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Home My WebLink AboutAPA1659FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSIONOFFICEOFELECTRICPOWERREGULATIONDRAFTENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSTATEMENTSUSITNAHYDROELECTRICPROJECTFERCNO.7114-ALASKAVolume7.AppendixN.SocioeconomicsAppendixO.CulturalResourcesFERC/DEIS-0038TKf4;zS-QS'~FLfI~n1),l&Stil/ARLISAlaskaResourcesLibrary&InformationServicesAnchorage,AlaskaApplicant:AlaskaPowerAuthority333West4thAvenueSuite31Anchorage,Alaska99501AdditionalcopiesoftheDraft-EISmaybeorderedfrom:DivisionofPublicInformationFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission825NorthCapitolSt.,NE.Washington,D.C.20426May1984 iiiTABLEOFCONTENTSAPPENDIXN.SOCIOECONOMICSN.lAFFECTEDENVIRONMENTN.l.lProposedProjectN.l.l.lIntroductionN.l.l.2Population.N.l.l.3InstitutionalIssuesN.l.l.4QualityofLife...N.l.l.5EconomyandEmploymentN.l.l.5.1Economy.. . . . .N.l.l.5.2Employment....N.l.l.6Housing.".. . . ....N.l.l.7CommunityServicesandFiscalStatusN.l.l.7.lCommunityServicesN.l.l.7.2FiscalStatus..N.l.l.8Transportation...N.l.l.8.lRoadandHighway.N.l.l.8.2Rail.N.l.l.8.3Air.N.l.2SusitnaDevelopmentAlternativesN.l.2.lAlternativeDamLocationsandDesignsN.l.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutes.N.l.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutesN.l.2.4AlternativeBorrowSites.N.l.3Non-SusitnaGenerationAlternatives.N.l.1.lNatur~l-Gas-FiredGenerationScenarioN.l.3.l.lNorthernKenaiPeninsula....N.l.3.1.2TyonekArea. . . . . . . . . . .N.l.3.2Coal-FiredGenerationScenario.....N.l.3.3CombinedHydro-ThermalGenerationScenarioN.l.3.3.lSewardAreaandtheEasternKenaiPeninsulaN.l.3.3.2TokandDeltaJunctionAreaN.2ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTS.N.2.lProposedProject.N.2.l.lWatanaDevelopment.N.2.l.l.lIntroduction.N.2.l.l.2Population.N.2.l.l.3InstitutionalIssuesN.2.l.l.4QualityofLife...N.2.l.l.5EconomyandEmploymentN.2.l.l.6Housing.N.2.l.l.7CommunityServicesandFiscalStatusN.2.l.l.8TransportationN.2.l.2DevilCanyon.N.2.l.2.lPopulation.N.2.l.2.2Institutional.N.2.l.2.3EconomicsandEmploymentN.2.l.2.4Housing.N.2.l.2.5CommunityServicesandFiscalStatusN.2.l.2.6Transportation.N.2.l.3AccessRoutes.N.2.l.4PowerTransmissionFacilities..N.2.1.5AlternativeBorrowSites....N.2.2SusitnaDevelopmentAlternativesN.2.2.lAlternativeDamLocationsandDesignsN.2.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutes..;.N.2.2.2.lPlan13"North".N.2.2.2.2Plan16"South".N.2.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutesN.2.2.4AlternativeBorrowSites.N.2.3Non-SusitnaGenerationAlternatives.N.2.3.lNatural-Gas-FiredGenerationScenariosN.2.3.1.1TyonekArea. . . ..".":':".".,.:"':N-3N-3N-3N-3N-ION-12N-12N-12N-14N-15N-20N-24N-27N-28N-29N-29N-29N-29N-29N-29N-30N-30N-30N-30N-30N-33N-35N-35N-35N-37N-37N-37N-37N-37N-38N-45N-47N-48N-50N-52N-60N-6lN-6lN-6lN-6lN-62N-62N-62N-62N-63N-63N-63N-63N-64N-64N-64N-64N-64N-64N-65N-65 ivTABLEOFCONTENTS(Cont'd)N.2.3.1.2KenaiArea... .N.2.3.1.3AnchorageArea.N.2.3.2Coal-FiredGenerationScenarioN.2.3.2.1HealyArea..,....N.2.3.2.2CoalTransportationRoutesN.2.3.2.3NenanaArea.N.2.3.2.4WillowArea.N.2.3.2.5CookInletArea.N.2.3.3CombinedHydro-ThermalGenerationScenarioN.2.3.3.1Johnson..N.2.3.3.2ChakachamnaN.2.3.3.3Snow.N.2.3.3.4Browne.N.2.3.3.5Ke~tna.N.2.4ComparisonofAlternativesN.3MITIGATION.N.4RECOMMENDEDANDONGOINGSTUDIESREFERENCES. . . . . . . . . .APPENDIXO.CULTURALRESOURCES0.1AFFECTEDENVIRONMENT0.1.1ProposedProject..0.1.1.1Introduction..0.1.1.2Geoarcheology..0.1.1.2.1Introduction0.1.1.2.2GlacialHistory.0.1.1.2.3VolcanicTephraDeposits0.1.1.2.4OtherDeposits.0.1.1.2.5Post-DepositionalDisturbance0.1.1.3RegionalHistoryandPrehistory0.1.1.3.1Introduction.0.1.1.3.2Pre-TerminalPleistocene0.1.1.3.3TerminalPleistocene0.1.1.3.4EarlyHolocene0.1.1.3.5MiddleHolocene.0.1.1.3.6LateHolocene.0.1.1.3.7HistoricPeriod.0.1.1.4MiddleandUpperSusitnaBasin0.1.1.4.1HistoryofResearch....0.1.1.4.2PrehistoricandHistoricSites0.i;1.4.3PaleontologicLocalities...0.1.1.4.4SignificanceofCulturalResources0.1.1.5TransmissionCorridors.0.1.1.5.1HistoryofResearch. . . . . . . .0.1.1.5.2PrehistoricandHistoricSites0.1.1.5.3SignificanceofCulturalResources0.1.2SusitnaDevelopmentAlternatives.....0.1.2.1AlternativeDamLocationsandDesigns.0.1.2.1.1WatanaI-DevilCanyon.0.1.2.1.2WatanaI-ModifiedHighDevilCanyon0.1.2.1.3WatanaI-ReregulatingDam0.1.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutes..0.1.2.2.1Corridor1.0.1.2.2.2Corridor2.0.1.2.2.3Corridor3.0.1.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutes0.1.2.4AlternativeBorrowSites.0.1.3Non-SusitnaPowerGenerationAlternatives0.1.3.1NaturalGas-FiredGenerationScenario0.1.3.1.1Beluga-ChuitnaArea.0.1.3.1.2Kenai.0.1.3.1.3Anchorage.0.1.3.2Coal-FiredGenerationScenario0.1.3.2.1Willow.0.1.3.2.2Nenana.0.1.3.2.3CookInlet" . .0.1.3.3CombinedHydro-ThermalGenerationScenario0.1.3.3.1Johnson..0.1.3.3.2Keetna.,. . ...0.1.3.3.3SnowRiver.N-65N..,66N-66N-66N-67N-67N-68N-69N-69N-69N-70N-71N-71N-72N-72N-74N-75N-760-30-30-30-30-30-30-40-40-40-60-60-60-60-80-80-80-80-90-90-9o-no-n0-120-120-120-130-130-130-130-130-140-140-140-140-140-140-140-150-150-150-150-150-150-150-150-150-160-160-160-16 v"'l"t'''.',TABLEOFCONTENTS(Cont/d)0.1.3.3.4Browne....0.1.3.3.5LakeChakachamna.0.1.3.3.6BelugaRiver,Nenana,andAnchorage0.2ENVIRONMENTALIMPACT.0.2.1ProposedProject.0.2.1.1WatanaDevelopment.0.2.1.1.1Construction.0.2.1.1.2Operation.0.2.1.2DevilCanyonDevelopment0.2.1.2.1Construction.0.2.1.2.2Operation.0.2.1.3AccessRoutes.0.2.1.3.1DenaliHighwaytoWatana.0.2.1.3.2Watana~to-DevilCanyonRoute0.2.1.3.3Rai1AccesstoDevi1Canyon.0.2.1.4PowerTransmissionFacilities..0.2.1.4.1Dams-to~GoldCreekSegment..0.2.1.4.2GoldCreek-to-FairbanksSegment0.2.1.4.3GoldCreek-to-AnchorageSegment0.2.2SusitnaDevelopmentAlternatives....0.2.2.1AlternativeDamLocationsandDesigns0.2.2.1.1WatanaI-DevilCanyon.0.2.2.1.2WatanaI-ModifiedHighDevilCanyon0.2.2.1.3WatanaI-ReregulatingDam0.2.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutes.0.2.2.2.1Corridor1.0.2.2.2.2Corridor2.0.2.2.2.3Corridor3.0.2.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutes0.2.2.4AlternativeBorrowSites.REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . , . . .,"0-160-160~160-170-170-170-170-170-170-170-210-210-210-230-230-230-230-230-240-250-250-250-250-250-250-250-250-250-250-260-26ARLISAlaskaResourcesLibrary&InformationServiceslU1chorage,~aska viLISTOFFIGURESFigureCOVERPHOTO:Artist'sRenditionoftheProposedWatanaDamandReservoirAPPENDIXN.SOCIOECONOMICSN-lMapShowingLocationsofCommunitiesandPoliticalUnitsintheVicinity oftheProposedProjectFeatures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....N-4N-2ComparisonofBaselinePopulationForecastsfortheMat-SuBoroughbytheApplicantandthe theInstituteforSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofAlaska.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-7N-3MapShowingLocationsofCommunitiesandPoliticalUnitsintheVicinityofAllAlternativeSites.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...N-31APPENDIXO.CULTURALRESOURCES0-1StratigraphicUnitsandTephrochronologyoftheSusitnaBasin. . . . . . .0-50-2ChronologyofArcheologicalTraditionsinSouthcentralAlaska.. . . . . .0-70-3MajorCulturalResourcesSiteGroupsintheMiddleandUpperSusitnaBasin0-10 viiLISTOFTABLESTablePageAPPENDIXN.SOCIOECONOMICSN-lBaselinePopulationProjections,1970-2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-5N-2Mat-SuBoroughPlanningDepartmentBaselinePopulationProjectionsN-8N-3Projectionsof1985-1994BaselinePopulationforMat-SuBoroughMadeforAssessmentofProposedMoveofAlaskanCapitaltoWillow. . . . . . .N-9N-4EmploymentbyIndustryforAdultResidentsofMatanuska-SusitnaBoroughN-14N-5TotalLaborForceandUnemploymentRatesforProposedProjectAreaandTransmissionLineRoute,1976through1981. . . . . . . . . . . .N-16N-6Number,Distribution,andVacancyofHousingUnitsbyType. . . .N-17N-7Base1ineProjectionsofNumberofHouseholds,1970-2010. . . . . . . .N-19N-8ExistingorPlannedCapacityofCommunityServicesofProject-AreaCommunities.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-21N-9YearsWhenCommunityServiceNeedsWillEqualExistingorPlannedCapacityinProject-AreaCommunitiesUsingISERPopulationProjections. . . . . . . .N-22N-I0YearsWhenCommunityServiceNeedsWillEqualExistingorPlannedCapacityUsingMat-SuBoroughPopulationProjections.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-23N-llFiscalYear1981-82PerCapitaExpendituresbyAnchorageandFairbanksGovernmentsforCommunityServices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-28N-12ResidencyDistributionbyHousingTypeinCommunitiesoftheKenaiPeninsulaBorough. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-33N-13CumulativeDistributionofProjectedProjectPopulationtoImpact-AreaCommunities,AlternateYearsPlus1990and2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-41N-14CumulativeDistributionofAnnualProject-InducedPopulationtoMat-SuBoroughCommunitiesas.ProjectedbyApplicantandMat-SuBoroughPlanningDepartmentN-43N-15CumulativeProjectionsofTotalPopulationincludingSusitnaProjectasMadebyApplicantandMat-SuBoroughforAlternateYearsand1990and2002. . . . .N-44N-16PercentageoverBaselineISERProjectionsofPopulationGrowthProjectedwithSusitnaProject. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-46N-17CumulativeProjectedNumberofHouseholdsinImpactAreaCommunities,AlternateYearsPlus1990and2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-51N-18YearsWhenExistingorPlannedCommunityServicesCapacityofProjectAreaCommunitiesWillBeExceeded. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-53N-19AdditionalCommunityServicesRequirementsoverBaselineforProject-InducedPopulationin1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N-55APPENDIXO.CULTURALRESOURCES0-1ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:0-2ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:0-3ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:0-4ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:WatanaDevelopment.....DevilCanyonDevelopmentAccessRoutes. . . . . . . .PowerTransmissionFacilities0-180-210-220-24 DRAFTENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSTATEMENTSUSITNAHYDROELECTRICPROJECT,FERCNO.7114APPENDIXNSOCIOECONOMICSpreparedbyB.A.PayneArgonneNationalLaboratoryN-1 N-3APPENDIXN.SOCIOECONOMICSN.1AFFECTEDENVIRONMENTN.1.1ProposedProjectN.1.1.1IntroductionWiththeexceptionofthetransmissionlineroute,theproposedSusitnaHydroelectricProjectwouldbelocatedalmostentirelywithintheMatanuska-Susitna(Mat-Su)BoroughofAlaska(Fig.N-1).Onlyafewisolatedresidencesexistwithinorneartheproposedprojectboundaries,buttheprojectmightaffectmanycommunitieswithinMat-SuBorough,particularlyalongthe"Railbelt"--thestringofcommunitiesbetweenAnchorageandFairbanksthathaveaccesstotransportationandlivelihoodviatheParksHighwayandtheAlaskaRailroadline.OthercommunitiesoutsidetheboroughbutstillintheproximityoftheprojectareaincludeCantwellintheYukon-KoyukukBoroughandPaxsonintheValdez-Chitina-WhittierBorough.Theproposedtransmissionlineroutewouldforthemostpartparalleltherailline(Fig.N-1),betweenAnchorageandFairbanks.ThelinewouldpasscommunitiesalongtheRailbeltinMat-SuBorough,andCantwell,HealyandNenanaintheYukon-KoyukukBorough.Mostofthecommunitiesnearthesitesofproposedprojectfacilitiesaresmallandhavelittleeconomicdevelopment.Full-yearresidentsofthesecommunities,suchasTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,GoldCreek,andCantwell,relyontourism(actingasguides,operatinglodges,orprovid-ingrecreationalsupplies)orconstructionprojectsforincome.Talkeetnaisatake-offpointformanymountaineeringexpeditionstoMt.McKinley.Twoverysmallcommunitycenters,MontanaandCaswell,liesouthofTalkeetnaontheParksHighway.Eachofthesecommunitiesconsistsmainlyofalodgethat.caterstorecreationalfishermenandhuntersandasmallrural,permanentpopulation(DOWLEngineers,1983).CantwellwasprimarilyaNativeAlaskancommunityuntilworkersassociatedwiththeTrans-AlaskaPipelineprojectsettledinthecommunityduringthe1970s.Nativesandnon-Nativesnowresidegenerallyintheirownsectionsofthecommunity.HealyandNenana,likeCantwell,areprimarilysmallNativecommunities,althoughtheproportionofnon-Nativeresidentshasincreasedinthepastdecade.MostoftheresidentsofMat-SuBoroughresideinthesouthernportionoftheborough,justnorthofAnchorage.TherelativelylargercommunitiesofPalmer,Wasilla,Willow,andHoustonincreasinglyarebecoming"bedroom"communitiesforAnchorage.Less-developedpartsofMat-SuBoroughfarthernorthalongtheRailbeltarebecomingpopularareasforsecondhomesandforeasyaccesstooutdoorrecreationresourcesforAnchorageresidents,particularlysincethecompletionoftheParksHighway.Withtheexceptionofscattered,isolatedresidences,theremainderoftheboroughisgenerallyuninhabited.AnchorageandFairbanksarethelargestcitiesandthemajormetropolitan,industrial,andcommercialcentersofthestate.TheprincipalareasconsideredinthisappendixincludetheMatanuska-SusitnaBorough,Cantwell,Paxson,communitiesalongtheproposedtransmissionlineinYukon-KoyukukBorough(HealyandNenana),andtheterminiofthetransmissionline,FairbanksandAnchorage.EmphasisisplacedonMat-SuBoroughandCantwell,thepoliticalunitsnearesttotheproposedprojectfacilities.Lessemphasisisgivenothercommunitiesalongtheproposedtransmissionlineroute(HealyandNenana)andfartherfromthesite(Paxson,Anchorage,andFairbanks.BecausefinancingoftheproposedprojectwouldbeinlargepartfromtheStateofAlaska,theentirestatewillbecovered,butonlytoalimitedextent.Communitiesandpoliticalunitsclcsesttotheprojectareaarediscussedfirst,followedbydiscussionofmoredistantpopulationcenters.N.1.1.2PopulationNumerouslarge-scaleprojects,mostofthemenergy-related(e.g.,theTrans-AlaskaPipeline),causeda32%increaseinpopulationinAlaskabetween1970and1980(from302,361to400,481)(StateofAlaska,1982)(seeTableN-l).Rapidincreasesinpopulationalsooccurredinmuchoftheregionaroundtheproposedprojectareaoverthissameperiod.Infact,thegrowthrateinMat-SuBoroughexceededthatofthestateinthe1970s,increasing174%from6,509to17,816peopleaccordingtostatefigures(StateofAlaska,1982).Estimatesbyboroughadministratorsareevenhigherof1980population,abo4t22,000.Annualboroughgrowthrateshavefluctuatedfromaslowasabout-4%(1981)toashighasabout27%(1975),reflectingthevolatilityofpopula-tionpatterns;toalargeextentthisvolatilityisattributabletochangesinconstruction N-4...................:..40Miles...................._.......I....I............\....r,,11IIII......I...\...,..,tI\'"~,,,,''---,--,'....--".__pOX$onr\\,,\,,f,...........,,\ 1.-............,..,,,\.~~----e\...Il--~"'~,I •..".I:...~__~.....r-'-',.:..--'"..........~............•...........................zzzzoNtDolD1i15~2o~-W~~~.:..:;A1::.:5::.;O;::O~W~----..:.::L2::J14~8"Jo:...W~.r.------1-4..,60--W--~0lJ)r-------------------...-----..."......~.,--.-,tDzo.;l-tDFigureN-l.MapShowingLocationsofCommunitiesandPoliticalunitsintheVicinityoftheProposedProjectFeatures. Table N-l.Baseline Population Projections,1970 -2010 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Pol itical Subdivision 1970t'1981 ISERt 2 Appli- cantt3 ISERt 2 Appli- cantt3 ISERt 2 App1i- cantt3 ISERt 2 App1i- cantt3 ISERt 2 App1i- cantt3 ISERt 2 App1i- cantt3 Matanuska-Susitna Borough Tal keetna Trapper Creek Wi 11 ow Houston Wasilla Palmer Big Lake Other Total Borough 182 NA 38 69 300 1,140 36 4,818 6,509 640t 3 225t 3 139t4 600t3 2,168t3 2,567t3 410t4 16,085t3 22,285t4 623 215 129 580 2,082 2,469 386 15,498 21,466 780 263 NA 878 2,895 3,302 NA 23,084 31,202 700 241 145 652 2,342 2,776 434 17 ,430 24,142 1000 320 NA 1,415 4,157 4,525 NA 31,547 42,964 726 250 150 676 2,428 2,878 451 18,072 25,030 1,281 390 NA 2,278 5,967 5,374 NA 39,317 54,607 741 255 153 690 2,479 2,938 460 18,449 25,553 1,642 474 NA 3,669 8,474 6,383 NA 48,692 69,334 779 269 161 726 2,607 3,091 484 19,405 26,877 2,106 577 NA 5,909 12,053 7,581 NA 59,843 88,069 834 288 173 777 2,791 3,309 518 20,777 28,777 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Projections not made :z I (J"l NA NA NA 698 158 1,077 NA 287,865 NA NA 929 632 143 NA 264,329 NA NA 573 823 128 NA 246,390 NA NA 519 710 117 NA 234,393 NA NA 613 470 107 NA 218,123 NA 97 529 425 200,918 Unknown,very sma 11 62 89t4 (1980) 79 334t4 (1980) 362 470t4 (1980) 4,752 7,691t4 (1980) 126,385 187,761 Nenanat6 Tota1 Borough Hea1yt S Municipality of Anchoraget 7 Anchorage Census Oivision 124,542 173,017t S 197,829 (includes Greater Anchorage Area Borough) Paxson Yukon-Koyukuk Borough Cantwellt S Fairbanks Census Oivision 45,864 57,366t2 63,561 NA 70,060 NA 74,043 NA 76,743 NA 81,536 NA 87,959 NA NA:Not Available or not made because supporting information not available. t'U.S.Bureau of the Census (1973),pp.3-15,3-16. t 2 Projections of Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER),University of Alaska,as in Reeder et al.(1983b)for Mat-Su Borough,Anchorage,and Fairbanks only.Projections made only at borough or census division level.Baseline population projections for the communities in the Mat-Su and Yukon-Koyukuk boroughs were made in the following way:Because of the lack of data,a general assumption was made that the distribution of borough popula- tion to the communities in 1981 would hold through 2005.This assumption is weak in that many factors affect where inmigrants settle,e.g.,distance from project locations,commercial development,availability of housing and community services.Lacking this information,the assumption of constant distribu- tion pattern was used.These distribution percentages were then applied to the ISER borough total projections for each year to generate projections by community.Totals are less than sum of allocation (by 0.024%)to communities because of rounding erro,"s in calculating percentages. t 3 Frank Orth &Associates (1982a)p.4-7.Projections made for Mat-Su Borough only. t 4 U.S.Bureau of the Census (1980). t S Projections are made by Staff and assume 2%growth rates,the same rate assumed for Cantwell by Frank Orth &Associates (1983),p.33. t 6 Projecti ons are made by Staff and assume 3%growth rate,sl i ght1y hi gher than the Cantwell rate because of Nenana'5 greater percentage growth between 1970 and 1980 (6%)and its proximity to Fairbanks. t 7 Yarzebinski (1983),pp.25,27.Projections made only through 1988.Includes more census divisions than do ISER projections below. t 8 U.S.Bureau of Land Management (1982). N-6activityinAlaska(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.111-14).ThepopulationofCantwellincreasedbyabout44%between1970and1980,althoughinabsolutenumbers,thecommunityremainssmall,witha1980populationofonly89people(U.S.BureauofCensus,1980).MostofthegrowthintheMat-SuBoroughhasoccurredinunincorporatedareas,chieflyinthesouthernpartoftheborough.AccessibilityofrecreationresourcesandproximitytoAnchorageandtheRailbelt,aswellasjobopportunitiesrelatedtodevelopmentofAlaska'snaturalresourcesandthelargeTrans-AlaskaPipelineproject,haveallcontributedtothegrowth.AlthoughstillsmallrelativetoFairbanksandAnchorage,thecommunitiesofPalmer,Wasilla,Houston,andTalkeetnaby1980hadexpandedtoasmuchas10timestheir1970populationsize(TableN-l).ConsiderablevarianceexistsamongvariouspopulationgrowthprojectionsmadefortheprojectareaandfortheMat-SuBoroughwithouttheSusitnaprojectbymanyagenciesatthestateandlocallevelsandbyconsultantsforvariousprojectsproposedforthispartofAlaska(DOWLEngineers,1983).ThevariancebetweentwomajorsourcesofpopulationestimatesfortheSusitnaprojectareshowninTableN-1andFigureN-2.ProjectionsmadebytheInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch(ISER)attheUniversityofAlaska(firstcolumnundereachyearafter1985inTableN-1)aresubstantiallylowerthanthosemadefortheSusitnaApplicantbyFrankOrth&Associates,Inc.(secondcolumnforeachyearafter1985inthetable).ProjectionsmadebyFrankOrth&AssociatesfortheMat-SuBoroughfortheyear2005aremorethanthreetimesgreaterthanthosemadebyISER.ISERbaseditsbaselineprojectionsontheassumptionthattherewouldbefewnewlarge-scaleconstructionprojectsinthearea.ThemodelusedbyFrankOrth&Associatesisaregressionmodelbasedonhistoricalpopulationdatafrom1964to1980,includingthesteepgrowthcurvesofthe1970to1980decade(attributabletolarge-scaleinmigration).However,FrankOrth&AssociatesanticipatethatexceptfortheconstructionofanaturalgaspipelineneartheAlaskaHighway,therewouldbenomajorprojectstoaffectpopula-tionandeconomicgrowth.AthirdsetofbaselinepopulationprojectionsforMat-SuBoroughonlywasmadebytheMat-SuBoroughPlanningDepartment,andisshowninTableN-2.TheseprojectionsaremadeforPlanningDistricts,whichincludetheidentifiedcommunityplusdispersedpopulationintheareaaroundthecommunity(seeSectionN.2.1.1.2,"ComparisonofApplicantandBoroughProjections,"formoreexplanation).Thus,theallocationofpopulationistosimilar,butnotidentical,units.FrankOrth&AssociatespredictthatwithouttheSusitnaproject,totalboroughpopulationwillincreasenearly300%bytheyear2005,theanticipatedendoftheSusitnaprojectconstructionperiod.Allpopulationcentersintheboroughwouldgrowrapidly(e.g.,Wasillabyabout450%overthe1981population),butthecommunitieswouldstillbefairlysmallinabsolutenumbersofpeople(seeTableN-l).Thesehigh-growthprojectionsclearlyparalleltherapidgrowthintheareabetween1970and1980dueingreatparttotheinfluxofworkersontheTrans-AlaskaPipeline.ProjectionsmadebyMat-SuBoroughPlanners(TableN-2)showasmallerincreaseofabout210%inbaselinegrowthby2001foralmostallplanningdistrictsandtheBoroughasawhole.OnlyWasillaandareasinthe"Other"categoryareprojectedtogrowbymore(270%and220%,respectively)andPalmerbyless(only100%).TheISERmodelreliesonassumptionsabout(1)workforceinmigrationrelatedtoalimitednumberofprojectslikelytotakeplaceintheregionand(2)statespending(Reederetal.,1983a).OfparticularinfluenceintheprojectionofmuchlowergrowthintheboroughwastheassumptionbyISERthatstatespendingwoulddeclineafter1990,stabilizingagainafter2000.ThemethodsusedinarrivingatthesebaselinepopulationprojectionsfortheMat-SuBoroughillustratedifferentassumptionsaboutthedynamicsofdemographicandeconomicdevelopmentinAlaska.Becauseoftheirrelianceonpopulationchangesoverthepastdecade,themodelsofFrankOrth&AssociatesandtheBoroughmayoverestimategrowth.First,theconstructionoftheTrans-AlaskaPipelinewasamassiveundertaking,requiringlargenumbersofworkers(Olshansky,1983).Theseworkers,theirdependents,andtheserviceworkerswhoprovidedthesupportstructurefortheincreasedpopulation,considerablyexpandedthepopulationalongtheRailbelt.Giventhedropinoilpricesandtheconsequentlowerstaterevenuesandfewernewresourcedevelopmentprojects,thiskindofmassivegrowthmaynotberepeatedinthenexttwodecades.Second,FrankOrth&AssociatesalsoassumedthatthehighannualrateofincreaseintheshareofAnchoragemetropolitanpopulationthatresidedinMat-SuBoroughbetween1970and1980wouldcontinuethrough2005.IfgrowthinAnchorageslows,thisassumptionwillnotnecessarilyhold(Olshansky,1983).TheISERmodel,ontheotherhand,mayunderestimatethepopulationgrowththrough2005.Themodelisbasedontheassumptionthatonlyafewsmallprojectswillbedevelopedandthuslittleinmigrationwilloccur.Forexample,unliketheassumptionofFrankOrth&Associates,nonaturalgaspipelineconstructionisassumedintheISERmodel(Reederetal.,1983a;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).However,theISERmodelstillprojectsthatpopulationsintheboroughin2005willbealmost21%higherthanin1980. ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ex> ~c ~ o ~co -+-Io :Ja..~o ~ 0..~v ~ ~ ~ ~ N I App I i cant.I s project.i on I IISER"peej.ellen I~:z I......, ~ 1980 1985 1990 1995 YEAR 2000 2005 2010 •ISER -In.\I~u~e of Social and Economic Researcn <Unlv.of Alaska) Figure N-2.Comparison of Baseline Population Forecasts for the Mat-Su Borough by the Applicant and by the Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska. Table N-2.Mat-Su Borough Planning Department Baseline Population Projections Political Subdivision 1983 1985 1987 1989 _1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Matanuska-Susitna Borough Talkeetna 1,027 1,209 1,463 1,723 1,861 2,010 2,280 2,538 2,746 2,970 3,213 Trapper C\'eek 146 172 208 245 265 286 324 360 389 421 456 Wi 11 ow 911 1,073 1,298 1,528 1,650 1,782 2,021 2,249 2,433 2,631 2,845 Houston-Big Lake 3,291 3,874 4,687 5,518 5,959 6,436 7,300 8,125 8,788 9,506 10,281 Wasilla 11,397 13,709 16,942 20,363 22,217 24,237 28,041 31,824 35,085 38,667 42,600 Palmer 5,959 6,722 7,779 8,742 9,216 9,710 10,461 1l,029 11,265 11,467 11,626 Other 2,168 2,580 3,190 3,846 4,178 4,487 5,047 5,582 6,011 6,476 6,981 Total Borough 24,899 29,339 35,567 41,965 45,346 48,948 55,474 61,707 66,717 72,138 78,002 (27,589)(32,534)(39,807)(47,075) (50,771) (54,722) (61,513) (68,368) (73,935)(79,525)(86,032) t 1 Source:Calculated from Mat-Su Borough Planning Department (1983),pp.IV-18 -IV-19,IV-21 -IV-24.Numbers were calculated by subtracting the Planning Department's projections of "Susitna Hydro Impact Population Projections"(pp.IV-21 -IV-22)from total population projections.:z I Total Borough figures in parentheses are updated projections from the Mat-Su Borough Planning Department (undated).Updated projections are co not available for each planning district. N-9FrankOrth&Associates(1982b)alsomadebaselinepopulationprojectionsforanenvironmentalassessmentoftheproposedmoveoftheAlaskaCapitalfromJuneautoWillow(TableN-3).Inthatdocument,theprojectionsforMat-SuBorougharelowerthanthebaselineprojectionsshownintheSusitnaapplication(seeTableN-l).Takingthesefourvaryingprojections(onebyISER,twobyFrankOrth&Associates,andonebyMat-SuBoroughPlanners)andtheirbasesintoaccount,itappearsthatbaselinepopulationprojectionsusedintheSusitnaapplicationmaybehigh.Becausethisissueisunresolved,thelower·ISERandMat-SuBoroughbaselineprojectionswillbeusedforbaselineprojectionsforthepurposesofthisassessment.TableN-3.Projecticnsof1985-1994BaselinePopulationforMat-SuBoroughMadeforAssessmentofProposedMoveofAlaskanCapitaltoWillowPoliticalSubdivision1985 19901994Mat-SuBoroughTotal27,71736,47345,465Palmer3,0593,8124,546Wasilla2,7873,8194,913Houston701853998Willow-BigLake2,9833,8994,830Suburban15,49420,735 26,177Other2,6933,3554,001Source:FrankOrth&Associates(1982b),pp.184,190.Considerationoftheage,race,andethnicdistributionsofexistingcommunitiesishelpfulinestablishingabackgroundwithwhichtocomparecharacteristicsofconstructionprojectworkforcesandtheirfamiliesandtoevaluatethekindsofservicesneededfordifferentagegroups.MedianageintheMat-SuBoroughin1980was27.1years,upfrom25.8yearsin1970.ThesevaluesarehigherthanthestatemediansandlowerthantheU.S.mediansforthesamecensusyears.Theagegroupbetween18and44yearsoldcomprised45%oftheboroughpopulation(DOWLEngineers,1983:pp.111-22-23).Reasonsforthesepatternsinagedistributionmaybeinferredfromstatestatistics(AlaskaDivisionofBudgetandManagement,1982b:p.3).Specifically,becauseofthe1argegrowthinpopulationduetoconstructionactivity,thepeakoftheagedistributionofthestatein1980wasbetweentheages20and35.In1970,thepeakwasbetweenages20and25.Inadditiontoagingoftheyoung1970population,inmigrationofpeoplebetween20and35toworkonconstructionprojectshasprobablykepttheage-distributionpatternsofthetwocensusyearssimilar.TheISERmodelforstatewidepopulationprojectionsindicatesnetinmigrationwouldoccurthroughabout1990,butatadecreasingratebeginninginabout1987.Netoutmigrationwoulddominateafter1990,reachapeakinabout1996,thencontinueataslowerratethrough2005.Iftheseprojectionsareaccurate,thebulgeof20-to-35yearoldswouldbeevidentuntilnetoutmigrationbegan.Atthatpoint,moreusualpopulationagedis-tributionpatternswouldpredominate.About95%oftheMat-SuBoroughpopulationiswhite,another2%isAmericanIndian.CurrentlytheGoldCreekarea,siteoftheheadoftheproposedrailspurandanaccessroadtotheDevilCanyondamsite,isacollectionoflandtracts,somewithstructures,andissparselypopulated.Homesteadsestablishedinthegoldrush,manynowabandoned,areownedprivatelybyabsenteeownerswhoboughtthemasrecreationalproperty.OtherlandtractshavebeenprivatelyacquiredthroughAlaska'svariouslanddisposalprograms.Currentresidentsincludeafewemployeesoftherailroadandafewminers(BraundandLonner,1982).Noofficialpopulationstatisticsorprojectionsareavailableforthearea;butithasbeenestimatedthatbetween80and150peoplearepermanentresidentsintheareabetweenTalkeetnaandGoldCreek.(Thesewouldbeincludedinthe"other"categoryfortheboroughinTableN-l.)Thepart-timepopula-tioninthesummermaybetwiceorthreetimesgreaterthanthepermanentpopulation(BraundandLonner,1982:p.16). N-I0Cantwellisasmallcommunity(1980populationof89)locatedattheintersectionoftheDenaliandParkshighwaysinYukon-KoyukukBorough.Cantwell,aswellasothercommunitiesintheborough,hasalargecomponentofNativeAlaskansandsomerecentTrans-AlaskaPipelineinmigrants.Nobaselineprojectionsareavailable.Since1960,thecommunityhashadapopulationoflessthan100people(U.S.BureauofCensus,1973).Cantwellwouldlikelynotgrowrapidlyoverthenexttwodecadesunlessnewconstructionprojectswereimplementednearby.InCantwell,thepercentageofNativesisprobablymuchhigher,butexactfiguresarenotavailable(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.III-24).The1980populationsofHealyandNenanawere334and470,respectively.Between1970and1980,Healymorethanquadrupleditssize,whileNenanaexperiencedsubstantial,butlesser,growth(TableN-1).BothcommunitieshavealargecomponentofNativeAlaskans.Noofficialpopulationprojectionsforthenexttwodecadesareavailableforthesetwocommunities.ThoseshowninTableN-1werecalculatedassumingabaselineannualgrowthrateof3%forbothHealyandNenana(seefootnote5,TableN-1).AnchorageandFairbanksarethepopulation,commercial,andtransportationcentersofSouthcentralAlaska.AsshowninTableN-1,AnchorageisaboutthreetimesthesizeofFairbanks;botharemanytimeslargerthananyothercommunityinthestate.Bothcitiesgrewsubstantiallybetween1970and1980and'areexpectedtocontinuegrowing,althoughataslowerrate,throughtheyear2005.TheAnchoragepopulationhasstabilizedsomewhatafterincreasesinthe1960sandearly1970sfollowedbyadecreasebetween1978and1980duetocompletionoftheTrans-AlaskaPipeline.Municipalityplannersprojectaneven2%annualgrowthratethrough1988(Yarzebinski,1983:p.23).ThemedianageinAnchorageis26.3years.About85%ofAnchorage'spopulationin1980waswhite,5%Native,5%Black,and4%Asianandotherraces(Yarzebinski,1983:pp.23,31).N.1.1.3InstitutionalIssuesThecitiesofAnchorage,Fairbanks,Palmer,Wasilla,Houston,andNenana,andtheMat-SuBorougharetheonlyincorporatedgovernmententitiesintheproposedprojectarea.NoformalregionalorlocalformsofgovernmentexistintheYukon-KoyukukBorough(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982),althoughcommunityorganizationsdoexist(seebelow).Incorporatedpoliticalunitshavepowerstolevytaxesandprovideandmaintainmanycommunityservices(seeSec.N.1.1.6).Administrationofschoolsystemsisseparatefromotheradministrativefunctionsoftheborough.ElectedofficialsoftheMat-SuBoroughareamayorandfiveassemblymemberswho,alongwithafull-timeadministrativemanager,haveresponsibilityforboroughpowers(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).ThreecommunitieswithintheMat-SuBoroughareincorporated:Palmer,Wasilla,andHouston.Eachhasamayor,acitycouncil,andacitymanager(Palmer)orclerk(WasillaandHouston).TheonlyotherincorporatedunitsintheareaareNenana,Anchorage,andFairbanks.Eachhavepoliticalpowerstoprovideallcommunityservices.BothAnchorageandFairbankshaveamayor-councilformofgovernment,withacitymanagerandotherofficerstoadministertheservices(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:pp.4-191-4-195;CommunityResearchCenter,1983).Nenanahasamayorandaclerk,aswellasaNativeVillageCorporation,Toghotthele.Paxsonisunincorporated,buthasavillagecouncil.Paxson'sschoolisadministeredbytheCopperRiverSchoolDistrict,headquarteredinCopperCenter(AlaskaDep.ofCommunityandRegionalAffairs,1983).Valdez-Chitina-WhittierBorough,inwhichPaxsonislocated,isalsounincorporated.TheYukon-KoyukukBoroughisnotincorporatedandthushasnoneofthepowersoftheMat-SuBorough.TheschoolsystemforCantwellandHealyistheUpperRailbeltSchoolDistrict.NenanaisintheYukon-KoyukukSchoolDistrict(AlaskaDep.ofCommunityandRegionalAffairs,1983).Cantwellisalsoanunincorporatedcommunity.BecauseitspopulationhasalargecomponentofNativeAlaskans,theAhtnaCorporation,aNativeAlaskanorganization,administersNativefinancialconcernsinthecommunity,e.g.,developmentofNativeAlaskanlands.AhtnaCorporationhasnorecognizedpoliticalpower(McClanahan,1983).Therearetwocouncilsinthecommunity:aNativecouncilandtherecentlyformedCommunityofCantwell,Inc.(CCI),representingpri-marilynon-Nativeinterests.BoththeAhtnaCorporationandCCIwereorganizedtoreceivestategrantsforthecommunity.Conflictexistsbetweenthetwogroupsastowhichisthe1ega1representativeofCantwell.TheconflictissuchthateventheAlaskaStateDepartmentofCommunityandRegional"Affairshasseparaterepresentativestodealwitheachgroup(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-8).*TheCopperRiverNativeAssociationisanon-profitpoliticalorganizationthatcomplementsthefor-profitAhtnaCorporation.BoththeseorganizationsareintheregionalcorporationCookInletNativeAssociationInc.*Throughoutthisdocument,referencestospecific"Exhibits"aretotheexhibitssubmittedtoFERCaspartofAlaskaPowerAuthority'sSusitnaHydroelectricProjectLicenseApplication.Referencestospecific"Appendices"(App.)aretotheappendicesprovidedinVolumes2through7ofthisDraftEnvironmentalImpactStatement. N-nThirteenregionalNativecorporationsand174villagecorporationswereestablishedbytheFederalAlaskaNativeClaimsSettlementAct(ANCSA)enactedin1971.WhenCongresswroteANCSAitwaswiththeintentionofcreatingawayfortheNativesthemselvestodecideonthelandtheywouldclaimandthedevelopmentofthatlandanditsresources.TheActspecificallyestablishedtheNativecorporationsasprofit-making.EachAlaskanwhocouldclaimone-quarterormoreNativebloodreceived100sharesofstockinoneofthecorporations.ToguaranteeNativecontrolofdecisions,thestockcannotbesolduntil1991(Schuyten,1975:pp.158-159;U.S.GeneralAccountingOffice:1983)..Ahtna,Inc.isoneofsevera1vi11ageandregiona1corporationswithjurisdictionovertheproposedprojectarea.DoyonLimitedisthefor-profitorganizationandtheTenanaChiefsConferencethenon-profitNativeorganizationthatincludePaxson.Nenana'sNativesareorganizedundertheToghottheleNativeCorporation.AnotherNativecorporation,theTyonekNativeCorporationhasalsoclaimedlandswithinproposedprojectboundariesandthusisinvolvedinprojectdiscussions(AcresAmerican,undated).ThesecorporationsadministerfundsreceivedfromtheFederalgovernmentfortheAlaskaAreaNativeHealthService,IndianChildWelfareContractandComprehensiveEmploymentandTrainingAct,andStatefundsforprogramsonalcohol,energyassistance,andruralhealthclinics,amongothers(Peat,Marwick,Mitchell,&Co.,1982).TheNativecorporationsalsoinvestfundsindevelopmentprojectsanddistributeincomefromtheinvestmentsandfromtheirassetstomembersofthecorporations(U.S.GeneralAccountingOffice,1983).Recently,representativesofNativeorganizationsandvillagecouncilsmetata~onferenceoftheAlaskaFederationofNativestodiscusswhetherNativevillagesshouldbeorganizedastribesandrecognizedaspoliticalentitiesbytheU.S.Government.ConflictswithAlaskastatepoliticalrepresentativesonthisissuecontinue(McClanahan,1983).Alegal,economic,andculturalissueofimportanceinthestudyareaistheparticipationofaportionof thepopulationinsubsistenceactivities.Subsistenceactivitiesincludehunting,trapping,andfishingforruralcustomandtraditionaluses.Subsistenceactivitiesarepro-tectedbylawforaparticularpopulationofAlaskans:"ruralAlaskaresidents...[whohave]...along-term,consistentpatternofuse[.Thisusepatternrecurs]...inspecificseasonsofeachyear...[,meetscertaincriteriaofefficiencyandaccessibility,includes]meansofhandling,preparing,preservingandstoringfishorgamewhichhavebeentraditionallyusedbypastgenera-tions,butnotexcludingrecenttechnologicaladvanceswhereappropriate...[,and]...providessubstantialeconomic,cultural,socialandnutritionalelementsof thesub-sistenceuser's1ife."Subsistenceusepatternsarealsorecognizedintermsofcommunitieswhichencompass"individuals,families,orgroupswho...meetthecriteria...[forsubsistenceusers]."(AlaskaBoardofGame,undated:p.70).Subsistenceuseincludesusingtheproductsfornutrition,orfor"customarytrade,barter,sharingandgift-giving",includingforsmallamountsofcash.Significantcommercialenter-priseuseisspecificallyexcludedfromprotectioninthelaw.Alsoexplicitlyexcludedaresubsistence"useswhichwi11jeopardizeorinterferewiththeconservationandmanagementoffishstocksorgamepopulationsonasustainedyieldbasis"(AlaskaBoardofGame,undated:p.71).SubsistenceactivitiesinruralAlaskancommunitiesateoftencarriedoutincombinationwithacash-basedeconomy.Thecashgainedfromsomesubsistenceharvests,stateandFederalgovernmentprograms,Nativeassociationinvestmentdividends,andemploymentpaysforthematerialsandservicesofmoderncivilization,e.g.,transportation,housing,andeducation(Darbyshire&Associates,undated:p.7).Subsistenceusersmayrelyonsubsistenceactivitiesforamajorityoftheirsustenanceneedsormayusethemtosupplementtheirfoodandmaterialsupplies.Inonestudy,researchersprojectedapossibleincreaseinsubsistenceactivitiesasaresultofmoreefficientlyrunhouseholds,morecashtopurchaseequipment,andimprovementsintechnologytomakesuchactivitieseasier(Darbyshire&Associates,undated:pp.46-48;1980:p.84).Insufficientinformationisavailabletoquantifycurrentuseofandrelianceonsubsistenceactivitiesintheprojectarea.AstudyoffiveBethel-areaAlaskanvillagesbetween1951and1961indicatedthatsubsistencefoodharvestsprovided37%to45%oftotalcaloriesand67%to86%ofproteinconsumed(Darbyshire&Associates,1980:p.84).Comparablefiguresforsub-sistenceuseintheprojectareawouldprobablybelower,becausemanyofthecommunitiesintheareaarelocatedalongornearmajortransportationroutes,havesomecommercialdevelopment,andhavemixturesofNativeandnon-Nativeresidents.However,subsistenceactivitiesremainimportanttotheeconomyofruralcommunities,suchasCantwell,andtoindividualswhoresideinremoteareas.Forexample,inTyonek,aNativecommunitysouthwestofAnchorage,70peopleholdsubsistencepermitsforkingsalmon,equivalenttoaboutone-thirdof thecommunitypopula-tionof250,whileonly27residentshavelimitedentrycommercialfishingpermits.Thus,insomeNativeareas,subsistenceuseofresourcesisfargreaterthancommercialuse.Eachsub-sistencepermitallowstheholdertoharvest70kingsalmon,whichresidentsfeelissufficienttomeettheirneeds(AlaskaDepartmentofNaturalResources,1982,o.23).Controversycontinues IIilN-12amongthosewhoclaimsubsistencerights,otherscompetingforthesameharvests,andgovernmentagencieswhomustinterpretandenforceAlaska'ssubsistencelaws(AssociatedPress,1983;U.S.BureauofLandManagement,1982).N.1.1.4QualityofLifeA1981study(BraundandLonner,1982)ofresidentsintheTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwellareas,includingsmallersettlementsandremotedwellings,documentedthehistoricalsettlementpatternandthecurrentattitudesoftheresidentstowardtheproposedSusitnaproject.Ingeneral,residentsvaluetheisolated,ruralsettingsandthescenicwilderness.Becauseemploy-mentopportunitiesarelimitedandtourismisnotwell-developed,residentsareoftenwillingtoacceptaself-sufficientexistenceorliveonlowincomesinordertoremaininthesetting.Somewholiveinlocationsaccessibleonlybyfootfromtheraillineperiodicallyleavetheareaforseasonalwork,andfurthersupplementtheirlifestylewithhuntingandfishingandincomefromwelfaresources.Otherswhobuildandmaintainresidencesintheareaintendthemforseasonaluseohly,e.g.,forthesummer.BraundandLonnercategorizethepermanentpopulationoftheTalkeetnaandTrapperCreekareasintotwogroups.Oneismadeupoflong-termresidents,mostofwhomcametotheareainthe1950sorearly1960s.Thisgroupingeneralhasremainedthroughmanychangesinthearea.Inparticular,the1965completionoftheParksHighwaymadetheareaeasilyaccessiblefromAnchorageandFairbanks.Manyyoungerpeoplewereattractedbythescenicwilderness,andestablishedresidencesintheareainthelate1960sand1970s.Thesepeople,whocameaftertheroadwasbuilt,makeupthesecondgroupofresidents.,~Residentsnorth oftheproposedprojectsiteconsistofbothNativesandnon-Natives.Astheoriginalinhabitants,theNativeslivedsubsistencelifestylesbeforetheParksHighwaywasbuilt.WiththeconstructionofthehighwayandthedevelopmentofAlaska'sresources,non-Nativeshavemovedintothecommunities.Development,increasedaccess,andtheeconomicopportunitiesopenedbytheAlaskaNativeClaimsSettlementActhavecontributedtoagenerallypositiveattitudebytheNativesandNativecorporationstowardfurtherdevelopment(BraundandLonner,1982).N.1.1.5EconomyandEmploymentIngeneral,theeconomyoftheRailbeltareabetweenAnchorageandFairbanksislimitedtosomecommercialdevelopment,especiallytourist-relatedactivitiesalongtheParksHighway.Littledevelopmentofnaturalresourcesorofindustryhasoccurred.Employmentisprovidedprimarilybygovernmentorisrelatedtotourismandrecreation.Thelaborforceisextremelymobile,withmanyresidentsemployedoutsidethearea.Thus,employmentbyresidencelocationisnotconsistentwithemploymentopportunitiesofferedinthearea.EconomiesofAnchorageandFairbanksarebasedonbothcommercialandindustrialoperations.N.1.1.5.1EconomyEconomicactivityinMat-SuBoroughiscenteredinthesouthernpartoftheboroughinandaround·thecommunitiesofPalmer,Wasilla,Houston,BigLake,andWillow.Ofthenearly1,000businesslicensesheldinMat-SuBoroughin1980,almost800wereinPalmerandWasilla,withabout175intherestoftheborough.Morethanoverone-thirdofthe1icenseswereintheservices(transportation,publicutilities,finance,insurance,realestate,andpublicadmini-stration)andanotherone-thirdweredividednearlyevenlybetweentrades(retailandwholesale)andconstruction(Ender,1980;CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).BusinessreceiptsforestablishmentsinMat-SuBoroughshowtwoStandardIndustrialClassificationsconsiderablyoverwhelmingtheothers:constructionandretailgoods,atabout$26millionand$32mi11ion,respective1yin1977.Thesetwoclassificationsaccountedforabout70%oftota1businessreceiptsforthatyear.Thirdoverallwasservices,atabout$8million(OverallEconomicDevelopmentProgram,1980).Greaterdevelopmentinagricultureandinmining(especiallygold)isbeingencouraged(e.g.,throughalternativeplansforlanduseintheBoroughCompre-hensiveDevelopmentPlan)toincreaseincomefromthesecurrentlyverysmalleconomicsectors(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982;AlaskaDept.ofNaturalResources,1983).In1977,Cantwellbusinesseswereorientedtotourismandtransportation..Theyincludedgasstations,lodges,cafes,bars,andalaundromat(Univ.ofAlaska,1977).HealyisthesiteoftheUsibe11iCoa1Mine,whichproducesabout700,000tons[640,000metrictons(MT)]ofcoalperyearandemploysabout100workers(UsibelliCoalMine,undated).Mineworkerssupportothersmallcommercialoperationsinthetown.Nenanaresidentsdependonfishing,highwaywork,andrecreation-orientedactivitiesforincome.CommercialandsportfishingandhuntingareimportantindustriesintheSusitnaBasinandintheCookInletregionsouthoftheprojectarea.A1980studyfoundthatucommercialfishermenreceivedover$7mi11ionfromSusitnaBasinfishu.Processorsandretai1ersofthosefish N-13receivedover$32million.Itwasestimatedthat69,000recreationalfishermenand19,000huntersspent700,000daysintheSusitnaBasinareain1980,generating$44mi11ionforindustriesandservices,suchasequipmentsuppliers,guides,lodgingandfood(Grogan,1983:p.4).SalmonisthemostimportantfishharvestedcommerciallyinAlaska.In1980,512millionpoundswerecaught--over50%ofthetotaldomesticfisheriescatchthatyear--producing$269millioninpaymentstofishermen(AlaskaDiv.ofBudgetandManagement,1982b:p.35).SusitnaBasinfishcatchaloneproduced1%ofthisvaluetoAlaskanfishermen.TheAhtnaDevelopmentCorporation,asubsidiaryofAHTNA,Inc.(whichincludesCantwellNatives)wasorganizedspecificallytodevelopNativetalentsandexperiencein"cateringsupportforindustrialandtourismprojects."TheCorporationhasprovidedservicesfor10pumpstationsontheTrans-AlaskaPipelineand(incooperationwiththeKnikVillageCorporation)forthetemporaryconstructioncampattheproposedWatanaDamsite,aswellasonotherenergydevelopmentprojects.Otherprofit-makingsubsidiariesofAHTNA,Inc.areinvolvedinhousing(especiallyinNativevillages)andothersmall-scaleconstructionroadbuildingandmaintenanceandmineraldevelop-ment.Othersmall-scalecontractsonAhtnalandshaveincludedbuildingthecommunitycenteratCantwellandtheAhtnaLodgeatthejunctionoftheRichardsonandGlennHighways(AHTNA,Inc.,undated;ExhibitE,Suppl.Information,June,1983:p.5-2-3).Doyon,Limited,anotherNativecorporation,hasbeeninvolvedinsimilareconomicdevelopmentactivities(DoyonLtd.,undated).Per-capitapersonalincomeinAlaskain1980was$12,759,whichwas134%ofthenationalaverage.FortheregionspotentiallyaffectedbytheSusitnaproject,1980per-capitapersonalincomeswere:Mat-SuBorough,$10,846;Yukon-KoyukukBorough,$12,429;Anchorage,$14,266;andFairbanks,$13,308.Eventhelowestofthesevalues(Mat-SuBorough)is114%ofthenationalaverage(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1983).Medianhouseholdincome(beforetaxes)asdeterminedintheMat-SuBoroughsurveyin1979was$29,048(Ender,1980:p.52).Althoughthesevaluesappearhigh,theymustbeconsideredinthecontextofthecostof1ivinginA1askare1ativetotherestofthecountry.Forexample,foodcostsasapercentageofahouseholdbudgetinAnchorageandFairbanks(theonlyproject-relatedareasforwhichdataareavailable)were110%and127%oftheU.S.average,respectively,asofJune1982.TotalbudgetexpendituresforafamilyoffourinAnchoragewere150%oftheU.S.average--housingcostswere195%oftheaverageU.S.householdbudgetallocation,personalincometaxes183%,transportation168%,andmedicalcare160%(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1983).Thus,higherincomesareneededtopaythehighercostsoflivinginAlaska.AdjustingforAlaska'scostoflivingrelativetothatfortheU.S.asawhole,average1979per-capitaincomeinthestatewasonly0.86ofaverageU.S.per-capitaincome(ArgonneNationalLaboratory,1982:p.46).Nativehouseholdsaregenerallyamongthepoorestinthestate.InAnchoragein1979,one-sixthofatotalof12,000familiesmadelessthan$5,000;73%ofNativefamilieswerebelowthemedianincomeforAnchoragefamilies,and21%werebelowthepovertylevel,ascomparedwithabout7%forAnchorageoverall(Yarzebinski,1983:pp.44,45,49).EmploymentandincomeinmanyregionsofAlaskaarehighlydependentonstategovernmentsources.Onaninstitutionallevel,thestateprovidesfundstofinanceenergydevelopmentandcommunityinfrastructuretosupportpopulationincreasesrelatedtothatdevelopment(AlaskaDept.ofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment,1983:p.111-12).Itprovidesfundingtoaidboroughsinneedofservicesthatcannotbeprovidedwithlocaltaxincome.Currently,thestatepaysforabout85%ofthetotalMat-SuBoroughbudget,whenbothsharedrevenueandgrantsareincluded(Campbell,1983).ThroughtheAlaskaHousingFinanceCorporationandtheDivisionofHousingAssistance,thestatebuysmortgagesmadebyprivatelendinginstitutions.Thelowinterestratesofferedonsingle-familyhousing,andrecentlyextendedtoowner-occupiedtriplexesandfour-plexes,havemadethestategovernmentpracticallytheonlymortgagelenderinthestateandhavekeptthenumberofhousingstartsincreasingwhilethisnumberhasbeendecliningintherestoftheUnitedStates(Longenbaugh,1982:pp.6-7).Ithasbeenestimatedthatstategovernmentspendinghasaccountedfor84%ofemploymentgrowthinthestatesince1978(Myers,undated).Onanindividuallevel,thestategovernmentaccountsforabout45%to50%ofpersonalwage-and-salaryincomeinruralcommunities,andastatewideaverageof31%(Hoffman,1983;Irvin,1983;Darbyshire&Associates,1980,undated;Myers,undated).Lastyear,thestatedistributed$1,000fromoilroyaltiestoeachresident;thisyear,evenwithdroppingoilpriceseachresidentshouldreceiveabout$300(Hillkirk,1983:p.2).IfdividendcheckstocitizensfromtheAlaskaPermanentfundandothertransfer"paymentsareconsidered,thelevelofincomedependenceonstatesourcesisevengreater.Inruralareaswheresubsistenceactivitiesmaybetheprimarysourceoflivelihood,residentsrelyconsiderablyonpublicfundsforcash(Irvin,1983;Darbyshire&Associates,undated).Statelawalsoallowspropertytaxexemptionsfor"thepermanentplaceofabode"foreligibleresidents65yearsofageorolderandtheStatereimbursesthemunicipalityforrevenuelostfromsuchexemptions.InFiscalYear1982,372homesinMat-SuBoroughwereapprovedforexemptions,result inginstatepaymentof$197,150inlosttaxestotheborough(AlaskaDept.ofCommunityandRegionalAffairs,1983:pp.74-75). N-14N.1.1.5.2EmploymentAlthoughconstructionandretailsaleshavethelargestreceiptsinMat-SuBorough,theyarenotthemajoremployersintheBorough.In1979,non-agriculturalBoroughemploymentwasconcentratedingovernment(39%,or1,198workers),particularlyatthestateandlocal level(36%).Thenextlargestgroupofborough-sitedemployerswasretailsalesestablishments,with23%of thetotalof3,078workers(indicatingtherelianceof thearea'seconomyontourismandrecreation),followedbyfinance,insurance,andrealestateoperationswithacombinedtotalof15%oftheworkers.Constructionfirmsaccountedforonly6%oftheworkersemployedwithinboroughboundaries(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1980,ascitedinFrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-138).Thelowconstructionemploymentisrelatedinparttothefactthattheindustryisunionized,withstrongcollectivebargainingagreements.Thus,unionhallsinAnchorageandFairbanksaretheprincipalsourcesofconstructionworkers(CooperativeExtensionService,1980:pp.9-10).AlargeportionofMat-SuBoroughresidentsarenotemployedinanyofthebusinesseswithintheborough.Infact,inasurveysamplingfromabout90%ofboroughresidents,36%ofemployedadultsinthesampleworkedoutsidetheborough(inAnchorageorelsewhere,e.g.,onremotecon-structionprojects)(Ender,1980).AnothercomparisonindicatedthatthenumberofemployedpeopleresidingintheMat-SuBoroughwasmorethantwotimesgreaterthanthenumberofjobsavailableintheborough(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).Thus,employmentopportunitiesintheborougharefewcomparedtothesizeofthepopulation.Becauseof the1argecomponentof"commuter"residentsintheborough,therankingofprimaryemployingindustriesandoccupationsisnotconsistentwithrankingsbasedoneitherreceiptsoremploymentopportunitieswithintheborough.AsshowninTableN-4,a1979surveyinMat-SuBoroughindicatedthatthelargestgroupofemployedadultssurveyed(27.9%)workedinservices,exclusiveofgovernment(combinedprofessionalandotherservices,andeducation).Theconstruc-tionindustrywasthenextlargestemployerofboroughresidentsat16.6%,followedbygovernmentTableN-4.EmploymentbyIndustryt1forAdultResidentsofMatanuska-SusitnaBorought1PlaceofemploymentmaybewithinoroutsideMat-SuBorough.t2Totalsamplesizeof679households.ThepopulationsampledincludedallhouseholdsaccessiblebyroadintheMat-SuBorough--approximately90%ofallboroughhouseholds.Thesampleof679householdsactuallysurveyedwasestimatedtobeabout12%ofboroughhouseholds.Thepurposeofthesurveywastoacquireinformationonhousingstyle,costs,energyuse,employmentofhouseholdmembers,andattitudestowardeconomicdevelopment.Numbersinthetablerepresentmorethanoneworkerperhouseholdinsomecases.Source:Ender(1980).IndustryAgriculture-fishingMiningConstructionManufacturingTransportation,utilities,communicationsWholesaletradeRetailtradeFinance,insurance,realestateProfessionalservicesOtherservicesEducationFederalgovernmentStategovernmentLocalgovernmentPercentageofAdults2.95.516.62.510.52.811.44.59.49.49.16.35.43.6Numbert224461392188239538797976534530 N-15ofalllevels(15.3%),andwholesaleandretailtrade(14.2%).Thirty-fourpercentoftheadultsinthesample(Ender,1980)wereinprofessional,technical,managerial,orofficeoccupa-tions,and16%wereinclericalorsales(Ender,1980),reflectingthecharacterof thesouthernpartoftheboroughashomeforAnchorageworkers.Smallerpercentagesofworkerswereinconstruction-relatedoccupations:craftsmen(14.6%)andoperatives(12.2%).A1979surveydonebytheAlaskaDepartmentofLaborEmploymentCenterinWasillaofoccupationalskillsavailablesupportedthefactthatconstructionworkersofalltypeswerenotinabundance.Thesurveyfoundasurplusofskilledapplicantsforjobsasheavyequipmentoperatorsandlaborers,butadeficitforjobsrequiringsuchskillsascablesplicers,alltypesofengineering,andheli-copterpilots(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).Insummary,althoughconstructionandretailsalesrankasthelargestsourcesinbusinessreceipts,governmentisthelargestemployerwithinMat-SuBorough.However,manyresidentsworkoutsidetheborough,andmostofthesecommutersareemployedintheservicesatprofessional,technical,ormanagerialoccupations.In1981,averageemploymentintheMat-SuBoroughwas8167peopleoutofatotallaborforceof9,362(TableN-5).Thiswasequivalenttoanunemploymentrateof12.8%,considerablyhigherthanthestateaverageof9.4%,butdownfromtheboroughhighof18.9%in1978.Unemploymentintheboroughinotheryearssince1976hasbeen15%to16%(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1983).ThevolatilenatureofthesestatisticsreflectsthedependenceofmuchoftheAlaskanworkforceonlarge-scale,energy-relatedprojectsforemployment.Theseprojectshavetemporarypeakrequire-mentsfora1argenumberofworkers,butofferlong-termpermanentemploymentforveryfew.Thus,whenprojectconstructionworkforcesdecline(particularlyontheTrans-AlaskaPipeline),unemploymentrisesdramatically.Additionally,inMat-SuBoroughbetween1975and1978thelaborforceincreasedmorerapidlythanemploymentopportunities(CH2MHill,1981).Therearealsoseasonalvariationsinunemploymentbecauseconstructionprojectsoftenareactiveonlyinthesummer.Ithasbeenestimatedthatemp1oymentinmidsummerof1980inMat-SuBoroughwas20%higherthaninmidwinter(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).DatafortheYukon-KoyukukBorough,whichincludesCantwell,Healy,andNenana,aresketchierthanthoseavailableforMat-Suanditscommunities.AsshowninTableN-5,in1981thetotallaborforceintheYukon-KoyukukBoroughwas2,063persons,with1,768ofthememployed--a14.3%unemploymentrate(AlaskaDep.ofLabor,1983).InSeptember1982,about37%oftheboroughpopulationwasemployedingovernment,about18%eachintradesandservices,andlessthan10%inconstructionandminingcombined(TableN-4)(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1983).Cantwellresidentsareemployedprimarilyintourist-ortransportation-relatedbusinesses.Someemployment(about100jobsin1980)forresidentsoftheHealyareaisprovidedbythenearbyUsibelliCoalMine(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).About50to75otherjobsinHealyandNenanaareprovidedbyhighwayworkandrecreation-orientedoperations(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).AswiththeMat-SuBorough,however,inalljobclassificationsthenumberofjobsexistingintheYukon-KoyukukBoroughwasslightlysmallerthanthenumberofemployedworkersresidingthere,reflectingthefactthatsomeoftheemployedworkersarecommutingtoFairbanksorelsewhereforwork(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1983).UnemploymentratesforAnchoragehavebeenconsiderablylowerthanthoseforMat-SuandYukon-Koyukukboroughs,rangingaround7%or8%since1976.FairbankshashadhigherunemploymentratesthanAnchorage(TableN-5),peakingat17.6%in1978,butcloserto12%sincethen.EmploymentinbothFairbanksandAnchoragehasbeenprimarilyingovernment:inSeptember1982,25.1%ofemployedworkersinAnchorageand35.8%inFairbanksworkedingovernmentservice.TheFederalgovernmentisthemajorgovernmentemployerinAnchorage,whilethestatedominatesinFairbanks.Bothcitieshaveabout20%oftheiremploymentineachofservicesandtrade(whole-saleandretail)andeachhasonly10%inconstruction.ThetotalannualaveragelaborforceinAnchoragein1981was86,064persons;inFairbanksitwas20,813persons(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1983;Yarzebinski,1983).UnemploymentamongNativeAlaskansisingeneralhigherthanforotherresidents.AlthoughNativesmadeuponly4%ofthetotallaborforceinAnchoragein1980,22%ofallNativesinthelaborforcewereunemployed,ascomparedwithabout8%overall(Yarzebinski,1983:p.47).N.1.1.6HousingHousingunitsintheMat-SuBoroughareamixtureofyear-roundresidences,andrecreationalorpart-yearresidencesownedbypeoplewithpermanentresidenceselsewhere.Ninecabins,ofwhichonlyfourareused(andtheseonlyonatemporarybasis),arelocatedonlandwithintheboundariesoftheproposedimpoundmentsforthetwoSusitnadams(ExhibitE,Suppl.Information,June,p.5-15-1).Cantwell,Healy,Nenana,Anchorage,andFairbankshavefewerrecreationalunitsthanMat-SuBoroughcommunities.Allthecommunitiesintheproposedprojectandtransmissionlineareashavevolatilehousingmarketsthatfo11owtheboom-and-bustcyc1esoftheeconomy.Thus,dataonhousingcanbedifficulttointerpretintermsofestablishingabaselineforanincomingproject-relatedpopulation.Severalstudiesofhousingintheareahavebeenconductedsince1979,althoughmanygapsremaininthedata.Theresultsofthesestudiesaresummal'izedinTableN-6.For N-16TableN-5.TotalLaborForceandUnemploymentRatesforProposedProjectAreaandTransmissionLineRoute,1976through1981PoliticalSubdivisionMatanuska-Yukon-SusitnaKoyukukStateofBoroughBoroughAnchorageFairbanksAlaska1976TotalLaborForce5,4952,68968,05324,789164,000Employment4,6832,39063,18422,917150,000UnemploymentRate(%)14.811.17.27.68.51977TotalLaborForce6,3452,28377,64821,924172,000Employment5,3411,98672,06519,046156,000UnemploymentRate(%)15.8 13.07.213.19.31978TotalLaborForce6,8912,24382,18421,817181,000Employment5,5911,87475,43517,967161,000UnemploymentRate(%)18.916.58.217.611.°1979TotalLaborForce9,1942,07080,06320,916183,000Employment7,8691,78874,10618,221166,000UnemploymentRate(%)14.4 13.67.412.99.31980TotalLaborForce9,1252,07981,64720,488187,000Employment7,7231,73875,61617,982169,000UnemploymentRate(%)15.4 16.47.412.29.61981TotalLaborForce9,3622,06386,06420,813192,000Employment8,1671,76879,95618,288174,000UnemploymentRate(%)12.814.37.112.19.4Source:AlaskaDepartmentofLabor(1983),pp.23-24. TableN-6.N-17Number,Distribution,andVacancyofHousingUnitsbyTypeSingle-FamilyUnitsMulti-FamilyUnitsMobileHomesLodgesorOtherTemporaryUnitsTotalsCommunity/PlanningDistrictNumberor%VacancyNumberor%VacancyNumberor%VacancyNumberor%VacancyVacancyNumberRatePalmerHoustonWasillaSuburbanPalmertotoHoustonareaWillowt3TalkeetnaTrapperCreekCantwellHealyNenanaUnknownUnknownUnknown16292t3UnknownUnknownUnknownUnknownUnknownUnknown343t2oOt3UnknownUnknownUnknownUnknownUnknown178t222t3UnknownUnknownUnknownUnknownUnknownUnknownUnknownUnknown4facilitiest2Unknown27836t232t224t29tfacilitiesrooms80unitst2UnknownUnknownseasonalavailability;oftenfullinsummerst2872t'l,979t'718t'3,8D1t'Unknown196t'69t'96t'UnknownUnknown10.2%t'9.6%-49.9%t'6.7%t'6.8%t'l%t'Unknown30%t'8etweenPaxsonandUnknownCantwellUnknownUnknown7facilitiest2seasonalavailabilityfacilitiest2Unknown37%tSUnknown57%t680tSUnknown6%tS8144(3%)MunicipalityofAnchoraget4FairbanksCensusDivisionMat-Su8orough32,010(46%)5.2%vacancyratet428,950(42%)4.9-7.5vacancyratet4Unknown5%t6Unknown12%tS5.1-7.2%vacancyUnknownUnknownUnknown21hotels/motelst6(1,547units)14%tS(ofallunits)UnknownUnknown70,10418,224t78,582tS5.7%5.l%tSt'ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-9andTableE.5A.InformationgatheredintheOctober,1981Mat-Su8oroughhousingsurvey.Thevacancyrateincludesseasonalresidences.Houstonfiguresincludethelarge8igLakerecreationalhousingarea.Totalhousingunits(8582)include947units,manyseasonal(vacancyrateof52.8%),notlocatedinanyofthecommunities.t2Mayberentalh6uses1cabins,lodgesorrooms.Unfortunately,precisedatadistinguishingalltypesandcapacitiesarenotavailable.DataforPalmer,Houston,andWasillaweregatheredina1981housingstudyconductedbyMat-Su8oroughPlannersandreportedinExhibitE,SupplementalResponses(June,1983),pp.5-1-2-5-1-3,and5-14-3-5-14-5.t3CommonwealthAssociates,Inc.(1982).t4Yarzebinski(1983),pp.71, 75,and77.Dataarefor1982.Therangeofvacancyratesrepresentsthehighestandlowestvaluesfordifferent-sizedmulti-familyunitsandformobilehomesinparksandmobilehomesinlots.tSEnder(1980),pp.8,9and11.Dataarefor1979.t6CommunityResearchCenter(1983).Dataarefor1982.Thevacancyratehasbeenashighas17.6%(April1980)toaslowas2.2%(springof1982).t7U.S.8ureauoftheCensus(1980).tSThedataweregatheredina1981housingstudyconductedbyMat-Su8oroughPlannersandreportedinFrankOrth&Associates,Inc.(1982a). N-18example,a1981studybytheMat-SuBoroughPlanningDepartmentindicatedatotalof8,582unitsandanoverallboroughvacancyrateof20.6%.However,thesefiguresincludedmanyrecreationalorpart-yearunitsthatelevatedtheoverallvacancyrate(DOWLEng.,1983).InBigLake,arecreationalareanearHouston,thevacancyratewasabout50%,whileinTalkeetnaitwasonly1%(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).The1981boroughstudyalsoreportedatotalofonly62duplexes,343multifamilycomplexes,and178mobilehomes--alllocatedinthePalmer,Wasilla,andHoustonarea(DOWLEng.,1983:p.111-32).Inthesamestudyatotalof22spaceswerefoundinmobilehomecourtsinWasilla,49inPalmer,48inHouston,and3nearTalkeetna- atotalof122spaces(ExhibitE,Suppl.Information,June1983:p.5-14-6).Vacancyratesarenotavailablefortheseunits.Anothersurveyofhousingintheborough(Ender,1980)excludedunitsthatwereexclusivelyrecreational(about16%ofallunits).Thatstudyshowedthatabout80%oftheresidentialhousingstockwasinsingle-familydwellingunits.Onlyabout12%wasinmobilehomesandalittleover6%wasinmulti-familyunits.(Boroughofficialsfeelthatmoremobilehomesexist,butwerecountedassingle-familyresidences[DOWLEngineers,1983].)Thehousingsurveyalsofoundthatonlyabout14%ofthehousingunitssampledwererentalunits,includingabout10%ofthesingle-familyunits,63%ofmultifamily,and16%ofthemobilehomes.Almost80%ofallresidenceunitswereeitherwhollyownedorwerebeingpurchased(Ender,1980:pp.8,9,11).About14%,orabout1200,oftheunitsintheborougharerentalunits(ExhibitE,Suppl.Information,June1983:p.5-1-1).However,themajorityoftheseunitsareinthecommunitiesjustnorthofAnchorage.ResultsoftheEnder(1980)studyindicatedthatthevacancyrateforthewholeboroughis5.1%,withPalmerhavingthehighestvacancyrate.Thisrateiscon-siderablylessthanthe20.6%vacancyrateofthe1981studybytheborough,probablybecausetheEnderstudydoesnotincluderecreationalunits.DataontheavailabilityoftemporarylivingunitsarealsoshowninTableN-6.Becausedataarenotroutinelycollectedorupdatedontheseunits,theyareinconsistentincoverageandinlevelofaggregation.Atotalof35facilities,mostlylodgesandcabinsbetweenWasillaandHealy,werecountedinasurveybytheApplicant(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.5-14-3-5-14-5).Threeofthesefacilitiesareidentifiedasbeingintheprojectvicinity.Capacityofthesefacilitiesisnotknown.However,manylodgesincludeanumberofrooms,androomsandcabinscanoftenhousemorethanoneortworesidents.Motelsandhote1swerenotinc1udedintheApplicant'ssurvey,butthesewouldbelocatedprimarilyinthevicinitiesofAnchorageandFairbanks.Manyof thetemporarylodgingfacilitiesintheprojectareaareopenonlyinthesummer.Manyareingreatdemandbytourists,hunters,andfishermen,arereservedinadvance,andareatcapacity,particularlyonsummerweekends.ThemobilityoftheboroughpopulationandrecentlargepopulationincreasesarealsoreflectedintheresultsofthehousingstudybyEnderin1980.Oftheresidentssampled,43.1%hadmovedintotheboroughwithinthetwoyearspriortothehousingsurvey,another26.7%withinfouryearsbefore,andonlyabout13%morethantenyearsbeforethesurvey.Ofthosesampled,56%hadlivedintheMat-Suarealessthanfiveyears,andabout54%hadmovedoneormoretimesinthepastthreeyears.Thelargestgroup(44.6%)hadmovedtoMat-SufromAnchorage(Ender,1980).Developershaveestimatedthatbetween1,300and1,500newhomeswerebuiltinMat-SuBoroughin1982,primarilyintheWasillaarea(Campbell,1983;TheFrontiersman,1983:pp.3-4).Continuedgrowthinhousingconstructionwasexpectedin1983(Mitchell,1983).Althoughhousingisbeingconstructedrapidly,aconstraintonthenumberofnewunitspossibleisthatmostproposedsub-divisionsarenotlikelytobeservedbycommunitysewerorwatersystems.Boroughregulationsdemandalotsizeofoneacrewhenservedbyindividualwellsandseptictanks,thuslimitingthenumberofhousesthatcanbebuiltonagivenacreage.Thereisashortageofsmall-lothousing,apartments,andcondominiumsandaverylowvacancyrateinrentalunits(TheFrontiersman,1983:p.4).AccordingtotheEnder(1980)survey,theaveragehouseholdsizeintheboroughin1979was3.34personsandthemedianwas3.18persons;the1980Censusfoundanaveragehouseholdsizeof3.06persons(U.S.BureauoftheCensus,1980).Projectionsofthenumberofhouseholdsintheproposedprojectandtransmissionlinerouteareathrough2010areshowninTableN-7.Aswasdoneforpopulation,projectionsfromtwosourcesarepresentedinthetable.Thefirstcolumnundereachyearfor1985andbeyondcontainsprojectionsmadebyapplying1980Censushouseholdsize(seetablefootnotes)todatafromISERorbycalculatingfromISERdatatodistributetoboroughcommunities(seeTableN-lforexplana-tion).Censusprojectionsarethathouseholdsizewilldecreaseonanationallevel.However,noparticularprojectionsforAlaskahavebeenmade;thusforthesakeofconsistency,1980averagehouseho1dsizeswereassumedtoholdthroughouttheprojectionperiod.Thesecondcolumnforeachyearfor1985andbeyondcontainstheprojectionsmadebyFrankOrth&Associates(1982a)fortheApplicant. Table N-7.Baseline Projections of Number of Households,1970-2010 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Pol itical Appli-Appli-Appli-Appli-Appli-Appli- Subdivision 1970t 1 1980t2 ISERt 2 cantt3 ISERt 2 cantt3 ISERt 2 cantt3 ISERt 2 cantt3 ISERt 2 cantt3 ISERt 2 cantt3 Matanuska-Susitna Borough Talkeetna 54 209 201 246 226 334 235 453 240 618 252 792 270 NA Trapper Creek NA 74 71 83 80 107 83 138 84 178 89 217 95 NA Willow 11 45 42 NA 47 NA 49 NA 50 NA 53 NA 57 NA Houston 20 197 189 308 212 508 220 837 225 1,381 J 236 2,224 253 NA Wasilla 88 708 683 930 76B 1,404 796 2,124 812 3,189 855 4,536 915 NA Palmer 335 839 808 1,083 909 1,551 942 1,928 962 2,402 1,012 2,853 1,083 NA Big Lake 11 134 140 NA 158 NA 164 NA 167 NA 176 NA 188 NA Other 1,417 5,257 5,063 7,277 5,695 10,514 5,904 13,891 6,027 18,326 6,340 22,523 6,788 NA Total Borough 1,841 7,283 7,015 9,927 7,890 14,417 8,180 19,371 8,351 26,095 8,783 33,146 9,404 NA Paxson Unknown,very small number.Projections not made. Yukon-Koyukuk Borough Cantwell 16 20 31 34 37 40 45 50 :z I Healy 20 105 134 148 163 180 199 219 f-' <.0 Nenana 91 148 166 193 223 259 292 339 Total Borough 1,015 2,280 NA NA NA NA NA NA Anchorage Census Division 34,988 60,470 70,653 77 ,901 86,922 87,996 94,403 102,809 NA(includes Greater (70,104)t4 Anchorage Area Borough) Fairbanks Census Division 11,590 18,224 21,918 26,946 28,478 29,517 31,360 33,830 NA NA:Not Available t 1 1970 household data for the boroughs &census divisions are taken from the U.S.Bureau of the Census (1973),pp.3-31,3-52.Household data for com- munities are estimated by dividing the population estimates from Table N-l by the estimated average household size for the borough in which the community is located (U.S.Bureau of the Census,1973:p.3-31). t 2 Anchorage and Fairbanks data are from Bureau of the Census (1980).Assumes Mat-Su Borough household size of 3.06;Yukon-Koyukuk Borough household size of 3.18;Anchorage household size of 2.8;and Fairbanks household size of 2.6 (U.S.Bureau of the Census,1980).Calculated from ISER model population projections (Reeder et al.,1983b)shown on Table N-l.See footnote 2 for explanation of distribution to communities.Mat-Su Borough estimates for 1981 are higher,giving a total of 7,701 housing units in the borough (DOWL Engineers,1983). t 3 Household projections by Frank Orth &Associates (1982a),Table 4.1-6,p.4-14.Assumes·household size of 3.07 for 1982,decreasing to Census Bureau's national average of 2.657 in year 2000. t 4 1982 figure from Yarzebinski (1983)for municipality of Anchorage,which includes more census divisions than do ISER's Anchorage projections. Table N-9.Years When Community Service Needs Will Equal Existing or Planned Capacity in Project-Area Communities Using ISER Population Projectionst 1 Schools Solid Waste Secondary Hospital Community Water Sewers Di sposal Elementary (Jr/Sr)Fire Police Facil ities Talkeetna Individual Individual Rely on borough 2010+2010+2010+Covered by None exist sources septic 1andfi 11 s borough tanks Trapper Individual Individual Rely on borough 2010+Attend in No Covered by None exist Creek sources septic 1andfi 11 s other facil ities borough tanks communities I Houston Individual Individual Rely on borough 2010+2010+2010+Covered by None exist i'l sources septic 1andfill s borough~I III tanks Wasi 11 a 2010+Indi vidual Rely on borough 2010+2010+/2010+1983 Covered by None exist septic 1andfi 11 s borough tanks :z Palmer 2010+ 2010+Rely on borough 2010+2010+/2010+1983 2010+2010+t 3 I I'V 1andfi 11 s I'V Matanuska-NA NA 2009+t 2 2010+2010+NA 1982 Provided Susitna in Palmer Borough Anchorage 1992 2010+NA 2010+1983 1983 1983 NA Fairbanks 1983 2004 NA 2010+2001 1983 1983 NA Cantwell Individual Individual Rely on private 2010+Covered by None exist sources septic 1andfi 11 s Unknown state tanks NA =Not applicable t 1 Calculated from Table N-1,ISER projections,and Table N-8. t 2 See comparable entry in Table N-8. t 3 The Mat-Su Borough estimated this at 1995. Table N-10.Years When Community Service Needs Will Equal Existing or Planned Capacity Using Mat-Su Borough Population Projectionst 1 Schools Solid Waste Secondary Hospital Community Water Sewers Disposal Elementary CJr/Sr)Fire Police Facil ities Talkeetna Individual Individual Rely on borough 1985 1989 2001+Covered by None exist sources septic 1andfi 11 s borough tanks Trapper Individual Individual Rely on borough 2001+Attend in No Covered by None exist Creek sources septic 1andfi 11 s other facil iti es borough tanks communities Houston Individual Individual Rely on borough 1983 1983 1983 Covered by None exist sources septic 1andfi 11 s borough tanks Wasilla Serves com-Individual Re lyon borough 1983 1983/1990 1983 Covered by None exist munity only septic 1andfill s borough tanks z I 1985t 3 NPalmer2001+1983 Rely on borough 1989 1990/2001+1983 1983 w 1andfi 11 s Matanuska-NA NA 1985t 2 1987 1987 NA 1983 Provided Susitna in Palmer Borough NA =Not applicable t 1 Calculated from Table N-1 and Table N-8.High population projections are those developed by the Mat-Su Borough Planning Department CDOWL Engineers,1983). t 2 See comparable entry in Table N-8. t 3 The Mat-Su Borough Planning Department estimated this at 1995 in its 1983 Comprehensive Development Plan CDOWL Engineers,1983). IIiII:N-24PlanningDistrictsthatincluderesidentsoutsidecommunityboundaries,TableN-10givesamorepessimisticpicturethatmightbeconsideredahigh-impactprojection.N.1.1.7.1CommunityServicesWATEROnlyAnchorage,Fairbanks,Palmer,andWasillahavecitywatersystems.Remainingresidentsintheproposedprojectarearelyonsmallprivatewatersystemsorindividualwells(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).ThesysteminPalmerhasacapacitytosupply1,368,000gallonsperday(gpd)[5,198,400litersperday(LID)]andtotreat864,000gpd(3,283,200Lid).Averageper-capitadailyuseofwaterinPalmerhasbeen120gpd(456Lid)(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).Palmerisexpandingitssystemcapacityby216,000gpd(820,800Lid).Ifcurrentwater-useratecontinuesaftertheexpansion,thePalmersystemcouldsupportapopulationof13,200.ThismeansthatbasedonTableN-1,thesystemwillhavesufficientcapacityforthetown'sprojectedbaselinepopulation(ISERorMat-SuBoroughprojections)beyondtheyear2001(seealsoTablesN-9andN-10).TheWasillawatersupplyandtreatmentsystemextendstotheconcentrateddowntownareaonly;itisestimatedtobeadequatetoservetwotimesthecurrentpopulation(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-79).ResidentsintheremainingMat-SuBoroughcommunities,inCantwell,Healy,Nenana,andinisolatedareasareservedbyindividualwellsorbysmallsystemsservingresidentialdevelopments,schools,businesses,ormulti-unitdwellings(Univ.ofAlaska,1977;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-79).SEWERSAsisthecaseforwatersystems,fewcommunitiesintheproposedprojectareahavecommunitysewersystems.IntheMat-SuBorough,onlyPalmerhasacitywidesewagetreatmentfacility.Thecapacityofthepresentsystemis500,000gpd(1,900,000Lid),whichissufficienttoserveacommunityof5,000people(StenehjemandMetzger,1980:p.41).BasedonISERandMat-SuBoroughpopulationprojections,thissystemshouldbeadequatetobeyondtheyear2001.Othercommunitiesintheregionrelyonindividualseptictanks,althoughsomesubdivisionsandtrailerparkshavepublicfacilities(Univ.ofAlaska,1977;ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-13).OnlytheCityofHoustonisconsideringbuildingafacilitytoservicethedischargefromprivatesceptictanksintheborough(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-82).SOLIDWASTEDISPOSALTheMat-SuBoroughhandlessolidwastedisposalforallresidentsintheboroughexceptthoseinPalmer,Wasilla,andHouston(incorporatedcommunitieswiththeirownpowerstoprovidethisservice).AnchorageandFairbanksalsoprovidesolidwastedisposalfacilitiesandservices.TheMat-SuBoroughpresentlyoperatesninelandfills,butplanstocentralizedisposalatone80-acre(32-ha)sitenearPalmer.Currently,theincorporatedcommunitiescontractwiththeboroughforuseof1andfi11s.Basedonastandardof0.11acre(0.04ha)of1andfi11requiredper1000personsannually(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-B-3),thenew80-acre(32-ha)landfillwouldsufficefortheboroughuntil2009undertheISERpopulationprojections,butonlyuntil1985underMat-SuBoroughprojections.ProjectionsbytheBoroughPlanningDepartmentindicatethattheTalkeetnaandWi11ow1andfi11siteswi11befi11edwithintenyearsandfiveyears,respectively(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.III-58).OnlyPalmerprovidespickup;otherboroughresidentsmusttransporttheirownwastetoalandfill(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-13-E-5-14).Onceacommunityorregionreachesacertainpopulationdensity,itmaybecomeeconomicallyfeasibleandmorepracticaltoprovidepickupofsolidwastes.ThiswouldparticularlybethecaseiftheMat-SuBoroughfollowsthroughonitsplanforacentralizedlandfillsite.Standardsfortrucksforpickupareonetruckper1,800housingunitsforlow-densityruralareas(StenehjemandMetzger,1980:p.45).Applica-tionofthesestandardstothenumberofhouseholdsprojectedusingISERpopulationprojections(TableN-7)indicatedaprojectedneedforfourboroughtrucksin1985,withanotheraddedby1995.MorewouldbeneededunderBoroughprojections.ItisnotclearwhethertheboroughoranyoftheMat-Sucommunitieswouldchoosetostartsolid-wastepickup,butparticularlyundertheApplicant'sprojections,itmaybeafeasibleandnecessaryplan.Cantwell'slandfillsiteisprivatelyownedandresidentstransporttheirwastestoit(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-14).Paxson,HealyandNenanaalsorelyonprivatelandfilldisposalsites.EDUCATIONSchoolsintheproposedprojectregionareadministeredattheboroughlevelforMat-Sucommuni-ties.Thereare17schoolsintheMat-SuBorough(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.111-46).Thesmallercommunitieshavetheirownelementaryschoolsandsharejuniorandseniorhighschools. N-25Correspondencecoursesareofferedforchildrenoutsidepopulationcenters.Mostoftheschoolsarenotnowfilledtocapacity,withtheexceptionsofelementaryschoolsinTrapperCreekandWjllow,wherethenumberofpupilsdoubledbetween1971and1981(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.111-46).ExpansionsorreplacementsareplannedfortheTrapperCreekandWillowelementaryfacilitiesandforanoldelementaryschoolinWasilla.CapacitiesforstudentsintheseschoolsareshowninTableN-8.Forplanningpurposes,theMat-SuBoroughassumesthat22.8%oftheboroughpopulationwillconsistofschool-agedchildren,dividedapproximatelyevenlybetweenelementaryandsecondaryschools(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).UsingthisboroughstandardandtheISER-basedpopulationprojectionsofTableN-l,thetotalcapacityofallschoolsintheboroughwillbeexceededbyabouttheyear2010.UsingBoroughprojections,schoolsinTalkeetna,Houston,andWasillaneedtobeexpandednow,andschoolsinothercommunitiesbefore1990(TableN-I0).CantwellhasanelementaryschoolandHealyhasahighschool,bothofwhichareadministeredbytheUpperRailbeltSchoolDistrictandfundedbythestate(Univ.ofAlaska,1977).NenanaschoolingisadministeredbytheYukon-KoyukukBoroughSchoolDistrict.PaxsonchildrenattendasmallschooladministeredbytheCopperRiverSchoolDistrict(AlaskaDept.ofCommunityandRegionalAffairs,1983).TheenrollmentofthepublicschoolsystemofFairbanksincreased10%between1980and1982.However,enrollmentswerestill1%lowerthanthe1976peakduringthebuildingoftheTrans-AlaskaPipeline(CommunityResearchCenter,1983).Anchoragesecondaryschoolsareinneedofexpansionnow,basedonthepopulationlevelandthestandardsusedinTableN-9.AlthoughvocationaleducationisbeingencouragedintheMat-SuBorough,onlyonecommunitycollegeexistsintheboroughtoprovideit:Matanuska-SusitnaCommunityCollege.CampusesoftheUniversityofAlaskaarelocatedinAnchorageandFairbanks.FIREPROTECTIONMat-SuBoroughhastenfireprotectionserviceareas,eachwithonefirestation.ThecitiesofPalmerandHoustonhavetheirowncityfiredepartments(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.III-50).OnlyPalmerandWasilla(whjchhasoneoftheboroughfirestations)haveanypaidemployees-twoinPalmerandoneinWasilla.Therestoftheserviceareasarestaffedbyvolunteers.Newequip-menthasrecentlybeenacquiredandsixnewstationsaddedtoreachthepresenttotaloften.Anothersixstationsarecalledforintheborough'sfireprotectionplan(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-17;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:pp.4-98-4-102).ThetenboroughserviceareasandPalmerandHouston'sfiredepartmentstogetherserveapproximately80%oftheboroughpopulation.Theremaining20%wholiveoutsideoftheserviceareasmustrelyonhelpfromneighbors.ThoseresidentsarelocatedinWillow,alongtheParksHighwaybetweenWillowandTrapperCreek,andintheroadlessareasoftheborough(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.III-55).Standardsofonestationandtwopumpertrucksper1,000dwellingunitsinoutlyingruralareas,andonestationandtwopumpertrucksper300to420dwellingunitsinsmallruralcommunitieshavebeenproposed(StenejhemandMetzger,1980:pp.56-57).Applyingthesestandardstobase-lineprojectionsofthenumberofhouseholdsfromTableN-7,Houstonhassufficientservicesthrough2005,butPalmerandWas~llaneedadditionalservicesnow(TableN-9).UnderBoroughprojections,Houstonalsoneedsadditionalfireservicesnow.TheremainderofMat-SuBorough'sresidentsareservedadequatelybyorganizedfireprotectionforcesaccordingtothesestandards.However,shouldthenumberofisolated,dispersed,butroad-accessibleresidentsincrease,someadditionsmaybeneededtocoverthelargerterritory.CurrentcapacitiesareshowninTableN-8.Asmorestationsandequipmentareadded,itwillbemorelikelythattheserviceareaswillbegintohiremorefull-time,paidfiremenratherthanrelyingcompletelyonvolunteers(CorteseandJones,1977;StenejhemandMetzger,1980).Currently,CantwellandHealyhavelocalvolunteerfiredepartments(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).Cantwellisintheprocessofplanningacommunityfireserviceareaandfireprotectionfacili-ties.Onefacilityshouldbeadequatetoservetheprojectedbaselinepopulationofthetownforsomeyears.Anchoragefireservicesemploy298persons;Fairbanksserviceshave59(AlaskaDiv.ofBudgetandManagement,1982a:pp.7,18).Basedonapplicationofstandardsofservice-to-populationratiosusedinTableN-9,bothcitiesneedadditionalfireservicefacilitiesnow.POLICEOnlyAnchorage,Fairbanks,andPalmerhavecitypolicedepartments.Anchorageemploys365persons,Fairbanks27(AlaskaDiv.ofBudgetandManagement,1982a:pp.7,18).Basedonservice-to-populationratiosappliedtocurrentpopulations,bothcitiesneedexpandedpoliceforces(seeTableN-9). N-26AlaskaStateTrooperspatrolMat-SuBoroughandCantwell;17troopersarestationedinPalmer,3inTrapperCreek,and1inCantwell--eachtrooperwithavehicle(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-16-E-5-17;FrankOrth&Assgciates,1982a:pp.4-91-4-98).Healyalsoreliesonstatetroopersforpoliceprotection.Additionally,Palmerhasitsownpoliceforceofeightofficers.Applicationofstandardsofabout4.5officersand0.7vehicleper1,000dwellingunitsinruralcommunitiesand3.0officersand0.5vehicleper1,000dwellingunitsforruralareas(StenejhemandMetzger,1980:p.52)toprojectionsshowninTableN-7indicatesthatcurrentpoliceforcesinPalmerwillsufficebeyond2010,butthatadditionaltroopersareneededforthewholeboroughnow.UsingBoroughprojections,Palmerpoliceforcesalsorequireexpansionnow.Also,anycommunitiesthatincorporatetoserveincreasingpopulationsandmoreconcentratedhousingdevelopmentwillneedpoliceforcesoftheirown,asstandardsforadequateprotectionwillrise(StenejhemandMetzger,1980:p.52).Threedetentionandcorrectionalfacilitiesexistintheborough,withanotherprisonplanned.ThecorrectionalfacilitiesserveAnchorageaswell(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-16-E-5-17;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-94).HEALTHCARECompletehealthcareservicesareprovidedonlyinAnchorage,Fairbanks,andthesouthernportionofMat-SuBorough.Onehospital,ValleyHospitalinPalmer,servestheMat-SuBoroughresidentsforacutehealthcare.Thehospitalisincreasingitscapacityfrom25bedsto30bedsandaddingequipmentandfacilitiesspace.Itscurrentstaffofeightphysicianswillprobablyincreasewiththeexpansion.Thehospitalservesin-andout-patients.Additionally,therearethreep~blichealthcenters(generaluseonesinPalmerandinWasillaandtheCookInletNativeAssociationHealthCareCenterinWasilla),anursinghomeinPalmer,andtwomentalhealthfacilities(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-17-E-5-18;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:pp.4-1024-108;DOWLEngineers,1983:pp.111-47-III-50).Ambulancesand120trainedvolunteeremergenc)medicaltechniciansalsoservePalmer,Wasilla,Willow,Talkeetna,Houston,andTrapperCreek(DOWLEngineers,1983:pp.111-49-III-50).Extensivehealthcarefacilitiesandphysicians'servicesexistinbothAnchorageandFairbanksandservethemetropolitanpopulationsinadditiontoout-andin-patientsfromtheMat-SuandYukon-KoyukukboroughsandfromalloverAlaska(seeTableN-8).In1981,Anchoragehad365physiciansand158dentists,Fairbankshad101physiciansand45dentists(Div.ofManagementandBudget,1982a:pp.4,15).Becausethesefacilitiesandprofessionalsservealargerpopula-tionthantheirownmetropolitanarea,theircapacityandadequacycannotbeestimated.Facili-tiesforthegeneralpublicaswellasforNativeAlaskansareavailableinAnchorage(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:pp.4-103,4-210-4-213).Cantwellhasasmallmedicalclinic,anambulance,andemergencymedicaltechnicians,althoughnophysicianspracticefull-timeinthecommunity.ResidentsofCantwelltraveltoFairbanksorAnchorageformedicalcare.HealyandNenanaalsoeachhaveasmallmedicalclinicservedbymedicaltechnicians,butnoresidentphysicians.Projectionsofhealthcareneedsaremadeprimarilyforhospita1spaceorbeds.Assumingaper-capitauserateinMat-SuBoroughof0.45days(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-107)andusingISERbaselinepopulationprojectionsfromTableN-1,the30-bedhospitalValleyHospitalinPalmerwillbesufficientfortheboroughuntil1995,assumingpresentuserates.By2005,atotalof35bedswouldbeneeded.BoroughplannersalsoassumePalmer'shospital'scapacitywillsufficethrough1995(DOWLEngineers,1983),althoughusingBoroughprojections(TableN-2)andassumingtotalrelianceonthishospitalandnoneonAnchoragefacilities,additionalbedswouldbeneededafter1985.Withtheadditionalbeds,newphysiciansmayalsobeattractedtoValleyHospital.Asthesefacilitiesandservicesincrease,Mat-SuBoroughresidentsmayincreasetheiruseofthisfacilityinsteadofgoingtoAnchorageorFairbanks.Ifso,expansionwouldbeneededbefore1995.Standardsforoutpatientclinics,emergencymedicalcarefacilities,andphysician-to-patientratiosforruralareasarenotavailable,andthusbaselineprojectionscannotbemade.RECREATIONALANDCULTURALFACILITIESAnchorageandFairbanksprovideafullrangeofculturalactivities,aswellascityparks.Mat-SuBoroughhasfourlibraries(TrapperCreek,Talkeetna,Willow,andSutton)andPalmerandWasillaeachhavecitylibrarysystems.TheBoroughhasthreemajormuseums,andonestagetheaterinPalmer(DOWLEngineers,1983:pp.111-60-111-62).Manyoutdoorrecreationalactivities(e.g.,hunting,fishing,camping,andmountaineering)areavailableintheprojectregion.(Foranextensivediscussionoftherecreationalresources,seeAppendixL.)ExceptforsingleparksinbothPalmerandWasilla,therearefewpubliccommunityparksintheborough.However,planscallfordevelopmentofplaygroundsandneighbor-hoodparksassociatedwithschools(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-19).Theboroughdoesprovideandmaintainanumberofballfields,twohockeyrinks,communitycentersinHoustonandWillow,picnicareas,andskitrailsinitscommunities(OOWLEngineers,1983:p.1II-74). N-27AsthepopulationsoftheboroughcommunitiesandofCantwe11increase,sowi11theneedforlocal parks,playgrounds,andrecreationcenters.Applyingastandardofabout4acres[2hectares(ha)]per1,000housingunits(StenehjemandMetzger,1980:p.50)toTableN-7figures,WasillaandPalmerwouldneedabout4acres(about2ha)ofplaygroundsandneighborhoodorcommunityparksbythemid-1980s.MorewouldbeneededunderBoroughprojections.Standardsdonotexistforlow-population-density,ruralcommunitiesanddispersedresidentialareas.Iflotsizesremainlargeandpopulationcenterssmall·intherestofMat-SuBoroughandCantwell,nocommunityparksoropen-spaceareaswouldbenecessary.ELECTRICPOWERElectricpowerissuppliedtoresidentsofthe~1at-SuBoroughbytheMatanuskaElectricAssociation.ResidentsofCantwellpresentlyrelyonindividualgenerators,butarelookingforacommercialpowerprovider(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-22-E-5-23)andmaytieintotheIntertietransmissionlinenowunderconstructionbetweenAnchorageandFairbanks(Ahtnakans,1983).ElectricpowerisprovidedtoFairbanksbyFairbanksMunicipalUtilitiesSystemandGoldenValleyElectricAssociation(CommunityResearchCenter,1983).ThelatterassociationalsoservesHealy(CommonwealthAssoc.,1982).ChugachElectricAssociationsuppliesAnchorage(CommunityResearchCenter,1983).N.l.l.7.2FiscalStatusREVENUESMat-SuBoroughisincorporatedandthushastaxationpowers;oftheindividualcommunitiesintheprojectarea,onlyPalmer,Wasilla,andHoustonareincorporated.MajorsourcesofrevenuefortheMat-SuBoroughanditscommunitiesarepropertytaxes[millrateof4.9onthefullassessedvaluein1982(Campbell,1983)],municipalassistancefunds,andstateandFederallysharedfunds.Totalassessedvalueofallland,businesses,andhomesrose19.2%between1982and1983assessments(Campbell,1983).Becauseofthelackofanindustrialbaseintheborough,nearlyallpropertytaxesarefromresidentialproperties.Revenuesareorganized.intofourfunds.Thegeneralfundiscomposedmostlyofpropertyrevenues,plussmalleramountsfromtheothersources.Theserviceareasfundismadeupofpropertytaxes(30%in1981-1982budget)andofstate-sharedandmunicipalassistancefunds(70%).Thelandmanagementfundisaverysmallportionofboroughrevenues(3%)andisfromstategrantsandlandmanagementfees.Theeducationoperatingfundisthelargestportionoftheboroughrevenue(58%in1981-1982),asistrueofmostsmallcommunities(BurchellandListokin,1978).Thestateisthemajorsourceoffunds(approximately70%).Thestatealsoreimburses90%ofschoolbondedindebtedness,butthereisalaginreimbursements(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-19-E-5-21;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).Per-capitarevenueforthegeneral,servicearea,andlandmanagementfundsin1981wasabout$1,000;fortheschooldistrictbudgetitwasabout$1,100.Ifresidentialbuildingandthepopulationcontinuetoincreaseatafairlyevenrate,theboroughmaybeabletocontinuetorelyononlypropertytaxesonlyfromresidences.However,theBoroughPlanningDepartmentisalsoattemptingtoattractindustry.Themillrateintheboroughwillalsoprobablyrisefrom4.9to6.0or7.0onthefullassessedvalue(R.Schulling,Mat-SuBoroughPlanningDepartment,personalcommunicationtoB.A.Payne,ArgonneNationalLaboratory,June21,1983).Palmerleviesasalestaxof2%ongrossretailsalesandapropertytaxof4millsontheassessedvaluationtoaddtoitsrevenuesfromboroughandstatefunds.WasillaandHoustonrevenuesarebasedprimarilyonboroughandstatefunds(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a;CityofPalmer,1983;CityofHouston,1983).Actualorprojectedbudgetsofrevenuesandexpendituresbetweenfiscalyears1982and1983changedlessthan1%inbothPalmerandHouston(CityofPalmer,1983;CityofHouston,1983).Talkeetnaadministersboroughrevenuefromlocaltaxesandfromstaterevenuestoprovideroad,fire,andfloodcontrolservices.TrapperCreekleviesnotaxesandhasnoadministrativeresponsibilities(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-21).NeitherCantwellnorHealycanlevytaxesandbothrelyprimarilyonstategrantsandonannualstate-sharedrevenues.SomeadditionalfundingforcommunityservicesinCantwellcomesfromper-capitagrantsviatheNativevillagecouncil(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-21-E-5-22).AnchorageandFairbanksbothlevypropertytaxesatratesthatvarydependingonserviceareaswithinthemetropolitanareas.Neithercityimposesasalestax(AlaskaDiv.ofBudgetandManagement,1982a:pp.7,18). N-28EXPENDITURESAsisthecaseinmostruralareas,theMat-SuBoroughSchoolDistrictwasthelargestboroughbudgetitemin1981,averaging$5,650perpupil.Roadmaintenanceabsorbedthenextlargestportionofthebudget,at$33percapita.Totalexpendituresfromthegeneralfund(includingambulance,sanitarylandfill,library,roadmaintenance,andadministration),serviceareafund(fireandpoliceprotection),andlandmanagementfundwereabout$22million,orabout$1,000percapita(calculatedfromFrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).Whenshortfallshaveoccurredinboroughbudgetsinthepast,thestatehascontributedtothebudgettopreventdeficits(ExhibitEVol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-20-E-5~21;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).ExpendituresfortheMat-SuBoroughSchoolDistrictwereabout$1,100percapita.Theschooldistrictcurrentlyhasacapitalimprovementsplancallingforcompletionofnumerousimprove-mentsoradditionstoschoolfacilities.Thetotalbudgetrequirementsfortheseitemshavebeenprojectedthroughfiscalyear1987.Therequirementspeakin1986atabout$19million,droppingto$8.5millionin1987.Mat-SuBoroughwillpayforabout80%ofthesecapitalimprovementexpenses,andthestateisexpectedtofinancetheremainder(ExhibitE,VoL7,eChap.5,pp.E-5-20-E-5-21;FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:pp.4-45-4-51).AllofthecommunitiesinMat-SuBoroughrelyontheboroughfortheireducationsystems.Palmer'smajorexpendituresin1981wereforpubli£works,administration,andpolice(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a).WasillaandHoustonmadetheirmajorexpendituresinadministrationandroadmaintenance(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:pp.4-61and4-70).Talkeetna'sexpendituresinroadmaintenancewereabouttwo-thirdsofitstotalexpendituresin1981(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-72).Cantwellwillepaytomaintainitsfireprotectionfacilitieswhentheyareacquired.Itsschoolissupportedalmostentirelybystate(87%)andfederalgovernment(8%)reVenues(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-22).ExpendituresbyAnchorageandFairbanksinfiscal1981/1982areshowninTableN-11.N.1.1.8TransportationBesideshavingtheirownnetworksofroadways,FairbanksandAnchoragearejunctionsofmajortransportationroutes.Bothhaveairportsformajorcarriers,terminalsformajorraillines,andareintersectionsforprimarytrans-Alaskaroadways.Anchorageadditionallyhasashipport.~othcitiesaremajorcommercialandtransportationcentersforthestate.Transportationfacilitiesinareasclosertotheproposedprojectsitearediscussedbelow.TableN-11.FiscalYear1981-82PerCapitaExpendituresbyAnchorageandFairbanksGovernmentsforCommunityServicesMunicipalityCityofServiceofAnchorageFairbanksPolice$153$135Fire100142Ambulance19NAParksandrecreation5635Library21NAHealthcare25NATransportation84NASewage254110Solidwastedisposal59NAWater34883PublicworksNA102ElectricityNA360Roadrepair$28,550permileNAEducation$7,730perpupil$5,400perpupilNA:Notavailable-.~.>.,Source:FrankOrth&Associates(1982a),pp.4-192-4-193and4-195-4-196. N-29N.1.1.8.1RoadandHighwayFewroadwaystraversetheregionaroundtheproposedSusitnaprojectsite.Themajornorth-southhighwayistheParksHighway,whichistheprimaryroutebetweenAnchorageandFairbanks,adistanceofabout350miles[560kilometers(km)](seeFig.N-1).TheParksHighwayisapavedroadwhichparallelstheraillineformostofitslengthandconnectsthecommunitiesalongtheRailbeltbetweenthemetropolitanareasofthetwolargecities.AspurfromthehighwaygoestoTalkeetna.Thehighwaywasbuilttomeetprojectedneedsthroughtheyear2000,andforthemajorityofitslength(exceptaroundWasilla)iscurrentlyusedatonlyabout10%ofcapacity.AnexpansionisnowbeingbuiItintheWasillaarea.Trafficisamixtureofpersonalandrecreationalvehiclesandcommercialtrucks(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-14-E-5-15).Asecondnorth-southhighway,theRichardsonHighway,extendseastoftheproposedprojectarea,connectingValdezandFairbanks.ItistheoldestroadinthestateandwasusedheavilyduringconstructionoftheTrans-AlaskaPipeline.Asaresultofthisheavyuse,sectionsoftheroadareinpoorcondition.Thepavedhighwayistwolaneswidemostofitslength(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1982a:p.4-206).TheDenaliHighwayconnectsCantwellontheParksHighwaywithPaxsonontheRichardsonHighway;itisabout130mi(200km)long.Openonlyinthesummermonths,theDenaliHighwayisagravelroadusedmainlybytouristsandhuntersinpassengervehicles.Averagedailytrafficvolumealongthehighwayrangesfrom50to120vehicles(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-15).MaintenanceoflocalroadsintheMat-SuBoroughisbytheboroughanditsindividualcommunities.Yukon-KoyukukBoroughisnotincorporatedandsoitscommunities(Cantwell,Healy,andNenana)oftenhaveunmaintainedroads(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-15).N.1.1.8.2RailTheAlaskaRailroadconnectsAnchorageandFairbanksandforthemostpartparallelstheParksHighwaythroughtheregionoftheproposedprojectarea.Italsoservessomecommunitiesandresidenceswithoutroadaccess.Thelinecarriesfreight(atanestimated20%ofcapacity)andpassengers(dailyinthesummer,twiceperweekinthewinter).Onspecifiedtrips,thetrainwillstopwhenflaggedatanypointalongitsroutetopickupordroppassengers,thusprovid-inganimportantlinkforisolatedresidentstolargepopulationandcommercialcenters(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-16).N.1.1.8.3AirInadditiontolargecommercialairportsinAnchorageandFairbanks,mostofthecommunitiesintheprojectareahaveairstripsforsmallaircraft(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,TableE.5.5).Thesestripsareoftenusedbytouristsforaccesstotheareaorfortake-offtomoreremotewildernessareas,e.g.,isolatedlakesorbasecampsformountaineeringtrips.Airtravelbysmallplaneandfloatplaneisarelativelycommontravelmodebecauseoftheinaccessibilityofmanyareasofthestate,especiallyinwinter.N.1.2SusitnaDevelopment-AlternativesN.1.2.1AlternativeDamLocationsandDesignsAllthealternativedamlocationsanddesignsintheSusitnaBasinwouldbelocatedinthesameexistingenvironmentastheproposedSusitnadevelopment.ThissettingincludesalloftheMatanuska-SusitnaBorough;thetownsofCantwell,Healy,Nenana,andPaxson;andthemetropolitanareasofAnchorageandFairbanks.Foradescriptionofallaspectsofthatsocioeconomicenviron-ment,refertoSectionN.1.1.N.1.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutesTheexistingsocioeconomicenvironmentofalltheaccessroutealternativeswouldbethesameasthatdescribedinSectionN.1.l.Nativeconcernsareparticularlyimportantintheexistingenvironmentoftheaccessroutes,asNativegroupscontrolorwilleventuallyacquirecontrolofmuchofthelandintheSusitnaBasinarea.AllNativeorganizations,includinglocalcorporationsandtheCookInletRegion,Inc.(CIRI)regionalgroupareinterestedindevelopingSusitnaBasinlandforhunting,guiding,trapping,etc.,andtodevelopNativebusinessesbasedontheseuses.Projectroadswouldprovideaccesstothislandfortheserecreationalandbusinesspursuits.However,Nativeorganizationsaredividedintheirpreferencesforaccessroutes.Theorganizationseachprefertheroutethatwouldbringthegreatestaccesstotheirindividuallands.CIRIholdslandsaroundandtothesouthoftheproposedimpoundments;AhtnaNativeCorporationholdslandsalongtheDenaliHighway.Thus,CIRIandtheTyonekNativeCorporationpreferthesouthernaccess N-30route;andAhtna,supportedbytheCantwellVillageCouncil,supportstheproposedpen:,!li-Northroute.NoNativegroupssupportthenorthernroute(FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommlsslon,1983;ExhibitE,Vol.9,Chap.10:p.E-10-48).N.1.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutesAllthealternativepowertransmissionroutessharethesocioeconomicenvironmentdescribedinSectionN.1.1.FromthesitesouthtoAnchorage,allroutesareintheMat-SuBorough;northofthesite,allbeginintheMat-SuBorough,theneithertraversetheYukon-KoyukukBoroughviaareascoveredinSectionN.1.1,orcrosssparselypopulatedlandtoenterFairbanksdirectlyfromthesouth.Mostoftheterritorycrossedbythealternativeroutesissparselypopulated,e.g.,neartheRailbeltorinrecreationareas,orisunpopulated.However,thesouthernsegmentalternativesaroundPalmerandAnchorageandthoseenteringFairbanksfromthesouthwouldcrossmoredenselysettledland.ThesepopulationcentersaredescribedinSectionN.1.1.N.1.2.4AlternativeBorrowSitesAllalternativeborrowsitesarelocatedinunpopulatedareasandareofcommercialinterestonlyinthecontextofthehunting,trapping,fishing,andotherdispersedrecreationalandtouristusesoftheseareas.TheseinterestsaredescribedinSectionN.1.1.N.1.3Non-SusitnaGenerationAlternativesLocationsofthecommunitiesandBoroughsdescribedbelowareshowninFig.N-3.N.1.3.1Natural-Gas-FiredGenerationScenarioThesocioeconomicenvironmentsofthepotentialsitesoftheeight200-MWcombined-cycleunitsaretheTyonekareasouthwestofAnchorage,thenorthernKenaiPeninsula,andtheAnchoragemetropolitanarea.Thepotentialsitesofthetwo70-MWcombustionturbinesusinggaswouldbenearAnchorage.ThesocioeconomicenvironmentofAnchorageisdescribedinSectionN.1.1.DescriptionsofthesocioeconomicenvironmentsofnorthernKenaiPeninsulaandoftheTyonekareaaregivenbelow.N.1.3.1.1NorthernKenaiPeninsulaTwoofthe200MWcombined-cycleunitswouldbelocatedsouthofAnchorageandnorthofKenaiontheKenaiPeninsula.Soldotna,anotherofthepeninsula'slargecommunities,liesafewmilessoutheastofKenai.Bothofthesecommunitiesandsomesmall,unincorporatedsettlementsnorthofKenai(e.g.,SalamatofandNikishka)arelocatedinwhatiscalledtheCentralPeninsulaareaoftheKenaiPeninsulaBorough.Theeconomyandwayoflifeoftheareaarereliantonfishingandtimberindustries,oilandgasdevelopment,tourism,andonsubsistenceactivities.TheKenaiPeninsulaBoroughprovidesplanningandzoning,education,andsolidwastedisposalservicesandassessesandco11ectstaxes.Italsoadministerstwohospitalserviceareas,twofireserviceareas,andonerecreationserviceareaforresidentsofthepeninsula.Sixboroughcommunitieshaveorganizedgovernments:Kenai,Soldotna,Homer,Seldovia,Seward,andKachemak.AllexceptKachemakareempoweredtocollecttaxes,providecommunityservices,andhavecompre-hensivedevelopmentplans,althoughtheymayalsocooperatewiththeboroughonservices(e.g.,forhospitals-seebelow)(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.3,98-177).Citizensintheareahaveexpressedconcernthatresourcedevelopment"beconsistentwiththeirpresentlifestylesandvalues",andarethusactiveinevaluatingdevelopmentplans(U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers,1982:p.78).Thepopulationoftheboroughisconcentrated(almost90%)onthewestsideoftheKenaiPeninsulainthecommunitiesofKenai,Soldotna,Homer,andSeldovia(seeFig.N-3).The1982populationsofKenaiandSoldotnawere5,231and3,008persons,respectively.NorthandnortheastoftheKenai-Soldotnaarea,the1982populationtotaled4,120,including2,014inNikishka1,143inSalamatof,andtheremainderscatteredoutsidecommunities(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.25and28).Theboroughpopulationincreasedby28%between1978and1982;thecityofKenaiincreasedby20%andSoldotnaby27%duringthatsameperiod.AswithotherareasinAlaska,thepopulationoftheareahasbeenthrough"boomandbust"periodsinresponsetophasesofdeve1opmentofnaturalresources.Stabilityinthepopulationvariesbycommunity.A1977boroughsurveyshowedthatover35%ofKenai'spopulationand50%ofSoldotna'shadmovedthereduringtheprevioustwoyears.Around35%ofeachthesecommunitypopulationshadlivedinthecommunityatleastsince1970.Thesamesurveyshowedthatalmost40%oftheresidentsoftheHomerandSeldoviaareashadlivedthereover11yearsandexpectedtoremainforthenext5years.ThemedianageintheBoroughin1980was27years.PopulationinKenaiandSoldotnaisover90%White;theremainderisprimarilyNativeAlaskan(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983). N-31,.--,..-'AlternativesoHydrooGasoCoal6SusitnaDelta..Junctiortr..,..I"'...I....../'~~..III,I'\'...(-"""-"""";:Paxson,I\I,I,I ,1,I""...;,..I'----~--...,,--l59Miles\\,1................................_---.•.............................,,---~-...--':z:0lf)r--------..,...-------.,,--,!!::::::="'d!W,:z:°V<D:z:on<0ot-tozoatoo:B1S1"<:-:o;--w----,......--L..---.;..-..,r:-o---....151'W149'W147'W145WFigu"N-3.MapShow;ngLocation,ofCo..unit;"andPO];ticaJUnit,inth,VicinityofAllAlternativeSites. N-32Ifindustrialdevelopment--especiallyinfishing--intheKenaiareacontinues,andifproposeddevelopmentofBelugacoal,offshoreoil,andaliquifiednaturalgasfacilitytak~place--asplanned,rapidgrowthwouldcontinueontheKenaiPeninsula(U.S.ArmyCorpsof~nglnee~s,1982:p.78;KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev:Office,1~83:p.11~).ABoroughPlannlng9fflcestudyusesthreewidelyranginggrowthscenarlOS.Thehlghscenarlo,basedontheassumptlonthatalltheabovedevelopmentsoccur,projects106%populationgrowth,toatotalof55,055persons,between1978and1992.Underthemediumcase,moremoderategrowthataslowerpaceinthesameareasagrowthof48%,to39,305persons,isprojectedbetween1978and1992.Theassumptionsofthelowcasearedecliningoilproduction,noBelugacoaldevelopment,andlittlechangeinotherindustrialandresourcedevelopment,givingapopulationgrowthofonly3.3%,to26,748persons,between1978and1992(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.118-119).Theactual1982populationexceededthegrowthprojectionsfor1982underthelowandmediumcases,7,000and4,000persons,respectively,althoughtheactualfigureswere4,000personsbelowthehighcase1982projection.TheoilandgasindustryformstheeconomicbaseofcentralandnorthernKenaiPeninsula(Kenai,Soldotna,andboroughresidentstothenorth).Thesouthernpeninsulaisreliantoncommercialfishingandprocessing,andontourism.Employmentstatisticsareavailableonlybycensusdivision,combiningthesouthernKenaiPeninsulaareawiththenorthernKenai-Soldotnaarea.Employmentisconcentratedingovernment(1,410in1980),manufacturing(1,295),services(994),andwholesaleandretailtrades(264and951,respectively).In1982,theaverageunemploymentratewas15.3%,upfromabout13%in1981,whenthetotallaborforcewas11,350(AlaskaDept.ofLabor,1983).AswithotherareasinAlaska,theunemploymentrateishigh,variescon-siderablyseasonally,andhasrangedwidelyoverthepastdecade--fromalowof8.7%in1975toahighof16%in1973(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.53and55).Per'capitaincomeintheboroughin1980was$10,158,whichranked18thamongAlaska's29censusdivisions(OfficeofManagementandBudget,1983:p.73).ThisvalueishigherthantheU.S.per-capitaincomelevel;however,whenthisvalueisadjustedforthehighcostoflivinginthearea,itislessthanthesimilarlyadjustedU.S.value(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983).Totalassessedpropertyvalue,excludingstate-assessedoil-relatedproperties,intheBoroughhasincreaseddramatically--byalmost600%(notadjustedforinflation)--since1972,mostofthechangeoccurringbetween1975and1979.Unlikemanyruralareasthatrelyheavilyonpropertytaxesforrevenues,however,personalandpropertytaxesmakeuponlyslightlymorethanathird(39%)oftotalboroughrevenues;intergovernmentalsources(e.g.,fromthestate)contribute45%oftotalrevenues.Thepercentageoftotalrevenuethatisfromthissourceisexpectedtobeevenlarger(over50%)intheFiscalyearbudget.Incontrast,thecitiesofKenaiandSoldotnarelyonpersonalpropertytaxesforover50%oftheirrevenues.Schoolsarethegreatestexpense·(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.66-70,P.75;U.S.BureauLandManagement,1981:pp.17-24).KenaiandSoldotnadroppedtheirpropertytaxratesdramaticallyduringthelastdecade.Kenai'sratewentfromahighof16.75millsin1975-1976,toalowof4.21millsin1981-1982.Soldotna'sratedroppedfrom15.0millsin1974-1975to6.35in1981-1982.Boroughratesalsohavedroppedsteadily,from5.0millsbetween1972and1978,to1.75millsinFiscalYear1981-1982.In1982,Kenaihadasalestaxof3%;Soldotnahad2%;andtheboroughhadanadditionalsalestaxof2%(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.71-72).In1977,KenaiandSoldotnahadabout1,300and700households,respectively(calculatedfromKenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:Tables5andll).Since1978,Kenaihasauthorizedthebuildingofabout400additionalhousingunits,andSoldotnaanadditional277.Mostofthesewereauthorizedduring1979or1982,withalullinbuildingbetweentheseyears.ThedistributionofhousingbytypeispresentedinTableN-12.Single-familyunitsarethemostcommonhousingtypeinallcommunities.In1980,about60%ofKenairesidentsand70%ofSoldotna'sownedtheirhomes.RentalwasmorecommoninKenai-justunder40%unitswererented-thaninSoldotna,wherearound30%wererented.Vacancyratesforapartmentsvaryseasonally,ashighasabout31%inKenaiinFebruaryof1981toaslowasnovacanciesinSoldotnainJune1981(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.30, 34,37,38).TheBoroughDevelopmentOfficestatesthat"[e]xpandedmotel/hotelandpubliccampgroundaccommoda-tions"areneededtosatisfythegrowingtouristindustry(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.13).Total1982schooldistrictenrollmentintheCentralPeninsulaarea,includingKenaiandSoldotna,was4,666,up22%from1978.Bothcommunitieshaveafullrangeofelementaryandsecondaryschools.Oneelementaryschool(NikiskiElementary)islocatednorthofKenai.Ithashadanenrollmentofabout400studentssince1978.ThereisalsoacommunitycollegeinKenaiandastatevocationaltechnicalschoolinSeward(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.51-52). N-33TableN-12.ResidencyDistributionbyHousingTypeinCommunitiesoftheKenaiPeninsula.Borough(1982)ResidencyDistribution(%)t1CommunityMobileSingleFamilyApartmentHomeOtherKenaiSoldotnaHomerSeldoviaSeward54.961.055.782.067.332.523.721.84.631.512.515.322.412.90.40.1o0.10.50.8t1Percentageofpopulationresidingineachhousingtype.Source:KenaiPeninsulaBoroughResourceDevelopmentOffice(1983),p.38.Mosthouseholdsinthetwocommunitiesrelyoncitywaterandsewersystems:water-about61%ofthehouseholdsinKenai,and57%inSoldotna;sewers-about61%inKenai,and68%inSoldotna.Othersinthecommunitiesandoutsidetheboundariesrelyonwellwaterandseptictanks.HomerElectricServiceprovidespowerforKenaiandSoldotna.Gasistheprimeheatingfuelforaboutthree-quartersofthehouseholdsinKenaiandSoldotna(KenaiPeninsulaBar.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.16,39,106).KenaiandSoldotnaeachhavetheirowncitypolicedepartments.Fireserviceisprovidedbyeachcityandbyborough-administeredserviceareadepartments.Thelatteraresupportedbypropertytaxesinthe.serviceareas.Morefireserviceareas(atleastthree)andequipmentadditionsarebeingconsidered.Therearethreegeneralhospitalswithin-andout-patientcareintheborough,andanursinghomeinSeward.ThecentralPeninsulaGeneralHospitalisinSoldotna.Thehospitalsdonothaveawiderangeofspecia1tycarefacilities,soresidentsmusttraveltoAnchoragefortheseservices.Therearealsothreedistrictmentalhealthcarecenters,oneofwhichisinKenai(KenaiPeninsulaBar.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.17,46-49,116-117).TheKenaiPeninsulaisaccessiblebyhighwayfromAnchorage.SterlingHighway(Highway1)isamajorroadwayonthePeninsulaandpassesthroughKenaiandSoldotna.ThehighwayextendstotheHomerarea,andSewardHighway(Highway9)branchesoffittoSeward.Smallerroads,mostunpaved,extendnorthofKenaitoSalamatofandtheareaaroundNikishka.AverageannualdailytrafficonHighway1inSoldotnarosebyabout12%between1981and1982,andby115%between1972and1982,toa19821eve1of3,089vehic1es.AverageannualdailytrafficfluctuatesseasonallyfromahighinJulyofabout1-2/3timestheannualaverage,toonlyabout60%oftheannualaverageinJanuary.About50%ofthetrafficispassengervehicles,45%pickupandcampers,andabout8%trucksorbuses(KenaiPeninsulaBar.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.86,88).BetweenJune1andSeptember1,regularserviceisprovidedbystateferriesbetweenAnchorageandHomer,Seldovia,andontoKodiakIsland,andbetweenKodiakIslandandSeward.Fishingboats,personalboats,commercialships,andbargesalsoservethecoastalareasofthepeninsula.Waterroutesarereliedontobringequipmentandworkerstoremoteenergydevelopments.RailserviceonthepeninsulaisavailableonlybetweenAnchorageandSeward,viaPortage(Rand-McNally,1983).ThecityofKenaihasamunicipalairportthathasrecentlybeenrenovated(KenaiPeninsulaBar.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.45,107).Homeralsohasastripwhichcanhandlejettraffic.UseofboththeKenaiandHomerairportsisbelowcapacity.Otherairstripsforsmallplanesarescatteredaroundthepeninsula,primarilynearcommunitiesandresourcedevelopmentoperations(U.S.BureauofLandManagement,1981:p.47).N.1.3.1.2TyonekAreaTyonekislocatedbetweentheChuitnaandBelugariversonthewesternshoreofCookInlet(seeFig.N-3).Twoofthecombined-cycleunitswouldbeonthelowerBelugaRiver,threeothersontheChuitna.Tyonekistheonlypopulationconcentrationinthearea.TyonekislocatedinwhatiscalledtheWesternPeninsulaareaoftheKenaiPeninsulaBorough.Thisarea,combinedwiththeCentralandSouthernPeninsulaAreas(includingthelarger'boroughcommunitiesofKenai,Soldotna,Homer,andSeldovia,andmanysmallercommunitiesalongthewestcoastandsoutherntipofthePeninsula),makeuptheCookInletCensusDivision.BecauseofthesparsepopulationinTyonekandtheWesternPeninsula,dataisoftennotavailableforthevillageortheTyonek-Beluga-areaindependentofthecensusdivision. N-34TyonekisaNativeAlaskanvillagewhichhad.apopulationof239in1980-:only7p:rsonsmorethanin1970.Theonlynon-Nativesinthevlllageareteacherswhoremalnasresldentsforperiodsofayearorso.Themedianageis16.6yearsformalesand18.6yearsforfemales(1980),about10yearsyoungerthanfortherestoftheboroughorthestate(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-85,6-104).Thefor-profitTyonekNativeCorporationrepresentstheNativesinthevillage.ThecorporationisamemberoftheCookInletRegion,Inc.TheTyonekNativeCorporationhastherighttodeterminethedevelopmentanduseofitslands[morethan115,000acres(47,000hal],andtoleaseparcelsfordevelopmentbyothers.Thepolicyofthecorporationinthepasthasbeennottoalloweasementsandrights-of-wayacrosstheirland,thuslimitingthedevelopmentofnaturalresourcesintheTyonekarea(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-87-6-89).TyonekisaFederallycharteredNativevillage,butisnotanincorporatedcityunderAlaskalaw.TheVillageCounciliscurrentlyconsideringincorporationinordertoassumemoreresponsibilityandcontrolofVillageland,growth,andimprovement(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-90-6-91).EmploymentopportunitiesintheTyonekareaarelimitedtoafewservicejobsintheVillageandtojobsinthedevelopmentofnaturalresources,e.g.,commercialfishing,timberharvestingandprocessing,andexplorationforpetroleum.Mostoftheseopportunitiesareseasonal,andthusunemploymentishigh,particularlyinwinter.Personalincomeislow;a1980surveyfoundthat70%ofthe40householdssampled(about35%ofthetotalhouseholdsinthecommunity)hadhouse-holdincomesoflessthan$10,000peryear(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983).Thisfigureisonlyslightlyabovethe1978percapitaincomeof$9,408fortheKenai/CookInletCensusDivision.Itisconsiderablylowerthanthe$28,864annual"familybudgetrequiredforamoderatestandardofliving"in1979,accordingtotheAlaskaDepartmentofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.60).AllthehouseholdssurveyedreliedonNative/PublicHealthbenefitsorsomeotherformofaid(e.g.,foodstamps,SocialSecurity)tosupplementtheirincomes(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-104-6-107).BecauseofstrongtiestothehistoricalNativeAlaskanculture,thelackofemploymentopportuni-ties,andthelowincomesintheWesternPeninsula,thereisheavyrelianceonsubsistenceactivities.Traditionalmodesofhunting,fishing,andgatheringprovidefoodandcontributetosocialandculturalcohesion.Subsistenceactivities,likeemploymentopportunities,aremoreproductiveandaccessibleduringthesummermonths(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-99,6-107-6-108).TheTyonekVillageisintheCentralHospitalServiceArea,towhichresidentspaypropertytaxes.Theserviceareasupportsthehospital(locatedinSoldotnaontheKenaiPeninsula),fireservices,andpublicrecreationfacilities.Themillratein1982was4.37,downabout0.5fromthatchargedin1979through1981(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.70-71).Nearlyallofthe90orsohomesinTyonekaresingle-familyresidencesownedbytheTyonekVillageCouncil.Thereareonlysixtrailers(twoaretemporaryresidencesforschoolteachers)andnomultifamilyunits.Workercampsareprovidedforpermanentandtemporaryworkforcesonthenearbylumbermill,gas-firedgenerationfacilities,andcrudeoilprocessingplantsandpipeline(CookInletRegion,Inc.andPlacerAmexInc.,1983:pp.10-1,10-2).Onetemporarylodgingfacility,theShirleyvilleLodge,hascapacityfor24persons(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-110-6-111).Vacancyratesarenotavailable,butbecausesomuchofthehousingisinsingle-familyunits,therateisprobablyverylow.Itmayalsovaryseasonally,asischaracteristicofAlaskancommunitiesdependentonseasonalindustriesforemployment.Informationontheavail-abilityofrentalunits,asidefromthelodge,isalsonotavailable.Thevillagehasitsownwatersystem,whichdependsonalakeasitsource.Allhousesareonthissystem.Wellwaterisusedforallpublicbuildingsandservices,andbythetimberandpetroleumexplorationindustries.Largeseptictanksprovidethevillagewithwastewaterdisposal.Thesetanksareinneedofimprovementsandmaintenance(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-114-6-115).PoliceserviceisprovidedbyaresidentconstablewhoisemployedbytheAlaskaStateTroopers.Industrialconstructioncampsprovidetheirownsecurityforces.TheU.S.BureauofLandManage-mentprovidesfireprotectionservicesinTyonek(Bechtel,1983:p.6-113).AmedicalcenterinTyonekhasmedicalanddentalcarefacilities,butnodoctorsordentistsareinpermanentresidenceinthecommunity.Emergencyhealthcarecanbeprovidedbyaresidentlicensedpracticalnurse,acommunityhealthaide,thepoliceconstable,ortheU.S.AirForce.Nativesreceivehealthcarewithoutchargefromthecommunityhealthaide,whoseservicesareprovidedbytheU.S.PublicHealthService.Formoreextensivecare,residentsmustgotoAnchorageortotheKenaiBorough'sCentralHospitalinSoldotna(Bechtel,1983:p.6-114).ThereisoneschoolinTyonekthatserveselementarythroughhighschoolstudents.InOctober1982,89studentswereenrolled.Enrollmenthasfluctuatedbetween86and107overthefourpreviousyears(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.51).Capacityoftheschoolfacilitiesis240students(Bechtel,1983:p.6-111). N-35TyonekandtheChuitnaandBelugaRiverareasareaccessiblebyunpavedroads,somebuiltbyalocalloggingcompany.Mostroadsdonotpenetratefarinlandfromthecoast.Theroadsareinrelativelygoodcondition.However,noroadbetweenTyonek,theBelugaarea,andAnchorageisopenyear-round,exceptwhentheSusitnaRiverfreezestoprovideawintercrossing.Ayear-roundroadhasbeenproposedandplanned, butwillnotbeconstructedunlessresourceandotherdevelopmentoccursintheBelugaarea,e.g.,developmentoftheBelugacoalfield(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-116-6-118).Airaccessisprimarilyviaanairportoperatedbythevi11age.Thevillagehasretainedresponsibilityforthisairfield,despitelargeexpenses,inordertocontrolpermissiontoland.Therearealsoseveralotherprivatelyowned,smaller,andlesswell-maintainedstripsinthearea(Bechtel,1983:pp.6-91-6-92,6-119~.Tyonekandindustrialoperationsalongthecoastalsoareservedbybarge(Bechtel,1983:p.6-119).N,1.3.2Coal-FiredGenerationScenarioThecoalminethatwouldsupplythefive200-MWcoalunitsandten70-MWcombustionturbineswouldbetheUsibelliMinenearthecommunityofHealyintheYukon-KoyukukBorough.TwoofthecoalunitswouldbeinWillowinthesouthernRailbelt,andthreemoreinNenana,northofHealyandalsointheYukonKoyukukBorough.Thesocioeconomicenvironmentsofallofthesecommuni-tiesaredescribedinSectionN.1.1.Theten70MWcombustionturbineswouldbelocatedaroundCookInlet,includingtheTyonekarea,metropolitanAnchorage,andthenorthernKenaiPeninsula.AnchorageisdescribedinSectionN.1.1;thenorthernKenaiPeninsulaandtheTyonekareainSectionN.1.3.1.N.1.3.3CombinedHydro-ThermalGenerationScenarioLocationsofthefivepotentialhydropowerfacilitiesareshowninFigureN-3.ThesocioeconomicenvironmentofJohnsonincludesthecommunitiesofTok,DeltaJunction,andmetropolitanFairbanks.TheKeetnahydropoweralternativewouldbelocatednearTalkeetnaintheMat-SuBorough.ThisalternativecouldaffectothercommunitiesalongtheRailbelt,andthemetropolitanareasofAnchorageandFairbanks.SnowwouldbesitednearthesoutheasterncoastlineoftheKenaiPeninsula.ItssocioeconomicenvironmentwouldincludethecityofSewardandtheEasternPeninsulasectionoftheKenaiPeninsulaBorough.TheBrownehydropoweralternativeincludesinitssocioeconomicenvironmentthecommunitiesofHealyandNenanaintheYukon-KoyukukBorough,metropolitanFairbanks,andtheRailbeltcommunitiesinnorthernMat-SuBorough.TheChakachamnasitewouldbeintheTyonekarea.ThethermalunitsinthisscenariowouldbeasubsetofthosedescribedinSectionsN.1.3.1andN.1.3.2.TheirsocioeconomicenvironmentswouldincludeNenana,Healy,metropolitanFairbanks,thenorthernRailbelt,theTyonekarea,andmetropolitanAnchorage.Mostofthesocioeconomicsettingsforthecomponentsofthisscenariohavebeendescribedpreviously.Healy,Nenana,Paxson,theentireRailbelt,Talkeetna,Anchorage,andFairbanksaredescribedinSectionN.1.1.TheTyonekareaandthenorthernKenaiPeninsulaaredescribedinSectionN.1.3.1.Thus,onlySeward,theEasternPeninsulasectionoftheKenaiPeninsula,Tok,DeltaJunction,andtheareabetweenTokandDeltaJunctionaredescribedinthissection.N.1.3.3.1SewardAreaandtheEasternKenaiPeninsulaTheSnowhydropoweralternativewouldbelocatednearthesoutheasterncoastlineoftheKenaiPeninsula.Thenearest.populationcenterisSeward,whichisthelargestpopulationcenterontheeasternhalfoftheKenaiPeninsula(calledtheEasternPeninsula),witha1982populationof1,828.Thepopulationhasdeclinedinthelastthreeyears,butisstillabout3%greaterthanin1978.TheSewardCensusDivision,whichincludesSewardandtheeasterncoastalareasoftheKenaiPeninsula,hasincreasedby31%since1970,toa1982totalof3,500.Thesefigures,althoughhigh,arelowerthanthosefortherestoftheKenaiPeninsulaBorough.Ina1977survey,almost50%ofSewardresidentsquestionedsaidtheyhad.livedthere11ormoreyears(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.27-28,31).Seward'spopulationin1980hadthehighestmedianageintheborough:28.7years,andthelowestpercentageofitspopulationunderage18:only24%.Fifteenpercentofthecity'sresidentswerenon-white(1980)(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.30).Projectionsofpopulationhavebeenmadebytheboroughthrough1992.(SeediscussionoftheprojectionassumptionsinSec.N.1.3.1.1.)Thelow-caseprojectionfortheSewardCensusDivisionisanincreaseto3,507personsin1992(1.1%annualgrowthbetween1978and1992);thehighcaseis4,946persons(4.6%annualgrowthrate).Peakgrowthof10%annuallyunderthehighcaseisexpectedbetween1982and1987(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.121). N-36Sewardisahome-rulecityandthushaspowertotaxitscitizens,toprovideeducationandothercommunityservices,andtoplanandzone.AJlGrowthManagementStrategyJlwasdevelopedin1979fortheSewardarea.Thisreportcontainsneedsassessmentsandstrategiesforcopingwithprojectedgrowth,andevaluationofpossiblestimulitogrowth,suchasexpandeddevelopmentofnaturalresourcesontheoutercontinenta1sheIf(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983).SewardisthesouthernterminusoftheAlaskaRailroadandisthusatransportationcenterforthestate.However,freightonlyistransportedbyrailbetweenPortageandSeward,exceptbyspecialcharterarrangement.PrimaryindustrialbasesforSewardarefishing,andprocessingoffishandtimber.Itisalsoacargoport,sinceResurrectionBayonwhichitislocatedisfreeoficeallyear.SewardisthesiteoftheUniversityofAlaskaInstituteforMarineSciences.TheEasternPeninsulaisapopulartouristattraction,andtourismprovidesabigpartoftheeconomicbaseofthewholearea(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.3;TheMilepost,1983).Employmentstatisticsareavailableonlyonthecensusdivisionlevel,whichcombinesSewardandtheEasternKenaiPeninsula.Additionally,formanyindustries,dataaresuppressedtoprotecttheprivacyofindividualfirmswhich,inasmallcommunitylikeSeward,oftendominatetheeconomicenvironment~Generalizationsmustbemadetakingthesequalificationsintoaccount.Federal,state,andlocalgovernmentemployabout20%oftheworkingpopulationintheSewardCensusDivision.Thetotallaborforcein1982was1,622,withanunemploymentrateof14.7%.AswiththerestofAlaska,unemploymentrateshaverangedwidelyinSewardoverthepastdecade:from9.2%in1975to16.5%in1972and1973.UnemploymentisusuallyhigherintheSewardCensusDivisionthanintherestoftheboroughorinthestateasawhole(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.53,55).Wagesfromgovernmentemploymentmadeupover40%ofthetotalwagepaymentsin1980.The1980percapitaincomewas$11,967,slightlyhigherthantherestoftheborough(OfficeManagementandBudget,1983:pp.127,130).However,thecostoflivingisalsoslightlyhigherinSewardcomparedtotherestoftheborough(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.60).Assessed1andvalueinSewardhasremainedabout$50mi11ionsince1980,whenitwasatapeakof$51.7million.Thetotalpropertytaxratedroppedfrom16millsto8.75millsbetween1979and1982.Thecity'spropertytaxis7millsofthetotal8.75(1982-downfrom20millsin1976);theremaining1.75millsisfortheborough.TheSewardServiceArea(fireprotectionandhealthservices)hasataxrateof6.25mills(1982).Sewardrecentlyinstituteda1%salestax(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.68-69:71-72).HouseholdsizeinSewardaveraged2.8personsin1977,smallerontheaveragethanfortherestoftheborough.In1978,therewereabout600householdsinSeward.In1982,justunder70%ofhousinginthecityofSewardwasinsinglefamilyunits,withalmostalltheremaining30%inapartmentunits.Lessthan1%wasinmobilehomes.UnlikeHomerandSeldovia,about75%ofallhousingauthorizedforconstructioninSewardbetween1978and1982wasinmultiple-familyunits,andonlyabout30%insingle-familyunits(seeTableN-12).Vacancyratesarenotavail-ableforSeward(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.30,34,and38).NearlyallSewardhouseholdsareoncitywaterandsewersystems.ElectricityissuppliedbyCityofSewardElectric;oilisusedasaheatingfuelinover90%oftheresidences.Sewardhasonehospitalandonementalhealthclinic.Thecityhasitsownfireandpolicedepartments,andareasarounditareservedbydepartmentsfundedthroughserviceareataxes(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.39,43,49,69).TheEasternPeninsulahasfourelementaryschoolsandonehighschool;oneoftheelementaryschoolsandthehighschoolareinSeward.TotalelementaryschoolenrollmentintheEasternPeninsulaareain1982was401students(311inSeward);totalforthehighschoolwas161.Thesefiguresareabout17%aboveenrollmentfiveyearsago.Intheinterveningyears(1979-1981),enrollmentdeclinedandremainedconstantatabout520students.TheAlaskaVocationalTechnicalCenterandtheUniversityofAlaskaInstituteforMarineSciencesarebothlocatedinSeward(KenaiPeninsulaBor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:pp.31,51-52).SewardistheterminusbothofHighway9andtheraillinefromAnchorage.Highway9branchesoffHighway1,whichistheroadaccesstothePeninsula.Inthesummerof1981,onHighway9justsouthoftheHighway1intersection,averagedailytrafficvolumewas1,186vehicles;inthewinterof1981,averagedailytrafficvolumewas774vehicles.About43%ofthevehicleswerepassengervehicles,about9%trucksorbuses,theremainderpickups,paneltrucks,andcampervehicles(KenaiPenin.Bor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.88).State-runferriesalsoconnectSewardwithHomer,Seldovia,Valdez,andKodiakIsland.SewardAirporthasscheduledservicetoAnchorageandservesprivateplanes(TheMilepost,1983). N-37N.l.3.3.2TokandDeltaJunctionAreaTheJohnsonhydropoweralternativesiteisjustnorthoftheAlaskaHighwayabout140miles[220kilometers(km)]southwestofFairbanks.ThenearestmajorcommunitiesareToktothesouthwestandDeltaJunctiontothenortheastofthesite.TokisasmallcommunityattheintersectionoftheTrans-AlaskaHighwayandtheTokcut-offoftheGlennHighway.ThetownservesasapointofentrytoAlaska.Itisabout70miles(110km)southeastoftheJohnsonsite.Tok's1980populationwas750,up250%since1970(TheMilepost,1983:p.104;U.S.BureauoftheCensus,1970).Thetownisprimarilyaservicecenterfortouristsandotherhighwaytravelers.Thus,employmentisseasonalformanyresidents.Manyresidentsarealsoinvolvedinraisingdogsforsleddingandbreeding(TheMilepost,1983:p.105).Thetownisunincorporated.Servicesareprovidedthroughstateplanningandfunding.TheelementaryandhighschoolinTokareadministeredbytheAlaskaGatewaySchoolDistrict.Thereareseveralmotelsandthreecommercialcampgroundsinthetown(TheMilepost,1983:p.101;AlaskaDept.ofCommunityandRegionalAffairs,1983).Tokhasapublichealthclinic,afiredepartment,aStateTrooperstation,andsmallairfieldthatservesprivateandcharteredplanes(TheMilepost,1983:p.101).In1982,amonthlyaverageof11,620vehiclepassengersenteredAlaskaattheTokstation,anaverageincreaseof6%.InJunealone,almost33,000passengersentered(KenaiPenin.Bor.Resour.Dev.Office,1983:p.89).Assuminganaverageofthreepassengerspervehicle,thisfiguremeansatpeaktimes,11,000vehiclesmaypassthroughTokandthissectionoftheAlaskaHighwayeachmonth.Twosmallnativecommunities,TanacrossandDotLake,arelocatedalongtheAlaskaHighwaybetweenTokandtheJohnsonsite.Tanacrosshadapopulationof117in1982.ThepopulationofDotLakewas67people(TheMilepost,1983:p.110).The1970populationswere84and42,respectively(U.S.BureauoftheCensus,1970).Tanacrosshasanairstripandisthesiteofafireguardstationforthearea.DotLakehasafewlodgingunitsandafewtourist-relatedservices,e.g.,gasstation,restaurant(TheMilepost,1983:p.110).Thecommunityisabout25miles(40km)southeastoftheJohnsonsite.Onelodgewitharestaurantandaloungeislocatedabout30miles(50km)northwestoftheJohnsonsiteontheAlaskaHighway.ThenextcommunityisDeltaJunction,about10miles(16km)farthernorthwestonthehighway.DeltaJunctionisanincorporatedcommunitylocatedatthejunctionoftheAlaskaandRichardsonhighways.In1982thepopulationofDeltaJunctionwas1,044(AlaskaDept.ofCommunityandRegionalAffairs,1983),aboutone-thirdhigherthanits1970populationof703(U.S.BureauoftheCensus,1970).DeltaJunctionhasfullcommunityservices,includingafirestationandahealthclinic,staffedbyaphysician'sassociate.SchoolsareadministeredbytheDelta/GreenlySchoolDistrict.Thetown'scommercialoperationsaretourist-orientedandarestretchedalongtheAlaska-RichardsonHighway.Deltaalsohasanairportforprivateplanes(TheMilepost,1983:pp.111-113).TheareaaroundDeltaJunctionisusedforagriculture,primarilyingrowingbarley.Thestate'sDeltaBarleyProjectIencourageddevelopmentoftheareaforbarleyproductionin1978withalotteryof65,000acres(26,000ha)ofland.By1981,15,000acres(6,100ha)wereclearedandinproduction,including13,000acres(5,300ha)barley(TheMilepost,1983:p.113).BetweenDeltaJunctionandFairbanksareanumberoflodges,motels,andothertouristfacilities.Onecommunity,NorthPole(1980populationof928),islocatedjustsouthofFairbanks.NorthPole'scommercialoperationsareprimarilytourist-oriented.ThetownisthehomeofmanypeoplewhocommutetoFairbanksforemploymentandmostservices(TheMilepost,1983:pp.115-116).N.2ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSN.2.1ProposedProjectN.2.1.1WatanaDevelopmentN.2.1.1.1IntroductionImpactsrelatedtotheproposedSusitnaprojectwouldbethesamekindsthathaveoccurredasaresultofmanyotherlarge-scaleenergyprojects.Commonlycalled"boomtown"phenomena,theyarearesultofsudden,rapidgrowthinpopulationinaruralarea.Populationgrowthiscausedbyaninfluxofprojectconstructionworkers(directworkers),workerstostaffthesupportservicescreatedbythenewpopulation(supportworkers),andthehouseholdmemberswhoaccompanydirectandsupportworkers.Afterafewyears,however,whenthepeakinconstructionworkforceispassedandtheworkforcesizebeginstodecline,manyofthesenewresidentsleavethearea,causinga"bust"period.Thedeclinecontinuesuntiltheprojectisinoperation.Theoperationsstaffisgenerallyfarsmallerthanthepeaksizeoftheconstructionworkforce. N-38Onemeasureofboom-bustimpactstotheprojectareacommunitiesistheratioofthesizeorpeakworkforcetothesizeoftheoperationworkforce(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982:p.111-4).ForWatanaDamandDevilCanyondamscombined,thisratiois21:1,indicatingapotentiallygreatdifferencebetweenpeakandlong-term,post-projectdemandsforhousingandothercommunityresources.Insomeofthefollowingsections,descriptionsofimpactsincludethosefrombothWatanaandDevilCanyon,ascumulativeimpactsofthetwoshouldnotbeseparatedImpactsspecifictoDevilCanyondevelopmentareinSectionN.2.1.2.N.2.1.1.2PopulationGENERALDESCRIPTIONOFPROJECTIONSPotentialsocioeconomicimpactsoftheproposedSusitnaproject(includingbothWatanaandDevilCanyondams)wouldoccurprimarilyasaresultofproject-relatedpopulationincreases.AsdescribedinSectionN.1.1.2,populationprojectionsfortheprojectareavarygreatly.Thosemadeduringtheearly1980sreflectedthemassivegrowthinpopulationassociatedwiththeTrans-AlaskaPipelineprojectandothernaturalresourcedevelopmentprojectsinthestate.Theyalsoreflectanassumptionofcontinuedresourcedevelopmentandincreasingstaterevenuesfromexistingandnewdeve1opment.Basedontheseestimates,growthingeneralisexpectedtocontinueatarateonlyslightlylessthanoverthepreviousdecade.Morerecentprojections,however,reflectotherconditions.ThedropinoilpriceshasreducedstaterevenuesandsloweddevelopmentofnewsuppliesofenergyresourcesinAlaska.Inmigration,amajorsourceoftheearlierpopulationgrowth,hasslowedduetofeweremploymentopportunitiesinthemoresluggisheconomy.Thus,projectionsmadein1983byISER,forexample,reflectfarlowergrowthrates.Mat-SuBoroughplanners,however,inaspecialsurveyoftheirpopulationin1982,foundearlierprojectionsmadebytheirconsultantsforthatyearlowfortheirborough.Theircompromisewastocalculatethepercentagelowertheactual1982populationwasfromthepreviousyear'spro-jectionsand addthatpercentage(approximately10%)toeachyearintheprojectionsto2010(Mat-SuBoroughPlanningDep.,undated).Mat-SuBoroughplannershavefoundISERprojectionsofthepastfewyearstobelow,andthushaveusedsamplesurveysandprojectionsmadebyotherconsultantsspecificallyfortheBoroughintheirplanning.Inthisanalysis,thelowerISERbaselineprojectionswillbeusedasabaseforthelow-boundaryofprojectimpacts(seebelow).Boroughprojectionswillbeusedasanindicationofpotentiallygreaterpopulationimpacts.Itisacomplextasktoallocatetheprojectworkforce,accompanyingpersons,workersforsupportjobscreatedbyincreaseddemandfromdirectworkers,andhouseholdmembersaccompanyingbothgroupstopopulationcentersintheprojectarea.Assumptionsmustbemadeabouthowmanycurrentresidentswillfilldirectandsupportjobs,howmanyinmigrantswillbetemporaryresidentsfortheirtermofemploymentontheproject,howmanypeoplewillaccompanyinmigrantdirectworkers,howmanysupportworkersareneededperinmigrantdirectworkerandhouseholdmember,andsoon.Theassumptionsmadearebasedonliteraturereviews,historicaldataontheprojectarea,andjudgmentsoflocalauthorities.Thenumbersprojectedarethenaddedtobaselinepopulationprojectionstogenerate"with-project"populationestimatesfortheregion.Otherfactorsbesidestheaccuracyofbaselinedataandofthemanyassumptionsabouttheinmigratingpopulationaffectthequalityoftheprojections.Arecentstudycomparedprojec-tionsofimpactswithwhatactuallyoccurredforanumberoflarge-scaleconstructionprojectsofenergy-producingfaci1ities.Resultsshowedthat"theactualtimingandmagnitudeofcon-structionemploymentdifferedsubstantiallyfromtheestimatesmadepriortocommencementofthe.project"(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982:p.S-l).Generallytheestimateswerelowbecauseofunexpecteddelaysinconstructionschedulescausedbysuchthingsasworkstoppagesordelaysinreceivingequipmentormaterials.Thepreprojectestimatesofpeakworkforcesizemadeinthe12casesstudiedwerelowbylessthan1%toasmuchasalmost195%;theestimatesofwhenthepeakwouldoccurwereearlyin7of the12casesby2to36months(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982:p.111-4).However,thesamestudyfoundthattotalpopulationgrowth(baselineplusproject-induced)hasgenerallybeenoverestimated.Theprojectionsmadehereshouldbeconsideredinlightofthesefindings.Thesamestudyalsofoundthatbecausespecificskillsinconstructionwereneededforshortperiodsoftimerelativetothetotallengthoftheconstructionperiod,turnoverofworkerswashigherthanexpected.Sowhilethenumberofworkerswashigherthanestimatedandtheconstruc-tionperiodlonger,moreworkersthanexpectedworkedforshorterperiodsontheproject,i.e.,turnoverwasmorerapidthantheworkforceestimateswouldindicate(DenverResearchInstituteeta1.,1982).Itwouldseemthenthatdemandsfortemporaryoronsitehousingratherthanpermanenthousingwouldbehigher-especiallygiventhe21:1construction-to-operationworkforceratio.REVISINGTHEAPPLICANT'SPROJECTIONSTheApplicant'smodelincorporatesalltheassumptionsanddatanecessarytomakepopulationprojectionsfortheproject.Numbersofdirectorprojectworkers,supportworkers,andhouseholo N-39membershavebeengeneratedandallocatedtomanyoftheregion'spopulationcenters.Con-structionandoperationworkforcerequirementsareshowninTable2-1.Basedonevaluationofthedocumentationofthiswork,theassumptionsanddataonproject-relatedpopulationwillbeusedbythestaffaspartofthisanalysis.However,theseproject-relatedpopulationfigureswillbeaddedtothe1983ISERbaselinepopulationprojections.ThesebaselineprojectionsareconsiderablylowerthentheApplicant'sbaseline,asdiscussedinSectionN.1.1.2,andshowninTableN-1.Thus,overallwith-projectestimatesofpopulationgrowthwouldbelowerthanthoseinExhibitE(Vol.7,Chap.5).Additionally,otherqualificationsmustbeplacedontheseprojections.Thesequalificationsarediscussedbelow,asarethemodificationsmadebythestafftotheApplicant'sestimates.TheApplicanthasusedliteraturereviewsofsimilarlarge-scaleprojectsituationsandevalua-tionsoftheavailabilityoflocal,regional,andstateresidentsfortheworkforcetopredictthenumberofprojectworkerswhowouldbetemporaryorpermanentinmigrantstotheprojectarea.Projectionsofimpactscouldvarywidely,dependingonthetransportationplansavailable(Metz,1983).Forexample,iftheApplicantweretoarrangeaircommutesfromAnchorageandFairbanksandaworkscheduleoftwoweeksonsitefollowedbyoneweekoff,manyworkersmightchoosetouseonsitefacilitiesduringtheonsiteperiodsandhavepermanentresidencesinAnchorageorFairbanks.Ifthesamework/leavescheduleexistedandcommutingservicewereofferedonlybyroadtotheDenaliorParksHighways,someworkersmightbemorelikelytomakeonsitehousingtheirpermanentresidence.OthersmaysetuppermanentresidencesinthesmallcommunitiesalongtheParksHighway.Thefirstscenariowouldmeangreaterimpactstothetwolargemetro-politanareasthantothelocalprojectarea;thesecondwouldmeangreaterimpactstothesmallcommunitiesnearthesiteandnegligibleimpactsonAnchorageandFairbanks.Theprojectionsmadeinthisdocumentarebasedonassumptionslikethoseofthesecondscenario,i.e.,trans-portationwouldbeofferedoffsitebycommutingservicesorprivatevehiclesonlytotheDenaliorParksHighways.TheseassumptionsaremoreconsistentwiththeApplicant'scurrentprojectproposal.However,becauseofthepossibilityofimpactstoAnchorageandFairbanks,thepotentialforthefirstscenariowillbediscussed.Asworkertransportationplansandwork-leaveschedulesdevelop,assumptionsmadebytheApplicantandinthisdocumentastonumbersandcharacteristicsoftheinmigratingpopulationmaychange.TheApplicanthasmadeseveralassumptionswhichleadtoconservativeprojectionsofproject-related(basic,support,andhouseholds)inmigration.Thesewillbediscussedinthefollowingparagraphs.IthasbeenassumedintheApplicant'sprojectionsthatnosingleworkerswouldchoosetorelocatetheirpermanentresidencestopopulationcentersnearthesite,i.e.,allinmigratingsingleworkerswouldliveattheconstructioncampsorintemporaryhousinginthesepopulationcenters.Sincemanyconstructionworkersonthisremoteandseasonalprojectmaybesingle,thisisafairlystrongassumptionwhichreducesprojectedpopulationimpactscon-siderably.However,ifwork/leaveschedules,transportationplansforworkers,andonsite1odgingandfoodareattractive,theassumptionmaybeagoodone.Unfortunately,transporta-tionplans,featuresoftheconstructioncamps,accessroutes,andworkscheduleshavenotyetbeendetermined.Withoutthisinformation,itisdifficulttoevaluatetheappealofonsitehousingandtheincentivesforworkerstomaintainpermanentresidencesoutsidethearea.TheApplicant'smodelalsoallocatesinmigratingworkerswhoareexpectedtoreside(temporarilyorpermanently)offsiteaccordingtocommutingtimefromthecommunitytothesite.Althoughtransportationtimeisacrucialfactor,twoqualificationsneedtobemadethatmaychangethisallocation.First,untiltransportationplansforworkersaredeveloped(e.g.,whetheroppor-tunitieswillbeprovidedtoflyweeklyfromthesitetoFairbanks,Anchorage,orotherareas)andaccessroutesaredetermined,itisnotclearwhichcommunitieswouldbetheclosestintraveltime.Thisassessmentwillbebasedontheplanasproposed,i.e.,thatmostworkerswouldliveonsite.Secondly,studiesofworkersonothertransmissionlineandpowerplantconstructionprojectshaveindicatedthattheavailabilityandsupplyofhousing,shoppingfacilities,andcommunityservicesmaybeasimportantindeterminingwhereworkers,especiallythosewithfamilies,wouldsettle,regardlessofdistancefromthesite(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982;Gale,1982).Additionally,acceptablecommutingdistancesinsparselypopulatedruralareasaregenerallygreaterthanindenselypopulatedareas(MurdockandLeistritz,1979).TheApplicantassumesthatonly7%oftheworkforcewouldcomefromMat-SuBorough.Yet,only10%ofprojectworkerswhoarehiredfromtherestoftheRailbelt,Fairbanks,orCook-Inletregions,areexpectedtomovenearertothesite,e.g.,toTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,orCantwell(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-59-E.5-60).ThisassumptioniscountertotheincreasingtrendinAlaskaandinthelower48statesofpopulationmigrationfrommetropolitantonon-metropolitanareas.EvidenceofthistrendintheprojectregionistherapidgrowthofthePalmer-Wasilla-HoustonareanorthofAnchorage,asdiscussedinSectionN.1.1.2.Basedonthisassumption,projectionsbytheApplicantarethatofapeak1990workforceofabout3,500workers(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,TableE-5-28),only345willinmigratetoMat-SuBorough,mostof N-40thesetoTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andnearbysmall,unincorporatedcommunities.VeryfewareprojectedtolocateintheAnchorageareaandfewerstillintheFairbanksarea.Overthefiveyearperiodof1988to1992,whenprojectemploymentforsixmonthsofeachyearwouldbe2,000ormore,theApplicantprojectsthatonlyacumulative334workerswouldbecomepermanentresidents.Becauseprojectemploymentnumbersserveasabasisforthemultipliersusedtopredictnumbersofin-migrantsupportworkersandaccompanyingpersons,theApplicantwillalsohavelowerprojectionsforoverallin-migration.Second,ithasalsobeenstatedbytheApplicantthatonly7%oftheworkforcewouldcomefromMat-SuBorough.Morethan55%wouldbefromAnchorageandanother24%fromFairbanks(FrankOrth&Assoc.,1983:pp.43-44).Withover93%oftheworkforceexpectedtocomefromoutsidetheboroughandmostofthatfrom200mi(320km)away,itseems1ikelythattheprojectionusedbytheApp1icantof10%inmigra-tiontocommunitiesnearerthesiteisalow-boundestimate.TheApplicantalsoassumesthatonsitehousingwouldbeusedtomaximumcapacity.Giventheresultsofthestudydiscussedearlierthatmanymoreworkersthaninitiallyprojectedworkforshorterperiodsonconstructionprojects,thismaybeagoodassumption.Acounterargument,however,isthatinthecaseoftheTrans-AlaskaPipelineproject,manyworkerscametoAlaskaorfromotherpartsofAlaskausingemploymentonthepipelineasanopportunitytoestablishresidenceinthearea.Additionallycharacteristicofpopulationinfluxesrelatedtolarge-scaleAlaskanconstructionprojectsisthefactthatalargenumberofunemployedworkerscometotheprojectarealookingforemployment(McAnerney,1982;Lewis,1983:p.2).Someofthesearehiredasprojectworkersorinsupportjobsstimulatedbytheproject;otherstakeupresiden(inthearea,althoughunemployed,inthehopesoffindingpositionslater.Althoughitisverydifficulttoprojectthenumberofpeoplewhowouldbeattractedby,butnotemployedby,theSusitnaproject,thefactthatthisphenomenonoccursmakesconservativeanyprojectionsbasedonlyonprojectemployment.TheApplicant'sprojectionsofinmigratingdirectprojectworkers,supportworkers,andhouseholdmembersandastaff-revisedversionareshowninTableN-13.Distributionofpopulationtocommunitiesismadeintwoways.OneisaccordingtotheApplicant'smodel,andtheotherisastaff-modifiedversionthatincludesHealy,Nenana,andPaxsonintheallocations.Thestaffmodifiedtheprojectiontoincludetheseadditionalcommunitiesfortworeasons.ThecommunitiesareaseasilyaccessiblefromtheprojectsiteasmanyofthecommunitiesintheMat-SuBorough.HealyandNenanaareontheParksHighway,themajorroutetoFairbanks;Paxsonisattheinter-sectionoftheDenaliandRichardsonhighways,whicharealsoaccessroutestoFairbanksandAnchorage.ThesecondreasonisthatHealyandNenanaarealsoestab1ishedcommunitiesofgreatersizeanddevelopmentthanMat-Sucommunitiesneartheprojectsite,andthereissomeevid~ncethatconstructionworkerswillsacrificesomecommutingconveniencetohaveaccesstoestalYlishedcommunitysettingsandservices(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982;Gale,1982).TheredistributionofsomeofthepopulationtoHealy,Nenana,andPaxsonwasdoneinasimplisticwayandisintendedtopresentmoreofaqualitativeideaofimpactstothesecommuni-tiesratherthanquantitativeresults.Toaccomplishthereviseddistribution,fourassumptionsweremadebythestaff.First,fewerpeoplewouldinmigratetoHealyandNenanathantonorthernMat-SuBoroughcommunities.ThisisbecauseHealyandNenanaarefartherfromtheprojectsite.Second,thepopulationtoberedis-tributedistakenfromHouston,Wasilla,andPalmerbecauseoftheirgreaterdistancefromtheprojectsite.Third,thepercentageofpopulationtakenfromdistributionstoHouston,Wasilla,andPalmershouldbelessthanhalfbecauseofthehistoricalattractionofthesepopulationcentersandtheirgreatersize.TheyalsoareclosertoAnchorage,whichisalargerserviceandtransportationcenterthanFairbanks.Anarbitrarychoiceofone-thirdofthepopulationallocatedtothethreeMat-SutownsisreallocatedtoHealy,Nenana,andPaxson.Fourth,becauseHealyandNenanaarelargerthanPaxsonandarelocatedonthemorewell-usedParksHighway,theyareeachallocated40%oftheredistributedpopulation,andPaxsonisallocated20%.UnadjustedandadjusteddistributionsandprojectionsareshowninTableN-13.TheprojectionsusedforCantwellarethoseoftheApplicant'shighcase,whichwasmadebasedontheassumptionthatAHTNA,Inc.woulddecidetoallowdevelopmentoftheirlandintheCantwellareaforresidences(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,pp.E-5-43-E-5-44).Additionally,atemporaryconstructioncampisproposedforCantwellwithcapacitytohousetheapproximately200workersconstructingtherailheadfacility.Theseworkersareincludedintheprojections.IfAHTNA,Inc.,didnotallowdevelopmentofitslandforhousing,theprojectionsforCantwellwouldbefarlower(seeExhibitI,Vol.7,Chap.5,TableE.5.24).Projectionsforothernearbycommuni-tieswouldalsobehigher,asworkerswhowanttohavetheirhouseholdsnearthesitechoosethenextclosestalternatives.MAT-SUBOROUGHPROJECTIONSMat-SuBoroughplannershavealsomadeprojectionsofpopulationthatincludeSusitnaprojecteffects..Inmakingtheseprojections,boroughplannersevaluatedanumberofwidelyrangingprojectionsmadebyvariousdemographersinpublicandprivateagencies.Historicalgrowth N-41TableN-13.CumulativeDistribution(applicant'sandrevised)ofProjectedProjectPopulationtoImpact-AreaCommunities,AlternateYearsPlus1990(PeakYear)and2002(EndofConstruction)t1Community/PlanningDistrict198519871989 1990 1991 199319951997 199920012002TalkeetnaApplicant25174267335 323250222240257 230 209Revised25174267335323250222 240 257230209TrapperCreekApplicant32241378475451288 227278314256212Revised32241378475 451288 227 278314256 212HoustonApplicant423354442373536 37 3533Revised31523 292825 2324 232322WasillaApplicant5314759 5748 4446484442Revised32131 3938322931 322928PalmerApplicant5263949 4839 3537 393633Revised3172633322623 2526 2422OtherApplicant40226341427415351327338352328 308Revised40226341427 415351 327338 352328308Mat-SuBoroughTotalApplicant1107211,1071,3891,3371,0138919751,047930837Revisedt41056949661,3381,2889728529361,006891 801CantwellApplicant430638843999984920785 785 796 767744Revised430638843999984920785785 796 767744HealyApplicantNANANA NA NANANANANA NA NARevised2111620 201616 16 161614NenanaApplicantNANANA NANANANA NANA NA NARevised2111620201616 1616 16 14PaxsonApplicantNA NANANA NA NA NANA NANANARevised15 9119 9 7 7 978AnchorageCensusDivisionApplicant435325537663556-219-523-219-36-333 -532Revised435325537663556-219 -523 -219-36-333-532FairbanksCensusDivisionApplicant82-89-136 -173-171-280 -323 -295 -271-309-341Revised82-89-136-173 -171-280 -323 -295 -271 -309 -341t1"App1icant"valuesarefromExhibitE,VoL7,Chap.5,TableE.5.35."Revised"valueshavebeenadjustedbytheFERCStafftoincludeHealy,Nenana,andPaxsoninthedistribution.Toaccomplishthis,one-thirdofthepopulationallocatedtoeachofHouston,Wasilla,andPalmerweresubtracted,andthenreallocated:40%eachtoHealyandNenana,20%toPaxson.NA=Notavailable. I IN-42t'thtes'25%inthe1960sand200%inpatternsoverthepasttwodeca~esshoweddramalclgrow'o~aof'populationboomsfollowedbyth1970sHoweverAlaska'shlstoryshowsseveraperl.hlde.,1h trecentgrowthrateswouldcontlnue;othersthatteywoubusts.Some~emographers.f~~~~ncludeddifferentassumptionsregardingconstructionprojectstaperoff.Dl~ferentbProJe~nl~~rYinglaborforceexpectations.Theboroughrejectedmanyofandthusqro~~waC'~~~dingISER's)astoolowbecausetheboroughplannersfeltthatthethe~erroJec~~;sno~nconfirmedbyrecentgrowthpatterns.Thus,agreatdealofuncertaintypr?J~c~~~~tWMat-SuBoroughgrowthpatterns(DOWLEngineers,1983).Intheirofficialprojec-~~~~ssboroughplannersassumedamorestabilizedbutstillgrowingpopUlation,particularlyinthea~eanorthofAnchorage,andinmigrationofpeopleforconstructionoftheproposedSusitnaproject.COMPARISONOFAPPLICANTANDBOROUGHPROJECTIONSProjectionsanddistributionofproject-inducedpopulationchanges,excludingbaselinepopula-tion,madebytheApplicantandMat-SuBoroughplannersareshowninTableN-14.Populationwasdistributedbytheboroughtoboroughp1anningdistricts,notparticularcommunities,asdis-cussedinSectionN.1.1.2.Planningdistrictsmayincludeoneormorecommunitiesandalargeamountofrelativelyunpopulatedland.TheApplicantallocatedproject-relatedpopulationsspecificallytocommunities.Thus,thegeographicalareasusedfordistributioncomparisonarenotidentical.However,anexaminationofamapofboroughplanningdistrictsshowsthatwiththeexceptionofthe"Other"and"Willow"categories,thedistrictsincludethecommunitiesintheApplicant'sprojections.Comparisonofthetwoprojectionsshouldthusbebasedonrelativeestimatesanddistributionratherthanabsolutenumbers.The"Other"categoryforMat-SuBorouglcoverstheinterioroftheboroughinwhichtheSusitnaproject,butnopopulationcenters,arelocated.Thus,itincludesthepopulationinonsitehousing,apopulation(3,300ormoreatpeak)considerablyhigherthanthecurrentpopulation«200)inthisgeographicalarea.The"Other"categoryfortheApplicantincludesanypartoftheboroughnotspecificallylistedseparately,includinganypopulationcenters.However,itexcludesthepopulationhousedonsite.(Seefootnote3inTableN-14.)Itisclearthatboththedistributionschemesandthesizeoftheproject-relatedinmigrationdifferdependingonthesourceoftheprojections,particularlybetween1988and1992.Theborough'sprojectionsaremuchhigherandconcentratedmoreincommunitiesandlandareasverynearthesite--TalkeetnaandTrapperCreek--ratherthandistributedovertheRailbelt.Theyindicateconsiderablygreaterpopulationimpactstothesecommunities.TheApplicant'sprojec-tionsarelowerforallcommunitiesandthetotalborough,andaredistributedmorewidely.Evenif~-peakonsitepopulationof3,300(ExhibitE,Volume1,p.A-1-25)isaddedtotheApp1icant's"Other"categoryandtoboroughtotalsduringpeakconstructionyears,thenumbersaresubstantiallylower.Besidesbeinghigher,Mat-SuBoroughprojectionsshowproject-inducedpopulationgrowthconcentratedincommunitiesclosesttotheprojectsite.Theearlierdiscussioontheimportanceofassumptionsonworkertransportationandwork-leaveschedulesshouldbekeptinmindinevaluatingtheseimpactprojections.Numerousassumptions,uncertainties,andcomplexitiesareinherentinprojectingsocioeconomicimpactsofanylarge-scaleenergyproject.Recentresearchcomparingprojectionswithwhatactuallyoccurredduringconstructionandoperationperiodsrevealedproblemsof,forexample,underestimationofprojectschedulesandworkforcesizeandturnover,andoverestimationofincomingsupportpopulation(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982).Inlightofthesepoints,acompromisepositionistakenonthepopulationprojectionsusedintheremainderofthissectiononsocioeconomicimpacts.Specifically,twosetsofprojectionsareusedtoprovidearangeforMat-SuBorough.TheyareshowninTableN-15.Thelowerset[Applicant(Revised)]isthatmadefromcombiningISERbaselineprojectionswiththeApplicant'sproject-induced(directandsupportworkersandtheiraccompanyinghouseholdmembers)populationprojectionsdistributedaccordingtotherevisedplan(i.e.,includingHealy,Nenana,andPaxson).Thissetalsoinclude~projectionsforAnchorage,Fairbanks,Cantwell,Healy,Nenana,andPaxson.Thehighersetofprojections(borough)isthatmadebytheMat-SuBoroughplanners.Theserepresenthigherboroughimpacts,impactareasclosertotheproject,andarethebasisforanyboroughprepara-tionsinprocessoranticipated.ForcommunitiesnotinMat-SuBorough,onlytheonesetofprojectionsisused.Bothsets,however,whencomparedwithISERbaselinefiguresinTableN-1,indicatesubstantialpopulationgrowthinthesmallcommunitiesneartheprojectsite.ThevaluesinTableN-15showthatverylargediscrepanciesexistbetweenboroughpopulationprojectionsandtheApplicant'srevisedprojections.Becauseestimatesofotherimpactsarecalculatedonthebasisofpopulationprojections(e.g.,housing,communityservices),theytoowillhavethesamewiderange.Thus,preciseorevennarrowly-boundedestimatescannotbemadewithconfidence.Despitethefactthatthesetwowidelydifferentsetsofpopulationprojectionsdonothelptomakepreciseimpactprojections,theyareusedforseveralimportantreasons.First,asdis-cussedearlier,projectionsofbaselinepopulationgrowthmadeforMat-SuBoroughhavevariedwidelyoverthelastfewyears.TheISERbaselineusedbytheApplicantwasforhigherthanthe1!!IiIIII!I!~~~;:::::;;;::::;=====~----~--------------~--.- Table N-14.Cumulative Distribution of Annual Project-Induced Population to Mat-Su Borough Communities as Projected by Applicant (Unrevised)and Mat-Su Borough Planning Department Community/ Planning 1996 2000 2001 2002Districtt119851986198719881989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 Talkeetna Applicant 25 33 174 237 267 335 323 294 250 233 222 229 240 253 257 251 230 209 Borough NA NA NA 882t2 854 826 796 551 302 265 295 385 405 244 90 60 65 NA Trapper Creek Applicant 32 43 241 337 378 475 451 387 288 250 227 247 278 306 314 302 256 212 Borough NA NA NA 588t 2 570 550 530 368 202 177 196 256 270 162 60 40 42 NA Houston Applicant 4 5 23 31 35 44 42 40 37 36 35 35 36 37 37 36 35 33 Borough NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Wasilla Applicant 5 7 31 42 47 59 57 54 48 46 44 45 46 48 48 47 44 42 Borough NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Palmer Applicant 5 6 26 35 39 49 48 44 39 37 35 36 37 39 39 39 36 33 Borough NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA z, ~Other w Applicantt 3 40 52 226 303 341 427 415 390 351 336 327 331 338 349 352 346 328 308 Borough 393 1,542 4,296 5,013 5,059 5,107 5,157 3,519 2,600 2,649 2,652 2,920 2,884 1,840 1,107 1,025 1,066 NA Mat-Su Borough Total Applicantt3 110 146 721 985 1,107 1,389 1,337 1,210 1,013 937 891 924 975 1,032 1,047 1,021 930 837 Borought 4 393 1,542 4,296 6,483 6,483 6,483 6,483 4,438 3,104 3,091 3,143 3,561 3,559 2,246 1,257 1,125 1,173 NA +1 The applicant allocated projected population specifically to the communities listed.The borough planning department allocated projected population toI planning districts that include the community and some surrounding land.The units are similar,although not identical,geographical areas. t 2 It is not clear from the source if all these persons would move in only during 1988 or over several of the previous years. t 3 Excludes workers,household members,and staff housed in onsite housing.If these workers were added,peak years of 1990 and 1999 would increase in the "Other"category to 3,727 and 2,552,respectively,and to 4,689 and 2,847 in the Total Borough,respectively. t 4 It is not explicitly stated that projections for this planning district include persons housed in onsite facilities,but the large numbers during peak Watana employment years imply that these persons are included. NA =Not available.Borough projections not made for these areas/years. Sources:Applicant's projections are from Application Exhibit E,Vol.7,Chap.5,Table E.5.35;Mat-Su Borough projections are from:DOWL Engineers (1983), pp.IV-21 -IV-22. N-44TableN-15.CumulativeProjectionsofTotalPopulationincludingSusitnaProjectasMadebyApplicant(Revised)t1andMat-SuBorought2forAlternateYearsand1990(peakyear)and2002(endofconstruction)16,555 18,600(15,538)tS(16,629)5424,476Community/PlanningDistrictTalkeetnaApp1.Rev.BoroughTrapperCreekApp1.Rev.BoroughWillowApp1.Rev.t3BoroughHoustonApp1.Rev.Borought4WasillaApp1.Rev.BoroughPalmerApp1.Rev.BoroughOtherApp1.Rev.BoroughMat-SuBoroughTotalApp1.Rev.BoroughCantwellApp1.Rev.BoroughHealyAppl.Rev.BoroughNenanaApp1.Rev.BoroughPaxsonApp1.Rev.BoroughAnchorageCensusDivisionApp1.Rev.BoroughFairbanksCensusDivisionApp1.Rev.Borough19856481,209247172NA1,0735833,8742,08513,7092,4726,72222,588(21,571)32,927527NA427NA531NANANA198,264NA63,643NA19878331,463468208NA1,2986284,6872,22516,9422,6307,77925,384(23,413)44,103739NA454NA572NANANA208,271NA66,659NA19899552,577615815NA1,5286645,5182,33420,3632,7568,74220,465(17,483)5,27127,690(24,708)53,558948NA477NA611NANANA215,139NA68,836NA19901,0352,687716815NA1,6506815,9592,38122,2172,8099,21621,824(17,857)5,33629,447(25,480)57,2541,106NA490NA633NANANA218,786NA69,887NA19911,0462,806700816NA1,7827016,4362,45624,2372,8989,71021,883(18,411)5,40429,685(26,213)61,2051,093NA499NA651NANANA224,114NA71,510NA19939752,582538526NA2,0217007,3002,45728,0412,90110,46120,126(18,402)2,88027,698(25,974)64,6171,033NA515NA685NANANA230,079NA72,841NA19959482,833477556NA2,2496998,1252,45731,8242,90111,02919,454(18,399)2,96426,937(25,882)71,511902NA535NA726NANANA233,860NA73,720NA19979673,151528659NA2,4337008,7882,46235,0852,90711,26520,195(18,430)3,22127,759(25,994)77,494906NA556NA769NANANA238,793NA74,559NA19991,0923,060567481NA2,6317099,5062,49138,6672,94111,46720,838(18,655)1,47128,540(26,357)80,782921NA578NA815NANANA243,142NA75,734NA20019773,149514478NA2,7367199,8862,52940,9602,98811,55120,122(18,937)1,40427,850(26,665)84,175898NA600NA864NANANA249,203NA77,281NA20029133,278472498NA2,84572410,2812,55142,6003,01311,62619,475(19,089)1,46027,199(26,813)87,205878NA610NA887NANANA252,380NA78,165NAt1ProjectionsweremadeusingISERbaselineprojectionsasshowninTableN-6andRevisedapplicant'sproject-relatedpopulationprojectionfromTableN-11.t2DOWLEngineers(1983),pp.IV-18-IV-19,exceptforMat-SuBoroughtotals.Totalsareupdated,higherprojectionsmadeinlightofmorerecentcensuses.However,thesenewfigureswerenotdistributedtoPlanningDistricts.Thus,totalpopulationinanyyearexceedsthesumofthePlanningDistrictsabove.t3ApplicantdidnotmakeprojectionsspecificallyforWillow,butinsteadincludedtheWillowareainthe"Other"category.t4Borough'5projectionforHoustonPlanningDistrictincludesBigLake.tSNumberoutsideparenthesesincludesresidentsofonsitevillagesandconstructioncamps;numberinsideparenthesesexcludesthoseresidents.NA=NotAvailable. N-45morerecent(1983)ISERbaselineusedintherevisedApplicant'sprojections.Sincethe1983ISERprojectionsweremade,Mat-SuBoroughofficialshavefoundthatgrowthsince1982hasexceededBoroughprojections.Becauseofthewidevariance,itisbesttousearangeofpro-jectedpopulationchanges.TheApplicant'srevisedprojectionswillserveasthelowerbound,andthemuchhigherboroughprojectionsasthehigherbound.Anotherreasonforusingboththesewidely.discrepantprojectionsistotakeintoaccountbothoftheprimaryactionsininstitutionalnegotiationsandplanningthatwouldtakeplaceshouldtheproposedSusitnaprojectbebuilt.Boroughofficialsaremakingplansforconstructionandexpansionofcommunityfacilitiesandservicesbasedontheirofficialprojections.TheApplicant,inasimilarmanner,isdevelopingmitigationplansbasedonitsprojectionsofimpacts.Thus,forpo1itica1andfisca1reasons,impactscalculatedbasedontheseprojectionsneedtobeidentifiedandevaluated.Finally,bothboroughplannersandtheApplicantareupdatingandrevisingtheirpopulationprojections.Itislikelythattherangeofprojectionsshownherewillincluderevisedprojec-tionsmadebybothgroups.Comparingthetwosetsofprojectionsraisesanotherimportantpoint.Thestabilityofthepopulationandthepercentageofthepeakwhichremainsintheareadeterminestheseverityof"boom-bust"impacts.TheboroughprojectsfarmorevolatilityinthepopulationthandoestheApplicant.Forexample,thenumberofproject-relatedresidentsinTalkeetnain2001aspro-jectedbytheboroughisonly7%ofthenumberatthepeakin1988.AccordingtotheApplicant'sprojections,thecomparablestatisticis69%in2001,andafarlargernumberremainpermanently.Thedifferenceinsituationsprojectedinotherboroughcommunitiesissimilar.Thepercentageofacommunity/planningdistrict'spopulationestimatedtobeproject-relatedisshowninTableN-16.Thevaluesinthistableemphasizethedifferencesdiscussedhere,i.e.,thedegreeoflocalizedimpact,andofboom-bustphenomena."Boom-bust"phenomenaaremoredifficulttoplanforthangradualgrowth.Manyassumptionsmustbemadeabouthowmuchoftheboompopulationinmigratingwillremainandhowfarexistingcommunityservicesandfacilitiescanbeexpandedorstretchedtohandlethepeak,yetnotbeleftwithunusedcapacityduringthebustperiodwhichfollows.Suchphenomenahavebeenwell-documented(forexample,CorteseandJones,1977;PayneandWelch,1982).Thus,boroughplannershavegreaterexpectationsthattheboroughwillexperiencetheseproblemsthantheApplicant'sprojectionsofamoregradualandlessvolatilegrowthpattern.Suchproblemsarediscussedingreaterdetailinthesectionsthatfollow.N.2.1.1.3InstitutionalIssuesNoneofthesmallcommunitiesnearthesite(Talkeetna,TrapperCreek,Cantwell,Paxson)isincorporated.Eitheranincorporatedborough(Mat-Su)orthestateprovidesplanningandcommunityservices.Becauseofgreatlyincreasedpopulation,desireforgreaterlocalcontrol,andpotentialneedforlargertaxrevenues,TalkeetnaandCantwellmayfinditpracticaltoincorporate.AvotewastakenafewyearsagobytheresidentsofTalkeetnaonincorporation,butitwasdefeated(BraundandLonner,1982).Othercommunities(e.g.,NenanaandHouston)haveincorporatedatpopulationlevelsofaslowas500persons,alevelthatboththesecommuni-tieswouldrapidlyexceedsoonafterprojectconstructionbegan.Facedwithincreasingdemandstoprovideplanningandservices,Mat-SuBoroughwouldhavetoexpanditsadministrativeoperationsbeforepropertytaxrevenuewasavailabletopayforit.BasedonaratioofaboutsixboroughstaffemployeesinthePalmerofficeper1,000boroughresidents,theofficewouldhavetonearlydoubleinsizebytheendoftheproject.Newbuildingswouldbeneededtoprovideofficesfortheincreasedstaff.Additionally,becausemuchofthegrowthwouldoccurinthenorthernportionoftheboroughnearly200mi(320km)fromPalmer,BoroughplannersareconsideringdecentralizingBoroughfacilitiesandestablishinglocaloffices(DOWLEngineers,1983:pp.IV-27-IV-28).TheMat-SuBoroughSchoolDistrictcurrentlyfavorsaplanbytheApplicanttoincorporatetheproposedonsiteschoolintothedistrictwhenitisbuilt.Thus,additionaladministrativedutieswouldbetakenonbytheDistrictasaresultoftheproject(ExhibitE,September1983,Suppl.Responses,pp.5-4-1-5-4-2).GoalsofNativecorporationsinCantwellandelsewhereareingeneralorientedtodevelopingNativecommercialandemploymentopportunities.ThecorporationsfavortheprojectbecauseincreasedpopulationandincreasedaccesstoNativelandswouldmakedevelopmenteasierandenhancetourism(FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,1983;AHTNA,undated).However,theWatanaprojectconstructionperiodwouldoverlapwiththeadjustmentoftheNativecorporationstotheopeningofsaleoftheirstockstonon-Nativesin1991,asstatedinANCSA.Thissitua-tioncouldspreadtheirinstitutionalcapacitiesthinlyandthushampertheirabilitytodevelopproject-relatedeconomicopportunities. N-46TableN-16.PercentageoverBaselineISERProjectionsofPopulationGrowthProjectedwithSusitnaProjectt1Community/PlanningDistrict19851990199519992001/2002TalkeetnaAppl.Rev.448313528Borough0441132TrapperCreekAppl.Rev.151979112482Borough020854149HoustonAppl.Rev.<14 34 3Borough0 0 000WasillaAppl.Rev.<12111Borough0 0 000PalmerAppl.Rev.<11 111Borough00 0 0 0Othert27258144Appl.Rev.«1)(2)(2) (2)(2)Borough2632,230850304271Mat-SuBoroughTotalt25228135Appl.Rev.«1)(6)(3) (4) (3)Borough111421CantwellAppl.Rev.443934671 637555HealyAppl.Rev.<14332NenanaAppl.Rev.<13 2 2 2PaxsonAppl.Rev.NANANANANAAnchorageCensusDivisionAppl.Rev.<1<1<1<1<1FairbanksCensusDivisionAppl.Rev.<1<1<1<1<1t1Thebasesforselectionoftheyearsincludedinthetableare:1985isthebeginningofWatanaconstruction;1990isthepeakemploymentyearforWatanaconstruction;1995istheyearWatanaisoperationalandthelowestemploymentyear;1999isthepeakemploymentyearforDevilCanyon;2001/2002isthelastyearofDevilCanyonconstructionortheyearinwhichprojectionsweremade(seeExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,TableE.5.28).Noprojectionsweremadebytheapplicantafter2002;noneweremadebytheboroughafter2001.t2Numberoutsideparenthesesincludesresidentsofonsitevillagesandconstructioncamps;numberinsideparenthesesexcludesthoseresidents.NA=NotAvailable.Sources:CalculatedfromTablesN-l,N-13,andN-14. N-47IncreasedgrowthanddevelopmentcouldinterferewithsubsistenceactivitiesparticularlyinNativeAlaskancommunities.Subsistenceactivitiesareprotectedbylawfor"ruralAlaskaresidents"(AlaskaBoardofGame,undated:p.70),asdescribedinSectionN.1.1.3.Projectactivity,populationgrowthandimprovedaccesstohunting,fishing,andtrappingareascouldincreasecompetitionforsubsistenceharvestsanddrivefishandanimalstonewareas.Althoughtheactivitiesareprotectedbylaw,theavailabilityofresourcesintraditionallyusedareasisnot.Subsistenceactivitiesareusually·carriedonbyNatives.Becauseoflackoftrainingandbecausetheyarenotmembersofconstructionworkersunions,Nativesarenotexpectedtobehiredfortheprojectingreatnumbers.Thus,theywillremaindependentonsubsistenceactivi-tiestosupplementtheirfoodandotherresourcesupplies.Inadditiontofillingresourceneeds,subsistenceactivitiesareapartofaculturalheritageforNativeAlaskansandforotherswhochoseto1iveatleastpartially"efftheland"inremoteareasofAlaska.Withincreasedpopulationandaccesstotheareaoftheproposedproject,thoseresidentswhopreservethatculturemaybecomemoreinvolvedinthecasheconomygrowthwouldbring(JustusandSimonetta,1983).N.2.1.1.4QualityofLifeAttitudesofcitizensandorganizationsintheprojectareatowardtheSusitnaprojectarevaried.InSectionN.1.1.3,thepopulationoftheTalkeetnaandTrapperCreekareaswascate-gorizedintotwogroups:long-termresidentswhohadlivedintheareapriortotheopeningoftheParksHighwayin1965,andgenerallyyounger,morerecentresidentswhohadsettledintheareaafter1965.Thefirstgroup,thepre-roadresidentswhohavewitnessedmanychangesintheareaalready,islessresistanttotheSusitnaprojectthanisthesecondgroupofpost-road,morerecentresidents.Thesecondgroupfeelsthattheprojectwouldbringincreasedpopulation,industrialization,andcommercialism,allundesirablechangesfromtheirpointofview.Manymembersofbothgroupsforthemostpartshareanappreciationofthebeautyandundevelopednatureofthearea.Theyvaluetheisolatedandsmall-townnatureoftheircommunities(AcresAmerican,undated).Residentsinbothgroups,butprimarilyinthepost-roadgroup,areconcernedabouttheeffectincreasedaccesswouldhaveontheirqualityoflife.Theyhaveexpressedfearsthatgrowthrelatedtotheprojectwouldinterferewiththeirruralwayoflife.Thosewholivefull-orpart-yearinresidence.saccessibleonlybyfootfromtherail1ineareparticularlyconcernedthattheywouldnolongerbeabletocarryontheirwayofliferemovedfromandpartiallyindependentofotherpeople(FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,1983).SomehaveformedlocalcitizensIorganizationstoopposetheprojectbecauseofthechangestheyfeelitwouldcauseinthelifestyleofresidents(BraundandLonner,1982).Thecitizens'fearsaresupportedbyexperienceinotherrapidgrowthareas.Greaterformaliza-tionofactivitiesandlargernumbersofresidentshavechangedthenatureofsmall-townculturesreliantonpersonaltrust,communitysocialcontrolmechanisms,andface-to-facecontact.Crime,alcoholism,andothersocialproblemsincrease.Shortagesofhousingandservicesalsocauselocalinflation.Largenumbersofnewcomersbringnewexpectationsforwhatisagoodqualityoflife.Astheirnumbersincreaseinproportiontothenumberofpre-projectresidents,theyareabletochangethenatureofcommunitydecisionsandoperations.Forexample,thosepre-projectresidentswhoqualifymaypursuejobsonthehigh~payingconstructionworkforce.Positionstheyvacateinthecommunitywouldbetakenoverbywomendrawnintotheworkforceorbymenorwomennewcomers.Withsuchchanges,formalchildcarefacilitieswouldreplacebaby-sittingorfamilychildcare.Examplesofsuchchangesinboomtownsituationshavebeendocumentedinmanycases(GilmoreandDuff,1975;CorteseandJones,1977;Freudenburg,1976;1979a,b;1980;1981;Finsterbusch,1980;GilmoreandStenehjem,1980;ColoradoDiv.of~riminalJustice,1981;PayneandWelch,1982).[However,controversyexistsastothevalidityofsomeofthisresearch(Wilkinsonetal.,1982)].Thesechangesinqualityoflifewouldalsooccurintheprojectarea.Thoselong-termresidentswhohavealreadyseenmanychangesintheareaarenotsoopposedtotheproject.Althoughtheyvaluetheisolatedandscenicsettingandtherural,independentlifestyle,theyhaveremainedthroughothergrowthperiodsandadapted.TheyfeeltheSusitnaprojectmaybringaneededeconomicboosttothearea.TheconclusionoftheBraundandLonnerstudyoftheresidentsintheTalkeetna-TrapperCreekareaisthatonefactionisstronglyopposed,whileanotherisneitheropposednorstronglysupportive(BraundandLonner,1982).ResidentslivingnorthofTalkeetnaandTrapperCreekarealsodividedintheiropinionsabouttheproject.Cantwellarearesidentsingeneralfavoritbecauseoftheeconomicandemploymentopportunitiestheybelievewillaccompanyit.Theirareaoffersfewjobsforcurrentresidentsandunemployment,especiallyinthewintermonths,ishigh.ResidentsoftheareaalongtheParksHighwayaroundtheentrancetoDenaliNationalParkholdadifferentviewontheproject.Theyaredependentfortheirlivelihoodonparkvisitorsandothertourists.Theirconcernisthatprojectstructuresandaccessroadsandtheaccompanyingpopulationgrowthwilldetractfromthevisualqualityoftheareaandcauseoveruseofthewilderness.Becauselittlelandisavailable,theyalsofearthatincreasedpropertyvalueswillcausecommercialdevelopmentofa N-48stripalongtheHighway,increasingtheircompetitionandfurtherdetractingfromthewildernessnatureofthearea(BraundandLonner,1982).N.2.1.1.5EconomyandEmploymentBoom-bustphenomenawouldalsoaffecttheeconomyoftheprojectarea.Duringconstructionandbeforethe1990peakisreached,localcommercialoperationswouldbenefitfromincreasedsalestothelargerpopulationandfromsubcontractingfortheproject.Someoperationsmightexpandtoservetheincreaseddemand.NewbusinessesmightcomeinasthepopulationgrowstoaleveltosupportservicespreviouslyofferedonlyinAnchorageorFairbanks.Localgovernmentswouldexperienceariseinrevenuefromsalestaxes..However,shortagesofhousing,services,andsupplieswouldraisepricesandrents,causinglocalinflation.OneeffectoftheSusitnaprojectasawholewouldbetoincreaseaccessibilitytoremotewildernessareasfortouristsandforrecreationalandcommercialhunters,trappers,andfishermen.Thiscouldhaveapositiveeconomicimpactinthatcommunitieswouldprofitfromvisitors'expenditures.Projectexpendi-turesandsubcontractors[estimatedat$4.5billion(ExhibitE,Suppl.Information,September1983,p.5-17-1)Jwouldbenefitsomelocalbusinesses,althoughmostworkwouldprobablybecontractedinAnchorageorFairbanks.Workersonsitewouldalsobuygoodsandservicesinoffsitecommunities.Aswithmanyofthenegativeimpacts,thesepositiveeffectsaredifficulttoquantify.Manyissuesthathaveyettoberesolved-e.g.,wor·k/leaveschedulesandworkertransportationplans-wouldaffecttheleveloftheseimpacts.However,itcanbesaidthatwithoutatrans-portationplantothelargermetropolitanareas,communitiesnearestthesite(northernMat-Su,Cantwell)wouldexperiencethegreatestcommercialdevelopmentandincreasedsales.IfthetransportationplanmadeitpossibleforworkerstocommutefromAnchorageorFairbanks,thenthesecitieswouldreceivetheseimpacts.Relativetotheirpresentcommercialdevelopment,theimpactswouldbesmall.Aftertheconstructionpeakin1990,demandforgoodsandserviceswoulddropasconstructioneffortswerecompletedandworkersleftthearea.Businessesmightbeleftwithlargeinven-toriesandtoomanyworkers.Somemighthavetoclose,unabletocontinueonthereduceddemandoruntilDevilCanyonconstructionbroughtinmoreinmigrants.Additionally,rapidgrowthboomperiods,suchaswouldoccurincommunitiesnearthesite,areoftenaccompaniedbyinflationanddifficultyingettingfinancingandsupplies(Scrimgeour,undated;GilmoreandStenejhem,1980),creatingdifficultiesforbuyersandsellersalike.Residentswithlowerorfixedincomeswouldhavetheirbuyingcapabilitiesreduced(Clemente,1973,1975;CorteseandJones,1977).Becauseofcompetitionforjobsonactualconstructionoftheprojectandthespecialskillsneededformanyofthem,theApplicantdoesnotexpectmanyNativestobehiredinthiscapacity(ExhibitE,June1983,Suppl.Responses,p.5-2-2).However,constructionoftheproposedprojectcouldprovideanopportunityforAHTNA,Inc.,subsidiariestoexpandtheirexperienceandbusiness,intheformofcatering,housekeeping,andmaintenancefortherailheadandonsiteconstructioncampsandfortheonsitevillage.TheincreasedpopulationandimprovedaccessmightalsoincreasetourismtotheareaallowingAHTNA,Inc.,topursueitsgoalofdevelopingmoreNative-ownedandoperatedtourist-relatedbusinesses,e.g.,cateringorbuildingandoperat-ingtouristlodgingfacilities.IncreasedaccessandpopulationwouldalsocreateademandfordevelopmentofNativelandsheldbyseveralvillagecorporations,(Ahtna,Chickaloon,KnikandTyonek)forresidences,recreation,andmineralextraction(ExhibitE,June,1983,Suppl.Responses,p.5-2-3).SomeguidingbusinessesmightbedisplacedbytheWatanadamconstructionandoperation.Guidesareregisteredbythestatetooperateinspecificgeographicareas,i.e.,particularGameManagementUnits(GMU).Althoughguidesmayregisterinuptothreeunits,sevenregisteredforGMU13(whichincludesthedamsite)operateonlyinthatunit.Theseguideswouldlosetheirsourceoflivelihoodorhavetoreestablishthemselvesinanotherarea.IfreestablishmentinvolvescreationofnewcampsitesorlodgingfacilitieseitherinGMU13orlocatednearbyforconvenientaccesses,financiallossescouldbesubstantialfortheseguides(FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,1983;Rivers,1983).AsdescribedinSectionN.1.1.5.1,theeconomyofruralcommunitiesandtheemploymentandincomeofitscitizensishighlydependentonstatesources.Thestate'sabilitytocontinueitsprogramsrestsprimarilyonincomefromtaxesondevelopmentofoilandnaturalgasresourcesonitsland.ThefutureofthissourceDfincomeisinturndependentonthepriceofoil(AlaskaDep.ofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment,1983).BothbecauseofthedecliningpricesofoilandnaturalgasandbecausefuturedevelopmentmaybemorelikelytooccuronFederallandoroutsidethestate's3-mi(4.8-km)offshorelimit,thisfinancialresourcemaydecreaseinthefuture.Anydecreaseinthestatebudgetincreasescompetitionamongdemandsforstatefunds.Thus,financingfortheproposedSusitnaprojectcoulddiminishtheproportionofitsfundsthestatecouldprovideforlocalgovernments,privateindustrialdeveloping,housingmortgages,andincomeforitscitizens. N-49Arecentreportissuedbythestate'sOfficeofManagementandBudgetpresentedananalysisofstaterevenuesprojectingfuturedecreases.SuggestionstocurbstatespendinginlightofthedecreasesincludedstoppingdividenddistributionsfromtheAlaskaPermanentFundandreinstitut-ingastateincometax(Cony,1983).A Federalstudyofthestate'sdebtcapacityanddebtmanagementfoundthatinlightofprobabledecreasesinrevenue,thestateshouldconsidersettingupcontrolstolimitthebondingcapacityofboroughgovernmentsand"[a]voidanyattempttoerodetheAlaskaPermanentFundorweakenitsposition"(Seplocha,1983).FinancingalargeproportionoftheSusitnaprojectwould addtotheproblemsofdecreasingrevenues,puttingthestateinthepositionoffollowingsomeoralloftheseexpenditurecuts.Ruralresidentsandboroughswithlittleindustrialbase--suchasMat-Su--orunincorporatedboroughswhichthestatemanages--suchasYukon-Koyukuk--wouldfeelthereductioninexpendituresdisproportionatelytomoredevelopedandpopulatedpartsofAlaska.Onlyasmallworkforcewouldberequiredforprojectoperation,andtheApplicanthasprojectedthatmanywouldliveinthepermanentvillageonsite,aprojectionwithwhichStaffagrees.Becauseofthesefacts,impactstotheeconomyandemploymentwouldbeminimal,oncethearearecoveredfromthedeclineinpopulationbetween1990and1995.EMPLOYMENTTheApplicantassumesinitspopulationmodelthat85%oflaborersonboththeWatanaandDevilCanyonworkforceswouldcomefromtheRailbeltRegion,80%ofthesemi-skilledandskilledworkers,and65%oftheadministrativeandengineeringworkers.NolocalhireprogramisplannedbeyondconformingtoAlaskalawwhichrequiresthat"95[%]ofallnonsupervisoryemployeesbeAlaskaresidents"(ExhibitE,Suppl.Information,September1983,p.5-11-1).Anypersonwhoseprimaryresid~nceisinthestatequalifiesasaresident.TheApplicantassumesthatoverhalfoftheworkerswouldcomefromtheAnchoragearea,aboutaquarterfromFairbanks,andonlyabout7%fromtheMat-SuBorough.ThisisprimarilybecauseinAlaska,theconstructionindustryishighlyunionizedandunionhiringhallsarelocatedinthelargemetropolitanareas.NospecificpercentagewasassumedtocomefromtheYukon-Koyukukcommunities,butitwouldlikelybeasmallnumber.TheremainderofworkerswouldcomefromotherpartsofAlaskaandafewfromoutofstate(FrankOrth&Associates,1983:pp.43-44).Annualunemploymentishighontheaverage,withlargeseasonalvariations.Theproposedprojectwouldprovidemanyjobopportunities,althoughthesetoowouldbeseasonal.Theymayalsobeshort-term,asdifferentskillneedsinconstructionpassquickly(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982).Thus,workersfortheprojectwouldbeavailablefromtheRailbeltarea.Unemploy-mentproblemsforcurrentresidentswouldbereduced.BecausehiringwouldbethroughunionhallsinAnchorageandFairbanks,Mat-SuBoroughresidentswhoarenotunionmembersorskilledworkerswouldnotbeaslikelytoobtainprojectwork.Additionally,theparticularskillneededonaprojectmaybeavailableonlyfromlargelaborpoolsfoundinmetropolitanareas.Thus,directprojectworkopportunitiesmayhelptoreducethealreadyfairlylowunemploymentratesinAnchorageandFairbanks,butmaydolittletoreducethemuchlargerunemploymentinMat-SuBorough.OpportunitiesinsupportjobsgeneratedbytheincreaseddemandforserviceswouldbemorelikelytoemploylocalprojectareapersonsandhelptoreduceunemploymentinMat-Sucommunitiesnearthesite.However,currentMat-Suresidentswouldhavetocompetewithhouseholdmembersofinmigratingworkersforthesepositions(McAnerney,1982).Traditionally,constructionworkonlarge-scaleprojectspayshigherwagesthandosupportpositions.Attractedbyhighersalaries,someskilledworkersnowintheboroughwouldlikelymovetopositionsontheproject,leavingtheirformerpositionsopenfornewworkers.However,giventheoccupationaldistributiondescribedSectionN.l.l.5.2,fewresidentswouldbeeligibleforsuchamove.Thus,Mat-Suresidentswouldbecompetingforlower-payingsupportjobsinducedbytheproject.Morewomenwouldalsobedrawnintothelaborforcetofilllower-payingsupportjobstraditionallyheldbywomen.Counter-balancingtheexpansionofjobopportunitieswouldbecompetitionbetweenolderresidentsandinmigrantsforbusinessandjobs.Long-timeoperatorsofestablishedbusinessesmaynothavetheabilitytochangewiththenewandgreaterdemands.Localsmaynothavetheskillsneededforthegreatervarietyofmoreformalizedandspecializedjobscreated.Finally,asdiscussedinSectionN.2.1.2,large-scaleconstructionprojectsinAlaska(par-ticularlytheTrans-AlaskaPipeline)havehistoricallyattractedalargergroupofjob-seekersthancouldbehired(McAnerney,1982).Ifthisisthecasefortheproposedproject,thenunemploymentfiguresmaynotchangeormayevenincreaseinsomecommunities.Labordemandwouldstartin1985at1,100workers,buildtoapeakof3,498workersonWatanaconstruction,andthendroptoalowof649workersin1995.Thisboom-bustemploymentphenomenonwouldcontributetothevolatileunemploymentrecordofthepastdiscussedinSectionN.1.1.5.2: N-51TableN-17.CumulativeProjectedNumberofHouseholdsinImpactAreaCommunities,AlternateYearsPlus1990(PeakYear)and2002(EndofConstruction)t1Community/PlanningDistrict198Dt2198519871989 19901991 19931995 1997 19992001 2002Talkeetna209Appl.Rev.212 272312338 342 319 310316357 319298Borough3954788428789178449261,0301,0001,0291,071TrapperCreek74Appl.Rev.81153201234229176 156173185168 154Borough5668226266266172 182215157 156 163Houston197Appl.Rev.191205 217223229 229229 229232235237Borough1,2661,5321,803 1,9472,1032,3862,6552,8743,1073,2313,360Wasilla708Appl.Rev.681727763778803803 803 805814826 834Borough4,4805,5376,655 7,2607,9219,16410,400 11,46612,636 13,386 13,922Palmer839Appl.Rev.808 859901918 947948 948 950 961976 985Borough2,1972,5422,8573,012 3,173 3,4193,6043,6813,7473,7753,799Othert35,436Appl.Rev.5,4106,078 6,688 7,1327,1516,5776,3586,6006,8106,576 6,364(5,078) (5,434) (5,713) (5,836) (6,017)(6,014)(6,013)(6,023) (6,096)(6,189) (6,238)Borough5281,8972,2222,2832,3481,602 1,7041,8481,351 1,353 1,407Mat-SuBoroughTotalt37,283Appl.Rev.7,3828,2959,0499,6239,7019,0528.8039.0729,327 9,1018,889(7,049)(7,651)(8,075)(8,327) (8,566) (8,488) (8,458)(8,495) (8,613) (8,714) (8,762)Borough10,760 14,41317,50318,71020,002 21,11723,389 25,32526,39927,508 28,498Cantwell20Appl.Rev.166232298348 344325284285290282 276Healy105Appl.Rev.134143150154157 162168175182189 192Nenana148Appl.Rev.167180192199205 215228242256272 279PaxsonNAAppl.Rev.NANANANANANANANANANANAAnchorageCensusDivision61,791Appl.Rev.70,80974,38376,83578,13880,04182,171 83,521 85,28386,83689,00190,136FairbanksCensusOivision20,763Appl.Rev.24,478 25,63824,58424,96027,504 26,01528,354 26,62829,12827,60027,916t'BasedonthehouseholdsizesusedinTableN-7(seefootnote2)andTableN-16.t2FromTableN-7.Valuesareforcommunitiesonly,notforplanningdistrictssotheyaremorecomparabletotheRevisedApplicant'sprojections.WillowandBigLakeareincludedin"Other"category.t3Seefootnotes2and5inTableN-15. N-52bemostlikelytoliveinmobilehomes,motelsorothertemporaryunits,andevenforshortperiodsinrecreationalvehicles(Gale,1982;DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982).CombinedwiththefindingsdiscussedearlierinSectionN.2.1.1.3thatmoreworkersthanprojectedoftenareemployedonprojectsforshortperiodsoftime,itwouldbeexpectedthatdemandformotelroomsandmobilehomeswouldbehigh.AsdiscussedinSectionN.1.1.6,thereareveryfewunitsofthistypenorthoftheAnchoragearea.Itisnotpossibletoquantifypreciselythekindsofhousingneeded.However,ifthefindingsoftheearlierstudiesareusedasaguide,approximately50%ofthehousingdemandcouldbefortemporaryunitsratherthanforpermanentsingle-familyunits.Shortagesofallkindsofhousingintheprojectareacouldcreatesevereimpacts,particularlyonsmallcommunitieslikeTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwell.Considerableplanning,development,financing,andconstructionwouldhavetooccurbeforeandintheearlyyearsofWatanaconstructiontoavoidahousingshortage,evenunderthemoreconservativerevisedApplicant'sgrowthprojections.Tocomplicatetheseproblems,demandforhousingandparticularlyfortemporaryhousingwouldbehighestinsummerandfalloffinwinter.Workerswouldalsobecompetingwithtouristsinthesummerforthelimitedfacilitiesintemporaryunits,reducingtheflowoftouristsandtheunitsavailableforworkers.Seasonalvariationsindemandwoulddependonhowmanyworkerschose·totakepermanentresidencesortoremainintemporaryresidencesintheprojectareaoverthewintermonths.DemandwouldalsofallaftertheWatanaconstructionpeak,wouldincreaseagainunti1theDevilCanyonconstructionpeakin1999,andthendec1ine.Overbuildingisdifficulttomanage,especiallyinlightofthemanyuncertaintiesabouthousingandlocationpreferencesofworkers.Housingmarketsinboomtownsgenerallyenjoyanincreaseindemandatfirst,andthenfallintoarecessionasconstructionworkforcesleveloffanddeclineinsize(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982).Acharacteristicofboom-townorrapidgrowthsituationsisthatconstructionofhousingisdifficulttobeginbeforedemandexists.Thisisduetolackoffinancing,sufficientnumbersofhousingconstructionworkers,andwater,sewerandpowerhook-upsnotyetdevelopedbylocalgovernments.Developerswouldalsohavetocompetewiththeprojectforconstructionworkers.Sincetheprojectcouldpayhigherwages,housingconstructionmaysufferinlowerqualityandhighworkerturnover(DenverResearchInstituteetal.,1982;seealsoPayneandWelch,1982forareviewoftheliteratureonthesephenomena).Theincreaseddemandforhousinganddevelopablelandwouldalsocausepricestorise.OnsitehousingproposedbytheApplicant,ifattractivetoworkers,wouldhelptoavoidsomeofthesepressures,aswouldaworkercampatCantwell,but,asshowninTableN-15,substantialnumbersofworkersandsupportworkersrelativetocurrentpopulationareprojectedtochoosetoliveintheestablishedcommunities.Most,ifnotall,thesmalloperationsworkforcewouldliveinthepermanentvillageconstructedonsite.Thus,additionalimpactsfromtheoperationperiodbeyondtheboom-bustcyclesdescribedabovewouldbenegligible.N.2.1.1.7CommunityServicesandFiscalStatusCOMMUNITYSERVICESCommunityservicesintheprojectareaareprovidedbothonanindividualandcentralizedlevel.Wherecentralizedfacilitiesexist,theyare,ingeneral,providedandadministeredbyMat-SuBorough,orbythestateforunincorporatedYukon-KoyukukBorough.Largenumbersofincomingpopulationwouldchangethewaysomeoftheseservicesareprovidedandstresscurrentcapacities.Additionalserviceneedsfromproject-inducedpopulationalonehavebeenestimatedbytheStaffandareshowninTableN-18.TheyearswhenexistingcapacitieswouldbeequalledorexceededbyincomingpopulationareshowninTableN-19.ItisimportanttokeepinmindthefactsthattherevisedApplicantprojectionsareveryconservative,andtheBorough'sprojectionsarethatproject-relatedinmigrationwillbeconcentratednearthesite.Becauseproject-inducedpopulationincreasesprojectedforFairbanksandAnchoragearesoslight,serviceandfiscalimpactsareexpectedtobenegligible.However,shouldtransportationplansprovidecommutingtothesecities,impactscouldbegreater,asdiscussedinSectionN.2.1.1.2.ConcernhasbeenraisedinAnchoragethatthecitywillbeaccessibleasaplaceofresidenceforprojectworkers(Yarzebinski,1983).TheApplicanthasalreadyallocatedabout650peopletoAnchorageinthepeakWatanaconstructionyearof1990(TableN-13).ImpactstoFairbanksandAnchoragemetropolitanareasarediscussedqualitatively.Thediscussionisbasedontheassumptionthatifatransportationplanprovidedcommutingtothecities,eachwouldreceiveapercentageoftheworkforceandtheirhouseholdsasresidents.Inordertonarrowtheimpactrangeforthepurposesofdiscussionthatpercentageisassumedtobe10%exceptwheretheApplicanthasalreadymadeaprojectionforAnchorage.Thiswouldmeananoffsitepopulationofabout200peopletoFairbanksand650toAnchorageundertherevisedApplicant'sprojectionsandabout650toeachcityunderboroughprojectionsinthepeakWatanaconstructionyearof.1990[calculatedfromTableN-13(10%x[1,338totalMat-SuBorough+663AnchorageCensusDivision]~200)andTableN-14(10%x6,483Mat-SuBoroughTotal)].. Table N-18.Years When Existing or Planned Community Services Capacity of Project Area Communities Will Be Exceeded (includes service requirements for project-related population) Solid Schoolst 1 Community/Waste Secondary Hospital Planning District Water Sewers Disposal Elementary (Jr/Sr)Fire Police Facilities Talkeetna Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on 1990 2002+2002+Covered None exist Borough sources may sept ic tanks borough 1985 1986 2002+by not be may not be 1andfi 11 s borough adequate adequate Trapper Creek Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on 2002+(80 students)t2 May need Covered None exist Borough sources may septic tanks borough 2002+(90 students)t2 to acquire by not be may not be 1andfi 11 s own borough adequate adequate faci 1 ities Houston Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on 2002+2002+2002+Covered None exist :z septic tanks borough by I Borough sources may 1983 1983 1983 U"1 not be may not be 1andfi 11 s borough w adequate adequate Wasilla Appl.Rev.2002+Individual Rely on 2002+2002+/2002+1985 Covered None exist Borough 1983 sept ic tanks borough 1983 1983/1990 1983 by may not be 1andfi 11 s borough adequate Palmer Appl.Rev.2002+2002+Rely on 2002+2002+1985 2002+2002+ Borough 2002+1983 borough 1989 1990/2002+1983 1983 19851andfi11s Other Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on Correspondence courses Covered by Covered None exist Borough sources may septic tanks borough or attend in communities borough fires by not be may not be 1andfi 11 s districts borough adequate adequate Mat-Su Borough Totalt 3 Appl.Rev.NA NA 2002+2002+2002+NA 1985 Provided Borough NA NA 1985 1985 1985 NA 1985 in Palmer Table N-18.(Continued) Community/ Planning District Water Sewers Solid Waste Disposal Schoolst 1 Secondary Elementary (Jr/Sr)Fire Hospital Police Facilities Cantwell Appl.Rev. Borough Healy Appl.Rev. Borough Individual sources may not be adequate Individual sources may not be adequate Individual septic tanks may not be adequate Individual septic tanks may not be adequate Private 1andfill services may not be adequate Rely on private landfill 1985 Unknown 1985 Unknown 2002+ Unknown Covered by state Covered by state None exist None exist Nenana Appl.Rev. Borough Paxson Appl.Rev. Borough Individual sources may not be adequate Individual sources may not be adequate Individual septic tanks may not be adequate Individual septic tanks may not be adequate Rely on private landfill Rely on private landfi 11 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 'Unknown Covered None exist by state Covered None exist by state Z I tTl "'" t 1 Projection for Mat-Su Borough is based on the borough's planning value of 22.8%of population in school-aged children;for Cantwell 18%school-aged children assumed (Frank Orth &Associates,1983:p.69). t 2 Could attend in other communities. t 3 All entries for Mat-Su Borough services are based on assumption that the borough would not provide services for onsite popu- lation.The borough would have to administer and may contribute to financing of some of these services,particularly the school located onsite. NA =Not Applicable. Sources:Calculated from Tables N-8 and N-15 and standards from Stenehjem and Metzger (1980).Anchorage and Fairbanks do not appear on the table because the adequacy of their services cannot be estimated until worker transportation plans and work schedules are developed.However,see text discussion on estimates of service impacts in these cities under specified assumptions about transportation plans. Table N-19.Additional Community Services Requirements over Baseline for Project-Induced Population in 1990 (peak Watana construction work force)t 1 Solid Schoolst 2 Community/Waste Secondary Hospital Planning District Water Sewers Disposal Elementary (Jr/Sr)Fire Police Facilities Talkeetna Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on 1 class 1 class Would need 1 offi cer Would need Borough sources may septic tanks borough 3 classes 3 classes additional 2 offi cers full-time not be may not be 1andfi 11 s staff and health care adequate adequate full-time professionals employees Trapper Creek Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on 2 classes 2 classes Would need 2 officers Would need Borough sources may septic tanks borough 2 classes 2 classes community 2 offi cers full-t ime not be may not be 1andfi 11 s based hea lth care adequate adequate facil ities professionals Houston z I Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on No addit i ona 1 No additional No additional No addi-No additional <..n<..n Borough sources may septic tanks borough needs needs needs tional needs not be may not be 1andfi 11 s needs adequate adequate Wasilla Appl.Rev.No addi-Individual Rely on No addit i ona 1 No addit i ona 1 No additional No addi-No additional Borough tional needs septic tanks borough needs needs needs tional needs may not be 1andfill s needs adequate Palmer Appl.Rev.No addi-No additional Rely on No additional No additional No additional No addi-About 25% Borough tional needs borough needs needs needs tional additional needs 1andfill s needs facilities and staff Table N-19.(Continued) Solid Schoolst 2 Community/Waste Secondary Hospital Planning District Water Sewers Disposal Elementary (Jr/Sr)Fire Police Facil ities Other Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Rely on 2 classes 2 classes Would need 1 officer Rely on Palmer Borough,sources may septic tanks borough 18 classes or 18 classes or additional 7 officersnotbemaynotbe1andfi11sstaffand adequate adequate 1 school 1 school full-time employees Mat-Su Borough Totalt 3 Appl.Rev.NA NA Landfill/area 5 classes 5 classes Would need 3 officers see Palmer Borough NA NA needed several 5 classes 5 classes additional 11 offi cers entry years earlier +1 school +1 school staff;and than currently full-time planned employees Cantwell :z I .Appl.Rev.Individual Individual Private 4 classes 4 classes No additional 2 officers Would need U"I 0' sources may septic tanks landfill need full-time not be may not be may not be health care adequate adequate adequate professionals Healy Appl.Rev.-No addi-No additional No additional No addit i ona 1 No additional No addit i ona 1 No addi-No additional tional need need need need need tional need need need Nenana Appl.Rev.No addi-No additional No additional No addit i ona 1 No additional No additional No addi-No additional tional need need need need need tional need need need Paxson Appl.Rev.No addi-No additional No additional No addit i ona 1 No additional No additional No addi-No additional tional need need need need need tional need need need t 1 Calculated using Tables N-8,N-9,and N-14 and standards from Stenehjem and Metzger (1980). t 2 Each new class or school would require a teacher and other staff (principal,clerical,janitorial,librarian,etc.). N-57Insituationsofrapidgrowth,greatercentralizationandformalizationofcommunityservicesusuallyoccurs(PayneandWelch,1982;CorteseandJones,1977;alsoseeSec.N.2.1.1.3).Theseeffectsoccurbecauseofgreaterneedsforcoordinatedplanning,higherandmoreconsistentquality,greaterefficiencyinresourceuse,andmorecost-effectiveconstructionorprovisionofservices.Individualprovisionofservices(e.g.,individualwells)onanas-neededbasismaynolongersufficewhenhousingisbuiltinanticipationofneedsorhurriedlyasdemandgrowssuddenly.Becausemanyinmigrantswouldbefromlessruralareaswhichhadcentralizedservices,expectationsforserviceswouldalsobedifferentfromthoseintheexistingcommunity.DuringconstructionoftheTrans-AlaskaPipeline,communityservicesweregreatlystrainedbythelargeinmigratingpopulation(McAnerney,1982;Lewis,1983).Withexpandingpopulationandneedsforservicesgotheneedforalargerstafftoplanandmanagethoseservices.Basedonprojectedproject-relatedincreasesof1,000and6,500persons(dependingonthesourceusedinTableN-14),betweenoneandeightadditionalstaffmemberswouldbeneededinMat-SuBoroughgeneraladministrationoverpersonnelneedsrelatedtobaselinegrowth(calculatedfromTableN-14andstandardfromStenehjemandMetzger,1980:p.59).Mat~SuBoroughplannersusearatioofaboutsixgeneralandschooldistrictadministratorsper1000population(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.IV-28).Thiswouldmeanproject-relatedincreaseofabout6to40newstaffmembers.Aslongascommunitiesremainsmallandlotsizesanacreormore,individualwellsandseptictanksmightbeadequatetoprovidewaterandsewerservice.However,suchstandardswouldnotnecessarilyholdinTrapperCreek,Talkeetna,andCantwelLAsrapidgrowthoccurs,itisaccompaniedbyaresidentialdevelopmentboominresidentialbuilding,bothinsingle-familyandmulti-familyunits,bothonlotssmallerthantheexistingruralcommunitytradition.Pressureisplacedbydevelopersanticipatinggrowthandbyinmigrantsforcentralizedwaterandsewerservices.Thus,communitieslikeTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwell,whichwouldallexperiencerapidgrowthbeyondbaselineprojections,arelikelytobefacedwithexpectationsofanddemandsforcentralizedwatersuppliesandsewagetreatment.TrapperCreekalsohasalimitedsupplyofsuitablegroundwatersources,limitingthenumberofindividualwellsthatcouldbeused(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-38).Becausethesecommunitiesarecurrentlyunincorporatedand,therefore,cannotcollecttaxesorplanandprovidesuchservices,Mat-SuBoroughwouldberesponsibleforthesetasksforTalkeetnaandTrapperCreekandthestateforCantwell.ThelargercommunitiesofPalmerandWasillaarenowfacingshortagesinwaterandsewerservice,respectively,accordingtoBoroughgrowthprojections.Basedonthedistributionofproject-inducedpopulationtothesecommunities,theprojectwouldnotacceleratetheneeds.Anchorage'swaterandsewersystemneedswouldbeonlyslightlyacceleratedbytheincomingpopulationofabout650.Fairbanksisalreadyinneedofexpandedwaterfacilities,althoughsewerfacilitiesareexpectedtosufficeuntilafter2000.Using10%ofboroughproject-inducedprojections,650persons,thecitywouldneedexpandedsewerfacilitiesayearortwoearlierandwouldhavetoexpandcapacitiesforitsnewwatersystems.Littleaccommodationwouldhavetobemadeunder10%ofrevisedApplicant'sprojections,200persons.SolidwastedisposalistheresponsibilityoftheboroughinMat-SuBorough.Accordingtoboroughprojections,existinglandfillswouldsufficeonlyuntil1985.PlansareunderwaytodevelopnewcentralizedlandfillsnearPalmerandHoustonthatwouldhavesufficientcapacitytolast100years.Theproblemremains,however,oftransportingthewastesfromTalkeetnaandTrapperCreek-whoselocalboroughlandfillsiteswouldbefilledmorerapidlyduetoproject-relatedpopulationgrowth.Developmentoftransferstationstoeasethistransportproblemisalreadycalledforinboroughplans(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.14"'39)basedontheirpopulationprojectionsanticipatingtheSusitnaproject.Purchasingextratrucksanddevelopmentoftransferstationsinthenorthernpartoftheboroughwouldaddtoboroughexpenses.TheconstructionoftheSusitnaprojectwouldonlyexacerbatetheseproblems.ImpactstotheschoolsystemareonceagainfoundinMat-SuBoroughforthemostpartonlyusingtheborough'sgrowthprojections.TheSkwentnaElementarySchoolinSusitnaValleyiscurrentlynearcapacity(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.IV"'29).Talkeetnaschoolswouldreachcapacitysoonestfrominmigratingproject-relatedpopulations--in1985(borough)or1990(Applicantrevised)and1986forelementaryandsecondaryschools,respectively--asmuchas20yearssoonerthanwithoutSusitnaunderISERbaselineprojections(seeTablesN-8, N-9,N-14,andN-18).TrapperCreekchildrenwouldbeservedadequatelybyexistingfacilitiesaccordingtobothsetsofprojections.BecauseoftheSusitnaproject,schools~ervingresidentsoutsidecommunitieswouldrequire18additionalclasses,theequivalentofanewschool,intheirelementaryandintheirsecondaryschools- atotalof36additionalclasses.HoustonandWasillaschoolswouldneedtobeexpandedverysoon,aswouldotherareaschoolsornewonesaddedinruralareaseventuallyaccordingtoMat-SuBoroughplanners.Butagain,thissituationwouldbetruewithorwithouttheSusitnaproject,asboroughprojectionshavenoproject-relatedpopulationdistributedtotheseplanningdistricts(DOWLEngineers,1983:pp.IV-29-IV-31).Constructionoftheprojectwouldaddonlyabout10to12childrentotheschoolpopulationineachofthetownsofPalmer,Houston,andWasilla,underrevisedApplicant'sprojections. N-58Undertheassumptionthat10%ofthepeakWatanaworkforcelivingoffsitecouldcommutetoFairbanksandAnchoragetolive,about150and45children,respectively,wouldbeaddedtotheelementaryandsecondaryschoolpopulationsby1990,undertherevisedApplicant'sprojections.Thisadditionalnumberwouldbetheequivalentofapproximatelytwoextraclasses,alongwiththestafftoteachandadministerthem.However,thesechildrenwouldprobablybedispersedacrossschools,sothattheprimaryproblemcreatedwouldbeovercrowding.Underboroughprojec-tions,about150childrenwouldbeaddedtoeachofthecityschoolsystems.Thisistheequivalentofaboutfiveclasses.Thisnumberofchildrenwouldcreategreaterdifficultiesforschoolsystemstoexpand,withoutadvanceplanning,particularlyinthesmallersysteminFairbanks.BecausetheonsiteschoolisinMat-SuBorough,theboroughschooldistrictwouldprefertohaveresponsibilityforitsoperation.ItisnotclearnowwhethertheboroughorApplicantwouldrecruitandpayforschoolstaff.Thisinformationwillnotbeavailableuntil1985(ExhibitE,September1983,Supp1.Responses).Iftheboroughwerehe1dresponsib1e,thiswouldaddtoexistingneeds.Policeservicesareprovidedbythestateformostoftheprojectimpactarea.Accordingtoboroughprojections,expandedpoliceservicesareneededimmediately(TableN-7),withorwithouttheSusitnaproject.Expandedpopulationrelatedtotheprojectwouldonlyexacerbatethisproblem,especiallyinthenorthernpartoftheBorough,whereasmanyas11newofficerswouldbeneededinTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,anddispersedresidentialareas(other)(TableN-18).Palmer,Wasilla,andHouston,whichhavetheirownpoliceforces,wouldhavetoexpandregardlessoftheSusitnaprojectschedule.Cantwell'srapidgrowthwouldcallforexpandedpoliceservices.,AnchorageandFairbankswouldneedonetothreeadditionalofficers,dependingontheprojectionused,andunderthe"10%inmigratingworkforce"assumption.Boomtowngrowthpatternsareoftenaccompaniedbyincreasesincrime,andbytheappearanceofnewkindsofcrimes,astheface-to-facesocialcontrolsandtrustofsmalltownsisreplacedwithamoreurban-likesetting.Thistrendhasbeendocumentedinseveralboomtownsituationsinthe10wer-48(KassoverandMcKeown,1979;Finsterbusch,1980;Freudenburg,1981;ColoradoDivisionofCriminalJustice,1981;PayneandWelch,1982).Whetherornotthetrendoccurshere,additionalstatepoliceandpatrolcarswouldbeneeded,inadditiontoexpandedsocialservice(e.g.,counselingagencies)anddetentionfacilities.Ifthetrenddoesoccur,moreserviceswouldbeneededasthestandardratioofpolicestafftopopulationmovesfromaruraltoamoreurbanizedbasis.TheBorough,assumingtheprojectisconstructed,isconsideringestablishingpoliceserviceareastocorrespondwithBoroughfireservicedistricts(DOWLEngineer!1983:p.IV-51).FireprotectionequipmentalsoistheresponsibilityoftheboroughandtheStateincommunitiesnearthesite.However,staffisforthemostpartvolunteer,exceptinthesouthernpartofMat-SuBorough.BesidesexpandedornewfacilitiesinTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,Houston,andCantwell,therewouldbeaneedtohirefull-timepaidprofessionals,ratherthancontinuingtorelyonvolunteers(PayneandWelch,1982).Thenumberofmanyfull-timeworkersthatwouldbeneededwoulddependonthenumberanddistributionoffirestationsandtrucks.Expensesforthenewstaffwouldbeincurredbytheborough,addingtoincreasedburdensfromproject-relatedgrowth.HospitalfacilitiesinMat-SuBoroughwouldneedtobeexpandedsoontomeetthedemandsofgrowth.TheSusitnaprojectwouldacceleratethisneedconsiderably,asitwouldincreasetotalboroughpopulationbybetween11%and20%abovebaseline(TableN-16).Besideshospitals,full-timehealthprofessionalswouldbeneededbeyondthephysician'sassistantsandparamedicsnowinsmallclinicsinmanyofthecommunities.Standardsforthenumberneededareestimatedat1.5full-timephysiciansforeach1,000population(Olseneta1.,1981:p.61).ApplyingthisstandardwouldmeanthatTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwellwouldrequirefull-timeresidenthealthprofessionalsbefore1989.Emergencyhelicoptertransportservicestocitieswheremoreserioushealthneedscanbemetwouldnotbeadequateforthegrowingpopulationintheprojectarea.Itisoftendifficulttoattractsuchprofessionalstoprivatepracticeinruralareas;thussomesortofsubsidizedsalaryprogrammaybenecessary(PayneandWelch,1982).Mat-SuBoroughcurrentlyhasaHealthSystemsPlanwhichcallsfortheestablishmentofsmallhealthclinicsinmoreofitsruralcommunities(DOWLEngineers,1983:p.IV-32).Ithasbeendocumentedinotherboomtownsituationsthatthecaseloadsofmentalhealthagenciesrisesdramatically(GilmoreandDuff,1977).OtherstudiesofexperienceduringconstructionoftheTrans-AlaskaPipelineindicatethatsocialandpsychologicalproblemsfromrapidgrowthrelatedtolarge-scaleconstructionprojectsalsoincreasedconsiderably(KassoverandMcKeown,1979:p.54;McAnerney,1982).Theelderly-particularlylong-timeresidentsoftheimpactareasstudied,wivesofinmigratingprojectworkerswhosetuphouseholdsinthelocalcommuni-ties,andchildrenwerefoundtobeparticularlysusceptibletothestressesandchangesoftherapidgrowth,relocation,andchangesinlifestyleandthelocalsocialstructure(CorteseandJones,1977;Freudenburg,1979b,1980,1981;KassoverandMcKeown,1979).Tomeettheseneeds,newformsofservicesforwhichthereisnoprecedentincommunitieslikeTrapperCreek,Talkeetna, N-59andCantwellwouldbeneeded(andinPaxsonandothers,shouldthepopulationdistributionshiftfromproblemsinhousing).Counselingandmentalhealthagenciesand/orpersonnelwouldbeneededintheselocalcommunities--evenifonlyonatemporarybasisduringtheperiodofgreatestgrowth.Nostandardshavebeensettoestimatethenumberrequired.Itisunclearifsuchservicescouldbeprovidedbytheborough,thestate,orthroughencouragementofprivateagencies.TheincrementinpopulationinAnchorageandFairbanks,assumingcommutingplanstothesecities,wouldprobablynotstressfurtherexistinghealthcarefacilitiesandprofessionals.AhospitalandmedicalprofessionalsprovidedbytheApplicantonsitewouldservetheonsitepopulation(ExhibitE,September1983,Suppl.Responses)sothatthispopulationwouldnotaddtoresponsibilitiesofoffsiteagencies.CommunityrecreationalandculturalfacilitiesarenotestablishedinTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwell.Project-relatedinmigrantswouldnotonlyincreasethepopulationdensityofthesecommunities,makingcommunityfacilitiesdesirable,butwouldalsobecomposedofpeoplefromlessruralareaswhohaveexpectationsthattheseservicesexist.Basedonprojectionsassumingproject-construction,Mat-SuBoroughanditscommunitieshavealreadyrecognizedneedsforlibraries,parks,andothercommunityfacilitiesandprograms(DOWLEngineers,1983:pp.IV-47-IV-49).Providingtheseserviceswouldaddtolocalandboroughplanningandcostloads.Aseriousprobleminrapidgrowthsituationsisthatcommunityservicesareneededbythetimethepopulationarrives.Thus,theymustbeplannedandconstructedinadvance,causinganumberofdifficulties.Beforeaprojectisunderway,manyuncertaintiesexistastoitsscale,schedules,timingofapprovalbylicensingagencies,sizeandnatureofworkforce,andwhereinmigrantswouldsettle.Theboroughmaynothaveadequatestafftoadjustandimplementplansquickly,letalonethefinancialresourcestoexpandtheservicesinadvanceoftaxrevenuesfromthenewpopulation.Asdiscussedearlier,governmentagenciesmaylosetheirmostskilledworkerstotheconstructionprojectswhichpayhigherwages.Althoughtheseimpactscannotbequantified,theycouldbeseriousforMat-SuBoroughplannersandstateplannersforYukon-KoyukukBorough.IfcommunityserviceswereexpandedinTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwelltosupportpeakpopulationgrowth,theywouldsufficebeyondtheirneedsafterthepeakhadpassed,basedontherevisedApplicant'sprojections.BoroughprojectionsshowcontinuedgrowthforTalkeetnawhich,ifitoccurs,wouldmeanthattheexcesscapacitywouldsoonbeused.TrapperCreekandCantwell,however,showlittle,ifany,growthaboveorapproachingthelevelofthe1990peak;thusthesecommunitiescouldbeleftwithunusedcapacity.Theunusedserviceswouldbecostlytomaintainorclose,potentiallycausingfinancialproblemsforMat-SuBorough(inthecaseofTrapperCreek)andthestate(inthecaseofCantwell).Carefulplanningwouldbeneededtosupplyforpeakdemandin1990and1999andyetnotoverbuild.FISCALSTATUSAsdiscussedinSectionN.1.1.7.2,Mat-SuandYukon-Koyukukboroughsarehighlydependentonpropertytaxesandstateandfederalfunding.Expendituresforservicesneededbecauseofproject-relatedinmigrationwouldputaburdenonbothsourcesoffunds.TheApplicant,basedonassumptionsofgreaternon-projectbaselinegrowththanassumedhere,hasprojectedslightshortfallsofboroughfundsin1990(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5;p.E-5-87).Thisprojectionisbasedontheassumptionthattaxrevenuesareavailabletotheboroughassoonasthenewpopula-tionarrives.However,alaginrevenuesisusuallythecase.Evenifboroughrevenuespercapitaareeventuallysufficienttoequalcosts,inboomtownsituationstherevenuesarecollectedonlyafterexpendituresforthenewpopulationarerequired[seeDenverResearchInstituteetal.,(1979)andLee(1980)fordiscussionsandprojectionsofrevenuelagsinthecaseofoilshaledevelopmentinruralColorado].BecauseofthelagandbecauseoftheupdatedISERbase-linewhichprojectsasmallerbaselinetaxpopulationrelativetoinmigrants,boroughrevenueshortfallsarelikelytobehigherthanestimatedbytheApplicant.Additionally,deficitsaccruedduringthefirsttwoyearsorsoofprojectconstructionhavenotbeenestimatedinotherenergy-development-relatedboomtownsituations(StinsonandVoelker,1982).Thisisparticularlytruewhentheconstructionscheduleislong,andtheconstructionworkforceverylargerelativetotheoperationsworkforce(StinsonandVoelker,1982).;Ifpercapitarevenuesremainedcomparabletotheexistinglevels,increaseswouldbeintherangeofthepercentagesofpopulationgrowthoverbaselineestimates,showninTableN-15.However,itisdifficulttoincorporatethe1agperiodintosuchquantifications.Revenueshortfallswouldbehigherintheearlieryearsofgrowth,i.e.,before1990,asincreasedrevenuesarenotrealizeduntillateryears.Itisintheseearlieryears,e.g.,1985to1987,whentheneedfornewandexpandedserviceswouldbegreatest.IfMat-SuBoroughwishedtoanticipatedemandandexpandservicespriortoexpectedgrowth,theshortfallswouldoccurbefore1985. N-60Withoutastrongindustrialbase,Mat-SuBoroughandthelargercommunitiesinthesouthernpartoftheboroughmusteitherwaituntilpropertytaxesarecollectedfrominmigrantsbeforefinancingnewservices,raisetaxesofexistingresidentstobuildinanticipation,relyonstatefinancing,orborrowmoney(bysellingbondsorbysomeothermeans).Allofthesemeanshavetheirdisadvantages,andallbutthefirstarecomplicatedbytheuncertaintiesintheproject'sschedule,permitting,andworkforcesizeandcharacteristics.Iftheboroughchosetoincreaseservicesinanticipationofinmigration,itwouldberesponsibleforbuildingpossiblyaschoolandfireandpolicestationsintheTalkeetna/TrapperCreekarea,expandinglandfills,andthenhiringthestafftooperatethefacilities.Boroughplannerscouldalsogofurtherintheirplanningandbuildsewerandwatersystemstoencourageresidentialdevelopers,establishalibraryandcommunityrecreationfacilities,setupaclinicandhirefull-timeresidenthealthprofessionals.TofinancetheseitemswouldseverelystrainBoroughresourcesthatarealreadystrainedmeetingtomeetingdemandsofcontinuedgradualgrowth.ThestatewouldnotonlyberesponsibleforplanningandfinancingexpansionofserviceinYukon-Koyukukcommunities,butwouldalsobearsomeoftheburdenofMat-SuBoroughexpenses.Forexample,thestateprovidesmostofthefundsforeducationandthuswouldbeaprimaryfinancerofnewschoolfacilitiesandstaff.Additionally,historicallythestatehasalwayscometotheaidofboroughsinneedofmoney(FrankOrth&Associates,1983).GivenshortfallsinMat-SuBoroughrevenuesinadvanceoftheinmigratingpopulation,aidwouldlikelyberequested.Thestate,alreadyfacingdecliningrevenues(seeSec.N.l.l.3),wouldbefurtherstrainedbysuchneeds.BecausetheApp1icant'splansforwhowouldmanagecommunityservicesonsiteduringoperationarenotyetavailable,thepotentialimpactoftheseadditionalservicescannotbeestimated.However,theApplicantwouldbearthecostofconstructionoftheseservices,reducingthisinitialimpact.Maintenanceandoperationcostswouldprobablynotbe1argefortheborough,butwouldbeanadditionalload.Declineindemandforserviceswouldoccuraftertheconstructionworkforceandpopulationpeakin1990.Theboroughandstatewouldhavetotakethisdeclineintoaccountintheirplanningsoasnottooverbuildandbeleftwithmaintenancecostsforunusedcapacities.TrapperCreekandCantwell,projectedtosufferthemostsevereboom-and-bustcycle,wouldbeparticularlysusceptibletothissituation.N.2.1.1.8TransportationAlltransportationmodesandrouteswouldbeusedmoreheavilyduringprojectconstruction.Highwayuse,particularlyontheDenaliandParksHighways,wouldincreasethemost.BecausetheParksHighwayiscurrentlyusedatonlyabout10%capacity,fewdifficultiesareanticipatedalongmostofthishighway.Somecongestioncouldoccurduringpeaktouristseasonswhenprojectcommutersincreasethealreadygreatervolumes.TheDenaliHighwaywouldbepavedandclearedinwinterbetweenCantwellandtheprojectaccessroad,increasingusebyrecreationandtouristvehic1es.Thishighwayisalsotheonlyrouteconnect~dtotheprojectaccessroad.Thus,trafficvolumeonthishighwaycouldincreasesUbstantiallyfromusebycommuterstotheproject.TheApplicantestimatesthatforthepeakconstructionyearof1990,theDenaliHighwaywouldbeusedbyapproximately90lightandheavytrucksperday.Commutervehiclevolumecouldbeashighas800passengervehiclesperday,dependingonwhattransportationandwork-leaveoptionsareavailableforonsiteworkers.Thiswouldbeaconsiderableincreaseoverthecurrentaveragedailyvolumeof50to120vehiclesandtwiceprojectedvolumewithouttheproject(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,p.E-5-36).TheStateDepartmentofTransportationhasrecommendedthattheDenaliHighwaybeupgradedandwidenedevenwithouttheproject.Thestartoftheprojectwouldmeanthattheroadwouldhavetobepavedaswellasupgradedandwidened,andtheactionwouldtakeplacesoonerthanplannedwithouttheproject(ExhibitE,September1983Suppl.Information,pp.5-9-1-5-9-2).Theadditionalvolume,theimprovements,andtheneedtokeepDenaliHighwayclearinwinterwouldmeanadditionalmaintenanceexpensesfortheStateDepartmentofTranspor-tation.Additionally,accordingtotheApplicant,thestatewouldalsoberesponsibleformaintainingtheaccessroadafteritisbuiltandduringandafterconstructionofbothdams,compoundingproject-inducedexpenses.Increasedpopulationincommunities,particularlyinTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwell,wouldnecessitateimprovementandexpansionoflocalroadsystems.Theresponsibilityforp1anningandfinancingconstructionandmaintenanceoftheseroadswouldbewithprivatedevelopersorwithMat-SuBorough(forTalkeetnaandTrapperCreek)andthestate(forCantwell).Theseroadswouldideallybebuiltpriortomosthousingconstruction,addingtopre-projectfinancingproblemsandadministrativeburdenstoprivatedevelopersandtotheBoroughdescribedinSectionN.2.1.1.7. N-61TheApplicantstatesthatmostequipmentwouldbeshippedtotheprojectareabyrail,usingtherailheadtobebuiltatCantwell.Becausetheraillineoperatesatonly20%ofcapacity(Sec.N.l.l.8),therewouldbelittleimpactonrailroadoperations.However,locatingtherailheadatCantwellwouldincreasetrafficonlocalroadswhicharenowoftenunmaintained.ItwouldalsocreatetrafficcontrolproblemsatintersectionsbetweenrailheadaccessroadsandtheParksandDenaliHighways.Congestionandtrafficcontrolproblemswouldinterferewithlocalandin-transittrafficandtouristtraffic,onwhichthecommunityeconomicsystemisbased.BecauseairandfloatplanetravelarecommoninAlaska,increasedpopulationintheareawouldlikelyincreaseuseoflocalairfields.Airstripsonsitemayalsoincreaseairtraveltothisformerlylessaccessiblearea.Asconstructionpopulationsdeclinebetween1991and1994andagainafter1999,project-relatedtrafficvolumeonallmodesoftransportationwoulddecrease.However,althoughusagedrops,theneedtomaintainneworimprovedroadsremains.Ifadecisionismadetoretainalltheroadsandallowpublicuseoftheprojectaccessroad,thenMat-SuBoroughandtheStateDepartmentofTransportationwouldhaveresponsibilityformaintenance.N.2.1.2DevilCanyonN.2.1.2.1PopulationPopulationprojectionscoveringboththeWatanaandDevilCanyondamconstructionperiodsareshowninTableN-15.Discussionofpopulationimpact,boomtownphenomena,andissuesinmakingprojectionsappearsinSectionN.2.1.1.2.TheDevilCanyonconstructionperiodwouldcreateasecond,moremoderateboom-and-bustcycle.Additionally,aninfluxofjob-seekersbeyondthenumberthatcanbehiredmayrecur.ImpactsontheareawouldnotbeassevereasduringtheWatanadamperiodbecauseadjustmentstorapidgrowthwouldhavebeenmadebefore.Thepopula-tionprojectionsarethebasisforallothersocioeconomicimpactprojections.SmallercommunitieslikeTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwell,stillintheprocessofrecover-ingfromthepopulationgrowthanddecline,wouldexperiencethegreatestincreasesagain.Additionally,therailextensionconstructedfromGoldCreektotheDevilCanyoncampfortransportofmaterialsandsupplies(ExhibitE,Vol.1,p.A-7-18)maycausepopulationinmigrationtoGoldCreek.Onlyaverysmallnumberofpeoplecurrentlyliveintheareaaroundthiscommunity(seeSec.N.l.l.2).Evenaverysmallinfluxofpopulationwouldmeanasubstantialincrease.N.2.1.2.2InstitutionalInstitutionalissuesfortheDevilCanyondamconstructionandoperationperiodswouldbesimilartothosedescribedforWatanaDamconstructioninSectionN.2.1.1.3,althoughatlowermagnitudes.Demandsforthegrowthtothesecondpeakin1999wouldbeplacedonlocalandBoroughgovernmentsforservices.However,becausemuchofthegreatestgrowthspurtwouldhavepassed,adequateadjustmentsmayalreadyhavetakenplacesothatthesedemandscanbecopedwithadequately.Nativecorporationinterestsandlocallifestylesmayhaveadaptedand,ifstillnotresolved,wouldbeabletousepastexperienceonWatanatoadjusttothenew,butlessseveregrowth.N.2.1.2.3EconomicsandEmploymentMajorimpactsoftheboomandbustcyclesinthelocaleconomyandemploymentsituationweredescribedinSectionN.2.1.1.5.TheDevilCanyonconstructionperiodwouldprolongsomeoftheseeffects,butwouldalsomaintainforafewmoreyearsahigherlevelofdemand.Businessesandworkersalikecouldperhapsprofitfromthisperiodtoadjustandstabilizetheiroperationsandtoplanforthebustperiodaftertheyear2000.However,thedeclineindemandsbetweenworkforcepeaks(1990until1995)andsmallerincreasetothe1999peakmayleadtothefailureofsomebusinesses.Unemploymentwouldalsoincreaseinthisperiod,andafterthepeakplacingmorefinancialandadministrativeburdensonthesocialservicesystemsoflocalandstategovernments.TheApplicanthasestimatedthatlabordemandonDevilCanyonwouldbeginabout1994,reachapeakofabout1700in1999,andthendroptoanoperationsworkforceof157by2002(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,TableE.5.28).ItcannotbepredictedhowmanyoftheworkersfromtheWatanaphasewouldremainintheareaonthehopesofbeingrehiredontheDevilCanyonphase.However,the1999peakyearforDevilCanyonwouldemployonlyalittleoverhalfthenumberofworkersofthepeakemploymentyearontheWatanaphase(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.5,TableE.5.28).Thus,evenifthesameskillsandworkerscouldbeusedonboth,overhalfwouldnotbeneededafter1995.TheoperationsworkforceonWatanawouldbelessthan5%ofthepeakworkforce.TheApplicantexpectsthat50%oftheinmigrantswouldremaintoworkonnewprojectsandperhapslaterbeemployedonDevilCanyon.Thisexpectationisbasedontheassumptionthattheycan N-62findinterimemployment.IftheseinmigrantsremaininAnchorageorFairbanks,morejoboppor-tunitiesmayexist.However,unlessplansfornewlarge-scaleconstructionprojectsinMat-SuBoroughdevelopinthenextdecade,workersremainingthereduringtheinterimandaftercomple-tionofDevilCanyonmayraiseunemploymentstatistics.Thus,theApplicant'sestimateof50%overlapinprojectworkforcesisprobablyhigh.Litt1eifanyimpactstotheeconomyandemp1oymentwou1dbecausedbytheoperati011period,beyondthoseofadjustmenttothedeclinesafterpeakemployment,asdiscussedaboveandinSectionN.2.1.1.5.N.2.1.2.4HousingAgeneraldiscussionofhousingimpactswasincludedinSectionN.2.1.1.6.TheseimpactswouldcarrythroughtheDevilCanyonconstructionperiod,whenamoremoderategrowthanddeclineperiodwouldoccur.Temporaryhousing(apartments,mobilehomes,motels)builtduringtheWatanadamperiod,ifretained,wouldservefortheDevilCanyonperiod.If,afterworkingoverthelongscheduleofbothprojects,someworkersdecidetoremainintheareapermanently,sufficientleadtimewouldexisttoconstructadditionalpermanenthousingtomeetthedemand.Threecabins,onlyoneofwhichisusedandmaintained,wouldbeinundatedbytheDevilCanyondamandimpoundment.OtherimpactstohousingwerediscussedinSectionN.2.1.1.6.Asdiscussed,theDevilCanyondamconstructionperiodwouldexacerbatetheboom-bustcycleproblemsinhousingavailability,construction,andmarketsbycausingasecondboomperiod.AswithWatanaDam,theoperationsworkforcenecessaryforDevilCanyondamwouldbesosmallrelativetoearlierconstructionworkforcesthatadditionalimpactswouldbenegligible.N.2.1.2.5CommunityServicesandFiscalStatusCommunityservicesexpandedtomeetdemandduringtheWatanadamconstructionperiodwouldsufficefortheDevilCanyondamconstructiollperiod.Revenueswouldalsohavecaughtupwithexpendituressothatnewortemporaryservicescouldbemaintained.Thus,negligibleadditionalimpactswouldbeexpected.Theoperationperiodwould addnonewimpactsandwouldbetheendofthedeclineinincreaseddemandforcommunityservices.N.2.1.2.6TransportationOverallproposedproject-relatedtransportationimpactsarediscussedinSectionN.2.1.1.8.DevilCanyondamconstructionandoperationperiodwouldonlyprolongsomeoftheimpacts(e.g.,increasedtrafficvolumeandneedforroadmaintenance),butwouldprobablynotnecessitateconstructionofmoretransportationfacilities.TheoneplacewheresomedisruptionofnormalrailactivitiesmightoccurisattheintersectionofthemainraillineandthespuratGoldCreek.Unlessdeliveriesandtransfersofmaterialswerescheduledaroundroutinerailtraffic,somedelaysmightoccur.N.2.1.3AccessRoutesTheconstructionanduseofaccessrouteswouldhaveonlyafewminorsocioeconomicimpacts.AsdiscussedinSectionN.2.1.1.8,existenceoftheaccessroadwouldmeanincreaseduseofDenaliHighwaybycommuters,byheavydutyequipment,andbytrucksdeliveringsuppliestothesite.TheStateDepartmentofTransportationwouldhavetheresponsibilityformaintainingDenaliHighwayand,accordingtotheApplicant,theaccessroadonceitwasconstructed.Maintenanceactivitiesfortheaccessroadwouldaddslightlytostateexpenses.Boththerailcorridorandline(especiallyifleftinoperationafterprojectcompletion)andtheroadwouldalsoincreasetheaccessibilityoftheprojectsiteareafortouristsandrecrea-tionalandcommercialhunting,fishing,andtrapping.NativeAlaskanswouldhaveincreasedaccesstotheirlandforsubsistenceusesorfordevelopmentofcommercialrecreationfacilities.Increasedaccessibilitywouldbeseenbysomeasanopportunityforexpandedresidentialandcommercialdevelopment;otherswouldfeelincreasedaccesswoulddetractfromthevalueoftheareaasaremote,relativelyundevelopedwilderness(FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,1983).Becauseofits1ocationattheheadoftheproposedrailspurtotheDevi1Canyonsite,andattheheadofanaccessroad,GoldCreekandthesurroundingareawouldbeaffectedbythecon-structionofthedam.ConstructionoftheaccessroadbridgecrossingtheSusitnaRiverwouldbeginthreeyearspriortodamconstruction,inabout1992or1993.Railconstructionandworkonotherportionsoftheaccessroadwouldbeginayearlater.Constructionworkersmaychoosetoestablishresidences,eventemporarily,inGoldCreek,usingtheAlaskaRailroadtogainaccesstoservicesinotherRailbeltcommunities.Ifworkersonconstructionofthedamwereallowedtocommutetothesiteontheroadorbyrail,manyofthemmayalsochooseGoldCreekforpermanentorlong-termtemporaryresidence.Besidesproximity,theGoldCreekareawouldbeattractivefortheavailabilityofprivatelandforpurchaseanddevelopment(seeSec.N.l.l). N-63BecauseGoldCreekisnotincorporatedanddataonitarenotgatheredindependentoftheboroughortheApp1icantIs"Other"category,quantitativebaselineandwith-projectimpactscannotbemade.AlthoughthecurrentpopulationofGoldCreekisnotknownprecisely,thecommunityisverysma11.Unti1workertransportationplansaredeveloped,evenqualitativestatementsaboutproject-inducedgrowthareverytentative..Evenaslightincreasewouldaffectgreatlythenatureofthesettlementforthoseminersandrecreationalpropertyownerswhonowlivethere.Thequalityoflifeforthesepeoplewhovaluetheirisolationandthewildernesswouldchange--bereduced,intheeyesofmost,shouldexpansionoccurthere.Growthdirectlyrelatedtoprojectconstructioncouldbeginin1992andcontinuetothepeakofDevilCanyonconstructionperiodin1999.However,becauseoftheaccessprovidedtotheareabytheprojectstructures,growthindirectlyrelatedtotheprojectcouldcontinuetochangethenatureofthesettlement.Conflictscouldalsobeexpectedbetweenpre-projectresidentsandthosewhocamelater.Becauseofthesmallsizeofthecommunity,evenwithgrowth,currentservicefacilitieswouldsufficeandresidentswouldrelyonotherRailbeltcommunitiesformanyneeds.N.2.1.4.PowerTransmissionFacilitiesConstructionofthetransmissionlinesandpowerhouseswouldhaverelativelyfewsocioeconomicimpactsseparatefromthoseoftheconstructionofthetwodams,discussedinSectionsN.2.1.1andN.2.1.2.Afewconstructionworkersmaychoosetomovebetweentemporarylodgingfacilitiesfollowingtheprogressofconstructionoftheline,butthisisnotcharacteristicofmosttransmissionlineworkersinthelower48states.Theyaremorelikelytosettlefortheentireconstructionperiodinanestablishedcommunityandcommutetothesite(Gale,1982).Occasionaltrafficcongestionmayoccurduringconstructionasequipmentisdeliveredalongtheroute.Thelinemaygothroughexistingresidentialareasorareasplannedfordevelopment(ExhibitE,Vol.1).Controversiesoverreductionsinpropertyvaluesoflotsneartheright-of-waywouldbeexpected.Temporarylossesinpropertyvaluesandpermanentchangesindevelopmentduetotransmissionlinerights-of-wayhavebeendocumentedinsomecases(U.S.Dept.ofEnergy,1983),butwithoutmorespecificinformationaboutthelocationoftheright-of-way,thesecannotnowbequantified.Oncelandvalueanddevelopmentissuesareresolved,noadditionalsocioeconomicimpactsareexpectedaftertransmissionfacilitiesarecompleted.N.2.1.5AlternativeBorrowSitesNosocioeconomicimpactswouldoccuratanyofthealternativeborrowsites,astheyarefarfrompopulationcentersandresidences.Temporaryincreasesatallsitesinnoise,fugitivedust,heavy-dutyvehicletrafficwouldreducetheuseoftheareaforsuchactivitiesascom-mercialandrecreationalhuntingandtrapping.N.2.2SusitnaDevelopmentAlternativesN.2.2.1AlternativeDamLocationsandDesignsThreealternativehydropowerplantshavebeenproposedfortheSusitnaBasin,eachincludingtheconstructionandoperationoftwolargehydropowerfacilities.Becausethefacilitiesundereachalternativewouldbelocatedinthesamesocioeconomicenvironmentastheproposedprojectwouldbe,theimpactareawouldbethesame.ThealternativeseachcombinetwofacilitieswhichareslightlysmallerthantheproposedWatanaandDevilCanyondams.Theconstructionworkforceswouldbesmallerandtheconstructionperiodshorter.Thelevelofsocioeconomicimpactsofaprojectis,ingeneral,proportionaltothesizeofthepeakconstructionworkforceandthedurationoftheconstructionperiod.Thus,impactsofthealternativeswouldbeslightlylowerthan,ofthesamekind,andlocatedinthesameareasandcommunitiesasimpactsoftheproposedproject,describedinSectionN.2.1.Inthecaseoftwoofthealternativein-basinprojects(WatanaI-DevilCanyonandWatana1-ModifiedHighDevilCanyon)thescaleoftheprojectswouldbeparticularlyclosetothatoftheproposedproject.Forthepurposesofthisdiscussion,itisassumedthat10%fewerconstructionworkerswouldberequiredeachyear,andthattheconstructionperiodwouldbeshortenedby10%.Forthethirdalternative(WatanaI-Reregulatingdam),theWatanaIportionisassumedtobe10%lowerinworkforceandtimeperiodthantheproposedWatanaDam.TheReregulatingdamwouldbeofmuchsmallerscalethantheproposedDevilCanyon.Theworkforceandtimeperiodonthisdamisassumedtobe25%lessthanthatoftheproposedDevilCanyon.Further,itisassumedforallthreealternativesthatconstructionofWatanaIwouldbenearlycompletedbeforesub-stantialworkonthesecondfacilitybegan,asisthephasingoftheproposedproject.ImpactsoftheproposedprojectaredescribedindetailinSectionN.2.1.Allthegeneraldiscussionofimpactsinthatsectionwouldapplyhere:boom-and-bustphenomena,rapidpopula-tiongrowth,difficultiesinfinancingandprovidingadequateservicesintimeforthegrowth,changesinthequalityoflife,andsoon.Thesamecommunities,cities,andboroughswouldexperienceprojectimpactsundereachofthethreein-basinalternatives. N-64A10%reductioninworkforcewouldnotsignificantlyreduceimpacts,especiallyinthesmallcommunities,e.g.,Talkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwell.AsshowninTableN-16,a10%reduc-tioninpopulationgrowthbythepeakyearof1990wouldstillleaveprojectionsofsubstantialgrowth:in1990,byabout40%,175%,and800%forTalkeetna,TrapperCreek,andCantwell,respectively.A10%reductionin1999,theDevilCanyonDamconstructionpeak,wouldvarybyprojectionsource.InthecaseofMat-SuBoroughprojections,project-inducedpopulationgrowthwoulddropfrom300%abovebaselinetoabout270%abovebaseline.Growthofthisscale,althoughslightlyreducedfromthoseoftheproposedproject,wouldresultinnearlycomparableimpactstoallcommunitiesandboroughsintheprojectarea.AsdiscussedinSectionN.2.1.2,communitieswhichpreparedforandexperiencedrapidgrowthduringthefirstconstructionperiodfortheWatanastructures,wouldprobablyhavefewerproblemsduringthesecondgrowthperiodassociatedwithDevilCanyonconstruction.Becausethegrowthcanbeplannedforoveralongerperiod,becausetaxrevenueshaveaccruedfromthefirstboom,andbecausetheareahasgainedexperience,communitieswouldhavemoreresourcestouseinresponse.However,thesamecaveatraisedinevaluatingimpactsoftheproposedprojectholdstruehere:overbuildingduringthefirstboommayhelptoaccommodatethesecond,butwouldmeancostlymaintenanceofunusedfacilitiesduringthedeclinebetweenboomsandafterconstruc-tioniscompleted.ThisisaproblemwhichwouldbegreaterinthealternativeofWatanaIplustheReregulatingdam,wherethesecondphaseisconsiderablysmallerinscalethanthefirst.Thiscouldbeavoidedbycarefulcommunityplanning.Comparingthethreealternativesandtheproposedprojectbylevelofsocioeconomicimpactsresultsintheconclusionthatforthefirstphase(WatanaorWatanaI),impactsarecomparable.Forthesecondphase,impactsintheWatanaIplusReregulatingdamalternativewouldbelessthanforallothersecondphases,providingoverbuildingdoesnotoccurduringthefirstphase.N.2.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutesAswiththeproposedaccessroute,bothalternativerouteswouldincreaseaccessibilityoftheprojectsiteareafortouristsandrecreationalandcommercialhunting,fishing,andtrapping.NativeAlaskanscoulddevelopcommercialoperationsontheirlandintheprojectareamoreeasilythanpresentlyusingeitherthealternativeortheproposedaccessroutes.Otherresidentswouldviewincreasedaccessibilityasreducingtherural,isolatednatureoftheareathattheyvalue.Differencesinimpactsbyroutearediscussedbelow.N.2.2.2.1Plan13"North"ThisroutewouldcausegrowthinHurricane,thetinyunincorporatedcommunitywheretheaccessroutewouldintersectwiththeParksHighway.ConstructionworkersmightchoosetoresideinHurricane,becauseoftheeasycommutetothedamsites.NopopulationfiguresorprojectionsareavailablespecificallyforHurricane.Evenafewnewhouseholdsinthecommunitywouldchangethenatureofthesettingandinvitecommercialandresidentialdevelopment.Servicefacilitieswouldhavetobebuilttoaccommodatenewresidents,fundedbytheborough.N.2.2.2.2Plan16"South"ThisaccessroutewouldbeginattherailheadinGoldCreek.GoldCreekcouldbecomeattractivetoconstructionworkersandtocommercialandresidentialdevelopersastheconstructionpopula-tiongrew~ImpactstoGoldCreekwouldthusbeincreasedlevelsofthosedescribedinSec-tionN.2.1.3.N.2.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutesImpactsofthealternativeswouldbethesameasthosedescribedinSection1.2.1.4.Alterna-tiveswhoseright-of-wayspassednearthemoredenselypopulatedareasofMat-SuBoroughnorthofAnchoragecouldparticularlyaffectpropertyvalues,qualityoflife,andpropertytaxrevenuesinthoseareas,asdescribedinSectionN.2.1.4.N.2.2.4AlternativeBorrowSitesAllalternativeborrowsitesarelocatedinunpopulatedareas.Therefore,nosocioeconomicimpactswouldoccurasaresultofanyofthem.N.2.3Non-SusitnaGenerationAlternativesAnumberofassumptionsareusedinthefollowingsectionstoassessimpacts.Toestimatepopulationgrowth,one-halftheconstructionworkforceandone-quarteroftheoperationswork-forceareassumedtobeunaccompaniedbyhouseho1dmembers.Constructionworkersnotincon-structioncampsareassumedtohavehouseholdsizesof3.0persons;approximatelytheaveragehouseholdsizeofthenation(2.8persons)andtheprojecta~ea(3.06to3.84persons)in1980(seeTableN-17).Supportworkersareassumedtobeneededataratioof0.8supportworkers N-65perconstructionworker,themultiplierestimatedbytheApplicantforMat-SuBoroughprojections(FrankOrth&Associates,1983:p.56).Mat-SuBoroughencompassesruralandsuburbanareas,andthusisrepresentativeofmostoftheimpactareasofthealternatives.Householdsizeofthetotalpopulationisassumed,forsimplicity,alsotobe3.0persons,slightlyhigherthanthenationalaveragein1980.Estimatesofconstructionandoperationworkforcesaretakenfromsourcesrelyingonindustry,ortheexperiencesofStateofAlaskaorU.S.DepartmentofEnergyagencies,aspreciseplansforconstructionandoperationofthealternativefacilitiesarenotavailable.N.2.3.1Natural-Gas-FiredGenerationScenariosN.2.3.1.1TyonekAreaThreeofthecombined-cycleunitswouldbelocatedonthelowerBelugaRiverandtwoontheChuitnaRiver.ThenearestcommunitytobothoftheselocationsisTyonek.Ingeneral,con-structionofoneoftheseunitsrequiresasmallworkforceofabout45personsoveraperiodoftwotofiveyears(BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,1982:p.5.19).Operationwouldrequireabout6personsperunit.ThescheduleforcompletionoftheunitscouldbestaggeredsuchthatthemostthatwouldbebuiltconcurrentlyintheTyonekareaatanyonetimeistwo.Thiswouldmeanatotalmaximumconstructionworkforceof90persons.Ifthetwowerebuiltafterthreeotherswerealreadyon-line,atotaloperationsworkforceof18wouldbeaddedtothe90,makingatotalof108newworkersinthearea.Tyonekisanextremelysmallandstabletownofonly239personsin1980(seeSec.N.1.3.1.2).Aninmigratingworkforceof45ormoreforconstructionofoneunitto100ormorefortwowouldgreatlyenlargethetown.Ifonlyhalfoftheseworkersbroughttheirfamilies,thepopulationincrementwouldrangebetween88and200(22to50singleworkers,plus22to50workerswithhouseholdsof3persons).Novacanthousingisavailable,withtheexceptionof24roomsintheShirleyvilleLodge(Sec.N.1.3.1.2).Thus,housingwouldhavetobebuiltorlotsfortrai1ersdeveloped.Theschoolbuildingwouldhaveenoughcapacityformanyinmigratingchildren,asitisusedatlessthanhalf-capacitynow.However,anotherteachermaybeneeded,aspotentiallyabout20to40school-agechildrenmayaccompanytheworkforce(22%of88-200inmigrants~-seeSec.N.2.1.1.7,Education).AsTyonekisanunincorporatedcommunityintheWesternPeninsulaoftheKenaiPeninsulaBorough,theboroughwouldbeartheplanningandfundingresponsibilitiesforexpandedservices.IfTyonekincorporates,asisbeingconsidered,itscitizenswouldbearthecosts.Ineitherpossibility,fundingpriortotheneedwouldbedifficulttoacquire.TyonekisaNativeAlaskancommunitywhoseresidentsrelyagreatdealonsubsistenceactivitiesfortheirlivelihood.Becausetheresidentsareveryyounganduntrainedinconstruction(Sec.N.1.3.1.2),fewofthemwouldbeemployedontheconstructionprojects.Inmigrantswouldthusearnthehighsalariesofconstructionwork.IfcommercialinterestsweredevelopedinTyonekinresponsetotheexpandedpopulation,theseinterestswouldprofitasworkersspenttheirwages.However,thisbeneficialimpactwouldbeoutweighedbythenegativeonesofcon-flictsbetweentheculturesoftheNativesandofconstructionworkers,andbypotentialinter-ferenceofthenewpopulationwithtraditionalsubsistenceactivities.LowincomesandheavyrelianceonpublicaidprogramsonthepartoftheTyonekNativeswouldcontrastsharplywiththeincomeoftheconstructionworkers.IncreaseduseofsubsistencefishandwildliferesourcesbynewcomerscouldreducethesuppliesavailabletotheNatives.Roadswouldhavetobebuilttothesitesofthecombined-cycleunits,furtherincreasingaccesstothearea.BetterroadconnectionswithAnchoragewouldbebeneficial,butincreasedaccesswouldallowmorenon-Nativestocometothearea.Aconstructioncamptohouseworkersnearthesitewouldreducetheseimpactsconsiderably.Thisstrategyhasbeenusedforwork-forcesnearTyonekonagas-firedgenerationfacility(CookInletRegion,etal.,1981:pp.10-1-10-2).However,problemsofincreasedaccessibilitywouldremain,aswouldconflictsbetweenworkerandNativecultures.Currently,theTyonekNativeCorporationwillnotalloweasements,rights-of-way,roads,orraillinestobebuiltontheirland.Permissiontobuildsomeaccessroadsmaybedifficulttoobtain(CookInletRegionetal.,1981:p.10-13).N.2.3.1.2KenaiAreaThetwocombined-cycleunitspropose:dfortheareawouldb'ewithincommutingdistanceofKenaiandSoldotna.ThesecommunitiesaremoresubstantialthanTyonek,butstillnotlarge(Sec.N.1.3.1.1).Thetwounitscouldbebuiltinsuccessionratherthanconcurrently,soamaximumofapproximately100inmigrantsmightbeexpectedatonetime(45constructionworkers,halfwithhouseholdsof3persons,plus6operationsworkers).Additionally,someKenairesi-dentscouldprobablybehired,reducingthisnumberslightly. N-66Inmigrationof100personstotheKenaiareawouldrepresentapproximatelya2%increaseoverthe1982population.Theareaaccommodatedincreasesofover25%inthepreviousfouryears.Thus,onlyveryminornegativeimpactsfromthetwocombined-cycleunitswouldbeexpected.Sufficienthousingandserviceswouldbeavailable.ImpactswouldbemainlyintheformofincreasedaccesstotheareanorthofKenaiandslightdisruptionoftherurallifestyleofthosewholivenearby.N.2.3.1.3AnchorageAreaOnecombined-cycleunitandtwo70-MWcombustionturbineswouldbebuiltnearAnchorage.Theworkforceneededforconstructionofacombustionturbinewouldbeapproximately30persons;theoperationsworkforce12.Itislikelythatmostworkersonthecombined-cycleandcom-bustionunitswouldbehiredinAnchorageandwouldcommutetothesites.Thus,impactswouldbeminorandlimitedtoslightincreasesinroadtrafficandincreasedaccesstothesiteareas.N.2.3.2Coal-FiredGenerationScenarioN.2.3.2.1HealyAreaItisassumedthatallthecoalforthecoal-firedgenerationscenariowouldbeminedfromtheUsibelliMineacrosstheNenanaRiverfromHealy.Theminecurrentlyproducesabout700,000tons(630,000MT)ofcoalperyear,mostofwhichisshippedtoFairbanksandsometoSouthKorea(UsibelliCoalMine,undated;ArgonneNationalLaboratory,1982).Tosupplythefuelforthefive200-MWcoal-burningpowerunitsproposedinthisscenarioandmaintainsuppliestoexistingmarkets,annualproductionwouldhavetoincreasebyover5times,toabout3.8mi11ion(3.4millionMT)tonsperyear.Estimatesoftheworkforcenecessarytominethisamountofcoalvary.TheUsibelliMinenowemploysabout90personsinthesummerand70inthewinter(UsibelliCoalMine,undated).Aquintuplingofproductioncouldimplyaquintuplingoftheworkforce,to350inwinterand450insummer.However,agenericestimateofworkersneededinaWesternsurfacecoalmineisabout400workersper6milliontons(5.6millionMT)ofcoalminedinayear,orabout250workersper3.8milliontons(3.4millionMT).Aconservativeestimatebetweenthesetwofiguresisappropriate,thatis,atotalof300workerswouldbeneededtomeetthenewproduc-tionlevels.Thiswouldmeanabout210newworkers,abovethecurrentsummeremploymentof90workers.Asminingoperationswouldrequireapermanentworkforce,mostofthese210workerswouldprobablysettleinthearea,addingatotalofabout600people(assumingthree-personhouseholds)totheexistingpopulation.Additionally,upto170supportworkerswouldbeneeded(0.8x210),whowouldalsobepermanentresidentsaccompaniedbyhouseholdmembers.Withhouseholdsizeofthreepersons,thetotalsupport-relatedinmigrantswouldbeabout500persons.Addedtothemineworkforce,populationintheHealyareacouldbeincreasedby1,100people.CurrentpopulationinHealyisonly334persons,manyofwhomareNativeAlaskans(Sec.N.1.1).Anadditional100resideacrosstheNenanaRiver,nearertheminesite.Aninfluxof1,100personswouldcreateseveredifficultiesforthecommunity,inplanningfor,financing,andservinggrowthofthisscale,evenifitcouldbestretchedoveraperiodofadecade.Culturaldiffi-cultiesbetweenNativeresidentsandnon-Nativeinmigrants,interferencewithsubsistenceactivi-ties,anddramaticchangesinlifestyleforcurrentresidentsaccustomedtothesmall-townsettingwouldoccur.Economicopportunitiesmayexpand,butthesewouldbeofbenefittonewdevelopersandinmigratingsupportworkersandtheirhouseholds,ratherthantocurrentresidentswhocouldnotadequatelyprovidetheservicesandskills.Highunemploymentratesmaybereduced,buttheyouthfulandinexperiencedresidentworkforceoftenfoundinruralAlaska(ArgonneNationalLaboratory,1982:p.81)mayleademployerstorecruitexperiencedworkersfromelsewhere.Toaccommodatethenewpopulation,manyserviceswouldberequired:newandperhapscentralizedwaterandsewerservices;schoolsforasmanyas240school-agedchildren;andfire,police,andhealthfacilitiesforfourtimescurrentcapacity.Newandupgradedlocalroadsbetweencommuni-tiesandtheminesitewouldalsobenecessary.WiththeexpandedHealypopulation[andexpandedNenanapopulationfromthetwocoal-firedpowerunitsalsointhisscenario(Sec.N.2.3.2.3)],thetownandtheYukon-KoyukukBoroughmaychoosetoincorporateandthusgainpowerstotaxandplanforservices.Untilthisoccurred,thestatewouldberesponsibleforplanning,financing,andadministeringthenewservices.Untilafewyearsago,housingforalmostallthemineworkerswasprovidedbythecompany.Recently,thecompanydevelopedasubdivisionnearthesitewhereworkerscanbuildtheirownhouses(ArgonneNationalLaboratory,1982:p.81).Thissubdivisionwouldhavetobeexpandedconsiderably-perhapstothescaleofanewindependentcommunity,inadditiontodevelopmentofnewsingle-familyhousingdevelopmentinHealy. N-67N.2.3.2.2CoalTransportationRoutesCurrently,coalisshippedfromtheUsibelliMinesitetoFairbanksbyrailon75-toncars(UsibelliCoalMine,undated).Monthlyshipmentsrangebetweenabout26,000tons(23,400MT)insummertoabout82,000tons(73,800MT)inwinter(ArgonneNationalLaboratory,1982:p.83).Thus,about350carsor3.5unittrains(of100cars)permonth(26,000tons'"75tons/car)areneededinthesummer,andabout1,100carspermonthorabout5unittrainseverytwoweeks(82,000tons'"75tons/car)inwinter(onetraineverythreedays).Theaveragefortheyearwouldbeabout1.8trainsperweek[(700,000tons/year'"75tons/car).,.100cars'"52weeks].Three-fifthsoftheadditional3.1milliontons(2.8millionMT)ofannualcoalproduction,orapproximately2.3million(2.1millionMT)tor.speryearwouldbeshippedtothree200-MWcoalunitsinNenana.Thiswouldrequireanaverageofaboutoneunittrainperday.AddedtocurrentdemandinFairbanksandassuming75-toncars,anaverageofaboutnineunittrains(18trips)everyweek(1.8trains/weekcurrently+7trains/weekadditional)wouldberequired.Ingeneral,coalistransportedin100-toncarson100-carunittrains.TheAlaskaRailroadcancarryweightsof100-toncars(NationalRailwayPublicationCo.,1983:p.9).Ifitisassumedthatthisisthemostefficientandeconomicaltransportoption,thiswouldreducethenumberofunittrainsneededbyaquarter,toaboutthreetrains(sixtrips)everyfourdays.Abouttwiceasmanytrainswouldbeneededinthewinterthaninthesummer,butbecauseofthegreatlyincreasedaveragenumberoftrainsneededtoFairbanks,thethreetoonedifferencemaybereduced.Thisrepresentsanincreaseofaboutthreetimescurrentvolume.AnunknownamountofcoaliscurrentlyshippedsouthfromtheUsibelliMineforexporttoSouthKorea.Underthecoal-firedgenerationscenario,usingunittrainsof10075-toncarswouldrequireaboutseventrains(14trips)everytwoweekstoWillow.Using100100-toncarswouldreducethisnumbertoaboutfivetrains(tentrips)everyweekabovecurrentvolume.Currently,theAlaskaRailroadisonlyusedat20%offreightcapacity(Sec,N.1.1.8.2).Amaximumaverageincrementofabout14tripsperweekbetweenthemineandNenana(higherinwinterandlowerinsummer)maynotstrainthecurrentrailline.However,thisincrementrepresentsvolumeduetotransportingcoalonly.Othertripswouldbeneededforequipmentforminingandforoperationofthepowerplants.Additionally,greatlyexpandedpopulationsinHealyandNenanawoul~increasetheneedforotherrail-deliveredcommoditiesinthesecommuni-ties,andmayincreasedemandforpassengerservice.Maintenanceoftheline,particularlyinwinter,wouldberequiredfarmorefrequently.Becauseofunpredictablew~atherconditionsinwinter,andthusunreliabilityofdeliveries,equipmentandsuppliesforrepairsattheUsibelliMinemustnowbestockpiledinheatedstorageareas(ArgonneNationalLaboratory,1982).Thisprecautionaryeffortwouldhavetobeexpandedatincreasedcost,possiblycausingslightlyincreaseduseoftherailsduringquietwinterweather.N.2.3.2.3NenanaAreaThree200-MWcoal-firedunitswouldbelocatedinNenanaunderthisalternativepowergenerationscenario.Eachunitwouldrequireabout600workerstwotofiveyearstoconstruct.Becauseworkmaybepossibleonlysixmonthsoftheyear,thelongertimeframemaybemorelikely.Aworkforceofabout100personswouldbeneededtooperatethecompletedplant(BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,1982).Iftheplantswerebuiltinsuccession,apeakworkforceof600wouldbeneededforconstructionofthefirstplant,followedbyadropto100foritsoperation.Atpeakconstructionofthesecondplant,theworkforcerequiredwouldbeabout700persons,includingthepermanentoperationsworkforceonthefirstplant.Duringconstructionofthethirdplant,thepeakworkforcewouldreach800persons,anddropbackto300operationsworkersforallthreeplants.ItispossiblethatmanyconstructionworkerswouldcommutefromresidencesinFairbanks,about50miles(80km)away.TheoperationsworkforcewouldbemorelikelytoestablishpermanentresidencesinornearNenana.Intheworstcase,allconstructionworkerswouldchoosetoliveinNenanaforthetwotofiveyearsneededtocompleteeachoftheplants.Ifonlyone-halftheconstructionworkersandallsupportworkers(0.8xpeakconstructionworkforce)wereaccom-paniedbyhouseholdmembers,populationinmigrationcouldreachonepeakofabout2,600,dropofftoaslowasabout500,thenincreasetoapeakofabout3,100(2,600+500)forthesecondplantanddropbacktoalevelofabout1,000.Peakconstructionofthethirdplantcombinedwithoperations-workforce-inducedpopulationforthefirsttwocouldleadtototalinmigrationof3,600persons.Whenallthreeplantswereinoperation,thetotalnewpermanentpopulationcouldbe1,500persons.Thelowpoints(500,1,000,and1,500persons)representthepermanentoperationsworkforceof100foreachplantandtheirhouseholds[three-quarters(75)inhouse-holdsofthreepersons,one-quartersingleworkers]plusasupportworkforce(0.8x100opera-tionsworkers=80supportworkers),allinhouseholdsofthreepersons.Itis1ikelythatanticipationofemploymentinconstructionofthesecondplantwouldcausesomeconstructionworkerstoremainintheareathroughthisperiod;ifso,thisnumberwouldbehigher.Thenumberleft(1,500)representspermanentresidentsrelatedtobothoperationworkforces. N-68ThepopulationofNenanaiscurrentlyonlyslightlylessthan500persons:Apopulati?ninfluxofabout2,600per~onsintheworstcaseoveronlyt~oorthreeyearsdurlngconstructlon~fthefirstplantwouldcausesevereimpactstothecommunlty.Evenl.fallunemployedlocalresldentswereemployedontheproject,theywouldfillonlyasma)lportlonoft~e60~workersnecessaryforplantconstruction.Inthecasethatmostconstru~tlonworkersresldedIn.andcommuted.fromFairbanks,populationincreasesrelatedtotheoperatlonsworkforcewouldstlllalmosttrlplethesizeofthetown.Althoughunemploymentmaybereduced,thecommunitywouldexperiencesevereshortfallsinhousingandcommunityandi:ommercia1services,whetherundertheworstcaseorthembremoderateone.Existingwaterandsewerserviceswouldhavetobeexpandeddramatically,andinadvanceofresidentialandcommercialconstruction.Fire,police,andhealthservices,nowprovidedatasmallscalebyafewprofessionalsandvolunteers,wouldhavetohirefull-timepaidstaffandacquiremoreequipment.Theclassicplanningandfinancingproblemsencounteredbyaruralareainpreparingforaboomfollowedbyabust,discussedinSectionN.2.1,wouldoccurinNenana.CulturaldifferencesbetweenNativeAlaskans,whopresentlycompriseasubstantialproportionofthecommunity'spopulation,andotherresidentswouldbemagnified.NativeAlaskanculturalandsubsistenceactivitiesinNenanawouldbeoverwhelmedbynon-Nativeactivities.UntilNenanaand/ortheYukon-KoyukukBoroughincorporated,thestatewouldberesponsibleforthecostsofplanningandconstructingnewservices.MostoftheconstructionworkersdrawnfromFairbankswouldbepartoftheexistingworkforce.Sometemporaryinmigrationmayoccur,butitwouldbeofsuchasmallscalerelativetothesizeofthecitythatimpactswouldbeinsignificant.N.2.3.2.4WillowAreaConstructionofthreecoal-firedunitsintheWillowarea,beginningintheyear2000andtobecompletedby2020,couldhavesubstantialimpacts,althoughnotassevereasthoseinNenana.Willowitselfisaverysmallcommunity(1981populationofonly139persons),butlargercom-munities,suchasHouston,Wasilla,andPalmer,aswellasunincorporatedresidentialdevelop-ments(suchasBigLake),are locatedwithinreasonablecommutingdistance.Thecombinedpopula-tionoftheseareasin1981wasabout6,000persons(TableN-1).Someconstructionworkerscouldbedrawnfromtheexistingworkforceinthisarea.However,inmigrationinlargenumbersmaystillbepossible.Ifitisassumedthathalftheconstructionworkforceandalltheoperationsworkforcemovedtothearea,andthattheplantswerebuiltinsuccession,peakpopulationincreasewouldbeabout2,600personsforthefirstplant(Sec.N.2.3.2.3),and3,100forthesecond(2,600construction+500operation).Population intheWillowareaisexpectedtogrowmorerapidlybeforetheyear2000thaninotherareasoftheMat-SuBorough.However,anincrementofthismanypersonsontopofbaselinegrowthwouldonlyexacerbateplanning,financing,andconstructionproblems.CulturalconflictswouldbemilderthanforNenana,asthesecommunitieshaveasmallproportionofNativeAlaskansandlittlesubsistenceactivity.IfalargeproportionoftheinmigrantschosetoresideinWillow,boom-and-bustimpactswouldbesimilartothosedescribedinSectionsN.2.1andN.2.3.2.3.NopopulationprojectionsforWillowareavailable,butitisassumedthatthecommunitywouldremainsmallto2000,theyearconstructionwouldbegin.Apopulationinfluxintotheareaofbetween2,600and3,100residentswouldrequiresubstantialdevelopmentofservicesinWillow,andadditionstothoseintheotherthreecommunities.Toaccommodateone-halfoftheinflux,Willowwouldneedaschool,policeandfirestationsandstaff,healthcarefacilities(althoughspecialtycarecouldbeprovidedattheexistinghospitalinPalmer),improvedroads,andbetween800and1,000housingunitstomeetdemandsduringpeakconstructionperiods.Oncethepeakinconstructionofthefirstunitwasreachedandaccommodated,planningandadjustingtolatergrowthwouldbeeasier.Operationsworkforcesforthethreeunitswouldlikelybepermanentresidents,eventuallyusinganyexcesscapacityofhousingandservicesprovidedtomeetpeakdemand.Householdsofoperationsworkforcesandsupporthouseholdswouldnumberabout1,000whenallunitswereinoperation.AlargeproportionofthesepeoplewouldsettlepermanentlyinorverynearWillow.Withsuchsubstantialpopulationgrowthoveraperiodofabout15years,itislikelythatWi11owwouldbecomeanincorporatedcommunity,andthusacquirepowertoplan,collecttaxes,andprovideitsowhservices.Untilincorporationoccurs,Mat-SuBoroughwouldberesponsiblefortheseactivities.'ExtrataxrevenuewouldbeavailabletotheBoroughfromthisgrowth,butonlyafterconstructiontoprepareforthegrowthhadtakenplace.Thus,fortheperiodofthislag,Mat-SuBoroughmayhavefinancialdifficultiesinadapting.PalmerandWasillaareconsiderablylargerthanWillowandareprojectedtogrowfairlyrapid'lybytheyear2000whenconstructiononthesecoal-firedunitswouldbegin.Houston,thenearestcommunitytoWillow,had600residentsin1981,overfourtimesWillow'spopulation,butasmallcommunity.Allthreecommunitiesareincorporatedpresently.Allwouldhavetoexpandtheirservicefacilities,particularlyHouston,toaccommodatetheproportionsofconstructionand N-69operationworkforcesthatchosetosettlewithintheirboundaries.However,thescaleofgrowthimpactswouldbelessthanthoseinWillow.N.2.3.2.5CookInletAreaTen70-MWcombustionturbineswouldbeconstructedaroundCookInletaspartofthecoal-firedgenerationscenario.ThesewouldprobablybelocatedintheTyonekarea,northofKenai,andnearAnchorage.BecauseofthegreateraccesstonaturalgasnearTyonek,alargerproportionoftheunitswouldbelocatedintheTyonekarea.Aconstructionworkforceof30personsforninemonths,possiblyspreadovertwosummers,andanoperationsworkforceof12personswouldbeneededforeachunit.AccommodationsofworkforcesforeventwoorthreeunitsbuiltinsuccessionwouldbeminimalintheAnchorageandKenaiareas.Thenewpopulationscouldbedrawnfromoreasilyincorporatedintoexistingfacilitiesandgrowthprojections.AsdescribedinSectionsN.landN.2.3.1.1,theTyonekareahasonlyonecommunity,Tyonek,whichiscomprisedalmostcompletelyofNativeAlaskans.Littlehousingisavailable.Fortheshortconstructionperiod,itislikelythataconstructioncampcouldbebuilttohouseworkers,limitingimpactstothoseofworkersusingTyonek'slimitedcommercialoperations.Currently,localcommercialoperationshaveonsitehousingforworkerstoreduceimpactsonTyonek(CookInletRegionetal.,1981).Operationsworkforcesfortwotofourunitswouldtotalbetween24and48.Iftheseworkerschosetoresidepermanentlyneartheplant,populationinmigrationcouldrangebetween75and150(basedonaveragehouseholdsizeofthreepersons).ImpactstoTyonekwouldbethesameasthoseexperiencedunderthegas-firedgenerationscenarioanddescribedinSectionN.2.3.1.1,althoughonaslightlyreducedscale.N.2.3.3CombinedHydro-ThermalGenerationScenarioThehydropowerfacilitiesproposedforthisscenariorangeinproductioncapacitybetween65and370MW.Genericestimatesofworkforceneedsareoftengivenrelativetopeakpowerproductioncapacity.However,thenumberofworkersneededtoconstructafacilityvariesconsiderably,dependingonthesizeofthedamandthereservoir,thedifficultyofthedesign,theconfigura-tion·oftherivervalley,accessibilityofthesite,andotherfactors.Additionalworkersmayberequiredtorebuildstructuresdisplacedbythedamorreservoir,suchashighways,raillines,ortransmissionlines.Thus,itisdifficulttoprojectthesizeoftheconstructionworkforcebasedonpeakproduction.Forexample,ithasbeenestimatedthatbetween200and400personswouldbeneededfor5to10yearstoconstructa100-MWdam.Thesamesourcegivesanestimateof250to1,000personstoconstructplantsof100to1,000MW(BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,1982:p.5.38).Yetanothersourceestimates255workersforconstruc-tionofa200MWplant(U.S.Dept.ofEnergy,1980:p.215).Inthisdiscussion,itwillbeassumedthataminimumof200workersandfouryearsareneededtoconstructahydroelectricplantevenofasmallcommercialscale.Largerconstructionworkforceswillbeassumedforthetwolargerdamsinthescenario,JohnsonandChakachamna.Theoperationsworkforcewillbeassumedtobe10personsforthesmallerplants(U.S.Dept.ofEnergy,1980,p.215;BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,1982:p.5.38),largerforJohnsonandChakachamna.N.2.3.3.1JohnsonTheJohnsonhydropowerfacilitywouldbethefirsttobebuiltunderthisscenario,withaprojectedonlinedateof1993.Itspeakcapacitywouldbeabout200MW.Theconstructionworkforceforthisfacilityisassumedtobe300workers;theoperationsworkforce,25workers.Constructionisassumedtorequiresevenyears.Intheextremecasethatnoconstructioncamporonsitehousingwasprovided,thesparselypopulatedareabetweenTokandDeltaJunction,describedinSectionN.l.3.3.2,wouldexperiencesevereimpactsduringconstruction.ThemostseriousimpactwouldbethepossibilitythattheNativeAmericancommunityofDotLakewouldbeinundatedbytheJohnsonimpoundment.Thiswoulddisplaceatleast67people(1980Census),theirhomesandlivelihood,andtheculturalcommunityestablishedherebyNativeAlaskans.Alodgenearerthesitemightalsobeinundated.Apopulationinflux'ofasmanyas1,300persons'duringthepeakperiod[150singleworkers,150withthree-personhouseholds,plus240(0.8x300)supportworkerswiththree-personhouseholds]wouldalmostdoublethecurrentpopulationofthearea[750inTok,117inTanacross,67inDotLak~,and1,044inDeltaJunction(Sec.N.l.3.3.2)].MostconstructionworkerswouldprobablyberecruitedthroughunionhallsinFairbanksandAnchorage,althoughsomesupportjobsmaybefilledbylocalresjdents.Asmanyas400newhouseholdswouldrequiretemporaryorpermanenthousing.Becauseconstructionworkerstendtosettleinestablishedpopulationcenters,itis N-70likelythatTokandDeltaJunctionwouldbefacedwiththemajorityoftheinmigrants.Communityserviceswouldhavetobeexpandedconsiderably,at~hecostofth~stat~forTok,andthecommunityforDeltaJunction.Boomtownimpactsdescrlbedgenerally1nSectlonN.1.1wouldoccurinbothcommunities.Withincreasedserviceneedsexistingcommercia1operationsmightbeexpandedandnewonesopened.Expandedoperations'mayencouragemoretou.riststospendtimeinthe?rea,espec~allyifrecreationalfacilitiesweredevelopedatthelmpoundment,furtherenhanc1ngcommerclalgrowth.However,thesebenefitsmaybeoffsetbythedecreaseintherural,undevelopednatureoftheareaandthechangeinthequalityofthesettingforcurrentresidents.Ifconstructioncampsoronsitehousingwereprovidedfortheconstructionperiod,allowingworkerstomaintainpermanentresidenceselsewhere[e.g.,140mi(230km)awayinFairbanks],impactswouldbefarlesssevere.However,commercialoperationsinthenearbycommunitieswouldstillexperiencegreaterdemandfromworkersatthecamps.TheNativeAlaskancommunitiesofTanacrossandDotLakemayexperienceculturalconflictswiththeinmigrants.Subsistenceactivitiesmaybeinterferedwith,asaresultofincreasedcompetitionforfishandgame.Theoperationsworkforcewouldbepermanentresidentsnearthesite.The25workerswithaveragehouseholdsizesof3persons,ifdispersedoverthearea,wouldbearelativelyminorincreaseinthelocalpopulation.Ifmanychosetoestablishanewcommunityverynearthesite,impactswouldbelimitedtoincreasedbusinessatexistingcommercialoperations.TheimpoundmentcreatedbytheJohnsondamwouldinundateportionsoftheAlaskaHighwayandapipeline.Itisassumedthatconstructionofanewsegmentofthehighwayandthepipelinearoundtheimpoundmentwouldoccurconcurrentlywithplantconstruction,soasnottointerferewithuseofthiswell-usedroadtothestateandtheflowofgasinthepipeline.IftheStateofAlaskahadtobeartotallyorpartiallythecostofthisconstruction,thiscouldbeasub-stantialadditiontoexpenditures.Thestateiscurrentlysufferingfinancialdifficulties,andtheseareprojectedtocontinueifgaspricesremainlow(Sec.N.l.1).Additionally,theseprojectswouldexpandtheworkforceassociatedwithconstructionofJohnson,creatinggreater"boom-bust"impactsintheTok-to-DeltaJunctionarea.N.2.3.3.2ChakachamnaChakachamnawouldbethesecondhydroelectricplanttocomeonlineinthisscenario,fiveyearsafterJohnson.Theplantwouldbelocatedinthesparselypopulated,NativeAlaskan,Tyonekarea.At370MW,itwouldbethelargestoftheplantsunderthisscenario.Constructionisassumedtorequireapeakworkforceof400peopleandaperiodoffiveyears,andoperationtorequireaworkforceof50people.Usingthegeneralassumptionsappliedtoallthealterna-tivesofnoconstructioncamp,thisworkforcesizewouldmeanapeakpopulationincrementofabout2,000personswithinthreeyears[200singlesplus(200x3)workerswithhouseholdmembersplus(0.8x400)x 3supportworkerswithhouseholdmembers],droppingbacktoabout250personsfortheoperationperiod.AsdiscussedinSectionsN.l.3.l.2andN.2.3.l.1,Tyonekwouldexperiencesignificantimpactsfrominmigratingpopulationassociatedwithconstructionofevensmallpowerplants.Thecom-munityisstableandsmall,withlittleornovacanthousing,eitherpermanentsingle-familyortemporaryunits.Sewerandwatersystems,fireandpoliceprotectionpersonnel,andlocalmedicalfacilitieswouldhavetobeaddedtoexistingservicesandtheschoolexpandedby50%,atleastfortheperiodofconstruction.ConstructionandplanningoftheserviceswouldbefundedbytheKenaiPeninsulaBorough.NativeAlaskancultureandsUbsistenceactivitieswouldbeinterferedwith,ifnotdominatedby,thelifestyleoftheinmigrants.Commercialoperationswouldalsoexpandanddiversify.IfprojectdeveloperschosetoestablishatemporarycommunitynearthesiteanddistantfromTyonek,impactstoTyonekwouldbereducedtoexpansionofcom-mercialoperationsandinterferencewithNativeAlaskancultureandsubsistenceactivities.Whetherornotanewcommunitywasestablished,increasedaccessandcompetitionforplant,fish,andwildliferesourceswouldreducesuppliesintraditionalsubsistenceareas.CampsforconstructionandpermanentworkforceshavebeenbuiltforotherprojectsandcommercialoperationsintheTyonekarea.Oneofthesehascapacityfor200persons(Bechtel,1983:p.6-111).AconstructioncampfortheChakachamnaprojecthasbeenproposedinafeasibilitystudy(Bechtel,1983)andwouldbealikelyalternativeforaccommodatingtheworkforce,andreducingimpactsonthelocalarea.However,constructionandoperationofacampwouldaddtoprojectexpenses.Thepermanentoperationsworkforceof50personscouldresultininmigrationofupto250persons(12singles+38withthree-personhouseholds+40supportworkersandtheirhouseholds),asubstantialdecreasefromthepeakconstructioninflux.Boom-bustimpactsdiscussedinSec-tionN.2.1wouldbesignificant.Workersthemselvescouldperhapsbehousedinacampnearthesite,androtatedeveryfewmonths.However,thismayraiseturnover,increasingoperationcosts.Ifapermanentcommunitywereestablishednearthesite,disruptionsinTyonekwouldbereduced.However,ifanyoftheworkerschosetoestablishpermanentresidenceinTyonek,they N-71wouldcreateaneedforexpandedservicesandhousingsupplies,andcouldcauseconflictswithNativeAlaskans,ashavebeendocumentedinothercases(Bechtel,1983).TheTyonekNativeCorporationhasapolicyofrefusingeasementsandrights-of-wayontheirland.Thus,permitstoconstructroadstothesitemaybedifficulttoacquire.N.2.3.3.3SnowConstructionandoperationoftheSnowhydropowerplantwouldaffecttheEasternKenaiPeninsulaandtheCityofSeward.Underthewith-Chakachamnascenario,Snowwouldcomeonlinein2003;withoutChakachamna,theonlineyearwouldbe1998.Constructionisassumedtorequire200personsoveraperiodoffouryears,andoperationte~persons.Theseworkforcerequirementswouldresultininmigrationattheconstructionpeakofabout900persons.SomeSewardresidentsmaybehiredtoworkontheproject,possiblycommutingfromtheirresidencesinSeward,andreducingthehighunemployment(Sec.N.1.3.3.1).However,aswithotherprojects,mosthiringwould.probablybedonethroughunionhallsinAnchorage.AlthoughthepopulationinSewardandtheEasternPeninsulaareaincreasedby31%overthe1970's,Seward'spopulationhasremainedfairlystable(Sec.N.1.3.3.1).Ifthistrendcontinues,itspopulationwouldfollowthelow-growthscenarioofKenaiPeninsulaBoroughprojections(Sec.N.1.3.3.1)andincreaseonlyslightlyby1998or2003.Inmigrationof900personswouldbea25%increaseoverthe1982populationoftheEasternPeninsula.Seward,unlikemanyothersmallcommunitiesinAlaska,hasanumberofrentalapartmentunitsthatcouldbeusedbyprojectworkers,providingcommutingtothesitewasfeasible.However,a25%incrementinhousingneedsintheEasternPeninsulaarea,combinedwiththefactthatworkersmaychoosetolivenearerthesite,wouldmeanthatupto300newpermanentortemporaryunitswouldhavetobeprovided.Accompanyinghousingneedswouldbeneedsforsewer,water,andothercommunityservices.SchoolstructuresinSeward.haveaccommodated17%morestudentsthanarenowenrolled.Itislikelytheycouldabsorbthestudentsaccompanyingproject-andsupport-relatedhouseholds.Additionalstaffwouldhavetobehired.TheCityofSewardwouldberesponsibleforplanning,financing,constructing,andmaintainingservices.Ifworkerschosetolivenearthesite,housingandallserviceswouldbeneeded.Ifthepopula-tionweredispersed,individualwellsandseptictanksmaysufficeforwaterandsewerservices,butschools,fireandpoliceprotection,andhealthfacilitieswouldhavetobeadded.ThesewouldbeattheexpenseoftheKenaiPeninsulaBorough.TrafficvolumeontransportationroutesintheEasternPeninsulawouldincreasewithproject-relatedtravelanddeliveries.Thesmalloperationsworkforcenecessarywouldhavenegligibleimpactsonthearea,generatingonlyanestimatedmaximumof10householdsand30persons.N.2.3.3.4BrowneBrowne,likeSnow,wouldbeasmallhydroelectricfacility,withpeakcapacityof100MW.Itwouldbecompletedby2008.Constructionworkforcerequiredisassumedtobe200workersforaperiodoffouryears;operationsworkforce,tenpersons.BecauseBrownewouldbelocatedbetweenHealyandNenana,itsconstructionandoperationsworkforceswouldcreateimpactsprimarilyinthesetowns.Thesiteisabout60to70mi(100-120km)fromFairbanks,adistancewhichisalongdailycommute,butworkerscouldmaintainpermanentresidencesinFairbankstowhichtheycouldcommuteonweekends.Thus,itisassumedinthisdiscussionthat,intheworstcase,only75%oftheconstructionworkforce(150people)wouldinmigratetotheHealy-Nenanaarea.Includinghouseholdmembersandsupportworkers,totalpeakinmigrationcouldreach660persons[75singlesplus75x 3constructionworkersandhouseholdmembersplus(0.8x150)x 3supportworkersandhouseholdmembers].Thisnumberwouldbeabout65%higherthanthe1981populationandabout35%higherthantheprojectedpopulationin2005(TableN-1).Anincreaseofthismagnitudewouldstrainhousingsuppliesandallcommunityservices.Currently,verylittlevacanttemporaryorpermanenthousingexists.Considerabledevelopmentwouldbeneededtoaccommodatetheover300newhouseholdswhichmayinmigrate.CommercialoperationslocallyandinFairbanksmayhaveincreasedbusiness.Schools,waterandsewerfacilities-perhapscentralizedones,policeandfireequipment,·healthcarefacilities,andfull-timepersonneltostafftheserviceswouldhavetobeaddedtothecommunities.Nenana;asanincorporatedtown,wouldberesponsiblefortheplanning,financing,construction,andadministrationoftheseadditionalservices.ThestatewouldberesponsibleforadditionsinHealy.Ineithercase,financingconstructioninanticipationofgrowth,planningsoasnottooverbuild,andavoidingaccruinglargedeficitsbeforeincreasedtaxrevenuesarecollectedwouldbedifficultproblems.HealyandNenanaeachhavepopulationswithlargeproportionsofNativeAlaskans.Manyofthesepeople(andotherresidents)relyontraditionalsubsistenceactivitiesforfoodandasanintegralpartoftheirculture.Increasedpopulationmayinterferewiththeseactivities,reducesubsistenceresources,andcauseculturalconflicts. N-72Ifconstructioncampswerebuilt,impactswouldbereduced..Comme.rcialoperat.ionswouldstillreceivemorebusiness,andsubsistenceactivitieswouldst1llbel~terferedwlth.The~rowneimpoundmentwouldinundateabout10mi(16km)ofboththe~arksH1ghway,theAlaska.Ra1lroadlineandtheIntertieTransmissionLineright-of-way.It1Sassumedthatconstruct10nofnewrout~sforallthreewouldtakeplaceconcurrentlywithconstructionofBrownestructures.Ifthisisthecase,interferencewiththeuseofthethreewouldbekepttoaminimum.However,constructionworkforcesontheseprojectscouldaddsubstantiallytoinmigration,whethertemporaryorpermanent.ThissituationwouldfurthercompoundtheimpactsfromconstructionofBrownealone.TheBrowneconstructionperiodwouldalsobeconcurrentwiththe~onstructionperiodofKeetnainthewith-Chakachamnascenario.Becausethesiteswouldbeabout200mi(320km)apartandinruralareas,populationinmigrationimpactsmaybeincreased.Shortagesofsuppliesmaybeexacerbated;highwaysandtherailroadmayexperiencedifficultiesincarryingcapacitiesnecessaryforbothprojects(andforthenewhighway,rail,andtransmissionlineroutes);andwhateverlocalworkforcecouldbeusedwouldbesplitbetweenthetwoprojects,increasingthelikelihoodofthe"worst-case"inmigrationlevels.N.2.3.3.5KeetnaTheKeetnahydropowerfacilitywouldbeaboutthesamesizeastheproposedSnowfacility,andwouldbecompletedby2008(withChakachamna)or1998(withoutChakachamna).Thenearestcom-munitiestotheproposedsitewouldbeTalkeetnaandTrapperCreek.Constructionworkforceisassumedtobe200workersatpeak;operationworkforce,10workers.-Becausenolargecommuni-tiesarewithincommutingdistance,itisassumedfortheworst-casethatallworkerswouldinmigrateforsomeorallofthefour-yearconstructionperiod.InmigrationtothesmallcommunitiesofTalkeetnaandTrapperCreekcouldbeashighas880people[100singlesplus(100x3)workerswithhouseholdmembersplus(0.8x200)x 3supportworkersandhouseholdmembers].Currently,totalpopulationinthetwocommunitiesisalittlelessthan900persons.Thecommunitiesare_projectedtogrowtoabout1,000personsbytheyear2000(ISERprojections,TableN-1).InmigrationrelatedtotheKeetnaprojectwouldalmostdoublethispopulation(orincreaseitbyover athird,usingtheApplicant'sbaselineprojectionsinTableN-1).ImpactstotheTalkeetna-TrapperCreekareafromsuchlargeinmigrationwouldbesignificant.AlthoughthenumberofinmigrantswouldbeonlyaboutathirdofthosewhowouldcomewiththeproposedSusitnaproject,difficultiesinplanningfor~herapidandhighgrowth,andforfinancingandadministeringnewhousingandserviceswouldbesubstantiallythesame.Boomtownphenomena,asdescribedinSectionN.2.1,wouldchangeresidents'qualityoflifeandtheruralnatureofthearea.Ontheotherhand,increasedaccesswouldprovideopportunitiesforcom-mercialdevelopmentofrecreationalandtouristfacilitiesbyNativeAlaskancorporationsandbyprivateentrepreneurs.ImprovementswouldbeattheexpenseofMat-SuBorough,unlesseithercommunityincorporatedbeforeconstructionbegan.ProblemsrelatedtoconcurrenceoftheKeetnaandBrowneconstructionscheduleswerediscussedintheprevioussectiononBrowne.N.2.4ComparisonofAlternativesAlternativeSusitnaBasinhydropowerdevelopmentswouldhaveconstructionandoperationimpactssimilarandofcomparablemagnitudetothoseoftheproposedproject.Thesitesarelocatedinrelativelysparselypopulatedareaswithonlyafewsmallcommunities.ThecommunitiesofTrapperCreek,Talkeetna,andCantwellwouldbethelocationsaffectedmostbyconstructionandoperationoftheSusitnadevelopmentalternatives.Thesehydropoweralternativesalsowouldhavegreatersocioeconomicimpactsthanthenon-SusitnaBasinalternativesbecausetheformerwouldrequirelargerconstructionworkforcesforlonger-periodsthanwouldtheotheralterna-tives.Thus,boom-and-bustphenomenawouldbegreaterforthecommunitiesneartheproposedsitesoftheSusitnaBasinalternatives.Eachalternativeaccessroutewouldincreaseaccessibilitytoadifferentsectionoftheprojectarea,thusincreasingpossibilitiesforrecreational,tourist,andcommercialusesofthearea.Additionally,thenorthernaccessroutealternativewouldcausegrowthinHurricane,andthesouthernalternativewouldcausegrowthinGoldCreek.Bothsettlementsarecurrentlyverysmallandwouldexperienceboomtowntypesofimpacts.Thus,thealternativeaccessroutesarecomparableintermsofsocioeconomicimpacts.Eachalternativepowertransmissionroutewouldhaveessentiallycomparablesocioeconomicimpacts.Thealternativeborrowsiteswouldhavenegligiblesocioeconomicimpacts.------------------------- N-73Thecoal-firedandnatural-gas-firedgenerationscenarioseachwouldhavesocioeconomicimpactsonthesmallNativecommunityofTyonek.Eachofthesealternativefacilitieswouldrequireinmigrationofprojectworkerstothearea.Separateconstructionworkforcecommunitiescouldreduceimpacts,aswouldsuccessiveconstructionperiodsforthetencombustion-turbineunits(requiringatotalofabouttenyears)underthecoal-firedgenerationalternative(seeSec.N.2.3.2).About1.5timesasmanyconstructionworkers(45workers)wouldbeneededforabouttenyearsforthenatural-gas-firedgenerationalternativethanforthecoal-firedgenera-tionalternative.Constructioncampsandsuccessiveconstructionperiodswouldreduceimpacts.However,evenifconstructionworkercommunitiesweredeveloped,inmigrationofprojectworkersandtheirhouseholdscouldresultinasmuchasa100%increaseinthepresentpopulationofTyonek(Sec.N.2.3.1).Withorwithoutthesecamps,impactstoTyonekanditscitizenswouldbesignificantlygreaterunderthenatural-gas-firedgenerationthanthecoal-firedalternative.ExceptforimpactstoTyonek,thenatural-gas-firedgenerationscenariowouldcreatefewerimpactstoothercommunitiesthanwouldthecoal-firedgenerationscenario.Underthenatural-gasscenario,othercombined-cycleandcombustion-turbineunitswouldbelocatednearAnchorageandtheKenai-Soldotnaarea.Bothofthesesitesarewithincommutingdistanceofexistingcommunitieslargeenoughtoprovideasourceoftheworkersneededforconstructionandopera-tionoftheunits.Underthecoal-firedgenerationscenario,however,othersmallcommunitiesbesides~Tyonf\wouldexperiencesignificantpopulationinmigration.HealyandNenana,inparticular,wouldgrowconsiderably(by300%and700%atpeak,respectively),duetoinmigrationofworkersandtheirhouseholdmembersforthecoalmineoperationandforconstructionandoperationofthe200-MWunits.ThisnewpopulationwouldsignificantlyaffectsuppliesofservicesandthelifestyleandsubsistenceactivitiesofthelargelyNativepopulationsofthesecommunities.TheareaaroundWillowisbetterequippedtoaccommodateaworkforceinfluxforconstructionofthetwo200-MWcoalunitsunderthisscenario..However,someboomtowneffectswouldbeexperiencedherealso.Thus,withtheexceptionofsignificantimpactstoTyonek,thenatural-gas-firedgenera-tionscenariowouldhavefeweroverallsocioeconomicimpactsthanwouldtheSusitnaBasinorcoal-firedgenerationscenarios.Thehydro-thermalgenerationscenariowithChakachamnawouldhavemoresevereimpactsthanthescenariowithoutChakachamnabecauseofthesignificantsocioeconomicimpactstoTyonekfromconstructionandoperationoftheChakachamnafacility.Asmanyas2,000personscouldmovetotheareaduringpeakconstruction--almosttentimesthecurrentpopulation(Sec.N.2.3.3).Additionally,underthescenariowithChakachamna,concurrentconstructionoftheKeetnaandBrownefacilitiesmightexacerbateindependenteffectsofthetwoprojectsonnearbyNenana,Healy,Cantwell,TrapperCreek,andTalkeetna.EitherwithorwithoutChakachamna,thermalunitswouldbeconstructednearNenanaandTyonek,causingadditionalsubstantialgrowthimpactsintheseareas.Othersmallcommunitieswouldexperiencesocioeconomicimpactsfromconstructionofthenon-Susitnahydropowerfacilities.ThesparselysettledareaalongtheAlaskaHighwaybetweenTokandDeltaJunctionwouldbeaffectedsignificantlybyinmigrationofasmanyas1,300peopleduringpeakconstruction.TwosmallNativeAlaskancommunitiesnearthesite(DotLakeandTanacross)wouldbeparticularlystressedbyevenminorpopulationincreases(Sec.N.2.3.3).DevelopmentoftheSnowfacilitycouldcauseincreaseinthepopulationoftheSewardareabyasmuchas25%.DevelopmentoftheBrownehydropowerfacilitieswouldaffectHealy,NenanaandCantwell;theKeetnafacilitywouldaffecttheTrapperCreekandTalkeetnaareas.Theimpactsthatwouldbeexperiencedinallcaseswouldbeshortagesofservicesandchangesinlifestyleandsubsistenceactivities.However,theimpactswouldnotbeofthemagnitudeofthosecreatedunderotherscenarios.BasedontheassumptionthatconstructioncampswouldbebuiltforprojectsintheTyonekarea,thenatural-gas-firedgenerationscenariowouldappeartotheStafftohavefeweroverallsocio-economicimpactsthananyoftheotherscenarios(includingtheproposedproject).Substantialpopulationgrowthfromproject-inducedinmigrationinpresentlysmallcommunitieswouldoccurtosomedegreeunderallscenarios.Thisgrowthwouldcauseshortagesinallcommunityservices,changesinlifestyles,anddisruptionofsubsistenceactivities.Thecombinedhydro-thermalscenariowithChakachamnaandalltheSusitnaBasindevelopments(includingtheproposedproject)wouldhavethegreatestsocioeconomicimpacts.·Thecoal-firedgenerationscenariowouldhavemoresubstantialimpactsthanthenatural-gas-firedscenario,butlessthantheotheralternatives. N-74N.3MITIGATIONTheStaffandAlaskaStateagenciesconcurontheneedtodevelopthefollowingadditionalmitigationstrategies:Developmentofconcretetransportationplans,includingprovisionoflow-costtranspor-tionoptionsfromthesiteareatotheFairbanksandAnchorageareas,todiscourageinmigrationtolocalcommunitiesandtoprecludeorlimitmobilitybyprivatevehicles[DepartmentofCommunityandRegionalAffairs(McAnerney,1982);Staff].Developmentofconcreteshiftandleaveschedulesthat·encourageconstructionworkerstoestablishormaintainpermanentresidencesoutsidetheprojectarea,e.g.,extendedperiodsofworkfollowedbyextendedleaves(Staff).Trainingandhiringof1oca1subcontractors,the1oca1 1aborforce,andunemp1oyedresidentsandinmigrantsseekingemployment,toreducelocalunemploymentandwelfareneeds[DepartmentofCommunityandRegionalAffairs(McAnerney,1982;)Staff].Developmentofincentives(e.g.,lowrents,low-interestmortgages)toencourageworkers(andtheirhouseholds)toliveinonsitehousingtoreduceinmigrationtosmallcommunitiesintheprojectareaandwhenprojectactivitieswerenearNativecommunities[DepartmentofCommunityandRegionalAffairs(McAnerney,1982);Staff].CleardefinitionofresponsibilitiesbytheApplicant,state,borough,orlocalauthori-tiesforadministrationandfundingoffacilitiesandservicesintheproject(e.g.,powerandtelephones,roads,theonsiteschoo1)developedincooperationwiththeseagenciestoreduceuncertaintiesinplanning[DepartmentofCommunityandRegionalAffairs(Yould,1983);Staff].Definitionoflegalresponsibilitiesforaccesstothesiteduringconstructionandoperationtoclarifyfundingandworkforceneedsandsources[DepartmentofCommunityandRegionalAffairs(Yould,1983);Staff].Activeandproject-fundedparticipationbystate,Federal,andlocalagencyrepresenta-tivesindevelopingmitigationstrategiesandmonitoringimpacts.Theserepresenta-tivesshouldhavelegalauthoritytoapprovemitigationplansandtorecommendchangesinimplementationofplansinlightofmonitoringstudiesandinformationoneffective-nessoftheplanstoensuremutuallysatisfactoryeffortsandreducefutureconflicts[FishandWildlifeService(Bayh,1983);Staff].Reimbursementofguidesdisplacedbyprojectstructuresandactivitiesforlossesofinvestments,lossesfromtransferstoanotherarea,andcostsofreestablishingtheirbusinesses.Controlstolimitfishing,hunting,andtrappingbyonsitepersonnel,particularlyinareasusedforsubsistenceactivities,basedonstudiesofeffectsofrestrictedandopenaccessandofpermitting[FishandWildlifeService(Bayh,1983);Staff].Coordinationwithstate,Federal,andlocalagenciesonspecificplansforthecon-struction~amp/village,administrationofthecamp/village,andaccessoptions[FishandWildlifeService(Bayh,1983);Staff].Financingthedevelopmentofcommunityandboroughlanduseplanstoadapttoproject-inducedgrowthinanorderlyfashion,inlinewithcommunitygoals(Staff).ProvisionoffundingbytheApplicanttothestate,borough,andlocalcommunitiestofinanceconstructionofcommunityservices(e.g.,waterandsewersystems,counselingservices,localroads)inadvanceofpopulationinmigration.Amountandnatureoffunding(e.g.,grants,loans,payments-in-lieu-of-taxes)wouldbedeterminedincon-sultationwiththegovernmentagencies,andadjustedasongoingimpactmonitoringrevealedeffectiveness(Staff).Quarterlyoron-demand,communicationtolocal,borough,'andstateagenciesofprojectschedules,delaysandchangesinschedule,workforcesizesandprojectedneeds,andofworkforceshiftandleaveschedulestoaidtheseagenciesintheirplanning(Staff).Financingofresidentialconstructionthroughloansandotherincentivestolocaldevelopers,recruitingdeveloperswhenlocalonesarenotavailable,andbuyinglandfortemporaryorpermanenthousing,sothatconstructioncanbeginpriortoinmigra-tionandtoreducethedifficultiesofacquiringbacking(Staff).SuchfinancingcouldbeprovidedasinvestmentsbytheApplicant. Provisionofsalariesandequipmentforcommunityandserviceareafireandpolicepersonnel(Staff).Cooperationwithlocal,borough,andstatetransportationplannerstoplanandconstructnewintersectionsandothertrafficcongestedplacesinthetransportationnetwork(e.g.,intersectionoftheParksandDenaliHighways)(Staff).Provisionofincentives(e.g.,salaryincreases,transportationcosts)forworkerslaid":offoverthewinterbutwhowouldbeneededlaterintheprojecttoreturnthefollowingsummerandforthoseemployedonWatanatoworkonDevilCanyoninordertoreducethetotalnumberofinmigrantsandtherateofpopulationturnover(Staff).Provisionofinformationaboutthelocalarea,especiallyaboutNativeAlaskancommuni-ties,culture,andsubsistenceactivities,toinmigratingworkerstoreduceculturalandotherconflictswithlong-timeresidents(Staff).Developmentofarecruitmentprogramtoattractphysiciansandhealthcareprofessionalstoproject-areacommunities.Agencieshavealsosuggested:Analysisofareaswhichwouldbefloodedshouldoneofthedamsfailanddevelopmentoflanduserestrictionsintheseareas[DepartmentofCommunityandRegionalAffairs(McAnerney,1982)].N.4RECOMMENDEDANDONGOINGSTUDIESTheApplicantstatesthatstudiesarebeingconductedto:Updatebaselineandproject-inducedpopulationprojections,incorporatingnewinforma~tionthatonotherimpactstudiesoflarge-scaleconstructionprojects,theratiosofsupporttoprojectworkershavebeenhigh(Yould,1983;ExhibitE,September,1983,Suppl.Responses);Developandupdateamitigationplan(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chapter5,pp.E-5-127-E-5-135;Yould,1983);Planthelocationoftheproposedtownsiteandprovisibnofservicesandfacilities(Yould,1983);andReviseallsocioeconomicimpactanalyses(Yould,1983).Studiesrecommendedinadditiontothoseongoingare:Analysisoftheimpactsofthelocation,type,andadministrationoftheonsitecampandvillageonfishandwildliferesources[FishandWildlifeService(Bayh,1983);Staff];Analysisoftheimpactsoftheproposedprojectoncommercialfishing,includingchangesinthenumberofjobs,indollarvaluesofcatch,inlifestyleoffishingfamilies,andinsubsistencecatches[FishandWildlifeService(Bayh,1983);Staff];Evaluationofsubsistence,recreational,andcommercialhunting,fishing,andtrappingintheprojectareaandmonitoringoftheseactivities(Staff);Monitoringoftheavailabilityoflaborandskillsinthelocalarea,bothincurrentresidentpopulationandininmigrantpopulationattractedbytheprospectofemploy-mentontheproject,inordertoreducelocalunemploymentandwelfareprograms[FishandWildlifeService(Bayh,1983),Staff];Surveyingofworkerstocommunicatetogovernmentagenciesandlocalinterestsonwheretheyhavetheirpermanentresidences;thenumberofschoolchildren;fishing,hunting,andtrappingactivities;anduseoflocalcommunityfacilitiessothatmitiga-tionandplanningcanbeupdated(Staff);andIncooperationwithNativeCorporationsandCouncils,surveyingofsubsistenceactivi-tiesinCantwell,near,andontheprojectsite,soastoknowifandwhenprojectactivitiesinterfereandneedtobeadjusted(Staff). 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DRAFTENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSTATEMENTSUSITNAHYDROELECTRICPROJECT,FERCNO.7114APPENDIX0CULTURALRESOURCESPreparedbyJohnHoffeckerArgonneNationalLaboratory0-1 0-3APPENDIXO.CULTURALRESOURCES0.1AFFECTEDENVIRONMENT0.1.1ProposedProject0.1.1.1IntroductionTheculturalresourcestudyareasfortheproposedSusitnaprojectarerichinprehistoricandhistoricremains.Boththequantityandthequalityoftheseresourcesaresignificant.Currently,423archeologicalandhistoricsitesareknowninthearea,anditisanticipatedthatfurthersurveywillproduceadditionalsites(ExhibitE,*Vol.7,Chap.4,p.E-4-1;Dixonetal.,1984).MostoftheknownsitesareconcentratedinthemiddleandupperSusitnaRiverBasin,chieflyalongtheriveritselfanditstributaries.Morethanhalfofthesitescontainsubsurfaceremains,andmanyoftheseappeartopossessadatablestratigraphiccontext.ThisisparticularlyevidentinthemiddleandupperSusitnaBasin,wheremiddleandupperHolocenetimeisrepresentedbyadatedsequenceofvolcanictephrasthatpermitwidespreadcorrelationofsiteswithanestablishedchronological-stratigraphicscheme.Thisunusualgeologiccontext,althoughsubjecttodisturbanceatsomelocalities,presentsconsiderablepotentialforcontribut-ingtothedevelopmentoftheregionalculture-historicframework.Inadditiontocontainingprehistoricandhistoricartifacts,manysitesalsocontainfeaturesandfaunalremains,andcollectivelyprovidearichsourceofnewinformationonpastlifeways.Althoughin-depthevaluationofsitesignificancehasbeencompletedatonlyasmallportionofsites,itisapparentthatmanyarehighlysignificantandpotentiallyeligibleforinclusionintheNationalRegisterofHistoricPlaces(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.4,p.E-4-125).0.1.1.2Geoarcheology0.1.1.2.1IntroductionItistheunusualgeologiccontextofthearcheologicalsitesinthestudyareas--astrati-graphicsequenceofvolcanictephras--thatunderliestheirsignificanceandpotentialcontribu-tiontoknowledgeofAlaskanprehistory.Forthisreason,athoroughunderstandingofthelocalgeoarcheologyisofprimeimportance.Thetephrasequencepermitstherelativeandabsolutedatingofalargenumberofsitesofpost-glacialage(especiallythemiddleandlateHolocene),providingarareopportunityforthedevelopmentofadetailedculturalchronologyforthisportion oftheAlaskaninterior.ThegenerallackofadequatestratigraphiccontextsinAlaskanarcheology,particularlyintheInterior,hasbeenrecognizedbymanyresearchers(West,1967;Anderson,1968;andothers).Thevalueofthetephrastratigraphymaybelimitedtosomedegree,however,bypost-depositionaldisturbance,anothercommonprobleminAlaskanarcheology.0.1.1.2.2GlacialHistoryTheinitialcontrollingfactorintheprehistoricsettlementofmostoftheprojectareawastheretreatoftheLateWisconsinanglaciersatthecloseofthePleistocene.Althoughtheexis-tenceofpre-LateWisconsinansites(i.e.,sitespre-datingtheadvanceoftheLateWisconsinanglaciers,approximately25,000yearsago)intheareaistheoreticallypossible,noincontro-vertibleevidenceforsuchsitesispresentlyavailableinAlaska.Itisimportant,therefore,todatetheretreatoftheLateWisconsinaniceinordertoestablishtheearliestpossibletimeofhumanhabitation.AnexceptiontothisistheHealy-to-Fairbankstransmissioncorridorsegment,whichremainedicefreethroughouttheUpperPleistocene(Wahrhaftig,1958).TheentireSouthcentralRegionofAlaskawasinundatedbyLateWisconsinanice,includingallprojectareassouthoftheAlaskaRange(Pewe,1975).Globalclimaticameliorationbeganafterabout14,000yearsbeforepresent(B.P.),andvariousdateddepositsfromthispartofAlaska(Denton,1974;TenBrinkandRitter,1980)suggestthatglacierrecession(periodicallyinter-ruptedbybriefreadvances)hadbegunby13,500yearsB.P.Uplandareaslikethemiddleand*Throughoutthisdocument,referencestospecific"Exhibits"aretotheexhibitssubmittedtoFERCaspartofAlaskaPowerAuthority'sSusitnaHydroelectricProjectLicenseApplication.Referencestospecific"Appendices"(App.)aretotheappendicesprovidedinVolumes2through7ofthisDraftEnvironmentalImpactStatement. 0-4upperSusitnaBasinshouldhavebeenblockedbyiceuntilrelativelylateinthissequenceofevents,butaradiocarbondateof11,535±140yearsB.P.(BETA-1821)*frompost-glacialsedi-mentsneartheTyone-Susitnaconfluencesuggeststhatmostofthevalleywasice-freebytheendofthePleistocene(Dixonetal.,1982:p.5-6,Table5).Largemassesofstagnanticeandsmallreadvanceswouldhavecontinuedtoinfluencelocalclimateandtopographyatthistime(Dixonetal.,1982:pp.5-17-5-18).AlthoughlargeglacierswerenolongerpresentintheSusitnaValleybytheearlyHolocene,localreadvancesinthemountainssurroundingthebasin,reflectingglobalclimaticoscillations,occurredrepeatedlyduringthemiddleandlateHolocene(DentonandKarlen,1973;Pewe,1975).Briefepisodesofrenewedglacierexpansionarerecordedatapproximately6,000-5,000yearsB.P.,3,500-2,500yearsB.P.,andagain,after1500A.D.("Litt1eIceAge").Thec1imaticfluctuationsrepresentedbythesereadvancesundoubtedlyinfluencedhumansettlementintheprojectareaandconstituteanimportantfactorinthepre-historyoftheregion.0.1.1.2.3VolcanicTephraDepositsMuchofthemiddleandupperSusitnaBasinhasbeenblanketedwithaseriesofvolcanictephralayers,whichtypicallyoverlietheLateWisconsinanglacialsediments(seeFig.0-1).Thistephrasequenceprovidesthemostimportantbasisfordatingandcorrelatingarcheologicalsitesintheprojectarea.Atleastthree,possiblyfour,tephrashavebeenidentified,threeofwhichhavebeenshowntobepetrographicallydistinguishable(Dixonetal.,1983).Thetephrasarerelativelyfine-textured,withsiltandclayfractionspredominating,andconsistofvolcanicglassandvariousmineralconstituents.Onthewhole,theyappeartorepresentvolcanicashfallsoflimitedduration,subsequentlycompacted,eroded,andpresumablymixedtosomedegreewithnon-volcanicsediments.Thefollowingsequence,withestimatedminimum-maximumbracketingdates,comprisestheprojectarea"tephrochronology"(Dixonetal.,1982:p.5-19,Fig.152).DevilTephra(1,800-2,300yearsB.P.)UpperWatanaTephra[2,300-2,700(?)yearsB.P.]LowerWatanaTephra[2,700(?)-3,200yearsB.P.]OshetnaTephra(4,700-?yearsB.P.)Theageestimatesarebasedonaseriesofradiocarbondatesobtainedfromorganic-bearingnon-volcanicunitsbetweenandabovethetephras.TherecognitionofindividualtephrasatvariouslocationsinthemiddleandupperSusitnaBasinpermitscorrelationanddatingofnumerousarcheologicalsitesoverawidearea,despitetheoveralllackofdepthofthedeposits.0.1.1.2.4OtherDepositsAeoliansandandsiltunitsareoftenpresentbelow,between,andabovethetephralayersinthemiddleandupperSusitnavalley.Thesehorizonsapparentlyrepresentprolongedperiodsofdeposition,weathering,anderosion,whichalternatelyprecededandfollowedthebriefepisodesoftephraaccumulation(Dixonetal.,1982:pp.5-22-5-29).Theyarefrequentlyenrichedwithorganicsderivedfromvarioussources,includingsoilformation.Manysubsurfacearcheologicalhorizonsarefoundinthissedimentarycontext,and,consideringthelengthytimeperiodsthatoftenappeartoberepresented,substantialunitsofoccupationhistorymaybecompressedintotheserelativelythinlayers.Theorganics,whetherrelatedtohumanactivityornot,provideaproductivesourceofradiocarbon-datablematerial.OutsidethemiddleandupperSusitnaBasin,volcanictephrasarelesscommon,andinthoseareasoftheproposedtransmissioncorridorsexaminedtodate,aeoliansandandsiltcomprisethesedimentarycontextforknownsubsurfacesites(Dixonetal.,1982,1983).Wherethesedepositsareofadequatethicknessandassociatedorganicsofsufficientquantity,thiscontextpermitsrelativeand/orabsolutedatingofarcheologicalhorizons.OnthelowterracesoftheSusitnaRiveranditstributaries,beddedsandandsilt1ayersofalluvialoriginprovideanalternativecontextforsubsurfacesites(Dixonetal.,1982,1983).Thesedepositstendtobethickerthantheaeoliansequencesintheprojectarea,andalsoprovideanacceptableandpotentiallyindependentlydatablestratigraphiccontext.0.1.1.2.5Post-DepositionalDisturbanceVariousgeologicprocessescanmodifyasubsurfacearcheologicalsiteduringorafterburial,withsignificanteffectsontheconditionandthehorizontalandverticalpositionofthe*BETA-1821isthelaboratorynumberoftheradiocarbondate. SUSITNA RIVER TEPHROCHRONOLOGY 5 6 4 7 I 0 I U'I I 8 ._-- 9 STRATIGRAPHIC UNITS RAUZED I LITHOLOGIC U CON-STRAT.NSECTIONUNITI TACT UNIT T ':::-]1'\A I .'J ORGANIC I 2~:._._...._.~.:".:~.-.-_.;~.:;.Vt,,:1 I'\.B 3 ORG.SILT II 4 C 5 DEVIL III 6TEPHRA D 7 UPPER WATANA IV 8 TEPHRA K E 9 L.WATANA V 10 K F II OSHETNA VI 12 V G 13I"- DRIFT VII 14 ~-H 15 BEDROCK I VIII I I 16 CORRELATION 2310 t 220(DIC-1877)• 2340t 145(DIC=1903)•_ ;};)!}:f~~S~, 2750 t 215(DIC-2285)•':':':::::'~:;{~j;'~ ~~~~~~~~~~~;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 3200t 195(DIC-1860)•:m~~ 3210t 80 (DIC-2286)•1~~do:5b-"C>"~:O'" .:&;(:~:t>::....~'Q:~'''('~,~i':"'~-.L;~&c',-;r_I ....\_~::;_1(,.....,,,-",,'\/.... /"/I I - \ -'\....,......I'II'....1\",1,1 _...._I~1_\~\/\1.:'1_\,:"".!.."",\1: ,'-,,,\;:-"','"-'"-~, \ ,I-I ...--,\/1-,...'", \1...--,,,,\""--'"_/,".,.,'''_1_-'1",.....",.\/\ ",\-/-,'-\I _,\....."- )I I I,_ )(_;-(\<'I ) -I' 14 COATES AGE (LAB NO.) o MODERN {DIC-1879)•140t:45 DIC-2244)•GENE, 280t 110 DIC-1905)•STRAT. 4000 '4020*65 (DIC-2283). 1000 I- Z LLJ l/) LLJ It: Q.2000 LLJ It: 0 U. LLJm l/) It:« ~3000 4720*130(DIC-1880)' 5000 ',,I Figure 0-1.Stratigraphic Units and Tephrochronology of the Susitna Basin. [Source:Dixon et al.,1982:p.5-19,Fig.152] 0-6remains.Althoughvirtuallyalloftheknownsitesintheprojectareaappeartobeessentiallyinsitu,alargenumberhavebeensubjecttosomepost-depositionaldisturbanceprocesses,includingcryoturbation,frost-driving,andsolifluction(Dixonetal.,1982,1983,1984).Themostseriousconsequencesofthesetypesofdisturbanceoccurwhensubstantialverticaldisplace-mentofremainsdamagesordestroysthestratigraphicintegrityofasite.Thisgreatlyreducesthepotentialofthesiteforcontributingtoknowledgeofthelocalprehistoryandhistory.Lesssevereeffectsincludethehorizontaldisplacementofremains(distortingspatialrelation-shipsandfeatures),damagetoartifactsurfaces,andfragmentationoffaunalremains.0.1.1.3RegionalHistoryandPrehistory0.1.1.3.1IntroductionAlaskanprehistoryandhistoryspanatleast12,000years(seeFig.0-2),andsitesfromalltimeperiodsareknownintheregionscontainingtheprojectstudyareas.Anunderstandingofthisprehistoric-historiccultureframeworkisnecessaryforanevaluationoftheculturalresourcesitesintheseareas,and,asthefollowingreviewindicates,itisaframeworkthatretainsmanyuncertaintiesandunresolvedquestions.Thegeologiccontextfoundinmanypartsoftheproposedprojectareasmakesitlikelythattheirculturalresourceswillcontributesignificantlytothefurtherdevelopmentoftheregionalframework.Inaddition,thedistribu-tionofsites,theirartifacts,andassociatedfeaturesandfaunalremainsarelikelytorevealmuchaboutprehistoricadaptationsandlifeways;someknowledgeofthehistoricperiodisalsolikelytobegained.0.1.1.3.2Pre-TerminalPleistocene(?40,000-12,000yearsB.P.)SinceAlaskawasalmostcertainlytheentrypointtotheNewWorldfortheearliestNativeAmericanpopulations,itpresumablycontainstheoldestarcheologicalsitesinthishemisphere.Manyresearchersbelievethatthesesitesshoulddatetoasmuchas25,000-40,000yearsB.P.orearlier.However,evidenceofsitesinthistimerange,notonlyintheAmericanArcticandSubarctic,butthroughouttheNewWorld,iscontroversial,andatpresentsitespre-dating12,000-13,000yearsB.P.arequestionedbysomeresearchers(e.g.,Haynes,1982).IntheFarNorth,themostwidelyknownevidenceforpre-TerminalPleistocenemanconsistsofalargequantityofmodifiedbonesfromOldCrowBasinintheYukon,purportedtobehumanarti-facts,whichappeartospantheentireWisconsinan(Irving,1978;Morlan,1980).Stonetoolsandhabitationsiteshavenotbeendiscovered.Althoughtheinterpretationofthesefindscontinuestobedebated(Guthrie,1980;Bonnichsen,1981),itisapparentthatmany,thoughperhapsnotall,ofthemodificationstothesebonescanbeaccountedforbynaturalprocesses(Haynes,1983).AstheSusitnaBasinappearstohavebeenopenpriortotheonsetoftheLateWisconsinan(ca.25,000yearsB.P.),andtheHealy-to-Fairbankstransmissioncorridorsegmentwasice-freethroughouttheUpperPleistocene,theseareasmaycontributeevidence(positiveornegative)tothishypotheticalphaseinAlaskanprehistory.Anysitesdatingtothistimeperiodwouldbehighlysignificantwithrespecttotheirpotentialforyieldingimportantinformationinpre-historicarcheology.0.1.1.3.3TerminalPleistocene(12,000-10,000yearsB.P.)TheoldestuncontestedsitesinAlaska(includingSouthcentralAlaska),aselsewhereintheNewWorld,datetotheTerminalPleistocene.InAlaska,thesitesinthistimerangeareassignedtotheAmericanPaleoarcticTradition,specificallytotheDenaliComplex(West,1967).Thelatterischaracterizedbywedge-shapedmicrobladecores,microblades,burins,andotherdiagnostictypes,andbearscloseresemblancestomanyUpperPaleolithicsitesinNortheastAsia.DenaliComplexsitesinSouthcentralAlaskaincludeDonnellyRidgeintheDeltaValley(West,1967),DryCreeknearHealy(PowersandHamilton,1978),andseveralsitesintheTangleLakesarea(West,1981).FaunalremainsfromDryCreekindicatethatthemakersofthistechnologyhuntedlarge,presentlyextinctPleistocenemammals,includingsteppebison(Bisonpriscus),andmayhaveclusteredinthecooleruplandareasoftheregion,whichapparentlysawadelayeddeteriorationofperiglacialtundra/steppeenvironmentsandtheirrichfaunalresources(Ager,1975).ItispossiblethatasecondtechnologyisalsopresentinInteriorAlaska,contemporaneouswithorslightlyearlierthantheDenaliComplex.Theonlyclearlyidentifieddiagnosticartifactsofthistechnologyarebifaciallanceolateortriangularpoints,nowknownfromTerminalPleistocenestratigraphiccontextsatseveralsites,includingDryCreek(PowersandHamilton,.1978)andHealyLake(Cook,1969).Theexistenceofaseparatebifacialpointcomplexremainsanunresolvedissue. Time Scale (Years Before Present) Archeological Tradit ions Historic Period Athapaskan Arctic Small Tool Northern Archaic American Paleoarctic (Denali Complex) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 ? 12,000 o I -.,J Figure 0-2.Chronology of Archeological Traditions in Southcentral Alaska. [Source:Based on Dumond,1977;Anderson 1979;Dixon et al., 1982] 0-80.1.1.3.4EarlyHolocene(10,000-6,500yearsB.P.)FewearlyHolocenesitesarepresentlyknownintheAlaskaninterior.Here,asinotherpartsoftheworld,post-Pleistoceneenvironmentalchangesmayhavehadasignificantimpactonhumanpopulations.Ontheotherhand,theredonotappeartohavebeenmajorchangesintooltech-nology,whichcontinuestobecharacterizedbytheproductionanduseofmicroblades.Innorth-westernAlaska,itisknownlocallyastheKobukComplex(AmericanPaleoarcticTradition)(Anderson,1968).ThebestknownearlyHolocenesiteintheSouthcentralRegionofthestateisCarloCreek,intheNenanaValley(Bowers,1980).Thissitedatestoca.8,500yearsB.P.,butlacksdiagnosticartifactforms.Theassociatedfaunaincludescaribou(Rangifertarandus).0.1.1.3.5MiddleHolocene(6,500-4,000yearsB.P.)MiddleHolocenesitesappeartobecomparativelywellrepresentedinInteriorAlaska,andtheyreflectanabrupt,significantchangeinthearcheologicalrecord.SitesdatingtothisperiodaretypicallyassignedtotheNorthernArchaicTradition(Anderson,1968),andarecharacterizedbyside-notchedpoints,variousbifacialtools,notchedpebbles,andotherforms.InSouth-centralAlaska,NorthernArchaiccomponentshavebeenfoundatDryCreek(PowersandHamilton,1978),theTangleLakessites(West,1973),andelsewhere.ItiswidelybelievedthattheNorthernArchaictechnologyrepresentsanintrusionfrommoresoutherlylatitudes,andisrelatedtoawarmingpeak(theHypsithermal)andmaximumexpansionoftheborealforest(Dumond,1977).0.1.1.3.6LateHolocene(4,000yearsB.P.-1741A.D.)DuringthelaterHolocene,theAlaskaninteriorwitnessesatleasttwomoreabruptchangesintheprehistoricrecord.ThefirstoftheseistheappearanceoftheArcticSmallToolTradition,whichincludesaseriesofcoastalcomplexes(Denbigh,Choris,andNorton),notallofwhichmayberepresentedintheInteriorRegion.Asawhole,theArcticSmallToolTraditionischarac-terizedbyareturntomicrobladeandburintechnology,butalsocontainsvariousbifacialpointforms,andeventuallysomepottery.InSouthcentralAlaska,theArcticSmallToolTraditionisknownfromanumberofsites,inclUdingLakeMinchumina(Holmes,1978),YardangFlintStationintheDeltaValley(Regeretal.,1964),andintheNenanaValley.Themakersoftheseartifactsarethoughttohavepossessedadiverseforesteconomy,exploitinglakeandriverresources,aswellaswoodlandfauna(Dumond,1977).SomemicrobladesitesfromthelaterHolocene(ca.1,000-2,000yearsB.P.)havebeenregardedbysomeresearchersasaLateDenaliphase.Alternatively,thesemayrepresentadditionalArcticSmallToolassemblages(West,1975).Thisquestionremainsunresolved.Approximately1,500-1,000yearsB.P.,prehistoricAthapaskanTraditionsitesappearintheInterior,characterizedbyretouchedboulderchips,scrapers,variousboneimplements,housedepressions,andotherartifactsandfeatures.Towardstheendofthe18thCenturyA.D.,evidenceofcontactwithEuropeansettlers,intheformofglassbeads,metalimplements,andotheritems,ispresent.Pre-contactandpost-contactAthapaskansiteshavebeenknowninthemiddleandupperSusitnaBasinformanyyears(Irving,1957),andarenotuncommonthroughouttheInterior.Atthetimeofcontact,mostoftheSouthcentralRegionwasoccupiedbytheTanainaandAhtnaAthapaskans.Organizedintoanumberofsmalllocalbands,thesegroupscontinuedtofollowaseasonalroundofhunting,fishing,trapping,andgatheringwellintothehistoricperiod(Baconetal.,1983).0.1.1.3.7HistoricPeriod(1741A.D.-present)TheearliestEuropeanstoexploretheregionwereRussians,whocametotheshoresofSouth-centralAlaskafor furtradingfollowingBering'sfirstexpeditiontothemainlandin1741.FromabaseestablishedonKodiakIslandin1784,theyhuntedinthewatersofPrinceWilliamSoundandCookInlet,nearthemouthoftheSusitnaRiver.Earlycontactswiththenativepopulationwereoftenviolent,astheEuropeansrepeatedlyexploitednativelaborthroughsuperiormilitarytechnology(Hulley,1970).RussianeffortstoexploretheinteriorofAlaskawerelimited,andnotuntil1834didanexpedi-tiontraveluptheSusitnaValley,underthecommandofMalakoff(Bacon,1975).By1867,withfurresourcesdeclining,hostilitieswiththenativepopulationcontinuing,andthecolonystrategicallyvulnerable,theRussiansdecidedtosellAlaskatotheUnitedStatesfor$7.2million(Hunt,1976)..Thefirstmajorinfluxofnon::Native"Americansettlerstotheregioncameafterthe1895dis-coveryofgoldinCookInlet."Inthefo11owingyear,pr"ospectorsbegantoexploretheSusitnaRiver,althoughthedifficultDevilCanyonpassagelimitedpenetrationoftheuppervalley.AmajorgoldstrikeonValdezCreekin1903broughtalargegroupofprospectorsintotheSusitnaarea,throughtheCopperRiverroute(Bacon,1975).Claimswereworkedthereuntilthe1930s,afterwhichtheuppervalleywasusedchieflyforhuntingandtrapping(Dixonetal.,1982). 0-90.1.1.4MiddleandUpperSusitnaBasin0.1.1.4.1HistoryofResearchThefirstarcheologicalinvestigationsinthemiddleandupperSusitnaBasinwereundertakenin1953(Irving,1957);theyinvolvedsurveyingoftheDevilCanyondamsite.Allsitesreportedatthattime,however,layoutsidethecurrentstudyarea.Researchdidnotresumeuntilthe1970s,whenasurveyfortheproposedDenaliStatePark(West,1971)andanareawideaerialreconnaissanceandgroundsurveyattheproposedDevilCanyonandWatanadamsites(Bacon,1975,1978a,b)producedfourprehistoricsitesinthevicinityofthelatterandfivesitesnearStephanLake.In1980-1983,theUniversityofAlaskaMuseuminitiatedlarge-scalesurveyandpreliminaryexcavationfortheAlaskaPowerA~thority(Dixonetal.,1981,1982,1983,1984).FieldworkaccomplishedtodateincludesreconnaissancesurveyoftheproposedWatanaandDevilCanyondamsitesandimpoundmentareas,allborrowsites,geotechnicaltestingareas,andtheWatanaairstrip,sensitivitymapping*oftheproposedaccessroads,railroad,PhaseIrecreationsites,andtransmissionlines,andsystematictesting(i.e.,significanceassessment)of26sub-surfacesites(Dixonetal.,1984).Duringthe1984fieldseason,boththeculturalresourcesinventoryandsignificanceassessmentwillbecompleted(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.4,p.E-4-134).ThesurveyresearchdesignemployedbytheAlaskaPowerAuthoritywasdevelopedtofocusonareasofhighpotentialforculturalresourcesites,whichinvariablyexhibitanon-randomspatialdistribution(Dixonetal.,1980).Areasofverylimitedsitepotential(e.g.,steepslopes)wereeliminatedaltogether,whileexistingknowledgeofsitedistributionalpatternswasusedtoselectpromisingsamplinglocalesonthebasisoftopographiccharacteristicsandotherimportantlandscapefeatures(e.g.,aminerallick)(Dixonetal.,1982:p.2-11).Accordingly,164surveylocalesweredesignated,bothwithinandadjacenttoareasthatwouldbedirectlyaffectedbytheproposedproject.Theselocales(typicallyoccupyingseveralthousandsquaremeters)weresubjecttoapedestriansurfacereconnaissanceand,wheresurficialsedimentswerepresent,aseriesofrandomtestpitsandsmallershoveltests.Asthesurveyproceeded,newlocationaldatawereappliedtorefinetheresearchdesign,leadingtoasignificantincreaseinthenumberofsampledlocalesyieldingsites[from25%in1980-1981to53%in1984(Dixonetal.,1984:p.2-3)J.ThemethodsemployedinthesurveyappeartotheStafftobeadequateforarelativelythoroughinventoryofculturalresources.Amongthesitesdiscoveredtodate,asmallnumberhavebeensubjecttosystematictesting(exploratoryexcavation)inordertodeterminetheireligibilityfornominationtotheNationalRegisterofHistoricPlaces.Systematicallytestedsiteswereexaminedwithasequenceofone-metertestsquares,andinmanycasessubstantialquantitiesofartifacts,faunalmaterial,andinformationonstratigraphyandfeatureswerecollected(Dixonetal.,1982,1983,1984).ThesedatawerefUllyadequate,andinsomeinstancesmorethanadequate,forassessmentofsitesignificanceandNationalRegistereligibility,giventherelativelylimitedavailableknowledgeofInteriorAlaskanprehistory.0.1.1.4.2PrehistoricandHistoricSitesThemiddleandupperSusitnaBasincontains209presentlyknownarcheologicalandhistoricsites[Dixonetal.,1982, 1983,1984].About70%ofthesesiteshaveproducedsubsurfaceremains,manyofthempossessingrecognizablesegmentsofthevolcanictephrasequence.Thewidespreadoccurrenceofadatablestratigraphiccontextanddiversityofrepresentedarcheologicaltradi-tionsmakethisanimportantgroupofsitesforAlaskanprehistory.Geographically,thesitesmaybedividedintofiverelativelyconcentratedgroups,theremainingfewoccurringinisolatedcontexts(seeFig.0-3).ThelargestandmostimportantgroupissituatedalongtheSusitnaRiveranditstributaries,fromtheTsusenaCreekareatotheJayCreekarea.Thisgroupcoversanapproximately35-mile(mi)[60-kilometer(km)]sectionoftheriverandcontains116sites,fiveofthemhistoric(56%ofthetotalforthisprojectarea).TheyoccurneartheproposedWatanadamsite,andbothwithinandadjacenttotheimpoundmentarea.Topographically,theytendtobeclusteredatstreamconfluences,alongridge-tops,andonknollsandterraces.Thesecondgroupisfoundupriver,inthevicinityoftheOshetna-Susitnaconfluence,andincludes13archeologicalsites(7%ofthetotal).Thesesitesarelocatedadjacenttotheuppermostportion oftheWatanaimpoundmentarea,intopographicsituationssimilartothefirstgroup.Northoftheriver,alongtheproposedDenaliHighwayaccessroad,athirdgroupofsitesoccursintheDeadmanLake-BigLakearea,comprising14archeologicalsites(7%ofthetotal),chieflysituatedonexposedknolltops.Thesesitesarelocatedalongtheproposedaccessroadandinnearbyareas.Approximately10mi(17km)tothesouthwestofthisgroup,inthevicinityandnorthofTsusenaButteintheupperTsusenaCreekvalley,afourthgroup,containing29sites(14%ofthetotal),reported.Thisgroupincludesonehistoricsite.Thesesitesareclusteredintwoproposedborrowareas;theygenerallyoccuralongridge-topsoverlookingthestream*Thisinvolvesanevaluationofthesitepotentialofagivenareathroughaerialandlimitedon-groundreconnaissance. 0-10zoI"")coLakeLouisezo&'J1S1"O""':o;;-W-------'4-9T"o-W-------1-4-8,...o-W-------1-4-,7r""o-W-------1-4"16oW17Miles~Archeological/HistoricSiteGroupsFigure0-3.MajorCulturalResourceSiteGroupsintheMiddleandUpperSusitnaBasin.[Source:BasedonDatafromDixonetal.,1982, 1983,1984]valley.Thefifthgroupcomprises11archeologicalsites(5%ofthetotal)distributedalonga12-mi(20-km)sectionoftheproposedDevilCanyon-to-Watanadamsiteaccessroad(Milepost23toMilepost11).Theremaining24sites(10%ofthetotal),areisolatedoccurrencesofvaryingsignificance;threehistoricsitesareincluded.Atleastnineofthesitesaresituatedinareasthatwouldbeaffectedbytheproposedproject:fourwithinoradjacenttotheDevilCanyonimpoundment,threewithinoradjacenttotheWatanaimpoundment,andtwoalongthenorth-southaccessroadnorthoftheWatanadamsite.Ofthe209sitesknowninthisstudyarea,142(68%)haveproducedsubsurfacematerial,anunusuallyhighpercentage.Thesearethesites,especiallythoseinadatablestratigraphiccontext,thataregenerallythemostimportant.Mostpossessrecognizableportionsofthevolcanictephrasequence,whichpermitsreadycorrelationanddatingwiththetephrochrono-logicalscheme.Amongthesubsurfacesites,30ormoremaycontainmultipleburiedcomponents, 0-11someofwhichappeartorepresentdifferentperiodsintheprehistoric-historiccultureframe-work.Suchsites(e.g.,TLM027,048)*areuncommonintheAlaskaninterior.Ofthe116archeologicalsitesknownintheTsusena-JayCreekgroup,74containsubsurfaceremains.Amongthese,asurprisingnumber(66)havenotproducedanysurficialremains.Fully66ofthesesubsurfacesitescontainrecognizableportionsofthetephrasequenceand33haveyieldedfaunalremainsinassociationwithartifactsand/orfeatures.Allofthedefinedregionalarcheologicaltraditionsappeartoberepresentedamongthesesites:AmericanPaleoarctic(TLM027, 040,048),NorthernArchaic(TLM027,128,143),ArcticSmallTool(TLM018,033, 053,069),andAthapaskan(TLM022, 038, 043, 045,050,059, 062, 065,130).ThefivehistoricalsitesconsistofwoodcabinsdatingtotheTrappingPeriod(1920-1945),allbutoneofthemassociatedwithartifactsfromthatperiod.TheOshetna-Susitnaconfluencegroupcontainstensubsurfaceandthreesurficialsites;twoofthesubsurfacesiteslacksurficialremains.Recognizableportionsofthetephrasequencearepresentatsevenofthesubsurfacesites.Faunalremainswererecoveredfromfoursites.Noregionalarcheologicaltraditionshaveyetbeenidentifiedatthesesites,butinviewofthehighproportionoflocalitiescontainingremainsinstratigraphic(specificallytephrasequence)context,itseemslikelythatthiswillbeaccomplishedinthecourseoffutureresearch.TheDeadmanLake-BigLakegroupislargelycomposedofsurficialsitesoflimitedimportance.Onlythreesubsurfacesiteshavebeenreportedtodatetwoofwhichcontainportionsofthetephrasequence.Allofthesubsurfacesitespossesssurficialremains.Nofaunalremainshavebeenrecoveredfromthesesites,andnoregionalarcheologicaltraditionshavebeenidentified.TheUpperTsusenaCreekgroupcontainsahighproportionofimportantsites.Ofthe28archeo-logicalsites,23possesssubsurfacematerial,and14oftheselacksurficialremains.Portionsofthetephrasequencehavebeenrecognizedat20ofthesesites;faunalremainshavebeenrecoveredfromonly3ofthem.AllregionalarcheologicaltraditionsexcepttheAmericanPaleo-arctichavebeenidentifiedatTLM027,anditseemslikelythatfutureresearchwillpermittheidentificationofvarioustraditionsatothersites.Onehistoricsite,awoodcabinwithassociatedartifactsanddebris,hasbeenlocatedinthisgroup.ThesitesdiscoveredtodatealongtheproposedrouteoftheDevilCanyon-to-Watanadamsiteaccessroadare,liketheDeadmanLake-BigLakegroup,mostlysurficialandoflimitedimpor-tance.Outofatotalof11archeologicalsites,onlyonecontainssubsurfacematerial.Thissite(TLM110)alsopossessessurficialmaterialandpartofthetephrasequence.Nofaunalremainshavebeenrecoveredfromthesesites,andnoregionalarcheologicaltraditionshavebeenidentified.Siteslocatedoutsidethefivemajorgeographicgroupsinclude9surficialand12subsurfacearcheologicallocalities.Sixofthesubsurfacesitespossessportionsofthetephrasequence;nineofthemalsopossesssurficialremains.Faunalmaterialwasrecoveredfromonlyonesite,asurface1oca1ity.Regiona1archeo1ogica1traditionsidentifiedtodateincludeNorthernArchaic(TLM030)andArcticSmallTool(TLM030,034).Threehistoricsites,includingtwocabinsandarockinscriptiondatingtothelateNineteenthCentury,arepresentlyknownamongtheisolatedsites.0.1.1.4.3PaleontologicLocalitiesThemiddleandupperSusitnaBasinalsocontainsseveralimportantpaleontologiclocalities.Plantmacro-fossilswererecoveredfrom13TertiarybedrockoutcropsalongWatanaCreek;theyarethoughttobeofOligoceneageandprovideinformationonplantcommunitiesduringthatperiod(Dixonetal.,1982:pp.6-1to6-5).Pleistocenemammalianremainsincludeaprobosci-deanfemurfragmentcollectedfromWisconsinangravelsatTyoneBluff(neartheTyone-Susitnaconfluence),radiocarbon-datedat29,450±610yearsB.P.(BETA-1819),(Dixonetal.,1982:pp.5-33to5-34),andmandibularfragmentsandamolarrepresentingagiantmoosefromTLM196(Dixonetal.,1984:p.3-123).0.1.1.4.4SignificanceofCulturalResourcesCurrently,26sitesinthemiddleandupperSusitnaBasinhavebeensystematicallytestedbytheAlaskaPowerAuthorityforsignificanceassessment(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.4,p.E-4-125;Dixonetal.,1984).Withoneexception(TLM033),allwerefoundtobesignificantandpoten-tiallyeligibleforinclusionintheNationalRegisterofHistoricPlaces.ThesignificanceofthesesitesliesintheirpotentiallyimportantinformationonAlaskaprehistory,bothinterms*ThesedesignationsrefertotheAlaskaHistoricalResourcesSurveynumberassignedtoagivensiteintheTalkeetnaMountains(TLM)U.S.G.S.quadrangle.Eachquadrangleisaccordedaseparatesequenceofsitenumbers. 0-12of{I)understandingtheprehistoric-historicculturesequenceandpast1ifeways,and(2)intheirembodimentofdistinctivecharacteristicsofvariousprehistoricperiods,asspecifiedin36CFR60.4,whichliststhenecessarycriteriaforNationalRegistereligibility.Allofthesesitespossessadatablestratigraphiccontext(typicallycontainingportionsofthetephrasequence),andmanycontaindiagnosticartifacts,features,andfaunalremains,allofwhicharepertinenttothefirstcriterion,andmostofwhicharepertinenttothesecondcriterion.Threehistoricsites(cabins)havealsobeendetermined(withoutsystematictesting)tobesigni-ficantonthebasisoftheirpossessionofdistinctivecharacteristicsofahistoricperiod.Giventhehighproportionofremainingstratified,datablearcheologicalsites,manyofwhichcontainlargequantitiesofartifactualandfaunalremains,itislikelythatmanyadditionalsitesinareaspotentiallyaffectedbytheproposedprojectwillbeassessedassignificant.Amoderatingfactorinthisevaluationispost-depositionaldisturbance,whichhasbeenobservedat10%to15%ofthesites.Wheretheverticaldisplacementofremainsappearstohavebeensubstantial,sitesignificancemaybereduced.Thesurficialarcheologicalsitesgenerallylackanadequatestratigraphiccontext,andareoflimitedimportance.Possibleexceptionswouldincludesituationswheresurfacematerialoverliesthewholetephrasequence,andconsequentlyrestsinabetter-definedchronological(andbyinference,cultural)unit.Thesesitescouldprovidesomeusefulinformationonlateprehistoric(specificallyAthapaskan)settlementpatterns.However,manysurfacesitesoccuronexposedtillandlackdiagnosticartifacts;theseremainsareverydifficulttorelatetospecificperiodswithinthe12,000-yearrecordofregionalhabitation,andarethereforeoflittlesignificance.0.1.1.5TransmissionCorridors0.1.1.5.1HistoryofResearchAtpresent,onlysensitivitymapping,includinglimitedon-groundreconnaissance,hasbeencompletedalongtheproposedDams-to-GoldCreeksegmentoftheproposedtransmissioncorridor,theHealy-to-Willowsegment(whichparallelstheIntertie),andtheWillow-to-Anchoragesegment(Dixonetal.,1984).However,previousresearchandsomegroundreconnaissancehaveproducedanumberofsitesintheHealy-to-FairbankssegmentandalongtheIntertie.PreliminarysurveysintheHealyareawereundertakenin1973and1975(Holmes,1975)and1976(Plaskett,1976),thefirstyieldingthewell-knownstratifiedDryCreeksite(PowersandHamilton,1978).TheDryCreeksitecontainstwoDenaliComplex(i.e.,AmericanPaleoarctic)componentswithassociatedfaunalremainsandaNorthernArchaiccomponent.SeveralnewHealyareasiteshavebeenreportedfromrecentsurveywork(Hoffecker,1980),includingreconnaissancetestingfortheAlaskaPowerAuthorityin1982(Dixonetal.,1983).MuchinformationisavailableaboutculturalresourcesalongtheIntertieroute,bothasaresultofsurveysconductedbytheAlaskaPowerAuthorityin1981-1982(Baconetal.,1982,1983)andearlierdiscoveries(Reger,1978).Additionalfieldworkwillbenecessarytocompletetheculturalresourcesinventoryandsignificanceassessmentofthisstudyarea.Reconnaissancesurveyoftheremainderofthetransmissioncorridorsisplannedfor1984,withsystematictestingwhereappropriateforevaluationofsignificance.Theexistingplansappeartobeadequateforenvironmentalimpactassessment.0.1.1.5.2PrehistoricandHistoricSitesHEALY-TO-FAIRBANKSSEGMENTAtotalof69archeologicalandhistoricsitesiscurrentlyknownfromthisportion oftheproposedcorridor(Dixonetal.,1984).Nopaleontologicalsiteshavebeenreported,althoughmanyPleistocenemammalfossilshavebeenrecoveredfromtheareaaroundEster(westofFairbanks)(Pewe,1975).Thelargestconcentrationofsites(46)occursintheNenanaValleybetweenHealyandBrowne.Thesearechieflyarcheologicalandincludeanumberofsmallsurfacesites(e.g.,FAI141,HEA026,HEA038)andseveralsubsurfacelocalities(e.g.,FAI214,HEA035).Someofthelattercontainmultiplecomponents(FAI206,HEA005,HEA129,andothers),butfaunalremainsarerare.Allregionalprehistorictraditionsappeartoberepre-sentedinthisarea.Somehistoricsitesarepresent,includingtheAlaskaRailroadstationatHealy(HEA080)(Holmes,1975;Plaskett,1976;Hoffecker,1980;Dixonetal.,1983,1984).Theremaining23sitesaremostlylocatedwithinthetownofNenanaandinGoldstreamValley,alongtheAlaskaRailroad(Dixoneta1.,1984).Detailedinformationaboutthesesitescurrentlyisnotavailable.HEALY-TO-WILLOWSEGMENTAtotalof,40archeologicaland76historicsiteshasbeenrecordedalongtheIntertie,whichparallelstheHea1y-to-Willowsegmentoftheproposedcorridor(Baconeta1.,1982,1983).Sitesaredistributedthroughouttheproposedprojectarea,althoughtheheaviestconcentrationoccursatthenorthernend,betweenHealyandCantwelLThearcheo1ogica1localitiesarechieflysurficial(e.g.,HEA019,HEA096,HEA200),butseveralsubsurfacesites(e.g.,HEA201,---~.-~------ 0-13HEA203)arealsoknown.Thesesubsurfacesitesincludethemulti-componentCarloCreeksite(HEA031)(Bowers,1980),andthelateprehistoricNenanaRiverGorgesite(HEA062)(Plaskett,1977)bothofwhichcontainfaunalremains.Itseemslikelythatmost,ifnotall,regionaltraditionsarerepresentedinthisarea.Half(43)ofthehistoricsitesarebridges,tunnels,stations,andcampsassociatedwiththeAlaskaRailroad.Theremainderincludehistoriccabins(e.g.,TAL019,HEA206),houses(e.g.,TAL023,TAL028),andcemeteries(e.g.,CI165,CI169).WILLOW-TO-ANCHORAGESEGMENTThirtyarcheologicalandhistoricsitesarecurrentlyknownalongthissouthernsegmentoftheproposedtransmissioncorridor(Dixonetal.,1984).Detailedinformationonthesesitesispresentlylimited.Anumberofthemarehistoriclocalities,includingsitesassociatedwiththeAlaskaRailroad(e.g.,ANC079,ANC099).0.1.1.5.3SignificanceofCulturalResourcesAlthoughnosystematictestingforsitesignificanceassessmenthasbeenconductedbytheAlaskaPowerAuthorityinthetransmissioncorridorstudyarea(Dixonetal.,1984),itisclearfromexistingdatathatatleastseveralofthesitesarelikelytobejudgedsignificantandpoten-tiallyeligiblefortheNationalRegisterofHistoricPlaces.WhilethedatedtephrasequencethatoccursinthemiddleandupperSusitnaBasinisabsentinthetransmission-corridorareasexaminedtodate,theaeoliandepositsintheHealyareaconstituteastratigraphiccontextforseveralsites(e.g.,DryCreek)thatalreadyhaveprovidedimportantinformationonAlaskanprehistory.TheCarloCreeksite(nearCantwell)representsanotherimportantarcheologicalsite.Itispossible,therefore,thatthisportionofthestudyareawillcontainadditionalsignificantsites.0.1.2SusitnaDevelopmentAlternatives0.1.2.1AlternativeDamLocationsandDesigns0.1.2.1.1WatanaI-DevilCanyonThereductionoftheproposedWatanareservoirlevelby100feet(ft)[30meters(m)]wouldnotaltertheaffectedenvironment,butwouldexcludeanumberofsitesfromtheimpoundmentareaoritspotentiallyunstablemargins.ThelargestconcentrationofthesesitesislocatedonthesouthernsideoftheSusitnaRiver,oppositethemouthofWatanaCreek,where13archeologicalsites(TLM064,120through125,127,and129through133)occuratelevationsof2,200to2,300ft(670-700m)(Dixonetal.,1983).Slopesinthisareaarecurrentlystable,althoughsubjecttosomepotentialbeachingandflows(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.6,Fig.E-6-35).MostofthesesiteswouldoccupyhigherslopesratherthanreservoirmarginsundertheWatanaIscheme.Onesite(TLM064)wouldoccupyanimpoundmentmarginarea,ratherthananinundatedzone.Asmallergroupoffivearcheologicalsites(TLM026,042, 073,196,207)thatoccuratelevationsof2,200ft(670m)orslightlyhigherintheOshetna-Susitnaconfluencearea(Dixonetal.,1982,1984),wouldbelocatedonareservoirmarginand,possiblyinsomecases,higherslopes,ratherthaninundatedzones.Onlyoneofthesesites(TLM196)isinanareaofcurrentslopeinstability(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.6,Fig.E-6-45).Fiveotherarcheologicalsitesarelikelytobeaffected,includingTLM177nearDeadmanCreek,TLM038and218inupperWatanaCreek,TLM119approximately6mi(10km)aboveWatanaCreekmouth,andTLM145onJayCreek(Dixonetal.,1982,1983,1984).Threeofthesesites(TLM119,177218)wouldoccupyreservoirmarginsratherthaninundatedzones,whiletheremainingpairwouldprobablybeonhigherslopesratherthaninmarginalzones.AllothersitesdescribedintheWatanaimpoundmentareafortheproposedproject(seeSec.K.1.1.1)wouldbeinundatedbytheproposedWatanaIalternative.Onlythreeofthesitesdiscussedabove(TLM038, 042,130)havebeensystematicallytestedforsignificanceassessment,andallwerefoundtobesignificant(Dixonetal.,1982,1983).Amongtheothersites,onlyfive(TLM122, 124, 131,132,133)appeartobelackinginsubsurfaceremains,andseemunlikelytobesignificant.Threesites(TLM026,123,196)containsub-surfacematerialthatmayormaynotberelatedtohumanoccupation.Atleastsixlocalities(TLM064, 073,121,177,207,218)containarcheologicalremainsinatephrasequencestrati-graphiccontextandarelikelytobesignificant.Itisnotclearhowmanyoftheremainingninesitesarelikelytobesignificant.CulturalresourceswithinorneartheDevilCanyonimpoundmentarea,whichwouldnotbealteredunderthisproposedalternative,aredescribedinSection0.1.1.1.0.1.2.1.2WatanaI-ModifiedHighDevilCanyonTheexistingenvironmentfortheproposedWatanaIalternativeisdescribedinSection0.1.2.1.1.ThelocationoftheModifiedHighDevilCanyonalternativedamsite,approximately5mi(8km)upstreamfromtheproposedDevilCanyonsite,andtheelevationoftheproposedDevilCanyon 0-14reservoirlevelby20ft(6m),wouldnotaltertheaffectedenvironmentwithrespecttoculturalresourcesforthisproposedprojectareaasdescribedinSection0.1.1.1.0.1.2.1.3WatanaI-ReregulatingDamTheaffectedenvironmentfortheproposedWatanaIalternativeisdescribedinSection0.1.2.1.1.ThelocationoftheReregulatingdamalternative,approximately13mi(22km)upstreamfromtheproposedDevilCanyondamsiteandthecreationofa1,500-ft(460-m)reservoirwouldaltertheaffectedenvironmentbyexcludingonearcheological(TLM118)andonehistoric(TLM020)sitefromtheareawhichwouldbeimpactedbytheproposedDevilCanyondevelopmentasdescribedinSection0.1.1.1.-0.1.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutes0.1.2.2.1Corridor1(North)Thisalternativehasbeensubjecttopreliminarysurvey(chieflyaerialreconnaissance)(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.4,p.E-4-4).Twelvearcheologicalsiteshavebeenreported;thesearediscussedinSection0.1.1.4.2.Thesesitesaretypicallylackinginstratigraphiccontextandareoflimitedimportance.Itseemsunlikelythatthisaccesscorridorwouldcontainmany,ifany,significantsites.0.1.2.2.2Corridor2(South)Onlylimitedportionsofthisalternativeaccesscorridor(alongtheSusitnaRiverbetweenTsusenaandFogcreeks)havebeensurveyed.Generally,theterraincoveredbytherouteisthoughttohave1esspotentialforsignificantsitesthantheothercorridors(ExhibitE,Vol.9,Chap.10,p.E-10-46).0.1.2.2.3Corridor3(Denali-North)Althoughthisalternativeaccesscorridorhasonlybeensubjecttopreliminary(chieflyaerial)reconnaissancesurvey(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.4,p.E~4-4),agroupofsiteshasbeendis-coveredintheDeadmanLake-BigLakearea.Thesesitesinclude14archeologicallocalities;theyaremostlysurfacesitesoflimitedimportance.Twoothersites(TLM116,153)arereportednearMP36.TLM116isasurfacesite(rockcairn);noinformationisavailableonTLM153.Itseems1ikelythatadditionalsiteswi11belocatedinthecourseoffuturesurveys;asmallproportionofthesesitesmaybesignificant.0.1.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutesAvailableinformationonexistingculturalresourcesinthetransmissioncorridorsispresentedinSection0.1.1.5.0.1.2.4AlternativeBorrowSitesAllproposedquarry/borrowsiteshaveeitherbeensurveyedoreliminatedfromsurveyforculturalresources(Dixonetal.,1984).OnlyborrowsitesC,E,andFcontainarcheological/historicsites.BorrowsiteHisadjacenttotheFogCreeksite(TLM030),whichhasbeenassessedassignificant.BorrowsiteCislocatedintheUpperTsusenaCreekarea,where29archeologicalsiteshavebeendiscovered(seediscussioninSec.0.1.1.4.2).FifteenoftheTsusenaCreeksitesreportedlyoccurwithinthisborrowpit,andthemajorityofthesepossesssubsurfaceremainswithinvolcanictephrastratigraphy(Dixoneta1.,1982,1984).Onesite(TLM097)hasalreadybeenassessedassignificant(Dixonetal.,1984),anditislikelythatmoreofthesesiteswillbetermedsignificant.BorrowsiteE,whichislocatedatthemouthofTsusenaCreek,containstwoarcheologicalsites,oneofwhich(TLM022)hasbeensystematicallytestedandtermedsignificant,andahistoriccabin.ThisareaisalsoincludedwithintheDevilCanyonimpoundment.Afourth·site(TLM035)isadjacenttothisborrowpitbutoutsidetheimpoundment;thissitemaybesignificant.BorrowsiteFislocatedonTsusenaCreek,immediatelydownstreamfromborrowsiteC.Itcontainsninearcheologicalandonehistoricsite.Allbuttwoofthearcheologicalsiteshaveproducedartifactsinatephrastratigraphiccontext(Dixonetal.,1984),andalthoughnonehasbeensystematicallytestedtodate,itseemslikelythatsomewillbeassessedassignificant. 0-150.1.3Non-SusitnaPowerGenerationAlternatives0.1.3.1NaturalGas-FiredGenerationScenario0.1.3.1.1Beluga-ChuitnaAreaNoculturalresourcesarepresentlyreported[i.e.,1istedinA1askaHistoricResourcesSurvey(AHRS)files]fromthetwodesignatedsitingareasforthisalternativelocation,andnolocalsurveyshavebeenconducted.However,aregionalliteraturesearchhasbeencompleted(Bacon,1982).FourhistoricandethnohistoricsitesareknownintheTyonekarea(twoinTyonek,oneinLadd,andoneatGranitePoint)(Smith,1984),butithasbeensuggestedthatprehistoricandhistoricnativesitesalongtheshorelinewou11havebeenlargelydestroyedbytidalaction(ExhibitE,Vol.9,Chap.10,p.E-10-119).Site-specificsurveyswouldbenecessarytoade-quatelyassessculturalresources.Sincebothareasarenearthecoast,andcontainportionsofriversystems,itseemslikelythatsomeculturalresourcesiteswinbepresent,particularlyonthehigherground.(SeeSec.0.1.3.2.3fordiscussionofCookInletregionalprehistoryandhistory.)0.1.3.1.2KenaiThealternativesitingareacontainsatleastfourarcheologicalsites,apparentlyoflateprehistoricandhistoricage(Kentetal.,1964).Severalkilometerstothesouth,inthevicinityoftheKenaiRiver,thereareovertwentysites,consistingchieflyofancienthousedepressionsandpits.ThesesitescontainasmallnumberofAthapaskan(?)artifactsandRussiantradeitems,andareofcomparableage.Asite-specificsurveywouldbenecessarytofullyassessexistingculturalresources,andseemslikelytoproduceadditionalsites,especiallyinassociationwithBishopCreekandthenumeroussmalllakesinthearea.0.1.3.1.3AnchorageNoculturalresourcesitesarecurrentlyreported(i.e.,listedinAHRSfiles)inthisalterna-tivesitingarea(Dixonetal.,1984),andnolocalsurveyshavebeenconducted(Smith,1984).Asite-specificsurveywouldbenecessarytoproperlyassessexistingculturalresources.ThenorthshoreofTurnag~inArmhasproducedatleastonehighlysignificantarcheologicalsite(BelugaPoint)whichcontainsremainsoftheAmericanPaleoarctic(?),NorthernArchaic,andmorerecentKachemakTradition(Reger,1977).0.1.3.2Coal-FiredGenerationScenario0.1.3.2.1WillowPortionsoftheWillowareahavebeensurveyedbyReger(1978),aswellasbytheAlaskaPowerAuthorityfortheAnchorage-FairbanksTransmissionIntertie(Baconetal.,1982,1983),reveal-ingthreehistoricsitesassociatedwiththeAlaskaRailroad,andoneprehistoricsitecontain-ingahousepit.Asite-specificsurveywouldbenecessarytofullyassessexistingculturalresources.Theareaseemsunlikelytopossessmanysignificantsites.0.1.3.2.2NenanaTheNenanaareamaybeinc1udedintheregiona1historyandprehistorydiscussioninSec-tionO.1.1.3.Sevensitesarereportedintheimmediatevicinityofthetown(Dixonetal.,1984),butnositesorsurveysarereportedforthedesignatedsitingarea(Smith,1984).Asite-specificsurveywouldbenecessaryforadequateassessmentofexistingculturalresources.Itseemspossible,giventhegeographicposition(attheNenana-Tananaconfluence)andhistoricimportanceofNenana,thatsignificantprehistoricandhistoricsiteswouldoccurhere.0.1.3.2.3CookInletTheCookInletareaispartofaregion(thesouthcentralcoast)characterizedbyaprehistoryandhistorydistinctfromthatofthemiddleandupperSusitnaValleyandadjoiningareasoftheAlaskanInterior.Variousportionsofithavebeensubjecttosurveysandexcavationsoverthe1asthalfcentury,includingPrinceWi11iamSound(deLaguna,1956),thenorthernsideofKnikArm(DumondandMace,1968),andthenorthwesternKenai(Kenteta1.,1964).Theearliestinhabitantsknowntodatemanufacturedamicrobladetechnology,possiblyassociatedwiththeAmericanPaleoarcticTradition(DenaliComplex),discoveredattheBelugaPointsite(ANC054)onthenorthshoreofTurnagainArm,whichmayalsocontainaNorthernArchaiccomponent(Reger,1977).However,mostofthesitesinthisregioncanbeassignedtotheKachemakTradition,representingtheremainsofacoastal-adaptedlateprehistoricpeople(3500-1000B.P.)(Dumond,1977).ImportantsitesincludeFishCreek(ANC037)andCottonwoodCreek(ANC035)onthenorthsideofKnikArm,andPalugvikontheeastsideofPrinceWilliamSound.Theyhaveyieldedpottery,stonelambs,labrets,polishedslateimplements,andotherartifacts,andcontainhousedepressions,pits,andmiddens.Inhistorictimes,theregion(excludingPrinceWilliamSound) 0-16wasoccupiedbytheTanaina,anAthapaskangroup,whosetechnologywaslargelymanufacturedonwoodandbone,usuallynotpreserved(Osgood,1937;Kentetal.,1964).PrinceWilliamSound,includingtheWhittierarea,wasinhabitedbythePacificEskimo.Site-specificsurveyswouldbenecessaryinallsitinglocationsselectedforthisalternativeinordertoproperlyassessexistingculturalresources.0.1.3.3CombinedHydro~ThermalGenerationScenario0.1.3.3.1JohnsonNositesarereported(listedinAHRSfiles)fromthedesignateddamsiteorupstream(Smith,1984).Althoughnospecificsurveysofthisalternativehavebeenconductedtodate,theUpperTananaregioningeneralhasbeensubjecttosomestudy,andseveralsignificantsiteshavebeendiscovered(Finn-Yarborough,1975).OneofthemostimportantregionalsitesisDixthada(Mansfieldvillagearea)whichcontainshistoricandprehistoricAthapaskanlevels,aswellasanearlierprehistoriccomponent(probablyArcticSmallToolTradition)(Rainey,1940,1953).ThereareseveralsitesatHealyLakeabout20mi(30km)northofthealternativedamsite,includingthestratifiedVillagesite,whichcontainsnumerousprehistoriccomponents(Cook,1969).Twoprehistoric(?)andthreeethnohistoricsitesoccuronthenorthernshoreofLakeGeorge(Smith,1984).Additionalsurveyworkisneededtoassessexistingculturalresources,anditseemslikelythatthisadditionalworkwouldproducenewsignificantsites.0.1.3.3.2KeetnaNositesarepresentlyrecordedontheAHRSmap,andnosurveyshavebeenconductedinthisarea(ExhibitE,Vol.9,Chap.10,p.E-10-12;Smith,1984).Asurveywouldbenecessarytoassessexistingculturalresources.Sinceitoccursinthesameregionastheproposedproject,thisareamaybeasrichinprehistoricandhistoricsitesasthemiddleSusitnaBasin.Thetopographyissimilar,thevalleybeingcanyon-like,anditisconceivablethattheSusitnavolcanictephrastratigraphyispresentaswell.0.1.3.3."3SnowRiverNositesarerecordedontheAHRSmap,andnosurveyshavebeenundertakenatthedesignateddamsiteornearby(ExhibitE,Vol.9,Chap.10,p.E-10-12;Smith,1984).However,atleasttenhistoricsites(includingseveralARRstations,cabins,cemetery,andtrails)areknowninthearea.Asurveywouldbenecessarytoevaluateculturalresources.Giventheproximityofthecoastandthenaturalresourcesofthearea,sitesalongtherivercourse(largelyonthehighsurfacesofthiscanyon-likevalley)andonthelakeshoreseemlikely.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatsurveysinthenearbyBradleyLakeareahavebeenunproductivedespitethesefactors(Steele,1981).0.1.3.3.4BrowneMorethan50sitesareknowninthisarea.Limitedsurveyshavebeenconductedinthepast(Holmes,1975;Plaskett,1976;Hoffecker,1980),someaspartofthenortherntransmissioncorridorstudy(Dixonetal.,1983a,b).Manyoftheknownsitespossessadequatestratigraphy(aeoliansiltandsand)ofvaryingdepth,andrepresentseveralprehistorictraditions,includ-ingAthapaskan(FAI205?),ArcticSmallTool(HEA129),andAmericanPaleoarctic(FAI206).Nohistoricsitesarereported.However,nogeneralsurveyhasbeenconducted,especiallyinthevalleybottomareasandlowerterracesbetweenBrowneandFerry,whicharemostlikelytobeaffectedbytheproposedalternative.Bothterrace-topaeoliandepositsandside-valleyalluvialfansedimentsmaycontainnewsitesinthisportionofthevalley.Additionalsurveyworkisnecessary,therefore.0.1.3.3.5LakeChakachamnaNositesarepresentlyrecordedontheAHRSmapinthisarea,andnoculturalresourcessurveyshavebeenconductedtodate(ExhibitE,Vol.9,Chap.10,p.E-10-11;Smith,1984).Asurveywouldbenecessary,therefore,toproperlyassesstheexistingenvironment.Theproximityoftheareatothecoastanditsavailableresourcessuggestthatsitesarelikelytobepresent.Ontheotherhand,therelativelackofsuitablelakeshoremarginterraininthissteep-walledbasinisanegativefactor.Smallhuntingcampsintheuplandareasseemmorelikely,althoughanadequatestratigraphiccontextmaybeabsent.0.1.3.3.6BelugaRiver,Nenana,andAnchorageCulturalresourcesintheBelugaRiver,Nenana,andAnchorageareasaredescribedinSec-tions0.1.3.1.1,0.1.3.2.2,and0.1.3.1.4,respectively. 0-170.2ENVIRONMENTALIMPACT0.2.1ProposedProject0.2.1.1WatanaDevelopment0.2.1.1.1ConstructionDirectandindirectimpactstoarcheological,historic,andpaleontologicalsiteswouldoccurduringtheconstructionofthedamandassociatedfacilities,andduringtheinundationoftheimpoundmentarea.Indirectimpactstositesalongtheimpoundmentmarginswouldoccurduringthelaterphasesofreservoir-filling,andot~ersitesneartheimpoundmentlimitwouldbesubjecttopotentialimpacts.Directimpactsaredefinedaseffectsthat"occuratthesametimeandplace"astheproposedproject,whileindirectimpactsincludesecondaryadverseeffectswhichare"laterintimeorfartherremovedindistance,butarestillreasonablyforseeable"(36CFR800.3a)."Potentialimpacts"areproducedbylesspredictableancillarydevelopmentsandaredistinguishablefromthosedescribedabove(McGimseyandDavis,1977);forlegalpurposes,theymaybeconsideredasindirectimpacts.Althoughsomelossofsignificantculturalresources(i.e.,thoseeligibleforinclusionintheNationalRegisterofHistoricPlaces)isinevitable,mostimpactswouldbemitigatedbyinvestigation.Investigationinvolvesproblem-oriented studyofsitesthroughexcavationandanalysisofrecoveredmaterial;itisusuallypreferredoveravoidanceand/orprotectiononlywhenthelatterareinsufficient(McGimseyandDavis,1977).Giventheestablishedimportanceofmanyofthesesites(seeSec.0.1.1.4.4),themitigationprocesswouldbelikelytomakeasubstantialpositivecontri-butiontoAlaskanprehistoricandhistoricknowledge.Thelatterislikelytolieintherealmofprehistoricculturalchronology,whichstillretainsmanygaps,becauseoftheunusualqualityofstratigraphicandtemporalcontrolexhibitedbythesesites..AsindicatedinTable0-1,eightarcheologicalsiteswouldbedirectlyimpacted,andsixarcheo-logicalsiteswouldbeindirectlyimpactedduringconstructionoftheproposedWatanadamandassociatedfacilities.Allsitesarelocatedincloseproximitytotheproposeddamsite.Threesiteshavebeensystematicallytestedtodate,andallhavebeenassessedassignificant;othersitesseemlikelytobesignificantaswell.Thirty-sevenarcheologicalandthreehistoric.siteswouldbedirectlyimpactedbyinundationoftheimpoundmentarea.Eighteenarcheologicalandonehistoricsitewouldbeindirectlyimpactedbyeffectsonthereservoirmargins,chieflyincreasedslopeinstability.SitesaregenerallyconcentratedalongtheriverbetweentheunnamedcreekbelowWatanaandJayCreek(seeFig:0-3,sitegroup1),andintheOshetna-Susitnaconfluencearea(seeFig.0-3,sitegroup2).Nineteenofthesesiteshavebeensystematicallytested,andallbutonehavebeenassessedassignifi-cant;undoubtedly,additionalsignificantsiteswillbeidentified,judgingbythehighpropor-tionofsubsurfacelocalitieswithrichinventories(Dixonetal.,1982,1983).ApproximatelytenpaleontologicalsitesalongWatanaCreekwouldbedirectlyimpactedbyinunda-tionofthereservoirarea.Theselocalities,whichhaveproducedfossilplantassemblages,areoflateOligoceneage,andthereforecannotcontainarcheologicalremains(Dixonetal.,1982).FossilfloraassemblagesofthisagearecommoninAlaska(Wolfe,1977).Forthesereasons,thesitesseemunlikelytobesignificant.0.2.1.1.2OperationAdverseeffectstoculturalresourcesduringthisphaseoftheproposedprojectwouldseemlikelytobeconfinedtothecategoryofpotentialimpacts.Theseimpactswouldbetheresultofincreasedaccesstoanduseoftheprojectarea,andwouldvaryaccordingtothenatureandextentofthelatter.Althoughsomedamageduetovandalismtosignificantsitesseemspossible,preservationthroughavoidanceandprotection(amonitoringprograminvolvingperiodicsiteinspectionsbytheappropriateland-managingagency)appearstobeanadequatemitigativemeasure.Sincepreciseassessmentofpotentialimpactsisimpossible,thenumberofsitesplacedinthiscategoryisrelativelysUbjective.Fifty-threearcheologicalsitesarecurrentlyincludedinthepotentialimpactslistforthisportionoftheprojectarea(seeFig.0-3,sitegroup1).Threeofthesesiteshavebeensystematicallytestedanddeterminedtobesignificant(e.g.,TLM139).0.2.1.2DevilCanyonDevelopment0.2.1.2.1ConstructionArcheologicalandhistoricsiteswithintheimpoundmentlimitwouldbesUbjecttodirectandimpacts.Nositesareknownintheareaoftheproposeddamandassociatedfacilities.Althoughsomelossofsignificantculturalresourceswouldbeinevitable,investigationwouldmitigate 0-18Tablea-I.ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:WatanaDevelopmentRecommendedAHRSt1No.TypeSignificanceImpactMitigationTLM015ArcheologicalIndirectTLM016ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM017ArcheologicalDirectTLM018Archeo1ogica1SignificantDirectInvestigationTLM021ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM025ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM026ArcheologicalIndirectTLM028ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM031ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM032ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM033ArcheologicalNotSignificantDirectNoneTLM036ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM037ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM038ArcheologicalSignificantIndirectInvestigationTLM039ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM040ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM042ArcheologicalSignificantIndirectInvestigationTLM043ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM044ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM045ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM046ArcheologicalSignificantPotentialAvoidanceTLM047ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM048ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM049ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM050ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM051ArcheologicalIndirectAvoidanceTLM052ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM053ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM058ArcheologicalDirectTLM059ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM060ArcheologicalDirectTLM061ArcheologicalDirectTLM062ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM063ArcheologicalDirectTLM064ArcheologicalIndirectTLM065ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM066ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM069ArcheologicalSignificantPotentialAvoidanceTLM071HistoricSignificantIndirectPreservationTLM072ArcheologicalDirect 0-19TableO-I.(Continued)RecommendedAHRStlNo.TypeSignificanceImpactMitigationTLM073ArcheologicalIndirectTLM074ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM075ArcheologicalDirectTLM076ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM077ArcheologicalDirectTLM079HistoricSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM080HistoricSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM102ArcheologicalDirectTLM104ArcheologicalDirectTLM115ArcheologicalDirectTLM119ArcheologicalDirectTLM120ArcheologicalIndirectTLM121ArcheologicalIndirectTLM122ArcheologicalIndirectTLM123ArcheologicalIndirectTLM124ArcheologicalIndirectTLM125ArcheologicalIndirectTLM126ArcheologicalDirectTLM127ArcheologicalIndirect,TLM128'ArcheologicalSignificantPotentialAvoidanceTLM129ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM130ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM131ArcheologicalIndirectTLM132ArcheologicalIndirectTLM133ArcheologicalIndirectTLM134ArcheologicalPotentialTLM135ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidance,TLM136ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM137ArcheologicalDirectTLM138ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM139ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM140ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM141ArcheologicalPotential'AvoidanceTLM142ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM143ArcheologicalSignificantIndirectInvestigationTLM144ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM145ArcheologicalIndirectTLM146ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM147ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM148ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM149ArcheoiogicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM150ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM151ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidance 0-20TableO-I.(Continued)RecommendedAHRSt1No.TypeSignificanceImpactMitigationTLM152ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM154ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM159ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM160ArcheologicalIndirectTLM164ArcheologicalIndirectTLM165ArcheologicalDirectTLM166ArcheologicalDirectTLM167ArcheologicalDirectTLM169ArcheologicalDirectTLM170ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM171ArcheologicalDirectTLM172ArcheologicalDirectTLM173ArcheologicalDirectTLM174ArcheologicalDirectTOM175ArcheologicalDirectTLM177Archeo1ogica1DirectTLM180ArcheologicalSignificantIndirectInvestigationTLM181ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM182ArcheologicalDirectTLM183ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM184Archeo1ogica1SignificantDirectInvestigationTLM185ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM186ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM187ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM188ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM189ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM190ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM191ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM192ArcheologicalIndirectTLM193ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM194ArcheologicalDirectTLM195ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM196Paleontological/DirectArcheological[?]TLM197Archeo1ogi.ca1PotentialAvoidanceTLM198ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM199ArcheologicalDirectTLM200ArcheologicalDirectTLM204HistoricDirectTLM206ArcheologicalDirectTLM207ArcheologicalIndirectTLM215ArcheologicalSignificantDirectInvestigationTLM218ArcheologicalDirectTLM219A~~h~o~ogica)PotentialAvoidance>;';t1AHRS=AlaskaHistoricResourcesSurvey.--- 0-21mostadverseeffectsandwouldprobablymakeacontributiontothestudyofAlaskanprehistoryandhistory.Fivearcheologicalandtwohistoricsitesinthereservoirareawouldbesubjecttodirectimpacts(Table0-2).Onearcheologicalsitewouldbeexposedtoindirectimpact.ThesesitesoccurintheareabetweenthemouthsofFogandTsusenaCreeks(theyarenotassignedtoaspecificsitegroup).Threeofthemhaveb.eensystematicallytested,andallwereidentifiedassignificant(Dixonetal.,1982,1983).Table0-2.ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:DevilCanyonDevelopmentAHRSt1No.TLM020TLM022TLM023TLM024TLM027TLM029TLM030TLM034TLM041TLM118TLM178TypeHistoricArcheologicalHistoricArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalHistoricSignificanceSignificantSignificantSignificantImpactPotentialDirectDirectDirectDirectDirectIndirectDirectPotentialPotentialDirectRecommendedMitigationAvoidanceInvestigationInvestigationInvestigationAvoidanceAvoidancet1AHRS=AlaskaHistoricResourcesSurvey.0.2.1.2.2OperationTwoarcheologicalandonehistoricsitewouldbesubjecttopotentialimpactduringtheopera-tionphase.Preservationthroughavoidanceandprotection(monitoring)wouldseemadequatetomitigatedamagetothearcheologicalsite(locatedonDevilCreek),butprobablynottothehistoricsite,a19thcenturyrockinscriptionneartheproposedsubstation.Itisnotyetclear,however,whetherthesesitesaresignificant.0.2.1.3AccessRoutes0.2.1.3.1DenaliHighwaytoWatanaCONSTRUCTIONArcheologicalsitesonornearthisproposedroutewouldbesubjecttodirectimpactsduetoborrowpitexcavation,andtoindirectimpactsduetogreatlyincreasedaccesstotheareaduringconstruction.Nohistoricorpaleontologicalsitesareknowninthisportion oftheprojectarea.Acombinationofpreservationthroughavoidanceand,wherenecessary,investi-gation,wouldprobablymitigatemostadverseeffects.Oneormoresitesmayprovetobesigni-ficant,althoughasawholethisgroupwouldbelesslikelytomakeanimportantcontributiontoAlaskanprehistory.Foursiteswouldbeexposedtodirectimpacts,andfoursitestoindirectimpactsduringtheconstructionphase(Table0-3).TheformerarelocatedalongorneartheproposedrouteatMP25-27andMP35;thelatterareconcentratedaroundMP28,within0.25mi(0.4km)ofthecenterline.AllsiteswiththeexceptionofTLM153are'partoftheDeadman-BigLakesitegroup(seeFig.0-3,sitegroup3).Noneofthesesiteshasbeensystematicallytestedtodate;itappearsunlikelythatmany,ifany,ofthesesiteswillbeassessedassignificant,duetotheirlargelysurficialcharacter(seeSec.0.1.1.4.2).Eightarcheologicalsiteswouldbesubjecttopotentialimpactduetoincreasedaccesstothisarea.(Theirdistancefromtheproposedaccessroutewouldmakeimpactsduringconstructionlesslikely.)Preservationbyavoidance,combinedwithamonitoringprogram,wouldmitigate 0-22Table0-3.ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:AccessRoutesAHRSt!No.TypeSignificanceImpactt2RecommendedMitigationDenaliHighwaytoWatanaTLM098TLM099TLM116TLM117TLM153TLM155TLM168HEA174HEA176HEA180HEA181HEA182HEA183HEA184HEA185HEA211WatanatoDevilTLM101TLM103TLM106TLM107TLM108TLM109TLM110TLM111TLM112TLM113WatanatoDevilTLM114TLM214ArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalCanyonArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalArcheologicalCanyon(continued)ArcheologicalArcheologicalPotentialPotentialPotentialIndirectDirect*IndirectIndirectPotentialPotentialIndirectDirect*Direct*PotentialPotentialPotentialDirect*PotentialDirect*Direct*Direct*Direct*Direct*Direct*Direct*PotentialDirect*Direct*PotentialAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceAvoidanceRailAccesstoDevilCanyonTLM005HistoricTLM006HistoricPotentialPotentialAvoidanceAvoidancet1AHRS=AlaskaHistoricResourcesSurvey.t2u*uidentifiesasitethatislocatedinaproposedaccessrouteborrowsite. 0-23mostadverseeffectstoanysignificantsites.Fiveofthesesitesoccurwithin2mi(3.3km)oftheproposedroute,betweenMP24-27,whiletwoarelocatedontheeastshoreofDeadmanLake,andonewithin3,000ft(900m)oftheroutenearMP37(seeFig.0-3,sitegroup3).Noneofthesesiteshasbeensystematicallytested;itappearsunlikelythatmany,ifany,willprovetobesignificant,duetotheirlargelysurficialcharacter(seeSec.0.1.1.4.2).OPERATIONAnyofthe16sitesdescribedabovenotinvestigatedduringconstructionphasemitigationwouldbeexposedtopotentialimpacts,duetoincreasedaccesstothearea,duringtheoperationphase.Preservationthroughavoidance(coupledwithamonitoringprogram)wouldmitigatemostimpactstoanysignificantsites.0.2.1.3.2Watana-to-DevilCanyonRouteCONSTRUCTIONNinearcheologicalsitesalongthisproposedroutewouldbeexposedtodirectimpactduetoexcavationofaccessroadborrowpits.Onearcheologicalsite[locatedwithin0.25mi(0.4km)ofthecenterline]wouldbesubjecttoindirectimpactbecauseofgreatlyincreasedaccesstothearea.Anothertwoarcheologicalsites[locatedwithin1mi(1.7km)ofthecenterline]wouldbeexposedtopotentialimpact,duetoincreasedaccess.Preservationthroughavoidance,coupledwithamonitoringprogram,andinvestigation,wherenecessary,wouldmitigatemostadverseeffects.Thesesitesaresituatedatvariouspointsalongtheproposedroute,betweenPortageandTsusenacreeks(seeFig.0-3,sitegroup5).Noneofthemhasbeensystematicallytestedtodate,andonlyonesite(TLM110)presentlyappearstobepotentiallysignificant.OPERATIONAnysites(ofthe12discussed'above)notthoroughlyexcavatedaspartoftheconstructionphasemitigationprocesswouldbeexposedtopotentialimpactsduetoincreasedaccesstothearea.Preservationthroughavoidanceandmonitoringwouldbesufficienttolimitanyfurtheradverseeffects.0.2.1.3.3RailAccesstoDevilCanyonThisareahasbeensUbjecttosensitivitymapping,yieldingtwohistoricsites(TLM005andTLM006,anARRstationandbridgerespectively)(Baconetal.,1982;Dixonetal.,1984).Thesesiteswouldbeexposedtopotentialimpacts.Preservationthroughavoidanceisrecommen-ded.0.2.1.4PowerTransmissionFacilities0.2.1.4.1Dams-to-GoldCreekSegmentCONSTRUCTIONTwoarcheologicalandtwohistoricsiteslocatedalongthisproposedtransmissionline[i.e.,within0.25mi(0.4km)ofthecenterline]wouldbepotentiallyimpactedbyincreasedaccesstothearea(Table0~4).Preservationthroughavoidance,combinedwithamonitoringprogram,wouldmit igatemostadverseeffectstosignificantculturalresources.Thetwoarcheo1ogica1sitesarelocatedeastofDevilCreek,nearMP19ontheproposedWatana-DevilCanyonaccessroad.ThetwohistoricsitesareAlaskaRailroadstructures,situatedatGoldCreek.Athirdarcheo-logicalsite(TLM018),locatedwithinadirectimpactareaattheproposedWatanaCampwouldbedirectlyimpactedbyconstructionactivity.OnlyTLM018hasbeenassessedforsignificance(withpositiveresults),althoughanotherarcheologicalsite(TLM110)mayalsobefoundsigni-ficant.OPERATIONAnysitesnotthoroughlyexcavatedaspartoftheconstructionphasemitigationprocesswouldcontinuetobeexposedtopotentialimpactsduetoincreasedaccess.Itispossiblethatitwouldbenecessarytocontinueaculturalresourcesmonitoringprogram,shouldanysignificantsitesfallintothiscategory.I0.2.1.4.2GoldCreek-to-FairbanksSegmentCONSTRUCTIONThreeculturalresourcesitesalongtheproposedGoldCreek-to-Fairbankstransmissionroutewouldbeexposedtopotentialimpactduetoincreasedaccess(Table0-4);theyareconcentratedinthenorthernfoothillsoftheAlaskaRangenearHealyandarelocatedwithin0.25mi(0.4km) 0-24Table0-4.ExpectedImpactsandRecommendedMitigation:PowerTransmissionFacilitiesRecommendedAHRSt1No.TypeSignificanceImpactMitigationDams-to-Go1dCreekSegmentTLM005HistoricPotentialAvoidanceTLM006HistoricPotentialAvoidanceTLM018ArcheologicalSignificantDirectAvoidanceTLMnoArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceTLM112ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceGoldCreek-to-FairbanksSegmentHEA012ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceHEA038ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidanceGoldCreek-to-AnchorageSegmentTVO014ArcheologicalPotentialAvoidancet1AHRS=AlaskaHistoricResourcesSurvey.ofthecenterline(Dixoneta1.,1984).Althoughnositeshavebeensystematicallytestedyet,severalseemlikelytobejudgedsignificant(duetotheirrelativelygoodstratigraphiccontext).Additionalsurveyisnecessary.Preservationthroughavoidanceandmonitoring,withinvestiga-tionwherenecessary,wouldlimitadverseeffects,althoughsomelossofsignificantculturalresourceswouldbequitepossible,giventheimportanceofanumberofsitesinthearea.Miti-gativeinvestigationcouldmakeamodestcontributiontoknowledgeofAlaskanprehistory.OPERATIONAnysitesnotthoroughlyexcavatedduringtheconstructionphasemitigationprocesswouldcontinuetobesubjecttopotentialimpactsduetoincreasedaccess.Itispossiblethatitwouldbenecessarytocontinueprotectivemeasuresthroughavoidanceandmonitoringforanysignificantsitesinthiscategory.0.2.1.4.3GoldCreek-to-AnchorageSegmentCONSTRUCTIONArcheologicalandhistoricsitesalongtheproposedGoldCreek-Anchoragetransmissioncorridorwouldbesubjectatleasttopotentialimpact,duetoincreasedaccess;additionaldesigndetailsareneededtoassessfurtherpossibleimpacts(ExhibitE,Vol.7,Chap.4,p.E-4-127).ElevenarcheologicalandtwohistoricsiteshavebeenlocatedalongtheIntertieRoute(Table0-4),allconcentratedinthesouthernfoothillsontheAlaskaRange(Baconetal.,1982).Noneofthesesiteshasbeensystematicallytested;somemaybejudgedsignificant.Sensitivitymappingindicatesthatat1eastonearcheo1ogica1siteoccursalongtheproposedWillow-Anchoragesegment[within0.25mi(0.4km)ofthecenterline];furtherdetailsarenotavailableatthistime(Dixoneta1.,1983).Preservationthroughavoidance,withamonitoringprogram,andinvestigationwherenecessary,wouldprobablymitigatemostadverseeffects.Atthepresenttime,thereappeartobefewpotentiallysignificantsitesinthisportionoftheprojectarea.OPERATIONAnysitesnotthoroughlyexcavatedduringtheconstructionphasemitigationprocesswouldcontinuetobesubjecttopotentialimpactduetoincreasedaccess.Itispossiblethatitwouldbenecessarytomaintainprotectivemeasuresthroughavoidanceandmonitoringforanysignificantsitesinthiscategory. 0-250.2.2SusitnaDevelopmentAlternatives0.2.2.1AlternativeDamLocationsandDesigns0.2.2.1.1WatanaI-DevilCanyonImpacts(duringtheconstructionphase)to'anumberofarcheological(butnothistoric)siteswouldbealteredbythereductionoftheproposedWatanareservoirlevel.OnthesouthernsideoftheSusitnaRiver,oppositethemouthofWatanaCreek,11sites(TLM064,120, 121,122, 123,124,125, 127, 131, 132,and133)whichwouldoccupyindirectimpactareasundertheproposedproject,wouldinsteadbesubjectonlytopotentialimpact.Onesite(TLM130)wouldoccurinanindirectorpotentialimpactzone,rathertl~nadirectimpactarea.IntheOshetna-Susitnaconfluencearea,foursites(TLM026,042,073,and207)wouldoccupypotentialratherthanindirectimpactzones,whileonesite(TLM196)wouldbesubjecttoindirectorpotentialimpact,ratherthandirectimpact.Fiveothersitesinscatteredloca-tions(seeSec.0.1.2.1.1)wouldacquirealteredimpactstatus.Threeofthem(TLM119,177,and218)wouldoccurinindirectorpotential(ratherthandirect)impactareas,whiletwo(TLM038and145)wouldbeshiftedfromindirecttopotentialimpactzones.Threeofthe22affectedsitesdescribedabovehavebeensystematicallytestedandassessedassignificant.Atleastsixothersitesappearlikelytobesignificant(seediscussioninSec.0.1.2.1.1).AllotherarcheologicalandhistoricsiteswouldbesubjecttothesameimpactsunderthisproposedalternativeasthosedescribedfortheproposedprojectinSection0.2.1.1(Watanadevelopment)and0.2.1.2(DevilCanyondevelopment).0.2.2.1.2WatanaI-ModifiedHighDevilCanyonChangesintheimpactstatusofculturalresourcesintheWatanaIalternativearediscussedinSection0.2.2.1.1.ImpactstothealternativeModifiedHighDevilCanyondamandimpoundmentareawouldbethesameasthosedescribedforthisareaundertheproposedproject(seeSec.0.2.1.2).0.2.2.1.3WatanaI-ReregulatingDamChangesintheimpactstatusofculturalresourcesintheWatanaIalternativearediscussedinSection0.2.2.1.1.ImpactsfromtheReregulatingdamalternativewouldbethesameasthosedescribedfortheDevilCanyondevelopmentundertheproposedproject(seeSec.0.2.1.2).0.2.2.2AlternativeAccessRoutes0.2.2.2.1Corridor1(North)Culturalresourcesitesalongtheproposednorthcorridorwouldbesubjecttodirect,indirect,andpotentialimpactsduetoroadconstruction,borrowsiteexcavation,andincreasedaccesstothearea.Mostimpactswouldprobablybemitigatedbypreservationthroughavoidance.Few,ifany,ofthesitesfoundtodateinthisproposedcorridor(chieflysurficialarcheologicallocalities)appearlikelytobeassessedassignificant(seeSec.0.1.1.4.2).0.2.2.2.2Corridor2(South)Noculturalresourcesarepresentlyknownalongthisproposedcorridor,andtheareaappearstohave1imitedpotentialforsignificantsites.Preservationthroughavoidancewouldprobablymitigatemostimpactstoanysignificantsitesdiscoveredalongtheproposedrouteoritsassoci-atedborrowsites.0.2,2.2.3Corridor3(Denali-North)CulturalresourcesalongtheproposedDenali-northcorridorwouldbeexposedtodirect,indirect,andpotentialimpactsduetoroadconstruction,borrowsiteexcavation,andincreasedaccesstothearea.Mostimpactswouldprobablybemitigatedbypreservationthroughavoidance.Thesitesknowntodatealongthisproposedcorridor(chieflysurficialarcheologicalsites)containfew,ifany,significantlocalities(seeSec.0.1.1.4.2).'0.2.2.3AlternativePowerTransmissionRoutes,.Impactstoculturalresourceson"thealternative'transmission1inerouteswouldprobablynotva,'ysignificantlyfromthoseoftheproposedproject.Archeologicalandhistoricsiteswithin0.25mi(0.4km)ofthecenterlinewouldbeatleastpotentiallyimpactedduringtheconstruc-tionphasebyincreasedaccesstothearea.Preservationthroughavoidance,combinedwithamonitoringprogramwouldmitigatemostimpactstosignificantsites. 0-26AlongtheGoldCreek-to-Fairbankssegment,severalalternativerouteswouldpotentiallyimpactanumberofarcheologicalsitesintheHealyarea.AlternativeNo.3wouldimpactsixsites[HEA128,139,141,142,FAI141,142],whileNo.4wouldimpactthreesites[FAI143,144,145].Thesesitesappeartobelargelysurficial,andseemunlikelytobesignificant.Alter-nativeNo.10wouldimpactonesite(FAI214),whichcontainssubsurfaceremainsandmaybesignificant.Additionalsurveywouldalmostcertainlyproducemoresitesinimpactareas.AlongtheGoldCreek-to-Anchoragesegment,therearealsoseveralalternativerouteswhichwouldpotentiallyimpactsomeculturalresourcesites(chieflyhistoric)intheAnchoragearea.AlternativesNo.4,7,and16wouldimpactonesiteeachCANC245,052,and118respectively).AlternativeNo.15wouldimpacttwosites(ANC082,096),andNo.17wouldimpactthreesites(ANC077, 079,099).Manyofthesesitesareprobablysignificant.Additionalsurveywouldundoubtedlyproducemoresitesinimpactareas.0.2.2.4AlternativeBorrowSitesArcheologicalandhistoricsiteswouldbesubjecttodirectandindirectimpactsinborrowsitesC,E,andF.Therewouldbenoimpactstoculturalresourcesintheremainingborrowareas.Mostimpactstosignificantsiteswouldprobablybemitigatedbyinvestigation.BorrowsiteCcontains15archeologicalsites,allofwhichwouldbesubjecttodirectimpactduetoexcavationoftheproposedpitarea.Anadditionalfivearcheologicalsitesarelocatedalongitsmargins(includingonesitelocatedinproposedborrowsiteF),andseemlikelytobeexposedtoindirectimpactduetodestabilizedslopesandincreasederosion.Atleastonesiteissignificant,andothersarelikelytobeassessedassignificantalso.BorrowsiteEcontainstwoarcheologicalsitesandonehistoricalsitethatwouldbesubjecttodirectimpactduetoexcavation.(ThesesitesalsooccurwithintheproposedDevilCanyonimpoundmentarea,whichconstitutesadirectimpactzoneaswell.)Atleastonesitehasalreadybeentermedsignificant.BorrowsiteFcontainseightarcheologicalandonehistoricsite.Allsiteswouldbeexposedtodirectimpactduetoexcavation.Twoadditionalarcheologicalsitesarelocatedalongitsmargins(includingoneinproposedborrowsiteC),andseemlikelytobesubjecttoindirectimpactduetodestabilizedslopesandincreasederosion.Noneofthesesiteshasbeenassessedforsignificancetodate,butitislikelythatseveralwillbetermedsignificant.REFERENCESFORAPPENDIX0Ager,T.A.1975.LateQuaternaryEnvironmentalHistoryoftheTananaValley,Alaska.OhioStateUniversityInstituteofPolarStudiesReport54.Columbus,OH.177pp.Anderson,D.D.1968.AStoneAgecampsiteatthegatewaytoAmerica.ScientificAmerican218(6):24-33.Anderson,D. 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