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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSusista feasibility Vol 1 Section 9 though 19 1983:1 I] 7')< /Y;;2S.s e h~3_ .....--Ln~t)1'1:;; SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FEASIBILITY REPORT VOLUME 1 ENGINEERING AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS SECTIONS 9 -19 FINAL DRAFT Prepared by: •ARLIS . Alaska Resources LIbrary &Information Services Anchorage Alaska l..---__ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY __---I SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FEASIBILITY REPORT VOLUME 1 -ENGINEERING AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS PAGE 1 -INTRODUCTION ....•....•••....•.•...•..•..••.••.•••••..•..•.••.•1-1 1.1 -Introduction ••.........••.............•.••...••••.....1-1 1.2 -Project Description .••...••••..••••..•••••..••.•..•••.1-2 1.3 -Objectives and Scope of Current Studies •••••.•.•••..••1-3 1.4 - Plan Formulation Selection Process •••••...••••...•••••1-4 1.5 Organization of Report •••...••...••••...•••••..•••..••1-6 1.6 -Principal Project Parameters •••.•••....••••...•••..•••1-9 3 -SCOPE OF WORK •...••••....•.•...•...........•.•.•••.....•....• lJ \1L~ 2 - SUMMAR Y '"III Q .. 2.1 -Scope of Work . 2.2 - Previous Studies ••..•••..••••••••••.••••••.••••••..••• 2.3 -Railbelt Load Forecasts ••••••.••••••••••••.•••••..•••• 2.4 -Railbelt System and Future Power Generation Options •••• 2.5 - Susitna Basin •....•....•.•.•••.•..••••..•.••....•..•.• 2.6 -Susitna Basin Development Selection ••••••••••••.•••••• 2.7 -Susitna Hydroelectric Development ••••••••••.•••••.•••• 2.8 -Watana Development ......•..•.•••.•.••••....•..••••..•. 2.9 - Devil Canyon Development •••.••••...••••••••••••••••••• 2.10 - Transmission Facilities •••••.••.....•••••••••••••••.•• 2.11 -Construction Cost Estimates and Schedules ••••••.•••••• 2.12 -Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures •••.•.••• 2.13 -Project Operation . 2.14 -Economic and Financial Evaluation ••.•••••.••••••••..•• 2.15 - Conclusions and Recommendations ••••••••••••••••••..••• 3.1 - Evolution of Plan of Study ..•••••..••••.•..••••••..••• 3.2 -Task 1:Power Studies •...•••.••••••.••••••...•••••.•• 3.3 -Task 2:Surveys and Site Facilities ••••••.•••••..•••. 3.4 - Task 3:Hydrology ...•...•....•••..••.••••.••..•••.••. 3.5 -Task 4: Seismic Studies •.••.••....••••••.•••••••..••• 3.6 -Task 5: Geotechnical Exploration .••••••....••••••.••• 3.7 -Task 6:Design Development ...•••..••••.•...•••••..••• 3.8 - Task 7:Environmental Studies •••.•.•••..••••••••.•••• 3.9 -Task 8:Transmission •...•••.•..•.••..•••••.•••.•••... 3.10 -Task 9:Construction Cost Estimates and Schedules •.•• 3.11 -Task 10:Licensing ••••.••..•••...••.••...••.....••...• 3.12 - Task 11:Marketing and Financing •••••••••••.•••••••.•• 3.13 -Task 12: Public Participation Program ••••••.•••••••••• 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-2 2-6 2-15 2-2'2 2-33 2-40 2-46 2-47 2-49 2-58 2-60 2-62 3-1 3-1 3-4 3-4 3-7 3-8 3-9 3-10 3-12 3-13 3-15 3-16 3-17 3-18 Note:Sections 1 to 8 are bound under separate cover. VOLUME 1 -ENGINEERING AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS (Cont'd) 4 -PREVIOUS STUDIES ••.•....•••.•.•.•..•••••.••.••••••••.•••••..• 4.1 -Early Studies of Hydroelectric Potential •.••••••...•••• 4.2 -U.S.Bureau of Reclamation -1953 Study••••••..•••••••• 4.3 - U.S.Bureau of Reclamation -1961 Study ••.•..••••..••• 4.4 - Alaska Power Administration -1974 ••..••••••.•••••••.. 4.5 - Kaiser Proposal for Development •..•..••••••••••••••.•.• 4.6 -U.S.Army Corps of Engineers-1977 &1979 Studies ••••••• 5 -RAILBELT LOAD FORECASTS ••••••••••.•...•••••....•.•••••••.••••• 5.1 -Scope of Studies ......................•..•............• 5.2 -Electricity Demand Profiles ••••••....•••••••.•••••••... 5.3 -Battelle Load Forecasts ••.•••.•.•.•••••...••••....•••• 6 -RAILBELT SYSTEM AND FUTURE POWER GENERATION OPTIONS ••..••••••• 6.1 - Basis of Study ••••••.•.•.•.•••••••..•••.•••••..•••.••• 6.2 -Existing System Characteristics •••••••...•..•••••••••:. 6.3 - Fairbanks -Anchorage Intertie ....•••••••••....•••••• 6.4 -Hydroelectric Options ••.•....•.•••••••••...••••••••.... 6.5 -Thermal Options -Development Selection ••...•.••••••••• 6.6 -Without Susitna Plan ..•.•.•••••.....•••••••...•..••••• 7 -SUSITNA BASIN ...•....•...•..•••.•.•••••.•••....•••••••..••.•• -Socioeconomics .••.•••.•••••.•.••••••••••....•••.•••••• -Recreational Resources •.•.~.•.••••••••••..••••••••••••• -Aesthetic Resources . -Cl imato logy 'II ••••••• -Hyd r 0 logy "l:f • lit a a • " ". -Regional Geology .•••••••••••••••••...•••••••••.••••••• -Se i sm i city ,.. -Water Use and Quality ..•••.•••••.••.••••••.••.••••.•.• -Fisheries Resources •.•••••...••••••..••••••••••••••••• -Wildlife Resources ...•••....•••..•...•.••.•.•••••••... - Botanical Resources •••••••••..•.•.••••••••.•••..•••••• -Historic and Archaeological Resources ••••••••.••..••••• 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11. --"-"--------7-.-1-d---b-a·A·Ei-[J·s-e -. 8 -SUSITNA BASIN DEVELOPMENT SELECTION •••••....•••••••.•••.•••••• 8.1 - Plan Formulation and Selection Methodology .•...•••••••• 8.2 -Damsite Selection . 8.3 -Site Screening . 8.4 -Engineering Layouts . 8.5 - Capital Cost ~.. 8.6 - Formulation of Susitna Basin Development Plans •••...•• 8.7 -Evaluation of Basin Development Plans ••••....•••••.••• 8.8 -Preferred Susitna Basin Development Plan ••••••••••••••• VOLUME 1 -ENGINEERING AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS (Cont'd) PAGE 11 -SELECTION OF ACCESS PLAN ••••.•.•••••....•••.....•••••.•..•••• 11.1 -Background .. 11.2 -Objectives ...•....•...•....••••.•.•........•..•.....•• 11.3 -Approach .. 11.4 -Corridor Selection and Evaluation ..••••••....•••••.•.•• 11.5 -Route Selection and Evaluatiun ••...•••••.•...••••••... 11.6 -Description of Basic Plans ......••••.....••••••.....•• 11. 7 -Ad d i t ion alP 1an s .. 11.8 -Evaluation Criteria ...••••.....••••••..•...••••••.•..• 11.9 - Evaluation of Access Plans .••..•••••••.•..•••••••.•••• 11.10-Identification of Conflicts ...••••.•..•..••••.•....••• 11.11-Comparison of Access Plans ...•••••••..•.••••••••.••••• 11.12-Recommended Access Plan ••••••.••••..•....•••••••..••••• 10 -SELECTION OF DEVIL CANYON GENERAL ARRANGEMENT ...••••..•••••..• 10.1 -Site Topography ...•••...••••.••••••..·.••••...•••..•••• 10.2 -Site Geology ...............•.......................... 10.3 - Geotechnical Considerations .••••.••••••....•••••..•••• 10.4 - Seismic Considerations ••....•••...••••••...••••...•••• 10.5 -Selection of Reservoir Level ..•••••..•••••....•••••..•• 10.6 -Selection of Installed Capacity •.••••••••••••••....••• 10.7 -Selection of Spillway Capacity •••...•••.•.•.•••••...••• 10.8 -Main Dam Alternatives •...••••.•.•••••...••••••..•••••• 10.9 - Diversion Scheme Alternatives ••••...•••••••.••.••••.•. 10.10 - Spillway Alternatives'•••....•••••...•••••••.•••••••..• 10.11 -Power Facilities Alternatives ••..••••.•...•••••••..••• 10.12 -General Arrangement Selection ••.•.••••••....•••••..••• 10.13 -Preliminary Review ...••.....•••••...••••••...••••••..• 10.14 - Final Review ...••.••........••...•••.....•...•....•••• 9 -SELECTION OF WATANA GENERAL ARRANGEMENT •.•••.•..••••..••••••• 9.1 -Site Topography ...•...••..•....•.•...•.•........•••... 9.2 -Site Geology .•.••.....••..•••...•.•...•••...•...•.•.•• 9.3 - Geotechnical Design Considerations ...•.•...••.•.••••.. 9.4 - Seismic Considerations .••.•..••...••...••••..•••..••••. 9.5 -Selection of Reservoir Levels .••..••.••.••••...••••.•• 9.6 -Selection of Installed Capacity ••••..••••...••••....••• 9.7 -Selection of the Spillway Design Flood .••....••••..•••. 9.8 -Main Dam Alternatives .••~••..•.•••.•••.•...••••..•••.. 9.9 - Diversion Scheme Alternatives .••.•••....•••...••••.•.•• 9.10 - Spillway Facilities Alternatives •.•••••....•••..•••..• 9.11 -Power Facilities Alternative ••••..•••••..••••...••••.• 9.12 -Selection of Watana General Arrangement ••..•••••..•••• 9.13 - Preliminary Review ..••••.•••••.••~••.•••••...•••••~.••• 9.14 Intermediate Review •.••..•••••.••••..•••••...•••••••••• 9.15 - Final Review .•.....••...••....•.•..........•......••.. 9-1 9-1 9-1 9-7 9-10 9-10 9-13 9-16 9-17 9-19 9-23 9-24 9-27 9-30 9-35 9-39 10-1 10-1 10-1 10-6 10-9 10-9 10-10 10-11 10-11 10-14 10-17 10-17 10-19 10-20 10-24 11-1 11-1 11-2 11-3 11-3 11-5 11-7 11-9 11-10 11-19 11-26 11-27 11-30 VOLUME 1 -ENGINEERING AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS (Cont'd) 12 -WATANA DEVELOPMENT .•••••••••...•••••••••..•.•••••••..•••••••• 12.1 -General Arrangement ..•..••••••••.•...•••••••••...•••.• 12 a 2 -Site Ac cess ..11III Q . 12.3 -Site Facilities •....•.••...a ••a ••••••••••••••••••••••• 12.4 - Diversion •••.•..•••...••.•.••••.•..••...•••.••.....••• 12.5 -Emergency Release Facilities •..•.•••••••••••.•••••••••• 12.6 -Comparison with Precedent Structures .••;••••••••••.•••• 12.7 -Relict Channel Treatment •••••......•••••••••••..••••••• 12.8 - Outlet Facilities •.•.•a ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 12.9 -Main Spillway . 12.10-Emergency Spillway ••••.•••••••••••.•..•.•••••••....••• 12.11-Intake ..a •••••••••••a •••••••••••••••••••••••••••a ••••• 12.12-Penstocks _....................•..............a 12.13-Powerhouse a ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 12.14-Reservoir __...............• 12.15-Tailrace a ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 12.16-Turbines and Generators ••••...•••••••••••..•.•••••••••• 12.17-Miscellaneous Mechanical Equipment •...•••••••••...••••• 12.18-Accessory Electrical Equipment •••••••••.•••••••••••.• 12.19-Switchyard Structures and Equipment •••••••••...••.••••• 12.20-Project Lands .........•.....................•......... PAGE 12-1 12-1 12-2 12-3 12-7 12-10 12-10 12-30 12-36 12-40 12-43 12-45 12-51 12-52 12-60 12-61 12-63 12-67 12-75 12-91 12-92 13 -DEVIL CANYON DEVELOPMENT .••••••••••••.•..•.•••••••••...••••••13-1 13.1 -General Arrangement....................................13-1 13.2 ~.Site Access 13-2 13.3 -Site Facilities ••••••..••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••13-3 13.4 -Diversion ............................................•13-7 13.5 -Arch Dam ....................................•..•......13-8 13.6 - Saddle Dam .............................•....•........•13-10 13.7 - Primary Outlet Facilities..............................13-14 13.8 -Main Spillway ...................•.....................13-16 13.9 -Emergency Spillway .•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••13-19 13.10-Devil Canyon Power Facil ities.................•.•..••••13-20 ______~.,.,___,~._l3.....~_..1~1~__._J.~._eD~s_t_o_c_k.s_._._._._._._..._...,.....,.•~.~.~._.•~.~.~.._..~._._.~..~.~.._._.~.~'L ....._.~.~.~.~.~.~._._.~._11-._.~._.~_13~_22 __.~.. 13.12-Powerhouse and Related Structures •••.••••••.•..•••••••• 13.13-Reservoir .............................•..............• 13.14-Tailrace Tunnel .................•..................... 13.15-Turbines and Generators ••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••• 13.16-Miscellaneous Mechanical Equipment .•...••••••••..••••• 13.17-Accessory Electrical Equipment ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 13.18-Switchyard Structures and Equipment •••••••••.•••••••••• 13.19-Project Lands ..........•..................•......•..•.•. 13-23 13-28 13-29 13-30 13-32 13-34 13-39 13-40 l II \- D U o u U 1 VOLUME 1 -ENGINEERING AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS (Cont'd) PAGE 14 -TRANSMISSION FACILITIES .•.•..••••.••....•.••.••.••.••.••.••••14-1 14.1 -Electric System Studies ••••••.••.•••••••.•••••••.•••••14-1 14.2 -Corridor Selection ..••.•.••.••.•••••••.•••••.•••••••..14-8 14.3 -Route Selection ........................•..............14-16 14.4 -Towers,Foundations and Conductors ••••.•••••.•••••.••••14-21 14.5 -Substations 14-24 14.6 - Dispatch Center and Communications ••••••.••••••••.••.••14-28 15 -PROJECT OPERATION •.••••.••..•.•••.•••••••.••.••.••••.••••.••••15-1 15.1 -Plant and System Operation Requirements •..••••••.••.•••15-1 15.2 -General Power Plant and System Railbelt Criteria •••••••15-1 15.3 -Economic Operation of Units •••.••.•••••.••.••.••••.•••15-3 15.4 - Unit Operation Reliability Criteria ••..•••••••••••••••r 15-5 15.5 - Dispatch Control Centers •••••••.•••••••••••••.••••••••15-6 15.6 -Susitna Project Operation ••••••••••••••••••••••.••.••••15-7 15.7 -Performance Monitoring ••••.••.••••••••••••••••••.•••••15-13 15.8 -Plant Operation and Maintenance •••.•••••.••.••••••••••15-14 16 -ESTIMATES OF COST ••.•.•.••.••.•••••••••••••.•.••.•••••••••••.16-1 16.1 -Construction Costs 16-1 16.2 -Mitigation Costs .•..••••••••••.•.•..•.•••••..•••.••••••16-6 16.3 -Operation,Maintenance and Replacement Costs ••••••.••••16-7 16.4 - Engineering and Administration Costs ••••••••••.••.•••••16-7 16.5 -Allowance for Funds Used During Construction ••.••.•••••16-9 16.6 -Escalation ..................•.......................••.16-9 16.7 -Cash Flow and Manpower Loading Requirements............16-9 16.8 - Contingency ..........................•..•.............16-10 17 -DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULES.........................................17-1 17.1 -Preparation of Schedules ••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••..17-1 17.2 -Watana Schedule ......•...•.............................17-1 17.3 - Devil Canyon Schedule••.••.••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••17-4 18 -ECONOMIC,MARKETING AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION..................18-1 18.1 -Economic Evaluation .•.•..•••••.•.••.••.••.••.••••••••.18-1 18.2 -Probability Assessment and Risk Analysis ••••••••.••..••18-15 18.3 -Marketing ...................•.....•...............••..18-28 18.4 -Financial Evaluation ••••.•••••.•••••.•••••••.•••.•••••18-31 18.5 -Financial Risk .0......................................18-37 19 -CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ••••••.••••••••.•••••.•••••••••19-1 19.1 - Conclusions .••........................•............•..19-1 19.2 -Recommendations .................•......•..............19-2 VOLUME 2 DESCRIPTION ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS (Sections 1 through 11) 3 4 5 6 7 Appendix A Al A2 A3 A4 A5 Appendix B Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 Appendix C Cl C2 C3 Append ix D PLATES HYDROLOGICAL STUDIES Water Resources Studies Probable Maximum Flood Study Reservoir Hydraulic Studies Reservoir and River Thermal Studies Climatic Studies for Transmission Line DESIGN DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Dam Selection Studies Watana General Arrangement Stud ies Devil Canyon Gener a1 Arrangement Stud ies Power Facilities Selection Studies Arch Dam Analysis -Devil Canyon Watana Dam Analysis Site Fac il it ies Watana Plant Simulation Studies COST ESTIMATES , Watana Hydroelectric Development - Estimate of Cost Devil Canyon Hydroelectric Development - Estimate of Cost Construction Manpower Forecasts COORDINATION AND PUBLIC PARTICIPATION '1 l JI 1 I j I , 1 1 1 II l ! 1 \ 'I ] 'J I)LIST OF TABLES f j IJ IJ lJ J ) ~J I II TABLE 1.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 7.16 7.17 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 TITLE Principal Project Parameters Historical Annual Growth Rates of Electric Utility Sales Annual Growth Rates in Utility Customers and Consumption Per Customer Utility Sales by Railbelt Regions Summary of Railbelt Electricity Projections Forecast Total Generation and Peak Loads -Total Railbelt Region ISER 1980 Railbelt Region Load and Energy Forecasts Used for Generation Planning Studies for Development Selection December 1981 Battelle PNL Railbelt Region Load and Energy Forecasts Used for Generation Planning Studies Total Generating Capacity Within the Railbelt System Generating Units Within the Railbelt -1980 Schedule of Planned Utility Additions (1980-1982) Operating and Economic Parameters for Selected Hydroelectric Plants Results of Economic Analyses of Alternative Generation Scenarios Summary of Thermal Generating Resource Plant Parameters/1982$ Alaskan Fuel Reserves Typical NOAA Cl imate Data Record Monthly Summary for Watana Weather Station Data Taken During January 1981 Summary of Cl imatological Data Recorded Air Temperatures at Talkeetna and Summit in OF Pan Evaporation Data Average Annual and Monthly Flow at Gage in the Susitna Basin Gold Creek Natural Flows . Watana Estimated Natural Flows Devil Canyon Estimated Natural Flows Peak Flows of Record Estimated Flow Peaks in Susitna River Maximum Recorded Ice Thickness on the Susitna River Suspended Sediment Transport in Susitna River Estimated Sediment Deposition in Reservoirs Water Appropriations Within One Mile of the Susitna River Hectares and Percentage of Total Area Covered by Vegetation/Habitat Types Summary of Earthquake Sources Considered in Ground Motion Studies Potential Hydroelectric Development Dam Crest and Full Supply Levels Capital Cost Estimate Summaries -Susitna Basin Dam Schemes -Cost in $Million 1980 Results of Screening Model LIST OF TABLES (Cont1d) TABLE 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 8.11 8.12 8.13 8.14 8.15 8.16 8.17 8.18 8.19 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 10.1 10.2 11.1 ---_.•._-----_._- 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12..5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.10 TITLE Information on the Devil Canyon Dam and Tunnel Schemes Tunnel Schemes Power Output and Average Annual Energy Capital Cost Estimate Summaries for Scheme 3 Tunnel Alternative Costs in $Million 1980 Susitna Environmental Development Plans Results of Economic Analyses of Susitna Plans Results of Economic Analyses of Susitna Plans -Low and High Load Forecast Basic Economic Data for Evaluation of Plans Economic Evaluation of Devil Canyon Dam and Tunnel Schemes and Watana/Devil Canyon and High Devil Canyon/Vee Plans Environmental Evaluation of Devil Canyon Dam and Tunnel Schemes Social Evaluation of Susitna Basin Development Schemes/Plans Energy Contribution Evaluation of the Devil Canyon Dam and Tunnel Schemes Overall Evaluation of Tunnel Scheme and Deyil Canyon Dam Scheme Environmental Evaluation of Watana/Devil Canyon and High Devil Canyon/Vee Development Plans Energy Contribution Evaluation of the Watana/Devil Canyon and High Devil Canyon/Vee Plans Overall Evaluation of the High Devil Canyon/Vee and Watana/Devil Canyon Dam Plans Combined Watana and Devil Canyon Operation Present Worth of Production Costs Design Data and Design Criteria for Final Review of Layouts Evaluation Criteria Summary of Comparative Cost Estimates Design Data and Design Criteria for Review of Alternative Layouts Summary of Comparative Cost Estimates Susitna Access Plans Identification of Conflicts Watana Peak Work Force and Camp/Vill age Design Population Rockfill and Earth Dams in Excess of 500 feet Summary of Design Data for Large Embankment Dams in Seismically Active Areas Dams in Seismic Areas General ized Surficial Stratigraphic Column Area 110 11 and Rel ict Channel Ring Follower Gates Preliminary Unit Data Assumed Properties for Static Analyses of Watana Dam Watana Dam - Crest Elevation and Freeboard Recent High Head Francis Turbines 1 \ i J ) l 'j i I I .1 1 I .j I I I -l I I ! I 1 J LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd) 13.1 Watana Peak Work Force and Camp/Village Design Population 13.2 Arch Dam Experience 13.3 Preliminary Compensation Flow Pump Data 13.4 Preliminary Unit Data 14.1 Power Transfer Requirements (MW) 14.2 Summary of Life Cycle Costs 14.3 Transmission System Characteristics 14.4 Technical,Economic and Environmental Criteria Used in Corridor Selection 14.5 Technical,Economic and Environmental Criteria Used in Corridor Screeni ng 14.6 Summary of Screening Results 14.7 EMS Alternatives I and II Comparative Cost Estimates 15.1 Energy Potential of Watana - Devil Canyon Developments for Different Reservoir Operating Rules 15.2 Minimum Acceptable Flows Below Watana Dam During Reservoir Filling 15.3 Turbine Operating Conditions TABLE 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.10 18.11 18.12 18.13 18.14 18.15 18.16 18.17 18.18 TITLE Summary of Cost Estimate Estimate Summary -Watan a Estimate Summary - Devil Canyon Mitigation Measures -Summary of Costs Incorporated in Construction Cost Estimates Real (Inflation Adjusted)Annual Growth in Oil Prices Domestic.Market Prices and Export Opportunity Values in Natural Gas Summary of Coal Opportunity Values Summary of Fuel Prices Used in the OGP5 Probability Tree Analysis Economic Analysis Susitna Project -Base Plan Summary of Load Forecasts Used for Sensitivity Analysis Load Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Discount Rate Sensitivity Analysis Capital Cost Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis -Updated Base Plan (January 1982)Coal Prices Sensitivity Analysis -Real Cost Escalation Sensitivity Analysis - Non-Susitna Plan with Chakachamna Sensitivity Analysis -Susitna Project Delay Summary of Sensitivity Analysis Indexes of Net Economic Benefits Railbelt Utilities Providing Market Potential List of Generating Plans Supplying Railbelt Region Forecast Financial Parameters 100%State Appropriation of Total Capital Costs ($5.1 billion in 1982 0011 ars) LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd) TABLE 18.19 18.20 18.21 18.22 18.23 TITLE $3 Billion (1982 Dollars)State Appropriation Scenario 7%Inflation and 10%Interest $2.3 Bi 11 ion (1982 Dollars)Minimum State Appropriation Scenario 7% Inflation and 10%Interest Financing Requirements -$Billion for $3.0 Billion State Appropriation Scenario Financing Requirements -$Billion for $2.3 Billion State Appropriation Scen ario Basic Parameters of Risk Generation Model i ) \ ,) J =) ) j ) -J ) ,] j 1 1-) II I i 1 H j ) LIST OF FIGURES I ' LJ [J [J ] r I Figure 1.1 1.2 1.3 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 7.16 7.17 7.18 7.19 7.20 Titl e Loc at i on Map Plan Formulation and Selection Methodology Pl anning Approach Damsites Proposed by Others Historical Total Railbelt Utility Sales to Final Customers ISER 1980 Energy Forecasts Used for Development Selection Studies December 1981 Battelle Load and Energy Forecasts Use for Generation Pl ann ing St ud ies Loc at i on Map Formulation Plans Incorporating Non-Susitna Hydro Generation Selected Alternative Hydroelectric Sites Generation Scenario Incorporating Thermal and Alternative Hydropower Developments -Medium Load Forecast Formulation of Plans Incorporating All-Thermal Generation Alternative Generation Scenario -Battelle Medium Load Forecast Data Collection Stations Average Annual Flow Distribution Within the Susitna River Basin Monthly Average Flows in the Susitna River at Gold Creek Flow Duration Curve Mean Monthly Inflow at Watana Pre-Project Flow Duration Curve Mean Monthly Inflow at Devil Canyon Pre-Project Annual Flow Duration Frequency Curves -Susitna River at Gold Creek 1:50 Year Annual Flood Inflow Hydrograph -Susitna River at Watana Dams ite 1:10,000 Year Flood Inflow Hydrograph -Susitna River at Watana Damsite Probable Maximum Flood Inflow Hydrograph -Susitna River at Watana Dams ite Suspended Sediment Transport -Susitna River at Selected Station Regional Geology Talkeetna Terrain Model and Section 1943 Earthquake Geology Map Location and Territorial Boundaries of Wolf Packs -1980 Division of Nelchina Caribou Herd Ranges Relative Densities of Moose -November 1980 Employment,Population and Per Capita Personal Income in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and Valdez-Whittier-Chitina Census Division,1979-1980 Communities in the Vicinity of Susitna Basin Existing Structures Land Use Aggregations LIST OF FIGURES (Cont'd) 10.1 Devil Canyon Geologic Map 10.2 Devil Canyon Diversion -Headwater Elevation Tunnel Diameter 10.3 Devil Canyon Diversion - Total Cost Tunnel Diameter 11.1 Access Plan Selection Methodology 11.2 Pl an 2 11.3 Pl an 4 11.4 Plan 6 11.5 Pl an 8 11.6 Plan 10 11.7 Plan 11 8.1 Susitna Basin Plan Formulation and Selection Process 8.2 Profile Through Alternative Sites 8.3 Mutually Exclusive Development Alternatives 8.4 Schematic Representation of Conceptual Tunnel Schemes 8.5 Generation Scenario with Susitna Plan El.3 -Medium Load Forecast 8.6 Generation Scenario with Susitna Plan E2.3 -Medium Load Forecast 8.7 Generation Scenario with Susitna Plan E3.1 -Medium Load Forecast J ) 1 '1 .1 1 1 .J 1 1 ] 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 TitleFigure 9.1 Watana Geologic Map 9.2 Watana Relict Channel -Top of Bedrock 9.3 Mean Response Spectra at Devil Canyon and Watana Sites for Safety Ev aluation 9.4 Watana Reservoir -Dam Crest Elevation/Present Worth of Product Costs 9.5 Watan a Diversion -Headwater El evat ion/Tunne 1 Di ameter 9.6 Watana Diversion -Up~tream Cofferdam Costs 9.7 Watana Diversion Tunnel and Cofferdam Cost/Tunnel Diameter 9.8 Watana Diversion - Total Cost/Tunnel Diameter 12.1 Watana Diversion - Total Facility Rating Curve 12.2 Watana Reservoir Filling Sequence ··--1-Z-.-3-···---Watana-ReseY'-vQil"Emel"genc.y ..Dr-awdown--.----------------___. 12.4 Watana Comparison of Grain Size Curves for Various Core Materials 12.5 Watana Required Grain Size Curves Main Dam 12.6 Watana -Composite Grain Size Curve -Borrow Site D 12.7 Earthquake Time History 12.8 Watana - Unit Output 12.9 Watana - Turbine Performance Cat Rated Head) 12.10 Francis Turbines Specific Speed Experience Curve for Recent Units 13.1 Devil Canyon Diversion Rating Curve 13.2 Devil Canyon - Unit Output 13.3 Devi l Canyon - Turbine Performance (at Rated Head) 1 LIST OF FIGURES (Cont'd) 1 I) (J [] fl lJ U LJ J ] I Figure 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.10 14.11 14.12 14.13 14.14 14.15 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 16.1 16.2 16.3 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.10 18.11 18.12 Title Railbelt 345 kV Transmission System Single Line Diagram Alternative Transmission Line Corridors Southern Study Area Alternative Transmission Line Corridors Central Study Area Al ternat Ive Transmission Line Corridors Northern Study Area Anchorage to Fairbanks -Proposed Transmission Line Route X-Frame Guyed Steel Tower Transmission Tower Foundation Concepts Willow Switching Station -General Layout University Substation -General Layout Ester and Knik Arm Stations -General Layout Stations Typical Elevation -Low Level Bus Arrangement Energy Management System,Alternative I,System Configuration Energy Management System,Alternative II,System Configuration Willow System Control Center,Functional Layout Energy Management System,Alternative I,Configuration Block Diagram Typical Load Variation in Alaska Railbelt System Frequency Analysis of Average Annual Energy for Susitna Developments Watana - Unit Efficiency (at Rated Head) Devil Canyon - Unit Efficiency (at Rated Head) Watana Plant Simulation -December 2000 Watana Development Cumulative and Annual Cash Flow January 1982 Do 11 ars Devil Canyon Development Cumulative and Annual Cash Flow January 1982 Do 11 ars Susitna Hydroelectric Project Cumulative and Annual Cash Flow Entire Project January 1982 Dollars Probability Tree -System with Alternatives to Susitna Probability Tree -System with Susitna Susitna Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis -Long Term Costs vs Cumulative Probability Susitna Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis - Cumulative Probability vs Net Benefits Risk Analysis Study Methodology Elements of the Risk Analysis Structural Relationship for Handling Risk Activity Combinations, Damage Scenarios and Criterion Values Cumulative Probability Distribution for Watana Project Cost Cumulative Distribution of Devil Canyon Costs Cumulative Probability Distribution for Susitna Hydroelectric Project Historical Water Resources Project Cost Performance (40 Projects) Comparison of Susitna Risk Results with Historical Water Resources Project Cost Performance (48 Projects) LIST OF FIGURES (Cont'd) Figure 18.13 18.14 18.15 18.16 18.17 18.18 18.19 18.20 18.21 18.22 18.23 18.24 18.25 18.26 18.27 18.28 18.29 18.30 18.31 18.32 18.33 Title Watana Schedule Distribution Exclusive of Regulatory Risks Watana Schedule Distribution Including the Effect of Regulatory Risks Cumulative Probability Distribution for Days of Reduced Energy Delivery to Anchorage Cumulative Probability Distribution for Days per Year with No Susitna Susitna Energy Delivery to Fairbanks Railbelt Region - Generating and Transmission Facilities Service Areas of Railbelt Utilities Relative Distribution of Energy Supply Generating Facilities,Net Generation for Types of Fuel and Relative Mix of Generating Technology -Railbelt Utilities 1980 Energy Demand and Deliveries from Susitna Energy Pricing Comparisons -1994 System Costs Avoided by Developing Susitna Energy Pricing Comparisons -2003 Energy Cost Comparison -100 Percent Debt Financing and 7 Percent Inflation Energy Cost Comparison -State Appropriations $3 Billion (1982 dollars) Energy Cost Comparison - $2.3 Billion (1982 dollars)-Minimum State Appropr iat ions Energy Cost Comparison -Pricing Restricted 94/95 and 03/04 Energy Cost Comparison Meeting SB/646 Requirements with 100 Percent Financing Energy Cost Comparison Meetings SB/646 Requirements With $3.0 Billion Appropriation Bond Financing Requirements Debt Service Cover Watana Unit Costs as Percent of Best Thermal Option in 1996 Cumulative Net Operating Earnings by 2000 J ) 1 ~'l oJ ] ~) J J ) ] ) ) ] ] J ] 1 r [J u [J r ) lIST OF PLATES -VOLUME 1 SECTION 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 SECTION 9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10 9.11 SECTION 10 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 SECTION 11 11.1 11.2 Devil Canyon -Hydro Development -Fill Dam Watan a -Hydro Development -Fill Dam Watana - Staged Fill Dam High Devil Canyon -Hydro Development Susitna III -Hydro Development Vee -Hydro Development Denali and Maclaren -Hydro Development Preferred Tunnel -Scheme 3 - Plan View Preferred Tunnel -Scheme 3 -Sections Watana -Arch Dam Alternatives Watana -Alternative Dam Axes Watana -Preliminary Schemes Watan a -Scheme WP1 - Pl an Watana -Scheme WP3 -Sections Watan a -Scheme WP2 and WP3 Watana -Scheme WP2 -Sections Wat an a -Sc heme WP4 -Pl an Watana -Scheme WP4 -Sections Watana -Scheme WP3A Watana -Scheme WP4A Devil Canyon -Scheme DC1 Devil Canyon -Scheme DC2 Devil Canyon -Scheme DC3 Devil Canyon -Scheme DC4 Devil Canyon -Selected Scheme Alternative Access Corridors Alternative Access Routes LIST OF PLATES -VOLUME 3 WATANA Plate No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 ---_._._-~_.- 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 DEVIL CANYON 40 41 42 Title Railbelt Area Reservoir Pl an Site Layout General Arrangement Hydrological Data - Sheet 1 Hydrological Data - Sheet 2 Simulated Reservoir Operation Main Dam - Pl an Main Dam -Sections Main Dam - Grouting and Drainage Diversion -General Arrangement Diversion -Sections Diversion - Intake Structures Main Spillway -General Arrangement Main Spillway - Control Structure Main Spillway -Chute Sections Main Spillway - Flip Bucket Outlet Facilities -General Arrangement Outlet Facilities -Gate Structure Emergency Spillway Emergency Release -Sections Downstream Portals - Plan and Sections Power Facilities ~General Arrangement Power Facilities -Access Power Facilities - Plan and Sections Power Intake -Sections Powerhouse - Plans Powerhouse - Plans Transformer Gallery - Plan and Sections Surge Chamber and Tailrace -Sections Electrical Legend p~w~rJ:lQJtS_e =SjngkLtn~Qiagram ___ Switchyard -Single Line Diagram Block Schematic Computer Aided Control System Access Plan -Recommended Route General Layout -Site Facilities Main Construction Camp Site Village and Town Site Watana and Devil Canyon -Construction Camp Details Reservoir Pl an Site Layout General Arrangement ) .j 1 -) ] ) ~~ ~._) J J ) ) 1 ) :J ) 'J 1 ) 1 [1 [" \) '1 lJ () \) u U I~J LIST OF PLATES -VOLUME 3 Pl ate No. 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULES 75 76 Title Hydrological Data - Sheet 1 Hydrological Data - Sheet 2 Simulated Reservoir Operation Dams - Plan and Profile Main Dam -Geometry Main Dam -Crown Section Main Dam -Sections Main Dam - Thrust Blocks Main Dam - Grouting and Drainage Main Dam -Outlet Facilities Saddle Dam -Sections Diversion -General Arrangement Diversion -Sections Main Spillway -General Arrangement Main Spillway - Control Structure Main Spillway -Chute Section Emergency Spillway -General Arrangement Emergency Spillway -Sections Power Facilities -General Arrangement Power Facilities -Access Power Facilities - Plan and Sections Power Intake -Sections Powerhouse Plans Powerhouse -Sections Tr an sformer Gall ery - Pl an and Sections Surge Chamber and Tailrace -Sections Tailrace Portal - Plan and Sections Powerhouse -Single Line Diagram Switchyard -Single Line Diagram General Layout -Site Facilities Main Construction Camp Site Temporary Vi 11 age Watana Construction Schedule Devil Canyon Construction Schedule j LIST OF REFERENCE REPORTS The following reports and documents were prepared during the course of the study program.Specific references in the text of the report are cited and listed separately by section;they should not be confused with the following list. I1 I J (J [J [) u [J IJ I J Number Rl R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 RIO Rll R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30 R31 R32 R33 R34 R35 R36 R37 Report Plan of Study Plan of Study, Revision 1 Pl an of Study, Revision 2 Plan of Study, Revision 3 Forecasting Peak Electrical Demands for Alaska's Railbelt Closeout Report,Review of ISER Work Task 1 Termination Report,September 1980 Field Reconnaissance of Reservoir Area - Timber Report Marketability and Disposal Study for Reservo ir Area Aerial Photography and Photogrammetric Mapping Control Network Survey Report Hydrographic Surveys Field Data Collection and Processing Gl ac ier St ud ies Regional Flood Studies Hydraulic and Ice Studies Reservoir Sedimentation River Morphology Review of Available Materials Fie 1d Data Index Water Quality -Annual Report -1980 Water Quality -Annual Report -1981 Water Quality -Interpretation -1981 Ice Observations -1980 Processed Climatic Data for Six Weather Stations (6 vol umes) Interim Report on Seismic Studies Final Report on Seismic Studies 1980 Geotechnical Report (Superceded by R29) 1980-81 Geotechnical Report OGP Data Development Selection Report Review of Previous Studies and Reports Closeout Report February 1981 Tunnel Alternative Report July 1981 Evaluation of Arch Dam at Devil Canyon Site 1981 Upper Limit Capital Cost Estimate,July 1981 Scour Hole Development Downstream of High Head Dams 1980 Summary Environmental Report Prepared By Acres Acres Acres Acres WCC Acres Acres R&M R&M R&M R&M R&M R&M R&M/U.of Al aska R&M R&M/Acres R&M R&M Acres R&M R&M R&M R&M R&M R&M wce wce Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres TES \ ) LIST OF REFERENCE REPORTS (Cont'd)J J } ) ) Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Prepared By TES TES TES TES TES TES/Acres Acres TES TES ADF&G ADF&G TES TES TES TES TES TES TES Acres TES R&M Acres Acres Acres Acres/TES TES TES TES J 1 -) j 1 J ---~".__._.__~-~--------------~----_..__- ) ) --j--- -..•. J ) L Report Environmental Report - Fish Ecology -1980 Environmental Report -Plant Ecology -1980 Environmental Report -Big Game -1980 Environmental Report - Birds and Non Game Mammals -1980 Environmental Report -Furbearers -1980 Environmental Report -Land Use Analysis -1980 Environmental Report -Socioeconomics -1980 Environmental Report -Cultural Resources -1980 Fish and Wildlife Mitigation Policy - Revised Instream Flow Study Plan Draft Fishery Mitigation Plan Draft Wildlife Mitigation Plan Phase 1 Report - Fish Ecology Phase 1 Report -Big Game Phase 1 Report -Plant Ecology Phase 1 Report - Bird and Non-Game Mammal s Phase 1 Report -Furbearers Phase 1 Report -Land Use Phase 1 Report -Socioeconomics Phase 1 Report -Cultural Resources Phase 1 Report -Recreation Sociocultural Report Environmental An alys i s of AlternatiVe Access Pl an Access Planning Study Access Route Selection Report Electric System Studies Transmission Line Corridor Screening Report Transmission Line Selected Route Switching Stations and Substations -Single Line Diagrams Agency Consultation Report ----lnit-i-al--Version-Rrelim-in aryLicensing----------- Documentation,April 1980 Preliminary Licensing Documentation -2nd Version November 1981 Status of Susitna Basin Water Rights Project Overview Report,2nd Draft Economic Marketing and Financial Evaluation Susitna Risk Analysis Number R38 R39 R40 R41 R42 R43 R44 R45 R46 R47 R48 R49 R50 R51 R52 R53 R54 R55 R56 R57 R58 R59 RoO R61 R62 R63 R64 R65 R66 R67 -------------------R6g---- R69 R70 R71 -R72 R73 [J lJ lJ [J I I I I 9 -SELECTION OF WATANA GENERAL ARRANGEMENT This section describes the evolution of the general arrangement of the Watana project,which,together with the Devil Canyon project,com- prises.the development plan selected as part of Section 8. This sec- tion also describes the site topography,geology, and seismicity of the Watana site relative to the design and arrangement of the various site facilities.The process by which reservoir operating levels and the installed generating capacity of the power facilities were established is presented,together with the means of handling floods expected during construction and subsequent project operation. The main components of the Watana development are as follows: -Main dam; -Diversion facilities; - Spillway facilities; -Outlet facilities; -Emergency release facilities;and -Power facilities. A number of alternatives are available for each of these components and they can obviously be combined in a number of ways.The following par- agraphs describe the various components and methodology for the prelim- inary,intermediate,and final screening and review of alternative gen- eral arrangement of the components,together with a brief description of the selected scheme. A detailed description of the various project components is given in Section 12. 9.1 -Site Topography The project site is located in a broad U-shaped valley at river mile 184,approximately 2.5 miles upstream of the confl uence of Tsusena Creek with the Susitna River.The river at the site is relatively wide,although turbulent.On the right bank,the valley rises at an approximate slope of 2H:1V from river level at Elevation 1450 for approximately 600 feet,then gradually flattens to a maximum elevation of 2350 between the Susitna River and Tsusena Creek.The left bank ri ses more steeply from the ri ver for about 450 feet at a slope of 1.4H:1V,then flattens to 3H:1V or less to approximate Elevation 2600. 9.2 -Site Geology A detailed description of the geology and site investigations at the Watana site is given in the 1980-1981 Geotechnical Report (1).The following is a brief summary of the findings presented in ·the Geotech- nical Report. 9-1 (a)Geologic Conditions A summary of site overburden and bedrock conditions is presented in the following paragraphs.A geologic map of the damsite area is shown in Figure 9.1. (i)Overburden Overburden thickness in the damsite area ranges from 0 up to 80 feet in localized areas.On the lower slopes,the overburden consists primarily of talus.The upper areas of the abutments near the top of the slope are deposits of glacial tills,alluvium,and talus.Subsurface investiga- tions show the contact between the overburden and bedrock to be relatively unweathered. The depth of the ri ver all uvi um beneath the proposed dam averages about 80 feet and consists of sand,silt,coarse gravels,ard boulders. (ii)Bedrock Lithology The damsite is primarily underlain by an intrusive dioritic body which varies in composition fro~granodiorit~to quartz di orite to di or tt e.The texture is massi ve and the rock is hard,competent,and fresh except wi thi n sheared and altered zones.These rocks have peen intruded by ~afic lind felsic dikes which are generally 9D1Y a few feet tgick. The contacts are healed and competent.The rock immedi- ately downstream from the damsite is an andesite porphyry. This rock is medium to dark gray to green and contains quartz diorite inclusions.The contact zone of the ande- site with the diorite is generally weqthered and fractured up to 10 to 15 feet above the contact. (iii)Bedrock Structures There are two major and two minor joint sets at the site. Set I,which is the most prominent set,strikes 320 0 and dips to 80 0 NE to vertical.This set is found throughout the damsite and parallels the general structural trend in the regi on.Set I has a subset,whiGh strikes 290 0 to 300 0 with a dip of 75 0 NE.Thfs subset is local ized in the downstream area near where the diversion tunnel por- tals are proposed.This subset also parallels the shear zones in the downstream area of the site.Set II trends northeast to east and dips vertically.··This set is best developed in the upstream portion of the damsite area, but is 1oca11y promi nent in the downs tr earn areas.Sets III and IV are minor sets but can be locally well 9-2 1 I ) .) .) l ) .) ]' j 1 l 1 ) 1 ! l I I l j developed. Set III trends N-S with variable dips ranging from 40°east to 65°west,while Set IV trends 090° with subhorizontal dips.Set III forms numerous open joints on the cl iff faces near the "Fi ngerbuster,II and several shear zones parallel this orientation.Set IV appears to have developed from stress relief from glacial unloading and/or valley erosion. r \.J The average spacing of Joint Sets I and 6 to 12 inches,respectively. Sets III and IV is quite variable few inches to several feet. - Shears and Fracture Zones a nd II is 1 to 2 feet The spacing of Joint and can range from a (I J [i ,.....1 I ' I Iu (J tJ I J Several shears,fracture zones,and alteration zones are present at the site (Figure 9.1).For the most part, they are small and discontinuous.All zones greater than 10 feet in width have been delineated on the geologic map (Figure 9.1). Shears are defined as having breccia,gouge,and/or slickenslides indicating relative movement.Two forms of shearing are found at the site.The first type is found only in the diorite and is characterized by breccia of sheared rock that has been rehealed into a matrix of very fine grained andesite/diorite.These shear zones have hi gh RQDs and the rock is fresh and hard.The second type is common to all rock types and consists of unhealed brecca and/or gouge.These shear zones are soft,fri- ab1e,and often have secondary mi nera 1i zat i on of carbon- ate and chlorite showing slickenslides.These zones are generally less than 1 foot wide. Fracture zones are also common to a11 rock types and range from 6 inches to 30 feet wide (generally less than 10 feet).These zones are closely spaced joints that are often iron oxide stained or carbonate coated.Where exposed,the zones trend to form topographic lows. Alterati on zones are areas where hydrothermal sol uti on have caused the chemical breakdown of the feldspars and mafic minerals.The degree of alteration encountered is highly variable across the site.These zones are rarely seen in outcrop as they are easily eroded into gull ies, but were encountered in all the boreholes.The transi- tion between fresh and altered rock is gradational.The zones may range to 20 feet thick although are usually less than 5 feet. 9-3 (b)Structural Features The Watana site has several significant geologic features consist- ing of shears,fractures and alteration zones described previous- ly (Figure 9.1). The two most prominent areas have been named the "Fi ns" and the "Fingerbuster."The "Fins"is located on the north bank of the river upstream from the diversion tunnel intake.It is an area approximately 400-feet wide,characterized by three major north- west trendi ng zones of sheari ng and a lterat i on that have eroded into steep gu 11 ies .These a lterat ion zones are separated by i n- tact rock bands (ribs)5 to 50 feet wide.The 20-foot-wide up- stream zone of the series coincides with the diorite/andesite porphyry contact.The other two zones,approximately 55 and 30 feet wide,are filled with severely altered rock.This zone trends 310°with a near vertical dip.The extension of the zone has been extrapolated to extend northwestward outcroppng in Tsusena Creek. The "Fingerbuster"is located downstream from the damsite and is exposed in a 40-foot-wide deep talus-filled gully along the ande- site porphyry/diorite contact (Figure 9.1).The rock is severely weathered with closely spaced joints trending parallel to Set I (330°)and Set III (0°).Slickensides indicate vertical displace- ment.The extens ion of thi s zone to the south is based on a strong north-south topographic lineament.Because of the lack of exposure,its location and extent have been approximated. A prominent alteration zone was encountered on the south bank where a drill hole encountered approximately 200 feet of hydro- thermally altered rock.Although core recovery in this boring was good,the quality of rock was relatively poor (Figure 9.1). (c)Ground Water Conditions The groundwater regime in the bedrock is confined to movement alongfracturesand joints.The water table is a subdued replica ....of --the--surface-to·pographY:---Water revels on -t-fie--r i ghr-ilbulmen1: were deep,ranging from about 110 to 280 feet.Ground water con- diti ons on the south abutment are compl icated because of the apparent continuous thick permafrost resulting in a perched water table near surface and a deep table below the frost. (d)Permafrost Conditions Permafrost conditions exist on the north-facing slopes (left bank) of the damsite area.Measurements indicate that permafrost exists to a depth of 200 to 300 feet.Temperature measurements show the permafrost to be "war m"(withi n 1°C of freezi ng).No permafrost was found on the north abutment but sporadic areas of frost can be expected. f] fi l \J I) i I IJ I,) (e)Permeability The rock permeability does not vary s tqnt t icant ly within the site area;generally ranging between 1 x 10- 4 em/sec to 1 10- 6 em/sec.The permeabil ity is controll ed by a degree of fractures withi n the rock,with the higher permeabi 1ity occurri ng in the more sheared and fractured zone.Permeabilities tend to decrease with depth. (f)Reservoir Geology The topography of the Watana Reservoir and adjacent slopes is characterized by a narrow V-shaped stream-cut valley superimposed on a broad U-shaped glacial valley.Overburden masks much of the bedrock especially in the lower and uppermost reaches of the res- er voi r, The lower P9rtions of the Watana reservoir are predominantly cov- ered by a veneer of glacial till with scattered outwash deposits. On the south si de of the Sus itna Ri ver,the Fog Lakes area is characterized by a fluted ground moraine surface.Upstream in the Watana Creek area,a broad flat plain is mantled with glacial till and semi-consolidated Tertiary sediments.These are predominantly stratified,poorly graded,fine sands,and silts with some clays. The river valleys contain significant amounts of alluvial deposits and reworked outwash. Ice disintegration features such as kames and eskers have been observed in the river valley. A non-conformable contact between argillite and the diorite pluton at the damsite area was mapped approximately three miles upstream from the dams i te ,Semi -conso 1i dated,Tert iary age sedimentary rocks and volcanics are present just downstream from the conflu- ence of metabasalt flows with thin interbeds of metachert,argil- lite,marble,and metavolcaniclastic rocks.The rocks between Jay Creek and Oshetna Creek are metamorphic amphi bol ite and mi nor amounts of greenschist and foliated diorite. The mai n structura 1 feature of the Watana Reservoir is the Ta 1- keetna Thrust Fault whi ch trends northeast-southwest.The Ta 1- keetna Thrust Fault crosses the Susitna River approximately eight miles upstream from the dams i te.This fault has been studied in detail as part of the seismic studies,and has been determined to be inactive (2). (g)Construction Material Investigations Extensive investigations have been conducted both prior to and during the current studies to identify quantities of suitable ma- terials for the construction of an embankment dam and for concrete aggregates.Detailed discussion of-these borrow and quarry sites is presented in the 1980-81 Geotechnical Report (1). 9-5 (i)Rock Fill Material The source for rockfill material is Quarry A,which com- prises the rock knob immediately adjacent to the left abut- ment.The rock in Quarry A is di orite and andesite.The rock is generally hard,durable and fresh,and is suitable for use as rockfill in the dam. (ii)Core Material Two sources have been identified for the site core material and are desi gnated as Borrow Site 0 and Borrow Si te H. Borrow Site 0 is located immediately northwest of the dam- site on the north bank.The upper few feet of material comprise tundra,topsoil,and boulders,which is underlain by thick glacial tills composed of gravelly silty sands with some clay.An alternative source of core material, designated Site H,is located approximately 7 miles down- stream from the damsite on the south bank of the river. (iii)Filter Material Borrow Site E has been ident ifi ed as a pr imary source of material for filter and transition zones of the embankment. This area is located at the confluence of the Tsusena Creek and the Susitna Ri ver approximately 2.5 mi les downstream from the damsite.The area is covered by about 2 feet of organics and silt underlain by a few feet thick layer of silty sand to clean sand and a thick layer of sandy and gravelly material exists.Sufficient quantities are avail- able in this borrow site to meet the project requirements for filter materials and will also be a major source of gravel materials for the shells of the dam. (iv)Gravels and Cobbles for Shells To identify additional sources of gravel for the shells, seismic refraction survey investigations were performed ---~----------------~-------b()1;h-l:Jp str earn anddowns-tream--fr om~-t-he---dams-ite --i n-the Susitna River valley.These investigations confirmed that sufficient quantities of granual material are available for use in the supporting shell zones of the dam to supplement Borrow Site E.Available data indicates that the grain size distribution of these materials will be similar to that from Borrow Site E, with probably a higher percentage of coarser material. (v)Concrete Aggregate The material available from Borrow Sites E, C, F,and the riverbed alluvium is suitable for use as coarse and fine aggregate for concrete.Processi ng wi 11 be required to ) ! ) -J I) 1 1 I_._-_....- ·1 I I} I)I 11 () produce desired gradations.The coarser particles are rounded and petrographic analyses have indicated the mate- rial to be of good quality.Sufficient quant t t i es are available within the identified sources. 9.3 - Geotechnical Design Lonsiderations This section deals with the geotechnical aspects of design of the dam and other major structures at the Watana site. 11 \ I\J ,) \J (a) (b) Main Dam Excavation and Foundation Treatment As discussed previously,the riverbed alluvium ranges up to ap- proximately 80 to 100 feet in depth.The character of this mater- ial has not yet been well defined and its stability during a strong earthquake event is questionable.The overburden material on the abutments is relatively thin,except for gullies and pock- ets.Most of this material is frozen and will become unstable when thawed and is therefore unsuitable for the dam foundation. Localized sheared and altered zones beneath the proposed dam will not adversely affect the dam foundation.Potential seepage through these zones will be eliminated by a grout curtain cutoff combined with a downstream drainage system. Although the two major geologic structures at the site,the "Fins" on the upstream si de and the "Fi ngerbuster"on the downstream side,have had an influence on the overall project layout,they do not directly affect the dam at its proposed location. Extensi ve permafrost is present on the south bank and sporadic permafrost may be encountered on the north bank. This permafrost is within 1°C of freezing.Thawing of the permafrost and grouting of the foundation will be required. Cofferdams and Dewatering Because of the pervious nature of the thick ri verbed deposits, some form of cutoff will probably be required beneath both the up- stream and downstream cofferdams to control seepage. A sl urry trench cement bentonite cutoff constructed from an initial rock- fill/gravel closure dike is currently proposed.Such a cutoff is unlikely to be fully effective and continuous dewatering will be required to handle seepage through the cutoff until the dam con- struction is above the diversion stage pool level. Further exploration is necessary in the riverbed to better define the alluvial materials at the cofferdam sites and provide data for the final design. 9-7 (c)Underground Structures The rock conditions at the Watana site are suitable for the con- structi on of tunnel s and underground caverns.The 1 ocati on and the orientation of these structures is influenced by the orienta- tion and location of rock discontinuities.Permafrost conditions will not have any major adverse impact except where thawing may be required for grouting. The RQD values indicate that 85 percent of the rock is of a good to excellent category.The remaining 15 percent represents poor qua1 ity rock associ ated with rock di scontt nuit tes.The major joint sets at the Watana site are oriented at N40W (Set I)and N45E (Set II).Other four joint sets are minor.The major shear and fracture zones al so parall el these general trends.The most favorable orientations for the tunnels and the large underground caverns are with their long axis perpendicular to the major joint sets.These factors have been a major consideration in selection of the alignments of the tunnels and major caverns to achieve max- imum stability and minimum support requirement. Although little is known at this time about the insitu stress re- gime at the site,the general tectonic stress regime within the region is in a compression mode.Conventional rock bolt support is generally considered adequate inmost areas with spans less than 40 feet.For larger spans and in areas of poor quality rock, the support requirements have been determi ned on a case-by-case basis.In the case of large span openings,intersection of nearby Vertical and subhorizontal joints can create unstable blocks in the crown.Allowances have been made for the use of support mea- sures such as shotcrete,welded wire fabric,and concrete lining in areas of potentially poor rock quality and in water carrying tunnels under high head (such as penstocks). Although the rock mass is fairly impervious,intersection of rock discontinuities may cause ground water seepage and high pore pres- sures during operation. ---+unne-l-exeava-tio n-ean-be-per-formed-u si-ng -either-convent-i-ona-ldri-ll -- and blast techniques or high production mechanical excavating equipment.Sufficient information is not available at this time to make this decision,and for feasibil ity assessment purposes, conventional drill and blast methods have been assumed. The spaci ng between long tunnels has been set at 2.5 times the diameter of the largest tunnel.The spacing between the major caverns has been set such that a pillar thickness of 1.5 times the span of the larger cavern is maintained. ) I 1 l ] .j r1 J l 9-8 I j l (d)Stability of Soil and Rock Slopes In most areas the excavation slopes will be in rock.The slopes in the overburden ha ve been determined based on soil properties, ground water table,and the height of the slope.In general, slopes in overburden will not be steeper than 2H:IV below the water table and 1.5H:1V above the water tabl e. A bench of ade- quate wi dth wi 11 be provt ded at the overburden-rock contact to accommodate any local slumping or slope failure and to intercept and dispose of ground/seepage water.Flatter slopes may be required where frozen ground may become unstable during thawing. The cut slopes in rock will be controlled by the local joint dips and orientations.Major joint set dips are near vertical and where such joints control slopes,they will be cut at IH:IOV,with fl atter slopes where necessary to ensure stabil i ty ,In genera 1, slopes will be cut back to the dip of the controlling joint set or flatter.Locally,rock bolting or similar support techniques and drainage systems will be provided to stabilize individual blocks, ensure overall stability of rock slopes and maintain safe working conditions. I )Ii LJ I) (e) (f) Use of Excavated Rock in Dam Construction Since most of the rock excavation will be within the diorite and andesite,the quality of rock will be acceptable for use as rock- fill.Poor quality or weathered rock will not be acceptable fill. The use of rockfill in the dam will be limited to the downstream shell,and in zones or rip-rap material. Relict Channel A deep bedrock depress ion exi sts on the north bank of the ri ver extendi ng from about 2,500 feet west of Deadman Creek northwest toward Tsusena Creek.The depth to bedrock is as much as 400 feet below the surface and the reservoir 1eve l.The overburden con- sists of several sequences of glacial deposits,lake sediments, and alluvium varying in thickness and character both laterally and with depth.Some of these granular deposits exhibit high permea- bil ity,and temperatures below O°C were noted at a depth of several hundred feet suggesting the possibility of permafrost. The ground water surface has not been well defined.Perched water tables are evidenced by the presence of several surface lakes. Artesian conditions have been encountered in at least one boring. With the proposed range of reservoir levels,these overburden de- posits will become saturated.A bedrock contour map of the Relict Channel area is presented in Figure 9.2. Additional investigation will be necessary to properly character- ize the subsurface conditions in the area prior to construction. Details of the potential design problems to be dealt with in the Relict Channel and the possible methods of treatment are discussed further in Section 12. 9-9 9.4 -Seismic Considerations For earthquake engineering and design considerations,.the project structures have been cl ass ified as either crit ical structures or non- critical structures.Critical structures include the dam and similar major structures whose fail ure may result in sudden and uncontrolled release of large volumes of water which may endanger property and lives downstream.The non-critical structures are those structures whose failure can be assessed as an economic or financial loss to the project in terms of lost revenue,repair,and/or replacement cost.Critical structures wi 11 be designed to safely withstand the effect of the II Safety Ev al uat ion Earthquake"(SEE)for the site.No significant dam- age to these structures wi 11 be accepted under these cond it ions.The design of noncritical structures for earthquake conditions is under- taken on the basis of conventional Uniform Building Code recommenda- tions. Two sources will be used for determination of the most severe SeE con- dition as a basis for design of structures at Watana,a Ben ioff Zone .max imum earthquake of magn itude 8.5 at a distance of 40 miles' from the site,and a Terrain maximum earthquake of magnitude 6.25 at a distan~e of less than 6 miles from the site. Design of critical concrete structures is generally based on a conser- vative analysis using an 80th percentile response spectrum for The Ter- rain SEE,with a 10 percent damping ratio (Figure 9.3),scaled down by a factor of 80 percent. Although the Terrain earthquake would result in more severe ground motions,the duration of these motions is relatively short and the likelihood of occurrence of such an event is extremely small.A more likely source of strong ground shaking at the Watana site is the Beni- off Zone. The design of the Watana dam has therefore been based on the projected time history for this event as discussed in Section 12. 9.5 -Selection of Reservoir Levels The selected elevation of the Watana dam crest is based on considera- tions of the value of the hydroelectric energy prOduced from the asso- ciated reservoir,geotechnical constraints on reservoir levels,and freeboard requ irements.Fi rm energy,average annual energy,construc- tion costs and operation and maintenance costs were determined for the Watana development with dam crest elevations of 2240,2190,and 2140 feet.The relative value of energy produced in terms of the present worth of the long-term production costs (LTPW)for each of these three dam elevations was determined by means of the OGP generation planning model described in Section 6.The physical constraints imposed on dam height and reservoir elevation by geotechnical considerations were re- viewed and incorporated into the crest elevation selection process. 1 ':1 1 -j 1 1 ".1 1 l I l I I j 1 I I l l fJ Finally,freeboard requirements for the PMF and settlement of the dam after construction or as a result of seismic activity were taken into account. fl I ] j I J f )IJ [j I ) ,J (a) (b) Methodology Firm and average annual energy produced by the Susitna development are based on 32 years of hydrological records.The energy pro- duced was determined by using a multi-reservoir simulation of the operation of the Watana and Devil Canyon reservoirs.A variety of reservoir drawdowns were exami ned,and drawdowns produci ng the maximum firm energy consi stent with engineeri ng feasi bil ity and cost of the intake structure were selected (see Section 9.11). Mi nimum fl ow requirements were estab 1ished at both project sites based on downstream fisheries considerations. As discussed in Section 9.6,to meet system demand the required maximum generating capability at Watana in the period 1993 and 2010 ranges from 665 MW to 908 MW.For the reservoir 1eve1 de- terminations,energy estimates were made on the basis of assumed average annual capacity requirements of 680 MW at Watana in 1993, increasing to 1020 MW at Watana in 2007, with an additional 600 MW at Devil Ca nyon comi ng on 1 ine in the year 2002.The long term present worth costs of the generation system required to meet the Railbelt energy demand were then determined for each of the three crest elevations of the Watana dam using the OGP5 model. The construction cost estimates used in the OGP5 modeling process for the Watana and Devil Canyon projects were based on preliminary conceptual layouts and construction schedules.Further refinement of these layouts has taken place during the optimization process. These refi nements have no si gnifi cant impact on the reservoir level selection. Economic Optimization Economic optimization of the Watana reservoir level was based on an evaluation of three dam crest elevations of 2240, 2190,and 2140 feet.These crest elevations apply to the central portion of the embankment with appropriate allowances for freeboard and seis- mic settlement,and correspond to maximum operating levels of the reservoir of 2215,2165,and 2115 feet,respectively.Average annual energy calculated for each case using the reservoir simula- tion model are given in Table 9.1,together with corresponding project construction costs. In the determination of LTPW,the Susitna capital costs were ad- justed to include an allowance for interest during construction and then used as input to the OGP5 model.Simulated annual energy yields were distributed on a monthly basis by the reservoir opera- tion model to match as closely as possible the projected monthly 9-11 - For flood magnitudes up to the 1:10,000-year event,there will be no danger of overtopping the lowest point in the relict chan- ne1. energy demand of the Rai1belt and then input to the OGP5 model. The LTPW of meeti ng the Rail belt energy demand usi ng the Susitna development as the primary source of energy,were then determined for each of the three reservoir levels. On the ri ght si de of the reservoir created by the Watana dam a relict channel of considerable depth connects the reservoir to Tsusena Creek.As the water surface elevation of the reservoir is increased up to and beyond 2200 feet,a low area in the relict channel would require costly water retaining structures to be built and other measures to be taken.In addition to the cost the techni ca1 feasi bil ity of these measures is not as certai n as desired on a project of this magnitude.Because of the considerations relating to seismic stability,seepage problems and permafrost conditions in the relict channel area,it was concluded that the relict channel area should not be constantly under water. By comparing normal reservoir levels plus flood surcharge to ground surface contours,it was determined that with normal ______l'eseC\tQtI"J~_'v'e 1~of 2185 and a sma1}fr~~l:>oar~_c:ll~~_JtLeJQJJQwi ng conditions would exist: 1 I I 1 I J -l 1 .1 I The results of these evaluations are shown in Table 9.2,and plots showing the variation of the LTPW with dam crest elevation are shown in Figure 9.4.This figure indicates that on the basis of the assumptions used,the minimum LTPW occurs at a Watana crest elevation ranging from approximately 2160 to 2200 feet (reservoir levels 2140 to 2180).A higher dam crest will still result in a development which has an overall net economic benefit relative to thermal energy sources.However,it is also clear that as the height of the Watana dam is increased,the unit costs of addition- al energy produced at Watana is somewhat greater than for the dis- placed thermal energy source.Hence,the LTPW of the overall system wou1 d increase.Conversely,as the hei ght of the dam is lowered,and thus Watana produces 1ess energy,the unit cost of the energy produced by a thermal generation source to replace the lost Susitna energy,is more expensive than Susitna energy.In this case also,the LTPW increases. GeotechnicB1 Considerations(c) For the PMF a freeboard dike in the low area of up to 10 feet in height would provide adequate protection.This dike would be wetted only a few days during a PMF event. -If seismic settlement or settlement due to permafrost melting di d occur,the combi nati on of the 10 feet freeboard dike con- structed on a suitable foundation plus a normal reservoir level of 2185 would ensure that breakthrough in the relict channel area would not occur. 9-12 i,t ! j l I] (d) With this approach,the Watana project will develop the maximum energy reasonably available without incurring the need for costly water retaining structures in the relict channel area. Conclusions It is important to establish clearly the overall objective slight- ly of setting the Watana reservoir level.An objective which is to minimize the LTPW energy cost will lead to selection of a slightly lower reservoir level than an objective which is to maxi- mize the amount of energy which can be obtained from the available resource,while doing so with a technically sound project. The three values of LTPW developed by the OGP5 computer runs de- fined a relationship between LTPW and Watana dam height which is relatively insensitive to dam height.This is highlighted by the curve of LTPW versus dam height in Figure 9.4.This figure shows there is only a slight variation in the LTPW for the range of dam heights included in the analysis.Thus,from an economic stand- point,the optimum crest elevation could be considered as varying over a range of elevations from 2140 to 2220 feet with little effect on project economics.The governing factors in establish- ing the upper limit of darn height were consequently the geotechni- cal considerations discussed in (c) above. The normal maximum operating level of the reservoir was therefore set at Elevation 2185, al l owi nq the objective of maximizing the economic use of the Susitna resource still to be satisfied. I Ll IJ 9.6 -Selection of Installed Capacity The generating capacity to be installed at both Watana and Devil Canyon was determined on the basis of generation planning studies described in Sections 6 and 8,together with appropriate consideration of the fol- 1owi ng: -Available firm and average energy from Watana and Devil Canyon; -The forecast energy demand and peak load demand of the system; -Available firm and average energy from other existing and committed plant; -Capital cost and annual operating costs for Watana and Devil Canyon, -Capital cost and annual operating costs for alternative sources of energy and capacity; -Environmental constraints on reservoir operation;and - Turbine and generator operating characteristics. (a)Methodology The following procedure was used to select the installed capacity Watana: 9-13 -The firm and average energy available at both Watana and Devil Canyon was determined using the reservoir simulation program described in Section 9.5 (see Plate 8.6). - A determinat ion was then made of the generating capacity re- quired to utilize the available energy from the Susitna Project in the hydrological years of record,based on the following assumptions: • In a wet year,energy developed at either Watana or Devil Can- yon,displaces excess thermal energy (from coal,gas turbine, combined cycle,or diesel plants). • In an average year,where thermal energy is required to meet system energy demand,hydro energy is used either to satisfy peak demand with thermal energy supplying base load (Option I);or hydro energy is used to supply base load requirements with thermal energy at peak demand (Option 2).The actual choice is based on dispatching the most economic energy first. Devil Canyon energy is used predominantly as base load ener:-gy because of environmental constraints on downstream flow varia- tions. •The maximum installed capacity WqS determined on the basis of the estab 1ished peak generat i ng capacity required plus any hydro standby or spinning reserve equipment. } J ) 1 -1 l i 1 l 1 1 I ! I ,I l 1 ----~----- I -j rJ 9- Watana Installed Capacity The required total capacity at Watana in a wet year,excluding standby and spinning reserve capacity,is summar lzed below.The capacities are based on the Battelle medium load forecast. Capacity {MW Opt i on 1 Option 2 Devil Devil ----------_•.._~------ j{at_CLOlL .Jhermal.._C_a~oYQIL _~W~a.t_ao_a_.Ihermal__C_a_oy_o_~ Demand Year Peak Base Base Base Peak Base 1993 801 0 0 801 0 0 1995 839 0 0 839 0 0 2000 874 66 0 742 198 0 2002 (Including Devi 1 Canyon)660 0 354 660 0 354 2005 (Including Devi 1 Canyon)750 0 376 750 0 376 2010 (Including Devi 1 Canyon)900 0 493 900 0 493 (b) ~~I(~~1-···_·····_······_._. 11 \] IJ i jU I itJ (c) On the basis of this evaluation,the ultimate power generation capability at Watana was selected as 1020 MW for design purposes, to allow a margin for hydro spinning reserve and standby for forced outage.This installation also provides a small margin in the event that the load growth exceeds the Battelle medium load forecast. Unit Capacity Selection of the unit size for a given total capacity is a compro- mise between the initial least cost solution,generally involving a scheme with a smaller number of large capacity units,and the improved plant efficiency and security of operation provided by a 1arger number of smaller capacity units.Other factors incl ude the size of each unit as a proportion of the total system load and the mini~um anticipated load on the station.Any requirement for a minimiJm downstream flow would also affect the selection.Growth of th~~ctual load demand is also a significant factor,since the installation of units may be phased to match the actual load growth.The number of units and their individual ratings were determi ned by the need to del iver the required peak capacity in the peak demand month of December,at the minimum December reser- voir level,with the turbine wicket gates fully open. An examination was made of the economic impact on power plant pro- ducti On.costs of vari ous combi nati ons of a number of units and rated capacity,which would provide the selected total capacity of 1020 MW.For any given installed capacity,plant efficiency in- creases as the number of units increases.The assumed capitalized value used in this evaluation was $1.00 per kWh,based on the eco- nomic analysis completed for the thermal generation system. Vari- ations in,the number of units and capacity will affect the cost of the power intakes,penstocks,powerhouse,and tailrace.The dif- ferences in these capital costs were estimated and included in the evaluation.The results of this analysis are presented below. Capitalized Rated Val ue of Capacity Additional Additional Number of Unit Energy Capital Cost Net Benefit of Units (MW)($Millions)($Millions)($Millions) 4 250 0 0 0 6 170 40 31 9 8 125 50 58 -8 It is apparent from this analysis that a six-unit scheme with a net benefit of approximately $9 million is the most economic al- ternative.This scheme also offers a higher degree of flexibility and secur t ty of operation compared to the four-unit alternative, 9-15 as well as advantages if unit installation is phased to match actual load growth.The net economic benefit of the six unit scheme is $17 million greater than that of the eight-unit scheme, while at the same time,no significant operational or scheduling advantages are associated with the eight-unit scheme. A scheme incorporating six units each with a rated capacity of 170 MW,for a total of 1020 MW,has been adopted for all Watana al- ternat ives . 9.7 -Selection of the Spillway Design Flood Norma 1 design practice for projects of thi s magnitude,together with applicable design regulations,require that the project be capable of passing the PMF routed through the reservoir without endangering the dam. In addition to this requirement,the project should have sufficient spillway capacity to safely pass a major flood of lesser magnitude than the PMF without damaging the mai n dam or anci 11 ary structures.The frequency of occurrence of thi s flood,known as the spi 11 way des ign flood or Standard Project Flood (SPF),is generally selected on the basis of an evaluation of the risks to the project if the spillway de- sign flood is exceeded,compared to the costs of the structures re- quired to safely discharge the flood.For this study,a spillway de- sign flood with a return frequency of 1:10,000 years was selected for Watana. A list of spillway design flood frequencies and magnitudes for several major projects is presented below. Spi 11 way Spillway Desi gn Flood Basin Capacity Peak PMF After Routi ng Project Frequency Inflow (cfs)(cfs )(cfs)* Mica,Canada PMF 250,000 250,000 150,000 Chuychjl1 FClll~_, ~.-.._.__._--~_.."-----.-----------"------- Canada 1:10,000 600,000 1,000,000 230,000 New Bullards,USA PMF 226,000 226,000 170,000 Oroville,USA 1:10,000 440,500 711,400 440,500 Guri,Venezuela (final stage)PMF 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 Itaipu,Brazi 1 PMF 2,195,000 2,195,000 2,105,000 Sayano,USSR 1:10,000 480,000 N/A 680,000 All spillways except Sayano have capacity to pass PMF with surcharge. 9;;;16 I 1 ~1 t 1 1 1 j f I I I- I I I I The flood frequency analysis (see Section 7.2)produced the following values: 9.8 -Main Dam Alternatives This section describes the alternative types of dam considered at the Watana site and the basis for the selected alternative. Additional capacity required to pass the PMF will be provided by an emergency spillway consisting of a fuse plug and rock channel on the ri ght bank. Inflow Peak 326,000 cfs 156,000 cfs1:10,000 years FrequencyFlood Probable Maximum Spillway Design j il il (a)Comparison of Embankment and Concrete Type Dams The selection between an embankment type or a concrete type dam is usually based on the configuration of the valley,the condition of the foundation rock,depth of the overburden,and the relative availability of construction materials.Previous studies by the COE envisaged an embankment dam at Watana.Init ia1 studi es com- pleted this as part of this current evaluation included comparison of an earthfill dam with a concrete arch dam at the Watana site. An arrangement for a concrete arch dam alternative at Watana is presented in Plate 9.1.The results of this analysis indicated that the cost of the embankment dam was somewhat lower than the arch dam,even though the concrete costs used significantly lower than comparable costs used for Devil Canyon.This preliminary evaluation did not indicate any significant advantages to be gained by constructing the concrete arch relative to the arrange- ment of other structures,or the construction schedule~ IJ Based on the overall cost differences descri bed above, and the likelihood that the cost of the arch dam would increase relative to that of the embankment dam,the arch dam alternative was elim- inated from further consideration. (b)Selection of Dam Type !..1\ The development of the design of the main dam,together with a description of the various features of the dam,is given in Sec- tion 12.The dam is,of course,the central and most costly com- ponent of the project,and a brief discussion of the development of the finally selected design,together with some of the factors which influenced development of the general arrangement is pre- sented in this section. Selection of the configuration of the embankment dam cross-section was undertaken within the context of the following basic consider- ations: 9-17 -The availability of suitable construction materials within eco- nomic haul distance,particularly core material; -The relatively limited construction season available for place- ment of compacted fill materials. -The requirement that the dam be capable of withstanding the ef- fects of a significant earthquake shock as well as the static loads imposed by the reservoir and its own weight; - A vertical core located centrally within the dam;and -An inclined core with both faces sloping upstream. The advantages and disadvantages of these two a lternat ives are discussed in Section 12. A central vertical core was chosen for the embankment based on a revi ew of precedent desi gn and the nature of the available impervious material. The mai n dam wi 11 consi st of a compacted core protected by fi ne and coarse filter zones on both the upstream and downstream slopes of the core.The upstream and downstream outer supporti ng fi 11 zones will contain relatively free draining compacted gravel or rockfill,providing stability to the overall embankment structure. The location and inclination of the core is fundamental to the de- sign of the embankment.Two basic alternatives exist in this re- gard: 1 ! 1 ! t ] J _! 1 The exploration program undertaken during 1980-81 indicated that I adequate quantities of materials suitable for dam construction were located within reasonable haul distance from the site.The 1 potential borrow materials for the dam are discussed in Section ,. 9.2.The well graded silty sand materal from Borrow Site Dis considered the most promising source of impervious fill.Compac-\ tion tests indicate a natural moisture content slightly on the wet side of optimum moisture content,so that control of moisture con- tent will be critical in achieving a dense core with high shear strength.j ...-'~~-p ot ential~soar-c es-fbr th-e~up-s-tr-e-a-rn--a-n-d~d-own-s-tre-am~s-h-e-l-"s~i-nc-lude-------- either river gravel from borrow areas along the Susitna River,or _/ compacted rockfill from quarries or excavations for spillways. During the intermediate review process,the upstream slope of the darn was flattened from 2.5H:1V used during the initial review to 2.75H:1V.This slope was based on a conservative estimate of the effect ive shear strengh parameters of the avail able construction materials,as well as a conservative allowance in the design for the effects of earthquake loadings on the darn. During the final review stage,the exterior upstream slope of the darn was steepened from 2.75H:1V to 2.4H:1V,reflecting the results of the preliminary static and dynamic design analyses being under- taken at the same time as the general arrangement studi es.As ! ........-_....-._~- A section with a 2.4H:1V upstream slope and a 2.H:1V downstream slope located on alternative axis number 3,was used for the final review of altnerative shcemes.Further refinements to the design were subsequently incorporated in the final design presented in Secti on 12. part of the final review,the volume of the dam with an upstream slope of 2.4H:1V was computed for four alternative dam axes.The location of these alternative axes are shown on Plate 9.2.The dam volume associated with each of the four alternative axes is listed below: (] I) ) Alternative Axi s Number 1 2 3 4 Total Volume (mi 11 i on yd31 69.2 71. 7 69.3 71. 9 9.9 -Diversion Scheme Alternatives The topography of the site generally dictates that diversion of the river during construction be accomplished using diversion tunnels with upstream and downstream cofferdams protecting the main construction area. The configuration of the river in the vicinity of the site favors loca- tion of the diversion tunnels on the right bank,since the tunnel length for a tunnel on the left bank would be approximately 2,000 feet greater.In addition,rock conditions on the right bank are more favorable for tunneling and excavation of intake and outlet portals. i 1u IJ Ll (a)Design Flood for Diversion The recurrence interval of the design flood for diversion is gen- erally established based on the characteristics of the flow regime of the river,the length of the construction period for which di- version is required and the probable consequences of overtopping of the cofferdams.For this feasibility analysis,design criteria and experi ence from other projects simi 1ar in scope and nature have been used in selecting the diversion design flood. At Watana,damage to the partially completed dam could be signifi- cant,or more importantly,would probably result in at least one- year delay in the completion schedule.A preliminary evaluation of the construction schedule indicates that the diversion scheme would be required for 4 or 5 years until the dam is of sufficient height to permit initial filling of the reservoir.A design flood with a return frequency of 1:50 years was selected based on exper- ience and practice with other major hydroelectric projects.This approximates a 90 percent probability that the cofferdam will not 9-19 (d)Emergency Release Facilities ________~the__foLlowing-a]-ter:--n at-i-ve---Uned--tun nel--schemes--wer:__e-exami-ned --as part of this analysis: The emergency release facilities influenced the number,type,and arrangement of the diversion tunnels selected for the final scheme. I j I :1 7,940 cfs 23,100 cfs (June) 890 cfs (March) 81,100 cfs -Pressure tunnel with a free outlet; -Pressure tunnel with a submerged outlet;and - Free flow tunnel. A basic consideration in evaluation of any diversion tunnel scheme is an examination of the advantages and disadvantages of concrete- lined tunnels compared to unlined tunnels.Preliminary hydraulic studies indicated that the design flood routed through the diver- sion scheme would result in a design discharge of approximately 80,500 cfs.For concrete-lined tunnels,design velocities of the order of 50 feet per second have been used in several projects. For unlined tunnels,maximum design velocities rang from 10 ftjs in good quality rock to 4 ftjs in less competent material are typ- ical.Thus, the volume of material to be excavated using an un- lined tunnel would be at least 5 times that for lined tunnel.The reliability of an unlined tunnel is more dependent on rock condi- tions than is a lined tunnel,particularly given the extended per- iod during which the diversion scheme is required to operate. These considerations,together with the considerable higher cost and the somewhat questionable feasibility of four unlined tunnels with diameters approaching 50 feet in this type of rock,are con- sidered sufficient to eliminate consideration of unlined tunnels for the diversion scheme. be overtopped during the 5-year construction period.The diver- si on desi gn flood together with average flow characteri s ti cs of the river significant to diversion are presented below: Average annual flow Maximum average monthly flow Minimum average monthly flow Design flood inflow (1:50 years) (b)Cofferdams For the purposes of establ ishi ng the overall general arrangement of the project and for subsequent diversion optimization studies, the upstream cofferdam section adopted comprises an initial clo- sure dam structure approximately 30 feet high placed in the wet. (c)Diversion Tunnels f] \ I !1 II IJ j I (e) At an early stage of the study,it was established that some form of low level release facility was required to permit lowering of the reser voir in the event of an extreme emer gency, a nd to meet instream flow requirements during fill ing of the reservoir.The most economical alternative available would involve converting one of the diversion tunnels to permanent use as a low level outlet facility.Since it would be necessary to maintain the diversion scheme in service during construction of the low level outlet works,two or more diversion tunnels would be required.The use of two diversion tunnels also provides an additional measure of security to the diversion scheme in case of the loss of service of one tunnel. The low 1evel rel ease facil it ies wi 11 be operated approximately three years during filling of the reservoir.Discharge at high heads usually requires some form of energy dissipati on pri or to returning the flow to the river.Given the space restrictions im- posed by the size of the diversion tunnel,it was decided to util- ize a double expansion system constructed within the upper tunnel. Optimization of Diversion Scheme Given the considerations described above relative to design flows, cofferdam configuration and alternative types of tunnels,an eco- nomic study was undertaken to determine the optimum combination of upstream cofferdam height and tunnel diameter. Capital costs were developed for three heights of upstream coffer- dam embankment with a 30-foot-wi de crest and exteri or slopes of 2H:IV.A freeboard allowance of 5 feet for settlement and wave runup and 10 feet for the effects of downstream ice jammi ng on tailwater elevations was adopted. Capital costs for the 4,700 foot long tunnel alternatives included allowances for excavation,concrete liner,rock bolts,and steel supports.Costs were also developed for the upstream and downstream portals,including excavation and support.The cost of intake gate structures and associated gates was determined not to vary significantly with tunnel diameter and was excluded from the analysis. Curves of headwater elevation versus tunnel diameter for the vari- ous tunnel alternatives with submerged and free outlets are pre- sented in Figure 9.5.The relationship between capital cost and crest elevation for the upstream cofferdam is shown in Figure 9.6.The capital cost for various tunnel diameters with free and submerged outlets is given in Figure 9.7. The results of the optimization study are presented in Figure 9.8,and indicate the following optimum solutions for each alter- native. 9-21 9-22 (f)Selected Diversion Scheme 1 I ! I 1 ! J 1 1 I ) t 1 ------- 1 I 150 110 Upstream Cofferdam 1595 1555 Diameter Cofferdam Crest Type of Tunnel (feet)Elevation (ft)Total Cost ($) Two pressure tunnels 30 1595 66,000,000 Two free flow tunnels 32.5 1580 68,000,000 Two free flow tunnels 35 1555 69,000,000 The cost studies indicate that a relatively small cost differen- tial (4 to 5 percent)separates the various alternatives for tun- nel diameter from 30 to 35 feet. An important consideration at this point is ease of cofferdam clo- sure.For the pressure tunnel scheme,the invert of the tunnel entrance is below riverbed elevation,and once the tunnel is com- plete diversion can be accomplished with a closure dam sect ion approximately 10 feet high.The free flow tunnel scheme however requires a tunnel invert approximately 30 feet above the riverbed level,and diversion will involve an end-dumped closure section 50 feet high.Two basic problems are associated with closure embank- ments of 50 feet high -velocities during final closure would be quite high,thus requiring large size stone,and subsequent seal- ing of the closure embankment in the wet must be done at signifi- cant depth,with re 1at i ve ly no control compared to the lower essentially dry embankment. Based on the preceeding considerations,a combination of one pres- sure tunnel and one free flow tunnel (or pressure tunnel with free outlet)was adopted. This will permit initial diversion to be made using the lower pressure tunnel,thereby simplifying the cri- tical closure operation and avoiding potentially serious delays in the schedule.Two alternatives were re-evaluated as follows: More detail ed 1ayout studi es i ndi cated that the higher cofferdam associated with the 30 foot diameter tunnel alternative would re- quire 1ocati ng the inlet portal further upstream into "The Fi nsII shear zone. Since good rock conditions for portal construction are essential,and the 35 foot diameter tunnel alternative would permit a portal location downstream of liThe Fins",this latter al- ternati ve was adopted.As noted in (e),the overall cost differ- ence was not significant in the range of tunnel diameters consid- ered,and the scheme i ncorporati ng two 35 foot diameter tunnel s with an upstream cofferdam crest Elevation 1555 was incorporated as part of the selected general arrangement. Tunnel Diameter -------··---~---~tf eet-)--- 30 35 The various components of the selected diversion scheme are des- cribed in Section 12. Consideration was also given to combinations of these alternatives with or without supplemental facilities such as valved tunnels and an emer- gency spillway fuse plug for handling the PMF discharge. 9.10 -Spillway Facilities Alternatives As discussed in Section 9.7,the project has been designed to safely pass floods with the following return frequencies: Total Spillway Di scharge (cfs) 145,000 310,000 Frequency 1:10,000 years All spillway alternatives were assumed to incorporate a concrete ogee type control section controlled by fixed roller vertical lift gates.Chute spillway sections were assumed to be concrete lined, with ample provision for air entrainment in the chute to prevent cavitation,and with pressure relief drains,and rock anchors in the foundation.A detailed description of the selected spillway alternative is given in Section 12. Flood Spillway Design Probable Maximum Discharge of the spillway design flood will require a gated service spillway on either the left or right bank. Three basic alternative spillway types were examined: - Chute spillway with flip bucket; - Chute spillway with stilling basin;and - Cascade spillway. (b) Environmental Mitigation During development of the general arrangements for both the Watana and Devil Canyon dams,a restriction was imposed on the amount of excess dissolved nitrogen permitted in-the spillway discharges. Clearly,the selected spillway alternatives will greatly influence and be influenced by the project general arrangement. (a) Energy Dissipation The two chute spillway alternatives considered achieved effective energy dissipation either by means of a flip bucket which directs the spillway discharge in the form of a free-fall jet into a plunge pool well downstream from the dam or a stilling basin at the end of the chute which dissipates energy in a hydraulic jump. The cascade type spillway limits the free fall height of the dis- charge by utilizing a series of 20 to 50 feet steps down to river level,with energy dissipation at each step. fl 11 \ I [~) 11!) 9-23 Supersaturation occurs when aerated flows are subjected to pres- sures greater than 30 to 40 feet of head which forces excess nit- rogen into solution.This occurs when water is subjected to the high pressures that occur in deep plunge pools or at large hydrau- lic jumps.The excess nitrogen would not be dissipated within the downstream Devil Canyon reservoir and a bUildup of nitrogen con- centrat i on could occur throughout the body of water.It woul d eventually be discharged downstream from Devil Canyon with harmful effects on the fish population.On the basis of an evaluation of the related impacts,and discussions with interested federal and state agencies,spillway facilities were designed to limit dis- charges of water from either Watana or Devi 1 Canyon that may become supersaturated with nitrogen to a recurrence period of not less than 1:50 years. 9.11 -Power Facilities Alternative Selection of the optimum power plant development involved consideration of the following: -Location,type and size of the power plant; - Geotechnical considerations; -Number,type,size and setting of generating units; -Arrangement of intake and water passages;and -Environmental constraints. The selection of the installed capacity of 1020 MW at Watana is des- cribed in Section 9.6.The detailed comparison of power facilities al- ternatives is described in Appendix B.A summary of the general con- clusions is described below. (a)Comparison of Surface and Underground Powerhouse Studies were carri ed out to compare the construction costs of a surface powerhouse and of an underground powerhouse at Watana. These studies were undertaken on the basis of preliminary concep- tual layouts assuming six units and a total installed capacity of 840 MW.The comparative cost estimates for powerhouse civil works and .al.ect~tcaland-mechan-ical-eq u-i-pment-{-exGlud-i-Ag---Gemmen-items) indicated an advantage in favor of the underground powerhouse of $16,300,000.The additional cost for the surface powerhouse arrangement is primarily associated with the longer penstocks and the steel linings required.Although construction cost estimates for a 1020 MW plant would be somewhat higher,the overall conclu- sion favoring the underground location would not change. The underground powerhouse arrangement is also better suited to the severe winter conditions in Alaska,is less affected by river flood flows in summer,and is aesthetically less obtrusive.This arrangement has therefore been adopted for further development. 9-24 . 1 1 t'I 1 j ] J -I I I t J J 1 11 j (b)Comparison of Alternative Locations Preliminary studies were undertaken during the development of con- ceptua 1 project 1ayouts at Watana to i nvesti gate both ri ght and left bank locations for power facilities.The configuration of the site is such that left bank locations generally required longer penstock and/or tailrace tunnel s and were therefore more expensive. The location of the left bank was further rejected because of in- dications that the underground facilities would be located in rel- atively poor quality rock.The underground powerhouse was there- fore located on the ri ght bank such that the major openi ngs 1ay between the two major shear features ("The Fi ns" and the "Fi nqer- buster"). (c)Underground Openings Because no construction adits or extensive drilling in the power- house and tunnel locations have been completed it has been assumed that full concrete-l i ni ng of the penstocks and tai lrace tunnel s will be required.This assumption is conservative and is for pre- liminary design only;in practice,a large proportion of the tail- race tunnels will probably be unlined,depending on the actual rock quality encountered. The mi nimum center-to-center spaci ng of rock tunnels and caverns has been assumed for layout studies to be 2.5 times the width or diameter of the larger excavation. (d)Selection of Turbines The selection of turbine type is governed by the available head and flow.For the des i gn head and specifi c speed,Franci s type turbi nes have been selected.Franci s turbi nes have a reasonably fl at 1oad-effi ci ency curve over a range from about 50 percent to 115 percent of rated output with peak efficiency of about 92 per- cent. The number and rating of individual units is discussed in detail in Section 9.6.The final selected arrangement comprised six units producing 170 MW each,rated at minimum reservoir level (from reservoir simulation studies)in the peak demand month (December)at full gate.The unit output at best efficiency and a rated head of 680 feet is 181 MW. (e)Transformers The selection of transformer type,size,location and step-up rat- ing is described in Section 12.18 and summarized below: -Single phase transformers are required because of transport lim- itations on Alaskan roads and railways; 9-25 Di rect transformation from 15 kV to 345 kVis preferred for overall system transient stability; An underground transformer gallery has been selected for minimum total cost of transformers,cables,bus,and transformer losses, and The preliminary design of the power facilities involves two tail- race tunnels leading from a common surge chamber.An alternative arrangement with a single tailrace tunnel was also considered,but no significant cost saving was apparent. I .1 J -l I 1 I 1 I 1 I I 1 I ';1 :1 J I ] I-20.0 -3.0 +3.0 +4.0 +6.0 - 2.0 Base Caseo o o o o Cost Difference ($x 10 6) 6 Penstocks 3 PenstocksItem Total Intake Penstocks Bi furcati ons Valves Powerhouse Capitalized Value of Extra Head Loss Power Intake and Water Passages The power intake and approach channel are significant items in the cost of the overall power facilities arrangement.The size of the intake is controlled by the number and minimum spacing between the penstocks,which in turn is dictated by geotechnical considera- tions (Sections 9.2 and 9.3). - A grouped arrangement of three sets of three single-phase trans- formers for each set of two units has been selected (a total of nine transformers)to reduce the physical size of the transfor- mer gallery and to provide a transformer spacing comparable with the unit spacing. Despite a marginal saving of $2 million (or less than 2 percent in a total estimated cost of $120 million)in favor of three pen- stocks,the arrangement of six individual penstocks has been retained.This arrangement provides improved flexibility and security of operation. The preferred penstock arrangement comprises six individual pen- stocks,one for each turbine.With this arrangement,no inlet valve is required in the powerhouse since penstock dewatering can be performed by using the control gate at the intake.An alterna- tive arrangement with three penstocks was considered in detail to assess any possible advantages.This scheme would require a bi- furcation and two inlet valves on each penstock and extra space in the powerhouse to accommodate the inlet valves.Estimates of rel- ative cost differences are summarized below: (f) Optimization studies on all water passages were carried out to determine the minimum total cost of initial construction plus the capitalized value of anticipated energy losses caused by conduit friction,bends and changes of section.For the penstock optimi- zation,the construction costs of the intake and approach channel were included,as a function of the penstock diameter and spacing. Similarly,in the optimization studies for the tailrace tunnels, the costs of the surge chamber were included,as a function of tailrace tunnel diameter. (g) Environmental Constraints Apart from the potential nitrogen supersaturation problem discus- sed in Section 9.10,the major environmental constraints on the design of the power facilities are: - Control of downstream river temperatures;and - Control of downstream flows. The intake design has been modified to enable power plant flows to be drawn from the reservoir at four different levels throughout the anticipated range of reservoir drawdown for energy production in order to control the downstream river temperatures within ac- ceptable limits. Minimum flows at Gold Creek during the critical summer months have been studied to mitigate the project impacts on salmon spawning downstream of Devil Canyon.These minimum flows represent a con- straint on the reservoir operation,and influence the computation of average and firm energy produced by the Susitna development. These studies are discussed in detail in Section 15. The Watana development will be operated as a daily peaking plant for load following.The actual extent of daily peaking will be dictated by unit availabil ity,unit size,system demand,system stability,generating costs,etc.,(as described in Section 15). 9.12 -Selection of Watana General Arrangement Preliminary alternative arrangements of the Watana Project were devel- oped and subjected to a series of review and screening processes.The layouts selected from each screening process were developed in greater detail prior to the next review,and where necessary,additional lay- outs were prepared combining the features of two or more of the altern- atives.Assumptions and criteria were evaluated at each stage and add- itional data incorporated as necessary.The selection process followed the general selection methodology established for the Susitna project, and is outlined below. 9-27 (a)Selection Methodology The determination of the project general arrangement at Watana was undertaken in three distinct review stages:preliminary,inter- mediate,and final. (i)Preliminary Review (completed early in 1981) This comprised four steps: - Step 1:Assemble available data; Determine design criteria;and Establish evaluation criteria. - Step 2:Develop pre 1 iminary 1ayouts and desi gn cr iteri a based on the above data including all plausible alternatives for the constituent facilities and structures. - Step 3:Review all layouts on the basis of technical feasibil ity,readily apparent cost differences, safety,and environmental impact. -Step 4:Select those layouts that can be identified as most favorable,based on the evaluation criteria established in Step 1,taking into account the preliminary nature of the work at this stage. (ii)Intermediate Review (completed by mid-1981) This involved a series of 5 steps: - Step 1:Review all data,incorporating additional data from other work tasks. Review and expand design criteria to a greater level of detail. Review evaluation criteria and modify,if neces- sary. - Step 2: Revise selected layouts on basis of the revised criteria and additional data.Prepare plans and principal sections of layouts. - Step 3:Prepare quantity estimates for major structures based on drawings prepared under Step 2. Develop a preliminary construction schedule to evaluate whether or not the selected layout will allow completion of the project within the re- qUired time frame. 9-28 I 1, I ) 1 "J i ) I) j!t) ,1, 1 1 J ,I 1 ,) ) 1 ) i 1 j ) [J Prepare a preliminary contractor's type estimate to determine the overall cost of each scheme. - Step 4:Review all layouts on the basis of technical feasibility,cost impact of possible unknown conditions and uncertainty of assumptions,safe- ty,and environmental impact. - Step 5:Select the two most favorable layouts based on the evaluation criteria determined under Step 1. (iii)Final Review (completed early in 1982) - Step 1:Assemble and review any additional data from other work tasks. Revise design criteria in accordance with addi- tional available data. Finalize overall evaluation criteria. - Step 2: Revise or further develop the two layouts on the basis of input from Step 1 and determine overall dimensions of structures,water passages,gates, and other key items. - Step 3:Prepare quantity take-offs for all major struc- tures. Review cost components within a preliminary con- tractor's type estimate usi ng the most recent data and criteria,and develop a construction schedul e. Determine overall direct cost of schemes. - Step 4:Review all layouts on the basis of practicabil- ity,technical feasibility,cost,impact of pos- sible unknown conditions,safety,and environ- mental impact. - Step 5:Select the final layout on the basis of the evaluation criteria developed under Step 1. (b) Design Data and Criteria As discussed above,the review process included assembling rele- vant design data,establishing preliminary design criteria,and expandi ng and refi ni ng these data duri ng the intermedi ate and final reviews of the project arrangement.The design data and design criteria which evolved through the final review is pre- sented in Table 9.3.Data and criteria developed during the pre- liminary and intermediate review stages are given in Appendix B for reference. 9-29 (c)Evaluation Criteria The various layouts were evaluated at each stage of the review process on the basis of the criteria summarized in Table 9.4.The criteria listed in Table 9.4 illustrate the progressively more de- tail ed eval uat i on process 1 eading to the fi nal sel ected arrange- ment. 9.13 -Preliminary Review The development selection studies described in Section 8 involved com- parisons of hydroelectric schemes at a number of sites on the Susitna River.As part of these comparisons a preliminary conceptual design was developed for Watana incorporating a double stilling basin type spillway (Plate 8.2). Ei ght further 1ayouts were subsequently prepared and exami ned for the Watana project during this preliminary review process,in addition to the scheme shown on Plate 8.2.These eight layouts are shown in sche- matic form on Plate 9.3.A1ternat i ve 1 of these 1ayout s was the scheme recommended for further study in the Development Sel ect i on- Report (3). This section describes the preliminary review undertaken of alternative Watana layouts. (a)Basis of Comparison of Alternatives Although it was recogni zed that provi si on would have to be made for downstream releases of water during filling of the reservoir and for emergency reservoir drawdown,these features were not in- corporated in these preliminary layouts.These facilities would either be inter-connected with the diversion tunnels or be pro- vided for separately.Since the system selected would be similar for all layouts with minimal cost differences and little impact on other structures,it was decided to exclude these facilities from overgl1 assessment at this early Ongoi nggeofechni Cc:ir---ex-proralion-s-ljaa-raentTfl ea--fne f\ira major shear zones crossi ng the Susitna Ri ver and runni ng roughly par- allel in the northwest direction.These zones enclose a stretch of watercourse approximately 4500 feet in 1ength (see Section 9.2).Preliminary evaluation of the existing geological data in- dicated highly fractured and altered materials within the actual shear zones,which would pose serious problems for conventional tunneling methods and would be unsuitable for founding of massive concrete structures.The originally proposed dam axis was located between these shear zones,and as no apparent major advantage appeared to be gained from large changes in the dam location,lay- outs generally were kept withi n the confi nes of these boundi ng zones. } J oJ ] 1 1 ,J 1 ~1 ) 1 ] j 1 ) r j IJ lJ U IJ IJ (b) An earth and rockfill dam as described in Section 9.8 was used as the basis for all layouts.The downstream slope of the dam was assumed as 2H:1V in all alternatives,upstream slopes varying between 2.5H:1V and 2.25H:1V were examined in order to determine the influence of variance in the dam slope on the congestion of the layout.In all these preliminary arrangements,except that shown on Plate 8.2,cofferdams were incorporated within the body of the main dam. Floods greater than the routed 1:10,000 year spillway design flood and up to the probable maximum flood were assumed to be passed by surcharging the spillways except in cases where an unlined cascade or stilling basin type spillway served as the sole discharge fa- cility.In such instances,under large surcharges,these spill- ways would not act as efficient energy dissipators but would be drowned out,acting as steep open channels with the possibility of their total destruction.In order to avoid such an occurrence the design flood for these latter spillways was considered as the routed probable maximum flood. On the basis of information existing at the time of the prelim- inary review,it appeared that an underground powerhouse could be located on either side of the river.A surface powerhouse on the right bank appeared feasible but was precluded from the left bank by the close proximity of the downstream toe of the dam and the adjacent broad shear zone.Locating the powerhouse further down- stream would require tunneling across the shear zone, which would be expensive,and excavating a talus slope.Furthermore,it was found that a left bank surface powerhouse would either interfere with a left bank spillway or would be directly impacted by dis- charges from a right bank spillway. Description of Alternative (i)Double Stilling Basin Scheme The Scheme as shown on Plate 8.2 has a dam axis location similar to that originally proposed by the COE,and a right bank double stilling basin spillway.The spillway follows the shortest line to the river avoiding interference with the dam and discharging downstream,almost parallel to the flow,into the center of the river.A substantial amount of excavation is required for the chute and stilling basins,although most of this material could probably be used in the dam.A large volume of concrete is also required for this type of spillway,resulting in a spillway system that would be very costly.The maximum head dis- sipated within each stilling basin is approximately 450 feet.Within world experience,cavitation and erosion of the chute and basins should not be a problem if the struc- t ures are proper ly designed. Extensive eros i on down stream would not be expected. 9-31 The diversion follows the shortest route,cutting the bend of the river on the right bank,and has inlet portals as far upstream as poss i b1e without havi ng to tunnel through liThe Fins ll •It is possible that the underground powerhouse is in the area of "The Ff nqer-bus t er ",but the powerhouse could be located upstream almost as far as the system of drain holes and galleries just downstream of the main dam grout curtain. (ii)Alternative 1 This alternative is that recommended for further study in the Development Selection Report (3)and is similar to the layout described in (i)above,except that the right side of the dam has been rotated clockwise,the axis relocated upstream and the spi llway changed to a chute and fl i P bucket.The revised dam alignment resulted in a slight reduction in total dam volume compared to the above alter- native.A localized downstream curve was introduced in the dam close to the ri ght abutment in order to reduce the length of the spillway.The alignment of the spillway is almost parallel to the downstream section of the river and it discharges into a pre-excavated plunge pool in the river approximately 800 feet downstream from the fl i P bucket. This type of spillway should be considerably less costly than one incorporating a stilling basin,provided that ex- cessive pre-excavation of bedrock within the plunge pool area is not required.Careful design of the bucket will be required however,to prevent excessive erosion downstream causing undermining of the valley sides and/or build up of material downstream which could cause elevation of the tailwater levels. (iii)Alternatives 2 through 20 Alternative 2 consists of a left bank cascade spillway with the main dam axis curving downstream at the abutments.The cascade sp t l lway would require an extremely 1argevol ume of -....rock-excavation~but"it-i-sproba ble-th-at--mos-t--of-th-i-s-mate- rial,with careful scheduling,could be used in the dam. The excavation would cross liThe Fingerbuster ll and extensive dental concrete would be required in that area.In the up- stream portion of the spillway,velocities would be rela- tively high because of the narrow configuration of the channel and erosion could take place in this area in prox- imi ty to the dam. The di scharge from the spillway enters the river perpendicular to the general flow but velocities would be relatively low and should not cause substantial erosion problems.The powerhouse is in the most suitable location for a surface alternative where the bedrock is close to the surface and the overall rock slope is approxi- mately 2H:IV. 9-32 J ] -] 'J ] ] ,.J } .] ) J 1 J "---"---- ) J l 1 ] I u u u ) J Alternative 2A is similar to Alternative 2 except that the upper end of the channel is divided and separate control structures are provided.This division would allow the use of one structure or upstream channel whi 1e mai ntenance or remedial work is being performed on the other. Alternative 2B is similar to Alternative 2 except that the cascade spillway is replaced by a double stilling basin type structure.This spillway is somewhat longer than the similar type of structure on the right bank in the alterna- tive described in (i)above.However,the slope of the ground is less than the rather steep right bank and thus, it may be easier to construct,a factor which may partly miti gate the cost of the longer structure.The di scharge is at a sharp angle to the river and being more concen- trated than the cascade could cause erosion of the opposite bank. Alternative 2C is a derivative of 2B with a similar ar- rangement,except that the double stilling basin spillway is reduced in size and augmented by an additional emergency spillway in the form of an inclined,unlined rock channel. Under thi s arrangement the concrete spi llway acts as the main spillway,passing the 1:10,000 year design flood with greater flows passed down the unlined channel which is closed at its upstream end by an erodable fuse plug.The problems of erosion of the opposite bank still remain,al- though these could be overcome by excavati on and/or slope protection.Erosion of the chute would be extreme for sig- nificant flows,although it is highly unlikely that this emergency spillway would ever be used. Alternative 20 replaces the cascade of Alternative 2 with a lined chute and flip bucket.The comments relative to the fl iP bucket are the same as for Alternat ive 1 except that the left bank location in this instance requires a longer chute,partly offset by lower construction costs because of the fl atter slope.The fl iP bucket di scharges into the river at an angle which may cause erosion of the opposite bank.The underground powerhouse is located on the ri ght bank, an arrangement which provides an overall reduction of the length of the water passages. (iv)Alternative 3 This arrangement has a dam axis location slightly upstream from Alternative 2, but retains the downstream curve at the abutments.The main spillway is an unlined rock cascade on the left bank which passes the design flood.Discharges beyond the 1:10,000 year flood would be discharged through the auxiliary concrete-lined chute and flip bucket spillway on the right bank. A gated control structure is provided for this auxiliary spillway which gives it the flexibility 9-33 (v)Alternative 4 to be used as a backup if maintenance should be required on the main spillway.Erosion of the cascade may be a pro- blem,as mentioned previously,but erosion downstream should be a less important consideration because of the low unit discharge and the infrequent operation of the spill- way.The diversion tunnels are situated in the right abut- ment, as with previous arrangements,and are of similar cost for all these alternatives. This alternative involves rotating the axis of the main dam so that the left abutment is relocated approximately 1000 feet downstream from its Alternative 2 location.The relo- cation results in a reduction in the overall dam quantities but would require siting the impervious core of the dam directly over the "Fi ngerbuster"shear zone at maximum dam height.The left bank spillway,consisting of chute and fl iP bucket,is reduced in 1ength compared to other 1eft bank 1ocat ions,as are the power faci 1ity water passages. The diversion tunnels are situated on the left bank;there is no advantage to a right bank location,since the tunn~ls are of similar length owing to the overall downstream relo- cation of the dam.Spillways and power facilities would also be lengthened by a right bank location with this dam configuration. ) ]' 1 'J J ·] J J -J 1 J ) J _.,-~._- .1 J J ·) ·) )9-34 (c)Selection of Schemes for Further Study A basic consideration during design development was that the main dam core should not cross the major shear zones because of the ob- vious problems with treatment of the foundation.Accordingly, there is very little scope for realigning the main dam apart from a slight rotation to place it more at right angles to the river. Locati on of the spi 11 way on the right bank results ina shorter distance to the river and allows discharges almost parallel to the genera 1 direction of ri ver flow.The double sti 11 i ng bas n ar- ······-----range-menfwoura--6e-extremeTYeXpensi ve,particuTarlyrrTE must-Be designed to pass the probable maximum flood.An alternative such as 2C would reduce the magnitude of design flood to be passed by the spillway but would only be acceptable if an emergency spillway with a high degree of operational predictability could be con- structed.A fl iP bucket spi 11 way on the ri ght bank, di schargi ng directly down the river,would appear to be an economic arrange- ment, although some scour might occur in the plunge pool area.A cascade spillway on the left bank could be an acceptable solution providing most of the excavated material could be used in the dam, and adequate rock conditions exist. ( I (I I I ( IlJ [J (J I_J ) The length of diversion tunnels can be decreased if they are located on the right bank. In addition,the tunnels would be accessible by a preliminary access road from the north,which is the most likely route.This location would also avoid the area of "The Fingerbuster"and the steep cliffs which would be encountered on the left side close to the downstream dam toe. The underground configuration assumed for the powerhouse in these preliminary studies allows for location on either side of the river with a minimum of interference with the surface structures. Four of the precedi ng 1ayouts,or vari at ions of them, were sel- ected for further study: (i)A variation of the double stilling basin scheme, but with a single stilling basin main spillway on the right bank, a rock channel and fuse plug emergency spillway,a left bank underground powerhouse and a right bank diversion scheme; (ii)Alternative 1 with a right bank flip bucket spillway,an underground powerhouse on the left bank, and right bank di- version; (iii)A variation of Alternative 2 with a reduced capacity main spillway and a right bank rock channel with a fuse plug serving as an emergency spillway;and (iv)Alternative 4 with a left bank rock cascade spillway,a right bank underground powerhouse,and a right bank diver- si on. 9.14 -Intermediate Review For the intermediate review process,the four schemes selected as a re- sult of the preliminary review were examined in more detail and modi- fied.A description of each of the schemes is given below and shown on Plates 9.4 through 9.9.The general locations of the upstream and downstream shear zones shown on these plates are approximate,and have been refined on the basis of subsequent field investigations for the design studies described in Section 12. (a)Description of Alternative Schemes The four schemes are shown on Plates 9.4 through 9.9: (i)Scheme WP1 (Plate 9.4) This scheme is a refinement of Alternative 1. The upstream slope of the dam is flattened from 2.5:1 to 2.75:1.This conservative approach was adopted to provide an assessment of the possible impacts on project layout of conceivable measures which prove necessary in dealing with severe earthquake design conditions.Uncertainty with regard to 9-35 the nature of river alluvium also led to the location of the cofferdams outside the limits of the main dam embank- ment.As a result Of these conditions,the intake portals of the divers i on tunnel s on the ri ght bank are al so moved upstream from "The Fi ns",A chute spillway with a fl iP bucket is located on the ri ght bank.The underground powerhouse is located on the left bank. (ii)Scheme WP2 (Plates 9.6 and 9.7) This scheme is derived from the double stilling basin lay- out.The main dam and diversion facilities are similar to Scheme WPI except that the downstream cofferdam is relocat- ed further downstream from the spillway outlet,and the di versi on tunnel s are correspondi ngly extended.The mai n spillway is located on the right bank, but the two stilling basins of the preliminary DSR scheme are combined into a single stilling basin at the river level.An emergency spillway is also located on the right bank, and consists of a channel excavated in rock,discharging downstream from the area of the relict channel.The channel is closed at its upstream end by a compacted earthfill fuse plug and is capable of discharging the flow differential between the probable maximum flood and the l:lO,OOO-year design flood of the main spillway.The underground powerhouse is located on the left bank. (iii)Scheme WP3 (Plates 9.5 and 9.6) This scheme is similar to Scheme WPI in all respects,ex- cept that an emergency spillway is added, cons ist i ng of right bank rock channel and fuse plug. (iv)Scheme WP4 (Plates 9.8 and 9.9) The dam location and geometry for Scheme WP4 are similar to that for the other schemes.The diversion is on the right bank and discharges downstream from the powerhouse tailrace outlet ~A-rock··cascadespi-l-lwayi-s--loeated--on--the--left bank and is served by two separate control structures with downstream stilling basins.The underground powerhouse is located on the right bank. (b)Comparison of Schemes The main dam is in the same location and has the same configura- tion for each of the four layouts considered.The cofferdams have been located outside the limits of the main dam in order to allow more extensive excavation of the alluvial material and to ensure a sound rock foundation beneath the complete area of the dam.The overall design of the dam is conservative,and it was recognized during the evaluation that savings in both fill and excavation costs can probably be made after more detailed study. 1 r l. 1 I ), ) 1, J ) I J ) J J ) J ) •,I I \I .. I I fl l j () [J r 1u (J The diversion tunnels are located on the right bank.The upstream flattening of the dam slope necessitates the location of the diversion inlets upstream from "The Fins"shear zone which will require extensive excavation and support where the tunnels pass through this extremely poor rock zone and could cause delays in the construction schedule. A low-lying area exists on the right bank in the area of the rel- ict channel and requires an approximately 50-foot high saddle dam for closure,given the reservoir operating level assumed for the comparison study.As discussed in Section 9.5,however,the finally selected reservoir operating level wi 11 require only a nominal freeboard structure at this location. A summary of capital cost estimates for the four alternati ve schemes is given in Table 9.5. The results of this intermediate analysis indicate that the chute spillway with flip bucket (Scheme WPl)is the least costly spill- way alternative. The scheme has the additional advantage of relatively simple oper- ating characteristics.The control structure has provision for surcharging to pass the design flood.The probable maximum flood can be passed by additional surcharging up to the crest level of the dam.In Scheme WI?3 a similar spillway is provided,except that the control structure is reduced in size and discharges above the routed design flood are passed through the rock channel emer- gency spillway.The arrangement in Scheme WPI does not provide a backup facility to the main spillway,so that if repairs caused by excessive pl unge pool erosion or damage to the structure itself require removal of the spillway from service for ·any length of time,no alternative discharge facility would be available.The additional spillway of Scheme WP3 would permit emergency discharge if it were required under extreme circumstances. The stilling basin spillway (Scheme WP2)would reduce the poten- tial for extensive erosion downstream,but high velocities in the lower part of the chute could cause cavitation even with the pro- vision for aeration of the discharge.This type of spillway would be very costly,as can be seen from Table 9.5. The feasibility of the rock cascade spillway is entirely dependent on the quality of the rock,which dictates the amount of treatment required for the rock surface and also the proportion of the exca- vated material which can be used in the dam.For determining the capital cost of Scheme WP4,conservative assumptions were made re- garding surface treatment and the portion of material that would have to be wasted. 9-37 The diversion tunnels are located on the right bank for all alter- natives examined in the intermediate review.For Scheme WP2,the downstream portals must be located downstream from the stilling basin,resulting in an increase of approximately 800 feet in the 1ength of the tunnels.The 1eft bank 1ocat i on of the powerhouse requires its placement close to a suspected shear zone, with the tailrace tunnels passing through this shear zone to reach the river.A longer access tunnel is also reqUired,together with an additional 1,000 feet in the length of the tailrace.The left- side location is remote from the main access road,which will pro- bably be on the north side of the river,as will the transmission corridor. (c)Selection of Schemes for Further Study Examination of the technical and economic aspects of Scheme WP1 through WP4 indicates there is little scope for adjustment of the dam axis owi ng to the confi nement imposed by the upstream and downstream shear zones.In addition,passage of the diversion tunnels through the upstream shear zone could result in signifi- cant delays in construction and additional cost. From a comparison of costs in Table 9.5,it can be seen that the flip bucket type spillway is the most economical, but because of the potential for erosion under extensive operation it is undesir- able to use it as the only discharge facility.A mid-Jevel re- 1ease wi 11 be requtr ed for emergency drawdown of the reservoir, and use of this release as the first-stage service spillway with the flip bucket asa backup facility would combine flexibility and safety of operation with reasonable cost.The emergency rock channel spillway would be retained for discharge of flows above the routed 1:10,000-year flood. The stilling basin spillway is very costly and the operating head of 800 feet is beyond precedent experience.Erosi on downstream should not be a problem but cavitation of the chute could occur. Scheme WP2 was therefore eliminated from further consideration. The cascade spiTlway was ····a-rso·not---favoreCi-for t-echni-c·a-'·andeco-,;; nomic reasons.However,this arrangement does have an advantage in that it prOVides a means of preventing nitrogen supersaturation in the downstream discharges from the project which could be harm- ful to the fish population,as discussed in Section 9.10.A cas- cade configuration would reduce the dissolved nitrogen content, and hence,this alternative was retained for further evaluation. The capacity of the cascade was reduced and the emergency rock channel spillway was included to take the extreme floods. The results of the intermediate review indicated that the follow- ing components should be incorporated into any scheme carried for- ward for final review: ,I J ), 1 1 l 1 ) l ) l I_.._---~_._._.-- ) ) J ) ) fl [ 1I ',) IlI, (j Ii (] -Two diversion tunnels located on the right bank of the river; -An underground powerhouse also located on the right bank; -An emergency spillway,comprising a rock channel excavated on the ri ght bank and di schargi ng well downstream from the ri ght abutment.The channel is sealed by an erodible fuse plug of im- pervi ous materi al desi gned to fail if overtopped by the reser- voir;and - A compacted earthfill and rockfill dam situated between the two major shear zones which traverse the project site. As discussed above,two specific alternative methods exist with respect to routing of the spillway design flood and minimizing the adverse effects of nitrogen supersaturation on the downstream fish population.These alternatives are: - A chute spillway with flip bucket on the right bank to pass the spillway design flood,with a mid-level release system designed to operate for floods wi th a frequency of up to about 1:50 years;or -A cascade spillway on the left bank. Accordingly,two schemes were developed for further evaluation as part of the final review process.These schemes are described separately in the paragraphs below. 9.15 -Final Review The two schemes considered in the final review process were essentially deviations of Schemes WP3 and WP4. I ) \J (J J (a)Scheme WP3A (Plate 9.10) This scheme is a modified version of Scheme WP3 described in Section 9.14.Because of scheduling and cost considerations,it is extremely important to maintain the diversion tunnels down- stream from liThe Fins.1I It is also important to keep the dam axis as far upstream as possible to avoid congestion of the downstream structures.For these reasons,the inlet portals to the diversion tunnels were located in the sound bedrock forming the downstream boundary of "The Fins,II The upstream cofferdam and mai n dam are maintained in the upstream locations as shown on Plate 9.10.As mentioned previously,additional criteria have necessitated modi- fications in the spillway configuration,and low-level and emer- gency drawdown outlets have been introduced. The main modifications to the scheme are as follows: 9-39 (i)Mai n Dam Continuing preliminary design studies and review of world practice suggest that an upstream slope of 2.4H:IV would be acceptable for the rock shell.Adoption of this slope re- sults not only in a reduction in dam fill volume but also in a reduction in the base width of the dam which permits the main project components to be located between the major shear zones. The downstream slope of the dam is retained as 2H:IV.The cofferdams remain outside the limits of the dam in order to allow complete excavation of the riverbed alluvium. (ii ) Diversion In the intermediate review arrangements,diversion tunnels passed through the broad structure of 'The Fins,II an i n- tensely sheared area of breccia,gouge, and infills.Tun- neling of this material would be difficult,and might even require excavation in open cut from'the surface.High cost would be involved,but more importantly would be the time taken for construction in this area and the possibility of unexpected delays.For this reason,the inlet portals have been relocated downstream from this zone with the tunnels located closer to the river and crossing the main system of jointing at approximately 45°. This arrangement allows for shorter tunnels with a more favorable orientation of the inlet and outlet portals with respect to the river flow directions. A separate low-level inlet and concrete-lined tunnel is provided,leading from the reservoir at approximate Eleva- tion 1550 feet to downstream of the diversion plug where it merges with the diversion tunnel closest to the river. This low-level tunnel is designed to pass flows up to 6000 cfs during reservoir filling.It will also pass up to 30,000 cfs under 500-foot head to allow emergency draining -..------~-----------of-th-e-Teservoir-as .discnssed-i-n-Sect-i-on-9.9.----_.. Initial closure is made by lowering the gates to the tunnel located closest to the river and constructing a concrete closure plug in the tunnel at the location of the grout curtain underlying the core of the main dam.On completion of the plug,the low-level release is opened and controlled discharges are passed downstream.The closure gates within the second diversion tunnel portal are then closed and a concrete closure plug constructed in 1 ine with the grout curtain.After closure of the gates,filling of the reser- voir would commence. I j 1 I I 1 J l ~1 ) ) I -l ) ) I 1 ) f··) I I 1 11 I) (l r I,.J I ) \J [) (iii) (i v) Outlet Facilities As a provision for drawing down the reservoir in case of emergency, a mid-level release is provided.The intake to these facilities is located at depth adjacent to the power facilities intake structures.Flows will then be passed downstream through a concrete-lined tunnel,discharging be- neath the downstream end of the main spillway flip bucket. In order to overcome potential nitrogen supersaturation problems,Scheme WP3A also incorporates a system of fixed cone valves at the downstream end of the outlet facilities. The valves were sized to discharge in conjunction with the powerhouse operating at 7000 cfs capacity,flows up to the equi va 1ent routed 50-year flood.Si x cone va 1ves are required,located on branches off a steel manifold and pro- tected by individual upstream closure gates.The valves are partly incorporated into the mass concrete block form- ing the flip bucket of the main spillway.The rock down- stream is protected from erosion by a concrete facing slab anchored back to the sound bedrock. Spi 11 ways As discussed in Section 9.10 above,the designed operation of the main spillway facilities was arranged to limit dis- charges of potentially ni trogen-supersaturated water from Watana to flows having an equivalent return period greater than 1:50 years. The main chute spillway and flip bucket discharge into an excavated plunge pool in the downstream river bed.Re- 1eases are controlled by a three-gated ogee structure lo- cated adjacent to the outlet facilities and power intake structure just upstream from the darn centerl t'ne ,The de- sign discharge is approximately 114,000 cfs corresponding to the routed l:lO,OOO-year flood (145,000 cfs)reduced by the 31,000 cfs flows attributable to outlet and power fa- cilities discharges.The plunge pool is formed by excavat- ing the alluvial river deposits to bedrock.Since the exca- vated plunge pool approaches the limits of the calculated maximum scour hole,it is not anticipated that,given the infrequent discharges,significant downstream erosion will occur. The emergency spillway is provided by means of a channel excavated in rock on the right bank,discharging well down- stream from the right abutment in the direction of Tsusena Creek.The channel is sealed by an erodible fuse plug of impervious material designed to fail if overtopped by the reservoir,although some preliminary excavation may be necessary.The crest level of the plug will be set at Ele- vation 2230, well below that of the main dam.The channel will be capable of passing the excess discharge of floods 9-41 greater than the 1:10,000-year flood up to the probable maximum flood of 310,000 cfs. (v)Power Facilities The power intake is set slightly upstream from the dam axis deep within sound bedr-ock at the downstream end of the approach channel.The intake consists of six units with provision in each unit for drawing flows from a variety of depths covering the complete drawdown range of the reser- voir.This facility also provides for drawing water from the different temperature strata withi n the upper part of the reservoir and thus regulating the temperature of the downstream discharges close to the natural temperatures of the river.For this preliminary conceptual arrangement, flow withdrawals from different levels are achieved by a series of upstream vertical shutters moving in a single set of guides and operated to form openi ngs at the required level.Downstream from these shutters each unit has a pair of wheel-mounted closure gates which will isolate the indi- vidual penstocks. The six penstocks are 18-foot-diameter,concrete-lined tunnels inclined at 55° immediately downstream from the in- take to a nearly horizontal portion leading to the power- house. This horizontal portion is steel-lined for 150 feet upstream from the turbine units to extend the seepage path to the powerhouse and reduce the flow within the fractured rock area caused by blasting in the adjacent powerhouse cavern. The six 170 MW turbine/generator units are housed within the major powerhouse cavern and are serviced by an overhead crane which runs the length of the powerhouse and into the service area adjacent to the units.Switchgear,mai nten- ance room and offices are located within the main cavern, with the transformers situated downstream ina separate gallery excavated above the tailrace tunnels"Six inclined -~-tunne-l-s--Gal"-I"-y--the--Go nne Gt-i-n g..-0u5--du G-ts-fl"-om--the-mai-npowel"- hall to the transformer gallery.A vertical elevator and vent shaft run from the power cavern to the main office building and control room located at the surface.Vertical cable shafts,one for each pair of transformers,connect the transformer gallery to the switchyard di rect ly over- head.Downstream from the transformer gallery,the under- lying draft tube tunnels merge into two surge chambers, one chamber for three draft tubes,which also house the draft tube gates for isolating the units from the tailrace.The gates are operated by an overhead traveling gantry located in the upper part of each of the surge chambers.Emerging from the ends of the chambers,two concrete-l i ned, low- pressure tailrace tunnels carry the discharges to the river.Because of space restrictions at the river,one of 1 I I I I 'l 1 I 1 l .J ,-_.__~~~..- ) J J j l \ j f 1 I ) these tunnels has been merged with the downstream end of the diversion tunnel.The other tunnel emerges in a separ- ate portal with provision for the installation of bulkhead gates. The ori entati on of water passages and underground caverns is such as to avoid,as far as possible,a1ignrnent of the main excavations with the major joint sets as described in Section 9.3. fl I) (vi)Access Access is assumed to be from the north (right)side of the river.Permanent access to structures close to the river is by a road along the right downstream river bank and then via a tunnel passing through the concrete forming the flip bucket.A tunnel from this point to the power cavern pro- vides for vehicular access.A secondary access road across the crest of the dam passes down the left bank of the val- ley and across the lower part of the dam. (b)Scheme WP4A (Plate 9.11) This scheme is similar in most respects to Scheme WP3A previously discussed,except for the spillway arrangements. (i)Ma in Dam The main dam axis is similar to that of Scheme WP3A,except for a sl ight downstream rotation at the 1eft abutment at the spillway control structures. (ii)Diversion The diversion and low level releases are the same for the two schemes. (iii)Outlet Facilities The outlet facil Hies used for emergency drawdown are sep- arate from the main spillway for this scheme.The outlet facilities consists of a low-level gated inlet structure discharging up to 30,000 cfs into the river through a con- crete-lined,free-flow tunnel with a ski jump flip bucket. This facility may also be operated as an auxiliary outlet to augment the main left bank spillway. (iv) Spill way s The main left bank spillway is capable of passing a flow equivalent to the 1:10,000-year flood through a of 50-foot drops into shallow pre-excavated p1 unge The emergency spillway is designed to operate during of greater magnitude up to and including the PMF. 9-43 design ser ies pools. floods (c) Main spillway discharges are controlled by a broad multi- gated control structure discharging into a shallow stilling basin.The feasibility of this arrangement is governed by the qual ity of the rock in the area,requiri ng both dura- bility to withstand erosion caused by spillway flows,and a high percentage of sound rockfill material that can be used from the excavation directly in the main dam. On the basis of the site information developed concurrently with the general arrangement studi es ,it became apparent that the major shear zone known to exist in the left bank area extended further downstream than initial studies have indi cated.The cascade spi 11 way channel was therefore lengthened to avoid the shear area at the lower end of the cascade.The arrangement shown on Pl ate 9.11 for Scheme WP4A does not reflect this relocation,which would increase the overall cost of the scheme. The emergency spillway consisting of rock channel and fuse plug is similar to that of the right bank spillway scheme. (v)Power Facilities The power facilities are similar to those in Scheme WP3A. Evaluation of Final Alternative Schemes An evaluation of the dissimilar features for each arrangement (the mai n spi llways and the discharge. arrangements at the downstream end of the outl ets)i ndi cates a savi ng in capital cost of $197,000,000,excluding contingencies and indirect cost,in favor of Scheme WP3A.If this difference is adjusted for the savings associated with using an appropriate proportion of excavated material from the cascade spillway as rockfill in the main dam, this represents a net overall cost difference of approximately $110,000,000 including contingencies,engineering,and administra- tion costs. the qual ity of the rock in the downstream area on the 1eft bank, it is known that a major shear zone runs through and is adjacent to the area presently allocated to the spillway in Scheme WP4. This would require relocating the left bank cascade spillway several hundred feet farther downstream into an area where the rock quality is unknown and the topography less suited to the gentle overall slope of the cascade.The cost of the excavation would substantially increase compared to previous assumptions, irrespective of the rock quality.In addition,the resistance of the rock to eros i on and the suitabi 1ity for use as excavated material in the main dam would become less certain.The economic feasibility of this scheme is .largely predicated on this last factor,since the ability to use the material as a source of rock- fill for the main dam represents a major cost saving. 9-44 . 1 1 ] .\ J 1 I .J 1 I 1 1 j ) I l l l ...~1 f ) I I f] I) I J In conjunction with the main chute spillway,the problem of the occurrence of nitrogen supersaturation can be overcome by the use of a regularly operated dispersion type valve outlet facility in conjunction with the main chute spillway.As this scheme presents a more economic solution with fewer potential problems concerning the geotechnical aspects of its design,the right bank chute arrangement (Scheme WP3A)has been adopted as the final selected scheme. 9-45 1 1 l H 'j I ;;':;'\ ·r J I l 1 1 ......."..•_......._.._.._._............___....._-_._._-~----__._.._.~__---_~ 'J 1 r \ -\ flI '.) 1\!, [J ) LIST OF REFERENCES 1.Acres American Incorporated,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,1980- 81 Geotechnical Report, prepared for the Alaska Power Author- ity,February 1982. 2.Woodward-Clyde Consultants,Final Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project,prepared for Acres American Incorporated,February 1982. 3.Acres American Incorporated,Susitna Hydroelectric Project, Development Selection Report, prepared for the Alaska Power Authority,December 1981. J .l ; I :l 1 1 J I j l ,I \ 1 1 I]I ) TABLE 9.1:COMBINED WATANA AND DEVIL CANYON OPERATION Watana Dam Watana*Dev il Canyon*Total Average Crest Elevat ion Cost Cost Cost Annual Energy (f't MSL)($x 106 )($x 10 6)($x 10 6 )(GWh) 2240 (2215 reservoir elevation)4,076 1,711 5,787 6,809 2190 (2165 reservoir elevation)3,785 1,711 5,496 6,586 2140 (2115 reservoir elevation)3,516 1,711 5,227 6,264 Watana Project alone (prior to year 2002) Crest Elevat ion (f't MSL) 2240 2190 2140 Average Annual Energy (GWh) 3,542 3,322 3,071 *Estimated costs in January 1982 dollars,based on preliminary conceptual designs,including relict channel drainage blanket and 20 percent cant ingenc ies. TABLE 9.2:PRESENT WORTH OF PRODUCTION COSTS I 1IIf Watana Dam Crest Elevat ion (ft MSL) 2240 (reservoir elevat ion 2215) 2190 (reservoir elevation 2165) 2140 (reservoir elevat ion 2115) *LTPW in January 1982 dollars. Present Worth of Productign Costs ($x 10 7,123 7,052 7,084 River Flows TABLE 9.3:DESIGN DATA AND DESIGN CRITERIA FOR FINAL REVIEW OF LAYOUTS J 1 } Average flow (over 30 years of record): Probable maximum flood (routed): Maximum inflow with return period of 1:10,000 years: Maximum 1:10,000-year routed discharge: Maximum flood with return period of 1:500 years: Maximum flood with return period of 1:50 years: Reservoir normal maximum operating level: Reservoir minimum operating level: Dam Type: Crest elevat ion at point of maximum super elevat ion: Height: Cutoff and foundation treatment: Upstream slope: Downstream slope: Crest width: Diversion Cofferdam type: Cutoff and foundation: Upstream cofferdam ~rest elevation: Downstream cofferdam crest elevat ion: Maximum pool level during construction: Tunnels Final closure: Releases during impounding: Spillway Design floods: Main spillway -Capacity: -Control structure: Emergency spillway -Capacity: - Type: Power Intake Type: Number of intakes: Draw-off requirements: Drawdown: 7,860 cfs 326,000 cfs 156,000 cfs 115,000 cfs 116,000 cfs 87,000 cfs 2215 ft 2030 ft Rockfill 2240 ft 890 ft above foundat ion Core founded on rock;grout curt ain and downstream drains 2.4H:1V 2H:1V 50 ft Rock fill Slurry trench to bedrock 1585 ft 1475 ft 1580 ft Concrete lined, Mass concrete plugs 6,000 Gf~maximum via bypass to outlet structure Passes PMF,preserving integrity of dam with no loss of life Passes routed 1:10,000-year flood with no damage to structures Routed 1:10,000-year flood with 5 ft surcharge Gated ogee crests PMF minus 1:10,000 year Fuse plug Reinforced concrete 6 Multi-level corresponding to temperature strat a 185 feet J c:.:!." ,:j I \I, IJ TABLE 9.3:(Cont'd) Penstocks Type: Number of penstocks: Powerhouse Type: Transformer area: Control room and administration: Access -Vehicle: -Personnel: Power Plant Type of turbines: Number and rating: Rated net head: Design flow: Normal maximum gross head: Type of generator: Rated output: Power factor: Frequency: Transformers: Tailrace Water passages: Surge: Average tailwater elevation (full generation): Concrete-lined tunnels with downstream steel liners 6 Underground Separate gallery Surface Rock tunnel Elevator from surface Francis 6 x 170 MW 690 ft 3,500 cfs per unit 745 ft Vertical synchronous 190 MVA 0.9 60 HZ 13.8-345 kV,3-phase 2 concrete-lined tunnels Separate surge chambers 1458 ft PRELIMINARY REVIEW Technical feasibility Compatibility of layout with known geological and topographical site features Ease of construction Physical dimensions of component structures in certain locations Obvious cost differences of comparable structures Environmental accept- ability Operating characteristics TABLE 9.4:EVALUATION CRITIERA INTERMEDIATE REVIEW Technical feasibility Com pat ibility of layout with known geological and topographical site features Ease of construct ion Overall cost Env ironment al accept- ability Operating characteristics Impact on construction schedule FINAL REVIEW Technical feasibility Compat ibility of layout with known geological and topographical site features Ease of construction Overall cost Environmental impact Mode of operation of spill- ways Impact on construct ion schedule Design and operat ing .lJm.i.t a- tions for key structures :\ 1 J TABLE 9.5:SUMMARY OF COMPARATIVE COST ESTIMATES INTERMEDIATE REVIEW OF ALTERNATI~E ARRANGEMENTS (January 1982 $x 10 ) WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 ,Diversion 101.4 112.6 101.4 103.1 I :I Service Spillway 128.2 208.3 122.4 267.2 Emergency Spillway 46.9 46.9 Tailrace Tunnel 13.1 13.1 13.1 8.0 Credit for Use of Rock in Dam -i.!.hl)~)~)(72.4) Total Non-Common Items 231.0 349.7 265.0 305.9 Common Items 1643.0 1643.0 1643.0 1643.0------ Subtotal 1874.0 1992.7 1908.0 1948.9 Camp &Support Costs (169~)299.8 318.8 305.3 311.8 Subtotal 2173.8 2311.5 2213.3 2260.7 Cant ingency (2m~)434.8 462.3 442.7 452.1--------- Subtotal 2608.6 1773.8 2656.0 2712.8 Engineering and Administ rat ion (12.590 326.1 346.7 332.0 339.1 TOTAL 2934.7 3120.5 2988.0 3051.9 .II , I) II J I .I I f J ,1 1 -J \.< j 1 GEOLOGIC SECTION LOCATION FIGURE 9.1 SHEAR, WIDTH GREATER THAN 10FEET, VERTICAL UNLESS DIP SHOWN SHEAR, WIDTH LESS THAN 10 FEET, INCLINED,VERTICAL,EXTENT WHERE KNOWN FRACTURE ZONE, WIDTH GREATER THAN 10 FEET,VERTICAL UNLESS DIP SHOWN FRACTURE ZONE, WIDTH LESS THAN 10 FEET, INCLINED, VERTICAL EXTENT WHERE KNOWN JOINTS: INCLINED, OPEN INCLINED, VERTICAL (SETS I AND II ONLY, EXCEPT FOR OPEN JOINTS) ALTERATION ZONE, WIDTH AS SHOWN DIORITE TO QUARTZ DIORITE,INCLUDES MINOR GRANODIORITE ANDESITE PORPHYRY,INCLUDES MINOR DACITE AND LATITE DIORITE PORPHYRY OTHER: CONTACTS: J45 LITHOLOGIC, DASHED WHERE INFERRED, - DIP WHERE KNOWN . STRUCTURE: LEGEND LITHOLOGY: NOTES I.ADDITIONAL GEOLOGIC DATA FROM COE,I978, GEOLOGIC FIELD 800KS I THRU 28. 2.TOPOGRAPHY FROM COE,I978,1"=200'. 3.EXTENT OF SHEARS,FRACTURE ZONES,AND ALTERATION ZONES ARE INFERRED 8ASED ON GEOLOGIC MAPPING AND SUBSURFACE EXPLORATIONS, AND ARE SUBJECT TO VERIFICATION THROUGH FUTURE DETAILED INVESTIGATIONS. 4. DETAILS OF GEOLOGIC FEATURES PRESENTED IN 1980-81 GEOTECHNICAL REPORT. WATANA GEOLOGIC MAP ,I 0 0 0s0 0q q,.:lD '"~v v....llJ llJII + REFERENCE:BASE MAP FROM COE,I978 -1"=200'WATANA TOPOGRAPHY,SHEET 8 a 13 OF 26, COORDINATESIN FEET,ALASKA STATE PLANE (ZONE4) Ii 3,225,000 - 4o SCALE Ei~~~iiiiiiii;;;;;;dT MILES DETAILED DISCPRESENTEDINU~~I~~9~::~EG~~~ICT CHANNELECHNICALREPORT. FIGURE 9.2 SCALE 2200~ o i! w LEGEND ~__~_20~-___-_~OP OF BEDROCKoFOOTCONTOURCSONTOUR INTER¥. \90 0--- DASHED. AL 50 FEET ,,,0 """"""'."~. /:::::;:;::;;;;;;;;;=::::::-../~..=",.,..•••~•••""~-...._n"0"',,~~~ioo reer..=-,~~"OO~W...Wi',"'"a,_W"" US/TNA'--::::'••.~~t .t PROALERIVER'~OR CROSS-SECTION LO CATION OR BEDROCKRELICT w DM-A a B ,-. N 3,234,000 N 3,232.QOO N 3.230000 143,225.000 N3,225.QOO N 3224.000 I M=61/4 DAMPING =0.10 SO!!!PERCENTILE /V ...........r-, //MEAN \ V ................\ /V/'<,,\ ap=0.71 //V V "ii"P'=0.55 I"\. ./'~~~ ~~ ~t:::::::: o C/) zo I- ~ a::w ..J W o o ~ ..J ~a:: I- o w a, C/) 2 o 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3 PER 100 (SEC) 0.5 2 5 10 MEAN RESPONSE SPECTRA AT DEVIL CANYON AND WATANA. SITES FOR TERRAIN SAFETY EVALUATION EARTHQUAKE FIGURE 9.3 7300 i ] 72.00 I II 7100 I 1 --I 1 CDO x fJ ..,.. lJ)7000I- lJ) 0u z 0 i=o :::> 0 0 ll::6900a.. LL. 0 ]]::I: l- ll:: 0 ~ \1 I-6800zw lJ) W ll::a.. 6700IIJ ../~ '-----~»> IJ LJ I) 6600 6500 2.140 2.160 2180 2200 DAM CREST ELEVATION 2220 ( FE ET ) 22.40 2.260 WATANA RESERVOIR DAM CREST ELEVATION / PRESENT WORTH OF PRODUCTION COSTS FIGURE 9.4 • o r-1 1600 .I \ \ \ \ \ II r.:l \ -0 -0 \~~LESS THAN 3 I j ~~\ENTRANCE Co -;Xl \SUBMERGED~("\ --1550 ~ I] u, z 0 fi> l.lJ ..J l.lJ l.lJ Co) e:( U. 0:: :J en 0:: l.lJ l- e:( ~ lJ 1500 TYPICAL TUNNEL SECTION 1450 L-.-..L--'---L --JL ---' 25 30 35 40 45 TUNNEL DIAMETER (FT.) NOTE FOR 80,000 CFS WATANA DIVERSION HEADWATER ELEVATION /TUNNEL DIAMETER FIGURE 9.5 11I. I I [] IJ lJ IJ !-=- IJ.. zo f- <l:> W ...J W 1650 1600 1550 1500 VAT '720COST 50XI06 I -- I , lOX 10 6 20X 10 6 30XI06 40XI06 CAPITAL COST $ WATANA DIVERSION UPSTREAM COFFERDAM COSTS FIGURE 9.6 ""¢ ,Lv ~r_~Q O~~/ ~~<c,'v~~~~A "" ~~~~ ~'v ~~~ ;V " 0 TYPICAL TUNNEL SECTION 70 TUNNEL DIAMETER (FT.) 45403530252015 80 60 (J II .-50 CD 0 x /]"'" I- U)40 l] 0o ..J« [! I- a.«o 3-0 [J 20 iJ 10 !J LJ I '\J WATANA DIVERSION TUNNEL COST /TUNNEL DIAM ETER FIGURE 9.7 [i [] 11 I J u u U I 100 .........-------,-----.,.-----,-------,-------, 40 WATANA DIVERSION TOTAL COST /TUNNEL DIAMETER FIGURE 9.8 -'--l-J L--'-~' ---I ---.J -------.i ,---' zzoo.-/ PLATE 9.1 ,ta°O 1600 \60 0 .'1-00 '1-\00 000n: ...___'700 I 200 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT WATANA ARCH DAM ALTERNATIVE ~ o SCALE~j~~~;;;;;;~ 100/ 2200 /p '/ j .: / CLOSURE EMBANKMENT EL 22:30 $WITCHYARD AREA -~~-~~-~~../" <,SUS""..~-••.~ -,~~/VE~-----::. "~-~\f:J00 ~~_......\6 00.r:»:"--...;r--\6 00 "/~\900 ~...'l 1 I/QWITht •.:::<-'j t!Q.I.I!;~r .~..-:'.....THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A /1 ....,-0//PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT )/PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVEg'SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY. ~ 2400 rJ'~ Q -----------2300 ______OZ-\OO ~2200 r L-l,__I -'--'---''---'.l...-.--J ---I ~!.I \\\'t,j~\\ WATANA ALTERNATIVE DAM AXES ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY 'SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ,#' SCALE 0 200 400 FEET I ,sr:P ,1r:P ,.<fl .\iPO .......-~~o~···~ ..--t >;I _\1!P --------",# .r-:<, ,2~oJ ~~--rl '--...,1'1..\---./I _\e....-r ....... §.~8 0 i 0 Q.~a'"l ~;!:;!:;!: '"'"~-'"-,'"~,.p '"'" § ;!: '" (~ /' ~,- ~2~O f7t1f7~-r'I! /~r t=~I ~~N3,229POO::1r;0i ~\j(\~I ("=7 N 3,225,00 ~"'"tk-~~~~~.3,227,000"(./;::;.:.........-=-~~I ...:.~ ~------------ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED PLATE 9.2 I •r i -'--I~ I --.J -. ~ .",;P -~""o~ ----~"'.-~...----------------~.~~ \BOO ,...r. _"If' /#',,po. :;r~~~/'/{,,,P ~~)fr;"""( '" 22.00 ..... ........ ,,,,,/r ALTERNATIVE I ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 2A -> #' 'fP' (SWITOiYARO ALTERNATIVE 20 ~ .,aJ' -J"'" ALTERNATIVE 2C '0./ / """ .",;P ALTERNATIVE 2B a ~/,.P'//?~-=-~.,/;i(~/ ~/ -J? .i'" ........"If' """/ ( ",;P ----ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 4 WATANA PRELIMINARY SCHEMES WATANA PRELIMINARY SCHEMES -~-ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED PLATE 9.3 L-L-L.-J , ,~--'~--' __-.J -2ZS0 ~2300 PLATE 9.4 2\00 r------ -»> fl,Pf,)O «<,>: ~OOr ~~O/ ~O /.,"/ "'~OJ \600 WATANA SCHEME WPI PLAN SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 200 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY , <, #' ~. ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED SCALEO~~s_;;;iij 2100 2150 2200 ,~/ 2250 NOTE THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SITE ,DEVELOPMENTS ONLY _______1750 ------ 1700 _ 16!SO~ 1600 --""- 1!S50----f\... ...-r--.'"OO~~,-2~~-- _~RiVeR BED ALLUVIUM ~fo-,_...-/'X'EXCAVATED IN THIS AREA roR PLUNG:.~ __,'",a<-------~~O ~.'~~~~9::0~ '...,~~O '-'"". / , ~'~1;--- ',,'1<5';. ...r'<'..... "~""'""~ .0-4' I ~ ...o~o,,pO ~~O ____'2.\00 _\~~o ~!_--L_,--------- g~~!~~;4gr:~1~~gE WHEEL GATES PLATE 9.5 WATANA SCHEME WP3 SECTIONS 50 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNAHYDROELECTRIC PROJECT -.......:.._._. -------SOUND ROCK--.......... RIGHT SIDE -....- ~------------ SCALE B0 5 10 FEET SCALE AO~~~i;;;;;;;;;;;:ii 4' ...........Ii~"""~-'"'"I2'n r JvJilI&/kiii\!1\I .i->:----- SECTION C-C SCALE A TYPICAL CHUTE WALL SECTION SCALE B ..!iQill l THIS ORAWING IUUSTRATES A PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY 2.SECTIONS FOR SCHEME WPI ARE SIMILAR EXCEPT THAT GATE STRUCTURE IS ISO' WIDE WITH CREST EL 2150 AND 3-40'WlDEx53'HIGH GATES ....2200 ~ z 5 2150 !i~ w2100 SECTION E-E SCALE A ..--~-~--~---..-..-----.--"0--..-.....--....------:::-------- SECTION B-B SCALE A ------...........--..-- ~C SPILLWAY PROFILE I-~""---""--- SCALE A ~-- ...C 2250 2150 2100 2200 SECTION 0-0 SCALE A ------- EXCAVATE ALLUVIUM<,-__................_/IN RIYERBED »->: ORIGINAL GR~~_~- »>/'/ »>.> I ........-I \\}q H »> ORIGINAL GROUND SURFACE*RIGHT SlOE ..-..--- -<ft'2000 i ~2 1950 1900 "---\<~''''-.~~ ~\-'<,"<,..'..... EL.2225 ..-.;:-------:....._-------=:.::::::::-- ~----- SOUND ROCK- RIGHTSlOE PRESSURE RELIEF DRAINS ORIGINAL GROUNO~.--~--- *--~-~ SECTION A-A SCALE A "'A__-----+Al---r-- I GROUT ~---------------------------------------. R IGINALGROUNG GE "__-=:::____~ •~,.,,""sousn ao••,.~_._._~,-_._--_..-. .---.-_SU~__.~.R~HI.§IDE '~ft~.~~~~-----=-.~...__I I Ir'S-=::::::::::1 ..... 2500 22f50 2200 arso 2100 aoso 20~O 19S0 1900 ml8SO ;; ~1800 ~-~ IT!50 1700 1650 1600 usee ISOO 14!SO 1400 2250 I;;I ----~2200 z l'j ~2150 iil 2100 1 _L_ PLATE 9.6 SUSITNA HYDROaECTRlC PROJECT WATANA SCHEME WP2 a WP3 PLAN a SECTIONS ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ~--ACRES AMERICAN INCORPOftATEO SECTION A-A SCALE"":8 ~,I 3'RIP-RAP,I ~ EL.2222 j ~I Ie:"~'.IIt"\\\.,:--..../ IS I ROCK FILL ~11'6'"<,1 ROCKFILL FILTER ..._-_.__..-_... 50 200 I;;If!2250 z zo ~2200 ~ NOTE THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY SCALEA '1!0!!!!!!!!'!!!ii;;iiiiiiiiii SCALE B ~0!!!!!!!!!!!!5iiiiiiii~ CP~~~ /- 2175~ ~2150~~ CJ GENERAL ARRANGEMENT SCALE: A 2225 v.1f.)' ~ \2200 L_L __ ItIJPRESSURE .REUEF DRAINS I GROUTJ'i, CURTAIN ...::::".... r.2m,GJ:~~~~~RrO~~lnr .-'- -r--"1400 'I !I !I !,!!!I !1 I 500 icoo STATIONING IN FEET 600 2000 2500 -'A -'B SPILLWAY PROFILE ~Ol 7)' ... ~1600 I--I ./I t "z "!1500 1400 O~ ./ .4""1' SECTION A-A SECTION B-B PLATE 9.7 WATANA SCHEME WP2 SECTIONS :SU:)II NA NTUI10RECTRIC PROJECT ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY_.._......._-~ ~ ~o FEET THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A F'REUM1NARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF AlJ'ERNATlVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY 0.!iQ.I!i; SCALE L __ PLATE 9.8 WATANA SCHEME WP4 PLAN 200~OFEET ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT .r>: .>..i->: / \f!Jf;}O -: \f!JOo,~"o/ ,soo J ",04'~ ""..."".... '""" -> ",,4' ~------------ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED -fEL_I030 l 2150_ 2200- In,!700 ! :::=:::::::::: fELI ••O! ?ELI7.0 l .?QOO 2250 "c1",'" NOTE THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY ~ fEuDeD! CASCADE SPILLWAY 0°-"'"~<,'"~-, ,,0",'"I -------...---.... .---/-------.. ./ ~~~ _____2300 ----22~O 0,,0-:': /~"'~~:~OJ0~/\'O":Jo / //~<'.»-:': ___2\!lO 504540 I /F5'OVERBURDEN _...J..----lmf -- - ---·-4---- ---------rCASCADE------.----------------'-------...:...-/------ 1 ...._-----L __---j-----.r FEDROCK SURFACELEFTSIDE '----1.__"-~~/'~-,.:.~-L ___,......._...:.:.::--..~...........t:.:--:<,J~I~N~D~R~UND SURFACE ~--"1 <,••~~R~~rs~~R§ii,~E L-,...............--:----./ -:~----,-...-..."'-.L-,'<;..:::--- EXCAVATION~RIGHT SIDE=?L~~.~,.t:°RI~m~TG~?J!~DSURFACEL <,.:<,r~~VAJ,'~r* ...~.- -.........n ........ 1500 1400 1600 2400 230 200' 220' 2100 zo ~1900 >a ISDO 1700 STATIONING ,IN :FEET 'SPILLWAY'PROFILE SCALE:A ~ 114' =r::::-':~:..T:S:...__ \ ~EL.2IB5 11 ~--._~:~-.~..-._- ,(N~--.------... EL 2120Iei. ano pA GA7E HDIS7S~_____P 8r----~2225 ------,",,"I -----------------rEL2t6S -~ NORMAL MAX.W.L EL 2200 2200 '""¥'" i3 i=~21!50 i=EL 2140~A\la'ilfi:j\\i€'AIKw. 2100 GROUTCURTAIN---;~PRESSURE RELIEF O'hAINS I -'A -'8 SECTION B-B SCALE: B SPILLWAY CONTROL STRUCTURE SCALE:B· PLATE 9.9 WATANA SCHEME WP4 SECTIONS SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ~ ~ THIS DRAWING ILlUSTRATESA PRELIMINARY l:OftCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY SCALE 9 o 200 400 FEET SCAlE A I I o 50 100 FEET i SECTION C-C SCALE:B 30'Wx43'H FIXED WHEEL GATES c .. SECTION A-A SCALE: 8 ,'C --.._r . .~ L-...:...--"'---...r.:I I .__I .50',~~~r=I:-[il:M~\~...~ -l _ _'"H-\----7--0-\- _-"i "'".'\.c4')-'-'-'\.;-.'~,.'"- '"TO'-t :\ I I I'2100 2250 )- ~ ==2200 i3;:: :;21SO ~ ',---L.-...-._~'----~ 200 400 FEET PLATE 9.10 7".O~O~ .><>">: ,,00 / ,.~o/ ,.00 ~oo;- 1750---- ____1700 _ WATANA SCHEME WPM ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNAHYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ->'i>~O '/.'/.<i'/",'"'" ~~ N ALTERNATIVE SITEDEVELOPMENTS ONLY I ACRES AMERICA;-mc'Ofi;CIRATEo ~ ~ ----22"0 ~azoo ---2300 »<./r:rr':J (_/(// )\'::Y'"''J 'v ~-"--J ~-IiliAD -----,~-THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A---/'./II /I )ltV 0 :_'........:..x,PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECTLAYOUT .E PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF L_-'----~ THIS DRAWINGILLUSTRATES A PREUMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FORCOMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY PLATE 9.11 .>",ooor: ,,0 ~ ,q /' 00 /,q /• \'Of:;O »>: 210 0;--- WATANA SCHEME WP4A 200 400 FEET ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ~ .'l.\f:J0 ~~------------ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED 2100/ ~/SO 2200 .... 2200,,0,,,'" /~~TAIL.RACE TUNNEL //30' CIA. 8I:J 1 o~'"( ~ ------2>00 ---2230 .e, I] [J 10 -SELECTION OF DEVIL CANYON GENERAL ARRANGEMENT This section describes the development of the general arrangement of the Devil Canyon project.The site topography,geology,and seismicity of the Devil Canyon site are described relative to the design and ar- rangement of the various site facilities,in a manner similar to that presented in Section 9 for the Watana site.The method of handling floods during construction and subsequent project operation is also outlined in this section. The reservoir level fluctuations and inflow for Devil Canyon will es- s ent l al ly be controlled by operation of the upstream Watana project. This aspect is also briefly discussed in this section.A detailed des- cription of the various project components is given in Section 13. 10.1 -Site Topography The Devil Canyon site is located at river mile 152 of the Susitna River,approximately 32 miles downstream from the Watana site,near the entrance to a 2-mile long,steep-walled canyon. The valley wall on the left side of the river rises very steeply from-Elevations 900 to 1300 on the left bank at a slope of approximately 0.4H:1V to a relatively gently sloping plateau area which reaches Elevation 1600.within the general project area.On the right side,the valley is less pro- nounced,rising at about 1.1H:1V to Elevation 1500,then much more gradually to approximate Elevation 1900. The steep left bank contains overhanging cliffs and detached blocks of rock. 10.2 -Site Geology A detailed description of the site investigations and the geologic and geotechnical conclusions at the Devil Canyon site is provided in the 1980-81 Geotechnical Report (1).The following is a brief summary and interpretation of the findings presented in the Geotechnical Report. (a)Geologic Conditions The overburden and bedrock conditions at the Devil Canyon site are summarized in the following paragraph.A geologic map of the dam- I)site area is shown in Figure 10.1 in this section. IJ IJ I 1iJ I J ( i )Overburden The valley walls at the Devil Canyon site are very steep and are generally covered by a thi n veneer of overburden consisting pr imer il y of talus at the base.The flatter up- 1and areas are covered by 5 to .35 feet of overburden of glacial origin.A topographic depression along the elon- gated 1akes on the south bank has an overburden cover in 10-1 excess of B5 feet of glacial materials.The overburden on the alluvial fan or point bar deposit at the Cheechako Creek con fl uence th i ckens from 100 feet to more th an 300 feet over a distance of less than 400 feet. The river channel alluvium appears to be composed of cob- bles,boulders,and detached blocks of rock and is inferred to be up to'30 feet thick. (ii)Hedrock Lithology The bedrock at the Devil Canyon site is a low-grade meta- morphosed sedimentary rock consisting predominantly of argill ite with interbeds of graywacke.A geologic map of the site is shown in Figure 10.1.The argillite is a fresh,med i um-to-dark gray,th in ly bedded,fine grained argillaceous rock with moderately well-developed foliation parallel to the bedding.The graywacke is a fresh,light gray,mainly fine grained sandstone within an argillaceous matrix.The graywacke is well indurated and exhibits poorly developed to non-existent foliation.The graywacke is interbedded with the argill ite in beds generally less than 6 inches thick.Contacts between beds are tight and both rock types are fresh and hard.Minor quartz veins and stringers are commonly found in the argill ite.These are generally less than 1 foot wide and unfractured with tight contacts.Sulphide mineral izat ion is common with pyrite occurring in as much as 5 percent of the rock. The area has also been intruded by numerous felsic and mafic dikes ranging from 1 inch to 60 feet wide (averaging 20 feet).The dikes have northwest to north orientation (Figure 10.1)with steep dips.When closely fractured they are easily eroded and tend to form steep talus-filled gul- lies,some of which exhibit shearing with the host rock. The felsic dikes are light gray and include aplite and rhyol ite~The mafic dikes are fine grained --and appear to ·--be-ofd+or+~e~odiabas·eeompos+t-ion-.--_.._~---_.._---~.__._._.-----_. (iii)Bedrock Structures Bedding The argillite/graywacke has been completely deformed as evidenced by refolded folds and the development of mul- tiple foliations.The primary foliation parallels the bedding at 035°to 090°,subparallel to the river,and dips 45°to BOoSE (Figure 10.1).Where exposed,the foliation planes appear slaty and phyllitic.The north canyon wall at the dams ite appears to be controlled by the bedding planes. 1 I ) I 1 \ 1 1 1 l 1 l I I ,l l f I II( I l1 IJ I )lJ () LJ and dips 45°to 80 0SE.Where exposed, the foliation planes appear slaty and phyll it i c.Th e north canyon wall at the damsite appears to be controlled by the bedding planes. Joints Four joint sets have been delineated at Devil Canyon. Set I (stri ke 320°to 355°and dips 60°to 70 0NE)and Set II (strike 040°to 065°and dips 40°to 60 0S)are the most significant.Set I joints are the most prominent with spacing of 15 feet to 2 feet,and on the upper canyon walls of the south bank these joints are open as much as 6 inches.Set III is subparallel to the bedding/foliation and,when it intersects with Set I, can cause the formation of loose blocks.Set III joints (strikes 005°to 030°and dip 85°NW to 85°SE)are also often open on the south bank and where they dip towards the river they may create potential slip planes.This set has variable spacing and sporadic distribution.The fourth set is a minor set with low dip angles'and variable strike orientation. Joint spacings measured from the borehole cores range from less than 1 foot to more than 10 feet.The spacing and tightness of the joints increase with depth. Shears and Fracture Zones Shears and fracture zones were encountered in localized areas of the site in both outcrops and boreholes (Figure 10.1).Shears are defined as areas containing breccia, gouge, and/or sl i ckenslides indicating relative move- ment. These zones are soft and friable and are charac- terized by high permeability and core loss during drill- ing.Fracture zones,often encountered in conjunction with the shears,are zones of very closely spaced joints.With depth,these zones become tighter and more widely spaced.Where exposed,they are eroded into deep gullies. The most common trend of these features is northwest, parallel to Joint Set 1.These zones have vertical to steep northeast dips and are generally less than 1 foot wide.Northwest trending shears are also associated with the contacts between the argillite and mafic dikes and are up to 1 foot wide. A second series of shears trend northeasterly,subpara1- 1e1ing the bedding/foliation and Joint Set II,with high 10-3 Several structural features at the Devil Canyon site were investi- gated during the 1980-81 program. In summary,these included the east-west trending sheared and fractured zone beneath the proposed saddle dam area;a bedrock drop-off beneath ~orrow Site G;and bedrock conditions beneath the Susitna River. Seismic refraction and drilling data confirm the existence of a highly sheared and fractured zone on the 1eft bank beneath the proposed saddle dam that generally trends parallel to the river. The dip on this feature is inferred to be parallel or subparallel to the bedding/foliation at approximately 65°to the south.The linear extent of the feature has not been determined but may be up to 2,50U feet.No evidence was found during the 1980-81 program to suggest movement along this feature.This conclusion was con- firmed during the seismic investigations (3).Further investiga- tion of this feature will be required to define its extent and to determine the type of foundation treatment that will be required beneath the saddl edam. These average less than 6anglesoutheasterlydips. inches in width. Structural Features Upstream from the damsite,a several-hundred-foot drop-off in the bedrock surface under the alluvial fan was detected by seismic re- fraction surveys.Land access restrictions imposed during the study prohibited any further investigation of this area.Possible explanation for this apparent anamalous drop-off could be attrib- uted to misinterpretation of the seismic data or else the lower velocity material could be either a highly fractured rock in lieu of soil or an offset of the rock surface caused by faulting.The latter interpretation is unlikely in that work performed (3) in this area concluded that there was no compelling evidence for a fault.Future work remains to be done in this area to more clearly define this feature. (b) Detailed examination of rock core and mapping in the river valley bottom showed no evidence for through going faulting in the river- bed. (c)Ground Water Conditions Ground water migration within the rock is restricted to joints and fractures.It is inferred that the ground water level is a sub- dued replica of the surface topography with the flow towards the river and lakes.Measured water levels in the boreholes varied from ground surface to 120 feet. I \ I I I J (d)Permafrost No permafrost was found in either the bedrock or surficial materi- al at or around the damsite. (e)Permeability kock perme ab i l ity ranges from approximately 1 x 1u-4 ern/sec to 1 x 10-6 cm/sec with lower permeabilities generally at depth. Higher permeabi 1 ity occur in the more weathered fractured rock zones. lj II ( 1 IJ (f) (g) Devil Canyon Reservoir Geology The Devil Canyon reservoir will be confined to a narrow canyon where the topography is controlled by bedrock.The overburden is thin to nonexistent,except in the upper reaches of the reservoir where alluvial deposits cover the valley floor.A large intrusive plutonic body composed predominantly of biotite granodiorite with local areas of quartz diorite and diorite,underlies most of the reservoir and adjacent slopes.This rock 'is light gray to pink, medium grained,hard,massive,and competent.The other rock types in the reservoir is the argillite and graywacke which are exposed at-the damsite.The rock has been isoclinically folded into steeply dipping structures striking generally northeast- southwest.The argi 11 ite has been intruded by mass ive granod io- rite,and as a result,large isolated roof pendants of the argill- ite and graywacke are found locally throughout the entire reser- voir and surrounding areas.The joint measurements at selected areas indicate structural trends simil ar to those at the damsites. Construction Material Investigations A major source of construction materials for the Devil Canyon Project is the alluvial fan deposit,Borrow Site G,which lies near the Cheechako Creek confl uence approximate ly 1,000 feet up- stream from the damsite.The area contains large quantities of sands and gravels with inclusions of boulders and cobbles above the river level. (i)Shell Materials for the Saddle Oam Clean gravel and cobble fill will be obtained from the alluvial fan Site G.This material will be supplemented by rockfill obtained from the excavations of other structures where suitable and economic.Potential sources of rockfill are likely to be the emergency spillway located adjacent to the saddle dam and Quarry Site K (1). 10-5 (ii)Core Material for the Saddle Dam No suitable source for the core material for the saddle dam has been identified at this time near the site.It is, therefore,proposed that the core material ~e transported from Borrow Site D near the Watana site,wher~sufficient quantities of suitable material have been identified.Ad- d it ional invest igat ions should be performed in an attempt to locate a suitable source nearer the Devil Canyon site prior to final design. (iii)Filter Material for the Saddle Dam Filter materials will be obtained by processing deposits in the alluvial fan Borrow Site G,discussed above. (iv)Concrete Aggregate The coarse and fine aggregate for the concrete structures will also be obtained from the Borrow Site G. The results of the laboratory testing indicate that the material from this source is of adequate qua}ity.The gravel particles are generally rounded with accompanying sub anqul ar sands. Petrographic analyses indicate that the material includes quartz diorites,granites,andesites,diorites,dacites, metavolcanics,rocks,aplites,breccias,schists,phill- ites,arqill ites,and amphibol ites.Generally,the mater- i al has 1ess than 2 percent del eter ious const ituents such as chert,muscovite,and argillite. 10.3 -Geotechnical Considerations The geotechnical investigations to date have been primarily directed toward the important geological features which may have significant im- pact on the feasibility of the project.More detaileq investigations, including exploratory adits,will be required prior to the detailed es gn. (a)Arch Uam Foundation and Abutments The geologic and topographic conditions are favorable for an arch dam at the Devil Canyon site.The rock is principally hard,com- petent,and fresh with weathering limited to joints and shear zones.Intrusive mafic and felsic dikes,where present,are hard, and the contact with the parent rock is tight.The orientation of the dikes is generally northwest to north.They will have no im- portant adverse effect on the stability of the abutments.The un- confined compress ive strength of the intact rock ranges between 16,000 psi and 32,000 psi.The stresses imposed by the arch dam are about 1,000 psi or less under normal conditions.Even under 10-6 J I l 'j ] I l 1 ,-'1 '\ 1 i I- I I -I 1 "j 'I iJ [J 1\LJ (b) extreme loading conditions,the stresses will be well within the acceptable limits for bearing considerations.On the right abut- ment,the arch dam thrust block will be seated in good sound rock. On the left side,the bedrock surface is below the crest elevation and a concrete thrust block will be required to transfer the loads to competent rock. This thrust block will form an abutment to the saddle dam. No large-scale,continuous oriented rock discontinuities,which might affect abutment stabi lity,have been found.Open fractures and joints have been noted to extend up to 80-100 feet back from the valley walls on the south abutment. This area will,there- fore,require extensive dental work and foundation treatment.The stability of the right abutment (north bank)is controlled by the bedding planes and foliations that strike roughly parallel to subparallel to the canyon walls and dip steeply into the canyon. The bedding planes generally are tight with undulating surfaces. Preliminary analyses indicate no stability problems in this area. Additional rock investigations and in situ testing will be required to provide data for final design. The dam foundation and the thrust blocks will be founded on sound rock,requiring removal of all the overburden and weathered rock. Extensive dental excavation will be required in some areas to form an acceptable foundation.The entire dam foundation area will be consolicjation grouted to fill all the openings and cavities in rock at shallow depth. A double row grout curtain will be provided under the entire dam including the abutments and an appropriate distance beyond the dam into the abutments. A system of drai n ho les and drai nage gal- leries will be included to control uplift pressures and to safely release seepage water. Underground Structures The rock conditions at the site are suitable for the construction of tunnels and underground caverns.For the most part,the under- ground structures have been sited to avoid adverse geologic condi- tions (i .e.,jointing and shear zones). Although the magnitude and the orientation of the in situ stresses were not performed for this study,the tectonic setting suggests that the entire site region is in a compressional stress regime. The stresses near valley walls ar~expected to have been relieved and low horizontal stresses may exist.Considering the unconfined strength of the intact rock,overstressing problems such as rock spalling and slabbing are not anticipated.The rock support re- quireme~ts will depend on the size and orientation of the openings and the presence and character of the rock discontinuities 10-7 (c) intersected.For the most part,conventional rock bolt support using 3/4-inch to l-inch-diameter bolts has been assumed to be adequate for openings less than 40 feet in span.For larger spans,in areas of poor quality rock and where rock discontin- uities are known to be adversely oriented,support requirements have been determined on a case-by-case basis.The use of shot- crete,welded wire fabric,and concrete lining will be required in poor rock quality areas.For power tunnels,provisions have also been made for concrete lining and contact/consolidation grouting. Although rock permeabilities are generally low to moderate,inter- section of rock discontinuities may lead to ground water inflow problems during construction.High-pore water pressures may develop within discontinuities after the reservoir is flooded. Therefore,provisions have been made for grouting around tunnels and caverns,and installation of suitably placed drain holes and drainage galleries has also been provided upstream from the power- house and surge chamber. The spacing between long tunnels will be 2.5 times the diameter of the largest tunnel and caverns will be kept spaced to maintain a minimum pillar thickness of 1.5 times the span of the larger cavern. Stability of Soil and Rock Slopes In most areas,the permanent excavation slopes will be within rock,except on the left bank, where a deep buried channel exists. The slopes within overburden will depend on the nature of soil, ground water table,and the height of the slope.In general, slopes within the overburden have been assumed as 2H:IV or less below the water table and 1.5H:IV or less above the water table. A bench of appropriate width will be provided at the overburden- rock contact to accommodate any local slumping and to intercept and dispose of ground/seepage water. The slopes of excavations in rock have been selected in accordance with the joi nt dips and ori entati ons and the shear strength of ~oGk.--a-long--o-i-s GO nt-i-nu-i-t-i-e-s-.--£lo pe-s--i-n--i-nt-aGt--~o Gk--or---wher-e-d-i-s-- continuities dip into the excavated face will usually stand steep- ly without any structural support.Slopes paralleling the discon- tinuity have,wherever possible,been laid back to the same angle as the dip of the rock discontinuity or adequate rock support pro- vided.Wherever possible,permanent cuts have been set at stable s lopes wi thout the need for rock bo lt s.In areas where pore pres- sures could develop behind the rock cuts,allowances have been made for drain holes to relieve the pore pressures.In general,a 4V:IH overall slope is considered stable.Excavation of tunnel portals includes pattern rock bolting and appropriate provision for concrete/shotcrete to reduce the risk of unstable slopes. Special details are required in areas where slopes will intersect or cross larger shear zones or otherwise unstable rock. I I 1 1 \ l ] i ~ ! I -J I I] 1I I )11 I j \! U IJ J (d) Saddle Dam Foundation The saddl e dam on the south bank wi 11 be constructed across the buried channel.The thickness of overburden in this area reaches up to 80 feet.The underlying bedrock is competent argill ite and graywacke.The core,filters,and outer shells for the saddle dam will be founded on sound rock.The prominent shear zone or fault which was found in the saddle dam foundation,together with vari- ous other shear and fracture zones,will require treatment by con- solidation and curtain grouting under the core. 10.4 - Seismic Considerations As discussed in Section ~.4 for Watana,the Devil Canyon project struc- tures have been classified as either critical structures or noncritical structures for earthquake engineering and design considerations.Crit- ical structures include the dam and simil ar major structures whose failure may result in sudden and uncontrolled release of large volumes of water which may endanger property and 1 ives-downstream.The non- critical structures are those structures whose failure can be assessed as an economic or financial loss to the project in terms of lost rev- enue,repair,and/or replacement cost.Critical structures will be designed to safely withstand the effect of the "Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE)for the site.No significant damage to these struc- tures will be accepted under these conditions. The design of noncritical structures for earthquake conditions will be undertaken on the basis of conventional Uniform Building Code recommen- dations. The design of the saddle dam at Devil Canyon,as for Watana dam,is based on the projected time history for the Benioff Zone SEE,magnitude 8.5.The distance from Devil Canyon in this case is 57 miles. The design of the arch dam and other critical concrete structures is based on the Terrain SEE as discussed for Watana.The appropriate re- sponse spectra for ground motions for the magnitude 6.25 Terrain earth- quake are shown in Figure 9.3. 10.5 -Selection of Reservoir Level The selected normal maximum operating level at Devil Canyon dam is Ele- vat ion 1455. Stud ies by the USBf<and CUI:::on the lJev i 1 Canyon Pr oject were essentially based on a simil~r reservoir level,which corresponds to the tailwater level selected at the Watana site.Although the nar- row configuration of the Devil Canyon site and the relatively low costs involved in increasing the dam height suggest that it might be economic to do so,it is clear that the upper economic limit of reservoir level at Devil Canyon is the Watana tailrace level. The detailed studies of reservoir level at Watana (Section 9)indicated little change in benefit-cost ratio over a 100-foot range of reservoir 10-9 10.6 -Selection of Installed Capacity -Daily peaking is more effectively performed at Watana than at Devil Canyon;and l j' l 'j I ~ t J i I./ I I I ~."~+--_."'.- ./ ) i i f I 370 410 507 Capaci ty MW at Devi 1 Canyon has been estab- Th is wi 11 prov i de some margi n possible accelerated growth in 2002 2005 2010 Demand Year The selected total installed capacity lished as 600 MW for design purposes. for standby duri ng forced outage and demand. Excessi ve fl uctuat ions in discharge from the Devi 1 Canyon dam may have an undesirable impact on mitigation measures incorporated in the final design to project the downstream fisheries. Given this mode of operation,the required installed capacity at Devil Canyon has been determined as the maximum capacity needed to utilize the available energy from the hydrological flows of record,as modified by the reservoir operation rule curves.In years where the energy from Watana and Devi 1 Canyon exceeds the system demand,the usable energy has been reduced at both stations in proportion to the average net head available,assuming that flows used to generate energy at Watana will also be used to generate energy at Devil Canyon. The total capacity required at Devil Canyon in-a--wet--year,-excluding standby and spinning reserve capacity,is summarized below.As dis- cussed in Section 9.6,the capacity shown is based on the December 1981 Battelle medium load growth forecast. The methodology used for the preliminary selection of installed capa- city at Watana and Devil Canyon is described in Section 9.6. The decision to operate Devil Canyon primarily as a based loaded plant was governed by the following main considerations: level at the upper limit.Maximization of hydroelectric energy produc- tion at the site was found to be an important objective which weighed heavily in the selection of reservoir level at Watana.Although a de- tailed determination has not been undertaken,the same is likely to be true at Devil Canyon. Although significantly lower reservoir levels at Devil Canyon would lead to lower dam costs,it is clearly evident that the location of adequate spillway facilities in the narrow gorge would become extremely difficult and lead to offsetting increases in cost.In the extreme case,a spillway discharging over the dam would raise concerns regard- ing safety from scouring at the toe of the dam,which have already led to rejection of such schemes. I j [J fl\1 (1 J I 1 I I l....1 The major factors governing the selection of the unit size at Devil Canyon are the rate of growth of system demand,the minimum station output,and the requirement of standby capacity under forced outage conditions.The above tabulation indicates that st at i on maximum load in December will increase by about 50 percent from 2002 to 2010 (from 370 MW to 507 MW).Station minimum output in July during the same period will vary from about 150 MW to 202 MW. The power facilities at Devil Canyon have been developed using 4 units at 150 MW each.This arrangement will provide for efficient station operation during low load periods as well as during peak December loads.During final design,consideration of phasing of installed capacity to match the system demand may be desirable.However,the un- certainty of load forecasts and the additional contractual costs of mobilization for equipment installation are such that for this study it has been assumed that all units will be commissioned by 2002. The Devil Canyon reservoir will usually be full in December;hence,any forced outage could result in spilling and a loss of available energy. The units have been rated to deliver 150 MW at maximum December draw- down occuring during an extremely dry year;this means that in an aver- age year,with higher reservoir levels,the full station output can be. maintained even with one unit on forced outage. 10.7 -Selection of Spillway Capacity A flood frequency of 1:10,000 years was selected for the spillway de- sign on the same basis as described for Watana.An emergency spillway with an erodible fuse plug will also be provided to safely discharge the probable maximum flood.The development plan envisages completion of the Watana project prior to construction at Devi 1 Canyon.Accord- ingly, the inflow flood peaks at Devil Canyon wi 11 be less than pre- project flood peaks because of routing through the Watana reservoir. Spillway design floods are: Flood 1:10,000 years Probable Maximum Inflow Peak (cfs) 165,000 346,000 IJ lJ \J U The avoidance of nitrogen supersaturation in the downstream flow dis- cussed in Section 9 for Watana also will apply to Devil Canyon.Thus, the discharge of water possibly supersaturated with nitorgen from Devil Canyon will be 1[mi t ed to a recurrence peri od of not 1ess than 1:50 years by the use of solid cone valves similar to Watana. 10.8 -Main Dam Alternatives The location of the Devil Canyon damsite was examined during previous studi es by the USSR and COE.These studi es focused on the narrow en- trance to the canyon and led to the recommendation of a concrete arch 10-11 dam.Notwithstanding this initial appraisal,a comparative analysis was undertaken as part of this feasibility study to evaluate the rela- tive merits of the following types of structures at the same location: - Concrete gravity dam; - Thick concrete arch; - Thin concrete arch;and -Fi 11 embankment. (a)Comparison of Embankment and Concrete Type Dams This analysis was based on the thin concrete arch and thick con- crete arch schemes developed by the COE in 1975 and 1978,together with a rockfill dam alternative developed as part of this study. The results of the analysis indicated a trend in favor of the con- crete arch dam alternatives when compared to the concrete gravity dam or rockfill dam alternatives.The assessment showed that a concrete gravity dam in the narrow gorge would tend to behave sim- ilarly to an arch dam but would not have the flexibility of such a structure.The technical feasibi 1ity of a concrete gravity dam was therefore questionable particularly under severe seismic shak- ing conditions.This type of dam also tended to be more expensive than either concrete arch and was,therefore,not considered fur- ther. Consideration of a central core rockfill dam at Devil Canyon indi- cated relatively small cost differences from a conservative arch dam cost estimate,based on a dam cross-section significantly thicker than the finally selected design.Furthermore,no infor- mation was available to indicate that impervious core material in the necessary quantities could be found within a reasonable dis- tance of the damsite.The rockfi 11 dam was accordingly dropped from further consideration.Details of this evaluation are pre- sented in Appendix B. Neither of the concrete arch dam layouts were intended as the final site arrangement, but were sufficiently representative of the most suitable arrangement associ ated with each dam type to provideanadequ at-e-basis fer cempar-i-sen,.Each type-ofd am was located just downstream from where the river enters Devil Canyon and close to the canyon's narrowest point,which is the optimum location for all types of dams.A brief description of each dam type and configuration is given below. (i)Thick Arch Dam The main concrete dam would be a single center arch struc- ture,acting partly as a gravity dam,with a vertical cyl- indrical upstream face and a sloping downstream face in- clined at 1V:0.4H.The maximum height of the dam would be 635 feet with a 'uniform crest width of 30 feet,a crest 10-12 I 1 I J J l '.! J 1 r ! ] J !J IJ U IJ U length of approximately 1,400 feet,and a maximum founda- tion width of 225 feet.The crest elevation would be 1460. The center portion of the dam would be founded on a massive mass concrete pad constructed in the excavated river bed. This central section would incorporate the main spillway with sidewalls anchored into solid bedrock and gated ori- fice spillways discharging down the steeply inclined down- stream face of the dam into a single large stilling basin set below river level and spanning the valley. The main dam would terminate in thrust blocks high on the abutments.The left abutment thrust block would incorpor- ate an emergency gated control spi llway structure which would discharge into a rock channel running well downstream and terminating at a level high above the river valley. Beyond the control structure and thrust block, a low-lying saddle on the left abutment would be closed by means of a rockfi 11 dike founded on bedrock.The powerhouse would house four 150 MW un its and wi 11 be located underground within the right abutment.The intake would be constructed integrally with the dam and connected to the powerhouse by vertical steel-lined penstocks. The main spillway would be designed to pass the 1:10,000- year routed flood with larger floods discharged downstream via the emergency spillway. (ii)Thin Arch Dam The main dam would be a two-center,double-curved arch structure of simil arheight to the thick arch dam,but with a 20-foot uniform crest and a maximum base width of 90 feet.The crest elevation would be 1460.The center sec- t ion would be founded on a concrete pad,and the extreme upper portion of the dam would terminate in concrete thrust blocks located on the abutments. The main spillway would be located on the right abutment and would consist of a conventional gated control structure discharging down a concrete-l ined chute terminating in a fl ip bucket.The bucket would discharge into an unlined plunge pool excavated in the riverbed alluvium and located suffi c ient ly downstream to prevent undermin ing of the dam and associated structures. The main spillway would be supplemented by orifice type spillways located high in the center portion of the dam which would discharge into a concrete-lined plunge pool im- mediately downstream from the dam.An emergency spillway, consisting of a fuse plug discharging into an unlined rock 10-13 channel,terminating well downstream,would be located be- yond the saddle dam on the left abutment. The concrete dam would terminate in a massive thrust block on each abutment which,on the left abutment,would adjoin a rockfill saddle dam. The main and auxiliary spillways would be designed to dis- charge the 1:10,000-year flood.Larger floods for storms up to the probable maximum flood would be discharged through the emergency left abutment spillway. (iii)Comparison of Arch Dam Types Sand and gravel for concrete aggregates are bel ieved to be available in sufficient quantities within economic distance from the damsite.The gravel and sands are formed from the granitic and metamorphic rocks of the area;at this time it is anticipated that they will be suitable for the produc- tion of aggregates after screening and washing. The bedrock geology of the site is discussed in Sections 10.2 and 10.3.At this time it appears that there are no geological or geotechnical concerns that would preclude either of the dam types from consideration. Under hydrostatic and temperature loadings,stresses within the thick arch dam will be generally lower than for the thin arch alternative.However,finite element analysis has shown that the additional mass of the dam under seismic loading will produce stresses of a greater mag~itude in the thick arch dam than in the thin arch dam.If the surface stresses approach the maximum allowable at a particular section,the remaining understressed area of concrete will be greater for the thick arch,and the factor of safety for the dam will be correspondingly higher.The thin arch is, __~__~___however,a more efficient design and better utilizes the Tilnerent properti esof the l:oncfete-:---Tt .is-de-sigrre-daroun-d acceptable predetermined factors of safety and requires a much smaller volume of concrete for the actual dam struc- ture. The thick arch arrangement did not appear to have a dis- tinct technical advantage compared to a thin arch dam and woul d be more expensive because of the 1arger volume of concrete needed ..Studies,therefore,continued on refining the feasibility of the thin arch alternative. 10.9 -Diversion Scheme Alternatives In this section the selection of general arrangement and the basis for sizing of the diversion scheme are presented. I I I I I I t I I ~ rO=14 (a) General Arrangements The steep walled valley at the site essentially dictated that di- version of the river during construction be accomplished using one or two diversion tunnels,with upstream and downstream cofferdams protecting the main construction area. The selection process for establishing the final general arrange- ment included examination of tunnel locations on both banks of the river.Rock conditions for tunneling did not favor one bank over the other.Access and ease of construction strongly favored the left bank or abutment, the obvious approach being via the alluvial fan.The total length of tunnel required for the left bank is ap- proximately 300 feet greater;however,access to the right bank could not be achieved without great difficulty. Design Flood for Diversion The recurrence interval of the design flood for diversion was es- tablished in the same manner as for Watana dam.Accordingly., at Devil Canyon a risk of exceedence of 10 percent per annum has been adopted,equivalent to a design flood with a 1:10-year return per- iod for each year of critical construction exposure.The critical construction time is estimated at 2.5 years.The main dam could be subjected to overtoppi ng duri ng construct i on without causi ng serious damage,and the existence of the Watana facility upstream will offer considerable assistance in flow regulation in case of an emergency.These considerations led to the selection of the design flood with a return frequency of 1:25 years. The equivalent inflow,together with average flow characteristics of the river significant to diversion,are presented below: As at Watana,the considerable depth of riverbed alluvium at both cofferdam sites indicates that embankment-type cofferdam struc- tures would be the only technically and economically feasible al- ternati ve at Devi 1.Canyon.For the purposes of estab 1ishi ng the overall general arrangement of the project and for subsequent di- version optimization studies,the upstream cofferdam section adop- ted will comprise an initial closure section approximately 20 feet high constructed in the wet, with a zoned embankment constructed in the dry.The downstream cofferdam will comprise a closure dam structure approximately 30 feet high placed in the wet. Control of underseepage through the alluvium material may be required and could be achi eved by means of a grouted zone.The coarse nature of the alluvium at Devil Canyon led to the selection of a grouted zone rather than a slurry wall. 9,040 cfs 37,800 cfs Average annual flow: Design flood inflow (1:25 years routed through Watana reservoir): Cofferdams(c) (b) lJ 10-15 (d) Diversion Tunnels Although stud 1es for the Wat ana project i nd i cated that concrete- lined tunnels were the most economically and technically feasible solution,this aspect was reexamined at Devil Canyon.Preliminary hydraulic stuc i es i nd lcated that the design flood routed through the dlversion scheme would result in a design discharge of approx- imately 37,800 cfs.For concrete-lined tunnels,a design veloci- t i es of approxlmately 50 ft/s would permit the use of one con- crete-llned tunnel wi th an equlvalent diameter of 30 feet.Al- ternatlvely,for unllned tunnels,a maximum design velocity of 10 ftls in good quality rock would require four unlined tunnels,each with an equlvalent diameter of 35 feet,to pass the design flow. As was the case for the Watana diversion scheme,considerations of reliability and cost were considered sufflcient to eliminate consideration of unlined tunnels for the diversion scheme. For the purposes of optimlzation studies,only a pressure tunnel was considered,since prevlous studies indicated that cofferdam closure problems associated with free-flow tunnels would more than offset thelr other advantages. (e)Optimization of Diversion Scheme Given the considerations described above relative to design flows, cofferdam configuration,and alternative types of tunnels,an eco- nomlc study was undertaken to determine the optimum combinatlon of upstream cofferdam elevation (height)and tunnel diameter. Capital costs were developed for a range of pressure tunnel diam- eters and corresponoing upstream cofferdam embankment crest eleva- t i ons with a 30-foot wide crest and exterior slopes of 2H:1V.A freeboard allowance of 5 feet was included for settlement and wave runup. Capital costs for the tunnel alternatives included allowances for excavation,concrete liner,rock bolts,and steel supports.Costs were also developed for the upstream and downstream portals,in- cludt ng excavation and support;The cost of an intake gate str-uc- ture and associated gates was determined not to vary significantly with tunnel diameter and was excluded from the analysis. The centerline tunnel length in all cases was estimated to be 2,000 feet. Rating curves for the single-pressure tunnel alternatives are pre- sented in Figure 10.2.The relationship between capital costs for the upstream cofferdam and var i ous tunnel diameters is given in Figure 10.3. The results of the optimizatlon study indlcated that a s i nq le, 30-foot-dl ameter pressure tunnel results in the overall least I 1 ) .\ .J I 1 .,l 1 J .J l 1 I J ,I ) .1 I 10.11 -Power Facilities Alternatives cost (Figure 10.3).An upstream cofferdam 60 feet high, with a crest elevation of 945,was carried forward as part of the selected general arrangement. 10.10 -Spillway Alternatives The project spillways have been designed to safely pass floods with the following return frequencies: 165,000 365,000 Di scharge (cfs) 165,000 346,000 Inflow Peak (cfs)Frequency 1:10,000 years Flood Probable Maximum Spillway Design A number of alternatives were considered singly and in combination for Devi 1 Canyon spi llway faci lities.These included gated orifices in the main dam discharging into a plunge pool, chute or tunnel spillways with either a flip bucket or stilling basin for energy dissipation,and open channel spillways.As described for Watana,the selection of the type of spi llway was infl uenced by the general arrangement of the major structures.The main spillway facilities will discharge the spillway desi gn flood through a gated spi llway contro 1 structure wi th energy dissipation by a flip bucket which directs the spillway discharge in a free fall jet into a plunge pool in the river.As noted in Section 10.7,restrictions with respect to limiting nitrogen supersaturation in selecting acceptable spillway discharge structures have been applied. The vari ous spi llway arrangements developed in accordance with these considerations are discussed in Sections 10.13 and 10.14. IJ lJ [J IJ [J ,I 1_, The selection of the optimum arrangements for the power facilities in- volved consideration of the same factors as described in Section 9.11 for Watana.The selection of the installed capacity of 600 MW at Devil Canyon is described in Section 10.6. (a)Comparison of Surface and Underground Powerhouses A surface powerhouse at Devil Canyon would be located either at the downstream toe of the dam or along the side of -the canyon wall.As determined for Watana,costs favored an underground ar- rangement. In addition to cost,the underground powerhouse layout has been selected based on the following: -Insufficient space is available in the steep-sided canyon for a surface powerhouse at the base of the dam; -The provision of an extensive intake at the crest of the arch dam would be detrimental to stress conditions in the arch dam 10-17 particularly under earthquake loading,and would require signif- icant changes in the arch dam geometry;and -The outlet facilities located in the arch dam are designed to discharge directly into the river valley;these would cause sig- nificant winter icing and spray problems to any surface struc- ture below the dam. (b)Comparison of Alternative Locations The underground powerhouse and rel ated facil ities have been lo- cated on the right bank for the following reasons: -Generally superior rock quality at depth; -The left bank area behind the main dam thrust block is unsuit- able for the construction of the power intake;and -The river turns north downstream from the dam,and hence, the right bank power development is more suitable for extending the tailrace tunnel to develop extra head. (c)Selection of Units The turbine type selected for the Devil Canyon development is governed by the design head and specific speed and by economic considerations.Francis turbines have been adopted for reasons similar to those discussed for Watana in Section 9.11. The selection of the number and rating of individual units is dis- cussed in detail in Section 10.6.The four units will be rated to del iver 150 MW each at full gate opening and minimum reservoir level in December (the peak demand month). (d) Transformers Tr an sf ormer se1ect i on iss im il ar to Wat an a and disc ussed in Sec- (e)Power Intake and Water Passages For flexibility of operation,individual penstocks are provided to each of the four un its.Detailed cost stud ies showed that there is no significant cost advantage in using two larger diameter pen- stocks with bifurcation at the powerhouse compared to four separ- ate penstocks. A single tailrace tunnel with a length of 6,80U feet to develop 30 feet of additional head downstream from the dam has been incorpor- ated in the design.Detailed design may indicate that two smaller tailrace tunnels for improved reliability may be superior to one 10::18 ) 1 1 » J 1 ,~J ) 1 ) 1 1 ,1 I I J .J ) \-) ) large tunnel since the extra cost involved is relatively small. The surge chamber design would be essentially the same with one or two tunnels. The overall dimensions of the intake structure are governed by the selected diameter and number of the penstocks ahd the minimum pen- stock spacing.Detailed studies comparing construction cost to the value of energy lost or gained were carried out to determine the optimum diameter of the penstocks and the tailrace tunnel. (f)Environmental Constraints In addition to potential nitrogen-saturation problems caused by spillway operation,the major impacts of the Devil Canyon power facilities development are: -Changes in the temperature regime of the river;and -Fluctuations in downstream river flows and levels. Temperature modeling has indicated that a multiple level varying the intake design at Devil Canyon would.not significantly affect downstream water temperatures,since these are effectively con- trolled by the water released from Watana.Consequently, the in- take design at Devil Canyon incorporates a single level draw-off about 75 feet below maximum reservoir operating level (El 1455). The Devil Canyon station will normally be operated as a base- loaded plant throughout the year,to satisfy the requirement of no siginificant daily variation in power flow. 10.12 -General Arrangement Selection The approach to selection of a general arrangement for Devil Canyon was a similar but simplified version of that used for Watana described in Section 9. (a)Selection Methodology Preliminary alternative arrangements of the Devil Canyon project were developed and selected using two rather than three review stages.Topographic conditions at this site limited the develop- ment of reasonably feasible layouts,and initially,four schemes were developed and evaluated.During the final review, the selected 1ayout was refined based on technical,.operational and environmental considerations identified during the preliminary review. (b)Design Data and Criteria The design data and design criteria on which the alternative lay- outs were based is presented in Table 10.1.Subsequent to selec- t ion of the preferred Devi 1 Canyon scheme,the information was 10-19 refined and updated as part of the on-going study program.The description of the Devil Canyon project presented in Section 13 reflects the most recent design data for the project. 10.13 -Preliminary Review Consideration of the options available for types and locations of vari- ous structures led to the development of four primary layouts for exam- ination at Devil Canyon in the prel iminary review phase.Previous studies had led to the selection of a thin concrete arch structure for the main dam,and indicated that the most acceptable technical and eco- nomic location was at the upstream entrance to the canyon.The dam axis has been fixed in this location for all alternatives. (a)Description of Alternative Schemes The schemes evaluated during the preliminary review are described below. In each of the alternatives evaluated,the dam is founded on the sound bedrock underlying the riverbed.The structure is 635 feet high,has a crest width of 20 feet,and a maximum base width of 90 feet.Mass concrete thrust blocks are founded high on the abutments,the left block extending approximately 100 feet above the existing bedrock surface and supporting the upper arches of the dam.The thrust block on the right abutment makes the cross-river profile of the dam more symmetrical and contributes to a more uniform stress distribution. (i)Scheme DCl (See Plate 10.1) In this scheme,diversion facilities comprise upstream and downstream earthfi 11 and rockfi 11 cofferdams and two 24-foot-diameter tunnels beneath the left abutment. A rockfill saddle dam occupies the lower lying area beyond the left abutment running from the thrust block to the higher ground beyond.The impervious fill cut-off for the saddle dam is founded on bedrock approximately 80 feet beneath the existing ground sl.lrfate~The maXimUm height of this dam above the foundation is approximately 200 feet. The routed 1:10,000-year design flood of 135,000 cfs is passed by two spillways.The main spillway is located on the right abutment.It has a design discharge of 90,000 cfs,and flows are controlled by a three-gated ogee control structure.This discharges down a concrete-lined chute and over flip bucket which ejects the water in a diverging jet into a pre-excavated plunge pool in the riverbed.The flip bucket is set at Elevation 925,approximately 35 feet above the river level.An auxil iary spillway,discharging a to- tal of 35,000 cf s,is located in the center of the dam,100 feet below the dam crest and is controlled by three wheel- mounted gates.The orifices are designed to direct the 10':'20 'J J ] 1 1 ] 1 .1 ] .1 'J ] ) .J J J J ] ] (J flow into a concrete-lined plunge pool just downstream from the dam. An emergency spillway is located in the sound rock south of the saddle dam.This is designed to pass discharges in excess of the 1:10,000-year flood up to a probable maximum flood of 270,000 cfs,if such an event should ever occur. The spillway is an unlined rock channel which discharges into a valley downstream from the dam leading into the Sus itna Ri ver. The upstream end of the channel is closed by an earthfill fuse plug.The plug is designed to be eroded if overtopped by the reservoir.Thus, as the crest is lower than either the main or saddle dams,the plug would be washed out prior to overtopping of either of these structures. The underground power facil ities are located on the right bank of the river,within the bedrock forming the dam abut- ment.The rock within this abutment is of better qual ity with fewer shear zones and a lesser degree of jointing than the rock on the left side of the canyon (see Section 10.3), and hence more suitable for underground excavation. The power intake is located just upstream from the bend in the valley before it turns sharply to the right into Devil Canyon.The intake structure is set deep into the rock at the downstream end of the approach channel.Separate pen- stocks for each unit lead to the powerhouse. The powerhouse contains four 150 MW turbine/generator units.The turbines are Francis type units coupled to overhead umbrella type generators.The units are serviced by an overhead crane running the length of the powerhouse and into the end service bay.Offices,the control room, switchgear room,maintenance room,etc.,are located beyond the service bay.The transformers are housed in a separ- ate,upstream gallery located above the lower horizontal section of the penstocks.Two vertical cable shafts con- nect the gallery to the surface.The draft tube gates are housed above the draft tubes in separate annexes off the main powerhall.The draft tubes converge in two bifurca- tions at the tailrace tunnels which discharge,under free- flow conditions,to the river.Access to the powerhouse is by means of an unlined tunnel leading from an access portal on the right side of the canyon. The switchyard is located on the 1eft bank of the river just downstream from the saddle dam,and the power cables from the transformers are carried to it across the top of the dam. 10-21 (ii)Scheme DC2 (See Plate 10.2) The 1ayout is generally simil ar to Scheme Del except that the chute spillway is located on the left side of the can- yon.The concrete-lined chute terminates in a flip bucket high on the left side of the canyon which drops the dis- charges into the river below.The design flow is 90,000 cfs,and discharges are controlled by a 3-gated,ogee- crested-control structure,similar to that for Scheme DC1, which abuts the left side thrust block. The saddle dam axis is straight,following the shortest route between the control structure at one end and the rising ground beyond the low-lying area at the other. (iii)Scheme DC3 (See Plate 10.3) The layout is similar to Scheme DC1 except that the right side main spillway takes the form of a single tunnel rather than an open chute.A 2-gated,ogee-contro 1 structure is located at the head of the tunnel and discharges into an inclined shaft 45 feet diameter at its upper end. The structure will discharge up to a maximum of 90,00U cfs. The concrete-l ined tunnel narrows to 35 feet diameter and discharges into a flip bucket which directs the flows in a jet into the river below as in Scheme DC1. An auxiliary spillway is located in the center of the dam and an emergency spi 11 way is excav ated on the 1eft abut- ment. The layout of dams and power facilities are the same as for Scheme DCl. (iv)Scheme DC4 (See Plate 10.4) e am,power facTrn ies,-ana sacral ecfam for thE sc are the same as those for Scheme DC1.The major difference is the substitution of a stilling-basin type spillway on the right bank for the chute and flip bucket.A 3-gated, ogee-control structure is located at the end of the dam thrust block and controls the discharges,up to a maximum of 90,000 cfs. The concrete-lined chute is built into the face of the can- yon and discharges into a 500-feet-long by 115-feet-wide by 100-feet-high concrete sti 11 ing basin formed below river level and deep within the right side of the canyon.Cen- tral orifices in the dam and the left bank rock channel and fuse plug form the auxiliary and emergency spillways,re- spectively,as in the other alternative schemes. 10-22 ) J 1 J j .J ,) J ~l J 1 ) J [J I ) (] [I) [] [J U U U ) The downstream cofferdam is located beyond the stilling basin,and the diversion tunnel outlets are located farther downstream to enable construction of the stilling basin. (b)Comparison of Alternatives The arch dam,saddle dam,power facilities,and diversion vary only in a minor degree among the four alternatives.Thus,the comparison of the schemes rests solely on a comparison of the spillway facilities. As can be seen from a comparison of the costs in Table 10.2,the flip bucket spillways are substantially less costly to construct than the stilling-basin type of Scheme OC4.The left side spill- way of Scheme UC2 runs at a sharp angle to the river and ejects the discharge jet from high on the canyon face toward the opposite side of the canyon.Over a longer period of operation,scour of the heavily jointed rock could cause undermining of the canyon sides and their subsequent instability.The possibility of depo- sition of material in the downstream riverbed with a corresponding elevation of the tailrace.Construction of a spillway on the steep left side of the river could be more difficult than on the right side because of the presence of deep fissures and large un- stable blocks of rock which are present on the left side close to the top of the canyon. The two-right side flip bucket spillways schemes, based on either an open chute or a tunnel,take advantage of a downstream bend in the river to discharge parallel to the course of the river.This will reduce the effects of erosion but could still present a prob- lem if the estimated maximum possible scour hole would occur. The tunnel type spillway could prove difficult to construct be- cause of the large diameter inclined shaft and tunnel paralleling the bedding planes.The high velocities encountered in the tunnel spillway could cause problems with the possibility of spiraling flows and severe cavitation both occuring. The stilling basin type spillway of Scheme OC4 reduces downstream erosion problems within the canyon.However,cavitation could be a pr ob lem under the high-flow velocities experienced at the base of the chute.This would be somewhat alleviated by aeration of the flows. There is,however,little precedent for stilling basin operation at heads of over 500 feet;and even where floods of much less than the design capacity have been discharged,severe damage has occurred. 10-23 (c)Selection of Final Scheme The chute and fl ip bucket spillway of Scheme DC2 could generate downstream erosion problems which could require considerable main- tenance costs and cause reduced efficiency in operation of the project at a future date.Hydraulic design problems exist with Scheme DC3 which may also have severe cavitation problems.Also, there is no cost advantage in Scheme DC3 over the open chute Scheme DCl.In Scheme DC4,the operating characteristics of a high head stilling basin are little known,and there are few ex- amples of successful operation.Scheme lJC4 also costs consider- ably more than any other scheme (Table 10.2). All spillways operating at the required heads and discharges will eventually cause some erosion.For all schemes,the use of solid cone valve outlet facilities in the lower portion of the dam to handle floods up to 1:50-year frequency is considered a more rea- sonable approach to reduce erosion and el iminate nitrogen super- saturation problems than the gated high level orifice outlets in the dam.Since the cost of the flip bucket type spillway in the scheme is considerably less than that of the stilling basin in Scheme DC4,and since the latter offers no relative operational advantage,Scheme Del has been selected for further study as the selected scheme. 10.14 -Final Review The layout selected in Section 10.13 was further developed in accor- dance with updated engineering studies and criteria.The major change compared to Scheme DC1 is the elimination of the high level gated ori- fices and introduction of low level solid cone valves,but other modi- fications that were introduced are described below. The revised layout is shown on Plate 10.5.A description of the struc- tures is as follows. (a)Main Dam The max irflUtfl operating 1evel of the reservoir was rai sed to Eleva- tion 1455 in accordance with updated information relative to the Watana tailwater level.This requires raising the dam crest to El evat ion 1463 with the concrete parapet wall crest at El evat ion 1466.The saddle dam was raised to Elevation 1472. (b)Spillways and Outlet Facilities To eliminate the potential for nitrogen supersaturation problems, the outlet fac il it ies were des igned to restrict supersaturated flow to an average recurrence interval of greater than 50 years. This led to the replacement of high level gated orifice spillway by outlet facilities incorporating 7 fixed-cone valves,3 with a diameter of 90 inches and 4 with a diameter of 102 inches,capable of passing a design flow of 38,500 cfs. 10-24 ) ·J -j ) J ] J · J 1 .J 1 J 1 ) .._.--._~_._-- ·) J 1 1 l ) r \ I () U I(I (\ J (J The chute spi 11 way and fl ip bucket are located on the ri ght bank, as in Scheme DCI;however,the chute length was decreased and the elevation of the flip bucket raised compared to Scheme DCl. More recent site surveys indicated that the gr~und surface in the vicinity of the saddle dam was lower than originally estimated. The emergency spillway channel was relocated slightly to the south to accommodate the larger dam. (c)Diversion The previous twin diversion tunnels were replaced by a single- tunnel scheme.This was determined to provide all necessary secur ity and wi 11 cost approximately one-half as much as the two-tunnel alternative (see Section 10.9). (d)Power Facilities The drawdown range of the reservoir was reduced, allowing a reduc- tion in height of the power intake.In order to locate the intake within solid rock,it has been moved into the side of the valley, requiring a slight rotation of the water passages,powerhouse,and caverns comprising the power facilities. 10-25 rlLJ I I \J !I.. LIST OF REFERENCES (1) Acres American Incorporated,Report on 1980-81 Geotechnical Inves- tigations,Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority,February 1982. (2)Woodward-Clyde Consultants,Interim Report of Seismic Studies for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Prepared for Acres American Incorporated,Uecember 1980. (3)Woodward-Clyde Consultants,Final Report of Seismic Studies for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Prepared for Acres American Incorporated,February 1982. TABLE 10.1:DESIGN DATA AND DESIGN CRITERIA FOR REVIEW OF ALTERNATIVE LAYOUTS River Flows (1 \) I 1.. (J I I lJ u IJ Average flow (over 30 years of record): Probable maximum flood: Max.flood with return period of 1:10,000 years: Maximum flood with return period of 1:500 years: Maximum flood with return period of 1:50 years: Reservoir Normal maximum operating level: Reservoir minimum operating level: Area of reservoir at maximum operating level: Reservoir live storage: Reservoir full storage: Dam Type: Crest elevat ion: Crest length: Maximum height above foundation: Crest width: Diversion Cofferdam types: Upstream cofferdam crest elevation: Downstream cofferdam crest elevation: Maximum pool level during construction: Tunnels: Outlet structures: Final closure: Releases during impounding: Spillway Design floods: Service spillway -capacity: -control structure: -energy dissipat ion: Secondary spillway -capacity: -control structure: -energy dissipation: Emergency spillway -capacity: -type: 8,960 cfs 270,000 cfs 135,000 cfs (after routing through Watana 42,000 cfs (after routing through Watana 1455 feet 1430 feet 21,000 acres 180,000 acre feet 1,100,000 acre feet Concrete arch 1455 feet 635 feet 20 feet Rock fill 960 feet 900 feet 955 feet Concret e lined Low-level structure with slide closure gate Mass concrete plugs in line with dam grout curtain 2,000 cfs min.via fixed-cone valves Passes PMF,preserving integrity of dam with no loss of life Passes routed 1:1o,000-year flood with no damage to structures 45,000 cfs Fixed-cone valves Five 108-inch diameter fixed-cone valves 90,000 cfs Gated,ogee crests St illing basin pmf minus routed 1:1o,000-year flood Fuse plug TABLE 10.1:(Cont t d) Power Intake Type: Transformer area: Access Type of turbines: Number and rating: Rated net head: Maximum gross head: Type of generator: Rated output: Power factor: Underground Separate gallery Rock Tunnel Francis 4 x 140 MW 550 feet 565 feet epprox , Vert ical synchronous 155 MVA 0.9 ,) l 1 _1 J TABLE 10.2:SUMMARY OF COMPARATIVE COST ESTIMATES PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF ALTERNAT~VE ARRANGEMENTS (January 1982 $X 10 ) Item DC1 DC2 DC3 DC4 Land Acquisition 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 Reservoir 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 Main Dam 468.7 468.7 468.7 468. 7 Emergency Spillway 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 Power Facilities 211.7 211.7 211.7 211.7 Switchyard 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 Miscellaneous Structures 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 Access Roads &Site Facilities 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 Common Items -Subtotal '7lU:'7 '7lU:'7 '7lU:'7 '7lU:'7 1 Diversion 32.1 32.1 32.1 34.9 I Service Spillway 46.8 53.3 50.1 85.2 Saddle Dam 19.9 18.6 18.6 19.9 Non-Common/Items Subtotal 9'B"':'1r 11JZi':'lJ 1'tl'l:r.1r 17ITf.1l" Total 882.0 887.2 884.0 923.2 Camp &Support Costs (169~)141.1 141.9 141.4 147.7 Subtotal TO'2"3:T TlJ'2'9:T '"flJ2'5:7i "'f'U'7'lT:.""9 Contingency (20%)204.6 205.8 205.1 214.2 Subtotal T'l'lT:T 1234.9 T2'3'lJ:":5"TZ'lB":T En(ineering &Administration 12.590 153.5 154.3 153.8 160.6 Total 1'3'lrr."2"'1"3'S'9':"2"T3'S"Zi:":'r "f'44'5:7 I lJ [I,) 200 JOINT STATION GEOLOGIC SECTION LOCATION GEOLOGIC FEATURE MAFIC DIKE FELSIC DIKE BEDDING/FOLIATION, INCLINED, VERTICAL OVERBURDEN,UNDIFFERENTIATED ARGILLITE AND GRAYWACKE OUTCROP FELSIC DIKE, WIDTH SHOWN WHERE GRESUER THAN 10 FEET MAFIC DIKE, WIDTH SHOWN WHERE GREATER THAN 10 FEET SHEAR,WIDTH SHOWN WHERE GREATER THAN 10 FEET, VERTICAL UNLESS DIP SHOWN SHEAR, WIDTH LESS THAN 10 FEET, INCLINED, VERTICAL, EXTENT WHERE KNOWN FRACTURE ZONE, WIDTH SHOWN WHERE GREATER THAN 10 FEET,VERTICAL UNLESS DIP SHOWN JOINTS, INCLINED,OPEN INCLINED,VERTICAL (SETS I AND II ONLYI lIDCJ-1 @) MI FI I.CONTOUR INTERVAL 50 FEET. 2.EXTENT OF SHEARS, FRACTURE ZONES AND ALTERATION ZONES ARE INFERRED BASED ON GEOLOGIC MAPPING AND SURFACEEXPLORATIONS, AND ARE SUBJECT TO VERIFICATION THROUGH FUTURE DETAILED INVESTIGATIONS. 3.DETAILS OF GEOLOGIC FEATURES PRESENTED IN 19BO-BI GEOTECHNICAL REPORT. ----LIMIT OF OUTCROP OTHER: DC-I t.t STRUCTURE: CONTACTS: LEGEND LITHOLOGY: FIGURE 10.1 0~1!I!iI""'~~_iiiii4;i;l90 FEETSCALEi:, 15oo~ 1550~ 1650-:-------- 1700~ ooo.; <Dw I ---- DEVIL CANYON GEOLOGIC MAP ooo <D <Dw 8 C!. ~w I REFERENCE' BASE MAP FROM R ElM, 19BI -I"'200' DEVIL CANYON TOPOGRAPHY. COORDINATES IN FEET, ALASKA STATE PLANE (ZONE 4) N 3,224,000 - N 3,221,000 - N 3,223,000 - N3,222,oo0 - 1050 4035 I -PRESSURE TUNNEL (36,000 CFS 25 30 TUNNEL DIAMETER (FT) 20 aao 1000 900 ~ j::: ~ LIJ ..J LIJ LIJ (.) ~a::::::> U) a::: LIJ 950 I------+------+----~+_---__t----....., i 0 TYP.TUNNEL SECTION [J u II [1 I I (J DEVIL CANYON DIVERSION HEADWATER ELEVATION /TUNNEL DIAMETER FIGURE 10.2 16 I j I I I [1 14 l J ~<Do- )(...12 [) ~ I- CJ) 0 (.) ijII (1 \) [J LJ 20 18 10 8 6 , \ .d 0 <.7TYPICAL~TUNNEL SECTION 4 o 20 25 30 TUNNEL DIAMETER (FT.) 35 40 DEVIL CANYON DIVERSION TOTAL COST I TUNNEL DIAMETER FIGURE 10.3 • --~-- GENERAL ARRANGEMENT ELI370 -470'SWITCHYARD DEVIL CANYON SCHEME DCI ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT NOTE POWERHOUSE LOCATION SUBJECT TO OPTIMIZATION STUDIES OF QOWNSTREM LOCATIONs. 30' SECTION A-A (( ~; _.._.t!!c>~ I ACRES AMERICANrneORPORATEn ;;J~z'"z:>~~u>- ~ "uo~ \ "\ \ NOTE THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS n."y ~_ _.._----_._~..------------ 1400 1500 \j I \~ o 100 2.00 FEET SCALE ! "'A SWITCHYARD IEc.'370 I ; ,,, ) e $ ( '--~~ '----...~~_...... _EL 1457 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT / / LASKA POWER AUTHORITY, l?~ DEVIL CANYON SCHEME DC2 EMERGENCY SPILLWAY NOTE POWERHOUSE LOCATION SUBJECT TO OPTIMIZATION STUDIES OF DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS. I' / / -. ,.<F .: ~ ..!:!9E \0 ~ , \ ~,~ ~\ "\,,\ \{j'.~ ii/ ( ) ~ / ",0 ~ L'" ( DIVERSION INTAKE /'k~ft O ~ ."LINE~~~RETf~,\\J as ~~I TIT"~\\-.\\;~g \i / ""'-!~;:I 0''-"J' ,"/I""r /\.V I 1"1 /'L-II ,./\,",;~'\ /"),,I~''" ,:I,I'~~/1./\,I ",',j""I,'.,VI \~\..// I 'i';,'I///~-- ,-,13\,-,, \,, r -' I \ I SWITCHYARD \I 0 \tEL "70 I ~0 -,,!i1 I,0,,'%. / , \\-", I \, \-, -, \ \ \ ",a '00 200 FEET SCALE GENERAL ARRANGEMENT ~~ COFFERDAM~,' "-----I-,//'I : : : : ,'\il\L:,:,:':'J,:\_U~UJJ.!~/I{?;-~~~~r;:' I Iflll/l'1I1 I I I I II I I 'If !I :L---__..J (~J I / ------upsmEAM \ ~- -........00 " 900 ._._~../" ~ ___----/.1'00 0 ( o ~ I -_......---.. '-""\ \\ "-.- \ ~~~' I I ,/ITRANSFORMER.........,/-GALLERY !~,',...,....,-:l~,'\~"',p.\'~,~~~,-,r ....Z'- ,"'~, "....'....'>-)l.",~-,'!!-..("i.."l'"\'''~'{-,"-,/:~::)(/,>r'.;.:~?'1',... ........-,....'<.JI,.,...!t.':<:,,?\"...f'''''.,/,...:J.,;/\.~..(,~\'~ I ~,,~,-,/'I->...::...,,~y;\"'\\~, '/?'"')~..(f...~~~;;-, ,...~\ 11,'//I...*~;~..:~'<",~...\.~<...~-/v...~:!:..~\.x ... I''''\<, i \','"".....,...\\.//~-)-,-;..>.... /1/1 P9WERHOUSE Cf ':::--~ ..'\\//, / \ \.LTAILRACE /\\0'TUNNELS\! II 0\\=I', II,) \ \\\i::J.II 0II0AC~SS TUNEL--.......~.\.e\"~~\\:\(~\;\\. -IIs\\~,\ ('\\ II II I I' I'II II II II ~ i \ '----- \ \ ~ -. THiS DRAWING ILlUSTKA 11:.0 A PREuMINARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERttATlVE SITE DEVELOPMENTS ONLY ~ ACRESAMERJCAHi'NCORPmIJEO PLATE: IO~2 '---L.-.-...=---_i__. ~~~L~~RUCTURE ~~/.OO_ ALWVIUM IN RiVER BED TO BE REMOV~ ~.0...l/~'~'~y /'~,-~.;"li{<~,,1 ~_~~ :HO\'SE A ..........7~'V·~-~\..~~.---..~h.·~T·~?O.::-----..---.::so:;;::---~~~~..,.OO~__ 'e00 9S01000 --I~.O ~~~;~/~~ ~~Q(Jjf<0~oi$'~ W. ,,'$'''.;1''''' • •.,f>,,0 ~... ,.,{' .... ...._-,-'"\. SECTION E-E SCALE: B GENERAL ARRANGEMENT SCALE:A "-, DEVIL CANYON SCHEME DC3 ::SU:;)II~A nlDROB...ECTRIC PROJECT ALASKA POWER AUTHOR~TY _..-....._...~ SECTION F-F SCALE: B SECTION G-G SCALE: B r-,.... ........................ ''-, "'......,....... ", "-,, "",<, " -, 20 100 seAL.£:e O~!!!!!5iiiiiiiiii SCAlE: A O~~§iiiiiiiii !!2ll ...... F G ",'".." $' .,,+$~"'f~ ...""'c,,,,+" ;Q~' .... z -..."" ORIGINAL GROUND SURFACE ~ E -~G<lit 31'CIA..",__<,<lit ... E <; SECTION A-A SCALE:A FIXED WHEEL GATES 40·Wx.SI'H ARCH DAM THRUST BLOCK--c,~~_._.~-\~\. .'~<,~~."'."',......,,1 --..... \\. , \ \4d 1500 1400 1300 :; z 0 ~12pO ~ '"1100 1000 900 BOO """....................... --'<,", EL 397.5 EL1455 '-, SECTION B"B SCALE:·S SECTION C-C SCAl£J B SECTION D-D SCALE: B THIS DRAWING ILLUSTRATES A PRELIMINARY CONCEPTUA.L PROJECT LA.YOUT PREPARED FOR COMPARISON OF ALTERKATIVE SJTE DEVELOPtIEJfTS ont.:r ~~-----------ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED PLATE 10.3 L_L....-...-'--L__._~ PLATE 10.4 rsoo 1700 DEVIL CANYON SCHEME DC4 SECTION D-D 100 200 FEET 5iiiiiiiiiiiiii ALASKA POWER,AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 1200 o SCALE -~-ACRES AMERICAN IHCORPORAT£D 1100 ANCHORS 900 1000BOO NATURAL GROUND SURFACE "{LEFT SIDE} 700 SECTION C-C 600 SECTION F-F lmS DRA'R'1HG lLUJSlRATES A PRELI....ART CONCEPTUAL PROJECT LAYOOT PREJWIED FOR COMmmsOH OF ~TER"lnlVE SITE DEVElOPlEHTS ONlY ~ 500400300100200 SECTION a-a 900 ,-...... SECTION E-E 100 0 1 /Ii Ff ~I ~7 1400 I 7 ~1200'"";;>....I Z zQ.!1100 GROUT CURTAIN 700 L'---------_~-~--~-~--~--~-~--_--~-.,.,_--"._--t-r-r--_:r:_,,__,=-...,.,__-'-...,..--~- eco STATIONING IN FEET .SECTION A-A (THRU SPILLWAY) ,500 " .,',----= I ~.~~-soo ~U -~'<;~.=-LU'l,~'S;.I~1 ~i~;~'::"~ 1400 1300 I J.'/\'......-:.......~~~.'\./ 1100\'\/c /t A 1000 I ).I EL92'O"-,/"\I It \/1\I \\....I goot ~~1 .~\'ELa5;~~~~ :eoo I l\ ti'2oo1 v =>~~.'%-"..........l It ;; zllOO 1-----------------------"-""2-~_:::_--""',,------------------------o ~~IOOO I ..un..n<;.r:;,."'''11_\;1 ~.",II'I.-~......."........."'.......~ul\u•.1AnT ·UAM \nr:..ln'7 \ \\ ~L / \\ii'\II I I I,, , I :II'I I, I I I I I I, , I:,,, I I, I , I,, , I,, , I , I , I III! ;I \i ;, )g I ~I g I \I\\\II\~~II '1>.'I I, <>. o ~ GENERAL ARRANGEMENT ~ ~"? ELI4~!S i _ ;-'--, PLATE 10.5 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ~lm~~ "1="z,,0 :i1" . DEVIL CANyON SELECTED SCHEME ~ NOTE THIS DRAw:!HG rLLUSTRATES A PREUMlnARY CONCEPTUAL PROJECT·LAYOUT fl'PElIAR'ED FOR COIIIPllftlSOH OF ALTERNATIVE SITE DEVELOPIlEHT ONLY. o 100 200 FEET SCALE I I /f 1//)(//14'/ )~I #0 \!!II I §l );(!" Ir:(\\~~ \~ / I \ !)I - \( ,\ I I.. ..I II I ~ SWITCHYARD II \1\II ;U <>,!EL.I370 I It!50 1200 1250t300~13!50~ 1'100 1450 lSI» ~,)L,"=---------'--__---//- %.~~~~I~--=::----:~ r-jI, (] [J fl \/ I) (1,.I I 1lJ 11L_....J [j (j IJ 11 -SELECTION OF ACCESS PLAN This section describes the process of formulation and selection of an access plan for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project.The methodology for comparison of alternative plans is outlined,and an evaluation of each basic plan is presented,considering schedule;costs,and biological and social impacts.The selected plan is described in detail,and recommendations for measures to reduce impacts are presented. Engineering studies conducted on the alternative routes consisted of development of design criteria,layout of the alternative routes,pre- liminary field investigations,estimated cost of constructing the alternative routes and costs in transporting supplies and materials to the damsites.Environmental studies included identification,field investigations,and evaluation of biological impacts for each of the alternative routes.Social,cultural,socioeconomic, and a public par~ ticipation program were included among the studies completed as part of the Access Plan evaluation.Public concerns and preferences,particu- larly those of the area that would be impacted the most directly,were solicited and fully considered in the evaluation. The evaluation of the alternative plans included evaluation criteria, comparisons of the alternative plans,identification of conflicts among the alternative plans relative to the evaluation criteria,resolution of the conflicts in the evaluation criteria,and the tradeoffs made in the evaluation process. 11.1 -Background (a)Existing Access Facilities The proposed Devil Canyon and Watana sites are located approxi- mate ly 115 miles northeast of Anchorage and 140 mil es south of Fairbanks.The Alaska Railroad,which links Anchorage and Fair- banks, passes within 12 miles of the Devil Canyon site at Gold Creek.The George Parks Highway (Route 3)parallels the Alaska Railroad for much of its route,although between the communities of Sunshine and Hurricane,the highway is routed to the west of the railroad,so that Gold Creek is situated approximately 16 miles south of the intersection of the railroad and highway.A portion of the highway between Lane and Hurricane passes through Denali State Park.At Cantwell,51 miles north of Gold Creek,the Denali Highway (Route 8) leads easterly approximately 116 miles to Paxson,intersecting the Richardson Highway at this point. To the south,the Glenn Highway (Route 1)provides the main access to Gl enna11 en and intersects the Ri chardson Hi ghway wh ich 1eads south to Valdez. 11-1 (b)Modifications to Plan of Study The original POS proposed that a single route would be selected by May 1981 to be followed by detailed environmental investigations of thi s route. Early in the study,three main access corridors were developed. Consideration of these plans on the basis of available informa- tion,comments,and concerns from various state agencies and a recommendation from the Susitna Steering Committee,led to a deci- sion to assess all three alternative routes in more detail throughout 1981 and recommend a selected route later in the year. Accordingly,this assessment included environmental studies, engineering studies,aerial photography,and geologic mapping of all three alternatives rather than the single route initially envisaged. 11.2 -Objectives The finally selected access plan must allow for the efficient and time- ly undertaking of construction and maintenance activities in order that the Susitna HYdroelectric Project can be completed and electric power be reliably and continuously provided to the Railbelt area of Alaska. In meeting this basic objective,several specific objectives were developed as a basis for evaluation of the alternative access routes. These objectives are: -To allow the construction of the Susitna project to proceed on a schedule that would supply the necessary power to the Railbelt Area of Alaska where needed in 1993; -To minimize total cost including construct ion costs of the access facilities,logistics costs for supporting the construction of the Susitna development as well as the logistics costs of subsequent operation of the completed project; -To allow for ease of operation and maintenance to insure reliability ----------~-+n~1;he~powers-upp-ly-;----~------,----~-~-~~-~------------------------------- -To minimize adverse biological impacts; -To accommodate the preferences of local communities;--and -To accommodate the preferences of native landowners. 11-2 ) J t l I ! I 1 I I l I I J t I I --I 11.3 -Approach The approach utilized to arrive at an access plan recommendation was an adaptation of the generic plan formulation and selection methodology described elsewhere in the report.The methodology as specifically applied to selection of the access plan is presented graphically in Figure 11.1. i) ']I,) [] [] To aid in understanding the selection process and the various studies conducted,the following definitions are provided: (a)Corridor A strip of land generally 2 miles or greater in width leading be- tween two points or areas. (b) Route A strip of land generally 1/2 mile or less in width,leading be- tween two points. (c)Segment Portions of a route which when combined constitute one alternative route between two points. (d)Alternative Route One of several routes which will be evaluated between two points. (e) Plan The first step in the selection process involved identification of the three general corridors described below (see Plate 11.1): An access plan includes a single or a combination of existing and new alternative routes.The plan will also define the logistics involved in the transportation of supplies and materials. 11.4 -Corridor Selection and Evaluation DescriptionCorridor I II_J 1 2 3 From the Parks Hi ghway to the Watana site . via the north side of the Susitna River. From the Parks Highway to the Watana site via the south side of the Susitna River. From the Denal i Hi ghway to the Watana site. 11-3 These corridors were selected based upon the use of existing transpor- tation facilities within reasonable proximity to the Wataha and Devil Canyon sites. A general environmental analysis was undertaken for each corridor,and discussions,evaluations,and results are presented elsewhere (2).The maj or environmental constrai nts ident ifi ed withi n each corri dor are potential impacts on the following: (a)Corridor 1 Fishery resources in the Susitna and Indian Rivers; -Cliff-nesting raptors near Portage Creek and Devil Canyon; -Furbearer habitat near Portage Creek and High Lake; -Moose habitat on the Susitna River;and - Caribou habitat between Devil Creek and Deadman Creek. (b)Corridor 2 -Fishery resources in the Susitna and Indian Rivers; -Cliff-nesting raptors near south side of the Susitna River; -Waterfowl habitat in the Stephan Lake-Fog.Lake areas;and -Furbearer habitat in the Stephan Lake-Fog Lake areas. (c)Corridor 3 - Caribou calving area near Butte Lake; -Furbearer habitat;and -Some waterfowl habitat. In addition,increased access will cause various impacts which are com- mon to all corridors.Archaeological resources could pose a con- straint;at this time,the locations of such resources that may exist are unknown. Finally,socioeconomic impacts will vary both in magnitude and areas of concentration,depending upon which access route or combination of access routes is selected,and whether a road or railroad i-s-used. ·---~---~---W-i-th~the~soc-i-oec onom:i-cassessment--o-f-access-schemes-,~thel".e_ts __mor·_e_con~_~__~.. cern with the ori gin and type of access because these wi 11 affect the communities more than the actual route. With a road from the Parks Highway to the damsites (Corridors 1 and 2), effects generally would be concentrated on the western side of the pro- ject area along the Parks Highway.An easily accessible road corridor would provide for transportation of construction materials,equipment, and labor as well as post-construction uses of the upper Susitna basin (such as recreation).The impact of a rai lroad from the same side would likewise be concentrated on the western side.However,in every soci oeconomi c category,impacts woul d be the same or 1ess with a rail- road than with the road.The single exception would be in rail indus- try activities,which would experience major changes. I t 'I 1 I .J ! ~r I j I J I J I I [1 !]With a road constructed from the Denali Highway to the damsites (Corri- dor 3),impacts along the Parks Highway-Alaska Railroad corridor would depend upon whether materi a1s were to be shi pped by road or ra i1 to Cantwell before being transported along the Denali Highway to the access road.If Corridor 3 is used, impacts wou1 d occur in the Cant- well area regardless of the transportation mode •. 11.5 -Route Selection and Evaluation Following identification of three major corridors,a number of access routes were selected and evaluated based on engineering and economic criteria.The selected routes were then modified on the basis of an environmental analysis. Following corridor definition,various segments that met the engineering criteria were mapped.These segments were then joint- ed to form alternative routes which were compared on the basis of: The preliminary design criteria adopted for the access road and rail alternatives were selected on the basis of similar facilities provi ded for other remote projects of thi s nature.Basic para- meters were as follows: overall length; - average grade per mile;and - average deflection per mile. (b)Economic Criteria Ra ilroad 2.5 percent 10 degrees not appli- cable E-50 Access Road 6 percent 5 degrees 80k per axle and 200 k total HS-20- After Construction Maximum Grade Maximum Curvature Design Loading -During Construction (a)Design Criteria Construction of the Susitna project wi 11 require a dependable, safe,and efficient access route suitable for transporting person- nel,consumable supplies and large pieces of equipment for an ex- tended period,in adverse weather conditions.IIL IJ IJ For the early stages of corridor and route selection,the alterna- tives were compared on the basis of total centerline length of route,with mi nor adjustments for average grade and curvature. Preliminary capital costs for construction were estimated at $1,250,000 per mile. 11-5 (c)Results A total of 16 segments,combined into 30 routes,were identified within the three corridors.The alternatives identified as being most favorable in terms of overall length,grade and alignment are as follows (the routes are described and presented in greater detail elsewhere [3J): Corridor 1 Corridor 2 Corridor 3 Corridor 2 Parks Parks Denali Gol d Creek Highway Highway Highway to Watana to Watana to Watana to Watana south side north side south side Type Road Road Road Rail Overall length 64.9 mil es 66.5 miles 39.1 mil es 58.0 mil es Average Grade 2.4 percent 2.2 percent 1.3 percent 0.5 percent Deflection per Mi 1e 7° 06 1+4° 50°+1° 30 1+5°11 1 + (d)Environmental Influences on Alternative Routes After the engineering and economic assessment identified the 3 roads and 1 rail route described above,an initial screening was made which resulted in several refinements to the alternative routes under consideration.A major refinement involved the dele- tion of a large portion of the road access corridor from the Parks Highway on the north side of the river (Corridor 1).The segment connect i ng the hi ghway and the Devi1 Canyon site routed around Portage Creek was deleted mainly on the basis of potentially severe environmental impacts on anadromous fish,furbearers,and r aptor s, The topography in the Portage Creek area is furthermore ------"--.--------------.-.-.-----...",--.,....------.5 uc tr··--tnat"ttre---·o\rer-·,rl--'---"-erng't-h-"'-o-f--·-r-o-a-d~-n-e-c-e-s-s-·ary----t-o-·---me·et-"",·t-h"e----e-st--ab-,;;-.------ lished criteria was excessive.In addition,the construction of the segment would be extremely difficult due to the.predominance of steep sidehill cuts of considerable height. Another major refinement to the corridors was the routing to the west cf the northern portion of the Denali route (Corridor 3). This routing was advocated on environmental grounds in an attempt to reduce potential impacts on the caribou subherd calving area near Butte Lake.A final refinement consisted of realignment of the portion of the Corridor on the south side of the river (Corri- dor 2)in the Stephan Lake-Fog Lakes area to reduce potential environmental impacts to fur bearers and waterfowl. 11-6 I I I I .J I I 1 I I [ I ·1 I '! ,j ] I I The main routes within the corridors remalnlng after the initial screening are described below (see Plate 11,2): (i)Parks Highway to Devil Canyon This route follows the existing portion of the Alaska Rail- road between Gold Creek and the intersection of the rail- road with the Parks Highway just south of Hurricane.Trav- eling southeast from Hurricane,this route passes through Chulitna Pass and then parallels the Indian River to Gold Creek.The existing river valley is sufficiently wide to accommodate a road.From Gol d Creek to Devil Canyon,the route lies south of the Susitna River,paralleling the river on a high ridge. (ii)Devil Canyon to Watana - South Side of Susitna River This route generally parallels the Susitna Ri ver and tra- verses west to east from Devil Canyon to Watana.The lnl- tial topography is mountainous and the route involves the most difficult construction of the three routes,requiring a number of sidehill cuts in rock and soil.This route also includes the environmentally sensitive Stephan Lake and Fog Lake areas. (iii)Devil Canyon to Watana - North Side of Susitna River This route generally parallels the Susitna River and tra- verses west to east from Devil Canyon to Watana.Thi s route is mountainous and includes terrain at the highest elevations of all routes;however,construction of the road would not be as difficult as the route between the damsites on the south side of the Susitna River. (iv)Denali Highway to Watana This route connects the Denali Highway with the Watana site and runs in a north-south direction.This route is the easiest to construct of the alternative routes.The ter- rain is relatively flat with a few wetlands involved.This route would not require any major bridges. 11.6 -Description of Basic Plans From the three routes r emat m ng after the i nit ia1 screen ing, ei ght plans were developed.These plans were evaluated in more detail than originally planned, as a result of information and assessments conduc- ted during the study program,the concerns of state agencies,and rec- ommendati ons of the Sus itna Steeri ng Committee.The additi onal i nves- tigation and evaluations consisted of environmental field work,geo- logic and topographic mapplng,and subsurface borings. 11-7 j "j 1 1 ] "J~. ) 1 This plan would serve both damsites by a.rail line.This alterna- tive would essentially preclude public access.Construction plan- ning for this mode of access would be based on trains being broken down and cars dropped on the siding at Gold Creek.An engine and train crew would be stationed at Gold Creek which would allow shuttle cars from Gold Creek to the project site on a daily basis. Passenger rail service would be required daily.If public access is desired after construction,the rails could be removed and the road bed graded into a single lane road with turnouts.~ Thi s pl an serves Watana by truck from a railhead at Cantwell and Devil Canyon by rail from Gold Creek.In the pl an,there is no connection between dams. Thi s pl ans uti 1 izes a roadway from the Parks Hi ghway to Watana along the south side of the river.This access plan is based on materials such as cement and steel being brought into the state through the port of Whittier.Food and other camp supplies would be imported through Anchorage vi a contai ners,and fUfi:!1 directly from Kenai to Anchoraqe via existing pipel i ne.These materials and supplies would then be carried by rail to a railhead and stor- age area at Gold Creek.At Gold Creek,materials would be trans- ferred to trucks for transport by road to the site.Other mate- rials and supplies would be transported by truck from Anchorage along the Parks Highway to the access road.An alternative for fuel supply would be rail haul from the refinery at North Pol e, Al ask a, (b)Plan 2 (c)Plan 3 (d)Plan 4 The plans are presented below and are also shown s chemat t cal ly in Fi gures 11.2 through 11.5. (a)Plan 1 j This plan envisages the use of a combination of rail and road! transportation.Construction activities at Watana would be served from a railhead and storage area at Cantwell by truck across the Denal i Hi ghway and along a newly constructed road from the_J)enal i ) ___~~~_~~~~_HighWg)'~CQJlstructiQlLat Devi~l~C~Dyon would be.served.by rOild from a railhead at Gold Creek and road access --from Gof(f--Creek t-6-""~-~----- the Parks Highway.This plan does not include a connection be-I tween the two dams. :/1 .] 1 ) IJ (e) Plan 5 This plan serves both dams by road from a railhead at Gold Creek. The route is located on the south side of the river to Devil Can- yon with a major bridge downstream from the damsite,then follows the north side of the river to Watana.There is a road connection to the Parks Highway from Gold Creek. (f)Plan 6 This plan is identical to Plan 4 except that a service road for maintenance purposes is included on the north side of the river between the two dams. (g) Plan 7 This plan is the same as Plan 3 except that a service road would be provid,ed along the north side of the river as in Plan 6. (h) Plan 8 This plan is the same as Plan 5 except there is no road connection to the Parks Hi ghway.A newly constructed road woul d servi ce Devil Canyon from Gold Creek on the south side of the river.A major bridge would be required downstream from Devil Canyon and a new road on the north side of the river would connect the two dams.This alternative plan precludes public access. 11.7 -Additional Plans Following selection and evaluation of the eight plans described above, presentations were made to the Power Authority and the Sus i t na Hydro- e lectri c Project Steeri ng Committee.These presentations and subse- quent discussions resulted in the addition of the three plans described below and shown schematically in Figures 11.6 and 11.7. (a) Plan 9 This plan is the same as Plan 8 except access between Gold Creek and Devil Canyon is by rail along a similar route,and the rail- head is located at Devil Canyon instead of Gold Creek. (b) Plan 10 This plan is identical to PlaIT 9 except that the road conne~ting Devil Canyon and Watana is on the south side of the Susitna Ri ver , 11-9 (c) Plan 11 This plan utilizes a railhead at Cantwell, road access via the existing Denali Highway,a road from the Denali Highway to Watana and a road from Watana to Devi 1 Canyon on the north si de of the river. Plans 9 and 10 were suggested by the Steering Committee as a means to reduce accessibility to the area,thus avoiding the introduction of adverse environmental impacts into the Susitna Basin. Plan 11 was added as a possible way to provide access from only one area while also alleviating the socioeconomic impacts the communities near Hurricane would feel as a result of an access road from the west. 11.8 -Evaluation Criteria The specific objectives of the selected access plan are described in Section 11.2.The criteria used to assess the degree that any given plan satisfies these objectives are described in the following para- graphs. (a)Construction Schedule It is essential that the selected access plan be adequate to meet the overall project scheduling requirements.The load f oreces ts described in Section 5 together with the examination of the exist- i ng system and future generati ng options i ndi cated a requirement for first power from Watana in 1993.A delay in the on-line date by one year would mean that another source of fossil fuel genera- tion would have to be constructed,or the loss of load probability must be violated.In terms of present worth costs,a delay of one year would increase the present worth of the long-term costs of the project by approximately $43 million. Analysis of the construction schedule requirements for Watana dem- onstrates that an all-weather access route to the site i sr~quired by mid-1986 if the on-line date of 1993 is to be maintained.For'-the-purposesoffhese 'sfu(r;es~--Tf-n as been assumeo-nlat----aF ERC . license to construct the project will be received at the beginning of 1985,and the start of permanent work on the project will coin- cide with this date.In order to meet all the mid-1986 require- ments,it is obvious that an access route to the site would have to be constructed within approximately 18 months. A preliminary evaluation of the construction period for completion of the access plans is presented below. 11-10 1 1 1 1 ,"I,.. j: I' The pioneer road scheme can be implemented with Plans 1, 2, 5, 8, 9 and 10.Therefore,all 11 plans can be considered equivalent in terms of their ability to meet initial project requirements pro- vided a pioneer road can be constructed. Construction and Logistics Costs For the purposes of this evaluation,construction costs include the cost of constructing the access facilities,adjusted for any differences in cost of constructi ng the Susitna project itsel f which relate to the particular access plan under construction. Logistic costs are the costs associated with transporting,labor, fuel,equipment,materials and supplies to construct the two power developments. It is apparent from the above that only Plans 3, 4, 6, 7 and 11 could be constructed within the 18-month period required to main- tain the overall project schedule.Since this would severely lim- it the selection process,a scheme was developed to provide ini- tial access to the Watana site within the framework of regulatory and scheduling restraints.This scheme,described in more detail elsewhere (1),involves construction of a pioneer road to Watana from either Gold Creek or the Parks Highway.The pioneer road would consist of a gravel based road with periodic passing turn- outs and would be constructed on existing ground insofar as pos- sible to avoid significant cuts or fills.Temporary floating Bailey bridges would be used at river crossings,replaced by ice crossings in the winter.The analysis indicates that the pioneer road scheme will be sufficient to provide continuous access to the site within 18 months, and will be sufficient to support construc- tion activities until the permanent access route is completed. Certain additional licensing and permiting requirements are asso- ciated with this scheme;these are discussed in Section 11.12. 3-4 3-4 1 1 3-4 1 1 3 3 3 1 Approximate Construction Peri od (years) Parks Highway Gold Creek Denali Highway Dena 1i Hi ghway Parks Highway Denali Highway,Gold Creek Denali Highway,Parks Highway Go 1d Creek Gol d Creek Gold Creek Denali Highway Origin for Watana Access 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Plan (b) 11-11 (c)Ease of Operation and Maintenance This criterion relates to the relative ease of operation and main- tenance of the two developments after constr uct ion is complete. Initial planning envisages operation of both developments from Watana for several years after Devi1 Ca nyon is brought on-l i ne, after which time both projects will be operated remotely from a central location.Maintenance of two projects of this size and complexity will obviously be an important consideration.Duplica- tion of maintenance facilities and staff at both sites would result in a substantial increase in the annual costs of the over- all development.The most economic scheme,given the sequenc~of development,would be to establ ish an operati on and mai ntenance facility at Watana,with a reliable means of access to Devil Can- yon 32 miles downstream.In this regard,access plans with a road connect ion between the two sites have been evaluated as bei ng superior in terms of ease of operation and maintenance than plans without a road connection. (d)Flexibility in Construction Logistics and Transportation This criterion is used to evaluate the extent to which an access plan contributes to the maintenance of a reliable and flexible logistic support system during construction of Watana and Devil Canyon. For the Susitna project,a fundamental consideration is whether or not to provide a road connection to a major highway.For this evaluation,the following alternatives have been considered: - a road connection either to the Parks Hi ghway or Denali Hi gh- way; and .. -rail access only from Gold Creek. Plans 1 through 10 described in Section 11.5 all include a rall- head and storage area at Gold Creek.Accordingly,plans incorpor- ati ng a road connecti on with the Parks or·Denal i HighwaYs obv i- ously ·-pr-ov ide-gre-at·er-f-Yextb i-lity-a·n·d-r·elia·bi-Hty·-i-n---cas·e-of a transportation disruption involving the Alaska Railroad,compared to plans with "rail only"access.Specific considerations are as foll ows: Any breakdown in the rail system woul d result ina loss of all ground transportation,in the absence of an a lternat ive road system.The increased ri sk of del ays has an associ ated cost penalty.An analysis has been undertaken to quantify the risks associated with rail access only.Methodology for this risk analysis is presented elsewhere (1). 'j ] 1 ], ] ) ;;:~", J ] 1 ] ] ] .] J ,] ,J ) I' [J fJ U U U (e) - The availability of two possible modes of transportation will undoubtedly be reflected in lower and more competitive bids for construction,supply and service contracts,since contractors would otherwise include some contingency to cover transportation disruptions.Although significant,this aspect is difficult to quantify. Environmental Considerations Exclusive of socioeconomic considerations,the objective is to develop an access plan which minimizes adverse changes to the natural environment.The criteria used to assess the degree to which any plan meets this objectives are described below. (i)Effects on Big Game In the case of resident fisheries,there are relatively isolated lakes (Butte Lake,Big Lake)and streams in the northwestern section of the Upper Susitna Basin,and the Fog Lakes area that would receive additional angling pres- sure if road access was provided.These impacts can be 1essened by avoi di ng access from the Denali Hi ghway and along the south side of the Susitna River between the dam- sites. Since Devil Canyon acts as a natural barrier to anadromous fish migration,there is no concern regarding the effect of improved access on this resource upstream of Devil Canyon. However,Indian River and the Susitna River below Portage Creek,are important for salmon.Any access plans that follow or cross these rivers could affect salmon directly through habitat disruption (i.e.,sedimentation)or in- directly through increased fishing pressure.These impacts coul d be lessened by avoidi ng road access parallel i ng the Indian River. 11-13 (iii)Effects on Furbearers Wetlands, important to furbearers,have been identified be- tween the Parks Highway and Gold Creek, near Deadman Moun- tain,near Deadman and Big Lakes and the Upper Deadman Creek. In addition,the Fog Lake - Stephan Lakes wetlands complex is a valuable furbearer habitat.Ared fox denning complex has also been identified south of Deadman Mountain. Any access road crossing through these areas has the poten- tial for negative impacts on furbearers.Impacts on fur- bearers would be least by selecting access from Gold Creek to Devil Canyon on the south side of the Susitna River and on the north side of the River between the damsites. (iv)Effects on Birds Heavily forested areas between the Parks Hi ghway and Devil Canyon along riverbanks are productive avian habitat.Con- struction through these areas would disturb this habitat. (v)Effects on Wilderness Setting The Upper Susitna Basin is presently in a state of wilder- ness to semi-wilderness.Although continued intrusion with ATVs from Denali Highway,potential development of native lands and the establishment of the Indian River disposal sites have the potential of changing the character of sec- tions of the basin.The improved public access associated with construction of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project will produce a major alteration in the remoteness of the area. Natural resource agencies and the local public have expres- sed a desire to maintain the status quo to the maximum ex- tent possible.People from the urban centers of Anchorage and Fairbanks have expressed a desire to provide road ac- cess and open the area for recreati on development.The factor used to assess the potential effect of a proposed route on the wilderness setting was the ease by which the ic would have access to the area•.._._~....._-._---_._-~--.-...~_..... (vi)Effects on Archaeological Resources Archaelogical resources are likely present aleng all access routes.The segment with the least potential for affecting archaeological sites is between Gold Creek and Devil Can- yon. All other segments have a moderate to high potential of di sturbing cultural resource sites.The segments from the Denali Highway to Watana and from the Devil Canyon site to Watana north of the Sus itna Ri ver have a hi gher poten- tial for archaeological disturbance because of the treeless topography and thin soils. 11~14:. ) 1 ) .) ) J ) ) ] ) ] J J ,.J J 1 ) (IIj rl I i [ j [J [J (J rJ lJ (J [J lJ (f)Social Considerations (i)Preferences Expressed by Native Landowners -CIRI The CIRI organization has selected lands surrounding the impoundment areas and south of the Susitna River between the damsites.CIRI has officially expressed a preference for a plan providing road access from Parks Highway to both damsites along the south side of the Susitna River (Plan 1).Unofficially,they have indicated that only Plan 1 is fully acceptable to them. -Ahtna The Ahtna native corporation presently owns land boarder- ing the Denali Highway.At a public meeting in Cantwell in October 1981, a number of Ahtna members expressed a preference for a route involving the Denali Highway;how- ever,no official position from the Ahtna Corporation has been documented. In evaluating the compatability of a proposed route with native landowner preference,it was considered that only Plan 1 met the preference expressed by CIRI and that Plans 3, 4, 6, 7, or 11 woul d meet the preference of Ahtna. Since CIRI is the largest native landowner in the area and since they have officially expressed their preference, greater importance was given to their preference. (ii)Effects on Native Landowners For the purposes of plan evaluation,distinction has been made between the native preferences as expressed and Acres evaluation as to how the various access plans would affect the opportunity for the natives to develop their lands on the south side of the river. The aspects used to assess the effect of a proposed route on the opportunity for 'CIRI to develop their lands were: -The degree of access provided from a major transportation corridor to native lands; -The degree of access provided on native lands;and -The type of access provided. 11-15 (iii)Preferences Expressed by Local .Communities The local communities have expressed opinions relating to: -The access plan they prefer; -The general community lifestyle patterns they prefer;and -The general setting in the surrounding area they prefer. These preferences are discussed by community.This summary refers mainly to'the opinion expressed by the majority of residents within each community.Complete documentation of community preferences is presented in the report submitted by S.Braund (1). -Cantwell The majority of residents in Cantwell preferred the Denali access route,provided stringent hunter control was enforced. The community desired economic stimulus and were in favor of the economic changes that could result from having a major construction project in the area. They 'preferred the semi -wilderness setti ng of the Upper Susitna Basin and expressed concern over the potential effects of a Denali access on the fish and wildlife re- sources of the area. -Railroad Communities North of Talkeetna The residents of these communities were unanimous in their preference for no increase in access or development of the area.If access was required,they preferred the all-rail alternative.These communities also expressed a strong preference for maintenance of the status quo with- in their communities and the surrounding area. Attitudes were somewhat divided within this community (see S.Braund report [1J).However,the majority of residents: •Preferred to maintain their general lifestyle pat- terns; •Preferred the all-rail access plan;and 1 ';j 1 -J 1 1 --1 J J ) 1 r 1 'J J 1 ) 1 f1( I (J () U J •Preferred to maintain the semi-wilderness-wilderness setting in the Upper Susitna Basin area. - Trapper Creek Although alternative access plans considered could affect Trapper Creek differently from Talkeetna,the preferences expressed by this community were similar to those out- lined for Talkeetna. -WillowjWasila Area These communities were not contacted through Susitna com- munity workshops or the sociocultural study.Data from a study conducted in the Mat-Su Borough by the Overall Eco- nomic Development Program,Inc.indicates that people in Willow,Houston,Wasila, and Palmer tend to favor a higher rate of development than the communities north of Willow. -Indian River Land Disposal Sites In 1981,a total of 75 remote state 1and parcel s were awarded by lottery in the Indian Ri ver area.Of these, 35 were staked in the summer of 1981.The 35 land hold- ers were contacted by 1etter through t he Power Author- ity's Public Participation Office.Of the 12 responses received to date,11 favored retention of the remote sta- tus of the area and one favored road access to the area. This area would be most affected by road access from the Parks Highway and least affected by access from the Dena 1i Hi ghway. -Effect on Local Communities For the purposes of plan evaluation,distinction has been made between the local community preferences as expressed and Acres evaluation as to how the various access plans would affect the local communities. Preferences in regard to general lifestyle patterns were used to assess whether or not the communities would view projected socioeconomic changes as being positive or negative. Preferences in regard to the general setting in the sur- rounding area were used to assess whether or not project changes to this setting would be considered positive or negative. It is Acres evaluation that the Denali route with strin- gent hunting regulations implemented and enforced would 11-17 best meet the preferences expressed by the majority of the residents in Cantwell. It is Acres evaluation that for the communities north of Talkeetna, Talkeetna,and Trapper Creek,the all-rail access,and the road access would be equal in meeting their preferences for lithe general community 1ifestyl e patterns.II The communities expressed preference for the all-rail access assuming it would better maintain the status quo.Acres assessment indicates that if rai 1 access only is provided,the practicality of a self-con- tained family-status community at either of the sites would be greatly diminished and a single-status only facility would likely be established.If this were to be the case,workers would tend to locate their families in the nearest communiti es, thus i ncreasi ng the impacts on these communities. (g)Agency Concerns Correspondence, meetings and interaction with the various agencies involved with the Susitna Hydroelectric Project Steering Committee occurred throughout the study.Agency comments have been consid- ered in the evaluation.The concerns of the agencies have gener- ally related to environmental issues,with the emphasis on biolog- ical and land use impacts.Therefore,evaluation in terms of the environmental criteria discussed previously is considered to gen- erally include agency concerns. The Susitna Hydro Steering Committee has expressed the following: -Access corridors which serve a dual or triple purpose would be highly desirable; -If feasi ble,it generally prefers a rail mode of access to and within the project site; - Three environmentally sensitive areas that should be avoided • Routes from the Denali Highway; •The route crossing the Indian River and through wetlands to the Parks Highway;and •The route on the south side of the Susitna River from Devil Canyon to the proposed Watana damsite. - A pioneer road should not be built before FERC licensing. n-rs ) ] 1 l J 1 .J -~l ) 1 r 1 J ) 1 .1 :) J IIIj 11(I ) I (h) Transmission Access plan selection has been coordinated with the transmission line studies.The transmission line studies to date have identi- fied two corridors,one north of the Susitna River and one south of the Susitna River from Watana to Gold Creek.Although corri- dors run along the river,there is flexibility to expand the cor- ridor to include the access road when the decision is made as to which access route will be constructed.Due to more stringent en- gineering criteria of lines and grades for road alignments,it was decided that the selection of a transmission line route would oc- cur subsequent to the access road selection. The results of the transmission studies have also established that if the northern Denali access route is selected,the transmission line would not follow that route due to excessive cost and adverse visual impacts. (i )Recreation In discussing and evaluating the recreation plans,it has become apparent that the various recreation plans are sufficiently flexi- ble to accommodate any access route selected.No single route was identified which had superior recreational potential associated with it.Therefore,compatability with recreational aspects was essentially eliminated as an evaluation criteria. 11.9 -Evaluation of Access Plans The 11 access plans evaluated on the basis of the criteria described in Section 11.8 have been grouped in accordance with the following cate- gories in order to clarify the presentation. In addition to the specific considerations outlined in the following paragraphs,a major concern with all of the access plans is the crea- tion of access to areas previously inaccessible or relatively inacces- sible.Such access would lead to impacts to furbearers through in- creased trapping pressure and to big game through hunting pressure.In IJ II iJ [J (J II!J Category Plans providing access from both Parks and Denali Highways Plans providing access from Parks Hi ghway on ly Plans providing access from Denali Highway only Access from Gold Creek only Plan Numbers 3 and 7 1 and 5 4, 6 and 11 2, 8, 9 and 10 11-19 addition,detrimental effects could occur to all wildlife through dis- turbance and destruction of habitat by ATVs.Cultural resources would also be vulnerable to amateur collectors and ATV traffic. (a) Access to Both Parks and Denali Highways (Plans 3 and 7) (i ) Cost The costs of the 11 aJternative access plans are summarized in Table 11.1.Given the preliminary nature of the field data used to develop construction costs,construction cost differences of less than $10,000,000 (approximately 5 to 10 percent of the cost of the alternatives examined)should not be considered significant. 1 1 1 I I 1 1 ) I 1 J r J ) ) .j ) l 1 A roadway from the Parks Hi ghway woul d cross producti ve furbearer wetlands habitat between the highway and Gold Creek.The Denali segment of both these plans also crosses Biological The primary biological concerns for these two plans relate to the effects the road would have on furbearers,big game, and cultural resources. -PTans-3--ancrr-Bottr·salisfy-tlfecriterfafbr-f1 exfoilTtyfbr-_-_._. construction logistics and transportation by having a road access connecting to a major highway. Maintenance costs are a small portion of construction costs,and large variations in maintenance costs will have negligible influence on overall costs.The logistic costs are based on current freight rates and vary by less than 10 percent for all plans.The personnel shuttle costs and conti ngency ri sk costs are necessari ly approximate but are adequate for comparison purposes.When comparing the total costs,the plans were considered equal if the total costs were within $20 million,and a definite cost advantage was considered if there was a $50 million difference. On the basis of the foregoing,Plan 3 is comparable in cost to the minimum cost alternative plan. Plan 7 has approxi- mately a $60 million cost disadvantage compared to Plan 3. (ii)Ease of Operation,Maintenance and Construction Flexibility Access Plan 3 does not meet the ease of operation and main- tenance criterion because it does not have a connecting road between Watana and Devil Canyon.Access Plan 7 does meet the ease of operation criteria by having a connection service road between the two sites. (i i i) 1 J (J I ) iJ (J () IJ aquatic furbearer habitat near Deadman Mountai n,Deadman and Big Lakes,and Upper Deadman Creek. In addition,a red fox denning complex south of Deadman Mountain within one mile of the proposed road is likely to be affected. The primary concern relative to big game for both these plans is the Denali segment,which would pass through an area that has frequently been used by either major portions or all of the Nelchina herd and includes the calving and summer ranges of the northwestern subgroups of the Nelchina caribou herd.The route also lies across the late summer mi grati on route of cari bou movi ng toward Butte Lake and Gold Creek and parallels a traditional spring migration route southward to the Susitna River. The direct effects upon this group of caribou,should Plan 3 be implemented,include disturbance to cows and calves during the road construction period,a disturbance and pos- sible impediment to caribou migration as a result of in- creased traffic in the area,and the possibility of direct mortality from road kills.However,the presence of the road should not interfere with migration,since caribou are known to cross roads.Moreover,interference with the cal- ving areas could cause a major adverse impact on the fe- males who show an affinity to traditional calving grounds. Of greater importance than these factors,however,are the indirect consequences to this group of caribou of increased access to its range.An access road across this alpine tundra would provide the opportunity for all terrain vehi- cles to push a network of unplanned trails throughout the range of this subherd. This new access would cause distur- bance and increased mortality to these caribou from their contact with hunters.Thus,there is a chance that this route could lead to partial abandonment of important cari- bou habitat.Since the caribou hunt is controlled through permitting,increased hunting mortality caused by improved access should be minimal,although additional controls may be required. The actual magnitude of impact is difficult to assess since it depends on the somewhat unpredi ctable behavior of both caribou and man.With an increased emphasis on management of the area and stringent hunter control,it is technically possible to lessen the potential extent of impact.It is noted,however,that resource agencies are apprehensi ve about the success of any mitigation plans and would resist any road access from the Denali Highway. (iv)Social Considerations Without mitigating measures,access plans with a roadway originating from the Parks Highway could significantly 11-21 impact the westside communities in terms of demand for in- creased services,changes in population,housing availabil- ity,government expenditures and revenues,1abor demand, and unemployment.There will al so be si gnifi cant effects on construction,retail trade,and tourism. Many of these changes will occur as construction workers attempt to relocate to the communities near the construc- tion site.Depending upon commuting modes to the camp, there could be a large increase in vehicular traffic in the area. These access plans also include a road from the Denali Highway.As such,many of the impacts which would be felt in the west side communities of Talkeetna,Trapper Creek, and railroad communities north of Talkeetna would also occur in Cantwell.With a road from the north,it is ex- pected an increased number of workers would settle in Fair- banks, thereby reducing some of the impacts which the west side communities would experience. These plans would create economic stimulus in Cantwell but wi 11 not meet the preferences expressed by those in the west side communities who desire no change. However,road access connecting the Denali and Parks High- ways woul d create extensive pub 1ic access fo 11 owi ng con- struction thus creati ng the maximum change in the status quo of the area. As discussed under Section 11.13,it is considered that mitigation measures can be implemented to lessen the ef- fects on the west side communities of Talkeetna and Trapper Creek.With road access from the Parks Highway,change in the remoteness of Gold Creek and the Indian River Land Dis- posal sites will occur regardless of mitigation. ___mn_JQ}Access from Parks Highway Only (Plans 1 and 5 L_m _ (i)Costs Access Plan 1 is comparable to the minimum cost alternative Plan 5 (Table 11.1). (ii)Ease of Operation and Construction Flexibility Both Access Plans 1 and 5 satisfy the ease of operation criteria by having a road directly connecting both sites. Both Access Plans 1 and 5 satisfy the flexibility criteria by having a road connection with a major highway. Access Plans 1 and 5 involve a shorter haul distance com- pared to any alternative having access via Denali Highway. IF-22 1 'j l l -j ) ) ) ) j 1 11 i.) I Ii) 1 J !\ lJ I \:J I \i ) (i i i ) (i v) Anchorage has been identified as the most viable port of entry for the majority of the materials and supplies.When comparing Access Plans 1 and 5,with plans having access only from the Denali Highway,Plans 1 and 5 have a logis- tics cost advantage over any access from the Denali High- way. With the majority of materials and supplies coming from Anchorage,the access route from the Denal i Hi ghway would involve an additional haul of approximately 52 miles to Watana when compared to an access from the Parks High- way. The additional 52 miles would be a disadvantage in long-term operation and maintenance. Biological Considerations The primary concerns with access from only the Parks High- way were discussed in (a)above.Briefly,the concerns are the potential impact to furbearer habitat between the high- way and Gold Creek and potential degradation of fisheries habitat in "the Indian and Susitna Rivers.Of lesser con- cern is the disturbance of moose and bear populations and removal of their habitat caused by the northside connecting road in Plan 5. In addition to these,Plan 1 includes a connection on the south side of the Susitna Ri ver between the two damsites. This road would pass near and through extensive wetland areas in the Stephan Lake-Fog Lake area.These wet 1ands provide habitat for furbearers and waterfowl and support a 1arge,year-round concentration of moose.Because thi s area is currently relatively inaccessible,potential im- pacts i ncl ude removal of habitat and increased mortality through hunting and trapping. Social Considerations Evaluation of these plans from a socioeconomic aspect re- veals that Plans 1 and 5 will result in the greatest impact to the west side communities.Because access is provided from the west only,the majority of the impacts would be felt in the west side communities.There would be a great- er tendency for people to relocate in the communities and perhaps in Anchorage and a 1 esser tendency to.1 ive in the Fairbanks area.There would be some impacts to the Cant- well area,but fewer than with a road from Denali. In terms of public preference,these plans least meet the desires of people living in the project area.The plans would cause the greatest change in the Talkeetna-Trapper Creek area (where residents have expressed negative atti- tudes toward social change)and would minimize impacts to the Cantwell area (where residents have expressed a desire for change).The Indian River land disposal site.and Gold 11-23 Creek would experience the greatest change with the selec- tion of one of these plans. (c)Access from Denali Highway (Plans 4, 6 and 11) (i ) Costs Table 11.1 indicates that Plan 4 is comparable to the least cost alternative (Plan 5).The costs of Plans 6 and 11 are approximately $50 million greater than that of Plan 5. (ii)Ease of Operation and Construction Flexibility Plan 4 does not satisfy the ease of operation criterion due to the absence of a road directly connecting the two dam- sites.Plans 6 and 11 both have a road directly connecting the damsites,therefore both plans satisfy the ease of op- eration criterion. Plan 4 only partially meets the construction flexibility criterion.Plan 4 includes a road connect ion to a major hi ghway for the Watana development but not for the Devi 1 Canyon development.Access Plans 6 and 11 both satisfy the flexibility criteria by having a connection to a major hi ghway. (iii)Biological Considerations These three plans all involve road access from Denali High- way to Watana dams i t e,The potential biological and cul- tura 1 impacts associ ated with thi s route were discussed under (a) above.Basically,impacts could occur to por- tions of the Nelchina caribou herd through increased hunt- ing mortality and potential interference with migration and calving.Increased access and trapping press4re could also impact furbearers.In addition,because of treeless topo- graphy and shallow soil,di sturbance and removal of any ~~-~~--~--~---~-cu-Uu~alxesources-could-resuJ-t.--------- Plans 4 and 6 involve construction of a r at l connecting from Gold Creek to Devil Canyon.No major environmental problems were identified along this portion of the route. The connection road on the north side of the Susitna River between the two dams was discussed under (b) above,the only environmental concern bei ng the crossi ng of moose and bear habitat. (iv)Social Considerations Plans 4, 6 and 11 involve access from the Denali Highway, rather than the Railbelt Corridor.Workers'families would tend to locate to more communities,including Cantwell and 11I ) 1 ) r ) )lJ (d) Fairbanks.Due to the rail access from Gold Creek,there would still be some impact on the west side communities, but less than with a road originating from the Parks High- way.Plan 11,involving access from Denali Highway only, would cause the greatest number of changes in the Cantwell and Fairbanks area and essentially no impacts on west side communities. Access from Gold Creek Only (Plans 2, 8, 9 and 10) (i)Costs Table 11.1 indicates that the total costs of Plan 8 and 9 are respectively $15 and $30 million greater than the least cost alternative,Plan 5.The substantial savings in con- structi on costs are offset by increased personnel shutt1 e costs and an allowance for contingency risk.The cost comparison also shows that the total costs of Plans 2 and 10 are $55 million and $40 million more than that of the least cost alternative. (ii)Ease of Operation and Construction Flexibility Access Plans 2, 8, 9 and 10 all only partially satisfy the ease of operation and maintenance criteria.These plans have either a road or a rai 1road directly connecti ng the two damsites,however,none of them have a connection to a major highway.This reduces the flexibility in operation and maintenance of the sites as discussed in Section 11.8. Access Plans 2, 8, 9 and 10 do not satisfy the flexibility criteria for construction as they do not have a road con- nection to a major highway. (J i I\1 I 1iI (i ii )Biological Considerations These p1 ans all prec1 ude access from the Parks Hi ghway or Denali Highway;therefore,the impacts associated with in- creased access are substantially reduced. Plans 2 and 10,which involve connections between Watana and Devil Canyon on the south side of the Susitna River, have as the major potential environmental impacts,the dis- turbance of wet1 and areas near Stephan and Fog Lakes, as discussed under (b) above. The overall reduction in access and the fact there is no access connecting with the Denali Highway to the north in- dicates these plans would result in the least number of im- pacts to biological and cultural resources. 11-25 (iv)Social Considerations These plans all involve access from the west by rail only to Gold Creek, then from Gold Creek the only difference be- ing road or rail,and if rail,the distance into the basin the railroad extends.As such, impacts would be concen- trated in the Gold Creek area as well as Talkeetna and Hurricane because of their location at rail-highway inter- sections.The Cantwell and Fairbanks areas would be less affected as there would be no northerly access. The public has expressed a preference for a rail access and a mai ntenance of the status quo.Al though rai 1 access woul d best mai ntai n the status quo of the Upper Susitna Basin in general with the rail access,significant changes could occur in the Talkeetna/Trapper Creek area as discus- sed in Section 11.8(f). These plans would not meet the public preferences expressed by Cantwell residents. 11.10 -Identification of Conflicts From the evaluation presented in Section 11.9,it is apparent no single plan meets all the objectives or satisfies all the criteria established as part of the study.The basic conflicts identified were: (a)Social and Biological Considerations vs Construction and Operation Logistics Rail or road access from a railhead at Gold Creek without road access from a major highway would limit social and biological changes in the immediate project area and retain the status quo to the greatest extent possible.This option is in direct conflict with the requirement to provide flexibility in construction logis- tics and transportation and to provide ease of operation and main- tenance.The selection of such an option would increase the risk of high costs,schedule delays,and safety problems and decreaseproject _-_._.- (b)Social vs Biological Considerations Social and biological objectives are not in basic conflict since limited access to the project area is most desirable in both cases.If,however,the assumption is made that road access to a major highway will be provided,then a conflict arises.From the social/local public preference perspective,access from the Denali Highway is preferred.This plan would create the economic stimu- lus desired in Cantwell,reduce the potential for change in the Trapper Creek/Talkeetna area,while retaining the remoteness of the Indian Ri ver land disposal site and the railroad communities north of Talkeetna.The Denali access,however,is in conflict 11-26 l .J 1 l I ! l I .j .1 1 "I ) l I I) I J I] i I (I 1 , J I I .J with biological objectives since it would allow access by hunters and ATVs to a large portion of the Upper Susitna Basin and create potential impacts on the Ne1china Caribou,other big game species including moose and bear,the fisheries in isolated lakes and streams and furbearer habitat.In additi on,the potential for disturbance of archaeological sites in this area is greatest.Al- though mitigation measures can be employed to reduce these poten- tial biological impacts,it is noted that government resource agencies are apprehensi ve about the success of any control pro- grams and would thus be opposed to access from the Denali Highway. The selection of a Denali access plan could result in unacceptable delays in license approval or a subsequent rejection of this plan requiring a reassessment of access plans from the west. Table 11.2 broadly summarizes the conflicts in the evaluation. 11.11 -Comparison of Access Plans (a)Access from Railhead at Gold Creek (Plans 2, 8, 9 and 10)vs Access from Major Highway (Plans 1,3,4,5,6, 7,11) Considerable cost,schedule,safety and reliability risks are associated with construction of a major project without road access to a major highway.On the other hand, road access to a major highway will create additional change in the status quo of the Upper Susitna Basin.If the decision is made to develop a large scale hydroelectric facility in the Upper Susitna Basin,it is considered essential that the orderly development and mainten- ance of the facility should be afforded a higher priority than maintenance of the status quo. Thus, access plans originating at a railhead at Gold Creek only are not recommended. These considerations led to the rejection of plans not providing road access to a major highway. f 1I!lJ Plans eliminated in this comparison: Plans remaining: 2,8,9,10 1,3,4,5, 6, 7, 11 I ! i IL__.1 \I ....J (b)Access from Both Parks Highway and Denali Highway (Plans 3, 7)v~ Access from Only One Highway (Plans 1,4, 5, 6,11) The plans which optimize transportation flexibility and ease of operation,Plans 3 and 7, involve the initial construction of a road from Denali Highway to Watana damsite.To allow for improved logistics during the peak construction at Watana and throughout the construction of Devil Canyon,road access would also be created to the Parks Hi ghway.The disadvantages of these plans are that they would create the maximum change in the status quo produci ng both the bi 01 ogica1 impacts associ ated with the Denali link and the social impacts associated with the Parks Highway link.These impacts are further intensified with both roads since 11-27 These conclusions resulted in the rejection of the plans providing road access to both the Parks and Denali Highway. connection of the Parks and the Denali Highway would encourage hunters and tourists to drive the complete loop. Roadway Connecting the Damsites Directly (Plans 1,5, 6,11)vs No Roadway Connecting the Damsites Directly (4) Plans incorporating a road connecting the damsites directly are clearly superior in terms of ease of operation and maintenance to plans which do not directly connect the dams t tes,The access plans which do not connect the damsites directly do not have ad- vantages in any of the other,or combined criteria to warrant not eliminating these alternatives from further consideration. 1 I l oj ! 1 1 ·l.- 1 I 3, 7 1,4,5,6,11 Plans eliminated in this comparison: Plans remaining: These plans are al so more costly than the mi nimum cost alterna- tives.It is considered that the social and biological impacts that woul d result from these plans cannot be just ifi ed by the added transportati on fl exibi1ity and ease of operati on benefits associated with road access to both the Parks and Denal i High- ways. (c) These conclusions resulted in the rejection of plans not connect- ing the damsites directly. Plans eliminated in this comparison: Plans remaining: 4 1,5,6,11 (d) Access to Denali Highway (Plans 6,11)vs Access to Parks Highway (Plans 1,5) The main concerns associated with the Denali access are the poten- tial effects on the Nelchina caribou herd,increased access to a large area of alpine tundra with the associated effects of distur- .---------~-.-....-banceoyATVs and di slLlroi3.nc::e ()fp()fer'lfrarcunuraTr-esources~- Although there are some fisheries and furbearer concerns in the Indian River area associated with a Parks Highway access,from the biological perspective,Parks Highway access is preferred to a Denali Highway access. In terms of construction logistics and long-term operation,the access from the Parks Highway is preferred.Any access plan which utilizes the Denali has an additional haul distance of 52 miles for the majority of construction equipment and supplies and long- term mai ntenance and resupply.With a Denal i road access,it is still preferable to transport equipment and supplies to Devil Canyon from Gold Creek,thus creating access to the area from both 11-28 1 il I] (J 1 the north via Denali and the west from Gold Creek. In terms of initial project scheduling,the Denali route or the Parks Highway route with the pioneer road are considered similar. From a perspective of social change, the Denali route is consid- ered to have the advantage compared to the Parks Hi ghway route. The Denali route would promote the economic stimulus desired in Cantwell while reducing the influence on the communities of Trapper Creek,Talkeetna,and north of Talkeetna,which have ex- pressed a desire to maintain their general lifestyle patterns.It is considered,however,that even with a Parks Highway access, mitigation in the form of self-contained construction camp facil- ities,regulation of commuter schedules,and control of transportation modes can reduce or avoid many of the potential changes in Talkeetna and Trapper Creek.It is also considered that,with the Parks Highway access,changes to these communities would be greater than changes that would occur with a Denali access.These changes,however,are not considered significantly greater,and therefore,for comparison purposes,the Denali route is considered to have a slight advantage. A Parks Highway route also allows the transmission line and access road to be constructed in a common corridor. Considering native landowner preferences,the Parks Highway route is considered to have the advantage over the Denali route. With any access plan from the west, a major railhead would be lo- cated at Gold Creek creating local changes.With road access from the Parks Highway to Gold Creek, changes will also occur at the Indian River disposal sites. Based on the above di scussi on,it is conc1 uded that the Parks Highway access is preferable to the Denali access plan.This con- clusion is based on the assumption that if a Denali route were selected: It would be Plan 6,which would still result in significant social changes in the Gold Creek area; -Mitigation planning,preparation of environmental impact state- ments,and the permitting process itself could cause delays of 1 to 2 years,since there are a number of significant environmen- tal concerns with the Denali route expressed by resource agencies; -Changes in local communities can,to a large degree,be miti- gated through control s imposed on contractor and constr ucti on workers;and 11-29 11.12 -Recommended Access Plan Based on the above discussion,it is recommended that: -Controls would be very difficult to impose upon hunters and ATV operators who would utilize the Denali route after construction. I 1 1 ).I 'j J ~'-"'l.. J I I ] I 1 ) I 1 I -! 6, 11 1,5 Plans eliminated in this comparison: Plans remaining: Plans 1 and 5 both commence on the Parks Hi ghway near Hurricane and proceed through Chulitna Pass and along the Indian River to Gold Creek.From Gold Creek, both plans proceed east on the south side of the Susitna River to the Devil Canyon site.At Devil Can- yon, Plan 1 proceeds east on the south side of the Susitna River to the Watana site.Plan 5 crosses the Sus itna Ri ver at Devi 1 Canyon and proceeds east on the north side of the Susitna River to the Watana site.Access Plan 1 has potential for greater environ- mental impacts than Access Plan 5. This is because of extensive wetland areas in the Stephan Lake -Fog Lake area.The wetlands provide habitat for furbearers and waterfowl and support a large, year-round concentration of moose.Providing road access:into this area increases the potential for adverse impacts by removal of habitat and increased mortality through hunting and trapping. Access Plan 1 is more difficult to construct than Access Plan 5 because of the more difficult terrain in the segment between Devil Canyon and Watana,south of the Susitna River.The difficult ter- rain would require considerable steep sidehill construction and a large bridge over Cheechacko Creek,just east of the Devil Canyon dams t t e. The foregoing considerations resulted in the elimination of plans i nvol vi ng access'from the Denal i Hi ghway. Plans eliminated in this comparison:1 Plans remaining:5 Based on the above considerations,it is concluded that Access Plan 5 would better meet the overall projeet objectives than Access Plan I. Access Plan 1 has an advantage over Access Plan 5 in native land- owner (CIRI)preference.Al though Plan 5 does not totally meet the preference expressed by CIRI,it does create road access to native lands,thus providing a major transportation link which would allow the native landowners to develop their lands more .eCfsi Iy than is presently possible'; -The selected access plan for the construction and operation of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project should comprise a road commencing near (e)Comparison of Plan 1 vs Plan 5 11 () ] II j MP 156 on the Parks Highway,proceeding southeast crossing the Susitna River at Gold Creek,turning northeast to Devil Canyon dam- site along the southern side of the Susitna River,crossing the Susitna River at Devil Canyon,and proceeding along the north side of the Susitna River to Watana damsite (see Plate 35). -To allow for continued access for project construction by mid-1986,a limited access pioneer road between Gold Creek and Watana damsite be constr ucted commenci ng in mi d-1983.The app1 i cati on for permits to construct this pioneer road be submitted to the State of Alaska and the Bureau of Land Management by September 1982, independent of the FERC license application. -To mitigate against the possibility of unrestricted public access to the area in the event that the project is not built,road access be- tween the Parks Highway and Gold Creek not commence until after FERC license approval.If the project does not proceed after the pioneer road is constructed,the road as such should be rendered impassable to future vehicular traffic. -To minimize potential impacts to furbearers and fisheries resources in the Indian River and Susitna River areas,special construction techniques be utilized (including adequate bank stabilization,reveg- etation and restoration)when crossing wet1 and areas or when con- structing in proximity to any important stream,river or water body. -To minimize the effects of public access during the operation phase of the project consideration be given to controlling public access across Devil Canyon Dam.If access is provided east of Devil Canyon damsite,restrictions should be placed on the use of ATVs and hunt- ing. To assist in minimizing changes in the local communities of Tal- keetna,Trapper Creek,Sherman and Curry,it is strongly recommended that subsequent decisi on on constructi on camp faci1 it ies,commuter modes,work incentives,and genera1 po 1icies i ncorpor ate a specia1 effort to minimize the effects of construction on these local commun- ities.Specific mitigation recommendations are included in Section 11.13. The foregoing is based on the following assumptions: -The pioneer road concept wi 11 be approved by government regu1 atory agencies since the pioneer road would not connect to any existing road before the issuing of a FERC license,thus not making the prior commitment to a11owlngpub1ic access to the Upper Susitna Basin. -Although the native landowners (CIRI)have expressed a strong prefer- ence for road access from Parks Hi ghway to both damsites along the south side of the Susitna River, they would receive significant benefits from the recommended road access to their existing land holdings. 11-31 -Public access will be prohibited during the construction phase of the project.Also, the selection of Plan 5 offers some flexibility in regard to the degree and type of public access subsequent to 1993. -Most biological and social impacts will be mitigated through adoption of the recommendations presented in Section 11.13. If the pioneer road concept ,receives institutional opposition from agencies from which permits must be received,than a Denali route al- ternative (preferably Plan 6)is the only means by which the overall project schedule can be retai ned.If the required permits are not ob- tained by mid-1983,it will be necessary to reevaluate the options and possibly amend the FERC License Application to include an access plan that retains the overall project schedule. 11.13 -Mitigation Recommendations The plan recommended by Acres does not satisfy all the evaluation cri- teria outlined in Section 11.2.In order to reduce potential impacts to biological and cultural resources and to alleviate socioeconomic im- pacts to the communities of Talkeetna,Trapper Creek,Sherman and Curry,the following mitigation measures are recommended: - Permit only on-duty construct ion workers to have access to both the pioneer road and access road. -After construction of the power development is complete,maintain a controlled access route beyond the Devil Canyon Dam.It is antici- pated a cooperative agreement could be reached with BLM and APF&G concerni ng the number of people permitted access to the areas and contro 1 measures could be i mpl emented by mai ntenance and secur ity personne 1. -The construction camp should be as self-contained as possible,thus limiting the number of workers who might otherwise bring their fam- ilies to a nearby community and commute daily. - Provide incentives to encourage workers to work the longest time pos- -------.-.-si-b-lebetween-leaves ·tominimize--commuter~i;raff-ic-.~A-l-i;h0 ugh~t-he ...------_.-.- final schedule will not be known until labor agreements are estab- lished and construction commences,longer work periods between breaks can be advocated. - Provide planning assistance if requested to the communities of Tal- keetna and Trapper Creek and railroad communities north of Talkeetna to aid them in preparing for the effects of potential increased populations. -Evaluate various commuter management policies and select the one whi ch reduces impacts to the 1ccal.icomam Hies._Socioeconomi c impact assessment studi es currently under way for the Sus itna Project wi 11 provide important input data for evaluating possible commuter manage- ment policies. .~ I 1 l I l ..~"-~l l 1 ~ 1 1 ]- :1 I ,] 1 ! l] 11 I 1 i I\J -Utilize excavated cuts and other construction techniques to prohibit utilization of the pioneer road after construction of the access road.Areas used for the pioneer road which do not follow final road alignment should be reclaimed. The total costs for the mitigation measures are estimated to be about $3.5 million (1982 dollars).These capital costs are not considered to influence the evaluation and comparison of alternatives. 11.14 -Tradeoffs Made in the Selection Process (a) Basis of Selection Process From the natural resource and local public preference perspective, mai ntenance of their general 1ifestyl e patterns is probably most favored.However,it is unrealistic to consider that a project the size of Susitna can be implemented without changing the exist- ing character of sections of the Upper Susitna Basin. Access to the damsites is a complex and controversial issue.As such,it has received considerable attention from the study team, APA,resource agencies and the public.Although the studies have determined that there is no single access plan that satisfies all the project objectives and evaluation criteria,it has been pos- sible to develop an access plan which provides a reasonable trade- off of preference.These tradeoffs are essenti ally based on the following compromises: - All entities must present a degree of flexibility,otherwise a satisfactory compromise is impossible. -Whenever a specific objective is partially compromised,consid- erable effort is made during subsequent decisions to compen- sate. -Any compromises made are clearly outlined such that decision makers reviewing the final recommendation are aware of negotia- tions to date. (b)Tradeoffs Made in the Selection Process iJ /] 1 (i)Engineering Concessions made include: -No road access from Denali Highway which would include a complete loop connecting Parks Highway with Denali High- way; 11-33 No pioneer road to Parks Highway prior to the issuance of a FERC license; -Commitment to be prepared to make the pioneer road impas- sible if FERC license not granted;and -Restrictions to be placed on worker commuting schedules and mode;worker incentives to be provided to minimize effects on local communities. Objectives retained include: -Road access to both dams ites to allow for ease of con- struction,operation and maintenance of the project; -Maintenance of schedule through retention of the pioneer road concept. (t t )Biological Concessions made include: -Road access from Parks Highway affecting Indian River area and providing partial public access to the upper bas in. Objectives retained include: -No access from Denali Hi ghway wh ich was considered to have the greatest potential for environmental impact; -No route on the south side of the Susitna River between the damsites,thus avoiding the sensitive Stephan Lake and Fog Lakes area; -Emphasis on construction mitigation when developing road link between Parks Highway and Gold Creek; and -Retention of a degree ofeontrolonfuturepubl-ic access by accepti ng the Parks Hi ghway p1 an where,due to the terrain,private vehicles are basically restricted to the access corridor between Parks Highway and the Devil Can- yon damsite.The degree and type of access east of Devil Canyon can be somewhat controlled by regulation of access across the Devil Canyon dam. The alternative of not connecting to a major highway was considered to have the 1ea~t net adverse biological impact. The ease of operation and maintenance and the construction flexibility criteria,as explained previously,was consid- ered to outweigh this advantage.The mitigation measures l 1 I I I -l ~l 1 I, I l l~ I I ..j I i] , I Ii ) (j LJ 11 and road management will reduce the adverse biological im- pacts associated with an access connection to a major high- way,to a minimum. (iii)Social Concessions made include: -Road access to the Upper Susitna Basin; -Road access from Parks Highway which creates greatest potential for change in the Indian River land disposal site. Objectives retained include: -Through the implementation of a relatively self-contained construction camp,restriction of private vehicles from the construction site,implementation of mass transit modes for commuting workers,incentives to encourage workers to remai n on site and controlled pub 1ic access east of Devil Canyon following construction,it is con- sidered that changes in the local communities of Trapper Creek/Talkeetna area will be minimized; -Although the western communities favored a rail access, they also favored maintaining their general lifestyle patterns.The recommended plan with its associated miti- gation should produce less change in the Talkeetna/ Trapper Creek area than an all-rail access plan. Overall consensus of the local community preference favored access from the Denali Hi ghway.The advantages of the Parks Highway access over the Denali access in reducing the biological impacts is considered to outweigh the local com- munity preference.In addition to the lessened biological impacts,the recommended plan better meets the preferences of Native landowners. The recommended plan does not fully meet the preferences of the Native landowners.They would prefer the access road between Devi 1 Canyon and Watana be located on the south side of the Susitna Ri ver,The advantages of the road being located on the north side of the Susitna River, include,reduced biological impacts,the actual construc- tion of the road is easier than if located on the south side.The recommended plan would,however,provide a major transportation link which would allow the native landowners to develop their land more easily than is presently pos- si b1e. These advantages are considered to outwei gh the native landowner preference to have the road located on the south side of the Susitna River. 11-35 11 f 1 i j \. lJ LJ /] Ii 1 I LIST OF REFERENCES 1. Acres American Incorporated,Task 2 -Access Route Selection Report,March 1982. 2.Terrestrial Environmental Specialists,Environmental, Socioeco- nomic,and Land Use Analysis of Alternative Access Plans, October 1981. 3.R&M Consultants,Subtask 2.10 -Access Planning Study,March 1982. L- TABLE 11.1:SUSITNA ACCESS PLANS ~._- DESCRIPT ION:ROAIJiIAY:PARKS RAIL:GOLD ROAIJiIAY:DENALI ROAIJiIAY:DENALI ROAIJiIAY:PARKS ROAIJiIAY:DENALI RDAIJiIAY:DENALI RDAIJiIAY:GOLD RAIL:GOLD RAIL:GOLD RDAIJiIAY:DENALI HIGHWAY TO DEVIL CREEK TO DEVIL HIGHWAY TO HIGHWAY TO HIGHWAY TO DEVIL HIGHWAY TO HIGHWAY TO CREEK TO DEVIL CREEK TO DEVIL CREEK TO DEVIL HIGHWAY TO WATANA CANYON &WATANA CANYON &WATANA WATANA,PARKS WATANA,RAIL,GOLD CANYON ON SOUTH WATANA,RAIL,GOLD WATANA,PARKS CANYON ON SOUTH CANYON ON SOUTH CANYON ON SOUTH CONNECTING ROAD ON SOUTH SlOE ON SOUTH SIDE HIGHWAY TO CREEK TO DEV IL SlOE OF SUSITNA,CREEK TO DEVIL HIGHWAY TO DEVIL SIDE OF SUSITNA, SlOE OF SUSITNA, SIDE OF SUSITNA.BETWEEN WATANA OF SUSITNA OF SUSITNA DEVIL CANYON CANYON ON SOUTH DEVIL CANYON TO CANYON ON SOUTH CANYON ON SOUTH DEV IL CANYON TO ROAIJiIAY DEVIL ROAIJiIAY DEVIL ANO DEVIL CANYON ON SOUTH SlOE SIDE OF SUSITNA.WAT ANA ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. SlOE OF SUSITNA.WATANA ON NORTH CANYON TO WATANA CANYON TO WATANA ON N,lJRTH SlOE OF SUSITNA.NO NO CONNECTING SlOE OF SUSITNA.CONNECTING ROAD CONNEC TING ROAD SIDE OF SUSITNA.ON NORTH SIDE ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. CONNECTING ROAD ROAD ON NORTH SIDE OF ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA.OF SUSITNA. SUSITNA.OF SUSITNA. MILEAGE OF NEW ROAD 62 5B 70 60 68 102 111 54 58 53 86 CONSTRUCT ION COST ($x 1,000,000)15B 140 151 119 143 179 209 93 108 123 145 MAINTENANCE COST rs x 1,000,000)5 4 6 5 B 8 9 7 5 5 11 LOGISTICS COST ($x 1 000,000)215 210 231 230 214 230 231 214 216 214 25B SUBTOTAL ($x 1,000,000)378 354 3B8 354 365 417 449 314 329 342 414 PERSONNEL SHUTTLE COST ($x 1,000,000)0 25 0 10 0 0 0 25 25 25 0 CONTINGENCY RISK ($x 1 000,000)0 40 0 15 0 0 0 40 40 40 0 TOTAL COSTS ($x 1,000 000)37B 419 3BB 379 365 417 449 379 394 407 414 CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE 3-4 3-4 1 1 3-4 1 1 3 3 3 1 MAJOR BRIDGES 2 2 0/1 0 2 0 0/1 1 1 1 0 TABLE 11.2:IDENTIFICATION OF CONFLICTS I CrIterla 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Costs Minimize Costs 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 Ease of Operation and Construction Flexibility Ease 0 f Ope r at ion and Maintenance 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 .~Construct ion Flexibility 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 Biological Minimize Biological Impacts 2 3 2 3 3 3 ,I Social Accommodate Preference of Native Landowners 3 2 2 Accommodate Local Community Preference 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 - Does not sat isfy cr iter ia 2 -Intermediate 3 -Satisfies criteria J 1.1 L_~_-J w w w w WDEFINE OBJECTIVES I--DESIGN PARAMETERS SCREENING PROCESS PLAN FORMULATION EVALUATION SELECT ACCESS ROADWAY AND RAIL .....TECHNICAL f-3 ROUTES ONE IN ADDITIONAL STUDIES r"II ALTERNATIVE PLANS ROUTE TO HYDROPOWER ENGINEERING CRITERIA ECONOMIC EACH CORRIDOR SOILS DATA ARE EVALUATED TO SITES THAT ALLOWS i ENVIRONMENTAL AS A RESULT OF ENGINEERING THE FOLLOWING CONSTRUCTION AND PUBLIC PREFERENCES THE SCREENING .......CONSTRUCTION COSTS -CRITERIA OPERATION WHILE -bJ TRANSMISSION IMPACT PROCESS IN @]LOGISTICS COSTS ENGINEERINGBEST MEETING ARE ESTABLISHED TRANSMISSION IMPACT ECONOMICOVERALLCRITERIAESTABLISH CANDIDATES t ENVIRONMENTALSTATED IN I]J A TOTAL OF 33 -H ENVIRONMENTAL I-SCHEDULINGROUTES ARE PORT FACILITIES DESIRED LEVEL OFESTABLISHEDINROADWAYOPTIONSHLABOR ORGANIZATION ~ACCESSTHE3CO~RIDORS RAIL OPTIONS CONCERNS AGENCY CONCERNS +LOGISTIC REQUIREMENTS SOCIAL PREFERENCES TRANSMISSION!AGENCY CONCERNS 2A AS A RESULT OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION 8 PLANS,WHICH f-t.AGENCY CONCERNS, I- PRESENT THE OPTIONS ~UTILIZED THE 3 ADDITIONAL PLANS TO THE PUBLIC AND 3 ROUTES ARE "-ARE ESTABLISHED INVITE COMMENT ESTABLISHED HNATIVE LANDOWNERS ~PREFERENCES LOCAL COMMUNITY PREFERENCES ACCESS PLAN SELECTION METHODOLOGY FIGUREll.lm PARKS HWY. ALASKA RAILROAD DENALI HWY. HURRICANE PROPOSEDl·ROAD t ---~-__Ill D.C.- -LWATANA GOLD SITE SITE CREEK PLAN I HURRICANE DENALI HWY. FIGURE 11.2 • PLAN 2 ALASKA-~ RAILROAD CANTWELL. HURRICANE PLAN 3 I I I I ROADS~ I I tWATANA SITE -j D.C. SITE DENALI HWY. PROPOSED ~­lLG~- CREEK !1II [1 CANTWELL HURRICANE ALASKA RAILROAD DENALI HWY. PLAN 4 I I I PROPOSED~I ROAD ~ I I I tWATANA SITE FIGURE 11.31 ~~I!~1 CANTWELL HURRICANE ALASKA RAILROAD DENALI HWY. PLAN 5 FIGURE 11.4 [81 DENALI HWY. PLAN 6 I I I I I PROPOSE!!IROAD ~PROPOSEDRAIL I ------t!.r~I 11111 \\'i LtGOLDD~WATANA CREEK SITE SITE CANTWELL HURRICANE [J HURRICANE PLAN 7 FIGURE 11.5 [Ii] DENALI HWY. DENALI HWY. PLAN 8 LPROPOSEDlROAD ---t:L~-UCJ ---lWATANA CREEK SITE SITE I I I I I I PROPOSEO ROA:0 ~;;;LD -~;j ---tWATANA CREEK SITE SITE CANTWELL ALASKA RAILROAD U lJ U () [-) ~l f] [J I~~J [J I] IJ I] IJ [J I] I) LJ FIGURE 11.6. J PROPOSED ROAD .,..,.",.----.., -'-WATANA SITE PLAN 10 PLAN 9 DENALI HWY. DENALI HWY. [ PROPOSED ROAD ~4-l-4-I+~r --t - - -WATANA SITE CANTWELL CANTWELL HURRICANE HURRICANE ALASKA RAILROAD PARKS HWY. PARKS HWY. lJ l_J U IJ IJ r~l I j r~] IJ lJ [J U U (J CANTWELL HURRICANE t GOLD CREEK DENALI HWYo , I, I, PROPOSEDTi'ROAD , ---..J.......-..,- Docf WATANA SITE SITE PLAN 1\ FIGURE 11.7 m i _r--L __ ~~L--....1 ~~ ® T.20S T.9N. 'LS;;;(~d '3 f·\~.(I !),1m ---'...'"R.9E..I : R.IOE.R.IIE. R.12E.: U <t B MILES SCALE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALTERNATIVE ACCESS CORRIDORS REFERENCE:BASE MAPFROM USGS.1:250,000 HEALY,ALASKA TALKEETNAMOUNTAINS.ALASKA ~~ ACRESA'NERICANiNCORPORm"o PLATE 11.1 ® RAW.R.3W. i i •~:---''----------i ----' LEGEND ----ACCESS ALTERNATE I==ACCESSALTERNATE 2 ----ACCESS ALTERNATE 3 SCALE 0 4 8 MILES ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNAHYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALTERNATIVE ACCESS ROUTES REFERENCE:BASE MAP FROM USGS,'.250,000 HEALY,ALASKA TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS,ALASKA ] ) J r I U u u u u 12 -WATANA DEVELOPMENT This section describes the various components of the Watana Develop- ment,including diversion facilities,emergency release facilities,the main dam,outlet facilities,reservoir,main and emergency spillways, the power intake,penstocks and powerhouse complex including turbines, generators,mechanical and electrical equipment, switchyard structures and project lands.A description of the permanent and temporary access and support facilities is also included. 12.1 - General Arrangement The evolution of the Watana general arrangement is described in Section 9.The Watana reservoir and surrounding area is shown in Plate 2.The site layout in relation to main access facilities,borrow areas and camp facilities is shown in Plate 3. A more detailed arrangement of the various site structures is presented in Plate 4. The Watana dam will form a reservoir approximately 48 miles long, with a surface area of 37,800 acres,and a total volume of 9,520,000 acre- feet at a normal maximum operating elevation of 2185.During opera- tion,the reservoir will be capable of being drawn down to a minimum elevation of 2045. The dam will be an embankment structure with a central core.The crest elevation of the dam will be 2210,with a maximum height of 885 feet and a crest length of 4,100 feet.The total volume of the structure will be approximately 62,000,000 cubic yards.During construction,the ri ver wi 11 be diverted around the mai n construct i on area by means of two concrete-lined diversion tunnels,each 38 feet in diameter,on the right bank of the river. A power intake located on the right bank will comprise an approach channel cut into the rock leading to a concrete intake structure with multi-level gates capable of operation over the full 140 feet drawdown range.From the.intake structure,si x concrete-l i ned pen- stocks,each 17 feet in diameter,will lead to an underground power- house complex housing six Francis turbines with a rated capacity of 170 MW and six semi-umbrella type generators each rated at 180 MVA.Access to the powerhouse complex will be by means of an unlined access tunnel. Turbine discharge will flow through six draft tube tunnels to two surge chambers downstream of the powerhouse.Each surge chamber wi 11 dis- charge to the river through a 34-foot diameter concrete-lined tailrace tunnel.A separate transformer gallery just upstream from the power- house cavern will house nine single-phase 15/345 kv transformers.The transformers will be connected by 345 kV single-phase,oil-filled cable through two cable shafts to the switchyard at the surface. A tunnel spillway located on the right bank will be designed to dis- charge all flows resulting from floods having a return frequency of 12-1 once in 50 years or less.This structure will be equipped with six fixed-cone valves at the downstream end to eliminate undesirable nitrogen supersaturat i on in the r i ver downstream from the dam duri ng spillway operations.Flows resulting from floods with a frequency greater than once in 50 years but less than once in 10,000 years will be discharged by a chute spillway also located on the right bank.The flow down the chute spillway will be controlled at the upstream end by three fixed wheel gates leading to a reinforced concrete-lined chute section and then to a flip bucket at the downstream end.An emergency spillway on the right bank will provide sufficient additional capacity to permit discharge of the PMF without overtopping the dam.An emergency release facility will allow lowering of the reservoir over a period of time to permit emergency inspection or repair. 12.2 -Site Access (a)Roads At Watana the main access road will enter the site from the north. In addition to the main access,several additional roads will be required to the camp,village,airstrip,and tank farm.Haul roads to the borrow areas and construct i on roads to the dam and all major structures will also be required.These roads with the exception of the haul roads are shown on Plate 36. The construction roads will be 40-foot wide gravel surfaced roads with small radius curves and grades limited to 10 percent.Major cut and fill work will be avoided. A gravel pad approximately 5 feet thick will be required for the roads.This gravel pad will provide a drivable surface and also will protect against the sporadic perffiafrost areas. (b) Bridges No major temporary bridges at the Watana site will be required for the construction of the Watana development.The crests widths of the upstream and downstream cofferdams will be planned to provide suitable access to the south bank of the Susitna River during con on. The completed main dam crest will provide permanent access across the Susitna River. One area which may require a small temporary bridge is Tsusena Creek near its confluence with the Susitna River.Currently it is envisioned that this crossing can be accomplished using culverts. (c)Airstrip A permanent airstrip will be constructed approximately 2.5 miles north of the mai n construct i on camp.The runway wi 11 be 6,000 feet in length and will be capable of accommodating the C-130 12-2 ] .J ) ) 1 )1, J .) 1 ) ). ] .J ) ,t ) I ).. f]II [] I 1Ii I I (J (J Hercules aircraft,as well as small jet passenger aircraft.Roads will connect the airstrip to the camp,village,and damsite.A small building will be constructed to serve as a terminal and tower and a fuel truck/maintenance facility will be constructed. Atemporary airstrip will also be constructed to support the early phases of mobilization and construction.This temporary runway will be 2,500 feet in length and will be located in the vicinity of the main construction camp.The airstrip will be capable of supporting smaller type aircraft. The temporary airstrip will eventually be incorporated into one of the main haul roads for Borrow Site D.This will occur after the permanent airstrip is in service. (d)Access Tunnel An access tunnel wi 11 be provided to the underground powerhouse and associated works.The main access tunnel will be approximate- ly 35 feet wide and 28 feet high.The tunnel will allow permanent access to the operating development and will also be utilized during construction as the main construction tunnel.Construction adits will branch off to the various components of the development during construction. 12.3 -Site Facilities (a)General The construct i on of the Watana development will require vari ous facilities to support the construction activities throughout the entire construction period.Following construction,the operation of the Watana hydroelectric development will require certain permanent staff and facilities to support the permanent operation and maintenance program. The most significant item among the site facilities will be a combination camp and village that will be constructed and main- tained at the project site.The camp/village will be largely a self-sufficient community housing 4,000 people during construction of the project.After construction is complete,it is planned to dismantle and demobilize most of the facility and to reclaim the area.The dismantled buildings and other items from the camp will be used as much as possible during construction of the Devil Can- yon development. Other site facilities include contractors'work areas,site power,services,and communications.Items such as power and communications will be required for construction opera- t i on s independent of camp operat i on s.Th e same wi 11 be true re- garding a hospital or first aid room. 12-3 Permanent f aci1it ies requi red wi 11 inc1ude a permanent town or small community for approximately 130 staff members and their f ami 1i es.Other permanent f aci 1it ies wi 11 inc1ude a mai ntenance building for use during subsequent operation of the power plant. A conceptual plan for the permanent town has been developed,how- ever,it is recommended that the final design be deferred until near the end of construction when more information as to the design parameters is available. (b) Temporary Camp and Village The proposed location of the camp and village will be on the north bank of the Susitna Ri ver between Deadman and Tsusena Creek, approximately 2.5 mi 1es northeast of the Watana Dam.The north side of the Susitna River was chosen because the main access will be from the north and south-facing slopes can be used for siting the structures.The location is shown in Plate 36. The camp will consist of portable woodframe dormitories for bache- lors with modular mess halls,recreational buildings,bank,post office,fire station,warehouses,hospital,offices,etc.The camp will be a single status camp for approximately 3,600 workers. The village,accommodating approximately 350 families,will be grouped around a service core containing a school,gymnasium, stores,and recreation area. The village and camp areas will be separated by approximately 1.5 miles to provide a buffer zone between areas.The hospital will serve both the main camp and village. The camp location will separate living areas from the work areas by a mi 1e or more and keep travel time to work to 1ess th an 15 minutes for most personnel. The camp/village will be constructed in stages to accommodate the peak work force as presented in Table 12.1.The facilities have Been designed forlnepeakwork force plus 10 percent for turn- over.The turnover will include allowances for overlap of workers and vacations.The conceptual layouts for the camp and village are presented on Plate 37 and 38. (i)Site Preparation Both the c amp and the vi 11 age areas wi 11 be cleared in select areas,fi lter fabric wi 11 be installed,and the granular material will be placed over it.At the village site,selected areas wi 11 be left with trees and natural vegetation intact.Topsoil stripped from the adjacent Borrow Site D will be utilized to reclaim camp and village sites. 12-4 I ) 1 I I l ~ 1 .~ 1 I I) ) I ) J •.-) I J r~1 I } ("1 I J Both the main camp and the village site have been selected to provide well-drained land with natural slopes of 2 to 3 percent. A granular pad varying in thickness up to 4 feet will be placed at the main camp,covering most of the areas inside the perimeter fence.This will provide a uniform working surface for erection of the high density housing and ser- vice buildings and will serve in certain areas to protect the permafrost where it underlies the camp.In the village area,a granular pad will be installed only as necessary to support the housing units and to provide a suitable base for construction of the temporary village center buildings. All roadways within the camp/village areas will be flanked by roads i de ditches,with cul verts carryi ng water across the intersections.In general,drainage will be through construction of a surface network of ditches. (i 1)Faci 1it i es Construction camp buildings will consist largely of trai ler-type factory-bui It modules assembled at site to provide the various facilities required.The modules will be fabricated complete with heating,lighting and plumbing services,interior finishes,furnishings,and equipment. Larger structures such as the central utilities building, warehouses and hospital will be pre-engineered,steel- framed structures with metal cladding. The 1arger structures wi 11 be erected on concrete-s 1ab foundations.The slab will be cast on a non-frost suscep- tible layer at least the thickness of the annual freeze/ thaw layer. i \tJ I II,J Permawalks wi 11 connect the majority of the bui ldings and dormitories.The various buildings in the camp are identi- fied on Plate 37. A detailed description of the nature and function of the buildings is presented in Appendix B7. (c)Permanent Town The permanent town will be located at the north end of the tempo- rary village (see Plate 36)and be arranged around a small lake for aesthetic purposes. The permanent town will consist of permanently constructed build- ings.The vari ous buildi ngs in the permanent town are 1i sted below: 12-5 -Single family dwellings; -Multifamily dwellings; -Hospital; - School; -Fire station; - A town center will be constructed and will contain the followin.g: a recreation center . a gymnasium and swimming pool . a shopping center The concept of building the permanent town at the beginning of the construction period and using it as part of the temporary village was considered.This concept was not adopted,since its intended occupancy and use is a minimum of 10 years away,and the require- ments and preferences of the potential long-term occupants cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy. (d)Site Power and Utilities (i)Power El ectr i cal power will be requi red to mai ntai n the campi village and construction activities.A 345 kV transmission 1ine wi 11 be constructed and wi 11 serv i ce the site from 1987 onward.The 345 kV transmission line will be operated at 138 kV during the construction phase. After the Watana development is complete and in operation,the transmission line will supply power to the Intertie from Watana and will operate at 345 kV. During the first two years of construction (1985 and 1986), th1:!power supply will come from diesel generators.These generators will remain on site after 1987 as standby power supply.The peak demand during the peak camp population year is estimated at 13 MW for the camp/village and 7 MW for construction requirements totaling 20 MW of peak demand.The distribution system in the camp/village and construct i on area wi lJ .be-4-.16-kV.~.__. Power for the permanent town wi 11 be supp 1ied from the station service system after the power plant is in opera- tion. (i 1)Water The water supply system will provide for potable water and fire protection for the camp/village and selected contrac- tors I work areas.The est imated peak popul at i on to be served will be 4,720 (3,600 in the camp and 1,120 in the vi 11 age). I 1 -·1 1 1 ! 1 1 I ") 1 j I 1 fl !I [) LJ (iii) The principal source of water will be Tsusena Creek, with a back up system of wells drawing on ground water.The water wi 11 be treated in accordance with the Environmental Pro- tection Agency's (EPA)primary and secondary requirements. A system of pumps and storage reservoirs will provide the necessary system capacity.The distribution system will be contai ned wi thi n ut il i dors constructed usi ng plywood box sections integral with the permawalks.The distribution and location of major components of the water supply system are presented in Plate 36.Details of the utilidors are presented in Plate 39. Waste Water A waste water co 11 ect ion and treatment system wi 11 serve the camp/village.One treatment plant will serve the camp/village using gravity flow lines with lift stations wi 11 be used to co 11 ect the waste water from all of the camp and village facilities.The "in-camp"and "in- village"collection systems will be run through the utili- dors so that the collection system will be protected from freezing. The chemical toi lets located around the construction site will be serviced by sewage trucks,which will discharge direct ly into the sewage treatment plant.The sewage treatment system will be a biological system with lagoons designed to meet Al askan and EPA standards.The sewage plant wi 11 di scharge its treated effl uent through a force main to Deadman Creek. All treated sludge will be disposed in a solid waste sanitary landfill. The location of the treatment plant is/shown in Plate 37. The location was selected to avoid unnecessary odors in the camp as the wi nds are from the SE only 4 percent of the time,which is considered minimal. (! L_,l u (e)Contractor's Area The onsite contractors will require office,shop,and general work areas.Partial space required by the contractors for fabrication shops,mai ntenance shops,storage or warehouses,and work areas, will be located between the main camp and the main access road. 12.4 -Diversion (a) General Diversion of the river flow during construction will be accom- I)plished with two 38 foot diameter circular diversion tunnels.The lJ 12-7 tunnels wi 11 be concrete-l ined and located on the right bank of the river.The tunnels are 4,050 feet and 4,140 feet in length. The diversion tunnels are shown in plan and profile on Plate 11. The tunnels are designed to pass a flood with a return frequency of 1:50 years,equivalent to peak inflow of 81,~00 cfs.Routing effects are small and thus,at peak flow the tunnels will dis- charge 80,500 cfs.The maximum water surface elevation upstream of the cofferdam is EL 1536. A rating curve is presented in Figure 12.1. The upper tunnel or Tunnel No.2 will be converted the permanent low level outlet after construction.The local enlarging of the tunnel diameter to 45 feet is to accommodate the low level outlet gates and expansion chamber. (b) Cofferdams The upstream Eofferdam will be a zoned embankment founded on the closure dam (see Pl ate 12).The closure dam wi 11 be constructed to Elevation 1475 based on a low water elevation of 1470, and will consist of coarse material on the upstream side grading to finer materi a 1 on the downstream side.For purposes of feas i bil ity design,it has been assumed that a cut-off through the river bed alluvium to bedrock will be required.A cement/bentonite slurry wall supplemented by downstream pumping has been shown on Pl ate 12.Further investigations at the cofferdam site may indicate that the insitu materi als are such that seepage flows can be controlled solely by pumping without the need for a cutoff. Above Elevation 1475 the cofferdam will be a zoned embankment con- sisting of a central core,fine and coarse upstream and downstream fi lters,and rock and/or gravel supporting shell zones with rip- rap on the upstream face to resist ice action.This cofferdam is shown with a 9 foot freeboard for wave runup and ice protection. The downstream cofferdam will consist of only a closure d~m con- structed from approximate Elevation 1440 to 1472,and consisting arse mater-i-al-on the downstreams-ide g~ading·tofi-nermater­ ial on the upstream side.Control of underseepage similar to that for the upstream cofferdam will be required. (c) Tunnel Portals and Gate Structures A rei nforced concrete gate structure wi 11 be located at the up- stream end of each tunnel,housing two closure gates (see Plate 13) . Each gate wi 11 be 38 foot high by 15 foot wi de separated by a center concrete pi er.The gates wi 11 be of the fi xed roll er ver- tical lift type operated by a wire rope hoist.The gate hoist will be located in an enclosed,heated housing.Provision will be 12-8 1 1 ") ~l I J ] J -1 I 1 ) [1 (1 (J LJ u I'\J u I I rI.J made for heating the gates and gate guides.The gate in Tunnel No.1 will be designed to operate with the reservoir at Elevation 1540, a 50 foot operating head.The gate in Tunnel No.2 will be desi gned to operate with the reservoi r at E1 evat ion 1540, a 120 foot operating head.The gate structures for Tunnels No.1 and 2 will be designated to withstand external (static)heads of 130 and 520 feet,respectively.The downstream portals will be reinforced concrete structures with guides for stoplogs. (d) Final Closure and Reservoir Filling As discussed in Section 9 one of the diversion tunnels will be converted to a low level outlet or emergency release facility during construction. It is estimated one year will be required to construct and install the permanent low level outlet in the existing diversion Tunnel No.1.This will require that the lower Tunnel No.2 pass all flows during this period.The main dam will be at an elevation sufficient to allow a 100 year recurrence interval flood (90,000 cfs)to pass through Tunnel No.2.Th is flow wi 11 result ina reservoir elevation of 1625.During the construction of the low level outlet,the intake operating gate in the upper Tunnel No.1 will be closed.Prior to commencing operation of the low level outlet,coarse trashracks will be installed in the Tunnel No.1 intake structure in the slots provided. Upon commencing operation of the low level outlet,the lower Tun- nel No.2 will be closed with the intake gates and construction of the permanent plug and filling of the reservoir will commence. When the lower Tunnel No.2 is closed the main dam crest will have reached an elevation sufficient to start filling the reservoir and sti 11 have adequate storage avai 1ab1e to store a 250 year recurrence period flood. During the filling operation,the low level outlet will be passing the summer flow of 6,000 cfs and a winter flow of 800 cfs.In case of a large flood occuring during the filling operation,the low level outlet would be opened to its maximum capacity of 30,000 cfs until the reservoir pool was lowered to a safe level. The filling of the reservoir will take 4 years to complete to full reservoir operating elevation of 2185.After 3 years of filling the reservoir will be at Elevation 2150 and will allow operation of the powerplant to commence. The filling sequence is based on the main dam elevation at any time during constructiun and the capability of the reservoir storage to absorb the infl ow vo 1ume from a 250 year recurrence period flood without overtopping the main dam. This information is presented graphically in Figure 12.2. 12-9 12.5 -Emergency Release Facilities The upper diversion Tunnel No.1 will be converted to a permanent low level outlet,or emergency release facility.These facilities will be used to pass the required minimum discharge during the reservoir fill- ing period and will also be used for draining the reservoir in an emergency. The facility will have a capacity of 30,000 cfs at full reservoir pool and wi 11 be capable of drawing the reservoir dam in 14 months.The reservoir drawdown time incorporating the low level outlet is presented graphically in Figure 12.3 for various "start"times during the year. Duri ng operat i on, energy will be di spated by means of two gated con- crete plugs separated by a 340 foot length of tunnel (see Plate 21). Bonnetted type high pressure slide gates will be installed in the tun- nel plugs.The gate arrangement will consist of one upstream emergency gate and one operating gate in the upstream plug and one operating gate in the downstream plug. A 340 foot length of tunnel between plugs will act as an energy dissipating expansion chamber. The 7.5 feet by 11.5 feet gates will be designed to withstand a total static head of about 740 feet,however,they will only be operated with a maximum head of about 600 feet or less. During operation,the operating gate opening in the upstream plug will be equal to the opening of the corresponding gate in the downstream plug. This shou16 effectively balance the head across the gates.The maximum operating head across a gate should not exceed 340 feet. Each gate will have a hydraulic cylinder operator designed to raise or lower gate against a maximum head of 560 feet.Three hydraulic units wi 11 be installed,one for the emergency gates,one for the upstream operating gates and one for the downstream operating gates.Each gate will have an opening/closing time of about 30 minutes. A grease injec- tion system will be installed in each gate to reduce frictional forces when the gates are operated. --------~~~Th-e-desi gn of the gate wlll be such tJlafTheh-ydraUTfC-c:yrrn-aer--as-wel r as the cylinder packing may be inspected and repaired without dewater~ ing the area around the gate.All gates may be locally or remotely operated. To prevent concrete erosion,the conduits in each of the tunnel plugs will be steel lined.An air vent will be installed at the downstream side of the operating gate in the downstream plug. 12.6 -Mai n Dam (a)Comparison with Precedent Structures The main dam at Watana,as currently proposed with a height of 885 feet will be among the highest in the world.The highest embank- 12"'10 1 J I l I ) I ,J j ) l ] ) J 1f l ,1 I l I r i [I [J 11L_J ment dams completed in North America are Mica Creek in British Columbia (794 feet)and Oroville in California (771 feet).Two dams under construction in the USSR will exceed 1,000 feet,but the only dam completed to a height in excess of 800 feet is Sulak in the USSR.A list of embankment (earth and rockfill)dams in excess of 500 feet completed, under construction or proposed is given in Table 12.2. The Watana site is located in a seismically active area and the major design features of 24 embankment dams between 350 and 795 feet in height constructed in seismic areas are summarized in Table 12.3.The characteristics of the Watana design,which will be developed in this section,are included in this table for com- parison.Special site conditions,purpose of development, depth to bedrock,availability of materials,size of reservoir,site location,for example,all have an impact on the design and such factors account for some of the extremes quoted in the table. A further comparison is given in Table 12.4 which includes the principal geometrical parameters of the core and outer slopes for high dams in seismically active areas.Considering these various parameters: -The freeboard ranges between 13 and 62 feet,with seven of the eleven cases quoted being less than the 25 feet proposed for Watana. -The crest width ranges between 33 and 111 feet.Wide crests are usually the result of non-structural requirements,i.e.,a road- way across the dam.Neglecting extreme widths,seven of the ten cases quoted are between 30 and 40 feet compared with the 35- foot width proposed for Watana. -The core wi dth to water depth rati 0 ranges between 0.29 and 0.56,with only one example higher than the 0.50 ratio proposed for Watana. -The upstream slopes range between 2.0:1 and 2.7:1.The Japanese dams tend to have flatter slopes (within the range 2.5 to 2.7), while the North American dams are in the range of 2.0 to 2.6. The Watana slope of 2.4:1 is among the steepest,but is flatter than the next two highest dams,Mica at 2.25:1 and Chicoasen at 2.2:1.However,special features are included in the Watana design,primarily the use of free-draining processed alluvial gravel in the upstream shell,to minimize the effects of earth- quakes on the stability of the upstream face of the dam. -The downstream slopes range between 1.8:1 and 2.7:1.Ten of the 15 cases quoted are equal to or steeper than the 2:1 slope pro- posed for Watana,while only one case is flatter than 2.2:1. 12-11 Complete details of the core materials used in all the dams listed in the accompanying tables are not available in the literature. However a number of 1arge dams have been constructed in Canada using similar glacial deposits as core material.The mean grading curves for these materials including that used for the core of the Mica Creek dam,the existing dam generally comparable to Watana in size,materials,and location,are compared with the mean grading curve for the core material proposed for the Watana dam in Figure 12.4.It is apparent from this figure that the Watana core material is well within the range of materials used successfully for other large dams in North America. In summary,the proposed Watana design is generally conservative with respect to precedent design.However,special features which are di scussed in more detail later in this section are incorpo- rated in the Watana section to provide additional safeguards against seismic loading. (b) Excavation and Foundation Preparation -General The geology of the Watana site is described in Section 9".In summary,the existing conditions at the damsite comprise alluvial deposits in the r i verbed up to 100 feet deep overlyi ng bedrock, while the lower slopes of the valley are covered with talus and there is overburden on the upper slopes.The bedrock is jointed and weathered at the surface with weathering along joints extend- ing to considerable depths.Locally in shear zones and drainage gullies the rock is weathered throughout to depths in excess of 40 feet.The frequency of joi nts and fractures generally decreases with depth but fractured and weathered zones have been identified 1oca lly at depths up to 200 feet.Zones of permafrost occur, particularly in the south abutment. The dam foundation must satisfy the following basic requirements: -The foundation under the core must be stable and capable of supporting the weight of the core under all loading conditions, rnust not erode under the seepage gradi ents whl ch will develop under the .core;.and must not allow excessive seepage···losses under the core. -The foundation under the upstream and downstream shells must be stable and capable of supporting the weight of the dam without excessive movement under all loading conditions. -The core mat erla1 must be prevented from movi ng down into the foundation (e.g.into cracks or joints)and then through the foundation under the transition zone into the downstream shell or beyond. -There must be positive contact between the core and its founda- tion despite the distortions that will occur in the dam because of its own weight and the thrust of the reservoir. 12-12 l I I ,OJ ! 1 I .1 1 l 1 1 j I J J ] \1 I l -Any seepage through the foundation must be controlled and dis- charged so that excessive seepage pressures do not develop in the downstream portion of the core,in the materials beneath the shell,or downstream of the dam. The excavation and foundation preparation necessary to meet these objectives are outlined in the following paragraphs. (c) Excavation (i)River Excavation The properties of the river alluvium are not well defined but it is expected to include sands,gravels,cobbles,and boulders up to 3 feet or more.Such materi als are not suitable as a foundation for the core,primarily because of their relatively high permeability.Similar deposits have been 1eft in place under both the upstream and downstream shells of many of the world's largest dams (see Table 12.4).However,at Watana these granular materials could undergo liquefaction under seismic loading with potentially catastrophic results.Insufficient data is available to demonstrate that there is no possible risk of liquefaction of the alluvium,but further investigations may provide data to support the concept of removing the alluvium only under the central portion of the shells and of incorporat- ing the cofferdams within the shells.However,in view of the high seismicity of the area it is proposed at this time that the river alluvium be removed over the whole founda- tion area. u u (i i)Under Core and Filters The core and filters must be founded on sound rock to en- sure that no material can wash through open joints.This will require excavation of overburden and talus on the slopes and weathered rock in the valley bottom and on the abutments.The tal us thi ckness on the abutments perpendi- cular to the ~lope varies from zero to an estimated 20 feet and weathered rock to 40 feet or more in some areas. Weathered rock is here defined as closely jointed or frac- tured rock with weatheri ng and i nfi 11 i ng of the joi nts. The final foundation will be sound hard rock with only minor weathering,which can be treated by slush grouting and/or consolidation grouting to ensure that core material cannot be washed through joints in the rock. The maximum rock slope along the abutments is determined to some extent by the valley shape. In general,1H:1V slope or flatter is ideally preferred although steeper slopes have been used.At Watana damsite,the natural slopes at 12-13 (iii) (i v) (v) lower elevations are steeper but still generally less than 1H :2V.It is therefore proposed that the overa11 core foundation slopes will be no steeper than 1H:2V below elevation 1800 and 1H:1V above elevation 1800.The cross cut slopes will be 1H:10V. Local shaping of the rock foundation will be necessary to eliminate irregularities which might otherwise induce local cracking of the core due to differential settlements or strains in the core or would impede proper compaction of the core at the foundation contact. The depth of excavation required to remove unsuitable rock will vary considerably over the core contact area.In some areas very little or no excavation may be needed, while in shear or altered zones excav at i on may extend to 50 or 60 feet. Under Upstream and Downstream Shells The she 11 s wi 11 be founded on competent rock.Loose or detached rock or rock r i bs and highly weathered rock wi 11 be removed to expose sound rock.'The actual thickness of loose rock to be excavated will vary across the site,but it is estimated that the average will not exceed 10 feet. Dental Excavation Dental excavation over and above normal excavation will be required in zones of intense shearing or highly irregular surfaces.Such excavations wi 11 normally be backfi lled with concrete. Excavation Methods It is expected that the excavation of the overburden mate- ri al within the dam foundation wi 11 be performed as a multi-level operation using wheeled loaders working with dozers-~-Boulders that--cannot-be--removed---byexcavat ion equi pment wi 11 be blasted.On the steep slopes work i ng areas will be formed with material excavated from the slopes above.These working areas will be progressively lowered removing overburden and weathered rock in one operation. To ensure a safe operation,the excavation of the founda- tion will need to be complete from about Elevation 1800 down to the ri verbed before p1aci ng of fi 11 is commenced. Trimming of the rock surface to acceptable slopes may re- quire blasting and the excavation on the upper slopes will require to be kept sufficiently in advance of grouting and fill placement to avoid interference with these activities by any blasting. } 1 I 1 I I .J .1 ~l ] J 1 J ,] l \ 1 l --1 J- 11I1 I i I.j I )\.-1 i ] 1.1 Dental excavation will be done by small backhoes and final cleanup of the area under the core and filters wi 11 be carried out to a high standard by hand with high pressure air and water jetting prior to grouting.The rock surface under the core and filters should be clean enough for de- tailed geological mapping.Final surface preparation will include slush grouting were necessary to seal exposed open joints. Selected alluvial material from the riverbed and sound rock may be used in the downstream shell of the dam but the re- maining material,generally a mixture of weathered rock and overburden,will be wasted or used for road, cofferdam or temporary facility construction.Spoil areas will gener- ally be below final water level in the reservoir area. (d) Grouting and Pressure Relief A combination of consolidation grouting and cutoff curtain grout- i ng under the core and a downstream pressure re1i ef (drai nage) system are proposed for the Watana site.Those systems wi 11 result in: -Improved stability of the foundation; -Reduct i on in rock mass permeab i l ity and hence seepage through the foundation; Reduct i on in the risk of movement of so i 1 part i c1es through joints in the rock;and - Control and safe d i scharge of any seepage flows through the grout curtain. It is proposed that the curtain grouting and drilling for the pressure relief system are carried out from galleries in the rock foundation in the abutments and beneath the dam.Details of the grouting,pressure relief and galleries are shown on Plate 10. The purpose of grouting is to improve foundation and abutment rock conditions with respect to load bearing and seepage considera- t ions.The need,extent,and detai 1 of grout i ng is dependent on site geological conditions,type and character of rock,reservoir head,and location of specific structures.The diorite bedrock at Watana is competent as far as load carrying capacity is concerned. However,numerous shear zones from a few inches to several feet in width,have been identified in a general NW-SE direction.Occa- sionally,the width of shear zones may be several tens of feet locally.Most of these zones,which are found both in the river channel and in abutments,contain gouge material and under appro- priate conditions,may be susceptible to piping.These features are discussed in more detail in Section 9. 12-15 The permeability tests in boreholes indicate the rock mass perme- ability at the Watana site to be generally in the range from 1 x 10-6 cm/sec to 1 x 10- 4 cm/sec,indicating a maximum seep- age rate through the foundation of the order of 4 cubic feet per second.However,these permeabi lity values may not properly account for shear zones.For example, in Borehole BH-2 on the north abutment,circulation was lost during drilling when the bori ng encountered a shear zone.Al so,because of heavy vegeta- tion,talus cover,and limited access,it is possible that there may be other shear zones not yet identified.A primary grouting program of an exploratory nature will be required under the dam and in the abutments,and the results of this program will form the basis for final grout curtain design. (i)Consolidation Grouting The rock under the core,upstream fi lter,and downstream filter will be consolidation grouted to provide a zone of relatively impermeable rock under the entire contact. Locally,the rock may be sound and free of any discontinui- ties resulting in virtually no grout take;nevertheless, the joints and shear zones are generally steeply dipping and any particular vertical plane is likely to intersect these zones which are estimated to be 15 to 20 feet apart. Consolidation grouting is estimated to require 30 foot deep holes on a 10 foot by 10 foot grid. (ii)Curtain Grouting The design of grout curtains under dams is largely emplrl- cal,though based on data from boreholes.At the Watana site,only Borehole DH-21 extends to a significant depth below the river to Elevation 876,approximately 500 feet below dam foundation level.Sheared and highly fractured zones are indicated at an average of 50 feet intervals to the bottom of the hole and the upper zones should be grouted to reduce seepage losses.The average rock perme- ability decreases significantly around 200 feet depth. For the purposes of this study,a double row grout curtain to a depth of 0.7H, where H is the head of water behind the dam at a particular location,with a maximum depth of grout curtain of 350 feet has been assumed.Grouting will be carried out from a series of underground galleries which will also serve the drainage system pressure relief. It is likely that in some areas the grout take at depth will be very low. Primary holes will be considered as exploratory holes and wi 11 be core dri lled.On the basis of the core and water pressure tests in the exploratory holes,the depth of secondary holes can be decided.The exploratory holes may also identify areas that need addi- tional grouting. l 1 i l \ I ! 1 .\ i 1 I ..J I J .r \ I [) () I 1 i) I !'.__-1 IJ All holes will be water pressure tested in stages and the grout i ng program wi 11 be determi ned usi ng these results. Grouting will be carried out using split spacing with the primary holes at 40 feet spacing.The secondary,tertiary and quaternary holes would bring the final hole spacing to 5 feet if required. Any permafrost in the area to be grouted wi 11 have to be thawed before water pressure test i ng and grout i ng can be done.The greatest depth of permafrost so far recorded was in BH-8 where the ho 1e froze to a depth of 175 feet. Permafrost will be thawed by circulating clean river water through dri 11 holes. The effectiveness of the initial thawing and grouting may be difficult to assess but the permanent galleries under the dam will enable additional grouting to be carried out at any time during and following reservoir filling and subsequent thawing of the foundation and abutments. It is desirable for the grout holes to intersect as many discontinuities as possible.The dip of the main joint sets and shear zones range from 80° to 60°and it is there- fore considered most efficient to drill the boreholes ver- tically or at an angle of 45°. A major shear zone approximately 600 feet wide trending in a NW direction intersects the left edge of the dam and reservoir area and the curtain should extend into the abut- ment to provide a positive cutoff of this zone.The ground surface rises to the south of the dam and the surface ex- pression of any shears to the south of the major zone will be outside the reservoir area and are unlikely to cause appreciable seepage.The extent of the grout curtain through the shear zone wi 11 be determi ned by exp1orat i on from the grout gallery. No major shears have been found on the right abutment where the rock is Qf good quality.The grout curtain will extend from the spillway intake structure 400 feet into the abut- ment with the depth of the curtain set at a maximum of 200 feet. The spillway control structure is located on the dam cen- terline and the grout curtain will extend beneath the structure with drilling and grouting carried out from the gallery formed within the concrete rollway. Drainage will be provided behind the grout curtain with holes drilled from the gallery. 12-17 (iii)Drainage and Pressure Relief Drainage features are included beneath the dam foundation and the abutments to intercept seepage through the grout curtain and to relieve pressure.Common drainage and grout ing wi 11 be constructed with grout i ng from the up- stream side and drai nage from the downstream side of the galleries.The use of galleries is recommended for the following reasons: -Curtain grouting from the gallery can be carried out independently of the construction of the dam. - The grouting can continue longer into the winter than would be possible with surface grouting. - Permanent access is available under the dam for inspec- tion and maintenance.Additional grouting or drainage holes can be drilled after construction of the dam when, far example,the thawing effect of the reservoir may lead to increased seepage requiring remedial grouting. -Higher grout pressures may be used because of the weight of the overlying embankment. -Drainage holes drilled downstream of the grout curtain will be discharged into the gallery enabling flow from individual holes to be monitored.This system will prevent the outlets of the drainage holes from freezing. - The galleries may be used for the installation of instru- mentation and provide access for the repair and replace- ment'of instrumentation. The drai nage/pressure re 1i ef holes wi 11 be dr i 11 ed after all grouting is complete.They will be approximately 3 inches in diameter spaced at about 10 foot centers.Gener- ally the holes will be open but any penetrating fractured orsheal"edrockmaY-·l"equ·i·l"e~·perf0rated·G·as·i·ngt0prevent caving. (iv)Construction Methods -Grouting and Pressure Relief The schedule of work is of particular importance in this phase of the work. The excavation for the galleries must be carried out before consolidation grouting because the grouted rock may be disturbed by tunnel blasting.It will also be preferable to complete excavation of the dam foun- dation in a particular section before excavation of the gallery so that the surface rock profile may be confirmed before tunnelling. ,J I j J .J I 1 .1 J ! I 1 J I '.I [ J I II i] \. I ~1 I i 11II '..-..1 [ I \\J IJ (v) Rock temperatures will be measured in any areas of perma- frost thawed prior to grouting.Grout holes will generally be approximately 1-1/2 inch in diameter.Large hole sizes will be drilled where exploratory cored holes are required or downthe-hole hammer equipment is used. All holes will be washed and pressure tested before grout- i ng.Grout i ng wi 11 be done wi th Type II Port 1and cement with 2 percent addition of bentonite (by weight of cement). The water/cement ratio and grouting pressures will be vari ed accordi ng to the cond it ions encountered.Grouting will be carried out in stages using packers.Some redrill- i ng between st ages wi 11 be requ ired.To allow greatest flexibility of the schedule,most curtain grouting,which will include up-hole grouting,will be done from the galleries.In the inclined galleries special platforms will be required for drilling and grouting equipment. Primary grout holes will be treated as exploratory holes and core drilled,with further core-drilled holes as requi red to test the effect iveness of the grout ing.The grout i ng program wi 11 be modi fi ed accordi ng to the rock conditions encountered as the work proceeds. Gallery Construction The layout of the galleries are shown on Plate 10.It is expected that the majority of the gallery length will not require any support but from available geologic data it is estimated that about 25 percent will require rock bolt and shotcrete support.Steel arches may be requi red at the portals and at tunnel junctions or in highly fractured or sheared zones. A concrete slab will be cast in the tunnel invert to provide an even working surface and to form the drainage channel. Measuri ng wei rs wi 11 be constructed in the drai nage chan- ne 1sin order that the vo 1ume of seepage water may be monitored.The seepage water wi 11 be discharged from the gallery just above tai lwater level into drainage tunnels extending to the downstream toe of the dam and discharging below tailwater level to prevent icing up of the outlet. Inspection access will be provided at the downstream toe of the dam but from a separate portal above water level. Light i ng for inspect i on of the gall eri es and venti 1ation will be required when personnel are in the tunnels.The fresh air intake during the winter must be heated to pre- vent freezing of seepage water within the tunnels.Eleva- tors and emergency stairs will be installed in the vertical shafts and cable hoists will be installed in the inclined tunnels for movement of equipment. 12-19 (e)Main Dam Embankment The main dam will consist of a central compacted core protected by fine and coarse fi lters on the upstream end downstream slopes. The downstream outer shell will consist of rock fill and alluvium gravel;and the upstream outer shell of clean alluvium gravel.A typical cross section is shown on Plate 9. (i)Comparison of Vertical and Inclined Cores The des i gn of the embankment is dependent on the type of core chosen,either a vertical core or an inclined core, and its location,upstream or central in the embankment. The advantages to each type of core are as follows: -Vertical Core Provides better contact with the foundation; Provides slightly more thickness of core for the same quantity of the core material;and Settlement of the core will be independent of the post- construction or seismic displacement settlement of the downstream shell. -Inclined Core Can place 1arge proport i on of downstream shell before placing core material;and Can carry out foundation treatment during placement of shell materi al. The major disadvantages for each type of core are as fol- lows: Vertical Core Placement of core material controls placement of filters and shell materials;and -Inclined Core Excessive post-construction settlement or seismic dis- placement of downstream shell may cause rupture of core; and Location of core may affect the upstream slope by requiring a flatter slope for stability reasons. I J t( 1 .( 11I, 11 I 1 u u 1 1 I-J u ) (i i ) The proposed core material is a combination of glacial out- wash and alluvial/fluvial deposits with a wide grain size distribution.This material might tend to crack rather than deform under tensi le stress and hence could be sus- ceptible to erosion.For a sloping core there is a risk of cracks developing in core constructed of nonplastic materi- al because of lateral settlement or displacement during a seismic event. A central vert ica1 core was therefore selected for the embankment based on a revi ew of precedent structures dis- cussed above and the nature of the proposed impervious materi a1. Earthquake Resistance Design Features Because of the apparent low plasticity of the material to be used in the core and the requirement for an earthquake resistant design,the following design features will be incorporated into the main dam cross section: -The core-foundation contact will be widened near the ends of the embankment to ensure seepage control during normal operating conditions and any seismic event. -Th ick fi lter zones wi 11 be placed upstream and downstream from the core to prevent breachi ng of the core from either post-construction settlement and cracking or from any cracking resulting from a seismic event. -The filters will be designed to flow into and seal any transverse cracks which might develop in the core,as a result of either post-construction settlement or a seis- mic event,thus preventing the formation of an open seep- age path through the core. -The downstream filters will be designed to be capable of handling any abnormal flows which could result from t ransverse-cracki ng of the core from post-construct ion settlement or a seismic event. -The proposed wi dth of the core wi 11 prevent archi ng of the core caused by transfer of load to the shell or fil- ter materials. Compacted processed clean river alluvium gravel of high permeability will be used to construct the upstream outershell to minimize settlement displacement and the build up of pore pressures during a seismic event,and to ensure rapid dissipation of any pressures which may develop. 12-21 Freeboard and Static Settlement If for any reason the crest settles below 2210 feet,more material should be added to maintain the safety margin of 5 feet to allow for seismic settlement. The minimum required crest elevation of the Watana dam,not including static and seismic settlement,was determined for each of the following conditions: l I I 1 1 1 1 l I t I I 1 ·1 J I ) I -! 2185 17 2202 2202 3 2205 Probab 1e Maximum Flood 2185 8 2193 6 3 2202 3 2205 1:10,000 Year Storm 2185 6 2191 6 3 2200 3 2203 1:50 Year Storm Minimum crest elevation Elevation top of core Ro adway th i ckness Water elevation This YS the lowest elevation acceptable for the dam crest and allowances must be made for static settlement of the dam following its completion,settlement on saturation of the upstream shell,and possible settlement because of seismic loading.It has not been possible to perform detailed calculations at this time to determine the likely settlements since little test data is available. Wave runup allowance Dry freeboard allowance For purposes of this feasibility study,it has been assumed that settlement due to seismic loading could be up to 0.5 percent of the height of the dam and the desi gn crest elevation at the center of the dam is,therefore,shown at 2210.An allowance of 2 feet has been made at both abut- ments and hence the design crest elevation rises from 2207 at the abutments to 2210 at the center.Under normal operating conditions the minimum freeboard relative to the maximum operating pool elevation of 2185 will be 22 feet at the abutments and 25 feet at the center of the dam. Normal maximum reservoir e1evat ion Storm surcharge These elevations refer to the maximum section of the dam and are based on a normal operating reservoir level of 2185 feet.The governing minimum crest elevation excluding static and seismic settlement is seen to be 2205 feet at the maximum section and at the abutments. (iii) nI j !J IJ An additional allowance must also be made for post-con- struction settlement of the dam under its own weight and for the effects of saturation on the upstream gravel fill when the reservoir is first filled.This allowance is not shown on the drawings since it is not a permanent require- ment.However,for initial estimating purposes,1 percent of the height of the dam has been allowed.Hence,at the end of construction the dam crest elevation at the center of the dam would be at 2210 feet plus 9, or 2219 feet.The additional height constructed into the dam would be achieved by steepening both slopes above approximately elevation 1850. This 1 percent allowance is conservative when compared with observed settlements of similar structures,and may be revi sed when more data is available. Further margin against overtopping of the main dam is pro- vided by the emergency spillway.Under normal operation this spillway is sealed by a fuse plug.or dam across the entrance channel.This plug is simply a gravel dam with special design of the core and strict control of the shell materials to ensure that it will erode rapidly when over- topped, allowing flood flows to be discharged freely down the emergency spi llway.The location and typical cross section through the fuse plug are shown on Plate 53. (iv)Typical Cross Section The typical cross section of the main dam is shown in Plate 45.The central core slopes are 1H:4V with a top width of 35 feet.The thickness of the core at any section will be s 1ightly more than 0.5 times the head of water at that section.Minimum core-foundation contact will be 50 feet requiring flaring of the cross section at each end of the embankment. The upstream and downstream filter zones increase in thick- ness from 15 or 30 feet near the crest of the dam to a max- imum in excess of 60 feet.They are sized to provide pro- tection against possible piping through transverse cracks in the core that could occur because of settlement or re- sulting from displacement during a seismic event. The shells of the dam will consist of compacted alluvial gravels.To minimize pore pressure generation and ensure rapid dissipation during a seismic event,the saturated upstream shell will consist of compacted clean alluvial gravels processed to remove fines so that not more than 10 percent of the materials is less than 3/8-inch in size. The downstream shell will consist of compacted unprocessed alluvial gravels and rockfill from the excavations for underground work,si nce it wi 11 not be effected by pore pressure generation during a seismic event. 12-23 Protection against wave and ice action on the upstream slope will consist of a 10 foot layer of riprap comprising quarried rock between 18 and 36 inches in size. The typical crest detail is shown in Plate 9.Because of the narrowi ng of the crest dam,the fi lter zones are re- duced in width and the upstream and downstream coarse fil- ters are eliminated.A layer of filter fabric is incorpo- rated to protect the core material from damage from frost penetration and dessication,and to act as a coarse filter where required. (v)Core Material Properties The core material will be obtained from Borrow Site D, located on the right bank of the river,upstream from the dam.The area consists of a series of glacial deposits separated by alluvial and lacustrine deposits.A gener- alized surficial stratigraphic column in Area D,based on all investigations to date including seismic lines and deep drilling,is given in Table 12.5. Complete details of these deposits together with results of laboratory test results are given in the 1980-81 Geotechni- cal Report. ~l -Compact ion: Atterberg Limits:Liquid Limit -7 to 18 Plasticity Index -Non-plastic to 4.2 I 1 1 I r OJ ·l I ) I <No.4 127.6 pcf 10.4 percent <3/4 inch 135.5 pcf 7.5 percent Modififed Proctor Standard Proctor Materia1 Maximum Dry Density Optimum W/C - Shear Strength: -Permeability: 10-6 em/sec (test on <3/4 inch material,2 percent wet of Standard Proctor optimum). It is proposed that materials from the upper outwash,allu- vial and fluvial deposits,designated C,D,E,and F in Table 12.5,are blended to produce core material within the gradation band indicated on Figure 12.5.The actual grading curve for a composite sample used in the testing program is shown in Figure 12.6 and the laboratory test results are summarized as follows: o =37°;c =0 (in terms of effective stresses,on mate- rial 2 percent wet of Modified Proctor optimum). -Pinhole dispersion test:non-dispersive The natural water contents of samples tested ranged from 7 to 21 percent with an average in the range of 10 to 12 percent.Unit G (Table 12.5)includes clay layers with relatively high plasticity and water contents in excess of 40 percent.Such materials cannot be blended with coarser materi a1s to form a homogeneous materi a1,and Un i t Gis not,therefore,considered suitable for inclusion in the core materi a1s. (vi)Excavation,Placement,and Compaction of Core Material The borrow area wi 11 be excavated to a depth of approxi- mately 30 feet working vertical faces.Processing and blending of the material will be done during excavation. Oversize material (greater than 6 inches)will be removed by gri zzl i es or raked out of the fi 11 dur lng spreadi ng. Frozen material will,where possible,be allowed to pro- gressively thaw insitu,with a system of surface ditches to accelerate drainage of the thawed materi al.Where t h i sis not pract i cal for schedul ing reasons or other consi dera- tions,the frozen material will be loosened by ripping or blasting and hauled to a disposal area. It is presently contemplated that the core material will be placed in lifts of 8 to 12 inches compacted thickness with the water content wet of optimum to a maximum of plus 3 percent.The f t nal requi rements for compacti on wi 11 be based on field tests of the actual materials and compaction equi pment. (vii)Fine and Coarse Filter Materials Fine and coarse filter material will be obtained from Bor- row Site E. The required gradations of the fine and coarse filter material to satisfy the following criteria are shown in Figure 12.6:_ Criterion 1:The 15 percent (015)of a filter material must be not more than five times the 85 percent size (085)of a protected soil. Criterion 2:The 15 percent slze (015)of a fi lter mate- rial should be at least five times the 15 percent size (015)of a protected soil. Criterion 3: The 50 percent size (050)of a filter materi- al must be not more than 25 times the 50 percent size (050)of a protected soil. 12-25 Permeability of the fine filter and coarse filter is esti- mated to be greater than 1 em/sec and 10 em/sec,respec- tively.Permeability will be verified by large scale field or laboratory tests. The fine and coarse fi lter materi als have been assumed to have an angle of shearing resistance in terms of effective stresses (0)of 35°for the purposes of these studies. Actual properties will be determined from large scale triaxial tests and/or modeling the gradation for standard triaxial tests for final design. (viii)Excavation,Placement,and Compaction of Filter Material The borrow areas wi 11 be developed utilizing scrapers and draglines.Material will be processed by screening and blending using wet screening methods.Any oversized material will be either used as an aggregate source or in the outershell of the dam. The method of placement and compact i on wi 11 depend on the results of field tests to be done prior to construction using the proposed equipment and materi also It has been assumed that 12-i nch 1i fts wi th four passes of a 1arge vibratory roller will provide the required compaction. (i x) Alluvial Fi 11 Material The alluvial fill will be obtained from Borrow Sites E and I.The upstream shell of the dam will be constructed using processed alluvial gravel and the downstream shell of un- processed alluvial fill material mixed with rock from the various excavations,when available.Any oversized materi- al will be either used in the riprap zones or crushed for concrete aggregate. The required grading limits for the upstream shell are shown in Figure 12.5.The downstream shell material will not r-equire processing. On the basis of the proposed operation,the permeability of the processed alluvial fill in the upstream shell is esti- mated to be greater than 100 em/sec. An angle of shearing resistance in terms of effective stresses of 35°has been assumed for the all uv ia1 fi 11 materi a1. Actual properties will be determined from large scale tri- axial tets and/or modeling the gradation for standard tri- axial tests for final design. 1 l -] I I 1 i ~I ,l I.j ) ,1 ) l I 1 .J I 1 I ~) il ~l IJ .[] [~l L] /1 [J [j [j [1 IJ U U U U (1 (x)Excavation,Placement,and Compaction of Alluvial Fill Materials The alluvial fill material will be obtained from the main dam foundation excavation and from downstream from the dam. Excavation will likely be by scraper operations above the water table and dragline operation below the water table to a max i mum depth of 50 feet.The materi a1 wi 11 have to be processed to remove the undersized and oversize materi a1 for the upstream shell . All material in the shells must be well compacted to mini- mize post-construction settlement and seismic slumping. The method of placement and compaction will be based on the results of test fills but it has been assumed that 24-inch lifts for alluvium fill material with four passes of a 1arge vibratory roller wi 11 provide the required compac- tion. (xi)Rip-Rap Material The rip-rap material (slope protection)comprising exca- vated rock 18 to 36 inches in size,will be obtained from the oversize material from the various borrow areas,Quarry A and any other rock excavations.The rip-rap materi al will be placed on the upstream slopes and in certain areas on the downstream slopes of the dam exposed to wave and ice action. (f)Stability Analysis (i)Methodology Static and dynamic stability analyses were performed to confirm the stability of the upstream and downstream slopes of the Watana dam.The analyses indicated stable slopes under all conditions for a 2.4 horizontal to 1.0 vertical upstream slope and a 2.0 horizontal to 1.0 vertical downstream slope. The static analyses were done using the STABL computer program developed to handle general slope stabi lity prob- lems by adaptation of the Modified Bishop method,and a finite element program for static analysis of earth and rockfill dams (FEADAM)to determine the initial stresses in the dam during normal operating conditions.The detailed results and conclusions from both the static and dynamic analyses are given in Appendix B. The dynamic analyses were done using the QUAD 4 finite ele- ment program which incorporates strain dependent shear modulus and damping parameters.The design earthquake for the dynamic analyses was developed for a Benioff zone event. 12-27 The assessment of the stat ic and sei smi c response of the Watana dam for the stat ic and postul ated sei smi c loadi ng involved the following: -Finite Element Model The finite element model consisted of 20 layers of ele- ments with 546 nodes and 520 elements.Different soil parameters as described in the following sections were chosen for the core,transition material,and the shell material.The transition material comprised the fine and coarse filter lones. -Static Analysis The slope stability analyses were done using the STABL computer program for the general solution of slope sta- bility problems by a two-dimensional limiting equilibrium method. The calculation of the factor of safety against instability of a slope was performed by an adaptation of the Modified Bishop method of slices which aJlows the analysis of trial failure surfaces other than those of a circular slope.Soil properties used in the analysis are given in Table 12.6. The calculated factors of safety are in the range of 1.7 to 2.2 indicating no general slope stability problems under static loading. Further analysis,using the finite element program for static analyses of earth and rockfi 11 dams (FEADAM), determined the initial stresses in the dam during normal operating conditions.The program calculates the stresses,strains,and displacements in the dam simu- lating the actual sequence of construction operations. Two analyses were performed to show the effects of relatively soft versus stiff core material. s The dynamic analysis was done using the QUAD 4 computer program. The initial values of shear modulus and damping ratio used in the analyses were derived from typical values available in Banerjee et al (1979) and are as follows: Damping Shear ZONE K2 Type Curve Core Materi a 1 -Soft 90 sand -St iff 120 sand 12-28 I.) 'I I 1 -Piezometers Instrumentation sand sand 150 180 Transition Material Shell Material Taut-wire arrangements. Cross-arm devices . .Inclinometers. Strain meters. .Hydraulic-settlement devices of various kinds. Various versions of the taut-wire devices which have been developed to measure internal settlement . 12-29 Stress meters. Surface monuments and alignment markers. Seismographic records and seismoscopes. Flow meters to record d i scharge from drai nage and pressure relief system. The design earthquake time history was developed by Wood- ward-Clyde Consultants and is shown in Figure 12.8.The significant features are as follows: Piezometers are used to measure static pressure of fluid in the pore spaces of soil,rockfill and in the rock foundation. -Magnitude 8.5 Richter; - Location 25 miles (40 km)from the site (Benioff Zone); -Maximum acceleration of 0.55g; - Duration of strong motion - 45 seconds;and -Significant number of cycles - 25. Cross-arm settlement devices as developed by the USBR. -Internal Horizontal Movement Devices - Other Measuring Devices -Internal Vertical Movement Devices Instrumentation will be installed to provide monitoring during construction as well as during operation.Instruments for measur- ing internal vertical and horizontal displacements,stresses and strains,and total and fluid pressures,as well as surface monu- ments and markers will be installed.The quantity and location will be decided during final design.Typical instrumentation is as follows: (g) (h) Conclus1ons The stat1c stabil1ty of the embankment was assessed by comparing the 1nduced stresses at any locat 1on with the shear strength avai lable within the materi al.The results of the analyses for both the soft and st1ff core cases indicate no failure zones and a more than adequate st at lc factor of safety for all cases con- s i dered.Vert1cal and conf1ning stresses from the analyses show the expected results cons1dering the reservo1r load and the var1ation 1n materials within the dam. The se1sm1c stab1l1ty of the embankment was assessed by comparing the Induced dynamic stresses at any location with the available st at i c stresses.The results of the analyses indicate limited zones of shear stress exceedance adjacent to the toe of the up- stream shell,near the upstream crest,and on the surface of the downstream shell.However,these are 1oca 11 zed zones not extend- ing 1nto the embankment,and overall stability will not be jeopar- dized.The results of the analyses are presented in Appendix B. 12.7 -Rel1ct Channel Treatment (a)Site Cond1t1ons Earl1er studies 1dent1f1ed a buried channel runn1ng from the Su- sitna River gorge immediately upstream from the proposed damsite to Tsusena Creek, a d1stance of about 1.5 m1les.A boring by the Corps of Engineers penetrated 454 feet of glacial deposits over- lying bedrock wh1ch was encountered at El evat i.on 1775, while the surface elevation of the lowest saddle 1S approximately 2205. Additional 1nvestigations dur1ng the current study further delin- eated the channel,and full details are given in the 1980-81 Geo- technical Report.The channel represents a potent i al source of leakage from the Watana reservoir.Along the buried channel thal- weg,the highest bedrock surface 1S some 450 feet below reservoir level,while along the shortest leakage path between the reservoir and Tsusena Creek the highest rock surface is some 250 feet below reservoir level.The maximum hydraulic gradient along the buried charirieTffom the·e~d-g-e (Jfp-oolto-TSTJSena-~ereekisapprox+mately9 percent,while between existing riverbed levels it is about 6 per- cent.There are surface lakes with1n the channel area,and while some drill holes encountered artesian water,others penetrated highly permeable zones resulting in complete loss of drilling fluid.Zones of permafrost have also been identified throughout the channel area. Although the glacial h1story of the area 1S not clearly under- stood,a sequence of events has been postul ated 1n the 1980-81 Geotechnical Report,based primarily on the invest1gation of the Borrow Site D adjacent to the buried channel.The generalized surfic1al strat1graphic column is given in Table 12.5. 12-30 ], 1 1 1 ] ] J J i ] ] ] 1 J ] 1 ] , 1 I -fl r-l II [~J [1 (1 [1 [J [~] [J lJ (~J lJ lJ LJ lJ lJ Of particular relevance to the buried channel problems are the alluvium at the base of the channel,encountered in one deep bore- hole between 292 feet and bedrock at 454 feet below ground,and the unconsolidated outwash,alluvial and fluvial deposits.The deep alluvium offers a potential leakage path,its high permeabil- ity being indicated by loss of drilling fluid,while the unconsol- i dated,primari ly sandy deposits may be subject to 1i quefact ion following saturation. (b)Potential Problems The major potential problems associated with the buried channel are leakage,both surface and subsurface flows;piping at down- stream outlets to Tsusena Creek;the impact of permafrost and the long-term effects as heat from the reservoir thaws the ground through the channel area;and instability of soil slopes on sat- uration,thawing,or seismic loading leading to a breach of the rim of the reservoir. (i)Surface Flows During the study of alternative layouts for Watana,the maximum operating reservoir level was higher than the critical ground elevation of 2205 in the buried channel area.These layouts,therefore,incorporated a saddle dam about 40 feet high and 2,500 feet long across the critical section of the channel.The foundation conditions for such a saddle dam are not well defined at this time but because of the variable nature of the glacial deposits,the effects of permafrost and potential for liquifaction within the foundation were addressed.It was concluded,however,that in any event there was a strong possibility that settle- ment of such a dam could not be adequately controlled and there would be a real risk of transverse cracking occurring through the dam.With the reservoir level above ground surface,any such cracking could lead to 8urface flows and subsequent channeling through the unconsolidated deposits. (ii)Subsurface Leakage No field permeability tests have been conducted,but it is anticipated that the total subsurface leakage will be rela- tively small and economically insignificant.For example, if the average permeability of all material in the channel were 10- 2 cm/sec,the total leakage flow would be less than 100 cubic feet per second.By inspection of the grad- ing curves,the actual permeability is certainly less than 10-2 cm/sec,except possibly in the channel bed alluvi- um,Unit K,Table 12.5,and a more realistic leakage flow would be about 10 cubic feet per second.The capital value of this leakage,in terms of lost energy,is about $4 12-31 million.However,any leakage may be concentrated in the discharge zone in Tsusena Creek,and there is potential for piping which could lead to large-scale erosion cutting back to the high ground forming the rim of the reservoir. (iii)Permafrost Thawing of permafrost will result in higher seepage rates and possibly settlement of the surface as excess water drains from the thawed soils. (iv)Liquefaction Filling the reservoir will lead to the saturation of some of the glacial deposits within the buried channel area, including the upper slopes of the Susitna River valley,and produce the potent i al for l t quefact i on of these deposits under seismic loading.Under extreme circumstances,lique- faction could lead to mass movements of so i ls into the reservoi r and breach of the reservoi r r i min the area of the freeboard dike. For this situation to occur,it would require a large,con- tinuous deposit of loose,saturated,granular material with sufficient ground surface slope so that the soil above the liquefied zone would move under its own weight.Although such a scenario is considered most unlikely,the investiga- tions to date are not sufficiently detailed to preclude the possibility.In view of the potentially catastrophic failure that would result from a breach of the reservoir rim,further investigations must be carried out prior to construct i on to confi rm the strat i graphy and provi de ade- quate data to properly assess the need for and desi gn of remedial treatment. (c)Remedial Measures Since the stability of the section of the buried channel forming the rim-aT theWatana reservoir i sessent i al .for the feasibility of the Watana development as outlined in this report,practical solutions to all possible scenarios,including extreme combina- tions of the problems outlined above, must be identified. (i)Surface Flows To eliminate the potential problems associated with settle- ment and breach of a saddle dam allowing surface flows through the buried channel area,the maximum operating level of the reservoir has been lowered to 2185 feet leaving a width of at least 1,500 feet of "dr y"ground at the saddle above this elevation.A freeboard dike with a crest elevation of 2210 is required to provide protection 12-32 } ] } .] ] 1 } .J J J J .J ] 1 J ,J ] ) against extreme reservoir levels under probable maximum flood conditions.The shortest distance between the toe of the dike and the edge of the Elevation 2185 reservoir pool is at least 450 feet,and under PMF flood,the water level w111 just reach the toe of the d1ke. (ii)Subsurface Flows Progressive piping and erosion in the area of discharge into the Tsusena Creek will be controlled by the placement of properly graded granular materials to form a f i l t er blanket over the zones of emergence.Field i nves t lqat l on will be carried out to define critical areas,and only such areas will be treated.Continuous monitoring of the outlet area will be necessary,since it may take many years for equi 1ibri um with respect to permafrost to become est ab- lished in the buried channel area. If the permeab 11 i ty of the base all uv i um is found to be excessive,grouting of the upstream inlet zone could be carried out to reduce the total leakage. (1i 1)Permafrost (J [J U U U (J (J u u Thawing of permafrost will occur that may have an impact on subsurface flows and ground settlement.No specific reme- dial work 1s necessary,but flows,ground water elevation, and ground surface elevation in the buried channel area must be monitored and any necessary maintenance work carried out to maintain freeboard and control seepage dis- charge. (iv)Liquefaction To guarantee the integrity of the reservoir rim through the channel area requires that either: - There is no potential for a liquefact10n slide into the reservoir which could cut back and breach the r1m,or -If there is such potent1al,there is a sufficient volume of stable mater1al at the crit1cal section that even if the upstream materials were to slide into the reservoir, the fai lure zone could not cut back to the reservoir rim. Any remedial treatment required will depend on the location and extent of cr1t1cal zones and could range from stabili- zation by comp act i on (vibroflotation)or grout1ng tech- n i ques,either cement or chemical grouting,or in the 11mit,removal of material. 12-33 The stratigraphic column 1ndicates that the two lower till deposits I and J have been overconsolidated by glaciat10n, and it is unlikely that these deposits could liquefy under any circumstances.The overlying Unit H is a medium fine sand wi th silt and is probably the most susceptible to l i quet act i on of all the materials sampled. This unit has been 1dentif1ed up to 40 feet thick in places,with the top of the layer est1mated to be about 100 feet below ground surface at the deepest point,as shown in the 1980-81 Geo- technical Report.All materials above th t s unit are nor- mally consolidated water-lain till,outwash,alluvium,and fluv1al deposits which could include zones of cr i t i cal materials. There are 1nsuffic1ent data ava1lable to 1dent1fy the full extent of such cr t t i cal materials;hence,It i s not poss- i ble to precisely deflne the remed1al work necessary at this time.Available alternative methods include: -Densification Layers within about 100 feet of the surface could be com- pacted by vibroflotation techniques to eliminate the risk of liquefact10n and provide a stable zone. -Stab111zation Critical layers at any depth could be grouted,either with cement for fine gravels and coarse sands or by chem- ical grouting for f1ne sands and silts. -Removal This could range from the replacement of cr1tical materi- al near the valley slopes with high-quality,processed material,which would stabilize the toe of a potential slide and so prevent the 1nitiation of failure that might otherw1 se cut back and cause major f cl.1lUres,to the ex- ··caljation~·blendtn-g;'-and--rep-l-acement-of-+arge volumes of material to provide a stable zone. The ultimate treatment w1ll be based on an engineering and cost analys1s study of the appropr1ate alternatives during the design phase of the project when the site conditions have been more closely defined.However,to confirm the technical and overall financ1al feasibility of the project at this t1me,it is necessary to cons1der a solut10n to the worst conditions deemed poss1ble. On the basis of ava1lable data,such conditions are: 1 J -) 1 'J j .) J J J J J J '-- ) J J ) ), I (I n (J (] I,J - That the alluvium Unit H encountered between elevations 2100 and 2140 in drill hole DR22 is a homogeneous loose, silty,fine sand. -Th at it is of 1arge areal extent and cont i nuous from beyond the saddle out to the Susitna valley slopes. - That is of such thickness that a failure plane could be contained fully within its boundaries. With these conditions,liquefaction of the unit under seismic loading following saturation from the reservoir could result in the overlying material sliding on the liquefied zone into the reservoir. Catastrophic failure would develop if the back scarp of the failure surface through the overlying materials broke ground surface on the downstream-side of the saddle below reservoir water level. The most positive solution to such a situation would be the replacement of the critical zone with material that would not liquefy.This would involve,in effect,the rearrange- ment of the in-place materials to create an underground dam sect i on constructed of se 1ected materi a 1s founded on the dense till layer beneath the critical alluvium.Such an operation would require the excavation of a trench up to 135 feet deep with a surface width up to 1,000 feet. Selected materials would be compacted to form a central stable zone while surplus and unsuitable materials would be placed on both sides of this central "dam"to complete backfilling to ground surface.The central zone would,be designed to remain stable in the event that all material upstream did slide into the reservoir.Preliminary esti- mates indicate that such a structure would need to be about 5,000 feet long, with a total cut volume of about 13 million cubic yards,of which 4-112 million cubic yards could be used in the compacted center zone.The cost of such work is est imated to be about $100 mi 11 ion.The need of such expenditure is considered to be most unlikely and is deemed to be covered by the overall project contingency cost. (d)Further Investigations Additional site investigations are necessary in the relict channel area to more closely define the following: -Confirm and/or refine the stratigraphy throughout the area. -Thickness,extent,density,continuity,and permeability of the alluvium identified in DR22 immediately above bedrock.The 12-35 investigations should include pumping tests and possibly dye in- jection tests to check the continuity of this unit along the buried channel,since this is deemed to have the greatest potential for leakage. -Dens ity of the lowest till 1ayers I and J wh i ch have been sub- jected to overconsolidation by glaciation,to confirm that they would not liquefy under earthquake loading. -Density,gradation,extent,and continuity of the sandy silt alluvium,Unit H. - Extent of any other units which may be subject to liquefaction. -Conditions in the outlet area of the relict channel into Tsusena Creek. -Ground water regime throughout the channel area with particular reference to the source of artesian or confined aquifers and the drainage outlets from such aquifers. 12.8 -Outlet Facilities The primary function of the outlet facilities will be to discharge floods with recurrence frequencies of up to once in 50 years after they have been routed through the Watana reservoir.Downstream erosion will be minimal and the dissolved nitrogen content in the discharges will be restricted as much as possible to avoid harmful effects on the down- stream fish population.A secondary function of outlet facilities will be to provide the capability to rapidly draw down the reservoir during an extreme emergency situation. The facilities will be located on the right abutment, as shown on Plate 18,and will consist of an intake structure,pressure tunnel,and an energy dissipation and control structure housing six fixed-cone valves which will discharge into the river 100 feet below. (a)Approach Channel and Intake The approach channel to the outlet facilities will be shared with the power intake.The channel will be 400 feet wide and excavated to a depth of approximately 150 feet in the bedrock with an invert elevation of 2010.The intake structure will be founded deep in the rock at the end of the channel.The single intake passage will have an invert elevation of 2012.It will be divided upstream by a central concrete pier whi ch wi 11 support steel trashracks located on the face of the structure,spanni ng the openings to the water passage.The racks wi 11 be mounted in vertical guides and can be raised and lowered for cleaning and maintenance by a mobile gantry crane monitored at deck level. 12 ] ) ) -:1 1 1 1 l J r } J 1 ) ) ~1 ) t ) r 1 IJ I I J i l\J [J (J Downstream of the racks,located between the pier and each of the sidewalls,will be two fixed wheel gates operated by a mechanical hoist mounted above the deck of the structure.The purpose of the fixed wheel gates will not be to control flows through the outlet, but to isolate the downstream tunnel to allow dewatering for main- tenance of the tunnel or ring gates located in the discharge structure.Stoplog guides will be provided just upstream of the two fixed wheel gates to permit dewatering of the structure and access to the gate guides for maintenance. (b)Intake Gates and Trashracks The gates will be of the fixed wheel vertical lift type with down- stream skinplate and seals.The nominal gate size will be 18 feet wide by 30 feet high.Each gate will be operated by a single drum wire rope hoist mounted in an enclo~ed tower structure at the top of the intake.The height of the tower structure will permit raising the gates clear of the intake concrete for inspection and maintenance. The gates will be capable of being lowered either from a remote control room or locally from the hoist area.Gate raising will be from the hoist area only. The trashracks will have a bar spacing of about 7 inches,and will be designed for a maximum differential head of 40 feet.The maxi- mum net velocity through the racks wi 11 be about 6 ft/s.Provi- sion will be made for monitoring the head loss across the trash- racks. (c)Shaft and Tunnel Discharges will be conveyed from the upstream gate structure by a concrete-lined tunnel terminating in a steel liner and manifold. The manifold will branch into six steel-lined tunnels which will run through the main spillway flip bucket structure to the fixed cone valves mounted on the downstream face. The water passages wi 11 be 28 feet in diameter up to the steel manifold.The upstream concrete-l ined portion wi 11 run a short distance horizontally from the back of the intake structure before dipping at an angle of 55° to a lower level tunnel of similar cross section.This angle of 55°is considered the flattest slope at which the tunnel can be "self-mucking"during construction. The lower tunnel will run at a gradient of 1:10 to the point where the overlying rock is insufficient to withstand the large hydro- static pressure which will occur within the tunnel.Downstream of this point the tunnel will be steel lined.The steel liner will be 26 feet in diameter and surrounded by mass concrete filling the space between the liner and the surrounding rock.The area be- tween the outs ide face of the 1i ner and the concrete wi 11 be grouted to fill all voids and reduce external ground water pres- sure build up. 12-37 The majority of the tunnel length is on bearing 065 0 •This align- ment is intersected by Joint set II at acute angle of about 10 0 • This may cause some greater than normal overbreak but conventional support measures will be sufficient for stability. At the upstream end,the tunnel parallels the trend of the main shear and fracture zones and is intersected by a mi nor fract ion and shear zone some 80 feet wide. The tunnelling over this length is expected to be difficult.Extensive rock bolting and shotcrete or steel sets will be required. For hydraulic consideration the tunnel is required to be concrete 1 ined. A rock pillar width of 1.0 times excavated diameter is required. With this spacing requirement considerable control and care will have to be exercised in this section of the tunnel.Steel set support will be required through this section and the manifold tunnel. The portal is located in a shear and fracture zone.Extensive rock support will be required both on the portal face and within the tunnel. Steel arch support wi 11 probably be required in the first 50-100 feet of tunnel,depending on the extent of the shear and fracture zone. The excavation will probably be carried out by driving a pilot tunnel first and enlarg ng to full size. Upstream from the discharge structure the liner will terminate in a steel manifold with six parallel 8 foot diameter steel-lined branches.These wi 11 cont inue through the back face of the di s- charge structure,and terminate in fixed cone discharge valves mounted at the downstream end of the structure. (d)Discharge Structure The concrete di scharge structure is shown on Pl ate 17.It wi 11 form the fl iP bucket for the mai n spi llway and wi 11 house the fixed cone valves and individual upstream ring follower gates. The valves will be set with a centerline elevation of 1560 and will discharge into the river approximately 105 feet below. Openings for the valves will be formed in the concrete and the valves will be recessed within these openings sufficiently to allow enclosure for ease of maintenance and heating of the move- able valve sleeves.An access gallery upstream from the valves will run the length of the discharge structure,and will terminate in the access tunnel and access road on either side of the struc- ture.Housing for the ring follower gates will be located up- ) 1 J --J-' .J 1 1 ) r 'j ) 1 ) ) ,) I J 'j [) 11 I ) (e) stream from the fixed cone gate chambers.The ring follower gates will operate in the steel liners and will serve to isolate the discharge valves.A common monorail hoist will be located above each valve and gate assembly to provide for their removal and transportation to the access gallery. Fixed Cone Discharge Valves Eight 78-inch diameter fixed-cone discharge valves will be in- stalled at the downstream end of the outlet manifold,qenerally as shown on Plate 17.The valves were selected to be within current experience,considering the valve size and operating head (see Figure 12.20).The fixed-cone valves are a further development of Howell Bunger valves with the cone support vanes of the fixed-cone valve extending further upstream and are more streaml ined.The valves have a slightly higher discharge coefficient than Howell Bunger valves and are less prone to vibration.During final design,careful consideration must be given to prevent vibration. Considerable research will be carried out concerning experience and design of existing installations,and model tests will be necessary to help ensure satisfactory valve operation. The valves will be operated either by two hydraulic cylinder operators or by a screw stem hoist.For preliminary design purposes,hydraul ic operators have been assumed.The valves may be operated either locally or remotely. In sizing the valves it has been assumed that the valve gate openi ng wi 11 be restri cted to 80 percent full stroke to reduce vibration. u ,\ (J I 1LJ lJ (f)Ring Follower Gates A ring follower gate will be installed upstream of each valve and will be used: -To permit inspection and maintenance of the fixed-cone valves; -To relieve the hydrostatic pressure from the fixed-cone valves when they are in the closed position;and -To close against fl owi ng water in the event of mal funct ion or failure of the valves. The ring follower gates will have a nominal diameter of 90 inches and will be designed to withstand a total static head of about 630 feet.Existing large diameter high head ring follower gates are summarized in Table 12.6. The ring follower gates will be designed to be lowered under flow- ing water conditions and raised under balanced head conditions.A grease injection system will be installed in each gate to reduce fri ct iona 1 forces when the gates are operated.The gates wi 11 be operated by hydraulic cylinders from either a local or remote location. 12-39 (g)Discharge Area Immediately downstream of the discharge structure,the rock will be cut at a slope of 2H:3V to a lower elevation of 1510.This face will be heavily reinforced by rock bolts and protected by a concrete slab anchored to the face.The lower level will consist of un1ined rock extendi ng to the ri ver.Because of the high degree of di spers ion of the disch arges and the infrequency of operation of the valves,it is anticipated that erosion will not be a problem. 12.9 -Main Spillway (a)General The main spillway will provide discharge capability for floods .exceeding the capacity of the outlet facilities.The combined total capacity of the main spillway and outlet facilities will be sufficient to pass routed floods with recurrence frequencies up to once in 10,000 years. The main spillway,shown on Plate 14,is located on the right abutment and consists of an approach channel,a gated ogee control structure,a concrete-lined chute,and a flip bucket. The spillway is designed to discharge flows of up to 115,000 cfs with a corresponding reservoir e levat i'on of 2192. The total head dissipated by the spillway is approximately 730 feet making it among the wor lcs highest.A major concern with large spillways is the total energy to be dissipated during discharge.It is to be noted that there are a number of spi llways wi th energi es of discharge several times higher than that at Watana. A comparable spillway in North America is that at the Mica Project on the Columbia River in British Columbia. This spillway was con- structed in 1974 and has operated successfully at flows approach- ing its design flow with only minor damage occurring in the upper part of the chute.A comparison of data for the two schemes is Tota 1 Head Reservoir to Energy Di scharge .to Tai lwater Dissipated (cfs)(ft )(MW) Watana 115,000 730 6,700 Mica 150,000 600 7,300 (b) Approach Channel and Control Structure The approach channel is excavated to a depth of approximately 100 feet into rock.It is adjacent to the power facilities approach channel,and in order to minimize its length,it is integrated with the power channel. 1 1 J --J j l 1 :j J I l 1 ) ) ~l I i 'I ) ) I ,I I.J (J I 1 il II,J I J The control structure is a mass ive concrete structure set at the end of the approach channe 1.Flows are contro 11 ed by three 47 feet high by 36 feet wide vertical lift gates.As shown on Plate 15, each gate is contained within a separate unit consisting of an ogee overflow weir,pier,and a partially precast integral roadway deck.The units are of individual amonolithic structures separated by construction joints. Model tests will be necessary during the final design stage to dotermine final geometry and dimensions of the control structure. The structure will be located adjacent to the right dam abutment in 1ine wi th the dam crest.The mai n access route wi 11 pass across the spillway deck and along the crest. The approach channel is located to the south side of the intake structure and intersects the intake channel upstream of the intake structure.The rock cuts up to 100 feet in height should be excavated to 1H:4V slopes.Only localized rock bolting and shot- crete support will be required. The structure is to be founded on sound rock. Since the excava- tion is likely to extend well into sound rock,consolidation grout i ng is not antici pated to be requi red.However shear or fracture zones passing through the foundation may require dental excavation,concrete backfill and/or consolidation grouting.The slope of the contact surface between the dam core and the spillway control structure is required to be 1H:3V to ensure sufficient contact stress and therefore prevent leakage. The mai n dam grout curtai nand drai nage system wi 11 pass beneath the structure.Access to the grouting tunnels will be via a shaft within the structure and a gallery running through the ogee weir. (c)Spillway Gates and Stoplogs The three spillway gates will be of the fixed wheel vertical lift type operated by double drum wire rope hoists located in an en- closed bridge structure.The gate size has been selected as 36 feet wide by 47 feet high,including freeboard allowance.The gates will have upstream skinplates.The seals will be totally enclosed to permit gate heating in the event that winter operation is necessary.Provision will also be made for heating the gate guides. The height of the tower and bridge structure will permit raising of the gates above the top of the spillway pier for gate inspec- tion and maintenance. An emergency gasoline engine will be provided to enable the gates to be raised in the event of loss of power to the spillway gate hoist motors. 12-41 Stoplog guides will be installed upstream of each of the three spillway gates.One set of stoplogs will be provided to permit servicing of the gate guides. (d)Spillway Chute The control structure will discharge down an inclined chute that tapers slightly until a width of 80 feet is reached. A constant width of 80 feet is maintained over the remainder of its length. Convergence of the chute walls wi 11 be gradual to minimize any shock wave development. The maximum depth of overburden in the area of the spillway is generally 20 feet.The depth of overburden in boreholes BH-l,3, 4 and DH 10 and 11 average 12 feet.Seismic line 80-2 indicates an overburden thickness of 15 to 20 feet. Weathering of the rock surface is generally only slight to moder- ate and poor rock qualities and RQD values less than 50 percent exist up to 15 feet below top of rock.However towards the lower end of the spillway chute,surface features indicate minor shears and fracture zone and the depth to sound rock is expected to be up to 50 feet or more in places. The spillway foundation is intersected by several shear and frac- ture zones up to 60 feet wide.Joint sets I, II and III mapped in the spillway area are all vertical or near vertical. The structure wi 11 requi re to be founded on sound rock. Areas where shear and fracture zones extend for considerable depths may require dental excavation and backfilling with concrete. The major joint sets in the area of the spillway are generally vertical or steeply dipping.Stability of the rock slopes on the south side of the excavation are not generally a problem.How- ever,towards the downstream end of the chute the rock condition on the north side deteriorates towards the "Ff nqerbust er-",An overall excavation slope for this area of IH:4Vhas been adopted. _Theexcavated filc::es'\:Q be~ubseguent ly~g_\l~g(:LwU1L cOY1c::ret~c::i11J be excavated vertical or near vertical.Joint set II parallels the excavation and joints sets I and III could give rise to some wedge instability.An allowance has accordingly been made for rockbolt support over 24 percent of the face area. The chute section will be rectangular in cross section,excavated in rock,and 1i ned wi th concrete anchored to the rock.Adequate underdrainage of the spillway chute is essential for stability of the structure.Uplift pressure will develop from reservoir seepage under the control structure,from ground water and seepage from the high velocity flows within the spillway itself.Seepage from the spillway flow will generate high pressure within the rock through cracks in the concrete and wi th sudden c 1osi ng of the spillway gates,residual unbalanced water pressures under the slab wi 11 result. ') ! I "\ 1 I ~l 1 J 1 1 1 I ) ) I ! I I I] J !J An extensive drainage system is therefore proposed.The dam grout curtain and drainage system is continued under the spillway control structure utilizing a gallery through the mass concrete rollway.A system of box drains on the rock surface under the concrete slab in a herringbone pattern at 20 feet spacing is proposed for the entire length of the spillway.To avoid blockage of the system by freezing of the surface drains a drainage gallery is proposed at 30 feet depth into rock over the entire length of the spillway.Drain holes from the surface drains will intersect the gallery. Since complete drainage of the underside of the slab cannot be assumed,some freezing or blockage of the drains could occur at some time.Additional resistance to uplift pressure must there- fore be provided by rock anchors.To ensure adequate foundation quality for anchorage,consolidation grouting is proposed to a depth of 20 feet.This grouted zone will also restrict seepage below the spillway and improve the quality of the flip bucket rock foundation. Drainage holes drilled into the base of the high rock cuts will ensure increased stability of excavations. fl (e) Provision will be made at four locations along the chute the flows and prevent cavitation of the concrete floor. will be attained by means of a small inclined step with drawn from a transverse lower gallery. Flip Bucket to aerate Aeration air being lJ The funct ion of the fl iP bucket wi 11 be to di rect the spi llway flow clear of the spillway and well downstream into the river below.The jet issuing from the flip bucket will be partly dis- persed during its passage through the air with a corresponding loss of energy.The remainder of the energy will be dissipated on impact in the plunge pool. A mass concrete block wi 11 form the fl ip bucket for the main spillway.Final geometry of the bucket,as well as dynamic pres- sures on the floor and walls of the structure,will be determined by model studies.Although the structure shown on Plate 17 shows a simple,cylindrical type of bucket,it it is foreseen that a more effective,dispersive type bucket will be developed during model tests. 12.10 - Emergency Spillway The emergency spillway will be located on the right .side of the river beyond the mai n spi llway and power intake structure (see Pl ate 20). The emergency spillway will consist of a long straight chute cut in the rock and leading in the direction of Tsusena Creek.An erodible fuse 12-43 plug,consisting of fine gravel materials,will be constructed at the upstream end. The plug will be designed to wash away when overtopped, releasing flows of up to 160,000 cfs in excess of the combined main spillway and outlet facility capacities,thus preventing overtopping of the mai n dam. (a) Fuse Plug and Approach Channel The approach channel to the fuse plug will be excavated in rock and will have a width of 310 feet and invert elevation of 2170. The mai n access road to the dam and powerhouse wi 11 cross the channel by means of a bridge.The fuse plug wi 11 close the approach channel,and will have a maximum height of 31.5 feet with a crest elevation of 2201.5 feet.The plug will have a core up to 10 feet wide,steeply inclined in the downstream direction,with fine filter zones upstream and downstream.It will be supported on a downstream erodible shell of crushed stone or gravel up to 1.5 inches in diameter.The crest of the plug will be 10 feet wide and wi 11 be traversed by a 1.5 foot deep pi lot channel.The principle of the plug is based on erosion progressing rapidly downward and laterally from the pilot channel as soon as it is overtopped. The channel section at the fuse plug is considered as a broad crested weir.A gated control structure was considered as an alternative to the fuse plug,but this would give higher construc- tion and maintenance costs and would not provide an discharge response like plug. Water'velocities in the approach channel are expected to be in the order of 30 ft/s but will occur very infrequently,if ever,during the life of the project. Localized rock bolting only will be required and rock slopes of IH:4V will be used. (b)Discharge Channel .Ihe rock channe 1 downstreamoft.befu.s.e.pJ.u9_wJJJ..JJ.ar.r.o.w__t,o..200 feet and continue in a straight line over a distance of 5,000 feet at gradi ent s of 1. 5 percent to 5 percent in the direct ion of Tsusena Creek.The flow will discharge into a small valley on the south side of and separated from relict channel.It is estimated that flows down the channel will continue for a period of 20 days under probable maximum flood conditions.Some erosion in the channel will occur,but the integrity of the main darn will be maintained.The reservoir will be drawn down to Elevation 2170. Reconstruction of the fuse plug will be required prior to refill- ing of the reservoir. 12=44 1 1 ,) I 1 1 'j -j 1 ) 1 I .J I I I ,j t ! 'j 11I I \I I} !J LJ i I i ..J \ 1II The spillway channel is straight,bearing 115°.The channel will be generally unlined and the base of the channel will be excavated into rock to provide a minimum side wall height of 50 feet in rock.At the downstream end of the channel the height of this rock wall decreases to zero. The depth of overburden has been determined mainly by seismic in- vestigation and surface expressions and is expected to be 30 -40 feet deep.The depth increases towards the downstream end of the channe 1. The trend of major shear and fracture zones intersects the emer- gency spillway channel at angle of 10°.The side wall excavations parallel joint set I and some wedge instability is expected.The sides of the excavation are designed for 1H:4V slopes.No provi- sion for rockbolting within the channel excavation has been made. Since the channel will be used only infrequently,if ever,during .the 1ife of the project and small rock falls wi 11 not endanger personnel or the spillway operation,a low factor of safety for wall stability in some locations is considered. A zone of consolidation grouting 20 feet deep under the fuse plug is required to ensure there is no seepage through the foundation that could cause piping of the fuse plug material into the founda- tion. 12.11 -Intake (a) General The intake structure at Watana will satisfy the following design conditions: -To provide independent power flow of 3,870 cfs to each of the six Francis turbines,for any reservoir level from elevation 2200 (maximum flood level)to the maximum drawdown level of elevation 2045; -To provide an upstream closure gate on each penstock to permit dewatering of the penstock and turbine water passages for rou- tine inspection and maintenance;and -To control the temperature of the water di scharged from the reservoir within acceptable limits to mitigate the environmental impacts of the Susitna development on downstream fisheries. (b) Environmental Constraints The operation of the Watana reservoir will effect the temperature of the downstream flows: - In summer,the temperature of downstream releases will be cooler than the normal river regime;and 12-45 - In winter,the temperatures will be warmer than the normal river regime. If the temperature of the summer flow is below the acceptable range for salmon spawning,the cooler water in the summer months would have an impact on downstream fisheries,particularly in July and August when salmon are moving into the sloughs downstream from Devi 1 Canyon to spawn.Warmer water in wi nter wi 11 affect the formation of ice,resulting in extensive open water downstream from the reservoirs. Temperature s imu 1at i on was undertaken usi ng a Corps of Engi neers Hydraulic Engineering Center (HEC)program to model the downstream effects of reservoir operation.A variety of different power in- take designs at Watana and Devil Canyon were tested in the model. These studies indicated that the temperature of the discharge in the winter is sensitive to the intake design and would be approxi- mately 39°F.However,the downstream river temperatures in the summer months can be significantly effected by the power intake design at Watana.The flow to the turbine should be drawn fr.om the reservoir surface at all times. The selected power intake design at Watana will permit water to be drawn from the reservoir at four distinct levels through the anti- cipated range of drawdown to mitigate the environmental impacts on downstream river temperatures (see Volume 2). Detai 1s of the reservoi r temperature mode 1i ng are presented in Appendix A. (c)Dr awdown The allowable drawdown of the reservoir level controls the live storage volume usable for river regulation.With no drawdown,the development becomes a run-of-the-river plant and the dependable energy from Watana would be determined by the unregulated river flow.As the maximum allowable drawdown is increased,the flow from the development during a dry year will be increased relative ~-to t henatura+-flow-by-water-drawn-from~st'orage-;-~[)r'awdowns ranq- ing from 100 to 220 feet were analyzed to determine the relation- ship between firm energy,average annual energy and cost.The following results were obtained: - For drawdowns less than 140 feet,the average annual energy (sum of energy produced during each of the 32 years divided by by 32) is essentially constant. - For drawdowns greater than 140 feet,the average annual energy decreses approximately 1 GWH per foot of increased drawdown. - For drawdowns of the order of 100 feet the energy generated in the driest and second driest years are significantly different. 12-46 .1 I "I ] ] I ~l I .J l 1 1 l ---_._~._-_.~-_.__- I ~l 1 1 l 11 I J j') I 1IJ IJ As the drawdown is increased from 100 feet to 140 feet duri ng these two years,the difference in firm energy decreases. -The technical feasibility of a multi-level intake structure designed to accommodate 220 feet of drawdown is marginal and the costs are considerable (compared to a 140 foot drawdown). Based on the above results a 140 feet drawdown was selected as the maximum allowable for the Watana reservoir. (d) Design The power intake will be a concrete structure located deep in the rock at the upstream end of the approach channel.Access to the structure will be the same as access to the intake for the outlet f aci 1i ties. In order to draw from the reservoir surface over a drawdown range of 140 feet,four openings will be provided in the upstream con- crete wall of the structure for each of the six independent power intakes.The upper opening will always be open, but the lower three openings can be closed off by sliding steel shutters operated in a common guide.All openings wi 11 be protected by upstream trashracks.A heated bulkhead wi 11 operate in guides upstream of the racks fo 11 owi ng the water surf ace, keepi ng the racks ice free. A lower control gate will be provided in each intake unit.A single upstream bulkhead gate will be provided for routine mainte- nance of the six intake control gates.In an emergency,stoplogs can be installed on the upstream wall of the power intake for work on the trashracks or shutter guides. The width of the intake will be controlled by the minimum spacing of penstock tunnel excavations,taken as 2.5 times the excavated diameter. The upper level of the_concrete structure will be set at elevation 2202,corresponding to the maximum anticipated flood level.The level of the lowest intake will be governed by the vortex criter- ion for flow into the penstock from the minimum reservoir level EL 2045.The foundat i on of the structure wi 11 be about 200 feet below existing ground level and will be expected to be generally in sound rock. Mechanical equipment will be housed in a steel-frame building on the upper level of the concrete structure.The general arrange- ment of the power intake is shown on Plate 26. 12-47 (e)Approach Channel The width of the approach channel will be governed by the combined width of the power intake and the intake to the outlet facilities. The overall width of the channel will be about 350 feet. The intake channel is bounded by two shear zones: to the north the extension of liThe Fins",and to the south a fracture zone with shearing approximately 80 feet wide."The Fins"feature strikes at 120 0 parallel to the intake excavation and the feature to the south stri kes at 1300,intersect i ng the excavated face of the intake channel at an acute angle. ! 1 1 '.]. I (f) The major joint set I strikes approximately parallel to the shear zones and joint set II strikes at right angles to joint set l. Both joint sets dip vertically. Because of the proximity of both shear zones to the excavations, the excavated slopes of the channel should be IH:4V,with local rockbolting and shotcrete where required.Water velocity in this channel will be in the order of 5 ftls and,will not cause erosion problems. In the adjacent main spi llway approach channel,however,higher flows in the order of 30 ftl s are expected,and at the port a1 of the service spi 11way tunnel a water velocity of 50 ft/s wi 11 occur.Since the junction of the main spillway approach channel and the intake channel is in a zone of sheared and fractured rock, the excavated slopes will require to be IH:4V with 10 foot benches at 40 foot intervals.Extensive rock support will be required in this area ef poor rock to prevent erosion. The maximum flow in the intake approach channel wi 11 occur when six machines are operating and the outlet facilities are discharg- ing at maximum design capacity.With the reservoir drawdown to elevation 2045,the velocity in the approach channel will be 3.5 ft/s,which will not cause any erosion problems.Velocities of 10 cfs may occur where the intake approach channel intersects ..the .ap prQa.chc.h.almel ..to..the..maln.spJJJ.w.aJ,.. Excavations in overburden are expected to be up to 75 feet in depth and will generally be trimmed at 2H:IV;riprap protection will be required in the areas where high~flow velocities are anticipated. Geotechnical Considerations The excavation for the intake structure will be over 200 feet deep in rock in the northwest corner,with a total excavation depth of 240 feet.The southern end of the structure will be located in a shear and fracture zone with an approximate excavation depth of 80 feet in rock.The excavation depth at the north end of the struc- ture will be 120 feet. I l 'j .l 'J l I ~~•....'.,.._."'.'.- I .J ··l 1 .'J 'j With sufficient rock support,mainly from rock bolting,the rock slopes can be cut nearly vertical,with the possible exception of the southern end,where the excavation will intersect the fracture and shear zone.If it proves impracticable to support this face nearly vertically,it will have to be trimmed back to a stable slope.The intake structure would then be partially free-stand- ing.The spillway tunnel portal will also be located in this zone of fractured rock and will require substantial rock support in- stalled in the portal face.Since the intake structure will,when complete,support this rock face,the required support will be temporary. The foundation will be in sound rock,but the shear and fracture zones at the southern end may requi re conso 1i dat ion grouting. Minor shears and fractures exposed in the remainder of the founda- tion area may require local grouting and/or dental concrete. (g) Mechanical Arrangement (i)Ice Bulkhead A heated bulkhead will be installed in guides immediately upstream of the trashracks for each of the six power intakes.The bulkhead will be operated by a movable hoist and will automatically follow the reservoir level.The bulkhead will serve to minimize ice accumulation in the trashrack and intake shutter area,and prevent thermal ice-loading on the trashracks. 11iJ (i i )Trashracks Each of the six power intakes will have four sets of trash- racks,one set in front each intake openings.Each set of trashracks will be in two sections to facilitate handling by the intake servi ce crane.Each set of trashracks wi 11 cover an opening 30 feet wide by 24 feet high.The trash- racks will have a bar spacing of about 6 inches and will be designed for a maximum differential h~ad of 20 feet. I j ,...} iJ (i ii)Intake Shutters Each of the six power intakes will have three intake shut- ters which wi 11 serve to prevent flow through the intake openi ngs behind whi ch the shutters wi 11 be i nst all ed.As the reservoir level drops,the sliding shutters will be removed as necessary using the intake service crane. Each of the shutters will be designed for a differential head of 25 feet.The lowest shutter at each power intake will incorporate a flap gate which,with 25 feet differen- tial head across the shutter,will allow maximum turbine 12-49 flow through the gate.Th i s wi 11 prevent fai lure of the shutters in the event of accidental blocking of all intake openings. The shutter guides will be heated to facilitate removal in sub-freezing weather.In addition,a bubbler system will be provided in the intake behind the shutters to keep the intake structure water surface free of ice. (iv)Intake Service Crane A single,overhead,traveling-bridge type intake service crane will be provided in the intake service buildings. The crane will be used for: -Servicing the ice bulkhead and ice bulkhead hoist; -Handling and cleaning the trashracks; -Handling the intake shutters; - Handling the intake bulkhead gates;and -Servicing the intake gate and hoist. The overhead crane will have a double point lift and fol- lowers for handling the trashrack shutters and bulkhead gates.The crane wi 11 be radio-controlled with a pendant or cab control for backup. (v)Intake Bulkhead Gates One set of intake bulkheads will be provided for closing anyone of the six intake openings upstream from the intake gates.The bulkheads will be used to permit inspection and mai ntenance of the intake shutters and intake guides.The gate will be designed to withstand full differential pressure. (vi)Intake Gates The intake gates will close a clear opening approximately -1-7-·squ are-f.eet-...They wi 11 be ef--the--vel"-t-iGa-l--f-i-xed whee 1 lift with an upstream seals and skinplate. Each gate wi 11 be operated by a hydraulic cylinder type hoist.The length of a cylinder will allow withdrawal of the gate from the water flow.The intake service crane will be used to raise the gate.The gat~s will normally be closed under balanced flow conditions to permit dewatering of the penstock and turbine water passages for inspection and maintenance of the turbines.The gates will also be designed to close in an emergency with full turbine flow conditions in the event of loss of control of the turbine. 1 1 l ] 1 l I 1 I i -) l .l I J j 12.12 -Penstocks The general arrangement of the penstocks is shown on Plates 23 and 25. The desi gn stat ic head on each penstock is 763 feet at di stri butor 1eve1 (e1evat ion 1422).An allowance of 35 percent has been made for pressure rise in the penstock caused by hydraulic transients. (a)Steel Liner The rock adjacent to the powerhouse cavern will be incapable of restraining the internal hydraulic forces within the penstocks. Consequently,the first 50 feet of a steel liner will be required to resist the maximum design head,without support from the sur- round rock.Beyond th is sect ion the steel 1iner wi 11 be extended a further 150 feet.For preliminary design purposes it is assumed that not more than 50 percent of the maximum design head will be taken by the surrounding rock over this length. The steel 1iner wi 11 be surrounded by a concrete infi 11, with a minimum thickness of 24 inches.The internal diameter of the steel lining will be 15 feet based on the minimum total cost of construction and the capitalized value of annual energy losses.A steel transition will be provided between the liner and the 17 feet diameter concrete-lined penstock. LJ (b) (c) Concrete Lining The penstocks will be fully lined with concrete from the intake to the steel lined section,the thickness of lining varying with the external hydrostatic head.The internal di ameter of the concrete lined penstock will be 17 feet,based on the minimum total cost of construction and the capitalized value of annual energy losses. The minimum lining thickness will be 12 inches. Geotechnical Considerations The orientation of the penstock tunnels is generally at right angles to the powerhouse i.e.,70°but at the upstream end near the intake,the orientation is 115°. Generally,good rock quality is expected in this area and the tunnels over the majority of this length in the lower section will require only light support.Joint set II intersects the tunnel at an acute angle of 20°and this may cause some wedge instability. However,in the upper part of the penstocks with an orientation of 115°,the tunnels parallel joint set I and this will probably make tunneling more difficult in this section.An 80 feet wide shear and fracture zone intersects the penstocks 200 feet to 600 feet from the intake structure.The tunnels intersect the zone at an angle of 60°in plan but at this point,the penstocks are inclined 12-51 at 55°therefore the length of tunnel affected by this zone may be up to 150 feet in length.Fairly extensive support may be required in this section.However,the shear and fracture zone is expected to narrow with depth and would lessen the length of the tunnel affected. There is a minimum of 200 feet of rock cover to the penstock.The rock has a high modulus and therefore deformation of the rock around the penstock will be negligible.Highly fractured zones may require consolidation grouting,but this will be in localized areas only. (d) Grouting and Pressure Relief A comprehensive pressure relief system will be required to protect the underground caverns agai nst seepage from the high pressure penstock.The system will comprise small diameter boreholes set out to intercept the jointing in the rock. Grouting around the penstocks will be provided to: - Seal and fill any voids between the concrete lining and the steel liner,which may be left after the concrete placing and curing;and -Fill joints or fractures in the rock surrounding the penstocks to reduce flow into the pressure relief system and to consoli- d ate the rock. A grouti~g drainage gallery will be located upstream of the trans- former gallery,from which curtain grouting may be performed to intersect the grout i ng from the penstock tunnels and from wh i ch drainage holes may be drilled. 12.13 -Powerhouse (a) General nder.ground powerhouse.complex wi Ll.Jie..constnuct.ed.benaath.rthe right abutment.This will require the excavation in rock of three major caverns,the powerhouse,transformer gallery,and surge chambers with interconnecting rock tunnels for the draft tubes and isolated phase bus ducts. Unlined rock tunnels will be required for vehicular access to the three main rock caverns and the penstock construction adit.Ver- tical shafts will be required for personnel access to the under- ground powerhouse,for cable ducts from the transformer gallery, for surge chamber venting and for the heating and ventilation system. j f t ·l 1 \ ] .} .1 ~ I I IJ The general layout of the powerhouse complex is shown in plan and section in Plates 54 and 55,and in isometric projection in Plate 56.The transformer gallery will be located on the upstream side of the powerhouse cavern;the surge chamber will be located on the downstream side.Clear dimensions between major rock excavations have been set at 1.5 times the main span of the larger excavation. This criterion controls not only the minimum distance between caverns,but also the spaci ng between transformer gallery and penstock,between bus shaft and penstock,and the minimum spacing of penstock and tailrace tunnels. The draft tube gate gallery and crane will be located in the surge chamber cavern,above the maximum anticipated surge level.Provi- si on wi 11 a1so be made in the surge chamber for t ail race tunnel intake stoplogs,which will be handled by the draft tube crane. (b) Layout Considerations The location of the powerhouse was selected from consideration of the following data: Plots of the known major faults and shear zones on the right abutment; -Estimated cost of approach channel excavation,intake structure, penstocks,and tailrace;and -An assumed angle of 55°to the horizontal for the inclined section of penstock. Preliminary cost estimates indicate that the intake structure and approach channel excavation are the most significant items in the overall arrangement of the power facilities;the underground powerhouse costs are dependent only on installed capacity.The optimum arrangement has therefore been determined by adjusting the position of the intake to give the least cost for intake,pen- stocks,and tailrace.Since the costs of tunne l i nq are small compared to the intake costs,the intake wi 11 be sited as far upstream as possible,consistent with the required minimum drawdown level,and a reasonable length of access tunnels. The underground transformer gallery will be located on the upstream side of the powerhouse.Thi s arrangement gives the minimum possible distance between the turbines and the surge chamber,for maximum protection of the draft tubes under transient load conditions.The transformer gallery and the powerhouse cavern wi 11 be protected against high pressure seepage from the penstocks by a 200 foot long steel-lined section and an extensive pressure relief system (see Section 12.12). 12-53 (c)Access Tunnels and Shafts Vehicular access to the underground facilities at Watana will be provided by a single unlined rock tunnel from the right bank area adjacent to the diversion tunnel portal.The access tunnel will cross over the diversion tunnels and then descend at a uniform gradient to the south end of the powerhouse cavern at generator floor level,at EL 1463.Separate branch tunnels from the main tunnel will give access to the transformer gallery at EL 1507,the penstock construction adit at EL 1420,and the draft tube gate gallery at EL 1500.The maximum gradients will be 6.1 percent on the construction access tunnel,and 6.9 percent on the permanent access tunnels. The common access tunnel will be sized to provide passing clear- ance for the construction plant used during penstock construction. The size of an articulated trailer required to deliver heavy items of machinery such as the turbine runner,turbine spiral case,and generator rotor,wi 11 be less critical with respect to tunnel size,but will dictate the minimum radius of vertical and horizontal curves.For preliminary design,the cross section of the access tunnel has a modified horseshoe shape,35 feet wide by 28 feet high.The access tunnel branch to the surge chamber and draft tube gallery will have a reduced section,consistent with the anticipated size of vehicle and loading required. The alignment of the access tunnel intersects the trend of major shears and fracture zones at angle of about 80 0 •The tunnel will therefore be driven through these zones for only a minimum dis- tance.The features as mapped on the surface,are up to 60 feet wide but are expected to be less extensive at depth. Joint sets II and III intersect the tunnel aliqnment at angles ofzrand250 •Some unstable rock wedges may'occur due to this pattern of jointing but can be supported by normal support techni- ques.The tunnel parallels joint set II at the powerhouse end. Since joint set II is vertical or near vertical,this will not be a major problem.Some additional overbreak due to this parallel joint set may ace-uri With rock permeabi 1it ies at depth of 1 x 10- 5 to 1 x 10- 6, little if any water inflow into the tunnel is expected.At major shear and fracture zones,some minor seepage may occur which can be controlled by simple drainage techniques.Grouting is not expected to be required.Borings have shown high RQD values for over 60 percent of the tunnel length for which only spot bolting rock support is required. It is est imated from the bori ngs and from the mapped shear and fracture zones that 9 percent of the tunnel length will be in very poor rock with RQDs less than 25 percent.In this zone,it is anticipated that extensive shotcrete and rockbolt support or steel sets and insitu concrete lining will be required. 12-54 1J I 1L_J (d) Additional supports will be required for all junctions,the amount required will depend on the local rock conditions. At the portal,as a general rule,1.5 multiplied by the tunnel span is required for rock cover to the tunnel.The side slopes to the portal cut are expected to be 1H:4V with localized support only.The portal face may be excavated steeply at 1H:10V but will require more extensive rockbolting. For safety,chainlink mesh will be installed over the length of the tunnel crown that is not shotcreted or concreted.Hith good scaling of the rock,the amount of rock caught by this mesh is expected to be minimal. The main access shaft will be at the north end of the powerhouse cavern,providing personnel access from the surface control building by elevator.Access tunnels will be provided from this shaft for pedestri an access to the transformer gallery and the draft tube gate gallery.Elevator access will also be provided to the fire protection head tank,located about 250 feet above power- house level. The shaft 20 feet in internal diameter will probably be raised bored or excavated by a pilot raise bore and enlarged to full diameter by drill and blast.Depending on the method of excava- tion,a concrete lining 9 to 18 inches in thickness will be installed.As in the cable shafts,little rockbolt support is expected to be required for stability,the concrete lining is required mainly for smoothing the profile and providing protection against small pieces of rock falling from the rock walls.The concrete is not required for structural stability of the shaft. Powerhouse Cavern The main powerhouse cavern is designed to accommodate six vertical shaft Francis turbines,in line,with direct coupling to coverhung generators.Each unit is designed to generate 170 MW at a rated head of 680 feet. The vertical dimension of the powerhouse cavern is determined by the physical size of turbine and generator,the crane height required for routine maintenance,and the design dimensions of the turbi ne draft tube.The length of the cavern wi 11 allow for a unit spacing of 60 feet,with a 110-foot long service bay at the south end for rout ine mai ntenance and for construct ion erect ion. The width of the cavern allows for the physical size of the gen- erator plus galleries for piping and air-conditioning,electrical cables,isolated phase bus ducts,and generator circuit breakers. Continuous drainage galleries will be provided to a low level sump. 12-55 Vehicular access will be by tunnel to the generator floor at the south end of the cavern;pedestrian access will be by elevator from the surface control building to the north end of the cavern. Multiple stairway access points will be available from the main floor to each gallery level.Access to the transformer gallery from the powerhouse will be by tunnel from the main access shaft, or by stai rway through each of the iso 1ated phase bus shafts.A service elevator will be provided from the maintenance area on the main floor level to the machine shop and stores area on the turbine floor level. Hatches will be provided through all main floors for installation and mai ntenance of heavy equi pment usi ng the overhead travel i ng cranes. (e)Transformer Gallery The transformers will be located under9round in a separate gallery,120 feet upstream from the main powerhouse cavern,with three connecting tunnels for the isolated phase bus. There will be nine single-phase transformers rated at 15/345 kV,122 MVA, installed in groups of three one group for each pair of turbines. Generator circuit breakers will be required,and will be installed in the powerhouse on the lower generator floor level. High voltage cables will be taken to the surface by two cable shafts,each with an internal diameter of 7.5 feet.Provision has been made for installation of an inspection hoist in each shaft. A spare transformer wi 11 be located in the transformer gallery, and a spare HV circuit will also be provided for improved reli- ability.The station service auxiliary transformers (2 MVA)and the camp services auxiliary transformer (7.5/10 MVA)will be located in the bus tunnels.Generator excitation transformers will be located in the powerhouse on the main floor. Vehicle access to the transformer gallery will be the main power- house access tunnel at the south end.Pedestri an access wi 11 be from the main access shaft or through each of the three isolated (f)Surge Chamber A surge chamber wi 11 be provided 120 feet downstream from the powerhouse cavern to control pressure fluctuations in the turbine draft tubes and tailrace tunnels under transient load conditions, and to provide storage of water for the machine start-up sequence. The chamber will be common to all six draft tubes,and under normal operation will discharge equally to the two tailrace tunnels. The draft tube gates gallery and crane will be located in the same cavern,above the maximum anticipated surge level.The draft tube I -I -\ (1\I i'J i]I, i ! i ..,...J (g) gate crane has also been designed to allow installation of tai lrace tunnel intake stoplogs for emergency closure of either tai lrace tunnel. The chamber will generally be an unlined rock excavation,with localized rock support as necessary for stability of the roof arch and walls.The gate guides for the draft tube gates and tailrace stoplogs will be of reinforced concrete,anchored to the rock by rockbo lt s. Access to the draft tube gate gallery will be by an adit from the main access tunnel;the tunnel will be widened locally for storage of draft tube bulkhead gates and stoplogs. Geotechnical Consideration for Caverns The orientation of the powerhouse cavern was selected to avoid paralleling major joint sets I and II and the trend of shear and fracture zones. Problems of block release into the excavation will be minimal if the major cavern axis is made normal to the strike of the predominant joint sets of the caverns but this arrangement is not practical for power generation considerations. A compromise orientation with powerhouse cavern 165 0 was therefore adopted to avoid paralleling the trend of major shears. BH-4 intersected a fracture zone at elevation 1567 just above the cavern crown of about 20 feet along the hole where RQDs were around 30 percent.In BH-3,a 56 feet length of borehole inter- sected a shear/alteration zone with RQDs of zero at an elevation about 200 feet above the powerhouse. Further investigations will be carried out to locate similar zones if they exist and in final design,the caverns,where possible, would be arranged to avoid the altered and fractured zones. However,this may not be possible and an allowance has been made in the cavern support to deal with these difficult conditions. The rock quality at depth is generally good to excellent.Water pressure tests show permeabi 1it i es in the range of 1 x 10-5 to 1 x 10-6 .Little seepage into the excavation from the surrounding rock is expected. Preliminary design of the support of the cavern roof has been done using the empirical rule:pi =n B IJ Where pi = n = B = = support pressure constant,generally between 0.1 and 0.3 span of cavern density of rock 12-57 Using an average value for n =0.2,which is considered reasonable value for the quality of rock at Watana,this correlates well with other design methods (2). Similar preliminary design for wall support was carried out with modified factors in each case. The lengths of rockbolts have been designed considering: -Average block size; -Span dimension;and -Anchor spacings. The design of large underground excavations in jointed rock requi res an appreci at i on of the effects of stresses both on the rock and its discontinuities.Rock is,in general,a non-homogen- eous discontinuous medium with complex behavior under load.No generalized design method has been evolved which is applicable to all potential situations.Final design studies will be'based on the following methods: -Precedent practice,observational methods and empirical rules; -Stability studies us~ng the results of stress analyses based on the principles of continuum mechanics;and - Analyses using limit equilibrium techniques applied to specific failure mechanisms. Each of the three methods of design have substantial limitations. Design of reinforcement requires input from all three methods and a considerable amount of engineering judgement. Final desi gn of the underground caverns wi 11 requi re further investigation of: -Rock jointing; -Joint shear strength; _-",,-.Ro.ck.mas.5_deformaUDn prnpert jes;~ -Insitu stress field;and -Distribution of rock types. This information can most likely be obtained from an exploration adit driven fin the powerhouse location.Construction of this adit at an early stage will be a design requirement. Although in final design,every effort will be made to locate the powerhouse away from altered zones, such as described earlier encountered in BH-3;an allowance has been made in the cost esti- mates for very substantial support for a portion of the cavern 1ength. 12...58 ,\ I j 1 l I I -J .1 I I I I r I ] ,J (] 'ij \" [J tJ 11 j (h) Allowances have been made in cost estimates for additional rock- bolting at the junctions of the penstock tunnels,draft tube tunnels,bus galleries and access tunnels with the main cavern. A cavern spacing (i.e.,rock pillar width)criteria at 1.5 times the 1arger of the adjacent cavern spans has been adopted.In good rock,this may be somewhat conservative but considering the shear and fracture zones known to exist in the area,this spacing requirement was considered necessary.The spacing of the caverns will be considered in the stress analyses program in final design. The excavation will be carried out by conventional drill and blast techniques.Particular attention will be paid to obtaining an even excavation profile.This contributes to the stability of the cavern wh i1e reduced overbreak decreases the amount of concrete requi red in the powerhouse structure.It is expected that the excavation will be done in several stages starting with a top heading which would be subsequently enlarged to the full width of the cavern.The rock support to the cavern roof will be installed progressively as the excavation is carried out.During this stage,multiple point borehole extensometers and rockbolt load cells will be installed to monitor the support performance.The support design will be modified if necessary in light of the performance measurements.The excavation will then be lowered in benches with wall supports being installed as the excavation is lowered.In the initial stages,access will be by ramps within the powerhouse from the main access tunnel level.As the excava- tion is lowered,muck removal will be through the draft tube and tailrace tunnels.Chain link mesh will be installed on all ex- posed overhead rock surf aces for protect ion agai nst small rock falls. The geotechnical considerations for the transformer gallery and surge chamber are simi lar to those of the powerhouse cavern. Seepage into the transformer gallery may be greater because this gallery is the most upstream cavern and is close to the section of penstock tunnel which is not steel lined.The grout and drainage gallery located upstream of the transformer gallery wi 11 control this seepage.Seepage-will be channeled into a drainage system through the bus galleries and conducted into the powerhouse drain- age system. Grouting and Pressure Relief During construction,the seepage into the excavation is expected to be very low.However,with the reservoir full and the penstock tunnels operating under full head of water,there may be signifi- cant 1eakage into the powerhouse areas.Seepage into the under- ground structures effects the overall stability of the cavern and also would create difficult operating conditions. 12-59 Control of this seepage will be achieved by a grout curtain up- stream of the transformer gallery and an arrangement of drainage holes downstream of this curtain.In addition,drain holes will be drilled from the caverns extending to a depth greater than the rock anchors. Seepage water wi 11 be collected by surface drainage channels and directed into the powerhouse drainage system. It is not anticipated that rock grouting from the caverns to con- trol water inflows will be required. (i)Cable Shafts Cable shafts are 8.5 feet in excavated diameter.Although not required for rock stability,a 6-inch thick concrete lining has been specified for convenience of installing hoist,stairway and cable supports.It is expected that these shafts will be raise bored,and the resulting smooth profile will require little rock support.Allowance has been made for rock bolting at the upper and lower sections. (j)Draft Tube Tunnels The orientation of the draft tube tunnels is determined from the powerhouse alignment.The draft tube tunnels bear 075 0 •Joint set II intersects these tunnels at an acute angle of 20 0 •This is not expected to be a problem except that on the south side of the junction with the surface chamber and the northside of the junc- tion with'the powerhouse where the rock corner may spall off~The tunnel,with excavated diameter of 23 feet,will require only light rock support.When the joint set II tends to parallel the tunnel greater than normal overbreak may occur. The draft tube tunnel will be lined with concrete,2 feet in thickness to embed the steel draft tube liner.The initial rock support will therefore be temporary and concentrated at the junc- tions with the powerhouse and single chamber where the two free ._.-f-aces-g i-v e~gr-e ates-tp at ent i a-l-f or--b-lo ek--i~nst aoi li-t-y.~~ The contact between tunnel crown and concrete tunnel lining will be grouted.Consolidation rock grouting will only be requlred if a highly fractured zone is encountered. 12.14 -Reservoir The Watana reservoir,at normal operating level of 2185 feet,will be approximately 48 miles long with a maximum width in the order of 5 miles.The total water surface area at normal operating level is 37,800 acres.Just upstream from the dam,the maximum water depth will 12-60 I I I --( \ 1'( 1 ! I.J I -I•I I. .I 1 III I I j fJ [J [j [j ) be approximately 680 feet.The mi rnmum reservoir level will be 2045 feet during normal operation,resulting in a maximum drawdown of 140 feet.The reservoir will have a total capacity of 9,470,000 acre-feet of which 4,400,000 acre-feet will be live storage. Prior to reservoir filling,the area below Elevation 2190 will be cleared of all trees and brush.A field reconnaissance of the proposed reservoir area included examination of aerial photographs and maps,an aerial overflight of the reservoir and collection or recent (1980 field season)forest inventory data from the U.S.Forest Service.Most of the vegetatal material within the reservoir consists of trees,with very little undergrowth.The trees are quite small,and the stands are not very dense.In the Watana reservoir area,an estimated 18,000,000 cubic feet of wood exists.Approximately 87 percent of the available timber are soft woods.The combination of steep terrain,moderate- light tree stocking levels,small trees,erosive potential of the reservoir slopes,remoteness,and very restricted access to the reser- voirs are major factors affecting the choice of harvesting systems to be utilized for this project. Present market demand for the timber at Susitna is low,however the worldwide demand wood fluctuates considerably.It is anticipated that use of the harvested material would be limited to either sale as wood - waste products and as fuel. Slash material including brush and small trees,which will be unsuit- able for either of the above uses,will be either burned in a carefully controlled manner consistent with applicable laws and regulations,or hauled to a disposal site.Material placed in disposal areas will be covered with a earthfill cover sufficient to prevent erosion and subse- quent exposure. 12.15 - Tai lrace Two tailrace pressure tunnels will be provided at Watana to carry water from the surge chamber to the river.The tunnels will have a modified horseshoe cross-section with a major internal dimension of 34 feet. For preliminary design the tunnels are assumed to be fully concrete- lined throughout,with a minimum concrete thickness of 12 inches and a length of 1,800 feet. The tailrace tunnels will be arranged to discharge into the river between the mai n dam and the mai n spi llway. In vi ew of the severe limitations on space in this area,one tailrace tunnel will be designed to discharge through one of the diversion tunnel portals.The cross section of the tailrace tunnel will be modified over the common length of 300 feet to the shape of the diversion tunnel in order not to impair the hydraulic performance of the tai lrace tunnel.After diversion clo- sure,the diversion tunnel upstream section will be plugged with concrete. The size of the two tai lrace tunnels was selected after an economic study of the cost of construction and the capitalized value of average 12-61 annual energy losses caused by friction,bends,and changes of section. In an emergency,however,the station can be operated using one tail- race tunne 1,wi th increased head losses.For such an emergency condi- tion'tailrace intake stoplog guides will be provided in the surge chamber.The surge chamber will be designed for full plant load rejec- tion with either one or two tailrace tunnels in operation. The upstream section of the tailrace is on bearing 018 0 and parallels the main access tunnel. The northern tunnel joins the lower diversion tunnel and utilizes the diversion portal for the tailrace outlet. The northern tunnel changes direction on downstream end to bear 60 0 and the portal is situated between the diversion tunnel portals and the spillway flip bucket. Alternative alignments for the diversion tunnels were examined down- stream of the flip bucket but this would require tunnelling through the "Fingerbuster"area in which very poor rock quality has been found. The tunnels are favorably oriented with respect to major joint sets and shears.The rock at depth is of good quality and little support will be requi red except for a number of shear,fracture'and a lterat i on zones.An allowance has been made for rockbo It and shotcrete support for 17 percent of the tunnel length and steel set supports for 8 percent. The tunnels are concrete-lined for hydraulic considerations. The downstream portal of the northern tunnel is located between the spillway flip bucket and diversion tunnel portal.A rock berm is required to be left to the south of the portal to allow construction of a cofferdam to permit access to the tailrace tunnel which the diversion tunnels are operating. It was necessary to locate the tai lrace portal as far downstream as ossible to avoid undercutti the southside of the spillway flip Major joint set I and the trend of the major shears intersect the por- tal face and an acute angle about 10 0 •Therefore it may be desirable to excavate the portal face bank to a natural discontinuity within the rock. The rock berm left between the tailrace portal and diversion portal has been made as wide as possible for stability and to ensure a good con- nection for the tailrace tunnel cofferdam,but the arrangement is restri cted by the downstream cofferdam and the spi llway fl i p bucket. I I I I 1 .j I I I -{J '--jI, [~l LJ U U lJ U I) It is realized that this berm may be unstable because of the jointing and considerable rock support and mass concrete wi 11 be required to maintain it. The rock slope between the tailrace portal and the flip bucket will also require extensive rock support to ensure stability of the flip bucket foundation. The tailrace portals will be reinforced concrete structures designed to reduce the outlet flow velocity,and hence the velocity head loss at the exit to the river.The minimum rock cover required above the tunnels will be 1.5 times the major excavated dimension (about 54 feet). 12.16 -Turbines and Generators (a) Unit Capacity The Watana powerhouse will have six generating units with a nomi- nal capacity of 170 MW corresponding to the minimum December reservoir level (elevation 2117)and a corresponding gross head of 662 feet on the station. The head on the plant will vary from 590 feet to approximately 735 feet.The maximum unit output will change with head, as shown on Figure 12.8. The rated head for the turbine has been established at 680 feet, which is the weighted average operating head on the station. Allowing for generator losses,the rated turbine output is 250,000 hp (186.5 MW)at full gate. The generator rating has been selected as 190 MVA with a 90 per- cent power factor.The generators will be capable of a continuous 15 percent overload allowing a unit output of 196 MW.At maximum reservoir water level,the turbines will be operated below maximum output to avoid overloading of the generators. (b)Turbines The turbines wi 11 be of the vertical shaft Francis type with steel spiral casing and a concrete elbow-type draft tube.The draft tube will comprise a single water passage without a center pier. The rated output of the turbines will be 250,000 hp at 680 feet rated net head.Maximum Mnd minimum heads on the units will be 728 feet and 576 feet respectively.The full gate output of the tur- bines will be about 275,000 hp ar 728 feet net head and 195,000 hp at 576 feet net head.Overgating of the turbines may be possible, providing approximately 5 percent additional power; however, at high heads the turb i ne output wi 11 be restri cted to avoid over- 12-63 loading the generators.The best efficiency point of the turbines will be established at the time of preparation of bid documents for the generating equipment and will be based on a detailed analysis of the anticipated operating range of the turbines.For preliminary design purposes,the best efficiency (best gate) output of the units has been assumed as 85 percent of the full gate turbine output.This percentage may vary from about 80 percent to 90 percent;in general,a lower percentage reduces t urb i ne cost. The full gate and best gate efficiencies of the turbines will be about 91 percent and 94 percent respectively at rated head.The efficiency will be about 0.5 percent lower at maximum head and 1 percent lower at minimum head.The preliminary performance curve for the turbine is shown on Figure 12.9. A speed of 225 rpm has been selected for the unit for preliminary design purposes.The resulting turbine specific speed (N s)is 32.4.As shown on Figure 12.10,this is within present day pract ice for turb ines operat i ng under a head of 680 feet.The turbine data are summarized in Table 12.7. On the basis of information from turbine manufacturers and the studies on the power plant layout,the centerline of the turbine distributor has been set at 30 feet below minimum tailwater level. The final setting of the unit will be established in conjunction with the turbine manufacturer when the contract for the supply of the turbine equipment has been awarded. Bulkhead domes will be provided with two of the turbines (Units 3 and 4) to be installed at the bottom of the draft tube liner at the time of turbine installation.The domes permit work to con- tinue on turbine installation after the tailrace,surge chamber, and draft tubes are flooded (prior to startup of Unit 1),without installing draft tUbe gates. Because of the relatively short length of the intake penstock and a surge tank location immediately downstream of the powerhouse, .....the hydraulic transient characteristics.oftbet!J.r!:LLDJ~~.9r~ favorable.The regulating ratio is above the minimum recommended by the USBR for good regulating capacity.Also,unit speed rise and penstock pressure rise are all well with in normal accepted values.Because of the deep unit setting and the relatively short distance between the turbine and the tailrace surge tank,there will be no problems with draft tUbe water column separation. The potential problems associated with partial loads must be given serious consideration in the final design. 1 I I 1 1 I ,I 1 1 .j I ) I I I .J I l ) Generators The generators are rated as follows: (i)Type and Rating 190 MVA,0.9 power factor 170 MW 15 kV,3 phase,60 Hertz 225 rpm 3.5 MW-sec/MVA 28 percent (maximum) 1.1 (minimum) 98 percent (minimum) The generators will be of the air-cooled type,with water- to-air heat exchangers located on the stator periphery. The ratings given above are for a temperature rise of the stator and rotor windings not exceeding 60°C with cooling air at 40°C. The generators will be capable of continuous operation as synchronous condensers when the turbine is unwatered, with an underexcited reactive power rating of 140 MVAR and an overexcited rat i ng of 110 MVAR.Each generator wi 11 be capable of energizing the transmission system without risk of self-excitation. The generators will be capable of delivery 115 percent of rated MVA continuously (195.5 MW)at a voltage of +5 per- cent without exceeding 80°C temperature rise in accordance with ANSI Standard C50.10. Rated Capac i ty: Rated Power: Rated Voltage: Synchronous Speed: Inertia Constant: Transient Reactance: Short Circuit Ratio: Efficiency at Full Load: The optimum arrangement at Watana will consist of two gen- erators per transformer bank, with each transformer bank compri sing three si ngl e-phase transformers.(Development of this scheme is described in Section 12.18).The genera- tors wi 11 be connected to the transformers by iso 1ated phase bus through generator circuit breakers directly connected to the isolated phase bus ducts. Each generator will be provided with a high initial re- sponse static excitation system.The units will be con- trolled from the Watana surface control room,with local control facility also provided at the powerhouse floor. The units will be designed for black start operation. The six generators in the Watana powerhouse will be of the vertical shaft,overhung type directly connected to the vertical Francis turbines.The arrangement of the units is shown in Plates 27 and 28 and the single line diagram is shown in Plate 32. (c) 12-65 Generator Construction Generator Excitation System Approximate dimensions and weights of the principal parts of the generator are given below: I.J I ) 36 feet 22 feet 7 feet 385 tons 740 tons Stator pit diameter: Rotor di ameter: Rotor length (without shaft): Rotor weight: Total weight: It shaul d be noted that these are appro)(imate fi gures and they will vary between manufacturers,sometimes consider- ably.However,at this stage of design feasibility and planning,the dimensions and weights are considered appro- priate and representative. The generator will be provided with a high initial response type static excitation system supplied with rectified exc i- t ation~powe~~~f.romt rans£ormers~~connected-d~i-~ect~l-j'-~to .the~ generator terminals.The excitation system will be capable of supplying 200 percent of rated excitation field (ceiling va ltage)with a generator termi na1 va ltage of 70 percent. The power rectifiers will have a one-third spare capacity to maintain generation even during failure of a complete rectifier module. The design data of the generators stated above should be reviewed during the detailed design stage for overall economic and technical design and performance requirements of the power plant and the power system. The generator will be of a modified umbrella type overhung construction,with a combined thrust and guide bearing be low the rotor and a gu ide beari ng above the rotor.The lower beari ng bracket wi 11 support the rotor and turbi ne runner weights and the unbalanced hydraulic thrust of the runner.All removable parts,fncluding turbine parts,will be designed for removal through the generator stator. The rotating parts of the generator and turbine wi 11 be designed so that the critical speed exceeds the runaway speed of the unit by at least 20 percent. (i i ) (i i 1) The excitation system will be equipped with a fully static voltage regulating system maintaining output from 30 per- cent to 115 percent,within +0.5 percent accuracy of the voltage setting.Manual control will be possible at the excitation board located on the powerhouse floor,although i··--) ) ) lJ 1-.1 lJ IJ the un it wi 11 norma 11 y be under remote contro 1,as de- scribed in Section 12.18 covering the control systems of the plant. (iv)Erection and Tests As is normal for large hydroelectric generators,the machines will not be assembled completely and tested in the factory.The erect i on and tests of the generators at the powerhouse,therefore,wi 11 assume greater importance in the successful commissioning of the station and should be carefully coordinated with that of the turbines and civil works. The assemb ly of the stator sect ions wi 11 be done in the pit.The rotor will be assembled in the erection bay.The powerhouse cranes will be capable of lifting the completed rotor assembly and lowering it into the stator,and onto the thrust bearing and shaft assembly on the bracket supports.Al ignment and tests of the rotor,turbine runner,and shaft will be done to tolerances specified in NEMA/ANSI Standards. The generators wi 11 be fully tested after assemb ly and mechanical run tests,including dielectric tests,satura- tion tests,heat run,efficiency,and full-load rejection tests.Ceiling voltage and response of the excitation system will be tested.Operation of the unit within specified vibration limits will be checked. (d)Governor System The governor system which control the generating unit will include a governor actuator and a governor pumping unit.A single system will be provided for each unit.The governor actuator will be the electric hydraulic type and will be connected to the computerized station control system. 12.17 -Miscellaneous Mechanical Equipment (a)Powerhouse Cranes Two overhead trave 1i ng br i dge type powerhouse cranes wi 11 be i n- stalled in the powerhouse.The cranes will be used for: -Installation of turbines,generators,and other powerhouse equipment;and - Subsequent dismantling and reassembly of equipment during main- tenance overhauls. 12-67 Each crane will have a main and auxiliary hoist.The combined capacity of the main hoist for both cranes will be sufficient for the heavi est equi pment 1i ft,wh ich wi 11 be the generator rotor, plus an equalizing beam.A tentative crane capacity of 205 tons has been established.The auxiliary hoist capacity will be about 25 tons. (b)Draft Tube Gates Draft tube gates will be provided to permit dewatering of the tur- bine water passages for inspect ion and mai ntenance of the tur- bines.The draft tube gate openings (one opening per unit)will be located in the surge chamber. The gates will be of the bulk- head type,installed under balanced head conditions using the surge chamber crane.Four sets of gates have been assumed for the six units,with each gate 20 feet wide by 10 feet high. When Unit 1 is ready for startup,the gates will be installed in Units 2, 5, and 6,with one gate available for Unit 1.Turbine bulkhead domes will be installed in Units 3 and 4. (c) Surge Chamber Gate Crane A crane will be installed in the surge chamber for installation and removal of the draft tube gates as well as the tailrace tunnel intake stoplogs.The crane will either be a monorail (or twin monorai 1)crane,a top runni ng crane,or a gantry crane.For the preliminary design,a twin monorail crane has been assumed. The crane will be about 30 tons in capacity,and will have a two point 1i ft. (d)Miscellaneous Cranes and Hoists In addition to the powerhouse cranes and surge chamber gate crane, the following cranes and hoists will be provided in the power plant: - A 5-ton monorail hoist in the transformer gallery for transfor- - A 4-ton monorail hoist in the circuit breaker gallery for handling the main circuit breakers; Small overhead jib or A-frame type hoists in the machine shop for handling material;and - A-frame or monorail hoists for handling miscellaneous small equipment in the powerhouse. (e)Elevators Access and service elevators will be provided for the power plant as follows: I 'J I J ] j ') "] "] 'J "J .] '] 1 ] J 1 J 1 1 1 [1 [] (J [] [] [] [] lJ ,1 lJ lJ U IJ U [) (j (f) -An access elevator from control buildings to powerhouse; - A service elevator in the powerhouse service bay;and -Inspection hoists in the cable shafts. Power Plant Mechanical Service Systems The mechanical service systems for the power plant can be grouped into six major categories: -Station water systems; -Fire protection; -Compressed air; -Oi 1 storage and handling; - Drainage and dewatering;and -Heating,ventilation and cooling. (i)Station Water Systems The station water systems will include the water intake, cooling water systems,turbine seal water systems,and domestic water systems.The water intakes wi 11 supply water for the various station water systems in addition to' fire protection water.The water can be taken from the penstock;however,pressure-reducing valves will be neces- sary because of the high pressure of the water (about 330 psig maximum).Alternatively,water can be supplied from the draft tube using pumps to provide suitable pressure. On a unit basis,cooling water will be required for genera- tor air coolers,turbine and generator bearing coolers, transformers,and powerhouse unit air coo1ers.The total cool ing water requirements for each unit wi 11 be about 4,000 gpm.In addition,the compressed air systems in the service bay will require approximately 100 gpm of cooling water.One coo1i ng water pump wi 11 be provi ded per unit which will take water from downstream from the water intake strainer.To ensure suitable reliability,the cooling water pumps for two units will be interconnected,with each pump capable of handling the flow for both units.Two cooling water pumps in the service bay will handle compres- sor cooling water requirements.The cooling water for each unit will discharge into the turbine draft tube,while the compressor cooling water will flow into the station drain- age system. Turbine seal water will be supplied to the seal on the main shaft and to the runner seals when the unit is spinning in air (i .e.,in spinning reserve mode).Fi ltered water may or may not be required,depending on the type of shaft seal.If no fi ltration is needed,the seal water will be 12-69 (i i) taken directly from the high-pressure side of the cooling water pumps.If filtration is necessary,a single system will be provided for the powerhouse.The system will have two fi lters and two pumps whi ch wi 11 take water from downstream from the water intake strai ner and di stri bute the water to each unit via a looped header. Domest ic water wi 11 be requi red for the washrooms,1unch rooms,drinking fountains,and a service sink and emergency eyewash in the battery room.Peak domestic water require- ments are expected to be about 30 gpm.The system wi 11 have two pumps and a hydropneumatic tank.Water will be t akenfrom the water intake system and wi 11 be treated by chlorination or other means as necessary. Fire Protection System The power plant fire protection system will consist of a fire protection water system with fire hose stations located throughout the powerhouse and transformer gallery; sprinkler systems for the generators,transformers,and the oil rooms;and portable fire extinguishers located in strategic areas of the powerhouse and transformer gallery. Fire hose stations will be provided on all floors of the powerhouse,in the transformer gallery,and in the bus tunnels. Fire protection water will be taken from the station water intakes.Pressuri zed water wi 11 be provi ded by a pumped system with two main fire pumps as well as a jockey pump, or alternatively by a head tank with two supply pumps which keep the head tank full.For preliminary design purposes, a system with a head tank has been selected because of the increased re1i ab i1i ty of the system.Wi th an underground powerhouse,a head tank can be provided quite easily at a suitable elevation as an adit to the access shaft. The capacity of the head tank wi 11 be about 100,000 9 a11orf$~;--th-etanks-wi ll-have--two-comp-artments--to--permH- draining of half the water for inspection and maintenance. For reliability,the water supply pumps will have two e1ectrica.1 power sources. Service water outlets will be installed at the various fire hose stations to supply water for washing downs floors or equipment.The sprinkler systems for generators,transfor- mers,and oil rooms will be the dry deluge type,operated by a solenoid valve which in turn will be activated by detectors in the respective area. The portable fire extinquishers will generally be carbon dioxide or a dry chemical type. ] J ] :} J 1 J J ) ) ) ] J ) ) .J ) 1 ) [] (] [] (J 1J u u (J ) (iii)Compressed Air Systems Compressed air will be required in the powerhouse for the following: -Service air; -Instrument air; -Generator brakes; -Draft tube water level depression; -Air blast circuit breakers;and -Governor accumulator tanks. For the preliminary design,two compressed air systems have been assumed:a 100-psig air system for service air,brake ai r,and air for draft tube water 1eve 1 depressi on;and a 1,OOO-psi g hi gh-pressure air system for governor ai rand circuit breaker air.For detailed plant design,a separate governor air system and c t rcuit-breaker air system may be provided. The service air systems will have three air compressors of the rotary screw or rec i procat i ng type,each wi th a capa- city of about 200 cfm.The system wi 11 have four air receivers,two with approximately 800 ft3 capacity used for the draft tube water 1eve 1 depress ion system,and two with approximately 150 ft 3 used for service and brake air.The system will be designed to give priority to the brake air system.Service air piping with air hose sta- tions will be located on all floors of the powerhouse and in the transformer gallery. The high-pressure governor/circuit~breaker air system will have three reciprocating air compressors with approximately 30-cfm capacity each,and three small air receivers.The governor air system will supply air for initial filling of the governor system accumulator tanks and for makeup air to replace air lost through leakage and air dissolved in the governor system oil. The circuit breaker air system will provide compressed air for operation of the main breakers.To insure dry air for the breakers,the air will be stored at 1,000 psig and then reduced to about 350 psig for operation of the breakers. Instrument air wi 11 also be taken from the high-pressure air system. (i v)Oi 1 Storage and Handl i ng Facilities will be provided for replacing oil in the trans- formers and for topping-up or replacing oil in the turbine and generator beari ngs and the governor pumpi ng system. 12-71 For preliminary design purposes,two oil rooms have been assumed, one in the transformer gallery and one in the powerhouse service bay. The transformer gallery wi 11 have two o i 1 storage tanks, one for fi ltered oi 1 and the other for unfi ltered oi 1. Each tank will have a capacity at least equal to the volume of ol1 in one transformer (about 8,000 gallons).A header with valve stations at each transformer wi 11 be used for transferring oil to and from the transformers.Oi 1 will be transferred by a portable pump and filter unit. A similar system will be provided in the powerhouse with a filtered and unfiltered oil tank and distribution header with valve stations at each unit.The o i 1 tank capacity will be equal to the total oil volume for one unit (about 3,000 gallons). During the detailed design stages,consideration should be given to the use of mobile oil tanks lo~ated in a parking area near the powerhouse and transformer gallery,near the access tunnel. (v)Drainage and Dewatering Systems The drainage and dewatering systems will consist of: - A unit dewatering and filling system; - A clear water discharge system;and - A sanitary drainage system. The unit dewatering and filling systems will consist of two sumps each with two dewatering pumps and associated piping and valves from each of the units.To prevent station floodi ng,the sump wi 11 be desi gned to withstand maximum tailwater pressure.For preliminary design purposes, submersible dewatering pumps have been assumed.Vertical turbine type pumps can also be considered;however,since the dewatering system .acts as anemergenGy~dr-a·inage-s:y-stem, the pump columns would have to be extended so that the motors are above maximum tailwater level.Another option is turbine-driven pumps,but these are generally very costly.A valved draft tube drain line will connect to a dewatering header running along the dewatering gallery. The spiral case will be drained by a valved line connecting the spiral case to the draft tube.Suitable provisions will be necessary to insure that the spiral case drain valve is not open when the spiral case is pressurized to headwater 1eve 1.The dewateri ng pump di scharge 1i ne wi 11 discharge water into the surge chamber.The general proce- dure for dewateri ng a unit wi 11 be to close the intake gate,drai n the penstock to t ai lwater 1eve1 through the ) J ) ) ) ) .) J .J~~ J } ) ) ) J ) ) ) r flI ) [) (1IJ lJ u (J unit,then open the draft tube and spiral case drains to dewater the unit.Unless the drainage gallery is below the bottom of the draft tube elbow,it will not be possible to comp 1ete 1y dewater the draft tube through the dewateri ng header.If necessary,the remainder of the draft tube can be unwatered using a submersible pump lowered through the draft tube access door.Unit filling to tailwater level wi 11 be accompl ished from the surge chamber through the dewateri ng pump discharge 1ine (with a bypass around the pumps)and then through the draft tube and spiral case drain lines.Alternatively,the unit can be filled to t ai lwater 1eve1 through the draft tube drain 1ine from an adjacent unit.Fi lling the unit to headwater pressure will be accomplished by "cracking"the intake gate and raising it about 2 to 4 inches. The clearwater drainage system will handle normal drainage into the power plant.Drainage will be collected by a network of floor drai ns,trench drai ns,pressure re 1i ef drains,and equipment drains which discharge into gravity drainage sumps from which the water will be pumped to the surge chamber. The sumps in the powerhouse will have submersible pumps for the same reasons as di scussed above for the dewateri ng system.The transformer gallery will have vertical turbine type pumps.The drainage sumps in the powerhouse will have an overflow line which will discharge water into the adja- cent dewatering sump should inflow into the drainage sumps exceed the capaci ty of the drai nage pumps.The overflow line will have a flap valve to prevent reverse flow from the dewatering sump. Particular care will be taken to prevent accidental oil spi 11 s from bei ng discharged into the powerhouse.The following provisions will be made: - All three main sumps will have oil contamination detec- tors to obtain the pressure of oil in the sumps; -Drainage into the sumps will first pass through an oil separator; -Controls for the drai nage pumps·into the transformer gallery will be interlocked with the transformer fire protection sprinkler system.Activation of the sprinklers,which signifies a transformer fire and the possibility of a major oil spill,will prevent the drai nage pumps from st art ing unt i 1 the drai nage sump is almost full.It will be possible to retain about 40,000 gallons of oi l/water in the sump before the pump start 12-73 (each transformer holds about 8,000 gallons of oil).In this manner,it will be possible to retain a large amount of oil inthe sump where it may be skimmed off;and -Suitable oil retention curbs will be provided in the oil rooms. Sanitary drainage from the washrooms, lunch room,and drinking fountains will drain to a packaged sewage treat- ment plant and then wi 11 be di scharged into the surge chamber via sewage lift pumps. (vi)Heating,Ventilation and Cooling The heating,ventilation and cooling system for the under- ground power plant will be designed primarily to maintain sui tab 1e temperatures for equi pment operat ion and to pro- vide a safe and comfortable atmosphere for operating and maintenance personnel.Air will be drawn into the power facilities through one or more shafts,cirtulated through- out the power plant,and discharged from the power pl ant through other shafts.For preliminary design purposes it has been assumed that air will be drawn down the access and the cable shafts,and discharged out through the access tunnel;however,the actual arrangement wi 11 depend upon the final design. The power plant will be located in mass rock which has a constant year around temperature.of about 40°F.Consi der- ing heat given off from the generators and other equipment, the primary requirement will be for air cooling.Ini- tially,some heating will be required to offset the heat loss to the rock,but after the first few years of opera- tion an equilibrium will be reached with a powerhouse rock surface temperature of about 60 to lOaF. Air cooling will be accomplished by providing suitable air changes incorporating cooling coils in the air circulation _..~--~-_._..__._--~~-.-s.ystem.-···-G001ingwa·ter--t~0m--the-s~tat-i-0n·-serv+eewater-·· supply will be circulated through the cooling coils.In winter,some heating may be required to moderate the temperature of the incoming air into the power plant. Allowance must be made in the design for the possibility that large quantities of air (up to about 5,000 cfm per unit)may be required for turbine aeration. Other factors which must be considered or incorporated in the design are: -To prevent or minimize the circulation of combustion products in the event of a fire,powerhouse ventilation } I ) 1 .l ) 1 1 ) J ) ) ) ) ,.j ) ) ) 11I: !I [J,I 1 1 iJ I 1 lJ (g) (h) should be separate from transformer gallery ventilation and provision should be made for isolating the two areas; and -Suitable air locks will be necessary to preclude adverse chimney effects in the shafts. Surface Facilities Mechanical Service Systems The mechanical services at the control building on the surface will include: A heating,ventilation,and air conditioning system for the control room; -Domestic water and washroom facilities;and - A halon type fire protection system for the control room. Domestic water will be supplied from the powerhouse domestic water system, with pumps located in the powerhouse and piping up through the access shaft.Sanitary drainage from the control bu i ld i nq will drain to the sewage treatment plant in the powerhouse through piping in the access tunnel. The standby generator bUilding will have the following services: - A heating and ventilation system; - A fuel oil system with buried fuel oil storage tanks outside the building,and transfer pumps and a day tank within the building; and - A fire protection system of the carbon dioxide or halon type. Machine Shop Facilities u (J A mach ine shop and too1 room wi 11 be located in the powerhouse service bay area with sufficient equipment to take care of all normal maintenance work at the plant,as well as machine shop work for the larger components at Devil Canyon.For preliminary design purposes,an area of about 1,500 ft 2 has been allocated for the machine shop and tool room.The actual equipment to be installed in the machine shop will be decided during the design stages of the project;however,it will generally include drill presses, lathes,arbor press,power hacksaw,shaper,and grinders. 12.18 -Accessory Electrical Equipment The accessory electrical equipment described in this section includes the following: 12-75 Main generator step-up 15/345 kV transformers; Isolated phase bus connecting the generator and transformers; Generator circuit breakers; 345 kV oil-filled cables from the transformer terminals to the switchyard; Control systems of the entire hydro plant complex;and Station service auxiliary AC and DC systems. Other equipment and systems described include grounding,lighting system,and communications. The main equipment and connections in the power plant are shown in the single line diagram,Plate 32.The arrangement of equipment in the powerhouse,transformer gallery,and cable shafts is shown on Plates 27 through 29. (a)Selection of Transformers and H.V.Connections (i)General Ni ne single-phase transformers and one spare transformer will be located in the transformer gallery.Each bank of three s i ngl e-phase transformers wi 11 be connected to two generators through generator ci rcui t breakers by iso 1ated phase bus located in individual bus tunnels.The HV terminals of the transformer will be connected to the 345 kV switchyard by 345 kV single-phase oil-filled cable installed in 700-footlong vertical shafts.There will be two sets of three s i ngle-phase 345 kV oi l-fi lled cables installed in each cable shaft.One set will be maintained as a spare three phase cable circuit in the second cable shaft.These cable shafts will also contain the control and power cables between the powerhouse and the surface contra 1 room,as well as emergency power cab 1es from the diesel generators at the surface to the underground facili- ties. A number of considerations led tothecho~ce~of the above sys-temoftransform at-i-on .and eonnee-t+ons-;--l3i-f-ferent--a-lter- native methods and equipment designs were also considered. In summary,these are: -One transformer per generator vs one transformer for two generators; -Underground transformers vs surface transformers; -Direct transformation from generator voltage to 345 kV vs intermediate step transformation to 230 kV or 161 kV,and then to 345 kV; -Single-phase vs three-phase transformers for each alter- native method considered;and 1 1 1 -I ) 1 1 -·.1.- I ) j l- J l ) ) ) i f1 \I fl I J ( i i ) -Oi l-fi lled cable vs solid dielectric cable for SF6 gas- insulated bus. Reliability Considerations Reliability considerations will be based on the general reliability requirements for generation and transmission described in Section 15 regarding the forced outage of a single generator,transformer,bus or cable in addition to planned or scheduled outages in a single contingency situa- tion,or a subsequent outage of equipment in the double contingency situation.The system should be capable of readjustment after the outage for loading within normal ratings and for loading within emergency ratings. The generators will be rated with a 115 percent continuous overload capability.All main connections and equipment including the transformers,circuit breakers,isolated phase bus,and 345 kV cables will be rated for continuous operation at the 115 percent overload rating of the genera- tors. I I\J Emergency ratings are different for different items of equipment and emergency periods.It generally varies between 110 to 130 percent in summer to 120 to 140 percent in winter for a 4 to 12 hour period,with somewhat higher values for very short (1 hour)emergency periods. (iii)Technical and Economic Considerations The use of surface transformers connected directly to the underground generators by isolated phase buses was ruled out at the outset due to significantly higher costs and higher losses associated with generator isolated phase bus.The incremental cost could be decreased if three units were connected to one transformer,but such a compro- mise is not acceptable due to reliability considerations. In general,3-phase transformers are preferred to single- phase transformers because of their lower overall costs, smaller overall dimensions and smaller underground gallery dimensions.However,transport limitations within the Railbelt seriously affect the use of the larger size 3-phase transformers,both in di mens ions and wei ght.The following are the road and rail data available: - Parks and Denali Hi~hways Maximum load - 150,000 lb Overweights require special permits. 12-77 -Ra i lway Maximum Weight -263,000 lb Dimension Limits - 16 feet high,10 feet wide A further check of these design limitations for the selected sizes of transformers is recommended during the detailed design stage.A careful route reconnaissance study is also required. Single-phase transformers are therefore recommended for the 6-unit power plant.One advantage of single-phase trans- formers is that a spare transformer can be provided at a fairly low incremental cost. The grouped unit arrangement with two generators per trans- former will allow a smaller gallery length,with center-to- center spacing comparable to the generator spacing.The grouped un it arrangement is the recommended arrangement. The alternative with one transformer per generator will require a gallery about 300 feet longer. The double~step transformation scheme (15/161 KV generator- transformer,161 KV cable and 161/345 KV auto-transformer at the switchyard)is economicallly competitive with the direct transformation scheme (15/345 KV),resulting from a number of tradeoffs:cost/MVA per transformer is lower; also dimensions,weights and cavern dimensions are lower; but the i ntermedi ate..voltage transformer costs are add it i ona 1. Di rect transformat i on (15/345 KV)is best from system transient stability viewpoint since the overall impedance of the generator unit to the 345 KV bus is lower.Further- more,it has a better overall reliability since there is one less voltage level and,therefore,less equipment in the generat ing "chat nil of equi pment.Th is scheme costs about·$2 million less in overall costs compared to the .....-~-~.....····-doub+e-s-t·ep·transformation scheme;------··~···~_·-· The comparison between 345 KV oil-filled cables and other 345 KV cable and bus system is made in Section 12.18.The SF6 bus is about 5 to 6 times the cost of the oi l-fi lled cables.It also requires a larger diameter cable shaft. The oil-filled cable is well proven at a number of under- ground power i nsta 11 at ions and was therefore selected for both technical and economic considerations. f1IJ (c)Main Transformer (i)Rating and Characteristics The nine single-phase transformers (three transformers per group of two generators)and one spare transformer,will be of the two winding,oi l-immersed,forced-oi 1 water-cooled (FOW)type,with rating and electric characteristics as follows: The temperature rise above air ambient temperature of 40°C is 55°C for the windings for continuous operation at the rated kVA. j r ) IJ Rated capac i t y: High voltage winding: Basic insulation level (BIL) of H.V.winding: Low voltage winding: Transformer impedance: 145 MVA 345 /-V3 kV,Grounded Y 1300 kV 15 kV,De lta 15 percent II1.__1 I I.I11 ( i i )Construction The transformers will be of the FOW type with water-cooled heat exchangers whi ch wi 11 remove the heat from the oi 1 circulating through the windings.A one-third spare cooler capacity wi 11 be provided.The transformer wi 11 be of the forced oil directed type with a design aimed to achieve minimum dimensions and weight for shipping purposes.The low voltage terminals will be connected to the isolated phase bus,and the high voltage terminals to the 345 kV oil-filled cable box termination at the transformer. Lightning arresters will be connected directly to the high voltage terminals.The transformer installation in the gallery will be designed to provide the necessary ground and safety clearances from the live 345 kV terminals to all nearby equipment and structures. The tank underbase will be provided with flanged wheels for transport on rails.The spare single-phase transformer will be exactly identical to the remaining nine single- phase transformers.It wi 11 be mai ntai ned ina state of maximum readiness,for connection in the shortest practical time to replace any of the main transformers. The transformers will be fully tested and inspected in the factor y accord ing to ANSI!NEMA St andards.They wi 11 be shipped without oil and filled with inert gas for protec- tion.At the site,erection would be mainly for external fittings such as bushings,lightning arresters,heat exchangers,piping,and electrical connections. 12-79 Generator Isolated Phase Bus (i)Ratings and Characteristics .1 1 I I 1 ~1 J .) 1 ) 1 1 ) ,1 ,1 l I I 18,000 240,000 150,000 150 Transformer Connection to the surge protect ion excitation transformers, Bus duct ratings are as 9,000 240,000 150,000 150 Generator Connection Rated current,amps Short circuit current moment ary,amp s Short circuit current, symmetrical,amps Basic insulation level,kV (BIL) The bus will be of standard self-cooled design with conduc- tor and tubular enclosure of aluminum.The current rating is such that either a self-cooled or forced cooled design will be.poss ibJe.With ..aforcedcooled-desjgn,the size and costs will be lower;however,if the forced-cooling plant fails,the bus would be severely derated to a rating less than 50 percent of the forced cooling rating.The self-cooled designs are used up to 30,000 amps rated current and are therefore recommended for this installation where the ratings will not exceed 18,000 amps. The enclosure will be of welded construction and each bus will be grounded.The construction is highly reliable; will eliminate phase-to-phase faults,neutralize the magne- tic field outside the enclosure,and provide protection against contamination and moisture,with consequent minimum maintenance requirements. The iso 1ated phase bus mai n connect ions wi 11 be located between the generator,generator ci rcui t breaker,and the transformer. Fire walls wi 11 separate each single-phase transformer. Each transformer will be provided with fog-spray water fire protection equipment,automatically operated from heat detectors located on the transformer. Tap-off connect ions wi 11 be made and potential transformer cubicle, and station service transformers. fo 11 ows: The bus conductors will be designed for a temperature rise of 65°C above 40°C ambient temperature. (ii)Construction (iii)Fire Protection (d) (e)Generator Circuit Breakers The generator circuit breakers will be of the enclosed air circuit breaker design suitable for mounting in line with the generator isolated phase bus ducts.They are rated as follows: The short circuit rating is tentative and will depend on detailed analysis in the design stage. The breakers will be designed and constructed with a high degree of reliability.The phase spacing of the breakers will be genera 11y the same as the iso1ated phase bus duct.The breakers will be mounted on strong foundations on the generator floor designed to absorb the reaction forces when the breaker operates. (} r I I ( ) () Rated Current: Voltage: Breaking capacity, symmetrical,amps 9,000 Amps 23 kV class,3-phase,60 Hertz 150,000 I ]u ! \ !)u I I Ii IJ (f)345 kV Oil-Filled Cable (1)General The recommended 345 kV connection is a 345 kV oil-filled cable system between the high voltage terminals of the transformer and the surface switchyard.The cable wi 11 be installed in a vertical cable shaft.Cables from two transformers will be installed in a single cable shaft. This system of 345 kV connection was chosen after a techni- cal and economic analysis of alternative methods of connec- tion,including: -SF6 isolated bus system; -High pressure oil pipe cable system;and -Solid dielectric cable system. The SF6 bus system is considered to be the best alterna- tive to the oil-filled cable system.Its advantages are a generally better overall reliability,including a low fire hazard.However,it costs approximately 5 to 6 times that of the oil-filled cable installation,and requires almost twice the diameter cable shaft of the cable installation. The overall cost difference is approximately $7,000,000 in direct costs. The oil pipe cable will consist of three conductors con- tained within an oil-filled steel pipe.This system has the highest potential fire hazard of all the cable systems and is not recommended for high head vert ical cab 1e in- 12-81 (g) st al lat lons.The solid dielectric (polymeric)cables are still under development at the 345 kV to 500 kV voltage class. It is recommended that further detailed study of the oil- filled cable in comparison with the SF6 bus and other more recent SF6 cable designs under development be undertaken at the design stage. By far the greatest number of high voltage,high capacity installations utilize oil-filled cables.A formidable experience record is evident for the oil-filled cable installations associated with large power plants all over the world.Typical installations include the 525 kV/650 MVA units at Grand Coulee III,the 345 kV/550 MVA units at Churchill Falls in Canada,the 400 kV/2640 MVA cables at Severn River crossing in Great Britain,and the 400 kV/2340 MVA cables at Dinorwic pumped storage plant in Great Britain. (i1)Rating and Characteristics The cable will be rated for a continuous maximum current of 800 amps at 345 kV +5 percent.The maximum conductor temperature at the maxTmum rating will be 70°C over a maxi- mum ambient of 35°C.This rating will correspond to 115 percent of the generator overload rating.Tbe normal operating rating of the cable will be .87 percent,with a corresponding lower conductor temperature which wi llim- prove the overall performance and lower cable aging over its project operating life.Depending on the ambient air temperature,a further overload emergency rating of about 10 to 20 percent will be available during winter condi- tions. The cables wi 11 be of single-core construction with oi 1 flow through a central oil duct within the copper conduc- tor.Cables will have an aluminum sheath and PVC over- sheath.~~'No-cable jointingwill be required--for-the 70-o--{0 800 feet length cable installation. Control Systems (i)General A Susitna Area Control Center will be located at Watana to control both the Watana and the Devil Canyon power plants as shown in Pl ate 34.The control center wi 11 be 1inked through the superv i sory system to the Central Di spatch Control Center at Willow as described in Section 14. 12-82 1 I ') J I l ~ ) i .~ j 1 ) j- .I I ·'1 1 I I [1 ,r1 I j i 1.1 I] ".1 [j 11L..J (/ 11 1 J The supervisory control of the entire Alaska Railbelt sys- tem will be done at the Central Dispatch Center at Willow. A high level of control automation with the aid of digital computers wi 11 be sought but not a complete computerized direct digital control of the Watana and Devil Canyon power plants.Independent operator controlled local-manual and local-auto operations will still be possible at Watana and Devil Canyon power plants for testing/commissioning or during emergencies.The control system will be designed to perform the following functions at both power plants: -Start/stop and loading of units by operator; - Load-frequency control of units; -Reservoir/water flow control; - Continuous monitoring and data logging; -Alarm annunciation;and -Man-machine communication through visual display units (VDU)and console. In addition,the computer system will be capable of retrieval of technical data,design criteria,equipment characteristics and operating limitations,schematic diagrams,and operating/maintenance records of the unit. The Susitna Area Control Center wi 11 be capable of com- pletely independent control of the Central Dispatch Center in case of system emergencies.Similarly it will be possi- ble to operate the Susitna units in an emergency situation from the Central Di spatch Center,although thi s should be an unlikely operation considering the size,complexity,and impact of the Susitna generating plants on the system. The Watana and Devil Canyon plants will be capable of "black s t ar t "operation in the event of a complete black out or co 11 apse of the power system.The contro 1 systems of the two plants and the Susitna Area Control Center complex will be supplied by a non-interruptible power supply. (ii)Unit Control System The unit control system will permit the operator to initi- ate an entire sequence of actions by pushing one button at the control console,provided all preliminary plant condi- t ions have been fi rst checked by the operator,and system security and unit commitment have been cleared through the central dispatch control supervisor.Unit control will be designed to: -Start a unit and synchronize it with the system; -Load the unit; - Stop a unit; 12-83 Operate a unit as spinning reserve (runner in air with water blown down in turbine and draft tube);and - Operate as a synchronous condenser (runner in air as above). Unit control will be essentially possible at four different levels in a hierarchical organization of the control sys- tem: -Local control at the machine floor at individual turbine- generator control boards (primarily designed for commis- sioning and recommissioning of units).It will be the responsibility of the operator for performing individual control operations in the correct sequence,and monitor- ing instrumentation during local control operations. -Automatic ot semi-automatic system for start-up and shut-down of generat i ng uni t at the 1oca1 board at the machine floor. -Fully automatic system at Sdsitna Area Control (at Watana)for Watana and Dev i l Canyon power plants.(Thi s will be the normal Susitna operation.) -Fu lly automat i c system through superv i sory contro 1 from Central Dispatch Center at Willow.(Abnormal or emer- gency situations only). (iii)Computer-Aided Control System Traditionally,control systems for power plants in general, and hydro plants in particular,have utilized hard-wired switchboard type equipment (such as electro-mechanical relays,instruments,alarm annunciators,signal lamps, mimic diagram and control switches) for the operation, indication,alarm and control of the power plant.Such equipment was installed both at the plant local control area on the machine floor as well as in the control room, with a HmHed degreeofmi-niaturizati on of equipment .at the control desks in the control room. While traditional switchboard type equipment is still utilized at the local control level,supplemented with programmable control systems at many plants,the design of control and display equipment at modern central control rooms has been rapi dly mov l ng towards computer-ai ded or fully computer-controlled systems,especially where remote control operations are contemplated.One of the problems encountered by utilities is the necessity for operating personnel familiar with the conventional control systems to adapt to the new computer-aided control systems. In this context,establishing a modern computer-aided control 1 'I l "r 1 I -j 1 1 1 1 1 1 ) I -j l I I I 1 I) LJ 11 IJ system in the Alaska Power Authority electrical system for the Susitna Project complex should not pose any special problems for the adaption and training of operators. The computer-aided control system at the Susitna Area Control Center at Watana will provide for the following: - Data acquisition and monitoring of unit (MW,MVAR,speed, gate position,temperatures,etc.); Data acquisition and monitoring of reservoir headwater and t ail water 1eve1s; - Data acquisition and monitoring of electrical system voltage and frequency; - Load-frequency control; - Unit start/stop control; - Unit loading; -Plant operation alarm and trip conditions (audible and visual alarm on control board,full alarm details on VDU on demand); - General visual plant operation status on VDU and on giant wall mimic diagram; - Data logging,plant operation records; -Plant abnormal operation or disturbance automatic recording;and -Water management (reservoir control). The block diagram of the computer-aided control system is shown in Plate 34.The supervisory control and telemeter- i ng system and central dispatch center system det ai1s are described in Section 14. (iv)Local Control and Relay Boards Local boards will be provided at the powerhouse floor equipped with local controls,alarms,and indications for all unit control functions.These boards will be located near each unit and will be utilized mainly during testing, commissioning,and maintenance of the turbines and genera- tors.It will also be utilized as needed during emergen- cies if there is a total failure of the remote or computer- aided control systems. 12-85 The unit electrical protective relays will be mounted on re 1ay boards,wi th one board for each generator located near the unit.Differential protection will be provided for each generator and transformer.The differential zones of protection overlap will include all electrical equipment and connections.The 345 kV ol l-fi lled cable to the sur- face switchyard will be protected by a pilot-wire differen- tial protection relay.The overall differential relay protects the generators,transformers,and 345 kV cable. Sensitive ground fault stator protection will be provided for the generator.Protect i on wi 11 also be provi ded for negative phase sequence operation,loss of excitation, overvoltage,and under frequency.A phase impedance relay will provide backup protection for the generator. (v) Load-Frequency Control The load frequency control system will provide remote control of the output of the generator at Watana and Devil Canyon from the central dispatch control center through the supervi sory and computer-ai ded control system.at Watana. The bas i c method of load frequency control wi 11 use the plant error (differential)signals from the load d i sp'atch center and wi 11 allocate these errors to the power pl ant generators automatically through speed-level motors.Pro- vi si on wi 11 be made in the control system for the more advanced scheme of a closed-loop control system with digi- tal control to control generator pow~r. The control system wi 11 be designed to take into account the digital nature of the controller-timed pulses as well as the inherent time delays caused by the speed-level motor run-up and turbine-generator time-constants. The load set-point for the Susitna area generation will be set at the Central Di spatch Center.The summated power will be telemetered from the Susitna Area Control center to the Central Dispatch Center,from which the required ~~-~----~~---dtfferent+a-l--p+ant--g e ner-at-io n---(--'J-errorJL)-w-i-l--l-be--dete~mi-n ed--- and transmitted by the supervisory system to Susitna Area Control Center.From this point,the remaining functions for the automatic generation control will be carried out by the plant supervisory control systems to load the individ- ual generating units at Watana and Devi 1 Canyon. The unit will be automatically removed from load-frequency control for various conditions including failure of super- vi sory system,unit contro 11 er or computer'system, abnor- mally high plant frequency,unit shut-down,and dc power -I I 'j :! 1 l \ .1 J l 1 ) -_.._...•...._~._~ _I 1 ! 1 --j (l () Ii f ] !1 failure.When the unit is taken off automatic load-fre- quency control,it will be returned to manual load and frequency control by the operator at Watana Control room. (h)Station Service Auxiliary AC and DC Systems (i)Auxiliary AC System The station service system will be designed to achieve a re 1i ab1e and economi c di stri but ion system for the power plant and switchyard,in order to satisfy the following requirments: -Station service power at 480 volts will be obtained from two 2,000 kVA auxi 1i ary transformers connected direct ly to the generator circuit breaker outgoing leads of Units 1 and 3; -Surface auxiliary power at 34.5 kV will be supplied by two separate 7.5/10 MVA transformers connected to the generator leads of Units 1 and 3; -Station service power will be maintained even when all the units are shut down and the generator circuit breakers are open; - 100 percent standby transformer capaci ty wi 11 be available; - A spare auxiliary transformer will be maintained, connected to Unit 5; and -1181 ack st ar-t"capabi 1 ity wi 11 be provided for the power plant in the event of total failure of the auxiliary supply system,500 kW emergency diesel generators will be automatically started up to supply the power plant and switchyard with auxiliary power to the essential services to enable startup of the generators. The main ac auxiliary switchboard will be provided with two bus sections separated by bus-tie circuit breakers.Under normal operating conditions,the station-service load is divided and connected to each of the two end i ncomi ng transformers.In the event of failure of one end supply, the tie breakers will close automatically.If both end supplies fail,the emergency diesel generator will be automatically connected to the station service bus. Each unit will be provided with a unit auxiliary board supplied by separate feeders from the two bus sections of the main switchboard interlocked to prevent parallel opera- 12-87 tiona Separate ac swltchboards will furnish the auxiliary power to essential and general services in the power plant. The unit auxiliary board will supply the auxiliaries neces- sary for starting,running,and stoppi ng the generating unit.These supplies will include those to the governor and o i 1 pressure system,bearing oi 1 pumps,cooling pumps and fans,generator circuit breaker,excitation system,and miscellaneous pumps and devices connected with un i t operation. The station essential service supplies will include power- house sump pumps,drainage pumps,compressors for circuit breakers,and generator brakes,dc battery chargers,con- trol and metering devices,communications,fire pumps,and other miscellaneous essential power requirements. The station general supplies will include powerhouse light- ing, heating,ventilating and air-condltioning,elevators, cranes,machine shop and tools,and other miscellaneous pumps and general requirements. The 34.5 kV supply to the surface facilities will be dis- tributed from a 34.5 kV switchboard located in the surface control and administration building.Power supplies to the swltchyard,power intake,and spi llway as well as the 11 ght i ng systems for the access roads and tunnels wi 11 be obtained from the 34.5 kV switchboard. The unit auxiliary board will supply the auxiliaries neces- sary for starting,running,and stopping the generator-tur- bine unit.These supplies will include those to the gover- nor and oil pressure system, bearing oil pumps,cooling water pumps and fans,generator circuit breaker,excitation system,and miscellaneous pumps and devices connected with unit operation. ,_Ih,e_st,atjDn,._,e,s,s,entj_aJ~s,eLvjc,e_,s,upp_LLes~wjJJ_"j_ncJ,ude__p,ower.~.,." house sump pumps,drainage pumps,compressors for circuit breaker,air and generator brakes,dc battery chargers, control and metering devices,communications,fire protec- tion pumps,and other miscellaneous essential power requirements. The station general supplies will include powerhouse light- ing,heating,ventilating and air-conditioning,elevators, cranes,mach ine shop and too1s,and other mi sce 11 aneous pumps and general requirements. The 34.5 kV supply to the surface facilities will be dis- tributed from a 34.5 kV switchboard located in the surface 12-88 1 I l ! 1 I I ,l 1 I I l f ,,-__- ,I 1 1 'I .1 I j I 1 LJ \] control and administration building.Power supplies to the switchyard power intake,and spillway as well as the 1ight- i ng systems for the access roads and tunnels wi 11 be ob- tained from the 34.5 kV switchboard. The two 2000 kVA,15000/480 volt stations service transfor- mers and the spare transformer wi 11 be of the 3-phase, dry-type,sealed gas-filled design.The two 7.5/10 MVA, 15/34.5 kV transformers will be of the 3-phase oil-immersed OA!FA type. Emergency diesel generators,each rated 500 kW,will sepa- rately supply the 480 volt and 34.5 kV auxiliary switch- boards during emergencies.Both diesel generators will be located in the surface control building. An uninteruptib1e high security power supply will be pro- vided for the computer control system. (ii)DC Auxiliary Station Service System The dc auxiliary system will supply the protective relay- ing,supervisory,alarm,control,tripping and indication circuit in the power plant.The generator static excita- tion system will be started with "f lashinq"power from the de battery.It will also supply the emergency lighting system at critical plant locations. Separate duplicate lead-acid batteries for 125 volt dc will be provided in the powerhouse.The 48 volt battery supply for the supervisory and computer aided control system and microwave communications will be located in the surface control building. The main battery system will be supplied by double charging equipment consisting of a full wave rectifier system with regulated output voltage which normally will supply the continuous dc load in the system.The battery capacity will be suitable for an emergency loading based on a fail- ure of ac station service lasting 5 hours. (iii)IIB1ack Start ll Capability The Watana power plant will have a built-in capability of starting up a completely blacked-out power system in a very short time.Only a few basic requirements will have to be sat i sfi ed: -Sufficient water will be available in the reservoir for the minimum generation required for "bl ack st ar t"opera- tion; 12-89 -The governor oil system will have sufficient stored energy capable of operating the turbine wicket gates to full open position; -The generators wi l le be equipped with static exciters capable of being flash-started from the station battery system -Dc control power will be available for the startup cir- cuits. The above described emergency power requirements will not exceed about 200 kW for one unit and will be easily sup- plied from the emergency diesel generator.With the startup of a single unit,the complete power plant and switchyard auxiliary power will be immediately available, enabling all the units in the power plant to be started up sequentially within the hour. (i)Grounding System The power plant grounding system will consist of one mat under·the power plant,one mat under the transformer gallery,risers,and connection ground wires.Grounding grids will also be included in each powerhouse floor.The power plant grounding system will be connected to the swt tchyard groundi ng system by three 500 MCM copper ground conductors to mi ni mi ze the overall re's i st ance to ground.The grounding system will be designed to provide a ground resistance of 1 ohm or lower.All exposed metal part and neutral connect ions of generators and transformers will be connected to the ground i ng system for the purpose of protect i ng personnel and equipment from injury or damage. (j)Lighting System The lighting system in the powerhouse will be supplied from 480/ 208-120 volts llghting transformers connected to the general ac aux ill ary stat ion servi ce system.The l i ghtingsystem will be all _______~.t.luocescent__and_j_nc_andescentJj_xt_u~es_op_e~atj_n_g_on-l2Dv-OJt_s and a 11 outdoor type high pressure sodt um fi xtures operat i ng on 208 volts.The lighting level varies generally from 20 to 50 foot candles depending upon the powerhouse area;the higher levels will be at control areas.Adequate illumination will be provided on vertical switchboards with local lighting canopies. An emergency lighting system will be provided at the power plant and at the control room at all critical operating locations with an illumination level of 2 foot candles.The emergency lighting system will operate from a separate 120 volt ac circuit which, by means of automatic transfer switches,will be automatically connected to the 125 volt dc system upon failure of the ac system. I_........•.._- J 1 I 1 1 J 1 j [1 .1 IJ (k)Communications The power plant will be furnished with an internal communications system,including an automatic telephone switchboard system. A communication system will be provided at all powerhouse floors and galleries,transformer gallery,access tunnels and cable shafts, and structures at the power intake,draft tube gate area,mai n spillway,and dam. The communications system for the central dispatch control system, telemetering,supervisory and protective relaying system is de- scribed in Section 15. (1)Insulation Coordination and Lightning and Switching Surge Protection The electrical insulation and protective devices will be selected and coordinated to provide a safe margin of insulation strength above the maximum abnormal voltages permitted during lightning, switching,and short-circuit surges.The 1300 kV basic insulation level (BIL)specified for the transformer and other BIL values stated for the electrical equipment and connections are tentative and are subject to detailed study in the design stage of the pro- ject. In principle,lightning arresters will be mounted on or adjacent to all major electrical equipment having wound-type internal con- struct ion,and wi 11 be provi ded at the generator 15 kV termi na1s and the main transformer 345 kV terminals. 12.19 -Switchyard Structures and Equipment [J LJ 11 LJ (a)Single Line Diagram The e1ectri c system stud i es recommended a "breaker-and-a-ha lf" single line arrangement.This arrangement was recommended for reliability and security of the power system.Plate 61 shows the details of the switchyard single line diagram. (i)Control and Metering All control and metering functions are handled by the Watana control center.The Wi llow System Center can also initiate a control function through the Watana control cen- ter,thus allowing the system center considerable flexibil- ity in operating the total system. (ii)Relay Protection Relay protection for transmission lines is similar to that described in Section 14.5.In addition relay protection is provided for the 345 kV cable from the powerhouse to the 12-91 switchyard.This protection will consist of differential relays,and as a backup the overall differential protection zone of the generator and unit transformer relay wi 11 also include the 345 kV cable circuit. (b)Switchyard Equipment The number of 345 kV circuit breakers is determined by the number of elements to be switched such as lines or in-feeds from the powerhouse.Each breaker wi 11 have two di sconnect switches to allow safe maintenance. The auxiliary power for the switchyard will be derived from the generator bus vi a a 15 -34.5 kV transformer and 34.5 kV cable. The voltage wi 11 then be stepped down to 480 V for use in the swi tchyard. (c)Switchyard Structures and Layout The switchyard layout will be based on a conventional outdoor type desi gn.The desi gn adopted for thi s project wi 11 provi de a two level bus arrangement.This design is commonly known as a low station profile. The two level bus arrangement is desirable because it is less prone to extensive damage in case of an earthquake.It is also easier to maintain low level busses. Although the present studies are based on conventional switchyard layouts,it is recommended that SF6 gas-insulated equipment be considered in the design stage.For a more detailed description see Section 14. 12.20 -Project Lands Project lands acquired for the project will be the minimum necessary to construct access and site facilities,construct permanent facilities, to clear the reservoir,and to operate the project. A large amount of public land in the Watana area is managed by the Bureau of Land Management.There are 1arge blocks of pri vate Native Village Corporation Lands along the river.Other private holdings consist of widely scattered remote parcels.The state has selected much of the federal 1and in th is area and is expected to recei ve a patent. I ! I 1 l .1 I 1 .J~_l \ I I I ) I f 11.1 r 1 ..1 I'Il I II} [J iJ [J IJ LIST OF REFERENCES (1) Acres American Incorporated,Susitna Hydroelectric Project 1980-81 Geotechnical Report,prepared for the Alaska Power Authority, February 1982. (2)Barton,et al.,Engineering Classification of Rock Masses for the Design of Tunnel Support. I I I i1II 1 I "]lJ lJ j Calendar Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 TABLE 12.1:WATANA PEAK WORK FORCE AND CAMP/VILLAGE DESIGN POPULATION Camp/Village Yearly Peak Work Force Facilities Design 900 1000 1600 1760 2300 2530 2900 3200 3200 3520 3600 3970 3400 3740 2600 2860 1000 1100 200 220 TABLE 12.2:ROCKFILL AND EARTH DAMS IN EXCESS OF 500 FEET Dam Country Feet Rogun USSR 1,066 -lNurekUSSR1,040 Watana USA 885 Tehri India 856 Kishaw India 830 Sulak USSR 802 Mica Canada 794 Patia Colombia 787 Chicoasen Mexico 787 Chivor Colombia 778 Oroville USA 771 Esmeradla Colombia 754 Sayansk USSR 738 Keban Turkey 679 Altinkaya Turkey 640 New Melones USA 626 Don Pedro USA 614 Swift USA 610 Portage Mountain Canada 600 lNewBullardsBarUSA590.I Dartmouth Australia 590 -.J Okoy Turkey 590 Ayvacik Turkey 587 Takase Japan 577 '\ Hasan Ugurlu Turkey 574 INader Shah Iran 574 Gura Apelor Retezat Romania 568 Magarin Jordan 561 Charvak USSR 551 Boruca Costa Rica 548 Kremasta Greece 541 Trinity USA 538 Thomson Australia 530 Talbingo Australia 530 Tokujama Japan 528 LaGrande No.2 Canada 525 Palo Quemado S. America 525 IGrand Maison France 525 Sao Felix Brazil 525 Fierze Albania 519 Cougar USA 519 Yacambu Venezuela 519 Emborcacao Brazil 519 Einster.tal Cumberland Australia 510 Canales Spain 510 Narmata Japan 508 Goeschenenalp Switzer land 508 Salrajina Colombia 505 Gepatsch Austria 503 Foz do Areia Brazil 503 Tedorigawa Japan 503 Carter USA 500 f I '1 fl TABLE 12.3:SUMMARY OF DESIGN DATA FOR LARGE EMBANKMENT DAMS IN SEISMICALLY ACTIVE AREAS 11 Crest Ratio of Height Freeboard Width Core Width Upstream Downstream Dam Feet Feet Feet to Dam Height Slope Slope Watana (US)885 25* 35 0.50 2.4 2.0 Mica (C)794 26 111 0.45 2.25 2.0 fl Chicoasen (M)787 33 82 0.42 2.2 2.0 Oroville (US)771 22 80 0.34 2.6 2.0 f]Don Pedro (US)614 2.4 2.1 Ayvacik (T)587 17 50 0.34 2.5 1.8 11 Takase (J)577 17 46 0.40 2.6 2.1 Tedorigawa (J)503 13 40 0.31 2.6 1.85 Netzahualcoyotl (M)453 18 50 0.43 2.0 2.0 Iwaya (J)413 62 33 0.33 2.5 2.0 Kazurya (J)413 39 2.6 1.8 Narakura (J)410 16 39 0.56 2.7 2.7 Pyramid (J).(US)400 36 2.5 2.0 \)Tamahara (J)380 13 39 0.43 2.7 2.2 Seto (J)364 20 36 0.29 2.5 2.0 *Watana freeboard - normal maximum operations level to nominal crest (additional height allowed for seismic settlement) US - United States C -Canada M -Mexico T - Turkey J - Japan !J I \U lJ LJ I TABLE 12.4:'DAMS IN SEISMIC AREAS Jt UK!:.t ,K~UUJ'UH I .U" Core Crest Free-Crest Width Ratio Core Slopes Unified Seismic Height Length board Width Core at Base Width to of Core Classi-Liquid Plastic U/S Thick-D/S Thick-Treat-Under Name Country Activity (ft)(f't )(ftl)(ft )Type (f't )Dam Heiqht Zone fication Limit Limit ness (f't )ness (f't )Type ment Shells Watana USA H BB5 25:35 CV 440 0.50 0.25:1 SM 23 8 60 60 R CG R/UD Mica Canada L 794 2,600 26' 111 S 360 0.45 ------R CG A/UD Chicoasen Mexico H 787 1,640 33 82 CV 330 0.42 0.15:1 CL 40 20 25 25 CB CG A/UD Oroville USA L-M 771 .5,600 22 80 S 263 0.34 -GC -----CB - Ayvacik Turkey M-H 587 1,400 17 50 C 197 0.34 -CL --50 50 R CB R/UD Takase Japan M-H 577 1,200 17 46 CV 230 0.40 0.15:1 ----50 R -A/UD Palo Quemado S.Americe H 525 1,215 26 40 CV 295 0.56 0.25:1 ML 33 7.5 13 13 R CG R/UD Tedorigawa Japan M-H 503 1,380 13 40 CV 157 0.31 0.15:1 - --26 26 R -A/UD EI Infiernilla Mexico H 486 1,100 25 40 CV 164 0.34 0.15:1 CL 49 25 8 8 R CG A/UD Tarbela Pakistan M-H 469 9,000 18 40 S 262 0.56 -GW/SM ----A -A/UD Netza~ualcoyotl Mexico H 453 1,570 18 50 CV 197 0.43 0.15:1 ML/MH 50 20 -13 R CG A/U Mangla Pakistan H 453 3,400 32 41 S 230 0.51 -CL ---13 R CG A/UD Derbendi Khan Iraq M 443 1,460 33 56 CV 330 0.74 0.3:1 CH/CL 50 26 20 30 R -R/UD Tsengwen Taiwan H 436 1,440 33 33 CV 410 0.94 0.4:1 SM/GM 22 8 --R CG.R/UD Pueblo Viejo C.Americe H 436 820 49 43 CV 157 0.36 0.15:1 CL 41 19 23 23 R CG R/UD 8eas India M-H 435 6,400 3D.45 CV 131 0.30 0.1:1 CL 30 12 20 20 R -A/UD Alicura Argentina H 426 2,620 1~39 CV 275 0.65 0.3:1 CL 35 15 10 10 R -A/UD Ramga'i'ga India M-H 413 -22 39 CV 197 0.48 0.2:1 CL --98 79 R -A/UD Iwaya Japan H 413 1,200 62 33 C 138 0.33 ----33 65 R -R/UD Narakura Japan M-H 410 820 1~39 CV 230 0.56 0.2:1 ---20 49 R -A/UD Shimokotori Japan M-H 390 915 13.36 C 151 0.39 ----39 39 --R/UD Bao C.Amerd cs H 388 1,312 24 26 CV 184 0.47 0.2:1 CL 40 20 20 20 R -CB &CG Tamahara Japan H 380 2,000 13 39 CV 164 0.43 ----79 79 R CG R/UD Seto Japan H 364 1,120 13 36 C 105 0.29 ----39 39 R -R/UD Guri Venezuela L 361 1,970 20 36 CV 180 0.50 0.2:1 ML 50 15 5 6.5 R CG R/UD Impervious Core: cv -Central vertical C -Central very slightly sloped S -Sloping Foundation: R -Rock A -Alluvium D -Downstream U - Upstream CG -Consolidation grouting CB -Concrete block over rock ,----~....;~''':',... TABLE 12.5:GENERALIZED SURFICIAL STRATIGRAPHIC COLUMN AREA "0"AND RELICT CHANNEL [1 1 1,J [J [J [J lJ u Column C o E and F G H I and J Unit Surficial Outwash Alluvium & Fluvial Deposits Outwash Till/Water lain Till Alluvium Till Alluvium Estimated Thickness 0-5' 0-18' 12'average 0-15' 0-35' 15'average, 2-50' 12'average 0-40' >10'to 65' 20'average to 160' Description Boulders,organic silts and sands. Silty sand with some gravel and cobbles occasionally.Usually brown although becomes gray in limited areas.Thickest in northern portions of area,thickening southward,often absent near Susitna River. Sand with some silt,occasional gravel. Generally brown, found only along course of limited drainage channels formed in outwash "E".Generally sorted. Sand,silt,gravel and cobbles,partly sorted, with fragments sub-angular to rounded.Silt and sand lenses often present.Brown to gray brown with a cobble/boulder zone often present at the base of Unit "F".Contact between "E" and "F"is often poorly defined. Clayey,silty sand,usually gray,often plastic.Contains cobbles and gravel in many areas.Occasionally present as a lacustrine deposit showing laminations and/or varves. Generally a till deposited through or near standing water. Sand,silt,gravel,partly to well sorted. Often absent between Units "I"and "G". Unit represents period of melting producing alluvium/outwash between these deposits. Appears as narrow bands representing channel fillings.ThicKest in western portion of the area. Poorly sorted sand,silt,gravel and cobbles, occasionally with clay.Generally gray to gray brown.Continuity uncertain due to lack of information at depth.Silt or sand layer 2 inches -6 inches thick often found in center of Unit "I".Base unit on top of bedrock,except in buried channel.Contact between "I"and "J"often poorly defined. Sand,gravel,cobbles,boulders,few fines, permeable.Found only in bottom of buried channel.Top at 292 feet extending to rock at 454 feet. Note:Letters used to define units are arbitrary and were used for correlation purposes.Two letters may define parts of the same unit. TABLE 12.6:RING FOLLOWER GATES DESIGN YEAH OF PROJECT LOCATION SIZE (IN.)HEAD (FT)INITIAL OPERATION (1)New Melones California 96 607 1979 (2)New Melones California 72 591 1979 (3)Portage Mountain Canada 84 550 1967 (4)Hungry Horse Montana 96 495 1952 (5)Yellowtail Dam Montana 84 470 1967 (6)Trinity Dam California 84 450 1962 (7)Grand Coulee Washington 102 354*1940 (8) Glen Canyon Colorado 96 337 1965 (9) Green Mountain Colorado 102 261 1943 *Maximum static head;maximum operating head - 250 feet. I ·1 TABLE 12.7:PRELIMINARY UNIT DATA 1 -GENERAL DATA -Number of Units •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••6 -Nominal Unit Output 170 MW fl - Headwater Levels: --normal maximum •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••El ,2185 --minimum El.2045 -Tailwater Levels: --mlnlmum ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••El. 1452 --normal ....•.••...•.•..•...••.••.......••.•...El. 1455 --maXlmum El. 1475 2 -TURBINE DATA -Type ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••Vertical Francis - Rated Net Head ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••680 feet -Maximum Head -Minimum Head 728 feet 576 feet [] -Full Gate Output: --at rated head 250,000 hp --at maximum head ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••275,000 hp --at minimum head 195,000 hp - Best Gate Output ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••85 percent full -Full Gate Discharge at Rated Head •••••••••••••••3560 cfs - Speed •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••225 rpm -Specific Speed 32.4 -Runner Discharge Diameter •••••••••••••••••••••••132 in -Runaway Speed •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••400 rpm -Cavitation Coefficient (sigma)••••••••••••••••••0.088[1 -Centerline Distributor E1.1422 IJ 3 -GENERATOR DATA - Type ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••Vertical Semi-Umbrella [] - Rated Output -Power Factor 190 MVA 0.90 u -Voltage •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••15 kV - Synchronous Speed •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••225 rpm -Inertia Constant (H)*•••••••••••••••••••••••••••3.5 MW/sec/MVA - Flywheel Effect (WR 2)*••••••••••••••••••••••••••57 x 10 6 Ib-ft 2 -Heaviest Lift 780,000 Ib *Including turbine TABLE 12~8:ASSUMED PROPERTIES FOR STATIC ANALYSES OF WATANA DAM 1 MatenaI K Kur n Rf Kb m C Ko CORE: --Soft(1)140 200 300 .8 .6 60 .8 0 35 0 .43 --Stiff(2)140 700 800 .35 .8 280 .2 0 35 0 .43 TRANSIT IoN(3) 145 1300 1500 .4 .72 900 .22 0 35 6 .43 SHELLS (4) 145 1800 2000 .4 .67 1300 .16 0 35 6 .43 where: =Unit weight,pcf K =Modulus nun~er,ksf 1;1Kur=Elastic unloading modulus number,ksf n =Modulus exponent Rf =Failure ratio Kb =Bulk modulus number,ksf m =Bulk modulus exponent C =Cohesion,psf =Friction angle,degrees =Decrease in friction angle per log cycle increase in 3'degrees Ko =Earth pressure coefficient ~ Note: Values taken from Duncan et al.,1980,"Strength,Stress-Strain and Bulk Modulus Parameters for Finite Element Analyses of Stress and Movements in Soil Masses,"Report No.UCB/GT/8o-o1,University of California,Berkeley. (1)MicaCteek Dam Cote,2 percent wet of optimum (2) Mica Creek Dam Core, 2 percent dry of optimum (3)Oroville Dam silty sandy gravel (4)Oroville Dam Shell -Amphibolite gravel ..j I II il TABLE 12.9:WATANA DAM -CREST ELEVATION AND FREEBOARD .m SO Year River Inflow Storm Normal maximum reservoir elevation 2185 Storm surcharge 6[J Still water elevation Wave runup allowance Dry freeboard allowance Elevation top of core Roadway over core Minimum crest elevation 2191 6) __3_) 2200 3 2203 1 an 10,000 Probable Year Storm Maximum Flood 2185 2185 8 17 2193 2202 6 NIL 2199 2202 3 3 2202 2205 [j Governing elevation for crest of main dam Highest still water level to be 2 feet above fuse plug pilot channel Sill of pilot channel in fuse plug 2205 2200 [J u u u Note: The above elevations do not include allowances for static settlement and seismic slumping. TABLE 12.10:RECENT HIGH HEAD FRANCIS TURBINES Ii:) i 1 Year of Head Output Speed Specl.fl.c Speed Number Plant Order (ft)(hp) (rpm)(Ns) 1 Albi 1972 1141 49,100 750 25.1 :-12AltoAnchicaya1970 1312 158,000 450 22.6 3 Big Creek 1976 737 50,600 450 26.4 4 El Chocon 1971 192 274,000 88.3 64.7 5 Hendrik-Verwoerd 1972 225 137,000 136.4 57.9 6 Estreito 1970 208 239,000 112.5 69.6 7 Grand Coulee III 1973 285 808,000 72 55.3 8 Grand Coulee IV 1973 285 938,000 85.7 70.9 9 Grimsel II 1974 1502 142,000 750 30.2 i 1 10 Harspranget V 1974 338 629,000 107.1 58.6 11 Hermillon 1971 535 82,300 333 37.1 12 Inga II 1972 205 239,000 107.1 67.5 13 Kargamakis 1970 443 185,000 214 45.3 14 Langsan 1972 590 70,500 428 39.1 1-115LaSuassaz1970 679 109,000 333 31.7 16 LG-2 1975 450 454,000 133 43.2 I· 17 Libby 1970 300 163,000 128.6 41.5 18 Loentsch 1970 1178 54,200 750 25.3 I 1 19 Magisano 1972 1215 52,800 750 24.0 20 Malpaso 1974 313 293,000 128.6 52.9 21 Marimbondo 1972 236 248,000 100 53.8 22 Mica 1975 560 595,000 128.6 36.4 23 Mitt a 1971 666 132,000 333.3 35.7 -J24NewMelones1974 460 205,000 171.4 36.4 25 Nurek 1970 754 416,000 200 32.6 26 Oldan 1972 827 92,400 500 34.3 27 Passo Fundo 1972 853 151,000 300 25.3 I28Porjus1971 195 323,000 83.3 65.0 I 29 Peace River 1971 450 410,000 150 36.9 30 Reza Shah-Kabir 1970 541 373,000 166.7 39.0 31 Ritsem 1973 476 442,000 166.7 49.8 32 Revelstoke 1977 427 664,000 112.5 47.2 !J33Salas19'70 862 73,000 500 28.9 34 SaIto Osorio 1972 236 212,000 120 59.7 35 Sarelli 1973 1149 65,700 750 28.7 36 Sirikit 1972 277 202,000 125 49.7 I 'j37 Sodusu II 1973 1246 55,200 600 19.0 38 Tumut 3 1971 530 379,000 187.5 45.3 39 Ust-Ilim 1972 296 328,000 125 58.5 40 Verbano II 1970 932 84,200 500 28.1 41 Waldeck II 1970 1104 295,000 375 32.0 42 Yarnvagsforsen 1973 278.8 72,900 214.3 50.8 !'I I . I J ) I 1 \ '"-, '"~ \ ~ - C\l o..... """ o CO """ w 0 >0:C\J ::::>~~Ut-= LL Z ~0 (!) Z C/)Z 0 -i=0:~<l:W 0 >>0: U")LU --l 0 >-LU e::{l- ll::Z ..JLU....e::{U <l:I-~0 ~e::{ 0 0 ?>~<l:..JLU«:J:I- 0I- 0 (1) """ o U") U") o """U") (£OIX S.::IO)3EHH1HOSIO o 0 0 ID """C\J o CO o Q I r-- '~--'L--.J ---'~I --------' SPILLWAY1.1 SERVICE OUTLETS +MAIN L LLO +SERVICE OUTLETS LOW LEVEL OUTLET (LLO]LOWER D.T. ONLY2DIVERSIONTUNNELS (D.T.) FINAL CREST ELEVATION \ NORMAL MAXIMU':'L\ OPERATING LEVEL 2210 ~i-L2185 ._ 2130 -=-./ //./o_--r o 1-----.//~--~--.,.-..,//~ 100 YR.FLOOD \-EVEL7 ,f"'-1 2150 \.-?RY SEQUENCE WET SEQUENCE 1~50.//I L POWER INTAKE /'~1938 INUNDATED //1865 J 1810 No. OF UNITS DAM CONSTRUCTION SrQUENCEV ~AVAILABLE. 222334 IJ I I I I I D 1660 /"--WATER SURFACE ELEVATION (JULY- DEC.) NORMAL POWER....-/(AVERAGE YEAR)OPERATIONU/S COFFERDAM-100 YR. FLOOD LEVEL 1545 i\-: 50 YR. FLOOD TEVEL 1460 I I 2000 2300 2100 2200 ,..: u,-z 1900 0 ~>w 1800...Jw 1700 1600 1500 1400 AVAILABLE 1 DISCHARGE FACILITIES DDJDJDJDJDJDJ I I I I I I I I I I I I I./WETTEST SEQUENCE RECORD....,: :REyORDED '1"1-1 ,.I L,DRIEST SEQUENCE7rei~io I I RECORDED I • I I I :1:!"1 I ,ri,I I I I I I I : I I I J t,ei --:j.J.,I r-'. ~I I . L,I II.1 !III I .., I ' I '-'I I r ~/~EQUIRED DOWNSTREAM AVERAGE MONTHLY~I L.~I • I FLOW-TYPICAL INFLOW-TYPICAL I I II I .., I ..,I • I .-r i,~I L~,I 1....;",I !I I -.I 1:=t.1:.:.L.'!-I I I I I I in .........,.::.~...:r...~:=.:r.-I •....i 35000 30000 25000 ~ ~ z 20000 0 i=:; w 15000...Jw 10000 5000 0 19BB 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 WATANA RESERVOIR FILLING SEQUENCE FIGURE 12.2 L-~L ~ '--------L.-..-.i ______.-.I --, ~_--1 161412108 MONTHS 642 -, 1\ \ ~ .\WET EAR \ V 1\ \ 1\ \ \ -_..-._........_--...-- 1900 2300 2100 2200 1500 1700 1800 1600 2000 MONTHS MJJASONO JFMAMJJA 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 )...........r-. 1\ \ ) 1\ 1\WET Y AR \ 1\ \/1\ \J \7 2100 2200 2300 1800 1900 2000 1500 1700 1600 MONTHS J F M A M J J A SON 0 J F M"A M J J A 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 -,, \ \~~~ '\r WE YEAR \ \\~AVE AGE .: MON HLY-' \\ \i\\/\,I, I I 1,II I ! / 2300 1800 1700 1600 2100 1900 2200 1500 po 2000 u, JANUARY START MAY START WATANA RESERVOIR EMERGENCY DRAW DOWN SEPTEM8ER START FIGURE 12.3 • -'--L-r--, ~:.-.....----l I ~I II T 1 T ! .....~~lo.."'01 1 r-r~.....1 ~B~RSI.MI~!: I---+---+l~~~~~~I r-...'~I l I ~c-I'--..~~<,/-OT;rER ~APIDS MIC~~~i II:!...~~~I'~l I I ~++~~f-+-+-...L--H+!.t-++--+--+--+----4~-1-~-+-I--~ I I""..."'.........~~r\.'1 I 1 .....MANIC 3I I "4 ...'"..........'"Ill.I!'\\.1 1/I GULL ISLA~D~""I i'~~I "'I-....~",;+-....~\'""'~~-'-l-+++d4-++-I--+-+---I+-~I-4--+-+--+----I I I 1 :~ro-o~1()~"~~~~I -~HAND C.HURCHI~L ~ALLS'"V f~K ~I ro-oi'.I '1\~~r'\I I •I 1I I i'..I ~I""~IIlr'"""'IIl/m+++-+-H WATANA - I SAINT LAWRENCE iii ~~~l"'...1\1'-'~~COMPOSITE CURVE AREA D I- I 1LO:WER:.NOTCH'Il """I ....~L\l"~S:::r--.../MACTAQUAC I f I I:I ~~I I ~I~~~"".....r-, l I I I I~,,::~~....I'~":~~ I I I I I I ~:~I",~~~~..... :l I I 1 I l I~·I ~,t\~~....I-.r..."-.r-, I ::I I :I I l'"I ",~~ro..t'-..r--.~ I :I:I I I I I r--r--,r-,~~"-:.~r-o. ~: I I I I I I :I ....-r-;r-,~:"'~~~l ..l]I I I I !:.........::::~<,~~ !:I:1 I !l ""1C ~ U.S.STANDARD SIEVE SIZE 21N.IIN.3/4IN.l/2IN.NO.4 NOJO NO.20 NO.40No.60 NO.lOO NO.200100 90 80 70 I- % C!) i;;60 jc >-CIll It:!50 IIJ Z &&. t-40z IIJo 0: ~30 20 10 0 200 100 10 1.0 0.1 GRAIN SIZE IN MILLIMETERS 0.01 0.001 WATANA COMPARISON OF GRAIN SIZE CURVES FOR VARIOUS CORE MATERIALS FIGURE 12.4 • '_,__c:=L-...---...--1 u.s.Standard Sieve Openings In Inchlll U.S. Standard Sieve Numbers Hydrameter -s: til Q) ~60Htt++-+-+-+--I\:¥~~~~~~~'H+H~~~~~~~~~~ct'f-::.p.H~~~-.2" ~~~~~'W{"I "'~"'I " "I ''' '' '' I '~~~~~~~~~~....~..................,......0:::: ::: :::::::::::::::. ... \-,."'J"'N~'}j,;;.,J>'~'"'I:;~~:::I:J:I::I:::~:"I""I"~~~~~~;K~:\:"'1-.1'v-,"N '"I'-I~~h'. : :..: , .:::::::::::::::::::::.,"J "'~----- - -.----------_- 0 10 20 30 ~ CI> '0 40 :it >. .Q... 50 III..... 0 0 (,) 60 -C III<.>.. 70 IIIll. 80 90 200 270 I 801004020104I3/4 1/23/8 50 10 5 I 0.5 01 0.05 0.01 O.llO5 0001 100 ~~~........"......".'...,..~·''';;;;;;3::02''····~... ,..,...:.~..::;;gg;;g ;~g ;;~~::: 3 2 11/2 100 12 9 6 \&;~~~:i~m~~~I;g rn: ~..;r'~"'.:.:.:F';::I'~~t-<f'I:~~~~~~~~ I"'iJ''';.''';..'';.·'1.,!{I"~'i\.~::::I::::I'::: ~~~~~IIIK'·I ··f ··f ·:·~··~:: :l : :~:: : I : ::I : : : : I : :: : :~·~~~~~~0:0:~......'.............-......::::.::::::::::.:::::::.. ~~~~K~~'\.Nf;:;:.:;:::::: ~~~~PkN~~~~ I ",'~'''''.'1\.'"'"~-N"J ·I···~·.··.I..·.:.':."-\~.~·"tr,'{"''\t ~~~:::::F::: :;..: 0:-,""' 500 ~I:m 80 11II I I I l\:~sfs;s(~~~fJ;;;;I::'; 90 III I I I I ~,(p~);'Jl-<'}-<'}-<"\Min:I:::r......_ 0 1000 100 hi i I •ifIt'I".";i1.q'K'''''~'''''''''JO\i''NJ;;;;:i",ns;;ae:\I \j ".....\:\],11"----- SOlLDERS I COBBLES GRAVEL Coarse I Fine SAND Medium I Fine FINES Silt Sizes WATANA REQUIRED GRAIN SIZE CURVES MAIN DAM FIGURE 12.5 m "--~,-'--L~_ i: II l,).. ~ -.t= CII ~ ~.. 4Il '"L-aoo 90 QOOIIOO00050.010.05 200 2'70 Hydrometer QI eo 10040 0.5 20104 510 U.S.Standard Sieve Numbors 50 3 2 11/2 I 3/4 1/2 3/8 100500 U.S.Standard Sieve Openings In Inche. 12 9 6 11""'00. .---.---._- K II I I 0 )~ t--r-.85 %L No.4 10 )"""i-; r-,20 <, 1'.1'-30 r-, <,40 ) <, 45%L No.200 !SO ) t'-,,- <, I",,, t-, I- ) t-, r-,10 ) <, r.........80 .........t-...... .0 1000 90 100 70 30 20 10 80 ..~50 u:: >. .Q -s: 01 Gi 3:60 -<:~40... Q1 a. BOULDERS COBBLES GRAVEL Coarse I Fine Medium SAND Fine FINES Silt Sizes G:2.71 WATANA COMPOSITE GRAIN SIZE CURVE -BORROW SITE D FIGURE 12.6 [Ai] ( ( [) IJ iIiit (!J)N~~\I 35\18 o <D o I ootom oo om oo,.: eo oo <Xl l'- oo N l'- oq <D<D oo o <D oo... III oo '"... oo <D '" oo d '" oo '"'" oo ~ oo ~ oo <D ao r I 600 1..__1 I.J 580 11 ·1Ii I.j () I- lJJ lJJ (1 LL I lJ Cl <! lJJ :::t: I- lJJ Z 740 720 700 680 660 640 620 115%GENERA OR RATED POWER / ~ RESERVOIR EL.218~7 /------V // / /~WEIGHTED A I/ERAGE HEAD / I / 1/~INIMUM DECEMB l::R HEAD / Vfe!l-170 MWI // BEST EFFI(IENCV-!FULL GATE / / RESERVOIR EL.2045...,--7 -- 100 120 140 160 UNIT OUTPUT- MW 180 200 220 WATANA-UNIT OUTPUT FIGURE 12.8 9Ot-------+------+--~~-_+_----_+_----_I_-___4 --en IL. 70 I------I--'-------I-----_+_-----f__---::~--+_-__I3000 8 >-uzw (3 ii:80I-----~!:...----_1_----_+_-----f__----+_-__I4ooo IL.w Wz ~:::> I- ) 'I w Cla::<t :I: Uen is I- r------+-------I-----::;;;.,..e::.--+-----+-----+----12000~ t-~tIZ---+-----+-----I------+-----_+_---1I000 40,000 80POO 120POO 160,000 200,000 TURBINE OUTPUT (HP) 24OPOO I ] U WATANA -TURBINE PERFORMANCE (AT RATED HEAD) I ) FIGURE 12.9 , 9• N S =950/v'li (USSR RECOMMENDED UPPER LIMIT I 2• 19• .18 .1 3• .41 , .40 .27 .~~ .26 25 .3 • WATANA -0•23 15 • 1I DEVIL CANYON "0 \•22 .11 •~3 24 31 ••13 "29 16 .32 <, N.17 20 ;9 .836,42 • •7 ·21 ,,5 •~I~l ~"28 .........r--- 1600 FRANCIS TURBINES SPECIFIC SPEED EXPERIENCE CURVE FOR RECENT UNITS 8070 FIGURE 12.}0 50 60 SPECIFIC SPEED (N S ) -403020 1000 r-' (j 1400 I) I J 1200 400 i ).) 200 \] II IJ I ) I- W Wu, C 800 <t W ::I: I- Wz 600 [J ()(J (\lJ U jl 13 -DEVIL CANYON UEVELOPMENT This section describes the various components of the Devil Canyon development,including diversion facilities,emergency release facili- ties,main dam,primary outlet facilities,reservoir,main and emer- gency spillway,saddle dam,the power intake,penstocks,and the power- house complex,including turbines,generators,mechanical and electri- cal equipment,switchyard structures,and equipment and project lands. A description of permanent and temporary access and support facilities is also included. 13.1 -General Arrangement The evolution of the Devil Canyon general arrangement is described in Section 10.The Devil Canyon reservoir and surrounding area is shown on Plate 4U.The site layout in relation to main access facilities and camp fac il ities is Shown on Pl ate 72. A more detailed arrangement of the various site structures is presented in Plate 41. The Dev il Canyon darn wi 11 form a reservo ir approximate 1y 26 miles long with a surface area of 7,8UO acres and a total volume of 1,092,00U acre feet at a normal maximum operating elevation of 1455.The operating level of the Devil Canyon reservoir is controlled by the tailwater level of the upstream Watana development.During operation,the reser- voir will be capable of being drawn down to a minimum elevation of 1400. The dam will be a thin arch concrete structure with a crest elevation of 1463 and max imum height of 645 feet.The dam wi 11 be supported by mass concrete thrust blocks on each abutment.On the left bank,the lower bedrock surface will require.the construction of a substantial thrust block.Adj acent to th is thrust block,an earth-and rockfi 11 saddle dam will provide closure to the left bank. The saddle dam will be a central core type generally similar in cross section to the Watana dam.The dam will have a maximum height above foundation level of approximately 245 feet. During construction,the reservoir will be diverted around the main construction area by means of a single 30-foot-diameter concrete-lined diversion tunnel on the left bank of the river. A power intake,located on the right bank,will comprise an approach channel in rock leading to a reinforced concrete gate structure.From the intake structure four 20-foot-diameter concrete-lined penstock tun- nels will lead to an underground powerhouse complex housing four Francis turbines each with a rated capacity of 15U MW ana four semi- umbrell a type generators each rated at 180 MVA.Access to the power- house complex will be by means of an unlined access tunnel approxi- mately 3,200 feet long as well as by a YoU-foot deep vertical access 13-1 shaft.Turbine discharge will be conducted to the river by means of a single 38-foot-diameter tailrace tunnel leading from a surge chamber downstream from the powerhouse cavern.Compensation flow pumps at the power plant will ensure suitable flow in the river between the dam and tailrace tunnel outlet portal.A separate transformer gallery just up- stream from the powerhouse cavern will house six single-phase 15/345 KV transformers.The transformers will be connected by 345-KV,single- phase,oil-filled cable through a cable shaft to the switchyard at the surface. The primary outlet facility will consist of seven individual outlet conduits located in the lower part of the main dam.These will be designed to discharge all floods with a frequency of 1:50 years or less.Each outlet conduit will have a fixed-cone valve similar to those prov ided at Watana to min imize undes irab 1e nitrogen supersatura- tion in the flows downstream. Flows resulting from floods with a fre- quency greater than 1: 50 years but 1ess than 1:10,000 years wi 11 be discharged by a chute spillway on the right bank,also similar in design to that provided for Watana.An emergency spillway on the left bank will provide sufficient additional capacity to permit discharge of the PMF without overtopping the dam. 13.2 -Site Access (a) Roads At Devil Canyon the main access road will enter the site from the south.A low level bridge crossing the Susitna River will be located just upstream of the dam.In addition to the main access, several auxiliary roads will be required to the camp,village, tank farm,borrow sites,and construction areas.These roads, with the exception of temporary haul roads,are shown on Pl ate 72. The construction roads will be gravel-surfaced roads 40 feet wide with small radius curves.Grades will be 1 imited to 10 percent. IVlajor cut and fill work will be avoided where possible.A gravel PClclLapRr()xjm(J:t§.Jy ...t.tve feet .tbjcK,.wjJJ._.b.erequjJ"ed._.forthe roads.This will provide a drivable surface and also will protect against settlements and heaving caused by localized permafrost. (b)Bridges The existing low level bridge upstream of the dam will be used during abutment excavation.Once construction of the cofferdams is complete,the crests of these structures will be used for river crossing. After compl et ion of the main dam,the crest of the dam wi 11 pro- vide access across the Susitna River. 13-2 j 1 "J 1 ~ci j I I I l J i] f1 I } [] (c)Airstrip The permanent airstrip at the Watana site,approximately 30 miles west of the Dev i 1 Canyon site,will be used for the Dev il Canyon development.The airstrip will be capable of accommodating both C-130 Hercules aircraft;as well as small jet passenger aircraft. (d) Access Tunnel An access tunnel wi 11 be provided to the underground powerhouse and associated works.The main access tunnel will be unlined and approximately 35 feet wide and 28 feet high.The tunnel will be utilized during construction as the main construction access. Ad its wi 11 br-anch off from th is tunnel to other areas of under- ground development. ( e)Access Shaft [1 ] !l (1 LJ lJ I 1U A vertical 20-foot diameter access shaft with an elevator will also be provided for access to the underground facil ities.The shaft will be sited at the end of the access tunnel. 13.3 -Site Facilities (a)General The construction of the Devil Canyon development will require var- ious facilities to support the construction activities throughout the entire construction period.Following construction,the pl anned operat ion and maintenance of the development will be centered at the Watana development;therefore,minimum facilities at the site will be required to maintain the power facil ity. As described for Watana (Section 12),a camp and construction village will be constructed and maintained at the project site. The camp/village will provide housing and living facilities for 2,300 people during construction.Other site facil ities include contractor's work areas,site power,services,and communications. Items such as power and communications and hospital services will a 1so be requ ired for construct ion operat ions independent of camp operations. su i ld tnps used for the Watana development will be used where pos- sible in the Devil Canyon development.Current planning calls for dismantling and reclaiming the site after construction.Electric power will be provided from the watana development.The salvaged building modules used from the Watana camp/village will be retro- fitted from fuel oil heating to electric heat. (b) Temporary Camp and Village The proposed location of the camp/village'is on the south bank of the Susitna River between the damsite and Portage Creek,approxi- mately 2.5 miles southwest of the Devil Canyon dam (see Plate 72). 13-3 The south side of the Susitna was chosen because the main access road is from the south.South-facing slopes will be used for the camp/village location. The camp will consist of portable woodframe dormitories for single status workers with modular mess halls,recreational buildings, bank,post office,fire station,warehouses,hospital,offices, etc.The camp wi 11 be a si ng1 e status camp for appr oxtmately 1,780 workers. The village,designed for approximately 170 families,will be grouped around a service core containing a school,gymnasium, stores,and recreation area. The two areas will be separated by approximately 1/2 mile to pro- vi de a buffer zone between areas.The hospital wi 11 serve both the main camp and the village. This camp location will be separated from the work areas by approximately a mile.Travel time to the work .area will generally be less than 15 minutes. The camp/village will be constructed in stages to accommodate the peak work force as presented in Table 13.1.Table 13.1 also pre- sents the camp/vi 11 age facil ity desi gn numbers.The facil iti es have been designed for the peak work force plus 10 percent for "turnover ",The "tur-nover"includes provisions or buffers for overlap of workers and vacations.The conceptual layouts for the camp/village are presented in Plates 73 and 74. (i)Site Preparation Both the camp and the vi 11age areas wi11 be cleared in select areas of topsoil,and the topsoil will be stockpiled for future use in reclamation operations.At the village site,selected areas will be left with trees and natural vegetation intact. Both the mai n camp and the vil 1age5tt~grejn weJJ-c:Irainecl land with natural slopes of 2 to 3 percent.A granular pad varying in thickness up to 8 feet will be placed in select- ed areas at the main camp to provide a uniform working sur- face for erection of the high density housing and service buildings as well as serving as a protective barrier for underlying permafrost.In the village area,a granular pad will be placed only as necessary to support the housing units and to provide a suitable base for construction of the temporary towncenter buildings. All roadways within the camp/village areas will be flanked by roadside ditches,with CMP culverts carrying water across the intersections.In general,drainage will be through a surface network of ditches.Peripheral ditches will intercept surface flow from adjacent non-cleared land and divert it around the camps. 13 ..4 l l l I I l 1 J I J 1 l ! .) 'I (1 I I ( J [1 LJ Runoff will ultimately be directed to existing drainage channels leading to the Susitna River for the village and the main camp. (ii)Facilities Construction camp buildings will consist largely of trai- ler-type factory-built modules assembled at site to provide the various facilities required.The modules will be fab- ricated with heating,lighting,and plumbing services, interior finishes,furnishings,and equipment.Trailer modules will be supported on timber cribbing or blocking approximately two feet above grade. Larger structures,such as the central utilities building, gym,and warehouses,wi 11 be pre-engi neered,steel-framed structures with metal cladding. The 1arger structures wi 11 be erected on concrete-s1 ab foundations.The slab will be cast on a non-frost suscep- tible layer at least equal to the thickness of the annual freeze/thaw 1ayer.Heated permawa1ks wi 11 connect the majority of the buildings and dorms. The various buildings in the camp are identified on Plate 73. (c)Site Power and Utilities (i)Power A 345 kV transmission line and substation will be in service during the construction activities.Two transfor- mers will be installed at the substation to reduce the line voltage to the desired voltage levels.One of these trans- formers will be the same used during the Watana develop- ment. Power will be sold to the contractors by the Power Author- ity.The peak demand during construction is estimated at 20 MW for the camp/village and 4 MW for construction requirements for a total of 24 MW.The distribution system for the camp/village will be 4.16 kV. (i i)Water The water supply system will serve the entire camp/village and selected contractor's work areas.The water supply system will provide for potable water and fire protection. The estimated peak population to be served wi 11 be 2,300 (1,780 in the camp and 520 in the village). 13-5 A system of pumps and constructed storage reservoirs will provide the necessary system demand capacity. The principal source of water will be the Susitna River. The water wi 11 be treated in accordance with the Env iron- mental Protection Agency (EPA)primary and secondary re- quirements. -f I I Chemical toilets located around the site will be serviced by sewage trucks,which will discharge directly into the sewage treatment plant. At the village,an aerated collection basin will be instal- led to collect the sewage. The sewage will be pumped from this collection basin through a force main to the sewage treatment pl ant. Wastewater One waste water collection and treatment system will serve the camp/village.Gravity flow lines with lift stations will be used to collect the wastewater from all of the camp and village facilities.The "in-camp"and "invillage"col- lection systems will be run through the permawalks and utilidors so that the collection system will always be pro- tected from the elements. The sewage treatment system will be a biological system with lagoons.The system will be designed to meet Alaskan state water law secondary treatment standards.The lagoons and system will be modular to allow for growth and contrac- tion of the camp/village. The location of the treatmen plant is shown on Plates 72 ancf 73~·--TI'IeT6ca-ri6n·was ·seTecfecr-tcY-avoio I..Hfnec·essat-y odors in the camp. The water distribution system will be by a ductile iron pipe system contained in ut i l idors as described in Section 12.3. (iii) The contractors on the site will require office,shop and general work areas.Partial space required by the contractors for fabrf- cat ion shops,storage or warehouses,and work areas wi 11 be lo- cated on the south side of the Susitna River near the owner/ manager's office.Additional space required by the contractor will be in the area between the access road and the camp. The sewage plant will discharge its treated effluent to the Susitna River.All treated sludge will be disposed of in a solid waste sanitary landfill. (d)Contractor's Area 1~1I! ,) [I [J 11 I r () 13.4 -Diversion (a) Genera 1 Diversion of the river flow during construction will be through a single 30-foot-diameter concrete-l ined diversion tunnel on the south bank.The tunnel will have a horseshoe-shaped cross-section and be 1,490 feet in length.The diversion tunnel plan and pro- file is shown on Plate 54. The tunnel is designed to pass a flood with a return frequency of 1:25 years routed through the Watana Reservoir.The peak flow that the tunnel will discharge will be 37,800 cf s .The maximum water surface elevation upstream of the cofferdam will be Eleva- tion ~44.A rating curve is presented in Figure 13.1. LJ II,._..•.....; IJ ]I,.1 (b)Cofferdams The upstream cofferdam will consist of a zoned embankment founded on a closure dam (see Pl ate 54).The closure dam will be con- structed to Elevation 915 based on a low water elevation of 910 and will consist of coarse material on the upstream side grading to finer material on the downstream side.When the closure dam is completed,a cut-off may be constructed to minimize seepage into the main dam excavation if required.Further investigations in later design studies will be necessary to define the type and properties of river alluvium before a cut-off system can be designed. Cut-offs commonly used for cofferdams are grout curtains and slurry walls.Whichever method is used will be constructed through the closure dam and alluvium material.The abutment areas will be excavated to sound rock prior to placement of any coffer- d am mater ia 1. The cofferdam,from tlevation ~15 to 947,will be a zoned embank- ment consist ing of a central core,fine and coarse upstream and downstream filters,and rock and/or gravel shells with riprap on the upstream face. The downstream cofferdam will be a similar closure dam constructed from tlevation ~60 to 895,with a cut-off to bedrock,if required. The upstream cofferdam crest elevation will have a 3 foot free- board allowance for settlement and wave runup.Under the proposed schedule,the Watana development will be operational when this cofferd am is constructed . Thermal stud ies conducted show that discharge from the Watana reservoir wi 11 be at 34°F when pass ing through Dev i 1 Canyon.Therefore,an ice cover wi 11 not form up- stream of the cofferd am,and no freeboard allowance for ice wi 11 be necessary. 13-7 {c)Tunnel Portals and Gates A gated concrete intake structure will be located at the upstream end of the tunnel (see Plate 55).The portal and gate will be designed for an external pressure {static)head of 250 feet. Two 30 feet high by 15 feet wide water passages will be formed in the intake structure,separated by a central concrete pier.Gate guides will be provided within the passages for the operation of 30-foot high by 15-foot wide fixed wheel closure/control gates. tach gate,which will be operated by a wire rope hoist in an enclosed housing,will be designed to operate with a 75-foot oper- ating head (Elevation 945). Stoplog guides will be installed in the diversion tunnel to permit dewatering of the diversion tunnel for plugging operations. The stoplogs will be in sections to facilitate relatively easy handling,with a mobile crane using a follower beam. (d)Operation During Diversion The rating curve for the diversion tunnel is shown in Figure 13.1. (e)Final Closure and Keservoir Filling Upon completion of the main dam to a height sufficient to allow ponding to a level above the primary outlet facilities (Section 13.7),the intake gates will be partially closed,allowing for a discharge of minimum environmental flows while raising the up- stream water level.Once the level rises above the lower level of discharge valves,the diversion gates will be permanently closed and discharge will be through the 90-inch-diameter fixed cone valves in the dam.The diversion tunnel will be plugged with con- crete and curtain grout ing performed around the pl ug.Construct ion will take approximately 1 year.During this time the reservoir will not be allowed to rise above Elevation 1135. The filling of the reservoir from this elevation will take approx- imately 2 to 3 weeks to operating Elevation 1455. 13.5 - Arch Dam (a)General The basis for selection of a concrete arch dam for Devil Canyon is presented in detail in Appendix B. The shape of the canyon gives a crest length-to-height ratio of approximately 2. The proposed height of the dam,at 645 feet,is well within precedent.A list of several comparable large arch dams constructed throughout the world is given in Table 13.2. 13-8 -j I I I .J l 1 'l I 1 l II j J .-/ f II fl !I [1 I I•J (1 (b) The Devil Canyon dam will be designed to withstand dynamic load- ings from intense seismic shaking.Examples of high arch dams constructed throughout the world in high earthquake areas incl ude the 741-foot high El Cajon Dam in Honduras,the 696-foot high Mohamed Reza Shah Pahl avi Dam in Iran,and the 548-foot high Vidraru Arges Dam in Romania.The Vidraru Arges Dam and the 372- foot high Pacoima Dam in Cal ifornia have both withstood high earthquake load ings,with the 1 atter exper ienc ing a peak ground acceleration of between 0.6 to 0.8 g. Green Lake dam is presently being constructed to a height of 210 feet in Sitka,Alaska. The design of the arch dam is described in Appendix B. Locat ion [I, j I '1II LJ IJ II The arch dam will be located at the upstream entrance of the can- yon. Bedrock is well exposed along the gorge walls.Detailed discussion of the rock conditions in the damsite area are pre- sented in the 1980-Hl Geotechnical Report (1). (c)Foundations The arch d am wi 11 be founded on sound bedrock.Approx imate 1y 20 to 40 feet of weathered and/or loose rock will be removed beneath the dam foundation.All bedrock irregularities will be removed beneath the foundat ion to eliminate high stress concentrat ions within the concrete.During excavation the rock will also be trimmed,as far as is practical,to increase the symmetry of the centerline profile and provide a comparatively uniform stress dis- tribution across the dam.Areas of dikes and the local areas of poorer quality rock will be excavated and supplemented with dental concrete. The foundation will be consolidation grouted over its entire area, and a double grout curta in up to 300 feet deep wi 11 run beneath the dam and its adj acent structures as shown in Pl ate 51.Grout- ing will be done from a system of galleries which will run through the dam and into the rock.Within the rock these galleries will also serve as collectors for drainage holes which will be drilled just downstream of the grout curtain and intercept any seepage passing through the curtain. Un the right abutment a mass concrete thrust block will be founded at the end of the dam to match the left block and improve the dam symmetry. (d)Arch uam Geometry The design philosophy of the dam is described in detail in Appen- dix B and is briefly summarized here.The dam geometry is shown in Plates 47 and 4H.The crown section at the center of the river will be of a double curved cupola shape inclined downstream.The static load from the reservoir will be taken primarily in the 13-9 13.6 -Saddle Dam (e)Thrust Blocks \ } j l \ 1 l I.t Construction and Schedule 13-10 The thrust blocks are shown on Pl ate 50.The massi ve concrete block on the left abutment will be formed to take the thrust from the upper part of the dam above the existing sound rock level. It will also serve as a transition between the concrete dam and the adjacent rockfi 11 saddle dam.The incli ned end face of the block will abut and seal against the impervious saddle dam core and be wrapped by the supporting rock shell. A thrust block will also be formed high on the right abutment at the end of the dam and adjacent to the spillway control structure. This block,which will improve the symmetry of the dam profile, wi 11 transmit thrust from the dam through the intake control structure and into the rock. Placing of concrete for the dam will be completed oVer a five-year period·as descr iDed in Sect i-on--l'7-.--Eonstracti-onwi-l-lt-akepl ace throughout the year with cooling coils built into the concrete to dissipate the heat of hydration and special heating and insulation precautions taken in the winter to prevent excessive cooling of concrete surfaces.Concrete aggregates will be obtained from the alluvial deposits in the terraces upstream of the dam (1). Concrete will be placed by means of three highlines strung above the dam between the abutments. A two-center configuration will be adopted for the arches to coun- teract the slight assymetry of the valley and give a more uniform stress distribution across the dam.The arches will be formed by circles with centers located on the vertical axis plane running along the center of the canyon.The radi i of the arches on the right (wider)side of the canyon will be greater than those on the left.The thrust will be directed more nearly normal to the rock abutment rather than parallel to the face,as would occur with a smaller radius arch.The radii of the intrados or downstream face will be smaller than those of the extrados,producing a thickening of the dam at the abutments and reducing stress at the rock/con- crete interface and within the abutments. arches.The three-dimensional action of the structure wi 11 tend to induce tension in the downstream face of the cantilever.This will be offset,however,by the gravity forces of the overhanging section which will also counteract any seismic loadings produced by downstream ground motion. (f) The design philosophy for the saddle dam at Devil Canyon is essentially the same as that for the main dam at Watana described in Section 12.6. The most significant difference is the use of rockfill in the shells instead of river gravels used at Watana.The use of gravels in the I)I j 'II \J upstream shell at Watana is to mlnlrnlze settlement of the shell on sat- uration during filling of the reservoir and to ensure a free draining material.These aspects of the design are not as significant for the much smaller structure at Devil Canyon.The amount of settlement will be less and the drainage paths for the dissipation of any excess pore pressures wi 11 be much reduced.Many dams of equal or 1arger dimen- sions have been constructed of similar materials and the design is well within precedent. (a) Proposed Dam Cross Section Detail s of the proposed saddle dam are shown in Pl ate 53.The central vertical core will be protected by fine and coarse filters on both upstream and downstream slopes and supported by gravel and rockfill shells.The core will have a crest width of 15 feet and side slopes of 1H:4V to provide a core thickness to dam height ratio slightly in excess of 0.5. The wide filter zones will provide sufficient material to seal any cracks which might occur in the core due to settlement or as the result of seismic displacement. The saturated sections of both shells will be constructed of com- pacted clean gravel or rockfill,processed to remove fine material in order to minimize pore pressure generation and ensure rapid dissipat ion duri ng and after a sei smi c event.Si nce pore pres- sures cannot develop in the unsaturated section of the downstream shell,the material in that zone will be unprocessed rockfill from surface or underground excavations. Protection on the upstream slope will consist of a 10-foot layer of ri prap. I) l_J (b)Sources of Construction Material No source of material suitable for the core of the saddle dam has been identified closer than the borrow areas at Watana (Sites 0 and H)(l).The current proposal is to develop Site D for core material at Watana and,since access roads will be established to that area,the same source will be used for the Devil Canyon core. Investigations to date indicate that suitable core material can be obtai ned from areas above the Watana reservoir level.In the un- likely event that insufficient material is available from Site D, then Site H would be developed.The in-place volume of core material is 306,000 cubic yards. The filter material will be obtained from the river deposits (Site G)immediately upstream of the main arch dam at Devil Canyon (1). This area will also be exploited for concrete aggregates.The total volume available in Site G is estimated to be 6 million cubic yards,while the concrete aggregate demand is some 2.7 mil- lion cubic yards.The estimated volumes required for the dam are 228,000 and 181,000 cubic yards for the fine and coarse filters, respectively.Surplus material from Site G will be used in the 13-11 upstream shell.The bal ance of the shell material will be rock- fill obtained primarily from the excavations for the spillways. The total rockfill required will be approximately 1.2 million cubic yards.The proportion of sound rock suitable for use in the dam,which can be obtained from the excavations,cannot be accur- ately assessed at this stage,but it is proposed to make up any shortfall by deepening and extending the emergency spillway cut. This will be more economical and environmentally acceptable than developing Quarry Site K,some 2 miles from the damsite (1). (c)Excavation and Foundation Preparation The excavation and foundation preparation will be as for the Watana site with all all uvium and other unconsol idated deposits under the dam removed to expose sound bedrock to el iminate any risk of 1 i quef ac t ion of the dam foundation under earthquake load- ing.Weathered and fractured rock will be removed from beneath the core and filters,and local irregul arities in the rock surface either trimmed back or concrete added to provide a suitable con- tact surface for placing the core. (d)Grouting and Pressure Relief The rock foundation will be improved by consolidation grouting over the core contact area and by a grouted cutoff along the cen- terline of the core.The cutoff at any location will extend to a depth of at least 0.7 of the water head at that location as shown on Pl ate 51. A grouting and drainage tunnel will be excavated in bedrock beneath the dam along the centerline of the core and will connect with a simil ar tunnel beneath the adjacent concrete arch dam. Pressure relief and drainage holes will be drilled from this tunnel and seepage from the drainage system will be discharged into the arch dam drainage system and ultimately downstream below tai lwater level. (e)Impervious Core and Filters The requirements for impervious core and both fine and coarse fil- ters will be as for the Watana dam (Section 12.6). (f)Shells The processed gravel and rockfi 11 to be pl aced in the saturated zones of the dam will have the same grading as the processed allu- vium used at Watana. The maximum size snall not exceed lti inches and not more than 10 percent of the material shall be finer than 3/8 inch size.This restriction on fine material will not apply to rockfill in the unsaturated zone above Elevation 1375 in the downstream shell. ,! I ( I j 1I I 1 I.J I 1 I I -,( [ rl,) I] (J ']I, Il (], (j 1] t.J (] [J [I [_J U [J LJ I 'II (g)Freeboard and Superelevation The highest reservoir level will be Elevation 1466 under maximum probable flood (PMF)flows.At this elevation the fuse plug in the emergency spillway will be breached and the reservoir level will fall to the spillway sill elevation of 1434.The normal max- imum pool elevation is 1455. A minimum freeboard of tnree feet will be provided for the PMF; hence,the crest of the saddle dam will be Elevation 1469.In addition,an allowance of one percent of the height of the dam will be made for potential settlement of the rockfill shells under seismic loading.An allowance of one foot has been made for set- tlement of both abutments;hence,the final crest elevations of the saddle dam will be 1470 at the abutments,rising in proportion to the total height of the dam to Elevation 1472 at the maximum section.Under normal operating conditions,the freeboard will range from 15 feet at the abutments to 17 feet at the center of the dam.Further allowances will be made to compensate for static settlement of the dam after completion due to its own weight and the effect of saturation of the upstream shell,Which will tend to produce add it iona1 breakdown of the rock fill at po int contacts. Therefore,one percent of the dam height will be allowed for such settlement,giving a maximum crest elevation on completion of the construction of 1475 at the maximum height,and 1471 at the abut- ments. The allowances for post-construction settlement and seismic slump- ing will be achieved by steepening both slopes of the dam above Elevation 1400.These allowances are considered conservative and should be reviewed as more relevant data are obtained during detailed design studies. (h)Instrumentation Instrumentation will be installed within all parts of the dam to provide monitoring during construction as well as during opera- tion.Instruments for measuring internal vertical ana horizontal displacements,stresses and strains,and total and fluid pres- sures,as well as surface monuments and markers similar to those proposed for the Watana dam,will be installed. (i)Stability Analyses As at Watana,special precaut ions have been taken to ensure sta- bil ity under earthquake loading by the use of processed free draining gravel and rockfill in the saturated zones of the dam, the incorporation of very wide filter zones,and the removal of all unconsolidated natural material from beneath the dam. Static and dynamic stability analyses of the upstream slopes of the Watana dam (Section 12.6),have confirmed stable slopes under all conditions for a 2.4H:1V upstream slope and a 2H:IV downstream slope. 13-13 Since these same slopes have been used for the Devil Canyon saddle dam and the construction materials are essentially similar,it was considered unnecessary to carry out further analysis for the spec- ific details of the saddle dam to confirm feasibility,though such analyses will be required during the final design phase. 13.7 -Primary Outlet Facilities (a)General The prime function of the outlet facilities is to provide for dis- charge through the main dam,in conjunction with the power facili- ties,of routed floods with up to f:50 years recurrence period at the Devil Canyon reservoir.This will require a total discharge capacity of 38,500 cfs through the valves.Downstream erosion will be minimal and nitrogen supersaturation of the releases will be restricted as much as possible as in the case of the Watana development.A further function of these releases is to provide an emergency drawdown for the reservoir,shou1d mai ntenance be necessary on the main dam or low level submerged structures,and also to act as a diversion during the latter part of the construc~ tion period as described in Section 13.4. The facilities will be located in the lower portion of the main dam, as shown on Plate 52,and will consist of seven free dis- charge valves set in the lower part of the arch dam. (b)Outlet The di scharge val ves wi 11 be the fi xed-cone type located at two elevations:the upper group,consisting of four 102-inch diameter valves,will be set at Elevation 1050,and the lower group of three 9.0-inch diameter valves will be set at Elevation 930.The valves will be installed nearly radially (normal to the dam cen- terline)with the points of impact of the issuing jets staggered as shown in Plate 52. The fixed-cone valves will be installed on individual conduits ----------------------.---pass-;-ng--through-the-dam,.set c-lose t-o-t-hedowns-t-ream-faee,and protected by upstream ring follower gates located in separate chambers within the dam.Monorail hoists will be located above each val ve and gate assembly to provide for their withdrawal and maintenance.The gates and val ves will be linked by a 20 foot hi gh tunnel runni ng across the dam and into the 1 eft abutment where access will be provided by means of a vertical shaft exiting through the thrust block.Although secondary access will be pro- vided via a similar shaft from the right abutment,access and in- stallation are both from the left side. The valve and gate assemblies will be protected by individual trashracks installed on the upstream face.The racks will be removable along guides running on the upstream dam face.The racks will be raised by a travelling gantry crane operating at deck revel.Guides will be installed for the installation of stop1ogs,if required,at the upstream face. 13-14 1 I l ,'I 1 I 1 l 1 ( ( ) I I I I ! I r (c)Fixed-Cone Valves The 102-inch diameter valves operating at a gross head of 420 feet and the gO-inch diameter valves operating at a head of 525 feet have been selected to be within current precedent considering the valve size and the static head on the valve.The valves will be located in ind iv idua 11y heated rooms and wi 11 be prov ided with electric jacket heaters installed around the cylindrical sleeve of each valve.The valves will be capable of year round operation, although winter operation is not contemplated.Normally,when the valves are closed,the upstream ring follower gates will also be closed to minimize leakage and freezing of water through the valve seats. The valves will be operated remotely by two hydraulic operators. Operation of the valves will be from either Watana or by local operation. In sizing the valves it has been assumed that the valve gate open- ing wi 11 be restr icted to 80 percent full stroke to reduce poss i- bilities of vibration. (d)Ring Follower Gates Ring follower gates will be installed upstream of each valve and will be used: - To permit inspection and maintenance of the fixed-cone valves; -To rel ieve hydrostatic pressure on the valves when they are in the closed position;and To close against flowing water in the event of malfunction or failure of the valves. The ring follower gates will have nominal diameters of 102 and 9U inches and will be of welded or cast steel construction.The gates wi 11 be designed to withstand the total stat ic head under full reservoir.Existing large diameter,high head ring follower gates are summarized in Table 12.6. The design and arrangement of the ring follower gates will be as discussed for Watana in Section 10.8. (e)Trashracks A steel trashrack will be installed at the upstream entrance to each water passage to prevent debris from being drawn into the discharge valves.The bar spacing on the racks will be approxi- mately 9 inches.Provision will be made for monitoring head loss across the racks. 13-15 (f)Hulkhead Gates The bulkhead gates will be installed only under balanced head con- ditions using a gantry crane.The gates will be 13 feet and 11 feet square for the upper and lower valves,respectively. Each gate will be designed to withstand full differential head under maximum reservoir water level.One gate for each valve size has been assumed.The gates wi 11 be stored at the dam crest level. A temporary cover will be placed in the bulkhead gate check at trashrack level to prevent debris from getting behind the trash- racks. The bulkhead gates and trashracks will be handled by an electric travelling gantry type crane located on the main dam crest at Ele- vation 1468.The crane and lifting arrangement will have provi- sion for lowering a gate around the curved face of the dam. 13.8 -Main Spillway (a) General The main spillway at Devil Canyon will be locatea on the right side of the canyon (see Plate 56).The upstream control structure will be aajacent to the arch dam thrust block and will discharge down an incl ined concrete-l ined chute constructed on the steep face of the canyon.The chute will terminate in a flip bucket Which will traject flows downstream and into the river. The right bank location for the spillway facilities is considered preferable to the left because Df the better quality of the rock, and better downstream alignment for spillway discharges. The spillway will be designed to pass the 1:10,000 year routed flood at Watana in conjunction with the outlet facilities.The .spi llwa.y .wi 11 have a designcapaci-ty-~.o.£-125,000 cfsdischarged over a total head drop of 550 feet.No surcharge will occur above the normal maximum reservoir operating level of 1,455 feet.This discharge will be below the design discharge of 150,OUU cfs over 600 feet for the Mica Project in British Columbia,which has oper- ated successfully for a number of years. (b)Approach Channel and Control Structure The approach channel will be excavated to a depth of approximately 100 feet in the rock with a width of Just over 130 feet and an invert elevation of 1375. The control structure,as shown in Plate 57,will be a three-bay concrete structure set at the end of the channel.Each bay wi 11 incorporate a 56-foot-high by 30-foot-wide gate on an ogee-crested weir and, in conjunction with the other gates,will control the 13-16 I , 1 I I I :1 i .j 1 ~ ! ) 1 I I 1 I I I r I]•__J [J iJ U U flows passing though the spillway.The gates will be fixed wheel gates operated by individual rope hoists. A gallery is provided within the mass concrete weir from which grouting can be carried out and drain holes can be drilled as a continuation of the grout curtain and drain beneath the main dam. The main access route will cross the dam across the control struc- ture deck upstream of the gate tower and bridge structure. (c)Spillway Chute The spi 11way chute wi 11 cut across the steep north face of the canyon for a distance of approximately 900 feet,terminating at Elevation 1000.The chute will taper uniformly over its length from 122 feet at the upstream end to HO feet downstream. The overburden in the spillway area is expected to be generally less than lU feet,but local depressions may be encountered up to 00 or 60 feet deep.Where such features extend below excavation grades,they will be excavated to sound rock and filled with con- crete as required. The orientation of the spillway is generally parallel to the strike of the bedding planes,and the stability of the northern excavation face is controlled by the bedding. For stability,the rock will be cut back to an angle of 5So to 60°,or parallel to the rock dip.Minimum rock bolting may be required to prevent slabs of rock spalling off the face in closely jointed areas. Wire mesh will be provided over the majority of the face to control small rock falls. Joint Set I and the major shears are generally vertically dipping and are perpendicular to the spillway axis and will not effect the stability of slopes or structures . The chute itself will be concrete-lined with invert and wall slabs anchored back to the rock.The profile of the chute will be such that the invert slabs wi 11 be founded on sound rock.Part way down the chute on the side closest to the river,the depth of cut will be insufficient to provide the supporting rock to the slabs. In this area the side wall will take the form of a gravity section over approximately a 200 foot length. The velocity at the bottom of the chute will be approximately 150 ft/s.In order to prevent cavitation of the chute surfaces,air will be introduced into the discharges.Air will be drawn in along the chute via an underlying aeration gallery and offshoot ducts extending to the downstream side of a raised step running transverse to the chute,similar to that provided at Watana. Adequate underdrainage of the spillway chute is essential for sta- bility of the structure.Uplift pressure will develop from reser- voir seepage under the control structure and from ground water and seepage from the high velocity flows within the spillway itself. 13-17 Seepage from the spillway flow will generate high pressure within the rock through cracks in the concrete,and with sudden closing of the spillway gates,res idual unbal anced water pressures under the slab will result. An extensive drainage system is therefore proposed similar to that described for Watana.The dam grout curtain and drainage system is continued under the spillway control structure utilizing a gallery through the rollway.A system of box drains is proposed for the entire length of the spillway under the concrete slab.To avoid blockage of the system by freezing of the surface drains,a 30-foot deep drainage gallery is proposed along the entire length of the spillway.Dr ain holes from the surface arains will inter- sect the gallery. Complete drainage of the underside of the slab cannot be assured, and some freezing or blockage of the drains will occur at times. Adaitional resistance to uplift pressures must,therefore,be pro- vided by means of rock anchors.To ensure adequate foundation quality for anchorage,consolidation grouting is proposed' to a depth of 20 feet.This grouted zone will also restrict seepage below the spillway and improve the deformation characteristics of the flip bucket rock foundation. Drainage holes drilled into the base of the high rock cuts will ensure increased stability of the excavation. (d) Flip Bucket The spi llway chute wi 11 terminate in a mass concrete fl ip bucket founded on sound rock at Elevation 1000,approximately 100 feet above the river.The curve of the flow surface of the bucket will be adjusted to confine the issuing discharge,but at present it is assumed to be cylindrical and will be mOdified at the final design stage following model tests.A grouting/drainage gallery will be provided within the bucket to allow for foundation consol idation .and relief o~uplift pre5sures~ The jet issuing from the bucket will be trajected downstream and parallel to the river below. (e) Plunge Pool The impact area of the issuing spillway discharge will be limited to the area of the downstream river surface to prevent excess ive erosion of the canyon walls.This will be done by modification of the flow surface of the flip bucket as described above.Over this impact area the alluvial material in the riverbed will be exca- vated down to sound rock to provide a plunge pool in which most of the inherent energy of the discharges will be dissipated,although some energy will already have been dissipated by friction in the chute,and in dispersion and friction through the air. 13-18 1 11 !) ) 1<1 ) ) I) 1 r ) I ) ,I 1 ~.j Il ,,) ) \) l-r [] lJ U U U The river material in the plunge pool area will be excavated to prevent excessive erosion and random downstream deposition of material which might occur if discharges were allowed to form their own pool. 13.9 -Emergency Spillway (a)General The emergency spillway will be located on the left side of the river beyond the rockfill saddle dam.It will be set within the rock underlying the left side of the saddle ana will continue downstream for approximately 2,00U feet. An erodible fuse plug,consisting of impervious material and fine gravels,will be constructed at the upstream end ana will be designed to wash out when overtopped by tne reservoir,releasing floods of up to 160,00U cfs in excess of the combined main spill- way and outlet capacities and thus preventing overtopping of the main dam. (b) Fuse Plug and Approach Channel The approach channel to the fuse plug will be cut in the rock and will have a width of 310 feet and an invert elevation of 217U. The channel will be crossed by the main access road to the dam on a bridge consisting of concrete piers,precast beams, and an in situ concrete bridge deck.The fuse plug will fill the approach channel and will have a maximum height of 31.5 feet with a crest elevation of 1465.5.The plug will be located on top of a flat- crested weir excavated in the rock and protected ·with a concrete slab.Since the rock surface slopes steeply at the channel loca- tion,it is desirable to keep the spillway chute as narrow as pos- sible to reduce the excavation quality.For this reason a drop section downstream of the plug has been introduced to increase the discharge coefficients at the plug sections and thus enable a reduction in the length of the plug. The plug will be traversed by a pilot channel with an invert ele- vation of 1464, and will have a similar zoning to that described in Section 12.10 for Watana. (c)Discharge Channel The channel wi 11 narrow downstream,discharging into a steep valley tributary above the Susitna River.This channel will r apid ly erode under high flows but wi 11 serve the purpose of training the initial flows in the direction of the valley. (d)Geotechnical Considerations Uverburden depth in the area of the emergency spillway will be in the order of 10 to 20 feet in thickness.Local depressions in the rock surface may have greater thicknesses of overburden. 13-19 The spillway is generally orientated parallel to the strike of the bedding planes on the northside of the canyon. The northern excavation faces will therefore be controlled by the dip of the bedding planes which varies from 50° to 60° in this area.The excavation will be cut back parallel to the bedding. In the area of the fuse plug,the sides of the excavation will be 1H:3V to provide a suitable contact slope for the fuse plug em- bankment. I~o allowance for rock support has been made for the excavat ion faces of the spillway.In some areas the excavated faces without additional rock bolting will have factors of safety approaching unity,but since this channel will be rarely,if ever,used this risk is considered acceptable.A rock fall into the spillway channel wi 11 not endanger equipment or personnel and can be removed if sufficient quantity accumulates to effect water flow in the channel. The consolidation grouting similar to that required under the core of the saddle dam will be carried out over the foundation area of the fuse plug.This grouting will prevent seepage in the slightly weathered rock under the fuse pl ug and prevent piping of fines from the core of the plug into open rock fissures. Rock support with some form of rock bolting may be required on the excavation slope in the vicinity of the bridge upstream of the use plug. 13.10 - Devil Canyon Power Facilities (a)Intake The intake structure is located on the right bank as shown on Plate 64.Separate intakes are provided for each turbine.Reser- voir levels will vary between Elevations 145Sand 1405.Each in- .....······---·--·----t·akehasasingle .intake gate,a set of-steel-trasnr-a0ks,anEl pro-·· vision for placing a bulkhead gate upstream from the intake gate. A traveling gantry crane on the intake deck at Elevation 1466 will service all four intakes.The mechanical equipment is described in more detail below. The intake is located at the end of a 200-foot-long un 1 ined approach channel.The overburden in this area is estimated to be approximately 10 feet deep. The excavation in rock is up to 170 feet in depth.Since the side excavation slopes are at an angle of 60° to the strike of control- ling bedding plane,no major stability problems are expected. Since this is a water channel in which rock falls could obstruct 'J ) 1 J I 1 1 -J ) 1 ] ] J ] J .] 1 J J flow and cause damage to intake structures or power facil ities, slopes of 1H:4V are required with an allowance for rock bolting over 25 percent of the face area to achieve a satisfactory factor of safety. The excavation for the intake structure requires four tunnel por- tals on tiO foot centers.Rock pillars 32 feet wide and 38 feet deep separate the portals.If Joint Sets II ana III are signifi- cant in this area,these rock pillars may be unstable.Uuring ex- cavation of the portal by blasting,it is likely that portions of these pi 11 ars will be loosened and will have to be removed for safety.Rock bolting at 3 foot centers (high yield bolts 1 inch diameter)over the entire face area of the pillars will be re- quired.Bolts will range in length from 32 feet extending right through the pillar to 50 feet long to anchor the pillar back to sound rock.Concrete will be pl aced where overexcavation has occurred. The rock face between intakes wi 11 be 1 ined with concrete to sta- bil ize the rock surface.The grout curtain and drainage holes will continue beyond the main dam and beneath this structure. The drainage holes downstream of the grout curtain will be termin- ated adjacent to the spillway control structure,since the flow paths in this area of the abutment are considerably longer than under the dam and at low head of water pressure. (b)Intake Gates The four power intakes will have a single fixed wheel intake gate with a nominal operating size of 20-feet-wide by 2!:i-feet-high. The gates will have an upstream skinplate and seal and will be operated by hydraulic or wire rope hoists located in heated enclo- sures immediately below deck level.The gates,which will normal- ly close under balanced head conaitions to permit dewatering of the penstock ana turbine water passages for turbine inspection and maintenance,will also be capable of closing under tneir own weight with full flow conditions and maximum reservoir water level in the event of runaway of the turbines.A heated air vent will be provided at the intake deck to satisfy air demand requirements when the intake gate is closed with flowing water conditions. (c)Intake Bulkhead Gates One set of intake bulkhead consisting of two gate sections will be provided for closing the intake openings.The gate will be used to permit inspection and maintenance of the intake gate and intake gate guides.The gates will be raised and lowered under balanced water conditions only. 13-21 (d) Trashr acks Each of the four intakes wi 11 have trashracks at the upstream face.The trashrack will have a bar spacing of about 6 inches and be designed for a maximum differential head of about 20 feet.each trashrack will be constructed in two sections for removal by means of a follower suspended from the intake gantry crane. (e)Intake Gantry Crane A 50-ton capacity (approximately)electrical traveling gantry crane will be provided on the intake deck at Elevation 1466 for handling the trashracks,maintenance gates and intake gates. 13.11 -Penstocks The power plant will have four penstocks,one for each unit.The maxi- mum static head on each penstock will be 638 feet,as measured from normal maximum operating level (Elevation 1455)to centerl ine distribu- tor level (Elevation 817).An allowance of 35 percent has been made for pressure rise in the penstock under transient conditions,giving a maximum head of 861 feet.Maximum extreme head,corresponding to maxi- mum reservoir flood level will be 876 feet. The penstock tunnel s are fully concrete-l ined except for a ~5U-foot section upstream of the powerhouse which is steel-l ined.The incl ined sections of the concrete-lined penstocks will be at 55°to the hori- zontal. (a)Steel Liner The first SO feet of steel 1 iner immediately upstream of the powerhouse wi 11 be designed to res i st the full internal pressure. The remainder of the steel liner,extending another 200 feet up- stream,will require reduced steel assuming a minimum of rock sup- port in this area.For prel iminary design,it is assumed that not more than 50 percent of the design head is taken by the surround-.rn~iro-cK--over-fhisl r ansftTon·Tengffi-:--.--~~_.--_.___._._----. Beyond the steel 1 iner,the hydraul ic loads are taken solely by the rock tunnel with a concrete liner. The steel 1iner is surrounded by a concrete infill with a min irmm thickness of 24 inches.A preliminary analysis has resulted in an optimum internal diameter of the steel lining of 15 feet,based on the minimum total cost of construction and the capitalized value of energy reduction due to head loss.A tapered steel transition wi 11 be provided at the j unct i on between the steel 1 iner and the concrete liner to increase the internal diameter from 15 feet to 20 feet. ) ) ] ..~] 1 J ~) -J J J ] 1 J J J 1 ) ] 1 (b)Concrete Liner (c) The thickness of the concrete 1 ining wi 11 vary with the design head,with the minimum thickness of lining being 12 inches. Based on preliminary'analyses,the optimum internal diameter of the concrete liner is 20 feet. Geotechnical Considerations The penstock tunnels will have the same orientation as the draft tube tunnels. Since the tunnels will be concrete lined for hydraulic considera- tions,the initial rock support required will generally be minor. However,for estimating,approximately 12 percent of the tunnel length is assumed to have poor rock quality that will require pattern rock bolting and shotcrete rock support. The spacing of the tunnels is limited to 2.50,center to center, where U is the excavated diameter of the tunnels.For penstock tunnels of 20 foot internal diameter with 2 foot thick concrete lining,the spacing required is bU feet. (J (J U lJ U The contact between tunnel crown and concrete tunnel lining will be grouted.Generally,the rock has a high mocul us, and deforma- tion of the rock around the penstock will be negligible.Highly fractured zones,however,may require consolidation grouting but this will be in localized areas only. (d)Grouting and Pressure Relief A comprehensive pressure relief system is required to protect the underground caverns against seepage from the high pressure pen- stocks.The system will consist of small diameter boreholes set out in an array to intercept the jointing in the rock. Grouting round the penstocks will be provided to: Fi 11 and seal any voias between the concrete infi 11 and the steel liner or rock which may be left after the concrete placing and curing;and Fi 11 joints or fractures in the rock surrounding the penstocks to reduce flow into the pressure rel ief system and to conso1 i- date the rock. 13.12 -Powerhouse and Related Structures (a) Genera1 The underground powerhouse complex wi 11 be constructed in the right abutment.This will require the excavation of three major caverns (powerhouse,transformer gallery and surge chamber),with 13-23 interconnecting rock tunnels for the draft tubes and isolated phase bus ducts. An unlined rock tunnel will be constructed for vehicular access to the three main rock caverns.A second unl ined rock tunnel will provide access from the powerhouse to the foot of the arch dam. Vertical shafts will be required for personnel access by elevator to the underground powerhouse;for oil filled cable from the transformer gallery;and for surge chamber venting. The draft tube gate gallery and cavern will be located in the surge chamber cavern,above maximum design surge level. The general 1ayout of the powerhouse compl ex is shown on Pl ates 85, 86 and 87.The transformer gallery will be located upstream of the powerhouse cavern and the surge chamber located downstream of the powerhouse cavern.The spac ing between the underground caverns will be at least 1.0 times the main span of the larger ex- cavat ion. (b) Layout Considerations The powerhouse is located underground in the right abutment. Water for power generat ion is taken from an intake structure to the right of the main spillway,and carried through individual penstocks to the turbines.Water is discharged to the river by a single tailrace tunnel 6800 feet in length.The draft tubes and tailrace tunnel are protected against excessive transient pressure rise by a downstream surge chamber, which also provides storage for the turbine start-up sequence. The intake structure is aesigned for a maximum drawdown of 50 feet and is located close to the main arch dam thrust block for ease of access.The powerhouse is located to provide the minimum total length of penstock,assuming an inclination of 55°to the horizon- tal for the sloping section of penstock.The orientation of the powerhouse.Jtas beens_elected ..a.s....g corJ1RrQmi~g betW~J~n ...the....ct~sirE?cl orientation for power flow (E-W)and the geotechnical data on known shear zones and joint sets.Minimum clear spacing between major rock excavations is at least 1.5 times the span of the larger excavation.This is considered a conservative estimate for preliminary design purposes. The downstream surge chamber will be constructed as close as pos- sible to the powerhouse for maximum protection to the draft tubes under transient load conditions.For this reason the undergrouna transformer gallery will be located upstream from the powerhouse. The rock around the powerhouse cavern and transformer gallery is protected against high pressure seepage from the penstocks by a 200-foot continuous steel-lining and an extensive pressure relief system. ) ,} ] 1 ], 1 efl.':'.1 J J 1 ) 1 ) 1 ) 1 ) l' [l J (' I j () ( (1 IJ lJ U U (c)Access Tunnels and Shafts The 3,000-foot long main access tunnel connects the powerhouse cavern at Elevation 852 with the canyon access road on the right bank. A secondary access tunnel runs from the main powerhouse access tunnel to the foot of the arch dam,for routine maintenance of the fixed cone valves.Br anch tunnels from the secondary access tunnel will provide construction access to the lower sec- tion of the penstocks at Elevation 820.Separate branch tunnels from the main access tunnel give vehicle access to the transformer gallery at Elevation ~9ti and the draft tube gate gallery at Eleva- tion 908.The maximum gradient on the permanent access tunnel is 8 percent;the maximum gradient on the secondary access tunnel is 9 percent. The cross section of the access tunnels is dictated by require- ments for construction plant.For preliminary design a modified horseshoe shape 35-feet wide by 28-feet high has been used. The alignment of the access tunnel parallels Joint Sets II and III (1).Geologic surface mapping indicates that the tunnel may in- tersect 10 shear zones but only three of these are greater than 10 feet in width.Generally,the rock quality is such that excava- tion and support are not anticipated to be problems. Based on borings and mapping,it has been assumed that 8 percent of the tunnel length will be in poor rock with RQDs less than 25 percent.In these zones,it is anticipated that extensive shot- crete and rockbolt support and/or steel sets and in situ concrete 1 ining may be required.Additional support may be required for all junctions depending on local rock conditions. A minimum rock cover to the tunnel will be 1.5 multipl ied by the tunnel span.The side slopes of the portal cut are expected to be 1H:4V with localized support as required.The portal face may be excavated at 1H:10V,requiring more extensive rock bolting. For final design,detailed mapping of the portal area is required. If possible,for economy of excavation a natural rock face should be selected in the canyon wall for the tunnel portals. The main access shaft will be located at the north end of the powerhouse cavern,providing personnel access by elevator from the surface.Horizontal tunnels will be provided from this shaft for pedestrian access to the transformer gallery and the draft tube gate gallery.At a higher level,access will also be available to the fire protection head tank. Access to the upstream grouting gallery will be from the transfor- mer gallery main access tunnel,at a maximum gradient of 13.5 percent. 13-25 (d)Powerhouse Cavern The main powerhouse cavern is designed to accommodate four verti- cal shaft Francis turbines,in line,with direct coupling to over- hung generators.Each unit is rated at 150 MW at 57t>-foot net head. The overall height of the cavern is governed by the physical size of the turbine and generator,the design dimensions of the turbine draft tube,the overhead travell ing crane clearance and size,and the rise of the roof arch.The unit spacing will be 6U feet with an additional 11U-foot service bay at the south end of the power- house for routine maintenance and construction erection.The control room will be located at the north end of the main power- house floor.The width of the cavern will be sufficient for the physical size of the generator plus galleries for piping,air- conditioning ducts,electrical cables,and isolated phase bus. Compensation flow of 500 cfs will be required to the river immedi- ately downstream of the arch dam,in order to provide env iron- mental flows along the approximate 7000 foot length of canyon.up- stream of the tailrace outlet.This flow will be provided by two No.1300 hp vertical shaft mixed flow pumps,installed in a gal- lery below the service bay.Each pump is rated at 115,000 gpm at 35-foot head.Water wi 11 be taken from the base of the surge chamber and pumped 1000 feet to the dam through a discharge pipe 1 aid partly in the secondary access tunnel and partly in a sep- arate outlet tunnel. Multiple stairway access points will be available from the power- house main floor to each gallery level.Access to the transformer gallery from the powerhouse will be by a tunnel from the access shaft or by a stairway through each of the four bus tunnels. Access will also be available to the draft tube gate gallery by a tunnel from the main access shaft. A serv ice e 1ev ator will be provided for access from the serv ice bay area on the main floor to the machine shop,and the dewatering ---------_~_---~~an (j--err-a-in agegallerTe s --drrt ffe -ldweY'--floo r s;-flatCl1eswil lljeprd= vided through all main floors for installation and routine main- tenance of pumps,valves and other heavy equipment using the main powerhouse crane. (e)Transformer Gallery The transformers will be located underground in a separate unlined rock cavern,120 feet upstream of the powerhouse cavern,with four interconnecting tunnels for the isolated phase bus. There will be 12 s ingle-phase transformers in four groups of 3, one group for each generating unit.Each transformer is rated at 13/345,70 MVA.For increased rel iabil ity,one spare transformer and one spare HV circuit will be provided.The station service transfor- mers and the surface facilities transformers will be located in the bus tunnels.Generator excitation transformers will be located on the main powerhouse floor. 13-26 j .l 1 j 1 ] -~ ) '~ 1 ) ) 1 ) J -l ) l' f1 \) ) () I].. I 1 l J High voltage cables will be taken to the surface in two 7.5 foot interval diameter cable shafts,and provision will be made for an inspection hoist in each shaft. Vehicle access to the transformer gallery will be from the south end via the main powerhouse access tunnel.Personnel access will be from the main access shaft or through each of the four isolated phase bus tunnels. (f)Surge Chamber A simple surge chamber will be constructed 120 feet downstream of the powerhouse to control pressure fl uctuat ions in the turbine draft tubes and tailrace tunnel under transient load conditions, and on mach i ne start-up.The chamber wi 11 be common to all four draft tubes and the in1et pipe to Hie compensat ion flow pumps. The chamber design will be governed by an assumed full load rejec- tion surge and the requirement for incipient stability under part load operation,together with estimated floor levels from the tailwater rating curve. The draft tube gate gallery and crane will be located in the same cavern,above the max imum ant ici pated surge 1eve 1.Access to the draft tube gate gallery will be by a rock tunnel from the main access tunnel.The tunnel wi 11 be widened locally for storage of the draft tube gates. The chamber will be an unlined rock excavation with localized rock support as necessary for stability of the roof arch and walls. The guide blocks for the draft tube gates wi 11 be of reinforced concrete anchored to the rock excavation by rock bolts. 1 ) LJ (J J ) (g)Geotechnical Considerations for Powerhouse Caverns The proposed orientation of the powerhouse cavern has been influ- enced by the orientation of major Joint Set I and the trend of major shears,which are roughly perpenaicul ar to the long ax is of caverns.Joint Sets II and III intersect the cavern at about 35°. This may cause some possible wedge block instabil ity in the cavern,but with the gOOd quality rock conaition at depth,this is not expected to be a problem. boreholes drilled in the vicinity of the powerhouse showed the rock to be good to excellent quality (I). It has been assumed, however,for cost est imating that a major shear will intersect the powerhouse cavern requiring substantial support over 10 percent of the cavern length. Preliminary design indicates that a 6-foot by 6-foot pattern of high yield anchors 25 feet long will be adequate in the cavern roof support. 13-27 ~ock p~rmeabil ities are expected.to be low, in the order of 1 x 10-cm/s at cavern depth.IVlin imal seepage into the exca- vation from the surrounding rock is expected during construction. The in situ stress of the rock is expected to be low,No evidence has been found to indicate high residual stress.Further investi- gations are required to determine the rock stress in the power- house cavern area for final design.However,it is expected that the in situ stress will not affect orientation of the cavern. The prel imnary design of the caverns has been carried out in the same manner as for Watana. Grouting ana pressure relief will be similar to that described for Watana. The compensation flow tunnel is orientated at 020 0 and will be intersected by Joint Sets II and III at 35 0 •These joint sets are not expected to cause any tunnel ing instabil ity.The tunnel is similar in size and shape to the majn access tunnel and it is expected that the similar rock support will be required. Since the portal will be in a very steep sided part of the canyon, the exact location can be optimized utilizing the natural rock face so that very little portal excavation is required. Near the portal,the compensation flow tunnel intersects the right abutment drainage tunnel.Access will be maintained to upstream and downstream port ions of the drainage tunnel by a secondary incl ined shaft. (h)Draft Tube Tunnels The 120 0 orientation of the draft tube tunnels has been determined from the powerhouse alignment.Joint Sets I,II and III and the major shears all intersect the tunnel s at about 50 0 to the tunnel axis.Little rock support is expected to be required in these tunnels. The tunnels will be 23 feet in diameter ana steel and concrete 1 ined,with the concrete having a thickness of about 2 feet. Rock support will be required mainly at the junctions with power- house and surge chamber,where the two free faces give greatest potential for instability. The contact between tunnel crown and concrete tunnel 1 ining will be grouted.Consol idation grouting will only be required if a highly fractured zone is encountered. 13.13 -Reservoir The Uevil Canyon reservoir,at a normal operating level of 1455 feet, will be approximately 26 miles long with a maximum width on the order of 1/2 mile.The total surface area at normal operating level is 7800 13-28 l ) 1 'I I I -j ) 1 \ J ) l ) ) ..J j 1 I I(\.I I \lJ acres.Immediately upstream of the dam,the maximum water depth will be approximately 580 feet.The minimum reservoir level will be 1405 feet during normal operation,resulting in a maximum drawdown of 50 feet.The reservoir will have a total capacity of 1,090,000 acre feet of which 350,000 acre feet will be live storage. Filling of the reservoir will result in local slope instability.A reconnaissance mapping program performed for this study identified existing and potential areas of slope instability as well as areas of permafrost.Details of this work are presented in the 19~0-81 Geotechnical Report (1). Prior to reservoir filling,the area below Elevation 1460 will be cleared of all trees and brush.A field reconnaissance of the proposed reservoir area was undertaken.This work included examination of aeri- al photographs and maps, and a collection of recent forest inventory data from the U.S.Forest Service.As described for the Watana reser- voir,most of the vegetation within the reservoir consists of trees with very 1 ittle undergrowth.The trees are generally small spruce. In the Watana reservoir area,an estimated 3,200,000 cubic feet of wood exists.Approximately 87 percent of the available timber are soft woods. The steep terrain,moderate-light tree stocking levels,small trees, erosive potential of the reservoir slopes,remoteness,and very re- stricted access to the reservoirs will affect the choice of harvesting to be utilized for this project. Present market demand for the timber at Sus itna is worldwide demand for wood'fluctuates considerably. that use of the harvested material would be limited wood-waste products or as fuel. low;however,the It is ant ic i pated to either sale as (J Sl ash material including brush and small trees,which will be suitable for either of the above uses,will be either burned in a controlled manner consistent with applicable laws and regulations,or hauled to a disposal site.Material pl aced in disposal areas will be covered with an 'earthfi 11 cover adequate to prevent eros ion and subsequent expo- sure. 13.14 -Tailrace Tunnel The tailrace pressure tunnel carries power plant discharge from the surge chamber to the river.The tunnel has a modified horseshoe cross- section with an internal dimension of 38 feet.For preliminary design, it is assumed to be concrete lined throughout with a minimum thickness of 12 inches.The length of the tunnel is 6800 feet. The size of the tunnel and surge chamber was selected after an economic study of the cost of construction and the capitalized value of average annual energy losses caused by friction,bends and changes of section. 13-29 The tailrace portal site will be located at a prominent steep rock face on the right bank of the river.The portal out1et is rectangul ar in section,which reduces both the maximum outlet velocity (8 ft/s)as well as the velocity head losses.Vertical stoplog guides are provided for closure of the tunnel for tunnel inspection and/or maintenance. 13.15 -Turbines and Generators (a) Unit Capacity The Oevil Canyon powerhouse will have four generating units with a nominal capacity of 150 MW based on the minimum December reservoir level (Elevation 1405)and a corresponding gross head of 555 feet in the station. The head on the plant will vary from 555 feet to 605 feet.The maximum unit output will change with head as shown in Figure 13.2. The rated average operating head for the turbine has been estab- 1ished at 575 feet.Allowing for generator losses,this results in a rated turbine output of 225,000 hp (168 MW)at full gate. The generator rating has been selected as 180 MVA with a 90 per- cent power factor.The generators will be capable of continuous operat ion at 115 percent rated power.f3ecause of the high capa- city factor for the Devil Canyon station,the generators will, therefore,be sized on the basis of maximum turbine output at max- imum head,allowing for a possible 5 percent addition in power from the turbine.This maximum turbine output (250,000 hp) is within the continuous overload rating of the generator. (b)Turbines The turbines will be of the vertical shaft Francis type with steel spiral casing and a concrete elbow type draft tube.The draft tube will have a single water passage (no center pier). Max imum and min imum heads on the un its will be 542 feet and 600 feet,respectively.The full gate output of the turbines will be about 240,000 hp at maximum net head and 205,000 hp at minimum net head.Overgating of the turbines may be possible,providing approximately 5 percent additional power.For preliminary design purposes,the best efficiency (best gate)output of the units has been assumed at 85 percent of the full gate turbine output. The full gate and best gate efficiencies of the turbines will be about 91 percent and 94 percent,respectively,at rated head.The efficiency will be about 0.2 percent lower at maximum head and 0.5 percent lower at minimum head.The preliminary performance curve for the turbine is shown in Figure 13.3. -) 1 '·'"l I l I I 1 1 I ) I I J J 11 I I (1 I I I I U lJ LJ (c) A speed of 2L5 rpm has been selected for the unit for preliminary design purposes.The resulting turbine specific speed (Ns ) is 37.9,which is within present day practice for turbines operating under 575 feet head. On the basis of information from turbine manufacturers and the studies on the power plant layout,the centerline of the turbine distributor has been set at 30 feet below minimum tailwater level. The final setting of the unit will be established in conjunction with the turbine manufacturer after the contract for the supply of the turbine equipment has been awarded. Because of the relatively short penstocks and the surge tank loca- tion immediately downstream from the powerhouse,the hydraulic transient characteristics of the turbines are favorable. The regulating ratio is above the minimum recommended by the USHR for good regulating.The unit speed rise and penstock capacity pressure rise are within normal accepted values.Because of the relatively short distance between the turbine and the tailrace surge tank and the deep unit setting,no problems with draft tube column separation are expected. As discussed in Section 12.16 for Watana,the units will be cap- able of operation from about 5(J to 100 percent load.Considera- tions for draft tube surges and corresponding power swings as men- tioned for Watana also will apply to uevil Canyon. As with watana,the relationship between generator natural fre- quency and the possible draft tube surge frequency will require stUdy in later design stages.Because of the high capacity factor for the Devil Canyon units,part load operation for these turbines is not as critical as at Watana;therefore,the possibility of prob 1ems wi th power swi ngs wi 11 be 1ess of a concern than at Watana. Generators The four generators in the Devil Canyon powerhouse will be of the vertical shaft,overhung semi-umbrella type directly connected to the vertical Francis turbines. The generators will be similar in construction and design to the Watana generators and the general features described in Section 12.16 for the stator,rotor,excitation system,and other details which apply for the Devil Canyon generators. The rating and characteristics of the generators are as follows: I \ !J Rated Capac ity: Rated Power: 180 MVA,0.9 power factor with over- load rating of 115 percent. 162 MW 13-31 A governor system with electric hydraulic governor actuators will be provided for each of the Dev il Canyon un its.The system wi 11 be the same as for Watana. Pumping operation will be continuous;therefore,pumping equipment wi 11 be conservat ively designed to provide effic ient operat ion with minimal maintenance.Crane access will be provided for the pumps,motors,and valves to permit equipment servicing. A single pump intake will be located in the surge chamber with an 8-foot-diameter intake tunnel leading to the powerhouse.The in- take tunnel will bifurcate into individual pump intake conduits within the powerhouse.The pump discharges will converge into a single pump discharge line. 13.16 -Miscellaneous Mechanical Equipment (a)Compensation Flow Pumps The two pumps for providing nnn mum discharge into the Susitna River between the dam and the tailrace tunnel outlet portal will be vertical mixed flow type located in the powerhouse service bay below the main erection floor,as shown on Plate 66.Each pump will be rated at 250 cfs (115,000 gal/min)at 35 feet total head, and will be driven by 1,400-hp induction motors. ) l I \ r ! I l l I ) 1 I J 1 1 225 rpm 3.5 MW -Sec/MVA 15 kV,3 phase,60 Hertz 1.1 (minimum) 98 percent (minimum) Rated Voltage: Inertia Constant: Short Circuit Ratio: Synchronous Speed: Efficiency at Full Load: (d) Governor System Butterfly type valves will be installed in the intake and dis- charge 1 ines of each pump to permit isolation of a pump for in- spection and maintenance.Trash screen guides and a trash screen will be provided in the surge chamber at the pump intake.It will ------be-poss-ible-to-r-emove --the-trashscreen--using-the-draft -tube-gate crane discussed below.The width of the guides will be selected so that one of the turb ine draft tube gates may be install ed in the intake to permit dewatering the pump intake tunnel for inspec- tion and/or maintenance of the tunnel or the intake butterfly valves.Stoplog guides and a set of stoplogs will also be pro- vided at the downstream end of the pump discharge tunnel to allow the discharge tunnel to be dewatered.The stoplogs will be handled with a mobile crane and a follower. In the detailed design stages,consideration will also be given to turbine-driven rather than electric motor-driven pumps.A header from at least two of the main turbine penstocks would supply water to the turbines,with the turbine draft tubes connected to the pump discharge. (b)Powerhouse Cranes Two overhead type powerhouse cranes will be provided at Devil Can- yon as at Watana.The estimated crane capacity will be 200 tons. I ) I\I I ) I IlJ I III 11 (c) ( d) (e) Draft Tube Gates Draft tube gates will be provided to permit dewatering of the tur- bine water passages for inspection and maintenance of the tur- b ines.The arrangement of the draft tube gates wi 11 be the same as for Watana,except that only two sets of gates will be pro- vided,each set with two 2l-foot-wide by lO.5-foot-high sections. At the time of starting of Unit 1,one gate will be installed in Unit 4 with the other gate available for Unit 1.Bulkhead domes will be installed in Units 2 and 3. Draft Tube Gate Crane A crane will be installed in the surge chamber for installation and removal of the draft tube gates.The crane will be either a monorail (or twin monorail)crane or a gantry crane.For the pre- liminary design,a twin monorail crane of approximately 30-ton capacity has been assumed.The crane will be pendant-operated and have a two point lift.A follower will be used with the crane for handl ing the gates.The crane runway will be located along the upstream side of the surge chamber and will extend over the intake for the compensation flow pumps,as well as a gate unloading area at one end of the surge chamber. Miscellaneous Cranes and Hoists In add it ion to the powerhouse cranes and draft tube gate cranes, the following cranes and hoists will be provided in the power plant: - A 5-ton monorail hoist in the transformer gallery for transfor- mer ma intenance; -Small overhead,jib,or A-frame type hoists in the machine shop for handling material;and A-frame or monorail hoists in other powerhouse areas for hand- 1ing small equipment.' (f)E1ev ators Access and service elevators will be provided for the power plant as follows: 13-33 [iii] - Access elevator from the control building to the powerhouse; -Service elevator in the powerhouse service bay;and -Inspection hoists in cable shafts. (g)Power Plant Mechanical Service Systems The power plant mechanical service systems for Devil Canyon will be essentially the same as discussed in Section 12.17 for Watana, except for the following: - There will be no main generator breakers in the power pl ant; therefore,circuit breaker air will not be required.The high- pressure air system will be used only for governor as well as instrument air.The operating pressure will be 600 to 1,000 psig depending on the governor system operating pressure. -An air-conditioning system will be installed in the powerhouse control room. - Heating and ventilating will be required for the entrance build- ing to the access shaft in the left abutment. - For prel iminary design purposes,only one drainage and one de- watering sump have been provided in the powerhouse.The de- watering system will also be used to dewater the intake and dis- charge lines for the compensation flow pumps. (h)Surface Facilities Mechanical Service Systems The entrance building above the power plant will have only a heat- ing and ventilation system.The mechanical services in the stand- by power building will include a heating and ventilation system, a fuel oil system,and a fire protection system, as at Watana. (i)Machine Shop Facilities A machine shop and tool room will be located in the powerhouse service bay area to take care of maintenance work at the pl ant. -----lhef-ac-Hit-ies wi 11·not .be-as-extens-ive--as--at--Wat-ana~---Some of the larger components will be transported to Watana for necessary machinery work. 1J.17 - Accessory Electrical Equipment (a) General The accessory electrical equipment described below includes the following main electrical equipment: -Main generator step-up 15/345 kV transformers; -Isolated phase bus connecting the generator and transformers; -345 kV oil-filled cables from the transformer terminals to the switchyard; - Control systems;and -Station service auxiliary ac and dc systems. 13-34 1 l I .'! I I I I I I 'J 1 I 1 I Other equipment and systems described include grounding,lighting system and communications. The main equipment and connections in the power plant are shown in the single line diagram,(Plate 70).The arrangement of equipment in the powerhouse,transformer gallery,and cable shafts is shown in Plates 65 to 67. (b)General Design Considerations for Transformers and HV Connections ) I] I ! l I (i )General Twelve single-phase transformers and one spare transformer will be located in the transformer gallery.Each bank of the three sing 1e-phase transformers wi 11 be connected to one generator by isolated phase bus located in bus tunnels. The HV terminal s of the transformer will be connected to the 345 kV switchyard by 345 kV single-phase oil-filled cables installed in 800-foot long vertical shafts.There will be two sets of three single-phase 345 kV oil-filled cables installed in each cable Shaft.One additional set will be maintained as a spare three-phase cable circuit in the second cable shaft.These cable shafts will also con- tain the control and power cables between the powerhouse and the surface control room, as well as emergency power cables from the diesel generators at the surface to the underground facilities. As described in Section 12.18 for the Watana power plant,a number of considerations led to the choice of the above opt imum system of transformat ion and connect ions.Di f- ferent alternative methods and equipment designs were also considered.In summary,these are: - One transformer per generator versus one transformer for two generators; -Underground transformers versus surface transformers; -Direct transformation from generator voltage to 345 kV versus intermediate step transformation to 230 kV or 161 kV, and thence to 345 kV; - Si ngl e phase versus three-phase transformers for each alternative method considered;and -Oil-filled cable versus solid dielectric cable or SF6gas-insulated bus. Reliability considerations are based on the general reli- ability requirements for generation and transmission des- cribed in Section 15 regarding the forced outage of a single generator,transformer,bus or cable in addition to planned or scheduled outages in a single contingency situa- tion,or a subsequent outage of'equipment in the double contingency situation.In the first case,the system should be capable of readjustment after the outage for 13-35 (c)Main Transformers loading within normal ratings and, in the second case, within emergency ratings. The transformers will be of the single phase, two-winding,oil- immersed,forced-oil water-cooled (FOW)type.A total of twelve single-phase transformers and one spare transformer will be pro- vided,with rating and characteristics as follows: Isolated phase bus connections will be located between the genera- tor and the main transformer.The bus will be of the self-cooled, welded aluminum tubular type with design and construction details generally similar to the bus at the Watana power plant.The rat- ing of the main bus is as follows: .j I l I l I ~ J~'] \ ) 1 1 ! ! 70 MVA 3454J3 kV,grounded Y 1300 kV 15 k V,Ue lta ..·15 percent . For the same reasons as given in Section 12.18 for Watana, surface transformers and the double-step transformation scheme (15/161 kV generator-transformer,161 kV cable and 161/345 kV auto-transformer at the swi tchyard)were rul ed out.The direct transformation (15/345 kV)scheme with 345 kV oil-filled cables is considered a better overall scheme. The one transformer per generator scheme was selected since the operation of the Devil Canyon power plant will essen- tially be a continuous base-load type operation;also the smaller number of units at Devil Canyon compared to Watana will allow a transformer gallery of reasonable length for a unit generator-transformer scheme. As at Watana,transport limitations for both dimensions and weight will preclude the use of the larger size three-phase transformers;hence,single-phase transformers will be used.Une distinct advantage of single-phase transformers is that a spare transformer can be provided at a fairly low incremental cost. Rated capac ity: High Voltage Winding: Basic Insulation Level (BIL) of HV Winding: Low Voltage Winding: ..-rr an sformel"'Impedan Ge·: (d)Generator Isolated Phase Bus Rated current: Short circuit current momentary: Short circuit current symmetrical: Basic Insul ation Level (BIL): 9,000 amps 240,000 amps 150,000 amps 150 kV II I.) I] I] ) I J 11 (e)345 kV Oil-Filled Cable The general design considerations leading to the choice of the 345 kV oil-filled cable for the connections between the transformer HV terminals and the 345 kV switchyard at the surface are the same as described in Section 12.18 for the Watana plant. The cables will be rated for a continuous maximum current of 400 amps at 345 kV +5 percent.The cables will be of single-core con- struction with oil flowing through a central oil duct within the copper conductor.The cables will be installed in the 800-foot cable shafts from the transformer gallery to the surface.No cable jointing will be necessary for this installation length. (f)Control Systems (i)General The Devil Canyon power plant will be designed to be oper- ated as an unattended pl ant.The plant wi 11 be normally contro 11 ed through superv i sory control from the Sus itna Area Control Center at Watana.The plant will,however, be provided with a control room with sufficient control,indi- cation,and annunciation equipment to enable the plant to be operated during emergencies by one operator in the con- trol room.In addition,for the purpose of testing and commissioning and maintenance of the plant,local control boards wi 11 be mounted on the powerhouse floor near each unit. Automatic load-frequency control of the four units at Devil Canyon will be accompl ished through the central computer- aided contro 1 system located at the Watana Area Control Center. The power plant wi 11 be provided with "bl ack s t ar t"capa- bility similar to that provided at Watana,to enable the start of one unit without any power in the powerhouse or at the switchyard,except that provided by one emergency die- sel generator.After the start-up of one unit,auxiliary station service power will be established in the power plant and the switchyard;the remaining generators can then be started one after the other tD bring the plant into full output within the hour. As at the Watana power pl ant,the control system will be designed to permit local-manual or local-automatic start- ing,voltage adjusting,synchronizing,and loading of the unit from the powerhouse control room at Devil Canyon. The protective relaying system is shown in the main single line diagram (Plate 70)and is generally similar to that provided for the Watana power plant. 13-37 (g)Station Service Auxiliary AC and DC Systems (i)AC Auxiliary System The station service system will be designed to acnieve a reliable and economic distribution system for the power plant and the switchyard and surface facilities.The aux- iliary system will be similar to that in the Watana power plant except that the switchyard and surface facilities power will be obtained from a 4.16 kV system supplied by two 5/7.5 MVA,OAlFA,oil-immersed transformers connected to generators Nos.1 and 4,respectively.The 4.16 kV double-ended switchgear will be located in the powerhouse. It will have a normally-open tie breaker which will prevent parallel operation of the two sections.The tie breaker will close on failure of one or the other of the incoming supplies.The 1400 hp compensation flow pumps will be sup- pl ied with power directly from the 4.16 kV system.·Two 4.16 cables installed in the cable shafts will supply power to the surface facilities. The 480 V station service system will be exactly similar to the Watana system described in Section 12.18,and will con- sist of a main 480 V switchgear,separate auxiliary boards for each unit,an essential auxiliaries board,and ~gener- al auxiliaries board.The main 480 V switchgear will be supplied by two 2000 kVA,15,000/480 V grounded wye sealed gas dry-type transformers.A third 2000 kVA transformer will be maintained as a spare. Two emergency diesel generators,each rated 500 kW,will be connected to the 480 V powerhouse main switchgear and 4.16 kV surface switchboard,respectively.Both diesel genera- tors will be located at the surface. An uninterruptible high-security power supply will be pro- vided for the supervisory computer-aided plant control systems. (ii)DC Auxiliary Station Service System The dc auxiliary system will be similar to that provided at the Watana plant and will consist of two 125 Vdc lead-acid batteries.Each battery system will be suppl ied by a double rectifier charging system. A 48 Vdc battery system will be provided for supplying the supervisory and communi- cat ions systems. (iii)Black Start Capability As at the Watana power plant,the Devil Canyon power plant will be provided with "black start"capability which will enable the plant to start up in a completely "blacked out" condition of the power plant and/or the power system. 13-38 11 I ) ( I I I LJ IJ (h)Other Accessory Electrical Systems The other accessory electrical systems including the grounding system,lighting system,and powerhouse communications system will be simil ar in general design and construction aspects to the systems described in Section 12.18 for the Watana power plant. 13.18 -Switchyard Structures and Equipment (a)Single Line Diagram The electric system studies recommended a "breaker-and-a-hal t" single line arrangement.This arrangement was recommended for reliability and security of the power system.Plate 89 shows the details of the switchyard single line diagram. Devil Canyon will be the main switching station for the generation and transmission system.Five lines will emanate from this switchyard,with three going to Anchorage and two going to Fair- banks. (i)Control and Metering All control and metering functions are handled by the Watana control center.The Willow System Center can also in it i ate a control funct ion through the Watan a control center. (ii)Relay Protection Relay protection for transmission lines is similar to that described in Section 14.5.Protection for 345 kV cable from the powerhouse is described under Section 12.19. (b)Switchyard Equipment The number of 345 kV circuit breakers is determined by the number of elements to be switched such as 1 ines or in-feeds from the powerhouse.Each breaker will be equipped with two disconnect switches to allow safe maintenance. The auxiliary power for the switchyard will be obtained from the generator bus via a 15 -4.16 kV transformer and 4.16 kV cable. The voltage will then be stepped down to 480 V for local use. (c)Switchyard Structures and Layout The switchyard layout will be based on a convenFional outdoor type design.The design adopted for this project will provide a two level bus arrangement.This design is commonly known as a low station profile. 13-39 The two-level bus arrangement is desirable because it is less prone to extensive damage in case of an earthquake.Due to the lower heights,it is also easier to maintain. Although the present studies considered conventional switchyard layouts,it is recommended that gas-insulated station equipment be considered in the design stage.A more detailed discussion is presented in Section 14. 13.19 -Project Lands Project lands acquired for the project will be the mlnlmum necessary to construct access and site facil ities,construct permanent facil ities, to clear the reservoir,and to operate the project. A large amount of public land in the Devil Canyon area is managed by the Bureau 'of Land I~anagement.There are 1arge blocks of private Native Village Corporation Lands along the river.Other private hold- ings consist of widely scattered remote parcels.The state has select- ed much of the federal 1 and in this area and is expected to receive a patent. 1 1 l 1 l ! I .j 1 I J ! r LIST OF REFERENCES f~1 1 j 1- f ] i) J I J 1] (] LJ !IL~ Acres American Incorporated,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,1980-81 Geotechnical Report, prepared for the Alaska Power Authority, February 1982. 1 l TABLE 13.1:WATANA PEAK WORK FORCE AND CAMP/VILLAGE DESIGN POPULATION ] [~] 11 I) I 1\J !J I \ LJ j I.s Calendar Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Yearly Peak Force 180 730 1635 2455 3180 3180 2000 770 455 CamplVlllage Deslgn 200 800 1800 2700 3500 3500 2200 850 500 ·J TABLE 13.2:ARCH DAM EXPERIENCE Dam Height Crest Length (Year Completed)Location ft(m)ft(m) Inguri Georgia,892 2,513 l(1985)USSR (272)(766) Vaiont Veneto,858 624 (1961 )Italy (262)(190) Mauvoisin Valais,777 1,706 (1957)Switzer land (237)(520) Chirkei North Caucasas,764 1,109 \(1975)USSR (233)(338) El Cajon Yoro/Cortes,741 1,253 (1964)Honduras (226)(382) &'>1 Contra Ticino,722 1,246 (1965)Switzerland (220)(380) Glen Canyon Arizona,710 1,560 J(1964)USA (216)(475) Mohamed Reza Khouzestan,666 696 Shah Pahlav i Iran (203)(212) .i(1963) Almendra Salmanca,662 1,860 (1970)Spain (202)(567) JVidraruArges,Rumania 549 1,000 (167)(305) Gokcekaya Turkey 525 1,622 (160)(495) lvbrrow Point Colorado 465 720 (141 )(218) Pacoima California 372 589 (113)(180) I f1,....1 fl TABLE 13.3:PRELIMINARY COMPENSATION FLOW PUMP DATA Type •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••vertical,axial,or mixed flow Rated head (total dynamic level)•••••••••••••••••••••••••35 ft Rated discharge •••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••••••••••••••115,000 gal/min Pump input •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••1,300 hp Speed ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••400 rpm Impeller diameter ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••51 in (approx.) Motor Type •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••vert ical induct ion Rated power ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••1,400 hp Voltage ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••4,160 VII Speed 400 rpm I \!J tJ IJ No. phases ••.••.•••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••3 Frequency ••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••60 hz TABLE 13.4:PRELIMINARY UNIT DATA 1 -GENERAL DATA - Number of units ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••4 - Nominal un it out put ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••150 MW -Headwater levels -normal maximum El 1445 - minimum El 1395 -Tailwater levels -minimum •..•...••....•...•....•••..••...•••..••.......E1 847 -normal ..•...•....•....•••...••.•.••...•.•....•••....•EL 849 -maximum ••••.•••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••E1 868 2 -TURBINE DATA - Type •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••vertical Francis -Rated net head •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••575 ft -Maximum head •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••600 ft - Minimum head •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••542 ft -Full gate output: -at rated level 225,000 hp -at maximum head ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••240,000 hp -at minimum head 205,000 hp -Best gate output •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••85%full gate output -Full gate discharge at rated head ••••••••••••••••••••••3,790 cfs -Speed ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••225 -Specific speed •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••37.9 -Runner discharge diameter ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••135 in - Runaway speed ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••405 rpm -Centerline distributor •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••El.817 -Cavitation coefficient (sigma)•••••••••••••••••••••••••0.106 3 -GENERATOR DATA 1 ..~ - Type ••I.'••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• - Rated output .................•..•..................•... - Power factor ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• -Volt age ...............•..............•..............••. -Inert ia const ant (H)*. - Synchronous speed .:2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• -Flywheel effect (WR )*••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ___________________________-__~H~e.a••.viest lift ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••• *Including turbine vert ical semi- umbrella 180 MVA 0.9 15 kV 3.5 MW-sec/MVA 225 rpm 54 x 10 6 lb-ft 2 750,000 Ib -.{ [Ju ,'....'I I ,I ! IILJ ( 1 \..J LJ \ 1\ \ \ \ \, \ \ \ \ o ~ 0 zIf)p 0CJ)....lL en z O::w 0 I.LI>i=2:0::~0::> 0 IIJ ZO..J(\J 1&1 o(!)CJ) a::>-zIIJz-....«~~ 0 00:: c(....J l18 >0 :J:I.LI CJ)C oo CJ) o CJ) CD o 10 o (\J (S.:IO)39Y'1HOSIO o o G) CD i-) !J (! 620 1-) 600 I 1 i J '----1 I )580 I- [] LLI LLILI. I C <t LLI [1 :I: 560I-,J LLI Z 540 520 115 CVa GENERATOR RA ED POWER . RESERVOIR EL. 1455 /----// I /vr-WEIGHTED AVERAGE H AD BES GATE / /i I /~GENERAT PR RATED POWERI /JI BEST EFFIC ENCY7 FULL GATE I RESER 'OIR IEL.1400 MINIMUM DEC EMBER HEAD I --/ ....-15 ) MW I] u [J U I !L-----1 100 120 140 160 UNIT OUTPUT- MW 180 200 220 DEVIL CANYON - UNIT OUTPUT FIGURE 13.2 ~~r-, v v / /V V v ~ -:V r-: II [] 'lI) ']I)90 jJ ;R~ >-uz 1 1 w u 80\1 iL lL. W (~-)W ~ OJ 0::::> I- il 70 I ] II u U I_J !J 40,000 80,000 120POO 160,000 200,000 TURBINE OUTPUT (HP) DEVIL CANYON -TURBINE PERFORMANCE (AT RATED HEAD) 240,000 4000 -(I) lL. 30003 w (!) 0::« :I:u (I) is I- 2000 Z::> 1000 FIGURE 13.3 II LJ u [J LJ !J 11 14 -TRANSMISSION FACILITIES The objective of this section is to describe the studies performed to select a power delivery system from the Susitna River basin generating plants to the major load centers in Anchorage and Fairbanks.This sys- tem will be comprised of transmission lines,substations,a dispatch center,and means of communications. The major topics of the transmission studies include: -Electric system studies; -Transmission corridor selection; -Transmission route selection; -Transmission towers,hardware and conductors; -Substations;and - Dispatch center and communications. Further discussion of the importance of these studies in determining the method of operation of the Railbelt System is presented in Section 15. In this section,each of the major topics will be discussed with re- spect to previous studies,methodology,additional data obtained,and conclusions arising from the studies. 14.1 -Electric System Studies Transmission planning criteria were developed to ensure the design of a reliable and economic electrical power system, with components rated to allow a smooth transition through early project stages to the ultimate developed potential. Strict application of optimum,long-term criteria would require the installation of equipment with ratings larger than necessary at exces- sive cost.In the interest of economy and long-term system perfor- mance,these criteria were temporarily relaxed during the early devel- opment stages of the project.Although allowi ng for sat i sfactory operation during early system development,final system parameters must be based on the ultimate Susitna potential. The criteria are intended to ensure maintenance of rated power flow to Anchorage and Fairbanks during the outage of any single line or trans- former element.The essential features of the criteria are: - Total power output of Susitna to be delivered to one or two stations at Anchorage and one at Fairbanks; - "Breeker-and-a-hal f"switching station arrangements; 14-1 Overvoltages during line energizing not to exceed specified limits; -System voltages to be within established limits during normal opera- tion; -Power delivered to the loads to be maintained and system voltages to be kept within established limits for system operation under emer- gency conditions; -Transient stability during a 3-phase line fault cleared by breaker action with no reclosing;and -Where performance limits are exceeded, the most cost effective cor- rective measures are to be taken. (a)Existing System Data Data compiled in a draft report by Commonwealth Associates Inc., (1)Has been used for preliminary transmission system analysis; and (2) Other system data were obtained in the form of single- line diagrams from the various utilities. (b)Power Transfer Requirements The Susitna transmission system must be designed to ensure the reliable transmission of power and energy generated by the Susitna Hydroelectric Project to the load centers in the Railbelt area. The power transfer requi rements of thi s transmi ssi on s'ystem are determined by the following factors: -System demand at the various load centers; - Generating capabilities at the Susitna project;and - Other generation available in the Railbelt area system. Most of the electric load demand in the Railbelt area is located in and around two main centers:Anchorage and Fairbanks.The largest load center is Anchorage,with most of its load concen- ---t rated in the An chorage urban area.The second largest load cen- ..t£L_Ls_Eaj_r.b_anks_.Iw.o_smaJJ_lo_ad_c_ent_e.Ls_CWJ_LLo_w_arld_I:l€_aJ.y-t-a r 8_ located along the Susitna transmission route.The only other sig- nificant load centers in the Rai lbelt region are Glennallen and Valdez,however,their combined demand is expected to be less than 2 percent of the total Railbelt demand in the foreseeable future. A survey of past and present load demand levels as well as various forecasts of future trends indicates these approximate load levels at the various centers: 1:\ I I ,] :1'. :I I 1 I J i~j I 1 1 I I I 1 I 1 ! I I 1 14-3 The resulting power transfer requirements for the Susitna trans- mission system are indicated in Table 14.1. 78 20 2 Percent of Total Rai lbelt LoadLoadArea Anchorage -Cook Inlet Fairbanks -Tanana Valley Glennallen - Valdez Development of other generation resources could alter the geo- graphic load and generation sharing in the Railbelt,depending on the location of this development.However,current studies indi- cate that no other very large projects are likely to be developed until the full potential of the Susitna project is utilized.The proposed transmission configuration and design should,therefore, be able to satisfy the bulk transmission requirements for at least the next two decades.The next major generation development after Susitna will then require a transmission system determined by its own magnitude and location. The potential of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project is expected to be developed in three or four stages as the system load grows over the next two decades.The transmission system must be designed to serve the ultimate Susitna development,but staged to provide reliable transmission at every intermediate stage.Present plans call for three stages of Susitna development: 680 MW at Watana in 1993 followed by an additional 340 MW in 1997; and, 600 MW at Devil Canyon in 2002. Accordingly,it has been assumed for study purposes that approxi- mately 80 percent of the generation at Susitna will be transmitted to the Anchorage area and 20 percent to Fairbanks.To account for the uncertainties in future local load growth and local generation development,the Susitna transmission system was designed to be able to transmit a maximum of 85 percent of Susitna generation to Anchorage and a maximum of 25 percent to Fairbanks. Considering the geographic location and the currently projected magnitude of the total load in the area,transmission to Glenn- allen-Valdez is not likely to be economical in the foreseeable future.If it is ever to be economical at all,it would likely be a direct radial extension,either from Susitna or from Anchorage. In either case,its relative magnitude is too small to have significant influence on either the viability or development characteri st ics of the Susitna project or the transmi ssi on from Susitna to the Anchorage and Fairbanks areas. IJ U !J U U (c) Transmission Alternatives Having established the peak power to be delivered and the dis- tances over which it is to be transmitted,transmission voltages and number of circuits required were determined.To mai ntai n a consistency with standard ANSI voltages used in other parts of the United States,the following voltages were considered for Susitna transmission: Because of the geographic location of the various centers,trans- mission from Susitna to Anchorage and Fairbanks will result in a radial system configuration.This allows significant freedom in the choice of transmission voltages,conductors,and other para- meters for the two line sections,with only limited dependence between them. In the end,the advantages of standardizati on for the entire system will have to be compared to the benefits of optimizing each section on its own merits.Transmission alterna- tives were developed for each of the two system areas,including voltage levels,number of circuits required,and other parameters, to satisfy the necessary transmission requirements of each area. 500 kVor 345 kV 345 kV or 230 kV Susitna to Anchorage Susitna to Fairbanks Transmission at either of two different voltage levels (345 kV or 500 kV)could reasonably provide the necessary power transfer capabi1ity over the di stance of approximately 140 miles between Devil Canyon and Anchorage.The required, transfer capability of 1,377 MW is 85 percent of the ulti- mate generating capacity of 1,620 MW.At 500 kV,two cir- cuits woul d provide more than adequate capacity.At 345 kV,either three circuits uncompensated or two circuits with series compensation are required to provide the necessary reliability for the single contingency outage criterion.At lower voltages,an excessive number of pi:!rcillel circuits are required,while above 500 kV,two ctrcuitsare~sei-l-l-~rreErde-d-t~o··pro\;r;-ae--ser vic~e--in-ffj e-·eVe n'r . of a line outage. Applying the same reasoning used in choosing the transmis- sion alternatives to Anchorage,two circuits of either 230 kV or 345 kV were chosen for the section from Devil Canyon to Fairbanks.The 230 kV alternative requires series compensation to satisfy the planning criteria in case of a line outage. (i) (i i) -Watana to Devil Canyon and on to Anchorage: - Devil Canyon to Fairbanks: J J 1 [ 1J LJ U U U (iii)Total System Alternatives The transmission section alternatives mentioned above were combined into five realistic total system alternatives. Three of the five alternatives have different voltages for the two sections.The principal parameters of the five transmission system alternatives analyzed in detai 1 are as fo 11 ows: Susitna to Anchorage Susitna to Fairbanks Number of Number of Alternative Circuits Voltage Circuits Vo ltage (kV)(kV) 1 2 345 2 345 2 3 345 2 345 3 2 345 2 230 4 3 345 2 230 5 2 500 2 230 Electric system analyses,including simulations of line energiz- ing,load flows of normal and emergency operating conditions,and transient stability performance,were carried out to determine the technical feasibility of the various alternatives.An economic comparison of transmission system life cycle costs was carried out to evaluate the relative economic merits of each alternative.All five transmission alternatives were found to have acceptable per- formance characteristics.The most significant difference was that single-voltage systems (345 kV,Alternatives 1 and 2)and systems wi thout seri es compensat i on (Alternat ive 2)offered re- duced complexity of design and operation and therefore were likely to be margi na lly more re1i ab 1e.The present-worth 1ife cyc1e costs of Alternatives 1 through 4 were all within one percent of each other.On ly the cost of the 500/230 kV scheme (Al ternat ive 5)was 14 percent above the others.A summary of the life cycle cost analyses for the various alternatives is shown in Table 14.2. Full details of the technical and economic comparisons are ex- plained in a separate report (2). A technical and economic comparison was also carried out to deter- mine possible advantages and disadvantages of HVDC transmission, as compared to an ac system,for transmi tt i ng Sus itna power to Anchorage and Fairbanks.As outlined in (2),HVDC transmission was found to be technically and operationally more complex as well as having higher life cycle costs. (d)Configuration at Generation and Load Centers Interconnections between generation and load centers and the transmission system were developed after reviewing the existing 14-5 system configurations at both Anchorage and Fairbanks as well as the possibilities and current development plans in the Susitna, Anchorage,Fairbanks,Willow, and Healy areas. (i)Susitna Configuration Preliminary development plans indicated that the first project to be constructed would be Watana with an i niti al installed capacity of 680 MW,to be increased to 1020 MW in the second development stage.The next project,and the last to be considered in this study,would be Devil Canyon, with an installed capacity of 600 MW. (ii)Switching at Willow Transmiss i on from Susitna to Anchorage is faci 1itated by the introduction of an intermediate switching station. This has the effect of reducing line energizing overvolt- ages and reducing the impact of line outages.on system stability.Willow is a suitable location for this inter- mediate switching station;in addition,it would make it possible to supply local load when this is justified by development in the area.This local load is expected to be less than 10 percent of the total Railbelt area system load,but the availability of an EHV line t ap vwoul d defi- nitely facilitate future power supply. (iii)Switching at Healy A switching station at Healy was considered early in the analysi s but was found to be unnecessary to sati sfy the planning criteria.The predicted load at Healy is small enough to be supplied by local generation and the existing 138 kV transmission from Fairbanks. (iv)Anchorage Configuration In its 1975 report on the Upper Susitna River Hydroelectric ---Stud+es(3);the eeE f avoreda--transmi-ss+on-Toute-termi-n-at-.. ing at Point MacKenzie. A 1979 report for the Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie by International Engineering Company,Inc.(4)recommended one circuit from Susitna terminating at Point MacKenzie and another pass ing through Palmer and Ek 1utna substat ions to Anchorage along the eastern side of Knik Arm. Analysis of system configuration,distribution of loads, and development in the Anchorage area led to the conclusion that a transformer station near Palmer would be of little benefit.Most of the major loads are concentrated in and -l J -'~J J J ] ~'~J ) J j 1 J 1 ,J ] ,,-J I ] [l rl lJ around the urban Anchorage area at the mouth of Knik Arm. In order to reduce the length of subtransmission feeders, the transformer stations should be located as close to Anchorage as possible. The routing of transmission into Anchorage may be chosen from the following three possible alternatives: - Submarine Cable Crossing From Point MacKenzie to Point Woronzof This would require transmission through a very heavily developed area.It would also expose the cables to damage by sh i ps'anchors,which has been the experience with existing cables,resulting in questionable transmis- sion reliability. Overland Route North of Knik Arm via Palmer This may be most economical in terms of capital cost in spite of the long distance involved.However,approval for this route is unlikely since overhead transmission through this developed area is considered environmentally un accept ab 1e. A longer over1and route around the deve l- oped area is considered unacceptable because of the mountainous terrain. - Submarine Cable Crossing of Knik Arm,In the Area of Lake Lorraine and Six Mile Creek This option,approximately parallel to the new 230 kV cable under construction for Chugach Electric Association (CEA),includes some 3 to 4 miles of submarine cable and requires a high capital cost.Since the area is upstream from the shipping lanes to the port of Anchorage,it will result in a reliable transmission link,and one that does not have to cross environmentally sensitive conservation areas. The third alternative is clearly the best of the three op- tions.The details of this configuration are as follows: -Submarine crossing with three cable circuits; - Switching station at Knik Arm east terminal; -Double-circuit,compact, overhead line at 345 kV into Anchorage; -Major transformer substation near University Substation; 14-7 - Routing approximately parallel to CEA's new 230 kV line. An alternative routing may be possible near the Knik Arm shoreline and into Anchorage from the north; -Tap for supply to Matanuska Electric Association (MEA), with transformation to 115 kV,at Knik Arm east terminal or along transmission route,if preferred;and -Tap for supply to Anchorage Municipal Light and Power (AML&P),with transformation to 115 kV near AML&P's Generating Station No.2 or at the transformer station near University Substation. With this configuration a different option is possible for the submarine cable crossing.To reduce cable costs the crossing could be constructed with two cable circuits plus one spare phase. This option requires a switching station at the west terminal of Knik Arm.A switching station at the west terminal would clearly require increased costs and complications for construction and operation as a result of poor access.It would also require a separate location for the tap to supply MEA. Plans are presently underway for a bridge crossing at Knik Arm for both railway and road traffic.If these plans should be realized,transmission costs and complications could be significantly reduced by routing the cables across the bridge. (v)Fairbanks Configuration Susitna power for the Fairbanks area is recommended to be delivered to a single EHV/138 kV transformer station lo- cated at Ester. (e)Recommended Transmission System The confi gurat i on of the recommended transmi ssi on system,(Alter... .-native2-)isshownon the si ng-le-lined-i-agr-am+~i-guY'e14.1).-The main characteristics of the recommended system are summarized in Table 14.3. 14.2 -Corridor Selection (a)Methodology Development of the proposed Susitna project will require a trans- mission system to deliver e·lectric power to the Railbelt area. The pre-building of the Intertie system will result in a corridor and route for the Susitna transmission lines between Wi 11 ow and ] ) J -) J ] 1 ) OJ .J 1 J J ] J ), 'J J J r 1 U u (J U u Healy.Therefore,three areas require study for corridor selection:the northern area to connect Healy with Fairbanks;the central area to connect the Watana and Devil Canyon damsites with the Intertie;and the southern area to connect Willow with Anchorage. The corridor selection methodology followed the Susitna study plan formulation and selection methodology.Previous studies,existing data,aerial reconnaissance and limited field studies formed the data base.Using the selection criteria discussed in paragraph (c) below,corridors 3 to 5 miles wide which met these criteria were se lected in each of the three study areas.These corri dors were then evaluated to determine which ones met the more specific screening criteria (see paragraph (d) below). This screening process resulted in one corridor in each area being designated as the recommended corridor for the transmission line.A more detailed discussion of study methodology and the selection and screening criteria is presented in a separate report (5). (b)Previous Studies The two reports reviewed which contained the most information relevant to the transmission line studies were: -The Upper Susitna River Basin Interim Feasibility Report,pre- pared by the CaE (3),hereafter referred to as the CaE report; and -The Economic Feasibility Study for the Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie (4),hereafter referred to as the IECa/RWRA report. The CaE report consisted primarily of an evaluation of alternative corridor locations to aid in the selection of those which maxi- mized reliability and minimized costs.Utilizing aerial photo- graphs and existing maps,general corridors connecting the project site with Anchorage and Fairbanks were selected.This study was general in nature and was intended only to demonstrate project feasibi 1i ty. The IECa/RWRA report utilized the CaE report as background infor- mation for both economic feasibility determination and route selection.The corridor selected by IECa/RWRA was very similar to that se1ected by the CaE with further defi nit ion.The route se- lected was based on shortest length,accessibility and environmen- tal compatibility.The report also presented a detailed economic feasibility study for the Anchorage-Fairbanks transmission inter- tie. 14-9 (c)Selectlon Crlterla and Selection Results (1)Criteri a The objectlve of the corrldor selectlon conducted by Acres was to select feasible transmlsslon llne corrldors ln each of the three study areas,1.e.,northern,central and southern.Technlcal,economi c,and environmental criteria were developed ln order to select the most optlmum corri- dors withln each of the three areas.These criteri a are listed in Table 14.4. Environmental inventory tables were then compiled for each corridor selected,l i st l nq length,number of road cross- ings,number of r i ver and creek crosslngs,topography, soils,land ownershlp/status,existing and proposed development,existlng rights-of-way,scenlc quality/recrea- tion,cultural resources,vegetatlon,f i sh, bi rds,fur- bearers,and b i q game.These tables are i nc luded in the Closeout Report. (i 1)Results Utllizing existlng lnformation,22 corridors were selected based on the i r ability to meet technlcal,economic and environmental criteria as listed ln Table 14.4 .• Three of the corridors are in the southern study area,15 til the central area,and four in the northern study area. Three of the corrldors ln the southern study area run in a north-south directlon,whlle one runs northeast to Palmer, then northwest to Wlll ow.Corrl dors 1n the central study area are ln two general groups: those running from Watana Dams ite west to the proposed Intert ie,and those runni ng north across the Denali Highway and the Chulitna Rl ver. Cort-i dors in the northern study area run ei ther west or east to bypass the Al askan Range,then proceed north to Fairbanks. Flgures 14.2,14.3,and 14.4 show the Iocat i on of these corridors. (d) Screenlng Crlterla and Screening Results (1)Criteri a The object 1ve of the screen i ng process was to screen the previously selected corrldors to determlne whlch ones best meet the technical,economlc,and envlronmental criteria as listed ln Table 14.5.The ratlonale for selection of these crlteria is explained in (5). ) ) ) ~1 r } } J ) J J ] .] 1 J .:.J ). J J (1 r 1 I In addition to these criteria,each corridor was screened for reliability.Six basic factors were considered: -Elevation:Lines located at elevations below 4000 will be less exposed to severe wind and ice condi- tions which can interrupt service. -Aircraft:Avoidance of areas near aircraft landing and takeoff operations will minimize the risk of power fai lures. -Stability:Avoidance of areas susceptible to land,ice, and snow slides will reduce the chance of power failures. -Topography:Lines located in areas with gentle relief will be easier to construct,repair,and maintain in operation. A - recommended C -acceptable but not preferred F -unacceptable The screening criteria and reliability factors for each corridor were evaluated utilizing topographic maps,aerial photos,aerial overflights,and published materials.Each corridor was then assigned four ratings (one each for tech- nical,economic and environmental considerations,and one overall summary rating.)Ratings were defined as follows: -Access:Lines located in reasonable proximity to transportation corridors will be more quickly accessible and,therefore,more quickly repaired if any failures occur. [J u u u [J From the technical point of view,reliability was the main object i vee An envi ronmenta lly and economica lly sound cor- ridor was rejected if it would be unreliable.Thus,any line which received an F technical rating was assigned a summary rating of F and eliminated from further consideration. Si mil arly,because of the crit ica1 importance of environ- mental considerations,any corridor which received an F rating for environmental impacts was assigned a summary rating of F, and eliminated from consideration. (i i)Results Table 14.6 summarizes the comparison of the corridors screened in the southern,central and northern study areas. One corri dor in each of the three study areas received A 14-11 ratings for all three categories.These three corridors, and the rationale for their A ratings,are discussed below. A description of all 22 corridors and the rationale for their ratings is given in (5). -Southern Study Area Corridor Two -Willow to Point MacKenzie via Red Shirt Lake Description Corridor ADFC,consisting of Segments ADF and FC (Figure 14.2),commences at the point of intersection with the Intertie in the vicinity of Willow but imme- di ate ly turns to the southwest,fi rst cross i ng the rai lroad,then the Parks Hi ghway,then Wi llow Creek just west of Willow.The land in the vicinity of this part of the segment is very flat,with wetlands domi- nat i ng the terrai n. Southwest of Florence Lake,the proposed corridor turns,crosses Rolly Creek,and heads nearly due south,pass i ng through extensi ve wet1ands west and south of Red Shirt Lake.The corridor in this area parallels existing tractor trails and crosses very flat lands with significant amounts of tall-growing vegetation in the better drained locations. Northwest of Yohn Lake, the corridor segment turns to the southeast,pass i ng Yohn Lake and My Lake before crossing the Little Susitna River.Just south of My Lake, the corridor turns in a southern direction, passing Middle Lake and east of Horseshoe Lake before finally intersecting the existing Beluga 230 kV trans- mission line at a spot just north of MacKenzie Point. From here,the corridor parallels MacKenzie Point's existing transmission facilities before crossing under Armtoemerge-on-the--eastern·shore-·of~n+k Arm--i-n- the vicinity of Anchorage,and then on to University Substation.The land in the vicinity of this segment is extremely fl at and wet.It supports stands of tall-growing vegetation on the higher or better drai ned areas. Technical and Economical Rating Corridor ADFC crosses the fewest number of rivers and roads in the southern study area.It has the advan- tage of paralleling an existing tractor trail for a good portion of its length,thereby reducing the need 14-12 ) 1 ) ) J 1 ) .l .J1 ) ) I r ) ) 11 I I n I \Ii -1 J I ILJ for new access roads.Easy access will allow mainte- nance and repairs to be carri ed out in mi nima1 ti me. This corridor also occurs at low elevations and is approximately one-half the length of Corridor One. Environmental Rating This corr idor cr os ses extens i ve wet1ands from Wi 11 ow to Point MacKenzie. At higher elevations,or in the better drained sites,extensive forest cover is encountered.Good agri cultura 1 soil s have been i den- tified in the vicinity of this corridor;the state plans an Agricultural Lands Sale for areas to be traversed by this corridor.The corridor also crosses the Sus itna Fl ats Game Refuge.The presence of an existing tractor trail near considerable portions of this corridor diminishes the significance of some of these constraints.Furthermore,its short length,and the fact that it crosses only one ri ver and ei ght creeks,increases its environmental acceptability. -Central Study Area Corridor One - Watana to Intertie via South Shore, Susitna River Descr i pt ion This corridor,ABCD (Figure 14.3),originates at the Watana Dam site and follows the southern boundary of the river at an elevation of approximately 2,000 feet from Watana to Devil Canyon.From Devil Canyon,the corri dor conti nues along the southern shore of the Susitna River at an elevation of about 1,400 feet to where it connects with the Intertie,assuming the In- tertie follows the railroad corridor.The land sur- face in this area is relatively flat,though incised at a number of locations by tributaries to the Susitna River.The relatively flat hills are covered by dis- continuous stands of dense,tall-growing vegetation. Technical and Economical Rating Corri dor One is one of the shortest corri dors con- sidered.It is approximately 40 miles long,making it economically favorable.No technical restrictions were observed along the entire length of this corri- dor. 14-13 Environmental Rating Because of its short length,environmental disturbance caused by transmission line construction would be reduced.The more noteworthy constrai nts are those identified under the categories of land use and vege- tation.Corridor One would require the development of a new right-of-way between Watana and Devi 1 Canyon, but would utilize the COE-developed road for access between the Intert ie and Devi 1 Canyon.Wet 1ands and discontinuous forest cover occur in the corridor, especially in the eastern third of the route.Access road development and the associated vegetation clear- ing present additional constraints to this corridor. -Northern Study Area Corridor One -Healy to Fairbanks via Parks Highway Description Corridor One (ABC),consisting of Segments AB and BC, starts in the vicinity of the Healy Power Plant (Figure 14.4).From here,the corridor heads north- west,crossing the existing Golden Valley Electric Association Transmission Line,the railroad,and the Parks Highway before turning to the north'and paral- leling this road to a point due west of Browne.Here, as a result of terrain features,the corrigor turns northeast,crossing the Parks Highway once again as we 11 as the exi st ing transmi ss ion 1ine,the Nenana River,and the railroad,and continues to a point northeast of the Clear Missile Early Warning Station (MEWS). Continuing northward,the corridor eventually crosses the Tanana River east of Nenana,then heads northeast, fi rst crossi ng Litt 1e Go ldstream Creek,then the Parks --H-i-ghwa-y-just-nor-th-of--the--Bonan-z-a-Gr-ee k-Exp er-ime nta-l- Forest.Before reaching Ohio Creek,this corridor turns back to the northeast,crossing the old Parks Highway and heading into the Ester Substation west of Fairbanks. Terrain along this entire corridor segment is rela- tively flat,with the exception of the foothills north of the Tanana Ri ver.Much of the route,especi ally that port i on between the Nenana and the Tanana Ri ver crossings,is very broad and flat.It has standing ) ) 1 I .I I I ) ) OJ ) "r ) ), :1 \ I ) I) f) (J I 1 i \LJ (J 1 I IIJ water during the summer months and, in some places,is overgrown by dense stands of tall-growing vegetation. This corridor segment crosses the heavily wooded foot- hills northeast of Nenana. An option to the above, not shown in the figures,has been considered,closely paralleling and sharing rights-of-way with the existing Healy-Fairbanks trans- mission line.While it is usually attractive to parallel existing corridors wherever possible,this opt ion necess i tates a great number of road cross ings and results in an extended length of the corridor paralleling the Parks Highway.A potentially significant amount of highway-abutting land would be usurped for containment of the right-of-way.The combination of these features precludes this optional corridor from further evaluation. Technical and Economical Rating This corridor crosses the fewest water courses in the northern study area.Although it is approximately four miles longer than Corridor Two,it is technically favored because .of the exi stence of potent ia1 access roads for almost the entire length. Environmental Rating Because it parallels an existing transportation corri- dor for much of its length,this corridor would permit line routing that would avoid most visually sensitive areas.The three proposed road crossings for this corridor (as opposed to the 19 road crossings of the Healy-Fairbanks transmission line)could occur at points where roadside development exists,in areas of visual absorption capability,or in areas recommended to be opened to long-distance views. Four rivers and 40 creeks with potential for impacts are crossed by th is corri dor,the fewest number of water courses of any route under consideration in the northern study area.The inactive nest site of a pair of peregrine falcons occurs within this proposed cor- ridor. As with visual impacts,land use,wildlife,and fish- ery resource impacts can be lessened through careful route selection and utilization of existing access. Impacts on forest clearing can be lessened through the sharing of existing transmission line corridors. 14-15 (e) Concluslons A revlew of prevlous reports,other ex i s t i nq lnformat i on ,and aerlal overfllghts was used to select corrldors for conslderatlon 1n th 1s study.These corr i dors were screened agal nst certal n technical,economic and envlronmental cr l t erla,resultlng ln one recommended corrldor in each of the southern,central and northern study areas.The corridors shown ln Figures 7.1 through 7.8 of the screen 1ng are be11 eyed to best meet the techni cal,economi c and envi ronment a1 cr i t.er t a;therefore,these corri dors are the best locatlons in whlch to place the Susitna transmisslon lines. 14.3 - Route Selectlon (a)Methodology After ldentlfYlng the preferred transmisslon line corrldors,the next step ln the route selection process lnvolved the analysis of the data as gathered and presented on the base map.Overlays were compiled so that various constralnts affectlng construction or malntenance of a transmission facility could be vlewed on a single map.The map is used to select posslble routes within each of the three selected corridors.By placing all major constraints (e.g., area of high vi sual exposure,pr i vate lands,endangered species, etc.)on one map,a route of least lmpact was selected.EXlsting facilities,such as transmission lines and tractor trails within the study area,were also considered dur i nq the selection of a least lmpacted route.Whenever possible,the routes were selected near eXlsting or proposed access roads,sharing whenever possible existlng rights-of-way. The data base used in thls analysis was obtained from the follow- ing sources: -An up-to-date land status study; - EXlsting aerlal photos; -New aerial photos conducted for selected sections of the pre- viously recommended transmission line corridors; -~----~--En-v-i-ronment alstudies-tnc.ludtnq.aestnet.tc.co ns.i.der;ations.; -Climatological studies; -Geotechnical exploration; -Additional fleld studies;and -Publlc opinlons. (b)Selection Crlterla The purpose of thls section is to identify three selected routes: one from Healy to Falrbanks,the second from the Watana and Devll Canyon damsites to the intertle,and the third from Wlllow to Anchorage. l 1 1 -I ! 1 1 I } 1 1 I I I 1 (' I j I, ] ) (c) The previ ously chosen corridors were subject to a process of refining and evaluation based on the same technical,economic, and environmental criteria used in corridor selection (see Table 14.5).In addition,special emphasis was concentrated on the following points: -Satisfy the regulatory and permit requirements; -Selection of routing that provides for minimum visibility from highways and homes;and -Avoidance of developed agricultural lands and dwellings. Environmental Analysis The corridors selected were analyzed to arrive at the route width which is the most compatible with the environment and also meet the engineering and economic objectives.The environmental analysis was conducted by the process described below: (i)Literature Review Data from vari ous 1i terature sources,agency communi ca- tions,and site visits were reviewed to inventory existing environmental variables.From such an inventory,it was possible to identify environmental constraints in the recommended corridor 1 ocat ions.Data sources were cata- loged and filed for later retrieval. I \ lJ (i i)Avoidance Routing by Constraint Analysis To establish the most appropriate location for a transmis- sion line route,it was necessary to identify those en- vi ronmenta 1 constraints that coul d be impedi ments to the development of such a route.Many specific constraints were identified during the preliminary screening;others were determined during the 1981 field investigations. By utilizing information on topography,existing and pur- posed land use,aesthetics,ecological features,and cul- tural resources as they exist within the corridors,and by careful placement of the route with these considerations in mind,impact on these various constraints was minimized. 11\1 I I(j i I \J (iii)Base Maps and Overlays Constraint analysis information was placed on base maps. Constrai nts were i dent i fi ed and presented on overl ays to the base maps.This mapping process involved using both existing information and that acquired through Susitna Project studies.This information was first categorized as to its potential for constraining the development of a 14-17 transmission line route within the preferred corridor and then placed on maps of the corridors.Environmental con- straints were identified and recorded directly onto the base maps.Overlays to the base maps were prepared indi- cating the type and extent of the encountered constraints. Three overlays were prepared for each map:one for visual constraints,one for man-made,and one for biological con- straints.These maps are presented as a separate document (6) . (d)Technical and Economic Analysis Route location objectives are to obtain an optimum combination of reliability and cost with the fewest e'nvironmental problems. In many cases,these objectives are mutually compatible. Throughout the evaluation,much emphasis was made to place the route relatively close to existing surface transportation facili- ties whenever possible. The factors that contributed heavily in the technical and economic analysis were:topography,climate and elevation,soils,length, and access roads.Other factors of less importance were vegeta- tion,and river and highway crossings.These factors are detailed in Tables 14.4 and 14.5. (i)Selection of Alternative Routes The next step in the route selection process involved the analysi s of the data gathered and presented on the base maps.The data were used to select possible routes within each corridor.By placing all major constraints on one map,routes of smallest impacts were selected.Existing facilities,such as transmission lines and tractor trails within the study area,were al~o taken into consideration during the selection of a least impact route. The evaluation and selection of alternative routes to arrive at a primary route involved a closer examination of each of the possible routes using mapping process and data previously described.Preliminary routes were compared to determine the route of least impact within the primary cor- ridors of each study area.For example, such variables as number of stream and road crossings requi red were noted. Then,following the field studies and through a comparison of routing data,including the route1s total length and its use of existing facilities,one route was designated the 14-18 [l, I [] I j[, l] primary route.Land use,land ownership,and visual impacts were key factors in the selection process. (e) Route Soil Conditions (i)Description Baseline geological and geotechnical information has been compiled through photointerpretation and terrain unit mapp- ing (7).The general objective was to document the condi- tions that would significantly affect the design and construction of the transmission line towers.More specif- ically,the conditions included the forms of various origins,noting the occurrence and distribution of signifi- cant geologic factors such as permafrost,potentially unstable slopes,potentially erodible soils,possible active fault traces,potential construction materials, active floodplains,organic materials,etc. Work on the ai rphoto i nterpretat ion consi sted of several activities culminating in a set of terrain unit maps showing surface materials and geologic features and conditions in the project area. The first activity consisted of a review of the literature concerning the geology of the Intertie corridors and trans- fer of the information gained to high-level photographs at a scale of 1:63,000.Interpretation of the high-level photos created a regional terrain framework which assisted in interpretation of the low-level 1:30,000 project photos. MajQr terrain divisions identified on the high-level photos were then used as an aerial guide for delineation of more detailed terrain units on the low-level photos.The primary effort of the work was the interpretation of over 140 photos covering about 300 square miles of varied terrain.The land area covered in the mapping exercise is shown on map sheets and displayed in detail on photo mo sai cs (7). As part of the terrain analysis,the various bedrock units and dominant lithologies were identified using published U.S.Geological Survey reports.The extent of these units was approximately shown on the photographs,and using exposure patterns,shade,texture,and other features of the rock unit as they appeared on the photographs,unit boundaries were drawn. Physical characteristics and typical engineering properties of each terrain unit were considered and a chart for each corridor was developed.The charts identify the terrain units as they have been mapped and characterize their 14-19 properties in numerous categories.This allows an assess- ment of each unit's influence on various project features. (ii)Terrain Unit Analysis The terrain unit is a special purpose term comprising the land forms expected to occur from the ground surface to a depth of about 25 feet. The terrain unit maps for the proposed Anchorage to Fair- banks transmission line show the aerial extent of the specific terrain units which were identified during the air photo invest igat i on and were corroborated in part by a limited onsite surface investigation.The units document the general geology and geotechnical characteristics of the area. The north and south corri dors are separated by several hundred miles and not surprisingly encounter different geomorphic provinces and climatic conditions.Hence,while there are many landforms (or individual terrain units)that are common to both corridors,there are also some landforms mapped in just one corridor.The landforms or individual terrain units mapped in both corridors were briefly described. Several of the landforms have not been mapped independently but rather as compound or complex terrain units.Compound terrain units result when one landform overlies a second recognized unit at a shallow depth (less than 25 feet), such as a thin deposit of glacial till overlying bedrock or a mantle of lacustrine sediments overlying till.Complex terrain units have been mapped where the surficial exposure pattern of two landforms are so intricately related that they must be mapped as a terrain unit complex, such as some areas of bedrock and colluvium.The compound and complex terrain units were described as a composite of individual 1andforms compri sing them.The stratigraphy,topographi c pas-i-t-t 0 n,andaeri a l-extentef--a-l-1Amit-s-,--a-s th e;y .appear-i n each corridor,were summarized on the terrain unit proper- ties and engineering interpretations chart (7). (f)Results and Conclusions A study of existing information and aerial overflights,together with additional aerial coverage,was used to locate the recommend- ed route in each of the southern,central,and northern study areas. Additional environmental information and land status studies made it possible to align the routes to avoid any restraints. ) OJ 1 -1 ! I 1 J ..1 1 J 1 ) ) 1 1 I 1 -I I 1\1 i I u lJ !I I"J Terrain unit maps describing the general material expected in the area were prepared specifically for transmission line studies and were used to locate the routes away from unfavorable soil conditions whenever possible. Figures 1 through 14 in (6)show the selected transmi ss ion 1ine route for the three areas of study;namely,the southern study area;the central study area;and the northern study area.As a first step,the 3-to -5-mile-width corridor previously selected for each of the three study areas was narrowed to a halfmile-width corridor based on the previous criteria.The preliminary center- line of the right-of-way is shown in the figures.This centerline represents a right-of-way width of 400 feet.This width is ade- quate for three,single-circuit,parallel lines with tower struc- tures having horizontal phase spacing of 33 feet.However, between the Devi 1 Canyon damsite and the intertie,the width of the right-of-way is 700 feet which is needed to accommodate five single-circuit lines.Environmental constraint analysis informa- tion was placed on base maps and overlays (6). 14.4 - Towers,Foundations and Conductors A transmission line intertie between Anchorage and Fairbanks is planned by the Power Authority.The intertie will consist of existing lines and a new section between Willow and Healy.The new section will be built to 345 kV standards and will be fully compatible with Susitna requirements. (a)Transmission Line Towers (i)Selection of Tower Type Because of unique soil conditions in Alaska, with extensive regions of muskeg and permafrost,conventional self-sup- porting or rigid towers will not provide a satisfactory solution for the proposed transmission line. Permafrost and seasonal changes in the soi 1 are known to cause large earth movements at some locations,requiring towers with a high degree of flexibility and capability for handling relatively large foundation movements without appreciable loss of structural integrity. The guyed tower is well suited to these conditions.The recommended type of structure for this study is therefore the hinged-guyed steel x-tower (Figure 14.6). The design features include hinged connections between the leg members and the foundations which,together with the longitudinal guy system,provide for large flexibility combined with excellent stability in the direction of the 14-21 line.Transverse stability is provided by the wide leg base which also accounts for relatively sm-Tl and manageable footing reactions. The selected tower is rated very favorably concerning reli- ability,maintenance,construction,economy,and aesthe- tics. (ii)Climatic Studies and Loadings Climatic studies for transmission lines were performed to determine likely wind and ice loads based on historical data.A more detailed study incorporating additional climatic data was performed to confirm or modify the obtai ned data. Details of the climatic studies for transmission lines may be found in Appendix A. The design loads acting on wires and structures ar~mainly based upon weather conditions.Four cases of loadings were established for the tower design. (b)Tower Foundations (i)Geological Conditions The generalized terrain analysis (7)was conducted to col- lect geologic and geotechnical data for the transmission line corridors,a relatively large area.The engineering characteristics of the terrain units have been generalized and described qualitatively.When evaluating the suitabil- ityof a terrain unit for a specific use,the actual prop- erties of that unit must be verified by onsite subsurface investigation,sampling,and laboratory testing. The three main types of foundation materials along the transmission line are: -Good material,which is defined as overburden which permits augered excavation and allows installation of concrete without special form work; Wetland and permafrost materi al which requires speci al design details;and Rock material defined as material in which drilled-in anchors and concrete footings can be used. Based on aeri a1,topographi c,and terrai n unit maps,the following was noted: 14-22 l I ] I J l ;J 1 1 1 I J 1 1 .I J 1 ! [1 r~ () f\I i \J I II1 I \ -For the southern study area:Wet 1and and permafrost materials constitute the major part of this area.Some rock and good foundation materials are present in this area in a very small proportion. -For the central study area:Rock foundation and good materials were observed in most of this study area. -For the northern study area:The major part of this area is wetland and permafrost materials.Some parts have rock materials. (ii)Types of Foundations The recommended two-legged x-frame tower is hinged at the foundation attachment connection for longitudinal freedom and restrained by fore and aft guying to an equalizing yoke. This arrangement will result in relatively smaller loads on the foundations.The recommended types of founda- tions are shown in Figure 14.7.These are the rock anchor and the pile foundation. (iii)Design Criteria The greater part of the combined maximum reactions on a transmission tower footing is usually from temporary loads such as broken wire,wind,and ice.With the exception of heavy-angle,dead-end,or terminal structures,only a part of the total reaction is of a permanent nature.As a consequence,the permissible soil pressure,as used in the design of building foundations,may be considerably exceeded for footing for transmission structures. The permissible values of soil pressure used in the footing des i gn wi 11 depend on the structure and the support i ng soil.The basic criterion is that displacement of the footing is not restricted because of the flexibility of the selected x-frame tower and its hinged connection to the footing.The shape and configuration of the selected tower are important factors in foundation considerations. Loads on the tower consist of vertical and horizontal loads and are transmitted down to the foundation and then distri- buted to the soil.In a tower placed at an angle or used as a dead-end in the line,the horizontal loads are respon- sible for a large portion of the loads on the foundation. In addition to the horizontal shear,a moment is also present at the top of the foundation,creating vertical download and uplift force~on the footing. To select and design the most economical type of foundation for a specific tower location,soil conditions at the site 14-23 must be known.Soil investigation will furnish this needed information. (c) Conductor Requirements Based on the transmission and power transfer requirements at the various stages of the Susitna development,economic conductor sizes were determined. The methodology used to obtain the economic conductor size and the results obtained are described elsewhere (8). When determining appropriate conductor size,the economic conduc- tor is checked for radio interfere~ce (RI)and corona performance. If RI and corona performance are within acceptable limits,then the economic conductor size is used.However,where the RI and corona performance are found to be limiting,the conductor selec- tion is based on these requirements. 14.5 -Substations (a)Recommended System Configurations In order to ensure the design of a reliable and economic electri- cal power system for the Railbelt,the electric system studies resulted in a system configuration which is shown in Figure 14.1. The recommended configuration has stations at several locations. The main function of each station is listed below. -Wi 11 ow Intermedi ate swi tch i ng of 345 kV transmi ssi on to nn m mi ze the impact of line outages and facilitate operation;local load can be provided by transformation to 138 kV. -Knik Arm Switching of 345 kV transmission from 3 circuits to 2 circuits into-An-chorage;locallo ad-can be-provided by-transformat i onto 115 kV;terminal for submarine cable. -University Terminal station for Anchorage,transformation from 345 kV to 230/115 kV. -Ester Terminal station for Fairbanks,transformation from 345 kV to 138 kV. 14-24 1 J 1 ] 1 1 :1 1J (b)Single Line Diagrams The electric system studies recommended a IIbreaker-and-a-half ll singl eli ne arrangement.Th is arrangement was recommended for re 1iabi1i ty and secur i ty of the system.Fi gure 14.1 shows the single line diagram of the 345 kV transmission system with station configurations at each location. For further information on single line diagram details see Plates 32, 33, 70,and 71. /1, I II (1 lJ IJ u ( i ) (i i ) Control and Metering It is proposed to remotely operate all the stations listed above.The control functions,such as closing and opening of circuit breakers,will be initiated from the system con- trol center at Willow.The metering functions will be telemetered to the control center.The system center will monitor equipment status for each station. The communication medium between the master station and the remote stations will be a microwave system.Enough redun- dancy will be included in the system to provide highly re- liable service.The microwave system will also be used for relay protection. 345 kV Relay Protection The re 1ayi ng protect ive schemes proposed for the 345 kV power system are generally in accordance with conventional practices.It is not anticipated,presently,that this project will require any special relaying equipment. Future protective schemes could make use of digital compu- ters.These schemes would be part of an overall computer- ized system which would involve control,monitoring and protection of the power system.If an integrated system is commercially available at the time of detailed design,it is recommended that such a system should be evaluated for the Susitna project. The protection philosophy is generally based on dual relay- ing and the local backup principle.To ensure sound relay- i ng protect ion,the proposed schemes wi 11 provi de fault clearance for either of the following contingencies: -Failure of either the primary or backup relays to oper- ate,or a failure in their secondary and control cir- cuits;or -Failure of a circuit breaker to interrupt,including a faulted circuit breaker. 14-25 For two winding transformers and autotransformers without a delta tertiary winding,it is proposed to provide a two-winding biased differential relay having a second harmonic restraint. As backup,an overall differential relay is provided.Gas pres- sure,oil level,winding temperature,and overvoltage protec- ~---_.----------t-ions are -al so--proposed-.---~---- (c) A brief description of the proposed protection schemes for various equipment is outlined below. - Line Protection For the 345 kV overhead transmission lines,dual primary multi- zone high speed distance protection relays for phase and ground faults are proposed.Microwave wi 11 be used for protection signalling between the two ends of a line.It is not proposed to provide high speed single pole automatic reclosing,but delayed three pole auto-reclosing should be considered as an operator's aid to restore a faulted line quickly. Each section of line from Willow to Knik Arm consists of 36 miles of overhead conductor and 4 miles of submarine cable.It is proposed to protect the cable as part of the overall line distance protection scheme without any provisions for special relays for cable protection. - Shunt Reactor Protection Where 1ines are equipped with shunt reactors,separate protec- t i on is provided for the reactors.The protect ive schemes consist of primary differential relays,backu~overcurrent phase fault and neutral ground fault protection,gas pressure,oil level,winding temperature,and overvoltage protection .• -Bus Protection Differential protection will be provided for each 345 kV bus. - Transformer Protection For the autotransformer equipped with a loaded tertiary winding, a three-winding biased differential relay is proposed. Additional backup overcurrent relays will also be provided for the tertiary winding. Station Equipment The station equipment requirements were determined by the load flow studies and reliability requirements.The breaker-and-a-half arrangement will require 1-1/2 breakers for every element (line or transformer circuit).Thi s wi 11 determine the number of breakers required for each station. (1II [] fl I.J I I \' I \LI 1] I \j (1 I I lJ \1 l1 (d) (e) The transformer capacities are also determined by the load requirements at each substation shown in Figure 14.1. Station Layouts The switchyard layouts are based on a conventional outdoor type design.Figures 14.8,14.9 and 14.10 indicate the physical layout of the stations.These layouts show the extent of land area re- quired for each station.They also indicate the area required by each voltage level and their location relative to each other.The station geographical orientation was determined by the line entry requirements. In an area where visual considerations are important,it is essen- tial to maintain a low station profile.The layout adopted for this project will provide a two level bus arrangement.The maxi- mum structure height for 345 kV which only occurs at the line entries will be 75 feet.The bus levels will be at 20 and 35 feet respectively from grade.Figure 14.11 shows a typical elevation of one diameter consisting of three breakers and associated dis- connect switches.The tower and bus heights for 230, 138 and 115 kV will be lower; hence,their profile will not be the major fac- tor at any of the stations. The low profile station is easier to maintain,because crews do not need 1arge cranes or other equi pment to deal wi th extreme heights. A two level bus arrangement has an added feature which is advanta- geous in an area prone to earthquakes.The bus structures are lower in height and, hence,less susceptible to damage during an earthquake.A larger station area also permits more space between the major equipment components,thus minimizing the possibility of damage affecting adjacent equipment. Station Facilities Although the stations are remotely controlled,each one will be provided with a control building.In some cases,where the land area is large,an additional relay building will be provided.The control bui lding wi 11 normally contain all the local control, communication and relaying equipment.Each station will be provided with auxiliary power at 480 V and proper distribution boards.The 480 V ac power will be supplied from the tertiaries on the autotransformers or the local utility. It should be noted that storage or service bui ldings wi 11 be provided for maintenance purposes. In the case of Willow,it is recommended that the Energy Manage- ment Center be located within the station compound.The service building shown on the same grounds could also be the headquarters 14-27 for the maintenance group.This location is close to the major 1and center at Anchorage and centrally located for the southern area transmission system. (f)Alternate Station Layout Although all the studies have been carried out on conventional outdoor stations,there has been considerable development in the last few years in SF6 gas-insulated equipment.This equipment has been used extensively in substations in urban areas.A gas- insul ated substat ion requi res 10 to 15 percent of the area of a conventional substation.The development in this field has been carried up to 800 kV,and hence the Susitna 345 kV is well within the range of experience. Because of the limited land area required,a gas-insulated station can be conveniently housed in a building.This is an advantage in Al aska where the weather can be severe.Furthermore,enclosing the station will probably create less impact on the environment and visual considerations.Maintenance and equipment repairs will be simpler and faster indoors where the staff wi 11 be protected against the weather. A recent comparison of cost estimates indicated that the capital expenditure for either a conventional or a gas-insulated substa- tion is comparable.It is recommended that SF6 station equip- ment should be considered in the detail design phase for Susitna. 14.6 -Dispatch Center and Communications (a) 1993 Rai lbelt Power System The introduction of Susitna hydroelectric power in the Railbelt area will require several hundred miles of transmission lines from the Susitna River basin to Anchorage and Fairbanks.In fact,the ultimate development will require approximately 850 miles of transmission,5 switchyards and 2 hydro generating stations,one at Watana and one at Devi 1 Canyon. Thermal generation at Fair- banks and~~Anch'dr'a'gewillrelfl aiff ilioper-arron:-~-T~t0 ta:rilfSt a:nea'~. generation capacity will be over 2,000 MW. To operate such an enlarged Ra i 1be It system,a control system or energy management system (EMS)will be required.This system will insure security of the 345 kV transmission lines and switchyards/ substations operations.The system will also exercise remote con- trol and efficient dispatching of the generating units in the Rai lbelt. (b) Energy Management System Requirements To provide an efficient and secure dispatching system for the Railbelt,the following subsystems are proposed: 14-28 l I l c ! I l l 1 1 I .1 1 j 1 I J f, ( IlI '.j fj [] II'.",..J IIL,"_J -Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA)Subsystem; -Generation Control Subsystem; -Power Scheduling and Load Forecasting Subsystem; -Energy Accounting Subsystem; -System Security Subsystem;and -System Support Subsystem. A detailed description of the functional requirements for each of the above is given in a separate report (8). (c) Energy Management System Alternatives An evaluation of alternative system configurations showed that two different approaches to generation control are possible: -Alternative I provides indirect control of generating units; and -Alternative II provides direct control of generating units. To formulate and evaluate these two alternatives,the following criteria were used: -Configurations must fulfill functional requirements discussed above in paragraph (c); -Configurations must be technically,economically,and operation- ally maintainable through the life of the systems (10 to 15 years);and -Configuration must be technically feasible,as well as proven. I 1lJ tJ [J U IJ ( i )Alternative I System Configuration The Alternative I system configuration is typical of the present offeri ngs of several EMS equipment manufacturers (see Figure 14.12,EMS Alternative I System Configuration). The configuration is based on the assumptions that: -An in-plant,computer-based control system,located at Susitna Hydroelectric Control Center,will be provided; -The Susitna in-plant control system will directly control all hydro generating units and the switching stations at Watana and Devil Canyon.EMS will determine generation participation requirements on the unit level,but the units wi 11 be pulsed by the in-plant system.The super- vi sory contro 1 act ions for Watana and Devi 1 Canyon generating stations will be initiated at EMS level,but the control functions will be implemented by the in-plant contro 1 system; 14-29 -The northern and southern computer-based systems will receive generation participation requirements from the EMS,but participation allocation and direct unit pulsing will be accomplished by these systems;and -EMS will directly monitor and control the following 345 kV substat ions: Ester; Wi 11 ow; Kn i k Arm; Un i vers ity;and Others,as required. (ii)Alternative II System Configuration The Alternative II system configuration is also typical of present offeri ngs of several EMS equi pment manufacturers (see Figure 14.13,EMS Alternative II System Configuration). The configuration is based on the assumptions that: -An in-plant,computer-based control system,located at Watana,will be provided to monitor generating units performance and control the units; - All Watana and Devil Canyon generating units will be con- trolled (raise and lower)directly by EMS from'system control center at Willow; - All northern and southern area generating units will be directly controlled (raise and lower) by EMS,Willow Control Center;and -The switching stations at Watana and Devil Canyon and the other four 345 kV substations will be directly monitored and controlled by the EMS Control Center. (d)irements Effective operation of EMS is very dependent on transfer of data and immediate response of supervisory functions such as control and telemeterihg.Various communication systems to determine the most reliable and cost-effective communication media were eva1uated. Microwave systems are line-of-sight propagation and have an aver- age standard transmission path of approximately 35 to 40 miles in an area of flat terrain.The cost was estimated for approximately 17 towers and repeater stat ions.A mi crowave system is recom- mended for this application. 14-30 J I l .0[ l I I I 1 I ! 1 l J I l.I f] I),I (j fl I i [J u LJ I j II '.-----' (e) Control Center Facility The faci1i ty wi 11 be the nerve center of the APA power system operations of 345 kV transmission network and the electric power generation.All decisions concerning the operation and mainte- nance of the power system wi 11 be imp 1emented through th is com- plex.The importance of this facility dictates that its location be selected with a great deal of care. (i)Location of Site The control center must be located on a site that provides high security against disruption of power system operations by human intervention or by acts of God. Other factors that have a bearing on the suitability of a site are the availabi lity of land,housing,power and educa- tional facilities.These factors together with transporta- tion accessibility,climatic conditions,centralized location in the power system,and the fact that a major switchyard is already located in the area make it appropri- ate to recommend Willow as the location for the EMS center. Willow has additional qualifications as a possible capital site.The Willow center could also be the headquarters for the maintenance staff for the transmission network between Susitna and Anchorage.The Willow site also has flat lands between it and Anchorage which also reinforces the recommen- dation to use microwave as the communication media. (ii)Control Center Building The EMS control center buildin9 can be located on the same site as the Wi 11 ow switchyard.The construction of this building will require special facilities.This is all described in the "Energy Management System (EMS)- System Requirements"report. Figure 14.14 provides a conceptual layout of the Wi 11 ow Control Center.This layout is based on a single story building having a total space of 14,500 ft 2. (f)Budgetary Cost Estimates Overall budgetary cost estimates for the development,procurement, system testing,and installation of EMS Alternatives I and II are compared in Table 14.7.Costs for the EMS Control Center and Microwave System are also provided.These costs are representa- tive of what Energy and Control Consultants estimate as the middle price bids for such a project and are given in January,1982 doll ars. 14-31 (g)Recommendations Alternative I,shown in Figure 14.15,is recommended for the Rail- belt Energy Management System as the most cost-effective and desirable system approach. Unlike Alternative II,Alternative I system approach allows generation control of the southern (Anchor- age)and northern (Fairbanks)areas to remain under their respec- tive utilities.Alternative I also encourages the formation of regional control centers for each area.This is in accordance with the present trend in power system control to decentralize in large geographical areas. Alternative I is also marginally less costly than Alternative II. Microwave is recommended as a communicating medium.Once pro- vided,this system will perform the following additional func- tions: -Provide a transmission media for protective line relaying;and -Provide reliable voice communications between the various sta- tions.This is very important in power system operations. It is recommended that the EMS Control Center be located at Willow within the Willow Switching Station compound.This location has many advantages and is centrally located in the southern Railbelt power system.It would also be reasonable to designate this loca- tion as a maintenance center for the transmission system.This area also has room for future expansion.There also appear to be some plans to provide a highway crossing at Kn i k Arm.If these plans materialize,Willow would only be one hour away by highway from Anchorage. I l l .\ I .-;..) " 1 J I I I I I I LIST OF REFERENCES (1)Commonwealth Associates Inc.,Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie -Transmission System Data (Draft). the Alaska Power Authority.November 1980. Transmi ssion Prepared for (2)Acres Ameri can Incorporated, Planning Memorandum Subtask Sus itna Hydroe1ectr ic Project 8.02 -Preliminary Transmission Prepared for the Alaska Power I 1LJ I)lJ System Analysis (Draft). Authority.November 1981. (3) U.S. Corps of Engineers,Alaska District.Southcentral Railbelt Area,Alaska - Upper Susitna River Basin -Interim Feasibil- ity Report - Appendix 1,Part 2.December 1975. (4)International Engineering Company,Inc.,Robert Retherford Associ- ates,Economic Feasibility Study.Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority.December 1979. (5) Acres American Incorporated,Susitna Hydroelectric Report -Trans- mission Line Corridor Screening Closeout Report.Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority.September 1981. (6) Acres American Incorporated/Terrestrial Environmental Specialists Inc.Transmission Line Selected Route.Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority.March 1982. (7)R&M Consultants Inc.,Terrain Analysis of the North and South Intertie Power Transmi ssion Corridors.Prepared for Acres American Incorporated.November 1981. (8) Acres American Incorporated,Susitna Hydroelectric Project Elec- tric System Studies.Prepared for the Alaska Power Author- ity.February 1982. TABLE 14.1:POWER TRANSFER REQUIREMENTS (MW) INSTALLED CAPACITY TRANSFER REQUIREMENT ! ]I J I] \- [1 I!' II lJ [J u I tJ Susitna to Susitna to Year Watana Devil Canyon Total Susitna Anchoraae Fairbanks 1993 680 --680 578 170 1997 1020 --1020 867 255 2002 1020 600 1620 1377 405 TABLE 14.2:SUMMARY OF LIFE CYCLE COSTS TRANSMISSION ALTERNATIVE 2 3 4 5 Transmission Lines 1981 $ x 10 6 Capital $156.70 $159.51 $133.96 $140.94 $159.27 Land Acquisition 18.73 20. 79 18.07 20.13 18.65 Capitalized Annual Charges 127.34 130.14 107.43 112.83 126.91 Capitalized Line Losses 53.07 54.50 64.51 65.82 42.82------ Total Transmission Line Cost $355.84 $364.94 $323.97 $339.72 $347.65 Switchina Stations Capital $114.09 $106.40 $128.32 $120.64 $154.75 Capitalized Annual Charges 121.02 113.30 135.94 128.22 165.02------ Total Switching Station Cost 235.11 219.70 264.26 248.86 319.77------ TOTAL $590.95 $584.64 $588.23 $588.58 $667.42 I --------- TABLE 14.3:TRANSMISSION SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS Number of Number &Slze Line Section Len~th Circuits Voltage of Conductors (ml)(kv)(kcmll) Watana to Devil Canyon 27 2 345 2 by 954 Devil Canyon to Fairbanks 189 2 345 2 by 795 Devil Canyon to Willow 90 3 345 2 by 954 Willow to Knik Arm 38 3 345 2 by 954 Knik Arm Crossing*4 3 345 Knik Arm to University Substation 18 2 345 2 by 1351 *Submarine Cable ,.1 .1 1 I TABLE 14.4:TECHNICAL,ECONOMIC,AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERIA USED IN CORRIDOR SELECTION rl j) ( J u IJ LJ Type 1.Technical - Primary - Secondary 2.Economical - Primary - Secondary 3.Environmental -Primary -Secondary Criteria General Location Elevation Relief Access River Crossings Elevation Access River Crossings Timbered Areas Wetlands Development Existing Transmission Right-of-Way Land Status Topography Vegetation Selection Connect with Intertie near Gold Creek,Willow, and Healy. Connect Healy to Fairbanks.Con- nect Willow to Anchorage. Avoid mountainous areas. Select gentle relief. Locate in proximity to existing transportation corridors to facilitate maintenance and repairs. Minimize wide crossings. Avoid mountainous areas. Locate in proximity to existing transportation corridors to reduce construction costs. Minimize wide crossings. Minimize such areas to reduce clearing costs. Minimize crossings which require special designs. Avoid existing or proposed developed areas. Parallel. Avoid private lands,wildlife refuges,parks. Select gentle relief. Avoid heavily timbered areas. Technical TABLE 14.5:TECHNICAL,ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERIA USED IN CORRIDOR SCREENING Primary Secondary Economic Primary Secondary Topography Climate and Elevation Soils Length Vegetation and Clearing Highway and River Crossings Length Presence of Right-of-Way Presence of Access Roads Topography Stream Crossings Highway and Railroad Crossings ;,;.:)-- Environmental Primary Aesthetic and Visual Land Use Presence of Existing Right-oF-Way Existing and Proposed Development Secondary Length Topography Soils Cultural Reservoir Vegetation Fishery Resources Wildlife Resources J -! I) Il !I f] [J u [J u TABLE 14.6:SUMMARY OF SCREENING RESULTS RAT I N GS Corridor Env.Econ. fech.Summary - Southern Study Area (1)ABC'C C C C *(2)ADfC A A A A (3)AEFC F C A F - Cental Study Area *(1)ABCD A A A A (2)ABECD F C C F (3)AJCF C C C C (4)ABCJHI F F F F (5)ABECJHI F F F F (6)CBAHI F C F F (7)CEBAHI F F C F (8)CBAG F F C F (9)CEBAG F F C F (10)CJAG F F C F (11)CJAHI F C C F (12)JACJHI F F C F (13)ABCF A C A C (14)AJCD C A A C (15)ABECF F C C F - Northern Study Area *(1)ABC A A A A (2)ABDC C A C C (3)AEDC F C F F (4)AEF F C F F A =recommended C =acceptable but not preferred F =unacceptable *Indicates selected corridor. TABLE 14.7:EMS ALTERNATIVES 1 AND 11 COMPARATIVE COST ESTIMATES AIternabve I AIternabve II ,I EMS Project 1Hardware$2,942,000 $3,072,000 Software 3,956,000 4,200,000 Auxiliary 1,210,000 1,350,000 I 1 Internal (APA costs)3,416,000 3,606,000 $11,524,000 $12,228,000 Susitna In-Plant Control System 1Hardware$1,131,000 $1,094,000 , Software 1,200,000 1,200,000 Auxiliary 750,000 700,000 '1Internal(APA costs)1,770,000 1,875,000 $4,851,000 $4,869,000 Microwave System $4,920,000 $5,100,000 _1EMSControlCenterBuilding$3,853,140 $3,853,140 TOTAL $25,148,140 $26,050,140 'J .1 :] I f--- L--L.-...J I L __1---L,__J !j ~-~'I .J WILLOW GOLDEN VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOC. ~~ L-'---lIH~/ 150 MVA STATIC VAR 345 -COMPENSATOR 138113.8 KV 1lf--::--- ,111~ ESTER ( FAIRBANKS) SHUNT REACTOR 195 MI. 84 MI. -----------.., I I If--o- I I ~f--o- 75MVA 345-138 KV --if--D-- ",..,.,- ....rT"f ~'j ...to-• I ..I " _..J L __ KNIK ARM 40MI. 75 MVAr345-115KV ,---------.., "1-':(.I,7 I 'f--SUBMARINECABLE I :UNOERKNIK ARM'I A IIII-'~L _ II......? I I I III-'~ +-"v, I I III-~ RAILBELT 345 KV TRANSMISSION SYSTEM SINGLE LINE DIAGRAM [Ii]FIGURE 14.1 STAGING LEGEND ---1993 ----2002 DEVIL CANYON WATANA 26 MI. \I I I 6 x 170 MW UNITS UNIVERSITY (ANCHORAGE)--, I I I I I TXi -$~~~~V:KV .1..1. 'T''T- I I \l'I I ANCHORAGE MUNICIPAL LIGHT a POWER 18MI. I I 250 MVA .....t..., ~~~;'3.8KV Tl ~001[1"'(r' II STATICVARICOMPENSATOR \ I l'I CHUGACH ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION FAIRBANKS LOCATION MAP lEGEND ---STUDY CORRIDOR ..............INTERTIE (APPROXIMATE) o 5 10I! SCALE IN MilES ALTERNATIVE TRANSMISSION LINE CORRIDORS SOUTH ERN STUDY AREA FIGURE 14.2 LOCATION MAP FAIRBANKS 10 ! FIGURE 14.3 5 SCALE IN MILES o i LEGEND ------STUDY CORRIDOR ..............INTERTIE (APPROXIMATE) ALTERNATIVE TRANSMISSION LINE CORRIDORS CENTRAL STUDY AREA .X.i'+ LOCATION MAP LEGEND ----STUDY CORRIDOR ••••••••••••••I NTERTIE (APPROXIMATE) ALTERNATIVE TRANSMISSION LINE CORRIDORS NORTHERN STUDY AREA o 5 i SCALE IN MILES 10 ! FIGURE 14.4 [.r=J L-...-~'--''--------' , '-------i ----J ~~--.J ---1 TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS DEVIL CANYON WATANA "j t)'tt ANCHORAGE (\~\~~'-.1-'..[] T:ELA 41'01(G \......::::!, 3 "'-=t -».D. GOLD CREEK WILLOW .-'1~~./'~.._.-._.,// ..~~./TAt::KEETNA,~...~_., DENALI ~._.-~~C<S'/rj,iA~"'\I STATE ~~R/VcRL1PARKI'" I 3 L----1 i "'"l __J\ MEWS ALASKA RANGE rt/! HIGHWAY RAILROAO TRANSMISSION LINE ROUTE PROPOSED SWITCHING STATioNo ® -0- LEGEND T( ER..~v ~\ •FIGURE 14.5 12SCALEO~==5;;==iil ANCHORAGE TO FAIRBANKS PROPOSED TRANSMISSION LINE ROUTE THE PROPOSED INTERTIE FROM WILLOW TO HEALY WILL BE CONSTRUCTED FOR 345 KV CAPABILITY AND INITIALLY OPERATED AT 13B KV. IF SUSITNA IS PROVED FEASIBLE,THE FULL 345 KV CAPACITY WILL BE UTILIZED. ---I l-.J 1--,--- ~.-........-.---'l ~'--'l~ , '-----'=:==J L _1 !- J: <!l iii °1:-'<!l.,ct Q)a: lU ~ DETAIL B RECOMMENDED 345 KV TANGENT TOWER I 1 1 J 1 @ __em =~ l¥J VCHAMBER HOLE TO :ACCEPT HEAVY DUTY GUY-THIMBLE WITH 'I GUY- WIRE,a PREFORMED GUY ATTACHMENT I DETAIL A TOWER LEG CLEARANCE TO PILE II \I II II PILE DETAIL B x-FRAME GUYED STEEL TOWER 9 SECTION A-A CHAMBER HOLE TO ACCEPT HEAVY DUTY GUY THIMBLE WITH GUY WIRE a PRE- FORMED 'GUY ATTACH- MENT FIGURE 14.6 11~~m I 2 EACH, I ANCHOR,II REBAR IN 4"12l X a-o"HOLES 2 EACH, MULTI-HELIX ANCHORS 15~0"LONG ROCK FOUNDATION 5'-0" STANDARD FOUNDATION 2 EACH, 12"STEEL H-PILES,25'-0"LONG 2 EACH,3 CU.YD.CONCRETE 2 ANCHORS, II REBAR IN 4"12l X s-o"HOLES (J (J [J u (J u 2 EACH, MULTI-HELIX ANCHORS 301-0"LONG 2 EACH,12"STEEL H-PILES,50'LONG WET LAND FOUNDATION TRANSMISSION TOWER FOUNDATION CONCEPTS FIGURE 14.7 1_-1 _I 1 __-.J __---I ~,~__.-1 II II -.ft,II _ LW I 1050'-0"~--~I ~SERVICE ROAD -I r-F .1[ 1[ 1r,11 I A If R LK I 1:[tJ LW 2 f-TO DEVIL CANYON I I _ "0, "0 0 I = I II I 0 345 KV I II II I I L-l r-LL.':l-I-'- n I l:f I II II II ~_~-ft::_=t-=--=LW I II II II I --1}--.::I.-- - RELAY BUILDING 175 MVA ---if-+--<l "-------J I I I I I I I / 3 PHASE I I I I I I ,r I I rflt-r--------- LK 2TO KNIK ARM JL 138 KV rtfr- II I 0 I II II I I l-d L....l..J..jp- LK 3 I I '--4-...r---9 p..---; --V---L ---------~~~t~Ir--{lp---i=I I I---<ll>--;:j '~.=-..:I I----l+--__+I_.J---<Lb--*-i...J ) SERVICE ROAD N MICROWAVE TOWER ~ENERGY MANAGEMENT CENTER CONTR SLOG. o 100 FEET 200 II WILLOW SWITCHING STATION - GENERAL LAYOUT FIGURE 14.8 m L-,_:_-'----~-' •FIGURE 14.9 TO KNIK ARM LU2 LUI -0 oo :! .__J UNIVERSITY SUBSTATION-GENERAL LAYOUT 200100 FEET -----lSERVICE ROAD ~;"ci~ I , '"i..~--_ I ~==-- r-=t..----...I r-i.-'--_----------r----------......J I ~=--_----..,f}---r-f------, I f--'..............::;..__---dl>---l I II-------------r-....I ,.;~-15KV----y- I I ~:LI==__.r,0 l =Fo jE 0 I.,;;E;" I 230KV ~M 0 D .",;;=:Jt=345 KV~!~tl 3--, ~=15KV .n,.n, I 1:~f-e::::---------=---tE n 250MVA ~~I I I ill I , 3-SINGLE PHASE 4#ITRANSFORMERS - SERVICE ROAD :Je-t I I -,_I , -~'"',." I I \ I.500'-0" I I I 15KV STATIC VAR COMPENSATOR I I IROOM I I I I ~MICROWAVE I I I ITOWERIIII----"WULtlJlI.Ll r-n n h n SERVICE 'TT1rL[-'T'rT ~~r'~ ANO I L I 250 MVA I STORAGE L - ,r J 1n 3 -SINGLE PHASE BUILDING ~II TRANSFORMERS r''r I I N ~ I I I I ~1=--I I 1115KV l r I I I :L_.L o '-"--L- ESTER SUBSTATION ----- --+,r Z I --...,I 138 KV =0, -0 "'.... STATIC VAR COMPENSATOR - SERVICE ROAD J -- TOWER ---- I I'~J ILREACTORc::: ,..I "00"0'"I I { F 2 TO DEVIL CANYON LFI FIGURE 14.10 181m I =0 I ~I KNIK ARM SWITCHING STATION "' ESTER AND KNIK ARM STATIONS - GENERAL LAYOUT 1':1 MVA 3 PHASE TRANSFORMER'=*-n n---E:j rl I--'-I 115KV-----I:i-0 0 l345KV 0 Ei=H], If o TO UNIVERSITY IE :::JOE Fe",P JF1tlUSTOR BLDG.'-------'r )2t-MICROWAVE TOWER-- LKI LK3 1050'-0"I~-I ,-SERVICE ROAD -~tNI~1r 1r 1r 11 lr I TO WILLOW -1 LK 2 100 !!!!!!!!!!!!!SO FEET o [I I 1 ~I j UJ 0::::> (!) i:i: I- Z LLl :E LLl (!) Z« 0:: 0::« (J) ::> ID -J LLl>LLl -J ~ -J I Zo ~>LLl -J LLl -J« Ua::>-I- (J) Zo i=« I- (J) ~o w It)W lL oo u ~ :!: l1J :I: Uen 1Il I 1Il Zo i=u l1Jen <:: -----t <: S08 NIV ~--If.-4---I <{ I <{ Zo i= ~ l1J ..J l1J ll3>tV3ll8 .lIOOllIO S08 NIV~ HO.lIMS .103NNOOSIC 1Il .. .. .. .. .. ..1 .......---HO.lIMS .103NNOOSIC .......---ll3>tV3ll8 .lIOOllIO ......----HO.lIMS .103NNOOSIC .......---!l11l---SO8 NI V ~ "O-,OZ ..I 1Il L () () r 1 i I 1 1II o L---'--'~-- I ICOMPUTERI1 COMPUTER PERIPHERALS MAN/MACHINE INTERFACE COMMUNICATION SUBSYSTEM NORTHERN AREA SOUTHERN AREA SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC CONTROL SYSTEM CONTROL SYSTEM CONTROL CENTER _L..-------FT~l-,...-L..- G ------RTU G G ------RTU RTU -------RTU -'--- SUBSTATION RTU s ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM,ALTERNATIVE I,SYSTEM CONFIGURATION FIGURE 14.121 ~~~I~I "--~L..-_.... COMPUTER 1 I PERIPHERALS MAN/MACHINE INTERFACE COMMUNICATION SUBSYSTEM ~ COMPUTER -----' G NORTHERN AREA CONTROL SYSTEM -----fb G SOUTHERN AREA CONTROL SYSTEM ------RTU SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC CONTROL CENTER G RTU L........IRTU ....--1-- ~------lRTUsl-8------IR~Ul WATANA/DEVIL CANYON SUBSTATION RTU SUBSTATIONS ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM,ALTERNATIVE IT,SYSTEM CONFIGURATION FIGURE 14.131 ~~I!~I ~L-._l--__~...--J ,..170'--I Iii Iii i- MECHANICAL AND FACILITY SUPPORT COMMUNICATION I STORAGE ROOM I 300 600 SQ. FT.I SQ. FT. BATTERY ROOM 350 SQ. FT. UPS ROOM 350 SQ. FT. LAV.8 KITCHEN 350 SQ.FT.DISPATCHING 1200 SQ. FT. CONFER.I TRAIN /PROG. EMS EQUIR MAINT.ROOM EMS EQUIPMENT ROOM DISPATCH AREA ARENA 1500 SQ. FT. 400 SQ. FT.1400 SQ. FT. ROOM ROOM 900 SQ. FT. HALL 7.5 FT. WIDE 1500 SQ.FT.650 SQ.FT. LOBBY 00 ~ 00 MANAGEMENTOFFICE AREA 1500 SQ. FT. ENG. SUPPORT KITCHEN 8 LOUNGE MEN LAV. 450 WOMEN LAV. 450 450 SQ. FT. AREA 600 SQ. FT.900 SQ. FT. SQ. FT.I SQ. FT.637 SQ.FT. o 20 FEET 40 ..........'- ENTRANCE TOTAL:14,500 SQ. FT. WI LLOW SYSTEM CONTROL CENTER, FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT FIGURE 14.14 I ~~Il~,I r 1!j fJ I 1u ... TO GENERATORS NORTHERN AREA CONTROL SYSTEM-1----------. FAIRBANKS ESTER SUBSTATION WILLOW SUBSTATION ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM WILLOW CONTROL CENTER KNIK ARM SUBSTATION WATANA SWITCHING STATION TO GENERATORS j""j I'JI'jI'JI\ SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC CONTROL CENTER lit ,,,,It lit TO GENERATORS DEVIL CANYON SWITCHING STATION [J LJ !J j -TO GENERATORS UNIVERSITY SUBSTATION ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, ALTERNATIVE I,!IPO[P I CONFIGURATION BLOCK DIAGRAM FIGURE 14.15 "UOlO 15 -PROJECT OPERATION This section describes the operation of the Watana and Devil Canyon power plants in the Railbelt electrical system.Under current condi- tions in the Railbelt,a total of nine utilities share responsibility for generation and distribution of electric power,with limited inter- connections.The proposed arrangements for optimization and control of the dispatch of Susitna power to Railbelt load centers is based on the assumption that a single entity would eventually be set up for this purpose.In the year 2010 the projected Ra t lbe l t system,with Susitna on line,will comprise: Coal-fired Steam: Natural Gas GT: Diesel: Natural Gas CC: Hydropower: Total 13 IVJW 326 MW 6 MW 317 MW 1440 MW 2102 IVIW LJ (J U U It is important to note that the Susitna project will be the single most significant power source in the system.The dispatch and distri- bution of power from all sources by the most economical and reliable means is therefore essential.The general principles of reliability of plant and system operation,reservoir regulation,stationary and spin- ning reserve requirements,and maintenance programming are discussed in this section.Estimates of dependable capacity and annual energy production for both Watana and Devil Canyon are presented.Operating and maintenance procedures are described,and the proposed performance monitoring system for the two projects is also outlined. 15.1 -Plant and System Operation Requirements The main function of system planning and operation control is the allo- cation of generating plant on a short-term operational basis so that the total system demand is met by the available generation at minimum cost consistent with the security of supply.The objectives are gener- a lly the same for long-term pl anning or short-term operat ional load dispatching,but with important differences in the latter case.In the short-term case,the actual state of the system dictates system relia- bility requirements,overriding economic considerations in load dis- patching.An"important factor arising from economic and rel iabil ity considerations in system planning and operation is the provision of stationary reserve and spinning reserve capacity.Figure 15.1 shows the daily variation in demand for the Railbelt system during typical winter and summer weekdays and the seasonal variation in monthly peak demands for estimated loads in a typical year (the year 2000). 15.2 -General Power Plant and System Railbelt Criteria The following are basic rel iabil ity standards and criteria generally adopted in the industry for power systems. 15-1 (a)Installed Generating Capacity Sufficient generating capacity is installed in the system to in- sure that the probabil ity of occurrence of load exceedi ng the available generating capacity shall not be greater than one day in ten years (LOLP of 0.1). (b) Transmission System Capability The high-voltage transmission system should be operable at all load levels to meet the foll owtnq unscheduled single or double contingencies without instability,cascading or interruption of load: -The single contingency situation is the loss of any single gen- erating unit,transmission line,transformer,or bus (in addi- tion to normal scheduled or maintenance outages)without exceed- ing the applicable emergency rating of any facility. -The double contingency situation is the subsequent o~tage of any remaini ng equi pment,1 ine or subsystem without exceedi ng·the short time emergency rating of any facility. In the single contingency situation,the power system must be cap- able of readjustment so that all equipment will be loaded within normal ratings,and in the double contingency situa'tion,within emergency ratings for the probable duration of the outage. Our i ng any conti ngency : -Sufficient reactive power (MVAR)capacity with adequate controls are installed to maintain acceptable transmission voltage pro- fil es, -The stability of the power system is maintained without loss of load or generation during and after a three-phase fault,cleared in normal time,at the most critical locatio~. --(-c-)'SUllimary Operational reliability criteria thus fall into four main cate- gories: (i)Loss-of-load probability (LOLP)of 0.1,or one day in ten years,is maintained for the recommended plan of operation through the year 2010 (Section 6). (ii)The single and double contingency requirements are main- tained for any of the more probable outages in the plant or transmission system. (iii)System stability and voltage regulation are assured from the electrical system studies (Section 14).Detailed 15-2 1 ! I } J ) ) I I J I " J I J ( ! 1 'I' (j fl 11\1 I ) I 1u u U L! 11!~, studies for load frequency control have not been performed, but it is expected that the stipulated criteria will be met with the more than adequate spinning reserve capacity with six units at Watana and four units at Devil Canyon. (iv)The loss of'all Susitna transmission lines on a single right-of-way has a low level of probability as described in Section 18 under Risk Analysis.In the event of the loss of all 1i nes,the hydro pl ants at Watana and Devil Canyon are best suited to restore power supply quickly after the first line is restored since they are designed for "bl ack st ar t "operation.In this respect,hydro plants are super- ior to thermal plants because of their inherent black start capability for restoration of supply to a large system. 15.3 -Economic Operation of Units The Central Dispatch Control Engineer decides which generating units should be operated at any given time.Decisions are made on the basis of known information,including an "or dervof-mer t t "schedule,short- term demand forecasts,limits of operation of units,and unit mainten- ance schedules. (a)Merit-Order Schedule In order to decide which generating unit should run to meet the system demand in the most economic manner,the Control engineer is provided with information of the running cost of each unit in the form of an "crder vof-mer t t "schedule.The schedule gives the cap- acity and fuel costs for thermal units,and reservoir regulation limits for hydro plants. (b)Optimum Load Dispatching One of the most important functions of the Control Center is the accurate forecasting of the load demands in the various areas of the system. Based on the anticipated demand,basic power transfers between areas and an allowance for reserve,the planned generating capa- city to be used is determined,taking into consideration the reservoir regulation plans of the hydro plants.The type and size of the units should also be taken into consideration for effective load dispatching. In a hydro-domi nated power system, such as the Ra il belt system would be if Susitna is developed,the hydro unit will take up a much greater part of base load operation than in a thermal dom- inated power system.The planned hydro units at Watana typically are well suited to load following and frequency regulation of the system and providi ng spi nni ng reserve.Greater fl exi bil ity of operation was a significant factor in the selection of six units of 170 MW capacity at Watana,rather than fewer,larger size units. 15-3 (c)Operating Limits of Units There are strict constraints on the mlnlmum load and the loading rates of machines,and to dispatch load to these machines requires a system wide dispatch program taki~g these constraints into con- sideration.In general,hydro units have excellent startup and load following characteristics;thermal units have good part- loading characteristics. Typical plant loading limitations are given below: (i )Hydr0 Unit s Reservoir regul ati on constrai nts resulting in not-to- exceed maximum and minimum reservoir levels,daily or seasonally. -Part loading of units is impo~Jible in the zone of rough turbine operation (typically from above speed-no-load to 50 percent load)due to vibrat40ns arising from hydraulic surges. (ii)Steam Units -Loading rates are slow (10 percent per minute). -The units may not be able to meet a sudden steep rate of rise of load demand. Usually have a minimum economic shutdown period (about 3 hours) • The total cost of using conventional units include bank- ing,raising pressure and part-load operations prior to maximum economic operation. (iii)Gas Turbines ..Cannot be used as spinning.reser.ve.because·of-ver-y poor efficiency and reduced service life. - Require 8 to 10 minutes for normal start-up from cold. Emergency start up times are of the order of 5 to 7 mi nutes, (d)Optimum Maintenance Program An important part of operational planning which can have a signif- icant effect on operati ng costs is mai ntenance programmi ng.The program specifies the times in the year and the sequence in which plant is released for maintenance.Further details of Watana and Devil Canyon power plant maintenance programs are given in Sec- tion 15.8. l ! 1 ( l i I .j ~ I.r l I r J I..' 15.4 -Unit Operation Reliability Criteria During the operational load dispatching conditions of the power system, the reliability criteria often override economic considerations in scheduling of various units in the system.Also important in consider- ing operational reliability are system response,load-frequency con- trol,and spinning reserve capabilities. (a)Power System Analyses ••\I iJ fl \} (1 (b)l J iJ [] iJ Load-frequency response studies determine the dynamic stability of the system due to the sudden forced outage of the largest unit (or generat i on block) in the system.The generat i on and load are not balanced,and if the pick-up rate of new generation is not ade- quate,loss of load will eventually result from under-voltage and under-frequency relay operation,or load-shedding.The aim of a well-designed high security system is to avoid load-shedding by maintaining frequency and voltage within the specified statutory limits. System Response and Load-Frequency Control To meet the statutory frequency requirements,it is necessary that the effective capacity of generating plant supplying the system at any given instant should be in excess of the load demand.In the absence of detailed studies,an empirical factor of 5/3 times the capacity of the largest unit in the system is normally taken as a design criterion to maintain system frequency within acceptable limits in the event of the instantaneous loss of the largest unit. It is recommended that a factor of 1-1/2 times the largest unit size be considered as a minimum for the Alaska Railbelt system, with 2 times the largest unit size as a fairly conservative value (i .e.,300 to 340 MW). The qui ckest response in system generat i on wi 11 come from the hydro units.The large hydro units at Watana and Devil Canyon on spinning reserve can respond in the turbining mode within 30 sec- onds. This is one of the particularly important advantages of the Susitna hydro units.Gas turbines can only respond in a second stage operation within 5 to 10 minutes and would not strictly qualify as spinning reserve.If thermal units are run part-loaded (example,75 percent),th i s would be another source of spinning reserve.Ideally,it would be advantageous to provide spinning reserve in the thermal generation as well,in order to spread spinning reserves evenly in the system, with a compromise to eco- nomic loading resulting from such an_operation. (c)Protective Relaying System and Devices The primary protect i ve re1ayi ng systems provi ded for the gener- ators and transmission system of the Susitna project are designed 15-5 to disconnect the faulty equipment from the system in the fastest possible time. Independent protective systems are installed to the extent necessary to provide a fast-clearing backup for the primary protecti ve system so as to 1imit equi pment damage,to limit the shock to the system and to speed restoration of service. The relaying systems are designed so as not to restrict the normal or necessary network transfer capabilities of the power system. 15.5 -Dispatch Control Centers The operation of the Watana and Devil Canyon power plant in relation to the Central Dispatch Center can be considered to be the second tier of a three-tier control structure as follows: - Central Dispatch Control Center (345 kV network)at Willow:manages the main system energy transfers,advises system confi gurati on and checks overall security. -Area Control Center (Generation connected to 345 kV system, for ex- ample,Watana and Devil Canyon):deals with the loading of genera- tors connected directly to the 345 kV network, sWitching and safety precautions of local systems, checks security of interconnections to mai n system. -District or Load Centers (138 kV and lower voltage networks): gener- ation and distribution at lower voltage levels. For the Anchorage and Fairbanks areas,the district center functions are incorporated in the respective area control centers. The details of the Central Dispatch Control Center and of the Watana Area Control Center are given in Section 14.Each generating unit at Watana and Devil Canyon is started up, loaded and operated and shut down from the Area Control Center at Watana according to the loading demands from the Central Dispatch Control Center with due consideration to: -Watana reservoir regulation criteria; ---.--Bevil Canyon reservoir regulation cr-i-t-eria;.-...---- - Turbine loading and de-loading rates; -Part loading and maximum loading characteristics of turbines and gen- erators; - Hydraulic transient characteristics of waterways and turbines - Load-frequency control of demands of the system; and - Voltage regulation requirements of the system. The Watana Area Control Center is equipped with a computer-aided con- trol system to efficiently carry out these functions.The computer- aided control system allows a minimum of highly trained and skilled operators to perform the control and supervi sion of Watana and Devil Canyon plants from a single control room.The data information and retrieval system will enable the performance and alarm monitoring of 1 1 1 J '\ 1 'J 1 1 I -I l -.·1 I J I I ) J [1Ij •\1 (l Il,J 11L.-.1 each unit individually as well as the plant/reservoir and project oper- ation as a whole. 15.6 -Susitna Project Operation A reservoir simulation model was used to evaluate the optimum method of operation of the Susitna reservoirs and power plants at Watana and Devil Canyon. Substantial seasonal as well as over-the-year regulation of the river flow is achieved with the two reservoirs.The simulation of the reser- voirs and the power facilities at the two developments was carried out on a monthly basis to assess the energy potential of the schemes,river flows downstream and flood control possibilities with the reservoirs. Details of the computer model are described in Appendix B.The follow- ing paragraphs summarize the main features of reservoir operation. (a)Reservoir Operation Gross storage volume of the Watana reservoir at its normal maximum operating level of 2185 feet is 9.47 million ac/ft,which is about 1.6 times the mean annual flow (MAF)at the damsite.Live storage in the reservoir is about 4.3 million ac/ft (75 percent of MAF). Devi 1 Canyon reservoi r has a gross storage of about 1.1 mill i on ac/ft and live storage of 0.34 million ac/ft. (b)System Demand and Reservoir Operating Rules An optimum reservoir operation was established by an iterative process to minimize net system operating costs while maximizing firm and usable energy production.Four a lternat ive operati ng cases for the Watana reservoir (A,B,C,and D)were selected for study,to define the possible range of operation.Case A repre- sents an optimum power and energy scenario,while Case D reflects a case of II no impact on downstream fisheries ll or lI avoidance f l ows",Cases Band C are intermediate levels of power operation and downstream impact.These essentially define monthly minimum flows at Gold Creek that must be maintained while providing energy consistent with other project constraints.For feasibility report pur poses,operation model II All was adopted for project design. Studies with appropriate fisheries mitigation measures were developed based on Case A f l ows at Gold Creek.Details of the com- puter simulation runs for energy potential and their impact on project economics may be found in Appendix B. Table 15.1 presents a summary of potential energy generation with different operating rules for Watana and Devil Canyon developments. (c)Energy Potential of the Watana-Devil Canyon Developments Average annual energy potential of Watana development is 3460 GWh, and that of Devil Canyon development is 3340 GWh.A frequency 15-7 L analysis of the river hydrology was made to derive the firm annual energy potential (or the dependable capacity)of the hydro devel- opment. The Federal Energy Regul atory Commi ssion (FERC)defi nes the dependab 1e capacity of hydroe 1ectri c pl ants as:lithe capacity which,under the most adverse flow conditions of record can be relied upon to carry system load,provide dependable reserve capa- city,and meet firm power obligations taking into account seasonal variations and other characteristics of the load to be supplied" (1).Based on the Railbelt system studies and previous experience on large hydroelectric projects,it was assumed that a dry hydro- logical sequence with a recurrence period of the order of 1:50 years would constitute an adequate reliability for the Railbelt electrical system. An analysis of annual energy potential of the reservoirs showed that the lowest annual energy generation has a recurrence fre- quency of 1 in 300 years (see Fi gure 15.2).The second lowest annua 1 energy of 5400 GWh has a recurrence frequency of 1 in 70 years.Th is 1atter fi gure has been adopted as the firm energy from the development. Expressed another way,the firm energy,as defined,may fall short of its value by about 5 percent once in 300 years.This is, again,a conservative interpretation of the FERC definition. The monthly distribution of firm annual energy as simulated in the reservoir simulation has been used in system generation planning studies.Average monthly energy based on the recorded sequence hydrology is used in the economic analysis. (d)Reservoir Filling Seguence Given the rel ati ve si zes of the Watana and Devil Canyon reser- voirs,it is apparent that the most significant impact on the downstream flow regime will occur during filling of the Watana reservoir.Since this will be the first reservoir filled,careful (i)Watana Reservoir Impoundment Minimum monthly flows that must be maintained in the river below the dam during filling were established in consulta- tion with fisheries and other environmental study groups and agencies.Table 15.2 presents the minimum monthly flow that is considered acceptable for ri ver mai ntenance and fisheries requirements during the filling period.With the above mi nimum flow requirement,it would take at 1east 2-1/2 years of average stream flow to fill the reservoir. 15~8 I J -l / I ,} J .l' I I J I I l, I I -I I (l 11 IJ (j !J....1 11 11 [] IJ [1 It may be noted that the construction of the dam critically controls the reservoir filling in average streamflow years and restricts earlier filling should wet years be experi- enced.The driest recorded streamflow sequence would ex- tend the filling period by one year (see Figure 12.2). The fi 11 ing sequence in the years of average streamflow would allow first power on line by July,1993.The units coul d be tested and commi ssi oned pri or to th is date.A bonus in power and energy coul d be gai ned with one or two units installed by July 1992 when the power intake will be submerged sufficiently to allow power generation utilizing the minimum downstream flow requirements. (t t )Devil Canyon Reservoir With Watana Reservoir in operation,the filling of the Devil Canyon Reservoir is relatively easily accomplished • Average monthly power flows from Watana between the months October through December ina single year will fi 11 the reservoir while maintaining the minimum downstream flow re- quirements. (e)Operating Capabilities of Susitna Units (i)Turbine Performance The reservoir operati on studi es descri bed above show that the Watana plant output may vary anywhere from zero,with the unit at standstill or spinning reserve,to 1,200 MW when the six units are operating under maximum output at maximum head.(Note that there is a limitation in loading of a single unit in the zone of turbine operation from above speed-no-load operati on to about 50 percent load). The four units at Devil Canyon have a maximum total output of 700 MW at maximum head. The operating conditions of the turbines are summarized in Table 15.3. The turbine design head corresponds to the weighted average head.Based on the predicted daily load curves through the year 2010 and expected reservoir operation,it is expected that each unit at Watana is to supply a load averaging be- tween 196 MW and 100 MW.This is the load which corres- ponds most closely to the best efficiency operation of the turbine. Similarly,the Devil Canyon units will supply a load be- tween 174 MW and 100 MW. 15-9 (ii)Expected Unit Performance Characteristics The rated output of the turbi ne corresponds to full gate operat i on at the rated head.Each turbi ne should operate satisfactorily at the maximum head.The output of the gen- erator is'limited by its continuous maximum rat ingof 115 percent with a maximum temperature rise of BO°C.The con- tinuous maximum rating of the generator determines the max- imum output of the unit,and it will be necessary to limit the turbine output to this value at the higher heads. The plant efficiency with different numbers of units in operation is shown in Figures 15.3 and 15.4.In practice, the load following requirements of the plant results in widely varying loading,however,because of the multiple unit installation,the efficiency is relatively constant. (iii)Stability and Governing of Units Electrical transient stability studies of the Railbelt sys- tem indicate that the "natural"inertia of 3.2 to'3.5 kW- sec/KVA for the Watana and Devil Canyon generators is ade~ quate for electrical stability of the system. The pertinent plant data for stability and governing are given in Sections 12 and 13 for Watana and Devjl Canyon plant,respectively. Pressure rise and speed rise are within normally acceptable 1imits of about 40 to 50 percent.A ow ratio of the starting time of the water masses to the mechanical start- ing time of the unit is an indication of the hydraulic sta- bility and acceptable response (promptitude time constant) of the governor.Good governing response and stability are indicated for the Watana and Devil Canyon units and are important from the overall considerations of system load following and load-frequency response of the units. -~-tf-Y--Watana--P-}ant-D-a-ily-~S-imu-lat10 n-Studf-es- The objective of the plant daily simulation studies is to present performance studies of the selected 6-170MW'unit plant at Watana. The studies demonstrate its improved performance in comparison with a 4-250 MW plant.The simulation program was arranged to: -Study the operation and load following characteristics of the Watana powerplant with different number and rating of units; -Determine the effect of minimum and maximum loading constraints of the units; 15-10 - .1 I ) 1 1 1 I ._-] I I I I I I ] I j 1 1 11LJ U IJ IJ IJ I) - Determine the effect of critical single or double contingency outages of units on the amount and type of spi nni ng reserves available in the system; -Study the effects of maintenance outages and its impact on gen- eration scheduling and system reliability;and -Check the operation of gas turbines as peaking plant. (i)Computer Simulation Model To achieve the stated objectives,a computer simulation program was used to simulate Watana power plant and system operation.The Watana turbines and reservoir were modeled in detail to simulate closely the reservoir regulation and load following characteristics of the turbines. The model included the following principal features: - Turbine characteristics as a function of head,gate open- ing (flow),and efficiency. -Minimum loading limitations of the turbine due to opera- tion in the zone of rough operation up to 50 percent of the gate openings were constraints for turbine loading and operation. -Maximum continuous rating (MCR)of the generators con- stituted the maximum loading of the units. -Predicted daily system load demand curves were used for two typical load shapes for winter and summer,respec- tively.Monthly peak load variation of the load was taken into account. -Reservoir characteristics as a function of level and storage. - Unit by unit loading and de-loading of Watana generators according to load demand (load-following)was done taking into account all constrai nts mentioned above.The pro- gram loads the units equally for maximum efficiency of operation. -Loading steam plants as base-load plants,and gas tur- bines as peaking plants. -Maintenance scheduling of the generating units. 15-11 (i i)Results of the Simulation Studies Printouts of the results of the simulations are included in Appendix B.For each run,printouts are presented for the following outputs in a typical day for each month of the year 2000 (January to December): -Watana plant kW output; -Watana turbine kW output,with flow and efficiency for each uni t; -Watana turbine utilization,showing number of units loaded; -Watana reservoir level; - Peaking plant kW output; - Total system load kW demand; - Total system reserve,including maintenance outage; -Watana reserve capacity;and -Annual energy output of Watana,thermal plant,small hydro, gas turbine plants,and overall annual system energy• Simulation results of a typical December,2000 day is shown in Figure 15.5.The simulation indicates that the six unit Watana plant (6-170 MW)has superior overall performance in terms of load followi ng,improved overall efficiency and minimum loading constraints over the four unit plant (4-250 MW)• The overall rel i abil ity of the six unit Watana plant is also better than that of the four unit plant.During main- ..tenance-the .six'unit pl-ant-has-ap'l-anned'ou"t'ageof170 MW, as opposed to 250 MW for the four unit plant.During peak December loading,a double contingency outage of two units brings down system reserve to 107 MW for the 6-170 MW unit plant and to less than zero for the 4-250 MW unit plant. The simulations indicate that sufficient spinning reserve comprising a minimum of one Watana unit is available for all peak day loadings for the six unit Watana plant for the year 2000 study. I 'I.s. 1 I I I f~1 J J J I I I J J I I ) 1 [~)15.7 -Performance Monitoring (a)Watana Dam Instrumentation is installed to enable the performance of the dam to be monitored to ensure that its behavior is within the limits assumed in the design,and to enable any variations beyond those 1 imits to be recogni zed qui ck ly so that remedi a 1 acti on can be taken without delay. The most important aspects of the monitoring program and likely maintenance requirements are outlined below: (i)Foundation Abutment Pore Pressures and Discharge From Pressure Relief System Si nce secti ons of the foundation are frozen,the grouted cut-off may not be fully effecti ve,and 1eakage may i n- crease as the rock temperature increases. This condition would be indicated by increased discharge from the drainage system and would be remedied byaddi- tional grouting from the grouting gallery,possibly com- bined with additional drainage holes. (ii)Quality of Discharge from Pressure Relief System Any discoloration of the drainage system discharge would indicate the leaching of fine material either from the rock foundation or from the core.The problem area would be located and additional grouting carried out.Water quality should also be monitored for any change in mineral con- tent. (iii)Deformation of the Structure Most deformation of the structure as observed by settle- ments and lateral movements is expected to occur soon after construction and under initial filling of the reservoir. Any excessive settlement would be made good to maintain freeboard.Deformation records would be correlated with such data as reservoir 1evel,heavy storms and sei smic activity. (iv)Routine Observations An essential part of any monitoring program is a regular routine visual inspection of all exposed parts of the structure and the area downstream of the dam for any un- usual features such as local settlement or other movement, zones of seepage discharge,wet areas,and changes in vege- tation.All exposed concrete surfaces would also be in- spected and records kept of any signs of distress,cracking or deterioration. 15-13 -Corrective maintenance,to restore lost efficiency of plant;and -Emergency maintenance,arising from plant failure. (v)Relict Channel I ) I I I 1 1 :J :~ I I ] ) I~ :.1 il ...j ] I I ) Access and Maintenance in the Powerhouse Techniques developed both in the design and the operation of con- ventional underground hydroelectric power plants have resulted in Frequency of Inspections and Maintenance Experience records from machines similar to the Watana and Devil Canyon machines indicate that a minimum maintenance period of 5 to 6 days are required for each machine,resulting in an outage of 150 to 170 MW capacity for an average period of 50 to 60 days in the year.In exceptional cases,certain machines may be down for greater maintenance periods.It is therefore reasonable to allow a total of 2-1/2 to 3 months planned outage as a conservative ap- proach to system generati on and mai ntenance--pl ennt ng for the S_usitoa_units.In prjn!::iJ)JE!,:t:IlE!~E!~!ages are schedule~during the months of June to August when'the Tower-summerT6ad demands make it possible to release the units for maintenance.The actual outages will be coordinated on a week-to-week basis with the planned maintenance of the units in the rest of the system,and will take into consideration emergency shutdowns,breakdowns,de- lays in construction and maintenance and other unforeseen contin- gencies. (b) (a) Particular attention must be paid to monitoring the entire area of the relict channel,including regular readings of piezometers and thermistors,of surface elevation,survey monitoring and inspections of the discharge zone for changes in seepage flows and any signs of piping failure. Notwithstanding this,generating plant must undergo periodic mainten- ance for various reasons: -Preventive maintenance, to ensure safe and reliable operation (per~ formed either on load or shut down); 15.8 -Plant Operation and Maintenance The system demand varies throughout the year from a winter (December/ January)peak to a summer (July/August)trough,and from hour-to-hour throughout the day.The Central Dispatch Center operates with the ob- ject of ensuring that sufficient plant is available at all times to meet the varying load in accordance with a merit-order schedule with due consideration to reliability. underground facilities which are not significantly more difficult to maintain than surface plants.Isolation of underground instal- lations from both penstock water and from tailrace water is a vi- tally important factor.Downstream water conduits with manifolds require draft tube isolating devices of appropriate design. Drainage and dewatering facilities must be highly reliable and of adequate capacity. There will be situations where a decision must be made as to whether to carry out maintenance and repair work on components un- derground or on the surface.Many items are 1arge and heavy and therefore are best handl ed by the powerhouse crane.Suffi cient erection bay space and laydown area between the generating units are provided for all normal maintenance and overhaul needs. Transformers wi 11 be moved withi n the access tunnel andtransfor- mer gallery by means of wheels mounted on the transformer base. The greatest demand in laydown space within the powerhouse cavern is likely to occur during the initial equipment installation pro- cess and the 10 to 15 year major disassembly/maintenance proce- dure.The working area will be sized to allow the simultaneous placing of turbine and generator components. (c)Major Overall Activities The major activities which require special space and handling con- siderations in the plants include: - Replacing generator stator winding coils; - Rotor inspection; -Replacement of thrust-bearing assemblies; -Replacement of runner seals; -Cavitation damage repair to runner; - Repair and refinishing of waterpassage steel and concrete sur- faces; - Generator circuit breaker repair;and - Transformer maintenance. (d)Maintenance Workshops The Watana and Devi 1 Canyon power pl ants are each provided with workshops to faci 1Hate the normal mai ntenance needs of each plant.The workshop block includes operations for fitting and macht nt nq, welding,electrical,and relay instrumentation,with adequate stores for tools and spare parts.The Watana power plant will be provided additionally with surface maintenance and central storage facilities to cater to the needs of both plants. Maintenance operation plannings of both plants are centralized at Watana.Staff will be normally located at Watana and housed at the operqtors village at Watana.With centralized control of the 15-15 Susitna project located at Watana,the Devil Canyon plant will not have a resident operating and maintenance staff.Proper road and transport facilities should be maintained between Watana and Devil Canyon to facil itate movement of personnel and/or equipment be- tween the plants. 15- I ] '1 } 'j ] 1 .J J .1 ] J 1 J -j J ......].. 1 1 } lJ lJ IJ U LIST OF REFERENCES 1.U.S.Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Hydroelectric Power Evaluation,DOE/FERC-0031,August 1979. r ) 11 lJ [] (] U I) TABLE 15.1:ENERGY POTENTIAL OF WATANA -DEVIL CANYON DEVELOPMENTS FOR DIFFERENT RESERVOIR OPERATING RULES ENE R G Y POT E N T I A L GWH WA TAN A U N L WA TAN A &D E V I C A N YON tlt M t.Nt.HlY tor ~HliY t HM t.Nt.~iY t.Nt HliY MONTH CASE A C D A C D A C D A C D OCT 234 200 172 2B1 214 17B 437 399 334 511 422 346 NOV 270 235 201 34B 331 271 502 463 3BB 543 625 506 DEC 322 276 236 445 397 364 59B 547 45B B17 751 6B3 JAN 2B3 242 20B 3B3 357 325 590 4BO 403 715 677 61B FEB 22B 202 173 31B 335 293 452 395 330 599 632 561 MAR 235 201 173 276 330 277 470 39B 335 532 629 536 APR 199 165 142 203 214 197 460 332 2BO 451 419 3B7 MAY 1BO 152 131 1BO 247 174 462 304 2B6 465 536 399 JUN 170 135 111 175 212 191 492 323 27B 478 4B5 460 JUL 1B2 209 345 25B 267 374 3B7 471 755 521 579 7B4 AUG 170 311 531 344 327 545 321 659 1095 59B 679 1095 SEP 15B 151 155 249 15B 166 293 326 390 463 346 395 •TOTAL 2632 2479 257B 3459 33B9 3354 5394 5099 5332 6793 67B1 676B NOTE:Cases Band C were similar and only Case C was analyzed in detail. TABLE 15.2:MINIMUM ACCEPTABLE FLOWS BELOW WATANA DAM DURING RESERVOIR FILLING MONTH MINIMUM ACCEPTABLE FLOW CFS OCT 2050 NOV 900 DEC 900 JAN 900 FEB 900 MAR 900 APR 900 MAY 4000 JUN 4000 JUL 6000 AUG 6000 SEP 4600 ) ) ] 1 ) ) ) ) ), ) ) ] ] J ) ..) I 1 11 (J [~l r-l ,1 TABLE 15.3:TURBINE OPERATING CONDITIONS i I J I I ••Ii ] (J 11u lJ u lJ Maximum net head Minimum net head Design head Rated head Turbine flow at rated head Turbine efficiency at design head Turbine-generating rating at rated head Watana Devil Canyon 728 feet 597 feet 576 feet 238 feet 680 feet 575 feet 680 feet 575 feet 3550 feet 3800 feet 91%9U~ 181,500 kW 164,000 kW i _i --'--!-::::"_-.-J -./-...."- I -, /\ "-......V FMAMJJASOND MONTH LOAD VARIATION IN YEAR 2000 / <,/ -,/ <,/- I I I 500 100 o 800 900 1000 1100 '"<{ ~400 300 200 ~~700 ~600 o..J 242016812 HOURS SUMMER WEEKDAY HOURLY LOAD VARIATIOti 4 /--....."'"-1/-, J-,/......-.../ o o 100 90 o 80<{ 0 ..J 70 '"<{60 llJ 0. ...50 0 I-40 z ~30 a: ~20 10 242016812 HOURS WINTER WEEKDAY HOURLY LOAD VARIATION 4 o o 100 90 o 80 <{3 70 ~60 llJ 0.50u, 0 40I- ~30o a: llJ 200. 10 NOTE: PEAK MW DECEMBER 2000 AD =1084 MW NOTE: PEAK MW JULY 2000 AD =658 MW TYPICAL LOAD VARIATION IN ALASKA RAILBELT SYSTEM FIGURE 15.1 r---', L-._-...... 15 I I I I I I I 1.11 RETURN PERIOD IN YEARS 1.25 2 5 10 .-,I rt WATANA PLUS DEVIL CANYON 100 1000 ,--"I 1_ "r""""'t _ I II II I I 1 I I,-WATANA ONLY , I I I I I I I I LOWEST ANNUAL _-+_--t-_-+_--t-__t---'==_.....I=::=:---t----+--JI---t---".-E'='N'-'-=ERGY SIMULATED I I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 'Ii I II I1I11 1----+0-- r-I L I I I I I I FIRM ENERGY-, I I ,___ , ,Tr-+--l- I I I I I I I f FIRM ENERGY ""'"'I i-I-_ LOWEST ANNUAL.: ENERGY SIMULATED 99.8 99.99899959020304050607080 PERCENT EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY 105_2 0.5 I 2 I I I I I I I!I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I ! 0.01 0.05 0.1 C FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF AVERAGE ANNUAL ENERGY FOR SUSITNA DEVELOPMENTS FIGURE 15.2 I~~~m !\ i i I \v '\ I I 94 r---.,------.,.-----r-------,---------r-----.-----, r I ) 90 i) 1\ lJ 86 1\~ I.)~ >-u I 1 Z i I w (3 82IIi:i:u,w 11 78 (J 74 I I II 100 300 500 700 PLANT OUTPUT (MW) 900 1100 Ll i IiJ WATANA-UNIT EFFICIENCY (AT RATED HEAD) FIGURE IJIII I [J 11 I,J 94 90 86 >-ozw §82u, u,w 78 74 I Ij\NIT ~~IT/LI..3 UNITS ~4 UNITS V V .........~ (\1/V ~ !II I I 100 200 300 400 PLANT OUTPUT (MW) 500 600 I 1 1.1 'IJ DEVIL CANYON -UNIT EFFICIENCY (AT RATED HEAD) FIGURE IJ ~~I!~I SUSITI~A F'ROJECT SI~ULmO/j :2000(f,ElI.LOAII):UATAIlII 6-170 Page Hinir,ufii l.:ATflNh verses TIME lio:-:iruur.,Minin,ufu RESEF:V verses TIME Ha}:ilbuDI 1.0321Ef05 3.0339Et05 4.4711Ef05 1.1428Et06 TIME UATA:lA ::II GEtJKU EFF RESERV :.INSTAL KULOAO UATRES. 1;0~25E+01 6.4956Et05 ------------------------------+4-:-0000EtOO 1.6239Et05 9.1580£-01 6.0144Et05 -----t I.531 OEt06 9.2956Et05 4.2646Et05 ~16 HRS,1.0667EfOI 6.8468Ef05 ----------------------~----t 4.0000E+00 1.7117Et05 9.0705£-01 5.6632£t05 -------+I.5310Et06 9.646BEt05 3.9129Et05 Cl I.070llEfOl 7:1935Et05 ------------------------------+5.0000EtOO 1.4387H05 9.1747E-Ol 5:3165Et05 -----+1.5310Et06 9.9935Et05 3.5656Et05...I _18__1.0750EtOI 7.0940£+05 -----------------------------------------t MOOOEtOO 1.7735Et05 8.9966E-Ol 5.4160E+05 ------t 1.5310Et06 9.8940Et05 3.6645Ef05<to:uw 1.0792EtOI 6.960BEt05 -----------------------------------------f MOOOE fOO 1.7152Et05 9.0661£-01 5.6492Et05 -------t 1.5310£+06 9.660BE+05 3.8971E+05-aJ ~0..:;;1.0833EtOI.0,6276£+05 ---------------------------------------f 4.0000EtOO 1.6569Et05 9.1455E-OI 5.8B24E+05 ---------+1.5310Et06 9.4276Ef05 4.I 29BEt05>-w1->1.0875E+01 6.3935£+05 _______________________________c ______+ 4.0000E+00 I.5994Et05 9.1651£-01 6.1165Et05 -----"----+I.5310Et06 9.1935Et05 4.3634E+05 0 ~1.0917£+01 5,7272E+05 --------------------------------f 4.0000E+00 1.431BEt05 9.16BB£-01 6.7B28Et05 ----------------t 1.5310Ef06 B.5272Et05 5.0292E+05z 1.0950EtOI 5.0609[f05 ----------------------------f 3.0000EtOO 1.6B70E+05 9.1049E-OI 7.4491E+05 --------------------f 1.5310Et06 7.8609Et05 5.6951Et05241.1000EtOl 4.8959Ef05 I 3.0000EtOO 1.6320£+05 9.1560E-01 7.6141Et05 1 .1.5310£+06 7.6959Et05 5.B598Et05 OHRS,1.1042E+01 4.6429E+05 ------------------------f 3.0000E+00 1.5476Et05 9,1789£-01 7.B671E+05 ------------------------f 1.5310Et06 7.4429Et05 6.1123Et0521.1033£+01 4.3900Et05 -----------------------f 3.0000EtOO 1.4633Et05 9.1944£-01 8.1200Et05 -------------------------t 1.5310£+06 7.1900£+05 6.3649E f05 1.1125EtOI 4.I38IEf05 ---------------------t 3.0000EtOO 1.3794Et05 9.l258E-01 B.3719Et05 ----------------------------t 1.5310£+06 6.9381E+05 6.6165Et05_4__ 1.1167£+01 4,3549£+05 -----------------------+3.0000E+00 1.4516Ef05 9.1847£-01 8.1551Et05 .--------------------------+1.5310Et06 7.1549£+05 6.3994E+05, 1.120BEfOl 4.5717£+05 -------------------------f 3.0000EtOO 1.5239Et05 9.1854£-01 7.9383£+05 --------------------t 1.5310Et06 7.3717Et05 6.IB22Et05_6__1.1250£+01 4.7397E+05 --------------------------f 3.0000EtOO 1.5966Et05 9.1657£-01 7.7203Et05 ..;----------------------+1.5310Et06 7.5B97Et05 5.9638Ef05 1.1292EtOl 5,5847£+05 --------------------------------f 4.0000HOO 1.3962E+05 9.1393E-OI 6.9253Et05 ----------------f 1.5310Et06 8.3B47£+05 5.16B4Et058__ 1.I 333EtOI 6.3796E+05 -------------------------------------f 4.0000HOO 1i5949Et05 9.1662£-01 ·6.1304Et05 -----------t 1.5310Et06 9.1796£+05 4.3730£+05 ~1.1375EtOl 7.I72BEt05 ---------~---------------------------------t 5.0000£+00 I.4346Et05 9.1706£-01 5.3372[+05 ------+I.5310Ef06 9.9728Et05 3.5792Ef05 Cl 10 1.1417EtOl 7.1728Ef05 -------------------------------------------f 5.0000EtOO 1.4346£+05 9.1705E-Ol 5.3372Et05 ------+1.5310Et06 9.9728£+05 3.57B6£+05...I -- <t 0:1.1458EtOl 7.1728Et05 ------------------------------------------f 5.0000EfOO 1.4346E+05 9.1704£-01 5.3372£+05 -----t 1.5310£+06 9.9728£+05 3.57BOEf05UWNOON1.1500EtOl 7.1729El05 -------------------------------------------f 5.0000E+00 1.4346£+05 9.1704£-01 5.3371£+05 ------f 1.5310£t06 9.9729Et05 3.5773Et05-aJ0..:;;1.1542EfOI 7.2090E+05 ~------------------------------------------+5,0000£tOO 1.4418£+05 9,1762E-OI 5.3010Et05 -----+1.5310E+06 1.0009£+06 3.5405Et05>-wI-u _14__1.1533E+01 7,2451£~·O5 --------------------------------------------f 5,000mOo 1.4490Et05 9.1S20E-Ol 5.2649£+05 -----f '1.5310£+06 1.0045Etol>3,5038Et05uro1.1biSEfOl 7.2321Et05 --------------------------------------------f 5.0000EtOO I.4564£t05 9,1880£-01 5,2279£+05 -----t 1.5310£+06 I.00B2Et06 3.4662Et051_6__1.16/,7EfOI I.U30E105 -----------------------------------------------f 5.0000£fo<)1,5326E+05 9,1833E-Ol 4.B470£+05 --+I.5310Et06 1.0463E+06 3.0B47Et05 1.1708EtOl B.0389Et05 -------------------------------------------------+5.0000£+00 I.6078Ef05 9.1629£-01 4.4711Et05 t 1,5310Et06 1.0839Et06 2.708IE+051_8__1.1750[{01 7.9310Et05 -------------------------------------------------+5.0000EtOO I.5862£+05 9,1688£-01 4.5790Et05 t 1.5310Et06 1.0731Ef06 2.8153Et05 I.1792E+01 7,6781E+05 -----------------------------------------------f 5.0000£fOO 1.5356Et05 9.1826£-01 4.8319E+05 --f 1.5310Et06 1.047B£+06 3,0675Et05 20 LIB33E+01 7,~252[~O5 ----._----------------------------------------+5.0000Et00 1.4850Et05 9.1963E-01 5.0B4BEt05 ----+1.5310£+06 r'.0225Et06 3,319BEt05 1.1S7SaOl 7.l7Im05 -------------------------------------------f 5.0000EtOO 1.~342E+05 9.1695Hl 5.3389£+05 ------t 1.5310Et06 9.9711£+05 3.5732Ef05~1.l917E101 C.44CS[105 --------------------------------------1 4.0000£+00 1.6121Ef05 9.1619£-01 6.0615E+05 -----------+1.5310£+06 9.24B5Et05 4.2953Et05 24 HRS, 1.195BEtOl 5,725fJEtOS ---------------------------------t 4.0000£tOO 1.4315Et05 9.167IE-01 6.7B42Et05 ---------------+1.5310£+06 B.5258£+05 5.0174Et05 Ez<t z 0:::>ClzoO:I:<t-!;tu >-W W !;t!;t ...Io:<t t.)>~...I~t-~t-:=0:wW z 0::=~:=...J z~w ur ~:.:~z:=<t:=l1..0..z~o~(1)'::-<t:.:w:.:ui ->o~...I:.:0 0 (!>~i:L:t-0:>-Z t-:=c[~o..~->-o:~l1..Z :.:<t w<tl-<tl-ww :;;!:::::;;t-:;;~ z::>W z::>o Wt.)Wo w z6: ~:=aJ(I)~:=t-O:~lt ~lt t-Cl ~w:;;!::::_w (I)<t <t(l)~5 ::>z ~5 zo..>-<t >-<t >-0 :=~z::>::>~(l)t.)(l)t.)(1)..:.1 WATANA PLANT SIMULATION DECEMBER 2000 FIGURE 15,5 fl (1 16 -ESTIMATES OF COST This section presents estimates of capital and operating costs for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project,comprising the Watana and Devil Canyon developments and associated transmission and access facilities.The costs of design features and facilities incorporated into the project to mitigate environmental impacts during construction and operation are identified.A cash flow schedules,outlining capital requirements during planning,construction,and start-up are presented.The approach to the deriv~tion of the capital and operating costs estimates is descri bed. The total cost of the Watana and Devil Canyon projects is summarized in Table 16.1.A more detailed breakdown of cost for each development is presented in Tables 16.2 and 16.3. 16.1 -Construction Costs This section describes the process used for deri·vation of cons~ruction costs and discusses the Code of Accounts established,the basis for the estimates and the various assumptions made in arriving at the esti- mates. For general consistency with planning studies,all costs devel- oped for the project are in January,1982 dollars. (a)Code of Accounts Estimates of construction costs were developed using the FERC for- mat as outlined in the Federal Code of Regulations,Title 18 (1). The estimates have been subdivided into the following main cost groupings: 11 lJ \\u Group Production Plant Transmission Plant General Plant 16-1 Description Costs for structures,equip- ment,and facilities necessary to produce power. Costs for structures,equip- ment,and facilities necessary to transmit power from the sites to load centers. Costs for equipment and facili- ties required for the operation and mai ntenance of the produc- tion and transmission plant. (b)Approach to Cost Estlmatlng The detalled schedule of account Hems is presented i n Appendix C. f j 1 ! .,] 1 I l 1 I I 1 l -1 1 ..l 1 l Production Plant Reservoir,Dam,and Waterways Main Dam Main Dam Structure Excavation Rock Costs for englneering and admlnlstratlon. Costs that are common to a number of construct 1on act 1vi- t i es. For th i s estlmate only camps and electric power costs have been lncluded in this group.Ot her 1nd i rect cost s have been included in the costs under product 1on,trans- mission,and general plant costs. Descrlption Determlnatlon of direct unlt costs for each major type of work by development of labor,material,and equipment requlrements; development of other costs by use of estlmating guides,quota- tions from vendors,and other lnformatlon as approprlate; The estlmating process used generally lncluded the following steps: Overhead Construction Costs -Revi ew of engineeri ng drawl ngs and techni ca1 i nformatl on wi th regard to construction methodology and feasibility; - Productlon of detailed quantity takeoffs from drawings in accor- dance wi th the prevlously developed Code of Accounts and Hem listlng; -Group: -Account 332: -Maln Structure 332.3: -Element 332.31: -Work Item 332.311: -Type of Work: -Collection and assembly of detailed cost data for labor,mater- ial,and equipment as well as information on product i vi t y,cli- matic cond i t lons,and other relatedri t ems; Indi rect Costs Further subdlvlslon Wlthin these groupings was made on the basis of the various types of work involved,as t yp i cal Iy shown in the following example: Group r~ I I. i I f] [] I ) 11II 11I ) Development of construction indirect costs by review of labor, material equipment,supporting facilities,and overheads;and -Development of construct i on camp si ze and support requi rements from the labor demand generated by the construction direct and indirect costs. The above steps are discussed in detail in the following: (c) Cost Data Cost information was obtained from standard estimating sources, from sources in Alaska, from quotes by major equipment suppliers and vendors,and from represent at ive recent hydroe 1ectr ic pro- jects.Labor and equipment costs for 1982 were developed from a number of sources (2,3)and from an analysi s of costs for recent projects performed in the Alaska environment. It has been assumed that contractors wi 11 work an average of two 9-hour shifts per day, 6 days per week,with an expected range as fo 11 ows: Mechanical/Electrical Work Formwork/Concrete Work Excavation/Fill Work 8-hour shifts 9-hour shifts 10-hour shifts LJ 1 LJ LJ \] These assumptions provide for high utilization of construction equipment and reasonable levels of overtime earnings to attract workers.The two-shift basis generally achieves the most economical balance between labor and camp costs. Construction equipment costs were obtained from vendors o~an FOB Anchorage basis with an appropriate allowance included for trans- portation to site.A representative list of construction equip- ment requi red for the project was assembled as a basis for the est imate.It has been assumed that most equipment would be fully depreciated over the life of the project.For some activities such as construction of the Watana main dam,an allowance for major overhaul was included rather than fleet replacement.Equip- ment operat i ng costs were est imated from ;ndustry source data, wi th appropri ate mod ifi cat ions for the remote nature and extreme climatic environment of the site.Fuel and oil prices have also been included based upon FOB site prices. Information for permanent mechanical and electrical equipment was obt ained from vendors and manufacturers who provi ded guide 1ine costs on major power plant equipment. The costs of materials required for site construction were esti- mated on the basis of suppliers·quotations,adjusted for Alaskan conditions. 16-3 (d)Seasonal Influences on Productlvlty A revlew of climat lc conditions,together with an ana lys i s of experlence ln Alaska and in Northern Canada on large constructlon projects was undertaken to determine the average duration for var- i ous key act i v i t i es .It has been assumed for current study pur- poses that most aboveground actlvltles wlll elther stop or be cur- tal led dur i nq the per i od of December and January because of the extreme cold weather and the assoclated lower product i v i ty.For the main dam construction act lv i t i es ,the followlng assumptlons have been used: - Watana dam fill - 6-month season;and -Devll Canyon arch dam - 8-month season. Other aboveground actlvlties are assumed to extend up to 11 months dependlng on the type of work and the crlticallty of the schedule. Underground actlvities are generally not affected by climate and should contlnue throughout the year. Studies by others (4) have indicated a 60 percent or greater decrease 1n effi c t ency 1n construct 1on operat ions under adverse wl nter condit 1ons.Therefore,it is expected that most contrac- tors would attempt to schedule outslde work over a perlod of be- tween 6 to 10 months. Studles performed as part of thls work program lndlcate that the general constructlon act i v t ty at the Susitna damsite durlng the months of Apri l through September would be comparable with that tn the northern sect i ons of the western Un ited St ates.Rai nfa 11 1n the general regi on of the site 1s moderate between mi d-Apri 1 and ml d-Oc tober ranglng from a low of 0.75 Inches precipitatlon in Apri l to a h i qh of 5.33 inches in August.Temperatures in t h i s perlod range from 33°to 66°for a twenty-year average.In the flve-month per i od from November through March,the temperature ranges from 9.4°F to 20.3°F with snowfall of 10 lnches per month. (e)Constructlon Methods The constructlon methods assumed for development of the estlmate and constructlon schedule,are generally consldered as "normal", ln llne wlth the avallable level of technlcal information.A con- servatlve approach has been taken ln those areas where more detalled lnformatlon wlll be developed durlng subsequent investl- gatlon and englneerlng programs.For example,normal dr i l l i nq, bl ast i nq, and mucklng methods have been assumed for all under- ground excavatlon.Also conventlonal equipment has been con- s 1dered for major fi 11 and concrete work. Various construct 1on methods were cons 1dered for several of the major work items to determlne the most economlcally practlcal method. For example,a comprehensive evaluatlon was made of the means of excavatlng materl a 1 from Borrow SHe E and the downstream rlver for the j 1 1 I I i ~l 1 I ! (f) Watana dam shells.A comparison of excavation by dragline, dredge,backhoe,and scraper bucket methods was made,with consid- eration given to the quantity of material available,distance from the dam,and location in the river or adjacent terraces. Quantity Takeoffs 11I ] \J LJ Det ai 1ed quant i ty takeoffs were produced from the engi neeri ng drawings using methods normal to the industry.The quantities developed are those listed in the detailed summary estimates in Appendix C. (g)Indirect Construction Costs Indirect construction costs were estimated in detail for the civil construction activities.A more general evaluation was used for the mechanical and electrical work. Indirect costs included the following: -Mobilization; Technical and supervisory personnel above the level of trades foremen; - All vehicle costs for supervisory personnel; - Fixed offices,mobile offices,workshops,storage facilities, and laydown areas,including all services; - General transportation for workmen on site and off site; -Yard cranes and floats; -Utilities including electrical power,heat,water,and com- pressed air; -Small tools; -Safety program and equipment -Financing; -Bonds and securities; -Insurance; - Taxes; -Permits; -Head office overhead; - Contingency allowance;and -Profit. In developing contractor's indirect costs,the following assump- tions have been made: -Mobilization costs have generally been spread over construction items; -No escalation allowances have been made,and therefore any risks associated with escalation are not included; 16-5 - Financing of progress payments has been estimated for 45 days, the average time between expenditure and reimbursement; -Holdback would be limited to a nominal amount; -Project all-risk insurance has been estimated as a contractor's indirect cost for this estimate,but it is expected that this insurance would be carried by the owner;and Contract packaging would provide for the supply of major mater- ials to contractors at site at cost.These include fuel,elec- tric power,cement,and reinforcing steel. 16.2 -Mitigation Costs As discussed in previous sections,the project arrangement includes a number of features designed to mitigate potential impacts on the natur- al environment and on residents and communities in the vicinity of the project.In addition,a number of measures are planned during con- struct i on of the project to mit i gate simi1ar impacts caused 'by con- struction activities.The measures and facilities represent additional costs to the project than would be normally required for safe and effi- cient operation of a hydroelectric development.These mitigation costs have been estimated at $149 million and have been summarized in Table 16.4.In addition,the costs of full reservoir clearing at both sites has been estimated at $85 million.Although full clearl nq t i s con- sidered good engineering practice,it is not essential to the operation of the power facilities.These costs include direct and indirect costs,engineering,administration,and contingencies\ A number of mitigation costs are associated with facilities,improve- ments or other programs not directly related to the project or located outside the project boundaries.These would include the following items: - Caribou barriers; - Fish channels; ish hatcheri es; .-~St-l"eam-i·mpI"0vementst-.~-~~-~~_._~....._~_._-_..._._.. -Salt licks; -Recreational facilities; -Habitat management for moose; Fish stocking program in reservoirs;and -Land acquistion cost for recreation. It is anticipated that some of these features or programs will not be required during or after construction of the project.In this regard a probabi 1ity factor has been assi gned to each of the above items,and the estimated cost of each reduced accordingly.The estimated cost of these measures, based on this procedure,is approximately $9 million. These costs have been assumed to be covered by the construction contin- gency. ..16-6 IJ L] A number of studi es and programs wi 11 be requi red to moni tor the impacts of the project on the environment and to develop and record various data during project construction and operation.These include' the following: -Archaeological studies; -Fisheries and wildlife studies; - Right-of-way studies;and -Socioeconomic planning studies. The costs for the above work have been estimated to be included in the owner's costs under project overheads. 16.3 -Operation,Maintenance,and Replacement Costs The facilities and procedures for operation and maintenance of the pro- ject are described in Section 15.Assumptions for the size and extent of these facilities have been conservatively made on the basis of experience at large hydroelectric developments in northern climates, noteably Canada.The annual cost s for operat ion,mai ntenance,and interim repl acement for the Watana development have been est imated at $10 million.When Devil Canyon is brought on line these costs increase to $15.2 million per annum. 16.4 -Engineering and Administration Costs Engineering has been subdivided into the following accounts for the purposes of the cost estimates: -Account 71 . Engineering and Project Management Construction Management .Procurement -Account 76 Owner's Costs The total cost of engineering and administrative activities has been estimated at 12.5 percent of the total construction costs,including conti ngenc i es.Th is is in general agreement with experi ence on pro- jects similar in scope and complexity.A detailed breakdown of these costs is dependent on the organizational structur-e established to undertake design and management of the project,as well as more defini- tive data relating to the scope and nature of the various project com- ponents.However,the main elements of cost included are as follows: (a) Engineering and Project Management Costs These costs include allowances for: 16-7 -Fe as tbt l t ty stud i es,lncluding sl t e surveys and lnvestigations and logistlcs support; -Preparation of a llcense application to the FERC; - Technlcal and admlnistratlve i nput for other federal,state and local permit and license applicatlons; - Overall coordlnation and administratlon of englneerlng,con- structlon management,and procurement activitles; - Overall plannlng,coordinatlon,and monltorlng activities related to cost and schedule of the project; -Coordlnation with and reportlng to the Power Authority regarding all aspects of the project; -Prellmlnary and detailed design; Technlcal input to procurement of construction services,support servlces,and equlpment; - Monltoring of constructlon to ensure conformance to design requirements; -Preparatlon of start-up and acceptance test procedures;and -Preparatlon of project operating and maintenance manuals. (b)Construction Management Costs Constructlon management costs have been assumed/to lnclude: -Initlal plannlng and schedullng and establlshment of project procedures and organlzatlon; -Co ordi nat i on of ons i t e contractors and constructlon management act 1vH 1es; -Administratlon of onsite contractors to ensure harmony of trades,comp l i ance wlth appllcable regylatlons,and maintenance of adequate slte security and safety requirements; -Development,coordinatlon,and monitorlng of constructlon schedules; -Constructlon cost control; -Materlal,equlpment and drawing control; -Inspectlon of constructlon and survey control; -Measurement for payment; -Start-up and acceptance test for equipment and systems; - Compilation of as-constructed records;and (c)Procurement Costs Procurement costs have been assumed to include: -Establlshment of project procurement procedures; -Preparatlon 0+non-technical procurement documents; -Sollcltatlon and revlew of bids for constructlon servlces,sup- port services,permanent equlpment,and other items required to complete the project; - Cost admlnlstratlon and control for procurement contracts;and -Quality assurance services durlng fabricatlon or manufacture of equlpment and other purchased items. 16-8 1 .1 l II I 1 f.1 J I• I l 1 I I I I j I l .-! J [1 (1 i i lJ )J :J j (d)Owner's Costs Owner's costs have been assumed to include the following: Administration and coordination of project management and engineering organizations; -Coordination with other state,local,and federal agencies and groups having jurisdiction or interest in the project; -Coordination with interested public groups and individuals; - Reporting to legislature and the public on the progress of the project;and -Legal costs (Account 72). 16.5 -Allowance for Funds Used During Construction At current high levels of interest rates in the financial market-place, AFDC will amount to a significant element of financing cost for the lengthy periods required for construction of the Watana and Devil Can- yon projects.However,in economic evaluations of the Susitna project, the low real rates of interest assumed would have a much reduced impact on assumed project deve1opment costs.Furthermore, as discussed in Section 18,direct state involvement in financing of the Susitna pro- ject will also have a significant impact on the amount,if any, of AFDC.For purposes of the current feas i bi1i ty study,therefore,the conventional practice of calculating AFDC as a separate line item for inclusion as part of project construction cost,has not been followed. Provisions for AFDC at appropri ate rates of interest are made in the economic and financial analyses described in Section 18. 16.6 -Escalation As noted,all costs presented in this Section are at January,1982 levels,and consequently include no allowance for future cost escala- tion.Thus,these costs would not be truly representative of construc- tion and procurement bid prices.This is because provision must be made in such bids for continuing escalation of costs,and the extent and variation of escalation which might take place over the lengthy construction periods involved.Economic and financial evaluations dis- cussed in Section 18 take full account of such escalation at appropri- ately assumed rates. 16.7 -Cash Flow and Manpower Loading Requirements The cash flow requirements for construction of Watana and Devil Canyon are an essential input to economic and financial planning studies dis- cussed in Section 18.The basis for the cash flow are the construction cost estimates in January,1982 dollars and the construction schedules presented in Section 17,with no provision being made as such for esca- lation.The cash flow estimates were computed on an annual basis and do not include adjustments for advanced payments for mobilization or for holdbacks on construction contracts.The results are presented in Figures 16.1 through 16.3.The manpower loading requirements,which 16-9 are included in Appendix C, were developed from cash flow projections. These curves were used as the basis for camp loading and associated socioeconomic impact studies. 16.8 -Contingency A contingency allowance of 17.5 percent of construction costs has been inc 1uded in the cost est i mates.The cont i ngency is est imated to include cost increases which may occur in the detailed engineering phase of the project after more comprehensive site investigations and final designs have been completed and after the requirements of various concerned agenc i es have been accounted for.The cont i ngency est i mate also includes allowances for inherent uncertainties in costs of labor, equipment and materi als,and for unforeseen conditions which may be encountered during construction.Escalation in costs due to inflation is not included.No allowance has been included for costs associated with significant delays in project implementation. 16=10 i \ i \ ! I .~ l ...~ I 1 I l I I ···1.1 I 1 ! [1 -...J 11,I I IU LIST OF REFERENCES 1.Code of Federal Regulations,Title 18,Conservation of Power and Water Resources,Parts 1 and 2,Washington,D.C.,Government Printing Office,1981. 2.Alaska Agreements of Wages and Benefits for Constructi on Trades. In effect January 1982. 3.Caterpill ar Performance Handbook,Caterpi 11 ar Tr actor Co.,Peori a, Illinois,October 1981. 4.Roberts,William S.,Regionalized Feasibility Study of Cold Weather Earthwork,Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, July 1976,Special Report 76-2. IlII( j 11 ij ;-\ I J !J 111..r !I lJ u u lJ Ij TABLE 16.1:SUMMARY OF COST ESTIMATE January 1982 Dollars $ X 106 Category Watana Devil Canyon Total Production Plant $1,986 $835 $2,821 Transmission Plant 391 91 482 General Plant 5 5 10 Indirect 378 188 566 Subtotal $2,760 $1,119 $3,879 Contingency 17.5~~482 196 678--- Total Construction $3,242 $1-+315 $4,557 Overhead Construction 405 165 570------ TOTAL PROJECT $3,647 $1,480 $5,127 P5700.00 P5700.14.09 OF __5 DATE _ DATE 2/82 JOB NUMBER FILE NUMBER SHEET----1 BY _ CHKD JRP Feasibility •JDL TYPE OF ESTI MATE APPROVED Bv ~~__ TABLE 16.2 WATANA I C-1IC-TnIA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT [ ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY PROJECT JUJ,!,11m II CLIENT ESTIMATE SUM~ARY • No.DESCRIPTIONI AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS (x 10 6)(x 106) PRODUCTION PLANT Land &Land Rights ••••••••••••••• Power plant Structures &Improvement~ $51 73 Reservoir,Dams &Waterways 1,532 33l 33~ Waterwheels,Turbines &Generators .1 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Accessory Electrical Equipment •••••~••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Miscellaneous Powerplant Equipment (i1-":"':IIi:III.1.l:d.l.J ••••••••••••••••••••••• Roads &Railroads ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 65 21 14 230 TOTAL PRODUCTION PLANT ••••••••••••$1,986 ~'_-_._- L--'L--L.-.L_-J --- --~ DESCRIPTION PROJECT ....u .....L "m ESTIMATE SUMMARY Bla No. CLIENT ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY TABLE 16.2 I JOB NUMBER P5700.00 WATANA FILE NUMBER P5700.14.09 TYPE OF ESTI MATE Feasibility-SHEET 2 OF -5 BY DATE APPROVED BY JDL JRP 2/82CHKDDATE AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS (x 10 6)(x 10 6 ) TOTAL TRANSMISSION PLANT ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••• 359 I Roads &Trails •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 354 I Steel Towers &Fixtures ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 353 I Substation &Switching Station Equipment •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $1,986 I $8 12 129 130 99 13 I $391 .................................................TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD TRANSMISSION PLANT 356 I Overhead Conductors &Devices ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 352 I Substation &Switching Station Structures &Improvements •••••••••••••• 350 I Land &Land Rights •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $2,377 P5700.00 P5700.14.09 OF __5 DATE __ DATE 2/82JRP JOB NUMBER FILE NUMBER ----'-..::....:....;:...;: SHEET__3 BY _ CHKD JDL _FeasibilityTYPEOFESTIMATe'_--=--===='-'-- APPROVED Bv -=~__ WATANA TABLE 16.2 AI ASKA POWEELllliIHOIUIY _.._~~...HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTPROJECT:JIm!II~tI HIUrsLJt.Lt.LpU Frs >It. CLIENT ESTIMATE SUMMARY I IIII No.DESCRIFJTION AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS (x 106 )(x 106 ) TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD INDIRECT COSTS $2,382 61 62 63 64 65 66 Temporary Construction Facilities • Construction Equipment Camp &Commissary ••••••••••••••••• Labor Expense ••••••••••••••••••••• Superintendence ••••••••••••••••••• Insurance •••••••••••••••••_•••••••• $ 378 See Note See Note See Note See Note 69 Fees ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••See Note Note: Costs under accounts 61,62,164,65, 66, and 69 are included in the appropri~te direct costs listed above. TOTAL INDIRECT COSTS $378 $2,760 ------.J L-1--L _L.-J ~-~'l '....1 ...I ,---' TABLE 16.2 JOB NUMBER P5700.00ESTIMATESUMMARYWATANAFILENUMBERP5700.14.09 III CLIENT ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY TYPE OF ESTI MATE Feasibility SHEET 4 OF 5- JDL BY DATE PROJECT SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT APPROVED BY JRP 2/82CHKDDATE No.DESCRIPTION AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS (x 10 6)(x 10 6) 71 72 75 76 77 80 TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD (Construction Costs)•••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Contingency 17.5~~••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COSTS ••••••••••••••••••••••,•••••••••••••••,••••••• OVERHEAD CONSTRUCTION COSTS (PROJECT INDIRECTS) Engineering/Administration •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••1 $ Legal Expenses •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Taxes ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Administrative &General Expenses ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Interest •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Earnings/Expenses During Construction ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Total Overhead •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• TOTAL PROJECT COST ••.•••••••••••.•..•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $2,760 482 $3,242 405 -I Included in 71 -Not applicable -. .Included in 71 -. .Not included -----J Not included 405 $3,647 ESTIMATE SUM~ARY P5700.00 P5700.14.09 OF __5 DATE _--:-__ DATE 2/82JRP BY --::-:-_ CHKD JOB NUMBER FILE NUMBER _ SHEET ~ JDL ...FeasibilityTYPEOFESTIMATI:"_--"'''':'':''-=-':':'--<-' APPROVED BY _ TABLE 16.2 WATANA I ~IKTTNA HYDROELECJRIC PROJECT ALASKA POWER AUTHbRITY PROJECT -.,... CLIENTiii] No.DESCRI~TION AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS (x 106)(x 10 6 ) TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD GENERAL PLANT $2,377 389 390 39,1 , 392 39'3 394 N5 Land &Land Rights Structures &Improvements ••••••••• Office Furniture/Equipment •••••••• Transportation Equipment •••••••••• Stores Equipment •••••••••••••••••• Tools Shop &Garage Equipment ••••• Laboratory Equipment ••••••••••••••i•••••• ••• ••• •• •••• •••••••••• •••••• •• Power-Operated Equipment Communications Equipment Miscellaneous Equipment $Included under 330 Included under 331 Included under 399 "" " " "" II II "" "" " " other Tangible Property 5 TOTAL GENERAL PLANT •••••••••••••••$5 $2,382 ----, _1__ r-; l-l- r-- l- ,---,L __'_1___1__,I ;!;-'--".--i :i .I .]---, ----.J .I :=J ---.J DATE --- DATE 2/82 P5700.14.09 OF 2. P5700.00 BY ------ CHKD JRP JOB NUMBER FILE NUMBER SHEET 1Feasibility ,JDLAPPROVEDBv~~_ TABLE 16.3 DEVIL CANYON TYPE OF ESTIMATE CIICTT..n HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY PROJECT ...u ......"m CLIENT ESTIMATE SUMMARY[Ii] No.DESCRIPTION AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS (x 10 6)(x 10 6) 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 PRODUCTION PLANT Land &Land Rights •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.1 $ Powerplant Structures &Improvements •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Reservoir,Dams &Waterways ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Waterwheels,Turbines &Generators •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Accessory Electrical Equipment •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Miscellaneous Powerplant Equipment (Mechanical)••••••••••••••••••••••• Roads &Railroads •••••••••••••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 22 71 635 42 14 12 39 TOTAL PRODUCTION PLANT ••••••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••$835 P5700.00 P5700.14.09 OF __5 DATE _---,-_ DATE 2/82JRP JOB NUMBER FILE NUMBER _ SHEET__2 By _ CHKD JDL ~Feasibility APPROVED BY __PROJECT ----",.. I ESTIMATE SUM~ARY CLIENT ALASKA POWER AUT~ORITY C:IIC:TTMLI HYDROELEOTRIC PROJECTIlllU No.DESCRI~TION AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD TRANSMISSION PLANT (x 106 )(x 106) $835 Land &Land Rights $Included in Watana Estimate Substation &Switching Station Str~ctures &Improvements •••••••••••••• Substation &Switching Station Equ~pment Steel Towers &Fixtures •••••••••• Overhead Conductors &Devices •••• 7 21 29 34 Roads &Trails •••••••••••••••••••Included in Watana Estimate TOTAL TRANSMISSION PLANT •••••••••$91 $926 >_1_-'--- ~'--I c:=J [- I..--~L...-._1_-~~!_~___I •I ~-~! 392 I Transportation Equipment •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 390 I Structu~es &Improvements ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 391 I Office Furniture/Equipment •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 393 I Stores Equipment •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 394 I Tools Shop &Garage Equipment ••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 395 I Laboratory Equipment •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Other Tangible Property ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• JOB NUMBER P5700.00 FILE NUMBER P5700.14.09 Feas.i.bi.Lit v _I SHEET 3 OF -5 BY DATE '1"'11 2/82CHKDJRPDATE TOTALS 1 REMARKS (x 10 6) $926 I Included under 330 Included under 331 Included under 399 "" "" "" "" "" " " "" 5 A PPROVED BY uv~ (x 106) AMOUNT $ TABLE 16.3 DEVIL CANYON TYPE OF ESTI MATE ._ (','('Tn,.HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY PROJECT ;;JU;;JJ.I "M I DESCRIPTION CLIENT ESTIMATE SUMMARY Miscellaneous Equipment Communications Equipment Land &Land Rights Power Operated Equipment TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD GENERAL PLANT 396 397 398 399 AlIa No. 389 TOTAL GENERAL PLANT ••••••••••••••••••••••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••$5 $931 Temporary Construction Facilities .i •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• JOB NUMBER P5700.00 FILE NUMBER P5700.14.09 Feas Ibi l Lt v _I SHEET 4 OF 5- lnl BY DATE CHKD JRP DATE 2/82 TOTALS I REMARKS-- (x 10 6) $931 I See Note See Note $ AMOUNT (x 10 6 ) APPROVED BY --- TABLE 16.3 DEVIL CANYON TYPE OF ESTIMATE .----- CIICTT.,A HYDROELEOTRIC PROJECTPROJECT-.JU-.JJ.''''' DESCRIIFION I ESTIMATE SUMIYIARY I i CLIENT ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY Construction Equipment TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD INDIRECT COSTS No. 1110 6 6, Camp &Commissary •••••••••••••••••'••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••188 Labor Expense •••••••••••••••••••••i ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••See Note 6~ 6f 6~ Super intendence •••••••••••••••••••'•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Insurance •••••••••••••••••••••••••1 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Fees ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••'•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• See Note See Note See Note Note:Costs under accounts 61,62,'64,65,66,and 69 are included in the appropriate direct costs listed above. TOTAL INDIRECT COSTS •••••••••••••$188 $1,119 '---'-'-'-' I . ~L.--.-J --~.:'__..J --~,.--~, '_.~.J DATE --- DATE 2/82 P5700.00 P5700.14.09 OF 2. JOB NUMBER FILE NUMBER ---'--"-'-'-- SHEET 2. BY ----- CHKD JRP Feasibility .JDLAPPROVEDBv-=~_ TABLE 16.3 DEVIL CANYON TYPE OF ESTI MATEALASKAPOWERAUTHORITY _.._~~...HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTPROJECTJlJJl!!VI nwn CLIENT ESTIMATE SUMMARY • No.DESCRIPTION AMOUNT TOTALS REMARKS (x 10 6 )(x 10 6) 71 72 75 76 77 80 TOTAL BROUGHT FORWARD (Construction Costs)•••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Contingency 17.5%••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COSTS •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• OVERHEAD CONSTRUCTION COSTS (PROJECT INDIRECTS) Engineering •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Legal Expenses ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Taxes •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Administrative &General Expenses •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Interest . Earnings/Expenses During Construction •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Total Overhead Costs ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• TOTAL PROJECT COST ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $1,119 196 1,315 $165 -I Included in 71 -Not Applicable -. .Included in 71 -Not Included -----J Not Included 165 $1,480 TABLE 16.4:MITIGATION MEASURES -SUMMARY OF COSTS INCORPORATED IN CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATES , 1 COSTS INCORPORATED IN CONSTRUCTION ESTIMATES Outlet Facilities Main Dam at Devil Canyon Tunnel Spillway at Watana Restoration of Borrow Area D Restoration of Borrow Area F Restoration of Camp and Village Restoration of Construction Sites Fencing around Camp Fencing around Garbage Disposal Area Multilevel Intake Structure Camp Facilities Associated with trying to Keep Workers out of Local Communities Restoration of Haul Roads SUBTOTAL Contingency 17.5% TOTAL CONSTRUCTION Engineering 12.5% TOTAL PROJECT WATAN~ $X 10 47,050 1,617 551 2,260 4,050 350 125 18,400 10,156 756 85,315 14,930 100,245 12,530 112,775 DEVIL C~NYON lLlQ._- 14,610 NA NA 990 2,016 217 125 NA 9,000 505 27,463 4,806 32,269 4,034 36,303 149,078 .J -J ) ,J r '---L __, L..---J ---' , ~----i ---' 4000 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I BOO CUMULATIVE CAS~FLOW~I ~ r. o~o,.~. ~~".iII111 ~su, :I:so.. (.) 700 '"II:.. ..J ..Jo5000 u,o 600 snzo :J ..J 400 i 300 200 100 I;:::::::::::::::::::::::~ ,c·T.~.I.lllllli'l..ttililiiIll·-: 500 3500 3000 ;;; II:.. ..J ..J 0 0 u,25000 '"zs ..J ..J 2; 2000 ~ 0 ..Ju, :I: '"..-o w 1500 >i=.. ..J ::J 2; ::Jo 1000 WATANA DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE AND ANNUAL CASH FLOW JANUARY,1982 DOLLARS 19B2 19B3 19B4 19B5 19B6 19B7 19BB 19B9 YEARS 1990 1991 f992 1993 1994 f995 1996 1997 FIGURE, 16.• 11 \J r-) (Slll11100 :10 SNOlllIW)M01:1 HSI10 l11nNNV IIIIB 11I11I1. '"0 0 '" '"0 0 '" ;; 0 '" 0 :t:0 0 0 '"...J I.L.t- O>Z:I: 0>IJJC/)C/) 0>:::E<t a::g,o <t ...J...J ...J 1JJ<t ...J <Xl >:::l 00>00>en ~za:Z C'Jc( w z<t to >-0 C1l....>-00> 0>zz .;<t<t a::0 <t ...J IJJ :::l '"->Z0>>-<t0>1JJ!;j:-:> O...J :::l '":::E :::l0>00> <t 0> 0> o o o .t11A1 oo '" oo '" !\ ooe- 1 J (1 l J u I 1 \.J (J u '":'.0> ~~~0> '"0> 0> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~s '"'" (Slll1110a :10 SN0I11IW)M01:1 HSVO 3111.l.I11nWnO f---- 1--_c=L_.L __L._.............·_,__1 l;__I ----'---~ 1:1·1.·.·I·jl.~I:~II:I~I.I·III·I.I·I:llll[I~I:IIIIII~~~1111[ljl·.~·I'!·I··I:i·:I.I·I:I·I·ljllll:I·ljlll.lll:IllIDEm Il.·III·I·I·I·I~I·~,·I·I!IIII~li.lllll·I.··III·I~I~·1.I~ 650 600 550 500 -rna: 450 <t .J .J 0 0 400 u, 0 rnz ~ .J 350 .Js ~ ~ 300 0 .J U. :I:rn <t 250 o .J <t ::0 Zz 200 <t 150 100 50 0 .......r--.>.> ••~ ~1~!~II!I!'!I!'!I!'!:!II!I!I~!I!~1111111 ·1·111.·II·I··li1~.·.ll~~11~1·111·11111·11111··lltm: brJi.lIl·I'I··I~III~II'III·III:ljl·I···lil·III~I!I:I:I!I~1·111 ~C~MULATIVE CA$FLO\\ ~1~~I~··~·~·~~~II~I·:·lll!·.·~·l·i.~" I.• ~::::::::::::::::: i·j~·!!!II:!~!II·[:II!li·!I~.!.il, 111.i·lji:I·I·I.111.1·1.·jl·I.I~I:I.II[ljljjjl~I:···:··1!1:.·lj~~::~~~I!:! .11~~···l~~I.j~~~·I·II~I·~~I·III.lli. 111!II·i·[·IIII·lllI··I···I!lj.I[:·!III~.·····~I:·~I~:!~1·1:1~·lill·..II·1r Ill.I.III:···~···I··I·I!II·ljl·I·'.'.I·II[II.III~I·I!''j.::'\ •.j·I:I·I·I·III.III':I.III·II~I··j!~~I··il·!jll!II!I!1!1!:!:!~!.!·!I·!·II...ljlll·I.I·lli·II~IIIII~I·I·II·· 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500-rna: <t .J .J 40000 0 u, 0 rn 3500z 0::::; .J :ij 3000 ~ 3u, :I:2500tn <to w>fi 2000 .J ::0 :0 ::0o 1500 1000 500 0 19B2 19B3 19B4 19B5 19B6 19B7 19BB 19B9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 199B 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 YEARS SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT CUMULATIVE a ANNUAL CASH FLOW ENTIRE PROJECT JANUARY t 1982 DOLLARS FIGURE 16.3 (.·.1J [J (1u u f ] lJ \ J 17 -DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULES This section describes the development schedules prepared for both Watana and Devil Canyon to meet the on-line power requirements of 1993 and 2002,respectively.These schedules span the period from 1983 unti 1 2004.Schedules for the development of both Watana and Devi 1 Canyon are shown on Plates 75 and 76.The main elements of the project have been shown on these schedules,as well as some key interrelation- ships. 17.1 -Preparation of Schedules Preliminary schedules were first developed by estimating the durations of the main construction activities and arranging these in logical se- quence.Some activity adjustments were then made to reduce excessive demands on resources,such as underground excavation or concrete plac- ing.The preliminary schedules were then used as a basis for the prep- aration of cost estimates.The schedules were also reviewed for over- all compatability with major constraints such as licensing,on-line power requirements,and reservoir filling. At both sites it became apparent that the period for construction of the main dam would be critical and that other activities should be fitted to the main dam work.A study was made of the front end requirements at Watana,and it was concluded that a pioneer road would have to be completed before 1985 to permit a sufficiently rapid build- up of manpower and equipment after licensing to meet the construction requirements for the main dam. During development of the final project arrangement and preparation of the cost estimates (Section 16),the preliminary schedules were modi- fied and refined.As estimating data were developed, the production rates and construction durations were calculated.Networks were developed for the main construction activities and the durations and sequences of activities determined.The overall schedules were modified to suit. 17.2 -Watana Schedul e The Watana schedules were developed to meet two overall project con- strai nts: -FERC license would be issued by December 31, 1984;and - Four units would be on-line by the end of 1993. The critical path of activities to meet the overall constraints was determined to be through site access,site facilities,diversion and main dam construction.These are highlighted as follows: 17-1 (i)Access Road access to slte is requlred by January 1, 1985. A ploneer road from Gold Creek lS requlred to moblllze labor,equipment, and materlals ln the flrst part of 1985 for the following major constructlon activities: -Main access road/rallhead; -Slte facilitles; -Diversion;and -Mal n dam. (il)Slte Facllltles Slte facilltles must be developed ln a very short time to sup- port the ma in constructlon activities.A camp to house more than 1,000 men must be constructed during the flrst year.Site constructlon roads and contractors'work area have to be start- ed.An aggregate processlng plant and concrete batching plant must be operatlonal to start diversion tunnel concrete work by January 1986.Constructlon power supply must also be started'ln 1985 for completlon by mld-1987.One clrcult of the permanent transmission line should be built from the proposed intertle at Gold Creek to Watana. (ill)Diversion Construction of diverslon and dewaterlng faclllties,the first major act ivi t y,should start by mLd-1985.Excavation of the portals and tunnels requlres a concentrated effort to allow completion of the lower tunnel for river ~iverslon by August 1986.The upper tunnel i s needed to handle the spring runoff by 1987.The upstream cofferdam must be placed to divert rlverflows i n August 1986 and raised sufflclently to avoid overtopping by the followlng sprlng. (iv)Maln Dam ····Theprogress of work -in the main dam is er-l-t-l-e a1 throughout··the peri od 1986 through 1992.Mobil izat 1on of equi pment and start of site work must begln in 1985. Excavatlon on the right abut- ment proceeds ln 1986, as well as rlver alluvium under the dam core.During 1987 and 1988,dewatering,excavatlon and founda- t i on treatment must be completed i n the riverbed area and a substantlal start made on placlng f i ll,The construction schedule lS based on the followlng program: 17-2 [J Acc umu 1ated Quant itt¥Quantity Year (cy x 10 ) (cy x 10 6) 1987 3 1988 6 9 1989 12 21 1990 13 34 1991 13 47 1992 12 59 1993 3 62 Fi 11 Elevation October 15 (feet) 1660 1810 1950 2130 2210 Reservoir Elevation (feet) 1460 1865 2050 2185 f] \ f1\J (v) The program for fill placing has been based on an average six months season.It has been developed to provide high utiliza- tion of construction equipment required to handle and process fill materia 1s. Spillways and Intakes These structures have been scheduled for completion one season in advance of the requirement to handle flows.In general, excavation for these structures does not have to begin until most of the excavation work has been completed for the main dam. (vi)Powerhouse and Other Underground Works The first four units are scheduled to be on line by late 1993 and the remaining two units in early 1994. Excavation of the access tunnel into the powerhouse complex has been scheduled to start in 1987. Stage I concrete begins in 1989 wi th start of installation of major mechanical and electrical work in 1991. In general,the underground works have been scheduled to level resource demands as much .as possible. r IU (vi 1)Transmission Lines/Switchyards An initial line from Gold Creek is scheduled for completion by mi d-1987.Construct i on of the remai n i ng 1i nes has been sched- uled to begin in 1989 and be completed before commissioning of the fi rst uni t. (J i 1I'U (vi i 1)General The Watana schedule requires that extensive planning,bid sel- ection and commitments are made before the end of 1984 to per- mit work to progress on schedule during 1985 and 1986.The rapid development of site activities requires commitments par- ticularly in the areas of access and site facilities in order that construction operations have the needed support. 17-3 17-4 Excavation of access into the powerhouse cavern is scheduled to begin in 1996. Stage I concrete begins in 1998 with start of installation of major mechanical and electrical work in 2000. The spillway and intake are scheduled for completion by the end of 2000 to permit reservoir filling the next year. (vi)Powerhouse and Other Underground Works I 1 1 ~:.l "J } '~1 ) 1 1 1 j J 1 ) I 1 ·1 I schedule was developed to meet the on-line power four units in 2002.The critical path of activities follow through site facilities,diversion and mai n It has been planned that site facilities should the main construction activities starting in 1995. Arch Dam Spillways and Intake Excavation and concreting of the single diversion tunnel should begin in 1995. River closure and cofferdam construction will take place to permit start of dam construction in 1997. The construction of the arch dam will be the most critical con- struction activity from start of excavation in 1996 until top- pi ng out in 2001.The concrete prograrrihas been based on an "average 8=m6nlhpl at ings-eason-fm"---4-;;;112~ye-ar"s-=~-rh-e-workhas been scheduled to maintain a fairly constant effort during this period to make best use of equipment and manpower. (v) (i v) It has been assumed that site access facilities built for Watana exist at the start of construction.The bridge crossing upstream of Devil Canyon will be replaced by a temporary cross- ing downstream when reservoir impoundment takes place,and will finally be across the completed dam. (ii)Site Facilities Camp facilities should be started in 1994.It has been assumed that buildings can be salvaged from Watana.Site roads and power could also be started at this time. (ft t)Diversion (i)Access The Devi 1 Canyon requirement of all was determi ned to dam construction. start in 1994 with The schedule has also been developed to take advantage of pos- sible early reservoir filling to the minimum operating level by October 1992.Should this occur,power could possibly be generated by the end of 1992. 17.3 - Devil Canyon Schedule (1 ( J .() I \(J lJ !J (vii)Transmission Lines/Switchyards The additional transmission facilities needed for Devil Canyon have been scheduled for completion by the time the final unit is ready for commissioning in late 2001. (vi i i )General The development of site facilities at Devil Canyon begins slow- ly in 1994 with a rapid acceleration in 1995 through 1997. Within a short period of time,construction begins on most major civil structures.This rapid development is dependent on the provision of support site facilities which should be com- pleted in advance of the main construction work. 17-5 II [I (J 18 -ECONOMIC,MARKETING AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION 18.1 -Economic Evaluation This section provides a discussion of the key economic parameters used in the study and develops the net economic benefits stemming from the Susitna Hydroelectric Project.Section 18.1 (a)deals with those eco- nomic principles relevant to the analysis of net economic benefits and develops inflation and discount rates and the Alaskan opportunity val- ues (shadow prices)of oil,natural gas and coal.In particular the analysis is focused on the longer-term prospects for coal markets and prices.This follows from the evaluation that in the absence of Susitna,the next best thermal generation plan would rely on exploita- tion of Alaskan coal.The future coal price is therefore considered in detail to provide rigorous estimates of prices in the most likely al- ternative markets and hence the market price of coal at the mine-head within the state. Section 18.1 (c)presents the net economic benefits of the proposed hydroelectric power investments compared with this thermal alternative. These are measured in terms of present valued differences between bene- fits and costs.Recognizing that even the most careful estimates will be surrounded by a degree of uncertainty,the benefit-cost assessments are also carried out in a probabil istic framework as shown in Section 18.2.The analysis therefore provides both a most likely estimate of net economic benefits accruing to the state and a range of net economic benefits that can be expected with a 1ikel ihood (confidence level)of 95 percent or more. (a)Economic Principles and Parameters I ) \J 'iU u ( i )tconomic Principles -Concept of Net Economic Benefits A necessary condition for maximizing the increase in state income and economic growth is the selection of public or private investments with the highest present val ued net benefits to the state.In the context of Al askan electric power investments,the net benefits are defined as the dif- ference between the costs of optimal Susitna-inclusive and Susitna-exclusive (all thermal)generation plans. The energy costs of power generation are initially measured in terms of opportunity values or shadow prices which may differ from accounting or market prices currently prevail- ing in the state.The concept and use of opportunity val- ues is fundamental to the opt imal allocat ion of scarce re- sources.Energy investment decisions should not be made solely on the basis of accounting prices in the state if the internat iona1 value of traded energy commod it ies such as coal and gas diverge from local market prices. 18-1 The choice of a time horizon is also crucial.If a short- term planning period is selected,the investment rankings and choices will differ markedly from those obtained through a long-term perspective.In other words,the benet i t-co st analysis would point to different generation expansion plans depending on the selected planning period. A short-run optimization of state income WOuld,at best, allow only a moderate growth in fixed capital investment; at worst,it would lead to under investment in not only the energy sector but also in other infrastructure facilities such as roads,airports,hospitals,schools,and communica- tions. It therefore follows that the Sus itna Project,as other Alaskan investments,should be appraised on the basis of long-run optimization,where the long-run is defined as the expected economic 1 ife of the facil ity.For hydroelectric projects,this service life is typically 50 years or more. The costs of a Susitna-inclusive generation plan have therefore been compared with the costs of the next-best al- ternative which is the all-thermal generation plan -and assessed over a pl anning period extending from 1982 to 2040,using internally consistent sets of economic scenar- ios and appropriate opportunity values of Alaskan energy. Throughout the analysis,all costs and prices are expressed in real (inflation-adjusted)terms using January 19~2 dol- l ars. Hence,the results of the economic calc;ul ations are not sensitive to modified assumptions.concerning the rates of general price inflation.In contrast,the financial and market analyses,conducted in nominal (inflation-inclusive) terms,will be influenced by the rate of general price in- flation from 1982 to 2051. (ii)Price Inflation and Discount Rates General Price Inflation Despite the fact that price levels are generally higher in Alaska than in the Lower 48,there is little differ- ence in the comparative rates 'of price changes;i.e., price inflation.Between 1970 and 1978,for example,the U.S. and Anchorage consumer price indexes rose at annual rates of 6.9 and 7.1 percent,respectively.From 1977 to 1978,the differential was even smaller:the consumer pr ices increased by 8.8 percent and 8.7 percent in the U.S.and Anchorage (1). Forecasts of Al askan prices extend only to 1986 (2). These indicates an average rate of intrease of 8.7 per- cent from 1980 to 1986.For the longer period between j 1 j I J J 'J l I 'j ) j >/ .,j I 1 j f 1 (1 I] I] [] r 1,1 [J [J ! \I •U u IJ 1986 and 2010,it is assumed that Al askan prices wi 11 es- calate at the overall U.S.rate,or at 5 to 7 percent compounded annually.The average annual rate of price i nfl at ion is therefore about 7 percent between 191)2 and 2010.As this ..is consistent with long-term forecasts of the CPI advanced by leading economic consulting organiza- t ions,7 percent has been adopted as the study val ue (3,4). -Discount Rates Discount rates are required to compare and aggregate cash flows occurring in different time periods of the planning horizon.In essence,the discount rate is a weighting factor reflecting that a dollar received tomorrow is worth less than,a doll ar received today.This holds even in an inflation-free economy as long as the productivity of capital is positive.In other words,the value of a dollar received in the future must be deflated to reflect its earn ing power foregone by not receiv inq it today. The use of discount rate's extends to both real dollar (economic)and escalated dollar (financial)evaluations, with corresponding inflation-adjusted (real)and inflation-inclusive (nominal)values. Real Discount and Interest Rates Severa 1 approaches have been suggested for est imat ing the real discount rate appl icable to publ ic projects (or to private projects from the publ ic perspective). Three common alternatives include:. the social opportunity cost (SOC)rate; the social time preference (STP)rate;and the government's real borrowing rate or the real cost of debt capital (5,6,7). The SOC rate measures the real social return (before taxes and subsidies)that capital funds could earn in alternative investments.If,for example,the marginal capital investment in Alaska has an estimated social yield of X percent,the Susitna Hydroelectric Project should be appraised using the X percent measure of "foregone returns"or opportunity costs.A shortcoming for this concept is the difficulty inherent in deter- mining the nature and yeilds of the foregone invest- ments. The STP rate measures society's preferences for allo- cating resources between investment and consumption. This approach is also fraught with practical measure- ment difficulties since a wide range of STP rates may 18-3 be inferred from market interest rates and socially- desirable rates of investment. A sub-set of STP rates used in project evaluations is the owner's real cost of borrowing;that is,the real cost of debt capital.This industrial or government borrowing rate may be read i ly measured and provides a starting point for determining project-specific dis- count rates.For example,long-term industrial bond rates have averaged about 2 to 3 percent in the U.S.in real (inflation-adjusted)terms (3,8).Forecasts of real interest rates show average values of about 3 per- cent and 2 percent in the periods of 1985 to 1990 and 1990 to 2000,respectively.The U.S.Nuclear Regula- tory Commission has also analyzed the choice of dis- count rates for investment appraisal in the electric ut i 1 ity industry and has recommended a 3 percent real rate (24).Therefore,a real rate of 3 percent has been adopted as the base case discount and interest rate for the period 1982 to 2040. Nominal Discount and Interest Rates The nominal discount and interest rates are derived from the real values and the anticipated rate of gen- eral price inflation.Given a 3 percent real discount rate and a 7 percent rate of price inflation,the nomi- nal discount rate is determined as 10.2 percent or about 10 percent*. (i i i)0 il and Gas Prices -Oil Prices In the base period (January 1982),the Al askan 1982 dollar price of No.2 fuel oil is estimated at $6.50/ MMBtu. Long-term trends in oil prices will be infl uenced by events that are economic,pol itical and technological in nature,and are therefore estimated within a probabil is- tic fr amework. As shown in Table 18.1,the base case (most 1ikely es- calation rate)is estimated to be 2 percent to 2000'and 1 percent from 2000 to 2040.To be consistent with * (1 +the nominal rate)=(1 +the real rate)x (1 +the inflation rate)=1.03 x 1.07,or 1.102 1 ) l I 1 l I .J J ) I .( I l .1 [1 U 1 Battelle forecasts,a 2 percent rate was used throughout the OGP planning period 1982 to 2010 and 0 percent there- after.In the low and high scenarios the growth rates were estimated at 0 percent from 1982-2051,and at 4 per- cent to 2000, and 2 percent beyond 2000,respectively. These projections are also consistent with those recently advanced by such organizations as ORI (9),World Hank (LO}, U.S.DOE (LL),and Canadian National Energy Bo aro (l2). - Gas Prices Al askan gas prices have been forecast using both export opportunity values (netting back elF prices from Japan to Cook Inlet)and domestic market prices as likely to be faced in the future by Alaskan electric utilities.The OGP analysis used market prices as estimated by tlattelle, since there are indications that Cook Inlet reserves may remain insufficient to serve new export markets. Uomestic Market Prices Table 18.2 depicts the low,medium and high domestic market prices used in the OGP5 analysis.In the medium (most likely)case,prices escalate at real rates of 2.5 percent from 1982 to 200U and 2 percent beyond 2000. In the low case,there is zero escalation and in the high case,gas prices grow at 4 percent 1982 to 2000 and 2 percent beyond 2000. .Export Opportunity Values Table 18.2 also shows the current and projected oppor- tunity value of Cook Inlet gas in a scenario where the Japanese export market for LNG continues to be the al- ternative to domestic demand.From a base period plant gate price of $4.69 MMBtu (CIF Japan),low,medium and high price escalation rates have been estimated for the interval s 1982 to 2000 and 2000 to 2040.The cost of 1 iquefaction and shipping (assumed to be constant in real terms)was subtracted from the escalated CIF prices to derive the Cook Inlet plant-gate prices and their growth rates.These Alaskan opportunity values are proj ected to esc alate at 2.7 percent and 1.2 per- cent in the medium (most likely)case.Note that the export opportunity values consistently exceed the domestic prices.In the year 2000,for example,the opportunity value is nearly double the domestic price estimated by tlattelle. 18-5 (iv)Coal Prices The shadow price or opportunity value of Beluga and Healy coal is the delivered price in alternative markets less the cost of transportation to those markets.The most likely alternative demand for thermal coal is the East Asian market,principally Japan,South Korea,and Taiwan.The development of 60-year forecasts of coal prices in these markets is conditional on the procurement po l tc ies i of the importing nations.These factors,in turn,are influenced to a large extent by the price movements of crude oil. -Historical Trends Examination of historical coal price trends reveals that FOB and CIF prices have escalated at annual real rates of 1.5 percent to 6.3 percent as shown below: .Coal prices (bituminous,export unit value,FOB U.S. ports)grew at real annual rates of 1.5 percent (1950 to 1979)and 2.8 percent (1972 to 1979)(11). In Alaska, the price of thermal coal sold to the GVEA utility advanced at real rates of 2.2 percent (1965 to 1978)and 2.3 percent (1970 to 1978). In Japan, the average CIF prices of steam coal experi- enced real escalation rates of 6.3 percent per year in the period 1977 to 1981 (20,21).TlifiS represents an increase in the average price from approximately $35.22 per metric ton (mt)in 1977 to about $76.63/mt in 1981. As shown below, export prices of coal are highly correl- ated with oil prices,and an analysis of production costs has not predicted accurately the level of coal prices. Even if the production cost forecast itself is accurate, it wi 11 estab 1ish a min imum coal pr ice,rather than the ..mar-.ketcleadng--.:pl"ice set.b",-both-suppJ~..and~.demand con,., ditions. In real terms export prices of U.S. coal showed a 94 percent and 92 percent correlation with oil prices (1950 to 1979 and 1972 to 1979).* . Supply function (production cost)analysis,has esti- mated Canadian coal at a price of $23.70 (1980 U.S. * Analysis is based on data from the World Bank. } 1 l ~l l l "I -,j J I l i l I l ~~f l 1 I [1 \ I r 1.../ $/ton)for S.E.British Columbia (B.C.)coking coal, FOB Roberts Bank,B.C.,Canada (18,23).In fact, Kaiser Resources (now B.C.Coal Ltd.)has signed agree- ments with .Japan at an FOB Price of about $47.5u (198U U.S.$/ton)(19).This is 1UO percent more than the price estimate based on production costs. The same comparison for Canadian B.C.thermal coal in- dicates that the expected price of $5ti.OU (19~1 Canadian ~)per MT (2200 pounds) or about $37.0U (19~0 U.S.$)per ton woul d be 60 percent above est imates founded on production costs (18,19,23). In longer-term coal export contracts,there has been provision for reviewing the base price (regardless of escalation clauses)if significant developments occur in pricing or markets.That is,prices may respond to market conditions even before the expiration of the contract .** Energy-importing nations in Asia,especially Japan, have a stated pol icy of diversified procurement for their coal supplies.They will not buy only from the lowest-cost suppl ier (as would be the case in a per- fectly compet it ive model of coal trade)but instead will pay a risk premium to ensure security of supply (see Battelle 18,23). -Survey of Forecasts Data Resources Incorporated is projecting an average annual real growth rate of 2.6 percent for U.S.coal prices in the period 1981 to 20UO (9).The World Bank has forecast that the real price of steam coal would advance at approximately the same rate as oil prices (3 percent/a)in the period 1980 to 1990 (10).Canadian Resourcecon Limited has recently forecast growth rates of 2 percent to 4 percent (19~0 to 2010)for subbituminous and bituminous steam coal (22). -Opportunity Value of Alaskan Coal Delivered Prices,CIF Japan Based on these consideration,the shadow price of coal (CIF price in Japan)was forecast using conditional **Th is clause forms part of the recently cone 1uded agreement between Denison Mines and Teck Corporation and Japanese steel makers. 18-7 probabilities glven low,medlum,and hlgh 011 pr i ce scenarios.Table 18.3 deplcts the estlmated coal price growth rates and thelr assoclated probabllitles,glven the three sets of 011 pr i ces.Comb i ni ng these proba- b i l i t les wlth those attached to the 011 pr i ce cases ylelds the followlng coal prlce scenarlos,CIF Japan. Scenari 0 Probabi 1ity Real Prlce Growth Medlum 49 percent 2 percent (1982-2000) (mo st 1ike 1y)1 percent (2000-2040) Low 24 percent 0 percent (1982-2040) High 27 percent 4 percent (1982-2000) 2 percent (2000-2040) The 1982 base per i od price was i nl t i al ly estlmated us i nq the data from the Battelle Beluga Market Study (18).Based on th i s study,a sample of 1980 spot prices (averaging $1.66/MMBtu)w~s escalated to January 1982 to prov i de a startlng value of $1.95/MMBtu in January 1982 dollars.* As more recent and more complete coal lmport prlce sta- tlstlcs became avallable,thls extrapolatlon of the 19 sample was found to glve a slgnificant underestlmate of actual CIF pr ices ,By late 1981,Japan's average lm- port price of steam coal reached $2.96/MMBtu.**An lm~ portant sens t t i vi t y case was therefore developed re- flectlng these updated actual CIF pr i ces .The updated base perlod value of $2.96 was reduced by 10 percent to $2.66 to recognize the prlce dlscount dlctated by qual- ity differentlals between Alaskan coal and other sour- ces of Japanese coal imports,as estimated by Battelle (18) . Tables 18.2 and 18.3 111 ustrate the range of recent CIF and FOB pr i ces of steam coal imports to Japan. *The escalatlon factor was 1.03 x 1.14,where 3 percent is the fore- cast real growth i n prices (mld-1980 to January 1982)at an annual rate of 2 percent,and 14 percent lS the 18-month increase if the CPI is used to convert from mld-1980 dollars to January 1982 dollars. **As reported by Coal Week Internatlonal ln October 1981,the average CIF value of steam coal was $75.50 per MT.At an average heat value of 11,500 Btu/lb,this lS equivalent to $2.96/MBtu. \ .\ j I l ~...~J I J I l i ( I l Jj I I 1 [1 f] II u u Opportunity Values in Alaska Base Case -Battelle-based CIF Prices, No Export Potential for Healy Coal Transportation costs of $0.52/MMBtu were subtracted from the initially estimated CIF price of $1.95 to determine the opportunity value of Beluga coal at Anchorage.In January 1982 dollars,this base period net-back price is therefore $1.43.In subse- quent years,the opportunity value is derived as the difference between the escalated CIF price and the transport cost (est imated to be constant in real terms).The real growth rate in these FOB prices is determined residually from the forecast opportunity values.In the medium (most likely)case,the Beluga opportunity values escalate at annual rates of 2.6 percent and 1.2 percent during the intervals 1982 to 2000 and 2000 to 2040,respectively. For Healy coal,it was est imat eo that the base period price of $1.75/MI~Btu (at Healy)would also escalate at 2.6 percent (to 2000)and 1.2 percent (2000 to 2040).Adding the escalated cost of trans- portation from Healy to Nenana results in a January 1~82 price of $1.75/MMBtu.*In subsequent years, the cost of transportation of Which 30 percent is represented by fuel cost (which escalates at 2 per- cent)is added to the Healy price resulting in Nenana prices that grow at real rates of 2.3 percent (1982 to 2000)and 1.1 percent (2000 to 2040). Table 18.3 summarizes the real escalation rates ap- plicable to Nenana and Beluga coal in the low, medium, and high price scenarios. Sensitivity Case -Updated CIF Prices, Export Potential for Healy Coal The updated CIF price of steam coal ($2.66/MMBtu after adjusting for quality differentials)was re- duced by shipping costs from Healy and Beluga to Japan to yield Alaskan opportunity values.In January 1982,prices are $2.08 and $1.74 at Anchorage and Nenana,respectively.The differences between escalated CIF prices and shipping costs re- sult in FOB prices that have real growth rates of *Transportation costs are based on Battelle (18,23). 18-9 (b)Analysis of Net Economic Benefits 2.5 percent and 1.2 percent for Beluga coal and 2.7 percent and 1.2 percent for Healy coal (at Nenana). Table 18.3 shows escalation rates for the opportun- ity value of Alaskan coal in the low,medium,and high price scenarios,using updated base period values. } 1 1 t 1 ~ ~ 1 ..~ I l l I I l ~l' I I Modeling Approach Using the economic parameters discussed in the previous section and data relating to the electrical energy genera- tion alternatives available for the Ra i lbel t ,an analysis was made comparing the costs of electrical energy produc- t ion with and without the Sus itna project.The primary foo-r for ffieanalysTs ·was-agenerarfbnpraniling ·m6del (OGP5)which simulates production costs over a planning period extending from 19B2 to 2010. The method of compar ing the "with"and "without"Sus itna alternative generation scenarios is based on the long-term present worth (PW)or total system costs.The planning model determines the total production costs of alternative plans on a year-by-year basis.These total costs for the period of modeling include all costs of fuel and operation and maintenance (O&lvJ)for all generating units included as part of the system,and the annualized investment costs of any generating and system transmission plants added during the period of 1993 to 2010.Factors which contribute to (i) (v)Generation Planning Analysis -Hase Case Study Values Based on the considerations presented in Sections (i) through (iv)above, a consistent set of fuel prices was assembled for the base case pr-ob atril i s t ic generation plan- ning (OGP5)analysis,as shown in Table 18.4.The study values include probabilities for the low,medium and high fuel price scenarios.The probabilities are common for the three fuels (oil,gas and coal)within each scenario in order to keep the number of generation planning runs to manageable size.In the case of the natural gas prices, domestic market prices were selected for the base case analysis with the export opportunity values used in sensitivity runs.The base period value of $3 was derived by deflating the 1996 Battelle prices to 19B2 by 2.5 percent per year.Coal prices were also selected from the base case using Battelle's 1980 sample of prices as the starting point,with the updated CIF prices of coal reserved for sensitivity runs.Oil prices 'have been escalated by 2 percent (1982 to 2040). I) I I i-l f1.J [) II II,./ I] \J IJ I I IJ (1LJ IJ I 1IJ the ultimate consumer cost of power but which are not in- cluded as input to this model are investment costs for all generation plants in service prior to 19Y3 investment,cost of the transmission and distribution facilities already in service,and administrative costs of utilities.These costs are common to all scenarios and therefore have been omitted from the study. In order to aggregate and compare costs on a significantly long-term basis,annual costs have been aggregated for the period of 1993 to 2051.Costs have been computed as the sum of two components and converted to a 1982 PW.The first component is the 1982 PW of cost output from the first 18 years of model simul ation from 1993 to 2010.The second component is the est imated PW of long-term system costs from 2011 to 2051. For an assumed set of economic parameters on a particul ar generation alternative,the first element of the PW_value represents the amount of cash (not including those costs noted above) needed in 1982 to meet electrical production needs in the Railbelt for the period 1993 to 2010.The second element of the aggregated PW value is the long-term (2011 to 2051)PW estimate of production costs.In consid- ering the value to the system of the addition of a hydro- electric power pl ant,which has a useful 1 ife of approxi- mately 50 years,the shorter study period would be inade- quate.A hydroelectric plant added in 1993 or 2002 would accrue PW benefits for only 17 or 9 years,respectively, using an investment horizon that extends to 201U.However, to model the system for an additional 40 years it would be necessary to develop future load forecasts and generation alternatives which are beyond the realm of any prudent pro- jections.For this reason,it has been assumed that the production costs for the final study year l20lU) would simply reoccur for an additional 41 years,and the PW of these was added to the 18-year PW (19%to 2010)to estab- lish the long-term cost differences between alternative methods of power generation. (ii)i)ase Case Analysis -Pattern of Investments IIWith ll and IIWithout ll Susitna The base case comparison of the "wi tn"and "wf thout" Susitna plans is based on an assessment of the PW produc- tion costs as outlined in 18 (c)(i)for the period 1993 to 2051,using mid-range values for the energy demand and load forecast,fuel prices,fuel price escalation rates, capital costs,and capital cost escalation rates.Load forec asts,fuel pr ices and construct ion costs are 18-11 analyzed in Sections 5,18.1 (b) and 16,respectively. As discussed in Section 18.1 (b),a real interest and discount rate of 3 percent is used. The with-Susitna plan calls for 680 MW of generating ca- pacity at Watana to be available to the system in 1993. Although the project may come on-line in stages during that year,for model ing purposes full-load generating capability is assumed to be available for the entire year.The second stage of Sus itna,the Dev il Canyon project,is scheduled to come on-line in 2002.The opti- mum timing for the addition of Devil Canyon was tested for earlier and later dates.Addition in the year 2002 was found to result in the lowest long-term cost.Devil Canyon will have 600 MW of installed capacity. The without-Susitna plan is discussed in Section 6.7.It includes 3200 MW coal-fired plants added at Beluga in 1993,1994,and 2007.A 200 MW unit is added at Nenana in 1996.In addition,nine 70 jVjW gas-fired combustion turbines (GTs)are added during the 1997 to 2010 period. -Base Case Net Economic Benefits The economic comparison of these plans is shown in Table 18.5.During the 1993 to 2010 study period,the 1982 PW cost for the Susitna plan is $3.119 million.The annual production cost in 2010 is $0.385 billion.The PW of this level cost,which remains virtually constant for a per ion extending to the end of the life of the Devil Canyon plant (2051),is $3.943 billion.The resulting total cost of the with-Susitna plan is $7.06 billion in 1982 dollars,presently valued to 19~2. The non-Susitna plan which was modeled has a 1982 PW cost of $3.213 b ill ion for the 1993 to 2010 per iods with a 2010 annual cost of $0.491 bill ion.The total long-term cost has a PW of $8.24 billion.erefore,the net eco- .fj·5mTc 5erleriT··of·aao-plTn~rlhe-··Susrt na ·pTan -is··$T:T8·on:· lion.In other words,the present valued cost difference between the Susitna pl an and the expansion pl an based on thermal plant addition is $1.18 billion in 1982 dollars. This is equivalent to a 1982 per capita net economic benefit of $2,700 per capita for the 1982 population of the State of Alaska.Expressed in 1993 dollars (at the on-l ine date of Watana) ,the net benefits would have a levelized value of $2.48 billion.* *$1.18 billion times 2.105,where 2.105 is the general price inflation index for the period 1982 to 1993. I j f~l u !J iJ It is noted that the magni tude of net economi c benefi ts ($1.18 billion)is not particularly sensitive to alterna- tive assumptions concerning the overall rate of price in- flation as measured by the CPI. The analysis has been carried out in real (inflation-adjusted)terms.There- fore,the present valued cost savings wi 11 remain close to $1.18 billion regardless of CPI movements, as long as the real (inflation-adjusted)discount and interest rates are maintained at 3 percent. The Susitna project's internal rate of return (IRR), i.e.,the real (inflation-adjusted)discount rate at which the with-Susitna plan has zero net economic bene- fits,or the discount rate at whi ch the costs of the with-Susitna and the "alternate"plans have equal costs, has also been determined.The IRR is about 4.1 percent in real terms,and 11.4 percent in nominal (inflation- inclusive)terms.Therefore,the investment in Susitna would significantly exceed the 5 percent nominal rate of return "test"proposed by the State of Al aska in cases where state appropriations may be involved.* It is emphasized that these net economic benefits and the rate of return stemming from the Susitna project are in- herent ly conservat ive estimates due to several assump- tions made in the OGP5 analysis. Zero Growth in Long-term Costs From 2010 to 2051,the OGP5 analysi s assumed constant annual production costs in both the Susitna and non- Susitna plans.This has the effect of excluding real esca 1at ion in fuel pri ces and the capital costs of therma 1 plant replacements,and thereby understating the long-term PW costs of thermal generation plans. Loss of Load Probabilities The loss of load probability in the non-Susitna plan is calculated at 0.099 in the year 2010.This means that the system in 2010 is on the verge of adding an addi- tional plant,and would do so in 2011. These costs are, however, not included in the analysis,which is cut off at 2010.On the other hand,the Susitna pl an has a loss of load probability of 0.025,and may not require additional capacity for several years beyond 2010. * See State of Alaska's SB-25,Section 44.83.670. 18-13 .Long-term Energy From Susitna Some of the Susitna energy output (about 350 GWh)is st ill not used by 2010.Th is energy output would be available to meet future increases in projected demand in the summer months.No benefit is attributed to this energy in the analysis. Equal Environmental Costs The OGP5 analysis has implicitly assumed equal environ- mental costs for both the Susitna and the non-Susitna plans.To the extent that the thermal generation ex- pansion plan is expected to carry greater environmental costs than the Susitna plan,the economic cost savings from the Susitna project are understated.It is con- ceivable that these so-called negative externalities from coal-fired electricity generation will have been mitigated by 1993 and beyond as a result of the enact- ment of new environmental legislation.However,such government action would simply internal ize the ex ter- nality by forcing up the production and market costs of thermal power. (iii)Sensitivity Analysis Rather than rely on a single point comparison to assess the net benefit of the Susitna project,a sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify the impa(t of modified assump- tions on the results.The analysis was directed at the following variables: - Load forecast; - Real interest and discount rate; -Construction period; -Period of analysis; -Capital costs; . Sus itna erm ves -O&M costs; Base period fuel price; - Real escalation in capital costs,U&M costs,and fuel pr ices; -System reliability;and Chackachamna. Tables 18.6 to 18.14 depict the results of the sensitivity analysis.In particular,Table 18.14 summarizes the net economic benefits of the Sus itna Project assoc i ated with each sensitivity test.The net benefits have been compared 1 J J 1 1 j [ '1I) [] r I1...__1 u IJ J using indexes relative to the base case value ($1.176 billion)which is set to 100. The greatest variability in results occurs in sensitivity tests pertaining to fuel escalation rates,discount rates, and base period coal prices.For example,a scenario with high fuel price escalation results in net benefits that have a value of 253 relative to the base case.In other words,the high case provides 253 percent of the base case net benefits.In general,the Susitna plan maintains its positive net benefits over a reasonably wide range of values assigned to the key variables. A multivariate analysis in the form of probability trees has been undertaken to test the joint effects of varying several assumptions in combination rather than individual- ly.This probabilistic analysis reported in Section 18.2 provides a range of expected net economic benefits and probability distributions that identify the chance~of ex- ceeding particular values of net benefits at given levels of confidence. 18.2 -Probability Assessment and Risk Analysis (a)Introduction to Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis The feasibil ity study of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project in- cluded an economic analysis based on a comparison of generation system product ion costs with and without the proposed project using a computerized model of the Railbelt generation system.In order to carry out this analysis,numerous projections and fore- casts of future conditions were made.These forecasts of uncer- tain conditions include future electrical demand,costs,and esca- lation.In order to address these uncertain conditions,a sensi- tivity analysis on key factors was carried out.This analysis focused on the variance of each of a number of forecast conditions and determined the impact of variance on the economic feasibility of the project.Each factor was variea singularly with all other variables held constant to determine clearly its importance. The purpose of this multivariable analysis was to select the most critical and sensitive variables in the economic analysis and to test the economic feasibility of the Susitna Project in each pos- sible combination of the selected variables. While a number of variables were identified and tested in the single variable sensitivity analysis for the Susitna economic feasibility study,the variables which were chosen for the multi- variate sensitivity analysis represent the key issues such as load forecasts,capital cost of alternatives,fuel escalation and Susitna capital cost. 18-15 The methodology for the multivariate analysis was implemented by constructing probability trees of future conditions for the Alaska Railbelt electrical system,with and without the Susitna Project. Each branching of the tree represents three values for a given variable.These were assigned a high,medium,and low value as well as a corresponding probability of occurrence.The three values represent the expected range and mid-point for a given variable.In some cases,the mid-point represents the most likely value which would be expected to occur.End limbs of the proba- bility tree represent scenarios of mixed variable conditions and a probability of occurrence of the scenario. The OGP5 production cost model was then used to determine the PW (in 1982 dollars)of the long-term cost of the electric generation related to each variable.The PW of the long-term costs for each "w i th"and "without"Sus itna scenario in terms of cumul at ive pro- bability of occurrence were determined and plotted.Net benefits of the project have also been calculated and analyzed in a proba- bilistic manner. Figures 18.1 and 18.2 present the non-Susitna and Susitna proba- bility trees with resultant long-term costs. (b) Comparison of Long-term Costs Figure 18.3 presents the two histograms of long-term costs for the "w i th''and "w l thout " Sus itna cases plotted on the same axes.From these plots it is seen that the non-Susitna plan costs could be expected to be significantly less than the Susitna plan costs for about 6 percent of the time,approximately equal to the Susitna costs 16 percent of the time,and significantly greater for 78 percent of the time. A comparison of the expected val ue of long-term costs of the "w i th"and "wi thout "Susitna cases yields an expected value net benefit of $1.45 billion.This value represents the difference between the non-Susitna LTC of $8.48 billion and the Susitna'LTC (c) Net Benefit Comparison A second method of comparing the "wi th"and "wi t hout"Susitna pro- bability trees is by making a direct comparison of similar scen- arios and c al cul at tnq Ltne net benefit which applies.As jn the case of the individual tree cases,the net benefits were ranked from low to high and plotted against cumul ative probabil ity.This graph has been represented as a single line due to the number of points on the curve.It,however,would be most accurately por- trayed as a histogram in the manner of Figure 18.3.The net bene- fits vary from a negative $2.92 billion with an associated pr oba- bilityof .0015 to a high of $4.80 billion with an associated 18-16 I I ! IJ U U 1_1 probability of .018.The single comparison with the highest pro- bability of occurrence of .108 has a net benefit of $2.0~billion. Figure 18.4 plots the net benefit with the cross-over between the "wi th"and "without"Sus itna costs occurring at about 23 percent. This is consistent with the previous comparison and with the ex- pected value net benefit calculated by this method of $1.45 bil- l ion. (d)Sensitivity of Results to Probabilities In assigning the probabilities of occurrence for each set of vari- ables,a number of subjective assumptions were made.An exception was the Susitna capital cost probabil ity distribut ion which was supported by a probabilistic risk assessment of construction cost. The probabilities for load forecast of 0.2,0.6 and 0.2 for the low,medium and high cases respectively,reflect the analysis by Battelle and the probability of exceedence of approximately 10 percent for the high level of demand. Capital costs,for alternative generation modes as estimated by EBASCO for Battelle reflect a 0.20,0.60 and 0.20 distribution, again within a range of a 90 percent chance of exceedence of the low and 10 percent exceedence of the high level. The single variable to which the results are most sensitive is the rate of real fuel escalation adopted.(This conclusion is sup- ported by the single variable analysis as well.)The distribution of probabilities was 0.25,0.50 and 0.25 for low,medium and high fuel cost escalation scenarios.A case can be made for the agree- ment that some of the combined events,for example high fuel cost escalation,load and capital cost are not (as our results assume) independent of each other.Hi gh fuel pr ices,it may be argued, would result in lower load and increased capital cost.It is pro- bable,however,that the greater revenues consequent on higher fuel prices would result in greater economic activity in Alaska thus increasing demand for energy.This and other considerations led to the conclusion that the results would be relatively insen- sitive to probable ranges of interdependence. (e)Approach to Risk Analysis A separate risk analysis was undertaken to provide a basis for de- termining the extent to which perceived risks are likely to influ- ence capital costs and schedule.In addition,because Susitna Project when operating would represent a major portion of the to- tal generation system, a further risk analysis was made to assess the probability and consequences of a long-term outage of the pro- posed transmission system.Paragraphs (e) to (h)summarize both risk analyses.A more detailed treatment is included in the ref- erence report "Economic,Marketing on Financial Ev aluat i on "(20). 18-17 Any major construction effort is inevitably exposed to a large number of risks.Low probabil ity magnitude floods may occur at critical periods of construction:accidents may happen:sub-sur- face investigations,no matter how thorough,cannot always predict actual conditions uncovered when the major excavations are under- taken:the normal estimating process implicity assumes a set of reasonably "normal"expectations as direct costs are developed, adding a contingency to the directly computed total on the grounds that problems usually do occur even though their specific nature may not be accurately foreseen at the outset. The Susitna risk analysis took explicit account of 21 different risks,applying them, as appropriate,to each major construction activity.The effort involved combining reasonably precise data (e.g.,the probability that a particular flood crest will occur in any given year can be determined from analysis of hydrologic records)with numerous subjective judgments (e.g.,until a parti- cul ar flood crest does occur,it cannot be known with any degree of certainty what damage it will cause).The overall methodology is illustrated in Figure 18.5. (f)Elements of the Risk Analysis Figure 18.6 depicts graphically important questions which were addressed at the start and relates them to elements of the analy- sis.Each element is further subdivided as follows: (i)Configurations Three primary configurations were considered: -The Watana hydroelectric project (with transmission); -The Dev il Canyon hydroe 1ectr ic project (with transmi s- sion);and -The Susitna transmission system alone. Separate risk studies of these configurations permitted the .·pr 6a-uct,on·.of daTa:·wnicficanoeagg reg area-in··\far-To us···ways to accommodate alternative IIpower-on-linell dates which differ according to the various demand forecasts. (ii)Configuration States Two configuration states were considered: -Construction Period - appl icable to Watana and Devil Canyon -Operation Period -applied only in this analysis,to the transmission system configuration. I 1 1 'I 1 I -\ 1 -j I ] I ! I ! ] [] [] '1[J II1_, U !J (iii)Risks Twenty-one risks were identified for consideration in the analysis and were grouped as follows: Natural Risks - 7 risks including flood,ice,seismic effects,geologic conditions,etc. Design Controlled Risks -2 risks,seepage piping erosion and ground water. -Construction Risks -6 risks including availability of equipment,labor and material and weather. -Human Risks -4 risks including accidents,sabotage and factors relating to contract~r capability. -Special Risks -2 risks,regulatory delay and estimating variance. (iv)Activities For each configuration state involving construction,up to 22 activities were considered.For Watana,for example, these included facilities ranging from the main dam to transmission lines and major key events such as impoundment and start-up. (v)Damage Scenarios Up to ten different damage scenarios were associated with each logical risk-activity combination.While these varied significantly from one risk-activity combination to another,they generally described a range of possibilities wh ich accounted for discrete increments extend ing from "no d amaqe"to "c at as tr oph tc loss". (vi)Criteria The consequences of realizing particular risk magnitudes for each activity were measured in terms of cost and sche- dule implication and manpower requirement. (vii)Boundary Conditions The following assumptions and limitations were established to permit a reasonable and consistent analysis of the pro- blem: -All cost est imates were made in terms of January 1982 dollars.Thus,results are presented in this report in 18-19 terms only of real potential cost variations,exclusive of inflation. -The analysis was limited only to the construction periods for Watana and Devil Canyon since the greatest potential cost and schedule variance would be possible during these periods.The risk analysis for the operating period was associated solely with the transmission system since that configuration represents the most 1 ikely source of a major system outage during the project operation. -The risk analysis was accomplished concurrently with finalization of the total project cost estimate and was necessarily associated with the feasibility level design. There is clearly some potential for design change as the project proceeds;a further risk analysis should be undertaken coincident with completion of final detailed des ign and pr ior to commitment to major construct ion activities.Even so,the "e stimating variance"risk takes into account the fact that'some design changes are likely to appear as detailed design effort proceeds. (g)Risk Assessments For each of the risks identified in paragraph 18.2 (f)(iii) above,the assessment commenced with detailed definition of credi- ble events.Where flood was identified as a risk,for example, the potential magnitudes and associated probabilities of the floods were estimated.Data sources ranged from reasonably accur- ate scientific data (particularly applicable to the natural risk category),historical experience on water resources projects,to subjective group judgments where data gaps existed. In each case,the maximum credible event was first establ ished. This choice set an upper limit on a scale of possible events starting at "no damage"situation.Continuing with flood as an example,the maximum credible event was considered to be the pro- hab1e maximum flood .whic h hadbeencomputedjn ..theh,ydroJog ic studies (corresponding to a return period of more than 10,000 years and an annual probability of occurrence of less than .0001). Once risks were defined and logical risk-activity combinations were reviewed,the consequences of realizing each selected risk magnitude were considered (if this risk magnitude is realized, will a partially completed structure be damaged? Will it fail? If it fails,is some other work in progress disrupted?).Because of the uncertainties associated with these projections,a range of damage scenarios and associated probabilities of them occurring was establ ished. Even if a particul ar risk level is real ized and a particul ar damage is suffered,the cost and schedule of restoring the I 1 I I ! j ,.1 1 ~l "j I ) J 1 I 1 I .) [J u u [J activity are difficult to precisely establish.Each of the risk analysts therefore provided three values for each criterion: - a minimum value corresponding to the one time in twenty that the weather is particularly good,materials are readily available, no accidents occur,etc.; - a modal value associated with the most likely expectation of the anal yst; - a maximum value corresponding to the one time in twenty that everything is more difficult than expected. In the computerized calculation process,the three criterion values supplied by the risk analyst were fitted to a triangular distribution,which approximated the beta distribution illustrated at the bottom of Figure 18.7. In effect,then,designation of the three conceptual criterion values led to generation of a histogram with relatively narrow in- tervals and a nearly continuous range of possible values over a relatively wide spectrum. Figure 18.7 illustrates the structural relationship for handling risk-activity combinations,damage scenarios,and criterion values. (h)Interpretation of Results (i)Presentation of Data Minor variations in activity costs were generated by the estimating team concurrent with development of the risk analysis.In addition,account was taken of the expecta- tion that construction costs will escalate at a faster rate than normal infl ation -both in the economic analyses and the risk analyses.To avoid confusion regarding absolute cost values,the results of the risk analysis are presented in th is sect ion as percentages of the est imated proj ect cost or as ratios between actual costs and estimated costs. (ii)Watana Cost-Probability Distribution Figure 18.8 illustrates the cumulative distribution of total direct costs and their rel ated non-exceedance proba- bilities as determined in the risk analysis.Certain im- portant points noted on the figure are interpreted as follows: 18-21 - The project direct cost estimate,including contingen- cies,was presented in Chapter 16.Point II All on Figure 18.8 corresponds to this project estimate:the analysis suggests that the probabil ity of completing Watana for less than the project estimate which includes a 17.5 percent contingency allowance is 73 percent. -Point IIB II corresponds to the "Tow"cost estimate which was tested for sensitivity in the OGP5 system cost analy- sis.The probability that Watana will be completed for less than this cost estimate is about 46 percent. -Point "C"on Figure 18.8 corresponds to a cost equal to the "h i qh"estimate tested in the OGP5 analysis to deter- mine the effect of such a cost on total project econom- ics.The risk analysis suggests that there is a 90 per- cent probability that this cost will not be exceeded. -As will be noted from Figure 18.8,there remains a small but measurable possibility that the project costs will exceed even the "hiqh"estimate value at Point IIC II ..It can be argued that the degree of conservatism which was used in the analysis has overstated the possibility of extreme upper 1 imits on total cost.Paragraph (v) below addresses this issue,comparing these results with his- tor ica 1 data. The expected value of the actual cost is 9U.25 percent of the project estimate. (iii)Devil Canyon -Probability Distributions Figure 18 e ,9 provides the cumul at ive probabil ity distribu- tion for Uevil Canyon costs.Points A,B, and C on the curve correspond to those discussed above for Watana and are associated with probabilities of 74 percent,47 per- cent,and 90 percent,respectively,for actual percentages .....__.....Qf ..t b~J>Y'Qj~fJ .~stjrn_~t~_Q~il}g_._l§_~j:_t!.~n_j nd i c~ted .._v Cllll~?· Once again,a not insignificant long "t a i l" in the extreme upper righthand portion of the distribution provides a measure of the potent ial exposure to 1 arge overruns.The expected val ue of the actual cost is 91.5 percent of the project estimate. (iv)Total Project Distribution Figure 18.10 combines the separate Watana and Devil Canyon projects,providing a cumulative distribution for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project as a whole.Points A,B, and C now have associated probabilities of non-exceedance of 73 percent,47 percent and 90 percent,respectively,suggest- ing that a broad range of total project cost ratios are ,I 1 1 I) I I 1 ) 1 l 1 1 1 .1 I I ) J possible.In the 10 percent range and 90 percent probabil- ity interval,the cost range spans nearly $3 billion.If the project follows historical patterns,it may be expected that this range will narrow over time as detailed design and construction proceed.Note that the cost distributions are in every case based upon January 1982 dollars and do not account for the effects of inflation.Interest during construction and finance charges are not incl uded.Only the potential for extraordinary construction cost escala- tion (over and above inflation)has been taken into ac- count.It follows that if the project is completed in the next several decades,the final "actual"cost will have to be adjusted to equivalent 1982 dollars if it is to be com- pared with risk analysis results presented herein. (v)Comparison with Available Uata During the assessment of the important "est imat ing vari- ance"risk,historical data for 4~federal water resources projects completed prior to passage of NEPA was considered. Figure 18.11 offers a cumul ative probabil ity historical program for various cost ratios.In each case,the cost rat io refl ects the actual project cost (after adjustment for inflation)divided by the "{n i t i al "estimated cost.It will be seen that relatively large overruns have occurred in the past,while there is also evidence that a substan- t ial number of water resources projects have been accom- plished for less than the originally estimated costs. In order to compare this information with the Susitna risk analysis results,it is necessary to determine the meaning of the "f n i t i a l"estimate in terms of the historical data. In each case,the "{n i t i al "estimate is the estimate pre- sented to the Congress at the time that a request was made for project authorization.Thus,it would be inappropriate to regard the current Susitna estimate (as discussed in Chapter 16)as an "fn it t e l"estimate in the federal sense. Fortunately,however,the Susitna Project does have a long history of federal involvement.Indeed,the Corps of Engi~ neers provided a detailed "f n i t i al "estimate in 1975 as the basis for seeking authorization for important design activ- ities.This "fn it t al "estimate was further updated by a second "{n i t i al "estimate in 1979 after some additional ex- ploratory work and further analysis were requested by the Office of Management and Budget.Incl us ive of cont ingen- cies and excluding lands,the direct cost "In i t t al "Corps of Engineers'estimate (from the 1979 report)in January 1982 dollars for the Watana/Devil Canyon (thin arch dam) Project was used as the denominator for display of possible Susitna cost ratios. 18-23 Figure 18.12 overlays the results of the Susitna risk analysis on the historical data.Note that the cost ratios differ on this display from those on Figure 18.10 because of the necessity to use the "{n i t i al "estimate for compari- son purposes. As may be seen from Figure 18.12,the Susitna risk analysis results reflect a more pessimistic expectation at low cost levels than the historical data would appear to indicate is appropriate. (vi)Schedule Risks At the same time that minimum,modal,and maximum cost values were estimated for each damage scenario in each risk-activity set,estimates were also made of similar values for potential schedule changes.As a result,sche- dule probability distributions were generated for each major activity.However,these individual distributions could not be combined in the same manner in which the cost data were hand 1ed. A critical path network was prepared for the entire set of activities for each configuration.Individual probability distributions for critical activities were then combined to yield a distribution for the total project schedule. Several crit ical paths were ident ified in the process, since a long delay on a non-critical activity can,of course,place that activity on a new critical path.The "r aw"schedule delay distribution was then considered in the context of a one-year schedul e contingency which had been built into the original estimate and in light of regu- latory delay risks.The resulting distributions are dis- cussed and interpreted as follows: -Figure 18.13 provides a cumulative probability distribu- tion·in months from the scheduled compl.et-ton-dat.a for the Watana Project.It reflects all risk contributions ex- cept those posed by regulatory requirements.It is based upon a critical path through the main dam construction and takes into account the one-year schedule contingency. The indicated probability of completing the project ahead of schedule or on time is about 65 percent.There is only a 17-percent chance of completing the proJect a year early (i .e . , in 1992). -Figure 18.14 provides a similar distribution after regu- 1 ator y risks are accounted for.Two components are included:(1)prior to the start of construction,a 1 icense must be issued by the Federal Energy Regul atory 'J .1 J J .) 'J 1 J ,J ] :I 1 :1 :J I J ) ] 1 ["l J ["] J f1u u U IJ IJ Commission.There is a small chance (estimated to be 25 percent)that the 1 icense will be issued a year earl ier than the current 30-month licensing schedule anticipates. The probability of meeting or improving upon the 30-month est imate is about 72 percent and there is a 90 percent probabil ity that not more than 38 months wi 11 be re- quired;(2)during the construction period,regulatory del ays may be imposed as a resul t of various permitt ing requirements,injunctions,etc.These delays yield only increases in schedule and range from a 50 percent proba- bility of delays of a month or less to a 95 percent pro- bability that regulatory delays during construction will not exceed 12 months. As may be seen from Figure 18.14,the net effect of the regulatory risks is to broaden the range of possible values.At the lower end of the distribution,it will be noted that the chances of completing at least a year early will have increased to nearly 40 percent -primarily be- cause of the chance of getting a 1 icense early and there- fore,starting early.No significant change appears for the probability of meeting or improving upon the schedule. A substantial effect is evident in the upper portion of the curve where the chances of long regul atory del ays have pushed out the 95 percent confidence level to an expecta- t ion of no more than three months attributable to risks other than regulatory,as may be seen on Figure 18.13. While similar distributions can be plotted for Devil Canyon,they are less meaningful since there is flexibility associated with its starting date. (vii)Transmission Line Risks The separate risk analysis of the Susitna transmission sys- tem (which is described in detail in Section 14)was con- ducted to determine the probability of significant power supply interruptions at the two major load centers in Anchorage and Fairbanks.The methodology was generally similar to that described in preceding paragraphs.Recog- nizing that the system is assumed to be in an operating mode,those risks which had appl ied only for construction in the preceding analysis (e.g.,contractor capability) were eliminated from the risk list.Additions to the list were made to account for the potential effects of lighting, aircraft,collisions,and anchor-dragging in Knik Arm (appl icable to the submarine cable segment).Account was taken of redundancies designed into the system (e.g.,a loss of one line in the three-line system extending south toward Anchorage can be tolerated with no loss of energy delivery capability). 18-25 In addition,special attention was given to dependencies (e.g.,an earthquake which causes the loss of two lines will very likely knock out the third.On the other hand, vandalism which causes an outage on one line is only infre- quently expected to extend to all 1 ines).Important assumptions included the availability of well-trained repair crews and equipment,and a reasonable supply of spare components. The results of the analysis provide the cumulative proba- bil ity of not exceeding a given number of days of reduced energy del ivery capabil ity.Figures 18.15 and 18.16"dis- play this information for Anchorage and Fairbanks,respec- tively.Interpretations are as follows: - In the particular case of Anchorage (Figure 18.15),it will first be noted that the probability scale includes only the extreme upper range of non-exceedance probabili- ties.The intersection of the distribution curves on the probabil ity axis indicates that the probabil ity of no lost energy delivery capability in a given year is 0.95$ and of not having 50 percent reduction of 0.955.Beyond these points the curves rise sharply,indicating that outages beyond five days are extremely unlikely.The "expected"annual value of 0.06961 days for a total de- livery loss may be compared with the "Ioss of load pro- babil i ty"of 0.1 (one day in ten years)which had been used in the generation planning efforts in the economic studies.In short,the risk analysis confirms that the reliability of the transmission system for energy deliv- ery to Anchorage is consistent with the requirements of the overall Railbelt generation system.The "expected" annual value of 0.09171 days for a 50 percent reduction in energy delivery appears to be similarly acceptable when compared to assumed loss of load probability. -The cumulative probability distribution for Fairbanks .."."(Figure Is.16)"hasasl fght r.y"cfrrrere"rir···i nterce pt·Onffi"e probability axis and its shape is also slightly different from those for Anchorage. These differences stem from the fact that del ivery to Fairbanks requires no submerged crossing and certain other risks (e.g.,flood,tempera- ture extremes)would be expected to have different proba- bil ities for northern and southern segments of the sys- tem. In spite of the absolute differences,it may be seen from the d ispl ay that "expec ted"annual value of .08116 does not exceed the loss of load probability cri- terion of 0.1 days per year.No 50 percent loss for Fairbanks is shown since the loss of one of two lines causes no reduction in del ivery capabil ity.Two 1 ines lost is,of course,a 100 percent loss. 18-26 ) ] ] 1 ] ] ;4 :1 J ] J J J 1 ) .) J ] 1 1·1 ( I (vlll)Emergency Response (1 () n (1) In sp i t e of the apparent r-e t t ab i l t ty of the transmlssion system,It 15 nonetheless true that a small but f i nl t e chance of relatlvely long-term outages does ex i st .It i s also unfortunately true that cer t ain extreme risk magnl- tudes (e.g.,comblnatlon of extreme loss temperature,wind, and lce)whlch could lead to an outage also tend to cOln- clde wlth hlgh demands by users on the generatlng system. The "response"i n t hi s case i s extremely lmportant.The sectlon deallng wlth rlsk analysls,in the Reference Report "Economic,Marketlng and Flnanclal Evaluatlon"(25) pro- v i des such a response i n the form of a prellmlnary emer- gency plan wh i ch Inc ludes such measures as sheddlng non- essentlal loads,puttlng reserve capaclty on-Ll ne,and energy transfers from ml l i tary generat 1on systems.Pr 1or to the t ime that the Susltna Hydroelectrlc Project comes into operatlon,thls plan should be updated and occaslonal tests should be made. Concluslons The central concluslons of the Probablllty Assessment are that the expected value of the PW net beneflt from Susitna is $1.45 blllion and that th i s value has a 0.5 probablllty of being exceeded. There lS also only a 0.36 probabillty of the net benefit falling below $0.5 bi ll i cn. Based upon the Rlsk Analysls,it is concluded that: -The prob ab t l i t i es that actual costs will not exceed values subjected to sens it iv i ty tests in the economic analys i s are as follows: Value Probablllty That Value Will Not Be Exceeded 18-27 -The annual probablllty that no lnterruptlon ln energy dellvery to major load centers wlll occur as a result of tr ansml ss ton line fallures lS ln excess of 95 percent. - Exposure to potent ial costs above the project est irnat es does eXlst and there lS about a 1 percent chance that an overrun of 40 percent or more (in 1982 dollars)will occur. 73% 47% 90% Project Estimate Low Capltal Cost Tested ln the Economlc Analysls Hlgh Capltal Cost Tested ln the Economlc Analysis f1u I.J U U U (J - Expected values of energy delivery interruptions are less than one day in ten years and are consl stent with loss of load probabilities assumed in the generation planning efforts. - There is a 65 percent probability that the Watana Project will be completed prior to the scheduled time in 1993. Exposure to schedule delays is heavily influenced by regulatory requirements and there is a 10 percent pr-ob abi ll ty that the Watana Project will not be completed until 1995 or later. 18.3 - Marketing This section presents an assessment of the market in the Ra i lbel t Region for the energy and capacity of the Susitna development. A range of rates at which this power could be priced is presented together with a proposed basis for contracting for the supply of Susitna energy. (a)The Railbelt Power System Susl tna capac i ty and energy will be deli vered to the "Ra i lbeIt Regi on Interconnected Syst em"wh i ch will result from the 11 nkage of the Anchorage and Fairbanks systems by an intertie to be com- pleted in the mid-1980s. The Railbelt Region covers the Anchorage-Cook Inlet area,the Fairbanks-Tanana Valley area,and the Glennallen-Valdez area (Figure 18.17).The utilities,military installations and uni- versities within this Region which own electric generating facil- ities are listed in Table 18.15.The service areas of these util- ities are shown in Figure 18.18 and the generat ng p s serving the region are listed in Table 18.16. The Railbelt Region is currently served by nine major utility sys- tems;five are rural electric cooperatives,three are municipally owned and operated,and one is a federal wholesaler.The relative mix of electric generating technologies and types of fuel used by the Railbelt utilities in 1980 is summarized in Figure 18.19. ~Tn .1980,the Anchor.aqe-Cook In]et~ace~had~8L_peLcent,the Fairbanks-Tanana Valley area 17 percent,and the Glennallen-Valdez area 2 percent of the total energy sales in the Railbelt Region. If the recommendations of the May 1981 Gilbert/Commonwealth Report are implemented,the Anchorage and Fairbanks power systems will be intertied before the Susi tna Project comes into operat i on .The proposed intertie will allow a capacity transfer of up to 70 MW in either direction.The proposed plan of interconnection envisages initial operation at 138 kV with subsequent uprating to 345 kV allowing the line to be integrated into the Susitna transmission f aci lit ies. ] J ] .] 1 ) ~) ) ) J ) I ) J J ) ) J ) r-j u [..j l (J u [J [J u (b) (c) Regional Electric Power Demand and Supply A review of the socioeconomic scenarios upon which forecasts of electric power demand were based is presented in Section 5 of this report.The forecasts adopted here are the mid-range levels pre- sented by Battelle Northwest in December 1981.Subsequent fore- casts which introduce price/demand elasticity considerations have not been used at this stage.The results of studies presented in Section 5 call for Watana to come into operation in 1993 and to del iver a full year ' s energy generation in 1994. Devil Canyon will come into operation in 2002 and deliver a full year's energy in 2003. Energy demand in the Railbelt Region and the del iveries from Susitna are shown in Figure 18.20. Market and Price for Watana Output in 1994 It has been assumed that Watana energy will be suppl ied at a single wholesale rate on a free market basis.This requires,in effect,that Susitna energy be priced so that it is attractive even to ut i 1 it ies with the lowest cost alternat ive source of energy.On th is bas is it is est imated that for the 3315 GWh of energy generated by Watana in 1994 to be attractive,a price of 145 mills per kWh in 1994 dollars is required.Justification for this price is illustrated in Figure 18.21.Note that the assump- tion is made that the only capital costs which would be avoided in the early 1990s would be those due to the addition of new coal- fired generating plants (i.e.,the 2 x 200 MW coal-fired Beluga station).The Susitna energy price of 145 mills/kWh suggested here matches closely the value determined from OGP5 analysis in the financial evaluation (18.4). The financing considerations under which it would be appropriate for Watana energy to be sold at approximately 145 mills kWh price are considered in Section 18.4 of this report;however,it should be noted that some of the energy which would be displaced by Watana IS 3387 GWh woul d have been generated at a lower cost than 145 mills,and util ities might wish to delay accepting it at this price until the escalating cost of natural gas or other fuels made it more attractive.A number of approaches to the resolution of this problem can be postulated including pre-contract arrangements considered in (c)(i)below. (i)Contractual Preconditions for Susitna Energy Sale It will be necessary to contract with Railbelt Utilities for the purchase of Susitna capacity and energy on a basis appropriate to support financing of the project.This should be a precondition for the actual commencement of project construction.Delay in contract negotiations until after the project was truly committed would be undesirable as the project would then represent a trapped resource with no alternative markets. 18-29 Pricing policies for Susitna output are assumed to be con- strained by both cost (as defined by Senate Bill 25)and by the price of energy from the best thermal option. Marketing Susitna's output within these twin constraints would ensure that all state support for Susitna flowed through to consumers and under no circumstances were prices to consumers higher than they would have been under the best thermal option.In addition,consumers would also obtain the long-term economic benefits of Susitna's low cost energy. (d) Market Price for Watana Output 1995-2001 After its initial entry into the system in 1994,the price and market for the 3387 MWh of Watana output is consistently upheld over the years to 2001 by the projected 20 percent increase in total demand over this period. There would, as a result,be a 70 percent increase in cost savings compared with the best thermal alternative:the increasing cost per unit of output from a system without Susitna is illustrated in Figure 18.22. (e) Market and Price for Watana and Devil Canyon Output in 2003 A diagramatic analysis of the total cost savings which the com- bined Watana and Devil Canyon output will confer on the system compared with the present thermal option in the year 2003 is shown in Figure 18.23.These total savings are divided by the energy contributed by Susitna to indicate a price of 250 mills per kWh as the maximum price which can be charged for Susitna output.Here again,the problem of competing with lower cost combined cycle, gas turbines,etc.,will have to be addressed;however,this pro- blem is likely to be short term in nature,as by this time period .t.hese thermal power facilities will be appro!'lGhillg retirement. ~-~-~---~~ Only about 90 percent of the-total Susltna'ouTputwrnbe-absorbed by the system in 2002,the bal ance of the output being progres- sively absorbed over the following decade.This will provide in- creasing total savings to the system from Susitna,with no associ- ated increase in costs. (f)Potential Impact of State Appropriations In the preceding paragraphs the maximum price at which Susitna energy could be sold has been identified.Sale of the energy at these prices will depend upon the magnitude of any proposed state appropriation designed to reduce the cost of Susitna energy in the earl ier years.At significantly lower prices it is 1 ikely that the total system demand will be higher than assumed.This, 18-30 I } 'J ) ) 1 1 ) 1 ) I I ) ) .J ) ) ) 'lIJ (g) comb ined with a state appropr i at ion to reduce the energy cost of Watana energy,would make it correspondingly easier to market the output from the Susitna development;however,as the preceding analysis shows,a viable and strengthening market exists for the energy from the development that would make it possible to price the output up to the cost of the best thermal alternative. Conclusions Hased on the assessment of the market for power and energy output from the Susitna Hydroelectric Project it has been concluded that, with the appropriate level of state appropriation and with pricing as defined in Senate Bill 25,an attractive basis exists,particu- larly in the long term,for the Railbelt utilities to derive bene- fit from the Project.It should be recognized that contractual arrangements covering purchase of Susitna output will be an essen- tial precondition for the actual commencement of project construc- tion. (1 U u u u 18.4 -Financial Evaluation (a)Forecast Financial Parameters The financial,economic,and engineering estimates used in the financial analysis are summarized in Table 18.17.The interest rates and forecast rates of inflation (in the Consumer Price Index - CPI)are of special importance.They have been based on the forecast inflation rates and the forecast of interest rates on industrial bonds as given by Data Resources Incorporated,and con- form to a range of other authoritative forecasts.To allow for the factors which have brought about a narrowing of the differen- t i al between tax-exempt and non-taxexempt secur it i es,it has been assumed that any tax-exempt financing would be at a rate of 80 percent rather than the historical 75 percent or so of the non- tax-exempt interest rate.Th i s ident ifies the forecast interest rates in the financing periods from 1985 in successive five-year periods as being of the order of 8.6 percent,7.8 percent,and 7 percent.The accompanying rate of infl at ion would be about 7 percent.In view of the uncertainty attaching to such forecasts and in the interest of conservatism,the financial projections which follow have been based upon the assumpt ion of a 10 percent rate of interest for tax-exempt bonds and an ongoinginfl at ion rate of 7 percent. (b)The Inflationary Financing Deficit The basic financing problem of Susitna is the magnitude of its "inflationary financing deficits".Under inflationary conditions these defic its (ear ly year losses)are an inherent characteri st ic of almost all debt f in anced ,long life,tapital intensive projects (see Figure 18.24).As such,they are entirely compatible (as in the Susitna case)with a project showing a good economic rate of 18-31 return.However,unless specific measures are taken to meet this "inflationary financing deficit"the project may be unable to pro- ceed without imposing a substantial and possibly unacceptable bur- den of high early-year costs on consumers. (c)The Basic Financial Options A range of financing options compatible with the conditions laid down in Senate Bill 25 have been considered as a means of meeting the inflationary financing deficit.The options basically consist of a range of appropriations by the State of Alaska with the bal- ance of the project fi nancing made up by either 35-year tax- exempt revenue bonds or by a combination of General Obl igation (G.O.)bonds and 35-year revenue bonds, with the G.O.bonds re- financed into revenue bonds at the earliest opportunity.Through- out central estimates of capital costs,revenues,etc.,are used. (i)1UO Percent State Appropriation of Total Capital Cost ($5.1 billion in 1982 dollars) This conforms to the possible outco~e of Senate ~ill 25 and represents the simplest financing option.It could take the form of the State of Alaska appropriating funds to meet capita1 costs as incurred over the 15-year construct ion schedule detailed in Table 18.18. On the basis of the present wholesale energy rate setting requirement incorporated in Senate Bill 25,the APA would, however, not be able to charge more than the actual costs incurred.Given that in this case the only costs would be the very small year-to-year operating costs,this option would involve the output from Susitna being suppl ied at only a fraction of the price of electricity from the best thermal option. (ii)State Appropriation of $3 Billion (in 1982 dollars)with Residual Bond Financing The outcome for this option is summarized in Figure 18.25 and Table 18.19.It would still enable Susitna energy to be produced at a price 46 percent less than that of the best thermal option.It would also enable the project to be completed with only $0.9 billion (in 1982 dollars)of revenue bonds or G.O.bonds over the period 1991-93.The Devil Canyon stage could then be completed with a 'further $2.3 billion (in 1982 dollars)of revenue bonds over the period 1994 to 2002. This level of appropriation would enable Susitna energy prices to be held virtually constant at their initial level for nearly a decade.A temporary "step-up"in price of Susitna output to the cost of the electricity from the best thermal option Would be required when Devil Canyon was 18-32 .-J l .J 1 ) ~·l 1 1 1 ) I 1 .1 1 ...j ) I oJ ..I J completed on the basis of its IOU percent revenue bond financing.Thereafter,however,the cost of the Susitna energy would again stabil ize and give ever-increasing sav- ings compared with cost of the best thermal option. (iii)"Ni n trmm"State Appropriation of $2.3 ~illion (in 1~82 dollars)with Residual ~ond Financing The "m in lmtm''state appropriation is taken as the mm imum amount required to meet a debt service cover of 1.25 on the residual debt financing by revenue bonds and makes Susitna's wholesale energy price competitive with the best thermal option in its first normal cost year (1994).This level of appropriation would require $1.7 billion (in 1982 doll ars)of bond financ ing in 1990-93 and a further $2.1 bill ion (in 1982 doll ars) over the period 1994 to 2002 to complete Devil Canyon (see Figure 1H.26 and Table 18.2U). These levels of state appropriation would all therefore eliminate Susitna's "{nf l at ionar y financing cef ic i t". (d)Issues Arising from the Basic Financing Uptions I.1lJ () u u (j (i) ( i i ) Need for Financial Restructuring Irrespective of Susitna being chosen as the best means of meeting the Ra i lbel t energy needs,significant financial restructuring of some Railbelt utilities will be required to enable them to offer adequate financial security in their power contracts and debt financing to meet generation expansion.It is assumed that this restructuring will take place. Tax-exempt Bond Financing In the $2.3 billion state appropriation case interest cost, on the basis of tax-exempt financing,accounts for 90 per- cent of the unit price of Susitna output in 1994.Failure to obtain tax-exempt bond financing would increase these interest costs by approximately one-quarter.Ensuring tax-exempt status for the Susitna bond issues is therefore of fundamental importance to the economics of the project under these options. This issue has been extensively reviewed by tax advisers and consultants and it has been concluded that at the stage at which bond financing is required in the early 19~Os, tax-exempt financing should be possible in compl iance with Section 103 of the IRS code. 18-33 (iii)Options for Residual Financing Tables 18.21 and 18.22 set out the estimated requirements for bond financing with State Appropriations of $3 billion and $2.3 billion respectively.Several options are avail- able to meet these financing needs and these are summarized below. -Revenue ~onds with a Completion Guarantee A completion guarantee must be assumed to be a precondi- tion of bond financing at the watana stage (up to 1~~3). A State of Alaska guarantee of project completion would probably enable all residual financing to be met by rev- enue bonds.(The completion guarantee may of necessity have to take the form of a G.O.bond authorization of an amount to be determined prior to the timing of the issuance of revenue bonds). - Guaranteed Revenue Bonds with Post-Completion Refinancing If the revenue bonds were guaranteed by the State of Alaska they could be issued without the provision of a completion guarantee. -G.O.Bonds with Post-Completion Refinancing G.O.Bonds on the "full faith and credit"of the State of Al aska are effectively identical to guaranteed revenue bonds and would also avoid the necessity of a completion guarantee. In this case,as with that of guaranteed revenue bonds, the burden on the credit of the state could be minimized by making the bonds subject to "c all"after a few years (when project viabil ity was establ ished)and refinancing ihtonoh"'guaranteed revenue bonds. (iv)Refinancing Watana and the Financing of Devil Canyon Early refinanc ing of any guaranteed or G.O.bonds used to finance Watana,and the ongoing financing of Devil Canyon entirely by revenue bonds is taken to be an important financing objective.The main factor determining the date at which such refinancing will be possible is the magnitude of the initial state appropriation.This is dealt with in terms of the risk analysis in 18.5 below. The basic conclusion from the analysis is that,with a state appropriation of $2.3 billion (in 1982 dollars), there is a very high degree of certainty that refinancing 18:.:34- 1 .) ) 1 1 ) l ,) 1 'j 1 (1 I J 1 1iJ /1 U I )I U [J (J ( e) into non-guaranteed revenue bonds could occur within a few years of project completion. (v)Importance of Adequate State Appropriation The principal effect of appropriations significantly less than $2.3 bill iqn would be a possible need for additional guaranteed or G.O.bond financing for Devil Canyon. This is because the impact of lesser appropriations would (as illustrated in Figure 18.27)give rise to inadequate earn- ings coverage in the early years of Watana,and subsequent- ly Devil Canyon, so that the raising of revenue bonds re- quiring such cover would have to be delayed.In addition, such inadequate funding would force the Susitna price to "tr ack"the cost of energy from the best thermal option unt i1 adequate revenue had been bui It up to all ow such re- financing. (vi)Impact on State Credit Rating of Guaranteed or G.O.Bond Financing The impact on state credit rating of guaranteed or G.O. bond financing of the order of $1.7 billion in the $2.3 billion (both in 1982 dollars)state appropriation case has been assessed by the Al askan Power Author ity's investment banking and financial advisers First Boston Corporation and First Southwest Company.They have concurred in the following statement. IIWe are only able to render a conditional estimate of the possible impact on the credit of the State of Alaska as a result of the contemplated general obligation bond finan- cing of $1.7 billion for the Watana stage of the Susitna hydroelectric project.Alaska's presently favorable rat- ings are greatly influenced by it's low debt to assessed value ratio which helps to overcome the unusually high per capita debt statistics.Given the dramatic growth of assessed valuation and the fact that interest expense through start-up of Watana is to be capitalized from bond proceeds the envisaged financing should not significantly impair the cred it of the state.Even if the State of Alaska's general obligation bond rating were reduced one full letter grade,the cost in terms of interest rates on future bond issues would likely be in the approximate range of 1/4 percent to 1/2 percent per annum.II Financing Options Under Senate Bill 646 and House Bill 655 As proposed these bills would permit financing of approved energy developments by state funding to be repaid at the rate of 3 per- cent per annum with an "upl if t"reflecting past inflation. 18-35 (i)100 Percent State Appropriation The outcome in this case is illustrated in Figure 18.28 and would differ from that covered by the outrightappropria- tion (c)(i)above in that the resulting charge for Susitna energy to cover the repayment of state funding would be 81 mills/kWh in 1994 compared with 19 mills/kWh in the (c)(i) case. (ii)"Minimum"State Appropriation of $3 Hillion (in 1982 dollars) The outcome of a state appropriation of $3 billion (in 1982 dollars)is shown in Figure 18.29.This also would differ from the $3 billion outright appropriation dealt with in (c)(ii)in representing the minimum compatible with resid- ual financing by revenue bonds,since the increasing pay- ments to the state create an earnings cover shortfall in 2003.It would al so result in a consequent higher charge for Susitna energy.In this case it would be 120 mills/kWh in 1994 compared with 80 mills/kWh under (c)(ii). In both (i)and (ii)Susitna energy would still be produced at a price competitive with the best thermal option.These scenarios would also be compatible (subject to certain legislative requirements)with resid- ual financing by revenue bonds. (f)Future Development and Resolution of Uncertainties Prior to the decision to proceed with actual construction of Susitna,several significant uncertainties affecting the project will have been reduced.Demand forecasts will be more certain and the impact of the electrical intertie between Anchorage and Fair- banks will be known.Fuel cost trends and energy prices from al- ternative generation sources will be more precisely known.More advanced engineering work and definition of the basis for con- struct ion contracts will have firmed up requirements for capital _f und ~,_~~JlJ_C!(:tgjt iQYlLtb e _Ra ss ag~.J)fJ~jrnj~wLlL1La ve.C!.ll owe<Lbetterr- definition of the level of state appropriation required and the ability of the state to provide the necessary financial support. The development of the institutional structure of the Railbelt utilities by this date should also permit power contracts and legislative proposals to be drawn up which would equitably share these then more clearly del ineated risks between the util ities, the Power Authority and the State of Alaska.The key requirements for state guarantees and financing could then be more precisely defined in an appropriately limited form which would be acceptable to the state and adequate for project financing. 18;;;36 1 I I ~] ) I I ) I ) J 1 1 ) 1 --I 1 I -j n!1 I]I ! (g) Conclusion The principal conclusion of the financial evaluation is that with a state appropriation of not less than $2.3 billion (in 19S2 dol- lars)and consent for guaranteed or G.O.bond financing of $1.7 billion (in 1982 dollars),Susitna would be financially viable. It would also be able to market its output at an initial price competitive with the most efficient thermal option and produce substantial long-term savings compared with this option. The evaluation,however,stressed the importance of establ ishing the project on a strong financial basis that would enable it to secure conversion of the guaranteed or G.O.bonds issued for the construction of Watana into non-guaranteed revenue bonds and ob- tain a highly competitive rate of interest.These objectives (to- gether with the marketing of the Watana output in 19Y4 and a price 46 percent below that of the most efficient thermal option),could be secured by state appropriation of $3.0 billion (in 1982 dol- lars). It should also be noted that the cost benefit analysis shows that full recovery long-term of any state appropriation would be pos- sible with a better than 10 percent rate of return.IVleeting the Susitna "inflationary financing deficit"by such appropriations can therefore be co~sidered as a separate issue from subsidization of electricity prices by foregoing recovery of all or part of the state appropriation designed to meet this deficit. lS.5 -Financial Risk The financial risks considered are those arising to the State of Alaska and to Alaskan consumers.The analysis of these risks is restricted to the period up to 2001 covering the completion of Watana and its first eight years of operation. I 1U t a)Pre-completion Risk The major pre-completion risk is simply the risk that the project will not be completed.The possibility of this arising owing to natural hazard is dealt with in Sections 9 and 10,and on the basis of this analysis this outcome has a negligibly small proba- bility of occurrence. The risk of non-completion owing to capital overrun is also ass- essed to have negligible probability.This is on the grounds that the project only involves well-established technology,has been extensively evaluated by Acres and wholly independent consultants and shown by formal probability analysis to have only a 27 to 20 percent probability of any real capital overrun. 18-37 (b)Post-completion Kisks (i)The Generation of Post-completion Risks A probabilistic financial model was developed taking into account the probab i1 ity d istr ibut ions of the major eng i- neering and financial variables on which the financial out- come for Susitna depends.This madel,the basic parameters of wh ich are given in Tab1e 18.23,was then used to con- sider in detail critical specific and aggregative risks posed by the project. (ii)Specific Risks -Specific Risk I;Risk of Hand Requirement Overrun (Figure 18.30) Extensive analysis was undertaken to assess the probabil- ity that the bond financing requirements would overrun the forecast val ues as a result of capital costs,infl a- tion,interest rates,etc.,being less favorable than forecast.In the $2.3 billion state appropriation case it was found that the probabil ity of the bond financing requirement exceeding the forecast of $1.7 billion (in 1982 dollars)by more than 50 percent was only 0.12. There is also a significant probability (0.71)that the bond financing requirements will be less than the fore- cast $1.7 billion. -Specific Risk II;Inadequate Debt Service Cover (Figure 18.31) Adverse impact on state credit rating might occur if the project failed to earn adequate debt service and cover and consequently conversion into non-guaranteed revenue bonds was delayed.The analysis showed that in the $2.3 billion state appropriation case . ....~~~-_..•~.._.~._---_._----_...~.._--_.__..•..~..----~----_.....--~-~._----_..~-_._----~~---~_.._...._..._.....•_~--_....•. The probabil ity of forecast coverage being less than adequate (1.25 coverage)in 1994 (first normal year of Watana)is 0.22. Given that the probabil ity of coverage shortfall dimin- ishes with time (due to increased cost of alternative fuels),the risk of delayed conversion due to inadequate cover is minimal. -Specific Risk III;Early Year Non-viability (Figure 18.32) The measure of financial non-viability in the early years is taken as the ratio of Watana's unit cost to the costs 1 1 )~1 1 J 1 J I 1 1 j 1 f\ I J 11 IJ [I I ) i] ( I u u ( c) of the best thermal option in Watana's third year (19~ti). (For comparab il ity excess debt serv ice cover was ex- cluded.)If this ratio is less than forecast it would reflect "non-viability"in the sense of the project not real izing its forecast savings in these important early years.This analysis indicates that in the $2.3 billion appropriation case there is only a 0.29 chance of the Susitna costs exceeding their forecast value (51 percent of the best thermal). (iii)The Aggregate Risk While specific risks of the type considered above are of importance basic concern must center on the aggregate risk. In long-term economics this is measured by the risk attach- ing to the rate of return.For the purpose of the finan- cial risk,however,it is taken as represented by accumula- tive net operating earnings at the end of the first eight years of operation of Watana.Since this statistic is net of interest and debt repayment,it effectively subsumes all the risks involved in capital expenditure,inflation,in- terest rates,revenue,etc.,deviating from their forecast values.This statistic was also adjusted to allow the pricing up of Watana energy to the cost of the best thermal option so that the statistic reflects the "upside"risk as well as the "downside." On this basis in the $2.3 billion state appropriation case the statistic (see Figure 18.33)was found to have only a 0.27 chance of being below forecast level of $0.8 billion (in 1982 dollars)by more than $0.2 billion.There is also a 0.73 probability of the statistic exceeding $0.8 billion and thus creating greater savings for the Alaskan·comsumer. Conclusions The analysis shows the exposure of the project,either to critical specific risks or to aggregative risk,at the Watana stage is rel- atively 1 imited.The qual ification attaching to this analysis is that the est imates and probabil it ies used are free from any sys- tematic biases.The structure of the plan of the overall plan of study for Sus itna and analys i s of its alternat ives has however been specifically designed to take every reasonable precaution against this possibil ity by seeking extensive independent verifi- cation of the key variables by Batelle and Ebasco operating wholly as independent consultants. 18-39 I) /i.J LJ iJ LIST OF REFERENCES (1) u.S.Department of Labor,Monthly Labor Review,various issues. (2) Alaska Uepartment of Commerce and Economic Development,The Alaska Economic Information and Reporting System,July 19~0. (3) Data Resources Inc.,U.S.Long-Term Review,Fall 1980, Lexington, MA,1980. (4)Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates,Fall 19~1,Philadel- phia,PA,(reported in Economic Council of Canada CANuIDE Model 2-0 Run,dated December 1~,lY~I.) (5)Baumo l, W.J.,"On the Social Rate of Dt scourrt",American Economic Review,Vol. 58,September 1968. (6)Mishan,E.J.,Cost-Benefit Analysis,George Allen and Unwin, London,1975. (7)Prest,A.R.and R.Turvey,"Co s t-Benef i t Analysis:A Survey", Economic Journal,Vol. 75, 1965. (8)U.S.Department of Commerce,Survey of Current Business,various issues. (9) Data Resources,Inc.,personal communication,November 1981. (10)World Bank,personal communication,January 1981. (11) U.S.Department of Energy,Energy Information Administration, Annual Report to Congress,Washington,D.C.,1980. (12) National Energy Board of Canada,Ottawa,Canada,personal communi- cation,October 1981. (13)Noroil,"Natur-al Gas and International LNG Trade";Vol.9, October 1981. (14)Segal,J. "Slower Growth for the 19(50'sll,Petroleum Economist, December 1980. (15)Segal,J.and F.Niering,"Spec i al Report on World Natural Gas Pricing ll,Petroleum Economist,September 1980. (16)SRI International,personal communication,October 1981. (17)World Bank,Commodity Trade and Price Trends,Washington 1980. LIST UF REFERENCES (Cont'd) (18)Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories,Beluga Coal Market Study, Final Report, Richland,Washington,198U. (19)B.C.Business,August 1981. (20)Coal Week International,various issues. (21) Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry,personal communication,January 1982. (22)Canadian Resourcecon Limited,Industrial Thermal Coal Use in Canada,1980 to 2010,May 1980. (23)Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories,Alaska Coal Future Avail- ability and Price Forecast,May 1981. (24)Roberts,J.O.et al,Treatment of Inflation in the Development of Discount Rates and Level ized Costs in NEPA Analyses for the Electric Util ity Industry,U.S.Nuclear Regul atory Commis- sion,Washington,D.C., January 19~0. (25)Acres American Incorporated.Report on "Economic,Marketing and Financial Evaluation"for Susitna Hydroelectric Project. l' \ i 1 } l oj 1 1 1 1 I I 1 -I I I r TABLE 18.1:REAL (INFLATION-ADJUSTED)ANNUAL GROWTH IN OIL PRICES Growth Rates (Percent) 11 Low Case Medium (most likely case) High Case 1982-2000 a 2.0 4.0 2000-2040 a 1.0 2.0 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 !J !) LJ II....1 Base Period (January 1982) Price of No.2 Fuel Oil -$6.50/MMBtu. TABLE 18.2:DOMESTIC MARKET PRICES AND EXPORT OPPORTUNITY VALUES OF NATURAL GAS Domestic Market Price 1 Export OPaortunit~Value Low Medlum Hlgh Probability of ---Low Me lum 19h Occurrence N.A.N.A. N.A.279~469~279~ Base Period Value $3.00/MMBtu -$4.65/MMBtu 2 - Real Escalat~on CIF Pr ice,Japan 1982 - 2000 N.A.a·'2·'4·''.-c '. 2000 - 2040 m6 1·'2%.c Real Escalatton Alaska Price 1982 - 2000 a·'2.59~5.09~a·'2.7%5.29~-c '. 2000 - 2040 0%2.09~2.09~a·'1.29~2.29~'. OGP5 analysis used domestic market prices with zero escalation beyond 2010. (Source:Battelle) 2 Based on CIF price in Japan ($6.75)less estimated cost of liquefaction and shipping ($2.10).(Source:13,14,15). 3 Source:(9),(16) • 4 Alaska opportunity value escalates more rapidly than CIF prices as lique- faction and shipping costs are estimated to remain constant in real terms. TABLE 18.3:SUMMARY OF COAL OPPORTUNITY VALUES Base Period Annual Real Growth Rate Probabilit y :'\(Jan.1982)of Value 1980 - 2000 2000 - 2040 Occurrence . ($/MMBtu)(~O (~O 0''0 Base Case '1BattelleBase, Period CIF Price Med ium Scenar io I- CIF Japan 1.95 2.0 1.0 49 -FOB Beluga 1.43 2.6 1.2 49 - Nenana 1.75 2.3 1.1 49 +~l Low Scenario - CIF Japan 1.95 0 0 24 ,I-FOB Beluga 1.43 0 0 24 - Nenana 1.75 0.1 0.1 24 High Scenar io .1- CIF Japan 1.95 4.0 2.0 27 -FOB Beluga 1.43 5.0 2.2 27 - Nenana 1.75 4.5 1.9 27 Sensitivity Case Updated Base Period CIF Price1 Medium Scenario - CIF Japan 2.66 2.0 1.0 49 -FOB Beluga 2.08 2.5 1.2 49 -FOB Nenana 1.74 2.7 1.2 49 Low Scenario - CIF Japan 2.66 0 0 24 -FOB Beluga 2.08 0 0 24 -..FOB-Nenana-1.74 -0.2 -0.1 24 High Scenario -\ I- CIF Japan 2.66 4.0 2.0 27 -TOB Beluga 2.08 4.8 2.2 27 -FOB Nenana 1.74 5.3 2.3 27 J Assuming a 10 percent discount for Alaskan coal due to quality differen- tials,and export potential for Healy coal. rJ TABLE 18.4:SUMMARY OF FUEL PRICES USED IN THE OGP5 PROBABILITY TREE ANALYSIS Fuel Price Scenario Low Medium High I ] Probability of occurrence 25~~5m~25~~ Base period January 1982 prices (1982$/MMBt u) () Fuel Oil 6.50 6.50 6.50II Natural Gas 3.00 3.00 3.00 Coal -Beluga 1.43 1.43 1.43 - Nenana 1.75 1.75 1.75 Real escatation rates per year (percent) Fuel Oil - 1982 - 2000 0 2.0 4.0 - 2000 - 2040 0 2.0 2.0 Natural Gas - 1982 - 2000 0 2.5 5.0 - 2000 - 2040 0 2.0 2.0 Beluga Coal - 1982 - 2000 0 2.6 5.0 - 2000 - 2040 0 1.2 2.2 Nenana Coal - 1982 - 2000 0.1 2.3 4.5 - 2000 - 2040 0.1 1.1 1.9 Beyond 2010,the OGP analysls has used zero real escalation in all cases. LJ u ] Net Economic Benefit of Susitna Plan Plan ID Non Susitna A Susitna C TABLE 18.5:ECONOMIC ANALYSIS JSUSITNAPROJECT-BASE PLAN 1982 Present Worth gf System Costs $x 10 1993-Estimated 1993- Components 2010 2010 2011-2051 2051 600 MW Coal-Beluga 3,213 491 5,025 8,238 200 MW Coal-Nenana 630 MW GT 680 MW Watana 3,119 385 3,943 7,062 ~1 600 MW Devil Canyon 180 MW GT J 1,176 TABLE 18.6:SUMMARY OF LOAD FORECASTS USED FOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Medium Low High MW GWh MW GWh MW GWh--- ___________1.9.9.0..892 4,456 802 3,9.99___..j.,.o98 __...._...5,203. 2000 1,084 5,469 921 4,641 1,439 7,457 2010 1,537 7,791 1,245 6,303 2,165 11,435 I.1 i] I I TABLE 18.7:LOAD FORECAST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 1982 Present Worth of System Costs ($x 10 6) Ii 1 ) Plan ID Components Non-Susitna K1 400 MW Coal-Beluga with Low Forecast 200 MW Coal-Nenana 560 MW GT Susitna K2 680 MW Watana (1995) with Low Forecast 600 MW Devil Canyon (2004) Non-Susitna J 1 800 MW Coal-Beluga with High Forecast 200 MW Coal-Nenana 700 MW GT 430 MW Pre-1993 Susitna J2 680 MW Watana (1993) with High Forecast 600 MW Devil Canyon (1997) 350 MW GT 430 MW Pre-1993 1 From 1993 to 2040 1993- 2010 2,640 2,882 4,176 3,867 2010 404 360 700 564 Estimated 2011-2051 4,238 3,768 6,683 5,380 1993- 2051 6,878 6,650 10,8591 1 Net Economic Benefit 228 1,612 TABLE 18.8:DISCOUNT RATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 1982 Present Worth of System Costs ($x 10 6) Real Net I . Discount Rate 1993-Estimated 1993- Economic I I Plan ID (Percent)2010 2010 2011-2051 2051 BenefitLJ Non-Susitna Q1 2 3,701 465 7,766 11,167 U Susitna Q2 2 3,156 323 5,394 8,550 2,617 Non-Susitna A 3 3,213 491 5,025 8,328 ..' lJ Susitna C 3 3,119 385 3,943 7,062 1,176 Non-Susitna S1 4 2,791 517 3,444 6,235 Susitna S2 4 3,080 457 3,046 6,126 109 Non-Susitna P1 5 2,468 550 2,478 4,946 Susitna P2 5 3,032 539 2,426 5,459 (513) TABLE 18.9:CAPITAL COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 1982 Present Worth of System Costs ($ x 1061- Net 1993-Estimated 1993-Economic Plan ID 2010 2010 2011-2051 2051 Benefit Non-Susitna Capital 1CostsUp20Percent Non-Susitna G 3,460 528 5,398 8,858 Susitna C1 3,119 385 3,943 7,062 '1,976 ,I Non-Susitna Capital Costs Down 10 Percent ~JNon-Susitna G 3,084 472 4,831 7,915 Susitna C1 3,119 385 3,943 7,062 853 Susitna Capital Costs Less Contingency Non-Susitna A 3,213 491 5,025 8,238 ~)Susitna X2 2,710 336 3,441 6,151 2,087 Susitna Capital Costs Plus Doubled Contingency Non-Susitna A 3,213 491 5,025 8,238 Susitna Y2 3,529 434 4,445 7,974 264 An adjustment calculation was made regarding the +capital costs of the 3GT ~nits added in 2007-2010 since the difference was less than $10 xl0.Beyond 2010,this effect was not included. TABLE 18.10:SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS -UPDATED BASE PLAN (JANUARY 1982)COAL PRICES 1982 Present Worth of System Costs ($x 10 6) Base Period Beluga Costs of Costs of Net Coal Price Non-Susitna Susitna Economic (1982 $/MMBtu)Plan Plan Benefits Base Case 1.43 8,238 7,062 1,176 Sensitivity (Updated)Case 2.08 9,030 7,062 1,968 ,.j I' I J [1 \J 11I'~.J I] L-l LJ u TABLE 18.11:SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS -REAL COST ESCALATION 1982 Present Worth gf System CostsrsX10 ) 1993-Estimated 1993-Net Plan ID 2010 2010 2011-2051 2051 Benefit Zero-Escalation in Capital and O&M Costs •Non-Susitna 01 2,838 422 4,319 7,157 •Susitna O2 2,525 299 3,060 5,585 1,572 Escalation in Capital 1 Costs and O&M (Battelle) •Non-Susitna X1 3,142 477 4,881 8,023 •Susitna X2 2,988 366 3,745 6,737 1,286 Double Escalation Capital and O&M Costs •Non-Susitna P1 3,650 602 6,161 9,811 •Susitna P2 3,881 503 5,148 9,029 782 Zero-Escalation in Fuel Prices •Non-Susitna V1 2,233 335 3,427 5,660 •Susitna V2 3,002 365 3,736 6,738 (1,078) High Escalation in Fuel Prices •Non-Susitna W1 4,063 643 6,574 10,367 •Susitna W2 3,267 403 4,121 7,388 2,979 1capital and O&M costs assumed to escalate at 1.4 percent 1982 to 2010 TABLE 18.12:SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS -NON-SUSITNA PLAN WITH CHAKACHAMNA 1982 Present Worth gf System Costs ($X 10 ) 1993 Estimated 1993-Net Plan ID Components 2010 2010 2011-2051 2051 Benefit---- •Non-Susitna with B 330 MW Chakachamna 2,038 475 4,861 7,899 Chakachamna 400 MW Coal-Beluga 200 MW Coal-Nenana 440 MW GT •Susitna C 680 MW Watana 3,119 385 3,943 7,062 837 600 MW Devil Canyon 180 MW GT TABLE 18.13:SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - SUSITNA PROJECT DELAY l ID $X 106 1982 Present Worth of System Costs $x 106 Net Economic Benefit Susitna Base Case C 7,062 1,176 One-year delay for Watana (1994)C3 7,105 1,133 One-year delay for Devil Caryon (2003)C4 7,165 1,134 One-year delay for Watana and Devil Canyon (1994, 2003)C5 7,230 1,138 1 -J 1 -/ I J TABLE 18.14:SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INDEXES OF NET ECONOMIC BENEFITS Index Values (1,J [\ \.J , 1 LJ u 11 BASE CASE ($1,176 MILLION) Fuel Escalation - High -Low Discount Rates - High-High (5%) -High (4%) -Low (2%) Susitna Capital Cost - High -Low Load Forecast - High -Low Non-Susitna (Thermal) Capital Costs - High -Low Capital and O&M Cost Escalation - High -Intermediate (Battelle) -Low Chakachamna (included in Non-Susitna Plan) Updated Base Coal Price Planned Delay in Susitna Project - One-year delay,Watana - One-year delay,Watana and Devil Canyon - Two-year delay,Watana and Devil Canyon 100 -44 9 223 23 178 137 19 168 73 67 109 134 71 167 96 96 97 1 High fuel escalation case provides net benefits equal to 253 percent of the base value,2.53 x $1,176,or $2,975. 2 Low fuel escalation case provides minus 92 percent of the base case net benefits,-.92 x $1,176,or -$1,082. ! Generating Purchases Utility Annual Capacity 1981 Predominant Tax Status Wholesale Provides Energy Demand MW at oaF Type of Re: IRS Electrical Wholesale 1980 UTILITY i Rating Generation Section 103 Energy Supply GWh IN ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET Anchorage Municipal Light and Power 221.6 SCCT Exempt *-585.8 Chugach Electric Association 395.1 SCCT Non-Exempt **941.3 Matanuska Electric Association 0.9 Diesel Non-Exempt *-268.0 Homer Electric Association 2.6 Diesel Non-Exempt *-284.8 Seward Electric System 5.5 Diesel Non-Exempt *-26.4 Alaska Power Administration 30.0 Hydro Non-Exempt -*- National Defense 58.8 ST Non-Exempt --- Industrial - Kenai 25.0 SCCT Non-Exempt --- IN FAIRBANKS -TANANA VALLEY, Fairbanks Municipal Utility System 1 68.5 ST/Diesel Exempt --116.7 Golden Valley Electric Association 1 221.6 SCCT/Diesel Non-Exempt --316.7 University of Alaska 18.6 ST Non-Exempt --- National Defense1 46.5 ST Non-Exempt --- IN GLENALLENIVALDEZ AREA Copper Valley Electric Association 19.6 SCCT Non-Exempt --37.4 TOTAL 1114.3 2577.1 1Pooling Arrangements in Force ,TABLE 18.15 - RAILBELT UTILITIES PROVIDING MARKET POTENTIAL [Ii '--~- 1I I [] 11 ']I, [J u u IJ PLANT LIST PLANT TYPE OF No.NAMEOF PLANT UTILITY OWNERSHIP 2 Anchorage No. 1 Anchorage Municipal Light and Power Municipal 3 Anchorage Anchorage Municipal Light and Power Municipal 6 Eklutna Alaska Power Administration Federal 7 Chena Fairbanks Municipal Utilities System Municipal 10 Knik Arm Chugach Electric Association, Inc.Cooperative 22 Elmendorf-West United States Air Force Federal 23 Fairbanks Golden Valley Electric Association, Inc. Cooperative 32 Cooper Lake Chugach Electric Association, Inc. Cooperative 34 Elmendorf-East United States Air Force Federal 35 Ft. Richardson United States Army Federal 36 Ft. Wainright United States Air Force Federal 37 Eilson United States Air Force Federal 38 Ft. Greeley United States Army Federal 47 Bernice Lake Chugach Electric Association,Inc.Cooperative 55 International Station Chugach Electric Association,Inc.Cooperative 58 Healy Golden Valley Electric Association,Inc.Cooperative 59 Beluga Chugach Electric Association,Inc.Cooperative 75 Clear AFB United States Air Force Federal 80 Collier-Kenai Collier-Kenai Municipal 81 Eyak Cordova Public Utilities Municipal 82 North Pole Golden Valley Electric Association,Inc.Cooperative 83 Valdez Golden Valley Electric Association,Inc.Cooperative 84 Glennallen Golden Valley Electric Association,Inc.Cooperative TABLE 18.16 - LIST OF GENERATING PLANTS SUPPLYING RAILBELT REGION TABLE 18.17:FORECAST FINANCIAL PARAMETERS $3.647 $1.470 billion billion $10.0 $5.42 million million $10.94 $4.41 15 percent of Operating Costs 10 percent of Revenue Project Completion - Year Energy Level - 1993 - 2002 - 2010 Costs in January '1982 Dollars Capital Costs Operating Costs - per annum Provision for Capital Renewals - per annum (0.3 percent of Capital Costs) Operating Working Capital Watana 1993 Devil Canyon 2002 Total 3 387 GWh 15 223 "6 616 " $5.117 billion $15.42 million $15.35 Reserve and Contingency Fund Interest Rate Debt Repayment Period Inflation Rate Real Rate of Increase in Operating Costs - 1982 to 1987 - 1988 on 100 percent of Operating Costs 100 percent of Provision for Capital Renewals 10 percent per annum 35 years 7 percent per annum 1.7 percent per annum 2.0 percent per annum Real Rate of Increase in Capital Costs - 1982 to 1985 -1986 to 1992 1.1 percent 1.0 percent annum annum I I i~I .,~:--- l.-........~_,;L---i ~-~ *************************************~.~~.~~~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*******~*****************************************************DATA10K WATANA-DC (ON LINE 1993-2002)-INFLATION 7%-INTEREST 10%-CAP COST $5.117 BN 23-FEB-82 *********************r.:****************~¥¥~~~¥~~~~~~*~~** * ******** ********* ************ ****** ***** ******* *** *** ****** *********** 1987 1983 1989 CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===($MILLION)==== 000 0.00 U.OO 0.00 14S.08 155.24 166.10 0.00 0.00 0000 73 521 466 520 51& 110 517 214 550 391 ENERGY GWH REAL PRICE-MILLS INFLATION INOEX PR ICE-MILLS -----INCQM~-----------------REVENUE LESS OPERATING COSTS OPtRATING INCOME ADD INTEREST EARNED 8N FUNDS LESS INT2REST ON SHORT T=RM DEBT LESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM D~BT 1935 o 0.00 120.72 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1986 o 0.00 135.59 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O.f) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 o0.00 177.73 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1991 a 0.00 190.17 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1992 a0.00 203.48 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O.C 0.0 1993 3387 3.65 217.73 1.94 26.9 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 3387 7.98 232.91 18.59 63.0 29.3 33.6 5.6 9.6 0.0 54U ~ET EARNINGS FRO~OPERS -----CASH SOURCE AND USE---- 54g CASH INCOME FRCM OP~RS 446 STATE CONTRIBUTION 143 LONG TERM DEBT DRAWDOWNS 243 WORCAP DEBT ORAWDOWNS 54q TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 320 LeSS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 44ti LESS WQRCAP AND FUNDS 260 LESS DEBT REPAYMENTS 141 CASH SURPLUS(DEFICIT) 24q SHORT TfRM DEBT 444 CASH RECOVERED -----BALANCE SHEET---------- 22~RESERVE AND CONT.FUND 371 OTHER WORKING CAPITAL 454 CASH SURPLUS RETAINED 370 CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 405 CAPITAL EMPLOYED 401 STATE CONTRIBUTION 462 ~EIAINED EARNINGS 555 DEBT OUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM 554 DEBT OUTSTANDING-LONG TERM 542 ANNUAL DEBT DRAWWDOWN$1962 543 CUM.DE8T DRAWWDOWN 11982 51~DEBT SERVICE COVER 0.0 0.0 403.7 0.0 0.0 403.7 403.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 403.7 ========403.7 403.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0472.7 0.0 0.0 472.7 472.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 876.4----------------876.4 876.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0479.7 0.0 0.0 479.7 479.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1356.1========1356.1 ======== 1356.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 O.C 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0499.5 0.0 000 499.5 499.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 185506========1355.0========135506 0.0 0.0 0"".0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 938.3 0.0 0.0 938.3 938.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2794.0===..:====2794.0========2794.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1550.4 0.0 0.0 1550.4 1550.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4344.3 ========4344.3========4344.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 1247.1 0.0 0.0 1247.1 1247.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5591.4----------------5591.4========5591.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0b7604 0.0 0.0 676.4 67b.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6267.8 ========6267.8========6267.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 333.1 0.0 98.0 431.1 333.1 98.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.5 41.5 0.0 6600.9========b698.9 ========6600.9 0.0 98.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 29.5 29.5 229.1 0.0 17.7 276.9 259.2 17.70.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.6 54.1 0.0 6860.1----------------b975.8----------------6830.6 29.5 115.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 Sheet 1 of 3 1 100%STATE APPROPRIATION OF TOTAL CAPITAL COST ($5.1 BILLION IN 1982 DOLLARS)I IIPorn TABLE 18.18 nUOld , *************************************~_~~~~_~_~__h~~~_~~~b~~__~******************************************** **************** *DATA10K WATA~A-DC (ON LINE 1993-2002)-INFLATION 7%-INTEREST 10%-CAP COST $50117 BN 23-FEB-82***************************************r~¥**~~~*~~~~****~~******~~*******************************************************~***** 1995 1996 1997 1~98 1~99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 CASH FLOw SUMMARY ===($MILLION)==== 73 tNERGY GftH 3367 3387 3387 3387 3387 3387 3387 5223 5414 5605 521 REAL PRICE-MILLS 8024 B038 8.74 8038 9.04 9.17 9.3Q 7066 8.84 8068 466 !NFLATION INDEX 249.28 266073 2B5.40 305.38 326075 349.62 374010 400.29 428.31 45B029 ~2J PRICE-MILLS l0055 22036 24.93 27013 29.53 32006 34079 30.64 37.86 390BO -----INCOME-----------------'16 REVENU~69 06 75.7 84.4 91 09 100.0 108.6 11708 160.0 204.9 22301 170 LESS OPERATING COSTS 32.0 35.0 3801 4106 45.4 49.6 54.1 91.1 9904 10B.5--------------------------------------------------------------------------------517 OPERATING INCOME 37.6 4008 4603 50.2 5406 5900 63.7 69.0 105.5 114.621~ADD INTEREST EARN~D ON FUNDS 602 6.7 7.3 B.O 807 9.5 10.4 1104 19.1 20.9 550 LESS INTEREST ON SHORT TERM DEBT 11.6 1204 15.3 1604 1707 IB.7 i9.B 21.0 33.8 36.3 391 LESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM DE8T 0.0 000 0.0 0.&0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------54g NET EARNINGS FROM OPERS 32.2 35.1 33.3 41.B 45.6 49.8 54.4 59.3 90.9 99.2 -----CASH SOuRCE AND USE---- 54i;CASH INCOME FROM OPERS 3202 35.1 3B.3 41.B 45.6 49.8 5404 59.3 9009 99.2~46 STATE CONTRIBUTION 363.1 362.1 30308 I02e03 117705 12040B 913.1 303.0 000 0.0 143 LONG TERM DEBT ORAWDOWNS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 Oou 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 249 WORCAP DEBT DRAWDOwNS 8.1 29.3 11.2 12.2 1006 1004 1203 12B.0 24.7 42.8-------- -------------------------------------------------------- ----------------54~TOTAL SOuRCES OF FUNDS 403.4 446.5 353.3 1082.4 123307 12650~979.8 490.3 115.6 142.0 320 lESS CA~ITAL EXPENOITURC 395.3 41102 342.1 1070.1 1223.2 1254.6 967.5 362.3 90.9 99.2 448 LESS HORCAP AND FUNDS Bo1 29.3 11.2 12.2 1006 1004 12.3 12B.0 24.7 42.8 ?'60 LESS DEBT REPAYMENTS 0.0 0.0 OoG 0.0 000 000 0.0 ·0.0 0.0 0.0------------------------------------------------ -------- ------------------------141 CASH SURPLUS(DEFICIT.0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 249 SHORT TERM DEBT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 000444CASHRECOVERED0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -----BALANCE SHEET----------22~RESERVE AND CONT.FUND 67.2 73.4 8001 67.4 9504 104.1 113.7 19103 208.8 22708 371 OTHER WOKKING CAPITAL 56.6 7907 84.2 89.1 91.7 93.4 96.2 14606 153 08 177.6 454 CASH SuRPLUS RETAINED 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 000 0.0 0.0 0.0370CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE i7255.4 7072.6 8014.7 90840B 10308.0 1156206 12530.1 12892.5 12983.3 13082.5 ~65 CAPITAL EMPLOYED =~131~:~==7;~5:1 ==8i1~:O ==~~~l:~=iO~~5:i =li7~o:2 =12140:0 =13230:3 =i3345:~=i3:81:~===============================================:======== =================:======461 STATE CONTRIBUTION 7193.7 757508 7879.6 3907.9 10085.4 11290.3 12203.4 12506.4 12506.4 12500.4 462 RETAINED E4RNINGS .61.6 96.8 135.1 17609 222.6 272.4 326.7 386.1 ~77.0 516.1 555 DE8T OUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM 123.9 153.1 10403 176.0 187.1 197.6 209.9 337.8 30206 405.4 554 ~EBT OUTSTANDING-LONG TERM 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 542 ANNUAL DEBT DRAWWOOWN $1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 O.C 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 543 CUM.DEBT URAWWDOWN $1982 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 000 519 DEBT SERVICE COVER 0000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .Sheet 2 of 3 100%STATE APPROFrRIATION OF TOTAL CAPITAL COST ($5.1 BILLION IN 1982 DOLLARS) TABLE 18.18 [UJ i 1-,--,---- L_'LH__'~-~'~----I ----.J ~,I *************************************~~-~~~-•••~--~~.~~--~~~~~~~-**************************************************************OATAI0K WATANA-DC ION LINE 1993-2002)-INFLATION 1%-INTEREST lot-CAP COST $5.111 BN 23-FEB-82 *************************************~~¥~~~~¥~~~¥¥~~~¥~~~~~~******************************************************************* 2007 2003 2009 CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===($MILLION)==== 6250 6472 6544 8.33 9.24 8.30 561.42 600.72 642.77 46.75 49.49 53.35 13 ~NERGY GWH 521 REAL PRICE-MILLS 466 INFLATION INDEX 52U PRICE-MILLS -----INCOME----------------- 51~REVENUE 170 LESS OPERATING CaSTS 517 OPERATING INCOME 214 ADD INTEREST EARNED ON FUNDS 55J LESS INTEREST ON SHORT TERM DEBT 391 LESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM DEBT 540 NET EA~NlNGS FROM JPERS -----CASH SOURCE AND USE---- 548 CASH INCOME FROM OPERS 44b STATE CONTRIBUTION 143 LONG TERM DEBT DRAWOOWNS 24a WORCAP DEBT DRAWDOWNS 549 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 320 LESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 44d LESS WORCAP AND FUNDS26GLESSDEBTREPAYMENTS 141 CASH SURPlUSIDEFICIT)249 SHORT TERM DEBT 444 CASH RECOVERED -----BALANCE SHEET---------- 225 RESERVE AND CONT.FUND371OTHERWORKINGCAPITAL 454 CASH SURPLUS RETAINED370CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 405 CAPITAL EMPLOYED 461 STATE CONTRIBUTION 462 RETAINED EARNINGS 555 OF.BT OUTSTAN~ING-SHORT TERM 554 DEBT OUTSTANDING-LONG TERM 542 ANNUAL DEBT DRAftWuOW~$1982 543 CUM.DEBT DRAWWDOWN $1982 ?1~DfBT SERVICe COVER 2005 6092 8.18 490.31 40.12 244.4 113.4 120.1) 22.8 40.50.0 108.2 108.2 0.0 0.0 36.4 144.7 108.2 36.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 248.1 193.2 0.013190..7========13032.0========12506.4 684.4 441.8 0.0 0.1) 0.0 0.00 2006 0141 8.27 524.69 43.39 266.'1 129.2 137.4 24.9 44.2 0.0 118.1 118.1 0.0 0.0 51.3 169.4 11a.1 51.30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 271.4221.7 0.013308.9========13801.9======:::=12506.4 802.5 4'}3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 292.1 141.0 151.1 27.1 49.30.1) 128.9 128.9 0.0 0.0 59.3 188.2 128.959.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 296.2256..2 0.013437.8========13990.2 =======:: 12506.4 931.4 552.4 0.0 1).0 0.0 0.00 320.3 153.9 166.3 29.6 55.2 0.0 140.1 140.7o.c 0..0 45.8 186.5 140.1 45.8 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 323.3274.9 0.013518.5 ======== 14176.1========12506.4 1072.1 598.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 349.1 168.0 181.1 32.3 59.80.0 153.6 153.6 0.0 0.0 45.9 199.4 153.0 45.90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 352.8291.2 0.0 13732.1========14316.1========12<;06.4 1225.7 644.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 2010 6616 8.35687.17 57.45 380.1 183.4--------196.7 35.3 64.40.0 167.6 167.6 0.0 0.0 52.0 219.6 167 ..6 52.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 385.1310.9 0.013899.7========14595.7========12506.4 1393 ..3 696.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 2011 6638 8.48 735.91 62.39 414.1 200.1--------214.0 33.5 69 ..60.0 182.9 182.9 0.0 0.0 37.1 220.6 182.9 37.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 420.3 313.4 0.014082.6========1411UI.3========12506.4 1570.3 733.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 2012 6660 8.57 787.42 67.48 449.4 218.4 231.0 42.0 73.40.0 199.7 199.7 0.0 0.0 41.2 240.8 199.7 41.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 458.7316.2 0.014282..3========15057.1========12506.4 1775..9 774.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 2013 6682 8.67 842.54 13.02 487.9 238.4 249.5 45.9 71.50.0 211.9 217.9 0.0 0.0 44.9 262.8 211.9 44.9 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 500.6319.2 0.014500.2========15319.9========12506 ..41993·.8 819.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 TOTAL 104826 0.00 0.00 0.00 4530.0 2202.0--------2328.0 412.4 746.60.0 1993.8 1993.8 12506.4 0.0 819.7 15319.9 14500.2 819.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 500.6319.2 0.014500.2========15319.9========12506.4 1993.8 819.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 Sheet 3 of 3 100%STATE APPROPRIATION OF TOTAL CAPITAL COST ($5.1 BILLION IN 1982 DOLLARS) TABLE 18.18 • I***********************************~**b********************~*******************************************************************DATAI0K WATANA-DC (ON LINE 1993-2002)-1$3.0 BN(SI982)STATE FUNDS-INFLATION 7t-INTEREST 10%-CAPCOST S5.117 BN 23-FEB-82 **************************************~**************************************************************************************** 1 I 1985 1986 :1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===(SMILLIONJ==== 73 ENERGY GWH 0 0 0 a 0 0 a 0 3387 3381521REALPRICE-MILLS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.74 34.38466INflATIONINDEX126.72 135.59 145.08 155.24 166.10 111.73 190017 203.48 217.73 232.97520 PR ICE-MILLS 0000 0000 0000 0000 0.00 0000 0.00 0.00 64.76 80.08 -----INCOME----------------- 516 REVENUE 0.0 000 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 219.3 271.2170lESSOPERATINGCOSTS0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.9 29.3 ~-~----------------------------- -------------------------------- ----------------517 OPERATING INCOME 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 192.4 241.9zi»ADO INT£REST EARNED ON FUNDS 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5..6 550 LESS INTEREST ON SHORT TERM DEBT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8391lESSINTERESTONLONGTERMDEBT0.0 0.0 000 000 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 154.0 183.4---------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------548 NET EARNINGS FROM OPERS 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 3805 54.3 -----tASH SOURCE AND US(---- 5403548CASHINCOMEFROMOPERS0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 000 000 000 38.5446STATECONTRIBUTION403.1 47201 479.1 499.5 938.3 1550.4 462.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 143 LONG TERM DEBT DRAWDOWNS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 784.1 75409 294.6 211.6248WORCAPDEBTDRAWOOWNS0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 9800 17.7------------------------ ------------------------ --------------------------------!j4~TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 403.7 472.1 419.7 499 ..5 93803 1550.4 124701 154.9 431.1 283.7 320 LESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 403.1 412.7 419.1 499.5 93803 1550.4 124101 15409 33301 259.2448lESSWORCAPANDFUNDS0.0 (l00 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 98.0 17.7260LESSDEBTREPAYMENTS0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 6-.8---------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------141 :ASH SURPlUS(DEFICITJ 0.0 000 000 0.0 000 0..0 0.0 0.0 000 000249SHORTTERMDEBT000 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0..0 0.0444CASHRECOVERED0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -----BALANCE SHEET---------- 61.6225~ESERVE AND CONTo fUND 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.5371aTHERWORKINGCAPITAL0000.0 0.0 C.O 000 0.0 0.0 000 41.5 5401 454 CASH SURPLUS RETAINED 000 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0310CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 403.7 876.4 1356.1 1855.6 2794.0 4344.3 559104 6346.3 6679.4 6938.6 ~=============== ================================================ =============:==465 CAPIrAL EMPLOYED 403.7 876.4 1356.1 1855.6 2194.0 434403 5591.4 6346.3 6111.4 7054.3:============::=======================================================:======:==461 STATE CONTRIBUTION .403.7 876.4 1356.1 1855.b 2194.0 434"'.3 4806.7 4806.7 480607 4806.7462RETAINEDEARNINGS0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 38.5 92.8555DEBTOUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 115.7554DEBTOUTSTANDING-LONG TERM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 784.1 1539.5 1834.2 2039.0 542 ANNUAL DEBT DRAWWDOWN 51982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41206 31100 f 135.3 90.8543CUM.DEBT DRAWWDOWN 51982 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 1t1206 783.6 918.9 100901519DEBTSERVICECOVER0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0000 0000 0.00 1.25 1.25 I, Sh:eet 1 of 3 $3 BILLION (1982 DOLLARS);STATE APPROPRIATION SCENARIO i 7%INFLATiON AND 10%INTEREST , I -'--~ TABLE 18.19 • ~c:::=1--L _'--~i-.i ********************~*****************************************************************************************~****************DATA10K WATANA-DC (ON LINE 1993-2002)-$3.0 ~M(i1982t STATE FUNDS-INfLATION 1%-INTEREST 10%-CAPCOST S5.111 aN 23-FEa-82******************************************************************************************************************************* J 1991 1998 1999 CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===(SMILlIONJ==== 3387 3381 3387 29.31 21.83 26.39 285.40 305.38 326.15 83.81 84.97 86.24 73 521466 :>20 516 170 511214 55? 391 548 ENERGY .GWH REAL PRICE-MIllS INfLATION INDEX PRICE-MillS -----INCOME-----------------REVENUE lESS OPERATING COSTS OPERATING INCOME ADD INTEREST EARNED ON FUNDS LESS INTEREST ON SHORT TERM DEBT LESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM DEBT NET EARNINGS FROM OPERS 1995' 3381 32.59 249.28 31.25 215.2 32.0 243.16.2 11.6 182.7 55.0 1996 333.7 30.81 266.73 li2.18 278.3 35.0 243.4 6.7 12.4 182.0--------55.1 283.8 38.1 245.7 1.3 15.3 181.2 56.6 287.8 41.6 246.2 8.0 16.4 1'30.3 57.5 292.1 45.4 246.6 8.1 11.7 119.3 58.4 2000 3387·25.04 349.62 87.54 296.5 49.6 246.99.5 18.1 178.2 59.5 2001 3387 23.79 314.10 89.00 301.4 54.1 241.3 10.4 20.0 171.0 60.7 2002 .5223 58.55 400.29 234.36 1224.0 91.1 1132.9 11.4 21.9 883.'" 239.0 2003 5414 55.54 428.31 237.89 1287.8 99.4 1188.4 19.1 34.7 895.7 271.2 2004 -5l:D 550.49· 458.29 231.37 1296.7 108.5 1188.2 20.9 36.3 891.5 281.4 -----CASH SOURCE A~D USE---- 548 CASH INCOME FROM OPERS446STATECONTRIBUTION 143 LONG TERM DEBT DRAWDOWNS -243 WORCAP DEBT DRAWOOWNS 549 TOTAL SOURCeS OF FUNDS 320 LESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 448 LESS WORCAP AND fUNDS 260 lESS DEBT REPAYMENTS 141 CASH SURPlUSlOEFICITt 249 SHORT TERM DEBT 444 CASH RECOVERED -----BAlANCE SHEET----------225 RESERVE AND CONT.FUND 311 OTHER WORKING CAPITAL 454 CASH SURPLUS RETAINED 370 CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 465 CAPITAL EHPlaYED 461 STATE CONTRIBUTION 462 RETAINED EARNINGS 555 0EBT OUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM 554 DEBT OUTSTANDING-LONG TERM 542 ANNUAL DE8T DRAWWDOWN S1982 543 CUM.DEBT DRAWWDOWN S1982 519 DEBT StRVICE COVER 55.0 0.0 368.9 8.1 432.0 416.4 8.17.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.2 56.6 0.0 7355.0========7418.8==:=====4806.7 147.8 123.9 2400.5 148.0 1157.7 1.25 55.7 0.0 427.7 29.3 512.8 475.3 29.3 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.4 79.7 0.0 1830.3========7983.4----------------4806.7 203.5 153.1 2820.0 160.4 1318.0 1.25 56.6 0.0 395.4 11.2--------463.1 442.9 11.29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 aO.1 84.2 0.0 8273.2========8431.5----------------4806.7 260.1 1b4.3 3206.4 138.5 1456.6 1.25 57.5 0.0 1163.0 12.2 1232.7 1210.5 12.2 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8104 89.1 0.0 9483.1========9660.3========4806.7 317.5 176.6 4359.4 380.8 1831.4 1.25 58.1t 0.0 1432.3 10.6 1501.3 1419.8 10.6 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4 91.1 0.0 10963.5----------------11150.6========4806.1 376.0 187.1 5780.8 438.3 2275.7 1..25 59.50.0 1604.7 10.4 1614.7 1654.5 10.4 12.0 -2.3 2.3 0.0 104.1 93.4 0.0 12618.0----------------12815.6----------------4806.7 435.5 199.8 7373.5 459.0 2734.7 1.25 60.7 0.0 1473.5 1203 1546.5 1527.9 1203 13.2 -6.8 6.8 0.0 113.1 96.2 0.0 14145.9 ========14355.8=======:4806.7 496.2 219.0 8833.8 393.9 3128.6 1.25 239.0 0.0 131.8 128.0--------504.8 362.3 128.0 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 191.3 146.6 000 14508.2 ========14846.1==::=::z== 4806.7 135.2 346.9 8957.1 34.4 3163.0 1.25 277.20.0 0.0 24.7 301.9 90.9 24.1 42.6 143.7 -9.1 134.6 208.8 153.8 0.0 14599.1===::===14961.1 ::====== 4806.7 871.8 362.6 891.,..6 0.0 3163.0 1.25 281.4 0.0 0.0 42.8 324.3 99.2 42.846.8 135.4 0.0 135.4 221.8 177.6 0.0 14698.3 ========15103.7 ========4806.7 1023.8 405.4 8861 ..1 0.0 3163.0 1.25 $3 BILLION (1982 DOLLARS)STATE APPROPRIATION SCENARIO 7%INFLATION AND 10%INTEREST Sheet 2 of 3 TABLE 18.19 I u_,,__! 1 I :***************************************~******************~:*****************************************************~~***~*********~ATAI0~WATANA-DC (ON LINE 1993-20021-$3.0 8N(S1982)STATE FUNDS-INFLATION 7%-INTEREST 10%-CAPCOST $5.117 BN 23-FEB-82******************************************************************************************************************************* I 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TOTAL CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===($MILLION)==== 73 ENERGY GWH 60'12 6147 6250 6412 6544 6616 6638 6660 6682 104826 521 KEAl PRICE-MILLS 43.82 40.97 38.08 34.79 32.53 30.45 28.74 27.13 25.63 0.00 466 INFLATION INDEX 490.37 524.69 561.42 600.72 642.77 687.77 735.91 787.42 842.54 0.00 520 PRICE-MILLS 214.89 214.98 213.79 208.98 209.12 209 ..41 211.54 213.62 215.95 0.00 -----INCOME----------------- 516 ~EVENlJE 1309.0 1321.4 1336.1 1352.4 1368.4 1385.3 1404.1 1422.6 1442.9 18656.4 170 LESS OPERATING COSTS 118.4 129.2 141.0 153.9 168.0 183.4 200.1 218.4 238.'"2202.0---------------- ---------------- ----------------------------------------517 OPERATING INCOME 1190.6 1192.2 1195.0 1198.5 1200.4 1202.0 1204.0 1204.2 1204.5 16454.4 214 ADD l"TEREST EARNED ON FUNDS 22.8 24.9 2701 29.6 32.3 35.3 38.5 42.0 45.9 412.4 550 LESS INTEREST ON SHORT TERM DFBT 40.5 44.2 49.3 55.2 59 ..8 64.4 69.6 73.4 77.5 148.6 391 LESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM DEBT 886.8 881 ..6 816.0 869.7 862.9 855.3 847 ..0 837.9 821.9 12013.6---------------- ---------------- -------- -------- ------------------------548 ~ET EARNINGS FROM OPERS 286.1 291.2 296.9 303.1 310 ..0 317.5 325.8 335.0 345 ..0 4104.6 -----C~SH SOURCE AND USE---- 543 CASH INCOME FROM OPERS 286.1 291.2 296.9 303.1 310.0 317.5 325.8 335.0 345.0 4104.6 446 STATE CONTRIBUTION 0.0 0.0 0..0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4806.7 143 LONG TERM DEaT DRAWOOWNS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9049.0243WORCAPDEBTORAWD014NS36.4 51.3 59 ..3 45.8 45.9 52.0 31.7 41.2 44.9 819.1-------------------- -------- ---------------------------------------- --------549 TOTAL SOU~CES QF FUNDS 322.5 342.5 356.2 349.0 355.9 369.5 363.6 376.1 389.9 18180.1 320 LESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 108.2 118.1 128.9 140.7 153.6 167 ..6 182.9 199.7 211 ..9 16115 ..9441LESSHORCAPANDFUNDS36.4 51.3 59.3 45.13 45.9 52.0 37.7 41.2 44.9 819.1 260 LESS DEBT REPAYMENTS 51.5 56.7 62.3 68.6 75.4 83.0 91.3 100.4 110.4 880.9------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------141 CASH SURPLUS(OEFICIT)126.3 116.4 105.6 93.9 81.0 67.0 51.6 34.9 16.7 963.5249SHORTTERMO:BT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0444CASHRECOVERED126.3 116.4 105.6 93.9 81.0 67.0 51.6 34.9 16.7 963.5 -----BALANCE SHEET----------225 RESERVE ANO CONT.FUND 249.7 271.4 296.2 323.3 352.8 385.1 420.3 1t58.7 500.6 500.6371OTHERWORKINGCAPITAL193.2 221.7 256.2 274.9 291.2 310.9 313.4 316.2 319.2 319.2 454 CASH SURPLUS RETAINED 0.0 0.0 0..0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0..0 0..0370CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 14306.5 14924.6 15053.6 15194.3 15347.9 15515.5 15698.4 15898.1 16116.0 16116.0 =~=:============:==:==::========================================================465 CAPITAL EMPLOYED 15248.3 15411.7 15605.9 15792.4 15991.9 16211.4 16432.1 16612.9 16935.7 16935.1 461 STATE CONTRI~UTION =f==============================================================================:4806.1 4806.7 4806.7 4806.7 4806.7 4806.7 4806.1 4806.7 4806.7 4806 ..7 462 RETAINED EARNINGS !1183.5 1358.3 1549.b 1758.9 1987.9 2238.5 2512.7 2812.8 3141.1 3141.1555DEBTOUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM 441.3 493.1 552.4 598.2 644.0 696 ..0 733 ..7 174.8 819.7 819.7554DiBTOUTSTANDING-LONG TERM ,8816.2 8759.5 8697.2 13628.6 8553.2 8410.2 8378.9 8278.6 8168.1 8168.•1 542 ANNuAL DEBT ORAWWDOWN $1982 f).0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3163.0'543 CUM.aEBT DRAWWDOWN $1982 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0 3163.0519DEBTSERVICECOVER1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 0.00 ~heet 3 of 3 $3 BILWION (1982 DOLLARS)STATE APPROPRIATION SCENARIO .7%INFLATIONiAND 10%INTEREST ._::_1_. TABLE ia.t • , ,~--L.-L--L -'-_. ---,.L--J --~' .--, '-----.J ~.....-J *******************************************************************************************************************************DATA10K WATANA-DC (ON LINE 1993-2002)-$2.3 BN (S1982)STATE FUNDS-INFLATION7%-INTEREST 10%-CAP COST $5.117 8N 23-FEB-82******************************************************************************************************************************* 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 199~ CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===(SMILLION)==== 73 ENERGY GWH 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 3387 3387521REALPRICE-MILLS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.85 58.76466INFLATIONINDEX126.72 135.59 145.08 155~24 166.10 177.73 190.17 203.48 217.73 232.97 520 PRICE-HILLS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 110.73 136.90 -----INCOME-----------------516 REVENU~0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 375.0 463.6 170 LESS OPERATING C~STS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26..29.3---------------- -------- ---------------------------------------- ----------------517 OPERATING INCOME 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 348.1 43~.3214ADOINTERESTEARNEDONFUNDS0.0 0.0 000 000 000 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 550 LE:SS INTEREST ON SHORT TERM DEBT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 391 LESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM DEBT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 303.1 331.9------------------------ ---------------- -------------------------------- --------548 NET EARNINGS FROM OPERS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.0 98.3 -----CASH SOURCE AND USE----548 CASH INCOME fROM OPERS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45~0 98.3446STATECONTRIBUTION403.7 472.7 47907 49905 938.3 138.4 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 143 LONG TERM DEBT DRAWDOWNS 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 812.0 1328.3 890.4 288.1 113.2248WORCAPDEBTDRAWDDWNS0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 17.7------------------------ -------- ---------------- -------- ------------------------549 TOTAL SOURCES OF fUNDS 403.7 472.7 479.7 499.5 938.3 1550.4 132803 890.4 431.1 289.2 320 LESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 403.7 472.7 479.7 499.5 938.3 1550.4 1328.3 890.4 33301 259.2448lESSWORCAPANDFUNDS0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 17.7260LESSDEBTREPAYMENTSn.o 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2------------------------ -------- ---------------------------------------- --------141 CASH SURPLUS(DEFICIT)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 249 SHORT TERM DE8T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 444 CASH RECOVERED 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 0.0 0.0 -----BALANCE SHEET----------225 RESERVE AND CONT.FUND 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000 56.5 61.63713THERWORKINGCAPITAL0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.5 54.1 454 CASH SURPLUS RETAINeD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0370CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 403.7 876.4 1356.1 1855.6 2794.0 4344.3 5672.6 6563.0 6896.1 1155.3 ======== ================================ =========~==============================465 CAPITAL EMPLOYED 403.7 876.4 1356.1 1855.6 2794.0 4344.3 5672.6 6563.0 6994.1 1271.0================================================================================461 STATE CONTRIBUTION 403.7 876.4 135601 1855.6 2794.0 3532.4 3532.4 3532.4 3532.4 3532.4 462 RETAINfD EARNINGS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.0 143.3 555 DEBT OUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 115.7 554 DEBT OUTSTANDING-LONG TERM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 812.0 2140.2 3030.7 3318.7 3~19.6 542 A~NUAL DEBT DRAWWDOWN $1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 456.8 698.4 437.6 132.3 74.3 543 CUM.DEBT DRAWWDOWN S1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 456.8 1155.3 1592.9 1725.2 1799.5 519 DEBT SERVICE COVER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 1.25 $2.3 BILLION (1982 DOLLARS)MINIMUM STATE APPROPRIATION SCENARIO 7%INFLATION AND 10%INTEREST Sheet 1 of 3 TABLE 18.20 I 5605 55.83 458.29 255.86 0.0 3827.2 1.25 5414 59.90 428.31 256.58 0.0 3827.2 1.22 5223 63.57 400.29 254.47 35.1 3821.2 1.Z2 3387 38.96 374.10 145.75 375.7 3191.5 1.25 3387 41.29 349.62 144.36 440.1 3415.8 1.25 419.4 2975.7 1.25 362.4 2556.3 1.25 120.6 2194.0 1.25 33fl7 52.11266.73 139.00 142.9 2073.4 1.25 3387 55.38249.28 138.06 i 131.0 '1930.5 1.25 467.6 470.8 476.3 480.2 484.5 488.9 493.6 1329.0 1389.0 1434.0 32.0 35.0 38.1 41.6 45.4 49.6 54.1 91.1 99.4 108.5-------------------------------------------------------- -------- ----------------435.6 435.8 438.1 438.6 439.1 439.3 439.5 1237.9 1289.6 1325.56.2 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.4 11.4 19.1 20.9 11.6 12.4 15.3 16.4 17.7 18.1 19.8 21.0 33.8 36.3 330.6 329.3 327.8 326.2 324.4 322.4 320.3 982.5 994 ..1 988.8---------------- -------- ------------------------ -------- -------- ----------------99.5 100.8 102.3 104.0 105.8 107.7 109.9 245.8 280.8 321.3 99.5 100.8 102.3 104.0 105.8 107.1 109.9 245.8 280.8 321.30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 326.5 381.2 344.2 1106.6 1310.3 1538.8 1405.6 142.8 0.0 0.0 3.1 29.3 11.2 12.2 10.6 10.4 12.3 128.0 24.7 42.8 -~-------------------------------------- -------- --------------------------------434.2 511.3 457.7 1222.11 1486.6 1651.0 1527.8 516.5 305.5 364.2 412.6 467.2 430.2 1192.1 1456.3 1624.8 1491.6 362.3 90.9 99.28.1 29.3 11.2 12.2 10.6 10.4 12.3 128.0 24.7 42.813.5 14.8 16.3 17.9 19.7 21.7 23.9 26.2 53.9 59.3 -~---------------------- ---------------------------------------- ----------------0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 136.0 162.80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 136.0 162.8 67.2 73.4 60.1 87.4 95.4 104.1 113.1 191.3 208.8 227.85b.6 79.7 84.2 89.1 91.1 93.4 96.2 146.6 153.8 171.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17567.9 8035.1 8465.3 9657.9 11114.2 12739.1 14230.7 14593.0 14683.8 14783.0 =';;;i:;==;i;;:;==;~;;::==;;;::;=ii;~i::=i;;;~:~=i:;;;:;=i:;;;:;=i;~;~::=i;i;;:; ='3532::=:3532::==3532::==3532:4 ================ ============:::========-=-===========3532.4 3532.4 3532.4 3532 ..4 3532.4 3532.4 i 242.8 343.7 446.0 550.0 655.7 763.4 873.3 1119.1 1263.9 1422.4 !123.9 153.1 16tt.3 116.6 181.1 197.6 209.9 331.8 362.6 405.it3792.1 4159.0 4486.9 5575.6 6926.2 8443.3 9825.0 9941.5 9887.6 9826.2 ENERGY GWH REAL PRICE-I'll llS INflATION INDEX PRICE-MIllS -----INCOME----------------- itEVENUE LESS OPERATING COSTS ,JPERAT IlliG INCOME ADD INTEREST EARNED ON FUNDS LESS INTEREST ON SHORT TERM DEBT LESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM DE8T NET EARNINGS FROM OPERS 13 521466 520 516 170 517 214 550 HI ::i4tl -----CASH SOURCE AND US(---- ~43 CASH INCOME FROM OPERS446STATECONTRIBUTION 143 LONG TERM DEBT ~RAWDOWNS 243 WORCAP DEBT DRAWDOWNS 549 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 320 LESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE448LESSWORCAPANDFUNDS 260 lESS DEaT REPAYMENTS 141 CASH SURPlUS(DEFICITJ 249 SHORT TERM DEBT 444 CASH RECOVERED -----BALANCE SHEET----------225 RESERVE AND CONT.FUNO 371 JTHER WORKING CAPITAL 454 CASH SURPLUS RETAINED 370 CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 465 CAPITAL EMPLOYED 461 STATE 'CONTRIBUTION 462 RETAINED EARNINGS 555 DEBT OUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM 554 DEBT OUTSTANDING-LONG TERM 542 ANNUAL OEaT DRAWWDOWN $1982 543 CUM.DEBT DRAWWDOWN £1982 513 DEBT SERVICE COVER ,.I******************************************************************************************~************************************DATAIJK WATANA-DC (ON LINE 1993-2002)-$2.3 BN(£19S2)STATE fUNDS-INFLATION 7~-INTEREST 10~-CAP COST £5.117 BN 23-FEB-82******************************************************************************************************************************* I I 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===(~MILLION)==== 3387 3387 3387 49.27 46.43 43.78 285.40 305.38 326.75 140.63 141.79 143.06 SHeet 2 of 3 $2.3 BILLION (1982 DOLLARS)MINIMUM STATE APPROPRIATION SCENARIO I 7%INFLATION !AND 10%INTEREST TABLE lB.20. ~~ L-L-L-r-L_~·L--:___,~:=J ___.J *~:*********************************************************~*******************************************************************DATAI0K WATANA-DC (ON LINE 1993-2002)-$2.3 SN (S1932)STATE FUNDS-INFLATION 1%-INTEREST lOt-CAP COST $5.111 BN 23-FEB-82******************************************************************************************************************************* 104826 0 0 00 0.00 0000 496504 TOTAL 21929.6 2202.0 lt965.4 353204 10107.8 819.7 1972706 412.4 146.614428.0 3532.4 3126.1 819.1 8942.2 3821.2 3821.2 0.00 50006319.2 0.0 16200.7========17020.5==::==;;::=: 19lt2503 16200.7 819.11165.5--------123903 0.01239.3 ltOl.9 000 0.0 44.9 0.0 3827.2 1025 446.8 211.9 44.9 139.9 44.1 000 44.1 1341.1 45.9 11.5908.2 2013 401.9 1580.1 23804 6682 28.07 842054 236049 500.6319.2 000 16200.7 ========17020.5========3532.lt 3126.1 819.1 8942.2 62.4 0.06204 1341.4 4200 13.4920.9 389.2 0.0 0.0 4102 430.3 19907 41.2 12701 1559.8 218.4 389.2 2012 666029.15 181042 234.23 3532.4 336803 114.8 9082.1 0.0 3821.2 1.25 ======== lt58.1 316.2 000 1598208======:c=16751.6 1541.3 200.1 377.6 31106000 0.0 3107 415.3 182.9 37.7 115.6 79.1 000 19.1 134102 3805 69.6 932.5 2011 6638 31055 735.91 232.21 3532.4 3041.5 733.7 920902 0.0 3827.2 1.25 ======== 420.3 313.4 000 15783.2========1651608 3532.4 2143.0 69600 9324.8 36701 419.0 167.6 5200105.1 36101 000 000 52.0 661633.46 681.77 230.15 2010 9404 0.094.4 0.0 3821.2 1025 16296.2 385.1310.9 0.0· 15600.2 .152206 183.4--------1339.2 35.3 64.4 94300 ---------------- ======== 108.4 0.0 108.4 403.4 153.6 45.9 95.5 1505.6 168.0 351.5 357 0 5 0.0 0.0 4509 1337.6 3203 59.·8 95205 353204 2410 03644.0 9429.9 0.0 3821.2 1025 352.8 291.2 0.0 151t32.6========16016.6======== 348.9 0.0 0.0 45·.8 34809 394.1 140.1 45.886.8 3532.4 2221.2 598.2 9525.4 0.0 3827.2 1.25 121.3 0.0 121.3 323.3274.9 0.015219.0 15811.2 1489.6 1'53.9--------1335.1 29.6 5502961.2 ======== ======== 341.0 2907 200B 2009 CASH FLOW SUMMARY ===($MIlLION)==== 6250 6412 6544 41099 38.32 35.80 561.42 600.72 642011 235075 230.18 230.09 1413.3 141.0 341.0 000 0.0 59.3 133.1 0.0 133.1 400.2 128.q 59.378.9 1332.3 27.1 49.3 969.1 3532.4 1993.7 ,552.4 9612.3 000 3827.2 1.25 296.2 25602 0.0 15138.3 15690.1======== ======== 1458.6 129.2 333.8 0.0 0.0 5103 6141 45.23524.69 237.31 2006 143.9 0.0 14309 1329.4 24.9 44.2 916.3 385.0 11801 51.311.8 333.8 3532.4 1785.8 493.1 9691.2 0.0 3827.2 1.25 271.4 221.7 0.0 1500904 15502.5======== =====::= 1446.3 11804 321.3 0.0 0.0 36.4 1327.8 22.8 4005 982.8 153.8 0.0 153.8 363.1 10802 36.465.2 32103 2005 6092 48.42 490.31 237.42 0.0 3827.2 1.25 353204 1595 09 441.8 9163.0 248.7 19302 0.0 14891.3========15333.1==:===== ENERGY GWH REAL ?RICE-MIlLS INflATION INDEX PR ICE-MILLS -----INCOME----------------- REVENUE LESS OPERATING COSTS OPERATING INCOME ADO INTEREST EARNED ON FUNDS LESS INTEREST ON SHOKT TERM DEBT lESS INTEREST ON LONG TERM DEBT N~T EARNINGS FROM QPERS -----CASH SOURCE AND USE---- CASH INCOME FROM OPERS STATE CONTRI3UTION LuNG TERM DEBT.DRAWDOWNS WORCAP DEBT ORAWDOWNS TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 13521 466 520 516 110 517 21ft 550 391 543 543 446 143 248 549 320 LESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 448 lESS WORCAP AND FUNDS260lESSDEBTREPAYMENTS 141 CASH SURPLUS«DEFICIT) 249 SHORT TERM DEBT 44~CASH RECOVERED -----BAlANCE SHEET---------- RESERVE AND CONT.FUND OTHER WORKING CAPITAL CASH SURPLUS RETAINED CUM.CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EMPLOYED STATE CONTRIBUTION ~ETAINED EARNINGS DEBT OUTSTANDING-SHORT TERM DEBT OUTSTANDING-lONG TERM ANNUAL DEBT DRAwwDOWN $1982 CUM.DEBT DRAWWOOWN $1932 DEBT SERVICE COVER 461 462 555 554 225 371 454 310 465 542 '543 51CJ Sheet 3 of 3 $2.3 BILLION (1982 DOLLARS)MINIMUM STATE APPROPRIATION SCENARIO 7%INFLATION AND 10%INTEREST TABLEIS.20 [iii TABLE 18.21:FINANCING REQUIREMENTS - $BILLION For $3.0 billion State Appropriation Scenario Interest Rate 10% In flation Rate 7~~ 1982 Actual Purchasing Power --rbillion 1985 State Appropr iat ion 0.4 0.3 86 "0.5 0.4 87 "0.5 0.3 88 "0.5 0.3 89 "0.9 0.6 90 "0.5 0.9 91 "1.5 0.2 Total State Appropriation 4.8 3.0 1990 Guaranteed or G.O Bonds 1 " " 0.8 0.4 2 ""0.7 0.4 3 ""0.3 0.1 Total Watana Bonds 1.8 0.9 1994 Revenue Bonds 0.2 0.1 5 ""0.4 0.1 6 ""0.4 0.2 7 ""0.4 0.1 8 ""1.2 0.4 9 ""1.4 0.4 2000 ""1.6 0.5 1 ""1.5 0.4 2 ""0.1 0.1 .J ], 1 ;) J Total Susitna Bonds 9.0 3.2 11 I ) rl lJ TABLE 18.22:FINANCING REQUIREMENTS - $BILLION For $2.3 billion State Appropriation Scenario Interest Rate 10% Inflation Rate 7~~ 1982 Actual Purchasing Power --rbillion (]1985 State Appropriation 0.4 0.3 86 "0.5 0.4 87 "0.5 0.3 88 "0.5 0.3r~l 89 "0.9 0.6 90 "0.7 0.4 Total State Appropriation 3.5 2.3 1990 Guaranteed or G.O Bonds 0.8 0.5 1 ""1.3 0.7 [2 ""0.9 0.4 3 ""0.3 0.1 Total Watana Bonds 3.3 1.7 -------------------------------------------------------- 1994 Revenue Bonds 0.2 0.1 5 ""0.3 0.1l16""0.4 0.2 7 ""0.3 0.1 8 ""1.1 0.4 9 ""1.4 0.4 2000 ""1.5 0.4 1 ""1.4 0.4 2 ""0.2 Total Devil Canyon Bonds 6.8 2.1 (1_J u u u Total Susitna Bonds 10.1 3.8 BASIC PARAMETERS OF RISK GENERATION MODEL .CAPITAL COSTS (REAL 1982 $billion) Below 3.1 Below 3.6 Below 4.3 Below 5.1 COAL PRICE ESCALATION (%REAL) ) I ), J ) ) ~) ) r ) ) I ) ) ) J ) l 'fA8LE-,8;23-_I . .15 1.00 .33 11 - 13 -4% .25 5.0 to 2000 2.2 thereafter .90 .43 . 9 -11 .34 -3% .32 .73 7-9 .50 2.6 to 2000 INTEREST RATES % 1.2 thereafter .33 -2% .46 INFLATION'RATE DIFFERENCE FROM INTEREST RATE .10 o .25 5-7 PROBABILITY PROBABIL1TY PROBABI L1TY PROBABIL1TY i,..__'L __L __',--. i~__=::J LOAD FORECAST ALTERNATIVE CAPITAL COST PUEL COST ESCALATION RESULT 10 PROBAB I L1TY LONG-TERM COST PRESENT WORTH .09 5,661 .03 10.321 .03 5.991 .01 8,492 .03 4.590 .03 8,746 .01 4.856 .02 7,460 .01 9,253 .06 6.878 .18 8.238 .06 8,858 .09 10.637 .01 7.184 _ .03 11.272 ~3 1~194 .01 13.742 .06 10.859 .01 7.624 .02 10.503 .01 $15.058 .02 1Ui69 .03 7.313 ~c 1.00 T26 .02 6.101 .01 4,412 B-~~06 7.915 .03 5,489 .t HIGH TOIHIGH.04 MEDIUM Ib2~LOW I03%I04HIGH.20 .60 MEDIUM .12 /<.<,T05 T06 T07LOW.04 / <,TOBT09 TlOr&HIGH .12 /-,III%TI2 TI360MEDIUM.60 .60 MEDIUM .36 /Tl4~<,TI5 Tl6"b LOW .12 / -,B~ HIGH .04 /Tl9 T20<,I21IxLOW.20 .60 MEDIUM .12 /T22 "<.-,T23 T24 ","HIGH T25LOW.04 ~o MEDIUM T26,<'1t LOW T27 FIGURE rs.t -PROBAB' L1TY TREE - SYSTEM WITH ALTERNAT,VES TO SUSITNA 11~lm I 1 I ), ], ) ) j 1 j ) r-~-L_L __-,-- 502 .0025 10,683 532 .Q150 "1,062 5IT6 .0120 8,390 507 H_H .0016~8,961 _ 508 .0025 8,050 509 .0060 7.161 510 .0045 11,6.!!~_ 5 II .0075 10,868 512 .0180 9.758 513 .0090 10,1~L _~__H _ 514 .0150 ---!!..247 ~u__ 5 15 .0360 8,347.~~_ 516 .0046 8;908 _ 5 17 .0.(176 8,008 518 .0180 7,108 519 .0015 11,414 522 .0030 10,126 503 .0060 ...,9"',7""8=4 _ 504 .0030 _--',10"",1=-:9"==0,---_ 505 .00fiO 9,290 537 .0075 7,884 520 .0025 10,614 521 .00609.614 533 _.1800___6.161 529 .0375 7,388 538 .0125 6,99153903006097 ----- 540 .0150 _7,543 541 .0250 _6,650 528 .0226 8,371 542 .0600 5.757 531 .0460 7,974 524 .Q120 8.326 525 .0015 8,886 526 .0026 7,986 523 .0050 9,221 530 .0000 6,477 527 .0060_'_7.081 534 .0226 7,660 535 .0376 6,738S36..!IBOfi...-_~8-=-27=-------- RESULT LONG-TERM COSTm..PROBABILITY PRESENT WORTH 501 .0015 $11,684 543 .0075 7.331 544 .0125_u__~,437 _ 545 .0300 5.543, _ L =1.000 FIGURE 18.2 -PROBABILITY TREE -SYSTEMWITH SUSITNA I~~Im I SUSITNA CAPITAL COST FUEL COST ESCALATION ALTERNATIVE CAPITAL COST LOAD FORECAST HI(.;H - HIGH .QI ~MEDIUM,25 "-lOb LOW.~ HIGH 04 ,50 MEDIUM m /-,"<,LOW ,01 / -, 0 HIGH ,03 /rv -,~HIGH 20 .60 MEDIUM 12 _50 MEDIUM OF / ~-, 'rJ 0 LOW ,03 /-, HIGH ,01 / "%LOW ,04 ,SO MEDIUM ,02 / !""-/.~, LOW ,01 / cl <, 'Vi i HIGH 15 /-,I I~/ , 60 MEDIUM 60 1.0 MEDIUM ,60 ,50 MEDIUM ,30 / "<.<, 'b LOW -'5 / "- HIGH oe /-,%LOW .20 10 MEDIUM 20 50 MEDIUM .10 / ~-, HIGH LOW ,05 %5 MEDIUM ""0 LOW t J .~ ) ) J 1 .J .J ~ ! I 1 L-I~_-L...--_--, 14 12 10 e °.... x °8°o..... ~ en...en 0 (J E 6a- ll) l- e"c 0 ..I 4 2 r .J ...--r r--r-/ Non-Susitna Plan-\r ~/~ r J I ,.r ~.......r- ~. .tIr ................ Susitna Plan J---,!il~~~~~~~111~~~11j1 o .1 .i .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 Cumulative Probability FIGURE 18.3 -SUSITNA MULTIVARIATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - LONG-TERM COSTS VS CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY L-i _ '--- 1.0 .9 .8 .7 >~:c .6 III.cea. Q).5 .::...III "3 .4E :lo .3 .2 .1 ->- / / / / / ./V //' / , ..../V (4500) (3500) (2500) (1500) (500) 0 500 Net Benefit -$x 106 (1982 $) 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 FIGURE 1B.4- SUSITNA MULTIVARIATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS -CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY VS NET BENEFITS 11~lm I _!_- r----l __ ~~-311 VI. SOFTWARE REVISIONS X. TRANSMISSION SYSTEM AND EMERGENCY GENERATION START I I I SUMMARY NOTES I I,~ dJ v. TR ANSFORMATION ASSESSMENTS JI't1t IX. INITIAL COMPUTATION AND INTERPRETATION ~ ~ XI. UPDATE AND FEEDBACK \I; -JJ II. RISK LIST DEVELOPMENT -. RISK LISTS ~ IV. RISK ASSESSMENTS .- ASSESSMENT DOCUMENTS -311 VII. CONSEQUENCE IRESPONSE CRITERION ASSESSMENTS I DOCUMENTATION -31 VIII. REVIEW AND REVISE XII. FINAL COMPUTATION ~ AND INTERPRETATION I RISK ANALYSIS REPORT "RISK ANALYSIS STUDY METHODOLOGY FIGURE 18.5 lJ [I..J QUESTION: WHAT MAJOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ARE INVOLVED? WHAT KIND OF WORK is GOiNG ON FOR A GIVEN CONFIGURATION '? WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE INITIATING MECHANISMS WHICH COULD INFLUENCE ESTIMATED COSTS OR COMPLETION TIMES? WHAT MAJOR PORTIONS OF ANY GIVEN CONFIGURATION ARE SUBJECT TO RISK REALIZATION 1 IF A PARTICULAR RISK MAGNITUDE IS REALIZED.WHAT POSSI BLE CONSEQUENCES CAN OCCUR? HOW CAN THESE CONSEQUENCES BE MEASURED? WHAT IMPORTANT ASSUMPTIONS AND LI MITATIONS MUST BE ESTABLISHED TO PERMIT A REASONABLE ANALYSIS AND TO DRAW IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS? STUDY ELEMENT: ELEMENTS OF THE RISK ANALYSIS FIGURE 18.6 @FOR ANY GIVEN DAMAGE LEVEL,THREE CRITERION VALVES ARE ESTIMATED AND FIT TO A MODIFI ED BETA DISTRIBUTION. ®IF A RISK EVENT OCCURS, IT CAN CAUSE A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE DAMAGE LEVELS,EACH WITH A PARTICULAR PROBABI L1TY OF OCCURENCE.IF RISK MAGNITUDE ® OCCURS, THE PROBABIL1TY IT WILL CAUSE MODERATE DAMAGE IS THE VALUE OF®ON THE DIAGRAM. CD A SERIES OF DISCRETE RISK PROBABILITY LEVELS EXISTS FOR EACH RISK- ACTIVITY COMBINATION. THE ANNUAL PROBABILITY OF EACH IS DETERMINED. MAXMINMODE INCREASING OF RISK t PROBABI L1TY OF A PARTICULAR RISK MAGNITUDE t ® PROBABI L1TY OF A PARTICULAR CRITERION RISK PROBABIL1TY OF A PARTICULAR DAMAGE LEVEL IF A PARTICULAR RISK MAGNITUDE IS REALIZED fj 1/ i ) lJ il L] INCREASING CRITERION VALVE \)(J STRUCTURAL RELATIONSHIP FOR HANDLING RISK ACTIVITY COMBINATIONS,DAMAGE SCENARIOS AND CRITERION VALUES FIGURE 18.7 ,~_.L-L _ ----' 1.0 0 W I.LW .9 OUX WW .8 <.!)I-~O .7 ZZ W...J~...J .6 W-CL~ I-W .5 e:(I-W::r:e:(:::>.4I-~...J >-I-~1-(1).3 ...JW O -I-W ~U~.2 m~u00- 0::0::0 .1 CLCL Z 0 I IEXPECTEDVALUE ~.C=IIHIGHII ESTIMATE90.25%~I ~I f"1 ~~ROJECT ESTIMATE) I ..>-:-r I ~8=IIL6~1I ESTIMATE / I I I /I I-:I I ILI I -'1 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 PERCENTAGE OF FINAL DIRECT COST ESTIMATE WITH CONTINGENCIES CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR WATANA PROJECT COST FIGURE 18.8 II L-_L-.....i.,_~.l..-.-_~ ATE I I --I ~.----EXPECTED VALUE ~~..C= HIGH ESTIM)91.5°/c;.~~ I ~PROJECT ESTIMATE)I V _/I I l}!JS =IILOW"IESTIMATE -:I I /'I /I /'I I V I".~I II ..J..J 1.0 3:W .9I-C)(1)~Oz .8 Uw U ..JO::.7 <X:W ::,:)Q. I-.6 UO <X:WI-.5~~z- 1-0 .4z >-0 .3I-W ..J W -Umx .2 <X:Wm 01-.1 0::0 Q.Z 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 PERCENTAGE OF PROJECT ESTI MATE CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF DEVIL CANYON COSTS FIGURE 18.9 rr:::L__ 1.0 .9 oz .8-CI 1LI .71LI ~1LI 1LI :::>.6 b ~.5z CI I.L.1LIot-09-«>-u .3t-CI -'Z rn .2«m 0 .10:: 0... 0 I I ~ESTIM~TEEXPECTED VALUE ~ 9.06% H ~ :lV :/A =(PROJECT ESTIMATE) /~ I fts=IILOW;"ESTIMATE /'I I V I I /'II I /II I 4'I 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 PERCENTAGE OF FINAL DIRECT COST ESTIMATE WITH CONTINGENCIES CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 18.10 [i] i_,__'_L-__•L__l"..-.--' ,, ~--, , --.......-'---" 1.0 .90 IJ...80 0 >-U .70zw:::)w OU .60WZ a::w IJ..O:: 0:: W:::).50 >8-0~.40 ...J :::) ~ :::).30' U .20 .10 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 RATIO OF ACTUAL COST TO IINITIAL"ESTI MATE 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 HISTORICAL WATER RESOURCES PROJECT COST PERFORMANCE (48 PROJECTS) FIGURE 18.11 L..._-__I .IL_~L_".--.l.~~""';~---<__:~i 1.0 .90 I.L..80 0 >-U .70zw wu ::::>z Ow .60Wo:: 0::::::> I.L.U U .50wO> ~.40 ..J ::::> :E .30::::> U .20 .10 FIGURE 18.12 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 RATIO OF ACTUAL COST TO IIINITIALII ESTIMATE COMPARISON OF SUSITNA RISK RESULTS WITH HISTORICAL WATER RESOURCES PROJECT COST PERFORMANCE (48 PROJECT ) 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 r-r-r-r-r-: ,----:--- '--~~_1__1 _:__i ~--j J " ~~ I V,/ / )~= SCHEDULE ESTIMATE ,/INCLUDING A ONE YEAR CONTINGENCY /V / _/V ~B=SCHEDULE ESTIMATE WITHOUT CONTINGENCY»>I .9 1.0 .1 o (!) .z 8is., ww~.7 ww:::>b.J .6 Z::J I.L.0 .5 Ow ~~.4_0.J-_0 ~Z .3 moa::.2 c, -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 MONTHS FROM SCHEDULED COMPLETION 15 20 WATANA SCHEDULE DISTRIBUTION EXCLUSIVE OF REGULATORY RISKS FIGURE 18.13 _1_-I I •L·I ~'__'~~_-.-1 __~I .1 .6 .7 1.0 .9 .8 (!) Z ow ~ X LLl W....3 .5 ~~ u,0 .4 Ow >-~.3t-u ::JOiiiz .2«-rno 0::a. o - --------»>I---""" /I-'" ..J:·~SCHEDULE ESTIMATE /INCLUDING A ONE YEAR CONTINGENCY JV ./B= SCHEDULE ESTIMATE WITHOUT CONTINGENCY /V / --'V -30 -20 -10 o 10 20 30 40 MONTHS FROM SCHEDULED COMPLET ION WATANA SCHEDULE DISTRIBUTION INCLUDING THE EFFECT OF REGULATORY RISKS FIGURE 18.14 [L-I .'L,__i ~'--'i l..---...J _,__I -j '.I , --~'_---i 1.0 oz .99-0wo:: We:::{OwX>-w .980::....WOn..z IJ..OOO~.970>- ....0 ...JW-....me:::{ .96e:::{om_ OoO::zn.._ ----~-"~...... ......~",...... sS'"~ \.-0",.",-'(,.\oy ~~v·r",0 ,/~EXPECTED VALUES:/0\0 /v.:,0 TOTAL LOSS 0.06961 I /50%REDUCTION 0.09171// /f I I ANCHORAGE / f o 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 DAYS PER YEAR OF REDUCED ENERGY DELIVERY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR DAYS OF REDUCED ENERGY DELIVERY TO ANCHORAGE FIGURE 18.15 '---L-I 1-- '----L.-........:.--i --~'~'_~I :.--i __~I ~~..--J --~___I 1.0 (!)z 0 UJUJO:::.99O<{ XUJ UJ>- 1-0::: oUJzo..98 lL.cn O~ >-0 1-0 .97 ...JUJ (DI- <{<{ (DO 0- 0:::0 .96o.~ /'~ / ,/ /EXPECTED VALUE: .08116 /I IFAIRBANKS I f o 2 :3 4 5 6 7 8 DAYS PER YEAR WITH NO ENERGY DELIVERY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR DAYS PER YEAR WITH NO SUSITNA ENERGY DELIVERY TO FAIRBANKS FIGURE 18.16 \ \ \ Tanana [J (] 0 65 130 KILOMETERS IJ I I I 0 65 ''''M''''.[J I FIGURE 18.17 . lJ lJ lJ lJ lJ u FIGURE 18.18 - SERVICE AREAS OF RAI LBELT UTILITIES 111m I (J lJ u u (] LOCATION MAP l,EGEND \1 PROPOSED DAM SITES ----PROPOSED 1:38 KV WNE --EXISTING l.INES 20 0 1J';1lti;\i it!"_Ii ('I:if SCAl.E IN MILES 20 60 11::l%:l:,i":=::3C..,~!':~jl'C,':I u.s.Government Alaska Power Administration -Eklutna University of Alaska Alaska Power Administration -Eklutna 1. Does Not Include Self Supplied Energy from Military Installations and The University of Alaska 11 \.J A ENERGY SUPPLY (Based on Net Generation 1980) B GENERATING FACILITIES (Based on Nameplate Generating Capacity 1980) o RELATIVE MIX OF ELECTRICAL GENERATING TECHNOLOGY -RAILBELT UTILITIES -1980 FIGURE 18.19 [iii Regenerative Cycle Combustion Turbine (111 MW- 12%) Diesel (60.6 MW - 6%) Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine (139 MW - 14%) 1. Does Not Include Generation by Military Installations and The University of Alaska C NET GENERATION BY TYPES OF FUEL (Based on Net Generation 1980) Oil 2% u u 11u IJ (J [-1 10,000 rI J 9,000 I) \ I 8,000 1 7,000 6,000 11 :e-II $: C) ;:5,000 ~., c W Ir-----.. I 1iIIIII'I1II'lIIII'I-__J Note: OGP·5 Program Increases Usable Output at Two Year Intervals (J 4,000 Energy Deliveries From Susitna.> 3,000 ....II....~-------Watana Alone ---------<+01-------Watana And Devil Canyon ------.. 2,000 I)u u 1,000 u IJ 1992 1995 2000 Years 2005 2010 FIGURE 1020 - ENERGYDEMAND AND DELIVERI'S FROM 'USITNA IA~lm I L __L--...--~. '~I_-L._L..-- I WATANA ONLY IN 1994 1 LEGEND 300 Energy Cost of Best Thermal Option 250 -. • Energy Cost of Susitna Option Operating Costs of Thermal Plant in Use in 1993 Extended to 1994 Shaded Area Represents Plant Operating in 1992 Displaced by Watana • 1 Growth System Energy it for 1994;4,829 GWh 5,000 FIGURE 18.21 -ENERGY PRICING COMPARISONS -1994 4,000 Area Represents Annual ODE from Existing Genera -Common to Both Su 3,0002,000 Annual Energy Output GWh 1,000 jjjj\Area Under This Line is Annual Cost of Best Thermal Option F::[(Including Investment Costs) 1111------------------------1 dtt:I [Area Under This Line is Annual Cost of Susitna Option 1~~~~ttt -l ~Area Under This Line is Annual ............:Operating Cost of Existing Capacity 1993/4 (Avoided Costs of Fuel and O&MOnly) . ,rating Costs ting Plant sitna and mal Options MediulT Forecai o I .:.-.:.:.:.-....•:'1'••••••·············································1········;.;.;.;.;.;.;.;.;.1".;.;.;.;.;·;·;·:,.;·····························t.·.·. 50 200 ..cs:.:.:~ :E en...150en 0o >-'".. '"cw 100 SYSTEM COSTS AVOIDED BY DEVELOPING SUSITNA COMPARED WITH BEST THERMAL OPTION IN MILLS PER UNIT OF SUSITNA OUTPUT IN CURRENT DOLLARS Rev. 1 380 360 340 320 300 :c ~280..... ~ ~260 '"Q) C,) ';: 0..240'tlc III '".... '"2200 (J >Cl... Q)200cw 180 160 140 120 L _ ~. It~ ~lr#II#I COST SAVINGS FROM SUSITNA INCREASING ~OVER WHOLE LI FE OF PROJECT .l ll# ,...l1li" Increasing Thermal Fuel i~ Cost Avoided S .# ~# -lIfIlIIIIl ••-....II1IIII1IIl1liII1II,~.-~~~~~~-#.~ -#~,~ J J /..-Avoids Cost of a Further 200 MW Coal Fired Generating Unit I/II•~l1II."""'"Avoids Cost of 2 x 200 MW Coal Fired Generating Units Watana on Stream in 1993100 94 5 6 7 8 9 2000 01 02 03 Years Devil Canyon on Stream in 2002 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11 12 13 FIGURE 18.22 - SYSTEM COSTS AVOIDED BY DEVELOPING SUSITNA [i] ~'-- rWATANA &DEVIL CANYON IN 2003 400 300 .c $: ~ ~ ~ t!200o (,J ~ Q)ew 100 i, ,LEGENDI'I Area Under This Line isAnnual Cost of Best Thermal OptionI-'(Including Investment Cost)l1li '"Energy Cost of Best Thermal Option :'\.• Energy Cost of Susitna Option:.....I11III __.. ::..-Operating Costs of Thermal Plant in Use ::::.in 1993 Extended to 1994 Ill,............i riWWI f:;:'.;.;",;.~::::.~.:,'"::::::m'Operati.. [:[~[t[l[~[t[l~t~t[~[l[l[~[~[~~t~t Im __,r Area Under This Line isAnnual Cost of Susitna Option ::i:~·~:~'~:i;.A.f;i:_1.11111110•••1 •••1111 •••811.111111181111 ••11 DluaD.IID.IIDI 1111.1 ••DB ••••I.DID D1.1 a I.D.D.I.I.D.1.DII 111.108.101 Dill•••BI.I 1.111l1 !!:!! 1,000 '2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000. Annual Energy Output GWh FIGURE 18.23 - ENERGY PRICING COMPARISONS- 2003 1~1(1 1_'__L__L--'---- 200 Mill Rate Cost Best Thermal Option 0%Inflation,3%Interest ---------------- COST SAVINGS NO STATE APPROPRIATION SCENARIO 100%DEBT FINANCING -----------_..._- ,/ /#f I COST SAVINGS GROWING OVERIWHOLE OF SUSITNA LIFE 7%Infl.don,\'nte.."I AJ.mrJ 1 .. __~~~fjji!:i.~."~''''''''~''''!~ .~' 260 160 140 120 380 320 180 360 340 .c ~280 ';;; ~ en Q) .2.. 0- "C 240c C'Cl :l 8 >-E' ell C W Rev. 1 ;.;.;.;.;.;::::::::::::; 100 f::::'~:::::::l iliL&Negligible Financing Deficit with Zero Inflat FIGURE 18.24 -ENERGY COSTCOMPARISON - 100%DEBT FINANCING 0 AND 7%INFLATION Years 94 5 6 7 8 9 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11 12 13 [i] L...-...- COSTSAVINGS GROWING OVER WHOLE OF SUSITNA LIFE Devil Canyon Completed with $7.2 billion ($2.3 bn 1982)of Revenue Bonds 1994 - 2002 STATE APPROPRIATION OF $3.0 BILLION WITH 7%INFLATION AND 10%INTEREST Watana Completed 1993 with $1.8 billion ($0.9 bn 1982)of Bonds 1991 - 93; Cover of 1.25 at 80 Mills/kWh in 1994 lrrrll I Mill Rate Cost If BestThermal Option ~If If..-.~.. ~# ~# _----•••IIlI-~------1 I Susitna wholesale energyprice falls as~--energy increases to 2009 and rises~~.......slowly thereaftert··~!~!i~!i!!I!~iliJ::.···~.,~ II I J1---- Rev. 1 360 340 320 300 280 :c ~260.....:a :E-;240 Q) CJ.;: CI. "C 220c l'lI CI>...CI>8 200 >l:ll.. :g 180w 160 140 120 100 FIGURE 18.25 -ENERGY COSTCOMPARISON - STATE APPROPRIATION $3 BILLION (1982 $) Years 94 5 6 7 8 9 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11 12 13 l.__~~'--l.__L-.'---... •131209 2010 11080706 Devil Canyon Completed with $6.8 billion ($2.1 bn 1982)of Revenue Bonds 1994 - 2002 05040302 ~~~# IIII I Mill Rate Cost I It BestThermal Option --I l/Il'COST SAVINGS GROWING OVER ~.WHOLE OF SUSITNA LIFE~#,~ 11# 11# ~ 9 2000 018 Susitna Pricing Restricted to, Maximum of Best Thermal Cost 7 Years FIGURE 18.26 -ENERGY COST COMPARISON.$2.3 BILLION (1982 $) -MINIMUM STATE APPROPRIATION 6 WatanaCompleted 1993 with $3.3 billion ($1.7 bn 1982)of Bonds 1990 - 93; Cover of 1.25 at 137 Mills/kWh in 1994 MINIMUM STATE APPROPRIATION OF $2.3 BILLION WITH 7%INFLATION AND 10%INTEREST 5 Susitna wholesaleenergyprice falls as...__-..I /1 energy increases to 2010 and rises _----.....:-:-:.:::::::::::.:-:-:-:-...slowly thereafter ,*/***.......iill;;;;;lli;;;ill~'~~,,~II~:~~~~~~;;;'~8~if~~~:;1;lM~BN···.,,; Ji Susitna Wholesale Energy Price,--- 94 Rev. 1 380 360 340 320 300-.c ~280...... ~ ~ U>260 Qlu.;: 0.. "t:l 240c ell U>...U> 0 220(.) >I:').. Ql C 200w 180 160 140 120 100 l;__i,__ Rev. 1 380 360 340 320 300 .c ~280--::£ ~260 '"CD U';: Q.240 "Cc <Il '"~220o >O'l :v 200cw 180 STATE APPROPRIATION OF $1.8 BILLION WITH 7%INFLATION AND 10%INTEREST Mill Rate Cost Best Thermal Option III IIIIICOST SAVINGS GROWING OVERIWHOLE OF SUSITNA LIFE /t# II Susitna Price Tracks Cost of BestThermal Option Until 1.25 Debt ServiceCover Established 140 FIGURE 18.27 -ENERGY COST COMPARISON-PRICING RESTl:tICTED 94/95 AND 03/04 WatanaCompleted with $4.4 billion ($2.4 bn 1982)of Bonds 1989 - 93. Inadequate Cover Until 1996 [i]131209 2010 110807060504 Devil Canyon Completed with $6.9 billion ($2.1 bn in 1982) Inadequate Cover Until 2004 03020120009876 Years 594 100 120 L,;L.----> SENATE BILL 646 PROPOSAL - 100%STATE FINANCING "...lIlIl1lllll•1II- ~.... "..... ".~~ t"~ IIIIIII .IIIJi • Susitna Wholesale Energy Price COST SAVINGS GROWING OVER WHOLE OF SUSITNA LIFE Devil Canyon Completed 2002 J~#.'lr~lllll~II li ~# !IlIIIl··__IIIlIIIIlIJ ~ 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FIGURE 18.28 -ENERGY COST COMPARISON MEETING SB 646 REQUIREMENTS WITH 100%FINANCING 9897 MillRate Cost Best Thermal Option Price 96 Years 9594 380 360 340 320 300 s:280~..:.:-. ~ :E 260 III CII U';: 240Q. "tl Cco III...220III 0 (.) >-Cll..200CIIew 180 160 140 120 100 l _L__ •.._.~-j 220 .....:-:.:. 'iIIIICOST SAVINGS GROWING OVER#,__JI W1HOLE OF SUSITNA LIFE 'A ~ i~~~~~~~iiiiii~~~~~i~~iiiii ~~~~~i~~}:~;;:::.;.:.......... . . Operating Costs, Renewals and Interest on Working Capital Mill Rate Cost Best Thermal Option SENATE BILL 646 "MINIMUM"APP.ROPRIATION OF $3.0 BILLION WITH 7%INFLATION AND 10%INTEREST 260 280 340 300 320 :c 240 ~-~ ~ 200 1312111009080706 DEBT SERVICE Devil Canyon Completed with $7.5 billion ($2.3 bn in 1982)of Revenue Bonds 1994 -2002 03 04 05 Years 029920000198 .Susitna Wholesale Energy Price 97969594 180 FIGURE 18.29 -ENERGY COST COMPARISON MEETING SB 646 REQUIREMENTS WITH $3.0 BILLION APPROPRIATION Operating Costs,Renewals and Interest on Working Cap.i~~.I.:.;.:. ::::'!illt:it~~~i~f~~f~f~ 801::;::::::::::::Watana Completed 1993 with $1.9 billion :}}}~ :;:;:;:;:::::;:($0.9 bn in 1982)of Bonds 1991 -1993 ;:::;:;:;:::;: 60 li~~~~~~~i~~~~~i~~~~~~~~3R~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~i~i~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ SPECIFIC RISK I: RISK OF BOND REQUIREMENT OVERRUN [1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 ~IO.6 :g 0.5.coet 1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Forecast Watana Borrowing Requirement in $2.3 bn Appropriation Case / 1.0 1.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 ) J Bond Requirements for Watana in $bn (1982) FIGURE 18.30 - BOND FINANCING REQUIREMENTS SPECIFIC RISK II:IMPAIRMENT OF STATE CREDIT /Minimum Cover Requirement u [j 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 >-0.6.'!: :c 0.51lI.ce 0.40- 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.25 2.0 3.0 4.0 Coverage on Bonds Issued for Watana FIGURE 18.31 -DEBT SERVICE COVER Ii 11 II SPECIFIC FINANCING RISK III:EARLY YEAR NONVIABILll"Y I ForecastWatanaCost as %BestThermal / 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Watana Unit Cost as %of Best Thermal 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -20 -10 0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 .e-0.6 :g 0.5.cee,0.4 FIGURE 18.32 -WATANA UNIT COSTS AS PERCENT OF BEST THERMAL OPTION IN 1996 AGGREGATE RISK:POTENTIAL NET OPERATING EARNINGS FIGURE 18.33 -CUMULATIVE NET OPERATING EARNINGS BY\2000 Forecast in $2.3 bn State Approriation Case / 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 Cumulative Net Operating Earnings in $ bn (1982) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 >0.6.t:: :c 0.5IV.c 0...0.4c.. 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 [J I) LJ Il lJ 11 [J U 19 -CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The proposed development of the hydroelectric potential of the Upper Susitna River Basin is technically and economically feasible.Finan- cing of this large undertaking is also feasible with appropriate state funding assistance.Although the project will result in irreversible environmental impacts,the consequences of these impacts are not severe and adequate measures are economically available to mitigate against them.It is therefore recommended that a FERC license application be filed for construction of the project. The findings set out in this Feasibility Report lead to the conclusions and recommendations discussed in the following sections. 19.1 - Conclusions It is concluded that: -The projections of demand for electricity in the Railbelt by ISER and Battelle'Pacific Northwest Laboratories,in December 1981, are rea- sonably representative of possible load growth scenarios.Projected energy demand in 2010 under a medi urn growth scenari 0 is 7,791 GWh, requiring 1,537 MW of generating capacity; -The proposed Susitna project of 1,020 MW in 1993/94 at Watana and 600 MWat Devil Canyon in 2002,represents the optimum basin development plan from technical,economic,and environmental perspectives and use of the available resource.This plan is also economically and en- vironmentally superior to other thermal and hydroelectric alternative generation plans; -The proposed 1,020 MW Watana development will be capable of generat- ing an average 3,450 GWh of electrical energy and the 600 MW Devil Canyon project 3,340 GWh.Firm energy for each development is estimated as 2,630 GWh and 2,770 GWh,respectively.Susitna will represent more than two thirds of projected total Rai lbelt system capacity in 2010; -The only known seismically active faults in the region of the pro- posed project sites are the Denali Fault 40 or more miles to the north,the Castle Mountain Fault 65 miles or more to the south,and the Benioff Zone 31 mi les or more beneath the sites.The proposed project structures can be designed to safely withstand the maximum earthquakes which can be predicted to occur on these faults,or as a result of other possible seismic events,such as a Terrain earthquake or reservoir induced seismicity; -The construction of a 1,020 MW hydroelectric project at Watana in- volving a 885-foot-high earthfill dam and appurtenant facilities, 19-1 can be accomplished within all applicable requirements of technical feasibility,safety,and environmental impact in 1993/94; -The construction of a 600 MW hydroelectric project at Devi 1 Canyon involving a 645-foot-high concrete arch dam and appurtenant facili- ties,can be accomplished within all applicable requirements of technical feasibility,safety,and environmental impact by the year 2002 or ear l i er; -An access road constructed from the Parks Highway south of Hurricane to Gold Creek and thence south of the Susitna River to Devil Canyon and north of the rlver to Watana,is the best compromi se of techni- cal,economic,and environmental tradeoffs; - A transmission line system consisting of up to five 345 kV lines westward from the sites to Gold Creek, with 2 lines north to Falr- banks,and 3 lines south to Anchorage via a cable crossing at Knik Arm,is the best compromise of technical,economic,and environmental tradeoffs; -The environmental consequences of construction and operation of the Susitna project are not unduly severe.The most important impacts will occur on downstream fisheries;and adequate mitigation measures to compensate for these and other impacts can be incorporated in the project without adversely affecting the viability of the develop- ment;and -The Watana project,cost i ng $3647 ml 11 i on in 1982 doll ars and the Devil Canyon project,costing $1480 million in 1982 dollars,repre- s~nt an optimal plan for meeting projected Railbeltelectric energy needs through 2010 and beyond.A minimum state appropriation of $2.3 billion in 1982 dollars,with residual financing from bonds,repre- sents an appropriate mechanism for obtaining the necessary funds to construct the project,which will realize an 11 percent return on the state's investment. 19.2 -Recommendations It---is recommended ttratr: -The state authorize the filing of a FERC license application for construction of the project by September 30,1982,with the objective of receiving such license by December 31,1984.Environmental and engineering studies necessary to provide additional information in support of this application and development of mitigation plans, should be continued as necessary; -Planning,permitting,and related logistical support activities should be initiated as soon as possible for construction of a pioneer access road from Gold Creek to Watana to commence in mid-1983; 1 ,.J j "-1.- , 1 ] 1 1 J -j 1 I j \--' -\ I I"l -I'') 1 1 II [) (J I] II U I] fl IJ [] lJ lJ U U IJ LI I ',J -Planning,permitting,and related logistical support activities should be initiated as soon as possible for geotechnical exploration of the relict channel,riverbed,and construction material borrow areas; -Planning,permitting,and related logistical support activities should be initiated in fiscal 1983 for geotechnical exploration and engineering for the Watana project; -Detailed design of the Watana Project and associated facilities should commence in fiscal 1983; - A decision to construct the Watana Project should be reviewed period- ically in light of additional engineering,cost,environmental and financial information generated during the design phase;and -If a decision is taken to proceed with the project,discussions should take place and agreement in principle be reached with Railbelt utilities on the form of contractual relationships under which Susit- na output should be committed for sale. 19-3 [I 11 u U I] SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ACCESS PLAN RECOMMENDATION REPORT APPEND IX A-D [1 [] 11 [) [ I I) [I II .[1 [ 1 [I I) IJ U [) lJ 1ST OF APPENDICES A -IDENTIFICATION OF ACCESS ALTERNATIVES B -ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES C -PREFERENCES OF NATIVE ORGANIZATIONS D-RELATIONSHIP TO CURRENT LAND STEWARDSHIP,USES AND PLANS I 1II APPENDIX A IDENTIFICATION OF ACCESS ALTERNATIVES II n Fig~re A.3 Route Plan:Access Plan 17 - Denali A.2 Statement of the Susitna Hydroelectric Steering Committee (dated November 5,1981) Figure A.l Route Plan:Access Plan 13 - North Figure A.2 Route Plan:Access Plan 16 - South Table A.l Access Plan Costs Comments by Phase 2 Engineering BiddersA.ln ~l [] ~] n ~J [J I ! l ) ~J u [J [1 [ 1 II 11 11 f]I , 11 I] I j APPENDIX A.I July 29,1982 Gentlemen: The Power Authority is currently engaged in final deliberations leading to a selection of a preferred access route.This is the route that will be reflected in the FERC license application.We have provid- ed three (3) options to our Board of Directors,and some information concerning those options.We will supplement that information in mid August,and hopeful ly the Board will make a selection at their meeting later that month. Basically,the thre~'options presented involve access from the West on the South side of the Susitna River;access from the West on the North side of the Susitna River; and access'from the Denali Highway directly to the Watana Dam site. In recognition of the fact that the preferred access decision will not be made until after the deadline for proposal submittals,do not try to adjust your proposal to react to these three options.Instead. continue to use the guidan,ce of our Rf?Amendment No ..3. There are numerous issues associated with this decision.For the most part~we feel we have adequate data in hand.However,we would like to invite all proposers to comment on one particular aspect;the question of limited versus open access to the construction sites. A number of voices are concerned with maintaining to the maximum degree possible the pristine wilderness character of the Susitna Basin. They are apprehensive that free access to the project site will have primary and secondary impacts that would be detrimental to a preserva- tion objective.On the other side of the issue,there 1s a sentiment that maximum transportation flexibility is necessary if the project is, to successfully avoid undue logistics problems.As a result of pro- longed evaluations and debate,the issue is now su~r1zed as a choice between having project access from the existing road netwo~or only via railroad.The limited access voices view access via ratlroad as facili- tating access control,particularly if the objective is to have highly restricted access.,Again, the opposing view is,the railroad is subject to too many uncertainties to be a reliable supply gateway. !I I II I i \.1 11 r 1iI 11.I I I I I I I II..J We would welcome your comments on the issue of a railroad gateway only versus a connection to the road network.If you choose to comment. we would appreciate it if you would back up your position with examples and other tangible information as might be suitable.We will provide . your input to our Soard of Directors for their consideration.We weuld like to include these inputs in the briefing package mentioned above;in order to do that,we need to hear from you prior to August 9~1982. . Let me emphasize that you are under no obligation to respond to this invitation.Further~this invitation is a matter totally unrelated to the Request for Proposals activities,and will not have any influence an those proceedings. Sincerely, FOR THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR David D.Wozniak Project-Engineer DDW:sf Bechtel Civil &Minerals, Inc. Engineers-Constructors Fifty Beale Street San Francisco.California Mail Address:P.O.Box 3965, San Francisco.CA 94119 August 4,1982 Mr.David N.Wozniak Project Engineer Alaska Power Authority 334 West 5th Avenue Anchorage,Alaska 99501 Dear Mr.Wozniak: RECEIYEa.... AUG 51912 'AJ.}SKA POWER AUTHORI'IJ I 1 I I I I I i II II 12110 With reference to your July 29,1982 letter regarding a "railroad gateway"to the Susitna Project,we can offer the following comments: o Construction of a railroad would probably cost in the order of twice as much as a road ($120 million vs $60 million, approximately). a More significantly,a railroad would take at least one year longer to build which would,of course,impact costs for all of the rest of the project. o Once the railroad is in place,we would not anticipate significant negative impacts on project construction.The Churchill Falls Project in Labrador was built essentially "at the end of a railroad",although that railroad was in place prior to project construction and all that was needed was a relatively short connecting access road. We can think of no reason why effective access limitations could not be imposed during construction on a road built into Watana,restricting usage to authorized personnel.Such limitations are in place on the James Bay Project in Quebec,utilizing.gates,guard posts,etc.,and are working effectively. This should minimize impacts on the wilderness character of the area during the construction period.These limitations could,of course,be continued during the period following construction completion. For the period following construction,as a related matter,APA might wish to consider the possibility of using single-status accommodations as an alternative to the family village concept now planned for housing the permanent operations staff..Under such an alternative,operators could be flown in and out on a scheduled basis such as "10 days on,6 days off".This would place their families in existing metropolitan areas,would eliminate the need for a family-status operators'village with full support infrastructure,and would therefore eliminate the need to maintain open on a full-time basis an access road (or railroad)to the site from Gold Creek. !I i J 11 [] I I j t j 12111 Bechtel Civil &Minerals,Inc. Mr.David N.Wozniak August 4,1982 Page Two There is a family-status operations village,which was originally used for construction,in place on the Churchill Falls Project.At James Bay,the original intent was also to use a family-status village for operations,and some permanent village-type facilities were therefore constructed early so that they could be used by contractors and the owner's supervisory staff. Subsequently,after analysis,Hydro Quebec decided that it would be preferable both from the cost and employee morale standpoints to operate this remote project with single-status personnel only.It is now ant~cipated that permanent apartment-type units will eventually be constructed.At present, operators are flown.in and out,and are housed single-status in the family village.This·experience emphasizes the importance of considering these alternatives early in the final developmental phase of the Susitna Project. I hope our comments are helpful to you.We look forward to submitting our definitive proposal for the Susitna Project Phase II engineering services on Monday,August 16th. \ John A.Peterson Business Development Manager Hydro Projects JAP:yt I 1 I R.W BECK AND AsSOCIATES,INC ENGINEERS ANDCONSULTANTS P.O.BOX2400 SITKA.AlASKA 99B35 FILENO.HH-OOOO-BD-SW A4-2 Mr.David D.Wozniak Project Engineer Alaska P.ower Authority 334 West 5th Avenue Anchorage,Alaska 99501 Gentlemen: TOWERBUILDING 7THAVENUEATOLl~~Y~E IV EO SEATTLE,WASHINGTO~5fuf"" 206·622·5000 AUG 91982 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY ao,BOX6B18 KETCHIKAN.AlASKA 99901 August 6,1982 Subject:Limited Versus Unlimited Access to Susitna Project Site We are pleased to comment on what we agree is a most'important decision that needs to be made by the Power Authority.There is no question that the SusitnaProject could be built with only the railroad'to handle all materials,equipment and supplies but the logistics of using only the railroad would add to scheduling problems,require load sLze limitations,do away with competitive haul rates,and result in cost increases.,.. Several of our people have long experience records in the construc- tion field especially in work outside the lower forty-eight states.None of them can recall a project close to the size of Susitna that did'not utilize every form of transportation available and in addition none recall a site that did not have some available truck haul.If .the highway did not exist we doubt that it would be built just for this project.With only the short 'access and the fact that the highway leads to both Anchorage and Fairbanks,however,it is logical and prudent to make the connection.While access from the Denali Highway may be less expensive to construct,the all weather access from Parks Highway is measurably shorter from the Anchorage supply base. Limiting the access to the project would in fact be putting a restraint on all operations of the prime contractors,supply contractors, project managers,camp operations and especially on the local contractors who are accustomed to using their own hauling equipment.This restraint would add millions of dollars to the cost,and could possibly delay the·on-line dates of the units.Recent construction and operation of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline project demonstrates the desirability of road access for logistical and other supplies. With a population at the site between 2,000 and 4,500 workers for several years the turnover coupled with the "R and R"traffic into the cities of Anchorage and.Fai·rbanks will be enough to make a r oad'mandatory.Getting people to work and live in the camp will be more difficult if they know their only access to the outside is by rail. Mr.David D.Wozniak - 2 - August 6,1982 u II While air service by fixed wing aircraft will be supplied,there will be a continuous need for parts and supplies on a day by day basis that can be handled most efficiently by truck.Also air service to the site would be limited because of inclement weather. Even though the area is closed off after completion of the project there is no reason that access from the highway should not be available during the construction period.Once the project is complete the.access could be closed. We believe that our wilderness should be preserved but we are also of the opinion that a project such as Susitna should be made available for every visitor and taxpayer to see.Projects such as these are monuments to man's ingenuity and to hide them from all but a few doe~not seem to fit our democratic system. Very truly yours, R.W.BECK AND ASSOCIATES,INC • ../James V.Williamson \J Vice President JVW/vla Gibbs S Hill.Inc. August 8,1982 Mr.iric Yould Executive Director Alaska 'ewer Authority 334 west 5th Ave. Anctlorage,Alaska 99501 Dear Mr~YGuld: Refel'9llce is made to your letter of July..2.9.1982."larding project..access Hd more specifically·to the question of ·open'"versos ltlimtecfl access. '".access it.,.the Dena 11 YighwaY ~1cn ..iscertiiily desirable frem a CQrae:t5'1"standpoint to have good bigfrMly access fr'an tile cOBstruetion sites all ttle·way to tlIe"Parks Kigllway ortne Denali Highway.several reaSORS may be sited: a)Road access will anow the contractOf's and the oemer" 1:0 transport goOds independent of·the railroad. The railroad has not _n particularly reliable in the past..Road access.will allow the contractors and owner .-ximmn f1eJ(ibni~to sdledule shipments"·aad as 1"equired,and not wRen 'tfley!!!1 be saipped.to fit the rail road schedule-.Read,access w11 1 anow st.ipment.by La (less tkan truckload)lots of day.to-da,y requ;f'ements'. For example.a:to1m.truck or-trucks wauld daily shuttel parts.-minor equipment.small tools and-exf:leRdables from Andiorage to the-site.The peeatest need fo1"this service _uld be urUe....in tile job before a good ivwentory is warehoused.at the site..but normally such a senice continues throughout the ·work... b}·If Sllimitedaccess-wins out..APA sttould build a ran/true" c:lfqIot a fillf m1'1es towards the site fY"OOl the mainline. This ·!IIIill eAta'il clearing aRd grad1ag of a suntantia:l area fw siding aRd waNttwses.tdtidl 'Will ave some effect..em·the- -,"stiDe wil~. e)Both 1..1.)and b)abeve'would M!SIIlt.inttigiHlr.costs if the li.llritad access optien~dns aut. el)Ia case of eeJ'1S~,deR.it..,be necessary to·evacuate injured Of'-sick,persons from.the site and.weather-will Rot pentit flyiag•.it..uld be".lldato".to beNt!:road access·by ambu:tance to the _in .reads .. .e)l'rauS,ortatioR in and out of families pet 'Single.mm·living at.tbe sita 1IIOUld t:M!dicta facilitated ay connections to roa4s..·do you.handle this otbenrise?Fly everyone in od ouU Trat'8sport them by bus to the rail1iepot aAd then by tl'".l'iR?This would be var:y awkward and not maG(e for a hiI4JP.Y liYi.ng situation'for either families.or $11'91e persons. ..........'.'.:.... August a,1982 ............:"..............-.....,,_..-.._" .' ~;. .'Com:]u.si~~..'............-,....." ';;;";;;O;...........ij3ilt[iDiol~il~.re Hsirale to have a conlM!C.tion to the road network fnm the standpoints .of f1exibilit,y~ecoftl)i'(ly.,eme'gency and ease of,living..'It would .,~ar ttat tile AM,could achieve:tliis i1ftd still limit access to tile site. This·cOlItd easn...,be handled.~y QStablishing manned checkpoint just off'·the ma:in highwi4J and allow only authOJ"ized vehicle accsss to the site..This was done an the Alyeska Pr.ojet:t and an numerous other projects with gcod results... Very truly yours, .... './.. 11 I I !I I J I, I IIi '...1 I ) ..1 'Gibbs Eo:Hill.Inc. August 9$1982 Mt';.Eric,Yould- Exeeut1ve:Dir«tor Alaska Power Authority 334 west 5ttl ~enue, Anchorage,Alaska:99501 Dear Nt'.Yould: Reference is made ttl your-letter-Of July zgt-.19B!..and:oUf,':'reply, of August 8,1982....Please'adcl the'followhag as a ret:oiIIIRmQ'tirm on Pag&2 after-"Conc.lusioR~: 1.,Init.ia11y caRStr.uct at.te,Hatuta $i,w':6,,000-ft...&f road" sur;n t.hat:this portion of,ti4e-road,will be lJSed..as it landiDG strip f'w"DC;...31f)t'.-4 p:lane$. t:...Equipment:to (onstFUct:the aforementioned l"OadlJ'UIIWaYi ca..,d:te", mobilized during,tne',wiftw·manths.(eitbar'"overlami:Gl'"by, helicopter)So.di·sass_l".tlieJt;reassembl...... 3...Equipment.ami,ma:terial$~for'ttle rematlri11"rRd ,~tf'Uc:ti_should be .f!$t.atMisbed:.at strl'te!riC,prints. ..long the future road aligJliJent"likewise during the wmter months..- 4.The M:IIRIining road itself Aft then:be reatlily con~ during the summer'mantks~ ;;SIde bee:S.Koretsky S·.ShevekoV' J.Silveira P.Gafner J.Johnston. IIII i .. Harza-Ebasco 400 -112th Avenue NE Bellevue,WA 98004 (206/451-4500) Alaska Power Authority 334 West Fifth Avenue Anchorage,Alaska 99501 !1 ,] Attention: Subject: Gentlemen: August 6,1982 BeeE I VE Q AUG·91982 ALAsKA POWER AUTHORITY, Mr.David D.Wozniak,Executive Secretary Selection Committee Susitna Hydroelectric Project -Access Road The Alaska Power Authority invited comments on the issue of a railroad gateway only (limited access)versus an access'connection to a public highway by letter dated July 29,1982.These comments are intended to aid the Alaska Power Authority Board of Directors in their evaluation of a preferred access route for construction and operation of the Watana Project. The key points which will be given consideration in selection of the route include: reliability --freedom from interruptions which may have an impact on the construction schedule; logistics --method and comparative cost of transport of materials and personnel;and multiple project savings --can a savings on the combined projects,Watana and Devil Canyon,be realized? Limited Access Although the limited access approach,railhead.in the vicinity of Gold creek with a restricted roadway·from the railhead to the site,with no road construction to the Parks Highway maybe environmentally more attractive,it is undersirable from a construction standpoint wherein Page 2 Continued August 6,1982 Alaska Power Authority Mr.David D.Wozniak,Executive Secretary schedules and logistics are vulnerable to interrpution of traffic flow on the railroad~ I I i I I I i II, I ! •• ! I Advantages o Precludes public access. o No major'bridge over Susitna River 'at Gold Creek. o Connects Watana and Devil Canyon Project. o Most economical construction if both Watana and.Dev.il Canyon are considered. Disadvantages o Dependency on a single mode of transportation for mobilization and support of'contracts can seriously impact schedules, which in the case of ri.ver diver- sion or closure may result in the loss of a full construction season. o Lack of the flexibility of alter- nate access roUtes will result in higher bid prices for construction. o The logistics 'of supply become more complicated due to: - LOnger lead time requirements. Supply line availability is beyond contractor's control and dependent on the railroad ... -Special railroad equipment is not readily available at all times. -Possibility of railroad worker's strikes with resultant interrup- tion of supply line for extended periods. -Dependency on train schedules. o Emergency situations are more diffi- cult to handle when direct access to major highways is not possible. Page 3 -Continued August 6,1982 11 I] I 1 I I I) Alaska Power Authority Mr.David D.Wozniak,Executiv.e Secretary A recent example is provided of the effect of disruption of traffic on a single access corridor,although not as serious in.nature: Early ac~ess for delivery of.materials to the site of the Satsop Nuclear Power Plant in'Washington was by way of a single one-way road,wherein the breakdown of a truck (there were as many as 40 in line)halted all travel until it could be towed off the road.In the case of Watana,in. addition to delay in delivery of materials,a camp full of 3,000 workers would depend upon an air shuttle for support. The unsettled future ownership of the Alaska Railroad may'also affect the reliability of this mode of transport.The railroad (limited access) scheme is also subj ect to the same restraint that affects any access from the west --possible schedule impact because of lack of a pioneer ~oad. Access fXQIl\Parks Highway Whether the route from Devil canyon to Watana is located on the north side or the south side of'the Susitna River,the problems with this access are.similar.The north side may be preferable environmentally, but because of the high level bridge at Devil Canyon.required for that route,the route em the south side of the river appears'less likely to have schedule impact on Watana construction.Lacking a pioneer road, the massive rock.excavation and high level bridge across Cheechako Creek are the major deterrents to early access on this route.· 1 ] II Advantages o Full access including rail- head at Gold Creek for construction supplies and personnel. o Connects Watana and Devil Canyon Projects. o Least restrictive -less costly for logistics •. o Greater flexibility and reliability in case of transportation interruption with one mode of'transport. o Lower construction and ser- vice contract bids with contractors'choice of transportation. o Transmission line location can partially follow same corridor. Disadvantages o Without early entry,project schedule impacted by construc- tion of major bridges. o Potential detrimental effect to preservation objective because public access. Page 4 -Continued August 6,1982 1 1, I II Alaska Power Authority Mr.David D.Wozniak,Executive Secretary Access from Denali Highway' Access road construction to serve the Watana site is simplified if'this approach is adopted,since the length of new road construction is reduced, the terrain is such that cost per mile will be less,and no major bridges will be required.However,this route does not provide.access to the Devil Canyon site. I I I I 11 11 (I Advantages o Can meet Project Schedule since access construction c~~be com- pleted in one construction season. o No major.~ridges. o Full access for construction con- tractors. o Greater flexibility and relia- bility in case of transportation interrUption with one mode of trans- port. o Lower construction and service contract bids with contractors' choice of transportation. o Access construction costs for Watana is least expensive.How-· ever if access to both projects is provided,the total access cost will be comparable to the Parks Highway-Watana access. Cost Impact~. Disadvantages o Estimated 50-mile longer road haul. o No connection to Devil Canyon. o Potential impact from public access~ o Impact on caribou calving area.and summer range. ( J [I The limited access logistics expense will not be materially different from that which will be incUrred if access is provided from the Parks Highway, since a combined through rate (lower'48 point of shipment to delivery at site),inclUding rehandling costs at the railhead,can be negotiated.There will be some added expense'of transporting more personnel by air.Large pieces of equipment,which cannot pass through the 10'x 12'tunnel between Whittier and Anchorage,will need to be rerouted through the port of Seward, with a much longerra'il connection to Gold Creek~. With the added 52 miles (approximate--depending on final.route selection within the corridor)in road length from Anchorage to the Watana site,the cost of road transport will increase.if the Denali Highway access is adopted. Page 5 -Continued August 6,1982 l ] II II II I] I IIJ [J Alaska Power Authority Mr.David D.Wozniak,Executive Secretary However,this increa~e will not be proportional to length since less mile- age will be at the off~highway rate.The added cost for all-truck trans- port will have minimal effect on total logistics expense .for Watana since the majority of material will move by rail to the railhead and be trans- ferred to trucks at that point for the shorter road transport to the site. We suggest that a marshalling yard be constructed at Broad Pass rather than Cantwell,in the event that access from the north is adopted.Gravel is readily available at Broad Pass,thereby minimizing the cost of construction. Operation of the yard at this location should overcome any objections by the residents to operation of a yard at Cantwell.. The added cost of rail transport to Broad Pass'rather than Gold Creek will be a definite increase in the logistics expense;however,it will be partially offset by the lesser distance from railhead to damsite.Using quantities of materials previously estimated by the Power Authority,and today's railroad tariffs,'we estimate that the added logistics expense for Watana will be in the neighborhood of $8,000,000 in 1982 dollars.This increase is far below the offsetting cost savings to be realized in access road construction. Potential.Schedule Impact As can be seen from·the discussion above,the limited access approach has. a potential for major schedule impacts.Because of the time span required for construction of.an access road between Gold Creek-and Watana,the Parks Highway access route has much greater potential,with upwards of one year delay,for schedule impact than the'Denali Highway access route. The Denali Highway access route has very little potential for schedule im- pact.In addition,there is less roadway to be traversed beyond the limits of state highway maintenance. The Harza-Ebasco JeintVenture appreciates the opportunity to provide these observations regarding.access to the Susitna Hydroelectric Project.Should you have further questions or comments,please call. Very truly yours cc:Richard L.Meagher II\, , 1 II :.:.-o~_ .•-------- " '_0.,',,;"',':'oi:._'":i\::~o;:j._!f toot :..,".!.••:'.l i _e :::::-i':f-.:-'l:":::::.-••-.LtffC~tir ~UL1 io~ THE THE~ RLTERNBTl~E NuT BE :-·1 ::"'1 !J:.= FLE;~I - OF IJ ::-::.....:::-..-.~ .if:::;"i:.::d STONE &WEBSTER •TAMS ANCHORAGE,ALASKA ADDRESS ALI.CORRESPONDENCE TO: SUITE l-BLDG.H 4791 BUSINESS PARK BLVD.ANCHORAGE,ALASKA 99603 August 6, 1982 AUG 91982 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY I II! i.I Mr.David D.Wozniak Project Engineer Alaska Power Authori ty 334 West 5th Avenue Anchorage,Alaska 99501 ACCESS ROUTES SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Dear Mr.Wozniak: We welcome the opportunity to reply to your July 29, 1982 letter in order to provide you with our comments on the question of limited versus open access to the Susitna Project construction sites.From our experiences on construction of major power projects,.we believe that a total highway access route is the most reliable and least costly means of access during construction of the Susitna Project.Also,the highway access can' be provided with effective access control to include eliminating the access after construction is complete.On the other hand,the limited access of a railroad gateway,as shown in Amendment No.3,has a number of major disadvantages which will result in severe additional construction-costs,possible schedule delays and possible adverse environmental Impacts,Some of the most serious disadvantages of the railroad-highway access,compared to the all-highway access,are as follows: 1.The majority of material shipped to the site would have to be handled at least one additional time.Shipments of goods originating in Alaska would have to be handled twice except for those generated at shipping points on the railroad. 2.Shipments would be "locked"into the·schedule established by the railroad. Emergency and rush shipments would have to be made by air,if possible•. I ! i I 11 IJ IJ Mr.David Wozniak Alaska Power Authority August 6,1982 Page Two 3.Special handling equipment,le,carriers,trucks,tractors,and trailers,to be used between the rail end and construction site would be captive to the'project and not readily usable elsewhere.The materials and equipment.'entering the site will be designated for-a number of different contractors,and it would be impractical and excessively costly to have each do his own hauling..Therefore,APA would need to award a contract that would have to provide and service this equipment. Attachment No. 1 is our first cut estimate of the captive equipment needed for hauling from the rail end to the site. 4..We estimate that total shipping time for materials leaving the Anchorage area to the site will be 2 to 4 times longer over the railroad-highway access route. 5.Equipment for offloading rail cars and loading trucks,as shown on Attachment No. 1 would have to be permanently located at the rail end.Also,provisions for storage of bulk materials,such as cement and fuel,would probably be required,and would partially duplicate those required at the site.Facilities for maintaining this equipment would be required at the rail terminals. 6. The activities and manpower required at the rail gateway will probably result in the development of a small community or camp with all the facilities needed for human habitation.This would be another center of human activity,with potential negative impacts on the surrounding area. 7. Work stoppage or interruption of the railroad would curtail and possibly stop construction activities.While this is also true for the all-highway access,our' experience indicates such delays are of much greater duration with rail services.. Although it was not possible to quantify all of the above disadvantages,we did look at shipment of two key construction materials,cement and structural steel,as a measure of the impact of the railroad-highway access route.. Based on the present construction plans for'Watana,we estimate that it will require 200,000 tons of cement to be used in the four-year-period from 1989 through 1992.This' will require receipt of about ten railroad cars of cement per week during the four years. One could anticipate that during peak usage,cement deliveries could be two to three times that average.We estimate that the additional costs associated with a railroad-highway mode for transportation of cement only is in the'order of a million dollars,not including the capital investment in trucks,storage and transfer facilities.For the Devil's Canyon Project,which has the concrete arch dam,the cement tonnage may be doubled,with another 2 million dollars impact.We estimate that extra handling of structural steel,such as tunnel supports and reinforcing steel,will cost a half million dollars for each of the two projects;or an added million dollars just for handling the steel items.These are only two of the many materials that will need extra handling.If we include the special handling and off-loading for major equipment l.e ..turbines,generators, transformers,breakers,etc.,we are probably talking about a total added cost of 5 to 8 million dollars. STONE Be WEBSTER-TAMS I I [ 1 I 1 I I I 1 U 11 (] [ [1 I.J Mr.David Wozniak Alaska Power Authority August 6, 1982 Page Three We understand that much of the opposition to overall highway access to the site is based on the concern that the highway will provide ready access to the general public to a large area which has not-been subjected to the pressures usually associated with heavy human intrusion.We believe that during construction,use of the access road can be controlled with only those with legitimate purposes at the site permitted on the road.The same kinds of controls would be required on a railroad-highway access. Upon completion of construction,there are several techniques available which can deny use of the highway and severely limit the access of the motoring public to the area. These are as follows: 1. Use of barriers and/or moveable spans on bridges across major river crosslnqs,Bridge locations should be selected to ensure that motor vehicles cannot by-pass them. 2..Removal of the highway and return to natural contours and conditions of those sections which can not readily be by-passed. Given the limited time we have had to look at this matter,we hope this information is of assistance in providinq input to your Board of Directors regarding the access issue.We believe the project can be constructed using either access mode but that the all-highway access is the less costly and offers many advantages during construction.. In our opinion, the highway option can be constructed and operated during and after construction to limit access of the general public to the area to the same degree as the railroad-highway access. Very truly yours, Bernard J.Roth Project Manager STONE &WEBSTER-TAMS II 11 r I [I ( 1 I III [I II (] (] AITACHMENT NO.1 ESTIMA TE OF MAJOR CAPTIVE EQUIPMENT FOR HAULING FROM TERMINUS OF RAIL SPUR TO WATANA 8 Bulk cement trailers (25 ton capacity)with 8 tractors 6 25 ton capacity flatbed trailers with 3 tractors 2..Heavy duty Gooseneck trailers for hauling equipment 1 Tractor for'above 5 4 wheel drive snow plows 2.Rotary snow blowers 2 Road graders 2 Dozers 12 Enclosed trailers 2 Frozen food trailers 8 Gasoline tank trailers 8 Tractors for-above- ESTIMA TE OF MAJOR CAPTIVE EQUIPMENT REQUIRED AT RAILHEAD FOR OFFLOADING AND MAINTENANCE 1 Crane,approximately 90 ton 1 Large fork truck 1 Large cherry picker'30-40 ton 1 15 ton cherry picker 1 Road grader- 1 Dozer Pumping facility for-transferring fuel Facility for transferring cement' Maintenance facility including electric power STONE Be WEBSTER-TAMS. APP'ENDl X A.2 The purpose of this letter is to transmit to the Alaska Power Authority (APA)comments from the Susitna Hydroelectric Steering Committee (SHSC)con- cerning APA's proposals for access to the proposed Susitna River dam sites. These comments are in response to ,information provided the SHSC from two access route meetings with APA and their contractors and the documents prepared by APA contractors and distributed during these meetings. At the October 20,1981 meeting APA requested SHSC comments by November 6,19$1.The SHSC appreciates the fact that APA continued detailed consideration and studies of several access route options this year rather than focusing on a single route. The SHSC review identified four areas of concern that merited comment. Those four are: JA Y S.HAMMOND,SOVfffNOR 323 E,4TH A VENUE ANCHORAGE,ALASKA 99501276-2653 RECEIVED / :£JASKA.POVilER AUTHORiTY, November 5,1981 DIVISIONOF RESEARCH &DEVELOPMENT Mr.Eric Yould,Executive Director Alaska Power Authqrity 333 West Fourth Avenue Anchorage,Alaska 99501 Dear Mr.Yould: iJlEPAIlTMENT 0 ..'NATURAl.H":SOURCES r 1 11 1 1 I I] 'I ] [I II II 1. A critique of the studies of access routes which provide for construc- tion of the dams. IJ 2.The relationship between timing of access route construction and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)approval for dams. 3.The relationship of access route decision and modes of access to regional land use management policies. 4.The issues resultant from land status and land ownership affected by the proposed project. The assessment of corridor route alternatives should more adequately weigh the potential impacts of borrow sites and access to these sites,and trans- mission line(s)routing.Access corridors which serve a dual,or triple,purpose in regard to these other project access needs would be highly desirable from all decision-making criteria.' The access preferences expressed below pertain to the general locations cited for the corridors and are based upon the environmental data and conclu- sions contained within the environmental documents prepared for Subtask 2.10. Access Road Assessment.It does not represent our endorsement of a particular 1-mile-wide'corridor,as presented. The SHSC agrees with the Terrestrial Environmental Specialists,Inc.posi- tion that access via the Alaska Railroad to Gold Creek is environmentally pre- ferable.Railroad access to at least Devil Canyon would alleviate the need for a staging area at Gold Creek and the consequent human activity,land use, fuel spills,and other impacts on the Gold Creek area.We recognized that a staging area at Devil Canyon would be required in any case.The 'use of this area as the terminus of a railroad appears to make a great deal of sense.Additionally,we feel that the south side route from Gold Creek to Devil Canyon is preferable since a trail already exists there.From Devil Canyon to Watana,we prefer a route on the north side of the Susitna River. At the October 20,1981 meeting the SHSC was informed by Mr.David Wozniak of APA that there were two (2) additional railroad route/mode options (a total of 10).If feasible we gen- erally prefer a rail mode of access to and within the project site. The SHSC identified three (3)environmentally sensitive areas that should be avoided.Those are: November 5,1981Page-2-Mr.Eric Yould !1 i I r 1 I I I j [ J [ 1.The routes from the Denali Highway. 2.The route crossing the Indian River and through wetlands to the Parks Highway. 3.The route on the south side of the Susitna River from Devils Canyon to the proposed Watana dam site. In evaluating the access route selection process undertaken by the APA and its contractors,the Steering Committee questions the validity of the power-on- line in 1993 assumption/mandate.The "We1ve got to hurry up and put'in a'road to meet the 1993 deadline"approach appears,from currently available reports and the briefings received by the Susitna Hydroelectric Steering Committee on October 20,1981,to point toward the n~cessity of a pioneer road constructed before a FERC license is granted,or selection of an apparently environmentally unacceptable Denali Highway access route. lJ IJ Local utilities are not approaching construction of a project the magnitude of Susitna in 1993 as a foregone conclusion and are making contingency plans to meet projected power needs.Gas and coal generated power option~are being examined.In addition,feasibility studies are currently being undertaken by the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers and the APA at numerous potential hydroelectric generating sites.The Battelle Railbelt Electric Power Alternative Study should provide insight into additional power generation options.As such,we believe that the 1993 "deadline"for power-on-line from Susitnamay not be that firm and imperative.Thus the SHSC does not believe the 1993 deadline should constrain the overall decision-making process and the orderly progress of various studies on project feasibility and environmental impacts.Permitting and resource agencies,including FERC,should be expected to link a piorieer road to the overall project., 1-1 Mr.Eric Yould Page -3-November 5,1981 11 I] 11 I i 11 I] II 11 I] I I I U IJ IIl",,_ Public access to the dam sites and through the Upper Susitna Valley is complex and a controversial subject and we believe this issue should be given .thorough evaluation in the route selection process.How construction-related access is obtained to a great extent determines the project~related wildlife and socioeconomic impacts.The APA has been soliciting th~views of local residents (Talkeetna,Trapper Creek,etc.)in regard to the access question.The majority of residents want to minimize impacts to both their community and the Upper Susitna Valley.The APA has solicited the views of the state and federal resource agencies.It has been the predominant view of these agencies,which represent public interests on a state or national level,that project-related wildlife impacts should be limited to the maximum extent practicable.In addition,the APA has expressed the desire to maximize the options for future public access. We believe that these views mesh.Minimizing impacts and maximizing options for future public access can be achieved by mimicking,to the extent possible,the status quo. For example,to provide full pUbli~access through a road system, forecloses the future option of maintaining the existing character of the Upper Susitna Valley. Use of rail as the access mode increases the potential for management and control of socioeconomic and environmental impacts.Maximized rail use provides for the following advantages over road access: 1. Maintains a maximum range of future decision options. 2. Provides for control of worker impacts on local communities and wild- 1ife. 3. Decreases the potential of hazardous material spills due to adverse weather conditions and multiple handling. 4.Disturbance to wildlife adjacent to the route can be more easily controlled. 5..Direct access right-of-way related habitat losses can be significantly 1imited. Briefly the land status of the project area has not changed significantly within the last year.There are several complex problems concerning land status that have been brought to your attention by BLM. Thank you for the opportunity to review and comment on the Access Road Assessment documents.We look forward to receiving the final version of these documents after November 15,1981,and anticipate providing additional recom- mendations into this decision-making process. Sincerely, Al Carson,Chairman Susitna Hydroelectric Steering Committee cc:D.Wozniak,APA Steering Committee Members R.Stoops PLAN 1 2 Table:.'A·:.;l·Access Plan Costs 3 4 5 6 DESCRIPTION ROADWAY:PARKS HIGHWAY TO DEVIL CANYON &WATANA ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. RAIL:GOLD CREEK TO DEVIL CANYONc& WATANAONSOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. ROADWAX:DENALI HI GHWAY TO,WATANA. .:PARKS.:HIGHWAVTO DEVI lrCANYON··ON'~3~I~~Rt8~N~FCONN- ECTING ROAD .: ROADWAY:DENALI HIGHWAY TO WATANA. RAIL,GOLD CREEK TO DEVIL CANYON ON SOUTHSIDE OF SUS- ITNA.NO CONNEC- TING ROAD. ROADWAY:PARKS HIGHI4AY TO DEVIL CANYON ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. DEVIL CANYON.TO WATANA ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. ROADWAY:DENALI HIGHWAY TO WATANA. RAIL:GOLD.CREEK TO DEVIL CANYON ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA.CONNEC- TING ROAD ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. ..***Hileage Road 62 -91 65 81 107 . Rail -58 -16 -16 Design and Construction Cost (S x 1,000,000)170 149 157 123 160 180 Maintenance Cost ($x 1,000,000)9 5 7 5 8 12 Logistics Cost (S x 1,000 ,000)214 214 228 228 216 228 Tota:Cost (S ;<1,000,000)393 368 392 356 384 420 Construction Schedule for Initial Access (Years) 1 3-4 1 1 2-3 r Construction Schedule for Full Access (Years)3-4 3-4 2-3 2-3 3-4 3 Bridges Major (>1000 ft)3 2 1 °2 0 nor «1000 ft)2 0 1 0 1 0 *Includes upgrading 21 miles of.tht;Oenali Highway Revision:0 Sheet 1 of 3 Table:A.l (cont'd) PLAN DESCRI PTION 7 ROADWAY:DENALI HIGHWAY TO WATANA. PARKS HIGHWAY TO DEVIL CANYON ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA.CONN-senNG ROAD ON NORTH SI DE OF SUSITNA. 8 ROADWAY:GOLD CREEK TO DEVIL CANYON ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. DEVIL CANYON TO WATANA ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. 9 RAIL:GOLD CREEK TO DEVI.L CANYON ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. ROADWAY:DEVIL CANYON TO WATANA ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA.. 10 RAIL:GOLD CREEK TO DEVI L CANYON ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. ROADWAY:DEVIL CANYON TO WATANA ON SOUTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. 11 ROADWAY:DENALI HIGHWAY TO WATANA. CONNECTING ROAD BETWEEN WATANA AND DEVIL CANYON ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. 1:2 ROADWAY:PARKS HIGHWAY TO DEVIL CANYON AND WATANA ON NORTH SIDE OF SUSITNA. **Mileage Road 132 69 56 36 114 .61Rail--16 16 Design and Construction Cost ($x 1,000,000)215 117 126 136 172 127 Maintenance Cost ($x 1,000,000)9 7 6 6 11 7 Logistics Cost (S x 1,000,000)228 216 216 214 258 225 Total Cost ($x L,000,000) .452 340 348 356 441 359 Construction Sthedule for Initial Access (Years)1 2-3 3 2 1 2 Construction Schedule for Full Access (Years)3 3 3 3 2-3 3-4 Sri dges ~laj or (>1000 ft)1 a 0 2 0 1Minor«1000 ft)1 1 1 1 1 2 *Includes upgrading 21 miles of the Denali Highwav Revi sian:D Sheet 2 of 3 _.- Table:A.l (cont'd) PLAN 13 14 15 16 1'r ROADWAY:PARKS RAIL/ROADWAY:GOLD RAIL/ROADWAY:GOLD ROADWAY:GOLD ROADWAY:DENALl HIGHWAY TO WATANA CREEK RAI LROAD CREEK RAI LROAD CREEK TO WATANA HIGHWAY TO WATANA. ON NORTH SIDE OF EXTENSION.ROADWAY:EXTENSION.ROADWAY:ON SOUTH SIDE OF CONNECTING ROAD TO SUSITNA WITH BRANCH TO DEVIL CANYON AND TO DEVIL CANYON AND SUSITNA.CONN-DEVIL CANYON ON DESCRIPTION ROAD TO SOUTH BANK WATANA ON SOUTH SIDE WATANA ON SOUTH sen NG ROAD TO SOUTH SIDE OF SUS- AT DEVIL CANYON OF SUSITNA.CONNEC-SIDE OF SUSITNA.DEVIL CANYON AND lTNA.RAl L:GOLD TING ROAD TO PARKS PARKS HIGHWAY.CREEK TO DEVIL HIGHWAY.CANYON ON SOUTH SJ DE OF SUS ITHA. *~'1i 1eage Road 59 64 49 69 102 Rail -7 7 -14 Design and Construction Cost ($x 1,000,000)115 174 128 156 200 Maintenance Cost (S x.1,000,000)7 9 6 10 12 Logistics Cost ($x 1,000,000)223 215 215 216 227 Total Cost (S x 1,000,000)345 398 349 382 439 Construction Schedule for Initial Access (Years)1 1 1 1 1 Construction Schedule for Full Access (Years)3 3-4 3 3 3-4 Bridges Major (>1000 ft)1 2 1 2 1 Mi nor (1000 ft)2 2 1 2 1 *Includes upgradin9 21 miles of the Denali Highway Revision:0 Sheet 3 of 3