HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA1391ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC
PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PART A
PLAN OF STUDY
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ALASKA POWE.R AUTHORITY
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC
PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PART A
PLAN OF STUDY
SEPTEMBER 1979
ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED
In Association with:
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COOK INLET REGION INC./ HOLMES & NARVER INC. FRANK MOOLIN & ASSOCIATES INC.
R&M CONSULTANTS INC. SALOMON BROTHERS
TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENTAL SPECIALISTS INC. WOODWARD-CLYDE CONSULTANTS
ARLIS
Alaska Resources
Library & Information Serv1ce.~
Anchorage, Alaska
Copy No. _ _,.3-<.0_
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Hr. Eric Yould
Executive Director
Alaska Power Authority
333 West 4th -Suite 31
Anchorage, Alaska 99501
September 8, 1979
P5477.00
Dear Mr. Yould: Susitna HydroeJectric Project
Plan of Study
In accordance with your request dated June 25, 1979, I am pleased to submit
herewith our Plan of Study for a program of work leading to FERC license
application for the construction of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project. The Plan
of Study, which has been assembled in the format prescribed in your Request for
Proposals, comprises the following component volumes:
-Executive Summary
-Part A-Plan of Study
-Part B-Implementation of the Plan of Study
-Part C-Volume CI; Supplemental Information
-Volume CII; Company Experience
-Volume CIII; Environmental Appendix
For your guidance, an overall Table of Contents has been included Hith each
volume, in addition to the detailed volume indexes.
To prepare and implement the Plan of Study, Acres has assembled a first class
team which we are confident will be fully responsive to the needs and
requirements of the Alaska Power Authority in the successful completion of this
and subsequent phases of the Susitna Project. This team is composed as
follows:
Project management and
lead architect/engineer:
Geotechnical field
studies:
Construction management:
Environmental assessment:
Seismic studies:
Financial advisors:
Acres American Incorporated
R&~ Consultants Incorporated
Frank Moolin & Associates
Terrestrial Environmental
Specialists, Incorporated
Woodward-Clyde Consultants
Salomon Brothers
ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED
Consulting Engineers
The Liberty Bank Building. Main at Court
Buffalo. New York 14202
Telephone 716-853-7525 Telex 91-6423 ACRES BUF
Other Offices: Columbia, MD: Pittsburgh, PA: Raleigh, NC: Washington, DC
Buffalo, NY and
Columbia, MD
Anchorage, AK
Anchorage, AK
Phoenix, NY
San Francisco, CA
Anchorage, AK
New York, NY
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Susitna Hydroelectric Project
Plan of Study-2
Logistic support: Cook Inlet Region Incorporated/
Holmes & Narver
September 8, 1979
P5477 .00
Anchorage, AK
This team can clearly demonstrate "hands on" proficiency in the planning and
implementation of projects of the type and magnitude of Susitna; as overall team
leaders, Acres American can draw upon the knowledge and experience gained for
the design of more than ten major hydroelectric facilities in the northern
environment having a total installed capacity in excess of eleven thousand
megawatts.
The proposed Plan of Study, set out in detail in Section A5 of this submission,
has been specifically aimed both to satisfy the License Application requirements
of the FERC, and to generate the requisite information for the financial
community. A carefully balanced and flexible study program addressing each of
the key factors in the decision process, has been assembled with clear provision
for proper participation by the public and for periodic review by the AP.".
The total estimated cost of the study program leading to license application
amounts to $19.7 million in 1979 dollars. An additional amount of $3.4 million
is required to conduct effective public participation, financing and local
project management programs and to satisfy certain non-discretionary funding
requirements discussed in Section A.3 of this submission. Of the total,
approximately 70% ($16.5 million) will be spent in Alaska through our Alaska
Project Office located in Anchorage by the Alaska based team members, and
through the various field operations required to provide the requisite technical
ar.d environmental data.
I believe that the Acres Team can provide the proper combination of experience
and ability to successfully initiate this key first phase of this challenging
project, and to follow through in the subsequent design and construction phases.
A draft contract, which I would suggest provides the APA with the requisite
level of protection and direction, will be found in Part C of this Submission.
I look forward with confidence to your evaluation.
DCW:ah
Enclosure: 4 copies of POS
Copies; As shown on attached distribution,
each with one copy of POS.
ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED
Yours very truly,
D. C. \~ill ett
D\i
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Vice President and
t1anager, Hydroelectric Divsion
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The contents of this proposal are provided
for the sole use of the State of Alaska,
the Alaska Power Authority, and such other
agents of the Alaska P01~er Authority as may
be designated to revie~1 and evaluate its
contents. Proprietary information is
contained herein. Unauthorized reproduc-
tion or disclosure of the contents, in
whole or in part, to any individual or
organization other than those specified,
1~ithout the express approval of an officer
of Acres American, is strictly prohibited.
ARLIS
Alaska Resources
Library & Infonnatwn Servtces
Anchorage, Alaska
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This Plan of Study could not have been produced without major contributions
from each corporate member of the Acres team. Frequent cross country.
journeys, long hours devoted to preparation of inputs, and an unusual
degree of effort from various administrative support staffs have together
been instrumental in completing the assigned task--and much of the v10rk has
been an out-of-pocket expense for each corporate member. In addition to
this enthusiastic support, however, a number of other individuals and
organizations have cooperated fully and advised sagely.
The Alaska District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, has made available for
our perusal all of the materials 1~hich have been collected to date in
support of their own feasibility study and subsequent field exploration
program. The genuine interest displayed by the District in providing this
information and in offering many hours of explanation from already busy
staff members is deeply appreciated.
A group of concerned citizens and representatives of environmental groups
was kind enough to offer their time to express issues which they regard as
important. The session spent with them was most helpful as we prepared
plans for environmental studies in particular and for other tasks in
general.
The Alaska Dep.artment of Fish and Game has met with us on a number of
occasions. The thoughtful efforts of that organization in developing a
program necessary to achieve project objectives and in discussing ways and
means to achieve it without compromising ADF&G' s own requirement for
maintaining objectivity have been necessary and important.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has been kind enough to provide us
with advance information regarding possible regulatory changes soon to be
promulgated.
Individual consultants who would serve as principal investigators for
environmental studies and others who have agreed to become candidates for
external review boards have been extremely helpful in laying out this
plan.
The University of Alaska, through its various institutes and individual
faculty members, has made its extensive capabilities known to us and has
offered advice and assistance in planning for their use.
The Alaska Department of Natural Resources has provided a program to us for
the conduct of certain in-stream studies for our consideration.
Discussions with various utilities during prior visits in November 1978,
and subsequently have been helpful to our understanding of the power
market.
The Alaska Power Administration has provided· valuable information about
power surveys, transmission line planning, and unique operational
experiences at existing hydroelectric projects under their control in
Alaska.
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The Bureau of Land Management has offered coordination and explanations
which will be useful in satisfying certain important permit requirements.
Staff members of other Alaska agencies such as the Department of Economic
Development, Department of Commerce, and the Department of Environmental
Conservation have kindly furnished us 11ith statistical data and with vital
information regarding plans for the future in Alaska.
The Fish and Wildlife Service and the National MarineFisheries Service
have offered advice to our environmental planners as the basis for
understanding their roles in our satisfaction of FERC regulations.
We have been impressed with the professionalism displayed by the Alaska
Power Authority in devising the program for possible selection of a private
engineering firm and especially in their impartiality as they scrupulously
provided assistance and advice to the various competitors in this exciting
endeavor.
Other individuals and groups too numerous to mention have contributed as
well. To all who have supported the Acres effort, sincere appreciation is
extended. We are delighted to know that such a high degree of cooperation
exists throughout the State of Alaska and within the organizations of
others having interests there. Our confidence in our ability to
successfully implement this POS has been enhanced immeasurably as a
result.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART A: PLAN OF STUDY
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF PLATES
A1 -PROGRAM OBJECTIVES .IU-1
A2 -STUDY APPROACH -------------------------------------------------A2-1
A3 -BUDGET SUMMARY -------------------------------------------------A3-1
A4 -LOGISTICAL PLAN ------------------------------------------------A4-1
AS -DETAILED ACTIVITY DESCRIPTIONS ---------------------------------AS-1
AS.1 -Introduction -------------------------------------------AS-1
AS.2 -Task 1: Power Studies ---------------------------------AS-2 AS.3 -Task 2: Surveys & Site Facilities ---------------------AS-21
AS.4 -Task 3: Hydrology -------------------------------------AS-46
A5.S -Task 4: Seismic Studies -------------------------------A5-70
A5.6 -Task 5: Geotechnical Exploration ----------------------AS-96
AS. 7 -Task 6: Design Development -----------------------------A5-123
A5.8 -Task 7: Environmental Studies -------------------------AS-188
AS.9 -Task 8: Transmission ----------------------------------A5-226
AS.10 -Task 9: Construction Cost Estimates and Schedules -----AS-241
A5.11 -Task 10: Licensing -------------------------------------AS-251
AS.12 -Task 11: Marketing and Financing -----------------------AS-277
A5.13 -Task 12: Public Participation Program------------------A5-308
A5.14 -Task 13: Administration --------------------------------AS-320
A6 -POST LICENSE APPLICATION SUBMISSION ACTIVITIES -----------------A6-1
A7 -PROJECT SCHEDULES ----------------------------------------------A?-1
PART B: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PLAN OF STUDY
PART C: VOLUME CI
VOLUME CII
VOLUME CIII
-SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
-COMPANY QUALIFICATIONS
-ENVIRONMENTAL APPENDIX
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G LIST OF TABLES
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Number
0 A.3.1.
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A.3.2
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A.3.3
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0 A. 5.1
0 A. 5.2
J A. 5. 3
0 A. 5.4
A. 5. 5
D 1 -Task 10
J 1 -Task 11
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Title
Budget Summary-Pre-License Application
Studies ($ 1979) January 1, 1980 to
June 30, 1982
Budget Summary-Post License Application
Studies ($ 1979)
A3-2
A3-3
Estimated Study Costs by Quarter-Pre-License A3-4
Application Studies ($ 1000) January 1, 1980
to June 30, 1982
Proposed Hydrologic Field Data
Collection Program
Proposed Application of One-Dimensional
Flow Models to the Susitna River
Proposed Geotechnical Exploratory
Program -1980
Proposed Geotechnical Exploratory
Program -1981
Typical Large Francis Units
FERC License Applications: Exhibits
Alaska Power Authority, Susitna
Hydroelectric Power Project, Provisional
List of Bond Offering Support Documents
A5-67 & 68
A5-69
A5-105
A5-112
AS-174
A5-274 -276
A5-301 -304
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LIST OF PLATES
Plate No.
AZ.l
A7.1
A7.2
T1.1
T2.1
T3.1
T3.2
T4.1
T6.1
T6.2
T7 .1
T11.1
T12.1
T12.2
Title
Summary Schedule
Master Schedule-Sheet 1
Master Schedule -Sheet 2
Task 1 -Logic
Logic Diagram-Field Logistical Support
Proposed Data Collection Stations in the
Susitna Basin -1980
Proposed Data Collection Stations in the
Railbelt Area -1980
Task 4 -Schedule
Task 6 -Schedule
Alternative Tunnel Schemes
Task 7 -Schedule
Logic Diagram-Project Financing
Logic Diagram-Public Participation Plan
Feedback Provisions -Public Participation Plan
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SECTION Al -PROGRAM OBJECTIVES Al-l
A.l.l -Introduction
This Plan of Study has been prepared by Acres American Incorporated ·in
response to the Request for Proposal issued on June 25, 1979, by Mr. Eric
Yould, Executive Director of the Alaska Power Authority. It includes
significant contributions from other firms who would generally be involved
as subcontractors in the event that a contract to undertake the study itself
is awarded to Acres American Incorporated. Major participants in the Acres
team include R&M Consultants, Inc.; Woodward Clyde Consultants; Terrestrial
Environmental Specialists, Incorporated; Cook Inlet Region Incorporated/
Holmes and Narver, Incorporated; Salomon Brothers; and Frank Maclin
Associates.
The gestation period for giant projects tends to be long. Wild bursts of
enthusiastic effort followed by periods of genuine apathy (or total despair,
depending upon whose vantage point is selected) are common. Development of
the Susitna River has so far followed that_classic pattern.
As early as 1952, the Bureau of Reclamation published a report identifying a
large number of potential hydroelectric power sites in Alaska, noting
pointedly the strategic advantages enjoyed by the Susitna River because of
its proximity to Anchorage and Fairbanks. Even then, Devil Canyon was
perceived as the place to install a large dam. It was--and is--a steep,
narrow rock waTTed canyon through which silt laden grayish waters swirl and
churn and turn to white froth as they rush for the sea. Updates by the
Bureau led to proposed authorization in 1961 of Devil Canyon and Denali--a
site far up-river of Devil Canyon, astride extensive wet lands and marshy
areas, where the Susitna draws strength from relative placidity before it
attempts the inevitable plunge through miles and miles of canyons.
Another giant project was under active contemplation in the early sixties
and its mind boggling size, together with the engineering challenges it
offered, were especially exciting in a brand new state and during the space
technology wars then being waged. The Rampart hydro project would have
created a pool larger than the State of Connecticut if it had ever been
built.
While the Rampart studies put the Susitna project in limbo for a while, a
number of long time Alaskans worried about the risks of such a venture. As
fate and thoughtful argument would have it, Rampart is unlikely to be built
at any time in this century.
Susitna was delayed long enough, though, to allow for discovery and
development of then economical natural gas production. By the time the
warnings of energy doomsayers were beginning to be heard and felt in 1973,
the Susitna project once again began to appear attractive. The Bureau of
Reclamation updated its earlier studies in 1974, recommending a four dam
system, and the U. s. Army Corps of Engineers launched a major
pre-feasibility study which led to a recommendation in 1976 by the Chief of
Engineers that the Susitna Project be authorized. The Corps plan
recommended two high dams, the first of which would be built as a massive
earthfill gravity structure 810 feet in height at the Watana site more than
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30 miles upstream of Devil Canyon. The second Corps dam was to be 635-foot
high thin arch concrete structure which would sweep across the canyon from
rock abutment to rock abutment--essentially the same as the Bureau's
Devil Canyon proposal.
By June 1978, the Corps of Engineers had prepared a Plan of Study requiring
24 million dollars and offering a program leading to completion of a
detailed feasibility study. Further investigations by the Corps confirmed
the adequacy of the Watana site, though they did reveal that some changes
were required in particular for the spillway arrangement. As the situation
now stands, provided that the necessary appropriations are made, the State
of Alaska could choose to proceed along a course of action which leads to a
study undertaken by the Corps and reimbursed by the State. A unique risk
protection feature would permit the return of State funds in the event that
feasibility is not shown.
The alternative to further federal involvement in the Susitna project is a
scenario which includes selection of a private engineering firm as the
State's consultant. Qualifications have been reviewed by the State for all
those interested firms with strong hydroelectric development capabilities
and three have been engaged to prepare a Plan of Study detailing the steps
necessary to permit filing a license application to the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission (FERC). This Plan of Study describes a series of
tasks and subtasks, al eng with reasons for these, as well as providing
information regarding organizational matters and team qualifications.
A.1.2 -Primary Objectives of Study
(i) Establish technical, economic and financial feasibility of the
Susitna Project to meet future power needs of the Railbelt Region of
the State of Alaska.
(ii) Evaluate the environmental consequencs of designing and constructing
the Susitna Project.
(iii) File a completed license application for the project with the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
A.1.3 -Specific Objectives of the Study
To meet the primary objectives of the study, the following specific
objectives are pro posed:
( i) Determine the future electric power and energy needs of the
Southcentral Railbelt Area.
(ii) Assess alternative means of meeting the load requirements of the
Rail belt Area.
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(iii) Prepare an optimal development plan for the Susitna Project wherein
power costs and probable impacts are minimized, safety is enhanced,
and financing is achievable.
(iv) Establish a definitive estimate of the total cost of bringing power
on line, together with a statement of cash flow requirements.
(v) Evaluate the physical, economic, and financial risks of the Susitna
Project and determine ways and means to avoid or minimize their
consequences.
(vi) Evaluate existing environmental and social factors as they now exist
in the proposed project area, assess the impacts of the proposed
project, enhance environmental values to the extent possible, and
recommend mitigating measures.
(vii) Estimate the annual system power costs in the Southcentral Railbelt
Region with and without the project, study the integration of
Susitna power into the Railbelt utility systems, and assess power
marketability.
(viii) Prepare a complete license application and file this with the
Federal Regulatory Commission.
(ix) Ensure that the needs and desires of the public are known, keep
interested parties and the public informed, and afford an
opportunity for public participation in the study process.
(x) Determine an optimal program for achieving financing, including
resolution of issues regarding tax-exempt status of bonds which may
later be offered.
(xi) Minimize the financial risks and expenditures which must be incurred
by the State of Alaska in pursuit of the above objectives should
development of the Susitna Project prove to be not in the best
interests of the State.
(xii) Maximize opportunities for equal employment opportunities for
Alaskans and for involving in .the work members of those Native
Corporations in the region.
A.l.4. -Primary Aspects for Susitna Requiring Study
(i) Introduction
As with any major hydroelectric project, the number of
investigations and substudies required to achieve the primary
objectives noted in paragraph A.l.2 above is significant. Each of
these requirements is described in terms of precise tasks and
subtasks in Section A5. Even so, a number of primary aspects,
particularly insofar as they address major concerns, deserve to be
highlighted. Thus certain key areas of the study are highlighted in
succeeding subparagraphs.
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(ii) Power Studies
While this Plan of Study had necessarily to be written on the
assumption that project feasibility will in fact be demonstrated, we
are well aware of the importance of demonstrating that a need for
significant increases in power generating capacity does truly exist
in the Railbelt Area and that this need can best be satisfied by the
Susitna Project. Indeed, it is clear that the absence of need or
the discovery of a better means of satisfying it if it exists will
represent prima facie evidence that development of the project is
not in the best interests of the State. Power studies will be
undertaken to examine and define a range of load forecasts and to
assess possible alternatives or groups of alternatives which
together could satisfy the projected demand.
We will avail ourselves of intimate knowledge of Alaska in general
and the Railbelt in particular through employment of the Alaskan
office of Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC) to undertake load fore-
casting studies. WCC in turn has arranged for consultation from the
University of Alaska, particularly for use of their econometric
models. The study of non-hydro alternatives by WCC (reviewed by
Acres' Thermal Power Division) and of hydro alternatives by Acres
will be enhanced through use of the General Electric Optimum Genera-
tion Program, Series V (sophisticated computer models designed to
permit multiyear analysis of generation system mixes) which we have
successfully used in the past for a comprehensive study of alterna-
tives to the Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project in New England.
(iii) Financing Plan
Successful financing of giant projects is inevitably a complex and
time-consuming task. Our own expertise in this area, as evidenced
by participation in the successful financing of the Churchill Falls
Project where Mr. J. G. Warnock managed the team responsible for
bond support documents, will be available to our financial consul-
tants, Salomon Brothers. This well known investment banking firm
has managed or co-managed 655 issues of tax-exempt bonds in the
total amount of $48.3 billion since January 1, 1974. Dr. C. P.
Chapman will manage risk analysis studies. His unique special
capabilities in that area have been demonstrated time and again for
large projects including some in subarctic environments.
(iv) Ice Engineering
The study of ice engineering has necessarily been an important part
of Acres' efforts for past projects in recent years. Our successful
involvement in hydroelectric projects throughout North America, with
a total installed capacity of over 14,000,000 kW, is a matter of
record. Assistance in ice engineering studies will be provided as
well by R&M whose hydrologic investigations of rivers and streams
throughout Alaska has been significant. Our conceptual designs for
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minimizing the problems associated with frazzile ice, ice jams, ice
shelving and the like will be subjected to exhaustive modeling after
license application has been made and during the preparation of
detailed designs. Problems associated with permafrost are also
familiar to the Acres organization: our staff have extensive
experience in developing unique and effective methods of dealing
with such problems in connection with large power projects in
subarctic regions.
(v) Earthquake Engineering
Of the many potential risks associated with the Susitna Project,
those associated with seismic problems are probably the. most signi-
ficant. Certainly, no single area of concern is likely to have more
immediate catastrophic consequences if the engineering work has not
been done thoroughly and well. Not only is it important to design
all structures to survive unscathed in the event of an earthquake,
but it is also essential to determine the extent to which creation
of reservoirs on the Susitna River will itself induce earthquakes.
Our approach to this problem is twofold: first, we have engaged the
services of the California office of WCC to undertake extensive
seismic studies. WCC has operated in Alaska for over ten years and
has amassed a considerable data base on geological and geotechnical
conditions, faulting, and seismicity of the Anchorage and Railbelt
Areas. WCC have also had extensive seismic experience with major
dam and power projects elsewhere. Second, we have recommended a
list of eminent professional engineers whose accomplishments are
recognized worldwide as the basis for selection by the Power
Authority of one or more external review boards. The engineering
board would be provided funds on the order of $1 million with which
to undertake confirmatory or additional seismic studies. Acres
would offer coordination services and administrative support, where
appropriate, to the board(s), but authority to select, remunerate,
terminate and to direct their activities would rem~in with the Power
Authority.
(vi) Project Management/Construction Management
In order to provide Alaskan-experienced project and construction
management capability in the POS team, Acres will combine with its
in-house resources the additional resources of the Frank Mocil in and
Associates, Inc. organization. This company presently operates out
of Fairbanks, Alaska and provides executive project and construction
management experience to the energy industry. The Moolin team
provides many years of "hands-on" experience on varying sizes and
types of projects, including recent responsibility for construction
of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, a $4.2 billion effort. Members of the
organization provide an unusual, multi-disciplined, combination of
energy, industry and·heavy construction experience. In addition,
conditions unique to planning, managing and constructing projects on
the Alaskan scene are familiar to all of these individuals •
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J A2: STUDY APPROACH·
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A2-l
SECTION A2 -STUDY APPROACH
A.2.1 -Discussion of Problems to be Resolved
(i) Introduction
In formulating a logical approach to study of a major hydroelectric
development in a relatively hostile climate and environmentally
sensitive region, it is necessary to identify the particular problems
which must be addressed and to place these in proper perspective with
the more routine elements of technical and economic feasibility
assessment. The objective is to arrive at an optimal development
which recognizes and allows for all constraints imposed, and
addresses such vital issues as environmental acceptability at the
proper stage to allow it be considered adequately through public
participation and other processes to satisfy licensing procedures.
The financial viability of the project is, of course, also a vitally
important consideration which lies beyond the strict technical and
economic parameters of the proposed development. The approach taken
in the overall studies must lead to a confident determination of the
financiability (or otherwise) of the project.
We have identified a number of potential problem areas early in our
planning efforts as the basis for ensuring that the final Plan of
Study will provide adequate measures for dealing with them.
(ii) Optimal Development
Millions of dollars have been spent to date in an effort to determine
just which of many concepts will lead to optimal development.
Optimization, like beauty, though, is in the eyes of the beholder.
The Bureau of Reclamation selected a four dam system to be estab-
lished on the Susitna River. The Corps of Engineers has succeeded in
obtaining authorization to conduct detailed feasibility studies for a
two dam system which would provide essentially the same amount of
power as that for four dams of lesser height. The Corps approach
benefitted from the Bureau of Reclamation's work and built upon it.
The Acres approach will continue that refinement process. In so
doing, though, it must account for certain potential problems:
(a) Load Forecast Accuracy
There has been a nationwide slackening of historically high load
growth rates for electric utility systems since the energy
crisis of 1973. It can no more be assumed that this trend will
continue throughout the next decade or two than it can be
assumed that longer term historical patterns will once again
assert themselves. We must, nonetheless, develop load forecasts
in ~1hose accuracy a high level of confidence can be placed.
{b) Alternatives to Susitna Development
Implicit in the search for optimal development is the identifi-
cation of all reasonable alternatives. We must acquire strong
and reasonably definitive knowledge of alternatives to the
Susitna Project for satisfying projected load forecasts.
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(c) Alternatives for Development of the Susitna River
In the event that no alternative to Susitna Development is found
to be superior in terms of technical, economic, and environ-
mental considerations, we will need to assure the Power
Authority that the Corps of Engineers concept is the most
appropriate. The days when a simple economic test led to plan
selection have long since passed.
(iii) Data Acquisition
Significant portions of the total cost of the Plan of Study are
devoted to the acquisition of additional data. Field studies in the
areas of survey, geotechnical, hydrology, environmental, seismicity,
and transmission will demand a base of support and proper means of
site access and egress in addition to time and equipment for the
purpose. Certain important problem areas include:
(a) Seasonal and Weather Constraints
Most data collection will have to be accomplished during rela-
tively short summer seasons, resulting in high peak loads on
camp facilities (a major consideration in the Logistical Plan in
Section A4) and in particular on demands for certain equipment
(including drilling, special survey, gaging, seismic
instruments) not necessarily in great abundance in Alaska--at
the very time that other projects in the State simultaneously
require like items.
(b) Study Period
The relative brevity of the proposed 30 month study period does
not allow for training personnel to operate in a relatively
harsh sub-arctic environment.
(c) Coordination of the Program
The variety of investigations conducted at the same time in the
same general area and subject to severe, albeit important, land
use restrictions demands an unusual degree of coordination and
management of the data acquisition effort (see also (ix) below).
(iv) Financial Risk
It must be recognized at the outset that severa 1 aspects of tl,e
Susitna Hydroelectric Project will inevitably imply substantial risk
to potential investors. It will be necessary, therefore, to address
all real and perceived risks with a high degree of intensity,
limiting or disposing of as much of the exposure as possible to build
a realistic level of confidence in the project. There will, no
doubt, be residual risks for the potential investor to consider but
attitudes to these will be significantly affected by the way in which
the Alaska Power Authority can demonstrate that all potential
problems have been diligently examined and fully addressed.
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(a) Superposition of a Larse Project on a Small System
In the case of Susitna, a very major, capital intensive project
undertaking is being considered for addition to an existing
utility base of relatively limited facilities and fixed assets.
The financial approach must therefore be on the basis of Project
Financing where funding is raised on the assured revenue and
cash flow generated, usually, from a long term sales contract,
in this case for purchase of power and energy.
(b) Risk of Meeting Anticipated Power Output
The nature of the financing approach has a bearing on many
aspects of the overall study plan for Susitna. It requires, for
instance, that hydrological and energy assessments are made with
a particularly high level of confidence and that risks of short-
.fall are carefully examined.
(c) Design Risks
A high level of confidence must be achieved in the adequacy of
engineering design and in the construction costs involved in
meeting the requirements imposed. The estimates should be at a
level allowing for a relatively high likelihood of an
"under-run" on total costs including contingency provisions.
The most careful judgement must be applied to assessing likely
increases in material, labor and equipment costs to allow for
confident definition of a provision for escalation.
Construction and contracting practice must be evolved which
avoids or even eliminates over-run exposure. These and many
other aspects of the plan for development must be all the more
intently addressed to meet the need of a project of the nature
of Susitna.
(v) Design Problems
Our own experience in planning, design, and construction management
of large engineering projects in North America and particularly in
sub-arctic environments has made us acutely aware of certain design
problems which must be addressed early in the process of total
project development. These include:
(a) Seismicity
The Susitna River flows in a region of knovm high seismic
activity. Acquiring knowledge of the precise nature and extent
of this activity must necessarily be a prelude to designing
earthquake resistant project features. In addition, the
question of the effect of large reservoirs on the Susitna River
in stimulating earthquakes must be studied in some detail.
Because of the potential for catastrophe, careful and thoughtful
evaluations of seismic efforts by others appears to be
necessary.
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(b) Ice
It will be necessary to ensure that icing problems do not inter-
fere with operation of the completed hydroelectric project as
well as to determine how downstream ice conditions with the pro-
ject will differ from those without. The effect of ice shelving
in the reservoirs or ice jamming must also be addressed.
(c) Slope Stability
The nature of the project area is such that proposed reservoirs
tend to be long and narrow. Landslides, avalanches, and side
slope failures are especially to be guarded against.
(d) Siltation
It will be necessary to consider the rate at which sediment load
fills dead storage space in the upper reservoir of the system,
for the risk of losing energy production due to losses in active
reservoir storage must be eliminated. Downstream of any dams,
the effect of changes in sediment content will require evalua-
tion as well. In the latter evaluation, it will be important to
determine the extent to which relatively clearer sediment
starved summer flows will pick up additional load from the river
bed downstream.
(vi) En vi ronmenta 1 Impact
There is no doubt that the level of effort to be applied to environ-
mental studies is necessarily significant, for 1 ittle is known of
the total environmental resources in the project area and the
superposition of a giant project on the Railbelt will have social
consequences which must be determined. Certain problem areas of
note include:
(a) Complete Cycle Studies
Definitive evaluations in the environmental area frequently
require successive multi-season data acquisition efforts. In
the case of the fishery resource, for example, a five year
program is indicated. Yet, license application is scheduled
less than three years hence.
(b) Getting up to Speed
The unique nature of the environment in the project area is
best studied by those who have earlier gained familiarity with
sub-arctic regions in general and Alaska in particular. The
correct individuals must be identified lest lengthy training
periods consume valuable study time.
(c) Relationships with ADF&G
We recognize the great expertise of ADF&G in certain areas and
we believe certain environmental studies can best be
accomplished if undertaken directly by ADF&G. Even so, it is
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imperative that the necessary review, evaluation and•approval
function which ADF&G must also perform be objective. Procedures
must be worked out to preserve this objectivity.
(d) Information Exchange
As environmental data is collected and impacts are assessed, it
will be necessary to ensure that provisions are made for infor-
mation exchange and for contributions from the many interested
individuals and groups whose particular focus will be on
environmental issues.
(e) Interpretations of NEPA
A major battleground in the recent past between project pro-
ponents and opponents has been the National Environmental Policy
Act. Major projects in the past would almost certainly travel a
route of court litigation to determine compliance with the Act.
The litigation has centered upon the Environmental Impact
Statement, FERC application Exhibit W. The recent council on
Environmental Quality's Requirements for Environmental Impact
Statements should clarify the review process at the Federal
level; however, problems still exist in agency interpretation
and between the state and federal governments.
(f) Mitigation
The Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act requires that an appli-
cant coo.rdinate with Federal and State fish and game agencies to
prepare a fish and wildlife plan. The plan is included in the
license application as ExhibitS. ExhibitS will contain
essentially a mitigation plan for the adverse impacts which
project development will have upon the existing wildlife
resources in the project area. Considering the pristine setting
of the project area and migratory and habitat patterns of such
resources as caribou herds and moose, development of and agree-
ment on the mitigation plan will be a major effort in project
development. The FERC must resolve disagreements on the
adequacy of the mitigation plan prior to issuing a license. A
great deal of time can be involved in the series of correspon-
dence, meetings or formal hearings if needed to resolve the
conflict.
(g) Conflicting or Overlapping Authorities
Along these same lines are compliances with the Anadramous Fish
Act and the Endangered Species Act. As these acts are
administered by different agencies (Fish and Wildlife Service
and National Marine Fisheries Service, respectively), approval
by one does not necessarily ensure approval by the other. For
example, method of a fish transportation (if required) around
the dam may not be acceptable to both agencies. Proposed
operation of the reservoirs may also fall into conflict over
maintenance of minimum downstream release and fluctuating
release volumes.
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{h) Historic Preservation Concerns
Exhibit V of the license application requires the applicant to
show consultation with the Advisory Council on Historic
Preservation and the State Historic Preservation Officer'to
assure that no historic or cultural sites will be adversely
affected. Numerous problems could be associated with this
aspect should such sites be uncovered.
(vii) Licensing
Prior to constructing the Susitna Hydropower Project, extensive
coordination and consensus agreements must take place between the
project developer and numerous Federal government agencies. Several
permitting processes will need to executed. However, the focal point
of the efforts will most probably be the preparation and action
relative to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission {FERC) license
application. The license would allow the applicant to construct and
eventually operate the proposed facility for a period of up to 50
years. The licensing process is fairly complex as noted by the fact
that the current average major license review time is approximately
seven years from time of application to approval.
(a) Complexity of Review Process
The reason for the length of time and complexity of review lies
in the fact that the FERC and the reviewing agencies have a
number of requirements under existing statutes which must be
satisfied prior to taking action upon an application. Addi-
tionally, the statutes, under certain circumstances, provide
conflicting authorities between review agencies and the FERC.
(b) Intervenors
Compounding the review difficulty is the special status of
intervenors in the process. The FERC's authorization laws and
administrative practice give enormous powers to the project
intervenor to delay the process with a series of hearings on
legal questions pertaining to project licensing. Essentially,
the burden of proof of compliance with the listed statues will
fall upon the developer.
(c) Land Rights Issues
Even at this stage of project formulation, several pitfalls
within the licensing process can be foreseen. Land rights for
construction and access to the project could be a problem,
particularly with the complexity of the Alaska native land
rights, and use of federal lands under the Federal Land Policy
and Management Act. At this time, the U. S. Departments of
Interior and Agriculture are developing regulations for
administering the Act. As the regulations will be relatively
new during planning and development of the Susitna project,
administrative and legal problems associated in compliance with
the Act can be expected.
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(d) Water Resource Development Plan
Section lO(a) of the Federal Power Act requires that the project
be best adapted to a comprehensive water resource development
plan for the·project area. In the case of the Susitna project,
compliance will mean that the need for the project and all ·
alternatives to the project have been carefully studied to
determine that this development is indeed in the best interests
of the public.
(e) New Regulations
We have determined that FERC will shortly issue new proposed
draft regulations for licensing a major hydroelectric project.
It will be necessary to review new procedures and respond to
required changes while the planned study is in progress.
(viii) Problems in Public Participation
There is a distinct difference between the concepts of public infor-
mation and public participation. The former is designed to let the
public know what is happening (sometimes, unfortunately, to let the
public know only what the planner wants it to think is happening).
The latter not only includes public information as a subset, but also
provides a means for the public to become involved in and influence
the course of work. For an effort as large as the Susitna Hydro-
electric Project and with impacts extending effectively into
perpetuity,public participation--including accurate public informa-
tion--is an imperative. The attendant problems are significant:
(a) Conflicting Interests.
Taken alone, the motivations and objectives of individuals and
organizations who have been involved to date on the Susitna
Project are generally sincere and relatively easily understood.
Considered collectively, however, they represent clear con-
flicts. It follows that it will be virtually impossible to
satisfy every desire. Problems will almost certainly arise in
determining what heirarchy of concerns is to be established.
How will federal interests in accelerated development of energy
resources be reconciled with those of citizens who would
preserve the Alaskan quality of life? Recreational interests in
preserving a natural river with those of consumers who seek ways
and .means to stabilize the cost of electric energy? The follow-
ing list of special interests is not exhaustive:
Utility interests, including concerns about ability to meet
energy demands, prospects for recovery of capital
investments, profits for investors.
Alaskan native groups, particularly those which have selected
lands in the Susitna River Basin.
Fisheries industries whose concerns about impacts on future
catch, particularly of anadromous fish, have not yet been
fully addressed.
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Downstream res_i dents concerned especially about changes the
Susitna Project will impose upon their way of life.
Consumers of electric power in the Southcentral Rail belt.
Marketers of alternative energy resources.
A2-8
Conservationists who perceive the Susitna Project as likely to
spur unwanted growth.
Industrial and commercial interests who perceive stabilization of
energy costs as important to future progress.
Unemployed workers interested in opportunities ar1s1ng directly or
indirectly from construction of dams on the Susitna.
Agencies charged with maintenance and preservation of Alaskan
wildlife, including in particular the Alaska Department of Fish
and Game and the Federal Fish and Wildlife Department.
Railbelt residents who seek assurances that a Susitna Project will
neither induce earthquakes nor fail catastrophically if one does
occur.
--And others.
(b) Impacts on Schedules
A proper public participation program necessarily requires that
provisions be made to permit time for review and comment at various
points as the study develops. Accommodating review time require-
ments, particularly in cases where proceeding on a new task depends
upon a favorable decision having been made on results of the previous
task, can serve to delay scheduled completions.
(c) Changing to Accommodate the Public Interest
True public participation requires not only that the public be
informed and that they be allowed to offer comment, but also that
their legitimate inputs be incorporated into the work. Thus,
provisions must be made to properly address new issues as they arise
and to take action where required. It is almost inevitable that an
effective public involvement program will require that the plan of
study be dynamic. An increased risk that costs will be incurred and
scheduled completion times will be extended as new courses of action
are pursued must be regarded as a problem area.
(d) Communications in Alaska
The large area over which power would be distributed, relatively
undeveloped road nets, and remoteness of many of the areas to be
affected by the Susitna Project combine to create unusual pressures
on effective communications. It follows that any proposed public
participation program must be designed to afford reasonable
involvement opportunities even for those who have no practical means
to attend meetings or make regular visits to information centers in
lar e metro olitan areas.
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A2-9
(ix) Control and Coordination
We have assembled a team whose individual corporate members bring
strong special skills to bear upon satisfaction of the various
project objectives. The danger associated with such an assemblage is
that control and coordination problems increase in complexity as a
result. It becomes important then, that early steps be taken and
procedures established so that the synergism promised by putting the
team together is not lost through failures in management. Two areas
in particular are worthy of consideration:
(a) Planning, Control and Management of the Study Itself
Provisions must be made to avoid costly redundant efforts as
well as to ensure that each and every task and action is
budgeted for and accomplished.
(b) Planning the Eventual Construction Program
The matter of timely and efficient constructability of a
proposed major project can be an extremely costly problem area
if it is not attended to throughout the planning and design
process.
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A.2.2 -Proposed Approach to Solution of Problems
(i) Introduction
A2-10
Given the size-and complexity of the proposed project, it should come
as no surprise that the problem areas noted above and others as well
demand carefully de vel oped, often innovative, solutions. In general
we believe a certain pervasive discipline must be a part of our
approach to the project as a whole and to each of the necessary tasks
and subtasks individually.
Briefly stated, we recognize a series of steps as virtually
universally applicable:
(1) Define the problem
{2) Establish objectives
{3) Describe the work necessary for achieving the objectives at
mini mum cost
(4) Assign responsibility to the appropriate team or subteam
1 eaders
{5) Ensure each leader has sufficient qualified persons to do the
work
{6) Make the necessary physical resources and logistic support
avail ab 1 e
(7) Schedule the activities to ensure resource commitments and
overall project schedule are appropriate
{8) Collect the necessary data
{9) Evaluate the data
{10) Draw conclusions
{11) Provide expert review
(12) Define new problems
{13) Establish flexible procedures to permit rescheduling and new
resource commitments as necessary when new problems or scope
changes arise.
While·these steps will apply in general, certain specific comments as
regards problems identified in paragraph A.1.1 above are noted in
succeeding subparagraphs below.
(ii) Optimal Development
(a) Load Forecast Accuracy
The business of predicting the future inevitably involves vary-
ing degrees of uncertainty. We plan to reduce this uncertainty
to an acceptable level through the use of proven analytical
econometric models developed in the State at the University of
Alaska precisely to support the type of predictive efforts
required. WCC (Alaska) will lead this work, supported by
Professors T. L. Husky and 0. S. Go 1 dsmith. We will estab 1 ish a
range of forecasts together with assumptions associated with
their development. This approach will, of course, allow us to
test the implications of various growth scenarios on project
viability and timing, as well as permit evaluation of reasonable
a 1 ternat i ves.
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(b) Alternatives to Susitna Development
Definition of reasonable alternatives demands that a marriage of
appropriate technical knowledge of each alternative to intimate
knowledge of Alaska be accompli shed. Acres has strong hydro-
electric experience as well as a large thermal power development
group. WCC (Alaska) furnishes capabilities in analysis of
non-hydro alternatives as well as an Alaskan presence. Our
intention is to study the widest possible range of alternatives
and to test various combinations which might satisfy load
forecasts. This testing process will be facilitated through the
use of sophisticated computer models which we have used in prior
alternative studies of major hydroelectric projects.
(c) Alternatives for Development of the Susitna River
While much time, effort and thought has gone into the earlier
Corps of Engineers studies, we will nonetheless take a fresh
look, at possible alternative ways of developing the Susitna
Basin. These studies will include, for example, consideration
of a long power tunnel extending downstream from the Watana
site. Our project team includes a number of personnel who are
skilled in the art of hydroelectric planning and we have
included a Concept Planning team within our Feasibility Studies
task force.
(iii) Data Acguistion
We recognize the requirement for large field investigating teams. It
follows that proper field support facilities will be necessary. Our
logistics plan at Section A4 provides details in that regard. The
matter of equipment demands in Alaska is a serious one. Not only
must the proper type of drilling, measuring, instrumenting and
sampling devices be available when and as needed, but also they must
in many cases have been modified to permit use in remote sub-arctic
regions. R&M is the only organization of its kind in Alaska. R&M's
special surveying and drilling equipment and extensive Alaskan
experience contributes much to our confidence in our ability to
complete the proposed work on time and on schedule. In addition,
most other principal investigators have had extensive experience in
sub-arctic environments and all have made preliminary arrangements
for equipment needs. Coordination will be facilitated through the
establishment of an Alaskan project office headed up by a senior
Acres _engineer who has himself 1 ed similar efforts in the past for
major projects in Canada.
(iv) Financial Risk
We have chosen the investment banking firm of Salomon Brothers whose
strong experience in tax-exempt bonding matters wi 11 be extremely
important in preparation of plans for successful project financing.
Mr. J. G. Warnock's own successful experience as the leader of the
bond documentation team on the Churchill Falls project provides an
important strength on the Acres team. The study effort for
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A2-12
financial planning will be shared equally by Salomon Brothers and
Acres. In addition, we have planned an extensive risk analysis
program for ensuring that we identify and minimize various financial
and design risks. Certain special considerations pertain:
(a) Multidisciplinary Involvement
It will be clear that to deal adequately with the matter of
financial risk it has to be considered from very many viewpoints
inevitably involving a multidisciplinary approach.
Traditionally, engineers alone were engaged in the early
planning and consideration of hydroelectric power sites with
other interests-such as financial, insurance, labor relations,
etc. -joining in 1 ater when feasibility had all but been
established; Such a procedure was quite practicable when hydro-
electric sites clearly justified development on their own merit,
economics were not in question, and environmental constraint
unheard of. Nowadays, despite rapid escalating costs of fuel
generated power alternatives, hydroelectric power generation is
often marginal in power supply economics and development faces
constant uncertainty as to whether any installation could be
justified at all in the face of environmental constraint and
objections.
Into this aura of uncertainty major projects such as Susitna are
being launched. It is clear that only the highest standard of
management and dedication to an ultimate belief in proper
development of renewable resources will lead such a project to
implementation. Methods and approaches are, however, available
and well tested which will assist the process markedly. Basic
to the successful approach is a broad interdisciplinary
involvement from the start. Engineers must be effectively
backed up by~eamlof financial specialists, economic analysts,
environmentalists, insurance experts, construction managers,
labor relations men, etc. No longer is it practical for a
single engineering discipline to carry a project from initial
concept to commitment to construction in a program of relatively
isolated concentration on the physical aspects of the site.
We advocate, therefore, a most carefully planned close involve-
ment of the engineering team with all the other disciplines and
specialists which, when integrated to a sum of effort over the
preliminary phases of a project, can build the basic confidence
which overcomes the apparent and growing constraints. Funda-
mental to the approach we recommend, is a close integration of
engineering, financial and insurance speciality input from the
start. -----
(b) Technical/Economic Relationships to Power Contract Negotiations
Fundamental to the success of any plan to develop the Susitna
project is the focus of contract for the sa 1 e of energy and
capacity from the completed plant. In order to provide the
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A2-13
adequate debt service a contractual arrangement is necessary
which calls for "take or pay" obligations on the part of the
energy purchases. This and other basic elements of the power
contract can have a profound effect on the viability of the
project.
It might be suggested that this is not an engineering problem
but one for the marketing/utility negotiation team alone. But
not necessarily so; it is the engineer who can contribute vital
knowledge to the assessment of the reliability of energy supply
over the years of the contract. He also has to balance the
values of various capacity factors for the planned plant. He
has to assess, furthermore, the changing role that may be
attributed to the facilitation as time passes into the future.
It is necessary to view power system planning on a "dynamic
basis."
Economists play their succinct role too. Much of the forecast-
ing of likely market conditions falls to their judgement. They
have to assess likely future variations in fuel and energy
aspects of alternative generation. Cost escalation on construc-
tion has a heavy bearing on a hydroelectric project and is
amenable to careful judgement by economic specialists •
(c) Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning
In order to protect the project capital structure, allowances
have "to be made for contingencies, provisions for escalation in
costs and for a completion guarantee. The first two of these
items are basic elements of the capital cost budget while the
third is usually dealt with as a standby financing arrangement.
In arriving at prudent allowances for contingencies on very
major projects, it is becoming increasingly desirable to deter-
mine these as a result of a carefully conducted risk analysis.
Modern methods are available, which have been adequately tested
on large undertakings, to determine the likely confidence level
of estimates both of costs and schedule (which itself has cost
implications).
The approach planned for Susitna would employ up-to-date tech-
niques of risk assessment and contingency planning which on the
one hand would permit the reduction to a minimum of "real money"
over-run allowances and employ to the maximum extent possible
measures to mitigate risk.
The study contributes substantially to the determination of the
"residual risk," which, in a project of the nature of Susitna,
remains to be covered by insurance or by a conscious acceptance
by the owner that it will be covered in some other way should
adverse circumstances prevail. The capacity of the internation-
al insurance market method to assume greater levels of insurance
has improved as the size of major projects has increased. The
type of approach recommended is intended to lead to the most
favorable practicable basis for insurance provisions.
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(v) Design Problems
Special design problems demand special attention, for time and effort
devoted to their resolution prior to construction pay handsome
dividends in terms of correction costs avoided later and in terms, as
well, of securing the necessary degree of confidence on the part of
investors, environmental interests, State authorities, and the public
in general.
(a) Seismicity
We have noted earlier the importance of seismicity studies and
of designing earthquake resistant structures. So important do
we regard this area that we have planned for exhaustive investi-
gations supported by modern sophisticated instrumentation.
Acres has dealt with seismicity issues with great success in the
past on a number of major hydroelectric and other power pro-
jects. WCC (California) will conduct the seismicity studies for
the Susitna Project, with careful review provided by the Acres
team. While the WCC expertise in this area is unquestionable,
we have been particularly careful to provide the means and the
resources to seek confirmation by objective learned experts
whose duties will be conducted quite apart from the Acres team.
In accordance with APA's expressed desires for a level of effort
of $1 ·million to be applied to an external seismicity investiga-
tion, we have chosen an approach which calls upon a proposed
external board (or boards} to invest that sum in those confirma-
tory or additional studies which they regard as essential to
rendering an expert opinion on how well our own designs are
responsive to earthquake concerns.
(b) Ice
Ice studies are provided for in the study program to assess the
current icing conditions found naturally in the Susitna basin
without the project. Field investigations and surveys will also
prod~ce vital information, including appropriate in-stream
hydrographic surveys and flood plane cross-sections downstream
of the proposed dam sites. As design concepts are evaluated, we
will draw upon the expertise of members of the Acres team who
have countered operational icing problems on past projects. In
this regard, for example, our mechanical engineering staff will
pay particular attention to the possibility that frazzile ice
may interfere with generation flows. A separate Ice Studies
team has also been included within our Feasibility Studies
organization. The nature and extent of the potential for ice
jamming and ice shelving in the reservoirs will be detailed and
close coordination will be maintained with those involved in
environmental studies to ensure that impacts of ice formations
on wildlife migration and survival are understood.
A representative 1 ist of major projects undertaken by Acres in
northern and sub-Arctic regions of North America is presented in
Section C6, Volume II of Part C of this POS.
(c) Slope Stability
Field investigations by R&M will provide a source of data for
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A2-15
evaluating slope stability. The extent of permafrost in the dam
and reservoir areas and the resulting potential for slope
instability will be carefully investigated by the Project Team.
The combined expertise of R&M and Acres will be directed toward
the design of countermeasures as appropriate and risk studies
will consider the consequences of unanticipated slope failures
·and snow slides.
(d) Siltation
Earlier Corps of Engineers studies have indicated that the
deposition of sediment in the Watana reservoir will be entirely
in the dead storage area throughout the proposed operating
period for the project. We will conduct necessary studies to
confirm those earlier findings and to better determine the
expected rate of siltation. Changes in silt load patterns
downstream of the dams will also be examined from both
environmental and water quality standpoints.
(vi) Environmental Impact
Our overall approach to a proposed extensive environmental program
relies upon the coordination of a series of individual studies
conducted by individuals whose entire professional careers have been
devoted to particular subject areas. A number of consultants,
several with considerable sub-arctic and/or Alaskan experience in
pertinent areas of study, will participate in the work. The
.coordination effort will be accomplished primarily byTES whose own
staff will augment the consultants' efforts. Certain specific
matters highlighted above as problems will be resolved as follows:
(a) Complete Cycle Studies
The comprehensive program recommended by ADF&G is well conceived
and is consistent with our own evaluations of the level of
effort needed in important fish and game studies. The fact that
the program extends beyond the proposed point for license
application need not represent a deterrent, for our discussions
with Mr. Ronald Corso of FERC have indicated that, provided the
application itself describes what continuing studies will be
conducted, it can be filed before they are completed.
(b) Getting up to Speed
Selection of consultants and, in appropriate areas of study, of
ADF&G to perform base-line data acquistion work has been
accomplished based on the criterion that each of the principal
investigators must have experience in sub-arctic environments,
preferably in Alaska.
(c) Relationships with ADF&G
Our approach to the issue of ensuring the ADF&G maintains its
proper status as an objective reviewing and approving authority
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A2-16
while concurrently undertaking investigatory tasks involves a
unique concept. Each of the field studies and reports to be
produced by ADF&G will be produced for and funded directly by
the Power Authority. None of our organization charts or
concepts includes ADF&G as a subsidiary or subcontractor to
Acres. ADF&G's involvement is assumed to occur in accordance
with the following scenario:
(1) Base-line studies will be performed by ADF&G where
appropriate, the data being supplied to TES and its
consultants
(2) TES and its consultants develop the environmental
assessment
(3) ADF&G reviews and comments upon TES work which is reviewed
and appropriately modified.
(4) Mitigatory measures are proposed by TES (in some cases
relying on data furnished to APA by ADF&G).
(5) ADF&G reviews proposed mitigation plans and offers
comments.
(6) TES updates earlier submission
(7) ADF&G approves
This procedure will be followed as necessary throughout the
period prior to FERC license approval.
(d) Information Exchange
Our approach to involvement of environmental interests external
to the Acres team includes a series of eight workshops, each one
of which will be partially or fully devoted to environmental
matters. Six of the workshops are scheduled in advance and two
are funded but not scheduled to permit flexibility in response
to issues of opportunity.
(e) Intepretations of NEPA
We will maintain our close review of recent CEQ actions as well
as our monitorship of FERC license processing. We intend as
well, through our Alaska Project Office, to maintain continuous
close liaison with appropriate State agencies. State agencies
will be invited to participate as well in workshop sessions.
(f) Mitigation
The scenario for seeking State approval for mitigation measures
has been summarized in subparagraph (c) above. It is our inten-
tion to resolve as many of the mitigation issues as possible
prior to license application.
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A2-17
(g) Conflicting or Overlapping Authorities
By seeking the involvement of Federal and State agencies
throughout the study period and especially in workshop sessions,
we seek to minimize conflicts.
(h) Historic Preservation Concerns
We will schedule necessary consultations on historic preserva-
tion matters with appropriate federal and state agencies. Our
plans to ensure archeological reconnaissance prior to site
disturbance will also contribute to our satisfaction of problems
in this area.
(vii) Licensing
Paragraph A.2.1 identified numerous snags which can occur in obtain-
ing an FERC license. Although the list touches upon the problems
which appear applicable to Susitna, others can arise during the
1 engthy process.
Our approach to the licensing issue calls for the establishment of a
small team whose entire efforts will be devoted to coordinating the
preparation of the total application as well as to maintaining
frequent contact with FERC. Whereas individual exhibits will be
generally prepared as outputs of other tasks, this focal point for
licensing work will provide the means to minimize later interventions
by anticipating sensitive issues in advance. Of particular
importance will be the impact of new draft regulations when they are
published. The early indications are that some cost savings may
accrue as a result of simplifications in procedures. Even so, the
Plan of Study is necessarily based on satisfaction of current
regulations. We will propose changes at a later date if
appropriate.
Particularly important in the licensing of a large project such as
Susitna is the effective scheduling of preparatory activities. Plate
A.2.1 indicates our proposed scheduling of all activities which we
propose to undertaken prior to submission of the license application,
and afterwards. The essential philosophy of our proposed approach is
to.involve the FERC as soon as possible and to initiate contacts with
all concerned local, state and Federal agencies and individuals well
in advance of the submission. Yet the submission must respond
adequately to the requirements laid down by the FERC. We
confidently project a 30 month period to fully complete the data
acquisition requirements for submission of a compliant license
application to the FERC. WE base these projections on our experience
and discussions with FERC staff. License activities are discussed in
detail in Task 10, Section A5 of this POS.
(viii) Public Participation
The overall objectives of the public participation program are
twofold: to keep the public fully informed and to provide a means
whereby the public can influence the work. These objectives will be
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A2-18
satisfied in general by conducting a thorough and enthusiastic public
information program which includes multi-media exposure, scheduled
events, resources set aside to capitalize on unforesee·n information
opportunities, and a total commitment to establishment of a contin-
uously available and accessible information office; and the provision
for dynamic planning. It is this latter facet of the public
participation program which distinguishes it from more conventional
approaches. Simply stated, we have built into the study process a
provision for incorporating newly identified actions as well as
independent review procedures. Our plan of study is an excellent
blueprint for licensing. Public input and the sage advice of
independent panels of experts cannot help but improve the plan--and
thus, the study--as the work proceeds. Our specific approach to
resolution of previously identified problems is as follows:
(a) Conflicting Interests
A series of milestones, including all public meetings and
workshops, will become the triggers for preparation of action
lists. Each substantive comment or concern will be translated
into a specific action or will be recommended for rejection by
the project manager. Proposed actions with significant impacts
on time, schedule, or concept will be referred to APA for
specific approval. Other actions of lesser apparent con-
sequences will be routinely processed and undertaken, with APA
kept fully informed. Those comments and concerns which are
recommended for rejection will be referred for consideration
(along with reasons for recommending rejection) to APA and to
the appropriate external review board. (Note that both engi-
neering and environmental review boards have been proposed.)
The proposed actions as well as recommended rejections will
represent the study team's best efforts to resolve conflicting
interests and concerns. Even so, there is simple no reasonable
way to ensure that all publicly expressed desires will be
satisfied. Creation of an action list will provide the vehicle
so that every concern is at least explicitly considered and
deliberations of external review boards will provide further
recourse for those who disagree with the position taken by the
project manager.
(b) Impacts on Schedule
The extensive public participation program described in detail
in Task 12 (Section AS) and illustrated at plates in that
section has been designed to permit maximum public review and
comment activities without disrupting the progress of the study.
By publishing monthly progress reports, by conducting frequent
workshops open to the public, and by allowing ample review
periods for important reports prior to public meetings, we
believe that it will be possible to maintain the agreed schedule
and ensure maximum public participation.
(3) Changing to Accommodate the Public Interest
Whereas it is both possible and proper to plan for review
periods under the assumption that the proposed plan of study
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A2-19
will proceed as originally prepared, there is simply no way to
predict with certainty the extent to which actions introduced
through the public participation program will influence
schedules and costs. To minimize problems which may occur in
this area, we have sought to involve the public immediately upon
commencement of the study effort and to establish continuous
coordination procedures for various interested agencies, with
particular attention to those charged by statute with protection
of environmental resources and those to be involved in
distribution and sale of electric power. Flexibility has been
built into the plan of study to allow for accommodating a
reasonable number of changes to be introduced through the public
involvement program.
(4) Communications in Alaska
In recognition of the extensive area which would be served by
the proposed project, provisions have been made in the public
participation program to allow for broad information coverage as
well as the widest possible involvement. Each r.egul arly
scheduled public meeting is actually a set of three meetings to
be held in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Talkeetna. A total of
eight workshops, each one of which may involve separate sessions
with utilities, regulatory agencies, and environmental interest
organizations, are planned. Locations for workshops will be
chosen with a view toward maximizing public exposure. Indeed,
the public participation plan is founded on the principle of
taking aggressive action to seek public involvement rather than
passive tolerance of public interests. No matter when or where
meetings are scheduled, though, it is inevitable that some
interested individuals will simply be unable to attend. We will
have broad information coverage and our proposed information
office will receive comments and suggestions at any time during
the course of the study. Actions developed as a result of these
latter inputs will be treated in a fashion similar to those
introduced during or incident to formal meetings and workshops.
(ix) Control and Coordination
A number of approaches to the development of a successful large-
project management plan have been tried in the past. We believe,
from this experience, that sponsors of large projects are beginning
to recognize the importance of first developing a program planning
guide for the management of these projects.
The tendency in the past has been to inundate a project with a
relatively large number of planners and managers. There is nothing
wrong with 1 arge numbers of managers and planners, when they are
needed, but we believe that the larger and more complex a project,
the more important it becomes to have a small group generating the
plan. Our experience on large projects has revealed that a rela-
tively small number of planners actually prepare the specifications
for the plan. That is, during a preliminary planning phase, they
should develop in considerable detail the specific elements that the
project manager or construction management contractor or the
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A2-20
management organization are to prepare during the planning period.
Whether a ·large project is located in an area that lacks local
services and therefore depends upon outside support, or in an area
with an existing, well-developed service base, an extensive planning
effort is required to handle the great number of parallel and
similar organization concepts required to effectively manage the
project. We are prepared to include such a planning effort as a
product of the POS.
(a) Planning, Control and Management of the POS
Clearly, the POS, with funds in excess of $8 million already
allocated and an eventual expenditure of over $20 million,
qualifies as a large project and dictates the need for a more
than casual approach to the planning and control. A
business-oriented approach will be required to deliver, cost
effectively, the final products of the POS. Effective
"front-end" planning and the early involvement of the project
management team is a key determinant of the project's success.
Cost/schedule/financial control development and the preparation
of corporate/administrative policies and procedures must
parallel and be a part of front end planning and design.
Effective implementation of the controls and procedures and the
participation, acceptance and commitment to follow through to
project completion must be incorporated into the program. We
are committed to provide these services through the assignment
of a relatively small group of well-qualified individuals to
the POS team. In particular, the extensive Alaskan experience
in large project management offered by FMA will be vital
elements in our planning, control and management efforts.
The proposed schedule for undertaking this POS is presented in
Plate A2.1.
(b) Planning the Eventual Construction Program
Certainly the multi-billion dollar construction phase of the
Susitna hydropower project qualifies as a "giant" project and
comes complete with the myriad of problems associated with
"giant" projects. In this respect, the ability of the POS team
to effectively plan this monumental project may prove to be the
most important product of the the POS. The Acres/Moolin team
provides a unique combination of talent and concepts to support
this planning effort.
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A2-21
A.2.3 -Proposed Program
The effective resolution of the problems to be dealt with in meeting the
overall study objectives require the development of a carefully integrated
program of study, design and exploration. The study will be undertaken in a
series of interrelated and interdependent tasks as follows:
Task 1 -Power Studies
Task 2 -Surveys and Site Facilities
Task 3 -Hydrology
Task 4 -Seismic Studies ,
Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration
Task 6 -Design Development
Task 7 -Environmental Studies
Task 8 -Transmission
Task 9 -Cost Estimates and Schedules
Task 10 -Licensing
Task 11 -Marketing and Finance
Task 12 -Public Participation
Task 13 -Administration
Each of these tasks has been broken down into a manageable number of
subtasks (See Section A5). The level of effort and timing allows for
progressive determination of project feasibility with minimum expenditure of
funds.
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A2-22
A.2.4 -Potential Difficulties and Anticipated Methods of Handling
Several of the products that are developed as a part of Task 13--Program
Administration are going to be the basic documents that will implement the
POS. To stress how important they are would be to belabor the obvious;
these products establish the basic course for the project and will be used
to enunciate strategy and policy desisions throughout the POS. The key to
the effectiveness of these programs is the early implementation and
acceptance by all members of the project team.
It is extremely important that the interface and responsibilities of each of
the subcontractors be spelled out in excruciating detail. This is best done
by listing the numerous functions that have to be performed and then making
sure that each of these functions have been assigned to a specific team.
This sounds simple, but it requires a considerable effort and an in-depth
understanding of the scope of work to tabulate all the required functions.
Working with government agencies requires some special precautions. There
is a tendency, when submitting plans of operations, to propose exagerated
plans or solutions to make them sound as good as possible. These plans must
be scrutinized, before submission, for reasonableness and cost
effectiveness, to ensure that conditions that cannot later be tolerated are
not proposed. It is equally important that the government agencies also
participate in the preparation and review of such plans so that constraints
may be identified and planned for.
The subject of constraints is of particular importance to the planning and
estimating phases of the project. Constraints, if adequately understood in
the early stages, can be planned around. Constraints, if they come up after
the start of construction, result in breaks in cadence, work stoppages, poor
utilization of equipment and manpower and direct impacts to cost and
schedule. Constraints can appear in the form of government mandates,
environmental/climatic conditions, design changes necessitated by the
discovery of new data as construction proceeds and other causes. Regardless
of their cause, every effort must be made during the planning stages to
identify constraints by working directly with government and other agencies
and convincing these agencies to participate in, accept and commit them-
selves to this effort. In addition, the cost and benefits of constraints
must be developed, as the constraints are being identified, to allow APA and
government officials to fully assess the impacts involved.
There must also be a close relationship between the planning and the obtain-
ing of permits from government agencies. Included in the Project Planning
Guide should be a s~hedule of submissions that identify what permits are
required at what point in time and when each submission will be made. This
will go a long way towards easing the acquisition of the myriad of permits
required.
The foregoing remarks are necessarily general in nature. Sections A4
through A6 of·the POS describe in some detail the potential difficulties
foreseen at this time in specific areas of the study and the proposed
methods of overcoming them.
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TASK
1-13
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
II
12
13
DESCRIPTION
MILESTONES
POWER STUDIES
SURVEYS a SITE FACILITIES
HYDROLOGY
SEISMIC STUDIES
GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATION
DESIGN DEVELOPMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
TRANSMISSION
COST ESTIMATES a SCHEDULES
LICENSING
MARKETING a FINANCING
PUBLIC PARTICIPATION {4)
ADMINISTRATION
1980 1981 . 1982 1983 1984 1985
J F M A M J JASON D J F M A M J J A s 0 N D J F M A M J J A S jo N D JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND JFM AMJ JAS OND
COMMENCE
STUDY
I LOAD FORECAST ~
I I
CAMPS AIRSTRIP
I SUSITNA BASIN
GO/ NO-GO
ALTERNATIVES
DEVELOPMENT
SELECTION
DAM
SELECTION
FEASIBILITY
a LICENSE
SUBMISSION
L1 CENSE (I) BONDS
SELECT ACCESS ROUTE j ROAD PERMITST ROAD CONSTRUCTION CONTINUED CAMP OPERATION
~-,..... .......... 1_.,....1 ............................................ -~-...-... ~ ..... -...-.. .............. ~-.~--·~~~~--~··~--··--·~--1-rr-,-~···--~· ~~---CONTINUOUS CAMP OPERATION +--t--+--t---t--+----t--ll-... 1 J. I
DATA REVIEW I I ., I I INSTALLATIONS DATA PROCESSING CONTINUED MEASUREMENT I PROCESSING _,...,..,..-r-r-n~~~~~~~~~~-r-r-,-,r-;---·~-~ -rt,-l-r1-ri1-t-··--~--, J 1 coNTINuous PROCESSING a STUDIES 1 J
I • I MONITORING REFINED ,1,
DATA REVIEW PRELIMINARY EVALUATION SYSTEM I f EVALUATION CONSULTIN_<J.t CONTINUED MEASUREMENT I PROCESSING
!--+DAT-A ,.._....,... .............. 1_1-!1 .....,j__,......_W .. INT-ER ...... I .......... s ... UMM .. ER ............................... ~··~--••• -~••1_·-rr-,-rr~-~~--•••--••
REVIEW JLAN ~ PROGRAM REPORT. PR?GRA"t PLANt PROGRAM R~PJT PJAN t CONTINUED EXPLORATION (31
I --··--·~~~,-rt-,-rr ----·~~--···
OEVELdPMENT fELLTilN DAl SELECTION t ~EASIBILITY ,PROJECT DESIGNS / SPECIFICATIONS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ....... ~-~~~~--~--·~-J1-~~~-~f-,-t·--·---~· I J I .I l I ,1M PACT I EXHIBIT E EXHIBIT E
P[ANNING T PERFORM FIELD STUDIES ANALYSIS EXHIBIT E SUPPLEMENT~ SUPPLEMENT t 1-,-.,...~~--~~ ......... -..-.. ... -+-................. ..,.. .... +-+--+-.,_-f-~-1-..-.,...~--•• ---~-i ,.. t---···--p. -~--I I I PRELIMI~ARY
CORRIDOR SELECTION RuUTE SELECTION DESIGN ., f DESIGNS/ SPECIFICATIONS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .... ~~-..-..~~ ·~--~··---··~-~r~-rt--···--···~--·
sdHEDULE a ' I I I
DATA REVIEW ·
DATA ESTIMATES UPDATES AS REQUIRED
I ,...-.!._.. ........... ~ ......... ~-. ........ ~--·~--···-~-t,-1-ri-~·~---··---·
PRELl MINARY I J I, I _l I I DATA '*--..-+--+-CONTINUED DATA AQUISITION ~ (EXHIBITS RESPONSES TO FERC ~ ................ llllf·----~--~ -~-.. r,. -~ ··--~--.. --~ -~~---·~--~iH~.,-~T ~-r t-.... -~--~ .. --
TAX EX1EMP~loN1 a ALTERNATIVES susiTNA DRAFT BOND INP~T .fo I I
MARKET ISSUES RISK ANALYSIS RISK ANALYSIS DOCUMENTATION LICENSE BOND OFFERING SUPPORT
BbAR~ ::L·~--~·~--ttl-rt1-•• --~~--~~~-
p'4 Js t I w"t l,. "' f?'T 1 NG f s lst "f"t P'"i REVIEw coNn N u ED PROGRAM ~llllllllj ...................... _.. ............................... ._~~..-...-. ......... ~~.-... .... -i--·~--.. ~-ri-1-'-·"--·-··---·=-
DEVELOP I _I I .I I
PR0
1
CEDURE!: ~~-+--APPLY PROCEDURES+--+-.....-CONTINUED AS REQUIRED ~-a~-+e--+--t-..._._,_....,. ..... .._.~+-~~-..-......-.......... ,.... ........................... ~ .... ~-~~~~·~---T-1-r T 1-:t -~ -~--.• --~~~~··--
LEGEND: REPRESENTS SUBTASK COMPLETION
NOTES: {I) TENTATIVE BASED ON COMPLETION OF ENVIRON MENTAL STUDIES AND PLANS FOR INVESTIGATION
(2) ACCESS TRACK CONSTRUCTION IS ASSUMED TO COMMENCE IN 1982 FOR PURPOSES OF "FAST-TRACK" PROJECT COMPLETION ONLY.
COSTS ARE INCLUDED IN ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN AFTER SUBMISSION OF LICENSE APPLICATION.
(3) GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATION IS ASSUMED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1988 FOR PURPOSES OF "FAST-TRACK" COMPLETION.
COSTS ARE INCLUDED IN ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN AFTER SUBMISSION OF LICENSE APPLICATION .
. (4) PM = PUBLIC MEETING i WS =WORKSHOP
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE A2.1: SUMMARY SCHEDULE
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A3-1
SECTION A.3 -BUDGET SUMMARY
Summaries of estimated study costs for periods through submission of the
FERC license application (June 30, 1982) and subsequently through receipt
of license (tentatively estimated as January 1985) are presented in Tables
A.3.1 through A. 3.3. These summaries are presented by Task and quarter.
All costs are in 1979 dollars, effective through the first quarter of 1980,
with escalation beyond that date assumed at a rate of 8 percent per annum.
Subtotals for Tasks 1 through 10 are separated out since these are con-
sidered to correspond most closely with the estimates presented in the
Corps of Engineers POS. Additional expenditures for the proposed project
financing activities (Task 11) and public participation program (Task 12)
are substantially different in concept from anything included in the Corps
POS. The estimated costs of these activities have therefore been shown as
separate items. Task 13, Administration, may also be regarded as essen-
tially an indirect cost to the project for the Acres team office in Alaska.
This is also shown separately together with other costs stipulated by APA
as shown.
It must be emphasized that costs incurred after submission of the license
application are based on design development of the Watana site only in this
period, and are necessarily approximate at this time. The level of
engineering to be performed prior to award of the license will depend
largely on the optimum method of contract packaging selected during
feasibility studies, the scheduling of the construction contracts and the
problems identified during the feasibility study. Nevertheless, the costs
are representative of a scenario which in our judgement will result in
accomplishing the objectives of the study (i.e., to license, finance and
commence the construction of the project at the earliest feasible date) at
minimum risk to the State of Alaska.
~ l A3-2
] TABLE A.3.1 -·BUDGET SUMMARY -PRE-LICENSE APPLICATION STUDIES (1979)
January 1, 198(J to June 30, 1982
R&M Terrestrial
J Consul-Woodward -Clyde Env i ronmenta I CIRI External
Acres American tants Consultants Services FMA H&N ADF&G Consultants
Extern a I
Task Task Head Head Head Review Task Cumulative
~l No. Name Off ice Alaska A I aska Office Alaska Office Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Other Alaska ·Panel Totals Totals
J
Power StudIes 57,000 15,000 280,000 27,500 27,500 407,000
~} 2 Surveys & (1)
Site Fac iII ties 63,000 47,500 1,005,909 510,000 3,353,400 4,979,800
'l 3 Hydrology 193,200 20,000 1,354, 900 17,500 1,585,600
4 Seismic Studies 40,000 18,000 761,000 320,000 35,000 1,174,000
J 5 Geotechnical
Exploration 257,000 665,000 2,698,500 3,620,500
6 Design
] Development ;,599;000 165,000 5,000 80,000 1,849,000
7 Env i ronmenta I
Studies 58,900 45,000 354,700 380,900 1,855,900 120,000 2,045, 700 4,861,100
·. '] 8 Transmission 684,300 25,000 20,000. 729,300
9 Construction
] Cost Estimate
& Schedule 66,000 65,000 54,000 185,000
10 Licensing 226,500 57,000 10,000 50,000 343,500
] Subtotals 3,244,900 1,122,500 5,064,300 761,000 600,000 382,200 408,400 564,000 3,353,400 1,855,900 140,000. 2,073,200 165,000 !19, 734,8oo 1
'] 11 Marketing &
Flnant;lng 629,600 157,400 2,500 --5,500 795,000
12 Public
J Participation 133,300 443,300 18,500 8,500 10,000 8,500 10,000 12,800 12,800 657,700
13 A <in In I s·trat ion 24,400 120,000 157,000 301,400
J Subtotals 787,300 720,700 18,500 8,500 12,500 8,500 10,000 175,300 12,800 ---1,754,100,21,488,900 -----
J Non-d I scret lonar·y amounts: Private Land Use Payments ($36,000 per year) 90,000
Full Time Native Inspector C$3,000 per month) 90,000
APA Study Coordination and Review 250,000
Independent Cost Estimate and Seismic Risk Analysis 1,000,000
J ADF&G Environmertal Coordinator ($75,000 per year) 187,500
(1) A total of $1,443,500 has
1 1,617,5ool23,106,4oo
J been assumed as the salvage value of camps to be transferred
for use during contln~ing field invest igat io'ns after I icense application is filed.
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TABLE A.3.2 -BUDGET SUMMARY -POST LICENSE APPLICATION STUDIES
($ 1979)
Task
No. Task Name
1 Power Studies
2 Surveys & Site Facilities
3 Hydrology
4 Seismic Studies
5 Geotechnical Exploration
6 Design Development
7 Environmental Studies
8 Transmission
9 Construction Cost
Estimate and Schedule
10 Licensing
SUBTOTAL
11 Marketing & Financing
12 Public Participation
13 Administration
SUBTOTAL
Non-discretionary Amounts
Private Land Use Payment
Full Time Native Inspector
APA Coordination & Review
ADF&G Environmental Coordination
SUBTOTAL
Pioneer Access Road Construction
NOTE: (1) Excluding Demobilization
(2) Including ADF&G Costs
Cumulative
Totals
4,600,000(1)
1,380,000
750,000
2,500,000
1,900,000
4,940,00Q(2)
200,000
430,000
16,700,000
450,000
250,000
200,000
900,000 17,600,000
90,000
90,000
250,000
187,500
6172500 18,217,500
8,000,000 2622172500
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:
Task
~ Task Name
Power Studies
2 Surveys & Site Faci I itles
3 Hydrology
4 Seismic Studies
5 Geotechnical Exploration
6 Design Development
7 Environmental Studies
8 Transmission
9 Construction Cost Estimate
& Schedule
10 Licensing
11 Marketing & Financing
12 Public Participation
13 Administration
SUBTOTALS ($ 1979)
Provision for Escalation
(based on 8% per year)
SUBTOTALS ($ escalated)
Non-discretionary amounts
Private Land Use
Full Time Native Inspector
APA Study Coordination
and Review
ADF&G Environmental
Coordinator
SUBTOTALS
TOTALS
Independent Cost Estimate
and Seismic Risk Analysis
GRAND TOTAL
67.0
746.8
9.6
61.0
45.0
552.0
4.0
63.5
126.0
379.0
104.8
2,158.7
o.o
2,158.0
9.0
9.0
25.0
18.7
61.7
2,?19. 7
TABLE A.3.3 -ESTIMATED STUDY COSTS BY QUARTER
PRE-LICENSE APLICATION STUDIES ($ 1000)
January 1, 1980 to June 30, 1982
1980
__ 2_ 3
102.0 171.0
715.0 606.0
141.0 151.0
203.0 260.0
408.0 806.0
82.0·
552.0 552.0
37.7 49.0
30.0 15.0
126.0 48.0
26.7 27.0
22.0 23.0
2,363.4
41.0
2,410.4
9.0
9.0
25.0
18.8
61.8
2,472.2
2,790.0
111.0
2,801.0
9.0
9.0
25.0
18.7
61.7
2,862. 7
4
67.0
472.0
176.0
207.0
90.5
83.0
552.0
50.6
15.0
36.0
27.0
23.0
1, 799.1
108.0
1,907.1
9.C
9.0
25.0
18.8
61.8
1, 968.9
Quarters
429.0
186.0
28.0
567.0
104.0
555.0
44.0
15.0
49.0
58.0
23.0
2,058.0
167.0
2,225.0
9.0
9.0
25.0
18.7
61.7
2,286.7
1981
_....;;2;;...__ 3
429.0 428.0
186.0 186.0
113.0 157.0
798.0 771.0
151.0 296.0
554.0 554.0
109.0 129.0
47.0 13.0
15.0 15.0
47.0 36.0
27.0 26.0
23.0 23.0
2,499.0
255.0
2,754.0
9.0
9.0
25.0
18.8
61.8
2,815.8
2,634.0
324.0
2,958.0
9.0
9.0
25.0
18.7
61.7
3,019.7
4
402.0
186.0
111.0
47.0
516.0
522.1
135.0
13.0
21.0
51.0
14.0
23.0
2,041.1
296.0
2,337.1
9.0
9.0
25.0
18.8
61.8
2,398.9
1982
2
376.0 376.0
186.0 178.0
19.0 15.0
59.0 29.0
513.0 104.0
279.0 189.0
135.0 36.0
44.0 68.0
23.0 131.0
85.0 191.0
28.0 45.0.
23.0 13.6
1, 770.0 1,:J :'5.6
297.0 . 263.0
Totals
407.0
4,979.8
1,585.6
1, 174.0
3,620. 5
1,849.0
4,861.1
729.3
185.0
343.5
795.0
657.7
301.4
21,488.9
2,067.0 1,638.6 23,256.2
9.0 9.0 90.0
9.0 . 9.0 90.0
25. 0 25. 0 250. 0
18.7 18.8 187.5
61.7 61.8 617.5
2,128.7 1,700.4 -23,873.7
1,000.0
24,873.7
A3-4
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SECTION A4 -LOGISTICAL PLAN A4-1
(a) Statement of Problems
The sheer magnitude of the proposed project is itself virtually a
guarantor of problems scaled to match. This plan seeks to anticipate
and address major problems in advance--and thus to reduce the force of
their impacts. Problems to be considered include:
(1) Land Use Restrictions and Permit Requirements. The unique nature
of the proposed project area is such that land use restrictions
and permit requirements will be imposed by multitudinous agencies.
This subject is developed in further detail in subparagraph (b)
below.
(2) Access. Perhaps the single greatest physical constraint on rapid
successful completion of necessary site investigations is the
difficulty of access. The project area is far from existing roads
and no airfield is available to serve Watana dam site. The bulk
of the project supplies (including fuel needs) must be brought
overland during the winter months, demanding careful, detailed,
expert advanced planning for a full year•s operation. Even
helicopter access is difficult (in addition to being expensive)
since weather conditions including fog, winds, freezing rains,
icing conditions, and snow frequently restrict or prevent
helicopter use.
(3) Seasonal and Cyclical Constraints. The nature of the required
work is such that a number of peak manning loads will occur,
particularly during short summer seasons. The relative brevity of
important data collection periods and the extensive time lapse
before like collection activity can occur make it imperative that
the proper investigators be at the correct location with the
necessary equipment on time. (In this regard, for example,
abortive data collection efforts during a particular spawning
season may not be recouped for five years.)
(4) Weather. The effect of adverse weather on helicopter operations
has already been noted above. Beyond the access question, though,
is the extent to which weather conditions impact project
operations. Consider aerial photography requirements, for
example. The period after snow melt and prior to leaf cover is
important, but weather conditions may severely limit its already
short duration. Project planning must allow for weather delays as
well as for gainful production on alternative tasks during
inclement weather.
(5) Coordination of Subcontractor Activities. Acres has assembled a
strong team representing high qualifications in a number of
project areas as well as a substantial Alaskan presence. The
strength of such a team can only be brought to bear fully and well
if a proper system for management and coordination of diverse
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A4-2
activities is employed. This is especially true in view of the
widespread geographical dispersion of various design offices.
(b) Summary of Land Use Restrictions and Permit Requirements
(1) Interested Agencies. A number of organizations and agencies have
direct interests in the project area. These include:
-Bureau of Land Management under whose control all lands now
fall.
-Native villages which have already made selections, generally
along the Susitna River, bordering federal power reserves which
had been established prior to Alaska•s assumption of Statehood.
It should be noted that the power reserve does not include all
of the land which would be required for the Watana reservoir as
proposed in the Corps of Engineers• pre-authorization study
(resulting, of course, from the Corps• selection of a higher dam
at Watana than had earlier been proposed in studies by the
Bureau of Reclamation). Native villages ultimately acquire
surface rights to virtually all of the lands bordering proposed
reservoirs as well as certain downstream and general vicinity
parcels.
Cook Inlet Region Incorporated, which will acquire all
subsurface rights to the Native Village lands and which may
temporarily receive and hold lands in trust until they are
ultimately conveyed to individual villages in accordance with
prior selections.
-Alaska Department of Natural Resources, which administers water
rights. The State is the owner of all lands lying under the
Susitna River and its tributaries.
-The Alaska Department of Fish and Game, whose responsibilities
for protection and management of wildlife resources are
essentially independent of ownership.
-The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers who are charged by Congress
with administering permit programs for navigable waters and for
wetlands.
-Other federal agencies whose involvement is assured because a
federal license is required. (Thus, it is not necessarily true
that the passage of land ownership to Native Corporations will
eliminate most federal permit requirements or interventions. In
this regard, for example, federally legislated archeological
checks and clearances are expected to be required even though
land ownership may have been transferred from the federal
domain.) Particular agencies involved in coordination and/or
permitting include the Fish and Wildlife Service, National
Marine Fisheries Service, and the Environmental Protection
Agency.
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Other State agencies whose concerns include water and air
quality--and others which will control certain lands in the
Susitna Basin which may ultimately be acquired by the State in
exchange for lands selected elsewhere by Natives.
(2) Constraints. The net effects of dealing with diverse permitting
agencies and resolving uncertainties in land ownership or water
rights will be multifold. Surely they demand careful and detailed
advanced planning, backed by experience in Alaska, for it matters
little that 15 necessary permits have been acquired when one
forgotten one holds up any work on a project. They also demand
carefully coordinated application and implementation procedures,
for care must be taken to ensure that funds are not twice expended
to comply with a single provision common to two permits.
We intend to produce a high quality, technically correct,
economically sound, environmentally acceptable report--including
FERC license application if alternatives analysis and other
studies support it--on time and without introducing permanent
damages in the project area. It is this latter damage avoidance
objective on which most permits are based. It follows that
permittee and permittor should, in every case, be able to resolve
apparent difficulties and proceed with the necessary activities.
Proposed Methods for Dealing With Problems
The very fact that land use is severely restricted suggests that the
closest possible relationship should be established with the land
owners. Because we anticipate seeing ownership pass to the Cook Inlet
Region, Inc., (CIRI), and thence ultimately to various selecting Native
Villages, we propose to engage CIRI (in association with its engineer,
Holmes and Narver (H&N)) to undertake a major share of the logistics
activities in support of the project. Our own management system will
be such that a responsible senior Acres official with decision-making
authority will establish a project office in Anchorage, from which all
in-state activities will be coordinated. The Project Manager will
divide his time between in-state field data collection and out-of-state
activities to include sophisticated design efforts in the home offices,
seismic analysis at wee offices in California, coordination with
federal agencies (including FERC) as appropriate, and similar tasks.
In later stages of detailed design, he will also need to review
hydraulic model tests in Niagara Falls, ice studies atthe Cold Regions
Laboratory in New Hampshire (provided government projects do not
preempt), and confer with potential manufacturers and suppliers.
Certain specific points may be made regarding the proposed logistical
operation:
(1) CIRI/H&N will provide the layout and design of a semipermanent
camp near Watana and a tent camp for establishment near Devil
Canyon, if required.
(2) CIRI/H&N will furnish all camp equipment, furniture, materials
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A4-4
and supplies except for fuel and pad for each camp. R&M will
provide the pad.
(3) CIRI/H&N will furnish transportation of all building materials for
both camps to Watana. The movement of camp materials to Devil
Canyon will be provided by helicopters to be chartered by Acres.
(4) CIRI/H&N will operate and maintain both camps and furnish all food
and camp operating supplies except fuel. FMA will supply air
transportation for personnel and summer resupply of food and
consumables.
(5) CIRI/H&N will obtain the permits required for both camps.
{6) CIRI/H&N will operate the camps on the following schedule:
-Watana: Year round, February 1980-June 1982
-Devil Canyon: June through September 1980 and June through
September. 1981
(7) The Watana Camp will house a maximum of 60 persons (including O&M
staff). The Devil Canyon camp will house 20 persons (including
O&M staff).
(8) CIRI/H&N will furnish electrical power, water and sewage systems
for each camp. A small, biological sewage treatment plant will be
installed to handle the camp sewage wastes. Incineration and/or
approved burial methods will be used to dispose of other camp
wastes. All operations will be conducted in accordance with DOI
st i pu 1 at ions and DEC permits and regu 1 at ions.
Local surface water sources will be investigated and economic
studies performed to determine the suitability of supplying the
camp water needs. If local surface water proves unsuitable, then
installation of a well will be required.
(9) CIRI/H&N will furnish communications equipment:
-Ground to aircraft: appropriate navigational aids and
communication facilities will be installed in support of air
operations.
-Camp to work site: A base station shortwave radio will be
installed at each camp location, and mobile radios will be
carried by each work crew in the field. In addition, mobile
radios will be installed in helicopters to allow communication
with the camp and ground crews.
-Camp to outside: It is expected that the communication needs of
the POS will require the installation of telephone lines to the
camp facilities. Typically, these requirements have been
grossly underestimated. We will work closely with local
communication subcontractors to establish the level of hardware
required to support the project.
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{10) The Watana Camp, as furnished by CIRI/H&N, will consist of the
following facilities::
-Dormitories of 64 persons (2 persons/room), toilet, showers, and
personal laundry facilities (washer/dryer).
-Kitchen/diner with food storage
-Offices: 4 each {200 sq. ft.,total 800 sq. ft.) with furniture,
but without office machines, i.e., typewriters, adding machines
or photocopiers, etc.
Recreation hall with: pool table, ping pong table, TV/Video
tape player, movies.
CIRI/H&N will supply movies and video tapes.
-Fuel storage: fuel storage dumps will be installed to provide
adequate storage of diesel and jet (helicopter) fuels. Bladder
tanks installed in approved, lined and diked areas will service
the needs of the camp and aircraft:
Jet fuel - 3 each, 25,000 gallon bladder tanks
Gasoline - 1 each, 25,000 gallon bladder tanks
Diesel fuel - 6 each, 25,000 gallon bladder tanks
Propane - 2 each, 500 gallon tanks
-Laundry facilities for sheets, towels and kitchen linen
-Warehouse/shop, not including shop equipment
-Generators and generator shelter
Water system with storage
-Sewage/incinerator system
-Dormitories, kitchen/diner, and recreation facilities to be
connected via Arctic walkways.
(11) The Devil Canyon camp (if required--see item 23) as furnished by
CIRI/H&N will consist of the following facilities:
-10 each, 2-man tents with wooden floors
- A kitchen/diner tent with wooden floors
-Food storage
-Shower facilities
-Incinerator toilets
-Fuel storage
-Generator and generator shelter
-Water system.
(12) Food services will include well-balanced meals (three times per
day -typically):
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Hot breakfast: 6 a.m. to 7 a.m.
Cold sack lunch
Hot dinner: 6 p.m. to 7 p.m.
Pastries, fruit and coffee for snacks
(13) The following items are to be supplied as noted:
A4-6
-All fuel required, estimated as follows for camp operations
(Acres):
*Diesel 1980
110,000 gal
1981
120,000 gal
1982
60,000 gal
Note: diesel fuel required for power plant, water pumping and
incineration of sewage/garbage.
-Office equipment and supplies (Acres)
-Air transportation (including emergency) for personnel (FMA)
All personnel will move to and from the field camp by light
aircraft originating at the Talkeetna airfield. Overland
transportation will be provided to Talkeetna from other
locations. Transportation from the field camp to specific work
sites will be provided by helicopter support. Where possible,
field personnel will travel to work sites on foot.
-Air transportation of food and consumable supplies from
Anchorage as required (FMA). It is estimated that the weekly
requirement will be as follows:
Summer -4,000/lbs/week (average)
Winter -2,000/lbs/week (average)
(14) The timely mobilization of the Susitna Camp in February 1980 is
contingent upon having lead time to procure (90 -120 days) camp
buildings, generators, sewage treatment plant, pillow tanks, etc.
(15) CIRI/H&N will apply for and secure all permits necessary for any
aspect of camp establishment and operation.
(16) CIRI/H&N will provide the single coordinating point for
satisfaction of Alaskan Native Corporation land use stipulations •
(17) Acres American Incorporated will establish a project office in
Anchorage and will designate a senior staff member with decision
authority as Chief Engineer for Alaska operations (CEAO). The
project office will accommodate representatives of other team
members as well.
(18) All plans of operations as required by Bureau of Land Management
will be prepared under the direction of the Acres CEAO. Specific
responsibilities for preparation of plans within the proposed
project team include:
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-Overland transportation -CIRI/H&N
-Foundation and materials explorations -R&M
-Fuel transportation and storage -CIRI/H&N
-Fire prevention and suppression -CIRI/H&N
-Wetlands survey -TES
-Biological studies -TES
-Waste disposal -CIRI/H&N
-Air operations -FMA
-Surface resource rehabilitation -R&M
-Personnel housing and transportation -CIRI/H&N
(19) The CEAO will prepare a detailed affirmative action plan for APA
approval in which precise measures are set out to ensure maximum
opportunities are made available to minorities, females, and
handicapped persons. (We have already sought the assistance of
CIRI/H&N to serve in the role of labor broker to ensure that, when
available, necessary skills are drawn from the Native population
in villages which have selected project lands.)
(20) If it can be shown to be cost effective, a tie line connecting the
corporate headquarters of Acres American with the CEAO's office
will be established to permit frequent uninhibited contact. In
addition, Telex facilities in the Alaska project office will be
installed so that time zone difficulties will not preclude
receipt of messages transmitted at times when one or another of
the various Acres' offices on the net is unmanned.
(21) A trained value engineering officer, drawn from within the Acres'
staff, will review major operational plans and project designs
throughout the course of the work.
(22) To the extent that necessary goods and services are available in
Alaska, they will generally be procured in Alaska (unless
significant economic advantages to APA can otherwise be secured).
(23) Plans for the Devil Canyon tent camp will be eliminated if use of
the Devil Canyon Lodge is shown to be cost effective.
(24) To permit the earliest possible start of field activities, initial
minimal winter camp facilities will be established in the same
location as used by the Corps of Engineers in their recent
drilling program. No expansion beyond the bounds of that area
will be possible until snow cover disappears and appropriate
archeological clearances are obtained.
(25) During the initial winter months, an accessible frozen lake will
be cleared to allow access to the study site by Hercules Aircraft.
As soon as conditions permit, construction of a 5,000 ft gravel
airstrip will commence. The airstrip will be located in a manner
that will service the temporary construction camp and also allow
for possible expansion of facilities to serve the eventual dam
construction •
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A4-8
(26) Fire is the most ever-present danger to a camp and its occupants
in Alaska. The most common cause of camp fires are uncontrolled
incinerators and leaking seals on individual oil fired furnace
units. Because of the risk involved, positive actions will be
taken including:
(27)
(28)
(29)
(30)
(31)
(32)
-Installation and periodic inspection of smoke alarms
-Periodic inspection of furnaces
-Installation of fire fighting equipment
-Establishment of a fire brigade.
Safety/OSHA/Fire Prevention-Periodic inspections of all site
facilities will be peformed by trained personnel to evaluate and
make recommendations regarding safety, compliance with OSHA.
standards and fire prevention programs. A safety officer will be
designated. This person will organize camp fire brigades and
report on the effectiveness of the effort. He/she will report
directly to the project manager of field activities and will have
the authority to stop work that is being performed in an unsafe
manner.
Medical -At a minimum, each field camp will have complete first
aid facilities and personnel identified with advanced first aid
training. Qualified personnel will review the first aid program
and make recommendations as appropriate. Medevac facilities and
procedures will be available in the event injured personnel need
to be transported to other facilities.
Office Services -Office services (typing, reproduction, etc.)
appropriate to each field location will be provided as needed.
Complete facilities will be available through Moolin and R&M
offices in both Anchorage and Fairbanks, as well as the project
office to be established in Anchorage by Acres.
Purchasing - A purchasing office within the project office,
staffed by an experienced procurement person ( s), wi 11. be
established in Anchorage to support the needs of the POS. In
addition, a purchasing/warehouse person will be located in the
field camp to coordinate the procurement needs, operate the camp
warehouse and administer a spare parts program.
Shipping/Marshalling-Procurement personnel located in Anchorage
will coordinate the movement of all project materials from vendors
to the camp location(s). Most materials will travel overland to a
marshalling yard to be established in Talkeetna where materials
will then be air shipped to the field site. Perishable items and
11 hot 11 items will be air shipped direct from Anchorage to the field
locations. Materials that cannot be air shipped will be
transported overland during winter in accordance with DOI
stipulations.
Warehousing-An appropriate warehouse will be established at the
field construction camp to store/control the material needs of the
POS. Minimal indoor storage will be provided, with the bulk of
the material being stored outdoors. A procurement/warehouse per-
son will be responsible for the flow and control of all materials.
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(33) Equipment Support/Spare Parts -Based upon previous experience
with equipment use in Alaska, particularly during winter/arctic
conditions, the establishment of a spare parts program is a
necessity to ensure equipment availability and cost effective
completion of the POS. Such a program will be developed, with the
help of the local equipment vendors, and administered through the
procurement/warehouse person.
It is important to note that camp facilities will be designed to
accommodate a much greater peak load than had originally been
contemplated in the earlier Corps of Engineers• Plan of Study.
This approach will permit some flexibility in meeting the
difficulties associated with short data collection seasons and
possible unfavorable weather conditions. In addition, our plan to
establish a large camp at Watana essentially eliminates the daily
helicopter transportation system used by the Corps of Engineers
during their most recent field investigations. The. question of
needed flexibility is further addressed by observing that the
necessary equipment for field investigations and, in partciular,
for geotechnical investigations is integral to the proposed
project team. Because R&M Consultants, Inc., is unique in its
possession of a major investigatory equipment inventory, we
anticipate being able to respond rapidly when requirements
arise--and, at the same time, to avoid the costly downtime which
would accrue for equipment brought into Alaska specifically for
the project purpose.
In short, R&M's equipment will be available for project purposes
as necessary; but its use on other tasks when not required for the
Susitna project will reduce the total cost to the Alaska Power
Authority.
(d) Schedule Requirements
A brief outline logic diagram is displayed at Plate A.4.1. As may be
noted thereon, we intend to have a permanent camp in operation prior to
the end of February 1980. This requires herculean effort and high
early mobilization costs. Once the camp has been established, the
subsequent loading will, of course, be a function of requirements of
the various field investigation teams.
We anticipate at the outset that submittal of license application will
not mark the end of field data needs. On the contrary, certain
environmental field studies will be scheduled as far as 2-l/2'years
beyond the planned FERC application. In addition, the history of major
hydroelectric licensing effort is repl~te with post-application federal
demands for additional field data. It follows that the permanent camp
should remain in place at the termination of the first phase of the
work to support scheduled and directed activities. Thus, the cost
estimate for camps as contained in the appropriate work package assumes
amortization of the facilities over a 5-year period, permitting a
substantial salvage value to be transferred to the next phase and to be
used as an offset against otherwise high costs to be incurred prior to
license application.
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(e) Public Participation Philosophy A4-10
Details of the proposed public participation program are contained
within the detailed task descriptions at Task 12 of the Plan of Study.
Within the context of logistical planning, however, it is important to
highlight several points:
(1) Needs and Desires of Area Residents. Whereas it is obvious that,
if a major project is constructed, permanent impacts will be felt
by area residents, it is also true that even the conduct of a
deliberate and extensive study can cause disruption of lifestyle
for that group. The public participation plan includes provisions
for public meetings in Talkeetna (where local impacts are
possible) as well as a number of workshops, the locations of which
have been purposely not pinned down in order to permit us to be
responsive to sensitive problems when -and especially where -
they arise. We have also chosen to include a full time public
information officer whose duties demand sensitivity to needs and
desires of all who will be affected either by the study or by the
proposed project if studies indicate it should be built.
(2) The Action List. The unique action list system which we propose·
to use will provide a means to ensure that every required action,
whether initiated by the request of a private individual or any
representative of public or private organizations, is a matter of
record. The proposed computerized system provides for frequent
update and the ability to check action status at any time. It
follows that, for the first time to our knowledge, a means will be
available to ensure that every action requested will have explicit
attention and a by-name action officer-or will have an explicit
statement of rejection available for review by external review
panels, APA, or others. In short, the desires of area residents
wi 11 be sought, recorded, acted upon, and the. action status wi 11
be available in real time all the time!
(3) Getting Out the Information. With a project as large and complex
as the one proposed, it is almost inevitable that a steady flow of
highly technical data and reports will be generated. Whereas such
information will generally be available to the public at the cost
of reproduction, it will not have been prepared for the layman.
We intend to prepare special brochures, to be distributed free of
charge, wherein project status is encapsulated in a readable form.·
Pertinent reports of all kinds will be available sufficiently far
in advance of public meetings to permit thoughtful study prior to
presenting public testimony.
(4) Keeping Objectivity. No matter how well intentioned the project
manager and his staff may be, they may well succumb to their own
enthusiasm. We propose to avail ourselves of the objectivity
which can be brought to bear by external engineering and
environmental boards whose reviews from time to time will not only
provide the public a measure of confidence that the course of the
work is correct and proper, but also will serve to offer some
recourse in the event that the project manager•s recommendation
and APA 1 s decision to reject a citizen•s proposed action is not
accepted •
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In short, the public participation program as proposed herein
is responsive to the needs and desires of local residents -and to
the public in general -because it provides explicit actions which
can be tracked, because it includes an affirmative and vigorous
public information program, and because it provides objective
review groups whose eminence will be unquestionable and whose
deliberations will provide an unprecedented quality and reliabilty
check.
<' •• •• • :
:TASK~T~ POWER STUDIES' ·.. . •. ·. ·.·.
:TASK: 2 : SURVEYS AND SITE FACILilTIES
~~~~·;!;~ : ~/~I¥~~igGi+uDTEs · . .. . . .
TASK'· 5: ·GEOTECHNICAL: EXPLORATION.
···.·Tr:•AA·ss··.·,KK .. ', .
7
6····==.·•. DESIGN PEVELOPMENt .. ··. ·. ENVI RONMENTAt · STUDIES .
. _,TASK 8: · . TRANSMISSION •. · • ·.· . ·.
• TASK 9: COST ESTIMATES AND SCHEDULES<
· .. TASK 10': ·LICENSING -.• · .. · .... · ...
TA~K lF:~ 'MARKETING AND. FINANC:E .·
TASKl2: PUBLIC PARTICIPATION.·
.. TASKii3: <ADMINISTRATION . . ...
. . . . . . . "(_".
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SECTION AS -DETAILED ACTIVITY DESCRIPTIONS
A.5.1 -Introduction
As discussed in Section A2 it is proposed to achieve the objectives of the
Susitna Plan of Study by undertaking a program of work divided into the
following 13 tasks:
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Task 4
Task 5
Task 6
Task 7
Task 8
Task 9
Task 10
Task 11
Task 12
Task 13
-Power Studies
-Surveys and Site Facilities
-Hydrology
-Seismic Studiei
-Geotechnical Exploration
-Design Development
-Environmental Studtes
-Transmission
-Construction Cost Estimates
-Licensing
-Marketing and Financing
-Public Participation
-Administration
and Schedules
Within each of these tasks, a series of subtasks has been identified as
shown on the Master Schedules, Plates A7.1 and A7.2. Plate A2.1 is an
overall summary schedule for the entire Plan of Study. More detailed
schedules and logic diagrams for some specific areas of the study appear
under individual subtask description in this section of the POS. In the
following subsections the Scope Statements for Tasks and Subtasks are
presented and discussed. A complete listing of all subtasks with
associated costs is presented in Section A3 -Budget Summaries.
Throughout this section of the proposal, reference will be found to •Tiesign
Transmittals ... This term is used by Acres to describe a formalized docu-
ment prepared t6 present the engineers or designers response in definitive
terms as to how he interprets a statement of work and how he intends to
proceed with the detailed engineering. The 11 Level of Effort 11 sho~m for
each subtask relates to the completion of that task as part of the combined
effort of all participants.
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A 5-2
A.5.2 -TASK 1: POWER STUDIES
(i) Task Objectives
To determine the need for power in the Alaska Railbelt Region, to
develop forecasts for electric load growth in the area, to consider
viable alternatives for meeting such load growth, to develop and
rank a series of feasible, optimum expansion scenarios and finally
to determine the environmental impacts of the selected optimum
scenarios.
(ii) Task Output
The primary output of Task 1 will be a report dealing with the
selection and ranking of optimum system expansion scenarios for the
Alaska Railbelt Region. The final version of this report will be
submitted for review and approval by Alaska Power Authority on or
about Week 48 of the Study. Preliminary findings of the study will
be discussed with Alaska Power Authority on or about Week 30 of the
Study. Such a discussion will center on whether or not work on the
Susitna Development should continue or whether another, possibly
more viable alternative should be examined. Design Transmittals
outlining intermediate stages of the power studies will also be
issued as indicated on the logic diagram, Plate T1.1
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 1.01 -Load Forecasting Methodology
Subtask 1.02 -Development of Load Growth Scenarios
Subtask 1.03 -Selection of Alternatives
Subtask 1.04 -Selection of Viable Expansion Sequences
Subtask 1.05 -Expansion Sequence Impact Assessments
Subtask 1.06 -Power Alternatives Study Report
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
The primary purpose of Task 1 as discussed in Section (ii) above is
the establishment and documentation of appropriate load forecasts
for the Alaska Railbelt area and the development of optimum system
expansion sequence scenarios to meet this forecast. The evaluation
of these factors for the Railbelt Region and the relationship and
scheduling of Task 1 to the remaining twelve tasks of the overall
Plan of Study are illustrated in the master schedule, Plate A7.1.
This portion of the study will be undertaken in essentially three
parts. The initial phase will deal with the development of
appropriate load forecast scenarios of low, medium and high peak
loads. The second portion of Task 1 will deal with the development
of optimum mixes and sequences of feasible alternative sources for
meeting future power demands. These mixes will be developed with and
without the Susitna Project, which at this stage will be assumed for
study purposes to be that developed by the Corps of Engineers. The
third section of the study will deal with the preliminary,
comparative environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the developed
optimum mixes on the Railbelt Region.
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A 5-3
In order to meet the overall objectives of the Plan of Study as
stated in Section A2 above, other activities of the program will
proceed in parallel with Task 1. These will essentially involve
Task 2 -Surveys and Site Facilities, Task 3 -Hydrology, Task 4 -
Seismic Studies and Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration. For logisti-
cal reasons, these activities will have been initiated on the
assumption that the Susitna Project will be that which proves to be
the optimum development for Alaska Power Authority. However, the
Task 1 power studies may determine otherwise. Under such circum-
stances, the ongoing studies would be halted pending discussions
with Alaska Power Authority to determine the future course of action
most appropriate. On the other hand, should Task 1 studies confirm
the earlier studies undertaken by the Corps of Engineers and others
that the Susitna Project, with dams at Watana and Devil Canyon as
the appropriate means of meeting future load growth in the Railbelt
area, the study will continue as planned.
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Subtask 1.01 -Load Forecasting Methodology
(a) Objective
A 5-4
Evaluate alternative forecasting methodologies in the context of the
characteristics of the Alaska Railbelt Region, data requirements and
availability, and select an appropriate method for load forecasting.
(b) Approach
Forecasting models can be divided into those based upon exponential
growth models, those that employ multiple linear regression models and
those which derive electrical demand as a result of multiplying
estimates of customer usage by the number of customers.
An additional distinction can be made among the forecasting models
according to whether the ultimate forecast is the result of a single
component model in which annual peak demand is forecast directly, or a
two-component model in which a base demand and a weather-sensitive
demand are forecast separately and combined to determine the peak. A
single component or a two-component model may be used by a utility
employing a model in any of three categories listed above.
Much use will be made of econometric modelling work already undertaken
in Alaska by the Institute of Social and Economic Research under the
direction of Assistant Professors T.L. Husky and o.s. Goldsmith.
Consideration will be given to using the Institute's econometric model
or a modification of it in order to arrive at the most effective load
forecasting tool.
(c) Discussion
The exponential growth models, despite fitting historical data
extremely well, are not suitable for predicting the post 1973 growth.
We will concentrate on examining several multiple regression models
and derived demand models. Some of the candidate models include
CILCO's derived-demand model, California's Energy Resources
Conservation and Development Commission (ERCDC) model, and a current
two-stage econometric model.
In evaluating the regression models, the three steps in their usage,
namely model design, estimating the regression equations, and
forecasting will be examined. Model design involves the selection of
the independent variables and the formulation of the mathematical
relationship between variables. The explanatory (independent)
variables will be examined for their economic relevance.
Estimating the regression equation involves use of historical data.
Limitations in these data may preclude the inclusion of variables even
though they are relevant. Availability of data, as well as the
regression model statistical validity will be examined •
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A 5-5
The final step in using regression models involves the application of
the estimated equation to forecasts for the explanatory variables and
arrive at a forecast for the dependent variable. Note that the
regression model requires forecasts for the explanatory variables
before it can forecast the dependent variable. Thus the quality of
the forecast for the dependent variable is contingent on the quality
of other forecasts. While this may appear to be a significant limita-
tion, the forecaster can test the sensitivity of the demand forecast
to alternative assumptions about the future levels of explanatory
variables.
In contrast to regression-type models, derived demand models do not
rely upon observed macroeconomic relationships between demand for
electricity and other variables. Rather, they employ a microeconomic
approach and derive the total expected demand for electricity from the
11 bottom-up 11
• In the simplest form, demand would be equal to the
number of users of electricity times the expected usage per user. On
a more sophisticated level, the users of electricity are broken down
into many different categories (e.g., residential, industrial, commer-
cial) and the consumption per user category is divided according to
the source of the consumption (e.g., consumption by heating systems,
refrigerators, etc.). Detailed demographic data are employed to
determine trends in population growth and consumption patterns.
Regression analysis is often used to determine the nature of many of
the microeconomjc relationships. Therefore, the above comments
relating to multiple regression analysis may apply to derived demand
models.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$40,000
2,000
Total Subtask 1.01 ••••••••••••••••••• $42,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 10
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Subtask 1.02 -Development of Load Growth Scenarios
(a) Objective
A 5-6
Derive a range of realistic load forecasts for the Alaska Railbelt
Region through the year 2005.
{b) Approach
This subtask will be subdivided into four further work packages:
-Analysis of Energy Demand
-Scenario Generation
-Development of Forecasts
-Preparation of Design Transmittal
These packages will be undertaken essentially consecutively, the
transmittal being used for the basis of input for subsequent develop-
ment of Subtasks 1.04 and 1.05 activities.
(c) Analysis of the Energy Demand
This work package will consist of a detailed energy demand analysis to
identify the main macro and micro socioeconomic, political, and tech-
nological factors (the energy demand determinants) which influence
long-term evolution of energy demand in each of the different economic
sectors in Alaska Railbelt area (i.e., residential, industrial,
commercial, resale, and governmental).
The factors which influence demand include population, load management
efforts, the electric rate schedule, voluntary conservation and reduc-
tion in utility demand due to direct usage of other forms of energy
(i.e., solar, wind, geothermal), as well as weather and outside
economic influences such as the price of substitute fuels, electrical
appliances and machinery that use electricity, employment, labor
force, wages and income, taxable sales, housing permits, and building
insulation and appliance-efficiency standards. The possibility of the
introduction of electric transportation systems will also be examined.
These variables are relevant to the economic theory of energy use
either directly or as proxies for the more frequently encountered
variables for which data may not be available.
(d) Scenario Generation
In this work package, scenarios will be built based on a set of
consistent and plausible assumptions and the likelihood of their
occurrence will be assessed.
The use of scenarios is essential, as clearly the future of a society
cannot be forecast over a long period of time. As a general rule, the
scenario method implies a consistent description of a systems evolu-
tion by fixing, through exogenous assumptions, the evolution of
certain variables characteristic of this system --the scenario com-
ponents. The difficulty lies in the selection of these components and
in the formulation of consistent assumptions. To cope with this
problem, the scenario components are first selected among the energy
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A5-7
demand determinants (which have been identified in the first subtask)
and organized in a hierarchical structure derived from the
determinants' structure. Each scenario is based upon assumptions
about the basic determinants describing a consistent pattern of
development for the Alaska Railbelt.
The scenario generation is comprised of three steps:
-Construction of a scenario base-i.e., the identification and
structure of the scenario components. Three types of basic
determinants can be isolated, among which there are dependence
relationships:
(i) determinants describing the long-run trends of society,
(ii) determinants characterizing the overall policy of public
authorities and therefore the long-term orientation of
societal development,
(iii) determinants related to the energy supply (supply con-
straints, energy prices, availability of other energy
sources).
-Specification of the scenario path-i.e., the defining of assump-
tions based on the evolution of all components so as to describe the
various economic conditions of the system over time.
-Assessing the likelihood of occurrence of the various scenarios.
The probability of the scenarios are computed by combining the
single event probabilities of changes in the determinants.
Sensitivity analysis is conducted to test how changes in the
probabilities influence the ranking of the scenarios.
(e) Development of Forecasts
The final work package involves running the forecasting model under
the different selected scenarios. The scenarios with the highest
probability of occurrence are run first. The sensitivity of the
forecast to changes in the determinants of the scenarios are
determined.
The results of running the model under different scenarios are
combined in a systematic manner to give a probability distribution
over base and peak loads. The range can be broken down into different
segments and the probabilities over these segments can be computed.
For a given scenario, a load duration curve is constructed by plotting
against time the number of hours during which systen demand exceeds a
given level. The system energy demand is measured by the area under
the load-duration curve. Combined wih the probability distributions
over the scenarios, the probability distribution over energy demand
can be constructed both for the annual demand and typical weekdays and
weekend days of each month.
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A 5-8
(f) Preparation of Design Transmittal
The design transmittal will document the results of Subtasks 1.01 and
1.02 activities, the sources of information and data used in the
development of load forecasts, and present a recommendation for load
growth scenarios to be considered in the development of alternative
expansion sequences in Subtask 1.04.
(g) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$85,000
. 3,000
Total Subtask 1.02 ••••••••••••••••••• $88,000
(h) Schedule
Weeks 8 through 26
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Subtask 1.03 -Selection of Power Alternatives
(a) -Objective
Identify and select for evaluation purposes alternative power sources
appropriate for inclusion in future Alaska Railbelt Region load-growth
scenarios.
(b) Approach
This subtask will be subdivided into two further work packages:
-Non-hydro alternatives
-Hydro and tidal alternatives
These packages will be undertaken concurrently, non-hydro alternatives
being developed by Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Anchorage and hydro and
tidal alternatives by Acres American. Each package will include
appropriate analyses to identify which (if any) energy sources would
be viable alternatives to the Susitna Project. The evaluation will
include an initial review of the March 1978 11 Analysis of Future
Requirements and Supply Alternatives for the Railbelt Region ..
published by Battelle Laboratories.
In deciding if a particular system or group of systems could be a
viable alternative, five basic factors must be considered:
-Anticipated demand (location and amount) that the Susitna Project
must supply,
-The maximum amount of power (or reduction in demand for power) that
could be supplied to the Alaska Railbelt Region by each alternative,
-The cost per unit of electricity supplied by each alternative,
-Construction and licensing schedule of each alternative,
-The non-cost impact of implementing each alternative.
The intent will be to examine the widest possible range of
alternatives while relying, as much as possible, on published data.
(c) Non-hydro Alternatives
The non-hydro alternatives to be examined include .. traditional .. energy
sources such as coal or gas-fired steam turbines, combustion turbines
(including combined cycle designs), diesel electric systems and
nuclear power plants. (However, it is most unlikely that the nuclear
alternative will receive serious consideration in Alaska) Studies
undertaken to date for the Railbelt Region suggest that development of
the Beluga and Nenana coal fields are likely to prove to be the
largest viable alternative resources. Published data already
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A5-10
developed by Woodward-Clyde Consultants on behalf of the Golden Valley
Electric Association will be used in the proposed study.
"Non-traditional" alternatives will include solar generation, wind,
biomass, geothermal, and energy from wood and municipal waste. In
addition, "non-structural" alternatives will be considered including
time of day pricing, demand controls or more efficient use of existing
system resources.
Consideration will also be given to the impact of possible changes in
government pol icy with regard to uses of Alaskan natural gas, the
possible "no-action" alternative and the construction of the
Anchorage-Fairbanks transmission intertie alone, in lieu of the
project.
(d) Hydro and Tidal Alternatives
The hydro alternative will not necessarily involve a single
conventional hydro project and may consist of a group of smaller hydro
projects with, for instance, a gas-turbine installation to provide
finn capacity backup or some similar combination meeting the screening
criteria--along with conservation measures which could serve to limit
projected growth.
Within the Southcentral Railbelt of Alaska, the Susitna and Copper
River drainage basins and other smaller rivers including Crescent,
Chakachatna, Beluga, Yentna, Skiventna Chulitna, Talkeetna, Bradley
(Creek) and Love were identified in the 1976 Alaska Power Survey by
the Federal Power Commission as having significant conventional
hydropower potentials. This study identified 23 projects, including
Devils Canyon, Watana and Vee on the Susitna, with a potential
installed capacity for all 23 sites of 8,419 megawatts. There are
currently indications that the 70 MW Bradley Lake Project in the Kenai
Peninsula may be developed in the foreseeble future. Current studies
are also being undertaken by the Alaska Power Administration to
identify "small hydro" potential.
The above references, in addition to other earlier work by the Bureau
of Reclamation and Corps of Engineers and the most recent National
Hydropower Study inventory by the Corps of Engineers, will be used to
develop an overall scope of available hydro potential in the region.
The sources will also be used to develop a specific alternative which
could satisfy projected load demands at least as well as the Susitna
Project. Published reports on the potential for development of the
tidal power resources of the Cook Inlet Region will also be reviewed
for consideration of this alternative.
(e) Discussion
This analysis of alternatives requires input from the task of
forecasting electric load. The estimated demand, including amount,
location and time distribution of demand, will be used as a basis for
evaluating alternatives.
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A5-11
Concurrent with the demand estimation phase, an evaluation will be
made of the amount of energy that can be supplied by each of the
technologies considered. This will involve a preliminary review of
the estimated amount of each energy resource available in Alaska,-
including such items as coal and oil reserves, solar, wind and tidal
patter.ns and geothermal as well as other hydroelectric resources. The
estimates for developing technologies will also include the
availability date for commercial use. Preliminary cost estimates will
be developed for each technology (cost/unit energy) based on the many
existing studies (for example see "California Electricity Generation
Methods Assessment Project••, 1976}. These cost estimates may vary
with the amount of energy delivered, reflecting the necessity to use
scarcer and scarcer resources. ·
The supply estimates for each alternative will be compared with the
projected demand to determine what percentage of the demand each
alternative can meet. It may be that some alternatives cannot supply
any of the demand at reasonable cost. These can be immediately
eliminated from consideration. Or, it may be that a technology is
cost effective but cannot meet the total expected demand. In this
case, several such technologies could be combined to make a single
alternative system to compare with the Susitna project.
The most viable technologies (or groups of technologies) will then be
reduced to a set of well-defined power generation alternatives for
more detailed analysis. The analysis will include a detailed cost
analysis of each alternative (still based primarily on published
studies). This cost analysis will include capital costs (including
transmission system), operation, maintenance and fuel costs, capacity
factor estimation and potential for concurrent operations such as
waste heat distribution. The emphasis will be on consolidating and
correlating information from various sources to allow a consistent
comparison of alternatives.
A scheduling analysis will be conducted to determine when the
technology(s) for the alternative will be available and what leadtimes
are necessary for construction. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation
will be made to identify the non-cost impacts of each alternative.
These impacts are likely to include environmental impacts (air
quality, water quality and ecology); public health and safety impacts;
socioeconomic impacts (such as a "boom-bust" cycle of population
during plant construction); and the licenseability of specific
alternatives to the extent that no insurmountable legal or
environmental barriers are evident.
Non-cost concerns will be organized into a set of attributes for
measuring the overall desirability of each alternative and combined
with cost and scheduling concerns to evaluate each alternative.
These attributes will be designed to cover the range of identified
concerns while not overlapping with one another. Each attribute will
have an associated scale (or measure) to identify the level of
achievement of each alternative with respect to each attribute.
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A5-12
Scales will be designed to be meaningful to decision makers and to be
measurable using existing data as much as possible. If no natural
scale (such as dollars for the cost attribute) exists, constructed
(judgmental) scales will be used. The results of this analysis can be
presented in a matrix showing the level achieved on each attribute for
each alternative.
(f) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (TES) ~ ••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$65,000
20,000
10,000
2,000
Total Subtask 1.03 ••••••••••••••••••• $97,000
(g) Schedule
Weeks 20 through 35
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Subtask 1.04 -Selection of Viable Expansion Sequences
(a) Objective
A5-13
Determine the total system costs of selected future Railbelt Region
expansion sequences, both with and without incorporation of the
Susitna Hydroelectric Project, and rank the preferred generation
expansion scenarios.
{b) Approach
The most straightforward method of evaluating the potential economic
benefit of a hydroelectric project in a given system expansion
scenario is to compare capital investment and system operating costs
on an annual basis, throughout the term of the study, for two
scenarios: one without the benefit of the proposed hydro project; the
other with it.
A number of mathematical models are available to facilitate the vast
number of calculations involved in this type of study. In simplified
terms, the user of such a model provides the program with data which
includes the characteristics of the forecasted load and the
characteristics, availability and costs of generation sources which
will be available throughout the period of the study. The model then
selects the generation sources available to it to satisfy the
projected load in the most economical manner.
To evaluate the economics of a given project, a comparison may be made
of total annual costs of the two system scenarios on a year-by-year
basis throughout the study period. If the system with the hydro
project available is less costly throughout the planning period, the
project is obviously attractive. Conversely, if this system is more
expensive in all years, then the project is unattractive.
It is possible, indeed likely, that the outcome of an economic
evaluation would prove not to be so clear cut. It may be that the
system incorporating the hydro plant would be more expensive in some
years of the study, and less expensive in others, than the system
without that project. In this situation, it would be necessary to
perform comparisons between present worth values of operating costs
for systems represented by the two scenarios.
Although such a strategy may provide a valid economic comparison, the
results may be inconclusive. This is likely to occur in the case of a
hydro project which has a capacity which is relatively small when
compared to its connected system. The economic comparisons then may
be a relatively small difference in two very large numbers.
(c) Selection of Model
In the search for a usable generation planning computer model, three
characteristics of the model are paramount:
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AS-14
-Flexibility_--does the model allow for a varied combination of
alternatives?
-Accessibility--is the model presently available and can it be used
with a minimum of learning time?
-Reliability--is the model actively maintained by its supplier and
has it been used by other utility planners?
A preliminary survey of the market has revealed one model which
satisfies all three criteria. Other models may be available, but
these are generally developed either by or for specific utilities to
solve their particular problems or they are so intricate so as to
require special training in their use.
The computer model selected by Acres for this study is the General
Electric Optimized Generation Program, Version Five (OGP-V). Acres•
staff are familiar with the use of this program on other studies
similar to the Susitna alternatives evaluations. The model is
currently in use for the evaluation of small hydro sites in the
eastern U.S. Earlier versions of the model, OGP-III and OGP-IV were
used in studies performed for the u.s. Army Corps of Engineers in
evaluating alternatives for New England Power Supply scenarios through
the year 2000. This study was part of the Environmental Impact
Statement for the proposed 944 MW Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project
in Maine •
Development of input data and operation of the OGP-V model is
unavoidably costly and time-consuming. Thus, to facilitate the
initial development of viable expansion mix scenarios, use will also
be made of an Acres in-house .. Generation Planning Program... The
results of this initial analysis will permit the preliminary ranking
of alternative generation expansion sequences in order of economic
preference. Tests will be undertaken at this time on the preferred
expansion sequences in order to check the sensitivity of the economic
ranking to variations in:
- 1 oad demand forecast
-capital cost estimates
-fuel cost escalation
-discount rate.
As a result of this analysis, it will be possible to prepare a 11 Short
list.. of preferred generation expansion sequences for more detailed
analysis using OGP-V.
(d) OGP-V
The OGP-V program combines three main factors of the generation
expansion planning decision process: system reliability evaluation;
operations cost estimation; and investment cost estimation. The
program begins by evaluating the power system reliability in the first
study year by means of one of two methods --either a percent reserves
calculation or the computation of the loss of load probability (LOLP).
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A5-15
When the system demand level rises to the point at which either the
user-specified reserve level or the LOLP criteria is violated, the
program 11 installs 11 new generating capacity. The program will add
generation capacity from a user-provided list of available sources.
As each possible choice is evaluated, the program carries out a
production cost calculation and an investment cost calculation, and
eliminates those units or combinations of units whose addition to the
system results in a higher annual cost than other units or
combinations. The program continues in this manner until the
least-cost system addition combination is determined for that year.
In cases where operating cost inflation is present, or where outage
rates vary with time, OGP-V has a look-ahead feature which develops
levelized fuel and O&M costs and mature outage rates out to ten years
ahead of the 11 present 11 time. Once the apparent least-cost additions
to the system necessary to satisfy reserve or LOLP criteria have been
established, the process is repeated for the next succeeding year of
the study.
(e) Discussion
Load forecasting and daily load variation data generated in Subtask
1.02 will be used as input to the computer model together with the
following technical and economic planning criteria:
-generation capacity and energy reserve requirements
-retirements of older units
-cost of money
-economic discount rate
-insurance and tax rates
-economic lifetime of equipment
-effects of cost escalation
-period of analysis
This data will be established in consultation with Alaska Power
Authority, other utilities in the Railbelt Region and other pertinent
agencies. Some of the above parameters, such as the discount rate,
and perhaps cost escalation, will be determined as base rates with a
possible variation over a given range. The analysis will be carried
out at the base rate with sensitivity testing over the possible range
for selected alternatives.
One of the benchmarks against which the economics of a power
generating facility may be measured is the economics of its
alternatives. In many cases, it is possible to identify specific
alternatives against which a given project may be directly compared.
Most generating projects are intended for a specific operating regime
within the power system, such as base-, intermediate-, or peak-load
operation. For such sources, it is a relatively straightforward task
to evaluate the cost of operating a specific alternative.
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A5-16
Hydroelectric projects, due to their hydrologic characteristics, must
be evaluated in a somewhat different manner. A hydro project can be
subject to significant seasonal variations in its generation capacity.
Factors such as rainfall patterns and springtime snowpack runoff can
work to make baseload and peaking benefits available from the same
hydroelectric project. Also, although initi a1 studies of the Devil
Canyon-Watana installations were based upon a fifty percent annual
capacity factor (1,394 MW, 6,100,000 MWh/yr), some base-load (greater
than 80 percent capacity factor) and some peak-load (less than 10
percent capacity factor) energy can be expected to be available. The
way in which such additional capacities become available complicates
the evaluation of a hydroelectric project.
Conventional base-load plants such as coal-fired or nuclear steam
plants are commonly built to take advantage of the economies of scale
available to large plants of this type. Conversely, peaking plants
are usually relatively small ( 1 ess than 100 MW). The base-load energy
produced by even a large hydro plant may be available only at such a
small capacity as to make comparison with the conventional
alternatives meaningless. For example, if the Susitna project, with
its 1,394 MW output at 50 percent can produce only 125 MW at capacity
factors greater than 80 percent, it is difficult to make comparisons
with base-load nuclear or coal plants with capacities on the order of
500 MW or larger. In the same sense, hydrologic conditions may make a
great deal of capacity available at a given site for very short
periods of time as peaking energy. Such large amounts of surplus
energy may make meaningful com pari sons between the hyro project and
its conventional alternatives (combustion turbines) difficult.
Thus, the Susitna Project will be evaluated in the light of its effect
upon the mix of alternatives in the power system and any possible
deferment of capital expenditures for other facilities. To properly
take into account the capacity variations of the project, its
operation within a power system will be analyzed on a monthly, or at
least a seasonal, basis. More detailed analyses could be performed to
define exact operating procedures, but such detail is not justified in
a long-term planning study.
(f) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $30,000
(g) Schedule
Weeks 26 through 40
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Subtask 1.05 -Expansion Sequence Impact Assessments
(a) Objective
AS-17
Compare from an environmental standpoint, the consequences of
developing the selected alternative expansion scenarios in the Alaska
Railbelt Region, including historical, socioeconomic and other
factors.
(b) Approach
The approach to review and assessment alternatives will be to
primarily utilize existing data, and available aerial photography of
the selected or potential source sites whenever and wherever
sufficient information is already available. However, it may be
necessary to gather 1 imited site-specific data for the assessment,
since the environmental resources of many of the more remote portions
of the study corridor have not been inventoried. The key to this
approach is the use of staff who have an in-depth knowledge of both
fish and wildlife habitat requirements and the short-term and
long-term effects of impact-producing actions of construction and
operation of various facilities in Alaska.
The environmental consequences of developing alternative energy
sources are highly dependent upon numerous factors including energy
resource, collection method, site location characteristics, site fish
and wildlife characteristics, land-use patterns, and facility
construction and operation designs. A thorough assessment of the
impacts of optimum generation expansion mixes is also dependent upon
an understanding of the habitat requirements of local fish and
wildlife during their life history; a knowledge of limiting habitat
factors; and sensitivities such as fish overwintering areas, and
nesting and feeding habitats of endangered or threatened fauna.
The significant impact-producing actions wi 11 vary with the
alternative being assessed. At times, the selected site location will
be the prime factor, while for other alternatives, the short-term or
long-term air quality or water quality perturbations, or wildlife
habitat degradation may be the overriding factor. Some of the more
significant potential concerns are discussed below.
The environmental evaluation of the selected hydroelectric and tidal
power development alternatives (if any) will identify the associated
potential impact issues, and their relative magnitudes. Such issues
will involve the relative sizes of reservoirs and impacts on water
quality and fish and wildlife habitats in particular. The
environmental analysis will be performed on the basis of available
data, which will be compiled for this purpose. For the Task 1
studies, the comparative impact issues associated wtih the Susitna
Project already identified in the current Corps of Engineers EIS, will
be used as the yardstick against which all other alternatives will be
measured. Transmission facilities associated with the hydro
alternative sites will be included in this environmental analysis.
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A5-18
The intensity of analysis required for comparison of the hydroelectric
alternatives will be less than that required for the primary
alternative. Field investigations will not be undertaken to identify
the potential magnitude of impacts of the alternatives.
With coal-fired power plants, such as those associated with the Beluga
and Nenana fields, the collection of large quantities of coal through
surface mining would create environmental concerns. These concerns
are related primarily to large-scale, long-tenn habitat alterations
affecting fish and wildlife. The operation of coal-fired plants would
also create problems relating to air quality, cooling water
discharges, and run-off from fly ash ponds. However, plants can be
designed to successfully mitigate these concerns.
New gas or oil-fired power plants require construction of pipelines
that at least lead to short-tenn concerns associated with river
crossings, wetlands disturbance, and habitat alterations. On-site
facilities can cover large acreages, and operation can create air
quality problems related to nitrogen emissions and winter steam
plumes.
Wood-produced energy would also cause air quality problems such as
those currently found in the Fairbanks area. Such plants would
furthermore require clear-cutting of vast acreages of timber. This
is not considered environmentally wise due to the slow regeneration
times required for timber production and hence would lead to long-term
wildlife habitat alterations. Potentially severe impacts to stream
habitats and local fish populations would also result.
(c) Land and Water Use
Land ownership in the vicinity of the alternatives will be identified
as federal (including agency jurisdiction), state, private and Native
Corporation. Land ownership status may be in transition due to the
Alaska-Native Claims Settlement Act and State Selection under the
Statehood Act. Land management plans and regulations affecting
alternatives will be evaluated. The various federal and state
agencies, and some Native Corporations will have land classification
and management systems governing activities that are allowed on those
lands and waters being managed. Stipulations concerning allowable
activities could affect the feasibility of alternatives to Susitna.
Land and water use patterns (historical, current and proposed) will be
documented in order to evaluate impacts and potential use conflicts
posed by Susitna alternatives.
Unique features in the vicinity of alternative projects, such as
recreation areas and aesthetic/visual resources, also will be
identified. The presence of popular recreation areas or unusual
aesthetic quality may present impact and feasibility problems,
particularly when on public lands.
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A5-19
{d) Socioeconomic Characteristics
Demographic data, historic, current and projected, will be evaluated
to estimate the impact created by the influx of construction and
operations work forces. Employment characteristics of the work force
in the vicinity of alternative projects will also help evaluate
positive and negative impacts created by project implementation. This
information would include employment and unemployment by region and
skill classification, and wage rates (also regional and skill
specific).
Financial characteristics of any borough or municipal governments in
alternative project areas will be considered. Tax revenue, mill
rates, and tax base data will help estimate potential impacts.
Housing characteristics, such as available stock (including rental
units) and vacancy rates, will be utilized for impact evaluation.
Community infrastructure could be impacted by implementing
alternatives to the Susitna project. Current loads on infrastructural
systems (i.e., electricity, water, sewage) service areas, and system
capacity will therefore be considered.
Transportation systems potentially affected by project alternatives
will be identified. Data will include current traffic estimates,
capacity, area of service, and intermodal connections.
Sociocultural characteristics could be an issue in several project
areas. Life style, ethnic traditions and subsistence use patterns of
biological resources will be documented.
(e) Archaeological and Historical Resources
Existing archaeological and historical sites will be inventoried in
alternative project areas, as available data allow. The State
Historical Preservation Office maintains a statewide file of known
sites and will be utilized in this effort.
(f) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (TES) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$ 90,000
45,000
3,000
Total Subtask 1.05 ••••••••••••••••••• $138,000
(g) Schedule
Weeks 30 through 45
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Subtask 1.06 -Power Alternatives Study Report
(a) Objective
A5-20
Prepare power alternatives study report for Susitna Hydroelectric
Project.
(b) Approach
The power alternatives study report will address:
-Load forecasting for the Rail belt Region
Selection of alternative energy and/or power generation scenarios
-Evaluation of viable expansion sequence scenarios
-Recommended expansion sequence
The report will document the findings of Subtasks 1.01 through 1.05
and incorporate the transmittal prepared under Subtask 1.02.
(c) Discussion
This report will seek to address the fundamental issues of the "need
for power" and selection of the optimum future Railbelt Region
electrical power supply scenario through the year 2005. If the
Susitna Project is to be justified as a viable and licensable
development, this report has to provide the fundamental basis for such
justification. The report will initially be prepared in draft fonn
for submission to Alaska Power Authority for review, and subsequently
made available to all concerned parties for comment and discussion
under the Task 12 Public Participation Program.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $12,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 40 through 48
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LOAD SELECTION
FORECASTING OF
METHODOLDGY 1-------_.,. ALTERNATIVES
EXPANSION
1-------.... SEQUENCE
IMPACT
~--r---r---f
101 1 o 1 10 t.o3 1 20 1 35
DEVELOPMENT OF L..----+-1 SELECTION OF
LDAD GROWTH VIABLE
L-------.1 SCENARIOS 1---------+-l EXPANSION
ASSESSMENTS
1.o5 1 3o J 45
POWER
ALTERNATIVES
1-------+-~sTuov
REPORT 1-1.0-2-r--la-....-12-6--f SEQUENCES
1.04 I 2s I 4o a.os J 4o 1 4a
-4---I--SUBTASK TITLE
./~---1-SUBTASK NO.
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""" '---COMPLETION WEEK
START WEEK
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE Tl.l: TASK I LOGIC
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AS-21
A.5.3 -TASK 2: SURVEYS AND SITE FACILITIES
(i) Task Objectives
To provide for safe, cost effective, and environmentally acceptable
logistical support of all project field activities; to conduct those
surveys necessary to furnish data for use in other subtasks which
must be performed prior to licensing; to resolve real estate issues
associated with the proposed project in sufficient detail to permit
preparation of Exhibit F of the FERC license application; and to
undertake initial studies of proposed reservoir areas and access
roads.
(ii) Task Output
The primary outputs of this task will be major portions of certain
exhibits required for FERC 1 icense application and data which will be
necessary inputs for many of the remaining exhibits. Specifically,
this task will contribute to Exhibit D (demonstrating evidence of
compliance with State water and land use laws), Exhibit E (providing
water rights data and plans for perfecting rights to use water for
project operation), Exhibit F (statement of land ownership). In
addition, surveys and mapping will be essential portions of Exhibit J
(general project map) and Exhibit K (detailed project map showing
boundaries, survey data, 1 and ownership, and feature 1 ocat ions). In
addition to the data collection and exhibit preparation, a number of
tangible products will be acquired or constructed and will generally
be suitable for use during the post-application phase and beyond.
In this latter category are included camp facilities, airfield, and
similar semi-permanent items.
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 2.01 -Provision for Land Use Payments and Directed
Inspection Services
Subtask 2.02 -Provision of Field Camps and Associated Logistic
Support
Subtask 2.03 -Design and Construction of Airstrip
Subtask 2.04 -Land Status Research
Subtask 2.05 -Land Acquisition Analysis
Subtask 2.06 -Right-of-Entry
Subtask 2.07 -Site Specific Surveys
Subtask 2.08 -Aerial Photography and Photogrammetric Mapping
~~~~RIL_ ______ S_u_b_t_a_sk __ 2_._0_9_-__ C_o_n_tr_o_l __ N_e-tw_o_r_k __ S-ur_v_e_y_s ____________________________ ~
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A5-22
Subtask 2.10 -Access Roads
Subtask 2.11 -Map and Photo Search
Subtask 2.12 -Field Reconnaissance of Reservoir Areas
Subtask 2.13 -Marketability and Disposal Study for Reservoir Area
Subtask 2.14 -Cost Estimates for Reservoir Clearing
Subtask 2.15 -Slope Stability and Erosion Studies
Subtask 2.16 -Hydrographic Surveys
(iv) Subtask Scope of Statements
Section A.4 of this plan of study provides a logistical plan describ-
ing measures, procedures, considerations, and responsibilities
incident to the conduct of effective logistic operations. Subtasks
2.01 through 2.03 are generally concerned with implementation of
field operations under that plan in a safe, economical, and
environmentally acceptable manner. Task 13, Administration, provides
for an in-state project office as the essential link between field
operations and concurrent efforts to be undertaken in Alaska and
elsewhere. This project office will not only facilitate essential
procurement, communication, and coordination of logistical support,
but also it will ensure that data generated in the field is properly
and expeditiously routed to various points where it will be
processed, interpeted, and evaluated.
Subtasks 2.04 through 2.06 deal with real estate aspects. It is by
no means clear at the time of preparation of this plan of study just
which of several land interests will predominate at any given stage
in the study process. Thus, it is all the more essential that
careful attention to real estate details be paid early and
continuously.
Land survey activities are generally provided for in Subtask 2.07
through 2.09 and hydrographic survey in Subtask 2.16. Only such
mapping and control as is necessary for license application will be
accomplished in the initial 30 months after notice to proceed is
given. It follows, then, that some survey activity may be expected
to occur in succeeding months prior to granting of the license.
Subtasks 2.10 through 2.15 deal in general with lands whose current
conditions will be permanently changed in the event that the proposed
project is ultimately constructed. Technical implications of actual
conditions discerned along alternative access roads and within
potential reservoir areas are assessed in this group of subtasks.
Surveys and route selection studies associated with transmission
lines are separately provided for under Task 8.
It is clear that a certain risk is associated with incurring the
relatively large expenditures in accomplishing this task.
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A5-23
It is entirely possible that concurrent efforts dealing, for example,
with possible alternatives under Task 1 or environmental impacts
under Task 7 may lead to a decision at the end of the twelfth month
to abandon the Susitna Hydroelectric Project in favor of some other
choice or combination of choices for satisfaction (or, indeed, if
appropriate, consciously forcing growth limits through nonsatis-
faction) of forecasted load requirements. We will minimize the risk
insofar as practicable by delaying those field subtasks which can
reasonably be delayed as long as possible without jeopardizing plans
for filing the FERC license application by mid-1982.
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Subtask 2.01 -Provision for Non-Discretionary Payments
(a) Objective
Make explicit prov1s1on for certain budget items not subject to
discretion of the engineer.
{b) Approach
A5-24
Several budget items are included in this plan of study to account for
APA 1 s directions in that regard. Specifically, the costs noted in
subparagraph (d) below account for land use payments to affected Native
Corporations in the amount of $36,000 per year, full time inspection
services to protect native interests in the amount of $3,000 per month,
and funds for study coordination and review by APA in the amount of
$100,000 per year.
(c) Discussion
The APA Request for Proposal, dated June 25, 1979, directed that the
above items be included. The requirement to fund a full time Susitna
Coordinator in the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and to set aside
$1 million for an independent cost estimate and seismic risk analysis
is accounted for elsewhere in this plan of study.
(d) Level of Effort
Land Use Payments •••••••••••••••••••••• $90,000
Full Time Inspection ••••••••••••••••••• $90,000
Coordination and Review (APA) ••••••••• $250,000
Total Subtask 2.01 •••••••••••••••••••• $430,000*
(e) Schedule
Throughout entire period.
* These directed costs are entered as a separate item from other costs
listed in cost tables at other points in the study.
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A5-25
Subtask 2.02 -Provision of Field Camps and Associated Logistic Support
(a) Objectives
Provide acceptable living accommodations for assigned field personnel
and necessary visitors and provide a base for field operations in the
most economic and efficient manner.
(b) Approach
There will be two camps, a permanent base camp at Watana and an over-
flow camp at Devil Canyon. All the design work and the procurement of
modular units and attendant life support system (power plants, water
plant, sewage treatment plant and communications system) will be done
immediately after contract award. The Watana camp will be sized to
accommodate a maximum of 60 people and its layout will be based on
previous camps designed for Alaskan conditions. This "off the shelf,.
approach will help reduce costs. The modular units and equipment for
both the Watana and Devil Canyon camps will then be transported over-
land from Denali Highway to the Fog Lake area. The Watana camp will be
erected in late February, 1980 and operations will begin by March,
1980. This camp will be the main base of field operations as well as
the point of in-depth study of the Watana site and the surrounding
.area.
The equipment for the 20-man Devil Canyon tent camp will be transported
in May by helicopter from the Fog Lake area and the camp will be fully
operational by June, 1980. This camp will provide temporary housing
for crews working in the area.
The Watana camp will be operated and maintained on a continual basis
from March, 1980 through June, 1982. The Devil Canyon camp will be
occupied as required by the field support schedule (June through
September, 1980 and 1981). This camp will be moth-balled during the
time the camp is not being utilized.
The Watana camp will be constructed from 33 10 1 x 24 1 modular units and
will have complete water and sewer treatment systems. It will have
warehouse, shop, recreational, office, food service, laundry, and fuel
storage facilities. It will also have sheltered electrical generators
and an incinerator. The dormitory, food service, and recreation build-
ings will be interconnected with Arctic walkways.
The Devil Canyon camp will consist of ten 2-man tents and a kitchen
tent, all with wooden floors. There will be showers and incinerator
toilets (no sewer treatment plant), electrical generators, a water
system, and food storage and fuel storage facilities.
A variety of cost comparison alternatives will be evaluated prior to
start of field operations. Should any of these alternatives be found
to be cost effective, they will be included in the field plan. The
alternatives to be evaluated include:
(1) Utilizing the High Lake Lodge in place of the 20-man tent camp at
Devil Canyon.
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A5-26
(2) Transportation of camp modules by Hercules Aircraft in lieu of
overland cat-train (two sub-alternatives will be evaluated --
truck or rail transportation to Palmer or Talkeetna, then air
transportation to the site versus direct air transport from
Anchorage to Fog Lake Site).
(3) Utilization of Arctic type sewage treatment plant, with chlori-
nated effluent, in lieu of a sewer treatment plant with a lagoon
system for waste water effluent. This approach will depend upon
obtaining the necessary permit for the Arctic type plant.
(4) Utilizing Fog Lake as the water supply in place of drilling a
water well •
(5) The elimination of some or all the Arctic walkways and reconfigur-
ing the camp to minimize exposure to the most severe ambient
conditions.
(6) Burying solid waste instead of incineration if the proper permit
can be obtained.
A potential way to reduce program cost is through a consolidated
logistics effort. Consolidated logistics management would insure the
minimal utilization of supply aircraft and vehicles, consistent with
the field schedule and quantity of materials to be transported. We
will continuously monitor and adjust the overall logistics operation to
minimize costs and environmental disruption. The principal Acres
representative (Chief Engineer for Alaskan Operations--CEAO) will have
responsibility and authority for such efforts and may, if economics can
be effected thereby, designate a single logistics manager from within
the Acres team.
(c) Discussion
It will be noted that meeting the planned FERC application target at 30
months after notice to proceed requires the earliest possible commence-
ment of field operations. Certain key assumptions implicit in our plan
for establishment of a permanent camp near the Watana damsite prior to
break-up include the following:
(1) Funds will be made available immediately after contract award to
permit expedited procurement of "long lead" items.
(2) The important requirement for archeological reconnaissance and
associated clearances prior to disturbing natural conditions
generally cannot be satisified until snow cover is gone from the
proposed camp area. We assume that the first stage camp construc-
tion and initial operation will be conducted in areas previously
checked out for earlier Corps of Engineers activities. Only so
much of the semi-permanent camp near Watana as can be erected on
archeologically cleared land will be installed initially.
Remaining modules and supplies to be brought in while the ground
is frozen will be stored until after break-up. Archeological
reconnaissance to permit expansion will be undertaken as a matter
of priority as soon as conditions are favorable for that work.
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A5-27
(3) Ownership for project lands will have been transferred to Cook
Inlet Region Incorporated prior to commencement of field
activities.
{4) The cooperation of various permitting agencies and organizations
in expediting necessary early permits will be secured.
The camp accommmodation requirements in a remote Alaskan environment
cannot be underestimated. The size of camp proposed has been
determined as the minimum size necessary to undertake the required
field work (surveys, geotechnical exploration, hydrologic and seismic
monitoring, and environmental studies) in the proposed time frame. The
experience and knowledge of the Acres -R&M-Moolin team in preparing
estimates for camp requirements is unrivalled.
The capital cost of erecting a semi-permanent camp capable of accommo-
dating peak loads of 60 people or so and average loads of 40 to 50 is
significant. Whereas the initial contract will cover a period of only
30 months, it may be anticipated that field activities will be required
on a continuous basis for some years after license application is made.
Thus, for purposes of fairly allocating costs, the estimated level of
effort provided in subparagraph (d) below allows for transferring a
salvage value (at the end of the first 30 months) to the follow-on
contract.
(d) Level of Effort
Camp Facilities and Operations (CIRI/H&N) ••••••• $2,953,600
Air Transportation (FMA) •••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 510,000
Fuel (CIRI/H&N) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 290,000
Coordination and Management (Acres)*............ -------
Total Subtask 2.02 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $3,753,600
(e) Schedule
Throughout project period •
* These costs have been included in Task 13 (Administration).
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Subtask 2.03 -Design and Construction of Airstrip
(a) Objective
A5-28
Provide responsive and reliable resupply and emergency service capa-
bility with minimum environmental degradation.
(b) Approach
During the earliest stages (the initial winter months) an accessible
frozen lake will be cleared to allow access to the study site by
Hercules aircraft. As soon as conditions permit and archeological
reconnaissance is conducted, construction of a 5,000 foot gravel
a i rst rip wi 11 commence.
Early development of a properly sized and designed Airstrip is expected
to expedite subsequent operations at the project site. Site selection
can best be obtained through a repetitive process of evaluation,
beginning with several alternatives and eliminating those that do not
meet the necessary requirements.
The scope of work during this portion of work will be by Airphoto
study, aided by evaluation of existing boring logs and topographic
maps. A field check of this study will be made prior to making the
final site selection of the Airstrip site. The design phase is
envisioned as being completed in three stages. The initial stage will
consist of providing tentative drawings for the Airstrip and related
facilities, such as access roads to material sources needed in its
construction. The subsequent phase will provide drawings suitable for
construction purposes as well as a cost estimate for the construction
of the facility. The final design stage will be to provide the
planning and instrumentation of temporary transportation facilities
while the Airstrip is unserviceable, primarily before and during
construction. This final design procedure is necessary to reduce the
overall project time from the Notice to Proceed and the time a full
scale work effort can be accomplished.
Time dependent requirements such as permits, wind direction informa-
tion, archeological studies, and the stockpiling of initial construc-
tion supplies will therefore be started as soon as possible.
The Airstrip will continue to function after FERC license application
has been made. Indeed, assuming that the project is shown to be
viable, the Airstrip will continue to serve throughout the period
d11ring which the proposed dam is constructed (and beyond that, perhaps
during operation of the project some years hence). It follows that
design, arrangement, and construction will be accomplished in such a
way that later expansion or permanent surfacing will be possible.
(c) Discussion
The cost and efficiency of work crews, as well as their safety is
dependent on providing proper equipment and manpower at the work site.
The objective in providing an Airstrip at the location of work is to
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A5-29
provide these support facilities in such a way that will m1n1mize
degrading the existing environment. Consideration of adverse environ-
mental consequences will be evaluated during the site selection as well
as the size and usage requirements for efficient operations.
Because of land use restrictions limiting overland access (to the
proposed semi-permanent camp facilities) to those months when snow
cover and frozen conditions exist, it will be essential to provide for
resupply and emergency evacuation by air. The use of helicopters for
such purposes is extremely costly and weather conditions prevent
helicopter access far more often than that for fixed wing aircraft.
(The Corps of Engineers• experiences during their most recent drilling
efforts at the Watana site demonstrated that a high number of non-
flight days accrued when helicopters were relied upon exclusfvely. On
the other hand, the successful use of Hercules aircraft during
construction of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) clearly demon-
strated the reliability and responsiveness of that approach). The
Acres team is unique in the sense that the only Hercules aircraft now
operating in Alaska are under the direct control of Frank Moolin
Associates and its sister company. Thus, the Susitna Hydroelectric
Project Studies will benefit from the strong experience gained during
the TAPS support efforts.
The proposed Airstrip bears a remarkable similarity to the type which
certain military engineer battalions must be capable of constructing in
conjunction with military operations. Yet, military engineers seldom
have the opportunity to practice such projects in truly remote, harsh
climate regions because land use restrictions and environmental
concerns frequently preclude such activities. Because the proposed
Susitna project will be undertaken by the State in the interests of the
public, there appears to be no legal constraint associated with
permitting military engineer units to actually undertake design and
construction of the Airstrip. We will explore this alternative as a
possible cost reduction measure.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force {R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••••••.••• $100,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) ••••••••••••• $ 10,000
Total Subtask 2.03 •••••••••••••••••••••••••• $110,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 26
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A5-30
Subtask 2.04 -Land Status Research
(a) Objectives
Identify ownership and other interests in and adjoining the project
area and associated transmission corridors and provide information
needed for power project planning, land acquisition analysis, and for
obtaining rights-of-entry to conduct field studies.
(b) Approach
Ownership information will be gathered from the tax assessor and land
recorder, BLM, the State Division of Lands, and Native Corporations.
Lands will be categorized by general ownership category (private land,
State land, U. S. land, and Native land) and status maps at an appro-
priate scale will be prepared. Other factors affecting land status,
such as third party rights, State or Federal agency designations, or
limited interest rights will be indicated.
(c) Discussion
Cook Inlet Region, Inc. has already collected a substantial portion of
the information required. The cost of completing this task will be
reduced substantially because this information and the corporation's
land status research capability will be utilized.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (CIRI/H&N) •••••••••••••••••••• $15,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) •••••••••• $ 1,000
Total Subtask 2.04 ••••••••••••••••••••••• $16,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 15
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Subtask 2.05 -Land Acquisition Analysis
(a) Objectives
A5-31
Identify lands which must be acquired or for which right-of-way permits
or easements must be obtained and estimate land acquisition costs and
right-of-way permitting requirements.
(b) Approach
Once plans for the siting of all elements of the power project have
been developed, a detailed inventory of private and public lands on
which facilities are to be built will be prepared. Each private land
owner will be identified and the amount and market value of land to be
acquired by either easement or purchase will be estimated. The amount
of public land required will be broken down by agency land holder and
an estimate of the cost of right-of-way permits will be made. Evidence
of title will be secured as needed. All third party rights will be
identified and evaluated in terms of impact on acquisition costs.
(c) Discussion
Cook Inlet Region, Inc. has already collected a sub.stantial portion of
the information required. The cost of completing this task will
therefore be minimized.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (CIRI/H&N) ••••••••••••••••••••• $10,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) ••••••••••• $ 500
Total Subtask 2.05 •••••••••••••••••••••••• $10,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 8 through 20
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Subtask 2.06 -Right-of-Entry
(a) Objectives
A5-32
Provide the information needed to obtain right-of-entry to private
1 ands as required for reconnaissance, surveying, and other field
investigations; acquire necessary rights-of-entry.
{b) Approach
On the basis of the overall field plan, the private lands to be entered
will be determined and the appropriate land owners will be identified.
Permits required for entry and use of public lands will normally be
obtained by CIRI/H&N in response to requirements of individual
investigating teams.
(c) Discussion
Obtaining rights-of-entry will more efficiently be accomplished when
done by one project associate rather than by each individual team
member. This will also assure that the needed rights-of-entry have
been obtained and that no trepass occurs. And beyond that, of course,
it provides a positive means to ensure that redundant applications are
not filed--an important consideration to permitter and permittee
alike.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force {CIRI/H&N) ••••••••••••••••••••• $15,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) ••••••••••• 1,000
Total Subtask 2.06 •••••••••••••••••••••••• $16,000
(e) Schedule
Throughout project period with most emphasis during initial six
months.
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Subtask 2.07 -Site Specific Surveys
(a) Objective
A5-33
Provide 11 0n the ground .. surveys of specific areas which require a
higher level of accuracy than can otherwise be obtained through
photogrammetric mapping.
(b) Approach
Two field surveyed cross sections will be obtained at each dam site
consisting, essentially, of an accurate profile perpendicular to the
river on a predefined axis.
The site survey of the Airstrip will be conducted using conventional
survey techniques to establish topography of such accuracy as to allow
construction plans to be prepared. This activity includes the con-
struction lay-out surveys for building of the Airstrip.
The site survey will be required of the temporary camp to facilitate
design of the camp, sewage disposal system and water supply. This
activity is covered under Subtask 2.02.
A site survey at each dam site will be conducted 11 0n the ground .. at a
location contemplated for switchyards-transformer pads to facilitate
the design of those facilities but will not require construction
staking during this study phase.
(c) Discussion
These site specific survey efforts will augment photogrammetric
mapping. They must be conducted reasonably early in the study process
since the results will be required for subsequent design studies and
field construction of certain temporary facilities. Crews involved in
the work will be furnished lodging and air transportation, the costs
for which are separately included under Subtask 2.02. The long exper-
ience of R&M Consultants, Inc., in similar work throughout the State
has resulted in R&M•s acquisition of equipment tailored for use in
remote, harsh environments as well as in the develop of field pro-
cedures well suited to the instant requirement.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••••• $60,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) •••••••• $ 3,000
Total Subtask 2.07 ••••••••••••••••••••• $63,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 9 through 12, and 22 through 26
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Subtask 2.08 -Aerial Photography and Photogrammetric Mapping
(a) Objective
A5-34
Provide contour mapping of both Devil Canyon and Watana Dam and
Reservoir sites, photography and contour mapping of access corridors,
photography of transmission corridor, photography to be used by
geologists in terrain unit mapping, photography to be used in the
environmental studies of the project area and photography of the
Susitna River downstream to Talkeetna for use by hydrologists.
Approach
Partial mapping of the Watana Dam Site has previously been accomplished
through efforts of the Army Corps of Engineers. Photography exists on
the Devil Canyon Dam Site but no contour mapping has been
accomplished.
The Corps of Engineers' effort, as stated above, will be evaluated and
augmented, as required, by additional mapping of the dam sites at a
scale ~f 1" = 200' with a contour interval of 2 feet.
The reservoir sites, camp and airport sites, switchyard sites, access
corridors, transmission corridor and lower Susitna River downstream to
Talkeetna will be paneled (targeted), survey tied to horizontal and
vertical control and aerial photographed. Contour mapping by photo-
grammetrical methods will be performed at a mapping scale of:
Watana and Devil Canyon Reservoir Sites---1" = 400' with 10' contours
Watana and Devil Canyon Dam Sites---------1" = 200' with 2' contours
Alternative Access Routes-----------------1" = 400' with 10' contours
Field Camp and Airstrip-------------------1" = 400' with 10' contours
Certain activities essential to eventual detailed design will be
deferred until after license application has been filed. These include
contour mapping by photogrammetrical methods at mapping scales of:
Switchyards----------------------------~--1'' = 200' with 5' contours
Selected Access Route---------------------1" = 200' with 5' contours
Selected Transmission Route---------------1" = 200' with 5' contours
The lower Susitna River and transmission corridor will be photographed
and photogrammetrically profiled prior to license application but no
contour mapping is anticipated until later in the program.
All aerial photography that is to be used for contour mapping of
1" = 200' must be taken during the spring or fall of the year when snow
is not present on the ground and when deciduous vegetation is without
leaves. Fortunately, the pre-application requirements in this area are
relatively modest.
Existing contour mapping previously performed by the Corps of Engineers
must be correlated to accurate vertical datum as current datum used was
determined from V.A.B.M. (Vertical Angle Bench Mark) and is only
accurate to plus or minus 15 feet.
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A5-35
(c) Discussion
The aerial photography and mapping program described herein is con-
sidered the minimum necessary to satisfactorily prepare necessary
exhibits for FERC license application. Even so, the costs of such
efforts are not insignificant. Thus, any additional measures which may
serve to further reduce costs are important. In this regard, we will
make a detailed and comprehensive assessment of all photography flown
to date by the Corps of Engineers and others to ensure that duplication
of previous efforts does not occur.
We are aware that some unprocessed aerial photographic data has been
call ected in the past two years by the Corps. Its useful ness for
partial satisfaction of the subtask objective has yet to be evaluated.
The output of this subtask will produce much of the base map and other
data required for FERC Exhibits J and K, general and detailed project
maps respectively. The requirement for 10• contours is explicit under
FERC regulations for Exhibit K. Should new regulations relax that
rule, effort will be adjusted accordingly.
(d) Level of Effort
{i) Prior to license application:
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••• $500,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) •••••• $ 25,000
Total Subtask 2.08 ••••••••••••••••••• $525,000
(ii) Subsequent to license application •••• $598,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 3 through 39
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Subtask 2.09 -Control Network Surveys
(a) Objective
A5-36
Provide a more frequent interval of horizontal and vertical survey
control than currently exists in the project area.
(b) Approach
Both u.s.c. & G.S. and recently conducted private control network
schemes will be expanded for use on site specific surveys, photo
control surveys and cadastral surveys of otherwise protracted township
and section surveys. The control network will also be used to expand
State Plane and Universal Transverse Mercator grid values to all
project surveys.
The frequency of high order survey monuments of known precise hori-
zontal values are all but non-existent in the project area.
Utilizing "one second" theodolites, medium to long range electronic
distance measuring devices and helicopter supported ground crews, a
chain of high accuracy control monuments will be established on each
side of the river basin from the upper reaches of Watana Reservoir site
to the lower end of Devil Canyon. This network will serve as the
"spine" of all subsequent survey activity and mapping effort.
A precise level circuit will be run extending from the existing u.s.c.
& G.S. circuit up to the Parks Highway-railroad, up river through both
the Devils Canyon Dam site and the Watana Dam site and tying to the
existing u.s.c. & G.S. circuit along the Denali Highway.
This level circuit will be the first precise level circuit ever run in
the area and will be the basis for all vertical elevations used on the
project.
(c) Discussion
It is worth pointing out that a control network survey will be required
in the project area regardless of whether or not the Susitna Hydro-
electric Project is ever constructed. Native land claims selections
line both banks of the Susitna River and any transfers of lands under
the Native Land Claims Act will necessarily be provisional subject to
proper survey. We assume that this required effort will be federally
funded.
(d) Level of Effort
Assumed to be undertaken by Federal Government--no costs included.
(e) Schedule
Weeks 5 through 30
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A5-37
Subtask 2.10 -Access Roads
(a) Objectives
Define alternative access routes; evaluate technical, economic, and
environmental factors for each; and recommend best alternative.
{b) Approach
Access roads will be required during construction to dam sites,
quarries and borrow pits. Effort will be made to minimize grades,
number and size of borrow pits, unwanted access, and limit environ-
mental constraints at the smallest cost and time to the project.
Geological studies and surveys are discussed under other task
headings.
For this portion of the work it is anticipated that three separate
routes will be considered in detail. Two of these routes will
originate from the Park•s Highway and extend to the east to the dam
site. One route will follow the north bank of the Susitna River to the
dam site. The other route will follow the south bank of the Susitna
River. The third route to be considered will come from the.northeast
from the Denali Highway. It is further anticipated that one of these
routes will be selected to be considered as a possible railroad access
route. In addition, a sub-alternative to be considered in the Parks
Highway routings will be one which envisions the establishment of a
railhead (near Gold Creek, for example) as the western terminus of the
access road.
The preliminary study portion of this phase of the work will entail
reviewing photos and existing maps of the possible access routes as
well as the complete review of all work already completed by the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers. Once this work is completed, it is antici-
pated that all three corridors selected for possible access routes will
have low level aerial photography flown. Once this photography is
available, detailed analyses of the photos coupled with existing data
will result in initial route selection. During this process those
problem areas identified by the low level aerial photography will be
investigated in the field to determine solutions. Following this work
cross comparisons of preliminary design will be accomplished so as to
finalize selection of the best access to the project. Environmental
data collection and impacts analysis of alternative routes--and, in
more detail, of the selected route--will be accomplished as a part of
Task 7-Environmental Studies. Sufficient detail will be developed to
permit preparation of a preliminary cost estimate. Selection of a best
route will consider all aspects and will draw heavily as well on inputs
from the public participation program outlined in Task 12.
Subsequent to license application, full control will be established
along the access route that has been selected and once again low level
aerial photos will be flown and mapping will be accomplished to a five
foot interval at a scale of l-inch = 200-feet. Once this information
has been obtained, the detailed design of an alignment within the route
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A5-38
corridor will be accomplished. In conjunction with this detailed
alignment study, possible material sites will also be investigated.
Once the final alignment has been established, the drilling program to
establish geotechnical and geological criteria will be initiated. Upon
the completion of that phase, further investigations will be necessary
to remedy any problems discovered by the geotechnical information.
After this phase is completed the final costing for the selected
alignment with the proposed plan and profile sheets and a written
report will be presented.
(c) Discussion
The selection of access roads involves consideration of diverse factors
and neither technical ease of development nor economic considerations
alone will necessarily be the deciding factor. Indeed, fundamental
questions regarding eventual plans for controlling access to the
project and the fragility of the environment itself will be extremely
important. In this regard, an access road which connects only with a
railhead (to be established, for example, near Gold Creek) would better
facilitate controlling visitor access than would a connection with any
of the highways. There is little doubt that conflicting interests will
need to be addressed. It is certain that Native villages and the Cook
Inlet Region, who will eventually acquire surface and subsurface rights
in the project area, will have to be heeded. It is certain, too, that
the impacts on local fish and game populations will have to be weighed
and assessed. In short, this subtask will provide for the collection
of engineering data, the preparation of preliminary economic data, the
evaluation of environmental data collected on other tasks, and the
selection of the apparent best choice when all factors are considered
in their proper perspectives.
(d) Level of Effort
(i) Prior to Application:
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••• $150,000
Coordination, Evaluation in Light
of Environmental Impacts, and _
Review (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••• $ 35,000
Total Subtask 2.10 •••••••••••••••••• $185,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 52 through 100
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Subtask 2.11 -Map and Photo Search
(a) Objective
A5-39
Conduct a preliminary assessment of the reservoir areas as the basis
for identifying proper locations for pursuing an optimum field
reconnaissance program.
(b) Approach
All aerial photography, sattelite photography, existing topographic
maps, geo 1 ogi c maps, and other ava i1 ab 1 e fie 1 d information wi 11 be
reviewed by selected members of the project team. This review will
concentrate on the identification of particular areas which require
verification or evaluation in the field during a site inspection.
Based upon this review, a program for conduct of subsequent field
reconnaissance efforts will be planned in detail.
(c) Discussion
Depending upon ultimately selected dam height and sites, reservoirs can
be upwards to 100 miles in length. It is neither necessary nor practi-
cal in the pre-licensing phase to conduct detailed extensive investiga-
tions of every square foot in this extensive area. Even so, a proper
assessment of the implications of inundation in the project area will
be necessary. Based upon this assessment, cost estimates involved in
preparing lands for eventual inundation can be derived. In addition,
there may be ways and means to reduce environmental impact if judicious
use of materials recovered from reservoir areas is planned in the
project construction. ·
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $4,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) •••••••••••• $1,000
Total Subtask 2.11 ••••••••••••••••••••••••• $5,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 16 through 26
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A5-40
Subtask 2.12 -Field Reconnaissance of Reservoir Area
(a) Objectives
Make on-the-ground checks to verify adequacy of information obtained
during the map and photo search; more precisely delineate dimensions of
those portions of the reservoir area which are likely to require
special attention during the ultimate construction of the project.
(b) Approach
The field reconnaissance team will be furnished with marked-up maps
produced during Subtas.k 2.11. By making on-the-ground inspections, the
team will be able to ascertain the extent of clearing required as well
as estimate size, nature and density of various trees to be removed.
In addition, some initial estimates will be made of soil types,
particularly as they would affect slope stability. To the extent that
surficial inspection will reveal it, the field team will seek borrow
areas in reservoirs in order to minimize eventual environmental impact
outside reservoir areas.
(c) Discussion
A portion of the field reconnaissance effort can actually be accom-
plished by helicopter, as the reconnaissance team overflies reservoir
areas and checks the general shape and location of vegetative growth to
be removed, verifying that it has been accurately reflected in the
initial subtask. ·
Some on-the-ground verifications will be required. The whole effort
insofar as field reconnaissance is concerned, is primarily geared
toward producing a reasonable estimate of the effort required in
preparing various areas for eventual innundation. In this regard, for
example, it becomes important to verify the size, nature, diameter of
trees because marketability will be studied. The question of slope
stability and protection is naturally pertinent since the reservoir
level particularly behind Watana Dam is expected to fluctuate on an
annual basis by as much as 150 feet. This latter question is
separately address in Subtask 2.15.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••••••• $5,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) •••••••••• $ 500
Total Subtask 2.12 ••••••••••••••••••••••• $5,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 26 through 34
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Subtask 2.13 -Marketability and Disposal Study for Reservoir Area
(a) Objectives
A5-41
Study alternative means for disposing of vegetative material to be
removed from the reservoir area.
(b) Approach
Enquiries will be made of various companies dealing in timber in Alaska
with a view toward determining the extent to which timber harvested
from the proposed reservoir areas may be marketable. In the event that
,the costs of recovery exceed market values, an assessment will be made
of intangible benefits which may still suggest that attempting to sell
cut timber is the appropriate option. Other alternatives for disposing
of materials to be removed will be considered, to include burial as
well as burning. Native villages whose lands border or actually
overlap with proposed reservoir areas will be consulted during the
course of the study with a view toward seeking their desires on timber
disposal.
(c) Discussion
It is important to note that economics will not be the only determinant
in the evaluation of alternative means for disposing of vegetative
materials. Indeed, ultimate disposition may be directed far more by
other factors than by apparent least cost alone. Even so, for purposes
of estimating costs for licensing, it will be sufficient to represent
the probable least cost method of undertaking the work. Native
villages owning surface rights to the affected areas will be directly
affected by this work. CIRI will coordinate the input of the
villages.
Data gathered during the previous subtask regarding sizes, types and
quantities of trees as well as slope conditions and general accessi-
bility will be used. Alternatives such as helicopter logging,
construction of logging roads and use of hovercraft will be considered.
There is a distinct and important interface between this study and
environmental studies conducted in the same area. Summary impacts will
be described to indicate the most serious consequences of burial,
burning, and removing. While data collection during previous subtasks
will have been accomplished during the summer period, the marketability
and disposal study itself can be conducted at any time thereafter.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (CIRI) ••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 9,800
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 1,900
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••• $ 4,800
Total Subtask 2.13 •••••••••••••••••••••• $16,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 34 to 48
~----------------------------------------------------------~
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A5-42
Subtask 2.14 -Cost Estimates for Reservoir Clearing
(a) Objective
Determine reservoir clearing costs.
(b) Approach
This subtask is not independent of the marketability study which
precedes it in this Plan of Study. For each marketing alternative,
there could be a different clearing approach. Thus, a series of
successive iterations of cost estimates will be necessary until the
proper combination of marketing approach and its related clearing
technique has been found. An estimate will then be made of the costs
of doing the clearing so that the net profit or loss on timber market-
ing can be determined.
(c) Discussion
It will be necessary during this task to separate clearing costs for
reservoirs associated with each of the proposed dams. This will permit
subsequent evaluations of a range of alternative phasing for separate
dams in the system.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••••• $7,500
Total Subtask 2.14 •••••••••••••••••••••••• $7,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 34 to 48
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Subtask 2.15 -Slope Stability and Erosion Studies
(a) Objectives
A5-43
Estimate the extent to which cleared slopes will maintain stability;
estimate the risk that continued reservoir operation will cause one or
more slopes to fail; and estimate costs of minimizing slope failure
risks.
(b) Approach
Field data collected during the reconnaissance under Subtask 2.11 will
be used as the basis for analyzing the potential for slope stability
problems. To the extent that such problems appear to exist, alterna-
tive means of slope protection will be considered. It will be assumed
that slope protection will be required if there is a danger of failure
during continued operation.
(c) Discussion
Risk estimates developed during this study will be used ultimately in
the risk analysis to ensure that all potential difficulties have been
accounted for. The costs of providing appropriate slope protection
necessarily become a part of the total project cost estimate to be
considered ultimately in determining project financibility and
viability.
Subsequent to submission of the license application, much more detailed
and vigorous erosion control studies will be required to minimize
damage caused by a concentrated flow of water over newly constructed
slopes or in areas where the natural vegetative cover has been
removed. The objective of this post-application task will be to issue
recommendations and deliniate problem areas where an added degree of
caution should be exercised. A two part study is contemplated to
fulfill these needs. This task will be limited to the general site
earthwork and is not intended to address erosion of the downstream
channel of the dam site.
Input from the first phase of the detailed erosion study will come from
an evaluation of soil types obtained from project test borings and
laboratory test data. Air photo studies will also be used. It is
presently anticipated that sufficient number of test borings will have
been drilled in other project tasks to accomplish this study without
additional test borings. Nevertheless, samples of surficial soil may
be collected for identification and classification purposes, and
laboratory tests may be performed.
A report describing areas of varying degrees of erosion susceptability
will be prepared. Some of the factors that will be considered in this
evaluation will be the soil type and its consistency. Inclusive in
this report will be a discussion of erosion control for general site
grading.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $8,200
(e) Schedule
Weeks 47 to 54
A5-44
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Subtask 2.16 -Hydrographfc Surveys
(a) Objective
A5-45
Provide field and aerial survey data relating to the river gradient and
cross sectional configuration of the active flood plain.
(b) Approach
Through the use of deferential level circuits, 60 miles of river will
be profiled from the lower portion of Devil Canyon, downstream, to the
confluence of the Susitna, Talkeetna and Chulitna Rivers near the town
of Talkeetna.
Pre-set picture panels for aerial photogrammetry will be tied to the
profile level circuit for later use in river cross sections.
Cross sections of the river•s active flood plain will be measured at
approximately one mile intervals and based on elevations established
during river profiling.
The true interval and relationship of river cross sections to the river
and other cross sections will be determined photogrammetrically and
geometrically from pre-set picture panels (crosses) that can be
identified in the aerial photos.
(c) Discussion
Careful study of downstream hydrographic conditions is a vital part of
the total data call ecti on effort, particularly because project operat-
ion will produce changes in the flow regime. Subsequent environmental
studies will rely on the data produced here for use in the study of
potential impacts on fisheries as well as on moose browse now growing
in certain low areas subject to regular inundation when the project
operates. In addition, as design studies progress, determinations will
be made as to the need for re-regulation structures.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $245,000
Coordination and Review (Acres) •••••••••••• $ 13,000
Total Subtask 2.16 ••••••••••••••••••••••••• $258,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 5 through 17 and 36 through 48
PROJECT
OFFICE
OPENS
NOTICE
TO
PROCEED
NOV'79
-...
DESIGN CAMPS, PLACE
ORDERS, PREPARE BLM
PLANS, OBTAIN PERMITS
PREPARE AFFIRMATIVE
ACTION PLANS
PACK
TRAIN
JUN 'so
DEVIL CANYON
TENT CAMP
OPERATES
SEP'80 JUN'81
DEVIL CANYON
TENT CAMP
OPERATES
SEP'81
JUN '82 , ,, ,,
;r-------~--------------~----------~---------------L------------------~-
ERECT CAMP /
CLEAR WINTER
,,
STUDY
RESUPPLY
ALTERNATIVES
AIRSTRIP WATANA CAMP OPERATES
ON LAKE '"""'
1------..1 \r------.-------.,;.._--..-------..------r--4
FEB'80 j~
-BEGIN
RESUPPLY
CONSTRUCT
50001
GRAVEL
AIRSTRIP
LIGHT RESUPPLY
HEAVY
RESUPPLY·
FUEL
NON-PERISH-
ABLES
DRY GOODS
PARTS
ETC.
WINTER
80-81
I
HEAVY
RESUPPLY
FUEL
NON-PERISH-
LIGHT RESUPPLY ABLES
DRY GOODS
PARTS
ETC.
WINTER
80-81
SUBMIT
LICENSE
APPLICATION
LIGHT RESUPPLY
WATANA
CAMP
CONTINUES
LOGIC DIAGRAM
FIELD LOGISTICAL SUPPORT
PROJECT: PLATE
f-------------P 5477.oo T2 I ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED •
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AS-46
A.5.4 -TASK 3: HYDROLOGY
(i) Task Objectives
To undertake and report on all hydrologic, hydraulic, ice,and
climatic studies necessary to complete the feasibility design of the
Susitna project and to provide sufficient documentation for the FERC
license application.
(ii) Task Output
-Data Index System
A data index system listing all the available hydrologic and
climatologic data will be compiled and circulated. Hard copies of
the more relevant data items will be stored in the project office
in Anchorage and copies made available to those requesting it.
All the additional hydrologic and climatologic field data
collected as part of this study will be documented on either
computer printout sheets or typewritten tables.
-Written Sections and Drawings for Inclusion in the FERC
License Application
Exhibit H -proposed reservoir operating rules, predicted
reservoir behavior, and downstream water quality and
flow conditions.
Exhibit I -dependable power flow, critical design low flow
period, flow duration curves and tailwater rating
curves.
Exhibit K -reservoir shorelines for maximum and minimum
reservoir water levels and reservoir water level area
and capacity curves.
Exhibit L -spillway design flood and capacity and freeboard
allowance.
-Hydrologic Appendix to Engineering Report
The detailed technical appendix will contain sections on the
following type of studies: hydrology (resource and floods),
reservoir operation, hydraulic, sediment yield, river morphology,
ice engineering, climatic studies for transmission line design,
and hydrologic and hydraulic studies for the access road.
-A Series of Design Transmittals
These will summarize the pertinent design parameters obtained from
the studies outlined above.
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(iii) List of Subtasks
3.01 -Review of Available Material
3.02 -Field Data Index and Distribution System
3.03 -Field Data Collection and Processing
3.04 -Water Resources Studies
3.05 -Flood Studies
3.06 -Hydraulic and Ice Studies
3.07 -Sediment Yield and River morphology Studies
3.08 -Climatic Studies for Transmission Line
3.09 -Access Road Studies
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
The scheduling of the above subtasks is presented in Section A7,
Plates A.7.1. The activities have been specifically scheduled to
make maximum use of the field data as it becomes available and to
provide the necessary input to the other components of the studies.
Arrangements have been made to enlist the services of Dr. R. Carlson
to act as consultant to Subtask 3.05 (Flood Studies). We proposed
to make similar arrangements wtih Dr. T.E. Osterkamp of the
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska to act on the ice
engineering related aspects of Subtasks 3.06 (Hydraulic and Ice
Studies) and 3.03 (Field Data Collection and Processing).
A detailed discussion of the objectives, the approaches and the
costs and schedules associated with the subtasks follows.
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Subtask 3.01 -Review of Available Material
(a) Task Objectives
Assembly and review of all available reports, maps and studies
relating to hydrologic aspects of the Susitna and neighboring basins,
and abstraction of hydrologic design parameters required for the
planning studies concerned with alternative hydro sites, including
small hydro development.
(b) Approach
All available reports, maps and other pertinent documents will be
obtained and reviewed. Detailed discussions will be held with
individuals and agencies who have been engaged in the past and who are
currently engaged in studies in the Susitna basin and surrounding
areas, (e.g., staff at the University of Alaska, APA, the Hydrology
Section of the U.S. Corps and the USGS office staff in Anchorage).
All information on mean annual flows, seasonal distribution of flow,
reservoir drawdown and firm and installed capacity will be abstracted.
If necessary, manual adjustments will be made to these parameters to
ensure that standardized parameters are available for each site and
that similar approaches are applied to defining firm power and
installed capacity.
(c) Discussion
This task will be performed jointly by R&M and Acres.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••••
4,400
6,100
Total Subtask 3.01 ••••••••••••••••••• $ 10,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 26
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Subtask 3.02 -Field Data Index and Distribution System
(a) Objectives
AS-49
Establish a formal data indexing and distribution system to keep the
study team and all other parties concerned with the project fully
updated on the status of available hydrological and climatologic
data.
(b) Approach
The field data acquisition requirements for the proposed study are
substantial. A data index describing all the currently available
hydrologic and climatologic data will therefore be compiled. All new
data collected by other organizations witl'lin the basin and by the
study team wi 11 be added to ,the index. It is proposed to update the
index every six months.
Hard copies of the available data will be obtained and stored. Copies
of selected items of data will be dispatched to project team members
and other concerned parties on request. All new field data collected
by the project team will be stored on computer facilities and/or in
tabulated form. Copies of the information will be issued to those
requesting it.
(c) Discussion
It will not be possible to obtain and store hard copies of some of the
detailed climatic data collected at the existing complete meteorologic
stations or from the proposed automat\cclimate stations. However,
provision will be made to access these data files and abstract from
them data in summarized form as required by the project staff.
This work will be done by R&M.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••• $ 75,200
(e) Schedule
Setup: Weeks 5 through 13
Operation: Weeks 14 through 130
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AS-50
Subtask 3.03 -Field Data Collection and Processing
(a) Objective
To supplement the available streamflow and climatologic data within
the Susitna River Basin and along the proposed transmission corridors.
(b) Approach
The data co 11 ect ion program outlined in this section has been
specifically tailored to provide adequate input to the design of the
project and to meet the requirements of the FERC licensing procedure.
-Field Data Specifications
It is proposed to produce formal specifications for all the
hydrologic and climatologic field data to be collected. This will
facilitate the detailed planning of the field program and will allow
the various technical disciplines associated with the study to
derive maximum benefit from the data collection program.
During the early stages of the study, data specifications will be
drawn up by a multidisciplinary team responsible for environmental,
hydrologic, hydraulic and ice engineering aspects of the study
during the initial field trips in the area. These specifications
would be submitted to Federal and state agencies for comment to
insure that maximum benefit is derived from the field program.
The specifications will describe items to be collected, list the
type of equipment to be used, the accuracy to be achieved, the
frequency of the observations and the rate at which the information
is to be processed and published.
Discussions will be held with the consultants to the study based in
the University of Alaska to explore the possibility of applying
satellite or high-level aircraft photography to improve accuracy of
estimating the spatial distribution of the snow cover. It should be
noted that no budget has been provided for undertaking this type of
work should it prove feasible •
-Field Data Collection
In order to ensure that adequate data is available for the
feasibility design and license application and subsequent
preliminary engineer-ing, an early start must be made with field data
collection. A tentative program has been developed and is
summarized in Table A.5.1. Provisional locations of data collection
points are shown in Plates T.5.1. and T.5.2.
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A permanent field crew of two people will be assigned to install and
operate the equipment and to retrieve the data. Extensive use will
be made of helicopter transport to access the remote stations. A
fixed wing aircraft will be used in the aerial ice cover surveys and
to service some of the remote snow course and climatic stations.
During the first half of 1981, the field data specifications will be
reviewed and amended in the light of one year•s experience in the
field. It is anticipated that the location of the transmission line
corridor will have been finalized and that some of the automatic
climatic in-cloud icing and freezing rain stations may have to be
relocated. The additional three automatic climatic stations, as
well as the additional in-cloud icing, freezing rain and snow creep
stations will be installed.
-Field Data Processing
Field data processing will be concerned with the following:
abstracting and storing information on the charts obtained from
the automatic climatic stations anq water level recorder
calculating water and sediment discharges from field
observations
laboratory analyses of water quality and sediment samples
documentation of the ice cover observation program
documentation of the snow course data, transmission licensing,
freezing rain, snow creep and glacial measurements.
Some of this data processing will be carried out on a computer, the
remainder will be dealt with manually.
A technician will be responsible on a full-time basis for all the
data processing. Additional technical assistance will be available
as and when required.
(c) Discussion
This task will be undertaken by R&M with review by Acres. Important
aspects associated with Table A.5.1 are as follows:
-The program has been based on the assumption that the Devil Canyon
and Watana Dam site will be the selected project sites.
-The initial location of the climatic stations is based on the
assumption that the transmission route will be located along the
railway linking Fairbanks and Anchorage. Should an alternative
transmission corridor be selected during 1980, the climatic stations
installed along the rail route will be relocated during 1981. This
is not anticipated to cause any delays in the study as the data
obtained during the first year could be used to obtain preliminary
design criteria for the alternative route. Provision has been made
in the cost estimates to cope with relocation of the stations.
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AS-52
-An additional five automatic climatic stations will be held in
reserve during the first year. It is intended to utilize two of
these as spares. The three others will be installed during 1981
along the selected transmission line to improve estimation of the
spatial variation in design parameters.
-Discussions have been held with the staff responsible for the snow
course surveys at the Soil Conservation Service in Anchorage. As a
result the locations of the additional four snow course stations
depicted in Plate A.5.2 were selected. These discussions also
indicated that snow pillows have been operated very successfully and
should function well at the proposed locations. Only a minimum
amount of measurement using conventional snow survey equipment will
be necessary.
-The proposed sediment station at the Vee site (see Plate A5.2) will
not be operated on a continuous basis. A limited number of
observations will be taken and used to assess whether the sediment
discharges at Vee and Gold Creek are correlated. If these analyses
indicate no correlation, then the sediment observations at Vee will
be increased during Phase 2.
-We do not propose to use bed load samplers during this phase of the
work. Although the Heli-Smith type sampler has been successfully
used by the USGS on the Tanana River; it is doubtful whether it
would operate in the coarse sediments of the Susitna. However, this
aspect will be reviewed once more detailed information on the bed
material is available. If deemed practical and useful, a bedload
sampler could be employed during Phase 2 to firm up estimates of
bedload.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) •••••••.•••••••••••••• $
Equipment Purchase •••••••••••••••••••
Helicopter Transport •••••••••••••••••
External Consultant ••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
656,600
208,000
250,000
5,000
15,000
Total Subtask 3.03 ••••••••••••••••••• $1,134,600
(e) Schedule
Field Data Specifications and Review -Weeks 14 through 22
Weeks 70 through 74
Equipment Installation -Weeks 23 through 35
Weeks 75 through 82
Field Data Collection -Weeks 31 through 130
Field Data Processing -Weeks 36 through 130
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A5 .. 53
Subtask 3.04 -Water Resources Studies
(a) Objectives
To develop all the necessary water resource parameters such as monthly
flow data, design low-flow characteristics, etc., at the reservoir
sites and to study long-term reservoir operation.
(b) Approach
(i) Streamflow Extension
Multiple regression analyses will be used to develop monthly
streamflow sequences at the Watana, Devil Canyon and other
sites being considered with the Susitna basin. The aim is to
improve on the correlations previously achieved in the u.s.
Corps of Engineers studies. The gauging station at Gold Creek
{2920) will be used as the master station. However, attempts
will be made to see whether meaningful correlations can be
achieved by using longer-term stations outside the study area
(e.g., Matanuska River at Palmer 2840). Both monthly and
annual flows will be correlated and climatic parameters such as
monthly/annual temperature and preciptation will be introduced
to determine whether they improve the correlations.
Extrapolation of mean annual flow and the seasonal variation of
flow to ungauged locations will be done using factors developed
from drainage basin area and other physiograpic and climatic
parameters (e.g., area covered by glaciers, lakes and swamps,
mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature).
Acres will undertake these analyses.
(ii) Low-Flow Frequency: Duration Analysis
Utilizing the above information, analyses will be carried out
to produce curves relating volume of runoff in low-flow periods
of different durations ranging up to several years to the
frequency of occurrence. These curves would be used to
determine firm power and energy from the proposed developments
during specified critical low flow periods.
Acres will undertake these analyses.
(iii) Reservoir Filling and Operation Studies
It is proposed to set up the Acres' multireservoir water
balance computer model for the Susitna basin. This is a
particularly versatile model, and allows easy application to
different reservoir systems. Reservoir operation rules are
specified as input data, thus allowing considerable flexibility
in studying alternative rules and priorities. The model can
operate with time periods varying from a week to several
months, and can incorporate power generation and load stacking •
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AS-54
This model will be used to undertake reservoir operation and
energy generation studies, and the analyses required to
determine filling schedules. The basic input data to the model
will be derived from the studies discussed in (i) and (ii)
above.
Acres will undertake the work.
(iv) Statistical Analysis of Pre-and
Post-Project Streamflow
Flow duration curves are required for the FERC license
application and the determination of annual sediment yields at
various locations within the basins. Seasonal and annual
duration curve~ will be evaluated using the natural monthly
streamflow data derived in (i) above and for the post-project
flows simulated using output from the multi-reservoir model
discussed in (iii) above.
Recorded natural daily streamflow data at a limited number of
gauging stations within the basin will be utilized to describe
typical flow variations within the calendar months.
Once the project layouts have been finalized, the flow duration
curves described above will be redeveloped for post-project
flow conditions downstream from the damsites. Based on a
knowledge of the daily plant operating characteristics, the
effects of discharge fluctuations within typical months will be
described.
Acres will undertake the studies.
(v) Evaporation Studies
Desk studies will be undertaken to refine the estimate of net
evaporative loss from the reservoir surface area. Based on
available climatic and evaporation data within the Susitna
basin and the vicinity regional estimates of gross evaporation
from an open water surface will be made and extrapolated to
the damsites. Available streamflow and precipitation data will
be used (again on a regional basis) to estimate the pre-project
evapotranspiration rate from the reservoir area and subtracted
from the open water evaporation to yield the net effect of the
reservoir. R&M will undertake these studies.
(vi) Glacial Studies
The results of field surveys for detecting glacial movement and
the aerial inspections and information obtained from aerial
photographs will be evaluated to determine whether the glacier
was noticably moving and if there was potential for a lake
dump. The USGS studies on the Black Rapids Glacier will be
reviewed and general information abstracted and used to assist
in this evaluation.
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AS-55
Should these studies indicate that changes in the glaciers
water and sediment yield could occur, or that a lake dump could
develop, a more comprehensive long-term glacial observation and
study program would be planned for implementation during Phase
2.
R&M and Acres would jointly undertake this study.
(c) Discussion
The streamflow extension (Section (i)) analyses will be based on
available streamflow data up to the end of the 1978-1979 year, i.e.,
October 1979. The data obtained during the first 12 months of the
field program will be utilized to check on the validity of the
extrapolation factors used to derive streamflow data for ungauged
sites. If deemed necessary, these factors will be revised and the
appropriate adjustements made to the streamflow data.
{d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••••
$ 97,300
21,300
Total Subtask 3.04 ••••••••••••••••••• $ 118,600
(e) Schedule
Weeks 31 through 126
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A5-56
Subtask 3.05 -Flood Studies
(a) Objectives
To provide design flood peaks and hydrographs for design of the
project and for assessing pre-and post-project flood conditions in
the Susitna River reaches located down and upstream of the Watana and
Devil Canyon damsites.
(b) Approach
(i) Regional Flood Peak and Volume
Frequency Analysis
A localized regional flood peak and flood volume analysis will
be undertaken for the Matanuska, Susitna (including the Yentna)
and Chakachatna River basins, i.e., the entire Cook Inlet
basin. All gauging stations with periods of records longer
than 7 to 8 years and with drainage basin areas larger than
approximately 250 square miles will be incorporated in the
analysis.
Annual maximum and seasonal maximum flood peaks will be
abstracted fran the records. It is proposed to use two
seasons: the season during which significant ice cover is
present and the ice-free season. The flood peak data wi 11 be
subjected to frequency analyses using the Log Pearson Type III
distribution (or alternatively the three Parameter Lognormal
distribution which has been found to work well in northern
climates). These individual frequency curves will be utilized
to develop regional frequency curves as well as regression
equations for predicting design flood peaks at ungauged loca-
tions within specified homogeneous flood regions. The defini-
tion of homogeneous flood regions will be based both on statis-
tical tests (e.g., Langbein) as well as visual plots of single
station frequency curves.
In developing regression equations, use will be made of physio-
graphic parameters such as drainage basin area, area covered by
glaciers and lakes or swamps, mean late winter snow cover, mean
spring temperatures, etc. The results obtained will be com-
pared to those presented in the broad-based regional study
recently completed by Lanke (USGS, Water Resources Investiga-
tions 78-129).
A flood volume frequency analysis will be undertaken for the
streamflow records on the Susitna at Gold Creek (2920) and at
Cantwell (2915). A screening process will be undertaken to
determine which of the flood types are the most critical:
-spring floods
-high mountain snow melt -rainfall events (June/July)
-summer rainfall events.
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AS-57
The annual maximum flood volumes associated with the critical
type will be abstracted from the streamflow data files and
subjected to a frequency analysis. Analyses will also be
undertaken to determine whether a relationship exists between
the ratio of the flood peak to the flood volume and to develop
typical flood hydrograph shapes. The results of these calcula-
tions will be used to develop design flood hydrographs for the
proposed reservoir sites on the Susitna. Extrapolation to the
ungauged sites will be accomplished by using drainage area
ratios or factors involving other physiographic and climatic
parameters. R&M would undertake this work and Acres would act
in a review capacity.
(ii) Probable Maximum Flood Determination
The approach adopted by the U.S. Corps in their feasibility
studies in developing the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is
appropriate for this stage of the study. The SSARR watershed
model used was reasonably well calibrated considering the
paucity of avail able data. Recal ibration would not be
warranted until the proposed new climatic stations (Subtask
3.03) have been installed and operated for at least two years.
It is therefore proposed to undertake a detailed review and
revision of the input parameters to the U.S. Corps model.
Several runs will then be undertaken with the model to test for
sensitivity of output to changes in input data and to revise
the estimate of the PMF if necessary. The key input parameters
that would be reviewed i ncl u9e:
-probable maximum precipitation
-initi~ snow cover
-temperature sequence
-loss rates or loss functions.
The cost estimate below allows for rerunning the SSARR model.
It is assumed that the consultants would have access to the
U.S. Corps' model. Acres will undertake this work.
(iii) Reservoir Flood Routing
In-house computer programs will be used to route design floods
through the proposed reservoir system. These studies will be
used to size the required service and emergency spi 11 ways and
would also produce the downstream post-project flood
hydrographs required for the downstream water level and ice
studies (Subtask 3.06). Acres will undertake this work.
(c) Discussion
During Phase 2, more extensive analyses would be undertaken to firm up
the design flood estimations (see Section A.7). This would include
recalibration of the SSARR model or, if deemed to be more appropriate,
the application of an alternative computer model such as the more
sophisticated Hydrologic Simulation Package (HSP) developed by
Hydrocomp or the National Weather Service model.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••• ." ••••
External Consultant •••••••r··········
$ 24,100
36,100
7,500
Total Subtask 3.05 ••••••••••••••••••• $ 67,700
(e) Schedule
Weeks 31 through 126
AS-58
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Subtask 3.06 -Hydraulic and Ice Studies
(a) Objective
AS-59
The determination of water levels and ice cover conditions upstream
and downstream from the project sites under flood and low-flow condi-
tions corresponding to pre-and post-project conditions.
{b) Approach
Computer model simulations will be carried out to compute the pre-
project to predicted post-project conditions and to provide inp1:1t to
the civil layout and system operation studies. This will ensure that
potential problems such as the maintenance of a stable ice cover, ice
jamming and flooding, etc. can be dealt with during the project plan-
ning and design process. The results of the studies will also be
utilized in the environmental studies (Task 7) to assess potential
environmental impacts.
(i) River Channel Water Levels and Flows
We propose to utilize the following three basic computer pro-
grams to study the water level and ice regime in the Susitna
River from just upstream of the Watana site to Talkeetna.
-HEC-2 -(Acres modified version, incorporating an ice cover)
-Ice Cover Process Model -This is a computer program which
has been developed in-house by Acres specifically for hydro-
power generation studies in northern climates. It simulates
the growth and decay of a stable ice cover on a channel con-
taining flowing water.
-One-Dimensional Dynamic Flow Model -Acres has several in-
house versions of this program which is capable of simulating
the dynamic response of a channel to a time varying flow
input.
All of the above models are one-dimensional flow models.
Table A5.2 indicates which of the Susitna River reaches these
models will be applied to and the purpose of the simulations to
be carried out.
The ice cover observations and the ice cover thickness and
strength measurements undertaken by the Geophysical Institute
and made during the course of this study will be utilized for:
-calibrating the ice cover process model
- determining typical ice cover conditions to be simulated with
the backwater program (HEC-2)
-assessing where potential ice jams could occur.
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A5-60
The studies outlined in Table A5.2 deal with the Susitna River
only as far downstream as Talkeetna. It is proposed to use a
less rigorous approach to assess the effects of proposed pro-
ject on flow in the river channel downstream from Talkeetna.
Should these analyses indicate that more detailed studies are
required, they will be done during Phase 2.
As soon as the topographic survey information of the Susitna
reaches concerned becomes available and sufficient water level
observations are obtained (Subtask 3.03), the above models will
be set up and calibrated. The simulation exercise will then
follow and continue on through the project design studies
(Task 6).
Acres and R&M will jointly undertake the above studies. R&M
~~\concentrate on the river reach downstream from the Devil
Canyon damsite,as this aspect could be usefully combined with
flood plain mapping work they may be undertaking in the area.
Acres will direct the work undertaken by R&M.
(ii) Reservoir Freeboard
The required reservoir freeboard for wind conditions will be
evaluated. The wind data collected in the basin during the
first 18 months will be utilized to extrapolate design wind
conditions to the reservoir sites. Acres will undertake this
work.
(iii) Slide Induced Reservoir Surge
It is proposed to undertake a literature review of previous
work done in this area. Of particular interest will be the
mathematical and physical modeling work done by B.C. Hydro on
the Downie slide and Revelstoke dam and their work on the Mica
slide. Information obtained from this review plus the results
of the reservoir seismic studies (Task 4) will be used to
assess the nature and magnitude of the potential problems and
to establish some preliminary design criteria. Should further
detailed study be necessary, a suitable methodology and scope
of work would be developed for application in Phase 2. Acres
will undertake this work.
(iv) Reservoir Temperature Regime
An in-house computer model will be utilized to simulate the
vertical temperature stratification within the proposed reser-
voirs for a typical year. This model will be calibrated based
on our past experience with such models, other studies on
similar projects, and utilizing the results of similar work
being conducted at the University of Alaska.
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A5-61
Output from this model will be utilized to assist in the
selection of the levels of the offtakes for the discharge
structures and to predict changes in the downstream water
temperatures. Acres will undertake the work.
(d) Discussion
The above approach, particularly the application of the. backwater
program incorporating an ice cover and the ice cover process model,
has been developed based on our extensive experience with design of
hydroelectric facilities in northern climates, particularly on the
Nelson River in Manitoba. The type of problems we would anticipate
with ice in the Susitna project and the methods that could be adopted
to deal with them are discussed in Section A.2.
(e) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $ 56,300
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••• 43,600
External Consultant •••••••••••••••••• 5,000 __ _...._.......;...
Total Task . I 3.06 .•.•.•.••••.•.••..•.•• $· 104,900
(f) Schedule
Weeks 40 through 126
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Subtask 3.07 -Sediment Yield and River
Morphology Studies
(a) Objective
AS-62
Determination of the rate of sediment accumulation in the proposed
reservoirs and prediction of the effects on the downstream river
channel morphology.
(b) Approach
(i) Sediment Yield and Deposition
The U.S. Corps of Engineers total sediment yield studies des-
cribed in the 1975 feasibility report will be updated by incor-
porating all new data on sediment discharge that have since
become available. A literature review will be undertak.en to
firm up the reservoir trap efficiency figures used and to
develop an appreciation of the spatial distribution of the
deposited sediment in the reservoir. State-of-the-art settle-
ment theory will be used to determine average sediment concen-
tration in the reservoir at various times of the year. This
latter information will be required to determine the quality of
the water released from the reservoir.
(ii) River Morphology
A thorough review of previous work done in the Susitna Basin and
other Alaskan rivers and available field data for the Susitna
River will be undertaken. An air photo mosaic will be prepared
for the reach between Devil Canyon and Talkeetna. Historical
photographs will be studied to assess past regime changes both
in the main river channel and the tributaries.
Studies will be undertaken to determine a suitable regime-type
equation. With the aid of this formula and input from the
reservoir simulation studies (Subtasks 3.04 and 3.05) expected
morphologic changes will be assessed. The more pronounced
changes will be illustrated on the air photo mosaic •
Based on available information, changes to the morphology of the
river downstream from Talkeetna will be generally assessed.
Should this preliminary analysis ·indicate a more detailed study
is required, this would be done during Phase 2.
(c) Discussion
The reservoir sediment calculations will be revised during Phase 2,
once several seasons of additional field data have become available.
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AS-63
The state of the art in modelling the distribution of deposited sedi-
ment is not yet sufficiently advanced to produce reliable estimates of
the spatial distribution of sediment within a reservoir, unless exten-
sive calibration studies are undertaken and a large amount of field
data is available. During Phase 2 of the study an assessment will be
made as to the adequacy of the available data to calibrate such a
model and a decision will be made whether to undertake such modelling
work.
R&M will undertake the work described in this subtask and Acres will
act in a review function.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison & Review (Acres) •••••••••••••
$ 43,700
2,000
Total Subtask 3.07 ••••••••••••••••••• $ 45,700
(e) Schedule
Weeks 53 through 126
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A5-64
Subtask 3.08-Climatic Studies for Transmission Line
(a) Objective
To provide climatologic design criteria for the design of transmission
lines. These include ice cover thickness and wind speed.
(b) Approach
Preliminary design criteria will be evaluated during the early stages
of the study. Utilizing available climatic information and experience
obtained in other northern transmission line projects, design para-
meters will be established, i.e., ·
-wind speeds
-icing conditions (frequency and thickness of accumulation)
-temperature conditions
Input will be obtained from an experienced meteorologist on staff to
assist in developing these parameters. An attempt will also be made
to develop a general perception of the spatial variation in these
parameters for input to the transmission line route selection
studies.
During the second year of the study, as the climatic field data
becomes available, a more detailed approach will be adopted to firm up
the design criteria. An in-cloud icing model is available in the
Acres computer library and has been used to calculate ice loads for
the design of a transmission line from Ocean Falls to Kemano in
northern British Columbia.
We will use this model to predict ice cover thickness for specified
design climatic conditions. A check on model accuracies will be made
by comparing model results with measured ice accumulations from the
Field Data Collection Program (Subtask 3.03) and using data from other
sources such as the in-cloud ice accumulation data which is available
(4 years, 42 events) for Mclean Mountain, British Columbia.
Determination of freezing rain accumulation will be based on the data
collected in the field and obtained from other sources such as the
firstorder meteorological stations in Alaska, the Yukon and northern
British Columbia.
Acres will undertake this subtask •
(c) Discussion
To estimate risks of combined wind and ice loads for various return
periods, two meteorological events must be considered. On the
portions of routes which would carry the line to high elevations,
in-cloud ice accumulation is likely to represent the most severe
condition. On the portion of routes where the line would follow
valley floors, freezing rain or drizzle would result in maximum loads.
In-cloud icing produces rime accumulation having a density of about
0.6 g/cm3, as does the occurrence of freezing drizzle. Freezing
rain results in glaze icing with a density of about 0.9 g/cm3.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $ 14,000
(e) Schedule
Preliminary Design Parameters-Weeks 14 through 126
Detailed Studies -Weeks 70 through 82
AS-65
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A5-66
Subtask 3.09 -Access Road Studies
(a) Objective
To provide the necessary design f1 ood peaks and to evaluate the capa-
city of the required hydraulic structures such as bridges and cul-
verts.
(b) Approach
For design floods associated with larger basins, the results of the
regional flood studies (Subtask 3.05) will be used. For the smaller
catchments measured f1 ood f1 ows from small catchments will be ut i1 i zed
to develop regional flood peak relationships. Summer rain fall stati s-
ties will be evaluated and utilized with a rational type formula to
calculate design summer flood peaks.
(c) Discussion
Hydraulic calculations, using standard techniques and design curves
will be employed to evaluate the necessary size of the hydraulic
structures. Bridge size and abutment shapes and alignments will be
determined so as to minimize the effect on the drainage of water and
general and local scour.
R&M would perform this subtask.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••••• $ 14,300
(e) Schedule
Weeks 52 through 100
' ' ~
TABLE A5.1 -Pflii'OSED HYilHOlOGIC FIELD DATA COLLECIIOH PI<OGRAM
Tl•• B&twttao
Shtlon Trp• Maasuru!J Paramaturs ___ _jT~I·~·~O..~I•~•;•~·--_ _isut~olll!~o~n------=~:[:~N~ ... ~b~o~r~o~I~S~to~t~l~on~s~l~ns~t~o~l~lo~d~[[=-~Ty~p~•~h•nd Quant I ty) of -..Po=r=orn=•t"'o='=r= Typtt of Equ!,>mUnt Obsur¥atloos VIsits 1980 1981 MAJor lli!.e!!!.!!!.L!~'!'~
&ylng Wator lwul Ch4rt or topu rocorder
C.sble -wa~ or boat lU1d
cur runt 111tttur
Continuous
S1.mmtlr: 2-4 wuek.$
Wlntur: 2-l ~nooths.
WdtiH"" I will WattN lw.:.l St4t f uauga 4nd pu~k
lwul lndlc4tllr
Sun~fH:Jr; 2-8 llltUtks
Wlntor; 2 months
Sedlmunt dlschdrgo 5us"dndoli s•uJimuo r Suspundud sudlmunt As tor watt~~r
dl SCh4rgtJ
Snow cours.a
W4tat· quo II tr
Cllmorlc
(autaadtiC)
concontrot lon sampler
Bed llldtorlol situ
Snow p4Ck dupth
and -water oquiY4-
Iont
TtiNDpurllturu,
turbidity, con-
ductlv lty,
dlssolvud (ll(yyun.
pH
Ala...lln lly
C02
Total ond ortho
phos.phorus
Tot41 4Rd kJt~lddhl)
n I trO<JUR )
Totcal dlssolvttd
and susponda1J
solids
Tn1co ml)tal s.
Wln4 speud 4111.1
dlre..:t lon
R&l4tlva tH.tnldlly
Tompdr ... turtt
Ra ln/snu .. ( unhu..s r.uJ
9dU!JOI
ConventJondl ttooM survey 2-4 llfe.tks during
equlpnunt 4Rd/ur !.nOM winter months
pillows
flull.i mw:.ur In~ Uo,JUipm.:snt Surmulr; I AK>otb
WlnttJr: 2-l months
Grdb ~-1mpl u~ dnd ldbor-
dtory an<1lysls In tluld
conp
Grdb s.Jmples and lc~~boro
tory drr.<tlysls In
Anchura~u
Aut'-"'ndt lc Mtotl\ur
stat I on
As abOY •
CootiOUilUS
Sun1nar; 2-4 •uuks
Wlnt~ro I IIJlRtl\
As In pr.w lous
COILtnO
As In pr.w lous
column
As In prw Jous
column
) (2 PQW at proj&~;t siTu~,
re.tctl..,late USGS Station
29t5 on tho Sus I tn4 Rlvur)
8
U lnvolv• suppldO•&ntary
IP04SW"emt~nts ~tt USGS st.stlon:.
2910, 2912, 2920).
Su~m~ur; I •onth l
Wlntor; 2-1 roontl\s
As abovo
As dbt>.t o
Monthly
None
-·
None·
-·
W4t&r lwul rucordurs U t I spdrol
c~ront moteni (2)
8uot5 (2)
Cable lllolys (21
IC& OU!)Of$ (2)
Stof I g.:augos
P&4k levul lndlc4tors
SuSptafHJod sodllntlf\t Sdmplars Cl)
Btwl 1114fttrlol S<kuplors (2)
Cunvuntlonol 51\ov survuy uqulpnlllnt
II ••II· '
(4 t I spare)
Jltrotion kl t
fruuzlng ~ulpmuut In t&old
Cil:np CU
Autom4tlc ~~~uathur shtloO$
(9 't z $pdf&)
·-·--·---------------------------------------------'
L.....: 1 ..__ L.....l
TAill£ A~.l -I'IIOI'OSED HYOROUlGIC flEW OATA COLL£CTIOH PROGRAM ICoot'dl
n •• Between
Observations
Thao Between
Station
VIsits
HUMber of Stations lnstoned
Station Type Pora.etar Type of Equipment 1980 1981
I
Cll•atlc
(outot~4tlc •lth
hda ted Q4UQ• plua
fi'M~a Obs..rvw
lnfor•otlonl
In cloud Icing
Snow crDOp
Ice COHlf"'
(Ground survevo)
let~ aNer
(Aur 141 SUN&'f)
Aa abowe, pi us
sol at' radlat I on
£voporatl011 (14n
Vhlbllltv
(hootod QGUIJ•J
Automatic wather
stotlon plus sane
obsent e.-In lonnd I on
Ice taultdup on a Shorr ~action of trAn~-
transmlsilon lint~~ ml:as.lon line,
6 ftHJt lony moun tad
5 f_,ut .sbwo yround
Ice buildup av Jng t-bdzontdl ~hal plats.
• preclpl ttttlon
went
Snow creap
fee compttlancu
& tant of leo
<<Nor
Location of led
J-
Sno• m4rkurs and surve'f'
&qulpmtmt
2-S 4ugur ho lttS tor
IR845U('EIIlt;JRt
Vhucal lnspactlon 4«d/or
pone tr"'nllltor dtN lcB
Vlsu41 Md phol09rctphlc
r~~eords
lc• surglny/ Sur-vur, vlsucal &
rucas:ilon I gi.21CI41 pl•~.>togr4pble rocords
5Lirf.xMI fe.sturos
( Htocate~ dt th• pona.-nunl' W,tcan~ tiald c<»np.
Contlnuou' Oolly
Only during Of" hnmedl-SporaiJIC
otelv ~alt..-Icing
conditions
~ly dur~ng or illlllludl-Sporadic
atety otter fnuulny
rain
2-4 weuki. dur lny
winter Bllnth5
Suttnur: non•
~Inter; I 110nth
Our lng bre4k-up
pttr iod -one to
savor41 .Wys
Our lng fntttzo-up
per lod -weekly
Two monthli
Honthl v d<rlng
wlntor JOOnths
Sunnur : nona
Win htro I ronth
Two mooth:i
8-12
&21toccatlons. to be flra.•d ~ oftdr inirl41 llald trips .sod rwlow of lf•ld dcltll cotlect~:~cJ by Gttoph.-slcal lnstltul'a, 1Ji1lvwsltv-of Alask.s.
Antlclp4t• 6-8 sl'atlons on tho Sus I tna Rlvur 4nd 2-4 on lmport12ont l'l"lbuhrht:..
UIAs for Note 2. Mtlclp.ste to c~or IWltlro rocach from M~c\4ren-Susll'ntt Rlvvr jw.cUon to confluunce of O.ulltntt Rlvtir.
C4Ju b ossl.l'hod th4t thr. •lstln!J ..:4bh 4t Vud c4n bu upyr<hhtd for use.
Ulu h porposu~ to .... dr.~rt12ok& oolr sporciLJic Ulllh to thu stc1tlon ot VEE U.e. ot 9"~o 291!a).
Hone
2
0-4
Tvp• land Quontltvl of
Me lor Equlpmant to be Purchased
Short •ectlon of tro.nsml·sslon
line
S toe& pi ates
Sno111 1114rkors
lc:• penatra~~o.:.ter
Survor 11141"kurs
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AS-69
TABLE A5.2
PROPOSED APPLICATION OF
ONE-DIMENSIONAL FLOW MODELS
TO THE SUSITNA RIVER
Study
No.
1
2
3
4
5
NOTES:
River
Reach
Upstream of
Watana
Watana Dam
site to
Talkeetna
Model
HEC-2, Ice Cover
Process Model
HEC-2, Ice Cover
Process Mode 1
Watana Dam Site HEC-2, Ice Cover
to Devil Can-Process Model
yon site
Devil Canyon
site to
Talkeetna
Watana and
Devil Canyon
site during
the diversion
stage of con-
struction
HEC-2, Ice Cover
Process Model ,
Dynamic Flow Model
HEC-2, Ice Cover
Model Process
The word "regime" implies the following:
-ice cover-nature and timing of growth
-stability
-decay and jamming
-water level -low flow conditions
-flood flow conditions
Purpose of
Simulations
To study the establishment
of the stable ice cover on
the Watana Reservoir
To study the ice cover and
water level regime down-
stream of Watana prior to
construction of Devil
Canyon Dam and to calculate
tailwater rating curves
To study the ice cover
regime at the Devil Canyon
Reservoir
To study the ice cover and
water level regime in the
reach below Devil Canyon
and to calculate tailwater
rating curves
To design an adequate
diversion system
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SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLATE T3.1= PROPOSED DATA COLLECTION STATIONS
IN THE SUSITNA BASIN-1980 .
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IN THE RAILBEL T AREA-1980
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TASK 4: SEISMIC STUDIES
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AS-70
A.S.2. -TASK 4: SEISMIC STUDIES
(i) Task Objectives
To determine the earthquake ground motions which will provide the
seismic design criteria for the major structures associated with the
Susitna Hydroelectric Project, to undertake preliminary evaluations
of the seismic stability of proposed earth-rockfill and concrete
dams, to assess the potential for reservoir induced seismicity and
landslides, and to identify soils which are susceptible to seismi-
cally-induced failure along the proposed transmission line and
access road routes.
(ii) Task Output
The data collection programs and studies outlined in this task will
be sufficiently comprehensive for FERC license applications.
Thorough presentations of conclusions, evaluations and data are also
desirable for projects that are being carefully reviewed by permit-
ting agencies. Woodward-Clyde Consultants has completed previous
similar projects in Alaska and other states where permitting
agencies, or other interested groups or agencies, are closely
scrutinizing a project. Based upon our past experience, we believe
that the Susitna Hydropower Project will undergo close scrutiny, and
that the reports of the project should be complete and thorough. We
propose to complete the reporting of the seismic geology and seis-
mology investigations with this philosophy as a guide.
The primary products of this task will include:
-Technical reports containing thorough documentation of all work
done during the first year.
-Final technical reports containing thorough documentation for all
studies during the first two years.
-Monthly management reports during the course of the investigation.
The technical reports will be accompanied by geologic maps showing
locations of all controlling features, fault lines, etc.
Management reports will deal with technical and financial progress
with respect to plan.
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(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 4.01 -Review of Available Data
Subtask 4.02 -Short-term Seismologic Monitoring Program
Subtask 4.03 -Preliminary Reservoir Induced Seismicity
Subtask 4.04 -Remote Sensing Image Analysis
Subtask 4.05 -Seismic Geology Reconnaissance
Subtask 4.06 -Evaluation and Reporting
Subtask 4.07-Preliminary Ground Motion Studies
Subtask 4.08-Preliminary Analysis of Dam Stability
Subtask 4.09 -Long-term Seismologic Monitoring Program
Subtask 4.10 -Reservoir Induced Seismicity
Subtask 4.11 -Seismic Geology Field Studies
Subtask 4.12 -Evaluation and Reporting
Subtask 4.13 -Ground Motion Studies
Subtask 4.14 -Dam Stability Consulting Services
Subtask 4.15-Soil Susceptibility to Seismically-
Induced Failure
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
A5-71
Task 4 activities will be crucial in establishing the safety of
dams and other structures under potential earthquake or induced
seismicity conditions. The FERC license application for the
selected Susitna project components must demonstrate convincingly
that the maximum credible earthquake has been identified and the
major structures have been properly design~to safely cope with such
conditions.
Task 4 activites will consequently be initiated immediately at
commencement of studies and will be designed to provide an effec-
tive basis for design of dams and other structures prior to submis-
sion of the FERC license application.
Task 4 activities have been subdivided into a total of fifteen
packages arranged to include a program of field and office studies
and installation of a monitoring system adequate to satisfy the
most stringent requirements of dam safety. These activities will
be appropriately coordinated with parallel geotechnical exploration
and dam design efforts.
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A5-72
Subtask 4.01 -Review of Available Data
(a) Objective
Acquire, compile and review existing data and identify the earthquake
setting of the Susitna River area.
(b) Approach
Data obtained under this subtask will be used to plan the details of
the seismologic investigations (Subtasks 4.02, 4.03, 4.09 and 4.10)
and the seismic geology field reconnaissance (Subtask 4.05). Avail-
able geological, seismological, and geophysical data for the region
will be gathered from sources such as Woodward-Clyde files, the
Department of Geologic and the Geophysical Institute of the Univer-
sity of Alaska, the Alaska Geological Survey, the u.s. Geological
Survey~ the major colleges and universities involved in research
pertinent to the project. In addition, researchers with on-going
programs of studY will be contacted and the current status of their
research will be obtained by discussions and written correspondence.
The acquisition of geological data will be concentrated on structural
features of the earth that may represent major active faults. The
geomorphic expressions of these features will also be identified from
the available data.
Geophysical data regarding the structure of the earth will be acquir-
ed and reviewed. Regional gravity and magnetic data are particularly
useful in identifying major discontinuities in the crust of the
earth. These discontinuities may be along faults that could produce
large earthquakes and surface fault ruptures. If available, other
types of geophysical data such as seismic refraction, seismic reflec-
tion and electrical resistivity may also be of use in identifying
major active faults.
Seismological data will be acquired for the project area. This data
includes historical information on past earthquakes, instrumental
data from the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska, and
regional instrumental data from the u.S. Geological Survey.
The geological, seismological, and geophysical data will be compiled
in order to obtain a thorough current knowledge of the tectonics of
the Susitna River area. The end product will consist of maps that
identify faults, lineaments, and epicenter clusters or alignments
identified by others. These maps will provide a basis for the pro-
posed geological and seismological studies.
In addition to the data acquired for the project area, data relating
to reservoir-induced seismicity will also be compiled. The world-
wide data on reservoir-induced seismicity will provide a partial
basis for evaluating whether or not induced earthquakes may be gener-
ated in the Susitna River area. Woodward-Clyde Consultants has an
extensive file on world-wide data on reservoir-induced earthquakes,
and is currently being retained for further research in reservoir-
induced seismicity by the u.s. Geological Survey.
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The specific products of this subtask include:
-Historical earthquake map and catalog
A5-73
A catalog of reported earthquakes with magnitude 4.0 and larger
from 1899 to the present will be prepared for the region within 200
miles of the site. For the larger earthquakes in the period, the
geologic and engineering effects will be discussed. Data quality
as a function of time will be evaluated to estimate completeness
level of the catalog with respect to magnitude, focal .depth, and
spatial location.
-Summary of recent regional monitoring
Microearthquake monitoring by the University of Alaska Geophysical
Institute and the U.S. Geological Survey will be reviewed and sum-
mary plots of seismicity data will be prepared. Results and inter-
pretations based on these data will be reviewed with appropriate
personnel in governmental and academic organizations. Of particu-
lar importance is evaluation of the accuracy of focal depth deter-
minations based on these network studies.
-Tectonic model
Based on available seismologic and geologic data, a preliminary
kinematic tectonic model will be developed for the region within
about 200 miles of the site. This model will be modified as needed
by studies in later subtasks and provides the basis for under-
standing the interrelated geologic source areas for future earth-
quake activity in the Alaskan interior. Applications and implica-
tions of seismic gap theory will be considered.
(c) Discussion
The seismicity and seismic sources of the Alaskan interior have only
recently begun to be studied in significant detail. Interest in the
seismicity of continental Alaska was stimulated by the occurrence of
the major 1964 earthquake and involved the initiation of regional
microearthquake monitoring and the augmentation of geological invest-
igations to improve understanding of the tectonics of Alaska.
The seismological environment of the Susitna Project is characterized
by two major earthquake sources:
-shallow earthquake activity occurring along crustal faults such as
the Denali fault, with depth of focus less than approximately 12
miles; and
-earthquake activity in a Benioff zone which has a depth range of 30
to 90 miles and is associated with the subduction of the Pacific
plate beneath Alaska.
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AS-74
Geological studies are used, along with seismological data, to inves-
tigate the shallow earthquake sources. The deeper-focus earthquake
sources are not directly expressed at the earth•s surface and must be
investigated using seismological data combined with a kinematic
understanding of the present-day tectonic activity of the Alaskan
interior. The occurrence of past large earthquakes within the
region, such as the 1904 and 1912 magnitude 7 to 8 earthquakes,
indicates that both the shallow and deeper seismic zones may have the
potential for generating earthquakes with ground motions significant
to the project.
The Susitna River area is within a zone of active seismicity that
extends from the Aleutian trough on the south into central and
northern interior Alaska. Woodward-Clyde Consultants has previously
conducted regional studies of seismic geology and seismicity over
broad regions of Alaska. The past regional evaluations have been for
the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, the proposed Offshore Continental
Shelf regions surrounding Alaska, and for the proposed Alcan Gas
Pipeline. These past regional studies provide data regarding the
earthquake sources in Alaska, and they also provide up-to-date
knowledge of the current status of research in the area.
(d) Levels of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
Total Subtask 4.01
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 22
$57,000
1,000
$58,000
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Subtask 4.02 -Short-term Seismologic Monitoring Program
(a) Objective
A5-75
Establish initial monitoring system, obtain and analyze basic seismo-
logic data on potential earthquake sources within the Susitna River
area and supply information required to implement a more thorough
long-term monitoring program (Subtask 4.09).
(b) Approach
This. subtask involves two major packages of work:
(I) Analysis of Existing Data
Further limited analysis of existing regional earthquake data
will be undertaken to enable sufficiently accurate and appropri-
ate selection of maximum earthquake sources and associated
attenuation relationships. Source studies will be carried out
on several of the largest historical earthquakes, including the
1904 and 1912 events, in order to constrain their location,
local depth and causative geological structure. The maximum
earthquake potential of the subduction zone beneath the Susitna
site is poorly understood, and it will be of significant value
to use the historical data to properly characterize this source.
These studies will also be directed to the evaluation of the
seismic attenuation characteristics of deeper earthquakes to
enable the proper utilization of the results of the Alaskan
OASES study by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (1978) and other
studies in selecting appropriate attentuation relationships
required for Subtask 4.07 and 4.13.
(2) Establishment of a Monitoring Network
Since the study area is in a remote but seismically active area
additional detailed earthquake source data will be collected by
installing and operating a localized microearthquake recording
network.
The network will be established and operated during the summer
of 1980. The area covered will include the region within
approximately 30 miles of the dam sites. Eight to ten recorders
with station spacing of 5 to 10 miles will be installed to
record microearth activity down to magnitude of 1.0 or less.
Low-power radio telemetery will be used to make the field opera-
tion as efficient as possible. Helicopter support will be used
for installation and maintenance.
Initial station deployment will be guided by the information
obtained during the data review (Subtask 4.01). It will be
required to monitor known significant geologic features, such as
the Susitna fault.
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During the course of the study, some of the stations may be
moved to study specific areas of activity. Data analysis will
be carried out to locate active seismic sources and evaluate
their spatial extent and focal depth. These analyses will also
be used to establish causative stress orientations based on
focal mechanism studies, to evaluate seismic attentuation, and
to evaluate the statistical features of the microearthquake
activity.
Specific results to be obtained relative to source and wave
propagation assessment include the association of larger earth-
quakes (such as the 1904 and 1~12 events) with probable source
structures, determination of d·epth of the Benioff Zone of deeper
seismic activity, and attenuation characteristics of subduction
zone earthquakes. Seismic source 1 ocat ion in terms of maximum
earthquake potential in the Benioff Zone will be performed.
Comparisons will be made with seismic activity in other compar-
able tectonic areas to assess attenuation and maximum earthquake
potential. The scope of these studies will be modified as
necessary on the basis of the results obtained as the work pro-
gresses.
Liaison will be maintained with data collection by the Univer-
sity of Alaska Geophysical Institute and the u.s. Geological
Survey. The recording period is initially planned as three
months; however, if this should need to be modified, appropriate
recommendations will be made during the course of the study.
(c) Discussion
The present location and focal mechanism level using the Geophysical
Institute network is about magnitude 2-1/2 or larger. The data
obtained from the proposed monitoring program will supplement the
existing regional network operations and will provide needed accuracy
and detection threshold. In addition, the results obtained will pro-
vide the information needed to accurately site the long-term network
stations (Subtask 4.09) and to select appropriate instrumentation.
They will also aid in planning the seismic geology reconnaissance
(Subtask 4.05).
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$253,000
4,000
Total Subtask 4.02 ••••••••••••••••••• $257,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 21 through 52
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AS-77
Subtask 4.03-Preliminary Reservoir Induced Seismicity
(a) Objective
Evaluate the potential for the possible future occurrence of
reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) in the Susitna Project area.
{b) Approach
The results of this evaluation will be used to establish scenarios of
possible outcomes of the occurrence of reservoir induced seismicity.
Woodward-Clyde Consultants has recently completed a major analysis of
geologic, seismologic, and hydrologic factors associated with past
cases of reservoir induced seismicity. The results of this study
will also be applied to the known factors for the Susitna project in
order to statistically relate the Susitna Project to the potential
for RIS. The resulting potential will be evaluated in tenns of
possible scenarios for the occurrence of induced activity and the
possible outcome of such occurrences will be discussed.
This analysis will result in a quantitative assessment of the poten-
tial for the occurrence of reservoir induced seismicity as a result
of the damming of the Susitna River. A comparison will be made of
depth, volume, regional stress, geologic setting, and faulting at the
Susitna dam sites with the same parameters for the world•s deep and/
or very large reservoirs. Based on this comparison, the probability
of reservoir induced seismicity at the Susitna dam sites will be
assessed.
A description of known cases of RIS emphasizing the relationship
between filling of the reservoir and the length of time to the first
and largest earthquakes, the relevance of these data to the Susitna
dam sites will be discussed.
Scenarios will be presented that discuss possible courses of action
that can be taken if RIS is anticipated or detected during filling of
the reservoir.
(c) Discussion
(d)
The activities associated with this task will be closely coordinated
with the hydraulic studies aimed at assessing the potential impact on
the reservoir water level of a reservoir induced slide. {See Subtask
3.06).
Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
Total Subtask 4.03
$17,000
1,000
$18,000
(e) Schedule IM1ml~ __ w_ee_ks_2_3_th_rou_gh_s_o ______________________ ~
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Subtask 4.04 -Remote Sensing Image Analysis
(a) Objective
Select and interpret available remote sensing imagery to identify
topographic features that may be associated with active faulting.
{b) Approach
AS-78
Data obtained under this subtask will be used during the Seismic
Geology Reconnaissance (Subtask 4.05) and the Seismic Geology Field
Studies (Subtask 4.11) to identify youthful faults that may produce
future earthquakes and future surface fault ruptures. Remote sensing
imagery and aerial photography relevant to approximately 100 km
radius about the dam site will be selected for a lineament analysis.
This remote sensing data includes available Landsat, SLAR (side-
landing airborn radar), Skylab photography; high altitude U-2, or
RB-57 color infrared photographs, and black-and-white aerial photo-
graphs. The remote sensing and high altitude imagery and aerial
photographs will be interpreted in terms of the geology, geomorpho-
1 ogy and structure of the study region.
Interpretation will help to identify lineaments and other features
that may be related to active faults. Seismicity clusters and
alignments identified during the seismicity evaluation in Subtask
4.02 will be compared with the lineaments identified by the imagery
interpretation and the known faults on existing maps to assess the
possible relationship of the epicentral locations, surficial linea-
ments, and mapped faults. The imagery interpretation will be conduc-
ted by geologists experienced in lineament evaluation and in the
recognition of features associated with active faults. It will be
important to distinguish these lineaments from similar features that
result from non-tectonic geologic processes.
(c) Discussion
The activities in this task will be closely coordinated with the
photo interpretation studies being conducted for the dam site,
reservoir and constructed material areas (Subtask 5.02) to insure
that information requests and analysis are not duplicated. Following
an initial aerial and ground reconnaissance it may be decided that
low-sun-angle aerial photography should be acquired for specific
geomorphic features that may be fault-related. For this purpose,
low-sun-angle color infrared and black-and-white photography at a
sea 1 e of approximate 1 y 1: 24,000 is proposed. This has proven exceed-
ingly valuable in delineating subtle topographic features that may be
fault-related. The long shadows cast by the low-sun-angle highlight
subtle topographic features related to faults, such as scarps or off-
sets, that would be undetectable with conventional vertical aerial
photographs.
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AS-79
Color infrared photography has also proven extremely useful in
delineating subtle features in the terrain such as a contrast in
vegetation or in surface moisture. Such features are often associa-
ted with faults where ground water is either closest along the fault
zone or on only one side of the fault.
A map of lineaments within 100 km of the project area will be pro-
duced as a guide for Subtasks 4.05 and 4.11. The lineament map will
be supplemented by mapped faults from Subtask 4.01, in order to com-
pare known faults with lineaments of various origins.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$52,000
1,000
Total Subtask 4.04 ••••••••••••••••••• $53,000
(e) Schedule
Aerial photographs will be ordered during the first month. The
analysis will be performed during weeks 10 through 26.
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Subtask 4.05 -Seismic Geology Reconnaissance
(a) Objective
AS-80
Perform a reconnaissance investigation of known faults in the Susitna
River ar·ea, and of 1 ineaments that may be faults, identify active
faults and establish priorities for more detailed field investiga-
tions.
(b) Approach
This task will utilize the data obtained from Subtask 4.01 and the
aerial photographic interpretations outlined in Subtask 4.04 as a
basis for planning aerial and ground reconnaissance.
The aerial reconnaissance will systematically cover all lineaments
and faults identified in previous subtasks. A field analysis will be
made in order to identify whether or not each feature may be an
active fault that may impact the project area due to its being
associated with a large earthquake or capable of producing a future
surface fault rupture. Features within 60 miles of the project area
will be studied during the reconnaissance, with each lineament and
fault being identified by number. In addition, regional reconnais-
sance of major features such as the Denali fault and the Castle
Mountain fault which may extend as far as 200 miles from the project
area will be investigated. Interpretations regarding the origin of
each feature will be made by expert seismic geologists with past
experience on similar projects. Those features that are interpreted
to originate from youthful faulting, or features of unknown origin
that may be due to youthful faulting, will be studied further in the
field and subjected to reconnaissance-level geologic mapping.
The reconnaissance-level geologic mapping will be oriented toward
identifying whether or not the bedrock units near the feature suggest
the presence or absence of a fault. In addition, the Quaternary
geomorphic surfaces and stratigraphic units in proximity to each
feature will be studied to aid in identifying whether or not faulting
has occurred in young units. The reconnaissance-level mapping, at a
scale of 1:63,360, will aid in identifying those features that will
require detailed study during the field season of 1981.
These activities will be coordinated with the geologic mapping tasks
associated in Subtask 5.04.
(c) Discussion
The Susitna River area is in a complex tectonic area that is poorly
known geologically. Previous work by Kachadoorian and Moore empha-
sized the structural complexity of this area, and the large number of
linear features at the surface that may be due to faulting or to
other origins. These surface features require field investigation to
identify their origins. In order to identify the origins of some
features it may require detailed mapping, trending, borings, or
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A5-81
geophysical data. Despite thorough investigations, however, it may
not be possible to obtain definitive information regarding the
origins of all t~e lineaments.
Woodward-Clyde Consultants has conducted seismic geology reconnais-
sance investigations over large regions of Alaska and in many other
seismically active areas of the world. Based upon that experience,
we estimate that reconnaissance-level investigations as proposed in
this subtask will definitively identify the origins of about 90% of
the 1 ineaments identified on remote sensing images. If these
features are considered to be controlling faults for the design of
dams and other important facilities, further detailed investigations
will be undertaken in the Seismic Geology Field Studies, Subtask
4.11
The products of this subtask will consist of a map that identifies
recently active faults, and features of unknown origins that may be
faults significant to one or more dam sites and other critical
facilities. In addition, all field observations will be tabulated
for each lineament studied, and preliminary estimates of the maximum
credible earthquake and faulting, along with the recurrences of
faulting, will be made for each active fault and other features that
may be faults.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
Total Subtask 4.05
(e) Schedule
Weeks 24 through 39
$120,000
3,000
$123,000
This task can begin after Subtask 4.04 is complete. Subtask 4.02
should proceed concurrently with this subtask, or it should preceed
this subtask.
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Subtask 4.06 -Evaluation and Reporting
(a) Objectives.
AS-82
Complete a preliminary evaluation of the seismic environment of the
project, define the earthquake source parameters required for earth-
quake engineering input in design, and document the studies in
reports suitable for use in design studies (Task 6).
(b) Approach
The approach of this subtask will be to provide a probabilistic
analysis of earthquakes along controlling active faulting, and to
estimate maximum credible earthquakes for each active fault. These
analyses will be completed by an interdisciplinary team utilizing the
reconnaissance-level information obtained from Subtask 4.01 to 4.05.
Reporting will be in a format suitable for use in selecting the
design basis earthquakes, and will include thorough documentation
that will be suitable for FERC and peer group review.
(c) Discussion
A panel of leading experts in seismology investigation and seismic
design of major structures will be convened during this activity to
review and comment on all study work undertaken and the findings
thereof.
Overall management and coordination of Subtasks 4.01 to 4.05 is also
incorporated in this subtask.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
Review Panel •••••••••••••••••••••••••
$138,000
8,000
10,000
Total Subtask 4.06 ••••••••••••••••••• $156,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 18 through 52
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Subtask 4.07-Preliminary Ground Motion Studies
(a) Objective
A5-83
Undertake a preliminary estimate of the ground motions (ground
shaking) to which proposed project facilities may be subjected during
earthquakes.
(b) Approach
The ground motion characteristics to be estimated include peak para-
meters (peak accelerations, velocities, and displacements), response
spectra (describing the frequency content of ground shaking) and
significant duration (describing the time duration of strong ground
shaking). This initial assessment of ground motions will be made
. using information fran the seismic geology (Subtask 4.05) and seis-
mology (Subtask 4.02) studies. The ground motion estimates will be
refined if necessary on the basis of additional information gathered
during the second year. (See Subtask 4.13).
In consideration of ground motions, the terms .. seismic exposure .. and
11 Seismic risk .. are sometimes used interchangeably. However, for the
purposes of this proposal they have two distinctly different mean-
ings:
-.. Seismic Exposure .. is used to define the nature of the earthquake
induced ground motion characteristics at a specific site;
-.. Seismic Risk" is used to define the risk as probability of a
structure at the project site being affected or destroyed by an
earthquake. It reflects the degree to which the structure has been
designed to cope with earthquakes.
Ground motions will be estimated using a probabilistic approach,
usually called a seismic exposure analysis. In this approach, the
probability of exceeding various amplitudes of ground motions is
estimated, taking into account the frequency of occurrence of earth-
quakes from all significant seismic sources and the attenuation of
ground motions from each source to the locations of project facili-
ties. Earthquakes of various magnitudes, up to the magnitudes of
maximum credible events, will be considered. Attenuation relation-
ships will be derived from examination and analyses of earthquake
recordings made in similar tectonic environments and in similar
subsurface geologic conditions, including available recordings from
Alaska. wee has recently conducted a comprehensive state-of-the-art
analysis of seismic exposure in Alaskan offshore areas (OASES, 1978).
The results and data of this previous study, which included assess-
ment of activity for major onshore faults (e.g., Denali Fault, Castle
Mountain fault) as well as offshore faults (e.g., Benioff zone), will
be extremely valuable to our progress study.
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AS-84
The end products of this subtask will consist of estimates of the
probability of exceedance during selected time periods (e.g., 100
years) of various levels of ground motions at the locations of each
proposed major dam and other major facilities. For the long trans-
mission lines and major access roads, the probability estimates will
be given for appropriate segments of the systems. Probability levels
and corresponding amplitudes of ground motions that may be considered
in selecting project seismic design criteria will be discussed. For
the dams, ground motion criteria will be consistent with ground
motions associated with maxirou~credible earthquakes. For less
critical project components, ground motion characteristics having a
higher probability of exceedence would be used as design criteria.
(c) Discussion
It is widely recognized that neither the occurrence of future earth-
quakes nor the resulting ground motions at a site can be predicted
with great accuracy even when the best available data and technology
are employed. The fact is recognized in the above approach and con-
siderable attention will be devoted to determining the reliability of
the estimated design criteria.
The key interrelationships of this subtask and others are the
following:
Projections of earthquake recurrence and identification of maximum
credible earthquakes is an essential input to this subtask and will
be accomplished in Subtask 4.06. The results of this subtask consti-
tute essential input to Subtask 4.08 (Preliminary Analysis of Dam
Stability) and Subtask 4.15 (Identification of Soils Susceptible to
Seismically Induced Failure Along the Transmission Line and Access
Road Routes) •
The products of this task include the following:
-Estimates of the probability of exceedance during selected time
periods (e.g., 100 years) of various degrees of ground motion at
the location of each proposed major dam and other major project
components.
- A discussion of and recommendations for project ground motion
design criteria.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (WWC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$31,000.
2,000
Total Subtask 4.07 ••••••••••••••••••• $33,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 24 through 52 ~~----------------~
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Subtask 4.08-Preliminary Analysis of Dam Stability
(a) Objective
A5-85
Make preliminary evaluations of the seismic stability of proposed
earth, rockfill and/or concrete dams during maximum credible earth-
quakes.
(b) Approach
These evaluations will be of a conceptual nature and will be under-
taken as input to Task 6 design studies and determinations of the
impact of seismicity on dam costs; i.e., on the requirements for
design and/or treatment of foundations, design of dams, construction
materials and placement requirements.
The preliminary evaluation of the adequacy of designs of earth and
rockfill dams to resist seismic ground shaking will involve the
following steps:
-Evaluation of strength characteristics under seismic loading con-
ditions of in situ soils left in place in earth or rockfill dam
foundations.
-Evaluation of key static and dynamic properties of embankment
materials. Particularly important properties are the static and
cyclic strength characteristics and permeability.
-Assessment of the potential for landsliding and large deformations
through embankment or concrete dams and foundation during or
following seismic ground shaking.
The cyclic strength characteristics of foundation soils will be
assessed on the basis of field boring data and laboratory index and
classification test data. For unfrozen sands in the foundation, blow
counts from standard penetration tests (SPT•s) in borings will be
used to evaluate the resistance of the soils to liquefaction. Prop-
erties of embankment materials will be estimated on the basis of
general description, grain size distributions, and compaction
requirements of proposed borrow materials. This information will be
supplemented by the experience of the project staff and information
obtained from published data. In addition, six dynamic cyclic tests
of proposed embankment or foundation materials are planned. The
results of these tests will be compared with data for similar
materials available in published literature and in the files of wee.
The potential for landsliding in the embankments and their founda-
tions will be analyzed using simplified analytical approaches and
experience in similar studies. The key evaluations that are needed
for the assessment of dam behavior are:
-the potential for generation and dissipation of excess pore water
pressures in the materials during and following an earthquake
(strongly dependent on permeability).
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the potential for sliding using conventional stability analysis
approaches and taking into account the effect of seismical1y-
induced pore pressures on soil and rockfill strengths.
(c) Discussion
The execution of this subtask will involve an iterative approach.
For the initial designs, the experience of the project team will be
used to establish broad guidelines for material selection and design.
These designs will be evaluated for seismic stability. These results
will then be used to modify, if necessary, the designs which in turn
may be checked by a second evaluation.
The interrelationships of this subtask to others are the following:
-input is required from Subtasks 4.07-Preliminary Ground Motion
Studies, Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration and Task 6 -Design
Development. Task 6 input will be particularly required from the
subtasks dealing with preliminary designs of dams and descriptions
of construction materials and placement requirements.
-outputs of this subtask will be used as input to Task 6 -Design
Development, particularly for preliminary dam design.
The products of this subtask are:
-Pr.el iminary evaluation of the seismic stabi 1 ity of embankment cross
sections subject to maximum credible earthquake loading.
-Recommendations for changes in preliminary embankment cross
sections, material compaction requirements, and foundation treat-
ment if required for increasing seismic stability.
-Preliminary evaluations of requirements for design of concrete dams
(arch or gravity, as required).
The required dynamic analyses of the embankments will be undertaken
under Task 6 activities. Woodward-Clyde Consultants will provide
ongoing consulting services for these analyses, under Subtask 4.14.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$40,000
4,000
Total Subtask 4.08 ••••••••••••••••••• $44,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 50 through 85
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Subtask 4.09 -Long-term Seismologic Monitoring-Program-
(a) Objective
A5-87
Develop a long-term seismologic monitoring program to provide a
continuing source of seismological data for refinement of the seismic
design aspects of the project during the detailed design phase.
{b) Approach
Based on the experience gained with the short-term seismologic moni-
toring program (Subtask 4.02) a detailed program of long-term moni-
toring and data analysis will be designed for implementation prior to
the license award. This program will be designed to determine the
background level of seismic activity on shallow crustal faults
pertinent to the evaluation of possible reservoir-induced seismicity.
Emphasis will therefore be placed on providing an inexpensive,
reliable data collection facility and flexibility analysis
procedures.
(c) Discussion
The long-term seismologic monitoring program will be developed on the
understanding that arrangements will be made by APA for continued
operation of the system and evaluation of data through construction
of the Susitna Project and beyond. Appropriate documentation and
operating manuals will be prepared for this purpose.
(c) _ Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$ 61,000
1,000
Total Subtask 4.09 ••••••••••••••••••• $ 62,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 100 through 130
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Subtask 4.10 -Reservoir Induced Seismicity
(a) Objective
Refine the estimate for the potential for reservoir induced
seismicity made in Subtask 4.03.
(b) Approach
The additional field data collected in Subtask 4.11 will be
incorporated in a reassessment of the work done in Subtask 4.03.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) ••••••••••••••••••••• $9,000
Liaison and Review (Acres) ••••••••••• 1,000
Total Subtask 4.10 ••••••••••••••••••• $10,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 83 through 91
A5-88
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Subtask 4.ll -Seismic Geology Field Studies
(a) Objectives
Perform seismic geology field studies to identify faults that may be
active and in the vicinity of the selected dam sites.
{b) Approach
(c)
These data will be used in the final evaluation to identify the
maximum credible earthquakes on each fault, and the recurrence of
faulting and earthquakes along each fault. The results of this sub-
task will be used as input to Subtask 4.12 -Evaluation and Report-
ing. Planning of the field studies will be based on the results of
Subtask 4.05 -Seismic Geology Reconnaissance and of Subtask 4.04 -
Remote Sensing Image Analyses. We will also ensure that field
studies be pursued at features that may affect project design at
selected dam sites.
The subtask will include the following investigations which will be
specifically designed for each feature to be studied:
-geologic mapping at a scale of 1:24,000.
-trenching of selected features
-borings
-test pits
-geophysical investigations
-age dating.
Compared to the work done in Subtask 4.05, the geologic mapping will
include more detailed Quaternary data, and bedrock mapping at select-
ed places along specific lineaments and geologic features (e.g. the
Susitna fault and other features that may be fault-related). Age-
dating studies will be undertaken to aid in the identification and
correlation of geologic units. Trenches excavated across features
that may be fault-related, or borings on either side of these
features, will be used to aid evaluation of these features. The
trenching (or boring) sites will be selected during the geologic
mapping phase and will be located in areas considered robe-suitable for
assessing the nature of the faults and the degree of fault activity.
It is currently anticipated that approximately three trenching sites
will be identified, with two trenches at each site. One site will be
located along the Susitna fault, and an additional three sites along
other features that are preliminarily identified as controlling
features. During the course of the study, geophysical investiga-
tions, including seismic refraction lines and gravity or magnetic
surveys will also be undertaken to aid in locating and evaluating the
faults and the nature of the faulting.
Discussion
All of the field exploratory work outlined above is incorporated in
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The data derived from these geologic studies on controlling features
will be evaluated to assess the potential of these features as
seismic sources. This process will include refining the estimate of
the maximum magnitude of an earthquake that may occur along the
feature, the frequency of occurrence of seismic events along the
feature, the focal mechanism of the event, the distances from the dam
sites at which the event may occur, and the type of faulting and the
amount of fault displacement that may occur on these features. This
data will form the basis for design values derived in Subtask 4.12.
Products derived from this Subtask will include:
-Documentation, tabulation, and an assessment of lineaments, mapped
faults, and epicenter locations identified as potential controlling
features.
-A map (scale 1:24,000) of the selected controlling features in the
vicinity of the dam site.
- A geologic map (scale 1:24,000) and selected areas along the
controlling features.
-Trench logs or core data of excavations or borings undertaken to
evaluate the controlling features.
-The interpretation of geophysical data collected along the control-
1 i ng features.
-Estimates of the maximum earthquake, the type of faulting and the
amount of displacement that may occur during that event, the
distance of the earthquake from the dam sites, and the frequency of
occurrence of earthquakes of that magnitude along each controlling
feature.
-An evaluation of significant, related seismic effects that may
occur in the dam site and reservoir area.
(c) Level of Effect
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) ••••••••••••
Total Subtask 4.11 ...................
(d) Schedule
Weeks 64 through 95
$137,000
5,000
$142,000
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Subtask 4.12 -Evaluation and Reporting
(a) Objectives
AS-91
Refine the evaluation of the seismic environment and the earthquake
source parameters derived in Subtask 4.06, complete the reporting of
all the fieldwork and studies undertaken in Subtasks 4.01, 4.05 and
4.09 to 4.11, and provide coordination and management to Subtasks
4.09 to 4.11.
(b) Approach
All the additional field data collected for the Long-Term Monitoring
Program -Subtask 4.09, Reservoir-Induced Seismicity -Subtask 4.10
and Sesimic Geology Field Studies-Subtask 4.11 will be utilized to
refine the preliminary evaluations undertaken in Subtask 4.06. The
same basic methodolog~ as employed in Subtask 4.06 will be used.
The seismic review panel will again be convened during this subtask.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
Review Panel •••••••••••••••••••••••••
$143,000
10,000
15,000
Total Subtask 4.12 ••••••••••••••••••• $168,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 70 through 104
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Subtask 4.13 -Ground Motion Studies
(a) Objectives
Refine the estimate of ground motion characteristics made in Subtask
4.07.
(b) Approach
Based on the additional information gathered during the second year
of the study, the work done in Subtask 4.07 will be reviewed, and, if
necessary, appropriate adjustments made.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force {WCC) •••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
Total Subtask 4.13
(d) Schedule
Weeks 75 through 104
$11,000
1,000
$12,000
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Subtask 4.14 -Dam Stability Consulting Services
(a) Objective
AS-93
To provide consulting assistance to the Acres design group engaged in
the feasibility design of the dams.
{b) Approach
During the feasibility design stage Acres will undertake all the
necessary dynamic analyses required to complete the design of the
dams under Task 6 -Design Development Activities. WCC will act in a
general consul tancy role and respond to speci fie questions raised by
the Acres team. The seismic review panel will also be consulted
under this subtask.
(c) Level of Effort
Liaison and Review (WCC)
Review Panel •••••••••••••••••••••••••
$ 7,000
10,000
Total Subtask 4.14 ••••••••••••••••••• $17,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 80 through 120
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Subtask 4.15 -Soil Susceptibility to Seismically-Induced Failure
(a) Objective
A5-94
Identify those areas along the transmission line and major access
road routes that appear to be underlain by soils particularly suscep-
tible to seismically-induced ground failure such as liquefaction or
landsliding.
(b) Approach
The intent of this subtask is not to provide detailed design-level
evaluations of soil failure potential. Rather it is to identify
those areas having conditions that could significantly affect costs
of transmission lines or access roads by requiring rerouting, special
designs or contingency measures.
This subtask will be accomplished by a review of the geologic map-
ping, soils data, topographic data and estimated seismic ground
motions (Subtask 4.07) along the routes. The identification of
failure-susceptible soils will be accomplished mainly on the basis of
experience of performance of soil deposits during earthquakes.
Simplified analytical approaches and empirical correlations will be
used to aid in assessing the potential for liquefaction of unfrozen,
saturated, cohesionless sands. Possible remedial measures for areas
of high failure potential will be briefly described. These include
rerouting, special foundations, soil excavation and/or filling.
(c) Discussion
The results of this subtask will enable estimates to be made of
additional costs required for design and construction of facilities
due to seismicially-induced soil failure potential. However, if the
consequences of failure are not too severe, and/or if the probability
of damaging earthquake ground motions is low, it may be appropriate
to utilize conventional designs but to provide contingency plans and
budgets for repairs. For example, considerable lateral spreading and
settlements of access roads might be acceptable consequences during
an earthquake but would generate additional repair cost to the pro-
ject.
Inputs to this subtask will be obtained from Subtask 4.07 -Ground
Motion Studies, Subtask 5.04 -Field Program 80, and Subtask 5.06 -
Field Program 81. Outputs from this task will be utilized in the
design and costing of these facilities.
The products of this subtask are:
-Delineation on maps and/or in tabular form of areas having high
potential for seismically induced ground failure.
Brief descriptions of possible remedial measures for facilities in
areas of high failure potential.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $16,000
Support and Liaison (WCC) •••••••••••• 5,000
Total Subtask 4.15 ••••••••••••••••••• $21,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 53 through 74
A5-95
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TASK
DESCRIPTION
4.01 DATA REVIEW
4.02 SHORT-TERM
MONITORING PROGRAM
4.03, RESERVOIR-INDUCED
4.10 SEISMICITY
4.04 REMOTE SENSING
IMAGE ANALYSIS
4.05 SEISMIC GEOLOGY
RECONNAISSANCE
4.06, EVAWATION a
4.12 REPORTING
4.09 LONG-TERM
MONITORING PROGRAM
4.11 SEISMIC GEOLOGY
FIELD STUDIES
REVIEW MEETINGS
4.07, GROUND MOTION
4.13 STUDIES
4 ·06• DAM STABILITY 4.14
SOILS SUSCEPTIBLE
4.15 TO SEISMICALLY-
INDUCED FAILURE
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
IIIII• ~----· -
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1980
JUN JUL AUG
.... P.• ·--· -1-
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1981
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
-· ~-~· ~---... ~---P..• -•• -
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SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE T4.1 : TASK 4 SCHEDULE
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A5-96
A.5.6 -TASK 5: GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATION
(i) Task Objectives
To determine the surface and subsurface geology and geotechnical
conditions for the feasibility studies of the proposed Susitna
Hydroelectric Project, including the access roads and the transmis-
sion lines.
(ii) Task Output
( i i i)
( i v)
The primary outputs of Task 5 will consist of comprehensive documen-
tation of geotechnical exploration undertaken at the Devil Canyon
and Watana sites, reservoirs, and access roads and transmission line
routes. This documentation will include the following:
-geologic maps
-geologic sections
-descriptive and graphic borehole logs
-descriptive test trench logs
-field inspection borehole and test trench log
-photogeologic map
-borehole rock core photographs
-low level air photointerpretation
-seismic and resistivity bedrock profiles
-radar imagery interpretation maps
geotechnical exploration program summaries (1980, 1981, 1982)
-data summaries for
--in-hole seismic testing
--borehole camera studies
--laboratory testing
-geotechnical exploration summary reports (1980, 1981)
List of Subtasks
Subtask 5. 01 -Data Collection and Review
Subtask 5.02 -Photointerpretation
Subtask 5. 03 -Exploratory Program Design (1980)
Subtask 5.04 -Exploratory Program (1980)
Subtask 5.05 -Exploratory Program Design (1981)
Subtask 5.06 -Exploratory Program (1981)
Subtask 5.07 -Exploratory Program Design (1982)
Subtask 5.08 -Data Compilation
Subtask Scope Statements
For the purposes of this Plan of Study, the geotechnical exploratory
programs are essentially divided into first-, second-and third-year
stages (1980, 1981 and 1982). Exploratory work to be undertaken in
1982 and beyond is not included in Task 5 activities. Preparation
of the program for 1982 is nevertheless included on the understand-
ing that the 1982 program will be initiated prior to submission of
the FERC license application, but is not an essential prerequisite
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AS-97
to that submission. The 1980 geotechnical exploration program will
be designed to identify and investigate in limited detail those
geological and geotechnical conditions which will significantly
affect the feasibility of the proposed dam projects. Limited
preplanning opportunities and climatic constraints are such that
investigations in 1980 will be somewhat limited in scope, and the
data limited in detail. Emphasis will therefore be placed on
identifying and investigating to the maximum extent the most adverse
geotechnical conditions encountered.
The objectives of the 1981 geotechncial exploration program will be
to investigate in more detail those geological and geotechnical
conditions, both general and adverse, which will significantly
affect the design and construction of the proposed dam projects.
Exploration along the routes selected for the access roads and
transmission lines will also be undertaken in 1981. Although the
scope of the exploratory work and the data produced in 1981 will
still be somewhat limited, the exploratory program will be designed
to establish with reasonable confidence the feasibility and total
cost of the project, access roads and transmission lines. The
exploratory program in 1982 will be yet more detailed. This and
subsequent programs will be aimed at providing greater certainty in
the design of major dams and structures with a view towards further
insuring the safety of structures while minimizing potential project
cost overruns due to unforeseen geotechnical design conditions. The
geotechncal exploration programs will be specifically designed to be
complementary to the work already completed.
The geotechnical exploration programs in the field will also be
severely constrained by difficulties of access and maneuverability
of equipment imposed by weather conditions and the requirements for
environmental preservation. Full account has been taken of these
constraints in developing this Plan of Study.
A detailed discussion of the individual subtasks follows. It should
be stressed that the exploration program design is based on the
assumption that Watana and Devil Canyon are the selected sites.
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Subtask 5.01 -Data Collection and Review
(a) Objective
A5 ... 98
Collect and review all existing geological and geotechnical data
pertaining to the Susitna Project area, including the access road and
transmission line corridors and the Susitna River basin.
(b) Approach
Data to be collected at this stage include, but are not limited to
the following:
-previous regional and site geological mapping and studies
-published or unpublished geological and geotechnical data and
reports from federal, state, academic or private sources
-air photos and high 1 evel ERTS photos of the project area,
including the proposed access road and transmission line
-geophysical survey, remote sensing and seismicity studies and data
pertaining or relevant to the project
A short field visit will be made to the proposed damsites for prelim-
inary geologic interpretation. This will assist in making the pre-
liminary damsite and dam alignment selections in Task 6. This in
turn will determine the design of the exploratory investigation
program. The data and results of review will be assembled into a
brief report with appropriate Appendixes. These documents will be
made avail able for subsequent use by all project design and study
groups.
Borehole rock cores from previous investigations will also be
examined in Anchorage. Contacts will be made with the University of
Alaska to gather geologic and geotechnical data. A check will be
made for mining interests in the project areas. Data pertaining to
geological and geotechnical problems associated with the construction
of large embankments, access roads and transmission lines will be
collected. Discussions will be held with the U.S Corps of Engineers
concerning details of the past field studies.
This task will be undertaken by Acres• Anchorage staff with appropri-
ate support from R&M, whose local knowledge is substantial.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••• $ 13,000
Task Force (R&M) ••••••••••••••••••• $ 10,000
Total Subtask 5.01 ••••••••••••••••• $ 23,000
-1
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A5-99
-~}
(d) Schedule
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Subtask 5.02 -Photointerpretation
(a) Objective
AS-100
Perform air photointerpretation and terrain analysis of the Watana
and Devil Canyon damsite areas, reservoir areas, construction
material borrow areas and access road and transmission line
corridors, and identify adverse geological features and geotechnical
conditions that would signficantly affect the design and construction
of the project features.
(b) Approach
Photointerpretation will be based on available air photography
obtained under Subtask 5.01, and new aerial photos of a larger scale
obtained under Task 2 for the damsites, reservoirs, and construction
materials borrow areas, access road and transmission line corridors.
The initial photoanalysis will utilize existing air photos obtained
either from private or government sources. These photos are believed
to be high level and consequently small scale. They will, however,
serve to establish preliminary surface geology, including geomorpho-
logy, geologic history, glacial geology, lithology and stratigraphy,
structural geology, permafrost characteristics and geohydrology and
engineering geology. Land forms will be identified. Alluvial or
glaciofluvial deposits of previous sand and gravel, glacial deposits
of impervious till and floodplain deposits of poorly drained, com-
pressible silty materials will be located. The distribution, quality
and stratigraphic relationships of rock types will be identified.
Photo analysis will also be used to generally delineate or infer
permafrost areas and buried channels. Groundwater regimes will also
be studied and unstable and/or erodible slopes identified.
A short field study will be required to verify the photo-
interpretation analysis. This will be performed early in the first
field season (1980).
(c) Discussion
New air photos produced under Task 2 will be available at the end of
the first field season. These low level, high resolution, large
scale photos will have two purposes:
-preparation of second year exploratory investigation program
-production of accurate topographic maps on which to base subsequent
geological mapping and design studies.
Photointerpretation under this subtask will be undertaken by Acres•
Anchorage staff and closely coordinated with the photointerpretation
v1ork done by WCC (Subtask 4.05) in order to eliminate unnecessary
duplication of work.
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AS-101
The results of photointerpretation will be documented in the form of
brief summary reports and appended photographs and maps to highlight
the principal findings.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••• $ 40,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 5 through 41
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Subtask 5.03 -Exploratory Program Design {1980}
(a) Objective
A5-102
Design the geotechnical exploratory investigation programs for 1980
for Watana and Devil Canyon damsites, dam construction materials, and
reservoir areas, and along the access road route.
{b) Approach
The design of the various exploratory investigations will be based on
the results of the data collection and review study (Subtask 5.01}
and the air-photo interpretation study (Subtask 5.02}. Input from the
preliminary access road studies under Task 2 will also be required.
Generally, these exploratory investigations will consist of geologic
mapping, auger drilling and sampling, test trenching, seismic and
resistivity studies, airborne radar imagery techniques and laboratory
testing. In cases where environmental damage is a problem or
accessibility is poor, test trenches will be replaced by shallow
auger drilling by helicopter. The design will specify the following
details:
-area to be geologically mapped
-position and extent of seismic and resistivity lines
-areas to be investigated by airborne radar imagery techniques
-types and numbers of laboratory tests.
Investigations for access roads will be confined to geologic mapping
and radar imagery. Table A5.3 and A5.5 detail the type and extent of
investigations and laboratory testing that are currently proposed
elsewhere. The design of the exploratory investigations will be
flexible enough to permit changes during the execution of the work.
These changes will become evident as the field studies proceed.
{d) Discussion
Work under this subtask will be performed by Acres• Anchorage staff
with support in logistical planning provided by R&M and close liaison
with wee.
In the design of the exploratory investigations, full advantage will
be taken of the extensive investigations previously undertaken.
These include drilling, test pitting, geologic mapping and seismic
surveys by the US Corps of Engineers at Watana damsite, and the
drilling investigations and seismic studies at Devil Canyon by the US
Corps of Engineers and the US Bureau of Reclamation.
-Watana Site
At the Watana damsite area, 17 boreholes have been drilled for a
total of 3,340 feet and 11 boreholes have been drilled, totalling
1,815 feet in the right bank spillway and buried channel area.
Reconnaissance reservoir mapping and fault mapping has been per-
formed by Kachadoorian. A total of 19 auger and diamond drill
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AS-103
holes and 26 test pits have been made in the construction material
areas. A total of 69,600 feet of seismic surveys has also been
completed.
These investigations have tentatively shown the Watana site to be
suitable for an earth and rock-fill dam. The dam foundation
contains small shear zones but no major shear zones have been
found. Construction materials appear to be available and suitable.
Although the important Susitna fault traverses the reservoir, no
active faults have as yet been proven in the reservoir. There has
been a suggestion that the Tsusena Creek alignment downstream of
the dam may represent discontinuity of some kind. Discontinuous
permafrost exists locally. Overburden depth in the riverbed at the
site appears to be less than 80 feet. A deep buried and
potentially leaky channel exists in the right abutment.
Further studies at Watana are required to prove the absence of
major faults in the riverbed and in the abutments, to delineate
permafrost zones and identify its characteristics, prove the
availability and suitability of the construction materials, confirm
good quality rock in the spillway and powerhouse area and define
the buried channel and identify its geohydrologic properties.
-Devil Canyon Site
At the Devil Canyon damsite, 13 boreholes totalling 1,350 feet have
been drilled in the dam area and another eight boreholes totalling
735 feet have been drilled in the left abutment buried channel
area. Nineteen test trenches have been excavated in potential
borrow areas. A total of 3,300 feet of seismic surveys have been
performed. Although there has been little geologic mapping of the
abutments at Devil Canyon, the investigations have shown this site
to be suitable for a concrete gravity structure.
Major shear zones have not been found in the dam foundation area
but minor shear zones are present. Although no active faults have
been found in the reservoir, a deep buried channel exists in the
left abutment. Some potential construction material areas have
been indent ifi ed.
Further studies at Devil Canyon are required to prove the absence
of major faulting in the riverbed and abutments or active faults in
the reservoir. Studies are also needed to determine the site
geology in more detail, to delineate and evaluate the left abutment
buried channel and to prove the availability and suitability of
construction materials.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $ 15,000
Support and Liaison (R&M) ••••••••••• $ 3,000
Total Subtask 5.03 •••••••••••••••••• $ 18,000
•~----------------~
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AS-104
l (e) Schedule
l Weeks 12 through 20
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Area
Damsite
Dam Con-
struction
Materials
Reservoir
Basin
L.J
TABLE A5.3
PROPOSED GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATORY PROGRAM -1980
E xp 1 oration
Geologic Mapping
Geophysical (seismic
and resistivity)
Diamond Drilling
Airborne radar
imagery
Geologic Mapping
Portable Auger
Drilling
Geophys i ca 1 ( seismic
and resistivity)
Test Trenches
Geologic Mapping
Portable Auger
Drill i ng
Geophysical (seismic)
Diamond Dri 11 i ng
Airborne Radar
Imagery
PRUJECI SIROCIORES/FACILIIIES
Dev1l Canyon Dam & Reservo1r Watana Dam & Reservo1r
yes
3-900ft. lines at buried channel
site
3-Oblique 450ft. lines across river
channe 1
2-1,000 ft. lines on right abutment
1000 ft.
+ 3,500 ft. at right and left abutment
and saddle dam site
One established and two new borrow
areas
yes
20 -10 ft. deep holes in the t\tiO
proposed borrow areas
2-1,000 ft. lines in the two pro-
posed borrow areas
30 trenches in the three borrow areas
yes
10 -10ft. deep holes
2,000 ft.
100 ft.
10,000 ft.
yes
1 -5,000 ft. line at proposed
spi 11 way site
2 -Oblique 1,500 ft. lines
across river within upstream
portion of dam
600 ft.
+ 4,000 ft. at right and left
abutments
Four established and two new
borrow areas
yes
20 -10 ft. deep holes in the
two proposed borrow areas
2 -1,000 ft. 1 ines in the t\-10
proposed borrow areas
30 trenches in three of borrow
areas
yes
10 -10 ft. deep holes
6,000 ft. at site of right bank
relict channel
100 ft.
20,000 ft. )::o
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Subtask 5.04 -Exploratory Program (1980)
(a) 0 bj ect i ve
AS-106
Perform initial surface and subsurface investigations at Watana and
Devil Canyon sites and reservoir areas and access road routes to
establish general and specific geological and foundation conditions.
(b) Approach
The program will essentially be designed to:
-obtain more details on the surface and subsurface geology and
foundation conditions at the Watana and Devil Canyon damsites.
-complete the preliminary evaluation of the availability and
suitability of the various construction materials required, i.e.
fine and coarse aggregate, fine and coarse rockfill, impervious
earth fill, pervious and semipervious granular fill and riprap.
-determine the surface geology and geotechnical conditions in
limited detail to the Watana and Devil Canyon reservoir areas.
-provide preliminary geologic assessments of the proposed access
road routes.
Field work programs will generally be designed by Acres• Anchorage
office personnel with input from the Buffalo design group as needed.
Seismologic input will be provided by WCC and logistical support by
R&M. All field operations will be performed by R&M with appropriate
technical inspection and supervision by Acres and to a lesser extent
the wee staff.
(c) Damsites
The proposed exploratory investigations will supplement previous work
in establishing general and specific surface and subsurface geologic
and foundation conditions at the Devil Canyon and Watana damsite
areas.
The investigations will comprise geologic mapping, diamond drilling
geophysical, seismic and resistivity studies and airborne radar
imagery, to substantiate and augment the available information on:
-depth, distribution, type, stratigraphy and properties of over-
burden
-distribution, type, quality, degree of weathering and permeability
of bedrock
-location, orientation, width, continuity, filling characteristics
and capability of major discontinuities in bedrock such as faults
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AS-107
-orientation, frequency, opening, continuity and filling of joints
in bedrock
-permafrost characteristics including location, temperature profile
and soil type
-groundwater regime
Emphasis will be placed on locating and studying adverse geological
features. Such features will include faults, excessive depths of
overburden in riverbeds and buried channels which will significantly
affect the design and cost of a dam project at a given site.
The geologic mapping at Watana and Devil Canyon damsites will be
undertaken to supplement and verify the previous geological mapping
carried out by the U.S. Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Geological
Survey (Kachadoorian).
The photointerpretation (Subtask 5.02) will be checked in the field,
and adverse geologic features and conditions suggested in the
photointerpretation will be investigated on the ground. The geologic
mapping will utilize the most recent topographic maps. Aerial photos
and survey lines normal to the river will be used as reference in the
field. The geologic mapping will be performed primarily by Acres'
Anchorage office personnel with assistance from R&M.
Geophysical seismic refraction and resistivity studies will be
carried out primarily to determine bedrock depth in deep overburden
areas such as buried relict channels and the riverbed area. This
work will be done at both damsites. Seismic work can be misleading
in permafrost regimes and resistivity provides a reasonable
a 1 tern at i ve.
Bedrock depth profiles will be prepared from these studies.
The geophysical work, including the interpretation, will be
undertaken by R&M, with review and liaison by Acres' Anchorage office
personnel.
(d) Construction Materials
The exploratory investigations for construction materials will
comprise geological mapping, portable auger drilling, geophysical
seismic and resistivity studies, test trenching and laboratory
testing.
The geologic mapping, drilling, trenching and geophysical work will
generally be used to establish the limits, depth, stratigraphy, type
and properties of the borrow materials. The limits, type and proper-
ties of potential quarry rock will be similarly determined. The
explorations will also serve to verify the photointerpretation and
previous studies by the Corps of Engineers. Groundwater and
permafrost conditions will be investigated and extensive soil
sampling undertaken. Rock outcrops wi 11 be mapped and test trenches
excavated by small track-mounted backhoes to a depth of about 13
feet.
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AS-108
Geophysical techniques such as seismic refraction and resistivity
will be used to prove the depth of the potential borrow materials and
the groundwater depth. Airborne radar imagery or low sun angle air
photos will be used to assist in identifying the permafrost areas.
A moderate amount of laboratory testing of the borrow material will
be conducted at this stage. The testing will comprise routine soil
identification tests including unit weight, moisture content, consis-
tency, Atterberg limits and gradation.
Standard Proctor compaction tests will also be performed on pervious
and impervious material and permeability of compacted impervious
materials assessed. Some dynamic shear strength tests under high
confining pressures will also be performed on impervious and pervious
materials. Potential concrete aggregate samples will be tested for
sodium sulfate soundness, acidity and Los Angeles abrasion character-
istics.
All field exploration work under this subtask will be undertaken by
R&M. Laboratory testing on borrow material will be performed by R&M
with some assistance from wee •
Design liaison, supervision and review will be provided by Acres'
Anchorage office personnel.
(e) Reservoir Areas
The exploratory investigations to be carried out for the reservoir
areas will include geologic mapping, portable auger drilling and
geophysical seismic refraction surveys.
The primary aim will be to map those geological features and geotech-
nical conditions in the reservoir area which may seriously affect the
reservoir performance. Such features may include previous buried
channels or faults in the reservoir rim which may jeopardize the
reservoir watertightness, faults which may be activated under reser-
voir impounding and natural slopes which may become unstable or
erodible with reservoir impounding or reservoir drawdown.
The geologic mapping will be on a reconnaissance scale. The air-
photo interpretation (Subtask 5.02) will be checked on the ground and
specific adverse features suggested in the photointerpretation wi 11
be investigated. The distribution, type and properties of overburden
and bedrock materials will be checked against the photointerpreta-
tion. Portable auger drills will be used to drill shallow holes to
assist in establishing the subsurface geology and geologic history.
Low sun angle air photos or airborne radar imagery techniques will be
utilized to help delineate general permafrost areas which may cause
unstable slopes once the reservoir is impounded. Specific test areas
will be identified in which auger borings utilizing a modified eRREL
core barrel will be used to sample permafrost. Thermal probes will
be installed in the holes to determine temperature profiles.
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A5-109
No buried channels have been found to date in the reservoir rim. If
such channels are suggested in the photointerpretation, geophysical
seismic studies will be initiated to determine the depth and nature
of the overburden and channel widths.
A relatively minor amount of laboratory testing will also be under-
taken in this phase. This will comprise routine soils identification
tests on those samples taken in the reservoir studies.
All field and laboratory work undertaken under this subtask will be
performed by R&M. Design liaison, supervision and review will be
provided by Acres• Anchorage office personnel.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••• $
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••• $
Helicopter Transport •••••••••••••••• $
231,500
712,000
250,000*
Total Subtask 5.04 ••••••••••••••••••• $ 1,193,500
*Includes Task 7 requirements
(d) Schedule
Weeks 20 through 40
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Subtask 5.05-Exploratory Program Design (1981)
(a) Objective
A5-110
Design the geotechnical exploratory investigation programs for 1981
for Watana and Devil Canyon damsites, dam construction materials and
reservoir areas, and for the selected access road and the transmis-
sion line routes.
(b) Approach
The design of the 1981 program will be determined to a large extent
by the results of the 1980 investigations and other preliminary
design activities in progress.
The 1981 investigations will be by means of a confirmation of the
1980 program of geologic mapping, auger drilling and sampling, test
trenching, seismic and resistivity studies, airborne radar imagery
techniques and laboratory testing. In addition, diamond drilling and
in-hole seismic, borehole camera and instrumentation studies will be
performed. The program will be designed to obtain more detailed
information on the subsurface geology in general, on rock mass defor-
mation properties, rock mass jointing characteristics and slope move-
ment. Locations, depths and inclinations of the boreholes and
methods and priorities of drilling will be defined, together with
identification of which holes will be tested by in-hole seismic
methods or studied by borehole camera.
The design of the exploratory investigations for the access road and
transmission line will also be performed in this subtask. The access
road and transmission line corridors will traverse terrain varying
from flat, wet marshland and soft overburden to dry, sloping rock
hillsides. No field investigations have been performed to date on
the access road or transmission line.
Explorations along the selected transmission and access road routes
will include drilling and sampling. To comply with environmental
constraints, it is anticipated that this exploration will be under-
taken using track-mounted hollow-stem auger drill rigs during the
winter months of February and/or March. In wooded areas, helicopter
supported auger rigs will be used to permit access. Exploratory
investigations for the road will include delineation of areas of
permafrost, unstable slopes, soft foundations and availability and
suitability of construction materials. Investigations for the trans-
mission line will be similar but will also be planned to determine
probable tower foundation conditions.
Tables A5.4 and A5.5 outline the details of the proposed 1981 inves-
tigation and testing program as currently anticipated.
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AS-111
Design of the 1981 field program will take full account of the con-
straints necessary to comply with federal and state environmental
preservation and related requirements.
(c) Discussion
The program envisaged at this time has been based on selection of the
Watana and Devil Canyon sites for development. Preparation of the
program design will be closely coordinated with activities of Tasks
2, 4, 6 and 8. This will insure that the data obtained will provide
cost effective input to the selected locations and designs of major
structures, particularly the dams.
The field exploration data will be used to confirm or appropriately
modify the adopted design criteria for embankment construction
materials and foundations. Emphasis will be placed on insuring the
safety of structures and the minimization of potential construction
cost overruns.
Work under this subtask will be performed by Acres• Anchorage staff
with support in logistical planning provided by R&M and close liaison
with wee seismic investigations.
{d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••• $ 35,000
Support and Liaison {R&M) ••••••••••• $ 21,000
Total Subtask 5.05 •••••••••••••••••• $ 56,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 59 through 70
TABlE A5.4
PROPOSED GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATORY PROGRAM -1981
' .......-
--------------------------------------------~--~PTIWrn-)mUcr~rs~/~FA~C~lrli"T'~~--------------------------------------
Area
Oamsite
Type of ExplorJtion -oeviTTanyonllam & Reservoir •watana Dam ITeser:::v;;;o:..-1-=r------,O,..t"'he"'r=----------
Jam Construction
Materials
.~eservoir
Basin
Geologic Happing
Oiauond Drilling
In-hole Seismic
Borehole CamerJ
Test Trenching
Auger Ori II ing
Oidlllond Drilling
Test Trench i n•J
Geologic Happing
Portable Auyer Orilliny
Diamond Drilling
Geophys ica 1/Se ism ic
Reservoir Slope!
Monitoring
yes
4 holes in right abutment (po•rer-
house and dam)
4 holes in left abutment jsaddle
ddln and diversion tonne)
3 holes in riverbed*
1500 ft.
1500 ft.
15 trenches
Three borrow areas from 1980 program
pi us t..o ne11 areas
10 -30 ft. deep holes
10 -50 ft. deep holes in five borrow
areas
30 trenches in t..o new areas
yes
10 -I 0 ft.
3 -100 ft.
1000 ft.
1 -200 ft.
deep holes
deep holes, 1 -200 ft.
slope indicators
yes
2 hoi es in rei ict channel, right
abutment
2 holes in right abutment
spillway and dam)
2 holes in left abutment (power-
house and dam)**
1000 ft.
1200 ft.
15 trenches
Six borrow areas from 1980 program
plus two new areas
12 -30 ft. deep holes
12 -50 ft. deep holes in six
borrow areas
30 trenches in t..o ne11 areas
yes
10 -10 ft.
3 -100 ft.
1000 ft.
1 -200 ft.
deep holes
deep holes, 1 -200ft.
slope indicator
Access Road
Route
{ Approx.
So miles)
Geologic Happing
Airborne Rad.rr lmager·y
Portable Auger Or-iII iny
Ito 11 ow Stem Au<Jer \
Diamond Or iII ing
ACCESS ROAD
yes
10 miles (20% of tot a I length)
25 -10 ft. deep holes
Transmission
Line Route
(Approx. 360
miles)
.'!Jjor F4ul t
lines
'IOT£5:
Geologic Happ in~
Port all I e Auger Or iII ing
llollow Stem Au~er\
Diamond Drilling
Test Trenchiny
Geophys leal ( se i s1o ic)
Gravity Survey
15 -50 ft. deep holes
TRANSMISSION LINE
yes
35 -10ft. deep holes
per 10 miles)
35 -50 ft. deep holes
per 10 miles)
FOR SEISMIC STUDY
I 2 test trenclies at six
'Avera~e depth of holes is ex~"ctecJ to be 275 feet and total drilliny length arproximately 3,025 feet, of bllich 1000 feet will be completed
comvlete in the 1980 pro~ra•~. This would increase total at site to 5,025 fee •
••Avera•)e depth of holes Is ex;·ccted to be 350 fllllt and totJI drilling lenyth approximately 2,000 feet, of bllich 600 feet will be completed in
the 1980 prO<Jram. This wouiJ increJse total at site to 5,450 feet.
(one
(one
sites
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Subtask 5.06-Exploration Program (1981}
(a) Objective
A5-113
Complete surface and subsurface investigations at Watana and Devil
Canyon sites, reservoir areas, access roads and transmission line
routes to the extent necessary to provide adequate data to confirm
project feasibility and for submission of the FERC license applica-
tion.
(b) Discussion
This program will essentially be designed to:
-complete the investigation of the surface and subsurface geology
and foundation conditions at the Watana and Devil Canyon dam site
to a level sufficient to insure safety of design of major
structures and foundations and reliable project construction cost
estimates.
-establish detailed geological conditions and geotechnical proper-
ties of potential construction material sources to insure the
adequate availability of embankment fill.
-undertake a detailed evaluation of the geological features and
geotechnical conditions in the Watana and Devil Canyon reservoir
areas to insure the safety and integrity of the impoundments.
-to determine the surface and near surface geology and foundation
conditions along the selected access road and transmission line
routes to insure technical and economic feasibility for submission
of the FERC license application.
Field work programs \'lill generally be designed by Acres• Anchorage
Office personnel with input from the Buffalo design group as needed.
Seismologic input will be provided by WCC and logistical support by
R&M. All field operations will be performed by R&M with appropriate
technical inspection and supervision by Acres and WCC staff as
necessary.
(c) Damsites
The proposed exploratory investigations at the dam sites will
comprise geologic mapping, diamond drilling, geophysical in-hole
seismic testing, borehole camera studies, test trenches and labora-
tory testing.
The exploratory methods used in this program will be generally aimed
at collecting more detailed information to augment and complement
that obtained in 1980. The surface geological mapping will be com-
pleted. Outcrops will be located by survey and mapped in greater
detail. Adverse geological features will be further investigated on
the surface. Exploratory dri 11 i ng wi 11 be performed at both sites in
the various structure areas on both abutments and in the riverbed to
determine foundation conditions. Diamond drills of the Longyear 34
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A5-114
type or equivalent will be used. Split-spoon and Shelby tube samp-
1 ing, as well as standard penetration tests will be performed in the
overburden. NX-size core will be drilled and double-tube core bar-
rels will be employed to maximize the core recovery.
Some boreholes will penetrate to a depth equal to the head to
evaluate deep seated conditions. Permeability testing will be
performed and piezometers will be installed. Major discontinuities
suggested by previous drilling or surface mapping will be further
explored by drilling and verified. Potential leakage channels, the
depth of weathered rock on the abutments and the depth of overburden
in the riverbed will be probed by drilling. Riverbed drilling at
each site will be undertaken during the winter months to take
advantage of the ice cover. Drills will be moved by helicopter.
Drilling operations will be performed by R&M with inspection and
review by Acres• Anchorage office personnel.
The evaluation of the foundation rock conditions will be further
supplemented by in-hole geophysical testing and borehole camera
studies. The in-hole geophysical testing which will be done by R & M
will provide a relative measure of the rock quality and more specifi-
cally, the deformation modulus. The borehole camera studies which
will be done by Acres will serve to evaluate the in-situ rock
jointing characteristics.
Permafrost conditions will be more closely studied with the assis-
tance of thermal probes installed in boreholes. Test trenches will
be used to assist in the geological mapping process.
Laboratory testing will be carried out for the purpose of describing
the overburden characteristics. Samples of foundation overburden
material which may be left in place beneath the dam structure will
also be tested for static and dynamic shear strength under high
confining pressure. Samples of weak, clay-filled seams in the rock
will be taken and subjected to direct shear strength testing.
Samples of rock core will be subjected to sonic velocity and for
unconfined uniaxial compressive strength tests. Laboratory sonic
velocities will be compared to the field in-hole geophysical testing.
Samples of jointed rock will also be tested for frictional shear
strength along discontinuities. Most of the laboratory testing will
be performed by R&M with some assistance from WCC and technical
supervision by Acres• Anchorage office personnel.
(d) Construction Materials
The exploratory investigations will essentially comprise diamond
drilling, test trenching and laboratory testing. Some geologic
mapping and geophysical studies \'lill also be undertaken. Emphasis
will be placed on firming up the quantity estimates and proving the
quality of available borrow materials. New borrow areas may also be
explored. Drilling will be carried out in both borrow areas and
potential rock quarries. Split-spoon and Shelby tube sampling and
standard penetration tests will be performed. Drills will be moved
by helicopter. Drilling will be done by R&M, with inspection and
review by Acres.
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AS-115
A considerable amount of laboratory testing of the borrow material
samples will be undertaken in addition to the routine soil
identification tests, Proctor compaction testing, permeability
testing ·and concrete aggregate testing, including static, dynamic and
direct shear strength testing. Strength tests will consist of
consolidatedundrained tests with pore pressure measurements on
pervious and impervious materials. The dynamic tests will also be
done under high confining pressure and on pervious and impervious
material. A limited number of direct shear tests may be made ~n
impervious materials.
Laboratory testing on the borrow materials will be performed mainly
by R&M with assistance from wee and technical inspection by Acres.
(e) Reservoir Areas
To avoid unnecessary duplication of work, this task will be closely
coordinated with the wee Task 4 studies.
The investigations to be carried comprise geologic mapping, auger and
diamond drilling, seismic refraction surveys, reservoir slope moni-
toring and laboratory testing. Adverse features identified in the
1980 program will be further explored.
A minor amount of laboratory soil identification testing will be
undertaken for the reservoir studies. These tests will provide data
which will assist in establishing the geology.
With the exception of the geologic mapping, all of the above work
will be done by R&M, with technical supervision by Acres.
(f) Access Road Routes
The exploratory investigations along the selected access road corri-
dors will comprise geologic mapping and airborne radar imagery
studies to further amplify the 1980 work. In addition, in 1981
portable auger and hollow-stem auger, diamond drilling and laboratory
testing work will be undertaken.
Preliminary access route selection studies will be undertaken in Task
2 and detailed designs under Task 6. The field investigations will
be designed to achieve a minimum level geological and geotechnical
understanding of the conditions along the selected route on a recon-
naissance scale. This will permit an assessment of the general con-
ditions as well as those problems likely ta significantly affect the
design and construction of the access road. Feasibility cost esti-
mates will then be facilitated.
Exploratory investigations will generally concentrate on the surface
and near surface soil and rock distribution, types and properties,
permafrost limits, groundwater conditions, potential landslide areas
and the availability and suitability of construction materials.
Potential bridge sites will require more detailed studies of the
abutment foundation conditions.
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A5-116
The type of investigation and scope of work for a particular type at
a given site will depend on the anticipated foundation conditions, as
determined by air-photo interpretation and geological inference, and
the foundation requirements.
The general study approach will be first to perform the hollow-stem
auger drilling and sampling at designated sites during the winter
months. A track-mounted drill can best carry out this work with
least cost and environmental damage, except in wooded areas as
previously indicated. Later, in the snow-free season, geological
mapping, airborne radar imagery, portable auger drilling and sampling
will be done. The mapping will establish the general overburden and
bedrock geology (surface distribution, types and properties) and will
verify the photointerpretation. The airborne radar imagery will be
used to delineate areas of permafrost and freedraining granular
deposits. Shallow auger holes \'lill probe the near surface geology.
Soil samples from the winter and summer drilling \'lill be selected for
routine laboratory identification tests as well as unconfined
compressive strength tests and Proctor compaction tests.
The laboratory work and most of the exploratory work will be per-
formed by R&M with geological mapping and technical supervision by
Acres' Anchorage office staff.
(g) Transmission Line Routes
The exploratory investigations along the transmission line will
comprise geologic mapping, airborne radar imagery studies, portable
auger, hollow-stem auger, diamond drilling and laboratory testing.
The most feasible transmission line route will be selected in Task 8.
The basic approach adopted to geotechnical explorations will be
similar to that for the access road route.
The investigations will be performed with specific tower foundations
in mind, i.e., anchored footings in rock, spread or mat footings in
granular deposits, piles or caissons in silt and clay. Sections of
transmission line on well-drained, granular deposits of rock will
require less detailed study. Detailed drilling and sampling, how-
ever, will be done in areas of soft, compressible or thaw-unstable
foundations. Vane shear strength testing will be required in soft
compressible foundations. In these potential problem areas, informa-
tion will be required on the type, stratigraphy and properties of the
soil foundation. Foundations of towers at points of line direction
change will require special attention due to the most stringent
foundation requirements. Foundations of towers at the ends of long
spans or on potentially unstable slopes will also require special
attention.
R&M will perform the field explorations and laboratory testing with
gelogic mapping and technical supervision by Acres.
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(h) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••• $
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••• $
Helicopter Transport •••••••••••••••• $
Total Subtask 5.06 •••••••••••••••••• $
*Including Task 7 requirements
(i) Schedule
Weeks 56 through 91
•
337,500
1,180,000
500,000
2, 017' 500
A5-117
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Subtask 5.07 -Exploratory Program Design (1982-1984)
(a) Objective
Design of the geotechnical exploratory investigations program for
1982-1984 to obtain basic design data for Watana damsite, dam
construction materials and reservoir area, and for the selected
access road and transmission line routes.
(b) Approach
A great deal of exploratory information will have been obtained prior
to 1982 and a substantial amount of safe, reliable, project component
designs undertaken prior to submission of the FERC license applica-
tion. Although this work will be adequate to insure project feasi-
bility with a reasonable level of confidence, further exploratory
work is essential to minimize the possibility of unforeseen condi-
tions which could potentially impact the safety and cost of major
structures. This exploratory work will provide the necessary input
to the ongoing detailed design work through commencement of project
construction. Based on the Corps studies to date, it is currently
anticipated that construction of the Watana diversion scheme will be
the first activity to follow award of the FERC license. The adopted
diversion scheme will in turn depend to a large extent in the layout
of the major project components. It is therefore anticipated that
following submission of the FERC license application for the Susitna
Project, further exploration investigations will be necessary to
fully determine in detail all significant geologic and geotechnical
factors affecting:
-the diversion tunnels and cofferdams
-the dam and other major structure foundation treatment and designs
the avai 1 ability of adequate supplies of cofferdam construction
materials
-subsurface design conditions at the proposed locations of under-
ground structures
-the potential for ground instability as a result of erosion
adjacent to diversion tunnel spillway and tailrace discharges
-the watertightness and integrity of the reservoir
-design of access roads
(c) Discussion
The extent and scheduling of this additional exploratory work will be
influenced to a great extent by the findings of the 1980 and 1981
programs and the development of project designs. This subtask will be
undertaken in late 1981 and early 1982 with a view to insuring con-
tinuity of exploratory work in 1982 and beyond. The major portion of
this subtask will be undertaken by Acres' Anchorage office staff with
appropriate input and support by WCC and R&M.
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AS-119
The scheduling of the 1982-1984 program will be significantly
affected by the availability of access facilities. Although certain
portions of the program can be accomplished within the same
environmental constraints as those undertaken in 1980 and 1981, other
portions of the 1982-1984 program will require the access road to be
available for use. Thus, for the purpose of this plan of study, it
is assumed that the access road will be designed and the necessary
permits obtained by commencement of the 1982 construction season.
For purposes of this plan of study, it has been assumed that the
selected access road route will commence at a staging area to be
constructed at the railroad at Gold Creek and essentially follow the
left bank of the Susitna River to the Watana site. Bridges will be
required at several ravine and river crossings. Bridge abutment
foundations will be somewhat more closely investigated than the
general alignment of the road. Slightly modified routes and bridge
sites may also be investigated. New borrow areas may be studied.
Proposed high rock and soil cuts will be explored for stability.
Further drilling may be required to firm up the permafrost
characteristics.
The 1982-1984 program of exploratory investigations for transmission
lines will comprise further hollow-stem auger drilling and sampling,
vane shear testing, laboratory testing and geological mapping, if
necessary. These tools will be used to obtain considerably more data
on the general and the geotechnical conditions which affect the
design of the transmission line.
Pump well testing in the riverbed will be required in areas of deep
and pervious riverbed overburden. This testing will be used to
estimate representative permeability values for design of riverbed
excavation dewatering systems.
The 1982-1984 laboratory testing program will be designed to
determine reliable values for the overburden properties. These data,
together with standard penetration test data will be essential in
defining the extent of removal of materials under the proposed dams.
(d) Construction Materials
More diamond drilling, trenching and laboratory testing will also be
required in the construction material areas. This program will be
designed to further substantiate the availability and properties of
rockfill, impervious, semipervious and pervious earthfill, rockfill
and rip-rap materials. Sampling will again be by split spoon or
Shelby tube. Laboratory testing as described in Table A5.5 will be
further expanded to include several large triaxial shear strength
tests in earth and rockfill under high confining loads.
(e) Reservoir Areas
The proposed 1982-1984 investigation program will be designed to
further amplify the information obtained in 1980 and 1981. Final
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AS-120
drilling and instrumentation will be completed in the reservoir
areas. The program will include diamond drilling, reservoir slope
monitoring and laboratory testing. These exploratory tc;>ols \'lill be
used to obtain considerably more detailed data on geotechnical
conditions in potential problem areas such as pervious buried
channels in the reservoir rim or unstable rservoir slopes. Further
geologicl mapping may be required for adverse features identified in
the 1981 program. Potentially unstable slopes will continue to be
monitored together with piezometric levels.
A relatively small amount of laboratory testing will be undertaken
for the reservoir area in this phase.
(f) Access Roads and Transmission Lines
The scheduling of the remaining exploration for the access roads is
such that this work will have to be completed in early 1982. For
transmission lines, on the other hand, the program can be spread over
a longer period without affecting overall scheduling of the project.
The data requirements for the design of the roads and transmission
lines, although much less in quantity than for the dams, are similar
in scope. Minimum detailed information on the overburden properties
such as compressibility, shear strength, permeability and compaction
characteristics, and on the bedrock, such as rock quality and
strength, will be required for the basic design.
Thus, for the access road and transmission line areas, additional
foundation drilling, sampling and laboratory testing will be required
in this program. Firm quality and quantity estimates of construction
materials will be required for the access road. In the transmission
line, drilling and sampling will be required for each tower founda-
tion. Foundation drilling for the access roads and transmission
1 ines is best undertaken in the \'linter months by means of a track-
mounted, hollow-stem auger diamond drill.
(g) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••
Support and Liaison (R&M) •••••••••••
$ 50' 000
22,500
Total Subtask 5.07 •••.•••••••••••••• $ 72,500
(h) Schedule
Weeks 95 through 120
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Subtask 5.08 -Data Compilation
(a) Objective
AS-121
Assemble all geotechnical exploratory data into documents suitable
for inclusion in relevant project reports and licensing
documentation.
(b) Approach
Data to be compiled will include:
-air-photo interpretation
-geologic mapping
-seismic and resistivity data
-borehole logs
-auger hole logs
-test trench logs
-airborne radar imagery data
-laboratory test data
The test trench logs will be prepared to describe the overburden in
the borrow areas. Laboratory testing data will be incorporated into
these logs. Seismic and resistivity profiles will be prepared to
show the ground surface and the bedrock topography. This information
will be combined and used to prepare preliminary site geology maps
and sections which will form the basis for the preliminary geotechni-
cal assessments to be performed in Task 6. The maps and sections
will show the overburden and bedrock surface distribution, types and
characteristics, faults, jointing, permafrost areas, potentially
unstable slope or poor foundation areas and buried channels. Geo-
logic maps will range from reconaissance scale in the reservoir areas
to 1 imited detail in the damsite areas.
Borehole and test trench logs for the 1982 program will be used to
substantiate and improave the geological maps and sections and to
show surface and subsurface geology and geotechnical conditions of
importance to the design and construction of the dams, access roads
and transmission lines.
(c) Discussion
Although R&M and wee will provide some input to this subtask, all
final compilation of data will be undertaken by Acres in its
Anchorage and Buffalo locations.
Compiled data will be attached to the periodic reports issued as the
work progresses. Detailed reports summarizing all the exploratory
investigations will be prepared at the end of each exploration
season.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••• $ 200,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 5 through 125
AS.-122
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AS-123
A.~.7 -TASK 6: DESIGN DEVELOPMENT
(i) Task Objectives
To undertake planning studies, to evaluate, analyze and review all
previous engineering studies related to hydroelectric development of
the Upper Susitna River Basin and to develop preliminary engineering
design and cost information for Watana and Devil Canyon Dam sites
with all associated intake, outlet works, spillways and power
facilities to allow preparation of a project feasibility report.
(ii) Task Output
The primary output of Task 6 will be a logical and systematic devel-
opment of the requisite project features. Alternative sites for
dams and power developments will be evaluated. Alternative
arrangements at each site will also be considered. One such
alternative will involve a 30-mile long power tunnel from Watana to
Devil Canyon to eliminate the high dam at that site. A Development
Selection Report will be issued on or about Week 65 of the Study for
review and approval by Alaska Power Authority. Preliminary findings
of the study will be discussed on or about Week 50, in order to
establish whether or not work on two dam sites should continue or
whether more viable alternatives exist and should be examined.
Design transmittals will be at appropriate points in the study. All
necessary input from parallel tasks i ncl udi ng hydrology,
geotechnical, economic, seismic, survey, and environmental studies
will be factored into the planning studies and the development of
the various features of the project. Engineering evaluation
criteria and project definition will be developed. If sites are
found to be technically viable, economically feasible and
environmentally acceptable, additional studies and investigations
will be conducted to establish the feasibility of the project and
the optimum scale and sequence of development.
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 6.01 -Review of Previous Studies
Subtask 6.02 -Investigate Tunnel Alternative
Subtask 6.03 -Evaluate Alternative Susitna Developments
Subtask 6.04 -Evaluation of Arch Dam at Devil Canyon Site
Subtask 6.05 -Development Selection Report
Subtask 6.06 -Watana/Devil Canyon Staged Development Alternatives
Subtask 6.07-Preliminary Watana Dam Alternatives
Subtask 6.08 -Preliminary Devil Canyon Dam Alternatives
Subtask 6.09 -Establish Watana Design Criteria
Subtask 6.10 -Establish Devil Canyon Design Criteria
Subtask 6.11 -Preliminary Design Watana Dam
Subtask 6.12 -Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Dam
Subtask 6.13 -Dam Selection Report
Subtask 6.14 -Spillway Design Criteria
Subtask 6.15 -Watana Spillway Alternatives
Subtask 6.16 -Devil Canyon Spillway Alternatives
Subtask 6.17-Preliminary Design Watana Spillway
Subtask 6.18-Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Spillway
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Subtask 6.19 -Spillway Selection Report
Subtask 6.20 -Access and Camp Facilities
Subtask 6.21 -Watana Diversion Scheme
Subtask 6.22 -Devil Canyon Diversion Scheme
Subtask 6.23 -Optimize Watana Power Development
Subtask 6.24 -Optimize Devil Canyon Power Development
Subtask 6.25 -Optimize Dam Heights
A5-124
Subtask 6.26-Preliminary Design Watana Power Development
Subtask 6.27-Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Power Development
Subtask 6.28 -Power Development Report
Subtask 6.29 -Watana General Arrangement
Subtask 6.30 -Devil Canyon General Arrangement
Subtask 6.31 -Feasibility Report
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
Plate T6.1 illustrates the interrelationship of various subtask
studies and the logical input of various other tasks. The subtasks
have been specifically arranged to make maximum use of input from
various other tasks including Tasks 1 through 5 and 7 through 9.
A detailed discussion of the objectives, the methodologies and
associated costs and scheduling for each subtask follows. Note that
for the purpose of this plan of study, it has been assumed that only
Watana and Devil Canyon sites will be considered for additional
field exploration and analysis. However, in the initial subtasks,
all possible sites and modes of development on the Susitna will be
examined to confirm that the Watana/Devil Canyon arrangement is the
most appropriate.
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Subtask 6.01 -Review of Previous Studies and Reports
(a) Objective
AS-125
Assemble and review all available engineering data, siting and
economic studies relating both to the Susitna hydropower development
and to alternative potential sites.
(b) Approach
Reports and also field reconnaissance studies generated by various
agencies including USBR, the Corps of Engineers, Kaiser and others
will be reviewed to assess the design assumptions for the sites.
Information obtained fran these reports, including reservoir storage
and power head, site evaluation, geologic and seismic conditions,
topographic features and other special physical and environmental
constraints, will be tabulated. Total potential for power development
at each site and the associated costs will be assembled in tabular
form; costs will be updated to current levels for comparison. Sites
studied will include all those identified in the previous reports.
Layouts for all sites and special constraints for each site will be
identified. All conceptual design parameters will be developed to
update the cost of each site to a uniform level in order to rank the
sites. The task will include the indexing of all basic information
that could be used in analysis under Subtask 6.03. Indexing will
include all basic information on nature, type and extent of geotech-
nical investigations previously completed, maximum level of develop-
ment considered for each site, type and size of dam selected, type and
size of spillway considered for each site studied, and on-line dates
considered in the previous reports. Other data to be indexed will
include reservoir storage, average, maximum and minimum f1 ow, regula-
ted flow, power capacity and energy development at each site, equiva-
lent construction costs and other factors, such as special environ-
mental and seismic impact on each site.
(c) Discussion
The level of study previously undertaken for each site varies consid-
erably, not only with respect to geotechnical investigations and
preliminary planning, but also in relation to hydrologic and economic
assessment. Project ranking techniques and cost updating criteria
will necessarily have to include additional cost parameters and
analysis. These data will be used at the specified level of develop-
ment as an input to Task 6.03.
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A5 ... 126
In order to meet the overall objectives of the subtask, a critical
review and assessment will be made of all technical information on
power capacities; and other constraints for the development of each
site will be identified. Previous work has identified six dam sites
for which ranges of heights and power installation have been
considered. These sites will be analyzed in order to select the
projects which are both technically feasible and economically
attractive for initial construction and are compatible with the plan
for hydropower development of the entire basin. It is likely that
some of the sites will be rejected in initial screening because of
poor foundations or because of very high cost of development.
Previous studies have demonstrated that the Watana and Devil Canyon
sites are probably the most favored; but if the studies under this
task indicate otherwise discussions with the Alaska Power Authority
will be scheduled immediately.
All cost data from the previous reports will be updated to 1980 cost
levels. As project costs are highly dependent not only upon site
foundation conditions, size of spillway and outlet works, but also
upon whether a low level outlet is provided, costs will be adjusted to
a basically common design.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (R&M) •••••••••••••••••••••
$ 50,000
5,000
Total Subtask 6.01 ••••••••••••••••••• $ 55,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 25 through 40
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AS-127
Subtask 6.02 -Investigate Tunnel Alternatives
(a) Objective
To investigate the feasibility of a scheme for development of the
Susitna River eliminating the Devil Canyon project by the substitution
of a tunnel-supplied power plant fed from the Watana dam site.
(b) Approach
A preliminary review of the proposed Watana/Devil Canyon development
of the Susitna River suggests that a feasible alternative, which would
allow the elimination of the major reservoir formed by the Devil
Canyon dam, would comprise the construction of a power tunnel starting
at, or near, the currently proposed Watana site and terminating at a
power plant near the proposed Devil Canyon site as illustrated in
Plate T6.2.
In addition to the reduced environmental impact brought about by the
elimination of the Devil Canyon dam and lake, the tunnel alternative
would eliminate major dam, reduce the size of one power plant, and
allow a much larger proportion of the construction work to be located
underground, shielded from severe Alaskan winters.
Potential disadvantages of the tunnel alternative include loss of
power output due both to head losses in the tunnel and to the neces-
sity to maintain flow in the river between Watana and the lower power
plant tailrace. The considerable length of the tunnel would require
the provision of several construction adits with corresponding
environmental impacts during construction.
In order to make an initial assessment as to whether this alternative
should be carried forward into more detailed evaluation, the following
activities are proposed:
(1) On the basis of the material assembled in Subtask 6.01, a number
of tunnel alternative arrangements will be identified. Some
preliminary concepts are shown in Plate T6.2. Several others
incorporating different tunnel alignments and intake/power plant
locations will be identified.
(2) These initial alternatives will be subjected to a gross screening
to eliminate those least likely to meet economic, technical or
environmental requirements. Preliminary layouts will be develop-
ed for those remaining and major dimensional and design charac-
teristics will be established.
(3) Preliminary quantity and cost estimates will be prepared for the
selected tunnel alternatives, together with corresponding cash
flows.
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AS-128
(4) Estimates of capacity and energy for each of the alternatives
will be developed.
(5) The most attractive of the tunnel alternatives will be compared
from the technical, economic, and environmental standpoints with
other options for the river development identified in Subtask
6.03.
(c) Discussion
The tunnel alternative to the Devil Canyon project would appear, from
initial review, to have some rather attractive features which may
warrant careful evaluation. From the environmental standpoint, the
elimination of the very large Devil Canyon reservoir must be a very
significant step. This may, of course, be offset to some extent by
the increased live storage to be provided at Watana and by the
possible wider spread of construction activity during tunnel construc-
tion. Initial "order of magnitude" cost estimates sean to indicate at
least a trade-off level of cost for the tunnel alternative, without
assessing the impact on the schedule and power generation capabilities
of the long power tunnel.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $63,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 30 through 50
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Subtask 6.03 -Evaluate Alternative Susitna Developments
(a) Objective
AS-129
To identify the most appropriate scheme for development of the Susitna
River on the initial basis of technical feasibility and cost.
(b) Approach
Primary input for this subtask from the cost and technical standpoints
will be derived from the review of previous studies (Subtask 6.01) and
from the investigation of the "tunnel alternatives" (Subtask 6.02).
Further input will be provided from the hydrological studies under-
taken in Task 3 and from the public participation program carried out
under Task 12. This subtask will involve the development, comparison
and subsequent ranking of all reasonably feasible combinations of
sites and power facilities identified either in the previous studies
or in the course of Acres studies to this time. Economic parameters
for a range of dam heights and power installations will be developed
for each site and for the complete river development; these will be
analyzed by computer to identify the most promising scheme.
Specific activities will include:
-Evaluation of six previously identified sites including Susitna I
and II, Denali, Vee, Watana and Devil Canyon and other sites, for
which data will be obtained from the review of literature (Subtask
6.01).
-Data on rated head, regulated flow, yield and power available from
previous reports for these sites will be developed and the value and
cost of power for each site will be compared. Only previous layouts
and engineering information generated will be evaluated.
-Data on foundation conditions, availability of construction
materials, limits of development of each site, access conditions,
seismic and environmental conditions for each site will be reviewed
in site-ranking studies.
-Sites with extremely poor foundation conditions and other serious
constraints related to seismic or environmental impact will be
rejected.
- A summary report on this ranking study will be prepared.
(c) Discussion
By this stage of the study, costs of alternative power and energy will
be available for economic comparison and development of cost-benefit
ratios of each individual site, and by combination for each set of
developments discussed above. It would appear from previous studies
that the combination of Watana and Devil Canyon sites is the most
promising development, and it is expected that the results of this
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A5-130
work will verify this. However, if the results of the study indicate
otherwise, the layout, costs and details of the alternative arrange-
ment will be brought to the same level as the studies for the 1979
report by the Corps of Engineers for the Watana and Devil Canyon
sites. The evaluation will rank the sites or the combination of
various sites with power capability at each, and establish associated
costs and cost-benefit ratios for each combination studied. Alterna-
tives will include combinations of Watana dam sites and power tunnels.
The results of these studies will be documented in the form of a
memorandum which will form a basis for further studies. The report
will explain the mechanics of the evaluation process and the rationale
of specific site and combinations of sites, foundation suitability,
availability of construction materials, economic comparison from
cost/benefit analysis indicate the environmental impact on each such
site. The selected alternative will be that which proves to be the
most favorable for development of the Upper Susitna Basin.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $60,400
Task Force (TES) Included in Task 1 •••
Total Subtask 6.03 •••••••••••••••••••• $60,400
(e) Scheaule
Weeks 40 through 60
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Subtask 6.04 -Evaluation of Arch Dam at Devil Canyon Site
(a) Objective
AS-131
To make a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of an arch dam at
the Devil Canyon site.
(b) Approach
The original development at the Devil Canyon site recommended by the
Corps of Engineers incorporated a 635 foot high double curvature thin
arch dam with a crest length of 1,370 feet. Following critical
comment by the OMB, the Corps, in their Supplemental Feasibility
Report (1979), proposed alternative which would replace the arch dam
with a more costly gravity dam. The primary rationale .was the reduced
sensitivity of the gravity dam to foundation and abutment conditions.
We will critically review the feasibility of an arch dam at the Devil
Canyon site from both economic and technical aspects, as well as the
overall safety aspect.
The review and evaluation will comprise:
(a) Assembly and review of all available material relating to the
arch dam design recommended in the Corps• report and earlier in
Bureau of Reclamation reports.
(b) A critical examination of all geotechnical data relating to the
foundation and abutment conditions at the proposed dam site.
These data may well include further information obtained in the
course of the ongoing field investigations.
(c) A critical review of the seismic conditions at the site, particu-
1 arly in the 1 ight of material developed in the course of Task 4
Seismicity Studies.
(d) A review of current design practice in relation to high arch dam
design in seismically sensitive areas.
(e) The development of the draft design of an arch dam appropriate to
the conditions at Devil Canyon. Design will be accompanied by
associated schedule and cost estimate, including impact on asso-
ciated structures.
(f) Review of proposed design by Special Consultants and modifica-
tions as required.
(g) Final evaluation of feasibility of the arch dam from the techni-
cal, economic and safety standpoints and development of a recom-
mendation as to whether an arch dam or another design of dam
should be carried through to the licensing documentation •
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AS-132
(c) Discussion
The arch dam design at Devil Canyon was supplemented with an alterna-
tive conventional gravity design by the Corps in the 1979 Supplemental
Report. Economic feasibility of the project using more conservative
design approaches was demonstrated. An underlying concern regarding
the safety of arch dams in high zones is evinced by the recent
decision regarding the Auburn dam.
However, it is of interest to note that as reported in a recent issue
of Water Power and Dam Construction, April 1979, not one failure of a
concrete dam directly caused by earthquakes has ever been recorded.
Linear analytical techniques for evaluation of the response of con-
crete structures to seismic forces have evolved, the most widely used
being the finite element technique. Acres recently utilized this
technique to evaluate the Karun high arch dam proposed in Iran with a
height of 325 meters. In general, concrete dams perform very well
when subjected to earthquakes. Of the types available, arch dams
generally have proven to perform the best and buttress dams have been
subject to the severest damage because of abrupt change in section and
the resultant stress concentrators.
The V-shape canyon with a ratio of 2.15 (width at crest level--1,370
feet to depth--635 feet) is favorable for a double curvature arch dam.
As an example, the experience of dam building in Japan can be cited.
The average seismic intensity experienced at various types of Japanese
dams (in 12 point scale) is:
-gravity dams •••••••••••••••• 9.8
-arch and arch gravity ••••••• 10
-rockfill dams ••••••••••••••• 8.5
Such high arch dams as Kurobe (186m), Nagovado (155m), Iagisawa
(131 m), Takane (130 m), Kawamata (120m) and others were built in
areas with earthquake intensity 10 to 11 points.
There are a number of approaches which can be used to condition the
abutments of arch dams to weaknesses of the rock. Stresses in the
foundation may be reduced, not only by increasing the abutment thick-
ness of the arch, but also by using abutment pads. In addition to
being a very satisfactory means of spreading arch thrusts, abutment
pads provide an efficient means of bridging faults and other weakness-
es in the foundation. Abutment pads are applied on the world•s
highest arch dams at Ingury (U.S.S.R. 271 m) and were proposed for the
Auburn dam (U.S.A. 209 m).
Severe weather conditions will cause serious problems for both the dam
types. Besides the necessity to prevent freezing and cracking of
concrete during construction, a serious consideration will be consoli-
dation of the dam body and rock base.
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AS-133
In Russian dams built in Siberia, grouting joints between monoliths
were replaced by slots 1.2 m wide backfilled with concrete after
cooling the monolith below the average annual temperature (the average
annual temperature in the core of the dam is 2°C to 3°C higher than
the average annual temperature of the area). If the area average
temperature is below zero, the concrete should be cooled to a tempera-
ture of not more than +1 to +2°C. Such a procedure involves a long
time and high cost. The Russian Mamakan and Zeya dams are hammerhead
type {buttress type). This type of dam provides easy access to the
slots from the hollow spaces. Concreting of the slots is performed
after warming up the surfaces of slots by means of electric heaters.
After filling the reservoir, the temperature of the dam body will rise
and the concrete plugs will be compressed.
Another problem is prevention of the negative effect on the stress
state of the dam caused by freezing of the downstream part of the dam.
Static analysis and model tests performed for gravity dams located in
Siberia (annual average temperature -2°C to -4°C) showed that for the
winter, the frost can penetrate to the center of the dam, causing
opening of the horizontal joints and, as a consequence, tensile
stresses on the upper face of the dam (reductions in the compressive
stresses of up to 30 percent were demonstrated). For this reason,
hammerhead or massive buttress dams with heating inside the hollows
were built in Russia (Mamakan, Zeya, Bratsk, Buchtarma) instead of
massive gravity dams •. At the Mamakan dam, the electric heating system
is in operation for one to one and a half months a year, and the
capacity of the heaters is 80 kW. Another method of preventing freez-
ing is to insulate the downstream face of the dam.
Consolidation of an arch dam is much easier because arch dams do not
have longitudinal construction joints. Concreting of the slots after
cooling the monolith below the average temperature will produce a
similar effect to heating gravity monoliths. In general, arch dams,
since they are more flexible and smaller volume working structures,
can cope more easily with severe temperature conditions than gravity
dams.
Nonetheless, some improvements of the presently proposed arch dam are
likely to be necessary.
(a) An abutment pad should be used. It functions as a transition
structure between arch and rock, and as such, may be thickened,
widened and reinforced as necessary. In addition, the abutment
pad may be used to improve symmetry of the canyon profile.
(b) A two centered dam layout with two separate pairs of lines of
centers, one for each side of the dam, should be used to cope
with the unsymmetrical shape of the canyon.
(c) The slenderness of the dam is ~~5 6 = 0.135
{base thickness to height), and it requires reevaluation in
light of seismic and temperature conditions.
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The slenderness coefficient should probably be increased to 0.16
and the base thickness to 0.16 x 635 = 101.6 feet (31 m).
Note, however, that even if it is considered that an earthfill,
rockfill dam or concrete-gravity dam should be considered for FERC
licensing application, some background information should be developed
for an arch dam. Later studies may possibly indicate technical
feasibility or economic and environmental desirability, and the option
to revert to the arch design should be maintained open for as long as
possible.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $13,400
(e) Schedule
Weeks 45 through 65
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Subtask 6.05 -Development Selection Report
(a) Objective
A5-135
To document the results of the initial studies undertaken to establish
the optimum development of the Susitna River.
(b) Approach
This task will essentially comprise the detailed documentation of the
work undertaken in Subtask 6.03 to compare and evaluate alternative
means of developing the full hydroelectric potential of the Susitna
River. The end product report will, in addition to providing APA with
an interim recommendation as to the continued direction of the study,
be an essential vehicle for the transmission of information to other
tasks of the overall study, and in particular to Task 7 -Environ-
mental Studies, Task 8 -Transmission Studies and Task 9 -Cost
Estimates and Schedules.
The principal activites in this subtask will comprise:
-Assembly and review of material developed in Subtasks 6.01 through
6.03.
Assembly and review of material developed in other parallel tasks to
date, with particular reference to environmental studies (Task 7),
and to Tasks 3 through 5 covering hydrology, seismicity and geotech-
nical exploration. Of particular interest from these parallel
studies will be the preliminary identification of major impacts on
the feasibility of various alternatives under study.
-Assembly of a draft report incorporating the key findings of the
studies to date and putting forward draft recommendations for the
direction of continuing studies.
-Detailed review of the draft report with APA and Engineering Review
Panel.
Finalization and issue of report •
(c) Discussion
This report will be developed in close consultation with the APA and
will be issued as a public document. A key facet will be the recom-
mendation, arising from the studies in Subtask 6.01 through 6.03, as
to whether or not the Watana/Devil Canyon combination is the most
appropriate mode of development of the Susitna River. The balance of
the study program set out in this Plan of Study has been assembled on
the assumption that Watana/Devil Canyon will be selected. Should this
not prove to be the case, a major reassessment will have to be made of
the scope, cost and schedule for the balance of the work program lead-
ing to license application.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $14,000
External Review Panel ••••••••••••••••• 20,000
Total Subtask 6.05
(e) Schedule
Weeks 50 through 65
$34,000
AS-136
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Subtask 6.06 -Watana and Devil Canyon Staged Development
(a) Objective
A5-137
Review the potential for staged development of Watana and Devil Canyon
to best meet projected power and energy requirements and develop a
staged construction plan.
(b) Approach
It is to be expected that the rate of load growth in the geographical
area to which the Susitna Project will contribute will be such that it
may be possible to obtain significant economies by a carefully-staged
sequence of construction and power facility installation. This con-
struction sequencing will have to be appropriately integrated with
basic construction scheduling, diversion and impounding requirements
for the two developments. The starting point and primary source of
input data for this subtask will be the evaluation of alternative
modes of development completed under Subtask 6.03. The principal
activities to be undertaken include:
-From the power studies undertaken in Task 1, the anticipated rate
(or range of rates) of load growth will be established and agreed
upon with APA.
-Using the scheme of development recommended in Task 6.04 as a basis,
a series of alternative sequences of development will be assembled.
These alternative sequences will incorporate phasing of dam, power
plant and transmission construction designed to match the rate(s) of
load growth obtained above.
-Preliminary cost estimates will be developed for each stage of each
of the development sequences.
-Estimates will be prepared of power and energy output throughout
each sequence of development.
-Construction cost estimates will be converted to annual cash/flow
figures.
The comparative economics of the various sequences will be compared
on a net present worth basis using Acres• ECON computer program to
identify the most economic alternative. The comparisons will be
made for a range of interest and discount rates.
-Other aspects of the two or three most attractive alternatives will
be examined to assess potential environmental impacts.
-The most appropriate sequence of development for preliminary design
of the Watana and Devil Canyon projects will be selected and design
transmittal for APA review will be prepared •
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A5-138
(c) Discussion
The ultimate sequence of development could involve partial-height dam
construction, as well as partial installations of power plant capa-
city. Those sequences which involve operation at intermediate water
levels will require not only that special provisions be made in intake
and spillway designs, but also that the units be capable of continu-
ous, reliable and efficient operation at part head. Preliminary lay-
out sketches will have to be prepared for each of the stages of
development for each sequence, both to ensure that any potential
construction or design problems are identified and to provide a basis
for the take-off of preliminary quantities and costs.
Although it is obviously unwise to prejudge the issue at this stage,
it may well be that any attempt to extend the construction/instal-
lation schedule to match the load demand will prove to be uneconomical
because of the high costs associated with extended maintenance or
restarting of a construction operation in the severe environment of
the Susitna River sites. Costs associated with construction in this
climate will be factored into the economic analyses.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $57,400
(e) Schedule
Weeks 60 through 75
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Subtask 6.07 -Preliminary Watana Dam Alternatives
(a) Objective
Establish the most appropriate type of dam for the Watana Site.
(b) Approach
A5-139
On the assumption that the preliminary studies completed in Subtasks
6.01 through 6.03 show that the two-dam Watana/Devil Canyon .scheme of
development is preferred, this subtask will review all previously
available data, and new information developed in the course of this
program of study to determine the most appropriate design for the
Watana Site. The following specific activities are envisaged:
-Assemble all available information for the Watana dam site with
regard to the following:
topography (from Task 2)
soil conditions (Task 5)
rock conditions (Task 5)
construction materials (Task 5)
seismic conditions (Task 4)
-Develop preliminary design of alternative dams; these may include:
concrete gravity/buttress
concrete arch
rockfill/earthfill
-Prepare preliminary layout sketches of the selected designs and
obtain preliminary estimates of principal quantities, including:
excavation (soil and rock)
grouting
concrete and formwork
rockfill/earthfill
special fill materials such as transition or core material
-Review impact of alternative dam designs on other structures
including:
diversion tunnels and associated cofferdams
--spillway and outlet works
--intake/power tunnel/powerhouse systems
Develop first-order cost estimates to measure ultimate effect on
overall cost of the facility for the various types of dam
-Develop preliminary cost estimates for alternative types of dam,
giving appropriate recognition to costs associated with:
material sources
weather conditions
labor availability
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AS-140
-Prepare construction schedules for the alternative types of dam, and
prepare annual cash flow estimates for the dams and for the signifi-
cant costs associated with ancillary structures. Prepare summarized
present-worth comparison of costs.
-Review "other" factors, such as unknown foundation conditions,
construction considerations, seismicity and environmental effects
which might influence the selection of dam type.
-Assemble and assess results of subtask analyses, and select type of
dam for recommendation to the Engineering Panel and APA for ongoing
studies.
(c) Discussion
The design proposed by the Corps of Engineers for the Watana dam
comprises an 810 foot high rockfill structure with an inclined central
impervious core; the core, and a "semi-porous fill" zone, is flanked
by two fine/coarse filter zones. The Corps reports indicate that
explorations to date have demonstrated the availability of sufficient
quantities of material for the core and semi-pervious zones, and
suggest that rockfill for the shells will be obtained from the excava-
tions for the spillway and from quarries opened for the purpose.
The purpose of this subtask will essentially be to review the dam
selection made by the Corps in the light of the preliminary studies
and additional field exploration carried out to date during this study
program. It is, of course, recognized that a rockfill/earthfill dam,
which can be constructed from locally available materials and which
may be less sensitive to unknown foundation conditions, is most likely
to be the best choice for a site of this type. However, it will be
appropriate to make a careful review of this selection before proceed-
ing further with the design program to ensure that certain other
features of concrete-type dams, such as reduced intake, spillway and
diversion costs, might not offset the apparent advantages of the
rockfill/earthfill design.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••.•••••••.••• $41,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 60 through 75
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Subtask 6.08 -Preliminary Devil Canyon Alternatives
(a) Objective
A5-141
Establish the most appropriate axis and type of dam for the Devil
Canyon Site.
(b) Approach
If the preliminary studies completed in Subtasks 6.01 through 6.03
show that the two-dam Watana/Devil Canyon scheme of development is
preferred, this subtask will review all available data, collected
previously, and new information developed in the course of this
program of study to determine the most appropriate design for the
Devil Canyon Site. Subtask 6.04 provides input for reviewing the
feasibility of an arch dam at Devil Canyon. After the most favorable
alternative is selected, various axes for the dam will be selected
for economic comparison. The following specific activities are
envisaged:
-Assemble all available information for the Devil Canyon dam site
with regard to the following:
topography (from Task 2)
soil conditions (Task 5)
rock conditions (Task 5)
construction materials (Task 5)
seismic conditions (Task 4)
-Develop preliminary design of alternative dams; these may include:
concrete gravity/buttress
concrete arch (using, if appropriate, material developed in
Subtask 6.04)
rockfill/earthfill
-Prepare preliminary layout sketches of the selected designs and
obtain preliminary estimates of principal quantities, including:
excavation (soil and rock)
grouting/draingage
concrete and formwork
rockfill/earthfill
special fill materials such as transition or core material
-Review impact of alternative dam designs on other structures
including:
diversion tunnels and associated cofferdams
--spi 11 way and outlet works
--intake/power tunnel/powerhouse systems
Develop first-order cost estimates to measure ultimate effect on
overall cost of the facility for the various types of dam
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AS-142
-Develop preliminary cost estimates for the alternative types of dam,
giving appropriate recognition to costs associated with:
material sources
weather conditions
labor availability
-Prepare construction schedules for the alternative types of dam, and
prepare annual cash flow estimates for the dams and for the
significant costs associated with the ancillary structures. Prepare
summarized present-worth comparison of costs.
-Review "other" factors, such as unknown foundation conditions,
construction considerations, seismicity and environmental effects
which might influence the selection of dam type.
-Assemble and assess results of subtask analyses, and select type of
dam for recommendation to Engineering Panel and APA for ongoing
studies.
(c) Discussion
The original design recommended by the Corps of Engineers for the
Devil Canyon site was a double curvature arch dam; as discussed in
Subtask 6.04. This was subsequently supplemented by an alternative
conventional gravity dam to ensure that the estimate contained
sufficient cost to allow construction of either type should site
conditions allow. The feasibility of the construction of an arch dam
will be re-examined specifically in Subtask 6.04, and should results
of that work indicate no reason why it should be eliminated from
further contention, it will be included amongst the alternatives
ex ami ned here.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $30,400
(e) Schedule
Weeks 60 through 75
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AS-143
Subtask 6.09-Establish Design Criteria for the Watana Development
(a) Objective
To establish preliminary design criteria for the Watana hydroelectric
development.
(b) Approach
Documentation of the following criteria related to the design of the
Watana development will be initiated in this subtask:
-Hydraulic: -reservoir levels
-storage volumes
-rule curves
-power flows
-Geotechnical: -foundation conditions
-foundation treatment requirements
-construction materials properties
-seismic design conditions
-slope stability requirement, soil and rock
-Structural: -loading conditions
-uplift pressures
-wind 1 oads
-temperature conditions and loads
-material design properties
-stability analysis procedures
-Mechanical: -turbine design requirements
-power plant mechanical systems
-gate design requirements
-crane design requirements
-Electrical: -generator design requirements
-power plant electrical systems
-transmission requirements
-ancillary electrical equipment requirements
.,. Genera 1: - design codes and standards
-special Alaska or site-related requirements
-transportation limitations
-ice conditions
(c) Discussion
It is anticipated that the assembly of this design criteria document
will be undertaken over the period that the designs of the dam,
spillway and power plant are developed, and that this document will
provide the foundation of the design program in work subsequent to the
license applications.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $66,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 80 through 95
AS-144
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AS-145
Subtask 6.10 -Establish Design Criteria for the Devil Canyon Development
(a) Objective
To establish preliminary design criteria for the Devil Canyon
hydroelectric development.
(b) Approach
Documentation of the following criteria related to the design of the
Watana development will be initiated in this subtask:
-Hydraulic: -reservoir levels
-storage volumes
-rule curves
-power flows
-Geotechnical: -foundation conditions
-foundation treatment requirements
-construction materials properties
seismic design conditions
-slope stability requirement, soil and rock
-Structural: -loading conditions
-uplift pressures
-wind loads
-temperature conditions and loads
-material design properties
-stability analysis procedures
-Mechanical: -turbine design requirements
-power plant mechanical systems
-gate design requirements
-crane design requirements
-Electrical: -generator design requirements
-power plant electrical systems
-transmission requirements
-ancillary electrical equipment requirements
-General: - design codes and standards
-special Alaska or site-related requirements
-transportation limitations
-ice conditions
(c) Discussion
It is anticipated that the assembly of this design criteria document
will be undertaken over the period that the designs of the dam,
spillway and power plant are developed, and that this document will
provide the foundation of the design program in work subsequent to the
license applications.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $57,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 80 through 95
A5-146
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A5-147
Subtask 6.11 -Preliminary Design of Watana Dam
(a) Objective
To prepare the preliminary design and associated cost estimate and
construction schedule for the Watana Dam.
(b) Approach
This subtask will be initiated once the preliminary study of alterna-
tive dam sections, undertaken in Subtask 6.08, has been completed and
approved. The primary input to this subtask, once the type of dam has
been established, will be the results of the field investigations
(Task 5) and the seismic studies (Task 4). Cost estimating data will
be provided through Task 9. Specific activities to be undertaken will
include:
-Assembly and review of most recent field and seismic study data;
-Preparation of a preliminary layout of the dam dimensioned to meet
the basic requirements of the project design criteria;
-Development of appropriate preliminary design details, including
grouting and pressure relief provisions, foundation and abutment
preparation as required by the basic dam design within the context
of the geotechnical conditions;
-Preparation of preliminary stability analyses for the critical
conditions set out in the preliminary design criteria document
(Subtask 6.09). Geotechnical design parameters to be provided on
the basis of results obtained from the laboratory tests carried out
in Task 5. Specific conditions will depend upon the type of dam
selected, but for a rockfill dam with a central core, would typical-
ly include:
end of construction conventional slope stability analysis
rapid drawdown conditions utilizing residual pore pressures and
conventional stability analysis
maximum W.L. and seismic loads will be evaluated by dynamic
analysis utilizing excess pore pressure generation application
tests
Stress and deformations will be examined by finite element
analysis
-Review and adjustment of design to accommodate anomalies indicated
in the course of the stability studies undertaken above
-Reservoir studies, including:
reservoir slope stability assessment in relation to thawing
permafrost and generation of high pore pressures
reservoir slope stability during seismic events, including impact
on liquefaction-sensitive soils and mass instabilities
snow slide assessment
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AS-148
-Computation of quantities and development of estimate of cost for
the dam and associated cofferdams and diversion tunnels
-Development of dam construction schedule
-Preparation of material for input to dam selection report
(c) Discussion
In the development of the dam design, the following key aspects will
be taken into account:
(1) Foundation and Abutment Conditions
Study of foundation and abutment conditions will include assess-
ment of the available information on overburden, bedrock, struc-
tural geology including identification of local shear zones,
faults and joint sets and the consolidation and strength
characteristics. Based on the parameters from the assessment,
the design will determine foundation seepage, permanent pressure
relief, foundation treatment, con sol idat ion and curtain grouting
requirements, abutment stability, shaping of abutments, over-
burden and rock excavation requirements and excavation dewater-
ing. Special considerations will be given to excavation of loose
riverbed alluvium, talus materials near abutments.
(2) Construction Materials
Study in detail the availability and suitability of construction
materials and their methods of exploitation for earth/rockfill
and concrete dams and other associated concrete structures.
Various sources of impervious material as well as a rock quarry
for rockfill materials and concrete aggregates will be investiga-
ted in the field. Evaluation of the field data and laboratory
test results will be done to determine the suitability of the
construction materials and the parameters to be used in the
design. Placing problems of impervious fills due to wet weather
and cold climatic conditions will be studied on a preliminary
basis. Shear behavior of impervious and shell materials will be
studied under dynamic and high-confining stresses.
(3) Seismic Effects
Damages to dams during earthquakes can occur as deformation of
the embankment collapses slopes, cracks cores and loosens the
soil masses. Conventional methods cannot be employed for any-
thing other than the collapse of slopes. In order to study the
other two problems, it will be necessary to study the stresses
and deformations produced in embankments at the time of an
earthquake. The magnitude of deformations and stresses that
develop will depend on the time history of inertia forces induced
by the sudden ground displacements during an earthquake. A
1 ogical method of design requires:
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AS-149
- a determination of the variation of inertia forces with time
-an assessment of the embankment deformations and stresses
induced by these forces •
Simplified numerical techniques which are comparable to dynamic
finite element analysis such as the Characteristic Method in
combination with other simplified methods, will be used for the
seismic analysis.
The ground motion characteristics, the cyclic stress-strain data
and the dynamic material properties obtained from Task 4 studies
will be utilized in the seismic design of earth/rockfill dams and
embankments. The following measures will be included in the
design to preclude the possibility of failure or major damage
during an earthquake:
-avoidance of major faults in the foundation
-provision of sufficient vertical and horizontal drainage
-provision of ample freeboard
-use of wide transition zones of filter materials which are not
vulnerable to cracking
use of wide cores of materials with self-healing and erosion
resistant properties
-appropriate provisions for handling wave effects due to earth-
quakes or landslides into the reservoir
-provision of appropriate crest details to minimize erosion
-appropriate measures· to prevent slope failures or sliding of
the dam on its foundations
-construction of well-compacted cofferdams to buttress main
section
(4) Permafrost Studies
Permafrost studies will include application of the state-of-the-
art in permafrost to the dam design, assessing the data from the
field investigations and determining permafrost conditions on
foundation and abutments and on the proposed foundation treatment
such as grouting.
(5) Dam Sections
The design of dam fill sections will involve study of layouts,
zoning arrangements for-earth/rock-fill dams, optimization of dam
slopes, requirements for filters, drains and slope protection
riprap. Detail stability analyses, static and dynamic will be
done for various loading conditions such as end of construction,
long-term steady seepage and rapid drawdown. Dynamic loading
conditions will be studied as mentioned in Section 3 under seis-
mic effects. The design will include settlement and seepage
analyses in the fill and foundations and determine the type and
scope of instrumentation to measure the performance of the
structure.
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AS-150
(6) Construction Seguence and Method
The $tudy will evaluate the effects of construction sequence and
methods such as staged construct ion on cost and schedules. Also,
it will determine effects on materials availability, method of
placement and design of dam zoning and cofferdams and other river
closure procedures. Construction period will be largely
influenced by climatic conditions in the project region. This
will particularly affect the placing of impervious fills and
overall construction time of the structure. The study will
include assessing the number of wet days during a construction
season and the number of days of freezing in a year that will
prohibit placing.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $120,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 85 through 110
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Subtask 6.12-Preliminary Design of Devil Canyon Dam
(a) Objective
A5-151
To prepare the preliminary design and associated cost estimate and
construction schedule for the Devil Canyon Dam.
(b) Approach
This subtask will be initiated once the preliminary study of alterna-
tive dam sections, undertaken in Subtask 6.08, has been completed and
approved. The primary input to this subtask, once the type of dam has
been established, will be the results of the field investigations
(Task 5) and the seismic studies (Task 4). Cost estimating data will
be provided through Task 9. Specific activities to be undertaken will
include:
-Assembly and review of most recent field and seismic study data;
-Preparation of a preliminary layout of the dam dimensioned to meet
the basic requirements of the project design criteria;
-Development of appropriate preliminary design details, including
grouting and pressure relief provisions, foundation and abutment
preparation as required by the basic dam design within the context
of the geotechnical conditions;
-Preparation of preliminary stability analyses for the critical
conditions set out in the preliminary design criteria document
(Subtask 6.10). Foundation design parameters to be provided on the
basis of results obtained from the laboratory tests carried out in
Task 5. Specific conditions will, of course, depend upon the type
of dam selected, but for a concrete gravity dam would typically
include:
conventional stability and sliding analyses and stress distribu-
tion on foundation
determination of response of the concrete dam to seismic forces
stress and deformations will be examined by finite element
analysis
-For the embankment section stability analyses as discussed in
Subtask 6.11 will be performed.
-Review and adjustment of design to accommodate anomalies indicated
in the course of the stability studies undertaken above
-Reservoir studies, including:
reservoir slope stability assessment in relation to thawing
permafrost and generation of high pore pressures
reservoir slope stability during seismic events, including impact
on liquefaction-sensitive soils and mass instabilities
snow slide assessment
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AS-152
-Computation of quantities and development of estimate of cost for
the dam and associated cofferdams and diversion tunnels
-Development of dam construction schedule
-Preparation of material for input to dam selection report
(c) Discussion
In the development of the dam design, the following key aspects will
be taken into account:
(1) Foundation and Abutment Conditions
Study of foundation and abutment conditions will include assess-
ment of the available information on overburden, bedrock,
structural geology including identification of local shear zones,
faults and joint sets, and consolidation and strength character-
istics. Based on the parameters from the assessment, the design
will determine foundation seepage, permanent pressure relief,
foundation treatment, consolidation and curtain grouting require-
ments, abutment stability, shaping of abutments, overburden and
rock excavation requirements and excavation dewatering. Special
consideration will be given with regard to excavation of loose
riverbed alluvium, and talus materials near abutments.
(2) Construction Materials
Study in detail the availability and suitability of construction
materials and their methods of exploitation for earth/rockfill
and concrete dams and other associated concrete structures.
Various sources of impervious material as well as rock quarry for
rockfill materials and concrete aggregates will be investigated
in the field. -Evaluation of the field data and laboratory test
results will be done to determine the suitability of the con-
struction materials and their parameters to be used in the
design. Placing problems of impervious fills due to wet weather
and cold climatic conditions will be studied on a preliminary
basis. Shear behavior of impervious and shell materials will be
studied under dynamic and high-confining stresses.
(3) Seismic Effects
For the concrete dam, the seismic impact and r~sponse will be
evaluated by dynamic, finite element techniques commonly adapted
for such analyses. Stress concentration and deformation in the
body of the dam or at the foundation will be evaluated. Damages
to dams during earthquakes can occur as deformation caused by
shear failure in the concrete section of the dam.
The seismic effect on the embankment section is discussed in
Subtask 6.11 and is not repeated here.
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A5-153
(4) Permafrost Studies
Permafrost studies will involve application of the state of the
art in permafrost to the dam design. Data from the field inves-
tigations will be assessed to determine permafrost conditions in
foundation and abutments, and to estab 1 ish the proposed founda-
tion treatment such as thawing, grouting, etc.
(5) Dam Sections
The design of concrete dam sections will involve study of lay-
outs, jointing pattern and other concrete details,and for the
fill dam, zoning arrangements, optimization of dam slopes,
requirements for filters, drains and slope protection riprap.
Detailed stability analyses, static and dynamic will be done for
various loading conditions such as end of construction, long-term
steady seepage and rapid drawdown. Dynamic loading conditions
will be studied as mentioned in Task 4 under seismic effects.
The design will include settlement and seepage analyses in the
fill and foundations and will determine the type and scope of
instrumentation to measure the performance of the structure.
(6) Construction Sequence and Method
The study will evaluate the effects of construction sequence and
methods such as staged construction on cost and schedules. Also,
it will determine its effects on materials availability, method
of placement and design of dam zoning and cofferdams and other
river closure procedures. The construction period will be
largely influenced by varying climatic conditions in the project
region. Acres is particularly experienced in cold weather
construction techniques for large dams. These conditions will
most certainly affect the placing of impervious fills and
concrete and the overall construction time of the structure. The
study will include assessing the number of wet days during a
construction season and the number of days of freezing in a year
that will prohibit placing.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••.•••.•••• $105,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 85 through 110
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Subtask 6.13 -Dam Selection Report
(a) Objective
A5.,.154
Prepare a report summar1z1ng the results of the study dealing with the
selection and preliminary design of dams and reservoirs for the
Susitna Development.
(b) Approach
The primary input to this report will be derived from the preliminary
design development studies undertaken under Subtasks 6.11 and 6.12.
The report will address the following principal topics for each of the
dams considered:
-principal hydraulic, geotechnical and structural design criteria
-selection of type of dam
-geology and foundation conditions
-staged construction considerations
-basic design concept
-stability analyses
-diversion and construction conditions
-construction materials
-reservoir conditions
-construction schedule
-estimate of cost
The report will be submitted in draft form to the Engineering Panel
and to APA for review prior to finalization.
(c) Discussion
This report, which will contain major technical input to the license
application, will provide a focus not only for the work undertaken in
a number of the previous subtasks in Task 6 but also for data develop-
ed in other primary tasks such as Tasks 4 -Seismic Studies and Task 5
-Geotechnical Exploration.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••
External Review Panel ••••••••••••••••••
$33,000
20,000
Total Subtask 6.13 ••••••••••••••••••••• $53,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 100 through 115
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AS-155
Subtask 6.14 -Spillway Design Criteria
(a) Objective
To establish the basic spillway and diversion design criteria for the
Watana and Devil Canyon dam sites.
(b) Approach
Basic design criteria will be established and reviewed with APA and
other State and Federal Agencies. These basic criteria define the
accepted degree of risk to flood damage and include:
-Spillway design flood. A design flood hydrograph of a high proba-
bility of succeedence such as the 10,000 years flood. The service
spillway would be sized to accommodate the flood without the
reservoir water level encroaching on the required dry freeboard.
- A catastrophic flood event.
maximum flood. The service
spillways would be designed
would be allowed to rise to
Normally specified as the probable
spillway and, if required, emergency
to pass this flood but reservoir levels
dam crest level.
-Spillway cavitation criteria. A specification of the magnitude of
design flood hydrograph above which limited cavitation/erosion
damage will be accepted.
-Downstream erosion criteria. A specification of the magnitude of
design flood above which erosion damage requiring subsequent
remedial work will occur downstream.
-Freeboard criteria. A specification of the severity of the climatic
and reservoir landslide event for which adequate dry freeboard is
required. Climatic events which affect freeboard are high winds and
it is usual to specify a design wind velocity having a return period
of say 100 years.
-Landslides
Landslide events due to seismicity or other causes are more diffi-
cult to deal with quantitatively. It is also often uneconomic to
allow sufficient freeboard to prevent overtopping due to a reservoir
slide. On the Mica dam project, in British Columbia this was the
case and the reservoir crest was specifically designed to withstand
a limited amount of overtopping. We will undertake a brief study to
determine the freeboard requirement for such slide events and assess
the economic impact of providing adequate freeboard versus protect-
ing the dam crest. Input to this study would be derived for the
study outlined in Task 3. Based on the results of this study the
required freeboard and crest protection will be recommended.
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A5-156
-Diversion flood criteria. Brief economic studies will be undertaken
to determine the economic level of flood protection during the
diversion stages • Hydrologic and hydraulic input would be derived
from the Task 3 studies and would include open water flood condi-
tions as well as flood levels under ice cover and ice jam condi-
tions.
-Low level outlet criteria. A study would be undertaken to determine
the requirement for a low level outlet and, if necessary, the
capacity for such an outlet. Aspects that would be considered
include:
downstream water quantity and quality requirements
control of reservoir filling rate
requirement for emergency drawdown.
Once these basic criteria are finalized the information would be
issued as a design transmittal.
(c) Discussion
The design criteria described above are those usually adapted by Acres
for the design of 1 arge dams and we recommend them for the Susitna
Project.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $18,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 70 through 80
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Subtask 6.15 -Watana Spillway Alternatives
(a) Objective
AS-157
Examine alternative potential spillway arrangements for the Watana
site, and select the most appropriate for subsequent design develop-
ment.
{b) Approach
Primary input for this study will be obtained from:
-Task 3 -Hydrology
-Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration
-Subtask 6.14 -Spillway Design Criteria
Specific activities will include:
-Assembly and assessment of input data
-Preliminary layout of alternative spillway arrangements to meet the
requirements set out in the design criteria document within the
constraints imposed by the dam and other facilities
-Take-off of quantities and computation of costs of alternative
arrangements
-Examination of operational aspects of the spillway alternatives and
identification of possible measures required to mitigate adverse
effects
-Selection of most appropriate spillway arrangement on the basis of
net cost and operational characteristics
(c) Discussion
Having regard to the fact that the energy head to be dissipated in the
spillway works at Watana could be as much as 700 feet, and that the
safety of the entire development will depend upon the proper operation
of the spillway, the selection and subsequent design of this facility
will be one of the most critical aspects of the design development
program. The selection of the optimum spillway arrangement will
depend to a large extent on the ambient economics of the dam and
spillway combination, not only in relation to the physical layouts,
but also in relation to the potential provision of rockfill for the
dam construction from the excavations for the spillway chute.
In the current Corps of Enginee~s· designs, the spillway chute dis-
charges at right angles to the alignment of the Tsusena Creek, which
may be less than attractive from the hydraulic standpoint; however,
realignment may prove to be difficult to achieve without involving
major excavations. Present indications are that the geology of the
left (south) bank is marginally 11 better .. than that of the right bank,
and it may be possible to locate an improve orientation on this bank.
However, any scheme which involves a shorter and steeper chute will
almost certainly require concrete linings to prevent erosion under
high velocity flows: this in turn, of course, will involve major
additional costs and raises the spectre of cavitation and
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AS-158
erosion damages experienced at so many other high-head spillway
installations.
The spillway crest control structures will be of essentially conven-
tional concept, designed to accommodate appropriate ice loads/bubbler
systems. One or more gates may require heating if spillway operation
during freezing weather is required. If alternatives involving steep
chutes are considered, then it will be necessary to examine various
forms of energy dissipating structures, such as chute blocks, stilling
basins, and the like.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $71,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 80 through 95
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Subtask 6.16 -Devil Canyon Spillway Alternatives
(a) Objective
AS-159
Examine alternative potential spillway arrangements for the Devil
Canyon site, and select the most appropriate for subsequent design
development.
(b) Approach
Primary input for this study will be obtained from:
-Task 3 -Hydrology
-Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration
-Subtask 6.14 -Spillway Design Criteria
Specific activities will include:
-Assembly and assessment of input data
-Preliminary layout of alternative spillway arrangements to meet the
requirements set out in the design criteria document within the
constraints imposed by the dam and other facilities
-Take-off of quantities and computation of costs of alternative
arrangements
-Examination of operational aspects of the spillway alternatives and
identification of possible measures required to mitigate adverse
effects
-Selection of most appropriate spillway arrangement on the basis of
net cost and operational characteristics
(c) Discussion
The most recent (1979) Corps of Engineers design for the spillway at
Devil Canyon calls for a conventional arrangement discharging over the
central section of the concrete gravity dam. For the originally
proposed arch dam at this site, the Corps has proposed a ski-jump
spillway arrangement discharging at the left abutment of the dam with
the lip of the jump some 300 feet above downstream river level.
The ultimately selected arrangement of spillway will, of course, be
heavily influenced by the type and arrangement of dam selected, and
may in turn affect the selection of the dam. Various aspects
influencing the selection of a chute-type spillway arrangement are
discussed under Subtask 6.15 above. Design considerations affecting
conventional spillway structures are well documented in the litera-
ture.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $65,000
(e) Schedule
[JIRIL-__ w_ee-ks_a_s_th-ro-ugh_9_5------------------------~
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Subtask 6.17 -Preliminary Design of Watana Spillway
(a) Objective
AS-160
Design the spillway facilities and associated features for the Watana
project.
(b) Approach
From the studies in Subtasks 6.14 and 6.15, the information on spill-
way design criteria and most suitable locations will be available to
develop this subtask. We will critically review foundation conditions
of the site and examine previously generated data for the project.
Design tasks will include:
-Foundation design of the spillway, agee section, piers, spillway
channel and the chute structure including rock excavation, rock
reinforcement, concrete dental work and pressure relief facilities.
-Hydraulic design to determine optimum gate dimensions and gate
operating procedures. Development of a spillway operating rule
curve based on headwater elevations in the reservoir and gate
opening, detailed tailwater curve data and hydraulic profiles to
satisfy all operating conditions expected at the project. Determin-
ation of the shape and height of piers, walls and chute block.
-Structural details and design of bridge, piers, gates, stoplogs,
spillway channel walls and slab chute structures considering normal
maximum headwater conditions, and seismic and extreme weather
conditions.
Design of gate facilities to operate under extreme weather and ice
conditions. Both bubble formations and heating of necessary
elements will be considered for the purpose of adequate cost pro-
vision in the estimate.
-Preliminary hydraulic and structural analyses of size, shape, and
thrust requirements of the chute block; shape and trajectory of the
jet under various flow and tailwater conditions will be reviewed to
develop satisfactory solutions. Preliminary study of jet impact
will be made and data will be developed for hydraulic modelling of
the facilities.
-Appropriate arrangement and design of electrical/mechanical
facilities for hoist operation under all conditions including
emergency conditions will be developed.
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AS-161
-Safety of the spillway structure as an independent unit and as an
integral part of the overall project will be checked.
-If the dam is an embankment structure adjacent to the spillway, the
retaining walls will be designed and hydraulic approach conditions
will be reviewed.
(c) Discussion
The review of flood routing studies for project design flood, probable
maximum flood and other floods generated from Task 3 will provide data
on the rule curve for operations of the spillway facility. Gate
operation procedures will be developed to suit all flood conditions
expected at the site. Flood rule curve data will provide relation-
ships of gate opening and headwater elevation in the reservoir without
topping the structure. Hydraulic profiles of the spillway channel
will be determined fran the gate and size and type of chute will be
designed to perform satisfactorily in all conditions with minimum
environmental impact and consideration for safety of the dam and
reservoir.
{d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $86,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 90 through 115
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Subtask 6.18-Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Spillway
(a) Objective
AS-162
Design spillway facilities and associated features for the Devil
Canyon Project.
(b) Approach
This subtask involves critical review of the recommended arrangement
of the spi.llway and design having regard to foundation conditions,
location of the spillway and design project features compatible to
these conditions. Design will include:
-Foundation design of the spillway, agee section, channel and the
chute structures will include rock excavation, rock reinforcement,
concrete dental work and pressure relief facilities.
-Hydraulic design will define gate operating procedures and spillway
operating curve based on the relationship of headwater surface
elevation and gate opening. Preliminary hydraulic profile for
variable flow will define the height and size of the piers, walks
and geometery and configuration of ogee section and the chute
block.
-In case a concrete gravity dam is selected at Devil Canyon, several
kinds of energy dissipation structures will be evaluated including
ski jump, stilling basin and chute types and preliminary design will
be made of the most suitable facility recommended for the project.
In case an arch dam is recommended for the Devil Canyon project site
a plunge pool-type facility would be the most suitable arrangement.
-Structural details and design will be drawn up for bridges, piers,
gates, stoplogs, spillway channel walls and slab chute structures,
considering seismic and extreme weather conditions imposed on the
site.
Design will include prov1s1on in the facilities for gate operation
under ice conditions and extreme low temperatures and provision will
be made for heating certain facilities for satisfactory performance
of gates, hoists and guides.
-Hydraulic analyses will determine configuration of the chute and its
hydraulic performance including impact tragectory of the jet for
various flows and pressure determination near the chute. Data will
be developed for a hydraulic model testing program.
-Design will consider electrical and mechanical facilities for power
hoist operation of gates under all weather conditions.
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A5-163
-The geometry and the trajectory of the jet and its impact on landing
soil will be evaluated. Hydraulic model data will be developed for
testing in the later phases of the detailed design of the project.
(c) Discussion
Energy dissipation of about 600 feet head at the Devil Canyon site
makes the spillway structure very significant. Dispersion of waves
from the flood regulated releases of the upstream Watana dam will need
careful evaluation of its impact on the valley walls.
Extreme weather conditions at the project site will require special
design consideration during the preliminary stage. Preliminary
drawings from which quantities will be taken off will be prepared.
The design will be accompanied by the associated schedule and cost
estimate including impact on associated structures. The design will
be compatible with the hydraulic requirements and will conform with
the technical, economic and safety standards.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $82,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 95 through 115
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Subtask 6.19 -Spillway Selection Report
(a) Objective
AS-164
Prepare a report presenting the results of studies of alternative
spillway design concepts for the Watana and Devil Canyon Sites and the
selection and development of preliminary designs in each case.
(b) Approach
The spillway selection report will be assembled to document the
results of Subtask 6.14 through 6.18 dealing with consideration of
alternatives and preparation of preliminary designs for the Watana and
Devil Canyon Spillways. Primary input to the report will be provided
by memoranda prepared during the course of those studies to summarize
the work undertaken, together with appropriate drawings, cost esti-
mates and schedules.
Specific topics to be addressed in the report will include:
-basis of design flood analysis
-selected design floods
-selected spillway capacity
-selection of spillway type
-selection of discharge facilities
- flood routing analysis
-alternative spillway locations
-preliminary hydraulic design and rating curves
-optimization of crest widths/elevations
-downstream erosion control
-preliminary structural designs
-preliminary stability analysis
-foundation treatment
construction cost and schedule summaries
-flood control and operational safety
-icing considerations
(c) Discussion
The report will also include a review of the interrelationship of the
two reservoirs during floods and the advantages and disadvantages of
adopting remote control operation. The technical, economic and
environmental issues involved in the selected designs will be dis-
cussed together with recommendations for further studies to be
undertaken prior to construction, including hydraulic modelling.
Discussions will also be presented on equipment contract packaging
alternatives.
The report will provide basic input to final design of spillway
structures, including structural and hydraulic analyses, geotechnical
conditions and hydraulic design of the spillways. The report will
also address other problems needing further investigation for the
detailed design such as geotechnical design, ice jamming conditions
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AS-165
and constraints, seismic loading, possible requirements for heating
and other construction problems in extreme climatic conditions.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• $36,600
External Review Panel •••••••••••••••••• 10,000
Total Subtask 6.19 ••••••••••••••••••••• $46,600
(e) Schedule
Weeks 110 through 120
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Subtask 6.20 -Access and Camp Facilities
(a) 0 bj ect i ve
AS-166
Develop preliminary designs, arrangement drawings and cost estimates
for permanent camp and access road facilities for construction and
operation of the Devil Canyon, Watana and related project facilities.
(b) Approach
The results of access road route selection studies, surveys undertaken
in Task 2, and geotechnical exploration in Task 5 will provide basic
input to this task. The initial camp facilities also developed under
Task 2 will provide the basis upon which the camp designs will be
developed •
Ongoing Task 6 design activities together with Task 9 construction and
resource scheduling input will also be used in the development of camp
design.
Preliminary alignment profiles for roads and associated horizontal and
vertical curve design criteria will be developed. Road width, loading
criteria and data will be based on the heaviest and largest items of
power plant equipment to be shipped to the site.
Preliminary plans and profiles will define cut and fill slopes based
on geotechnical data and include designs for culverts and bridges.
Bridge and culvert alignments and designs will be based on preliminary
topographic, geologic and hydrologic input at each location. Tunnels
may be used where appropriate. A total of 27 miles of access road
to the Devil Canyon site from the area of Highway No. 3 or railroad
close to Gold Creek, are envisioned. An additional 37 miles of road
will be required from the Devil Canyon site to the Watana site.
Access roads will also be required to the air strip to each power
plant and other power facilities and to the dam and spill way for each
site.
(c) Discussion
Permits required for construction of access roads and camp facilities
will be obtained by CIRI/H&N, who will also provide support in the
development of camp designs.
Access road and permanent camp facilities will probabl,v be required at
each of the damsites. At least one permanent camp facility with all-
weather road access to all permanent installations will also be
necessary to support project operation and maintenance.
Permanent camp facilities will include permanent housing and recrea-
tion, medical and shopping facilities. This work will fonn the basis
of permitting and contract documents for access roads scheduled to be
constructed between 1982 and the end of 1987.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $ 61,000
Task Force (R&M) ) Included in
Task Force (CIRI/H&N)) Task 2
Total Subtask 6.20
(e) Schedule
Weeks 70 through 80
•••••••••••••••• 0 •• $ 61,000
A5-167
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A5.,.168
Subtask 6.21 -Watana Diversion Schemes
(a) Objective
Examine alternatives and select a river diversion plan to satisfy the
construction schedule requirements for construction of the Watana dam,
outlet works, spillway, power plant and reservoir, and prepare concep-
tual designs, drawings and cost estimates for the selected scheme.
(b) Approach
The Watana diversion scheme will depend to a large extent on the type
and size of dam selected for the ultimate development and for any
intermediate stages of construction.
For a large earth-or rockfill dam of the size currently proposed at
Watana, the diversion scheme will comprise some combination of up-
stream and downstream cofferdams and an appropriate arrangement of
tunnels, intakes and outlet structures to divert the flow. Considera-
tion will also be given to alternatives involving channel diversion
schemes in the riverbed area during a portion of the construction
period. For possible concrete dam alternatives considered under
Subtask 6.07, somewhat different design concepts will be involved.
These would most likely include diversion of river flow directly
through or over partially completed dam structural elements.
Activities undertaken in this subtask will include:
-Selection of diversion design flood and development of other design
criteria;
-Study of alternative cofferdam design concepts, heights and place-
ment met hods
Study of alternative tunnel alignments, sizes, methods of construc-
tion and lining requirements
-Review of requirements for flow control and conceptual design of
intake and outlet structures
-Consideration of icing problems upstream and downstream of the dam-
site area
-Review of foundation cut-off and treatment requirements
-Consideration of requirements for dewatering of dam foundations
-Evaluation of methods of tunnel closure for reservoir impoundment
-Conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates for the selected
diversion scheme
-Diversion flood routing analyses.
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(c) Discussion
The selected scheme will provide safe arrangements for dam construc-
tion at minimum cost. Consideration will be given to utilization of
permanent project features such as power and tailrace tunnels as
diversion facilities.
Input to this subtask will include the proposed dam construction
schedule, diversion flood flow criteria, geotechnical exploration data
and the type and location of the main dam and associated features.
Diversion flood hydrographs and tailwater rating curves for these
studies will be based on Task 3 output. The flood hydrograph data
will be reviewed and selected for consistence with the risks associ-
ated with construction of the Watana dam. Diversion studies will
determine the height of the upstream and downstream cofferdams with
associated sizes of the diversion tunnel selected for the scheme.
These studies will be used to determine an economical combination of
size of the diversion tunnel and the cofferdam height.
The severe weather conditions at this site and the imposed restric-
tions on the construction schedule associated with the relatively well
defined· seasonal flow variations of the river will impose certain
limitations on development of the design of the diversion scheme.
The crest elevation of the upstream diversion dam proposed in the
Corps of Engineers 1979 report is about 100 feet above the existing
river bed. The embankment of this cofferdam therefore appears to be
founded on about 50 feet of gravel and other pervious materials.
Construction of the embankment of the diversion dam itself is thus a
major task and would probably require its own smaller cofferdam. A
slurry trench or cut-off arrangement will probably be required to
1 imit seepage.
Diversion dewatering problems under the core of the main dam will be
aggravated because of the required excavation and removal of more than
50 feet of riverbed material.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $56,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 85 to 95
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AS-170
Subtask 6.22 -Devil Canyon Diversion Schemes
(a) Objective
Examine alternatives and select a river diversion plan to satisfy the
construction schedule requirements for construction of the Devil
Canyon dam, outlet works, spillway, power plant and reservoir, and
prepare conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates for the
selected scheme.
(b) Approach
The Devil Canyon diversion scheme will depend to a large extent on the
type and size of dam selected for the ultimate development and for any
intermediate stages of construction. The scheme will also be greatly
influenced by the pattern of releases from the upstream Watana
development which will probably already be in place.
For a concrete dam of the size currently proposed at Devil Canyon, the
diversion scheme will probably comprise some combination of upstream
and downstream cofferdams and an appropriate arrangement of tunnels,
intakes and outlet structures to divert the flow. Consideration will
also be given to alternatives involving diversion of river flow
directly through or over partially completed dam structural elements
during at least a portion of the construction period. For possible
rockfill dam alternatives considered under Subtask 6.08, somewhat
different design concepts will be involved.
Activities undertaken in this subtask will include:
-Selection of diversion design flood based on Watana releases and
development of other design criteria;
-Study of alternative cofferdam design concepts, heights and place-
ment methods
Study of alternative tunnel alignments, sizes, methods of construc-
tion and lining requirements
-Diversion flood routing studies
-Review of requirements for flow control and conceptual design of
intake and outlet structures
-Consideration of icing problems upstream and downstream of the dam-
site area
-Review of foundation cut-off and treatment requirements
-Consideration of requirements for dewatering of dam foundations
-Evaluation of methods of tunnel closure for reservoir impoundment
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A5-171
-Conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates for the selected
diversion scheme
-Consideration of concrete dam construction methods and risks
involved in diversion of river flow through partially completed
elements.
(c) Discussion
The selected scheme provide safe arrangements for dam construction at
minimum cost. Consideration will be given to utilization of permanent
project features such as tunnels, power and tailrace as diversion
facilities.
Construction planning and design of diversion facilities will take due
account of these factors.
During spring and early summer, discharges from Watana spillway could
impose severe limitations and design constraints for the development
of the diversion plan for the Devil Canyon site.
Input to this subtask will include the proposed dam construction
schedule, appropriate flood flow criteria, geotechnical exploration
data and the type and location of the main dam and associated
features. If appropriate, diversion studies will determine the height
of the upstream and downstream cofferdams with associated sizes of the
diversion tunnel selected for the scheme. These studies will also
determine a reasonably economical combination of size of the diversion
tunnel and the cofferdam height. Tailwater rating curves for these
studies will be based on Task 3 output. The flood hydrograph data
will be reviewed for its application and appropriately modified in
accordance with the risks associated with such a high dam.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $63,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 85 to 95
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Subtask 6.23 -Optimize Watana Power Development
(a) Objective
A5-172
Study alternative Watana power plant locations, types and sizes, and
associated intake, power conduit and outlet facilities within the
context of selected dam and spillway arrangements, and select the
optimum power development concept.
(b) Approach
The three major components of project cost at Watana are the dam, the
spillway and the power development facilities. To this point in Task
6 studies, work will have concentrated on establishing the require-
ments for feasible optimum dam and spillway design concepts. These
studies will generally have been developed on the basis of engineering
judgement and experience and previous report data. This will not
detract from the overall objective of this POS in that the further
improvements and economies which may be made in the design of the
power facilities are not likely to significantly affect the overall
technical and economic feasibility of the project.
The location, type and size of the power plant associated with the
selected dam and spillway structures will be considered in more
detail. The installed capacity and annual generation data developed
under Subtask 6.03 will be re-examined in the light of updated total
project cost and any additional hydrological data which may have been
developed. Additional available geotechnical data will also be a
factor in consideration of alternative power plant locations and
re-evaluation of power development costs.
Factors to be considered include:
-Confirmation of tailwater rating curves and hydraulic head computa-
tions
-Determination of optimum plant capacity and energy outputs as part
of the Railbelt Region power system
-Surface and underground, 1 eft or right abutment, powerhouse
1 ocations
-Number, size and lining requirements for penstocks, tailrace tunnels
and surge tank
-Number, type, size and setting of units
-Location and number of transformers
-Switchyard and cabling requirements
Selection of the optimum power development will be on the basis of
technical feasibility and safety at minimum cost.
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(c) Discussion
The optimum scheduling of hydroelectric installions developed under
Task 1 will be reviewed as input to this Subtask.
For the head and size of unit contemplated at Watana, vertical Francis
units directly connected to synchronous generators are the most 1 i kely
installation. Depending on the desired staging of development, modern
trends generally suggest that fewer, larger units are most likely to
provide maximum opportunities for economy of scale. Discussions will
be held with manufacturers in determining the probable optimum size of
unit. No problems are anticipated in selecting units at the size and
head envisaged. A summary of recent large Francis unit designs is
presented in Table A5.5.
The 1979 Corps of Engineers design for Watana indicates an underground
power plant location. The scheduling advantages of such an installa-
tion are considerable in that year-round construction is facilitated.
Nevertheless, surface alternatives may offer some advantages particu-
larly in some of the possible limitations imposed by spillway location
priorities.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $85,000
Schedule
Weeks 90 through 110
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AS-174
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TABLE AS.5
] TYPICAL LARGE FRANCIS UNITS
] No. of Unit Year in
Plant Location Units Output Head Operation
J Churchi 11 Falls Canada 11 480 MW 1025 ft 1972
Grand Caul ee I II Wash., USA 6 3 -600 MW 285 ft 1977
J 3 -700 MW
Guri Venezula 10 650 MW 380 ft uc
] Itaipu Brazi 1 18 780 MW 388 ft uc
Ludington* USA 6 343 MW 361 ft 1973
] Bath County* USA 6 357 MW 1079 ft uc
J Mica Canada 4 625 MW 600 ft 1977
Cobora Bass a Mozambique 5 484 MW 372 ft 1977
] Paul d Alfonso Brazil 5 425 MW 369 ft uc
J * Francis Reversible Pump-Turbines
UC -Under Construction
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Subtask 6.24 -Optimize Devil Canyon Power Development
(a) Objective
A5-175
Study alternative Devil Canyon power plant locations, types and sizes,
and associated intake, power conduit and outlet facilities, within the
context of selected dam and spillway arrangements, and select the
optimum power development concept.
{b) Approach
As in the case of the Watana site (Subtask 6.23), Task 6 studies will
initially have been concentrated on establishing the requirements for
feasible optimum dam and spillway design concepts at Devil Canyon.
The location, type and size of the power plant associated with the
selected dam and spillway structures will be considered in more
detail. However, space restrictions in the narrow Devil Canyon will
impose constraints on available powerhouse locations. The installed
capacity and annual generation data developed under Subtask 6.03 will
be re-examined in the light of updated total project cost and any
additional hydrological data which may have been developed. Addi-
tional available geotechnical data will also be a factor in considera-
tion of alternative power plant locations and re-evaluation of power
development costs.
Factors to be considered include:
-Impact of time release patterns from Watana
-Confirmation of tailwater rating curves and hydraulic head
computations
-Determination of optimum plant capacity and energy outputs as part
the Railbelt Region power system
-Surface and underground, left or right abutment, or integral dam
powerhouse locations
-Number, size and lining requirements for penstocks, tailrace tunnels
and surge tank (if required)
-Number, type, size and setting of units
-Location and number of transformers
-Switchyard and cabling requirements
Selection of the optimum power development will be on the basis of
technical feasibility and safety at minimum cost.
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(c) Discussion
The optimum Devil Canyon power development will be significantly
influenced by Watana plant operations.
As at Watana, for the head and size of unit contemplated at Devil
Canyon, vertical Francis units directly connected to synchronous
generations are the most likely installation. Discussions will again
be held with manufacturers in determining the probable optimum size of
unit.
The 1979 Corps of Engineers design for Devil Canyon also indicates an
underground power plant location. The scheduling advantages of such
an installation are considerable in that year-round construction is
facilitated. Nevertheless, surface alternatives may offer some cost
advantages, particularly if a power plant constructed integrally with
the dam proves to be feasible.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••• $83,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 90 through 110
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Subtask 6.25 -Optimize Dam Heights
(a) Objective
A5-177
Consider alternative heights of selected Devil Canyon and Watana dam
structures and associated development design concepts and select the
optimum.
{b) Approach
At this point in the study the opportunity will be taken to reassess
the costs and benefits of each development to confi·rm or modify the
design concepts previously adopted. The Subtask will essentially be
undertaken on the basis of the results of previous Task 6 studies of
the dams, spillways and power developments. The following activities
will be included:
-develop preliminary conceptual designs for alternative dam heights
with associated spillway and power development modifications
-re-evaluate development construction costs, power and energy outputs
and system economics incorporating the modified development
-select the optimum development concept
-if necessary, make appropriate modifications to conceptual designs
and cost .estimates of dams and spillways
(c) Discussion
This will essentially be the final step in the determination of pro-
ject feasibility and in selection of the optimum development at each
site in terms of maximized net benefits. In selecting the optimum
development due consideration of relevant environmental issues will be
taken into account.
{d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••• $27,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 105 to 115
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Subtask 6.26 -Preliminary Desi g_n Watana Power Development
(a) Objective
AS-178
Develop preliminary conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates
for Watana power plant, intake, power conduits and outlet works.
(b) Approach
Preliminary designs, drawings and cost estimates will be prepared for
the selected optimum power development facilities at Watana
including:
-General arrangement
-Powerhouse arrangement
-Valve chambers
-Powerhouse crane
-Access and control room facilities
-Transformer area
-Draft tubes and gates
-Bus ducts and cable shafts
-Intakes and gates
-Penstocks and surge tank (if required)
-Tailrace and outlet structure
-Switchyard and transmission arrangements
The work will also include the following activities:
-Establish the turbine head and capacity rating and mechanical
equipment required
-Establish the generator rating and other electrical equipment
requirements
-Arrangement of mechanical and electrical equipment in the powerhouse
layout for the most efficient use of space
-Preparation of electrical single-line diagram
-Preliminary analyses of transient pressures in the power conduit
-Preliminary penstock steel/concrete lining designs
(c) Discussion
Studies will be made of the geotechnical aspects of the underground
structures such as the powerhouse, tunnels and penstocks, with
appropriate input from exploratory work. The assessment of geotechni-
cal problems and the design analysis will be sufficient in depth to
establish technical feasibility and to determine realistic capital
cost and schedule requirements. The essential objective of these
studies will be to locate a structurally sound block of rock within
which the major openings may be sited with confidence •
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AS-179
As an extension of the field program, the assessment will include rock
quality studies identifying and evaluating significant geological
features such as faults, foliation, shear zones, principal joint
systems, groundwater and seepage regimes. During this process, basic
design parameters such as shear strength and rock modulus will be
evaluated. Based on assessment and evaluation of the studies, the
basic design criteria for rock excavation, rock reinforcement, rock
support 1 ining requirements and pressure relief systems for major
openings to ensure rock mass stability will be confirmed.
The size of major openings such as the underground powerhouse will be
largely dictated by mechanical and electrical equipment, hydraulic
requirements, and orientation and shape of the openings. The design
optimization of the geometry will depend on the strength characteris-
tics of the mass rock relative to the stresses that may be imposed.
Finite element stress analysis may be necessary during later project
design phases after submission of the license application to check the
stability of the openings.
Ice jamming conditions and other severe weather construction and post-
construction conditions will be examined to provide a facility which
is fully integrated with the hydraulic system of the conduits and
power plant, and can serve under all weather conditions.
Preliminary concepts will be developed for structural details, and
concrete pour and jointing details, and consideration of construction
methods. To cope with water quality and environmental problems due to
reservoir stratification, the intake structure should be capable of
drawing water from several different levels. The conceptual design
of an intake structure with various levels of withdrawal, power inlet
transitions, emergency gates, and trashrack details will be under-
taken. Information obtained from manufacturers for specific mechani-
cal and electrical equipment items with associated costs and charac-
teristics will be used in the conceptual layout drawings and also for
the cost estimats.
Preliminary conceptual designs of gates, bridges, energy dissipating
structures, tunnels and all other hydraulic structures will be made to
provide reliable cost data.
(d) Level of Efort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $95,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 95 to 115
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AS-180
Subtask 6.27 -Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Power Development
(a) Objective
Develop preliminary conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates
for Devil Canyon power plant, intake, power conduits and outlet ·
works.
(b) Approach
As for the Watana Power Development, work under this Subtask will
include preliminary designs, drawings and cost estimates for the
selected optimum power development facilities at Devil Canyon. These
will include:
-General arrangement
-Powerhouse arrangement
-Valve chambers
-Powerhouse crane
-Access and control room facilities
-Powerhouse crane
-Transformer area
-Draft tubes and gates
-Bus ducts and cable shafts
-Intakes and gates
-Penstocks and surge tank (if required)
-Tailrace and outlet structure
-Switchyard and transmission arrangements
The work will also include the following activities:
-Establish the turbine head and capacity rating and mechanical
equipment required
-Establish the generator rating and other electrical equipment
requirements
Arrangement of mechanical and electrical equipment in the powerhouse
layout for the most efficient use of space
-Preparation of electrical single-line diagram
-Preliminary analyses of transient pressures in the power conduit
-Preliminary penstock steel/concrete lining designs
(c) Discussion
As for Watana, the geotechnical aspects of the design of underground
structures such as the powerhouse, tunnels and penstocks will be
carefully assessed with due consideration of the results of explora-
tory work. The assessment of geotechnical problems and the design
analysis will be sufficient in depth to establish technical feasibil-
ity and to determine realistic capital cost and schedule requirements.
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The assessment will include identification of design parameters such
as shear strength and rock modulus and evaluation of significant
geologic features such as faults, foliation, shear zones, principal
joint systems, groundwater and seepage regimes. The basic design
criteria for rock excavation, rock reinforcement, rock support lining
requirements and pressure relief systems for major openings to ensure
rock mass stability will be confirmed.
The size of major openings such as the underground powerhouse will be
largely dictated by mechanical and electrical equipment, hydraulic
requirements, and orientation and shape of the openings. Finite
element stress analysis may be necessary during later project design
phases after submission of the 1 icense application to check the
stability of the openings.
Evaluation of the impact of conjunctive operation of Devil Canyon and
Watana will be undertaken, including the effects of ice jamming and
other severe weather construction and post-construction conditions.
To cope with water quality and environmental problems due to reservoir
stratification, the intake structure should be capable of drawing
water from several different levels. The conceptual design of an
intake structure with various levels of withdrawal, power inlet trans-
itions, emergency gates, and trashrack details will be undertaken.
Information obtained from manufacturers for specific mechanical and
electrical equipment items with associated costs and characteristics
will be used in the conceptual layout drawings and also for the cost
estimats.
Preliminary conceptual designs of gates, bridges, energy dissipating
structures, tunnels and all other hydraulic structures will be made to
provide reliable cost data.
(d) Level of Efort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $93,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 95 to 115
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Subtask 6.28 -Power Development Report
(a) Objective
AS-182
Prepare a report presenting the results of studies of optimization of
power development alternatives for the Watana and Devil Canyon Sites
and the selection and development of preliminary conceptual designs in
each case.
(b) Approach
The power development report will be assembled to document the results
of Subtasks 6.06 and 6.23 through 6.27. The report will deal with
consideration of alternatives and preparation of preliminary designs
for the Watana and Devil Canyon power developments, including intakes,
penstocks, surge tanks, power plants, tailrace, switchyard and trans-
mission facilities for each site. Primary input to the report will be
provided by memoranda prepared during the course of those studies to
summarize the work undertaken, together with appropriate drawings,
cost estimates and schedules.
Specific topics to be addressed in the report will include:
-staged power development considerations
-selection of generating capacity of installations
-geotechnical design considerations
-hydraulic design parameters
-conceptual design of power developments
-single-line diagrams
-cost estimates and schedules
-mechanical equipment selection
-electrical equipment selection
-accessory electrical equipment
-miscellaneous power plant equipment
(c) Discussion
The technical and economic issues involved in the selected designs
will be discussed together with recommendations for further studies to
be undertaken prior to construction. At least one of the power plants
will incorporate an underground cavern installation. The selection of
location and geologic considerations for the underground facilities
will be fully discussed. Recommendations will also be presented for
equipment and construction contract packaging alternatives to be
considered.
The report will provide basic input to final design of power develop-
ment structures, including structural and hydraulic analyses, geotech-
nical conditions and hydraulic design of the intake, penstock and
tailrace facilities. The report will also address other problems
needing further investigation for the detailed design such as geotech-
nical design, ice jamming conditions and constraints, seismic loading,
possible requirements for heating and other construction problems in
extreme climatic conditions.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• $19,600
EXternal Review Panel •••••••••••••••••• $10,000
Total Subtask 6.19 ••••••••••••••••••••• $29,600
(e) Schedule
Weeks 110 through 120
AS-183
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AS-184
Subtask 6.29 -Watana General Arrangement
(a) Objective
Prepare general arrangement drawings for the Watana development for
inclusion in the FERC license application.
(b) Approach
In this subtask the complete general arrangement of the Watana dam
project will be developed. These arrangements will be based on pre-
liminary designs prepared under preceding Task 6 activities for the
major project components, including:
-reservoir area
-dam and access facilities
-spillway control structure and access facilities
-spillway discharge facilities
-intake structure and access facilities
-power plant and access facilities
-penstocks and surge tank (if required)
-tailrace arrangement
-switchyard and transmission facilities
-site access and camp facilities
The arrangement will be prepared in the form of reservoir and damsite
area layout drawings appropriate for inclusion in the FERC 1 icense
application •
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• $60,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 110 to 120
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Subtask 6.30 -Devil Canyon General Arrangement
(a) Objective
AS-185
Prepare general arrangement drawings for the Devil Canyon development
for inclusion in the FERC license application.
(b) Approach
In this subtask the complete general arrangement of the Devil Canyon
project will be developed. These arrangements will be based on
preliminary designs prepared under preceding Task 6 activities for the
major project components, including:
-reservoir area
-dam and access facilities
-spillway control structure and access facilities
-spillway discharge facilities
-intake structure and access facilities
-power plant and access facilities
-penstocks and surge tank (if required)
-tailrace arrangement
-switchyard and transmission facilities
-site access and camp facilities
The arrangement will be prepared in the form of reservoir and damsite
area layout drawings appropriate for inclusion in the FERC license
application.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• $58,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 110 to 120
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A5-186
Subtask 6.31 -Project Feasibility Report
(a) Objective
Prepare report documenting the procedures followed in the evaluation
of feasibility of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project, including the
results of technical and economic studies, conceptual designs,
preliminary environmental assessments and recommendations for the
future development of the project.
(b) Approach
This report will assemble the results· and documentation from all
work undertaken in Task 6 and pertinent aspects of all other tasks.
Previous reports prepared under Task 6 will be condensed into a
single document, including:
-Subtask 6.05 -Development Selection Report
-Subtask 6.13 -Dam Selection Report
-Subtask 6.19 -Spillway Selection Report
-Subtask 6.28 -Power Development Report
The feasibility report will form the basis of the FERC license
application and provide Alaska Power Authority with all technical
and economic information necessary to decide whether or not, and how
to proceed with the project.
Specific topics to be dealt with in the report will include, for
each of the Watana and Devil Canyon sites:
-Description of project
-Basic project data
-Design criteria
-Project staged development concepts
-Dam alternatives
-Consideration of Devil Canyon arch dam design
-River diversion schemes
-Spillway alternatives
-Power development alternatives
-Conceptual project designs and drawings
-Cost estimates and schedules
-Transmission
-Construction contract packaging
-Environmental considerations
-Power marketing studies
-Project feasibility assessments
-Recommendations for project development
(c) Discussion
The feasibility report will be submitted for comment by the external
review panel and the Alaska Power Authority prior to completion and
issue to the public. The report will form the basis of continued
development and financing of the Susitna Project to meet the future
power needs of the Railbelt Region.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ...................
Review Panel •••••••••••••••••••••••••
Total Subtask 6.31 ...................
(e) Schedule
Weeks 115 through 125
$45,000
20,000
$65,000
A5-187
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TASKS 3 -8 9 INPUT
TASK 2
INPUT T
---c REVIEW ~ EVALUATE WATANA /DEVIL
PREVIOUS ALTERNATIVE CAN YON STAGED
STUDIES ./~ SUSITNA t--DEVELOPMENT
6.011 z5 l4o DEVELOPMENTS ALTERNATIVES
6.o3 1 4o 60 6.061 5o 1 75
INVESTIGATE ~ PRELIMINARY
TUNNEL "'\\ WATANA DAM
ALTERNATIVES ,.I( L-., ALTERNATIVES
6.02 l3o I 5o "' .....
6.o71 5o I 75 ,.1 ,)
@) T
DEVIL CANYON PRELIMINARY
ARCH DAM "' DEVIL CANYON
EVALUATION DAM
6.041 45 6S ALTERNATIVES
5.o816o 1 75
I -ESTABLISH
TASK.> 2,4 '"'\ WATANA
8 5 :NPUT ,./ DESIGN -CRITERIA
6.09 ao 9S
LEGEND ---
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...... 1--SUBTASK
TITLE
I
COMPLETION WEEK
START WEEK
'-----SUBTASK NO.
" ,./
L--.--
I
ESTABLISH
DEVIL CANYON
DESIGN
CRITERIA
6.10 1 ao 1 9s
I
DEVELOPMENT
SELECTION
REPORT
6.os I so Iss
INPUT TO
TASKS7,889 -
CE0 -PUT
TASK2
INPUT
1: WATANA WATANA
SPILLWAY DIVERSION
ALTERNATIVES 1--;.; SCHEMES
6.15 1 8o 95 521T 85 T 95
OPTIMIZE
WATANA
~\. ..... ) POWER
DEVELOPMENT f.---,.1
5z3T9oT 110
SPILLWAY
4-DESIGN
CRITERIA
6.14 I 70 I ao
ACCESS
r-~ SCAMP
~ FACILITIES
6.20I7o lao
DEVIL CANYON
'""
DEVIL CANYON
""..'"'\ SPILLWAY DIVERSION '"'\\
""'"'"'" ~ SCHEMES '!
t'&i6la5 95 6.22 I as l9s r
l ,/
PRELIM I NARY
DESIGN ..... "' WATANA DAM f---7-)
r Q. 6.11 las 110
PRELIMINARY
'\ "' DESIGN
WATANA ,/ SPILLWAY
6.17 l9s I us
PRELIMINARY
DESIGN
"' DEVIL CANYON
DAM -7 r 6.12 las 110
,( PRELIMINARY
DESIGN DEVIL
CANYON ~"~' n~ 6.1a I 9S Ius
"'\
(
DAM SPILLWAY
SELECTION SELECTION
REPORT REPORT
6.13 (100 Ius 6.19 1110 120
OPTIMIZE
DEVIL CANYON
POWER ~ DEVELOPMENT
6.24 I 9o 1110
OPTIMIZE
DAM .....
HEIGHTS ,./
6.2SIIOS IllS
"' ,/
PRELIMINARY
DESIGN "\ WATANA POWER
DEVELOPEMENT ,/
6.261 95 (liS
" 7 (
PRELIMINARY
DESIGN DEVIL
CANYON POWER
l DEVELOPEMENT
6.27 9S Jus
+
POWER
~ DEVELOPMENT
REPORT
6.2B I no 1120
INPUT TO
TASKS 7,8,9,11 -
WATANA
GENERAL ..... t.RRANGEMENT ,.1
6.29 11101120
DEVIL CANYON
GENERAL
ARRANGEMENT
6.30 110 J120
+
PROJECT
FEASIBILITY
REPORT
631 liS I12S
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SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE T6. I: TASK 6 SCHEDULE
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.,."" -------.... / r------
40'-o" DIA. // I ADIT ------
POWER CONDUIT'-,. / .(TUNNEL . l -----
INVERT EL.I770.0 y/ No.4 A ADIT ---........ / TUNNEL . 1 ---
/ No.3 \ ---.,.,.., \ -----------
/ Rl VER \ ADIT -----1 ~ \TUNNEL ........_,
/"AD IT ~~ ~No. 2 ' I TUNNEL \ AOIT
I No.5 TADIT ,.A T:t,.~~EL
I (TUNNEL · / \
No.5 .f' \
I \ \ I' \ / /).------.I.-----...._ fi'1 ~SURGE TANK
1 40'-o" DIA. /' Jj \ I // POWER CONDUIT ', ~· \
I ADIT // "\ if \ POWERHOUSE
I WATANA DAM TUNNEL "\ \ ~ ./ 4-350 MW UIITS
I / No.6 / "\ ~ , ,.....'y "\ ~--, DIVERSION DAM
/ ' ,,
/ "\,~~ I / "<; TUNNEL \. ~II'. EL 88'0 .-"""'"'...-
INTAKE
!~~~c.I:~.~~o-----._
C~~t~-' // \\No. 4 ADIT ADIT .
!<!:/ TUNNEL l TUNNEL"" ,s·'~")/ / \ No.2 \ No.I ~
.v / \ ( ' ------f
I r-' 1 ./ ----\ ~. ----~---SURGE TANK { .--L--------, ---\ ..... •. \ : _ __.--------------L 1,--cs~ ____ .__.--EL.2386.o
__ ;1----40'-o";;;.--_;;r-----l-----------'-: ------
POWER CONDUIT ---""--'\" ADIT
INVERT EL. 1883.0 ~ TUNNEL · No.3
PLAN
0
MILES
!;; -J;INT~fTURE
~ ::J= ~""""'"===-::::::=:~=::::::::::.;:~~==~:::::==::=::~:::::::~;;::::::======:::;;:::=::::.::::::====~===:==~ ~~ -L TAKE CHANNEL 4o'-O" DIA. DISTRIBUTOR ~L'~·--"----'.&...r~
INVERT EL.1890.0 CONCRETE LINED
POWER TUNNEL
PROFILE ALONG CENTERLINE OF POWER TUNNEL
o I 2 z:::::=:::: I
MILES
UNDERGROUND
POWERHOUSE
M4X. RESERVOIR EL.2200.0' BUS SHAFT
EL.I890.0'
INTAKE
CHANNEL
INTAKE SECTION
0 100 200
FEET
Q• 16300 CFS
G erV·:~:7FT/S
.r.O o''
OR tl'P.
POWER TUNNEL SECTION
Q • 75 CF5
Q • 16300CFS
V =20FT/$
INCLINED
PENSTOCK
SECTION
Q • 8150 CFS
V • 25 FT/S
HORIZONTAL
PENSTOCK
SECTION
; •.
V • 27,72 FT/S ? '-r-~~-' 0•4150 CFS -~L_t:tl V•7 FT/5 ·-.-~""" "<!.L_w ~:~ FT/5-
POWERHOUSE COMPLEX SECTION
13~ ,.J.._l_J_ 13'-1"
~-
DRAFT TUBE
SECTION
0 40 80
FEET
TRANSFORMER
GALLERY
SURGE SHAFT
PLAN
STEEL LINED
PENSTOCK
SECTION
TAILRACE
SECTION SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
0 40 80
FEET PLATET:G.2:ALTERNATIVE TUNNEL SCHEMES
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A5-188
A.5.8 -TASK 7: ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
(i) Task Objectives
The environmental program is designed to evaluate primarily the
Susitna Hydroelectric Project and associated facilities, with
respect to environmental impacts. To accomplish this, a
comprehensive program of studies has been developed in the following
disciplines: socioeconomics, archaeological and historical
resources, geology, land use and recreation, water resources,
fish ecology, wildlife ecology and plant ecology. Access roads,
site facilities and transmission corridors will also be studied for
environmental compatibility.
The overall objective of the environmental studies is to describe
the existing environmental conditions, evaluate alternatives in
light of the existing conditions and, for the selected alternatives,
predict future conditions with and without the proposed project so
that changes (impacts) caused by the project may be assessed. To
accomplish this overall objective, the following activities will be
completed by the environmental study team:
(a) Assist the design team in selecting the best alternatives for
power generation, access road and site facility locations and
power transmission corridor based on the environmental impact
of the proposed facility.
(b) Prepare the exhibits required to support the FERC license
application.
(c) Prepare amendments to the Corps of Engineers• approved EIS for
the Susitna Project responding to and eliminating areas of
concern or shortcoming in the EIS.
(d) Respond to intervenors• petitions, inquiries from local, state
and Federal agencies, and public participants at the request of
APA.
(e) Assist APA in obtaining Water Quality Certification.
(f) Respond to other environmental needs of APA or the project
engineerng team as they occur throughout the study.
(g) Supervise and coordinate both the field and office activities
of all the environmental consultants including liaison with
ADF&G as authorized by APA.
{h) Monitor all field activities for environmental acceptability.
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A5"!'189
During preparation of the FERC license application, intensive
baseline and impact-related investigations will be performed with
the work progressing from general to specific in a timely manner as
the project definition is developed. Because of the magnitude of
the proposed action, the life cycle of some of the resources to be
studied and the time required to evaluate alternatives and develop
design specifications, environmental studies will be required beyond
the time of license application. Thus, one objective of the early
studies is to initiate baseline studies and to develop detailed
plans of study for the further environmental impact analysis that
will be completed after the license application submission, but
prior to a final FERC decision on the license application.
This approach will aliow for a refinement of the environmental
program at approximately the midpoint of its duration. It will also
minimize unproductive expenditures in the event that the project is
determined to be infeasible or a new scheme is proposed as the
primary alternative. For the purposes of the environmental plan of
study, a two-dam scheme (Watana and Devil Canyon) in the Upper
Susitna Basin was assumed to be the best alternative, and studies
will commence accordingly. If a different scheme is selected as the
primary alternative, the program will need to be restructured and
costs and schedule adjusted accordingly.
(ii) Task Output
The Alaska Power Authority will be provided with quarterly progress
reports describing in summary the activities, results, and
conclusions of the studies in progress or to be performed. Annual
reports describing in detail the results and conclusions will be
prepared. The annual reports will be used to prepare the
environmental exhibit (Exhibit E) for the FERC license application.
The pre-license application program is based upon an understanding
that the forthcoming revision of FERC requirements (for Exhibit E)
will demand less intensive environmental analysis at the license
application stage than do the existing requirements for Exhibits W,
R, S, and V.
Subsequent study outputs will include written testimony and
responses to interrogatories. Oral testimony at public hearings
will be provided as required. The results of the studies completed
after license application submission, including refinement of the
impact analysis, are anticipated to be presented in two annual
supplementary environmental reports for submission to FERC.
At the request of the APA, environmental documents necessary to
obtain approval of an amended EIS, Water Quality Certifications or
other required permits will be prepared.
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(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 7.01 -Coordination of Environmental Studies
Subtask 7.02 -Monitoring of Field Activities for Environmental
Acceptability
Subtask 7.03 -Evaluation of Alternatives
Subtask 7.04-Water Resources (Quality) Analysis
Subtask 7.05-Socioeconomic Analysis
Subtask 7.06 -Cultural Resource Investigation
Subtask 7.07 -Land Use Analysis
Subtask 7.08 -Analysis of Recreational Development
Subtask 7.09 -Susitna Transmission Corridor Assessment
Subtask 7.10 -Fish Ecology Baseline Studies and Analysis
Subtask 7.11 -Wildlife Ecology Baseline Studies and Analysis
Subtask 7.12-Plant Ecology Baseline Studies and Analysis
Subtask 7.13 -Geological Analysis
Subtask 7.14 ~ Access Road Environmental Analysis
Subtask 7.15-Preparation of FERC License Application Exhibit
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
AS-190
The primary objective of Task 7 is described in Section A.5.8(i).
The subtasks required to adequately respond to this objective are
divided into activities undertaken prior to submission of the FERC
license application, Subtasks 7.1 through 7.15, and those activities
on which continuing work is to be performed after submission of the
FERC license application, as described in Section A7.
Subtasks 7.1 through 7.14 may be further subdivided into:
(a) Management and monitoring functions that continue throughout
the project, Subtasks 7.1 and 7.2.
(b) Those activities initiated and completed prior to license
application submission, Subtasks 7.3, 7.4, 7.13 and 7.14.
(c) Those activities for which baseline studies are completed and
substantial impact analyses are initiated during the
preparation of the license application, Subtasks 7.5 through
7.9. These subtasks are then completed after the license
application is submitted to FERC; however, the work effort is
less intense than during the pre-license application period.
(d) The ecological studies that require extensive, long-term field
programs, and that are plnnned and initiated during the early
stages of the project, Subtasks 7.10 to 7.12. During this
early time period, the primary effort is directed toward data
collection and compilation with little detailed analysis being
undertaken. The data collection is continued after the license
application is submitted until the four or five years of data
required to form an adequate base is accumulated. An intensive
data analysis and impact assessment is then completed. It
should be noted that sufficient data analysis will take place
during the early time period to guide and follow-up baseline
studies and insure that no gaps exist in the data base being
compiled.
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AS-191
If any deficiencies in an original program plan are detected,
the analysis performed during the early time period will be
used to modify the plan and redirect the emphasis of the field
studies as required.
Subtask 7.15 is the culmination of the early activities, i.e.,
preparation of Exhibit E of the license application.
The following discussions are summaries of the work to be completed
during each of the environmental subtasks. More detailed
descriptions of the rationale and study design for the more complex
environmental studies (Subtasks 7.05, 7.06, 7.07, 7.08, 7.10, 7.11
and 7.12) are presented in Section C7-Environmental Appendix.
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AS-192
Subtask 7.01 -Coordination of Environmental Studies
(a) Objective
The objectives of this subtask are:
(1) to ensure that all environmental Plans of Study are executed in
a coordinated, controlled manner in accordance both with the
scopes of work and compliance schedules;
(2) to coordinate the implementation of all discipline-specific
environmental Plans of Study;
(3) to maximize study effort and efficiency through organized inter-
discipline coordination in accordance with the subtask
responsibility statements;
(4) to ensure that all project efforts are non-duplicative and
cost-effective; and
(5) to provide the Alaska Power Authority and third-party interests
with a framework for communication on all environmental
matters.
(b) Approach
Dr. John W. Hayden, Environmental Division Manager of Acres, and Mr.
Jeffery 0. Barnes, President of Terrestrial Environmental Specialists
will provide management for all environmental studies conducted for
the Susitna Project. Mr. Barnes will be responsible for obtaining
the services of qualified subcontractors to perform the discipline-
specific tasks necessary for the licensing of the project. As the
prime contractor, Acres is solely responsible to APA for the cost,
schedule and quality of all work; thus, subcontract agreement between
TES and their subcontractor shall be submitted to Acres• Project
Manager for final review and approval. TES will provide the day to
day technical guidance of and coordination among their subcontractors
to insure their compliance with both time schedules and cost
estimates and to assure technical satisfaction of licensing
requirements.
A preliminary environmental studies schedule appears in this Plan of
Study. A detailed schedule of all environmental activities will be
developed as soon as the relationship between environmental studies
to be undertaken by ADF&G, TES and other groups or agencies yet
unidentified are known. The final schedule will also be coordinated
with the engineering studies to ensure timely input from Tasks 1, 2,
3, 5, 8 and 12. The environmental studies schedule will identify the
tasks to be accomplished, the length of time allocated for subtask
accomplishment and project milestones. The finalized schedule will
be submitted through Acres• Project Manager to APA for review,
comment and approval.
Quality control procedures previously utilized by Acres and TES will
be implemented to insure the uniformity and accuracy of both the
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A5-193
technical and environmental data collected in support of the environ-
mental programs. These procedures will be established and put into
effect at the outset of the study and wi 11 be rigorously fo 11 ov1ed
throughout the course of study.
The division of responsibilities for the accomplishment of
subtask objectives will also be clearly defined at project
initiation. Technical, inter-and intra-discipline meetings will be
held on a regular basis throughout the study effort to facilitate
understanding of subtask duties. Meetings for the purpose of keeping
engineering personnel, the APA, and third party interest groups
abreast of environmental study activities and findings will also be
held on a regularly scheduled basis.
(c) Discussion
Management and administration of the environmental studies shown on
Plate A5 will be accomplished through the formulation of a
three-tiered management pyramid with the third (or lowest level)
being the working level. At the top will be the Environmental Study
Managers (ESM) consisting of Dr. Hayden and Mr. Barnes. Next in
command will be the Environmental Study Directors (EPD) consisting of
the Principal Director, Dr. Vincent J. Lucid, Director of
Environmental Studies forTES and the Deputy Director, Ms. Cathie
Baumgartner, Vice President of TES. Beneath them appear the team
leaders for areas of activities involving more than two disciplines
and/or the Principal Investigators.
Administration of environmental studies will be handled by the
Environmental Study Managers. They will be responsible for insuring
the successful completion and applicability of that portion of the
FERC application pertaining to environmental matters. In conducting
their duties and responsibilities, they will:
(1) insure the fulfillment of contract requirements;
(2) insure coordination with all technical aspects of the overall
study;
(3) conduct liaison with regulatory agencies and interested third
parties;
(4) recommend approval/disapproval on all project cost and/or work
scope changes to Acres Project Manager;
(5) keep the following personnel and agencies informed of pertinent
decision and/or environmental activities:
-Project Manager, Acres
-Appropriate Engineering Group Leaders
-Local, state and federal agencies, as designated by Acres
Project Managers, (including APA, ADF&G, USFWS, BLM and ADNR,
Corps and others).
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(6) provide monthly progress reports to Acres• Project Manager;
(7) approve minor Project Work Scope adjustments with our
information copy to Acres• Project Manager; and
(8) review, approve and recommend, release and distribution of
reports to Acres• Project Manager.
A5-194
The Environmental Study Managers will provide direction for the
timely initiation of the environmental studies and other project
activities on an as-needed rather than a day-to-day basis for maximum
.study schedule and cost efficiency.
Administration of all day-to-day project activities will be the
responsibility of the Environmental Study Directors. Their
responsibilities will include, but not be limited to:
(1) developing comprehensive quality control procedures applicable
in all phases of the environmental effort;
(2) approving the initiation of all environmental sampling efforts;
(3) providing problem resolution on an as-needed basis;
(4) supervising expenditures and cost-accounting procedures and
audit invoices;
(5) providing design recommendations to the Acres• Project Manager,
and
(6) reviewing and approving all reports for internal action and
transmit final copies to the ESM for appropriate disposition.
The management and administration of all technical programs will be
the responsibility of the Environmental Study Directors. However,
they may delegate this authority and responsibility to Group Leaders
when appropriate. The level of responsibilities include:
(1) insure completeness and effectiveness of discipline-specific
studies in meeting study objectives;
(2) provide direction of and assistance with the initiation of all
field sampling efforts;
(3) maintain active supervision of project staff efforts on a
day-to-day basis;
(4) recommend approval/disapproval of adjustments to
discipline-specific studies;
(5) maintain a detailed status report of all discipline-specific
studies to insure conformance with program objectives;
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AS-195
(6) approve minor program/sampling procedure adjustments to make the
program more compatible with existing conditions;
(7) inform the ESD of program activities on a regularly scheduled
basis;
(8) provide design recommendations to ESD.
Principal Investigators (PI} will share some of the duties previously
identified as Group Leader responsibilities, especially with respect
to the conduct of the field sampling efforts. In addition, each PI
will, as a minimum:
(1) recommend modifications to cost and/or discipline-specific study
efforts based upon sampling results; and
(2) provide monthly progress and activity status reports either to
the Group Leader or the ESD.
Project assignments and an organizational chart for the environmental
study team are presented in later sections of this Plan of Study.
The proposed environmental Plan of Study is designed to meet the
needs of the Susitna Project license application to FERC and to
complete the existing Corps of Engineers EIS for the project.
However, flexibility and judgement affecting study details should be
reserved for the purpose of matching study efforts to an ever-
changing public demand for environmental quality protection and to
changing regulatory requirements and attitudes.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) ••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and review (Acres) ••••••••••
$266,000
49,500
Total Subtask 7.01 •••••••••••••••••• $315,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 -130
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Subtask 7.02 -Monitoring of Field Activities for
Environmental Acceptability
(a) Objective
AS-196
The objective of this subtask is to keep the environmental impact of
surface disturbing and all other field activities to a minimum.
(b) Approach
Surface disturbing activities of any kind will be monitored by a
field representative. This representative will also coordinate
certain activities within the environmental discipline and may
coordinate activities among groups to avoid conflicts. Of particular
concern is the unintentional disturbance of an important
archaeological or historical site or an environmentally sensitive
area.
(c) Discussion
As the environmental, geotechnical and other study programs are
implemented, a certain amount of field sampling and testing will be
required. A field representative will be on hand to outline areas
that are sensitive to disturbance and also to monitor surface
disturbing activity while it is occurring. This monitoring will
ensure compliance with existing environmental regulations. In
certain instances, mitigation measures will be recommended to reduce
impacts.
The field representative will also have a certain amount of
coordination responsibilities. This will include coordinating
sampling locations of the various groups. Conflicts could arise, for
example, if one group plans to clear an area for testing purposes,
while another group is in the process of collecting biological data
that would be affected by such clearing. Although conflicts may not
always be avoidable, the field representative will be responsible for
keeping track of present or proposed sampling programs and notifying
groups when conflicts may occur.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) ••••••..••••••••••••
Liaison and review (Acres) ••••••••••
$88,000
2,000
Total Subtask 7.02 ••••••••••••••••• $90,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 130
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Subtask 7.03-Evaluation of Alternatives
(a) Objective
To compare, from an environmental standpoint, the various
alternatives for power generation and associated transmission
f ac i 1 it i es •
(b) Approach
AS-197
The environmental evaluation of power development alternatives will
identify the potential impact issues, and their relative magnitudes,
associated with alternative developments. The engineering staff of
Acres and wee will identify and describe the alternatives, and the
environmental staff of TES and wee will perform the environmental
analysis on the basis of available data, which will be compiled for
this purpose. Since the impact issues associated with the two-dam
scheme for the Upper Susitna have already been identified, this
scheme will be used as the yardstick against which other alternatives
will be measured.
(c) Discussion
The evaluation of alternatives will be completed as part of Task 1 -
Power Studies.
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Subtask 7.04-Water Resources Analysis
(a) Objective
A5-198
The primary objective of the water resources analysis is to generate
data that will be used to determine if the anadromous and resident
fisheries in the Susitna River or Cook Inlet will be enhanced or
adversely impacted by the proposed project. To achieve this objective
the following study areas must be addressed:
(1) Changes in river discharge characteristics due to flow
regulation.
(2) Changes in water quality due to impoundment including sediment
load, temperature, dissolved gas production as well as chemical
and biological constituents.
(3) Changes in wintering conditions along the river due to increased
low flow during the winter and changes in ice conditions.
A secondary objective of the water resources analysis will be to
assist in estimating the benefits to land use, recreation and flood
prevention balanced against the inundation of approximately 50,000
acres above the two dams.
(b) Approach
Accurate baseline water quantity and quality data are essential for
predicting the effect of the Susitna Project on the fisheries of the
Susitna River and for assuring that construction, filling and
operation of the hydroelectric project can be accomplished while
achieving possible beneficial environmental effects.
The water quantity and quality information needed will be taken from
the engineering studies, particularly Task 3 -Hydrology, from the
fisheries study, and from the water quality studies and geological
studies to be done by R&M as part of Task 3 and Task 5 -Geotechnical
Exploration.
(c) Discussion
Water quality conditions will be affected above and below the dam
sites. Stratification conditions within the reservoirs could cause
temperature and dissolved gas problems within the reservoir and
downstream. The supersaturation of nitrogen and other atmospheric
gases could cause gas bubble disease in the downstream fishery.
Previously unknown outcrops of soluble metal compounds could be
inundated by the reservoirs causing problems to the resident or
developing fish populations. Flow characteristics that are essential
for upstream migration of salmon to the spawning grounds and for
proper conditions for overwintering of both salmon and resident
fisheries will be studied. The section on fisheries• analysis covers
these topics in more detail •
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AS-199
Essentially all the technical data req~ired will be available at the
completion of Task 3 -Hydrology. However, to ensure that the correct
data is collected in a format useful to this subtask, early
coordination of the requirements of this subtask, with the lead
personnel responsible for the field and office studies completed under
Task 3, will be made. Information relative to parameters to be
tested, frequency and location will be provided as input to the
hydrologic and water quality field studies to be conducted by R&M.
Data relative to sediment loads, dropout rates and resuspension
downstream of Devil Canyon Dam will also be requested from the
hydrological and geological studies group. Stream bed degradation
will also be studied.
Finally, these data will be combined with input from the fisheries
subtask (Subtask 7.10) to assess the impact of the Susitna Project on
the fisheries. The data will also be used in Subtasks 7.07, 7.08
relative to land use and recreational development analysis.
It is anticipated that all activities on this specific subtask will be
completed before the FERC license application is submitted. However,
final use of the data in other subtasks will not occur until after the
license application has been submitted.
At the present time, no distinct water quality program is proposed for
the time period after license application submission other than that
to be conducted as part of the engineering studies and the in-situ
measurements taken in conjunction with fish sampling. If early
studies reveal a need for further water quality analysis, a program
will be developed and proposed at that time.
{d) Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) •••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
$ 7,000
3,500
Total Subtask 7.04 ••••••••••••••••••• $10,500
(~) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 130
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Subtask 7.05-Socioeconomic Analysis
(a) Objective
AS-200
The objective of this subtask is to identify and describe the existing
socioeconomic conditions and to determine which are most likely to be
impacted by the Susitna Hydroelectric Project, as required under the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulations. Subsequent to the
submission of the FERC license application, the detailed analysis and
assessments of the socioeconomic impacts related to the Susitna
development will be completed. Also the supplemental material to
amend the current Corps of Engineers• EIS for the Susitna Project will
be prepared.
{b) Approach
The completion of the socioeconomic analysis is not a prerequisite to
submission of the FERC license application. Thus, the work packages
to be completed have been divided into those that must be completed
prior to application submission (1 to 4 below) and these work packages
that may be completed during a later time period {discussed in Section
A.6). The work packages to be completed are:
(1) literature search
(2) socioeconomic profile development
{3) forecast of future socioeconomic conditions in the absence of the
Susitna Project
{4) preliminary socioeconomic impact studies
(5) forecast of future socioeconomic conditions with the Susitna
Project
{6) identification and evaluation of significant socioeconomic
project impacts
{7) assessment of economic aspects of important commercial,
recreational and subsistence fish and wildlife resources both
with and without project conditions
{8) determination and evaluation of project impacts on important
commercial, recreational and subsistence fish and wildlife
resource~
(9) assessment of social significance of the economic impacts of the
project on important commercial, recreational and subsistence
fish and wildlife resources
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A5-201
Impact studies of projects similar to the proposed project will be
identified and evaluated in the first step. Socioeconomic profiles
covering the immediate vicinity of the project, broader regions, and
the state are developed in the second step. Next, the socioeconomic
conditions most likely to be impacted by the Susitna Project are
identified and described in depth. For the identified socioeconomic
conditions, forecasts of future conditions are made. These forecasts
will serve as a baseline for the preliminary socioeconomic impact
studies as well as the detailed socioeconomic impact assessments of
project impacts to be completed in step 6.
Potential impacts of the project are next determined by comparing the
forecast 11 With the project 11 to the baseline forecast. This analysis
will yield quantitative estimates for impacts as well as qualitative
descriptions of impacts. Finally, an assessment of impacts is
performed to determine social and economic significance.
(c) Discussion
Impact studies of hydroelectric projects similar to the proposed
Susitna project will be reviewed. These reviews will provide a range
of impacts which may be expected to result from the proposed project.
Next, detailed socioeconomic profiles will be developed in the
following areas:
-Demographic data, current and projected
-Housing and public facilities• data
-Employment opportunity and income levels
-Business climate
-Government and infrastructure
-Tax consideration
-Transportation consideration
-Life style and quality of life
-Growth and development attitudes
These profiles will also include the range of impacts which may be
expected in the Alaskan environment. The range of impacts for large
hydroelectric projects combined with those in the Alaskan environment
will constitute a comprehensive list of potential impacts which may
result from the proposed Susitna project.
In the final step to be completed before license application
submission, relevant socioeconomic conditions are forecast. This
forecast is made assuming the Susitna Project will not be undertaken.
It includes only those areas which would be impacted by the Susitna
Project.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Orth & Associates) •••••••• $169,000
Task Force (TES) ••••••••••••••••••••• 13,200
Liaison and Review (Acres) ••••••••••• 2,800
Total Subtask 7.05 ••••••••••••••••••• $185,000
(e) Schedule
:l Weeks 1 through 87
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AS-202
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AS-203
Subtask 7.06 -Cultural Resource Investigation
(a) Objective
To identify the archaeological and historical resources of the project
study area and to propose mitigation measures to lessen the impact of
ground-disturbing preconstruction and construction activities.
(b) Approach
Cultural resource experts at the University of Alaska Museum (the
Museum) will execute an intensive five-step research effort
specifically tailored to satisfy both state and Federal legislation
pertinent to cultural resources. The five steps are:
(1) preparation for field studies;
(2) reconnaissance 1 evel archaeological survey of project areas;
(3) intensive testing of archaeological and historic sites discovered
during step (2) above;
(4) final report preparation; and
(5) curation of all collections in accordance with state and federal
requirements pertinent to the preservation of antiquities.
(c) Discussion
Little is known of the prehistory and history of the Susitna Project
study area as few archaeological investigations have been done in this
area. It is known, however, that six prehistoric and thirteen
historic sites have been identified in the study area. In surrounding
areas where archaeological investigations have been more intense, 630
prehistoric and historic sites have been documented. These facts
suggest that more intensive work in the project study area will
uncover as yet unidentified sites.
In step 1, the Museum will apply for, and secure, a Federal
Antiquities Permit. They will also seek any state documents that may
be necessary for the archaeological portion of the project. The Museum
will also conduct an exhaustive literature review of available
documents that pertain to topics relevant to their investigation in
this phase. The results of the literature search will be used to
synthesize the regional and local cultural chronology of the study
area.
Also during step 1, aerial photos will be examined to determine areas
of probable cultural resources. A preliminary aerial reconnaissance of
the study area will also be conducted.
Using the existing information base and relying
1 efforts, a research design will be developed.
also be established to specifically address the
of this project.
upon findings of Step
Sampling designs will
data collection needs
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A5-204
Step 2 will consist of the archaeological reconnaissance of the area
to identify, locate, and inventory archaeological and historic sites.
Any discovered sites will later be subject to more intensive
investigations. Also, during this step, archaeological sites in areas
to be disturbed by other preconstruction study activities will be
investigated.
Step 3 consists of intensive testing of sites located during the
reconnaissance survey. Each site will be divided into grids, and a
sampling scheme applied for testing. Also, site maps and soil
profiles will be prepared.
Photographs will be taken to document artifacts and features in situ
as well as to document the site and its location. Site limits will be
delineated and data will be recovered for analysis and evaluation.
National Registry will be proposed for all sites meeting National
Register of Historic Places criteria.
Step 4 will be an integral part of each step of the project. It
entails the compilation of the individual reports for the other steps
of the project as well as synthesizes all data recovered and makes
appropriate recommendations for mitigation, if necessary. Step 4 is
specifically aimed at the final analysis of the project in terms of
sites located and documented during the other study effort steps.
Step 5 involves the curation of materials deposited in the Museum.
All artifactual material and associated contextual data will be
curated in an ongoing program throughout the duration of the project
in a manner consistent with state and Federal requirements for the
preservation of antiquities.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (University of Alaska~
Museum) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (TES) ••••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$541,200
24,200
6,000
Total Subtask 7.06 ••••••••••••••••••• $571,400
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 118
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Subtask 7.07-Land Use Analysis
(a) Objective
AS-205
The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the present and future
land use trends and to identify the major changes in land use trends
that would result with the development of the project. Having
identified land ownership and changes in land use trends due to the
Susitna project, the land use impacts that would occur in the study
area as a direct result of the development of a project will be
determined and the significance of these impacts evaluated.
(b) Approach
The approach is basically an analysis of land use trends to determine
the major effects the project will have on the future and use of the
area. The historical land use trends will be analyzed and the present
land use of the area will be examined. The future land use of the area
without the project will be predicted on the basis of interviews with
land owners, land managers and resource agencies, and a consideration
of the resource potentials and limitations. Unique and significant
scenic and natural features of the area will be identified for
consideration during the impact analysis. A preliminary evaluation of
the potential land use impacts will be conducted, and the predicted
major effects of the project will be identified for inclusion with
the FERC license application.
Subsequent to submission of the license application, a more
comprehensive land use analysis will be completed based on a detailed
description of lands that would be developed and more detailed
information on the proposed operation of the project.
This would include a refinement of the information that was generated
during the previous phase, and a more detailed analysis of the lands
and land potentials that will be directly impacted by the project.
The probable impacts that were identified in the pre-license
application phase will be evaluated thoroughly, and the land use
changes that can be expected to occur as a direct result of the
project will be described. The significance of the changes will also
be evaluated and discussed •
(c) Discussion
This phase of the land use analysis will identify the major land use
impacts that are predicted to occur as a result of the Susitna
project. The first step in the land use analysis will be the
identification of the project area boundaries. These boundaries will
include adjacent lands that will be affected or influenced by the
project, as well as access roads and transmission corridors. The
downstream effects will also be considered in the overall land use
analysis. The boundaries will be flexible and adjusted as updated
information is obtained •
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AS-206
An understanding of the historical land use trends is necessary to
isolate the factors and management decisions that have resulted in the
present land use patterns. This understanding will be developed
through a review of the University Archives materials, additional
published sources, and interviews with agency and native leaders. Of
particular importance will be the identification of any cyclic changes
that have taken place.
A complete description of the present land use will be developed. A
base map and photo file will be developed along with a narrative
description. The present land use will be described in terms of the
extent of present uses such as forest land, recreation, wildlife,
developed uses, etc. As much as possible, this description will
include a discussion of the planning efforts that have resulted n the
present utilization of the land.
Having identified the lands that may be affected by the Susitna
Project, the next step will be to determine land ownership as Federal
(including agency jurisdiction), state, private, and Native
Corporation. Land ownership status may be in transition due to the
·Alaska-Native Claims Settlement Act and State Selection under the
Statehood Act. Land management plans and regulations affecting
alternatives will be evaluated. The various Federal and state
agencies, and some Native Corporations will have land classification
and management systems governing activites that are allowed on those
lands and waters being managed.
To predict the future land use without the project, area lands will be
evaluated in terms of resource potentials and limitations for
alternative uses. This evaluation will be accomplished in relation to
other expected changes that are predicted to occur within the area
such as changes in land ownership, access, etc. The major land owners
and land managers will be interviewed to discuss their future plans
for the area. The anticipated changes that are predicted by the land
owners and managers, as well as other agencies, will provide insight
into the most probable future of the land.
The significant land uses that have been identified during the
previous steps will be examined during a field reconnaissance of the
area. Unique or significant scenic and natural areas that have been
tentatively identified on aerial photographs will also be examined
during this initial field reconnaissance. These unique and
significant features will be described, and the impacts on the
features will be evaluated in more detail.
Finally, the potential land use impacts of the proposed project will
be evaluated with the objective of identifying the major impacts that
can be predicted to occur as a result of this project. The impacts
wi 11 be i dent i fi ed on the basis of a 11 the information that· has been
developed prior to license application submittal. The impacts that
are identified during this phase will be evaluated in greater detail
during the next phase of this analysis.
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A5.,.207
It sho.uld be noted that the Land Use Analysis will draw nearly on the
physical outputs of Task 2: Surveys and site facilities for
assistance in mapping of current land use and provisions of aerial
photos of the project area.
(d) Level of Effort ·
Task Force (TES) ••••••••••••.•••••.••
Task Force (University of Alaska
Museum) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••
$19,200
48,800
1,000
Total Subtask 7.07 •••••••••••••••••••• $69,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 126
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Subtask 7.08 -Analysis of Recreation Development
(a) Objective
The objectives of this subtask are: ·
AS-208
(1) to develop a procedures• manual that will provide the framework
for the development of the master plan for the recreational use
of the project lands and waters;
(2) to conduct a review of the literature pertinent to this planning
effort
(3) to develop a base map of the study area identifying the primary
attractors within the area and a preliminary zoning of areas
suitable for recreational development.
(b) Approach
Dr. Alan Jubenville, Principal Investigator for this subtask effort,
will prepare a procedures• manual that will provide documentation of
the study design, sampling methodologies and analysis procedures to be
followed throughout this planning process. A review of the existing
literature will be conducted to accumulate background information on
water resource planning for recreation, supply-demand modeling,
participation patterns, changes in socioeconomic casual factors and
user perceptions of specific recreational experiences. A preliminary
assessment of the resource potentials for recreation will also be
conducted, utilizing aerial photography and field reconnaissance. On
the basis of this preliminary assessment, a base map of the area will
be developed.
(c) Discussion
The procedures manual will be developed to establish a detailed
framework for the entire planning process. It will be developed in
this initial phase to insure that study design, data collection and
data analysis are consistent with the needs of this planning effort.
It will also insure consistency throughout the process, including the
application of field evaluation techniques.
The review of the existing literature will provide information
necessary for the development of the recreation plan. It will include
a complete review of pertinent perodicals and texts, and agency
publications related to Alaska, including the Statewide Comprehens~ve
Outdoor Recreation Plan. It will also review Susitna Valley
references, both popular and technical.
The potential of a given parcel of land for recreational use is
directly related to the benefits that people can derive from using it.
The potentials are determined by the setting and natural attributes of
the site, and also by the capabilities of the site to withstand use.
Both of these considerations will be used in this planning process to
evaluate the potentials of the resource for recreational use •
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A preliminary assessment of the resource potentials will be completed
in this-phase. An initial evaluation of the project area will be
completed in the lab, using vertical aerial photography to isolate
potential sites. The project lands will be evaluated on the basis of
general resource capabilities, levels of access and anticipated
management problems (such as natural hazards). This initial
evaluation will determine the zones that have greatest potential for
development. Selected suitable areas, potential visitor attractions
and related management concerns will be located on a base map and
evaluated during a field reconnaissance. The summer field season will
be spent assessing the potentials and the inherent limitations of the
areas. Standardized criteria will be utilized to eliminate personal
bias in the field site evaluation process.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) •••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (University of Alaska) ••••
$ 9,700
14,400
Total Subtask 7.08 ••••••••••••••••••• $24,100
(e) Schedule
Weeks 52 through 126
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A5-210
Subtask 7.09-Susitna Transmission Line Assessment
(a) Objective
The objective of this task is to provide input into the selection of
an environmentally sound one-half mile wide transmission line
corridor from the Susitna Project area to load center substations in
or near both Anchorage and Fairbanks.
{b) Approach
The corridor will be selected by means of the following process:
(1) conduct literature search for pertinent data sources;
(2) concurrently, obtain aerial photography and land-based
photography for the study area routing analysis;
{3) review alternative routes proposed by previous studies and
select project-specific alternative corridors;
{4) conduct site-sensitive avoidance routing analysis on alternative
routes;
{5) provide 1nput into the selection of a primary, one-half mile
wide corridor;
{6) define criteria for establishing and conducting final design and ·
location analyses.
(c) Discussion
A wealth of data dealing with the selection and evaluation of
transmission line corridors exists with respect to the Susitna
Project (note list of previous studies at end of discussion).
Several studies have been obtained and reviewed. They will serve as
a basis for initiating project investigations. All data sources
pertinent to a routing impact analysis will be obtained and
catalogued for further reference.
Aerial photography exists for much, if not all, of the proposed
routing analysis study area. In addition, other photography
available for the study area, including land-based photography, will
be sought. Many sensitive or unique areas within the Central
Railbelt area have been photographed during previous studies,
including many areas within the transmission corridor study area.
All such available photographs will be catalogued and stored for
further reference.
Transmission line corridors proposed by other studies will be
reviewed and recommendations as to their environmental acceptability
will be provided. Criteria will be established for the purpose of
avoiding, where possible, areas such as wetlands, steep mountain
slopes, scenic vistas, population centers, and other constraints.
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The criteria will be applied to all alternative route segments.
Following an analysis of the data, a primary corridor of approxi-
mately ten miles will be selected.
A5-211
Additional criteria will be established to provide rationale for
further refinement of the primary corridor. Items such as access,
clearing requirements, soils limitations (where applicable) and
restoration requirements, to name a few, will be factored into the
analysis process. The end result of this effort will be a proposed
primary corridor of one-half mile width between the project and both
Anchorage and Fairbanks.
TES will assist Acres in the selection of both the ten mile and
one-half mile wide primary transmission line corridors. Based upon
the alternative routes proposed by Acres, TES will conduct the
necessary environmental analysis and identify sensitive areas. TES
will also provide environmental input into the development of
criteria to be utilized for further corridor refinement studies.
List of Previous Studies
1) International Engineering Company, Inc., Anchorage-Fairbanks
Transmission Intertie -Economic Feasibility Study Report
April 1979.
2) Robert W. Retherford Associates, North Slope Natural Gas
Transport Systems and Their Potential Impact on Electric Power
Supply and Uses in Alaska, March 1977.
3) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Southcentral Railbelt Area, Alaska 2 U er Susitna River Basin Interim Feasibilit Re ort, (Appendix
I, Part II G Marketability Analysis, H Transmission System,
(I) Environmental Assessment for Transmission Systems,
December 1975.
4) Kozak, Edwin, under the direction of J. R. Eaton, Performance
Characteristics of a 350-Mile Electric Power Transmission Line
(Fairbanks to Anchorage), A project in EE 494, Department of
Electrical Engineering, University of Alaska, June 1973.
5) Ch2M-Hill, Electrical Generation and Transmission Intertie System
for Interior and Southcentral Alaska, 1972.
6) Federal Power Commission, Alaska Power Survey, 1969.
7) Alaska Power Administration, Alaska Railbelt Transmission System,
working paper, December 1967.
8) The Ralph M. Parsons Company, Central Alaska Power Study,
undated.
9) The Ralph M. Parsons Company, Alaska Power Feasibility Study,
1962.
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(d) Level of Effort
·Work Force (TES) ••••••••••••••••••••• $18,000
Work Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $ 6,000
Total Subtask 7.09 ••••••••••••••••••• $24,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 130
AS-212
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Subtask 7.10-Fish Ecology Baseline Studies and Analysis
(a) Objective
AS-213
(1) to evaluate the resident fishery in the Susitna River and
predict the effects of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project during
construction, filling and operation;
(2) to evaluate the anadromous fishery (salmon) in the lower Susitna
River and Cook Inlet and predict the effects of the Susitna
Hydroelectric Project on migration, spawning and survival of the
Susitna River salmon;
(3) to identify areas needing possible future study; and
(4) to provide essential information for license application.
(b) Approach
The studies proposed at this time have been based upon the
establishment of an Operations Office in Anchorage for the
coordination and administration of the studies, and subcontracting
portions of the studies to research groups at the University of
Alaska and/or state or Federal agencies including ADF&G. These
research units are competent in the specialized disciplines required,
are familiar with the field conditions in Alaska and, in general,
provide an efficient base for the studies.
(d) Discussion
The construction of power dams on the Susitna River can affect
positively or negatively portions of the salmon runs and game fish
resources of the Susitna River Basin. The studies necessary for an
understanding of the effects on the game fish resources below the dam
sites are essentially the same as those required to protect or
enhance the salmon resources in the same area. It is reported (for
example, Corps' EIS for the Susitna Projects) that there are no
salmon stocks above Devil Canyon. There are, however, game fish
above that section that will be affected by the creation of lakes as
opposed to the free-flowing river.
The extent to which the main river is used, both for spawning and
rearing of commercial species, has yet to be demonstrated. It is
known that both adults and juveniles use the river channel for
transportat-ion to their spawning and rearing areas. There may be, as
there are in many streams, a winter-over capacity utilized by many
fish that normally reside in clear tributaries but migrate into areas
that have continuous winter flows and, therefore, this river may play
an important part in their life cycle. This is a necessary part of
the study.
This project, like all hydroelectric projects in which major storages
are involved, has three periods that must be considered after the
baseline studies have been conducted. These periods are the
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AS-214
construction period, the filling period and plant operation. The
baseline studies are required to develop criteria for protecting the
fish and, perhaps, in the final period, enhancing the fishery.
During the first phase of this project the following studies are
proposed.
-Evaluate the contribution of the Susitna River salmon population to
the Cook Inlet fisheries. An attempt will be made to determine
quantitatively the portion of the total catch originating in the
Susitna River drainage. Identification and separation of the
various stocks will be made by using differences in scale patterns
and by electrophoresic analyses of tissue samples.
-The distribution and movement of adult and juvenile salmon in the
lower Susitna River will be examined. The location and importance
of known salmon spawning areas in the lower Susitna River as well
as the time and migratory patterns of the various species and races
of salmon ascending the river will be examined.
-The production of the proposed reservoirs will be evaluated by
examining lakes in the general area of the proposed reservoirs.
This study will be done by using available data with field data
being collected as needed.
-A search will be-conducted to determine the presence (or absence)
of endangered species. The Endangered Species Conservation Act of
1969 and subsequent regulations give the Secretary of the Interior
broad powers to protect a species of fish whose existence is
threatened with destruction, drastic modification, or severe
curtailment. The extent of these powers are already well
demonstrated by the famous case of the snail darter, and
accordingly every effort must be made to determine if any
endangered species live within the areas to be inundated.
-Water quantity and quality data collected in Subtask 7.04 will be
needed to establish baseline information. These data will provide
information for developing criteria for the construction phase, the
filling phase and the operational phase. Gauging stations will be
placed at predetermined sites as part of Task 3 work effort. Flow,
sediment and other parameters will be measured at each station.
-The basin above the dam sites will be examined to determine the
fish stocks that are likely to populate the reservoirs.
-Ice cover will be examined and the problem of frazile ice will have
to be evaluated (input from Task 3). A literature review will be
done to examine the problems that may have arisen at other projects
in sub-arctic zones. The stability of the present stream bed below
the dam sites should be measured (input from Task 3).
All of the studies are necessary to judge the effects that the
Susitna Hydroelectric Project might have on the aquatic habitat and
subsequently the fisheries. The anadromous fisheries should be
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A5-215
examined through a complete cycle, although this extends beyond the
scheduled time of license application. Thus, the post-license
application submission studies will be required to adequately address
the impact of the proposed project upon this important resource •
(e) Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (Consultants and University of Alaska).
Task Force (ADF&G) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Liaison and Review (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••
Total Subtask 7.10 ...............................
(f) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 130
$ 74,ooo0)
695,6oo(1)
494,6oo(1)
12,600
$1,276,800
(1) Subject to refinement following negotiations between APA and
ADF&G.
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Subtask 7.11 -Wildlife Ecology Baseline Studies and Analysi~
(a) Objective
The primary objective of this subtask is to accurately determine the
impact the proposed Susitna Project will have on the wildlife
resources of the Upper Susitna River Basin. In order to accomplish
this objective, it will first be necessary to: 1) determine the
species present, their distribution and relative abundance; 2) gather
sufficient data to develop an understanding of the relationship
between key wildlife species and the distribution, quality and
seasonal utilization of habitat components; and 3) determine the
predator-prey relationships that exist in the terrestrial system.
Since there are complicated interrelationships among all faunal
members of the terrestrial community, be they key species or not, it
is necessary to consider all components of the system in order to
gain a total understanding of community dynamics.
(b) Approach
In order to achieve the objectives of this study, an appropriate
approach has been developed for each section. Following is a summary
of the approach that will be taken in regards to: 1) big game, 2)
furbearers, and 3) birds and small mammals.
(1) Big Game
It is anticipated that the Alaska Power Authority will contract
directly with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) to
collect and analyze the baseline data needed to evaluate the
project impact on big game. Thus, all portions of this Plan of
Study that concern big game are based on the March 1978 program
developed by ADF&G. ADF&G will be requested to conduct that
portion of their program dealing with the following species:
moose, caribou, wolves, bears, wolverines and Dall sheep.
Although ADF&G did outline an effort to study mitigation
measures for moose, we recommend that this portion of the effort
be reassessed and developed in more detail during the first two
years of the study; therefore, this portion is not included in
the present program. In order to assure that the big game
portion of this study is coordinated with the entire
environmental analysis effort, the Environmental Study Managers
designated by Acres and TES will maintain close liaison and
coordination with ADF&G•s staff. Both APA and Acres• Project
Manager, J. Lawrence, will receive minutes of all meetings
held.
Acknowledging that ADF&G is the group best qualified to collect
the baseline data on big game, there exists the potential of a
conflict if ADF&G were to conduct the impact analysis as well as
serve in a regulatory review capacity. In order to avoid any
delays that could occur if this conflict is challenged by other
agencies or interveners, we propose a team of TES staff and
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AS-217
expert consultants to develop an impact assessment based on data
collected by ADF&G. The securing of an independent assessment
will avoid serious problems that could develop if ADF&G were to
serve in the dual capacity of performing both impact analysis
and impact review. Because the impact assessment is extremely
important, the selection of an appropriate individual or team
should not be a hasty process. Therefore, we propose to utilize
the first year of the study to form the team. We shall solicit
recommendations from ADF&G, USF&W and other agencies and secure
the approval of the APA prior to finalizing any arrangements.
Following is a list of species-specific tasks proposed by ADF&G
to be conducted during the data collection portion of this
program. Co11ection of these data is necessary to achieve the
objectives of the study. These tasks will be initiated prior to
submission of the FERC license application and continued
approximately three years after the submission of the
application.
Moose
Preparation of a vegetation type map of areas within and
adjacent to proposed impoundments, along transmission corridors
and along the downstream floodplain.
Identification of key moose browse species and determination of
the condition and trends of selected moose habitats.
Determination of the effects of altered water flow on key p 1 ant
species and mapping of areas where substantial vegetation
changes will occur.
Identification of moose subpopulations using habitat that will
be subject to direct and indirect impact of the Susitna
Hydropower Project.
Determination of the seasonal distribution, movement patterns,
size and trends of those subpopulations.
Determination of the timing and degree of dependency of those
subpopulations on habitat to be impacted by the Susitna
Hydropower Project.
Caribou
Identification of subpopulations of caribou in the Nelchina
Basin.
Determination of the seasonal ranges and migration routes of
these subpopulations with emphasis on traditional migration
routes across proposed impoundment areas and potential
alternative routes.
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A5-218
Determination of the availability of suitable alternative
seasonal ranges to caribou subpopulations that might be isolated
from traditional ranges by the proposed impoundments.
Wolves
Determination of the number of wolf packs that inhabit areas to
be directly affected by the Susitna Hydropower Project, and the
number of wolves in each pack.
Determination of the proportions of each pack's territory that
lie within areas of impact.
Determination of the location of dens, rendezvous sites, hunting
areas and the other essential activity areas of each pack in
relation to proposed impoundments and construction activities.
Determination of the dependence of each pack on prey populations
that may be adversely affected by the project.
Bears
Estimation of the numbers of black and brown/grizzly bears using
the area to be impacted by the Susitna Hydropower Project.
Determination of the dependency of these bears on areas to be
impacted, with emphasis on identification of denning areas and
seasonal feeding areas.
Wolverines
Determination of the population status of wolverines using areas
to be impacted by the Susitna Hydropower Project.
Determination of movement patterns and identification of
habitats of seasonal importance of wolverines.
Dall sheep
Determination of the numbers of Dall sheep inhabiting mountains
adjacent to proposed dam sites.
Delineation of the seasonal ranges of the sheep population
(2) Furbearers
The furbearer study effort during the pre-application phase will
be a two-year survey and will include an extensive investigation
of populations within the project region. This will include a
literature search, as well as the identification of key species,
general abundance levels, and the location of critical habitats.
To accomplish this, data will be gathered from aerial surveys
and ground surveys, and as much data as possible will be
obtained from trappers. Based on the results of these surveys
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AS-219
and the vegetation cover map, as well as data collected from
other portions of the study (e.g., small mammals), a general map
of critical habitats and areas of notable abundance will be
produced.
(3) Birds and Small Animals
We propose to use an extensive approach for the pre-application
phase of these studies. The extensive bird study will alert us
to the presence of possibly unexpected species or unexpected
concentrations of species, and it will enable us to compare the
avifauna (species, relative abundance, habitat use and seasonal
chronologies) with better known Alaska taigas, giving us the
necessary base for impact predictions. The extensive study will
also provide data on species not found in the habitats of the
intensive study sites where sampling will be conducted.
In regards to small mammals, trapping efforts will be conducted
to determine the species of small and medium-sized non-game
mammals occurring in the region. For each of the major habitats
of the region, species composition, relative abundance and
habitat use will be determined.
(c) Discussion
In dealing with such a large area as is represented by the Upper
Susitna River Basin, and attempting to develop an adequate
understanding of potential impacts and possible mitigation measures,
it is necessary to study the entire faunal community and delineate
the complex interrelationships that exist among the components of the
terrestrial system. We realize that certain portions, or species,
within the system are considered important by certain groups or
agencies. This plan of study has been designed to concentrate on
such important species; however, regardless of the importance of
these species, they are all part of the total community system and a
satisfactory understanding of any member of the system cannot be
developed without investigating the entire system. Many of the study
plans that preceded the development of this plan failed to express an
understanding of the complexity of the situation and subsequently
ignored many species that are integral to the total dynamics of the
system, or may be considered important by other portions of our
society. This plan of study is designed to assure that a complete,
and thus more accurate, assessment of the wildlife-related impacts
will be executed.
These initial studies include all portions of the work effort that,
at a minimum, will have to be conducted if an adequate license
application is to be prepared. Most of the data will be available
for inclusion into the application; however, in regards to big game,
a 4 to 5 year·effort will be necessary. It is virtually impossible
to gather adequate data on these species within the time allotted for
the preparation of the application. Therefore, the license
application will include only preliminary data and tentative
discussions concerning big game impact. It is vital that all
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AS-220
parties concerned realize that in the case of many species a minimum
of 4 or 5 years is needed to gain a thorough understanding of habitat
and predator-prey relationships. In addition, many species,
particularly small to medium-sized mammals, demonstrate cyclic
changes in density; and thus a 1 or 2 year study is highly
restrictive in perspective. Likewise, larger species such as moose
and caribou demonstrate different movement patterns and habitat needs
under various weather conditions. So here again, sufficient time
must be expended in gathering an adequate data base. Studies
proposed after the licensing application is submitted are designed to
satisfy the time requirements of some aspects of the Susitna study
and assume that adequate consideration of the basic. research needs
are addressed.
(d) Level of Effort (1)
Task Force (TES) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 91,800~1)
Task Force (University of Alaska) ••••••••••••••••• 506,900 1)
Task Force (ADF&G) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1,361,300(1)
Liaison and Review (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••••• 14,000
Total Subtask 7.11 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $1,974,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 104
(1) Subject to refinement following negotiations between APA and
ADF&G.
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Subtask 7.12-Plant Ecology Baseline Studies and Analysis
(a) Objective
AS-221
The objectives of the plant ecology program are to map and
characterize the vegetation and habitat types occurring in the areas
to be affected by the proposed Susitna Hydroelectric Dam Project and
to predict impacts that will result from the proposed facilities.
(b) Approach
Vegetation types will be mapped on topographic maps of the area as
well as on LANDSAT, high-altitude (U2), and low-level aerial
photography. Respective land areas covered by each
vegetation/habitat type will be determined by manual planimetry or
computer integration from LANDSAT imagery after the types have been
circumscribed. Ground verification and qualitative assessments will
be performed. Sensitive habitats, especially wetlands and those
containing proposed endangered or threatened species of plants, will
be emphasized, and any natural landmarks (U.S. National Park Service
Programs) in the area will also be noted.
Preliminary impact assessments of the ecological effects of the dam
project, access road, and the siting of transmission lines will be
made as the proposed routes are developed, and the field studies are
performed.
(c) Discussion
The characterization of vegetation types within an area provides a
great deal of information for use in environmental studies. Such
information is not only used for the prediction of impacts on plant
communities, but it is also used in predicting wildlife habitat
removal and changes in land use patterns.
This phase of the vegetation analysis will include a literature
review, the preparation of a vegetation cover map, a qualitative
assessment of the major vegetation types, a timber inventory, a
review of proposed endangered species, and a preliminary impact
assessment. Each vegetation type will be mapped on aerial
photographs, ground truthed and qualitatively assessed for general
species composition. The mapping will primarily be performed in the
June-September 1980 period with refinement and additional mapping for
the access road and transmission corridors being performed in 1981.
Although there are no plant species presently listed for Alaska as
endangered or threatened by Federal or state authorities, six species
have been proposed by the Fish and Wildlife Service for protection as
endangered. For these species distribution and habitat information
will be assembled from literature and herbaria sources. Known
stations and potential habitats for these species in the study area
will be searched to determine the present status.
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AS-222
A review of the available literature will be performed throughout the
study to elucidate data voids and support report discussions. A
forest inventory will be performed using standard U.S. Forest Service
methods.
Impacts on vegetation will be predicted utilizing information
gathered prior to license application. The prediction of vegetation
impacts will rely primarily on the vegetation cover type maps.
Acreage of the various cover types to be destroyed or altered will be
estimated.
{d) Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) •••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force {University of Alaska) ••••
$ 54,000
189,800
Total Subtask 7.12 ••••••••••••••••••• $243,800
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 117
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Subtask 7.13-Geological Analysis
This subtask will be completed as part of the studies conducted under
Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration.
AS-223
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AS-224
Subtask 7.14-Access Road Environmental Analysis
(a) Objective
The objectives of this subtask are to provide input into the selection
of an access road route that will be environmentally sound and to
provide an impact assessment of the preferred route.
(b) Approach
This subtask will initially involve the comparison of alternative
routes. Major environmental constraints will be mapped along the
various proposed alternative routes. One preferred route will then be
selected that will be feasible from environmental, economic and
engineering viewpoints. Direct and indirect impacts of the proposed
action will be discussed in the environmental report.
(c) Discussion
(d)
(e)
The first part of this subtask will be the screening of alternative
routes. The screening process will be a coordination effort between
R&M Consultants, Inc., Acres and TES. R&M and Acres will initially
propose various viable alternative routes or areas where viable
alternatives could be proposed. TES will then provide a map or a
discussion of the various major environmental constraints, (cultural
resources, critical wildlife habitats, wetlands habitat for endangered
or threatened species, etc.) in these areas. A proposed route will
then be selected taking environmental, engineering and economic
concerns into consideration.
Once a proposed route is selected, more detailed environmental
information will be collected for that specific route. Examples of
environmental information include a vegetation cover map, wildlife
habitats, biological information for any water bodies crossed and
other pertinent environmental information.
Impacts of the proposed access road will be presented. The impacts of
associated activities, such as the acquisition of fill material, will
be addressed. Socioeconomic, land use, and recreation impacts related
to increased access to the area will also be discussed •
The comparison of alternative access roads will be performed primarily
in the first year. More detailed information on the proposed route
will be collected during the second summer.
Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) •••• ~ •••••.••••••••••• $26,000
Liaison and Review (Acres) ••••••••••• 2,000
Total Subtask 7.14 ••••••••••••••••••• $28,000
Schedule
Weeks 1 through 112 •~----------------~
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A5-225
Subtask 7.15-Preparation of FERC License Application Exhibits
(a) Objective
The objective of this subtask is to compile and organize the reports
of all the various environmental disciplines into one environmental
report required for the license application submission to the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission.
(b) Approach
The collation and organization of the various environmental reports
into a license application environmental report will require keeping
abreast of the changes in regulations, report format and
implementation procedures throughout the project period. An
environmental report commensurate with the regulations in effect
during the time of submission will then be prepared.
(c) Discussion
(d)
(e)
An environmental impact statement for the proposed Susitna River
Project is required under various Commission Orders of the FERC, and
in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
Presently the FERC regulations pertinent to the environmental studies
are Exhibits R, S, V and W. For major hydroelectric projects, these
Exhibits are currently being reorganized into Exhibit E-
Environmental. Officials of FERC are not certain as to when the
reorganization will be completed, but it will be effective before
application submission for the Susitna Project.
As the project prgresses any revised environmental legislation
pertinent to the proposed project will be obtained. These
regulations will be reviewed and action taken to insure compliance as
part of the Coordination Subtask (7.01).
Regulations in effect at the time of the permit applicatiion will be
used for preparation of the exhibits for the environmental report.
Although the format of the environmental report will depend upon the
revised regulations, it is antici~ated that the FERC environmental
report outline will follow the recently effective (July 30, 1979)
Implementation of Procedural Provisions promulgated by the Council on
Environmental Quality. Certain parts of the reports for the various
disciplines will be summarized or reorganized to meet the
requirements. Sections typing different disciplines together will
also be prepared.
Level of Effort
Task Force (TES) ..................... $ 44,500
Liaison and review (Acres) ••••••••••• 4 2 500
Total Subtask 7.14 ................... $ 49,000
Schedule
Weeks 105 through 125
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1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
J F M A M J J A s o N D J F M A M J J A s o N D J F M A M J J A s o N D J F M A M J J A s o N D J F M A M J J A s I oJ N J D
"
PROCEDURES
MANUAL
OBTAIN PERMITS FOR SAMPLING
COMPILE 8 REVIEW EXISTING
INFORMATION
REFINE PLAN OF STUDY a
PREPARE PROCEDURES MANUAL
PERFORM FIELD STUDIES
PREPARE QUARTERLY REPORTS
PERFORM IMPACT ANALYSIS
PREPARE EXHIBITS
PREPARE WRITTEN TESTIMONY a
RESPONSES TO INTERRAGATORIES
OBTAIN REQUIRED INPUT
NOTICE
TO
PROCEED
IDENTIFY
DATA VOIDS
* LICENSE APPLICATION STUDIES
SOCIOECONOMICS
CULTURAL RESOURCES
LAND USE
RECREATION
WATER QUALITY
FISHERIES
WILDLIFE
PLANT ECOLOGY
t
LICENSE APPLICATION STUDIES*
l t t
DESIGN SPECS. FOR
DAMS a RELATED
FACILITIES
DEVELOPMENT
* SUPPLEMENTARY STUDIES
(ALL DISCIPLINES, AS REQUIRED)
LICENSE WRITTEN
APPLICATION TESTIMONY
+ +
FIRST
SUPPLEMENTARY
REPORT
+
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REFINEMENT ·----................... lll--""1-•i"•i"·•· __ ...
SECOND
SUPPLEMENTARY
REPORT
EXHIBIT E SUPPLEMENTARY SUPPLEMENTARY
ANTICIPATED
COMMISSION
ORDER
WRITTEN
TESTIMONY
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COMMENTS FROM FERC, ADFaG, USFWS, THE PUBLIC, ETC.
SUSITNA HYOROE LECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE T7.1: TASK 1 SCHEDULE
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A.5.9 -TASK 8: TRANSMISSION
(i) Task Objectives
To select the transmission route, produce conceptual designs and
cost estimates for the FERC license application for the following
project components:
-Transmission line linking the project damsites to Fairbanks and
Anchorage, together with potential intermediate stations to feed
local communities
-Substations, with particular reference to the two major
terminals at Fairbanks and Anchorage, together with a suitable
design for intermediate load points
-Dispatch center and communications system
(ii) Task Output
During 1980
Issue a design memorandum outlining the results of the Acres
review of the 1979 IECO report and a preliminary screening of the
routes identified in that report.
During 1982
Basic design information dealing with the following aspects:
-Transmission line voltage level
• Tower types
.Route map
.Conductor data
.Insulation levels
.Construction access
.Construction schedule
.Cost estimates
-Substations
.Single-line diagram for each main type of substation
.General arrangement drawings
.Transformer criteria
.Circuit-breaker criteria
.Outline of relay protection philosophy
• Cost estimates
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-Dispatch Center and Communications
.Location and size of center
.Level of automation proposed for remote stations
.Extent of real-time functions required
.Type of communication channel proposed together with
appropriate data transmission rates
.Basic type of software
.Man-Machine interface
AS-227
In addition, descriptions of the design studies wfll be written up
for inclusion in the Project Feasibility Report and documention
for the FERC license application will be prepared.
List of Subtasks
8.01 -Transmission Line -Corridor Screening -1980
8.02 -Electric Systems Studies
8. 03 -Transmission Line-Route Selection-1981
8.04 -Tower, Hardware and Conductor Studies
8.05 -Substations
8. 06 -Dispatch Center and Communications
8.07 -Transmission Line Cost Estimate
Subtask Scope Statements
Our basic approach to the work outlined in this task will
initially be to review the 1979 IECO report with respect to their
approach and their level of detail. Following this, we will
undertake more detailed study and conceptual design up to a 1 evel
appropriate for FERC license and for basic technical and economic
feasibility.
Included in this work will be the utilization of such geologic
(Task 5) and climatologic (Task 3) field data as can be obtained
during that study period. We also propose an extensive field
reconnaissance during 1980 plus mapping a limited selection of key
sections of the various corridors (Task 2).
The field reconnaissance, review of the IECO studies, and
preliminary screening of the corridors will take place during
1980 (Subtask 8.01). During this period we will also start the
electric system studies (Subtask 8.02). During 1981 the general
location of the transmission line route(s) within the selected
corridor(s) will be established (Subtask 8.03) and conceptual
designs produced. Design studies and cost estimates for the
Towers, Hardware and Conductors (Subtask 8.04), Substations
(Subtask 8.05), and Dispatch and Communications Center (Subtask
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AS-228
8.06) will also be developed. Particular attention will be
devoted to producing feasibility-type cost estimates and to
reconcile the differences between previous estimates made by IECO
and the Alaska Power Administration.
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AS-229
Subtask 8.01 -Transmission Line Corridor Screening-1980
(a) Objective
To initially review the 1979 IECO report, to eliminate some of the
less attractive corridors, to identify such considerations of route
selection that may require additional work and to plan the 1981 field
data collection.
(b) Approach
This activity will involve an extensive field reconnaissance of
selected potential corridors. We also anticipate being given
full access to all available IECO data with regard to system studies
(load flow, etc.) and also structural studies of towers if such
exist. This subtask would also include a more detailed review of the
economics of a DC alternative.
Once the above-mentioned review studies have been completed, a
preliminary screening study will be undertaken to eliminate the
obviously less desirable corridors from further consideration. The
corridors selected for further study will be identified as bands on
the one inch to one mile mapping and made available as input for the
biological and foundations studies. The centerline of these bands
will also be marked upon existing photography coverage. This,
together with the marked-up one inch to one mile maps, will be used
to direct the high aerial photographic program which will provide
specific coverage along the potential routes.
The preferred corridors will be made available in time for the start
of the 1981 surrnner survey season so that the required geological
exploration and mapping work can be undertaken. For this stage of
the work, we propose to define a number of key sections of the
various corridors for mapping in the 1981 season. Such sections
will be chosen as being typical of the various features of the
corridor, muskeg, permafrost, steep grades, etc. For the purposes of
the present submission, we propose that each section be between 5 and
10 miles in length and that up to 10 such sections will be mapped.
(c) Discussion
The prescreening activities will be carried out on the basis of the
following considerations:
-Review of all background data (USBR, IECO,etc.).
-Assessment of differential costs as determined by geological or
climate considerations.
-Relative assessment of environmental considerations, land use,
etc.
-Review of such power system related aspects as the number of
intermediate load points to be served.
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A5-230
We anticipate that this prescreening process will allow us to
eliminate in the region of 75% of the currently identified routes.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••••• $83,200
(d) Schedule
Weeks 11 through 52
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Subtask 8.02 -Electric System Studies
(a) Objective
AS-231
To ensure that the electrical aspects of the project design are
integrated with the existing Railbelt area power systems and to
design an electrical power system which is reliable and economic.
(b) Approach
The fo 11 owing steps \'li 11 be carried out:
-Review all previous studies (including source data and computer
outputs if avail able)
-In the event that no load-flow studies have as yet been done, the
following data would be obtained from the APA and other utilities:
generating station plant capacity
--transmission lines impedances
--substation transformer capacities and loads
-Obtain information from the load forecasting study (Task 1)
including details of the following:
--existing load conditions
--historical load growth
--1 oad and energy projections
--daily and annual load duration curves
--location of load centers
-Meet with APA, the Alaska Power Administration and the Railbelt
utilities to obtain system data and review of proposed future
expansion at the utility level.
Determine economic and security criteria and review with APA.
-Determine main and intermediate substation locations and
capacities.
-Establish transmission line requirements, including most economical
voltage levels together with conductor sizes and appropriate
spacings.
-Perform preliminary load flow studies to verify transmission system
configuration and parameters.
-Determine line energizing and compensation requirements.
-Establish general electrical equipment specifications such as:
--insulation levels
--equipment ratings and connections
--transformer tap ranges
--switchyard single-line diagrams
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AS-232
Acres has developed a comprehensive set of computer programs which
will be employed to assist the foregoing studies. These programs
include:
-Load-flow -Newton Raphson Method (Acres Program No. EL 012)
-Three-Phase Short Circuit (Acres Program No. EL 020)
-Transient Stability (Acres Program No. EL 030)
-Dynamic Stability (Acres Program No. EL 034)
-Transmission Line Dynamic Overvoltages (Acres Program No. EL 831)
-Conductor Thermal Current Rating (Acres Program No. EL 834)
The studies will identify the basic transmission line requirements
and characteristics of electrical substation equipment, generation
equipment and relay protection.
(c) Discussion
We anticipate that during 1980, load-flow studies would be made for a
variety of preliminary system configurations. During 1981, these
load flow studies would be refined to represent the preferred system.
During the latter period, short circuit and stability studies would
also be carried out.
A study of potential grounding problems associated with permafrost as
experienced at Prudhoe Bay and the effect on protective ground
relaying would also be undertaken.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••• $150,800
(e) Schedule
Weeks 20 through 120
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A5-233
Subtask 8.03-Transmission Line-Route Selection 1981
(a) Objective
To identify two selected routes, each about half a mile wide, one
from the project sites to Anchorage and the other to Fairbanks.
(b) Approach
The alternative corridors carried forward from Task 8.01 will be
subjected to a further process of elimination and a final route
selected. Input to this task will be obtained from the following:
-Preliminary environmental studies (Task 2) including aesthetic
considerations
-Land use studies (Task 7)
-Mapping of key sections (Task 2)
-Climatological studies (Task 3)
-Identification of seismic problems (Task 4)
-Geotechnical exploration (Task 5)
-Geotechnical footing design (Task 6)
The possible advantages to be obtained from a staged construction
sequence will be evaluated. If appropriate, separate routes for
future stages will be identified. The result of this study will be
the selection of a complete route, approximately one-half mile wide.
(c) Discussion
In arriving at the final route selection, the following potential
design difficulties peculiar to cold climates will be taken into
account.
Damage to footings due to frost heave and muskeg conditions. It is
known that such problems have been encountered on other transmission
lines, specifically on the 230-kV lines between Twin Falls and
Labrador City. In designing the 735-kV Churchill Falls lines, Acres
successfully overcome these problems by the choicP. of guyed towers
and the careful selection of routes and anchor details.
The possible effect of permafrost conditions on route selection will
also be taken into account.
The possible need to contend with extremely high wind velocities such
as those encountered at Snettisham will also be reviewed. Such winds
cannot normally be accommodated in the design of the transmission
line and/or problem can be overcome by rerouting and stockpiling of a
number of spare towers.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task For.ce (Acres), •••••••••••••••••• $206,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 60 through 120
AS-234
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Subtask 8.04 -Tower, Hardware and Conductor Studies
(a) Objective
To select the most appropriate tower configuration, hardware and
conductor arrangements for the line.
(b) Approach
A5 ... 235
The existing data contained in previous studies, particularly the 1979
IECO report, will be taken into account in developing the following.
(1) Design Criteria
We will establish basic design requirements using the data from
field studies and system studies. These include climatologic
(Task 3), geotechnical (Task 6) and electrical parameters
( Subtask 8. 02) •
(2) Towers
We will establish security levels and other line performance
levels and select overload factors for various loading
conditions. Nonclimatological load parameters i.e., broken wire,
construction loads etc., will also be determined.
We wi 11 conduct a study of tower-types this wi 11 involve a
preliminary review of the different types and construction
materials available and the associated transportation
requirements. The types considered would include rigid and guyed
towers and wood-pole H-frames. The geometry of tower outlines
based on electrical clearances will be developed. Based on this
study, a representative range of tower types will be determined.
In the event that a staged construction sequence is found to be
desirable, the relative economics of double-circuit towers versus
two single-circuit towers will be assessed.
Tower loads will be established. Those include average span,
wind span, weight span, broken wire and stringing and maintenance
requirements.
(3) Footings
Design criteria will be determined from the results of
geotechnical field investigations. We would undertake conceptual
designs of alternative types of footing for the family of tower
types selected.
(4) Miscellaneous System Features
The conductor would be selected taking into account electrical
requirements and those of mechanical strength, together with an
evaluation of the losses.
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AS-236
The environmental effect of audible conductor noise and RIV and
TIV will also be assessed.
The basic insulation level (BIL) will be established and the
type, number and configuration of insulators selected.
In the event that wood-pole construction might be selected, the
possible economy of eliminating the overhead ground will also be
considered.
Line hardware, the choice of arrangement for suspension, dead end
and jumper assemblies will be selected. Grounding requirements
will be determined and suitable arrangements for line and towers
developed.
(c) Discussion
Acres has extensive experience in transmission line design for regions
with cold weather climates, deep frost penetration of the ground and
permafrost conditions. This will provide a solid base for developing
a sound design for the various elements of the transmission system.
Optimization of the design will be assisted by our 11 in-house 11 computer
program 11 TROP 11 which is a transmission optimization program. This
program is supplied with the basic design requirements as input data
and determines conductor sags, tensions, tower loads, voltage
gradients, losses including corona, for a series of alternative
situations involving variations in conductor type and size, span
length and climatological conditions. On the basis of conceptual cost
information, it is used in the evaluation and choice of the most
economical conductor size and the optimum average span for the line
analyzed.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 78,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 81 through 120
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Subtask 8.05 -Substations
(a) Obje.cti ve
To provide conceptual designs and cost estimates for the major
terminal subtstations at each end of the system, together with typical
designs for substations at the intermediate load points.
(b) Approach
From the Electrical Systems Studies (Subtask 8.02) parameters will be
obtained, which will be employed in finalizing station single-line
diagrams, equipment specifications and configurations, philosophy of
operation and control of the substations. Early decisions will be
made on whether to man the substations or depend on automatic
operation with supervisory control of switching equipment.
The chosen arrangement will be reviewed to ensure that it
with system, environmental and operational requirements.
equipment characteristics will be determined and sketches
produced to allow cost estimates to be prepared.
complies
Major
wi 11 be
Details of the substations and switchyards will be determined and will
include:
-single-line diagrams
-transformer capacity
-typical substation layouts and arrangements
-shunt reactiors (when required)
auxiliary station service
(c) Discussion
The layout of the substations will be coordinated with the
transmission line entry. For aesthetic, climatic and land management
reasons, gas-insulated substation layouts will be examined. Final
selection of gas-filled on conventionaly type will be made one the
location of the substations is determined.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••• $ 81,300
(e) Schedule
Weeks 65 through 120
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Subtask 8.06 -Dispatch Center and Communications
(a) Objective
AS-238
To produce a conceptual design and cost estimate for a computerized
control and dispatch center that will provide reliable and secure
operation of the proposed Susitna development and the Anchorage-
Fairbanks transmission link. Appropriate communications will also be
provided.
(b) Approach
The Susitna River Basin project will introduce considerable
hydroelectric generating capacity into a predominantly thermal-
electric generating system. It is also proposed to interconnect the
Fairbanks area with that of Anchorage, thus developing a larger power
system than the two existing at present. To make effective use of
facilities in the enlarged power pool, a dispatch center with reliable
communication system will be required. The studies described below
will be undertaken during the feasibility stage.
-Review and previous studies related to system control and
communications in the Railbelt area
-Collect data on existing communications and system control practised
by the Rail belt utilities
-Meet with APA, the Alaska Power Administration and the utilities to
discuss future or committed plans with respect to control centers or
communication systems
-Propose a range of alternatives to achieve the goal of providing
effective control of the power pool. The cost of these alternatives
will be estimated and compared in a report
-Various degrees of sophistication will be examined and schedules and
estimated costs for introduction will be prepared
-The question of which agency will have overall operating
responsibility will be addressed
- A preferred system will be selected and conceptual designs and cost
estimates prepared.
(c) Discussion
It is necessary to define overall responsibility at the beginning of
this phase of the work in order to establish the criteria for choosing
the most suitable scheme.
The dispatch center and a comprehensive communication system will
provide the following functions:
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A5-239
-Real time monitoring of system conditions with continuous update
Enhancement of system security, thus providing a reliable service
-Economic dispatch of generating facilities, both thermal and hydro
-Monitoring of transmission loads
-Economic dispatch of intertie power
-Provision of supervisory control for selected unattended
substations
In our opinion, considerable advantages can be derived if the Railbelt
power interconnection is operated with a centralized dispatch center
and the complementing communication channels.
Arrangements will be made to enlist the services of specialized
consultants such as "Energy and Control Consultants" from California
to assist Acres and review this section of the preliminary report.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••
External Consultants ••••••••••••••••••
$ 79,000
20,000
Total Subtask 8.06 •••••••••••••••••••• $ 99,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 65 through 120
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Subtask 8.07-Transmission Line Cost Estimates
(a) 0 bj ect i ve
To arrive at a feasibility estimate type of cost of the transmission
system.
(b) Approach
Utilizing Acres experience in northern construction logistics, a
capital cost estimate will be prepared for the construction of the
lines. Special care will be taken to fully reflect the need to
respect strict controls on construction activities, to control
environmental impacts and carry out a mitigation program during and
following the completion of construction.
(c) Discussion
Costs of the procurement of material and their shipment to site will
be carefully evaluated by investigations and supplemented by enquiries
of competent suppliers.
Acres estimates of costs for construction will be refined by the
involvement of experience contractors who will be asked to provide
input regarding construction logistics and schedule.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 30,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 20 through 120
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.A.5.10-TASK 9: CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATES AND SCHEDULES
(i) Task Objectives
AS-241
To develop comprehensive, contractor-type, construction cost
estimates for each major element of the recommended Susitna Hydro-
electric Project, detailed engineering and construction schedules
and an associated analysis of potential contingency constraints and
impacts.
(ii) Task Output
The primary outputs of Task 9 will ultimately be cost estimate
summary reports and construction schedules appropriate for inclusion
in Task 10, FERC Licensing documentation. The final versions of
these documents will be submitted for review and approval by Alaska
Power Authority on or about Week 126 of the Study. These documents
will be suitable for continuous updating and/or modifications during
the subsequent study period through commencement of construction and
for use in preparation of Engineer•s estimates during the construc-
tion and equipment supply contract bidding phases of the project.
Preliminary cost estimates and schedules will also be the subject of
design transmittals issued on or about Week 60 of the Study for
inclusion in the Development Selection Report under Task 6.
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 9.01 -Assemble Cost and Schedule Data
Subtask 9.02 -Prepare Preliminary Cost Estimates
Subtask 9.03 -Prepare Cost Estimate Update
Subtask 9.04 -Develop Engineering/Construction Schedule
Subtask 9.05 -Perform Contingency Analysis
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
The primary purpose of Task 9 is to provide the basis for more
detailed planning, marketing and financing of the Susitna Project
during the period fo 11 O\'li ng submission of the FERC License App 1 i ca-
tion through commencement of construction. The development of these
estimates and schedules prior to license submission and the rela-
tionships between Task 9 and other task -activities are illustrated
in the Master Schedules, Plates A7.1 and A7.2. This portion of the
study will essentially be divided into two parts. The initial part
of Task 9 activities will be used to establish the information
systems and basic mechanisms necessary to develop the cost estimates
and schedules for selection of the optimum Susitna development. The
second part of Task 9 activities will essentially be devoted to the
incorporation of more up-to-date information and approprite
revisions of the estimates and schedules prior to submission of the
FERC License Application. For ongoing cost estimating and
scheduling purposes, a continuous exchange of information will be
necessary with Task 2 -Surveys, Task 5 -Geotechnical
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Exploration, Task 6 -Design Development, Task 7 -Environmental
Studies and Task 8 -Transmission activities.
For purposes of the current Plan of Study, development of Task 9
activities has been based on the assumption that the optimum Susitna
development will comprise dams at Watana and Devil Canyon and
associated structures. This development is essentially the same as
that recommended by the Corps of Engineers in its 1979 Supplemental
Feasibility Report.
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Subtask 9.01 -Assemble Cost and Schedule Data
(a) Objective
AS-243
Assemble Alaska-based and national cost and schedule data appropriate
to construction of large hydroelectric projects.
(b) Approach
Input to the activities of Subtask 9.02 will commence with the
following preliminaries:
-Identify required project labor, material, and equipment (construc-
tion and permanent) categories
-Assemble cost and scheduling data including Alaskan and national
labor, materials and equipment (construction and permanent), taxes,
insurance, finance charges, other indirect costs, and delivery
items
-Identify and assemble facility operating costs
On the basis of parallel Task 6 design development studies, appropri-
ate construction activities will be identified together with construc-
tion method plans and diagrams for temporary site installations.
(c) Discussion
Earlier studies related to alternatives and development of an optimum
Susitna development will have been undertaken on the basis of concep-
tual engineering-type cost estimates. These estimates will essential-
ly be developed from previously published reports and available Corps
of Engineers or other source data. Establishment of reliable costs
and schedules for the recommended Susitna Development will however be
based on a much more basic approach.
A computerized data base will be established which will be made avail-
able for use and further development during all subsequent cost
estimating and scheduling activities.
{d) Level of Effort
Task Force (FMA) •••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
$10,000
10,000
Total Subtask 9.01 ••••••••••••••••••• $20,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 70 through 75
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Subtask 9.02 -Prepare Preliminary Cost Estimates
(a) Objective
AS-244
Prepare preliminary, construction-type construction cost estimates for
the Susitna Hydroelectric Project.
(b) Approach
Preliminary cost estimates will be prepared for:
-Site access arrangements
-Permanent camp facilities
-Watana Dam and associated works
-Devil Canyon Dam and associated works
-Transmission facilities
-Reservoirs and related facilities
These estimates will be based on reviews of previously published
reports of the Susitna development, appropriately modified and updated
in the light of such reviews. Lists of construction pay items and
quantity estimates will be prepared for appropriate construction
activities.
Unit and/or lump sum prices will be developed and assembled for
appropriate pay items, including all direct and indirect costs, and
total facility investment and operating cost estimates.
(c) Discussion
The results of this activity will provide the input into ongoing
Task 6 -Design Development activities. Although these data may be
subject to modification during later stages of the study when further
drilling and testing information becomes available, the groundwork
laid at this time will form the basis of all further costing activi-
ties to be performed.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (FMA) •••••••••w••••••••••• $ 2,000
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• 20,000
Total Subtask 9.02 ••••••••••••••••••• $22,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 73 through 78
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Subtask 9.03 -Prepare Cost Estimate Update
(a) Objective
A5.,.245
Prepare updated, comprehensive, construction~type, construction cost
estimates for the Susitna Project for inclusion in FERC License
Application.
(b) Approach
Preliminary cost estimates prepared-under Subtask 9.02 will be updated
and modified for incorporation in the FERC License Application docu-
ments.
Construction methods, scheduling and cost studies already performed
under Task 6 studies will be further developed and expanded under this
subtask. The accuracy of construction costs will be improved by
application of updated information, including:
(1) Site costs for labor, materials, equipment and fuel
(2) Installation procedures to be adopted for each project component;
construction methodology for the dams, spillways and power
plants
(3) Detailed construction schedule and resource allocation for each
project component and the total project
(4) Site development requirements for power, access, transport,
construction materials, water, and support facilities
(5) Technical and economic analysis for concrete manufacture,
borrowed fill, quarries and disposal of excavated materials
(6) Construction manpower schedules
(7) Mechanical and electrical equipment price variation due to
escalation and market pressures
(8) Short and long-term interest rates and cost escalation assess-
ments
(9) Detailed list of pay items and quantity take-offs
(10) Detailed construction cost estimates, including unit prices,
directs, indirects, contingencies, interest during construction
and administration, cash flow diagram
Project engineering designs and preliminary equipment specifications
prepared under ongoing Task 6 activities will serve as the baseline
for each cost estimate. A standard estimating format will be adopted
and sound accounting practices will be followed to separate direct
costs, indirect costs and capital expenses. All costs will be tabula-
ted into natural division that lend themselves to the application of
the FERC code of accounts for hydropower projects.
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AS-246
Detailed quantity take-offs will be prepared from the project
engineering drawings to support permanent material cost estimates.
Consumable materials will be estimated using known rules-of-thumb and
accepted unit rates. ·
Updated labor estimates will be prepared in conjunction with the
scheduling effort. Typical project labor agreements will serve as a
basis for these revised estimating costs. Rates of productivity, as
dictated by the schedule and tempered by the Alaskan climate and work
force, will be established for each type of work.
More realistic plant and equipment costs will be estimated using
actual experience gained from similar work performed in Alaskan
environments.
Indirect costs will be estimated based upon a number of factors,
including total construction time, numbers of craft labor, length of
shifts, volume of subcontracted work, etc. Finally, a cost escalation
factor will be applied to each cost estimate to account for increases
in labor and material costs throughout the life of the project.
(c) Discussion
The estimated cost of construction will be a key factor in establ'ish-
ing feasibility and licensing as well as financing of the project.
Estimating construction costs in Alaska presents some unique factors
and situations that can only be dealt with through practical experi-
ence at the field level. The Acres/Moolin team provides senior
individuals with a wealth of experience of large hydroelectric
developments in cold climate regions and with specific Alaskan
construction experience. Input and review of all cost estimates by
these personnel will ensure the reliability of the estimates.
Some of the unique problems that must be accounted for include:
- A relatively inexperienced labor force
-Unusual environmental/weather constraints
-High level of government surveillance/interaction
-Low equipment productivity during cold weather
-High freight costs for materials/spare parts
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (FMA) •••••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
Total Subtask 9.03
(e) Schedule
...................
Weeks 110 through 126
$16,000
53,000
$69,000
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Subtask 9.04 -Develop Engineering/Construction Schedule
(a) Objective
Develop integrated engineering, construction and equipment i nsta 11 a-
tion network logic diagrams and bar chart schedules, optimize resource
allocations, and perform analyses to identify probable critical path
for construction of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project.
(b) Approach
The engineering, construction and equipment installation network will
be established and updated on the basis of parallel Task 6 design
development studies. A consolidated construction schedule \vill also
be prepared to identify major construction activities and their
required start and finish dates in bar chart format. Determination of
the critical path will be accomplished by means of an appropriate
computerized mathematical model which wi 11 faci 1 it ate 1 ater updating
requirements. The proposed model will be that described in Part C3 of
this proposal, or similar.
The critical path analysis will show duration, early start date, late
start date, early and late finish dates, float and zero float critical
path for all major activities.
Preliminary scedules will initially be prepared as input to the Task 6
Development Selection Report and subsequently further developed and
modified for inclusion in FERC licensing documents under Task 10.
As discussed in Section A6, it is proposed that prior to commencement
of construction of the Susitna Project a Program Planning Guide will
be prepared. This guide will identify for Alaska Power Authority
management the specific planning requirements for the project. It
will also provide, for the eventual project management group, those
products essential to the planning and management of the development.
(c) Discussion
The basic ground work for the key elements of the Project Planning
Guide will be performed under this subtask. Senior level personnel
from the Acres/Moolin team will initiate the development of the
specific elements that will be required for planning and management of
the project. Experience gained on other 11 giant 11 projects such as the
Churchill Falls Development, and the prepration of similar planning
guides (Maclin has recently completed the Project Planning Guide for
the Alaska Gasline) will serve as a basis for the task.
It is apparent in the industry that sponsors of giant projects are
beginning to recognize the importance of first developing a program
planning guide for the management of these projects. We feel this
type of planning can best be done by a relatively small number of
senior level, highly qualified individuals. This small group of
personnel, selected because of their first-hand experience in managing
and planning other projects, is in the best position to understand and
convey the problems associated with giant projects.
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AS-248
As the size of the project increases, especially those in remote areas
where a greater dependence upon outside support is required, so does
the number and complexity of the interfaces between the various
elements of the project. It will be up to the planning team to
concisely and completely define the additional level of input required
for successful advancement of the project.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $35,000
Task Force (FMA) ••••••••••••••••••••• 20,000
Total Subtask 9.04 ••••••••••••••••••• $55,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 73 to 126
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Subtask 9.05 -Perform Contingency Analysis
(a) Objective
Investigate potential contingencies/risks and to evaluate their
effects upon cost estimates and schedules.
(b) Approach
A5-249
A preliminary assessment will be made for each aspect of the cost
estimate and construction schedule to examine potential risks involved
in terms of cost escalation and/or schedule slippage. Sources of risk
will be considered both individually and collectively~ and their
potential impacts determined. From the results of the risk analysis
optins~ fall back position and contingency plans will be developed.
The results of this study will provide input to risk analyses to be
performed under Task 11.
(c) Discussion
There are a number of contingencies that can have adverse effects upon
the project~ each of which must be analyzed. They include the
following:
-The selected thin arch or other design for the Devil Canyon Dam may
not stand up to further seismic testing. This may require a change
in design~ thus requiring new cost and schedule estimates.
-Unforeseen foundatcn problems (unstable bedrock~ permafrost~ etc.)
discovered during the POS and/or initial construction phases may
lead to a requirement for deeper excavation or extensive confined
excavation procedures.
-Unexpected flooding conditions~ due to the size of the watershed
involved~ can have a significant impact upon costs.
-Unusually restrictive environmental conditions imposed by govern-
mental agencies can have significant impacts. Large projects in
Alaska have a history of attracting an unusually high involvement by
the agencies that cannot be ignored.
-Unforeseen inclement weather may reduce the already short Alaskan
construction season and force scheduled events into unfavorable
weather conditions. Also~ poor weather may require the use of
special heated enclosures to allow the work to progress.
-Unexpected river icing conditions may require changes in design and/
or construct in of unplanned structures to contend with winter ice
forces and spring breakup conditions.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $13,000
Task Force (FMA) ••••••••••••••••••••• 6,000
Total Subtask 9.05 ••••••••••••••••••• $19,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 115 through 126
A5-250
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A5-251
A.5.11 -TASK 10: LICENSING
(i) Task Objectives
To provide for timely preparation and assembly of all documentation
necessary for application for license to the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission (FERC).
(ii) Task Output
The output from this task will be a completed application for
1 icensing the Susitna Hydroelectric Project. This completed
package, including exhibits A through W (less P and Q, which are not
required for licensing a major hydroelectric project) will be
prepared for final review by external review panels and by APA on or
before the end of the 128th week of the study period, with earlier
preliminary design transmittals having been assembled and reviewed
in-house and by APA upon substantial completion of significant
individual exhibits.
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 10.01 -Impact of New FERC Regulations
Subtask 10.02 -Establish Regulatory Requirements
Subtask 10.03 -Data Acquisition from Others
Subtask 10.04 -Coordinate Exhibit Preparation within Major Task
Categories
Subtask 10.05 -Prepare Exhibits D and E
Subtask 10.06 -Prepare Exhibit R
Subtask 10.07 -Prepare Exhibit T
Subtask 10.08-Prepare Application Form
Subtask 10.09 -Documentation Review and Deficiency Correction
Subtask 10.10-External Review, Client Execution, and Filing
{iv) Subtask Scope Statements
Assuming that technical and economic feasibility are found and that
environmental impacts and proposed mitigatory actions are
acceptable, the major target toward which all other work is aimed is
the successful completion of a license application to FERC. Indeed,
this entire Plan of Study has been prepared in such a manner that
only those tasks and subtasks considered to be the minimum· necessary
for acceptance by FERC of the license application are included in
the first 30 months. To be sure, a significant amount of follow-on
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work must necessarily be accomplished prior to eventual construc-
tion, but the historically lengthy periods associated with federal
processing of applications clearly suggest that the earliest
possible submission is in the best interest of the Power Authority.
This latter observation was confirmed, during preparation of this
Plan of Study, by Mr. Ron Corso, FERC, whose comments on the matter
are summarized in Annex A to Task 10. Briefly stated, Mr. Corso
assures us that it is entirely appropriate--even advisable--to file
an application which meets minimum requirements for submission while
at the same time detailing plans for initiation or continuation of
studies whose results may be required before the license itself is
actually awarded. It will be noted in Annex A that new regulations
will probably change the letter designation of various exhibits and
will combine many into single packages. For purposes of clarity in
succeeding subtasks, we have chosen to refer to the production of
exhibits in terms of the titles which currently officially apply.
There is a complication associated with the preparation of this task
package. The current applicable FERC regulations are now under
revision, and there is .little doubt that they will be in force prior
to that time we have proposed for filing. The most likely form of
the new rules, we are given to understand, will be essentially the
same as is now required, but there will be some effort made to
streamline and expedite processing as well as simplify procedures.
Aside from Subtask 10.01, all remaining subtasks have been prepared
to conform to the regulations as they now stand. Subtask 10.01
itself provides for review, assessment, and, if necessary,
adjustments associated with new regulations if and when they become
effective. Subtask 10.02 establishes a complete listing, together
with actions and responsible project personnel for compliance with
all regulatory requirements, including, if appropriate, any new
regulations which become effective during the course of the study.
The basic application must be made in accordance with a prescribed
format and must be accompanied by a series of exhibits, each of
which must meet certain criteria as detailed in the regulations.
Table 1, Task 10, summarizes exhibit content and shows those points
at which the output from other Tasks contributes to preparation or
actually furnishes individual exhibits. The last column of that
table summarizes certain work to be accomplished in Task 10. It
will be noted that the exhibits may be generally broken down into
three categories:
(1) Those exhibits which must be acquired from sources external to
the Acres• team. State laws, for example, fall in that
category. Subtask 10.03 provides for data acquisition from
others.
(2) Those exhibits which will be outputs from other tasks, prepared
by various members within the Acres' team. Subtask 10.04
accounts for monitoring and coordinating this type of exhibit.
(3) Those exhibits and the application form itself which must be
prepared based upon data produced in other tasks or developed
from other sources. Subtasks 10.05 through 10.08 cover
necessary activities.
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A5-253
Subtasks 10.09 and 10.10 account for the often arduous and
frequently time-consuming process of essential review, both in-house
and by external panels, as well as final execution and filing.
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Subtask 10.01 -Impact of New FERC Regulations
(a) Objective
AS-254
Review draft and final versions of new FERC regulations to be issued in
the near future; prepare revisions to subtask work statements as appro-
priate; and assess cost and schedule impacts for consideration by the
Power Authority.
(b) Approach
Immediately upon publication of proposed new regulations, a careful
review will be conducted to identify changes which must apparently be
addressed. Comments wi 11 be prepared, if appropriate, to ensure that
any apparent ambiguities are resolved and to recommend changes, partic-
ularly insofar as they might favorably and reasonably facilitate
compliance. A comprehensive list of actions will be drawn up and
responsibilities for implementation within the Acres• team will be
assigned to appropriate project personnel by name. Subtask work state-
ments will be revised as necessary. To the extent that changes--
increases or decreases--in estimated costs and schedules appear necess-
ary, a report will be made to the Power Authority, along with recom-
mendations as to how best to proceed. Once proposed regulations have
been through the review process and are published as final, any neces-
sary further iterations of the above activities will be accomplished.
(c) Discussion
As a matter of policy, we continuously monitor activities of the FERC,
for there is much to be learned from the experience of Acres and others
in recent past and ongoing application processing. A necessary part
and parcel of this monitoring effort is, of course, associated with
development of regulatory changes and of new or innovative interpre-
tations and decisions on existing ones. Thus do we know with certainty
that new proposed regulations are imminent. Indeed, we have already
received some initial advice from Mr. Ronald Corso, Deputy Chief,
Division of Licensed Projects, FERC (see Annex A to Task 10). We have
been led to believe that no major substantive changes for major
hydroelectric projects are likely, and we therefore have some
confidence that the remaining subtasks in this major Task are valid.
Even so, it is prudent to provide for comprehensive review of any
change, for even a variation of one tenth of one percent on a
multibillion dollar project can produce millions of dollars worth of
new requirements. The matter of preparing action lists and designating
responsible individuals is one we regard as essential to the management
of all phases of this giant project. It is fully in keeping with our
earlier announced intent to accomplish all those things which are
necessary for successful filing and to provide for initiation or
continuan-ce subsequent to filing for all those additional activities
required for actual award of a license and, beyond that, for eventual
project construction.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••.•.•••••..•••••••.••••••...••••. $9,000
Liaison and Coordination by APA (included under Subtask 13) ••••• ___ --___ _
Total Subtask 10.01 •••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $9,000
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Upon publication of proposed draft regulations.
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Subtask 10.02 -Establish Regulatory Requirements
(a) Objective
A5-256
Identify all regulatory requirements to be satisfied as a condition for
licensing and provide for compliance.
(b) Approach
All statutes, rules, regulations, and other requirements directly or
indirectly affecting the process of investigating and subsequently
constructing the proposed project will be reviewed and a design
transmittal will be prepared setting forth the steps which will be
required for compliance. Specific action responsibilities will be
assigned to members of the Acres' team. Some of the federal statutes
having significant impact on the project--and therefore to be reviewed
under this subtask--include:
-Federal Water Power Act of 1920
-National Environmental Policy Act (P.L. 91-190)
-Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act (P.L. 85-624)
-Endangered Species Act (P.L. 930205)
-Historical Preservation Act (P.L. 89-665)
-Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 (P.L. 92-500)
-Anadramous Fish Act
-Wilderness Act (P.L. 88-577)
-Wild and Scenic Rivers Act (P.L. 90-542)
-Coastal Zone Management Act (P.L. 93-612)
-Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-579)
-Fuel Use Act of 1978
-Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971 (85 Stat. 706)
Rules, regulations, and procedures for permits are imposed as well
under the laws of the State of Alaska. Some of the Departments and
Agencies having direct responsibilities or significant interests within
the State include:
-Department of Fish and Game
-Department of Economic Development
-Department of Commerce
-Department of Natural Resources
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A5-257
-Department of Environmental Conservation
-Department of Community and Regional Affairs
-Department of Labor
-Alaska Growth Policy Council
-Alaska Historical Commission
-Capital Site Planning Commission
-Land Use Planning Commission of Alaska
-Department of Public Safety
-Department of Transportation and Public Facilities
In addition, requirements which may be imposed by municipalities and
boroughs (particularly insofar as transmission routes are concerned)
and by Native organizations who will eventually acquire title to lands
in and around the project area will be identified, analyzed; and plans
will be drawn up for compliance.
Services will be requested from the Alaska Department of Law for
assistance in identifying and interpreting applicable State and local
regulatory requirements. Estimated costs for the appropriate level of
effort are included in subparagraph (d) below. In the event that the
Department of Law cannot assist, an Alaskan law firm will be engaged
for consultation on these matters.
(c) Discussion
As may be noted from the incomplete listing of federal laws and state
and local interests above, there will be a decidedly complex web of
permits and procedures to be satisfied. It is all the more important,
then, to devote time and attention early in the study effort to ensure
compliance. Indeed, some of the various permitting procedures provide
opportunities for public notice and comment and, on occasion, for
public meetings or hearings. Time requirements tend to be lengthy in
such cases, and the process cannot begin until application is made.
Much of the effort involved in completion of this subtask will
contribute to the work involved in other subtasks. Subtask 10.05, for
example, provides for preparation of Exhibit D, wherein evidence of
compliance with State laws must be provided. It follows that
identification of appropriate laws and describing procedures for
compliance are important first steps as well as convenient check lists
for the provision of evidence of compliance.
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(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $25,000
Legal Consultation* from the Alaska
Department of Law and/or Alaskan law firm.. 10,000
Total Subtask 10.02 ••••••••••••••••••••••••• $35,000
(e) Schedule
AS-258
Weeks 3 through 12 and intermittently thereafter throughout the study
period.
*Legal consultation on applicable federal laws will be provided by Mr.
Charles McCarthy, Esq., a Director of Acres and a long-time
practitioner and expert before the former Federal Power Commission and
the current Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
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Subtask 10.03 -Data Acquisition from Others
(a) Objective
A5-259
Provide for coordinating the preparation and collection of data to be
provided by various parties external to the Acres• team and to assemble
those exhibits for which no other input is required from the Acres•
team.
{b) Approach
Exhibits A, B, and C generally require that certain copies and certifi-
cations be provided. In each case, these documents are available from,
or must be produced by, others. We will request the necessary items
and review them for adequacy insofar as FERC requirements are con-
cerned. In the event that deficiencies are noted, further efforts will
be undertaken to assure they are corrected. Once the necessary
documentation is received and found to be adequate, completed exhibits
will be assembled and made available for preliminary review. Subse-
quent reviews will occur under subtasks 10.10 and 10.11. For purposes
of task analysis, we assume that the actual license applicant will be
the State of Alaska. Certain specific items and sources are noted
below:
(1) For Exhibit A, copies of the laws under authority of which the
application is made.
(2) For Exhibit B, copies of all minutes, resolutions of directors of
the Power Authority, as well as any pertinent legislative proceed-
ings and executive decisions substantiating authority to file the
license application.
(3) For Exhibit C, copies of special hydroelectric, water power, or
irrigation laws of the State. Note that this information will
already have been assembled under Subtask 10.02, so that the only
additional requirement under this subtask is to review for com-
pleteness and assemble as an exhibit.
(c) Discussion
Although the level of effort associated with this subtask is minimal,
it has been included to ensure that every item required under FERC
regulations is included.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••• $1,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 12 through 16
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AS-260
Subtask 10.04 -Coordinate Exhibit Preparation within Major Task Categories
(a) ObJective
Ensure that outputs from various tasks are consistent with FERC
requirements pertaining to applicable exhibits.
(b) Approach
FERC regulations will be reviewed in detail to identify specific
products, along with their specifications, to be developed as outputs
from other tasks within this Plan of Study. Criteria will be prepared
and distributed to appropriate responsible individuals. Progress will
be monitored throughout the course of the work and design transmittals
will be reviewed in each case to ensure consistency with current--and
to the extent that changes occur, future--FERC regulations. Complete
exhibit packages will be prepared for Exhibits F through 0, S and
U through W. As noted in Table 1, Task 10, each of these products is a
required output from another task.
(c) Discussion
This subtask provides for positive controls to ensure that the work
produced in other tasks will, in fact, be available for use without
further modification (except, perhaps, for certain introductory
materials and tables of contents) as exhibits in the application
package. Certain very specific criteria for dimensions, degree of
detail, drawing content, and the like must be identified at the start
to avoid costly abortive efforts and/or redundant work.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••• $56,000
(e) Schedule
Throughout project period.
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A5-261
Subtask 10.05 -Prepare Exhibits D and E
(a)
(b)
Objective
Acquire and
and E.
Approach
Exhibits 0
on both is
evalute data incident to preparation and prepare exhibits 0
and E are sufficiently closely related that concurrent work
justified.
Exhibit D calls for evidence of compliance with requirements of the
laws of the State of Alaska with respect to bed and banks and to the
appropriation, diversion, and use of water for power purposes and with
respect to the right to engage in the business of developing,
transmitting, and distributing power, and in any other business,
necessary to effect the purposes of the license applied for, including
a certificate of convenience and necessity, if required. This evidence
shall be accompanied by a statement of the steps that have been taken
and the steps that remain to be taken to acquire franchise or other
rights from the State, boroughs, and municipalities before the project
can be completed and put into operation.
Exhibit E requires a description of the nature, extent, and ownership
of water rights in the development of the project, together with
satisfactory evidence that the applicant has proceeded as far as
practicable in perfecting its rights to use sufficient water for proper
operation of the project works. A certificate from the proper State
agency setting forth the extent and validity of the applicant•s water
rights shall be appended if practicable. In case the approval or
permission of one or more State agencies is required by State law as a
condition precedent to the applicant•s right to take or use the water
for the operation of the project works, duly certified evidence of such
approval or permission, or a showing of cause why such evidence cannot
be reasonably submitted shall also be filed. When a State certificate
is involved, one certified copy and the required additional uncertified
copies shall be submitted.
It will be recalled that Subtask 10.02 seeks to identify applicatory
laws and regulations as well as to plan a program for compliance. In
this subtask, we will monitor the compliance program to ensure that it
is being fulfilled. A report will be prepared setting forth the steps
taken to the point of application as. well as a description of further
programs leading to eventual total compliance. Although application
for license filed by the State implies that State law has itself been
. complied with, we will nonetheless take suitable measures to make known
our compliance efforts. Thus will Exhibit D be prepared.
We will seek the assistance of the Alaska Department of Natural
Resources in providing a definitive certificate of the extent and
validity of the State•s water rights. In the event that water use
conflicts are discerned (and they very well may be, for current
authorities to reserve water for various uses are complicated or
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A5-262
vague where they exist at all) they will be documented and evaluated.
A report detailing the results of our own research on the water rights
issue together with appropriate certification by the Department of
Natural Resources will become Exhibit E.
We intend to provide draft copies of proposed Exhibits D and E to
various State agencies under whose auspices regulatory and legal
requirements are monitored or enforced. The earliest coordination of
these items will contribute significantly to our ability to fairly
represent our efforts to ensure understanding and compliance.
(c) Discussion
It is important to note that the issues of compliance with state law,
and particularly of water rights, will be addressed in various public
meetings, for it is in those forums that public perceptions of
potential conflict are most 1 ikely to surface. In addition, workshops
to be conducted under the public participation program (Task 12) are
designed to seek involvement of interested and affected State agencies
while the work goes on rather than present them with a fait accompli at
the end of the 30-month study effort.
Late in the development of this Plan of Study, we received a letter and
a proposal from the Alaska Department of Natural Resources (DNR)
suggesting their participation in the assessment of instream flow
requirements and noting DNR 1 s ongoing efforts toward resolution of
water use conflicts in Alaska. We had earlier anticipated the need to
undertake the hydrologic work suggested therein and have generally
accounted for it in various subtasks within Task 3, Hydrology. Even
so, we will review the manner in which our own scheduled data collec-
tion efforts compare with DNR•s in terms of both technical adequacy and
estimated costs. Should that review demonstrate clear advantage to the
State by following the DNR program, we are prepared to do so. In this
latter event, we would seek an arrangement whereby DNR is engaged
directly by the Power Authority to avoid any conflicts of interest and
to ensure as well that water use and compliance certification at a
later point is shown to be objective and legally sufficient.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••• $27,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 12 through 24 and 100 through 116.
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Subtask 10.06 -Prepare Exhibit R
(a) Objective
Acquire and evaluate data incident to preparation and prepare Exhibit R
-Recreation.
(b) Approach
We will seek to determine the interests and desires of the public inso-
far as recreation is concerned through the public participation pro-
gram. The particular views of owners and residents who may be affected
will be sought. Certainly, for example, Native organizations whose
lands lie within or adjacent to project boundaries and residents within
the river basin--particularly downstream--are especially important.
We will consult with the Department of Interior, the Power Authority
and interested State Agencies on a continuing basis, and particularly
during the eight scheduled workshops described in Task 12, Public
Participation •
Three alternative concepts will be drawn up, one of which considers
strictly controlled access and purposeful avoidance of man-made
recreational features. These concepts will be available for review by
the end of the 11th month so that .they can be presented at the second
public meeting to be held early in 1981. Environmental impacts will be
evaluated as a portion of the work to be accompli shed under Task 8 -
Environmental Studies.
That alternative which appears to best satisfy the public interest,
after a careful evaluation of all factors, will be presented for
consideration at a workshop in May 1981. Modifications will be made as
appropriate and a revised recommended concept will be presented at a
workshop in September '81. A final conceptual recreational plan will
then be developed in the detail required by FERC regulation for prepar-
ation of Exhibit R.
(c) Discussion
It will be noted that environmental studies conducted during Task 7
provide for the development of a rigorous final recreation plan during
the post-license application phase. The conceptual plan prepared under
this subtask will provide a basis for proceeding with that work.
Should significant changes to the original concept be indicated,
supplementary reports will be provided to FERC as the final plan
emerges.
It is extremely unlikely that total concensus will be achieved on any
single recreational concept. Indeed, it is probable that the spectrum
of desires will range from no recreational development and strictly
cantrall ed access to a Disneyland North. It follows that the
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AS-264
evaluation and selection process for a single recommended plan should
be understandable and should, insofar as is possible, best balance
environmental concerns, desired developments, and economic factors. In
any case, we do not intend to assign a specific value to recreation in
order to boost what might otherwise be an economically unjustifiable
project into a seemingly attractive marginal development. Indeed,
where private financing is sought, it will be achieved or denied on the
basis of power benefits alone.
Consultation with various federal agencies will also be required in
view of current federal interests in all project lands and expected
continued federal interest in portions of the project area, including
certain access routes and transmission routes.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••• $95,000
(e) Schedule
Throughout project period.
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AS-265
continued federal interest in portions of the project area, including
certain access routes and transmission routes.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••.••• $95,000
(e) Schedule
Throughout project period.
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Subtask 10.07 -Prepare Exhibit T
(a) Objective
AS-266
Acquire and evaluate data incident to preparation and prepare Exhibit
T--Statement of Reasons for Non-Federal Development.
(b) Approach
The reasons why development of the project by the State of Alaska
rather than by the Federal Government is in the public interest will,
of course, have been debated at length within the State prior to the
decision to select a consultant to undertake the proposed work. We
will review the minutes and transcripts of those meetings and sessions
which led to that decision with a view toward expressing the reasoning
in a formal report. Any additional light which may be shed on the
matter as a result of public participation will be included as well.
We will also seek the views of the Chief of Engineers, U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers, since federal development would be accomplished by the
Corps of Engineers if the State chooses not to use a consultant to
accomplish the work.
After a selected development plan has been developed, cost estimates
and schedules have been prepared, financial planning and risk analysis
have been essentially completed, and environmental impacts assessed, we
will attempt to discern differences--both positive and negative--which
deserve to be addressed in Exhibit T. A final report to serve as
Exhibit Twill be prepared upon completion of the last public meeting
in April 1982.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• $25,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 12, 122 through 125, with intermittent activities at
other times.
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Subtask 10.8 -Prepare Application Form
(a) Objective
Prepare application in prescribed format.
(b) Approach
The prescribed format for license application requires brief summaries
of data which is contained in detail in the exhibits. We will prepare
this document in draft form upon substantial completion of the various
exhibits. An initial legal review will be accomplished at this time.
(c) Discussion
Although this task becomes relatively simple once all exhibits have
been prepared, it is nonetheless extremely important, for the summary
application form will be far more widely read than the detailed
documentation which accompanies it.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••••••• $5,000
(e) Schedule
Week 126
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AS-268
Subtask 10.09 -Documentation Review and Deficiency Correction
(a) Objective
Provide for final in-house review of draft license application.
(b) Approach
Whereas continuous reviews will have been conducted throughout the
study period as individual subtasks are completed and various design
transmittals and draft exhibits are offered for comment, we propose to
conduct an exhaustive in-house review of the recommended final license
application. A full two weeks will be set aside for this purpose and
our designated in-house review panel will individually r'eview and
collectively meet to consider the proposed final draft application.
Deficiencies will be corrected wherever they are found to occur. After
the first week of the two week review period, copies will be made
available for final review by the expert external boards established
for the purpose. That effort is covered under Subtask 10.10.
(c) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• $35,000
(d) Schedule
Weeks 127 and 128.
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A5-269
Subtask 10.10 -External Review and Client Execution
(a) Objective
Provide for final review by external boards and for final production of
application ready for filing.
(b) Approach
External board members will be provided final draft copies of the
proposed application three weeks before targeted completion date.
Reviews will be conducted individually for approximately one week, and
the boards will convene during a second week to permit discussion of
concerns, if any. Members of the Acres' team will be made available as
necessary upon request to answer questions. To the extent that
correctable deficiencies are discovered at any time during the review
period, immediate action will be taken to alleviate the problem. For
that purpose, a representative from the Acres' team wi 11 be made
available to the board for liaison and review throughout the two-week
review period.
The final week of the study period will be devoted to final correction,
production, and delivery of the application for execution and filing by
the State.
(c) Discussion
The proposed careful review will serve several purposes. Firstly, it
is clearly important on a project of such magnitude to avail oneself of
the best available opinion as to the adequacy of the work. Secondly,
the collective efforts of eminent review groups may serve to reduce the
challenges or interventions which may be made during the license
processing period. Certainly, members of the external board may also
be called as expert witnesses during later periods. Thirdly, the vital
confidence of potential investors will surely be bolstered by the
thoughtful deliberations of such an august body.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Review Panels) •••••••••••••••••••••• $50,000
Liaison, coordination, correction (Acres)....... 5,000
Total Subtask 10.10
(e) Schedule
Weeks 128 through 130
$55,000
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ANNEX A TO TASK 10
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
NOTES ON MEETING
At Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, Washington, D.C.
August 3, 1979
PRESENT:
AS-270
P5477 .15
Mr. Ronald A. Corso, Deputy Chief, Division of Licensed Projects, FERC
Dr. E. L. Baum, Vice President, Acres
Mr. J. D. Lawrence, Project Manager, Acres
The meeting was held at the request of Messrs. Baum and Lawrence to discuss
the proposed amendments to Feder a 1 regulations for 1 i censi ng "major"
projects (greater than 1.5 MW) at previously undeveloped sites.
Mr. Corso indicated that the new regulations were scheduled for issue in
draft fonn in 1 ate August, but made the following comments and suggestions
for consideration as guidelines in the preparation of an FERC license
application:
(1) The format of the revised regulations would be similar to those issued
for major projects at existing dams (Docket No. RM79-36: see summary
of revised regulations, Attachment A)
(2) The emphasis in the new regulations will be on simplification of
documentation to the greatest extent possible and the earliest
possible involvement of FERC and other concerned regulatory agencies
in resolving the issues which may be raised.
(3) The attachment dealing with "Need for Power", which will deal with
load forecasting, the economic role of the project in the system, and
alternatives, will be vital. This section will be critically reviewed
by FERC and should therefore be as complete as possible when the
application is submitted.
(4) The attachment dealing with geotechnical information should provide
summary results of all exploratory work undertaken for conceptual
designs, sufficient to demonstrate the technical and economic
feasibility of the project. This infonnation need not necessarily be
exhaustive at the time of submission of the application: it is
recognized that additional geotechnical exploration will usually be
required prior to commencement of construction. Such information
should be provided as and when requested by FERC during processing of
the application.
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(5) Exhibit D should essentially be a one or two page summary only. More
detailed summaries in the FERC accounts format should be provided as
an attachment: it is recognized that these estimates will be updated
as additional information and designs are developed. Such updated
estimates should be submitted as and when requested by FERC during
processing of the application.
(6) The attachment dealing with flood analysis and routing, and structural
stability analyses (including comprehensive treatment of seismic/
earthquake considerations) must accompany the application and should
demonstrate the safety of the project.
(7) Exhibit E will now encompass the original Exhibits H, I, R, S, V and
W. It should essentially be a brief summary report, accompanied by
the necessary detailed attachments to provide the requisite data for
preparation of an EIS. It is recognized that this information may not
be exhaustive when the application is submitted. The attachment
should provide evidence that the environmental issues have been iden-
tified, that adequate action is being taken to· establish base-line
conditions, that preliminary assessments have been made and possible
methods of mitigation explored within the constraints of the available
data, and that approved plans for continued monitoring of base-line
conditions and processing of data have been instituted. This evidence
should include copies of correspondence with all concerned federal,
state, and local agencies and individuals affected by the project, and
copies of approved plans. Additional information obtained as a result
of ongoing studies should be submitted as and when requested by FERC
during processing of the application and preparation of the EIS.
(8) Design drawings for inclusion in the license application need only be
conceptual. Final bid drawings and specifications for project con-
struction should be submitted prior to commencement of construction,
as and when required by the FERC.
(9) Specific issues pertinent to the Susitna Project license application,
which will require attention are:
(a) The problem of thermal stratification of the reservoir will
probably require thermal modelling (after submission of applica-
tion) and designs for multi-level intakes.
(b) Hydraulic modelling of spillways and potential erosion problems
will probably be required (after submission of application).
(c) There may be advantages in addressing the licensability of the
transmission line intertie separately from the hydroelectric
project. This might avoid the possibility of problems arising in
one area of concern causing unnecessary delays in the other.
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A5-272
(d) FERC will evaluate the project on the basis of power benefits
alone. Evaluations of multi-use benefits are probably suspect
and difficult to rationalize.
(e) If ADF&G were to enter into a contractual relationship with
Acres for performance of certain portions of the environmental
work, they would be precluded by FERC as potential intervenors
for any issues arising from that work. It would therefore not be
in the interests of ADF&G to enter into such relationships.
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ATTACHMENT A
REVISED FERC REGULATIONS FOR
LICENSES FOR MAJOR PROJECTS
New Regulations Old Regulations
Exhibit Content Covered by Exhibits Shown
Initial Statement
A Project Description
B Resource Utilization Statement
c Construction Schedule
D Costs & Financing Summaries
E Environmental Report
F Design Drawings
G Project Map
Attachments: -Demonstration of Need for Power
-Geotechnical Information
-Detailed Cost Estimates
A,B,C,D,E,F
M
H,I,T,U
0
G, N
H,I,R,S,V,W
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-Spillway Flood and Structural Stability Analyses
-Detailed Environmental Report
A5-273
Exhibit
A
B
c
D
E
F
G
H
TABLE 1 -TASK 10
FERC LICENSE APPLICATION: EXHIBITS
Primary Contributions
Description From Task Numbers
Charter or certificate and
article of incorporation of
applicant.
Certified copy of resolutions of
stockholders and/or directors
authorizing application.
Copies of State laws pertaining
to construction of the project.
Evidence of applicant's com-
pliance with requirements of State
laws pertaining to use of lands
and water for the project.
Ownership, extent and nature of water
rights applicant will use and evi-
dence of applicant's plans for
perfecting its rights to use the
water for operation of the works.
Statement of land ownership
affected by project including
purchase and construction easement.
Evidence of financial capacity of
applicant to undertake for
preliminary work and project.
Statement of proposed operation of
project works during low, normal
and flood flows.
13
13
13
2, 11, 12,
13
2, 3, 6,
12, 13
3, 6, 7, 12
Complete
Produced
10
10
10
10
10
2
11
6
Product
Under Task
Required Additional Effort
Under Task 10
Acquire copies of state laws
under which the application
is made.
Secure data from APA regarding
minutes, resolutions of the
authorizing application.
Acquire copies of special hydro-
electric, waterpower, or
irrigation laws of the State of
Alaska.
Prepare statement of steps that
have been taken and that remain
to be taken.
Acquire certificate from Alaska
Department of Natural Resources
regarding water rights.
Review statement for deficien-
cies, monitor preparation.
Monitor preparation of statement
or explanation showing proposed
method of financing.
Prepare necessary statement
based on various task outputs.
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Exhibits
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R
TABLE 1 -TASK 10 (cont.)
FERC LICENSE APPLICATION: EXHIBITS
Primary Contributions Complete Product
Description From Task Numbers Produced Under Task
Estimate of dependable capacity 3, 6 6
and average annual energy output
of the proposed project.
General map showing project 2' 6' 8 6
boundaries, features and
general location.
Detailed map of project area 2' 6, 8 6
clearly showing project boundaries,
survey data, land ownership and
location of project features.
General design drawings of all 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
principal structures and appur-6, 8
tenant features and other works
of the project.
General descriptions of mechani-6, 8 6, 8
cal, electrical and transmission
equipment and appurtenances.
Detailed estimate of cost of 1 ' 2, 6, 8, 9
developing the project. 9, 11
Detailed engineering and 9
construction schedules.
Not required. None
Proposed plan for full public 2, 6, 7, 10
utilization of project waters 12, 13
and adjacent lands for recrea-
tional purposes.
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Required Additional Effort
Under Task 10
Review for adequacy,monitor
preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
None
Prepare plan in consultation
with State, native owners,
local communities, others.
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TABLE 1 -TASK 10 (cont.)
FERC LICENSE APPLICATION: EXHIBITS
Exhibits Description
S Report on the effect of the
project upon the fish and
wildlife resources of the
project area.
T Statement of reasons why deve-
lopment of the project by
applicant rather than by the
Federal Government would be
in the best public interest.
U Statement showing the manner
in which the power and energy
produced by the project will
be utilized.
V Map, text, photographs and
drawings to describe the archi-
tectural and landscaping treat-
ment proposed for the project
works.
W Environmental report.
Primary Contributions Complete Product
From Ta~k Numbers Produced Under Task
3, 6, 7, 6 -Drawings
12 7 -Text
1, 11, 12, 10
13
1,8,11 11
2, 6 6
1,7,12 7
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Required Additional Effort
Under Task 10
Review fish passage and miti-
gation drawings under Task 6
for adequacy. Review report
from Task 8.
Prepare statement.
Review statement for adequacy,
monitor preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
Review for adequacy, monitor
preparation.
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AS-277
A.5.12 -TASK 11: MARKETING AND FINANCING
(i) Task Objectives
To establish the feasibility of financing the project and to develop
an approach which provides optimum financing cost to Alaska power
Authority and the best overall benefit to the State of Alaska. An
essential element of this task will be to build confidence in the
project.
(ii) Task Output
The principal output of this task will be the draft support documen-
tation for bond offering. While nine primary documents and approxi-
mately sixteen additional support documents are involved, some will
be prepared with relative ease because the data contained therein
will necessarily have been produced for other purposes. Notable
outputs unique to the marketing and financing issue include a series
of risk analyses and procedures for risk control and minimization, as
well as a taxation report addressing the important question of eligi-
bility for tax-exempt bond issuance.
Documents will be produced under three main categories:
(a) -Project Overview,
including
(b) -Internal Reports
for Management/
Financial
Consideration
(Provisional
Listing)
Review of Design and Construction
Concepts and Methodology
Review of Cost Estimates and Schedules
Economic Limits of Project
Preliminary Assessment of the Financing
Plan and Bond Offering Documentation
Review of Environmental Constraints
Development of the Organization and
Expertise Sources
Major Risks and Responses
Financing Requirements of all Parties and
the Completion Guarantee
Assessment of Capital Costs and
Schedules
Assessment of Critical Engineering Tasks
and Associated Risk Analysis
Project Contingencies, Risk Analysis and
Planning
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(b) -Internal Reports
for Management/
Financial
Consideration
(Provisional
Listing) (Cont.)
(c) -Draft Bond
Documentation
(Provisional
Listing)
Environmental Agencies Requirements
Native Peoples Requirements
Probable Economic Limits to Project
Inflation and Escalation Assessment
Overrun Possibilities
AS-278
Risk Management Organization and Risk
Minimization Policy
Security of Project Capital Structure
Economic Impact Preview
Evaluation of Alternative Markets
Available for Susitna Output
Evaluation of Alternate Options for
Meeting Rail Belt Power Needs
Review of Construction Contract
Performance History in Alaska re Cost and
Schedule
General Economic Review
A. Primary Volumes
Power Contracts
Engineering Report
Statutory Agreements, Legal Approvals
and Land Claims
Summary of Corporate Documents
Technical Abstract and Engineer's
Certificate
Construction Cost Estimate Summary
Construction Schedule and Project
Expenditure Program
Insurance
Financing Summary
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AS-279
B. Support Volumes
Overall Project Organization
Engineering Reports (Construction)
-Access and Site Preservation
-Environmental Standards, Monitoring
and Control
-Quality Assurance and Testing
Programs
-Support Facilities and Logistics
Engineering Reports (Operations)
-Operating and Replacement
Expenditures
-Chargeable Corporate Expenditures
Labor Agreements
Plan for Alaska Manpower and
Procurement Content
Risk Management and Minimization
-Risk Analysis and Control
-Risk Minimization
Taxation Report
Legal Report
Review of Giant Projects
-Financing
-Construction and Engineering
Alternative Energy Sources
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(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 11.01 -Project Overview Preparation and Updates
Subtask 11.02 -Internal Report Preparation
Subtask 11.03 -Alternative Power Source Risk Analysis
Subtask 11.04 -Susitna Base Plan Initial Risk Analysis
Subtask 11.05 -Susitna Base Plan Extension and Revision
Subtask 11.06 -Susitna Financing Risk Analysis
Subtask 11.07 -Resolution of Tax Exempt Bond Issue
Subtask 11.08 -Identify Parties in Interest
Subtask 11.09 -Revenue Assurance Procedures
Subtask 11.10 -Liaison with APA Bond Underwriting Managers
Subtask 11.11 -Draft Documentation for Bond Offering Support
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
AS-280
It is recognized that Susitna is most likely to proceed on the basis
of a Project Financing. Essential to this will be an accurate
determination of revenues and properly established energy sales
agreements. Furthermore, all project risks must be identified, their
potential impact assessed, and appropriate contingency plans and
provisions made.
In the approach recommended, a close working arrangement will be
established from the outset of the study betwen technical, economic
and financial advisory groups. The interaction between these
interests will be developed through a series of specific tasks which
provide the Authority with successively more comprehensive outlines
and definition of a financing plan.
As the study proceeds, the specific requirements for supporting
material essential for financing will be identified and its
preparation undertaken in close collaboration with the selected bond
underwriters. The completeness and excellence of bond offering
support documentation is judged to be of crucial importance to a
successful project. The work involves numerous, complex and
interlinked tasks; and only comprehensive pre-planning can achieve
the desired result.
In order to present the project in proper perspective to the many
parties involved--Federal, State and local agencies, regulatory
authorities, power purchasers, potential lenders, institutions,
political groups and public--a comprehensive overview will be
prepared. This will initially be in general terms, but will endeavor
to cover all the interrelated elements of the project. As work
proceeds, successive editions of the overview report become more
explicit and complete.
It will be recognized that the knowledge and enthusiasm of many who
have the power of veto or constraint over the Susitna project will be
less than that of Alaska Power Authority and those most closely
involved. Studies and explanations which may seem unnecessary to the
sponsoring group may well be needed to convince third parties and
engender their enthusiasm •
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AS-281
It is furthermore vitally important to disperse the knowledge amongst
those employed in the project that all potential problems have been
thoroughly examined and solved. This will generate the necessary
degree of infectious enthusiasm which is an essential ingredient for
even a determined team to succeed.
The work of the interdisciplinary group incorporating technical,
economic, financial, and other skills would, furthermore, demonstrate
clearly for management consideration the clear economic limits to the
Susitna project (e.g., its maximum acceptable cost) and the time
period in which its accomplishment must be regarded as a certainty
before other measures to meet Alaska's power needs would have to be
adopted. While examination of the negative limits of the project
could be regarded as an expression of pessimism or even, in the
ultimate, capable of cancelling the project, we consider such
analysis vital. It should serve to establish the general robustness
of the project and to demonstrate beyond doubt to the various
governments, investors, lenders, completion guarantors and others the
viability of any recommended scheme for development.
As the various elements of the project study reach the appropriate
level of completion, it is planned to apply a rigorous analysis of
risk and to recommend contingency provisions. The approaches to be
used would involve modern techniques of analysis and probability
assessment and deal with cost, schedule, technical and other
controlling elements of the project.
The approach to be adopted would derive full benefit from previous
financing efforts for major capital projects requiring capital
funding of $1 billion or more. Experience has demonstrated the need
for close and effective interaction between the owner and the various
elements of his advisory team. ·
(v) Logic Diagram
A logic diagram is presented at Plate 1 of Task 11 as the basis for
graphically illustrating the manner in which various documents are
prepared, interrelated, and assembled.
(vi) Investment Banker Inputs
Associated with us in Task 11 will be the investment banking firm of
Salomon Brothers which is described in their memorandum at Section C
of this Plan of Study. Salomon Brothers will apply its professional
skills, experience, and judgement as a major investment banker to
assist us in every aspect of Task 11 at a total level of effort
to be determined. Costs throughout the various subtasks include
both Acres and Salomon Brothers work.
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Subtask 11.01 -Project Overview Preparation and Update
(a) Objective
A5-282
Provide a key project document which reviews all major aspects of the
project and its objectives, determining in principle whether these can
be successfully met; provide through successive updating a continuing
reassessment of the project•s overall viability and financibility as
various milestones are reached; and allow multidisciplinary inputs from
many sources to be properly coordinated into a cohesive and well-
balanced definition of the project.
{b) Approach
This subtask will be performed by a small team who will receive inputs
from many multidisciplinary sectors involved in the study. Initially
the Project Overview will concentrate on descriptive outline of the
project objectives, the site for development and the project facili-
ties. Capital costs and schedules will be at the outset preliminary
only, but nonetheless considered adequate to determine initial overall
viability. The Project Overview will identify the sensitivity to
various risks and outline methods of mitigating these and possibly
removing some from further consideration.
The project overview and its subsequent revisions in updated from at
intervals of about 6 months throughout the study will be presented from
the "owners viewpoint" and consider all important aspects which affect
acceptance, financibility and the undertaking of construction of the
hydroelectric facilities.
The team will be directed by experienced senior staff familiar with the
approach essential to such "Giant Projects" and the complex financing
arrangements that these involve.
In achieving its goal of preparation of a comprehensive, clearly under-
standable~ concise and accurate overview of the project, the Project
Overview Task Force will call on specific inputs from many sources,
including:
-Technical
-Environmental
-Economic
-Marketing
-Financial
-Insurance
-Transportation
-Labor
-Tax
-Legal
-Political
Typical elements of the Project Overview are listed in Subparagraph
(ii)(a) of Task Output above.
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AS-283
The final issue of the Project ·Overview during the study phase will
provide a valuable summary document to bridge into subsequent licensing
and preliminary design phases of the work. Eventually its content will
have significant value for the Bond Offering Support Document and a
variety of other applications, including preparation of project
brochures as part of the public participation program.
(c) Discussion
The concept of the continuously updated 11 Project Overview 11 is of
relatively recent origin and has developed from the special needs of
large complex projects. It is necessary to address the complexity with
a well planned compilation of material which places all the technical,
commercial, economic, financial, contractual, environmental and other
aspects in proper perspective and demonstrates that all vital problems
are being sensibly addressed. The overview is planned to provide a
consistent thread of documentation through the whole study process and,
if construction should proceed, to provide a datum base for judging
actual performance of the many elements in relation to the plans.
As the documents will have to serve many varied and non-technical
interests, the language must be appropriately chosen and carefully
edited for clarity and ease of understanding. Extensive use will be
made of graphics, drawings, maps and pictorial illustrations. Produc-
tion and binding will reflect the level of economy appropriate to draft
and eventually final documentation.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force •••••••••••~1!•••••••••-:•••••••••o $154,000
(e) Schedule
Throughout the study period.
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Subtask 11.02 -Internal Report Preparation
(a) Objective
Prepare topical reports, for management consideration, on those
A5-284
aspects of the projects which have a strong bearing on financibility of
the project; present material derived from the overall study in form
suitable for easy assimilation by non-engineering participants in the
overall task; and present the risks to which the project is exposed in
the proper perspective.
(b) Approach
The team provided to assess the overall financibility of the project
will be responsible for drawing together from many sources data,
viewpoints, reports, assessments, impact statements, documents and a
variety of other supporting material. In carrying out this task, the
multidisciplinary specialists who will be supporting the team will
assemble and edit topical internal reports for consideration by
managerial staff of the Authority, their financial advisors/under-
writing managers and others guiding the project through its study phase
to implementation or abandonment. The internal reports may ultimately
form a substantial proportion of documents to be subsequently produced
in direct support of the financing or for a variety of other purposes.
Every effort will be made to foresee all future possible uses of the
material and its presentation will be appropriately arranged.
One element of the internal reports which will receive special consi-
deration is risk assessment, which will be applied to several aspects
of the project such as technical, financial overrun, schedule delay,
operating reliability, etc. Means of mitigating project risks will be
dealt with in a comprehensive fashion as will be the contribution from
insurance sources in dealing with residual exposures. The important
detailed risk analysis itself is covered under subtasks 11.04 through
11.06 below. Related internal reports prepared as a a part of this
subtask will present the results of those detailed professional studies
in a manner which can be easily understood by decision makers whose
ultimate agreement is essential to eventual construction.
Subparagraph (ii){b) of the Task Output above sets out a provisional
listing of typical documents which may be required. The final listing
would be planned at an early stage of the study in conjunction with the
Authority and their advisors. Control sheets outlining responsibi-
lities for specific input, index of contacts, and required schedule
will be prepared in this planning stage.
The internal reports provide, on a selective basis, much of the
material for the various editions of the Project Overview and the
production of both series will be closely coordinated.
The goal will be to prepare a consistent and cohesive series of reports
which will clearly address all the vital issues affecting project
release for construction •
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AS-285
(c) Discussion
While it might well be argued that documents of the type envisaged are
the inevitable products of a comprehensive study, the benefit of a
specific source of consistent internal reports is that the Authority
will receive objective, well balanced, professional arguments on key
issues to allow properly informed decisions. It is important to note
that this approach is responsive to the APA plan to remain a lean,
efficient organization. In a bigger and more highly staffed organiza-
tion undertaking a major project of the scale of Susitna, the internal
reports would be produced, no doubt, by individual specialist depart-
ments for the owners• project team responsible for final decision.
The proposed approach permits APA to avoid overstaffing for relatively
short study or project management periods. An opportunity is offered
whereby the special project task force performs these responsibilities
under the control and direction of the Executive Director and the
Board.
The team would be closely linked to the overall project study organiza-
tion and perform functions which will be an essential part of the study
task. It will serve, however, the owners• control group directly in
providing the basis for assessment and decision on many issues having
an impact on the project.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force ...... ~ .. ~ ... "., ~ ~ ~ '! ~ ~ ~ ~ '!! t!! ••••• '! •• $183·,000
(e) Schedule
Throughout the period of study.
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Subtask 11.03 -Alternative Power Source Risk Analysis
(a) Objective
A5-286
Examine uncertainty with an emphasis on relative differences dependent
upon electricity source patterns; identify key uncertainty differences
and key interdependencies; and if necessary, quantify uncertainty
differences and their interdependencies; establish the validity of key
assumptions; and assess viable levels of risk in terms of the State of
Alaska•s electric power generation mix.
{b) Approach
Acres will coordinate the assessment. Input will be obtained from
personnel responsible for each study component, APA source documents
and their authors, related reports, and related general literature.
Established cross-impact analysis techniques will be recast in the
general risk analysis framework developed by Acres to establish poten-
tial variation ranges conditional upon the values of other key
variables. The key difference is the treatment of time as a continuous
process rather than a series of events. To consider these relation-
ships, we will identify the reasons for potential variations, concen-
trating on broadly defined reasons which have different effects upon
each of several source mixes. For example, alternative growth rates
developed under Task 1, Power Studies, will be related to two or thr~e
different rates of fuel cost escalation. Simple functional relation-
ships will be established to illustrate key interdependencies. A
number of power generation patterns with and without Susitna will be
evaluated in terms of a sensitivity analysis using these conditional
relationships between extremes.
If the case for or against Susitna is not clear, on expected cost
grounds, these simple relationships will be refined, associated uncer-
tainty will be quantified, and the validity of key assumptions will be
established to the extent possible within budget extensions not
considered in this proposal. Expected future electric power cost risk
relationships for each electric power generation pattern considered
will then be related to the need for the APA to avoid risky situations
and mitigate the effects of undesirable situations.
(c) Discussion
General agreement on the extent of such dependencies will not be easily
obtained. However, it is a key issue which should not be ignored.
Most people will be sympathetic to the existence of some dependence,
and minimal dependency assumptions may be all that is necessary to
establish a clear case. A simple but realistic initial approach is a
low cost minimum risk approach. Extension must be assessed in terms of
initial results.
Providing conditional estimates will be a useful aspect of assessing
base estimates, and associated costs for other participants are
incorporated in their provisions, with the exception of wee. For
related reason, no attempt to cost APA input has been made. Expenses
account for the need to seek a wide spectrum of expert opinion.
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AS-287
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (WCC) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 2,500
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 15,000
Total Subtask 11.0a ............................. $17,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 30
After week 30
Development of initial conditional relationships
and sensitivity analysis based evaluation of
alternatives
Extension and refinement if necessary as
necessary, overlapping subtask 12.04 if
necessary.
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Subtask 11.04 -Susitna Base Plan Initial Risk Analysis
(a) Objective
A5-288
Identify all relevant risks in terms of specific problems associated
with specific major components of the project and key aspects of the
alternative power source risk assessment developed in subtask 12.03;
identify all relevant preventative and responsive measures for these
risks; identify which risks are minor given effective responses, and
which need further attention; make a preliminary quantitative assess-
ment of some key construction time risks, and their relationships with
other key project cost risks, flagging risks which are important but
best treated as conditions with respect to the current quantitative
analysis; stimulate information flow between planning groups with
respect to likely departures from the base plan; and stimulate documen-
tation of problems and solutions to those problems underlying the base
plan.
(b) Approach
Acres will coordinate the assessment. Input will be obtained from
project personnel responsible for each component. Procedures developed
by Acres will be used to assess construction time risk as follows:
Risk lists will be produced, labelling and describing all the relevant
risks all those involved can identify.
Response lists will be produced, labelling and describing all relevant
responses associated with each risk.
Secondary risk and response lists will be produced, considering risks
associated with responses.
Rough quantitative assessment of risk/response sequences will allow
some risks to be identified as minor, and not worth further analysis at
present.
Still using risk/response lists, responses will be partially struc-
tured. Responses common to more than one risk will be identified.
Responses will be preference ordered. Where possible, decision rules
defining when responses would be used will be identified.
Special diagrams will be constructed to summarize the above analysis in
a simple form.
Key base plan assumptions and key assumptions concerning responses to
potential problems will be identified.
Probabilities necessary to assess key assumptions will be estimated.
Most will be very specific conditional probabilities: for example,
what is the probability of x working days for a particular activity in
a particular month?
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AS-289
The implications of key assumptions will be examined, first in the
context of specific risks for specific activities, gradually at a
broader and broader level. For example, we will assess the chance of
achieving the planned work on a specific activity in a specific season
in relation to one or two key risks first, then look at other risks and
other seasons. We will not relate different activities until we are
satisfied with assumptions key to the activity itself.
A variety of output forms will be used, depending on the questions
being asked of the analysis. Most will be comparative probability
distribution representations: for example, the probability of
finishing activity y by month x given a start in May, June, July, etc.
Construction time risk will be summarized, and converted to construc-
tion cost risk.
Other sources of construction cost risk will be considered in a similar
manner, and linked to produce overall construction cost probability
representations for confidence limit assessment purposes. Appropriate
confidence limit assessment will be based on a comparison of quantified
risks and nonquantified risks which must be treated as conditions.
Construction cost risk analysis will take place in a fixed time frame
structure, unlike the PERT based analysis usually employed. That is,
we will consider uncertainty in terms of 11 how much work can we achieve
in a given tirile 11
, instead of 11 how long will it take to achieve a given
amount of work... This approach makes it much easier to assess probabi-
lities, always a difficult task. It facilitates the consideration of
weather windows and other seasonal dependencies. It also facilitates
integrating construction cost risk with inflation and escalation
studies at this point.
Other sources of project risk will be considered qualitatively in a
similar manner, structuring risks and responses via listing procedures
and simple summary diagrams.
Computation procedures are based on numerical integration techniques in
a semi-Markov process framework. Another key advantage of the fixed
time frame is the efficiency and precision of this approach relative to
the more usual simulation or moment integration analytical procedures.
All aspects of the Acres• approach to risk analysis have been widely
used in the context of fault tree and event tree analysis, reliability
analysis, generalized PERT, Markov process and decision tree analysis.
However, the way we have integrated these aspects into a procedure
tested in a variety of application areas is unique. Areas of applica-
tion of the integrated procedure include hydro projects, thermal power
projects, arctic gas pipelines, offshore North Sea oil pipelines and
platforms, underground energy storage projects.
(c) Discussion
The effort expended on risk analysis can be tailored to an available
budget. However, it must be expended in a systematic manner, and
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AS-290
experience suggests that at this stage in a project•s life a relatively
simple quantitative analysis will suffice provided risks and associated
preventative and responsive measures are carefully identified. If they
are not, quantification of risks is rather meaningless, because it is
not clear what has and has not been included.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (FMA) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 5,500
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 19,000
Total Subtask 11.04 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $24,500
(e) Schedule
Weeks 53 through 75
After week 75
Develop initial risk analysis as base plan is
developed, including quantitative analysis to
test key base plan assumptions.
Prepare risk analysis documentation for license
application submission.
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AS-291
Subtask 11.05 -Susitna Base Plan Extension and Revision
(a) Objectives
Periodically revise the base plan initial risk assessment as the base
plan develops; explore key risk areas identified earlier; assist with
base plan development as and when necessary; and respond to FERC
requests for further analysis.
{b) Approach
Within the basic framework established in Subtask 12.04, further
specific extensions and revisions.
(c) Discussion
Experience suggests risk analysis can be extremely useful at this stage
in a project's development, but it is difficult to predict what sort of
issues will benefit from further analysis until preliminary risk
analysis results are available.
Costing is necessarily vague at this stage, but we believe the figure
quoted should allow updating as necessary and response to a reasonable
number of risk areas uncovered earlier and assessment of key changes
proposed for the base plan.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••• $20,000
(e) Schedule
As and when necessary.
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AS-292
Subtask 11.06 -Susitna Financing Risk Analysis
(a) Objective
(b)
(c)
Build on earlier risk analysis consideration of financial issues not
yet developed, including assessment of contract and insurance arrange-
ments, and an appropriate level of direct and indirect .. insurance ...
Approach
Within the basic framework established in Subtask 11.05, specific
extensions and revisions, in terms of both quantitative and qualitative
analysis.
Discussion
Earlier listing and structuring of risks and responses is of great
value at this stage. Each proposed contract can be assessed against
appropriate checklists of potential problems, and contract arrangements
or insurances which cover a number of different sources of risk can be
developed into an effective overall risk management pattern.
This subtask will be performed in its entirety subsequent to submittal
of license application. Thus, the required level of effort, although
presented below, is not included in the estimated costs associated with
submittal of license application.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• $10,000
(e) Schedule
From license application to bonding.
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Subtask 11.07 -Resolution of Tax Exempt Bond Issue
(a) Objective
AS-293
Explore_ all legal means to secure tax-exempt financing for the Susitna
Project and identify and describe those measures which must be taken in
each case to secure that end.
Rank order preferred approaches in the event more than one legal means
is identified. Prepare a report summarizing reasons tax exempt
financing is found to be impossible in the event no legal means is
identified.
(b) Approach
A memorandum on financing considerations prepared by Salomon Brothers
is included in Section C to this Plan of Study. As noted therein, a
number of possible alternatives under the IRS Code can be explored.
The special rules provided under Section 103 of Treasury Regulations
for applying trade or business test and security interest test to bonds
issued to finance an electric generating facility owned and operated by
an exempt person (in this case, the State of Alaska or a public power
authority) will be considered in a series of sequential steps summar-
ized as follows:
(1) Classify the anticipated purchasers of power from the Susitna
project into exempt and nonexempt persons. For example, munici-
palities such as Anchorage and Fairbanks will be exempt persons,
whereas private electrical co-ops will be nonexempt.
(2) Determine whether any one nonexempt person will contract to take,
or take or pay for, more than 25 percent of the project output of
the Susitna project. If there is such a person, then the trade or
business test is met.
(3) If there is no such person, identify the nonexempt persons who
will each pay annual guaranteed minimum payments exceeding 3
percent of the average debt service on the Susitna bonds. The
trade or business test is satisfied if the aggregate amount of
power which these persons contract to take, or take or pay for,
exceeds 25 percent of the project output of the Susitna project.
(4) If the trade or business test is met, total the payments that will
be both pledged or used to pay debt service on the Susitna bonds
and made pursuant to the contracts referred to in either paragraph
2 or 3 above. The security interest test is met if this aggregate
amount exceeds 25 percent of the total debt service on the Susitna
bonds.
If it appears that the Susitna bonds may be industrial development
bonds because of the commitments by nonexempt persons to purchase
power, consideration may be given to altering the makeup of the
group of purchasers to avoid the trade or business test or
security interest test. Further details are provided in the
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A5-294
Salomon Brothers memorandum. Assuming that one or more approaches
are found to be possible, each will be evaluated in terms of the
associated difficulties and probabilities of successful defense
against challenge by or on behalf of regulatory authorities. All
reasonable approaches will be rank ordered and the apparent best
will be developed into a series of explicit measures to be taken
by the State (including recommendations for legislation to be
passed), the Alaska Power Authority, and others.
In the event that tax exempt financing is found to be impossible,
a report will be prepared detailing the reasons that no reasonable
approach could be found.
(c) Discussion
The question of tax-exemption on interest to be paid on bonds issued to
finance the project is of extreme importance, for the overall cost of
the project power and the type of financing plan to be developed hinge
upon its resolution. So important, in fact, is this issue that even a
negative report should not necessarily be regarded as a final and
irrevocable ruling on the matter. Indeed, given the importance which
the federal government has now attached to domestic energy production
(especially from renewable resources) it is not inconceivable that
federal regulatory or statutory changes can be achieved.
In the event, however, that negative findings on the tax exempt
question are produced and cannot be reversed, the financibility of the
project will not then necessarily become doubtful. The best
alternative to tax exempt bonds will be recommended by an experience
professional investment banking firm whose successful historical
participation in large project financing is well documented.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force ..................................... $150,000
Total Subtask 11.07 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $150,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 20. Intermittent updates thereafter.
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A5-295
Subtask 11.08 -Identify Parties in Interest
(a) Objective
Identify potential candidates to share some of the direct and indirect
project risks and describe their possible involvements.
(b) Approach
A survey of all organizations and entities with any possible direct or
indirect risk sharing involvement will be accomplished. These parties
might include, for example, municipal electric systems, rural electric
cooperatives, investor owned utilities, the Alaska Power Administra-
tion, and others. A profile will be drawn up for each and an assess-
ment will be made as to how much of the total risk each may be expected
to share under appropriate alternative scenarios and as to how such
sharing can reasonably be accomplished.
(c) Discussion
There are a number of basic project financing risks which must be
addressed. The analysis, assessment, and, where appropriate, quantifi-
cation of these risks will be accomplished under Subtasks 11.04 through
11.06. Financing risks include:
Cost overruns prior to completion
Late completion and non-completion
Partial or total post-completion outages
Customer failure to provide anticipated cash flows
Regulatory risks, particularly insofar as new regulations affect the
operation (and, therefore, of course, the profitability and/or
consumer costs).
Technological risks, particularly insofar as the extent to which new
or relatively unproven technology may increase financing
difficulties.
Given these risks and reasonably detailed profiles of potential risk
sharing parties, it is possible to consider a number of alternative
participation scenarios. As successive iterations of the risk analysis
efforts occur, the possible involvements of parties-in-interest are
correspondingly clarified. An essential first step in this process,
however, is the task of identifying and profiling potential candidates.
Thus, this subtask provides an explicit recognition of that need.
(d) Level of Effort
(e)
Task Force (Acres) ........••••••••••••••••••• $25,000
Total Subtask 11.08 •••••••••••••••••••••••••• $25,000
Schedule
Weeks 10 through 30
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Subtask 11.09 -Revenue Assurance Procedures
(a) Objective
Explore alternative means to provide adequate revenue assurance to
protect investors against the risk of default; develop a strategy for
success.
(b) Approach
For large energy projects, the necessary revenue assurance may be
derived from a demonstration of demand for the project output and
adequate customer and regulatory support of the price for the power.
Demonstration of demand can be satisfied by power sales contracts
between APA and the immediate customers (e.g., municipalities, coopera-
tives, military bases, industrial plants, etc.). We intend to consider
a number of alternative types of commitments and match them against
immediate customers identified earlier in the group of parties-in-
interest (see Subtask 11.08). Certain specific commitment types are
described in the Salomon memorandum in the Appendix. These include
take-or-pay obligations, take-and-pay obligations, minimum payment
obligations, and step-up provisions.
Since price regulation and other regulatory constraints would neces-
sarily affect the project, it is important to include discussions with
all governmental and regulatory agencies in this exploration of revenue
assurance.
In addition to power sales contracts, guaranties by the State or
Federal government or others would provide further assurances.
Guarantee possibilities will be identified and a preliminary assessment
will be made of the probability of acquiring them •
A number of funds will be required (including, for example, "Reserve
and Contingency Fund" or Operating Fund 11
) to ensure protection against
unexpected shortfalls. Each such requirement will be identified along
with its source.
As a final step in the development of revenue assure procedures, the
apparent best strategy for successfully achieving the desired degree of
revenue assurance will be described in a report to be prepared as a
part of this subtask.
(c) Discussion
The basic credit risk against which investors attempt to protect
themselves is the risk of default. The risk of default lies in the
borrower's inability to meet interest and principal payments on his
debt obligations in a timely fashion. Adequate revenue assurance
protects the investor against this risk.
It will not be enough to conduct a one-time study of the revenue
assurance issue and then assume the results will continue to remain
valid throughout the course of the financing effort. Rather, a
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AS-297
relatively continuous updating process is essential. In this regard,
the provision of investment banker•s services by a firm experienced in
providing financial services for large projects is particularly
important.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••• $75,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 100 through 120. Subsequent schedule to be determined.
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Subtask 11.10-Liaison with APA Bond Underwriting Managers
(a) Objective
A5-298
Provide a continuing input as appropriate from study tasks of informa-
tion and data which may have an impact on financing; provide engineer-
ing advice to the financing management group; and report to the Project
Manager on any issues where financing considerations have an impact on
the evolution of the project.
(b) Approach
Financing of a major project such as Susitna will call for a level of
effort and ingenuity well beyond that normally involved in public works
undertakings. Experience (particularly from the $1 billion Churchill
Falls Project) has established the benefit in a particularly close
relationship between technically oriented senior staff closely
associated with the engineering related development of the project and
the financial, legal, insurance, economic and other professional
advisors assembled by the owner. The leader of the task force carrying
the responsibilities under Subtasks 11.01 and 11.02 will be eminently
suited and placed to provide this liaison function as an essential part
of his other duties.
(c) Discussion
In major projects, there must be continual emphasis on multidisciplin-
ary approaches to most of the important issues that have to be
resolved. When capital investment is more modest and where many prece-
dent cases are available for guiding decisions, the degree of liaison
and interlinking of interests contemplated here might be viewed as
extravagant. However, it may be suggested that the exigencies of even
less ambitious capital works exposed to excessive cost escalation and
the many risks imposed by current public and political attitudes call
for closeknit coordination of all project interests throughout the
undertaking from concept to completion.
The target is completion in the most efficient and cost-effective way
possible and the strictest level of adherence to schedule and budget
throughout the project. The aim can be most effectively taken by close
cooperation between all interests from the outset.
(d) Level of Effort
(Costs of these services integrated with all other subtasks in
Task 11.)
(e) Schedule
Continuous through the full period of study.
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Subtask 11.11 -Draft Documentation for Bond Offering Support
(a) Objective
A5-299
Review with the Authority's Bond Underwriting Manager the requirements
for support documents; prepare and issue outline index and content
specifications and allocated responsibility for input; prepare, edit
and produce successive draft documents in parallel with other findings,
reports, etc, being produced in the later phases of the overall study,
and prepare 11 Engineers Opinions" to support certification of the
project.
(b) Approach
Throughout the financing support task, attention will be continually
focused on the ultimate objective of a successful bond issue. Very
large projects requiring financing at levels of $1 billion or more call
for a particularly high standard of support documentation to build a
sufficient level of confidence in the investment potential. Managers
of major financing institutions are becoming increasingly sophisticated
in their approach, particularly to major projects and owners and under-
writing managers must respond to their more exacting requirements.
We see the vital importance of preparing inputs to the bond offering
support documents as the study proceeds. It would be planned that
draft documents would be available by the conclusion of the study and
to be available for further refinement as the project proceeds through
licensing to its release date.
The specific approach to be adopted would parallel the successful
precedent of Churchill Falls Hydroelectric Power Development which led
in 1968 to the marketing of $550 million in First Mortgage Bonds.
While in this case work was heavily concentrated in a 3-month period in
1967 and continued at a lesser level for 15 months in 1968, it is
recommended that for Susitna the support materials should be method-
ically assembled through out the study period and prepared in draft
form well in anticipation of any offering. A provisional listing of
Bond Offering Documentation is set out in subparagraph (ii) of Task 11
above, and a summary of the objectives of each of the proposed
documents is repeated at Table 1 of Task 11.
(c) Discussion
It will be apparent from the provisional listing of Documents that a
wide range of interrelated topics must be addressed. This calls for
input from a multidisiplinary group of specialists and sensitive
coordination of all material into a cohesive, balanced and interrelated
series of documents. These serve to demonstrate that all important
questions have, in fact, been properly addressed and that the project
has a high level of overall security as a result.
In view of the legal significance of these documents, the process of
editing, approval and publication will require close working
arrangement with the Authority's counsel, the underwriting managers,
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A5-300
legislative interests in the State of Alaska, and the owners• manage-
ment team. The effort requires a painstaking level of careful process-
ing of very large amounts of data and material and justifies its
assignment to our experienced team with appropriate prior exposure to
this function.
A perusal of the list of bond offering support documentation as
displayed in Table 1 reveals that there are great similarities to
documentation required as exhibits to the FERC license application (see
Task 10). Thus, we will, in many cases, use the same documentation
both as an exhibit and as bond offering support documentation. In
others, it will be necessary to refonnat exhibit data to meet financing
needs. To the extent possible, however, bond offering support
documentation will be delayed until after license exhibits have
otherwise been prepared.
Annex A to Task 11 refers to work carried out for BRINCO on Churchi 11
Falls Hydroelectric Power Development in 1967-68.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $136,000
(e) Schedule
Commence month 6 and to be presented in a form for continuing effort
into subsequent phases of the project.
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TABLE 1 OF TASK 11
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC POWER PROJECT
AS-301
PROVISIONAL liST OF BOND OFFERING SUPPORT DOCUMENTS
A -PRIMARY DOCUMENTS
1. Power Contracts
2. Engineering Report
3. Statutory Agreements, Legal
Approvals/Land Claims
4. Summary of Corporate
Documents
5. Technical Abstract and
Engineer's Certificate
6. Construction Cost Estimate
OBJECTIVE
To outline the terms and conditions
of sale of the power and energy
output from the Susitna project.
To provide a comprehensive state-
ment,in simple language, regarding
the physical nature of the site,
the basis of development, the
determination of energy output, and a
description of all facilities.
To provide a comprehensive assembly
of all relevant agreements as far as
possible in their original layout and
form.
To provide a comprehensive assembly
of documents relating to the Alaska
Power Authority and any other partic-
ipants in the project.
To summarize the engineering report,
construction cost estimates,
schedule, operating and replacement
expenditure estimates, and other
documents leading to firm conclusions
supported by an Engineer's
Certificate of Opinion relating to
operation, cost and schedule •
To set out the basis of the construc-
tion cost estimate, including contin-
gency provisions and to provide the
necessary detail to establish an
adequate level of completeness and
confidence.
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7. Construction Schedule and
Project Expenditure Program
8. Insurance
9. Financing Summary
B -SUPPORT DOCUMENTS
1. Overall Project Organization
2. Engineering Reports
(Construction)
2.1 -Access and Site
Preservation
2.2 -Environmental Standards,
Monitoring and Control
2.3 -Quality Assurance and
Testing Programs
AS-302
To provide a concise, but detailed,
description of the construction
schedule and project expenditure pro-
gram of all facilities and critical
path networks of all supporting
activities in the overall construc-
tion plan.
To set out a concise statement of
risks during construction and opera-
tion with an evaluation of the
maximum foreseeable loss.
To provide a summary of equity, debt
and completion guarantee standby
financing requirements with a
schedule of drawdowns to meet con-
struction plans.
OBJECTIVE
To provide a summary of relationships
of all companies involved in the
project with details of origins,
responsibilities and corporate
structures, supplemented with organi-
zation charts showing lines of
reporting and authority.
To provide a detailed description of
the arrangements made for access and
heavy transportation to the project
site with a full statement of
measures taken for site preservation
and avoidance of delay arising from
environmental concern.
To provide a comprehensive summary of
all applicable requirements,
r~sponses and reports concerning
environmental aspects of the project
construction and operation.
To set out quality assurance
directives established by the
Authority and detailed evidence to
demonstrate the methods by which
these will be achieved •
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2.4 -Support Facilities and
3. Engineering Report
(Operations)
3.1 -Operating and
Replacement Expenditures
3.2 -Chargeable Corporate
Expenditures
4. Labor Agreements
5. Plan for Alaskan Manpower
and Procurement Content
6. Risk Management
6.1 -Risk Analysis and
Control
A5-303
To provide a comprehensive descrip-
tion of all construction and opera-
tional support facilities with
demonstration of the adequacy of
these to meet project requirements ,
including contingencies.
To provide details of the basis of
estimate for the manning and operat-
ing of the power project, and for the
continuing maintenance plans.
To set out the estimates of corporate
expenditures incurred by the
authority which can be legitimately
charged to operations.
To review the labor situation on both
the national and state level, togeth-
er with the legislative framework
under which special labor agreements
may be formed. To provide precedent
data on experience with master
project labor agreements. To include
a statement of intent for such agree-
ments to apply to the project, and to
demonstrate the impact of these on
project risk exposure.
To present sufficient evidence to
demonstrate that the desired portion
of Alaskan content will be incor-
porated in the overall project.
This section will describe in detail
the optimal responses to a risk
minimization study, the organization
of a formal risk management team, its
policies and methods of operation.
It will also describe review policies
and reporting systems designed to
ensure continuous updating of both
risk identification and response.
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6.2 -Risk Minimization
7. Taxation Report
8. Legal Report
9. Review of Giant Projects
9.1 -Financing
9.2 -Construction and
Engineering
10. Alternative Energy Sources
AS-304
To identify all risks to which the
project may be subject and plan
responses to them which demonstrably
reduce those risks collectively and
individually to a minimum.
The residual risk figure thus deter-
mined is an important factor in
demonstrating the reliability and
confidence level of the project.
To deal with the impact of all
aspects of federal, state and local
taxation pertinent to the project.
To deal with all aspects of
legislation and legal requirements
under which the project will be
constructed.
To identify and describe other rele-
vant project financing to demonstrate
the adequacy and logic of the project
approach.
To summarize the experience accumu-
1 a ted from major North Jlmeri can
capital projects in relation to
achievement of engineering cost
estimates and schedules.
To provide a comprehensive review of
alternative energy generation modes
applicable to Alaska, with estimates
of delivered energy cost and
long-term reliability of supply.
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[iii]
ANNEX A TO TASK 11
CHURCHILL FALLS (LABRADOR) CORPORATION LIMITED
Excerpt from 11 Bri nco, The Story of Churchi 11 Fall S 11
authored by Philip Smith, Chapter nineteen:
AS-305
On his return to New York, Mulholland (of Morgan Stanley) recommended to his
partners that while Morgan Stanley should continue to give advice wherever
it could, it should not attempt to set up the Company•s project for it.
However, he warned them .that 11 We must not undertake the financing of the
project and fail 11
, adding: 11 The statement is often made that this project
is going to go ahead regardless, that there is too much momentum,
governmental and otherwise, for it to be stopped now. There is probably a
good deal of truth in this, but it doesn•t necessarily follow that the
interests of the company will be automatically protected in the process. In
other words, this inevitability which is said to exist does not justify
recklessness or carelessness.~~
Two steps taken as a result of Mulholland•s criticism eventually provided
him with a formidable arsenal of these arguments. First, a control
committee was formed consisting of McParland, Lambert and Mulholland
himself------
Second, McParland established a task force which during the summer of 1967
was to carry out probably the most exhaustive analysis ever made of a major
construction project and produce a monumental report known thereafter as the
11 five foot shelf11
-sixteen closely packed volumes covering every
conceivable aspect of the development. Gavin Warnock, a vice president of
Acres and Ken Wolfe, Bechtel•s chief estimator, were asked to head this task
force and at the beginning of May, McParland gave them a sheaf of foolscap
sheets defining in detail the 11 input•• he wanted each volume to study.
Expo 1 67 created accommodation problems for anyone visiting Montreal that
summer but Warnock and Wolfe took over an unoccupied set of offices at 1980
Sherbrooke Street, rented desks, hired temporary secretaries and crowded the
various specialists whose talents were drawn on during the next three months
into company apartments. More than fifty experts from all over North
America eventually contributed to the report -engineers, estimators,
schedulers, economists, nuclear power consultants -and then studies
encompassed regional economies surveys assessment of the projects• likely
effect on eastern Canada and the United States, and on Labrador and
Newfoundland, analyses of the competing forms of energy that might appear in
the future and detailed financial projections designed to show that the
element of risk in the project had been reduced to its absolute minimum.
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ANNEX A (cont'd)
CHURCHILL FALLS POWER PROJECT
BOND OFFERING MEMORANDUM DOCUMENTS
Published October 1968
POWER CONTRACT VOL. 1
VOL. 2
VOL. 3
VOL. 4
VOL. 5
TECHNICAL ABSTRACT AND ENGINEERS' EVALUATION
VOL. 6
VOL. 7
VOL. 8
VOL. 9
VOL. 10
VOL. 11
VOL. 12
VOL. 13
VOL. 14
VOL. 17
VOL. 18
ENGINEERING REPORT
CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATE
CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE
PROJECT EXPENDITURE PROGRAM
AND ESCALATION STUDY
MASTER LABOUR AGREEMENT
NEWFOUNDLAND STATUTORY AGREEMENTS
INSURANCE
OUTLINE OF PROPOSED CONTRACT PACKAGES
OUTLINE OF CONTRACTING PRACTICES
MANAGEMENT CONTROL AND INFORMATION SYSTEM
CORPORATE DOCUMENTS
OPERATING AND REPLACEMENT EXPENDITURES
GENERATING PLANT AND SUPPORTING FACILITIES
PLANT AND CORPORATE EXPENDITURES
REVIEW OF MAJOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
EVALUATION OF CERTAIN PROJECT CONTINGENCIES
Not Published
VOL. 15
VOL. 16
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES FROM
NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION
Published August 1970
VOL. 19 PROJECT STATUS REPORT JULY 1970.
'
AS-306
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A5-307
ANNEX A (Cont•d)
This extract in Appendix A described in chronicle form the management
response to potential financing problems on the Churchill Falls Power
Project. It led to the intense activity of the professional task force
mobilized by Acres Canadian Bechtel of Churchill Falls, the joint venture
put together to provide Engineering and Management of Construction for The
Owners. The task force was established to carry forward the assistance to
management required by McParland to secure the high degree of confidence
required for the overall project financing plan.
The review and comprehensive study referred to in the extract was brought
together in some 16 volumes of Bond Offering Support Documents.
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P.O.S. REVIEWED BY
A.P.A. AND FINANCIAL
ADVISORS
JAN 80
INPUTS FROM:
TECHNICAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
ECONOMIC
MARKETING
FINANCIAL
INSURANCE
TRANSPORTATION
LABOR
TAX
LEGAL
POLITICAL
,....__--
~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------~ I I
: I TECHNICAL I I MARKETING I INSURANCE I I LABORj LEGAL I :
I INPUTS FROM STUDY I
TEAM AND OTHER ~--...,
I AUTHORITIES I ENVIRONMENTAL I I ECONOMIC I I FINANCIAL I I TRANSPORTATION J TAX POLITICAL l :
i I L--------------------------1--------+-----+------l----+------+------+-------t---1-·--+------4----'
DECISIONS
REACHED ON
OVERVIEW CONTENT
PREPARE TOPICAL REPORTS
FOR MANAGEMENT I FINANCIAL CONSIDERATION
JUN'SO TO DEC'SI
PREPARE
PROJECT OVERVIEW
FIRST
PROJECT OVERVIEW
AVAILABLE FOR
COMMENT
MAR'80 SEPT'80
SUBSEQUENT
PROJECT OVERVIEW
REPORTS ISSUED
AT APPROXIMATELY
SIX MONTH INTERNALS
~~~~E~TA~~N~E~~~ERING t----[BON-D ~N-DE-RW-R-ITE-RS-, M-AN-AG-ER-, -----
DOCUMENTS PREPARE FOR ISSUE
------------------
SECOND
PROJECT OVERVIEW
AVAILABLE FOR
COMMENT
APR'SI \
\ THIRD
PROJECT OVERVIEW
AVAILABLE FOR
COMMENT
DEC'81
~-----------------------------------
DRAFT SUPPORT DOCUMENTATION
FOR BOND OFFERING SUPPORT
L----------:----~---:----------....;...._ - - - - - -
MAR 1 81 TO JUL' 82. AND CONTINUING
FINAL DOCUMENTATION FOR
LICENSE APPLICATION IS
ASSEMBLED AND APPLICATION
IS FILED WITH FERC
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
Annr~ SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT l:h"'L 1-------------t ~U PLAN OF STUDY
PROJECT OVERVIEW
FOURTH :J
AVAILABLE FOR
COMMENT
JUL '82.
LOGIC DIAGRAM
PROJECT FINANCING
PROJECT• PLATE
p 5477.00 Tll.l
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TASK 12: PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
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A5 ... 308
A.5.13 -TASK 12: PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAM
(i) Task Objectives
To keep the public fully informed of plans, progress, and findings
associated with conduct of the detailed feasibility study, and to
provide a means whereby the public (including individuals, public
and private organizations, and various government agencies) can
influence the course of the work.
(ii) Task Output
Outputs of the public participation program will include:
Transcripts of public meetings, together with subsequent written
comments and proposed action lists derived from public inputs
Monthly progress reports published and distributed widely
Film clips and recordings for release to the news media and for
subsequent historical record
Minutes of workshop meetings (to be made available upon request
at the cost of reproduction and mailing)
Minutes of deliberations of external environmental and
engineering boards (to be made available upon request at the
cost of reproduction and mailing)
Progress report brochure to be published and distributed in
advance of the January 1981 public meeting
Written responses to individual letters of inquiry addressed to
the project information office
(iii) List of Subtasks
12.01 Operate Information Office
12.02 Conduct Public Meetings
12.03 Conduct Workshops
12.04 Prepare, Publish, and Distribute Information Materials
12.05 Prepare and Maintain Action List
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
The logic diagram at Plate T12.1 provides a broad overview of the
manner in which the public participation program will be conducted.
In general, this program has been constructed to provide a series
of iterations which are structured for feedback. Plate T12.2
illustrates the process. On a continuous basis throughout the
course of the work, information regarding progress, preliminary
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A5-309
findings, and plan rev1s1ons will be published; comments will be
sought; action lists incorporating issues and concerns will be
prepared; the plan of study will be updated; and a new informa-
tion publication will be triggered--thus completing the loop.
External engineering and environmental boards will provide an
independent review as well as a recourse in the event that the
consultant•s proposed actions or actual efforts are perceived as
unresponsive to expressed concerns. Detailed descriptions of
individual subtasks are contained in succeeding paragraphs.
•
AS-310
Subtask 12.01 -Operate Information Office
(a)
(b)
Objective
Provide a
provide a
comments,
scheduled
Approach
central point for public access to project information;
coordinating agency for processing information requests,
and objections; and provide positive control for meeting
information milestones.
As soon as work commences on the feasibility study, an information
office will be opened and a public information project officer will
be designated. The effort will demand the full time services of the
information officer throughout the period during which the study is
conducted as well as require administrative support and the part time
assistance of others as the work progresses. By providing this vital
link between the public and the study team, we expect to ensure that
all inquiries are answered, that no comments are ignored, and that an
aggressive information program is carried out.
It will be the duty of the information officer as well to make admini-
strative arrangements for other information activities (e.g., acquiring
suitable meeting places for public meetings, arranging for verbatim
transcripts, processing written comments, etc.).
(c) Discussion
Experience has shown that the typical professional engineer is reluc-
tant to subject his preliminary findings to public scrutiny (and
possibly criticism) until he has gathered all of the data he believes
is necessary and has checked and daub 1 e checked his results. The
existence of an information office and the designation of an informa-
tion officer will provide a means for the public to be kept abreast of
what is transpiring as well as what is planned. Daily contact with
various project personnel will allow the information officer to dis-
charge his duties properly as well as free the engineers and the
environmental scientists to concentrate their attention on the skills
at which they are most adept.
It is highly probable that periods of frenetic activity will occur as
the information program is carried out. On such occasions, we antic-
ipate seeking the assistance of additional locally hired staff to
augment the normal information staff.
Coordination on a regular basis with agencies charged by statute or
by executive order with direct involvement, or with organizations such
as bulk recipients and distributors of electric power, will generally
be accomplished directly at the appropriate action level without
intervention or involvement of the information office. Even so, the
information officer will be expected to assume the role of expediter in
any case where it comes to his attention that required coordination is
not being accomplished •
~--------~----------------------------------------------------------~
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) .........•........••••...•• $333,300
Total Subtask 12.01 .•...............•.••..••• 5333,300
(e) Schedule
Entire study period.
A5-311
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A5-312
Subtask 12.02-Conduct Public Meetings
(a) Objective
Provide widely publicized opportunities, scheduled in advance in con-
venient locations, for presenting information to the public, soliciting
their comments and concerns, addressing their questions, and involving
them in the work; establish an official record of these public partic-
ipation milestones as the basis for subsequent identification of
specific actions to be incorporated into follow-on work; and offer the
benefit of public reactions to the views of independent external
environmental and engineering boards who will have reviewed the recom~
mendations of the project managers at crucial milestones.
(b) Approach
Public meetings will be scheduled for three important decision
points:
(I) Near the start of the work so that the public may be informed
of the plan of study and afforded an opportunity to comment on
it.
(2) After one year•s work has been completed, at which time sufficient
data will be available to permit recommendations as to whether to
proceed. At this point, the public will have available for
consideration a river basin plan, a comprehensive alternatives
study, a progress report on all study work completed to date, and
an updated plan for work to be undertaken in succeeding years.
(3) After preliminary findings have been developed and initial drafts
of all exhibits to be submitted with license application to the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have been prepared.
At each of the above milestones, three separate public meetings will
be held in a two week period--one each at Anchorage, Fairbanks, and
Talkeetna. Information to be addressed at each of the meetings will
be made available at conveniently accessible points (e.g., public and
school libraries) or at cost to those who wish to acquire personal
copies. In each case, brochures summarizing progress, future plans,
and problem areas will be prepared and distributed free of charge.
A comment period of 15 days will be established so that written com-
ments received during that interval can be incorporated in verbatim
transcripts. (Note that the 15 day period does not in any way limit
public comment throughout the course of the work. Indeed, the informa-
tion office will receive and acknowledge written and oral inputs
throughout the entire study period, and will coordinate the preparation
of entries on action lists.) The value of the relatively brief period
for response to the public meeting lies in making transcripts available
as early as possible and distributing them for consideration prior to
the next workshop (scheduled within a few months of each public
meeting).
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A5-313
(c) Discussion
The value and complexity of the proposed project as well as its
location necessarily demand thorough--and almost inevitably,
voluminous--reports, calculations, data tabulations, and the like.
While such information will be made available for public scrutiny each
time a reasonably separable package has been prepared, it is unlikely
that the average concerned citizen will have the time or the education
and experience to read and digest all of it. The public meeting
affords an opportunity for every citizen to learn of what is planned
and what has transpired, as well as to offer comment, advice, and/or
criticism in a public forum. To be sure, public meetings are generally
too large (and too diverse in interests represented) to make them
efficient vehicles for hammering out compromises and courses of action
which best meet study objectives while simultaneously addressing key
issues raised by conflicting interests. We anticipate satisfying the
latter need in part by scheduling and conducting workshops.
The meeting will be conducted in each case by a key member of the Acres
organization (usually the project manager or the study director). A
panel including a representative of each of the companies forming a
part of the Acres team as well as one or more employees of the Alaska
Power Authority will be available so that certain questions and
concerns can be addressed at the meeting itself.
Public meetings are designed to be just what their name implies--an
opportunity for the public to become aware of and involved in the work.
In a sense, they are primarily geared toward the needs of individuals,
though no attempt will be made to stifle the inputs of organizations or
agencies. While public inputs during the meeting and subsequent
written comment periods are likely to include significant numbers of
expressions of concurrence or of opposition, the results will not be
regarded as a vote. Even so, summary records of the range of reactions
will be maintained as a part of the record for later consideration
during FERC hearings and interventions (if the latter occurs).
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $57,800
Preparation and Participation (R&M) •••••.•••••• 7,000
Preparation and Participation (FMA) ••.••••••••• 7,000
Preparation and Participation (TES) •••••.•••••• 7,000
Preparation and Participation (WCC) •••..••••••• 7,000
Preparation and Participation (CIRI) ••••••••••• 7,000
Liaison and Review (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••• 2,000
Total Subtask 12.02 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $94,800
(e) Schedule
Weeks 4 to 6; 52 to 54; 120 to 122
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AS-314
Subtask 12.03 -Conduct Workshops
(a) Objectives
Provide scheduled opportunities for discussion, coordination, achieving
appropriate and acceptable compromises, and in general addressing the
needs of organizations and agencies having particularly strong
interests in the course of the work; provide the vehicle for inputs and
advice from particularly knowledgeable representatives of special
interest groups, as well as an opportunity for dialogue not so readily
available at public meetings; and provide the public a chance to
observe the face to face encounters and the discussions occurring at
workshop sessions.
(b) Approach
A total of eight workshops are planned, six of which are scheduled in
advance and two of which are reserved to address issues of oppor-
tunity. Each such session may last three days or more and may be
divided into a series of subsessions so that time can be set aside for
addressing the special interests of certain groups.
While it is clear that special workshop interests necessarily include
those of the utilities in the Southcentral Railbelt, state and federal
agencies charged with regulation and preservation associated with the
project, native villages whose lands or livelihood will be impacted,
and certain environmental organizations, it is also true that the
productivity and advantages of workshop sessions deteriorate rapidly as
the number of participants increases beyond a dozen or so. We propose
to recommend a manageable number of organizations to APA based upon an
attempt to identify interests most clearly and substantively impacted
by the project. (In this regard, for example, we would choose a
recognized environmental organization operating in Alaska and concerned
specifically about project impacts as they directly affect the Alaskan
environment and the Alaskan quality of life over a national environ-
mental organization whose objectives may be oriented toward 11 national 11
interests and whose representatives have not lived in and may seldom
visit the State).
Observation is possible. Even so, oral comments and suggestions from
individual observers in attendance will not be solicited during any
session. Forms will be available, however, for attendees to express
their views.
Subsequent to each workshop, minutes of the meetings will be prepared
and published, and action lists will be updated to account for agree-
ments reached during the session as well as to reflect important inputs
from various observers.
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AS-315
(c) Discussion
Whereas public meetings (Subtask 12.02) were described as responsive to
the participation needs of individuals, the workshop sessions are
designed to satisfy group or agency participation needs. The diffi-
culty comes, of course, in selection of proper participating groups.
We will make recommendations in this regard, but the choice is properly
one for the State of Alaska. Thus we will rely on APA as the arbiter
in the event that any interested organization seeks recourse from
proposed exclusion.
There is some slight danger that exposing workshop sessions to public
view may inhibit participants and keep them from 11 letting their hair
down. 11 In ba 1 ance, though, we regard the pub 1 i c • s right to know as the
more important consideration and our costs are derived on the assump-
tion that reasonably large facilities will be required and that a
substantial number of interested persons will observe and will express
views on the forms to be provided.
By regularly scheduling most of the workshops, we hope to ensure that
surprises are avoided and that both the team and sub-session partic-
ipants are kept fully aware of each other•s progress. Given the sheer
magnitude of the work, though, it is entirely possible that unforeseen
events of great consequence for the proposed project will occur. Two
workshops are included in the estimated costs to account for our
perception that certain important new issues will need to be addressed
when they arise rather than at a future scheduled meeting.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••••••••• $41,800
Preparation and Participation (R&M) •••••••• 11,500
Preparation and Participation (FMA)........ 5,800
Preparation and Participation (TES) •••••••• 11,500
Preparation and Participation (WCC) •••.•••• 11,500
Preparation and Participation (CIRI) ••••••• 5,800
Liaison and Review (Acres) ••••••••••••••••• 4,300
Total Subtask 12.03 ••••••••••••••••••.••••• $92,200
(e) Schedule
Weeks 18, 32, 47, 58, 72, 89, 106.
Two additional weeks to be scheduled during the course of the study.
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AS-316
Subtask 12.04-Prepare, Publish, and Distribute Information Materials
(a) Objective
Ensure project information is made available on a regular and conve-
nient basis; make explicit provisions for commitment of resources in
support of a strong and aggressive public participation program; and
support the assemblage of a proper historical record of the sequence of
events leading to license application, and, if results so indicate, to
eventual design, construction, and operation of a hydroelectric
plant(s).
(b) Approach
This subtask will be undertaken through use of innovative multi-media
coverage under the direction of an information officer whose duties
will include management of a strong information program. Specific
efforts include, but are not limited to, preparation, publication, and
appropriate distribution of the following:
(I) Final approved plan of study.
(2) Periodic film clips of "as is" conditions in Susitna basin,
alternative sites and/or examples for electric power generation,
public meetings and workshops in progress, field investigations,
and the like.
(3) Transcripts of all public meetings.
(4) Minutes of workshop meetings.
(5) Monthly progress reports.
(6) Information brochures and pamphlets.
(7) Basin development plan.
(8) Alternatives plan.
(9) Action lists, together with notes as to status of pending
actions.
(10) Draft preliminary findings.
(11) Audio and video recordings.
(12) News releases.
(13) Minutes of external board deliberations.
(14) Acknowledgements of written correspondence.
(15) Displays to be set up and periodically updated, regularly rotated
from one location to another.
Although the information officer will manage publication and distribu-
tion, actual preparation will be undertaken by the appropriate team
member responsible for technical details, or in the case of special
facilities or capabilities for films and recordings, by subcontract to
Alaskan business.
The costs of such an extensive effort are not inconsequential. Thus,
distribution categories will be established along certain broad lines:
Extensive distribution, free to the public, of summary data such as
infbrmation brochures and pamplets.
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AS-317
Wide distribution of bulky or voluminious materials (such as basin
plan, alternative study) to strategically located information
centers (e.g., libraries). Requests for individual copies will be
fulfilled at cost.
Pinpoint target distribution of materials for publication by others
(newspaper, magazines, etc.), at no cost to the recipient.
Satisfaction of information requests at cost for various inter-
mediate reports and data collections not normally routinely
distributed.
We anticipate awarding one or more subcontracts (for printing and
binding information materials) on a competitive basis to Alaskan firms
exclusively (unless no capacity is available in Alaska at the time a
subcontract is advertised).
(c) Discussion
A key element in the entire information publication process is timeli-
ness. Thus, it will be important to ensure pertinent materials are
available sufficiently far in advance of various meetings and workshops
to permit review prior to the event.
Our plans to put the entire public participation program in the hands
of a single manager and to deal exclusively with locally available
subcontractors for logistical support of the program will contribute
to our successful satisfaction of the timely distribution problem.
To maximize coverage without incurring unreasonable costs, we intend to
opt for austere standards. In this regard, for example, covers (where
needed) will be paper; colors will not be used except where necessary
for clarity of a particular map or figure; volumes will be stapled
rather than spiral bound or glued, and a variety of similar restric-
tions will be enforced.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••.•••••••••••••••••••••• $74,500
Total Subtask 12.04 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $74,500
(e) Schedule
Throughout project period.
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Subtask 12.05 -Prepare and Maintain Action List
(a) Objective
Provide a positive system for ensuring all issues are addressed; permit
up-to-date status reports on progress and procedures for addressing
issues; and ensure that all necessary actions arising from the public
participation program are assigned by name to team members.
(b) Approach
Subsequent to the first public meeting, all comments will be reviewed
and a list will be drawn up in the form of individual actions sought
by the public. The project manager will review the list and will mark
certain actions as inappropiate for further pursuit, together with a
brief note explaining why the requested action was recommended for
rejection.
The action list will then be completed to include, for each approved
action, a control number to facilitate computer tracking, the name of
the team member responsible for carrying it out, cost and schedule
implications (if any), and a target date for completion. Once the list
has been completed, it will be reviewed by APA, who will accept the
recommendations of the project manager or revise the list as appro-
priate. Additional columns on action list printouts will be available
to indicate status, to permit recording remarks, and to indicate the
number of times the particular action has been requested by various
members of the public.
The action list will be updated on a regular basis after each succeed-
ing workshop or public meeting, or more often if significant numbers of
substantive comments are received in the information office.
Because we intend to maintain the action file in an automated system,
it will be possible at any time to print out information on any action
whenever required; to furnish a complete action list--including a
record of actions not recommended for further pursuit; and to regularly
call out the list of all actions whose status is not on schedule.
(c) Discussion
Assuming our study plan is a good one (and we are convinced that it
is ), it is logical to assume that most requested actions will already
have been provided for.
In such cases, of course, neither cost nor schedule impacts will
accrue and the remarks column of the action list will note that the
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A5-319
necessary work is already planned. Even so, a public participation
effort is specifically designed to ensure that individual concerns are
considered--and it follows that some new ideas, real concerns or
innovative approaches will be earmarked for consideration.
We suggest that the proposed action list system is a positive means
for demonstrating to the public that their views are being carefully
considered and that public participation is not being regarded as a
necessary evil to which lip service must be paid.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $62,900
Total Subtask 12.05 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $62,900
(e) Schedule
Throughout project period.
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SUSITNA
INFORMATION
OFFICE IS
OPENED -SUSITNA FILMING BEGINS•
(FOOTAGE OF BASIN AS
IS, PUBi...IC MEETINGS,
INFORMAL COORDINATION ON
A CONTINUING BASIS IS
ACCOMPLISHED WITH STATE
AND FEDERAL AGENCIES,
UTILITIES, OTHERS AS
APPROPRIATE
EXTERNAL BOARDS (ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ENGINEERING) REVIEW
1---------------------------1~ TRANSMITTALS AS PRODUCED
BOARD DELIBERATIONS, ETC.)
AND CONSIDER PROBLEMS AS
THEY ARISE
STUDY COMMENCES
ACCORDING TO
POS AS MODIFIED
BY APA
POS IS
MOOIFIED TO
INCORPORATE
INDICATED
ACTIONS
-STUDY CONTINUES
ACCORDING TO
UPDATED PLAN
MONTHLY PROGRESS
REPORTS ARE
PUBLISHED FOR
OF STUDY PUBLIC CONSIDERATION
J WRITTEN ISSUES l-r----.~-,L-_A_RE __ R_E_C_E_IV_E_o ____ ~
POS IS PRINTED
AND AVAILABLE
FOR PUBLIC
REVIEW
DEC. BO
FIRST PUBLIC
MEETINGS
o PRESENT POS
• INVITE COMMENT
FEB. BO
___r ORAL ISSUES I
~L__A_R~E __ T_R_A_N~S_C_R_IB_E_Dr-~
ISSUES ARE
CONVERTED TO
ACTION LIST
TRANSCRIPT AND
PROPOSED ACTION
LIST IS PUBLISHED
WORKSHOP I
o PRESENT ACTION
LIST
o SEEK ADVICE
o IWITE COMMENT
ttoAY eo
APA APPROVAL
IS RECEIVED IF
ACTION CHANGES
COST OR SCHEDULE
A
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PUBLICATION AND
DISTRIBUTION OF
CD BASIN DEVELOPMENT
PLAN
4 ® ALTERNATIVES PLAN
@ PROGRESS REPORT
BROCHURE
DEC. BO
SECOND PUBLIC
MEETINGS
o REPORT PROGRESS
o PRESENT UPDATED
PDS
o PRESENT BASIN PLAN
o PRESENT
ALTERNATIVES
STUDY
JAN. 81
INFORMATION OPPORTUNITIES
ARE EXPLOITED AS THEY
ARISE, INCLUDING
o SPEAKERS FURNISHED TO
INTERESTED GROUPS
o PRESS CONFERENCES WHEN
REQUESTED BY THE PRESS
AND/OR WHEN IMPORTANT
INFORMATION COMES TO
LIGHT
WORKSHOP 4
o REPORT PROGRESS
o SEEK ADVICE
o INVITE COMMENT
MAY81 ~-
WORKSHOP 5
o REPORT PROGRESS
o SEEK ADVICE
o INVITE COMMENT
SEPT. 81 WORKSHOP 2 I
o REPORT PROGRESS •
• SEEK ADVICE I
Au:.~::ITEL cow"oNT _cp_AI..-..J...I.--..
WORKSHOP 3
o REPORT PROGRESS
"\1
APA BOARD AND D.C. TASK
FORCES MEET FORMALLY
TO CONSIDER RECOMMENDING
DECISION TO PROCEED
--
NOTES' EACH WORKSHOP SHALL INCLUDE TIMES SET ASIDE FOR FORMAL SEPARATE
DISCUSSIONS WITH (i) UTILITIES, ® INTERESTED STATE AND FEDERAL
AGENCIES, @NATIVE VILLAGES WHOSE LANDS OR LIVELIHOOD· WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE PROPOSED PROJECT, AND @) INTERESTED ORGANIZATIONS. WORKSHOPS MAY BE
OBSERVED BY THE PUBLIC.
o SEEK ADVICE
o INVITE COMMENT
NOV. BO FEB. Bl
EXTERNAL BOARDS
(ENVIRONMENTAL AND
ENGINEERING) FORMALLY
CONVENE TO CONSIDER
PROGRESS TO DATE
PRIOR TO PUBLIC
MEETINGS
WORKSHOPS 7 AND 8
SCHEDULE AS REQUIRED TO
ADDRESS IMPORTANT UNFORESEEN
ISSUES.
DRAFT PRELIMINARY
FINDINGS ARE
PUBLISHED AND
DISTRIBUTED
A
WORKSHOP 6
o REPORT PROGRESS
o SEEK ADVICE
• INVITE COMMENT
JAN. 82
'---
-
A
A
I NEW ISSUES ~
ARE IDENTIFIED
L-----------1
ACTION LIST J
IS UPDATED
L---------'
APA APPROVAL
IS RECEIVED FOR
CHANGES TO COST
OR SCHEDULE
POS IS
MODIFIED
THIRD PUBLIC
MEETINGS
OREPORT PRELIM.
CHANGES ARE }-
MADE AS
APPROPRIATE
~ -t
____.f COMMENTS ARE
-IL-~A~DD~R_E~s_s_E_D ____ ~
COMMENTS NOT
ACCEPTED ARE
ASSEMBLED FOR
BOARD REVIEW
ISSUES TO BE
ADDRESSED IN
LATER STAGES
ARE IDENTIFIED
FINDINGS 1--------___JI'"I--'-------'1 "'----'
OINVITE RESPONSE
APR.82
> EXTERNAL BOARDS
(ENVIRONMENTAL AND
E~GINEERING) MEET TO
PROVIDE FINAL REVIEW
OF FINDINGS.
JUN. 82
FINAL DOC~MENTATION FOR
LICENSE APPLICATION IS
ASSEMBLED AND APPLICATION
IS FILED WITH FERC
JUL.82
•
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
IPOW SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT HU,IUl 1---......:::::::::.:..:.=_:_:_:_PL.:::A:.:..:N::O:=F=-:...:S..:.:TU:.:..:D:_Y:...:..:..::...:..=~-~
LOGIC DIAGRAM --
PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PLAN
-::~ ::£~~~~~ ~~ .. ,.,,~"'"",...P_5_4_7_7. ___ o_o ______ -t
PLATE• Tl2.1
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PLAN
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PUBLISH
INFORMATION
COMPETENT
REVIEW
PREPARE
ACTION
LIST
SEEK
COMMENT
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
110 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
It-------~
PLAN OF STUDY
FEEDBACK PROVISIONS--
PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PLAN
PROJECT: PLATE
p 5477.00 Tl2.2 ACRES AMERICAN INCORPORATED
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TASK 13: ADMINISTRATION
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AS-320
A.5.14 -TASK 13: ADMINISTRATION
(i) Task Objectives
To develop for the Acres Team plans, policies and procedures that
will set forth the basic scheme for accomplishing the POS.
(ii) Task Output
The following documents, reports, manuals, etc. will be produced as
-' a result of this task:
•
-Division of Responsibilities Manual
-Financial Control Procedures
-Project Master Schedule
--Updates produced as required
-Schedule Control System
--Periodic reporting to management
-Cost Control Manual
--Periodic reporting to management
-Manpower Loading Schedule
--Updated as appropriate
-Accounting Policies and Procedures Manual
--Payroll reports
--Accounts payable reports
--Job cost reports
-Documentation Control System Manual
(iii) List of Subtasks
Corporate
13.01-Prepare Division of Responsibility Manual
13.02 -Develop Financial Control Procedures
Control
Prepare
Develop
Project
13.03 -
13.04
13.05
13.06
13.07
-Develop
-Prepare
-Develop
Documentation
System
Project Master Schedule
Schedule Control System
Cost Control System
Manpower Loading Schedule
Accounting Policies and Procedures
13.08 -Prepare Documentation Control System
(iv) Subtask Scope Statewents
Administrative procedures will be identified and developed to form
the elements of the project control system that will provide manage-
ment visibility and control of the planning, data gathering, design,
engineering, and, finally, license application, portions of this
POS. Preparation of documentation control procedures will assure
that the information so valuable to completion of the POS moves
smoothly and reliably •
~----------------------------------------------------------~
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A5 ... 321
Subtask 13.01 -Prepare Division of Responsibilities Manual
(a) Objective
Establish the basic "How we will work" rules for the duration of the
POS.
(b) Approach
Acres/Moolin corporate level personnel will prepare and review all
input to this manual including:
-Project responsibility matrix
-Organization charts
-Approval authorities
-Specific duties and responsibilities of individuals/organizations
-Description of control systems and how they will be used
-Correspondence procedures
We will draw upon a depth of expertise within both organiations that
has been gained on other similar projects to produce a valuable
working tool.
(c) Discussion
Obviously, it is extremely important to establish early in the
project, the basic documents that will be used to chart the course of
the project and provide a basis for future strategy and policy
decisions. The remoteness and sensitivity of the prime work location
require that these policies and procedures be clearly understood by
all field personnel in order that the work effort be advanced in a
timely and cost effective manner.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres)
Task Force (FMA) •••••••••••••••••••••
$1,500
1,800
Total Subtask 13.01 •••••••••••••••••• $3,300
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 2
AS-322
Subtask 13.02 -Develop Financial Control Procedures
(a)
(b)
Objective
Develop and document the procedures used to pay the project costs and
to establish budgetary control procedures.
Approach
Acres/Moolin will work directly with the appropriate APA personnel in
order that an agreed upon plan for handling these procedures be pre-
pared early in the project. The following subjects will be addressed:
-Funding of engineer
--Cash advances
--Zero balance bank accounts
-Paying project costs
--By advances or zero balance accounts
--Directly by APA after verification
-Budget control
Original estimates
--Basis for making budget rev1s1ons
--Budget change procedures
(c) Discussion
It is important to recognize that the difficult site conditions may
well lead to severe constraints on the field data gathering opera-
tions. The possibility of expanded/revised investigative requirements
that may be imposed, either by design or other outside influences
(APA, Federal, environmental), should also be understood. It is
important that clear procedures be in force to handle such eventuali-
ties.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••.•••••
Task Force ( FMA) •••••••.•••••••••••••
$2,200
2,200
Total Subtask 13.02 •••••••••••••••••• $4,400
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 4
•~-----------------
AS-323
Subtask 13.03 -Prepare/Update Project Master Schedule
(a)
(b)
Objective
Establish and monitor the POS schedule showing the relative schedules
of all functional areas/organizations.
Approach
Each company within the Acres Team will be responsible for the identi-
fication and scheduling of all the necessary tasks/subtasks to com-
plete the project in accordance with the overall objectives. Each of
these individual schedules will then be consolidated into a tentative
Project Master Schedule, the basis of which is presented in this POS
as Plate A7.1 and A7.2. The schedule will be presented in two
separate forms:
-Bar chart format
--Showing relation to progress for each individual subtask
--Indicating dates of critical milestones/decisions
-Time based logic diagram showing:
Decision milestones
Report submissions
License applications
Key meetings
Special presentations
As final reviews by APA and others dictate changes to the master
schedule, it will be updated to reflect these changes. Also, the
Project Master Schedule will be updated throughout the life of the
project to reflect the completion of the various stages of the project
and the possible changes required by early completion dates, slippages
and other situations/constraints.
A computerized scheduling system will be empl eyed for schedule control
purposes. This system will be that presented in Part C3 of the POS or
similar.
(c) Discussion
Adequate identification of the complete scope of work and a thorough
understanding of potential constraints are the key elements to estab-
lishing a realistic schedule. For the purposes of this POS, it has
been assumed that the majority of the work effort will be directed
towards eventual construction of Watana and Devil Canyon dams. This
seems a likely probability, however, unforeseen events may expand the
scope of work at either of these two sites or even require additional
work at alternate sites. Although these occurrences cannot be pre-
dicted with any accuracy and thus not scheduled, there are a number of
11 fall-back 11 positions that will be developed to ensure a timely com-
pletion of the work. Many of these problems can be handled by early
identification of additional/alternate personnel and equipment, larger
or alternate camp facilities, expansion of 11 off-season 11 operations,
where possible, etc.
•~----------------~
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $1,700
Task Force (FMA) ••••••••••••••••••••• 1,700 ·
Total Subtask 13.03 •••••••••••••••••• $3,400
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 4 (Initial review)
Continuous update as required
AS-324
-
~
I
Subtask 13.04 -Develop Schedule Control System
(a) Objective
A5-325
Identify the necessary parameters, establish information gathering
systems and reporting methods to eliminate or minimize schedule slip-
pages.
(b) Approach
Acres and Moolin personnel will work jointly to accomplish the follow-
ing tasks leading up to a working schedule control system:
-Each discreet activity will be entered into a weighted percent
complete reporting system
A baseline schedule for each category of work showing percent
complete versus time will be prepare
-Data gathering procedures and reporting formats and levels will be
identified
-Programs will be developed to:
--Pinpoint and analyze all schedule slippage areas
--Determine potential impact of slippages
--Recommend corrective actions
--Forecast anticipated completion dates
--Perform regular reviews with management
(c) Discussion
Schedule control requires an accurate and timely reporting of data and
the timely and committed review of data by those personnel responsible
for control. The Acres/Moolin team have a great deal of experience in
this regard, both in the planning of other large hydroelectric pro-
jects, and in remote, arctic environments. The ability to identify
schedule problems early in the game has been demonstrated on projects
of equal or greater complexity.
As in the actual schedule preparation phase, it is the constraints
that must be identified, and identified early, by working directly
with government agencies and others, to successfully control sched-
ules. These agencies and others must be willing to participate,
accept and commit themselves to this effort. In addition, the cost
and benefits of constraints must be developed to allow senior APA and
government officials to make rational go/no-go decisions.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (FMA) •••••••••••••••••••••
Initial
$ 2,000
2,200
Total Subtask 13.04 •••••••••••••••••• $ 4,200
(e) Schedule
Ongoing
$ 31,000
31,000
$ 62,000
~~~~~~~~~--We-ek-s2-t-hr-ou-gh-12-5----------------------~
AS-326
Subtask 13.05 ~ Develop Cost Control System
(a) Objective
(b)
Develop the necessary management tools and control systems for moni-
toring, reporting and control of project costs.
Approach
The cost control system will be developed using the expertise of both
Acres and Moolin personnel. Proven methods used on similar projects
will be employed to ensure that a workable, unencumbered system is
established. The follm-1ing steps will be necessary:
Establish cost control centers. The work effort will be broken down
into various elements, each of which will be controlled by a single
manager/supervisor. This manager/supervisor will ultimately be
responsible for all costs incurred in his area of responsibility.
Establish a project Code of Accounts. This will be the lowest level
of detail utilized by the cost and schedule control system. The
Code of Accounts will allo1t1 easy identification and isolation of
each basic work element.
- A cost estimate, based upon the cost estimates for each individual
task/subtask, will be prepared for each cost center.
-Data gathering systems and reporting formats and levels will be
established. Both manhours and dollars expended will be reported
for the control period and the total to date. Completion costs will
be forecasted and projected overruns/underruns will be tabulated.
- A program will be developed to:
Identify and analyze all cost overrun areas
Recommend corrective actions to eliminate or minimize cost
overruns
Forecast total costs and potential scope of overruns
Regularly review with management all cost reports, analyses and
recommendations
(c) Discussion
The cost center concept is a valid one and has been used successfully
on other similar projects. The success of the program depends to a
great extent upon the participation, acceptance and commitment of
those managers/supervisors identified as having cost center responsi-
bilities. It requires a careful selection of personnel to ensure that
costs are controlled. Many qualified personnel exist within the
Acres/Moolin team who are familiar with this concept.
~~----------------~
[ij]
A5-327
The main center will be established at Acres head office in Buffalo
where established in-house project cost-control systems have been in
operation for many years. A secondary center will be established in
the proposed Acres' Anchorage office and appropriately linked with the
Buffalo center.
(d) Level of Effort
Initial
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••..••• $ 3,000
Task Force (FMA) ••••••••••••••••••••• 3,400
Total Subtask 13.05 ••••••••••••••.••• $ 6,400
(e) Schedule
Weeks 0 through 125
Ongoing
$ 73,000
73,000
$146,000
~------------------------------------------------------------------~
[ij]
AS-328
Subtask 13.06 -Prepare Manpower Loading Schedule
(a)
(b)
Objective
Establish a manpower requirements schedule for the duration of the
POS.
Approach
This schedule will be established to coordinate employment, support
services and equipment needs. As the manpower requirements for each
discrete element of work are identified, they will be consolidated,
based upon the Project Master Schedule, to produce a tabulation of
manpower requirements versus time and location. In addition, the
equipment needs to support the 1 evel of manpmver required wi 11 be
tabulated in a similar manner.
(c) Discussion
The Manpower Loading Schedule is a straightforward tabulation and will
be used primarily to determine the size and location of camps. How-
ever, camp size must include space not only for the engineers field
personnel, but also for management, government and transient person-
nel.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) ••••••••••••••••••• $ 500
Task Force (FMA) ••••••••••••••••••.•• 500
Total Subtask 13.06 •••••••••••••••••• $1,000
(e) Schedule
Weeks 3 through 4
~--------------------------------------------------------------------~
AS-329
Subtask 13.07 -Develop Accounting Policies & Procedures
(a)
(b)
Objective
Develop and implement the necessary accounting policies and procedures
to satisfy project requirements and support admi ni strati ve control
systems.
Approach
Acres and Moolin personnel will work together to identify the project
accounting requirements that will satisfy the needs of APA and other
agencies involved, project control, procurement and tax aspects of the
project. The input/output requirements will be identified and appro-
priate systems will be developed to provide the required output. Ten-
tatively, all activities occurring in Alaska, both in the field and
local project offices, will be processed by Acres• Anchorage office
personnel with the backup assistance of the offices of Frank Moolin &
Associates in Fairbanks and Acres• Buffalo facilities. Activities
occurring in the corporate/design offices of Acres American will be
handled by 11 in-house 11 computer capability in the Buffalo, New York
offices. Written accounting procedures will be prepared and issued as
soon as possible after contract award to cover the following areas:
-General accounting
-Accounts payable
-Billings
Invoicing
-Internal control
-Auditing
-Banking
-Expense accounts
(c) Discussion
Since much of the accounting input originates from remote field
locations, it will be imperative that timely and accurate transmittal
of data be maintained. It will be the responsibility of the individ-
ual field supervisors and the field project ~anager to review all
input prior to transmittal to the processing facility. It is impor-
tant that the field personnel be aware of the input requirements and
that they be committed to following through with this effort. Both
Acres and Moolin personnel have worked under similar circumstances
before and are familiar with these types of problems and how to cope
with them.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres) •••••••••••••••••••
Task Force (FMA) •••••••••••••••••••••
Initial
$ 9,000
5,000
Total Subtask 13.07 •••••••••••••••••• $14,000
(e) Schedule
~~~~~~~ Weeks 0 through 4 (Continuous update as required)
Ongoing
$ 20,000
35,000
$ 55,000
Subtask 13.08 -Prepare Documentation Control System
(a) Objective
AS-330
Establish the methods to be used throughout the project for transmit-
tal, storage, retrieval and display of all pertinent documentation.
(b) Approach
FERC license application and APA requirements will be used as guide-
1 ines to determine the documentation requirements. In addition, the
requirements of local, state and federal agencies will be included.
Finally, 11 in-house 11 document flow in support of design, cost and
schedule activities must be considered and accounted for. Filing
systems, records retrieval and a record storage system will be estab-
lished, along with orderly methods for flow/transmittal of both inter-
nal and external documentation and correspondence. Included with be a
tracking system to monitor the flow of documentation between field and
office locations.
(c) Discussion
Prior to preparation of FERC license application and the various
individual POS reports (power alternatives, development selections,
environmental, hydrological, etc), it is extremely important that a
system be implemented as early as possible to control and account for
the large volume of documentation that will be gathered. Particular
care and attention must be used when transferring documentation from
remote field locations to the central offices whre it will be reduced
and stored.
(d) Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres)
Task Force (FMA) •••••••••••••...•••••
$ 500
1,200
Total Subtask 13.08 •••••••••••••••••• $1,700
(e) Schedule
Weeks 8 through 9
r
., ___ ..::____ -,------------~---------~
<}JOST~LICENSE' APPLICATION.··
;SUBMfSSlON. ACTlVlTIES
,.·
SECTION A6 -POST-LICENSE APPLICATION
SUBMISSION ACTIVITIES
A6.1 -Introduction
The study activities detailed in Sections A1 through AS of this proposal
have been provided in accordance with the APA Request for Proposals dated
June 2S, 1979. APA have also requested a description and preliminary cost
estimate for activities which will follow submission of the license
application up to a point when the license is received and construction
work commences.
The Acres proposal is based on a preliminary assessment of the probable
sequence of construction of project components which in turn is based on
the Corps of Engineers• 1979 Report construction schedule. The first
construction contract will consequently be for the Watana diversion
facilities. Assuming no unforeseen, serious interventions occur during the
licensing process, the FERC license (which would allow construction to
commence) should be awarded by early 198S. Engineering work to that point
should therefore concentrate on design activities and preparation of bid
and contract documents leading to award of a diversion construction
contract immediately after receipt of the FERC license. Construction of
the pioneer access road to Watana should also be completed by 198S.
In this section of the proposal, summaries of activities to accomplish
these objectives are presented under the same general task headings
discussed in Sections A1 through AS.
No significant activity is anticipated under the following tasks:
Task 1: Power Studies
Task 8: Transmission
The following tasks will continue, but at a lower level of activity than
during the first phase:
Task 2:
Task 4:
Task 10:
Task 12:
Surveys and Site Facilities
Seismic Studies
Licensing
Public Participation
The remaining tasks will continue at a similar or increased level of
activity including:
Task 3:
Task 5:
Task 6:
Task 7:
Task 9:
Task 11:
Task 13:
Hydrology
Geotechnical Exploration
Design Development
Environmental Studies
Cost Estimates and Schedules
Marketing and Finance
Administration
~~----------------~
A6-2
The following discussion describes the anticipated activities that will be
undertaken during the period through commencement of construction of the
Watana project. Also provided are estimated level of effort costs for the
work to be completed.
The schedule associated with this work is shown on the Summary Schedule
(Plate A2.1) and on the Master Schedules (Plates A7.1 and A7.2).
A6.2-Surveys and Site Facilities
The permanent base camp at Watana will be used as the base from which
continued field studies in hydrology, geotechnical exploration, seismicity
and the environmental areas will be conducted. Detailed surveying of the
Watana site in support of Watana dam design activities will also be
continued. The temporary camp at Devil Canyon will probably be moth-balled
throughout this study phase. A description of these camps is contained in
Section A.4-Logistical Plan. A detailed list of equipment, most of which
will be used in conjunction with the field activities and thus located at
the base camp, is included in Section C.5.
During this phase, the airstrip at the \.Jatana site would -be upgraded to
support the level of activity required to complete the preliminary
engineering of the Watana facilities. At the same time, a pioneer access
road would be constructed utilizing portable or prefabricated bridges.
Additional activities conducted during this phase includes photogrammetric
mapping, hydrographic surveys, slope stability and erosion studies along
the road access route.
Level of Effort $4,600,000
(Not including the cost of the access road or demobilization of the Watana
camp.)
A.6.3 -Hydrology
Following submission of the FERC license application, work will continue on
obtaining hydrologic, hydraulic, ice and climate data. This information
will provide the input to further studies necessary to complete the
detailed project design and prepare contract documents and specifications.
The data will also be used to provide detailed information in response to
queries arising out of the FERC license application and to provide partial
basis for the final EIS.
A brief discussion of the additional work to be done is given below.
(a) Field Data Index and Distribution System
Work in this activity will continue as discussed under Task 3.
~~----------------~
(b)
(c)
A6-3
Field Data Collection and Processing
Work in this activity will continue as discussed under Task 3. It may
be possible to reduce the number of climatic stations during the later
years as sufficient design information is obtained, particularly along
the transmission line route.
Water Resources Studies
Utilizing the 2 to 3 years of additional data obtained from the exist-
ing and the new stream gauges, the streamflow extension studies will
be revised. The same methodology proposed for this activity under
Task 3 will essentially be used. The streamflow data obtained from
the sites will be used to improve the extrapolation of long-term
streamflow data to these sites.
The "Low-Flow Frequency Duration Analysis", "Reservoir Filling and
Operation Studies", and "Statistical Analysis of Pre-and Post-Project
Streamflow" analyses will be reviewed and, if necessary, repeated
utilizing the improved basic streamflow data and refined Watana
project layouts and construction schedules. The same basic methodol-
ogy as described under Task 3 activities will be employed. The
"Evaporation Studies" will be updated using the additional climatic
data cell ected.
(d) Flood Studies
The "Regional Flood Peak and Volume Frequency Analysis" will be
reviewed in the 1 ight of additional data. It is not anticipated that
additional analysis will be called for.
The "Probable Maximum Flood Determination" will be redone using a more
comprehensive methodology than originally employed by the Corps of
Engineers during Phase 1. A detailed storm maximization study will be
undertaken to determine the probable maximum precipitation. More
extensive meteorologic studies will be performed to improve the esti-
mates of maximum temperature sequence and snow depths.
Consideration will be given to recalibrating the SSARR river basin
model. However, should the studies in Subtask 3.05 indicate that
deficiencies in the model•s performance are due to inadequacies or
lack of detail in the model algorithms, a more sophisticated catchment
model such as the National Weather Services Flood Forecasting System
(incorporating either the Stanford or Sacram~nto Models) or HSP
(Hydrologic Simulation Package marketed by Hydrocomp Inc., California)
will be substituted. These better models offer an improved represen-
tation of the infiltration process and the subsurface water balance
which could be important in improving calibration results.
The "Reservoir Flood Routing" excercises will be repeated using the
revised flood data and Watana project layouts.
~~----------------~
(e)
A6-4
Hydraulic and Ice Studies
It is anticipated that the FERC will stipulate a significant amount of
engineering to be undertaken prior to commencement of construction of
the major project facilities. It may be possible to defer some of
these activities until after commencement of diversion construction.
However, the anticipated requirements are presented herein and
included in estimated costs.
Unless substantial changes to the hydrology, the basic project layouts
or system operating policies are made, it will not be necessary to
rerun the backwater calculations (HEC-2) and the ice cover process
model dynamic flow model downstream or upstream from the Watana site.
Additional refinement of the diversion design will, however, be
necessary. This wil1 require additional runs using HEC-2 and the ice
cover process model.
In addition to the above analyses, it will be necessary to undertake
further computer model studies as well as hydraulic model studies.
These include:
(i) Computer Model Studies
One-dimensional dynamic flow model -Applied to Susitna reach
downstream from damsite for
simulating dam break
conditions.
Two-or three-dimensional dynamic
flow model (numeric) or alterna-
tively an analytical solution
technique.
One-, two-and three-dimensional
water quality models
Reservoir sediment deposition
model
(ii) Hydraulic Model Studies
Diversion facilities (including
an ice cover)
-Applied to the proposed
reservoir to simulate
landslide induced surges.
Applied to the reservoir
and downstream channel
reaches to simulate water
quality changes.
-Applied to reservoir to
predict location of
sediment deposition (only
if required and considered
to be reliable).
-To refine design of
diversion facilities
(design for ice conditions
and erosion protection)
~~----------------~
Spillway
A6-5
To refine design of
spillway and plunge pool
facilities, determine
stage-discharge relation-
ships and minimize air
entrainment in plunge
poo 1 s.
Glacial studies may also have to be undertaken. If significant future
changes in the glacial regime are anticipated, a more intensive field
program .would be required to monitor these changes. If necessary,
project design and/or operation would have tope modified to suit the
predicted changes.
(f) Sediment Yield and River Morphology
The sediment yield and river morphology analysis undertaken under
Task 3 action will be reviewed and, if necessary, modified by
incorporating additional data.
(g) Access Road Studies
Additional hydraulic calculations will be undertaken to finalize the
dimension of all bridges and culverts.
(h) Level of Effort •••••.••••••.••••••••• $1,380,000
A6.4 -Seismicity Studies
The long-term seismic network designed under the pre-license application
phase will be installed and monitored and the data assembled and processed.
Level of Effort •••••••••••••••.•••••.•••••••• $750,000
A.6.5 -Geotechnical Exploration
Detailed drilling and in-situ permeability testing will be conducted at the
Watana site to improve delineation of the statigraphy and identify rock
properties both for dam foundations and underground powerhouses. This l'lill
include borehole photography and conventional downhole permeability
testing.
At the dam sites, pump tests will be conducted to determine accurately the
permeability of materials in the dam foundations. A more detailed drilling
program will be undertaken in the borrow areas to delineate approximately
three times the borrow materials required to provide alternatives and
contingencies. Sieve analysis, Atterburg limits and moisture profiles as
well as hardness tests for aggregates will be performed to identify
materials. Static and dynamic triaxial tests with pore pressure
measurements will be run on reconstituted samples to represent in place •~----------------~
A6-6
materials in the dam. In addition, constant mean normal stress triaxial
tests and resonant column tests will be performed to determine dynamic and
static elastic parameters.
Drilling programs in the borrow areas will be supplemented by seismic
surveys to delineate stratigraphy and provide a more complete picture.
Laboratory testing will be undertaken to evaluate dynamic soil properties
under simulated earthquake loading conditions.
Level of Effort •••••••••••••••••••••• $2,500,000
A6.6 -Design Development
The objective of project design development activities following submission
of the FERC license application is essentially to continue design
activities to the extent necessary for project construction to commence as
soon as possible after award of license. For the purposes of this POS, it
has been assumed that one site, probably Watana, will be developed first.
Thus activities during this period of approximately 2-1/2 years will be
devoted to design of the Watana Project, and the preparation of bid
documents and completion of the bidding process for the diversion system.
Responses to FERC requests for additional design data prior to award of
license will also be provided.
The design development concept during this period will essentially be
geared to the methods of construction and the contract packaging proposed
as a result of feasibility studies prior to license application. It is
most 1 i kely that contracts wi 11 be packaged in accordance with construct ion
schedule requirements over a period of some years. Thus, to minimize the
financial risks, preconstruction design development costs will be
appropriately spread over a period of more than 2-1/2 years, depending on
the recommended phasing of award of construction and equipment supply
contracts. The work that will be undertaken includes the following:
-Update of Design Criteria Manual
-Engineering support for construction of access roads
-Engineering studies, stability analyses, permafrost thaw analysis and
designs for excavation, rock support, foundation treatment, grouting,
drainage, embankment material sources and placement, steel and concrete
structures and mechanical and electrical equipment design and selection
for:
Dams
• Spillways
• Intakes
• Penstocks
• Surge tanks (if required)
Tail races
• Diversion facilities
Power facilities
• Switchyards
IIPD(QI ._ ____ ·_M_e_c_h_a_n-ic_a_l_/_e_l_e_c_tr_,_·c_a_l __ e-qu_,_·p_m_e_n_t------------------------------------~ HUH d . Reservoirs and site facilities
[i]
A6-7
During this .phase, studies for major dams and structures will include
determination of design aspects such as:
-geotechnical criteria with respect to other disciplines such as
hydraulic, civil and others
-design parameters from the assessment of the field and laboratory
investigation data
-appropriate analytical techniques to meet the design criteria for each
technical aspect of the design
(a) DamDesign
The major design effort will be on the dam and the diversion system.
The main design aspects to be considered include:
foundation and abutment conditions
-construction materials
-seismic effects
-dam sections
-cofferdams
-diversion tunnels
-permafrost studies
construction sequence and methods
The details that will be considered for the above aspects are as
follows:
(i) Foundation and Abutment Conditions
Depending on the extent of riverbed alluvium, excavation
requirements will be determined for the type of cutoff (total
or partial) and impervious blanket and other foundation
treatments. Excavation requirements will include removal of
loose alluvium and talus materials on the abutments.
Dewatering requirements during excavation will be determined
using field permeability values and field pump test data and
selection of primary and secondary wells.
The following studies will also be made:
-Seepage analyses for conditions during diversion and excava-
tion of the main dam
-Seepage through bedrock foundation and abutments with
consideration of permafrost zones thawed prior to impoundment
and thaw due to reservoir impoundments
-Grouting requirements in the foundation bedrock and abutments
and grouting methodology in cold weather including thaw
analysis
~----------------------------------------------------------~
[ii]
( i i)
A6-8
-Abutment shaping and bedrock stripping and treatment of
permafrost
Pressure relief in overburden and bedrock
Construction Materials
Further testing and evaluation of construction materials will
continue with respect to impervious and rock fills, to study
static and dynamic shear strength behavior and crushing
potential of rock fills under high confining dam loadings.
Studies related to placing constraints due to cold weather,
exploitation and hauling methods along with test fills will be
performed. Excess moisture contents in the impervious fills
and methods of handling will be determined.
Availability and adequacy of filter and drainage materials will
be confirmed. This aspect is particularly important as
unusually large zone thicknesses of such material will be
required for the earth/rockfill dam, as a defense against
seismic effects.
(iii) Seismic Effects
The seismic design in this phase will consider in detail the
following aspects:
-Review in detail the earthquake design spectrum, the
preliminary design and findings from prelicensing studies.
-Evaluation of the cyclic mobility and the liquefaction
potential of the foundation and embankment materials and
consider in detail the various alternative methods of
minimizing the damage associated with these problems.
-Evaluation of the potential for generation and dissipation of
pore water pressures in the embankment and foundation
materials and the possible loss of strength that may accrue
as a result of these pore pressures during and following an
earthquake. Dynamic analysis techniques will be used for the
evaluation and prediction of field performance.
-Finite element techniques will be employed to study the
dynamic response and the time history of stresses and
deformations. Nonlinear material properties and the
interaction between the dam and the reservoir will be given
adquate consideration.
-Selection of criteria for soil placement and improvement by
considering the stability and deformations during earthquake
loadings.
~----------------------------------------------------~
•
A6-9
-Provision of an adequate system of filter and transition
zones to ensure progressive erosion through continuous cracks
resulting from earthquake shaking can be minimized.
-Provision of wide cores with self-healing and erosion
resistant properties in the event cracking develops during an
earthquake.
Consideration of seismic effects into proper arrangement of
core, transition zones, filters and shells.
Based on the evaluation of engineering conditions of the rock, design
criteria will be established for rock excavation, rock reinformcement
and rock support systems. Grouting requirements to treat the mass
rock against seepage and uplift and the pressure relief requirements
will be determined.
(b) Powerhouse Design
Rock mechanics design activities will be undertaken to prepare a
semi-detailed design of the powerhouse caverns and to firm up the
location and alignment based on data obtained during exploration
activites.
(c) Other Design Activites
Spillway and intake structure will be founded on rock. The study will
involve detailed design treatment to provide rock support and pressure
relief systems to ensure stability of the structures. Rock slope
stability of the spillway foundation and side slopes will be assessed
in terms of the potential presence of weak zones of rock such as shear
zones and joint sets, for various loading conditions with and without
seismic effects.
Intake tunnel structures will involve evaluation of the structural
geology, such as faults, shear zones and joint sets in order to
establish the competency of the mass rock to support the gate
structures. The design will involve determination of consolidation
grouting, rock reinforcement, concrete lining, etc. The design of
intake structures will largely be governed by geologic and hydraulic
considerations.
Studies and designs of structures will be taken to the point of
producing drawings to sufficient detail for bid purposes.
(d) Bid Documents for Watana Diversion System
Bid documents for the Watana diversion system will be prepared and
issued on behalf of APA for bidding. These documents will include
specifications and drawings adequate for bidding purposes. Bids will
be evaluated and a recommendation made to APA for an award of the
contract to allow construction to commence on receipt of the FERC
license and other necessary permits •
Level of Effort ••••.•••••••••••••••••• $1,900,000
~----------------------------------------------------------~
A6-10
A6.7 -Environmental Studies
Subsequent to submission of the FERC license application Exhibit with
studies planned and initiated prior to license application submission must
be completed. The extended time period required for completion of some of
the environmental subtasks is due to one or more of the following reasons:
The required input to a specific environmental subtask must wait comple-
tion of other tasks such as surveys, hydrological studies, geotechnical
exploration or design development.
-The length of life cycle that should be observed for the environmental
element being studied is greater than the 30 months pre-license applica-
tion period, particularly anadromous fish and big game.
The activity to be completed is a slowly developing study that requires
longer time periods in order to obtain input from all relevant groups
such as archaeological digs.
-Input from FERC is desirable before the study is completed
-Some activities do not start until a license application is submitted,
i.e., response to interrogatory or preparation of testimony.
As a result the environmental study team anticipates work to continue on at
least the following subtasks into the post-license application phase of the
over a 11 project:
-completion of the Socioeconomic Analyses
final registration, documentation and field invesigation of
archaeological or historical resources
-completion of the land use analysis
-completion of the recreation plan development
-assessment of the finalized transmission corridor
completion of the fish, wildlife and plant ecological baseline studies
and impact analysis
Additional studies to be completed by the environmental study team in
support of FERC license would include:
-construction impact analysis
-operative impact analysis
-preparation of expert testimony and response to interrogatories
-preparation of ammendments to the Corps• approved EIS for the Susitna
Project
-Finally, completion and/or revision and amendment of FERC license
application exhibits.
Anticipated work effort on the above listed follow-on studies is discussed
in the following paragraphs. Unlike previous Tasks 3, 5, and 6, this task
will still be concerned with both the Watana and Devil Canyon sites.
~~----------------~
A6-11
(a) Land Use Analysis
During this phase the information that was generated in the pre-
license application phase will be refined with the focus on the lands
that have been determined to be directly impacted by the project.
~ This refinement will aim towards the elimination of data voids,
additional investigation of important leads, and the development of a
more detailed description of the impacted areas. Additional inter-
views and field reconnaissance will be conducted.
The primary emphasis of this phase will be the prediction and evalua-
tion of the impacts on current and future land use that would result
with the development of the project. This will involve an evaluation
of the future land use of the area with and without the proposed
project.
The magnitude, duration, and significance of the impacts will be
evaluated and discussed. The impacts will be evaluated for both the
construction and operation phases of the project. A discussion of
measures that could be used to mitigate the adverse effects will be
provided.
(b) Recreation Plan Development
The goal of the final recreational plan development process will be to
fully develop the initial recreation plan based on the perceptions of
the public, the limitations of the resources, the planning guidelines
of the managing agencies, and compatibility with the proposed opera-
tion of the project and other public uses of the land. It will be
recalled that an initial recreation plan was described in Task 10 -
Licensing.
The projections of participation at the area, and the determination of
the types of facilities that should be provided, will be based on an
analysis of all currently available information and data that is gen-
erated from a mail questionnaire, sent to the Anchorage and Fairbanks
areas. The questionnaire will be designed to study the perceptions of
the Anchorage-Fairbanks residents in terms of appropriate levels of
development, and their willingness to participate at varying levels.
This will provide an indication of the aggregate participation in the
varying levels of development, and a means of adjusting predicted
future participation.
The potentials of the resources, for providing recreation opportuni-
ties, will be evaluated to determine the su~tability of the resources
for use and the capabilities of the site for withstanding use. Most
recreation planning decisions relate to the development of access to
the area; consequently, the access road, types of facilities, and
level of development are critical decisions in encouraging specific
types of recreational opportunities and levels of development. There-
fore, the recreational opportunities to be provided will be determined
first, based on present user participation patterns and perceptions,
and then adjusted to fit the limitations of the resource base.
~~----------------~
A6-12
The plans developed will be evaluated according to the following
criteria:
(1) how well they meet program objectives;
(2) suitability/feasibility site studies;
(3) future management problems;
(4) estimated cost of maintenance and operations;
(5) impact of recreational use on other key values, e.g. soils
stability, wildlife populations, etc,; and
(6) compatibility with the normal maintenance and operations of the
hydroelectric project and other 1 and uses.
A trade-off table will be developed showing how each of the concept
plans were rated on each criterion. Adjustments will then be made and
the final plan will be selected that best meets the eriteria.
The final master area plan will include map(s) showing the location of
the project lands and waters that will be developed for recreational
uses, initially and in the future.
(c) Socio-Economic
After the initial license application submission, emphasis will be
placed upon analyzing and assessing impacts at local, regional, and
state levels. Regional and state levels are included because it is
quite likely that there will be significant impacts at these levels.
One example of this is the possible influence of low electricity rates
on the growth of manufacturing and processing industries in the region
surrounding the project.
Additionally, the study will focus on the effects of the project on
important commercial, recreational and subsistence fish and wildlife
resources. It is known that some of these resources are of
substantial value to user groups and that changes in the availability
of these resources could have far-ranging effects.
The design of the study will also allow for in-depth analysis and
assesssment of other important impacts not yet firmly identified.
This flexibility and adaptability will insure that effort is allocated
only to the evaluation of relevant impacts.
(d) Cultural Resources
This effort represents the conclusion of all archaeological field
investigations and laboratory analyses. Also to be included is an
investigation of the cultural resources along the primary transmission
line corridor. Accomplishing this task will involve the following:
(1) identification and documentation of the cultural resources, by
site, of the entire study area;
(2) formulation and explication of recommendations for mitigating
construction impacts on each identified site; and
~ (3) development of a detailed report covering not only cultural
~~---------------r_e_s_o_u_r_ce_s ___ b_u_t ___ al_s_o ___ t_h_o_se ___ p_h_y_s_i_c_al ___ p_a_r_am_e_t_e_r_s ___ a_f_fe_c_t_i_n_g ___ c_ul_t_u_r_e_· ___ ~
A6-13
Both state and federal regulations mandate that all cultural resources
of the project area be identified and inventoried; that effects of the
project on each resource site be determined; and that any impacts be
mitigated before any such sites(s) are irreparably damaged.
Procedures for identifying and discussing cultural resources of the
primary one-half mile wide corridor will be the same as for the
studies previously mentioned.
The final cultural resources report will include the location,
decription and mitigation recommendations for each site reported. The
report will also detail the anticipated budget for any archaeological
excavation that is deemed appropriate prior to initiation of
construction. The report will also include sections on
culture-influencing factors such as vegetation, fauna, geology,
history, prehistory and native populations. All topical discussion
will be focused upon assessing the cultural resources of the entire
study area.
(e) Transmission Corridor Assessment
Having established the one-half mile wide primary corridor prior to
license application submission, these studies will be undertaken to
further refine the corridor to a defined right-of-way no wider than
that which will satisfy the minimum width requirements of the National
Electric Safety Code. To accomplish this, the following will be
necessary:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
provide environmental data to design engineers;
apply previously established impact mitigation procedures to the
selected right-of-way;
develop the least-impact right-of-way; and
recommend specific construction impact mitigation procedures.
Following the development of a preliminary right-of-way, previously
established construction impact mitigation procedures will be
evaluated to insure that all anticipated impacts have been properly
addressed. Among the impact topics to be reviewed are: clearing and
slash disposal methodologies; stream crossing and erosion control
practices; and access road, structure laydown and wire-stringing zone
construction methods. If unanticipated impacts are identified,
mitigation procedures addressing those impacts will be developed.
Restoration plans will be addressed for areas of unavoidable impact.
(f) Fish Ecology
The fisheries studies undertaken in this phase provides for continuing
study of salmon to ensure that a complete cycle has been examined. In
addition, studies are proposed for several areas that were not
essential for license application. It is probable that new problems
or areas will be identified as work continues. These will be
incorporated into the program at a later date. The studies to be
completed include:
•~--------------~
A6-14
Study of the contribution of the Susitna River Population to the
Cook Inlet fisheries will continue through a complete
birth-to-reproduction cycle;
Study of the distributions of adult and juvenile salmon in the lower
Susitna River will continue;
An attempt will be made to identify new spawning stocks. Because of
the turbidity and the general inaccessibility of many areas, the
possibility exists that there may be unknown spawning stocks.
During the course of the entire program they will be sought;
The relation of the environmental conditions to the abundance and
survival of adult and juvenile salmon in the Susitna River estuarine
environment will be studied. The information will be used to
establish optimum water flows for the passage of the young salmon
through the estuarine area;
-The relation of environmental conditions to the abundance and
survival of adult and juvenile salmon in the Susitna River
freshwater environment will be studied. Temperature, turbidity,
food, predation stream flow and other environmental factors are
important to survival and growth will be studied.
(g) Wildlife Ecology
In general, the studies undertaken after the license application
submission will be more intensive, in-depth evaluation of the work
that was started in the pre-license application phase.
As stated earlier for big game, it is impossible to gain the necessary
understanding of habitat utilization and movement patterns within a
two-year period. Therefore, the post-license application phase will
form the second half of the data collection effort. It is likely that
by the beginning of this phase some preliminary conclusions can be
drawn; however, the pre-license application phase effort will also
serve to identify areas of concern and data voids. Although some
tentative impact conclusions will be drawn at the end of the latter
phase, it will require considerably more data to develop an accurate
assessment of the situation.
Following the identification of key furbearer species and areas of
abundance and critical habitat an intensive survey of the furbearers
will be conducted. A 3-year study effort started late in the
pre-license application phase and continued following the submittal of
the license application will be undertaken to gather data on
population density, family units, home range, denning sites, diets,
and seasonal use of habitats. In addition, the relationship of
furbearers with other species will be evaluated. The type of
information to be collected in this phase is necessary if appropriate
mitigation measures are to be undertaken.
•~----------------~
•
A6-15
During this phase, an intensive avian census will be conducted. Small
mammal trapping will be a continuation of the program started in the
preceeding phase and will result in co~ering the minimum 4-year time
period needed to identify the cyclic properties of this group.
Intensive study sites in upland and wetland habitats will provide data
on bird and small mammal species composition and density in each of
the most extensive habitats of the region. This will provide an
indication of habitat uniqueness and productivity. Also, these
intensive sites should provide data that can be extrapolated to
similar habitats throughout the upper basin and should provide a basis
for predicting faunal changes based on habitat changes caused by
construction alternatives, including changes in water level.
If the results of the pre-license application phase identify the
presence of significant concentrations of waterfowl, an intensive
waterbird study will be conducted during this phase. This study will
determine, for each of the major wetland habitat types of the region,
the type and degrees of utilization by waterbirds, especially loons,
grebes, and waterfowl.
The studies in this phase are designed to provide more than the
species composition and abundance information required by the FERC
regulations. Data gathered during this phase is essential to
developing a comprehensive understnading of the interrelationships
that exist within communities. This information will be vital in
refining the impact evaluation and recommending appropriate mitigation
measures. Information obtained during this phase will also be needed
in order to respond to interrogatories that will be received during
the license application review period.
(h) Plant Ecology
The primary objectives of this phase of the plant ecology study are to
collect and analyze quantitative vegetation data for the various
vegetation types to be affected by the proposed Susitna River project,
and to refine impact assessments utilizing collected data.
Quantitative data will be collected from the major vegetation types
present in the impoundment areas and the riparian communities
downstream. This information will not only be required to describe
the vegetation community, but it will also be necessary for the
development and implementation of a successful wildlife mitigation
program.
Low-level aerial photography (aerial quadrats) will be used to obtain
quantative information on the tree species in the boreal forest. This
technique is currently being utilized by the u.s. Soil Conservation
Service and u.s. Forest Service in the lower Susitna River Basin.
Representative aquatic plant communities will be studied in the
project area. Notes will be made on frequency, abundance, and vigor
of plants. For the larger woody species, browse biomass will be
~----------------------------------------------------------~
J\6-16
calculated from canopy coverage measurements on aerial photographic
imagery.
Impacts of the proposed project, especially in the downstream
floodplain to Talkeetna, will be discussed in the report. Supportive
literature of similar habitats and impacts on wood riparian
communities will be utilized.
(i) Construction and Operation Impact Analysis
A detailed impact assessment for the construction phase and
operational phase of the project will be completed. For the
construction phase, impacts to be considered would include:
-Visual quality impact due to access roads, site facility, borrow pit
operation, disposal of debris
Air and Wat·er Quality effected by land cleaning process, and
construction activity within stream beds
-Primary resource utilization including fuel, materials, land and
manpower
-Financial resource committment
-Safety
For the operational phase in addition to the specific impacts
discussed earlier in this section and Section A.5.8 of the proposal
the following will be considered:
I -Visual consequence of irreversibly changing the existing boreal
forest area to a reservoir area.
Resource committment or conservation in terms of energy and land
use.
-Long term Water Quality impact.
Safety and accidental fire potential due to recreational use of
area.
Most of the environmental impacts of the Susitna project will be
documented in reports specifically dealing with each area, such as
land use, wildlife ecology, etc. Nevertheless, the objective of this
task will be to generate a report summarizing the impacts of
constructing and operating the Susitna Project for each environmental
element of significance.
(j) Completion of the Environmental Process
During the 1 icensing processing, supplemental studies in all
disciplines will be required for thorough impact analysis. The
•~----------------~
A6-17
technical aspects of these studies will be summarized under the
subtask reports for these disciplines. It is proposed that annual
supplementary environmental reports be prepared for submission to the
FERC during the licensing process.
Principal Investigators in each discipline will prepare annual reports
on the activities, results, and conclusions of the supplementary
investigations. Every effort will be made to keep these individual
reports in tune with the information needs of FERC and other
regulatory agencies to minimize report revisions after submission to
the appropriate agency in draft form.
As necessitated by the environmental approval process or the Alaska
Power Authority written testimony relating to the Susitna Project
environmental report will be prepared by the appropriate experts.
This testimony will be for the purpose of highlighting project
organization, activities and findings in conformance with FERC license
requirements. Discussions among all discipline-specific groups will
be held prior to preparation of testimony. This will allow the group
to deal with the most pressing issues and devote equal attention to
all problem areas. Oral testimony at public hearings will also be
provided as required.
Upon receipt of interrogatories, and a request by the APA to respond
to such interrogatories, they will be assigned to the appropriate
Environmental Study Director who will, in cooperation with the
Principal Investigators, prepare an appropriate response.
Upon receipt of an interrogatory, the Environmental Study Director
will make a determination as to the type of response that would be
appropriate. The response alternatives are as follows:
-Alternative 1
The data exists and can be used to prepare an adequate response to
the interrogatory.
-Alternative 2
The data needed to reply to the interrogatory exists but will be
available at some time in the future in a scheduled report. If the
need for a detailed response is not critical, the response will
indicate when and in what form the appropriate information will be
available.
-Alternative 3
The necessary data has not yet been collected and/or analyzed. In
this case, the response will indicate when a detailed reply can be
prepared.
~~--------------~
A6-18
Alternative 4
The data needed to reply to the interrogatory does not exist and is
not planned to be collected in the future. Therefore, a detailed
response is impossible and will be so explained.
All responses to interrogatories will be sent to the APA for approval
and submission to the party that prepared the interrogatory.
Finally any reports, addendums, or supplements required to obtain
final approval of an EIS for the Susitna Project will be prepared and
submitted to APA. '
Level of Effort
Task Force (Acres, TES and subconsultants) ••••••••• $2,895,900
Task Force (ADF&G) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••••• 1,954,100
Total Task 7 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $4,940,000
A6.8 -Cost Estimates and Schedules
Activities under this task
design development effort.
schedules will be required
construction contracts.
will continue in support of the ongoing Task 6
In particular, Engineer's estfmates and
for access road and diversion scheme
For purposes of effective overall project management during subsequent
phases, a Program Planning Guide will also be prepared. This will provide
a complete guide to identify for APA management the specific planning
requirements and, for the eventual project management contractor, those
products essential to the planning and management of the Susitna
hydropower project.
The products of the planning guide will include the following:
- A project master schedule that shows in graphical fonn the major
milestone dates for planning products, events and decisions.
- A consolidated construction schedule that identifies the major
construction activities and shows their required start and finish dates
in bar-chart format.
Fifteen specific work packages that explain in detail the planning
required for each of the following areas:
Corporate
Engineering
Permits and land
Construction support
Support services
~ Project control
• '-----La-bor_r_el-atl-·on_s _____ ___;__ _____ ____;
--Contracts
Quality assurance and quality control
Camps
Communications
Procurement and 1 ogi st i cs
Permanent materials
Construction equipment
Construction
A6-19
Each package will explain in detail its respective area and will
include:
-An explanation of the objective of the work plan
-A detailed scope of work outlining the planning products and
activities to be developed within its area
-Situations and factors to be considered in developing the planning
products
-An estimate of the manpower required to produce the planning products
A detailed critical path network showing the precedence relationship
and logical ties of the planning activities within the package and its
1 ogical relationship to other work packages.
- A critical path analysis that shows duration, early start date, late
start date, early finish date, float and critical path for all major
activities.
-An estimate of manpower required for the planning effort
-An estimate of manpower required for the pre-construction effort
Level of Effort •••••••••••••••••••••••••• $200,000
A6.9-Licensing
Acres will provide all the assistance requested by APA to secure approval
of the FERC license for the Susitna Project.
After the license application has been prepared and submitted to FERC, as
discussed in Section A.5.11, work will continue on preparation of
supplemental material to support the initial application. The principal
areas of activity include all work necessary to present bid documents for
the Watana Dam and completion of all environmental studies impact
assessments.
At this time, an accurate estimate of the work effort to prepare
testimony, respond to interrogations or attend meetings is not available.
Even so, our own experience to date has demonstrated such needs will
arise. The level of effort shown below includes anticipated requirements
to secure legal consultation and expert testimony in response to
interventions.
~~~~ffi~~--L-ev_e_l __ of __ E_f_fo_r_t __ •• _._·_·_··_·_·_·_··_·_·_·_··_·_·_·_··_·_·_·_·· __ $4_3_o_._oo_o __________________ ~
•
,1\6-20
A6.10 -Marketing and Financing
The primary shift in activity in the area of marketing and financing is
the availability of Salomon Brothers as direct consultants to APA to
assist APA in matters of project financing and Bond Underwriting.
Acres will continue to be the focal point of all other activities in the
marketing and financing areas, particularly in the areas of risk analysis,
base plan extension and revenue assurance studies. All other activities
discussed in Section A.5.12 will be continued on an as needed basis to
meet the needs of APA.
Level of Effort •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 450,000
A6.11 -Public Participation
To keep the public fully informed of the progress being made relative to
preliminary design and completion of the environmental assessment, the
public participation program as described in Section A5.13 will be
continued into the second phase. The goal during this phase will be to
continue to seek feedback from all groups, agencies or individuals
identified as interested parties during the first phase. Infonnat ion
materials will be prepared periodically and the information office will
remain active to provide a continuous point of contact for the public.
However, the anticipated level of activity during this phase should be
lower than prior to submission of the FERC license application.
Level of Effort •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 250,000
A6.12 -Administration
Project administration will continue through award of the FERC license at
essentially the same level as described in Section A.5.14 for pre-license
submission.
Level of Effort •••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••• $ 200,000
~------------------------------------------------------------------~
PROJECT. SCHEDULES·.·.
SECTION A7 -PROJECT SCHEDULES
A.7.1 -Introduction
A master schedule is presented on the following pages as the basis for
graphically portraying the timing of various subtasks which must be
conducted concurrently or sequentially in achieving the overall project
objectives. It will be noted that successful implementation of this plan
demands a very early resource commitment, particularly in terms of
acquiring and installing important site support facilities. By the end of
the first year of work, we will have reached a decision point allowing the
State of Alaska to consider recommendations to proceed as planned now or as
modified as a result of our efforts to that point --or to terminate if
negative findings so indicate.
The second year of the project will include an acceleration of design
activity as preliminary field investigations feed results to design teams.
Design transmittals will be regularly prepared and reviewed and refinements
will continue so that, during the final months of the two and one half
year period, all FERC exhibits can be completed.
Reviews throughout the progress of the work will be conducted internally
and externally by proposed review boards, appropriate State and Federal
agencies, utilities, environmental interests, and other interested parties.
Duri~g the 30th month, a review of the fully assembled proposed draft
license application will be conducted so that it can be executed and filed
by the State of Alaska at the end of the period.
Schedules are contained on:
Plate A7.1: Master Schedule-Sheet 1
Plate A7.2: Master Schedule-Sheet 2
-~~ ----------------~
TASK NO.
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
DESCRIPTION
POWER STUDIES
LOAD FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOAD GROWTH SCENARIOS
SELECTION OF ALTERNATIVES
SELECTION OF VIABLE EX PAN. SEQUENCES
I. 05 8 1.06 EX PAN. SEQ. IMPACT ASSMT. a PWR. STY. RPT.
2.00 SURVEYS a SITE FACILITIES
J
ACTIVITIES PRIOR TO LICENSE APPLICATION
1980 1981
F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A. S 0 N D J
I
I
~ GO/NO-GO
F M A
ACTIVITIES PRIOR TO AWARD OF CONSTRUCTION LICENSE
1982 1983 1984 1985
MJJASON 0 J/F/M AIM/J J/A/S 0/N/D J/F/M A/M/J J/AIS 0/N/0" J/F/M A/M/J J/AIS 0/N/D
I Ill Ill Ill 1111111 II Ill Ill IIIII IIIII 1111111111111111 IIIII 1111 IIIII !!!!! !1111 11111111111
f---"2:..:.·-=;0:;-1 8~2::..:.0::..:2'-1-P~R;.;:OV!SION LAND USE PERMITS, FIELD CAMP.
1--~2-'-i. 0~3;--lr.:-DE'C-S~I~G'iN~S~C0-7-N"'"'S:;,T"' . .;.A~I i-R~ST;_.:R,::.I.:..P ______ --£~:::::::;::;:-:;OI'!S\0'"?'"<&'\<e<-·
2.04 LAND STATUS RESEARCH ~l!lilBDt,;:;·~~: :; ,
·' -
2. 05 LAND ACQUISITION ANALYSIS looii;W'=: .. ~=.~::!:·c=c·-=-. -t--1--t---l--t--l--l--t---l--f--t--l---1--11--t! ---l--f--l--+--l--f--t--'--l---l--l--t-+-+--l---l---1--ll---t--·-t----l---+---l---t--f---+--+--l---t----t
2.06 RIGHT OF ENTRY
2.07 SITE SPECIFIC SURVEYS
2.08 AERIAL PHOTO.& MAPPING
2.09 CONTROL NETWORK SURVEYS
2.10 ACCESS ROADS
2.11 MAP a PHOTO. SEARCH
. 2.12 FIELD RECONN. OF RESERVOIR AREAS
2.13 MARKETABILITY a DISPOSAL STUDY
2.14 COST EST. FOR RESERVOIR CLEARING
2.15 SLOPE STABILITY a EROSION STUDY
2.16 HYDROGRAPHIC SURVEYS
3.00 HYDROLOGY
3.01 REVIEW OF AVAILABLE MATERIAL
3.02 a 3.03 FIELD DATA INDEX COLL DIST. SYST.
3.04 a 3.05 WATER RESOURCE a FLOOD STUDY
3.06 HYDRAULIC a ICE STUDIES
3.07 SEDIMENT YIELD a RIVER MORPHOLOGY
3.08 CLIMATIC STUDIES TRANSMISSION LINE
3.09 ACCESS ROAD STUDIES
4.00 SEISMIC STUDIES
4.01 REVIEW OF AVAILABLE DATA
4.02 a 4.09 SHORT 8 LONG TERM SEISMIC MONITORING
4.03 8.4.10 RESERVOIR INDUCED SEISMICITY
4.04 REMOTE SENSING IMAGE ANALYSIS
l---47'_'-"oC05--+-'=sEISMIC GEOL')GY RECONNAISSANCE
4.06 84.12 EVALUATION 8 REPORTING
4.07 a 4.13 GROUND MOTION STUDIES
4.08 PRELIM. ANALYSiS OF DAM STABILITY l----.4c.,.l;-;l'---l-S~E"'I""S'icM"'IC~GE""·O"'L"O"'-GY FIELD STUDIES
4.14 DAM STABILITY CONSULTING SEFNICES
4. 15 SOIL SUSCEPT. TO SEISMIC FAILURE
5.00
5.01
5.02
5.03a 5.04
5.o5a5.06
GEOTECH. EXPLORATiON
DATA COLLECTION 8. REVIEW
PHOTO INTERPRETATION
EXPLORATORY PROGRAM-1980
EXPLORATORY PROGRAM-198!
5.0765.08 EXPLOR.PROG. DESIGN 8 DATA COMP.
6.00 DESIGN DEVELOPMENT
6.01 8 6.02 REVIEW PREY. STUD. a INVEST. TUNNEL ALT.
6.03 EVALUATE ALT. SUSITNA DEVELOP.
6.04 DEVIL CANYON ARCH DAM EVALUATION
6.05 13 .19..28 31 REPORTS
6. 06 WATANA/DEVIL CANYON STAGED DEVELOP. ALI
6.07 a 6.08 PRELIM. WATANA/DEVIL CANYON DAM ALT.
6.09 a 6.10 ESTAB. WATANA!DEVIL CAN. DESIGN CRITERIA
6.11 PRELIM. DESIGN WATANA DAM
t---":6"-.1!-"2~-lf-'::-P::'-R_ELIM. DESIGN DEVil CANYON DAM
6.14 SPiLLWAY DESIGN CRITERIA
6.15 WATANA SPILLWAY ALT.
6.16 DEVIL CANYON SPILLWAY ALT.
6.17 a 6.18 PRELIM.DESIGN WATANA/DEVIL CANYON SPILL
6.20 ACCESS a CAMP FACILITIES
6.21 a 6.22 WATANA/DEVIL CAN. DIVERSION SCHEMES
6.23S 6.24 OPTIMIZE W./D.C. POWER DEVELOPMENT
6.25 OPTIMIZE DAM HEIGHTS
6.26 a 6.27 PRELIM. DESIGN WAT.ID.C. POWER DEVELOP.
629a6.30 WATANA/DEVIL CAN. GEN. ARRG'T.
=l I
=t::
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I DEVELOPMENT I
SELECTION
. ·"""' I
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Ill 111.111 II Ill Ill IIIII 11111.11111 11111.1111111111 IIIII IIIII 1111111111111111 IIIII
FEASIBILITY a J ·l LICENSE SUBMISSION -l---+--J---I--II----l----f---+---J----jf----l---I---J---t----1---t-----i
~~~--+--1--~--+--+--+--+---+--+----+----+----+----+----+----r---~---1r---~--~----+---~ ~
I
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE A7.1: MASTER SCHEDULE-SHEET I
h ACTIVITIES PRIOR TO LICENSE APPLICATION ACTIVITIES PRIOR TO AWARD OF CONSTRUCTION LICENSE \I
/
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• L
TASK NO. DESCRIPTION 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
J F M AM J J A SIO N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J/F/M A/M/J J/A/S 0/N/D J/F/MIA/M/J J/A/S 0/N/D J/F/M A/M/J J/A/S 0/N/D
l-c=---:7.:.,.:-,;. 0"=-,...,---+"E;;;,;.NVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
7.01 a 7.02 COORD. a MONITOR ENVIRON. STUDIES
1111 II 1111111 Ill Ill llli 111~1 IIIII IIIII llllltllllllllll IIIII llllm IIIII 11111111111
7.03 EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES _ . . _:•;;--;:;:_;.:,:::_~_J --+ ---~--~~--+---~---+--~~--,
7. 14 ACCESS ROAD ENVIRON. ANALYSIS ··· ·-.~,-=---~ ! I
7.15 PREPARATION OF FEElC LIC. APPLIC. EXH.
8.00
8.01
8.02
8.03
8.04
8.05
8.06
8.07
9.0
9.018 9.02
9.03
9.04
9.05
10.0
10.01
10.02 a 10.03
10.04
10.05
10.06
10.07
10.08-10.00
TRANSMISSION
TRANSM. LINE CORRIDOR SCREENING
ELECT. SYSTEMS STUDIES
TRANSM. LINE ROUTE SELECTION 1981
TOWER,HARDWARE a CONDUCTOR STUDIES
SUBSTATIONS
DISPATCH CENTER a COMMUNICATIONS
TRANSM. LINE COST EST.
CONST. COST EST. 8 SCHEDULES
ASSEMBLE a PREPARE DATA a COST ESTIMATE
PREPARE COST ESTIMATE UPDATE
DEVELOP ENGR./CONST. SCHEDULE
PERFORM CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS
.liCENSING
IMPACT OF FERC REGULATIONS
ESTAB. REG. REQ. a DATA ACQUISITION
COORDINATE EXHIBIT PREPARATION
PREPARE EXHIBITS D aE*
PREPARE EXHIBIT R*
PREPARE EXHIBIT T*
PREPARE APPLIC. DOCUM'T. REV, EXT. REV.
I IIIIDII Ill Ill Ill 1111111 II IIIII 11121 11111~11111 1111 IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII 11111~11111
Ill Ill Ill Ill 1111111111 IIIII IIIII lllllllllll.llli IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII 1511111111 111111
Ill Ill II 1111111 Ill Ill IIIIIIIIUilllll IIIII IIIII 1111111111111111 IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII
F-=-=!F"-=f'-"-"-'t---t--t---t--1-t--1 SUBMISSION LICENSE .... && ~Pl':EJ
1111111~111111!111 Ill Ill lll.illllll Ill Ill Ill Ill Ill 11111111111 I I LICENSE I
r-~=--+-===========----------r-r-+~~--+-~~-+-+-4-4--~+-+-~-r-+-+~--l--+-+-~~-+-4~~~+-~~~~~==~±=~~:~~±=~~~==~==j!~=+==~==~=±==~ 1111,1111111 Ill Ill 111~111 11111111 IIIII IIIII IIIII 1111111111 UIIIUIIII IIIII 11111.1111111111111 11.0 MARKETING 8. FINANCING
11.01 811.02 PRO.J. OVERVIEW PREP. a INT. REPORT PREP.
11.03 ALT. POWER SOURCE RISK ANALYSIS
11.04 SUSITNA BASE PLAN INITIAL RISK ANALYSIS I
r--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~----~-t--~--f-~-4---4--~--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,1~1~1;1~1~11~~~-·~·~1~·~·~11 111!1111 111 Ill Ill llllll~l~l~l~l~l~l~-4--~--~-4---t--1----4----~----~---1-----!----4-----r----t----i----i----i-----1
I 1 111 111 i 111 111 111 111111 111 111 •nuu 1 U:ti•:.:•:.:•:..:I-F··~~~~~~•:.:•:.:I~~·~·~~~ 11 ~~~~•:.:•:..:~~~~·~~f-•:.:•:.:1 c~•:..:•:..:•~·~·~• +l:.:l:..:•~-+--+--+--l--l--+---l---+---+---+---t---t---J---t-----1 --+----t----t
11.05 SUSITNA BASE PLAN EXTENSION a REV.
11.06 SUSITNA FINANCING RISK ANALYSIS
("" 11.07 RESOLUTION OF TAX EXP.lPT BOND ISSUE 1.!iJII I
11.08 IDEJ'HIFY PARTIES IN INTEREST
11.09 REVENUE ASSURANr'O:: PROCEDURES
11.10 LIAISON W/APA BON" UNDERWRITING MANAGER
II. II DRAFT DOCUMENT. FOR BOND OFFERING Ill Ill 1111111 IU 1111illl!llll.lll II~ lllllliilll.lll~lll Ill Ill Ill 1111111 111'1111:1111;1111
I I
12.0 PUBLIC PARTICIPATiON I I Ill Ill Ill 1111111 111.1111 IIIII IIIII IIIII 1111111111 IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII 11111111111
12.01 OPERATE INFORMATION OFFICE
~ I
I
12.02 CONDUCT PUBLIC MEETINGS
12.03 CONDUCT WORKSHOPS
(ili.'al
I ll!!g
12.04 PREPARE,PUBLISH,a DISTR. INFO. MATERIAL
12.05 PREPARE a MAINTAIN ACTION LIST
13 0 0 AI MINISTRATION 111 1111111 1111111111 IIIII 11!1111111 111111~1111 11111.11111 11111~11111.1111 IIIII 111111
13.01 PREPARE DIVISION RESPONS. MANUAL
13.02 DEVELOP FINANCIAL CONTROL PROCEDURES
13.03 PREFll.RE PROJECT MASTER SCHEDULE
13.04 DEVELOP SCHEDULE CONTROL SYSTEM
13.05 DEVELOP COST CONTROL SYSTEM
13.06 PREPARE MANPOWtR L.DADING SCHEDULE
13.07 DEVELOP ACCT. POLICIES a PROCEDURES
13.08 PREFll.RE DOCUMENTATION CONTROL SYST. •
*-FOR REVISED REGULATIONS SEE ANNEX A TO TASK 10
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE A7.2: MASTER SCHEDULE-SHEET 2