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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA372ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SU$ITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES FIRST SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT (JANUARY -JUNE,1980) SUBTASK 7.05: SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS SUBMITTED BY FRANK ORTH &ASSOCIATES,INC~ TO TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENTAL SPECIALISTS,INC. AUGUST 15,1980 rec-lJ.. lA.H\-"T'q (9lf MIKE MILLS (Ii' lY:'JI) ,So Ad3 ()O,'67'2 - ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS "Page List of Exhibits iii I.Introduction 1 II.Methodology 2 III.Literature Review 16 IV •Results and Discussion of Baseline Study 91 V.Impact Assessment 92 VI.Mitigation 93 VII.Summary 94 VI II .References 96 IX.Authorit i es Contacted 97 ii ARLIS Alaska Resources Library &Information ServIces Anchorage,Alaska .... II-l II-2 II -3 II -4 I II-1 III -2 I I 1-3 LIST OF EXHIBITS Socioeconomic Interview Guide Characteristics of Selected Socioeconomic Impact Studies Format for Compilation of Impacts from Relevant Energy Impact Studies Data Collection Guide,Alaska Socioeconomic Data Bibliography for Impact Studies Survey Characteristics of Selected Socioeconomic Impact Studies Profiles of Power Development Impact Studies Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Boardman Susitna Green Lake Marysville Lake Swan Lake Terror Lake Tyee Lake Solomon Gulch N.Fork Stanislaus Bad Creek 4 5 7 8 17 19 21 22 27 32 37 40 45 49 52 56 59 63 .... .... .... .... III-3a Impacts of Representative Power Development Projects: Potential Relevance for the Proposed Susitna Project 66 111-4 Alaska Socioeconomic Data Bibliography, First Edition,June 1980 73 111-5 Economic Data Collection Matrix 76 111-6 Forecasting Studies and Models Bibliography 88 iii - - .- I.INTRODUCTION An important element of the feasibility of the proposed Susitna Hydro- electric Project is the socioeconomic impacts created by its construction and operation.Such impacts are important not only in their own right,but also because of the intense socioeconomic concerns so prevalent in Alaska. The overall objectives of the socioeconomic analysis are to:(1) determine which socioeconomic conditions are most likely to be impacted and to what extent these conditions are likely to change;and (2)provide information that will aid in assessing the significance of the changes in socioeconomic conditions.The analysis has been divided into two phases. The first phase entails making preliminary determinations in (1).The second phase effort is devoted to providing for more rigorous deter- minations in (1)and to accomplishing (2).Phase I results are to be included in the license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Comnission (FERC)and Phase II is to be conducted while the license is under consideration.This phased approach helps to ensure that only the most relevant impacts are addressed in detail.The utilization of this approach will help produce results that are responsive to and consistent with the 1979 FERC 1i cens i ng requirements as well as to the needs of the citizens of Alaska. Phase I is composed of the following work packages: 1)Literature Review; 2)Socioeconomic Profile Development; 3)Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Studies;and 4)Forecast of Socioeconomic Conditions with the"Susitna Project. During January through June,1980,work effort focused upon Work Package 1 and the first part-of Work Package 4.The objectives Qf Work Package 1 were to:(1)review impacts of other power development projects and assess their potential relevance to the proposed Susitna Project;(2)identify sources of social and economic data and determine the quality of such data; and (3)determine what data "gaps"exist.The objective of the first part of Work Package 4 was to identify and review alternative forecasting methods. Work Package is complete and the first part (work item)of Work Package 4 is complete.This semi-annual report describes these Work Packages and their results.Although this report is intended to stand alone,the interested reader might wish to supplement his understanding of this report by reading the socioeconomic analysis procedures manual • 1 - I ) .. II.METHODOLOGY A.WORK PACKAGE 1:LITERATURE REVIEW Description Socioeconomic impact studies for-hydroelectric projects and other types of power projects similar to the range of proposed Susitna projects:-current major assessments of Alaska demographic:-social:-and economic conditions:-and literature pertaining to the Alaska soci ocultura1 env ironment were i dent ifi ed:-revi ewed,and evaluated.In addition,information developed in other Subtasks of Task 7:-and other Tasks of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project,were reviewed andused:o as available and appropriate.It was anticipated that some information from Tasks 1 (Power Studies),8 (Transmission)and 12 (Public Participation Program)would be relevant,and this data was to be accessed as it became available.Because this information was not available as of June 30, 1980,it will have to be incorporated into Work Package 1 at a later date.This work package was divided into four work items: a.Collection of studies; b.Impacts of similar hydroelectric projects; c.Identification,review,and assessment of data and infor- mation concerning Alaskan socioeconomic conditions;and d.Relevance of similar hydroelectric studies. Work Pack age 1 has been comp 1eted,and the methodo 1ogi es for work items are described below.The reader is also referred to Section III, Literature Review,and Section IX,Authorities Contacted,for supporting documentation to this discussion of Work Package methodology. Work Item a.:Collection of Studies Socioeconomic impact studies for:(1)hydroelectric projects Slml- 1ar to the range of poss ib 1e Susitna projects,and other types of pro- jects with major soci oeconomi c impacts;(2)current major assessments of Alaska demographic,social,and economic conditions;and (3)literature pertaining to the Alaska sociocultural environment were identified. Studies were collected in the following manner: 1.Consulted Frank Orth &Associates,Inc.(FO&A).and the Univer- sity of Washington (U.W.)libraries for studies and biblio- graphies.Both FO&A and the U.W.possess extensive collections of Alaska socioeconomic and economic data as well as biblio- graphies and studies pertaining to hydroelectric and other power projects,including methodologies. The primary reference source utilized to identify and locate relevant environmental and socioeconomic impact studies was EIS, 2 - ..... ..... ..... ..... i ) " Di ests of Environmental 1m act Statements.This is published by norma lOn esources Press.1S a roonthly publication which indexes and abstracts from ill statements issued by the federal government.Statements are catalogued beginning with 1977.The use of EIS greatly facilitated the search for rele- vant impact studies--.-- 2.Organizations contacted in efforts to obtain citations of rele- vant studies and/or copies of the studies included:U.S. Envi ronmenta 1 Protection Agency,Reg ion 10,Seattl e,WA; .Information Resources Press,Arlington,VA (publishers of EIS); Bonnevi 11 e Power Authority,OR;U.S.Corps of Engi neers,New England Division,vJaltham,MA;Puget Sound Power and Light Company,Bellevue,WA;and Washington Public Power Supply System,Richland,WA. 3.Persons contacted in efforts to obtain information concerning potentially relevant studies included c.P.Wolf,Ph.D.,editor of Soci a1 Impact Assessment,and Wi 11 i am Workman,Consul tant, Socioeconomic Analysis. 4.A Socioeconomic Interview Guide (see Exhibit 11-1)was developed for interviews with knowledgeable persons.This guide was implemented during a one week trip to Alaska and is described in the discussion of Work Item c.below . Work Item b.:Impacts of Similar Hydroelectric Projects The method for this work item was as follows: - 1.After identifying and/or acquiring potentially relevant impact studies,those most applicable for the Susitna analysis were selected to be reviewed in detail.These studies were selected based on criteria relating to the anticipated characteristics of the Susitna Project.Exhibit 11-2 summarizes this procedure for the studies reviewed. All studies selected to be reviewed dealt with the development of electrical generation facilities.All but two of the studies were of hydroelectric dam projects.The two other studies dealt with a large scale coal-fired generating facility and a large scale nuclear power project.These latter two were identified for purposes of comparison and supplementation. An attempt was made to review all recent hydroelectric projects in Alaska,both those in process or completed.The projects,by virtue of location,are relevant to the proposed Susitna project. The remainder of the studieS reviewed dealt with recent and/or large scale hydroelectric projects that have prominent features similar to the Susitna project. 3 r ...,. - r- i ..- -- .. EXHIBIT II-I SOCIOECONOMIC INTERVIEW GUIDE Frank Orth &Associates,Inc.is currently preparing a bibliography of socio- economic data for Alaska.This is the first step in a socioeconomic impact assessment for the proposed Susitna River hydroelectric project. Although the primary focus is on areas which could be directly impacted by the project,we are collecting data on all of Alaska,since the indirect effects of the project could possibly impact the entire state.We are inter- ested in all potential sources of socioeconomic data on Alaska,including computer files,books,government publications,and journal articles. (Interviewer can show interviewee a map of the proposed project area,the Data Collection Guide which details type of materials requested,and other pertinent information on the study,in order to enhance interviewee under- standing of the work package purpose.) * **** 1.Do you have a printed listing or card catalog of your Agency's (Department's,Group's,etc.)publications? a.If so,interviewer should access and record on Data Collection Guide (DCG).l ,.,., 2. b.If not,do you have a library I could look through? Do you have a printed listing of your computer files? a.If so,may I access --or can you describe the listings? (Interviewer should fill in DCG.) b.What data would be available to us?(i.e.,which data is not confidential?) c.Would it be possible to access confidential data in aggregated or coded form to protect confidentiality? .... - d.Would there be a charge for accessing this data? e.What procedures do we need to follow to access data? f.What lead time is required? 3 •.Can you recommend any other persons,agencies,etc.who might p.lso be helpful in identifying data sources? lIf the same data is available.at multiple sources,only one DCG need be ·fil1edout,r and·it should identify the multiple sources. 4 -1 J I J J i J I J .1 )J -]1 1 ]r-), • -.J (J'l ..I I 'I I I Hydroelectric Power Large scale Hydroelectri ,~(Over 1000 MW Capacity) I Recent ,~I ,(From 1977 on) In Alaska Remoteness Nuclear Power Fossil Fuel Power I Involves Anadramous Fisheries 1 Forei gn Involves Native American Groups c n::c: )=> ~n -Irn ;:;0..... VI -I-n .....til 3:m \J 0 x )=>-r,:::r:: Vl n ..... rn -I Vl o:J I rn -m VlI -I n -1m """1 en ..... 1-1 0-1 -0 .....rn I:z rno N tiln Vl ;0 C).....n -I ..... m 0 ;:;0 m 1-1 n )::>0:z 0:::::..... n CJrnm I Vl ~g rn .....:z -0 """1-1 til ..... -<rn I { In addition to the studies formally reviewed,a number of studies were initially perused as part of a screening process for study selection for eventual review. 2.After initially reviewing several studies,a format for com- piling the impacts from the various studies was created.The format is essentially innutline form subdivided into major impact areas.Due to the length and variety of the impacts, this format was easier to implement than a matrix chart would· have been.Exhibit II-3 illustrates the basic format with headings.The headings refer to major impact areas which either directly,indirectly,or potentially affect socioeconomic vari- ables. Attempts were made to separate construction versuS operating and maintenance related impacts.Due to the differences in the studies'treatments of impacts this was impractical to imple- ment.However,the description of the impacts generally provi- des sufficient information to make evident into which category they belong.One other important category associated with energy projects that became evident is impacts relating to transmission facilities. 4.Impacts of the projects that were unusual and/or analyzed in substantial detail by the researchers,and that appeared to be relevant to Alaska and the Susitna area,were highlighted by Jldiamonds Jl • - 3.Impact information was extracted from the studies and placed in the format shown in Exhibit 11-3. .- Work Item c.:Identification,Review,and Assessment of Data and Information Concerning Alaskan Socioeconomic Conditions The method for this work item was as follows: .....1.Developed a format for illustrating important characteristics of economic and social data bases and information.This format included location of data,form for access,frequency of coverage,latest data covered,area covered (statewide,SMSA,or community/village/town)and type of data (i.e.,population,pro- jected population,housing,projected housing growth,etc.) Exhibit II-4 shows this data collection format. As described in Work Item a.and shown in Exhibit II-l,a Socioeconomic Interview Guide was developed for use when inter- viewing authorities of Alaska economic and social data bases and condit ions. Both the Data Collection Guide and Interview Guide were imple- mented in Seattle (FO&A and U.W.libraries)and Alaska. Contacts included: - 2. ..... 3...... 6 r -- ..... -- -- rI r ~J EXHIBIT Il-3 FORMAT FOR COMPILIATION OF IMPACTS FROM RELEVANT ENERGY IMPACT SrUDIES PRoaECT:Title Lead Agency Date,Type of Study or Document Applicant or Responsible Office Descriptive Characteristics Generating Capacity Scope Cost Land Use and Features Wildl ife Aquatic Species and Water Quality Socioeconomic Categories Population .Housing Tax Base and Revenues Employment Public Services Community Attitudes Energy Cultural Resources Recreation Aesthetics COMMENTS:Pertaining to study format,scope,and quality. 7 - ..... ,.,.. ..... -- EXHIBIT II-4 DATA COLLECTION GUIDE ALASKA SOCIOECONOMIC DATA TITLE (Use TES Bibiography format:remember to include number of pages) LOCATION,CONTACT PERSON,TELEPHONE AND/OR ADDRESS FORM (i.e.,book,government publication,computer tape) EASE OF ACCESS (i.e.~free,in-library use only,pay for computer printout) DATA TIME FRAME (i.e.,1964 -1978) FREQUENCY OF REPORTING --CHECK APPROPRIATE CATEGORY(S): ONE-TIME-- ANNUAL (month of issue: QUARTERLY MONTHLY OTHER (specify) 8 ) - .- .... -- EXHIBIT 11-4 (cont.) DATA COLLECTION GUIDE Page 2 AREA COVERED --CHECK APPROPRIATE LISTING(S): ALASKA TOTAL (not broken down by regions) ALL ALASKA CENSUS DIVISIONS (by individual region) SELECTED INDIVIDUAL CENSUS DIVISIONS Aleutian Islands Anchorage Angoon Barrow-North Slope Bethel Bristol Bay Borough Bristol Bay Cordova-McCarthy Fairbanks Haines Juneau Kenai-Cook Inlet Ketchikan· Kobuk Kodiak KuskokvJim Matanuska-Susitna Nome--Outer Ketchikan Prince of Wales Seward Sitka Skagway-Yakutat Southeast Fairbanks Upper Yukon Valdez-Chitina-Whittier ~~-Wade Hampton Wrangell-Petersburg Yukon-Koyukuk OTHER (i.e.~components of census divisions,aggregations~and . .disaggregations)(specify): 9 EXHIBIT 11-4 (cont.) DATA COLLECTION GUIDE Page 3 CHECK ITEMS COVERED: ..... I .1 .- -- POP LANDI HOUSE EMPLOY BS TAX Population Projected population Other (specify) Land-use patterns Land-use projections Other (specify) Housing stock Single --Multiple Commercial Projected housing stock Price/rent levels Other (specify) Employment/unemployment levels Type of employment Income levels (personal) Projected employment/income Other (specify) Industry studies Business level and income Projected business trends Business activity variables (specify) Other (specify) Tax rates Tax revenues Projected tax revenues Other (specify) "... I 1 Includes commercial;residential,recreational,and wilderness. 10 ..... - - INFRA UTIL ED F&W 2 SOCIO REC EXHIBIT 11-4 (cont.) DATA COLLECTION GUIDE Page 4 Public facilities Projected public facilities Transportation facilities Projected transportation facilities Other (specify) Ut i 1ity rates Utility usage Projected utility usage Other (specify) Education enrollments Education facilities Education costs/revenues Projected education Other (specify) Fish resource use patterns Wildlife resource use patterns Other (specify) Attitudes toward growth Attitudes toward lifestyle and quality of life Other (specify) Recreational activity Projected recreational activity Other (specify) - .- ,.... I 2 Fish and wildlife employment 5 income 5 and business activity should be r~ported in those sections.The resource use section applies to resource levels 5 management 5 propagation,etc • 11 .... .... r- I i I i" i ..... i .... j I EXHIBIT 11-4 (cant.) DATA COLLECTION GUIDE Page 5 TYPE OF ANALYSIS REGRESSION TREND ECONOMIC BASE INPUT-OUTPUT ___~QUALITATIVE DISAGGREGATION STATEWIDE REGIONAL SUBREGIONAL DATA SOURCES UTILIZED PRIMARY SECONDARY (specify primary source if known) IS METHODOLOGY DESCRIPTION AVAILABLE? 12 ..... - - .... r a.Fairbanks Borough Planning Department b.Fairbanks Borough Corrmunity Information Center c.Alaska Northwest Pipeline Company d.Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce e.University of Alaska Economics Department f.University of Alaska Institute for Economic and Social Research g.Fairbanks Visitors Bureau h.Fairbanks Industrial Development Corporation i.First National Bank of Fairbanks j.Doyon Corporation k. Alaska Department of Energy 1.Alaska Power Authority ffi.Cook Inlet Region,Inc. n.Municipality of Anchorage Planning Department o.Municipality of Anchorage Economics Department p.Overall Economic Development Program,Inc. q.Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department r.Matanuska Valley Electric Company s.Matanuska Telephone Association t.U.S.Department of Agriculture u.Alaska Department of Transportation v.Alaska Department of Labor w.Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development 4.A format for organlZlng data and a bibliography were prepared. (See Section III.Literature Review,below,for examples and discussion.) 5.A follow-up notebook was developed which lists names of persons who may have further information and names or descriptions of documents still in press or studies 'still being performed. Dates for future contact and the type of data available are included in the notebook.Upon receipt of follow-up informa- tion,FO&A can update Data Collection Matrix sheets and Bibliography as shown in Section III.Literature Review,below. Work Item d.:Relevance of Similar Hydroelectric Studies .The project impacts identified and presented in Work Item b.,above, were assessed for relevance to Alaska according to geographic area and degree~This assessment yielded a list of impacts,by type,geographic area,and degree,which could be relevant for the preliminary impact studi~s (Work Package 3). This work item was conducted as follows: 1 •.Impacts designated by "diamonds"in Work Item b.were compiled according to type of impact.Ordinary impacts (i .e.,impacts commonly addressed by socioeconomic researchers and analyzed in little detail)were also compiled according to type of impact. 13 .... .... .- ..... .... r !I 2.A preliminary determination .of the most likely geographic distribution and degree of the diamond-designated impacts was made.Each designated impact was assigned to the (1)Upper Susitna area or (2)the railbelt and/or state and was judged to be relatively large and significant or relatively small and insignificant.(Note:As the socioeconomic analysis pro- gresses,the designation of geographic area and degree will be refined and made specific to each type of impact or set of impacts.) B.WORK PACKAGE 4:FORECAST OF SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SUSITNA PROJECT Description Assuming no hydroelectric development,socioeconomic conditions are to be forecast.It is possible that the forecasting methodology to be used in this work package will be borrowed directly from,or modified slightly from methodologies used by Alaska government or academic institutions.Further,relevant results already generated by acceptable methodologies are to be adopted.Where certain desired results are lacking,existing methodologies will have to be modified and implemented· to produce such results.This work package has been divided into six work items: a.Literature search b.Literature review and evaluation c.Development and application of methodology evaluation criteria d.Selection of studies and their results for adoption e.Methodology revision (if necessary) f.Implementation of methodology (if necessary) Work Item a.of this work·package has been completed.The methodology for this work item is described below.The reader is al so referred to Section II,Literature Review,and Section IX,Authorities Contacted,for supporting documentation to this presentation of Work Item methodology. Work Item a.:Literature Search To increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the search,this work item was coordinated with Work Items a.and c.of Work Package 1. This~work item was conducted as follows: 1.Energy development impact studies of Work Package 1,Work Item a.,were revi ewed for presence of forecast i ng methods.Those that contained potentially relevant methods were identified. ~.2~During the data source identification efforts of Work Package 1, Work Item c.,Alaskan social scientists who have participated in' forecasting .socioeconomic conditions were interviewed. Forecasting models and methods utilized by these persons were identified. 14 I " - ..... 3.C.P.Wolf,Editor,Sbcial Impact Assessment,was contacted in regard to forecasting methods.He provided citations and a bibliography of impact studies and methods.. 4.A list of studies containing forecasting methods and forecasting models was developed.Both Alaska and ilL ower 48 11 forecasting studies and methods were included on 'the list. 15 - - - ~ I III.LITERATURE REVIEW A.WORK PACKAGE 1:LITERATURE REVIEW Description As discussed in Section II.Methodology,Work Package 1 consisted of a literature review from two major perspectives: a.Collection and review of socioeconomic impact studies for hydroelectric projects and other types of power projects similar to the range of proposed Susitna projects. b.Identification of data on Alaska demographic,social,and econo- mic conditions. End products of this Work Package are (1)bibliographies of data and studies identified and (2)a systematic presentation of major attributes of the studies and data identified with particular emphasis on usefulness of these studies and the data for future Work Packages.The Work Package 1 literature review was comprehensive but not exhaustive.Bibliographies and data descriptions will be continually updated as work effort progresses on other Work Packages. Socioeconomic Impact Literature Review (Reference Work Items a,band d as described in II.Methodology,above) Work Item a. As previously mentioned in the methodology description under Work Item a.,part of the literature review involved a process of screening socioeconomic impact studies to determine which were relevant to the pro- posed Susitna project.Numerous studies were considered and/or perused to determine their applicability.As mentioned above,the search was made easier by utilizing the EIS reference periodical.The studies cho- sen for review are listed in Exhibit III-lo This exhibit also serves as a bibliography for the studies.Exhibit III-2 surrmarizes the selection criteria and descriptive elements for these studies.The number asso- ciated with each study refers to its order of presentation in this report. It is important to note that one project listed in Exhibit III-2 is in the process of being reviewed.This is the Washington Public Power Supply System's (WPPSS)nuclear generating project currently under constructi on at the Hanford Reservati on in Washi ngton state.Extens ive studies were done,both prior to construction and on an ongoing basis since construction began.Due to its scale,currency,and documentation, it is a valuable and re-levant study to include here.--As the requested materials arrive,the project's studies will be reviewed. The WPPSS studies and the Boardman study (also presented in Exhibit III-2.)are the only two that are not hydro-related projects.Their 16 -.U.S. -I U.S. .- U.S ..- -U.S. ~ U.S. ~ : U.S. - EXHIBIT IlI-l .BIBLIOGRAPHY FOR IMPACT STUDIES SURVEY A.Relevant Socioeconomic Impact Studies International Engineering Company,Inc.,Robert W.Retherford Associates, Division.December 1979.Tyee Lake Hydroelectric Project -Peters- burg &Wrangell,Alaska:Application for License Before the Federal Regulatory Commission for the Alaska Power Authority.Anchorage, AK 99502.2 vo1s. u.s.Bureau of Power,Federal Power Commission.March 1977.Bad Creek Project No.2740-South Carolina:Final Environmental Impact Statement.Washington,DC.361 pp. Department of Energy,Bonneville Power Administration.March 1980. Boardman Coal Plant and Associated Transmission,Adopted Rural Electrification Administration Final EIS (USDA-REA-EIS-77-4F). Washington,DC 20545.n.p. Department of Energy,Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.April 1980.Swan Lake Project No.2911-A1aska:Final Environmental Impact Statement.Washington,DC 20545.n.p. Department of Energy,Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. December 1978.Terror Lake Hydroelectric Project,Kodiak Island, Alaska:Application for License before Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for Kodiak Electrical Association,Inc.Washington,DC 20545.n.p. U.S.Department of Energy,Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.February 1979.Green Lake Project No.2818-Alaska:Final Environmental Impact Statement.Washington,DC.189 pp. U.S.Department of the Army,Office of the Chief of Engineers.January 1977.flydroe1ectric Power Deve-1opment,Upper Susitna River Basin, Southcentral Railbelt Area,Alaska:Final Environmental Impact Statement.Washington,DC 20545.398 pp. Oepartment of the Army,Corps of Engineers.March 1977.Marysville Lake Project,Yuba River,California:Draft Environmental Impact Statement.Sacramento,CA.358 pp. Department of Energy,Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.March 1978.Solomon Gulch Project No.2742-Alaska:Final Environmental Impact Statement.Washington,DC 20545.n.p. Depa.rtment of Energy,Federal Energy Regul atory Corrmiss ion.November 1979.~orth Fork Stanislaus River Project No.2049 -California: Draft Environmental Impact Statement.Washington,DC.223 pp. 17 - - .... - - - - ,~ - - EXHIBIT 111-1 (cont.) u.s.Department of the Army,Corps of Engineers,New England Division. September 1978.Dickey-L incoln School Lakes Project at Dickey, Maine,.Draft Environmental Impact Statement.Waltham,MA 02154 • 11 vols. B.Additional Literature Utilized Information Resources Press.1977-1980.EIS -Digest of Environmental Impact Statements.Arlington,VA 22209.Vol.1-#1 -Vol.4-#3. 18 EXHIBIT 111-2 CHARACTERISTICS OF SELECTED ,SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT STUDIES SELECTION CRITERIA I j DESCRI PTIVE ELEMENTS ..... -,-..;:;-;: u+, 0)-,-(J) s-r-U 0) 0)~~-,- 3:s-S- o S-<o 0)0) c..-0 U 3:...c:0)til >,..-..0 til >0.. U :r:3:e S-o...-,--,-::::l -,-::E 0 0)LL -lJ0 S-O)3:r-<oS- +'r-O ,......til 0 0)til Z l!J U <00 ,......<0 til c..::::l :::I 0)uo en ..:Y.0)LL UJ 0 tile r-III r-i r-i III e s-O)E e 0)'" 0)+'<0 0)<0 r-><0 Ol >u 0 O)S-eE r-+'0)-r-r-s--r-r-.'- s-OlO)0)0 c::(0 r-III 0-0 0)o s- PRO~IECT -0 s->us-E u III ><0 S->0) >,~2 0)lL-s::0)::::l 0 es::0 s::E ::c 0:::.................0:::z:LL ......c::(LL .........c::( I.Di ckey-Li neal n <>+<><>School "Lakes 2.Boardman <><>+ 3.Susitna ++++(>++ <>..<>+-<><>4.Green Lake 5.t~arysvi 11 e Lake <>+<><> 6.Swan Lake <>.<>+<><> 7.Terror Lake <><>+-<><><> 8;Tyee Lake <><>+<> 9.Solomon Gulch <><>+<> 10.N.Fork Stanislaus ~+ II.Bad Creek <>+<>'-. ~ WPPSS*+ . *Review in progress.+.<>. 19 Determining characteristic Other characteristic .... ..... .... inclusion is warranted by the fact that the impacts in general and the socioeconomic ones in particular associated with such projects require a high degree of detail and analysis.In addition,the scale of most of these projects is comparable to Susitna. Work Item b: The studies were reviewed utilizing the format shown previously in Exhibit II-3.Impacts are surrmarized into essential qualities.The revi ew process attempted to be comprehens ive without bei ng tr ite with regard to detail.The purpose behind the review was primarily to relate impacts to a socioeconomic context.The results of the review process are presented as Exhibit 111-3. Also,as part of Work Item b.,impacts particularly relevant to Alaska and the Sus itna area were i dentifi ed and have been hi gh 1i ghted using diamond-shaped markers.This work item is incorporated into Exhibit III-3. Work Item d• The results of this work item are presented in Exhibit III-3a.The impacts listed in this exhibit have been extracted from the profiles pre- sented in Exhibit 1II-3.The assessment of the profi les has yielded a list of impacts which could be relevant to the Susitna project.This list is by no means exhaustive and serves primarily as a guide for futher research and analysis in Work Packages 2,3 and 4.The impacts are listed in a generalized form and,like the profiles,must be related to the specifics of the Susitna Project and its environment.This process, to be conducted in Work Package 2,will permit refinement and further specification of the impacts as to degree and geographic area. Several of the types of impacts in Exhibit III-3a are not the pri- mary respons i b il ity of a soc i oeconomi c assessment.Some examples are recreation,aesthetics,and wildlife.These were included,however, because they do have implications relevant to socioeconomic analysis.It is expected that most of this type of information will be provided by other study team members. Impacts from the profi le of the Upper Susitna River Basin were excluded from the profile assessment process.All impacts cited therein are potentially relevant although the specific findings will not ~necessfiarilybe adopted by frartk,Orth ,&Associ ates,Inc.In·any case, most would be subsumed in some form or another in Exhibit 1II-3a. ..... Demo raphic,Social,and Economic Data c.as described in II.Methodo 0 Reference Work Items a.and The 'end~prQduct of theA 1aska socioeconomic data identification, review,and evaluation Work Item c.consists of two products: a.A bibliography of documents numbered in alphabetical order,and 20 ..... ..... ...... .... I J EXHIBIT 111-3 PROFILES OF POWER DEVELOPMENT IMPACT STUDIES 21 ..... ..... i I ! PROJECT:Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project at Dickey,Maine u.S.Army,Corps of Engineers,Waltham,Massachusetts September,1978,Draft EIS Located on the st.John River,Maine Two-dam hydroelectric project with a total holding capacity of 7.8 million acre-feet. Generating capacity -830 MW initially,and 380 MW will be added later. Estimated cost -$757.5 million at 3.3%irate $822.4 million at 6.4%irate. Project includes 365 miles of transmission lines. Land Use and Features Project would encompass 134,242 acres of water and land,of which: -88,650 acres of terrestrial land would become aquatic. -247 acres of agricultural land would be inundated. -81,946 acres of timberland would be lost. 278 miles of free-flowing streams and 30 ponds and lakes woul d be lost. One of the major wilderness areas in New England would be substantially altered. Would provide flood protection to 4,500 acres of agricul- tural land downstream of the project. Wildlife 36,893 acres of deer habitat would be destroyed,which could reduce deer population by 50 percent • Rare and unique plants would lose habitat,including the Furbish lousewort (Pedicularis firbishiae),which has been proposed for Rare and Endangered Species list. Increased access would lead to greater pressures from hunting. 22 ... -- ..... Aquatic Species and Water Qualitx Proj ect wou 1d a Her spec i es of fi sh from stream and small lake type to that of a large reservoir. Oownstream effects would raise temperature of water -may not .freeze. Socioeconomic Categories Population Increase significantly by an estimated 2,700 to 3,200 new residents,10 percent of which are estimated to stay after construction period. Earlier workers expected to bring families. 73 percent of the population of town of Allagash would be relocated.These families could experience economic, physical,psychological,and social problems from re 1oc at i on • 166 families would be relocated. Housing Major impact on town of Allagash,where majority of town would be inundated • Rents and market values in residential areas near project would rise,due to pressure from relocating families and influx of new workers. Preferred alternative to mitigate construction phase impacts is to construct scattered site temporary housing in or near existing housing areas. Tax Base and Revenues Slight increase in tax base during construction phase,or "boom period,"due to appreciated land values • Revenues would increase somewhat due to increased economic act ivity. Would not offset increased costs to governments. Tax losses on acquired land would amount to an estimated $97,000 for forest lands and $40,000 for town of Allagash. 23 Employment Project construction would employ an average 200 persons in winter and 900 in SUfilller. Project would take eight years to complete • .Ouri ng peak years 4 through 7,maximum number of workers would be 1,900 persons. Transmission line work would employ an additional 300-450 individuals in years 4 and 5. Project would provide $60 million in salaries. Would reduce employment in timber industry somewhat. Wages would be federal scale and,thus,adversely affect wages in other sectors. r"'", , -+ + Agriculture and forestry industries would be adversely affected by project's demand for skilled labor • .Most of work force would be hired locally. Project would add 350 to 550 secondary and tertiary jobs, primarily in years 4-7. Operation and maintenance of dams would require 68 workers,60 of whom would be hired locally. - .... Maintenance of transmission lines would add 21 jobs. Economy 200 miles of private logging roads would be inundated. 16 corrmerci a1 f acil it i eswoul d be relocated. Agriculture in area would benefit from reduced flooding • Timber placed on local market as a result of clearcutting could depress prices. Multiplier effects on local economy from $35 million spent locally on supplies for project over seven year period represents three percent of area's annual sales. Service sector could receive up to $25 million. Retail sector would experience increased·activity,al- though much could be of Ill ow quality". 24 - ..... ..... r I Lost timber production earnings,including wages,taxes, and income,would range between $206 and $311 million over the lOO-year project lifetime. Project could lead to localized temporary inflation. Availability of power may encourage industry to move in, but project is designed for peaking purposes. Timber industry in area would experience increased harvest costs due to inundation of service roads and large area to circumvent. Current timberland owners would incur large capital gains taxes. Present economic structure would be altered permanently. Public Services Educational system would need to accommodate 400 to 600 school children and could be easily done. Influx of workers and families would require increased social services. Three to nine additional policemen would be required. Judicial system would be strained,and fire department as well. Would extend shortage of health services. Planning is required to mitigate impacts. Increased traffic would require more road maintenance. Community Attitudes ..... ++ ++ Tension would exist between residents and immigrants. Lack of recreation,social isolation,and close quarters would put stress on workers. Present social structure would be altered permanently. New set of values and standards would replace,in part,old set • 25 .- - - - - ..... f I COMMENTS: Energy Project would produce 19 percent of New England1s peaking power needs by mid-1980's • Hydropower produces little noise,no pollution,and is a renewable energy source. Project is equivalent to 2.3 million barrels of oil yearly. Regulated river flows would benefit Canadian hydropower plants downstream. Cultural Resources 37 archeological sites and six historical sites would be lost. 41 historic sites would be in viewshed of transmission lines. Recreation Project would alter types of recreation available. Major portion of river available for white water canoeing would be eliminated. Hunting in area would increase,while game populations would decrease. Aesthetics Visual and scenic character of area would change. Transmission lines would affect scenic vistas. EIS form utilizes construction and O&M phase distinction as well as "immediate impact area"and "service area impact" designations • USFWS recorrmended against project because it lacked a fish and wildlife mitigation plan. 26 " ..... PROJECT:Boardman Coal Plant and Assoc i ated Transmiss ion Faci li:t i es Bonneville Power Administration,U.S.Department of Energy March 1980,Adopted Final EIS (Adopted Rural Electrification Administration,Final EIS,January, 1978). 550 MW coal-fired steam electric generating station near Boardman in Morrow County,Oregon • Includes construction of approximately 35 miles of trans- mission lines,a 1,400-acre cooling pond and a SOD-acre ash disposal area. Estimated cost with escalation is $450-500 million. Project is being coordinated with other major construction projects,e.g.,an Alumax aluminum facility. Land Use and Features Site is located within a 100,000 acre agriculture-industrial park owned by the state of Oregon. 97 percent of land for transmission line is located in Class VII and VIII land best suited for grazing,woodland,or wildlife. Impacts of transmission line will be minimal. Reservoir will provide storage for 11,500 acre feet of irri- gation water.Land suitable for high value crops will experience increased utilization. Loss of land due to project is insignificant. Associated impacts will be created by coal mining at distant sites and transportation by rail. 7,000 tons of ash per month will be produced and disposed of at site. Wind erosion of soil will occur during construction. Emissions during operation will be within Class II Federal standards. 27 J T T I T T ,I r r I r I r t , Wil dl ife Carty Reservoir will have a beneficial impact on wildlife via creation of riparian vegetation and habitat. No rare or endangered species will be affected by project. Aquatic Species and Water Qual~ Reservoir will be fi 11 ed and mai nta i ned by withdrawal of water from the Columbia River through existing structures. Withdrawal of water from the Columbia River will have minimal impact on river life (estimated maximum of 0.5%loss of aquatic organisms). Project will utilize a closed cooling system thereby avoiding thenna1 impacts to other bodies of water. Project will not affect the local water table. Socioeconomic Categories Population Area is experiencing significant growth due to industrial and agricultural expansion. Construction of project,coupled with construction of an Alumaxaluminum reductiori facility in area,could generate a population influx of 16,400,a number larger than the city of Pendleton. Depending on whether or not major facility construction is maintained after completion of project,population will be stable or decrease. Service population for area's growing work force will increase proportionally with a one year lag. No f ami 1i esor individuals will need to be relocated due to siting of project. Housing Demand for hous iog,both temporary and permane(lt"wi 11 largely depend upon whether other major construction pro- jects are in progress.If so,parti cipants may have to- attract workers from outside commuting area which would significantly increase demand for temporary housing. 28 ~T' T T T I + + Project participants will build temporary housing in short term and facilitate the construction of permanent housing. Demand for permanent housing in area will increase with or without the project. Care should be taken in not overbuilding stock,i.e., supply should fit demand. T T r .1 Tax Base and Revenues Taxes on coal trains will total over $100,000 per year in five states;$14,000 will accrue to local government in Oregon. Us ing 1975 wage rates and income tax 1aws,each worker will pay $2,665 to the Federal Government and $945 to the state of Oregon during construction period -average annual totals of $1,455,000 and $516,000,respectively. Plant operating personnel will pay an average $2,440 in federal taxes and $826 in state taxes -average annual totals of $364,000 and $123,000,respectively. Participants will pay $3,900,000 in local property taxes from 1975-1979. After start-up in 1980,local property taxes are estimated at $2,150,000 for 1980 and 1981,and will increase by 6 percent per annum. Employment tax schedul es,the average taxable income will be payroll of $48.4 million ,... .1 :1 r .1 -. Project will employ an average of 546 workers over a 4.5 year period with a peak work force of 780. Significant portion of workers will be temporary. Workers will be hired out of union halls in Pe'ndleton, Hermiston,Umatilla,Tri-Cities,The Dalles,and Portland. If other projects are under construction at same time, more workers will be hired from outside this area. Based on 1975 wage scales and construction worker's annual $19,700 for a total on-site spread over 4.5 years. Operation and maintenance of plant wi 11 require 150 per- manent workers with an annual operating payroll of,approx- imately $2.8 million. 29 I"i'",IiI 1'1"" I r r T r r r r Economy Project includes paving one public road and.a railroad spur to site. Participants hope'to avoid a "Boomtown"scenario. Secondary impacts will be significant because area is rural in nature. Public Services Demand for services wi 11 increase in Boardman with or without the project due to agricultural and industrial expansion in area. Infrastructure (water and sewer facilities)for permanent housing need to be expanded.Boardman has planned facili- ties to accommodate a population of 7,000 (present popula- tion is 700). Induced and occurring growth will require increased police and fire protection services. Current excess capacity all ows time for pl anning future expansion. Energy Consequences of a sizeable and prolonged shortage of electri- cal energy will have a serious economic and social impact on" the region: Unemployment will rise and economy in general will suffer. Would negatively impact irrigation agriculture and roost industries. Social services would suffer without a significant reduc- tion in the real standard of living in the region. "Reduction of poverty and increase of economic welfare are dependent on an increase in per capital personal "income. The standard of living and per capita income both are directly related to the per capita consumption of energy." Cultural Resources Project will have no effect on any historical sites. Archaeological sites in·area will be investigated. 30 T T T T .1 j cOt~MENTS: Recreation Project will not affect any recreation facilities. No part of project lands will be made available for recre- ational purposes. Aesthetics Noise and temporary aesthetic disturbances will be minimal due to remoteness of site.There are no residences~recre- ation parks or public areas within four miles.Nearest road- way is seven miles away. Remoteness of setting helps minimize impacts. Extensive mitigation procedures are planned~especially regard- ing socioeconomic impacts. Prime concerns are social and economic in nature~not physical. 31 !"f" I :1 T rr II T .,... 1,I I r r r PROJECT: ++ Hydroelectric Power Development Upper Susitna River Basin Southcentral Railbelt Area,Alaska Office of the Chief of Engineers Department of the Army Washington,D.C.20314 Responsible Office:Alaska District Corps of Engineers Anchorage,Alaska 99510 January 1977,Final EIS Proposed two-dam hydroelectric project with approximately 1400 MW capacity. Includes construction of access roads,364 mi les of trans- mission lines and facilities,and recreational facilities. Estimated first cost of project:$1.5 billion. Land Use and Features 55,000 acres for 84 miles upstream of Devil's Canyon would be inundated. 6100 of the 8200 acres required for transmission lines would be cleared. Dams would be built to withstand an 8.5 earthquake (R i chter scale)centered 40 miles away.Area contains seismic faults. Project would have significant impact on natural features of area,especially as relates to potential for wilderness designation and scenic river classification.Area and river would probably both qualify. Project would prevent future mineral extraction on inundated land. Options for land use of transmission corridor land would be 1imited. Values of natural resources would be significantly impacted by construction of roads. Wildlife Migratory patterns of ·caribou would be impacted especially between calving and summer ranges. 32 r I T r,I r ·Moose would be directly impacted~as caribou,by loss of habitat. Greatest impact would result from increased hunting effort due to increased accessibility of area. Subc1imax growth on transmission line corridor would benefit wildlife. A general impact would occur by "ripple effects"through the food chain or wildlife "web". Aquatic Species and Water Quality 50 miles of river downstream of the project would suffer general channel degradation. Transmission facilities would add to increased siltation of rivers and lakes in nearby areas. IJReduction of existing surrrner sedimentation peaks should have a beneficial effect on anadromous and resident fish popula- tions for some distance downstream from Devil's Canyon Dam." Channel modification to enhance salmon spawning could be part of project. E1 imi nate downstream f1 oodi ng vm i ch is detrimental to salmon spawning. Increase turbi dity and introduce "gl aci a1 f1 our"(suspended sediment)in river downstream of project. Impoundments will mainly impact fisheries upstream of project. May be able to establish fisheries in reservoirs although steep walls are not conducive to fishery development. Unlikely any migratory species could be established due to problems with high level dams. During periods of excessive run-off,increased nitrogen supersaturation could harm fish. Project would impact vegetation .and fish in tributary creeks above dams. According to a 1974 study,an estimated 24,000 chum,5,200· pink,1,000 red,some Chinook,and between 4,000 and 9,000 coho salmon migrated into the 50 mile section of the Susitna between the Chulitna River and Devil's Canyon during a seven week period (July 23 to September 11). 33 T ' -I~.I ~ r:: rr :1 r r .1 -r r r Due to natural barriers,no salmon presently migrate above Devil's Canyon. Overall effects on downstream fisheries would be limited by techniques of release. During construction,water would be rerouted and flow regul ated. Socioeconomic Categories Population Population in the Railbelt area is expected to increase with or without the project.The report states: "Construction of the project is not expected to have any long-range effect on the overall population growth,but is rather designed to fulfill presently projected needs of a grow- ing population as one alternative means of producing power which will have to be pro- vided in one way or another." Housing Temporary campus for construction workers would be built. Inmigration of a few construction ~'/orkers'families to nearby towns would cause some impact. During O&M only a few families and workers would stay on and take up permanent res idence • Tax Base and Revenues Not addressed. Employment Project would anployHOO men during peak construction period (April through October). Economy Seasonal nature of construction of project would adversely impact communities during the winter. Impacts on local communities would be temporary in nature (i.e.,occur during ~onstruction phase). 34 ·. Ff',i I '"r I T T T r" II f T r r :I r r I r rI "A 10 year Devil1s Canyon-Watana hydroelectric development program would have an economic impact on the Southcentral Railbelt area that would be felt to a greater degree during the construction phase of project development..• The proposed .••project will not create large blocks of excess electrical power for heavy energy-consuming industries."If this is desired,more energy is required. The project is "designed to serve population needs --not to stimulate growth." Project would not affect river transportation below Tal keetna. Public Services "Various community,borough,state,and private facilities and agencies would be impacted to various degrees." Increased accessibility to area near project would require additional law enforcement and fire prevention services. Community Attitudes Not addressed. Energy Hydropower cou ld replace foss il-fu el based power in Fairbanks. Project would create a renewable non-polluting energy resource equivalent to 15 million barrels of oil. Cultural Resouces Archaeological potential not known. Project would inundate one historical site. Recreation Reservoir would flood nine of 11 miles of whitewater section of Devil's Canyon. Project would substantially increase impacts on resources affected by outdoor recreational activities. Recreational developments would eventually include vis itor centers,boat launching areas,campgroundS,picnic areas, trail systems,etc.- 35 -------~----------~~------------------------- •,Initial annual visitation estimated at about 77,000 persons. , Access roads,dams,and transmission lines would impair visual quality of area. "What is now a natural and scenic area showing little of man's influence would be impacted substantially."Area pro- bably would qualify for wilderness designation and National Scenic River classification. Recreational roads and f aci 1it i es • Aestheti cs opportunities creation of would be project increased by access related recreational r r T T ! ,I r r COMMENTS: Project would prevent various forms of pollution (heat, air,noise)from alternative types of energy generation. Replacement of fossil-fuel based power in Fairbanks could help "all ev iate the severe winter ice fog and smoke problems in that areal!. Descriptions of most impacts are very qualitative and not sub- stantiated. Socioeconomic part is very weak. 36 T TI, "'1"'. I I !'j ,I T J n- :1 T T T r r f PROJECT:Green Lake Project #2818 -Alaska Federal Energy Regulatory Corrmission February,1979,Final EIS Applicunt:The City and Borough of Sitka,Alaska 16.5 MW hydroelectric dam on Volopad River,10 miles south of city of Sitka. $41.9 million estimated total cost. Land Use and Features Project would encompass 1,585 acres. ~ould destroy 1,020 acres of forested land. Severe erosion potential during construction. Construction of eight miles access road would impact 67 acres. ,~Project would facilitate access to mineral claims in area. ~Project is located in active seismic area. Wildlife Four bald eagle nests would be disturbed. 60 acres of Sitka deer habitat would be eliminated. 825 acres of river bottomland would be inundated,reducing available wildlife habitat. ~Vancouver Canadian geese sites would be eliminated. Aquatic Species and Water Quality Increased turbidity would occur during construction period. Size of lake would increase by 830 acres to 1,000 acres. Three miles of Volopad River would be inundated eliminating nearly all accessible spawning habitat for brook trout, thereby causing a decline in trout stocks. 37 T I T T I T ~ I,I T T r Salmonids would be adversely affected downstream by sedimen- tation during construction. Ouring O&M,turbidity would be less than at present. Little,if any,downstream effects. Socioeconomic Categories Population Due to dearth of housing _for sale or rent,the high cost of living,and ease of air transportation to major cities, very few workers would relocate and bring families. Population would increase by 175 to 200 persons as a result of project. Housing Existing conditions very tight and expensive. Workers would be housed either in leased hotel space or a camp near site. Tax Base and Revenues $36,600 in revenue over three years would accrue to city due to four percent sa 1es tax,assumi ng 80 percent of construction workers·expenditures are taxable. Increased revenue expected to offset additional costs to government. Employment 50 to 150 workers would be employed during three year construction phase. O&M would employ less than 10 persons. Lack of skilled construction workers in Sitka means majority of workers would be lIimported ll • Economyr r + Project would increase personal income of res idents slightly. Assuming workers spend $380/month,or 15 percent of $2,525 monthly wage for 3,010 man-months,$1,143,800 would be generated to business establishments. 38 r .... I~ Benefactors of spending would include restaurants,drink- ing places t drug stores,men's apparel stores,sporting goods stores,and personal service establishments. Public Services Increase of estimated 23 school children could be easily accommodated. Project would lead to some increased demand on police and fire services. Community Attitudes Not addressed . Energy Project would allow applicant to place on "stand-by"plans to install a 5.5 MW diesel generator (with attendant benefits). Project would reduce the need for operating an 8.6 MW diesel generator located near city with its attendant noi se and pollution. Cultural Resources No impacts cited. Recreation Increased access to area would facilitate hiking and hunting activities in area. Aesthetics .... .... COMMENTS: What is a serene wi lderness area would beccme a noisy con- struction site and man-made lake . Project would be visible primarily to aircraft t which are numerous in area. Project is very small and isolated • 39 -. - ~J PROJECT:Marysville Lake Project,Yuba River,California U.S.Army,Corps of Engineers,Sacramento,California' March,1977,Draft EIS Two-dam hydroelectric project creating 6,640 acres of reservoir,or 916,000 acre-feet. Capacity:1,350 MW with capability to add 900 MW more. Cost:$1 billion. Land Use and Features Maximum 8,140 acres would be lost,including 1~530 acres of grassland and agricultural land. Would change 20 miles of river and streams to a 6,640-acre 1 ake. Ownership patterns would change. May II improve ll or preserve approximately 14,350 acres. Potential effects of dam on seismic activity (noted as i nc 0 nc1usiv e)• Nearby land uses would change due to increased opportunities for recreation and irrigation.(Secondary impact.) Wil d1 ife Loss of 7,320 acres of wildlife habitat and 12 miles of riparian vegetation. ,..,. 600 deer adversely affected. 100 turkeys displaced. Pressures on wildlife would increase due to growth,development~and agricultural production. impact.) subsequent (Secondary ....., Aquatic Species and Water Quality 20 miles of river and tributary streams fisheries would become a lake fishery. Alter downstream flows and temperatures (O&M). 40 ..... - Increased sedimentation and turbidity of water during construction. Fish hatchery and spawning channel would be constructed and a spawning gravel management program would be instituted for downstream areas.- Regulated flows,suitable timely discharges of regulated temperatures,coupled with hatchery and downstream control would 1ead to overall increase in river productivity. Salmon --10 percent of River king salmon would would lead to overall salmon. spawning and nursery area of Yuba be lost,but enhancement program increase of approximately 70,000 ..... ..... - Steel head --enhancement program would offset adverse effects and increase stocks by approximately 10,000 • Shad --would benefit from river regulation and enhancement. Resident fish --largemouth and smallmouth bass could be established in lake,as well as bluegills.Rainbow and brown trout would require planting program. Estimated benefits of enhancement program:$3,720,000 per year accruing to commercial and sport fishermen. Estimated costs of enhancement program:$1,260,000-2,000,000 depending on i rate used. Evaporati on woul d reduce river volumes 22,000 acre-feet per year. ~ocioeconomic Categories Population Maximum 4,752 estimated increase due to inmigration of new workers and fami 1i es (three persons per fami ly per new worker)• 500 people and 13 businesses would be relocated. Increased opportunities for irrigation,recreation,land development,and new industry would create secondary growth-inducing impacts. Hous ing 160 units would be relocated or acquired. 41 ,. I T T T T Tax Base and Revenues Loss of $198,720 of revenue per year to local government bodies. Remove 2.2 percent of county's assessed val uation,or 6.6 percent of assessed land area. Reduce flood prevention expenditures for downstream governments. Revenues would increase over time due to appreciation of land values associated with recreational and agricultural development.(Secondary impact.) Employment Maximum 3,520 workers on site (in year 6). Represents five percent increase in area work force. Maximum 1,935 jobs available to local workers. 45 percent of work force would be new to area,or 1,584 maximum new workers. Operation and maintenance would require 40·full-time and· 10 part-time employees. Economy Irrigation rights may be altered. Reduced flooding downstream and availability of water for irrigation would increase agricultural productivity. Flood damages would decrease from $345 million to $9.3 million per year. Opportunities for recreational development would lead to increased construction act ivity and attendant bus inesses. (Secondary impact.) Public Services School population would increase by maximum 1,109,or seven percent of existing school-age population in year 6 (.7/new family or worker).. Police,fire departments,and other services would need to expand to accommodate growth. 42 " 1 r Substantial impact in residential centers from influx of workers :and relocating individuals.Existing conditions are already tight. 25 miles of electric lines and seven miles of telephone lines would be affected. 25 miles of roads would be inundated.Replacement would lead to overall upgrading of routes,however. Community Attitudes Project would alter character of area,especially in higher population density with attendant problems. Extensive social structure and social pattern changes would result • EnergY' Project would replace two existing hydro facilities (total capacity:56 MW). Would result in net energy capacity of approximately 1,300 MW initially,and approximately 2,200 MW ultimately. Cultural Resources 2 cemeteries would be relocated. Of the 430 known prehistorical and historical sites,245 would be inundated or disturbed.Remainder would change ownership. A representative sample would be preserved or displayed at a vis itor center. Old powerhouses would be preserved as well. Recreation r r [ r r, +.Stream fishing and white water boating in immediate area wou ld be 1cst. Six small recreation sites would be established. Project would add 235,000 recreation days/year initially,and approximately 600,000 da,Ys/year ultimately.'- Increased recreational opportunities relating to hunting, camping,picnicing,swimming,fishing,and boating. 43 T J T rr" II r.•....:J '. r r r COM\1ENTS: Aesthetics Project would alter rural and visual character of area. Drawdown marks around·reservoir would average four feet and reach a maximum of 19 feet. Constructi on period would degrade air quality somewhat and increase ambient noise level. Noise impacts would be due to changes in land use and human activity,not to changes in noise sources or patterns. (Secondary impacts during O&M). Assessment attempts to quantify in monetary terms,impacts on fisheries and recreation. Distinguishes between construction and operating and maintenance (O&M)phases. 44 rr LI iT" .1 T T r r r .I PROJECT:Swan Lake Project No.2911 -Ketchikan,Alaska Federal Energy Regulatory Commission April,1980,Final EIS Applicant:Ketchikan Public Utilities 22 MW hydroelectric dam on Falls Creek and Swan Lake. Construct 30.5 miles of transmission lines. Construct port facility and access roads. Capital investment cost -$80.9 million. Land Use and Features Project would use 2,448 acres • 80,000 acre-foot reservoir would cover 1,500 acres,of which 460 acres would change from terrestrial to aquatic environ- ment. Lose 743 acres of Sitka spruce and Western hemlock. Wildl ife Construction activity including hunting,trapping,and noise would scare away bear,deer,and wolf. During operation and maintenance,impacts would occur due to (1)habitat modification,and (2)habitat limitation. Bald eagles in area may be adversely impacted. Overall impact not substantial. Aquatic Species and Water Quality Loss of 3.5 miles of lake spawning area used by Dolly Varden and Kokanee would result in some decline in stocks. r :1 r r r ..+Sediment runoff and water di vers ions woul d adversely impact salmonids and eggs. Port facility would have little impact. -Mitigative measures could include stocking lake and estab-. lishing new spawning areas. 45 i ;1 I ..... ..... Socioeconomic Categories Population Impacts concentrated in City and Borough of Ketchikan. Not many families expected to mi grate--if a 11 workers were from outside (unlikely),fewer than 25 percent would relocate with family. Housing Existing stock adequate • Tax Base and Revenues Assuming 80 percent of workers'expenditures are spent in Ketchikan at 4 percent city sales tax,revenue would be $15,200 over 3 years. Tax Base and Revenues Assuming 80 percent of workers'expenditures are spent in Ketchikan at 4 percent city sal es tax,revenue would be $15,200 over 3 years. Some additional revenue would occur,due to personal pro- perty tax on construction equipment of contractor (hard to estimate).. Expenditures expected to be offset by revenues. Employment Three year construction phase. 53 to 185 workers at site;average 100. 60 percent would be Alaskans (by law),if qualified. Specialized labor would be "imported". $2,525 average monthly wage. 15 to 20 day work periods at site • During O&M,10 persons would be employed. Economy Effects and impacts would center in Ketchikan. Bulk of supplies,however,would likely be imported to site. 46 ·. i""'" I ml'J9l!l, .... Estimated $342~OOO wou1d be spent in Ketchikan over three years,if 25 workers relocate and spend 15 percent of month ly wage. Estimated $135~OOO would be spent in Ketchikan over three years,if 15 men for five days/month @ $SO/day for food, lodging,and vacation. Public Services If migration occurs as mentioned,28 school children would be added to local system which can easily acconmodate up to 700 more;i.e.,little impact. Campsite for workers is outside police jurisdiction; 1ittl e impact. Might be some problems with parking in Ketchikan if workers bring cars. Community Attitudes Not discussed;little impact due to isolation of site. Energy +Project would allow applicant to retire existing diese1- driven generator to reserve status. Hydropower benefits include renewag1e,non-polluting energy source. Cultural Resources Project would inundate one 10~cabin dating from 1940's to 19S0's --judged not signifi cant;does not meet historic criteri a. Petrog1yphs in area may be disturbed. Wi ers at Leask Cove may be historic and may be disturbed. Recreation Hike-in trail access would be constructed. Site would include boat dock,picnic,toilet,and interpre- tive facilities. 47 ~ I .... - ..... COMt1ENTS: Construct ion act iviti es wou ld preclude area for recreation purposes. Aestheti cs Transmission lines would impair some scenic vistas from ocean spots. Change natural setting to man-made scene. Project is very small,but EIS deals with Alaskan topics. Setting is remote;most impacts discussed are direct • 48 - - - - -- .... .... PROJECT:Terror Lake Hydroe1ectric Project,kodiak Island,Alaska Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Application for Project License No.2743,December,·1978 Applicant:Kodiak E1ectrical Association,Inc. 20 MW hydroelectric dam. 78,000 acre-feet storage capacity. $81 million estimated total capital investment. Land Use and Features Part of project area lies within Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge. Rest of project includes land owned by state,borough,and a Native village corporation. Will increase size of lake from 270 to 850 acres. 580 acres wi 11 be inundated and 70 acres cl eared for li nes,. roads,and other facilities. Wil dl ife Loss of wildlife habitat and construction activities will have negative impact on Kodiak bear,mountain goats,beaver, and Peregrine falcon. Construction impacts include noise,physiological stress,and will affect wildlife survival rates. O&M period unlikely to have much impact on wildlife. Increased trapping and hunting in area would result from increased accessibility affecting otter,red fox,weasel, deer,and brown bear populations • Aquatic Species and Water Quality Construction of dam and clearing of right-of-ways will have minor impact on aquatic species,unless it occurs during fall spawning season. River productivity coul d actually benefit from flow regul a- tion,which would prevent freezing and flooding. ADFG is considering a hatchery below project to take advan- tage of flow regulation • 49 would loca 1 .... .... .... - .... .... No fish in Terror Lake presently • Dam would affect turbidity,velocities,temperatures,super- saturation of gases,and sedimentation downstream. Average annual river flow at mouth would be reduced by 35 percent. Intertidal zone would be monitored. Socioeconomic Categories Population Negligible impact;slight temporary increase could be expected. Housing Workers would be housed at construction camp near site. Tax Base and Revenues Revenues may increase slightly. Employment Construction of project would create 225 jobs,which would be filled mainly by Alaskans • 75 percent of work force would be skilled labor. One or two full-time jobs would be created during O&M phase. Economy Short-term (i.e.,construction phase)benefits accrue to local economy --mainly to merchants, suppliers,and transportation sectors. Project could encourage industries dependent on reliable energy to make long-term investments in area • Salmon fishery could potentially benefit from enhancement projects associated with project. Public Services Little impact,due to isolation of project and workers. Community Attitudes Not addressed,and perhaps not applicable. 50 ,.... .. .... - COMMENTS: Energy Primary impact is that project would 'increase applicant's overall available electrical energy. Project would replace expensive diesel-generated electrical energy. Project would "save"approximately 20 million barrels of oil over 75 years. Cultural Resources No historical sites would be impacted,although there may be archeological sites in area. Recreation Public access would be restricted to project area. Aesthetics Isolation of project makes impacts negligible,except for transmission lines. Three waterfalls would be adversely impacted. Although noise would occur during construction phase,project overall would reduce ambient noise level by replacing diesel generator. One letter noted that,concerning fi shery enhancement,perfor- mance would depend to a large extent on the intent of operation; i.e.,its stated purposes. Assessment does not quantify much data,nor is it specifi c in procedures,although this could be due to the fact that the pro- ject and impacts are of such a small scale. This was an application,not an EIS. Project is very small and very isolated. 51 - .... .... PROJECT:Tyee Lake Hydroe 1ectr ic Project - Petersburg &Wrangell,Alaska Federal Energy Regulatory Commission December 1979 Application for Project license for the Alaska Power Authority 20 MW hydroelectric facility with 10 MW additional capacity planned. No dam will be constructed initially.(Is included as part of 10 MW addition.) Tyee lake will serve as reservoir. Project includes 81 miles of tranmission facilities of which 69 will be overhead and 12 submarine cables • Cost in 1980,with a 6.5%interest rate and a 7%per year inflation allowance,estimated at $53 million. Land Use and Features Project will encompass 4,500 acres. - + + + 1,250 acres will be disturbed by construction activities. Transmission lines will cross some LUD II land (land to be managed in a roadless state). Transmission facilities will cross 39 rivers and streams,and occupy 1,675 acres of which 289 is private property. The transmission facilities utilize Itl ow productivity land areas where poss ib 1e --perhaps thereby enhanci ng an other- wise non-productive area." Hi gh probabil ity exists that one or more earthquakes of a magnitude of 7.0 or greater on the Richter Scale would occur during the project's lifetime. Powerhouse facilities and Tyee Lake are located in the Tongass National Forest. No road access to Tyee lake will be constructed. Helicopters will be used extensively to mitigate impacts. 52 ~ I ..... Wildlife Predominant impact on wildlife will result frolll increased accessibility of area to recreationists. Short-term impacts are related to construction activities and are proportional to the "overall carry capacity (the popula- tion an area will support without undergoing deterioration) of areas adjacent to project facilities,"i.e.,density of each wildlife species. Falcons and bald eagles may be disturbed. Constructi on camps ite is presently a 1oggi ng camp and thus many impacts have already occurred. Long-term impacts are associated with the alteration of topo- graphy and habitat. Clearing of right-of-way for transmission lines would stimu- late low-growth vegetation benefitting certain species. Aquatic Species and Water Qualitx Arctic grayling stocks in Tyee Lake may be impacted but stocks are already depressed. Submarine cables could affect the shrimp fishery. Possibility for a fish hatchery utilizing tailwaters of pro- ject could enhance salmon fisheries. Constructi on of transmi ss ion 1;nes coul d deteri orate water quality in rivers and streams used by salmon. Socioeconomic Categories Population Contractor would not encourage workers and families to resettle but would allow workers to fly home at intervals. Housing Housing for workers at site would be provided using an existing logging camp. Tax Base and Revenues Not addressed. 53 .... - Employment .Project will employ a maximum of 60 workers. Operation and maintenance will require one or two full time caretakers. Total gross earnings of all employees would be $16 million throughout construction period. Tunnel work would be on a continuous basis for nine months a year,six days a week. Operation and maintenance will require one or two full time . caretakers. Economy Project will have overall minimal impact on Petersburg and Wrangell. Significant income would accrue to two cities as a result of transmission line staging there. Opportunity to manage timber in right-of-way would be fore- gone,and on adjacent lands as well.Cost of harvesting timber near transmission lines may increase. Hydropower could "help stabilize operational costs of industrial power users and help them to remain competi- tive.It could also encourage industries that are depen- dent on reliable energy to make long-term investments in Petersburg and Wrangell." Local merchants will benefit from project workers spending part of their earnings there. Local suppliers of construction materials and transpor- tation services would benefit • Public Services Project will create minor traffic increases in Petersburg and Wrangell. Energy Power from project expected to come on-line in 1984. Would replace diesel-generated power for estimated 11 years when more power would be needed.Local residents would be 54 ,. - .... I COW1ENTS: relieved of noise and odor of diesel generators •. liThe major socioeconomic consideration would be the avail- ability of power at a stable,long-term,lower-price for electrical energy to all the consumers,individual,business, and industrial,of the service area." By the year 2000,10 MW of power could be added by construc- tion of a dam on Tyee Lake. Cultural Resources Not addressed. Recreation Transmission line corridor would open areas up for recre- ational pursuits,e.g.,snowmobiles,cross country skiing and hunting. Limited use of Tyee Lake does and would continue to occur due to remoteness of area • Some public use facilities mainly for boaters,would be con- structed at the powerhouse,e.g.a shelter,picnic tables, and sanitation facilities. Land would be reserved for expansion of recreational facili- ties as the need arose. Aesthetics Transmission lines and powerhouse facilities wouldimpaet aesthetic values of area. Project is small and isolated. Impacts are not quantified. 55 - ,' PROJECT:Solomon Gulch Project No.2742 -Alaska Federal Energy Regulatory Commission March 1978,Final EIS Applicant:Cooper Valley Electrical Association,Inc. Glenallen,Alaska 12 MW hydroelectric project. Will enlarge present dam and install turbine facilities. Located on Solomon Gulch Creek,4 miles south of city of Valdez. Project includes 104 miles of transmission lines to Glenallen and four miles of line to Valdez. Land Use and Features Project would encompass 820 acres of which 700 acres is state-owned and 120 acres administered by BLM. Transmission lines would require 1300 acres. Project would inundate 515 acres. Solomon Lake would increase by 100 acres to 615 acres. Existing dam (old hydro development never completed)encom- passes 180 acres. Aquatic Species and Water Quality Diversion of water from Solomon Gulch Creek would alter downstream riparian habitat. Salmon spawning areas at mouth of creek could be adversely impacted by sedimentation during construction. Overall impact on fisheries would be minor • . Wil dl ife 515 acres of wildlife habitat would be lost. Bald eagles,peregrine falcons,bears,and goats could be adversely impacted. 56 - .... ..... -- t .' •.Contact between bears and people could increase,resulting in . a bear population decrease. Undergrowth by transmission lines will be beneficial to wildlife. Socioeconomic Categories Population Impacts would be negligible. Housing Area has excess capacity as a result of Alaska pipeline construction. Construction camp consisting of mobile homes would be built for workers. Tax Base and Revenues Not specifically addressed. Employment 20 to 30 workers would be employed during construction. Economy Adverse impacts would be negligible • Stable,cheap supply of energy could enhance economic development potential. Public Services Not addressed. Energy Project would reduce dependence on an expensive and erratic diesel based power supply. Project would link existing electricity distribution networks in Glenallen and Valdez. Cultural Resources No known archeological or historical sites would be impacted. 57 - -- Recreation A hiking trail to the reservoir would be constructed along the access road. +Area would be used an estimated 250 to 500 visits per year. ..... - - Aesthetics Rerouting of creek through powerhouse and transmission lines would degrade natural scenery of area. COMMENTS: Size of project is very small,as are resulting impacts. Impacts are negligible compared with those associated with construction of Alaska pipeline. 58 - ..... ..... '""" ". PROJECT:North Fork Stanislaus River Project #2409 -California Federal Energy Regulatory Commission November,1979,Draft EIS Applicant:Calaveras County Water District 205.2 MW installed capacity. Project would consist of one main dam,two diversion dams, and 56 miles of transmission lines. Land Use and Features Project would encompass 3,508 acres. 1,900 acres would be inundated. Wildlife 2,500 acres of wildlife.habitat,including 200 acres of critical meadow habitat -important to deer,would be wiped out. Poaching would likely increase with development of area. Mitigative measures could include compensation for lost habi- tat through lIimprovement ll of other areas. Aquatic Species and Water Quality 12.5 miles of stream habitat would be destroyed. Trout stocks would be adversely affected both during con- struction and O&M phase periods due to temperature,flow,and gas saturation level changes. Construction would increase turbidity and sedimentation of river downstream. During O&M,sedimentation would increase downstream due to lack of flushing. 59 ..... - - ,, Socioeconomic Categories Population ~Impact depends on three parameters: (a)Percent of relocating workers who are married according to a 1975 Mountain West Research study of energy projects in the West,figure is 75 percent. (b)Percent of relocating workers who WJu1d bring families estimated to be between 50 percent and 78 percent. (c)Average number of children per family:estimated .75. In California,however,workers tend not to relocate with famili es,but return for visits at times.Therefore,it is assumed 40 percent of re 1ocat i ng workers wi 11 bri ng fami 1i es. Net population gain would be between 1,900 and 2,170 during construction phase • Hous i ng Project would create need for 510 units for families,plus dormitory-type accommodations for 770 persons. Since stay of most fami lies would be short-term,leasing might be preferable. Not much housing available within a 45-minute commute. If applicant provides worker housing,little overall per- manent impact will occur. Tax Base and Revenues $276,000 in revenue would accrue t6 county due to taxes applicable to construction equipment (one percent in Ca 1i for ni a)• Four.percent sales tax would increase revenues from construction related expenditures. Applicant agreed to pay $110,000 to sheriff's department and maintain three miles of county roads,thus offsetting impacts and costs. 60 .... ~, Employment Construction of project would anploy 810-1~500 workers over three-year period,for a total 21,160 man-months of on-s He 1abor. 150 workers,or 25 percent of the work force,from 2-county area could be employed by project. 220 workers expected to live in 2-county area (150)or corrmute from outside 2-county area PO);the remaining 1,280 would relocate to area. (2)Employment at retail,service,and financial institu- tions in area would increase. Unemployment would decrease due to project. Economy Total of $59,500,000 in wages would be paid over 3-year period. A portion of total wages paid would become income for area businesses and workers (i.e.,wages and salaries~proprie- tors'income,rent,interest~and profit).Estimated at $9,000,000 via following process: $59,500,000 Total wages -19,500,000 For taxes,insurance premiums,and automatic savings -10,000,000 For mortgage payments,education,and other fi xed payments $30,000,000 In discretionary income Half of discretionary income can be assumed to go for vacations elsewhere or sent to families living elsewhere. Thus: $30,000,000 -15,000,000 $15,000,000 would be spent locally,of which 40%, or -6,000,000 would go to wholesalers~distributors, and manufacturers outside of 2-county area; 61 I thus $9,000,000 net income increase. Multiplier effects from income increase are'estimated at 15 percent of total,or $1,350,000.(Secondary impact.) Public Services New sewer and water faci 1it i es may be necessary to accom- modate population increase. Project may necessitate expansion of schools to accom- modate increase in school population {510 families relo- cated with 380 children,of which 280 are school age; public school system would need to accommodate maximum 225 at one time (80 percent);costs would be offset by increased state funding. Sheriff estimates two more policemen and two cars would be required. Road maintenance would increase due to increased traffic. I"'" I - COMMENTS: Cultural Resources Seven archaeological sites would be inundated. Recreation Project would inundate some areas currently used by an esti- mated 4,000 persons per year. 60 'campsites,boat launch facilities,primitive campsite areas,and group sites would be developed as part of project. Project may beneficially impact 17 mile white water river run by flow stabilization (run is one of the most heavily used in the United States). Aesthetics Scenic quality of numerous areas would be affected. Agreement was made with DFG to protect,preserve,and enhance fisheries and wildlife. 62 r PROJECT:Bad Creek Pumped Storage Project No.2740 Federal Power Commission March,1977,Final EIS Applicant:Duke Power Located in Oconee County,South Carolina. 1,000 MW Pumped Storage Complex. Near existing pumped storage. Tie-in with Oconee Nuclear Power Station. Land Use and Features 505 acres of vegetation supporting timber,wi 1d1ife,agri- cultural activities,and recreation would be permanently lost. 370 of 505 acres would be inundated. 820 acres impacted during construction. Transmission lines would affect an additional 315 acres. No commercially valuable mineral deposits in area. Some commercially valuable timber would be lost. Wil d1 ife Loss of habitat would affect game and non-game species of wild1 i fe. Aquatic Species and Water Quality Project would lower stream productivity. 2.3 miles of cold water stream fishery and riparian wildlife habitat would be inundated . .... ••Trout would be adversely impacted;project would eliminate approximately one percent of state's trout habitat. Construction phase would increase turbidity and sedimentation of downstream areas. 63 - - - .... J ' Socioeconomic Categories Population 10 percent of work force expected to relocate,or 100 new fami li es. Housing Not expected to be significant because 75 percent of work force is expected to be hired locally. Tax Base and Revenues Signifi cant and substantial positive impact --$950,000 during years one through three and $1,350,000 per year during subsequent years;equivalent to 25 percent of existing tax revenues on real estate and personal property. Employment Eight to nine year construction period employing maximum of 500 during fourth year. 75 percent hired locally. Assumi ng 95 percent of work force is in impact area, $6 million in gross wages would be paid. Multiplier effects from project would create secondary and tertiary jobs. O&M period would employ 12 persons full-time. Economy Not discussed. Public Services Littl e impact. Minor impact on schools. Community Attitudes Not addressed • 64 - f J Energy Project would create savings in cost to applicant.Project would be used to maintain nuclear and fossil fuel at or near full capacity at which those plants are more efficient. Cultural Resources Not discussed. Recreation 30-mile hiking trail would be constructed as part of project. ••• Project area itself~however~would be closed to public. Project would displace 68 hours of angling~or 30-40 fishing trips @.$6.30/day ,=$189 to $252 annual loss.(Most recent estimates value day trips at $13.90 -$160.36;average $32.30 per day.) Some loss to dispersed recreation activities which occur pre- sently (1 ~500 vi sitars/year currently for hi ki ng,pr imit i ve c~~ping,and nature study). - Aesthetics Substantial~but not visible (draw down mud strip). Isolated nature of project reduces aesthetic impacts. CCMMENTS: Different type of project than Susitna (pumped storage versus conventional hydroelectric dam). 65 r .... .- DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT +L,R +L ?L ?L,R +L,R o L +L ?R o L,R EXHIBIT III-3a IMPACTS OF REPRESENTATIVE POWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS:- POTENTIAL RELEVANCE FOR THE PROPOSED SUSITNA PROJECT TYPE OF IMPACT Land Use and Features Total acreage required by project facilities and right-of-ways. Total acreage of land indirectly impacted by project facili- ties and right-of-way •. Short-term impacts may be less substantial than the long-term impacts. Patterns of ownership and induced changes. Changes in uses of land • Value of land and natural resources above and below ground lost/gained • Changes in potential uses of land (wilderness or roadless areas,National Scenic River,etc.) Potential for seismic activity. Overall "productivity"of land could increase. Increased accessibility will affect land and resource values. Opportunities for flood protection. Wildl ife Rare or endangered species impacted (e.g.bald eagles, geese)• Degree of impact:+is relatively large; o is relatively small. ?is uncertain. Geographic area of impact:L is the Upper Susitna area (local) R is the railbelt and the state (i.e.,outside the upper Susitna area). 66 - ,.... , - ""'", DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT o L +L o L ?L o L o L ?L,R o L ?L ?R o L EXHIBIT III-3a (cont.) TYPE OF IMPACT Pressures on wildlife created by project,short-term during construction and long-term created by alteration of topo- graphy and habitat (acres lost or altered). Secondary impacts on wildlife created by increased accessi- bility and use of area by recreationa1ists and trappers/ hunters. Species of wildlife affected and percent change in population. Poaching/abuse of wildlife may increase due to increased ac- cessib"ility. Clearing of right-of-way could benefit certain species by stimulating low-growth vegetation. Aquatic Species and Water Quality Changes in river behavior could impact riparian ecosystem •. Construction of dam and clearing of right-of-ways will have a short-term and probably minor impact depending on timing. Permanent alteration and regulation of river flows could have a beneficial/harmful impact on downstream fisheries;in particular,salmon. Fisheries above impoundments would be impacted;percent of area I s resource. Spawning areas of fisheries are most sensitive area impacted. Project operation could alter freezing temperatures of water downstream. ~cioeconomic Categories 1.Population Temporary versus permanent impacts. Number of workers,families,and other inhabitants expected to relocate. 67 - ..., DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHI C AREA OF IMPACT +R ?R +R o L ?L o R ?L ?L EXHIBIT III-3a (cont.) TYPE OF IMPACT Population may grow with Dr without project,and coupled with other projects (e.g.the gas pipeline.) Project may induce secondary population growth. 2.Housing Impacts to region may depend on percentage of workers re- cruited from outside region. Availability,or tightness of housing market determines scale of impact. Demand for housing many be determined independently of pro- ject and in part by other major construction projects. Most workers will be housed in temporary construction camps; commuting is unlikely. Rents and market values in the closer residential areas may rise. 3.Tax Base and Revenues Taxes on construction property may accrue to certain govern- men t en tit i es • Depending on workers'spending habits,various communities may experience an increase in revenues from sales tax. Appreciated land values may lead to an increase in tax base. Participants and/or governments may agree to offset certain costs incurred by various governments. Revenues will accrue to the Federal and state governments via income taxes on construction and operating personnel income. Revenues may increase over time due to appreciation of land values relating to increased opportunities for development (secondary impact). Changes in land use will alter value of tax bas~. 4.Employment Number of employees required during operation and mainte- nance. 68 r ..... - ..... DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT +L + R o L o L o R +R +L,0 R ?L,R +L,0 R ?L,R o L ?L ?L 7·L EXHIBIT III-3a (cont.) TYPE OF IMPACT Income fi gures for workers Jtota 1 annual,average per worker, timing,etc.) Secondary employment may occur in economic infrastructure due to multiplier effects. Number of construction workers and timing of work force loading. Percentage of work force hired locally. Seasonal variations in employment. Number of workers employed by transmission line construction. Effect on other industries and sectors of economy created by project's demand for labor. Impacts of laws related to number of state residents required to be employed. Breakdown of work force by trade and function. 5.Economy .Increased accessibility to area could encourage development associated with recreational opportunities. Multiplier effect on local and regional economy. Incentives for industrial development created by stable energy availability. Impacts on local communities from increased economic activity associated with project. Percentage of work force income spent locally or in region. Impact on personal income of area residents. Various sectors of the economy would benefit. 6.Pub li c Services Demand for educational services. Demand for police and fire protection services • 69 .... ""'"DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT ?L,R ?L ?L a L ?L,R +L,R +R +R +L,R EXHIBIT III-3a (cant.) TYPE OF IMPACT Effects on existing services and transportation facilities~ Demand for sewer and water facilities. How costs for public services will be incurred and funded. Demand for judicial and health services. Need for planning at various levels. Energy Hydropower is a relatively pollution-free,renewable resource.Its use prevents impacts of alternatives. Project could reduce and/or replace dependence on fossil-fuel based power. Project may add over 1000 MW of generating capacity to region. Large shortages of electrical energy could have a serious eco- nomic and social impact. Could provide a stable,long-term,lower-price supply of e 1eetr i city. .... - ..... - +L,o R +L +L,o R +L,o R £ommunity Attitudes Tensions could exist between residents and immigrants project may attract. Lack of recreation,social isolation,and close quarters may place stress on workers. Present social structure would be altered permanently. A new or modifi ed set of values and standards may arise. Cultural Resources Value of archeological and/or historical sites lost or made accessible • 70 .- .- DEGREE AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF IMPACT EXHIBIT III~3a (cont.) TYPE OF IMPACT Recreation Project may increase accessibility of area for recreational pursuits. -?L,R ?L,R ?L ~ +L Project area availability for public use. Value of recreation opportunities gained/lost (e.g.,hiking, hunting,fishing,kayaking). Transmission line corridor may increase accessibility of areas for recreational pursuits. Aesthetics Natural scenic area would be substantially impacted. ..... -- o l,R o L Transmission lines will impact visual quality of numerous areas . Impacts may be "neg ligible lJ due to remoteness of project area. 71 """ - - ..... }. b.A set of Economic Data Collection Matrix sheets which correspond to the numbered bibliography and the descriptive characteristics obtained from the Alaska Socioeconomic Data Collection·Guides (as shown in Exhibit 11-4 above.) These end-products are shown in Exhibits 111-4 and 111-5. It should be noted that the Bibliography and Data Collection Matrix sheets are a First Edition of what will be a continuing data search and organization process through all Work Packages. Thus~in many instances where there are blank cells in a matrix~it is not necessarily the case that no data exist in this category.Also~ additional data in categories where data was identified may be uncovered at a later date.Particularly in areas where FO&A will interact with other Task teams~there will be significant information transmitted in the future.Land use and recreation are two examples of the type of data to be shared among Task teams. As i de from use of the Follow-up Notebook (as described in 11. Methodology~above)to update information,and interaction with other Task teams,additional data sources have been identified.These include: a.Alaska Department of Commmerce and Economic Development: Local and State government debt and expenditures Manufacturing capital expenditures Housing permits by size of structure State tax revenues b.Alaska Department of Education: Enrollment by district Number of schools~number of professional staff~expendi- tures and cost per pupil by district c.Alaska Department of Fish &Game: Various inventories,surveys,and data· d.Alaska Department of Natural Resources: Various mineral resource inventories Timber inventories Mining claims e.Alaska Department of Revenue: List of Alaska businesses B.WORK PACKAGE 4:FORECAST OF SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE ABSENCE Of THE SUSITNA PROJECT Description ..... As discussed in II.Methodology,Work Item socioeconomic forecasting studies and m::ldels.The work item is a bibliography of studies and models. presented in Exhibit 111-6. 72 a.was a search for end product of this This bibliography is EXHIBIT 111-4 ALASKA SOCIOECONOMIC DATA BIBLIOGRAPHY FIRST EDITION,JUNE 1980 1.The Agricultural Experiment Station,School of Agriculture and Land Resources Management and the Institute of Social and Economic Research,University of Alaska.1978.Yukon-Porcupine Regional Planning Study.Fairbanks,AK.n.p. 2.Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,Division"of Economic Enterprise.June 1979.An Assessment of the Domestic Market for Alaska Wood Products.Juneau,AK.32 pp. 3.Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,Division of Economic Enterprise.February 1980.Community Project Matrix. Juneau,AK. 4.Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,Division of Economic Enterprise.Various quarterly issues.Information & Reporting System.Juneau,AK. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,Division of Economic Enterprise.1979.Numbers.Juneau,AK.127pp . Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,Division of Economi c Enterprise.The Performance Report of the Alaska Economy in 1979.Juneau,AK.Volume Eight.32 pp. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,Division of Economic Enterprise.June 1979.What You Never Thought to Ask About Mining.Juneau,AK.28 pp. 5. .- I 6.I - 7. 8.Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,Division of Economic Enterprise and U.S.Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service.April 1977.Alaska Farm Cost of Production Survey.Juneau,AK.22 pp. 9.Alaska Department of Labor.Various monthly issues.Alaska Economic Trends.Juneau,AK. - 10.Alaska Department of Labor.1980.Annual Planning Information,FY 1981.Juneau,AK.80 pp. 11.Alaska Department of Labor.Vartous monthly issues.Labor Force Highlights.Juneau,AK • . 12.Alaska Department of Labor.Labor Market Information Directory. Juneau,AK.23 pp. 13.Alaska Department of Labor. Forecast.Juneau,AK. August 1979. 17 pp. Occupational Employment 73 14. -15. 16. ~ - ~ I EXHIBIT 111-4 (cont.) Alaska Department of Labor.June 1978.Occupational Employment Statistics--Manufacturing Industries 1977.Juneau,AK •.28 pp. Alaska Department of Labor.September 1979.Occupational Employment Statistics--Nonmanufacturing Industries 1978.Juneau,AK.68 pp. Alaska Department of Labor.August 1979.Wage Rates for Selected Occupations Anchorage,Fairbanks and Regional Areas.Juneau,AK. 27 pp. 17.Alaska Department of Natural Resources,Division of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Agriculture.June 1979.Alaska Agriculture Statistics.Palmer,AK. 18.Alaska Department of Revenue,Petroleum Revenue Division.March 1978. Peb-oleum Production Revenue Forecast.Juneau,AK.48 pp. 19.Alaska Office of the Governor,Division of Policy Development and Planning.1978.Alaska Data Inventory Catalog.Juneau,AK. 137 pp. 20.Alaska Pacific Bank.Alaska Business Trends,1979 Economic Forecast. Anchorage,AK.39 pp. 21.Anchorage Economic Development Commission.September 1976.Anchorage Economic Report.Anchorage,AK.15 pp. 22.Fairbanks North Star Borough.December 1979.1979 Annual Report. Fairbanks,AK.24 pp. 23.Fairbanks North Star Borough,Community Information Center.Various issues.Community Information Quarterly.Fairbanks,AK. 24.Fairbanks North Star Borough,Community Information Center.April 1980. The Energy Report.Fairbanks,AK.Vol.1,No.1.22 pp. 25.Fison,Sue,Don Moore and Cindy Quisenberry.1977.Energy Costs, Consumption and Impacts in Fairbanks.Fairbanks North Star Borough, Fairbanks,AK.Impact Information Center -Special Report No.5. 69 pp. 26.Fison,Sue and Cindy Quisenberry.1977.Impact Information Center Final Report.Fairbanks North Star Borough,Fairbanks,AK. Chapters 3,7,8,10,12,and 13. 27.Forre?t,Marilynn.July 1979.Fairbanks Cost of Living Update. Fairbanks North Star Borough,Community Information Center, Fairbanks,AK.Special Report No.5.42 pp. 28.Forrest,Marilynn.July 1979.North Pole Refinery Energy Impact Study. Fairbanks North Star Borough,Community Information Center, Fairbanks,AK.Special Report-No.6.45 pp. 74 - ..... - EXHIBIT 111-4 (cont.) 29.Logsdon,Charles,et al.(undated)Copper River-Wrangell Socioeconomic Overview.The-rnstitute for Social and Economic Research and the Agricultural Experiment Station,University of Alaska,fairbanks, AK.n.p. 30.Logsdon,Charles,Kenneth L.Casavant,and Wayne C.Thomas.1977. Input-Output Tables for Alaska's Economy:A First Look. Agricultural Experiment Station,University of Alaska,Fairbanks, AK.Bulletin 48.15 pp. 31.Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department.April 1978.Phase I: Comprehensive Development Plan.Palmer,AK.245 pp. 32.Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department.May 1978.Phase II: Comprehensive Development Plan.Palmer,AK.44 pp. 33.Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department.January 1979.Phase III:Comprehensive Development Plan.Palmer,AK.Preliminary Draft. 34.Matz,George,Ben Harding and Russell Wertz.July 1979.1978 Fairbanks Energy Inventory.Fairbanks North Star Borough,Comnunity Information Center,Fairbanks,AK.Special Report No.4 88 pp. 35.Municipality of Anchorage Planning Department.1978.Population Profile.Anchorage,AK.32 pp. 36.Municipality of Anchorage Planning Department.(undated)Quarterly Economic Indicators.Anchorage,AK.Vol.1,No.1.11 pp. 37.Policy Analysts,Limited,Dr.Richard L.Ender.May 1980.Mat-Su Housing and [conomi c Dev e1opment Study:Survey Fi ndi ngs •. 38.Rogers,George W.and Jack Kreinheder.1980.Socioeconomic Analysis for Fishery Areas and Census Division.Limited Entry Study Committee.241 pp.(Prepared for Alaska Legislative Affairs Agency.) 39.United States Department of Energy,Alaska Power Administration. January 1979.Power Market Analysis.Draft.125 pp. 75 1 1 1 --J 1 I I )1 i EXHIBIT II 1-5 ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (N'umbers'in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA :socIa AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION "-.J O'l FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE.MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.1 R.S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.D.M. ", Attitudes Toward Growth 37 32,33 3 "Atti tudes Toward Li festyl e and Qua 1ity of Life 37 32,33 3 I,---- , I , I Other I I '. I , I l R.U.=regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study.One time report with data within 1978-1980 period 30.M.=dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. -J 1 J J ]J )I 'I J I 1 EXHIBIT 111-5 (cont.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:F &W AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION -.../ """-l FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE.MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.l R;S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.D.M. \ \ I Fish Resource Use Patterns \ I I I I .. I IWildlifeResourceUsePatterns I I \ Other I I dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. 1R.U.= 3D•M.= regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study ..One time report with data within 1978-1980 period I 'C~.~-~'J ]J J ]-I I )J I --1 1 ) EXHIBIT 111-5 (cont.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:ED AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION -...J 00 FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.1 R;S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.D.M. Education Enrollments 21 I 31 . Education Facilities I I 31 ",. Education Costs/Revenues I Projected Education 3 , I Other 35,a I II l R.U.=regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study ..One time report with data within 1978-1980 period 3D.M•=dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. II =0.1111"'::1+;nn 10\101 '-I i I ]J )-11 ]I J EXHIBIr 111-5 (cant.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:UTtL AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION -...J 1.0 FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.1 R.S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.D.M. I Util i ty Rates 23,24 27,34 25,26,39 I 31,39 I 39 1 39 . I I I Uti 1ity Usage 23,24 34 125,26,36 39 31 ,39 39 39 I I Projected Utility Usage 39 39 \39 3 39 Other.23 a I 1 I I lR.U.=regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study ..One time report with da~a withinl978-l980 period 3D.M.=dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. a =generating capacity. I J C']J C."1 j ....))J ')1 1 EXHIBIT 111-5 (cant.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA :INF~A AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION 00o FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE'MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.l R.S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.D.M. I I Public Facilities 31 ,33.'I Projected Public Facilities I I \ I 3 I Transportation Facilities 23 \ 31,33 . I Projected Transportation \ \ Faci1 iti es I ' 3 Other I ,., l R.U.=regular updates of data 'issued.2R.S.=recent study.One time report with data within -1978-1980 period 3D.M.=dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. -1 I }J J j ]J J EXHIBIT 111-5 (cont.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:TAX AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION co..... ,STATEWIDEFAIRBANKSIANCHORAGEMATANUSKA-SUS1TNA R.U.1 R;S.2 3 R.U.T R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.O.M.D.M.R.S ..D.M. '.,. Tax Rates 27 I Tax Revenues 23 Projected Tax Revenues I I I I I Other 123 a I \ ". 'R.U.=regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study ..One time report with da~a withinl978-1980 period .30.M•~dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. I Cl ····1 1 j 1 i EXHIBIT 111-5 (cont.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:BS·AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION 00 N ,FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.1 R.S.2 3 R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.D.M.II R.U. 17 d 2a \2a 17 d 2a ,31 I 7cIndustryStudiesII3,~,2a ,20 I 17 I I Business Level and Income 23 II 21 I 4,6 20 I Projected Business Trends I I I 3 20 I I I I I 23 f 27 9 26 g 36 h 21 e I bBusinessActivityVariablesI4b, 11 6 II Other I I , I dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. lR.U.= 3 0 •M•= regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study.One time report with data within1978-1980 period a =1977.Railbelt Wood Demand. b =banking,interest rates,Anchorage CPl. c =mining. d =agriculture. e =CPI,building permits,port & airport activity. f =banking,CPl. g =CPl. h =CPI,transportation ac- tivitv.bankinq,con- I 1 1 J 1 J I J J J ]j I J ~I 1 I EXHIBIT 111-5 (cant.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:EMPLOY AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION cow FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE "R.U .1 R.S.2 3D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M. Employment/Unemployment Levels 5,9,10,26 5,9 21 ,5,9 37 31 4,5,15 14 23 10, I 35 10 9,10, ,36 11 . 5,9,10,26 5,9 21,35 5,9,37 4,5,15 14 Type af Employment 23 10,i 10 6,9, I '36 I 10 5,9,10,16 5,9,16 35 5,9,37 4,5,16 I Income Levels (personal)23 10 10 6,9, I 10 I Projected Employment/Income 9,10 19,10 9,10 1 4 ,9,15 14 !10,13 Other 31 b 13 a I I l I i l 1R•U•=regular updates of data i~~ued.2R•S•=recent study ..One time report with data within 1978-1980 period ,3D.M•=dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. a =job openings. 1 1 -1 I J J }1 i J EXHIBIT 111-5 (cant.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:HOUSE AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION D::J +:0 FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE I MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.l R.S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.D.M. I \ Housing Stocks 23 34 \ 21 ,,37 . 3S I \ I 1 1 \ \1 3 ,6 aProjectedHousingStock \ I I I I \ I .\Rent/Price Levels 35 37 = Other 23 c \ \36 d 21 b 37 e , \\\Ii 1R.U•=regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study.One time report with data within -1978-'1980'period 3 0.M.=dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. a =building permits. b =rental vacancies and homes for sale. c =building permits,mortgage values. d =construction;vacancy rates. --._.-I.!......!._ __.{:L-._t I".;n n "1 I I J J J J 1 )1 ! EXHIBIT 111-5 (cant.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:LAND AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION co 1Jl FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.l R.S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.ID.M. I 'I Land-Use Patterns I \ 31 ,33 II I \\ Land-Use Projections I I 3, I I I I Other I \ \\ dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. lR.U.= ,3 0 •M•= regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study.One time report with data within -1978-1980 period ~..'1 "'=CC""]t 1 J ]C~]1 I J 1 c_.~ EXHIBIT 111-5 (cant.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA:POP'AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION co 0"\ FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U .1 R.S.2 3 i R.U.R.S.D.M.O.M.R.U.R.S.O.M.R.U.i R.S.O.M. Population 5,10,23 26,39 5,10 B5,39 5,10 37 31,33,4,5,39 I 39 10 I I I 1 10ProjectedPopulation10 10 33 4,10 I , Other Population 3S a I \ I \,' l l ", lR.U.=regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study.One time report with data within 1978-1980 period ,~D.M.=dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. ~=:lnl3 +rrlrp. ~'C1 ::C:--'j :t 1 J J ")---~J I J -)1 ----J ~--l .~ EXHIBIT III-5 (cant.) ACRE WORKPACKAGE 1 ECONOMIC DATA COLLECTION MATRIX (Numbers in cells refer to attached bibliography) First Edition 6/17/80 TYPE OF DATA :REC AREA AND CURRENCY OF INFORMATION co ""-J FAIRBANKS ANCHORAGE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA STATEWIDE R.U.l R.S.2 3 R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.R.S.D.M.R.U.\R.S.D.M.D.M. \, IRecreationalActivity \I 31, \ Projected Recreational Activity I I I 31 3I , I Other I I I I I l I I dated material.Data for period 1977 and prior. 1R•U•= 3D.M.= regular updates of data issued.2R.S.=recent study.One time report with data within 1978-1980 period r- i I [ i I r t EXHI BIT II 1-6 FORECASTING STUDIES AND MODELS BIBLIOGRAPHY State of Alaska,Department of Commerce and Economic Development.Undated. State of Al?ska Quarterly Econometric Model.Juneau,AK. Andrews,Wade H.et al.,ed.1973.The Social Well-Being and Quality of Life Dimension in water Resources Planning and Development.Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources,Utah State University, Logan,Utah.Proceedings of the Conference of the University Council on Water Resources,July 10-12,1973.213 PP. Anderson.1970.A Note on Economic Base Studies and Regional Econometric Forecasting Models.Journal of Regional Science.Vol.10,No.3.pp. 325-333. Arizona Office of Economic Planning and Development.July 1977.Description and Technical Description of the Economic/Demographic Projection Model. Baker,Janet K.,norbert Dee,and James R.Finley.1974.Measuring Impacts of Water Resource Developments on the Human Environment.American Water Resources Association,Water Resources Bulletin.Vol.10,No.1.pp. 10-21 • Biswas,Asit K.and Robert W.Durie.Sociological Aspects of Water Develop- ment.Development.Water Resources Bulletin,1971. Chalmers,J.A.1977.Bureau of Reclamation Construction Worker Survey. Engineering and Research Center,U.S.Bureau of Reclamation,Denver,CO. Chalmers,J.A.and Anderson,E.J.1977.Economic/D.emographic Assessment Manual:Current Practices,Procedural Recommendations,and a Test Case. Engineering and Research Center,U.S.Bureau of Reclamation,Denver,CO. Clonts,Howard A.and Lonnie P.Cain.1976.Implications of Watershed Development on Land Value and Landowner Attitudes.Agricultural Experiment Station/Auburn University,Auburn,AL.Bulletin 479.41 pp. Construction Engineering Research Laboratory.June,1976.The Economic Impact Forecast System:Description and User Instructions.Technical Report N-2. Finsterbusch,K.and Wolf,C.P.1977.The Methodology of Social Impact Assessment.Dowden,Hutchinson and Ross Publishing Co.,Stroudsberg,PA. Finsterbusch,K.1977.Methods of Evaluating Non-Market Impacts in Policy Decisions with Special Reference toWa-ter Resources Development Projects.· U.S.Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources,Fort Belvoir,VA.IWR Contra~t Report 77-78.46 pp. Glickman,Norman J.February,1977.Impact Analysis with Regional Econometic Models (Draft).University of Pennsylvania. Goldsmith,Scott and Lee Huskey.1980.Electric Power Consumption for the Railbe1t:A Projection of Requirements,Technical Appendices.Institute 88 ;, EXHIBIT 111-6 (cont.) of Social and Economic Research for the State of Alaska House Power Alternati ves Study Conmittee and Alaska Power Authority,Anchorage. Guseman,P.1<.and Dietrich,K.T.1978.Profile and Measurement -of Social Well-Being Indicators for Use in the Evaluation of Water and Related land Management Planning.U.S.Army Engineers Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg,MS.Misc.Paper Y-78-2.112 pp. Leistritz,F.L.,D.M.Senechal,and lorent low.1980.Socioeconomic Effects of Energy Development:The Role of Impact Models in Policy Making.Paper presented at National Energy Policy Conference,University of West Virginia,Morganstown,May 1,1980. Lerner,Sally C.1980.Energy Policy:A Potential Source of Positive Social Impacts.Paper presented at National Energy Policy Conference, University of West Virginia,Morganstown,May 1,1980. Laboratory of Architecture and Planning,MIT.November,1976.Predicting the Local Impacts of Energy Development:A Critical Guide to Forecasting Methods and Models (Draft).Cambridge,MA. Malone,D.W.1975.An Introduction to the Application of Interpretive Structural Modeling in Baldwin,M.M.(ed.)Portraits of Complexity: Applications of Systems Methodologies to Societal Problems.Battelle Memorial Institute,Columbus,OH.- Mitchell,A.et al.1975.Handbook of Forecasting Techniques.U.S.Army Engineer TnstTtute for Water Resources,Fort Belvoir,VA.IWR Contract Report 75-7.316 pp. Mountain West Research,Inc.December,1975. Projections for Rosebud County,Montana. Demographic and Economic Tempe,Arizona. Mountain West Research,Inc.1976.Mid-Yellowstone Areawide Planning Organization:Economic Demographic Projection Model.Billings,Montana. Muller,T.1976.Economic Impacts of Land.Development:Employment,Housing and Property Values.The Urban Institute,Washington,D.C.URI 15800. 148 pp. Muller,T.1975.Fiscal Impacts on Land Development.The Urban Institute, Washington,D.C.URI 98000.68 pp. Murdock,Steve H.and F.Larry Leistritz.1979.Oemographic and Economic Effects of Large-Scale Energy Development in Rural Areas:An Assessment Model -in Gene F.Summers and Arne Selvik (eds.),Nonmetropolitan I ndustrT al Growth and Conrnunity Change.Lexi ngton,Lexi ngton,MA.pp. 223-53. Priscoli,Jerry D. P1ann;n9:Some Water Resources pp.953-958. 1977.Integrating Social Analysis into Water Resources Emerging Trends in the Corps of Engineers.American Association,Water Resources Bulletin.Vol.13,No.5. 89 ------------_~_--_._-_~_._------ - - '"'"'1 -, """,I i ! ;.EXHIBIT 111-6 (cont.) Reaume,David M.1980.Migration and the Dynamic Stability of Regional Econometric Models.State of Alaska,Department of Commerce,and Economic Development,Juneau,AK. Schaffer,William A.April,1977 (mimeo).The Role of Input-Output Analysis Models in Regional Impact Analysis. Shaw,L.Gardner,S.Cohen and T.G.Ingersoll.1980.Community Involvement in the Assessment of the Socioeconomic Effects of Energy Development. Paper presented at National Energy Policy Conference,University of West Virginia,Morganstown,May 1,1980. Singh,Raghu N.and Kenneth P.Wilkinson.1974.On the Measurement of Environmental Impacts of Public Projects from a Sociological Perspective. American Water Resources Association,Water Resources Bulletin.Vol.10, No.3.pp.415-425. Smith,Charles R.et al.1973.Social and Cultural Impact of a Proposed Reservoir on a~ural Kentucky School District.Kentucky Water Resources Institute,Lexington,KY.189 pp. Smith,Charles R.1970.Aniticipation of Change:A Socio-economic Description of a Kentucky County before Reservoir Construction.Kentucky Water Resources Institute,Lexington,KY.166 pp. Sonnen,Michael B.and Larry C.Davis.1979.Wild Rivers Methods for Evaluation.American Water Resources Association,Water Resources Bulletin,Vo.15,No.2.pp.404-419. Stinson,D.S.and OIHare,M.1977.Predicting the Local Impacts of Energy Development:A Critical Guide to Forecasting Methods and Models. Laboratory of Architecture and Planning,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge,MA.98 pp. University of Alberta,Faculty of Extension.1980.Computer Models for Forecasting Socioeconomic Impacts of Growth and Development.Edmonton, Alberta.Proceedings of conference,April 20-23,1980. Wakeland,W.1976.QSIM2:A Low-Budget Heuristic Approach to Modeling and Forecasting.Technological Forecasting and Social Change.Vol.9.pp. 213-229. White,William T.,B.Malamund and J.Nixon.May,1976.A Model for the Socioecono~ic Analysis of Water Projects. 90 r j r .- I [ r I - .- ! - ..... 1 IV.RESULTS 'AND DISCUSSION OF BASELINE STUDY The baseline study,Work Package 2 (Socioeconomic Profile Development), is to be conducted during July through November,1980 • 91 r i .- I .- [ .... - .... - e , v.IMPACT ASSESSMENT The impact assessment~Work Package 3 (Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Studies)~is to be conducted during October through December~1981 . 92 r .... ..... ~ I r I VI.MITIGATION Mitigation,included in Work Package 3 (Preliminary Socioeconomic Impact Studies),is to be conducted during October through November,1981 • 93 ""'" I ,~ """I r i'Ii \L r l VII.SUMMARY At this stage of the socioeconomic analysis it is not possible to pro- vide any conclusions.However,several major points that were made above and a few corrrnents would be appropriate.These points and corrments are presented below by work package. A.WORK PACKAGE l:LITERATURE REVIEW With respect to the review of representative power development studies,it was quite evident that there was substanti a1 diversity in the quality,scope,and methods employed.In general,the depth of analysis,scope,degree of substantiation and quantification, appropri ateness of methodo logy,and overall qual ity were greater when the project was large and/or the soci oeconomi c impacts were extens ive and controversial.Of the many studies perused and the eleven reviewed in depth,the Dickey-L incoln School Lakes study,the Boardman coal facility study,and the Washington Public Power Supply Systemts st~dies (as reviewed so far)were the most desirable in terms of the above attributes.Many of the impacts of these projects were determined to be potentially relevant for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project.In addition,some aspects of the methodologies used in the socioeconomic studies for these projects will be relevant for Work Package 4. In read i ng many of the summary impact documents,it was apparent that either the underlying socioeconomic analysis was weak or that the summary document itself was poorly written.Many of the documents,for example,used conditional or indeterminate phraseology.To say,with no substantiating information,that something could have a beneficial impact is to make an insignificant statement.Unfortunately,many of the socioeconomic summaries contained this type of material. Finally,some of the studies reviewed and perused stressed the importance of analyzing impacts from a broad as well as narrow perspective.A broad perspective could be particularly relevant for Alaska because the proposed Sus itna Proj ect mi ght have a si gnifi cant influence on the railbelt and/or state economy.Additionally,other proposed AI askan projects,if I arge and contemporaneous with the pro- posed Susitna Project,would have to be integrated into the socioecono- mic impact analysis for Susitna,e.g.the proposed gas pipeline. Impact analysis in Alaska,perhaps more than elsewhere,must be both .broad and narrow.The approach taken in conducting Work Package 1 (and the first part of Work Package 4)recognizes this procedure. .With regard to the identification and categorization of social and economic data,it appeared that the overall quality,availability,and currency of these data are uneven.By and large,data onemp I oyment, population,housing,education,revenues,and uti lities are recent and continually updated.Varying degrees of data also exist for other categories such as attitudes toward growth and recreational usage.On the other hand,three prominent examples of data that are of relatively poor quality,availability and/or currency are (1)land use,(2) industrial use (especially industry studies and business activity levels and income),and (3)fiSh and wildlife use patterns (e.g.,fish 94 and wildlife population be stressed·that these At present the ultimate ..... -- -- ....., population and catch levels by stream/river, and harvest by geographic area).It should II ratings ll of data are broad and preliminary. extent of these shortcomings are unknown. In Work Package 1,Work Item c.,it was stressed that data iden- tification and categorization is an on-going process.The functions of this process are to identify sources of data,form of data,ease of data access,data time frame,frequency of data reporting,geographic area covered,and data "gaps lt.The apparent data "gaps ll noted above are currently bei ng investigated and the extent of the shortcomi ngs will soon be determined. B.WORK PACKAGE 4:FORECAST OF SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SUSITNA PROJECT The first work item of this work package was to identify and collect socioeconomic studies and models.This was done by accessing forecasting studies and models in Frank Orth &Associates,Inc.ls library and by searching for other forecasting studies and models in coordination with the Work Package 1 work effort.This search began in Alaska and then extended throughout the IILower 48 11 •Social scientists at the University of Alaska,Institute for Social and Economic Research,and the Alaska Department of Corrrnerce and Economi c Development were interviewed and several prominant social scientists in the Lower-48 were contacted.The result of these interviews and search was the compilation of a rather comprehensive bibliography of fore- casting studies and models.These studies and models will be reviewed and evaluated during the next few work items of.Work Package 4.The objective is to determine which forecasting methodology would be most appropriate for the socioeconomic analysis via this broad survey pro- cess. 95 .... I - r r!, [I VIII.REFERENCES The references for this report are provided in Exhibits 111-1,111-4, and 111-6.These references will be updated as the socioeconomic analysis continues.The only reference cited in this report was:Information Resources Press.1977-1980.EIS -Direst of Environmental Impact State- ments.Arlington,VA 22209.VOl.1-#through Vol.4-#3. 96 r I IX.AUTHORITIES CONTACTED ~ I,, ..... While conducting Work Package 1 and the beginning of Work.Package 4, several persons from local,state,and federal agencies and private institu- tions were contacted.These persons are listed below by Work Package and city in which the contact was made.Persons contacted as part of project management are also listed . A.WORK PACKAGE 1 Several persons were contacted as part of Work Package 1, Literature Review.The purpose of the contacts was to obtain infor- mation to: 1.Identify sources of socioeconomic studies,data,and informa- tion; 2.Establish cOrMlunication channels with data source personnel and key informants; 3.Identify forecasting models;interview model developer and/or users;and 4.Identify current and projected activities which could influence socioeconomic variables. - Data collection guides as described in II,Methodology,above,were uti- lized during the interviews. Fairbanks,Alaska 1.Philip Berrian,Fairbanks Borough Planning Director. Karen Fox,Research Analyst,Borough Community Information Center. Karla Zervos,Executive Director of the Fairbanks Visitor and Convention Borough. Bob Dempsey,Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce. Bill Workman,Consultant,Socioeconomic Analysis. Virginia Hanna,Alaska Northwest Pipeline Company. Dave Williams,Land Planner,Doyon Corporation. Sue Fison,Director,Socioeconomic Studies,Northwest Alaskan Pipeline Company --Availability of socioeconomic data and review of recent and upcoming activities. 2. 3. ~4. 5. 6. 7. 8. - 97 - - - -I - - - - 9.Alan Jubenville,Principal Investigator,Recreation &Land Use S~udies,Susitna Hydroelectric Project. 10.Bill Workman,Consultant,Socioeconomic Analysis,Susitna Hydroe 1ectr ic Proj ect. Anchorage,Alaska 1.Heinz Noonan,Economist,Alaska Department of Energy. 2.Marge Sagerser,Land Manager,Cook Inlet Region,Inc. 3.Lee Gorsuch and Scott Goldsmith,Institute for Social Research. 4.Mike Meehan,Director of Planning,and Shawn Hemme,Assistant Planner,Municipality of Anchorage. 5.Nancy Blunk,Alaska Power Authority. 6.Robert Krogseng,Resident Manager,TES. 7.Richard Ender,University of Alaska Urban Observatory. Pa1mer,Alaska 1.Don Lyon,Executive Director of OEDP,Inc. 2.Bud Goodyear,Public Information Officer,Matanuska Valley Electric Co. 3.Chamber of Commerce. 4.Delon Brown,U.S.Department of Agricu1ture. Juneau,Alaska 1.David Reume,Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Develop- ment. 2.Hugh Malone,House Power Alternatives Study Committee. Seattle,Washington 1.Terry Galbraith,Public Relations Officer,Puget Sound Power and Light Co. '2.Dan Sternborn,Team Leader,EIS Review Section,and Judi Schwarz,Environmental Protection Specialist,Environmental Evaluation Branch,U.S.Environmental Protection Agency. 98 - - B. Richland,Washington 1.Alice Lee,Coordinator -Socioeconomic Division,Washington Public Power Supply System. Arlington,Virginia 1.Gene Allen,Information Resources Press. WORK PACKAGE 4 The following persons were contacted during the beginning of Work Package 4.The purpose of these contacts was to identify and revi ew forecasting methods and applications of such methods. Portland,Oregon 1.Ruth Love,Sociologist,U.S.Army Engineer District. New York,New York 1.C.P.Wolf,Editor,Social Impact Assessment. Anchorage,Alaska 1.Scott Goldsmith,Assistant Professor of Economics,Institute of Social and Economic Research,University of Alaska. ..... - r C.PROJECT MANAGEMENT Talkeetna,Alaska 1.Various citizens. Watana Base Camp,Alaska 1.Alan Jubenville,Principal Investigator,Recreation &Land Use Studies,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,and Dr.Jubenville's staff. 2.Various Susitna Hydroelectric Project team members including, but not limited to,archaeologists,avian ecologist (Dr.B. Kessel),predator ecologist (Dr.P.Gipson),drillers,and seismologists. High Lake Lodge,Alaska 1.John Wilson,Resident Manager. 99 r Anchorage,Alaska 1.Nancy Blunk,Coordinator,Public Participation Program,Alaska Power Authority. Seattle,Washington 1.Bill Workman,Consultant,Socioeconomic Analysis,Susitna Hydro- electric Project. L'BRARY HABITAT DF1VF1~~~GAME KA DEPT.0 dALAS333RaspberryRO:9518AnchorageJA\aska 100