (GR)as the tax base.From the latter.
gross taxable receipts (GTR)are calculated.Only a fraction
(PBLTBL)of revenues which would have been received prior to 1980
are now collected.
The motor fuel tax (RTMF)is next in order of importance.It is
a function of the volume of fuel oil sales (THG)which.in turn.is
a product of the number of vehicles on the road (TPTV)and average
consumption per vehicle (AHG).
Other endogenous taxes are ad valorem taxes.which are similar
to a gross receipts tax but levied only on insurance companies and
public utilities (RTVS),alcohol (RTAS)and cigarette (RTCIS)sales
taxes.and the school tax (RTSS)which was eliminated in 1981.
Finally,there is a residual category of other taxes (RTOTS)
consisting of fish processing taxes and miscellaneous small revenue
producers.
Total taxes (RT99)includes revenues to both the general and
Permanent Funds but excludes a portion of cigarette taxes (PECIG)
earmarked for a special revenue fund.
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40:LOG{RTCSl*100/PDRPI)=C43A+C43C*D64.65+C43B*LOG{EMP9
(-1)+EMCN{-1)+EHK9{-1)+EMT9{-1)+EMCM{-1)+EHPU{-1»
41:RTCS ==RTCSl+RTCSPX+RTCSX
34:LOG{BL)=C39A+C39B*LOG{XX98-XXP9)
35:LOG{GR)=C40A+C40B*LOG{XX98)
36:RTBS1 ==(BL+BL{-1»*1000/2*BTRATE
37:GTR =GR-BL{-1)*PNTGR*1000
38:LOG{RTBS2*10**3/BL{-1»=C29A+C29B*LOG{GTR{-1)*
10**3/BL{-l})
39:RTBS ==IF YR GE 1979 THEN RTBS1+RTBS2*PBLTBL ELSE
RTBS1+RTBS2
42:TPTV =C38A+C38B*POP
43:LOG{AHG)=C37A+C37B*LOG{PR.PI)
44:THG ==AHG*TPTV
45:LOG{RTHF)=C46A+C46B*LOG{THG)
46:LOG (RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG{R.DPI8N{-1»
47:LOG{RTAS)=C48A+C48B*LOG{R.DPI{-1»
48:LOG{RTCIS)=C49A+C49B*LOG{R.DPI{-1»
49:RTSS =IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50B*{EM99-EMGH)
50:RTOTS =RTOTS{-l)*{l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
51:RT99 ==RTIS+RTCS+RPPS+RPTS+RP9X+RTBS+RTHF+RTAS+
{l-PECIG)*RTCIS+RTVS+RTSS+RTOTS
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State Investment Earnings
State investment earnings from all state funds (RSIN),the
general fund (RSIG),Permanent Fund (RSIP),and a (hypothetical)
development fund (RSID)are calculated based upon the balance in
each fund in the previous year and a real rate of return specific to
each fund.They are as follows:general fund--ROR,Permanent
Fund--ROR+RORPPF,development fund--ROR-RORPDF.
Net earnings of each fund,
inflation,is also calculated for
RSIGNET,RSINNET).
after
each
accounting for
fund (RSIPNET,
Alaskan
RSIDNET,
r'"
I
A portion (EXPF8AK)of the earnings of the Permanent Fund remain
in that fund while the remainder (RSIPGF)is transferred to the
general fund either for the dividend program or general
appropriations.
57:RSIP ==(ROR+GRUSCPI+RORPPF)*BALPF(-l)
58:RSIPGF ==(l-EXPFBAK)*RSIP
59:RSID --(ROR+GRUSCPI-RORPDF)*BALDF(-l)
60:RSIG --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BALGF(-l)
61:RSIN --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*8AL99(-1)+RORPPF*BALPF(-1)-
RORPDF*BALDF(-l)
62:RSIPNET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)+RORPPF)*
BALPF(-1)
63:RSIDNET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)-RORPDF)*
BALDF(-1)
64:RSIGNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l»*BALGF(-l)
65:RSINNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1»*BAL99+
RORPPF*BALPF(-l)-RORPDF*BALDF(-l)
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other State General Fund Unrestricted Revenues -
Licenses and fees (ROFTS)consist of auto licenses and fees
(ROFAS)and business and some nonbusiness licenses and fees (ROFOS).
State ferry income (RFERS)is a component of general fund revenues.
The final element is miscellaneous nontax revenues consisting of
such things as nonpetroleum royalties and user fees.
Total unrestricted general fund revenues (RSGFBM)is the sum of
taxes and other revenues defined to include any Permanent Fund
earnings not retained in the fund as well as any withdrawals from
the (hypothetical)development fund (EXDFWITH).
Total general fund unrestricted revenues can be divided into
four categories:petroleum (RP9SGF).general fund earnings (RSIG).
Permanent Fund earnings transferred to the general fund (RSIPGF).
and endogenous revenues (RSENGF).
52:LOG(ROFAS)=C30A+C30B*LOG(TPTV(-1»
53:LOG(ROFOS)=C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-1»
54:ROFTS ==ROFAS+ROFOS
55:ROFERS =ROFERS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
56:LOG(RMIS)=C35A+C35B*LOG(PI3(-1»
66:RSGFBM =RT99+(1-EXPFI)*RP7S+ROFTS+ROFERS+RSIG+(1-
EXPFBAK)*RSIP+RMIS+EXDFWITH
81:RSENGF ==RSGFBK-RP9SGF-RSIPGF-RSIG
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Revenues Outside the Unrestricted General
Fund and Revenue Totals
Total general fund revenues (RSGF)consist of restricted
(RSGFRS)and unrestricted (RSGFBM)funds.Restricted funds include
federal program augmentation (RSFDN)and state program augmentation
as well as miscellaneous restricted receipts (RMISRES).These are
both categories for funds earmarked for specific purposes.
Total revenues (R99S)is defined to include general fund
revenues,Permanent Fund revenues,(hypothetical)development fund
earnings,all net of state required ANCSA payments (SANCSA),which
were completed in 1981.Since deposits and withdrawals can occur
between these funds,double counting must be avoided.
Revenues into two other small families of funds are calculated.
Special revenue funds (RSFS)consist of some special fees and
licenses (RSFFS),a portion (PECIG)of cigarette taxes,and some
miscellaneous items like federal revenue sharing.The international
airport enterprise fund (RSIAS)is the final category.
From total revenues (R99S),a number of subtotals can be
calculated.These include total net of all Permanent Fund
contributions (R99SNT),total net of federal transfers (R99S0N),
total ,net of all fund earnings and petroleum (NONPET),total net of
petroleum (NONRP9S),and endogenous (RSEN).
67:RSFDN =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 187.968 ELSE RSFDNX+RSFDN
(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
68:RMISRES =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 16.739 ELSE RMISRES(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
69:RSGFRS ==RSFDN+RMISRES
70:RSGF =RSGFBM+RSGFRS
71:R99S =RSGF+EXPFl*RP7S+EXPFBAK*RSIP+(RSID-EXDFWITH)-
SANCSA
72:LOG(RSFFS)=C58A+C58B*LOG(POP(-1»
73:RSFSI =RSFSl(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
74:RSFS ==PECIG*RTCIS+RSFFS+RSFSI
75:RSIAS =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 31.12 ELSE RSIAS(-l)*(l+
GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
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76:R99SNT --R99S-EXPFCON
77:R99S0N --R99S-RSFDN
78:NONPET --R99S-RP9S-RSIN
79:NONRP9S ==R99S-RP9S
80:RSEN ==R99S-(RP9S-SANCSA)-RSIN-RSFDN
Permanent Fund and Development Fund (hypothetical)
Permanent fund contributions consist of three elements:
statutorial1y required contributions (EXPFNEW).reinvestment of
earnings (EXPFREIN),and general fund appropriations (EXPFCONX).
A development fund does not currently exist but has periodically
been suggested for the specific purpose of investing in Alaskan
infrastructure development.If it did.a certain portion of'excess
current account revenues plus annual investment earnings net of
withdrawals might form the annual contributions (EXDFCON).
withdrawals might be a percentage of net earnings (EXDFPCNT).
82:EXPFCON =EXPFBAK*RSIP+EXPF1*RP7S+EXPFCONX
83:EXPFNEW ==EXPFl*RP7S
84:EXPFREIN --EXPFBAK*RSIP
85:EXPFCONI --EXPFCON-EXPFCONX
86:EXDFCON =IF RSGFBM GT EXGFBK THEN EXDFl*(RSGFBK-
EXGFBM)+(RSID-EXDFWITH)ELSE RSID-EXDFWITH
87:EXDFWITH =EXDFPCNT*RSIDNET
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State Expenditures--Major Categories
The consti tutional amendment establishing the expenditure limit
(EXLIM)places a ceiling on state expenditures except for debt
service,voter-approved capital expenditures,and supplementary
Permanent Fund contributions.The ceiling has been set at
$2.5 billion for 1982,and is annually adjusted for inflation and
population change.The allowable limit (EXLIMOK)may be less than
this if current revenues plus the balance in the general fund are
less than the spending limit ceiling.The difference .between these
amounts is defined as the revenue gap (RSGFGAP).
The spending limit also requires that no more than two-thirds of
expendi tures be allocated toward operations.wi th at least one·-third
for capital (EXSPLIT).If the limit is not in effect,this rule may
be inoperative,depending upon interpretation of the amendment.
Total operating expenditures (net of debt service)funded from
all sources (EXOPS)is consequently the operating portion of the
spending limit (EXLIMOK*EXSPLIT)plus operating expenditures funded
from sources not constrained by the limit.These sources are
interagency receipts (EXINREC),restricted general fund revenues
(RSFDN and RMISRES),special revenue fund receipts (RSFS).and the
international airport enterprise fund (RSIAS).
A number of other rules for determining state operating
expenditures are possible but are currenty not utilized.These
involve linking spending to demand factors such as income and
population,allowing spending to grow at some fixed rate,allowing
spending to grow as some function of a base case (BASEXOPS).or
spending some annuity amount (EXANSAV or EXSAVS).
Total capital expenditures (EXCAP)is similarly determined in
the current version of the model as capi tal expendi tures allowed
under the limit (recognizing that a portion of what is categorized
as capital expenditures is more properly designated subsidies
[EXSUBS]),augmented by capital expenditures,funded not out of the
general fund but rather out of capital projects funds (EXCPS).The
proportion of capital projects thus funded (EXBOND)is set
exogenously.Special capital expenditures (EXSPCAP)are in addition
to this definition of capital expenditures.
As with the operating budget,several other options are
available,but not currently in use,for formulating state
government capital expenditure behavior.These alternatives
parallel those for the operating budget but include,in addition.
the alternative of programming capital spending to maintain a
specified level of real per capita state capital stock (PR.BALCP).
The other main elements of state spending currently are the
Permanent Fund dividend program (EXTRNS)and state subsidy programs
under the capital budget (EXSUBS).The dividends are determined as
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a proportion (EXPFDIST)of Permanent Fund earnings not reinvested
(RSIP*(l-EXPFBAK».Subsidies are set exogenously to 1987 and then
equal half of the spending limit capital allotment or zero,
depending upon whether the current account balance of the general
fund is running negative.Interagency receipts (EXINREC)are a
function of the operating budget.
88:EXLIM =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN EXLIH82 ELSE EXLIH82*(PDRPII
PDRPIBAS)*(POP/430)
89:EXLIMOK =IF YR LT 1985 THEN EXLIK ELSE IF RSGFBK-EXDSS
-EXTRNS +BALGF(-l)GT EXLIM THEN EXLIK ELSE
RSGFBK-EXDSS-EXTRNS
90:RSGFGAP --EXLIH-EXLIKOK
91:EXSPLIT ==IF YRLT 1985 THEN 0.67 ELSE (IF RSGFGAP
GT 0 AND RSGFGAP(-l)GT 0 THEN EXSPLITX ELSE (IF
RSGFGAP GT 0 THEN 0.67+(EXSPLITX-0.67)/2 ELSE 0.67»
92:EXOPS =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXOPSI ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIKOK*
EXSPLIT+EXINREC+RSFDN+RMISRES+RSFS+RSIAS)+EXRLl*(EXOPS
(-1)*(1+(EXELl*(POP(-1)/POP(-2)-1)+EXEL2*(PDEXOPS(-1)1
PDEXOPS(-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*
(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXELS*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL6*
«POP(-1)-EMCNXl(-1»/(POP(-2)-EMCNXl(-2»-1»)+
EXRLOP6*BALGFCP(-1)*(BALGFP(-1)/EXGF(-1»)+EXRLOP7*
(R99S(-1)-EXNOPS(-1)-EXSAVS)+EXRLOP8*(R99S(-1)-
EXNOPS(-1)-EXANSAV)+EXRL3*(1+GRRPCEX)*(EXOPS(-1)1
POP(-1)/PDEXOPS(-1)*POP*PDEXOPS)+EXRL2*EXOPS(-1)*
(1+GREXOPS)+EXRL4*(BASEXOPS+EXOPSIMP*(PDEXOPS*
(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*(EMCNXI-BASEKCNX»»
93:EXANSAV =RP9S+RSIN-EXANNU*(1+RORANGRO)**(YR-1980)
94:EXSAVS =EXSAVX+EXPFCON+TXPTXX*RTISLOS
136:EXCAP =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCAPI ELSE EXRLS*(EXLIMOK*
(1-EXSPLIT)-EXSUBS)/(1-EXBOND)+EXRL3*«1+GRSSCP)*
PR.BALCP(-l)*POP/lOOO-R.BALCAP(-l)*(l/(l+RORCPDEP»)1
(lOO/PDCON)+EXRL2*(EXCAP(-1)*(1+GREXCAP»+EXRL4*
(BASEXCAP+EXCAPIMP*(PDCON*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*
(EKCNXl-BASEMCNX»»+EXRLl*(EXCAP(-l)*(l+EXELl*
(POP(-1)/POP(-2)-1)+EXEL2*(PDCON(-1)/PDCON(-2)-1)+
EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-
1)+EXELS*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-EKCNXl
(-1»/(POP(-2)-EMCNXl(-2»-1»)
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133:EXTRNS =IF YR LT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN
425 ELSE RSIP*(l-EXPFBAK)*EXPFDIST)
134:EXINREC =C17A+C17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)
135:EXSUBS =IF YR LT 1988 THEN EXSUBSI ELSE (IF EXRLS EQ 1
THEN (IF RSGFBM(-1)+RSGFBK(-2)LT EXGFBM(-1)+EXGFBM(-2)
OR EXSUBS(-l)EQ 0 THEN 0 ELSE EXLIMOK*(O.S*
(l-EXSPLIT»)ELSE EXSUBS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI»
State Expenditure Totals
Total general fund expendi tures.including from restric ted and
unrestricted accounts (EXGF).consists of operations including debt
service (but net of special revenue fund and international airport
fund revenues as well as interagency receipts)(EXOPS+EXDSS-RSFS-
RSIAS-EXINREC),general fund capital expenditures (EXGFCAP)as well
as -special capital expenditures (EXSPCAP),and subsidies (EXSUBS)
and Permanent Fund dividends (EXTRNS).Unrestricted general fund
expenditures (EXGFBM)further nets out restricted revenues (RSFDN
and RKISRES)but includes special Permanent Fund contributions.
General fund operating expenditures (EXGFOPER)is total
unrestricted expendi tures net of capi tal expendi tures.subs idies,
dividends,and special Permanent Fund contributions.Operating
expenditures defined by the state budget (EXBUD)includes debt
service expenditures and nongeneral fund University of Alaska
receipts.
Two other variables
(EXNOPS)and operating
government (EXONTR).
calculated are nonoperating expenditures
expenditures net of tran~fers to local
ISS:EXGF =EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS-EXINREC+
EXGFCAP-RSFS-RSIAS
156:EX99S =EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS+EXCAP+
PARNONGF*EXUA
157:EXGFBM =EXGF+EXPFCONX-RSFDN-RKISRES
158:EXNOPS =EX99S-EXOPS
159:EXBUD ==EXOPS+EXDSS+PARNONGF*EXUA
160:EXGFOPER ==EXGFBK-EXTRNS-EXGFCAP-EXSUBS-EXSPCAP-
EXPFCONX
161:EXONTR ==EXOPS+EXDSS-RLTE99-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTKS-RLTX
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State Operating Expenditure Detail
An initial estimate of state operating expenditures net of debt
service in each of nine functional categories (EXaaa4)is calculated
as a function of total operating expenditures.From these,the
ratio RATI01 is formed wi th total operating expendi tures,and the
ini tial estimates are ratioed down or up so that the final values
(EXaaa)sum exactly to total operating expenditures.In the
commerce and economic development program (EXCDS),exogenous state
local transfers (RLTX)are added in before the adjustment occurs.
University of Alaska expenditures (EXUA)are a large part of the
total education budget and are thus calculated separately.
Personnel expenditures by program category (EXPRaaa)is a
function of expenditures.For two program categories,education and
commerce.this is net of transfers to local government.Preliminary
estimates of total education transfers (RLTE994).tax sharing
(RLTT94).and revenue sharing (RLTRS4)come from the local
government model.These·are adjusted for cons istency wi th total
operating expenditures by RATIO 1 and then netted out of their
respective categories.
Total personnel expenditures (EXPR99)and state government wages
and salaries fiscal-year (WSGSFY)and calendar-year basis (WSGS)
follow.A variable,EXPRPER.allows an exogenous adjustment to the
ratio of total personnel expenditures and the sum of the components.
95-103:LOG(EXaaa4)=CbbA+CbbB*LOG(EXOPS)
104:RATI01 ==EXOPS/(EXEDS4+EXSSS4+EXHES4+EXNRS4+EXPPS4+
EXJUS4+EXCDS4+RLTX+EXTRS4+EXGGS4)
105:EXUA =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 197.7 ELSE EXUA(-l)*(EXOPSI
EXOPS(-l»
106-113:EXaaa =RATI01*EXaaa4
114:EXCDS =RATI01*(EXCDS4+RLTX)
115:RLTE99 =RLTE994*RATI01
116:EXEDSNT ==EXEDS-RLTE99
117:RLTT9 =RLTT94*RATI01
118:RLTRS =RLTRS4*RATI01
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119:EXCDSNT =EXCDS-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTX
120:EXPRCDS =C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
121:EXPREDS1 =C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D6l.75*EXEDSNT
122-129:EXPRaaa =C2A+C2B*EXaaa
130:EXPR99 =EXPRPER*(EXPREDS1+EXPRSSS+EXPRHES+EXPRNRS+
EXPRPPS+EXPRJUS+EXPRCDS+EXPRGGS+EXPRTRS+EXPRUA)
131:WSGSFY =PCWS1*EXPR99
132:LOG(WSGS)=C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75
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State Capital Expenditure Detail
Capital expenditures are divided into four categories according
to funding source and expenditure type.Highway and nonhighway
capital expenditures may be funded out of the general fund (EXGFCHY
and EXGFCNH)or from the capital projects fund which receives its
revenues from general obligation bond sales and federal capital
grants (EXCPSHY and EXCPSNH).
Each is a fixed portion of either general fund capital
expenditures (EXGFCAP)or capital project fund capital expenditures
(EXCPS).Total highway (EXHYCAP)and nonhighway (EXNHYCP)capi tal
expendi tures are also calculated.Ferry capi tal expendi tures
(EXCAPFR)are calculated separately since they represent purchases
outside the state.
The sources of revenues for the capital projects funds are
federal capi tal grants (EXCPSFEO)and general obligation bonds of
the state (EXCPSGOB).This latter funding source determines the
ongoing debt service requirement of the state (EXDSS)based upon the
schedule of debt outstanding from previous bond sales (EXDSSX)plus
debt service on debt newly incurred after 1982 (DEBTP82).This new
debt is paid off at a constant rate over a twenty-year period,like
a mortgage,according to the capital recovery factor (RORCRF).
The measure of newly incurred debt represents the princ ipal of
all debt incurred in the last twenty years.After that time,the
debt is subtracted from this total using EXCPSM lagged twenty
years.The proper measure of the current bonded debt of the state
is GODT,consisting of the schedule of debt outstanding from
previous bond sales (GODTX)and the remaining debt from bond sales
made after 1982.This debt is assumed paid off at the rate of
5 percent annually for twenty years.
The value added to the construction industry from state
government capital expenditures (XXVACAP)consists of the nominal
value of highway (XXVHY)and nonhighway (XXVNHY)value added,
deflated by the price deflator for construction (PDCON).Special
capital spending (EXSPCAP)contributes to nonhighway construction
value added.
137:EXGFCHY =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCHY1 ELSE 0.6*EXCAP*
(l-EXBOND)
138:EXGFCNH =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCNH1 ELSE 0.4*EXCAP*
(l-EXBOND)
139:EXCPSHY =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSHYI ELSE 0.25*EXCAP*
EXBONO
140:EXCPSNH =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSNH1 ELSE 0.75*EXCAP*
EXBOND
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141:EXHYCAP --EXGFCHY+EXCPSHY
142:EXNHYCP --EXGFCNH+EXCPSNH
143:EXGFCAP --EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH
144:EXCAPFR =EXCAPFR(-l)*(EXCAP/EXCAP(-l»
145:EXCPS =EXCPSHY+EXCPSNH
149:EXDSS =IF YR LT 1983 THEN EXDSSX ELSE EXDSSX+RORCRF*
DEBTP82(-1)
150:EXCPSFED =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 105.021 ELSE EXCPSFED
(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)
151:EXCPSGOB --EXCPS-EXCPSFED
152:EXCPSH =IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE EXCPSGOB
153:DEBTP82 =IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE DEBTP82(-1)+
EXCPSGOB-EXCPSH(-20)
154:GODT =IF YR LT 1983 THEN GODTX ELSE GODTX+EXCPSM(-19)*
O.05+EXCPSM(-18)*0.1+EXCPSH(-17)*0.15+EXCPSM(-16)*0.2+
EXCPSM(-15)*0.25+EXCPSH(-14)*0.3+EXCPSM(-13)*0.35+
EXCPSM(-12)*0.4+EXCPSM(-11)*0.45+EXCPSM(-10)*0.5+
EXCPSM(-9)*0.55+EXCPSM(-8)*0.6+EXCPSH(-7)*0.65+
EXCPSM(-6)*0.7+EXCPSH(-5)*0.75+EXCPSH(-4)*0.8+EXCPSH
(-3)*0.85+EXCPSM(-2)*0.9+EXCPSH(-1)*0.95+EXCPSGOB
146:XXVHY =C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1»
147:XXVNHY =C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(-1)+EXSPCAP(-1)-
EXCAPFR(-2)+EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP-EXCAPFR(-1»
148:XXVACAP ==(XXVHY+XXVNHY)/(PDCON/100)
B-55
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
State Fund Balances
The model calculates balances in the general fund (BALGF).the
Permanent Fund (BALPF).and the development fund (currently
non-existent)(BALDF)as well as the sum of the three (BAL99).
Two measures of current account balance are also calculated.
The first is the current account balance for the unrestricted
general fund account.defined to include Permanent Fund dividends
(BALCABBM)t and the second is the current account balance for the
general plus Permanent Fund accounts (BALCAB).
Two special indicators of the general fund balance are
calculated.The first shows only positive fund values (BALGFP).
The second shows positive changes in the balance (BALGFCP).
162:BALCAB ~~R99S-EXGF
163:BALCABBM ~~RSGFBM-EXGFBM
164:BAL99 =IF YR LT 1982 THEN BAL991 ELSE (IF Y~EQ 1982
THEN 3612 ELSE BAL99(-1)+R99S-EXGF)
165:BALGF =IF YR LT 1982 THEN BALGFI ELSE BAL99-BALPF-
BALDF
166:BALDF =IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALDFI ELSE BALDF(-l)+
EXDFCON
-167:BALPF =IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALPFI ELSE BALPF(-l)+
EXPFCON
168:BALGFP =IF BALGF LT 0 THEN 0 ELSE BALGF
169:BALGFCP =IF BALGF-BALGF(-l)GT 0 THEN BALGF-BALGF(-l)
ELSE 0
B-56
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
State Capital Stock and Operations.Maintenance,
and Replacement Costs
The real value (R.BALCAP)
,capital stock (PR.BALCP)are
depreciation rate (RORCPDEP).
and real per capita value of
calculated on the basis of
the
the
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A set of equations calculates the cost of operations and
maintenance (EXOM84)and replacement (EXRP84)of the state capital
stock put in place beginning in 1984 (BALCAP84).Operations and
maintenance is a constant proportion of the capital stock (EXOMCOST)
while replacement is the rate necessary to offset depreciation
(RORCPDEP).The running total for the capi tal stock put in place
beginning in 1984 is augmented annually by new addi tions to the
capi tal stock (EXCAPNEW).These annual new addi t ions are net of
replacement capital.consisting of the replacement of the
depreciated pre-1984 capital stock in the annual amount of EXCAPOLD
and replacement of the new stock (EXRP84).
170:R.BALCAP =R.BALCAP(-l)*(l/(l+RORCPDEP»+
EXCAP*100 I PDCON
171:PR.BALCP =R.BALCAP*1000/POP
172:EXCAPREP ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE RORCPDEP*BALCAP84
(-l)+EXCAPOLD*(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)
173:EXCAPNEW ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXCAP-EXCAPREP
174:BALCAP84 =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE BALCAP84(-1)*
PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)+EXCAPNEW
175:EXOK84 --BALCAP84(-1)*EXOKCOST
176:EXRP84 --RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-1)
B-57
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Local Fiscal Module Detail
Local Revenues
The primary sources of local government revenues (RL99)are the
local property tax (RLPT)and transfers from the state government
(RLT99).
Local Tax Revenues
The local property tax base has one component (LPTBl)which is
related to the level of personal income net of "enclave"employment
income.This component of the value of real property in the state
is based upon local assessments.A "full-value"assessment (LPTBlFV)
is calculated by the state for revenue sharing purposes and is
higher by the ratio of full value to local value (PARLVFV).
The second component of the local property tax base is the value
of petroleum-related capital equipment subject to,the state property
tax (PTBP9).This value is calculated by multiplying the tax (RPPS)
by the inverse of the tax rate (PTRTS).Only a small portion
(P9PTPER)of petroleum property actually lies within the boundaries
of local government,and it is this amount which is the actual base
for local taxes (LPTBP9).The complete local property tax base
(LPTB)is the sum of the endogenous component (LPTBl)and the
proportion (LPTRAT)of petroleum property wi thin local boundaries
which is actually taxable because of the per capita maximum
valuation restrict ion.Local property tax rece ipts (RLPTl)is then
a function of the value of property.If there is exogenous activity
which generates additional property taxes,this is added (RLPTX)to
get a grand total (RLPT).In addition,the model generates the
ttfull value"of local property (LPTBFV)which is the sum of
endogenous Itfull value"property and petroleum property within local
boundaries.Finally,the full value of personal property in the
state (PPVAL)is calculated as the full value of the local
endogenous base and the value of petroleum property.Other taxes
(RLOT)consist primarily of sales taxes.
177:LOG(LPTBl)=C51A+C57B~LOG(PI3(-1»+C57C*D7l.00
178:LPTBlFV ==LPTBl~l/PARLVFV
179:PTBP9 ==RPPS~(l/PTRTS)
180:LPTBP9 ==P9PTPER~PTBP9
181:LPTB =LPTBl+LPTBP9*LPTRAT
182:LPTBFV ~=LPTB1FV+LPTBP9
B-58
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May 1983
183:PPVAL ==LPTBIFV+PTBP9
184:RLPTl =C18A+C18B*LPTB
185:RLPT ==RLPTl+RLPTX
186:LOG(RLOT*1000/POP(-1»=C31A+C31B*LOG(PI(-1)*1000/POP(-1»
Local Transfers
The programs and formulas used to provide local government
assistance have changed considerably in recent years,making
modeling of these programs difficult.Preliminary values for all
types of local transfers are calculated based upon the formulas
currently used to determine transfer amounts (suff ix 4).These are
subsequently adjusted using RATI01 for consistency with total state
operating expenditures.
Total transfers (RLT99)consist of five categories as follows:
tax sharing (RLTT9),revenue sharing (RLTRS)~._education (RLTE99),
miscellaneous (RLTMS),and exogenous (RLTX).
The most important shared tax is a portion (PESLTC)of the
corporate tax before 1982.After 1981,this program was replaced by
the municipal assistance program (RLTMA).other shared taxes are
portions of ad valorem taxes (RLTVS)and other taxes (RLTOT),
primarily the fish processing taxes.
State local revenue sharing (RLTRS)is a separate category of
assistance,and miscellaneous transfers (RLTMS)is 'another.
Educational transfers is the largest category (RLTE99),
consisting of primary and secondary education transfers (RLTEA)and
other (nonprimary and nonsecondary)education transfers (RLTEB).
Primary and secondary education transfers are further divided into
the following categories:cigarette tax transfers (RLTEC),
Foundation program transfers (RLTEF),transportation transfers
(RLTET),and other education transfers (RLTEO).The Foundation
program is the basic program in support of education,and it is
based upon the number of students (ADMSD)and the basic
instructional uni t allotment (BIU)which is a basic funding level.
The number of students is calculated for district schools (ADMDIS)
and for the rural educational attendance area schools (ADMREA).
187:RLTCS4 =IF YR GT 1981 THEN o ELSE PESLTC*RTCS1
188:RLTVS4 C63A+C63B*RTVS
B-59
Institute of Social
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HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
189:RLTOT4 --PESLT*RTOTS
190:RLTHA4 =IF YR LT 1982
RLTHA(-l)/PDRPI(-l)/POP(-l)*POP*PDRPI
191:RLTT94 =RLTVS4+RLTOT4+RLTCS4+RLTMA4
192:RLTRS4 =RLTRS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
THEN o ELSE
193:RLTMS =IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 50.887 ELSE (IF EXSUBS EQ 0
THEN 0 ELSE RLTKS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU»
194:RLTEC4 --PECIG*RTCIS
195:ADMDIS --PAD1*POPSKUL(-1)
196:ADMREA ==PAD2*POPSKUL(-1)
197:ADMSD =ADMDIS+ADMREA
198:BIU =IF YR LT 1980 THEN BIU1 ELSE BIU(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)
199:RLTEF4 =C36A+C36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD
200:RLTET4 =(POP/POP(-l)+PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)*RLTET(-l)
201:RLTE04 =RLTEO(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
202:RLTEA4 ==RLTEC4+RLTEF4+RLTET4+RLTE04
203:RLTEB4 =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 7.5 ELSE RLTEB(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
NO\
i
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204:RLTE994 =RLTEA4+RLTEB4
205:RLTCS =RLTCS4*RATI01
206:RLTVS --RLTVS4*RATI01
207:RLTOT --RLTOT4*RAT I01
208:RLTMA =RLTHA4*RATI01
209:RLTEC --RLTEC4*RATI01
210:RLTEF --RLTEF4*RATI01
211:RLTET =RLTET4*RATI01
""'l
212:RLTEO =RLTE04*RATI01
--J
B-60
Institute of Social
-and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
213:RLTEA;=RLTEA4*RATI01
r
r
I
214:RLTEB;RLTEB4*RATI01
215:RLT99;RLTT9+RLTRS+RLTE99+RLTKS+RLTX
Other Local Revenues
r
I
Other local revenUes consist of
special petroleum-related federal
miscellaneous fees and charges (RLMC).
fees and charges is set to maintain
account for local government accounts.
federal transfers (RLTF),
transfers (RLTFPX),and
The level of miscellaneous
a zero balance on current
,.....
i
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,.....
!
,....
I
I
221:RLTF;RLTF(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
222:RL99l;;RLPT+RLOT+RLT99+RLTF+RLTFPX
223:RLMC;EL99-RL99l-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»
224:RL99;;RL99l+RLMC
Local Government Expenditures
Total local government expenditures (EL99)cons i st of several
components--education expenditures (ELED),non-education
expenditures (ELNEDl),and debt service expenditures (not including
those provided by state government)(ELBD)as well as exogenous
state-local transfers (RLTX),federal-local petroleum-related
transfers (RLTFPX),and miscellaneous state-local transfers
(RLTMS).Education expenditures are the sum of revenues from
state-local transfers (RLTE99)and those from local sources
(ELED1).Local education expenditures from own sources is a
function of personal income net of "enclave"employment income.
Non-education expenditures are determined in real terms as a
function of real disposable personal income.Debt service is a
function of the level of outstanding general obligation bonds
(GOBONDL).
The capital port ion of the education component of the budget
(ELEDCP)is a function of education expenditures in total (ELED).
The amount of capi tal expendi tures financed by general obligation
bonds grows with prices and per capita income.
Local government personnel expenditures (ELPERS)is calculated
from total local expenditures net of education capital expenditures
and debt service expendi tures.From this,local government wages
and salaries (WSGL)is calculated.
B-61
Institute of Social
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HAP Documentation
May 1983
Total state and local government expenditures (SLGEXP)are the
sum of state and local expendi tures net of state-local transfers.
Local (BALOCAL)and combined state and local (BALLANDS)current
account balances are calculated.
216:ELEDI =CllA+CllB*PI3(-1)
217:ELED =RLTE99+ELEDI
218:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D6l.77*GOBONDL(-1)+C14B*GOBONDL(-1)
219:ELNEDl/PDRPI =C16A+C16E*D8l.00+C16D*R.DPI8N(-1)+
C16B*D7l.00*R.DPI8N(-1)+C16C*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
220:EL99 =ELED+ELNEDI+ELBD+RLTX+RLTFPX+RLTMS
225:ELEDCP =C15A+C15B*ELED
226:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*(EL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
227:WSGL =C13A+PC13C*D8l.00+C13B*(ELPERS+ELPERS(-1»
228:GOBONDL =GOBONDL(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
229:SLGEXP ==EX99S+EL99-RLT99
230:BALOCAL ==RL99-(EL99-ELBD)
231:BALLANDS ==BALOCAL+BALCAB
B-62
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MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
B.4.Input Variables
A value for each of these variables for each year of simulation
must be entered by the user.
POLICY INPUTS
Values for these variables are likely to change from one
simulation to the next.
Employment
-
r
-
*EMAGRI
*EKCNXl
*EMCNX2
*EKFISH
*EKGC
*EKGK
*EMKXl
*EMKX2
*EKP9
*EKT9X
S~ate Expenditures
EXBOND
EXOrpCNT
EXDFI
EXPFBAK
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
EXPFl
EXPRPER
EXSAVX
EXSPCAP
EXSPLITX
EXSUBSI
agriculture
high wage (enclave)exogenous construction
normal wage exogenous construction
fish harvesting
civilian federal government
military active duty
high wage exogenous manufacturing
sectoral av~rage wage exogenous manufacturing
mining (including petroleum)
exogenous part of transportation
proportion of capital expenditures financed
by bonds
development fund withdrawal rate
development fund contribution rate
Permanent Fund reinvestment rate
extraordinary Permanent Fund contribution
Permanent Fund distribution rate
Permanent Fund contribution rate
percent adjustment to state personnel
expenditures in expansionary years
savings out of current revenues
special capital expenditures
operation expenditures as a proportion of
total
subsidies
'"""i
*Kay be provided by scenario generator model if desired.
B-63
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Growth Rates a -
GRDIRPU
GRRWEUS
GRUSCPI
Local Revenues
RLPTX
RLTFPX
RLTX
u.s.disposable income per capita
u.s.real average weekly earnings
u.s.consumer price index
exogenous property taxes
petroleum-related federal transfers
unspecified state-local transfers -.
State Petroleum Revenues
:lcRPBS
:lcRPPS
:lcRPRY
:lcRPTS
RP9X
RSFDNPX
*RTCSPX
bonus payments
property taxes
rents and royalties
severance taxes
unspecified revenues
petroleum-related federal-shared revenues
petroleum corporate income tax
State Nonpetroleum Revenues
"""I
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RSFDNX
RTCSX
Miscellaneous
*TOURIST
UUS
XXMX2
exogenous federal-state transfers
exogenous corporate income tax
tourist visitors
u.s.unemployment rate
gross product in low-wage exogenous
manufacturing -
*Kay be provided by scenario generator model if desired.
aUsed only with certain fiscal rule options:
GREXCAP -state capital expenditures
GREXOPS -state operating expenditures
GRRPCEX -real per capita state expenditures
GRSSCP -state per capita capital stock
B-64
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OTHER EXOGENOUS INPUTS
Values for these variables are less likely to vary across
simulations.
Dunimy Variables
D.gg A dummy variable with a value of unity in the year gg
only
D.gg.hh.A dummy variable with a value of unity from year gg to
year hh
D.ggDECj A dummy variable wi th a value of uni ty in year gg and
declining to zero in j years
Initial Values
BALggl Known historical values for the balance in the state
fund gg
BIUl Known historical values for basic instructional unit
for allocating state education funds to districts
.....EXaaal Known historical values for state expenditure category
aaa
PDUSCPIl Known historical values for USCPI
PR.DPIUl Known historical values for real per capita disposable
income in U.S.
VAEXI Known historical values for exemption value on federal
income tax
r-.
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WEUSl Known historical values for U.S.average weekly earnings
Impact Variables
BASaaaa
or
BASEaaaa
Values from a previously run "base case"used in
certain impact study calculations
B-65
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
State Personal Income Tax Variables
RTISXX
TCRED
TXBASE
TXCRPC
TXPTXX
TXRT
Adjustment of disposable income to cover lag in refund
of state personal income taxes after repeal
Individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77
Change in the floor of personal income tax rate schedule
State personal income tax credit adjustment
Allows model user to withold from state expenditures a
portion of any personal income tax reduction
Percentage change in state personal income tax rate
Native Income Variables
Nati ve employment rate obtained from the income
distribution model
ANCSA
EMNATX
Payment to
government
Act (ANCSA)
Alaska Natives by
under Alaska Native
federal
Claims
and state
Settlement
-
NCBP Bonus income to Natives from lease sales on Native lands
NCRP Nati ve recurrent income from petroleum development on
Native lands
PCNC1 Proportion of ANCSA
individuals
payments paid directly to
PCNC2
PCNC3
RNATX
SANCSA
Proportion of recurring income from petroleum
development on Native lands paid directly to individuals
Proportion of earnings on Native Corporation
accumulated capital paid directly to individuals
Native personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
Payment to Alaska Natives by state government under
ANCSA
Miscellaneous Exogenous Variables -
BADD Adjustment factor to account for birth of Native
children to non-Native women
B-66
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EXDSSX
GODTX
LPTRAT
PCOLART
PIPADJ
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Annual debt service payment to service general
obligation bonds outstanding at beginning of simulation
period
General obligation bonded indebtedness of the state
from debt incurred before 1983
Percentage of pipeline property within local
jurisdictions actually sUbject to local tax because of
limitations imposed by state statutes
The cost of living differential for federal employees
Ratio of "enclave"to regular construction wage rate
-
P9PTPER Percentage of petroleum property which is taxable by
state which falls within local taxing jurisdiction
YR Year
B-67
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.5.Variable and Parameter Name Conventions
Prefixes
A prefix not followed by a period indicates a variable within a
general category.
-I
!
I
BALaaa
BASaaaa
CEaaN
DPIaaa
ELaaa
EMaaa
EXaaa
EXPRaaa
GRaaa
NCaaa
NEMaaN
NWSaaN
PDaaa
PIaaa
POPaaa
Raaa
RLaaa
UNaaa
WRaaa
WRGaa
WSaaa
XXaaa
State government fund balance
Base level for a variable (used only in certain impact
analyses)
Proportion of Native employment in industry aa
Disposable personal income
Local government expenditure
Employment
State government expenditure variable
State government personnel expenditures
Growth rate
Native claims variable
Native employment
Native wages and salaries
Price index
Personal income
Population aggregate
State government revenue (except RLaaa)
Local government revenue
Unemployment
Average annual wage rate
Average annual wage rate growth rate
Wages and salaries
Gross product
A prefix followed by a period and a variable name indicates the
v~riable is operated on in the manner dictated by the prefix.
D.aa.aa Dummy variable wi th a value of unity for the indicated
range of years
B-69
DF.aaaa
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Variable deflated to 1982 base-year dollars (PDRPIBAS
is base-year index)
EH.aaaa Variable is a proportion of total employment (EM99)
EX.aaaa Variable is a proportion of total state general fund
expenditures (restricted and unrestricted)including
Permanent Fund dividends (EXGF)but excluding special
Permanent Fund contributions
EXBM.aaa Variable is a proportion of total state general fund
expenditures (unrestricted)including Permanent Fund
dividends plus special Permanent Fund contributions
(EXGFBK)
G.aaa Change in the level of the variable from the previous
year
IM.aaa Variable is difference calculated from a previously run
simulation with outputs specified by exogenous
variables with prefix BAS
INDEX.aa A specially constructed variable for monitoring model
simulation behavior
P.aaa Variable in per capita terms (POP)
PI.aaaa Variable is a proportion of personal income (PI)
POP.aaa Variable is a proportion of population (POP)-
R.aaa Variable is deflated to 1967 US price level (PDRPI)
PR.aaa Variable in real per capita terms (deflated using PDRPI
where 1967 US =100)-
RL99.aaa Variable is a proportion of total local revenues
Variable is a proportion of total state general and
Permanent Fund revenues (R99S)
RN.aaa
RS.aaaa
Variable
Permanent
Permanent
Permanent
is proportion of total state general and
Fund revenues net of regular and special
Fund contributions as well as reinvested
Fund earnings (R99SNT)
-.
RSBM.aaa Variable is a proportion of unrestricted state general
fund revenues net of regular Permanent Fund
contributions (RSGFBK)
B-70
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Suffixes
a.Industries:used with employment (EMaa),wage rate (WRaa).
wages and salaries (WSaa),and gross state product (XXaa).
AGRI
A9
CM
CN
CNNP
CNP
CU
DR
OW
09
FI
FISH
AFISH
GA
GC
GF
GL
GM
GS
GSFY
M9
M9P
MO
PRO
PROFIS
PU
P9
S9
SB
SP
SUP
TCU
T9
TOUR
DTOUR
STOUR
TTOUR
Agriculture
Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery
Communications
Construction
Nonpipeline Construction
Pipeline Construction (Premium Wage,Enclave)
Communications
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Total Trade
Finance-Insurance-Real Estate
Fi sh Harvesting
Fish Harvesting-Wages and Salary Component
State and Local Government
Federal Civilian Government
Federal Government (Military plus Civilian)
Local Government
Military
State Government
State Government (Fiscal Year)
Manufacturing
Exogenous Premium Wage Manufacturing
Endogenous Manufacturing
Proprietor
Proprietor-Fish Harvesting Component
Public utilities
Mining·
Total Services
Business Services
sUP +TCU
Trade,Finance,Service
Transport,Communication,Public utilities
Transportation
Tourism
Tourism-Retail Trade
Tourism-Services
Tourism-Transportation
B-71
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91
98
99
NT
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Unclass Hied
Total Civilian (Non-Ag.Wage &Salary
plus Proprietors)
Total Non-Ag.Wage and Salary
Total Non-Ag.Wage &Salary Plus Military
Grand Total
Non-Tourism
b.Components of Income:used with personal income (Plaa)
DIR
OLI
PRO
PR01
PROF
RADJ
SSC
TRAN
WS
3
8
Dividends,Interest,Rent
Other Labor Income
Proprietor Income
Nonfishing Proprietor Income
Fishery Proprietor Income
Residence Adjustment
Personal Contributions to Social Security
Transfers
Wages and Salaries
Personal Income Net of Enclave Employment
Income
Personal Income plus Residence Adjustment
-
c.State Expenditures by major program categories:used with expenditures ~
(EXaa)and personnel expenditures (EXPRaa)
COS
EOS
GGS
HES
GF
.GF8M
OF
PF
JUS
NRS
PPS
SSS
TRS
UA
Development
Education
General Government
Health and Social Services
General Fund
Unrestricted General Fund
Development Fund (hypothetical)
Permanent Fund
Justice
Natural Resources
Public Protection
Social Services
Transportation
University of Alaska
8-72
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
d.Special Suffixes
99 or 9 A grand total
1 A component of the total variable.or an
exogenous initial value
8 A component of the total variable
4 A preliminary estimate of the value for a
variable.prior to application of a ratio
X An exogenous variable
B-73
B-74
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
,-
caab
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
B.6.Parameter Definitions,Values,and Sources
a stochastic coefficient,where aa is a
number associated with a particular
equation and b is a letter associated
with the position within the equation
EXANNU
EXCAPIHP
EXCAPOLD
EXELl
EXEL2
EXEL3
EXEL4
EXEL5
EXEL6
EXLIH82
EXOHCOST
800
.1432
100
o
o
o
2500
.15
if EXRLOPS is in effect,the amount
of the annual annuity which contributes
to funding ftate operating expenditures;
mi 11 ion $
per capital impact state capital
expenditure used with fiscal rule
EXRL4
state spending to replace capital
stock put in place prior to 1984
elasticity of state expenditures with
respect to population
elasticity of state expenditures with
respect to prices
elasticity of state expenditures with
respect to real per capita personal
income
elasticity of state expenditures
with respect to personal income
elasticity of state expenditures
to personal income net of "enclave"
employment-related income (PI3),
elasticity of state expenditures
to population net of "enclave"
construction employment
constitutionally mandated 1982
spendi ng 1imit;mi 11 ion $
annual operations and maintenance
cost of incremental state capital
stock as a percentage of original
cost
8-75
set by model user at level consistent
with continued positive state treasury
balance and maximum expenditure levels
Goldsmith and Hogford,The Relationship
Between the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
&State &local Government Expenditures
Department of Administration,
Annual Financial Report
set by model user;default value con-
sistent with idea that expenditures
rise with population
set by model user;default value con-
sistent with idea that expenditures
rise with prices
set by model user;default value
assumes state operating expenditures
neither inferior or superior good
set by model user;default value
assumes state expenditures are
inferior goods
set by model user;default value
assumes state expenditures are
inferior goods
set by model user;default value
assumes state expenditures are
inferior goods
current law
author's estimate
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ""IHay1983!
EXOPSIMP 7.678 per capita impact state operation Goldsmith and Mogford,The Re1ation-
expenditure used with fiscal rule ship Between the Alaska Natural Gas -EXRl4 Pipeline and State and local
Government Expenditures
1""'\
EXRl1 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value
state expenditure growth based zero
primarily upon aggregate demand
~variables,including prices,
population,and income
EXRl2 0 policy switch for detennination of set by roode1 user;default value
state expenditure growth based upon zero
a specified exog~nous growth rate -EXRl3 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value
state expenditure growth based upon zero
a specified growth rate in real
per capita operating expenditures
and real per capita level of
capita 1 stock
EXRl4 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value
state expenditure growth based upon zero
a specified expenditure level per IlI!I!!limpactindividual(for use in
impact analysis)
EXRl40P 0 policy switch used with EXRl4 with set by model user;default value -value of one if enclave construction zero
employment not counted in impact
population ~
EXRl5 policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value
state expenditure growth based upon one
constitutionally imposed spending
1imi t
EXRlOP6 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value
state operating expenditure growth zero
based upon annual change in level
of general fund balance -
EXRlOP7 0 policy sw.itch for detennination of set by model user;default value
state expenditure growth based zero
upon saving a specified amount·.~
(EXSAVS)
...
8-76
B-77
PC13C
PC39A
PC39B
PCINOA
PCIVPY
PCNC4
PCNCSV
PCNCSVl
PCNCWS
-55
.5
.003
.1
.65
o
.5
.25
exogenous adjustment to force consistency
between local government personnel
expenditures and wages and salaries
miscellaneous employment within
agriculture-forestry-fisheries
industrial category;thousand
forestry employment in agriculture-
forestry-fisheries as proportion of
manufacturing employment
proportion of gap between average
industry employment share and
Native industry employment share
that is closed within one time
period;percent
ratio of military to federal civilian
wage rate
proportion of bonus income from
lease sales on Native lands
paid directly to individuals
proportion of Native corporation
income used for investment
proportion of bonus income from
lease sales on Native corporation
lands and retained by Native corpora-
tions which is used for investment
proportion of current expenditures
of Native Corporations paid in
wages and salaries
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
DOL Statistical Quarterly and Alaska
Economic Trends and U.S.Department
of Commerce Governmental Finances
DOL Statistical Quarterly
DOL Statistical Quarterly
author's estimate
Alaska Department of labor,
Statistical Quarterly,and U.S.
Dept.of Commerce,Bureau of Economic
Analysis personal income data
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
-
-
-
-
,-,
PCWSl
PCYNAl
.9 ratio of state government wage
and salary payments to personnel
expenditures
1.01545 proportion by which the ratio of
personal income to wages and
salaries for Natives exceeds
that of the total popUlation
Alaska Department of labor,
Statistical Quarterly,and Alaska
Dept.of Administration,Executive
Budget
1970 U.S.Census,public use samples
PORPIBAS 364.23 1982 Alaskan price level using
1967 U.S.as base;index
B-'78
variable PORPI in database
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
PECIG .625 proportion of cigarette tax receipts existing state tax law
paid to special fund;percent
PERNA 1 0 proportion of change in state author's estimate
employment rate reflected in
change in Native employment rate;
percent
PERNA2 .005 proportion of gap between Native author's estimate
and state employment rates that is
closed in one year;percent
PERNA3 percentage of Native corporation author's estimate
jobs held by Natives;percent
PESLT .4 proportion of "other"state taxes existing state tax law
shared with local government;percent
PESLTC .1 proportion of state corporate income existing state tax law
tax shared with local government;
percent
PFISHl .97 percentage of fish harvesting employ-DOL statistical Quarterly,BEA
ment reported as proprietors employment data,and G.Rogers,
Measuring the Socioeconomic
Impact of Alaska's Fisheries
PIDIST 0 model switch which results in
retrieval of Native employment
and wages and salaries from
r-income distribution model if
value of one is chosen
PNTGR .02 gross receipts per business exempt existing state tax law
from state gross receipts tax;
million $
PRINT2 0 variable from income distribution
model which allows results to be
printed if value of one is chosen
PTOURB -4.75 intercept term on tourist industry Improvements to Specification of the
employment equation HAP Hodel,ISER,January 1982
~PTOURD .4 proportion of tourist industry Improvements to Specification of the
employment in trade HAP Hodel,ISER,January 1982
I"'"PTOURE elasticity of tourism employment Improvements to specification of the
to growth in number of tourists HAP Hodel,ISER,January 1982
8-79
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation -May 1983
PTOURS .4 proportion of tourist industry Improvements to Specification of the -employment in services HAP Hodel.ISER.January 1982
PTOURT .2 proportion of tourist industry Improvements to Specification of the """employment in transportation HAP Hodel,ISER,January 1982
PTRTS .02 tax rate on state petroleum-related existing state tax law
property;percent I"!'!'I
MBASE 5413 1961 U.S.average wage paid in 1961 state government and employment
government data from U.S.Department of Commerce,"""'.Bureau of Economic Analysis
ROR .02 real rate of return on general author's estimate
fund balance;percent i"'l";
RORANGRO .08 rate at which state operating set by IOOdel user in conjunction with
expenditure annuity grows;percent EXANNU -
RORCPDEP .03 real rate of depreciation of state author's estimate
capital;percent -
RORCRF .08 capital recovery factor for cal-with r=.05 and n=20 years,the formula
cUlating annual servicing of state for capital recovery factor is
general obligation bonded debt;(r(l+r)n/((l+r)n-l».Assumi ng /!i!O:Il
percent r=.05 and n=20.this yields .08.
RORDISK .02 discount rate applied to future author's estimate
petroleum revenues to calculate
present value in 1982 dollars (OF.RSVP)-RORNC .01 nominal rate of return on accumulated author's estimate
capital of Native COrporations
RORPDF 0 real rate of return premium applied author's estimate ""'"to development fund over general fund;
percent
RORPPF .01 real rate of return premium applied author's estimate
to Penmanent Fund over general fund;
percent
"""I.
-
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i
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I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.7.Hodel Validation and Properties
Several types of analyses are done to test the validity of the
MAP model.
Statistical Tests
Stati stical tests are normally applied to the stochastic
equations of the model.All stochastic equations in the MAP model
are estimated using ordinary least squares regression.Two-staged
least squares estimations have been found in the past not to change
significantly the results of simulations.In general,specifications
for these equations are chosen which have good predictive qualities
(R 2 •standard error of regress ion)and structural properties
(t tests,F test).Sometimes,however,it is necessary to
compromise on the quality of the statistical tests of the model to
obtain an equation specification which does well in simulation.
This is because when simulating with all the equations together in a
model,equations that appear correct may not always interact to
produce reasonable results.
Individual equation statistical tests are applied during
estimation.At the same time,the stability of the structure of the
individual equations can be reviewed.As might be expected in the
rapidly evolving Alaskan economy,the structures of some equations
may need to be altered over time.
Historical Simulation
Second,the model is tested by seeing how accurately it can
predict the actual historical data upon which it is based (ex post
forecast).There are no formal statistical tests of this capability
except that a model that comes closer to the actual historical
values is better.One value of this test is that it indicates
variables or sections of the model which may require additional
attention.
The results of historical
the HAP model are presented
endogenous variables of the
salaries.and employment.
simulation of the current vers ion of
in Table B.7 for the most important
model:personal income,wages and
The results are presented for each variable in terms of a HAPE
value.which is the mean-absolute percent error of the predicted
value from the actual value.The results for the MAP Alask.a model
fall within the range reported for other regional econometric
models,and the pattern of forecast errors and percent errors shows
that the model has been successful in 'track.ing a historical period
during which significant growth and structural change occurred.
B-8l
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation """IMay1983
TABLE B.7.HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF
ECONOMIC MODULE
Pe~sona1 Income (million $)-
Histodca1 Simulated Pe~cent
Data Value Error Er~o~
1965 827.373 861.26 33.887 4.096
1966 894.177 923.523 29.345 3.282
1967 987.882 1000.51 12.624 1.278
1968 1068.36 1093.87 25.509 2.388
1969 1215.8 1214.67 -1.125 -0.093
1970 1388.01 1309.01 -78.999 -5.692
1971 1519.28 1459.68 -59.595 -3.923
1972 1677.57 1660.58 -16.991 -1.013
1973 1958.88 1939.59 -19.287 -0.985
1974 2391.46 2292.36 -99.098 -4.144 -1975 3454.69 3372.21 -82.486 -2.388
1976 4128.95 4450.14 321.195 7.779
1977 4260.16 4439.79 179.625 4.216
1978 4324.4358.82 34.816 0.805
1979 4554.4 4797.93 243.535 5.347
1980 5030.13 4972 .16 -57.971 -1.153 """I
1981 NA 5455.23 NA NA
Mean 2480.07 2682.43 29.061 0.613 !!!fI1!!.
Root Mean
Squared 2889.19 3146.19 119.69 3.678*
Standard *\Deviation 1530.72 1694.7 119.917 3.745 I
""""
*Root mean squa~ed error.
B-82
Institute of Social-and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
r-
TABLE B.l.HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF
ECONOMIC MODULE
Wages and Salaries (million $)
Historical Simulated Percent
Data Value Error Error
1965 121.2 156.122 35.523 4.926
1966 710.5 809.511 39.011 5.063
1961 851.1 814.314 22.614 2.655
1968 929.5 952.832 23.332 2.51
1969 1072.4 1058.19 -14.214 -1.325
1910 1203.2 1134.05 -69.15 -5.141
(-
1911 1308.4 1268.82 -39.516 -3.025
1972 1444.1450.06 6.058 0.42
r-1913 1566.9 1590.61 23.712 1.513
1914 2110.8 2003.12 -107.08 -5.073
1975 3412.9 3401.91 -4.992 -0.146
r""1976 4236.4450.14 214.742 5.069
1911 3781.61 3935.48 147.811 3.904
1978 3600.01 3553.85 -46.22 -1.284
iI"""1919 3802.52 3971 •59 175.064 4.604
1980 4219.91 4031.99 -181.923 -4.311
1981 NA 4444.2 NA NA
Mean 2189.85 2335.68 14.049 0.61
Root Mean,....Squared 2563.85 2133.04 98.85 3.689)!C
Standard
Deviation 1371.11 1462.81 101.055 3.758
i"""
)!CRoot mean squared error.
B-83
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
TABLE B.7.HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF
ECONOMIC MODULE
Nonagricu1ture Wage and Salary Employment -(thousands)
,.
Historical Simulated Percent
Data Value Error Error
,.,
1965 70.529 70.406 -0.123 -0.174
1966 73.195 73.975 0.78 1.066
1967 76.784 78.03 1.246 1.622
1968 79.803 81.068 1.265 1.585
1969 86.563 84.817 -1.746 -2.017
1970 92.465 88.837 -3.628 -3.924
1971 97.584 94.048 -3.536 -3.624
1972 104.243 100.943 -3.3 -3.165
1973 109.849 106.885 -2.964 -2.698 """'"
1974 128.164 121.019 -7.144 -5.574
1975 161.315 154.893 -6.422 -3.981
1976 171.185 169.594 -1.591 -0.929
1977 164.063 159.556 -4.507 -2.747
1978 163.293 157.095 -6.198 -3.796
1979 166.406 160.898 -5.508 -3.31 ~.
1980 169.609 166.281 -3.328 -1.962
1981 177.173.503 -3.497 -1.976
Mean 123.062 120.109 -2.953 -2.094
Root Mean
Squared 129.3 125.981 3.906 2.917*
Standard
Deviation 40.9 39.186 2.635 2.093 -
*Root mean squared error.
B-84
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity of simulation
and exogenous variable values has
sensitive to the elasticity of
spending levels,the labor force
wage rate growth as well as to the
Simulation Tests
results to changes in parameter
been investigated.The model is
the support sector,government
participation rate,and the real
exogenous employment variables.
-I
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!
r
After these foregoing tests have been made,the model is run
under different conditions to assess its reasonableness and
stability in as many types of situations as possible as well as its
abili ty to identify turning points.These tests include straight
simulation,impact analyses,simulation under conditions of no
growth,and simulation under conditions of decline.Certain
variables are monitored to make sure that their values remain within
a reasonable range.
Several ratios which are closely monitored are shown in
Table B.8 for a typical simulation.The civilian employment rate
(EHRATE)holds fairly constant and jumps during boom periods.The
ratio of disposable-to-total personal income (PI.DPI)trends
downward except during boom periods.The Alaskan price index
relative to the united States (PDRATIO)trends downward but ratchets
up during boom periods.The ratio of price-adjusted personal income
per capita in Alaska to the United States (INDEX.DI)jumps during
booms but eventually falls below one as it has been historically.
The ratio of the real wage in Alaska to the United States trends
upward slightly (INDEX.WG).The ratio of wage and salary to total
income falls (PI.WS98).The ratios of support (EK.EKSUP)and
infrastructure (EK.EKTCU)employment to total employment show
continued growth.The ratios of support (INDEX.Sl)and
infrastructure (INDEX.S2)employment to Alaskan real disposable
personal income are relatively stable.
B-85
SOURCE:HE.9
KEY:See text.
B-86 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research-MAP Documentation
May 1983,-
TABLE B.8.VARIABLES USED TO MONITOR SIMULATION
(continued)
r""
INDEX.S1 INDEX.S2 EM.EHTCU EM.EMSUP
!"""I
1982 0.046 0.012 0.083 0.315
1983 0.048 0.012 0.081 0.322
1984 0.05 0.012 0.082 0.33
1985 0.051 0.013 0.083 0.334
1986 0.052 0.013 0.083 0.336
~'*"'"1987 0.052 0.013 0.084 0.335
1988 0.053 0.013 0.084 0.334
1989 0.053 0.013 0.083 0.334
1990 0.053 0.013 0.084 0.334
1991 0.053 -0.013 0.082 0.339
1992 0.053 0.013 0.084 0.339
1993 0.053 0.013 0.083 0.346
1994 0.053 0.013 0.087 0.352
1995 0.053 0.013 0.087 0.358
F"
1996 0.053 0.013 0.088 0.362
1991 0.053 0.013 0.089 0.367-1998 0.053 0.013 0.09 0.373
I,
0.013 0.09 0.37819990.0-53
2000 0.053 0.013 0.091 0.384
2001 '0.054 0.013 0.091 0.389
2002 0.054 0.012 0.092 0.395
2003 0.054 0.012 0.092 0.4
2004 0.054 0.012 0.092 0.406
2005 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.411
r'"2006 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.417
2007 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.422
2008 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.428
2009 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.434
r'2010 0.054 0.012 0.094 0.439I
SOURCE:HE.9
KEY:See text.
B-81
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
Table B.9 shows the results of a no-growth,or flat projection
done to test the stabili ty of the model.In this projection,the
values for all exogenous variables associated with basic sectors of
the economy are set at constant levels.State government growth is
also assumed to be zero.Any growth in economic activity in the
absence of changes in these variables comes about as a result of one
of two things.First,real wage rate increases necessary to
maintain pari ty wi th real wage rate growth elsewhere in the Uni ted
States will lead to some increase in disposable personal income in
the absence of employment growth.Second,some activities which
have not bee explicitly identified as basic sector in the economic
scenario will continue to trend upward.
This case is unrealistic,both in its assumptions of no growth
and of a continuation of wage rate pari ty wi th the rest of the
uni ted states in a no-growth regional economy.Nevertheless,the
simulation is important because it allows us to investigate what the
simulation properties of the model are independent of and underlying
any particular economic scenario.
In general,in such a simulation,one would expect some growth,
but not a large amount.This is,in fact,what ~e observe.After
about 1984,when government spending finally .flattens out,
employment holds fairly constant.In fact,private sector employment
is growing;while public sector employment is falling as rIsIng
costs squeeze employment out of a constant-level budget.Population
grows slowly,but the dependency ratio increases significantly.
Thus,a rising real wage rate is offset to yield a fairly constant
level of real per capita disposable personal income.There is no
formal standard against which to measure this case except
reasonableness,economic theory,and the experience of other
regions.By these criteria,the simulation appears satisfactory.
B-88
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MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE B.9.NO-GROWTH PROJECTION RESULTS
-POP EK99 POPKIG POPNI9 DP13R
.....1980 401.362 203.217 -7.4 6.482 1359.48
1981 411.889 209.592 4.398 6.111 1402.16
1982 424.128 217.695 6.031 6.209 1459.44
1983 430.574 219.62 0.093 6.356 1479.34
1984 436.014 220.637 -0.829 6.261 1494.63
1985 440.699 221.032 -1.474 6.15 1506.18
1986 444.81 221.009 -1.926 6.026 1515.18
1987 448.634 220.876 -2.086 5.898 1523.73
,'-1988 452.308 220.763 -2.116 5.777 1532.67
1989 455.854 220.68 -2.136 5.669 1542.04
1990 459.328 220.667 -2.112 5.572 1552.06
1991 462.745 220.728 -2.085 5.488 1562.83
1992 466.104 220.849 -2.069 5.414 1574.21
1993 469.43 221.045 -2.037 5.349 1586.31
1994 472.719 221.303 -2.017 5.292 1599.04
1995 '475.981 221.626 -1.993 5.241 1612.41
1996 479.22 222.01 -1.971 5.195 1626.41
1997 482.439 222.459 -1.949 5.153 1641.09
1998 485.635 222.96 -1.933 5.113 1656.32
1999 488.818 223.523 -1.909 5.075 1672 .18
2000 491.974 224.131 -1.899 5.038 1688.55
KEY:POP
EM99
POPKIG
POPNI9
DP13R
Kode1 run:
Population
Employment
Net migration
Natural Increase
Real disposable income
January 1982 using an earlier version of economic
model.
B-89
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
-TABLE B.9.NO-GROWTH PROJECTION RESULTS
(continued)-DPIXR EHGA DPIRPC EMRATE PDRATIO
-1980 O.37.282 3388.3 0.476 1.296
1981 0 41.522 3404.12 0.48 1.293 -1982 O.45.884 3441.18 0.485 1.289
1983 O.46.072 3435.74 0.482 1.289
1984 O.45.931 3427.97 0.479 1.288
1985 O.45.732 3417.75 0.474 1.288
1986 O.45.307 3406.28 0.469 1.288
1987 O.44.841 3396.31 0.465 1.288 -1988 O.44.391 3388.48 0.461 1.288
1989 O.43.936 3382.67 0.457 1.288
1990 O.43.497 3379.04 0.453 1.288 -
1991 O.43.073 3377.36 0.45 1.288
1992 O.42.655 3377 .44 0.447 1.288
1993 O.42.255 3379.29 0.444 1.288 •..·'1
1994 O.41.864 3382.7 0.441 1.288
1995 O.41.486 3387.62 0.438 1.288 _.
1996 O.41.118 3393.95 0.436 1.288
1997 O.40.763 3401.6 0.434 1.287
1998 O.40.417 3410.58 0.432 1.287
1999 O.40.084 3420.8 0.43 1.287 -,
2000 O.39.756 3432.14 0.429 1.287
KEY:DPIXR
RHGA
DPIRPC
EMRATE
PDRATIO
Model run:
Real disposable income associated wi th premium wage
construction employment
State and local government
Real disposable income per capita
Civilian employment rate
Alaskan relative price index
January 1982 using an earlier version of economic
model.
B-90
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Some Properties of the New Model
Important properties of the model can be observed by examlO1ng
select impact experiments.Table B.lO shows the results of a
one-time increase in construction employment of 1,000 in 1984.The
upper portion of the table is premium wage,remote site,and enclave
employment (EMCNXl),while the lower is regular construction
(EMCNX2).This exercise,although unlikely to be encountered in any
actual situation,demonstrates several model features.
First,the size of the employment impact multiplier is
demonstrated to be 1.48 for regular construction and 2.33 for
special construction.It can be shown by further impact tests that
the impact multiplier for other basic sectors is smaller.For
example.for federal government employment,it is approximately
1.4.Thus.the size of the impact multiplier varies with the type
of basic (or exogenous)change which occurs,and its value is within
a reasonable range.The total employment effect includes,in
addition to the direct employment,the indirect employment (which an
1-0 analysis would measure),the induced employment (which an
augmented 1-0 model that included consumer spending would measure),
the investment effect (which is endogenous to the MAP model but
treated as exogenous in most models including 1-0 models),and'the
structural change effect.This last effect consists of new types of
activities stimulated by changing economic opportunities produced by
the direct employment.A static model would capture only the first
or the first and second components of nondirect employment,and a
growth model is necessary to capture all effects.The MAP model
does this.
Second,if the exogenous change is not sustained,the
impact will not be sustained but will diminish over
eventually disappear.The total effect is felt over a
several years rather than instantaneously.Population
dissipated more slowly than employment.
employment
time and
period of
impact is
Table B.ll presents a more likely time pattern for exogenous
impact--that of the construction of the natural gas pipeline.
In contrast to these impact multipliers,a final impact
analysis,reported in Table B.12.shows the effect of an increase in
construction employment of 1,000 sustained in all future years.
This clearly puts the economy onto a new long-run growth trajectory
after about four years.The employment and population responses are
larger than in the case of an impulse-type impact because the higher
level of activity is permanent and causes a permanent response in
other sectors of the economy.
B-91
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ."""1
May 1983
TABLE B-10.IMPACTS OF A ONE TIME INCREASE -IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
(thousands)
Premium Wage,Remote Site,Enclave Employment (EMCNX1)
EKCNX EMCN EKTCU EMSUP EMGA EM99 POP ~
1984 1.1.302 0.164 0.602 0.112 2.332 2.23
1985 O.0.143 0.011 0.163 0.023 0.366 1.374
1986 O.0.013 0.029 0.2 0.065 0.329 0.836
1987 O.0.007 0.016 0.125 0.062 0.227 0.69 HQ..
1988 O.0.006 0.013 0.096 0.041 0.167 0.597
1989 O.0.002 0.005 0.046 0.02 0.08 0.471 -1990 O.0.001 0.004 0.03 0.008 0.046 0.392
1991 O.0.001 0.002 0.018 0.006 0.029 0.326
1992 0 O.0.001 0.011 0.002 0.016 0.219
1993 O. O.
0.001 0.006 -0.001 0.006·0.219 -
Regular Construction Employment (EMCNX2)
EMCNX EMCN EKTCU EMS UP EHGA EK99 POP _.
1984 1.1.066 0.061 0.191 0.06 1.482 1.415
1985 O.0.026 0.017 0.326 0.046 0.444 0.947
1986 O.0.012 0.029 0.186 0.056 0.304 0.654
1987 O.0.009 0.02 0.147 0.071 0.264 0.625 -,
1988 O.0.008 0.019 0.139 0.063 0.246 0.598
1989 O.0.004 0.007 0.066 0.035 0.12 0.464
1990 O.0.002 0.006 0.043 0.014 0.07 0.386
1991 O.0.001 0.004 0.028 0.011 0.048 0.327
1992 O.0.001 0.002 0.018 0.006 0.03 0.281
1993 O.O.0.001 0.01 0.002 0.014 0.223
KEY:EMCNX
EMCN
EKTCU
EMSUP
EKGA
EK99
POP
Exogenous construction employment
Endogenous construction employment
Transportation/communication/public utility employment
Trade/finance/service employment
State/local government employment
Total employment
Population
B-92
-
rr-.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE B.ll.GAS PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACT
-
-
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
EMCNX
0.217
0.217
0.563
2.435
7.103
10.589
6.074
0.468
O.
O.
O.
O.
O.
O.
O.
POP
0.446
0.679
1.501
5.718
17.205
30.176
28.865
19.079
15.158
13.52
12.368
11.356
10.465
9.672
8.948
EMCN
0.273
0.296
0.731
3.113
9.195
14.162
9.09
1.661
0.383
0.263
0.226
0.2
0.182
0.168
0.157
R.WR98
9.793
9.094
23.039
99.17
279.762
430.496
243.789
20.273
-6.676
-4.645
-2.711
-1.324
-0.238
0.445
0.883
EKTCU
0.032
0.032
0.085
0.344
0.926
1.12
0.76
0.438
0.439
0.35
0.298
0.264
0.243
0.227
0.216
PR.PI
0.383
-0.871
-0.868
0.055
3.57
-3.852
-21.512
-37.527
-41.664
-44.16
-46.242
-46.492
-44.387
-41.465
-38.152
EKSUP
0.116
0.137
0.345
1.351
4.001
6.442
5.252
3.05
2.396
1.77
1.375
1.104
0.93
0.807
0.721
HH
0.154
0.235
0.52
1.975
5.939
10.428
10.025
6.703
5.376
4.831
4.454
4.128
3.843
3.592
3.364
EMGA
0.013
0.017
0.046
0.184
0.538
0.942
1.513
1.453
1.329
1.088
0.882
0.732
0.624
0.541
0.472
WS98
21.582
23.191
62.965
289.434
959.137
1583.71
1116.76
288.535
156.395
130.207
114.992
105.055
99.582
96.094
93.887
EM99
0.465
0.515
1.293
5.347
15.713
24.302
17.84
7.101
4.89
3.736
2.993
2.477
2.131
1.878
1.689
!~
KEY:EMCNX
EMCN
EKTCU
EMSUP
EMGA
EM99
POP
R.WR98
PR.PI
HH
WS98
Exogenous construction employment (thousand)
Endogenous construction employment (thousand)
Trans/comm/pub1ic utility employment (thousand)
Trade/finance/service employment (thousand)
State/local government employment (thousand)
Total employment (thousand)
Population (thousand)
Real wage rate (1967 U.S.$)
Real per capita personal income (1967 U.S.$)
Households (thousand)
Wages and salaries (million $)
B-93
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE 8.12.IMPACTS OF A SUSTAINED INCREASE .J!!!I'!!
IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
Regular Construction Employment (EKCNX2)-
EKCNX EKCN EMTCU EKSUP EMGA EM99
1984 1.1.066 0.061 0.191 0.06 1.482
1985 1.1.078 0.072 0.5 0.067 1.845
1986 1.1.077 0.097 0.656 0.128 2.104 -1987 1.1.084 0.111 0.765 0.196 2.315
1988 1.1.093 0.126 0.871 0.253 2.518
1989 1.1.097 0.128 0.906 0.281 2.593
1990 1.1.099 0.131 0.927 0.284 2.625 -
1991 1.1.103 0.135 0.949 0.294 2.667
1992 1.1.104 0.136 0.971 0.297 2.698 -1993 1.1.105 0.139 0.995 0.301 2.733
1994 1.1.107 0.142 1.016 0.303 2.763
1995 1.1.109 0.145 1.04 0.304 2.797 !"I'll,
1996 1.1.111 0.148 1.067 0.308 2.836
1997 1.1.113 0.152 1.096 0.31 2.876
1998 1 1.115 0.155 1.126 0.309 2.915 ~
1999 1.1.118 0.159 1.158 0.009 2.956
2000 1.1.121 0.163 1.192 0.309 3.002
POP R.WR98 PR.PI HH WS98
1984 1.415 21.281 19.082 0.489 55.453
1985 2.299 16.125 14.656 0.797 57.941
1986 2.864 12.871 12.328 0.995 61.668 .-,
1987 3.387 10.348 10.133 1.179 65.945
1988 3.874 9.801 9.948 1.351 74.516
1989 4.227 9.75 8.508 1.478 82.012 -1990 4.491 9.312 7.113 1.574 94.184
1991 4.73 10.738 6.332 1.663 103.621 -1992 4.938 8.539 5.121 1.741 109.957
1993 5.101 9.512 4.969 1.804 119.93
1994 5.267 11.059 4.375 1.869 130.977
1995 5.431 11.691 3.934 1.934 142.215 -
1996 5.58 12.027 3.594 1.994 154.238
1997 5.717 12.215 3.383 2.051 167.312 -,1998 5.845 12.629 3.324 2.104 181.758
1999 5.971 12.914 3.305 2.157 197.309
2000 6.095 13.203 3.336 2.209 214.352
KEY:See Table 8-11.
B-94
8-95
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
The large size of this impact is due to several factors.First,
the measure of exogenous impact in Table B.12 is only construction
employment (including engineers.managers.and clerical).The
actual construction of a project like a pipeline involves,in
addi tion to construction employees,a substantial support staff in
transportation.trade,and services.Thus,the direct employment
observed to be directly associated with construction will be larger.
by perhaps one-third than the direct construction employment.(For
example,only about 68 percent of Alyeska pipeline employment was
categorized as construction.)In the model,this support employment
appears with indirect support employment.Second in the model,
investment is endogenous rather than exogenous,and this increases
the size of any impact response because investment activity is a
result of an increase in the basic sector.Finally,the model
describes the development process within the economy.and this is
reflected in impact analysis.The economic development process may
be described as an increase in the ratio of support-to-basic
activity.Obviously,if the average ratio of support-to-basic
employment is increasing,then the incremental or marginal ratio
must be above the average ratio.
B-96
-
.,
-
I"""
I
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentatlon
Hay 1983
8.8.Input Data Sources
Individual Items
ANCSA
BAOD
-I
BAl99 1
8AlOFl
BAlGFl
JI,If1I4 BAlPFl
BASEMCNX
8ASEPOP
F
8ASEXCAP
I"""
BASEXGF
I"'"
payment to Alaska Natives by federal
and state government under Alaska
Native Claims Settlement Act;
million $
birth adjustment factor to account
for birth of Native children to
non-Native women
initial combined state fund balances;
mi 11 ion $-
initial state development fund
(hypothetical)balance;million $
initial state general fund balance;
mi 11 ion $
initial state Permanent Fund balance;
mi 11 ion $
a base case vector of EMCNX values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variable EXRl4
a base case vector of POP values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variable EXRl4
a base case vector of EXCAP values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variables EXRl4
base case expenditure value to be
placed in impact run to calculate
difference in state expenditures
in real per capita tenms
B-97
based on the estimate that $690 million
of the original $962.5 million remained
to be paid out at the start of J977.
Payments increase when Prudhoe 8ay oil
production begins and cease in 1981.
See Alaska Native land Claims,Arnold
zero in simulation
historical data
historical data
historical data
historical data
default values all one;alternate
values obtained from a base case
default values all one;alternate
values obtained from a base case
default values all one;alternate
values obtained from a base case
default values all one;alternate
values obtained from a base case
BASEXOPS
BASPORPI
BWl
D.80DEC6
EHAGRI
EHCNXl
EMCNX2
EMFISH
EMGC
EMGM
EHMXl
a base case vector of EXOPS values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variables EXRL4
base case value of RPI to be input
into impact run to calculate dif-
ference in state e~pendltures in
real per capita tenns;inde~
initial value of the Basic Instructional
Unit for School Foundations'distribution
program;thousand $
dummy variable taking value of one in
year or interval indicated;unit
dummy variable with value of unity in
1980,tapering off to zero in 6 years,
reflecting the fact that Alaskan wage
rates are "sticky downward"
agricultural employment component of
agriculture/forestry/fisheries (EHA9);
thousands
"enclave"or premium wage construction
employment;thousand
non-"enclave"exogenous construction
employment;thousand
fish harvesting employment;thousand
federal civilian employment;thousand
federal military employment;thousand
premium wage manUfacturing employment;
thousand
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation ""'"
May 1983
-default values all one;alternate
values obtained from a base case -
default values all one;alternate
values obtained from a base case
zero in simulation
-
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVElOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVElOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVElOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
EHMX2
EHNATX
EHP9
low wage manufacturing employment;
thousand
Native employment rate obtained from
the income distribution model;percent
mining employment;thousand
B-98
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
values derived from income distribu-
tion model (currently inoperative)
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
-.
i
~
El1T9X large pipeline project-related trans-
portation employment;thousand
r~
EXBONO proportion of state capital expenditures....funded by capital projects funds;percent
EXCAPl initial state capital expenditure level;
million $
EXCP$HYl initial highway construction expenditures
out of state capital project construction
funds;million $
EXCPSNHl construction expenditures (nonhighway)
lRiffJ out of capital project construction
funds at the state level;million $
EXOFl percent of state current account balance
placed into development fund (hypo-
thetical);percent
EXOFPCNT development fund (hypothetical)with-
drawals as percent of earnings;percent
F'"EXOSSX annual debt service payment to service
general obligation bonds outstanding
at beginning of simulation period;
,-million $
EXGFOlYl initial general fund capital expenditure--
Department of Highways;million $
EXGFCNH1 initial general fund capital expenditures---
all but Department of Highways;.-mi 11 ion $
EXOPS1 initial total state operating expenditures
net of debt service and University of
Alaska nongeneral fund assistance;it is
the sum of the 9 functional categories;
million $
EXPF1 percent contribution from available
funds to Permanent Fund;percent.....I
EXPFBAK percent of Permanent Fund earnings
r--plowed back into Permanent Fund;
percentage
,-B-99
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Alyeska employment based upon Alaska
Department of Labor estimates;
additional employment from
OEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
historical data
historical data
estimated from Department of
Administration,Executive Budget
estimated from Department of
Administration.Executive Budget
Department of Administration,
Annual Financial Report
estimated from Department of
Administration,Executive Budget
estimated from Department of
Administration,Executive Budget
estimated from Department of
Administration,Executive Budget
present law requires 25 percent
contribution rate on areas leased
before 1981 and 50 percent subsequently
present law directs all permanent
fund earnings into general fund
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
EXPRPER
EXSAVX
EXSPCAP
EXSPLITX
EXSUBSl
GODTX
GRDIRPU
GREXCAP
Permanent Fund contributions
appropriated from the general fund;
mi 11 ion $
percent of Permanent Fund earnings
transferred to general fund which are
distributed to individuals;percent
adjustment to state personnel expendi-
tures data for consistency with state
government employment data
if EXRlOP7 is invoked in determination
of state operating expenditures,this is
the amount of revenues not spent;million $
special state capital appropriations;
mill ion $
the target allocation to operations
when state spending falls below the
authorized spending limit;percent
initial values for state SUbsidy pro-
grams initiated after 1980;million $
general obligation bonded indebtedness
of the state from debts incurred
before 1983;million $
annual growth rate of U.S.real
disposable personal income per
capita;percent
growth rate of state capital expendi-
tures if fiscal rule EXRl2 is used
8-100
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
historical data
author's estimate
author's estimate
zero in default case
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
Department of Administration,
Annual Financial Report
Between 1950 and 1977,the average
annual growth rate of real disposable
personal incomes was 2.2 percent.
Within the period,the growth ranged
from 1.23 percent in the period 1950
to 1960 to 2.98 percent in the period
1960 to 1970.The simulation values
are based upon slower-than-normal
growth in the early 1980s ,with a
gradual return to a long-run trend
somewhat below the historical rate.
See U.S.Dept.of Commerce,Bureau of
Economic Analysis,The National Income
and Product Accounts of the U.S.
1929-74 &Survey of Current Business
inoperative in default case
-
-
-
-
GREXOPS
GRRPCEX
GRRWEUS
GRSSCP
GRUSCPI
nominal growth rate for state operating
expenditures if EXRL4 is chosen in the
state operating expenditure equation;
percent
growth rate real per capita state
operating expenditures if fiscal
rule EXRL3 is used
annual growth rate of real U.S.
average weekly earnings;percent
growth rate of real state capital
stock per capita when fiscal policy
variable EXRL3 is used
annual growth rate of U.S.consumer
price index;percent
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
inoperative in default case
inoperative in default case
the nominal historical annual average
growth rate has varied with the rate of
inflation.Its values are as follows:
1960-65,3.34\;1965-10,4.6\;1910-75,
6.52\;1915-11,7.53\.wages are assumed
in the projection period to grow faster
than the price level,implying a produc-
tivity increase of a similar magnitUde.
See U.S.Dept.of labor,Bureau of Labor
Statistics,Monthly labor Review
Historical annual average growth rates
of the consumer price index are as
follows:1960-65,1.3\;1965-10,
4.2\;1910-15,6.7\;1915-11,6.1\.
The simulation values are based upon
projections by the Alaska Department
of Revenue.See also U.S.Dept.of
Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Survey of CUrrent Business
LPTRAT
,~
NCBP
NCRP
r
"""Ii
percentage of pipeline property within
local jurisdictions actually subject
to local tax because of limitations
imposed by state statutes;percent
bonus income to Natives from lease
sales;mi 11 ion $
Native 'recurrent income from petroleum
development on Native land;million $
B-101
based upon Department of Community
and Regional Affairs,Alaska Taxable
author's estimate
author's estimate
P9PTPER
PCNCl
PCNC2
PCNC3
PCOlART
PDUSCPIl
PIPAOJ
PR.OPIUl
RlPTX
RlTFPX
RlTX
RNATX
percentage of petroleum property which
is taxable by state which falls
within local taxing jur;sdict;on;
percentage
proportion of ANCSA payments paid
d;rectly to individuals;percent
proportion of recurr;ng income from
petroleum development on Native lands
pa;d directly in individuals;percent
proport;on of earnings on Native
corporation accumulated capital paid
directly to individuals;percent
cost of living differential for
federa 1 eflllloyees;percentage
initial value for U.S.consumer price
1ndex;index
ratio of "enclave"to regular construc-
tion eflllloyee wage rate
initial value for U.S.real per capita
disposable personal income;$
exogenous local property tax receipts;
mi 11 ion $
petroleum-related federal-local transfers;
mill ion $
exogenous state-local transfers;million $
Native personal income as percent of total
personal income calculated using ;ncome
distribution model
B-102
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Department of Community and
Regional Affairs,Alaska Taxable
based upon a 10\distribution to
Stockholders in village corporations
and a 45\distribution to at-large
stockholders;see Alaska Native
land Claims,Arnold
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
historical data
assumed constant based upon ratio of
wages paid to heavy construction and
all other construction categories
during Alyeska pipeline construction
period;see Alaska Department of labor,
Statistical quarterlY
historical data
zero in default case
author's estimate
zero in default case
values derived from income
distribution model;currently
inoperative
-
-
....
I
-
....
r
....
RP9X
RPBS
RPPS
RPRY
RPTS
RSFDNPX
RSFDNX
RTCSPX
RTCSX
RTISXX
SANCSA
TCRED
TOURIST
TXBASE
TXCRPC
TXPTXX
exogenous miscellaneous petroleum
revenues;million $
state petroleum bonuses;million $
state petroleum property tax;million $
state petroleum royalty revenues;
mi 11 ion $
petroleum production taxes consisting
of oil and gas severance tax;million $
federal-state shared petroleum royalties;
mi 11 ion $
exogenous federal-state transfer
payments;million $
state corporate tax receipts fram
petroleum sector;million $
exogenous corporate income tax;
mi 11 ion $
adjustment of disposable income to cover
lag in refund in state personal income
taxes after repeal;million $
payments to Alaska Natives under ANCSA
out of state royalty revenues;million $
individual tax credit beginning after
12/31/77;dollars
number of tourist visitors to Alaska;
thousands
change in the floor of personal income
tax rate schedule;units
state personal income tax credit
(percentage of tax liability)
adjustment;percentage
allows model user to withhold from
state expenditures a portion of any
personal income tax reduction;percent
B-103
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
author's estimate
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
author's estimate
default value is zero
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
zero in default case
author's estimate
16 percent of state royalty revenues
until $493.1 million paid out .
zero in default case
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
zero in default case
zero in default case
default value is zero
-Instltute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentat1on ~
Hay 1983
zero in default caseTXRT
illS
VAEX1
WEUS1
percentage change in state personal
income tax rate;percentage
U.S.unemployment rate;percent
value of a personal exemption on
personal lncome tax;dollars
initial value for average weekly U.S.
wage rate;$
author's estlmate
author's estimate
historical data
-
-
XXHX2
YR
large projection manufacturing real
gross product
year
zero 1n default case
-
INPUT DATA ARCHIVES
~
I.
Historical Data
AKDATA
AKRAW1
AKRAW2
AKRAW3
AKRAW4
AKRAWS
All historical data series which are either (1)used
in regress10n analysis,(2)are requ1red to provide a
startup value for simulation,or (3)lnteresting and
relevant but not used in the model or not necessary to
model simulation (created by MACRO AB3HERGE fran raw
data files).
Raw eIll>loyment and wages data fran Alaska Department
of Labor,Statistical Quarterly.
Raw state expenditures data fran Office of the
Governor,Executive Budget.
Raw state budget data fran Alaska Department of
Adm1nistration,Annual F1nancia1 Report.
Raw state revenue data fran Alaska Department of
Revenue,Revenue Sources and Petroleum Revenue
Forecast.
Raw state income data from U.S.Department of
Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis,unpub11shed
printouts.
B-104
-
-
-
AKRAW6
AKRAW1
AKRAw:!
AKRAW9
AKHIST
Raw local fiscal data from U.S.Department of
carmerce,Bureau of Census,Government Fi nances and
State Government Finances.
Raw data from miscellaneous sources.
Alaskan gross state product data from model IPDAK.
National variables from various sources.
Data created by transformations of raw data in
archives AKRAWl to AKRAW9 (using A83TRANS).
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
f1ay 1983
SilTlllation Data
-
-
CONHIST
CONTROL
FLAT
STARTUP
POPST2
Startup and control data specifically used for
historical silTlllation of the economic model.
Default values for all exogenous and policy variables
for projective silTlllation.In certain instances,
historical data is also included.Many of these
variables are overridden in silTlllation by the scenario
model output.
Constant levels for exogenous employment variables
used to test model steady state properties.
Startup va 1ues for a11 endogenous vari ab 1es in the
economic and fiscal cooponents of the model for which
a complete historical time series (up to the last year
before the first year of silTlllation)does not exist.
The values contained in these data files are values
specifically created for model silTlllation and should
not be used for any other purpose.In most cases,the
specific value for the variable is immaterial to the
output of the silTlllation since the purpose of these
variables is to give TROLL an initial value from which
to search for a solution to the silTlllation.
Startup va 1ues for a11 endogenous var i ab 1es in the
popUlation component of the model for which a complete
historical time series (up to the last year before the
first year of silTlllation)does not exist.The values
contained in these data files are values specifically
created for model silTlllation and should not be used
for any other purpose.In most cases,the specific
value for the variable is immaterial to the output of
the silTlllation since the purpose of these variables is
to give TROll an initial value from which to search
for a solution to the silTlllation.
8-105
8-106
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
-.
-
-
-
......
B.9.Programs for Kodel Use
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
-
A83DEFLT
A83FLAT
A83INIT
A83MERGE
A83REG
A83RUN
A83RUNCD
A83RUNH
A83'rRANS
A83XPAR
LOOK
Deflates user-specified simulation output to 1982
real dollars using PDCPI
Sets searches to perform test simulation with
constant exogenous employment levels
Prints selected simulation results and compares
values to actual historical data
Combines individual historical data archives into a
single archive called AKDATA
Sets searches for regression analysis
Sets searches and calls state model (A83.2)for
simulation
Sets searches and calls regionalization model
(A83.CD)for disaggregation of employment and
population to census division level.
Sets searches and calls model for historical
simulation
Performs transformations on raw data files to
create archive AKHIST
Prints model economic parameter values
Lists all archives in specified account
B-107
8-108
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
-
-
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B.lO.Model Adjustments for Simulation
After preliminary estimation of all parameters and construction
of the model as well as whenever significant new data becomes
available,the model must be adjusted for simulation.The
objectives of the adjustments are to initialize the model so that
simulation values begin as closely as possible to actual historical
values,to correct any imbalances wi thin the model structure which
show up in initial simulations,or to handle special conditions
which arise each year as the structure of the economy evolves.
Kodel initialization is difficult because the data for a particular
year becomes available over a period of more than one year.Thus,
at any point in time the most current hi storical data available will
vary over a two-year period,depending upon the variable and
source.As a general rule,the most important variables for
initializing the model are employment in total and by sector
(1982 preliminary data),total population (1982),wage rates by
industry (1980),and the price level (1982).
The following is a discussion of all adjustments and
initialization procedures used in the economic and fiscal modules in
the spring of 1983.
Wage rate intercept adjustments.Combined wage rates for
agriculture/forestry/fisheries and manufacturing (WRK9A9)as well as
communications with pUblic utilities (WRCKPU)are stochastically
estimated over the historical period.For simulation,the
intercepts on the wage rate equations in these sectors are
initialized to their most current known values (C62A,C70A.C74A.
and C95A).
The intercept term in the equation determinirig the federal
civilian wage rate is adjusted upward (C89A).The rationale for
this is that the equation accurately reflects the long-term trend of
the wage rate growing with overall productivity of the labor force
but does not reflect short-run cyclical behavior.Thus.in a deep
recession year when the real average wage rate in the private sector
falls.one would not expect the real wage rate in federal civilian
government to immediately fall in response.
Price ratio adjustment.The term relating the relative Alaskan
price level (PDRATIO)to the growth in local support sector
employment has the correct sign and is significant in the regression
but in simulation performs poorly.Its value (C67A)is increased so
that the Alaskan price level is more responsive to growth in support
employment.The rationale for this adjustment is that the Alaskan
price level has proved to be sticky downward,and the recent
historical events,which should be putting downward pressure on
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May 1983
Alaskan relative prices,are taking a long time having their impact
felt.
Local government wages and salaries (PC13C).The intercept term
on the equation relating local government personnel expenditures to
wages and salaries is adjusted upward to force cons istency in the
most recent year between two data sources showing very different
movements.
State and local government wage rate equations.The equation
used to simulate state and local government wage rates are altered
so that the real wage in these sectors never falls below the level
of the previous year.The rationale for this adjustment is similar
to that used to adjust the federal wage rate.
Price ratio equation.This equation is adjusted to incorporate
the possibility of a one-time upward adjustment in some future year,
using the coefficient C67C,resulting from a reimposition of the
state personal income tax.This change would be essentially'
symmetrical,but opposite in sign,to the fall in the price level
which occurred in 1980 when the tax was eliminated.
General wage rate adjustment.All private sector wage rates are
adjusted upward over the interval 1980 through 1986 through the use
of the variable D.80DEC6.The wage rate equations are designed to
trend upward with the secular growth in the real average weekly wage
in the United States for which a close historical relationship can
be shown.In 1980,however,there was a dramatic one-year fall in
that indicator with no corresponding fall in real wages in Alaska in
spi te of a dramatic fall in the relative price level.The reasons
are (1)that there was no recession in Alaska,(2)that wage rates
in Alaska are relatively inflexible on the down side,and (3)that
Alaska wage rate movements in general will respond to dramatic
reductions in the price level with a lag.We assume equilibrium is
restored in 1987.
state government wages and salaries.The historical
relationship between state personnel expenditures and state
government wages and salaries no longer holds.An adjustment factor
(EXPRPER)is entered into the equation relating those variables.
Total population.A discrepancy in the HAP and Alaska
Department of Labor estimates for Alaska population in 1982 comes
from the manner in which they were computed and,consequently,the
information they are intended to convey.The Alaska Department of
Labor (ADOL)population estimates are based on sample surveys of
population and housing units as of July 1 of the year.The ISER
population model projects forward the U.S.Census April 1,1981,
benchmark population by adding the estimated excess of births over
deaths and the estimated net in-migration.
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The ISER figure is clearly an average annual population
estimate.Both the computation of births and deaths and the
statistical procedure used to estimate net migration are based on
measurements of year-to-year flows.There is no attempt to measure
seasonal fluctuations in the flows of births,deaths,or migration.
The ADOL figures,on the other hand,are based on a point estimate
of population as of July 1 of the year.In this sense,the
difference in the method of computation of the two estimates is
analogous to the difference between seasonally adjusted USER)and
not seasonally adjusted (ADOL)estimates.
There are several reasons why the Alaska population measured on
July 1 would be particularly large in 1982,relative to the average
figure for that year.In the first place,this was a year of
deteriorating economic condi tions in the rest of the Uni ted States
and rapid immigration to Alaska.Because of this,it is likely that
a much higher-than-usual number of people were attracted to the
state in search of temporary seasonal employment,wi th the
possibility of staying longer if permanent work was available.Some
of these seasonal increments to the labor force are undoubtedly
counted in the July 1 survey,and the number was probably much
higher than usual in 1982.
In 1982,as well,the state of Alaska offered $1,000 to every
resident through the Permanent Fund Dividend Program.In addition
to the incentive this program provided for seasonal workers to take
steps to establi sh legal res idency,the program encouraged longer-
term visitors for family or recreational pursuits to appear also to
be residents.There is no way accurately to determine the impact of
the Permanent Fund Dividend Program on reported July 1,1982,
population.
Both explanations for the discrepancy in the 1982 figures
suggest that it will diminish quickly as economic conditions in the
united States improve and as the Permanent Fund Dividend Program is
phased out.
Composi Hon of Employment--State Government and Services.The
rapid expansion of state operating expenditures since 1980 is
reflected in the model by an increase in state government
employment.A larger-than-average portion of the budget increases,
however,have gone into grants and contracts,which is reflected in
the employment statistics primarily in the service sector.The model
slightly overestimates state government employment but under-
estimates service employment by a like amount in the early 1980s.
No attempt is made to correct for this.
B-111
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Variable
B.ll.Key to Regressions
Symbol
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Kay 1983
Range
(may vary with
particular variable)
""'"
',I
i
il
state operating
budget component
State personnel
expenditure component
state revenues
Local revenues and
expenditures
Wage rates
Gross product
Employment
EXaaa 1962 to 1981
EXPRaaa 1962 to 1981
Raaa various
RLaa,ELaa various
WRaa 1961 to 1980
XXaa 1961 to 1980
EKaa 1961 to 1980
8-113
.....
APPENDIX C
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
POPULATION MODULE
C.l General Model Description C-l
C.2 Flow Diagram . .C-4
~
C.3 Output Variables C-5
C.4 Cohort Designation C-B
C.5 Parameter Definitions C-9-C.6 Coefficients C-lI..
C.?Input Variables for Population Module C-12
C.B Input Data Sets C-13
C.9 Structural Description C-14
C.1O Regression Coefficients C-17-C.lI Parameter Values C-1B
C.12 Model Validation C-27-I
--
-C.l General Model Description
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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The population module of the Alaska economic model provides
annual forecasts of total population and detailed population charac-
teristics for the State of Alaska.Population in each year is
estimated as an average annual value which is determined by the sum of
natural increase of the previous year's population and net immigration.
The former is based upon age-sex-race-specific fertility and mortality
rates.The latter is based upon a stochastically determined equation
relating net immigration to the change in employment opportunities in
Alaska,Alaskan unemployment,and real wage levels relative to the
U.S.average.This specification is based upon the theory that
migration flows clear regional labor markets,with people moving into
regions where employment opportunities are increasing faster than
local supplies can satisfy them and out of economically declining
regions.
The three main components of population--Native,military,and
civilian non-Native--each receive separate treatment because of dif-
ferent characteristics.The Native population can only migrate out of
Alaska and has different fertility and mortality rates than do
civilian non-Natives.The military population consists of armed
forces personnel and military dependents.Births,deaths,and net
migration are not calculated for this component of the population.
Its age-sex structure essentially remains constant in simulation,as
each year those leaving are replaced by individuals with identical
characteristics.
Total Population.Total population is the sum of the three
components of the population which are individually treated because of
different characteristics.These components are civilian/non-Native
population,Native population,and military population which is armed
forces personnel plus military dependents.Each of the components of
the population is divided into 30 age-sex cohorts.The population
under 1 year is the first cohort for each sex,and the 65-and-over
population is cohort 15.Cohort 2 is the population aged 1 through
4 years;all others span five years.
The military population is static in the sense that the age-sex
structure of both the armed forces personnel and the military depen-
dents does not change over time,nor does the ratio of military
dependents to armed forces personnel.The total military population
is calculated as a percentage of the 1980 military population and its
age-sex structure scaled accordingly.
Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase.Each year,a percentage of
individuals within each cohort die,and another percentage move into
the next cohort as people age.The aging process applies to all
individuals within a cohort,and the result of this process is an
"intermediate cohort"to which migrants must be added to arrive at the
final cohort value for the new year.
C-l
Institute of Social
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May 1983
The population of the a-I-aged cohort is determined by the number
of births,which is the sum of cohort-specific fertility rates applied
to the female population surviving from the previous year.While
mortality rates change very slowly,fertility rates are affected by a
number of socioeconomic variables.Since precise relationships cannot
be determined for Alaskan fertility rates,these are held constant in
the model for the projection period.A percentage of infants do not
survive,and a specific sex division of births is applied to total
births.
From these calculations,both infant deaths and total deaths can
be calculated as sums.Finally,natural increase is the excess of
births over deaths.
Civilian/Non-Native Migration.Net immigration is a function of
the year-to-year change in the level of total Alaskan civilian
employment,the percentage change in the lagged value of the Alaskan-
U.S.ratio of real weekly earnings,and the lagged ratio of U.S.-to-
Alaska unemployment rates.Migrants,according to this formulation,
will be drawn to Alaska in response to a tightening of the Alaskan
labor market indicated by low unemployment rates and rising real
wages.Higher relative unemployment rates and declining real wages
would cause net immigration to be negative.
Net immigration is distributed among the age-sex cohorts by a
two-step process.First,a percentage of each cohort of the popula-
tion leaves the state independent of the overall amount of net
migration.The remainder of net migration is allocated among all the
cohorts on the basis of a percentage of total net migration.(This
remainder can be a negative number.)Net migration to Alaska is
biased toward young males relative to the U.S.average.
Total civilian/non-Native population is finally calculated by
summing the population in each cohort including the results of the
migration process during the year.
Net Native Population.As with the civilian/non-Native popula-
tion,a percentage of individuals die each year within each cohort,
and a percentage age into the next cohort.Native births are the sum
of cohorts of the female population of child-bearing age times the
fertility rate for Natives within each cohort.Total Native births
are allocated between the sexes and reduced by the percentage of
Native infant deaths by sex.Native infant deaths are the difference
between total births and infant deaths,and total Native deaths
include those of all cohorts.Native natural increase is the excess
of births over deaths.The Native population migrates out of Alaska
at a rate independent of the level of economic activity.
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Two distinct definitions of the total Native population are
calculated.The first is based upon Native self-enumeration data from
the 1980 Census.This forms the basis for the age-sex distribution of
the Native population.A second larger number is calculated from the
number of enrollees for the twelve Native corporations residing in the
state.This latter concept of Native population is assumed to grow at
the same rate as the census-based Native population.
C-3
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May 1983
~I
C.2 MAP ECOtlOmic Population Module
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....
..,
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I__J
Labor
Force
Total
Employment
Economic
Model
Real Wage
Relative to U.S.
Alaska
Population
------1
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Age-Sex
Distributionr·---
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C-4
)1"""
C.3 Output Variables of the Population Module
Total Population
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May 1983
r
POP Total Alaska population
CNNTOT Total Alaska civilian non-Native population
NATTOT Total Alaska Native population (civilian)
POPij Total Alaska population in cohort ij
CNNPij Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
NATPij Alaska Native population in cohort ij
POPC Alaska Population not in military service
BTOT Total Alaska civilian births
DTOT Total Alaska civilian deaths
POPNI9 Total Alaska civilian natural increase
Military Population
"""I
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r,
I"""
I
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PO PM
MILPCT
Cij
BTHTOT
DTHINF
DTHTOT
NATINC
NCij
NBTHTOT
NDTHINF
NDTHTOT
NNATINC
POPNE
POPMIG
MIGOUT
MIGIN
Alaska active duty military personnel
Alaska military population as a fraction of 1980 level
Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase
Alaska Civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
before migration
Total Alaska civilian non-Native births to civilian population
Alaska infant civilian non-Native deaths
Total Alaska civilian non-Native deaths
Alaska civilian non-Native natural increase
(Civilian)Native Natural Increase
Alaska Native population in cohort ij before migration
Total Alaska Native births
Alaska Native infant deaths
Total Alaska Native deaths
Alaska Native natural increase
Alaska Native enrollment population
Civilian Migration and Total Civilian Population
Total net civilian migration to Alaska
Exogenous civilian migration to Alaska
Endogenous civilian migration to Alaska
C-5
PLFDOHC
PLFDOMN
PLFDOilll
PLFD9
LF
UNEHP
WR.AK.US
U.AK.US
HH
HHC
HlIN
llliM
CHHij
Nllliij
HHij
POPCGQ
POPNGQ
POPGQ
HHSIZEN
HHSIZEC
HHSIZE
POPSKL
POPKID
POPGER
POPADS
POP.AD
POP .KID
POP.GER
POP .MIL
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May 1983
Labor Force and Unemployment
Alaska potential civilian non-Native labor force
(population age 15 to 64)
Alaska potential civilian Native labor force
Alaska potential military labor force (military dependents
age 15 to 64,active-duty military are excluded)
Total Alaska potential civilian labor force
Total Alaska civilian labor force
Alaska unemployed
Relative real wage rate,Alaska to U.S.
Relative unemployment rate,Alaska to U.S.
Households
Total Alaska households
Total Alaska civilian non-Native households
Total Alaska civilian Native households
Total Alaska military households
Alaska households headed by civilian non-Native
persons in cohort ij
Alaska households headed by civilian Native persons
in cohort ij
Total Alaska households headed by persons in cohort ij
Non-Household Population and Average Household Size
Alaska civilian non-Native population in group quarters
Alaska Native population in group quarters
Total Alaska population in group quarters
Average Alaska Native household size
Average Alaska civilian non-Native household size
Average Alaska household size,all households
Special Population Characteristics
Total Alaska population age 5-19
Total Alaska population under 15
Total Alaska population 65 and over
Total Alaska population age 15-64
Ratio of Alaska population 15-64 to total population
Ratio of Alaska population under 15 to total population
Ratio of Alaska population 65 and over to total population
Ratio of Alaska military and military dependents to
total population
C-6
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POP.NAT
POP.CIV
NCBR
NCDR
CBR
CDR
BCRUDE
DCRUDE
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May 1983
Ratio of Alaska Native population to total population
Ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population to
total population
Alaska crude Native birth rate (per thousand)
Alaska crude Native death rate
Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate
Alaska crude civilian non-Native death rate
Alaska crude civilian birth rate
Alaska crude civilian death rate
C-7
C.4 Cohort Designation
Sex (i)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
-I
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F
M
Female
Male
Age (j)
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1 Under 1 year
2 1 - 4
years
3 5 - 9 years
4 10 -14 years
5 15 -19 years
6 20 -24 years
7 25 -29 years ~
8 30 -34 years
9 35 -39 years
10 40 -44 years
11 45 -49 years
12 50 -54 years
13 55 -59 years
14 60 -64 years
15 65 years and older
C-8
Institute of Social
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~ffiP Documentation
May 1983
C.S Parameter Definitions
Military Population
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AFTOT
MDTOT
MILij
Gj
Sij
FERTj
SEXDIV
SURINFi
BADD
NSij
NFERTij
NSEXDIV
NSURINFi
NMij
OEMij
Mij
HHRij
NHHRij
RCij
NRCij
CPGQij
Total armed forces personnel in 1980
Total military dependents in 1980
Armed forces personnel and military dependents
in cohort ij in 1980
Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase
Shift factor for aging of cohorts
Non-Native survival rate for cohort 1J
Non-Native fertility rate for female cohort J
Non-Native sex division at birth
Non-Native infant survival rates
Birth adjustment factor to account for birth of
Native children to non-Native women
(Civilian)Native Natural Increase
Native survival rate for cohort ij
Native fertility in female cohort j
Native sex division at birth
Native infant survival rates
Civilian Migration
Migration rate (positive for in,negative for out)
for Native population in cohort ij
Exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate (positive
for in,negative for out)for population in cohort ij
Fraction of total endogenous civilian (non-Native)
migration assigned to cohort ij
Household Formation
Household formation rate for civilian non-Native
population in cohort ij
Household formation rate for civilian Native
population in cohort ij
Rate of change in HHRij
Rate of change in NHHRij
Fraction of civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters
C-9
NPGQij
POP~IGQ
MHHAGE
LFPART
PLFRATE
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Fraction of civilian Native population in cohort ij
in group quarters
Military population in group quarters in 1980
Average age of head of military household
Labor Force
Labor force participation rate as a fraction of
potential labor force
Fraction of migrant population in potential labor force
C-10
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C.6
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Coefficients
Regression coefficients for net migration equation:
.-.
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CMIGa Net migration to Alaska
C-ll
a =1,2,3,4
Institute of Social
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May 1983
C.7 Input Variables for Population Module
The following variables require a forecast for each year:
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EMGM Alaska military employment (thousands)
EM96 Total Alaska employment (thousands)
R.WR97 Average Alaska real wage rate
WEUS U.S.weekly earnings
PDUSCPI U.S.consumer price index
U.US U.S.unemployment rate
YR Year
All other population variables may be updated as new population
estimates become available.
C-12
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C.8 Input Data Sets
Input data required to run the population module are
contained in the following data sets:
AKHIST
POPST2
Historical time series data
Estimated 1980 Alaska population
by age,sex,and race.*
..."
*Alaska population by age,sex,and race cohorts estimated from
the 1980 U.S.Census are shown in Table C-6.These figures represent
Alaska population as of April 1,1980,the date of the census.
Population estimates for the MAP population module,however,represent
average annual values.The census-derived figures for population
cohorts were adjusted to average annual figures using the following
procedure:
(l)The population module was simulated for one full year
starting from the April 1,1980,population,but with
average annual 1980 employment and wage data.
(2)The average annual 1980 population estimates,contained
in the Data Set POPST2,were computed using the formula:
POPST2_POPijk =0.25 *.[POPijk (1981)-POPijk (1980)]
where POPST2 POPijk is the average 1980 population of
sex i in age-cohort j and race k;POPijk(l981)is the
simulated 1981 population cohort,and POPijk(l980)is
the census April 1,1980,cohort .
C-13
Institute of Social
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May 1983
C.9 Structural Description
Refer to the variable list and symbol dictionary for names and
symbols.
Total Population
POP =CNNTOT +NATTOT +MILPCT *(AFTOT +MDTOT)
POPij ==CNNPij +NATPij +MILPCT *(AFPij +MDPij)
i =M,F
j =1 to 15
POPM ==EMGM
Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase
Cij ==Gj *Sij *CNNPij (-1)+(I-Gj-l)*Si,j-l *CNNPi,j-l (-1)
i =M,F
j =2 to 15
11
BTHTOT ==(L (CFj *FERTj))-BADD
j=4.
CMl SEXDIV .,,,BTHTOT 'k SURINFM
CFI --(I-SEXDIV)*BTHTOT *SURINFF
DTHINF --BTHTOT -CMI -CFl
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15
DTHTOT --DTHINF +L L
i=M,F j=1
NATINC --BTHTOT -DTHTOT
(Cij(-I)*(I-Sij))
-~
C-14
,..,.
Institute of Social
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May 1983
(Civilian)Native Natural Increase
NCij ==Gj *NSij *NATPi,j-l +(l-Gj-l)*NSi,j-l *NATPi,j-l (-1)
i =M,F
j =1 to 15
11
NBTHTOT ==(L (NCFj *NFERTj))+BAnD
j=4
NCPMl ==NSEXDIV *NBTHTOT *NSURINFM
NCPFI ==(l-NSEXDIV)*NBTHTOT *NSURINFF
NDTHINF ==NBTHTOT -NCMl -NCFl
NDTHTOT ==NDTHINF +L
i=M,F
15
L (NCij(-l)*(l-NSij))
j=l
NNATINC ==NBTHTOT -NDTHTOT
Civilian Migration and Total Civilian Population
NATPij =NCij *(1 +NMij)i=M,F j=l to 15
POPMIG =CMIGI +CMIG2 *l/U.AK.US(-l)+CMIG3 *WR.AK.US(-l)
+CMI G4 ~';DELEMP
MIGOUT =L
i=-M,F
15
L ((OEMij *Cij)+(NMij *NCij))
j=l
MIGIN =POPMIG -MIGOUT
NATTOT =L
i=M,F
15
L NATPij
j=l
CNNPij =MIGIN *Mij +Cij *(1 +OEMij)(Mij ~0)i=M,F j=l to 15
C-15
CNNTOT =2:
i=M,F
15
2:CNNPij
j=1
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May 1983
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Labor Force and Unemployment
PLFD9 --2:
i=M,F
14
2:POPij
j=5
-.
LF ==LFPART *PLFD9
UNEMP ==LF -EM96
U.AK.US ==UNEMPjLFjU.US
WR.AK.US ==LOG(R.WR97)-LOG(WEUS *100jPDUSCPI)-
(LOG(R.WR97(-I))-LOG(WEUS(-I)*100jPDUSCPI(-I)))
DELEMP ==EM96 -EM96(-I)
C-16
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May 1983
C.10 Regression Coefficients
Net Migration to Alaska
POPMIG =CMIG1 +CMIG2 *l/U.AK.US(-l)+CMIG3 *WR.AK.US(-l)
+CMI G4 ;';DELEMP
Coefficient Value Standard Error t Statistic
CMIG1 -16.0216 5.5354 -2.8944
CMIG2 14.1206 5.4030 2.6135
CMIG3 49.2216 13.7389 3.5827
CMIG4 0.9567 0.0969 9.8699
Range:1971 to 1980 F(3,6)=53.57
Estimation method:generalized least squares (correction
for autocorrelation),p =0.75-
R2 =0.964 standard error of regression =2.816
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Notes:Historical series for POPMIG taken from the series
AKHIST POPMIGNW.Historical series for U.AK.US
taken from ANANHIST U.AK.USU.Other series archived
in ANANHIST.
C-17
Institute of Social
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May 1983
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C.11 Parameter Values
Household Formation
Civilian Natural Increase
Military Population (Table C-6)
Military age-sex-race distribution
outside Anchorage assumed equal to
Anchorage on-base distribution.
Anchorage figures from 1980 U.S.
Census,Anchorage Census Tracts 3
and 4.
From Alaska Air Command and J.Kruse,
Design and Implementation of Alaska
1980 Reapportionment Data Collection
Effort,ISER,August 1980.
l/Tj where Tj is the number of
years spanned by age cohort j;
except GIS (65 and over)=0
See Tables C-4 (birth rates)and C-5
(survival rates).
C-18
See Appendix D
Estimated using data from Alaska Air
Command and 1980 U.S.Census
See Table C-3.
Estimated from columns 1 and 2,Table C-1,
and columns 1 and 2,Table C-2.
Parameters assumed =O.Insufficient
information available on migration of
Native population
OEMij
Mij
Military
Households
Civilian
Households
NMij
AFTOT
Civilian Migration
All Others
Gj
MDTOT,MILij
-
Labor Force
LFPART
PLFRATE
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Ratio of sum of total civilian employment
and unemployment to civilian potential
labor force
Fraction of population 15-64 from
Table C-6
C-19
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May 1983
TABLE C-1:CIVILIAN MIGRATION TO ANCHORAGE,
ALASKA PUBLI C SURVEY SAMPLE
(N =1,867 Individuals)
NOTE:Figures include all members of the household of survey respondents
resident in community (in Alaska for interstate migrants)thirty-
six months or less.
C-20
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May 1983
TABLE C-2.ESTIMATED CIVILIAN MIGRATION RATES TO ANCHORAGE
(percent of migrants in each category)
All Non-Native
Interstate Migrants Alaska Natives Migrants-,
Age Group F M F M F M
-Under 5 5.0 5.0 8.3 8.3 5.0 5.0
5-9 5.4 5.4 10.4 10.4 4.9 4.9
10-14 2.2 2.2 4.2 4.2 2.6 2.6
15-19 2.6 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.6
I"""
20-24 9.6 7.9 4.2 4.2 8.3 7.0
25-29 7.6 9.9 6.3 6.3 7.8 9.4
30-34 6.4 7.9 6.3 6.3 7.0 8.4
35-39 2.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 2.9 3.8-
40-44 2.6 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.9
45-49 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 2.1
50-54 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8
55-59 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0
60-64 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
65 and over 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Total 47.1 52.9 50.0 50.0 47.9 52.1
SOURCE:Data from Alaska Public Survey.
C-21
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May 1983
TABLE C-3.ESTIMATED EXOGENOUS OUT-MIGRATION RATES
SOURCE:Richard Ender,Anchorage Urban Observatory and U.S.Census,1980.
C-22
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TABLE C-4.1980 BIRTHS:NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND BIRTH RATES
PER THOUSAND WOMEN IN FIVE-YEAR AGE COHORTS,
ALASKA RESIDENTS
Native Non-Native
"""Age of Mother No.of Births Rate No.of Births Rate
,.."..10-14 years 1 0.3 5 0.4
15-19 years 438 138.5 686 48.4
~20-24 821 297.9 a 2,632 145.1 ayears
25-29 years 528 173.3 2,548 127.2a-30-34 years 260 101.1 1,212 71.7
35-39 years 84 46.5 283 22.7
40-44 years 18 12.7 38 4.3
Not Stated 1 2
Total 2,151 7,406
(9,557 total births in Alaska in 1980)
aRate includes one case where age was not stated.
-
SOURCE:Number of births from Alaska Department of Health and Social
Services,Office of Information Systems;and Alaska Native
Medical Center,Anchorage.
C-23
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May 1983
TABLE C-5.1980 DEATHS:NUMBER OF DEATHS AND DEATH RATES ~
PER THOUSAND,ALASKA RESIDENTS
NATIVE NON-NATIVE ~
Female Male Female Male """'.
Age Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate
<28 Days 8 7.63 14 12.69 16 4.48 24 6.26
28 days -10 12.36 13 15.53 11 3.15 21 5.811year -I
1-4 yrs.3 1.09 4 1.36 8 0.67 11 0.87
5-9 2 0.55 3 0.78 1 0.07 2 0.14 .....,
10-14 1 0.28 5 1.32 1 0.08 6 0.43
15-19 10 3.16 24 6.70 6 0.42 22 1.36 -,
20-24 8 2.90 32 10.00 9 0.50 50 2.38
~
25":29 11 3.61 29 8.66 13 0.65 56 2.52
30-34 10 3.89 13 4.34 13 0.77 50 2.54
35-39 8 4.42 22 10.10 13 1.04 28 1.88
40-44 9 6.34 17 9.82 15 1.71 43 4.00
45-49 3 2.67 8 5.87 20 2.74 43 4.99
50-54 12 12.90 12 10.80 22 3.54 59 7.76
55-59 10 13.00 19 21.20 40 7.89 76 12.92
60-64 8 16.00 19 33.50 34 10.30 77 20.62 -65 +45 31.10 91 63.20 148 34.10 268 62.05
-Totals 158 325 370 836 !
-
SOURCE:Number of deaths from Alaska Department of Health and
Social Services,Office of Information Systems.
C-24
·~-~-1 1 .-1 - 1 '1 -1 --I )J --1 1
TABLE C-6.ALASKA POPULATION,APRIL 1,1980
Native Population Civilian Non-Native Military Population Total Population
Age Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male
~--
0-1 1,646 806 840 5,648 2,763 2,885 1,459 732 727 8,753 4,301 4,452
1 - 4 5,674 2,734 2,940 19,061 9,020 10,041 5,461 2,854 2,607 30,196 14,608 15,588
5 -9 6,867 3,390 3,477 22,502 10,983 11,519 5,674 2,727 2,947 35,043 17,100 17,943
10 -14 7,433 3,638 3,795 23,264 11,206 12,058 3,585 1,718 1,867 34,282 16,562 17,720
15 -19 8,346 4,091 4,255 25,048 11,965 13,083 3,760 1,279 2,481 37,154 17,335 19,817
20 -24 6,899 3,445 3,454 27,681 14,168 13,513 10,510 3,291 7,219 45,090 20,904 24,186
25 -29 5,639 2,798 2,841 35,490 17,029 18,461 7,516 3,254 4,262 48,645 23,081 25,564
30 -34 4,373 2,179 2,194 32,480 14,929 17,551 5,310 2,379 2,931 42,163 19,487 22,676
n 35 -39 3,539 1,753 1,786 24,961 11 ,506 13,455 2,847 1,001 1,846 31,347 14,260 17,087I
N
Ln
40 -44 2,802 1,376 1,426 18,280 8,008 10,272 1,593 816 777 22,675 10,200 12,475
45 -49 2,657 1,301 1,356 15,440 6,992 8,448 298 120 178 18,395 8,413 9,982
50 -54 2,176 1,074 1,102 13,422 5,938 7,484 250 125 125 15,848 7,137 8,711
55 -59 1,802 857 945 10,734 4,940 5,794 81 43 38 12,617 5,840 6,777
60 -64 1,307 679 628 6,751 3,095 3,656 38 19 19 8,096 3,793 4,303
65 +2,875 1 ,411 1 ,464 8,600 4,263 4,337,72 57 15 11,547 5,731 5,816
64,035 31,532 32,503 289,362 136,805 152,557 48,454 20,415 28,039 401,851 188,752 213,099
--
SOURCE:1980 U.S.Census ~~lllt-l
'"::l::l'<I-t:l c.tilrt
.....dMf-J·\Oonrt
oonOC
W§::lrto(1)
(1)S::l f-J.0
rtnH,
III
rt:;;dCflf-J.(1)0
o til n::l (1)f-J.
III '"~.....n::r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
C.12 Model Validation
The population module of the economic model uses as the basis of
its forecasts the demographic characteristics of the population
enumerated by the 1980 U.S.Census.No detailed enumeration of the
state population has been undertaken since the 1980 Census.The most
recent past detailed population count that could be used to test the
ability of the full module to predict demographic shifts up to 1980 is
the 1970 U.S.Census.Conceptually,one could use the population
module to llpre dict"the 1980 population given the 1970 population
characteristics and estimated migration between 1970 and 1980.
Such a test is impractical,however,since Alaskan cohort-
specific birth,death,and household formation rates changed signifi-
cantly between the 1970 and 1980 Census benchmarks.Consequently,one
would not expect a module to forecast population changes accurately
during this period using the 1980 parameters.
Although it is not practical to test predictions of the full
population module against historical events,it is possible to examine
closely one important component of the module--net migration.The
equation forecasting net civilian migration was estimated using recent
historical data.To the extent that future economic conditions
resemble those that have occurred in the past decade,the ability of
the module equation to estimate historical migration flows provides a
reliable indicator of the type and magnitude of likely future fore-
casting errors.Table C-7 displays a comparison of actual estimated
net civilian migration to the migration equation predictions in the
years for which it is possible to compute a forecast from available
data.
C-26
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-
-
-
.....
1
1
r,I
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-7.COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PREDICTED
NET MIGRATION TO ALASKA
Implied Net
Civilian Regression
Year Migration!Prediction2 Difference
1980 -7,900 -4,566 -3,334
1979 -10,490 -12,694 2,204
1978 -14,270 -12,963 -1,307
1977 -4,460 -3,008 -1,452
1976 22,530 23,324 794
1975 33,760 33,140 620
1974 10,380 14,443 -4,063
1973 4,290 3,660 630
1972 6,050 3,539 2,511
1971 4,000 2,116 1,884
lNet migration in year t is defined as the difference between the
(mid-year)population estimate for year t and for year t-1,less the
excess of births over deaths (computed as a two-year moving average),
adjusted to exclude estimated military population changes.
2Using the equation presented in Section C-10,including the
estimate of serial correlation in the error term.
C-27
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Institute of Social
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May 1983
APPENDIX D
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
HOUSEHOLD FORMATION MODULE
D.1 Model Description
D.2 Parameter Assumptions
D.3 Proj ecting Alaskan Households in the Future
D-l
D-4
D-8
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May 1983
D.l Model Description
A household is a living unit of one of two types:a family or an
individual or group of individuals,not related,who are living as a
unit.
The population projections determine the number of households in
the state.The number of households is a function of both the level
of population and its age-sex distribution.The age-sex distribution
of the population is important because the rate at which people form
households differs across age-sex cohorts.This household formation
module accounts for both of these influences of population on house
hold formation.
The household formation module is an accounting model which
depends on a set of assumptions about the age-sex cohort-specific
rates of household formation,known as headship rates,and changes in
those rates.The module is based on the assumption that the social,
economic,and life-cycle factors which determine the formation of
households can be described by a set of headship rates.Headship
rates describe the probability that a person in a particular cohort is
a household head.
The module requires input from the population module in the form
of the projected size and age-sex distribution of the population.The
total number of households in the state (HH)is equal to the number of
households summed across age and sex cohorts.
ij
(1)HH =n:HH ..1J
The total number of households in sex cohort i and age cohort j
(HH ..)describes the number of households with household head or
priffiaryindividual in the ith sex and jth age cohort.This total is,
in turn,composed of three components:the number of civilian/
non-Native households in cohort ij (CHH ..),the number of Native
households in cohort ij (NHH ..),and the n~ber of military households
in cohort ij (MHH ..).1J
1J
.-(2)HH..=CHH..+NHH..+MHH ..1J 1J 1J 1J
.....
I~
The number of civilian and Native households in each cohort is a
function of the population and headship rate for the cohort.The
number of households in any cohort equals the cohort-specific headship
rate (HHR ..for civilian/non-Natives and NHHR ..for Natives)multi
plied by lie cohort population (CNNP..for ci~ilian/non-Natives and
NATP ..for Natives)net of the proporllon of the population in group
quarUrs (CPGQ..for civilian/non-Natives and NPGQ..for Natives).1J 1J
D-l
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
CRR..=CNNP....,,>(1 CPGQ ..)'1,llliR ..
1J 1J 1J 1J
-
--
(4)NHH ..=NATP ..,,>(1 -NPGQ ..),',NHHR ..
1J 1J 1J 1J
The cohort distribution of military households (~lHH ..)is assumed
to remain constant throughout the proj ection period.J.Phe number of
military households (~lliH ..)equals the number in 1980.1J
The headship rates have changed historically and are expected to
continue to vary.The headship rates are assumed to approach a
specified target over a specified time period.Thus,the headship
rate in any year equals:
-
(5 )
(6)
HHR HHR (80)RC *10g(T-80)..= ..+..log TP1J 1J 1J
NHHR ~rrrum (80)+NRC *log (T-80)ij =~Dllfiij ij log NTP
where RC..(NRC ..)is the specified target change for non-Natives
(Natives i J and TpJ (NTP)is.the time period in which the change is
assumed to take place.
The model also calculates Native,civilian/non-Native,and total
population in group quarters,as well as average household size for
Natives,civilian/non-Natives,military,and total population.
(7)
(8)
(9 )
NPGQ ==LL (NPGQ....,',NATP ..). .1J 1J1J
CPGQ = =LL (CNNP ....,',CPGQ ..)1J 1J
POPGQ ==NPGQ +CPGQ +MILPCT *MPGQ
-
(10)lillSIZEN (NATTOT NPGQ)/:U N1lli ..
ij 1J -
(11)
(12)
RRSIZEC ==(CNNTOT -CPGQ)/LL CHH ..
ij 1J
HHSIZEM ==(MILPCT *[AFTOT +MOTOT -MPGQ))/LL ~lHH ... .1J1J
(13)RRSIZE ==(POP -POPGQ)/lill
D-2
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
D.2 Model Parameter Assumptions
The model was calibrated using the 1980 Census as a benchmark.
The civilian/non-Native and Native headship rates were calculated from
the statewide census data.These parameter values are shown in
Table D-l.
The civilian/non-Native and Native population proportions in
group quarters,also derived from the census,are assumed to remain a
constant proportion of each cohort over the projection period.These
are shown in Table D-2.
Military households are taken directly from the 1980 Census and
are shown in Table D-3.The age-sex distribution of military house
holds is assumed to remain constant over time and to increase or
decrease proportionately as total military population changes.The
proportion in group quarters also remains the same constant proportion
of total military as it was in 1980.
The parameters determining the rates of change of headship rates
are discussed in the next section.
D-3
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE D-1.1980 ALASKA CIVILIAN HEADSHIP RATES
Civilian/Non-Native Native ~
Age Male Female Male Female
15-19 .063 .036 .025 .026 -
20-24 .553 .201 .257 .127
25-29 .742 .234 .539 .188 -
30-34 .836 .237 .691 -.219
35-39 .905 .215 .807 .227
40-44 .914 .216 .807 .227
-:
45-49 .943 .224 .864 .267
50-54 .931 .223 .864 .267 """
55-59 .923 .262 .893 .297
"""i
60-64 .922 .320 .925 .330
65+.884 .466 .888 .503 -
-
NOTES:Assumes 1970 distribution for age 15-54 in group quarters
after military in group quarters of 8,078 males and
1,365 females was subtracted from total age 15-54 in
group quarters.Other group quarters by cohort is
from U.S.Census.
Assumes no Natives in military.
SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Census,1980,
Census of Population,Census Tape STF2,Table 11.
D-4
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May 1983
TABLE D-2.ALASKA CIVILIAN POPULATION IN GROUP QUARTERS,1980
Non-Native Native
Male Female Male Female
Age Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
I"'!"
,,<1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1-4 71 .0071 41 '.0045 12 .0041 7 .0026-5-9 53 .0046 35 .0032 20 .0058 20 .0059
10-14 53 .0044 35 .0031 20 .0053 20 .0055
15-19 569 .0435 48 .0040 160 .0376 98 .0240
20-24 986 .0729 401 .0283 239 .0692 98 .0284
25-29 439 .0238 69 .0040 115 .0405 33 .0118
30-34 291 .0166 33 .0022 69 .0314 20 .0092
35-39 314 ---"0278 13 .0011 40 .0224 10 .0057
40-44 379 .0369 29 .0036 41 .0288 4 .0029
~45-49 331 .0392 64 .0092 35 .0258 12 .0092
50-54 198 .0265 30 .0051 20 .0181 12 .0112
55-59 154 .0266 46 .0093 22 .0233 11 .0128
60-64 98 .0268 10 .0032 22 .0350 7 .0103
65+281 .0648 320 .0751 61 .0417 72 .0510--4,277 1,174 876 424
.....
SOURCE:U.S.Census Tape STF2B
r,D-5
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
~
TABLE D-3.ALASKA MILITARY HOUSEHOLDS
(percent of total)
Age Male Female
15-19 .6 .1 -
20-24 18.3 .6
25-29 29.1 .9 ~
30-34 23.7 .3 -35-39 15.8 .2
40-44 6.7 .1 ..,.
45--49 1.7 .1
50-54 1.0 .1
55-59 .3 -60-54 .1
65+. 1 .1
SOURCE:1980 Census,Census Tapes.
,~
-
D-6
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
D.3 Projecting Alaskan Households in the Future
National Trends
The relationship between population and the number of households
has not remained constant over time.Table D-4 shows historical
trends in the size and composition of households in the United States
since 1940.Average household size has declined steadily since World
War II,primarily as a result of the increase in the proportion of
"primary individual"households.The average size of families
actually increased after the war until the mid-1960s because of the
"baby boom,II but this was more than compensated for by the fact that
the average household size of "primary individual"households has
fallen dramatically from 1.94 to 1.19 in 1980.
Somewhat more detail on recent historical trends is provided by
Table D-5 which focuses on the composition of households in the last
ten years.Total households increased by 27 percent over that period
in contrast to an increase in population of 7.6 percent.Family
households increased by 15.7 percent while nonfamily households grew
78 percent.
Part of the decline in average household size for families can be
attributed to the relative growth of one-parent households and
families with no children less than 18 years of age.All categories
of nonfamily households grew rapidly,but those with more than one
member grew most rapidly at 157 percent.This category includes both
couples living together and groups of unrelated individuals sharing
households.
The dominant factors which underlie these trends are the in
creased life expectancy of people,which has increased the proportion
of older-couple family households,and more importantly the aging of
the post-war baby boom population which is now entering the primary
headship years both in and out of families.
These trends have been projected forward nationally by the
Department of Commerce (Table D-6)to predict the number of households
in the future under different sets of assumptions of population (I,
II,III)and headship rates (A,B,C,D).
These proj ections all assume a continued reduction of average
household size during the next fifteen years.A control projection,
K,is presented which assumes no change in headship rates to isolate
the effect of population growth alone on the number of households.
D-7
TABLE D-4.HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLDS
IN THE UNITED STATES
(thousands)
Primary Families Primary Individuals
Households
Average
Household
Size Number
Average
Family Size
Percent of
Households Number
Average
Family Size
Percent of
Households
1940 3.67 3.76
1950 43,554 3.37 38,838 3.54 89.2 4,716 1.94
1955 47,874 3.33 41,732 3.59 87.2 6,142 1.61
1960 52,799 3.33 44,905 3.67 85.0 7,895 1.40
1965 57,436 3.29 47,838 3.70 83.3 9,598 1.28
t:j 1970 63,401 3.14 51,456 3.58 81.2 11,945 1.25
I
co 2.94197571,120 55,563 3.42 78.1 15,557 1.23
1979 77,330 2.78 57,498 3.34 74.4 19,831 1.19
1980 80,776 2.76 59,550 3.31 73.7 21,226 1.19
SOURCES:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Statistical Abstract,1979.
U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Population Estimates and Projections,Series P-25,No.805,May 1979.
U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Household and Family Characteristics:March 1979,Series P-20,No.352,July 1980.
U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Households,Families,Marital Status and Living Arrangements,Series P-20,No.376,
October 1982.
10.8
12.8
15.0
16.7
18.8
21.9
25.6
26.3
:J:::J::~H
~>i=l ::;;I
'<:"0 Q..CIl
rt
......t:j ~1-'-
<.OOnrtcona~w ~i=l rtSa(ll
(ll 3
i=l 1-'-0
rtn ......
~
rt:;dCf.l
1-'-(ll aaCIln
i=l (ll 1-"
~~
1"1 t-'n
~
J J )c ••1 .!.J J J J I J I )J t
~]-~-1 ~1 -~1 1 1 J ~1 _..1 1 ]-)1 J 1 1 j
TABLE D-5.U.S.HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
IN THE MOST RECENT DECADE
1980 1970
Percent Growth
Millions Percent Millions Percent 1970 to 1980
Total 80.776 63.401 27.4
Family Households 59.550 73.7 51.456 81.2 15.7
Married Couples 49.112 60.8 44.728 70.5 9.8
Other Family Households 10.438 12.9 6.728 10.6 55.1
t:1
I Nonfamily Households 21.226 26.3 11.945 18.8 77.7\0
Persons Living Alone 18.419 22.8 10.851 17.1 69.7
Other Nonfamily Households 2.807 3.5 1.094 1.7 156.6
SOURCES:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Household and Family Characteristics:March 1979,Series P-20,No.352,July 1980.
U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Households,Families,Marital Status,and Living Arrangements,Series P-20,No.376.
::::::::=::tlll-l
III :P-I:l I:l
'<l I-d ~IIIrt
>-'t:1 tLJ 1-'.\,Conrt
co n 0 J:;:wJ:;:l:lrt30(l)
(l)3
I:l 1-"0rtnr+,
tll
rt:;Ccn
1-'.(l)0otiln
I:l (l)1-"
tll III
t1 ~n::r
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 ,o0oi;
TABLE D-6.PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLDS AND ~
HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION IN 1995
ofa ~
Dept.
Commerce Average
Projection Household Family Nonfamily
Series Households Size Households Percent Households Percent ~
1979 (BASE)77 ,330 2.78 57,498 74.4 19,831 25.6 -
A I 107,528 2.46 72,709 67.6 34,819 32.4 -II 2.31
III 2.21
~
B I 103,856 2.55 72,234 69.4 31,622 30.6
II 2.39
III 2.28 ~I
C I 104,194 2.54 70,715 67.8 33,479 32.2
II 2.38
III 2.28
D I 97,180 2.72 71 ,590 73.5 25,590 26.5
II 2.55
III 2.44 ~
K 94,192 71 ,424 75.8 22,768
aFor definition of terms,see text.
SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current
Population Reports,Projection of the Number of Households
and Families,1979 to 1995,Series P-25,No.805,May 1979.
D-10
......
~I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
For high rates of population growth (primarily due to natural
increase),the average household size in 1995 would vary between 2.46
and 2.72.For low rates of population increase (fewer births and more
deaths),average household size is proj ected to decline to between
2.21 and 2.44.Conversion of these trends in household size into
annual rates of change yields a range of from -01.5 percent annually
for the high population growth case to -.1 percent for the low popula-
tion growth case.
Alaskan Trends
Turning to Alaska,the data is not so complete,but some trends
can be identified.Table D-7 shows the growth in the number of house-
holds since 1950 and their composition.Several similarities and
contrasts with the national trends are in evidence.Briefly,they are
as follows:
size for nonfamily households has not
household size was below the national
it has exceeded the national average by a
Contrasts
o The average household
declined.
o In 1950 the average
average,but since 1960
substantial amount.
Similari ties
Average household size has fallen since 1970.
Average family size has fallen.
The importance of female family heads has increased dramatically.
The proportion of family households has declined at about the
rate of the United States.
""'"0
0
0
~0
-
Average household size estimates from surveys conducted in
Anchorage and Fairbanks in the mid-1970s confirm the declining trend
in average household size.Estimates of 3.27 to 3.32 for Anchorage
for 1975 and 3.18 for 1977 have been published by the Anchorage Urban
Observatory.An estimate of 2.9 for 1976 for Fairbanks has been
published by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER).
-
Further comparison of Alaska with other states reveals that in
1980,the average household size in Alaska of 2.93 was fourth highest
in the nation,after Hawaii (3.15),Utah (3.20),and Mississippi
(2.97).Alaska experienced the greatest change between 1970 and 1980.
Household size fell 16.8 percent,compared to the U.S.average which
fell 11.6 percent.I
IU.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Statistical
Abstract of the United States 1981,December 1981.
D-ll
·..
TABLE D-7.ALASKA HISTORICAL HOUSEHOLD STATISTICS
All Households a Primary Family Households a Primary Individual Households a
Persons
Households in HH
Average
HH Size*
(2)1 (1)
Households Husbandl Male Female
No.(%)Wife Head Head
All
Persons
Average
HH Size*
(9)1 (5)
Households
No.%
Male Female
Head Head
All
Persons
Average
HH Size*
(15)/(12)
1950 b 31.047 100.779 3.25 NA 21.788 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1960 b 57.250 199.982 3.49 46.261 (80.8)42.750 NA NA 184.385 3.99 10.989 (19.2)NA NA 15.597
1960 c 57.250 200.418 3.50 46.613 (81.4)43.172 1.235 2.706 185.655 3.98 10.637 (18.6)7.804 2.833 14.763
1970d 79.054 278.039 3.52 66.034 (83.5)61.697 4.067 258.469 3.91 13.025 (16.5)8.674 4.351 19.570
1970c 79)739 278.145 3.49 66.670 (83.6)60.380 2.233 4.057 258.640 3.88 13.069 (16.4)8.654 4.415 19.505
l'1976 e 104.000 339.000 3.26 82.000 (78.8)70.000 2.000 8.000 298.000 3.71 22.000 (21.2)14.000 9.000 41.000I-'
N
1980f 132.369 385.608 2.91 96.840 (73.2)82.102 4.683 10.055 332.161 3.43 35.529 (26.8)22.606 12.923 53.447
*Person per household
a6y definition.Primary Famil ies and Primary Individuals sum to total households.
bU•S•Census of Population.1960.General Population Cha~acterist~PC(l)36.Table 19.pp.3-26.May 1961.
cU.S.Census of Population.Detailed Characteristics PC(l)03.Alaska.Table 153.pp.3-246.June 1972.
dU•S•Census of Population.General Characteristics PC(l)63.Table 22.pp.3-43.September 1971.
eCurrent Population Reports.Population Characteristics.Series P-20.No.334.Table 4.p.24.January 1979.
f U•S•Department of Commerce.Bureau of the Census.Supplementary Report.Advance Estimates of Social.Economic.
and Housing Characteristics.Table P-l.1980.
NA
1.42
1.39
1.5
1.49
1.5
:J:::J::illH
ill :P ::l ::l
'<:1-0 0..Ul
rT......t:J Pi /-'.
I.OO(")rT
OO(")O~
W~::lrTa0roro8
::l /-'.0
rTt"lH,
ill
rT~CJ)/-'.ro 0otil(")
::l ro /-'.
III ill
t"i !-'
(")
P"
1 I I I j .1 J J J )'I I ~)I ,I J J )
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Finally,it is possible to compare the age-sex-specific headship
rates in Alaska with those in the United States as a whole.Table D-8
compares the civilian headship rates in Alaska with those of the
United States as a whole by age,sex,and race.As expected,the
average headship rate for Alaskan Natives is considerably less than
that of the population as a whole.The average headship rate for
civilian/non-Native males was less than or equal to the national
average,while for females it was,in most cases,greater.
Projections
Although there are some apparent differences between the patterns
of household formation in the United States overall and for civilian/
non-Native Alaskans in the aggregate,the rates are similar.There
was,in 1980,a smaller proportion of nonfamily households in Alaska,
but average household size exceeded the national average.The prob-
ability of being a household head was greater for a civilian/non-
Native Alaska female than in the United States,but in contrast,
somewhat less for males.Alaska 1 s difference from future national
trends should be due ma~nly to its demographic composition;for
example,smaller-than-average population of retired people should
reduce the rate of household formation.Alaska's pattern of growth in
population because of in-migration (rather than births)should
increase the rate of household formation.(This does not necessarily
imply,however,a reduction in average household size.)
We project that household formation in Alaska will become more
like the U.S.average rates over the projection period.We expect
both U.S.and Alaska rates to change over the period;however,we do
not expect the rapid change experienced in the past to continue.We
assume that Alaska rates approach the U.S.year-2000 rates in a loga-
rithmic trend and reach this rate by 2010.
Table D-9 shows the projected pattern of U.S.change.The year-
2000 projections were found by extending the logarithmic trend found
between 1970 and 1980 to the year 2000.The log trend assumes that
headship rates are approaching some limit of change.The rates of
change for each Alaska cohort (RG ..)equal the difference between 1980
rates and these projected 2000 U.S~rates.
Trends in Native headship rates are more difficult to project
because of the rapid social and economic changes occurring in the
Native community.We assume that urbanization of the Native community
will continue and,with it,a trend in headship rates similar to that
in the nation as a whole.Thus,the same pattern of change in
headship rates is applied to the Native population;however,the
Natives are assumed to approach U.S.rates over a longer period.
D-13
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May 1983
TABLE D-8.COMPARISON OF 1970 ALASKA AND
U.S.HEADSHIP RATES
-
'"""
-
Male
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
Female
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
Alaska
Civilian/Non-Native
.063
.553
.742
.836
.905
.914
.943
.931
.923
.922
.884
.036
.201
.234
.237
.215
.216
.224
.223
.262
.320
.466
Native
.025
.257
.539
.691
.807
.807
.864
.864
.893
.925
.888
.026
.127
.188
.219
.227
.227
.267
.267
.297
.330
.503
United States
.415
.759
.886
.928
.928
.942
.942
.922
.922
.828
.162
.213
.205
.194
.194
.211
.211
.268
.268
.509
-
.....,
-
-
NOTES:Assumes 1970 distribution for age 15-54 in group quarters
after military in group quarters of 8,078 males and
1,365 females was subtracted from total age 15-54 in
group quarters.Other group quarters by cohort is
from U.S.Census.
Assumes no Natives in military
SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Census,1980,
Census of Population,Census Tape STF2.
D-14
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
l May 1983
TABLE D-9.U.S.HEADSHIP RATE PROJECTIONS
Age Males Females
~1970 1980 2000 1970 1980 2000
20-24 .520 .415 .365 .098 .162 .193
25-29 .828 .759 .726 .114 .213 .260
11 30-34 .904 .886 .877 .118 .205 .247
35-44 .931 .928 .927 .130 .194 .225
45-54 .946 .942 .940 .167 .211 .232
55-64 .950 .922 .909 .265 .268 .269
65+.908 .828 .938 .452 .509 .536
rI.
T
r
rI
SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,
U.S.Census 1970,1980.
D-15
1I
APPENDIX E
ISER MAP ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM:
REGIONALIZATION MODEL
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E.l.Model Description .····E-1rrE.2.Flow Diagram E-5I····
T E.3.Inputs ·········E-7
E.4.Variable and Parameter Names ····E-9
E.5.Parameter Values .....·······E-13
E.6.Model Validation .·······E-25
E.7.Programs for Model Use ·····.E-29
T
r
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E.l.Model Description
Introduction
This appendix presents in general outline form the structure of
the revised regionalization model which allocates population,
households,and employment to the census division level from a
simulation of the state economic model.Southeast census divisions
and Bristol Bay Borough census divisions are aggregated due to a
prior constraint imposed by limited computer capabilities.The
model essentially takes cross-sectional information on employment
and population and projects the panel forward through time.The
regional allocations are affected by variation over time in the
location of basic sector and government activity.The total support
employment and dependent population proportions vary over time to
maintain consistency with the results of the state model.
In developing this model,several major objectives have been
addressed as follows:
o that the structure be simple and generalizable
o that the parameters be specified in terms with clear,
intuitive meaning
o that the regions be disaggregated to census division
levels
o that the model be sufficiently flexible to be tied
easily to the MAP statewide model
As such,the main strength of the model is in providing
interregional consistency for any simulation analysis.On the other
hand,because it treats each region in quite aggregate form,it
cannot substitute for a detailed economic analysis for a particular
labor market area,and in general the chance of·projection error
increases as the size of the census division analyzed declines.
The model consists of two components.First,given an exogenous
estimate of statewide employment by sector (provided from a
corresponding state model run)and vectors of basic and government
employment in each of the twenty regions (1970 census division
aggregates and Alaska Department of Labor,Labor Market Areas),the
employment component of the model allocates support and total
employment to each of the twenty regions.The population component
then uses these estimates along with estimates of statewide
population and households (from the statewide model)to generate
regional population and household allocations.
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The Employment Component
For each of the twenty regions,the model projects three types
of employment:basic,government,and support.The basic sector
consists of (1)all sectors or portions of sectors treated as
exogenous 1n the state model:agriculture,fisheries,exogenous
manufacturing.mining.exogenous construction,and a portion of
transportation.as well as (2)some sectors which are endogenous in
the s tate model:endogenous construction.fores try.miscellaneous.
endogenous manufac turing.proprietors,and tourism employment.
Government consists of federal civilian and military employees as
well as state and local employees.State and local government are
endogenous in the state model,but exogenous in the regiona1ization
model.The support sector is defined as all other employment.
Total employment (M.aa)in each region aa is the sum of basic
(B.aa).government (G.aa),and support (S.aa)employment.
M.aa =B.aa +G.aa +S.aa
Support employment in any region aa is a function of total
employment in every region of the state as follows:
bb
S.aa =S M.bb *A.aa.bb *BETA
where A.aa.bb is the proportion of support sector employment
stimulated by an increase in total employment in region bb which is
observed in region aa..The preliminary estimate is adjusted by the
parameter BETA to yield a final figure which,when aggregated.is
consistent with the state model simulation.According to this model
formulation,an increase in basic or government employment in a
single region can.in theory.give rise directly and indirectly to
support employment in every other region of the state.
The support employment is calculated for each region aa based
upon demand in region bb as follows:
S.aa.bb =A.aa.bb *M.bb *BETA
The Population Component
Population (P.aa)in each region is a function of residence-
adjusted employment.Specifically.
bb
PRE.aa =PM.aa *S M.bb *IM.aa.bb
where PRE .aa is a preliminary population estimate for region aa,
IM.aa.bb is the proportion of workers employed in region bb (M.bb)
E-2
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....
Institute of Social
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May 1983
who live in region aa.and PM.aa is the ratio of population to
residence-adjusted employment in region aa.This preliminary
estimate is forced to conform in the aggregate to total state
population by multiplying through by an adjustment factor (ADJ).
This yields final population (P.aa).
P.aa =PRE.aa *ADJ
Since the 1970 census division boundaries were changed in 1980
and were renamed census areas.the population by 1980 census areas
(PCEN .cd is calculated from the estimates of population by 1970
census divisions (P.aa)as follows:.
aa
PCEN.cc =S P.aa *PC.cc.aa
where PC.cc.aa is the proportion of population in region aa 0970
census division)allocated to region cc (1980 census area).
From these regional population figures.a preliminary value for
the number of households (HPRE.cc)can be calculated as follows:
HPRE.cc =(PCEN.cc -PGQ.cc)!HHSZ.cc
where PGQ.cc is population in group quarters and HHSZ.cc is average
household size in region cc.The preliminary figure is adjusted
using the ratio ADJHH for consistency with the state simulation
result (HHCEN.cc).A final product of the model is a set of
household figures based upon the 1970 census divisions using the
same allocation factors as employed in allocating population (HH.aa).
E-3
E-4
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May 1983
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-
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May 1983
E.2 Flow Diagram
Flow uiagram
E.2 MAP Aegionalizatlon Model
Scenario Generator
and
State Model
Basic and Govt.
Employment
Total Employment
by Place of Work
Support
Employment
Total
Employment
in
Other
Regions
",...
I
I
I'""'
I'[I
r
r
'Consistency Jdjustment JDplied to conforn'
with state model simulation result.
E-S
E-6
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May 1983
-
....
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~and Economic Research
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May 1983
E.3.Model Inputs
Provided by the Scenario Generator
Baa Portion of basic employment ~n region aa (mining
[EMP9],exogenous construction [EMCNxl,exogenous
manufacturing [EMMX1,exogenous transportation [EMT9Xl,
agriculture [EMAGRI],fishing [EMFISH1)
Gaa Portion of government employment in region aa (federal
civilian and military [EMGC and EMGM])
Provided by MAP State Economic Model
-HH Households
POP Population
Provided by the Program for Running the Model*
B.aa
BETA
G.aa
Total basic employment in region aa (EMP9,EMM9,
EMCN,EMA9,EMT9X,EMPRO,EMTOUR)
Support employment/total employment «EM99-EMA9-
EMM9-EMCN-EMP9-EMT9X-EMPRO-EMGA-EMGF-EMTOUR)/EM99)
Government employment in region aa (EMGC,EMGM,
EMGS,EMGL)
*The program used to run the regionalization model converts the basic
sector employment from the scenario generator,utilizing output from the
MAP state economic model,into the basic sector employment definition
used in the regionalization model.
E-7
E-8
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May 1983
-
-
-
-.
....
-
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-and Economic Research
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May 1983
E.4.Variable and Parameter Namesr
Variables
....
"""I
M.aa
G.aa
B.aa
S.aa
S.aa.bb
P.aa
PCEN.cc
HH.aa
HHCEN.cc
Total employment,region aa (EM99)
Government employment,region aa(EMGC,EMGM,EMGS,EMGL)
Basic employment,region aa (EMP9,EMCN,EMM9,EMA9,EMTOUR,
EMT9X,EMPRO)
Support employment,region aa (M.aa -G.aa -B.aa)
Support employment in region aa caused by economic activity
in region bb
Populationa ,region aa
Population,region cc
Households,region aa
Households b ,region cc
Parameters
-A.aa.bb Proportion
increase in
region aa
of support sector employment stimulated
total employment in region bb which occurs
by
~n
IM.aa.bb Percent of workers employed ~n region bb who live in
region aa
PM.aa Ratio of population to residence-adjusted employment in
region aa
HHSZ.cc Average household size ~n 1980 in Census Division cc
PGQ.cc Population ~n group quarters in 1980 in Census Division cc
PC.cc.aa Proportion of population in region aa (1970 Census division
definiton)allocated to region cc (1980 Census area
definition)
aA preliminary population,PRE.aa,~s calculated for internal use.
bA preliminary household,HPRE.cc,~s calculated for internal use.
E-9
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
Suffixes
Use in Model
aa Labor Market Areas--1970 Census Divisions Yes *
01 Aleutian Islands x
02 Anchorage x "'""
03 Angoon 11
04 Barrow-North Slope x
05 Bethel x
06 Bristol Bay x (includes 7)
07 Bristol Bay Borough 6
08 Cordova-McCarthy x
"'""09 Fairbanks x i
I
10 Haines 11
11 Juneau x (includes 3,10,~
13,19,20, 22,
23,28)-12 Kenai-Cook Inlet x
13 Ketchikan 11
14 Kobuk x
15 Kodiak x
16 Kuskokwim x
17 Matanuska/Susitna x
18 Nome x
19 Outer Ketchikan 11
20 Prince of Wales 11
21 Seward x ""'"
22 Sitka 11
23 Skagway/Yakutat 11
24 Southeast Fairbanks x
25 Upper Yukon x
26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier x
27 Wade Hampton x
28 Wrangell/Petersburg 11
29 Yukon/Koyukuk x
ST State
RB Railbelt =2 +9 +12 +17 +21 +24 +26
AG Greater Anchorage 2 +12 +17 +21
AM Anchorage +MatSu 2 +17
NR Non-Railbelt =ST -RB
FG Greater Fairbanks =9 +24
IR Intertied Railbelt =RB -26 -
*Aggregated into area indicated.
E-10 -
cc --1980 Census Areas
01 North Slope
02 Kobuk
03 Nome
04 Yukon/Koyukuk
05 Fairbanks
06 Southeast Fairbanks
07 Wade Hampton
08 Bethel
09 Dillingham
10 Bristol Bay Borough
11 Aleutian Islands
12 Matanuska/Susitna
13 Anchorage
14 Kenai Peninsula
15 Kodiak
16 Valdez/Cordova
17 Skagway/Yakutat/Angoon
18 Haines
19 Juneau
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Used in Model
Yes *
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
10
x (includes 09)
x
x
x
x
x
x
19
19
x (includes 17,
18,20,21,22,
23)
20
21
22
23
Sitka
Wrangell/Petersburg
Prince of Wales/Outer Ketchikan
Ketchikan Borough
19
19
19
19
,~
*Aggregated into area indicated.
E-11
E-12
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and Economic Research
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May 1983
-
.I/WWil,
I
1II!lI!ilM,
-
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and Economic Research
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May 1983
E.5.Parameter Values
-HHSZ.cc
PGQ.cc
Average Household Size
Population in Group Quarters
These parameters are calculated from the 1980 census as shown in
Table E.l.
TABLE E.l.
-1980 Census Area Average Population in
(Aggregated as Household Size Group Quarters
Required by Model)(HHSZ.cc)(PGQ.cc)
....(thousands)
1 North Slope 3.91 .365
2 Kobuk 4.2 .048
3 Nome 3.7 .088
4 Yukon/Koyukuk 3.18 .614
5 Fairbanks 2.78 3.339
6 Southeast Fairbanks 3.16 .399
7 Wade Hampton 4.87 .055
8 Bethel 4.05 .1l8
9 Di11inghama 0 0
10 Bristol Bay Borough 3.68 .339
!"""II Aleutian Islands 3.27 2.548
12 Matanuska/Susitna 3.06 .324
13 Anchorage 2.80 4.848-14 Kenai Peninsula 2.92 .32
15 Kodiak 3.06 .681
16 Valdez/Cordova 2.84 .702
17 sk~gwab/Yakutat/AngOonb 0 0t18Ha1nes00
19 Juneau 2.89 1.418
20 Sitkab 0 0
21 Wrangell/Petersburgb 0 0
22 Prince of Wa1es/-Outer Ketchikanb 0 0
23 Ketchikanb 0 0
aAggregated with Bristol Bay Borough
bAggregated with Juneau
SOURCE:1980 Census of Population
E-13
PM.aa
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Ratio of Population to Residence-Adjusted Employment
-
-This parameter is calculated using the most recent population
and employment estimates of the Department of Labor (see Table
E.2).The 1981 population estimate is adjusted to a labor-market
basis using PC.cc.aa to be consistent with employment data by labor
markets.Employment by place of residence is estimated using the
interregional residence adjustment matrix,IM.aa.bb,applied to an
estimated 1981 regional distribution of employment.This estimate
is determined by running the regionalization model to allocate
regionally the estimated 1981 statewide employment.The simplest
way to accomplish this is to run the model once and then calibrate
PM.aa to hit the correct population figure.
E-l4
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.2.CALCULATION OF POPULATION/RESIDENT
EMPLO:YMENT RATIO (PM.aa)
Estimated Residence-
Adjusted Average
Annual Employment
Labor Market Area 1981
Census
Population
1981
Census Population
per Avg.Annual
Employed Resident
(PM.aa)
I~
-I
I
1 Aleutian Islands 2.556 8.624 3.374
2 Anchorage 87.458 180.740 2.066
4 Barrow/North Slope 1 .591 7.098 7.1
5 Bethel 2.983 9.579 3.211
6 Bristol Bay*1.920 5.716 2.977
8 Cordova/McCarthy .903 2.374 2.629
9 Fairbanks 26.047 58.313 2.239
11 Juneau**27.495 55.985 2.036
12 Kodiak/Cook Inlet 8.984 23.574 2.624
14 Kobuk 1.586 4.960 3.127
15 Kodiak 5.461 9.728 1.782
16 Kuskokwim .468 2.577 5.506
17 Matanuska-Susitna 6.183 19.123 3.093
18 Nome 1.910 7.565 3.961
21 Seward .757 2.947 3.893
24 Southeast Fairbanks 1.472 5.734 3.895
25 Upper Yukon .485 1.229 3.534
26 Valdez/Chitina/
Whittier 3.023 6.471 2.141
27 Wade Hampton 1.077 4.726 4.388
29 Yukon/Koyukuk 1.665 5.122 3.076
ST Statewide 183.024 422.185 2.307
1The 1980 population of 4.199 was used for Barrow due to a change l.n
the definition of residence in 1982.
*Includes 7
**Includes 3,10,13,19,20,22,23,28
E-15
A.aa.bb
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Interregional Employment Interaction Matrix
Regional employment for 1979 was available from the Alaska
Department of Labor publications,specifically Statistical Quarterly
and Alaska Economic Trends.The breakdown of such employment by
basic,government,and support sectors is shown in Table E.3 for
1979.
Since the major concern of the regional model is to capture the
effect of support sector demands which are supplied in regions other
than the one giving rise to such demands,rather than to examine the
effects of differential support demands across regions,it seems
plausible,or at least not overly restrictive,to impose the
condition that the ratio of support employment generated by a unit
of basic employment is the same wherever the basic employment
occurs.The difference between regions,then,is solely the
difference ~n the locations from which these demands will be
supplied.
This assumption has the obvious disadvantage that it neglects
real interregional differences in demand for support sector
services.However,it also has several advantages which may more
than compensate for this shortcoming.Most obviously,it reduces
our estimation problem by n-l parameters.More importantly,it is
extremely valuable as a tool for maintaining consistency with the
statewide MAP model,in both a static and a dynamic sense.
Currently,a unit of basic sector employment in the state model has
the same static employment impact regardless of its location in the
state.Regionally varying support/basic ratios would produce
differing total statewide static impacts by location,thus being
inconsistent with the state model.Furthermore,the introduction of
BETA (the ratio of support to total employment from the state model)
exogenously provides a valuable tool for maintaining dynamic
consistency between the models.By letting BETA vary with time so
as to reflec t the corresponding state model simulation,we both
force the matrix (A.aa.bb)to vary over time to reflect the same
degree of structural change represented by the state model and force
the employment totals to replicate the statewide results.
The major reason that not all support sector requirements are
supplied internally within the region ~s that it would be more
costly to do so than to secure those services from a different
region.It is only natural,then,that the cost of supply should be
the major determining factor in deciding to which other regions to
allocate the supply.Such costs as transportation,communication,
etc.are generally expected to increase with distance and to
decrease with the size of the support sector source for the region.
We hypothesize that the location of support services is chosen in
such a way as to minimize the costs of providing the required
services observed in region bb from each of the sources of such
supply aa.Cost between locations is an increasing function of
distance and an inverse function of employment in the supplying
region.
E-16
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.3.EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION,1979
....,
Region
1 Aleutian Islands
2 Anchorage
4 Barrow/North Slope
5 Bethel
6 Bristol Bay*
8 Cordova/McCarthy
9 Fairbanks
11 Southeast A1aska**
12 Kenai/Cook Inlet
14 Kobuk
15 Kodiak
16 Kuskokwim
17 Matanuska-Susitna
18 Nome
21 Seward
24 Southeast Fairbanks
25 Upper Yukon
26 Va1dez/Chitina/
Whittier
27 Wade Hampton
29 Yukon/Koyukuk
ST Statewide
377
45,404
594
1,917
839
403
11,191
9,475
2,819
402
1,644
123
1,505
1,083
433
240
99
715
208
506
79,977
2,463
13,828
3,467
420
1,778
1,005
3,584
9,284
3,564
114
3,631
13
560
298
709
149
25
678
236
807
46,613
Government 2
(Gi)
3,264
34,009
1,514
1,360
1,197
344
12,801
11 ,081
1,481
935
2,051
435
1,345.
980
390
1,636
302
927
595
1,208
77 ,855
Total
(Mi)
6,104
93,241
5,575
3,697
3,814
1,752
27,576
29,840
7,864
1,451
7,326
571
3,410
2,361
1,532
2,025
426
2,320
1,039
2,521
204,445
1Mining,manufacturing,
fisheries,and miscellaneous.
construe tion,agriculture-forestry-
r-',
2Federa1,state,and local government
*Inc1udes Bristol Bay and Bristol Bay Borough Census Divisions
**Inc1udes the following Census Divisions:Angoon,Haines,Juneau,
Ketchikan,Outer Ketchikan,Prince of Wales,Sitka,Skagway-Yakutat,
and Wrangell-Petersburg.
SOURCE:Alaska Economic Projections for Electricity Requirements
for the Rai1be1t,ISER,1981.
E-17
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The A.aa.bb matrix was estimated by a linear programming routine
for the problem of minimizing the cost of service delivery using
1979 data.It is presented in Table E.4.The solution.A.aa.bb,
comprises a matrix which we call the interregional employment
interaction matrix.Each entry represents the share of support
requirements for region bb supplied from region aa.Each of the
columns.therefore.must sum to unity.Thus,a quick glance down
each column provides a subjective test of the plausibility of the
matrix.!priori,one would expec t nonzero entries in all of the
diagonal elements and along the rows of the regional support centers
(Bethel.Fairbanks.Nome)and probably along the entire row
corresponding to Anchorage.which is a statewide support center.
The pattern is as would have been expected.All diagonal terms are
nonzero,with the larger support centers being self-sufficient
vis-a-vis the rest of the state (having diagonal entries of U.
Anchorage and Fairbanks appear to be the only significant support
centers,with Anchorage supplying most regions and Fairbanks
supplying Kuskokwim.Upper Yukon.and Yukon/Koyukuk.Two local
support centers emerge.with Bethe 1 supporting Wade Hamption and
Nome supporting Kobuk.
-
.-
-
~I
A complete description of the methodology used
matrix appears in Alaska Economic Projections
Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt.ISER.
E-18
to derive this
for Estimating
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
r-TABLE E.4.INTERREGIONAL EMPLOYMENT INTERACTION MATRIX (A.aa.bb)
~Demand Region
Supply Region 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
01 A1eu t ian 1s1and s .16
F"02 Anchorage .84 1..73 .44 .41 .19 .08 .01 .43 .28 .7 .21 .25
04 Barrow .27
05 Bethel 1..49
,-06 Bristol Bay .56
08 Co rdova/McCa rthy .59
09 Fairbanks 1..45 .41 .24
11 Southeas tAl ask a .81
12 Kena i/Cook In 1et .92
r-
14 Kobuk .71
t"'"15 Kodiak .57
I
i
!16 Kuskokwim .55
17 Matanuska/Susitna 1.
18 Nome .28 1.
21 Seward .72
24 S.E.Fairbanks .3
25 Upper Yukon .59
26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier .79
I""
27 Wade Hampton .51
29 Yukon/Koyukuk .51r-
E-19
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
IM.aa.bb Interregional Residence Adjustment Matrix
The interregional residence adjustment matrix calculates the
place of residence of workers employed in Alaska.It is an expanded
and refined version of the Interregional Wage and Employee Flow
Matrix constructed for the econometric model of Anchorage (see
Municipality of Anchorage:Economic Modeling Project,ISER,1982,
p.II-24).
Four sources of information are used to construct the matrix.
The first is the U.S.Census data on commuting which provides
information on the proportion of residents in a region who are
employed outside the region.The second is an analysis of tax
returns by Alaskan places which,when compared to wages and salaries
earned by place of work,provides a comparison of wages earned by
workers in a region and workers living in a region.The third is
the residency adjustment figures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis
which provides another estimate of the ratio of wage and salary
income earned in a region to resident wage and salary income.The
fourth is the preliminary results of a special census for
oi l-related work sites on Alaska's North Slope conducted by the
Alaska Department of Labor which reports usual place of residence of
oil field employees.This census provided the basis for the column
vector of the matrix for Barrow,after adjustment for non-oil-
related employment on the North Slope.
Filling in the other cells of the matrix involved a judgmental
approach because the available data left too ~any degrees of freedom
to specify values for the 360 remaining cells.
The first step was calculation of the diagonal elements--the
proportion of employment in each region done by residents of the
region.This involved the following equation:
1M =(1-%)*WR.aa.aa
WP
where %is the proportion of workers reporting employment outside
their census area of residence.in 1980 (1980 Census Table 36,STF3);
WR is wages reported by residents on their 1978 income tax returns
(Federal Income Taxpayer Profile 1978,Alaska Department of Revenue,
1981);and WP is wages and salaries paid in 1978 by labor market
area (Statistical Quarterly,Alaska Department of Labor).The
resulting parameter is net of both outflows of wages by nonresidents
and inflows of wages by commuting residents.Table E.5 shows the
ratio of wages reported to wages paid in 1978 and demonstrates a
considerable amount of job commuting,particularly in certain census
divisions.
E-20
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.....,
......
!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.5.WAGES PAID BY LOCATION AND WAGES EARNED
BY RESIDENTS IN 1978
(million $)
-
Census Division
Matanuska-Susitna
Kobuk
Skagway/Yakutat
Haines
Kenai/Cook Inlet
Upper Yukon
Valdez/Chitina/
Whittier
Wade Hampton
Seward
Bethel
(1)
Wages a
Paid
52.5
15.5
12.5
6.8
147.3
5.5
40.7
8.7
20.2
36.0
(2)
Wages b
Reported
by
Residents
110.4
21.5
14.6
7.4
160.4
6.0
44.3
9.0
19.1
31.7
(2)-(1)
Net Inflo
(Outflo)
58.2
6.0
2.1
0.6
13.1
0.5
3.6
0.3
<1.1>
(4.3)
(3)/(1)
Wages
Reported
as Percent
of Wages Paid
211
139
117
110
109
109
109
103
95
88
Juneau
Anchorage
Fairbanks
Ketchikan
Nome
Angoon
Wrangell/Petersburg
Kuskokwim
Sitka
Southeast Fairbanks
191.9
1,737.3
532.6
102.6
32.6
2.4
41.0
8.8
73.1
26.1
169.0
1,513.2
459.0
86.6
27.3
2.0
33.6
6.9
56.7
19.4
(22.9)
(224.1>
(73.6)
<16.0)
(5.3)
(0.4)
(7.4)
(1.9)
<16.4)
(6.7)
88
87
86
84
84
83
82
79
78
74
3,634.1
1,102,062.0
Bristol Bay
Outer Ketchikan
Kodiak
Yukon/Koyukuk
Cordova/McCarthy
Prince of Wales
Bristol Bay Br.
Aleutian Islands
Barrow/North Slope
Alaska
United States
17.8
8.4
86.7
54.4
21.8
14.7
13.9
85.3
237.3
13.0
5.9
60.6
32.8
12.6
7.5
5.7
14.5
27.0
2,977.9
1,092 ,000.0
(4.8)
(2.5)
(26.1>
(21.6)
(9.2 )
(7.2)
(8.2 )
(70.8)
(210.3)
(656.2)
(10,062.0)
73
70
70
60
58
51
41
17
11
82
99
r
aU.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis.
bA1aska Department of Revenue,Federal Income Taxpayers Profile
1978,December 1981.
E-21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Off-diagonal elements are best understood by thinking of the
columns where the elements in a particular column represent the
percentage of employees working in the location represented by that
column who live in each census area.To determine these elements,
three assumptions are made.First,Alaskan residents earn no wage
income outside of Alaska.Second,non-Alaskan residents can earn
wage income in Alaska.Third,based upon a general knowledge of the
state,certain elements can be assumed to be zero,thus reducing the
number of degrees of freedom for the problem considerably.The
matrix was then regionally aggregated into seven regions,and the
wage income earned by nonresidents in each region was allocated to
the other six and out of the state so that each column summed to one
and each row completely allocated all earned income.The resulting
parameters were then split into the twenty regions proportionately,
except in a few instances where judgment about local conditions
resulted in an adjustment.The full matrix is shown as Table E.6.
E-22
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-
,....
-
-
-
-
-
,~
-Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABlE E.6.INTERREGIONAL RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT MATRIX (IM.aa.bb)
Place of Work
Place of Residence 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
01 Aleutian Islands .41
02 Anchorage .09 .86 .38 .09 .09 .02 .02 .02 .09 .02
04 Barrow .08
05 Bethel 0 .86 .02
I"""
06 Bristol Bay .5
08 Cordova/MeGa rthy .55
09 Fairbanks •16 .86 .05
11 Southeast Alaska .01 .84
12 Kena it
Cook In let .02 .06 .02 .02 .97 .02
14 Kobuk .01
15 Kodiak .02 .02 .69 .02
16 Kuskokwim .78
17 Matanuska/
f""'"Susitna .02 .02 .06 .02 .02 .01 .01 .01 .02 .01
I 18 .0 .79Nome
21 Seward .80
24 S.E.Fairbanks .01 .69,...,.
25 Upper Yukon .005
26 Va ldez/Ch i ti na/
Whittier .01
27 Wade Hampton
29 Yukon/Koyukuk .01 .61
!"""'
Total Residential*.56 .88 .78 .99 .65 .58 .86 .84 .74 .93 .79 .83 .75 .61
Out of Alaska .44 .12 .22 .01 .35 .43 •14 •16 0 0 .26 .07 0 .21 .17 .25 0 0 0 .39
,~*Components may not sum to total due to rounding.
E-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PC.cc.aa 1970 to 1980 Census Boundary Allocations
These allocations are based upon population by place from the 1980
Census.
-
PC.04.16
PC.04.25
PC.06.25
PC.08.16
.5079
.9475
.0525
.4921
SOURCE:1980 Census,Population data by place
E-24
-..,
-,
JII"!!,
-
-
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
E.6.Model Validation
The regionalization model has been initialized on 1981
population.The year 1981 is considered to be less affected by the
temporary effects of the business cycle and the permanent fund
dividend distribution program than 1982.
Because accurate historical data on interregional commuter
patterns and a complete historical data set on basic employment by
region are not available,it is not possible to do a historical
simulation using the regionalization model.It is possible to
compare the historical trends in the regional distribution of
employment and population with the projections.
Historically,the proportion of state employment occurring in
the railbel t has remained remarkably constant (Table E.7).Aside
from the years of peak construction of the oil pipeline,the
proportion has ranged between 67.1 and 68.6 percent since 1965.On
the other hand,there has been an increasing concentration of
population in the railbelt,growing from 62.1 percent of the total
in 1960 to 68.9 percent in 1980 (Table E.8).
The differentially more rapid population growth in the railbelt
(and conversely the differentially slower population growth outside
of the railbelt)is an interesting phenomenon explained partially by
the nature of the labor market.The demand for labor has been
increasing at a rapid pace historically throughout the state I as
reflected by the employment data.The growth in population through
in-migration augments the supply of labor to clear the labor
market.Outside of the railbelt,rates of unemployment have
historically been higher,indicating that employment can increase
without requiring population increase through in-migration.In
March 1982,for example,the unemployment rates for the railbelt and
nonrailbelt were 10.8 and 13.7 pecent,respectively.
The uncertainty surrounding projections of the regional
distribution of population is not so much where the employment
opportun1 t1es are located but where those workers who have the
skills necessary to do those jobs choose to live.The assumption
reflected in the structure of the regionalization model is that
there will be a continuation of the trend in concentration of
population in the railbelt but that the moderation of the growth
rate in population through in-migration will slow this trend.
E-25
TABLE E.7.EMPLOYMENT
(thousand)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
Matanuska-Cook Inlet Southeast
Anchorage Susitna (Includes Seward)Fairbanks Fairbanks Railbelt State
M.02 M.17 M.12 +M.21 M.09 M.24 M.I R %of M.ST IIIIOI!\Total
Historical ~
1965 47.8 1.2 3.3 21.8 74.1 67.7 109.5
1966 48.2 1.2 4.1 21.8 75.3 67.7 111.3
1967 49.3 1.2 5.3 21.6 77.4 67.3 115.0
1968 50.0 1.1 6.1 22.1 79.3 67.7 117.2
1969 54.6 1.1 5.6 24.0 85.3 68.1 125.3
1970 58.0 1.2 5.0 24.3 88.5 68.5 129.2
1971 60.6 1.5 5.0 23.7 90.8 68.4 132.7
1972 63.3 1.6 5.1 23.4 93.4 68.6 136.1 -,
1973 65.5 1.7 5.4 22.6 95.2 67.7 140.7
1974 73.3 1.9 5.8 26.5 107.5 68.0 158.2
1975 83.8 2.1 7.5 37.0 130.4 67.1 194.3
1976 86.7 2.4 7.9 37.0 134.0 66.6 201.2
1977 91.7 2.7 8.6 31.9 134.9 70.0 192.6
1978 90.6 3.1 7.8 29.4 130.9 68.4 191.5 -,
1979 91.3 3.3 8.1 29.3 132.0 68.2 193.7
Projection ~
1981 99.3 3.4 9.3 31.2 143.2 65.5 218.5 -1990 125.1 4.2 12.5 36.8 178.6 64.3 277.6
2000 140.3 4.4 12.6 40.2 197.5 65.8 300.1 -2010 168.6 5.1 14.6 47.0 235.4 67.9 346.7 -
HISTORICAL DATA SOURCE:I SER data base;employment includes active-duty military and reservists
but not proprietors.
PROJECTION DATA SOURCE:Projection HER.9;employment includes proprietors.-
E-26
E-27
E-28
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-I
A83RUNCD
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
E.7.Programs for Model Use
This MACRO takes output from a simulation using the
state economic model and inputs provided by the
scenario generator on basic and government sector
emp1 oymen t by census division and runs the
regiona1ization model.
The definition of basic sector plus government
employment in the regionalization model includes the
following categories of employment:
EMP9
EMM9
EMCN
EMA9
EMT9X
EMPRO
EMTOUR
EMGA
EMGF
Mining
Total Manufacturing
Total Construction
Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries
Exogenous Transportation
Proprietor Employment
Tourism Employment
State and Local
Federal
In the state model,however,EMTOUR,EMGA,and
portions of EMA9,EMM9,EMCN,and EMPRO ar~
endogenous and thus not provided on a regional basis
from the scenario generator.This program includes
a procedure for converting the endogenous portions
of these industries to exogenous and regionalizing
them.
Specifically,the following variables are
regionalized and added to Baa to derive B.aa:
EMCN1 Endogenous Construction
EMA9-EMAGR1-EMAFISH Forestry and Nonc1assifiab1e
EMPR01 Endogenous Proprietor Employment
EMTOUR Tourism Employment
EMMO Endogenous Manufacturing
In addition,the following variable is regionalized
and added to Gaa to derive G.aa:
EMGA State and Local Government Employment
The parameters used in the regional allocation of
these variables are calculated using the 1979
regional distribution of employment.The values
used are shown in the accompanying table (Table E.9).
E-29
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
~p Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.9.PARAMETER VALUES USED IN REGIONAL ALLOCATION
OF CERTAIN EXOGENOUS VARIABLES*
Region State and ~
Number Endogenous Local
aa Construction Forestry Proprietors Tourism Government
1 .01 0 .02 0 .01
2 .57 .45 .46 .33 .34
4 .03 0 0 0 .03
5 .01 0 .01 0 .03
6 .01 0 .01 0 .02
8 0 0 .01 .01 .01
9 .16 .27 .11 .13 .13
11 .10 .04 .23 .30 .22
12 .04 .17 .05 .07 .04
14 0 0 0 0 .02
15 .01 .02 .04 .04 .02 ~,
16 0 0 0 0 .01
17 .02 .02 .02 .1 .03
18 0 .02 .01 0 .02 .-,
21 0 0 .01 0 .01
24 0 0 .01 0 .01
25 0 0 0 0 .01
26 .01 0 .01 .ll .02
27 0 0 0 0 .01
29 .01 .01 0 0 .01
*May not sum to 1 due to rounding error.
-
E-30
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP DoclJ1'lE!nta t i on
Hay 1983
APPENDIX F
ISER MAP ALASKA ECOrOnC HODEL:
VARIABLE AND PARAMETER DICTIONARY
T
T
Variable
ADHOIS
ADHREA
ADHSD
AEX
AFTOT
AGI
AHG
ANCSA
Definition;Units
average daily membership in district schools;thousand
average da i 1Y membersh i pin REM schools;thousand
average daily membership in district and REM schools;
thousand
Alaskan personal incone tax ex~tions;million $
total anned forces personnel in 1980
gross income reported on Alaskan state personal
income tax returns;million $
Alaskan highway gasoline consumption per vehicle;
gallons
payment to Alaska Natives by federal and state
government under Alaska Native Claims Settlement
Act;mi 11 ion $
Historical Data Sourcea
AOE.Annual Report
AOE.Annual Report
AOE.Annual Report
COnstructed from IRS.Statistics
of Income.ADL.Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data.
and 1970 U.S.census
Alaska Air Command and Kruse,
Design and Implementation of
Alaska,1980 Reapportionment
Data COllection Effort
COnstructed from IRS.Statistics
of Income.AOL,Statistical
QuarterlY and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S.census
COnstructed from Alaska Native
Land Claims,Arnold and BEA
personal income data
a No entry indicates either a constructed variable or no historical data available.
Data Source Abbreviations:
ADA -Alaska Department of Administration
ADC -Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development
ADCR -Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs
AOE -Alaska Department of Education
AOL -Alaska Department of Labor
AOPW -Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities
ADR -Alaska Department of Revenue
BEA -U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis
BOC -U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of census
.IRS -U.S.Department of Treasury,Internal Revenue Service
Variable
ATD
ATI
ATI.TT
ATT
BADD
BAl99
BAl99 1
BAlCAB
BAlCABBM
BAlCAP84
Definition;Units
Alaska personal income tax deductions;million $
Alaska state personal income tax taxable income;
mill ion $
Alaska state taxable personal income per
taxpayer;thousand $
Alaska state personal income tax returns -
individual plus joint returns;thousand
birth adjustment factor to account for birth of
Native children to non-Native women
camined state fund balances;million $
initial camined state 'fund balances;
mi 11 ion $
state general fund revenues minus general fund
expenditures;million $
unrestricted general fund revenues minus
unrestricted general fund expenditures
net additions to the state capital stock put
in place after 1983,inflated to current
dollar value;million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data sourcea
Constructed from IRS,Statistics
of Income,ADl Statistical
quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S.census
Constructed from IRS,Statistics
of Income,ADt Statistical
quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S.census
constructed fram IRS Statistics
of Income and ADl Statistical
Quarterly
ADA,Annual Financial Report
-
-
BAlDF development fund balance;million $
BAlDFl
BAlGF
BAlGFl
BAlGFCP
initial state development fund (hypothetical)
balance;million $
state general fund balance (available for
appropriations);million $
initial state general fund balance;million $
positive change in general fund balance fram year to
year (if change negative,this takes zero value);
million $
F-2
ADA,Annual Financial Report
BASEPOP
BCRUDE
BIU
Definition;Units
state general fund balance if positive;if state
general fund balance negative.then zero;million $
state plus local government current account balance;
mi 11 ion $
local government revenues minus nondebt financed
expenditures;mi 11 ion $
permanent fund balance;million $
initial state permanent fund balance;
million $
a base case vector of EI'tCNX values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of POP va 1ues used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of EXCAP values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
base case expenditure value to be placed in
impact run to calculate difference in state
expendi tures in rea 1 per cap i ta tenns
a base case vector of EXOPS values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
base case value of RPI to be input into
impact run to calculate difference in state
expenditures in real per capita tenns
Alaska crude civilian birth rate
the Basic Instructional Unit for School
Foundation distribution program;thousand $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA.Annual Financial Report
ADE.Annual Report
BIUl initial value of Basic Instructional Unit for
School Foundation distribution program;thousand $
I
:
BL Alaska business licenses issued;thousand
F-3
AOR.unpubl i shed data
Variable
BTHTOT
Definition;Units
total Alaska civilian non-Native births to
civilian population
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Docunentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
-
BTOT total Alaska civilian births;thousand
C***stochastic coefficient
CBR Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate
CDR Alaska crude civilian non-Native death rate
CEabN
CHHij
CNNPij
CNNTOT
COLA
CPGQij
Cij
D.80DEC6
DCRUDE
OEBTP82
DELEMP
OF.***'
proportion of Native ~loyment in sector ab
Alaska households headed by civilian non-
Native persons in cohort ij
Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
total Alaska civilian non-Native population
federal cost of living adjusbnent for Alaska
state personal incane tax purposes;mill ion $
fraction of civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters
Alaska civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij before migration
dtmnY variable with value of 1 for year or
period of years indicated;units
dtmnY variable with value of one in 1980
tapering off to zero in 6 years,reflecting
the fact that Alaskan wage rates are "sticky
downward"
Alaska crude civilian death rate
sun of general obligation bonded debt
incurred by the state after 1982;million $
annual change in civilian ~loyment (EM96);
thousand
variable deflated to 1982 dollars (PORPIBAS is base
year index);
F-4
1970 u.S.census.Alaska public
use safl1)les
Constructed from ADL Statistical
Quarterlv and PCOLART
BOC.1980 census Tape STF2B
III!IOI,
-
T
,Pr'"
\1
(!
I
Vadable
OF.RSVP
OPI
OPts
ElEDCP
ElNEDl
ELPERS
EM.EMCN
EM.EMG9
EM.EMGA
Definition;Units
cumulative discounted value of petroleum
revenues received fran 1982;million 1982 $.
Alaska disposable personal incane;million $
Alaska disposable personal incane plus
residency adjustment;million $
total nonfederal,nonstate personal incane
tax payments paid out of Alaskan personal
income for purposes of calculating disposable
personal incane;million $
Alaska infant civilian non-Native deaths
total Alaska civilian non-Native deaths
total Alaska civilian deaths
total local government expenditures;million $
local government debt service;million $
local government education expenditures;million $
local government education expenditures
fran own sources;mi 11 ion $
local government education expenditures for
capital outlays;million $
local gOvernment non-education expenditures
net of debt service;million $
local government personal services expenditures;
mi 11 ion $
ratio of construction to total employment
ratio of total government to total employment
ratio of state and local government to total
employment
F-S
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Histor;cal Data Sourcea
BEA disposable personal incane.
data '&ADA,Annual Financial
Report
BEA di sposab 1e persona 1 i ncane
data &ADA,Annual Financial
~
BEA,disposable personal incane
data
BOC,Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
Constructed fran ADA,Executive
Budget and BOC,State Government
Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
Var;able
EM.EHGF
EM.EI1NR
EM.EHNS
EM.EMP9
EM.EMSP
EH.EMSUP
EM.EMTCU
EH96
EH97
EH98
EH99
EMAFISH
EHAGRI
Definit;oni Units
ratio of federal goverrrnent to total eq>loyment
ratio of total minus support type (SP).
goverrrnent.construction,and petroleun
eq>loyment to total eq>loyment
ratio of total minus support type (SP)and
government to total eq>loyment
rat;o of mining to total eq>loyment
ratio of service type <T9.CM,PU,09.Fl.S9)
to total eq>loyment
ratio of trade.f;nance.and service to total
eq>loyment
rat;o of transport.call1lJnicat;on.and public
utilities to total eq>loyment
total wage and salary plus proprietor eq>loyment;
thousand
nonagricultural wage &salary eq>loyment;
thousand
wage and salary and military eq>loyment;thousand
total wage and salary.noowage and salary
(proprietor),and military eq>loyment;thousand
wage and salary c~nent of fish harvesting
eq>loyment;thousand
wage and salary component of agriculture
eq>loyment;thousand
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
l4ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOl.Alaska labor Force
Estimates and Statistical
QuarterlY
ADl.Statistical quarterly
-
-,
EMCNl construction eq>loyment net of exogenous
construction eq>loyment;thousand
EMCNRT ratio of premium wage construction eq>loyment
to EM98 net of premium wage construction
eq>loyment.Elrployed as a measure of labor
market "tightness";percent -
EMCNX exogenous construction eq>loyment;thousand
F-6
,~
~,
I:
Variable
EI1CNXl
EI1CNX2
Ef1ClJ
Ef10R
EHrM
EHORNT
EHDTOOR
Ef1FISH
Definition;Units
"enclave"high (premiun)wage exogenous
construction employment;thousand
non-"enclave"low (normal)wage exogenous
construction employment;thousand
communications plus pUblic utilities
employment;thousand
employment in retai 1 trade;thousand
employment in wholesale trade;thousand
employment in retail trade net.of tourism;
thousand
tourism employment in trade sector;thousand
fish harvesting employment;thousand
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from AOl,unpublished
worksheets
ADl,Statistical QuarterlY
ADl,Statistical QuarterlY
Dnprovements to Specification
of the HAP f10del
G.Rogers,Measuring the Socio-
economic Impact of Alaska's
Fisheries
EI1G9
El4GA
Ef1GC
Ef1GF,.,..
i,'I
!Ef1Gl
Ef1GM
Ef1GS
EMM91
T EHMO
M""Ef1f1X
I
Ef1f1Xl
If
federal,state,and local government
employment;thousand
state and local government employment;thousand
federal civilian employment;thousand
federal civilian and military employment;thousand
local government employment;thousand
military employment;thousand
state government employment;thousand
manufacturing employment net of new large
project employment (Ef1f1Xl);thousand
employment in endogenous manufacturing;
thousand
exogenous manufacturing employment;thousand
high (premiun)wage exogenous manufacturing
employment;thousand
F-7
ADl.Statistical QuarterlY
ADl,Statistical Quarterly
ADl
ADl,Statistical Quarterly
AOl,Statistical Quarterly
ADl,Statistical Quarterly
EHHA Native employment;thousand
Variable
EHMX2
EMNAT
EHHATX
EMNC
EMNNC
EMNR
EMNS
EMOCSX
EMP9
EHPRO
EHPROFIS
EMPROl
EMMTE
EHRATN
EHRATNl
Definition;Units
low wage exogenous manufacturing employment;
thousand
Native employment obtained from the income
distribution model;thousand
Native employment obtained from the income
distribution IOOdel;thousand
Native Corporation direct employment;thousand
total civilian non-Native employment;thousand
total employment minus support type (SP),
government,construction.and mining;
thousand
total employment minus support type (SP)and
government
sum of mining,exogenous construction.
exogenous transportation.and high wage
exogenous manufacturing employment;
thousand
mining employment;thousand
total proprietor employment;thousand
fish harvesting proprietor employment;
thousand
proprietor employment net of fish harvesting;
thousand
ratio of wage and salary plus proprietor
employment to civilian population
Native employment rate based on Native enrollments;
percent
interim calculation of Native employment rate;
percent
F-8
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADl.Statistical quarterlY
.-
ADl,Statistical Quarterly
BEA employment data
DOl,Statistical Quarterly;
BEA employment data;and G.Rogers,
Measuring the Socioeconomic Impact
of Alaska's Fisheries
-
-
-.
-
-
F-9
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 '
Historical Data Sourcea
ADL.Statistical Quarterly
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Sped fi cat ion
of the MAP Model
ADL.Statistical QuarterlY
Variable
EX.NRP9
EX.PET
EX.R99S
EX.RP9S
EX.RSEN
EX.RSIN
EX.RVNT
Definition;Units
ratio of state nonpetroleum revenues to
total state general fund expenditures
ratio of "en<bllnent"type revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of general fund plus Pennanent Fund
revenues to total state general fund
expenditures
ratio of petroleun revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of endogenous revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of total fund earnings to total state
general fund expenditures
ratio of general fund revenues net of
permanent fund contributions to total state
general fund expenditures
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
-
-
EXggS total state government expenditures fram
all funds--capital and operating;million $
EXANNU
EXANSAV
EX8.t.CAB
EXBM.END
EXBM.FD
EXBM.GRl
if EXRlOPS is in effect in the state operating
expenditure equation,the base amount of the
annuity which adds to state operating
expenditures;$
amount of state government saving when using
fiscal rule option EXRlOPS;million $
ratio of general fund current account balance
(BAlCABBM)to unrestricted general fund
expenditures
ratio of development fund withdrawals (EXDFWITH)
to unrestricted general fund expenditures
ratio of total fund balance (BAl99)to
unrestricted general fund expenditures
ratio of revenues net of petroleun (RSGF8M+EXPFCON-
EXPFBAK*RSIP-RP9S)to unrestricted general fund
expenditures
F-10
I"l'"
I
Variable
EXBM.RV
EXBOND
EXBUD
EXCAP
EXCAPl
EXCAPFR
EXCAPII1P
EXCAPNEW
EXCAPOLD
EXCAPREP
EXCDS
EXCDS4
EXCDSNT
EXCPS
...
Definition;Units
ratio of general fund unrestricted revenues to
unrestricted general fund expenditures
proport i on of capi ta1 expenditures financed
by general 001 igation bonds and federal grants;
percent
state operati ng expenditures as defi ned in the
budget;million $
total state capital expenditures;million $
initial state capital expenditures;million $
capital expenditures for ferries--assumed to be
purchases out of state;million $
per capi ta iq>act state capi tal expendi tures
used with fiscal rule EXRL4
new additions to state capital stock in a
given year;mill ion $
state.spending to replace capital stock put
in place prior to 1984
capital expenditures necessary to replace
state capital stock which depreciates
each year;mi 11 ion $
state development operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
initial model estimate of state development
operating expenditures net of debt service
before application of RATI01;million $
deve lopme"t carponent of the state operati ng
budget net of transfers to local government;
mi 11 ion $
construction expenditures from state capital
project funds;million $
F-ll
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADA,
Annual Financial Report
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADPW unpublished data
Goldsmith and Mogford,The
Relationship Between the
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
and State and Local Govern-
ment Expenditures
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Annual Financial Report
IIl'll
Institute of Social and
Economic Research ""!1
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Variable Definition;Units Hi stori cal Data Sourcea
EXCPSFED portion of capital project fund revenues from ADA.Annual Financial Report
federal capital grants;million $
EXCPSGOB portion of capi tal project fund revenues fran ADA.Annual Financial Report
bond sales;million $-
EXCPSHY highway construction expenditures out of state ADA.Annual Financial Report
capital project construction funds;million $
EXCPSHYl initial highway construction expenditures out,
of state capital project construction funds;~
million $
EXCPSM portion of capital project fund revenues from ADA.Annual Financial Report
bond sales (used to calculate bond maturation);~
million $
EXCPSNH nonhighway construction expenditure out of ADA.Annual Financial Report
state capital project construction funds;
million $-EXCPSNHl initial nonhighway construction expenditures
out of state capital project construction funds;
million $
EXDFl percent of state current account balance placed
into development fund (hypothetical);percent -EXDFCON development fund contribution;million $!
EXDFPCNT percent of development fund earnings withdrawn;""""percent
EXDFWITH development fund withdrawals;million $
.-r
EXDSS annual debt service pa~nt to service general ADA.Annual Financial Report
obl igation bonded debt of the state;
mill ion $•
EXDSSX annual debt service payment to service general ADA.Annual Financial Report
obligation bonds outstanding at beginning of .,simulation period;million $
EXEDS state education operating expenditures net ADA.Executive Budget
of debt service;million $""!1
EXEDS4 state education operating expenditure net of debt
service before application of RATI01;million $-
F-12
""'!'
I !
r-
I 'Variable
EXEDSNT
EXEL 1
EXEL2
EXEL3
EXEL4
Definition;Units
state education operating expenditures net
of transfers to local govermaent;million $
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to popUlation
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to prices
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to real per capita personal incane
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to personal incane
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
EXELS elasticity of state expenditures to personal
incane net of "enclave"en.,loyment-related
incane (PI3)
EXEL6 elasticity of state expenditures to popUlation
net of "enclave"construction en.,loyment
T
EXGF
EXGFBM
EXGFCAP
EXGFCHY
EXGFCHYl
EXGFCNH
EXGFCNHl
EXGFOPER
EXGGS
state general fund expenditures;million $
state general fund expenditures net of
expenditures from restricted revenues;million $
state general fund capital outlays--actual
disbursements;million $
state general fund capital expenditures for
highways;million $
initial state general fund capital expenditures
for highways;million $
state general fund capital expenditures nonhighways;
million $
initial state general fund capital expenditures
nonhighways;million $
state general fund operating expenditures;mi 11 ion $
state general govermaent operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
F-13
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Executive Budget
Variable Definition;Units
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation -.
f'ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
EXGGS4
EXHES
EXHES4
EXHYCAP
EXINREC
EXJUS
EXJUS4
EXLIH
EXLIH82
EXLIMOK
EXNHYCP
EXNOPS
EXNRS
EXNRS4
EX0H84
initial model estimate,of state general government
operat i ng expendi tures net of debt servi ce before
application of RATI01;million $
state health operating expenditures net of debt
service;million $
state health operating expenditures net of debt
service before application of RATI01;million $
state capital expenditures for highways;million $
state government interagency receipts;million $
state administration of justice operating
expenditures net of debt service;million $
state administration of justice operating
expenditures net of debt service before
application of RATI01;million $
state expenditures allowed by constitutionally
mandated spending linrit;million $
constitutionally mandated 1982 state spending
limit;million $
actual state expenditures which can be supported
by revenues and general fund balance under
constitutionally mandated spending limit;million $
state capital expenditures for nonhighway projects;
million $
state expenditures--total net of the operating
budget;million $
state natural resource operating expenditures
net of debt service;mi 11 ion $
state natural resource operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATI01;
mi 11 ion $
annual operations and maintenance cost
associated with incremental state capital
stock put in place in 1984 and succeeding
.years;million $
F-14
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Annua1 Financial Report
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Executive Budget
-
-
-
-
fTI ,
Fj
I II,
I~
Variable
EXOMCOST
EXONTR
EXOPS
EXOPSl
EXOPSII1P
Definition;Units
annual operations and maintenance cost of
incremental state capital stock (EX0H84)
as a percentage of original cost;percent
state operating expenditures net of local
government transfers;million $
total state operating expenditures net of debt
service and University of Alaska nongeneral
fund assistance.It is the sum of the
nine functional categories;million $
initial total state operating expenditures
net of debt service and University of Alaska
nongeneral fund assistance.It is the sum of the
nine functional categories;million $
per capita impact state operation expenditure
used with fiscal rule EXRl4
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Docllllentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA.Executive Budget
ADA.Executive BUdget
Goldsmith and I1ogford.The
Relationship Between the
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
and State and local Government
Expenditures
EXPFl percent contribution from available funds to
~Permanent Fund;percent
EXPFBAK percent of Permanent Fund earnings plowed back
!"!'"into the Permanent Fund;percentage
EXPFCON total contributions to Permanent Fund.
inclUding special appropriations and
I""'"reinvested earnings;million $
EXPFCONl contributions to the Permanent Fund.not
inclUding special appropriations;million $
EXPFCONX special Permanent Fund contributions appropriated
from the general fund;mill ion $
EXPFDIST percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred
to general fund which are distributed to
"'I""individuals;percent,,
!
EXPFNEW constitutionally mandated Permanent Fund con-ADR.Revenue Sources
r-tributions from petroleum revenues;mill ion $
i:i:reinvested Permanent Fund earnings;million $EXPFREIN
,1'1"'\F-15
Vadable
EXPPS
EXPPS4
EXPR99
EXPRCDS
EXPREDSl
EXPRGGS
EXPRHES
EXPRJUS
EXPRNRS
EXPRPER
EXPRPPS
EXPRSSS
EXPRTRS
EXPRUA
state public protection operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
state public protection operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATI01;
million $
total state personnel expenditures;million $
state personnel expenditures for development;
mil];on $
state personnel expenditures for education
net of University of Alaska;million $
state personnel expenditures for general
goverrrnent;million $
state personnel expenditures for health;million $
state personnel expenditures for administration
of justice;million $
state personnel expenditures for natural resources;
million $
adjustment to state personnel expenditures
data for consistency with state goverrrnent
~lo~nt data;percent
state personnel expenditures for public protection;
million $
state personnel expenditures for social services;
mi 11 ion $
state personnel expenditures for transportation;
mi 11 ion $
wages and salaries of University of Alaska;
million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA.Executive BUdget
ADA.Executive Budget
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA.Executive BUdget
ADA,Executi ve Budget
ADA.Executive Budget
ADA.Executive Budget I
ADA.Executive Budget
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive Budget
constructed from University of
Alaska records and ADl data
-
-
-
EXRll policy switch which,if set at 1,detenmines state
operating expenditure growth based primarily upon
aggregate demand;
F-16
-
,,
"!
Variable
EXRL2
EXRL3
EXRL4
EXRl40P
EXRL5
EXRLOP6
EXRLOP7
Definition;units
policy switch which.if set at 1.detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
exogenous growth rate
policy swi tch wh i ch.if set at 1.detenni nes
state expendi ture growth based upon real per
capita operating expenditure levels and real
per capita capital stock levels
policy switch which.if set at 1.detennines
state expenditure growth based upon a specified
expenditure level per i~ct individual (for
use in impact analysis)
policy switch used with EXRL4 with value of one
if enclave construction employment not counted
in impact population
policy switch which.if set at 1.detennines
state expenditure growth based upon
constitutionally imposed spending limit
policy switch which.if set at 1.detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
annual change in level of general fund balance
policy switch Which.if set at 1,detennines
state operating expenditures growth based upon
saving a specified amount of revenues
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
EXRLOPS
!"'I""
:I
"I
EXRP84
"I'"EXSAVS
II
II
I
EXSAVX
EXSPCAP
policy switch which.if set at 1.detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
spending an annuity (EXANSAV)
annual cost for replacement of capital stock
put in place after 1983;million $
if EXRLOP7 is invoked in detennination of state
operating expenditures,this is the amount of
revenues not spent;million $
if EXRLOP7 is;invoked in detennination of
state operating expenditures,this is the
exogenous amount of revenues not spent;
mill ion $
special state capital appropriations;million $
F-17
Variable
EXSPLIT
EXSPLITX
EXSSS
EXSSS4
EX SUBS
EXSUBSl
EXTRNS
EXTRS
EXTRS4
EXUA
FAGI
FAGII
FERTj
G.BAL99
G.BAl9PC
Definition;Units
the allocation to operations when state
spending falls below the authorized spending
1imH;percent
the target allocation to operations when state
spending falls below the authorized spending
1imH;percent
state social services operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
state social services operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATI01;
mi 11 ion $
state subsidy programs initiated after 1980;
mill ion $
inHial values for state SUbsidy programs
initiated after 1980;million $
state Permanent Fund dividend distribution;
million $
state transportation operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
state transportation operating expenditures
net of debt service before app1 kation of RATI01;
million $
University of Alaska operating budget;million $
federal adjusted gross income earned in Alaska;
mi 11 ion $
federal adjusted gross income reported on federal
tax returns filed from Alaska;million $
non-Native fertility rate for female cohort j
annual growth in total state fund balance
annual growth in per capita value of combined
state funds
F-18
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive BUdget
Constructed from IRS,Statistics
of Income and ADL Statistical
Quarterly
IRS Statistics of Income
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services and Alaska
Native Hedica1 center
-
-
-
!'j
i
,I
.....
, I
I
i"i"'
i
I
L I
T
i'l
Variable
G.El99
G.EM99
G.EX99S
G.PDRPI
G.POP
G.PR.DPI
G.PR.PI
G.R.WR98
G.RNSPC
G.RSEN
G.SRPC
G.XONRPC
GOBONDl
GOOT
GOOTX
GR
GRDIRPU
GREXCAP
GREXOPS
Definition;Units
annual growth in local goverrment expenditures
annual growth in total employment
annual growth in state goverrment expenditures
annual growth in Alaskan relative price index
annual growth in popUlation
annual growth in real disposable personal incane
per capita
annual growth in real per capita personal incane
annua 1 growth in the average annual real wage
annual growth in endogenous state revenues per capita
annual growth in endogenous state revenues
annual growth in real state expenditures per capita
annua 1 growth in real per capi ta state expendi tures
net of local transfers (EXONTR)
general obligation bonded indebtedness of local
goverrment;million $
general obligation bonded indebtedness of state;
million $
general obligation bonded indebtedness of the state
fran debt incurred before 1983;mi 11 ion $
gross business receipts;million $
annua 1 growth rate of U.S.rea 1 di sposab 1e personal
incane per capita;percent
nominal growth rate of state capital.expenditures
using EXRl2
nominal growth rate of state operating expenditures
using EXRl2
F-19
Institute of Social and
Econani c Research .
KAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR.Alaska Taxable
ADA.Annual Financial Report
ADA.Annual Financial Report
ADA.Annual Financial Report
Variable
GRRPCEX
GRRWEUS
GRSSCP
GRUSCPI
GTR
Gj
Definition;Units
growth rate of real per capita state expenditures
using EXRl3
annual real growth rate of U.S.average weekly
earnings;percent
growth rate of state real per capita state capital
stock using EXRl3
annual growth rate of U.S.consumer price index;
percent
gross taxable receipts;million $
shift factor for aging of cohorts
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Constructed fran ADA.Annual
Financial Report and ADR
unpublished data
-
HH
HH24
HH25.29
HH30.54
HH55
HHC
HHI1
HHN
HHRij
HHSIZE
HHSIZEC
HHSIZEN
HHij
total Alaska households;thousand
househo 1ds:head under age of 25;thousand
households:head between ages of 25 and
29;thousand
households:head between ages of 30 and
54;thousand
househo 1ds:head over 54;thousand
total Alaska civilian non-Native households;
thousand
total Alaska military households;thousand
total Alaska civilian Native households;
thousand
household fonmation rate for civilian non-Native
population in cohort ij
average Alaska household size.all households
average Alaska civilian non-Native household size
average Alaska Native household size
total Alaska households headed by persons in
cohort i j;thousand
F-20
BOC.Census of Population -
BOC.Census of Population
BOC,Census of Population -
BOC.Census of Population -
BOC.Census of Population ~
BOC.Census of Population
.....
BOC.Census of Population
BOC.Census of Population
BOC,1980 Census of Population.-Census Tape STF2
'"""
BOC.Census of Population
Variable
IM.BAl
IM.BAl99
I"'l"
IM.BAlPC
IM.BAlR
IM.BALRV
IM.BLRPC
r"""
IM.REV
LPTB
LPTBFV
LPTBP9
Definitionj Units
the summation over time of the annual increments
to IM.REV;million $
the sun of the general fund.'Permanent Fund.and
IMBAL;mi 11 ion $
"ilfPact balance"per capita;$
real "ill1Jact balance";million 1967 U.S.$
annual revenues contributed to IMBAL.including
interest;million $
real per capita "ill1Jact balance";1961 U.S.$
the difference between actual state expenditures
in an ilfPact analysis case and what they would
have been if expenditures in real per capi ta tenns
had been kept equivalent to the base case;mi 11 ion $
ratio of Alaskan to U.S.per capita real disposable
personal incane
ratio of trade/service/finance employment to Alaska
real disposable personal incane
ratio of transportation/communications/utilities
employment to Alaska real disposable personal incane
ratio of Alaskan to U.S.real average wage
labor force;thousand
labor force participation rate as a percent
of potential labor force (civilian population
15 through 64);percent
total value of real property falling within local
government jurisdiction;million $
total assessed value of real,personal,and
petroleun property falling within local government
jurisdiction;million $
taxable petroleum property falling within local
government jurisdiction;million $
F-21
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Hi stori cal Data Sourcea
AOCR.Alaska Taxable
Variable
LPTBl
LPTB1FV
LPTRAT
MOPij
MOTOT
l1HHij
MIGIN
HIGOOT
MILPCT
HILRAT
MIL ij
Hij
Definition;Units
assessed value of real and personal property
(A.S.29.53)(not full value);million $
assessed value of real and personal property
assessed at full value;million $
percentage of pipeline property within local
jurisdictions actually subject to local tax
because of limitations imposed by state statutes;
percent
mi 1i tary dependents in cohort i j;thousand
total military dependents in 1980;thousand
military households headed by individual in
cohort ij;thousand
endogenous civilian migration to Alaska;
thousand
exogenous civilian migration to Alaska;
thousand
Alaska military popUlation as a fraction of
1980 level
the ratio of military employment (EHGH)to
military popUlation (POPM)
armed forces personnel and mi 1i tary dependents
in cohort ij in 1980;thousand
fraction of total endogenous civilian (non-Native)
migration assigned to cohort ij
'"'"
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation '"'"
Hay 1983
Historical Data Source a
ADCR,Alaska Taxable
ADCR,Alaska Taxable
Constructed from ADCR,
Alaska Taxable
BOC,1980 census of PopUlation
BOC.1980 census of PopUlation.
BOC,1980 census of PopUlation
BOC,1980 census of Population
Alaska Public Survey
HAPik Native popUlation in aggregated cohorts k (for
use with income distribution model);thousand
HAHNe
NATPij
HATTOT
NBTHTOT
Alaska civilian non-Native (SIC)natural increase
Alaska Native popUlation in cohort ij;thousand
total Alaska Native popUlation (civilian);thousand
total Alaska Native births;thousand
F-22
BOC,1980 census of PopUlation
BOC,1980 census of Population
Var1able
NCBP
NCBR
NCCAP
,I"'f'NCCI
NCDR
NCEXP
P""
NCPI
NCRP
~
News
NC1j
!""'"NDTHINF
NDTHTOT
NEl4abN
NFERTj
NHHRlj
NHHlj
NMij
NNATINC
Def1nition;Units
bonus income to Natives from lease sales on
Native lands;million $
Alaska crude Nat1ve birth rate (per thousand)
accumulated capital of Native Corporat1ons;
m1ll1on $
Native Corporation income from ANeSA-related
activit1es;million $
Alaska crude Native death rate
current expenditures of Native Corporations;
million $
Native personal 1ncome from ANCSA-related
activit1es;mill10n $
Native recurrent income from petroleum development
on Native lands;million $
wages and salaries paid by Native Corporations;
million $
Alaska Native population in cohort ij before
m1 grat ion;thousand
Alaska Nat1ve infant deaths;thousand
total Alaska Nat1ve deaths;thousand
Native employment in sector ab;thousand
Native fertility in female cohort j
household fonmation rate for civilian Native
popUlation in cohort ij;percent
Alaska households headed by civilian Native
persons 1n cohort ij;thousand
migration rate (positive for in;negative for out)
for Native popUlation in cohort ij;percent
Alaska Native natural increase;thousand
F-23
Inst1tute of Social and
Econom1C Research
MAP Documentat1on
l4ay 1983
H1storical Data Sourcea
BOC,census of PopUlation
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services and Alaska
Native Medical center
BOC,census of PopUlation,
census Tape STF2
BOC,census of PopUlation,
census Tape STF2
NNPik non-Native population in aggregated cohorts k
for use with incane distribution JOOdel;
thousand
Variable
NONPEl
NONRP9S
NPGQij
NRCij
NSEXOIV
NSURINFi
NSij
NIP
NWSabN
OEHij
P.BAL99
P.BALGF
P.BALPF
P.DPINN
P.OPINNl
P.EL99
Definition;Units
general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net
of petroleum revenues and fund earnings -
"non-endownen t..revenues;mi 11 ion $
general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net
of pet ro 1eum revenues;mi 11 ion $
fraction of civilian Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters
targeted total change in Native household formation
rate for cohort ij
Native sex division at birth
Native infant survival rates
Native survival rate for cohort ij
period over which Native household formation
rates trend;years
Native wages and salaries in sector abo million $
exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate
(positive for in;negative for out)for
population in cohort ij
combined fund balance per capita;$
general fund balance per capita;$
Permanent Fund balance per capita;$
non-Native disposable personal incane per capita;$
Native disposable personal incane (SIC)per capita
net of nontaxable ANCSA pa)'l'llent;$
per capita El99;$
F-24
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC.1980 census of Population
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Anchorage Urban Observatory
and BOC,1980 census of
PopUlation
-
-
-
-
~I
-
-I
I
I
I
Variable
P.ELED
~
P.ElNEDl
P.EX99S
P.EXBH
P.EXCAP
""'"P.EXONTR
P.EXOPS
P.GEXP
P.GODT
Definition;Units
per capita ELED;$
per capita ELNED1;$
~r capita EX99S;$
per capita unrestricted general fund expenditures
(EXGFBH);$
per capita state capital expenditures;$
per capita state operating expenditures
net of local government transfers;$
per capita state operating expenditures;$
per capita state plus local government
expenditures;$
per capita state government bonded indebtedness;$
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP DocLm:!ntation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
~
.i
P.NPET
P.NRP9S
P.PI
P.PIN
P.PINCL
P.PINN
P.R99S
P.RLT99
P.RSEN
P.RSIN
P.RSIP
P.RT99
P.RTIS
per capi ta state "non-endownent"revenues;$
per capita state nonpetrolelJYl revenues;$
per capita personal income;$
per capita Native personal income;$
per capita Native claims personal income;$
per capita non-Native personal income;$
per capita state general plus Penmanent Fund
revenues;$
per capita state-local revenue transfers;$
per capi ta state endogenous revenues;$
per capita general and Penmanent Fund earnings;$
per capita interest on the Penmanent Fund;$
per capita total state taxes;$
per capita state personal income tax revenues;$
F-25
~
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation """"May 1983
Variable Definition;Units Historical Data Sourcea ""'1
Pl-P6 variables to facilitate printing population
distribution model results;""""
P9PTPER percentage of petrolellll property which is ADCR,Alaska Taxable
taxable by state which falls within local
taxing jurisdiction;percentage
PAD 1 proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attending
district schools;percent ~
PAD2 proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attendi-ng
REAA schools;percent -
PADJ ratio of premillll (~I19P)to average wage
(~I19l)in manufacturi ng sector -,
PARlVFV ratio of local estimate to full value of local
property according to state appraiser;percent -,
PARNONGF proportion of University of Alaska revenues not
from the general fund;percent
"""PBlTBl proportion of gross business receipts taxable
after 1978 tax law change;percent
PBTRATE state business license tax rate per business;ADR.Revenues Sources
million dollars per business
PC12N proportion of ANCSA payments made to 12 regional Robert Nathan Associates,..,
Native corporations in Alaska;percent 2(c)Report:Federal Programs
and Alaska Natives
""""PC12RN proportion of members of 12 regional Native Robert Nathan Associates.
corporations residing in Alaska;percent 2(c)Report:Federal Programs
and Alaska Natives
PC13C exogenous adjustment to force consistency DOL.Statistical quarterly.
between local goverrvnent personnel expendi-Alaska Economic Trends.and
tures and wages and salaries BOC,Goverrvnental Finances
PC39A miscellaneous employment within agriculture-DOL,Statistical Quarterly
forestry-fisheries industrial category;thousand -
PC39B forestry employment within agriculture-forestry-DOL.Statistical Quarterly
fisheries as proportion of manUfacturing employment -
..,
F-26
-
-
Variable
PCINDA
PCIVPY
PCNCl
Definition;Units
proportion of gap between average industry
employment share and Native industry employment
share that is closed within one time period
ratio of military to federal civilian wage rate;
percent
proportion of AHCSA payments paid directly to
individuals;percent
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
~y 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
PCNC2 proportion of recurring incone fran petrolellR
development on Native lands paid directly to
individuals;percent
PCNC3 proportion of earnings on Native
Corporation acctJllJlated capital paid
directly to individuals;percent
PCNC4
PCNCSV
PCNCSVl
PCNCWS
PCOLART
PCWSl
PCYNAl
PDCON
proportion of bonus incone fran lease sales on
Native lands paid directly to individuals;percent
proportion of Native Corpor~tion incone used for
investment;percent
proportion of bonus incone fran lease sales on
Native lands and retained by Native Corporations
whi ch is used for investment;percent
proportlon of current expenditures of Native
Corporations paid in wages and salaries;percent
the cost of living differential for federal
employees;percentage
ratio of state government wage and salary payments
to personnel expenditures;percent
proportion by which the ratio of personal incone to
wages and salaries for Native exceeds that of the
total population;percent
state government construction price deflator;index
F-27
ADL,Statistical quarterly
and ADA,Executive Budget
for construction methodology,see
Kresge and Thomas "Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,No.1
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
Hay 1983
Variable
PDEXOPS
PDRATIO
PDRPI
PDRPIBAS
POUSCPI
POUSCPI1
Definition;Units
state government operating expenditures price
deflator;index
ratio of Alaskan relative price index to U.S.
conslll'ler pri ce index
Alaskan relative price index-1967 value is
1.425 times U.S.CPI which in 1967 was 100;
index
1982 Alaskan price level using 1967 US as
base;index
U.S.consumer price index (1967=100);index
initial value for US conslll'ler price index;index
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADl,Statistical
Quarterly,BEA personal incane
and emp1o~nt data
constructed from U.S.Department
of labor,Bureau of labor
Statistics and University of
Alaska,Agriculture Extension
Service,Quarterly Food Price
Survey of 13 Alaskan cities
U.S.Department of labor,Bureau
of labor Statistics
-
-
~I
PECIG proportion of cigarette tax receipts paid to
special fund
PERNA 1
PERNA2
PERNA3
PESLT
PESlTC
PF
PFISH1
PFN
proportion of change in state employment rate
reflected in change in Native emp1o~nt rate;percent
proportion of gap between Native and state
emp1o~nt rates that is closed in one year;perce~t
percentage of Native Corporation jobs held by Natives
proportion of "other"state taxes shared with local
government;percent
proportion of state corporate income tax shared with
local government;percent
non-Native females 14 and under;thousand
percentage"of fish harvesting emp1o~nt
reported as proprietors
Native females 14 and under;thousand
F-28
DOL,Statistical Quarterly;
BEA emp1o~nt data;and
G.Rogers,Measuring the
Socioeconomic Impact of
Alaska's Fisheries
-
-
Variable
PI
PLOPI
PLEl99
PLEX99S
PLEXl
PI.EXS
PI.EXT
PI.GOOT
PLRl99
PLRlPT
PLRSEN
PI.TXl
PI.TXS
PLWS98
PI3
PIS
PIDIR
Definition;Units
persona 1 i ncane;mi 11 ion $
ratio of disposable personal income to total
personal income
ratio of local government expenditures to
personal income
ratio of total state government expenditures
to personal income
ratio of local government expendi tures net of
debt service to personal incanie
ratio of state government general fund expenditures
(EXGF)to personal income
ratio of state and local government expenditures
to personal income
ratio of state general 001 igation bonded debt
to personal income
ratio of local government revenues to personal
income
ratio of local property taxes to personal
income
ratio of endogenous state revenues to personal income
ratio of locally generated local government taxes
to personal income
ratio of state taxes net of petrolelJll-related taxes
to personal income
ratio of wage and salary plus mi 1i tary
salary incane to personal income
personal income net of "enclave"construction
~loyee personal income;million $
personal income plus residence adjustment;
million $
dividends,interest,and rent component of
incane;million $
F-29
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
l1ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BEA personal income data
BEA personal income
Variable
PIOIST
PIL
PIN
PINl
PINN
PIOLl
PIPADJ
PIPE
PIPRO
PIPROl
PI PROF
PIRADJ
PISSC
PITRAN
PITRANl
PIU.PIA
Definition;Units
roodel switch wMch results in retrieval of Native
~loyment and wages and salaries fran incane
distribution IOOdel if a value of one is chosen;
units
the value of personal incane lagged one year
for use in incane distribution rrodel
Native personal incane.including Native claims
incane to individuals;million $
Native personal incane net of Native claims
incane to individuals.million $
non-Na ti ve persona 1 i ncane;mi 11 ion $
other 1abor i ncane c~nt of personal i ncane;
million $
ratio of "enclave"to regular construction wage
rate;percent
a proxy variable which takes a value of one
in years of very substantial exogenous
construction activity
proprietors incane ccrrponent of personal incane;
mi 11 ion $
nonfishery proprietor incane c~nt of personal
incane;million $
fishery proprietor incane ccrrponent of personal
incane;million $
residence adjustment canponent of personal incane;
mi 11 ion $
personal contributions to Social Security ccrrponent
of personal incane;million $
transfers ccrrponent of personal incane;million $
transfers (exclUding Permanent Fund dividend
payments)canponent of personal incane;million $
ratio of non-Native disposable personal incane per
capita in Alaska to disposable personal incane per
capita in the u.s.
F-30
Institute of Social and
Econanic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BEA,personal incane data
ADl Statistical Quarterly
BEA,personal income data
BEA.personal incane data
BEA.personal income data
BEA.personal incane data
SEA,personal i ncane data
BEA.personal income data
-
-
-
Institute of Social and
Economic Research-MAP Documentation
i May 1983
,~
Variable Definition;Units Historical Data Sourcea
PlFD9 total Alaska potential civilian labor force
f1'aged 15 to 64;thousand
PlFDOI1C Alaska potential civilian non-Native.non-
mi 1itary dependent labor force (population
aged 15 to 64);thousand
PlFOOf1H Alaska potential mil itary labor force (military
dependents aged 15 to 64;active-duty mil i tary
are excluded);thousand
PlFOOHN Alaska potential civilian Native labor force
aged 15 to 64;thousand
~PH non-Native males 14 and under used with
income distribution model;thousand
Pl1N Native males 14 and under used with
!ncome distribution model;thousand
PNTGR amount of gross receipts exempt from state
gross receipts tax;million $
POP total population;thousand BOC and ADl-POP.AD ratio of Alaska population aged 15 to 64 to
total population
POP.CIV ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population
to total population
POP.GER ratio of Alaska popUlation aged 65 and over to
total popUlation
POP.KID ratio of Alaska popUlation under 15 to total
population
POP.I1Il ratio of Alaska military and military dependents
to total popUlation
POP.NAT ratio of Alaska Native population to total
population
POPADS total Alaska popUlation aged 15 to 64;thousand
pope total popUlation net of anne<!forces personnel BOC and ADl
(includes military dependents);thousand
F-3l
Variable
POPCGQ
POPGER
POPGQ
POPKIOS
POPH
POPMGQ
POPHIG
Definition:Units
Alaska civilian non-Native population in group
quarters;thousand
total Alaska population aged 65 and over;thousand
total Alaska population in group quarters;thousand
total Alaska population under 15:thousand
anmed forces personnel;thousand
military population in group quarters;thousand
total net civilian migration to Alaska;thousand
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
~y 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC,census of PopUlation
SOC,census of PopUlation
SOC,census of PopUlation
SOC,census of PopUlation
BOC.census of PopUlation
SOC,census of PopUlation
POPNE
POPNGQ .
POPNI9
POPSKUl
Native population based upon Native Corporation
enrollment records;thousand
Alaska Native population in group quarters:thousand
total Alaska civilian natural increase;thousand
total Alaska population aged 5 to 19;thousand
lec)Report-Federal Program &
Alaska Natives by Robert Nathan
Associates,for U.S.Department
of Interior
BOC,census of PopUlation
BOC,census of PopUlation
-
POPij total Alaska population in cohort ij;thousand
PPVAl
PR.BAl99
PR.BAlep
PR.BAlGl
PR.BAlG2
PR.BAlP2
PR.BAlPF
total full assessed value of real,personal,
and petro1~re1ated property in the state;
million $
general plus Pennanent Fund balance real per
capita;1967 $
value of state capital stock real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
general fund balance real per capita;1967 U.S.$
general fund balance real per capita deflated by
state operating budget deflator;1967 U.S.$
Pennanen t Fund ba 1ance rea 1 per cap i ta def1 a ted
by operating budget deflator;1967 U.S.$
Permanent Fund balance real per capita:1967 U.S.$
,F-32
-
,-
PR.ECPN
PR.EL99
PR.ELED
I"'",PR.ELEDC
PR.ELNED
PR.EX99S
PR.EXBM1'1'",,
1'1
'I
PR.EXCAP
PR.EXONT
PR.EXOPS
~
I
Ii
I,!
Definition;Units
dispoable personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
Native disposable personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
non-Natlve disposable income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
initial value for US real per capita disposable
persona 1 i ncane;$
U.S.disposable personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state capital expenditures for highways
from bond funds real per capita (EXCPSHY);
1967 U.S.$
state capital expenditures nonhighway from bond
funds real per capita (EXCPSNH)j 1967 U.S.$
total local expenditures (EL99)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
local expenditures for education (ELED)real
per capita;1967 U.S.$
local government capital expenditures for
education (ELEDCP)real per capita;1967 U.S.$
local non-education expenditures (ELNED1)real
per capita;1967 U.S.$
total state expenditures (EX99S)real per capitaj
1967 U.S.$
state general fund expenditures (EXBM)real per
capita;1967 U.S.$
state capital expenditures real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state operating expenditures net of local government
transfers real per capita;1967 u.s.$
state operating expenditures real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
F-33
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Docl.lflentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
U.S.Department of Commerce
PR.EXccc
PR.GEXP
PR.GFC
PR.GFCN
PR.GODT
PR.NCEXP
PR.NPET
PR.NRP9
PR.PI
PR.PI3
PR.PIN
PR.PINCl
PR.PINN
PR.R99S
PR.RlT99
PR.RSEN
Definition;Units
state expendi tures in program category ccc
real per capita;1967 $
state and local govermlent expenditures real
per capita;1967 U.S.$
state general fund highway capital expenditures
(EXGFCHY)real per capita;1967 U.S.$
state general fund nonhighway capital expenditures
(EXGFCNH)real per capita;1967 U.S.$
state goverrvnent bonded indebtedness real per
capita;1967 U.S.$
real current expenditures of Native Corporations
per Native;1967 U.S.$
state "non-endcwnent"revenues real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state nonpetroleum revenues real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
personal income real per capita;1967 U.S.$
personal income net of "enclave"construction
errployee personal income (PI3)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
Native personal income real per capita;1967 U.S.$
Native personal income real per capita plus real
current expenditures of Native Corporations per
capita;1967 U.S.$
non-Native personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
total state revenues (R99S)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state-local revenue transfers real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state endogenous revenues (RSEN)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
F-34
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
-
-
-
,~
-
Variable
PR.RSIN
PR.RSIP
""'"
PR.RT99
PR.RTIS
PRINT
PRINT2
PTBP9
PTOORB
PTOORD
PTOURE
PTOURS
I"f"
PTOURT
PTRTS
MBASE-R.BAlCAP
)1
:1
\i ..
R.DPI
R.DPIBN
Definition;Units
general and Pennanent Fund earnings real per
capita;1967 U.S.$
Pennanent Fund earnings real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state tax revenues (RT99)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state personal income tax receipts real per
capita;1967 U.S.$
variable from income distribution model which allows
results to be printed if value of one is chosen
variable from income distribution model which allows
results to be printed if value of one is chosen
total value of taxable petroleum property;
million $
intercept term on tourist industry
employment equation
proportion of tourist industry employment
in trade
elasticity of tourism employment to growth
in number of tourists
proportion of tourist industry employment
in services
proportion of tourist industry employment in
transportation
tax rate on state petroleum-related property;
percent
average U.S.wages paid in government in 1967;$
real value of state capital stock;million
1967 U.S.$
real disposable personal income;million 1967 U.S.$
real disposable personal income plus residence
adjustment;million 1967 U.S.$
F-35
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR,Alaska Taxable
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Dmprovements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
constructed using ADA,Annual
Fi nand a1 Report
R.PIN Native real personal income;million 1967 u.s.$
Variable
R.DPIax
R.PI
R.PINN
R.~9a
R99S
R99SNT
R99SON
RATl
RATIO 1
RCij
RL99
RL99.PT
RL99.RT
RL991
Definition;Units
real disposable personal income plus residence
adjustment of "enclave"construction eq>loyees;
million 1967 U.s.$
real personal income;million 1967 U.s.$
non-Native real personal income;million 1967 U.s.$
average annual real wage rate for civilian eq>loyment;
1967 U.s.$
average annual real wage rate including military;
1967 U.s.$
tota1 genera 1 fund and Pennanent Fund revenues;
million $
total state revenues net of Pennanent Fund
contributions (EXPFCON);million $
total state revenues net of federal grants-in-aid;
million $
ratio of non-Native income to total taxable income;
percent
variable used to make individual state budget items
consistent with total operating budget constraint;
percent
targeted total change in elvi Han household
fonnation rate for cohort ij
tota1 1oca 1 gover.nment revenues;mi 11 ion $
ratio of local property taxes to total local
government revenues
ratio of state-local transfers to state-local
government revenues
total local government revenues net of miscellaneous
revenues;million $
F-36
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed using ADL,
Statistical quarterly
ADA,Annual Financial Report
constructed from BOC Govern-
mental Finances and BOC State
Government Finances
""'"
-
-,
-
-
-
-
Variable
RLMC
RLOT
RlPT
""'"i RLPTl
!
RLPTX
RLT99
RLTCS
RLTCS4
,.
i!
RLTE99
RLTE994
rr
RLTEA-e
RLTEA4
RLTEB
RLTEB4
RLTEC
r
Definition;Units
local charges and miscellaneous revenue;
million $
local government taxes net of property tax;
mill ion $
local property taxes;million $
local property tax revenues net of exogenous
component;million $
exogenous local property tax;million $
total revenue transfers framstate to local
government;million $
state-local shared corporate income tax after
1978 tax law change;million $
initial estimate of state-local shared corporate
i ncane tax before app 1i ca ti on of RA TIOl ;
million $
total state-local government transfers for
education purposes;million $
initial estimate of transfers fram state to local
government for education purposes before application
of RATI01;million $
total transfers fram state to local government for
primary and secondary education;million $
initial estimate of transfers from state to local
government for primary and secondary education before
application of RATI01;mi n ion $
state aid to local education net of aid to district
schools and since their inception.the REAA schools;
mi 11 ion $
initial estimate of state aid to local government
for education net of district and REAA aid before
application of RATIOl
cigarette tax education transfers fram state to
local government;million $
F-37
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
SOC.Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
BOC.Governmental Finances
SOC.Governmental Finances
ADA.Annual Financial Report
constructed fram SOC.State
Governmental Finances and ADA
Annual Financial Report
ADA.Annual Financial Report
Variable
RLTEC4
RLTEF
RLTEF4
RLTEO
RLTE04
.RLTET
RLTET4
RLTF
RLTFPX
RlTI1A
RlTI1A4
RLTHS
RLTOT
RLTOT4
RlTRS
Definition;Units
initial estimate of cigarette tax education
transfers from state to local government before
application of RATI01;million $
school foundation program transfers from state to
local government;million $
initial estimate of school foundation program
transfers from state to local government before
application of RATI01;million $
miscellaneous state aids to district schools;
mi 11 ion $
initial estimate of miscellaneous state aids
to district schools before application of RATI01;
mill ion $
state aid to local district schools for
transportation;million $
initial estimate of state aid to district
schools for transportation before application
of RATI01;million $
federal-local government transfers;million $
petroleum-related federal-local government transfers;
mill ion $
state local transfers under municipal assistance
program;mi 11 ion $
initial estimate of state-local transfers under
mUnicipal assistance program;million $
state-local revenue transfers net of education,
revenue sharing,and tax sharing;million $
state-local tax sharing of other taxes (amusement
licenses,aviation fuel tax,liquor licenses,
fisheries tax);million $
initial estimate of state-local sharing of other
taxes before application of RATI01;million $
state-local revenue sharing;million $
F-38
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
I1AP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Source a
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
BOC,Governmental Finances
ADA,Executive Budget
constructed from BOC State
Government Finances &ADA
Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive Budget
-
I'!"'I
i
I
-.
i
-
:r
I!
I
Variable
RLTRS4
RlTT9
RlTT94
RLTVS
RlTVS4
RlTX
RMIS
RMISRES
RN.FED
RN.OIl
RN.RSEN
RN.RSIN
RNAT
Definition;Units
initial estimate of state-local revenue
sharing before application of RATI01;million $,
total state-local tax transfers;million $
initial estimate of total state-local tax
transfers;million $
state-local shared electric and telephone
co-op taxes;million $
initial estimate of state-local shared electric
and telephone co-op taxes before application of
RATI01;million $
exogenous state-local transfers;million $
miscellaneous unrestricted general fund revenues;
mi 11 ion $
miscellaneous restricted general fund
revenues;million $
ratio of federal transfers to general fund
plus Permanent Fund revenues net of Permanent
Fund contributions (EXPFOON)
ratio of state petroleum revenues to general
fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net of
Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFOON)
ra ti 0 of endogenous revenues to general
fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net of
Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFCON)
ratio of general and Permanent Fund earnings to
state general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues
net of Permanent Fund contributions (eXPFOON)
Native personal income as percentage of total
personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADR,Revenue Sources
RNATX Native personal income as percentage of total
personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
ROFAS state auto licenses and fees;million $
F-39
ADA,Annual Financial Report
Variable
ROFERS
ROFOS
ROFTS
ROR
RORANGRO
RORCPDEP
RORCRF
ROROISK
RORNC
RORPOF
RORPPF
RP7S
RP9S
RP9SGF
Definition;Units
general fund ferry receipts;million $
nonauto-re1ated business and nonbusiness licenses
and fees to general fund;million $
total general fund fees and licenses;million $
real rate of return on general fund balance;
percent
under EXRLOPB,rate at which state operating
expenditure annuity grows;percent
real rate of depreciation of state-owned capital;
percent
capital recovery factor for calculating annual
servicing of bonded debt;percent
discount rate app1 ied to future petroleun
revenues to calculate present value in 1982
dollars (OF.RSVP)
nominal rate of return on accumulated capital
of Native Corporations;percent
real rate of return premilm appl ied to development
fund over general fund;percent
real rate of return premilm applied to Permanent
Fund in excess of general fund;percent
total petrolelln royalties and bonuses;mi 11 ion $
total petro1elln revenues before Permanent Fund
deductions;million $
total petroleum revenues paid to general fund;
million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Annual Financial Report
constructed fran ADA,Annual
Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADR Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
-
-
-
-
-
RP9X miscellaneous exogenous petro1el1n revenues;
million $
RPBS
RPBSGF
state petrolelln bonuses before Permanent Fund
deduction;million $
state petro1elln bonuses paid to general fund;
mi 11 ion $
F-40
ADR,Revenue Sources
AOR,Revenue Sources
-
-
Variable
RPPS
RPRY
!"""RPRYGF
RPTS
RS.FED
!"""
RS.CN4
-RS.PET
RS.REC
RS.RN
I"'",RS.RP9S
I"""RS.RSEN
,~RS.RSIN
~RSBM.899
RSBM.EXD
RSBM.GF
RSBM.PET
Definition;Units
state petroleum property tax;million $
state petroleum royalties before Permanent Fund
deduction;million $
state petroleum royalties paid to general fund;
mi 11 ion $
state petroleum production taxes;mi 11 ion $
ratio of federal transfers to total state
revenues
ratio of revenues net of federal transfers to
total state revenues
ratio of "endowle~t..type revenues to total
state revenues
ratio of endogenous and interest revenues to
total state ~evenues
ratio of state general fund revenues net of
permanent fund contributions (EXPFCON)to total
state revenues
ratio of petroleum revenues to total state
revenues
ratio of endogenous revenues to total state
revenues
ratio of general and Permanent Fund earnings
to total state revenues
ratio of fund earnings (RSIG+RSIO+RSIPGF)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
rat io of debt service expendi tures (EXOSS)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of general fund earnings (RSIG)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of endowment revenues (RP9SGF+RSIG+RSIO+RSIPGF)
to unrestricted general fund revenues
F-4l
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADR.Revenue Sources
ADA.Revenue Sources
ADR.Revenue Sources
ADR.Revenue Sources
Variable
RSBM.PF
RSBH.REN
RSBH.RP9
RSEN
RSENGF
RSFDN
RSFONPX
RSFDNPXG
RSFONX
RSFFS
RSFS
RSFSl
RSGF
RSGFBM
RSGFGAP
RSGFRS
RSIAS
Definition:Units
ratio of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to
general fund (RSIPGf)to unrestrict~general
fund revenues
ratio of endogenous general fund revenues (RSENGF)
to unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of petrolelJJl revenues (RP9SGF)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
state endogenous revenues;mi 11 ion $
endogenous state unrestricted general fund
revenues;million $
total federal grants-in-aid to state general
fund;mill ion $
federal-state shared petroleIJJI royalties;
million $
general fund portion of federal-state shared
petroleum royalties;mi 11 ion $
exogenous federal-state transfer payments;
million $
fees and licenses receipts paid into the fish
and game special revenue fund;million $
total revenues of the special funds except the
Permanent Fund;million $
miscellaneous receipts of state special revenue
funds;million $
total state general fund revenues (unrestricted
and restricted);million $
total general fund unrestricted revenues;million $
the difference between the statutory spending
limit and available funds;million $
restricted state general fund revenues;million $
international airport receipts (enterprise fund);
mi 11 ion $
F-42
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
-
-
r
-
-
Variable
RSIO
RSIONET
RSIG
RSIGNET
RSIN
RSINNET
RSIP
RSIPGF
RSIPNET
RT99
RTAS
RTBS
RTBSl
RTBS2
RTCIS
RTCS
RTCSl
.Definition;Units
state development fund earnings;million $
state development fund earnings net of inflation;
million $
state general fund interest;million $
state general fund interest net of inflation;
mill ion $
state general fund interest plus Permanent Fund
interest;million $
state general fund interest plus Permanent Fund
interest net of inflation;million $
state Permanent Fund interest;mi 11 ion $
state Permanent Fund interest transferred into
general fund;million $
state Permanent Fund interest net of inflation;
mill ion $
total state tax revenues;million $
alcoholic beverage tax;million $
gross receipts tax and business license tax;
million $
portion of gross receipts tax revenues derived fran
business licenses;million $
portio~of gross receipts tax revenues derived fran
gross receipts in excess of exempted amount per
business;million $
cigarette tax receipts (sum of general fund and
tobacco fund receipts);million $
state corporate tax receipts;million $
corporate incane tax net of petroleum sector;
million $
F-43
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOR,Revenue Sources
AOR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
and ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
constructed fran AOR unpublished
data .
constructed from ADA,Annual
Financial Report and AOl.
unpublished data
ADA.Annual Financial Report
and AOR.Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
and AOR.Revenue Sources
RTCSX exogenous corpora te i ncane tax;mi 11 i on $
Variable
RTCSPX
RTIS
RTISC
RTISCA
RTISCAl
RTISCA2
RTISCP
RTISlOS
RTISXX
Definition;Units
state corporate tax receipts fram petroleum sector;
mi llion $
personal incane tax;million $
personal incane tax on a calendar year basis;
million $
persona 1 i ncane tax 1i abi 1i ty per taxpayer
on a calendar year basis;thousand $
initial estimate of personal incane tax liability
per taxpayer on a calendar year bas is;.thousand $
initial estimate of personal incane tax liability
per taxpayer on a calendar year basis without tax
structure changes introduced by modeler;thousand $
calendar-year state incane taxes paid out of
Alaskan resident personal incane;million $
difference per taxpayer between personal incane
tax liability before and after structural changes
introduced by modeler;million $
adjusbnent of disposable incane to cover lag in
refund in state personal incane taxes after
repeal;million $
-
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
!'tAp Documentation _
f'ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOR.Revenue Sources -
-ADA.Annual Financial Report
AOR.ClJTlJlative Sunman of
Revenue.a monthly report
AOR.unpublished data
RTIW
RTOTS
RTPIF
RTSS
RTVS
highway.aviation,and marine fuel taxes;
million $
other state taxes--consists of fiduciary.
inheritance.estate.mining.conservation,
prepaid.and fish taxes;million.$
federal incane taxes paid out of Alaskan
resident personal incane;million $
school tax;million $
ad valorem taxes consisting of insurance premium
tax and electric telephone company revenue tax;
mi 11 ion $
F-44
ADA.Annual Financial Report
and ADR.Revenue Sources
AOR.Revenue Sources
SEA -di sposab 1e personal
incane data
ADA.Annual Financial Report
ADA.Annual Financial Report
and AOR.Revenue Sources
-
r
-
Variable
SANCSA
SEXDIV
SLGEXP
SURINFi
Sij
Definition;Units
payments to Alaska Natives by state government
under ANCSA;mi 11 ion $
non-Native sex division at birth;percent
total combined state and local government
expenditures;million $
non-Native infant survival rates;percent
non-Native survival rate for cohort ij
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
TCRED individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/11;$
,'_...
,....
!
THG
TOURIST
TP
TPTV
TXBASE
TXCRPC
TXPTXX
TXRT
U.AK.US
UNEI1P
total gallons of highway gasoline sold in the
state (does not include off-highway gallon sales);
mi 11 ion gallons
number of tourist visitors to Alaska;thousands
period over Which civilian household formation
rates trend;years
total highway motor vehicles operating in the state
(passenger and truck);thousand
change in the floor of personal incane tax rate
schedule;units
state personal incane tax credit adjustment
(percentage of tax liability);
adjustment to withold from state expenditures
a portion of any personal incane tax reduction;
percent
percentage change in state,personal incane tax rate;
percentage
ratio of unemployment rates in Alaska and the u.S.
average
average annual Alaska unemployment;thousand
F-45
ADR,monthly motor vehicle
tax forms
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Department of Public Safety,
Motor Vehicle Division
ADL
Variable
WS
VAEX
VAEXl
WEALTH
WEUS
WEUSl
\lR.AK.US
Definition;Units
US un~lo)ment rate;percent
value of a personal ex~tion on personal
i ncane tax;$
initial value for personal ex~tion;$
four-year average of real per capita incane;
1967 U.S.$
average weekly wage &salary earnings in U.S.;$
initial value for average weekly wage and salary
earnings in United States;$
ratio of Alaska to U.S.civilian wage rate
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
U.S.Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
IRS,Statistics of Incane
U.S.Department of Labor,
Bureau of labor Statistics
-
-
-
-
hR97 average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage
and salary ~loyment;$
Wl98 average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage
and salary employment plus military;$
\lRCNNP
WlCNP
~GC
w:«2ab
\oR19l
\lRM9P
average annual wage rate for non-"enclave U
construction wage rate;$
average annual wage rate for premiln wage (pipeline
or "enclave")construction;$
average annual wage rate for canDJnications and
public utilities;$
average annual wage rate for federal civilian;$
annual growtn in income per proprietor (input
to income distribution IOOdel)
annual growth in real annual wage rate in
industry ab (input to incane distribution IOOdel)
average annual wage rate for existing (low wage)
manUfacturing ~lo)ment;$
average annual wage rate for large-project
(high wage)manufacturing ~loyment;$
F-46
AOL,Statistical quarterlY
AOL,Statistical Quarterly
ADL,Statistical quarterly
ACl,Statistical Quarterly
ADl.Statistical Quarterly
-
Variable
~SB
~SNB
WS97
WS98
Definition;Units
average annual wage rate for business services;$
average annual wage rate for nonbusiness services;$
average annual wage rate for industry sector abo $
total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural
wage and salary industries;million $
total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural
wage and salary industries plus military;million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADL~Statistical quarterly
ADL.Statistical quarterly
ADL.Statistical quarterly
-
WS98L wages and salaries lagged one year (input to income
distribution model);million $
WSGL local government wages and salaries;million $
WSGC federal civilian wages and salaries;million $
WSGH military personnel wages and salaries;million $
i
j
i:
r
t:
rI
I
WSCNP
WSGS
WSGSFY
WSH9P
WSNA
WSS91
WSab
Xl-X6
XX98
wages and salary payments in high wage ("enclave")
construction;million $
state government wages and salaries;million $
state government wages and salaries on fiscal year
basis;million $
wages and salaries paid in high wage exogenous
large-project manUfacturing;million $
wages and salaries paid to Natives;million $
wages and salaries in services net of Native
Corporation-related wages;million $
wages and salaries paid in industry ab;ab::CN GA
A9 Cf1 DR mI D9 FI GF 119 PU P9 S9 19;million $
variables used to facilitate printing of output
of the income distribution model
total real gross state product in wage and salary
industries and military;million 1972 U.S.$
F-47
AOL,Statistical Quarterly
AOL,Statistical Quarterly
BEA.personal income data
AOL,Statistical quarterlY
AOL,Statistical quarterly
AOL,Statistical Quarterly
Variable
XXA9
XXCNl
XXCNS
XXDRNT
XXH9
XXH9l
XXf1X2
XXS8NT
XXSB
XXTNT
XXVACAP
XXVHY
Definition;Units
agriculture-forestry-fisheries real gross state
product;million 1972 U.S.$
endogenous (residentiary plus state government)
component of construction real gross state
product:million 1972 U.S.$
residentiary construction real gross state product;
million 1972 U.S.$
state retail trade net of tourism real gross
state product;million 1972 $
manufacturing real gross state product;
million 1972 U.S.$
manufacturing net of large projects real gross
state product net of large projects;million
1972 U.S.$
exogenous large-project manUfacturing real
gross state product;million 1972 U.S.$
support services (net of business,tourism.
and Native claims)real gross state product;
million 1972 U.S.$
business services real gross state product;
million'1972 U.S.$
transportation (net of tourism and exogenous
components)real gross state product;million
1972 U.S.$
value added in contract construction accounted for
by government (state)purchases fran the private
contracting industry;million 1972 U.S.$
value added in construction industry fran private
contracts for highway construction let by state
government;mi 11 ion $
F-48
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
l1ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
for construction methodology,see
Kresge and Thanas."Est imati n9
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,
No.1
for construction methodologies,
see Kresge and Thanas,"Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions.Vol.XI,No.1
constructed from ADPW worksheets
-
-
....
....
-
-
-
....
i'
-
-
I!"""
I
Variable
XXVNHY
XXab
YR
Definition;Units
value added in construction industry fran private
contracts for ~nhighway construction let by
state government;million $
real gross state product in industry ab;
ab=A9 CM CN DR OW D9 FI GA GF PU P9 59 T9;
million 1972 U.S.$
year
F-49
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP DoclJllentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADPW worksheets
for construction methodologies,see
Kresge and Thomas,"Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,No.1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
APPENDIX G
MAP ECONOKIC KODEL LISTING
Including""'"i I
, I
'T
I
~
I
I
KODEL:A83.2
1.Fiscal Kodu1e
2.Economic Kodu1e
3.Population Kodu1e
4.Household Kodu1e
5.Native Economic Activity
6.Definitional Equations
7.Links to Income Distribution Kode1
8.Parameter List
T,,
PURPOSE:This model calculates annual statewide economic,fiscal,and
demographic output based on user-specified input assumptions.
DATE:
SYMBOLS
Kay 1983
ENDOGENOUS:
ADKSD AEX AGI AHG ATD ATI ATI.TT ATT BALCAP84 BALDF BALGF
BALGFCP BALGFP BALPF BAL99 BIU BL CEA9N CECKN CECNN CED9N
CEFIN CEGAN CEGFN CEK9N CEPUN CEP9N CES9N CET9N CNNPF1
CNNPF10 CNNPF11 CNNPF12 CNNPF13 CNNPF14 CNNPF15 CNNPF2 CNNPF3
CNNPF4 CNNPF5 CNNPF6 CNNPF7 CNNPF8 CNNPF9 CNNPKI CNNPKIO
CNNPK11 CNNPK12 CNNPK13 CNNPK14 CNNPK15 CNNPK2 CNNPK3 CNNPK4
CNNPH5 CNNPK6 CNNPH7 CNNPK8 CNNPK9 COLA DEBTP82 DF.RSVP DPI
DPIRES DPI8 ELBD ELED ELEDCP ELEDI ELNEDI ELPERS EL99
EMAFISH EMA9 EKCK EKCN EKCNRT EKCNX EMCNI EMDR EKDRNT
EKDTOUR EKDW EKD9 EKFI EKGA EKGF EKGL EKGS EKKO EKK9 EKK91
EKPRO EKPROFIS EKPR01 EKPU EKRATE EKRATNI EKSB EMSP EKSTOUR
EKSUP EMS8NT EKS9 EKS91 EKTCU EKTNT EMTOUR EKTTOUR EMT9
EKT91 EMX EK96 EK97 EK98 EK99 EXANSAV EXCAP EXCAPFR EXCDS
EXCDSNT EXCDS4 EXCPS EXCPSFED EXCPSHY EXCPSM EXCPSNH EXDFCON
EXDFWITH EXDSS EXEDS EXEDS4 EXGF EXGFBM EXGFCHY EXGFCNH
EXGGS EXGGS4 EXHES EXHES4 EXINREC EXJUS EXJUS4 EXLIK EXLIMOK
-EXNOPS EXNRS EXNRS4 EXOPS EXPFCON EXPPS EXPPS4 EXPRCDS
EXPREDSI EXPRGGS EXPRHES EXPRJUS EXPRNRS EXPRPPS EXPRSSS
EXPRTRS EXPRUA EXPR99 EXSAVS EXSSS EXSSS4 EXSUBS EXTRNS
EXTRS EXTRS4 EXUA EX99S FAGI FAGII GOBONDL GODT GR GTR
IK.BAL IK.BALRV LPTB LPTBI KIGIN KIGOUT KILPCT NATPFI
NATPFIO NATPFll NATPF12 NATPF13 NATPF14 NATPF15 NATPF2 NATPF3
NATPF4 NATPF5 NATPF6 NATPF7 NATPF8 NATPF9 NATPKI NATPMIO
NATPKll NATPM12 NATPK13 NATPM14 NATPKIS NATPM2 NATPK3 NATPM4
NATPK5 NATPM6 NATPK7 NATPM8 NATPK9 NCCAP NCCI NCPI P.DPINN
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
PDCON PDEXOPS PDRATIO PDRPI PDUSCPI PI PIDIR PIOLI PIPROF
PIPR01 PlRADJ PISSC PITRAN PITRANl PI3 PI8 POP POPC POPGER
POPM POPMIG POPNE POPSKUL PR.BALCP PR.DPINN PR,DPIUS PR.PI
PR.PI3 R.BALCAP R.DPI R.DPI8N R.DPI8X R.WR97 RLHC RLOT RLPTl
RLTCS RLTCS4 RLTEB RLTEB4 RLTEF4 RLTEO RLTE04 RLTET RLTET4
RLTE99 RLTE994 RLTF RLTMA RLTMA4 RLTHS RLTRS RLTRS4 RLTT9
RLTT94 RLTVS4 RLT99 RMIS RMISRES ROFAS ROFERS ROFOS RSFDN
RSFFS RSFSl RSGF RSGFBM RSIAS RTAS 'RTBS2 RTCIS RTCSl RTIS
RTISC RTISCAl RTISCA2 RTISCP RTISLOS RTMF RTOTS RTPIF RTSS
RTVS R99S TPTV VAEX WEALTH WEUS WRA9 WRCH WRCN WRCNNP
WRCNP WRDR WRDW WRD9 WRFI WRGA WRGC WRGF WRGL WRGM WRGS
WRM9l WRPU WRP9 WRSB WRSNB WRS9 WRT9 WR98 WSCN WSCNP WSGA
WSGC WSGL WSGH WSGS WSGSFY WS97 WS98 XXA9 XXCM XXCN XXCNl
XXCN8 XXDR XXDRNT XXDW XXD9 XXFI XXGA XXGF XXM9l XXPU XXP9
XXSB XXS8NT XXS9 XXTNT XXT9 XXVHY XXVNHY XX98
CONSTRUCT:
DF.BALDF DF.BALGF DF.BALPF DF.BAL9P DF.BAL99 DF.CABBM DF.EXGF
OF.EXGFB DF.EXGFP DF.GOXBH DF.NPET DF.NRP9S DF.PI DF.PIP
DF.RGFNT DF.RP9S DF.RSEN DF.RSFD DF,RSGF DF.RSGFB DF.RSIDN
DF.RSIGN DF.RSIN DF.RSINN DF.RSIP DF,RSIPN DF.R99S DF.WRG9
DF.WRNS DF.WRSP DF.WSG9 DF.WSNS DF.WSSP DF.WS98 EM.EMCN
EM.EHGA EH.EHGF EM.EMG9 EM.EMNR EH.EMNS EM.EHP9 EM.EMSP
EM.EMSUP EH.EHTCU EX.DSS EX.NPET EX.NRP9 EX.PET EX.RP9S
EX.RSEN EX.RSIN EX.RVNT EX.R99S EXBM.CAB EXBM.END EXBM.FD
EXBH.GRl EXBH.RV G.BAL9PC G.BAL99 G.EL99 G.EM99 G.EX99S
G.PDRPI G.POP G.PR.DPI G.PR.PI G.R.WR98 G.RNSPC G.RSEN G.SRPC
G.XONRPC IM.BALPC IM.BALR IM.BAL99 IM.BLRPC IM.REV INDEX.DI
INDEX.Sl INDEX.S2 INDEX.WG P.BALGF P.BALPF P.BAL99 P.DPINNl
P.ELED P.ELNEDl P.EL99 P.EXBH P.EXCAP P.EXONTR P.EXOPS
P.EX99S P.GEXP P.GODT P.NPET P.NRP9S P.PI P.PIN P.PINCL
P.PINN P.RLT99 P.RSEN P.RSIN P.RSIP P.RTIS P.RT99 P.R99S
PI.DPI PI.EL99 PI.EXL PI.EXS PI.EXT PI.EX99S PI.GODT PI.RLPT
PI.RL99 PI.RSEN PI.TXL PI.TXS PI.WS98 PIU.PIA POP.AD POP.CIV
POP.GER POP.KID POP.MIL POP.NAT PR.BALGl PR.BALG2 PR.BALPF
PR.BALP2 PR.BAL99 PR.DPI PR.DPIN PR.ECP PR.ECPN PR.ELED
PR.ELEDC PR.ELNED PR.EL99 PR.EXBM PR.EXCAP PR.EXCDS PR.EXEDS
PR.EXGGS PR.EXHES PR.EXJUS PR.EXNRS PR.EXONT PR.EXOPS PR.EXPPS
PR.EXSSS PR.EXTRS PR.EX99S PR.GEXP PR.GFC PR.GFCN PR.GODT
PR.NCEXP PR.NPET PR.NRP9 PR.PIN PR.PINCL PR.PINN PR.RLT99
PR.RSEN PR.RSIN PR.RSIP PR.RTIS PR.RT99 PR.R99S R.PI R.PIN
R.PINN R.WR98 RL99.PT RL99.RT RN.FED RN.OIL RN.RSEN RN~RSIN
RS.FED RS.OWN RS.PET RS.REC RS.RN RS.RP9S RS.RSEN RS.RSIN
RSBM.B99 RSBM.GF RSBM.PET RSBM.PF RSBH.REN RSBM.RP9 U.AK.US
WR.AK.US
G-2
-
-.
i
-
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
DEFINITION:
ADMDIS ADMREA BALCAB BALCABBH BALLANDS BALOCAL BCRUDE BTHTOT
BTOT CBR CDR CF1 CF10 CF11 CF12 CF13 CF14 CF15 CF2 CF3
CF4 CF5 CF6 CF7 CF8 CF9 CHHF10 CHHF11 CHHF12 CHHF13 CHHF14
CHHF15 CHHF4 CHHF5 CHHF6 CHHF7 CHHF8 CHHF9 CHHM10 CHHM11
CHHM12 CHHM13 CHHM14 CHHH15 CHHM4 CHHM5 CHHM6 CHHH7 CHHM8
CHHM9 CHI CM10 CM11 CM12 CM13 CM14 CH15 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
CM6 CM7 CM8 CH9 CNNTOT DCRUDE DELEMP DTHINF DTHTOT DTOT
EMCU EMG9 EMHX EMNA EMNAT EMNC EHNNC EMNR EMNS EMOCSX
EMRATN EXBUD EXCAPNEW EXCAPREP EXCPSGOB EXEDSNT EXGFCAP
EXaFOPER EXHYCAP EXNHYCP EXOM84 EXONTR EXPFCON1 EXPFNEW
EXPFREIN EXRP84 EXSPLIT HH HHC HHF10 HHF11 HHF12 HHF13
HHF14 HHF15 HHF4 HHF5 HHF6 HHF7 HHF8 HHF9 HHM HHM10 HHM11
HHM12 HHM13 HHM14 HHM15 HHM4 HHM5 HHM6 HHH7 HHM8 HHM9 HHN
HHSIZE HHSIZEC HHSIZEN HH24 HH25.29 HH30.54 HH55 LF LPTBFV
LPTBP9 LPTB1FV NAPF1 NAPF2 NAPF3 NAPF4 NAPF5 NAPF6 NAPF7
NAPM1 NAPM2 NAPM3 NAPM4 NAPM5 NAPH6 NAPM7 NATINC NATTOT
NBTHTOT NCBR NCDR NCEXPNCF1 NCF10 NCF11 NCF12 NCF13 NCF14
NCF15 NCF2 NCF3 NCF4 NCF5 NCF6 NCF7 NCF8 NCF9 NCM1 NCH10
NCM11 NCM12 NCM13 NCH14 NCM15 NCM2 NCH3 NCM4 NCM5 NCM6
NCM7 NCM8 NCM9 NCWS NDTHINF NDTHTOT NEHA9N NEMCMN NEMCNN
NEMD9N NEHFIN NEMGAN NEMGFN NEHM9NNEMPUN NEMP9N NEMS9N
NEMT9N NHHF10 NHHF11 NHHF12 NHHF13 NHHF14 NHHF15 NHHF4 NHHF5
NHHF6 NHHF7 NHHF8 NHHF9 NHHM10 NHHM11 NHHM12 NHHM13 NHHM14
NHHM15 NHHM4 NHHM5 NHHM6 NHHM7 NHHM8 NHHM9 NNATINC NNPF1
NNPF2 NNPF3 NNPF4 NNPF5 NNPF6 NNPF7 NNPM1 NNPM2 NNPM3 NNPM4
NNPM5 NNPM6 NNPM7 NONPET NONRP9S NWSA9N NWSCMN NWSCNN NWSD9N
NWSFIN NWSGAN NWSGFN NWSM9N NWSPUN NWSP9N NWSS9N NWST9N PF
PFN PIL PIN PINN PIN1 PIPE PIPRO PLFDOMC PLFDOMM PLFDOHN
PLFD9 PH PHN POPADS POPCGQ POPF1 POPF10 POPF11 POPF12
POPF13 POPF14 POPF15 POPF2 POPF3 POPF4 POPF5 POPF6 POPF7
POPF8 POPF9 POPGQ POP KIDS .POPM1 POPM10 POPM11 POPM12 POPM13
POPH14 POPH15 POPM2 POPM3 POPM4 POPM5 POPM6 POPM7 POPM8
POPM9 POPNGQ POPNI9 PPVAL PRINT PTBP9 RATI01 RAT1 RLPT
RLTEA RLTEA4 RLTEC RLTEC4 RLTEF RLTOT RLTOT4 RLTVS RL99
RL991 RNAT ROFTS RPBSGF RPRYGF RP7S RP9S RP9SGF RSBM.EXD
RSEN RSENGF RSFDNPXG RSFS RSGFGAP RSGFRS RSID RSIDNET RSIG
RSIGNET RSIN RSINNET RSIP RSIPGF RSIPNET RTBS RTBS1 RTCS
RTISCA RT99 R99SNT R99S0N SLGEXP THG UNEHP WRCU WRGCN WRGCU
WRGD9 WRGFI WRGGA WRGGC WRGMS WRGH9 WRGP9 WRGS9 WRGT9 WRM9
WRM9P WR97 WSA9 WSCM WSD9 WSFI WSGF WSM9 WSM9P WSNA WSPU
WSP9 WSS9 WSS91 WST9 WS98L XXM9 XXVACAP Xl X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
EXOGENOUS:
ANCSA BADD BALDF1 BALGF1 BALPF1 BAL991 BASEMCNX BASEPOP
BAS EXCAP BASEXGF BASEXOPS BASPDRPI BIU1 D.80DEC6 D61.66
D61.68 D61.69 D61.70 D61.72 D61.73 D61.74 D61.75 D61.76
D61.77 D64.65 D69 D71.00 D71.73 D72 D75 D77.00 D79 D81.00
EMNATX EXCAP1 EXCPSHY1 EXCPSNH1 EXDSSX EXGFCHY1 EXGFCNH1
EXOPS1 GODTX LPTRAT NCBP NCRP PCNCI PCNC2 PCNC3 PCOLART
PDUSCPll PIPADJ PR.DPIU1 P9PTPER RNATX RTISXX SANCSA TCRED
TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX TXRT VAEX1 WEUS1 YR
G-3
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
Kay 1983
POLICY:
EMAGRI EKCNXI EKCNX2 EKFISH EKGC EKGK EMMXI EMMX2 EKP9
EKT9X EXBOND EXDFPCNT EXDFI EXPFBAK EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFI
EXPRPER EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSI GRDIRPU GREXCAP
GREXOPS GRRPCEX GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI RLPTX RLTFPX RLTX
RPBS RPPS RPRY RPTS RP9X RSFDNPX RSFDNX RTCSPX RTCSX
TOURIST UUS XXKX2
COEFFICIENT:
CKIGI CKIG2 CKIG3 CKIG4 CIA CIB CIC CIOA CIOB CIOC CIOOA
CIOOB CIOOC CIOIA CIOIB CI02A CI02B CI02C CI02D CI02F C103A
CI03B CI03C CI04A CI04B CIOSA CIOSB CIOSC CI06A CI06B CI07A
CI07B CIIA CIIB Cl2A Cl2B Cl3A Cl3B Cl4A Cl4B Cl4C CISA
CISB Cl6A Cl6B Cl6C Cl6D Cl6E Cl7A C17B C18A C18B Cl9A
Cl9B C2A C2B C20A C20B C2lA C2lB C2lC C22A C22B C23A C238
C23C C23D C24A C24B C2SA C2SB C26A C26B C26C C27A C27B
C27C C28A C28B C28C C29A C29B C3A C38 C30A C30B C3lA C3lB
C32A C32B C33A C33B C34A C34B C34C C3SA C3SB C36A C36B
C36C C36D C36F C37A C37B C38A C38B C39A C39B C4A C48 C40A
C40B C4lA C4lB C42A C42B C43A C43B C43C C44A C44B C44C
C44D C4SA C4SB C4SC C4SD C46A C46B C47A C47B C48A C48B
C49A C49B CSA CSB CSOA CSOB CSIA CSIB CS2A CS2B CS3A CS3B
CS3C CS3D CS3F CS4A CS4B CS4C CS4D CS4E CSSA CSS8 CSSC
CS6A CS6B CS7A CS7B CS7C CS8A CS8B CS9A CS9B CS9C CS9D
CS9E C59F C6A C6B C60A C60B C60C C6lA C6lB C62A C62B C62C
C62D C62F C63A C63B C64A C64B C64C C64D C64E C6SA C6SB
C66A C66B C66C C66D C66E C66F C67A C67B C67C C6BA C6BB
C68C C68D C69A C69B C7A C7B C70A C70B C70C C70D C70F C7lA
C7lB C7lC C7lD C7lE C72A C72B C72C C72D C73A C73B C73C
C74A C74B C74C C74D C74F C7SA C7SB C76A C76B C76C C76D
C76E C77A C77B C7BA C78B C7BC C7BD C7BE C7BF C79A C79B
C79D C79E C79F C8A C8B C80A C80B CBOC C8lA C8lB CB2A C82B
CB2C C82D C82F C83A C83C CB3D C83E C84A C84B CB4C CB4D
C8SA C8SB CB6A CB6B CB6C CB6D C86E CB6F CB7A CB7B C8BA
CBBB CBBC CBBD CBBE C8BF C8BG CB9A C9A C9B C90A C90B C9lA
C9lB C92A C92B C92C C92F C93A C93B C94A C94B C9SA C9SB
C9SC C9SD C9SF C96A C96B C97A C97B C9BA C98B C99A C99B
PARAMETER:
AFTOT CPGQFI CPGQFIO CPGQFII CPGQFl2 CPGQF13 CPGQFl4 CPGQFIS
CPGQF2 CPGQF3 CPGQF4 CPGQFS CPGQF6 CPGQF7 CPGQF8 CPGQF9
CPGQKI CPGQKIO CPGQKII CPGQKl2 CPGQKl3 CPGQKl4 CPGQKIS CPGQM2
CPGQM3 CPGQK4 CPGQKS CPGQK6 CPGQM7 CPGQKB CPGQK9 EXANNU
EXCAPIKP EXCAPOLD EXELI EXEL2 EXEL3 EXEL4 EXEL5 EXEL6
EXLIMB2 EXOMCOST EXOPSIKP EXRLOP6 EXRLOP7 EXRLOP8 EXRLI EXRL2
EXRL3 EXRL4 EXRL40P EXRLS FERTIO FERTII FERT4 FERTS FERT6
FERT7 FERT8 FERT9 GI GIO GIl Gl2 Gl3 Gl4 GIS G2 G3 G4
GS G6 G7 GB G9 HHRFIO HHRFII HHRFl2 HHRFl3 HHRFl4 HHRFIS
HHRF4 HHRFS HHRF6 HHRF7 HHRFB HHRF9 HHRMIO HHRMII HHRMl2
HHRM13 HHRMl4 HHRMIS HHRM4 HHRMS HHRM6 HHRM7 HHRMB HHRM9
LFPART KDPFI MDPFlO MDPFII MDPFl2 KDPFl3 MDPFl4 MDPFIS MDPF2
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May I983
MDPF3 KDPF4 MDPF5 MDPF6 MDPF7 MDPF8 MDPF9 MDPMI MDPMIO
MDPMII MDPMI2 MDPMI3 MDPMI4 MDPMI5 MDPM2 MDPM3 MDPM4 MDPM5
KDPM6 MDPK7 MDPK8 KDPM9 KDTOT KFI KFIO KFII MFI2 KFI3 MFI4
KFI5 MF2 MF3 MF4 KF5 KF6 MF7 MF8 MF9 KHHFIO MHHFII KHHFl2
MHHFI3 MHHFI4 KHHFI5 KHHF5 MHHF6 KHHF7 KHHF8 MHHF9 MHHKIO
MHHMII KHHKI2 KHHMI3 KHHKI4 KHHKI5 KHHK5 MHHM6 MHHM7 MHHM8
MHHK9 KILFI KILFIO MILFII MILFI2 KILFI3 MILFI4 MILFI5 KILF2
MILF3 KILF4 KILF5 KILF6 KILF7 MILF8 MILF9 KILMI MILMIO
KILMII MILMI2 KILMI3 MILMI4 KILKI5 KILM2 MILM3 MILM4 KILK5
MILK6 MILM7 MILM8 KILM9 KILRAT KMI KMIO KMII KMI2 MMI3
MMI4 KMI5 KM2 KM3 KM4 KM5 KM6 KM7 KM8 KM9 NFERTIO NFERTll
NFERT4 NFERT5 NFERT6 NFERT7 NFERT8 NFERT9 NHHRFIO NHHRFll
NHHRFI2 NHHRFI3 NHHRFI4 NHHRFI5 NHHRF4 NHHRF5 NHHRF6 NHHRF7
NHHRF8 NHHRF9 NHHRMIO NHHRMII NHHRKI2 NHHRKI3 NHHRKI4 NHHRKI5
NHHRM4 NHHRM~NHHRK6 NHHRK7 NHHRK8 NHHRM9 NKFI NKFIO NKFll
NMFI2 NKF13 NKFI4 NKFI5 NKF2 NMF3 NKF4 NKF5 NKF6 NKF7 NKF8
NKF9 NKMI NKMIO NKMII NMMI2 NKMI3 NKMI4 NKMI5 NKM2 NMM3
NKM4 NKM5 NKM6 NKM7 NKM8 NKM9 NPGQFI NPGQFIO NPGQFII
NPGQFI2 NPGQFI3 NPGQFI4 NPGQFI5 NPGQF2 NPGQF3 NPGQF4 NPGQF5
NPGQF6 NPGQF7 NPGQF8 NPGQF9 NPGQKI NPGQMIO NPGQKII NPGQMI2
NPGQMI3 NPGQKI4 NPGQKI5 NPGQK2 NPGQM3 NPGQM4 NPGQM5 NPGQM6
NPGQM7 NPGQM8 NPGQK9 NRCFIO NRCFII NRCFI2 NRCFl3 NRCFI4
NRCFI5 NRCF4 NRCF5 NRCF6 NRCF7 NRCF8 NRCF9 NRCMIO NRCMII
NRCMI2 NRCMI3 NRCKI4 NRCMI5 NRCK4 NRCM5 NRCM6 NRCK7 NRCK8
NRCM9 NSEXDIV NSFI NSFIO NSFll NSFI2 NSFI3 NSFI4 NSFI5 NSF2
NSF3 NSF4 NSF5 NSF6 NSF7 NSF8 NSF9 NSMI NSMIO NSKII NSMI2
NSMI3 NSMI4 NSMI5 NSK2 NSK3 NSK4 NSM5 NSM6 NSK7 NSK8 NSK9
NSURINFF NSURINFM NTP OEMFI OEMFIO OEKFII OEMFI2 OEKFI3
OEKFI4 OEKFI5 OEKF2 OEMF3 OEKF4 OEMF5 OEMF6 OEKF7 OEMF8
OEMF9 OEKMI OEKMlO OEKMII OEMMI2 OEKMI3 OEMMI4 OEKMI5 OEMM2
OEMM3 OEKM4 OEKM5 OEKM6 OEKM7 OEKM8 OEKM9 PADJ PADI PAD2
PARLVFV PARNONGF PBLTBL PBTRATE PCINDA PCIVPY PCNCSV PCNCSVI
PCNCWS PCNC4 PCWSI PCYNAl PCI2N PCI2RN PCI3C PC39A PC39B
PDRPIBAS PECIG PERNAI PERNA2 PERNA3 PESLT PESLTC PFISHI
PIDIST PNTGR POPMGQ PRINT2 PTOURB PTOURD PTOURE PTOURS
PTOURT PTRTS PWRBASE PI P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 RCFIO RCFII RCFI2
RCFI3 RCFI4 RCFI5 RCF4 RCF5 RCF6 RCF7 RCF8 RCF9 RCMIO
RCKII RCKI2 RCMI3 RCMI4 RCMI5 RCM4 RCM5 RCM6 RCM7 RCM8
RCM9 ROR RORANGRO RORCPDEP RORCRF RORDISK RORNC RORPDF
RORPPF SEXDIV SFI SFIO SFII SFI2 SFI3 SFl4 SFI5 SF2 SF3
SF4 SF5 SF6 SF7 SF8 SF9 SKI SKIO SKII SMI2 SMI3 SMI4
SMI5 SM2 SM3 SK4 SK5 SK6 SM7 SM8 SM9 SURINFF SURINFK TP
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
EQUATIONS
National Variables
1:PR.DPIUS =IF YR LT 1982 THEN PR.DPIU1 ELSE PR.DPIUS(-l)*
(l+GRDIRPU)
2:PDUSCPI =IF YR LT 1982 THEN PDUSCPI1 ELSE PDUSCPI(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI)
3:WEUS =IF YR LT 1982 THEN WEUS1 ELSE WEUS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRRWEUS)
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4:PDRATIO =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 1.296 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1981 THEN MM
1.266 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 1.262 ELSE (IF RTIS(-2)-RTIS(-1)
NE 0 AND RTIS(-2)EQ 0 THEN PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(EMSP-EMSP(-1»1
EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EK98(-1)/(EK98-EMCNX1»)-C67C ELSE
PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(EKSP-EKSP(-1»/EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EKCNRT/(EM98(-1)1
(EM98-EMCNX1»»»
Price Deflators
5:PDRPI =PDRATIO*PDUSCPI
6:PDEXOPS =WSGSFY(-1)/EXOPS(-1)*(WRGA*100/PWR8ASE)+(EXOPS(-1)-
WSGSFY(-l»/EXOPS(-l)*PDRPI
7:PDCON =C107A+C107B*WRCNNP
Fiscal Module
state Revenues
8:RP7S --RPBS+RPRY+RSFDNPX
9:RP9S --RP7S+RPPS+RPTS+RTCSPX+RP9X
10:RP9SGF --RP9S-EXPF1*RP7S
11:RPBSGF --(l-EXPFl)*RPBS
12:RPRYGF --(1-EXPF1)*RPRY
13:RSFDNPXG ==(1-EXPF1)*RSFDNPX
14:DF.RSVP =IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE DF.RSVP(-1)+RP9S*
(PDRPI8AS/PDRPI)*(1/(1+RORDISK)**(YR-1981»
15:LOG(FAGI)=C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNX1+EMP9)
G-6
18:AGI =FAGI+COLA-WSGM-PCI2N*PCI2RN*ANCSA*PCNC1
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16:
17:
LOG(FAGII)=C22A+C22B*LOG(PI)
COLA =(1-1/(I+PCOLART»*WSGC
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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19:AEX*1000 =CI0A+CI0B*POPC+CI0C*(EMCNXI+EHP9)
20:ATT =C28A+C28B*(EK99-EMGM)+C28C*EMCNXI
21:LOG(ATD/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72
22:VAEX =IF YR LT 1980 THEN VAEX1 ELSE VAEX(-I)*(I+GRUSCPI)
23:ATI =AGI-AEX*VAEX-ATD
24:ATI.TT =ATI/ATT
25:LOG(RTISCAl)=C24A-TXBASE+C24B*(I-TXRT)*LOG(ATI.TT)
26:LOG(RTISCA2)=C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT)
27:RTISCA ==IF YR GT 1984 THEN (IF EXTRNS+EXTRNS(-I)EQ 0 THEN
EXRL5*(RTISCAI-TXCRPC*RTISCAI-TCRED/I000)ELSE 0)ELSE (IF YR LT
1979 THEN RTISCAI-TXCRPC*RTISCAI-TCRED/I000 ELSE 0)
28:RTISLOS ==(RTISCA2-RTISCA)*ATT
29:RTISC =RTISCA*ATT
30:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISC(-I)+C25B*RTISC
31:RTISCP =CI05A+CI05B*PI8+CI05C*RTISC
32:LOG(RTPIF/ATT)=C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/I000/ATT+
RTISLOS/ATT)+C26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/I000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)
38:LOG(RTBS2*10**3/BL(-I»=C29A+C29B*LOG(GTR(-I)*10**3/BL(-I»
39:RTBS ==IF YR GE 1979 THEN RTBSl+RTBS2*PBLTBL ELSE RTBSl+RTBS2
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
40:LOG(RTCS1~100/PDRPI)=C43A+C43C~D64.65+C43B~LOG(EMP9(-1)+
EMCN(-1)+EMM9(-1)+EMT9(-1)+EMCM(-1)+EMPU(-1»
41:RTCS ==RTCS1+RTCSPX+RTCSX
42:TPTV =C38A+C38B*POP
43:LOG(AHG)=C37A+C37B~LOG(PR.PI)
44:THG ==AHG~TPTV
45:LOG (RTMF)=C46A+C46B~LOG(THG)
46:LOG(RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1»
47:LOG(RTAS)=C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPI(-1»
48:LOG(RTCIS)=C49A+C49B~LOG(R.DPI(-1»
49:RTSS =IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50B*(EM99-EMGM)
50:RTOTS =RTOTS(-1)~(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
51:RT99 ==RTIS+RTCS+RPPS+RPTS+RP9X+RTBS+RTMF+RTAS+(1-PECIG)*
RTCIS+RTVS+RTSS+RTOTS
52:LOG(ROFAS)=C30A+C30B*LOG(TPTV(-1»
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-
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53:LOG(ROFOS)C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-1»
54:ROFTS ==ROFAS+ROFOS
55:ROFERS =ROFERS(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
56:LOG(RMIS)=C35A+C35B~LOG(PI3(-1»
57:RSIP ==(ROR+GRUSCPI+RORPPF)~BALPF(-1)
58:RSIPGF ==(l-EXPFBAK)*RSIP
59:RSID --(ROR+GRUSCPI-RORPDF)*BALDF(-1)
60:RSIG --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BALGF(-1)
61:RSIN --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BAL99(-1)+RORPPF*BALPF(-1)-RORPDF*BALDF(-1)
62:RSIPNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1)+RORPPF)*BALPF(-1)
63:RSIDNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1)-RORPDF)*BALDF(-1)
64:RSIGNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1»~BALGF(-1)
G-8
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
65:RSINNET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1»*BAL99+RORPPF*
BALPF(-l)-RORPDF*BALDF(-l)
66:RSGFBM =RT99+(1-EXPF1)*RP7S+ROFTS+ROFERS+RSIG+(1-EXPFBAK)*
RSIP+RMIS+EXDFWITH
67:RSFDN =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 187.968 ELSE RSFDNX+RSFDN(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
68:RMISRES =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 16.739 ELSE RMISRES(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
69:RSGFRS ==RSFDN+RMISRES
70:RSGF =RSGFBM+RSGFRS
71:R99S =RSGF+EXPF1*RP7S+EXPFBAK*RSIP+(RSID-EXDFWITH)-SANCSA
72:LOG(RSFFS)=C58A+C58B*LOG(POP(-1»
73:RSFS1 =RSFS1(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
74:RSFS ==PECIG*RTCIS+RSFFS+RSFS1
75:RSIAS =IFYR EQ 1982 THEN 31.12 ELSE RSIAS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+
GRDIRPU)
76:R99SNT --R99S-EXPFCON
77:R99S0N --R99S-RSFDN
78:NONPET --R99S-RP9S-RSIN
79:NONRP9S ==R99S-RP9S
80:RSEN ==R99S-(RP9S-SANCSA)-RSIN-RSFDN
81:RSENGF ==RSGFBM-RP9SGF-RSIPGF-RSIG
82:EXPFCON =EXPFBAK*RSIP+EXPF1*RP7S+EXPFCONX
83:EXPFNEW ==EXPF1*RP7S
84:EXPFREIN --EXPFBAK*RSIP
85:EXPFCON1 --EXPFCON-EXPFCONX
86:EXDFCON =IF RSGFBM GT EXGFBM THEN EXDF1*(RSGFBM-EXGFBM)+
(RSID-EXDFWITH)ELSE RSID-EXDFWITH
87:EXDFWITH =EXDFPCNT*RSIDNET
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
State Expenditures
88:EXLIM =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN EXLIM82 ELSE EXLIM82*
(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)*(POP/430)
89:EXLIMOK =IF YR LT 1985 THEN EXLIK ELSE (IF RSGFBK-EXDSS-EXTRNS+
BALGF(-l)GT EXLIK THEN EXLIK ELSE RSGFBH-EXDSS-EXTRNS)
90:RSGFGAP --EXLIM-EXLIMOK
91:EXSPLIT --IF YR LT 1985 THEN 0.67 ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 AND
RSGFGAP(-l)GT 0 THEN EXSPLITX ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 THEN
0.67+(EXSPLITX-0.67)/2 ELSE 0.67»
92:EXOPS =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXOPS1 ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIMOK*EXSPLIT+
EXINREC+RSFDN+RKISRES+RSFS+RSIAS)+EXRL1*(EXOPS(-1)*(1+(EXEL1*(POP
(-1)/POP(-2)-1)+EXEL2*(PDEXOPS(-1)/PDEXOPS(-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3
(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXEL5*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-
1)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-EMCNX1(-1»/(POP(-2)-EHCNX1(-2»-1)»+EXRLOP6*
BALGFCP(-1)*(BALGFP(-1)/EXGF(-1»)+EXRLOP7*(R99S(-1)-EXNOPS(-l)-
EXSAVS)+EXRLOP8*(R99S(-1)-EXNOPS(-1)-EXANSAV)+EXRL3*(1+GRRPCEX)*
(EXOPS(-1)/POP(-1)/PDEXOPS(-I)*POP*PDEXOPS)+EXRL2*EXOPS(-l)*
(1+GREXOPS)+EXRL4*(BASEXOPS+EXOPSIMP*(PDEXOPS*(POP-BASEPOP-
EXRL40P*(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX»»
93:EXANSAV =RP9S+RSIN-EXANNU*(1+RORANGRO)**(YR-1980)
94:EXSAVS =EXSAVX+EXPFCON+TXPTXX*RTISLOS
95:LOG(EXJUS4)=C20A+C20B*LOG(EXOPS)
96:LOG(EXPPS4)=C91A+C91B*LOG(EXOPS)
97:LOG(EXNRS4)=C93A+C93S*LOG(EXOPS)
98:LOG(EXHES4)=C94A+C94S*LOG(EXOPS)
99:LOG(EXSSS4)=C96A+C96S*LOG(EXOPS)
100:LOG(EXEDS4)=C19A+C19S*LOG(EXOPS)
101:LOG(EXCDS4)C97A+C97S*LOG(EXOPS)
102:LOG(EXTRS4)=C98A+C98S*LOG(EXOPS)
103:LOG(EXGGS4)=C99A+C99S*LOG(EXOPS)
104:RATIOI ==EXOPS/(EXEDS4+EXSSS4+EXHES4+EXNRS4+EXPPS4+EXJUS4+
EXCDS4+RLTX+EXTRS4+EXGGS4)
105:EXUA =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 197.7 ELSE EXUA(-I)*(EXOPS/EXOPS(-l»
G--I0
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-
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106:EXEDS =RATI01*EXEDS4
107:EXSSS =RATI01*EXSSS4
108:EXHES =RATI01*EXHES4
109:EXNRS =RATI01*EXNRS4
110:EXPPS =RATI01*EXPPS4
111:EXJUS =RATI01*EXJUS4
112:EXTRS =RATI01*EXTRS4
113 :EXGGS =RATI01*EXGGS4
114:EXCDS =RATI01*(EXCDS4+RLTX)
115 :RLTE99 =RLTE994*RATI01
116:EXEDSNT ==EXEDS-RLTE99
117:RLTT9 =RLTT94*RATI01
118:RLTRS =RLTRS4*RATI01
119 :EXCDSNT =EXCDS-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTX
120:EXPRCDS =C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
121:EXPREDS1 =C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT
122:EXPRSSS =C2A+C2B*EXSSS
123:EXPRUA =C32A+C32B*EXUA
124:EXPRHES =C3A+C3B*EXHES
125:EXPRNRS =C4A+C4B*EXNRS
126:EXPRPPS =C5A+CSB*EXPPS
127:EXPRGGS =C8A+C8B*EXGGS
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\i
129:EXPRTRS =C9A+C9B*EXTRS
130:EXPR99 =EXPRPER*(EXPREDS1+EXPRSSS+EXPRHES+EXPRNRS+EXPRPPS+
EXPRJUS+(+EXPRCDS)+EXPRGGS+EXPRTRS+EXPRUA)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
131:WSGSFY;PCWS1*EXPR99
132:LOG(WSGS);C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75
133:EXTRNS;IF YR LT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 425 ELSE
RSIP*(l-EXPFBAK)*EXPFDIST)
134:EXINREC;C17A+C17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)
135:EXSUBS;IF YR LT'1988 THEN EXSUBS1 ELSE (IF EXRL5 EQ 1 THEN (IF
RSGFBK(-1)+RSGFBK(-2)-1 LT EXGFBM(-1)+EXGFBM(-2)OR EXSUBS(-l)
EQ 0 THEN 0 ELSE EXLIKOK*(O.5*(1-EXSPLIT»)ELSE
EXSUBS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI»
136:EXCAP;IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCAP1 ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIMOK*
(1-EXSPLIT)-EXSUBS)/(1-EXBOND)+EXRL3*«1+GRSSCP)*PR.BALCP(-l)*POP/
1000-R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(1+RORCPDEP»)/(100/PDCON)+EXRL2*(EXCAP(-l)*
(1+GREXCAP»+EXRL4*(BASEXCAP+EXCAPIMP*(PDCON*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*
(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX»»+EXRL1*(EXCAP(-1)*(1+EXEL1*(POP(-1)/POP(-2)-
1)+EXEL2*(PDCON(-1)/PDCON(-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+
EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXELS*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-
EMCNX1(-1»/(POP(-2)-EMCNX1(-2»-1»)
137:EXGFCHY;IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCHY1 ELSE 0.6*EXCAP*(1-EXBOND)
138:EXGFCNH;IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCNH1 ELSE O.4*EXCAP*(1-EXBOND)
139:EXCPSHY;IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSHY1 ELSE 0.2S*EXCAP*EXBOND
140:EXCPSNH;IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSNH1 ELSE 0.7S*EXCAP*EXBOND
141:EXHYCAP --EXGFCHY+EXCPSHY
142:EXNHYCP --EXGFCNH+EXCPSNH
143:EXGFCAP --EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH
144:EXCAPFR;EXCAPFR(-l)*(EXCAP/EXCAP(-l»
145:EXCPS;EXCPSHY+EXCPSNH
146:XXVHY;C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1»
147:XXVNHY;C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(-1)+EXSPCAP(-1)-EXCAPFR(-2)+
EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP-EXCAPFR(-l»
148:XXVACAP ==(XXVHY+XXVNHY)/(PDCON/100)
149:EXDSS;IF YR LT 1983 THEN EXDSSX ELSE EXDSSX+RORCRF*DEBTP82(-1)
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150:EXCPSFED =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 105.021 ELSE EXCPSFED(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI)
151:EXCPSGOB --EXCPS-EXCPSFED
r,.I
152:EXCPSK =IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE EXCPSGOB
153:DEBTP82 =IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE
DEBTP82 (-1)+EXCPSGOB-EXCPSK(-20)
154:
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!
156:
GODT =IF YR LT 1983 THEN GODTX ELSE GODTX+EXCPSK(-19)*0.05+
EXCPSK(-18)*0.1+EXCPSK(-17)*0.15+EXCPSK(-16)*0.2+EXCPSK(-15)*0.25+
EXCPSK(-14)*0.3+EXCPSK(-13)*0.35+EXCPSK(-12)*0.4+EXCPSK(-11)*0.45+
EXCPSK(-10)*0.5+EXCPSK(-9)*0.55+EXCPSK(-8)*0.6+EXCPSK(-7)*0.65+
EXCPSK(-6)*0.7+EXCPSK(-5)*0.75+EXCPSK(-4)*0.8+EXCPSK(-3)*0.85+
EXCPSK(-2)*0.9+EXCPSK(-1)*0.95+EXCPSGOB
EXGF =EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS-EXINREC+EXGFCAP-
RSFS-RSIAS
EX99S =EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS+EXCAP+PARNONGF*EXUA
rr
iU
157:EXGFBK =EXGF+EXPFCONX-RSFDN-RKISRES
158:EXNOPS =EX99S-EXOPS
159:EXBUD ==EXOPS+EXDSS+PARNONGF*EXUA
160:EXGFOPER ==EXGFBK-EXTRNS-EXGFCAP-EXSUBS-EXSPCAP-EXPFCONX
161:EXONTR --EXOPS+EXDSS-RLTE99-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTKS-RLTX
162:BALCAB --R99S-EXGF
163:BALCABBK ==RSGFBK-EXGFBK
164:BAL99 =IF YR LT 1982 THEN BAL991 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 3612
ELSE BAL99(-1)+R99S-EXGF)
165:BALGF =IF YR LT 1982 THEN BALGF1 ELSE BAL99-BALPF-BALDF
166:BALDF =IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALDF1 ELSE BALDF(-l)+EXDFCON
167:BALPF =IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALPF1 ELSE BALPF(-l)+EXPFCON
168:BALGFP =IF BALGF LT 0 THEN 0 ELSE BALGF
169:BALGFCP =IF BALGF-BALGF(-l)GT 0 THEN BALGF-BALGF(-l)ELSE 0
170:R.BALCAP =R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(1+RORCPDEP»+EXCAP*100/PDCON
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171:PR.BALCP =R.BALCAP~1000/POP
172:EXCAPREP ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-1)+
EXCAPOLD~(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)
173:EXCAPNEW ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXCAP-EXCAPREP -174:BALCAP84 =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE BALCAP84(-1)*PDRPII
PDRPI(-l)+EXCAPNEW
175:EXOM84 ==BALCAP84(-1)~EXOKCOST
176:EXRP84 --RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-1)
Local Revenues -177:LOG(LPTBl)=C57A+C57B~LOG(PI3(-1»+C57C*D71.00
178:LPTB1FV ==LPTB1*1/PARLVFV
179:PTBP9 ==RPPS~(l/PTRTS)
180:LPTBP9 ==P9PTPER~PTBP9
181:LPTB =LPTB1+LPTBP9*LPTRAT
182:LPTBFV ==LPTB1FV+LPTBP9
183:PPVAL ==LPTB1FV+PTBP9
184:RLPT1 =C18A+C18B*LPTB
185:RLPT ==RLPT1+RLPTX
186:LOG(RLOT~1000/POP{-1»=C31A+C31B~LOG(PI(-1)~1000/POP(-1»
187:RLTCS4 =IF YR GT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE PESLTC~RTCS1
188:RLTVS4 =C63A+C63B*RTVS
189:RLTOT4 ==PESLT~RTOTS
190:RLTMA4 =IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE
RLTMA(-l)/PDRPI(-l)/POP(-l)~POP*PDRPI
191:RLTT94 RLTVS4+RLTOT4+RLTCS4+RLTMA4
192:RLTRS4 RLTRS{-1)~(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
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193:RLTKS =IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 50.887 ELSE (IF EXSUBS EQO THEN 0
ELSE RLTMS{-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU»
194:RLTEC4 --PECIG*RTCIS
195:ADMDIS --PAD1*POPSKUL(-1)
196:ADMREA --PAD2*POPSKUL{-1)
197:ADMSD =ADKDIS+ADMREA
198:BIU =IF YR LT 1980 THEN BIU1 ELSE BIU{-l)*{l+GRUSCPI)
199:RLTEF4 =C36A+C36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADKSD
200:RLTET4 =(POP/POP(-l)+PDRPI/PDRPI{-l)-l)*RLTET{-l)
201:RLTE04 =RLTEO(-l)*{l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
202:RLTEA4 ==RLTEC4+RLTEF4+RLTET4+RLTE04
203:RLTEB4 =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 7.5 ELSE
RLTEB (-I)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
204:RLTE994 =RLTEA4+RLTEB4
205:RLTCS =RLTCS4*RATI01
206:RLTVS --RLTVS4*RATI01
207:RLTOT --RLTOT4*RATI01
208:RLTHA =RLTHA4*RATI01
209:RLTEC --RLTEC4*RATI01
210:RLTEF --RLTEF4*RATI01
211:RLTET =RLTET4*RATI01
212:RLTEO =RLTE04*RATI01
213:RLTEA ==RLTEA4*RATI01
214:RLTEB RLTEB4*RATI01
215:RLT99 =RLTT9+RLTRS+RLTE99+RLTMS+RLTX
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Local Expenditures
216:ELED1 =CI1A+C11B*PI3(-1)
217:ELED =RLTE99+ELED1
218:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDL(-1)+C14B*GOBONDL(-1)
219:ELNED1/PDRPI =C16A+C16E*D81.00+C16D*R.DPI8N(-1)+
C16B*D71.00*R.DPI8N(-1)+C16C*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
220:EL99 =ELED+ELNED1+ELBD+RLTX+RLTFPX+RLTMS
221:RLTF =RLTF(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
222:RL991 ==RLPT+RLOT+RLT99+RLTF+RLTFPX
223:RLMC =EL99-RL991-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»
224:RL99 ==RL991+RLMC
225:ELEDCP =C15A+C15B*ELED
226:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*(EL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
227:WSGL =C13A+PC13C*D81.00+C13B*(ELPERS+ELPERS(-1»
228:GOBONDL =GOBONDL(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
229:SLGEXP ==EX99S+EL99-RLT99
230:BALOCAL ==RL99-(EL99-ELBD)
231:BALLANDS ==BALOCAL+BALCAB
Economic Module
Personal Income
232:PIDIR =C51A+C51B*(DPI+DPI(-1)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPI(-4»
233:PITRAN1 =IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 500.245 ELSE PITRAN1(-1)1
POPGER(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)*POPGER
234:PITRAN/PDRPI =IF YR GT 1980 THEN PITRAN1/PDRPI+EXTRNS/PDRPI
ELSE C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI
235:PIOLI =C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-1)
236:PISSC =C106A+C106B*(WS98-WSCNP)
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237:PIPR01*lOO/PDRPI =C45A+C45B*EKPR01+C45C*D61.66+C45D*D79
238:PIPROF =EKPROFIS*(4.523*(PDRPI/340»
239:PIPRO ==PIPR01+PIPROF
240:PI8 =WS98+PIOLI+PIPRO-PISSC+PIDIR+PITRAN
241:NCCI =PC12N*(1-PCNC1)*ANCSA+(1-PCNC2)*NCRP+(1-PCNC3)*
RORNC*NCCAP(-l)
242:NCCAP =PCNCSV*NCCI+NCCAP(-1)+PCNCSV1*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP
243:NCEXP ==(1-PCNCSV)*NCCI+(1-PCNCSV1)*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP
244:NCWS ==PCNCWS*NCEXP
245:NCPI =PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA+PC12RN*PCNC2*NCRP+PC12RN*
PCNC3*RORNC*NCCAP(-1)+PC12RN*PCNC4*NCBP
246:PlRADJ*lOO/PDRPI =C103A+C103B*EKCNX1+C103C*EK97
247:PI =PI8-PlRADJ
248:PI3 =PI-PI/WS98*WRCNP*EKCNX1/1000
249:R.PI --PI*lOO./PDRPI
250:P.PI --PI*lOOO./POP
251:PR.PI3 =PI3*100/PDRPI*1000/(POP-EKCNX1)
252:PR.PI =R.PI*lOOO./POP
253:WEALTH =(PR.PI+PR.PI(-1)+PR.PI(-2)+PR.PI(-3»/4
254:DPI =PI-RTPIF-RTISCP-DPIRES+RTISXX
255:DPI8 =DPI+PlRADJ
.....256:R.DPI =100.*DPI/PDRPII
257:PR.DPI ==R.DPI*lOOO/POP
P"j'"
I 258:R.DPI8N DPI8*100/PDRPI-R.DPI8X
" I
259:R.DPI8X =DPI8/PI8*WRCNP*EKCNX1/10/PDRPI-
~,
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May 1983
Sectoral Activity
260:EMCNRT =IF EMCNXl/4 LT EMCNXl(-l)THEN 0 ELSE EMCNXl1
(EM98-EMCNXl)
261:PIPE ==IF EMCNXI-EMCNXl(~I)GT 5 THEN 1 ELSE 0
262:XXCN8 =C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54C*R.DPI8X+C54D*R.DPI8X(-I)+
C54E*D64.65
263:XXCNI =XXCN8+XXVACAP
264:LOG(EMCNl)=C56A+C56B*LOG(XXCNl)
265:EMCNX =EMCNXl+EMCNX2
266:EMCN =EMCNl+EMCNX
267:XXCN =EMCN/EMCNl*XXCNl
268:LOG(WRCNNP/PDRPI)=
C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C59C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+
C59D*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-l»+C59E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2»
269:WRCNP =WRCNNP*PIPADJ
270:WSCN =(EMCNl+EMCNX2)*WRCNNP/1000+EMCNXI*WRCNP/1000
271:WRCN =WSCN/EMCN*1000
272:WSCNP =EMCNXl*WRCNP/1000
273:LOG(XXP9)=C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9)
274:LOG(WRP9/PDRPI)=C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D*D61.76+C53B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)
275:WSP9 ==EMP9*WRP9/1000
276:EMMO =C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77
277:EMM91 =EMMO+EMKX2
278:LOG(XXM91)=C61A+C61B*LOG(EMM91)
279:XXM9 ==XXM91+XXMX2
280:EMMX ==EMMXl+EMMX2
281:EMM9 =EMMO+EMKX
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282:LOG(WRK91/PDRPI):C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C62C*LOG(1+EKCNRT)+C62D*LOG(1+EKCNRT(-1U
283:WRK9p::WRK91*PADJ
284:WSK9:=(EKKO+EKHX2)*WRK91/1000+EKHX1*WRK9P/1000
285:WSK9p::EKKX1*WRK9P/1000
286:WRK9::WSK9/EKK9*1000
287:XXTNT:C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-1)+C64C*
R.DPI8N+C64E*D71.73
I""",
288:LOG (EKTNT):C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT)
289:EKTTOUR :PTOURT*EKTOUR
290:EKT91 :EKTNT+EKTTOUR
291:EKT9 :EKT91+EKT9X
292:XXT9 :XXTNT*(EKT9/EKTNT)
293:LOG(WRT9/PDRPI):C66A+C66F*D.80DEC6+C66D*D61.76+C66B*LOG(WEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(1+EKCNRT)+C66E*LOG(1+EKCNRT(-1»
294:WST9::EKT9*WRT9/1000.
295:XXCK:C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
296:LOG(EKCK):C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCK)
297:LOG(WRCK/PDRPI)=C70A+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C70C*LOG(1+EKCNRT(-2»+C70D*LOG(l+EKCNRT(-1»
298:WSCK::EKCK*WRCK/1000.
299:XXPU:C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+C72D*R.DPI8N(-2)
300:LOG(EKPU):C73A+C73C*PIPE(-1)+C73B*LOG(XXPU)
301:LOG (WRPU/PDRPI):C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C74C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOG(1+EKCNRT(-1»
,,
I
I 302:WSPU::EKPU*WRPU/1000.
303:XXDW:C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-1)*
R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
304:XXDRNT:C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8N(-1)+
C76E*R.DPI8X(-1)
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305:LOG (EKDW)=C77A+C77B*LOG(XXDW)
306:LOG (EKDRNT)=C75A+C75B*LOG(XXDRNT)
307:EKDR =EKDRNT+EKDTOUR
308:LOG(WRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C78C*LOG(I+EKCNRT)+C78D*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-I»+C78E*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-2»
309:LOG(WRDR/PDRPI)=C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
(+C79D)*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-I»+C79E*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-2»
310:EKDTOUR =PTOURD*EKTOUR
311:EKD9 =EKDRNT+EKDW+EKDTOUR
312:WSD9 ==(EKDRNT+EKDTOUR)*WRDR/I000+EKDW*WRDW/I000
313:WRD9 =WSD9/EKD9*1000
314:XXD9 =(XXDW+XXDRNT)/(EKDW+EKDRNT)*EKD9
315:XXDR =XXD9-XXDW
316:XXFI =C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-I)*POP(-I)
317:LOG(EKFI)=C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI)
318:LOG(WRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C82D*LOG(I+EKCNRT)+C82C*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-I»
319:WSFI ==EKFI*WRFI/I000.
320:XXS8NT =C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8X(-I)+C84D*
WEALTH(-I)*POP(-I)
321:XXSB =C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-I)+C83E*
WEALTH(-I)*POP(-I)
322:LOG(EKS8NT)=C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT)
323:LOG(EKSB)=C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB)
324:LOG(WRSNB/PDRPI)=C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C86C*LOG(I+EKCNRT)+C86D*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-I»+C86E*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-2»
325:LOG(WRSB/PDRPI)=C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88E*D61.70+C88B*LOG(WEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(I+EKCNRT)+C88D*LOG(I+EKCNRT(-I»+C88G*LOG
(I+EKCNRT(-2»
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326:EMSTOUR =PTOURS*EMTOUR
327:EMS91 =EHSB+EMS8NT+EMSTOUR
328:WSS91 ==(EMS8NT+EMSTOUR)*WRSNB/1000+EMSB*WRSB/1000
329:WSS9 ==WSS91+NCWS
330:EMS9 =EMS91+NCWS/(WRS9*1000)
331:WRS9 =WSS91/EMS91*1000
332:XXS9 =(XXS8NT+XXSB)/(EMS8NT+EMSB)*EMS9
333:EMGF =EMGH+EMGC
334:LOG(XXGF)=C101A+C101B*LOG(EMGF)
335:LOG(WRGC/PDRPI)=C89A+LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
336:WRGM =WRGC*PCIVPY
337:WSGC =WRGC*EMGC/1000
338:WSGH =WRGM*EMGM/1000
339:WSGF ==WSGC+WSGH
340:WRGF =WSGF/EHGF*1000
341:LOG(WRGS/PDRPI)=IF C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C92C*D6l.73 LT LOG(WRGS(-1)/PDRPI(-1»THEN
LOG(WRGS(-1)/PDRPI(-1»ELSE C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C92C*D61.73
342:EMGS =WSGS/WRGS*1000
343:LOG(WRGL/PDRPI)=IF C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69+C102C*
LOG(1+EHCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)LT LOG(WRGL(-1)/PDRPI(-1»
THEN LOG(WRGL(-1)/PDRPI(-1»ELSE C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*
D61.69+C102C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
344:EHGL =WSGL/WRGL*1000
345:EMGA =EHGS+EMGL
346:WSGA =WSGS+WSGL
347:WRGA =WSGA/EHGA*1000
348:LOG (XXGA)=C104A+C104B*LOG(EMGA)
"""G-21
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349:EMA9;EMAFISH+EMAGRI+PC39A*D77.00+PC39B*EMMX2
350:XXA9;C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS)
351:LOG (WRA9/PDRPI);C95A+C95F*D.80DEC6+C95B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C95C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C95D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»
352:WSA9 =;EMA9*WRA9/1000.
353:EM98;EMP9+EMCN+EMM9+EMT9+EMCM+EMPU+EMD9+EMFI+EMS9+
EMGF+EMGA+EMA9
354:EM9Z;EK98-EMGM
355:WS98;(WRP9*EMP9+WRCN*EKCN+WRM9*EMM9+WRT9*EMT9+WRCM*
EMCM+WRPU*EMPU+WRD9*EMD9+WRFI*EMFI+WRS9*EMS9+WRGF*
EMGF+WRGA*EMGA+WRA9*EMA9)11000.
356:WS97;WS98-WSGM
357:WR98;WS98*1000/EM98
358:WR97;;WS97*1000/EM97
359:LOG(EMPR01);C100A+C100C*D61.66+CIOOB*LOG(EM98)
360:EMPROFIS =PFISHl*EMFISH
361:EMAFISH =(1-PFISH1)*EMFISH
362:EMPRO =EMPR01+EMPROFIS
363:EM99 --EM98+EMPRO
364:EM96;EM99-EMGM
365:EKK =EMCNX+EMP9
366:EMOCSX ==EMP9+EMT9X+EMCNX1+EMCNX2+EMMX1
367:EMCU --EMCM+EKPU
368:WRCU --(WSCM+WSPU)/EMCU*lOOO
369:EMNC --EMS9-EMS91
370:EMTCU =EMT9+EMCM+EMPU
371:EMSUP =EMD9+EMFI+EMS9
372:EMSP =EMTCU+EMSUP
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I
rT 373:EMG9 --EMGF+EMGA!.I
374:EMNR --EM99-EMSP-EMG9-EMCN-EMP9
375:EMNS --EM99-EMSP-EMG9
376:,LOG(EMTOUR)=PTOURB+PTOURE*LOG(TOURIST)
377:XX98 =XXP9+XXCN+XXK9+XXT9+XXCM+XXPU+XXD9+XXFI+XXS9+
~XXGF+XXGA+XXA9
Population Module..,.
Ci vilian Non-Native Population
~378:CM2 --G2*SM2*CNNPM2(-1)+(1-Gl)*CNNPM1(-1)*SMl
i
!!379:CF2 G2*SF2*CNNPF2(-1)+(1-Gl)*CNNPF1(-1)*SFl--
380:CM3 --G3*SM3*CNNPK3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPM2(-1)*SM2
381:CF3 --G3*SF3*CNNPF3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPF2(-1)*SF2
f"j"
:i 382:CM4 --G4*SM4*CNNPM4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPM3(-1)*SK3;i
383:CF4 --G4*SF4*CNNPF4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPF3(-1)*SF3
384:CMS --GS*SMS*CNNPMS(-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPK4(-1)*SM4
385:CFS --GS*SFS*CNNPFS(-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPF4(-1)*SF4
386:CM6 --G6*SM6*CNNPM6(-1)+(1-GS)*CNNPKS(-1)*SMS
~
387:CF6 --G6*SF6*CNNPF6(-1)+(1-GS)*CNNPFS(-1)*SFS
388:CM7 --G7*SK7*CNNPM7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPM6(-1)*SM6
389:CF7 --G7*SF7*CNNPF7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPF6(-1)*SF6
390:CM8 --G8*SM8*CNNPM8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPM7(-1)*SM7
391:CF8 --G8*SF8*CNNPF8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPF7(-1)*SF7
392:CM9 ==G9*SM9*CNNPM9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPM8(-1)*SM8
~393:CF9 ==G9*SF9*CNNPF9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPF8(-1)*SF8
I
394:CMIO --GIO*SMIO*CNNPMIO(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPM9(-1)*SM9
395:CFIO GIO*SFIO*CNNPFIO(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPF9(-1)*SF9
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~
396:CM11 --Gll*SMll*CNNPMll(-l)+(l-GlO)*CNNPMlO(-l)*SMlO
397:CF11 --Gll*SFll*CNNPFll(-l)+(l-GlO)*CNNPFlO(-l)*SFlO IIIIlIlII1l!I
398:CM12 --G12*SM12*CNNPM12(-1)+(1-Gll)*CNNPMll(-1)*SMl1 -399:CF12 --G12*SF12*CNNPF12(-1)+(1-Gl1)*CNNPFll(-1)*SFl1
400:CM13 --G13*SM13*CNNPM13(-1)+(1-G12)*CNNPM12(-1)*SM12
401:CF13 --G13*SF13*CNNPF13(-1)+(1-G12)*CNNPF12(-1)*SF12
402:CM14 --G14*SM14*CNNPM14(-1)+(1-G13)*CNNPM13(-1)*SM13
403:CF14 --G14*SF14*CNNPF14(-1)+(1-G13)*CNNPF13(-1)*SF13
404:CMlS G1S*SM1S*CNNPMlS(-1)+(1-G14)*CNNPM14(-1)*SM14 .-'"'1--.'1
405:CF1S --GlS*SFlS*CNNPFlS(-1)+(1-G14)*CNNPF14(-1)*SF14
"""1
406:BTHTOT ==CF4*FERT4+CFS*FERTS+CF6*FERT6+CF7*FERT7+CF8*FERT8+
CF9*FERT9+CF10*FERTIO+CF1l*FERT11-BADD
407:CMl --SEXDIV*BTHTOT*SURINFM
408:CFl --(l-SEXDIV)*BTHTOT*SURINFF
409:DTHINF --BTHTOT-CMI-CF1
410:DTHTOT --DTHINF+CM1S(-1)*(1-SM15)+CF1S(-1)*(1-SFlS)+CM14(-1)*
(1-SM14)+CF14(-1)*(1-SF14)+CM13(-1)*(1-SM13)+CF13(-1)*(1-SF13)+
CM12(-1)*(1-SM12)+CF12(-1)*(1-SF12)+CK1l(-1)*(1-SMll)+CFll(-l)*
(1-SF1l)+CMlO(-1)*(1-SMlO)+CFlO(-1)*(1-SF10)+CM9(-1)*(1-SM9)+
CF9(-1)*(1-SF9)+CM8(-1)*(1-SM8)+CF8(-1)*(1-SF8)+CM7(-1)*(1-SM7)+
CF7(-1)*(1-SF7)+CM6(-1)*(1-SM6)+CF6(-1)*(1-SF6)+CM5(-1)*(1-SM5)+
CFS(-1)*(1-SFS)+CM4(-1)*(1-SM4)+CF4(-1)*(1-SF4)+CM3(-1)*(1-SM3)+
CF3(-1)*(1-SF3)+CM2(-1)*(1-SM2)+CF2(-1)*(1-SF2)+CMl(-1)*(l-SMl)+
CFl (-1)*<l-SFl)
411:NATINC ==BTHTOT-DTHTOT
412:CNNPM10 =CMIO*(l+OEMKIO)+MIGIN*MMIO
413:CNNPFlO =CFIO*(l+OEMFIO)+MIGIN*HFIO
414:CNNPM11 =CM1l*(1+OEMKll)+MIGIN*MM11
415:CNNPF11 =CFl1*(1+OEMFll)+MIGIN*MF11
416:CNNPM12 =CM12*(1+OEMM12)+MIGIN*MM12
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442:CNNTOT:;::::CNNPHlS+CNNPFlS+CNNPM14+CNNPF14+CNNPK13+CNNPF13+
CNNPK12+CNNPF12+CNNPH11+CNNPF11+CNNPK10+CNNPF10+CNNPM9+CNNPF9+
CNNPH8+CNNPF8+CNNPH7+CNNPF7+CNNPH6+CNNPF6+CNNPHS+CNNPFS+CNNPH4+
CNNPF4+CNNPH3+CNNPF3+CNNPH2+CNNPF2+CNNPHl+CNNPFl
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
465:NCM13 ==G13*NSM13*NATPM13(-1)+(1-G12)*NATPM12(-1)*NSM12
.....466:NCFl3 ==G13*NSF13*NATPF13(-1)+(1-G12)*NATPF12(-1)*NSF12
467:NCM14 --G14*NSM14*NATPM14(-1)+(1-G13)*NATPM13(-1)*NSK13
468:NCF14 --G14*NSF14*NATPF14(-1)+(1-G13)*NATPF13(-1)*NSF13
469:NCM1S --G1S*NSM1S*NATPM1S(-1)+(1-G14)*NATPM14(-1)*NSM14
470:NCF1S --G1S*NSF1S*NATPF1S(-1)+(1-G14)*NATPF14(-1)*NSF14
471:NBTHTOT ==NCF4*NFERT4+NCFS*NFERTS+NCF6*NFERT6+NCF7*NFERT7+
NCF8*NFERT8+NCF9*NFERT9+NCF10*NFERT10+NCFll*NFERTll+BADD
472:NCMl --NSEXDIY*NBTHTOT*NSURINFM
473:NCFl --(l-NSEXDIY)*NBTHTOT*NSURINFF
474:NATPMl =NCM1*(l+NMMl)
475:NATPFl =NCF1*(l+NMF1)
476:NATPM2 =NCM2*(1+NMM2)
477:NATPF2 =NCF2*(1+NMF2)
478:NATPK3 =NCM3*(l+NMK3)
479:NATPF3 =NCF3*(l+NMF3)
480:NATPK4 =NCK4*(1+NMM4)
481:NATPF4 =NCF4*(l+NKF4)
482:NATPMS =NCMS*(l+NMKS)
483:NATPF5 =NCFS*(l+NMFS)
484:NATPM6 NCM6*(1+NKK6)
485:NATPF6 =NCF6*(1+NKF6)
486:NATPM7 =NCK7*(l+NKK7)
487:NATPF7 =NCF7*(1+NKF7)
488:NATPM8 NCM8*(1+NMK8)
489:NATPF8 =NCF8*(l+NMF8)
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490:NATPM9 ==NCK9:t:(l+NKM9)
491:NATPF9 ==NCF9 J1t (1+NKF9)
492:NATPK10 ==NCK10:t:(l+NKK10)
493:NATPF10 ==NCF10*(1+NKF10)
494:NATPKll ==NCKll:t:(l+NKKll)
495:NATPFll ==NCFll:IIC(l+NKFll)
496:NATPK12 ==NCM12:IIC(1+NKK12)
497:NATPF12 ==NCF12*(1+NKF12)
498:NATPM13 ==NCK13 J1t (1+NKK13)
499:NATPF13 ==NCF13:IIC(1+NMFl3)
500:NATPM14 ==NCM14:t:(1+NKK14)
501:NATPF14 ==NCF14*(1+NKF14)
502:NATPM15 ;:NCM15*(l+NMK1S)
503:NATPF1S ;:NCF1S:IIC(1+NKF1S)
504:NDTHINF =;:NBTHTOT-NCM1-NCF1
50S:NDTHTOT ===NDTHINF+NCK15(-1):t:(1-NSK1S)+NCF1S(-1):t:(1-NSF1S)+
NCK14 (-1):IIC(1-NSM14)+NCF14(-1)*(1-NSF14)+NCK13 (-l):IIC(l-NSK13)+
NCF13(-1):IIC(1-NSF13)+NCK12 (-1):IIC(1-NSM12)+NCF12(-1):IIC(1-N SF12)+
NCM11(-1)*(1-NSK11)+NCF11(-1):t:(1-NSF11)+NCK10(-1):IIC(1-NSK10)+
NCF10(-1):IIC(1-NSF10)+NCM9(-1):IIC(1-NSM9)+NCF9(-1):IIC(1-NSF9)+
NCK8(-1):t:(1-NSK8)+NCF8(-1):IIC(1-NSF8)+NCK7(-1):IIC(1-NSK7)+NCF7(-1):IIC
(1-NSF7)+NCM6(-1):t:(1-NSM6)+NCF6(-1):t:(1-NSF6)+NCM5(-1):IIC(l-NSMS)+
NCFS(-1):IIC(1-NSFS)+NCM4(-1):IIC(1-NSK4)+NCF4(-1):IIC(1-NSF4)+NCM3(-1)*
(1-NSK3)+NCF3(-1):t:(1-NSF3)+NCM2(-1):IIC<.1-NSK2)+NCF2(-1)*(1-NSF2)+
NCM1(-1)*(1-NSM1)+NCF1(-1):t:(1-NSF1)
506:NATTOT ===NATPK1S+NATPF15+NATPM14+NATPF14+NATPM13+NATPF13+
NATPK12+NATPF12+NATPK11+NATPF11+NATPK10+NATPF10+NATPM9+NATPF9+
NATPK8+NATPF8+NATPM7+NATPF7+NATPM6+NATPF6+NATPK5+NATPF5+NATPK4+
NATPF4+NATPK3+NATPF3+NATPK2+NATPF2+NATPK1+NATPF1
507:POPNE ==POPNE(-l)JltNATTOT/NATTOT(-l)
508:NNATINC ==NBTHTOT-NDTHTOT
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509:KIGOUT ~OEKKl*CKl+0EKK2*CK2+0EKK3*CK3+0EKK4*CK4+0EKK5*CK5+
OEKK6*CK6+0EKK7*CK7+0EKK8*CK8+0EKK9*CK9+0EKKI0*CKI0+0EKKI1*
CKll+0EKKI2*CKI2+0EKKI3*CKI3+0EKKI4*CKI4+0EKKI5*CKI5+0EKFI*
CFl+0EKF2*CF2+0EKF3*CF3+0EKF4*CF4+0EKF5*CF5+0EKF6*CF6+0EKF7*
CF7+0EKF8*CF8+0EKF9*CF9+0EKFI0*CFI0+0EKFII*CFII+0EKFI2*CFI2+
OEKFI3*CFI3+0EKFI4*CFI4+0EKFI5*CFI5+NKKl*NCKl+NKK2*NCK2+NKK3*
NCK3+NKK4*NCK4+NKK5*NCK5+NKK6*NCK6+NKK7*NCK7+NKK8*NCM8+NKK9*
NCK9+NKKI0*NCKI0+NKKII*NCKII+NKKI2*NCKI2+NKKI3*NCKI3+NKKI4*
NCKI4+NKKI5*NCKI5+NKFl*NCFl+NKF2*NCF2+NKF3*NCF3+NMF4*NCF4+
NMF5*NCF5+NKF6*NCF6+NKF7*NCF7+NKF8*NCF8+NKF9*NCF9+NKFI0*NCF10+
NMFll*NCFll+NKFI2*NCFI2+NKFI3*NCFI3+NKFI4*NCFI4+NMFI5*NCFl5
510:KIGIN ~POPKIG-KIGOUT
511:POPK =EKGK/KILRAT
512:KILPCT ~POPK/AFTOT
513:POP =CNNTOT+NATTOT+KILPCT*(AFTOT+KDTOT)
514:POPC =POP-POPK
Kilitary Population
515:POPMl --CNNPKl+KILPCT*KILKI+NATPKI
516:POPK2 --CNNPK2+KILPCT*KILK2+NATPK2
517:POPM3 --CNNPK3+KILPCT*KILK3+NATPM3
518:POPK4 --CNNPK4+KILPCT*KILK4+NATPM4
519:POPK5 --CNNPK5+KILPCT*KILK5+NATPK5
520:POPK6 --CNNPM6+KILPCT*KILK6+NATPK6
521:POPK7 --CNNPK7+KILPCT*KILK7+NATPK7
522:POPK8 --CNNPK8+KILPCT*KILK8+NATPK8
523:POPK9 --CNNPK9+KILPCT*KILK9+NATPK9
524:POPKI0 ==CNNPKI0+KILPCT*KILKI0+NATPKI0
525:POPK11 --CNNPKl1+MILPCT*KILKII+NATPKII
526:POPK12 --CNNPKI2+KILPCT*KILKI2+NATPKI2
527:POPK13 --CNNPKI3+KILPCT*KILKI3+NATPKI3
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Kay 1983
554:POPSKUL --POPK3+POPK4+POPK5+POPF3+POPF4+POPF5
555:POPKIDS --POPSKUL+POPM1+POPM2+POPF1+POPF2-POPM5-POPF5
556:POPGER =POPM15+POPF15
557:POPADS --POP-POPKIDS-POPGER
558:POP.AD --POPADS/POP
559:POP.KID --POPKIDS/POP
560:POP.GER --POPGER/POP
561:POP.MIL ==MILPCT~(AFTOT+MDTOT)/POP
562:POP.NAT --NATTOTIPOP
563:POP.CIV --CNNTOT/POP
564:PLFDOMC --CNNPK5+CNNPM6+CNNPM7+CNNPM8+CNNPM9+CNNPM10+
CNNPM11+11+CNNPM12+CNNPM13+CNNPM14+CNNPF5+CNNPF6+CNNPF7+
CNNPF8+CNNPF9+CNNPF10+CNNPF11+CNNPF12+CNNPF13+CNNPF14
565:PLFDOKN ==NATPM5+NATPM6+NATPM1+NATPM8+NATPK9+NATPM10+
NATPM11+NATPM12+NATPM13+NATPM14+NATPF5+NATPF6+NATPF7
+NATPF8+NATPF9+NATPF10+NATPF11+NATPF12+NATPF13+NATPF14
566:PLFDOMM ==MILPCT~(KILM5+MILM6+MILM7+KILM8+MILK9+KILK10+
MILM:1+MILM12+KILM13+MILM14+MILF5+MILF6+MILF7+MILF8+MILF9+
MILF10+MILF11+MILF12+MILF13+MILF14-AFTOT)
567:PLFD9 ==PLFDOMC+PLFDOKN+PLFDOMM
568:LF ==LFPART~PLFD9
569:UNEMP ==LF-EM96
570:U.AK.US ==UNEMP/LF/UUS
571:DELEKP ==EM96-EM96(-1)
572:WR.AK.US ==LOG(R.WR91)-LOG(WEUS~100/PDUSCPI)-(LOG(R.WR97(-1»
LOG(WEUS(-1)~100/PDUSCPI(-1»)
513:POPMIG =CKIG1+CMIG2~1/U.AK.US(-1)+CMIG3~WR.AK.US(-1)+
CMIG4~DELEKP
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-Household Kodu1e
574:CHHK4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPK4*(1-CPGQK4}*
(HHRK4+RCK4/TP*(YR-1980})
575:NHHK4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPK4*(1-NPGQK4}*
(NHHRK4+NRCK4/NTP*(YR-1980)}
576:HHK4 ==CHHK4+NHHK4
577:CHHK5 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPK5*(1-CPGQK5}*
(HHRK5+RCK5/TP*(YR-1980})
578:NHHK5 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPK5*(1-NPGQK5}*
(NHHRK5+NRCK5/NTP*(YR-1980})
579:HHK5 ==CHHK5+NHHK5+KHHK5*KILPCT
580:CHHK6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM6*(1-CPGQK6}*
(HHRK6+RCM6/TP*(YR-1980})
581:NHHK6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM6*(1-NPGQM6}*
(NHHRK6+NRCM6/NTP*(YR-1980})
582:HHK6 ==CHHM6+NHHM6+MHHM6*MILPCT
583:CHHM7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM7*(1-CPGQM7}*
(HHRK7+RCK7/TP*(YR-1980})
584:NHHM7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM7*(1-NPGQK7}*
(NHHRK7+NRCM7/NTP*(YR-1980})
585:HHM7 ==CHHM7+NHHM7+KHHK7*MILPCT
586:CHHM8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM8*(1-CPGQM8}*
(HHRK8+RCK8/TP*(YR-1980})
587:NHHM8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM8*(1-NPGQM8}*
(NHHRK8+NRCM8/NTP*(YR-1980})
588:HHM8 ==CHHM8+NHHK8+MHHM8*KILPCT
589:CHHM9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM9*(1-CPGQK9}*
(HHRK9+RCK9/TP*(YR-1980})
590:NHHM9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM9*(1-NPGQK9}*
(NHHRK9+NRCM9/NTP*(YR-1980})
591:HHM9 ==CHHK9+NHHM9+MHHK9*KILPCT
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592:CHHKI0 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPKI0*(I-CPGQK10}*
(HHRMI0+RCKI0/TP*(YR-1980)}
593:NHHK10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPKI0*(I-NPGQK10}*
(NHHRKI0+NRCK10/NTP*(YR-1980»
594:HHKI0 ==CHHKI0+NHHK10+KHHKI0*KILPCT
595:CHHKll ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPKll*{l-CPGQKll}*
(HHRKll+RCK11/TP*(YR-1980})
596:NHHKll ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPKll*(I-NPGQMll}*
(NHHRKll+NRCKll/NTP*(YR-1980})
597:HHKll ==CHHKll+NHHKll+KHHKll*KILPCT
598:CHHM12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPKI2*(1-CPGQK12}*
(HHRKI2+RCKI2/TP*(YR-1980})
599:NHHM12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPKI2*(I-NPGQMI2}*
(NHHRKI2+NRCKI2/NTP*(YR-1980})
600:HHK12 ==CHHKI2+NHHMI2+KHHKI2*KILPCT
601:CHHK13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPMI3*(I-CPGQMI3}*
(HHRKI3+RCKI3/TP*(YR-1980})-602:NHHM13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPMI3*(I-NPGQKI3}*
(NHHRKI3+NRCKI3/NTP*(YR-1980})
603:HHK13 ==CHHKI3+NHHMI3+MHHMI3*MILPCT
604:CHHK14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPMI4*(I-CPGQMI4)*
(HHRKI4+RCKI4/TP*(YR-1980})
605:NHHK14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPMI4*(I-NPGQMI4}*
(NHHRKI4+NRCMI4/NTP*(YR-1980})
606:HHK14 ==CHHMI4+NHHKI4+KHHKI4*KILPCT
607:CHHK15 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPMI5*(I'-CPGQKI5)*
(HHRKI5+RCMI5/TP*(YR-1980»
608:NHHM15 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPKI5*(I-NPGQKI5}*
(NHHRKI5+NRCKI5/NTP*(YR-1980})
609:HHM15 --CHHMI5+NHHKI5+KHHMI5*MILPCT
610:CHHF4 --IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF4*(I-CPGQF4}*
(HHRF4+RCF4/TP*(YR-1980»
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
611:NHHF4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF4*(1-NPGQF4)*
(NHHRF4+NRCF4/NTP*(YR-1980»
612:HHF4 ==CHHF4+NHHF4
613:CHHFS ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPFS*(l-CPGQFS)*
(HHRFS+RCFS/TP*(YR-1980»
614:NHHFS ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPFS*(l-NPGQFS)*
(NHHRFS+NRCFS/NTP*(YR-1980»
61S:HHFS ==CHHFS+NHHFS+MHHF5*MILPCT
616:CHHF6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF6*(1-CPGQF6)*
(HHRF6+RCF6/TP*(YR-1980»
617:NHHF6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF6*(1-NPGQF6)*
(NHHRF6+NRCF6/NTP*(YR-1980»
618:HHF6 ==CHHF6+NHHF6+MHHF6*MILPCT
619:CHHF7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF7*(1-CPGQF7)*
(HHRF7+RCF7/TP*(YR-1980»
620:NHHF7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE
NATPF7*(1-NPGQF7)*(NHHRF7+NRCF7/NTP*(YR-1980»
621:HHF7 ==CHHF7+NHHF7+MHHF7*MILPCT
622:CHHF8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF8*(1-CPGQF8)*
(HHRF8+RCF8/TP*(YR-1980»
623:NHHF8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF8*(1-NPGQF8)*
(NHHRFS+NRCFS/NTP*(YR-1980»
624:HHFS ==CHHF8+NHHF8+MHHF8*MILPCT
62S:CHHF9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF9*(1-CPGQF9)*
(HHRF9+RCF9/TP*(YR-1980»
626:NHHF9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF9*(1-NPGQF9)*
(NHHRF9+NRCF9/NTP*(YR-1980»
627:HHF9 ==CHHF9+NHHF9+MHHF9*KILPCT
628:CHHF10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPFIO*(1-CPGQF10)*
(HHRF10+RCF10/TP*(YR-1980»
629:NHHF10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF10*(1-NPGQF10)*
(NHHRFlO+NRCF10/NTP*(YR-1980»
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630:HHF10 ==CHHF10+NHHF10+MHHF10*MILPCT
631:CHHF11 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF11*(1-CPGQF11)*
(HHRF11+RCF11/TP*(YR-1980»
632:NHHF11 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF11*(1-NPGQF11)*
(NHHRF11+NRCF11/NTP*(YR-1980»
633:HHF11 ==CHHF11+NHHF11+MHHF11*MILPCT
634:CHHF12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF12*(1-CPGQF12)*
(HHRF12+RCF12/TP*(YR-1980»
635:NHHF12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF12*(1-NPGQF12)*
(NHHRF12+NRCF12/NTP*(YR-1980»
636:HHF12 ==CHHF12+NHHF12+MHHF12*MILPCT
637:CHHF13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF13*(1-CPGQF13)*
(HHRF13+RCF13/TP*(YR-1980»
638:NHHF13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF13*(1-NPGQF13)*
(NHHRF13+NRCF13/NTP*(YR-1980»
639:HHFl3 ==CHHF13+NHHFl3+MHHFl3*MILPCT
640:CHHF14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF14*(1-CPGQF14)*
(HHRF14+RCF14/TP*(YR-1980»
641:NHHF14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF14*(1-NPGQF14)*
(NHHRF14+NRCF14/NTP*(YR-1980»
642:HHF14 ==CHHF14+NHHF14+MHHF14*MILPCT
643:CHHF15 ==IF YRLT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF15*(1-CPGQF15)*
(HHRF15+RCF15/TP*(YR-1980»
644:NHHF15 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF15*(1-NPGQF15)*
(NHHRF15+NRCF15/NTP*(YR-1980»
645:HHF15 ==CHHF15+NHHF15+MHHF15*MILPCT
646:HH ==HHM4+HHM5+HHM6+HHM7+HHM8+HHM9+HHM10+HHM11+HHM12+HHM13+
HHM14+HHM15+HHF4+HHF5+HHF6+HHF7+HHF8+HHF9+HHF10+HHF11+HHF12+
HHF13+HHF14+HHF15
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MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
647:POPCGQ ==CNNPK1*CPGQK1+CNNPK2*CPGQK2+CNNPM3*CPGQK3+CNNPK4*
CPGQK4+CNNPH5*CPGQK5+CNNPK6*CPGQM6+CNNPM7*CPGQK7+CNNPM8*
CPGQM8+CNNPM9*CPGQM9+CNNPM10*CPGQK10+CNNPK11*CPGQH11+CNNPH12*
CPGQH12+CNNPM13*CPGQH13+CNNPH14*CPGQH14+CNNPH15*CPGQH15+CNNPFl*
CPGQF1+CNNPF2*CPGQF2+CNNPF3*CPGQF3+CNNPF4*CPGQF4+CNNPF5*CPGQF5+
CNNPF6*CPGQF6+CNNPF7*CPGQF7+CNNPF8*CPGQF8+CNNPF9*CPGQF9+CNNPFIO*
CPGQFIO+CNNPFll*CPGQF11+CNNPF12*CPGQF12+CNNPF13*CPGQFl3+CNNPF14*
CPGQF14+CNNPF15*CPGQF15
648:POPNGQ ==NATPMl*NPGQMl+NATPH2*NPGQM2+NATPH3*NPGQH3+NATPM4*
NPGQH4+NATPH5*NPGQH5+NATPK6*NPGQM6+NATPH7*NPGQH7+NATPH8*NPGQM8+
NATPM9*NPGQH9+NATPMIO*NPGQH10+NATPHll*NPGQHll+NATPH12*NPGQH12+
NATPK13 *NPGQH13+NATPM14*NPGQH14+NATPMl 5*NPGQM15+NATPFI *NPGQF1+
NATPF2*NPGQF2+NATPF3*NPGQF3+NATPF4*NPGQF4+NATPF5*NPGQF5+NATPF6*
NPGQF6+NATPF7*NPGQF7+NATPF8*NPGQF8+NATPF9*NPGQF9+NATPF10*
NPGQFIO+NATPF1l*NPGQFll+NATPF12*NPGQF12+NATPF13*NPGQFl3+
NATPF14*NPGQF14+NATPF15*NPGQF15
649:HHC ==CHHM4+CHHH5+CHHM6+CHHM7+CHHH8+CHHK9+CHHHIO+CHHH1l+
CHHH12+CHHM13+CHHH14+CHHH15+CHHF4+CHHF5+CHHF6+CHHF7+CHHF8+
CHHF9+CHHF10+CHHFll+CHHF12+CHHF13+CHHF14+CHHF15
650:HHN ==NHHH4+NHHH5~NHHK6+NHHH7+NHHM8+NHHM9+NHHHIO+NHHMll+
NHHM12+NHHH13+NHHM14+NHHK15+NHHF4+NHHF5+NHHF6+NHHF7+NHHF8+
NHHF9+NHHFIO+NHHFll+NHHF12+NHHF13+NHHF14+NHHF15
651:HHM ==MILPCT*(MHHK5+MHHH6+MHHM7+MHHH8+MHHM9+HHHHIO+MHHM11+
HHHM12+KHHM13+MHHM14+HHHH15+MHHF5+HHHF6+HHHF7+MHHF8+MHHF9+
HHHFIO+HHHFll+HHHF12+HHHF13+MHHF14+HHHF15)
652:HHSIZEN --(NATTOT-POPNGQ)/HHN
653:HHSIZEC --(CNNTOT-POPCGQ)/HHC
654:HHSIZE ==(POP-POPNGQ-POPCGQ-HILPCT*POPMGQ)/HH
655:POPGQ ==POPNGQ+POPCGQ+POPMGQ
656:HH24 ==HHF4+HHF5+HHF6+HHH4+HHM5+HHM6
657:HH25.29 ==HHF7+HHM7
658:HH30.54 ==HHF8+HHF9+HHFIO+HHFll+HHF12+HHM8+HHM9+
HHMIO+HHHll+HHM12
659:HH55 ==HHF13+HHF14+HHF15+HHM13+HHM14+HHM15
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1"1'",
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Native Economic Activity
660:EMNAT ==EMNATX
661:RNAT ==RNATX
662:EMRATE =EM96/POPC
663:EMRATN1 =(1+PERNA1*(EMRATE-EMRATE(-1»/EMRATE(-1»*EMRATN1(-1)+
PERNA2*(EMRATE-EMRATN1(-1»
664:EMNA ==IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN EMNAT(-1)*POPNE ELSE EMRATN1*
POPNE+PERNA3*EMNC
665:EMNNC ==EM99-EMGM-EKNA
666:EMRATN ==EMNA/POPNE
667:CEA9N =(1-PCINDA)*CEA9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMA9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
668:CEP9N =(1-PCINDA)*CEP9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMP9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
669:CECNN =(1-PCINDA)*CECNN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMCN/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
670:CEM9N =(1-PCINDA)*CEM9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMM9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
671:CET9N =(1-PCINDA)*CET9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMT9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
672:CECKN =(1-PCINDA)*CECMN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMCM/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
673:CEPUN =(1-PCINDA)*CEPUN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMPU/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
674:CED9N =(1-PCINDA)*CED9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMD9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
675:CEFIN =(1-PCINDA)*CEFIN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMFI/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
676:CES9N =(1-PCINDA)*CES9N(-1)+PCINDA*«EMS9-PERNA3*EMNC)/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
677:CEGFN =(1-PCINDA)*CEGFN(-1)+PCINDA*«EMGF-EMGM)/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
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MAP Documentation ""'"
May 1983
678:CEGAN =(l-PCINDA)*CEGAN(-l)+PCINDA*(EMGA/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EKNC»
679:NEMA9N ==CEA9N*(EKNA-PERNA3*EKNC)
680:NWSA9N ==WRA9*NEMA9N/IOOO
681:NEMP9N --CEP9N*(EKNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
682:NWSP9N --WRP9*NEMP9N/IOOO
683:NEMCNN ==CECNN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
684:NWSCNN ==WRCN*NEMCNN/1000
685:NEMM9N ==CEM9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
686:NWSM9N ==WRM9*NEMM9N/1000
687:NEMT9N ==CET9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
688:NWST9N ==WRT9*NEMT9N/1000
689:NEMCMN ==CECMN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
690:NWSCMN ==WRCM*NEMCMN/1000
691:NEMPUN ==CEPUN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
692:NWSPUN ==WRPU*NEMPUN/1000
693:NEMD9N ==CED9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
694:NWSD9N ==WRD9*NEMD9N/IOOO
695:NEMFIN ==CEFIN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
696:NWSFIN ==WRFI*NEMFIN/1000
697:NEMS9N ==CES9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)+PERNA3*EMNC
698:NWSS9N ==WRS9*NEMS9N/1000
699:NEMGFN ==CEGFN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
700:NWSGFN ==WRGF*NEMGFN/1000
701:NEMGAN ==CEGAN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
702:NWSGAN =~WRGA*NEMGAN/IOOO
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
~MAP Documentation
i I May 1983
703:WSNA ==NWSA9N+NWSP9N+NWSCNN+NWSM9N+NWST9N+NWSCMN+NWSPUN+
NWSD9N+NWSFIN+NWSS9N+NWSGFN+NWSGAN
1I
I
T
~r
T
704:PIN1 ==PCYNA1*«PI-NCPI)/WS98)*WSNA
705:PIN ==IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN RNAT(-1)*PI ELSE PIN1+NCPI
706:PINN ==PI-PIN
707:R.PIN ==PIN*100/PDRPI
708:R.PINN ==PINN*100/PDRPI
709:P.PIN ==PIN*1000/POPNE
710:P.PINCL ==NCPI*1000/POPNE
711:P.PINN --PINN*1000/(POP-POPNE)
712:PR.PIN --R.PIN*lOOO/POPNE
713:PR.NCEXP --NCEXP/POPNE/PDRPI*100000
714:PR.PINCL --PR.PIN+PR.NCEXP
715:PR.PINN ==R.PINN*lOOO/(POP-POPNE)
716:RATl ==PINN/(PI-PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA)
717:
718:
719:
720:
P.DPINN =1000*(PINN-RATl*(DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP»/(POP-POPNE)
P.DPINN1 ==1000*(PIN-PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA-(1-RAT1)*
(DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP»/POPNE
PR.DPINN =P.DPINN*100/PDRPI
PR.DPIN ==P.DPINN1*100/PDRPI+PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSAI
POPNE*100000/PDRPI
Definitional Equations
721:R.WR98 ==WR98*100/PDRPI
U 722:R.WR97 =WR97*100/PDRPI
r 723:P.EX99S --EX99S*1000./POP
724:P.EXCAP --EXCAP*1000/POP
725:P.EXOPS --EXOPS*1000/POP
T G-39
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-.
-726:P.EXONTR ==EXONTR*1000./POP
727 :P.EXBK --EXGFBK*1000/POP ~I
728:P.R99S --R99S*1000./POP -729:P.RTIS --RTIS*1000./POP
730:P.RT99 --RT99*1000./POP -731:P.EL99 --EL99*1000./POP
732:P.ELED --ELED*1000./POP
733:P.ELNED1 ==ELNED1*1000/POP
734:P.RLT99 ==RLT99*1000./POP ""'"
735:P.GEXP ==SLGEXP*1000/POP
""""736:P.BAL99 --BAL99*1000/POP
737:P.BALPF --BALPF*1000/POP """'I
738:P.BALGF --BALGF*1000/POP
739:P.RSIN --RSIN*lOOO/POP """I:
740:P.RSIP --RSIP*lOOO/POP
741:P.NRP9S ==NONRP9S*1000/POP
742:P.RSEN ==RSEN*1000/POP
743:P.NPET ==NONPET*1000/POP
744:P.GODT ==GODT*lOOO/POP
745:PR.EX99S --P.EX99S*100/PDRPI -746:PR.EXONT P.EXONTR*100/PDEXOPS
747:PR.EXBK ==EXGFBK:fCIO:fC*S/PDEXOPS/POP
""'"
748:PR.EXCAP --P.EXCAP*lOO/PDCON
749:PR.EXOPS ==P.EXOPS*lOO/PDEXOPS
750:PR.R99S --P.R99S:fCIOO/PDRPI
751:PR.RTIS P.RTIS:fC100/PDRPI
-G-40
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
778 :PR.RSIP --P.RSIP*{lOO/PDRPI)
779:PR.NRP9 --P.NRP9S*{100/PDRPI)
780:PR.NPET --P.NPET*{lOO/PDRPI)
781:PR.RSEN --P.RSEN*(lOO/PDRPI)
782:PR.GODT --P.GODT*(lOO/PDRPI)
783:PI.TXS --RT99/PI
784:PI.EXS --EXGF/PI
785:PI.TXL --(RL99-RLT99-RLTF)/PI
786:PI.EXL --(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»)/PI
787:PI.EXT --(EXGF+(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»)-RLT99)/PI
788:PI.RSEN --RSEN/PI
789:PI.GODT --GODT/PI
790:PI.EX99S ==EX99S/PI
791:PI.EL99 --EL99/PI
792:PI.RL99 --RL99/PI
793:PI.RLPT --RLPTIPI
794:PI.WS98 ==WS98/PI
795:PI.DPI ==DPIIPI
796:RL99.PT --RLPTlRL99
797:RL99.RT --RLT99/RL99
798:RS.FED ==RSFDN/R99S
799:RS.RP9S RP9S/R99S
800:RS.RSIN --RSIN/R99S
801:RS.RSEN --RSEN/R99S
802:RS.PET --(RP9S+RSIN)/R99S
803:RS.OWN --R99S0N/R99S
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1
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Institute of Social
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HAP Documentation
May 1983
804:RS.REC ==(RSIN+RSEN)/R99S
805:RS.RN ==R99SNT/R99S
806:RSBM.RP9 --RP9SGF/RSGFBM
807:RSBM.PET --(RP9SGF+RSIG+RSID+(1-EXPFBAK)*RSIP)/RSGFBM
808:RSBM.EXD --EXDSS/RSGFBM
809:RSBM.GF ==RSIG/RSGFBM
810:RSBM.B99 ==(RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF)/RSGFBM
811:RSBM.PF ==RSIPGF/RSGFBM
812:RSBM.REN ==RSENGF/RSGFBM
813:RN.FED --RSFDN/R99SNT
814:RN.OIL --(RP9S-EXPFCON)/R99SNT
815:RN.RSIN --RSIN/R99SNT
816:RN.RSEN --RSEN/R99SNT
817:EX.R99S --R99S/EXGF
818:EX.NRP9 --(RSEN+RSIN+RSFDN)/EXGF
819:EX.RSIN --RSIN/EXGF
820:EX.RP9S --1-EX.NRP9
821:EX.NPET ==NONPETlEXGF
822:EX.PET ==1-EX.NPET
823:EX.RSEN --RSEN/EXGF
824:EX.RVNT --R99SNTlEXGF
825:EX.DSS ==EXDSS/EXGF
826:EXBM.RV ==RSGFBM/EXGFBM
827:EXBM.CAB ==BALCABBM/EXGFBM
828:EXBM.FD ==BAL99/EXGFBM
829:EXBM.GR1 ==(~SGFBM+EXPFCON-EXPFBAK*RSIP-RP9S)/EXGFBM
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
830:EXBM.END ==EXDFWITH/EXGFBM
831:DF.RSFD --RSFDN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
832:DF.RP9S --RP9S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
833:DF.RSGF --RSGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
834:DF.RSGFB ==RSGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
835:DF.R99S ==R99S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
836:DF.RSEN --RSEN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
837:DF.RSIN --RSIN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
838:DF.EXGF --EXGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
839:OF.EXGFB --EXGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
840:DF.CABBM --BALCABBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
841:DF.GOXBM --(EXGFBM-EXGFCAP)*376.536/PDEXOPS
842:DF.NRP9S --NONRP9S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
843:DF.BAL99 --BAL99*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
844:DF.BALDF --BALDF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
845:DF.BALGF --BALGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
846:DF.NPET --NONPET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
847:DF.RSIP RSIP*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
848:DF.BALPF --BALPF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
849:DF.RGFNT --R99SNT*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
850:DF.RSIPN --RSIPNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
851:DF.RSIDN --RSIDNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
852:DF.RSIGN ==RSIGNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
853:DF.RSINN --RSINNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
854:DF.PI ==PI*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
855:DF.WS98 ==WS98*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
856:DF.WSG9 --(WSGS+WSGL+WSGC+WSGM)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
857:DF.WSSP --(WST9+WSCK+WSPU+WSD9+WSFI+WSS9)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
858:DF.WSNS --(WSA9+WSK9+WSCN+WSP9)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
859:DF.WRG9 --DF.WSG9*1000/EKG9
860:DF.WRSP --DF.WSSP*1000/EKSP
861:DF.WRNS --DF.WSNS*1000/(EMA9+EKK9+EMCN+EMP9)
862:DF.BAL9P --DF.BAL99*1000/POP
863:OF.EXGFP ==OF.EXGF*1000/POP
864:DF.PIP --DF.PI*1000/POP
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and Economic Research -
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
882:G.PR.PI ==PR.PI/PR.PI(-l)
883:G.PR.DPI =:PR.DPI/PR.DPI(-l)
884:G.RSEN:=RSEN/RSEN(-l)
885:G.EX99S ==EX99S/EX99S(-1)
886:G.EL99 ==EL99/EL99(-1)
887:G.PDRPI ==PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)
888:G.XONRPC =:PR.EXONT/PR.EXONT(-l)
889:G.POP =:POP/POP(-l)
890:G.EK99 --EK99/EK99(-1)
891:G.SRPC --PR.EX99S/PR.EX99S(-1)
892:G.RNSPC --P.RSEN/P.RSEN(-l)
-
-
893:G.BAL99 --BAL99/BAL99(-1)
894:G.BAL9PC --P.BAL99/P.BAL99(-1)
895:G.R.WR98 R.WR98/R.WR98(-1)-
896:PIU.PIA ==PR.DPINN/PR.DPIUS
897:INDEX.DI --PR.DPI/PR.DPIUS
898:INDEX.WG --R.WR97/(WEUS*52*100/PDUSCPI)
899:INDEX.S1 --EKSUP/R.DPI
900:INDEX.S2 --EKTCU/R.DPI
Income Distribution Kode1 Links
901:NNPKI --CNNPKS+KILPCT*KDPK5
902:NNPK2 ==CNNPK6+KILPCT*KDPK6
903:NNPK3 --CNNPK7+CNNPK8+MILPCT*(KDPK7+KDPK8)
904:NNPK4 --CNNPK9+CNNPK10+KILPCT*(KDPK9+KDPK10)
905:NNPK5 ==CNNPK11+CNNPH12+KILPCT*(MDPKl1+MDPK12)
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MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
906:NNPK6 --CNNPM13+CNNPK14+KILPCT*(KDPK13+KDPM14}
1 907:NNPK7 --CNNPK15+KILPCT*MDPK15
908:NNPF1 CNNPF5+KILPCT*KDPF5--
909:NNPF2 --CNNPF6+KILPCT*KDPF6
910:NNPF3 --CNNPF7+CNNPF8+KILPCT*(KDPF7+KDPF8}
1 911:NNPF4 --CNNPF9+CNNPF10+KILPCT*(KDPF9+KDPF10)
912:NNPF5 --CNNPF11+CNNPF12+KILPCT*(KDPF11+MDPF12}
913:NNPF6 --CNNPF13+CNNPF14+KILPCT*(KDPF13+KDPF14}
914:NNPF7 --CNNPF15+KILPCT*KDPF15
915:NAPK1 --NATPK5
916:NAPK2 ==NATPM6
917:NAPK3 --NATPM7+NATPK8
918:NAPK4 --NATPK9+NATPK10
T 919:NAPK5 --NATPK11+NATPK12
920:NAPK6 --NATPK13+NATPK14
921:NAPK7 --NATPK15
922:NAPF1 --NATPF5
923:NAPF2 --NATPF6
924:NAPF3 --NATPF7+NATPF8
925:NAPF4 --NATPF9+NATPFlO
926:NAPF5 --NATPF11+NATPF12
927:NAPF6 --NATPFl3+NATPF14 .
928:NAPF7 --NATPF15
929:PF ==CNNPF1+CNNPF2+CNNPF3+CNNPF4+KILPCT*(MDPF1+MDPF2+
KDPF3+KDPF4)
930:PK ==CNNPK1+CNNPM2+CNNPK3+CNNPK4+KILPCT*(KDPK1+KDPK2+
KDPM3+MDPK4)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
931:PFN ==NATPF1+NATPF2+NATPF3+NATPF4
932:PHN ==NATPHI+NATPH2+NATPM3+NATPM4
933:WRGKS ==(PI8-WS98)/(EKPRO*PDRPI)/«PI8(-1)-WS98(-I»/
(EKPRO(-I)*PDRPI(-l»)
934:WRGP9 ==WRP9/PDRPI/(WRP9(-1)/PDRPI(-I»
935:WRGCN ==WRCN/PDRPI/(WRCN(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
936:WRGM9 ==WRH9/PDRPI/(WRM9(-I)/PDRPI(-I»
937:WRGT9 ==WRT9/PDRPI/(WRT9(-I)/PDRPI(-1»
938:WRGCU ==WRCU/PDRPI/(WRCU(-I)/PDRPI(-l»
939:WRGD9 ==WRD9/PDRPI/(WRD9(-I)/PDRPI(-1»
940:WRGFI ==WRFI/PDRPI/(WRFI(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
941:WRGS9 ==WRS9/PDRPI/(WRS9(-I)/PDRPI(-1»
942:WRGGC ==WRGC/PDRPI/(WRGC(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
943:WRGGA ==WRGA/PDRPI/(WRGA(-I)/PDRPI(-I»
944:PRINT --PRINT2
945:Xl --PI
946:X2 --P2
947:X3 --P3
948:X4 --P4
949:X5 --P5
950:X6 --P6
951:WS98L ==WS98(-1)
952:PIL ==PH-I)
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Kay 1983
PARAMETER LIST:
1 A83.2 CONSTANT FILE FOR KODEL A83.2 OF THE ALASKAN ECONOMY.CREATED BY
THE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOKIC RESEARCH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
UNDER THE MAN IN THE ARCTIC PROGRAM FUNDED BY THE NATIONAL SCIENCE
FOUNDATION.REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS HAVE THE PREFIX C FOLLOWED BY A
1 NUMBER.THIS FILE WAS CREATED KAY 1983.•
CKIG1 -12.6876 CKIG2 14.1206 CKIG3 49.2216
CKIG4 0.95671 CPGQFl O.CPGQF10 0.0036
CPGQF11 0.0092 CPGQFl2 0.0051 CPGQF13 0.0093
CPGQF14 0.0032 CPGQF15 0.0751 CPGQF2 0.0045
CPGQF3 0.0032 CPGQF4 0.0031 CPGQF5 0.004
CPGQF6 0.0238 CPGQF7 0.004 CPGQF8 0.0022
CPGQF9 0.0011 CPGQK1 O.CPGQK10 0.0369
CPGQK11 0.0392 CPGQK12 0.0265 CPGQK13 0.0266
CPGQK14 0.0268 CPGQK15 0.0648 CPGQK2 0.0071
CPGQK3 0.0046 CPGQK4 0.0044 CPGQK5 0.0435
CPGQM6 0.0729 CPGQK7 0.0238 CPGQK8 0.0166
CPGQM9 0.0278 CIA 0.42666 C1B 0.050183
C1C 0.371052 C10A 16.9371 C10B 0.895141
C10C 6.97821 C100A -4.35555 C100B 1.25095
C100C -0.993033 C101A 5.58779 C101B 0.162732
C102A 4.0938 C102B 1.95194 C102C 1.68094
C102D -0.089862 C102F 0.243258 C103A -20.3494
C103B 15.8847 C103C 0.712195 C104A 2.28334
C104B 0.967574 C105A 1.01698 C105B 0.013219
C105C 0.73757 C106A -19.3534 C1068 0.069511
C107A -46.6199 C107B 0.014517 C11A -4.74734
C11B 0.024928 C12A 7.83103 C12B 0.520103
C13A -8.45346 C13B 0.683069 C13C -80.
T C14A -0.885606 C14B 0.173656 C14C -0.11048
C15A -8.30542 C15B 0.293671 C16A 0.074055
C16B 0.000307 C16C 1.567790E-06 C16D -0.001325
rr C16E 0.433666 C17A -10.9796 C17B 0.119691
C18A -3.66471 C18B 0.015655 C19A -1.18305iI
C19B 1.03791 C2A 1.50943 C2B 0.274289
C20A -2.68296 C20B 1.01735 C21A 0.363308
C21B 0.930152 C21C 0.042017 C22A -0.918589
C22B 1.08552 C23A -2.75748 C23B 1.34193
C23C 0.930092 C23D 0.430625 C24A -3.45059
C24B 1.19903 C25A 0.468259 C25B 0.527066
C26A -1.76919 C26B 1.00396 C26C -0.118769
r C27A -6.66783 C27B 0.011282 C27C -0.00875
C28A 80.1874 C28B 1.09189 C28C 3.14996
C29A -3.76782 C29B 0.802622 C3A 2.7822
C3B 0.246103 C30A -4.09671 C30B 1.19138rC31A-6.94273 C31B 1.25147 C32A -1.8791
G--49
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation """,
May 1983
~,
C32B 0.663336 C33A -5.44841 C33B 0.896499
C34A 0.197424 C34B 0.002957 C34C -0.629312
C35A -1.791 C35B 0.570399 C36A -41.7079 -C36B -117.753 C36C 7.69046 C36D 0.982345
C36E -10.3654 C36F 81.4021 C37A -5.65507
C37B 0.66256 C38A -189.355 C38B 1.07998
C39A -5.90571 C39B 1.17929 C4A -1.6632 !IlIJ'!;
C4B 0.672086 C40A -10.2398 C40B 2.44783
C41A -4.96533 C41B 0.261135 C42A 0.925213
C42B 0.171959 C43A -4.35327 C43B 1.71165 -
C43C -0.357641 C44A 16.699 C44B 0.063707
C44C 0.032434 C44D -40.2662 C45A 9.0322
C45B 7.29399 C45C 18.7679 C45D -21.7906
C46A -1.82278 C46B 0.907323 C47A -10.7859
C47B 1.80202 C48A -4.54331 C48B 0;917921
C49A -3.70367 C49B 0.726188 C5A 0.106732
""""C5B 0.596163 C50A 0.379274 CSOB 0.010411
C51A -48.4838 C51B 0.030347 C52A 3.21093
C52B 1.28862 C53A 4.7921 C53B 3.05381
C53C 3.83615 C53D -0.272543 CS3F 0.320275
C54A 20.3019 C54B 0.058467 C54C 0.201308
C54D 0.098856 C54E 11.6116 C55A 0.169745 I~
C55B 0.978561 C55C 0.043843 C56A -2.32004
C56B 0.949211 C57A -1.3362 C57B 1.26857
C57C 0.042129 C58A -18.3431 C58B 3.27405 ~,
C59A 4.64174 C59B 2.00986 C59C 2.67656
C59D 0.949676 C59E 1.43667 C59F 0.28503
C6A -0.757478 C6B 0.648296 C60A 0.917411
C60B 0.001215 C60C -0.630477 C61A 2.3273
C61B 1.18434 C62A 4.1444 C62B 1.5729
C62C 0.901649 C62D 0.706814 C62F 0.15724 -C63A -0.088472 C63B 0.144498 C64A 3.83502
C64B 0.204201 C64C 0.125501 C64D -0.000633
C64E -12.3188 C65A -1.78308 C65B 0.771752 -C66A 4.37672 C66B 1.79364 C66C 5.75206
C66D -0.253902 C66E -0.897404 C66F 0.148826
C67A -0.3 C67B 0.616529 C67C -0.060264
-0.123466 -30.7457 """.C68A 41.1756 C68B C68C
C68D 0.000198 C69A -1.99105 C69B 0.653562
C7A 0.908821 C7B 0.209675 C70A 4.5201
C70B 0.723184 C70C 1.22075 C70D 1.43879
C70F 0.177801 C71A -4.27825 C71B 0.016818
C71C 0.148471 C71D -0.000295 C71E 5.268135E-05
C72A 3.76867 C72B 0.011235 C72C 0.013736
C72D 0.025526 C73A -3.01609 C73B 0.830038
C73C -0.04871 C74A 4.5073 C748 0.723184
C74C 1.22075 C74D 1.43879 C74F 0.177801
C75A -2.37192 C75B 1.00465 C76A -12.5389 -,
G-50
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
C76B 0.091021 C76C 0.074783 C76D 0.083284
C76E -0.101428 C77A -2.35546 C77B 0.876998
C78A 4.34562 C78B 0.721975 C78C 1.69244
C78D 0.147584 C78E 0.580875 C78F 0.075217
C79A 3.8395 C79B 0.610186 C79D 0.960349
1 C79E -0.914682 C79F -0.043145 C8A 1.14384
C8B 0.455656 C80A -SO.1523 C80B 0.000242
C80C -15.8894 C81A -3.62853 C81B 0.982042
C82A 3.97093 C82B 1.89818 C82C 0.757899
C82D 0.604912 C82F 0.19859 C83A·-4.91663
C83C 0.139142 C83D 0.039764 C83E 3.431574E-05
C84A -26.9112 C84B 0.046802 C84C -0.05933
C84D 9.732653E-OS C85A -2.2771 C8SB 1.00835
C86A 3.77964 C86B 1.3643 C86C 2.78304
C86D -0.238086 C86E 2.13938 C86F 0.229349
C87A -2.41837 C87B 1.00842 C88A 3.89635
C88B .0.678502 C88C 9.34441 C88D -0.243981
C88E 0.244176 C88F 0.216381 C88G 4.52672
C89A 4.2468 C9A -0.629811 C9B 0.556154
C90A 18.0517 C90B 13.5415 C91A -5.36404
C91B 1.24213 C92A 4.28374 C92B 2.40477
T C92C -0.23483 C92F 0.299248 C93A -2.52615
C93B 0.965943 C94A -2.81492 C94B 1.01315
r C95A 3.9771 C95B 1.5729 C95C 0.901649
C95D 0.706814 C95F 0.15724 C96A -2.89633
C96B 1.11355 C97A -4.63823 C97B 1.26652
C98A -1.02656 C98B 0.83204 C99A -1.31799
C99B 0.817804 EXANNU 800.EXCAPIMP 0.1432
EXCAPOLD 100.EXEL1 1.EXEL2 1.
EXEL3 1.EXEL4 O.EXEL5 O.
EXEL6 O.EXLIK82 2500.EXOMCOST 0.15
EXOPSIMP 7.678 EXRLOP6 O.EXRLOP7 O.
EXRLOP8 O.EXRL1 O.EXRL2 O.
EXRL3 O.EXRL4 O.EXRL40P O.
EXRL5 1.FERT10 0.0043 FERT11 O.
FERT4 0.0004 FERT5 0.0516 FERT6 0.1436
FERT7 0.12 FERT8 0.0697 FERT9 0.0223
G1 O.G10 0.8 G11 0.8
G12 0.8 G13 0.8 G14 0.8
r G15 1.G2 0.75 G3 0.8
G4 0.8 G5 0.8 G6 0.8
G7 0.8 G8 0.8 G9 0.8
r HHRFlO 0.216 HHRF11 0.224 HHRF12 0.223
,I HHRFl3 0.262 HHRF14 0.32 HHRF15 0.466
HHRF4 0.009 HHRF5 0.036 HHRF6 0.201
HHRF7 0.234 HHRF8 0.237 HHRF9 0.215
HHRM10 0.914 HHRMll 0.943 HHRM12 0.931
G-51
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~;
May 1983
OEMF6 -0.0452 OEMF7 -0.0879 OEMF8 -0.0742
OEMF9 -0.0656 OEMM1 -0.1017 OEM!HO -0.0638
OEMM11 -0.0326 OEMM12 -0.0561 OEMK13 -0.0507
OEMM14 -0.0178 OEMM15 -0.0178 OEMM2 -0.1017 ~i
OEMK3 -0.1037 OEMM4 -0.0479 OEMK5 -0.0498
OEMM6 -0.0533 OEMM7 -0.0998 OEMM8 -0.0977
OEMM9 -0.0935 PADJ 1.5 PAD1 0.7
PAD2 0.082 PARLVFV 0.919 PARNONGF 0.2
PBLTBL 0.13 PCINDA 0.1 PCIVPY 0.65
PCNCSV 0.5 PCNCSV1 1.PCNCWS 0.25 ~
PCNC4 O.PCWS1 0.9 PCYNA1 1.01545
PC12N 0.922 PC12RN 0.833 PC13C -55.
PC39A 0.5 PC39B 0.003 PDRPIBAS 364.23 -PECIG 0.625 PERNA1 O.PERNA2 0.005
PERNA3 l.PESLT 0.4 PESLTC 0.1
PFISH1 0.97 PIDIST O.PNTGR 0.02
POPMGQ 9.443 PRINT2 O.PTOURB -4.75
PTOURD 0.4 PTOURE 1.PTOURS 0.4
PTOURT 0.2 PTRTS 0.02 PWRBASE 5473.-,PI O.P2 O.P3 O.
P4 l.P5 l.P6 l.
RCF10 0.009 RCFll 0.008 RCF12 0.009 -,
RCF13 0.007 RCF14 -0.051 RCF15 0.097
RCF4 O.RCF5 O.RCF6 -0.008
RCF7 0.026 RCF8 0.01 RCF9 0.01 -RCM10 0.013 RCMll ,....0.003 RCM12 0.009
RCM13 -0.014 RCM14 -0.013 RCM15 0.054
RCM4 O.RCM5 O.RCK6 -0.195
RCM7 -0.016 0.041 0.022 -RCM8 RCM9
ROR 0.02 RORANGRO 0.08 RORCPDEP 0.03
RORCRF 0.08 RORDISK 0.02 RORNC 0.07
RORPDF O.RORPPF 0.01 SEXDrV 0.518 -
SF1 0.99933 SF10 0.99829 SFll 0.99726
SF12 0.99646 SF13 0.99211 SF14 0.9897 .....
SF15 0.9659 SF2 0.99933 SF3 0.99993
SF4 0.99992 SF5 0.99958 SF6 0.9995
SF7 0.99935 SF8 0.99923 SF9 0.99896
SM1 0.99913 SM10 0.996 SKU 0.99501 -SM12 0.99224 SH13 0.98708 SM14 0.97938
SM15 0.93795 SM2 0.99913 SM3 0.99986
SM4 0.99957 SM5 0.99864 SM6 0.99762 """1
SM7 0.99748 SM8 0.99746 SK9 0.99812
SURINFF l.SURINFH 1.TP 30.
~I
-
G-54
r
APPENDIX H
ISE R MAP ALASKA E CONOMI C MODE L
STOCHASTIC EQUATIONS FOR
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL MODULES
T
~I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX H
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL
This appendix shows the coeffic:ients and regression statistics
for each stochastic equation in the economic and fiscal modules of
the ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model (version A83.2).
Each equation is first printed,followed by the summary
statistics and,finally,the coefficient values.Abbreviations have
the following notations:
T
T
T
T
T
NOB
NOVAR
RANGE
RSQ
CRSQ
F(i/j)
SER
DW(i)
COND(x)
SSR
COEF
ST ER
T-STAT
Number of observations
Number of variables
Range of observations
R squared
Corrected R squared
F test
Standard error of regression
Durbin Watsin test
Condition number of x matrix (for monitoring least
squares solution algorithm)
Sum of squared residuals
Coefficient value
Standard error of coefficient
T Statistic
H-l
H-2
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
~p Documentation
May 1983
-.
.....
I
.....
-
-
-
4:PDRATIO =PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(EMSP-EMSPC-l»/EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EMCNX1/
Eh91:;(-·1))+C6 7C:i:D80
NOB =19 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1962 TO 1980
RSQ -0.92621 CRSO =0.91699
SER -0.0153 SSR =3.738E-03
2.21
FC2/16)-100.420
DWCO)=1.64 CONDeX)-
COEF Vp,L.UE ST EF.:T-ST,;T
C67A -0.10202 0.04678 -2.18088
C67B 0.61653 0.15164 4.06577
C6i'C -0.06026 0.01532 --3.93418
7:PDCON =C107A+C107B*WRCNNP
T
T
T
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99987 CRSQ =
SER =1.5924 SSR =
4.95
0.99987
45.646
F(1/18)-1.43E+05
DW(O)=0.97 COND(X)-
CDEF
Cl07A
C107B
VALUE
-46.61990
0.01452
ST ER
0.91687
3.84526E-05
T-STAT
-50.84700
377.53600
15:LOG(FAGI)=C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOGCEMCNX1+EMP9)
NOB =16 NOV,;R =3 '
RANGE -1961 TO 1976
RSQ =0.99827 CRSQ =0.998
SER =0.0275 SSR =9.815E-03
72.63
F(2/13)-3741.180
DW(O)=1.55 CONDeX)-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C21A 0.36331 0.20550 1.76795
C21B 0.93015 0.03099 30.01790
C21C 0.04202 0.02088 2.01253
H-3
NOB -20
F\f~NGE =
I~:SQ =
SEF<=
20.65
16:LOGCFAGII)=C22A+C22S*LOGePI)
NOVAR =2
117'61 TO 1980
0.998 eRSO =0.99789
0.0368 SSR =2.443E-02
FUllS)=
DW (0)=
8969.980
2.43 COND(X)=
.....
-
COEF
C22A
C22B
VALUE
-0.91859
1.08552
5T ER
0.08523
0.01146
T-STAT'
-10.77750
94.70880
~,
,
19:AEX*1000 =Cl0A+Cl0B*POPC+Cl0C*(EMCNX1+EMP9)
NOB =16 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1961 TO 1976
RSQ =0.97065 CRSQ =0.96614
SER =16.2836 SSR =3447.010
20.95
F(2/13)=214.994
DW(O)=2.19 CONDCX)-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
CiOA 16.93710 34.72310 0.48777
CiOB 0.89514 0.14540 6.15625
ClOC 6.97821 1.33067 5.24415 ~
20:ATT =C28A+C28B*(EM99-EMGM)+C28C*EMC~X1 -
NOB =19 NaVAR =3
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.99476 CRSQ =0.9941
SER =4.5696 SSR =334.103
7.27
COEF VALUE ST ER
C28A 80.18740 3.35025
C28B 1.09189 0.03070
C28C 3.14996 0.27770
H-4
F(2/16)=1518.330
DWeO)=2.81 COND(X)-
T-ST?H
23.93470
35.56360
11.34320
-
-
-
T
21:LOGeATD/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72
26:LOGCRTISCA2)=C24A+C24B*LOGCATI.TT)
NOB =16 NaVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1976
RSQ =0.97107 CRSa =
SER =0.0985 SSR =
6.20
0.969
0.136
.FC1/14)-469.867
DWCO)=1.57 CONDeX)-
COEF
C24A
C24B
VALUE
-3.45059
1.19903
ST ER .
0.07834
0.05532
T-STAT
-44.04770
21.67630
30:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISC(-1)+C25B*RTISC
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.97803 CRSa =0.97674
SER =,8.8000 SSR =1316.490
7.19
FC1/17)-756.726
DWeO)=2.34 CONDeX)-
I":'"
I
COEF
C251;
C25B
VALUE
0.46826
0.52707
ST ER
0.09575
0.08996·
H-5
T-STAT
4.89051
5.85858
31:RTISCP =C105A+Cl05B*PI8fCl05C*RTISC .....
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99238 eRSQ =0.99148
SER =5.7689 SSR =565.767'
5.40
F(2/17)-1106.550
DWeO)=2.45 CONDeX)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
Cl05A 1.01698 2.18267 0.46593
Cl05B 0.01322 0.00119 11.07110
Cl05C 0.73757 0.03581 20.59760
32:LOGeRTPIF/ATT)=C26AfC26B*LOGeFAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATTfRTISLOS/
ATT)fC26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATTfRTISLOSIATT)
NOB =19 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.99351 CRSQ =0.9927
SER =0.0499 SSR =3.986E-02
14.47
F(2/16)-1225.390
DW(O)=1.57 CONDeX)-
-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C26A -1.76919 0.08018 -22.06600
C26B 1.00396 0.03795 26.45370
C26C -0.11877 0.03094 -3.83920
33:DPIRES =C27AfC27B*PI3fC27C*WSCNP
-
NDB -.20
I~:{:'ING[-
1~:SI]-
:3EF~=
COEF
NOVtlF.:=3
1961 TO 1980
0.97549 eRSO -
2.5946 SSR =
\,JALUE
0.97261
11-4.447
ST U{
Fe2/17)-
DW (0)==
T--STAT
338.350
1.26 CONDeX)---I~..
[:271~l
C2/'B
C27[:
-6.05350
0.01107
--0.00870
1.01043
4.32765E-O·l
0.00239
H-6
-5.99103
~25 t 5842()
34;LOG (r:L)::::C::;'7'~'d'C39B:t;LOG (XX98-XXF'9)
NOE-::;;;17
r\(ii)CiE -
F(::;Q -
::;EF:==
NO\.JAR ==2
1961 TO 1977
0.97163 CRSQ -
0.0722 SSR ::::
0.96974
7.817E--02
FU/15)-
DW CO)==
513.808
0.85 COND(X)-4'
COEF
C39A
C3':iB
-6.96721
1.32915
ST ER
0.42986
0.05864
T--ST{H
-16.20800
22.66700
35:LOG(GR)::::C40A+C40B*LOG(XX98)
iWD -17
W~i~GE .-
F:SQ ::::
:3ER ::::
COEF
NOVAR ==2
1961 TO 1977
0.9871 CRSQ ::::
0.101B SSR =
VALUE
0.98624
0.155
ST ER
FU/15)-
DW (0)::::
T-STAT
1147.740
1.33 COND(X)-48
38:LOGCRTBS2*10**3/BL(-1»-C29A+C29B*LOGCGTR(-1)*10**3/BLC-l»
NOB =16 NOVAR ::::2
RANGE =1962 TO 1977
RSQ =0.88051 CRSa =
SER::::0.1492 SSR =
50.09
T
T
C40A
C40E<
COEF
C29A
C29B
-12.50600.
2.76494
VALUE
-3.76782
0.80262
0.60181
0.08161
0.87198
0.311
ST ER
0.93422
0.07902
H-7
-20.78070
33.87790
F(1/14)=103.166
DWCO)=1.50 CONDeX)=
T-ST{~T
-4.03314
10.15700
40:LOG (RTCS 1 *1 OO/PDF<P I):=C43A+C43C>r;r~64.65+C43B*LDG (niP9 (-1 )+EViCN (-1 ""'"
)+EMM9(-I)+EMT9(-I)+EMCM(-I)+EMPU(-1»
NOB ~20 NDVAR =3
RANGE ~1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96592 CRSQ =
SER =0.1507 SSR =
1.8.94
0.96191
0.386
F(2/1.7)=240.894
DWeO)=1.65 COND(X)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C43A -4.35327 0.31079 -14.00690 "'""C43C -0.35764 0.12116 -2.951.91.
C43B 1.71165 0.08980 j.9.06040
42:TPTV -C38A+C38B*POP
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.97676 CRSQ=0.97539
SER =10.4952 SSR =1872.550
10.73
Fel/17)=714.451
DW(O)=1.12 CONDeX)=
COEF
C38A
C38B
VALUE
-189.35500
1.07998
ST ER
13.03360
0.04040
T-STAT
-14.52820
26.72920
43:LOG(AHG)=C37A+C37B*LOG(PR.PI)
NOB =11 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1966 TO 1976
RSQ =0.7315 CRSQ =0.70166
SER =0.0829 5SR =6.186E-02
86.02
F(1/9)=24.519
DW(O)=1.51 COND(X)=
COEF
C37A
C37B
VALUE
-5.65507
0.66256
5T ER
1.07530
0.13381
H-8
T-5TAT
-5.25904
4.95165
-
-.
45:LOG(RTMF)=C46A+C46BtLOG(THG)
NOB =11 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1966 TO 1976
RSQ =0.98679 CRSQ =0.98532
SER =0.0479 SSR =2.061E-02
22.67
F(1/9)=672.222
DW(O)=0.86 CONDeX)=
COEF
C46A
C46B,
VALUE
-1.82278
0.90732
ST ER
0.16384
0.03500
T-STAT
-11.12510
25.92720
46:·LOG(RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1»
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.97077 CRSQ =
SER =0.1373 SSR =
32.26
0.96905
0.320
F(1/17)-564.507
DWeO)=0.55 COND(X)=
COEF
C47A
C47B
VALUE
-10.78590
1.80202
ST ER
0.50842
0.07584
T-STAT
-21.21440
23.75930
47:LOG(RTAS)='C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPl(-1»
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.98924 CRSQ =0.98861
SER =0.0422 SSR =3.024£-02
31.86
F(1/17)=1563.080
DW(O)=1.35 COND(X)=
COEF
C48A
C48B
VALUE
-4.54331
0.91792
ST ER
0.15432
0.02322
H-9
T-STAT
-29.44060
39.53530
48:LOG(RTCIS)=C49A+C49B*LOGCR.DPIC-1»
-
-
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.98 CRSQ =0.97882
SER =0.0457 SSR =3.552E-02
31.86
F(1/17)=832.910
DWCO)=2.39 CONDeX)=-
COEF
C49A
C49B
VALUE
-3.70367
0.72619
ST ER
0.16725
0.02516
T-STAT
-22.14490
28.85990
49:RTSS =IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50Bt(EM99-EMGM)
NOB =19
F.:ANGE =
F-:SQ ==
SEF=~=
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1980
0.97716 CRSQ =
0.1108 SSR ==
0.97582
0.209
F(/17)-
[r!,J(0)==
727 t 3'64
1.29 CONDeX)-
VALUECOEF
CSOA
C50E:
-0.31682
0.01545
ST ER
0.07375
5.72778E-04
T--ST(,T
-4+29562
26.96970 -
52:LOGCROFAS)=C30A+C30B*LOG(TPTV(-1»
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.96111 CRSQ =
SER =0.1060 SSR =
23.67
0.95882
0.191
F(1/17)=420.083
DWeO)==1.10 CONDeX)-
-
-
COEF
C30A
C308
VALUE
-4.09671
1.19138
ST ER
0.28830
0.05813
H-IO
T-STAT
-14.20960
20.49580
-.
53:LOG(ROFOS)=C33A+C33B:t.LOG(F'I3(-1»
NOB =19
RAt-WE =
RSQ =
SER =
22.57
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1980
0.98893 CRSQ =0.98828
0.0651 SSR =7.199E-02
F(/17)=
DW(O)=1519.150
1.73 CONDeX)=
COEF
C33A
C33B
VALUE
-5.44841
0.89650
ST ER
0.16877
0.02300
T-STAT
-32.28220
38.97610
56:LOG(RMIS)=C35A+C35B*LOG(PI3(-1»
NOB -17 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1964,1968 TO 1981
PSQ =0.59386 CRSQ =0.56678
SER =0.3427 SSR =1.761
r(1/i5)=21.933
DWel)=0.93 CONDeX)-21.
T
COEF
C35A
C35B.
VALUE
-1.79100
_0.57040
ST ER
0.91547
0.12180
T-STAT
-1.95638
4.68325
72 :LOG (RSFFS)=C58A+C58B*LOG (POP (-1»)•
NOB =18 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1963 TO 1980
RSQ =0.9391 CKSQ =
SER =0.1580 SSR =
64.47
0.93529
0.399
F(1/16)-246.718
DW(O)=0.98 CONDeX)=
COEF
C58A
C58B
VALUE
-18.34310
3.27405
ST Ef(
1.20056
0.20844
H-ll
T-STAT
-15.27880
15.70730
95:LOGCEXJUS4)=C20A+C20B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99519 CRSQ =0.99493
SER =0.0713 SSR =9.162E-02
12.06
FCl/18)=3726.980
DWeO)=1.14 CONDeX)=
-
-
-
96:LOGCEXPPS4)=C91A+C91B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98271 CRSQ =
SER =0.1662 SSR =
12.06
CGEF
C20A
C20B
CGEF
C91A
C91B
VALUE
-2.68296
1.01735
VALUE
-5.36404
1.24213
ST ER
0.09689
0.01666
0.98175
0.497
ST ER
0.22575
0.03883
T-STAT
-27.69200
61.04880
Fel/18)-1023.320
DWCO)=1.05 CONDeX)=
-23.76100
31.98930
-
-
-
-
-
-
97:LOGCEXNRS4)=C93A+C93B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =?
RANGE -1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99079 CRSQ =
SER =0.0940 SSR =
12.06
0.99028
0.159
F(1/18)-1936.610
DWCO)=0.81 CONDeX)-
COEF
C93A
C93B
VALUE
-2.52615
0.96594
ST ER
0.12761
0.02195
H-12
T-ST{iT
-19.79540
44.00690 ..
98:LOG(EXHES4)=C94A+C94B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.97559 CRSO =
SER =0.1617 SSR =
12.06
0.97423
0.471
F(1/18)-719.325
DW(O)=0.45 CONDeX)-
COEF
C94A
C94B
VALUE
-2.81492
1.01315
ST ER
0.21962
0.03778
T-STAT
-12.81710
26.82020
99:LOGeEXSSS4)=C96A+C96B*LOGeEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98987 CRSO =
SER =0.1137 SSR =
12.06
0.9893
0.233
F(1/18)=1758.210
DW(O)=1.07 CONDeX)=
r
I
COEF
C96A
C96B
VALUE
-2.89633
1.11355
5T ER
0.15440
0.02656
T-STAT
-18.75900
41.93110
100:LOGeEXEDS4)=C19A+C19B*LOG(EXOP5)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSa =0.99519 CRSa =0.99492
SER =0.0728 SSR =9.551E-02
12.06
F(1/18)=3721.010
DWCO)=1.12 CONDCX)-
COEF
C19A
C19B
VALUE
-1.18305
1.03791
ST ER
0.09892.
0.01701
B-13
T-STAT
-11.95930
60.99980
101:LOGCEXCDS4)=C97A+C97B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
l:;:ft1~GE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98103 CRSQ =
SER =0.1777 SSR =
12.06
0.97997
0.569
FCl/18)=930.686
DWeO)=1.50 CONDCX)=
-COEF
C97A
C97B
VALUE
-4.63823
1.26652
ST ER
0.24137
0.04152
T-STAT
-19.21660
30.50710
102:LOGCEXTRS4)=C98A+C98B*LOGCEXOPS)
..
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99756 CRSQ =0.99743
SER =0.0415 SSR =3.098E-02
12.06
F(1/18)=7372.610
DWeO)=1.37 CONDeX)=
~J
-
-
COEF
C98A
C98B
VALUE
-1.02656
0.83204
ST ER
0.05634
0.00969
T-ST{~T
-18.22140
85.86340
103:LOG(EXGGS4)=C99A+C99B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NaVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.91646 CRSQ =
SER =0.2492 SSR =
12.06
0.91182
1.117
Fe1/18)-197.461
DWCO)=1.73 CONDeX)=
-
COEF
C99A
C'7'9B
VALUE
-1.31799
0.81780
ST ER
0.33836
0.05820
H-14
T-STAT
-3.89527
14.05200
120:EXPRCDS ~C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.84914 CRSQ =
SER =1.0883 SSR =
1.96
0.84076
21.320
F(1/18)=101.318
DW(O)=1.05 COND(X)=
COEF
C7A
C7B
VALUE
0.90882
0.20968
ST ER
0.30060
0.02083
T-STAT
3.02337
10.06570
121:EXPREDSl =C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT
NOB =17 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1965 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98143 CRSQ =
SER =1.5340 SSR =
4.64
0.97878
32.945
F(2/14)=369.990
DW(O)=1.80 CONDeX)=
'J COEF VALUE ST ER T-STf-lT
CiA 0.42666 0.89349 0.47752
C1B 0.05018 0.00503 9.97479·r C1C 0.37105 0.01375 26.98410
122 :EXPRSSS =C2A+C2B*EXSSS
NOB =20
I~ANGE ~
RSQ =
SER =
T
i
.1
2.62
COEF
C2A
C2B
NaVAR =2
1962 TO 1981
0.97794 CRSQ =
2.0905 SSR =
VALUE
1.50943
0.27429
0.97671
78.666
ST ER
0.70182
0.00971
H-15
797.781
0.74 COND(X)-
F(118)=
DW (0)=
T-STAT
2.15075.
28.24500
123:EXPRUA =C32A+C32B*EXUA
NOB =11 NOVAR = 2
RANGE =1971 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96844 CRSQ =0.96493
SER =6.8793 SSR =425.920
3.61
F(1/9)=276.161
DW(O)=1.40 COND(X)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
~C32A -1.87910 4.03380 -0.46584
C32B 0.66334 0.03992 16.6:L810 -,
12~:EXPRHES =C3A+C3B:+::EXHES
NOB =20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96456 CRSQ =
SER =1.6653 SSR =
2.37
0.96259
49.918
F(1/18)=489.935
DW(O)=1.05 COND(X)-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STf.lT
C3A 2.78220 0.51996 5.35074
C3B 0.24610 0.01112 22.13450 -
125:EXPRNRS =C4A+C4B*EXNRS
2.57
rWB =20
RANGE =
I:;;SQ =
SER=
COEF
C4A
C4B
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1981
0.99589 CRSQ =
1.2941 SSR =
VALUE
-1.66320
0.67209
0.99567
30.143
ST ER
0.42822
0.01017
H-16
F(1/i8)=4366.430
DW(O)=0.75 CONDeX)=
-3.88402
66.07890
-
126:EXPRPPS =C5A+C5B*EXPPS
NOB·:20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ -0.99484 CRSQ =
SER =0.4924 SSR =
2.41
0.99455
4.363
Fel/18)=3471.220
DWeO)=1.51 CONDeX)-
COEF
CSA
C5B
VALUE
0.10673
0.59616
ST ER
0.15566
0.01012
T-STAT
0.68568
58.91700
127:EXPRGGS =C8A+C8B*EXGGS
NOB =20 NaVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.95541 CRSQ =0.95293
SER =3.5722 SSR =229.688
2.73
Fel/18)-385.656
DWeO)=0.87 CONDeX)=
COEF
C8A
C8B
VALUE
1.14384
0.45566
ST ER
1.23748
0.02320
T-STAT
0.92433
·19.63810
128:EXPRJUS =C6A+C6B*EXJUS
NOB =20 NaVAR =2 0
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99766 CRSQ =
SER =1.0478 SSR =
2.66
0.99753
19.763
r(1/18)-7683.690
DWeO)=0.62 CONDeX)=
COEF
C6A
C6B
VALLIE
-0.75748
0.64830
ST ER
0.35603
0.00740
H-17
T-STAT
-2.12758
87.65660
129:EXPRTRS =C9A+C9B*EXTRS
-
2.97
NOB =20
RM~GE =
r,SQ -
SEF\==
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1981
0.99855 CRSQ =
0.9717 SSR =
0.99847
16.995
F(1/18)-1.24E+04
DW(O)=0.85 COND(X)=
.....
-
COEF
C9A
C9B
VALUE
-0.62981
0.55°615
ST ER
0.35909
0.00499
T-ST~H
-1.75393
111.37100
132:LOGCWSGS)=C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75
COEF W1LUE ST ER T-STAT
C55{~0.16975 0.06303 2.69326
C55B 0.97856 0.01264 .77.39:L90
C55C 0.04384 0.03509 1.24937
NOB =16 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSQ ==0.99791 CRSQ =0.99759
SER ==0.0335 SSR ==1.456E-02
15.49
134:EXINREC ==C17AfC17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)
NOB ==11 NOVA R =2'
RANGE -1971 TO 1981
RSQ -0.87016 CRSQ =0.85573
SER =14.4962 SSR =1891.270
4.21
FC2/13)-3104.200
DW(O)=2.17 CONDCX)-
FC1/9)==60.316
DWCO)==1.88 CONDCX)=
-
-
-
.....
-
-
COEF
e17A
C17B
VALUE
-10.97960
0.11969
ST ER
9.71360
0.01541
H-18
T-STAT
-1.13033
7.76636
-
146:XXVHY =C41A+C41B*eEXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1»
NOB =12 NOVAR =2
RANGE ==1964 TO 1975
RSQ -0.78763 CRSQ ==0.7664
SER ==5.8369 SSR ==340.691
6.91
F(1/10)=37.0S8
DW(O)=1.47 COND(X)-
COEF
C41A
C41B
VALUE
-4.96533
0.26113
ST ER
5.94174
0.04288
T-STAT
-0.83567
6.08998
147:XXVNHY ==C42A+C42B*CEXNHYCPC-1)+EXSPCAPC-1)-EXCAPFR(-2)+EXNHYCP+
EXSPCAP-EXCAPFR(-1»
3.69
r~OB ==11
RANGE ==
;:;:5Q =
SER =
COEF
NOVAR =2
1965 TO 1975
0.86994 CRSO ==
3.5535 SSR =
VALUE
0.85549
113.646
ST ER
F(1/9)==
DWCO)=
T-STAT
60.201
1.94 COND(X)-
C42A
C42B
0.92521
0.17196
2.11974
0.02216
0.43648
7.75893
177:LOG(LPTB1)==C57A+C57B*LOGCPI3(-1»+C57C*D71.00
NOB ==19 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1963 TO 1981
RSQ ==0.9973 CRSQ ==0.99696
SER ==0.0490 SSR =3.844E-02
45.64
F(2/16)-2954.450
DWCO)==2.40 CONDeX)=
COEF
C57A
C57B
C57C
VALUE
-1.33620
1.26857
0.04213
ST ER
0.20928
0.03084
0.04169
H-lq
-6.38484
41.13980
1.01042
,oWB =19
RAlo~GE =
RSQ =
SER =
F(/17)=
DW(O)=
184:RLPTl =C18AfC18B*LPTB
NOVAR =2
1963 TO 19B1
0.99145 CRSQ =
6.1860 SSR =
2.73
0.99095
650.535
1971.900
1.50 COND(X)=
-
-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STfiT
C1BA
C1BB
-3.66471
0.01566
2.19556
3.52547E-04
-1.66914
44.40600 -
-
186:LOG(RLOT*1000/POP(-1»==C31A+C31B*LOGCPI(-1)*1000/POP(-1»-
32.26
NOB =20
RANGE -
RSQ ==
SER =
NOVAR ==2
1962 TO 1981
0.98831 CRSQ ==
0.0752 SSR =
0.98767
0.102
F(1/18)==
DW(O)=1522.330
1.74 COND(X)==-
NOB =20
RANGE =
RSQ :=
SERo=
2.92
F(1/18)=
[Iv)(0)==
188t RLTVS4 =C63AfC63B*RTVS
NO'-.JAF~=2
1962 TO 1981 0
0.85998 CRSQ =
0.2441 SSR
0.85221
1.073
110.557
2.39 COND(X)-
-
-
-
COEF
C63A
C63B
VALUE
-0.08847
0.14450
ST ER
0.08911
0.01374
H-20
T-STAT
-0.99289
10.51460 -
199:RLTEF4 =C36AfC36F*D81.00fD71.00*C36BfBIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD
NOB =19 NOVAR =5
RANGE -1963 TO 1981
RSQ =0.9957 CRSQ -0.99448
SER =5.1635 SSR =373.270
33.96
F(4/14)-811.379
DW(O)=2.37 [ONDeX)-
COEF r...IALUE ST ER T-STt-iT
c""'/....-41.70790 13,.12910 -3.17675,-,OH
C36F 81.40210 7.04958 11.54710
C36B -117.75300 9.80848 -12.00520
C36C 7.69046 0.40097 19.17960
C36D 0.98234 0.20856 4.71003
216:ELED1 =C11A+CI1B*PI3(-1)
NOB =17 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1965 TO 1981
RSQ =0.8627 CRSQ =0.85354
SER =14.7509 SSR =3263.850
3.52
F(1/15)=94.246
DW(O)=2.34 CONDeX)=
COEF
CllA
C11B
VALUE
-4.74734
0.02493
ST ER
6.80070
0.00257
H-21
T-STAT
-0.69807
9.70803
-
-
218:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDLC-l)+C14B*G080NDL(-1)
_GOEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C14A -0.88561 11.03360 -0.08026
C14C -0.11048 0.02727 -4.05157
C148 0.17366 0.01804 9.62580
NOB =12 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1970 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96021 CRSQ =0.95137
SER =11.4753 SSR =1185.150
6.68
FC2/9)=108.607
DWeO)=2.52 CONDeX)=
""'"
219:ELNED1/PDRPI =C16A+C16E*D81.00+C16D*R.DPI8N(-1)+C16B*D71.00*
R.DPI8N(-1)+C16C*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
F(4/12)=242.263
DW(O)=2.37 COND(X)=
NOVAR =5
1965 TO 1981
0.98777 CRSQ =0.98369
0.0559 SSR =3.748E-02
NOB =17
1:(ANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
69.85
COEF VALUE ST ER T-ST~iT -
C16A
C16E
C16D
Cl6B
C16C
0.07405
0.43367
-0.00132
3.07177E-04
1.56779E-06
0.08404
0.06199
3.58569E-04
7.31536E-05
2.67099E-07
0.88121
6.99545
-3.69483
4.19908
5.86969
-
H-22
1 225:ELEDCP =C15A+C15B*ELED
NOB =20 NaVAR =2
RANGE -1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.82638 CRSQ -0.81674
SER =16.3857 SSR =4832.850
2.79
Fe1/18)=85.675
DWeO)=1.13 CONDeX)=
COEF
e15A
C15B
VALUE
-8.30542
0.29367
ST ER
5.77502
0.03173
T-STAT
-1.43816
9.25607
226:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*eEL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
Ii
I
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98926 CRSQ =0.98866
SER =13.2365 SSR =3153.680
2.61
FC1/18)=1657.480
DWeO)=2.91 CONDeX)=
COEF
C12A
C12B
VALUE
7.83103
0.52010
ST ER
4.42589
0.01278
T-STAT
1.76937
40.71210
227:WSGL -C13A+C13C*D81.00+C13B*CELPERS+ELPERSC-1»
NOB =18 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1963 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99238 CRSQ =0.99136
SER =13.0148 SSR =2540.770
1.0E+75
Fe2/15)=976.625
DWeO)=1.82 CONDeX)=
COEF VAl_UE ST EF:T-STAT
C131;-8.31784 4.89396 -1.69961
C13C 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
C13E>0.68222 0.01544 44.19560
H-23
232:PlDlR =C51A+C51B*(DPl+DPle-l)+DPl(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPl(-4»
NOB =16 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1965 TO 1980
RSQ =0.9903 CRSQ =0.98961
SER =15.8473 SSR =3515.920
3.59
F(1/14)=1429.870
DW(O)=1.03 CONDeX)=
COEF
C51A
C51B
VALUE
-48.48380
0.03035
ST ER
7.66457
8.02538E-04
T-STAT
-6.32570
37.81360
234:PITRAN/PDRPI =C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI -
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.93435 CRSQ =
SER =0.1370 SSR =
30.57
0.92663
0.319
F(2/17)-120.979
DWeO)=0.74 CONDeX)=-
COEF
C34A
C34B
C34C
VALUE
0.19742
0.00296
-0.62931
ST ER
0.43778
0.00112
0.13954
T-STAT
0.45096
2.63731
-4.50993
-
235:PIOll =C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-1)-
NOB =20 NOVAR =4
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99191 CRSQ =0.99039
SER =9.9931 SSR =1597.790
16.29
F(3/16)=653.632
DWeO)=2.14 CONDeX)=
-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C44A 16.69900 17.34240 0.96290 -
C44D -40.26620 13.24440 -3.04023
C44B 0.06371 0.00422 15.10940
C44C 0.03243 0.01169 2.77496
H-24
236:PISSC =Cl06A+Cl06B*eWS98-WSCNP)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99259 CRSQ =0.99218
SER =7.7477 SSR:::1080.480
3.20
F(1/18)-2411.940
DW(O):::1.07 CONDeX)=
r COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
-19.35340 3.03884 -6.36868C106A
Cl06B 0.06951 0.00142 49.11140
237:PIPR01*100/PDRPI =C45A+C45B*EMPR01+C45C*D61.66+C45D*D79
NOB =19
I~ANGE =
RSG :::
SER =
11.40
NOIJAR :::4
1961 TO 15'79
0.88532 CRSQ =
5.0034 SSR =0.86239
375.508
F(3/15)-
DI"!(0)=
38.601
1.23 CONDeX)=
T COEF IJALl)E ST ER T-STAT
C45A 9.03220 6.29946 1.43380
C45B 7.29399 0.92964 7.84607
C45C 18.76790 5.32460 3.52474
C45D -21.79060 5.95788 -3.65745
246:F'I R ~l II J *1 00 I F'DF<PI =C 1 03 A-:-C 1 03 E:*E j'1 CN·)(1 +C 1 03 C)/<E 7'197
NOB =20 NOVAR :::3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.98502 CRSQ =0098326
SER =12.6270 SSR:::2710.510
t)+78
F(2/17)-559.021
DWeO)-2.15 COND(X)-
T COEF
Cl03A
Cl03B
Cl03C
'H~LlJE
-20.34940
15.88·170
0.71219
5T EF:
8.55305
0.72688
0.08147
H-25
T--ST~;T
-2.37'7'19
21~85320
8.74166
262:XXCN8 =C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54C*R.DPI8X+C54D*R.DPI8X(-1)+C54E*
[164.65
""'"
NOB =19 NOVAR =5
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.96235 CRSQ =0.95159
SER =9.5354 SSR =1272.930
8.72
F(4/14)-89.453
DW(O)=2.08 CONDeX)=-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C54A 20.30190 7.65963 2.65051
C54B 0.05847 0.00843 6.93728
C54C 0.20131 0.03229 6.23466
C54[1 0.09886 0.03467 2.85108
C54E 11.61160 7.67436 1.51304
-
264:LOGeEMCN1)=C56A+C56B*LOGeXXCN1)
NOB =21
F:~~I~GE =
I;:SQ =
SER =.
23.35
COEF
C56A
C56B
rWVAR =2
1961 TO 1981
0.95001 CRSQ =
0.0903 SSR =
VALUE
-2.32004
0.94921
0.7'4738
0.155
ST ER
0.23045
0.04995
H-26
F(1/19)-361.072
DWeO)=0.47 COND(X)-
T-STAT
-10.06740
19.00170
-
268:LOG(WRCNNP/PDRPI)=C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59BtLOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C59C*LOGC1+EMCNRT)+C59D*LOG(1fEMCNRTC-1»+C59E*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-2»
rr
!
rr,
NOB =20 NOVAR =6
I~:('jf·H3 E =1 7'61 TO 1 980
RSQ -0.93976 CRSQ -0.91825
SER -0.0431 SSR =2.602E--02
6.00
FCS/14)-43.680
DWCO)=1.38 CONDCX)-
T
!
r
I
COEF
C59A
C59F
C59B
C59C
C59[1
C5?E
VALUE ST EF,T-STAT
4.64174 0.01229 377.54500
0.28503 0.04745 6.()O643
2.00986 0.24339 8.25779
2.67656 0.68143 3.92787
0.94968 0.93281 1.01808
1.43667 0.69160 2.07730
273:LOGCXXP9)-C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9)
NOB =19
RANGE =
RSQ =
SER =T
!3.41
COEF
NOVAR =2
1961 TO 1979
0.89638 CRSQ =
0.2534 SSR =
VALUE
0.89028
1.092
ST ER
FCl/17)=
DW(O)=
T-STAT
147.058
0.80 COND(X)=
T
T
C52A
C52B
3.21093 •
1.28862
0.10769
0.10626
H-27
29.81700
12.1.2650
274:LOGCWRP9/PDRPI)=C53AfC53FtD.80DEC6fC53DtD61.76+C53BtLOGCWEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C53CtLOG(1fEMCNRT)-
NOB =20 NOVAR =5
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSG -0.95288 CRSG -0.94032
SER -0.0546 SSR =4.480E-02
5.92
F(4/15)-75.835
DWCO)=1.53 CONDeX)-
COEF ,){iLUE ST ER T-STAT
C53Pi 4.79210 0.03468 138.17800
C53F 0.32028 0.06966 4.59761
C53D -0.27254 0.03549 -,,7.678<t9
C53£<3.05381 0.31010 9.84789
C53C 3.83615 0.48142 7.96847
276:EMMO -C60AtC60BtR.DPI8NfC60C*D61.77
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSG =0.98062 CRSG -
SER ~0.0926 SSR =
10.73
0.9;'834
0.146
F(2/17)-430.081
DWCO)=0.70 CONDeX)-
~COEF VAL.UE ST ER T-STi:":)T
C6()A 0.'7'1741 0.10770 8.51843
C60[:0.00122 6.69159E-05 18.16440 ~,
C60C -,0.63048 0.06982 -,,9.03053
278:LOGeXXM91)=C61AfC61B*LOGCEMM91)
NOB =19 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1961 TO 1979
RSG =0.88816 CRSQ -
SER ~0.1177 SSR =
1.5.;"5'7
0.88158
0.235
Fel/17)-135.004
DWeO)=0.92 CONDCX)_-
COEF 'J?)LUE ST ER T-ST{~T llIJI!II!!!
C61r;2.32;'30 0.21101 11 .02960C61.F:1 •1.8434 0.10193 1.1..61860 -
-H-28.
287:XX TNT =C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-1)+C64C*R.DPI8N+
C64E*[l71.73
356.33400
3.39060
6.73918
1.7~)817
1.36914
F(4/1S)-17.050
DWeO)=1.50 CONDeX)_
F(4/14)-634.976
DW(O)-2.39 CONDeX)_
ST ER
0.01161
0.04638
0.23340
0.51283
0.51625
4.13658
0.15724
1.57290
0.90165
0,,706.31
282;LOGCWRM9A9/PDRPI)=C62AfC62F%D.SODEC6fC62B*LOGeWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C62C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C62DtLOG(1+EMCNRTe-l»
NOB =20 NOVAR =5
RANGE =1961 TO 1980'
RSQ -0.81971 eRSQ =0.77163
SER =0.0421 SSR =2.663E-02
(:62F
f:62B
COEF
C62C
C62D
H-29
NOB =19 NOVAR =5
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ -0.99452 eRSQ =0.99295
SER =4.4006 SSR =271.116
7.46
CGET VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C64A 3.83502 .3.02693 1.26696
C64B 0.20420 0.02259 9.03747
C64D -6.32537E-04 9.93881£-05 -6.36431
C,£4C 0.12550 0.00335 37.48510C64E-12.31880 2.83003 -4.35288
-[
288:LOG(EMTNT)=C65AfC65B*LOG(XXTNT)
NOB =20 NOVAR -2
F:ril~C-;E --1'7'61 TO 1980
RS(~~":0.7'8902
::;ER::.:0.0368
21.86
CRSQ -0.98841
SSF\==2.438E-02
rel/1S)-1621.080
DWeO)=0.93 CONDeX)-
~
COEF VtlLUE 5T ER T-ST{H
C651~-1 t7830S 0.09015 --:1.9.7/'S-'80
(:65B 0.77175 0.01917 40.26220 ~
293:LOGeWRT9/PDRPI)=C66AfC66F*D.80DEC6+C66D*D61.76+C66B*LOGeWEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C66C*lOG(lfEMCNRT)+C66E*LOGe1+EMCNRT(-1»-
NO')AF.:=6
1961 TO 1980
i~OE:==20
F~{:d~C:JE -
RSQ .-
S:3F:=2.680E-02:3EF:-
8('85
0.96202
0.0438
CF\SQ ::.:0.94846 F(S/14)-
DLH 0)-
70.7'23
1.99 CONDeX)-
COEF 5T EF:1-5T,:;,T -
C~,6A
U:,c'.iF
C66[1
C66B
C66C
4.37672
0.14883
-0.25390
1.79364
5.75206
-0.8'7'7'fO
0.03632
0.06076
0.03755
0.24866
0.63002
0.70836
H-30
1.20.51600
:2.449·42
-6.761~50
7.21334
9.1299S.'
--1 .266GB
"""'I
....
1
295:XXCM =C68A+C68B*R.DPI8NC-l)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*WEALTH(-1)*POpe-1)
NOB =16 NOVAR =4
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSG =0.98863 CRSQ =
SER =6.5512 SSR =
57.55
0.98579
515.018
F(3/12)-
DWC 0)==
347.875
1.68 COND(X)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C68A 41.17560 15.84540 2.59858
C68El -0.12347 0.03746 -3.29566
C68C -30.74570 8.13001 -3.78175
C68D 1.98004E-04 3.12176E-05 6.34269
296:LOG(EMCM)=C69A+C69B*LOGeXXCM)
NOB ==20
F.;pdWE -
F<=;L~:=
!:3ER :=:
NOVAF.;==2
1961 TO 1980
0.95761 CR50 =0.95525
0.0696 SSR =8.708E-02
F(1/:L8)....
DWeO)==0.66 CONDeX)-
COEF
C69A
C6'7'B
,)ALUE
-1.99105
0.65356
5T ER
0.14562
0.03241
T-'ST(~T
-13.67290
20.1.t,380
297:LOGeWRCMPU/PDRPI)=C70AfC70F*D.80DEC6fC70BtLOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C70C*LOG(1+EMCNRTC-2»fC70D*LOGelfEMCNRTC-l»
NOB ==20 NOVAR ==5
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.77282 CRSQ =0.71224
SER =0.0479 SSR =3.444£-02
3.02
F(4/15)-12.757
DWeO)==1.65 CONDeX)==
-II COEF VALUE 5T ER T'-STATI
r C7()A 4.53206 0.01306 347.01400
C70F'0.17780 0.05268 7 -.....~-...C\~t..j/...)...Ja
C70B 0.72318 0.26940 2.684"'15
C70C 1.22075 0.57'194 2.06229
C7()[1 1.43879 0.58295 2.4t,S13
~
:1 H-31II
-
299:XXPU -C72A+C72BtR.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+C72D*R.DF'I8N(-2)
NOB ==18 NOVAR ==4
RANGE -1963 TO 1980
RSQ ==0.99072 CRSD ==
SER ==1.4839 SSR =:
49.68
0.98873
30.828
F(3/14)==497.984
DWeO)==2.67 CONDex)==
COEr VALUE 5T ER T-STHT -
C72A 3.76867 1.07636 3.50130
C72B 0.01123 0.00744 1.50922
C72C 0.01374 0.00599 2.29492
C72D 0.02553 0.00705 3.61830
~
300:LOGCEMPU)==C73A+C73C*PIPEC-1)fC73B*LOG(XXPU)
NOB ==20
fa~NGE -.
F~E:Q ::;;
3EF(=:
NO'"rl~R =3
1961 TO 1980
0.9914 CRSQ ==0.99039
0.0366 SSR =2.274E-02
rC2/17)==
[It..J(O)==
979.867
1.62 CONII(X)=
-
COEF
C731~
C73C
C73E:
VALUE
-3.01<S09
-0.04871
0.83004
ST ER
0.06610
0.03876
0.01923
T-srriT
-45.62580
--1.25677
43.15370 -
301:LOGCWRCMF'U/PDRPI)==C74A+C74FtD.80DEC6+C74B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C74C~LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOGC1+EMCNRT(-1»)-
NOl.)AR =5
1(?61 TO 1980
NOB :::20
F:AiWE -
F~SQ -
:3EFi -
COEF
()+"?71 2B2
0.()47'7
\,..'ALUE
CF~SQ ==0.71224
SSP ==3.444E-02
ST ER
F(.4/15)-
DW (0):;;:
T-STAT
1.65
12.757
car·m (X)-
C7·4li
C74F
C74C
C74fi
4+53206
0.:1.7780
0.72318
1,22075
1.43879
0.01306
0 ..05268
0.26940
0.5'7'194
Of58295
347.01·400
3.37538
2.68445
2.0622Sl
2.46813
H-3-=--2=--~
303:XXDW =C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-1)*R.DPI8X+
C71E*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
NOB =16 NOVAR =5
RANGE =1965 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99494 CRSQ =
SER =2.6783 SSR =
63.22
0.9931
78.907
F(4/1U =
DWe 0)=
540.533
1.40 CONDeX)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C71A -4.27825 3.93849 -1.08627
C71B 0.01682 0.01623 1.03628
C71C 0.14847 0.02288 6.48977
C71D -2.9507'6E-04 6.·45149E-05 -4.57376
r'j"CliE 5.26814E-05 1.19548E-05 4.40671
I
t.1
304:XXDRNT -C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8N(-1)+C76E*
R.DPI8X(-1)
NOB =19 NOVAR =5
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99701 CRSQ =0.99616
SER =3.7780 SSR =199.828
62.81
F(4/14)=1167.510
DW(O)=2.91 CONDeX)-
'T;I COEF \,.'ALUE ST EFo:T-SHHLl
C76A -8.12942 2.98554 -2.72293
C?6B 0.06973 0.02099 3.32245
C76e 0.07878 0.02108 3.73662
C76D 0.09/'9.0 0.02020 4.84584~C76E -0.09266 0.01603 -5.78080
T
H-33
305:LOGCEMDW)-C77AfC77B%LOGeXXDW)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
HSQ ==
::;CF:;:;:
Ot99722 CRSQ =0.99707
SSR =1.278E-02
re1/1S)-6467.990
DWeO)=0.46 CONDex)-
14.68
coEr VALUE 8T EF~T--STAT
e77A -2.35546 0.04393 --53.51710
e77B 0.87700 0.01090 80.42340
306:LOGCEMDRNT)=C75AfC75B*LOGeXXDRNT)
-
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSG =0.99744 CRSG =0.9973
SER =0.0239 SSR =1.032E-02
21 t·c.8
F(1/18>-7017.800
nWCo)=1.28 CONDeX)-
COEF
C75,;
C?5F:
VALUE
-2.37192
1 .004t..5
5T EF:
0.0581.7
0.01199
H-34
T·_·STfH
-40.77430
83.77210
-"
-
J
308:LOG(WRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C78C
*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C7BD*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+C78E*LOG(1+EMCNRTC-2»
'T 6.00
I
I
NDB =20
HAUGE =
RSQ =
SER =
T
NQI",lAR ==6
19t.l TO 1980'
0.87863 CRSQ =0.83528
0.0275 SSR ==1.058E-02
F(5/14)-
DW (0)=
20.:~69
1.68 CONDeX)-
COEF
C78A
C78F
C7BB
C78C
C78D
e78E
VALLIE
4.34562
0.07522
0.72197
1.69244
0.14758
0.58088
ST ER
0.00784
0.03026
0.15520
O.43-t52
0.59482
0.44101
T-STAT
554.30800
2.48574
4.65192
3.89499
0.24812
1.31715
309:LOGCWRDR/PDRPI)=C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)fC+
C79D)*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-l»+C79E*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-2»
NOB =20
RANGE =
RSQ _.
SER =
NOVAR =5
1961 TO 1980
0.6895 CRSO =0.6067
0.0273 SSR =1.122E-02
F(4/15)=
Dt~(O)=2.28
8.327
COWHX)--
T
COEF
C79A
C79F
C79B
C79D
C79E
,,'ALUE
3.83950
-0.04314'
0.61019
0.96035
-0.91468
ST ER
0.00745
0.03006
0.15376
0.33271
0.33784
H-35
T-STAT
~515.09ElOO
-1.43510
3.96855
2.886·t3
-2.70742
316:XXFI =C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-1)*POpe-1)
NOB =16
r~:ANGE -
f:;;SQ =
SEF,-
5.85
NOVAR =3
1965 TO 1980
0.9941 CRSQ ==
8.4999 SSR ==
0.9932
939.228
F(2/13)=:
DW (0)=:
1096.090
1.24 COND(X)-
COEF VALUE 5T ER T-STAT
C80A
C80C
C80B
-50.15230
-15.88940
2.41737E-04
6.16004
5.53236
5.31543E-06
-8.14155
-2.87209
45.47830 -
317:LOG(EMFI)=:C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI)
NOB ==21 NOVAR =2
RANGE ==1961 TO 1981
RSQ =:0.99604 CRSQ =:0.99583
SER =:0.0386 SSR ==2.826E-02
17.03
F(1/19)-
DW(O)=4773.880
0.60 CONDeX)--
COEF VALUE ST ER T-SH"-lT
~,
C8lA -3.62853 0.07190 -50.46620
C8:lB 0.98204 0.01421 69.09300
~
318:LOGCWRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)+C82
*LOGC1+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOGC1fEMCNRT(-1»
2.97
NOB :::'20
F,ANGE --
RSQ -
E;ER --
-,
COI~D O()-
F(4/15)-
nt"J (0)=1 •57
N[I\JAF~=5
1961 TO 1980
0.94077 CRSQ =0.92498
0.0253 SSR =9.630E-03
COEF VALUE 5T ER
C82A
Cf32F
Ct12B
C82D
3.970'~3
0.19859
1.89818
0.60491
0.75790
0.00698
0.02789
0.14035
0.30839
0.31045
568.82900
7.12106
13.52440
:1..96150
2.044133
H-36
320:XXS8NT =C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8X(-1)+C84D*WEALTH(-i)*pope
-1)
NOB =16 NOVAR =4
RANGE =1965 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99276.CRSQ =0.99095
SER =5.0981 SSR =311.890
30.09
F(3/12)=548.673
DWeO)=2.13 CONDeX)-
COEr VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C8AA -26.91120 5.30315 -5.07457
C84B 0.04680 0.01557 3.00657
C84C -0.05933 0.01786 -3.32122
C84[1 9.73265E-05 1.17353E-05 8.29346
321:XXSB =C83A+<fC83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-1)+C83E*WEALTH(-1>*POP
(-:L)
NOB =16 NaVAR =4
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSQ -0.97912 CRSQ =0.97391
SER =4.2878 SSR =220+627
7.28
F(3/12)=187.610
DWCO)=2.19 CONDeX)-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
T C83A -4.91663 3.15771 -1+55702
C83C 0+13914 0.01415 9.83411
C83D 0.03976 0.01584 2.51112
C83E 3+43157E-05 3.11547E-06 11+01460
H-37
322:LOGCEMS8NT)=C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99834 CRSQ -0.99825
SER =0.0228 SSR =9.376E-03
17.17
F(1/iS)-1.08E+04
DW(O)=0.98 COND(X)=-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STI;T
FCS5A-2.27710 0.04397 -51.78730
C85B 1.00835 0.00969 104.0-1200
.....
323:LOG(EMSB)=C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.9989 CRSQ =0.99884
SER =0.0250 SSR =1.128E-02
9.24
F(1/18)=1.64E+04
DW(O)=0.76 COND(X)=
-COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C87A -2.41837 0.02617 -92.42570
C87B 1.00842 0.00788 128.03700 '""'I
-
324:LOG(WRSNB/PDRPI)=C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOGeWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C86C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+CS6D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+C86E*LOG(1fEMCNRT(-2»-
NOB =20 NOVAR =6
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.83956 eRSQ =0.78226
SER =0.0600 SSR =5.033E-02
6.00
Fe5/14)-14.652
DWeO)=0.86 CONDeX)-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
CD'~.3.77964 0.01710 221.02400<-'OH
C86F 0.22935 0.06600 3.47475
C86B 1.36430 0.33853 4.03004
C86C 2.78304 0.94780 2.93630
C86D -0.23809 1.29746 -0.18350
CE:6E 2.13938 0.96196 2.22398
H-38
-.
325:LOGCWRSB/PDRPI)=C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88EtD61.70+C88B*LOGCWEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C88D*LOGClfEMCNRTC-l»+C88G*LOG(l+EMCNRT(
.-2))
NOB ::20
F.:ANGE =
F:SQ :::
SER =
NOVAR =7
1961 TO 19S0
0.95023 CRSQ =0.92727
0.0632 SSR =5.193E-02
F(6/13)-
[lW (0)=
41.371
1.92 COND(X)-
o Oc="
U.J ...J
r-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
CSSA 3.89635 0.04859 80.18010
C88F 0.21638 0.09348 2.31476
C8SE 0.24418 0.05403 4.51911.
I"""C88B 0.67850 0.49601 1.36792
C8SC 9.34441 1.21868 7.66762
e88D -0.24398 1.44964 -0.16830
C88G 4.52672 1.17680 3.84664
~
-
334:LOG(XXGF)=C101A+Cl01B*LOG(EMGF)
NOB ~19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.16241 CRSQ =0.11314
SER =0.0312 SSR =1.656E-02
103.99
F(1/17)::3.296
D~(O)=0.49 CONDeX)
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
elOU\5.58779 0.37237 15.0061.0~F C101B 0.16273 0.09690 1.67945
H-39
335:LOG(WRGC/PDRPI)=C89AfLOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
1.00
NiJF:=20
F:{)I'~GE _.
F:SG -
:3ER =
NO'.,)AF:==1
1961 TO 1980
0.44462 CR50 =
0.0853 S5R =
0.44462
0.138
FCO/19)-
DWeO)=
15.21.1
0.22 CONDeX)=
""'"
COEF
CE:9A
\)ALUE
4.14408
5T EF:
0.01907
T-STIH
217.32900
....,
341:LOGCWRGS/PDRPI)==C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C92C
>l;"D61.73
NOB =20 NOVAR =4
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.94424 CRSQ =0.93378
SER =0.0473 SSR =3.582E-02
3.90
F(3/16)=90.312
DWCO)==1.06 CONDeX)-
-,
-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C92A 4.28374 0.02172 197.22500
C92F 0.29925 0.05622 5.32240
C'jl :2B 2.40477 0.26893 8.94205
C';'2C -0.23483 0.02418 -9.70994 -
....
343:LOGCWRGL/PDRPI)==C102A+CI02F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69+C102C*LOG(1~
EMCNRT)+C102B*LOGCWEUS/PDU5CPI)
i\lOB =20
FJi/-,I C;E ==
F~SQ ==
SER =
NO\HiR =5
1961 TO 1980
0.94901 CRSQ ==0.93542
0.0353 SSR =1.867E-02
F(4/15)--
DW (0)==
69.798
1.87 COND(X)-
5.02
COEF
CI02A
CI02F
CI02D
C102C
C102B
VALUE
4.09380
0.24326
-0.08986
1.68094
1.951'7'4
5T ER
0.02027
0.04742
0.02486
0.36066
0.26951
H-40
T-SHiT
201.93100
5.12951
-3.61516
4.66074
7.24264
-
~I
348:LOGeXXGA)=Cl04A+Cl04B*LOGeEMGA)
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.99634 CRSQ =0.99613
~SER =0.0281 SSR =1.339E-02
12.91
F(1/17)=4631.660
DWeO)::1.95 CONDeX)-
-COEF
C104A
Cl04B
VALUE
2.28334
0.96757
ST Ef.;
0.04182
0.01422
T-STAT
54.59890
68.05550
350:XXA9 =C90Atc90B*eEMA9tEMPROFIS)
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.88599 CRSQ =0.87929
SER =5.1414 SSR =449~37S
10.16
F(1/17)::132.115
DWeO)=2.13 CONDeX)::
COEF
C90A
C908
VALUE
-:-43.64550
13.92170
5T ER
6.05120
1.21120
T-STAT
-7.21269
11.49410
351:LOGCWRM9A9/PDRPI)::C95A+C95F*D.80DEC6+C95B*LOGeWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C95C*LOGel+EMCNRT)+C95D*LOGel+EMCNRTe-l»
I-!DE':=20
F:~:lf-!GE -
RSG!-
SEF:.-
NOVAR ::5
1961 TO 1';'80
0.81971 CRSQ =0.77163
0.0421 SSR =2.663E-02
F(4/1.5)-
II""l (0)::
17.050
1.50 CONDex)-
r
CDEF
C95f~1
(:(l~.i B
f:9~j(:
C95[1
l,,'ALUE
4.13658
0.15724
1.57290
0.90165
0.70681
5T ER
0.01161
0.04638
0.23340
0.51283
0.51625
H-41
T--STAT
356.33-100
3.39060
6.73918
1.75817
1.36914
359:LOG(EMPR01)-Cl00AfC100C*D61.66fCl00B*LOGCEM98)
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.94547 eRSO =
SER =0.1937 5SR =
59.08
0.93906
0.638
F(2/17)=147.382
DWCO)=0.81 COND(X)-
-
-
-
-
COEF VALUE 5T Ef~T-STr~T
ClOOA -4.35555 1.18255 -3.68318
ClOOC -0.99303 O.140j.7 -7 t CJ8426
Cl00B 1.25095 0.23555 5.31071
H-42
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX I
MAP REGIONALIZATION MODEL LISTING
(Including Parameters)
MODEL:A83.CD
PURPOSE:This model allocates statewide projections of population,
employment,and households from the MAP economic model to the
census division level.
DATE:
SYMBOLS:
May 2,1983
ENDOGENOUS:
M.01 M.02 M.03 M.04 M.OS M.06 M.07 M.08 M.09 M.lO M.l1
M.12 M.13 M.14 M.1S M.16 M.17 M.18 M.19 H.20 H.2l M.22
M.23 M.24 M.2S M.26 M.27 M.28 M.29 PCEN.06
CONSTRUCT:
ADJ B.AG B.AH B.FG B.NR B.RB B.ST BAG BAH BFG BNR BRB
BST G.AG G.AM G.FG G.NR G.RB G.ST GAG GAM GFG GNR GRB
GST M.AG M.AM M.FG M.NR M.RB M.ST P.AG P.AM P.FG P.NR
P.RB P.ST P.Ol P.02 P.03 P.04 P.OS P.06 P.07 P.08 P.09
P.10 P.ll P.12 P.13 P.14 P.lS P.16 P.17 P.18 P.19 P.20
P.2l P.22 P.23 P.24 P.2S P.26 P.27 P.28 P.29 PCEN.Ol
PCEN.02 PCEN.03 PCEN.04 PCEN.OS PCEN.07 PCEN.08 PCEN.09
PCEN.lO PCEN.ll PCEN.12 PCEN.13 PCEN.14 PCEN.lS PCEN.16
PCEN.17 PCEN.18 PCEN.19 PCEN.20 PCEN.21 PCEN.22 PCEN.23
PRE.ST PRE.Ol PRE.02 PRE.03 PRE.04 PRE.OS PRE.06 PRE.07
PRE.08 PRE.09 PRE.lO PRE.ll PRE.12 PRE.13 PRE.14 PRE.lS
PRE.16 PRE.17 PRE.18 PRE.19 PRE.20 PRE.21 PRE.22 PRE.23
PRE.24 PRE.2S PRE.26 PRE.27 PRE.28 PRE.29 S.AG S.AH S.FG
S.NR S.RB S.ST
DEFINITION:
ADJHH B.IR G.IR HH.AG HH.AM HH.FG HH.IR HHCEN.ST HHCEN.Ol
HHCEN.02 HHCEN.03 HHCEN.04 HHCEN.OS HHCEN.06 HHCEN.07
HHCEN.08 HHCEN.09 HHCEN.10 HHCEN.11 HHCEN.12 HHCEN.13
HHCEN.14 HHCEN.1S HHCEN.16 HHCEN.17 HHCEN.18 HHCEN.19
HHCEN,20 HHCEN.21 HHCEN.22 HHCEN.23 HPRE.ST HPRE.01 HPRE.02
HPRE.03 HPRE.04 HPRE.OS HPRE.06 HPRE.07 HPRE.08 HPRE.09
HPRE.10 HPRE.l1 HPRE.12 HPRE.13 HPRE.14 HPRE.lS HPRE.16
HPRE.17 HPRE.18 HPRE.19 HPRE.20 HPRE.21 HPRE.22 HPRE.23 M.IR
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
P.IR S.IR S.Ol S .01.01 S .01.02 S.01.03 S.01.04 S .01.05
S .01.06 S .01.07 S .01.08 S .01.09 S.01.10 S .01.11 S.01.12 """
S .01.13 S.01.14 S.01.15 S .01.16 S.01.17 S .01.18 S.01.19
S.01.20 S.01.21 S.01.22 S.01.23 S.01.24 S.01.25 S .01.26
S.01.27 S.01.28 S.01.29 S.02 S.02.01 S.02.02
-
S.28.28
S.29.06
S.29.13
S.29.20
S.29.27
S.28.29
S.29.07
S.29.14
S.29.21
S.29.28
S.29 S.29.01 S.29.02 S.29.03 S.29.04 S.29.05
S.29.08 S.29.09 S.29.10 S.29.11 S.29.12
S.29.15 S.29.16 S.29.17 S.29.18 S.29.19
S.29.22 S.29.23 S.29.24 S.29.25 S.29.26
S.29.29
EXOGENOUS:
B.01 B.02 B.04 B.05 B.06 B.08 B.09 B.11 B.12 B.14 B.15
B.16 B.17 B.18 B.21 B.24 B.25 B.26 B.27 B.29 BETA B01 -
B02 B04 B05 B06 B08 B09 B11 B12 B14 B15 B16 B17 B18
B21 B24 B25 B26 B27 B29 G.01 G.02 G.04 G.OS G.06 G.08
G.09 G.11 G.12 G.14 G.1S G.16 G.17 G.18 G.21 G.24 G.2S
G.26 G.27 G.29 G01 G02 G04 G05 G06 G08 G09 G11 G12 G14
GIS G16 G17 G18 G21 G24 G2S G26 G27 G29 HH POP
WIM1lj
PARAMETER:
A.01.01 A.01.02 A.01.03 A.01.04 A.01.0S A.01.06 A.01.07
A.01.08 A.01.09 A.01.10 A.01.11 A.01.12 A.01.13 A.01.14
A.01.1S A.01.16 A.01.17 A.01.18 A.01.19 A.01.20 A.01.21 -A.01.22 A.01.23 A.01.24 A.01.25 A.01.26 A.0l.27 A.01.28
A.01.29 A.02.01 A.02.02
.-;
-
A.28.29 A.29.01 A.29.02 A.29.03 A.29.04 A.29.0S A.29.06
A.29.07 A.29.08 A.29.09 A.29.10 A.29.11 A.29.12 A.29.13
A.29.14 A.29.1S A.29.16 A.29.17 A.29.18 A.29.19 A.29.20
A.29.21 A.29.22 A.29.23 A.29.24 A.29.2S A.29.26 A.29.27
A.29.28 A.29.29 B.03 B.07 B.10 B.13 B.19 B.20 B.22 B.23
B.28 803 807 B10 813 819 B20 B22 B23 B28 G.03 G.07 G.10
G.13 G.19 G.20 G.22 G.23 G.28 G03 G07 G10 G13 GI9 G20
G22 G23 G28 HHSZ.01 HHSZ.02 HHSZ.03 HHSZ.04 HHSZ.OS HHSZ.06
HHSZ.07 HHSZ.08 HHSZ.09 HHSZ.10 HHSZ.11 HHSZ.12 HHSZ.13
HHSZ.14 HHSZ.1S HHSZ.16 HHSZ.17 HHSZ.18 HHSZ.19 HHSZ.20
HHSZ.21 HHSZ.22 HHSZ.23 IM.OI.01 IM.OI.02 IM.OI.03 IM.OI.04
IM.01.0S IM.01.06 IM.01.07 IM.01.08 IM.01.09 IM.01.10
IM.01.11 IM.01.12 IM.01.13 IM.01.14 IM.01.1S IM.01.16
1-2
-
-
-IM.01.17
1M.01.23
1M.01.29
IM.Ol.18
1M.01.24
IM.02.0l
IM.01.l9
1M.01.25
IM.02.02
IM.Ol.20
IM.01.26
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
IM.Ol.2l IM.Ol.22
IM.Ol.27 IM.Ol.28
"'"'"
P"I"
i
I
~, ,
1:
2:
M.Ol =(A.Ol.Ol*M.Ol+A.Ol.02*M.02+A.Ol.03*M.03+A.Ol.04*
M.04+A.Ol.05*M.05+A.Ol.06*M.06+A.Ol.07*M.07+A.Ol.08*M.08
+A.Ol.09*M.09+A.Ol.lO*M.lO+A.Ol.ll*M.ll+A.Ol.12*M.12+
A.Ol.13*M.13+A.Ol.14*M.l4+A.Ol.l5*M.lS+A.Ol.l6*M.16+
A.Ol.17*M.17+A.Ol.l8*M.18+A.Ol.19*M.19+A.Ol.20*M.20+
A.Ol.2l*M.2l+A.Ol.22*M.22+A.Ol.23*M.23+A.Ol.24*M.24+
A.Ol.25*M.25+A.Ol.26*M.26+A.Ol.27*M.27+A.Ol.28*M.28+
A.Ol.29*M.29)*BETA+B.Ol+G.Ol
M.02 =(A.02.0l*M.Ol+A.02.02*M.02+A.02.03*M.03+A.02.04*
M.04+A.02.05*M.05+A.02.06*M.06+A.02.07*M.07+A.02.08*M.08
+A.02.09*M.09+A.02.l0*M.lO+A.02.ll*M.ll+A.02.l2*M.12+
A.02.l3*M.13+A.02.l4*M.14+A.02.l5*M.15+A.02.l6*M.l6+
A.02.l7*M.l7+A.02.l8*M.l8+A.02.l9*M.19+A.02.20*M.20+
A.02.2l*M.2l+A.02.22*M.22+A.02.23*M.23+A.02.24*M.24+
A.02.25*M.25+A.02.26*M.26+A.02.27*M.27+A.02.28*M.28+
A.02.29*M.29)*BETA+B.02+G.02
1-3
4:K.04 =(A.04.01*K.01+A.04.02*K.02+A.04.03*K.03+A.04.04*
K.04+A.04.0S*K.05+A.04.06*K.06+A.04.07*K.07+A.04.08*K.08
+A.04.09*K.09+A.04.10*K.10+A.04.11*K.11+A.04.12*K.12+
A.04.13*M.13+A.04.14*K.14+A.04.1S*K.1S+A.04.16*K.16+
A.04.17*M.17+A.04.18*K.18+A.04.19*K.19+A.04.20*K.20+
A.04.21*K.21+A.04.22*K.22+A.04.23*K.23+A.04.24*M.24+
A.04.2S*K.25+A.04.26*K.26+A.04.27*K.27+A.04.28*K.28+
A.04.29*K.29)*BETA+B.04+G.04
3:
S:
6:
7:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
M.03 =(A.03.01*M.01+A.03.02*M.02+A.03.03*M.03+A.03.04*
K.04+A.03.0S*K.OS+A.03.06*K.06+A.03.07*M.07+A.03.08*M.08
+A.03.09*K.09+A.03.10*K.10+A.03:11*K.l1+A.03.12*K.12+
A.03.13*K.13+A.03.14*M.14+A.03.1S*K.1S+A.03.16*K.16+
A.03.17*K.17+A.03.18*K.18+A.03.19*K.19+A.03.20*K.20+
A.03.21*K.21+A.03.22*K.22+A.03.23*K.23+A.03.24*K.24+
A.03.2S*K.2S+A.03.26*K.26+A.03.27*M.27+A.03.28*K.28+
A.03.29*K.29)*BETA+B.03+G.03
K.OS =(A.OS.01*K.Ol+A.OS.02*K.02+A.OS.03*K.03+A.OS.04*
M.04+A.OS.OS*K.OS+A.OS.06*K.06+A.OS.07*K.07+A.OS.08*K.08
+A.OS.09*K.09+A.OS.10*K.10+A.OS.11*K.11+A.OS.12*K.12+
A.OS.13*K.13+A.OS.14*K.14+A.OS.1S*K.1S+A.OS.16*K.16+
A.OS.17*K.17+A.OS.18*K.18+A.OS.19*K.19+A.OS.20*K.20+
A.OS.21*K.21+A.OS.22*K.22+A.OS.23*K.23+A.OS.24*K.24+
A.OS.2S*K.2S+A.OS.26*K.26+A.OS.27*K.27+A.OS.28*K.28+
A.OS.29*K.29)*BETA+B.OS+G.OS
M.06 =(A.06.01*K.01+A.06.02*K.02+A.06.03*K.03+A.06.04*
M.04+A.06.0S*K.OS+A.06.06*M.06+A.06.07*K.07+A.06.08*K.08
+A.06.09*M.09+A.06.10*K.10+A.06.11*K.11+A.06.12*K.12+
A.06.13*K.13+A.06.14*K.14+A.06.1S*K.1S+A.06.16*K.16+
A.06.17*K.17+A.06.18*K.18+A.06.19*K.19+A.06.20*K.20+
A.06.21*K.21+A.06.22*K.22+A.06.23*K.23+A.06.24*K.24+
A.06.2S*K.2S+A.06.26*K.26+A.06.27*K.27+A.06.28*K.28+
A.06.29*K.29)*BETA+B.06+G.06
K.07 =(A.07.01*K.01+A.07.02*K.02+A.07.03*K.03+A.07.04*
K.04+A.07.0S*K.OS+A.07.06*K.06+A.07.07*M.07+A.07.08*K.08
+A.07.09*K.09+A.07.10*K.10+A.07.11*K.11+A.07.12*K.12+
A.07.13*K.13+A.07.14*M.14+A.07.1S*K.1S+A.07.16*K.16+
A.07.17*K.17+A.07.18*K.18+A.07.19*K.19+A.07.20*K.20+
A.07.21*K.21+A.07.22*K.22+A.07.23*M.23+A.07.24*K.24+
A.07.2S*K.25+A.07.26*K.26+A.07.27*K.27+A.07.28*K.28+
A.07.29*K.29)*BETA+B.07+G.07
1-4
-.
-
-
-
-
-
,i"""
IT
i I
S:
9:
10:
11:
12:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 19S3
M.OS =(A.OS.01~M.01+A.OS.02*K.02+A.OS.03~M.03+A.OS.04~
K.04+A.OS.OS*K.OS+A.OS.06*K.06+A.OS.07*K.07+A.OS.OS*K.OS
+A.OS.09*K.09+A.OS.10*K.10+A.OS.11*K.11+A.OS.12*M.12+
A.OS.13*M.13+A.OS.14*M.14+A.OS.1S*M.1S+A.OS.16*M.16+
A.OS.17*M.17+A.OS.1S*M.1S+A.OS.19*M.19+A.OS.20*K.20+
A.OS.21*K.21+A.OS.22*M.22+A.OS.23*M.23+A.OS.24*K.24+
A.OS.2S~K.2S+A.OS.26*M.26+A.OS.27*M.27+A.OS.2S*M.2S+
A.OS.29*M.29)*BgTA+B.OS+G.OS
M.09 =(A.09.01*M.01+A.09.02*M.02+A.09.03*M.03+A.09.04*
K.04+A.09.0S*M.OS+A.09.06*M.06+A.09.07*M.07+A.09.0S*K.OS
+A.09.09*M.09+A.09.10*M.10+A.09.11*M.11+A.09.12*K.12+
A.09.13*M.13+A.09.14*K.14+A.09.1S*K.1S+A.09.16*M.16+
A.09.17*M.17+A.09.1S*K.1S+A.09.19*K.19+A.09.20*M.20+
A.09.21*M.21+A.09.22*K.22+A.09.23*K.23+A.09.24*K.24+
A.09.2S*K.2S+A.09.26*M.26+A.09.27*K.27+A.09.2S*M.2S+
A.09.29*K.29)*BETA+B.09+G.09
K.10 =(A.10.01*M.01+A.10.02*K.02+A.10.03*M.03+A.10.04*
K.04+A.10.0S*M.OS+A.10.06*M.06+A.10.07*K.07+A.10.0S*M.OS
+A.10.09*K.09+A.10.10*M.10+A.10.11*M.11+A.10.12*M.12+
A.10.13*K.13+A.10.14*K.14+A.10.1S*K.1S+A.10.16*K.16+
A.10.17*M.17+A.IO.1S*M.1S+A.10.19*K.19+A.10.20*M.20+
A.10.21*M.21+A.10.22~K.22+A.10.23*M.23+A.10.24*M.24+
A.10.2S*K.2S+A.10.26*M.26+A.10.27*K.27+A.10.2S*K.2S+
A.10.29*K.29)*BETA+B.10+G.10
K.11 =(A.11.01*K.01+A.11.02*K.02+A.11.03*K.03+A.11.04*
K.04+A.11.0S*K.OS+A.11.06*M.06+A.11.07*M.07+A.11.0S*K.OS
+A.11.09*K.09+A.11.10*K.10+A.11.11*K.11+A.11.12*K.12+
A.11.13*K.13+A.11.14*M.14+A.11.1S*M.1S+A.11.16*M.16+
A.11.17*K.17+A.11.1S*K.1S+A.11.19*K.19+A.11.20*K.20+
A.11.21*K.21+A.11.22*K.22+A.11.23*K.23+A.l1.24*K.24+
A.11.2S*K.2S+A.11.26*K.26+A.11.27*K.27+A.11.2S*K.2S+
A.11.29*K.29)*BETA+B.11+G.11
M.12 =(A.12.01*K.01+A.12.02*K.02+A.12.03*K.03+A.12.04*
K.04+A.12.0S*K.OS+A.12.06*K.06+A.12.07*M.07+A.12.0S*K.OS
+A.12.09*K.09+A.12.10*K.10+A.12.11*K.11+A.12.12*M.12+
A.12.13*K.13+A.12.14*K.14+A.12.1S*K.1S+A.12.16*K.16+
A.12.17*K.17+A.12.1S*M.lS+A.12.19*K.19+A.12.20*M.20+
A.12.21*K.21+A.12.22*M.22+A.12.23*K.23+A.12.24*K.24+
A.12.2S*M.2S+A.12.26*K.26+A.12.27*K.27+A.12.2S*K.2S+
A.12.29*K.29)*BETA+B.12+G.12
1-5
13:
14:
15:
16:
17:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
K.13 =(A.13.01*K.01+A.13.02*K.02+A.13.03*K.03+A.13.04*
K.04+A.13.0s*K.Os+A.13.06*K.06+A.13.07*K.07+A.13.08*K.08
+A.13.09*K.09+A.13.10*K.10+A.13.11*K.11+A.13.12*K.12+
A.13.13*K.13+A.13.14*K.14+A.13.1s*K.1s+A.13.16*K.16+
A.13.17*K.17+A.13.18*K.18+A.13.19*K.19+A.13.20*K.20+
A.13.21*K.21+A.13.22*K.22+A.13.23*K.23+A.13.24*K.24+
A.13.2s*K.2s+A.13.26*K.26+A.13.27*K.27+A.13.28*K.28+
A.13.29*K.29)*BETA+B.13+G.13
K.14 =(A.14.0l*K.Ol+A.14.02*K.02+A.14.03*K.03+A.14.04*
K.04+A.14.0s*K.Os+A.14.06*K.06+A.14.07*K.07+A.14.08*K.08
+A.14.09*K.09+A.14.10*K.IO+A.14.11*K.ll+A.14.12*K.12+
A.14.13*K.13+A.14.14*K.14+A.14.1s*K.ls+A.14.16*K.16+
A.14.17*K.17+A.14.18*K.18+A.14.19*K.19+A.14.20*K.20+
A.14.21*K.21+A.14.22*K.22+A.14.23*K.23+A.14.24*K.24+
A.14.2s*K.2s+A.14.26*K.26+A.14.27*K.27+A.14.28*K.28+
A.14.29*K.29)*BETA+B.14+G.14
K.ls =(A.ls.Ol*K.Ol+A.ls.02*K.02+A.ls.03*K.03+A.1s.04*
K.04+A.ls.Os*K.Os+A.1s.06*K.06+A.ls.07*K.07+A.ls.08*K.08
+A.ls.09*K.09+A.ls.10*K.10+A.ls.ll*K.ll+A.ls.12*K.12+
A.ls.13*K.13+A.ls.14*K.14+A.ls.ls*K.ls+A.ls.16*K.16+
A.ls.17*K.17+A.ls.18*K.18+A.ls.19*K.19+A.ls.20*K.20+
A.ls.21*K.21+A.1s.22*K.22+A.ls.23*K.23+A.ls.24*K.24+
A.1s.2s*K.2s+A.ls.26*K.26+A.ls.27*K.27+A.ls.28*K.28+
A.ls.29*K.29)*BETA+B.ls+G.ls
K.16 =(A.16.01*K.Ol+A.16.02*K.02+A.16.03*K.03+A.16.04*
K.04+A.16.0s*K.Os+A.16.06*K.06+A.16.07*K.07+A.16.08*K.08
+A.16.09*K.09+A.16.10*K.IO+A.16.11*K.11+A.16.12*K.12+
A.16.13*K.13+A.16.14*K.14+A.16.1s*K.1s+A.16.16*K.16+
A.16.17*K.17+A.16.18*K.18+A.16.19*K.19+A.16.20*K.20+
A.16.21*K.21+A.16.22*K.22+A.16.23*K.23+A.16.24*K.24+
A.16.2s*K.2s+A.16.26*K.26+A.16.27*K.27+A.16.28*K.28+
A.16.29*K.29)*BETA+B.16+G.16
K.17 =(A.17.01*K.01+A.17.02*K.02+A.17.03*K.03+A.17.04*
K.04+A.17.0s*K.Os+A.17.06*K.06+A.17.07*K.07+A.17.08*K.08
+A.17.09*K.09+A.17.10*K.IO+A.17.11*K.ll+A.17.12*K.12+
A.17.13*K.13+A.17.14*K.14+A.17.1s*K.ls+A.17.16*K.16+
A.17.17*K.17+A.17.18*K.18+A.17.19*K.19+A.17.20*K.20+
A.17.21*K.21+A.17.22*K.22+A.17.23*K.23+A.17.24*K.24+
A.17.2s*K.2s+A.17.26*K.26+A.17.27*K.27+A.17.28*K.28+
A.17.29*K.29)*BETA+B.17+G.17
1-6
-
-
-
-
-
-
18:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
K.18 =(A.18.01*K.01+A.18.02*K.02+A.18.03*K.03+A.18.04*
K.04+A.18.0S*K.OS+A.18.06*K.06+A.18.07*K.07+A.18.08*M.08
+A.18.09*K.09+A.18.10*K.10+A.18.11*K.11+A.18.12*K.12+
A.18.13*K.13+A.18.14*K.14+A.18.15*K.1S+A.18.16*K.16+
A.18.17*K.17+A.18.18*K.18+A.18.19*K.19+A.18.20*K.20+
A.18.21*K.21+A.18.22*K.22+A.18.23*K.23+A.18.24*K.24+
A.18.2S*K.2S+A.18.26*K.26+A.18.27*K.27+A.18.28*K.28+
A.18.29*K.29)*BETA+B.18+G.18
19:K~19 =(A.19.01*K.01+A.19.02*M.02+A.19.03*K.03+A.19.04*
K.04+A.19.0S*K.OS+A.19.06*K.06+A.19.07*K.07+A.19.08*K.08
+A.19.09*K.09+A.19.10*K.10+A.19.11*K.11+A.19.12*K.12+
A.19.13*K.13+A.19.14*K.14+A.19.15*K.1S+A.19.16*K.16+
A.19.17*K.17+A.19.18*K.18+A.19.19*K.19+A.19.20*K.20+
A.19.21*K.21+A.19.22*K.22+A.19.23*K.23+A.19.24*K.24+
A.19.2S*K.2S+A.19.26*K.26+A.19.27*K.27+A.19.28*K.28+
A.19.29*K.29)*BETA+B.19+G.19
""'"'I
I
20:
21:
22:
K.20 =(A.20.01*K.01+A.20.02*K.02+A.20.03*K.03+A.20.04*
K.04+A.20.0S*K.OS+A.20.06*K.06+A.20.07*M.07+A.20.08*K.08
+A.20.09*M.09+A.20.10*K.10+A.20.11*K.11+A.20.12*K.12+
A.20.13*K.13+A.20.14*M.14+A.20.15*K.1S+A.20.16*K.16+
A.20.17*K.17+A.20.18*K.18+A.20.19*K.19+A.20.20*K.20+
A.20.21*K.21+A.20.22*K.22+A.20.23*K.23+A.20.24*K.24+
A.20.2S*K.2S+A.20.26*K.26+A.20.27*K.27+A.20.28*K.28+
A.20.29*K.29)*BETA+B.20+G.20
K.21 =(A.21.01*K.01+A.21.02*K.02+A.21.03*K.03+A.21.04*
K.04+A.21.0S*K.05+A.21.06*K.06+A.21.07*K.07+A.21.08*K.08
+A.21.09*K.09+A.21.10*K.10+A.21.11*K.11+A.21.12*K.12+
A.21.13*K.13+A.21.14*K.14+A.21.1S*K.15+A.21.16*K.16+
A.21.17*K.17+A.21.18*K.18+A.21.19*K.19+A.21.20*K.20+
A.21.21*K.21+A.21.22*K.22+A.21.23*K.23+A.21.24*K.24+
A.21.25*K.25+A.21.26*K.26+A.21.27*K.27+A.21.28*K.28+
A.21.29*K.29)*BETA+B.21+G.21
K.22 =(A.22.01*K.01+A.22.02*K.02+A.22.03*K.03+A.22.04*
K.04+A.22.05*K.05+A.22.06*K.06+A.22.07*K.07+A.22.08*M.08
+A.22.09*K.09+A.22.10*K.10+A.22.11*K.11+A.22.12*K.12+
A.22.13*K.13+A.22.14*K.14+A.22.1S*K.15+A.22.16*K.16+
A.22.17*K.17+A.22.18*K.18+A.22.19*K.19+A.22.20*K.20+
A.22.21*K.21+A.22.22*K.22+A.22.23*K.23+A.22.24*K.24+
A.22.25*K.25+A.22.26*K.26+A.22.27*K.27+A.22.28*K.28+
A.22.29*K.29)*BETA+B.22+G.22
1-7
23:
24:
25:
26:
27:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
K.23 =(A.23.01*K.01+A.23.02*K.02+A.23.03*K.03+A.23.04*
K.04+A.23.05*K.05+A.23.06*K.06+A.23.07*K.07+A.23.08*M.08
+A.23.09*K.09+A.23.10*K.10+A.23.11*M.11+A.23.12*K.12+
A.23.13*M.13+A.23.l4*K.14+A.23.15*K.15+A.23.16*K.16+
A.23.17*K.17+A.23.18*K.18+A.23.19*K.19+A.23.20*K.20+
A.23.21*K.21+A.23.22*K.22+A.23.23*K.23+A.23.24*M.24+
A.23.25*M.25+A.23.26*K.26+A.23.27*K.27+A.23.28*K.28+
A.23.29*M.29)*BETA+B.23+G.23
M.24 =(A.24.01*M.01+A.24.02*K.02+A.24.03*K.03+A.24.04*
K.04+A.24.05*K.05+A.24.06*K.06+A.24.07*M.07+A.24.08*M.08
+A.24.09*K.09+A.24.10*K.10+A.24.11*M.11+A.24.12*K.12+
A.24.13*M.~3+A.24.14*K.14+A.24.15*M.15+A.24.16*M.16+
A.24.17*M.17+A.24.18*K.18+A.24.19*K.19+A.24.20*M.20+
A.24.21*K.21+A.24.22*K.22+A.24.23*K.23+A.24.24*M.24+
A.24.25*K.25+A.24.26*M.26+A.24.27*K.27+A.24.28*K.28+
A.24.29*K.29)*BETA+B.24+G.24
M.25 =(A.25.01*K.01+A.25.02*K.02+A.25.03*K.03+A.25.04*
M.04+A.25.05*M.05+A.25.06*K.06+A.25.07*M.07+A.25.08*M.08
+A.25.09*K.09+A.25.10*K.10+A.25.11*K.11+A.25.12*K.12+
A.25.13*K.13+A.25.14*K.14+A.25.15*M.15+A.25.16*M.16+
A.25.17*K.17+A.25.18*K.18+A.25.19*K.19+A.25.20*M.20+
A.25.21*K.21+A.25.22*K.22+A.25.23*M.23+A.25.24*K.24+
A.25.25*K.25+A.25.26*K.26+A.25.27*K.27+A.25.28*K.28+
A.25.29*K.29)*BETA+B.25+G.25
M.26 =(A.26.01*K.01+A.26.02*K.02+A.26.03*M.03+A.26.04*
M.04+A.26.05*M.05+A.26.06*M.06+A.26.07*K.07+A.26.08*M.08
+A.26.09*K.09+A.26.10*K.10+A.26.11*K.11+A.26.12*K.12+
A.26.13*K.13+A.26.14*K.14+A.26.15*K.15+A.26.16*K.16+
A.26.17*K.17+A.26.18*K.18+A.26.19*M.19+A.26.20*K.20+
A.26.21*K.21+A.26.22*M.22+A.26.23*M.23+A.26.24*K.24+
A.26.25*K.25+A.26.26*K.26+A.26.27*M.27+A.26.28*K.28+
A.26.29*K.29)*BETA+B.26+G.26
M.27 =(A.27.01*K.01+A.27.02*K.02+A.27.03*M.03+A.27.04*
M.04+A.27.05*K.05+A.27.06*M.06+A.27.07*K.07+A.27.08*K.08
+A.27.09*K.09+A.27.10*K.10+A.27.11*K.11+A.27.12*K.12+
A.27.13*M.13+A.27.14*K.14+A.27.15*K.15+A.27.16*K.16+
A.27.17*K.17+A.27.18*M.18+A.27.19*M.19+A.27.20*K.20+
A.27.21*K.21+A.27.22*K.22+A.27.23*K.23+A.27.24*M.24+
A.27.25*K.25+A.27.26*K.26+A.27.27*M.27+A.27.28*M.28+
A.27.29*M.29)*BETA+B.27+G.27
1-8
....
.-,
--,
-
-I
....
28:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
M.28 =(A.28.01*M.01+A.28.02*M.02+A.28.03*M.03+A.28.04*
M.04+A.28.05*M.05+A.2B.06*M.06+A.2B.07*M.07+A.2B.OB*M.08
+A.28.09*M.09+A.28.10*M.10+A.2B.11*M.11+A.28.12*M.12+
A.2B.13*M.13+A.2B.14*M.14+A.2B.15*M.15+A.2B.16*M.16+
A.28.17*M.17+A.2B.1B*M.18+A~28.19*M.19+A.28.20*M.20+
A.28.21*M.21+A.2B.22*M.22+A.28.23*M.23+A.28.24*M.24+
A.2B.25*M.25+A.28.26*M.26+A.28.27*M.27+A.28.2B*M.2B+
A.28.29*M.29)*BETA+B.2B+G.28
-
""'"I
I
I
1,I,
1"'1"
,I
I
29:M.29 =(A.29.01*M.01+A.29.02*M.02+A.29.03*M.03+A.29.04*
M.04+A.29.05*M.05+A.29.06*M.06+A.29.07*M.07+A~29.08*M.08
+A.29.09*M.09+A.29.10*M.10+A.29.11*M.11+A.29.12*M.12+
A.29.13*M.13+A.29.14*M.14+A.29.15*M.15+A.29.16*M.16+
A.29.17*M.17+A.29.18*M.1B+A.29.19*M.19+A.29.20*M.20+
A.29.21*M.21+A.29.22*K.22+A.29.23*M.23+A.29.24*M.24+
A.29.25*K.25+A.29.26*K.26+A.29.27*K.27+A.29.2B*K.2B+
A.29.29*M.29)*BETA+B.29+G.29
Support Employment (S.aa.bb)in region aa due to economic
acti vity in region bb
30:S.01.01 --A.01.01*K.01*BETA
31:S.01.02 --A.01.02*M.02*BETA
32:S .01.03 --A.01.03*K.03*BETA
33:S .01.04 --A.01.04*M.04*BETA
34:S.01.05 --A.01.05*K.05*BETA
35:S .01.06 --A.01.06*M.06*BETA
36:S.01.07 --A.01.07*K.07*BETA
37:S .01.0B --A.01.0B*M.OB*BETA
38:S .01.09 --A.01.09*K.09*BETA
39:S .01.10 --A.01.10*K.10*BETA
40:S.01.11 --A.01.11*K.11*BETA
41:S.01.12 --A.01.12*K.12*BETA
42:S.01.13 ==A.01.13*K.13*BETA
1-9
-
1nsti tute of 8ocia1
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
43:8.01.14 A.01.14*H.14*BETA JII!It'l'l.--
44:8.01.15 --A.01.15*H.15*BETA
~
45:8.01.16 --A.01.16*H.16*BETA
46:8.01.17 ==A.01.17*H.17*BETA ~
47:8.01.18 --A.01.18*H.18*BETA
48:8.01.19 A.01.19*H.19*BETA ---
49:8.01.20 --A.01.20*H.20*BETA -50:8.01.21 --A.01.21*M.21*BETA
51:8.01.22 --A.01.22*H.22*BETA
~
52:8.01.23 --A.01.23*M.23*BETA
53:8.01.24 --A.01.24*M.24*BETA -
54:8.01.25 --A.01.25*M.25*BETA
""'1
55:8.01.26 --A.01.26*H.26*BETA
56:8.01.27 --A.01.27*H.27*BETA -
57:8.01.28 --A.01.28*M.28*BETA
58:8.01.29 --A.01.29*M.29*BETA
59:8.02.01 --A.02.01*M.01*BETA
60:8.02.02 --A.02.02*H.02*BETA
--
840:8.28.28 --A.28.28*H.28*BETA -
841:8.28.29 A.28.29*H.29*BETA
-.842:8.29.01 --A.29.01*M.01*BETA
843:8.29.02 --A.29.02*H.02*BETA
844:8.29.03 --A.29.03*M.03*BETA
~
1-10
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Support Employment (S.aa)in region aa
871:
872:
873:
S.Ol ==S.01.01+S.01.02+S.01.03+S.01.04+S.01.05+S.01.06+
S.01.07+S.01.08+S.01.09+S.01.10+S.01.11+S.01.12+S.01.13+
S.01.14+S.01.15+S.01.16+S.01.17+S.01.18+S.01.19+S.01.20+
S.01.21+S.01.22+S.01.23+S.01.24+S.01.25+S.01.26+S.01.27+
S.01.28+S.01.29
S.02 ==S.02.01+S.02.02+S.02.03+S.02.04+S.02.05+S.02.06+
S.02.07+S.02.08+S.02.09+S.02.10+S.02.11+S.02.12+S.02.13+
S.02.14+S.02.15+S.02.16+S.02.17+S.02.18+S.02.19+S.02.20+
S.02.21+S.02.22+S.02.23+S.02.24+S.02.25+S.02.26+S.02.27+
S.02.28+S.02.29
S.03 ==S.03.01+S.03.02+S.03.03+S.03.04+S.03.05+S.03.06+
S.03.07+S.03.08+S.03.09+S.03.10+S.03.11+S.03.12+S.03.13+
S.03.14+S.03.15+S.03.16+S.03.17+S.03.18+S.03.19+S.03.20+
S.03.21+S.03.22+S.03.23+S.03.24+S.03.25+S.03.26+S.03.27+
S.03.28+S.03.29
-
"'""
874:S.04 ==S.04.01+S.04.02+S.04.03+S.04.04+S.04.05+S.04.06+
S.04.07+S.04.08+S.04.09+S.04.10+S.04.11+S.04.12+S.04.13+
S.04.14+S.04.15+S.04.16+S.04.17+S.04.18+S.04.19+S.04.20+
S.04.21+S.04.22+S.04.23+S.04.24+S.04.25+S.04.26+S.04.27+
S.04.28+S.04.29
875:
876:
S.05 ==S.05.01+S.05.02+S.05.03+S.05.04+S.05.05+S.05.06+
S.05.07+S.05.08+S.05.09+S.05.10+S.05.11+S.05.12+S.05.13+
S.05.14+S.05.15+S.05.16+S.05.17+S.05.18+S.05.19+S.05.20+
S.05.21+S.05.22+S.05.23+S.05.24+S.05.25+S.05.26+S.05.27+
S.05.28+S.05.29
S.06 ==S.06.01+S.06.02+S.06.03+S.06.04+S.06.05+S.06.06+
S.06.07+S.06.08+S.06.09+S.06.10+S.06.11+S.06.12+S.06.13+
S.06.14+S.06.15+S.06.16+S.06.17+S.06.18+S.06.19+S.06.20+
S.06.21+S.06.22+S.06.23+S.06.24+S.06.25+S.06.26+S.06.27+
S.06.28+S.06.29
.....
877:S.07 ==S.07.01+S.07.02+S.07.03+S.07.04+S.07.05+S.07.06+
S.07.07+S.07.08+S.07.09+S.07.10+S.07.11+S.07.12+S.07.13+
S.07.14+S.07.15+S.07.16+S.07.17+S.07.18+S.07.19+S.07.20+
S.07.21+S.07.22+S.07.23+S.07.24+S.07.25+S.07.26+S.07.27+
S.07.28+S.07.29
878:S.08 ==S.08.01+S.08.02+S.08.03+S.08.04+S.08.05+S.08.06+
S.08.07+S.08.08+S.08.09+S.08.10+S.08.11+S.08.12+S.08.13+
S.08.14+S.08.15+S.08.16+S.08.17+S.08.18+S.08.19+S.08.20+
S.08.21+S.08.22+S.08.23+S.08.24+S.08.25+S.08.26+S.08.27+
S.08.28+S.08.29
1-12
Institute of 80cial
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
879:8.09 ==8.09.01+8.09.02+8.09.03+8.09.04+8.09.05+8.09.06+
8.09.07+8.09.08+8.09.09+8.09.10+8.09.11+8.09.12+8.09.13+
8.09.14+8.09.15+8.09.16+8.09.17+8.09.18+8.09.19+8.09.20+
8.09.21+8.09.22+8.09.23+8.09.24+8.09.25+8.09.26+8.09.27+
8.09.28+8.09.29
880:8.10 ==8.10.01+8.10.02+8.10.03+8.10.04+8.10.05+8.10.06+
8.10.07+8.10.08+8.10.09+8.10.10+8.10.11+8.10.12+8.10.13+
8.10.14+8.10.15+8.10.16+8.10.17+8.10.18+8.10.19+8.10.20+
8.10.21+8.10.22+8.10.23+8.10.24+8.10.25+8.10.26+8.10.27+
8.10.28+8.10.29
881:8.11 ==8.1l.01~8.11.02+8.11.03+8.11.04+8.11.05+8.11.06+
8.11.07+8.11.08+8.11.09+8.11.10+8.11.11+8.11.12+8.11.13+
8.11.14+8.11.15+8.11.16+8.11.17+8.11.18+8.11.19+8.11.20+
8.11.21+8.11.22+8.11.23+8.11.24+8.11.25+8.11.26+8.11.27+
8.11.28+8.11.29
.....
-
1"'1'"
i
882:
883:
884:
885:
886:
.
8.12 ==8.12.01+8.12.02+8.12.03+8.12.04+8.12.05+8.12.06+
8.12.07+8.12.08+8.12.09+8.12.10+8.12.11+8.12.12+8.12.13+
8.12.14+8.12.15+8.12.16+8.12.17+8.12.18+8.12.19+8.12.20+
8.12.21+8.12.22+8.12.23+8.12.24+8.12.25+8.12.26+8.12.27+
8.12.28+8.12.29
8.13 ==8.13.01+8.13.02+8.13.03+8.13.04+8.13.05+8.13.06+
8.13.07+8.13.08+8.13.09+8.13.10+8.13.11+8.13.12+8.13.13+
8.13.14+8.13.15+8.13.16+8.13.17+8.13.18+8.13.19+8.13.20+
8.13.21+8.13.22+8.13.23+8.13.24+8.13.25+8.13.26+8.13.27+
8.13.28+8.13.29
8.14 ==8.14.01+8.14.02+8.14.03+8.14.04+8.14.05+8.14.06+
8.14.07+8.14.08+8.14.09+8.14.10+8.14.11+8.14.12+8.14.13+
8.14.14+8.14.15+8.14.16+8.14.17+8.14.18+8.14.19+8.14.20+
8.14.21+8.14.22+8.14.23+8.14.24+8.14.25+8.14.26+8.14.27+
8.14.28+8.14.29
8.15 ==8.15.01+8.15.02+8.15.03+8.15.04+8.15.05+8.15.06+
8.15.07+8.15.08+8.15.09+8.15.10+8.15.11+8.15.12+8.15.13+
8.15.14+8.15.15+8.15.16+8.15.17+8.15.18+8.15.19+8.15.20+
8.15.21+8.15.22+8.15.23+8.15.24+8.15.25+8.15.26+8.15.27+
8.15.28+8.15.29
8.16 ==8.16.01+8.16.02+8.16.03+8.16.04+8.16.05+8.16.06+
8.16.07+8.16.08+8.16.09+8.16.10+8.16.11+8.16.12+8.16.13+
8.16.14+8.16.15+8.16.16+8.16.17+8.16.18+8.16.19+8.16.20+
8.16.21+8.16.22+8.16.23+8.16.24+8.16.25+8.16.26+8.16.27+
8.16.28+8.16.29
1-13
887:
888:
Institute of 8ocia1
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
8.17 ==8.17.01+8.17.02+8.17.03+8.17.04+8.17.05+8.17.06+
8.17.07+8.17.08+8.17.09+8.17.10+8.17.11+8.17.12+8.17.13+
8.17.14+8.17.15+8.17.16+8.17.17+8.17.18+8.17.19+8.17.20+
8.17.21+8.17.22+8.17.23+8.17.24+8.17.25+8.17.26+8.17.27+
8.17.28+8.17.29
8.18 ==8.18.01+8.18.02+8.18.03+8.18.04+8.18.05+8.18.06+
8.18.07+8.18.08+8.18.09+8.18.10+8.18.11+8.18.12+8.18.13+
8.18.14+8.18.15+8.18.16+8.18.17+8.18.18+8.18.19+8.18.20+
8.18.21+8.18.22+8.18.23+8.18.24+8.18.25+8.18.26+8.18.27+
8.18.28+8.18.29
~I
-
889:8.19 ==8.19.01+8.19.02+8.19.03+8.19.04+8.19.05+8.19.06+
8.19.07+8.19.08+8.19.09+8.19.10+8.19.11+8.19.12+8.19.13+
8.19.14+8.19.15+8.19.16+8.19.17+8.19.18+8.19.19+8.19.20+
8.19.21+8.19.22+8.19.23+8.19.24+8.19.25+8.19.26+8.19.27+
8.19.28+8.19.29
890:
891:
892:
893:
8.20 ==8.20.01+8.20.02+8.20.03+8.20.04+8.20.05+8.20.06+
8.20.07+8.20.08+8.20.09+8.20.10+8.20.11+8.20.12+8.20.13+
8.20.14+8.20.15+8.20.16+8.20.17+8.20.18+8.20.19+8.20.20+
8.20.21+8.20.22+8.20.23+8.20.24+8.20.25+8.20.26+8.20.27+
8.20.28+8.20.29
8.21 ==8.21.01+8.21.02+8.21.03+8.21.04+8.21.05+8.21.06+
8.21.07+8.21.08+8.21.09+8.21.10+8.21.11+8.21.12+8.21.13+
8.21.14+8.21.15+8.21.16+8.21.17+8.21.18+8.21.19+8.21.20+
8.21.21+8.21.22+8.21.23+8.21.24+8.21.25+8.21.26+8.21.27+
8.21.28+8.21.29
8.22 ==8.22.01+8.22.02+8.22.03+8.22.04+8.22.05+8.22.06+
8.22.07+8.22.08+8.22.09+8.22.10+8.22.11+8.22.12+8.22.13+
8.22.14+8.22.15+8.22.16+8.22.17+8.22.18+8.22.19+8.22.20+
8.22.21+8.22.22+8.22.23+8.22.24+8.22.25+8.22.26+8.22.27+
8.22.28+8.22.29
8.23 ==8.23.01+8.23.02+8.23.03+8.23.04+8.23.05+8.23.06+
8.23.07+8.23.08+8.23.09+8.23.10+8.23.11+8.23.12+8.23.13+
8.23.14+8.23.15+8.23.16+8.23.17+8.23.18+8.23.19+8.23.20+
8.23.21+8.23.22+8.23.23+8.23.24+8.23.25+8.23.26+8.23.27+
8.23.28+8.23.29
....
-
894:8.24 ==8.24.01+8.24.02+8.24.03+8.24.04+8.24.05+8.24.06+
8.24.07+8.24.08+8.24.09+8.24.10+8.24.11+8.24.12+8.24.13+
8.24.14+8.24.15+8.24.16+8.24.17+8.24.18+8.24.19+8.24.20+
8.24.21+8.24.22+8.24.23+8.24.24+8.24.25+8.24.26+8.24.27+
8.24.28+8.24.29
1-14
-
Institute of 80cial
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
895:8.25 ==8.25.01+8.25.02+8.25.03+8.25.04+8.25.05+8.25.06+
8.25.07+8.25.08+8.25.09+8.25.10+8.25.11+8.25.12+8.25.13+
8.25.14+8.25.15+8.25.16+8.25.17+8.25.18+8.25.19+8.25.20+
8.25.21+8.25.22+8.25.23+8.25.24+8.25.25+8.25.26+8.25.27+
8.25.28+8.25.29
896:8.26 ==8.26.01+8.26.02+8.26.03+8.26.04+8.26.05+8.26.06+
8.26.07+8.26.08+8.26.09+8.26.10+8.26.11+8.26.12+8.26.13+
8.26.14+8.26.15+8.26.16+8.26.17+8.26.18+8.26.19+8.26.20+
8.26.21+8.26.22+8.26.23+8.26.24+8.26.25+8.26.26+8.26.27+
8.26.28+8.26.29
897:8.27 ==8.27.01+8.27.02+8.27.03+8.27.04+8.27.05+8.27.06+
8.27.07+8.27.08+8.27.09+8.27.10+8.27.11+8.27.12+8.27.13+
8.27.14+8.27.15+8.27.16+8.27.17+8.27.18+8.27.19+8.27.20+
8.27.21+8.27.22+8.27.23+8.27.24+8.27.25+8.27.26+8.27.27+
8.27.28+8.27.29
898:8.28 ==8.28.01+8.28.02+8.28.03+8.28.04+8.28.05+8.28.06+
8.28.07+8.28.08+8.28.09+8.28.10+8.28.11+8.28.12+8.28.13+
8.28.14+8.28.15+8.28.16+8.28.17+8.28.18+8.28.19+8.28.20+
8.28.21+8.28.22+8.28.23+8.28.24+8.28.25+8.28.26+8.28.27+
8.28.28+8.28.29
899:8.29 ==8.29.01+8.29.02+8.29.03+8.29.04+8.29.05+8.29.06+
8.29.97+8.29.08+8.29.09+8.29.10+8.29.11+8.29.12+8.29.13+
8.29.14+8.29.15+8.29.16+8.29.17+8.29.18+8.29.19+8.29.20+
8.29.21+8.29.22+8.29.23+8.29.24+8.29.25+8.29.26+8.29.27+
8.29.28+8.29.29
Aggregate Employment by Type
8.8T ==8.01+8.02+8.03+8.04+8.05+8.06+8.07+8,08+8.09+
8.10+8.11+8.12+8.13+8.14+8.15+8.16+8.17+8.18+8.19+8.20+
8.21+8.22+8.23+8.24+8.25+8.26+8.27+8.28+8.29
8.8T ==8.01+8.02+8.03+8.04+8.05+8.06+8.07+8.08+8.09+
8.10+8.11+8.12+8.13+8.14+8.15+8.16+8.17+8.18+8.19+8.20+
8.21+8.22+8.23+8.24+8.25+8.26+8.27+8.28+8.29
G.8T ==G.Ol+G.02+G.03+G.04+G.05+G.06+G.07+G.08+G.09+
G.I0+G.ll+G.12+G.13+G.14+G.15+G.16+G.17+G.18+G.19+G.20+
G.21+G.22+G.23+G.24+G.25+G.26+G.27+G.28+G.29
900:
r
II
901:
-
902:
903:K.8T ==K.Ol+K.02+K.03+K.04+K.05+K.06+K.07+K.08+K.09+
K.I0+K.ll+K.12+K.13+K.14+K.15+K.16+K.17+K.18+K.19+K.20+
K.21+K.22+K.23+K.24+K.25+K.26+K.27+K.28+K.29
1-15
904:
905:
906:
907:
908:
909:
910:
911:
912:
913:
914:
915:
916:
917:
918:
919:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.RB --B.02+B.09+B.12+B.17+B.21+B.24+B.26
G.RB --G.02+G.09+G.12+G.17+G.21+G.24+G.26
S.RB --S.02+S.09+S.12+S.17+S.21+S.24+S.26
M.RB --M.02+M.09+M.12+K.17+M.21+M.24+M.26
B.NR --B.ST-B.RB
G.NR --G.ST-G.RB
S.NR --S.ST-S.RB
M.NR ==M.ST-M.RB
B.AM --B.02+B.17
G.AM --G.02+G.17
S.AM --S.02+S.17
R.AM ==M.02+M.17
BAM --B02+B17
GAM --G02+G17
BST --BOl+B02+B03+B04+B05+B06+B07+B08+B09+BI0+Bll+BI2+
BI3+BI4+BI5+BI6+BI7+818+BI9+B20+B21+B22+B23+B24+B25+B26+
B27+B28+829
GST ==GOl+G02+G03+G04+G05+G06+G07+G08+G09+GI0+Gll+GI2+
GI3+GI4+GI5+GI6+GI7+GI8+GI9+G20+G21+G22+G23+G24+G25+G26+
G27+G28+G29
-
-
920:BRB --B02+B09+BI2+BI7+B21+B24+B26
921:BNR --BST-BRB
922:GRB G02+G09+GI2+GI7+G21+G24+G26
923:GNR ==GST-GRB
924:G.AG --G.AM+G.21+G.12
925:B.AG --B.AM+B.21+B.12
926:S.AG --S.AM+S.21+S.12
1-16
-
-
Insti tute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
927:M.AG --M.AM+M.21+M.12
928:G.FG --G.09+G.24
929:B.FG --B.09+B.24
930:S.FG --8.09+S.24
931:M.FG --M.09+M.24
f-
932:GAG --GAM+G21+G12
933:BAG --BAM+B21+BI2-
934:GFG --G09+G24
935:BFG --809+824
Preliminary Population Estimate (PRE.aa)for region aa
I,,
i !
936:
937:
938:
PRE.29 ==PM.29*(M.Ol*IM.29.01+M.02*IM.29.02+M.03*
IM.29.03+M.04*IM.29.04+M.05*IM.29.05+M.06*IM.29.06+M.07*
IM.29.07+M.08*IM.29.08+M.09*IM.29.09+M.I0*IM.29.10+M.11*
IM.29.11+M.12*IM.29.12+M.13*IM.29.13+M.14*IM.29.14+M.l5*
IM.29.15+M.16*IM.29.16+M.17*IM.29.17+M.18*IM.29.18+M.l9*
IM.29.19+M.20*IM.29.20+M.21*IM.29.21+M.22*IM.29.22+M.23*
IM.29.23+M.24*IM.29.24+M.25*IM.29.25+M.26*IM.29.26+M.27*
IM.29.27+M.28*IM.29.28+M.29*IM.29.29)
PRE.28 ==PM.28*(M.Ol*IM.28.01+M.02*IM.28.02+M.03*
IM.28.03+M.04*IM.28.04+M.05*IM.28.05+M.06*IM.28.06+M.07*
IM.28.07+M.08*IM.28.08+M.09*IM.28.09+M.I0*IM.28.10+M.11*
IM.28.11+M.12*IM.28.12+M.13*IM.28.13+M.14*IM.28.14+M.l5*
IM.28.15+M.16*IM.28.16+M.17*IM.28.17+M.18*IM.28.18+M.l9*
IM.28.19+M.20*IM.28.20+M.21*IM.28.21+M.22*IM.28.22+M.23*
IM.28.23+M.24*IM.28.24+M.25*IM.28.25+M.26*IM.28.26+M.27*
IM.28.27+M.28*IM.28.28+M.29*IM.28.29)
PRE.27 ==PM.27*(M.Ol*IM.27.01+M.02*IM.27.02+M.03*
IM.27.03+M.04*IM.27.04+M.05*IM.27.05+M.06*IM.27.06+M.07*
IM.27.07+M.08*IM.27.08+M.09*IM.27.09+M.I0*IM.27.10+M.11*
IM.27.11+M.12*IM.27.12+M.13*IM.27.13+M.14*IM.27.14+M.l5*
IM.27.15+M.16*IM.27.16+M.17*IM.27.17+M.18*IM.27.18+M.l9*
IM.27.19+M.20*IM.27.20+M.21*IM.27.21+M.22*IM.27.22+M.23*
IM.27.23+M.24*IM.27.24+M.25*IM.27.25+M.26*IM.27.26+M.27*
IM.27.27+M.28*IM.27.28+M.29*IM.27.29)
1-17
939:
940:
941:
942:
943:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
PRE.26 ;:=PH.26*(K.01*IH.26.01+K.02*IK.26.02+K.03*
lK.26.03+K.04*IK.26.04+K.05*IK.26.05+K.06*IK.26.06+K.07*
lK.26.07+K.08*IK.26.08+K.09*IK.26.09+K.10*IK.26.10+K.11*
1K.26.11+K.12*IK,26.12+K.13*IK.26.13+K.14*IK.26.14+K.15*
1K.2~.15+K.16*IK.26.16+K.17*IK.26.17+K.18*IK.26.18+K.19*
1K.26.19+K.20*IK.26.20+K.21*IK.26.21+K.22*IK.26.22+K.23*
lK.26.23+K.24*IK.26.24+K.25*IK.26.25+K.26*IK.26.26+K.27*
lK.26.27+K.28*IK.26.28+K.29*IK.26.29)
PRE.25 ==PK.25*{K.01*IK.25.01+K.02*IK.25.02+K.03*
lK.25.03+K.04*IK.25.04+K.05*IK.25.05+K.06*IK.25.06+K.07*
lK.25.07+K.08*IK.25.08+K.09*IK.25.09+K.10*IK.25.10+K.11*
lK.25.11+K.12*IK.25.12+K.13*IK.25.13+K.14*IK.25.14+K.15*
lK.25.15+K.16*IK.25.16+K.17*IK.25.17+K.18*IK.25.18+K.19*
lK.25.19+K.20*IK.25.20+K.21*IK.25.21+K.22*IK.25.22+K.23*
lK.25.23+K.24*IK.25.24+K.25*IK.25.25+K.26*IK.25.26+K.27*
lK.25.27+K.28*IK.25.28+K.29*IK.25.29)
PRE.24 ==PK.24*(K.01*IK.24.01+K.02*IK.24.02+K.03*
lK.24.03+K.04*IK.24.04+K.05*IK.24.05+K.06*IK.24.06+K.07*
lK.24.07+K.08*IK.24.08+K.09*IK.24.09+K.10*IM.24.10+K.11*
lK.24.11+K.12*IK.24.12+K.13*IK.24.13+K.14*IK.24.14+K.15*
lK.24.15+K.16*IK.24.16+K.17*IK.24.17+K.18*IK.24.18+K.19*
IH.24.19+K.20*IK.24.20+K.21*IK.24.21+K.22*IK.24.22+K.23*
lK.24.23+K.24*IK.24.24+K.25*IK.24.25+K.26*IK.24.26+K.27*
lK.24.27+K.28*IK.24.28+K.29*IK.24.29)
PRE.23 ==PK.23*(K.01*IK.23.01+K.02*IK.23.02+K.03*
lK.23.03+K.04*IK.23.04+K.05*IK.23.05+K.06*IK.23.06+K.07*
lK.23.07+K.08*IK.23.08+K.09*IK.23.09+K.10*IK.23.10+K.11*
lK.23.11+K.12*IH.23.12+K.13*IK.23.13+K.14*IK.23.14+K.15*
lK.23.15+K.16*IK.23.16+K.17*IK.23.17+K.18*IK.23.18+K.19*
lK.23.19+K.20*IK.23.20+K.21*IK.23.21+K.22*IK.23.22+K.23*
1K.23.23+K.24*IK.23.24+K.25*IK.23.25+K.26*IK.23.26+K.27*
lK.23.27+K.28*IK.23.28+K.29*IK.23.29)
PRE.22 ;:=PH.22*(K.01*IK.22.01+K.02*IK.22.02+K.03*
lK.22.03+K.04*IK.22.04+K.05*IK.22.05+K.06*IK.22.06+K.07*
lK.22.07+K.08*IK.22.08+K.09*IK.22.09+K.10*IK.22.10+K.11*
lK.22.11+K.12*IK.22.12+K.13*IK.22.13+K.14*IK.22.14+K.15*
lK.22.15+K.16*IK.22.16+K.17*IK.22.17+K.18*IK.22.18+K.19*
lK.22.19+K.20*IK.22.20+K.21*IK.22.21+K.22*IK.22.22+K.23*
lK.22.23+K.24*IK.22.24+K.25*IK.22.25+K.26*IK.22.26+K.27*
lK.22.27+K.28*IK.22.28+K.29*IK.22.29)
1-18
,....
-
-
-
-
.....
.f!l:!llIIl:o,.
944:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
PRE.21 ==PH.21*(H.Ol*IH.21.01+H.02*IH.21.02+H.03*
IH.21.03+H.04*IH.21.04+H.05*IH.21.05+H.06*IH.21.06+H.O7*
IH.21.07+H.08*IH.21.08+H.09*IH.21.09+H.I0*IH.21.10+H.l1*
IH.21.11+H.12*IH.21.12+H.13*IH.21.13+H.14*IH.21.14+H.l5*
IH.21.15+H.16*IH.21.16+H.17*IH.21.17+H.18*IH.21.18+H.l9*
IH.21.19+H.20*IH.21.20+H.21*IH.21.21+H.22*IH.21.22+H.23*
IH.21.23+H.24*IH.21.24+H.25*IH.21.25+H.26*IH.21.26+H.27*
IH.21.27+H.28*IH.21.28+H.29*IH.21.29}
945:PRE.20 ==PH.20*(H.Ol*IH.20.01+H.02*IH.20.02+H.03*
IH.20.03+H.04*IH.20.04+H.05*IH.20.05+H.06*IH.20.06+H.O7*
IH.20.07+H.08*IH.20.08+H.09*IH.20.09+H.I0*IH.20.10+H.11*
IH.20.11+H.12*IH.20.12+H.13*IH.20.13+H.14*IH.20.14+H.l5*
IH.20.15+H.16*IH.20.16+H.17*IH.20.17+H.18*IH.20.18+H.l9*
IH.20.19+H.20*IH.20.20+H.21*IH.20.21+H.22*IH.20.22+H.23*
IH.20.23+H.24*IH.20.24+H.25*IH.20.25+H.26*IH.20.26+H.27*
IH.20.27+H.28*IH.20.28+H.29*IH.20.29}
946:PRE.19 ==PH.19*(H.Ol*IH.19.01+M.02*IH.19.02+H.03*
IH.19.03+H.04*IH.19.04+M.05*IH.19.05+H.06*IH.19.06+M.O7*
IH.19.07+H.08*IH.19.08+H.09*IH.19.09+H.I0*IH.19.10+H.11*
IH.19.11+H.12*IH.19.12+H.13*IH.19.13+H.14*IH.19.14+H.l5*
IH.19.15+H.16*IH.19.16+H.17*IH.19.17+H.18*IH.19.18+H.l9*
IH.19.19+H.20*IH.19.20+H.21*IH.19.21+H.22*IH.19.22+H.23*
IH.19.23+H.24*IH.19.24+H.25*IH.19.25+H.26*IH.19.26+H.27*
IH.19.27+H.28*IH.19.28+H.29*IH.19.29}
947:PRE.18 ==PH.18*(H.Ol*IH.18.01+H.02*IH.18.02+H.03*
IH.18.03+H.04*IH.18.04+H.05*IH.18.05+M.06*IH.18.06+H.O7*
IM.18.07+H.08*IH.18.08+H.09*IH.18.09+H.I0*IH.18.10+H.11*
IH.18.11+H.12*IM.18.12+H.13*IH.18.13+H.14*IH.18.14+H.l5*
IH.18.15+H.16*IH.18.16+H.17*IH.18.17+H.18*IH.18.18+H.l9*
IH.18.19+H.20*IH.18.20+H.21*IM.18.21+H.22*IM.18.22+H.23*
IH.18.23+H.24*IH.18.24+H.25*IH.18.25+H.26*IH.18.26+H.27*
IH.18.27+H.28*IH.18.28+H.29*IH.18.29}
-
948:PRE.17 ==PH.17*(H.Ol*IH.17.01+H.02*IH.17.02+H.03*
IH.17.03+H.04*IH.17.04+H.05*IM.17.05+H.06*IM.17.06+H.07*
IH.17.07+H.08*IH.17.08+H.09*IM.17.Q9+H.I0*IH.17.10+H.11*
IH.17.11+H.12*IH.17.12+H.13*IM.17.13+M.14*IH.17.14+H.l5*
IH.17.15+H.16*IM.17.16+H.17*IH.17.17+M.18*IH.17.18+H.l9*
IH.17.19+H.20*IH.17.20+H.21*IH.17.21+H.22*IH.17.22+H.23*
IH.17.23+H.24*IH.17.24+H.25*IH.17.25+H.26*IH.17.26+H.27*
IH.17.27+H.28*IH.17.28+H.29*IM.17.29)
1-19
949:
950:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~.
May 1983
PRE.16 z=PM.16*(M.Ol*IM.16.01+M.02*IM.16.02+M.03*
IM.16.03+M.04*IM.16.04+M.OS*IM.16.0S+M.06*IM.16.06+M.07*
IM.16.07+M.08*IM.16.08+M.09*IM.16.09+M.I0*IM.16.10+M.l1*
IM.16.11+M.12*IM.16.12+M.13*IM.16.13+M.14*IM.16.14+M.l5*
IM.16.1S+M.16*IM.16.16+M.17*IM.16.17+M.18*IM.16.18+M.l9*
IM.16.19+M.20*IM.16.20+M.21*IM.16.21+M.22*IM.16.22+M.23*
IM.16.23+M.24*IM.16.24+M.2S*IM.16.2S+M.26*IM.16.26+M.27*
IM.16.27+M.28*IM.16.28+M.29*IM.16.29)
PRE.lS ==PM.lS*(M.Ol*IM.lS.0l+M.02*IM.lS.02+M.03*
IM.lS.03+M.04*IM.lS.04+M.OS*IM.lS.0S+M.06*IM.lS.06+M.07*
IM~IS.07+M.08*IM.lS.08+M.09*IM.lS.09+M.10*IM.lS.10+M.11*
IM.lS.ll+M.12*IM.lS.12+M.13*IM.lS.13+M.14*IM.lS.14+M.l5*
IM.lS.lS+M.16*IM.lS.16+M.17*IM.lS.17+M.18*IM.lS.18+M.l9*
IM.lS.19+M.20*IM.lS.20+M.21*IM.lS.21+M.22*IM.lS.22+M.23*
IM.lS.23+M.24*IM.lS.24+M.2S*IM.lS.2S+M.26*IM.lS.26+M.27*
IM.lS.27+M.28*IM.lS.28+M.29*IM.lS.29)
951:PRE.14 ==PM.14*(M.Ol*IM.14.01+M.02*IM.14.02+M.03*
IM.14.03+M.04*IM.14.04+M.OS*IM.14.0S+M.06*IM.14.06+M.07*
IM.14.07+M.08*IM.14.08+M.09*IM.14.09+M.I0*IM.14.10+M.l1*
IM.14.11+M.12*IM.14.12+M.13*IM.14.13+M.14*IM.14.14+M.l5*
IM.14.1S+M.16*IM.14.16+M.17*IM.14.17+M.18*IM.14.18+M.l9*
IM.14.19+M.20*IM.14.20+M.21*IM.14.21+M.22*IM.14.22+M.23*
IM.14.23+M.24*IM.14.24+M.2S*IM.14.2S+M.26*IM.14.26+M.27*
IM.14.27+M.28*IM.14.28+M.29*IM.14.29)
952:
953:
PRE.13 z=PM.13*(M.Ol*IM.13.01+M.02*IM.13.02+M.03*
IM.13.03+M.04*IM.13.04+M.OS*IM.13.0S+M.06*IM.13.06+M.07*
IM.13.07+M.08*IM.13.08+M.09*IM.13.09+M.I0*IM.13.10+M.l1*
IM.13.11+M.12*IM.13.12+M.13*IM.13.13+M.14*IM.13.14+M.l5*
IM.13.1S+M.16*IM.13.16+M.17*IM.13.17+M.18*IM.13.18+M.l9*
IM.13.19+M.20*IM.13.20+M.21*IM.13.21+M.22*IM.13.22+M.23*
IM.13.23+M.24*IM.13.24+M.25*IM.13.2S+M.26*IM.13.26+M.27*
IM.13.27+M.28*IM.13.28+M.29*IM.13.29)
PRE.12 ==PM.12*(M.Ol*IM.12.01+M.02*IM.12.02+M.03*
IM.12.03+M.04*IM.12.04+M.OS*IM.12.0S+M.06*IM.12.06+M.07*
IM.12.07+M.08*IM.12.08+M.09*IM.12.09+M.I0*IM.12.10+M.l1*
IM.12.11+M.12*IM.12.12+M.13*IM.12.13+M.14*IM.12.14+M.l5*
IM.12.1S+M.16*IM.12.16+M.17*IM.12.17+M.18*IM.12.18+M.l9*
IM.12.19+M.20*IM.12.20+M.21*IM.12.21+M.22*IM.12.22+M.23*
IM.12.23+M.24*IM.12.24+M.2S*IM.12.2S+M.26*IM.12.26+M.27*
IM.12.27+M.28*IM.12.28+M.29*IM.12.29)
1-20
-
-
;~1
--I
I
954:
955:
956:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
PRE.ll ::::::::PK.1l*(K.01*IK.1l.01+K.02*IK.11.02+K.03*
IK.11.03+K.04*IK.11.04+K.05*IK.11.05+K.06*IK.11.06+K.O7*
IK.11.07+K.08*IK.11.08+K.09*IK.11.09+K.10*IK.11.10+K.11*
IK.11.11+K.12*IK.11.12+K.13*IK.11.13+K.14*IK.11.14+K.15*
IK.11.15+K.16*IK.11.16+K.17*IK.11.17+K.18*IK.11.18+K.19*
IK.11.19+K.20*IK.11.20+K.21*IK.11.21+K.22*IK.11.22+K.23*
IK.11.23+K.24*IK.11.24+K.25*IK.11.25+K.26*IK.11.26+K.27*
IK.11.27+K.28*IK.11.28+K.29*IK.11.29)
PRE.10 ::::::::PK.10*(K.01*IK.10.01+K.02*IK.10.02+K.03*
IK.10.03+K.04*IK.10.04+K.05*IK.10.05+K.06*IK.10.06+K.O7*
IK.10.07+K.08*IK.10.08+K.09*IK.10.09+K.10*IK.10.10+K.11*
IK.10.11+K.12*IK.10.12+K.13*IK.10.13+K.14*IK.10.14+K.15*
IK.10.15+K.16*IK.10.16+K.17*IK.10.17+K.18*IK.10.18+K.19*
IK.10.19+K.20*IK.10.20+K.21*IK.10.21+K.22*IK.10.22+K.23*
IK.10.23+K.24*IK.10.24+K.25*IK.10.25+K.26*IK.10.26+K.27*
IK.10.27+K.28*IK.10.28+K.29*IK.10.29)
PRE.09 ::::::::PK.09*(K.01*IK.09.01+K.02*IK.09.02+K.03*
IK.09.03+K.04*IK.09.04+K.05*IK.09.05+K.06*IK.09.06+K.O7*
IK.09.07+K.08*IK.09.08+K.09*IK.09.09+K.10*IK.09.10+K.11*
IK.09.11+K.12*IK.09.12+K.13*IK.09.13+K.14*IK.09.14+K.15*
IK.09.15+K.16*IK.09.16+K.17*IK.09.17+K.18*IK.09.18+M.19*
IK.09.19+K.20*IK.09.20+M.21*IK.09.21+K.22*IK.09.22+M.23*
IK.09.23+K.24*IK.09.24+K.25*IK.09.25+K.26*IK.09.26+K.27*
IK.09.27+K.28*IK.09.28+K.29*IK.09.29)
957:PRE.08 ==PK.08*(K.01*IK.08.01+K.02*IK.08.02+K.03*
IK.08.03+K.04*IK.08.04+K.05*IM.08.05+K.06*IM.08.06+K.O7*
IK.08.07+K.08*IK.08.08+K.09*IK.08.09+K.10*IK.08.10+K.11*
IK.08.11+K.12*IK.08.12+K.13*IK.08.13+K.14*IK.08.14+K.15*
IK.08.15+K.16*IK.08.16+K.17*IK.08.17+M.18*IK.08.18+K.19*
IK.08.19+K.20*IK.08.20+M.21*IK.08.21+K.22*IK.08.22+K.23*
IK.08.23+K.24*IK.08.24+K.25*IK.08.25+K.26*IK.08.26+K.27*
IK.08.27+K.28*IK.08.28+K.29*IK.08.29)
958:PRE.07 ==PK.07*(K.01*IK.07.01+K.02*IK.07.02+M.03*
IK.07.03+K.04*IK.07.04+K.05*IK.07.05+K.06*IK.07.06+K.O7*
IK.07.07+K.08*IK.07.08+K.09*IK.07.09+K.10*IK.07.10+K.11*
IK.07.11+K.12*IM.07.12+K.13*IK.07.13+K.14*IK.07.14+K.15*
IM.07.15+K.16*IK.07.16+M.17*IK.07.17+K.18*IK.07.18+K.l9*
IK.07.19+M.20*IK.07.20+K.21*IK.07.21+K.22*IM.07.22+M.23*
IK.07.23+K.24*IK.07.24+K.25*IK.07.25+K.26*IK.07.26+K.27*
IK.07.27+M.28*IK.07.28+M.29*IK.07.29)
1-21
959:
960:
961:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
PRE.06 ==PK.06~(K.01~IK.06.01+K.02~IK.06.02+K.03*
IK.06.03+K.04~IK.06.04+K.05~IK.06.05+K.06~IK.06.06+K.07~
IK.06.07+K.08~IK.06.08+K.09~IK.06.09+K.10~IK.06.10+K.11~
IK.06.11+K.12~IK.06.12+K.13~IK.06.13+K.14~IK.06.14+K.15*
IK.06.15+K.16~IK.06.16+K.17~IK.06.17+K.18~IK.06.18+K.19*
IK.06.19+K.20~IK.06.20+K.21~IK.06.21+K.22~IK.06.22+K.23~
IK.06.23+K.24~IK.06.24+K.25~IK.06.25+K.26~IK.06.26+K.27~
IK.06.27+K.28~IK.06.28+K.29~IK.06.29)
PRE.05 ==PK.05~(K.01~IK.05.01+K.02~IK.05.02+K.03*
IK.05.03+K.04~IK.05.04+K.05~IK.05.05+K.06~IK.05.06+K.07~
IK.05.07+K.08~IK.05.08+K.09~IK.05.09+K.10~IK.05.10+K.11~
IK.05.11+K.12~IK.05.12+K.13~IK.05.13+K.14*IK.05.14+K.15~
IK.05.15+K.16~IK.05.16+K.17~IK.05.17+K.18~IK.05.18+K.19~
IK.05.19+K.20~IK.05.20+K.21~IK.05.21+K.22~IK.05.22+K.23~
IK.05.23+K.24~IK.05.24+K.25~IK.05.25+K.26~IK.05.26+K.27~
IK.05.27+K.28~IK.05.28+K.29~IK.05.29)
PRE.04 ==PK.04~(K.01~IK.04.01+K.02~IM.04.02+K.03~
IK.04.03+K.04~IK.04.04+K.05~IK.04.05+K.06*IK.04.06+K.07*
IK.04.07+K.08~IK.04.08+K.09~IK.04.09+K.10~IK.04.10+K.11~
IK.04.11+K.12~IK.04.12+K.13~IK.04.13+K.14~IK.04.14+K.15~
IK.04.15+K.16~IK.04.16+K.17~IK.04.17+K.18~IK.04.18+K.19~
IK.04.19+K.20~IK.04.20+K.21~IK.04.21+K.22~IK.04.22+K.23~
IK.04.23+K.24~IK.04.24+K.25~IK.04.25+K.26~IK.04.26+K.27~
IK.04.27+K.28~IK.04.28+K.29~IK.04.29)
"""'
-
-
-
-
-
""'"
962:PRE.03 ==PK.03~(K.01~IK.03.01+K.02~IK.03.02+K.03*
IK.03.03+K.04~IK.03.04+K.05~IK.03.05+K.06~IK.03.06+K.07*
IK.03.07+K.08~IK.03.08+K.09~IK.03.09+K.10~IK.03.10+K.11~
IK.03.11+K.12~IK.03.12+K.13~IK.03.13+K.14~IK.03.14+K.15*
IK.03.15+K.16*IK.03.16+K.17~IK.03.17+K.18~IK.03.18+K.19*
IK.03.19+K.20~IK.03.20+K.21~IK.03.21+M.22*IK.03.22+K.23*
IK.03.23+K.24~IK.03.24+K.25~IK.03.25+K.26~IK.03.26+K.27~
IK.03.27+K.28~IK.03.28+K.29*IK.03.29)
963~PRE.02 ==PK.02~(K.01~IK.02.~1+K.02~IK.02.02+K.03*
IK.02.03+K.04~IK.02.04+K.05~IK.02.05+K.06*IM.02.06+M.07~
IK.02.07+K.08~IK.02.08+M.09~IM.02.09+M.IO~IK.02.10+K.11~
IK.02.11+K.12~IK.02.12+K.13~IK.02.13+M.14~IK.02.14+K.15*
IK.02.15+K.16~IK.02.16+K.17~IK.02.17+K.18~IK.02.18+K.19*
IK.02.19+K.20~IM.02.20+K.21~IK.02.21+K.22~IM.02.22+K.23*
IK.02.23+K.24~IK.02.24+K.25~IK.02.25+K.26~IM.02.26+K.27~
IK.02.27+M.28~IK.02.28+K.29~IK.02.29)
1-22
"""
-.
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
964:PRE.Ol ::PH.Ol*(H.Ol*IH.Ol.Ol+H.02*IH.Ol.02+H.03*
IH.Ol.03+H.04*IH.Ol.04+H.05*IH.Ol.05+H.06*IH.Ol.06+H.07*
IH.Ol.07+H.08*IH.Ol.08+H.09*IH.Ol.09+H.lO*IH.Ol.lO+H.l1*
IM.Ol.ll+H.l2*IH.Ol.12+H.13*IH.Ol.l3+H.14*IH.Ol.14+H.l5*
IH.Ol.15+H.16*IH.Ol.l6+H.17*IH.Ol.17+H.18*IH.Ol.18+H.l9*
IH.Ol.19+H.20*IH.Ol.20+H.2l*IH.Ol.2l+H.22*IH.Ol.22+H.23*
IH.Ol.23+H.24*IH.Ol.24+H.25*IH.Ol.25+H.26*IH.Ol.26+H.27*
IH.Ol.27+H.28*IH.Ol.28+H.29*IH.Ol.29)
965:
966:
PRE.ST ::PRE.Ol+PRE.02+PRE.03+PRE.04+PRE.05+PRE.06+
PRE.07+PRE.08+PRE.09+PRE.lO+PRE.ll+PRE.l2+PRE.l3+PRE.l4+
PRE.l5+PRE.l6+PRE.l7+PRE.l8+PRE.19+PRE.20+PRE.2l+PRE.22+
PRE.23+PRE.24+PRE.25+PRE.26+PRE.27+PRE.28+PRE.29
ADJ --POP/PRE.ST
I!""'Population in region Divisions)(P.aa)aa (1970 Census
967:P.29 --PRE.29*ADJ
968:P.28 --PRE.28*ADJ
969:P.27 --PRE.27*ADJ
970:P.26 --PRE.26*ADJ
971:P.25 --PRE.25*ADJ
972:P.24 --PRE.24*ADJ
973:P.23 --PRE.23*ADJ
974:P.22 --PRE.22*ADJ
975:P.2l --PRE.2l*ADJ
976:P.20 --PRE.20*ADJ
977:P.19 --PRE.19*ADJ-978:P.18 --PRE.l8*ADJ
~~979:P.17 --PRE.l7*ADJ
980:P.16 PRE.l6*ADJ
!"'"
1-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
""'"981:P.15 --PRE.15*ADJ
982:P.14 --PRE.14*ADJ
983:P.13 --PRE.13*ADJ
984:P.12 --PRE.12*ADJ
985:P.ll --PRE.ll*ADJ
986:P.10 --PRE.10*ADJ
987:P.09 --PRE.09*ADJ
988:P.08 --PRE.08*ADJ
989:P.07 --PRE.07*ADJ
990:P.06 --PRE.06*ADJ
991:P.05 --PRE.05*ADJ
992:P.04 --PRE.04*ADJ
993:P.03 --PRE.03*ADJ
994:P.02 --PRE.02*ADJ
995:P.01 --PRE.01*ADJ
996:P.ST --P.01+P.02+P.03+P.04+P.05+P.06+P.07+P.08+P.09+
P.10+P.11+P.12+P.13+P.14+P.1S+P.16+P.17+P.18+P.19+P.20+
P.21+P.22+P.23+P.24+P.25+P.26+P.27+P.28+P.29
-
.""'1).
997:P.RB --P.02+P.09+P.12+P.17+P.21+P.24+P.26
998:P.NR --P.ST-P.RB
999:P.AM --P.02+P.17
1000:P.AG --P.AM+P.21+P.12 -.
1001:P.FG --P.09+P.24 -.
1-24
Institute of Social
and Economic Research-MAP Documentation
May 1983
Population (PCEN.cc)in region cc (1980 Census Divisions)
1002:PCEN.01 --P.04
1003:PCEN.02 --P.14
f'I'"1004:PCEN.03 P.18--
1005 :PCEN.04 --P.29+P.16~PC.04.16+P.2S~PC.04.2S
1006:PCEN.OS --P.09
1007:PCEN.06 =P.24+P.2S~PC.06.2S
1008:PCEN.07 --P.27
1009:PCEN.08 --P.OS+P.16~PC.08.16
1010:PCEN.09 --P.07
1011:PCEN.10 --P.06
1012:PCEN.11 --P.01
1013:PCEN.12 --P.17
1014:PCEN.13 --P.02
1015:PCEN.14 --P.12+P.21
"....
1016:PCEN.1S --P.1S
1017:PCEN.16 --P.08+P.26
1018:PCEN.17 --P.23+P.03
1019:PCEN.18 --P.10
1020:PCEN.19 --P.ll
,....
1021:PCEN.20 --P.22
1022:PCEN.21 --P.28
~
1023:PCEN.22 --P.20+P.19
1024:PCEN.23 --P.13
1-25
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Preliminary Household Estimate (HPRE.cc)for region cc
1025:HPRE.01 --(PCEN.01-PGQ.01)/HHSZ.01
1026:HPRE.02 --(PCEN.02-PGQ.02)/HHSZ.02
1027:HPRE.03 --(PCEN.03-PGQ.03)/HHSZ.03
1028:HPRE.04 --(PCEN.04-PGQ.04)/HHSZ.04
1029:HPRE.05 --(PCEN.05-PGQ.05)/HHSZ.05
1030:HPRE.06 --(PCEN.06-PGQ.06)/HHSZ.06
1031:HPRE.07 --(PCEN.07-PGQ.07)/HHSZ.07
1032:HPRE.08 --(PCEN.08-PGQ.08)/HHSZ.08
1033:HPRE.09 --0
1034:HPRE.10 --(PCEN.10-PGQ.10)/HHSZ.10
1035:HPRE.n --(PCEN.11-PGQ.11)/HHSZ.11
1036:HPRE.12 --(PCEN.12-PGQ.12)/HHSZ.12
1037 :HPRE.13 --(PCEN.13-PGQ.13)/HHSZ.13
1038:HPRE.14 --(PCEN.14-PGQ.14)/HHSZ.14
1039:HPRE.15 --(PCEN.15-PGQ.15)/HHSZ.15
1040:HPRE.16 --(PCEN.16-PGQ.16)/HHSZ.16
1041:HPRE.17 ==0
1042:HPRE.18 --0
1043:HPRE.19 --(PCEN.19-PGQ.19)/HHSZ.19
1044:HPRE.20 --0
1045:HPRE.21 ==0
1046:HPRE.22 --0
1047:HPRE.23 ==0
1-26
-
-
--
-
~,
"""
-
1048:
1049:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
HPRE.ST ==HPRE.01+HPRE.02+HPRE.03+HPRE.04+HPRE.05+
HPRE.06+HPRE.07+HPRE.08+HPRE.09+HPRE.10+HPRE.11+HPRE.1 2+
HPRE.13+HPRE.14+HPRE.15+HPRE. 16+HPRE.17+HPRE.18+HPRE.1 9+
HPRE.20+HPRE.21+HPRE.22+HPRE.23
ADJHH ==HH/HPRE.ST
1070:
1071:
1072:
1073:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
HHCEN.21 --HPRE.21~ADJHH
HHCEN.22 --HPRE.22*ADJHH
HHCEN.23 --HPRE.23*ADJHH
HHCEN.ST --HHCEN.01+HHCEN.02+HHCEN.03+HHCEN.04+HHCEN.05
+HHCEN.06+HHCEN.07+HHCEN.08+HHCEN.09+HHCEN.10+HHCEN.11+
HHCEN.12+HHCEN.13+HHCEN.14+HHCEN.15+HHCEN.16+HHCEN.17+
HHCEN.18+HHCEN.19+HHCEN.20+HHCEN.21+HHCEN.22+HHCEN.23
-
-
-
1074:B.1R --B.RB-B.26
1075:G.IR --G.RB-G.26
1076:S.IR --S.RB-S.26
1077:M.IR --M.RB-M.26
1078:P.IR --P.RB-P.26
-
Households (HH.aa)in region (1970 Census Divisions)-aa
1079:HH.AM --HHCEN.12+HHCEN.13 -1080:HH.AG --HH.AM+HHCEN.14
1081:HH.FG --HHCEN.05+HHCEN.06*(P.24/PCEN.06)
1082:HH.IR --HH.AG+HH.FG
-
,-
1-28 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research-MAP Documentation\
May 1983
PARAMETERS:
A.01.01 0.16 A.01.02 O.A.01.03 O.
A.01.04 O.A.01.05 O.A.01.06 O.
A.01.07 O.A.01.08 O.A.01.09 O.
A.01.10 O.A.01.11 O.A.01.12 O.
A.01.l3 O.A.01.14 O.A.01.15 O.
!"""A.01.16 O.A.01.17 O.A.01.18 O.
A.01.19 O.A.01.20 O.A.01.21 O.
A.01.22 O.A.01.23 O.A.01.24 O.
A.01.25 O.A.01.26 O.A.01.27 O.
A.01.28 O.A.01.29 O.A.02.01 0.84
A.02.02 1.A.02.03 O.A.02.04 0.73
f'«"A.02.05 O.A.02.06 0.44 A.02.07 O.
A.02.08 0.41 A.02.09 O.A.02.10 O.
A.02.11 0.19 A.02.12 0.08 A.02.13 O.
r""A.02.14 0.01 A.02.15 0.43 A.02.16 O.
A.02.17 O.A.02.18 O.A.02.19 O.
A.02.20 O.A.02-.21 0.28 A.02.22 O.,-
A.02.23 O.A.02.24 0.7 A.02.25 O.
A.02.26 0.21 A.02.27 O.A.02.28 O.
A.02.29 0.25 A.03.01 O.A.03.02 O.
:~A.03.03 O.A.03.04 O.A.03.05 O.
A.03.06 O.A.03.07 O.A.03.08 O.
A.03.09 O.A.03.10 O.A.03.11 O.
A.03.12 O.A.03.l3 O.A.03.14 O.
A.03.15 O.A.03.16 O.A.03.17 O.
A.03.18 O.A.03.19 O.A.03.20 O.
!"""A.03.21 O.A.03.22 O.A.03.23 O.
A.03.24 O.A.03.25 O.A.03.26 O.
A.03.27 O.A.03.28 O.A.03.29 O.
A.04.01 O.A.04.02 O.A.04.03 O.
A.04.04 0.27 A.04.05 O.A.04.06 O.
A.04.07 O.A.04.08 O.A.04.09 O.
A.04.10 O.A.04.11 O.A.04.12 O.
A.04.13 O.A.04.14 O.A.04.15 O.
A.04.16 O.A.04.17 O.A.04.18 O.
..-A.04.19 O.A.04.20 O.A.04.21 O.
A.04.22 O.A.04.23 O.A.04.24 O.
A.04.25 O.A.04.26 O.A.04.27 O.....A.04.28 O.A.04.29 O.A.05.01 O.
A.05.02 O.A.05.03 O.A.05.04 O.
A.05.05 1.A.05.06 O.A.05.07 O.
A.05.08 O.A.05.09 O.A.05.10 O.
A.05.11 O.A.05.12 O.A.05.13 O.
A.05.14 O.A.05.15 O.A.05.16 O.
r"'f"
1-29
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation ~
May 1983
A.OS.17 O.A.OS.18 O.A.OS.19 O..-
A.OS.20 O.A.OS.21 O.A.OS.22 O.
A.OS.23 O.A.OS.24 O.A.OS.2S O.
A.OS.26 O.A.OS.27 0.49 A.OS.28 O.
A.OS.29 O.A.06.01 O.A.06.02 O.
A.06.03 O.A.06.04 O.A.06.0S O.
A.06.06 0.S6 A.06.07 O.A.06.08 O.
A.06.09 O.A.06.10 O.A.06.11 O....
A.06.12 O.A.06.13 O.A.06.14 O.
A.06.1S O.A.06.16 O.A.06.17 O.
A.06.18 O.A.06.19 O.A.06.20 O.
A.06.21 O.A.06.22 O.A.06.23 O.
A.06.24 O.A.06.2S O.A.06.26 O.
A.06.27 O.A.06.28 O.A.06.29 O."""
A.07.01 O.A.07.02 O.A.07.03 O.
A.07.04 O.A.07.0S O.A.07.06 O.
A.07.07 O.A.07.08 O.A.07.09 O.-A.07.10 O.A.07.11 O.A.07.12 O.
A.07.13 O.A.07.14 O.A.07.1S O.
i!I!'I'lA.07.16 O.A.07.17 O.A.07.18 O.
A.07.19 O.A.07.20 O.A.07.21 O.
A.07.22 O.A.07.23 O.A.07.24 O.
A.07.2S O.A.07.26 O.A.07.27 O.-A.07.28 O.A.07.29 O.A.08.01 O.
A.08.02 O.A.08.03 O.A.08.04 O.
A.08.0S O.A.08.06 O.A.08.07 O.-A.08.08 O.S9 A.08.09 O.A.08.10 O.
A.08.11 O.A.08.12 O.A.08.13 O.
-.A.08.14 O.A.08.1S O.A.08.16 O.
A.08.17 O.A.08.18 O.A.08.19 O.
A.08.20 O.A.08.21 O.A.08.22 O.
A.08.23 O.A.08.24 O.A.08.2S O.-,
A.08.26 O.A.08.27 O.A.08.28 O.
A.08.29 O.A.09.01 O.A.09.02 O.
A.09.03 O.A.09.04 O.A.09.0S O.
A.09.06 O.A.09.07 O.A.09.08 O.
A.09.09 1.A.09.10 O.A.09.11 O.
A.09.12 O.A.09.13 O.A.09.14 O.-A.09.lS O.A.09.16 0.4S A.09.17 O.
A.09.18 O.A.09.19 O.A.09.20 O.
A.09.21 O.A.09.22 O.A.09.23 O.
A.09.24 O.A.09.2S 0.41 A.09.26 O.
A.09.27 O.A.09.28 O.A.09.29 0.24
A.lO.Ol O.A.lO.02 O.A.lO.03 O.II'IIlA.lO.04.O.A.lO.OS O.A.lO.06 O.
A.IO.07 O.A.lO.08 O.A.lO.09 O.
1-30
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
I"""MAP Documentation
May 1983
A.lO.lO O.A.IO.ll O.A.IO.12 O.
A.IO.13 O.A.lO.14 O.A.IO.IS O.
A.lO.16 O.A.lO.17 O.A.lO.18 O.
f"'"A.IO.19 O.A.lO.20 O.A.IO.21 O.
A.lO.22 O.A.IO.23 O.A.lO.24 O.
A.IO.2S O.A.IO.26 O.A.lO.27 O.
A.lO.28 O.A.IO.29 O.A.ll.OI O.
A.ll.02 O.A.II.03 O.A.lI.04 O.
A.ll.OS O.A.II.06 O.A.II.07 O.
A.ll.08 O.A.II.09 O.A.ll.lO O.
A.n.ll 0.81 A.ll.12 O.A.ll.13 O.
A.lI.I4 O.A.ll.IS O.A.ll.16 O.-A.lI.I7 O.A.ll.18 O.A.1l.19 O.
A.II.20 O.A.lI.21 O.A.1l.22 O.
A.1l.23 O.A.ll.24 O.A.ll.2S O.
A.1l.26 O.A.ll.27 O.A.ll.28 O.
A.II.29 O.A.12.0l O.A.12.02 ,0.
A.12.03 O.A.12.04 O.A.12.0S O.
A.12.06 O.A.12.07 O.A.12.08 O.,-
A.12.09 O.A.12.10 O.A.12.ll O.
A.12.l2 0.92 A.12.l3 O.A.12.l4 O.
A.12.lS O.A.12.l6 O.A.12.17 O.
A.12.18 O.A.12.l9 O.A.12.20 O.
A.12.2l O.A.12.22 O.A.12.23 O.
A.12.24 O.A.12.2S O.A.12.26 O.
A.12.27 O.A.12.28 O.A.12.29 O.
A.13.0l O.A.13.02 O.A.13.03 O.
A..13.04 O.A.13.0S O.A.13.06 O.,...
I A.13.07 O.A.13.08 0.,A.13.09 O.
A.13.l0 O.A.13.ll O.A.13.l2 O.
A.13.l3 O.A.13.14 O.A.13.lS O.
A.13.l6 O.A.13.17 O.A.13.l8 O.
A.13.19 O.A.13.20 O.A.13.2l O.
A.13.22 O.A.13.23 O.A.13.24 O.
r-A.13.2S O.A.13.26 O.A.13.27 O.I
I A.13.28 O.A.13.29 O.A.14.0l O.
A.14.0~O.A.14.03 O.A.14.04 O.
A.14.0S O.A.14.06 O.A.14.07 O.
A.14.08 O.A.14.09 O.A.14.l0 O.
A.14.1l O.A.14.l2 O.A.14.l3 O.
A.14.l4 0.71 A.14.lS O.A.14.l6 O.
A.14.17 O.A.14.l8 O.A.14.l9 O.
A.14.20 O.A.14.21 O.A.14.22 O.
A.14.23 O.A.14.24 O.A.14.2S O.
.A.14.26 O.A.14.27 O.A.14.28 O.
A.14.29 O.A.IS.OI O.A.lS.02 O.
1-31
..
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -Hay 1983
A.lS.03 O.A.lS.04 O.A.lS.OS O.
A.lS.06 O.A.lS.07 O.A.lS.08 O.-A.lS.09 O.A.lS.lO O.A.lS.ll O.
A.lS.12 O.A.lS.13 O.A.lS.14 O.
A.lS.lS 0.S7 A.lS.16 O.A.lS.17 O.-A.lS.18 O.A.lS.19 O.A.lS.20 O.
A.lS.2l O.A.lS.22 O.A.lS.23 O.
A.lS.24 O.A.lS.2S O.A.lS.26 O.
A.lS.27 O.A.lS.28 O.A.lS.29 O.
A.16.0l O.A.16.02 O.A.16.03 O.
A.16.04 O.A.16.0S O.A.16.06 O.~
A.16.07 O.A.16.08 O.A.16.09 O.
A.16.l0 O.A.16.11 O.A.16.l2 O.
A.16.l3 O.A.16.l4 O.A.16.lS O.
A.16.l6 O.SS A.16.l7 O.A.16.l8 O.
A.16.l9 O.A.16.20 O.A.16.2l O.
A.16.22 O.A.16.23 O.A.16.24 0,
A.16.2S O.A.16.26 O.A.16.27 O.-,
A.16.28 O.A.16.29 O.A.17.0l O.
A.17.02 O.A.l7.03 O.A.17.04 O.
A.17.0S O.A.17.06 O.A.17.07 O.
A.l7.08 O.A.17.09 O.A.lLlO O.
A.17.11 O.A.17 .12 O.A.17.l3 O.-A.17.l4 O.A.l7.lS O.A.17.l6 O.
A.17.l7 1.A.17.l8 O.A.17.l9 O.
A.17 .20 O.A.17.2l O.A.17.22 O.
A.17 .23 O.A.17.24 O.A.17.2S O.-A.17.26 O.A.17.27 O.A.17.28 O.
A.17.29 O.A.18.0l O.A.18.02 O.
A.18.03 O.A.18.04 O.A.18.0S O.
A.18.06 O.A.18.07 O.A.18.08 O.
A.18.09 O.A.18.l0 O.A.18.11 O.
A.18.l2 O.A.18.l3 O.A.18.14 0.28
A.18.lS O.A.18.l6 O.A.18.l7 O.
A.18.l8 1.A.18.l9 O.A.18.20 O.
A.18.2l O.A.18.22 O.A.18.23 O.
A.18.24 O.A.18.2S O.A.18.26 O.
A.18.27 O.A.18.28 O.A.18.29 O.~
A.19.0l O.A.19.02 O.A.19.03 O.
A.19,04 O.A.19.0S O.A.19.06 O.
A.19.07 O.A.19.08 O.A.19.09 O.
A.19.l0 O.A.19.11 O.A.19.l2 O.
A.19.l3 O.A.19.l4 O.A.19.lS O.
A.19.l6 O.A.19.17 O.A.19.l8 O.
A.19.l9 O.A.19.20 O.A.19.2l O.-A.19.22 O.A.19.23 O.A.19.24 O.
"""'!'
1-32
1-33
-:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
A.24.l8 O.A.24.l9 O.A.24.20 O.iI""i\I
A.24.2l O.A.24.22 O.A.24.23 O.
A.24.24 0.3 A.24.25 O.A.24.26 O.
A.24.27 O.A.24.28 O.A.24.29 O.
A.25.01 O.A.25.02 O.A.25.03 O.
A.25.04 O.A.25.05 O.A.25.06 O.
A.25.07 O.A.25.08 O.A.25.09 O.
A.25.l0 O.A.25.11 O.A.25.l2 O.
A.25.13 O.A.25.14 O.A.25.l5 O.
A.25.16 O.A.25.17 O.A.25.18 O.
A.25.l9 O.A.25.20 O.A.25.21 O.
A.25.22 O.A.25.23 O.A.25.24 O.
A.25.25 0.59 A.25.26 O.A.25.27 O.
A.25.28 O.A.25.29 O.A.26.01 O.~
A.26.02 O.A.26.03 O.A.26.04 O.
A.26.05 O.A.26.06 O.A.26.07 O.
A.26.08 O.A.26.09 O.A.26.10 O.
A.26.11 O.A.26.12 O.A.26.13 O.
A.26.14 O.A.26.15 O.A.26.16 O.
A.26.17 O.A.26 .18 O.A.26.19 O.
A.26.20 O.A.26.21 O.A.26.22 O.
A.26.23 O.A.26.24 O.A.26.25 O.
A.26.26 0.79 A.26.27 O.A.26.28 O.
A.26.29 O.A.27.01 O.A.27.02 O.
A.27.03 O.A.27.04 O.A.27.05 O.
A.27.06 O.A.27.07 O.A.27.08 O.~
A.27.09 O.A.27.10 O.A.27.11 O.
A.27.12 O.A.27.13 O.A.27.14 O.
A.27.15 O.A.27.16 O.A.27.17 O.
A.27.18 O.A.27.19 O.A.27.20 O.
A.27.21 O.A.27 .22 O.A.27.23 O.
A.27.24 O.A.27.25 O.A.27.26 O.
A.27.27 0.51 A.27.28 O.A.27.29 O.
A.28.01 O.A.28.02 O.A.28.03 O.
A.28.04 O.A.28.05 O.A.28.06 O.-A.28.07 O.A.28.08 O.A.28.09 O.
A.28.10 O.A.28.11 O.A.28.12 O.
A.28.13 O.A.28.14 O.A.28.15 O.~
A.28.16 O.A.28.17 O.A.28.18 O.
A.28.19 O.A.28.20 O.A.28.21 O.
A.28.22 O.A.28.23 O.A.28.24 O.-A.28.25 O.A.28.26 O.A.28.27 O.
A.28.28 O.A.28.29 O.A.29.01 O.
A.29.02 O.A.29.03 O.A.29.04 O.
A.29.05 O.A.29.06 O.A.29.07 O.
A.29.08 O.A.29.09 O.A.29.10 O.
"
1-34
1-35
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
IM.03.03 O.UL03.04 O.IM.03.05 O.~IM.03.06 O.IM.03.07 O.IM.03.08 O.
IM.03.09 O.IM.03.10 O.IM.03.11 O.
IM.03.12 O.IM.03.13 O.IM.03.14 O.
IM.03.15 O.IM.03.16 O.IM.03.17 O.
IM.03.18 O.IK.03.19 O.IM.03.20 O.
IM.03.21 O.IM.03.22 O.IM.03.23 O.
IM.03.24 O.IM.03.25 O.IM.03.26 O.
IM.03.27 O.IM.03.28 O.IM.03.29 O.
IM.04.01 O.IM.04.02 O.IM.04.03 O.-IM.04.04 0.078 IM.04.05 O.IM.04.06 O.
IM.04.07 O.IM.04.08 O.UL04.09 O.
IM.04.10 O.IM.04.11 O.IM.04.12 O.
IM.04.13 O.IM.04.14 O.IM.04.15 O.
IM.04.16 O.IM.04.17 O.IM.04.18 O.
IM.04.19 O.IM.04.20 O.IM.04.21 O.
IM.04.22 O.IM.04.23 O.IM.04.24 O.
IM.04.25 O.IM.04.26 O.IM.04.27 O.
IM.04.28 O.IM.04.29 O.IM.05.01 O.
IM.05.02 O.IM.05.03 O.IM.05.04 0.002
IM.05.05 0.861 IM.05.06 O.IM.05.07 O.
IM.05.08 O.IM.05.09 O.IM.05.10 O.
IM.05.11 O.IM.05.12 O.IM.05.13 O.""""IM.05.14 O.IM.0'5.15 0.02 IM.05.16 O.
IM.05.17 O.IM.05.18 O.IM.05.19 O.
IM.05.20 O.IM.05.21 O.IM.05.22 O.
IM.05.23 O.IM.05.24 O.IM.05.25 O.
1M.05 ..26 O.IM.05.27 O.IM.05.28 O.
IM.05.29 O.IM.06.01 O.IM.06.02 O."'"'
IM.06.03 O.IM.06.04 O.IM.06.05 O.
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IM.07.22 O.IM.07.23 O.UL07.24 O.-
1-36 -,
1-37
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
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IM.17.08 0.01 IM.17.09 O.IK.17.10 O.
"""!:
1-38 -
1-39
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -,
May 1983
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IK.26.23 O.1K.26.24 O.1M.26.25 O.
~,
1-40
,..,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
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""'"
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1K.29.02 O.IK.29.03 O.1K.29.04 0.005
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1M.29.26 O.IK.29.27 O.1K.29.28 O.
1M.29.29 0.611 PC.04.16 0.5079 PC.04.25 0.9475
,~PC.06.25 0.0525 PC.08.16 0.4921 PGQ.01 0.365
PGQ.02 0.048 PGQ.03 0.088 PGQ.04 0.614
PGQ.OS 3.339 PGQ.06 0.399 PGQ.07 0.055
PGQ.08 0.118 PGQ.09 O.PGQ.10 0.339
PGQ.ll 2.548 PGQ.12 0.324 PGQ.13 4.848
PGQ.14 0.32 PGQ.15 0.681 PGQ.16 0.702
PGQ.17 O.PGQ.18 O.PGQ.19 1.418
PGQ.20 O.PGQ.21 O.PGQ.22 O.
P~Q.23 O.PK.01 3.374 PM.02 2.066
PK.03 O.PM.04 7.1 PM.05 3.211
PK.06 2.977 PM.07 O.PM.08 2.629
PM.09 2.239 PK.10 O.PK.11 2.036
PK.12 2.624 PK.l3 O.PK.14 3.127
PM.1S 1.782 PK.16 5.506 PM.17 3.093
PM.18 3.961 PM.19 O.PK.20 O.
PK.21 3.893 PK.22 O.PM.23 O.r PK.24 3.895 PM.25 3.534 PK.26 2.141
PM.27 4.388 PK.28 O.PK.29 3.076
1-41
-
-
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX J.
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Procedure
A large number of sensitivity tests were run using the MAP
economic model to gauge the sensitivity of the results to variations
in (1)the economic development scenario,(2)national economic
growth assumptions,(3)state fiscal v-e.riable assumptions,and
(4)model coefficient (regression-determined)and parameter
(nonstochastically-determined)values,as well as model specifi-
cation (form of equations).1
The procedure for running the tests involved four steps.The
first was to compile a list of those input variables,parameters,
and model structural features,variations of which had previously
been shown to affect,were suspected to affect,or might be thought
to affect the level of MAP economic model output variables.This
resulted in a list of about 29 different cases--including variables
(data vectors)and parameters (or parameter sets)--for analysis.
The second step was to choose for each variable or parameter the
lowest and highest possible values which might be conceivable in the
year 2000.The idea was to bracket the most likely value,used in
the control simulation,with the effective end points of the
distribution of the variable.Choosing these values was,of
necessity,a subjective exercise based upon a combination of
historical patterns,knowledge of the economy and its structure,and
statistics.For each case examined,the most likely lowest and
highest values used are shown in Table J.1.2
1These tests were based upon a version of the model,A83.1,
which was used to generate projections in February 1983.The model,
A.83.lSEN,input data files A.83.1SEN and A83SEN,and control
program,&A83RUNSE,are similar to those used to produce the
projections for this report.The model gives slightly different
results,but this does not materially affect the results of this
analysis which are applicable to interpreting the results of model
version A83.2.
2In general,a data vector was adjusted so that it trended
over time from its actual 1982 value to the year 2000 value,while
parameters and coefficients were set at their alternative value for
the entire range of simulation.The only exception was the
parameter LFPART,which was trended toward its 2000 value of .68.
!O!lII
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
Hay 1983
TABLE J.1.MAP SENSITIVITY TESTS RESULTS ._,
Case Variable Value in 2000 (000)Households in 2000 (000)
~
Lowest Most likely Highest Lowest Highest
Exogenous Employment Variables
~COntrol Case 215.824(a)
1 Petroleum (EMP9)3.990 9.911 19.107 200.458 229.782
2 Hi 1i tary (EMGH)16.892 23.323 33.000 209.936 224.575
3 Tourists 1066 1566 2566 209.724 224.567 ~.
4 Gasline COnstruction
(1994 Peak Completion)221.725
5 Current Manufacturing -.
(EHMX2)8.205 12.122 16.000 210.106 220.833
6 Enclave Construction
(EHCNXl)0 1.000 2.000 212.523 217.971
"""7 Federal Civilian
(EMGC)17 .800 20.019 21.719 212.372 217.962
8 Fish Harvesting
(EHFISH)4.536 7.096 9.192 213.557 217.744 """
9 Construction (EHCNX2)0 0 1.000 215.119 217.579
10 Agriculture (EMAGRI).160 .508 2.000 215.436 217 .352
11 Pipelines (EMT9X)1.100 1.968 2.968 214.306 217.223
12 High Wage Hanu-
facturing (EHHX1)0 0 .486 215.824 216.610
National Economic Variables
13 Rea 1 Wage Growth -(GRRWEUS).005 .01 .015 211.335 223.723
14 Unemployment (UUS).05 .06 .075 211.161 222.178
15 Price Level Growth -(GRUSCPI).09 .065 .05 205.924 222.305
16 Price level Growth
with Petroleum
Revenues Adjusted .09 .065 .05 212.080 216.486
17 Real Income Growth
(GRDIRPU).005 .015 .025 215.493 216.272
(a)In 1981 households total 137.018.
-
J-2 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE J.l.(continued)
State Fiscal Variables
case Variable Rate Households in 2000 (000)
r lowest Host likely Highest lowest Highest
I"""'18 Petroleum Revenues
(RPTS,RPRY,RTCSPX)10\50\90\195.969 224.855
lSa Post 1999 Petroleum Revenues
(Extrapolation Rate -
period of
calculation)1995-99 1997-99 241.491 (2010)243.218(2010)
19 Operations -
Capita 1 Split
(5/6 Operations,
1/6 capital)219.958
Hodel Parameters
20 Average Household
Size (b)2.932 2.549 2.2 187.631 250.062
21 labor Force
1""'.Participation Rate
lFPART .9338 .78 .68 177.84 238.145
22 Support Sector Elasticities
(to weal th)
C71E .ססoo3 .ססoo5 .00008 193.821 243.698
C84D .00005 .ססoo9 .00015
23 Migration Sensitivity
CMIG2 3.32 14.12 24.92 195.413 240.146
CMIG3 21.8 49.22 76.62
CMIG4 .76 .96
1.15
24 Alaskan Price level
!"'"C67A -.1 -.3 -.5
215.781 227.165
(b)No simulation necessary to obtain the result.
J-3
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE J.1.(con ti nued)-
Model Parameters
Case Variable Rate Households in 2000 (000)
Lowest Most Likely Highest Lowest Highest If'li!II!IJ
25 Support Sector Elasticities
(to Income)-
Cl1B .0084 .017 .0252 206.592 225.466
ca4B .0234 .047 .0102
~
26 Alaska Relative wage
Rate Growth
CxxB .5 various 2 213.138 220.350
21 Federal Tax Bite
C26B 1.042 1.00 .966 212.608 218.656 -J
28 Wealth Variable 216.221 !
C68i
C7li IlIII'-'l-
caOi
ca3i
ca4i -
29 Construction Sector 213.916
Activity specification
C54i ~
.....
.....
.....
J-4 -
mix of
and the
only onei"
r
""
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The sensitivity tests involving the gas pipeline,the
government expenditures,the specification of wealth,
specification of exogenous construction employment involved
rather than a high and low alternative to the control case.
Third,each variable or parameter in turn was perturbed from the
control case level and the model simulated.Summary results for
each of these simulations are shown in Table J.l.Detailed results
are available upon request from ISER.
Finally,the cases were informally ranked in terms of the
sensitivity of the number of households statewide to the variable or
parameter perturbation to the highest possible value (in relation to
increasing the number of households).Households was chosen because
the electricity load is most sensitive to this output variable.
Results
The most important result of the sensitivity tests is the
demonstration that the simulation results are more sensitive to the
values chosen for several of the parameters than to variation in
employment and state fi scal assumptions.In particular,the number
of household is most sensitive to average household size and the
labor force participation rate.A substantial reduction in ei ther
the average household size or in the labor force participation rate,
other things equal,could rai se the number of households in 2000
16 percent and 10 percent,respectively,above the control case.In
contrast,the highest likely level of petroleum employment would
increase households over the base case by 6.5 percent,while the
highest likely level of petroleum revenues would increase households
by 4.2 percent.
The implication of this conclusion is that a substantial portion
of the potential error of projection can arise not from the economic
scenario or fiscal policy assumptions,but rather in incorrect
parameter values within the structure of the model.This is a
source of potential error that cannot be altogether eliminated and
is understandably large ·for the Alaska economic model.The reasons
relate to three factors:(1)poor quality data,(2)substantial
structural change in the past,and (3)small size of the economy.
Consequently,past structural relationships are difficult to specify
as well as might be hoped,and future values defining those
relationships are subject to substantial variations which are not
possible to eliminate by additional analysis of existing data.
In short,reasonable arguments can be raised for a number of
different values for parameters such as household size and the labor
force participation rate in future years.None can be proven
correct or incorrect.
J-S
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
When interpreting the results of these sensitivity tests,the
assumption of other things constant (ceteris parabis)should be kept
in mind.In fact.it is unlikely that variation in one parameter or
variable would not be accompanied by change in other parameters
affecting output either in the same or opposite direction.For
example,if the average household size did actually fall to
2.2 persons in 2000.it is likely that the labor force participation
rate would rise from its current lev.e!.These two countervailing
movements would have opposing effects and would tend to moderate
change in the number of households.
Closely related to household size and labor force part icipation
rate in affecting population and,thus,households,is the
specification of the net migration equation.Simultaneously
increasing and decreasing all coefficients of this equation by two
standard errors shows the possible range of outcomes which this
equation can generate.This equation tends to be self-correcting,
since higher net migration rates increase unemployment,which
increases outmigration.
Economic activity and,consequently,households,are sensitive
to the growth in support sector employment.This was tested by
examining the coefficients on income and wealth as well as the
specification of wealth in the equations determining support sector
demand levels.Since wealth is highly correlated with income,the
sensitivity reported here is an overestimate;but it is clear that
this is one of the critical model areas.
-,
-
-
The simulations are relatively insensitive to variation in three
areas of model specification.First,there is little sensitivity to
the share of personal income siphoned off as federal taxes.Second,
variation in the elasticity of real wage rate growth compared to the
U.S.average has only a modest effect.Third,an adjustment for a
possible misspecification of the construction demand equation has a
small effect.3 .
A final sensitive area in
price level.If the Alaska
9 percent of the U.S.average
significant impetus to economic
term~of parameters is the Alaskan
price level were to move within
level by 2000 thi s would provide a
growth.
-
-
3Current practice in the model treats only Alyeska pipeline
construction employment as exogenous during the historical period.
This test arbitrarily assumes a constant pos i ti ve historical level
of other exogenous construction employment and a new construction
demand equation is estimated.
J-6
-
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r-
!
-I
f""
t
r
I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Turning to fiscal policy variables,if the level of petroleum
revenues is increased from the 50 to 90 percent Alaska Department of
Revenue case,this has a larger impact than changing the mix of
acti vities.Since the Department of Revenue proj ections only cover
the years through 1999,the method used for extrapo1at ion to the
year 2010 was tested.Households was insensitive to this.
The simulation is moderately sensitive to the values chosen for
two national variables which affect the Alaskan economy.These are
the growth in the average real weekly wage and the U.S.unemployment
rate.The growth in the price level,ceteris paribus,is a
sensitive variable,but it operates primarily by affecting the level
of real petroleum revenues.When real,rather than nominal,
petroleum revenues are held constant and the test is repeated,the
sensitivity of simulation to the national price level falls to
practically zero.
The number of households in 2000 is insensitive to variation in
most of the exogenous employment variables.Tests on most
employment variables produce less sensitivity than most of the
parameters,fiscal variables,and national growth rates.The most
sensitive employment variables are petroleum,military,and
tourists;primarily due to their large size,but also their
potential range of variation.The sensitivity of several industries
is quite modest.
Although the analysis has been presented in terms of the
increase in the number of households to variations in parameters and
variables,it is instructive to examine the downside sensitivity
also.It is clear from an examination of Table J-l that the
distribution of households in some tests is not symmetrical,but
rather is skewed towards higher values.This results basically from
more uncertainty about maximum values parameters and variables may
assume.
J-7
r
APPENDIX K
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
SCENARIO DOCUMENTATION
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE OF CONTENTS
-
-
K.l.Summary of Base Case Assumptions
K.2.Aggregate Base Case Variables.
K.3.Scenario Case Files for Base Case
Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline
K-1
K-ll
K-17
K-19
2.
3.
4.
5.
North Slope Petroleum Development
Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production
Tertiary Recovery of North Slope oil
Federal OCS Exploration and Development
K-23
K-27
K-3l
K-35
Sa.
Sb.
5c.
Beaufort Sea OCS Employment Assumptions
(Sales 71,87,and 97).K-37
Norton Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 57 and 100)••K-43
St.George Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 70,89,and 101)....K-49
5d.
Se.
Sf.
Navarin Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 83 and 107).
Barrow Arch OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 85 and 109).•
North Aleutian Shelf OCS Employment
Assumptions (Sale 92).
K-SS
K-6l
K-6S
Sg.Cook Inlet,Kodiak,and Shumagin OCS Employ-
ment Assumptions (Sales 88,86,and 99)K-69
Sh.Federal OCS Development:state Property
Tax Revenue Assumptions K-7S
6.
7 .
8.
9.
Anchorage Oil Headquarters
Beluga-Chuitna Coal Production
Tyee and Terror Lakes Hydro
APA Hydro Projects
K-77
K-8l
K-8S
K-89
'"'""
-
-
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
u.s.Borax Mine near Ketchikan
Greens Creek Mine
Red Dog Mine
other Mining
Agriculture .
Forest and Lumber Products
Pulp Mill Employment
Commercial Fishing (Nonbottomfish)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
K-93
K-97
K-101
K-105
K-111
K-115
K-119
K-123
r
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Catcher-Processor-Dominated Bottomfishing
Federal Military
Federal Civilian
Tourism
Petroleum Revenues
K-129
K-133
K-139
K-145
K-147
K.l.Summary of Base Case Assumptions
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Ii'"
I
M'"
I
:.1
r
I
The base case assumptions currently in place for simulating with
the MAP Economic Modeling System are summarized in Table K.l.This
table describes the assumptions used in three areas--national
variables,exogenous employment variables (economic scenario),and
state fiscal variables.
The base case assumptions have been developed to represent,in
the aggregate,a median outcome for future economic and fiscal
condi tions affecting the Alaskan economy.Thi sis in contrast to
both the most likely outcome (mode)and the average outcome (mean).
The difference ~ong the three measures can be discussed with
reference to Figure K.l which portrays the hypothetical distribution
of all the possible values that an exogenous employment variable may
assume in,for ex~ple,the year 2000.
The distribution is skewed to the right because very large
positive values are possible with some small probability greater
than zero,while values less than zero are impossible.The most
likely outcome (mode)has the highest probability of occurence,but
may have a value (in this case,one thousand)less than the majority
of the possible outcomes.The median is the value where SO percent
of the outcomes have lower values,while 50 percent have higher
values.The mean (simple average)exceeds the median since it is
the average of the values of all possible outcomes.
Only one value from the distribution will be the actual outcome
in the year 2000,and the question is which measure of central
tendency best represents that unknown outcome in a base case
simulation.The median is used because of obvious deficiencies in
the other two measures.
Although the model is the most likely outcome,the majori ty of
outcomes could be higher,as in Figure K.I,or lower.Use of the
mode could then be unrepresentative of the universe of possible
outcomes.For ex~ple,the three possible uses of North Slope gas
and their respective probabilities could be (1)pipeline to
lower--48-40 percent,(2)conversion to methanol--30 percent,(3)
reinjection--30 percent.Although the pipeline alternative alone
has the highest probabi Ii ty because it is unrepresentative of the
other outcomes which together are more likely,choice of the mode
would produce a biased result.
Likewise,the choice of the mean value can result in bias if the
distribution of possible outcomes is skewed as in Figure K.l.For
example,there is a small probabili ty of very large petroleum
revenues in the year 2000.Most outcomes have smaller associated
revenues.Since only a single outcome is possible,the low
probability high outcomes should be discounted in the calculation of
the base case because they are so unlikely.
FIGURE K 1
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
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Probability
Distribution
of
Possible Values for Exogenous Employment
Employment
(in thousands)
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May 1983
With that general framework in mind,the base case assumptions
have been chosen on the basis of concensus among the economists at
ISER.The process builds upon a documented eight-year experience of
scenario construction for the MAP models which has,from time to
time,utilized a large number of sources,individuals within and
without ISER,and techniques including probability encoding and
interagency committee.The base case scenario is constructed so
that in the aggregate,rather than in any of its individual
elements,it represents the median outcome.
Each national variable assumption is represented by a time
series of values.These time series are set to represent the best
judgement of ISER economists on the future trends in these values as
they influence the Alaskan economy.That influence is primarily
upon the growth in the real wage.the price level,and the
equilibrium rate of unemployment.
The exogenous employment assumptions consist of a series of case
file assumptions about economic behavior in particular industries or
particular projects.Detail on all of the case files included in
individual case files are chosen from the library of case files in
the scenario generator mode and are combined by that model to form
industry-wide basic employment assumptions.These aggregated
employment series (as well as tourists visiting Alaska)are
presented in Table K.2.The particular shape of the time paths of
the employment variables takes account of the fact that activity in
some industries such as fish harvesting is resource base
constrained,while in others the level is more strongly influenced
by demand such as mining employment.
State revenue and expenditure assumptions consist of exogenous
vectors of petroleum revenues,which are chosen from the scenario
generator library of cases,and a set of options chosen by the model
user which together are loosely called the fiscal rule.
Values for the most important petroleum revenues--roya1ties and
severance taxes--are taken from the Alaska Department of Revenue '.
Since these projections end in 1999,they are extrapolated to 2010
using the growth rate over the interval 1996 to 1999.This interval
is felt to be representative of the subsequent decline in production
on state fields,particularly prudhoe Bay.Consequently,the time
series of total petroleum revenues in real dollars in the base case
has the shape shown in Figure K.2.
The other petroleum revenue source of consequence,the corporate
income tax,is extremely difficult to project because it is
dependent not only on the levels of production and prices of Alaskan
petroleum but upon all aspects of worldwide operations of the major
international oil companies operating in Alaska.The base case
assumptions for this revenue source is that it grows at 7 percent
annually,slightly faster than inflation.The petroleum property
tax depends upon taxable property of the oil companies.
K-3
Institute of social
and Economic Research -
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -FIGURE K.2.BASE CASE SIMULATION
TOTAL PETROLEUM REVENUES
(billion 1982 $)
3
2
1983 1990
K-4
Year
2000 2010
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A "fiscal rule"is necessary for the determination of the level
and compos i tion of state expenditures for two reasons.First,the
hi storical pat tern of state expendi ture behavior provides no state
guide to future spending patterns.Second,the potential for
revenue surpluses on current account allows for considerable
flexibility in the timing and composition of spending.In 1982
Alaskan voters approved a spending limi t which limits spending to
$2.5 billion adjusted annually for the change in population and the
price level.
The limit covers all state spending except Permanent Fund
dividends and debt service.Special capital approriations over the
limit and special contributions to the Permanent Fund can be done
with voter approval.The limit also requires that at least
one-third of spending be for capital appropriations.Excess
revenues accrue in the General Fund until needed,earning positive
real interest.
The limit provides a useful set of guidelines for the fi seal
rule when current revenues plus General Fund balances are sufficient
to allow spending to be at the limit established by the limit.The
outstanding obligations to the Permanent Fund is not paid off.When
a simulation indicates that current revenues and the fund balance do
not provide revenues sufficient to spend up to the limit,then an
alternate set of guidelines defining spending must be invoked.
Since there is no historical experience to base these guidelines
upon,they are defined by what appears reasonable politically in an
era of declining revenues.The basic assumption is "last in-first
out"referring to the fact that newer programs,initiated in years
when revenues are increasing rapidly,are most likely to be cut back
the most when revenues are falling.All programs would experience
cuts to some degree at the same time that some newer programs are
eliminated.
The sequence of events which is triggered by a shortfall of
revenues below the spending limit is as follows:Total expenditures
for programs funded under the limi t are reduced.Permanent Fund
dividends and debt service payments are not directly affected.
Capi tal expenditures are reduced more than operat ing expenditures
over a two-year period until operations represents 75 percent of
spending.The reduction of operations results in a reduction in
local transfers.As the retrenchment continues,the subsidy half of
the capital budget is eliminated and replaced by "bricks and mortar"
spending.Capi tal spending financed by bonds and federal grants
continues to be a fixed portion of capital spending under the limit.
In addition to subsidies,the Permanent Fund dividend program is
eliminated.
K-5
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Kay 1983
Two revenue enhancement measures are subsequently introduced.
The first is the reintroduction of the personal income tax at the
rates prevailing when it was eliminated in the 1970s.The second is
the annual transfer of all Permanent Fund earnings.both real and
nominal,to the General Fund.This produces current income but
erodes the real value of the Permanent Fund.
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TABLE K.l.SUMMARY OF BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP MODEL
RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDY,MAY 1983
(SB87.3 -CB87.3)
ASSUMPTIONS DESCRIPTION (a)
National Variables Assumptions
U.S.Inflation Rate
Real Average Weekly Earnings
Consumer prices rise at approximately
6.5 percent annually after 1985.
Growth in real average weekly
earnings averages 1 percent annually.
T Real Per Capita Income Growth in real per
averages 1.5 percent
1984.
capita
annually
income
after
r
r
Unemployment Rate
Exogenous Employment Assumptions
Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline
Long-run rate of 6 percent.
Operating employment remains constant
at 1,500 through 2010 (TAP.083).
North Slope Petroleum Development Construction employment developing
Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk fields peaks
at 2,400 in 1983 and 1986.Operating
employment remains at 2,502 through
2010 for overall North Slope produc-
tion (NSO.082).
Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum
Production
Employment declines
beginning in 1983 so
SO perc en t of the 1982
2010 (UPC.082).
gradually
as to reach
level (778)by
T
(a)Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for MAP Model SCEN_
case files.These are presented in detail starting in Table K.3 of this
appendix.
K-7
Tertiary Recovery of
North Slope Oil
OCS Exploration and Development
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Tertiary oil recovery project util-
izing North Slope natural gas occu~s
in early 1990s with a peak annual
employment of 2,000 (NSO.TRC).
The current OCS five-year leas i ng
schedule calls for 16 OCS lease sales
subsequent to October 1982,including
the Beaufort,Norton,and st.George
Sales,which have already taken place
(Sales 71,57,and 70).Development is
assumed to occur only in the Navarin
Basin (1.14 billion barrels of oil)
and the Beaufort Sea (6.1 billion
barrels of oil).All other sales are
assumed to result in exploration
employment only (OCS.GOl,OCS.G03,
OCS.G04,OCS,G05,OCS.G06. OCS.G07,
OCS.G09,OCS,GIO,OCS,Gl1,OCS,G12,
OCS,Gl3,OCS.G14).
-
Anchorage oil Headquarte~s
Beluga Chuitna Coal Production
Several oil companies
regional headquarters in
mid-1980s (OHQ,083).
Development of 4,4 million
mine for export beginning
provides total employment
(BCL.04T(-4».
establish
Alaska in
ton/year
in 1990
of 524
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Hydroelectric Projects Employment peaks at 725
construction of several
hydroelectric projects
state (SHP.082.SHP.PJH),
in 1990 for
state-funded
around the
U.S.Borax Mine The U,S.Borax mine near Ketchikan is
brought into production with operating
employment of 790 by 1988 (BXM,PJM),
Greens Creek Mine Production from the Greens Creek
on Admiralty Island results
employment of 315 people from
through 1996 (GCM,082),
K-8
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May 1983
The Red Dog Mine in the Western Brooks
Range reaches full production with
operating employment of 448 by 1988
(RED.PJH).
Employment increases from a 1982 level
of 5,267 at 1 percent annually
(OKN.083).
Moderate state support results in
expans ion of agriculture to employment
of 508 in 2000 (AGR.PJM).
Employment expands to over 3,200 by
1990 before beginning to decline
gradually after 2000 to about 2,800 by
"2010 (FLL.083).
Pulp Mills Employment
1 percent
(FPU.082).
declines at
per year
a rate of
after 1983
Commercial Fishing-Nonbottomfish
Commercial Fishing-Bottomfish
Federal Military Employment
Federal Civilian Employment
Employment levels in Oshing and fish
processing remain constant at 6,323
and 7,123,respectively (TCF.002).
The total U.S.bottomfish catch
expands at a constant rate to
allowable catch in 2000,with Alaska
resident harvesting employment rising
to 733.Onshore processing capacity
expands in the Aleutians and Kodiak
census di vi s ions to provide total
resident employment of 971 by 2000
(BCF.183).
Employment remains constant at 23,323
(GFM.082).
Rises at 0.5 percent annual rate from
17,900 in 1982 to 20,583 by 2010
(GFC.083).
K-9
Tourism Assumptions
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Number of visitors to Alaska increases
by 50.000 per year from 680.000 in
1982 to over 2 million by 2010
(TRS.082).
state Revenue and Expenditure Assumptions
Petroleum Revenues
Expenditures
State petroleum revenues from the
severance tax and royalties are based
upon Alaska Department of Revenue
projections published in March of
1983.Subsequent to 1999.they are
extrapolated at the growth l:'ate over
the interval 1996-1999.oil and gas
corporate income tax revenues are
projected to grow at a nominal rate of
7 pel:'cent per year after 1985.Petro-
leum property taxes are a function of
petroleum industry capital stock
(DOR.5M83).
state expenditures are at the levels
allowed by the recently passed
spending limit,wi th combined
subsidies and capital expenditures
equaling one-third of total
expenditures.As revenue growth
slows.the income tax is reinstated,
subsidies are eliminated.the
Permanent Fund dividend program is
phased out.and pl:'oportional cuts in
the operating and capital budgets are
made to keep total expendi tures equal
to total revenues.Capital
expenditures fall to one-fourth of
total spending.After the Permanent
Fund dividend program is phased out,
all Permanent Fund e~rnings are
annually transferred to the general
fund.
K-10
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K.2 Aggregate Base Case Variables
Table K.2 presents the values in the base case for the sixteen
variables which form the output of the scenario generator model for
the state economic model.These variables are aggregated from the
individual case files presented in section K.3.
K-ll
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T MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2.APA BASE CASE (continued)
T EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
<thousands of employees)
High Wage Low Wage Active
Exogenous Exogenous Fish Duty Civilian
Manufacturing Manufacturing Harvesting Military Federal
Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment
T 1982 0.000 8.771 5.217 23.323 17.900
1983 0.000 10.433 6.421 23.323 17.989
cT
1984 0.000 10.571 6.444 23.323 18.079
1985 0.000 10.749 6.471 23.323 18.170
1986 0.000 10.929 6.499 23.323 18.261
1987 0.000 11.107 6.527 23.323 18.352
1988 0.000 11.196 6.544 23.323 18.444
1989 0.000 11.240 6.579 23.323 18.536
1990 0.000 11.292 6.592 23.323 18.629
1991 0.000 11.299 6.608 23.323 18.722
T 1992 0.000 11.315 6.629 23.323 18.815
1993 0.000 11.335 6.655 23.323 18.909
1994 0.000 11.366 6.689 23.323 19.004
1995 0.000 11.413 6.731 23.323 19.099
1996 0.000 11.478 6.784 23.323 19.194
1997 0.000 11.571 6.851 23.323 19.290
1998 0.000 11.704 6.935 23.323 19.387
1999 0.000 11.887 7.041 23.323 19.484
2000 0.000 12.122 7.096 23.323 19.581
2001 0.000 12.018 7.096 23.323 19.679
2002 0.000 11.807 7.096 23.323 19.777
2003 0.000 11.776 7.096 23.323 19.876
2004 0.000 11.747 7.096 23.323 19.976
2005 0.000 11.718 7.096 23.323 20.076
2006 0.000 11.641 7.096 23.323 20.176
2007 0.000 11.634 7.096 23.323 20.277
2008 0.000 11.626 7.096 23.323 20.378
[2009 0.000 11.623 7.096 23.323 20.480
2010 0.000 11.617 7.096 23.323 20.583
r SOURCE:SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
.('v·
K-13
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2.APA BASE CASE (continued)
EXOGENOUS REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL ~
(millions of current dollars)
.....
State
State State State Corporate
Production State Bonus Property Petroleum
Tax Royalty Payment Tax Tax
Revenue Income Revenue Revenue Revenue -
1982 1590.000 1530.000 6.700 142.700 668.900
1983 1480.000 1430.000 26.100 148.600 235.000 l0l"I,
1984 1220.000 1200.000 11.066 153.200 272.000
1985 1260.000 1240.000 4.692 158.000 295.000
1986 1350.000 1350.000 1.990 163.456 315.650
1987 .1430.000 1450.000 0.844 169.101 337.745
1988 1500.000 1520.000 0.358 174.940 361.387
1989 1380.000 1650.000 0.152 180.981 386.684 ~
1990 1420.000 1710.000 0.064 187.231 413.751
1991 1230.000 1570.000 0.027 244.697 442.714
1992 1150.000 1550.000 0.012 253.385 473.704
1993 1110.000 1520.000 0.005 334.305 506.863
1994 1090.000 1500.000 0.002 360.464 542.343
1995 1000.000 1410.000 0.001 372.870 580.306 -
1996 910.000 1290.000 0.000 386.531 620.927
1997 930.000 1330.000 0.000 399.458 664.392 ..
1998 910.000 1340.000 0.000 412.658 710.899
1999 860.000 1350.000 0.000 425.141 760.662
2000 843.918 1370.384 0.000 438.917 813.907 """'li,
2001 828.136 1391.076 0.000 452.996 870.881
2002 812.650 1412.081 0.000 465.389 931.842
2003 797.453 1433.402 0.000 480.106 997.070
2004 782.541 1455.046 0.000 494.158 1066.865
2005 767.907 1477 .016 0.000 506.558 1141.545
~
2006 753.547 1499.318 0.000 519.317 1221.453
2007 739.456 1521.957 0.000 530.447 1306.954
2008 725.628 1544.938 0.000 542.962 1398.440 IlI!loI
2009 712.058 1568.266 0.000 554.874 1496.331
2010 698.743 1591.946 0.000 564.198 1601.073 -SOURCE:SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
~,
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May 1983
TABLE K.2.APA BASE CASE (continued)
EXOGENOUS TOURISM ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
(thousands of tourists)
Tourists
Visiting Alaska
1982 680.000
1983 730.000
1984 780.000
1985 830.000
1986 880.000
1987 930.000
1988 980.000
1989 1030.000
1990 1080.000
199.1 1130.000
1992 1180.000
1993 1230.000
1994 1280.000
1995 1330.000
1996 1380.000
1997 1430.000
1998 1480.000
1999 1530.000
2000 1580.000
2001 1630.000
2002 1680.000
2003 1730.000
2004 1780.000
2005 1830.000
2006 1880.000
2007 1930.000
2008 1980.000
2009 2030.000
2010 2080.000
SOURCE:SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
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May 1983
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K.3.Scenario Case Files for Base Case
This section contains a written description plus the actual file
contents in table form of each case file used to form the base case
output of the scenario generator.
K-17
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May 1983
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1.Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline
Trans-Alaska Pipeline Service (TAPS)employment through 1977
included only the exogenous construction employment engaged in the
initial construction of the pipeline.After completion in 1977,
employment has been of two types.First,there has been additional
construction of four pump stations (see oil and Gas Journal,
2/25/80,p.72),and second,there is exogenous transportation
sector employment associated with operation of the line.
SOURCE:Construction estimate based on assumed installation of
four pump s tat ions adding capac i ty of .15 mmbd each,from Beaufort
OCS Development Scenarios,Dames and Hoore,1978.
Operations employment from Alaska Economic Trends,Alaska Dept.
of Labor,October 1978.
K-19
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.3a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TRANS-ALASKA OIL PIPELINE
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
-
1982 0.090 1.500
1983 0.000 1.500
1984 0.000 1.500
1985 0.000 1.500
1986 0.000 1.500
1987 0.000 1.500
1988 0.000 1.500
1989 0.000 1.500
1990 0.000 1.500
1991 0.000 1.500
1992 0.000 1.500
1993 0.000 1.500
1994 0.000 1.500
1995 0.000 1.500
1996 0.000 1.500
1997 0.000 1.500
1998 0.000 1.500
1999 0.000 1.500
2000 0.000 1.500
2001 0.000 1.500
2002 0.000 1.500
2003 0.000 1.500
2004 0.000 1.500
2005 0.000 1.500
2006 0.000 1.500
2007 0.000 1.500
2008 0.000 1.500
2009 0.000 1.500
2010 0.000 1.500
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE TAP.083
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMT9X
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May 1983
TABLE K.3b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TRANS-ALASKA OIL PIPELINE
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-Southeast Valdez/Chitina/Yukon/
North Slope Fairbanks Fairbanks Whi ttier Koyukuk
iT
1982 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.406 0.552
1983 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1984 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1985 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1986 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1987 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
r 1988 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1989 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552, I
1990 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1991 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1992 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1993 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1994 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1995 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
T 1996 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1997 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1998 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1999 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
T 2000 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
I
2001 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2002 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2003 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2004 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2005 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2006 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2007 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
T 2008 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2009 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2010 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
T SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE TAP.083
r VARIABLES:B04 B09 B24 B26 B29
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2.North Slope Petroleum Development
North Slope developments include employment associated with
primary recovery operations from the Sadlerochit formation,
secondary recovery (using waterflooding)of that formation,
development of the Kuparuk formation west of Prudhoe Bay,and the
permanent work force of Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO)and
British Petroleum (BP)at the main Prudhoe base headquarters,and a
variety of exploration and development efforts on state leases
outside of the Sadlerochit and Kuparuk areas.The key assumptions
serving as the basis for the employment forecasts are the following:
:T
o A total of
approximately
field and 50
through 1985.
nine rigs continue to drill
50-55 wells at the Prudhoe Bay
wells at the Kuparuk field a year
T
T
o
o
o
The Prudhoe waterflood project is completed in
1984,adding 300 new permanent operating
employees.
Construction employment involved in development
of primary and secondary recovery fac ili ties at
the Kuparuk field peaks at 1,300 in 1985.
Construction employment for additional recovery
facilities at Kuparuk and Prudhoe,as well as for
developing production facilities at other North
Slope oil fields under state lease,maintains
total construction employment at 1,500 through
1990 and at 1,000 through 2010.
T
T
SOURCE:U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,Final EIS.Prudhoe Bay
Oilfield Water flood Project,pp.2-60;and personal communication.
D.A.Casey.ARCO oil and Gas Co.
K-23
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May 1983
TABLE K.4a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
NORTH SLOPE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction Mining
Employment Employment
1982 2.000 2.300
1983 2.400 2.502
1984 1.800 2.502
1985 2.000 2.502
1986 2.400 2.502
1987 1.800 2.502
1988 1.500 2.502
1989 1.500 2.502
1990 1.500 2.502
1991 1.000 2.502
1992 1.000 2.502
1993 1.000 2.502
1994 1.000 2.502
1995 1.000 2.502
1996 1.000 2.502
1997 1.000 2.502
1998 1.000 2.502
1999 1.000 2.502
2000 1.000 2.502
2001 1.000 .2.502
2002 1.000 2.502
2003 1.000 2.502
2004 1.000 2.502
2005 1.000 2.502
2006 1.000 2.502
2007 1.000 2.502
2008 1.000 2.502
2009 1.000 2.502
2010 1.000 2.502
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE NSO.082
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9
K-24
-
-
-
,1IIf.m_
1
TABLE K.4b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
NORTH SLOPE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-North Slope
'T
I
T
1982 4.300
1983 4.902
1984 4.302
1985 4.502
1986 4.902
1987 4.302
1988 4.002
1989 4.002
1990 4.002
1991 3.502
1992 3.502
1993 3.502
1994 3.502
1995 3.502
1996 3.502
1997 3.502
1998 3.502
1999 3.502
2000 3.502
2001 3.502
2002 3.502
2003 3.502
2004 3.502
2005 3.502
2006 3.502
2007 3.502
2008 3.502
2009 3.502
2010 3.502
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE NSO.082
VARIABLE:B04
K-25
K-26
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
-
-
-I
!
1
3.Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
T
Ij'
,I
T
Petroleum sector employment in the Kenai-Cook Inlet census
division was 778 in 1979 (four-quarter average employment taken from
Alaska Department of Labor,Statistical Quarterly,1979 issues),
cons isting of exploration,development,and production associated
with the Kenai oil and gas fields.Currently,the 120,000 barrels
per day output of oil is expected to decline drastically over the
forecast period,possibly as fast as 15 to 20 percent per year.The
decline may be partially slowed,however,by a possible redrilling
program being cons ideredby the operators (see Oil and Gas Journal,
2/4/80,p.36).We assume a gradual employment decline to 383 by
2010 as oil wells are abandoned.Gas production is assumed to
remain relatively stable at around 5,000 mmcf/day.
T SOURCE:Oil and Gas Journal,2/4/80;
communication,D.A.Casey,ARCO oil and Gas Co.
K-27
and personal
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.5a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
UPPER COOK INLET PETROLEUM
<thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 0.778
1983 0.759
1984 0.740
1985 0.721
1986 0.703
1987 0.685
1988 0.668
1989 0.652
1990 0.635
1991 0.619
1992 0.604
1993 0.589
1994 0.574
1995 0.560
1996 0.546
1997 0.532
1998 0.519
1999 0.506
2000 0.493
2001 0.481
2002 0.469
2003 0.457
2004 0.446
2005 0.435
2006 0.424
2007 0.413
2008 0.403
2009 0.393
2010 0.383
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE UPC.082
VARIABLE:EKP9
K-28
-
-.
-
""'"
-,
-
TABLE K.5b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 19a3
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
UPPER COOK INLET PETROLEUM
(thousands of employees)
Kenai-Cook Inlet
1
I I
T
I
1982 0.778
1983 0.759
1984 0.740
1985 0.721
1986 0.703
1987 0.685
1988 0.668
1989 0.652
1990 0.635
1991 0.619
1992 0.604
1993 0.589
1994 0.514
1995 0.560
1996 0.546
1991 0.532
1998 0.519
1999 0.506
2000 0.493
2001 0.481
2002 0.469
2003 0.451
2004 0.446
2005 0.435
2006 0.424
2001 0.413
2008 0.403
2009 0.393
2010 0.383
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE UPC.082
VARIABLE:B12
K-29
K-30
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983.
....,
-
-
-
-
.....
4.Tertiary Recovery of North Slope Oil
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
'T
, I
T
T
There is currently no firm plan for the disposition of North
Slope natural gas,and recent studies have demonstrated the various
problems faced by all the current proposals (for example,Booz,
Allen and Hamilton,Inc.,report to the state of Alaska,1983;and
"Use in Alaska of North Slope Natural Gas,"Alaska Review of Social
and Economic Conditions,April 1983).In light of the dim prospects
for transport of the gas to market,an alternative use would be in
tertiary recovery of North Slope oil.A pilot tertiary recovery
project is currently underway at Prudhoe Bay involving the
reinjection of natural gas liquids in a small portion of the field.
Alternative tertiary recovery methods are technically feasible but
have yet to be attempted in severe Arctic conditions.(See Options
for North Slope Gas Utilization,Michael Economides and Russell
Osterman,April 1982,for State of Alaska Division of Energy and
Power Development.)
This case assumes tertiary recovery project for Pruhoe Bay oil.
Since the dimens ions of such a proj ec t have yet to be worked out,
the case is generic in its employment assumptions.Employment is
assumed to be on the same order of magni tude as the waterflooding
project.
K-3l
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.6a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TERTIARY RECOVERY OF NORTH SLOPE OIL
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.500
1990 1.000
1991 2.000
1992 2.000
1993 1.000
1994 0.500
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE NSO.TRC
VARIABLE:EKP9
K-32
-
-
-
-!
-
TABLE K.6b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TERTIARY RECOVERY OF NORTH SLOPE OIL
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-North Slope
J
f"i""
I
c I
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.500
1990 1.000
1991 2.000
1992 2.000
1993 1.000
1994 0.500
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE NSO.TRC
VARIABLE:B04
K-33
K-34
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-.
-
-
~,
rr
:.1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
5.Federal Des Exploration and Development
Our assumptions of employment associated with federal DeS
exploration and development are based on the current five-year
federal Des lease schedule.For each planning area we assumed a
total level of resources to be discovered and developed.We
developed employment assumptions based on these resource levels.
The basic method used to derive the resource development assumptions
is described in pp.17-28 of Edward D.Porter,"The Five-Year Des
Leasing Schedule,1982-87,Alaska Impacts,"Bureau of Land
Management,Alaska Des office,August 1982.Es timates of
recoverable resources and probability of occurrence in each planning
area have been updated to May 1983 with information from the Alaska
Des office.
Table K.7 summarizes the current federal DeS five-year leasing
schedule and the resources which we assumed to be developed by 2010
in each planning area.This table updates Table 7 in E.D.Porter,
EE..cit.(p.26).In the most likely case,we assume that no
offshore gas resources are developed.Offshore oil resources are
developed only in the Beaufort Sea and the Navarin Basin.
Exploration continues in all areas,however,following the lease
sale schedule.
Based on the resource estimates for each planning area,we
developed employment assumptions for each lease sale.There is a
great deal of uncertainty with respect to the actual level of
employment which migh t be associated with any given sale.
Employment would depend not only on the resources discovered,but
also on factors such as the location of the discovery and the extent
to which exploration and development had taken place in connection
with earlier sales.
There is no consistent source for developing employment
assumptions for all sales.The employment assumptions used by the
Minerals Management Service,Alaska DeS office,for environmental
impact studies and technical reports are available only for lease
sales which have already been studied.These employment assumptions
are often based on differing assumptions about resources which are
developed than those we have used.In addition,the methodology
used to develop them appears to vary widely between different
reports.Despite these difficulties with past Minerals Management
Service employment assumptions,they remain the best source
available.We have used these assumptions as the primary basis for
our own Des employment assumptions,modifying them to take account
of differences in assumptions such as resource discoveries and
locations.
On the following pages,we present the employment assumptions
associated with the DeS planning areas listed in Table K.7,in the
order in which they are listed in the table.
K-35
K-36
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic ResearchrrMAPDocumentation
I May 1983
Sa.Beaufort Sea oes Employment Assumptions <Sales 71,87,and 97)
For the most likely case i we assume development of a total of
6.1 billion barrels of oil in the Beaufort Sea.We assumed that
roughly half of this oil will be developed on tracts leased in
Sale 71,and that half will be developed on tracts leased in
Sales 87 and 97.Our employment assumptions are based on
unpublished information provided by the Minerals Management Service,
Alaska oes office,in April 1983,which assumed development of
3.0 billion barrels of oil for Sale 87.We used these assumptions
for Sales 87 and 97,and assumed slightly lower levels of employment
for Sale 71.
T
f'r'
I
T
K-37
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE K.8a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALE 71)~
(thousands of employees)
(millions of current $)"'""
High Wage State Il'I!\;
Exogenous Exogenous Property
Construction Mining Transportation Tax
Employment Employment Employment Revenue
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.341 0.375 0.052 0.000 -1984 0.208 0.375 0.052 0.000
1985 0.250 0.535 0.104 0.000 -1986 0.250 0.575 0.117 0.000
1987 0.800 0.575 0.384 0.000
1988 0.800 0.546 0.683 0.000
1989 0.340 0.568 0.200 0.000 -1990 0.952 1.001 0.411 0.000
1991 0.327 0.980 0.257 51.000
1992 0.873 1.265 0.752 53.000
1993 0.361 1.203 0.461 55.000
1994 0.268 1.448 0.508 57.000
1995 0.268 1.720 0.538 59.000
1996 0.035 1.484 0.610 61.000
1997 0.035 1.350 0.610 63.000
1998 0.035 1.341 0.610 65.000
1999 0.035 1.350 0.610 66.000
2000 0.035 1.341 0.610 68.000 -
2001 0.035 1.341 0.610 70.000
2002 0.035 1.341 0.610 71.000
2003 0.035 1.341 0.610 72 .000 1""',
2004 0.035 1.341 0.610 74.000
2005 0.035 1.341 0.610 74.000
2006 0.035 1.341 0.610 75.000
2007 0.028 1.341 0.538 75.000
2008 0.028 1.315 0.538 75.000 .-,
2009 0.028 1.315 0.538 75.000
2010 0.028 1.315 0.538 73.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G14
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EKP9 EKT9X RPPS
K-38
-.
1
i
T
..,..
; I
I
T
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.8b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALE 11)
(thousands of employees)
Ba~~ow-
Ancho~age No~th Slope
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.768
1984 0.000 0.635
1985 0.000 0.889
1986 0.000 0.942
1987 0.000 1.759
1988 0.000 2.029
1989 0.007 1.101
1990 0.011 2.353
1991 0.015 1.549
1992 0.059 2.831
1993 0.087 1.938
1994 0.100 2.124
1995 0.111 2.415
1996 0.120 2.009
1997 0.126 1.869
1998 0.126 1.860
1999 0.126 1.869
2000 0.126 1.860
2001 0.126 1.860
2002 0.126 1.860
2003 0.126 1.860
2004 0.126 1.860
2005 0.126 1.860
2006 0.126 1.860
2007 0.126 1.781
2008 0.126 1.755
2009 0.126 1.755
2010 0.126 1.755
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G14
VARIABLES:801 B04
K-39
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation ~
May 1983
TABLE K.9a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALES 87.97)-
(thousands of employees)
(millions of current $)'"""
High Wage State
Exogenous Exogenous Property
Construction Mining Transportation Tax
Employment Employment Employment Revenue
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -1984 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.341 0.375 0.052 0.000
1986 0.208 0.375 0.052 0.000
1987 0.416 0.535 0.104 0.000
1988 0.468 0.575 0.117 0.000
1989 1.080 0.575 0.384 0.000
1990 1.824 0.546 0.713 0.000
1991 0.340 0.568 0.230 0.000 .~
1992 0.952 1.001 0.501 0.000
1993 0.327 0.980 0.387 72.000
1994 0.873 1.265 0.912 75.000
1995 0.261 1.203 0.651 78.000
1996 0.268 1.448 0.728 81.000
1997 0.268 1.720 0.788 84.000 -1998 0.035 1.484 0.860 87.000
1999 0.035 1.350 0.860 89.000
2000 0.035 1.341 0.860 92.000
2001 0.035 1.350 0.860 95.000
2002 0.035 1.341 0.860 97.000
2003 0.035 1.490 0.860 100.000 ."""l
2004 0.035 1.490 0.860 102.000
2005 0.035 1.490 0.860 104.000
~1
2006 0.035 1.490 0.860 105.000
2007 0.035 1.490 0.860 106.000
2008 0.035 1.490 0.860 107.000
2009 0.028 1.315 0.788 108.000
2010 0.028 1.315 0.788 107.000
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OCS.G01
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9 EMT9X RPPS
~:
K-40
:1
rr
i I
TABLE K.9b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALES 87.97)
(thousands of employees)
:1
.,I
IT
;I
rr
I I
fT, I
I
T
I
r
I
Barrow-
Anchorage North Slope
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.768
1986 0.000 0.635
1987 0.000 1.055
1988 0.000 1.160
1989 0.000 2.039
1990 0.000 3.083
1991 0.007 1.131
1992 0.011 2.443
1993 0.015 1.679
1994 0.059 2.991
1995 0.087 2.028
1996 0.100 2.344
1997 0.111 2.665
1998 0.120 2.259
1999 0.126 2.119
2000 0.126 2.110
2001 0.126 2.119
2002 0.126 2.110
2003 0.126 2.259
2004 0.126 2.259
2005 0.126 2.259
2006 0.126 2.259
2007 0.126 2.259
2008 0.126 2.259
2009 0.126 2.005
2010 0.126 2.005
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G01
VARIABLES:B02 B04
K-41
K-42
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
-
-
~I
-
5b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Norton Basin oes Employment Assumptions (oes Sales 57 and 100)
...,.
I
......
I
I'"
We assume that no oil resources are developed in
the Norton Basin.We assume only exploration employment only for
Sa les 57 and 100.Our Sale 57 exploration employment assumptions
are based on an exploration-only scenario from u.S.Department of
the Interior,BLM Alaska--OeS office,Bering-Norton Petroleum
Development Scenarios,Socioeconomic Studies Program,Technical
Report Number 49 (January 1980),p.106.Our Sale 100 exploration
employment assumptions are identical to these for Sale 57,but are
assumed to occur two years later •
K-43
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.10a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
!""'1NortonBasinOCS(Sale 57)
(thousands of employees>
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.046 0.022
1985 0.036 0.092 0.044
1986 0.036 0.046 0.022 -1981 0.000 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.000 0.000
1989 0.000 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000 0.000 ,-
1991 0.000 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000 0.000 ~
1996 0.000 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 0.000 -1999 0.000 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 •0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000 0.000 ~
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OCS.G10
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9 EMT9X
K-44 -
TABLE K.10b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 57)
(thousands of employees)
Nome
""'",
r
1982 0.'000
1983 0.000
1984 0.068
1985 0.172
1986 0.104
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G10
VARIABLE:B18
K-45
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.l1a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 100)
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Hining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000 0.000
1986 0.000 0.046 0.022
1987 0.036 0.092 0.044
1988 0.036 0.046 0.022
1989 0.000 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000 .0.000
2006 0.000 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OCS.G09
VARIABLES:EKCNX1 EKP9 EMT9X
K-46
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.11b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 100)
(thousands of employees)
Nome
r
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1981
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1991
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2001
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE:MAP KODEL CASE OCS.G09
VARIABLE:B18
K-41
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.068
0.172
0.104
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
K-48
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
5c.St.George Basin Des Employment Assumptions (DeS Sales 70,89,
and 101
We assume that no oil resources are developed in the St.George
Basin.We assume only exploration employment for Sales 70,89,and
101.Our Sale 70 exploration employment assumptions are based on an
exploration-only scenario from U.S.Department of the Interior,BLM
Alaska oes office.St.George Basin Petroleum Development Scenerios:
Economic and Demographic Analysis.Socioeconomic Studies Program.
Technical Report Number 57 (April 1981),p.250.Our Sale 89
employment assumptions are identical.but are assumed to occur one
year later.Following unsuccessful exploration of tracts leased in
the two earlier sales.no exploration occurs ~n connection with
Sale 101.
K-49
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.12a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
St.George Basin OCS <Sale 70)
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.131
1985 0.198
1986 0.232
1987 0.198
1988 0.097
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.057
0.093
0.110
0.093
0.020
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
~I
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OCS.GI1
VARIABLES:EMP9 EMT9X
K-50 -
......
I
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.12b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
st.George Basin OCS (Sale 70)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.188
1985 0.291
1986 0.342
1987 0.291
1988 0.117
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.Gll
VARIABLE:B01
K-51
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.13a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
St.George Basin OCS (Sale 89)
(thousands of employees)
/
Exogenous
Mining Transportation
Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 .0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000
.~1985 0.131 0.057
1986 0.198 0.093
1987 0.232 0.110 ~
1988 0.198 0.093
1989 0.097 0.020
1990 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000 -1993 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 ~
1999 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000 ""'"
2002 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 ",,"!;
2005 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000 ."
2007 0.000 0.000 J
2008 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000 ~
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G12
VARIABLES:EMP9 EMT9X
K-52
....
TABLE K.13b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
St.George Basin OCS (Sale 89)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
""'"1
,I
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.188
1986 0.291
1987 0.342
1988 0.291
1989 0.117
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G12
VARIABLE:B01
K-53
K-54
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
-
-
5d.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Navarin Basin oes Employment Assumptions (oes Sales 83 and 107)
.-
For our most likely case,we assumed development of 1.14 billion
barrels of oil in the Navarin Basin.We assumed that this oil is
developed in connection with Sale 83 and that Sale 107 results in
only additional exploration.
Our Sale 83 employment assumptions are .based on unpublished
figures provided to ISER by the Minerals Management,Alaskan oes
office,in connection with the preparation of Socioeconomic Studies
Program,Technical Report 78,which examined impacts of Sale 83.
The employment figures provided by the oes office assumed
development of both oil and gas resources.We reduced these figures
by removing that employment primarily associated with gas
development.
Our exploration-only employment assumptions for Sale 10 7 were
based on the same set of figures provided to ISER by the Minerals
Management Service,Alaska oes office •
K-55
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -!MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.14a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS -Navarin Basin OCS (Sale 83)
(thousands of employees)-(millions of current $)
High Wage State -Exogenous Exogenous Property
Construction Mining Transportation Tax
Employment Employment Employment Revenue
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1986 0.000 0.240 0.000 0.000
1987 0.000 0.440 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.480 0.000 0.000 .,
1989 0.000 0.480 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.360 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.352 0.000 0.000
1992 3.476 0.664 0.000 0.000
1993 3.476 1.215 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 1.832 0.174 14.000 .~
1995 0.000 2.228 0.261 14.000
1996 0.000 2.345 0.348 15.000
1997 0.000 2.364 0.348 15.000
1998 0.000 2.166 0.348 15.000
1999 0.000 1.868 0.348 16.000
2000 0.000 1.443 0.348 16.000 ·i
2001 0.000 1.114 0.348 16.000
2002 0.000 1.002 0.348 16.000 ~
2003 0.000 1.002 0.348 17.000
2004 0.000 1.002.0.348 17 .000
2005 0.000 1.002 0.348 17.000
2006 0.000 1.002 0.348 17.000
2007 0.000 1.002 0.348 16,000
2008 0.000 1.002 0.348 16.000
2009 0.000 1.002 0.348 15.000
2010 0.000 1.002 0.348 15.000
~
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OCS.G03
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9 EHT9X RPPS .,
K-56 -
-
,~
TABLE K.14b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Navarin Basin OCS (Sale 83)
(thousands of employees)
,......
I
Aleutian
Islands Anchorage
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000
1986 0.240 0.000
1987 0.440 0.000
1988 0.480 0.000
1989 0.480 0.000
1990 0.360 0.000
1991 0.352 0.000
1992 4.140 0.000
1993 4.689 0.002
1994 2.002 0.004
1995 2.477 0.012
1996 2.671 0.022
1997 2.682 0.030
1998 2.477 0.037
1999 2.163 0.053
2000 1.737 0.053
2001 1.409 0.053
2002 1.297 0.053
2003 1.297 0.053
2004 1.297 0.053
2005 1.297 0.053
2006 1.297 0.053
2007 1.297 0.053
2008 1.297 0.053
2009 -1.297 0.053
2010 1.297 0.053
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G03
VARIABLES:B01 B02
K-57
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.15a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Navarin Basin DCS (Sale 107)
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.280
1989 0.680
1990 0.280
1991 0.120
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.078
0.208
0.078
0.026
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OCS.G04
VARIABLES:EMP9 EMT9X
K-58
f
i
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.15b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Navarin Basin OCS (Sale 107)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.358
1989 0.888
1990 0.358
1991 0.146
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G04
VARIABLE:B01
K-59
K-60
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
...,
I
-
5e.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Barrow Arch OCS Employment Assumptions (OCS Sales 85 and 109)
-
-
For our most likely case,we assumed that there would be no
development of oil resources in the Barrow Arch.We developed
exploration-only employment assumptions for OCS Sales 85 and 109
based on figures provided in U.S.Department of the Interior,Bureau
of Land Management,Alaska OCS office,Chukchi Sea Petroleum
Technology Assessment,Socioeconomic Studies Program,Technical
Report Number 79 (December 1982),pp.5.1-5.6.
K-61
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.16a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Barrow Arch OCS (Sales 85 and 109)
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.030 0.000
1986 0.017 0.057 0.050
1987 0.017 0.057 0.050
1988 0.324 0.027 0.100
1989 0.324 0.067 0.100
1990 0.000 0.067 0.050
1991 0.000 0.067 0.050
1992 0.000 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G13
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9 EMT9X
K-62
-.
I~
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
~MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.16b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Barrow Arch OCS (Sales 85 and 109)
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-North Slope
!"""
I
r-
I
-
-i
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.030
1986 0.124
1987 0.124
1988 0.451
1989 0.491
1990 0.117
1991 0.117
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP KODEL CASE OCS.G13
VARIABLE:B04
K-63
K-64
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation~1
May 1983
-
-
-
,~
'-',
r'"
!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Sf.North Aleutian Shelf OCS Employment Assumptions (Sale 92)
For our most likely case,we assumed that there would be no
development of oil resources from the North Aleutian Shelf.Our
exploration-only employment assumptions are based on figures
provided for exploration employment in u.S.Department of the
Interior,Bureau of Land Management.Alaska OCS office,North
Aleutian Shelf Statewide and Regional Demographic and Economic
Systems Impacts Analysis,Socioeconomic Studies Program,Technical
'Report Number 68 (June 1982).p.285.
K-65
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.17a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOKIC ASSUMPTIONS
North Aleutian Shelf OCS (Sale 92)
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.125
1987 0.125
1988 0.078
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
~l
-
-i
-
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.GOS
VARIABLES:EHP9 EKT9X
K-66
-!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.17b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
North Aleutian Shelf OCS (Sale 92)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.184
1987 0.184
1988 0.137
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G05
VARIABLE:B01
K-67
K-68
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~.
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
,.,..
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
5g.Cook Inlet.Kodiak,and Shumagin OCS Employment Assumptions
(Sales 88, 86,and 99)
For our most likely case,we assumed that there would be no
development of oil resources in the Cook Inlet,Kodiak,or Shumagin
federal OCS.Our OCS exploration-only employment assumptions for
Sales 88 and 99 are based on an exploration-only scenario provided
in u.s.Department of the Interior,Bureau of Land Management,
Alaska OCS office,Lower Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strai t Petroleum
Development Scenarios,Socioeconomic Studies Program.Technical
Report Number 43 (July 1979).p.66.Given the assumed lack of
development resulting from Kodiak and Cook Inlet sales,we assumed
that there would be no exploration employment associated with
Sale 86 (Shelikof Strait).
K-69
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.18a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Cook Inlet OCS (Sale 88)
(thousands of employees)
-
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.202
1986 0.271
1987 0.056
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.099
0.132
0.028
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G06
VARIABLES:EMP9 EMT9X
K-70 -
I"'"
!
TABLE K.18b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Cook Inlet OCS (Sale 88)
(thousands of employees)
Kenal-Cook Inlet
-I'
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.301
1986 0.403
1987 0.084
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G06
VARIABLE:812
K-71
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.19a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Kodiak OCS (Sale 99)
(thousands of employees)
-
-
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.202
1988 0.271
1989 0.056
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.099
0.132
0.028
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G07
VARIABLES:EMP9 EMT9X
K-72
.....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.19b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Kodiak OCS (Sale 99)
(thousands of employees)
Kodiak
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.301
1988 0.403
1989 0.084
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.GOl
VARIABLE:B15
K-73
K-74
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
.....
-
-
-
.....
.....
.....
-
-.
!
r
~,
I"'"'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
M~y 1983
Sh.Federal oes Development:State Property Tax Revenue Assumptions
We calculated nominal state property tax revenue assumptions as
2 percent of taxable value of installed facilities onshore or
offshore within the three-mile limit using the following formula to
calculate taxable value:
~~~::l)'~~;~l~~iej(-d::;e~i~~7~~e;~;~o:at ~::~atioXear -completion datJ
We assumed that oil facilities would appreciate in value at
7.5 percent per year.We assumed construction of facilities
resulting in significant property tax revenues as follows:
Depreciation
facilities Completion Period
Area (millions $)Date (years)
Sale 71 Beaufort 2,536 (a)1991 30
Sale 87 Beaufort 3,623 (b)1993 30
Sale 83 Navar in 693 (c)1994 24
(a)Assumed to be 70%of cost of Sale 87 facilities and to be
completed two years earlier.
(b)Minerals Management Service,Alaska OCS office.
(c)oes Technical Report 78,p.M-2.
Our resulting revenue assumptions are shown in Table K.20;they
are also shown in the statewide economic assumptions provided
earlier for each lease sale area.
K-75
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE K.20.OCS PROPERTY TAX REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS
(million $)~
Sale 83 Sale 71 Sale 83 -(Navarin)(Beaufort)(Beaufort)
~
1991 0 51 0
1992 0 53 0
1993 0 55 72
1994 14 57 75 -1995 14 59 78
1996 15 61 81 -1997 15 63 84
1998 15 65 87
1999 16 66 89
2000 16 68 92
2001 16 70 95
2002 16 71 97
2003 17 72 100
2004 17 74 102
2005 17 74 104 -
2006 17 75 105
2007 16 75 106
2008 16 75 107 .....
2009 15 75 108
2010 15 73 107 -
SOURCE:See text.
-
K-76
-I
....
r
i
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
6.Anchorage oil Headquarters
Opening of the new ARC a headquarter building will lead a trend
established over the past several years as ARCO and other oil
companies with extensive Alaska operations shift supervisory
personnel to Anchorage from outside the state.We expect a
permanent addi tion of 1,150 to mining employment in Anchorage by
1986 to continue to 2010 .
~
I
I
SOURCE:Municipality of
Indicators,Fourth quarter 1981;
Alaska Economic Trends,March 1983.
Anc ho rage,"",Q.::u.::ao=:r-=t-=e-=r:..:l:..lY,--_E::.c=o;:,:n.::o.::.:;mo=:i...::;.c
and Alaska Department of Labor,
K-77
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.21a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
ANCHORAGE OIL HEADQUARTERS
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.366
1984 0.724
1985 0.988
1986 1.150
1987 1.150
1988 1.150
1989 1.150
1990 1.150
1991 1.150
1992 1.150
1993 1.150
1994 1.150
1995 1.150
1996 1.150
1997 1.150
1998 1.150
1999 1.150
2000 1.150
2001 1.150
2002 1.150
2003 1.150
2004 1.150
2005 L150
2006 1.150
2007 1.150
2008 1.150
2009 L150
2010 1.150
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OHQ.083
VARIABLE:EMP9
K-78
-
-
-
-
-
......
I~
-,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.21b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
ANCHORAGE OIL HEADQUARTERS
(thousands of employees)
Anchorage
1982 0.000
1983 0.366
1984 0.724
1985 0.988
1986 1.150
1987 1.150
1988 1.150
1989 1.150
1990 1.150
1991 1.150
1992 1.150
1993 1.150
1994 1.150
1995 1.150
1996 1.150
1997 1.150
1998 1.150
1999 1.150
2000 1.150
2001 1.150
2002 1.150
2003 1.150
2004 1.150
2005 1.150
2006 1.150
2007 1.150
2008 1.150
2009 1.150
2010 1.150
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OHQ.083
VARIABLE:B02
K-79
K-80
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
.....
-
-
-
-
7.Be1uga-Chuitna Coal Production
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
USGS has long recognized the potential economic significance of
a large number of beds of subbituminous coal on the west side of
Cook Inlet near Tyonek (see USGS,Coal Resources of Alaska,1967).
Recently,several alternative proposals for developing the
Be1uga-Chuitna fields for export to Japan or other Pacific rim
locations have been cons idered (see Pac ific Northwest Laboratory,
Beluga Coal Field Development:Social Effects and Management
Alternatives,1979;and Bechtel,Preliminary Feasibility Study:
Coal Export Program,Chuitna River Field,Alaska,1980).
Some scenarios for development of coal resources in this area
have discussed an 11-mi1lion-ton-per-year coal mine for export or
use as input to a synthetic fuel production process becoming
operational as early as 1986.We assume a more modest export
program implemented on a slower timetable.Production begins in
1994 and eventually reaches 4.4 million tons per year.Construction
begins in 1989,with peak employment of 400 in 1991.Operations
employment is 524 distributed 80 percent in mining and 20 percent in
transportation.
SOURCE:Construction employment based on Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories,Beluga Coal Field Development:Social
Effects and Management Alternatives,1979.Other employment based
on Bechtel,Preliminary Feasibility Study:Coal Export Program,
Chuitna River Field,Alaska,1980.
K-81
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.22a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BELUGA-CHUITNA COAL
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000 0.000
1986 0.000 0.000 0.000
1987 0.000 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.000 0.000
1989 0.150 0.000 0.000
1990 0.300 0.000 0.000
1991 0.400 0.000 0.000
1992 0.350 0.000 0.000
1993 0.200 0.000 0.000
1994 0.100 0.210 0.053
1995 0.000 0.419 0.105
1996 0.000 0.419 0.105
1997 0.000 0.419 0.105
1998 0.000 0.419 0.105
1999 0.000 0.419 0.105
2000 0.000 0.419 0.105
2001 0.000 0.419 0.105
2002 0.000 0.419 0.105
2003 0.000 0.419 0.105
2004 0.000 0.419 0.105
2005 0.000 0.419 0.105
2006 0.000 0.419 0.105
2007 0.000 0.419 0.105
2008 0.000 0.419 0.105
2009 0.000 0.419 0.105
2010 0.000 0.419 0.105
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE BCL.04T
VARIABLES:EMCNX2 EMP9 EMT9X
K-82
.....
r
-
/""',
I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983·
TABLE K.22b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BELUGA-CHUITNA COAL
(thousands of employees)
Kenai-Cook Inlet
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.150
1990 0.300
1991 0.400
1992 0.350
1993 0.200
1994 0.363
1995 0.524
1996 0.524
1997 0.524
1998 0.524
1999 0.524
2000 0.524
2001 0.524
2002 0.524
2003 0.524
2004 0.524
2005 0.524
2006 0.524
2007 0.524
2008 0.524
2009 0.524
2010 0.524
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE BCL.04T
VARIABLE:B12
K-83
K-84
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
8.Tyee and Terror Lakes Hydro
The Tyee Lake project near Pete~sburg and Wrangell is scheduled
for completion in December 1983.Construction employment will peak
at 148 in 1983.The Terror Lake project near Kodiak will be
completed by the end of 1984,with peak construction employment
expected to reach 372 in 1983.
SOURCE:Personal communication:John Stafford,Alaska Power
Authority;and John Longaeve,Alaska Power Authority.
K-85
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.23a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TYEE AND TERROR LAKES HYDRO
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
1982 0.179
1983 0.520
1984 0.195
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE SHP.PJH
VARIABLE:EMCNX1
K-86
~I
-
,-
-
r
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.23b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TYEE AND TERROR LAKES HYDRO
(thousands of employees)
Southeast
Alaska Kodiak
1982 0.120 0.059
1983 0.148 0.372
1984 0.000 0.195
1985 0.000 0.000
1986 0.000 0.000
1987 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.000
1989 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE SHP.PJH
VARIABLES:B11 B15
K-:-87
K-88
"""'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -i
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
-
-
-
I~
I
-r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
9.APA Hydro Projects
In addition to the Tyee and Terror Lake projects currently under
construction,a number of other state-sponsored power projects are
likely to be constructed in the 1980s.These are:Swan Lake near
Ketchikan (under construction),the power intertie between Talkeetna
and Healy in Southcentral Alaska,the Bradley Lake project near
Homer,and the Silver Lake projec t between Cordova and Valdez.
Eighty percent of the intertie construction employment is assumed to
be in the Mat-Su region,with 20 percent in the Interior.We
assume,as well,that the Chackachamna project on the west side of
Cook Inlet is constructed in the early 1990s.
We assume a schedule for construction of the five projects as
follows:
Start Finish Average
Project Region (year)(year)Work Force
Swan Lake Southeast 1981 1984 125
Bradley Lake Kenai-Cook Inlet 1984 1987 175
Silver Lake Cordova-McCa rthy 1985 1988 75
Chackachamna Kenai-Cook Inlet 1988 1993 725
Intertie 80%Mat-Su 1983 1984 100
20%Interior 1983 1984 25
r""
I
t
SOURCE:
Authority.
Personal communication:
K-89
Robert Mohn,Alaska Power
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ""'"
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.24a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
APA HYDRO PROJECTS
<thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
1982 0.125
1983 0.250
1984 0.276
1985 0.213
1986 0.250
1987 0.163
1988 0.401
1989 0.725
1990 0.725
1991 0.725
1992 0.725
1993 0.363
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE SHP.082
VARIABLE:EMCNX2
-
""'"
,~
-
-
K-90
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.24b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
APA HYDRO PROJECTS,-(thousands of employees)
Cordova-Southeast Kenai-Matanuska-Yukon-
McCarthy Alaska Cook Inlet Susitna Koyukuk
~1982 0.000 0.125 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.125 0.000 0.100 0.025
1984 0.000 0.063 0.088 0.100 0.025
r-1985 0.038 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.000
1986 0.075 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.000
1987 0.075 0.000 0.088 0.000 0.000
1988 0.038 0.000 0.363 0.000 0.000
1989 0.000 0.000 0.725 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000 0.725 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000 0.725 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000 0.725 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000 0.363 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
--I 1996 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000r-2005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE SHP.082
r~VARIABLES:B08 Bll B12 B17 B29
K-91
K-92
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
~I
...
-
-
,"""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
10.u.S.Borax Mine near Ketchikan
The U.S.Borax molybdenum mine near Ketchikan is developed and
brought into production by 1987.The world market for molybdenum
remains somewhat soft,so the mine does not initially operate at
full capacity.Beginning in 1987,40,000 tons per day are mined,
employing 700 miners and 90 support personnel through 2010.
SOURCE:
Ketchikan.
Personal communication:
K-93
Don Finney.u.S.Borax,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.25a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
U.S.BORAX KINE NEAR KETCHIKAN
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Exogenous
Construction Mining
Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.041
1983 0.040 0.041
1984 0.350 0.058
1985 0.500 0.058
1986 0.400 0.058
1987 0.300 0.428
1988 0.000 0.790
1989 0.000 0.790
1990 0.000 0.790
1991 0.000 0.790
1992 0.000 0.790
1993 0.000 0.790
1994 0.000 0.790
1995 0.000 0.790
1996 0.000 0.790
1997 0.000 0.790
1998 0.000 0.790
1999 0.000 0.790
2000 0.000 0.790
2001 0.000 0.790
2002 0.000 0.790
2003 0.000 0.790
2004 0.000 0.790
2005 0.000 0.790
2006 0.000 0.790
2007 0.000 0.790
2008 0.000 0.790
2009 0.000 0.790
2010 0.000 0.790
SOURCE:MAP KODEL CASE BXK.PJM
VARIABLES:EMCNX2 EMP9
K-94
-
"""
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.25b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
U.S.BORAX MINE NEAR KETCHIKAN
(thousands of employees)
Southeast Alaska
1982 0.041
1983 0.081
1984 0.408
1985 0.558
1986 0.458
1987 0.728
1988 0.790
1989 0.790
1990 0.790
1991 0.790
1992 0.790
1993 0.790
1994 0.790
1995 0.790
1996 0.790
1997 0.790
1998 0.790
1999 0.790
20aO 0.790
2001 0.790
2002 0.790
2003 0.790
2004 0.790
2005 0.790
2006 0.790
2007 0.790
2008 0.790
2009 0.790
2010 0.790
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE BXM.PJM
VARIABLE:811
K-95
K-96
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
11.Greens Creek Mine
Production of the Greens Creek mine on Admiralty Island begins
by 1986.Mining employment averages 315 from 1986 through 1996,
while construction employment in mine development peaks at 190 in
1985.This assumes an eleven-year life for the mine and housing for
miners in Juneau (Greens Creek Mine Draft EIS,pp.4-102,2-42).
SOURCE:Greens Creek Kine Draft EIS,U.S.D.A.Forest Service,
August 1982,pp.4-93.
K-97
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.26a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
GREENS CREEK MINE
(thousands of employees)
Mining
EmpJ,.oyment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.315
1987 0.315
1988 0.315
1989 0.315
1990 0.315
1991 0.315
1992 0.315
1993 0.315
1994 0.315
1995 0.315
1996 0.315
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GCM.082
VARIABLE:EMP9
K-98
-
-
-
-
,....
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.26b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
GREENS CREEK MINE
(thousands of employees)
Southeast Alaska
1982 0.000
1983 0.015
1984 0.120
1985 0.190
1986 0.315
1987 0.315
1988 0.315
1989 0.315
1990 0.315
1991 0.315
1992 0.315
1993 0.315
1994 0.315
1995 0.315
1996 0.315
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GCM.082
VARIABLE:Bll
K-99
K-100
.....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation .~
Kay 1983
-'1
-
-,
I~
r--
I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
12.Red Dog Mine
The Red Dog lead,zinc,and silver mine is expected to be
developed jointly by NANA and COHINCO in the Western Brooks Range.
We assume construction beginning in 1984,with average annual
employment of 150-200 in the Kobuk census division.Full production
by 1988 will employ approximately 450.
SOURCE:Personal communication:Bradford Tuck.
K-lOl
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.27a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOKIC ASSUMPTIONS
RED DOG KINE
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Exogenous
Construction Kining
Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.025
1983 0.000 0.025
1984 0.100 0.035
1985 0.150 0.021
1986 0.200 0.026
1987 0.150 0.021
1988 0.000 0.448
1989 0.000 0.448
1990 0.000 0.448
1991 0.000 0.448
1992 0.000 0.448
1993 0.000 0.448
1994 0.000 0.448
1995 0.000 0.448
1996 0.000 0.448
1997 0.000 0.448
1998 0.000 0.448
1999 0.000 0.448
2000 0.000 0.448
2001 0.000 0.448
2002 0.000 0.448
2003 0.000 0.448
2004 0.000 0.448
2005 0.000 0.448
2006 0.000 0.448
2007 0.000 0.448
2008 0.000 0.448
2009 0.000 0.448
2010 0.000 0.448
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE RED.PJH
VARIABLES:EMCNX2 EMP9
K-I02
'''''l
~I
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.27b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
RED DOG MINE
r-(thousands of employees)
Kobuk
-
1982 0.025
1983 0.025
1984 0.135
1985 0.171
1986 0.226
1987 0.171
1988 0.448
1989 0.448
1990 0.448
1991 0.448
1992 0.448
·1993 0.448
1994 0.448
1995 0.448
1996 0.448
1997 0.448
1998 0.448
1999 0.448
2000 0.448
2001 0.448
2002 0.448
2003 0.448
2004 0.448
2005 0.448
2006 0.448
2007 0.448
2008 0.448
2009 0.448
2010 0.448
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE RED.PJH
VARIABLE:814
K-103
K-104
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
13.Other Mining
In 1980,the latest year for which complete figures are
available,3,850 people were employed in mining in addition to work
on the speci al proj ec ts di scus sed above.Of these,2,660 were in
Anchorage,and 47 were located in Fairbanks (Alaska Department of
Labor,Statistical Quarterly).From 1980 to 1982,the Alaska
Department of Labor projects that mining employment has increased to
3,900 in Anchorage,and to approximately 200 in Fairbanks.This
employment consists of a broad combination of administrative
personnel in Anchorage associated with minerals industries,a
variety of.petroleum and hard-rock mineral exploration acti vi ties
located around the state,and ongoing hard-rock mining.
We assume that such employment increases at 1 percent annually
through 2010,maintaining the current regibnal distribution of
employment.
SOURCE:Alaska Department of Labor,Statistical Quarterly,and
Alaska Economic Trends,March 1980.
K-105
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research --
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.28a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER MINING
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 5.267
1983 5.319
1984 5.372
1985 5.426
1986 5.481
1987 5.535
1988 5.591
1989 5.647
1990 5.703
1991 5.760
1992 5.818
1993 5.876
1994 5.934
1995 5.994
1996 6.054
1997 6.114
1998 6.175
1999 6.237
2000 6.299
2001 6.362
2002 6.426
2003 6.490
2004 6.555
2005 6.621
2006 6.687
2007 6.754
2008 6.821
2009 6.890
2010 6.958
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OMN.083
VARIABLE:EMP9
-.
-
K-106
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.28b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER MINING
<thousands of employees)
r-Aleutian Barrow-Cordova-
Islands Anchorage North Slope Bethel McCarthy
1982 0.016 3.900 0.821 0.004 0.054
1983 0.016 3.939 0.829 0.004 0.054
1984 0.016 3.978 0.838 0.004 0.055
1985 0.016 4.018 0.846 0.004 0.055
1986 0.016 4.058 0.855 0.004 0.056
1987 0.016 4.099 0.863 0.004 0.056
1988 0.016 4.140 0.872 0.004 0.057
1989 0.017 4.181 0.880 0.005 0.058
1990 0.017 4.223 0.889 0.005 0.058
1991 0.017 4.265 0.898 0.005 0.059
1992 0.017 4.308 0.907 0.005 0.059
1993 0.017 4.351 0.916 0.005 0.060
1994 0.017 4.395 0.925 0.005 0.061
1995 0.018 4.439 0.934 0.005 0.061
1996 0.018 4.483 0.944 0.005 0.062
1997 0.018 4.528 0.953 0.005 0.062
1998 0.018 4.573 0.963 0.005 0.063,...1999 0.018 4.619 0.972 0.005 0.064
2000 0.019 4.665 0.982 0.005 0.064
2001 0.019 4.712 0.992 0.005 0.065
2002 0.019 4.759 1.002 0.005 0.066
2003 0.019 4.806 1.012 0.005 0.066
2004 0.019 4.854 1.022 0.005 0.067
2005 0.020 4.903 1.032 0.005 0.068
2006 0.020 4.952 1.042 0.005 0.068.-2007 0.020 5.002 1.053 0.005 0.069
2008 0.020 5.052 1.063 0.005 0.070
2009 0.020 5.102 1.074 0.006 0.070
2010 0.021 5.153 1.085 0.006 0.071
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OHN.083
VARIABLES:B01 B02 B04 B05 B08
K-107
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.28b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER MINING
(continued)
-
-
-"
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.28b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER MINING
(continued)
Upper Va1dez-Chitina-Yukon-
Nome Seward Yukon Whi ttier Koyukuk
1982 0.100 0.017 0.010 0.004 0.091
1983 0.101 0.018 0.010 0.004 0.091--1984 0.102 0.018 0.011 0.004 0.092
1985 0.103 0.018 0.011 0.004 0.093
1986 0.104 0.018 0.011 0.004 0.094
1987 0.105 0.018 0.011 0.004 0.095
1988 0.106 0.019 0.011 0.004 0.096
1989 0.107 0.019 0.011 0.005 0.097
1990 0.108 0.019 0.011 0.005 0.098
1991 0.109 0.019 0.011 0.005 0.099r19920.110 0.019 0.011 0.005 0.100
1993 0.112 0.019 0.012 0.005 0.101
1994 0.113 0.020 0.012 0.005 0.102
1995 0.114 0.020 0.012 0.005 0.103
1996 0.115 0.020 0.012 0.005 0.104
1997 0.116 0.020 0.012 0.005 0.105r-1998 0.117 0.020 0.012 0.005 0.106
1999 0.118 0.021 0.012 0.005 0.107
2000 0.120 0.021 0.012 0.005 0.108
r-
2001 0.121 0.021 0.013 0.005 0.109
2002 0.122 0.021 0.013 0.005 0.111
,....2003 0.123 0.022 0.013 0.005 0.112
2004 0.124 0.022 0.013 0.005 0.113
2005 0.126 0.022 0.013 0.005 0.114
2006 0.127 0.022 0.013 0.005 0.115
2007 0.128 0.022 0.013 0.005 0.116
2008 0.129 0.023 0.013 0.005 0.117
r 2009 0.131 0.023 0.014 0.006 0.118
lJ 2010 0.132 0.023 0.014 0.006 0.120
SOURCE:HAP MODEL CASE OMN.083
VARIABLES:B18 B21 825 B26 B29
K-109
K-110
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
~I
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
14.Agriculture
Agriculture experiences moderate growth.In light of declining
state revenues,state support of agriculture declines.Development
is limited to the Delta region in the Tanana Valley,with marginal
development taking place in the Nenana area.Growth in the
Matanuska Valley is minimal.and Point MacKenzie development in
dairy farming will also be minimal.Dairy price supports,
politically vulnerable.will be reduced making long run competition
for Alaskan dairy products very difficult.No growth takes place in
the Susitna Valley.
Eighty thousand acres of the Delta projects as well as half of
the average of the Nenana projects (87.500 acres)are assumed to be
brought into production gradually by the yea~2000.The employment
figures for that acreage are determined assuming that two
agricultural jobs are created by each 1.000 acres brought into grain
production.This yields a 10.6 percent rate of growth over the
20-year period.Beyond the year 2000,a 3 percent rate of growth is
assumed.
Total production in the Matanuska-Susitna region is assumed to
grow by 2 percent per year.Dairy farms and truck farms at Point
MacKenzie grow marginally.
SOURCE:state of Alaska.Agricultural Action Council,First
Report;and Mike Herker,Financing Agricultural Projects in Alaska.
K-lll
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.29a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
AGRICULTURE
(thousands of employees)
Agriculture
Employment
1982 0.194
1983 0.203
1984 0.211
1985 0.219
1986 0.228
1987 0.239
1988 0.250
1989 0.263
1990 0.276
1991 0.291
1992 0.306
1993 0.325
1994 0.343
1995 0.365
1996 0.389
1997 0.414
1998 0.442
1999 0.474
2000 0.508
2001 0.527
2002 0.546
2003 0.568
2004 0.589
2005 0.611
2006 0.634
2007 0.660
2008 0.686
2009 0.712
2010 0.740
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE AGR.PJM
VARIABLE:EMAGRI
K-112
-
-
~
I
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
,,-TABLE K.29b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
AGRICULTURE
<thousands of employees)
Aleutian Kenai-Matanuska-
Islands Fairbanks Cook Inlet Kodiak Susitna
1982 0.013 0.053 0.008 0.005 0.115
1983 0.013 0.060 0.009 0.005 0.116
1984 0.013 0.066 0.009 0.006 0.117-1985 0.013 0.073 0.009 0.006 0.118
1986 0.013 0.080 0.009 0.006 0.120
/"""I 1987 0.013 0.089 0.010 0.006 0.121
1988 0.013 0.099 0.010 0.006 0.122
1989 0.013 0.110 0.010 0.007 0.123
1990 0.013 0.121 0.011 0.007 0.124
1991 0.013 0.134 0.011 0.007 0.126
1992 0.013 0.148 0.011 0.007 0.127
"'""1993 0.013 0.165 0.012 0.007 0.128
1994 0.013 0.182 0.012 0.007 0.129
1995 0.013 0.201 0.012 0.008 0.131
1996 0.013 0.223 0.013 0.008 0.132
1997 0.013 0.247 0.013 0.008 0.133
1998 0.013 0.273 0.013 0.008 0.135
1999 0.013 0.302 0.014 0.009 0.136
2000 0.013 0.335 0.014 0.009 0.137-2001 0.013 0.351 0.015 0.009 0.139
2002 0.013 0.369 0.015 0.009 0.140
2003 0.013 0.387 0.016 0.010 0.142
2004 0.013 0.407 0.016 0.010 0.143
!"""2005 0.013 0.427 0.017 0.010 0.144
2006 0.013 0.448 0.017 0.010 0.146
2007 0.013 0.471 0.018 0.011 0.147
2008 0.013 0.495 0.018 0.011 0.149
2009 0.013 0.519 0.019 0.011 0.150-2010 0.013 0.545 .0.019 0.012 0.151
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE AGR.PJMr-VARIABLES:B01 B09 B12 B15 B17
K-l13
K-114
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
....,
-
1''''']
.-.,
-
'"'""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
15.Forest and Lumber Products
Employment in the forest and lumber products industry expands to
over 3,200 by 1990,remains stable for a decade,and then declines
to 2,800 by the year 2010.Timber harvests in national forests
(primarily,Tongass in Southeast)remains at its long run sustained
yield at 450 MMBF annually.The harvest on national forest land is
the only harvest that contributes to jobs in the processing side of
the industry,as most other harvesting has no primary processing
requirements.The major harvest,other than that in Tongass
National Forest,comes from Native regional and village corporation
land located in Southeast,the Prince William Sound area,and on
Afognak Island.Total harvestable timber on these lands,which 1S
mature timber,is approximately 18.4 MMMBF,of which most will be
harvested by the year 2010.All that will remain to be harvested of
this timber is about 3 MMMBF in Southeast Alaska,which will be
harvested over the 2010-2020 decade.Employment in the areas
outside of these major areas is expected to grow according to local
needs,which will be moderate.Over the next three decades mos t
local domestic lumber needs,aside from a few rough cut mills,will
be supplied by imported kiln dried lumber.
SOURCE:Alaska Department of Labor,Alaska Economic Trends;
J.Mehrkins,1982 Timber Supply and Demand,Draft,U.S.F.S.,Juneau,
November 1982;Land Settlement Alternatives for the Chugach Region,
ISER,October 1981;and E.L.Arobio,A.F.Gasbarro,and
W.G.Workman,Chugach Land Management Plan:Supply and Demand
Assessment for Resources of the Chugach N~tional Forest,U.S.F.S.,
June 1979.
K-115
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.30a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOKIC ASSUMPTIONS
FOREST AND LUMBER PRODUCTS
(thousands of employees)
-
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE:MAP KODEL CASE FLL.083
VARIABLE:EMKX2
Low Wage Exogenous
Manufacturing Employment
2.037
2.325
2.472
2.657
2.843
3.027
3.119
3.167
3.214
3.214
3.218
3.218
3.218
3.219
3.219
3.219
3.221
3.222
3.202
3.106
2.903
2.880
2.859
2.838
2.769
2.770
2.770
2.774
2.776
K-116
-
-
-
~i
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983-,
TABLE K.30b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FOREST AND LUMBER PRODUCTS
<thousands of employees)
Cordova-Southeast Kenai-
Anchorage McCarthy Fairbanks Alaska Cook Inlet
1982 0.030 0.025 0.018 1.730 0.012
1983 0.030 0.025 0.018 2.000 0.012
1984 0.030 0.025 0.020 2.126 0.012
1985 0.030 0.071 0.020 2.264 0.013
1986 0.032 0.140 0.020 2.379 0.013
1987 0.032 0.232 0.020 2.471 0.013
1988 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.540 0.013
1989 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.586 0.013
1990 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.632 0 ..014
1991 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.632 0.014
1992 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.014,-,1993 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.014
1994 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.014
1995 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
1996 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
1997 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
1998 0.036 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
1999 0.036 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
2000 0.036 0.232 0.024 2.632 0.016
2001 0.036 0.186 0.024 2.632 0.016
2002 0.036 0.163 0.024 2.632 0.016
2003 0.036 0.140 0.024 2.632 0.016
2004 0.038 0.117 0.024 2.632 0.016
2005 0.038 0.094 0.024 2.632 0.017
2006 0.038 0.025 0.024 2.632 0.017
2007 0.038 0.025 0.024 2.632 0.017
2008 0.038 0.025 0.024 2.632 0.017
2009 0.038 0.025 0.026 2.632 0.018
P"'"2010 0.040 0.025 0.026 2.632 0.018
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE FLL.083
VARIABLES:B02 B08 B09
Bll B12
K-1l7
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.30b.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FOREST AND LUMBER PRODUCTS
<continued)
Kodiak Seward
1982 0.212 0.010
1983 0.230 0.010
1984 0.249 0.010
1985 0.249 0.010
1986 0.249 0.010
1987 0.249 0.010
1988 0.249 0.010
1989 0.249 0.012
1990 0.249 0.012
1991 0.249 0.012
1992 0.249 0.012
1993 0.249 0.012
1994 0.249 0.012
1995 0.249 0.012
1996 0.249 0.012
1997 0.249 0.012
1998 0.249 0.012
1999 0.249 0.013
2000 0.249 0.013
_2001 0.199 0.013
2002 0.019 0.013
2003 0.019 0.013
2004 0.019 0.013
2005 0.020 0.013
2006 0.020 0.013
2007 0.020 0.014
2008 0.020 0.014
2009 0.021 0.014
2010 0.021 0.014
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE FLL.083
VARIABLES:B15 B21
K-1l8
-
-.
""'"
-
-
-
"...
.....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
16.Pulp Mill Employment
Capacity in the two pulp mills in the Southeast region remains
at its current level,with no new plants likely to be feasible
anywhere in the state.Assured timber supplies through the
Ketchikan and sitka long-term contracts as well as low-quality logs
harvested from Native corporation lands should provide sufficient
supplies of low-cost raw material to keep the existing mills running
profitably at near full capacity through 2010.A gradual decline in
employment of 1 percent per year,beginning in 1984,results from
the continued introduction of new labor-saving equipment.
SOURCE:J.Mehrkins.1982 Timber Supply and Demand,Draft,
U.S.F.S.,Juneau.November 1982.
K-1l9
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.3la.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
PULP MILL EMPLOYMENT
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage Exogenous
Manufacturing Employment
1982 0.930
1983 0.980
1984 0.970
1985 0.960
1986 0.951
1987 0.941
1988 0.932
1989 0.923
1990 0.913
1991 0.904
1992 0.895
1993 0.886
1994 0.877
1995 0.869
1996 0.860
1997 0.851
1998 0.843
1999 0.834
2000 0.826
2001 0.818
2002 0.810
2003 0.802
2004 0.794
2005 0.786
2006 0.778
2007 0.770
2008 0.762
2009 0.755
2010 0.747
SOURCE:MAP HODEL CASE FPU.082
VARIABLE:EMMX2
K-120
-
-
PJ'!:!
I
-
-TABLE K.31b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
PULP MILL EMPLOYMENT
(thousands of employees)
Southeast Alaska
-
1982 0.930
1983 0.980
1984 0.970
1985 0.960
1986 0.951
1987 0.941
1988 0.932
1989 0.923
1990 0.913
1991 0.904
1992 0.895
1993 0.886
1994 0.877
1995 0.869
1996 0.860
1997 0.851
1998 0.843
1999 0.834
2000 0.826
2001 0.818
2002 0.810
2003 0.802
2004 0.794
2005 0.786
2006 0.778
2007 0.770
2008 0.762
2009 0.755
2010 0.747
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE FPU.082
VARIABLE:B11
K-121
K-122
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
....
-
,...
-
-
....
"'""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
17.Commercial Fishing (Nonbottomfish)
Existing fisheries harvesting employment returns to and remains
constant at its 1980 level of 6,363 measured on an average annual
basis.Processing employment also returns to its 1980 level of
7,123.This assumes any increase in the productivity of fisheries
can be matched by corresponding increases in food processing
produc ti vi ty .
SOURCE:G.Rogers and R.Listowski,Measuring the Socioeconomic
Impacts of Alaska's Fisheries,ISER,April 1980;and Alaska
Department of Labor,Alaska Economic Trends.
K-123
Institute of Social
and Economic Research .~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
....,
TABLE K.32a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
COMMERCIAL FISHING (NONBOTTOMFISH)
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Fish Exogenous
Harvesting Manufacturing
Employment Employment
1982 5.179 5.800
1983 6.363 7.123
1984 6.363 7.123
1985 6.363 7.123
1986 6.363 7.123
1987 6.363 7.123
1988 6.363 7.123
1989 6.363 7.123
1990 6.363 7.123
1991 6.363 7.123
1992 6.363 7.123
1993 6.363 7.123
1994 6.363 7.123
1995 6.363 7.123
1996 6.363 7.123
1997 6.363 7.123
1998 6.363 7.123
1999 6.363 7.123
2000 6.363 7.123
2001 6.363 7.123
2002 6.363 7.123
2003 6.363 7.123
2004 6.363 7.123
2005 6.363 7.123
2006 6.363 7.123
2007 6.363 7.123
2008 6.363 7.123
2009 6.363 7.123
2010 6.363 7.123
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE rCF.002
VARIABLES:EMFISH EMMX2
....,
-
K-124
K-125
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ,-
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.32b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
COMMERCIAL FISHING (NONBOTTOMFISH)
(continued)
Southeast Kenai--Alaska Cook Inlet Kobuk Kodiak Kuskokwim
1982 2.943 1.020 0.035 2.366 ~0.004
1983 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1984 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1985 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1986 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1987 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 """'i19883.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1989 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1990 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1991 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1992 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1993 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -1994 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1995 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1996 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1997 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1998 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1999 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -2000 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2001 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -2002 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2003 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2004 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2005 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2006 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2007 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2008 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2009 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2010 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE TCF.002
VARIABLES:B11 B12 B14 B15 B16
K-126
Institute of Social..-and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
r-
TABLE K.32b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
COMMERCIAL FISHING (NONBOTTOMFISH)
(continued)
""'"Valdez-Chi tina-I
Nome Seward Whi ttier Wade Hampton
,....
1982 0.044 0.048 0.043 0.179
1983 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1984 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
F 1985 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1986 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1987 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1988 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1989 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
....1990 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1991 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1992 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
I""'"1993 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1994 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1995 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220-1996 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1997 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1998 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1999 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2000 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220-2001 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2002 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2003 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2004 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2005 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2006 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220,-2001 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2008 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2009 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2010 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1""""SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE TCF.002
VARIABLES:B18 821 826 B21
,~
K-121
K-128
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
,.,...
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
r
!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
18.Catcher-Processor-Dominated Bottomfishing
The total U.S.share of the Alaska bottomfish catch expands at a
constant rate until it reaches 100 percent of the allowable harvest
by 2000.Seventy percent of the catch will be processed by
catcher-processor vessels,and 30 percent by onshore plants.
Because catcher-processor vessels operating in Alaska waters are
mostly owned and operated by fishermen res iding outs ide the state,
the Alaska total employment growth is modest.We assume only
10 percent of fishing employees in joint-venture trawlers and
catcher-processor vessels are Alaska res idents,while 50 percent of
workers in the shore-based processing plants and 50 percent of the
fishermen in the shore-based fishery are residents.
SOURCE:Navadn Basin Statewide and Regional Demographic and
Economic Systems Impacts Forecast,Technical Report Number 78,
Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program,U.S.Bureau of Land
Management,March 1983,Appendix K.
K-129
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
TABLE K.33a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
CATCHER-PROCESSOR-DOMINATED BOTTOHFISHING
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.33b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
CATCHER-PROCESSOR-DOMINATED BOTTOMFISHING
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian
Islands Anchorage
1982 0.034 0.008
1983 0.051 0.012
1984 0.071 0.016
1985 0.095 0.022
1986 0.120 0.028
1987 0.146 0.034
1988 0.165 0.038
1989 0.200 0.043
1990 0.220 0.051
1991 0.246 0.057
1992 0.280 0.065
1993 0.325 0.075
1994 0.385 0.089
1995 0.463 0.107
1996 0.566 0.131
1997 0.703 0.163
1998 0.884 0.205
1999 1.125 0.261
2000 1.383 0.321
2001 1.383 0.321
2002 1.383 0.321
2003 1.383 0.321
2004 1.383 0.321
2005 1.383 0.321
2006 1.383 0.321
2007 1.383 0.321
2008 1.383 0.321
2009 1.383 0.321
2010 1.383 0.321
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE BCF.183
VARIABLES:B01 B02
K-131
K-132
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
-
-
~,
-
-
-
"""I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
19.Federal Military
Military employment has declined erratically and slowly over the
past 15 years.We assume that future military employment remains at
its 1980 average level with the same distribution around the state
as at that time.
SOURCE:Alaska Department of Labor.Statistical Quarterly,U.S.
Census,1980;and Alaska Air Command.
K-133
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL MILITARY
(thousands of employees)
Active Duty
Military Employment
1982 23.323
1983 23.323
1984 23.323
1985 23.323
1986 23.323
1987 23.323
1988 23.323
1989 23.323
1990 23.323
1991 23.323
1992 23.323
1993 23.323
1994 23.323
1995.23.323
1996 23.323
1997 23.323
1998 23.323
1999 23.323
2000 23.323
2001 23.323
2002 23.323
2003 23.323
2004 23.323
2005 23.323
2006 23.323
2007 23.323
2008 23.323
2009 23.323
2010 23.323
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLE:EKGM
K-134
-
-
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social-and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL MILITARY
f"""(thousands of employees)
.-Aleutian Barrow-Bristol Bay
Islands Anchorage North Slope Bethel Borough
F'""1982 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1983 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1984 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
,PU,1985 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1986 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369-1987 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1988 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1989 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1990 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1991 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1992 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1993 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1994 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1995 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369-1996 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1997 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1998 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1999 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2000 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1'1"'"2001 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2002 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2003 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2004 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2005 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2006 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
"....2007 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369:
2008 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2009 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369--2010 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369",
SOURCE:MAP-MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES:G01 G02 G04 G05 G06
pHI
K-135
"""I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ~
FEDERAL MILITARY
(continued)~
Cordova-Southeast Kenai-
McCarthy Fairbanks Alaska Cook Inlet Kobuk
1982 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -1983 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1984 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1985 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -
1986 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1987 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -1988 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1989 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1990 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1991 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1992 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1993 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -1994 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1995 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1996 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 ~
1997 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1998 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1999 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -2000 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2001 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2002 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2003 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2004 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2005 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2006 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2007 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -2008 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2009 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2010 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES:G08 G09 Gll G12 G14 -
K-136 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL MILITARY
".".(continued)
Matanuska-
Kodiak Kuskokwim Susitna Nome Seward
F""1982 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1983 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1984 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
I"""1985 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1986 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
""""1987 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1988 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1989 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1990 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1991 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1992 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1993 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1994 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1995 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
,....
1996 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1997 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1998 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1999 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2000 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014-2001 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2002 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2003 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2004 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2005 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2006 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2007 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2008 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2009 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2010 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES:GIS G16 G17 G18 G21
I"'"
I
K-137
Institute of Social
and Economic Research .~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL MILITARY
(continued)-
Southeast Upper Valdez-Chitina-Wade Yukon--Fairbanks Yukon Whi ttier Hampton Koyukuk
1982 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -1983 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1984 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1985 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -
1986 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1987 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -1988 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1989 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1990 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1991 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1992 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1993 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 """l
1994 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1995 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1996 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1997 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1998 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1999 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 "'"'"2000 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2001 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2002 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2003 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2004 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2005 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -
2006 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2007 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -2008 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2009 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2010 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -.
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES:G24 G25 G26 G27 G29
K-138
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
20.Federal Civilian
Federal ci vi!ian governmen t employmen t has grown his tori cally in
Alaska at about 0.5 percent annually over the past two decades.We
assume this trend continues through 2010,with the regional
distribution similar to the 1980 distribution.
SOURCE:Alaska Department of Labor,Statistical Quarterly,and
Alaska Economic Trends,March 1983.
K-139
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.35a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
(thousands of employees)
Civilian
Federal Employment
1982 17.900
1983 17.989
1984 18.079
1985 18.170
1986 18.261
1987 18.352
1988 18.444
1989 18.536
1990 18.629
1991 18.722
1992 18.815
1993 18.909
1994 19.004
1995 19.099
1996 19.194
1997 19.290
1998 19.387
1999 19.484
2000 19.581
2001 19.679
2002 19.777
2003 19.876
2004 19.976
2005 20.076
2006 20.176
2007 20.277
2008 20.378
2009 20.480
2010 20.583
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLE:EMGC
K-140
-
"""
-
-
-
-
.....
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.35b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
r"'"(thousands of employees)
.Aleutian Barrow-Bristol Bay
Islands Anchorage North Slope Bethel Borough
1982 0.7.02 9.738 0.247 0.410 0.192
1983 0.705 9.786 0.248 0.412 0.192
1984 0.709 9.835 0.249 0.414 0.193
1985 0.712 9.884 0.251 0.416 0.194
1986 0.716 9.934 0.252 0.418 0.195-1987 0.719 9.983 0.253 0.420 0.196
I 1988 0.723 10.033 0.255 0.422 0.197
1989 0.727 10.084 0.256 0.424 0.198
1990 0.730 10.134 0.257 0.427 0.199
!"'"
1991 0.734 10.185 0.258 0.429 0.200
1992 0.738 10.236 0.260 0.431 0.201
1993 0.741 10.287 0.261 0.433 0.202
1994 0.745 10.338 0.262 0.435 0.203
1995 0.749 10.390 0.264 0.437 0.204
1996 0.752 10.442 0.265 0.440 0.205
1997 0.756 10.494 0.266 0.442 0.206
1998 0.760 10.546 0.268 0.444 0.207
r""1999 0.764 10.599 0.269 0.446 0.208
2000 0.768 10.652 0.270 0.448 0.210
r 2001 0.771 10.705 0.272 0.451 0.211
2002 0.775 10.759 0.273 0.453 0.212
2003 0.779 10.813 0.274 0.455 0.213
2004 0.783 10.867 0.276 0.457 0.214r-2005 0.787 10.921 0.277 0.460 0.215
2006 0.791 10.976 0.278 0.462 0.216
2007 0.795 11.031 0.280 0.464 0.217
2008 0.799 11.086 0.281 0.467 0.218
2009 0.803 11.141 0.283 0.469 0.219
2010 0.807 11.197 0.284 0.471 ·0.220
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES:G01 G02 G04 G05 G06
K-141
Institute of Social
and Economic Research /11!1!!
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.35b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
(continued)
Cordova-Southeast Kenai
McCarthy Fairbanks Alaska Cook Inlet Kobuk
1982 0.036 2.314 2.402 0.104 0.247 """".
1983 0.036 2.326 2.414 0.104 0.248
1984 0.036 2.338 2.426 0.105 0.249
1985 0.036 2.349 2.438 0.105 0.251
1986 0.037 2.361 2.451 0.106 0.252
1987 0.037 2.373 2.463 0.106 0.253
1988 0.037 2.385 2.475 0.107 0.255 ~
1989 0.037 2.397 2.488 0.108 0.256
1990 0.037 2.409 2.500 0.108 0.257 -1991 0.037 2.421 2.512 0.109 0.258
1992 0.038 2.433 2.525 0.109 0.260
1993 0.038 2.445 2.538 0.110 0.261
1994 0.038 2.457 2.550 0.110 0.262
1995 0.038 2.469 2.563 0.111 0.264
1996 0.038 2.482 2.576 0.111 0.265
1997 0.039 2.494 2.589 0.112 0.266
1998 0.039 2.507 2.602 0.112 0.268
1999 0.039 2.519 2.615 0.113 0.269 ""'"2000 0.039 2.532 2.628 0.114 0.270
2001 0.039 2.545 2.641 0.114 0.272
2002 0.040 2.557 2.654 0.115 0.273
2003 0.040 2.570 2.667 0.115 0.274
2004 0.040 2.583 2.681 0.116 0.276
2005 0.040 2.596 2.694 0.116 0.277
2006 0.040 2.609 2.708 0.117 0.278
2007 0.041 2.622 2.721 0.118 0.280 """J
2008 0.041 2.635 2.735 0.118 0.281
2009 0.041 2.648 2.748 0.119 0.283
2010 0.041 2.661 2.762 0.119 0.284
.111!!<'\
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES:G08 G09 GIl G12 G14
K-142
....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
"'"'TABLE K.35b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
~(continued)
-Matanuska
Kodiak Kuskokwim Susitna Nome Seward
1982 0.285 0.077 0.097 0.177 0.068
1983 0.286 0.077 0.097 0.178 0.068
1984 0.287 0.078 0.098 0.179 0.069
1985 0.289 0.078 0.098 0.180 0.069
1986 0.290 0.079 0.099 0.181 0.069
1987 0.292 0.079 0.099 0.182 0.070
1988 0.293 0.079 0.100 0.183 0.070
1989 0.295 0.080 0.100 0.184 0.070
1990 0.296 0.080 0.101 0.184 0.071
I"""
1991 0.298 0.081 0.101 0.185 0.071
1992 0.299 0.081 0.102 0.186 0.071
1993 0.301 0.081 0.102 0.187 0.072
1994 0.302 0.082 0.103 0.188 0.072
1995 0.304 0.082 0.103 0.189 0.073
1996 0.305 0.083 0.104 0.190 0.073
1997 0.307 0.083 0.104 0.191 0.073
1998 0.308 0.083 0.105 0.192 0.074
1999 0.310 0.084 0.105 0.193 0.074
2000 0.311 0.084 0.106 0.194 0.074
2001 0.313 0.085 0.106 0.195 0.075
2002 0.314 0.085 0.107 0.196 0.075
2003 0.316 0.085 0.107 0.197 0.076
2004 0.318 0.086 0.108 0.198 0.076
2005 0.319 0.086 0.108 0.199 0.076
2006 0.321 0.087 0.109 0.200 0.077
2007 0.322 0.087 0.109 0.201 0.077
2008 0.324 0.088 0.110 0.202 0.077
2009 0.326 0.088 0.111 0.203 0.078
2010 0.327 0.089 0.111 0.204 0.078
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES:GIS G16 G17 G18 G21
K-143
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -,
TABLE K.35b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
(continued)
Southeast Upper Va1dez-Chitna Wade Yukon """
Fairbanks Yukon Whi ttier Hampton Koyukuk -
1982 0.335 0.034 0.045 0.134 0.258
1983 0.336 0.034 0.045 0.135 0.259
1984 0.338 0.034 0.045 0.136 0.260
1985 0.340 0.035 0.045 0.136 0.262
1986 0.341 0.035 0.046 0.137 0.263
1987 0.343 0.035 0.046 0.138 0.264
1988 0.345 0.035 0.046 0.138 0.266
1989 0.347 0.035 0.046 0.139 0.267
""'"1990 0.348 0.035 0.047 0.140 0.268
1991 0.350 0.036 0.047 0.140 0.270
1992 0.352 0.036 0.047 0.141 0.271 lI"'I\,
1993 0.354 0.036 0.047 0.142 0.272
1994 0.355 0.036 0.048 0.143 0.274
1995 0.357 0.036 0.048 0.143 0.275 -
1996 0.359 0.036 0.048 0.144 0.276
1997 0.361 0.037 0.048 0.145 0.278
1998 0.363 0.037 0.048 0.145 0.279
1999 0.364 0.037 0.049 0.146 0.281
2000 0.366 0.037 0.049 0.147 0.282
~
2001 0.368 0.037 0.049 0.148 0.283
2002 0.370 0.038 0.049 0.148 0.285
2003 0.372 0.038 0.050 0.149 0.286 ~
2004 0.374 0.038 0.050 0.150 0.288
2005 0.375 0.038 0.050 0.151 0.289
2006 0.377 0.038 0.050 0.151 0.291 """',
2007 0.379 0.039 0.051 0.152 0.292
2008 0.381 0.039 0.051 0.153 0.293
2009 0.383 0.039 0.051 0.154 0.295 -2010 0.385 0.039 0.051 0.154 0.296
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES:G24 G25 G26 G27 G29
,K-144 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
21.Tourism
THe number of visitors to Alaska has increased by an average of
approximately 50.000 per year over the past five years.We project
this trend to continue as a linear (rather than exponential>trend
through 2010.projected from a 1981 base of 630.000.
SOURCE:Alaska Department of Commerce.Division of Tourism.
K-145
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.36a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TOURISM
Tourists Entering
Alaska (000)
.....
1982 680.000
1983 730.000
1984 780.000
1985 830.000
1986 880.000
1987 930.000
1988 980.000
1989 1030.000
1990 1080.000
1991 1130.000
1992 1180.000
1993 1230.000
1994 1280.000
1995 1330.000
1996 1380.000
1997 1430.000
1998 1480.000
1999 1530.000
2000 1580.000
2001 1630.000
2002 1680.000
2003 1730.000
2004 1780.000
2005 1830.000
2006 1880.000
2007 1930.000
2008 1980.000
2009 2030.000
2010 2080.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE TRS.082
VARIABLE:TOURIST
-
-
-
-
-
K-146
I~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
22.Petroleum Revenues
In addition to basic employment assumptions,major elements of
state petroleum revenues are located in the scenario model files.
Royalty and production tax revenue projections are taken from
Petroleum Production Revenue Forecast,a quarterly publication of
Alaska Department of Revenue,Petroleum Revenue Division,which
publishes the results of simulations using the model PETREV.State
corporate petroleum tax revenue is assumed to'grow at 7 percent
nominal growth rate over time,consistent with the increasing
physical presence of the industry in the state.Non-OeS related
state property tax revenue increases at 3.S percent annually
reflecting the net effects of both inflation,depreciation of the
existing stock of taxable p~troleum property within the state.
State bonus payment revenue is a function of state lease sales and
consequently subject to very substantial year-to-year fluctuation.
This source of revenue is assumed to fall to zero over an
approximately lS-year period.
K-147
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.37.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
50 %PROBABILITY PETROLEUM REVENUES
(millions of current $)
State
State State State Corporate
Bonus Property State Production Petroleum
Payment Tax Royalty Tax Tax
Revenue Revenue Income Revenue Revenue
1590.000 668.900
iO'!'i',
1982 6.700 142.700 1530.000
1983 26.100 148.600 1430.000 1480.000 235.000
1984 11.066 153.200 1200.000 1220.000 272.000
1985 4.692 158.000 1240.000 1260.000 295.000
1986 1.990 163.456 1350.000 1350.000 315.650
1987 0.844 169.101 1450.000 1430.000 337.745 -I19880.358 174.940 1520.000 1500.000 361.387
1989 0.152 180.981 1650.000 1380.000 386.684
1990 0.064 187.231 1710.000 1420.000 413.751 ""'"i
1991 0.027 193.697 1570.000 1230.000 442.714
1992 0.012 200.385 1550.000 1150.000 473.704
1993 0.005 207.305 1520.000 1110.000 506.863
1994 0.002 214.464 1500.000 1090.000 542.343
1995 0.001 221.870 1410.000 1000.000 580.306
1996 0.000 22 9.532 1290.000 910.000 620.927
1997 0.000 237.458 1330.000 930.000 664.392
1998 0.000 245.658 1340.000 910.000 710.899
1999 0.000 254.141 1350.000 860.000 760.662 -
2000 0.000 262.917 1370.384 843.918 813.907
2001 0.000 271.996 1391.076 828.136 870.881
2002 0.000 281.389 1412.081 812.650 931.842
2003 0.000 291.106 1433.402 797.453 997.070
2004 0.000 301.158 1455.046 782.541 1066.865 -2005 0.000 311.558 1477.016 767.907 1141.545
2006 0.000 322.317 1499.318 753.547 1221.453
2007 0.000 3.33.447 1521.957 739.456 1306.954 -2008 0.000 344.962 1544.938 72 5.628 1398.440
2009 0.000 356.874 1568.266 712.058 1496.331
2010 0.000 369.198 1591.946 698.743 1601.073
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE DOR.5M83
VARIABLES:RPBS RPPS RPRY RPTS RTCSPX
K-148
.....
~'
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX L
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
INPUT VARIABLES
L.1 Exogenous and Policy Variables
L.2 Startup Values for 1980 and 1981
Institute of Social
and Economic Research,....MAP Documentation
May 1983
,/IfI1ffii,L.l.Exogenous and Policy Variables
ANCSA BADD BALDFl BALGFl BALPF1 BAL991
1981 325.6 O.O.82l.1827.3 2648.3
1982 O.O.O.O.3212.8 3212.8
1983 O.O.o.o.o.O.
1984 O. O.O.O.O.O.
1985 O.O.O.O.O. O.
1986 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1987 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1988 O. O.o.o.o.O.
1989 O. O.O. O.O.O.
1990 O. O.O.O.O.O.
1991 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1992 O.O.O.O.O.O.-1993 O.O.O.O.O. O.
1994 O. O.O.O.O.O.
1995 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1996 O.O.O.O.O.O.i~
1997 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1998 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1999 O.O.O.O.O.O.
2000 O.O.O.O.O.O.
2001 O.O. O.O.O.O.
2002 O.O.O.O.O.O.
2003 O. O.O.O.O.O.
2004 O.O. O.O.O.O.
2005 O.O.O.O.O.O.
2006 O. O. O.O.O. O.,-2007 O.O.O. O.O.O.
2008 O. O. O.O.O.O.
2009 O.O.O.O.O.O.
"...2010 O.O.O.O.O. O.
SOURCE:Simulation APABASE8.
IIIlIl!I1!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
BASEMCNX BASEPOP BAS EXCAP BASEXGF BASEXOPS BASPDRPI
1981 1-1- 1-1-l.1-
1982 1-l.1-1-1-1-
1983 1-1-1-1-l.1-~
1984 l.1-1-1-1-1-
1985 l.1-1-1-1-1-
1986 L 1-1-1-1-1-
1987 l.1-l.1-1-1-
1988 1-1-l.1-l.1-
1989 l.1-l.l.l.l.
1990 l.1-l.l.l.l.-1991 1-l.1-1-1-l.
1992 1-l.l.l.l.1-
1993 1- 1-l.1-l.1-
1994 1-l.l.1-1-1-
1995 1-1-l.1-1-l.
1996 l. l.l.1-1-1-
1997 1-l.l.1-l.l.-,
1998 l. l.l.1-1- 1-
1999 l. l.1-l.l.l.
2000 1-1-l.1-l.1-
2001 l. l.1-1-l. l.
2002 1-l. l. l.l.1-
2003 l.1-l.l. l.L
2004 1-l.l.1-l.l.
2005 l. l.1-l. l.l.
2006 l.l.1-l. l.l.
2007 l.1-1-1.l.L ~
2008 l. l.1-l.l.l.
2009 l.l. l.l.l.l.
2010 1-1.1-l.l.L ~-
-
,~,
-
"""
L-2
,os»
Institute of Social
and Economic Research,....MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
BIU1 D.80DEC6 061.66 D61.68 D61.69 061.70
1981 O.1.O.O. O. O.
1982 O.1.O.O. O.O.
1983 O.1.O.O.O.O.
1984 O.0.75 O.O.O.O.
1985 O.0.5 O.O. O.O.
1986 O.0.25 O.O.O.O.
1987 O.O.O.O.O. O.
1988 O.O.O. O.O. O.
1989 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1990 O.O.O.O.O. O.
1991 O.O.O.O.o.O.
1992 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1993 O.O. O.O.O.O.
1994 O.O. O.O.O. O.
1995 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1996 O.O.O.O. O. O.
1997 O.O.O.O.O. O.
1998 O.O. O.O.O.O.
1999 O.O.O.O.O. O.
2000 O.O.O.O. O.O.
2001 O.O. O.O.O.O.
~2002 O.O.O.O.O.O.
2003 O.O.o.o.o.O.
2004 O. O.O.O.O.O.
2005 O.O.O.O. O. O.
2006 O. O. O.O. O. O.
2007 O.O.O.O.O.O.
2008 O. O. O. O.O.O.
2009 O. O.O.O.O.O.
2010 O.O.O.O.O.O.
-
--
-L-3
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983 JII'ii!lI.
-D61,72 D61.73 D61.74 D61.75 D61,76 D61.77
1981 O.O.O.O.0,O.~1982 O.O.O.O.0,O.
1983 O.O.O.0,O.O.
1984 O.O.0,O.0,O.
1985 O.O.0,O.O.O.
1986 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1987 O.O.0,0,O.O.
1988 O.O.O.O.O.O.
1989 O.O.o.O.o.O.
1990 O.O. O.0,O.0,
1991 O.O. O.0,O.O.
1992 O.O.O.0,o.0,-,
1993 O. O.O.0,O. O.
1994 O.O..O.O.O.0,
1995 O.O.0,O.O.0,.-
1996 O. O.O.O.O.O.
1997 O.O.0,O.O.0,
1998 O.O.0,O.O.O.-1999 O. O.O.O.O.0,
2000 O.O.0,O.O.O.
2001 O.O.O.0,O.0,
2002 O.O.0,O.O.0,-
2003 O.O.0,O.o.O.
2004 O.O.0,O.O.O.
2005 O.O.0,O.O.O.-2006 O.O.0,O.O.O.
2007 O.O.0,O.O. O.
2008 O.O.0,O.0,O.-.2009 O. O.O.O.O.0,
2010 O.O. O.O.O. O.-
-
-
L-4
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
F""MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
,-
D64.65 D69 D71.00 D71.73 072 075
1981 O.O.1.O. O.O.
1982 O.O.1.O. O.O.
1983 O. O.1.O.O.O.
1984 O. O.1.O. O.O.
I"""1985 O. O.1.O. O.O.
1986 O.O.1.O.O.O.
1987 O. O.1.O.O.O.
1988 O.O.1.O.O. O.
1989 O.O.1.O.O.O.
1990 O. O.1.O. O.O.
1991 O.O.1.O.O.O.
1992 O. O.1.O.O.O.
1993 O.O.1.O. O.O.
1994 O.O.1.O. O.O......1995 O.O.1.O.O.O.
1996 O. O.1.O.O.O.
1997 O.O.1.O.O.O.
1998 O.O.1.O.O.O.
1999 O.O.1.O.O.O.
2000 O. O.1.O.O.O.
2001 O. O.1.O.O.O.
2002 O.O.1.O.O.O.
2003 O. O.1.O.O.O.
2004 O.O.1.O.O.o.
,.....2005 O. O.1.O. O.O.
2006 O.O.1.O.O.O.
2007 O.O.1.O.O.O.
2008 O.O.1.O.O.O......
2009 O.O.1.O.O.O.
2010 O.O.1.O.O.O.
I"""
I
L-S
""""I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
JIIIIII!'I,
-
D77 .00 D79 D81.00 EMAGRI EMCNXI EMCNX2 -1981 1.O.1.0.188 1.433 O.
1982 1.O.1.0.194 2.269 0.125
1983 1.O.1.0.203 3.261 0.29
1984 1.O.1.0.211 2.203 0.726 ~
1985 1.O.1.0.219 2.627 0.863
1986 1.O.1.0.228 2.911 0.85
1987 1.O.1.0.239 3.069 0.613
1988 1.O.1.0.25 3.128 0.401
1989 1.O.1.0.263 3.244 0.875
1990 1.O.1.0.276 4.276 1.025
1991 1.O.1.0.291 1.667 1.125 -1992 1.O.1.0.306 6.301 1.075
1993 1.O.1.0.325 5.164 0.563
1994 1.O.1.0.343 2.141 0.1
1995 1.O.1.0.365 1.529 O.
1996 1.O.1.0.389 1.303 O.
1997 1.O.1.0.414 1.303 O.""'I19981.O.1.0.442 1.07 O.
1999 1.O.1.0.474 1.07 O.
2000 1.O.1.0.508 1.07 O.
2001 1.O.1.0.527 1.07 O.~
2002 1.O.1.0.546 1.07 O.
2003 1.O.1.0.568 1.07 O.
2004 1.O.1.0.589 1.07 O.
2005 1.O.1.0.611 1.07 O.
2006 1.O.1.0.634 1.07 O.
2007 1.O.1.0.66 1.063 O.
~2008 1.O.1.0.686 1.063 O.
2009 1.O.1.0.712 1.056 O.
2010 1.O.1.0.74 1.056 O.
.....
L-6
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-EMFISH EMGC EMGM EHMX1 EHMX2 EMNATX
1981 6.552 17:6 23.323 O.10.283 0.17
1982 5.217 17.9 23.323 O.8.771 0.17
1983 6.421 17.989 23.323 O.10.433 0.17
1984 6.444 18.079 23.323 O.10.571 0.17
1985 6.471 18.17 23.323 O.10.749 0.17
1986 6.499 18.261 23.323 O.10.929 0.17
1987 6.527 18.352 23.323 O.11.107 0.17
1988 6.544 18.444 23.323 O.11.196 0.17
1989 6.579 18.536 23.323 O.11.24 0.17
1990 6.592 18.629 23.323 O.11.292 0.17
1991 6.608 18.722 23.323 O.11.299 0.17
1992 6.629 18.815 23.323 O.11.315 0.17
1993 6.655 18.909 23.323 O.11.335 0.17
1994 6.689 19.004 23.323 O.11.366 0.17
,~1995 6.731 19.099 23.323 O.11.413 0.17
1996 6.784 19.194 23.323 O.11.478 0.17
1997 6.851 19.29 23.323 O.11.571 0.17
1998 6.935 19.387 23.323 O.11.704 0.17
!""'"1999·7.041 19.484 23.323 O.11.887 0.17
2000 7.096 19.581 23.323 O.12.122 0.17
2001 7.096 19.679 23.323 O.12.018 0.17
2002 7.096 19.777 23.323 O.11.807 0.17
2003 7.096 19.876 23.323 O.11.776 0.17
2004 7.096 19.976 23.323 O.11.747 0.17
-.2005 7.096 20.076 23.323 O.11.718 0.17
2006 7.096 20.176 23.323 O.11.641 0.17
2007 7.096 20.277 23.323 O.11.634 0.17
2008 7.096 20.378 23.323 O.11.626 0.17.-
I 2009 7.096 20.48 23.323 O.11.623 0.17
2010 7.096 20.583 23.323 O.11.617 0.17
L-7
L-8
-
....
F'"
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
..-MAP Documentation
May 1983
EXDFPCNT EXDF1 EXDSSX EXGFCHY1 EXGFCNHl EXOPS1
1981 O. O.97.686 147.779 316.8 1581.6-1982 O. O.102.325 140.017 537.1 1960.
1983 O.O.136.4 100.400.2050.
1984 O.O.131.2 O.O.O.
1985 O.O.125.7 O.O.O.
1986 O.O.121.6 O.O.O.
1987 O.O.115.2 O.O.O.
1988 O.O.110.O.O.O.
1989 O.O.99.5 O.O.O.
1990 O. O.86.2 O. O.O.
1991 O.O.63.4 O.O.O.....1992 O.O.38.2 O. O.O.
1993 O.O.31.7 O.O.O.
1994 O.O.25.8 O.O.O.
i"""1995 O.O.23.1 O.O. O.
1996 O.O.21.5 O.O.O.
1997 O. O.16.7 O. O.O.
1998 O.0-.14.4 O. O.O.
pm 1999 O. O.9.O.O.O.
2000 O. O.2.6 O.O.O.
2001 O.O.O.O.O. O.....2002 O.O.O.O.O.o.i 2003 O. O.o.o.o.O.
2004 O.O. O.o.O.O.
2005 O.O. O.O.O.O.
2006 O.O.O.O.O.O.
2007 O.O.O. O.O.O.
2008 O.O.O.O.O.O.
i"""2009 O.O.O.O. O.o.I 2010 O.O.O.O.O.O.I
I'"'"
r
-
r-
I
L-9
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -Kay 1983
EXPFBAK EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFl EXPRPER EXSAVX ~
1981 O.900.O.0.25 l.O.
1982 O.800.l.0.25 l.O.
1983 0.5 400.l.0.25 l.O.
1984 0.5 O.l.0.25 0.8 O.
1985 0.5 0'.l.0.25 0.8 O.IIIJla!I!]
1986 0.5 O.l.0.25 0.8 O.
1987 0.5 O.l.0.25 0.8 O.
1988 0.5 O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1989 0.5 O.O.0.25 0.8 O.-1990 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1991 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1992 O. O.O.0.25 0.8 O....,
1993 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1994 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1995 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.-1996 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1997 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1998 O. O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
1999 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2000 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2001 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2002 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.-2003 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2004 O. O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2005 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
~2006 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2007 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2008 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2009 O. O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
2010 O.O.O.0.25 0.8 O.
L-10 -
f""'"
I
I
L-ll
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
~
GREXOPS GRRPCEX GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI LPTRAT
1981 0.311 0.02 -0.016 0.02 0.1 0.2
1982 0.15 0.02 0.013 0.02 0.06 0.2 ""'!
1983 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
1984 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
1985 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.069 0.2 -1986 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.069 0.2
1987 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.075 0.2
1988 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2 """I
1989 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
1990 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1991 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
.1992 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2 ~.
1993 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1994 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1995 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1996 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
1997 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
1998 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
1999 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2000 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2001 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2002 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2003 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2004 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2005 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2 ,....
2006 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2007 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2008 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2 '/IIII!I'ij20090.1 0.02
2010 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
-
L-12 -
L-13
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -Kay 1983
PDUSCPIl PIPADJ PR.DPIU1 P9PTPER RLPTX RLTFPX
1981 272 .3 1.62 3458.0.5 O.O.
~.1982 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1983 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1984 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1985 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1986 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1987 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1988 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.~i
1989 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1990 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1991 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1992 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.~
1993 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1994 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1995 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1996 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1997 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
1998 O.1.62 O.0.5 O. O.-1999 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
2000 O.1.62 O.0.5 O. O.
2001 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
2002 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.....
2003 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
2004 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
2005 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.-2006 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
2007 O.1.62 O.0.5 O. O.
2008 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.-.2009 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
2010 O.1.62 O.0.5 O.O.
~
~
I
L-14
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
RLTX RNATX RPBS RPPS RPRY RPTS
1981 O.0.07 10.1 143.1118.5 1170.2
F1,1982 O.0.07 6.7 142.7 1530.1590.i
i
1983 O.0.07 26.1 148.6 1430.1480.
1984 O.0.07 11.066 153.2 1200.1220.
r-1985 O.0.07 4.692 158.1240.1260.
1986 O.0.07 1.99 163.456 1350.1350.i
1987 O.0.07 0.844 169.101 1450.1430.
~,1988 O.0.07 0.358 174.94 1520.1500.
1989 O.0.07 0.152 180.981 1650.1380.
1990 O.0.07 0.064 187.231 1710.1420.
1991 O.0.07 0.027 193.697 1570. 1230.
,I'll"",1992 O.0.07 0.012 200.385 1550.1150.
1993 O.0.07 0.005 207.305 1520. 1110.
1994 O.0.07 0.002 214.464 1500.1090.
1995 O.0.07 0.001 221.870 1410.1000.
1996 O.0.07 O.229.532 1290.910.
1997 O.0.07 O.237.458 1330.930.
1998 O.0.07 O.245.658 1340.910.r-1999 O.0.07 O.254.141 1350.860.
2000 O.0.07 O.262.917 1370.38 843.918
2001 O.0.07 O.271.996 1391.08 828.136
~2002 O.0.07 O.281.389 1412.08 812.65
2003 O.0.07 O.291.106 1433.4 797.453
2004 O.0.07 O.301.158 1455.05 782.541
2005 O.0.07 O.311.558 1477.02 767.907
2006 O.0.07 O.322.317 1499.32 753.547
2007 O.0.07 O.333.447 1521.96 739.456
2008 O.0.07 O.344.962 1544.94 725.628
r~2009 O.0.07 O.356.874 1568.27 712.058
2010 O.0.07 O.369.198 1591.95 698.743
I~
L-15
",...
I
~-t
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
,~MAP Documentation
May 1983
.~
RP9X RSFDNPX RSFDNX RTCSPX RTCSX RTISXX
1981 O.11.3 O.860.1 O.80.~
1982 O.21.9 O.668.9 O.O.
1983 O.23.O.235.O.O.
1984 O.24.O.272.O.O.
1985 O.25.O.295.O.O.~,
1986 O.26.O.315.65 O.O.
1987 O.27.O.337.745 O.O.
1988 O.28.O.361.387 O.O.~
1989 O.29.O.386.684 O.O.
1990 O.30.O.413.751 O.O.
1991 O.31.O.442.714 O.O.
1992 O.32.O.473.704 O.O.
1993 O.33.O.506.863 O.O.
1994 O.34.O.542.343 O.O.
1995 O.35.O.580.306 O.O.~
1996 O.36.O.620.927 O.O.
1997 O.37.O.664.392 O.O.
1998 O.38.O.710.899 O.O.,-
1999 O.39.O.760.662 O.O.
2000 O.40.O.813.907 O.O.
2001 O.41.O.870.881 O.O.
931.842
~,2002 O.42.O.O.O.
2003 O.43.O.997.07 O.O.
2004 O.44.O.1066.86 O.O.
2005 O.45.O.1141.54 O.O..-
2006 O.46.O.1221.45 O.O.
2007 O.47.O.1306.95 O.O.
2008 O.48.O.1398.44 O.O.
2009 O.49.O.1496.33 O.O.
2010 O.50.O.1601.07 O.O.
.....
-
-
L-16
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
SANCSA TCRED TOURIST TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX
1981 315.7 O.630.O.O.O.
1982 O.O.680.O.O.O.
1983 O.O.730.O.O.O.
1984 O.O.780.O.O.O.
f'"1985 O.O.830.O.O.O.
1986 O.O.880.O.O.O.
1987 O.O.930.O.O.O.
~1988 O. O.980.O.O.O.
I 1989 O.O.1030.O.O.O.
1990 O. O.1080.O. O.O.
1991 O.O.1130.O.O.O.
1992 O.O.1180.O.O.O.
1993 O. O.1230.O.O.O.
1994 O.O.1280.O. O.O.
1''''.,1995 O. O.1330.O.O.O.
1996 O.O.1380.O.O.O.
1997 O.O.1430.O.O.O.
1998 O.O.1480.O.O.O.I""'"1999 O.O.1530.O.O.O.
2000 O.O.1580.O.O.O.
2001 O. O.1630.O.O.O.
2002 O.O.1680.O.O. O.
2003 O.O.1730.O.O.O.
2004 O.O.1780.O.O.O.
2005 O. O.1830.O.O.O.
2006 O.O.1880.O.O.O.
2007 O.O.1930.O.O.O.
2008 O.O.1980.O.O.O.
2009 O.O.2030.O. O. O.
2010 O.O.2080.O.O.O.
r
L-17
~-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
~
TXRT UUS VAEX1 WEUS1 XXMX2 YR
~1981 O.0.076 1000.254.7 O.1981.
1982 O.0.097 1000.O.O.1982.
1983 O.0.107 1000.O.O.1983.
1984 O.0.092 O.O.O.1984.-,
1985 O.0.08 O.O.O.1985.
1986 O.0.07 O.O.O.1986.
1987 O.0.065 O.O.O.1987.-1988 O.0.06 O.O.O.1988.
1989 O.0.06 O.O.O.1989.
1990 O.0.06 O.O.O.1990.
1991 O.0.06 O.O.O.1991.-
1992 O.0.06 O.O.O.1992.
1993 O.0.06 O.O.O.1993.
1994 O.0.06 O.O.O.1994.
1995 O.0.06 O.O.O.1995.
1996 O.0.06 O.O.O.1996.
1997 O.0.06 O.O.O.1997.....,\
1998 O.0.06 O.O.O.1998.
1999 O.0.06 O.O.O.1999.
2000 O.0.06 O.O.O.2000.
2001 O.0.06 O.O.O.2001.
2002 O.0.06 O.O.O.2002.
2003 O.0.06 O.O.O.2003.
2004 O.0.06 O.O.O.2004.
2005 O.0.06 O.O.O.2005.
2006 O.0.06 O.O.O.2006.
2007 O.0.06 O.O.O.2007.-2008 O.0.06 O.O.O.2008.
2009 O.0.06 O.O.O.2009.
2010 O.0.06 O.O. O.2010.-
-
-
L-18
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
L.2 .Startup Values for 1980 and 1981.....
ADMSD 1980 86.558 86.49
AEX 1980 0.4 NA
AGI 1980 4500.NA
AHG 1980 1.NA
ATD 1980 600.NA
ATl 1980 3500.NA
ATI.TT 1980 10.NA
ATT 1980 320.NA,-BALCAP84 1980 O.O.
BALDF 1980 O.O.
BALGF 1980 1549.1 821.1
BALGFCP 1980 900.NA
BALGFP 1980 1549.1 821.1
BALPF 1980 483.2 1827.3
,~BAL99 1980 2032.3 2648.4
BIU 1980 31.9 34.9
BL 1980 33.NA
CEA9N 1980 0.034 NA
CECMN 1980 0.012 NA
CECNN 1980 0.072 NA
CED9N 1980 0.12 NA
CEFIN 1980 0.015 NA
CEGAN 1980 0.197 NA
CEGFN 1980 0.207 NA
CEM9N 1980-0.093 NA,-CEPUN 1980 0.018 NA
CEP9N 1980 0.021 NA
CES9N 1980 0.152 NA
CET9N 1980 0.06 NA
CNNPFl 1980 2.777 NA
CNNPFlO 1980 8.158 NA
CNNPF11 1980 7.036 NA
CNNPFl2 1980 5.893 NA
CNNPFl3 1980 4.956 NA
CNNPF14 1980 3.112 NA
CNNPFl5 1980 4.368 NA
CNNPF2 1980 9.098 NA
CNNPF3 1980 10.982 NA,....CNNPF4 1980 11.165 NA
CNNPF5 1980 11.911 NA
CNNPF6 1980 14.403 NA
!"""CNNPF7 1980 16.919 NA
CNNPF8 1980 15.081 NA
CNNPF9 1980 11.626 NA
CNNPM1 1980 2.922 NA"'-.CNNPM10 1980 10.431 NA
L-19
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
CNNPMll 1980 8.546 NA
CNNPM12 1980 7.427 NA
CNNPM13 1980 5.826 NA
CNNPM14 1980 3.742 NA
CNNPM15 1980 4.433 NA .-;
CNNPM2 1980 10.077 NA
CNNPM3 1980 11.548 NA
CNNPM4 1980 12.002 NA -,CNNPM5 1980 13.066 NA
CNNPM6 1980 13.719 NA
CNNPM7 1980 18.285 NA
CNNPM8 1980 17.566 NA ~
CNNPM9 1980 13.534 NA
COLA 1980 70.NA
DEBTP82 1980 O.O.-OF.RSVP 1980 O.O.
DPI 1980 4193.98 NA
DPIRES 1980 54.307 62.532 """\DPI8 1980 4512.8 NA
ELBD 1980 129.151.2
ELED 1980 360.8 383.2
ELEDCP 1980 141.7 110.5 -:
ELED1 1980 129.7 111.8
ELNED1 1980 422.4 553.7
ELPERS 1980 383.8 407.5 -,
EL99 1980 912.2 1088.1
EMAFISH 1980 0.221 NA
EMA9 1980 0.885 NA -EMCM 1980 4.383 NA
EMCN 1980 10.708 12 .5
EMCNRT 1980 O.O.
EMCNX 1980 O.O.-,
EMCN1 1980 10.708 12.5
EMDR 1980 23.98 26.2
EMDRNT 1980 22.08 NA
EMDTOUR 1980 1.9 NA
EMDW 1980 5.546 6.4
EMD9 1980 29.526 32.7
EMFI 1980 7.751 8.7
EMGA 1980 36.254 39.8
EMGF 1980 41.143 40.923
EMGL 1980 20.884 23.1 -EMGS 1980 15.37 16.7
EMMO 1980 2.66 2.7
EMM9 1980 14.205 13.-EMM91 1980 14.205 13.
EMPRO 1980 17 .044 17.235
EMPROFIS 1980 7.269 NA
EMPR01 1980 9.775 NA -
L-20
I~
r~r.,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
f"".MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
EKPU 1980 1.373 NA-EKRATE 1980 0.48 NAI
EKRATN1 1980 0.17 0.17
EMSB 1980 5.063 NA
r-EMSP 1980 84.25 NA
EKSTOUR 1980 2.02 NA
EMSUP 1980 67.073 NA
EKS8NT 1980 21.713 NA
EMS9 1980 29.796 NA
EMS91 1980 28.796 NA
EMTCU 1980 17.177 NA
r""EKTNT 1980 9.321 NA
EHTOUR 1980 4.92 NA
EHTTOUR 1980 1.NA
""""
EHT9 1980 11.421 NA
EHT91 1980 10.321 NA
EHX 1980 6.684 8.6
EK96 1980 187.851 200.935
EK97 1980 170.807 183.7
EK98 1980 194.13 207.023
EH99 1980 211.174 224.258,-EXANSAV 1980 O.NA
EXCAP 1980 399.923 688.018
EXCAPFR 1980 O.O.-EXCDS 1980 68.9 167.
EXCDSNT 1980 23.402 52.587
EXCDS4 1980 68.9 167.
EXCPS 1980 150.658 223.439
EXCPSFED 1980 43.7 107.5
EXCPSHY 1980 87.111 127.192
EXCPSM 1980 O.O.
EXCPSNH 1980 63.547 96.247
EXDFCON 1980 O.O.
EXDFWITH 1980 O.O.
r""EXDSS 1980 76.209 97.686
EXEDS 1980 474.3 592.
E:XEDS4 1980 474.3 592.
EXGF 1980 1414.36 3668.2
I~EXGFBH 1980 1172.79 4349.57
EXGFCHY 1980 81.703 147.779
EXGFCNH 1980 167.562 316.8
P'"EXGGS 1980 117.116.2
EXGGS4 1980 117.116.2
.EXHES 1980 .89.3 125.6
EXHES4 1980 89.3 125.6
I"""1980 71.996 153.333EXINREC
EXJUS 1980 87.6 106.3
EXJUS4 1980 87.6 106.3
EXLIK 1980 O.O.
L-21
, I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~I
May 1983
EXLIMOK 1980 O.O.
EXNOPS 1980 476.132 1605.7 -,
EXNRS 1980 80.6 103.3
EXNRS4 1980 80.6 103.3
EXOPS 1980 1206.6 1581.6 -EXPFCON 1980 344.8 1285.
EXPPS 1980 28.9 33.2
EXPPS4 1980 28.9 33.2 -EXPRCDS 1980 7.10.6
EXPREDS1 1980 13.14.9
EXPRGGS 1980 53.6 49.3
EXPRHES 1980 26.7 29.9 -EXPRJUS 1980 58.4 69.7
EXPRNRS 1980 54.69.
EXPRPPS 1980 17.7 20.2 ~
EXPRSSS 1980 36.6 42.7
EXPRTRS 1980 67.7 93.2
EXPRUA 1980 113.322 120.392
EXPR99 1980 448.022 519.892
EXSAVS 1980 O.NA
EXSSS 1980 134.7 167.4
EXSSS4 1980 134.7 167.4 -EXSUBS 1980 O.172.
EXTRNS 1980 O.O.
EXTRS 1980 125.4 169.8 -,
EXTRS4 1980 125.4 169.8
EXUA 1980 167.117.
EX99S 1980 1682.73 3187.3
FAGI 1980 4500.NA
FAG II 1980 3500.NA
GOBONDL 1980 827 .1 1091.02
GODT 1980 631.723 701.178
GR 1980 15000.NA
GTR 1980 14000.NA
1M.BAL 1980 O.NA !'J'I!I"
1M.BALRV 1980 O.NA
LPTB 1980 12332.13626.
LPTB1 1980 12332.13626.
HIG1N 1980 12.451 NA """',
M1GOUT 1980 -20.351 NA
M1LPCT 1980 1. 1.
NATPF1 1980 0.904 NA
NATPF10 1980 1.393 NA
NATPF11 1980 1.304 NA
NATPF12 1980 1.082 NA
NATPF13 1980 0.865 NA
NATPF14 1980 0.685 NA
NATPF15 1980 1.433 NA
NATPF2 1980 2.764 NA I'i!'ll
L-22
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
NATPF3 1980 3.391 NA
1""".NATPF4 1980 3.625 NA
NATPF5 1980 4.066 NA
NATPF6 1980 3.475 NA
NATPF7 1980 2.828 NA
NATPF8 1980 2.208 NA
NATPF9 1980 1.772 NA
NATPM1 1980 0.945 NA
NATPM10 1980 1.44 NA
NATPM11 1980 1.357 NA
NATPM12 1980 1.112 NA
NATPM13 1980 0.948 NA
NATPM14 1980 0.639 NA
NATPM15 1980 1.471 NA
NATPM2 1980 2.965 NA
NATPM3 1980 3.486 NA
NATPM4 1980 3.778 NA
NATPM5 1980 4.226 NA
NATPM6 1980 3.486 NA
NATPK7 1980 2.865 NA
NATPM8 1980 2.223 NA,-NATPK9 1980 1.802 NA
NCCAP 1980 278.350.
NCCI 1980 127.143.
f*-NCPI 1980 19.21.
P.DPINN 1980 11417.9 10000.
PDCON 1980 514.127 NA
PDEXOPS 1980 362.064 NA
PDRATIO 1980 1.296 1.266
PDRPI 1980 320.055 344.708
PDUSCPI 1980 247.272 .3
PI 1980 5090.2 NA
PIDIR 1980 541.387 661.376
PIOLI 1980 280.624 306.461
PIPROF 1980 25.25.
PIPR01 1980 180. 180.
PlRADJ 1980 318.813 348.493
PISSC 1980 R 267e.581 310.433,-PITRAN 1980 417.39 500.245
PITRAN1 1980 417.39 500.245
PI3 1980 5090.2 NA
PI8 1980 5409.02 NA
POP 1980 403.603 NA
POPC 1980 378.7 NA
POPGER 1980 12.NA
PO PM 1980 23.3 23.3
POPMIG 1980 -7.9 NA
POPNE 1980 70.855 NA
POPSKUL 1980 106.642 NA
L-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ,~
May 1983
PR.BALCP 1980 1239.14 1300.-PR.DPINN 1980 3233.7 4400.
PR.DPIUS 1980 3239.68 3235.03
PR.PI 1980 3956.11 NA
PR.PI3 1980 3956.11 NA
R.BALCAP 1980 500.550.
R.DPI 1980 1310.39 NA
R.DPI8N 1980 1410.01 NA .....
R.DPI8X 1980 O.NA
R.WR97 1980 7239.51 NA
RLMC 1980 267.6 331.9 -,RLOT 1980 46.9 52.3
RLPT1 1980 191.199.9
RLTCS 1980 O.NA
RLTCS4 1980 O.NA
RLTEB 1980 7.512 -85.415
RLTEB4 1980 7.512 -85.415
RLTEF4 1980 162.679 275.301 ""':\
RLTEO 1980 43.653 62.889
RLTE04 1980 43.653 62.889
RLTET 1980 15.253 16.622 -RLTET4 1980 15.253 16.622
RLTE99 1980 231.1 271.4
RLTE994 1980 231.1 271.4
RLTF 1980 52.5 71.1
RLTMA 1980 11.4 56.5
RLTMA4 1980 11.4 56.5
RLTMS 1980 20.202 50.887 -,RLTRS 1980 26.9 52.601
RLTRS4 1980 26.9 52.601
RLTT9 1980 18.598 61.812
RLTT94 1980 18.598 61.812 ~
RLTVS4 1980 2.522 1.093
RLT99 1980 296.8 436.7
RMIS 1980 22.1 22.1 I!!'lll
RMISRES 1980 18.034 17.942
ROFAS 1980 10.661 NA
ROFERS 1980 20.98 NA -ROFOS 1980 8.138 NA !
RSFDN 1980 223.534 200.687
RSFFS 1980 4.93 5.122
RSFS1 1980 11.993 12.015
RSGF 1980 2742.77 3936.83
RSGFBM 1980 2501.2 3718.2
RSIAS 1980 26.116 29.451
RTAS 1980 7.366 8.3
RTBS2 1980 10.NA
RTCIS 1980 4.283 1.7
RTCS1 1980 17.864 34.8
I"!"!:
L-24
.....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research--MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
RTIS 1980 100.479 O.
RTISC 1980 O.O.
RTISCAI 1980 0.44 NA
RTISCA2 1980 0.44 NA
RTISCP 1980 71.147 49.813
RTISLOS 1980 150. 150.
RTMF 1980 26.175 23.2
RTOTS 1980 16.9 21.7
RTPIF 1980 770.765 893.085
RTSS 1980 2.556 O.
RTVS 1980 12.418 11.8
R99S 1980 2971.69 4001.1
TPTV 1980 260.NA
VAEX 1980 1000.1000.
r""WEALTH 1980 4001.03 NA
WEUS 1980 234.9 254.7
WRA9 1980 18914.1 NA
WRCM 1980 34588.6 NA,-WRCN 1980 39907.NA
WRCNNP 1980 39907.NA
WRCNP 1980 O.O.,....WRDR 1980 13824.5 NA,
WRDW 1980 25669.7 NA
WRD9 1980 16049.4 NA
~WRFI 1980 18820.NA
WRGA 1980 24545.1 NA
WRGC 1980 21270.7 NA
WRGF 1980 17046.7 NA
WRGL 1980 22192.5 NA
WRGH 1980 13819.4 15220.8
WRGS 1980 27741.7 NA
Ii"""WRM91 1980 21833.1 NA
WRPU 1980 33253.4 NA
WRP9 1980 45591.5 NA
WRSB 1980 18904.2 NA
WRSNB 1980 16464.3 NA
WRS9 1980 16878.9 NA
WRT9 1980 27009.7 NA
WR98 1980 22047.NA
WSCN 1980 427.324 NA
WSCNP 1980 O.O.
WSGA 1980 889.859 NA
WSGC 1980 379.045 NA
WSGL 1980 463.469 NA
WSGH 1980 322.31 354.995
WSGS 1980 426.39 NA
WSGSFY 1980 398.858 NA
WS97 1980 3957.67 NA
1"""'.WS98 1980 4279.98 NA
L-25
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
XXA9 1980 75.1 77.6
XXCM 1980 204.5 NA .""""
XXCN 1980 120.7 141.
XXCN1 1980 120.7 141.
XXCN8 1980 89.338 NA ..,
XXDR 1980 190.5 206.3
XXDRNT 1980 219.932 NA
XXDW 1980 103.6 115.5 ~,
XXD9 1980 294.1 321.8
XXFI 1980 354.5 357.1
XXGA 1980 330.NA
XXGF 1980 500.NA ~..
XXM91 1980 240.NA
XXPU 1980 55.1 NA
XXP9 1980 600.NA """':XXSB 1980 53.9 NA
XXS8NT 1980 200.557 NA
XXS9 1980 282.6 NA ~XXTNT 1980 183.792 NA
XXT9 1980 225.2 NA
XXVHY 1980 91.595 NA
XXVNHY 1980 69.644 NA
XX98 1980 2500.NA
~
-
SOURCE:dset A83.2.
-
-
L-26
M.l
M.2
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX M
ISER MAP REGIONALIZATION MODEL:
INPUT VARIABLES
Exogenous and Policy Variables
Startup Values for 1980 and 1981
,1""'."1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
.-M.1.Exogenous and Policy Variables
1981 2.606 18.657 5.08 0.457 1.846 0.96
1982 2.205 21.361 6.089 0.436 1.528 0.818
1983 2.64 22.376 7.472 0.491 1.838 0.96
1984 2.847 22.73 6.73 0.486 1.838 0.964
1985 3.187 24.16 8.027 0.501 1.851 1.059
1986 3.81 25.242 8.474 0.512 1.862 1.174
1987 4.051 26.035 9.144 0.522 1.87 1.273,....1988 4.195 25.991 9.534 0.516 1.869 1.263
1989 4.338 25.941 10.012 0.511 1.868 1.229
1990 3.61 26.723 12.462 0.519 1.877 1.237
1991 3.418 26.792 10.206 0.516 1.875 1.24
"""1992 7 .175 28.368 12.737 0.536 1.895 1.255
1993 7.832 30.35 10.178 0.567 1.914 1.265
1994 5.24 31.68 11.237 0.585 1.925 1.272
f"""1995 5.804 31.715 10.057 0.58 1.925 1.277
1996 6.086 30.712 9.914 0.559 1.912 1.275
1997 6.225 30.024 10.05 0.542 1.904 1.276
1998 6.202 30.3 9.644 0.542 1.905 1.279
1999 6.127 30.486 9.517 0.541 1.904 1.282
2000 5.96 30.728 9.506 0.54 1.904 1.262
2001 5.633 30.971 9.525 0.54 1.904 1.219
r"'"'2002 5.524 31.265 9.527 0.541 1.906 1.2
2003 5.529 31.635 9.689 0.544 1.909 1.182
2004 5.536 32.04 9.703 0.546 1.912 1.164
2005 5.543 32.483 9.719 0.549 1.916 1.147
2006 5.551 32.955 9.735 0.553 1.92 1.084
2007 5.56 33.454 9.674 0.556 1.925 1.09
2008 5.57 33.984 9.666 0.561 1.93 1.096
2009 5.579 34.514 9.431 0.565 1.935 1.102
2010 5.59 35.091 9.451 0.57 1.941 1.109
B.09 B.11 B.12 B.14 B.15 B.16
r-1981 4.907 11.622 3.968 0.152 4.028 0.016
1982 5.62 11.755 3.94 0.158 3.527 0.017
1983 5.781 13.112 4.225 0.169 4.439 0.017
1984 5.791 13.584 4.316 0.277 4.3 0.017.-.
1985 6.128 14.265 4.808 0.32 4.163 0.018
1986 6.393 14.734 4.991 0.38 4.212 0.019
1987 6.627 15.371 4.651 0.329 4.554 0.019
1988 6.631 15.621 4.849 0.604 4.673 0.019
1989 6.634 15.785 5.367 0.602 4.371 0.019
1990 6.871 16.121 5.594 0.606 4.331 0.02
1991 6.911 16.223 5.704 0.605 4.345 0.02
1992 7.37 16.743 5.807 0.615 4.425 0.021
I!"!!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1993 7.955 17.212 5.457 0.627 4.496 0.021 ,....\
1994 8.345 17.558 5.368 0.635 4.548 0.021
1995 8.352 17.687 5.529 0.633 4.567 0.022
1996 8.077 17 .565 5.441 0.625 4.545 0.022
1997 7.894 17.227 5.391 0.618 4.539 0.022
1998 7.991 17.36 5.415 0.618 4.558 0.022
1999 8.06 17 .465 5.43 0.617 4.574 0.022
2000 8.156 17.591 5.453 0.617 4.591 0.022
2001 8.251 17.732 5.482 0.617 4.561 0.022
2002 8.361 17 .89 5.516 0.618 4.404 0.022
2003 8.493 18.072 5.56 0.619 4.432 0.022
2004 8.636 18.264 5.606 0.62 4.46 0.023
2005 8.79 18.467 5.659 0.622 4.49 0.023
2006 8.953 18.679 5.713 0.623 4.522 0.023
2007 9.126 18.899 5.771 0.625 4.555 0.023 --2008 9.308 19.128 5.832 0.627 4.589 0.024
2009 9.493 19.357 5.895 0.629 4.624 0.024
2010 9.69 19.599 5.961 0.632 4.661 0.024 -
8.17 8.18 B.21 B.24 8.25 8.26
1981 0.683 0.335 0.285 0.161 0.028 1.123
1982 0.77 0.348 '0.297 0.173 0.03 1.281
1983 0.893 0.365 0.318 0.177 0.031 1.252 """"1984 0.896 0.435 0.32 0.177 0.031 1.295
1985 0.84 0.551 0.335 0.183 0.032 1.355
1986 0.876 0.561 0.348 0.188 0.034 1.411
1987 .0.905 0.569 0.357 0.192 0.034 1.465
1988 0.906 0.502 0.359 0.192 0.035 1.507
1989 0.908 0.4 0.363 0.191 0.035 1.549
1990 0.938 0.409 0.373 0.195 0.036 1.603 -1991 0.942 0.411 0.374 0.195 0.036 1.646
1992 1.002 0.429 0.396 0.204 0.038 1.712
1993 1.069 0.445 0.415 0.213 0.039 1.783 .....
1994 1.113 0.457 0.428 0.218 0.04 1.845
1995 1.117 0.458 0.431 0.218 0.041 1.887
1996 1.082 0.449 0.421 0.212 0.04 1.915 -1997 1.06 0.445 0.416 0.209 -0.04 1.946
1998 1.07 0.447 0.418 0.209 0.04 1.992
1999 1.074 0.449 0.42 0.208 0.04 2.036
2000 1.082 0.451 0.423 0.208 0.04 2.081
_.
2001 1.092 0.455 0.426 0.209 0.04 2.127
2002 1.104 0.458 0.429 0.209 0.04 2.173
2003 1.119 0.463 0.434 0.211 0.041 2.221 .......
2004 1.135 0.468 0.44 0.212 0.041 2.269
2005 1.153.0.474 0.446 0.214 0.042 2.318
2006 1.172 0.48 0.452 0.216 0.043 2.368 -2007 1.192 0.487 0.46 0.218 0.043 2.417
-
M-2
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
2008 1.213 0.494 0.467 0.221 0.044 2.467
2009 1.234 0.5 0.474 0.223 0.045 2.517
2010 1.256 0.508 0.482 0.226 0.045 2.568
B.27 B.29 BETA B01 B02 B04,-1981 0.244 0.916 0.363 2.282 4.033 4.687
1982 0.2 0.86 0.366 1.833 4.328 5.595
1983 0.242 0.89 0.37 2.254 4.826 6.973
1984 0.242 0.888 0.378 2.462 5.227 6.249
1985 0.243 0.877 0.378 2.777 5.537 7.509
1986 0.244 0.887 0,379 3.38 5.747 7.932
1987 0.245 0.897 0.378 3.606 5.794 8.577
1988 0.245 0.894 0.38 3.751 5.839 8.988
1989 0.245 0.891 0.383 3.896 5.885 9.487
1990 0.246 0.899 0.385 3.153 5.935 11.918
1991 0.245 0.899 0.39 2.963 5.99 9.671
1992 0.248 0.918 0.39 6.683 6.047 12.157
1993 0.25 0.946 0.396 7.305 6.106 9.509
!"'"1994 0.252 0.963 0.401 4.691 6.21 10.516
1995 0.251 0.96 0.405 5.256 6.308 9.353
1996 0.25 0.942 0.411 5.562 6.399 9.273
1997 0.248 0.929 0.41 5.716 6.495 9.463
1998 0.248 0.931 0.412 5.692 6.6 9.058
1999 0.248 0.931 0.416 5.619 6.724 8.936
2000 0.248 0.932 0.42 5.452 6.83 8.928
2001 0.248 0.934 0.425 5.124 6.877 8.947
2002 0.248 0.937 0.43 5.012 6.924 8.948
2003 0.249 0.94 0.435 5.012 6.971 9.107
r-2004 0.249 0.944 0.44 5.012 7.021 9.117
2005 0.249 0.949 0.445 5.013 7.07 9.127
2006 0.25 0.954 0.451 5.013 7.119 9.137
2007 0.25 0.95,9 0.456 5.013 7.168 9.069
2008 0.251 0.965 0.462 5.013 7.219 9.053
2009 0.251 0.971 0.467 5.013 7.269 8.81
2010 0.252 0.977 0.473 5.014 7.322 8.821
B05 B06 B08 B09 B11 B12
1981 0.282 1.671 0.824 0.349 6.429 2.085
1982 0.225 1.327 0.668 0.35 5.929 1.818
1983 0.275 1.63 0.802 0.359 7.005 2.033
1984 0.275 1.63 0.803 0.369 7.343 2.102
1985 0.275 1.63 0.887 0.378 7.629 2.472
1986 0.275 1.63 0.994 0.387 7.76 2.556
1987 0.275 1.63 1.086 0.398 8.113 2.133
1988 0.275 1.63 1.073 0.41 8.235 2.307
r-
M-3,....
r
M-4
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
2004 0.493 2.936 0.009 0.147 0.178 0.094
2005 0.493 2.937 0.009 0.148 0.18 0.094
2006 0.493 2.937 0.009 0.15 0.181 0.094
2007 0.493 2.938 0.009 0.151 0.182 0.095
2008 0.494 2.938 0.009 0.153 0.183 0.096
2009 0.494 2.939 0.01 0.154 0.185 0.096
2010 0.494 2.94 0.01 0.155 0.186 0.096
B24 .B25 826 B27 B29 G.01
1981 0.079 0.01 0.374 0.226 0.732 3.293
1982 0.079 0.01 0.453 0.179 0.643 3.348
1983 0.079 0.01 0.373 0.22 0.668 3.348:--1984 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.669 3.354
1985 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.645 3.382
1986 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.646 3.405
~1987 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.647 3.419
1988 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.648 3.43
1989 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.649 3.441
r""1990 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.65 3.454
1991 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.651 3.464
1992 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.652 3.485
1993 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.653 3.493
1994 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.654 3,502
1995 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.655 3.52 .
1996 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.656 3.49
~1997 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.657 3.513
1998 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.658 3.512
1999 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.659 3.499
2000 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.66 3.487r-2001 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.661 3.479
2002 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.663 3.473
2003 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.664 3.468
2004 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.665 3.465
2005 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.666 3.463
2006 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.667 3.463
2007 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.668 3.463
2008 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.669 3.464
2009 0.079 0.014 0.375 0.22 0.67 3.465
2010 0.079 0.014 0.375 0.22 0.672 3.467
G.02 G.04 G.05 G.06 G.08 G.09
f1><\
1981 35.071 1.632 1.444 1.257 0.367 13.25
1982 36.632 1.777 1.556 1.332 0.396 13.841
1983 36.559 1.766 1.549 1.327 0.393 13.805
1984 36.682 1.775 1.556 1.332 0.395 13.846
M-5
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
1985 37.518 1.855 1.618 1.373 0.411 14.169
1986 38.189 1.919 1.667 1.406 0.424 14.427
1987 38.586 1.955 1.695 1.425 0.431 14.576
1988 38.865 1.98 1.714 1.438 0.436 14.678
1989 39.139 2.003 1.733 1.45 0.441 14.779
1990 39.479 2.034 1.757 1.466 0.447 14.905
1991 39.733 2.056 1.774 1.478 0.451 14.998
1992 40.356 2.115 1.82 1.508 0.463 15.236 ~,
1993 40.529 2.128 1.831 1.515 0.466 15.297
1994 40.755 2.147 1.846 1.525 0.47 15.378
1995 41.264 2.194 1.883 1.55 0.479 15.572
1996 40.249 2.088 1.805 1.496 0.458 15.162
1997 40.92 2.152 1.854 1.529 0.47 15.419
1998 40.802 2.136 1.843 1.521 0.467 15.364
1999 40.316 2.083 1.805 1.494 0.456 15.163 --.
2000 39.883 2.035 1.77 1.47 0.447 14.983
2001 39.547 1.998 1.743 1.452 0.439 14.842
2002 39.279 1.967 1.721 1.436 0.433 14.727 -2003 39.062 1.941 1.703 1.423 0.427 14.633
2004 38.895 1.92 1.689 1.413 0.423 14.558
2005 38.77 1.903 1.677 1.405 0.42 14.5 -,2006 38.677 1.89 1.669 1.398 0.417 14.455
2007 38.611 1.879 1.662 1.393 0.414 14.42
2008 38.57 1.871 1.657 1.389 0.413 14.395
2009 38.543 1.864 1.653 1.386 0.411 14.376 .1I!IOl
2010 38.534 1.859 1.651 1.384 0.41 14.363
""""'"G.11 G.12 G.14 G.15 G.16 G.17
1981 11.841 1.612 0.996 2.133 0.463 1.454
1982 12.782 1.762 1.076 2.236 0.499 1.58
1983 12.716 1.75 1.07 2.229 0.496 1.569
1984 12.776 1.758 1.076 2.236 0.499 1.576
1985 13.295 1.843 1.119 2.293 0.518 1.647 ~
1986 13.708 1.909 1.154 2.338 0.534 1.703
1987 13.945 1.947 1.174 2.364 0.543 1.734
1988 14.105 1.972 1.188 2.382 0.549 1.755 ""'\
1989 14.261 1.996 1.201 2.399 0.555 1.775
1990 14.461 2.028 1.218 2.421 0.562 1.801
1991 14.604 2.05 1.23 2.437 0.568 1.82
1992 14.986 2.111 1.263 2.479 0.582 1.871
1993 15.077 2.125 1.271 2.489 0.585 1.883
1994 15.202 2.144 1.281 2.503 0.59 1.899
1995 15.51 2.194 1.307 2.536 0.602 1.94 ,..,.~
1996 14.835 2.08 1.251 2.463 0.576 1.846
1997 15.247 2.147 1.286 2.508 0.592 1.901
1998 15.15 2.129 1.278 2.497 0.588 1.887
1999 14.815 2.072 1.25 2.461 0.575 1.839
~.
M-6
.....,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
r-.MAP Documentation
Kay 1983,-2000 14.515 2.021 1.225 2.428 0.564 1.796
2001 14.277 1.98 1.205 2.402 0.554 1.762
2002 14.083 1.946 1.189 2.381 0.547 1.734
2003 13.922 1.918 1.176 2.364 0.541 1.711
~2004 13.792 1.895 1.166 2.349 0.536 1.692
2005 13 .69 1.877 1.157 2.338 0.532 1.676
2006 13.608 1.861 1.151 2.33 0.529 1.664
,~2007 13.544 1.849 1.146 2.323 0.526 1.654
2008 13.496 1.84 1.142 2.317 0.524 1.646
2009 13.456 1.831 1.139 2.313 0.523 1.639
f"""2010 13.428 1.825 1.137 2.31 0.521 1.634
G.18 G.21 G.24 G.25 G.26 G.27
1981 1.054 0.419 1.673 0.323 1.008 0.637
1982 1.142 0.455 1.73 0.351 1.103 0.69
1983 1.136 0.452 1.727 0.348 1.095 0.686
1984 1.141 0.454 1.731 0.35 1.1 0.689
1985 1.191 0.474 1.762 0.365 1.154 0.718
r-1986 1.23 0.49 1.786 0.377 1.196 0.742
1987 1.252 0.499 1.8 0.384 1.22 0.755
1988 1.267 0.505 1.81 0.389 1.236 0.764
1989 1.281 0.511 1.82 0.393 1.251 0.772
1990 1.3 0.518 1.832 0.399 1.271 0.784
1991 1.314 0.524 1.841 0.403 1.285 0.792
1992 1.35 0.538 1.864 0.414 1.324 0.813
1993 1.358 0.542 1.87 0.417 1.332 0.818
1994 1.37 0.546 1.878 0.42 1.344 0.825
1995 1.399 0.558 1.897 0.429 1.375 0.842
1996 1.334 0.532 1.86 0.409 1.303 0.804
1997 1.373 0.548 L884 0.421 1.346 0.827
1998 1.364 0.544 1.88 0.418 1.334 0.822
1999 1.332 0.531 1.862 0.408 1.298 0.803
2000 1.303 0.519 1.846 0.399 1.265 0.787
2001 1.28 0.51 1.834 0.391 1.239 0.773
2002 1.261 0.502 1.824 0.385 1.218 0.762
1""":2003 1.245 0.496 1.816 0.38 1.2 0.753
I 2004 1.233 0.491 1.81 0.376 1.185 0.746
2005 1.223 0.487 1.805 0.373 1.173 0.74
2006 1.215 0.484 1.802 0.37 1.163 0.736
2007 1.208 0.481 1.799 0.368 1.156 0.732
2008 1.203 0.479 1.797 0.367 1.149 0.73
2009 1.199 0.477 1.796 0.365 1.144 0.727
2010 1.196 0.476 1.796 0.364 1.14 0.726
K-7
!""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation """'"May 1983,
G.29 GOl G02 G04 G05 G06
1981 1.258 2.866 21.439 0.259 0,417 0,557
1982 1.323 2.878 21.602 0.263 0.424 0.56
1983 1.319 2.881 21.651 0,265 0.426 0,561 ""'"1984 1.324 2.885 21.7 0.266 0,428 0,562
1985 1.359 2.888 21.749 0.267 0.43 0.563
1986 1.387 2.892 21.798 0,268 0.432 0,564 ~,
1987 1,404 2.895 21.848 0.27 0,434 0,565
1988 1.415 2.899 21.898 0,271 0,436 0.566
1989 1.426 2.903 21.948 0.272 0.438 0.567
1990 1.44 2.906 21.998 0.273 0.441 0.568
1991 1.45 2.91 22.049 0.275 0.443 0.569
1992 1.476 2.914 22.1 0.276 0.445 0.57
1993 1.483 2.917 22.151 0.277 0.447 0.571
1994 1.492 2.921 22.203 0.279 0.449 0.572
1995 1.513 2.925 22.254 0.28 0.451 0.573
1996 1.468 2.928 22.306 0.281 0.454 0.574 -,
1997 1.496 2.932 22.358 0.283 0.456 0.575
1998 1.49 2.936 22.411 0.284 0.458 0.576
1999 1.468 2.94 22.464 0.285 0.46 0.577
2000 1.449 2.944 22.517 0.287 0.462 0.578
2001 1.433 2.947 22.57 0.288 0.465 0.579
2002 1.421 2.951 22.623 0.289 0.467 0.58
2003 1.41 2.955 22.677 0.291 0.469 0.581
2004 1.402 2.959 22.731 0.292 0.471 0.582
2005 1.396 2.963 22.786 0.293 0.474 0.583
2006 1.391 2.967 22.84 0.295 0.476 0.584 -2007 1.387 2.971 22.895 0.296 0.478 0.585
2008 1.384 2.975 22.95 0.298 0.481 0.587
2009 1.382 2.979 23.006 0.299 0.483 0.588
2010 1.381 2.983 23.061 0.3 0.485 0.589 """J,
G08 G09 Gll G12 G14 G15 ~.
1981 0.089 7.855 3.048 0.158 0.259 1.171
1982 0.089 7.893 3.088 0.16 0.263 1.176
1983 0.09 7.905 3.1 0.16 0.265 1.177
1984 0.09 7.917 3.112 0.161 0.266 1.178
1985 0.09 7.928 3.124 0.161 0.267 1.18
1986 0.09 7.94 3.136 0.162 0.268 1.181
1987 0.09 7.952 3.149 0.162 0.27 1.183
1988 0.091 7.964 3.161 0.163 0.271 1.184
1989 0.091 7.976 3.173 0.163 0.272 1.186 "",*",
1990 0.091 7.988 3.186 0.164 0.273 1.187
1991 0.091 8.3.198 0.165 0.275 1.189
1992 0.091 8.012 3.211 0.165 0.276 1.19 ~.1993 0.091 8.024 3.223 0.166 0.277 1.192
M-8
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1994 0.092 8.036 3.236 0.166 0.279 1.193
1995 0.092 8.048 3.249 0.167 0.28 1.195
1996 0.092 8.061 3.262 0.167 0.281 1.196
1997 0.092 8.073 3.274 0.168"0.283 1.198
1998 0.092 8.086 3.287 0.168 0.284 1.199
1999 0.093 8.098 3.3 0.169 0.285 1.201
2000 0.093 8.111 3.313 0.17 0.287 1.202
I~2001 0.093 8.123 3.327 0.17 0.288 1.204
2002 0.093 8.136 3.34 0.171 0.289 1.205
2003 0.093 8.149 3.353 0.171 0.291 1.207
r'"2004 0.094 8.162 3.366 0.172 0.292 1.209
2005 0.094 8.175 3.38 0.172 0.293 1.21
2006 0.094 8.188 3.393 0.173 0.295 1.212
2007 0.094 8.201 3.407 0.174 0.296 1.213
2008 0.094 8.214 3.42 0.174 0.298 1.215
2009 0.095 8.227 3.434 0.175 0.299 1.217
2010 0.095 8.24 3.448 0.175 0.3 1.218
G16 G17 G18 G21 G24 G25
1981 0.129 0.242 0.216 0.081 1.178 0.061
1982 0.131 0.244 0.219 0.082 1.184 0.062
1983 0.131 0.244 0.22 0.082 1.185 0.062
1984 0.131 0.245 0.221 0.083 1.187 0.062
1985 0.132 0.245 0.222 0.083 1.189 0.063
1986 0.132 0.246 0.223 0.083 1.19 0.063
f"'"1987 0.133 0.246 0.224 0.084 1.192 0.063
1988 0.133 0.247 0.225 0.084 1.194 0.063
1989 0.133 0.247 0.225 0.084 1.196 0.063
1990 0.134 0.248 0.226 0.085 1.197 0.063
1991 0.134 0.248 0.227 0.085 1.199 0.064
1992 0.135 0.249 0.228 0.085 1.201 0.064
1993 0.135 0.249 0.229 0.086 1.203 0.064
1994 0.135 0.25 0.23 0.086 1.204 0.064
1995 0.136 0.25 0.231 0.087 1.206 0.064
1996 0.136 0.251 0.232 0.087 "1.208 0.064
1997 0.137 0.251 0.233 0.087 1.21 0.065
1998 0.137 0.252 0.234 0.088 1.211 0.065
1999 0.137 0.252 0.235 0.088 1.213 0.065
2000 0.138 0.253 0.236 0.088 1.215 0.065
("'"2001 0.138 0.253 0.237 0.089 1.217 0.065
2002 0.139 0.254 0.238 0.089 1.219 0.066
2003 0.139 0.254 0.239 0.09 1.221 0.066
2004 0.14 0.255 0.24 0.09 1.223 0.066
2005 0.14 0.255 0.241 0.09 1.224 0.066
2006 0.14 0.256 0.242 0.091 1.226 0.066
,.,..,2007 0.141 0.256 0.243 0.091 1.228 0.067
M-9
Ill!!!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~,
May 1983
2008 0.141 0.257 0.244 0.091 1.23 0.067 -,
2009 0.142 0.258 0.245 0.092 1.232 0.067
2010 0.142 0.258 0.246 0.092 1.234 0.067
.,
G26 G27 G29 HH POP
1981 0.086 0.146 0.666 138.788 419.589 -,
1982 0.087 0.148 0.671 145.453 437.175
1983 0.087 0.149 0.672 153.141 457.836
1984 0.087 0.15 0.673 159.154 473.752 ~1985 0.087 0.15 0.674 165.301 490.154
1986 0.088 0.151 0.676 171.204 505.917
1987 0.088 0.152 0.677 175.647 517.508
1988 0.088 0.152 0.678 179.336 526.964 ~
1989 0.088 0.153 0.68 183.162 536.859
1990 0.089 0.154 0.681 188.149 550.151
1991 0.089 0.154 0.682 191.007 557.251 -1992 0.089 0.155 0.684 199.022 579.38
1993 0.089 0.156 0.685 204.818 594.991
1994 0.089 0.157 0.686 209.452 607.199
1995 0.09 0.157 0.688 213.596 617.971 -.
1996 0.09 0.158 0.689 215.035 620.838
1997 0.09 0.159 0.691 217.518 626.791
1998 0.09 0.159 0.692 219.915 632.498 -"1999 0.091 0.16 0.693 221.834 636.808
2000 0.091 0.161 0.695 223.854 641.432
2001 0.091 0.162 0.696 225.958 646.314 -2002 0.091 0.162 0.698 228.285 651.863
2003 0.092 0.163 0.699 230.976 658.498
2004 0.092 0.164 0.7 233.864 665.723
2005 0.092 0.165 0.702 236.948 673.537
2006 0.092 0.165 0.703 240.217 681.909
2007 0.093 0.166 0.705 243.684 690.874
2008 0.093 0.167 0.706 247.373 700.507
""""2009 0.093 0.168 0.708 251.154 710.42
2010 0.093 0.168 0.,709 255.211 721.159
~\
-
H-10
"""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
F"'"MAP Documentation
May 1983
""..M.2.Startup Value for 1980 and 1981
M.01 1980 O.NA
M.02 1980 0.001 NA
M.03 1980 O.NA
M.04 1980 O.NA
M.OS 1980 O.NA
M.06 1980 O.NA
M.07 1980 O.NA
I""'-M.08 1980 O.NA
M.09 1980 O.NA
M.10 1980 O.NA
M.ll 1980 O.NAF"M.12 1980 O.NA
M.13 1980 O.NA
M.14 1980 O.NA
l~U!''i M.1S 1980 O.NA
M.16 1980 O.NA
M.17 1980 O.NA
!""'"M.18 1980 O.NA
M.19 1980 O.NA
M.20 1980 O.NA
M.21 1980 O.NA
f"'"M.22 1980 O.NA
M.23 1980 O.NA
M.24 1980 O.NA
r-M.2S 1980 O.NA
M.26 1980 O.NA
M.27 1980 O.NA
M.28 1980 O.NA
M.29 1980 O.NA
PCEN.06 1980 1.1.
SOURCE:dset A83.CD.
r M-ll
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX N
ISER MAP MODEL OUTPUT FOR HARZA-EBASCO
SUSITNA JOINT VENTURE
N.l.2~Annual Decline in Oil Price
N.2.l~Annual Decline in Oil Price
N.3.Constant Petroleum Price
N.4.2~Annual Increase in oil Price
N.S.Sherman Clark Associates--No Supply Disruption Case
N.6.Sherman Clark Associates--Base Case
N.7.Alaska Department of Revenue--Average Price
N.S.Alaska Department of Revenue--SOth Percentile
N.9.Alaska Department of Revenue--30th Percentile
N.lO.Data Resources Institute--June Oil Price Forecast
N.11.Selected Hi storical Data Series... .
N-3
N-9
N-IS
N-21
N-27
N-33
N-37
N-4S
N-Sl
N-S7
N-63
,~
r
,....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
H8;y 1983
APPENDIX N
ISER HAP MODEL OUTPUT FOR HARZA-EBASCO
SUSITNA JOINT VENTURE
The first six tables in this appendix present selected output
from six simulations using the MAP state and regionalization
models.The final table presents historical data for the same
variables for purposes of comparison.Each table is divided into
six parts as follows:
Part Content
A
B
C
o
E
F
State petroleum revenue assumptions
Selected state expenditure variables
Model output used as input to end use (RED)model:employment
Hodel output used as input to end use (RED)model:population
Model output used as input to end use (RED)model:households
Model output used as input to end use (RED)model:households
Each simulation uses the same models,parameters,input
variables,and economic and fiscal scenarios except as indicated
below.The models,parameters,and input variables are presented
elsewhere in this technical documentation report.The economic and
fiscal scenarios are also described in a separate appendix in the
technical documentation report.
The economic scenario is a "most likely"case.
The fiscal scenario assumes that state government will spend
according to the guidelines of the constitutionally defined spending
limit when revenues and the general fund balance allow it.When the
availability of funds precludes this level of spending,cuts occur
in the capital and operating budgets,while the capital budget falls
from 33 percent to 2S percent of the total.The state subsidy part
of the capital budget is eliminated and replaced with regular
capital spending.No change occurs in the portion of capital
expendi tures funded by bonds.Contract ion of the state operating
budget automatically contracts state-local transfers for education
and other programs.If spending permanently falls below the limit,
the Permanent Fund Dividend program is eliminated and all of the
Fund earnings are transferred to the General Fund.The state
personal income tax is reimposed using the schedule in place during
the 1970s.All of these fiscal adjustments occur automatically with
the exception of three,as follows,and which are determined by the
user:
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1.Setting the level of state subsidy programs (EXSUBS1).
2.Determining the existence of Permanent Fund Dividend program
(EXPFDIST)
3.Determining the existence of reinvestment of Permanent Fund
earnings (EXPFBAK)
The values for these variables are chosen by rerunning each
simulation while monitoring the general fund balance.When the
balance falls near zero,the Permanent Fund distribution program is
eliminated,and two years later all Permanent Fund earnings begin to
be transferred to the General Fund.If th i s occurs after 1988,
state subsidies are automatically eliminated.If it occurs earlier,
the user must override the schedule of subsidy payments set through
1987.
Differences among simulations occur in three components of
petroleum revenues--royalties,severance taxes,and corporate income
taxes.Royalties and severance taxes in each simulation come from
Harza-Ebasco.These series are based upon petroleum price
assumptions run through the state of Alaska petroleum revenue impact
model to calculate revenues.Corporate income taxes are assumed in
each simulation to be the same ratio of a base case as severance
taxes.The base case is the level of revenues assumed to be
consistent with the state Department of Revenue 50 percent petroleum
revenue projections for royalties and severance taxes.Petroleum
revenues are extrapolated beyond 1999 using the growth rate over the
interval 1996 to 1999.The petroleum revenues are consistent with a
6.5 percent annual inflation rate which,consequently,is used in
all six simulations.
In sum,six input variables differ among these simulations as
follows:
-
-
~I
RPRY
RPTS
RTCSPX
EXSUBS1
EXPFDIST
EXPFBAK
Petroleum royalties
Petroleum severance taxes
Petroleum corporate income taxes
Level of state subsidies through 1987
Policy switch for Permanent Fund Distribution Program
Policy switch to direct Permanent Fund earnings into
General Fund
N-2
~,
-
N-3
N-4
N-5
N-6 -
iF"',
N-7
OI!II'!!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation .....
May 1983
TABLE N.1.SIMULATION CASE:2%ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part F
State Households by Age of Head
(Thousands)-
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older ~
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.300 19.085 26.763 93.488 25.964
1986 171.199 19.448 27.534 97.161 27.056
1987 175.635 19.528 27.909 100.075 28.124
1988 179.312 19.492 28.091 102.530 29.200 ~,
1989 183.119 19.511 28.325 104.963 30.320
1990 188.723 19.861 29.042 108.269 31.551
1991 191.839 19.776 29.096 110.241 32.725 ~
1992 197.699 20.192 29.898 113.566 34.043
1993 200.720 20.114 29.940 115.379 35.287
1994 202.255 19.833 29.630 116.288 36.504
1995 203.668 19.595 29.351 116.982 37.740
1996 205.549 19.485 29.256 117.797 39.011 -1997 207.685 19.445 29.277 118.660 40.302
1998 209.658 19.394 29.296 119.377 41.592
1999 211.733 19.373 29.378 12 0 .098 42.884 -,2000 213.957 19.382 29.529 120.868 44.178
2001 216.190 19.394 29.705 121.628 45.464
2002 218.546 19.424 29.931 122.449 46.742 MIlJ.
2003 221.254 19.504 30.261 12 3.468 48.020
2004 224.151 19.602 30.644 124.615 49.290
2005 227.237 19.716 31.073 12 5 .898 50.549
2006 230.513 19.844 31.545 127.324 51.799
2007 233.991 19.988 32.059 128.904 53.039
2008 237.695 20.149 32.618 130.656 54.273
2009 241.494 20.308 33.183 132.509 55.494
2010 245.569 20.491 33.804 134.561 56.714 ,-
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.8 AND HER.8
VARIABLES:HH,HH24,HH25.29, HH30.54,AND HH55
M!'m
-
N-8
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.2.SIMULATION CASE:1%ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
Total to
~Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent,...
Taxes Federal FundI
Shared Contri-
Royalties bution)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1456.661 1473.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
....1984 1527.914 1552.734 346.183 153.200 3615.097 3224.352
1985 1748.822 1752.615 410.334 158.000 4099.461 3654.833
1986 1908.500 1884.047 440.518 163.456 4424.508 3940.386
I"""1987 2081.990 2037.005 481.110 169.101 4797.047 4269.586
1988 2138.123 2080.186 501.167 174.940 4922.770 4381.148
1989 2282.825 1881.240 527.134 180.981 4901.328 4323.332
1990 2383.280 1953.354 569.156 187.231 5123.082 4519.746
1991 2255.336 1781.427 641.188 193.697 4902.672 4331.078
1992 2209.249 1686.935 694.875 200.385 4823.453 4263.137
1993 2221.211 1661.915 758.885 207.305 4882.316 4318.762
1994 2195.779 1608.338 800.248 214.464 4852.828 4295.383
1995 2039.784 1437.589 834.241 221.870 4568.484 4049.788
f""".1996 1919.686 1281.909 874.694 229.532 4341.820 3852.899
1997 1956.014 1315.485 939.782 237.458 4485.738 3987.485
~1998 1957.312 1285.495 1004.238 245.658 4530.699 4031.871
1999 1942.932 1221.899 1080.757 254.141 4538.727 4043.244
2000 1950.703 1202.349 1159.592 262.917 4615.559 4117.883
2001 1958.505 1183.111 1244.177 271.996 4698.789 4198.910
2002 1966.339 1164.181 1334.932 281.389 4788.840 4286.754
2003 1974.203 1145.554 1432.307 291.106 4886.168 4381.867-2004 1982.100 1127.225 1536.784 301.158 4991.266 4484.738I
2005 1990.027 1109.189 1648.882 311.558 5104.656 4595.898
2006 1997.987 1091.442 1769.159 322.317 5226.902 4715.902....
2007 2005.978 1073.979 1898.209 333.447 5358.613 4845.367
2008 2014.001 1056.796 2036.671 344.962 5500.426 4984.922
2009 2022.056 1039.887 2185.234 356.874 5653.051 5135.285.-2010 2030.144 1023.249 2344.634 369.198 5817.223 5297.184
-SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES:RPRY,RPTS,RTCSPX,RPPS,RP9S,AND RP9SGF
~
N-9
, I
I'IM!I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ,!IIIiI!l'1\
May 1983
TABLE N.2.SIMULATION CASE:1%ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE ~
Part B
State Government Expenditures
(Million $)....
Unre-
stricted Percent of ~
General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expend i-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings
"'"tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 486.305 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.729 780.395 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3701.695 1258.922 224.643 0.000 300.000 0.500
1986 4042.114 177 8.094 256.433 0.000 200.000 0.500
1987 4403.215 2367.781 291.610 0.000 100.000 0.500
1988 4771.078 2812.434 330.515 0.000 698.100 0.500
1989 5143.027 2924.793 371.941 0.000 752.445 0.500
1990 5558.977 2889.391 417.063 0.000 813.728 0.500
1991 5970.949 2327.652 465.532 0.000 875.152 0.500
1992 6491.305 1193.375 514.795 0.000 0.000 0.500
1993 6511.301 111.223 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500
1994 5721.824 111.238 0.000 332.896 0.000 0.500
1995 6560.609 111.258 0.000 669.139 0.000 0.000
1996 6495.719 111.281 0.000 734.092 0.000 0.000
1997 6762.500 111.305 0.000 791.315 0.000 0.000 ~
1998 6944.129 111.328 0.000 851.276 0.000 0.000
1999 7097.348 111.352 0.000 915.767 0.000 0.000
2000 7324.008 111.375 0.000 987.045 0.000 0.000
2001 7566.648 111.398 0.000 1064.419 0.000 0.000
2002 7825.238 111.414 0.000 1148.947 0.000 0.000
2003 8104.781 111.434 0.000 1243.115 0.000 0.000
2004 8408.453 111.457 0.000 1346.282 0.000 0.000
2005 8731.746 111.484 0.000 1457.654 0.000 0.000
2006 9077 .820 111.512 0.000 1578.339 0.000 0.000
2007 9447.700 111.543 0.000 1708.880 0.000 0.000
2008 9843.290 111.574 0.000 1849.992 0.000 0.000 -2009 10265.220 111.609 0.000 2000.555 0.000 0.000
2010 10713.710 111.648 0.000 2163.069 0.000 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES:EXGFBM t BALGF t EXTRNS t RTIS t EXSUBS t AND EXPFBAK -
N-10 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.2.SIMULATION CASE:1%ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part C
Employment
I""'"(Thousands)
r State
Non-Ag State Railbelt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Totalr
I 1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 12 0 .533 33.500
1983 202.237 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 127.853 34.406
1985 216.850 258.648 169.404 133.832 35.571
""'"1986 226.523 268.967 175.694 139.018 36.676
1987 233.000 275.888 179.283 141.831 37.452
1988 236.541 279.675 181.005 143.331 37.674
1989 239.357 282.707 183.082 14'5.209 37.873
'"""'1990 246.490 290.318 187.470 148.909 38.561
1991 246.567 290.416 189.192 150.089 39.103
1992 265.311 310.417 200.146 159.497 40.649
1993 268.406 313.743 204.195 162.421 41.774
1994 262.866 307.867 200.869 159.636 41.233
1995 262.307 307.313 200.363 159.186 41..177
1996 263.551 308.689 201.195 159.886 41.309
1997 264.260 309.512 202.107 160.700 41.407
1998 264.253 309.585 202.871 161.372 41.499
1999 265.075 310.565 204.117 162.452 41.665
2000 266.762 312.417 205.960 163.986 41.974
2001 268.643 314.423 208.031 165.687 42.344
2002 270.939 316.873 210.397 167.636 42.761
2003 274.223 3.20.377 213.196 169.977 43.219
2004 277.853 324.251 216.381 172 .611 43.770
2005 281.885 328.554 219.881 175.499 44.383
2006 286.239 333.203 223.687 178.628 45.059
2007 290.920 338.202 227.747 181.955 45.792
2008 295.971 343.597 232.069 185.497 46.572
2009 300.951 348.917 236.512 189.109 47.403
2010 306.468 354.812 241.205 192.952 48.253
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES:EM97 ,EM99,M.IR,M.AG,AND M.FG
N-ll
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.2.SIMULATION CASE:1%ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE Il!IPIJ!!
Part D
Po u1ation
Thousands),1!!IlIllfi'!
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks ~
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.202 259.679 70.523
1985 490.387 341.852 269.490 72 .362
1986 507.001 353.254 278.931 74.324
1987 520.062 361.484 285.269 76.216
1988 529.741 367.035 289.935 77 .101
1989 538.874 374.203 296.125 78.078
1990 551.884 384.894 304.800 80.094
1991 558.777 389.515 .308.323 81.193
1992 582.500 406.078 322.779 83.299 -1993 596.580 415.584 329.939 85.646
1994 598.194 418.257 331.482 86.775
1995 601.879 419.075 332.220 86.856
1996 607.461 422.741 335.228 87.513
1997 612.371 427.119 338.860 88.260
1998 616.430 430.720 341.870 88.850 IIJIIIIM
1999 620.907 434.747 345.240 89.507
2000 626.068 439.370 349.031 90.339
2001 631.297 444.218 352.964 91.254
2002 636.942 449.336 357.150 92.186
2003 643.662 455.024 361.879 93.145 !IIl!"V
2004 650.945 461.126 366.925 94.202
2005 658.790 467.659 372.318 95.341
2006 667.209 474.695 378.109 96.587 ~
2007 676.239 482.093 384.187 97.906
2008 685.950 490.020 390.694 99.326
2009 695.937 498.127 397.316 100.812 I!IIIIIlIIII
2010 706.745 506.906 404.508 102.398
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES:POP,P.IR,P .AG,AND P.FG
-
N-12
Institute of Social
r and Economic Research
I MAP DocumentationI
,
May 1983
r-
TABLE N.2.SIMULATION CASE:1%ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part E
Households
~(Thousands)!
Greater Greater
~State Rai1be1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159.154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 165.382 120.223 95.231 24.992
1986 171.578 124.649 98.876 25.773
1987 176.530 U 7 .907 101.387 26.520
1988 180.300 130.285 103.364 26.921
..-1989 183.867 133.118 105.788 27.330
1990 188.759 137.238 109.117 28.121
~1991 191.547 139.127 110.559 28.568
1992 200.112 145.392 116.001 29.391
1993 205.388 149.033 118.746 30.287
1994 206.389 150.276 119.521 30.755
1995 208.085 150.884 120.036 30.848
1996 210.424 152.487 121.343 31.144
1997 212.532 154.344 122.873 31.471
1998 214.347 155.887 124.152 31.7 35
1999 216.298 157.583 125.561 32.022
2000 218.479 159.490 127.117 32.373,....
2001 220.679 161.474 128.719 32.755
2002 223.014 163.551 130.411 33.141
2003 225.709 165.831 132.296 33.535
2004 228.591 168.249 134.286 33.963
2005 231.660 170.816 136.397 34.419
2006 234.919 173.558 138.645 34.914
2007 238.380 176.419 140.987 35.432
2008 242.069 179.464 143.478 35.986
2009 245.849 182.565 146.002 36.563
2010 249.905 185.906 148.730 37.175
fW'1'Il
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES:HH.HH.IR,HH.AG.AND HH.FG
N-13
N-14
-
i I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MA.P Documentation
May 1983 -TABLE N.3.SIMULATION CASE:CONSTANT OIL PRICE
Part B
State Government Expenditures
(Million $).....
Unre-
stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expend i-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings
tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.500
1983 3287.977 486.305 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.729 819.676 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3700.677 1396.813 224.877 0.000 350.000 0.500
1986 4035.211 2086.863 257.244 0.000 350.000 0.500 -1987 4383.441 2938.980 293.385 0.000 350.000 0.500
1988 4743.129 3734.266 333.700 0.000 695.550 0.500
1989 5121.121 4273.090 376.963 0.000 750.604 0.500
1990 5539.363 4770.816 424.476 0.000 811.880 0.500
1991 5954.242 4815.613 475.896 0.000 873.306 0.500
1992 6464.086 4385.613 528.408 0.000 950.450 0.500
1993 7019.668 3572.234 583.079 0.000 0.000 0.500
1994 7606.453 2206.754 640.765 0.000 0.000 0.500
1995 7541.895 636.641 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500
1996 6122.703 636.652 0.000 390.049 0.000 0.500
1997 7630.305 636.668 0.000 788.411 0.000 0.000
1998 7880.047 636.691 0.000 868.410 0.000 0.000
1999 8081.688 636.715 0.000 933.966 0.000 0.000
2000 8367.254 636.734 0.000 1004.314 0.000 0.000
2001 8673.625 636.750 0.000 1081.762 0.000 0.000
2002 9000.560 636.773 0.000 1166.823 0.000 0.000
2003 9352.800 636.797 0.000 1261.456 0.000 0.000
""""2004 9734.010 636.820 0.000 1365.280 0.000 0.000
2005 10140.160 636.848 0.000 1477 .538 0.000 0.000
2006 10574.820 636.879 0.000 1599.287 0.000 0.000 ~,
2007 11039.400 636.910 0.000 1731.013 0.000 0.000
2008 11536.360 636.945 0.000 1873.440 0.000 0.000
2009 12066.980 636.980 0.000 2025.513 0.000 0.000 .-2010 12632.210 637.020 0.000 2189.766 0.000 0.000
~
SOURCE:MA.P MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES:EXGFBM,BALGF,EXTRNS,RTIS,EXSUBS,AND EXPFBAK
~
N-16
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.3.SIMULATION CASE:CONSTANT OIL PRICE
Part C
Employment
r~(Thousands)
State
Non-Ag State Railbelt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 12 0 .533 33.500
1983 202.237 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 12 7 .853 34.406
"'"",1985 216.620 2 58.404 169.203 133.673 35.529
1986 225.545 267.927 174.844 138.344 36.499
!"""1987 230.898 2 73.650 177.466 140.389 37.077
1988 234.771 277 .790 179.516 142.141 37.374
1989 238.522 281.818 182.436 144.688 37.748
1990 245.841 289.626 186.982 148.519 38.463
1991 246.073 289.889 188.828 149.800 39.028
1992 263.196 308.161 198.029 157.787 40.242
1993 268.383 313.719 203.845 162.129 41.715
1994 272.866 318.534 208.577 165.704 42.874
1995 276.687 322.653 211.840 168.320 43.520
1996 272.778 318.532 209.147 166.393 42.753
1997 273.648 319.526 209.268 166.418 42.850
1998 274.322 320.326 210.300 167.229 43.070
1999 274.073 320.164 210.715 167.639 43.076
2000 274.573 320.751 211.686 168.481 43.205
2001 275.662 321.912 213.174 169.719 43.455
2002 277.559 323.937 215.256 171.445 43.811
2003 280.542 327.121 217.838 173.615 44.224
2004 283.966 330.776 220.879 176.136 44.743-2005 287.865 334.939 224.292 178.956 45.336
2006 292.116 339.479 228.030 182.034 45.997
2007 296.713 344.389 232.041 185.324 46.717
2008 301.699 349.716 236.327 188.840 47.487
2009 306.647 355.004 240.758 192.444 48.314
2010 312.153 360.890 245.456 196.294 49.162
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES:EM97,EM99,M.IR,M.AG,AND M.FG
N-17
i!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
TABLE N.3.SIMULATION CASE:CONSTANT OIL PRICE -Part D
Population
(Thousands)~
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.202 259.679 70.523
1985 490.154 341.619 269.306 72.314
1986 505.917 352.216 278.106 74.110 -1987 517.508 359.121 283.387 75.734
1988 526.964 364.702 288.067 76.636
1989 536.859 372.735 294.944 77.792
1990 550.151 383.665 303.819 79.846 -
1991 557.251 388.448 307.476 80.973
1992 579.380 402.759 320.096 82.663
1993 594.991 413.770 328.480 85.290
1994 607.199 425.280 336.991 88.289
1995 617 .971 432.178 342.692 89.487
1996 620.838 434.399 344.854 89.545
1997 626.791 437.694 347.334 90.360
1998 632.498 441.996 350.765 91.231
1999 636.808 445.820 353.951 91.869
2000 641.432 450.069 357.444 92.626
~
2001 646.314 454.679 361.185 93.495
2002 651.863 459.752 365.340 94.413
2003 658.498 465.391 370.032 95.360
2004 665.723 471.472 375.065 96.408
2005 673.537 478.003 380.461 97.542
2006 681.909 485.027 386.246 98.782
_.
2007 690.874 492.404 392.314 100.091
2008 700.507 500.301 398.803 101.499
2009 710.420 508.379 405.405 102.974 ~2010 721.159 517.133 412.583 104.551
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES:POP,P.IR.P.AG,AND P.FG
-
N-18
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.3.SIMULATION CASE:CONSTANT OIL PRICE
Part E
Households
r-(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
If"'"1984 159.154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 165.301 UO .142 95.167 24.975
!"'"1986 171.204 124.285 98.588 25.697
1987 175.647 127.076 100.729 26.348
1988 179.336 129.457 102.703 26.753
1989 183.162 132.587 105.361 27.226
1990 188.149 136.790 108.760 28.030
1991 191.007 138.734 110.248 28.486
i"""1992 199.022 144.227 115.063 29.165
1993 204.818 148.390 118.231 30.159
1994 209.452 152.747 121.449 31.298
r-1995 213.596 155.506 123.716 31.790
1996 215.035 156.599 124.733 31.865
1997 217.518 158.133 U5.900 32.233
f""'.1998 219.915 159.951 127.347 32.604
1999 221.834 161.592 128.704 32.889
2000 223.854 163.382 130.166 33.216-2001 225.958 165.297 131.714 33.583
2002 228.285 167.375 133.407 33.968
2003 230.976 169.654 135.293 34.361
2004 233.864 172.083 137.293 34.790
2005 236.948 174.668 139.419 35.248
2006 240.217 177 .425 141.681 35.744
2007 243.684 180.298 144.035 36.263
2008 247.373 183.352 146.535 36.817
""..,2009 2 51.154 186.461 149.068 37.393
2010 255.211 189.812 151.806 38.006
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES:HH,HH.IR.HH.AG.AND HH.FG
,....,
N-19
!I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.3.SIMULATION CASE:CONSTANT OIL PRICE ~\
Part F
State Households by Age of Head
(Thousands)~
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816 ~
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.301 19.086 26.764 93.488 25.964
.-
1986 171.204 19.449 27.535 97.163 27.056
1987 175.647 19.530 27.912 100.081 28.124
1988 179.336 19.496 28.097 102.543 29.201
1989 183.162 19.517 28.335 104.987 30.322 -
1990 188.149 19.762 28.891 107.967 31.529
1991 191.007 19.647 28.889 109.780 32.691 I""\!!
1992 199.022 20.436 30.266 114.227 34.093
1993 204.818 20.784 31.008 117.579 35.447
1994 209.452 20.931 31.431 120.295 36.795 '"'"1995 213 .596 21.015 31.737 122.686 38.159
1996 215.035 20.685 31.354 123.546 39.449
1997 217.518 20.596 31.317 124.802 40.802
1998 219.915 20.529 31.307 125.910 42.169
1999 221.834 20.412 31.218 126.675 43.528
2000 223.854 20.340 31.207 127.413 44.894 -
2001 225.958 20.298 31.262 128.136 46.263
2002 228.285 20.301 31.410 128.940 47.634
2003 230.976 20.360 31.681 129.926 49.009
2004 233.864 20.442 32.017 131.025 50.380
2005 236.948 20.543 32.411 132.251 51.743
2006 240.217 20.658 32.853 133.608 53.098
2007 243.684 20.788 33.342 135.110 54.443
2008 247.373 20.935 33.880 136.777 55.781 ,,,,,,*
2009 251.154 21.079 34.427 138.542 57.105
2010 255.211 21.249 35.032 140.506 58.425
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES:HH,HH24,HH25.29,HH30.54,AND HH55
N-20
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.4.SIMUlATION CASE:2%ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
F'"Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri-
Royalties bution)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1456.661 1473.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
1984 1587.146 1612.763 359.566 153.200 3747.741 3342.188
1985 1894.108 1896.679 444.063 158.000 4422.539 3941.589
1986 2147.052 2116.177 494.793 163.456 4949.465 4405.703
1987 2425.629 2368.573 559.422 169.101 5550.566 4937.195
1988 2579.915 2504.169 603.315 174.940 5890.691 5238.621
1989 2852.770 2343.591 656.687 180.981 6063.176 5342.695
""'"1990 3079.382 2514.983 732.801 187.231 6544.453 5767.090
1991 3000.070 2361.607 850.013 193.697 6436.410 5678.633
1992 3015.941 2296.923 946.139 200.385 6491.395 5729.406
1993 3109.054 2322.544 1060.550 '207.305 6732.453 5946.938
1994 3162.103 2312.373 1150.549 214.464 6873.488 6074.461
1995 3008.396 2119.852 1230.163 221.870 6615.277 5854.426
1996 2904.606 1941.895 1325.028 229.532 6437.059 5701.906
1997 3036.613 2046.663 1462.135 237.458 6819.867 6051.461
1998 3116.226 2054.096 1604.674 245.658 7058.648 6270.090
1999 3168.862 2004.037 1772.551 254.141 7238.590 6436.621
2000 3260.760 2024.078 1952.100 262.917 7539.852 6714.660
2001 3355.323 2044.319 2149.835 271.996 7862.469 7013.387
2002 3452.628 2064.763 2367.602 281.389 8208.379 7334.719
2003 3552.755 2085.411 2607.426 291.106 8579.695 7680.754
2004 3655.786 2106.265 2871.543 301.158 8978.750 8053.801
2005 3761.805 2127.328 3162.413 311.558 9408.100 8456.395
2006 3870.898 2148.602 3482.748 322.317 9870.560 8891.336
2007 3983.154 2170.088 3835.532 333.447 10369.210 9361.680
2008 4098.664 2191.790 4224.047 344.962 10907.460 9870.790
2009 4217.523 2213.708 4651.918 356.874 11489.020 10422.390
I"""2010 4339.832.2235.845 5123.133 369.198 12118.000 11020.540
I~SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES:RPRY,RPTS,RTCSPX,RPPS,RP9S,AND RP9SGF
N-21
!I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE N.4.SIMULATION CASE:2%ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE 1l'JIfItt,
Part B
State Government Exyenditures
(Million $
""'lI
Unre-
stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent ~
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Programs Earnings
tures Tax Reinvested Jl!lJ!\!!I!I
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 486.305 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.729 898.230 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3701.146 1674.754 225.346 0.000 350.000 0.500
1986 4036.879 2701.742 258.895 0.000 350.000 0.500
1987 4387.133 4056.852 297.021 0.000 350.000 0.500
1988 4749.832 5529.086 340.265 0.000 695.573 0.500
1989 5131.844 6915.379 387.400 0.000 750.650 0.500 ""'l!
1990 5555.461 8492 .555 440.024 0.000 811.970 0.500
1991 5977.328 9780.330 497.850 0.000 873.491 0.500
1992 6494.707 10784.920 557.492 0.000 950.701 0.500
1993 7044.500 11658.910 620.167 0.000 1029.354 0.500
1994 7584.113 12281.360 686.937 0.000 1105.293 0.500
1995 8184.426 12227.780 757.520 0.000 1189.849 0.500
1996 8843.730 11458.130 829.643 0.000 1283.385 0.500
1997 9561.760 10363.960 903.970 0.000 0.000 0.500
8703.914 983.408 -1998 10380.540 0.000 0.000 0.500
1999 11248.540 6333.844 1067.576 0.000 0.000 0.500
2000 12178.230 3241.766 1156.379 0.000 0.000 0.500
2001 9260.960 3241.781 1250.503 0.000 0.000 0.500
2002 9708.750 3241.793 1350.233 0.000 0.000 0.500
2003 10192.130 3241.801 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500
2004 14677.310 41.734 0.000 759.029 0.000 0.500
2005 14269.330 41.762 0.000 1527.563 0.000 0.000
2006 15006.750 41.793 0.000 1678.949 0.000 0.000
2007 15754.660 41.824 0.000 1809.837 0.000 0.000
2008 16563.450 41.863 0.000 1952.014 0.000 0.000
2009 17441.480 41.902 0.000 2106.625 0.000 0.000 -2010 18384.040 41.945 0.000 2273.823 0.000 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES:EXGFBM,BALGF,EXTRNS,RTIS,EXSUBS,AND EXPFBAK
~
N-22
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.4.SIMULATION CASE:2%ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE
Part C-Employment
(Thousands)
State
Non-Ag State Railbe1t Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 120.533 33.500
1983 202.237 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 12 7.853 34.406
1985 216.622 258.407 169.205 133.675 35.530
1986 225.557 267.939 174.854 138.352 36.501
1987 230.928 273.682 177 .491 140.410 37.082
1988 234.830 277.853 179.565 142.181 37.383
1989 238.625 281.927 182.520 144.756 37.764
1990 246.003 289.800 187.116 148.628 38.488
1991 246.315 290.147 189.025 149.960 39.065
1992 263.530 308.517 198.300 158.008 40.292
1993 267.011 312.255 202.293 160.872 41.421
1994 269.457 314.897 204.926 162.730 42.196
1995 274.952 320.801 209.620 166.496 43.124
1996 281.686 328.039 214.693 170.584 44.109
1997 289.380 336.319 221.540 176.170 45.370
1998 296.386 343.884 228.173 181.547 46.626
1999 302.670 350.701 233.611 185.968 47.643
2000 308.867 357.377 238.937 190.276 48.661
I!"'"2001 304.579 352.793 237.340 189.402 47.939
2002 305 .•188 353.444 237.826 189.790 48.035
2003 308.315 356.786 239.679 191.200 48.479
2004 315.847 364.839 245.102 195.323 49.780
2005 315.169 364.115 245.595 195.942 49.653
.2006 317.479 366.584 247.142 197.140 50.002
2007 319.340 368.575 248.958 198.665 50.293
2008 322.811 372 .287 252.127 201.294 50.833
2009 326.371 376.095 255.510 204.058 51.452
2010 331.099 381.154 259.656 207.472 52.183
r-.SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES:EM97,EM99,M.IR,M.AG,AND M.FG
N-23
N-24
-
Institute of Social
1"""and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.4.SIMULATION CASE:2%ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE
Part E
Households
(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
r"""1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159.154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 165.302 UO~143 95.168 24.975
-1986 171.208 124.289 98.592 25.698
1987 175.658 U 7 .087 100.737 26.350
1988 179.361 129.478 102.721 26.757
\~1989 183.206 132.625 105.393 27.232
1990 188.221 136.851 108.810 28.040
1991 191.115 138.825 110.323 28.502
1992 199.176 144.356 115.168 29.188
1993 204.402 147.719 117.685 30.034
1994 208.104 150.998 120.018 30.980
f"'"1995 212.509 154.072 122.545 31.527
1996 217.611 157.814 125.561 32.253
1997 223.239 162.746 U 9.565 33.181
1998 228.940 167.571 133.472 34.099
1999 234.434 171.932 136.999 34.933
2000 239.844 176.267 140.485 35.783
2001 241.594 178.463 142.488 35.976
2002 244.295 180.373 144.005 36.368
2003 247.799 182.704 145.807 36.897
2004 252.919 186.363 148.577 37.786
2005 255.467 188.880 150.731 38.149
2006 258.673 -191.089 152.463 38.625
2007 261.660 193.507 154.443 39.063
2008 265.145 196.423 156.836 39.587
I"'"2009 268.681 199.351 159.221 40.130
2010 272.625 202.640 161.915 40.725
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES:HH,HH.IR,HH.AG,AND HH.FG
N-25
N-26 -
Institute of Social
~.and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5.SIMULATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK
ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
","",Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri--Royalties bution)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.899 142.700 3960.199 3570.549-1983 1456.661 1473.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
1984·1450.305 1474.080 328.647 153.200 3441.298 3069.956
1985 1555.117 1560.529 365.362 158.000 3668.700 3272.498
1986 1724.811 1705.298 398.724 163.456 4020.278 3582.078
1987 1896.215 1857.760 438.776 169.101 4389.691 3908.677
1988 1997.731 1647.607 396.949 174.940 4245.582 3739.060
1989 2251.456 1855.795 520.004 180.981 4837.387 4267.234
1990 2480.380 2031.695 591.983 187.231 5321.348 4693.734
r 1991 2352.500 1857.126 668.435 193.697 5102.781 4506.898
1992 2530.291 1929.692 794.871 200.385 5487.250 4846.672
1993 2657.006 1986.190 906.959 207.305 5790.461 5117.957
1994 2742.898 2006.949 998.581 214.464 5996.891 5302.664
I~1995 2651.116 1868.193 1084.124 221.870 5860.301 5188.770
1996 2599.817 1737.659 1185.670 229.532 5788.676 5129.719
1997 2755.836 1856.672 1326.406 237.458 6213.367 5515.156
1998 2865.556 1887.844 1474.798 245.658 6511.852 5785.961
1999 2950.992 1865.044 1649.613 254.141 6758.785 6011.285
2000 3077.885 1909.805 1841.891 262.917 7132.496 6353.023
2001 3210.235 1955.641 2056.580 271.996 7535.449 6722.641
2002 3348.276 2002.576 2296.294 281.389 7970.531 ·7122.961-2003 3492.252 2050.638 2563.949 291.106 8440.941 7557.125
2004 3642.420 2099.854 2862.802 301.158 8950.230 8028.625
2005 3799.044 2150.251 3196.489 311.558 9502.340 8541.328,-
2006 3962.404 2201.857 3569.072 322.317 10101.640 9099.540
2007 4132.781 2254.702 3985.082 333.447 10753.010 9708.060
2008 4310.492 2308.815 4449.578 344.962 11461.840 10372.220
I"""2009 4495.844 2364.227 4968.219 356.874 12234.160 11097.950
I-
2010 4689.164 2420.969 5547.316 369.198 13076.640 11891.850
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.12 AND HER.12
VARIABLES:RPRY,RPTS,RTCSPX,RPPS,RP9S,AND RP9SGF
N-27
N-28
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5.SIMULATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK
ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
Part C
Employment
(Thousands)
State
Non-Ag State Railbe1t Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 120.533 33.500
1983 202.237 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
r".1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 127.853 34.406
,1985 216.612 258.396 169.197 133.668 35.528
1986 225.515 267.895 174.818 138.324 36.494
1987 230.833 273.581 177.412 140.345 37.067
1988 234.657 277.669 179.422 142.065 37.357
1989 240.213 283.619 184.211 146.124 38.088
1990 249.654 293.689 190.883 151.685 39.198
1991 247.908 291.844 191.360 151.958 39.402
1992 264.012 309.031 199.404 158.995 40.409
1993 266.941 312.180 202.842 161.351 41.492
1994 267.220 312 .511 203.630 161.669 41.961
1995 268.534 313.954 204.668 162.466 42.202
1996 270.783 316.404 206.258 163.772 42.486
1997 272.935 318.765 208.212 165.401 42.811
1998 274.346 320.353 210.041 166.916 43.125
1999 276.144 322.374 212.025 168.580 43.445
2000 278.729 325.186 214.541 170.645 43.897
2001 281.498 328.141 217.283 172.875 44.408
2002 284.643 331.499 220.293 175.333 44.960
2003 288.727 335.859 223.703 178.156 45.546
2004 293.137 340.569 227.487 181.265 46.222
2005 297.941 345.701 231.584 184.625 46.959
f"""2006 303.062 351.172 235.985 188.226 47.759
2007 308.504 356.989 240.639 192.025 48.614
2008 314.317 363.203 245.561 196.044 49.517
2009 320.082 369.368 250.621 200.146 50.475r-2010 326.440 376.169 255.974 204.512 51.462
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.12 AND HER.12
VARIABLES:EM97, EM99,M.IR,M.AG,AND M.FG
r-'
N-29
I I
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -.,
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5.SIMULATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK -ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
PART D
Population
(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks ."
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.202 259.679 70.523
1985 490.146 341.613 269.300 72.313
.....
1986 505.884 352.187 278.082 74.105
1987 517.431 359.054 283.333 75.723
1988 526.823 364.583 287.969 76.615
1989 538.532 375.007 296.794 78.213 """
1990 554.634 389.026 308.196 80.831
1991 560.786 393.296 311.585 81.712 ~
1992 581.846 405.991 322.865 83.127
1993 594.848 413.788 328.521 85.268
1994 602.027 420.130 332.694 87.436
1995 608.810 423.460 335.464 87.997
1996 616.422 428.574 339.629 88.945
1997 623.782 434.617 344.561 90.057 ~
1998 630.352 440.001 348.981 91.021
1999 636.928 445.519 353.531 91.988
2000 644.111 451.561 358.441 93.120 ~
I
2001 651.362 457.835 363.501 94.335
2002 658.994 464.362 368.801 95.561
2003 667.660 471.437 374.626 96.811
2004 676.878 478.925 380.769 .98.156
2005 686.663 486.851 387.267 99.584 -2006 697.022 495.287 394.168 101.119
2007 707.990 504.091 401.364 102.727
2008 719.644 513.431 408.995 104.436 l'i!I'\
2009 731.592 522.970 416.755 106.216
2010 744.418 533.218 425.115 108.104
'"'"'l.
I
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.12 AND HER.12
VARIABLES:POP,P.IR,P.AG,AND P.FG ....,
N-30 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5.SIMULATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK
ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
PART E
r-HouseholdsI
(Thousands)
,."..Greater Greater
State Rai1be1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
r-1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159.154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 165.299 120.140 95.165 24.974
1986 171.192 124.275 98.580 25.695
1987 175.620 127.053 100.709 26.344-1988 179.287 129.415 102.669 26.746
1989 183.738 133.365 105.994 27.371
1990 189.696 138.640 110.267 28.373-1991 192.234 140.401 111.662 28.739
1992 199.886 145.348 116.024 29.324
1993 204.788 148.405 118.253 30.152
1994 207.695 150.964 119.963 31.002
1995 210.461 152.463 121.197 31.267
1996 213.508 154.590 122.921 31.669
1997 216.470 157.052 124.921 32.131
1998 219.161 159.242 126.710 32.532
1999 221.854 161.483 128.549 32.934
I'!'"'2000 224.751 163.913 130.515 33.398
2001 227.670 166.423 132.532 33.891
2002 230.716 169.023 134.636 34.388
2003 234.112 171.820 136.928 34.892
2004 237.695 174.758 139.329 35.429
2005 241.468 177.849 141.853 35.996
2006 245.436 181.121 144.520 36.601
2007 249.609 184.516 147.285 37.231
I"""'2008 254.014 188.100 150.203 37.896
2009 258.519 191.748 153.162 38.586
2010 263.323 195.652 156.336 39.316
r""
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.12 AND HER.12
VARIABLES:HH,HH.IR,HH.AG,AND HH.FG
i"'""
N-31
N-32 ...
Institute of Soc ia 1
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.6.SIMULATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
!"""Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri-
Royalties bution)
!"""
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1456.661 1473.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
1984 1450.305 1474.080 328.647 153.200 3441.298 3069.956
1985 1555.117 1560.529 365.362 158.000 3668.700 3272.498
1986 1724.811 1705.298 398.723 163.456 4020.277 3582.077
1987 1896.215 1857.760 438.775 169.101 4389.691 3908.677
1988 1997.731 1647.607 396.949 174.940 4245.582 3739.060
1989 3724.894 3051.093 854.933 180.981 7841.047 6902.535
1990 3918.895 3192.306 930.155 187.231 8258.645 72 71.402
1991 3842.630 3017.983 1086.262 193.697 8171.598 7203.184
1992 3892.345 2959.623 1219.116 200.385 8303.473 7322.383
1993 4038.582 3014.198 1376.381 207.305 8669.465 7651.566
1994 4143.422 3027.331 1506.285 214.464 894 5 •4 92 7881.137
1995 3971.011 2797.890 1623.633 221.870 8649.398 7647.895
1996 3869.246 2588.296 1766.092 229.532 8489.160 7512.848
1997 4080.758 2753.181 1966.871 237.458 9075.270 8045.824
1998 4223.734 2788.598 2178.473 245.658 9474.460 8409.027
1999 4330.508 2745.177 2428.082 254.141 9796.900 8704.523
2000 4495.066 2800.082 2700.508 262.917 10298.57Q 9164.800
2001 4665.879 2856.084 3003.500 271.996 10838.450 9661.730
2002 4843.180 2913.207 3340.488 281.389 11420.260 10198.960
2003 5027.219 2971.473 3715.285 291.106 12048.080 10780.520
2004 5218.254 3030.903 4132.133 301.158 1272 6 .450 11410.880
2005 5416.547 3091.523 4595.750 311.558 13460.370 12094.980
!""'"2006 5622.375 3153.354 5111.387 322.317 14255.430 12838.340
2007 5836.023 3216.423 5684.879 333.447 15117.770 13647.010
2008 6057.793 3280.753 6322.711 344.962 16054.210 14527.770
2009 6287.988 3346.369 7032.109 356.874 17072.340 15488.090
2010 6526.930 3413.298 7821.105 369.198 18180.530 16536.290
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.11 AND HER.11
VARIABLES:RPRY t RpTS t RTCSpX t RppS t Rp 9S t AND Rp 9SGF
N-33
'!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research I""'!.
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.6.SIMULATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE
Part B
State Government Expenditures
(Million $)Il!Il!!!l
Unre-
stricted Percent of -General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expend i-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings
tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 478.004 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500 -1984 3389.729 616.992 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3699.507 700.539 223.721 0.000 350.000 0.500
1986 4031.094 821.113 253.168 0.000 350.000 0.500
1987 4375.941 987.922 286.008 0.000 350.000 0.500
1988 4731.574 699.973 322.441 0.000 695.501 0.500
1989 5118.008 3223.754 361.817 0.000 0.000 0.500 ~,
1990 5573.352 5963.813 423.582 0.000 813.366 0.500
1991 5984.609 8552.969 490.596 0.000 871.614 0.500
1992 6504.379 11037.870 559.899 0.000 947.635 0.500
1993 7054.742 13639.220 633.095 0.000 1024.663 0.500
1994 7596.676 16246.970 711.518 0.000 1099.088 0.500
1995 8200.223 18343.450 794.921 0.000 1182.099 0.500
1996 8863.949 19932.590 880.251 0.000 1274.257 0.500
1997 9568.500 21608.150 968.438 0.000 1372.886 0.500
1998 10320.270 23168.750 1063.337 0.000 1477 .449 0.500
1999 11127.700 24487.140 1164.454 0.000 1590.320 0.500
2000 11994.410 25658.150 1271.653 0.000 1711.744 0.500
2001 12924.230 26652.990 1385.910 0.000 1841.364 0.500
2002 13926.490 27433.730 1507.635 0.000 1980.824 0.500
2003 15012.480 27954.660 1637.259 0.000 2132.305 0.500
2004 16168.650 28187.950 1775.238 0.000 2295.271 0.500
2005 17406.510 28093.130 1922.051 0.000 2470.945 0.500
~
2006 18744.470 27615.590 2078.203 0.000 2660.411 0.500
2007 20239.340 26645.790 2244.230 0.000 0.000 0.500
2008 21964.710 25020.710 2420.691 0.000 0.000 0.500
2009 23797.580 22676.660 2608.180 0.000 0.000 0.500
2010 25753.130 19514.110 2807.320 0.000 0.000 0.500
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.11 AND HER.11
VARIABLES:EXGFBM,BALGF,EXTRNS,RTIS,EXSUBS,AND EXPFBAK
~
N-34
N-35
N-36
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-.TABLE N.6.SIMULATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE
Part E
Households-(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511.....1984 159.154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 165.299 120.140 95.165 24.974
1986 171.192 124.275 98.580 25.695
1987 175.620 127.053 100.709 26.344
1988 179.287 129.415 102.669 26.746
1989 183.738 133.365 105.994 27.371
I"""1990 188.714 137.654 109.495 28.159
1991 190.726 138.734 110.308 28.426-1992 198.345 143.918 114.875 29.043
1993 203.202 147.016 117.181 29.835
1994 206.579 150.066 119.332 30.734
1995 210.698 152.940 121.703 31.236
1996 215.598 156.545 124.615 31.930
1997 220.461 160.521 127.841 32.680.....1998 225.079 164.142 130.763 33.379
1999 229.805 167.898 133.801 34.098
2000 234.591 171.7 56 136.904 34.853
2001 239.308 175.628 140.005 35.623
2002 244.105 179.558 143.167 36.391
2003 249.225 183.670 146.510 37.160
2004 254.504 187.910 149.952 37.959
2005 259.952 192.291 153.508 38.783
2006 265.581 196.846 157.202 39.644
2007 272.433 202.577 161.814 40.763
2008 280.065 208.937 166.946 41.991,....2009 287.289 214.744 171.647 43.096
I
176.452 44.2212010294.669 220.672
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.1i AND HER.i1
VARIABLES:HH,HH.IR,HH.AG,AND HH.FG
N-37
i I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -,
May 1983
TABLE N.6.S IMUIATION CASE:SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE
Part F
State Households by Age of Head
(Thousands)'"'"
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54 ~1
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816 ,~;
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.299 19.085 26.763 93.487 25.964
1986 171.192 19.447 27.532 97.157 27.056
1987 175.620 19.526 27.905 100.067 28.123
1988 179.287 19.488 28.085 102.516 29.199
1989 183.738 19.617 28.486 105.290 30.345
1990 188.714 19.848 29.029 108.285 31.552
1991 190.726 19.581 28.797 109.666 32.682
1992 198.345 20.314 30.077 113.884 34.070
1993 203.202 20.523 30.587 116.705 35.386
1994 206.579 20.495 30.713 118.690 36.681
1995 210.698 20.624 31.064 120.975 38.036 IOI!!I
1996 215.598 20.890 31.636 123.621 39.451
1997 220.461 21.143 32.203 126.226 40.889 -1998 225.079 21.350 32.709 128.679 42.341
1999 229.805 21.572 33.251 131.164 43.818
2000 234.591 21.799 33.814 133.663 45.316 -
2001 239.308 22.008 34.362 136.112 46.827
2002 244.105 22.225 34.935 138.590 48.355
2003 249.225 22.483 35.596 141.239 49.907 -
2004 254.504 22.751 36.295 143.981 51.477
2005 259.952 23.030 37.030 146.828 53.064
2006 265.581 23.318 37.803 149.792 54.668
2007 272.433 23.768 38.886 153.449 56.330
2008 280.065 24.292 40.140 157.598 58.035
2009 287.289 24.711 41.239 161.601 59.738
2010 294.669 25.122 42.342 165.740 61.466 -SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.11 AND HER.11
VARIABLES:HH,HH24,HH25.29 t HH30.54,AND HH55
N-38
Institute of Social
F"'"and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.7.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri-
Royalties bution)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550-1983 1456.660 1473.510 233.970 148.600 3361.839 2985.399
1984 1185.480 1205.680 268.807 153.200 2848.233 2543.097
1985 1233.320 1241.430 290.652 158.000 2953.094 2637.341
1986 1342.340 1333.120 311.703 163.456 3178.609 2836.027
1987 1444.950 1422.340 335.936 169.101 3400.170 3031.971
1988 1554.410 1520.010 366.208 174.940 3643.925 3248.233-1989 1709.830 1416.400 396.883 180.981 3733.246 3298.500
1990 1844.030 1518.280 442.387 187.231 4021.992 3553.469
1991 1806.010 1431.390 515.200 193.697 3977.323 3518.064
1992 1833.740 1402.980 577.910 200.385 4047.026 3580.589
r""1993 1906.680 1427.870 652.012 207.305 4226.871 3741.950
1994 1943.950 1424.860 708.956 214.464 4326.230 3831.743
1995 1863.280 1313.270 762.098 221.870 4195.516 3720.946
1996 1809.710 U08.220 824.414 229.532 4107.875 3646.448
1997 1901.360 1278.510 913.367 237.458 4367.691 3883.102
1998 1961.900 1288.600 1006.664 245.658 4540.820 4040.845
r-'1999 2008.140 1263.500 1117.553 254.141 4682.332 4170.547
2000 2079.028 1282.453 U36.847 262.917 4901.242 4371.484
2001 2152.418 1301.690 1368.875 271.996 5135.977 4587.621
2002 2228.398 1321.216 1514.999 281.389 5388.000 4820.398
~2003 2307.061 1341.034 1676.718 291.106 5658.918 5071.402
2004 2388.501 1361.150 1855.701 301.158 5950.508 5342.379
2005 2472.815 1381.568 205-3.791 311.558 6264.727 5635.270
r 2006 2560.106 1402.292 2273.026 322.317 6603.734 5952.207
2007 2650.479 1423.326 2515.663 333.447 6969.910 6295.539
2008 2744.041 1444.677 2784.202 344.962 7365.875 6667.863
2009 2840.906 1466.347 3081.404 356.874 7794.527 7072 .051
2010 2941.191 1488.343 3410.333 369.198 '8259.063 7511.262
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES:RPRY,RPTS,RTCSPX,RPPS,RP9S,AND RP9SGF
N-39
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES:EXGFBM,BALGF,EXTRNS,RTIS,EXSUBS,AND EXPFBAK
N-40
....
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES:EM97,EM99,M.IR,M.AG,AND M.FG
N-41
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.7.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part D
Population -(thousands)
Greater Greater
State Rai1be1t Anchorage Fairbanks
-1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.202 259.679 70.523
1985 486.247 339.161 267.509 71.653 -
1986 499.139 346.968 274.012 72.956
1987 508.393 352.211 277.965 74.246
1988 516.386 356.157 281.192 74.965 """I
1989 523.703 362.726 286.856 75.871
1990 535.300 372.777 294.962 77.815
1991 539.628 375.651 297.106 78.546 .....
1992 556.930 386.495 306.965 79.530
1993 565.539 391.334 310.414 80.921
1994 569.694 396.034 313.463 82.571
1995 574.869 399.548 316.596 82.953
1996 581.568 404.406 320.652 83.754
1997 589.003 410.623 325.755 84.868
1998 595.751 416.065 330.211 85.854
1999 602.662 421.770 334.902 86.869
2000 609.944 427.836 339.822 88.015
2001 617.193 434.069 344.842 89.227
2002 624.765 440.506 350.063 90.443 -
2003 633.332 447.462 355.785 91.678
2004 642.431 454.815 361.811 93.004
2005 652.063 462.582 368.173 94.409 ,~
2006 662.219 470.822 374.911 95.912
2007 672 .932 479.393 381.913 97.480
2008 684.279 488.460 389.318 99.142
2009 695.865 497.685 396.820 100.865
2010 708.243 507.558 404.874 102.685
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES:POP,P.IR.P.AG,AND P.FG
-
-N-42
Institute of Social-and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
~
TABLE N.7.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part E
Households.....(thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159.154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 163.950 119.247 94.516 24.731
1986 168.855 122.412 97.134 25.279
1987 172.483 124.601 98.794 25.807
~1988 175.656 126.407 100.257 26.150
1989 178.581 128.991 102.464 26.527
1990 182.967 132.857 105.569 27.288
1991 184.851 134.103 106.505 27.598
1992 191.181 138.340 110.323 28.017
1993 194.539 140.310 111.744 28.567
1994 196.363 142.239 113.020 29.219
1995 198.528 143.731 114.328 29.402
1996 201.210 145.719 115.978 29.741
1997 204.142 148.201 118.006 30.195-1998 206.839 150.374 119.777 30.597
1999 209.590 152.643 121.635 31.008
2000 212.464 155.042 123.573 31.469
2001 215.326 157.497 12 5.544 31.953
2002 218.294 160.024 127.587 32.438
2003 221.599 162.738 129.810 32.928
2004 225.084 165.587 132.136 33.451-2005 228.748 168.580 134.580 34.000
2006 232.591 171.742 13 7.156 34.586
2007 236.623 175.015 139.821 35.194
2008 240.870 178.463 142.629 35.834
2009 245.202 181.963 145.466 36.497
2010 249.802 185.697 148.503 37.194
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES:HH,HH.IR,HH.AG,AND HH.FG
N-43
!I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ...-
MAP Documentation
May 1983
~
TABLE N.7.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part F
State Households by Age of Head
(thousands)
Head -Total Younger Head 25-29 Head 30-54 Head Older
Than 25 Than 54
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884 -
1985 163.950 18.848 26.414 92.778 25.911
1986 168.855 19.066 26.951 95.877 26.961
1987 172.483 19.048 27.157 98.288 27.990 ,~
1988 175.656 18.974 27.262 100.385 29.035
1989 17 8.581 18.890·27.325 102.262 30.104
1990 182.967 19.088 27.794 104.821 31.264
1991 184.851 18.863 27.612 106.018 32.358
1992 191.181 19.431 28.633 109.460 33.657
1993 194.539 19.456 28.843 111.372 34.868
1994 196.363 19.251 28.671 112.396 36.045
1995 198.528 19.152 28.635 113.485 37.257
1996 201.210 19.168 28.774 114.765 38.503
1997 204.142 19.238 29.006 116 .12 8 39.770 ""'\
1998 206.839 19.274 29.198 117.333 41.034
1999 209.590 19.325 29.425 118.536 42.304
2000 212.464 19.399 29.702 119.785 43.578
2001 215.326 19.469 29.989 121.018 44.850 ""'"
2002 218~294 19.554 30.316 122.305 46.120
2003 221.599 19.685 30.737 123.779 47.398
2004 225.084 19.833 31.205 125.372 48.674 ""'"I
2005 228.748 19.995 31.714 12 7.090 49.949
2006 232.591 20.169 32.261 128.937 51.223
2007 236.623 20.356 32.846 130.924 52.497
2008 240.870 20.559 33.473 133.067 53.772
2009 245.202 20.756 34.103 135.297 55.045
2010 249.802 20.978 34.787 137.712 56.325 -
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES:HH,HH24,HH25.29,HH30.54,AND HH55
N-44
-
-
-
N-45
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.8.SIMUlATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 50%
Part B
State Government Expenditures
(Million $)
Unre--Stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings -tures Reinvested
~
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 468.262 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.373 98.406 196.387 0.000 350.000 0.500 ~
1985 3110.568 98.402 220.325 0.000 300.000 0.500
1986 3337.280 98.398 245.765 0.000 200.000 0.500
1987 3537.842 98.391 273.609 0.000 100.000 0.500
1988 3732.573 98.387 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500
1989 4001.927 98.391 0.000 213.199 0.000 0.500
1990 4769.551 98.406 0.000 435.587 0.000 0.000
1991 4623.320 98.410 0.000 478.524 0.000 0.000
1992 4662.992 98.426 0.000 527.755 0.000 0.000
1993 4777.902 98.445 0.000 580.122 0.000 0.000
1994 4868.406 98.457 0.000 614.701 0.000 0.000 ""'"1995 4848.777 98.477 0.000 654.437 0.000 0.000
1996 4828.109 98.496 0.000 704.480 0.000 0.000
1997 5044.152 98.516 0.000 761.752 0.000 0.000
1998 5209.805 98.539 0.000 822.762 0.000 0.000 -,
1999 5353.863 98.555 0.000 887.839 0.000 0.000
2000 5552.078 98.570 0.000 959.271 0.000 0.000
2001 5764.133 98.594 0.000 1036.618 0.000 0.000 IIlII!R
2002 5989.840 98.617 0.000 1120.812 0.000 0.000
2003 6234.121 98.641 0.000 1214.389 0.000 0.000
2004 6499.957 98.664 0.000 1316.726 0.000 0.000
2005 6782.723 98.688 0.000 1427.049 0.000 0.000 -
2006 7085.309 98.719 0.000 1546.408 0.000 0.000
2007 .7408.457 98.750 0.000 1675.305 0.000 0.000
2008 7753.820 98.781 0.000 1814.485 0.000 0.000 -2009 8121.906 98.816 0.000 1962.965 0.000 0.000
2010 8512.801 98.852 0.000 2123.280 0.000 0.000
~
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES:EXGFBM,BALGF.EXTRNS,RTIS,EXSUBS,AND EXPFBAK
N-46
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES:EM97,EM99,M.IR,M.AG J AND M.FG
N-47
i I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.8.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 50%
Part D
Population
(thousands)
~,
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks I!IJiI!iIlIf1I
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.750 330.199 259.677 70.523
1985 486.327 339.204 267.539 71.666
1986 499.149 346.988 274.031 72.957 ""'"
1987 508.054 352.021 277.833 74.190
1988 516.259 356.992 281.952 75.041
1989 523.255 363.345 287.469 75.877
1990 533.184 371.539 294.078 77 .461
1991 535.306 372.958 295.108 77.850
1992 550.842 382.528 303.978 78.551
1993 557.199 385.835 306.233 79.602
1994 559.519 389.212 308.219 80.994
1995 563.529 391.838 310.628 81.210
1996 569.216 395.991 314.124 81.868
1997 575.498 401.438 318.628 82.810
1998 581.204 406.133 322.491 83.642
1999 587.213 411.184 326.660 84.524 !IIlIIIII!il
2000 593.612 416.622 331.082 85.540
2001 599.998 422.232 335.608 86.625
2002 606.741 428.069 340.351 87.718
2003 614.511 434.441 345.608 88.834
2004 622.832 441.222 351.177 90.045
2005 631.699 448.422 357.087 91.336
2006 641.101 456.103 363.376 92.727
2007 651.071 464.117 369.933 94.184
2008 661.676 472.628 376.894 95.735
2009 672 .544 481.306 383.955 97.352 ~
2010 684.180 490.620 391.560 99.060
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES:POP,P.IR.P.AG,AND P.FG
N-48 -
N-49
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES:HH,HH24,HH25.29,HH30.54,AND HH55
N-50
....
Institute of Social
~and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues-(Million $),,
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of,.-Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and PermanentITaxesFederalFund
Shared Contri-
"""Royalties bution)
-1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1397.200 1437.120 228.191 148.600 3260.211 2898.636
1984 1085.640 1105.560 246.485 153.200 2625.951 2345.775
1985 1092.300 1102.230 258.062 158.000 2640.283 ~359.785
1986 1165.840 1165.840 272.590 163.456 2795.716 2497.258
1987 1213.960 1194.380 282.095 169.101 2887.379 2576.928
1988 1261.620 1261.620 303.955 174.940 3030.492 2707.998
1989 1356.640 1112.640 311.768 180.981 2991.180 2644.733
1990 1287.000 1033.500 301.135 187.231 2838.930 2509.664
1991 1167.600 875.700 315.190 193.697 2583.214 2283.557
1992 1127.520 816.480 336.321 200.385 2512.718 2222.835-336.977,1993 1068.100 737.960 207.305 2383.346 2108.070I
1994 1008.800 669.300 333.018 214.464 2259.583 1998.883
1995 949.620 639.540 371.129 221.870 2217.159 1971.004
19-96 891.480 513.570 350.428 229.532 2021.010 1789.139
1997 891.480 513.570 366.894 237.458 2046.402 1814.281
1998 891.480 513.570 401.205 245.658 2089.912 1857.542
1999 891.480 494.190 437.106 254.141 2115.917 1883.297
2000 891.480 487.765 470.420 262.917 2152.583 1919.712
2001 891.480 481.424 506.272 271.996 2192.173 1959.053
2002 891.480 475.166 544.858 281.389 2234.893 2001.522
2003 891.480 468.988 586.384 291.106 2280.958 2047.338
2004 891.480 462.891 631.075 301.158 2330.605 2096.735
2005 891.480 456.874 679.173 311.558 2384.084 2149.964-2006 891.480 450.934 730.936 322.317 2441.667 2207.297
I 2007 891.480 445.072 786.644 333.447 2503.643 2269.023
2008 891.480 439.286 846.598 344.962 2570.325 2335.455
2009 891.480 433.575 911.121 356.874 2642.050 2406.930
2010 891.480 427.938 980.562 369.198 2719.178 2483.808
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.10
VARIABLES:RPRY.RPTS.RTCSPX.RPPS.RP9S.AND RP9SGF
N-51
N-52
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9.SIMUIATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%
Part C-Employment
(thousands)
State
Non-Ag State Railbe1t Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 120.533 33.500
'"'"'1983 202.237 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
1984 205.898 246.979 162.255 12 7.849 34.405
1985 210.382 251.771 165.005 130.511 34.494
~1986 216.369 258.164 168.030 133.060 34.970
1987 219.391 261.406 168.946 133.759 35.187
1988 222.773 265.021 170.703 135.228 35.475
1989 223.705 266.045 171.722 136.261 35.462
1990 227.346 269.932 17 3.452 137.841 35.611
1991 223.998 266.385 172 .640 137.023 35.617
1992 236.533 279.749 178.402 142.269 36.133
!"""1993 235.556 278.733 179.120 142.573 36.548
1994 233.547 276.627 178.479 141.864 36.615
1995 235.158 278.384 180.284 143.355 36.929-1996 237.669 281.108 182.274 145.029 37.245
1997 240.468 284.154 184.771 147.112 37.659
1998 242.718 286.632 187.12 8 149.028 38.100
1999 245.504 289.703 189.769 151.198 38.572
f"'"'2000 248.530 292.980 192.563 153.473 39.090
2001 251.482 296.126 195.389 155.763 39.626
2002 254.687 299.542 198.389 158.204 40.185
2003 258.737 303.860 201.717 160.953 40.764
2004 263.021 308.428 205.348 163.931 41.418
2005 267.615 313.327 209.228 167.109 42.119
2006 272.425 318.459 213.336 170.469 42.867
2007 277.474 323.846 217.633 173.975 43.658
2008 282.817 329.549 222.135 177.652 44.483
2009 288.0·60 335.147 226.733 181.376 45.356
2010 293.792 341.269 231.546 185.306 46.241
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.10
VARIABLES:EM97,EM99,M.IR,M.AG,AND M.FG
N-53
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%
Part D
Po u1ation
thousands)~
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.747 330.197 259.675 70.522
1985 483.812 337.814 266.557 71.257
1986 494.582 343.998 271.775 72.224
1987 501.725 347.784 274.588 73.197
1988 508.614 351.775 277.917 73.858
1989 514.242 357.214 282.721 74.494 -
1990 522.041 364.097 288.349 75.748
1991 523.050 364.573 288.595 75.978
1992 537.925 373.654 297.067 76.588 -1993 543.329 376.343 298.846 77 .497
1994 544.564 379.002 300.274 78.728
1995 548.379 381.365 302.438 78.928 ~
1996 553.758 385.344 305.800 79.545
1997 559.688 390.546 310.111 80.436
1998 565.359 395.149 313.882 81.268
1999 571.535 400.271 318.090 82.181 ~
2000 578.103 405.802 322.577 83.226
2001 584.683 411.520 327.179 84.341
2002 591.664 417.493 332.022 85.471 """"'
2003 599.702 424.024 337.396 86.628
2004 608.314 430.982 343.098 87.884
2005 617.487 438.370 349.149 89.221
2006 627.202 446.244 355.586 90.659
2007 637.486 454.454 362.291 92.163
2008 648.399 463.156 369.396 93.760
2009 659.563 472 .016 376.596 95.420 -2010 671.471 481.497 384.327 97.170
.....
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.10
VARIABLES:POP,P.IR,P.AG,AND P.FG ,...,
.N-54
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%
Part E
Households
(thousands)
1""'1 Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks
~
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159.152 115.669 91.423 24.246
.-1985 163.108 118.748 94.165 24.583
1986 167.277 121.333 96.324 25.009
1987 170.170 122.994 97.573 25.421
"""1988 172.954 124.784 99.048 25.736
1989 175.287 U6.955 100.941 26.014
1990 178.353 129.695 103.170 26.525
1991 179.076 130.070 103.420 26.651
1992 184.548 133.664 106.732 26.932
1993 186.777 134.843 107.541 27.302
1994 187.566 136.019 108.222 27.797-1995 189.226 137.079 109.168 27.911
1996 191.415 138.725 110.547 28.178
1997 193.788 140.813 112.269 28.545
1998 196.069 142.657 113.772 28.884
1999 198.519 144.685 115.432 29.254
2000 201.099 146.858 117.188 29.670
2001 203.678 149.093 118.981 30.112
I""'"2002 206.391 151.418 120.860 30.558I
2003 209.460 153.941 122.928 31.013
2004 212.722 156.610 125.108 31.502
2005 216.174 159.429 U 7 .409 32.020
2006 219.810 162.421 129.847 32.574
2007 223.639 165.525 132.375 33.150-2008 227.684 168.804 135.044 33.760
2009 231.816 172.135 .137.743 34.392
2010 236.203 175.691 140.634 35.057
-SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.10
VARIABLES:HH,HH.IR,HH.AG,AND HH.FG
N-55
I I
.....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9.SIMULATION CASE:DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%-'?I
Part F
State Households by Age of Head
(thousands)-
Head
~
Total Younger Head 25-29 Head 30-54 Head Older
Than 25 Than 54
~
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159.152 18.624 25.919 89.725 24.884
1985 163.108 18.700 26.196 92 .335 25.878
1986 167.277 18.807 26.558 95.015 26.897
1987 170.170 18.690 26.601 96.985 27.893
1988 172.954 18.587 26.644 98.808 28.915 ~
1989 17 5.287 18.439 26.597 100.303 29.949
1990 178.353 18.452 26.773 102.088 31.040
1991 17 9 .076 18.089 26.357 102.565 32.066 ~
1992 184.548 18.581 27.239 105.429 33.299
1993 186.777 18.487 27.246 106.618 34.428
1994 187.566 18.186 26.905 106.959 35.517
1995 189.226 18.081 26.847 107.647 36.650
1996 191.415 18.087 26.964 108.553 37.811
1997 193.788 18.U8 27.152 109.527 38.981
1998 196.069 18.156 27.334 1l0.434 40.145 -1999 198.519 18.213 27.575 111.42 0 41.312
2000 201.099 18.287 27.860 112.474 42.477
2001 203.678 18.356 28.151 113.537 43.634 ~
2002 206.391 18.441 28.481 114.683 44.786
2003 209.460 18.573 28.906 116.040 45.941
2004 212.722 18.722 29.374 117.533 47.093
2005 216.174 18.884 29.882 119.165 48.242
2006 219.810 19.059 30.425 UO.937 49.389
2007 223.639 19.247 31.003 122.855 50.534
2008 227.684 19.450 31.619 124.933 51.682 -2009 231.816 19.649 32.238 127.101 52.828
2010 236.203 19.870 32.904 U9.448 53.981 -
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.10
VARIABLES:HH,HH24,HH25.29,HH30.54,AND 0055 "'""
N-56
~
Institute of Social-and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1""'\TABLE N.10.SIMULATION CASE:DRI JUNE OIL PRICE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
"""(Million $)
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
!"""Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri--Royalties bution)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1457.689 1466.341 232.831 148.600 3354.561 2977 .864
1984 12 74.960 1307.848 291.585 153.200 3062.659 2735.153
1985 1622.790 1624.002 380.222 158.000 3814.706 3401.586
1986 1968.274 1937.369 452.985 163.456 4550.070 4051.005
1987 2351.861 2291.565 541.234 169.101 5381.598 4786.668
1988 2679.573 2195.610 528.976 174.940 5607.453 4930.469-1989 3131.633 2563.191 718.220 180.981 6623.172 5832.973
I 1990 3568.237 2902.565 845.732 187.231 7533.824 6634.246I
1991 3561.764 2791.625 1004.789 193.697 7582.895 6684.695
1992 3675.249 2787.725 1148.309 200.385 7843.676 6916.859
1993 3867.240 2879.209 1314.741 207.305 8301.492 7326.430
1994 4077 .600 2971.692 1478.601 214.464 8776.352 7748.449
1995 3915.632 2751.747 1596.855 221.870 8521.102 7533.441
1996 3817.288 2546.900 1737.845 229.532 8367.563 7404.238
1997 4028.878 2711.620 1937.181 237.458 8952.133 7935.660
1998 4172 .879 2748.733 2147.331 245.658 9352.590 8299.871
1999 4279.906 2707.357 2394.630 254.141 9675.030 8595.305
2000 4446.820 2764.211 2665.913 262.917 10179.860 9058.150
2001 4620.238 2822.259 2967.929 271.996 10723.420 9558.110
2002 4800.426 2881.526 3304.160 281.389 11309.490 10098.880
2003 4987.637 2942.038 3678.481 291.106 11942.260 10684.600
2004 5182.152 3003.820 4095.210 301.158 12626.330 11319.790
2005 5384.254 3066.900 4559.148 311.558 13366.860 12009.540
2006 5594.234 3131.304 5075.645 322.317 14169.500 12 759.440
2007 5812.406 3197.061 5650.656 333.447 15040.570 13575.710
2008 6039.086 3264.199 6290.809 344.962 15987.050 14465.280
2009 6274.605 3332.747 7003.484 356.874 17016.710 15435.800
2010 6519.313 3402.734 7796.898 369.198 18138.140 16495.810
.....
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.13
VARIABLES:RPRY.RPTS,RTCSPX,RPPS.RP9S.AND RP9SGF
N-57
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.13
VARIABLES:EXGFBM,BALGF,EXTRNS,RTIS,EXSUBS,AND EXPFBAK
N-58
-
-
--
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.10.SIMULATION CASE:DRI JUNE OIL PRICE
Part C
Employment
(thousands)
State
Non-Ag State Rai1be1t Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 120.533 33.500
.I"""1983 202.237 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 127.853 34.406
1985 216.599 258.382 169.186 133.660 35.526
1986 225.497 267.875 174.803 138.312 36.492
1987 230.826 273.574 177.407 140.341 37.066
1988 234.683 277.697 179.445 142.084 37.361
1989 238.437 281.728 182.370 144.634 37.736
1990 245.796 289.578 186.951 148.495 38.456
1991 246.117 289.936 188.872 149.836 39.035
1992 263.377 308.354 198.185 157.915 40.270
1993 266.931 312.170 202.238 160.829 41.410
1994 269.483 314.925 204.957 162.757 42.201
1995 275.114 320.974 209.761 166.611 43.149
1996 282.004 328.378 214.959 170.801 44.158
1997 288.122 334.976 220.051 174.958 45.093
1998 293.168 340.446 224.616 178.642 45.974
1999 298.607 346.359 229.354 182.491 46.864.....2000 304.117 352.300 234.133 186.358 47.775
2001 309.399 357.945 238.837 190.153 48.684
2002 314.863 363.787 243.671 194.067 49.604,...2003 321.155 370.515 248.829 198.292 50.538
2004 327.646 377 .460 254.280 202.73 7 51.543
2005 336.150 386.560 261.894 ·208.947 52.947
2006 345.390 396.451 270.171 215.700 54.472
2007 353.878 405.542 277.342 221.536 55.807
2008 362.560 414.843 284.617 227.454 57.164
2009 371.197 424.099 292.032 233.452 58.581
2010 380.238 433.793 299.610 239.615 59.996
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.13
VARIABLES:EM97,EM99 ,M.IR,M.AG,AND M.FG
-N-59
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation """\
May 1983
TABLE N.10.SIMULATION CASE:DRI JUNE OIL PRICE -Part D
Population
(thousands)~
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks ~
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277 ....,
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.753 330.202 259.679 70.523
1985 490.133 341.600 269.290 72.311 -1986 505.862 352.168 278.066 74.102
1987 517.417 359.044 283.324 75.721
1988 526.842 364.604 287.987 76.618
1989 536.724 372.633 294.861 77.773
1990 550.045 383.595 303.763 79.832
1991 557.236 388.459 307.488 80.972
1992 579.521 402.902 320.218 82.684 ..
1993 593.536 411.639 326.747 84.893
1994 603.152 420.129 332.774 87.355
1995 614.876 428.092 339.354 88.739
1996 628.667 437.907 347.294 90.614
1997 642.228 448.675 356.050 92 .62 5
1998 654.965 458.457 363.963 94.495
1999 667.922 468.542 372.139 96.404
2000 680.962 478.847 380.448 98.399
2001 693.722 489.139 388.714 100.425
2002 706.663 499.553 397.119 102.435 -2003 720.513 510.446 405.999 104.448
2004 734.791 521.685 415.146 106.539
2005 751.282 535.855 426.702 109.154
2006 769.276 551.258 439.266 111.992
2007 787.028 565.256 450.661 114.596
2008 805.142 579.507 462.250 117.257
2009 823.611 593.995 473.992 120.004
2010 842.794 609.094 486.263 122.832
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.13
VARIABLES:POP,P.IR,P.AG,AND P.FG 0
-
N-60 -
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
""'"TABLE N .10.SIMULATION CASE:DRI JUNE OIL PRICEi
Part E
Households
(thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbe1t Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.678 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159.154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 165.294 120.136 95.162 24.974.
1986 171.184 124.268 98.574 25.694
1987 175.615 12 7 .049 100.706 26.343
1988 179.293 129.422 102.675 26.747
1989 183.115 132.550 105.332 27.219
1990 188.112 136.764 108.740 28.024
1991 191.001 138.737 110.252 28.486
""'"1992 199.069 144.276 115.104 29.172
1993 204.317 147.661 117.639 30.022
1994 208.060 150.974 12 O.000 30.974
1995 212.522 154.•096 122.566 31.529I""'"1996 217.698 157.897 125.631 32.266
1997 222.804 162.046 128.994 33.053
1998 227.636 165.822 132.038 33.784
I"""1999 232.550 169.714 135.183 34.531i
2000 237.500 173.690 138.379 35.311
2001 242.360 177.666 141.562 36.104
2002 247.288 181.691 144.799 36.891
2003 252.531 185.893 148.213 37.680
2004 257.927 190.218 151.722 38.496
2005 264.082 195.554 156.059 39.495
2006 270.758 201.332 160.758 40.574
2007 277.366 206.646 165.070 41.576
2008 284.108 212.058 169.457 42.601
2009 290.982 217.557 173.900 43.657
2010 298.108 223.283 178.540 44.744
"""I
-I
,..,.
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.13
VARIABLES:HH,HH.IR,HH.AG,AND HH.FG
N-61
I.I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.10.SIMULATION CASE:DRI JUNE OIL PRICE
Part F
State Households by Age of Head
(thousands)-
Head
Total Younger Head 25-29 Head 30-54 Head Older
Than 25 Than 54
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884 "",:.
1985 165.294 19.084 26.762 93.484 25.964
1986 171.184 19.446 27.530 97.153 27.055
1987 175.615 19.525 27.904 100.064 28.123
1988 179.293 19.489 28.087 102.519 29.199
1989 183.115 19.511 28.325 104.960 30.320
1990 188.112 19.758 28.884 107.943 31.527
1991 191.001 19.648 28.890 109.773 32.690 ...
1992 199.069 20.445 30.282 114.249 34.094
1993 204.317 20.702 30.879 117.311 35.426
1994 208.060 20.712 31.078 119.532 36.737
1995 212.522 20.873 31.492 122.047 38.111
1996 217.698 21.160 32.105 124.889 39.544
1997 222.804 21.428 32.702 127.672 41.002
1998 227.636 21.646 33.230 130.284 42.476 ....
1999 232.550 21.877 33.787 132.910 43.977
2000 237.500 22.109 34.359 135.530 45.501
2001 242.360 22.323 34.913 138.084 47.039
2002 247.288 22.543 35.491 140.656 48.597
2003 252.531 22.805 36.156 143.388 50.182
2004 257.927 23.077 36.858 146.204 51.786 -2005 264.082 23.448 37.756 149.445 53.433
2006 270.758 23.868 38.771 153.006 55.112
2007 277.366 24.245 39.740 156.579 56.803
2008 284.108 24.614 40.718 160.263 58.514
2009 290.982 24.979 41.704 164.053 60.246
2010 298.108 25.358 42.733 168.013 62.005 -
SOURCE:MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.13
VARIABLES:HH,HH24,HH25.29,HH30.54,AND HH55
-
-
N-62
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.ll.SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues.....(Million $)
Tota 1 Inc 1.a
Bonuses and Total
Corporate Federal to
Severance Income Property Shared General
Royalties Taxes Taxes Taxes Royalties Fund
(RPRY)(RPTS)(RTCSPX)(RPPS)(RP9S)(RP9SGF)
.,...
1961 .2 0 4.2 4.2
1962 1 .2 26 26
~1963 1.1 .3 27.9 27.9
1964 1.2 .3 14.8 14.8
1965 1.9 .3 16.3 16.3
....1966 2.8 .3 21.6 21.6
1967 4.6 .1 21.2 21.2
1968 12.4 1.2 42.9 42.9
1969 20.2 5.6 34.4 34.4
1970 22.4 7.9 938.6 938.6
1971 27 10.5 46.3 46.3
1972 27.5 11.4 47 47
1973 26.8 12 49.3 49.3
1974 32.8 14.8 79.5 79.5
1975 44.3 26.6 6.6 88.3 88.3
1976 47.4 28 83.4 387 387
.....1977 37.7 23.8 139.1 473.2 469.2
1978 202.5 107.7 173 488 437.5
1979 335.1 173.8 232.6 163.4 910.4 826.5
19~0 921.6 506.2 547.5 168.9 2607.1 2262.3
1981 1498.5 1169.9 860.1 143 3692.9 3307.8-1982 1546.5 .1581.1 668.9 142.7 3967.8 3567.3i
i
f"'"aA1so includes reserves t'ax 1n 1976-1977.
SOURCE:MAP MODEL DATABASE-
rr
N-63
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.ll.SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES ~.
Part B
State Government Expenditures
(Million $).....
Percent of
Permanent
Unrestricted General Permanent State State Fund
General Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Earnings
Expenditures Balance Dividends Income Tax Program Reinvested -(EXGFBM)(BALGF)(EXTRNS)(RTIS)(EXSUBS)(EXPFBAK)
P'I.
1961 9.8 0 10.4 0 0
1962 24.4 12.2
1963 37.0 13.0
1964 90.6 20.2 13.9
1965 82.7 28.4 16.2
1966 92.3 29.3 19.2
1967 102.2 23.8 22.7
1968 ll9.5 22.6 22.6
1969 145.7 7.4 25.2 ~1970 188.6 790.0 32.4
1971 270.2 836.5 35.5
1972 298.7 761.3 39.1 """lI,
1973 340.4 644.5 43.4
1974 408.8 516.9 49.2
1975 453.3 379.3 86.9 Ilfil!II!lIJ
1976 582.1 504.9 146.2 0
1977 685.8 668.2 210.4
~;
1978 794.8 651.0 145.7
1979 949.5 684.2 117.2
1980 1172 .8 1549.1 100.5 -1981 4349.57 821.1 0 772
1982 0 0 634 0
SOURCE:MAP MODEL DATABASE
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~TABLE N.ll.SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
Part C
Employment
(Thousand)
State Non-Ag.Wage and Salary
Plus Active Duty Military
Non-Ag.and Reservists
Wage and
Non-Ag.Salary Greater Greater
Wage and Plus Rai1be1 t Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Military Total Total Total Total
(EM97)(EM98)(EM99)(M.IR)(M.AG)(M.FG)
.-
1961 56.9 89.4 94.3
1962 58.7 91.7 97 .1
1963 62.1 95.1 100.7
1964 65.4 97.8 103.8
1965 70.5 103.5 110.0 74.1 52.3 21.8
1966 73.2 106.4 113.5 75.3 53.5 21.8
1967 76.8 110.5 119.2 77 .4 55.8 21.6
1968 79.8 112 .4 121.1 79.3 57.2 22.1
1969 86.6 118.9 127.4 85.3 61.3 24.0
1970 92 .5 123.9 133.4 88.5 64.2 24.3
1971 97.6 127.5 137.2 90.8 67.1 23.7
1972 104.2 135.0 145.5 93.4 70.0 23.4
1973 109.8 136.8 147.3 95.2 72.6 22.6
1974 128.2 153.7 165.3 107.5 81.0 26.5
1975 161.3 186.6 197.5 130.4 93.4 37.0
1976 171.2 195.6 207.6 134.0 97.0 37.0
1977 164.1 189.1 203.3 134.9 103.0 31.9
1978 163.3 185.8 201.1 130.9 101.5 29.4
1979 166.4 189.7 206.1 132.0 102.7 29.3,..1980 170.8 194.1 211.2
1981 183.7 207.0 224.3
1982 194.4
SOURCE:MAP MODEL DATABASE
r
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SOURCE:MAP MODEL DATABASE
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F""TABLE N.11.SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
Part E
Households
(Thousand)
Greater Greater
F""State Rai1be1t Anchorage Fairbanks
!(RH)(HH.IR)(RH.AG)(HR.FG)
1950 31.028
1960 57.250 37.062 26.006 11.056
1970 79.059 54.057 41.440 12.617
1980a 131.068 94.210 74.287 19.923
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r
Note:1980 Census areas are not exactly equivalent to 1970 Census
Divisions.
aTaken from Alaska Department of Labor,Alaska Population Overview,
1981.
SOURCE:MAP MODEL DATABASE
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TABLE N.11.SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
Part F
State Households by Age of Head
(Thousand)
Head Head Head Head
Total Younger than 25 25 -29 30 -54 Older than 54
(HH)(HH24)(HH25.29)(HH30.54)(HH55)
19601 57.250 4.356 8.307 35.895 8.692
19702 79.739 9.044 11.909 46.247 12.539
19803 131.463 15.531 23.034 73.130 19.768
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11960 Census of Population,Vol.1,Part 3,Alaska.
21970 Census of Population,Detailed Characteristics,Final
Report PC(l)-03 Alaska.
31980 Census of Population Summary Tape File 2B,Table 21
(special ISER tabulation).
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HAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX 0
PREVIOUS ISER STUDIES OFRAILBELT ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS
The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)has been
involved in two recent studies of railbelt electric power
requirements prior to the current study reported .upon in this
technical documentation report.The purpose of this appendix is to
review the role of the Institute in those previous study efforts.
The first study,enti tIed Electric Power Consumption for the
Railbelt:A Projection of Requirements (June 1980),was prepared by
ISER for the House Power Alternatives study Committee of the Alaska
state Legislature and the Alaska Power Authority.The study
produced the first set of projections of railbelt electricity needs
based upon analytical models.Table B (reproduced)summarizes those
projections.
The study was based upon a -set of nine state economic
projections produced by a version of the ISER HAP economic model
(including the population module).This model was similar,but not
identical,in structure to the model used in subsequent efforts,
including the current report.The nine projections were produced
using three "e~onomic scenarios"and three "fiscal scenarios."
Table C.ll (reproduced)shows the projections of population in these
nine cases.
Four addi tional models and modules were newly constructed and
used in the study.These included a household formation module,a
regional allocation model,a housing stock model,and an energy end-
use model.All except the housing stock model have continued to be
used in subsequent studies of railbelt electricity needs.
-
TABLE C.ll.POPULATION,1980-2000
(thousands of people)
"""
.....
J.'7 ".::~..}
,~'.:''••:.'-,_'.1
..•.",,",".I::.~~.'..../......
.,.".",~:,'../
,,,.
L.1::.~::l ~.(J ;._
j'iE~3 ,.GH
....-.-'••",,-<...-At"",..:.L + /...::t'/
''','".'\....-"",.'
/'iJ'"..''"U /'::>
.:5 ::j 0 ~,~~~~j A·
~::•.,:~.~~;v ~~~~):L
SCENARIO NM1ES:
1_,....,r -.,,.'....,.
.~~.cj J.y ,,:)·"'t \;)
~51:I.t 1~,::55
~ji=15y2El
6:;}~)t 5:?~:~
421~737
:.5J.5 (,-'t3?
:;j·::'6 t :26 J'
6~:)8 ~:'25:.7
-'!f~:-40:,_.',,..=......
/...},,;}it ...t ..,\,l,."'j
HES.GL
~:)12 ~~:,12()
~)?O 9 '790
1::J t:>0 +O·.;*~3
~t2:J.t 737
4~.~1 it 73,"
~::;:3 ~-S t =::'~?0
t~~J_,4 +-1~?6 ~~i
LES.GL -Low Economic/Low Government
LES.GM -Low Economic/Moderate Government
LES.GH -Low Economic/High Government
MES.GL -Hoderate Economic/Low Government
MES.GM -Moderate Economic/Moderate Government
MES.GH -Moderate Economic/High'Government
HES.GL -High Economic/Low Government
HES.GM -High Economic/Moderate Government
HES.GH -High Economic/High Government
Note:Values in 1980 adjusted to be the same in all cases;adjusts
for minor differences in exogenous series.
Reprinted from:Electric Power Consumption for the Rai1be1t:A
Projection of Requirements (June 1980),ISER,p.C.42.
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The current version of the household formation model is similar
in structure to the version developed for the 1980 study.The
regional allocation model utilized in that study has been completely
redesigned as the Regionalization Model.The end-use model has come
to be known as the RED model.
The economic projections using the ISER MAP economic model ended
in 2000,and values to 2010 were extrapolated.Four elec tri ci ty
requirements projections were made and reported (Table B).State
petroleum revenues projections utilized the Alaska Department of
Revenue March 1980 forecast.Alternate revenue projections were not
utilized since the "fiscal rule"in use was based upon alternative
assumptions of the elastici ty of state spending to state personal
income,and state revenues did not constitute a constraint on
spending.
The second study,done under subcontract for Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories,is entitled Alaska Economic Projections for
Estimating Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt (October
1981).This report was subsequently published in September 1982 as
Volume IX of their study entitled Railbelt Electric Power
Alternatives study for the Office of the Governor,Division of
Policy Development and Planning and the Governor's Policy Review
Commi ttee.
The purpose of this study was to produce updated and refined
economic projections of railbelt activity similar in scope to those
of the earlier study.It utilized an updated version of the ISER
HAP economic model (including the population module),an updated
vers ion of the household formation module,and the newly created
Regionalization Model.The economic and fiscal scenarios were
completely updated and documented.
ISER was not involved in the projection of electricity
requirements for this study.Battelle utilized the end-use model
previously constructed by ISER,modified and updated it,and named
it the RED model.
The report presented the results of three sets of economic
projections through the year 2000 involving various combinations of
"economic scenarios"and "fiscal rules"similar to those of the
earlier report.As before,petroleum revenues were not a constraint
on government spending.In addition,a projection was made in which
an "industrialization case"was added t9 the moderate economic
scenario,which was composed of industries thought to be responsive
to locating in Alaska if electricity prices were favorable.(ISER
also generated a projection for Battelle in which the
industrialization case was grafted onto the high economic scenario.
This was done subsequent to our wri tten report.)The choice of
these economic projections was dictated by Battelle.In addition,a
"fiscal crisis"projection was presented which involved a projection
0-4
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of petroleum revenues less than the base case.The statewide
population projections for four of those cases are shown as
Table r.32.An explanation of why these proj ections are slightly
lower than those in the earlier report were explained in the study.
0-5
'Table 1.32.Summary of Four Projections
Population
(thousands)
POP -ENDOGENOUS
.,..,I·
.c.LL B.Hi B.HH
1'?80
1981
1982
.•~.-....r-
J..,Q.J
1.';:86
1'7'87
.L ~~8a
1789
1.'?9~)
1 ~;.'.7'".L
.1.:)=':;;'3
J.'7'=74
j.'7':;;-5
I ,'-."-,..J.."!''?c:,
:i.':':;'97
1.'1'7'8
2()OO
400.457
410.;:309
426.042
437 ..823
45.2 •.251
479 ..816
3()~•C·C·3
513.303
31:L,,41'7
516~':.?~3~3
52:t~771
5'~:;8+()1·.r"
544 ~53'"
S3().'72
36·4.2:33
400.457
412.3'75
428.251
...;-44.·492
4,'53.27,4
498.151
531.933
5·45 +3()~i
547v669
'0.:-___.-...,
Ji.~./":'.:-
5;'9.3.~··4
1::"",.,r:":'",I.-".J 7-;:)+...;,;.t..:r
608.'7'o~
~~21 ~1"73
.53·4 ~517'
674.903
400.457
412.616
429.36
446.752
467.662
506.492
549.615
56.~.246
578 +?CI"+
587.325
597.3
612.719
619.682
632 ..2'7'3
6-14.51
658.299
673i>9
'Q·t --....0,.1 •.;,/,,+
708.14
727.2,4-4
746.84:3
400.457
411.271
429.47
448 +58·4
472.623
C"~r ~.-,,,,,,
..J.l_I~I~~.a.;:
597.499
620.477
6·4().117
6:J6 t 4"7'6
671+785
710.077
---4--/,..:....:'+//
-~1:"--:'1 _•.-.:":""
I...}/+7':'_'
~,
\
-
-
-
=Low-Low Projection=Moderate-Moderate Projection
Industrialization Projection=High-High Projection
B.LL
B•~fr!
B.Il1 =
B.IDI
Reprinted from:Alaska Economic Projections for Estimating
Electricity Requirements for the Rai1belt (October 1981),ISER,
p.43.-
0-6
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX P
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM
ECONOM~~RIC MODELING BIBLIOGRAPHY
a.Books and Articles
Beharie,Nevel
Business and
1975).
O."Fiscal Data for
Economic Conditions,
Alaska,"A=l-=a:.::s..:.:k:.=a,--..:;R:.;:e,-,v,-"i,-,e:.::w~~o,-=-f
Vol.XII,No.2 (February
Goldsmith,Oliver S."A Personal Income Tax Simulation Model,"
Annals of Regional Science,Vol.XIII,No.1 (March 1979).
"Alaska Electrical Power Requirements--A Review and
Proj ection,"Alaska Review of Business and Eco-nomic Conditions,
Vol.XIV,No.2 (June 1977).
"Alaska's Revenue Forecasts and Expenditure Options,"
Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions,Vol.XV,No.2
(July 1978).
"Sustainable Spending from Alaska State Revenues,"Alaska
Review of Social and Economic Conditions,Vo1.XX,No.1
(February 1983).
"State Government Fiscal Policy and the Balanced Budget
Multiplier,"Annals of Regional Science,forthcoming.
"Petroleum Tax Policy to Achieve Smooth Economic Growth
in Alaska,"Journal of Energy and Development,Vol.V,No.1
(Autumn 1979).
Human Resources Planning Institute.A Forecast of Industrial and
Occupational Employment in Alaska,ISER Report No.43,1974.
Kresge,David T.
of Business
1974).
"Alaska Economic Growth 1961-1972,"Alaska Review
and Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,No.2 (August
i,
I'"'"
i
I
"Alaska's Growth to 1990,"Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XIII,No.1 (January 1976).
Kresge,David T.;Thomas A.Morehouse;and George W.Rogers.Issues
in Alaskan Development.Seattle:University of Washington
Press,1977.
Institute of social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Kresge,David T.,and Daniel A.Seiver."Planning for a Resource
Rich Region:The Case of Alaska,"American Economic Review
Papers and Proceedings,Vol.68,No.2 (May 1978).
Kresge,David T.,and Monica E.Thomas."Estimated Gross Product
for Alaska,"Alaska Review of Business and Economic Condi tions,
Vol.XI,No.1 (April 1974).
Kresge,David T.;Oliver S.Goldsmith;Michael J.Scott;and
Daniel A.Seiver.Public Policy for Regional Deve1opmeht,at
press.
-
"Man in the Arctic,"Mosaic,Vol.7,No.3 (May-June 1976).
Morehouse,Thomas A.
Review of Business
(March 1977).
"Petroleum Development in
and Economic Conditions,
Alaska,"
Vol.XIV,
Alaska
No.1 -
Porter,Edward,and Lee Huskey.
Federal OCS Leasing:The
(November 1981).
"The Regional Economic Effect of
Case of Alaska,"Land Economics
Seiver,Daniel A.
of Social and
1977).
"Alaska Economic Forecast--1978,"Alaska Review
Economic Conditions,Vol.XIV,No.3 (December
"Projecting the Income Distribution in a Regional
Economy,"Growth and Change,Vol.12,No.4 (October 1981).
"Projections of Manpower Requirements and Supplies Using
Public Use Sample Data,"Review of Public Use Data,Vol.6,
No.1 (January 1978).
Seiver,Daniel A.,and Susan R.Fison."Alaskan Population Growth
and Movements 1960-1973."ISER Research Note,1975.
Thomas,Monica E.,and Earlene Goodwin."Estimates of Alaska Gross
Product by Region,1965-1973,"A1askaReview of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XII,No.1 (March 1975).
b.Papers
-
-
Goldsmith,Oliver S."A
Policy Applications."
Fiscal Model for Alaska:Structure and
Western Economic Association,1977.
"Control Theory and the Long-Run Growth Pattern of
Resource-Based Open Economies."Western Economic Association,
1978.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"Fiscal Options and the Growth of the Alaskan Economy."
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference,1977.
"Future Electricity Requirements in Alaska."Western
Economic Association,1976.
"Petroleum Tax Policy to Achieve Smooth Economic Growth
in Alaska."Pacific Northwest Regional Economics Conference,
1978.
"Projecting Electricity Requirements for Alaska."Alaska
Science Conference,1976.
Goldsmi th,oliver S.,
Alaskan Economy:
Conference,1978.
and Lee Huskey."Structural Change in the
The Alyeska Experience."Alaska Science
Kresge,David T."Alaska's Growth to 1990:Policies and
Projections."Alaska Federal-State Land-Use Planning Commission
Conference,1975.
"Regional Impacts of Federal Energy Developments."
American Economic Association Meeting,Denver,September 1980.
Kresge,David T.,and Daniel A.Seiver."The HAP Model:An
Economic/Demographic Model of Alaska."Conference on Regional/
State Modeling sponsored by National Science Foundation,1980.
Morehouse,Thomas A.
Three Scenarios."
"Development of Alaska's Petroleum Resources:
Alaska Growth Policy Council,1975.
Scott,Michael J."Fiscal Consequences of Energy
Development:Planning for Government Services in
Western Economic Association,June 1978.
Resource
Alaska."
..-
"Some Aspects of the Economic Impact of OCS Development
in Alaska."Alaska Science Conference,1976.
"The Growth Consequences of Alternative Mineral Leasing
Policies."Western Econ<:>mic Association,June 1977.
Seiver,Daniel A."Alaska Economic Forecast for 1977."Captain
Cook Hotel,1977.
"Alaska Economic Forecast for 1978."Captatn Cook Hotel,
1978.
"Alaskan Demographic Data and Research."Northern
Demography Workshop of the Arctic Institute of North America,
1976 .
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"Alaskan Economic Growth:A Regional Model with Induced
Migration."Regional Science Association,1975.
ftprojecting Income Distribution in a Regional Economy."
Population Association of America,April 1978.
"A Quarterly Model of the Alaskan Economy.ft Western
Economic Association,1976......
"The Use of
Projections in Alaska.ft
an Econometric Model in Population
Population Association of America,1975.
c.Reports ,..,
Alves,Willi am;Thomas Lane;Michael Scott;and Robert Childers.
"The Effects of Regional Population Growth on Hunting for
Selected Big Game Species in Southcentral Alaska 1976-2000,"for
U.S.Fish and wildlife Service,1978.
Goldsmith,Oliver S."Kan-in-the-Arctic Program Economic Model
Documentation,"for Alaska OCS Program,1979.
"Improvements to Spec ification of the MAP Model,"for
Alaska OCS Office of the Bureau of Land Management,1982.
"Thinking About Alaska's Financial Future,"for State of
Alaska,House Finance Committee,January 1980.
""'"
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Goldsmith,Oliver S.,and Gordon Harrison.
Fund:An Economic and Policy Analysis."
Affairs Agency,1982.
"Education Endowment
Alaska Legislative
Goldsmith,Oliver S.,and Lee Huskey.ftThe Alpetco Petrochemical
Proposal:An Economic Impact Analysis,"for Legislative Affairs
Agency,Alaska State Legislature,1978.
"The Permanent Fund and the Growth of the Alaskan
Economy:Selected Studies,"for Interim House Commi ttee on the
Permanent Fund,Alaska State Legislature,1977.
"Electric Power Consumption for the Railbe1t:A
Projection of Requirements,"for State of Alaska House Power
Alternatives Study Committee and Alaska Power Authority,Kay
1980.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Goldsmith,Oliver S.;John A.Kruse;and Michael J.Scott."A
Preliminary Overview of the Economic and Social Effects of the
Proposed Northwest Gas Pipeline on Alaska,"for Gulf Interstate,
Inc.,1976.
Goldsmith,Oliver S.,and Thomas La,ne."Oil and Gas Consumption in
Alaska:1976-2000,"for Alaska Department of Natural Resources,
1978.
Goldsmith,Oliver S.,and Kent Killer."Energy Consumption in
Alaska,Estimate and Forecast,"for Division of Energy and Power
Development,Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic
Development,1977.
Goldsmith,.Oliver S.,and Kargat"et Kogford."The Relationship
Between the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline and State and Local
Government Expendi tures,"for State of Alaska,State Pipeli ne
Coordinator's Office,Decembet"1980.
Goldsmith,Oliver S.,and Kristina O'Connor."Alaskan Historical
and Projected oil and Gas Consumption,"for Alaska Department of
Natural Resources,1981.
"Oil and Gas Consumption:Present and Projected,"for
State of Alaska,Royalty Oil and Gas Development Advisory Board,
1980.
Goldsmith,Olivet"S.,and Edward Porter."Alaskan Economic
Projections for Estimating Electricity Requirements for the
Railbelt,"for Battelle Laboratories Northwest under contract to
the Alaska Policy Reveiw Committee,1981.
Goldsmith,Oliver S.,and Karen White."Historical and Projected
Oil and Gas Consumption,"for Alaska Department of Natural
Resources,1983.
Huskey,Lee."Forecast and Analysis of the Cumulative Mean Case,
Western Gulf of Alaska Impact Analysis"for Alaska oes Studies
Program,Bureau of Land Management (BLM)AlaskaOCS Office,1979.
Huskey,Lee,and Will Nebesky."Beaufort Sea Statewide and Regional
Population and Economic Systems Impact Analysis,"for Alaska OCS
Studies Program,BLM Alaska OCS Office,1978.
"Beaufort Sea statewide and Regional Demographic and
Economic Systems Impacts,"for Alaska oes Studies Program,BLM
Alaska oes Office,1981.
"Northern Gulf Petroleum Development Scenarios:Economic
and Demographic Impacts,"for Alaska oes Studies Program,BLM
Alaska oes Office,1979.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
"Western Gulf Petroleum Development Scenarios:Economic
and Demographic Impacts,"for Alaska oes Studies Program,BLM
Alaska oes Office,1919.
Huskey,Lee,and Edward Porter."Beaufort Sea Pet.ro1eum Development
Scenarios:Economic and Demograhpic Impact.s,"for Alaska oes
Studies Program,BLK Alaska oes Office,1918.
"Western Gulf of Alaska Statewide and Regional Population
and Economic Systems Impact Analysis,"for for Alaska oes
Studies Program,BLK Alaska oes Office,1919.
Huskey,Lee,and Brad Tuck."st.George Basin Petroleum Development
Scenarios,Economic and Demographic Analys is,"foro for Alaska
oes Studies Program.BLK Alaska oes Office,1981.
Knapp,Gunnarj Oliver S.Goldsmith;and Brian Reeder."Statewide
and Census Division Demographics and Economic Systems,Diapir
Field <Sale 8])Impact Analysis,,.for Alaska oes Studies
Program,Bureau of Land Kanagement oes Office,1983.
Knapp,Gunnarj P.J.Hillj and Edward Porter."North Aleutian Shelf
Statewide and Regional Demographic and Economic Systems Impacts
Analys is,"Alaska oes Studies Program Technical Report No.68,
for Bureau of Land Management oes Office,1982.
Knapp,Gunnarj Edward Porter;and Brian Reeder."Navarin Basin
Statewide and Regional Demographic and Economic Systems Impacts
Forecast,"Alaska oes Studies Program Technical Report No.18,
for Bureau of Land Kanagement OCS Office,1983.
Kresge,David T."Impact on t.he Alaskan Economy of Alt.ernative Gas
Pipelines,"for Aerospace Corp.and U.S.Department of Interior,
1915.
Lane,Ted,and Barbara Withers."Lower Cook Inlet Petroleum
Development Scenarios:Economic and Demographic Impacts,"for
Alaska OCS Studies Prbgram,BLM Alaska oes Office,1980.
Korehouse,Thomas A."Alaska's Growth and Futu['e Choices,"for
Growth Policy Council,Alaska Governor's Office,1916.
Nebesky,Will,and Lee Huskey."Statewide and Regional Economic and
Demographic Systems,Beaufort Sea:Impact Analysis,"for Alaska
OCS Office,Karch 1981 (draft).
Porter,Edward."Bering-Norton Petroleum Development Scenarios:
Economic and Demograhpic Impacts,"for Alaska OCS Studies
Program,BLM Alaska oes Office,1980.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Scott,Michael J."Analysis of Economic and Social Impact of
Alternative Routes for the Alaska Arctic Gas Pipeline,"for U.S.
Department of Interior,Bureau of Land Management,1975.
"Behavioral Aspects of the State of Alaska's Operat lng
Budget 1970-77 ,"for Legislative Affairs Agency,Alaska State
Legislature,1978 .
"Practical Issues in Long-Term Fiscal Planning for
Alaska,"for Alaska Division of Policy Development and Planning,
1917 .
"Southcentral Alaska's Economy and Population,1965-2025:
A Base Study and Projection,"for Economics Task Force of
Southcentral Alaska Water Resources Study (Level B),1978.
Seiver,Daniel A."Migration and Population Distribution in Alaska:
1974-1990,"for Joint Federal-State Land Use Planning
Commission,1976.
Tussing,ArIon,et al."Electric Power in Alaska 1975-1995,"for
House Finance Committee,Alaska State Legislature,1976.
d.MAP Results in other Work
r
I.
Goldsmith,Oliver S.
Anchorage,1977.
Population projections for Municipality of
Pernela,Lloyd,et al."Census of Alaska Transportation,"for U.S.
Department of Transportation,1976.
Scott,Michael J.
Federal Power
Transportation
1976.
Economic impact projections incorporated by the
Commission Staff in Alaska Natural Gas
Systems.Final Environmental Statement,April
Economic impact projections for Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories,appearing in W.Swift et aI,Alaskan
North Slope Royalty Natural Gas:An Analysis of Needs and
Opportunities for In-State Use.Final Report to Alaska Division
of Energy and Power Development,September 1977.
Regional employment
incorporated in Tongass Land
Overview.U.S.Department of
Alaska Region,n.d.(1978).
P-7
and population projections
Management Plan--Socioeconomic
Agriculture,Forest Service,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Thomas,Wayne,et al."Potential Barley Production in the Delta-
Clearwater Area of Alaska,"for Divis ion of Policy Development
and Planning,State of Alaska,1977.
e.MAP Working Papers
Goldsmith,Oliver S."Alaska Economic Multiplier Experiments with
the MAP Model,"1978.
"Comment on Relation of Nonpetroleum Revenues to Personal
Income in the HAP Model Simulation of Alpetco Impact,"1978.
"Evaluation of Economic Models and Model Changes,"1978.
"Important Economic Relationships in the Alaskan Macro-
economy,"1978.
"Local Government Fiscal Component of the MAP Statewide
Mode 1 ,"1977.
"Local Government Modeling,"1976.
"State Government Revenues,"1976.
"Types of Models and Analysis of Impact,"1978.
Kresge,David T.
Model,"1978.
"Economic Impacts and Multipliers in the MAP
-"Outlook for Changes in the Economic Status of Alaska
Natives,"1976.
"Outline of 1990 Projections Us ing MAP Statewide and
Regional Economic Models,"1975.
Logsdon,Charles."Alaska Regional Cost of Living Indexes,"1976.
Porter,Edward."The Economic Impact of Federal Energy Development
on the state of Alaska,"1977.
"Impact of Proposed Federal OCS Developments in the Gulf
of Alaska Area."1976.
Scott,Michael J."Estimating Economies of Scale in Alaskan
Industries."1978.
~,
P-8
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"MAP Expenditures Submodel for State Government Wages and
Salaries,"1976.
"MAP State Education Expendi tures Model,"1976,
"Oil Pipeline Disaster Impacts,"1976.
Seivert Daniel A.
Alaska,"1976.
"The Di stri bution of Earnings and Income in
r
r
r
-
"Projecting Manpower Requirements by Occupation Class,
Alaska:1976-1990,"1976.
"Projecting Manpower Supplies ,by Occupation Class,
Alaska:1976-1990,"1976.
Seiver,Daniel A.,and Jack Kruse."Who Migrates to Alaska?"1976.
P-9
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TIC
1424
A4
B44
1983
DATE I
--._-_.-------------
Before t.u~
Federal.Energy
Re~ul.att'i)ry
COllURiss ion
ISSUED TO
.J
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LIBRARY
HABITAT DIVISION
ALASKA DEPT.OF FISH &GAME
333 Raspberry Road
Anchorage,Alaska 99502