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HomeMy WebLinkAboutShallow Temperature Survey Naknek Electric Association SHALLOW TEMPERATURE SURVEY NAKNEK GEOTHERMAL SOURCES, ALASKA HDL 07-303 February 8, 2008 Lorie M. Principal G Dilley, PE/CPG eologist 3335 Arctic Blvd., Ste. 100 Anchorage, AK 99503 Phone: 907.564.2120 2 Fax: 907.564.212 Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page i TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................... 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................... 3 2.0 BACKGROUND AND PREVIOUS FINDINGS.......................................... 3 2.1 LOCATION....................................................................................................... 3 2.2 CLIMATE.......................................................................................................... 4 2.3 GEOLOGICAL EVALUATION ....................................................................... 5 3.0 SHALLOW TEMPERATURE PROBE METHOD...................................... 6 4.0 SHALLOW TEMPERATURE SURVEY RESULTS .................................. 7 5.0 THERMAL MODELING .......................................................................... 10 5.1 ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS .................................................................. 11 6.0 CONCLUSIONS...................................................................................... 12 7.0 LIMITATIONS .........................................................................................13 8.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY .....................................................................................14 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Vicinity Map Figure 2 Site Map Figure 3 Map Legend Figure 4 Absolute Temperatures on Topo Map Figure 5 Deviatoric Temperatures on Landsat Map Figure 6 Deviatoric Temperatures on Aeromagnetic Anomaly Map LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A Photo Log Appendix B Geochemistry Report for Lynx Road Spring Water Appendix C Thermal Modeling Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Naknek Electric Association in Naknek, Alaska generates power to meet the demand of 3 megawatts (MW) in the winter with an increase to 7.3 MW during the summer months due to the canneries and fish processing. The communities of Naknek and King Salmon have a population of 1120 according to the 2000 census. The regional power peak demand is approximately 8.4 MW in the winter and 13.1 MW in the summer, and includes the load from 23 local communities. The production of a regional geothermal facility has the potential to displace the use of 3.5 million gallons of diesel fuel annually. The cost of diesel in 2007 ranges from $2.20 to $4.46 per gallon in the area. NEA envisions as many as 30 local communities could eventually benefit from a geothermal power project, starting with a 25-megawatt plant and expanding the capacity in 12.5 MW increments as additional communities are connected and demand increases. Financial feasibility of this project depends on the existence of an economically viable resource in the Naknek area. No direct evidence of an economically feasible resource in the Naknek area has been found to date (HDL, 2007). However, previous work has found several overlapping datasets of interest in the Naknek-King Salmon area, pointing to a region for further consideration. Linear magnetic anomalies indicate the possibility of crossing faults in the King Salmon area, which could provide a mechanism for deeper, warmer fluids to rise. Remote sensing work by LAPP, Inc. indicates thermally anomalous surface areas. Geothermometry on fluids from the bottom of a well drilled to 255 feet near King Salmon indicated that the fluids may have at some point and at some unknown depth been at about 90°C (190°F). To further investigate this region of interest, a shallow temperature survey was undertaken in November, 2007. One hundred temperature measurements were made at a depth of 2 meters (6 feet) below the ground surface. Results were corrected for basic differences in soil type and solar exposure by taking the average for each group of measurements and then finding the deviation of each temperature from this average. Sources of error in these deviatoric measurements may come from microclimates, shallow groundwater flow and soil moisture, and differences in vegetation. This survey points to three regions worthy of further study. An apparent temperature anomaly was noted near a spring off of Lynx Road in Naknek. A geochemical assessment of the water of the spring indicates anomalous silica suggesting a small percentage of admixed deep thermal water. A number of probe locations returned anomalous temperature readings in the area around King Salmon, especially near the Air Force base. Although this may be due to the heat island effect of the town (paved areas and heated buildings may be contributing to the heat in the ground), it is interesting that this apparent anomaly occurs near the crossing of two roughly linear Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 2 aeromagnetic lows. A couple of anomalous temperatures were measured about 3 miles northeast of King Salmon. This area also corresponds with aeromagnetic lows and a possible temperature anomaly noted by Lapp, Inc in a remote sensing study. Denser probing in each location would help investigate the possible anomalies. Geochemical investigation and investigation of the local temperature gradient by deeper drilling (to greater than 20 meters) may also assist in determining the existence of thermal anomalies. Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 3 SHALLOW TEMPERATURE SURVEY NAKNEK GEOTHERMAL SOURCES, ALASKA 1.0 INTRODUCTION This study presents the results of our shallow temperature probe survey in the Naknek region of the Alaska Peninsula. The purpose of this survey was to map areas of elevated temperature at the depth of 6 feet below the ground surface as a preliminary tool for geothermal prospecting in the Naknek region. This report is based on the literature review conducted, HDL field work, and information presented in a previous HDL report entitled ‘Preliminary Geological Evaluation, Naknek Geothermal Sources’ dated September 13, 2007. This is a preliminary survey to indicate locations of thermal anomalies that may be associated with a geothermal source. 2.0 BACKGROUND AND PREVIOUS FINDINGS 2.1 LOCATION Naknek is located on the Alaska Peninsula in the Bristol Bay Borough, Alaska. The area is located at Latitude at 58°44′23″N, Longitude 156°58′18″W. Naknek is located on the north bank of the Naknek River, close to where the river runs into the Kvichak Bay arm of the northeastern end of Bristol Bay. A vicinity map is presented in Figure 1 and topographic site map in Figure 2. Naknek is accessible by air and sea, and connects to King Salmon via a 15.5-mile road. The Tibbetts Airport in Naknek has a lighted 1,700 foot long by 60 foot wide gravel runway. The State-owned Naknek Airport is located one mile north of Naknek. It has a 1,950 foot long by 50 foot wide lighted gravel runway and a 2,000 foot float plane landing area. Jet services are available at King Salmon. The closest zones of known geothermal resource are associated with the volcanic centers in Katmai about 70 miles to the southeast and at Ukinrek Maars and gas rocks about 70 miles to the south. The hottest thermal springs in the Katmai Cluster are measured at 167°C (333°F) on Mount Mageik according to the Geothermal Resources of Aleutian Arc. The most recent temperature measurement of the surface waters at Ukinrek Maars is 16°C (61°F). Gas Rocks is located a little over a mile north of the Maars. These have a measured surface temperature of 39°C (102°F), with a reservoir temperature of 108°C (226°F) listed in the Geothermal Resources of Aleutian Arc. The occurrence and behavior of faults is important in geothermal exploration. Geothermal potential is related to open fractures and faults which may provide pathways for geothermally heated fluids to migrate in the crust, and the movement of faults in the Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 4 presence of friction provides a mechanism for heat generation. The Bruin Bay Fault cuts through Katmai National Park to the east of Naknek and can be mapped for 330 miles from Mt. Susitna to the south shore of Becharof Lake. This is the closest mapped fault to Naknek, but there may be faults buried beneath the deep glacial sediments that overlie the Naknek area. 2.2 CLIMATE Naknek is located in a marine climate. Precipitation at the King Salmon airport averages almost 20 inches, with 45 inches of snowfall annually (AEDIS). Highest amounts of precipitation are generally in the months of July through October. Average maximum summer temperature is 63.5°F (17.5°C), average minimum winter temperature is 7.7°F (-13.5°C), average yearly temperature is about 34.5°F (1.4°C). Recent analysis of air temperature data for the King Salmon station shows that the area is experiencing a warming trend. The following graph from the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (2007) shows the increase in the mean annual temperature from 1949 to 2006. In King Salmon the trend is an increase of 4.3°F (2.4°C) or 0.08 °F (.04°C) per year for the 57 year period, See Figure 2.2.1. Figure 2.2.1 Mean Annual Temperatures for King Salmon from 1949 to 2006, with 5-year moving average in red and trend line in black. Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 5 2.3 GEOLOGICAL EVALUATION A previous report has been provided by HDL entitled ‘Preliminary Geological Evaluation, Naknek Geothermal Sources’ and dated September 13, 2007. The information that follows is a summary of some of the relevant data from that report. Aeromagnetic Anomalies Aeromagnetic data on the Alaska Peninsula shows both positive and negative anomalies in the near vicinity of Naknek. There are apparent northeast to southwest linear trends in both the high and low magnetic anomaly areas, as well as a more “blobby” structure. Glacial sediments tend to be non-magnetic. Magnetic anomalies could represent underlying rocks with a more magnetic signature, such as buried volcanic flows or intrusions or sedimentary rocks with magnetic components. Magnetic lows or high gradients in the magnetic anomalies (such as abrupt changes from high to low) may correspond to fault traces. Remote Sensing A remote sensing study was undertaken by Lapp Resources, Inc. They used airborne digital multispectral video to visually search for evidence of natural linear trends in the region that could be significant geologic features such as faults. They also used the visual colored images to search for anomalous or unusual looking areas. These areas may represent altered sediments or stressed vegetation, and could be caused by hydrocarbon or geothermal “microseepage”. Three larger areas of these anomalies are identified near the Naknek River in the vicinity of King Salmon. These areas also seem to nearly correspond with the location of the crossing area of two linear aeromagnetic lows. Geothermal Potential The regional temperature gradient in the whole Alaska Peninsula away from volcanic centers seems to be in the range of 2°F or slightly less per 100 feet (or about 36°C per kilometer). This is corroborated by bottom hole temperatures from wells drilled in the area for oil exploration. To utilize this regional temperature gradient to produce geothermal power in Naknek, wells of about 10,700 feet (3,260 meters) deep would be needed, given that the starting ground temperature at the surface is around 36°F (2.2°C) and that traditional geothermal power plants have needed fluids in excess of around 250°F (120°C) to operate in a commercially viable way. Natural enhancements to this background geothermal gradient would increase the geothermal viability of the area. Faults, for example, that allow deeper, hotter, fluids to rise towards the surface or laterally from a source near the volcanic centers could provide this enhancement. Although no faults have yet been mapped in the Naknek area, and no direct evidence for an enhanced geothermal gradient exists, possible Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 6 thermally anomalous areas and linear (fault-like) features have been identified in the region of Naknek by remote sensing (Lapp Resources, Inc, 2006). Particularly intriguing are the correspondence of the linear magnetic anomaly lows in the vicinity of the NEA drilling sites and the three large (possibly thermal) anomalies noted by Lapp Resources, Inc. A northeast to southwest-trending linear magnetic low appears to cross one trending northwest to southeast in this region. These lows could indicate the presence of crossing faults in this area. Additionally, the shallow test well drilled by NEA this year at the gravel pit site confirmed the presence of shallow bedrock and fluids at depth, and geothermometry indicated the possibility of warm source fluids. The region encompassing these anomalies and the gravel pit site were therefore chosen for a shallow temperature probe survey to investigate local thermal anomalies. 3.0 SHALLOW TEMPERATURE PROBE METHOD Shallow temperature measurements from 1 to 2 meters below the ground surface have been used successfully to find and delineate blind geothermal resources in other areas (e.g. Coolbaugh et al, 2007; Leshack et al, 1979). These results can be used without much correction in ideal locations such as in the arid southwestern United States, where soil types are relatively uniform and soil moisture and shallow ground water are not much of a factor (Coolbaugh, 2007). In areas with less ideal conditions, an estimate of soil diffusivity (or conductivity) and knowledge of shallow groundwater flow can help correct the raw data and provide data that adequately matches temperature gradient anomalies provided by deeper drilling (Leshack et al, 1979). Despite these caveats, shallow temperature probing can be a good geothermal prospecting tool, allowing relatively cheap and rapid reconnaissance of an area, and provide an indication of locations of temperature anomaly. Fieldwork was conducted between November 12 and 17, 2007. November was considered a good time to do field work, as the ground was still soft enough to permit easy penetration of the probes, and precipitation and infiltration of surface water into the subsurface is minimal. A photo log of the field work is presented in Appendix A, showing many of the procedural steps to the survey. One hundred test probe locations were driven to a depth of 2 meters (6 feet) by two teams of two workers. One-quarter-inch inside diameter steel pipe probes were driven into the ground approximately 2 meters (6 feet) deep. A Resistance Temperature Detector (RTD) was inserted into the probe, and after the subsurface was allowed to stabilize the soil temperature was recorded. Probes were driven daily from November 12 until November 17. Temperatures were measured in the bottom of the probes from November 13 through 17. Probes were generally left in the ground over night and temperatures were measured the next day. On the final day of fieldwork, some temperatures were measured after the probe had been in the ground for an hour, which is considered enough time for temperature equilibration of the steel probe with the ground. Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 7 Probe emplacement on tundra away from roads and trails was hampered by the rough and sometimes soft nature of the ground, and by impassable streams and lakes. For this reason, most probes were driven within about 30 meters of a road or trail to get good initial coverage of the area. See Figure 4 for probe locations. Two recording stations were set up to monitor hourly changes in temperature at two probe locations on opposite ends of the investigated area. Both of these stations were in areas with trees. Daily effects were not expected at the probe depth, and seasonal effects were also expected to be very small. No detectable changes were noted in the temperatures at the recording stations over the 5 days that temperatures were recorded. The temperature change detection limit of our equipment was about 0.25°C. Thus, no correction was made to our measured temperature for seasonal changes. If additional work is done, it will be necessary to drive one or two probes as near as possible to probe locations from this survey to tie the two surveys together by correcting for seasonal variations in ground temperature. Similarly, repeated measurements of temperature must be made in these probe locations throughout the length of the survey to correct for any seasonal variations during the survey. 4.0 SHALLOW TEMPERATURE SURVEY RESULTS A first look at the data (below) reveals that at least two different populations are present in the measurements. Areas of tundra devoid of trees generally had temperatures at 6 feet in depth between 1 and 3°C, with an average of about 2.2°C. Areas with trees or brush (even if these trees were sparse or small) appear to belong to a separate population with a range of about 3 to 6°C, with an average value near 4.7°C. The difference in the average temperature observed between the tundra and tree area is probably due to differences in the thermal diffusivities of the soils underlying the sites; to shallow groundwater differences; and to the vegetation’s ability to trap heat. Areas of tundra without any trees are likely underlain by poorly drained, fine grained soils and organics. These areas may also be underlain by permafrost deeper than 6 feet, though no probe locations in this survey found frozen ground at 6 feet in depth. Two other small groups were separated off. Three probes were driven in gravel pits, and four were identified to be in regions with southern exposure. Both of these areas were found to be warmer than even the tree areas on average, as could be expected from enhanced solar heating due to lack of ground cover or southern exposure. Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 8 Histogram of Recorded Temperatures by Ground Type 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 11.522.533.54 55.566.577.5 Temperature Bins - Degrees CFrequency Tundra Trees South Gravel A legend to the maps showing temperature measurements is presented in Figure 3. Figure 4 presents a map of the area with absolute temperature at probe locations indicated by the color of the dot, as given in the map legend. No correction is made here for the differing populations discussed above, and one is cautioned against drawing conclusions from this map alone. Figures 5 and 6 present maps of the area where deviations of temperature from the average for the population are plotted. These deviations were calculated as follows: First the probe locations were divided up into the four groups (tundra, trees, south facing, gravel pits). An average was obtained for each of these four groups, and this average was subtracted off from each measurement in the group to arrive at the temperature deviation. The absolute range of temperatures measured is less than 7°C, after the above corrections, the range of deviation is about 5.5°C. This is not a large range, but shallow temperature probing of a known anomaly at Upsal Hogback in Nevada had a temperature range of about 4°C. Upsal Hogback was an unknown geothermal area until 1903, when a well being drilled for a survey camp hit boiling water at about 60 feet in depth (Garside and Schilling, 1979). Several explanations for temperature deviations on Figures 5 and 6 are possible. In some cases, the probe locations may not have been put in the correct representative group. For example, some tundra locations were small and near to tree locations, so Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 9 may have thermal characteristics at depth more closely resembling the tree areas (see the Thermal Modeling section below). This example would result in an apparent “hot spot” that may not be real, but instead is due to the incorrectly assumed thermal characteristics. Variations in thermal diffusivity, sun exposure; soil moisture, ground water presence and flow, measurement errors, microclimates, vegetative cover differences, and precipitation and snow cover differences could all also cause erroneous temperature deviations to be noted. Given the above caveats, three areas appear worthy of further study at this time. An apparent temperature anomaly was noted near a spring off of Lynx Road in Naknek (Figures 5 and 6). A geochemical assessment of water sampled from the spring by Bill Edwards of NEA was carried out in December of 2007 at the New Mexico Tech Laboratory. The analysis by David Norman at New Mexico Tech is presented in Appendix B and shows the water has low total dissolved solids and has a chemical composition similar to rainwater. A high iron content suggests bog waters. The silica content is slightly high, suggesting a small percentage of admixed deep thermal water. Geothermometry is the process of using the chemistry of a fluid to indicate if the water has had contact with higher temperature fluid. Using the silica content, a quartz geothermometer puts the temperature at about 62°C (144°F). It is unknown at what depth or at what point in the fluid’s history this temperature was achieved, and certain assumptions are made in the calculation, including no mixing or boiling of the fluid. This is slightly less than the geothermometry temperature result for the Naknek River water from our previous report, ‘Preliminary Geological Evaluation, Naknek Geothermal Sources’. Further shallow temperature probes nearby may indicate the nature and extent of this possible anomaly. A number of probe locations returned anomalous temperature readings in the area around King Salmon, especially near the Air Force base. Although this may be due to the heat island effect of the town (paved areas and heated buildings may be contributing to the heat in the ground), or to some other effect of being a populated area, it is interesting that this apparent anomaly occurs near the crossing of two roughly linear aeromagnetic lows (Figure 6). These magnetic lows may indicate the presence of faults, and crossing high-angle faults commonly provide the pathway for warm fluids to rise toward the surface in areas of geothermal activity. This area could be investigated by a denser arrangement of probes to help delineate the apparent temperature anomaly and investigate whether it follows populated areas or the aeromagnetic lows more closely. It may be especially useful here to drive probes on the south side of the Naknek River near this location and in the LAPP feature anomaly (Figure 5). A couple of anomalous temperatures were measured about 3 miles northeast of King Salmon (labeled Area 3 on Figures 5 and 6). This area also corresponds with aeromagnetic lows and a possible temperature anomaly noted by Lapp, Inc in a remote Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 10 Sinusoidal Temperature Change Spring Summer – max avg. air temperature Winter – min avg. air temperature Fall Avg. annual air temperature sensing study. Denser probing around the two probes with the highest deviatory temperature in this location would help investigate this possible anomaly. If further shallow temperature probing is conducted, it is recommended that it be performed in the winter when the Naknek River is frozen to permit easy access to the south side with equipment, and sufficient snow covers the ground to make travel on the tundra easier. Probes should still be drivable even when the ground is frozen. 5.0 THERMAL MODELING To investigate the effect of varying soil properties and other conditions on measured subsurface temperatures, a simple thermal model was conducted for the Naknek area using TEMPW, a finite element program. The program generates a three dimensional (x, y, and time) thermal model based on the climate, soils, starting temperatures, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, and unfrozen water content. The cross-sections shown in Appendix C, have two basic regimes based on the assumed subsurface conditions. The ‘tundra’ type noted above is modeled as moist, silty soils overlain by a meter of peaty material. The ‘tree’ type is modeled as better drained, less moist, gravelly soils, again overlain by a meter of organic/peaty soil. The cross-section is divided into a series of elements and each corner of the element (typically a rectangle) is assigned an initial condition. The initial condition is assumed based on the local climate. TEMPW uses the fundamental laws of thermodynamics to predict ground temperature changes with changes in boundary conditions, and includes the effects from latent heat transfer during the phase change from ice to water. The program was used to estimate the effect of differing soil types and other conditions on the subsurface temperatures. In order to predict how the subsurface temperatures change with the seasons and to arrive at more accurate subsurface temperatures than those applied as initial conditions; a boundary function is applied at the model’s ground surface. Four temperature points were input to simulate the sinusoidal temperature distribution. These four points are the average annual air temperature for “spring” and “fall” and the minimum average air temperature for “winter” and maximum average air temperature for “summer”. The program interpolates between these four points to create a sinusoidal air temperature boundary function that matches the actual air temperatures. See Section 2.2, Climate, for temperature information used in the model. The model is Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 11 set to run in time steps for 40 years, and arbitrary length chosen to allow the model time to thermodynamically model the interaction of differing subsurface soils with the same surface climate. Snap-shots of the temperature profile may be viewed in any of the four seasons. In this case, we present the results for fall, to correspond most closely to the November fieldwork time-span. Two models were developed for the thermal analysis: 1) Base Model: Half silt (tundra) and half gravel (tree) 2) Base Model plus Water Body: includes a small water body in the silt area 5.1 ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS Thermal conductivities and volumetric heat capacities were estimated for each material type except ice, which is fixed within certain temperature limits. Thermal conductivity defines how much heat is transferred from one soil unit to the next. Thermal conductivity is dependent upon the soil type (coarse grain, fine grain, or organic), unit weight, and moisture content of the material. The thermal conductivities used in the model were based on properties of typical silts and gravels and may vary significantly from those found in the study area. Variations in soil types and moisture contents in the study area, the effects of snow cover, topography, shade, and moving shallow ground water, among other things, may reduce the accuracy of our models for predicting subsurface temperatures. Despite the simplicity of this model, it does reflect the gross differences seen between the tundra and tree areas. The base model in Appendix C, Figure C1 predicts the temperature at 2 meters depth to be 2.2°C in the silt far from the boundary with the gravel soil, which is the average temperature measured in the tundra areas. It predicts the temperature in the gravel soils to be 5.6°C at 2 meters depth, which is about a degree above the average measured in the tree areas, perhaps because these soils are not as accurately represented by the model gravel. They are very likely more silty than modeled. The base model further predicts that temperatures near a boundary between the two regimes may be measurably affected up to about 15 meters or more from the boundary. Some of our measurements in the tundra areas were within several tens of meters from tree areas, and higher temperatures measured may be explained by the thermal effects of being in proximity to different soils. From this model, a maximum temperature in silts near a boundary with gravels is about 4.8°C, or about 2.6°C above the average. The effect in the gravels is less, with the temperature being a maximum of about 0.6°C lower near a transition to silt. The model including a small water body at the surface, presented in Appendix C, Figure C2, shows a slight increase, by about 0.2°C, in the temperatures measured in the Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 12 neighborhood of such a body to those expected without such a body. The two- dimensional, simulated water body is 3.5 meters deep and 5 meters across. A larger body may be expected to have more of an effect. On visual inspection, there does not seem to be a large correlation between bodies of water and large positive temperature deviances from the mean in our data. These two models do show that thermodynamic effects of varying subsurface soils and surface water bodies can have a measurable effect on the temperature at 2 meters below the ground surface. The maximum amount of these effects due to the conditions modeled is on the order of 3°C in the silts, less in the gravelly soils. 6.0 CONCLUSIONS Shallow temperature measurements have proven to be effective proxies for deeper temperature gradient measurements in other areas, and can be very useful in targeting an area for further geothermal exploration. Even when conditions are near perfect and error sources such as shallow ground water flow are minimized, shallow temperature results must eventually be born out by deeper drilling to verify the presence of a geothermal resource. At this time (December, 2007) a resource has not been confirmed. Further exploration followed by a confirmation phase needs to be conducted prior to any decisions about type of power plant and number of wells. We would recommend that further shallow temperature probes be conducted in the areas of interest identified (near Lynx Road, King Salmon, and Area 3 – Figures 5 and 6). We would also recommend that when seismic data is available in the area, this data be examined to see if buried faults or other features interpreted from the data correspond to other evidence of local anomalies. We would recommend that two or more of the following exploration methods also be conducted for assessing the local thermal and hydrological gradient: 1. Shallow temperature probes concentrated in the three areas of interest. 2. Accurately and uniformly characterize the chemistry of local springs and river waters; 3. Conduct CO2 gas surveys to identify potential faults in select areas; 4. Conduct electric and/or magnetotelluric methods to identify argillic alteration locations and to target potential well locations; 5. Develop a hydrological model of the region by reviewing existing literature and studying deeper wells in the area. Assuming that favorable conditions have been found (corresponding regions of shallow temperature anomalies, geophysical evidence of faults, geochemical indications of geothermal activity), we recommend as the next step the drilling of at least one regional temperature gradient well (to at least 20 meters (60 feet); preferably to 70 meters (200 Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 14 8.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY AEDIS (Alaska Engineering Design Information System): https://rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/ Coolbaugh, Mark F., Sladek, Chris, Faulds, James E., Zehner, Richard E., and Gary L. Oppliger (2007) Use of Rapid Temperature Measurements at 2-Meter Depth to Augment Deeper Temperature Gradient Drilling., Proceedings, 32nd Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering. Giggenbach, W. F. (1986) Graphical techniques for the evaluation of water/rock equilibration conditions by use of Na, K, Mg, and Ca-contents of discharge waters: Proceedings of the 8th New Zealand Geothermal Workshop, University of Auckland Geothermal Institute, p. 37-43. Garside, Larry J., and John H. Schilling (1979) Thermal Waters of Nevada, Bulletin 91, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology. Hanse, Cedric Nathanael. (2005) Factors Affecting Costs of Geothermal Power Development. Geothermal Energy Association. Henley, R.W., A.H. Truesdell & P.B. Barton, Jr. (1984) Fluid-Mineral Equilibria in Hydrothermal Systems, Reviews in Economic Geology, V. 1, Society of Economic Geologists. Kienle, J. and S.E. Swanson (1983) Volcanism in the Eastern Aleutian Arc: Late Quaternary and Holocene Centers , Tectonic Setting and Petrology. [In] B.H. Baker and A.R. McBirney (eds.), Jour. of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 17:393- 432. Kienle, Juergen, Kyle, P. R., Self, Stephen, Motyka, R. J., and Lorenz, Volker (1980) Ukinrek Maars, Alaska: I, April 1977 eruption sequence, petrology and tectonic setting: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, v. 7, n. 1, p. 11-37. Lapp Resources, Inc (2006) Remote Sensing Interpretation, for Naknek Electric Association. LeSchack, Leonard A., Lewis, John E., Chang, David C., Lewellen, Robert I., and Norbert W. O’Hara (1979) Rapid Reconnaissance of Geothermal Prospects Using Shallow Temperature Surveys, LeSchack Associates, LTD. Magoon, L.B., C.M. Molenaar, T.R. Bruns, M.A. Fisher, and Z.C. Valin (1995) 1995 National assessment of United States oil and gas resources – Southern Alaska Province (003), USGS Miller, T. P., McGimsey, R. G., Richter, D. H., Riehle, J. R., Nye, C. J., Yount, M. E., and Dumoulin, J. A. (1998) Catalog of the historically active volcanoes of Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report OF 98-0582, 104 p. Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska February 8, 2008 Page 15 Motyka, R. J., Liss, S. A., Nye, C. J., and Moorman, M. A. (1993) Geothermal resources of the Aleutian Arc: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Professional Report PR 0114, 17 p., 4 sheets, scale 1:1,000,000. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), (1988) Climatic Atlas of the Outer Continental Shelf Waters and Coastal Regions of Alaska. Volume II: Bering Sea. USDOI Mineral Management Service, Alaska Outer Continental Region, OCS Study, MMS 87-0012. Paug-Vik Development Corp. and OASIS Environmental, Inc. (2000) Record of Decision for Final Remedial Action, North Bluff (LF005) and South Bluff (LF014) (Groundwater Zone 3 (OT029)), King Salmon Air Station, Department of the Air Force. Rafferty, Kevin (2000) Geothermal Power Generation, a primer on Low-Temperature, Small-Scale Applications: Fact Sheet by Department of Energy Geo-Heat Center. Smith, R.P., V.J. S. Grauch, and D.D. Blackwell (2002) Preliminary Results of a High- Resolution Aeromagnetic Survey To Identify Buried Faults at Dixie Valley, Nevada, Geothermal Resources Council Transactions, Vol 26 Truesdell, A.H., and Hulston, J. R. (1980) Isotopic Evidence of Environments of Geothermal Systems; in Handbook of Environmental Isotope Geochemistry, v. 1: P. Fritz and J. Ch. Fontes, eds. CHECKED BY:JOB NO.: SHEET:DRAWN BY:DATE: SCALE: ENGINEERING EARTH SCIENCE PROJECT MANAGEMENT PLANNING (907) 564-2120 www.hdlalaska.com SHALLOW TEMPERATURE SURVEY NAKNEK GEOTHERMAL SOURCES 11/20/07NONE MMW LMD 07-303 LEGEND FIGURE:- Absolute Temperatures at 6 feet 1.0 - 1.8 degrees C 1.8 - 2.6 degrees C 2.6 - 3.4 degrees C 3.4 - 4.2 degrees C 4.2 - 5.0 degrees C 5.0 - 5.7 degrees C 5.7 - 6.5 degrees C 6.5 - 7.3 degrees C Temperature Deviation at 6 feet -3.0 - 0.0 degrees C 0.0 - 0.5 degrees C 0.5 - 1.0 degrees C 1.0 - 1.5 degrees C 1.5 - 2.0 degrees C 2.0 - 2.5 degrees C 2.5 - 3.0 degrees C 3.0 - 3.6 degrees C ^_NEA Drill Sites LAPP Features Anomaly Circular Linear LEGEND Magnetic Anomaly Low High ^_ ^_ ^_ Recording Station Recording Station NAKNEK KING SALMON Area 3 Lynx Rd. South Side Gravel Pit Site Pikes Ridge Site CHECKED BY:JOB NO.: SHEET:DRAWN BY:DATE: SCALE: APPENDIX A Photo Log Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska Appendix A-Photo Log Page A-1 Assembling field gear, including generators, drivers, and probes (pipes in bundles at lower right) - probes are marked off at 6’ from closed end w/ paint pen prior to driving. Driving a probe with the smaller driver on the tundra. Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska Appendix A-Photo Log Page A-2 Drilling out the hole at the top of the probe, which tends to get deformed by the driving. Driving a Shallow Temperature Probe with the Hilti driver Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska Appendix A-Photo Log Page A-3 A probe with its insulated cap. Wire sticking out is the lead from the RTD (Resistance Temperature Detector). Inserting RTD (Resistance Temperature Detector) in probe at least one hour after driving. Reading the resistance of the RTD. This is converted to temperature by a simple equation. Naknek Electric Association Shallow Temperature Survey HDL 07-303 Naknek Geothermal Sources, Alaska Appendix A-Photo Log Page A-4 Removing a probe driven in Hermann's gravel pit. Removal was done either with a pipe wrench or with a jack and wrench. Removing a probe from an area with brush and small trees - this would be considered a 'tree' area. APPENDIX B Geochemistry Report for Lynx Road Spring Water REPORT ON GEOTHERMOMETRY SAMPLE:  Naknek Lynx Spring The analysis shows the water has low TDS; it is almost rainwater. High Fe suggests bog waters. The silica  is anomalous, which suggests a small percentage of admixed deep thermal water. Admixed thermal  water is too small to show un Giggenbach’s diagrams. Aluminum is high for such a low TTDS sample. I  would disregard alkali geothermonetry on such a low TDS sample.  Analysis pH 7.4 Conductivity (uS/cm) 74 TDS (ppm) (calculation) 54 TDS (ppm) (gravimetric) ANALYSIS Conc. (mg/L) meq/L Hardness (CaCO3) 22 Alkalinity Carbonate (CO32-) 0.0000 Bicarbonate (HCO3-) 33 0.5409 Major Anions Bromide (Br) <0.1 0.0000 Chloride (Cl-) 3.4 0.0959 Fluoride (F-) <0.1 0.0000 Nitrite (NO2-) <0.1 0.0000 Nitrate (NO3-) <0.1 0.0000 Phosphate (PO43-) <0.5 0.0000 Sulfate (SO42-) 1.9 0.0396 Major Cations Sodium (Na) 4.5 0.1958 Potassium (K) 0.49 0.0127 Magnesium (Mg) 2.6 0.2139 Calcium (Ca) 4.5 0.2205 Total meq/L Cations 0.71 Total meq/L Anions 0.68 % Difference 2.34 ANALYSIS Conc. (mg/L) meq/L Aluminum (Al) 0.14 0.0161 Antimony (Sb) <0.001 Arsenic (As) <0.001 Barium (Ba) 0.054 Beryllium (Be) <0.001 Boron (B) 0.004 Cadmium (Cd) <0.001 Chromium (Cr) <0.001 Cobalt (Co) <0.001 Copper (Cu) 0.001 Iron (Fe) 0.91 0.0486 Lead (Pb) <0.001 Lithium (Li) <0.001 Manganese (Mn) 0.008 0.0006 Molybdenum (Mo) <0.001 Nickel (Ni) <0.001 Selenium (Se) <0.001 Silica (SiO2) 19 Silicon (Si) 8.8 Silver (Ag) <0.001 Strontium (Sr) 0.025 0.0006 Thalium (Tl) <0.001 Thorium (Th) <0.001 Tin (Sn) 0.001 Titanium (Ti) 0.007 Uranium (U) 0.000 Vanadium (V) 0.002 Zinc (Zn) 0.001 0.0000 GEOTHERMOMERTY Analysis    Geothermometers         (ppm)                SiO2 19  Quartz ‐ no steam loss 62 C   Na 4.5  Quartz ‐ max. steam loss 67 C   K 0.49  Chalcedony  30 C   Ca 4.5  a‐Cristobalite  12 C   Mg 2.6  b‐Cristobalite  ‐31 C      Amorphous silica  ‐47 C      Na/K   225 C      Na‐K‐Ca beta = 4/3* 14 C      Na‐K‐Ca beta = 1/3 138 C      K‐Mg   21 C               * use if t<100C and  (2.06+LOG10((Ca^0.5)/Na) > 0     (2.06+LOG10((Ca^0.5)/Na) = 1.73    APPENDIX C Thermal Modeling Fall- base, Green - Peat, Blue - Silt, Orange - Gravel 2.2 3 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.6 Length - meters 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Elevation - meters0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Fall- base w/ Water Body(Aqua), Green - Peat, Blue - Silt, Orange - Gravel 2 .4 3.4 3.4 4.8 5.4 5.6 5.8 Length - meters 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Elevation - meters0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55