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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA361ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES ANNUAL REPORT 1980 SUBTASK 7.05 SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS MAY 1981 Terre1trial Environmental Speciali1t1, Inc. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES ANNUAL REPORT 1980 SUBTASK 7.05 SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS MAY 1981 by FRANK ORTH & ASSOCIATES, INC. Bellevue, Washington 98004 ~d TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENTAL SPECIALISTS, Inc. Phoenix, New York 13135 for ACRES AMERICAN, INCORPORATED Liberty Bank Building, Main at Court Buffalo, New York 14202 ERRATUM Unofficial information was received by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. and Terrestrial Environmental Specialists, Inc. from other project participants concerning the possibility that a fairly well-developed construction enclave would be provided, with a significant level of services and housing for mid-and upper-level management personnel and their families. This information was received in 1981, too late to consider in this 1980 Annual Report. It is possible that, with such an enclave, there potentially could be reduced magnitudes of impacts in certain socioeconomic categories. These would include ethnicity, culture, community, housing type and availa- bility, and possibly public ~ervices. Although absolute impacts may decline somewhat in the aforemen~ioned categories, each of the schemes likely would remain the same. topics discussed on pages ix-x and 263-278. relative magnitudes for This erratum applies to SUMMARY SUMMARY Introduction Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. is identifying and analyzing socioeconomic impacts that could result from hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. The overall objectives of this analysis {Phases I and II), as well as Phase I and first year objectives for Subtask 7.05: Socioeconomic Analysis, are as follows: Overall Objectives Determine which socioeconomic conditions are most likely to be impacted and to what extent these conditions are likely to change; and -provide information that will aid in assessing the signifi- " cance of potential changes in socioeconomic conditions Phase I Objectives -Review impacts resulting from energy-development projects and assess their applicability to proposed hydroelectric develop- ment in the Upper Susitna Basin; -develop descriptors {categories of variables) for socioecono- mic conditions and determine which variables are most likely to be influenced by hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin; -geographically delineate impact areas; -identify and describe important socioeconomic conditions in areas likely to be impacted by hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin; -review forecasting models and assess their applicability to forecasting socioeconomic conditions in the impact areas; -adopt, modify, and/or develop a methodology for forecasting socioeconomic conditions and conducting preliminary and final impact analyses; co~duct preliminary socioeconomic impact analysis for hydro- electric development in the Upper Susitna Basin, including consideration of a one or two dam scheme, access routes, transmission facilities, and other areas, concerns and issues that may be appropriate to socioeconomic analysis; and -forecast socioeconomic conditions in the impact areas under the assumption that there will be no hydroelectric develop- ment in the Upper Susitna Basin. At the end of the first year, the first four Phase I objectives were accomplished; work relating to the next three objectives was in process; and work relating to the last objective had not yet begun. Methodology At the outset, a conceptual framework for the overall socioeconomic analysis (Phases I and II) was developed and interrelations among work packages (generally discrete work efforts) were defined. Particular emphasis was placed upon de vel oping detailed work plans for each of the four work packages of Phase I and defining interre- lations among them. The basic objectives and methodologies for each work package are: Work Package 1: Literature Review Impact studies of projects similar to the proposed Susitna Project were identified and evaluated. This evaluation provided guidance for the development of baseline socioeconomic profiles and con- siderable insight concerning types of impacts to expect from hydroelectric and other types of energy development. vi Work Package 2: Socioeconomic Profile Development Socioeconomic profiles covering the immediate vicinity of the pro- posed project~ broader regions, and the State of Alaska were deve- loped. In these profiles, socioeconomic conditions most likely to be impacted by the proposed project were identified and described in significant depth. The profiles included, where applicable and available, the following socioeconomic conditions and/or variables: -Current population totals and distribution; -Attitudes toward growth~ lifestyle, and quality of life; -Housing stock, by type of unit and price/rent levels; -Tax rates and revenues by type of jurisdiction; -Public facilities: availability and adequacy; -Transportation facilities~ by type; -Education: enrollment, capacity, and ~osts; Business activity, level, and trends; -Employment and income levels; -land use patterns and trends; and -Fish and wildlife use patterns. Work Package 3: Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Studies Preliminary impact analysis was conducted for alternative access corridors. The railbelt region was split into "west'' and "east" sides. Impacts that could occur on either side as a result of constructing and utilizing alternative access corridors were iden- tified and qualitatively assessed. Preliminary impact studies for alternative hydroelectric design plans and a selected plan are to be conducted during 1981. vii Work Package 4: Forecast of Future Socioeconomic Conditions in the Absence of a Susitna Project All relevant socioeconomic forecasting models and studies were iden- tified and evaluated according to specific criteria. Based on this analysis one or a combination of model types is to be selected for utilization as a forecasting tool. Results and Discussion of Baseline Study Recent and current socioeconomic conditions in geographic areas (study areas) that could be impacted by hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin were identified and described. Literature and data re- views and analyses served to "lay the foundation" and structure for the socioeconomic baseline profiles. These included: 1) a review of recent energy-development impact s~udies; 2) a review . of the process used to define socioeconomic conditions, variables and study areas; and 3) a preliminary analysis of conditions and variables most likely to be impacted in each study area. This analysis provided substantial guid- ance for selecting and emphasizing key socioeconomic conditions and variables in the baseline profiles. The socioeconomic baseline includes descriptions of population distribu- tion, housing, government structure and taxation, infrastructure, economic base, employment, land use, and recreation. Each of these categories of socioeconomic conditions was described for each study area to the extent appropriate. Information concerning places/communities in or near the Upper Susitna Basin was provided subject to the availability of secondary data. viii Impact Assessment Preliminary impact analysis and assessment in regard to alternative access routes was conducted. It was concluded that socioeconomic impacts w·ill vary in both magnitude and area of concentration depending upon which access route or combination of access routes is selected. The analysis was predicated on several assumptions, one of which was that there will not be an enclave with a broad range of services at the project site, and that labor corrmuting patterns will develop as a func- tion of accessibility to the dam sites. It was also assumed that if the access is from the west, whether a road connecting with the Parks High- way or a rail spur off the existing railroad, the port of entry would be Anchorage; thus, impacts would be concentrated on the "west side". The west side was defined as Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna, Seward, Kenai- Cook Inlet, and the southeast portion of Yukon-t.<oyukuk census divisions. The areas of greatest concentration of impacts will be the Parks Highway and railroad corridor. However, if the access corridor were from the Denali Highway, then it was assumed that the port of entry would be Valdez. In this scenario more impacts would occur on the "east side". The east side was defined as the City of Valdez and the Valdez-Chitina- Whittier census division, and the western portion of the Southeast Fairbanks census division, (primarily the Richardson Highway and eastern portion of the Denali Highway). Potentially susceptible socioeconomic conditions and variables were exa- mined for impact magnitude per each access route combination. This was done for each access route combination on both the east and west sides; as well as for an additional combination where the impacts are broadly dispersed over both the east and west sides. A numerical scale of 1 to 5 was used, with 5 representing a large impact and 1 a small or negli- gible impact. The numerical scale did not correspond to a quantitative measure, but rather was a ranking system used to delineate the relative magnitudes of impacts. Relative refers here to the socioeconomic base NOTE: Please refer to the Erratum that precedes the Summary of this report. ix upon which the impact could occur. Thus, for the east side, in general the impacts were rated fairly high because of its relatively less deve- loped socioeconomic base. Socioeconomic factors, issues and concerns relating to dam construction and operation, were also addressed. Factors that will substantially influence the geographic distribution and magnitude of socioeconomic impacts were identified. Some of the key issues are: These factors give rise to several issues. -what access route or combination of access routes results in the most desirable distribution and magnitudes of socioeconomic impacts? -what type and amount of public and private use of the project site(s} and access route and adjacent/nearby land provides for the desired impacts? -is an enclave or construction camp desirable? -can the timing of the demand for labor be changed and, if so, what is the most desirable labor schedule? -what types and amounts of construction supplies and services will be purchased locally? These issues are interdependent. They must be addressed and resolved as such. Associated with each issue will be concerns, which will usually be expressed and voiced by persons who oppose or favor substantial changes in the status quo {i.e., substantial changes in baseline socio-economic variables and conditions}. The issues must be resolved by considering any such concerns. Mitigation Mitigation planning to avoid or minimize potentially adverse socio- economic impacts (i.e., potentially large changes in the forecasted X baseline conditions resulting from construction and/or operation of hydroelectric and related facilities) should include consideration of the distribution and relative magnitudes of potential impacts associated with "west side" versus "east side" access to the project site(s). The location and relative magnitude of impacts in almost every socioeconomic impact category (set of socioeconomic variables) will vary considerably depending upon which "side" is chosen for access. In general, choosing "west side" access will result in minimizing large changes in impact categories. Further, choosing access from the west. side, with a road from the Alaska Rai 1 road to Devil Canyon and Watana, would result in the least overall change in impact categories. Mitigation planning should also consider minimizing irreversible impacts on socioeconomic resources. Existing and potential mining claims and recreational fishing areas in the vicinity of the alternative impound- ment zones should enter in the dam(s) siting and design decision pro- cesses. xi TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY liST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES 1 -INTRODUCTION v XV xxi 3 2 -METHODOLOGY -----------------------------------------------9 2.1 -Introduction --------------------------------------9 2.2 -Work Package 1: Literature Review ----------------12 2.3 -Work Package 2: Socioeconomic Profile Development -------------------------------------17 2.4 -Work Package 3: Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Studies -----------------------------------------17 2.5 -Work Package 4: Forecast of Future Socioeconomic Conditions in the Absence of a Susitna Project --20 3 -RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF BASELINE STUDY------------------31 3.1 -Introduction --------------------------------------31 3.2 -Population/Community ------------------------------38 3.3 -Housing -------------------------------------------57 3.4 -Government Structure and Taxation --~--------------71 3.5 -Infrastructure ------------------------------------85 3.6 -Economic Base ------------------------------------~ 140 3.7 -Employment ----------------------------------------209 3.8 -Land Use ------------------------------------------228 3.9 -Recreation ----------------------------------------238 3.10 -Methodology Development ---------------------------259 4 -IMPACT ASSESSMENT -----------------------------------------263 4.1 -Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Assessment for Alternative Access Routes -----------------------263 4.2 -Issues and Concerns Relating to Dam Construction and Operation -----------------------------------271 5 -MITIGATION ------------------------------------------------277 6 -REFERENCES ------------------------------------------------281 6.1 -Introduction --------------------------------------281 6.2 -Energy Development Impact Studies -----------------281 6.3 -Data ----------------------------------------------284 6.4 -Methodologies ------------------------------------~ 294 7 -AUTHORITIES CONTACTED -------------------------------------303 7.1 -Introduction --------------------------------------303 7.2 Federal Institutions ------------------------------303 7.3 State Institutions --------------------------------304 7.4 Local Institutions --------------------------------310 7.5 Other Institutions, Organizations, and Individuals -------------------------------------311 xiii APPENDIX A -PROCESS FOR DEFINING SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STUDY AREAS-------------------------------------319 APPENDIX B -IMPACTS OF REPRESENTATIVE POWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS----------------------------------------327 APPENDIX C -COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF SOCIOECONOMIC CATEGORIES AND VARIABLES---------------------------------------335 APPENDIX D -PROBABILITY AND DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTED VARIABLES------------------------------349 APPENDIX E -OVERVIEW OF MATANUSKA -SUSITNA BOROUGH ECONOMY --371 xiv Table 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 LIST OF TABLES Characteristics of Selected Socioeconomic Impact Studies Format for Compilation of Impacts from Relevant Energy Impact Studies Impacts of Representative Power Development Projects: Potential Relevance for the Proposed Susitna Project Economic Data Collection Matrix Characteristics of Selected Socioeconomic Impact Studies Economic Data Collection Matrix Total Residential Population and Components of Change by Study Area: 1970-1980 Race of the Population by Study Area Community Population Matanuska-Susitna Borough Census Data 1939, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1976, 1980 Attitude Toward Development: Matanuska-Susitna Borough Community Attitudes Toward Economic Development Community Development Priorities Housing Stock Estimates, December 1979 Estimated Housing and Vacancy Rates Housing Stock Estimates by Areas of the Borough Inventory of Transient Accommodations in Study Area 2 Owner-Renter Distribution by Housing Type The Presence of Selected Housing Conditions Municipal Property and Sales Tax Rates Valuation, Population, and G.O. Bonded Debt Community Facilities Summary XV 14 15 16 18 33 35 41 44 47 50 51 52 58 59 60 63 64 67 82 86 88 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Total Traffic for Selected Alaska Ports Principal Scheduled Common Carrier Marine Services to Selected Alaska Ports Port of Anchorage Freight Movements in Tons by Commodity: 1965, 1970, 1972 -1979 Matanuska Telephone Association, Inc. Total Number of Installed, and Spare Terminals and 1990 Estimate Number of Electrical Consumers: Matanuska, Valdez, and Glennallen Divisions Residential Consumer Rates Consumer Cost of Electric Energy for Specified Usages and Suppliers Medical Facilities/Services and Inpatient Utilization Data Characteristics of Public Schools: Matanuska-Susitna School District Characteristics of Public Schools: Copper River School District Value of Alaska•s Mineral Products: 1959-1979 Gross Unrestricted and Petroleum Revenues Valuation of Residential, Nonresidential and Total Building Included in Building Permits Issued in Selected Areas of Alaska: 1974-1979 Domestic Fisheries of Alaska 36 Catch & Value from Alaska•s Domestic & Foreign 37 38 39 40 Fisheries Alaska Timber Harvest (in thousand board feet, Scribner scale) on Public Lands, By Ownership, 1959 -1979 Dollar Value of Agricultural Production Cropland Utilization Livestock on Farms xvi 94 95 96 107 111 116 117 126 138 141 143 145 149 151 152 154 155 157 158 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Visitor and Expenditure Projections Visitor Expenditures Cities/Areas Visited Total Sales of Visitor Industry Firms in Alaska and Total Sales to Visitors Employment Growth, Annual Average Rates, Selected Alaska Industries State of Alaska Index of Employment Seasonality, Selected Industries Combined Indicators for Banking, Savings and Loan Associations, Federal Credit Unions, and Small Licensee Activity: 1976 -1979 Total Number of Family Dwelling Units Included in Building Permits Issued in Selected Urban Areas 1970 -1979 Alaska Insurance Business - Alaska Public Sector Wages Compared to All Wages Received in Selected Years Total Federal Government Obligations in Alaska Plus Net Dollar Exchanges Among Levels of Government Alaska State Government, Expenditures by Function State of Alaska, Revenues by Source, Last Ten Fiscal Years Local Government General Revenue and Direct General Expenditures in Alaska: FY 1972 -FY 1978 Total Value of Permits Issued for Residential and Non-Residential in Anchorage Tax Revenue by Source New Mining Claims Received Classification and Number of Businesses Borough and Pipeline Related Assessments Comparison of Selected Public Fiscal Measures, City of Valdez and Municipality of Anchorage 1978 xvii 160 161 162 163 165 167 169 170 172 173 175 176 177 178 180 184 185 186 187 191 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 Business Location and Type Gross Business Receipts Employment by Industry for Adult Residents of Matanuska-Susitna Borough Occupation of Matanuska-Susitna Borough Adult Residents State Annual Nonagricultural Employment by Sector Study Area 3 Annual Nonagricultural Employment by Sector Anchorage Annual Nonagricultural Employment by Sector Matanuska-Susitna Borough Annual Nonagricultural Employment by Sector Valdez-Chitina-Whittier Annual Nonagricultural Employment by Sector Civilian Labor Force Data and Percent Unemployed for Selected Areas Cross Industry Employment by Major Occupational Group Sport Fish Harvest, by Species East Side Susitna Drainage Sport Fish Harvests and Effort by Fishery and Species, 1978 West Side Cook Inlet-West Side Susitna River Drainage Sport Fish Harvests and Effort and Species, 1978 Knik Arm Drainage Sport Fish Harvests and and Effort by Fishery and Species, 1978 Glennallen Sport Fish Harvests and Effort by Fishery and Species, 1978 Nelchina Herd Fall 1979 Drawing Permit Applications Moose -GMU 13 Nelchina Basin Black Bear Harvest Data Brown Bear Sport Harvest Summary xviii 194 197 198 199 211 215 216 217 219 223 227 243 244 245 246 247 250 251 252 254 255 82 Potential Socioeconomic Impacts of Alternative Access Route Combinations, by Socioeconomic Impact Category xix 268 XX Figure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 LIST OF FIGURES General Framework for Plan of Study Model Categorization and Evaluation Criteria Study Areas Total Population of Alaska Major Inbound Commodity Flows Major Outbound Commodity Flows Principal Highways and Traffic Volumes for Selected Points in Study Area 3 Principal Scheduled Alaska Air Service Air Transportation Residential Electric Consumers Small Commercial Electric Consumers Large Commercial Electric Consumers Existing Fire Service Areas Proposed Fire Service Areas Dollar Value of Agricultural Production Cropland Utilization Tax Revenue by Source New Mining Claims Matanuska-Susitna Business Dispersion Mineral Resources Mining Districts Coal Fields xxi 10 22 26 39 91 92 98 102 103 113 114 115 122 123 155 157 184 185 195 203 205 207 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3l 32 33 Alaska Nonagricultural Employment Index Statewide Quarterly Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment With Moving Average Alaska Unemployment Rate Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Index Alaska Statewide Employment Estimates, Percent Distribution of Major Occupational Groups, 1979 Land Tenure Native Claim Lands Native Claim Lands Federal Land Withdrawals in Southcentral Alaska Access Route Schematic for Susitna Hydroelectric Project Census Divisions by East and West Definition xxii 214 221 222 225 226 229 233 235 239 264 26n 1-INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION Important elements of the feasibility of a hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin are the socioeconomic impacts created by its construction and operation. Such impacts are important not only in their own right. but also because of the intense socioeconomic concerns so pre- valent in Alaska. The intensity of these concerns was recently voiced as the proposed Rampart Project on the Upper Yukon River was deferred indefi- nitely. This project was deferred in large part because the homelands of the Interior Natives. areas of habitat for caribou and other game animals. and upstream and downstream fisheries would have been impacted in a manner that was considered unacceptable at the time. The socioeconomic analysis presented and discussed herein is designed to assess the . important socioeconomic impacts that could result from hydroelectric development on the Susitna River. The overall objectives of the socioeconomic analysis are to: (1) determine which socioeconomic con- ditions are most likely to be impacted and to what extent these conditions are likely to change; and (2) provide information that will aid in assessing the significance of potential changes in socioeconomic conditions. The analysis has been divided into two phases. The first phase entails making preliminary determinations in (1). The second phase effort is devoted to providing for more rigorous determinations in {1) and to accomplishing (2). Phase I results are to be included in the license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Co1m11ission (FERC) and Phase II is to be con- ducted while the license is under consideration. The specific objectives of the Phase I effort are to: 1) review impacts resulting from energy-development projects and assess their applicability to proposed hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin; 2) develop descriptors (categories of variables and variables) for socioeconomic conditions and determine which variables are most likely to be influenced by hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin; 3) delineate impact areas; 4) identify and describe important socioeconomic conditions in areas likely to be impacted by hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin; 5) review forecasting models and assess their applicability to fore- casting socioeconomic conditions in the impact areas; 6) adopt, modify, and/or develop a methodology for forecasting socioeconomic conditions and conducting preliminary and final impact analyses; 7) conduct preliminary socioeconomic impact analysis for hydro- electric development in the Upper Susitna Basin, including con- sideration of a one or two dam scheme, access routes, transmission facilities, and other areas, concern and issues that may be appropriate to socioeconomic analysis; and 8) forecast socioeconomic conditions in the impact areas under the assumption that there will be no hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. At the end of the first year of Phase I, objectives 1 through 4 were accomplished; work relating to objectives 5 through 7 was in process; and work relating to objective 8 had not yet begun. Methodologies for conducting work related to each of the first seven objectives are discussed in Section 2. Results of the first year effort are presented and discussed in Section 3. First year impact assessment work is presented in Section 4. Comments concerning mitigation are pre- 4 sented in Section 5 and references and authorities contacted during the first year are provided in Sections 6 and 7, respectively. 2-METHODOLOGY 2 -METHODOLOGY 2.1 -Introduction Work packages to attain the objectives of the socioeconomic analysis are divided into those that are scheduled to be completed prior to submission of the FERC license application (1 through 4 below) and those work packages that may be completed during a later time period (5 through 9 below). The work packages to be completed during Phases I and II are: (1) Literature review; (2) Socioeconomic profile development; (3) Preliminary socioeconomic impact studies; (4) Forecast of future socioeconomic conditions in the absence of a Susitna Project; (5) Forecast of future socioeconomic conditions with a Susitna Project; {6) Detailed analysis and assessment of significant socioeconomic project impacts (excluding those impa£ts associated with fish and wildlife); (7) Assessment of economic aspects (values) of important commercial, recreational, and subsistence fish and wildlife resources without the project; (8) Determination and evaluation of project impacts on important co11111ercial, recreational, and subsistence fish and wildlife resources; and (9) Assessment of social significance of the economic impacts of the project on important commercial, recreational, and subsistence fish and wildlife resources. As can be seen in Figure 1, the first phase (pre-license submission) con- sists of work packages designed to identify important socioeconomic conditions that are likely to be impacted by the project and to do a preli- minary assessment of these impacts. Based on the findings of Phase I, in- depth analyses and assessments of potential project impacts are performed in Phase II (p~st-license submission). I--' 0 ~ Literature Review 2 Soc1 o-economi c Profile Development 3 Preliminary Socio-economic Impact Studies FIGURE 1 GENERAL FRAMHJORK FOR PLAN OF STUDY PHASE I PHASE II -------, I I 7 ' 4 9 1 Econom1 c Assessment _a Forecast of Future of Important Commer-Assess Social Signifi-ciiil Recreational, Determine & Evaluate cance of Project's Socio-economic &Subsistence Fish & Project's Impacts on Economic Impacts on ;---eo Conditions in -Wildlife-Under 1-Important Commercial, Important Commercial, Absence of "Without Project" I--Recreational & Sub~ ~ Recreational & Project Conditions sistence Fish & Subsistence Fish & Wildlife P~sources Wildlife Resources I I I f--I I I _6.::.8._ I 5 6-A ' Assess Social·and I Forecast of Future Identify & Evaluate Economic Sign1fi-I Socio-economic 1-Significant Socio-1--cance of Impact I ~ Conditions in '--economic Project Evaluation Results. I Presence of Impacts (exclu. impact~ I One or Two on fish and wildlife) I Dam Project I I I I .,. __ ----..J In the first work package of Phase I, impact studies of projects similar to the proposed Susitna Project are identified and evaluated. This evaluation provides guidance for the development of detailed socioeconomic profiles. Socioeconomic profiles covering the immediate vicinity of the proposed pro- ject, broader regions, and the State of Alaska are developed in the second work package. In ~hese profiles, socioeconomic conditions most likely to be impacted by the proposed project are identified and described in signi- ficant depth. The profiles include, where applicable, the following socioeconomic conditions and/or variables: Population totals and distribution, current and projected; -Housing stock, by type of unit and price/rent levels; -Employment and income levels; -Tax rates and revenues by type of jurisdiction; -Public facilities, availability, adequacy, and cost; -Land-use patterns and trends; -Business activity, level, and trends; -Education, enrollment trends, capacity, revenues, and costs; -Transportation facilities, by type; -Fish and wildlife use patterns; -Attitudes toward life style and quality of life; and -Attitudes toward growth. Two preliminary socioeconomic impact studies are conducted in Work Package 3. The first preliminary impact study will consider several alternative project plans provided by Acres American, Inc. This preliminary assessment wi 11 be based in part upon the experiences reported in the 1 i teratu re review in Work Package 1. The second preliminary impact study wi 11 con- sider the plan selected by APA and Acres American, Inc. This ·impact study will be more in-depth than the first impact study because it will benefit from the use of projected baseline socioeconomic conditions. Potentially large, or significant changes in the projected baseline conditions due to the selected alternative are to be i denti fi ed in this second preliminary 11 impact study. Work Package 4 is a forecast of the relevant socioeconomic conditions that were profiled in Work Package .2. This forecast is made assuming that no hydroelectric development occurs, and is an important input to the second preliminary impact study of Work Package 3. In addition to the two preliminary impact studies above, additional preli- minary impact studies may be conducted for alternative access routes and transmission corridors, and other issues and concerns, as appropriate. The need for these additional studies will become apparent during the course of Phase I. The two-phase study is designed to make effective use of existing literature, studies, models, and highly qualified researchers with socio- economic impact analysis and Alaska experience; the first three of these elements serve to provide basic information and relevant methodologies, and reduce the likelihood of duplicating effort; the_last element contributes toward ensuring that the most appropriate data bases are accessed, the most suitable methodologies applied, and that the results are evaluated and applied in a manner which supports the objectives of the overall project. Close coordination and frequent information exchange with other disciplines of the study, specifically recreation, fisheries, wildlife, and land use, will further enhance the study effort. Methodologies for each work package are provided in Subsections 2.2 -2.5. Substantial detail is provided for each work package. However, if further detai 1 is desired, the reader is referred to the En vi ron menta 1 Studies Procedures Manual for Subtask 7.05: Socioeconomic Analysis. 2.2 -Work Package 1: Literature Review The objectives of this work package are to: 1) review impacts of other power projects and assess their potential relevance to a hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin; and 2} identify sources of social and economic data and determine the quality of and 11 gaps 11 in such data. 12 The first objective is to be accomplished by collecting and screening socioeconomic impact studies for hydroelectric projects simi 1 ar to the range of potential hydroelectric developments in the Upper Susitna Basin and other types of electricity-generating projects with major socioeconomic impacts. Several studies are to be selected for detailed review according to criteria relating to the anticipated characteristics of a hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. The criteria for selecting studies are shown in Table 1. At least two of the studies are to be other than hydroelectric. One is to be a large fossil fuel facility and the other is to involve a large scale nuclear power project. Next, a format for compi 1 i ng the impacts cited in each study is to be developed. Table 2 illustrates the basic format with headings. The headings refer to major impact areas which either directly, indirectly, or potent1ally affect socioeconomic variables. Finally, study impacts are to be assessed for relevance to Alaska according to geographic area and degree. This assessment will yield a list of impacts, by type, geographic area, and degree, which could be relevant for the preliminary impact studies of Work Package 3. This assessment will not be exhaustive. It will serve primarily as a guide for further research in Work Packages 2, 3, and 4. The format for providing the results of the assessment is partially presented in Table 3; the remainder of the format is similar in structure to that shown and it covers additional types of impacts such as community attitudes, economy, etc. In this format, the impacts are listed in generalized form. They must be related to the speci- fics of a Susitna hydroelectric project and its environment. This process, to be conducted in Work Package 2, will permit refinement and further spe- cification of potential impacts as to geographic area and degree. The second objective, to identify sources of data and the apparent quality of and gaps in such data, is to be accomplished by developing and imple- menting data collection and interview guides. The end product will be: a) an extensive bibliography of data sources numbered in alphabetical order; 13 (""") :I: );:o ::0 ):> (""") -I rr1 ::0 1-1 (/) -I 1-1 Hydroelectric Power Large scale Hydroelectri (Over 1000 MW Capacity) (""") ..... (/) 3: -uo -I c );:o"'Tl )::o (/) (""") to rr1 -I (/) I I rr1 "' Recent JFrom 1977 on) rr1 Vl I (""") -I rr1 ..- -I c:: (""") ..... a -I 0 ..... "' In Alaska :z "'a (/) (""") (/) ::0 0 ..... (""") Remoteness -I ..... rn 0 ::0 rr1 ....... (""") );:o 0 Nuclear Power :z 0 ::: ..... Fossil Fuel Power (""") Involves a Anadramous Fisheries IT'I rn r-(/) rn n Foreign 3:::0 rn ,_. :z "t:l -I-I Involves Native (/) ..... < American Groups rr1 T-ABLE 2 FORMATS FOR COMPILATION OF IMPACTS FRm1 RELEVANT ENERGY IMPACT STUDIES PROJECT: Title Lead Agency Date, Type of Study or Document Applicant or Responsible Office Descriptive Characteristics Generating Capacity Scope Cost Land Use and Features Wildlife Aquatic Species and Water Quality Socioeconomic Categories Population Housing Tax Base and Revenues Employment Public Services Community Attitudes Energy Cultural Resources Recreation Aesthetics COMMENTS: Pertaining to study format, scope, and quality. 15 DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT + L,R + L ? L ? L,R + L,R o L + L ? R TABLE 3 IMPACTS Of REPRESENTATIVE POWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS: POTENTIAL RELEVANCE FOR THE PROPOSED SUSITNA PROJECT TYPE OF IMPACT Land Use and Features Total acreage required by project facilities and right-of-ways. Total acreage of land indirectly impacted by project facili- ties and right-of-way. Short-term impacts may be less substantial than the long-term impacts. Patterns of ownership and induced changes. Changes in uses of land. Value of land and natural resources above and below ground 1 est/gained. Changes in potential uses of land (wilderness or roadless areas, National Scenic River, etc.) Potential for seismic activity. Overall "productivity" of land could increase. Increased accessibility will affect land and resource values. Opportunities for flood protection. Degree of impact: + is relatively large; o is relatively small. ? is uncertain. Geographic area of impact: L is the Upper Susitna area (local) R is the railbelt and the state (i.e., outside the upper Susitna area). 16 and b) a set of Economic Data Collection Matrix sheets that serve to orga- nize the data· sources by descriptive characteristics. The draft format for this Economic Data Collection Matrix is shown in Table 4. It is apparent from the matrix structure that it can be (and has been) continually updated. 2.3 -Work Package 2: Socioeconomic Profile Development The purpose of this work package is to collect~ compile and analyze data on socioeconomic conditions for the development of socioeconomic profi- les that can then be utilized in the preliminary impact studies {Work Package 3) and the forecasting of socioeconomic conditions (Work Packages 4 and 5). For the purposes of this analysis, socioeconomic conditions are to be broken down into socioeconomic categories and variables. These categories and variables are to be qualitatively assessed for probability of being impacted by a ~ydroelectric develop- ment in the Upper Susitna Basin. The potential degree of impact on each variable is to be estimated in a qualitative manner. The end product will be a matrix showing the probability of a variable being impacted {either high or low) and the degree of impact (relatively large or small/negligible), by study area. Study areas, previously lacking clear geographic definition, are to be defined quite precisely. A discussion of the methods to be used for defining study areas and socioeconomic variables is provided in Appendix A. Next, data collection guides are to be developed and implemented for each of the relevant variables. Compilation formats are to be developed for the variables. The final items in this work package wi 11 be to describe and begin to analyze the compiled baseline data and develop socioeconomic profiles. These will include some analysis of socioecono- mic trends and factors of change in each of the study areas. 2.4 -Work Package 3: Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Studies 17 .... CD TABLE 4 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) TYPE OF DATA AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE c-~~~-~"~~~~~ ~~""----·-----------·--------.---··- R.U. 1 R.S. 2 O.M. 3 R.U. R.S. D.M. R.U. R.S. D.M. R.U. R.S. O.M. -... 1R.U. = regular updates of data issued. 2R.S. =recent study. One time report with data within 1978-1980 period 3 O.M. =dated material. Data for period 1977 and prior. The objective of this work package is to identify and "red flag 11 potential socioeconomic impacts stemming from: (a) alternative hydroelectric deve- lopment project plans in the Susitna Basin; (b) the selected hydroelectric development project plan; and (c) alternative access routes and transmission facilities, and other issues and concerns, as appropriate. It is anticipated that work will begin on part (a) during January, 1981. Specifically, for alternative hydroelectric development project plans in the Susitna Basin, FO&A, Inc. will contribute socioeconomic impact infor- mation to Acres American Inc. as requested or needed under Subtasks 6.06, 6.07, and 6.08 of the Plan of Study. FO&A, Inc. will determine the types of and relative magnitudes for potential socioeconomic impacts for each alternative project plan by study area. Socioeconomic variables (descriptors of socioeconomic conditions) that are most likely to be signi- ficantly impacted during operations and construction phases will be iden- tified for each alternative. This will be a qualitative assessment. Next, categories of socioeconomic variables that are most likely to be impacted over the long term (operating phase) will be identified by study area. FO&A, Inc. plans to use a matrix as a means for presenting these impacts. The column headings will be alternative hydroelectric project plans and the rows will be impact categories (i.e., categories of socioeconomic variables). The alternative project plans will be grouped by study area. This will allow for comparison of project impacts among study areas as well as com parison of different project plan impacts within a study area. Additionally, sensitive or key socioeconomic categories such as government revenues, total labor demand, transportation, and unemployed labor, might be further analyzed and presented through appropriate variables; and highly qualified, gross quantitative estimates of changes in such variables could be forthcoming for each alternative project plan, as data and information permit. A similar analysis and matrix will be developed for construction phase impacts for each alternative project, as available information permits. This depends in part upon engineering and economic data and information available from Acres American, Inc. 19 There will be a discussion of impacts that are common to each alternative project plan and impacts that are unique to one or more alternative project plans. Emphasis will be placed upon addressing: (1) the potential impacts created by the influx and efflux of construction and operations work forces; (2) the approximate proportion of jobs likely to be held by current A 1 ask a residents and the characteristics of these jobs (e. g., seasona- lity, skill level, short-term, long-term, etc.); (3) potential changes in personal income; (4) apparent shortages of public services, facilities, and housing; (5) anticipated population changes/shifts and their potential effects on the existing conmunities; (6} potential financial impacts on boroughs and local government entities; (7) potential impacts on transpor- tation systems; and (8} impacts on fish and wildlife use patterns. Next, potential socioeconomic impacts of the selected project plan will be i dent ifi ed and assessed. Most or all of these impacts wi 11 have already been identified and qualitatively addressed in the preliminary impact ana- lysis for alternative project plans. Any further potential impacts not identified in the previous analysis will be identified at this time; thus, an additional increment of impacts may be identified at this point. The product of this part of Work Package 3 will be a qualitative assessment of potential impacts of the selected project plan on all socioeconomic categories and on sensitive or key variables within these categories. It will pro vi de highly qualified, gross quantitative estimates of changes in these selected variables from the baseline forecasted values of Work Package 4. In contrast, the impact analysis of Work Package 6 wi 11 have the benefit of two quantitative forecasts, one with and the other without the selected alternative(s). It will provide for defensible quantitative estimates of changes in most variables from the baseline forecast values. 2.5 -Work Package 4: Forecast of Future Socioeconomic Conditions in the Absence of a Susitna Project The objective of this work package is to develop a forecast of socioecono~ mic conditions under the assumption that no hydroelectric development 20 occurs in the Upper Susitna Basin. This work package will begin by iden- tifying and collecting relevant socioeconomic models and studies. All relevant forecasting models used regularly or occassionally by Alaska institutions are to be identified and information on them collected. Other potentially relevant models and studies, whether specific to Alaska or not, are to be identified and collected. This literature search and collection should be coordinated with Work Package 1 to the extent feasible. Next, criteria are to be developed to describe and evaluate the studies and models methodologies, including their levels of geographic disaggregation and quality of data used. Draft evaluation guides are shown in Figure 2. These guides are to be applied to each relevant study or model. The next step to selecting a model type is to develop criteria to assist with screening the models and methods for use as forecasting tools. Criteria/factors to be considered will include: -time and cost restraints (e.g., utilizing an existing Alaska-specific model would probably be more cost-effective than using a lower 48 model); -need for a model that assesses both quantitative and qualitative factors in a theoretically rigorous manner and meets or exceeds -generally acceptable standards for simi 1 ar types of impact assess- ments; need for a model capable of assessing impacts at the .. micro level .. (Study Areas 1 and 2 in Figure 3) and the 11 macro level 11 (Study Areas 3 and 4 in Figure 3); and -need for a model flexible with respect to data needs, both in terms of availability of data on a given topic and in terms of the availability of time-series data for a particular variab}e. · {It will be very important to coordinate the application of this screening factor with the dat~ identification, collection, and compilation efforts of Work Packages 1 and 2). 21 FIGURE 2 MODEL CATEGORIZATION AND EVALUATIO'IJ CRITERIA MODEL-SPECIFIC: 1. Name of Model/Issuing Agency: 2. Literature citation: 3. Contact person/phone: 4. Alaska or Lower 48 model? AK Lower 48 (Specify area) 5. Type of Analysis: Regression Trend Economic Base Input-Output Qualitative 6. Disaggregation by geographical area (zones): (Try to relate to Census Divisions' Statewide ---- Regional ______ {Specify, i.e. Railbelt, Southeast, etc.) Subregional {Specify by individual census division or cities/towns/ ------villages) 7. Frequency of forecasting: 8. Time frame for forecast: 22 9. Input assumptions (Was a systematic approach used in developing assumptions? Were the assumptions varied to test the sensitivity results to changes in assumptions? Are the assumptions reasonable?) 10. Scenarios (if used): (Was a systematic approach used in scenaria development? Are the scenarios reasonable?) 11. Feedback effects: (Are there any? Were they accounted for?) 12. How often is model updated? 23 13. Can we access model? If so, what are costs and conditions? Items 14-19 for Alaska models only. VARIABLE-SPECIFIC: 14. Variables utilized: (These should be c~tegorized to either directly or by association to correspond with Work Package 1 Alaska Socioeconomic Data Collection Guide categories. For each model reviewed, fill out a set of variable work sheet(s) (sample follows) . . 15. Data sources utilized are generally Primary ___ _ Secondary ___ _ (Variable work sheets used in item 14, above, and Work Package 1 give detailed information on data sources.) 16. Completeness of data --were there gaps? How did this bias result? (Variable work sheets used in item 14, above, include this question.) 17. Currency of data (see variable work sheets from item 14, above). 18. Reliability {quality) of data: {see variable work sheets from item 14, above). 19. Geographical area. 24 For Alaska models only. Reference item 14. t10DEL: SUBSETS: VARIABLE WORK SHEET Data Sources: (specify if primary or secondary) Completeness of data: Geographical area: Currency of data: Reliability of data: Data Sources: (specify if primary or secondary) Completeness of data: Geographical area: Currency of data: Reliability of data: 25 N 0'1 0 ·. FIGURE 3 STUDY AREAS 1},-~ • • • \ Fairbanks Study Area 1 Upper Susitna River Basin Study Area 2 Study Area 3 These factors and criteria and any others that are subsequently identified, are to be applied to the models and methods reviewed. Based on this analysis, one or a combination of model types is to be selected. In addition, the models and methods are to be examined for direct utilization as forecasting tools in the forecast of socioeconomic conditions. The results of this examination are to be presented in a matrix format to faci- litate comparison of models and methods. 27 3-RESUL TS AND DISCUSSION OF BASELINE STUDY 3 -RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF BASELINE STUDY This section describes recent and current socioeconomic conditions in geographic areas that could be impacted by hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. This socioeconomic profile will be utilized in the preliminary impact studies (Work Package 3) and the forecasting of socioeconomic conditions (Work Package 4). This section is organized in 10 subsections. The first subsection introduces the reader to reviews and analyses that serve to "lay the foundation" and structure for the socioeco- nomic baseline study. This introduction includes a brief summary of the literature review (Work Package 1); a review of the processes used to define: socioeconomic conditions and variables and study areas; and a pre- liminary analysis of conditions and variables most likely to be impacted in each study area. This analysis provides substantial guidance for selecting and emphasizing key socioeconomic conditions and variables in the baseline description. Subsections 1.2 through 3.9 provide the baseline description of socioeconomic conditions. Most of these sections are descriptive rather than analytical and do not look toward the future. Further analysis and identification of factors of change are treated as part of Work Package 4 during 1981. This section concludes with Subsection 3.10 which summarizes progress to date on methodological development in Work Package 4. 3.1 -Introduction The construction and operation of a hydroelectric facil it.v on the Susitna River could have an effect on the residents in the surrounding region by impacting socioeconomic conditions such as population, community structure, housing, supply and demand, public services, the economy, land use and recreation; essentially, the existing communities' fiber. To better understand what could happen to communities near the proposed hydroelectric development, Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. reviewed impacts of other energy projects and assessed their potential relevance to a hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. This was accomplished by collecting and screening socioeconomic impact studies for hydroelectric projects similar to the range of potential hydroelectric developments in the Upper Susitna Basin and other types of electricity-generating projects with major socioeconomic impacts. Several studies were selected for detailed review according to criteria relating to the anticipated charac- teristics of a hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. The selected studies and criteria are shown in Table 5. All but two of these studies were concerned with hydroelectric dam projects. The Boardman study dealt with a large scale coal-fired generating facility and the Washington Public Power Supply System study dealt with a large scale nuclear power project. These latter two were identified and reviewed for purposes of comparison and supplementation. Next, a format for compiling the impacts from each study was developed. Table 2 (see Subsection 2.2) illustrates the basic format with headinqs. The headings refer to major items or elements which either directly, indirectly, or potentially affect socioeconomic variables. Impacts cited in each study were compiled using this format. Finally, study impacts were assessed for relevance to Alaska according to geographic area and degree. This assessment yielded a list of impacts, by type, geographic area, and degree, which could be relevant for the prelimi- nary impact studies of Work Package 3. This assessment was by no means exhaustive. It served primarily as a guide for further research in Work Packages 2, 3, and 4. The results of the assessment are partially pre- sented in Table 3; the remainder of the results are provided in Appendix B. In these exhibits, the impacts are listed in generalized form. They must be related to the specifics of a Susitna hydroelectric project and its environment. This process, conducted in Work Package 2, permitted refine- ment and further specification of potential. impacts as to geographic area and degree. Several of the types of impacts shown in Table 3 (see Subsection 2.3 and Appendix B) are not the primary responsibility of this socioeconomic analy- sis. Some examples are land use and features, cultural resources, and 32 TABLE 5 CHARACTERISTICS OF SELECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT STUDIES PROJECT 1. Dickey-Lincoln School lakes 2. Boardman 3. Susitna 4. Green Lake 5. Marysville Lake 6. Swan Lake 7. Terror Lake 8; Tyee lake 9. Solomon Gulch 10. N. Fork Stanislaus 11. Bad Creek 12. WPPSS* * Washington Public Power Supply System I s.. OJ 3 0 c.. u ..... s.. .., u OJ -OJ 0 s.. "'0 >, :z: <> + <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> SELECTION CRITERIA u ...... s..- ~~ OJ•r-..... u ~9 s..co "'0 u >, -:z: 3 c:: s.. ::l: 0 OJ OJ 3 ..... 0 "' Ill 0 100 "' "' 1/) c.. uo 0'1 ~ OJ V1 ........ ........ Ill c:: s.. .., "' OJ "' OJS.. c::E ..... +-' OJ C"'OJ OJO ex:: 0 ..... s.. > us.. E u 100 OJI..L. c:: OJ ::l ....J-o::-...... 0:: z + <> <> <>: <> + + + + . <>~+ <> + <> <> + <> <> + <> <> + <> <> + + + <> + s.. OJ 3 0 c.. ..... OJ ::l I..L. ..... ..... V1 V1 0 L.J... + II I DESCRIPTIVE ELEMENTS 1_1 I Ill OJ ...... s.. OJ ..c: OJ Ill V1 >C.. ...... ..... ::l I..L. +-'0 "' s.. 1/) Z(..!:) ::l cno V1C:: OJE c:: OJIO >o 0) > u r-s.. ...... ........... 0"'0 OJ OS->co s.. > OJ c::c:: 0 c::E ~cC I..L. ...... ex:: + + <> <> <> <> <> <> + Determining characteristic <:> Other characteristic 33 wildlife. These were included, however, because they do have implications relevant to this analysis. The second objective, to identify sources of data and the apparent quality of and gaps in such data, was accomplished by developing and implementing data collection and interview guides. The end product was: a) an exten- sive bibliography of data sources numbered in alphabetical order; and b) a set of Economic Data Collection Matrix sheets that serve to organize the data sources of a) by descriptive characteristics. A sheet from this Economic Data Collection Matrix is shown in Table 6. It is apparent from the matrix structure that it can be (and has been) continually updated. This matrix also facilitated the identification and extraction of relevant data to be included in the socioeconomic baseline. Work Package 2 began by further defining socioeconomic conditions, cate- gories, and variables. The final list of categories and variables is shown in Appendix C. Next, these categories and variables were qualitatively assessed for proba- bility of being impacted by a hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. The potential degree of impact on each variable was also estimated in a qualitative manner. The end product was a matrix showing the probability of a variable being impacted {either high or low) and the degree of impact {relatively large or small/ negligible), by study area. This product is provided in Appendix D. Study areas were defined by applying the criteria presented in Subsection 2.3 and Appendix A. The areas are shown in Figure 3 and defined below. 3.1.1 -Study Area 1 -Immediate Impact Area Includes the project site; portions of the transmission lines; access corridors; and some staging areas. 34 w 01 TABLE 6 ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) TYPE OF DATA : EMPLOY AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R. U. 1 R.s.2 D.M. 3 R.U. R.S. D.M. R.U. R.S. D.M. R.U. R.S. Employment/Unemployment Levels 5,9,10, 26 5,9 21, 5,9 37 31 4,5, 15 23 10, 35 10 9 t 10, 36 11 5,9, 10, 26 5,9 21 ,35 5,9, 37 4,5, 15 Type of Employment 23 10, 10 6,9, 36 10 5,9,10, 16 5,9, 16 35 5,9, 37 4,5, 16 Income Levels (personal) 23 10 10 6,9, 10 Projected Employment/Income 9' 10 9,10 9,10 4,9, 15 10,13 Other 3lb 13a 1 R.U. = regular updates of data issued. 2 R.S. = recent study. One time report with data within 1978-1980 period. 3 D.M. =dated material. Data for period 1977 and prior. a = job openings; b = location of jobs. D.M. 14 I 14 14 3.1.2 -Study Area 2 -Mat-Su/Valdez Area Includes all of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough (census division) and potentially the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division. Treatment of this area will be both in the aggregate and by selected communities (places). This study area represents the primary political units within which the project and, to a substantial degree, its impacts may occur. The Valdez census division may be included in this study area if access routes from the Denali Highway are utilized. In this case, it is felt that substantial impacts may occur along the Richardson Highway corridor from Valdez to the Denali Highway and on north to some extent. It is possible that Valdez could become a port of entry for a large volume of supplies for the project. This activity will create attendant impacts. Also, simply due to the corridor's proximity to the project, and relatively undeveloped socioeconomic base, substantial impacts could accrue to the area. Census divisions were selected to represent Study Area 2 (as well as Study Area 3 below) because: (1) they are the smallest geographic areas in Alaska for which economic and social information (beyond the number of inhabitants by sex, age and race) are consistently available; and (2) many of the places within the Mat-Su and, particularly the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division, are not true communities hut simply clusters of population with little or no economic or social structure. Further, in places where there is apparently some economic and/or social structure, little is known about this structure. More study is needed on this subject before places serve as the basic unit of analysis in a project of this dimension. Nevertheless, as indi- cated above, significant effort wi 11 be made to co 11 ect, campi 1 e, and analyze secondary information concerning places. 36 3.1.3 -Study Area 3 -Railbelt Region This area wi 11 form the basis for most of the quantitative ana'lysi s regarding many of the economic variables. These variables include labor/employment, income distribution, and industry impacts. The region constitutes the Alaska area from which many of the inputs for the project will be drawn. It also represents the output or service area to which electricity generated by the project will be providerl. Analysis of the Alaska socioeconomic structure and distribution pattern 1 ed to the inclusion in this area of major census di visions of the southcentral and interior Alaska, including: Anchorage, Kenai-Cook Inlet, Seward, Valdez-Chitina-Whittier, Matanuska-Susitna, Southeast Fairbanks, and Yukon-Koyukuk. The 1 atter will be subdivided into the most relevant parts (see Figure 4). 3.1.4 Study Area 4-State This area will include data aggregated for the State of Alaska. Finally, as a prerequisite to drafting the socioeconomic profiles, data collection guides were developed and implemented for relevant variables and associated study areas. Data compilation formats were then developed and implemented. The boundaries shown in Figure 3 provided the geographic guidelines for the development of the socioeconomic profiles, with indivi- dual places/communities not within these boundaries being treated where appropriate (e.g. Chulitna, Gold Creek, Denali, and Cantwell). The approach discusses each relevant category of variables separately; i.e., the first category was described in the context of each relevant study area, then the second category was described in the context of each rele- vant study area, and so forth. For Study Area 2, information was presented at the place/community level of detail where secondary data allowed. These places/communities included: Talkeetna, Willow, Wasilla, Palmer, Glennallen, Paxson, Copper Center, Gulkana and Gakona. 37 3.2 -Population/Community 3.2.1 -State Population Alaska is characterized as a land of extremes, ranging from extremes in temperature and landmass to extremes in population, economy and lifestyles. It encompasses more land than any state in the United States, yet is the least populated, with approxi-mately half of the population residing in Anchorage. Current (1980) estimates of Alaska and Anchorage population are 400,331 and 173,992, respectively. Alaska 1 s history has been shaped by the existence of abundant natural resources and man 1 S attempts to realize the benefits associated with these resources. The best indicator of these events is the fluctuation in the level of population over the years. Non-native settlement first began with Russi an fur trappers in pursuit of precious and valuable furs. The first period of rapid growth occurred between the years 1880 and 1890 with the discovery of gold and the beginning of what became known as the Klondike Gold Rush. This was followed by a period of relative inactivity, with first an efflux of population and then a slight influx during the depression in response to the increase in the price of gold. The second dramatic increase occurred in 1939 due to the military presence in preparation for World War II. The construction of the Al-Can Highway in 1942 established the first overland connection with Alaska and contributed to the increase in population. The most recent increase in population has been observed si nee 1970 with the discovery of oi 1 in Prudhoe Bay and construction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline. The preliminary 1980 census figures reveal a 32.3 percent increase in total Alaska population in the 10 year period from 1970 to 1980. The population changes that have occurred over the past 100 years are displayed in Figure 4. In 1900, the composition of the population was disproportionately 72 percent male dominated. However, with improvements in communication~ 38 w \0 12 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 0 -] POPULATION YEAR 1880 FIGURE 4 TOTAL POPULATION OF ALASKA 1110 (100 YEARS) 1880 -1980 ALASKA TOTAL POPULATION 1900 NOME t----t GOLO RUSH I(LONDIKk GOLD RUSH 1900 t-----1 W.W.I 1810 1820 1---t GREAT DEPRESSION ALCAN HWY. 1948 11bl W.W. II RECESSION ALAS~A 5TATH<OOO 11140 1t50 11HIO 1170 NORTH SLOPE t---t OIL LEASE PIPE LINE AUCTION 1170 Source: Alaska Department of Labor. December 1979. Alaska Population Overview. Juneau, AK. p. 7. 460 ~ ~ :::! 0 z 400 i .. a c 1: J&o z 0 .. 300 2011 1&o 100 0 transportation, and economic stability, and with the growth in govern- ment, the sex composition has stabilized to where the population is only slightly male dominated at 54 percent. As mentioned previously, roughly 50% of the total Alaskan population resides in Anchorage and approximately 70 percent reside in the Southcentral and Fairbanks portion of the state. Because this region encompasses a large area geographically, 1s strategically located in relation to the lower 48 states, and provides a wide array of economic possibilities ranging from agriculture and fishing to petroleum, coal, and mineral extraction and development, it has observed a considerable increase in population in recent years. Table 7 reveals a 42 percent increase in population between 1970 and 1980, slightly higher than the 32 percent average for the state. 3.2.2 -Study Area 2 When the focus becomes the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division, the recent increases in popu- lation are even more substantial. For the same period 1970-1980, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough witnessed an increase of 175 percent and the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division increased 71 percent. The construction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline was the single greatest factor contributing to the increase in population in the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division. The Mat-Su Borough was also affected by the construction since it was a supplier of labor and ser- vices and a place of residence for workers; it felt an equal, if not greater, effect. The increasing size and importance of the municipa- lity of Anchorage had an effect on the Borough in two di sti net ways: 1) the Borough became an easily accessible recreational area for Anchorage residents; and 2) Anchorage became a supplier of jobs and economic opportunities for Borough residents. Indicative of the latter is the fact that 37 percent of the Mat-su Borough residents commute to 40 1980 Preliminary Census 1970 Census Net Change Percent Change Change 1n TABLE 1 TOTAL RESIDENT POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF CHANGE BY STUDY AREA: 1970 -1980 S d A tu ly rea 2 d Stu y Area 3* s d tu ly Area Matanuska-Susitna Valdez- Borough Cordova 17,938 8,546 285,011 400,331 6,509 5,000 200,023 302,361 +11 ,429 +3,546 +84,988 +97,970 +175 +71 +42 +32 Mi 1 i tary Pop +141 +58 -4,730 -8,102 Natural Increase +1,430 +844 +45,107 +61,142 (Births & Deaths) Impl1ed net Civilian 9,858 2,644 40,111 44,930 Migration *Fairbanks, S.E. Fairbanks Mat-Su, Anchorage, Kenai Peninsula, and Valdez-Cordova Census Divisions Source: Alaska Department of Labor, Administrative Services Division. January 1, 1981. Alaska's 1980 Population: A Preliminary Overview. Juneau, AK. p. 26. 41 4 or through Anchorage on a daily basis, averaging 100 miles per day {Overall Economic Development Program, Inc., 1980; p. XV). What has transpired is a relationship where the Mat-Su Borough is a bedroom com- munity to Anchorage. 3.2.3 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough 3.2.3.1 -Demography The gold finds that brought so many miners to Alaska in the late 19th century paved the way for the farmers who settled in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley a few years later. The mines provided the needed market for the farmers until their closing in the 1940•s. Homesteaders first appeared in 1911 and within five years there were approximately 500 established residents in the Knik, Wasilla and Palmer area. The completion of the railroad in 1923 and the federal project to re 1 ocate 200 fami 1 i es in the va 11 ey frem the cant i guou s states during the depression spurred activity in the area. Initially, the land tracts were limited to 40 and 80 acres, however, it became uneco- nomical to farm such small tracts and consequently this limitation had a detrimental effect on the development of the valley as an agri- cultural region. Historically, the Borough has been an area for cabins and recreational housing, catering predominately to Anchorage residents. In recent years, a large portion of the homesteading in the Borough has been in the interest of land speculation. One example is Big Lake a major recreation area in the Borough, where the majority of the houses are owned by Anchorage residents. Evidence of this is the fact that approximately 60 percent of the Borough•s tax notices are sent to Anchorage addresses {1976). (Matanuska-Susitna Planning Department, 1978; p.38.) The current (1980) estimate of the population in the Matanuska- Susitna Borough is 17,938, of which approximately 51 percent are male; 42 49 percent female; 81 percent married; 12 percent single; and 7 percent divorced. In 1970, 97 percent of the adult population were Caucasian; 2 percent were American Native; and 1 percent were black (see Table 8). The present composition of the population is unknown, but will be available when the 1980 census data is compiled. The average educa- tional level for adults is 13 years with 20 percent having 16 or more years of education. (Matanuska Electric Association, Inc., September 1980; p.4). The mean household income for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is $30,627, despite one of the highest unemployment rates in the state of approxi-mately 20 percent. A better understanding is obtained of the Borough and its individual communities through examination of the transiency of its residents. The rapid increase in population of 175 percent in the last ten years gives empirical evidence of the growing attraction of the Borough as a place to reside. The housing study conducted by Policy Analysts, Limited in 1980 confronted this issue and provides comprehensive detail of the demographics and tenure of the Borough residents. The most obvious indicator of the transiency and recent growth in the Borough is the fact that 56 percent of the residents surveyed have 1 ived in the Borough for five years or less and only 27 percent have lived in the area over 10 years. The average length of residence in the Mat-Su Valley is 9.3 years while the median is only 5.0 years. While 45.9 percent of the residents have moved in the past three years, 26.4 percent have moved two or more times. The mean number of moves per household during the past three years is 1.07. Palmer and Butte have the most stable populations with average lengths of residence of 13.0 and 12.4 years respectively. Wasilla with an average of 7.0 years, has the newest population. Only 3 percent of the residents were born in the Borough, with the majority, 44 percent, having moved from Anchorage, and an additional 15 percent coming from / other areas of the state. 43 RACE Mat-Su Eskimo 91 Indian 138 Aleut 43 TOTAL NATIVE 272 White 6,189 Black 12 Filipino 1 Japanese 4 Other 31 TOTAL 6,509 TABLE 8 RACE OF THE POPULATION BY STUDY AREA -1970 - Stud) Area 2 Valdez-Ch1t1na-Study Area % Whittier % 3 1.4 110 3.5 3,509 2.1 413 13.3 4,359 0.6 178 5.7 1,488 4.1 701 22.6 9,356 95.0 2,378 76.7 180,997 0.18 9 0.3 8,065 0.01 0 0.0 1' 158 0.06 3 0.09 622 0.47 7 0.22 1,159 100.0 3,098 100.0 200,778 Study Area % 4 % 1.7 27,797 9.2 2.1 16,276 5.4 0.7 6,581 2.1 4.6 50,654 16.8 90.0 236,767 78.8 4.0 8,911 2.9 0.5 1,498 0.5 0.3 916 0.3 0.5 1,636 0.5 100.0 300,382 100.0 Source: Alaska Department of Labor. 1980. Annual Planning Information, FY 1981. Juneau, AK; p. 6. E4/F When asked what the reasons were for moving to the Borough, there was no one reason that dominated, but rather a wide array of responses (Overall Economic Development Program, Inc., 1980; pp. 81-84). This is in many respects a reflection of the composition of the Borough. Of the 868 reasons, 17.2 percent are work and job related; 14.5 percent are negative comments of the Anchorage/urban lifestyle; 13.4 percent focus on the rural, country-style atmosphere; 6.3 percent point out the general Alaskan opportunities and lifestyle; and 9.0 percent want an affordable home or land. The majority of Matanuska-Susitna Borough adults are employed in construction (17 percent) with the second and third largest employment sectors being retail trade (11 percent) and transportation, utilities, and communications (10 percent). Occupational staffing patterns reveal that across all employment sectors, professional/technical occupations form the single largest category at 20 percent. 3.2.3.2 -Population Distribution The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is the second 1 argest organized borough in the State of Alaska, covering a total of 23,000 square miles, which amounts to approximately 4 percent of the total area of the state. Yet despite this large geographic area, only about one quarter of the Borough is currently inhabited. The remainder of the Borough is more suitable for recreation, mining, and other forms of mineral develop- ment. Of the inhabited area, approximately 90 percent of the popul a- t ion lives within a 25 mile radius of Wasilla {Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. April 1978; p. 46). This area includes the two most populated communities; Palmer (2,143) and Wasilla (1,548). The remainder of the population is distr·ibuted along the Parks Highway and Railroad corridor. Several hundred inhabitants are scattered throughout the wilderness regions accessible only by water or air. 45 3.2.3.3 -Communities Communities are not necessarily defined by political incorporation; if this were the case, then Palmer, Wasilla, and Houston would be the only communities in the Borough. The formation of communities is somewhat arbitrary and relies on the bond of common interest. The feeling of a community can be in response to living in an isolated area, such as Skwenta, where access is dif- ficult and there is a great reliance on aircraft; to living on an iso- lated road such as in Petersville; to living along the railroad or near a railroad house such as Talkeetna; to living near a mine, or some natural or manmade feature; or to having similar economic goals. There are many such settlements in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough that share one or more mutual interests and have developed into communities. Communities range in size from several individuals to over 2,000. Commercial development coincides with the community and the demands for local services. Ordinarily this results in the development of a gas station and general store. In other areas the development is much more extensive. The major population centers in the Borough are: Palmer, Wasilla, Big Lake, Eska-Sutton, Willow, Houston, and Talkeetna. The growth and current populations of these and other communities in the Borough are shown in Table 9. Following are brief synopses of these major popula- tion centers: -Palmer: The only home rule city in the Borough. It is the primary commercial center for the residents of Palmer, Butte, Matanuska and Eska-Sutton, and offers a wide variety of services. Together with Wasilla, this area of the Borough is classified as a sub-commercial regional center within the Anchorage trading area. 46 TABLE 9 COMMUNITY POPULATION: MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH CENSUS DATA 1939, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1976, 1980 Community 1939 1950 1960 1970 1976 1980* Talkeeta --r3"l) --roo -n """"IS2" """128 """""2'65" Willow 78 38 384 134 Wasi 11 a 96 97 112 300 1566 1548 Palmer 150 890 1181 1140 1643 2143 Montana 39 33 76 40 Big Lake 74 36 721 412 Butte 559 448 2207 Chickaloon 11 43 22 62 20 Eska Sutton 14 54 215 89 496 Curry 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMMUNITY POPULATION: OTHER COMMUNITIES NOT IN MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH Community 1950 1960 1970 1976 1980* Nenana 242 286 382 493 47T Healy 79 503 333 Cantwel 1 85 62 95 Denali 3 Paxson 20 30 Glennallen 142 169 363 488 Copper Center 90 151 206 213 Gakona 50 33 88 85 Gulkana 65 51 53 111 *Alaska Department of Labor, Administrative Services Division. January 1, 1981. Alaska 1980 Population: A Preliminary Overview. Juneau, AK; pp. 14-24. Source: Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. April 1978. Phase I: Comprehensive Development Plan. Palmer, AK; p. 50. 47 -Wasilla: This community is strategically located along the Parks Highway, the Alaska Railroad, and the Palmer-Wasilla Road which leads to the Glenn Highway. Major commercial installations of all types can be found in Wasilla. The rapidly increasing population has intensified the need for municipal services. -Talkeetna: Tourism, particularly for hunting and fishing trips and mountain climbing expenditions, provides the main basis of the present economy of Ta 1 keetna. Talkeetna is the take-off point for c 1 i mbi ng expeditions to Mt. McKinley, and in the summer there is a great influx of tourists. There are several lodges in town and the majority of all businesses are oriented toward transients and tourists. Government employment, particularly railroad employment, is an important factor in the economy. The 1980 preliminary census count is 265, showing a 45 percent increase over the past 10 years. -Big Lake: Big Lake originally consisted M recreational cabins and homes owned almost exclusively by Anchorage residents. Over the past few years a permanent resident community has started to develop and services no longer cater only to transients. -Eska-Sutton: Originally an active coal mining community, it is now a community increasing in size with an economy based on the Palmer Correctional Center, and services to the Glenn Highway. Massive depo- sits of limestone located northeast of Eska-Sutton which could supply sufficient raw material for a cement company represent the greatest potential for new employment. -Houston and Willow: Both Houston and Willow are located along the Richardson Highway. They are small communities, Houston 3.93 and Willow 134, with scattered populations. Houston became a second class city in 1973 and primarily provides ser- vices to tourists along the highway and to its residents. 48 Willow is an unincorporated community. Its community activities are centered around the Willow Civic Center. In 1976, when Willow was designated as the site of the new capital, there was much land specula- tion and development activity in anticipation of what was to transpire. Willow has observed a 252 percent increase in population in the past 10 years. Many of the residents of Willow and Houston are construction workers who spend part of the year on homesteads and the rest of the year at construction sites in other parts of the state. 3.2.3.4 -Attitudes toward Economic Development When the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is viewed in its entirety as a com- munity, it is possible to determine the community concensus regarding future development. Highlights of a recent survey on this subject are discussed below. The survey was conducted by Policy Analysts, Limiterl and R. L. Endez in May 1980; the reader can refer directly to the docu- ment if more detail is desired. In general, the residents of the Borough are much more in favor of greater economic development than they are opposed. When asked on a scale of 1 to 7 if they were in favor of a lot more development (7} or no more development (1), the median was 4.6 (Table 10). Table 11 addresses the same question, hut has disaggregated the results by community. While the general trend is still towards greater econo- mic development, Willow and the communities to the north appear to be less in favor of development. Another indicator of community response to economic development is exhibited in Table 12. Displayed in this Table are economic develop- ment priority rank i ngs by community. Generally, the Borough residents are in agreement as to what would be most beneficial for economic 49 TABLE 10 ATTITUDE TOWARD DEVELOPMENT: MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH On a seven-point scale, with #1 indicating no more development and #7 representing a lot more developmentt where do you place yourself? % (n) 6.2 41 1 (No more development) 6.2 41 2 10.7 71 3 23.7 157 4 23.4 155 5 8.8 58 6 21.0 139 7 (A lot more development) 2 8 (Don • t -know) 15 9 (Missing) 4.6 Median Source: Policy Analystt limited and Dr. Richard L. Ender. May 1980. Mat-Su Housing and Economic Development Study: Survey findings; p.40. /K 50 TABLE 11 COMMUNITY ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT On a seven-point scale, with #1 indicating no more development and #7 representing a lot more development, where do you place yourself? North of Will ow Will ow Houston Wasilla Palmer 1-No more development 0 9.1 12.5 5.7 5.2 2 23.5 18.2 0 4.2 4.0 3 5.9 15.2 6.3 8.8 11.0 4 35.3 21.2 31.3 24.9 24.9 5 35.3 21.2 25.0 24.9 24.9 6 0 3.0 18.8 10.0 6.9 7-A lot more development 0 12.1 6.3 21.5 23.1 Source: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections; p. 12. /I 51 TABLE 12 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES North of Priority Willow " Willow % Houston % Wasilla " Palmer " High Tour* 94 Agr 100 Agr 100 Med 92 Med 90 85-100% Loan 88 Med 97 Mfg 94 Agr 89 Agr 89 Meat 88 Fish 91 Med 94 Fish 89 Fish 89 Fish 88 Ed/Res 91 Energy 94 Ed/ Res 89 Energy 89 Ret/Wh 88 Energy 91 Fish 93 Loan 88 Ed/Res 87 Loan 88 Meat 88 Meat 86 Loan 86 Timber 88 Capital 85 Loan 87 Energy 85 Dairy 87 Ca~ital 87 Med 82 Diary 82 Tour 81 Dairy 84 Meat 83 75-84% Mfg 82 Mfg 79 Ed/ Res 81 Mfg 84 Dairy 82 Agr 82 Ret/Wh 76 Ret/Wh 81 Ret/Wh 83 Mfg 82 Dairy 77 Mining 77 Ret/Wh 82 Energy 77 Tour 77 Capital78 _Pt. Mac 75 Tour 77 Pt.Mac 75 Knik C 71 Pt.Mac 72 Pt. Mac 73 Port 74 Timber 74 Favorab1 e Capital71 Meat 70 Knik C 69 Timber 74 Mining 72 60-74% Ed/Res 72 Rec 67 T&S 69 Knik C 72 Port 72 Rec 65 Timber 67 Fin/RE 67 Petro 67 Eli 68 Knik C 64 Port 67 T&S 67 Petro 68 Tour 64 Mining 63 Eli 62 Rec 66 Port 63 Rec 61 T&S 64 Knik C 65 Pt.Mac 59 Capital 59 Rec 55 Fin/RE 57 Fin/RE 51 Lower Port 59 Eli 50 50-59% EI I 59 Petro 50 Timber 53 Fin/RE 53 No Petro 47 T&S 49 H/C 44 H/C 49 H/C 47 Priority, Mining 47 Fin/RE 46 Gvt 31 Gvt 47 Gvt 42 less than T&S 47 Mining 42 Mil 13 Mil 24 Mi'l 26 50% H/C 24 H/C 42 Mil 18 Petro 39 Gvt 0 EI I 36 Gvt 27 Mil 21 * See page following for categor1es key. Source: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume I I : Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections; pp. 14-16. /COP 52 TABLE 12 (continued) Key: Industrial -Support Facilities Pt.Mac -Point MacKenzie Site Development Port -Deep Water Port at Point MacKenzie Knik C -Knik Ann Surface Crossing T&S -Transport and Storage Fcilities Petro -Petrochemical (Oil and gas} Industries Ell -Encouragement of Energy Intensive Industries H/C -Hovercraft and Port Facility to Connect Valleys with Anchorage Government & Services Gvt-Government Civilian Services (Federal, State, & local} Mil -Military Bases Med -Medical and Health Facilities Ed/Res -Educational and Research Facilities loan-Small Business loan Support Program Resources Development Fish -Fishing Industry (Processing & Hatchery Development} Agr -Increased Agricultural Development Meat -Red Meat Industry Development Dairy -Expanded Dairy Industry Timber-Timber (Wood Products, Pulp, etc.) Mining-Refining Hard Rock Minerals (Iron Ore, Copper, etc.} Commerce Mfg-Light Manufacturing (such as Printing or Furniture Making) Ret/Wh -Retail and Wholesale Business Fin/RE -Finance Banking, Real Estate Tourism Tour. -Tourism Rec -Recreational Site Development Capital Site Cap-Building New Capital at Willow Alternate Energy Energy-Alternate Energy Demonstration Projects {Wind, Solar, Peat, etc.) 53 prosperity, with the greatest va ri at ions observed once again between the Palmer/ Wasilla residents and the residents in the communities north of Willow. Where the communities north of Willow place highest priority on the development of Tourism (94 percent), Palmer and Wasilla rank it much lower (77 percent). The reverse is observed with the com- munities north of Willow placing a lower priority on medical facilities {82 percent), agriculture (82 percent), and educational and research facilities (71 percent). Wasilla ranks medical and agriculture deve- lopments as its number one and two priorities at 92 percent and 89 per- cent respectively. Educational and research facility development is priority ranked at 89 percent. A common thread throughout the Borough is the low priority placed on the development of military bases. 3.2.4-Valdez-Chitina-Whittier 3.2.4.1 -Background Valdez and the Copper River Region were originally settled by non- native explorers of Russian and European extraction in response to the gal d discoveries, and the need for a route from the coast to the interior deposits. As a result, Valdez became the principal port to the interior and later flourished with the discovery and development of copper deposits and with the construction of the Copper River and Northwestern Railway in 1911. In the early 20th century, Copper Center and Gulkana were established as U.S. Army telegraph stations and Gakona became a trading post. This, in conjunction with the construction of the Al-Can Highway, the Richardson Highway, and the Trans-Alaska pipe- line led to the genesis and development of many communities in this Region. 3.2.4.2 -Demography As indicated in Table 7, the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division was, and is, sparsely populated relative to the Matanuska-Susitna 54 Borough. It did not experience as dramatic an increase in population from 1970 to 1980 as the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. However, it did witness a 71 percent increase, considerably greater than the state average of 32 percent. In comparison to the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, the Valdez- Chitina-Whittier census division had a considerably greater native population in 1970, with native Americans constituting approxi-mately 22 percent of the total population. The majority of the residents were Caucasian {76. 7 percent} with Blacks accounting for approximately 0. 3 percent. This has in all likelihood changed somewhat as the population has increased from 3,098 to 6,225 for the Valdez-Cordova census area (excluding the Cordova census sub-area} during the 10 years period from 1970 to 1980. It should be noted that all attempts have been made to present census figures consistently. Difficulty arises due-to the fact that census boundaries changed from the 1970 designations of the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division and the Cordova census division to the incorporation of the two to produce the 1980 Valdez-Cordova cen- sus area. The 1980 Valdez-Cordova census area is divided into the cen- sus sub-areas of Prince William Sound, Cordova, and Copper River, however these sub-areas do not share common boundaries with the 1970 demarcations. To enable comparison between 1970 and 1980 figures, the Prince William Sound and Copper River census sub-areas are combined to closely approximate the boundaries of the 1970 Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division. The elimination of the Cordova census sub-area elimi- nates 2,321 people from the total population count for the Valdez-Cordova census area. The greatest influence on the area, and the composition of its popula- tion, was the introduction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline construction. The population in the area peaked during the height of the pipeline construction in 1976 and 1977 and has since tapered off. There are no 55 recent studies on the demographics of the area and until the 1980 cen- sus information becomes available, the most reliable sources of data are the Copper River Wrangell Socioeconomic Overview, prepared by Charles Logsdon, et al (Institute of Social and Economic Research and Agricultural Expermiment Station) in 1976; the Ahtna Region, Background for Regional and Community Planning, 1973, prepared by AEIDC; various other publications; and individual contacts. The City of Valdez is currently reviewing proposals for the development of an economic model for the City. This work will include the compiling and evaluation of primary socioeconomic data for the City and the immediate area. Access to the results of this study would enhance our ability to evaluate this region in greater detail. The only incorporated city within the area that has been desig-nated Study Area 2 is Valdez, which is classified as a first class, home rule city. The rest of the Region consists of unincorporated communities 1 ocated predominantly along the highways; the Richard son Highway, the Glenn Highway; and the the Tok cut-off leading from the Richardson Highway to the Al-Can Highway. These communities have developed in accordance with changes occurring on the coast and in the transpor- tation corridors. This is evidenced by the relative decline in popula- tion and economic activity in the area following the opening of the Parks Highway in early 1970's. Prior to its completion, the principal route from Anchorage and Valdez to Fairbanks was along the Richardson Highway. The re-routing of traffic along the Parks Highway resulted in a decrease in activity along the Richardson Highway thereby decreasing the demand for services. The reverse occurred with the construction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline, however, which was a temporary situation. 56 3.3 -Housing 3.3.1 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough The following section on housing in the Mat-Su Borough was extracted from the Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. 1980: pp. 72-86. 3.3.1.1 -Projection of Housing Stock There are substantial differences in the public estimates of the current housing stock of the Mat-Su Borough. Table 13 describes a pro- jection based on housing counts, employment data, and the 1979-80 housing survey prepared by Policy Analysts, Limited. At the end of 1979, there were an estimated 5,844 units in the Borough of which 5,546 are occupied. This produces a 5.1 percent vacancy rate {See Table 14). The housing units in the Borough are disproportionately single family (83 percent), with only a small number of multi-family (5.3 percent), or mobile homes {11.3 percent). There are also an estimated 21 "other" units others. including residences in commercial structures, teepees, and Vacancies are projected to vary by type of structure with multi-familiy having the highest vacancy rates. As can be noted, the survey results {Policy Analysts, Limited) of housing type closely approximate the projected counts, reinforcing the estimates made. Mobile homes and multi-family are slightly higher (less than one percent) due to the concentration of the survey samp 1 e in the road access areas of the Borough. Table 15 displays housing stock estimates for nine areas in the road access area of the Borough and a tenth roadless area. The subcommunity boundaries are not designed to represent political or service area demarcations, but merely to represent general areas for comparative purposes. The two largest concentrations of housing are found in the Wasilla {34.6 percent) and Palmer areas (25.7 percent). About three- 57 TABLE 13 HOUSING STOCK ESTIMATES, DECEMBER 1979 Survey Total Units Occu~ied Units Sam~le n % n % Total Units 5,844 100.0 5,546 100.0 100.0 Single Family 4,850 83.0 4,621 83.3 81.6 Multi-Family 310 5.3 282 5.1 5.6 Mobile Home 663 11.3 623 -11.2 12.4 Other 21 0.4 20 0.4 0.4 Source: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections; p. 76. 58 TABLE 14 ESTIMATED HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES TOTAL YEAR-ROUND OCCUPIED VACANT VACANCY AREA HOUSING UNITS UNITS UNITS RATES (%) Anchorage 1 56,823 51,054 5,769 10.2 Valdez 2 979 948 31 3.1 Fairbanks 1 11,809 10,737 1,072 9.1 Matanuska-Susitna 3 5,844 5,546 298 5.1 Valdez-Chitina- Whittier N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center. Fall 1980. Community Research Quarterly, A Socioeconomic Review. Fairbanks, AK; p. 81 2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10. December 1979. ·Alaska Petrochemical Company, Refinery and Petrochemical Facility: Environmental Impact Statement; Appendix Vol. II. Valdez, AK; p. II-93. 3 Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections, Palmer, AK; pp. 76. 59 TABLE 15 HOUSING STOCK ESTIMATES BY AREAS OF THE BOROUGH Areas 1 Talkeetna, Montana Caswel 1 2 Willow 3 Houston 4 Big Lake 5 Goose Bay, Knik, MacKenzie 6 Wasilla 7 Sutton, Chickaloon Independence Mine 8 Palmer 9 Butte 10 Roadless Areas TOTAL Total Year-Round Units n 'l 214 3.7 173 3.0 225 3.8 425 7.3 83 1.4 2,020 34.6 143 2.4 1,502 25.7 519 8.9 540 9.2 5,844 100.0% Estimated Recreational Units 97 274 92 530 13 133 2 Unknown 1,141 Source: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections; p. 76. 60 fifths of the stock is located in these two subcommunities of the Borough. Secondary concentrations are found in Butte and Big Lake with all other areas having less than four percent of the total stock. The roadless areas have an estimated 540 units. Housing in all areas of the Borough is predominantly single family simply because it composes 83 percent of the total stock. The small number of multi-family units are primarily clustered in two areas - Palmer and Wasilla (52 and 37 percent of the stock respectively). Other multi-family units are scattered, with only Butte and Big Lake with any measurable number. Mobile homes are more scattered throughout the Borough (in the road access areas). This is due to the small number of mobile home parks (most are in the Palmer area). It is esti- mated that 72.5 percent of the mobile homes are on individually-owned lots which leads to miscounting of many mobile homes as single family structures. In addition to an estimate of the year-round housing in the Mat-Su Borough, Table 15 notes the number of recreational units by area. A total of 1,141 of these units were estimated which is almost one-fifth of the total stock and emphasizes the importance of the recreational industry in the Valley. The greater Big Lake area has the highest con- centration of these units, followed by Willow. Reviewing the style of year-round housing in the Valley, the single family house varies considerably. The greatest percentage (28.3 percent) are one story on a slab or pilings! while 24.9 percent are one story with a basement; 23.4 percent are split level; and 15.5 percent are two story with or without a basement. In addition, 6.2 percent are log cabins and 1.7 percent, other cabins. Multi-family units are primarily duplexes (58 percent), but include structures with up to 18 units. Most have exterior entrances to the individual unit {66.7 percent). The townhouse design (row style) has 61 yet to have a strong showing in the Borough {6.1 percent). Mobile homes are predominantly the usual single-wide of varying length {82.9 percent), though 12.2 percent are double-wide, and 4.9 percent live in travel trailers. Except for the mobile homes, wood is used almost exclusively as a surface material for buildings. Other accommodations in the area are those that are referred to as transient facilities, i.e., lodges, motels, and campgrounds. Table 16 is an inventory of such facilities in Study Area 2. 3.3.1.2 -Ownership and Housing Payment The dominant pattern in the Mat-Su is owning the residence one lives in. This is largely predicated by the emphasis on the single family house as the preferred type of dwelling. As noted in Table 17, only 16.5 percent rent or live in a unit they do not own. This ranges from 12.2 percent for single family to 65.8 percent for multi-family. For owners (83.4 percent), the majority are purchasing their homes {59.4 percent) with the remainder {40.6 percent) owning their homes outright. This high proportion of outright owners appears to be due to an established subgroup of long-time state residents as well as the prosperity of the area during the pipeline period. Looking at multi- family homeowners, the bulk {92.4 percent) own or are purchasing the entire building. This suggests that condominium arrangements are a very small part of the multi-family market (2.6 percent). The high proportion of outright ownership produces a high percent of households who currently do not make any payment for their housing (36.8 percent). This tends to underemphasize current payments as the average for all households is $253 and the median is $200. The median payment for only those currently making payments is $400; the median payment for a single family home is $436; multi-family, $350; and mobile home, $255. While the mobile homes appear to be the least costly option, when land payments are added, the median cost is 62 TABLE 16 INVENTORY OF TRANSIENT ACCOMMODATIONS IN STUDY AREA 2 Highway/Location George Parks Highway Wasilla to Willow Willow to Talkeetna Talkeetna to Cantwell Cantwell to Nenana Denali Highway Paxson to Cantwell Richardson Highway Valdez to Glennallen Glennallen to Isabel Pass Glenn Highway Anchorage to Glennallen No. of Lodges/Motels 6 2 5 6 4 4 15 No. of Campgrounds 5 2 3 1 2 Source: Alaska Northwest Publishing Company. 1980. The Milepost. Anchorage, Alaska. pp. 498. 63 TABLE 17 OWNER-RENTER DISTRIBUTION BY HOUSING TYPE Mode of Single Multi-Mobile OwnershiE Total Family Fami 1,~ Home Rental 13.6 9.7 63.2 15.5 Rent free, not owning 2.9 2.5 2.6 4.8 Total Own 83.4 87.8 34.2 79.7 Purchasing (49.5) (54.2) (23.7) (32.1) Own Outright {33.9} (33.6) (10.5) (47.6) Source: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions Development Options and Projections; p. 79. 64 approximately $379, similar to multi-family. In summary, 45.7 percent of those making payments for a single family home pay in excess of $451. This compares to 78 percent of multi-family occupiers who pay less than $450; and 100 percent of mobile home occupiers who pay less than $450 for their units. For those renting, only a minority have some or all their utilities covered by their rental payment. Water (42.4 percent) and sewer (43.5 percent) are most often covered, while electricity {19.6 percent}, fuel oil (9.8 percent}, and solid waste {22.8 percent) are seldom covered. For those purchasing their home, about half include their real estate taxes (57.0 percent) and insurance (48.1 percent) in their mortgage payment. 3.3.1.3 -Facility Characteristics of Housing The average size of a housing unit in the Borough was 5.3 census rooms {excludes bathrooms, halls, unfinished rooms, open porches, etc.). These units include an average of 2.6 bedrooms and 1.4 bathrooms. There are significant differences by area in the Borough. On the average, the more rural areas, including Independence Mine, Sutton, ·North of Willow, Willow, Big Lake, and Knik, have smaller units. Generally, household facilities usually assumed to be present in a modern dwelling are found in Mat-Su homes. For example, 92.0 percent have a kitchen sink with piped water, 98.4 percent have a range or stove; 96.0 percent, a refrigerator; 90.7 percent, hot and cold piped water; 90.4 percent, flush toilet; and 90.4 percent have a bath tub or shower. A unit with one deficiency is most likely to lack several facilities. Many of these units are log cabins with year:--round occu- pancy. Deficiencies are most likely to occur in rural areas noted above, with Caswell, Montana, and Talkeetna having the greatest inci- dence. 65 Turning to heating systems, a variety of fuels and combinations are used. More households use wood (48.9 percent) than any other fuel, though only 15.2 percent rely on wood exclusively. Second is electri- city with 21.9 percent using only electric, and 21.4 percent using electric and wood. Fuel oil only is used by 22.4 percent and with wood by 12.4 percent. A small proportion of households also use propane or coal. Of units with heating systems, 42.9 percent have built-in electric; 15.5 percent have central air; 15.1 percent have circulating water; and 37.4 percent have fireplaces or stoves. Fuel oil is used most often in Palmer and Butte, while electricity is found generally throughout all areas, though its use is greatest in the Wasilla-Houston areas. Wood is also used everywhere, though least in Palmer and most often in rural areas. Whatever the heating system used, most people {90.1 percent) feel their home is warm enough in winter. 3.3.1.4 -Selected Housing Problems Seven housing conditions were mentioned to each respondent of the housing survey conducted by Policy Analysts, Limited and are shown in Table 18. The existence of a particular condition ranged Jrom a 23 percent need for storm windows to a 7 percent estimate of rundown con- dition. For each group which perceived a condition, only a minority felt affected their wanting to move. Many of the physical problems are somewhat more prevalent in the rural areas. The exception is remoteness, which is perceived less often in the more physically remote areas. This suggests that this conditon is more a state-of-mind than what can be measured in miles. From an overall perspective, respondents tend to rate their present housing in positive term~. Excellent is the response of 42.4 percent; 42.8 percent answer good; 13.2 percent say fair; and only 1.6 percent perceive their housing as poor. 66 - TABLE 18 THE PRESENCE OF SELECTED HOUSING CONDITIONS Effect on Problem c.t Yes Movin2 Overcrowded Housing 14.7 High Too Expensive 16.8 High Insufficient Hot Water 14.2 Low Poor Insulation 19.6 Low Rundown Condition 6.8 Moderate Need for Storm Windows 22.7 Very Low Too far from your job, shopping or friends 17.9 Moderate Source: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions Development Options and Projections; p. 82. /d 67 3.3.1.5 -Housing Preferences Ninety-six percent of the people in the Mat-Su Borough would prefer to buy a single family house. Preferences for all other structural styles and rental situations are well below the existing proportion of alter- native in housing units. The primary difference between actual and preferred housing is the maximum amount one is able to pay each month for housing. While the average is $41g, similar to the present average payment, this is well below the actual cost of financing a new home. The increasing cost of building, inflation in the present stock, and the high cost of financing has pushed the monthly payments of newly- financed structures from $600 mininum to well over $1,000 a month. Presently, only 9.3 percent are paying over $600, and 15.8 percent say they could afford a payment above $600. While the single family house is the first choice of most respondents, two alternative arrangements are presented for comment. The con- dominium has become an important ownership alternative to the single family house, while a planned mobile home park provides an inexpensive ownership model with amenities and services. Both are designed to reduce the cost to the consumer as the expense of housing continues to rise. The majority opposes both options. For the condominium, 91.3 percent are negative or opposed to it for themselves, only 8.7 percent show some interest in it as an option they would consider. Reasons given include the crowded lifestyle of condos (21.4 percent), privacy problems (13.8 percent), and insufficient land (6.7 percent). Almost the same proportions are also opposed to mobile homes (91.0 percent}. Even those who would consider a mobile home oppose the park concept and want the unit on a large lot, the current configuration of most units in the Valley. Again, respondents focus on the crowded conditions (18.0 percent); are generally negative (14.2 percent); and see the units as dangerous (7.0 percent), lacking privacy {7.1 percent), and 68 poorly constructed (5. 5 percent). Based on the responses, it would appear that resistance to housing options other than the single family unit is substantial. 3.3.1.6 -Housing Problems/Needs -The elderly, many on fixed incomes and with increased health problems, produce some unique housing problems. These range from the high cost of housing to difficulties with maintenance. It is estimated that 5.6 percent (1,040 individuals) of the Borough population is 60 years of age or more. -The handicapped have both problems in obtaining affordable housing and special needs in the design of housing to facilitate use by them. Handicapped persons are estimated to be present in 288 households (5.2 percent). This includes 349 mentally or physically handicapped individuals: 167 adults and 182 children (1.9 percent of the population). -The poor can be defined in a variety of ways. But whichever method is used, the difficulties the poor have in finding adequate, sound housing is not masked. One way to estimate those economically disadvantaged is the use of the HUD income guidelines for program eligibility. These ceilings vary by the size of the household from $14,000 for a single person household to $25,000 for a household with eight or more members. Using this approach 27.5 percent of Borough households are technically eligible for federal assistance. This is similar to Anchorage {25.5 percent). Poverty also hits certain groups harder than others. For example, 40.7 percent of the Mat-Su senior citizen households are eli- gi b 1 e. -Minorities are many times targeted for housing assistance because their economic base is often more limited than that of whites. While the 69 minority population is quite small in the Mat-Su Borough (3.5 percent), problems still exist. While it is difficult to make specific estima- tes, it appears that the largest minority -Alaska Natives -are most likely to have housing problems, both economicially and in terms of their present housing condition. 3.3.2 -Copper River Region The surge in activity and population in the Copper River Region attri- buted to the pipeline construction put demands on housing that in most cases were unable to be met. The result was an increase in the number of temporary trailer parks located primarily along the Richardson Highway. These parks ordinarily did not provide any services, and since the completion of the pipeline many of the sites have been aban- doned. The more permanent structures that exist in the region are: 1) established trailer courts which include utilities; 2) permanent cabins and small homes, many of which are substantial with none or only some utilities; and 3) new houses equipped with all utilities (Institute of Social and Economic Research. 1976; pp. 2-3). There are no current enumerations of the number of houses in each group, or of their quality, vacancy rate, ownership, or cost. In 1975, there was a housing study commissioned for the Ahtna Region by the Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Community Planning. The results of the survey are outdated at this time in light of the developments associated with the pipeline, however, the salient points of the survey will serve as a benchmark. Of the native house- hal ds surveyed, the average age of the residents in the area was 23 ,years. Electricity was available in 77 percent of the homes; piped water in 38 percent; and flush toilets in 38 percent (Copper River Native Association. 1975; p. 3-4). 70 Since that time, HUD has funded twenty (20) elderly low rent rental units, twelve {12} in the Native Village of Copper Center and eight (8) in Gulkana Village. This helped to relieve some of the need in the Copper River Basin, but there is still a strong demand. Presently the Copper River Housing Authority is building twelve (12) HUD Mutual· Help houses in Cantwell (conversation with Thea Smelcher, Copper River Housing Authority). More recent pertinent information regarding housing in the Copper River Region is not available at this time unless primary data collection is undertaken. 3.4 -Government Structure and Taxation 3.4.1 -Government Structure State statutes under Title 29 provide for the establishment of boroughs within the State of Alaska. The steps to becoming an organized borough include first the recognition and desire of the constituents of an area to organize; the submittal of a petition to the Department of Community and Regional Affairs signed by 15% of the voters; review of the peti- tion by the Department of Community and Regional Affairs; a public hearing; and, finally an election. Even if an election meets with suc- cess, the area must conform to certain requirements relating to popula- tion, economy, transportation, and communication. Once the above steps are met and the area is deemed capable of functioning as an organized government, it then becomes an organized borough. As such, it automa- tically assumes certain mandatory obligations and has the power to assume others. The powers vested unto a borough and th~ ability to assume other responsibilities varies depending on whether a borough is classified as a First, Second, or Third class borough. The steps to becoming an incorporated city are similar to those of a borough except that the primary criterion is population. Formation of home rule muni- 71 cipalities is also provided for in the Municipal Code. A home rule municipality is a municipal corporation and political subdivision and is a borough of the first class, or a city of the first class, which has adopted a home rule charter. It has all legislative powers not prohibited by law or charter. The available powers and composition of governing bodies are explained below in greater detail for Anchorage, the Mat-Su Borough, Valdez, and individual communities. 3.4.1.1 -Municipality of Anchorage Statehood in 1959 brought a home rule charter to the City of Anchorage and in 1963 the Greater Anchorage Area Borough (GAAB) was established. The Mandatory Borough Act gave the GAAB areawide powers for planning and zoning, education, property assessment, and tax collection. Additional powers including health, sewers, animal control, and tran- sit, and service area provisions for fire, p~lice libraries, roads and drainage were later added by voter approval. The term areawide refers to responsibilities throughout the total area of the Borough including those areas within incorporated cities. The City of Anchorage offered a broad range of services including police, fire, public works, parks and recreation, library, water, and power, and operated a deep water port, a museum, a small airport, and a large telephone utility. Utility services were even extended beyond city limits. However, two years after the GAAB was formed, the concept of government unification was developed. After much conflict and several referendums, a unified Anchorage government was formed. At present Anchorage is considered a unified home rule municipality and operates as a mayor form of government with an eleven-member Municipal Assembly elected from multimember districts. A city man.ager handles the daily operational aspects of government and the Office of Management acts as the focal point for budget decision-making. (Ender, Richard L. et al. January 1980). 72 3.4.1.2 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough The Matanuska-Susitna Borough was incorporated as a second class borough on January 1, 1964. As such, at the time of incorporation, the borough automatically assumed three areawide powers; taxation, educa- tion, and planning, platting and zoning. In 1966 the citizens of the borough voted to add parks and recreation as an areawide power. In addition to the areawide powers listed above, each borough in Alaska has certain "non-areawide" powers that it can exercise outside of incorporated cities. As a second class borough, the non-areawide powers are limited to those powers which are granted by law to first class cities and specifically approved by citizens residing outside ·of incorporated cities and with the formation of service areas. The borough has non-area wide powers of solid waste disposal and libraries. Areawide powers: -Administration -Taxation Planning and zoning -Education -Parks and Recreation Non-areawide powers: Solid waste disposal Libraries Service areas were created and are exercised primarily in the delivery of road maintenance and fire protection. There are presently six fire service areas and six road service areas as follows (Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. April 1978.): 73 Fire Service Areas Houston Wasi 11 a Lakes Palmer Butte Sutton Other Service Areas Talkeetna Water and Flood Control 3.4.1.2.1 -Organization Road Service Areas Garden Terrace Estates Goddard Subdivision Woodside Estates Wilderness Valley Valley Ranch Caswell Lakes The Borough Government is organized much the same as the Municipality, with a part-time Mayor-~anager-Assembly form of government. with the executive function performed by the Mayor, the legislative function by the Assembly, and the administrative direction by a full-time Manager. The five members of the Assembly are elected by district with the Mayor elected at large. The Borough administration, working under the direction of the Manager, is currently organized under the following departments: -F1nance -Public Works -Assessment -Planning The areawide school system is operated under the direction of the school district administration, which is d1stinct from the general government admi ni strati on, but subservi ant to the Borough Assembly. 74 3.4.1.2.2 -Borough Administration Facilities The City of Palmer serves as the seat of the Borough Government. Borough General Government administrative offices, and school district administrative offices are housed in separate structures in the heart of the City. The Borough also operates a maintenance faci 1 ity on the edge of town, which serves as the motor pool and major repair facility. 3.4.1.2.3-Incorporated Places There are three incorporated communities within the Matanuska- Susitna Borough: -Palmer-a first-class, home-rule city -Wasilla - a second-class city -Houston - a second-class city -Pal mer The City of Palmer is administratively under a Mayor-Manager-City Counci 1 form of government, with a part- time Mayor and a full-time City Manager. Administrative faci- lities are housed in the City Hall, which shares a location with the 1 i brary and fire station. The City also operates a maintenance facility. -Wasilla The City of Wasilla has a part-time Mayor and a City Counci 1 with a full-time City Clerk. City offices are located in the new Wasilla library building, which provides meeting space in the lower level. 75 -Houston The City of Houston has a part-time Mayor-City Council form of government, with a part-time City Clerk. The City Hall and fire department share a facility in the core area of the com- munity. A meeting room is also included in the structure. 3.4.1.2.4 -Unincorporated Area Within the 23,000 square miles of the borough, several unin- corporated communities are recognized in addition to the three incorporated places mentioned above. Most of these com- munities are located within areas serviced by roads; however, the bush community of Skwentna is located on the Skwentna River approximately 40 miles from the nearest road. Much of the Borough is mountainous and very sparsely inhabited, and . thus does not lend itself to the development of community organizations. 3.4.1.3 -Valdez and Copper River Region With the exception of Cordova, the City of Valdez is the only organized municipality in the Copper River region and is classified as a first-class, home-rule city. The remainder of the communities along the Richardson highway are unincor- porated and are provided services by the State. State pro- vided services include police, justice, highways, and public health. The only organizations that resemble political enti- ties are the school board and Ahtna Incorporated, the native corporation formulated under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA). 76 3.4.2 -Taxation The power to tax is not inherent in the organization of the boroughs and cities, but rather a power granted by the Alaska State Constitution and Statutes. Contained in the Alaska State Constitution is the provi- sion that "no tax shall be levied ••• except for a public purpose" (Article IX, Section 6). The following is a summary of the guidelines governing taxation in the State of Alaska extracted from: Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Local Government Assistance, January 1980. Alaska Taxable 1979: Municipal Property Assessments and Equalized Full Value Determination. If greater detail is desired it is suggested that the reader refer directly to the source. 3.4.2.1 -Summary of Property Tax Provisions of the Alaska Statutes 3.4.2.1.1 -Power of Levy (AS 29.53.010, AS 29.53.400, AS 29.53.410, AS 29.43.020) Home rule and general law municipalities may levy tax on all real and personal property located throughout the municipality to sup- port services provided throughout the muncipality, with the excep- tion of second class cities (which have a tax levy limitation of one-half of one percent or five mills). The maximum rate of taxa- _tion is three percent (thirty mills) of the full and true value of the taxable property. (AS 29.53.405) Cities may levy a higher or lower rate of tax on the value of real and personal property located within "differential tax zones" that receive a higher or lower level of service than other areas of the city. (AS 29.53) If a city is 1 ocated within an organized borough, the borough 77 remains responsible for assessment of property and collection of taxes levied by the city. Cities located in an unorganized borough are responsible for assessment and collection of local property taxes. (AS 29.53 415-460) Subject to voter appraisal, Alaska municipalities are authorized to levy and collect a sales tax equal to three percent of the volume of sales, rents, and other services provided within the municipality. Cities exercising this power within an organized borough also exercising the power must tax and/or exempt the same sales, units and other services that the borough does. There is no such limitation on a city in an unorganized borough or a city located within a borough which does not exercise the sales tax power. Second Class City: {AS 29.53.410) A majority vote is required before a second class city may exer- cise the power of taxation. Borough: (AS 29.53.010) Boroughs may levy a tax on the value of real and personal property located outside cities (non-area wide) to support services pro- vided to that area only. (AS 29.63.090) Boroughs may levy a tax on the value of real and personal property located within special service areas to support a special service or a higher or lower level of service than that provided on an area wide or non-area wide basis. 78 3.4.2.1.2 -Tax Limitations Municipalities: (AS 29.53.050) There is a general tax levy of 30 mills (three percent) for muni-· cipalities. This includes the combined mill levy of a municipa- lity and a borough. However, in 1 i ght of the Supreme Court decision numbered 1750, October 20, 1978, municipalities may exceed the 30 mills (three percent) ceiling if necessary to pay bonded debt. This interpretation does not require that bonds be in default or in a situation threatening default. The combined mill levy of a city and a borough may not generate an amount of revenue greater than an amount equal to $1,000 multiplied by the number of residents of the municipalities; nor may a city and/or borough levy a tax upon that proportion of the municipal tax base that exceeds an amount equal to 225 percent of the average state assessed per capita valuation multipled by the number of residents of the muni ci pa 1 ity. (The state average does not include oil and gas property). A general ceiling of three percent applies to municipal sales taxes. Home rule municipalities may, however, exceed this limita- tion. However, in a second opinion by the Supreme Court, number 1735, September 29, 1978, it became possible for a municipality to levy a general sales tax on selected sales activities as opposed to having to tax all sales activities. Second Class Cities: (AS 29.53.410) Second class cities have a tax ceiling of 5 mills (one-half of one percent), however, they may exceed this limit if it is necessary to do so to avoid default on bonded or other indebtedness. 79 3.4.2.1.3 -Exemptions The Alaska Statutes provide for a number of tax exemptions, some of which are listed below: Title 29: Required Exemptions Municipal, State, or Federally-owned property, except that private leaseholds, contracts, or other interest in the property is taxable. Property used exclusively for non-profit, religious, chari- table, cemetery, hospital, or educational purposes. Household furniture of the head of a family or a householder not exceeding $500 in value. Some non-business activities of veterans. Money or deposit. Real property owned by residents over 64 years of age in which they permanently reside. Title 43: Required Exemptions Oil and gas-related properties. Title 10: Corporations and Associations: Required Exemptions Title 29: Optional Exemptions and Exclusions Home Rule or First or Second Class Boroughs: A home rule or first or second class borough may adopt an ordinance to bring its pro- perty tax structure into entire or partial accordance with the 80 property tax structure of a city within it, including--though not limited to--the exclusion of personal property from taxation, the establishment of exemptions, and the extension of the redemption period. Home Rule or First Class Cities: A home rule or first class city has the same power of exempting or excluding property from borough taxes that already exist as city exemptions. However, the city exercising this power must return to the borough a sum equal to the revenues the borough would have received had the exclusions or exemptions not been adopted. The borough assembly will determine that amount annually. Home Rule or General Law Cities: A home rule or general law city within an organized borough may adopt an ordinance to assimilate its property tax structure entirely or partially to that of the borough, including partial or total exemptions. Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act The constitution provides that 11 real property interests conveyed pursuant to this Act, to a native individual, native group, or village, or regional corporation which are not developed or leased to third parties, shall be exempt from State and local real pro- perty taxes for a period of twenty years after the date of enact- ment of this Act.11 (Public Law 92-203, 92nd Congress, First Session, Section 21). Table 19 lists the property and sales taxes for Anchorage, Fairbanks, Valdez, and municipalities and service areas in the organized Borough of Matanuska-Susitna. Communities along the Richardson Highway that are unincorporated and unorganized do not levy taxes. Of the co11111unities in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough,· Palmer is the only municipality that levies a sales tax. The sales tax revenues for the FY 1978-1979 were $404,516 (Overall 81 TABLE 19 MUNICIPAL PROPERTY AND SALES TAX RATES CLASS I TAX CODE PROPERTY TAX SAlES TAX BOROUGH AND SERVICE AREA AREA 1977 1978 1979 1977 1978 1979 MUNICIPAliTY OF ANCHORAGE (Unified Home Rule) Anchora~e (SA) 01 .10 Adm1nistration 3.04 3.00 2.65 Schools 6.98 5.87 4.64 Sewer .56 .53 .46 l fbrary .52 Roads 1.65 l. 76 Police 2.51 2.60 2.00 Fire 1.65 1.79 1.59 Parks and Recreation .79 .68 .50 Solid Waste .13 .23 .19 Area Bonds 1.00 TOTAl TT.Ttf ~ TT.711 ():) N FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH (Second Class) Fairbanks (HR) 01 9.00 8.50 8.50 3.0 3.0 3.0 Administration 1.30 1.70 1.44 2.0 2.0 2.0 Schools 3.80 5.50 5.74 TOTAl l4.Tir T5":7IT T5":0l!" --s-:ll" --s-:ll" --s-:rr VAlDEZ (HR) ZONE I ----xDministration 7.249 4.1511 3.954 Schools 1. 711 1.9759 2.020 TOTAl ~ o.T27lT Dn ZONE 11 ~inistratfon 5.457 3.3445 Schools 1.711 1.9759 TOTAl T.T6lr ~ ZONE II I Administration 4.561 Schools 1.711 TOTAl t:m e4/tu.a TABLE 19 (page 2) TAX COO£ I'ROP£ RTY TAX SALES TAX BOROUGH AND SERVICE AREA ClASS 1 AREA 1977 19711 11!79 1977 1978 1979 -·---------~--~--------__ , -------------- MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH I Second Class) Wasilla fire (SA) 01 .90 .so .60 Administration .54 1.15 1.35 Schools 6.96 6.05 5.85 land Fill and library .10 .20 TOTAl 1T.OO" T.IID ll.M Palmer (HR) 05 5.00 5.00 2.0 2.0 2.0 ~ministration 3.54 1.15 1.35 Schools 6.96 6.05 5.85 land Fill .10 TOTAl T53U" t:JU" rr:N Other Area 06 AdnnnlStration 3.54 1.15 1.35 Schools 6.96 6.05 5.85 Land Fill and library .20 .lOa .20 TOTAl m:m I:JIT IAlY 00 Talkeetna Flood Control (SA) 07 2.00 1.40 w Adm1n1Strat1on 3.54 1.15 1.35 Schools 6.96 6.05 5.85 land Fill and library .20 .10 .20 Fire .60 TOTAl rr:m t:JU" ~ Houston (2nd) 12 Administration 3.54 1.15 1.35 Schools 6.96 6.05 5.85 land Fill .10 TOTAl l1.5'!f ""7:30" t:£0" Wasilla (2nd) 13 .90 .so 1.00 Administration 3.54 1.15 1.35 Schools 6.96 6.05 5.85 land Ffll .10 Fire .60 TOTAl lT:lJIT t:JU" --s:mr Talkeetna Fire Service (SA) 24 Administrat1on 1.35 Schools 5.85 land Fill and library .20 Fire .60 TOTAl lr.UU e4/tax.al TABLE 19 {page 3) TAX COOE PROPUHY TAX BOROUGH ANO SERVICE AREA ClASS 1 AREA 1977 1978 1979 --·--------~---- Nenana ----xGministration 10.00 10.00 10.00 Schools Water and Sewer TOTAL m:mr m:mr nr:mr 1 SA: Service Area; HR: Home Rule; 2nd: Second Class a land fi 11 only SALES TAX 1977 1978 1979 2.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 --r.u--r.rr --r.rr Source: Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of local Government Assistance. January 1980. Alaska Taxable 1979. Juneau, AK; pp. 54 -70. e4/tax.a2 Economic Development Program, Inc. July, 1980. Volume III: Appendices). The real property tax of 6 mills in Valdez is one of the lowest in the state. Property taxes are reported in-terms of mills and sales tax rates are reported as a percent. Table 20 displays the real property valuation. The estimated population, and general obligation bonded debt for Anchorage, Fairbanks, Valdez, Palmer City and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. 3.5 -Infrastructure The ability of a community to respond adequately to increased demands is in most part, a function of the ability of the institutions and services to continue providing services to a larger constituency. The important con- siderations are therefore, current usage and capacity. This section describes the existing public services at the regional and local level, as appropriate to the degree of probable impact of the Susitna Project. The services addressed include: utilities, transportation, communication, power availability, police, fire, health services, libraries, and educa- tion. Information for this section was obtained from: Matanuska -Susitna Planning documents; the Overall Economic Development Program, Inc., July 1980; Development Options and Projections; and personal contacts. 3.5.1 -Utilities 3.5.1.1 -Matanuska-Susitna 3.5.1.1.1 -Solid Waste The Borough has non-areawide solid waste management &uthority and currently operates a system of nine landfills. There is no collection system operated by the Borough, therefore it is the responsibility of individuals to transport their solid waste to the various landfill locations. Palmer operates a collection and 85 co 0'1 TABLE 20 VALUATION, POPULATION, AND G.O. BONDED DEBT FULL VALUE CIVILIAN G.O. DETERMINATION POPULATION BONDED DEBT BOROUGH 01/01/79 07/01/79 07/01/79 ANCHORAGE, MUNICIPALITY TOTAL 6,540,804,000 185,280 260,836,000 FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR 2,303,862,300 60,227 36,643,000 Fairbanks City 727,804' 500 30,462 16,055,000 North Pole 64,264,000 823 350,000 TOTAL 2,303,862,300 60,227 53,048,000 MATANUSKA-SUSITNA 928,420,000 23,177 52,455,000 Palmer City 57,824,900 2,056 2,315,278 TOTAL 928,420,000 23,177 54,770,278 Valdez 1,652,877,200 4,066 59,595,000 Source: Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Local Government Assistance. January 1980. Alaska Taxable 1979. Juneau, AK; p. 50. e4/tax.b PER CAPITA DEBT 1,408 608 527 425 881 2,263 1,126 2,363 14,657 PER CAPITA DEBT % TO VALUATION VALUATION 35,302 3.99 38,253 1.59 23,892 2.21 75,85 .54 38,253 2.30 40,058 5.65 28,125 4.00 40,058 5.90 406,512 3.61 disposal system for city residents. They have a contract with the Borough and State for use of the landfills. 3.5.1.1.2 -Sanitary Sewage Palmer is the only municipality in the Borough that has a com- munity sewage and water facility. Presently there are plans for the construction of a sewage treatment facility and water supply system for Wasilla with construction to begin in the summer of 1981. All other residents in the Borough living outside of these city limits provide for themselves with wells and septic tanks. There are 11 community sewage systems 1 ocated in the Borough. These systems are not owned by the Alaska Department classified according to the and operated, but are, however, rated of Enviornmental Conservation and number of people served. There are: 44 Class 11 A11 public sewage systems (rocated primarily in sub- divisions and trailer parks); 77 Class 11 811 public sewage systems (mostly located at schools and businesses); and 95 Class 11 C11 public sewage systems (mainly serving duplex and triplex structures). 3.5.1.1.3 -Water Outside of the Pal mer area water is provided for either on an individual basis, i.e. a well, or by a community water system. There are 22 community water systems within the Borough; 44 Class 11 A11 public water systems (mainly serving subdivisions and trailer parks); 77 Class 11 B11 public water systems (primarily serving schools and businesses); and 95 Class ncu public w:ater systems (serving mainly duplexes and triplexes). The listing of community water and sewage systems can be found in: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc., July 1980. Volume III: Appendices. 87 co co Nenana Cantwell Talkeetna vJillow Pa 1 mer l·Jas ill a Paxson Glennallen Copper Center Gakona Healy Gulkana Valdez Anchorage Fairbanks Schools ~ >, 1'0 s.... +-' 1'0 c -o s.... Q) c Q) s.... E 0 .c Q) Q) u O'l +-' ,...... Q) ...... co L.LI (/) :I: 3 * * * * * * * * * * • * * * * * * * * * -* * * * * * * * * * * * ,...... co Vl +-' 0 Vl c.. 0 Vl 0.. ...... Cl s.... Q) Q) ~ Q) n. u +-' 0 ...... +-' Vl 0 r-Vl co s.... 0 >, 3: 1-0.. (/) s.... -o Q) r-+-' <ll ...... +-' co s.... ~ r-co u ::I 0 +-' 0 0 (/) (/) (/) _..J L) ·/r * * * * * * * * * * ,., * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * '~ * * * * * * TABLE 21 COMMUNITY FACILITIES SUMMARY >, Government +-' c: ...... 0 . ,...... ...... co u ...... +-' en ...... co u co c: Q) -o Q) u... co ,...... +-' ...... u Q) ,...... u... co s.... "'0 .,... ::::::: ::I Q) +-' 0 ,...... > ......... -o 0::: s.... s.... ..c: ...... c.. .,... !.... c: Q) Q) co +-' c.. Vl ::I Q) 0 Vl +-' Q) +-' L) r-Vl c: co Q) E (/) ...... Vl Vl co E c: 1'0 0 co u Q) +-' Vl 1'0 s.... 0 ,...... Q) E Q) :I: s.... >, ..... +-' Q) ro Q) 1'0 ,...... 0 :I: ,...... L) s.... :I: -o 1-0.. +-' 4-Vl c u ,...... ,...... L) c.. 1'0 Q) ,...... ro .,... >, . ,... 4->, 0 ...... :;, L) s.... "'0 :::c .J:: 1-,...... 1'0 0 u s.... s.... c 0 (/) ..c: 1:: 0::: "'0 0 Q) +-' 1'0 s.... Vl s.... ...... +-' co :::1 s.... 0.. ::J +-' c u . ..... Q) ,...... 0'1 +-' Q) "'0 ,...... ,...... Vl !.... ~ +-' ..::.t. Q) Q) E Q) Vl 0 c 4- s.... 1'0 t: c c: co ..... ..c s.... ..c Vl s.... 3: ,...... E E !.... u ...... ...... ...... <ll 0 Q) <ll 0 co ::I ...... . ..... 0 0 1'0 0 Q) 0 0 . ..... <ll c: t: u... ~ _..J "'"" c.!J ~ 0:: 0.. c:c _..J L) 0.. 0.. 0.. 1-u :::c u... (/) ::J :;:) ~- * * * * * * * * * * ·It * * * * * * * * * -k * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * "!~ * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * -k * * * f( * * * * * * * * f: * * * * * * * * * ·k * * * * * * * * * * * * * f: c * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * -.~ * * * * * * * * * •k * * -J: * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * -~-* * * * * 3.5.1.2 -Copper River Region 3.5.1.2.1 -Solid Waste As the communities in the Copper River Region are unincorporated and in an unorganized borough, it is the State•s responsibility to maintain landfills. There are currently several landfills main- tained. It is ordinarily the practice of the residents to haul their garbage to these locations. There is one commercial firm, the Copper Valley Construction Co., that provides a garbage collection service for a set monthly fee. 3.5.1.2.2 -Sanitary Sewage Sewage in the Copper River Region is dealt with in several man- ners. Many residents have their own septic tanks which are emptied by the Copper Valley Construction Co. when necessary. There are also several lagoons or 11 holding tanks,. in the region that clusters of houses can utilize. These, too, are emptied by the Copper Val ley Construction Co. There are only two sewage treatment plants in the area, both maintained by the Central Alaskan Mission at the Faith Hospital and Alaska Bible College. There are approximately 20 to 25 houses tied directly into the mission treatment facility. The Copper Valley Construction Co. utilizes the treatment plants for the disposal of the sewage that it collects. 3.5.1.2.3 -Water Water in the Copper River Region is supplied by on~?, or a com- bination of the following: private wells, State wells (of which there are three), or Bishop & Sons, Inc., a commercial water distributor. Bishop & Sons, Inc. has a 3,000 gallon tank truck used for delivering water to private residences. It is believed 89 that approximately 50 percent of the residences receive their water from Bishops & Sons, Inc. (conversation with Sheldon Spector, Magistrate, Glennallen, AK). 3.5.2 -Transportation This section first describes the marine, highway, rail, and air transport networks for the three major cities in Study Area 3; Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Valdez, and then for particular communities in the vicinity of the proposed hydroelectric facility. Alaska •s transportation needs are unique compared to the contiguous states. Given a small population scattered over a large geographic area, in most cases impassable by road, there is a great reliance on marine and air transportation. Of the different regions in Alaska, the southcentral and interior regions have the most comprehensive transpor- tation networks. Two reasons for this comprehensive and extensive transportation system are: 1) diverse economies relative to other areas in the state; and 2) greater concentrations of population. These factors make such a transportation system both feasible and affordable. The main source of information contained in this section on transpor- tation was: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. June 1980. Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions: Alaska•s Unique Transportation System. pp. 28. 3.5.2.1 -Marine The dominant mode of transport in Alaska is marine. Practically every significant population center in Alaska is connected by marine transport, Fairbanks is an anomaly in this sense. Figures 5 and 6 show the major inbound and outbound commodity flows for the State of Alaska in 1977. 90 Far East 880,000 FIGURE 5 Major Inbound Commodity Flows 1977 1 Ketchikan 13 Homer 2 Wrangell 14 Kenai 3 Petersburg 15 Anchorage 4 Sitka 16 Kodiak 5 Juneau 17 Unalaska 6 Haimes 18 Dillingham 7 Skagway 19 Bethel 8 Yakutat 20 Nome 9 Cordova 21 Kotzebue 10 Valdez 22 Barrow 11 Whittier 23 Prudhoe Bay 12 Seward 24 Healy 25 Fairbanks c:J Annual Tons in Thousands Vancouver 490.000 Seattle 1,200,000 We~t Coast 890,000 Source: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. June 1980. Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions. Alaska's Unique Transportation System. p.6. FrfiURE 6 ' Major Outbound CommOdity Flows 1977 I Ketchikan ~ Wrangell 3 Sitka 4 Haines 5 Skagway 6 Valde~ 1 WhiWet 9 Homer 10 kenai , Anchatage 12 Kodiak 13 Prudhoe Bay L::J Annual Tons in Millions Natthwesr 4,700,01Jo Ca/ifotnia 13,30o,OOIJ Source: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. June 1980. Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions. Alaska's Unique Transportation System. P. 7. 3.5.2.1.1 -Valdez Valdez is the state•s largest port in terms of annual tonnage. (See Table 22). This is due almost exclusively (99 percent) to its being the terminus of the trans-Alaska pipeline and therefore the principal port for the shipment of crude petroleum. Currently estimated annual throughput is 60 million tons. The City of Valdez is nearing completion of a 750 foot container terminal, which will introduce container cargo shipping to Valdez. Presently there is no container cargo. The Port of Valdez has also just recently inaugurated monthly barge service between Valdez and Seattle with Pacific Western Lines. Table 23 lists the current carrier marine services now operating out of Anchorage and Valdez. Transshipment from the Valdez port is by truck. 3.5.2.1.2 -Anchorage The Port of Anchorage handles approximately 90 percent of the con- tainer cargo for the Southcentral region and is second to Valdez in annual tonnage. It is Alaska •s largest general cargo port. Current freight throughput is estimated at approximately 2 million tons. Of this, about 90 percent of the general cargo is inbound, with close to half being petroleum products. The remaining freight consists of bulk construction material delivered by barge from Seatt 1 e. Tab 1 e 24 shows the trend in freight movement by commodity from 1965 to 1979. It is estimated that the Port of Anchorage is operating at approximately 50 percent of container handling capacity (PRC Harris, Inc. and Alaska Consultants, Inc. September 8, 1980). Approximately 60 percent of the cargo moving into the Port of Anchorage is destined for the City of Anchorage with the remainder being dispersed throughout other areas in the region. Trans- shipment is by both truck and rail out of Anchorage. 93 TABLE 22 Total Traffic for Selected Alaska Ports: Historical Trends (in thousands of short tons) Ports 1977 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 Ketchikan 2,168 1,559 2,162 2,186 1,868 1,881 1,542 Metlakatla 224 174 318 291 117 70 15 Wrangell 656 827 1,023 1,169 1,181 755 502 Petersburg 67 56 205 157 294 134 114 Sitka 553 998 970 1,243 916 1,009 1,072 Juneau 152 i67 154 201 119 126 133 Skagway 1,026 833 1,514 1,388 1,273 575 297 Valdez 10,667 507 357 254 478 182 188 Cordova 36 66 35 42 34 44 57 Seward 115 237 72 62 29 117 49 Homer 126 31 12 170 190 17 14 Whittier 414 457 662 646 349 312 N/A Anchorage 2,220 2,932 2,340 2,058 1,937 1,311 1,009 Kodiak 501 388 217 193 124 109 213 Unalaska 325 350 157 190 252 121 171 Bethel 96 110 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Nome 64 30 32 43 21 41 47 Bristol Bay 71 59 12 34 169 26 61 Source: U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers, Waterborne Commerce of the United States, Part 4. From:Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. June 1980. Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions: Alaska's Unique Transportation System; p. 4. 94 TABLE 23 PRINCIPAL SCHEDULED COMMON CARRIER MARINE SERVICES TO SELECTED ALASKA PORTS Between Anchorage Valdez Anchorage Seattle Abbreviations Carrier A.M.H.S S.L.S T.O.T.E. P.W.L. C.B.L. Five times weekly (mid-May--mid- September} Twice weekly container ship Twice weekly Roll-on-Roll-off ship Barge every two weeks (mid-March --mid-November} Barge monthly {April-November} A.M.H.S. Alaska Marine Highway System S.L.S. Sea-Land Service T.O.T.E. Totem Ocean Trai'ler Express P.W.L. Pacific Western Lines C.B.L. Coastal Barge Line Source: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. June 1980. Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions: Alaska•s Unique Transportation System; p. 3. 95 TABLE 24 PORT OF ANCHORAGE FREIGHT MOVEMENTS IN TONS8 BY COMMODITY: 1965, 1970, 1972-1979 Freight N.O.s.b ........... . Cement, Drilling Mud, etc. . ... . Iron & Steel Articles .....•..• Lumber ..............•.•• Oil Field & Equipment Supplies ....•.......... Petroleum Bulk ..........•.. Petroleum N.O.S ........... . Vans, Flats, Containers .. , .... . Vehicles ................. . Plastic Material, Insulation .... . Total. ............ . Freight N.O.S ............. . Cement, Drilling Mud, etc. , ... . Iron & Steel Articles ........ . Lumber .................• Oil Field & Equipment Supplies ..........••... Petroleum Bulk ............ . Petroleum N.O.S ....... , .•.. Vans, Flats, Containers ....... . Vehicles ................•. Plastic Material, Insulation .... . Total. ............ . 1965 17,046 569 10,816 9,532 228 675,052 865 192,777 15,323 922,208 1975 7,564 44,384 8,823 8,315 1,290,065 2,084 838,676 21,518 391 2,851,820 1970 1,258 24,510 3,459 197 2,279 1,320,960 2,169 478,234 4,543 1,837,609 1976 6,147 40,360 7,421 266 1,695,000 1,395 978,610 36,677 1,273 2,767,149 1972 1,805 7,459 6,828 393 1,501,184 639 462,546 4,271 1,985,125 1977 3,073 37,943 13,680 2,748 1,130,986 851 978,584 40,360 0 2,208,225 a/ Includes both inbound and outbound traffic from local, domestic and foreign ports. b/ N.O.S. =Not Otherwise Specified. Source: Port of Anchorage. 1973 1,845 14,994 3,336 539 1,507,994 1,008 476,883 5,739 2,012,338 1978 5,784 21,879 14,184 272 0 977,600 604 1,013,427 39,746 0 2,073,495 1974 8,005 18,225 14,787 13,921 1,595,667 2,220 590,474 11,846 2,255,175 1979 2,324 21,423 5,751 34 0 678,008 1,427 934,125 28,626 0 1,671,720 From Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enter- prise. June 1980. Alaska Statistical Review 1980. p. J-5. Two physical phenomena hamper activity in the port. The first is the fact that the harbor is not ice free, however, the tidal action does keep the ice broken. A second problem arises from the need to dredge the channel on an annual basis in order to maintain a sufficient depth for ocean-going vessels. 3.5.2.2 -Marine Highway The Alaska Marine Highway primarily serves southeastern Alaska con- necting the numerous islands and communities with each other and Seattle. Another section of the Marine Highway connects Valdez, Cordova, and Whittier. Part of this system connects cities on the Kenai Peninsula with various communities out on the Alaska peninsula and Aleutian Islands. Total traffic on this system during 1978 was 47,000 passengers and 13,000 vehicles. Valdez was among the busiest ports. There is no service to Anchorage. 3.5.2.3 -Road and Highway The road and highway system in Alaska consists of roughly 11,000 miles of paved and unpaved surfaces. The pri nci pa 1 roads connect Anchorage and Valdez with Fairbanks and connect these points to the Alaska Highway. The Alaska Highway is the only overland route connecting the Lower-48 with Alaska. The Al-Can Highway consists of approximately 1,520 miles of gravel road and runs from Dawson Creek, British Columbia to Fairbanks. Figure 7 presents a schematic of the major highways and traffic volumes for selected points in Study Area 3. The Parks Highway is the principal route within the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, connecting what were previously remote sites with both Fairbanks and Anchorage. Of the highways in this region, the Parks is the newest and most heavily used. A wide variety of commodities are transported along the Parks Highway including about 75,000 tons for local delivery and approximately 150,000 tons of items bound for 97 I Parks Highway FIGURE 7 . PRINCIPAL HIGHWAYS AND TRAFFIC VOLUMES FOR SELECTED POINTS IN STUDY AREA 3 Al-Can Highway Talkeetna \ I • \ \ \ \ \ *Avera§e Daily Traffic=58 \ I 1" = 40 mi. , Automatic Traffic Average Annual Daily High Traffic Highway Name Recorder Number Mile Traffic -1979 ·Month -Count 1-Glenn F-1-42 138.50 17,328 Aug. 22,241 2-Parks F-2-35 35.95 1,248 Aug. 2,442 3 -Parks F-3-35 150.58 442 Aug. 842 4 -Parks F-4-35 268.91 914 Aug. 1,398 5 -Glenn F-4-42 262.89 425 July 739 6 -Richardson F-3-71 66.71 197 July 433 7-Richardson F-1-71 122.66 638 July 810 8 -Richardson F-2-71 223.61 202 July 371 Source: Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, Transportation Planning Division. 1979. Alaska Highways and Annual Traffic Volume Report. Vol. I, p. 44. 98 Fairbanks and other interior points (Institute of Social and Economic Research. June 1980. p. 19) The Borough is also connected with Valdez and the Al-Can Highway via the Glenn and Richardson Highways. During the summer months, the Denali Highway, a 160-mile dirt road, connects the Parks Highway with the Richardson Highway. The Denali Highway is not plowed in the winter, and therefore closed to traffic. The construction and maintenance of roads in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough are performed under the auspices of a number of agencies and includes: federally assisted state projects; State bonded projects; state assisted borough projects (including the Local Service Roads and ·Trails Program, and the State Revenue Sharing Programs for roads admi- nistered through road service areas at the rate of $2,500 per mile of dedicated public road); and privately developed public roads {the Borough requires local roads and collectors to be built to minimum standards in accordance with its subdivision regulations). (Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980). The Richardson Highway, the State's oldest road, is the main arterial route connecting Valdez with Anchorage and Fairbanks. The 370 miles of this highway from Fairbanks to Valdez was used quite heavily during construction of the trans-Alaska pipeline, which has left several sec- tions of the road in particularly poor condition. The section from Gulkana to Delta Junction is perhaps the worst. The highway is four lanes from Fairbanks to Eielson and two lanes the remainder of its length. {Institute of Social and Economic Research. June 1980). 3.5.2.4 -Rail The 470-mile corridor from Seward to Fairbanks is connect~d, in addi- tion to the Parks Highway, by the only federally-owned and operated railroad in the United States. Physically, the system is well- maintained. Major renovations and upgrading of the track and struc- tures during the 1975-1977 period accounts for its excellent conditon. 99 Annual traffic volume varies between 1.8 and 2.3 million tons, with coal and gravel accounting for 75 percent of this. It is estimated that the system is working at only 20 percent of its capacity at pre- sent (conversation with Fred Hoefler, Alaska Railroad). About half the total volume is transported during the summer months in transporting gravel, from Palmer to Anchorage. Coal from Healy mines, amounting to approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons annually, is transported to Fairbanks and Eielson Air Force Base. (Institute of Social and Economic Research. June 1980; p. 21). Freight service operates three times weekly between Anchorage and Fairbanks, with overnight delivery to Fairbanks of goods arriving in Anchorage by ship. In addition, coal trains operate twice weekly from Healy to Fairbanks; there is service once or twice weekly from Anchorage to meet barges in Whittier; once weekly to Seward, mostly for 1 og movements; and five or six times weekly for summer gravel trains from Palmer to Anchorage. Freight rates are calculated on a per volume basis and therefore no set rate exists. Daily Anchorage-Fairbanks and Anchorage-Whittier passenger service is provided during the summer months with service being reduced to twice and three times weekly, respectively, during the winter. The passenger train will stop at any location for embarking or disembarking passengers. 3.5.2.5-Air Because of the long distances between populated centers and the lack of roads in Alaska, air transportation is the major form of transportation in moving passengers throughout the state. If it were not for air transportation, many coastal and bush communities would be inac- cessible. The airport facilities at Anchorage and Fairbanks are of international classification and there are two airlines that schedule daily flights to Valdez; Valdez Airlines and Alaska Aeronautical 100 Industries. Also available is commercial weekly service to Glennallen, Tok, and Delta Junction. Anchorage is the air traffic hub, not only of the region and the state, but also for the Northern Pacific Rim. It is also a major refueling point for air traffic between the Far East and Europe. Both Fairbanks and Anchorage serve this function as a refueling stop, however, Fairbanks is becoming increasingly more important in this role because of the new jet fuel refining capabilities at Earth Resources North Pole refinery outside of Fairbanks. Figure 8 is a schematic of international, interstate, and intra- regional scheduled air services. Private air transportation, is a primary form of transportation to com- munities that do not offer commercial scheduled service. For many areas in Alaska this may be the only link to populated centers. This is not necessarily the case in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and the Valdez-Cordova census division because of the comprehensive highway system, nonetheless, many communities have active airstrips. The largest airport in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is the Palmer Municipal Airport, with a 5,000 foot runway. As displayed in Table 21 and Figure 9, community airstrips are abundant in Study Area 2. 3.5.3 -Communications 3.5.3.1 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough 3.5.3.1.1 -Telephone The Matanuska Telephone Association (MTA} was incorporated in 1953 and originally provided services to four exchanges in the Matanuska Valley; Chugiak, Palmer, Wasilla, and Sutton. It was not until 1965 that the Susitna Valley first received service. 101 ...... 0 N 1 Ketchikan 2Wranoeu 3 Petersburg 4 S11ka !i Juneau 6WhitehorM 1 Yaku.,t 8 Cordova 9 Anchorage 10 Homer II Kodiak 12 Iliamna 13 Kong Salmon 14 Dillingham 15 Port Heiden To Adak, Auu. lind Shernv• 16 Sand Point 17 Cold Bay 18 Ou t~h HarbOr 19 Bethel 20 Aniak 21 St. Mary'J 22 McGrath 23 Unalaklell 24 Nome 2!i Galenl 26 Fairbank• 27 Kotzebue 28 Barrow 29 Prudhoe Bay To the Orient~ --~··-"' 28 6'4>1 I ) FIGURE 8 To Europe \ Honolulu Principal Scheduled Alaska Air Service -----Wien Air Ala•ka Alaska Airlines • ... • Reeve Aleutian Airways • • • Western Airlinll • • • Northwest Orient Airline! International Carrion point I San FranciJCo Source: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. June 1980. Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions. Alaska's Unique Transportation System. p. 23. FIGURE 9 AlR TRAN~PORTATlON Soocce' Mat•no,k•-So,ltn• Bocoogh Pl•nnlng Dep•ctment. •pc\1 197B. Ph''' 1' Compcehen'''' De,elopment Pl•n· Pa1mer, AK. 245 pp. MTA currently operates nine exchanges, the majority of which are in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Three exceptions are the Healy and Cantwell exchanges which are located directly north of the Borough a 1 ong the Parks Highway, and the Tyonek exchange 1 ocated on the north shore of Cook Inlet. At the end of 1979, the MTA was serving 10,881 telephones in nine exchanges (conversation and correspondence with Don Taylor, Matanuska Telephone Association, Pa 1 mer). Overall station growth slowed in 1979 to about eight percent, which allowed greater emphasis on service improvements and expan- sions. MTA's service area recently expanded to incorporate the area along the Glenn Highway which was previously served by the Copper Valley Telephone Association. Among other plans for extending service is one, which pending state utilities Commission approval, will extend lines in the summer of 1981 to include the Pt. McKenzie agricultural development project. It is anticipated that there will be approximately 75 to 80 new services when the development is completed {Frontiersman, January 15-21, 1981). There are also plans for the completion of a new digital switching system office in Wasilla in 1982. The existing Wasilla Central Office Equipment will be available for re-use for required addi- tions in the future. MTA is also proceeding this year with its plans to implement a backbone microwave system. Other plans include the implementation of a mobile radio telephone and radio paging service for the Palmer and Wasilla area, and later to other areas as demand dictates. This project is currently in the budget for 1981. Approval for the provision of cable television to selected areas in the Borough has been granted by the Alaska Public Utilities Co11111ission, and is ·awaiting FCC approval. Rural radio systems provide service to isolated indivi- dua 1 subscribers in the Cantwell-Talkeetna area (Matanuska Telephone Association, Inc. 1978). 105 MTA is a member of the Rural Electrification Association Cooperative and as such must submit loan proposals for the necessary capital for expansions and improvements. The proposals are based upon subscriber data, population forecasts, and histori- cal trends in the service area. The 1978 -1983 supplemental loan proposal which amounted to $41,011,390 was in anticipation of the capita 1 needs for the above 1 is ted expansions and improvements. As of January 14, 1980, Talkeetna had 232 total lines and telphone numbers in service for single and multi-line customers and it was forecasted that there would be a need for 672 in 1990. At the same time, Palmer and Wasilla had 2,725 and 2,500 respectively, with an anticipated increase to 8,841 in 1990 for Palmer and 12,164 for Wasilla. At the end of 1979 Cantwell had 45 with an expected increase to 95 in 1990 and Healy had 230 with a predic- tion for a need of 779 in 1990. (Fill Report, December 1980). In the immediate future there are plans· for the addition of 100 lines and 100 terminals in Healy; 200 lines and 200 terminals in Willow; and 200 lines and 100 terminals in Talkeetna (conversation with Don Taylor, Matanuska Telephone Association, Inc.). Table 25 displays the 11 capacities 11 or numbers of installed ser- vices of all classes in the various exchanges in the Borough; the number presently assigned; and the available spare. This does not take into consideration the above mentioned additions. 3.5.3.1.2 -Radio While many of the Anchorage radio stations can be received in the Borough, the Borough is now served by its own station.. Formed in 1972 by a group of Valley residents, Valley Radio Corporation went on the air in September, 1979. KABN's Big Lake studio broadcasts approximately 138 hours per week on 1150 AM, with a power of 5,000 watts. The transmitter and other equipment are engineered for 106 Exchange Big Lake Healy Palmer Talkeetna Tyonek & Cantwell Wasilla Will ow TABLE 25 MATANUSKA TELEPHONE ASSOCIATION, INC. TOTAL NUMBER OF INSTALLED, ASSIGNED, AND SPARE TERMINALS AND 1990 ESTIMATE -DECEMBER 1980- Installed Assigned Spare 900 686 214 400 274 126 3,300 2,881 419 400 257 143 90 47 23 5,500 2,614 2,886 300 246 54 Estimated 1990 2,151 779 8,841 672 80 95 12,164 701 Source: Matanuska Telephone Association, Inc. December 1980. Fill Report. Palmer, AK; 12 pp. ES/P 107 stereo transmission, although broadcasting is currently in mono. Its light rock format includes numerous special interest programs giving special attention to Valley activities (Markle, June 19, 1980). 3.5.3.1.3 -Television Valley residents presently receive the four Anchorage television stations. The MTA is studying the feasibility of expanding its services to include Cable TV for both rural and core area subscri- bers. Following the analysis of the market and construction costs, rates will be set and the application to the Alaska Public Utilities Commission will begin {Matanuska Telephone Association, 1980). 3.5.3.1.4 -Newspapers The area is served by two weekly newspapers; the Valley Sun which is distributed to all of the Borough's 7,400 postal patrons, and the Frontiersman, founded in 1947, which is distributed to 2,500 paid subscribers. 3.5.3.2 -Valdez and Copper River Region Prior to the implementation of the RCA-Alascom communication system in the Valdez and Glennallen region, television, telephone, and telex ser- vices were either non-existent or of debatable quality in most com- munities. Now service is provided to nearly all settled communities in the area and distributed by several franchises. 108 3.5.3.2.1 -Telephone Telephone service is provided by Copper Valley Telephone Cooperative (CTV) to both Valdez and the Glennallen Region. The Copper Valley Telephone Cooperative currently provides over 3,900 phones for a population of 4,100, and the Glennallen region is up to 1,200 phones from the 700 reported in 1976. It is reported that there were more phones installed in Valdez in 1979 than any year since the ·1973-76 pipeline era boom. (Alaska Journal of Commerce, January 26, 1981). 3.5.3.2.2 Radio There are no local Valdez radio stations. However, the residents of the city are able to receive a station from Anchorage, KBYR. The residents of Glennallen and surroundfng communities are served by KCAM, which is broadcast by the Central Alaska Mission in Copper Center. 3.5.3.2.3 -Television At the present time, television is brought into Valdez by the State Satellite Television Project, which provides a series of prerecorded television programs. Cable television is also available through the Valdez Cable Company. Glennallen and surrounding communities just recently started receiving programs provided through the State Satellite Television Program. Television from fairbanks (KFAR) can also b~ received in some portions of the region by a booster station. 109 3.5.3.2.4 -Newspaper Currently only one newspaper is published in Valdez, The Valdez Vanguard. It is a weekly and has an estimated ci rcul ati on of 1,500 in the city and immediate area. Published in Kenny Lake is The Copper Valley Views. It serves the area from Paxson to Valdez along the Richardson Highway and has an estimated circulation of 750. The newspaper is moving from Kenny Lake to Mile 182 on the Richardson Highway in the summer of 1981. 3.5.4 -Power Availability 3.5.4.1 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough The Matanuska-Susitna Borough and northern portion of the Muncipal ity of Anchorage are currently serviced by , the Matanuska Electric Association, Inc. (MEA), located in Palmer. As of August 31, 1980, MEA served 12,969 meters in 3,360 square miles of southcentral Alaska. Just as Copper Valley Electric Association was impacted by the construction of the pipeline, MEA witnessed an increase in power requirements primarily as a result of workers moving into the service area. A second occurrence that spurred residential and commercial activity in MEA's service area, therefore increasing power demands, was the vote to move the State Capital from Juneau to Willow. Table 26 illustrates the growth in the region with a steadily increasing number of consumers from 1975 to 1980. Wholesale power is purchased primarily from Chugach Electric Association's natural gas-fired turbines at Beluga and Bernice Lake, as well as from the Alaska Power Administration's Eklutna hydroplant and a small hydroelectric operation at Cooper Lake located on the Kenai Peninsula. 110 TABLE 26 NUMBER OF ELECTRICAL CONSUMERS: MATANUSKA, VALDEZ, AND GLENNALLEN DIVISIONS 1975 -1980 MATANUSKA DIVISION CONSUMER 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Residential 1 6,729 Small Commercial 896 Large Commercial 62 CONSUMER 1975 Residential 1 533 Small Commercial 164 Large Commercial 21 Other 14 CONSUMER 1975 Residential 1 418 Small Commercial 115 Large Commercial 24 Other 26 7,681 1,056 72 8,991 10,830 11,287 11,957 1,183 1,214 1,255 1,254 82 93 100 99 VALDEZ DIVISION 1976 1,052 207 24 14 1977 1,040 190 32 14 GLENNALLEN DIVISION 1976 621 138 33 31 1977 651 163 40 33 1978 - 892 196 33 19 1978 666 173 21 34 1979 959 194 33 23 1979 629 200 18 35 1980 1,053 195 32 30 1980 644 209 17 35 1 Full time residential and seasonal are combined. For the Mat-Su Division, seasonal consumers account for 638; 645; 670; 678; and 660 of the total consumers for the period 1975 to 1979, inclusive (approximately 9 percent of the total residential). Sources: Copper Valley Electric Association, Inc. Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections, p. 90. 111 Over the years, MEA has followed an aggressive expansion program to keep pace with the rapidly increasing population of the Borough. However, as people have become more energy conservative, the average energy usage has actually declined since 1978. Energy awareness is exhibited by the upgrading of the quality of insulation in houses and the utilization of wood burning stoves as a back-up source of heat. The downturn in the economy has also been a contributing factor to a lesser power demand. Figures 10, 11, and 12 show the trends in kilowatt hrs./month/ consumer for residential, small corrnnercial, and large commercial. Currently 95 percent of new houses being constructed in the Matanuska-Susitna portion of the service area are equipped with electric heat. This figure is much lower in the southern portion of the service area where less than 5 percent have electric heat because of the readily available low cost gas in the area. Table 27 provides MEA and Copper Valley Electric Association Residential consumer rates and Table 28·shows consumer cost relative to other areas in the state and country. Similar information for small commercial and large commercial is also available. Since the coopera- tive purchases all of its electricity, its rates are largely dependent upon its wholesale purchase price. The price of hydroelectric power purchased from the Alaska Power Administration can be expected to remain relatively stable. However, power from Chugach Electric Association will probably increase in price due to increases in the price of natural gas. Beluga Field natural gas used for power may take an immediate leap from 13.3¢/mcf to 84.7¢/mcf when Pacific-Alaska LNG purchases gas from the same field. There has also been a move by the federal government to limit the use of natural gas by el~ctric utili- ties. However, even if limitations are not imposed, the price is expected to increase. (Overall Economic Development Program, Inc., July 1980; pp. 86-87). 112 1,300 1,100 900 .s::: 3 700 ~ 500 300 100 FIGURE 10 RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC CONSUME~S 11AT-SU, VALDEZ, AND GLENt~ALLEN DISTRICTS (kwh/month/consumer) • ..... .......... _. ____ . .......... ... _. ', ·--·--· --·- ', _ ... ·---·--· 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 f1at-Su Valdez Glennallen Source: Conversation with Dan Teggler, Copper Valley Electric Association. Conversation with Ken Ritchey, Matanuska Electric Association. 113 2,600 2,40Cl 2,200 2,000 ..r:: .:.- ..::L. 1,800 1.600 1,400 1,200 1,000 FIGUR~ 11 Sr1ALL CQr.1~1ERCIAL ELECTRICAL CONSLit·1ERS ~1AT -SU, VALDEZ, AND GLENNALLEN DISTRICTS ·- (kwh/month/consumer) .......... _- ."" ·~ • Glennallen \ \ \ \ \ • • Valdez ' ' I ·--. \ I \\ / \ '/ " .......... ......... felat-Su 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Source: Conversation with Dan Teggler, Copper Valley Electric Association. Conversation with Ken Ritchey, Matanuska Electric Association. 114 46,000 42,000 38,000 34,000 ~ 30,000 3 ~ 26,000 22,000 18,000 14,000 10,000 FIGURE 12 LARGE conr1ERCIAL ELECTRICAL CO~·~SUt'tERS r·1AT -SU, VALDEZ, AND GLEf!W\LLEN DISTRICTS (kwh/month/consumer) I I • 1\ I \ \ I I \I • • /" • I ·--· / .:::..:....-· / I --. /. ',·~· e; • ' I I ' . ' • I ;• I I I / I I ' --· '.- 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 G1ennallen r·1at-Su Valdez Source: Conversation with Dan Teggler, Copper Valley Electric Assocation. Conversation with Ken Ritchey, ~1atanuska Electric Assosication. 115 TABLE 27 RESIDENTIAL CONSUMER RATES MATANUSKA ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION! First 100 kwh @ 11.6¢ per kwh Next 150 kwh @ 7.7¢ per kwh Next 250 kwh @ 5.8¢ per kwh Next 700 kwh @ 3.2¢ per kwh Over 1,200 kwh @ 2.6¢ per kwh COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION2 First 100 kwh @ 24.0¢ per kwh Next 100 kwh @ 20.5¢ per kwh Next 400 kwh @ 17.0¢ per kwh Over 600 kwh @ 13.0¢ per kwh VALDEZ DISTRICT First 200 kwh @ 20.0¢ per kwh Next 400 kwh @ 12.0¢ per kwh Over 600 kwh @ 10.0¢ per kwh 1 Source: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. 2 Source: Conversation with Dan Teggler, Copper Valley Electric Association. 116 ..... ..... ...... TABLE 28 CDNSUMER OOST OF ELB::TRIC mERGY FDR SPECIFIED USI\GFS AND SUPPLIERS (Residential Rate Analysis -lklllars p:!r ~l>nth Billed) seattle J<ilowatt-City hours Light 500 5,84 1300* - 3000 38.80 4500 - CFJ\ Urban Rate 19,90 39.85 74.65 104.65 19.79 45.31 99.54 157,39 CF.NI'S PER 1<1-IH 1 sarre usa~s and BI.IEE1 iers I 500 1.17 3.98 3.96 1300* -3.07 3.49 JOOO 1.29 2.49 3.32 4500 -2.33 3.28 CEA SubUrban Rate 25.15 48.25 83.05 113.05 5.08 3.71 2.77 2.51 Dallas,TX Power & Light ~!FA 27.76 37.65 -62.65 147.33 106.85 -145.85 5.55 7.53 -4.82 4.91 3.56 -3.24 CFJ\ Rural Rate 43.71 73.96 107.96 137.96 8.74 5.69 3.60 3.07 **HEA (N.of IDs, ling, Kachcmak Water & Bay) Power 35,25 32.05 74.25 - 135.25 192.27 180.25 - 7.05 6.41 5.71 - 4.51 6.41 4.01 - N.Yk.City COnsol. CIIEA GIJFA Edison Valdez 48.59 49.03 62.40 114.91 -135.40 228,99 277.52 279.90 326.49 -407.40 9.72 9.81 12.48 8.83 -10.41 7.63 9.25 9.33 7.26 -9.05 * I1F1I approxiJMte average usage, figure used to determine ranking: left to right is low to high. ** Prom rate request suhmitted to APlJC, May 19, 1900. Prepared by Public Infornation Office Matanuska Electric Association, Inc. Palrrcr, Alaska June, 1980 CEA HEA lirA GVEA CVJ::A Chugach Electric Association, Inc. ~~tanuska Electric Association, Inc. HCII'Cr Electric Association, Inc. Golden Valley Electric Association, Inc. Copper Valley Electric Association, Inc. CVEA Glenn- allen 64.90 154.10 322.40 470.90 12.98 11.85 10.74 10.46 Source: Overall Economic Development Program Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections. Palmer, AK. p. 91. MEA assumes, as indicated in the 1979 Power Requirements stud.v, that the downturn in the economy is nearing its end, and will gradually recover over a two-year period. The 1979 Power Requirements study has a less opti~istic outlook than the 1978, but MEA estimates that at the end of five years, total requirements will be 324 million kwh/yr., and at the end of 10 years, total requirements will be 413 million kwh/hr. {Matanuska Electric Association, Inc., September 1980). Given the vicissitudes of growth in the Borough in the past, and the uncertainty of developments in the future, it is difficult to predict the future power requirements. 3.5.4.1.1 -Coal There are significant coal deposits in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The community of Eska-Sutton was composed mostly of employees of the Jonesville mine. Over 80 percent of the local coal market was represented by the Anchorage military bases. The mines were closed in the winter of 1968 after the bases completed their plant conversion from coal to gas. Coal mining activity today is limited to providing fuel for a few households. 3.5.4.1.2 -Natural Gas None of the area has natural gas service. 3.5.4.2 -Valdez and Copper River Region The area from Valdez to Paxson is supplied with electricity by the Copper Valley Electric Association, a non-profit Rural Electrifi- cation Administration electric utility. This service are~ is divided into two districts: the Glennallen district and the Valdez district. The Glennallen service district encompasses the area north to Paxson and South to Thompson Pass along the Richardson Highway and west to 118 Chickaloon on the Glenn Highway. The eastern boundary extends to Slana on the Tok cut-off. The boundaries of the Valdez service area extend from the Valdez port to the Keystone Canyon area leading to Thompson Pass. At present, an intertie between the two districts does not exist, but construction of a intertie is scheduled for completion in the fall of 1981 when the Solomon Gulch hydroelectric facilit.v is on line. The Solomon Gulch facility will produce 12 megawatts {MW). A second supplemental source of power in the future would be the installation of a 9.0 MW pressure-reducing turbine in the Trans-Alaska pipeline near Valdez. This plan would utilize the oil· flowing through the pipeline to power a turbine {U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. December 1979). Currently, all power is supplied by diesel generators. As illustrated in Table 26, the number of residential consumers doubled in the Valdez district from 1975 to 1976 reflecting the peak pipeline construction period. There was a slight decrease immediately following 1977, but the level has remained at almost 'double that of the pre- pipeline period. Small commercial and large commercial did not show any dramatic changes in the Valdez district, nor did any of the con- sumer classes in the Glennallen division. In terms of average kilowatt hours/month/consumer, as Tables 10, 11, and 12 illustrate, there has actually been a reduction in the average use in all classes of consumers in both the Valdez and Glennallen district except for small and large commercial consumers in the Glennallen district. Whereas the number of large commercial consumers has actually decreased since 1975 in the Glennallen district, the average kwh/mo./consumer in 1980 is over five times that of the 1975 level. This increase in requirements is directly related to the pipe- line, and specifically, the installation of two pumping st~tions, three mechanical refrigeration sites, and a series of thirteen block valve sites in the Glennallen area ,{Institute of Social and Economic Research. 1976. pp. 3-7). 119 3.5.5 -Police 3.5.5.1 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough Pol ice protection in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is provided by the Alaska State Troopers, of which there are a total of 14 in the Borough, with the largest detachment of seven in Palmer. The remaining seven are dispersed throughout the Borough with two in Wasilla, one at Big Lake, one at Trapper Creek, and three in Talkeetna. Four additional troopers have the responsibility of fish and wildlife protection and enforcement. The City of Palmer is the only first class, home rule city in the Borough and therefore has police powers of seven officers and five civilian support personnel. The most common crime is vandalism in an otherwise low crime rate district. There are three detention and correctional facilities in the Borough: a temporary detention facility in Palmer maintained by the Palmer Police Department; Mclaughlin Youth Center in Wasilla providing long and short term correctional facilities for juveniles, and the Adult Correctional Facility located near Sutton providing long and short term correctional facilities for adults. The Hilstrom Building in Palmer houses the one court in the Borough. (Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980). 3.5.5.2 -Valdez As would be expected, the City of Valdez experienced a dramatic rate of increase in criminal activity during the pipeline construction period. In fact, crime increased at a rate that far surpassed the rate of increase in population. Steady increases were observed in larcenies and alcohol related disturbances. Consequently, the Valdez Police 120 Department has expanded from a staff of two. prior to the commencement of the pipeline. to its present size of 13 full time officers and five full-time dispatchers. Out of the 13 officers. one is an investigator. and one is a juvenile officer. The Valdez Police Department occupies a recently completed wing in the City Hall and has a contract with the state for use of the seven cell detention facility with a total of 12 beds. There is a state trooper post in Valdez that is staffed by two troopers and one scale operator. (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. December 1979; p. II-64). 3.5.5.3 -Glennallen The only state trooper post between Valdez and Fairbanks along the Richardson highway is in Glennallen. This ·facility maintains seven troopers. four dispatchers. and one motor vehicle clerk. One addi- tional trooper is located in Paxson assigned to fish and wildlife enforcement. Also located in Glennallen is a court building which contains two holding facilities and a court room for the one full time magistrate. 3.5.6-Fire Protection 3.5.6.1 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough The existing fire service areas of Houston, Wasilla, Palmer, Butte, and Sutton are displayed in Figure 13. Figure 14 represent~ the recent work of the Mission Research Corporation in establishing and proposing fire service areas that would provide fire protection for up to 95 per- cent of the Matanuska-Susitna Valley population. The large circles correspond to existing fire stations and the small circles represent 121 ....... N N FIGURE 13 EXISTING FIRE SERVICE AREAS C:2:) EXISTING FIRE SERVICE AREAS' ~ POPULATION BOUNDARY (<10/•q. mi.) 11985) EJ:1 HIGH DENSITY POPULATION AREA (>50/•q. mi.) (1985) Source: Mission Research Corporation, Fire Protection Plan for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough -Alaska, Interim Report, April 1980. ,..... N w FIGURE 14 PROPOSED FIRE SERVICE AREAS CAPITOL t:::2:::J RECOMMENDED FIRE SERVICE AREA BOUNDARIES ~ POPULATION BOUNDARY C<10j1q. mi.) (1985) E::::C:J HIGH DENSITY POPULATION AREA (>50/lq. mi.) (1985) Q EXISTING FIRE STATION 0 NEW FIRE STATION Source: Mission Research Corporation, Fire Protection Plan For The Matanuska-Susitna Borough ~ Alaska, Interim Report, April 1980. proposed stations. The need for a redefinition of service areas and the addition of six fire stations is in response to the increased popu- lation in the Borough. Mission Research Corporation based its proposed boundaries on response time, road conditions, and the need for a balance between area and population. The cost of fire protection in these areas is funded by a special village rate on the assessed valuation within the service areas. The expansion of the boundaries in addition to providing more compre- hensive service in the Palmer and Wasilla area, includes the addition of service in the vicinity of Willow and Big Lake. Population is per- ceived to increase in Willow whether or not the capital move materiali- zes. There are a few other fire protection facilities in the Borough, namely the Talkeetna Fire Hall with three pieces of equipment and the inactive Trapper Creek facility. There are no changes recommended in the boundaries of these areas. Areas of the Borough not within the boundaries of a fire service area must rely on their own resources and volunteer assistance of their neighbors. The fire stations in Palmer and Houston are the only two city- maintained stations in the Borough and have three full time employees, two in Palmer and one in Houston. All other fire stations are main- tained by the Borough and rely on volunteer service. 3.5.6.2 -Copper River Region Fire Protection in the Copper River region is carried out by volunteer forces. There are presently two fire stations in the region: one in Glennallen with five pieces of equipment and one in Copper Center with two pieces of equipment. The fire stations are maintained .Primarily by state revenue sharing. 124 3.5.7-Health Services The Municipality of Anchorage, being the predominant metropolitan area and transportation center in the state, has developed a comprehensive acute and long-term health care system in keeping with the needs of the state, and therefore provides the main medical care for the residents of southcentral Alaska. The communities in the outlying areas are not without medical facilities; but it is not uncommon for patients to be airlifted to Anchorage when necessary. Table 29 should suffice in providing the necessary information for eva- luating the capabilities of the various medical facilities in Anchorage, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Valdez, and·the communities along the Richardson Highway. The best indicators of performance and capacity are the occupancy rates and average day per patient figures. The low average day per patient figure for Valdez reflects the young, healthy composition of the residents. Even during the peak of the pipeline construction, the occupancy of Valdez Community Hospital never exceeded 50 percent. {Conversation with supervising nurse, Valdez Community Hospital, Valdez, AK). 3.5.7.1 -Anchorage Anchorage provides a wide spectrum of health services to its residents in addition to the acute care mentioned above. The following section briefly describes the long term care, ambulatory service, and other health services offered. This information on health facilities in Anchorage is extracted from Ender, Richard L., et al. January 1980. Volume I: Gulf of Alaska and Lower Cook Inlet Development Scenarios Anchorage Socioeconomic and Physical Baseline. Anchorage, .AK. p. 363. 125 1-' N 0'1 TABLE 29 MEDICAL FACILITIES/SERVICES AND INPATIENT UTILIZATION DATA -19RO- FAITH 1 VAlDrl VAttn 1 ALASKA] ALA<;KA NATTVE? Hospital COMMUN!TYl PROV HlENCE 2 MfOICAL r£NTFR ---- location Glennallen Valdez Palmer Anchorage Anchorage Anchoraqe Type Emergency and Emergency and Acute and long-Acute Acute Acute short-term minor surgery term cure facH ity Service Area Approx. Paxson Valdez Matanuska-Susitna Anchorage and Anchorage Anchorage & to Gulkana on Borough vicinity and vicinity vicinity Richardson High- way & 100 miles west on Glenn Highway. No. of Beds 5 adult 15 23 199 268 170 1 pediatric 2 hospHal-3 8 214 N/A No. of Ooctors N/A based Cost per day $100/day semi-$210/day semi-$185/day semi-$220/day semi- private private private private N/A N/A $200/day CCU or $230/day private $190/day private $225/day private ICU Occupancy Rate 30% 13.4% 49'l 56% 82.4'1: 72.3% Admissions 271 301 1,289 7,926 11,356 4,629 Average Day/ 2.43 2.45 10.3 4.6 5.7 9.7 Patient Patient Days Per Year 661 737 13,276 36,459 69,729 44,901 Outpatients Served '9,900 3,725 11,965 N/A N/A N/A No. of Ambulances 2 2 EMT out of Palmer Fire Hall N/A N/A N/A Patients Evacuated To Anchorage Anchorage Anchorage Seattle Seattle N/A 1 Source: Conversations with personnel at hospital. 2 Source: Ender, Richard L., et al. January 1980. Volume I: Gulf of Alaska and lower Cook Inlet Petroleum Development Scenarios. Anchorage Socioeconomic and Physical Baseline. Anchorage, AK. (1978 data) 3.5.7.1.1 -Long-Term Care Convalescent and long term care is provided by the following: a. Skilled nursing facilities. There are 101 skilled nursing beds for 24-hour professional restorative care. b. Intermediate care facilities. The role of the intermediate care facilities is to provide limited nursing and personal care to long-term patients with chronic medical problems. There are currently 217 intermediate care beds available in Anchorage. c. Residential and custodial care facilities. Constraints involved in securing licensing and adequate funding have precluded the development of needed residential and custodial facilities. There are currently 100 beds in the Anchorage Pioneer Home for 65-year old Alaska'n residents (of at least 15 years). There are approximately 14 residential facilities for youth, drug, alcohol, and other rehabilitative clients. Because of federal government reimbursement requirements, custodial care is more costly to the state than intermediate care and therefore, this element of a comprehensive health care system has not developed in relation to the needs indi- cated within the community. 3.5.7.1.2 -Ambulatory Care As an alternative to institutionalized care, ambulatory care through outpatient services, private clinics, practices, etc. is designated to facilitate at-home convalescence. 127 3.5.7.1.3 -Emergency Care Trained medics with the Muncipality of Anchorage Emergency Medical Services provide on-site aid in emergency situations. The Emergency Medical Division has five medic units with 36 personnel on staff including administration. 3.5.7.1.4-Specialty Services In addition to standard medical facilities and services available, the local delivery system also provides: full burn and debriding room; hypothermia expertise; comprehensive or orthopedic surgical and therapy unit; neurosurgery and neurology expertise; two comprehensive critical care units; two comprehensive neo-natal intensive care units; open-heart I.C. surgical expertise; renal dialysis; cardiovascular catheterization; and nuclear medicine. 3.5.7.1.5 -Mental Health Mental health care is provided by both the private and public sec- tor. Types of services that presently exist in Anchorage are: psychiatric inpatient (200 beds at Alaska Psychiatric Institute); outpatient therapy and counseling; crisis lines; rape and assault counseling; battered women and children•s services; group homes; facilities for developmental and emotional disabilities; and pastoral counseling. In addition, each acute care facility provides inpatient psychiatric services~ as well as many of the services listed above. 128 3.5.7.1.6 -Social Services The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, Division of Social Services is the principal provider of social services in the Municipality of Anchorage. Additional services, to a limited degree, are also provided by the local municipal and select pri- vate organizations. Local social services available in the Anchorage area fall into six categories: 1. children's services; 2. senior citizens' assistance; 3. employment assistance; 4. income assistance; 5. housing assistance; and 6. youth services. For greater detail and a more comprehensive understanding of the medical and social services provided in the Anchorage area, it is suggested that the reader consult directly to the source: Ender, Richard L. et al., January 1980. 3.5.7.2 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough 3.5.7.2.1 -Acute Care The Valley Hospital in Palmer currently provides acute and some 1 ong-term care with a total of 23 beds; 19 for acute and 4 for long-term. There are a total of 8 doctors, consisting of a pediatrician, surgeon, OB/GYN specialist, and five family practic- tioners. 129 One explanation for the re·latively high average day per patient figure is (Table 29) due to the fact that surgery is performed at the Valley Hospital, therefore requiring a longer period of time in the hospital. The 11,965 outpatients served in 1980 is a combination of emergency care and X-ray/lab patients in both the Valley Hospital and the Wasilla satellite X-ray lab facility. The Valley Hospital, which was built in 1954, was once more than adequate to serve the residents of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. However, it is now beginning to reach its limits. An independent consultant recently completed a cost study of several alternatives for expanding hospital services in the Borough. The recommen- dation was that a new hospital be built in Palmer rather than Wasilla due to the extra costs of sewage, road access, wells and power extension associated with the Wasflla site evaluated. The recommendation was unanimously accepted by the Board of Directors of the Valley Hospital Association, and they will now continue efforts to secure funding for the project. Both traditional sources of finance and a State grant are being explored, however, the board has found existing loan programs to be too costly and a State grant seems most immenent (Frontiersman, Apri 1 9-15, 1981, pp 1). 3.5.7.2.2 -Long-Term Care The Palmer Pioneer Home provides long-term nursing and non-nursing care for the elderly. 3.5.7.2.3-Emergency Medical Services Ambulance service in the Borough is dispatched through the Palmer Fire Center on a 24-hour basis. There are presently 10 ambulances 130 located throughout the Borough with one back-up at the Borough office in Palmer. Ambulances are distributed as follows: one ambulance in Sutton; two in Palmer; two in Wasilla; one in Houston; one in Willow; one in Trapper•s Creek; one in Talkeetna; and one at Matanuska Glacier. The 911 emergency service number is connected directly to the ambulance dispatch center at the Palmer Fire Station and the Valley Hospital. 3.5.7.2.4-Public Health Centers Three public health centers are located in the Borough: Palmer Health Care Center; Wasilla Health Care Center; and Cook Inlet Native Association Health Care Center {Wasilla). These centers provide the following-services: we 11 child assessment, immunizations, pap screening, pregnancy tests, glaucoma screening, TB skin tests, VD tests and treatment, and educational material on health. 3.5.7.2.5-Mental Health There are two mental health facilities located in the Borough: Langdon {Wasilla) and the Mat-Su Mental Health Center (Wasilla). Both facilities provide are: individual and group therapy; family and marital counseling; and alcohol and drug consultation. 3.5.7.3 -Valdez The extensive health service facilities available to the residents of Valdez include the 15-bed Valdez Community Hospital; the Valdez Mental Health Center; and the Harborview Developmental Center, a state faci- lity for the mentally and physically handicapped. 131 Additional service is provided by a public health nurse. Services include childhood services, communicable disease surveillance, immuni- zations, school health services, maternity care, and women•s clinics. Three physicians, a dentist, and an optometrist provide the medical expertise for the community which is supplemented by regular visits by specialists from other areas of the State. 3.5.7.3.1 -Mental Health The Valdez Mental Health Center began full-time operations in 1979. In its first year, the director recognized the need for an alcohol counseling program and has since implemented one. Sources of the Center•s budget include state and city contribu- tions, client payments, and third party payments. 3.5.7.3.2-Emergency Medical Service The 25-to-30 person volunteer emergency medical team operates two ambulances on a 24-hour basis. The voluntary team works in cooperation with the Valdez Fire Department. 3.5.7.3.3 -Social Services The following state programs and services are offered in the City of Valdez through the Alaska State Department of Health and Social Services and coordinated by the one part-time social worker: 1) adoption services; 2) child protection services; 3) counseling; 4} early and periodic screening; 5) diagnosis and treatment for health problems; 6) foster care; and 7) homemaker service 132 3.5.7.4-Copper River Region The Faith Hospital, located in Glennallen, and the State Public Health Nurses, located in various communities provide the framewor.k for the medical and health services in the Copper River Region. The Faith Hospital is owned and maintained by the Central Alaskan Mission and depends on outside mission support. It is a 6-bed facility providing emergency and short term treatment for residents in the immediate vici- nity. (see Table 29). A State Public Health nurse located in Glennallen provides itinerant, preventative care including well baby clinics, prenatal care, TB sur- veillance, school testing, and health teaching to the residents of the Copper River basin area. The residents of Cantwell receive similar service from a health nurse located in Fairbanks. Dent a 1 services are provided for one week every month by a vi siting dentist from Wasilla. The Copper River Native Association is currently utilizing a fully equipped mobile dental facility. All of the com- munities and villages in the region are accessible by road, and there- fore receive the services of the mobile dental unit. The Copper River Native Association maintains six health clinics which are supported by the Indian Health Services and staffed by health aides. The clinics are located in Cantwell, Chistochina, Chitina, Copper Center, Gulkana, and Mentasa. The health aides provide imme- diate emergency care to the residents of the surrounding area. Other services and programs available to the residents of the Copper River region include a nutrition program; an out-reach pr~gram; a men- tal health program; an alcohol program; an Indian child welfare act program; and homemaker services. Funding is provided through a com- bination of federal, state, and local organizations. (conversations with Ms. Billy Peters, Copper River Native Association). 133 3.5.8 -Libraries 3.5.8.1 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough The Matanuska-Susitna Borough has non-areawide library powers meaning that libraries within incorporated cities must be maintained by city residents and all other libraries are the responsibility of the Borough. Funds for the libraries are administered by the Matanuska-Susitna Library Association, an organization established for this such purpose. The Borough currently maintains the following 1 i bra ri es: Palmer District Court Library: contains law library with current reference books on Alaska State 1 aws and Alaska Supreme Court decisions Talkeetna Library Glenn Highway Rural Community Library in the glacier view area Matanuska-Susitna Community College Library, avai 1 able to the public Willow Library, for the greater Willow Community Sutton Community Library, for the Sutton Community Palmer and Wasilla each have a library which is city maintained. The Palmer City Library contains general reading material, audio-visual films, and records. The Wasilla Library contains general reading material with an emp~asis on children's material. In addition to Borough and City libraries, libraries are located in various Borough schools. 3.5.8.2 -Copper River Region The Copper River Region currently maintains two State grant-supported public libraries which are located in Glennallen and Kenny Lake. The 1 ibraries were originally housed in donated space and maintained by 134 volunteers. Several small libraries are also located in some of the public schools. There are also several small libraries at some of the public schools. 3.5.9 -Education Education in the State of Alaska is directed by a nine member State Board appointed by the Governor. The State Board in turn appoints the commissioner who holds responsibility for the management of the Department of Education. There are 52 school districts in Alaska with approximately 450 public schools. About one-half of the state•s 88,000 plus students and one- half of its 5,000 teachers are found in the Anchorage School District. The remainder of the school districts are, in comparison, very small in student enrollment, but extremely large in area. Individual school enrollments range from one room schools with ·less than 10 students to 2,000-3,000 student schools in Anchorage. Roughly 75 percent of the operating funds for local schools is provided by the state. Loca 1 governments, where they exist, pay about 20 per- cent, and federal government about 5 percent. (Alaska Department of Education. December 1980). 135 SCHOOL BOARD EXPENDITURE PER PUPIL School District Matanuska-Susitna North Slope Borough Anchorage Copper River National Average 3.5.9.1 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough $/Pupi 1 $ 3,491 11,311 2,864 N/A 2,800 The Matanuska-Susitna Borough presently operates 17 schools: 12 elemen- tary schools, two junior high schools, and three high schools. Junior Elementary Communities High School High School School Trapper Creek X Talkeetna X Montana Creek X X Wi 11 ow X Wasilla X X X Big Lake X Palmer X X X Glacier View X Skwentna X Butte X At the end of the 1979-80 school year there were approximately 4,330 students enrolled in the school system. The 1982 projection for total enrollment is 4,457, representing an increase of only 72 students from the current 1980 enrollment figure (Frontiersman, Jan. 15-21, 1981). The capacities and 1980 enrollments for the schools are displayed in 136 Table 30. Also illustrated are .plans for the expansion of existing facilities. The Borough schools are equipped to provide education and training for mentally retarded and physically handicapped children. There is a great demand for vocational training in the Borough school system for programs such as auto mechanics, welding, electronics, sur- veying, home economics, office accounting, small engines, and car- pentry. The vocational training facilities are tied directly into the regular school facilities and are, at present, able to keep pace with the demand. There are plans for the expansion of certain areas pending an authorization and funding. Besides serving the needs of the imme- diate community, the schools also provide education by correspondence to any resident in the State of Alaska. Situated between Wasill~ and Palmer is the Matanuska-Susitna Community College, a branch of the University of Alaska, which provides academic and vocational courses to residents in the region. The college has shown steady and healthy growth increasing from an enrollment of 512 in 1969 to 1,177 in 1980. 3.5.9.2 -Copper River Region The School Board for the Copper River School District is the only auto- nomous political unit in the Copper River Region. The school board is responsible for operating the school system, including the disposition of state funds, which cover all of local education costs. The size of the school district is comparable to the size of the State of West Virginia, encompassing an area north to Isabelle Pass (in the vicinity of the Denali and Richardson highway junction), south to Thompson Pass, west to the east side of Cantwell, and east to Mentasta Lake. Buses are the principal means of transportation to and from school, covering a total of 1,300 miles per day. 137 ....... w OJ School Big Lake Butte Glacier View Iditarod Sherrod Skwentna Snowshoe Swanson Talkeetna Trappers Creek School 1 Type Grade E 1-6 E 1-6 E/J 1-8 E Pre-6 E Pre, 3-6 E/J/S 4-12 E 1-6 E 1,2 E 1-6 E 1-6 TABLE 30 CHARACTERISTICS OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS: MATANUSKA-SUSITNA SCHOOL DISTRICT -1980- Capacity 2 ·Enrollment 1 280 132 500 280 70 55 450 438 450 433 15 11 500 345 350 205 120 47 70 38 Condition/ Plans for Expansion No plans. No plans. Currently consists of port- ables. Plan to build two classrooms. Recently burned down. Plan to have back in operation by 10/81. No plans. No plans. New facility. No plans. No plans. Presently four portable facilities. Have submitted a grant proposal for a multi- purpose faci 1 i ty. ....... w 1.0 School 1 School Type Grade Wasilla Elem. E 1 Willow Elem. E 1-6 Palmer J 7-8 Wasilla J 7-8 Palmer s 9-12 Susitna Valley J/S 7-12 Was ill a s 9-12 Matanuska- Susitan Com-cc N/A munity College Capacity 2 125 120 420 600 900 180 1,200 N/A TABLE 30 (cont.) Enrollment 1 87 97 287 333 594 130 673 1,177 E = Elementary; J = Junior; S = Senior; CC = Corrmunity College Condition/ Plans for Expansion Very old facility with half of building condemned. Have plans for a new facility in 1984. Expansion considered in the five year building plan. No plans. Recently completed addi- tion to facility. No plans. Plans for additions for the band and Vocational studies. Recently completed addition to the facility. N/A ~ Alaska Department of Education. December 1980. 1980-81. Alaska Education Directory; pp. 36, 37. Conversation with Mr. Hotchkiss; Business Manager of Mat-Su School District. E4/Xl There are a total of seven schools in the area (including the Nabesna school} as well as a branch of the Prince William Sound Community College located in Copper Center, and the Alaska Bible School. School enrollments range from 9 to 312 for a total of less than 600 students. The characteristics of the various schools and plans for expansion are summarized in Table 31. School enrollments during the pipeline construction period were the highest ever witnessed, and in some instances surpassed the capacities of the facilities. Enrollments have lowered since the pipeline, but increases are anticipated in the future and there are several bills presently before the State legislature concerning the expansion, impro- vement, and/or addition of facilities in the region. An active capital improvement program includes the construction of four new instructional areas and a multipurpose facility in Copper Center; a multipurpose faci 1 ity in Gakona; and remodeling at Kenny Lake School. In the past there was a 11 per head .. school tax, however,· it was rescinded in the last legislative session. The school facilities play a vital role in these communities which are sparsely populated and scattered over a large area. They are relied heavily upon as a place of convergence for community meet·ings, sporting events, and adult education meetings. 3.6 Economic Base 3.6.1 -State Economic Base 3.6.1.1 -Introduction This section will present general descriptions of the major components of the Alaska economy. It is organized by general industry groups. Industry groups are loosely grouped together into a productive sector and service/support sector. This approach approximates a 140 Location of School Copper Center Gakona Paxson Chistochina Glenallen Kenny Lake Copper Center TABLE 31 CHARACTERISTICS OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS: School Type E E/J E/J/S E/J E/J/S E/J/S cc COPPER RIVER SCHOOL DISTRICT ·1980- Grade Capacity Enrollment 1-6 100 40 1-8 60 35 1-12 30 11 1-8 40 9 1-12 345 312 1-12 150 110 E = Elementary; J = Junior High; S = Senior High; CC = Community College Plans for Expansion Building four new instructional areas and multi-purpose facility for Fall 1981. 100 student capacity. Building multi-purpose facility. No plans. Bill presently before 1 eg i s 1 a- ture for construction of a new building for 1982. Bill before legislature for construction of a new senior high school fn 1985. Remodel elementary school. Branch of Prince William Sound Community College. Source: Conversation with Dr. Keinke. Superintendent of Copper River School District basic/non-basic classification which will be utilized in the forecast and impact analysis sections of the study where use of an economic base model is contemplated. The rationale for an economic base model, and distinguishing between basic and non-basic industries, is the premise that growth in a region•s economy occurs in response to basic or exogenously determined demands. The region can be defined at any level where it is feasible to make the required distinctions. Individual industries can also be further allocated to basic and non-basic sectors. When appropriate these characteristics will be mentioned below. Still the purpose here is to present an overview and not a detailed analysis of linkages between industries and other dynamic elements of the eco- nomy such as income or employment multipliers. Detailed analysis will be performed later through utilization of pre- vious work on the subject for Alaska, analysis of interconnections of industries, analyzing exports, employing location quotients, or other methods. 3.6.1.2 -Mining 3.6.1.2.1 -Oil and Gas The sector which provides the greatest impetus for the contem- porary Alaskan economy is the mining sector. Within this sector the major industry is oil and gas. Table 32 shows the historical trends of output for various mineral products. Based on prel imi- nary figures for 1979, crude petroleum and natural gas comprise 97 percent of the total value of mineral production in the state. This trend is expected to continue as the federal leasing program progresses through 1985. 142 Year 1959 .......... . 1960 ..•........ 1961 .......... . 1962 .......... . 1963 .......... . 1964 .......... . 1965 .......... . 1966 .......... . 1967 .......... . 1968 .......... . 1969 .......... . 1970 .......... . 1971 .......... . 1972 .......... . 1973 .......... . 1974 ..•........ 1975 .......... . 1976 .......... . 1977 .......... . 1978 .......... . 1979P ......... . TABLE 32 VALUE OF ALASKA'S MINERAL PRODUCTS: 1959 · 1979 (thousands of dollars) Crude Petroleum8 $ 295 1,230 17,652 31,187 32,650 33,627 34,073 44,083 88,187 196,695 214,464 232,829 234,337 221,747 239,574 347,408 364,626 318,788 988,874 2,701,522 5,493,596 Natural Gasb $ 16 30 129 467 1,111 1,719 1,799 6,335 7,268 4,388 12,665 18,164 17,972 17,989 19,482 22,505 42,786 60,455 66,605 . 89,626 91,533 Sand & Gravel $ 5,265 5,483 4,185 5,355 22,005 18,488 34,467 21,793 27,683 20,366 18,615 41,092 32,806 15,214 19,913 52,788 25,780 204,738 134,251 145,300 150,000 Gold $ 6,262 5,887 3,998 5,784 3,485 2,045 1,479 956 910 835 881 1,265 537 506 695 1,461 2,419 2,868 2,812 3,610 w Other Mineralsc $ 8,673 9,230 8,789 11,399 8,589 10,068 11,637 13,133 13,099 9,416 11,018 16,782 14,044 16,293 26,821 14,861 39,514 34,191 33,443 14,752 17,543 Total $ 20,511 21,860 34,753 54,192 67,840 65,947 83,455 86,300 137,147 221,700 257,643 310,132 299,696 271,749 306,485 439,023 475,125 621.040 1,225,985 2,954,810 5,752,672 a/ Value figures for Prudhoe Bay oil are values at the point where the oil enters the trans-Alaska pipeline. Consequently, value figures shown above do not include pipeline transportation charges. b/ All natural gas values shown above include values of both dry and liquid gas, including casing head gas. c/ Included are values symbolized by a W (withheld). Source: Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior; Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Office of the Governor. From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enter- prise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AK. p. B-3. The impact of the oil and gas industry pervades all areas of Alaska's economy. In fiscal year 1980, it was estimated that the industry would contribute $1,233 million to the state's coffers. According to the State Department of Revenue, the industry actually paid approximately $2.5 billion in various taxes to the state in 1980. This constituted about 86 percent of gross reve- nues to the state. In 1981, the Department estimates the industry will provide $3.28 billion (90 percent) in unrestricted revenue. The advent of this revenue directly led to abolition of the state income tax in 1980. Table 33 summarizes the trend in petroleum revenues since 1971. In addition to revenue impacts, the industry employs substantial numbers of workers and creates employment and output in virtually all other sectors of the Alaskan economy. Oil companies plan to spend approximately $15 bill ion on field deve- lopment in Prudhoe Bay alone in the future to maintain production at close to 1.5 million barrels per day. The overwhelming majority of crude oil production is shipped out of state to Northwest and California refineries. In Alaska, pri- mary production of oil and gas has spawned several major projects which are or may serve as support facilities or purchasers/ pro- cessors of oil and gas products. The Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline is the largest of this type of project. Constructed between 1974 and 1977, the pipeline employed thousands of workers during its peak period and cost approximately $12 bi 11 ion. The growth-inducing impacts from the project were ubiquitous, but especially dramatic in Fairbanks and Valdez, the terminus of the pipeline. Anchorage experienced substantial economic growth as well. Several major projects are currently in the planning ,tages. The largest of these is the Northwest Alaska Gas Pipeline which would run from Prudhoe Bay to the midwestern United States. The 1979 estimates set the tag for the Alaskan portion at $6 to $8 billion. Another project associated with the oil industry is the Alaska Oil 144 Fiscal Year 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980*** 1981**** 1982**** TABLE 33 GROSS UNRESTRICTED* Am> PETROLEUM REVENUES (In Millions of Dollars) Alaska Fiscal Years 1971-1982** Gross Unrestricted Revenues $ 220.4 219.2 208.1 255.1 333.3 709.7 874.1 787.4 1,178.5 2,632.0 3, 641.5 4,936.4 $ --Gross Petroleum % of Amount ted 46.2 47.1 49.3 79.3 87.6 386.1 472.5 430.3 819.0 2,253.5 3,279.6 4,572.4 Revenues- Unrest ric- Revenues 21~~ 2U 2' OJ ~'" 31% 26% 54% 54% 55% 69% 86% 90% 93% * Incoming revenue which has not (excludes federal grants). been designated for a specific purpose ** The state's fiscal year runs from July 1 of the preceding year through June 30 of the year listed. *** Preliminary. **** Estimated. Source: Revenue Sources FY1980-1932, Alaska Department of Revenue; compiled by the CRC. From: Fairbanks North Star Borough~ Community Research Cente.r. Winter 1980, Vol. III, No. 4. Community Research Quarterly A Socio- Economic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 31. ' 145 Company's oil refinery in Valdez. Originally envisioned as a $1.5 billion petrochemical complex, the project has been pared down to a refinery only. Construction is scheduled to begin in 1980. Another project on the boards is a liquified natural gas plant located on the Kenai Peninsula. The Pacific Alaska Company pre- dicts the plant would handle up to 430 million cubic feet of gas per day for shipment to California. A more general project is being studied by a consortium of major businesses including Dow Chemical and Shell Oil. The Dow-Shell Group is performing feasi- bility studies concerning development of a petrochemical industry in Alaska. Potential sites which are under consideration include: Fairbanks, Seward, Valdez, the Kenai Peninsula, and Point McKenzie in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. 3.6.1.2.2 -Hard Minerals The history of hard mineral production in Alaska is characterized by "rushes 11 and "retreats ... Overall, the potential for a growing mineral extraction industry is bright, based on rising world pri- ces and the uncertainties and risks inherent in reliance on foreign supplies. Geologically, Alaska's potential is enormous; economically, however, constraints exist which will require substantial investment to overcome. The primary hard minerals mined in Alaska are gold, sand and gra- vel, coal, stone, and tin. Also mined are small quantities of copper, silver, lead, gemstones, molybdenum, and barite. The value of all non-petroleum minerals in 1979 was roughly $170 million. This component of the mining industry is different in that most output is consumed in Alaska. Tab 1 e 32 indicates that the va 1 ue of sand and gravel production is second only to petroleum. This 146 commodity has been used almost exclusively for local construc- tion. Similarly coal, until quite recently, was used entirely for local energy production. The hard mineral industry is characterized by few large scale operations and numerous small ones. Mining employment plays an important role in rural Alaska. Most mining activity in Alaska occurs in the Yukon region, Cook Inlet/Mat-Su area, and on the Seward Peninsula, in that order. Based on output, the Yukon region leads, followed by Kuskokwim, Seward Peninsula, and then Cook Inlet/Mat-Su area. The mining industry in Alaska is constrained by several major fac- tors. Access to areas of mineral potential are restricted by ownership and/or land status. Access and development is also dif- ficult due to lack of surface transportation routes. Each of these factors as well as Alaska•s climate, topography, and loca- tion relative to other markets contribute to the high cost of mineral exploration and extraction. In addition environmental regulations add to the costs associ a ted with de vel oping mineral resources. In general, with the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act, which resolved the status of the D-2 1 ands, and continued high prices for various minerals, Alaska will likely experience a boom of sorts in the near future. Alaska •s extensive coal depo- sits may encourage development of an export industry at some point. Currently, there is only one operating coal mine which is near Healy and supplies coal for the generation of heat and electricity for the Fairbanks area. Supplies recoyerable with current coal technology, are estimated to exceed 100 billion tons. Substantial deposits are also located in the Beluga coal fields near Cook Inlet. 147 3.6.1.3 -Construction Apart from the seafood industry, the construction industry is the most seasonal industry in Alaska. As elsewhere it is also a highly cyclical industry depending upon general economic conditions. More importantly, the industry in Alaska is extremely dependent upon impetus in the form of major projects, usually related to natural resource and energy deve- 1 opments. Construction is both a basic and non-basic industry in that it is determined in part by demand generated externally and in part by inter- nally generated demand. Table 34 presents the trends in construction activity during the 1974 -1979 period for the major urban areas. The impact of the Trans-Alaska pipeline is apparent in both residential and non-residential categories. Dramatic increases occurred in Anchorage and Fairbanks beginning in 1975. However, in both Anchorage and Fairbanks 1979 permit valuation is actually lnwer than in 1974. These figures accurately reflect the boom/bust cycle created by the pipeline construction. The construction industry appears on the verge of rebound. Numerous public projects are being spawned by the wealth accruing to the state government. These projects include highway, airport, harbor, school, public works, and cultural facilities throughout the state. Coupled with planned major private sector projects, primarily relating to oil and gas, a new wave of construction activity appears likely. 3.6.1.4 -Manufacturing The manufacturing industry in Alaska consists of two major components; food processing (mainly seafood) and forest products. These two com- ponents accounted for 72 percent of average manufacturing employment in 1979. Each of these are discussed below, although seafood processing is subsumed under the general category 11 Fishing 11 • 148 TABLE 34 VALUATION OF RESIDENTIAL, NONRESIDENTIAL AND TOTAL BUILDING INCLUDED IN BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED IN SELECTED AREAS OF ALASKA: 1974 · 1979 (in thousands of dollars) Annual 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Anchorage: Residential ......... $ 88,171.3 $125,022.5 $101,094.0 $156,852.5 $145,691.5 $ 73,565.8 Nonresidential ...... 72,467.3 117,744.5 117,269.7 204,299.6 69,435.7 45,190.6 ---·-------- Total. .......... $160,638.6 $242,767.0 $218,363.7 $361,152.1 $215,127.3 $118,756.4 Fairbanks: Residential ......... $ 20,515.0 $ 44,043.4 $ 44,624.8 $ 52,279.9 $ 33,139.7 $ 22,800.1 Nonresidential ...... 26,293.8 93,734.0 94,336.7 31,379.4 17,448.2 17,356.7 ...... --------· ------------- ..j::> Total. .......... $ 46,808.8 $137,777.4 $138,961.5 $ 83,659.3 $50,587.9 $ 40,156.8 "' Juneau: Residential ......•.. $ 4,330.3 $ 7,468.4 $ 15,311.9 $ 22,293.1 $ 18,066.3 $ 17,774.4 Nonresidential ...... 10,818.3 3,469.9 7,834.2 8,261.2 13,019.4 15,622.3 ---------------------------------------- Total •.......... $ 15,148.6 $ 10,938.3 $ 23,146.1 $ 30,554.3 $ 31,085.7 $ 33,396.7 Total All Areas: Residential ......... $113,016.6 $176,534.3 $161,030.7 $231,425.5 $196,897.5 $114,140.3 Nonresidential ...... 109,579.4 214,948.4 219,440.6 243,940.2 99,903.3 78,169.6 -·----~ -----~---------------------- Total. , .•....... $222,596.0 $391,482.7 $380,471.3 $475,365.7 $296,800.9 $192,309.9 Source: City and Borough Building Officials. From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AK. p. G-1. 3.6.1.4.1 -Seafood Processing Since the passage of the Fishing Conservation and Management Act of 1976 commonly referred to as the 11 200-mile limit .. , the Alaskan fishing industry has been in a state of flux. Fortunately, the overall impact from the law has been quite favorable to the industry. The trend in terms of both volume and value of the catch has been steadily increasing. Tables 35 and 36 show this trend for both domestic and foreign fisheries. Underlying these figures is a transferring of catch in high valued species such as salmon and crab from the foreign to the domestic fleet. The fishing effort of the foreign fleet has adjusted to this by targeting other species such as groundfish. Regardless of who catches the product, practically all of it is exported out of the state, principally to Japan. The domestic industry is characterized ty numerous private par- ticipants in the harvesting sector and relatively fewer processing companies with large domestic and foreign corporate involvement. Different species are concentrated upon in different regions of Alaska. The processing industry employs close to 15,000 during the height of the season in July. Average monthly employment was about 7,000 during 1979. Opportunities for growth in the industry exist in fisheries for groundfish and other underutilized species. It has been estimated that only eight percent of the total allowable domestic catch is being utilized. However, major economic problems impede develop- ment, including transportation costs, high input costs, and low margins. 150 ..... c.n ...... TABLE 35 DOMESTIC FISHERIES OF ALASKA Catch Landed in Alaska, Payments to Fishermen, and Wholesale (Processed) Value SALMON OTHER FIN FISH SHELLFISH GRAND TOTALS Catch (000 000 lbs) •.•...... Payments to Fishermen ($000 000) ............ . Wholesale Value ($000 000) ............ . Catch (000 000 lbs) ........ . Payments to Fishermen {$000 000) ............ . Wholesale Value ($000 000) ............ . Catch (000 000 lbs) ........ . Payments to Fishermen ($000 000) ............ . Wholesale Value ($000 000) ............ . Catch 1000 000 lbs). ....... . Payments to Fishermen ($000 000) ............ . Wholesale Value ($000 000) ............ . WHOLESALE VALUE INDEX (Dollar Value in 1974"' 1.00) ............... . REAL VALUE INDEX (Wholesale Dollar Value Adjusted by Changes in U.S. Consumer Price Index: 1974 = 1.00) ................. . P Preliminary. 1974 132 66 137 60 16 22 272 66 95 464 148 254 1.00 1.00 1975 140 56 134 58 19 27 247 55 132 445 130 293 1.15 1.06 1976 246 118 245 54 24 29 317 97 179 617 240 452 1.78 1.54 1917 307 171 380p 45 21 27p 312 157 316p 664 349 723p 2.85 2.32 1978 408p 238p 528p 64p 33p 43p 334p 272p 547p so6P 543p 1,118p 4.40 3.33 SOURCE: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, National Marine Fisheries Service, and Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. 1979 459p 317p 704p 89p 58p 75p 341p 231p 464p 889p 606P 1,243p 4.89 3.32 FroM: .\lu.ska · ~rartmcnt of Commerce and Economic Dcvclorr.1cnt, Division of Economic [nt~r!lrise. June 19~0. The Alaska Statistical R0vi~w. 198~. Juneau, AK. p. B-1 6 . ...... Ul N TABLE 36 CATCH & VALUE FROM ALASKA'S DOMESTIC & FOREIGN FISHERIES 1977 1978 1979 CATCH LANDED IN ALASKA (DOMESTIC FISHERIES CATCH)1 soaP BB9p Catch (000 000 lbs) ..................... 664 Ex Vessel Values ($000 000) ............... 349p 543p 606p Wholesale Values ($000 000) ............... 723 1,118p 1,243p FOREIGN CATCH FROM ALASKA Fcz2 p Catch (000 000 lbs) ...•................. 3,033 3,457 3,177p Ex Vessel Values ($000 0()())3 .............. 17Bp 352 330 Wholesale Values ($000 000)4 .............. 979 1,936p 1,815p All FISHERIES COMBINED p p Catch (000 000 lbs) ..................... 3,697 4,263p 4,066p Ex Vessel Values ($000 000) ............... 527 895 936 Wholesale Values ($000 000) ............... 1,702p 3,054p 3,058p P Preliminary. 1/ The domestic catch (fish caught by U.S. citizens) very nearly coincides with amounts landed and processed in Alaska. 2/ FCZ = U.S. Fishery Conservation Zone (Area between 3 and 200 miles from shore). 3/ Ex Vessel values indicated for foreign catch are pounds of fish, per specie, multiplied by prices paid to fishermen in U.S. ports. 4/ Wholesale values for foreign catch are estimates of what the values would have been if these fish had been landed by U.S. fishermen. SOURCE: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, National Marine Fisheries Service, and Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AK p. B-16. 3.6.1.4.2 -Forest Products The Alaskan forest products industry centers around the resources of two national forests, the Chugach in Southcentral Alaska and the Tongass in Southeastern Alaska. These two forests are the largest in the United States and account for roughly 93 percent of the annual Alaskan timber harvest. Table 37 presents the histori- cal timber harvest from public lands by ownership. From the table it can be seen that the Tongass National Forest accounts for about 90 percent of the Alaskan timber harvest. The industry is con- centrated in the Southeast, and the principal products of the industry are pulp, cant lumber (cut on at least two sides), and round logs. Over 50 percent of Alaska • s forest products are exported to foreign countries, principally Japan. Most of the remainder is shipped to the Lower-48. The transfer of lands to native corpDrations is expected to increase the availability of timber resources, especially round logs. In general, the industry is quite cyclical depending upon housing construction patterns in the United States and abroad. 3.6.1.5 -Agriculture Agriculture represents an emerging industry in Alaska. The USDA•s Soil Conservation Service identified approximately 19 million acres of tillable land climatologically suitable for growing crops. Of this area, only 20,000 acres are currently cultivated. The Matanuska-Susitna area is the major agricultural region in the state both in terms of value of production and acres under cultivation. Figure 15 and Table 38 list the value of production by area for the years 1977-1979. Based on these figures the Matanuska Valley accounts for 69 percent of Alaska crop production, 76 percent of livestock and poultry production, and 72 percent of combined total agriculture pro- duction. 153 TABLE 37 Alaska Timber Harvest (in thousand board feet, Scribner scale) on Public Lands, By Ownership, 1959·1979 Bureau of Land Management National Forest Bureau of Year State Indian Affairs Free Use Cut Total Tongass Chugach Total Total 1959 0 0 2,499 8,666 11,165 266,591 7,596 274,187 285,352 1960 210 0 1,588 14,289 15,877 347,496 3,613 351,109 367,196 ..... 1961 1,987 0 4,683 11,342 16,025 338,206 7,117 345,323 363,335 (J1 1962 6,872 0 8,049 5,936 13,985 366,275 7,157 373,432 394,289 ~ 1963 10,633 0 7,535 3,620 11,155 395,143 3,847 398,990 420,778 1964 18.144 0 5,524 5,666 11,190 443,736 1,373 445,109 474,443 1965 24,161 2,990 5,045 3,263 8,308 397,610 6,888 404,498 439,957 1966 31,220 1,650 5,349 848 6,197 474,277 1,217 475,494 514,561 1967 45,816 9,067 2,587 572 3,159 474,337 2,479 476,816 534,858 1968 47,974 8,192 612 491 1,103 529,496 3,807 533,303 590,572 1969 49,018 8,684 79 280 359 519,344 3,997 523,341 581,402 1970 53,568 12,855 81 493 574 560,081 895 560,976 627,973 1971 43,190 1,870 113 346 459 527,740 1,680 529,420 574,939 1972 50,591 5,070 17 28 45 547,500 3,021 550,521 606,227 1973 35,356 28,795 11 145 156 588,491 3,109 591,600 655,907 1974 51,241 12,083 39 114 153 544,025 5,608 549,633 613,110 1975 33,540 52 50 930 980 408,371 4,683 413,054 447,626 1976 41,714 1,011 844 295 1,139 462,776 9,402 472,178 516,042 1977 60,251 7,835 325 29 354 NA NA 455,700 524,140 1978 30,301 1,799 1,862 149 2,011 398,701 9,873 408,574 442,685 1979 32,381 480 159 121 280 NA NA 459,507 492,648 Source: Respective agencies. For the Bureau of Land Management, the 1979 figures are for the fiscal year ended September 30. For the Bureau of Indian Affairs, figures for 1977, 1978, and 1979 are for the fiscal years ended September 30. Other figures are for the calendar years. From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AI<. p.B-8. FIGURE 15 -TABLE 38 DOLLAR VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION By Agricultural Area Matanuska Valley 71% % of Total Crops 1979 Tanana Valley Crops Livestock & Poultry % of State Total Matanuska Vallez Crops Livestock & Poultry % of State Total Kenai Peninsula Crops Livestock & Poultry % of State Total Southeao;t Crops Livestock & Poultry 7. of State Total Southwest Crops Livestock & Poultry 7. of State Total State Total Crvps Livestock & Poultry % of State Total * Less than one half of Alaska 1977-1979 1977 ~1,602,300 1,109,500 492,800 16% $7,303,900 3,883,500 3,420,400 757. $ 6~1.200 499,000 102,200 67. $ 12,200 0 12,200 * $ 269,400 14,000 255,400 3% $9,789,000 5, 506,000 4,283,000 100% 1%. Matanuska 80% i. of Total Livestock 1979 1978 1979 $1,871,900 $1,724,500 1,404,500 1,269,000 467,400 455,500 20% 19% $6,570,000 $6,541,900 3,433,500 3,491,000 3,136,500 3,050,900 71% 727. $ 492,900 $ 466,600 377,000 386,000 115,900 180,600 6% 5% $ 16,500 $ 21,600 0 0 16,500 21,600 * * $ 297,700 $ 314,400 14,000 22,000 283,700 292,400 3% 4% $9,249,000 $9,069,000 5,229,000 5,068,000 4,020,000 4,001,000 100% 100% Peninsula 2% Source: Compiled by the Community Information Center from Alaska Agricultural Statistics, Alaska Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. From: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center. Winter 1980, Vol. III, No.4. Community Research Quarterly, A Socioeconomic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 45. 155 The Tanana Valley, or Big Delta region, is the second most important area. It accounts for 25 percent of the state • s crop production, 11 percent of its livestock and poulty production, and 19 percent of all agricultural production. Based on the 1978 U.S. Census of Agriculture, there were 383 farms in the state of which 184 were in the Anchorage/Mat-Su area, 75 in the Kenai/Cook Inlet region, 90 in the Fairbanks/Tanana region, 24 in the Aleutian Islands, and 10 in the Angoon/Juneau region. Figure 16 and Table 39 list the number of acres cultivated by crop and area. The Matanuska Valley accounts for 54.3 percent of all cropland in Alaska. The Tanana Valley constitutes 37.5 percent of such land.· Except for barley and rapeseed, the Matanuska Valley produces more of every crop. It also produces more milk, eggs, pork, and beef. (See Table 40). The 1978 Census of Agriculture reported over 95 percent of the state • s dairy products were sold in the Anchorage/Mat-Su area and that 82 percent of the state's milk cows were located in this area. Alaska's agriculture industry may have great potential but it faces several hurdles before the potential can be realized. Alaska imports most of its food. Even with the high costs of transporting food from the Lower-48, most imported products can still be sold for less than Alaskan products. The reasons for this can be attributed to high input costs (labor, capital, and supplies) and the inability to realize eco- nomies of scale due to the relative size of the Alaskan market. 3.6.1.6 -Tourism Tourism is not an industry in itself, but is usually d.escribed and analyzed in terms of those sectors affected by travel expen- ditures. Tourism mainly affects the support and service sectors of the economy, although the resources upon which it is based are primarily the natural resources of Alaska. In some ways, tourism 156 FIGURE 16 -TABLE 39 CROPLAND UTILIZATION By Agricultural Area Alaska . 1979 ~..:;o.-.::::::::;:==:=::;;.sout hwes t Valley 1% 54% Feed Crops 64% 1. of State's Planted Area Tanana Valley Planted Area Source: From: Planted Area (in acres) Commercial Vegetables Potatoes Lettuce Cabbage Carrots Other Vegetables Feed Crops All Oats All Barley Grain Mixtures Grassland Harvested Grass % of Total Planted Area Harvested Area (in acres) Commercial Vegetables Potatoes Lettuce Cabbage Carrots Other Vegetables Feed Crops Oats Barley Grain Mixtures Grass % of Total Harvested Area .Tanana Matanuska Kenai Vallev Valley Peninsula Southwest 7! 671 171 120 17 8 6 20 4,900 400 4,400 ioo 2,600 2,600 38% 152 110 13 7 5 17 7,230 350 4,180 100 2,600 11,091 541 340 93 25 22 61 2,950 500 2,050 400 7,600 7,600 54% 10,928 508 330 77 23 20 58 10,420 ~ . 1, 970 400 7,600 55% 20 20 0 0 0 0 350 300 50 0 1,100 1,100 7% 20 20 0 0 0 0 1,450 300 50 0 1,100 n.: 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 0 0 200 State !£!.!.!_ 20,432 732 480 110 33 28 81 8,200 1,200 6,500 500 11,500 11,500 100% 19,980 680 460 90 30 25 75 19,300 1,100 6,200 500 11,500 Compiled by the Community Information Center from Alaska Agricultural Statistics, Alaska Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center. Winter 1980, Vol. III, No. 4. Community Res&arch Quarterly, A Socioeconoic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 46. 157 TABLE 40 LIVESTOCK ON FARMS By Agricultural Area Alaska 1979-1980 !anana Valley Matanuska Valley Kenai Peninsula ~ (January 1, 1980) 370 2,330 560 Steers 36 60 To Bulls 20 so 40 Calves 50 S70 180 Beef Cow& that. have Calved 150 100 200 Milk Cows that have Calved 40 1,020 30 Beef Replacement Heifers 50 60 80 Dairy Replacement Heifers 20 470 10 % of State T-otal 47. 287. n Hogs (December 1, 1979) 570 430 30 % of State Total 52% 397. TI Southwest 5,140 290 1,190 1,100 1,950 10 500 0 on 10 u State Total 8,400 400 1,300 1,900 2,400 1,100 BOO 500 100;; 1,100* 1007.* Chickens (December 1, 1979) 900 23,200 400 100 25,000** % of State Total 37. v. 937. ......... .. ... .... Total includes 60 hogs (5% of state total) raised in the Southeast • Total includes 400 chickens {2% of state total} raised in the Southeast . Less than one half of 17.. 1007.** Source: Compiled by the Community Information Center from Alaska Agricultural Statistics, Alaska Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. From: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Cornuni ty Research Center. L~inter 1980. Vol. III, No.4. Community Research Quarterly, A Socioeconomic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 44. 158 represents a 11 basic component.. of the Alaskan economy in that there is externally generated demand for Alaskan products and ser- vices. The most recent detailed studies of the Alaska visitor industry were performed during the 1975 -1977 period. The following information is extracted from these reports which were prepared for the Division of Economic Enterprise of the Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. During the winter and summer (1976 -1977) 505,189 individuals were projected to have visited Alaska. Table 41 summarizes the reasons given for visiting Alaska and estimated expenditures for the winter, summer, and combined periods. Not surprisingly, the table illustrates the seasonal nature of visitor trips to Alaska, especially regarding pleasure trips. On the other hand, it is interesting . to note that fewer business· trips are made in the summer than in the winter, the reasons for which are unclear. Visitor expenditures by type are presented in Table 42 on a per capita basis and as a percentage of all visitor expenditures. Cities and areas visited are presented in Table 43. Anchorage by far, receives more visitors than any other city in Alaska. This points to the fact that Anchorage is the business center of Alaska as well as the 11 gateway 11 to the state. Table 44 presents infor- mation concerning visitor-related firms' sales. The table shows the substantial contribution made to the Alaskan economy by the visitor-related industry. The numbers presented are for 1975 and therefore are probably somewhat low. Tourism is a growth 11 industry 11 in Alaska. However, the importance of the tourism industry to the Alaskan economy is probably less now than before due to dramatic growth in other sectors. Nonetheless, tourism is an important component of the economy of various areas. 159 ..... 0\ 0 TABLE 41 Winter 1976-1977 -~---Gyrnm•~<J77 ___ Combined Winter; Summer Purpose of Total Number Per Capita Total Dollar Toted Nurnh"r l'•'r ,·apita Tot a I Doll ilr Total ~.;urrdH~r P·~r ( · apit•l Totul ))r)llilr TriQ of Visitors ExQenditurc Projections _Qf~!i_~,_I!f!L'i_ . L?U:J c n! l_i_tu w _!i()[CCti,1n:; _ _Ql_'{!2!!ors £xpe ndi ture _f_rr)jeq_Ems (000) (llOO) (Or) I)) Pleasure only 56,579 s 432, 24,442. I ?21,476 :~ ?fif), 16ll, 321. R 278,055 s 69 3. Sl!J2,7fi3,'J Mostly pleasure/ some business 10,082 5 I 3, 5,172.1 16,049 74 I. I I , fl'J 2. 3 26, 131 653. 17, Oli·1, ·1 Half pleasure/half business 11,925 583. 6,952.3 16,049 67 :,, lU,H33, I 27,974 630, 17,7H'l,4 Mostly business/some pleasure 30,894 1004. 3t,rll7.6 25,67H 938. 24,0RG,O 56,572 974. 55,1()3,6 Business only 74,548 792. 59,042.0 41 • 72 7 7F,4, 3l,H79.4 116,275 782. 90,921.4 Source: State of Alaska, Division of Economic Enterprise, Department of Commerce and Economic Development. Visitor Census & Expenditure Survey, Summer 1977. March 1978; p. 12. TABLE 42 VISITOR EXPENDITURES Winter Total Summer Total Share Of Share Of Per Capita All Visitors Per Capita All Visitors Expenditures Expenditures Expend! ture s Expenditures ...§_ ~ 2_ % Transeortation to and from Alaska 331. ll 177. li Air 299. 45 131. 22 Ship 9. 1 25. 4 Automobile 22. 3 lB. 3 Bus 1. * 1. * Railroad 2. * Organized tours B. 1 266. 45 Food/meals 70. 10 35. 6 Lodging 83. 13 27. 5 Retail purchases 53. 8 27. 5 Entertainment/recreation 49. 7 lB. 3 Auto expense (within the State) 35. 5 14. 2 Other transportation (within the State) 15. 2 13. 2 Miscellaneous/ other 20. 3 12. 2 TOTALS $664. 100% $589. 100% *Less than o. 5% Source: State of Alaska, Division of Economic Enterprise, Department of Commerce and Economic Development. Visitor Census & Expenditure Survey, Summer 1977. March 1978; p. 43. 161 TABLE 43 CITIESLAREAS VISITED Winter Summer Total* Total June l!ili::. August Sept. % % % % ~ % --Anchorage 76 68 65 67 66 76 Fairbanks 23 41 41 51 39 34 Juneau 15 38 46 36 .39 27 Ketchikan 10 29 41 22 29 24 Kenai 8 12 11 14 13 11 Sitka 7 21 25 23 23 9 Soldotna 6 9 9 9 9 8 Mt. McKinley Nat'l. Park 6 34 36 41 34 26 Haines 4 9 -13 5 12 6 Valdez 4 6 6 6 6 7 Kodiak 4 2 2 2 3 3 Homer /Seldovia 3 5 5 6 5 5 Prudhoe Bay 3 2 1 2 2 3 Nome 3 8 9 9 8 8 Skagway 2 33 43 33 30 26 Glacier Bay 2 25 29 27 23 20 Kotzebue 2 9 9 9 9 8 Seward 2 4 4 5 4 4 Barrow 2 3 3 4 3 2 * Columns refer to percentage of total visitors in the time period who visited that city. Figures include multiple city visits. Source: State of Alaska, Division of Economic Enteprise, D~partment of Commerce and Economic Development. Visitor Census· & Expenditure Survey, Summer 1977. Harch 1978, p. 19. 162 TABLE 44 TOTAL SALES OF VISITOR INDUSTRY FIRMS IN ALASKA AND TOTAL SALLES TO VISITORS Hotels, motels and lodges Gift, souvenir and jewelry shops Travel agencies Air taxis and air' charters Bus Co. (tour and airport) Railroads Tour wholesalers and operators Restaurants Guides Car rentals Hunting and fishing camps Boat charters Airlines Cruise ships General stores Marine Highway System Department of Fish & Game* Other TOTALS * To non-residents for the year 1975 Total Sales $ 92,233,498 128,377,694 24,298,150 39,169,272 3,800,656 48,055,908 505,509 39,178,071 2,489,825 5,223,382 666,550 975,430 187,677,308 169,060 14,666,640 15,164,782 1,682,711 5,450,604 $609,785,050 Sales to Visitors $ 54,606,135 2,626,480 963,250 8,438,536 3,545,339 1,561,596 505,509 10,953,684 2,405,490 3,760,835 595,850 864,290 38,173,643 169,060 1,395,147 7,885,687 1,682,711 431,454 $140,564,696 % Sales to Visitors 59.2% 2.0 4.0 21.5 93-3 3.2 100.0 28.0 96.6 82.0 89.4 88.6 20.3 100.0 9.5 52.0 100.0 7-9 23.1% Source: State of Alaska, Division of Economic Enterprise, Department of Commerce and Economic Development. Impact of Visitor Expenditures upon Alaska's Economy, For the Year 1975. February 1978; p. 23. 163 3.6.1.7 -Service and Support Components This sector of the Alaskan economy has experienced substantial growth and diversification in the past decade. The growth in this sector is in part attributable to the demand created by expansion of the basic sector of the economy, and in part by the maturation process of the Alaskan economy in general. The growth in the non-basic sector paral1els the general trend of the nation, yet reflects as well the fact that Alaska has passed the threshold level of economic activity at which substantial demand for goods and services is generated locally or internally. Table 45 shows employment growth rates for selected industries over various periods. The total support group has consistently grown faster than that of the total economy. Dramatic growth has occurred in many. of the more service oriented categories, i.e., finance, insurance, real estate, and services. Growth in wholesale trade reflects the demand for goods and services generated from other sector activity which is being met by local Alaskan firms. The figures shown in Table 45 tend to mask the effects of the post- pipeline economic slowdown. Recent employment figures however, indi- cate some contractions in many categories occurred. This trend is apparent upon visual inspection of many of the communities in the railbelt area, especially in the Anchorage Mat-Su and Fairbanks areas. Numerous vacant stores and half completed developments are scattered throughout these areas. The dip in economic activity after the pipeline boom is an expected occurence. More surprising is the apparent resilience of .certain sec- tors or industries. The slowdown as recorded by employment figures did not occur until several years after the pipeline construction period ended. Reasons for this are indeterminate and may be related to econo- mic behavior or perhaps measurement techniques. Nonetheless the overall trend is for continued expansion of the non-basic sector. 164 TABLE 4o EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ANNUAL AVERAGE RATES SELECTED ALASKA INDUSTRIES (Percent) 1960 1964 1969 1973 to to to to 1963 1969 1973 1978 Wholesale Trade 3.6 11.4 3.9 11.7 Retail Trade 3.6 9. 1 7.8 8.6 Services 4.4 8.8 g., 7 12.5 Transportation -3.6 6.9 1.7 9.3 Communications 11.3 -0.7 11.0 7. 1 Public Utilities 12.0 5.6 14.7 5.0 Finance Ins., Real Estate 8.1 6. 1 12.4 14.2 Total Support 3.3 7.9 7.6 11.0 Total Nonagricultural 1.1 5.8 6. 1 8.0 Note: Prior to 1964, only jobs covered by unemployment insurance were included in the reported data. Thus, the pre-1964 period is not strictly comparable with the period beginning in 1964. Source: Compiled from data in 11 Statistical Quarterly,11 (Alaska Department of Labor). From State of Alaska, Division of Economic Enterprise, Department of Commerce and Economic Development. The Performance Report of the Alaska Economy in 1979. Vol. Eight. p. 25. 165 Another emerging characteristic of these sectors is seasonal variation. The trend is discernible comparing the ratio of first quarter employment to third quarter employment. Table 46 presents this series. Only the services and public utilities sections did not show decreasing seasonality. Brief discussions of most service and support industries are presented below. These categories are also treated in Subsection 3.7. 3.6.1.7.1 -Wholesale Trade According to the 1977 Industry Census, there were 649 firms engaged in wholesale trade in Alaska with sales of $1.563 billion. The largest component of sales was petroleum and related products constituting $532 million or 34.1 percent of total wholesale sales. Groceries and related products accounted for $270 mill ion or 17.3% of the total. Machinery equipm~nt and supplies accounted for $262 million or 16.8 percent of the total. Wholesale trade could be considered non-basic now because with recent rapid population growth, especially in the Anchorage area, and the expansion of the oil and gas industry, it has become cost- effective for local, as opposed to Seattle-based wholesalers, to serve the growing local retail trade. 3.6.1.7.2 -Retail Trade According to the 1977 Industry Census, there were 3, 781 retai 1 establishments in Alaska with sales of $1.831 billion. Grocery stores accounted for the largest share of sales, $410 or 22.4 per- cent. Eating and drinking establishments accounted for $254 million or 13.9 percent of total retail sales. Automotive dealers accounted for $241 mill ion or 13.2 percent of the total, and general merchandise stores had $227 million or 12.4 percent. 166 TABLE 46 STATE OF ALASKA INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT SEASONALITY, SELECTED INDUSTRIES* 1960 1970 Trade .826 .869 Services .770 .937 Transportation .784 .854 Communications .876 .899 Public Utilities .835 .885 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate .888 .793 Total Support .810 .881 1978 .899 .874 .871 .939 .847 1.012 .898 * Ratio of-January, February and March nonagricultural employment to July, August and September nonagricultural employment. Source: Compiled from data published by the Alaska Department of Labor in the "Statistical Quarterly." From State of Alaska, Division of Economic Enterprise, Department of Commerce and Economic Development. The Performance Report of the Alaska Economy in 1979. Vol. Eight. p.26. 167 Retail trade has grown as a function of other local changes which reflect expansion of demand in the state. Economies of scale resulting from a larger market apparently have assisted develop- ment of retail outlets. 3.6.1.7.3 -Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Recent trends and activity in this sector of the economy in Alaska are comparable to what has occurred in the U.S. in general. High, widely fluctuating interest rates and restricted credit have created an air of uncertainty and business caution. Consequen- tially, lending activity has slacked off. This impact is pre- sented in Table 47 which shows combined indicators for financial institutions. A noteworthy distinction between Alaska and most of the U.S. in general is that the state can offset the restrictive policies of the Federal Reserve Board by depositing large funds in state financial institutions. Thus the outlook and financial cli- mate may be more favorable in Alaska than elsewhere. Real estate activity in Alaska has ridden a seesaw over the past decade corresponding to the boom/bust cycle of the pipeline pro- ject. In addition recent record high interest rates have limited existing activity. Excess capacity, mainly in retail space and housing stocks left over from the pipeline period is slowly being filled. This has been the case in Anchorage and Fairbanks espe- cially. Certain communities have fared better than the state in general. Demand for commercial office, industrial, and warehouse space fared better, than non-commercial real estate but has been relatively flat since the pipeline period. Table 48 shows housing permits issued in various cities. The table shows a slowdown beginning in 1978. It also shows clearly the fact that Anchorage accounts for roughly ha 1f of all home construction activity. 168 TABLE 47 COMBINED INDICATORS FOR BANKING, SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS, FEDERAL CREDIT UNIONS, AND SMALL LOAN LICENSEE ACTIVITY: 1976-1979 (in millions of dollars) End Total Combined Combined of Number of Value of Total Year Institutions All Loans Assets 1976 65 $ 1,455 $ 2,357 1977 64 1.784 2,674 1978 60 1,935 2,912 1979 60 1,833 3,013 Source: Divisioi of Banking, Securities, Small Loans and Corporations, and the Division of Economic Enterprise, Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. From State of Alaska, Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. Alaska Statistical Review and General Information. June 1980~ p. L-1. 169 Year 1970 1971 1972 ....... 1973 ....... 0 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Source: From: TABLE 48 TOTAL NUMBER OF FAMILY DWELLING UNITS INCLUDED IN BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED IN SELECTED URBAN AREAS OF ALASKA, 1970 -1979 Anchorage Fairbanks Homer Kenai Palmer Seldovia Seward Soldotna Valdez Total 3,000 444 6 17 19 1 8 11 3,507 3,050 348 12 23 15 3 8 4 0 3,463 2,951 439 11 22 9 1 39 16 6 3,494 2,086 446 17 13 2 8 1 11 6 2,590 2,822 594 35 25 7 7 4 37 161 3,692 4,010 1 ,051 13 100 8 5 3 87 85 5,362 3,938 998 60 161 72 13 11 138 39 5,430 4,877 1 ,561 117 267 75 8 39 177 33 7 t 154 3,289 806 92 160 125 9 36 69 14 4,600 1,469 431 130 47 68 22 50 40 29 2,286 City and Borough building officials, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AK. pp. G-2, G-3. Activity in the insurance industry usually follows the general trend set by other sectors. Table 49 shows the value of total insurance premiums written from 1959-1979. Since 1966, the total value has steadily increased. This reflects the general economic growth occurring in Alaska over the time period, and also the effects of inflation on the industry. Adjusted for increases due to inflation the total would show a downward trend from 1977-1979. 3.6.1.7.4 -Services The services industry has experienced significant growth over the past decade as measured by employment figures, (See Subsection 3. 7). As is the case for the United States, the service industry is characterized by numerous small establishments. This category includes such professional services as doctors, lawyers, accoun- tants, and economists. Due to the expanding economy this group is experiencing substantial growth. The-industry serves almost exclusively locally generated demand. 3.6.1.8-Government The role of the public sector has been an important one throughout A 1 ask a • s hi story. The trend over the past decade has been one of a declining share for government bodies in terms of total wages paid especially during the pipeline period. This has been the result of significant expansion in the private sectors of the economy. Nonetheless, government in Alaska accounted for 41 percent of all jobs, and the Federal government including military personnel remains the single largest employer in the state. Table 50 presents data for total wages paid for the government sectors and shows governmen~ wages as a percentage of total wages paid in the state. The most striking trend is the growth in the state and local component. Also noteworthy is the relatively small increase in military wages. This is due to the fact that military employment has consistently decreased over the past 171 TABLE 49 ALASKA INSURANCE BUSINESS Total Insurance Premiums Written: 1959-1979 (in millions of dollars) Year 1959 .....•.......••.••........• 1960 ..•....••••....•..•.•.•.... 1961 .••..••.•.....••.......•.•. 1962 ..•..••.•.•••••.•......•..• 1963 .......................... .. 1964 .....••.....•••...........• 1965 ..•........................ 1966 ..•.........•.............. 1967 .....•...........•......... 1968 ..•..•.•................... 1969 .......................... . 1970 ..•.•.•...•...•.•.... ~ .... . 1971 ......•......•............. 1972 ..•.•..•.•....•............ 1973 ..........•..•............. 1974 ......•...••..•............ 1975 ..•.•••....•.••............ 1976 .....•.•.....•............. 1977 ...• ~ ..................... . 1978 .•.....••..•.•...••...•.... 1979 ...•.........•........•.... Total Insurance $ 30.0 34.2 36.9 40.1 42.9 74.6 58.6 64.7 70.2 79.8 93.9 113.2 131.5 146.0 155.8 189.6 206.2 356.5 452.5 473.7 488.7 Source: Alaska Depanment of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Insurance. From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AK. p. M-1. 172 ...... "'-J w TABLE 50 Alaska Public Sector Wages* Compared to All Wages Received in Selected Years (in Millions of Oollars) 1960 1965 1970 1975 1976 Total Wages $586 $772 $1251 $2R60 $:l294 Government 287 376 594 973 1054 Federal Civilian 108 138 195 295 318 Federal Military 138 144 226 261 26R State and Local 42 94 173 417 467 Government Wages as Percentage of Total Alaska 49.0 48.7 47.5 34.0 32.0 u.s. 14.8 16.0 18.3 19.2 J!).O *Total Labor and Proprietor's Income by Place of Residence -BEA Personal Income Series. Source: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. July 1978. Jobs and Power for Alaskans, A Program for Power and Economic Development. Juneau, AK. p. 33. decade, although total wa':}es paid has generally increased. Table 51 presents government expenditures broken down by federal, state, and 1 ocal components. In 1979 the federal government spent about $1.5 billion in Alaska. The state spent nearly one billion, and local governments spent an estimated $662 mi 11 ion. Total government expen- ditures in Alaska are estimated at over $3 billion. Federal government spending and employment should be considered a basic component because it is exogenously determined for the most part. State and local government, on the other hand, should be considered non-basic. Growth in this sector is largely attributable to the increases in state reve- nues and expenditures. Eventually its growth will be constrained by demands for services of Alaska residents and Alaska•s overall popula- tion growth rate. Table 52 breaks down state government expenditures by function i ncl udi ng amounts awarded to local governments. Table 53 presents revenues by source for the state government. These figures only go up to 1979 and therefore do not show the fact that the income tax was abo- lished in ·1980. In addition, revenues from oil and gas taxes have risen substantially. Table 54 presents similar information for local governments. 3.6.2 -Regional Economic Bases This section will briefly describe the major components of the economic base for the areas included in Study Areas #2 and #3. These areas include: Anchorage; the Kenai Peninsula, including Seward; Fairbanks and Southeast Fairbanks; Matanuska-Susitna Borough; and the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division. 174 ....... . ..... C.11 FEDERAL OBLIGATIONS Fiscal Year Total Minus Ending State-Local June 30 Total Govt Grants 1973 1,011 807 1974 1,107 887 1975 1,279 1,021 197S 1,358 1,050 1977 1,501 1,190 1978 1,701 1,35S 1979 1,887 1,506E TABLE 51 TOTAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OBLIGATIONS IN ALASKAa PLUS STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT GENERAL EXPENDITURESb AND NET DOLLAR EXCHANGES AMONG LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars) STATE OF ALASKA GENERAL EXPENDITURES __ ___.. ____ --.. ---. --------------·- By Source of Funds By Type of Expenditure LOCAL GOVT GENERAL EXPENDITURES From Awarded From From Own Federal Direct to Local Own From Federal Total Sources Funds Expenditures Govt Units Total Sources State Govt S22 433 189 499 123 28S 148 123 15 SS2 474 188 519 143 324 149 143 32 78S 552 234 S19 1S7 3SO 1S9 1S7 24 956 S75 281 750 20S 42S 193 206 27 1,029 75S 273 794 234 539 267 234 38 1,157 8S3 294 893 2S4 59S 281 2S4 51 1,279E 9S4E 315E 979E 300E SS2E 29SE 3ooE ssE TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDif\IG IN ALASKA 1,592 1,730 2,000 2,226 2,524 2,845 3,147E ----------------~--------------------·--------· ------------------- ------------------------------------ E Estimated by the Division of Economic Enterprise, Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. a! Total Federal government obligations include all amounts set aside for direct spending by Federal agencies and also include grants and loans to the ~tate of Alaska, to local government units, or to other organizations or individuals in Alaska. Figures for fiscal years ending June 30 are interpolated from published figures for Federal fisc·al years ending September 30. b/ General expenditures of State and local governments include all expenditures except those from trust funds (including retirement funds and the unemployment insurance benefit fund) and expenditures by publicly owned utilities supported by service fees. Source: Community Services Administration, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare; Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce; and the Division of Economic Enterprise, Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical REview. 1980. Juneau, AK. p. E-1. ...... ....... 0'\ Fiscal Years Social Ending June 30 Education Services Health 1970 $ 98,592 $ 15,262 $11,114 1971 150,393 25,525 17,841 1972 177,509 31,855 19,714 1973 172,255 49,689 23,929 1974 184,637 51,887 29,611 1975 251,653 65,192 31,101 1976 307,800 79,872 39,198 1977 358.790 91,736 53,823 1978 378,816 102,084 64,000 1979 422,087 118,371 74,585 o/o of FY 1979 Expenditures By Function 33.0% 9.3% 5.8% TABLE 52 ALASKA STATE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES BY FUNCTION (thousands of dollars) Natural Resources & Environmental Public Administration Conservation Protection of Justice $16,330 $ 3,967 $14,914 19,776 5,547 19,573 22,104 5,284 23,529 24,305 7,028 31,281 27,233 7,925 35,341 35,362 12,953 43,669 49,764 18,383 54,579 81,792 20,430 67,989 86,046 24.453 70,641 96,592 28,221 81,189 7.6% 2.2% 6.3% General Development Transportation Government $ 13,514 $ 97,391 $ 25,293 22.480 106,621 38,491 225,904 119,797 47,206 24.414 145,735 64,398 30,623 166,376 63,113 42,237 194,964 74,762 46,995 235,755 89,202 54,657 253,121 104,412 50,168 265,922 106,144 68,383 249.483 140.443 5.3% 19.5% 11.0% Note: Included in the above figures are State funds awarded to local units of government for the functions indicated. Not included in the above figures are expenditures from trust funds, including retirement funds and the unemployment insurance benefit fund. Source: Division of Finance, Alaska Department of Administration. Total All Functions $ 296,377 406,247 672,902 543,034 596,746 751,893 921,548 1,086,750 1,148,274 1,279,354 100.0% From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AK. p. E-3. ..... ...... Fiscal Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Taxes $ 76,265 85,546 91,154 98.465 109.401 187,980 578,023 751,703 541,549 798,680 TABLE 53 STATE OF ALASKA REVENUES BY SOURCE LAST TEN FISCAL YEARS (thousands of dollars) Licenses & Intergovernmental Permits Revenue $10,015 $ 93,579 10,551 133,099 10,794 145,874 11.420 167.440 11,113 173,708 24,052 205,297 16,641 319,908 17,897 312,210 19,099 312,794 19,772 313,373 Charges Fines & Miscellaneous For Services Forfeitures Revenue $12,293 $ 574 $964,232a 12,165 662 110,142 14,677 708 106,366 19,090 814 80,038 33,399 953 95,250 28.493 3,956 102,803 19,343 3,353 80,566 21,805 2,132 80,794 21,258 2,307 179,224 24,925 2,177 266,652 ....,. a/ $900,041,605 was Oil Lease Sale. TAX REVENUES BY SOURer: LAST TEN FISCAL YEARS (thousands of dollars) Conservation Tax Income Business & Disaster Tax Oil-Gas Production Fiscal Year Tax License Tax Fuel Tax School Tax Tax & Severance Tax Cigarette Tax Property Tax Other Taxes 1970 $ 37,294 $14,912 $10,372 1971 41,718 17,909 10,958 1972 45,724 17,909 11.402 1973 50,400 18,813 12.404 1974 57,617 20,353 13,743 1975 104,320 29,724 25,214 1976 177,328 19,071 24,403 1977 246,243 23,252 20,418 1978 179,332 21,675 23,287 1979 374,731 28,158 22,323 $2,097 $ 8,249 1,466 10,527 1.493 11,401 1,576 12,028 1,643 14,760 2,151 29.424 2,637 31,189 2,589 30,189 2.401 116,143 2,530 185,823 $2,711 2,967 3,224 3,224 3,430 3,311 4,617 4,851 4,627 4,410 $ 6.480 306,429 409,768 177,031 163,448 Source: Alaska Department of Administration, Division of Finance. (Table first published in State of Alaska Annual Financial Report Year Ending June 30, 1979.) $ From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review. 1980. Juneau, AK. p. E-4. 263 15,232 17.426 19,939 20,013 ...... ........ o:> Total General Revenue .•.••.......•... From Federal Government •.•.......• From State Government •..•.....•..• Own Sources ••.•.....•.....•.... Charges and Miscellaneous .......... Taxes •.....•..........•.• -.. Property .•.•..•••...... · · · · General Sales ......•......... Total Direct General Expenditures ........ Education ...•...•.•............ Highways •.........••.........•.. Public Welfare .......••.........•. Health and Hospitals ....•........•. Police Protection ........•......... Fire Protection ..••............... Sewerage ........•.............. Financial Administration •........... Interest on Debt .................. Other Programs .....•••........... Source: U.S. Bureau of the Cens1,1s. TABLE 54 LOCAL GOVERNMENT GENERAL REVENUE AND DIRECT GENERAL EXPENDITURES IN ALASKA: FY 1972-FY 1978 (in millions of dollars) FY 1972 FY 1973 FY 1974 FY 1975 $194.9 $215.7 $311.3 $350.4 6.2 15.1 32.0 24.1 93.3 94.5 132.5 154.6 95.4 106.1 146.8 171.7 48.3 52.1 65.1 78.2 47.1 54.0 81.7 93.5 34.8 41.5 63.5 69.3 12.3 11.1 16.6 22.1 $244.6 $285.5 $324.0 $360.0 111.8 151.9 156.5 161.3 12.1 13.9 13.7 17.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 3.8 5.6 9.6 11.4 6.4 7.4 9.0 12.3 6.1 6.5 7.8 11.5 13.7 16.2 20.3 23.2 4.4 5.4 8.4 9.5 13.8 16.5 18.1 21.5 52.2 61.7 80.1 91.6 FY 1976 $430.5 26.9 193.8 209.8 84.4 125.4 94.0 28.9 $425.7 196.7 21.0 0.4 16.2 14.8 12.1 26.5 11.3 24.8 101.9 From: Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. Stati sti ca 1 REview. 1980. Juneau, AK. p. E-5. FY 1977 FY 1978 $499.6 $602.0 38.1 51.0 201.5 216.0 260.0 335.0 99.2 144.6 160.9 190.5 126.6 152.3 31.4 34.8 $539.2 $595.6. 253.4 253.6 29.1 21.5 0.9 .1 15.4 17.9 19.6 21.1 16.1 20.9 34.0 32.6 16.4 16.5 17.6 62.9 136.7 148.5 June 1980. The Alaska 3.6.2.1 -Anchorage As the major population center in Alaska, Anchorage is the hub of the state•s economy. The metropolis provides many of the support services required by development in other parts of the state with the possible exception of Southeastern Alaska. Most major industries have their state headquarters in Anchorage. In addition, the sheer size of the city creates internal demand for a wide range of goods and services. Anchorage is virtually all service or support oriented, except for some fish processing and construction-related manufacturing. The city has been characterized as a .. maturing teenager entering the post-adolescent life, experiencing an unsettling slowdown of its growth rate 11 • Indeed, growth over the past decade has been dramatic even though the rate of growth in economic activity has slowed since the pipeline days. Unlike Fairbanks, Anchorage's economy did not suffer a precipitous drop in activity after the pipeline, but tended to level off at a higher economic plateau. Indications at present suggest that resumed growth at a moderate rate will materialize, especially as much of the excess capacity created by the pipeline surge is filled. The slowdown in Anchorage•s economy was most pronounced in the trade and construction sectors. This, in turn, affected the real estate industry. Table 55 shows the value of construction authorized for Anchorage by quarter for 1975 through 1980. Deflated figures are pre- sented also. The slowdown in activity is readily apparent in comparing current dollar figures for the first quarter of 1980 with the first quarter of 1975. Anchorage is unique in Alaska in that activity almost anywhere else in the state stimulates its economy. Thus, if any of the major projects mentioned in the state economic base section occur, the effects will be noticed in Anchorage. Even without major resource development projects occurring, Anchorage•s economy will be boosted by the many public pro- 179 TABLE 55 TOTAL VALUE OF PERMITS ISSUED FOR RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL IN ANCHORAGE (expressed in current and 1967 dollars) 1975 1 2 3 4 1 C:ONSTRUC:TION Total Con&truchon (in 000 current Sl 3.632 49.214 48.01~ 22.302 22.323 Rnodent1al (in 000 currentS] 1,227 38,126 38.065 11.137 6.369 Non·•••dent•al (in 000 curr..,t $) 2.405 1T.088 9.945 11.165 15.954 TCIC•I Construction (in 000 19e7 Sl0 2.542 32.809 31.216 14.169 14,058 Res•dent•a• (•n 000 1967 S\ 859 25.417 24.750 7.076 4.011 Non-residential (in 000 1987 Sl 1.683 7.392 6.466 7.093 10.047 1977 1 2 3 4 1 CONSTRUCTION Total Construction (In 000 current$) 18,563 131,747 134.961 56.064 23.711 Res•dent•al (1n 000 current$) 10.G42 49.584 81.605 23.383 16.196 Non-resrdent•al(in 000 current$) 8.519 S2.163 53.356 32.681 7.515 Total Construct ron (1n 000 t967 S)0 10.957 76.331 76.078 31,621 13,232 Residential (in 000 1967 $) 5.928 28.728 46,001 13.188 9,038 Non-ruidentoal (1n 000 1967 $) 5.029 47.603 3007'7 18.433 4,194 1979 1 2 3 4 1 CONSTRUCTION Total Construction (1n 000 current$) 11.813 49.367 28.295 11.359 5.399 Res1dent1al (1n 000 current$) 7.054 37.695 17.682 6.947 1,826 Non~res1denhal (in OO'J current$) .. .759 11.672 10.613 4,412 3,573 Total Construct1on (in 000 t 967 $)' 5.963 24.403 13.643 5.320 2.474 Res1dent1al (in 0001967 $) 3,561 18.633 8.526 3,2!)4 137 Non-resid&nt•al (in 000 1967 $) 2.402 5.no 5.117 2.067 1,637 a Reflects all current dollars using Anchorage CPI. 1976 2 3 38.842 n.692 29.795 36.876 9.G47 40.816 2.4.021 47.115 18.426 22.363 5.595 24.752 1978 2 3 56,828 n.ss3 47.100 54.999 9,728 22.854 30.952 41,301 25.654 29.m 5.298 12.124 1980 2 3 34.838 60.162 20.615 48.02A 14.223 12.138 15.484 26.:>40 9.162 21.0213 6.322 5.314 Source: Municipality of Anchorage. First Quarterly 1980. Quarterly Economic Indicators. Anchorage, AK. pp. 4-5. 180 4 -40.797 21 . .t81 19.316 24.298 12.794 11.504 4 38.081 23.440 14.6<11 19.629 12.082 7.547 jects planned for the area. Most important of these is 11 Projects 80's, .. a large scale civic improvement and construction program. The major elements of this program are described below. Civic/Convention Center - A $20 million project of 50,000 square feet, capable of seating 4,500 people, and sized to handle 85 percent of the conventions held in the U.S. Performing Visual Arts Center -To be built in phases, Phase One will be a $15.5 million project consisting of a 2,700-seat concert hall and 300-seat drama center. Ultimately it will include an 1 ~800-seat opera house and 800-seat playhouse. F Street Mall -To be built in phases. Phase One will be a $5.4 million project. The mall will serve as a pedestrian-only connection between the previously two projects. Sports Arena - A $25 million enclosed sports facility which will seat up to '10,000 people. In addition to the $68 million authorized for 11 Projects 80's,11 a variety of state-financed civil projects are planned. An estimated $97.4 million in capital works projects was budgeted by the state government for projects in Anchorage in addition to the 11 Projects 80s 11 monies. These projects included an airport satellite building; various roads, highways, sewer, and sanitation facilities; and new educational, institutional, and public use buildings. Completion~ continuation, and implementation of these and other pro- jects wil help sustain Anchorage's construction industry and economy in general through the mid-1980's. 181 3.6.2.2 -Kenai Peninsula The economic base of the Kenai Peninsula is based primarily on the oil and gas industry, fishing and fish processing, and the tourism and recreation-related industries. These industries have greatly expanded over the past decade and generally broadened the economic base. Employment distribution in the region is concentrated in the Kenai-Nikiski industrial area. The Kenai-Cook Inlet area is uncormnonly dependent upon manufacturing and extractive industries. Alaska's largest petrochemical plant, Union Oil Company's Callier Carbon and Chemica 1 Corporation's ammonia-urea plant, is located in the Kenai-Nikiski area. Tesoro-Alaska's refinery, Phillips Marathon LNG plant, and SOCAL's refinery also operate in the Western Kenai area. Nikiski was also chosen as the site for Pacific-Alaska's LNG plant which has been delayed due to legal conflicts concerning the California receiving facility. Eastern Kenai Peninsula is dominated by Seward. The principal economic activity used to be related to the port and the Alaska railroad. This activity, though, has been reduced as Anchorage and Valdez have become the major ports of entry for cargo. Presently, 50,000 to 150,000 tons per year are handled through Seward. The port now serves as a shipping point for log and wood chip exports to Japan. Approximately 40,000 tons are shipped per year. Future economic activity in the area will likely develop around the fishing, forest products, and oil and gas industries. 3.6.2.3 -Fairbanks As the major city closest to the Trans-Alaska pipeline, Fairbanks enjoyed the greatest stimulus and the sharpest declines resulting from its construction. By almost all indicators, Fairbanks economy suffered a substational 11 bust 11 from which it is still recovering. 182 Figure 17 and Table 56 presents sales and property tax revenue since 1969 for the Fairbanks North Star Borough. The rise and fall of sales as reflected by revenues during the pipeline is apparent. If the figures were discounted to account for inflation impacts, the decrease would be even more dramatic. The trend in property tax revenues reflects the impact of pipeline-related property, an oil refinery, and general inflation. Fairbanks is similar to other cities in Alaska in that it is charac- terized by few manufacturing and many service or support firms. As the regional center for interior Alaska, the recent upswing in mining acti- vity is a favorable event. Figure 18 and Table 57 present data con- cerning new mining claims received. During the first eight months of 1980, 32 percent of all new claims were filed in Fairbanks. Table 58 presents a list of businesses in the borough classified by S.I.C. categories. The table illustrates the service/support orien- tation of the area. Of particular note is the number of construction firms. An important element of the Borough economy which does not show up in the table is the military presence. Eielson Air Force Base and Fort Wainwright, together account for approximately 7,000 military and related civilian employees. A major basic industry has emerged in the Borough. This is the 30,000 barrels per day North Pole Refinery of Earth Resources Company. The company recently expanded its capacity to produce more jet fuel and diesel/heating oil. The refinery supplies all the jet fuel sold at the Fairbanks airport, including the 66 flights per week attributable to foreign carrier refueling stops. Besides assuring a supply of fuels for the interior, the refinery generates substantia 1 revenues to the borough. Its assessed value was $33,058,125 in 1980. Total Borough assessment is presented for 1977-1980 in Table 59 along with related pipeline assessments. From the Table it is apparent that 183 FIGURE 17 -TABLE 56 TAX REVENUE BY SOURCE City of Fairbanks and Fairbanks North Star Borough Fiscal Years 1969-1980* 16,000 til 12,000 I.< (1) .-1 ....... ,2 '- 0 8,000 :r. -r:l :r: ;J 0 ..r: 4,000 E-< 0 Fiscal Year* 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 -----Property Tax Fairbanks North Star Borough -----Sales Tax ,.--- ~ ~ / / / 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 -----City of Fairbanks-----Fairbanks North Star Borough** Sales Tax Property Tax Sales Tax Property Tax $2,166,000 $1,137,000 $1,679,000 $ 2,747,000 2,526,000 1,254,000 2,087,000 3,331,000 2,757,000 1,650,000 2,188,000 2,448,000 2,949,000 2,123,000 2,360,000 1,504,000 3' 111.000 2,354,000 2,497.000 1,786,000 3,878,000 2,360,000 2,780,000 2,290,000 6,~24,000 3,148,000 4,518,000 3,035,000 7,489,000 3,697,000 6,596,000 4,034,000 7,385,000 3,761,000 6,744,000 6,820,000 6,257,000 4,076,000 7,100,000 6,977,000 5,645,000 4,004,000 5,819,644 11 '621 '2:;_ 9*** 5' 707' 136**·** 4,278,210**** 5,586,641 13,206,637*** * The city's fiscal year runs from January 1 through December 31 of the year listed. The borough's fiscal year runs from July.l of the previ- ous year through June 30 of the year listed. ** Fairbanks North Star Borough figures in years after 1975 reflect the modified accrual basis for revenue. *** Does not include the partial residential property tax exemption. **** The 1980 tax figures are preliminary subject to audit. Source: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Finance Department; compiled by the Community Information Center. From: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center. Fall 1980. Community Research Quarterly, A Socioeconomic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 38. 184 Fairbanks Barrow Manley Hot Springs Nulato Mt. McKinley Nenana Rampart Ft. Gibbon Kotzebue Talkeetna Palmer Nome Seward Juneau Haines Skagway Petersburg Wrangell Ketchikan Sitka Anchorage Iliamna Aleutian Islands Bristol Bay Seldovia Cordova Chitina"'"' Valdez Bethel Kuskokwim Kodiak Homer Kenai TOTAL FIGURE 18 -TABLE 57 NEW MINING CLAIMS RECEIVED Alaska 1979-1980, First Eight Months Comparisons Anchorage 4% w:::::=--------1 Petersburg 4% 8% Total Filings for First Eight Months of 1980 --------------------------------1980-------------------------------1979 B Month B Month % Change January February March April ~ June July August Total Total 1979-80 65 158 165 293 600 361 1,240 998 3,880 1,110 250% 0 0 0 0 362 0 0 0 362 150 141% 19 0 0 0 7 73 4 42 145 32 353% 5 19 2 0 452 31 14 23 546 17 3,112% 6 1 28 128 110 0 2 0 275 47 485~: 0 5 15 17 4 8 15 6 70 67 4% 0 0 12 0 0 0 6 0 18 3 500:1 12 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 23 68 -66% 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 840 -100% 26 266 122 58 227 28 152 334 1,213 694 7 5 ;; 12 61 93 98 108 14 72 95 553 226 145% 141 125 0 137 1,281 42 100 65 1,891 98.C. 92% 5 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 17 137 -88~~ 0 50 102 105 206 125 37 6 631 177 256% 0 4 0 3 4 18 5 7 41 4 925?. 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 "' 0 47 335 0 0 45 30 30 487 197 147% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 " 2 0 0 0 0 3 58 17 80 208 -62% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 "' 311 0 46 98 0 13 0 16 484 39 1,141% 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 " 1 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 13 0 " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 "' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 "' 0 0 1 12 0 1 0 14 28 4 600% 69 4 104 32 164 20 8 2 403 21 1,819% 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 5 -20% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 59 62 -5% 0 0 162 45 2 720 0 5 934 0 " 0 0 0 27 0 30 0 2 59 6 883% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 674 756 1,187 1,077 3,531 1, 545 1,746 1,721 12,237 5,419 126% " Number of units is too small to make a valid percentage comparison. "" Includes both the former districts of Chitina and Glenallen. Source: Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys; compile<i by the Community Information Center. From: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center. Fall 1980. Community Research Quarterly, A Socioeconomic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 48. 185 ..... co en Type of Business ~grlculture, Fore9try and Fishing A~rlrultural Prnductlon -Crops Agricultural Production -Livestock Agricultural Services Forestry Mining Md.{IH!ning Bituminous Coal and Lignite Mining Oil and Gas f.xtraction Nr'lllmrtallic Minerals, Except Fuels Coustructlon G~neral Building Contractors Heavy Construction Contractors Plumbing, Heating, 1\ir Conditioning PaJutJn~, Paper Hangin~, Decoratfu~ Ele<tr leal Work H.1sonry, Stonework and Plasterlnp; Carpentry and Flooring Rooflnp; and Sheet Metal Work Concr•'te Work Water Well Drilling Miscellaneous Special Trade Contrartor~ 1:t2.nufacturing App01r~l and Other Textile Product• Lumber and Wood Products f•Jrnlture and Fixtures Printing and Publishing Petroleum and Coal Products Rubbt>r 11nd Miscellaneous Plastics PnHlur:ts Leather and Leather Produtts Stone, Clay and Glass Products Primary Netal Industries Fabricated Metal Products Machinery, Except Electrical Electrical and Electronic Equipment Instruments and Related Products Hl•cellaneous Manufacturing Industries Transportation and Public Utilities Lr:wcal and Interurban Passenger Transit Trucking and Warehousing Water Transportation Alt Trant~;portatlon PtpelJn~s. EJtccpt N.1tur:tl Gas Tr~••~portatlon S~rvices Cnmrnun i cat Ion Elrctrlc, G~s :tnd S:ttlitary S~rvlces Wl1"' I es;JJ r. Tri-tUl"' \..rlu; i l-'~So"if~-(r·:;d~: -Oq r:1h 1 P c;nntl!; Whnl £'S.1 ie Tr ad,~-~PiuhJr~h l e r.ood s TABLE 58 CLASSIFICATION AND NUMBER OF BUSINESSES Fairbanks North Star Borough March and September, 1980 Number of RuslnPssrs Harch SPptemhPr ~~-, _ ___!21!Q_ 4 0 )I, 1 -94 50 60 12 J1 17 19 4 3 9 42 RO 4 II I 14 2 0 If> 1 5 J 0 14 106 28 I l5 I II 2'1 I 7 IIi 7 ~0 i i I 5 27 10 ~- 150 9h 49 hi II H In lA 6 4 11 47 91 6 ll 16 2 2 I 16 1 8 6 J I I~ 107 fi 2'i I ·1o I 1\ 27 l1 I' II 4 ChnnRe March - sr:pt_._l.'!._~ -Rr. 67. -6' -16~ 07, If>?; ~oi: IA7. Joot Jl•% 0% OY 07. 1n 607. -11<7. 07. * 7 •• ·- 1% 11,-i: -117, o:: 20% 0/: -'"10% IW' -n RPta i I Trari~ i\.u 1-l(li~ H.,··t £'r 1<~1 s and G.1rd'-•n Supp l h•s Genernl MPrrhandlse Stores Foocl Store!;. Automot Lve Dl"'.1lerg and Service 5tat Jons Appnrel .1nd Arccs!lorl£'~ StorPS FurnlLurr a11d !lome Furnlshlngfi Stores f.lting and Orluklng Places Ort•R and Proprietary Stores Li c1uor Store~ l1H•·rl MPrch~•••llse Stores Mlo:.ce11.1m'nt.l!i ~;hoppJng Gonds Scorr>s Nonstnrl"' Retailers FuP l Oil f),, a lt.•rs f'ti~t·£'1lilnPnu~ R£'ta11 Stores f-luanc~, Tnsuranrc and RNll f.:citnte r:r ~·~"i"ft-Xl~t·:~;c-t e·:i· ·ottw-;:--n~~-tl\-n:lllis-- St·cur It le!-;/Commndit h~H Rrokt'r!" .11u:l 5Prvlres lt1sur~ttc~ C;trrters lll"'urmwf' Ag£'ntq, Rrokers and SPrvl('cs RC".1I Esr;ttP lh,Jrling ,,nd Other lnveostm~nt Offirf"a s(~rv ices ii;,l(.1_5_-;lnd OthPr LodglnR Place!; Pcr"it'll·IJ .S~rv j c:e!i Advt>rtlsluR Crl'dlt Reporting nnd C"llectlon M;liJ lng, Reproductton, Stcuo SE'rvlccs to BuJldtn~s Pf'rsonnrl Supply SPrvlres ComputPr <111d Datil Pror.esr;inr,. Servire~ Ml~c~llm1£'tHic;. Ruslness Sl~rvice!; Auto RPpilir, S£'rvtces n11(l GaraRrs Miscellaneous Hepalr SC'rvtccs Motion PJcturcs ArmJ~C'mf'nt .1nd lkcr~atll'fl So:--rvlct"•S li(•a lt h SP rv i rer. l.r,~;\l SPrvlcr~ Fdnc.1liondl Sf•rvl_rr.~ Sr•<' I al Sr-rv I cl'~ ~hi~Piltn"i 1 l\nt.111lc:.'ll 1 Znolnp,lrnl G.1rtll"nS ~kmhcrship Organization!?> ~llsrellanPour; SC"rvices TOTAl. Numher of Rusln~sses H.1 rch .Sr>pt r-mh1• r )qAO 1980 -~-------- 1_,_0_'>_0 '" 22 41 )(, 42 ,.,,, Jl(, h I J 27 177 ~~I 10 lin 51 .1 1R I 2 '> 102 7 5 44 ~~6 2 lh 111 141 Ill 1R 4 18 lA 6 1n 1.177 -··D. 28 40 H 44 48 11~ .., 11 2H lA) ](,/, 2A 42 0 905 ~ -[4 l!O 6 5 4) 46 2 15 141 146 II 7 2 ~ ... 44 I II 118 Num\wr of units is too small to m:lkP •• vnlid r--·rrr-nt.,r.c rrunp.ar1o;;~'n. % ChanRe M<~rch - S~_r.t_.__!J_!l_Q _l_l! 2 '~ 17% -7t -Jr. 5'- -14% 1! -17~ Ot 4·· ~r. 1fl"! -It Ql: fi~ -])7, 07. 11~ or. 117. * 5% -U ~z -141. Ot -2% 0% 07. -67. 9~ 4 •. 5~ 0"' 1'•:. -1'>'. 1 ~~t ' .. •4-t. 0~ o- J )"' -r: ~-- Not{': ThP S:tJps Tax orfit'P USPS thP Srollld<ird 11ulustrl.11 rl."l~slfir:ltlcm rfldt" List tn rlasslfv buslne~s.es tlhtt havf' ri:'~~Ist('rl'd \ol{th thr 1-".1lrh.1nks Nnrrh St.1r n(lrnugh. Source: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Sales Tax Office; compiled by the Community Information Center. TABLE 59 BOROUGH AND PIPELINE RELATED ASSESSMENTS Fairbanks North Star Borough 1977-1980 % Change Pipeline % Change % Change From Previous Related From Previous Fr:>m Previous Year Borough Assessment Year Assessment* Year Total Assessment Year 1977 $ 856,118,575 NA $505,32o,780 NA $1,361,445,355 29% 1978 1,039,003,025 21% 595,071,640 18% 1,634,074,665 20% 1979 1,158,310,825 11% 795,252,410 34% 1,950,563,235 19% 1980 1, 271,671,200 10% 638,848,930 -20% 1,910,520,130 -2% NA Not available. • Assessed by the State • Source: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Assessing Department; compiled by the Community Information Center. From: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center. Fall 1980. Community Research Quarterly, A Socioeconomic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 40. pipeline assessments constitute about a third of the borough•s total assessments. 3.6.2.4 -Southeast Fairbanks The Southeast Fairbanks Borough is unincorporated and consists pri- marily of communities spread out along the Alaska Highway. The econo- mic base of the area is dependent upon highway-related services and businesses, Fort Greely, and agriculture. Government bodies including the military accounted for 82 percent of total employment in 1978. The military-related entities employed about 63 percent of the total. Roughly half of the non-government related employment was in the ser- vices category. Retail trade accounted for over a quarter of non- government employment. Because government plays such a dominant role in the economy, seasonal variations in total employment are minor. Highway-related businesses, however, have a definite seasonal cycle. Agriculture activities in the Tanana River Valley, especially in the Delta area near the intersection of the Richardson and Alaska Highways, have been expanding in recent years. In 1978, 58,000 acres of undeve- loped land was sold by lottery. Loans were made available through the state for agricultural development. Tracts ranged in size from 2,000 to 3,600 acres. An additional 16,000 acres has been offered for agri- cultural development since that time. The Tanana River Valley activity, known as the Delta Agricultural Project, has emphasized barley and rapeseed production for both domestic and export markets. A test marketing program in 1979 indi- cated that Delta barley was equal to or better than export quality. Rapeseed is also getting more attention as an export crop, and fits in well with barley cultivation on a rotation basis. 188 Several native villages are in the Southeast Fairbanks Borough. Employment in these communities is, in general, the same as for the Borough. Many natives, however, also pursue traditional hunting and gathering activities. Trapping is also a winter occupation for some. During the summer, some natives work for the BLM. 3.6.2.5 -Valdez-Chitina-Whitter This region can be divided into two sections; Valdez and the interior co11111unities along the Richardson Highway. Each section is addressed separately below. 3.6.2.5.1 -Valdez Historically Valdez served as an important point of entry into interior Alaska. Although ·in the past Valdez's prominence was usurped by Anchorage, the construction of the pipeline and ter- minal in Valdez ensured the City's role as a major transshipment point to the Interior. Oil shipments account for the overwhelming majority of gross tonnage moving through the port. Under construction, however, is a $40 million containerized cargo faci- lity which will expand the port•s capacity to handle cargo other than oil. State and local government is the largest employer in Valdez accounting for about 25 percent of the entire workforce. Transportation-communications-utilities sector also employs about a quarter of the employed labor force. Retail trade and construc- tion follow as the next largest employers. Growth in the local government sector can be attributed to the explosion in assessed value of land incorporated by Valdez. The pipeline terminal is the major piece of property within the city limits, but the Alaska Oil Company's planned refinery will add a substantial amount when completed. 189 The City of Valdez currently has the second largest per· capita assessed value, trailing only the North Slope Borough. Table 60 presents an avera 1 1 fi sea 1 camp a rison with Anchorage. The per capital projects expenditures figure shows the large capital construction effort undertaken. Footnote (6) refers to the cargo facility which is being financed through general obligation bonds. Valdez is likely to become one of Alaska•s few manufacturing- oriented cities. The City is actively promoting diversification of the local economy. Efforts are underway to promote the fishing industry which include the development of harbor facilities and a processing plant. 3.6.2.5.2 -Interior Communities The economy of the interior communities is based largely upon tourism-related and transportation activities. The latter cate- gory includes maintenance and operation activities relating to the trans-Alaska pipeline as well as the highways. The region has experienced a substantial increase in mining acti- vity recently as Table 57 in Section 3.6.2.3 illustrates. Important minerals in the area include copper, gold, silver, lead, iron, molybdenum, and chromite. Sand and gravel deposits are abundant in the area as well. Most mining operations at this time are small, placer-type mines. Although many minerals occur in commercial quantities, development problems remain, similar to those mentioned earlier for the state in general. Government constitutes the most important economic sector for the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier area employing about 40 percent of the work force. The next largest sector in terms of employment is transportation-communication-utilities followed by services and retail trade. A large part of the latter two is probably attribu- 190 TABLE 60 Comparison of Selected Public Fiscal Measures, City of Valdez and Municipality of Anchorage 1978 Per capita(1 ) general government expenditures Per capita capital projects expenditures City employees per thousand population Property tax levy (area wide average) (in mills) Real and personal property valuation (full value) (in billions) Per capita real and personal property valuation (full value) Per capita bonded debt Bonded debt as percentage of full value Notes Valdez $963(2 ) $1,130 13 5.7(3) $372,589(5) $2,752(6) Anchorage $539(2) $357 10 14(4 ) $5.27 $28,517 $1,248 4.38 (1) 1978 per capita calculations made on the basis of official population estimates (State of Alaska) of 184,775 for Anchorage; 4,481 for Valdez. (2) Excludes local support of schools; Source: City of Valdez Budget, 1979 -1980; Municipality of Anchorage. The 1978 Budget in Brief. (3) There were two tax zones in Valdez in 1978 with mil}age rates of 6.127 and 5.3204 respectively. (4) There were 14 tax zones in the Municipality with millage rates from 17.67 (Anchorage) to 10.42 (Borough outside Bowl). (5) Valdez does not have a personal property tax; Anchorage does. (6) In 1979 Valdez increased its bonded debt four fold with the sale of $48 million in General Obligation Bonds for construction of a new port. Source: Alaska Petrochemical Company, Refinery and Petrochemical Facility. December 1979. Environmental Impact Statement. Valdez, AK. p. II-59. 191 table to seasonal tourist-related activities. The region offers extensive natural resources conducive to climbing, hunting, fishing, and camping. Employment opportunities in the interior communities is generally limited. Seasonal jobs occur in construction and fire-fighting. Some natives are employed by AHTNA, Inc. and other Native cor- porations. Some natives either rely on or supplement their live- lihood through traditional hunting, trapping, and gathering activities. 3.6.2.6 -Matanuska-Susitna Borough Much of the information in this section is derived from two sources. One is the report prepared by the Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. (OEDP), July, 1980, consisting of Annual Report {Volume I), Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections {Volume II), and Appendices (Volume III). The other principal source is the Background Report, Phase I: Comprehensive Development Plan, Apri 1 1978, prepared by the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. It should be noted that the plan, of which this document is a part, was not adopted by the Borough. The reader is referred to both of the above documents for extensive discussions of the economic base of the Borough. The OEDP study is especially pertinent. Chapter 2 of Volume I 11 Changes in the Economy,11 has been included in this report as Appendix E because it provides a brief synopsis of the economic conditions and problems facing the Borough today. Because the Borough is the area which wi 11 be most impacted from the Susitna hydroelectric project if constructed, a more extensive discussion is presented than was for other areas. 192 The economy of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is dominated by forces emanating from Anchorage. Development as a result has occurred within close proximity to Anchorage concentrated along the Parks Highway except for the City of Palmer. Approximately 37 percent of the Borough residents work outside the Borough. (Policy Analysts, 1980) Thus, the Borough, to a large degree, is a bedroom community. Moreover, many of the recreational homes in the area are owned by Anchorage residents. The Big Lake area is perhaps a prime example. The Borough • s most recent planning document notes: 11 Indicative of the link between the Borough and Anchorage is the fact that approximately 55 percent of the Borough•s tax notices are mailed to Anchorage addresses ... (Borough, Apri 1 1978, p. 172) The dominant sectors of the Borough•s economy reflect the large influence of the tourism, recreation and residential elements present there. Table 61 presents an estimate for the types and locations of businesses in the major communities. Figure 19 presents the aggregated data graphically. From the table it can be seen that the largest number of businesses are in the support and service sectors. Services, retail trade, and finance-insurance-real estate firms comprise the majority of businesses in these com-munities. Construction is also a major category of businesses in the Borough. This reflects the growth and development conditions present there. Next to Palmer, Wasilla has the greatest number of businesses. Dramatic growth in the community occurred during the pipeline years. Most of all the businesses in Wasilla are service or construction-- oriented. Manufacturing businesses are concentrated in the Palmer ar~a. In 1972, the city created the Palmer Industrial Park to encourage economic deve- lopment. The park is zoned for light to medium industry. Half the sites have been filled. 193 ...... lO ~ TABLE 61 BUSINESS LOCATION AND TYPE Number in Community* Standard Industrial Classification Big Lake Houston Palmer Talkeetna Wasilla Willow Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries 3 22 Mining 2 Construction 19 3 50 3 91 4 Manufacturing 3 21 2 4 3• Transportation & Public Utilities 2 20 8 6 Wholesale Trade 11 Retail Trade 24 3 80 19 18 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 1 22 2 37 3 Services 17 1 115 13 129 4 Public Administration 1 12 3 5 Nonclassifiable Establishments 6 19 1 98 Total 74 9 374 51 364 38 * SIC classifications were assigned by the OEDP staff for use in this table, and number of establishments must be considered approximations. Source: Overall Economic Development Program Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections. Palmer, AK. pp. 19-21. FIGURE 19 MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BUSINESS DISPERSION • \\'illow -38 Big Lake - .Talkeetna -51 .Houston -9 -374 Source: Overall Economic Development Program Inc. July ~980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections. Palmer, AK. p. 24. 195 The Borough is encouraging economic development and is concentrating on promoting the Point MacKenzie area which is situated across the Knik Arm from Anchorage. The foci of the development plan are dairy farming and an industrial complex. Other indicators of the economy show that the Borough's base is oriented towards the service sectors. Table 62 presents gross business receipts for 1977 for Palmer and the Borough. Overall, Palmer accounted for 35 percent of total sales in 1977. Notable categories in the table include construction, retail and services especially real estate. Sales in these sectors relate to the tourism, recreation and residential-oriented components of the economy. Real estate sales account for the majority of sales in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector. Most likely this includes a large speculative element associated with the potential capital move to the Willow area. Examination of employment data for the Borough provides a different view of the major components of the economy, although the view that emerges conforms with that of the state in general. The largest employer is the government sector. State and local bodies account for about 90 percent of total government employment. Retail trade is the next largest, followed by services, transportation-communications- utilities, and construction. (See section 3.7 for data). Employment figures used in the preceding paragraph are based on place of work. Utilizing survey data dealing with employment by place of residence, the Borough's profile can be presented as in Table 63. The major difference is in the construction category. This is probably attributable to the fact that construction workers who maintain resi- dences there are employed in other parts of Alaska. Table 64 presents occupational information for the Borough's residents. The large professional/technical and manager/official categories are in keeping with the services and bedroom community orientations of the population and economy. 196 TABLE 62 GROSS BUSINESS RECEIPTS January 1, 1977, to December 31, 1977 Standard Industrial Classification Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation & Public Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Goods Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services Nonclassifiable Establishments Palmer 79,938 3,505,346 1,363,967 1,679,365 1,463,515 16,980,898 954,292 2,792,649 Total 28,819,970 Source: Alaska Department of Revenue Gross Business Receipts Mat-Su Borough Excluding Palmer 441,859 644,188 22,313,229 899,123 1,134,058 3,383,748 15,104,553 2,952,816 5,589,364 799,689 52,618,439 ($) Mat-Su Borough 521,797 644,188 25,818,575 2,263,090 2,813,423 4,847,263 32,085,451 3. 907.108 8,382,013 799,689 81,438,409 From: Overall Economic Development Program Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections. Palmer, AK. pp. 30-32. TABLE 63 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY FOR ADULT RESIDENTS OF MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH Industry Agriculture-Fishing Mining Construction Manufacturing (percent of total adults) Transportation, Utilities, Communications Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Professional Services Other Services Education Federal Government State Government Local Government Percent of Adults 2.9 5.5 16.6 2.5 10.5 2.8 11.4 4.5 9.4 9.4 9.1 6.3 5.4 3.6 Source: Policy Analysts, Limited, and Dr. Richard L. Ender. May 1980. Mat-Su Housing and Economic Development Study: Survey Findings. p. 72. 198 TABLE 64 OCCUPATION OF MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH ADULT RESIDENTS (percent of total adults) Occupation Professional/Technical Manager, Official Clerical, Sales Craftsmen Operatives Service Workers Laborers Farmers Armed Forces Others (Trappers, Self Employed, etc.) Percent of Adults 20.2 13.8 16.0 14.6 12.2 10.6 9.7 1.2 0.9 1.0 Source: Policy Analysts, Limited, and Dr. Richard L. Ender. May 1980. Mat-Su Housing and Economic Development Study: Survey Findings. p. 73. 199 Table 64 presents occupational information for the Borough•s residents. The large professional/technical and manager/official categories are in keeping with the services and bedroom community orientations of the population and economy. Outside of the major communities in the Borough, economic activity is related to mining, agriculture, timber products, or in pro- viding recreational services. Figure 20 shows locations of some of the known mineral deposits in the Borough. Many of the mining sites in the Borough are placer mines which work alluvial deposits for minerals. Figures 21 shows locations of mining districts in the Borough. In addition, the central area from the Talkeetna Mountains north to the Alaska Range has been designated a multiple · use area which will permit mining activity. Virtually all mining historically has occurred in these districts and this pattern is expected to continue (OEDP 1980, p. 139). Of particular relevance to the proposed Susitna dams are the following areas: The Susitna-Chulitna portion of the Yentna Mining District where molybdenum, gold, copper, lead, silver, and antimony are scattered over a distance of several tens of miles. The Upper Susitna River area where the Denali prospect, a copper deposit, has been discovered but has not yet been deve- loped into a mine. The major mineral resource in the Borough is coal. Extensive deposits of varying quality occur in the river valleys. Figure 22 shows locations of known fields. Also present in the Borough are peat bogs which may become an important energy source. The U.S. Forest Service has classified 1,295,000 acres in the Borough as conmercial forest land. This acreage is located pri- marily in the lowlands, since elevations above 1,500 feet in 200 Outside of the major communities in the Borough, economic activity is related to mining, agriculture, timber products, or in providing recreational services. Figure 20 shows locations of some of the known mineral deposits in the Borough. Many of the mining sites in the Borough are placer mines which work alluvial deposits for minerals. Figures 21 shows locations of mining districts in the Borough. In addition, the central area from the Talkeetna Mountains north to the Alaska Range has been designated a multiple use area which will permit mining activity. Virtually all mining historically has occurred in these districts and this pattern is expected to continue (OEDP 1980, p. 139). Of particular relevance to the proposed Susitna dams are the following areas: The Susi tna-Chul itna portion of the Yentna Mining District where molybdenum, gold, copper, lead, silver, and antimony are scattered over a distance of several tens of miles. The Upper Susitna River area where the Denali prospect, a copper deposit, has been discovered but has not yet been developed into a mine. The major mineral resource in the Borough is coal. Extensive deposits of varying quality occur in the river valleys. Figure 22 shows loca- tions of known fields. Also present in the Borough are peat bogs which may become an important energy source. The u.s. Forest Service has classified 1,295,000 acres in the Borough as commercial forest land. This acreage is located primarily in the lowlands, since elevations above 1,500 feet in Alaska are not conducive to timber growth. (There are no commercially valuable timber stands in Study Area 1 due to the elevation.) Most of the Borough.•s timber is suitable only for pulp and chip production. Some lumber is produced for the local market. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation signed a 10-year contract with Japanese concerns for wood chips, much of which is being produced in the Borough. 201 FIGURE 20 MiNERAL RESOURCES MA1ANUSKA-SUSITNA 1\U Cold t\o St BH'I\\llll Ill C Coal • Pe tc ter,,l c ClaY • Pb Co Cobalt Pt Cu Copper Sb Fe Iron Sn r.v Gypsum • II !Ia lla ydlte • Zn llg \. t\4 I I I I I I . . ~ ~ -~ .. ......... ,r \ .•' ·~ -~--__, > ·'\ \.._/ I ; : '·~·· . ' ''"'' \=' ,_.,, . \ \~~·l: I . . '" I ,~• .· :.:. FIGURE 21 MINING OISTRICTS (Locatable Minerals-lodes & placer) A-WILLOW CREEK DISTRICT· B--NELCHINA DISTRICT c-VAI:.DEZ DISTRICT o ....:_.. CHULITNA DISTRICT E--YENTNA DISTRICT Source: .~~ .. ~~:"~~I'::~~~ .... ~ "T"'-.r· . . .. ,_ \ \ ~-f{;?-I )~;:~51,~\-; :cptJ Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department FIGURE 22 COAL A-i\1\T/\IlUSKA s -BRO.I\0 PI\SS c-SUSITIII\ 0-BEL!IGI\ E-OTHER FIELDS Source: Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department From: Overall Economic Development Program Inc. July 1980. Volume II: Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projections. p. 134. Agriculture has played an important part in the historical development of the Borough. Up until the early 1960 1 s commercial agriculture pro- duction continued to ·increase. Since then the number of farms and volume of production has declined. This condition is due to changes in economic activity within the Borough. 11 The focus of public attention has turned to land speculation, residential subdivisions, service and construction businesses to meet the needs of the Valley•s suburban population and public services for people whose employment is not related to agriculture in any manner. 11 (Borough, 1978, p. 104). The Borough government is attempting to reverse the decline through various means including the Point MacKenzie Project. 3.7 -Employment 3.7.1 -Introduction The best indicator for levels of economic activity and changes in eco- nomic activity in Alaska is employment data. Income (wage and salary) data could also be used as an indicator, but this data is not as reliable as employment data. Thus, employment data from several years is presented and analyzed in this subsection to provide a better understanding of the state economy, the economy of Study Area 3, the component local economies and interrelations among these economies. Data from 1970, 1975, and 1979 was chosen so as to provide an understanding of the economies before, during, and after the trans-Alaska pipeline. Data from 1979 is the most current avail able. Extensive and detailed analysis of this and other employment data is deferred until the forecasting methodology is finalized (See Subsection 3.10). Unemployment, total civilian workforce, and o_ccupational data are also presented in this subsection. This data helps describe economic acti- vity and structure. As with employment, extensive and detailed analy- sis of this and other unemployment and occupational data is deferred 209 until the forecasting methodology is finalized. Additionally, income data will be presented in the future as a supplement to the employment data. 3.7.2 -Employment by Sector 3.7.2.1 -State Trends Alaska•s economy has been historically dependent upon development of its natural resources, primarily fisheries, minerals, and timber. Employment as a result has been oriented towards these extractive industries. In addition, the military has played a major role since World War II. In 1965 approximately 37 percent of Alaska •s work force were military employees. Beginning in the 196o•s significant shifts in employment began, paralleling the trends for the nation in general. Table 65 presents Alaska•s nonagricultural wage and salary employment, categorized by major industry sector, for the years 1970, 1975, and 1979. The Table presents both levels and percent of total for each industry group. The most notable shift occurred in federal government employment. From 1970 to 1979, total civilian federal employment grew slightly while state total employment rose 80 percent. federal government employment fell from employment in 1970 to 10.8 percent in 1979. Thus, the proportion of 18.5 percent of total The sector with the largest absolute gain is state and local government employment. From 1970 to 1979, this sector employed an additional 18,000 persons. The sector•s share increased slightly over the period to 22 percent of total employment. This trend reflects the increasing role of state and local governments in providing services to residents. As petroleum-based revenues accrue to the state and if these are are passed on to state and local governments, then this trend will probably continue. 210 N 1:-' 1-' TABLE 65 STATE ANNUAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR 1970 1975 1979. Total % Total % Total % TOTAL 1-Nonagricultural Industries 92,400 100.0 161,689 100.0 166,406 100.0 Mining 3,000 3.2 3,790 2.3 5, 773 Construction 6,900 7.5 25,735 15.9 10,092 Manufacturing 7,800 8.4 9,639 6.0 12,818 Transportation -Communication & Utilities 9,100 9.8 16,473 10.2 16,704 Wholesale Trade 3,200 3.5 5,908 3.7 5,511 Retail Trade 12,100 13.1 20,300 12.6 23,877 Finance-Insurance and Real Estate 3,100 3.3 6,030 3.7 8,035 Services 11,400 12.3 25,136 15.5 28,345 Federal Government 17,100 18.5 18,288 11.3 17,915 State and Local Government 18,500 20.0 29,247 18.1 36,617 Miscellaneous 200 .2 1,143 .7 720 1 Figures may not total correctly because of averaging. Source: Alaska Department of Labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau, AK. (various issues) 3.5 6.1 7.7 10.0 3.3 14.3 4.8 17.0 10.8 22.0 .4 Total government employment in the state accounted for 32.8 percent of total employment. This represents a decline from 1970 when government employed 38.5 percent of the total. Nevertheless, government still accounts for more employment in Alaska than any other sector. Another discernible trend over the period is the growth in the service and support sectors. The industry share for services rose by 4.7 per- cent over the period. This was the largest increase in percentage terms of any sector. Transportation, conmunications, and utilities (TCU); retail trade; and finance. insurance. and real estate (FIRE) all showed increases in industry share. This reflects the 11 maturation 11 of the Alaskan economy as it becomes 1 arge enough to support these sec- tors. Ironically, perhaps, the role of the 11 producing 11 sectors which provide the economic base of the state 1 s economy, is not as important in terms of overall direct employment. With the exception of mining. the pro- ducing sectors show a decline in industry share of employment during 1970 to 1979. Another pattern which is apparent is the aberrations in the overal 1 trend from 1970 to 1979. Construction employment almost quadrupled from 1970 to 1975. Wholesale trade as well as construction reached higher levels of employment in 1975 than in 1979. These figures reflect the impact created by construction of the Trans-Alaska pipe- line. The project employed thousands of construction workers between 1974 and 1977. Wholesale trade employment surged during the same period as large quantities of sand, gravel. and machinery were required. The impact of the pipeline is evident in the total employment figures. The state experienced a majority of growth in employment over the period tabulated between 1970 and 1975 when employment increased 75 percent to 161,689. From 1975 to 1979 total employment increaserl only 212 3 percent. Figure 23 presents employment data graphically from 1974 to August 1980. The sharp increase prior to the beginning of 1976 as well as the "leveling off" from 1976 onward are evident. 3.7.2.2-Study Area 3 Table 66 presents non-agricultural employment data for Study Area 3. This area is comprised of the following census divisions: Anchorage, Fairbanks, Southeast Fairbanks, Matanuska-Susitna, Valdez-Chit ina- Whittier, Kenai, and Seward. The data was obtained by summing over these divisions. Included in Table 66 are figures showing each sector as a percent of total state employment in the sector. These figures provide estimates of Study Area 3's (regional) share of total state employment in each sector. In general, the same trends are apparent here as for the state figures. Notable differences are the relatively higher· share of the service and support sectors and relatively lower shares for producing sectors with the exception of construction. These differences are to be expected considering that seafood processing and wood products firms (main com- ponents of manfucturing) are dispersed along the coasts and in Southeast Alaska, and many mining operations occur outside of Study Area 3. This structure is highlighted in the regional share figures. Table 67 presents employment data for Anchorage including regional share figures relative to Study Area 3 and the state. The figures clearly illustrate Anchorage's dominance relative to Study Area 3 and the state. Not surprisingly then, general trends for Anchorage are similar to those for the region and state. 3.7.2.3 -Study Area 2 Table 68 presents employment data for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough including the Borough's share relative to Study Area 3. Most striking 213 I N usa p 1441 e X 128 FIGURE 23 ALASKA NONA G. EMPLOYMENT INDEX t 972= t 00 AUGUST=164.3 7& 78 77 78 78 •a ., YEAR Source: Alaska Department of Labor. October 1980. Alaska Economic Trends. Juneau, AK. p.S. TABLE 66 STUDY AREA 3 ANNUAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR PERCENT OF STATE 1970 1975 1979 1970 1975 1979 Total _!_ Total _..!_ Total _!__ _1_ _I_ _I_ TOTAL 1-Nonagricultural Industries 62,690 100.0 113,818 100.0 113,204 100.0 67.8 70.4 68.0 Mining 1,610 2.6 2,243 2.0 2,822 2.5 53.7 59.2 48.9 Construction 5,264 8.4 16,359 14.4 8,257 7.3 76.3 63.6 81.8 Manufacturing 1,850 3.0 2,596 2.3 3,705 3.3 23.7 26.9 28.9 Transportation -Communication & N Ut 11 it ies 6,021 9.6 12,094 10.6 12,062 10.7 66.2 73.4 72.2 ....... !.n Wholesale Trade 5,366 4.7 5,083 4.5 90.8 92.2 12,111 19.3 79.2 Retail Trade 15,965 14.0 18,309 16.2 78.6 76.7 Finance-Insurance and Real Estate 2,520 4.0 4,696 4.1 6,139 5.4 81.3 77.9 76.4 Services 8,868 14.1 20,995 18.4 19,674 17.4 77.8 83.5 69.4 Federal Government 12,372 19.7 13,022 11.4 12,728 11.2 72.4 71.2 71.0 State and local Government 11,585 18.5 17,799 15.6 21,130 18.7 62.6 60.9 57.7 Miscellaneous 52 .1 217 .2 712 .6 26 19.0 98.9 1 Figures may not total correctly because of averaging and disclosure limitations on data. Source: Alaska Department of labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau, AK. (various issues} TABLE 67 ANCHORAGE ANNUAL NONAGRl CULTURAL H1PLOYt1ENT BY SECTOR PERCENT OF STUDY AREA 3 PERCENT OF STATE 1970 1975 1979 1970 1975 1979 1970 1975 1979 Total __!_ Total __!_ Total ~ I _,_ I -' _1 _1 TOTAL 1-Nonagricultural Industries 41.995 100.0 69.561 100.0 77.569 100.0 67.0 61.1 68.5 45.4 43.0 46.6 Mining 958 2.3 1.300 1.9 1.984 2.6 59.5 58.0 70.3 31.9 34.3 34.4 Construction 3.514 8.4 6.913 9.9 5.735 7.6 66.8 42.3 69.5 50.9 26.9 56.8 Manufacturing 1.018 2.4 1.572 2.3 1.735 2.3 55.0 60.6 46.8 13.0 16.3 13.5 N Transportation -Communication & ...... 0'1 Utilities 3.907 9.3 7.343 10.6 7.998 10.6 64.9 60.7 66.3 42.9 44.6 47.9 Wholesale Trade 4,076 5.9 4,012 5.3 76.0 78.9 69.0 72.8 8.617 71.2 56.3 Retai 1 Trade 20.5 10.852 15.6 13.130 17.4 68.0 71.7 53.5 55.0 Finance-Insurance and Real Estate 1.980 4.7 3.615 5.2 4,894 6.5 78.6 77.0 79.7 63.9 60.0 60.9 Services 6.403 15.2 13.188 19.0 13.306 17.6 72.2 62.8 67.6 56.2 52.5 49.9 Federal Government 9.509 22.6 10.176 14.6 9.758 12.9 76.9 80.0 76.7 55.6 55.6 54.5 State and Local Government 6.037 14.4 10.416 15.0 12.403 16.4 52.1 58.5 58.7 32.6 35.6 33.9 Miscellaneous 52 .1 110 .2 614 .a 100 50.7 51.9 26 9.6 61.0 1 Figures may not total correctly because of averaging. Source: Alaska Department of Labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau. Ak. (various issues) TABLE 68 MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH ANNUAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR PERCENT OF STUDY AREA 3 1970 1975 1979 1970 1975 1979 Total _!__ Total ..1._ Total ..1._ I _1_ _I TOTAL 1-Nonagricultural Industries 1,145 100.0 2,020 100.0 3,078 100.0 1.8 1.8 2.7 Mining * * 11 .3 * * .o Construction 120 10.5 188 9.3 184 6.0 2.3 1.1 2.2 Manufacturing * 30 1.5 40 1.3 * 1.2 1.1 Transportation -Communication & Utilities 114 9.6 218 10.8 316 10.2 1.9 1.8 2.6 N ...... Wholesale Trade 44 2.2 49 1.6 .8 1.0 ...... 174 15.2 1.4 Retail Trade 271 13.4 696 22.6 1.7 3.8 Finance-Insurance and Real Estate 22 1.9 62 3.1 129 4.2· .a 1.3 2.1 Services 179 15.6 288 14.3 447 14.5 2.0 1.4 2.3 Federal Government 106 9.3 124 6.1 97 3.1 .9 1.0 .8 State and Local Government 376 32.8 758 37.5 1,101 35.8 3.2 4.3 5.2 H1sce llaneous * * 21 .7 * * 1.8 * Data unavailable due to disclosure policy. 1 Figures may not total correctly because of averaging and disclosure limitations on data. Source: Alaska Department of Labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau, AK. (various issues) is the 35.8 percent industry share for the state and local government sector, (The regional share figures are quite similar). Borough accounts for only 2. 7 percent of total employment in Study Area 3 yet accounts for 5.2 percent of state and government employment. A simi 1 ar pattern is found in the retai 1 sector. The sector 1 s share within the Borough is 22.6 percent and the regional share is 3.8 per- cent. In general, the Borough•s employment is virtually all govern- ment, service, and support sector-oriented. An interesting comparison is made possible by using the regional share figures. By comparing the percentage share of total employment with that of each sector a relative concentration "coefficient" can be derived. This is basically a modified location quotient method which may indicate if the area is providing (exporting) or demanding services to the rest of the region. This is a rough estimation procedure and the results may indicate that a given area•s ~opulation has a different demand pattern for services. Still, results obtained from this may be enlightening. For Anchorage, most regional shares are higher than the regional share of total employment indicating that Anchorage "exports" services. Mat-Su, on the other hand, shows the opposite pattern indicating it "imports" many services. These results are not surprising based on the relative size of each economy. However, as mentioned above, this also reflects the different structures of the economies. Table 69 presents employment data for Valdez-Chitina-Whittier. As with Mat-Su, state and local government employs substantially more persons than any other sector. The transportation, communications,, and ut"ili- ties sector is the next largest component. This is due to the fact that employment associated with the pipeline is classified as transpor- tation. 218 1'\) ..... 1.0 TABLE 69 VALDEZ-CHITINA-WHITTIER ANNUAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR PERCENT OF STUDY AREA 3 1970 1975 1979 1970 1975 Total _!_ Total _L Total ...!_ _ s _s _ TOTAL 1-Nonagricultural Industries 831 100.0 4.763 100.0 2.180 100.0 1.3 4.2 Mining * * * * * Construction 21 2.5 2.518 52.9 86 3.9 .4 15.4 Manufacturing * 14 .3 19 .9 * .5 Transportation -Communication & Ut11ities 61 7.3 389 8.2 472 21.7 1.0 3.2 Wholesale Trade 62 1.3 18 .8 1.2 95 11.4 .8 Retail Trade 321 6.7 181 8.3 2.0 Finance-Insurance and Real Estate * 73 1.5 70 3.2 * 1.6 Services 99 11.9 709 14.9 445 20.4 1.1 3.8 Federal Government 63 7.6 58 1.2 46 2.1 .5 .4 State and Local Government 464 55.8 613 12.9 840 38.5 4.0 3.4 Miscellaneous 0 D.O * * 0.0 * * Data unavailable due to disclosure policy. 1 Figures may not total correctly because of averaging and disclosure limitations on data. Source; Alaska Department of Labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau. AK. (various issues) 1979 _s 1.9 * l.D .5 3.9 .4 l.D 1.1 2.3 .4 4.0 * 3.7.3 -Unemployment and Total Civilian Workforce Historically the unemployment rate for Alaska has been higher than rates for states in the Lower-48. In 1970, unemployment in Alaska was 10.3 percent. The rate dropped as the pipeline was constructed. In 1975, a pipeline year, the rate was 6.9 percent. In 1979 the average unemployment was 8.9 percent. The usually higher unemployment rate for Alaska compared with other states is due to several factors. One is that Alaska's population growth has been historically spurred by "boom" type periods. Many in- migrants are attracted -many of whom do not have the appropriate skills. Ironically, because Alaska's workforce is relatively small, workers with special skills are often recruited from the Lower-48 sta- tes. The influx of workers, both skilled and unskilled, can tend to offset the demand created. Therefore, the unemployment· rate may not drop as dramatically as one would expect. The boom-oriented workforce also may not fit into the economy once the particular project is completed. The resulting out-migration can be significant as occurred in the post-pipeline years. Apart from boom periods, Alaska's economy is highly cyclical, espe- cially in the resource-oriented sectors such as fisheries and forest products. Alaska's climate also creates cyclical employment (and unemployment) patterns in the construct ion sector and tourism-related industries. This pattern is evident in Figure 24 which shows employment by quarter and as a moving average since 1966. These swings are even more noticeable in Figure 25 which plots the unemployment rate since 1975. An additional factor affecting the unemployment figures is the native population which tends to have a high unemployment rate. The reasons for this are both cultural and structural. Many natives are outside the money economy and many have low educational and skill levels. 220 FIGURE 24 t--t--------t--------t-------t--------t--------t-------t--------t--------t-------t--------t--------t-------t--------t-Employ- STATEWIDE QUARTERLY TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT WITH MOVING AVERAGE I" I \ , I I ' , , , I 1~ I I I \ I , ---Actual (Ouorterlyl -Moving Average 188769 -186471 -184173 181975 -179::076 -177278 -174980 172682 170394 168086 16::0787 163499 l611'i'l 158893 156595 -15-4291 151'i'99 -14'i'700 147402 -145104 -l-42806 140508 138209 -135'i'll -133613 -131315 1.29017 126719 -12-44:;!0 -122122 -119924 -117526 115::!2S -112930 110631 108333 -106035 103737 -101439 -'i'9140.:I -96842.3 -94~44.2 -92246 -81'947.8 -97649.7 -8:>3~1.5 -930~3.3 -80755,~ -78457 -761::08.8 -/3860.7 -7156:!.5 -69264.] -66966.2 -64668 ~--t--------t--------t-------t--------t--------t-------t--------t--------t-------t--------t--------t-------t--------t- I 9 6 6 t 9 6 7 I 9 6 8 9 6 9 'i' 7 0 9 7 I Source: Alaska Department of Labor. Juneau, AK. p. 9. 'i' 7 9 7 3 9 7 4 'i' 7 5 'i' 7 6 9 7 7 9 7 8 9 7 'i' 1980. Annual Planning Information, FY 1981. R A T E FIGURE 25 ALASKA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE .· Source: Alaska Department of Labor. September 1980. Alaska Economic Trends. Juneau, AK. p.7. 222 Table 70 presents data on unemployment rates and total workforce for the state and census divisions included in Study Area 3 for the years 1970, 1975, and 1979. Most individual divisions follow the trend shown for the state, i.e., a relatively high rate in 1970, dropping in 1975 due to pipeline impacts, and increasing to a rate in 1979 slighly lower than the 1970 figure. The only exception to this is Fairbanks. Fairbanks experienced the greatest growth-inducing impacts from construction of the pipeline, yet unlike the state and Anchorage, Fairbanks employment subsequently dropped precipitously. This comparison is graphically presented in Figure 26. As out-migration of the workforce occurred, the unemployment rate began to fall. The highest unemployment rate in each year was for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Comparing total civilian labor force to total nonagricultural employment figures, the wide discrepancy is apparent. One reason for this is that the nonagricultural statistics do not include agricultural, self-employed, domestic household, unpaid family, striking workers, or unemployed workers. Another reason is that a substantial number of workers commute to Anchorage. The OEDP study estimated this at 37 percent of the Borough's total population. 3.7.4-Occupational Distribution Occupational distribution patterns in Alaska have changed over time reflecting the changing structure of the economy. As the service and support sectors have grown, occupations associated with these sectors have expanded. Figure 27 illustrates the distribution of total state employment by major occupational group for 1979. Table. 71 presents cross-industry employment by major occupational group for 1978. 223 N N -Po Area State Study Area 3 Anchorage Fairbanks Kenai-Cook Inlet Seward Southeast Fairbanks Matanuska-Susitna Valdez-Chitina .. Whittier 1 By Place of Residence TABLE 70 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE DATAl AND PERCENT UNEMPLOYED FOR SELECTED AREAS 1970 1975 Percent Percent Labor Force Unemployed Labor Force Unemployed 116,800 10.3 155,104 6.9 79,347 9.9 110,283 6.1 51,398 8.3 65.938 5.9 18,003 10.4 24,989 4.8 5. 727 17.1 8.576 8.7 938 17.1 1.255 9.2 {included in Fairbanks) 2,041 3.8 2,130 20.3 4, 784 11.1 1,151 11.5 2,700 5.3 1979 Percent Labor Force Unemployed 180,000 8.9 126,110 9.0 78.822 7.1 20.537 12.3 10,971 12.1 1,494 10.9 2.052 10.7 9,018 13.8 3,216 9.5 Source: 1970 data -Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. 1979. Numbers. Juneau, AK. 127 pp. 1975 and 1979 data -Alaska Department of Labor, Research and Analysis Section. FIGURE 26 NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE ~~D SALARY EMPLOYMENT INDEX (1972 = 100) Fairbanks, Anchorage and Alaska 1974-1980 220.0 ~------------------------------------------------------~ -Fairbanks ---Anchorage ··· · · · ·· Alaska 190.0 +---------~-+.~~--------------------------------------~ ::< : •• .• t ..... • • •• ~ 160' 0 +-------1-------l . .· •, . ~ . ~ 1-1 ...... • rv-- ... / ./ ,/ .. ··/ 130.0+-----~~---------------------------------------------~ 1974 19/5 1976 1977 1978 1979 Source: Community Research Center. From: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center. Community Research Quarterly. A Socioeconomic Review. Fairbanks, AK. p. 46. 225 FIGURE 27 ALASKA STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS 1979 Managers & Officers -9.1% Craft Workers, Operators & Laborers -32.5% Salespersons -5.2% Clerical Workers -21.6% Source: Alaska Department of Labor. August 1979. Occupational Employment Forecast. Juneau, AK. p. 4. 226 N N -..J Managers and Officers Professional Technical Service Maintenance and Production Clerical Sales TOtal A,!l Occupations Source: 26 270 431 332 404 121 114 765 32 712 119 160 53 40 ~5 221 690 20 11 11 68 21 30 81 51 154 12 16 14 18 275 3,029 l.D64 3,422 2.617 717 1,086 12 30 653 309 282 3)2 142 122 3,007 33 15 81 30 396 5,468 3,992 .4,385 3,510 1,083 1,463 4,048 TABLE 71 CROSS INDUSTRY El'lPLOYMENT BY MA-JOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP ALASKA STATF.WIDE 1978 213 282 294 197 75 424 87 99 220 46 55 545 2l 15 0 0 210 94 270 2,,307 383 1,316 U7 330 276 402 582 323 347 470 231 1,122 60 109 281 43 20 136 57 0 895 56 25 956 1,452 I, 781 3,339 1,166 4,335 1,037 204 82 218 136 426 370 227 5,668 12 42 799 491 796 426 898 5,910 57 0 5l2 0 41 14 427 2,160 27 2l7 559 16 737 544 31 7, 795 680 82 83 280 358 215 17,726 270 109 889 628 511 805 458 12,041 71 55 4 0 6 51 1,016 I, 321 607 3,084 1,272 2, 797 2,568 2 ,256 52,316 Alaska Department of Labor. September 1979. Industries 1978. Juneau, AK. p. 5. Occupational Employment Statistics --Nonmanufacturing 3.8 -Land Use 3.8.1 -Introduction This section is included in the socioeconomic baseline profile because of the fundamental role land use issues play in determining economic activities in a given area. Relative to potential Susitna hydroelectric development projects, the most important land use con- siderations involve the area in close proximity to the dams, impound- ments, access routes, and transmission corridors. Land use issues in the area are being analyzed under Subtask 7.07. As such, discussions concerning Study Area 1 are deferred to this 1980 Annual Report. Land use considerations out side of Study Area 1 but within Study Area 2 are briefly addressed below. 3.8.2 -Land Use Issues within Study Area 2 3.8.2.1 -Land Use Issues in Matanuska-Susitna Borough The status of land in the Borough is an on-going issue. The topic is complicated and made more important due to the fact the Borough is experiencing substantial growth concentrated in the southern portion. Both land use and land tenure are topics of debate. Figure 28 shows the land tenure in the Borough as of May 1967. Changes have occurred si nee that time due to state and federal 1 and disposal policies, especially the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act. The former is currently a major issue in the Borough. The Alaska Department of Natural Resources was mandated in 1978 to dispose throughout the state of 100,000 acres per year for five years to pri- vate ownership. The program did not achieve the mandated level in FY 1979 or FY 1980. 11 The problem is •• ,11 a state official noted, " ••• that we 1 re offering lands, but not the type of lands people really want.11 (Frontiersman, November 20, 1980). 228 FIGURE 28 LAND TENURE D PRIVATE D BOROUGH 0 51ATE r /~/I GEJ..t(R:.LIZ£0 t>~E :CYJNhNT Sf.(: T 10 t~ S H A r~t.; From: Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. April 1978. Phase I: Comprehensive Development Plan. Palmer, AK. p. 43. '--/' r(T .'ij. : ~ ' .. : Conflict apparently is inevitable due to the procedures for land dispo- sal. Native claims were granted first priority, then boroughs and municipalities. State agencies were then allowed to pick out areas of "statewide interest such as parks and recreation lands, wildlife habi- tats, and state forests." {ibid) What remained went into the land bank for disposal. Problems in the Borough stem mainly from incompatible uses and/or tenure. Protection of wildlife habitat precludes most forms of deve- lopment, for example. In addition, after lands are designated for disposal and platted by the state, servicing them becomes the respon- sibility of the Borough. Many of the parcels offered are in remote areas without adequate access. Problems also arise because of restric- tions on access to other public lands created by converting certain public lands to private ownership. Intensive land use activities are concentrated in the southern part of the Borough and along the principal highways. The majority of land in the Borough, however, is used for more dispersed activities, prin- cipally recreation and mining. For a current detailed description of land use activities in the Borough, the reader is referred to the Susitna Basin Land Use/ Recreation Atlas. {Alaska Department of Natural Resources, 1980). Selections and withdrawals of land in the Borough by Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) and its member village corporations have encountered obstacles. (See the Borough 1 s Phase I Comprehensive Plan, April 1978, Appendix C, for a detailed discussion of ANCSA 1 s implications for CIRI and the Borough.) These obstacles are predominately legal in nature. One important characteristic of the Native land selections relative to the Susitna project is that much of the project site has been selected by CIRI. Figures 29 and 30 show tentative land selections in the Borough. Figure 29 shows regional corporation selections and Figure 30 shows village corporation selections. Future use of this area will 231 NATIVE CLAIM LANDS MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH TENTATIVE SELECTIONS-1977 D D COOK INLET REGION LAND TRADE REGIONAL SELECTIONS From: l·latanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. April 1978. Phase I: Comprehensive Development Plan. Palmer, AK. p. 239. FIGURE 30 NATIVE CLAIM LANDS MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH TENTATIVE SELECTIONS -1977 D CIRI VILLAGE SELECTIONS D ~ If'· .. ,\ ~ ... ~·'" l·-·""' I I From: Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. April 1978. Phase I: Comprehensive Development Plan. Palmer, AK. p. 240. depend largely on the Native corporations policies. For a summary of land management activities and issues in the project area, see Subtask 7.07 1980 Annual Report. Land use planning powers in the Borough reside with the various land owners for the most part. The Borough, however, does exercise overall planning authority for all lands within its boundaries. Roughly half of the Borough is designated as a special use district. This area includes all of the Talkeetna Mountains north to the Alaska Range and project site. The designation permits multiple use of the lands within the district. The ordinance (79~35) states: "It is further the purpose to conserve the unspoiled beauty of the mountains and the alpine region, to be consistent with its historic and continued use as a mining district, and to aid wildlife habita·t while permitting resource development, recreation, grazing and related activities where appropriate." Passage of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act ANILCA) in December, 1980, had little impact on land within the Borough. The only Borough land affected was that near Mount McKinley National Park. Figure 31 shows the location for the proposed hydroelectric project, Borough boundaries and lands withdrawn in January 1979, as part of the ANILCA process. 3.8.2.2 Land Uses in the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier Census Division There are no organized boroughs and only a few incorporated cities (Valdez, Cordova, and Whittier) in this region. As such land use planning authority resides with the various land owners for much of the area. Private ownership of 1 and is 1 imited to mining claims, remote home sites, and portions of communities along the highways. 237 Ahtna, Inc., the regional native corporation and its affiliated village corporations, will eventually hold title to roughly 2 million acres in the region. As in the Mat-Su Borough, 1 and use and tenure issues are controversial matters. Access to and use of lands is perhaps the issue of greatest concern in the area. ANILCA established the Wrangell-Saint Elias National Park and Preserve in the region (See Figure 31), and classified the Middle Fork, Gulkana River, and parts of the Delta River as National Wild and Scenic Rivers. The passage of the ANILCA legislation is considered by many to be a positive step forward, primarily because it resolves (or begins to resolve) various issues which were uncertain before. Regulations con- cerning use of some of the lands remain to be formulated. Overall, the region is similar to the rural/remote areas of the Mat-Su Borough in that land use outside of the federal lands is primarily oriented toward dispersed activities, i.e; mining and recreation. Future use will be determined largely by Ahtna, Inc., the native village corporations, and the State. 3.9 -Recreation This section will focus upon the recreation resources and degrees of utilization which occur in Study Area 2, focusing on the Upper Susitna River basin. Study Area 2 includes Study Area 1 and, in a few instances, this section will deal with it specifically. 3.9.1 -Introduction Situated between the major population centers of Anchorage and Fairbanks, the Mat-Su Borough and Copper River-Wrangell Mountains area provides a wide range of recreational opportunities. As is true of Alaska in general, many of the recreation experiences available are unique in the nation. Endowed with vast natural resources supporting 238 FIGURE 31 FEDERAL LAND WITHDRAWALS IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA .. ··.·: .· :.:·:· .. . ' ....... . ··:·:·.·.·.·: .... . . . . · ... ,~' 239 Susitna River Wrangell-Saint Elias National Park and Preserve Mj ifJNew National Monuments ~ vJi 1 derness Study Areas (.·.::·./l Existing Federal Reserves D Other (includes private, state, and unallocated federal lands) many varieties and species of wildlife, Alaska offers numerous oppor- tunities for recreational activities. These activities are generally characterized by low intensity, low impact, resource-oriented uses. Hunting and fishing are the principal "consumptive" recreational acti- vities while sightseeing, backpacking, and climbing are examples of basically "non-consumptive" activities. In addition to these kinds of activities, recreation within the various corrmunities includes more socially oriented activities, e.g., baseball, ice skating, swimming, and basic socializing. 3.9.2 -Regional Recreation Areas The "largest" attraction in the region is Mount McKinley National Park and the surrounding Denali National Park and Preserve. The road entrance to the park is off the Parks Highway north of the Borough where a variety of services and accommodations are available. For climbing expeditions in the Park, Talkeetna serves as a primary take- off point. Chugach State Park, located 10 miles east of Anchorage, is a major recreation area for the metropolis. The park consists of 495,000 acres and offers camping, canoeing, fishing, hiking, and a variety of winter uses. The Denali State Park is the largest state park within the Borough. Consisting of 282,000 acres, the park is located west of the project site (Study Area 1). The Denali Master Plan calls for development of a range nf recreational facilities. Winter sports, including cross country skiing, dog mushing, ice skating, ice fishing, sledding, and snowmobi 1 i ng are planned or presently avai 1 able. Campgrounds, boat launches, picnic areas, and a visitor center are also provided or planned. Nancy Lake Recreation Area, 1 ocated just south of Will ow, is a 23,000 acre area of numerous 1 akes. The State Di vision of Parks plans to -240 develop the area into a major recreation area with extensive facilities including cabins, horse trails, camping, picnicing sites, and swimming beaches. The plan ultimately calls for a total of 1,760 camping units. The Lake Louise area in the southeastern part of the Borough is a major fishing, boating, and hunting area. The area is predominately in pri- vate ownership. Lake Louise feeds the Tyone River which is a tributary of the Upper Susitna. The Big Lake area between Wasi 11 a and Wi 11 ow has deve 1 oped into a recreation area mainly catering to persons from Anchorage who maintain summer cabins on the shores. Other pubic and private recreational developments in the Borough include roadside campgrounds and lodges, scenic pullouts, and hunting lodges in remote areas. Road transportation is the primary means of access to the aforemen- tioned areas. For more remote areas, boats, float planes and 1 i ght aircraft are often used. All-terrain-vehicles (ATVs) and snowmobiles have also become major modes of transportation, especially for hunting. Use of these vehicles is becoming more restricted, however, as hunting pressure increases and herds decrease. ATVs can also be very detrimen- tal to the fragile ecosystems of the area. 3.9.3 -Sport Fishing Many of the developed recreation areas in the Borough occur around bodies of water. This is due to the inherent aesthetic values as well as the activities available, i.e., fishing and boating. Throughout southcentral Alaska, sport fishing is a major recreational activity. Perhaps the most reknowned area is the Kenai Peninsula. Fishing pressure there has recently become so intense that fishermen 241 are practically elbow to elbow during the season. One result of this has been an increase in the use of alternative areas in the region. The Alaska Department of Fish & Game (ADF&G) estimates that 71 percent of the 1,285,063 angler days fished in Alaska in 1978 were spent in the Southcentral region. The Cook Inlet area (Anchorage, Knik Arm Drainage, East Susitna Drainage, West Cook Inlet -West Susitna Drainage, and the Kenai Peninsula) accounted for 752,966 angler days or 59 percent of the total State effort in 1978. The Kenai Penninsula itself had 521~498 or 41 percent of total angler ~ays fished. (Mills, 1980.) Data for four subareas of the Southcent ral region which incorporate Study Areas 1 and 2 are presented in Tables 72 through 76. These subareas are East Susitna Drainage, West Cook Inlet -West Susitna Drainage, Knik Arm Drainage, and Glenallen. Table 72 presents aggre- gated statistics for these areas by species~ In terms of number of fish harvested~ pink salmon, rainbow trout, and arctic grayling are the three most popular species for the combined area. A total of 244,887 angle days were expended in the area which constitutes 19 percent of the State total and 27 percent of the Southcentral effort. From 1977 to 1978, angler days spent in the area increased ten percent (ibid.). Fishing is a major recreational activity for both Alaska residents and non-residents. Approximately three-quarters of the estimated 206,185 anglers who fished in 1978 were residents. Thus, roughly 50,000 sport fishermen were visitors~ i.e., nonresidents. More than half of all sport fishermen in 1978 who were Alaska residents were from the Anchorage and Mat-Su Borough area (ibid.). It should be noted that the data presented here was gathered by means of a postal survey to random samples of Alaska sport fishing license holders. This data was corroborated using on-site creel surveys of random samples of fishermen. The data was then statistically adjusted 242 TABLE 72 SPORT FISH HARVEST BY SPECIES1 ESTIMATED RANK SPECIES SYMBOL2 NUMBER OF FISH HARVESTED 1 Pink Salmon PS 58,808 2 Rainbow Trout RT 46,453 3 A ret i c Grayling GR 42,226 4 Coho Salmon ss 27' 154 5 Land locked Coho Salmon LL 24,071 6 Dolly Varden, DV Artie Char AC 18,034 7 Chum Salmon cs 17,970 8 Bur bot BB 8,099 9 Lake Trout LT 7,413 10 Sockeye Salmon RS 4,746 l1 Chinook Salmon KS 4,184 12 Whitefish WF 3,634 13 Other 1,345 14 Northern Pike NP 316 15 Steel head SH 45 1For the following areas: East Susitna Drainage, East Cook Inlet -West Susitna Drainage, Knik Arm Drainage, and Glenallen. 2symbols are used to identify species in the following tables. 243 N .p. .p. TABLE 73 EAST SIDE SUSITNA DRAINAGE* SPORT FISH HARVESTS AND EFFORT BY FISHERY AND SPECIES, 1978 Days DV fJahed KS ss LL RS PS cs RT AC LT GR B8 Olher Willow Creek 22,682 41 90S 0 S6 18,901 2,4S8 913 280 0 208 9 21 Hontana•Creek 25 ,762 408 2,4SI 0 8S 15,619 4,429 1,191 6)] 0 958 9 27 Clear (Chunilna) Creek 5,040 12 2,200 0 28 2,014 1,912 1,501 1,817 0 8S9 21 0 Sheep Creek 11,869 256 478 0 14 6,981 1,697 470 108 0 461 18 9 Little Willow Creek 5,687 0 151 0 28 ],142 I ,OJS )14 61 0 114 0 0 Othus 14,970 161 2,388 2,368 56 3,994 2,692 1,519 2,139 871 3,110 208 90 GRAND TOTAL 86,010 886 8,513 2,368 267 50,111 14,203 5,930 5,640 811 6,600 271 151 *East Side Su$ltna Drainaae (Ares H): All East side drainages of lhc Susitna River below tts confluence with the Oshetna River. fish taken while fishing from the East bank of the Susitna River are Inc 1u•lcd in this area. Source: Mills, Michael J. July 1, 1979-June 30, 1980. Annual Performance Report for Alaska State- wide Sport Fish Harvest Studies, Vol. 21. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Sport Fish Division. Juneau, AK. p. 44. N -Po 01 TABLE 74 WEST SIDE COOK INLET-WEST SIDE SUSITNA RIVER DRAINAGE* SPORT FISH HARVESTS AND EFFORT BY FISHERY AND SPECIES, 1978. Days DV Fished KS** ss RS PS cs RT AC LT GR NP BB Othel" Dnhka Rlvel" 9, Ill 850 I, 798 0 697 0 J,6J4 0 0 579 0 0 72 Lalee Creek 8,767 326 2,212 254 2,833 1,015 2,721 154 36 2,115 9 45 18 Alrxandel" Cl"eek 6,914 769 2,401 183 1,146 215 2,640 ))6 0 1,871 0 0 181 Talachulltna Rlvrl" 732 12 88 141 Jl 234 0 235 0 99 0 0 0 Chult Rlvel' 1,185 408 277 0 155 0 443 461 0 0 0 0 0 Theodol"e Rlvel" 9os· 58 101 0 449 0 226 353 0 0 0 0 0 Lewh Rl"el' 172 12 0 0 46 0 54 27 0 0 0 0 0 Othel" Rhen 6,011 112 3,683 662 898 I ,171 1,528 1,220 0 1,953 0 72 6) Shell Lake )02 0 0 28 0 0 27 0 45 0 0 0 0 Vhhkey Liller 129 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jlew I tt Lake 172 0 0 0 0 0 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 Judd Lake lSI 0 0 70 0 0 0 371 0 0 0 0 0 Othel" J.aku 3,420 0 0 268 0 0 1,618 551 515 108 307 )6 36 GRAND TOTAL 38,771 2,517 10,560 1,634 6,255 2,6)5 1),018 J,508 596 6, 725 316 15) )70 Razol" Clams Total Diggins Days: 800 Total C1a111s Taken: )9 ,175 *Vest Side Cook Inlet-Vest Side Sucltnl! River Drainage (AI"ea N): All Vest aide Susltna River dralnaae• and all Vest aldr Coole Inlet "'a leu Southward .to Care Douglas. Fish takrn while fishing hom the West bank of the Susltna Rlvel" al"e included In thh al"ea. ·~Kings leas than 20 Inches. Source: Mills, Michael J. July 1, 1979-June 30, 1980. Statewide Sport Fish Harvest Studies, Vol. 21. Fish Division. Juneau, AK. p. 45. Annual Performance Report for Alaska Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Sport TABLE 75 KNIK ARM DRAINAGE* SPORT FISH HARVESTS AND EFFORT BY FISHERY AND SPECIES, 1978 Days DV Fhhed ICS ss LL RS PS cs RT AC LT GR BD Other LiLlie Suslln• River 12,127 93 4,86~ 0 859 1,~17 956 886 570 0 54 9 759 Wasilla Creek (Rabbit Slough) 3,446 47 2,112 0 0 219 59 45 325 0 0 0 0 • Finser Lake 11,502 0 0 8,~88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N Kepler La•e Comple111 5,730 0 0 298 0 0 0 5,180 0 0 985 0 0 .j:>o 0'1 Lucille Lake 4,803 0 0 4,963 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Big Lake 9,865 0 0 226 0 0 0 4,845 5,433 0 0 18 0 Nancy Lake Recreation Area, including Nan~y Lal<e 7,647 0 0 262 14 0 0 1,853 18 127 0 145 0 Olhen 20,420 0 918 4,547 366 ·46 117 10,330 I ,636 380 1,374 280 36 GRANO TOTAl. 75,540 140 7,895 18,884 1~239 1,842 \,132 23. IJ9 7,982 507 2,4JJ 452 795 •Knik Ar~ Orainase (Area K): All waterl inside the area bounded by the Little Susilna River on the North ~nd Weal and the Knik Arm on the South, lndudin& all drainagea of the llalanuska and Knik Rivers. (Boundary streams Included in the area). Source: Mi 11 s, Michael J. July 1 ' 1979 -June 30, 1980. Annual Performance Report for Alaska Statewide Sport Fish Harvest Studies, Vol. 21. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Sport Fish Division. Juneau, AK. p. 42. TABLE 76 GLENNALLEN* SPORT FISH HARVESTS AND EFFORT BY FISHERY AND SPECIES, 1978 llaya DV Fhhed JCS ss LL RS PS cs RT LT Sll AC GR wr DB Other Gulhna River 6,:no 606 0 0 662 0 0 1140 lB 0 0 1,4114 361 9 0 Lake Louise, Lake Susltna, Trone Lake 13,161 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,522 0 0 2,278 672 2,947 0 Van (Silver) Lake 1,335 0 0 1,074 0 0 0 461 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N .,f::o ....... Paxson Lake Summit Lake 6,111 0 0 0 0 0 0 316 1,085 0 0 1,474 114 307 18 Strelna Lake 495 0 0 1,058 0 0 0 190 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sculpin Lake 754 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,790 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crouwind Lake 2,800 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 714 0 0 651 2,004 868 0 Other Waters 13,334 JS 126 687 944 0 0 669 1,094 45 904 14,591 423 3,092 9 GR/IND TOT/It 44,566 641 126 2,819 1,606 0 0 4,366 5,433 45 904 26,488 3,634 7,223 27 •Glennallen (Area I): /Ill water• and drainages of the Oshetn.l River and the Copper River upstrealll Croll • line between the South bank of Haley Creek and the South bank of Canyon Creek In Woods Canyon, and Including the Upper Su~ltnil River draln•ge fro11 Ita conCluence with thr O~hrtna River.' Source: Mi 11 s, Mi chae 1 J. July 1, 1979 -June 30, 1980. Annual Performance Report for Alaska Statewide Sport Fish Harvest Studies, Vol. 21. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Sport Fish Division. Juneau, AK. p. 40. to provide estimates of overall harvest levels and effort. This data regarded by sport fish biologists as in providing effective estimates of sport fishing activity. (ibid.) 3.9.4 -Hunting Hunting is the major recreational activity in the region between the Talkeetna Mountains and the Alaska Range. The major species hunted are caribou, moose, and bear. Each of these species is briefly addressed below. For the purposes of this study, ADF&G 1 S Game Management Unit 13 will be used as the source of hunting data. When available, Subunit 13E, which corresponds more closely to Study Area 1, will be used as the rlevent data area. 3.9.4.1 -Caribou The caribou in the region near the project site are part of the Nelchina herd. This herd reached a peak population of about 70,000 in 1962 and a low of about 8,000 in 1972. Reasons for the decline include natural factors as well as intensive hunting. Current population esti- mates put the size of the herd at about 19,000. The following information is taken from the Alaska Wildlife Management Plans (Draft, 1980) page 81, published by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The Nelchina herd has been the most heavily sports-hunted caribou herd in Alaska since 1950. Harvests exceeded 4,000 caribou in most years from 1959 to 1971. Sharp restric- tions in hunting seasons and bag limits in 1972, from an eight-month season to a six-week season, and a 248 three caribou bag limit to one cari- bou, reduced the kill to about 600. The harvest increased to 800 in 1973 and to 1,200 in 1974. In 1975, a further reduction in season length to three weeks reduced the kill to about 800 caribou. Large harvests in the period 1967-1971 and propor- tionally large kills on a reduced population since 1972 can be attri- buted to increased access, greater use of all-terrain vehicles, and increased hunting pressure. Table 77 presents data on harvest totals, hunting effort and other variables for the Nelchina herd hunting effort since 1972. Since 1977 the number of permits has been substantially reduced and, correspon- dingly, the size of the herd has increased dramatically. (The popula- tion was estimated at 7,842 caribou in 1972 and 18,981 caribou in 1978). ADF&G received 5,600 permit applications and issued 1,300 per- mits to harvest Nelchina caribou during the 1980 season. Hunters har- vested 630 caribou. (See Tab 1 e 78; note that this includes parts of GMU 14)). ADF&G intends to allow the herd to increase to 20,000 ani- mals which will support an estimated 2,000 annual harvest. 3.9.4.2 -Moose Data for moose harvests, and hunting pressure are presented in Table 78 and 79 for game management Unit 13. This unit includes a large part of Study Area 2 including the project site. Since 1972, the moose harvest (as well as population) has remained fairly constant, accounting for approximately 20 percent of annual state harvests. Since the early 1970•s, increasingly restrictive regu- 249 N t.n 0 TABLE 77 NELCHINA HERD Reported Unit 13 caribou harvest by sex, residency of hunter, success ratios, and total extrapolated harvest, 1972-1978. Total Number reported Total extr. reported Success Number Number Resident Nonresident Year harvest harvest hunters ratio males _(_!>~cent) females {Percent) harvest harvest -----No. ! No. % 1972 555 N/A 1,586 34% 3~8 (72%) 153 (28%) 301 (56%) 237 (44%) 1973 629 810 1,982 32% 411 (67%) 203 (33%) 401 (68%) 187 (32%) 1974 1,036 1,192 2,550 41% 656 (66%) 343 (34%) 820 (82%) 181 (18%) 1975 669 806 1,991 34% 441 (69%) 201 (31%) 515 (80%) 126 (20%) 1976 776 822 1,807 43% 560 (74%) 201 (26%) 642 (85%) 117 (15%) 1977 360 580 62% 275 (78%) 77 (22%) 1978 539 747 72% 416 (79%) 111 (21%) 510 (95%) 25 (4%) PREPARED BY: Sterling Eide, Game Biologist III Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. March 1980. Annual Report of Survey-Inventory Activities, Part II, Bison, Caribou, Moose and Muskoxen. Juneau, AK. p. 33. TABLE 78 FALL 1979 DRAWING PERMIT APPLICATIONS Species Hunt # Season Dates Area & Game # Permits Total # Tota 1 # Percent Management to be Applications Harvested Successful Uni tl/ Issued Received Hunts Caribou 503 Aug. 20 -Units 13 & 1 ,300 5,600 630 48 (either sex) Sept. 20 14, except 14C Moose 910 Sept. 1 -Matanuska 200 2,740 97 48 (antl erl ess) Sept. 20 Valley -l4A 9ll Sept. 1 -Willow to 100 667 22 22 Sept. 20 Talkeetna - N 148 U1 ...... 913 Jan. 23 -Willow to 50 6,011 43 86 Feb. 6 Talkeetna Source: ADF&G records. 11 The Willow Subbasin encompasses southwest portion of 148 and· western half of 14A. From: Soil Conservation Service, et. al., December 1980. Susitna River Basin Study. Draft Report. p. 4-86. TABLE 79 MOOSE -GMU 13 Nelchina Basin A comparison of Annual Moose Harvest and Hunting Pressure, 1963-1978 Year Season 1963 Total 1964 Total 1965 Total 1966 Total 1967 1st 2nd Total 1968 1st 2nd Total 1969 1st 2nd Total 1970 1st 2nd Total 1971 1st 2nd Total 1972 1st 2nd Total 1973 Total 1974 Total 1975 Total 1976 Total 1977 Total (1977)****Tota1 1978 Total Male 1385 1213 1318 1336 1009 112 1217* 1013 171 1240* 817 87 1204* 746 271 1141*,** 703 205 1126* 559 39 689* 604 768 690 708 684 855 846 Female 343 394 3 181 319 0 319 243 0 243 0 7 7 56 58 220 333 338 670*** 5 2 7* 4 3 2 1 1 1 Unknown 7 0 10 36 16 29 8 8 14 8 30* 18 7 1 16* 10 23 23 23 13 16 Total 1735 1607 1331 1553 1552 1512 1219 1391 1814 712 618 794 715 732 698 855**** 863 Hunters 4163 4027 4476 2553 3535 4881 3199 2513 2770 2978 3122 2299 3698**** 3034 * Moose whose date of kill is unknown are included in the total. Percent Success 37 28 34 48 39 37 22 24 29 24 23 30 23 28 ** Adult, antlerless bulls killed during the late antlerless season are included. *** Data from antlerless permit returns. Harvest ticket returns indicated a female kill of 614. **** Extrapolated results to correct for absence of reminder letters in 1977. (Total= 855 ± 133, p = .OS; hunters= 3698 ± 1,080, p = .05). PREPARED BY: Sterling Eide, Game Biologist III Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. March 1980. Annual Report of Survey-Inventory Activities, Part II, Bison, Caribou, Moose and Muskoxen. Juneau, AK. p. 105. 252 lations have been adopted in an attempt to limit the harvest in the face of increasing effort. Currently, the bag limit reads, 11 0ne bull having an antler spread of at least 36 inches or at least 3 brow tines on one antler.11 In light of the demand for permits (to hunt antlerless moose) in 1979, as evidenced from data for the Willow subbasin where more than ten times the number of available permits were applied for, the moose resource in Southcentral Alaska is being fully utilized and cannot meet existing demand. (See Table 78). As with caribou, practically all hunters are residents of Alaska. 3.9.4.3 -Bear The two species of bear hunted in Unit 13 are brown and black bear. Brown bears are the targeted species, whi 1 E: black bears are most often taken incidentally. Tables 80 and 81 present harvest data for each species. Several characteristics of bear hunting activities are noteworthy. Foremost is the fact that many fewer bear are taken and fewer hunters involved than for either caribou or moose. Of the hunters many are non-residents. It is likely that this is a result of the fact that fewer non-residents can participate in hunting other species and that brown bear are often hunted as trophies. Bear are a 1 so often taken incidentally by hunters after caribou or moose. 3.9.4.4 -Other Species In the 1978 -1979 season 69 wolves, 59 wolverines, '68 lynx, and 17 otter were taken in Unit 13. With the possible exception of wolves, these species are primarily utilized for commercia1 purposes and pri- marily taken by trapping methods. 253 N U1 ~ TABLE 80 BLACK BEAR HARVEST DATA, GAME MANAGEMENT UNIT 13, 1973-1978 r~o. kill~ Percent Regulatory Total No. Percent by Mean skull Percent salvaging year kill males males nonres. size males(mm) incidental kill meat Season and bag limit 1973 69 42 61 34 411 3 bears; provided that the taking of cubs or females accompanied by cubs is prohibited. No closed season. 1974 50 32 64 10 413 Same 1975 71 47 66 15 429 Same 1976 60 38 63 13 425 48 55 Same 1977 58 37 64 10 421 41 52 Same 1978 64 41 68 11 419 39 64 Same PREPARED BY: Robert Tobey, Game Biologist II Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. December 1979. Annual Report of Survey-Inventory Activities, Part I, Black Bear, Brown Bear, and Polar Bear. Juneau, AK. p. 36. TABLE 81 UNIT 13 Brown bear sport harvest summary by year, sex of bear, residency of hunter, and length of season. Calendar Total No. of No. of % of % of No. of No. by % by Length of Year Kill** Males Females Males* Females* Unknown Nonres. Nonres. season 1961 0041 020 020 050% 050% 001 025 061% 30 days 1962 0034 021 013 062% 038% 000 019 056% 30 days 1963 0041 021 019 053% 048% 001 026 063% 30 days 1964 0036 015 020 043% 057% 001 023 064% 30 days 1965 0044 025 018 058% 042% 001 021 048% 30 days 1966 0063 033 026 056% 044% 004 041 065% 30 days 1967 0031 016 014 053% 047% 001 014 045% 30 days 1968 0038 018 019 049% 051% 001 018 047% 21 days 1969 0017 015 002 088% 012% 000 008 047% 31 days N 1970 0027 018 008 069% 031% 001 015 056% 21 days (J'I (J'I 1971 0072 032 035 048% 052% 005 044 061% 35 days 1972 0048 028 020 058% 042% 000 025 052% 31 days 1973 0044 026 017 060% 040% 001 026 059% 31 days 1974 0072 040 031 056% 044% 001 034 047% 40 days 1975 0080 043 031 058% 042% 006 037 046% 40 days 1976 0059 028 025 053% 047% 006 023 039% 40 days 1977 0038 031 007 082% 018% 000 012 032% 40 days 1978 0063 036 025 059% 041% 002 028 044% 40 days TOTALS 0848 0466 0350 0057% 0043% 0032 0439 052% * All perc~ntages are based on total known sex bears. ** Harvest totals for previous years may change as late sealing certificates are added. PREPARED BY: Lee Miller, Game Technician V Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. December 1979. Annual Report of Survey- Inventory Activities, Part I, Black Bear, Brown Bear, ·and Polar Bear. Juneau, AK. p. 95. In the 1978 -1979 season, 77 sheep were harvested from Units 13 and 14. The majority of the sheep came from the Talkeetna Mountains area. Hunting pressure has been fairly constant over the past decade averaging about 300 hunters per year. 3.9.5 -Boating and Kayaking Much of the boating activity occurring in the waterways of the region is associated with fishing or hunting, i.e., a means of transportation. Some pH~asure boating occurs in the more developed recreation areas. Kayaking, canoeing, and rafting occur throughout the region where feasible. All levels of difficulty can be found, the pinnacl€ of which is the Devil Canyon run. Few individuals have dared the whitewater. Cole in his History of the Use of Upper Susitna River; Indian River to the Headwaters (Cole, 1979), recounts the various expeditions which attempted to pass through the canyon. Most d1d not succeed though they escaped with few serious injuries. The fol'lowing paragraph describing the whitewater resource in the region is taken from the study done for the Army Corps of Engineers by Jones & Jones in 1975. Not only does much of the Upper Susitna River occupy a stream-cut valley, but the rapids in Devil •s Canyon are so excep- tionally violent and spectacular as to constitute a nearly unique aethestic and recreational resource. Most Alaskan rivers occupy broad glacially scoured valleys, and whitewater beyond class III is rare (conversations with members of the U.S.D.I. Alaska Task Force respon- sible for recomnendations on additions to 256 the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System, 1974). Only three major whi- tewater rivers are known in Alaska: the Susitna and the Bremner in the Southcentral Region, and the Alsek in the Southeast. All are class VI rivers (I.A.C. rating), at the limit of naviga- bility, and cannot be attempted without risk of life. All three are glacial rivers; the near-freezing water and its opacity further add to the danger posed by the turbulence of.their rapids. The Susitna and Alsek were recently both suc- cessfully kayaked by Dr. Walt Blackadar for the first time. It is not known if anyone has yet attempted the Bremner, a tributary of the Copper. According to whitewater boaters, the characteristics of the three are quite different, although equally violent. The Bremner is a small, steep river in an exceptionally narrow slot-like gorge; the Alsek is a short, very steep, turbulent river; the Susitna has a relatively flat gradient and owes its violence to its great volume, the constriction of its channel in Devil 1 s Canyon, and the rocky obstruc- tions in its bed. Blackadar has described Devil 1 s Canyon as much more. difficult than the Grand Canyon and as the "Mount Everest" of kayaking (Anchorage Daily Times, March 28, 1973). Dr. Blackadar also wrote a letter to the Corps responding to the draft environmental impact statement concerning the Susitna hydroelectric 257 project describing in detail his trip through the canyon. Apparently there are certain sections which have never been traversed by anyone. 3.9.6 -Miscellaneous Recreational Activities As referred to in other parts of this section numerous recreational activities occur in the region. Readers are referred to the Susitna Basin Land Use/Recreation Atlas for de-tailed locations and types of these activities. Activities not previously mentioned include berry picking, bird watching, hang gliding, rock hunting, and off-road driving. Suffice it is to say that the interior southcentral region of Alaska offers a variety of recreational activities, albeit many are highly seasonal. 3.9.7-Related Businesses Air taxi services, lodges, and guides comprise the businesses which directly service remote hunting and fishing activities. Air taxi ser- vices operate out of many of the communities within the region. Lodges can be divided into two groups; remote and non-remote. The latter would be readily accessible by road, whereas the former would require ATv•s or planes for access. Lodges usually cater to visitors and pro- vide package trips. There are 49 guides for Unit 13, each of which has an exclusive area. Additionally, about 250 other guides are registered to conduct trips in the unit although they must receive permission from those who have exclusive areas. These figures give the impression that many guided hunting trips occur when in fact they are a small percentage of total trips. As noted previously, most moose and caribou hunting is con- ducted by residents. Residents in general do not use guides. In addition to those mentioned above, numerous other businesses in the Borough are involved with recreation/tourism related activities. These 258 range fr.om real estate to grocery stores. In the Mat-Su Borough the overall impact on the economy is substantial. This relative dependence on recreation and tourism is a major cause for the seasonal nature of employment in the Borough and helps explain why the service sector is relatively large. 3.10-Methodology Development During 1980, all relevant forecasting models used regularly or occasionally by Alaska institutions and other potent·ially relevant models and studies, whether specific to the Alaska economy or not, were identified and infor- mation concerning them was collected. Next, the following evaluation cri- teria were developed: -time and cost restraints (e.g., utilizing an existing Alaska-specific model would probably be more cost-effective than using a 1 ower 48 model); -need for a model that assesses both quantitative and qualitative factors in a theoretically rigorous manner and meets or exceeds -generally acceptable standards for similar types of impact assess- ments; need for a model capable of assessing impacts at the 11 micro level .. (Study Areas 1 and 2 in Figure 3) and the 11 macro level 11 (Study Areas 3 and 4 in Figure 3); and -need for a model flexible with respect to data needs, both in terms of availability of data on a given topic and in terms of the availability of time-series data for a particular variable. (It will be very important to coordinate the application of this screening factor with the data identification, collection, and compilation efforts of Work Packages 1 and 2). These cr-iteria were applied to each relevant or potentially relevant model or study. A matrix was developed to facilitate comparison of models and methods. Based on this analysis, it was concluded that the primary 259 approach to forecasting would be causal (i.e., where the level of one variable, the "causal variable," determines the level of another variable, the "forecasted variable"). It was further determined that time series or trend analysis, and qualitative (judgemental) analysis would serve as sup- porting approaches, where appropriate. With respect to a type of causal model, two types remained under con- sideration at the close of 1980. These were economic base and econometric models. Severa 1 methodological structures for an economic base model are being developed. The advantages and disadvantages of each alternative structure are to be weighed against the advantages and disadvantages asso- ciated with the existing, or a modified, Man in the Arctic Program (econometric) model. 260 4-IMPACT ASSESSMENT 4 -IMPACT ASSESSMENT During the first year of Phase I, the only preliminary impact assessment that was conducted was in regard to alternative access routes. A discussion of this assessment is provided in Subsection 4.1. In addition, some issues and concerns relating to construction and operation impacts of hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin are discussed in Subsection 4.2. 4.1 -Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Assessment for Alternative Access Routes In the fall of 1980, Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. was requested to address and analyze the issue of potential socioeconomic impacts in con- nection with three access corridors proposed by R&M Consultants, Inc. The following is a preliminary analysis of this issue. It is FO&A, Inc.'s professional judgment that the impacts will vary in both magnitude and area of concentration depending on which corridor or com- hi nation of corridors is chosen. To faci 1 it ate a better understanding of the access corridors 1, 2, and 3, they have been defined in terms of "access route combinations". The analysis is based on the impacts which would arise from the entire project, and not solely on a particular access route regarded in isolation. Therefore, it was deemed necessary to develop access route combinations based on the mode of transportation to be used and its connection with existing transportation facilities. It is understood that there would be differences in the very local socioeconomic impacts associated with the different access routes and corridors. These, however, are either obvious (e.g., the road would pass in close proximity to one of the lodges in the area or by an existing mining claim) and/or are too small to be considered in a cost effective manner. The different access route combinations are illustrated in Figure 32 and are defined as: (a) Access routes by a new road from the west; (corridor 1) Chulitna north of Susitna River to Devil Canyon and north of Susitna River NOTE: Please refer to the Erratum that precedes the Summary of this report. 263 FIGURE 32 ACCESS ROUTE SCHEMATIC FOR SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Devil •s "'0 \] 10 0 s... Canyon ..-.,.... Site 10 0::: rtl ..:.t:. Ill 10 ..- c:t: Parks Highway Denali Highway 0 watana Site Access Route 1 · \7 D "A" r-v Acces~c~oute i II I I I '\j I I I I I 0 Access Route no" Access Route ~ liE II ---- 264 ---0-e~~hway Denali Highway 0/ >, 10 3: .s::; Ol .,.... :c s::: 0 Ill "'0 s... rtl .s::; u .,.... 0::: to Watana, or (corridor 2) Chulitna, south of Susitna River to Devil Canyon, and south of Susitna River to Watana. (b) Access route utilizing existing railroad connecting .with a new road to Devil Canyon and Watana (corridor 2). {c) Access route utilizing existing railroad connecting with a new railroad to Devil Canyon and Watana (corridor 2). {d) Access route by a new road from the North, Denali Highway, to Watana and possibly Devil Canyon {corridor 3). {e) Access routes by existing railroad connecting with a new road from the west to Devil Canyon {corridor 2) and by a new road from the north to Watana (corridor 3). The analysis is predicated on several assumptio~s, one of which is that there wi 11 not be an enclave with a broad range of services at the pro- ject site, and that labor commuting patterns will develop as a function of access'ibility to the dam sites. It is also assumed that if the access is from the west, whether a road connecting with the Parks Highway or a rail spur off the existing railroad, the port of entry would be Anchorage, and impacts would be concentrated on the "west si de 11 • The west side is defined as Anchorage, Matanuska-Susi tna, Seward, Kenai-Cook Inlet, and the southeast portion of Yukon-Koyukuk census divisions. The areas of greatest concentration are the Parks highway and Railroad corridor. However, if the access corridor were from the Denali Highway, then it is assumed that the port of entry would be Valdez. In this scenario more impacts would occur on the 11 east side 11 • The east side is defined as the City of Valdez and the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier Census Division, and the western portion of the Southeast Fairbanks Census division, (primarily the Richardson Highway and eastern portion of the Denali Highway). {See Figure 33). 265 d\.. d p;» t> 0 • . FIGURE 33 CENSUS DIVISIONS BY EAST AND WEST DEFINITION \ \ I Fairbanks Valdez I I WEST SIDE ~ EAST SIDE Based on the above premises, an extensive literature review, and pro- fessional judgment, the susceptible socioeconomic conditions and variables were examined for impact magnitude per each access route combination. This was done for the east and west sides, as well as for the fifth-combination "E" where the impacts are dispersed over both the east and west sides. A subjective numerical scale of 1 to 5 was used, with 5 representing a great impact and 1 a small or negligible impact. The numerical scale does not correspond to a quantitative measure, but rather is a scoring system used to delineate the relative magnitudes of impacts. Relative refers here to the socioeconomic base upon which the impact will occur. Thus, for the east side, in general the impacts are rated fairly high because of its relatively less developed socioeconomic base. This analysis is a -process by which to examine the direct and indirect impacts on existing facilities and demands on those facilities, not induced impacts. For instance, the attractiveness of an increased and, perhaps, a less expensive power supply for industry, and the impacts associated with such changes have not been considered in our impact analysis. Examination of Table 82 reveals certain patterns that have developed as a result of the socioeconomic variables being analyzed in this manner. Generally, if access corridor "A 11 is chosen, then the impacts will be concentrated on the west side, and few impacts of any significant magni- tude will occur on the east side. This is viewed as the result of an easily accessible corridor, a road connection to the Parks Highway, for construction materials, equipment, and labor sources, and for post- construction alternative uses of the Susitna Basin. The impacts to the west associated with access combination "B" are generally less than those of ''A" because of the more restrictive nature of rail, rather than road, as the initial link. The fact that there is a roadhead at the railroad as opposed to the Parks Highway will limit access, and thereby reduce the impacts. As with combination "A", the impacts upon the east side with combination "B" are assumed to be minor. 267 TABLE 82 POTENTIAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE ACCESS ROUTE COMBINATIONS, BY SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT CATEGORY 1 West Side IMPACT CATEGORY A B C Population Levels 5 4 5 Ethnicity~ Reliqion 1 1 1 Culture/Way of Life 2 2 2 Community, Social, and Political Organi-5 4 4 zations/Facilities Housing -Ty_g_e 3 2 2 Housing -Availability 5 4 4 Public Services 5 3 3 Government Revenues 5 4 4 Total Labor Demand 5 4 5 Unemployed Labor 5 4 4 Economic Base: Construction 5 4 5 Mining 3 2 2 Agriculture 1 1 1 Forestry 3 2 2 Manufacturinq 3 3 3 Fisheries (Commercial) 1 1 1 Oil and Gas 1 1 1 Transportation-Motor 4 2 2 -Rail 2 4 5 Public Utilities 4 3 3 Communications 2 2 2 Wholesale Trade 5 4 4 Retai 1 Trade 5 3 3 Services 5 3 3 Tourism/Recreation 5 3 2 0 A 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 East Side B C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -- 0 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 3 3 1 1 4 1 5 3 5 5 5 5 East/West E 4 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 3 1 1 4 3 4 2 4 4 4 5 1 Socioeconomic conditions are described by socioeconomic categories. Each category is further described by socioeconomic variables. Socioeconomic categories and variables are shown in Appendix C. NOTE: A subjective numerical scale is used in which 5 represents a great impact and 1 a small or negligible impact. 268 Combination 11 C11 represents an access route that is essentially the same as 11 8 11 from a socioeconomic standpoint. The major differences appear to be engineering and physical/biological/chemical in nature • ._ There are deviations from this pattern, however, which are illustrated by the categories, total labor demand and rail transportation. Since the construction of a railroad is assumed to be more labor intensive than the construction of a road, these categories witness an increase in impact. A decrease in impact magnitude is exhibited in mining, due to the more restrictive access associated with rail. Access combination 11 0" shifts the impacts from the west side to the east side, which is displayed by a substantial decrease in relative magnitu- des under column D on the west side, and a dramatic increase in relative magnitudes on the east side. As aforementioned, this is due to the assumption that marine, and perhaps, air access will be through Valdez and that the Richardson Highway will be the haul road. Even with such a shift, impacts are sti 11 witnessed on the west side because it is believed that industry and labor pools along the Parks Highway will con- tinue to be utilized. Access combination .. E.. appears to have the greatest impacts associ a ted with it, due to the fact that they wi 11 be dispersed over a greater area, as opposed to being concentrated in any one area. Not all categories conform to these generalities. Some categories will be impacted, or not impacted regardless of which access corridor is chosen, and are essentially composed of 11 i ndependent.. variables. For example, categories such as housing availability, total labor demand, unemployed labor, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and services will all be greatly impacted on the west side, independent of which access corridor is chosen. Whereas categories such as agriculture, fisheries (commercial) and oil and gas, on the other hand, will be impacted negligibly regardless of the access route. 269 It was FO&A, Inc.•s intention to delineate the impacts most likely to occur with the implementation of any one access route combination, and to exhibit their relative magnitudes. These goals were realized and are displayed in Table 82. However, since it was necessary to examine the large quadrangle from Anchorage and Valdez north to Fairbanks, the focus was very broad and - the more localized categories such as land ownership, sport and subsistence fishing, and mining claims were not addressed in this analysis. The analysis is not as rigorous as had previously been envisioned due pri- marily to the limitations imposed by unanswered questions. Those hurdles were partially overcome by making assumptions. Before a more concrete ana- lysis can be undertaken attempts should be made to address questions such as: Will there be an enclave where all services are provided? Or w-ill workers commute and seek services in existing coiiiT!uniti es? Or some other combination? -Would the port at Valdez be utilized as opposed to Anchorage if the access route were from the Denali Highway? -What are the goals for the project site during and after construction? Should access be restrictive during construction? After canst ruction? -What is the intent of the project? What relative weights will be placed on economic and social benefits/costs? (End of memorandum) Finally, some of the impact analysis for alternative access corridors is relevant, by gross inference, to the impact analysis for a selected hydroelectric plan. The reader is referred to the last column·in Table 81. By looking down this column, one can compare relative socioeconomic impact magnitudes for each of the various socioeconomic categories. Those cate- gories with higher values wi 11 be substantially impacted whi 1 e those with 270 lower values will be impacted only slightly, if at all, by the selected hydroelectric project plan. Since engineering and engineering-economic information was not used by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. ir¥-the access corridor analysis, nor in this inference method used to approxi~ate impacts for a selected hydroelectric project plan, these results are highly preli- minary. Preliminary impacts for the alternative as well as selected hydroelectric project plans will be developed during 1981. 4.2 -Issues and Concerns Relating to Dam Construction and Operation As indicated above, certain factors will substantially influence the geographic distribution and magnitude of socioeconomic impacts. Some of the more important factors are the following: -the type of access route; -the type and amount of public and private uses intended for the project site(s) and access routes and adjacen~/nearby land; -the existence of an enclave with a broad range of services at or very near the construction site(s) or the existence of a construction camp with minimal services (i.e., some workers would comnute to thesite and many workers would seek services in nearby communities); -the amount and timing of in-migration into Study Area 2 and com- munities in Study Area 2 resulting from project-generated demand for labor; -the values of in-migrants relative to residents; -the number of persons (relatives) that accompany in-migrants; -The propensity of in-migrants to reside in Study Area 2 after their project jobs terminate; and -the amount and timing of the project•s demand for locally-produced goods and services. A very preliminary impact analysis was conducted at the outset of Work Package 2. While the primary purpose of this analysis was to serve as a 271 guide for choosing variables to include in the baseline socioeconomic profiles, it also indicates which variables are most susceptible to change as a result of dam construction and/or operation. A"description and the results of this analysis are presented in Appendix B. The important point to remember in reviewing these results is that assump- tions were explicitly or implicitly made concerning each of the above factors. These assumptions had a definite influence on the geographic distribution and relative degree of impacts. The factors give rise to issues, and the issues can create concerns. To illustrate this, consider the following example. Suppose that: -the access route is a road from the Parks Highway to the Devil Canyon and Watana sites; - a large amount of public and private use of the project sites and access road and adjacent/nearby land is permitted; there are small construction camps at each project site; in-migration to the Mat-Su Borough (particularly Talkeetna) is substantial: the values of the in-migrants differ substantially from those of the residents of Talkeetna and the Mat-Su Borough in general; and each worker brings two relatives (immediate family); -there is a low propensity for workers to remain in the Borough after the project jobs end. Given these assumptions, the following could occur in Talkeetna: -population could double, triple, or even quadruple; -great demands could be placed on community facilities and public services, housing, the existing employed and unemployed labor pool, etc.; -sectors of the economic base such as construction, wholesale and retail trade, services and tourism/recreation could change signifi- cantly or face substantial pressures to change; and -ethnicity, religion, and the culture/way of life could be significantly altered. 272 These same impacts waul d accrue, albeit to a lesser extent, to other communities along or near the Parks Highway. The above list of exemplary impacts is not comprehensive nor.;:is it sup- ported by substantial analysis. The reason for listing these potential impacts is to show that the factors give rise to issues. Some of the key issues are: -what access route or combination of access routes results in the most desirable distribution and magnitudes of socioeconomic impacts? -what type and amount of public and private use of the project site(s) and access route and adjacent/nearby land provides for the desired impacts? -is an enclave or construction camp desirable? -can the timing of the demand for labor be changed and, if so, what is the most desirable labor schedule? what types and amounts of construction supplies and services wi 11 be purchased locally? These issues are interdependent. They must be addressed and resolved as such. Associated with each issue will be concerns. These concerns will usually be expressed and voiced by persons who oppose or favor substantial changes in the status quo (i.e., substantial changes in socio-economic variables and conditions). The issues must be resolved by considering concerns that arise and this also needs to be done in an interdependent manner. 273 5-MITIGATION 5 -MITIGATION The location and magnitude of potential socioeconomic impact~ associated with canst ruction and operation of an access route ( s), a dam ( s), and transmission facilities will be influenced by the decisions made with respect to each of the issues presented in Subsection 4.2. At present, mitigation planning to avoid or minimize potentially adverse socioecono- mic impacts (i.e., potentially large changes in the forecasted baseline conditions resulting from construction and/or operation of hydroelectric and related facilities) should include consideration of the preliminary impacts, factors and issues presented in Subsection 4.2. In particular, one should consider the different locations and relative magnitudes of potential impacts associated with "west side" versus "east side" access. It should be apparent from Table 81 that the location and relative magnitudes for almost every impact ca~egory vary considerably depending upon which "side" is chosen for access. It should also be apparent from the Table that choosing "west side" access (instead of "east side" access) will result in minimizing large changes in impact categories (See Figure 32 for descriptions of "west" and "east" side accesses). Thus, choosing "west side" access could be considered a mitigation measure in itself. Further, choosing access combination B on the west side would result in the least change in impact categories. Access combination C (west side) would result in slightly larger changes in impact categories than access combination B (west side). These larger changes could be con- sidered "positive" because they involve hi ring more 1 abor, particularly for railroad construction. It should be recalled that the impact analysis for alternative access routes was preliminary. It was preliminary because two essential ingredients, detailed engineering and engineering-economic infor- mation, and the forecasts of socioeconomic conditions with· and without hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin, were not available for utilization in the analysis. At present, mitigation planning should also consider minimizing irrever- sible effects on socioeconomic resources. Two examples are existing and 277 potential mining claims and recreational fishing areas in the vicinity of the alternative impoundment zones. The dam(s) should be sited and designed with these resources in mind. 278 6-REFERENCES 6 -REFERENCES 6.1 -Introduction The following is a list of sources examined and utilized in the ~evelop­ m~nt of the Susitna hydroelectric project socioeconomic profile •. They are arranged into three sections: 6.2 -Energy Development Impact Studies; 6.3 -Data; and 6.4 -Methodologies. Sources that have been cited in the text are denoted by an asterisk in the left column. 6.2 -Energy Development Impact Studies Community Development Services~ Inc. October 1976. Socioeconomic Impact Study WPPSS 1 and 4~ Vol. 1: First Progress Report. Seattle~ WA 144 pp. (prepared for Washington Public Power Supply System). ColTITlunity Development Services~ Inc. Socioeconomic Impact Study WNP 1 and 4, Vol. 4. Final Report. Seattle~ WA. 157 pp. (prepared for Washington Public Power Supply System.) Community Development Services, Inc. September, 1978. Socioeconomic for Washington Public Power Supply System.) ColTJTlunity Development Services, Inc. October 1975. An analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of WNP-3 and WNP-5. Seattle~ WA. 121 pp. (prepared for Washington Public Power Supply System.) Flynn~ C.B. and J.A. Chalmers. January 1980. The Social and Economic Effects of the Accident at Three Mile Island: Findings to Date. Mountain West Research, Inc. Tempe, AZ 85282. 99 pp. Idaho Power Company. January 1980. Application for License: Project No. 2848: Cascade Hydroelectric Project. Boise, ID. Information Resources Press. 1977-1980. EIS -Digest of Environmental Impact Statements. Arlington, VA 22209. Vol. 1-#1 -Vol. 4-#3. International Engineering Company~ Inc.~ Robert W. Retherford Associates Di vision. December 1979. Tyee Lake Hydroelectric Project -Peters- burg & Wrangell, Alaska: Application for License Before the Federal Regulatory Conmi ss ion for the Alaska Power Authority. . Anchorage~ AK 99502. 2 vols. Jones~ V.K. September 1978. Payments to the Public Sector for Construction of a Nuclear Generating Station: A Case Study of Washington Public Power Supply Systems Projects WNP-3 and WNP-5. Washington Public Power Supply System, Richland~ WA. 43 pp. 281 Matchett, Suzanne et a 1. October 1980. Copper Creek Project Draft Environmental Impact Statement Support Document: Human Environment. pp. 95. Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Batten e Human Affairs Resear€ih Centers. May 1979. Beluga Coal Field Development: Social Effects and Management Alternatives. (prepared for U.S. Department of Energy). Seattle City Light. January 1981. Copper Creek Project: Draft and Final Environmental Impact Statement. Seattle, WA. Seattle City Light. August 1980. South Fork Tolt River Hydroelectric Project: Draft SEPA En vi ronmenta 1 Impact Statement. FERC Project 2959. Washington. 349 pp. U.S. Bureau of Power, Federal Power Commission. March 1977. Bad Creek Project No. 2740-South Carolina: Final Environmental Impact Statement. Washington, DC. 361 pp. U.S. Department of Energy, Bonnevi 11 e Power Admi ni strati on. March 1980. Boardman Coal Plant and Associated Transmission, Adopted Rural Electrification Administration: Final EIS (USDA-REA-EIS-77-4F). Washington, DC 20545. n.p. U.S. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. March 1978. Solomon Gulch Project No. 2742-Alaska: Final Environmental Impact Statement. Washington, DC 20545. n.p. U.S. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. December 1978. Terror Lake Hydroelectric Project, Kodiak Island, Alaska: Application for License before Federal Energy Regulatory Corrrnission for Kodiak Electrical Association, Inc. Washington, DC 20545. n.p. U.S. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. February 1979. Green Lake Project No. 2818-Alaska: Final Environmental Impact Statement. Washington, DC. 189 pp. U.S. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. November 1979. North Fork Stanislaus River Project No. 2049 -California: Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Washington, DC. 223 pp. u.s. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. April 1980. Sultan River Project No. 2157 -Washington, Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Washington, DC 20426. n.p. U.S. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. April 1980. Swan Lake Project No. 2911-Alaska: Final Environmental Impact Statement. Washington, DC 20545. n.p. 282 U.S. Department of the Army, New England Division, Corps of Engineers. August 1977. Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes: Environmental Impact Statement. Waltham, MA n.p. ? U.S. Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers, New Engl an4 Division. September 1978. Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project at Dickey, Maine: Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Waltham, MA 02154. 11 vols. u.s. Department of the Army, Office of the Chief of Engineers. January 1977. Hydroelectric Power Development, Upper Susitna River Basin, Southcentral Railbelt Area, Alaska: Final Environmental Impact Statement. Washington, DC 20545. 398 pp. U.S. Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers. March 1977. Marysville Lake Project, Yuba River, California: Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Sacramento, CA. 358 pp. Washington Public Power Supply System. January 1980. Satsop Construction Report Quarterly Socioeconomic Report of WNP-3/5 Vol. 3, Report No. 4. October 1, 1979 to December 31, 1979. Seattle, WA. Washington Public Power Supply System. January 1, 1980 to March 31, 1980. Satsop Construction Project Quarterly· Socioeconomic Report of WNP-3/5 Vol. 4, Report No. 1. Richland, WA. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Environmental Systems Department. December 1974. Socioeconomic Effects of Construction and Operations of WNP-3 and WNP-5 and Alternatives to Alleviate Adverse Effects. Pittsburg, PA. n.p. 283 6.3 -Data Agricultural Experiment Station, School of Agriculture"' and Land Resources Management and the Institute of Social arid Economic Research, University of Alaska. 1978. Yukon-Porcupipe Regional Planning Study. Fairbanks, AK. n.p. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Enterprise. Various Reporting System. Juneau, AK. Economic quarterly Development, Division of issues. Information & *Alaska Department of Commerce & Economic Development, Economic Enterprise (Prepared by Parker Research Division of Corporation). December, 1977. Visitor Census and Expenditure Survey, 1977, Winter, 1976-1977. Juneau, AK. 31 pp. *Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. July 1978. and Economic Jobs and Power for Alaska, A Program for Power Development. Juneau, AK. n.p. *A 1 ask a Department of Commerce Economic Enterprise. 1979. and Economic Development, Division Numbers. Juneau, AK. 127 pp. of Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. The Performance Report of the Alaska Economy in 1979. Juneau, AK. Volume Eight. 32 pp. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1979. An Assessment of the Domestic Market for Alaska Wood Products. Juneau, AK. 32 pp. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1979. What You Never Thought to Ask About Mining. Juneau, AK. 28 pp. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Economic Enterprise. February 1980. Juneau, AK. n.p. Development, Division of Community Project Matrix. *Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise. June 1980. The Alaska Statistical Review 1980. Juneau, AK. n.p. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Economic Enterprise and U.S. Department Research Service. April 1977. Alaska Survey.· Juneau, AK. 22 pp. 284 Development, Division of of Agriculture Economic Farm Cost of Production Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Energy and Power Deve 1 opment. 1980. Resources Planning Project, Phase 2, Development. (Prepared for D.O.E. Assessment.) n.p. Development, Division of Alaska Regional Energy Vol. II, Hydroelectric Office of Environmental ~laska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Occupational Licensing, Guide Licensing and Control Board. August 1980. State of Alaska Guide Register 1980. Juneau, AK. Alaska Department of Community and Regional Pipeline Corridor Smaller Communities Survey. Affairs. July 1973. Juneau, AK. Alaska Department of Community Planning. Alaska Communities, pp. Community and Regional Affairs, Division of March 1974. Selected 1970 Census Data for Part V -Southcentral Alaska. Juneau, AK. 60 Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Community Planning, February 1976. Report of FY 75 Trans-Alaska Pipeline Impact Expenditures by state and local governments. Juneau,, AK. 34 pp. *Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Local Government Assistance. January 1980. Alaska Taxable 1979 Municipal Property Assessments and Equalized Full Value Determinations. Juneau, AK. 135 pp. Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Local Government Assistance. City Financial Reporting Manual, FY 1980. Juneau, AK. *A 1 as ka Department of Education. December 59. pp. 1980. 1980-1981 Alaska Education Directory. Juneau, AK. *Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. December 1979. Annual Report of Survey-Inventory Activities, Part I, Black Bear, Brown Bear, and Polar Bear. Juneau, AK. 115 pp. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game, Alaska Board of Game. 1980. Alaska Game Management Units. Juneau, AK. Map. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game, Alaska Board of Game. 1980. Alaska Hunting Regulations. No. 21. Juneau, AK. 71 pp. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game, Alaska Board of Game. 1980. Alaska Trapping Regulations. No. 21. Juneau, AK. 58 pp. *Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. Annual Report of Survey-Inventory Activities, Part Caribou, Moose and Muskoxen. Juneau, AK. 197 pp. 285 March 1980-. II, Bison, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. June 1980. Annual Report of Survey-Inventory Activities, Part III, Deer, Elk, Marine Mammals, Mountain Goats, and Sheep. Juneau, AK. 107 pp. ~ Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game. June 1~80. Annual Report of Survey-Inventory Activities, Part IV, Furbearers, Upland Game, Wolf, and Wolverine. Juneau, AK. 111 pp. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Sport Fish, Alaska Board of Fisheries. 1980. 1980 Alaska Sport Fishing Seasons and Bag Limits. Juneau, AK. 80 pp. Alaska Department of Fish and Game. November 1979. Susitna Hydroelectric Project: Preliminary Final Plan of Study. Anchorage, AK. 82 pp. *Alaska Department of Fish and Game. 1980. Sport Fish Survey. Juneau, AK. 24 pp. Alaska Department of Labor, Administrative Services Division. 1980. Trade and Regulated Industries Occupational Statistics. 1979. 69 pp. September Employment *Alaska Department of Labor, Administrative Services Division. January Juneau, 1, 1981. Alaska 1980 population: A Preliminary Overview. AK. 44 pp. Alaska Department of Labor, Employment Security Division. May 26, 1972. Economic Analysis, Issue 10, Vol. 1. Juneau, AK. 15 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. Labor Market Information Directory. Juneau, AK. 23 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. Undated. Educational Institutions Occupational Employment Statistics. Juneau, AK. 15 pp. *Alaska Department of Labor. Various issues. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau, AK. *Alaska Department of Labor. Various monthly issues. Alaska Economic Trends. Juneau, AK. 22 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. Various monthly issues. Labor Force Highlights. Juneau, AK. 80 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. Various Annual Issues. Selected Occupations Anchorage, Fairbanks and Wage Rates for Regional Areas. Juneau, AK. Alaska Department of Labor. June 1978. Occupational Employment Statistics-Manufacturing Industries 1977. Juneau, AK. 28 pp. 286 Alaska Department of Labor. July 1978. Alaska Economic Outlook to 1985. Juneau, AK. 37 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. August 1979. Occupational Employment Forecast. Juneau, AK. 17 pp. ~laska Department of Labor. September 1979. Occupational Employment Statistics --Nonmanufacturing Industries 1978. Juneau, AK. 68 pp. *Alaska Department of Labor. December 1979. Alaska Population Overview. Juneau, AK. 53 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. December 1979. Occupational Supply and Demand. Juneau, AK. 30 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. 1980. Annual Planning Information, FY 1981. Juneau, AK. 80 pp. Alaska Department of Labor, September 1980. Occupational Supply and Demand. Juneau, AK. 35 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. October, 1980. Occupational Employment Statistics, 1979. Juneau, AK. 28 pp. Alaska Department of Labor. November, 1980. Planning Information for Vocational Education. Juneau, AK. 63 pp. Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Agriculture. Various Annual Issues. Alaska Agriculture Statistics. Palmer, AK. Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division U.S. Department of Agriculture. June 1980. Statistics. Palmer, AK. 30 pp. of Agriculture and Alaska Agricultural *Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Research and Development, Land and Resource Planning Section. 1980. Susitna Basin Land Use/Recreation Atlas, Planning Background Report. Anchorage, AK. n.p. Alaska Department of Revenue, Petroleum Revenue Division. March 1978. Petroleum Revenue Forecast. Juneau, AK. 48 pp. *Alaska Department of Transportation and Transportation Planning Division. 1979. Traffic Volume Report, Volume I. Juneau, AK. Public Facilities, Alaska Highways Annual 402 pp. Alaska Division of Agriculture, Agriculture Experiment Station. Palmer, AK. n.p. Cooperative Extension Service, Monthly. Alaska Farm Reporter. 287 Alaska Division of Economic Enterprise and Municipality of Anchorage. March 1978. Anchorage: An Alaskan Community Profile. 2 pp. Alaska Miner's Association, Inc. Alaska Miner. Anchorage, AK. t\laska Miner's Association, Inc. Alaska Miner. Anchorage, AK. Dawn Kirk ,. ed. 23 pp. Dawn Kirk, ed. 23 pp. January "'1980. December 1980. The The *Alaska Northwest Publishing Company. 1980. The Mi 1 epost. Anchorage, AK. 498 pp. Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Fairbanks Case Study. Studies Program. May 8, Anchorage, AK. 118 pp. 1978. Alyeska- Alaska Office of the Governor. November 1980. The Alaska Economic Information and Reporting System, Quarterly Report. Juneau, AK. 10 pp. A 1 ask a Office Planning. pp. of the Governor, Division of Policy 1978. Alaska Data Inventory Catalog. Development Juneau, AK. and 137 Alaska Office of Labor, Research and Analysis. State, and Local Government Occupational· Juneau, AK. 27 pp. October 1980. Federal, Employment Statistics. Alaska Pacific Bank. Alaska Business Trends, 1979 Economic Forecast. Anchorage, AK. 39 pp. Alaska Power Authority. April 1980. A Report of the First Series of CoiTillunity Meetings on the Feasibility Studies for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project and Other Power Alternatives. Fairbanks, Talkeetna, Wasilla, Anchorage, AK. 61 pp. Anchorage Economic Development Commission. September 1976. Anchorage Economic Report. Anchorage, AK. 15 pp. Bantz, Don and Associates, N.D. Tribal Health Plan: Copper River Native Association Health Department. Anchorage, AK. 83 pp. Bornhoff and Associates. 1973. Palmer Comprehensive Development Plan. Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Anchorage, AK. 80 pp. Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Office. March 1980. Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program:· Lower Cook Inlet Petroleum Development Scenarios, Local Socioeconomic Systems Analysis. Technical Report Number 46, Volume 1. Anchorage, AK. 319 pp. 288 Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Office. March 1980. Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program: Lower Cook Inlet Petroleum Development Scenarios, Local Socioeconomic Systems Analysis. Technical Report Number 46, Volume 2. Ancnorage, AK. 356 pp. and Appendix. Coastal Zone Management Program Development. Alaska Federal Withdrawals. January 1979. {map) Cole, Terrence. July 1979. The history of the use of the upper Susitna River: Indian River to the Headwaters {for Alaska Department· of Natural Resources, Division of Research and Development). 39 pp. *Coopers & Lybrand. February 1978. Impact of Visitor • s Expenditures Upon Alaska•s Economy for the Year 1975. Anchorage, AK. 28 pp. *Darbyshire and Associates. June 1980. Socioeconomic Community Profiles, A Background for Planning: Delta Junction, Dot Lake, Northway, Tanacross, Tetlin, Tok. (prepared for Northwest Alaskan Pipeline Company). n.p. Ender, Richard L. December 1977. or Local Public Policy Issues. Anchorage, AK. 156 pp. The Opinions of the Anchorage Citizen Anchorage Urban Observatory Program. *Ender, Richard L. et al. June 1978. Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies and Physical Baseline Executive 33 pp. Program. Anchorage Socioeconomic Summary. Technical Report No. 124. Ender, Richard L. et al. January 1980. Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program. Gulf Development Scenarios. Baseline Vol. I. 357 pp. of Alaska and Lower Cook Inlet Petroleum Anchorage Socioeconomic and Physical Ender, Richard L. et al. January 1980. Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program. Gulf of Alaska and Lower Cook Inlet Petroleum Development Scenarios. Technical Report No. 48, Anchorage Impact Analysis. Vol. II. Vol. II. 250 pp. *Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Information Center. issues. Community Information Quarterly. Fairbanks, AK. Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Information Center. issues. The Energy Report. Fairbanks, AK. *Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Research Center .• issues. Community Research Quarterly, A Socioeconomic Fairbanks, AK. Various Various Various Review. Fairbanks North Star Borough. December 1979. 1979 Annual Report. Fairbanks, AK. 24 pp. 289 *Fairbanks Town and Village Association for Development, Inc. January 1979. Corrmunity Facilities Summaries. Fairbanks, AK. 187 pp. Fairbanks Town and Village Association for Development, Inc. April 8-9, 1978. A Report of the Upper Tanana Regional Forum on the Impact of Construction and Operation of the Al-Can Gas Pipeline. Fairbanks, AK. 64 pp. Fairbanks Town and Village Association for Development, Development District Association. September 1980. The Economic Development Program for the Economic Development of Interior Alaska. Fairbanks, AK. 101 pp. Interior Overall District Fison, Sue, Don Moore and Cindy Quisenberry. 1977. Energy Costs, Consumption and Impacts in Fairbanks. Fairbanks North Star Borough, Fairbanks, AK. Impact Information Center -Special Report No. 5. 69 pp. Fison, Sue and Cindy Quisenberry. 1977. Impact Information Center FinaJ Report. Fairbanks North Star Borough, Fairbanks, AK. Chapters 3, 7, 8, 10, 12, and 13. Forrest, Marilynn. July 1979. Fairbanks Cost of Living Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Information Fairbanks, AK. Special Report No. 5. 42 pp.- Update. Center, Forrest, Marilynn. July 1979. North Pole Refinery Energy Impact Study. Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Information Center, Fairbanks, AK. Special Report No. 6. 45 pp. *Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. June 1980. Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions: Alaska's Unique Transportation System. Anchorage, AK. 28 pp. *Jones & Jones. March 4, 1975. An Inventory and Evaluation of the Environmental, Aesthetic and Recreational Resources of the Upper Susitna River, Alaska. Seattle, WA. 320 pp. *Logsdon, Charles, et al. (undated) Copper River-Wrangell Socioeconomic Overview. The Institute for Social and Economic Research and the Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK. n.p. . Logsdon, Charles, Kenneth L. Casavant, and Wayne C. Thomas. 1977. Input-Output Tables for Alaska's Economy: A First Look •. Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK. Bulletin 48. 15 pp. *Matanuska Electric Association, Inc. September 1980. Alaska 2 Matanuska Power Requirements Study. Palmer, AK. 26 pp. 290 * Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. Comprehensive Development Plan. Palmer, AK. Apri 1 1978. 245 pp. Phase I: Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. May 1978. " Phase II: Comprehensive Development Plan. Palmer, AK. Preliminary D~;_aft. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. January 1979. Phase -III: Comprehensive Development Plan. Palmer, AK. Pre 1 i mi nary Draft. *Matanuska Telephone Association, Inc. Supplemental Loan Proposal. 1978-1983. *Matanuska Telephone Association, Inc. December 1980. Fi 11 Report. Palmer, AK. 12 pp. Matz, George, Ben Harding and Russell Wertz. July 1979. 1978 Fairbanks Energy Inventory. Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Information Center, Fairbanks, AK. Special Report No. 4. 88 pp. Mills, Michael J. July 1, 1978 -June 30, 1979. Report for Alaska Statewide Sport Fish Harvest Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Sport Fish AK. 112 pp. *Mills, Michael J. July 1, 1979-June 30, 1980. Report for Alaska Statewide Sport Fish Harvest Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Sport Fish AK. 65 pp. Municipality Profile. of Anchorage Anchorage, AK. Planning 32 pp. Department. Annual Performance Studies, Vol. 20. Division. Juneau, Annual Performance Studies, Vol. 21. Division. Juneau, 1978. Population *Municipality of Anchorage Planning Department. Various Undated Issues. Quarterly Economic Indicators. Anchorage, AK. Vol. 1, No. 1. 11 pp. Municipality of Anchorage. November 6, 1979. Anchorage Recreation Facilities Committee Reports. Anchorage, AK. Municipality of Anchorage. August 1980. 4 pp. Anchorage Economic Development Report. Anchorage, AK. Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1, 1979 -June 30, 1980. Annual Overall Development Program Report. Wasilla, AK. ~7 pp. *Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Volume I: Annual Overall Economic Development Program Report July 1, 1979-June 30, 1980. 31 pp. *Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. July 1980. Economic Conditions, Development Options and Projectios. 291 Volume 268 pp. II: Overall Economic Development Program, Inc. Volume I II: Appendices. July 1980. *Policy Analysts, Limited and Dr. Richard L. Ender. May 1980. Mat-Su Housing and Economic Development Study: Survey Findings. ?; Porter, Edward D. June 1980. Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program. -Bering-Norton Petroleum Development Scenarios Economic and Demographic Analysis. Technical Report No. 50. Institute of Social and Economic Research. University of Alaska. 175 pp. *PRC Harris Inc. and Alaska Consultants Inc., September 8, 1980. Summary: Southcentral Region of Alaska Deep-Draft_ Navigation Study. Anchorage, AK. 42 pp. Rogers, George W. and Jack Kreinheder. 1980. Socioeconomic Analysis for Fishery Areas and Census Division. Limited Entry Study Committee. 241 pp. (Prepared for Alaska Legislative Affairs Agency.) Scott, Michael, J. February 1979. Southcentral Alaska•s Economy and Population, 1965-2025: A Base Study and Projections. The Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, AK. Skagit Alaska, Inc. January 15-21, 1981. The Frontiersman (untitled). Wasi 11 a, AK. Skagit Alaska, Inc. April 9-15, 1981. The Frontiersman "Palmer Proves Best Hospital Site". Wasilla, AK. Soi 1 Conservation Service. December 1980. Susi tna River Basin Study, Willow Subbasin. Draft Report. n.p. TRA/FARR. Wasi 11 a Comprehensive P1 anni ng Study. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Newsletter I. April 28, 1980. Seattle, WA. TRA/FARR. Wasilla Comprehensive Planning Study. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Newsletter II. August 25, 1980. Seattle, WA. Tryck, Nyman & Hayes. March 1975. Community Development Plan (Vol. I & II). Anchorage, AK. Report for City of Delta Junction, AK. 2 vols. *University of Alaska, Arctic En vi ronmenta 1 Information and Data Center. July 1977. Copper River Region Community Folios; A Background for Planning: Cantwell, Chistochina, Chitina, Copper Center, Gakona, Gulkana, Mentasta Lake, Tazlina, n.p. *University of Alaska, Arctic Environmental Information and Data Center. 1973. The Ahtna Region, Background for Regional and Community Planning. Anchorage, AK. 292 United States Department of Energy, Alaska Power Administration. January 1979. Power Market Analysis: Draft. 125 pp. United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Manage~ent. 1980. Proposed Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Lease Sale.,. Lower Cook Inlet -Shelikof Strait: Draft Environmental Impact-Statement. Anchorage, AK. 288 pp. and Appendices. United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. 1980. Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Lower Cook Inlet - Shelikof Strait, Oil and Gas Lease Sale #60, Index. Anchorage, AK. 16 pp. and Glossary. United States Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administra- tion and Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities. March 27, 1980. Richardson Highway Draft Environmental Impact Statement (from Milepost 100 to Milepost 106.5; Copper Center, AK). 156 pp. United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, News. April 22, 1980. San Francisco, CA. 2 pp. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10. Apri 1 1980. Alaska Petrochemical Company, Refinery and Petrochemical Facility: Final Environmental Impact Statement. Valdez, AK. 341 pp. *United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10. December 1979. Alaska Petrochemical Company, Refinery and Petrochemical Facility, Appendix Vol. II: Environmental Impact Statement. Valdez, AK. 579 pp. 293 6.4 -Methodologies Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. Undated. State of Alaska Quarterly Econometric Model. Juneau, AK. n.p. ~laska, State of, Division of Policy Development and Planning. August 5, 1980. State of Alaska Railbelt Electrical Power Alternatives Study, Request for Proposals (additional information). Juneau, AK. n.p. Alaska Division of Policy Development and Planning. October 1975. Bibliography of Community Planning Supplement. Juneau, AK. n.p. Anderson. 1970. A Note on Economic Base Studies and Regional Econometric Forecasting Models. Journal of Regional Science. Vol. 10, No. 3. pp. 325-333. Andrews, Wade H. and Dennis C. Geertsen. January 1974. Social Dimensions of Urban Flood Control Decisions. Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322. 69 pp. Andrews, Wade H. et al, December 1974. Social Impacts of Water Resource Developments and Their Implications for Urban and Rural Development: A Post-Audit Analysis of the Weber Basin Project in Utah. Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT. 178 pp. Andrews, Wade H. et al., ed. 1973. The Social Well-Being and Quality of Life Dimension in Water Resources Planning and Development. Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah. Proceedings of the Conference of the University Council on Water Resources, July 10-12, 1973. 213 pp. Arizona Office of Economic Planning and Development. July 1977. Description and Technical Description of the Economic/Demographic Projection Model. Baker, Janet K., Norbert Dee, and James R. Finley. 1974. Measuring Impacts of Water Resource Developments on the Human Environment. American Water Resources Association, Water Resources Bulletin. Vol. 10, No. 1. pp. 10-21. Bendix, Selina and Herbert R. Graham. 1978. Environmental Assessment - Approaching Maturity. Ann Arbor Science Publishers, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI. 288 pp. Bi swas, As it K. and Robert W. Durie. Sociological Aspects of Water Development. Water Resources Bulletin. n.p. Canter, Larry W. 1977. Environmental Impact Assessment. McGraw Hill Book Company, New York. 331 pp. 294 Canter, Larry W. 1979. Technology Sourcebook. Arbor, MI. 529 pp. Water Resources Assessment -Methodology & Ann Arbor Science Publishers, In,c., Ann Center for the Study of Social Policy. 1975. Handbook of For"ecasting Techniques. Institute for Water Resources, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Belvoir, VA. Contract DACW 31-75-C-0027. 314 pp. Chalmers, J. A. 1977. Bureau of Reclamation Construction Worker Survey. Engineering and Research Centert U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denvert co. 222 pp. Chalmers, J. A. and Anderson, E. J. 1977. Economic/Demographic Assessment Manu a 1 : Current Practices, Procedural Recommendations, and a Test Case. Engineering and Research Center, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO. 300 pp. Cheremisinoff, Paul N. and Angelo c. Morresi. Assessment and Impact Statement Handbook. Publishers, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI. 438 pp. 1977. Ann Environmental Arbor Science Clonts, Howard A. and Lonnie P. Cain. 1976. Implications of Watershed Development on Land Value and Landowner Attitudes. Agricultural Experiment Station/Auburn University, Auburn, ,AL. Bulletin 479. 41 pp. Construction Engineering Research Laboratory. June, 1976. The Economic Impact Forecast System: Description and User Instructions. Technical Report N-2. n.p Corwin, Ruthann, et al. 1975. Environmental Impact Assessment. Freeman, Cooper and Company, San Francisco. 277 pp. Daniels, Belden, H., et al, November 9, 1979. The Consideration of Social and Economic Measures in Project Evaluation -An Overview. Boston, MA. 85 pp. Department of the Army, Seattle District, Corps of Engineers. Manual for Social Impact Assessment. Seattle, WA. Draft. 1975. A 51 pp. Eakland, Peter, et al. January 1980. Alaska OCS Socioceconomic Studies Program: Western Gulf of Alaska Petroleum Development Scenarios Transportation Systems Analysis. Technical Report No. 37. 273 pp. Field, Donald R., James C. Barron, and Burl F. Long. 1974. Water and Community Socia 1 and Economic Perspectives. Ann Arbor Science Publishers, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI. 302 pp. Finsterbusch, K. and Wolf, C. P. 1977. The Methodology of Social Impact Assessment. Dowden, Hutchinson and Ross Publishing Co., Stroudsberg, PA. 295 Finsterbusch, K. 1977. Methods of Evaluating Non-Market Impacts in Policy Decisions with Special Reference to Water R~sources Development Projects. U. S. Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA. IWR Contract Report 77-78. 46tpp. Floyd, F. Charles and Clemon F. Sirmans. July 1975. The Economic -Impact of Recreational Land-Use in an Island Environment: A case study of Jekyll Island, Georgia. Skidaway Island, Georgia. 184 pp. Foell, Wesley K. {Ed.). 1979. Management of Energy/Environmental Systems. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, U.K. 487 pp. Glickman, Norman J. February, 1977. Impact Analysis with Regional Econometic Models (Draft). University of Pennsylvania, PA. n.p. Goldsmith, Scott and Lee Huskey. 1980. Electric Power Consumption for the Railbelt: A Projection of Requirements, Technical Appendices. Institute of Socia 1 and Economic Research for the State of A 1 ask a House Power Alternatives Study Committee and Alaska Power Authority, Anchorage, AK. Guseman, P. K. and Dietrich, K. T. 1978. Profile and Measurement of Social Well-Being Indicators for Use in the Evaluation of Water and Related Land Management Planning. U. S. Army Engineers Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, MS. Misc. Paper Y-78-2. 112 pp. Laboratory of Architecture and Planning, MIT. November 1976. Predicting the Local Impacts of Energy Development: A Critical Guide to Forecasting Methods and Models (Draft). Cambridge, MA. n.p. Leistritz, F. L., D. M. Senechal, and Lorent Low. 1980. Socioeconomic Effects of Energy Development: The Role of Impact Models in Policy Making. Paper presented at National Energy Policy Conference, University of West Virginia, Morganstown, May 1, 1980. n.p. Lerner, Sally C. 1980. Energy Policy: A Potential Source of Positive Social Impacts. Paper presented at National Energy Policy Conference, University of West Virginia, Morgantown, May 1, 1980. Louis Berger & Associates, Inc. August 20, 1980. Best and Final Proposal for Isolated Industrial Facilities Development for Alaska OCS Oil and Gas Activities. Fairbanks, AK. n.p. Louis Berger, Inc. March 1973. ·Methodological Improvements in Measuring Economic Effects of Multi-purpose Water Resource Projects. East Orange, NJ. 79 pp. {prepared for the Office of Water Resources Research). 296 McEvoy, James III and Thomas Dietz {Eds.). 1977. Handbook for Environmental Planning and Social Consequences of Environmental :;: Change. John Wiley & Sons, New York. 323 pp. Malone, D. W. 1975. An Introduction to the Application of Interpretive Structural Modeling in Baldwin, M.M. (ed.) Portraits of Complexity: Applications of Systems Methodologies to Societal Problems. Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, OH. 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Center for the Study of Social Policy under Contract to U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA. Supplement to IWR Contract Report 75-7. 74 pp. Mountain West Research, Inc. for Water and Power Resources Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. August 1980. Bureau of Reclamation: Economic Assessment Model (BREAM), Technical Description and User's Guide. Tempe, AZ. 115 pp. Mountain West Research, Inc. October 1977. Construction Worker Survey. Tempe, Arizona. 222 pp. Mountain Research, Inc. January 1978. Bureau of Reel amation. Economic Assessment Model (BREAM) Technical Description. for U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Tempe, AZ 85282. n.p. Mountain West Research, Inc. December, 1975. Demographic and Economic Projections for Rosebud County, Montana. Tempe, Arizona. 297 Mountain West Research, Inc. 1979. A Guide to Methods for Impact Assessment of Western Coal/Energy Development. Billings, Montana. _, Mountain West Research, Inc. 1976. Mid-Yellowstone Areawide Planning Organization: Economic Demographic Projection Model. B'illings, Montana. Muller, T. 1976. Economic Impacts of Land Development: Employment, Housing and Property Values. The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. URI 15800. 148 pp. Muller, T. 1975. Fiscal Impacts on Land Development. The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. URI 98000. 68 pp. Murdock, Steve H. and F. Larry Leist ritz. 1979. Demographic and Economic Effects of Large-Scale Energy Development in Rural Areas: An Assessment Model in Gene F. Summers and Arne Selvik (eds.), Nonmetropolitan Industrial Growth and Community Change. Lexington, Lexington, MA. pp. 223-53. Murdock, Steve H. and F. Larry Leistritz. 1979. Energy Development in the Western United States. Praeger Publishers, New York. 363 pp. Nachmias, David. 1979. Public Policy Evaluation~ St. Martin•s Press, Inc., New York. 195 pp. National Research Council. 1979. Sociopolitical Effects and Energy Use and Policy, Supporting Paper 5, Study of Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. National Academy of Sciences. Washington, D.C. 511 pp. North Slope Borough, Department of Public Safety. Challenge to the Police Role in Rurual Alaska: The North Slope Borough Experience. 34 pp. Reaume, David M. 1980. Migration and the Dynamic Stability of Regional Econometric Models. State of Alaska, Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Juneau, AK. Rosen, Sherman J. 1976. Manual for Environmental Impact Evaluation. Prentice-Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 232 pp. Shields, Mark A. Bibliography. Belvoir, VA. 1974. Social Impact Assessment: An Analytic U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources, Fort IWR Paper 74-P6. 129 pp. Singh, Raghu N. and Kenneth P. Wilkinson. 1974. On the Measurement of Environmental Impacts of Public Projects from a Sociological Perspective. American Water Resources Association, Water Resources Bulletin. Vol. 10, No. 3. pp. 415-425. 298 Smith, Charles R. et al. 1973. Social and Cultural Impact of a Proposed Reservoir on a Rural Kentucky School District. Kentuckl Water Resources Institute, Lexington, KY. 189 pp. Smith, Charles R. 1970. Anticipation of Change: A Socioeconomic Description of a Kentucky County before Reservoir Construction. Kentucky Water Resources Institute, Lexington, KY. 166 pp. Sonnen, Michael B. and Larry C. Davis. 1979. Wild Rivers -Methods for Evaluation. American Water Resources Association, Water Resources Bulletin, Vo. 15, No. 2. pp. 404-419. Stinson, D. S. and O'Hare, M. 1977. Predicting the Loca1 Impacts of Energy Development: A Critical Guide to Forecasting Methods and Models. Laboratory of Architecture and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. 98 pp. Suchman, Edward A. 1967. Evaluative Research. Russell Sage Foundation, New York. 186 pp. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle District. September 1975. A Manual for Social Impact Assessment, Seattle, WA. 51 pp. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seatt1e District. 1980. Community Impact Reports Chief Joseph Dam. Seattle, WA. u.s. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle District. September 1975. A Manual for Social Impact Assessment, Seattle, WA. 51 pp. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. April 1980. Final Supplement No. 1 to the Fin a 1 Environmental Statement for Pebble Springs Nuclear Plant, Units 1 and 2 Proposed by Portland General Electric Company. Washington, D.C. 20555. n.p. United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1975. Evaluation of Economic and Demographic Data Useful in Water Resources Planning. U.S. Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources, Fort Be1voir, VA. IWR Pamphlet No. 3. University of Alaska, Arctic En vi ron menta 1 Information and Data Center. 1980. Current Research Profile for Alaska, 1979. Anchorage, AK. 420 pp. University of Alberta, Faculty of Extension. 1980. Computer Mpdels for Forecasting Socioeconomic Impacts of Growth and Development. Edmonton, Alberta. Proceedings of conference, April 20-23, 1980. Wakeland, W. 1976. QSIM2: A Low-Budget Heuristic Approach to Modeling and Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 9. pp. 213-229. 299 Warden, Richard E. and w. Tim Dagodag. 1976. A Guide to the Preparation and Review of En vi ronmenta 1 Impact Reports. ;>ecu rity World Publishing Co., Inc., Los Angeles. 138 pp. · White, William T., B. Malamund and J. Nixon. May, 1976. A M~de1 for the Socioeconomic Analysis of Water Projects. {75)6.4 300 ?-AUTHORITIES CONTACTED 7 -AUTHORITIES CONTACTED 7.1 -Introduction Contained in this section is a comprehensive list of government agencies prganizations, institutions, and individuals contacted to assist in the development of this socioeconomic profile. The section is divided into four distinct categories: 7.2-Federal Institutions; 7.3-State Institutions; 7.4-Local Institutions; and 7.5-0ther Institutions, Organizations, and Individuals. 7.2 -Federal Institutions U.S DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR Bureau of Land Management Anchorage, AK Michael Brown -Phone discussion with Peter Rogers; January 30, 1981; discussed type, quality, and quantity of data available regarding the historic use of Alaska•s inland waters for travel, trade or commerce. Bureau of Land Management, Outer Continental Shelf (SESP) Gary Hennigh; Charlie Smythe -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 9, 1981; discussed OCS, SESP Studies and Enclave Development Study (Louis Berger & Associates). Charlie Smythe, Socioeconomic Specialist -Meeting with David Davies; September 24, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. Bureau of Mines -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 8, 1981; obtained information and map on mining claim locations in Upper Susitna River Basin. Joanne Gidlund, Public Affairs Office -Phone discussion with David Davies; February 10, 1981; regarding information on D-2 legislation. HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT Anchorage, AK E.R. Robinson, Director -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 12, 1981; infor- mation on housing data for Copper River Region. 303 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Delon Brown, Chief Researcher -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 5, 1980; identify ~forecasting models and socioeconomic data and information. U.S. Soil Conservation Service Anchorage, AK Sterling E. Powell, P.E., River Basin Planning Staff -Meeting with Peter Rogers; January 29, 1981; discussed goals, objectives and status of river basin planning project. ECONOMICS, AND STATISTICS SERVICE Natural Resource Economics Division Anchorage, AK Paul Fuglestad, Agricultural Economist -Meeting with Peter Rogers; January 29, 1981; discussed methods and results of agriculture and timber potential studies for the Willow subbasin; discussed plan of study for other subbasins; discussed population projects for the river basin. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Railroad Administration Alaska Railroad Fred Hoefler, Traffic Officer -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 9, 1981; discussed freight schedules, capacity, upgrading, employment, and payroll. 7.3-State Institutions ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Juneau, AK Lee Hays -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 3, 1981; regarding information on school districts in the Mat-Su Borough.and Valdez- Chitina-Whittier censuc: division. Will be sending pertinent infor- mation. 304 ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Valdez, AK Rick Quiroz, Planner -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; January 27, 1981.; regarding Environmental Assessments for portions of Richardson Highway. Sending EA's for Copper Center and Glennallen (will send fA for Mile 125 to Paxson in Spring when complete). ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Anchorage, AK Reed Gibby, Transportation Planner -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; November 5, 1980; regarding Mat-Su Borough Transportation Study. Presently no forma.l study exists. Recommends contacting individual town offices for speci- fic questions. Study just commencing. -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 7, 1981; discussed and obtained data on highway and bridge conditions, road capacities and plans for upgrading for Parks, Glenn, Denali, and Richardson Highways. Bill Humphrey, Transportation Planner I -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; November 5, 1980; regarding Mat-Su Borough Transportation Study (no such study completed at this time). ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL AFFAIRS (CRA) Richard Spitler, Planner -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 21, 1980; disciJssed CRA's activities in the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division and obtained studies on communities in this division. Mark Stephens, Planner VI -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 6, 1981; in Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census division corridor) and existing community profiles. discussed activities (Richardson Highway -Phone discussion with David Davies; September 25, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME Anchorage, AK Sterling Eide, Regional Supervisor for Game Division -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; establish com- munication and obtain data. 305 -Meeting with Peter Rogers; August 19, 1980; establish com- munication and obtain data on harvest. Sterling Miller, Game Biologist III -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; establJsh com- munication and obtain data. Larry Heckart, Fisheries Biologist IV -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; establish com- munication and obtain data. Michael Mills, Fishery Biometrician III -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; establish com- munication and obtain data. -Meeting with Peter Rogers; October 14, 1980; request for answers to questions of ADF&G's Final Preliminary Plan of Study; determine status of ADF&G•s Susitna effort; determine and establish optimal communications channels and methods of coordination with ADF&G; obtain socioeconomic data and information on recreational fisheries for Areas 2 and 5 from ADF&G; establish timetables for data and information outputs and sharing with ADF&G. Christopher Estes, Fisheries Biologist III -Meeting with David Davies; September 23,_ 1980; establish com- munication. Ron Stanek, Resource Specialist II -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; establish com- munication. Dennis Haanpaa, Fisheries Biologist IV, Commercial Fisheries -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; establish com- munication. Jerry Sexton, Game Biologist II -Meeting with Peter Rogers; August 19, 1980; establish com- munication and obtain gain harvest data. Lee Miller, Fish and Game Technician V -Meeting with Peter Rogers; August 19, 1980; establish com- munication and obtain game harvest data. Greg Bas, Game Biologist IV -Phone discussion with David Davies; February 10, 1981; .regardin9 obtaining a copy of the Alaska Wildlife Management Plans. 306 ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY Division of Fish and Wildlife Protect1on Rodney Mills, Detachment Commander Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; establish conmunication. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES Division of Research and Development, Land and Resources Planning Carol Larsen, Public Information Officer -Meeting with David Davies; September 25, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. Bob Loeffler, Associate Planner -Meeting with David Davies; September 25, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 19, 1980; discussed land use planning methods, status of Willow subbasin area land use planning, and socioeconomic implications of land use zoning. Steve Reeves, Chief, Land Resourcer Planner; Randy Cowart, Planner -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 9, 1981; discussed time sched- ules and collaboration regarding Regional Plan for the Upper Susitna. Division of Pipeline Surveillance Fairbanks, AK Elstun Lausen, Socioeconomic Officer . -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; January 7, 1981; regarding conmunity profi 1 es and studies of Southeast Fairbanks and Valdez- Chitina-Whittier census divisions. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE Juneau, AK Linda Lockridge, Records and Licensing Supervisor, Fish & Game Licensing Division -Meeting with Peter Rogers; August 20, 1980; obtain info~mation on game harvest Bill Yankee, Economist II -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 21, 1980; discussed structure on non-petro revenue model and revenues from hydro projects. -Phone discussion with David Davies; February 6, 1981; regarding data on gross sales by census division. 307 Hazel Nowlin, Administrative Assistant I -Phone discussion with David Davies; February 20, 1981; regarding Gross Business Receipts by Borough -North Start, Mat-Su, Anchorage, 1970 -77. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Anchorage, AK Heinz Noonan, Energy Economist -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 3, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Division of Research and Analysis Steve Harrison, Labor Economist -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 20, 1980; discussed population data and LABMOD (short-run labor projections model). Chuck Caldwell, Chief of Research and Analysis -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 20, 1980; discussed levels of disaggregation of employment data and employment estimates. Chris Miller, Labor Economist -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 20, 1980; discussed structure of LABMOD and income and employment multipliers. Rod Brown, Supervisor of Research -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 20, 1980; discussed income and employment multipliers and economic base analysis. Neil Fried, Labor Economist -Meeting with Peter Rogers; January 30, 1981; discussed employment data, multipliers, labor supply data, location quotients and the availability of commuting and labor migration studies. Cal Dauel, Administrative Officer -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 8, 1981; discussed income and employment multipliers; industry linkages; and consumer price index for Matanuska-Susitna Borough. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Juneau, AK Sally Saddler, Labor Economist -Phone discussion with David Davies; February 23 and 25; request for labor data information. 308 ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Division of Energy and Power Development Secretary -Phone discussion with David Davies; September 25, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. David Reume, Economist -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 6, 1980; identify forecasting models. -Phone discussion with Peter Rogers; January 30,1981; discussed availability of State•s Long-Term Energy Plan. UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA Institute of Social and Economic Research Lee Huskey, Economist -Meeting with Andy, Woolford; January 6, 1981; discussed employment and population multipliers and Valdez-Chitina-Whittier community studies. Scott Goldsmith, Assistant Professor of Economics -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 4, 1980; identify forecasting models. -Meeting with Peter Rogers; July 8, 1980; determine relevance of ISER demographic and economic models for Work Package 4. ARCTIC ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION AND DATA CENTER {AEIDC) Barbara Sokolov, Director, Information Services -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 6, 1981; apprised of AEIDC data cataloging and retrieval, especially as it pertains to Richardson Highway corridor. HOUSE POWER ALTERNATIVES STUDY COMMITTEE Juneau, AK Hugh Malone -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 6, 1980; establish communication channels. 309 GLENNALLEN STATE TROOPER POST Glenna 11 en, AK Bob Cockrell, State Trooper -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 4, 1981; ~egarding trooper facilities and personnel in the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier cen- sus divisions. ALASKA STATE HOUSING AUTHORITY Bill Foster, Housing Director -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 9, 1981; discussed housing studies/surveys in Matanuska and Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census divisions. 7.4 -Local Institutions MUNICIPALITY OF ANCHORAGE Anchorage, AK Mike Meehan, Director of Planning -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 4, 1980;. establish contact and identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. Shawn Hemme, Assistant Planner -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 4, 1980; establish contact and identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. Barbara Withers, Regional Economist -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; discussion of socioeconomic information and studies. Chuck Becker, Economic Development Director -Meeting with David Davies; September 23, 1980; discussion of socioeconomic information and studies. MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH OFFICE Palmer, AK Rodney Schulling, Planning Director -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 6, 1981; regarding Borough areawide and non-areawide services, with particular atten- tion to Talkeetna and vicinity. Alan Tesche, In-house Authority -Meeting with David Davies; September 26, 1980; general discussion of Borough. Lee Wyatt, Acting Borough Manager -Meeting with David Davies; September 26, 1980; discuss Borough development objectives. 310 MATANUSKA-SUSITNA SCHOOL DISTRICT Palmer Mr. Hotchkiss, Business Manager -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 13, 1981; c~pacities and plans for expansion of public school facilities in the Mat- Su Borough. FAIRBANKS BOROUGH Fairbanks, AK Philip Berrian, Planning Director -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 2, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. VALDEZ POLICE DEPARTMENT Valdez, AK Police Officer -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 5, 1981; regarding coiTITlunity and judicial facilities in the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census divisions. MAGISTRATE Glenna 11 en, AK Sheldon Spector, Magistrate -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 5, 1981; regarding COITITlunity and judicial facilities in the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier census divisions. COPPER RIVER SCHOOL DISTRICT Glennallen, AK Dr. Krinke, Superintendent -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 5, 1981; regarding school facilities and enrollment for the Copper River region. 7.5-Other Institutions, Organizations, and Individuals AHTNA, INC. Copper Center, Ak Lee Adler, Director -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 5, 1981; regarding community facilities/infrastructure for the Ahtna region. 311 -Phone discussion with David Davies; February 20, 1981; to deter- mine status of Ahtna, Inc. lands in Susitna area. ALASKA HOSPITAL Anchorage, AK Head Nurse -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 4, 1981; regarding data on facilities and capacity. ALASKA MINER 1 S ASSOCIATION -Meeting with Andy Woolford; January 7, 1981; discussed location and number of mining claims in the Upper Susitna Basin; discussed implications of access routes to mining activity. COOK INLET REGION, INC. Anchorage, AK Marge Sagerser, Land Manager -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 3, 1980; establish communications channels and identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. COPPER RIVER HOUSING AUTHORITY Copper Center, AK Thea Smelcher, Housing Director -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 11, 1981; housing information in Copper River Region. COPPER RIVER NATIVE ASSOCIATION Copper Center, AK -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 4, 1981; regarding community facilities in the Ahtna region. Ms. Billy Peters, Health Director -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 20, 1981; infor- mation on health services in Copper River Region. COPPER VALLEY ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION Valdez, AK Dan Teggler -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 2, 1981; regarding Copper Valley Electric Association rates, capacities, power require- ments. Will be sending pertinent information. 312 COPPER VALLEY VIEWS Kenny Lake~ AK Reporter -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 2~ 1981; r-egarding circulation and information on other media in the immediate vicinity. DARBYSHIRE AND ASSOCIATES Anchorage~ AK Ralph Darbyshire -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; January 7~ 1981; regarding socioeconomic profiles. DOYON CORPORATION Fairbanks, AK Doug Williams, Land Planner -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 3, 1980; establish communication channel and identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. FAIRBANKS TOWN AND VILLAGE ASSOCIATION FOR DEVELOPMENT, INC. Art Patterson -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; January 9, 1981; discussed community profiles and other studies they have prepared for Interior Di strict. GUIDE LICENSE REVIEW BOARD -Phone discussion with David Davies; September 25, 1980; infor- mation on guide services in Susitna River Basin area. HIGH LAKE LODGE John Wilson, Resident Manager -Meeting with Peter Rogers; July 7, 1980; obtain socioeconomic data from along the Upper Susitna River. FAIRBANKS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE Fairbanks, AK Bob Dempsey, Business Analyst -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 2, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. 313 FAIRBANKS BOROUGH COMMUNITY INFORMATION CENTER Fairbanks, AK Karen Fox, Research Analyst -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 2, 1980; identify S®rces of socioeconomic data and information. MATANUSKA ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION, INC. Palmer, AK Ken Ritchey, Engineeering Services -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; November 5, 1980; requesting Power Requirements study. Will be sending pertinent information. -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 19, 1981; infor- mation on average electricity consumption from 1975 -1980. Bud Goodyear, Public Information Officer -Meeting with David Davies; September 26, 1980; obtain information on electrical supply and demand and future projections. -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 6, 1980; obtain information regarding power requirements study. MATANUSKA TELEPHONE ASSOCIATION Palmer, AK Don Taylor -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 10, 1981; infor- mation on telephone service in Mat-Su Borough. Graham Rolstad, Chief Engineer -Meeting with David Davies; September 26, 1980; obtain information on telephone service and projections. N.W. ALASKAN PIPELINE COMPANY Sue Fisson, Socioeconomic Coordinator -Phone discussion with David Davies; January 8, 1981; discussed gas pipeline corridor community profiles; obtained copies. -Meeting with Frank Orth; June 16, 1980; determine .Northwest Alaskan Pipeline Company•s recent and current activities in socioeconomics. Virginia Manna -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 3, 1980; identify sources of socioeconomic data and information. 314 OVERALL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM, INC. Wasilla, AK Don Lyon, Director -Meeting with Irene Gendron; June 5, 1980; identify Sq!.!rces of socioeconomic data and information. -Meeting with David Davies; September 26, 1980; discuss socioecono- mic data and information and obtain recent study. -Meeting with Peter Rogers; November 19, 1980; discussed results of Economic Program for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. PALMER FIRE HALL Palmer, AK Dan Conteeni, Fire Chief -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 4, 1981; regarding data on EMT (ambulance) and fire facilities in the Borough. PALMER VALLEY HOSPITAL Palmer, AK Ann Demmings, Nurse -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 4, 1981; regarding data on facilities and capacity. VALDEZ COMMUNITY HOSPITAL Valdez, AK Nurse -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 4, 1981; regarding data on facilities and capacity. VALDEZ VANGUARD Valdez, AK Reporter -Phone discussion with Andy Woolford; February 2, 1981; regarding circulation, service area, and existence of other publications in the area. 315 APPENDIX A A -PROCESS FOR DEFINING SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STUDY AREAS A.1 -Introduction The results of Work Package 1 will provide the groundwork for defining the socioeconomic variables and delineating the study areas. This work pack. age wi 11 include the compilation of impacts from a 1 ternat i ve soci a- economic studies with particular emphasis on hydroelectric studies, and a review of socioeconomic data bases and relevant literature. In addi- tion, preliminary work on Work Package 4 will yield relevant information concerning potential variables. Also, the first stages of actual data collection will provide information that will be used in defining variables and study areas. The approach in defining the variables and the study areas is both theoretical and pragmatic. Based on pertinent literature and in-house expertiset the variables and areas are to be partially defined. In con- junction with this "a priori" approach, actual variables and areas uti- lized in other studies or for which data definitely exists are then to be examined and synthesized. A.2 -Socioeconomic Variables Essentially four major sources will be utilized to determine the socio- economic categories and variables. These are: 1) other socioeconomic impact studies; 2) 1 iterature concerning socioeconomic impact assess- ment; 3) socioeconomic data especially in terms of Susitna project spe- cific material; and 4) in-house expertise. A preliminary list of socioeconomic variables will be gleaned from various environmental impact statements i ncl udi ng Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Exhibit w•s and other socioeconomic reports and studies. In addition, this process will yield the major categories for the variables. These categories essentially will be subject titles or headings under which specific variables dealing with details wil~ fall. One example of a Susitna project-specific category and variable is recreation. Because of the unique and important role the natural resources of Alaska play in the socioeconomic structure, it will be necessary to treat it separately. This treatment is especially warranted in terms of the fish and wildlife resources. These con- siderations suggest that recreation be treated discretely and that it should be broken into two major areas; recreation utilizing fish or wildlife resources and recreation not dependent upon these resources. As part of this work, an economic data collection matrix is to be deve- loped and revised as necessary. The purpose of the matrix is to clas- sify data by socioeconomic categories and geographical area. The latter function is employed to facilitate the allocation of data to the study areas as these become defined. Data is also classified in the matrix according to its currency and periodicity. This consideration insures that the most up-to-date information will be utilized in the development of socioeconomic profiles. Next, from the preliminary list of categories and variables and data collection matrix, a "wish list" of variables for our study will be pre- pared. Due to the 1 arge val ume of data it is necessary to begin with such a "wish list 11 and reduce it as more is learned from the data col- lection matrix concerning data availability. This ensures that few variables, if any, will be overlooked in the process. This list is sub- ject to further refinement as more input is received. Moreover, since the scope of the Susitna socioeconomic study is limited to secondary data, data availability and quality will determine which variables will be quantitatively handled, which qualitatively regarded, and which will not be dealt with at all. Another factor which will influence the ulti- mate inclusion of variables is the degree of importance each will have relative to Susitna. This selection process will occur throughout the 320 course of the study. Also, during the course of the study, the list will be pared down in efforts to minimize variable redundancy. ~he cri- teria for this will be quality of the data base and relevanc~ to the forecasting methodology. The final list of socioeconomic variables, to be called 11 Comprehensive List of Socioeconomic Categories and Va ri ab 1 es, 11 wi 11 rep resent the culmination of the selection of variables. This list will be further defined relative to the study areas {discussed below).' This process will be similar to the process of refinement in general, i.e., variables will be assigned to study ~reas based on importance, relevance, and availabiity of data. A.3 -Definition of Study Areas In the event that hydroelectric development occurs in the Upper Susitna Basin, the socioeconomic 'impacts will be felt or occur in varying de- grees over a considerable distance. Ideally, the impacts could be traced by drawing a series of concentric circles emanating from the dam site{s) which would represent a lessening degree of impact as one pro- gressed outward. (In general, the project impacts can be expected to be more intense the closer they are to the project site and staging areas). However, demographic, social, and economic activity patterns do not follow such a precise configuration. Human activity is most pronounced a 1 ong transportation corridors and population centers. More impor- tantly, each socioeconomic category as it relates to an activity may have a unique pattern. Nevertheless, for the sake of organization and to facilitate analy~is, it is appropriate to delineate study areas. The process of defining the study areas for each socioeconomic category involves analyzing sources and availability of data, socioeconomic stu- dies and literature, other team member's study areas, plans of study and reports, and input from various state agencies. As before with the 321 socioeconomic variables, the nature of the study requires a system which is flexible and can accommodate a certain degree of change. for this reason, there is a propensity to have very small as well as very large study areas. This is warranted for two reasons. One is that substan- tial impacts relative to the existing socioeconomic conditions will occur at the local or "micro" level. In general, it is at this level that secondary information is hardest to find and thus it deserves to be focused upon. The other reason for such delineation is that it makes it possible to aggregate data across study areas. This will facilitate analysis at the "macro" level and comparison between "micro" and "macro" levels. In recognition of the above considerations, the following criteria are to be applied in defining study areas: (I) the smallest study area shall conform ~s closely as possible to those of closely-related disciplines (e.g., recreation; land use; cultural resources, etc.); (2) the next smallest study area shall be at the community level {i.e., the smallest statistical area for which relevant time- series economic and social data are available; and the area must be large enough to contain a population sufficient in size to allow for the organization of social life for the pursuit of one or several common interests and the necessary support systems; {3) the next 1 arger study area shall be composed of two or more communities {as defined above) that are most likely to be impacted directly by hydroelectric development in the Upper Susitna Basin. What is commonly referred to as the com- munities that comprise the "railbelt region" may be a good first approximation; and 322 (4) the largest study area shall be the State of Alaska. In defining the study areas, the following factors are to be taken into consideration: (1) proximity to project site, access routes. and staging areas; (2) population distribution and density patterns; and (3) political units and boundaries. especially in terms of census divisions and municipality boundaries. 323 APPENDIX 8 APPENDIX B The results of Work Package 1, Work Item D, are summarized in the following table. These impacts or areas of concern have been extracted from profiles of various en vi ronmenta 1 impact studies of other energy deve 1 opment pro- jects. The assessment of the profi 1 es yielded this 1 i st of impacts or areas of concern which could be relevant to the proposed Susitna Project. The list is by no means exhaustive but is intended to serve as a guide for further research and analysis. Specific items were evaluated as regards their potential relevance to the Susitna Project in terms of degree and geographical area of impact. POTENTIAL DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC -AREA OF IMPACT + L,R + L + l ? L, R ? l, R 0 l + L ? L APPENDIX B IMPACTS OF REPRESENTATIVE POWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS: POTENTIAL RELEVANCE FOR THE PROPOSED SUSITNA PROJECT TYPE OF IMPACT Land Use and Features Total acreage required by project facilities and right-of-ways. Total acreage of land indirectly impacted by project facili- ties and right-of-way. Short-term impacts may be less substantial than the long-term impacts. Patterns of ownership and induced changes. Changes in uses of land. Value of land and natural resources above and below ground 1 ost/gai ned. Changes in potential uses of land (wilderness or roadless areas, National Scenic River, etc.) Potential for seismic activity. Overall "productivity" of land could increase. Increased accessibility will affect land and resource values. Opportunities for flood protection. Degree of impact: + is relatively large; o is relatively small. ? is uncertain. Geographic area of impact: L is the Upper Susitna area (Study Area 1 and 2) R is the railbelt and the state (Study Area 3 and 4) 328 POTENTIAL DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT + L + R + L + L ? L + L, o R + L, R + L + L o R TYPE OF IMPACT Socioeconomic Categories 1. Population Temporary versus permanent impacts. Number of workers; families, and other inhabitants expected to relocate. Population may grow with or without project, and coupled with other projects (e.g. the gas pipeline.) Project may induce secondary population growth. 2. Housing Impacts to region may depend on percentage of workers re- cruited from outside region. Availability or tightness of housing market determines scale of impact. Demand for housing many be determined independently of pro- ject and in part by other major construction projects. Most workers will be housed in temporary construction camps; commuting is unlikely. Rents and market values in the closer residential areas may rise. 3. Tax Base and Revenues Taxes on construction property may accrue to certain govern- ment entities. Depending on workers' spending habits, various communities may experience an increase in revenues from sales tax. Appreciated land values may lead to an increase in tax base. Participants and/or governments may agree to offset certain costs incurred by various governments. Revenues will accrue to the Federal government via income taxes on construction and operating personnel income. 329 POTENTIAL DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT + L + L + L, R + L + L, R + L o L + L, o R + R + L + L, o R ? L, R + L, o R TYPE OF IMPACT Revenues may increase over time due to appreciation of land values relating to increased opportunities for development (secondary impact). Changes in land use will alter value of tax base. 4. Employment Number of employees required during operation and mainte- nance. Income figures for workers (total annual, average per worker, timing, etc.) Secondary employment may occur in economic infrastructure due to multiplier effects. Number of construction workers and timinq of work force loading. Percentage of work force hired locally and regionally. Seasonal variations in employment. Number of workers employed by transmission line construction. Effect on other industries and sectors of economy created by / project 1 s demand for labor. Impacts of laws related to number of state residents required to be employed. Breakdown of work force by trade and function. 5. Economy Increased accessibility to area could encourage development .. associated with recreational opportunities. Multiplier effect on local and regional economy. Incentives for industrial development created by stable energy availability. Impacts on communities from increased economic activity associated with project. 330 POTENTIAL' DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT - ? L, R + L + L + L + L + L, R + L + L + L + L, R + L, R + R + R + L, R + L, o R + L TYPE OF IMPACT Percentage of work force income spent locally or in region. Impact on personal income of area residents. Various sectors of the economy would benefit. 6. Public Services Demand for educational services. Demand for police and fire protection services. Effects on existing services and transportation facilities. Demand for sewer and water facilities. How costs for public services will be incurred and funded. Demand for judicial and health services. Need for planning at various levels. Energy Hydropower is a relatively pollution-free, renewable resource. Its use prevents impacts of alternatives. Project could reduce and/or replace dependence on fossil-fuel based power. Project may add over 1000 MW of generating capacity to region. Large shortages of electrical energy could have a serious eco- nomic and social impact. Could provide a stable, long-term, lower-price supply of electricity. Community Attitudes Tensions could exist between residents and immigrants project may attract. Lack of recreation, social isolation, and close quarters may place stress on workers. 331 POTENTIAL' DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT ? L, R + L + L + L + L + L, R + L + L + L + L, R + L, R + R + R + L, R + L, o R + L TYPE OF IMPACT Percentage of work force income spent locally or in region. Impact on personal income of area residents. Various sectors of the economy would benefit. 6. Public Services Demand for educational services. Demand for police and fire protection services. Effects on existing services and transportation facilities. Demand for sewer and water facilities. How costs for public services will be incurred and funded. Demand for judicial and health services. Need for planning at various levels. Energy Hydropower is a relatively pollution-free, renewable resource. Its use prevents impacts of alternatives. Project could reduce and/or replace dependence on fossil-fuel based power. Project may add over 1000 MW of generating capacity to region. Large shortages of electrical energy could have a serious eco- nomic and social impact. Could provide a stable, long-term, lower-price supply of electricity. Community Attitudes Tensions could exist between residents and immigrants project may attract. Lack of recreation, social isolation, and close quarters may place stress on workers. 331 APPENDIX C APPENDIX C · COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF SOCIOECONOMIC CATEGORIES AND VARIABLES 1 I. POPULATION A. Population levels 1. Historical 2. Present 3. Projected 4. Component of Change (births, deaths, in-out migration) B. Ethnicity, Culture, Religion C. Population Distribution (city, borough, state) by: 1. Age 2. Sex 3. Race 4. Occupation (general) 5. Education a. Retired, wage, salary b. Sector, activity c. Employment D. Population Density E. Family/Household Characteristics 1. Extent 2. Marital Status 3. Migration patterns a. mobility/stability b. point of origin c. out/in migration 4. Length of Residence a. in house b. in community c. in state 5. Place of work (commuting distance) F. Attitudes Toward Change/Economic Development G. Projections 1 Each of these categories and variables will be addressed to the extent that data and information allow and to the extent that they are relevant for the purposes of this analysis. II . COMMUNITY A. General Description/Facilities B. Organizations (clubs, churches, veteran groups) C. Political Involvement D. Information/Media E... Social Interaction F. Entertainment G. Projections 336 III. HOUSING A. Historical Info (growth rate) B. Type 1. Single family 2. Multi-family 3. Mobile home 4. Recreation Facilities 5. Transient Facilities * Variables to be considered for above a. number of units b. quality c. cost/prices d. vacancy rate C. Vacancy Rate D. Status 1. Renting 2. Buying 3. Own 4. Other E. Land availability F. Zoning/Building Regulations (& patterns) G. Financial Climate (incentives/disincentives) H. Real Estate Activity 1. Sales 2. Construction 3. Plans Projections 337 IV. PUBLIC SERVICES & GOVERNMENT REVENUE A. Government Structure/Organization 1. Towns 2. Cities 3. Boroughs B. Government Services c. 1. Water Supply and Treatment 2. Waste Water Treatment 3. Solid Waste Disposal 4. Police Protection 5. Legal System (courts, retention facilities) 6. Fire Protection 7. Health Care (including Social Services) 8. Parks and Recreation 9. Libraries 10. Education (day care, vocational, others) 11. Public Transportation 12. Roads and Highway System 13. Telephone Service/Communication 14. Electric Power Service * Variables to be considered for· above a. Service area b. Usage figures c. Deployment patterns (distances/response times) d. Capacity figures e. Condition/quality f. Relevant standards g. Occurrence rates h. Plans for expansion i. Government expenditures Tax Base and Revenues 1. Taxes a. personal i • rates i i. base b. industry i. rates i i • base c. Sales i . rates ii. base d. other 338 IV. c. (cont.) 2. Other revenue sources 3. Government debt {borrowing capacity) D. Projections 339 V. ECONOMIC BASE A. General Description (History and Area Trends) B. Total Work Force C. Employment Multiplier D. Output Multiplier E. Major Basic Industry Description 1. Construction 2. Mining 3. Agriculture 4. Timber and related products 5. Manufacturing 6. Fishery 7. Oil and gas 8. Transportation i. Rai 1 ii. Air iii. Motor transport iv. Marine 9. Public Utilities 10. Communications 11. Wholesale trade 12. Retail trade 13. Finance, insurance, real estate 14. Services 15. Public Administration (Federal, State, Local) 16. Tourism * Variables to be considered for above a. hi story b. statistics {present sales, prod., etc.) c. emp 1 oyment 1. 1 abor force 2. percent of total work force 3. payro 11 4. average wage rate d. resource base (land use) e. service area f. usage figures g. capacity h. condition/quality i. product value j. marketing patterns k. relative to state and U.S. 1. future outlook 340 V. (cont.) F. Conclusions G. Projections 341 VI. HUMAN RESOURCES (Labor & Income) A. Historical Labor Changes B. Emp 1 oyment 1. Present Profile (employment by sector) a. absolute b. percentage 2. Multipliers a. basic industry to non-basic industry b. export trade sector c. services 3. Length of work week 4. Seasonality C. Occupational Staffing Patterns by 1. Sector/Industry 2. Ethnicity 3. Sex 4. Unemployment 5. Percentage of work force 6. Wages (selected occupations) D. Working Conditions and Absenteeism E. Union Presence F. Unemployment for Area 1. Age 2. Sex 3. Race G. Income 1. Hi story 2. Per Capita Income a. General b. Sex c. Ethni city 3. Source a. Wages/salaries b. Social Security 4. Subsistence income (moderate standard of living) 5. Consumer Price Index {CPI) H. Projections 342 VI I. LAND USE A. Historical/General B. Land Tenure (ownership) c. Existing 1. Forestry 2. Agriculture 3. Mining 4. Timber 5. Native Lands 6. Federal 7. State 8. Parks 9. Oil and Gas 10. Unexploited Natural Resources 11. Industry/Commercial 12. Urban 13. Rural 14. Residential 15. Military 16. Transportation * Variables to be considered for above a. acres b. value c. ownership d. management plans e. historical trends f. percentage of total D. Population Density E. Land Use Plans and Control 1. Public 2. Private 3. Municipalities 4. Borough 5. Flood plains F. Projections 343 VIII. RECREATION A. Utilizing Fish & Wildlife Resources 1. Sport Fishery a. All species 2. Wildlife a. Caribou b. Moose c. Black Bear d. Brown Bear e. Mountain Goats f. Sheep g. Wolverine i. Waterfowl~ Birds j. Other Furbearers * Variables to be considered for above 1. Historical 2. Present a. area {acres and 1 ocat ion) b. effort (visitor days/# of visitors) c. Success {harvest) d. Resident (pt. of origin/% of total) e. Non-Resident {gen. geo .• pt. of origin/ %of total) f. Species (stats relative to State) g. Subsistence (personal consumption/ business) h. Trophy i. Management Plans i. Regulations ii. Revenues (total/relative to state/flow of money) iii. Enforcement (ways/numbers/capacity) B. Not Related to Fish & Wildlife Reserves 1. Water Sports {canoe, kayak, rafting) a. Historical b. Area 1. effort 2. resident/non-resident pt. of or1g1n 2. Land Sports {hiking, picnicing, climbing) a. Historical b. Area 1. effort 2. resident/non-resident pt. of origin C. Other 344 VIII. (cont.) D. Related Business 1. Guides ( #!$) 2. Air Taxi Operators (#/$) 3. Lodge Owners (#/$) 4. Land Owners (#) E. Projections 345 APPENDIX D D -PROBABILITY AND DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTED VARIABLES BY STUDY AREA The purpose of Work Package 2 is to collect and compile data on the socioeconomic conditions for the development of a socioeconomic profile that can then be utilized in the preliminary impact studies (Work Package 3), and the forecasting of socioeconomic conditions (Work Package 4). For the purposes of this project, socioeconomic conditions have been broken down into socioeconomic variables. To this point, the selection criteria for the variables have been described in general or generic terms, and their relevance to the study areas have been explicated. Table D is both a refinement of this process in that it lists the various components of the selection criteria, paying par- ticular attention to the needs of the Susitna Project, and is an initial assessment of the probabi 1 ity and degree of impact for those variables likely to be impacted. The format of the tabl~ is such that it is divided into four major groupings: categories and variables; selection criteria; study areas; and disqualifying factors. The function of the table is to illustrate the following: (1) selection criteria relevant to individual variables; (2) socioeconomic conditions, described by variables, that are considered to be susceptible to change as a result of con- struction and/or operation of a Susitna Project; (3) the probability of a variable being impacted (either high or low) and the degree of impact, if an impact were to occur as a result of construction and/or operation, for each of the four study areas; and (4) variables that will not be examined, regardless of merited worth, due to either contractual constraints or unavailabi- lity of data. A more detailed explanation and discussion of the major groupings follows. 349 0.1 -Selection Criteria As discussed in previous sections, the categories and variable~ listed in Table D were initially selected from: (1) other socioeconomic impact studies; (2) literature concerning socioeconomic impact assessment; (3) socioeconomic data pertinent to the Susitna Project; and {4) in-house expertise. The various components of the selection criteria listed in the table delineate the specific reason(s) whay a variable will be addressed. For example, present population figures {Table D, Item IA 2 ) are of importance because: {1) such information is required for the implementation of the forecasting methodology (the criteria for the selection of a methodology are discussed in Subsection 2.5); (2) it is necessary for the development of a comprehensive socioeconomic profile; and (3) it is a variable that could potentially be impacted due to the construction and/or operation of the Susitna dam. These are all indi- cated by an 11 X11 in their respective columns. A variable that has been identified as being potentially impacted has been deemed so based on: {1) an extensive literature reveiw of other hydroelectric projects in Alaska and the Lower-48 (Work Package 1, Work Items a, b, and d); (2) interviews and discussions with knowledgeable officials and personnel; and (3) in-house expertise. The remaining two columns, 11 Project Specific 11 and 11 Expressed Public Concern .. are not pertinent to the variable, 11 present population levels, .. but are so for other variables. For definition purposes, 11 Project Specific 11 is a term used to identify those variables that warrant con- sideration because of their unique and important role in Alaska, and to the Susitna Project in particular. This selection criteria is espe- cially pertinent to variables related to fish, wildlife, natural resources, and land ownership. Such variables are ordinarily not the primary responsibility of a socioeconomic assessment, but due to the potential social and economic implications, they are included. An example of such a variable is a phenomenon unique to Alaska, and there- fore is an issue that merits consideration. 350 Variables that reflect public concerns expressed through either APA public participation meetings or newspapers have been indicated~as such in the last column 11 Expressed Public Concern 11 • - Every effort has been made to ensure that all variables pertinent to the Susitna project will be addressed, without being over inclusive. D.2 -Study Areas Based on the same criteria used to determine if a variable will be potentially impacted, FO&A, Inc. has completed a preliminary assessment of impact probability and degree for each of the variables likely to be impacted in relation to the four study areas. If and when an impact occurs, it will have differing effects in each of the study areas. For this reason, the probability and degree vary from,one study area to the next. Table D illustrates our knowledge to date of both probability and degree. 11 H11 and 11 L11 refer to probability of impact, with 11 H" meaning that a particular variable has a high probabi 1 ity of being impacted as a result of the Susitna Project, and 11 L11 meaning a low probability. It should be understood that probability of impact is in no way an attempt at making value judgments, impacts could have either a positive or negative implications depending on one•s outlook. Degree of impact refers to the magnitude, with a 11 +11 signifying relati- vely large, and a 11 011 relatively small. Again, the positiveness or negativeness associated with a large or small magnitude is left to the discretion of the individual. 0.3 -Disqualifying Factors Disqualifying factors are those factors that would eliminate a variable from inclusion in the socioeconomic profile either because it is not 351 within the scope of our work (designated by a "x"), or because data appears to be unavailable for particular study areas {designate~numeri­ cally according to study area). 352 w (}"' w I. --·-· TAilLt."D PROBABILITY AND DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTED VARIABLES, BY STUDY AREA SELECTION CRITERIA u .,..... ...-..c ...... :::::1 >, til>, QJ a.. ...-c:cn > r-0 0 ,..... -a ttl-a .,..... ,..... +JQJ u QJN .,..... QJ +JO c...-.j.J .,..... VlC: .j.J .j.J u-a ,..... ..c U4-Ill 1- CATEGORIES c: u QJ 0 1-ttl QJ•r-QJ QJ 2:!~ .,...,_c U·.-.,..., u I-u VARIABLES O+J Ill I-0 QJ c..c: 0 E I-QJ QJttl s... 0 >< 0 a.. ,_ O..::E: O> a.. l/l LJJ u POPULATION ·--·-- A. Population levels - 1. Historical X X 2. Present X X X ----·- 3. Projected X 4. Component of Change (births, deaths, in-out miqrati<!n) X X X - B. Ethnicity, Culture, Religion X X ---c. Population Distribution (city, borough, state) by: 1. Age X X - 2. Sex X X - 3. Race X X --- 4. Occupation (general) X X 5. Education X X ·--- D. Popu 1 at inn Dens it.Y ---- E. Family/Ho~sehold Characteristics -·---.. - 1. Extent X X --·---·-... ·------ STUDY AREAS ' D I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS Local Regi anal .::.t. 1->, 0 .j.J ttl ttl ttl ttl 3 .,... QJ QJ QJ QJ ,..... 1-1-1-1-'+-·.-(Y') o:::( .:X: .:X: o:::( 0 ..Cttl ...... N (V') o::;t tti+J >,~*' >,'II >,~ >,'II QJ ,...... ttl -a -a -a "0 c.. ~,.,. Ci :::::1 :::::1 :::::1 :::::1 0 ttl .j.J .j.J .j.J .j.J u >'+- l/l l/l l/l l/l l/l o:::CO ·-· r--·-- ·-- HO H+ HO HO - HO H+ HO HO ---- HO HO LO LO 1,2 - HO H+ HO HO HO H+ HO HO HO H+ HO HO ' - HO H+ HO HO -- HO H+ HO HO ·i' ,, --. ..... --- -----· ---- H H LO LO 1_,_4_ ----- SELECTION CRITERIA STUDY AREAS DISQUALIFYING FACTORS ' u Local .,... Regional .-- ..0 ..:..: .-i :::1 s... >, >, ~n>, Q) 0.. 0 +J r-t:c::n > ttl ttl ttl ttl 3: .,.. r-00 .--o Q) Q) Q) Q) .--ra-o .,... .--+JQ) u QJN s... s... s... s... '+-•r-(Y) .,... Q) +-10 0...--+J .,... In c:::: <( <( <( <( 0 ..ora +J +J u-o .-..o U4-In s... .-i N M .q lti+J t: u Q) 0 s... ttl QJ•r-Q)Q) >, "'*' >,"'I >,"'I= >,=u Q) .-ttl . .., u 3~ . ..,.,e U•.-0 Q) s... u -o -o "0 -o 0.. ·..-o O+J In s... 5-0 o..c:::: :::1 :::1 :::1 :::1 0 ttl o E s... Q) QJro O..Vl >< 0 +J +J +J +J u >4-0.. ...... 0..:::!::: Cl > wu Vl Vl Vl Vl Vl <(O 2. Marital Status X X H H LO LO 3. Migration patterns a. mobility/stability X X X X HO H+ HO LO b. point of origin X 4. Length of Residence a. in house X X b. in community X X c. in state X X 5. Place of work (commuting distance) X X X X HO H+ HO LO F. Attitudes Toward Change/Economic Development X X II. COMMUNITY A. Community Facilities X X X HO H+ LO LO B. Organizations (clubs, churches, i' •I· veteran groups) X X HO L+ LO LO X c. Political Involvement X X D. Information/Media X X w ()1 ()1 III. E. Social Interaction F. Entertainment HOUSING A. Historical Info (growth rate} B. . Type 1. Single family 2. Multi-family 3. Mobile home 4. Recreation Facilities 5. Transient Faci 1 iti es * Variables to be considered for above a. number of units b. quality c. cost/prices d. vacancy rate c. Status 1. Renting 2. Buying SELECTION CRITERIA u •r-.-- .0 ...... ::I >. 11'1>, llJ c.. .--ern > ,_ 00 1-Cru "U ~"U .,_ r-u ruN •r-llJ +'0 a..-+J •r-VIC .j....l .j....l U"U r-.0 U4-11'11-c u llJ 0 ~-~ llJ•r-llJ Q} 39 ·.-,.c U•r-.,_., u 1-U O+.l VI 1-0 llJ a.c ~ 0 o E !... QJ Q)~ 0.. (/) >< 0 0.. ...... o.z Cl> LJ.J u X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS D I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS Local Regional ..:..: 1->, 0 ...., ~ ~ ~ ~ ::3: ·.- QJ llJ Q} Q} ,_ 1-1-1-1-4-•o-f") <( c:::( c:::( c:::( 0 .0~ ...... >.~ M oc:;t ~.j-..1 >,"!~;: >,'tl:o >,"'I QJ .-~ "U "U "0 "0 a. •r-Cl ::I ::I ::I ::I 0 ~ ...., .j....l .j....l ...., u >'+- (/) (/) (/) (/) (/) <(0 HO H+ LO LO HO H+ LO LO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO H+ H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO •i'l 'tf LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO w ()1 O'l IV. 3. Own D. Land availability E. Zoning/Building Regulations (& patterns) F. Financial Climate (incentives/ disincentives) G. Real Estate Activity 1. Sales 2. Construction 3. Plans PUBLIC SERVICES & GOVERNMENT REVENUE A. Government Structure/Organization 1. Towns 2. Cities 3. Boroughs B. Government Services 1. Water Supply and Treatment 2. Waste Water Treatment 3. Solid Waste Disposal SELECTION CRITERIA u .,.... .-- .a -:J >. 111>. Q) 0... r-ccn > .--0 0 .;;w <:! IU<:l .,.... ..-u QJN .,.... Q) ~0 a...-~ .,.... 111C ~~ U\:1 ,.... .a U4-111 1-c u Q) 0 1-IU Q) .,..... Q) Q) Q) ttl ·..-,..c::: U•r-. ....., u 1-u 6[§-0~ 111 1-0 Q) a..c 1-Q) Wttl 1-0 >< 0 0... ...... o...;:<: 0> 0...(/) wu X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS D I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS ' I Local Regional ~ 1->. 0 ~ IU IU IU IU 3: .,.... Q) Q) Q) Q) .-- 1-1-1-1-l+-•I"'"(V") <( c::( c( <( 0 .a.u ...... N CVl o;;t IU~ >.>a: >. 'll->.:u: >.'11 Q) .--~ "0 <:! -a -a a.. .,.... 0 :J :J :J :J 0 ttl ...., ~ ~ ~ u >'+- V1 (/) V1 (/) (/) <(0 H+ HO LO LO LO LO l+ H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO 'I' I' L+ H+ LO LO L+ H+ LO LO L+ H+ LO LO w U1 ""-' 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. * Police Protection Legal System (courts, retention facilities Fire Protection Health Care (including Social Services Parks and Recreation Libraries Education (day care, vocational, others) Public Transportation Roads and Highway System Telephone Service/Communication Electric Power Service variables to be considered for above a. Service area b. Usage fiqures SELECTION CRITERIA u .,.... .-- .0 ...... ::I >.. Ill>, <lJ 0.. r-COl > .--00 ~<ll -o IOU .,_ r-u <lJN .,.... <lJ +.10 a...-....., .,.... VIC: ....., ....., u-o ,.... .0 Ul+-VI!.. c: u <lJ 0 !.... tU <ll•.-QJ<lJ ~9 ·.-,..c. U·r-.,..., u !.... u 0+"' VI !.... 0 QJ o...c: o E !.... QJ <lltU s... Cl XO 0.. ...... O..::::E: O> a.. U1 u.J u X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS DISQUALIFYING FACTORS Local Regi anal ..:..:: !.... >.. 0 ....., tU tU tU tU 3 .,.... <lJ <lJ <lJ <lJ ....- !.... !.... !.... !.... 1+-•r-f") c( c( c( c( 0 .010 ...... N f") q IU+"' >,"!" >,"'I >,"'I< >,"'I <lJ .--I1J -o -o -o -o 0... .,.... Cl ::I ::I ::I :::1 0 tU ....., ....., ....., ....., u >'+- U1 U1 U1 U1 U1 c:x:o L+ H+ HO LO LO LO H+ LO H+ H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO H+ H+ HO LO LO HO LO LO LO H+ HO LO LO HO LO LO H+ H+ HO LO LO H+ LO LO H+ H+ H+ H+ ;· 'lj w <.n 00 c. Tax 1. 2. 3. c. Deployment patterns (distances/response times) d. Capacity figures e. Condition/quality f. Relevant standards g. Occurrence rates h. Plans for expansion i. Government expenditures Base and Revenues Taxes a. personal b. industry c. sales d. property e .• other Other revenue sources Government Debt (borrowing capacity) SELECTION CRITERIA u ...... ~ .0 ...-i ::l >, VI>, Q) 0. .-COl > .-00 .;:;(I) -c ro-c ..... ,....... u Q)N ...... Q) +-10 o..-+-1 .,..... VIC: +-1 +-1 u-c .-.o U4-VI !... t: u Q) 0 !... tU W•.-Q)Q) !':l9 "'I .J:: U•r-''I u !... u 0+-1 VI !... 0 Q) O..t: o E !... Q) Q)tQ !-Cl X: 0 0... ,....... O...::E: Cl > 0... (/) L.l.JU X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS 0 I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS Local Regional ..::.&. !... >, 0 +-' rtJ rtJ rtJ rtJ 3 .,... Q) Q) Q) Q) ,....... !... !... !... !... 4-•r-(V) c:( o::( c:( c:( 0 .0113 ...-i N (V") oc:t rr:l+-1 >,=t~o >,=tl >, 'tl: >,"'I Q) ,....... rtJ -c -c -c -c 0.. .,_. 0 ::I ::I ::I ::I 0 rtJ +-1 +-1 +-1 +-1 u >4- (/) (/) (/) (/) (/) c:(O LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO w Ul 1.0 v. ECONOMIC BASE A. General Description (History and Area Trends) B. Total Work Force c. Employment Multiplier D. Output Multiplier E. Major Basic Industry Description 1. Construction 2. Mining 3. Agriculture 4. Timber and related products 5. Manufacturing 6. Fi sher_y_ 7. Oil and gas 8. Jransportation L Rail ii. Air iii. Motor transport iv. Marine SELECTION CRITERIA u .,.... ,....... .D ...... ::l >. VI>, Q) 0.. .--c::cn > ,... 0 0 lfQ) ~N llS"O .,.... .--u •r-Q) +JO o.....-+-> •r-VI C:: .... .... u-o r-..0 U4-VIS... c:: u Q)O s... rc QJ•r-Q)CIJ ~~ .,...,_c: U•r-.,..., u !-U 0+-' VI S... 0 ClJ 0... c:: o E s... Q) QJI'C s... 0 >(O c.. ....... O..:::E; Cl ::> o.. VI wu X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X x· X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS D I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS I Local Regional ..:..: s... >. 0 .... llS llS llS llS 3: .,.... Q) Q) Q) Q) ...-s... s... s... s... 4-·r-f"') c:( c:( c:( c:( 0 n rc ...... N M <:::t rei+-' >,~~o: >.~1 >.~ >.~1 Q) ,... rc "0 "0 -o -o 0. .,.... Cl ::l ::l =' =' 0 rc .... .... .... .... u >'+- VI VI VI VI VI c:(O LO H+ HO LO H+ HO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO HO LO ; ' I H+ H+ HO LO H+ H+ HO LO H+ H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO w en 0 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. * Public Utilities Conmunications Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance. insurance. real estate Services Public Administration (Federal, State, Local) Tourism Variables to be considered for above a. history b. statistics (present sales, prod., etc.) c. employment 1. labor force 2. percent of total work force 3. payroll SELECTION CRITERIA u .,.... ~ .0 .--4 ;::, >. Ill>, QJ 0... ,..... c:: O'l > ,..... 0 0 ~QJ "Q 1'0"0 .,.. ..-u QJN ...... QJ +lO 0..---.j...l ...... VlC:: .j...l .j...l u-o r-.0 U4-IllS... c:: u (lJ 0 S....ta QJ.,... QJQJ 29 ·.-,..c. U•r-'o;-) u s... u O+l Ill s... 0 (lJ o.c:: o E s... QJ (Uta s... 0 XO 0... ...... O...;:E: Cl > Cl.. (./) LJ.J u X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS 0 I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS ' Local Regi anal ,:,{. s... >. 0 .j...l tO tO tO tO 3: .,.. QJ QJ QJ QJ ,..... s... s... s... s... 4-•r-(V) c( c( c( c( 0 .Ota .--4 N M .._,.. ta+l >,:tt;: >.,'tl >.'tt:: >.,'tl QJ .-ru "Q -o -o "Q 0. .,.. Cl :::l ;::, ;::, ;::, 0 tO .j...l +l .j...l .j...l u > 4- (./) (./) (./) (./) (./) c(O LO H+ HO LO H+ H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO HO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO LO LO LO LO H+ H+ HO HO 'II' ,, SELECTION CRITERIA STUDY AREAS DISQUALIFYING FACTORS u Local Regional ..... ...- .0 ~ ..... :::J ~ ~ >-, Vl>-, QJ 0... 0 r-C::Ol > 1'0 n:l 1'0 1'0 3: .,... ,....... 00 ~QJ u ClJ QJ QJ QJ .-- n:I"O .,..... r-u QJN ~ ~ ~ ~ 4-.,.....,.., ...... QJ +-'0 a..--+J ..... VlC:: c:I:: c::( c::( c:I:: 0 .OrO +J +J u -o .-.o U4-Vl~ ..... N M q 1'0+-' c: u QJ 0 ~ n:l QJ.,... QJQJ >-,"'to >,=tt >-,=~~o >,=tt QJ r-rO QJ n:l 'I'"') ..c: u·.-... u ~ u -o -o '0 "0 a. .,... Cl 6~ 0+-' Vl ~ 0 QJ o..c:: :::J :::J :::J :::J 0 1'0 ~ QJ QJrO s... 0 >< 0 +J +J +J +J u >4- 0... ....... a..::<: Cl > 0... (/) LJ.J u (/) (/) (/) (/) (/) c::(O 4. average wage rate d. resource base (land use) e. service area f. usage figures g. capacity h. condition/quality i. product value j. marketing patterns k. relative to state and U.S. 1. future outlook VI. HUMAN RESOURCES (Labor & Income) A. Historical Labor Changes X X B. Employment 1. Present Profile (employment by sector) X X X X LO H+ HO LO I' a. absolute b. percentaqe -- 2. Multipliers a. basic industry X X X X LO H+ HO LO w Cfl N c. D. E. F. G. b. export trade sector c. services 3. Lenqth of work week 4. Season a 1 i t_y Occupational Staffing Patterns by 1. Sector/Industry 2. Ethnicity 3. Sex 4. Unemp 1 o_vrnent 5. Percentage of work force 6. Wages (selected occupations) Working Conditions and Absenteeism Union Presence Unemployment for Area 1. Aqe 2. Sex 3. Race Income 1. History SELECTION CRITERIA u .,... ..... LJ .-i :::l >. Ill>, ClJ 0.... ,...... 1:: O'l > ..... 00 ,.... "0 ~"0 .,... ,....-+JQJ u ruN .,... ClJ +-'0 a..-+-' .,... Ill c:: +-' +J u "0 ,...._o U4-Ill s.... c: u Q) 0 s.... ttl W•r-ru <11 ~~ 't'"")...C:: U•r-'OJ u I-u 0+-' Ill I-0 QJ 0. c:: o E I-ClJ ru ~ s.... 0 XO 0.. 1-< 0..::!: O> 0.. U) wu X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS D I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS Local Regional ~ s.... >. 0 +J ~ ~ ~ ~ ::;c .,.... ClJ ClJ Q.l ClJ .-- s.... s.... s.... s.... If-•r-(V) c:( c:( c:( c:( 0 Llttl r-i N ("'} -.::t ~+J >. 'll.o >.'11 >.~ >.'11 ClJ ..... ttl -o -o "0 "0 0. .,... Cl :::l :::l :::l :::l 0 ~ +J +-' +J +J u >4- I/') 1.1) 1.1) I/') I/') c:(O LO H+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ HO LO LO ff+ HO LO LO H+ HO LO w "' w VII. 2. Per Capita Income a. General b. Sex c. Ethnicit.Y 3. Source a. Waqes/salaries b. Social Securit.v 4. Subsistence income (moderate standard of living) 5. Consumer Price Index (CPI) LAND USE A. Historical/General B. Land Tenure (ownership) c. Existing 1. Forestry 2. Aqriculture 3. Mining 4. Timber SELECTION CRITERIA u ...... ....-..c ...-I :::1 ~ In~ Q) 0... ....-ccn > ....-0 0 ..... -a 11:1"0 ..... ....-....,Q) u Q)N ...... Q) +-10 0...-..., .,.... tnt: ..., ..., u-o r-..0 U4-InS... c u Q) 0 s... 11:1 Q) .,.... Q) QJ Q) 11:1 .,....., .t: U•r-.,., u s...u -t-IC 0+-1 In s... 0 QJ O.t: o E s... QJ (1)11:1 s.. a ><O 0... >--< o... L: O> 0... Vl wu X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS 0 I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS Local Regi anal ~ s... ~ 0 ..., tO tO tO 11:1 3 ...... Q) Q) Q) Q) ..- s... s... s... s... 4-•r-(V) <:( c::c: <:( <( 0 ..011:1 ....... ~~ M "'1 11:1+-1 ~"*" ~"*" ~"ll QJ ..-11:1 -o -o -o -o 0. .,.... Cl :::1 ::l :::1 :::J 0 11:1 ..., ..., ..., ..., u >4- Vl Vl Vl Vl Vl <CO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ HO LO H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO L+ l+ LO LO ·11 ,, LO H+ LO LO H+ HO LO LO l+ l+ LO LO SELECTION CRITERIA STUDY AREAS DISQUALIFYING FACTORS u Local Regional .,.... ~ ..0 ~ ...-1 ::I 1->-, >-, Vl>-, Q.J 0.. 0 ....... ,..-c:cn > ttl ttl ttl ttl 3 .,.... ,..-0 0 ,.... ~N Q.J Q.J QJ Q.J r- tti'"O ·.-~ +JQ.J u 1-1-1-1-'+-•r"(Y") .,.... Q.J +JO O.r-........ ,.... Vl c: ex: ex: ex: ex: 0 ..Ott! .............. u '0 r-..0 U4-VII-r-1 N C"') c:;t rtl+J c: u Q.J 0 1-rtl Q.J·.-Q.JQJ >-, "*" >-,"'I >,'Ito >.=u QJ .-rtl ~9 'I"") ..C. U•r-. ....., u 1-u '0 '0 '0 -o 0.. •r-Cl O+J Vl 1-0 Q.J 0. c: ::I ::I ::I ::I 0 ttl 0 E 1-Q.J QJn;) 1-0 X 0 ....... ....... ....... ....... u >'+- 0... ...... a..:;: O:> 0.. l/) wu l/) l/) l/) l/) l/) ct;O 5. Native Lands X X X H+ H+ LO LO 6. Federal X X X H+ H+ LO LO 7. State X X X H+ H+ LO LO 8. Parks X X 9. Oi 1 and Gas X X LO LO LO LO 10. Unexploited Natural Resources X X H+ H+ HO LO 11. Industry/Commercial X X LO H+ HO LO 12. Urban X X LO LO LO LO 13. Rural X X LO HO LO LO 14. Residential X X LO LO LO LO 15. Mi 1 itary X X LO LO LO LO 16. Transportation X X X L+ H+ LO LO * Variables to be considered for abo e a. acres b. value ownership ,, c. d. management plans e. historical trends . f. percentage of total w m U1 VIII. D. Population Density E. Land Use Plans and Control 1. Public 2. Private 3. Municipalities 4. Borough 5. Flood plains RECREATION A. Utilizing Fish & Wildlife Resources 1. Sport Fishery a. All species 2. Wildlife a. Caribou b. Moose c. Black Bear d. Brown Bear e. Mountain Goats f. Sheep SELECTION CRITERIA u .,.... ......- ..0 ...... ::I >. Ill>, (lJ 0.. ......-c 01 > ,--00 .;;(l.l ""0 11:3"0 .,... .---u Q)N .,.... (lJ .j..JO o...--+J .,.... lilt: .j..J .j..J U"' ,..._o U4-Ill s.. c u cue s.. n:l ClJ .,.... Q)(l.l 28 ·..-,..c:: U•r-. ....., u s..u Q.j..J IllS-0 (lJ o..c o E s.. ClJ <lJ11:3 s... 0 xo 0.. ........ a..:;: Cl > a.. Vl wu X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS D I S~QUAL I FYI NG FACTORS Local Regional ~ s.. >, 0 .j..J 11:3 11:3 11:3 11:3 3: .,.... ClJ (lJ (lJ Q) .---s.. s.. s.. s.. 4-•r-(Y) c{ c{ c:( c{ 0 ..On:! ...... N M q 11:3-j..J >,'l~o >,'ll >,"tt: >,'ll Q) ..... n:l ""0 "0 "0 "0 0.. .,.... Cl ::I ::I ::I ::I 0 11:3 .j..J .j..J .j..J .j..J u >4- Vl Vl Vl Vl Vl c:(O L+ HO LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO LO HO LO LO LO H+ LO LO LO H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO ·' ., H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO w en en - * g. Wolverine i. Waterfowl, Birds j. Other Furbearers Variables to be considered for above 1. Historical 2. Present a. area (acres and location) b. effort (visitor days/# of visitors) c. Success (harvest) d. Resident (point of origin/% of total) e. Non-Resident (gen. geo. pt. of origin/ %of total) f. Species (stats relative to State) SELECTION CRITERIA u .,.... ~ .0 ....... :::::1 >, Ill>, QJ Cl.. ,....-C::O'l > ,.-oo ,.... -gN 10 "0 .,... ,.-+-IQ.I u .,... Q) +-10 o...-+-1 .,.... VIC:: +-1 +-1 u-o ~.o U4-VIS... c:: u Q) 0 s... 10 Q.l•r-Q)Q) ~8 .,.., ..c U•r-.,.., u s... u 0+-' Ill s... 0 Q) o.c:: o E s... Q) Q.JIO s... 0. ><O Cl.. ........ Cl..::E: O> Cl.. V1 I.J.JU X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS DISQUALIFY IN FACTORS G ' Local Reg i anal ~ s... >, 0 .j...J 10 10 10 10 3 .,... QJ Q) Q) Q) ....-s... s... s... s... 4-•r-(Y") o::( o::( c:( c:( 0 .Ottl ....... N (V) <::t 10+-1 >,"''"' >,"'). >,'U< >,'II Q) ..-10 "0 "0 -o -o 0. .,.... 0 :::::1 :::::1 :::::1 :::::1 0 10 +-1 +-1 +-1 +-1 u >'+- V1 V1 V1 V1 V1 o::(O H+ H+ LO LO HO HO LO LO H+ H+ LO LO SELECTION CRITERIA STUDY AREAS D I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS u Local Regional •r r- _() ..:><: ...... ::l "->, >, Ill>, Q) 0... 0 +J r-CO"! > ltl ltl ltl ltl 3: .,.. r-0 0 ~Q) ~N Q) Q) Q) Q) r- lti""'CI .,.. ...-u "-"-"-"-'+-•.-(Y) .,... QJ +JO a...-+J•r-UIC c::C c::C c::C c::C 0 ..010 ....., ....., U""'CI .-.a U4-IllS... ...... N M 'r:::t 10-4-J cu Q) 0 "-10 OJ·.-Q) Q) >,'lie >,=u >,'lie >,'41 Q) ...... 10 Q) rtJ ... .c U·.-.... u "-u \J <:1 <:1 "0 a. .,... Cl 6~ 0+-J IllS... 0 Q) o.c ::l ::l ::l ::l 0 ltl "-Q) Q)ftl "-0 XO ....., ....., ....., ....., u >'+-0.. ........ a...::;: 0> 0.. V1 UJU V1 V1 V1 V1 V1 <CO g. Subsistence (persona consumption/business h. Trophy i. Management Plans i. Regulations ii. Revenues (total rela- tive to state) iii. Enforcement (effort/costs) B. Not Related to Fish & Wildlife Reserves 1. Water Sports (canoe, kayak, rafting) X X X X H+ HO LO LO a. Historical b. Area 1. effort 2. resident/non-resident _pt. of origin w 0'1 00 2. Land Sports (hiking, picnicing, climbing) a. Historical b. Area 1. effort 2. resident/non-resident _Qt. of origin c. Other D. Related Business 1. Guides (#/$) 2. Air Taxi Operators (#/$) 3. lodJLe Owners (#/$) 4. Land Owners (#) Probabi lit~ of Impact Degree of Impact H = High l =.low + = relatively larg1 0 = relatively small 1Necessary for projections methodology 2As expressed through APA Public Participation Program 3 Numbers correspond to study areas where data may be dificult to obtain at disaggregated leve SELECTION CRITERIA u ..... ~ .0 ..-< ::1 >, VI>, Q) 0... ..... c::cn > ..-0 0 .... ~N 10"0 ..... ..-.j..)QJ u ..... QJ .j..JO n.~ ......, ..... VI C ......, .j..J U"O r-.0 u~ VI ~ c u QJ 0 1-rO QJ•.-QJQJ 2Q ·r"") .c u·.-. ....., u 1-u Q.j..J VI I-0 Q) o..c OE ~ QJ Q)rO s... Cl X 0 0.. 1-i c..::;: C> 0.. U1 LJ.J u X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STUDY AREAS D I SQUALl FYI NG FACTORS Local Regi anal ~ ~ >, 0 .j..J 10 10 10 10 3 ..... Q) Q) Q) QJ ...- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ •r-(Y) c:( c:( c:( c:( 0 ..Ott~ ..-< >,~ (Y) o:::t rU.j..J >,=tl: >, 'll< >,"'I QJ ..-tO "0 "0 "0 "0 Cl. ..... C) ::1 ::1 ::1 ::1 0 Ill .j..J .j..J .j..J .j..J u >~ U1 Vl U1 U1 U1 c:(O H+ HO LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO H+ H+ LO LO APPENDIX E APPENDIX E This appendix presents a chapter of a report prepared by the Overall Economic Development Programs, Inc. This is a nonprofit corporation "whose purpose is to develop and strengthen the Matanuska-Susitna Borough economy." The report from which this chapter is extracted was prepard as an account of work sponsored by the Farmers Home Administration and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Published in July, 1980, the report consists of three volumes: Annual Report {Volume I), Economic Conditions, Development Options, and Projections {Volume II), and Appendices (Volume III). Chapter 2 of Volume I, "Changes in the Economy 11 , -has been included in this report because it provides a good synopsis of the economic conditions and problems facing the Borough today. 371 CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY LOCATION The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is located in Southcentral Alaska. It covers a 23,000 square-mile area, approximately the same size as the combined New England States of Vermont, New Hampshire and Connecticut. Palmer, the seat of Matanuska-Susitna Borough government, is about 40 miles north of the City of Anchorage. HISTORICAL BRIEF AGRICULTURAL DOMINANT ECONOMIC FORCE UP TO THE 1960's. In 1935, two hundred families relocated here from the depression and drought- stricken Midwest. The purpose of the Matanuska Valley Colonization was not to develop commercial agriculture, but to determine the feasibility of settling potentially self-sustaining regions of Alaska. The highly structured community has a colorful history as the ''Matanuska Valley Colony," replete with picturesque farms worked by hardy families of Scandinavian stock. At the time of colonization, each of the 200 fam·il ies was awarded a 40 to 80 acre tract of land in the Federal Government sponsored program. Most of these 40 or 80 acre parcels were turned into individual farms. A farmers cooperative was fanned at the time of colonization, and served as a central political, social, and economic enterprise until the 1960's, when it gradually faded out of existence. During the first 20 years, the "co-op" operated a creamery, grocery store, dry goods store, feed and garden supply store, service station, auto parts house, farm equipment sales, and a bureau- cracy of several well-staffed offices. · In 1949, the Alaska Agricultural Experiment Station was established at Palmer. The advent of World War II and the consequent military build up in the Anchorage area created a market for commerci~l agriculture. With the tech- nical expertise offered by the University of Alask·a Experiment Station to the local farmers, commercial agriculture grew and reached a peak in 1961-1962, with 47 dairy farms and 22 vegetable-potato farms in operation within the Matanuska Valley. In the late 1960's, commercial agriculture fell steadily to a few operating farms. Today, less than a dozen farms are in operation, and commercial farming is relatively unimportant from . an economic point of view. The important qualities of prime farm land now are speculation and subdivision development potential. In 1964, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough was incorporated, forming a second- class Borough. The primary functions being education,. planning and zoning, and assessment and tax collection. The military complex in Anchorage purchased coal mined north of Palmer until the 1960 • s, when they converted from co a 1 to natura 1 gas from Kenai. This produced a sharp decline of employment in the Valley and an exodus of many miners, and adding to the general economic lull of the late 1960's. RAPID SUBURBAN GROWTH DURING MOST OF THE 1970's -THEN DECLINE. During the pipeline boom of the 70's, real estate and construction became a major industry in the Matanuska Valley. Growth was doubling every five years - the highest in the State. In this period, many new small businesses were started though many only lasted a few years. In the last year-and-a-half, over 100 businesses in the Valley have collapsed. Statistics released by the Department of Labor show that by the winter of 1979-1980, unemployment in Alaska was around 10 percent; Fairbanks was the 373 second highest with around 13%, and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough was first in the State with an official unemployment rate of around 20%. State officials concede that the actual unemployment rate in the Matanuska- Susitna Borough is much higher because the Department of Labor statistics represent only those people who are currently receiving unemployment insurance benefits. Not included in the Department of Labor figures are those persons with expired eligibility for unemployment insurance and those persons who are not actively seeking employment. These individua 1 s are described as "dis- couraged job seekers," all of whom remain as Borough residents (some unable to leave because of the poor home sale market). The Matanuska-Susitna Borough business community has been hard hit by the slump in economic conditions, blamed chiefly on the high unemployment rate among the Borough's some 20,000 residents. ACTIONS TO COUNTER ECONOMIC DECLINE. Early in March 1980, Matanuska-Susitna Borough officials and executives of ·utility cooperatives joined a group of local business people in an organized effort to solicit emergency State economic assistance for the Matanuska- Susitna Borough. Approximately 60 members of the organized group flew to Juneau to lobby for recognition of the Matanuska-Susitna area as an economic disaster area by the Legislature. The delegation presented some suggestions they felt the State could take (these were an extension of unemployment benefits, retirement of debts accumulated by the local government for school construction, increased revenue sharing by the State,1 and the deferment of some business loan payments. Little real relief has come to the Valley as the summer of 1980 begins. Prospects of Point MacKenzie development, Wi 11 ow Capital Site development, Susitna Dam Project, and natural resource development in the area remain only as prospects and no longer produce major speculative development in antici- pation of their occurrence. MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH NEEDS/PROBLEMS The problems are complex and based upon a number of forces impacting the Borough. The Matanuska-Susitna Borough has enormous recreational and industrial potential, but has serious problems; residents of the Valley are engulfed in what may be the most serious economic recession in the State. THE BOROUGH'S PROXIMITY TO ANCHORAGE PRESENTS A UNIQUE PROBLEM. With a population of 200,000, Anchorage is not only Alaska's iargest city by far (Fairbanks is next at 45,000, the capital, Juneau, is third at 30,000), but also the third fastest growing area in the United States. The region around Anchorage contains about 75% of the State's entire population. Anchorage's ability to expand is hindered by its combined geographic location and building limitations, therefore, much of its excess growth is overflowing into the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Any additional growth, which is requisite to the economic viability of the southcentral region, will further impact the Valley, whether from Anchorage or specific industrial or commercial activity within the Borough. 374 land speculation in the Borough caused by the prospect of moving the present capital from Juneau to a 100-square-mile site near the Borough community of Willow is one important factor lending to the economic instability of the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. Many Valley businessmen mortgaged their homes to expand their businesses in anticipation of bustling commercial activity, after voters chose in 1974 to move the State Capital. Equally disconcerting is the high rate of business failures, particularly in Wasilla, with a commercial vacancy rate of 40%, and other areas close to Willow. The anticipated demand in housing construction and retail trade created many new capital project and retail trade establishments with low dollar business volumes. Demand was not there. This situation has led to many businesses closing their doors or only maintaining minimum staffing, resulting in a mass transfer of residents who must work outside the Borough. Sixty businesses have failed in Wasilla alone in the past 18 months, and 15 firms in Houston. THE MAJORITY OF ECONOMIC PROBLEMS FACING THE BOROUGH ARE CAUSED BY THE PAR- TICULAR KIND OF POPULATION GROWTH WHICH IS TAKING PLACE. Despite the absence of employment, the population of the area has continued the growth pattern that started briskly in the early 1970 1 s. Between 1970 and 1976, the population expanded 138%. The annual growth rate has been 20% since 1970. While this has leveled off in 1979, it is anticipatecl_to rise again now that the state-wide economy is beginning to improve. Realtors and developers report that the Borough•s available housing is slowly being filled by newcomers, and they speculate that new home construction--at a virtual standstill the past two years--will start up modestly again in the spring. Anchorage residents and others continue to move to the Valley in search of 11 a different style of living." PRESENT GROWTH DOES NOT PAY FOR ITSELF. The Borough growth is anticipated to continue at a moderately high rate. This residential increase will continue to strain the ability of the Borough to provide such basic services as education, fire protection and road main- tenance. As the demand for services increases with population, the Borough•s tax base continues to run a deficit. Normally, the local property tax is the major source of local revenue; however, in terms of income, the Borough is unusually dependent upon the Federa 1 and State funds to pay for services: • Federal and State Government provides nearly 2/3 of the revenue {State 58%, Federal 5%) • Property tax 27% • Miscellaneous local revenue 9% • Service areas 1% 375' Approximate Borough expenditures are: I Schools 80% I General government 15% I Non-areawide services 3% • Service areas 2% Ordinarily, "lower 48 11 schools absorb about 60% of the local budget. The widespread nature of the Borough•s school population and other factors unique to Alaska result in higher education costs. The net result is that there are less funds for other services. The very high service costs are due to the widely spread residential nature of the growth. The great majority of expansion in the Borough continues to be generally of the type \..,hich does not pay for itself, since it is mostly residential. There is little industry to provide a diversified tax base. Approximately 90% of the growth is residential; only 10% is commercial or business related. The average home does not pay taxes in an amount equa 1 to the services it receives. For example, using the one predominant service, schools: 1 It costs about $1,500 on the average to send one child to school each tax year. 1 Taxes from an average home costing about $60,000 amounts to approximately $570. 1 The average home has about 1.0 to 1. 5 children. There- fore, it costs about $1,000 to $1,500 more per year to provide education than the average home returns in taxes. THE BOROUGH HAS CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT; IT FLUCTUATES MONTHLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND THIRD HIGHEST AREA IN THE STATE, AVERAGING ANNUALLY ABOUT 15%. In January 1980, it had the highest rate of unemployment among all the Boroughs, at 19.9% (Fairbanks was second at 13.5%). Research by State Represen- tative Pat Carney estimates the true total unemployment rate is between 46 and 51%. OEDP figures indicate a 26% unemployment rate. Whatever the rate, the shortage of work is clearly one of the most pressing problems; the Borough doubtlessly has one of the highest rates of unemployment in the nation. The rate of unemployment would be even higher if an increasing number of Borough residents did not commute at great expense to Anchorage for work. In 1970, about 20% of the Borough work force drove to Anchorage; by 1976, the number had risen to 32%. OEDP estimates, derived from the recently completed housing and eocnomic study, indicate that the current percentage is 36% (24% work in Anchorage, 12% use Anchorage as a transportation hub). Additionally, data indicates that less than 1.1 adults per family are employed as compared to the 1.5 Anchorage figure; in other words, because of location and other factors, only one adult family member is able to find employment. A greater variety and number of jobs must be created in the Borough. 376 The State Division of Economic Enterprise figures indicate that the ratio of 1978 Matanuska-Susitna Census Divison per capita personal income to U.S. per capita income is only 1.13. The State total is 1.39 ~nd Anchorage ratio is 1.56. Further, the family budget required in the Matanuska.-Susitna Census Division (1978) for a moderate standard of living is $27,374 compared with the average U.S. family budget of $18,622. This indicates it costs approximately 47% more than the average U.S. family of four for the same standard of living. The Alaska and Anchorage family budget required for a moderate standard of 1 iving (1 978) is $28,942 and $26,329, respectively. The Anchorage Census Division costs are 41% more than the national average. The average monthly wage per worker in 1978 for the Matanuska-Susitna Census Divison was $1,377, as compared to the State average of $1,595 and Anchorage's average of $1,599. The average unemployment rate (1978) for the ~1atanuska­ Susitna was 18.2%, compared to the State annual average total of 11.1% and Anchorage's average total of 8.3%. Matanuska-Susitna per capita income comparison to Anchorage indicate that the family budget requirements for a moderate standard of living are 4% higher in the Matanuska-Susitna. Data compiled by Economic Enterprise indicate the purchasing power of persons living within the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is 31% less than those persons living in Anchorage. The cost for maintaining a moderate standard of living in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough are high, income levels are low, and employment opportunities in the Valley remain poor. While the rate of growth is very high, having risen from a Matanuska-Susitna Borough population of 6,500 in 1970 to an estimated 18,536 in 1980, the Borough is basically rural, open, and the population is dispersed. None of its three municipalities has a population over 3,000. Wasilla, the population of which has doubled every two years for the past six years, had an estimated 1979 population of 2,148. Palmer, the only city with zoning, had a 1979 esti- mated population of 2,056. Houston is the smallest incorporated city at about 440 persons in 1979. Much of the population is spread out, 1 iving on one acre or larger unzoned lots. Past subdivision activity has been rampant. Between January, 1977, and November, 1977, a total of 460 subdivision plats had been either recorded or filed with the Borough. The average size of the plats is 2 acres. Thus, some 25,521 acres, comprising 12,824 separate parcels, have been subdivided in less than a four-year time frame. Although subdivision activity has stabilized, there are enough unoccupied parcels to satisfy the population growth for the next four to six years. It is this widely dispersed population which is endangering, not only the rural qualities of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, but the natural resources and natural beauty, which are fundamental to its economic vitality. The loss of farm land and fish and wildlife habitat continues. Another issue is the rapid loss of some of Alaska's finest agricultural land. Most of the State's produce farms are located in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. In 1979 the Borough produced approximately 70% of the State's crops, 79% of the livestock and poultry, and 50% of the State's milk. 377 Agricultural activity has been declining, however, because of increasing costs, limited markets, price competition, aging farmers and rising taxes. In spite of State efforts to help through a differential farmland assessment rate, the number of full-time Matanuska-Susitna farmers has dropped from 70 in 1965 to 30-40 in 1979. For some of the fanners and homesteaders, speculative land purchasers and subdividers have offered a financially attractive .,.retirement fund 11 in place of their land. A number of these farms had been uneconomic in size and rising land prices in the area prohibited expansion. The most suitable areas for agriculture are around Palmer and the Matanuska River Valley, and to the west along the Susitna River, the Kahiltna River, and the Yentna River. Within the Palmer-Butte area, approximately 30 farms have been subdivided within the last four years. Much of the good farm land abut- ting the Parks Highway between Willow and Talkeetna is in the path of sub- division growth. Other problems continue to persist. Welfare rolls have shown a marked increase, property tax delinquencies are up over last year, and office buildings and shopping centers are reporting higher vacancy rates. Stores are offering closeout sales, and the local newspapers are filled with foreclosure notices. A recently completed report by Northern Consultants, 11 A Study of The Economic Needs of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough 11 , March 1980, supported OEDP findings and, although implied in the above text, several facts are worthwhile mentioning. RECAP I Many businesses are construction related. virtually halted when availability of funds Veteran•s Administration and Alaska Housing ended. Housing construction for housing from State Finance Corporation was 1 There is a mismatch in the supply and demand for labor skill between Anchorage and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. 1 Work in Anchorage is not an option for many persons because of the distance (time, economics, safety, etc.). 1 Bank credit has tightened up, interest rates have gone up and accounts receivable have soared. 1 Businesses have the lack of operating capital even if jobs become available or demand increases. 1 The Matanuska-Susitna Borough •s tax revenues are not increasing because of the public•s inability to meet its tax obligations. A key economic factor causing hardship to the Borough remains the particular kind of growth with its unbalanced residential emphasis. 378 Residences do not fully repay in taxes for the services that they require. The Borough's consistently high rate of unemployment, partly a result of growth in response to the cyclical construction industry, is further compl i- cated by the large work force having to seek employment outside the Borough. Wages in the Borough are lower than for Anchorage or Juneau. With the population doubling nearly every five years; coupled with business instability, lack of employment opportunities, l.ower family incomes, and a lower standard of living, much information needs to be collected and analyzed to adequately understand this complicated situation. Sound economic decisions on how to apprqach these problems in a 1 imited time frame cannot be made without adequate and appropriate information. The economic program's thrust is to remedy these problems by diversifying the economic base. At the moment, business comprises just 10% of the tax base, with residences filling the remaining 90%. One objective of the program is to increase the percentage and variety of businesses in the Borough. Through these measures, it is hoped that employment will increase and that the tax base will become more sound. To help accomplish the strengthening and diversification of the Borough's economic base, the first of a multi-year program was established in 1979. The coordinated Matanuska-Susitna Borough/OEDP, Inc. program has begun to build a data bank of important planning information which will be used in the compre- hensive planning efforts. This is an important step in the efforts of meeting program needs designed specifically to gather complete and accurate economic data to be used in job-creating projects. The efforts of the Overall Economic Development Program provide the Matanuska- Susitna Borough new information to answer many important questions necessary to promote economic development. The data gaps are being identified. Infor- mation from the Housing Study conducted this year may result in communities being eligible to seek Farmers Home Administration grant assistance, HUD Block Grant assistance, or other aid. Several million dollars could easily be brought into the community. Although the amount of public funds _which might be expected to be invested in the Borough is difficult to define, an estimated 7.7 year-round jobs would be created for every $1,000,000 worth of single-. family dwelling investments. Since construction is seasonal, this would equate to approximately 15.4 six~month jobs. These figures were based upon calculations done by Jim Sullivan, Divison of Economic Enterprise, using 1969 data. The second-year program, in concert with the first year's development strategy, will continue to emphasize economic revitalization strategies, update inventories, fill data gaps, strengthen community .participation, institute promotion programs, complete economic profiles, and add specific projects to achieve the goals and objectives. 379