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BEFORE THE
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION
APPLICATION FOR LICENSE FOR MAJOR PROJECT
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
VOLUME 28
MAN-IN-THE•ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP}
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
ARLIS
Alaska Resources
Lihmry & Infonnat10n Semces
Ancboraa;~~ Alaska
JULY1983
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY -
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MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
Prepared for
Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture
Prepared by
Oliver Scott Goldsmith, P.I.
Teresa Hull
Lee Huskey
Gunnar Knapp
·Brian Reeder
Karen White
Institute of Social and Economic Research
U~iversity of Alaska
June 1983
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Documentation Guide . . . . • . . . . . .
Creation of the Projections . . • . . . .
Historical Overview of the Alaska Economy
Appendix A. ISER MAP Economic Modeling System:
Scenario Generator Model
A.l Organization
A.2 Use .•
A.3 Program Description
Appendix B. ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model: Economic
and Fiscal Modules
B.l
B.2
B.3
B.4
B.S
B.6
B.7
B.8
B.9
B.lO
B.ll
Introduction
Economic Module Description
Fiscal Module Description . •
Input Variables . .
Variable and Parameter Name Conventions
Parameter Values . .
Validation and Properties
Input Data Sources
Programs for Operations
Adjustments for Simulation
Key to Regressions . . .
Appendix C. ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model:
Population Module
C.l Description .
C.2 Flow Diagram
C.3 Variable Names
C.4 Symbol Dictionary
C.S Parameter Definitions
C.6 Coefficients
C.7 Input Definitions ...
C.8 Input Data Sources
C.9 Structural Description
C.lO Regression Coefficients
C.l1 Parameter Values
C.12 Validation . . . .
1
7
8
A-3
A-9
A-19
B-1
B-5
B-31
B-63
B-68
B-73
B-79
B-95
B-105
B-107
B-111
C-1
C-4
C-5
C-8
C-9
C-11
C-12
C-13
C-14
C-17
C-18
C-27
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Appendix D. ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model:
Household Formation Module
D.l Description ....... ·. . . . .. .
0.2 Parameter Assumptions . . . . . . .. .
D.3 Projections Alaskan Households in the Future
Appendix E. ISER MAP Economic Modeling System:
Regionalization Model
E.l Model Description
E.2 Flow Diagram
E.3 Inputs .....
E.4 Variable and Parameter Names
E.S Parameter Values
E.6 Model Validation
E.7 Programs for Model Use
Appendix F. ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model:
Variable and Parameter Dictionary
Appendix G. ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model:
Listing -Including Parameters
Appendix H. ISER MAP Economic Model: Stochastic Equations
Appendix I. ISER MAP Regionalization Model:
Listing -Including Parameters
Appendix J. Sensitivity Analysis Using Alaska Economic Model
Appendix K. Scenario Documentation
K.l Summary of Base Case Assumptions ..... .
K.2 Aggregate Output of Scenario Generator
K.3 Case Files Used to Create Base Case Scenario
Appendix L. ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model: Input Variables
L.1 Exogenous Variables
L.2 Startup Variables .
Appendix M. ISER MAP Regionalization Model: Input Variables
M.l Exogenous Variables
M.2 Startup Variables .
D-1
D-4
D-8
E-1
E-5
E-7
E-9
E-13
E-25
E-29
K-1
K-11
K-17
L-1
L-19
K-1
K-11
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Appendix N. ISER MAP Model Output for Harza Ebasco
Susitna Joint Venture
N.l 2~ Annual Decline in Oil Price
N.2 1~ Annual Decline in Oil Price
N.3 Constant Oil Price ..... .
N.4 2 ~Annual Increase in Oil Price
N.S Sherman Clark Associates--No Supply Disruption Case
N.6. Sherman Clark Associates--Base Case .....
N.7. Alaska Department of Revenue--Average Price .
N.8 Alaska Department of Revenue--50th Percentile
N.9 Alaska Department of Revenue--30th Percentile
N.lO Data Resources Institute--June Oil Price Forecast
N.ll Selected Historical Data Series ........ .
Appendix 0.
Appendix P.
Previous ISER Studies of Railbelt
Electricity Requirements
Bibliography
N-3
N-9
N-15
N-21
N-27
N-33
N-37
N-45
N-51
N-57
N-63
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MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
Introduction
This report is the culmination of an effort to completely
document the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) Man-
in-the-Arctic Program (MAP) Modeling System and simultaneously to
develop timely projections of economic activity for Alaska's
Railbelt. The purpose of the study is to provide input into the
process of planning for the electric power requirements for the
Railbelt and, specifically, to support the state licensing
application before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
for the Sus i tna hydroelectric project. Funding for the study was
provided initially by the Alaska Power Authority (APA), and
subsequently by Harza-Ebasco Susi tna Joint Venture when they were
retained by APA to complete the licensing application and plan the
project. Harza-Ebasco Susi tna Joint Venture provided coordination
and guidance to ISER during the performance of the Modeling System
update.
This introduction serves three purposes. The first is to
provide the reader with a guide to the model documentation which
forms the bulk of this report. The second is to provide a
description of how the projections used in the licensing application
were prepared. The third is to provide the reader with a short
historical review of the sources of growth of the Alaska economy and
the implication of this growth for planning purposes.
Documentation Guide
The ISER MAP Economic Modeling System produces annual
projections of a large variety of economic and demographic variables
based upon user inputs representing the development of basic
industry and state government fiscal behavior. The system consists
of a number of computerized models; computer programs for model
creation and utilization; parameter and variable files for model
implementation; and data sets for creation and estimation of model
variables and parameters. All model components are written in the
computer language called TROLLl and are physically located on a
computer in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which is accessible on an
interactive basis through the TELENET telecommications network by a
local phone number in Anchorage.
lThe interested reader is referred to TROLL Users Guide, MIT
Center for Computational Research in Economics and Management
Science, 1980, for a detailed description of TROLL capabilities.
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M~y 1983
The overview of the modeling system presented in Figure 1 shows
that at the heart of the system is the statewide economic model
{current version entitled A83.2). Although virtually always run as
a unit, the model is divided into four modules for convenience in
model construction, updating, and documentation. Three of the
modules--economic, fiscal, and population--are simultaneous, while
the fourth--household formation--is simply a derivative of the
population module. Not depicted in Figure 1 are some other
derivative modules of the statewide economic model which are not
used in the current project, but which, for completeness, do appear
in this documentation. These are the following--Native economic
activity module; definitional equation module (converts variables
into real and real per capita terms); and income distribution model
links. (The income distribution model is simultaneous with the
economic model, but currently nonoperational.)
General module descriptions, as well as specific structural
descriptions of each equation, can be found in the following
locations in the documentation: economic module-B.! and 8.2; fiscal
module-B.! and B.3; population module-C.l, C.2, and C.9; household
formation module-D.!. A complete listing of all equations forming
the economic model (economic, fiscal, population, and household
formation modules) appears in Appendix G, which also lists the names
of all of the variables and parameters used in the model.
Because of the large number of different variables and
parameters used in the model, a complete dictionary has been
prepared (Appendix F) which lists and defines variables and
parameters and, where appropriate, indicates the source for the
historical values used in model construction and utilization. Since
the names assigned to the variables display some internal, albeit
obscure, logic, the naming conventions are summarized for the
economic and fiscal modules in section B. 5 and for the population
and household formation modules in sections C.3, C.4, C.S, and C.6.
The economic model is operationalized by assigning specific
values to model and coefficient parameters by providing a set of
startup values for those variables that are the primary model output
(startup values for the endogenous variables are a requirement of
the computer simulation algorithm), and by entering into the
computer for every simulation year a specific value for each
variable which is exogenous to the model. (In the TROLL system,
variables in the POLICY category are computationally identical to
those in the EXOGENOUS category.)
Model and coefficient parameters consist of all constants which
assume a fixed value throughout all the years of a particular
simulation. They differ in the manner in which they are developed
because the coefficient category is restricted to those constants
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ISER MAP ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM
Scenario
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Input Variables:
Generator !-~~IE-----------~
Model
• Industrial Case
files-
• Petroleum
Revenue
Forecasts
Input Variables: r-t:======;-----t • U.S. Inflation Rate
Statewide
Economic Model
• Economic Module
• Fiscal Module
• Population Module
• Household
Formation Module
• U.S. Unemploy-
ment Rate
• Others
Parameters:
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• State Fiscal Policy
Parameters
• Stochastic -j
Regionalization
'-----1..-t
Model
Parameters
• Nonstochastic
Parameters
...___ ____ -+ Nonstochastic
Parameters
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which are developed stochastically by regression analysis and the
parameter category includes all other constants. Regress ion
analysis is utilized where time series data is available for
developing historical statistical relationships among variables.
This is generally the case for the economic and fiscal modules for
which the regression equations used in coefficient development are
presented in Appendix H and briefly summarized in, section B .11. The
population module contains one stochastic equation shown .in section
C.lO. The household formation module contains no stochastic
equations.
Parameters take the place of coefficients in the household
formation module, most of the population module, and in particular
instances in the economic and fiscal modules, and are used either
when no historical time series of sufficient length or continuity is
available, or where structural change has occurred such that the
historical relationships do not reflect expected future behavioral
relationships. The parameters (as well as the coefficients) for the
economic model are listed in Appendix G. A description of the
sources and methods used in the derivation of all parameter values
(as well as the values themselves) is included for each module as
follows: economic and fiscal modules--8.6; population module--C.ll;
and household formation module--0.2 And 0.3.
After model construction and prior to simulation, the model is
initialized by adjusting the values of certain parameters and
coefficients so that the output for the most important variables
corresponds as closely as possible to the most current actually-
observable historical values. All such adjustments currently used
are documented and explained in section B.lO.
Initial-year startup values for primary output variables
(ENDOGENOUS) are, in most cases, immaterial to the final results of
simulation. The computer algorithm simply requires a starting value
for each variable to initiate the search for a solution. (As a
default, the computer can use a value for the previous year to
initiate the search.)
The choice of startup values is only important for those
variables which enter equations with a time lag because these
initial conditions form a part of the datum for the current year
model solution. This situation occurs most frequently in the
population module where the population in year t, before migration,
is equal to the surviving population from the year t-1. These
startup values must be chosen with care to ensure that the model
begins on the correct trajectory. In all instances where lagged
startup values are required, they come directly from historical
data, and this is also the case for the majority of the noncritical
startup variables. Since the model is currently set to begin
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projective simulation with the year 1981, startup values for
ENDOGENOUS variables for the years 1980 and 1981 are necessary.
These are presented in section L.2.
The final element necessary to run the state economic model
consists of values for all the exogenous variables (in TROLL
terminology, this includes both EXOGENOUS and POLICY variables).
This input data is of two general types--variables which have values
assumed outs ide the model, and a small number of parameters which
change in value from year to year. The variables can further be
subdivided into economic variables and fiscal policy variables with
the former consisting of basic sector employment levels and various
state and local revenues, and the latter consisting of state
expenditure policy switches controlling such policies as the
disposition of Permanent Fund earnings. A complete listing of these
input variables for the economic model is contained in section
8.4.2 The source for the default values for each input variable
is described in section 8.8, and the default values themselves are
all presented in section L.l. A subset of these input variables may
be, at the discretion of the user, provided by the scenario
generation model described below. In all of the simulations
presented in this report, certain of the default input variables,
primarily various petroleum revenues, are superseded by alternative
input data sets. This process is described in the following section
of the introduction.
Throughout the model development stage and before simulation,
the model is tested for its ability to accurately represent the
structure of the economy and population, as well as to monitor its
properties. These tests are described in detail in section B. 7 for
the economic and fiscal modules; in section C.l2 for the population
module; and in 0.3 for the household formation module. One
particularly important element of this continuous testing and
monitoring of the model is sensitivity analysis, in which the
implications of model performance to changes in individual input
variables, parameter and coefficient values, and equation structures
are assessed. A report on the most current set of sensitivity
analyses is presented as Appendix J.
The regionalization model (current version A83.CD) uses selected
output from the ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model to produce regional
2The population module is simultaneous with the economic and
fiscal modules but can be detached and run separately. The input
variables which would be required to accomplish this (and which are
normally supplied by the economic module) are presented in sections
C. 7 and c. 3.
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projections of employment, population, and households. The regional
projections are consistent with and cover the same range of years as
the statewide model because the regionalization model is essentially
a nonstochastic algorithm for allocating statewide employment,
population, and households to the regional level. As such, it is
not an integral part of the state model which can be, and often is,
used without the regionalization model.
A complete description of the regionalization model is contained
in Appendix E, including a general description in sections E.l and
E.2, variable and parameter names in section E.4, and procedures for
model validation in section E.6. A complete listing of all model
equations is contained in Appendix I which also includes a listing
of all the parameter values. (Since the model is nonstochastic, it
contains no coefficients.) The derivation of all the parameter
values is explained in section E.5.
The regionalization model is complicated by the fact that it
requires input variables from two sources in order to produce a
regional allocation of a statewide simulation. Control totals from
a statewide simulation for population, employment, and households
must be provided by the output of the economic model. In addition,
regionalized basic and government sector employment assumption
consistent with the statewide assumptions used in the corresponding
statewide simulation are required. Complete documentation of what
these variables consist of, how these input variables are obtained,
and how consistency between the state and regionalization models is
assured is contained in sections E.3 and E.7.
a procedure for the
its input data will
particular statewide
generator. One such
Because the regionalization model is
allocation of statewide simulation results,
consist of a portion of the output of a
simulation as well as output of the scenario
input data set is presented in section M.l.
startup values are needed for model simulation.
in section M.2.
A small number of
These are presented
The choice of input variables to produce a simulation of the
economic model and, if required, the corresponding regionalized
allocation, rests with the model user. The scenario generator model
is usually utilized for the purpose of producing the most important
of these variables in a consistent and convenient manner. It ls
described in Appendix A. The output of the scenario generator is,
however, neither necessary nor sufficient to provide all the input
data necessary to run either the economic model or the
regionalization model.
The scenario generator is a program which aggregates a series of
case files into an economic scenario. The individual case files
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describe, primarily with employment variables, the economic
dimensions of particular industries such as fish harvesting,
individual large projects such as a gas pipeline, and petroleum
revenue projections. A large library of case files is maintained on
the computer and successive scenarios can be produced by choosing
different case files.
The output of the scenario generator is a set of sixteen basic
employment, petroleum, and tourist visitor data series which conform
to input requirements of the state model, as well as a cons is tent
set of forty regionalized employment variables which conform to
input requirements of a corresponding run of the regionalization
mode1.3
The control scenario produced by the scenario generator for this
current study is described in section K.l in the form of a list of
economic assumptions for each basic industry. The output of the
scenario generator for use in the economic model using these
economic assumptions is shown in section K.2 and also included as a
subset of the variables listed in. section L.l. The corresponding
output for use in the regionalization model is shown as a subset of
the data in section M.l. The input for the regionalization model,
in the form of a description of each of the case files used to form
the control scenario, is contained in section K.3.
Appendix 0 briefly reviews the relation of the current study to
earlier work by ISER in projecting Railbelt electricity demand.
Appendix P is a bibliography of publications and papers relating to
the MAP modeling system.
A substantial computerized data base supports the modeling
system. Documentation of the data base is available on request.
Creation of the Projections
Once the models have been constructed, tested, and calibrated,
the parameter and coefficient values have been calculated, and an
input data set (including startup values) has been constructed, the
models can be repeatedly and easily run to simulate future
employment, population, and household levels for the Alaska Railbelt
region. This process is facilitated by a series of programs
especially written for this purpose as described in section B.9 of
this documentation.
For those simulations for which selected inputs and outputs are
presented in Appendix N, selected control input assumptions
described in sections B.4 and B.8 and listed in Appendix K and
3The scenario generator model also provides consistent input
to a new experimental model of the Anchorage economy (ANKMOD) which
is currently in the final stages of development.
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section L.l were overridden. A number of different petroleum
revenue assumptions were chosen by Harza-Ebasco and used as input to
the economic model. In addition, ISER economists altered certain
state economic policy variables in response to different levels of
petroleum revenues to maintain a reasonable mix of public sector
expenditures. The overriding input variables are presented for each
case in Appendix N.4
The sequence of events for a typical simulation is as follows:
First, the Alaska economic model is prepared for simulation by
assembling the model, parameters and coefficients, the control input
data, and the startup data. A portion of the control data (sixteen
variables) is supplied by the scenario generator model, which needs
only to be run when forming a new economic scenario. At this time
any changes are made to the input data (or the parameters,
coefficients, startup data, or model structure) for the particular
simulation to be done. In this study, this involves substitution of
alternative petroleum revenue assumptions and alternative state
fiscal policy parameters. The simulation then occurs and the output
is reviewed. In many instances, the state fiscal policy parameters
need La be adjusted prior to additional model run iterations before
a satisfactory solution is obtained.
When a satisfactory simulation has been completed, the
regionalization model can be run. This requires a subset of the
output of the Alaska economic model as input, as well as input
directly from the scenario generator model (regionalized version of
similar input fed into the Alaska economic model). No other
specific changes are required for completing different simulations.
The output which is provided to the electricity end use Railbelt
energy demand (RED) model comes primarily from the regionalization
model. Only households by age of head and nonagricultural wage and
salary employment enter the RED model directly from the economic
model.
Historical Overview of Alaska Economy
The pattern of economic growth of Alaska is shown in Figure 2,
and is measured by four categories of employment. The growth since
statehood in 1959 has been dramatic, particularly in the 1970s. The
average annual growth rate measured between 1961 and 1980 has been
4In all simulations reported in this document, incremental
power requirements for the Alaska Railbelt are supplied by a
combination of new hydroelectric facilities (Chackachamna and
Bradley Lake), treated exogenously, and new gas turbines,
endogenously.
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FIG.Z:ALASKA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
<THOUSANDS)
-...... -/
1--•
/
I
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-.,./""'-... " / !'--,.__--I/" .--, pUPPC RT / ,/ ..: --7 / v / I ,.---.................. --~.-.---__ _.,.,....,.
~--~------( ;'i'ovEF NMEf\ T /
/' ----:-----
----fo---ri\ ;f="R A c::; ITRllr In 1 R f=" ~
[7 ~ ......-
--j3AS I l~o-
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1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
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4.3 percent, more than double the national average over the same
period. 5
Of particular interest in understanding the possible future
direction of the Alaska economy is the information about past
sources of growth which can be obtained from an examination of the
past behavior of the different categories of employment.
Conventional wisdom is that the economic growth of a region is
dependent upon the growth of its basic sector industries--those
industries for which the region has a comparative advantage in
producing goods and services for export outside the region, such as
manufactured goods. Around these industries cluster support"
industries both for the basic sector and for the labor force
employed in , those industries. Basic sector employment (defined to
include mining, petroleum, fish harvesting, timber harvesting,
manufacturing for export, tourism, agriculture, pipeline
cons true t ion, ope rat ions, and federal governmen t--ci v i1 ian and
military) has grown since statehood, but only by an annualized rate
of 1.2 percent per year, and displayed practically no growth during
the decade of the 1960s. Basic sector employment growth has
contributed to growth in the overall economy both directly and
indirectly through the multiplier process, but clearly by itself it
has not been a significant factor in the rapid economic growth of
the past.
Two important characteristics of basic sector employment in
Alaska are not indicated by the relatively stable level of this
sector during the last twenty years. The first is that the
stability is largely the result of the federal government, which is
the largest employer in the state and which dominates, in numbers,
basic sector employment. In fact, federal employment in Anchorage
is surpassed only by Washington, D.C. (among the BEA Economics
Areas) as a proportion of total employment.6 This component of
basic employment forms a large and stable anchor for the whole
sector.
This is particularly important because of the inherent
instability of the remainder of the basic sector in Alaska. Because
Alaska's remote location and harsh climate result in high production
costs, basic sector activity has historically been confined to the
5The annualized growth in total civilian employment between
1959 and 1980 was 2.0 percent. Valerie Personick, "Industry Output
and Employment: BLS Projections to 1990," Monthly Labor Review,
April 1979, p. 10.
6Arlon Tussing, Lee Huskey, and Tom Singer, "The Place of
Support Sector Growth, Import Substitution, and Structural Change in
Alaska's Economic Development," ISER, February 1983, p. III.3.
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extraction of rich deposits (low average cost of production) of
natural resources. The past pattern has been one of exploitation of
one resource after another--furs, gold, timber, copper, fish--by
nonresident labor and outside capital in a rush to deplete each
resource as rapidly as possible. The result has been an economy
dominated by a succession of booms and busts as new resources were
discovered, extracted, and depleted. Since the basic sector held a
more dominant position in the total economy in past times (for
example, 63 percent of the total in 1961 versus 36 percent in 1980)
than currently, the cyclical nature of basic activity meant that the
whole economy was subject to instability.
Even in the best situations, the production of primary
commodities is highly cyclical. Although the smaller proportional
contribution of basic to total employment today tends to disguise
the cyclical influence of natural resource extraction, it is
important to keep in mind for two reasons. First, the cyclical
nature of primary commodity markets makes it difficult to project
future demand (and price levels); and second, the industries are
heavily dependent upon supplies which are highly uncertain. For
example, very little is known about mineral occurrences in the state
or the dynamics of the different fishery stocks.
The other three employment categories shown in Figure 2 have all
displayed much more rapid employment growth since statehood than the
basic sector. The reasons for their growth reveal much about the
process of economic growth in the state. The infrastructure sector
is loosely defined to include the transportation, communication,
public utility, and construction industries, as well as business
services. Annualized growth in this sector has been 5. 5 percent
since 1961 with a prominent "bulge" during the mid 1970s. This
growth is largely the result of the undeveloped conditions of the
economy prior to statehood combined with the scattered distribution
of population in a huge state with sparse population. Thus, the
level of infrastructure employment necessary to link the population
together is high, and the process of building the infrastructure
itself magnifies employment in this sector in the short run. The
building is both for the purpose of "catching up" to the
infrastructure levels of other regions, and also to meet the needs
of the rapidly expanding Alaskan population. This is reflected in
the fact that state and local government capital outlay per capita
have historically averaged three to five times the national
average.7
An important variable in the future economic growth of the state
is the extent to which this process of infrastructure enrichment
will continue to occur independent of growth in the basic sector.
7u.s. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
Governmental Finances, annual.
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The answer in large part depends upon two factors. The first is the
availability of public capital to fund infrastructure additions.
Particularly in the early years after statehood, the funds to
construct infrastructures came primarily from the federal
government. During the 1970s, state government had been able to
provide an increasing share of the funding for infrastructure as a
result of the receipt of substantial oil revenues.
The second is the future rate of population growth. The faster
this growth occurs, the more infrastructure development is required
and the higher will be construction activity on a per capita basis.
State and local government forms the third sector of the
economy. Employment growth in this sector has been particularly
dramatic since statehood growing at an annualized rate of
8. 2 percent. Interestingly, the rate of increase during the first
dec'ade after statehood--9. 4 percent--exceeds that of the decade of
the 1970s when the state began to receive substantial amounts of oil
revenues. State government revenues currently are derived almost
exclusively from petroleum, and a large proportion of local
government revenues are also dependent upon petroleum through state
transfers and laxes on petroleum property. Consequently, the future
size of this sector of the economy, which is second only to federal
government in numbers employed, is closely tied to the future
receipt of petroleum revenues.
The final category of employment is support, consisting of the
trade, finance, and service sectors of the economy. It has grown on
an annualized basis at approximately the same rate, 8.3 percent, as
state and local government; and like state government, the growth
rate was slightly faster, at 8.6 percent, during the first decade
since statehood. The growth in this sector is only partially in
response to the growth in the other three sectors of the economy.
In 1961, for example, there were nineteen jobs in this sector for
every 100 jobs in the rest of the economy, and if the same ratio
held in 1980, there would be 27 thousand, rather than the
75 thousand support sector jobs which the economy actually provided
in 1980.
This structural change of the economy can be characterized in
three dimensions. First, there has been a change over time in the
market basket of goods consumed within the state. Second, there has
been a change over time in the methods by which support sector goods
and services are produced within the state. Third, there has been a
change over time in the goods and services which are locally
available (import substitution).
These changes have primarily been the result of an increase in
the size of the local market. First, and most obviously, the
population of the state nearly doubled in the first twenty years of
statehood--exhibiting a 2.9 percent annualized growth rate compared
to 1.0 percent for the United States as a whole. Less obvious, but
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more importantly, has been the growth in income. Figure 3 shows the
growth of the average annual wage, and personal income per capita;
both have increased markedly in real terms since statehood. Both
have, in addition, increased in relation to the national average.
This is illustrated in Figure 4, which shows that the Alaska/United
States ratio of real disposable personal income, which historically
hovered around .8, climbed above one briefly in the mid-1970s. The
future direction of this indicator of the strength of the Alaskan
market will be an important determinant of economic growth.
Several other factors have contributed to the structural change
characterized by support sector growth. One is the increasing
stability of the marketplace as measured both by the decreasing
importance of seasonal and cyclical (associated with natural
resource extraction activities) variations in economic activity, and
by increasing wealth of the population. This provides a cushion
which allows a region to support itself independent of wage and
salary income. Alaska's personal income is more dependent on wages
and salaries_ than most other states, but that dependence is
gradually falling as the proportion of income from other sources
increases. Between 1959 and 1980 that proportion more than doubled
from 9 to 19 percent. This increase in market stability makes
investment in support sector businesses less subject to the risks
associated with economic fluctuations.8
A second factor is indicated by Figure 5, which shows the
dramatic increase since statehood in the proportion of the civilian
population which is employed. 9 Between 1961 and 1979, it
increased from 30 to 49 percent of the civilian population. This
accounts for the fact that personal income per capita has
historically grown more rapidly than the average wage rate
(Figure 3). This trend reflects a more market-oriented,
consumption-oriented economy which can sustain a larger support
sector.
One additional factor contributing to the growth of the support
sector has been the downward trend in the ratio of the cost of doing
business in Alaska relative to the U.S. average. Figure 6 shows
that this downward trend has been historically interrupted only
during the mid-1970s when Alyeska oil pipeline construction
generated local inflationary pressures in excess of the national
average.
8An example of this new wealth is the ANCSA transfer of land
and money to the Alaska Natives.
9This measure is only an indication of the trend because
employment is by place of work and population is residence-based.
13
10000
REAL INCOME 9500
PER CAPITA 9000
8500
8000
REAL AVERAGE 7500
ANNUAL WAGE 7000
---65~0
6000
5500
50.00
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
FIG.3:AVG. ANNUAL WAGE & PER CAPITA INC.
(1 967 u. s. $)
I ~~
I \
\
I \
' 1.' \
I -,
/ \.,..-_,.,>
~,
/
/
v/
--//
-r--/
/ ~ v ~
I / --v~ --~
._ /
/
1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1958 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980
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1.5
1. 4
1. 3
1.2
1.1
0.9
0. 8
!7
0. 6
0. 5
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
FIG.4:REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
(ALASKA/US RA TI 0)
v--'"-
' I " I
I ' I J "' I I
I ' v' '
~
/
" " ----._ __ /
/
./ .""' --~'' r-----'
I
L I
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
15
100
90
60
50
40
30
10
1961
Institute of Social
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MAf Documentation
May 1983
FIG.S:PERCENT OF CIVILIANS EMPLOYED
' ./ ----
~ ----------~ -
1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
16
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l. 50
-1. 45
,...
1. 43
1.35
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1. 30
1. 25
,....
I I. 2B i
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1.15
,....
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
FIG.6:RATIO OF ANCHORAGE TO US CPI
~ ~ I'\
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"---1\__
I _j_
1958 1963 19£2 1964 1966 1969 1973 1972 1974 1976 1978 !983 1982
17
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
In sum, the pattern of employment growth in
characteristic of an underdeveloped economy undergoing
change and rapid growth from a large number of causes.
Alaska is
structural
The problem of projecting future economic activity then becomes
one of sorting out those various factors contributing to past growth
and trying to determine both how they will change in the future and
how those changes will affect the growth trajectory of the economy.
The exercise is complicated by the p~or quality of the historical
record (which is a result of this underdevelopment and rapid
growth), which limits our understanding of the quantitative
dimensions of the growth in the past.
It should be clear from this short discussion that there is a
large degree of inherent uncertainty surrounding any projections of
the future size of the Alaskan economy, and that unanticipated rapid
economic change can easily occur. This uncertainty can be reduced,
but not eliminated, by further analysis of the past.
This phenomenon is vividly demonstrated by the unprecedented
growth of the Alaskan economy between 1980 and 1982. Primarily in
response to a more than doubling of oil prices in 1979, employment
increased 14 percent, and population 15 percent over the ensuing
two-year period. The magnitude of the increase was similar to the
growth when the Alyeska pipeline was under construction. Few, if
any, analysts anticipated the rapidity and magnitude of the
conversion of petroleum revenues into economic activity. Most
importantly, this illustrates the dependence of the economy on
natural resource indust~ies and the volatility that dependence
continues to impart to the whole economy.
18
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APPENDIX A
ISER MAP ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM
SCENARIO GENERATOR MODEL
DOCUMENTATION
Introduction
A.l. Organization of the Library Archives
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
A-1
A-3
a.
b.
Input File Archives--The Case Library (SCEN ) ••••
Output File Archives--The Scenario Library (SCENARIO_)
A-6
A-7
A.2. Using the Scenario Generator
a.
b.
c.
Capabilities and Organization •
Instructions for Using &SCENGEN
An Example • • • • • • • • • •
A.3. Creating, Manipulating, and Examining Library Files
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h.
i.
j.
k.
1.
m.
n.
&SETUP •••
&MUNICASE ••
&DELCASE
&DELSCN •
&LKCASE and &OLKCASE
&LKSCN and &OLKSCN
&ADCASE •••
&SUBCASE
&LISTLIB
&DESCLIB
&DESCASE
© CASE
&CASECHEK •
&SCENCHEK
A-9
A-9
A-10
A-ll
A-19
A-19
A-21
A-21
A-22
A-22
A-22
A-23
A-24
A-24
A-24
A-25
A-25
A-25
A-26
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May 1983
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0. Introduction
The scenario generator model consists of a set of data files,
macros, and programs designed to create and manipulate a library of
the various assumptions required for a run of each of the three
major ISER models--the MAP statewide model version A83.2, the
regionalization model version A83.CD, and the Anchorage Municipality
model version BIGMOD.
Part I documents the organization of data files in the archives
related to the scenario generation tasks.
of the scenario generation macro in
Part III then describes a set of macros
for conveniently manipulating, editing,
contained in the library archives.
Part II describes the use
constructing a scenario.
which have been developed
and examining the files
A-2
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May 1983
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A-1. Organization of the Library Archives
Each of the three ISER economic models requires a set of data
series corresponding to each of the variables treated as exogenous
by that model. The scenario generator model provides the most
important of those variables to each model.
Specifically, for use in a run of the MAP statewide model
version A83.2, the scenario generator provides a data series for
each of the sixteen (16) exogenous variables listed in Table A-1.
The scenario generator provides for use 1n a run of the
regionalization model A83.CD a set of assumed data series for each
of the forty (4/)) exogenous variables shown in Table A-2.
(Model A83.CD also requires output from a run of the MAP statewide
model A83.2., although it would be possible to modify the model to
operate independently.)
Finally, the scenario generator provides for use 1n a run of the
Anchorage Municipality model BIGMOD a set of assumed data series for
the forty-six (46) exogenous variables shown in Table A-3.
Currently, a run of model BIGMOD requires output from a run of the
MAP statewide model A83.2, although it would be possible to modify
the model to operate independently.
Variable
EMAGRI
EMP9
EMCNXl
EMCNX2
EMMXl
EMMX2
EMT9X
EMF ISH
EMGM
EMGC
RPTS
RPRY
RPBS
RPPS
RTCSPX
TOURIST
TABLE A.l. EXOGENOUS VARIABLES REQUIRED FOR
MAP STATEWIDE MODEL RUN
Name Description
Agriculture Employment
Mining Employment
High Wage Exogenous Construction Employment
Low Wage Exogenous Construction Employment
High Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment
Low Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment
Exogenous Transportation Employment
Fish Harvesting Employment
Active Duty Military Employment
Civilian Federal Employment
State Production Tax Revenue
State Royalty Income
State Bonus Payment Revenue
State Property Tax Revenue
State Corporate Petroleum Tax Revenue
Tourists Entering Alaska
A-3
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE A-2. EXOGENOUS VARIABLES REQUIRED FOR
REGIONALIZATION MODEL RUN
Variable Description
01
()2
04
05
06
(JB
09
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
21
24
25
26
27
29
Bii
Gii
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
Basic Sector Employment, Region ii
Government Sector Employment, Region ii
Where ii:
Aleutian Islands CD
Anchorage CD
Barrow/N. Slope CD
Bethel CD
Bristol Bay*
Cordova/McCarthy CD
Fairbanks CD
Southeast**
Kenai/Cook Inlet CD
Kobuk CD
Kodiak CD
Kuskokwim CD
Matanuska/Susitna CD
Nome CD
Seward CD
S.E. Fairbanks CD
Upper Yukon CD
Valdez/Chitina/Whittier CD
Wade Hampton CD
Yukon Koyukuk
*Includes Bristol Bay CD and Bristol Bay Borough CD.
**Includes: Angoon CD
Haines CD
Juneau CD
Ketchikan CD
Outer Ketchikan
Prince of Wales
Sitka CD
CD
CD
Skagway-Yakatat CD
Wrangell-Petersburg CD
A-4
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May 1983
TABLE A-3. EXOGENOUS VARIABLES REQUIRED FOR RUN OF
ANCHORAGE MUNICIPALITY MODEL ANKMOD
Variable Description
M.MIL
M.PRX
M.t>t>
M.01
M.l0
M.l3
M.l4
M.2t:l
M.22
M.26
M.29
M.31
M.33
M.36
M.38
M.46
M.84
M.88
M.91
M.92
M.93
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Forestry-Fisheries
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Mining
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Product Manufacturing
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Military Personnel
Proprietors
Unclassified
Agr ic ul tl!r e-
Anchorage, Metal Mining
Anchorage, Oil & Gas Extraction
Anchorage, Nonmet'allic Minerals
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Food Manufacturing
Textile Manufacturing
Paper Manufacturing
Petroleum & Coal
Employment by Place of Work, Anchorage, Leather Product
Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work, Anchorage, Primary Metal
Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work, Anchorage, Electrical Equipment
Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work, Anchorage, Instrument Manufacturing
Employment by Place of Work, Anchorage, Pipeline (Ex. Natural
Gas) Transport
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Employment by Place of Work,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Anchorage,
Museums & Gardens Svcs.
Private Households Svcs.
Federal Civilian Govt.
State Government
Local Government
r.MP.ss* Employment by Place of Work, Region r, Sector ss
*Where r = B
c
D
E
F
G
Matanuska/Susitna Region (Matanuska/Susitna CD)
Southcentral Region (Kenai-Cook Inlet, Kodiak, Valdez/
Chitina/Whittier, Cordova/McCarthy, and Seward CDs)
Interior Region (Fairbanks, Yukon/Koyukuk, and
Upper Yukon CDs)
Southeast Region (Juneau, Ketchikan, Prince of Wales,
Sitka, Wrangell, Petersburg, and Lynn Canal CDs)
Northern Region (Barrow/North Slope, Kobuk, and Nome CDs)
Southwest Region (Aleutian Islands, Bethel, Bristol Bay,
Wade Hampton, and Kuskokwim CDs)
ss = Bl High Wage Basic Sector
B2 Low Wage Basic Sector
G9 Government Sector
PR Proprietor Sector
A-5
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
These scenarios are composed of sets of individual assumptions, or
cases, each of which is itself an archive of individual component
assumptions. These individual components are filed in an archive
called SCEN , which can be considered to be the library from which
scenarios ~y be constructed using the scenario generator. The,
scenario generator combines these cases according to user-specified
instructions into scenarios, which are then filed in an archive
called SCENARIO • The scenarios archived in SCENARIO may be used
directly in running the various ISER economic models.
a. Input File Archives--The Case Library (SCEN )
The SCEN archives contain sets of data files which will be
termed "case;." A "case" may be a particular exogenous development
project, such as the gas pipeline or the Alpetco refinery, or a
particular set of revenue estimates, such as those published by the
Alaska Department of Revenue, or an assumption concerning the
development of a component of an exogenous industry, such as
commercial fishing or agriculture. Each "case" has implications for
some subset of the exogenous variables in the ISER economic models.
A "case" consists of a set of data files, consisting of the
effects of that case on the exogenous variables in one or more of
the ISER economic models. In addition, each case contains an
additional data file called COMMENT, containing no data but rather a
comment which provides a short description and documentation of the
case.
Each case is given a user-specified name which becomes the name
of a sub-archive within the SCEN archive. The convention to be
used in giving such names is as follows: the name will take the form
ccc.nnn, where ccc is a three-digit code identifying the particular
case, such as an OCS sale, which would be called OCS.nnn, or Prudhoe
Bay field employment, which would be called PRB.nnn. The final
three digits (nnn) are an identifier of the particular set of
assumptions employed to describe this case. For example, there may
be a series of PRB.nnn cases, each corresponding to a different set
of assumptions regarding the future development of Prudhoe Bay.
It should be noted that not all cases will be usable with all
models. For example, certain cases such as revenue assumptions may
affect only variables in the MAP statewide model. On the other
hand, any cases which involve exogenous employment will typically
affect the exogenous variables in all three models, but information
may be inadequate to provide sufficient regional disaggregation to
use either the regionalization model or the municipality model.
Alternatively, the user may have sufficient information to
regionally disaggregate the statewide data to the level required by
BIGMOD, but not to the level required by A83.CD. Finally, there may
A-6
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
be some cases which affect exogenous variables in the municipality
model but have no bearing on the statewide model (an example is
state and local government employment, which is endogenous to A83.2
but exogenous to BIGMOD).
In order to deal with such possibilities without having to set
up three special model-specific libraries in which there would be a
great deal of duplication, the comment file in each case should
include a list of the models with which the case may be
appropriately utilized. Many cases initially entered into the
library as 11 state 11 cases, usable only with the statewide mode 1
A81. 7, may be gradually upgraded as more information and/ or more
effort is put into disaggregating the data to a regional level
appropriate for use in one or both of the regional models.
b. Output File Archives--The Scenario Library (SCENARIO-)
Output of the scenario generation macro is filed in the
SCENARIO t.ddddd archive, where t is a one-digit code indicating
the model to which the scenario is appropriate (S = statewide A83.2,
C =· regionalization CDMBT, A = municipality BIGMOD). A type
S scenario archive contains the 16 data files listed in Table la; a
type C scenario archive contains the 40 data files listed in
Table lb; a type A scenario archive contains the 45 data files
listed in Table lc; and each contains an additional COMMENT file
which documents the scenario.
A-7
A-8
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May 1983
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A-2. Using the Scenario Generator
a. Capabilities and Organization
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The scenario generator is simply an elaborate macro for
combining the various cases contained in the SCEN library archives
according to a variety of user-specified instructi~ns and filing the
resulting scenario in th,e SCENARIO_ library archives.
It expects input files in the format decribed above for the
SCEN library and produces output in the form of data files in the
format described above for the SCENARIO_ library.
It permits the user to alter the timing of events described in
the individual case archives by moving the entire set of data series
forward or backward in time.
In addition to the SCENARIO data files output which are
following automatically stored on disk a run of the scenario
generator, several online outputs are produced during and
immediately following a run.
After receiving all instructions from the user, the scenario
generator prints an acknowledgment that processing is beginning, of
the form:
GENERATING SCENARIO t.dddd
and presents the total of the number of cases it is about to process:
CONSISTS OF n CASES, as follows:
After which it presents a description of each case as it is
processed, consisting of the contents of the comment filed 1n the
COMMENT file for that case and an acknowledgment of any moves in the
timing of the case that have been made from that found in the SCEN
library archives.
Upon completion of processing, it prints the message
SCENARIO t.dddd FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
Finally, following this message, it will request
provide a written description of the scenario, which
as a comment in the COMMENT file corresponding
generated scenario. This request will be indicated by
NEW COMMENT:
that the user
wi 11 be filed
to the newly
the prompt:
at which point the user should type in a short description of the
scenario. This description may be more than one line, but the
prompt "NEW COMMENT:" will precede each line. Following completion
of the description, the user should type a semicolon ";" followed
by the command "FILE;".
A-9
b. Instructions for Using &SCENGEN
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The command &SCENGEN will activate the scenario generator, which
will proceed to ask the user a series of questions. First, the user
will be asked to provide the type and name for the scenario, with
the prompts:
SCENARIO TYPE (S, C, or A)
SCENARIO NAME:
Once this has been provided, the scenario generator will begin to
ask questions about each of the cases to be included Ln the
scenario. The first question,
CASE NAME:
it expects to be answered with one of the ccc .nnn names found Ln
the SCEN library. It then prompts:
START:
and expects the user to provide an integer representing the number
of years forward or backward in time that the case should be moved.
For example, if the user wishes to leave the timing of the case as
it is recorded in the library, he should respond with 0; if he
wishes to delay the case by two years, -2; or move it forward five
years, 5; and so on.
After providing this information for the first case, the
computer will again give the prompt:
CASE NAME:
which it expects to be answered with the name of the second case,
followed by prompts for the start and type of the second case, and
so on. Currently, the user may specify as many as 97 cases to be
included in a scenario. Once all of the case information has been
entered, respond to the CASE NAME: prompt with a semicolon to
indicate the end of the input 1 ist. No further information is
required from the user until processing is completed, after which
the user will receive the prompt:
NEW COMMENT:
and should type in a short description of the scenario contents,
followed by a semicolon and the word "file", followed by a second
semicolon.
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c. An Example
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Before beginning to generate a scenario, the user may want to
scan the cases in the SCEN library available for use in the
scenario. This can be done using the &LISTLIB comma~d, which
provides a complete listing of currently available cases, as follows:
&L ISTLIB
DATA SCEN AGR.SCM
BCF.003
BCL.04T
DOR.381
FLP.SCM
GFC.EPM
GFM.EPM
NPR.MOD
NWG.MGl
OCS.BFM
ocs .ssx
OCS.57X
OCS .60X
OCS.70L
OCS. 11M
OCS. 75H
OCS.75L
OCS.75M
ocs. 751
OCS.754
ocs. 755
OMN.EPH
PRB.081
TAP.XXX
TCF .001
TRS.MOD
UPC .011
If the user is unfamiliar with one or more of these cases, he may
use the &DESCASE or &DESCLIB commands explained in the following
section •
After deciding on the cases he
scenario, the user proceeds to invoke
the &SCENGEN command.
wishes to include in the
the scenario generator with
In this example, we generate a scenario for use with statewide
model A83.2 called S.TESTl, consisting of 14 cases selected from the
27 available cases in the SCEN library. Note that we have changed
the timing of two of those cases: OCS.60X has been moved forward
4 years, and NWG.MGl has been moved back 1 year. After completing
the questions for the desired cases, the user responds with a
semicolon.
A-ll
TROLL COMMAND: .&SCENGEN
TYPE OF SCENARIO (S, C, or A): S
NAME OF SCENARIO:
PROJECT CODE: .AGR. SCM
START:.O
CASE NAME:.BCF.003
START:.O
CASE NAME:.DOR.381
START:. 0
CASE NAME:.FLP.SCM
START: .0
CASE NAME:.GFC.EPM
START:.O
CASE NAME:.GFM.EPM
START:. 0
cAsE NAME:.ocs.ssx
START:. 0
CASE NAME:.OCS.BFM
START:. 0
CASE N&~:.OCS.60X
START: .4
CASE NAME:.OMN.EPH
START: .0
CASE NAME : • TAP. XXX
START: .0
CASE NAME:.TCF.OOl
START:. 0
CASE NAME:.TRS.MOD
START:. 0
CASE NAME: .NWG. MGl
START:.-1
CASE NAME: •j_
A-12
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May 1983
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Institute of Social
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May 1983
The computer will now begin processing the required cases. As it
completes each case, it provides a description of the case, as
follows:
GENERATING SCENARIO TESTl
CONSISTS OF 14 CASES AS FOLLOWS:
CASE AGR. SCM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN AGR.SCM COMMENT -
MODERATE CASE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT FROM
GOLDSMITH AND PORTER, ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
FOR THE RAILBELT, ISER, 10/81, P. A-75
CASE BCF.003
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN BCF.003 COMMENT -
BOTTOMFISHING EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES PREPARED BY
GUNNAR KNAPP FOR OCS SALE 75 STUDY, FEB 1982
. CASE DOR.381
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN DOR.381 COMMENT -
THIRD QUARTER 1981 PETROLEUM PRODUCTION REVENUE
FORECAST, ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE, 9/81
CASE FLP.SCM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN FLP.SCM COMMENT-
LUMBER MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
ASSUMES TIMBER OUTPUT RISING TO 960 MILLION
BOARD FEET BY THE YEAR 2000.
A-13
CASE GFC •• EPM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN GFC.EPM COMMENT -
FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
ASSUMED TO GROW AT HISTORICAL RATE OF 0.5 %
ANNUALLY THROUGH 2 000
CASE GFM.EPM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN.GFM.EPM COMMENT -
FEDERAL MILITARY EMPLOYMENT
ASSUMED CONSTANT AT CURRENT LEVEL (1979)
CASE OCS.55X
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN OCS.55X COMMENT-
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING OCS SALE 55, EASTERN GULF OF AK
ASSUMES ONLY EXPLORATION EMPLOYMENT, NO DISCOVERIES OF
COMMERCIAL OIL OR GAS
FROM USDOI, BLM AK OCS OFFICE, EASTERN GULF OF AK:
FINAL EIS : PROPOSED FEDERAL OIL AND GAS LEASE SALE 55,
TABLE E-2, P .A-1
CASE OCS.BFM
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN OCS.BFM COMMENT -
DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING JOINT FED/STATE OCS SALE BF
ASSUMES DISCOVERY OF .75 BBO AND 1.625 TCFG
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO FROM USDOI, BLM AK OCS OFFICE,
BEAUFORT SEA FINAL EIS : PROPOSED FEDERAL/STATE OIL AND
GAS LEASE SALE
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CASE OCS.60X
MOVED 4 YEARS
SCEN OCS.60X COMMENT-
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING OCS SALE 60, LOWER COOK INLET
ASSUMES ONLY EXPLORATION EMPLOYMENT, NO DISCOVERIES OF
CO:MMERCIAL OIL OR GAS
FROM:
USDOI, BLM AK OCS OFFICE, LOWER COOK INLET, FINAL EIS
PROPOSED FEDERAL OIL AND GAS LEASE SALE 60
CASE OMN.EPH
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN OMN.EPH COMMENT -
OTHER MINING EMPLOYMENT
MINING SECTOR EMPLOYMENT NOT ACCOUNTED FOR BY OTHER
SPECIFIC, PROJECTS. ASSUMED TO INCREASE AT 1% ANNUALLY
FROM ITS 1979 ACTUAL LEVEL
CASE TAP.XXX
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN TAP.XXX COMMENT -
TRANS-ALASKA PIPELINE EMPLOYMENT
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION EMPLOYMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAPS PIPELINE
FROM:.
GOLDSMITH AND PORTER, ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
FOR THE RAILBELT, ISER, 10/81 2
P. A-6.
A-15
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
CASE TCF.001
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN TCF.001 COMMENT -
TRADITIONAL COMMERCIAL FISHING
INCLUDES NON-BOTTOMFISHING EXISTING COMMERCIAL
FISHING AND PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT HELD AT 1979
LEVELS FOR PERIOD THROUGH 2000.
1979 LEVEL ESTIMATED FROM PROJECTION OF ESTIMATES
PROVIDED IN : ROGERS, MEASURING THE SOCIOECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF ALASKAS FISHERIES, ISER, APRIL, 1980.
CASE TRS.MOD
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN TRS.MOD COMMENT -
TOURISM
NUMBER OF TOURISTS ENTERING ALASKA. ASSUMED
TO GROW AT 4% ANNUALLY FROM ACTUAL VALUE IN 1979
FROM:
GOLDSMITH AND PORTER, ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
FOR THE RAILBELT, ISER, 10/81,
P. A-102
CASE NWG.MG1
MOVED -1 YEARS
SCEN NWG.MG1 COMMENT -
ALASKA NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
FROM:
MOGFORD AND GOLDSMITH, THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ALASKA
NATURAL GAS PIPELINE AND STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
EXPENDITURES, ISER, 1980
A-16
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After processing all
indicates that processing
description from the user.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
of the requested cases, the
has terminated and requests a
computer
scenario
The user types in a description, followed by a semicolon and a
file command.
SCENARIO S.TESTl FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
NEW COMMENT: .THIS IS A TEST CASE TO TRY OUT THE NEW SCENARIO GENERATOR
NEW COMMENT: .;FILE;
TROLL COMMAND: •
To generate scenarios for use with the regionalization model
A83.CD or the municipality model BIGMOD, the user would follow the
same procedure, except that the response to the prompt "TYPE OF
SCENARIO:" would be C or A, as appropriate, and the user would have
to take care that the list of cases used are appropriate for use
with the C or A model. (Currently~ all cases in the SCEN library
are usable for constructing type s or c scenarios but need to be
disaggregated for use in type A scenarios.)
A-17
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May 1983
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May 1983
A-3. Creating, Manipulating, and Examining Library Files
A variety of macros have been developed to perform several
common operations on the library files. This section describes the
functions and use of these macros.
The macros currently available are:
&SETUP
&MUNICASE
&DELCASE
&DELSCN
&LKCASE
&OLKCASE
&LKSCN
&OLKSCN
&ADCASE
&SUBCASE
&LISTLIB
&DESCLIB
&DESCASE
© CASE
&CASECHEK
&SCENCHEK
This section provides a short description and examples of each
of these macros.
a. &SETUP
In order to establish a 11 case,11 it would be possible to use a
series of DEDIT commands in TROLL to input each of the affected data
s,eries. However, insofar as the scenario generator requires data
files extending over the 1960-2030 range, this process would
normally involve inputting a large number of zero values. Macro
&SETUP is designed to make this input task simpler by setting up the
affected series with zero values over the 1960-2030 range and
permitting the user to replace the nonzero values of the series.
Example: [A 100,000 BPD refinery project in Valdez requires
construction employment of 752 persons for three years
beginning in 1983. Thereafter, it employs 386 persons for
ten years.]
We will name this case ALP.lDD, indicating a 100,000 BPD
version of the Alpetco proposal.'
two variables in the statewide model,
To prepare a case for use in constructing
use with the statewide model, the following
This project affects
namely EMCNX2 and EMMXl.
an 11 8 11 type scenario for
commands would suffice.
A-19
TROLL COMMAND: &SETUP
CASE NAME: ALP.lOO
VARIABLE NAME: EMCNX2
YEAR: 1983
19 83 • 7 52 • 7 52 • 7 52 ; FILE ;
TROLL COMMAND: &SETUP
CASE NAME: ALP.lOO
VARIABLE NAME: EMMXl
YEAR: 1986
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1986 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 ..1..
FILE;
To upgrade the case for use with the regionalization model,
notice that the project is located entirely in Valdez and,
consequently, affects only the variable B26. The case may be
upgraded by the following commands.
TROLL COMMAND: &SETUP
CASE NAME: ALP.lOO
VARIABLE NAME: B26
YEAR: 1983
1983 .752 .752 .752 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386
1991 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 -;Ffl.E;
To further upgrade the case for use with the municipality model,
notice that the project affects only the variable C.MP.Bl in BIGMOD.
Consequently, the case may be further upgraded by the following
sequence:
TROLL COMMAND: &SETUP
CASE NAME: ALP.lOO
VARIABLE NAME: C.MP.Bl
YEAR: 1983
1983 .752 .752 .752 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386
1991 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 ;FILE;
Finally, the user should add a comment to archive SCEN ALP.lOO
in the form of a file named COMMENT whose 11 connnent 11 contains a
description of the case just input, as follows:
TROLL COMMAND: &SETUP
CASE NAME: ALP.lOO
VARIABLE NAME: COMMENT
NEW COMMENT: CASE IS A 100,000 BPD VERSION OF THE ALPETCO PROPOSAL,
SUITED FOR USE IN TYPE S, C, OR A SCENARIOS ;FILE;
A-20
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b. &MUNICASE
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The &MUNICASE macro takes a case which contains variables for
type S and C scenarios and adds to it non-Anchorage data files for
type A scenarios (any files containing data for Anchorage should be
added using the &SETUP macro).
Example: The user wants to
currently suited only for type S
type A scenarios.
make
and C
case ABC.OOl, which
scenarios, suitable
&MUNICASE
SCEN CASE NAME: ABC.OOl
DATA SCEN ABC.OOl COMMENT
EMCNXl
B04
FIRST BASIC, SECOND BASIC, OR COMBINED CASE (F, S, OR C)?l F
lA first basic case is one that contains
any of the variables in column A (right), but
none in column B. A second basic case 1s one
EMCNXl EMMXl
that contains variables in column B, but none
EMCNX2 EMMX2
in A.
EMP9
A combined case is one that contains
EMAGRI
variables from both columns.
EMT9X EMF ISH
c. &DELCASE
A B
1S
for
The &DELCASE macro deletes all files associated with the
particular case specified by the user.
Example: Case ABC.OOl is found to be 1n error or of no further
value. To delete it, say:
&DELCASE
CASE TO BE DELETED: ABC.OOl
~ A-21
d. &DELSCN
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The &DELSCN macro deletes all files associated with the
particular SCENARIO archive specified by the user.
Example: Scenario S.TESTl 1s found to be of no further value.
To delete it, say:
&DELSCN
SCENARIO TO BE DELETED: S.TESTl
e. &LKCASE and &OLKCASE
In order to examine all of the variables in each case archive,
two macros are available. Macro &LKCASE prints out all variables at
the terminal. Macro &OLKCASE prints out the same tables offline at
MIT.
Example: To print out case ABC.OOl offline.
&OLKCASE
CASE NAME: ABC.OOl
f. &LKSCN and &OLKSCN
In order to examine all of the variables in a SCENARIO archive,
two macros are available. Macro &LKSCN prints out all variables at
the terminal. Macro &OLKSCN prints out all variables offline at
MIT.
Example: To print out scenario S.TESTl at the terminal,
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NAME OF SCENARIO: S.TESTl -
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
If the user wishes to add a single case to a scenario without
rerunning the entire scenario generator, he or she may do so using
macro &ADCASE.
It requests the name of the SCENARIO archive to which the case
will be added, the name of the incrementing case, the number of
years the case is to be moved, the type of scenario, and a name for
the new scenario. Upon completing the processing, it will request a
description of the new scenario from the user. The user types 1n
the new description, followed by a semicolon and a file command.
Example: You want to add case ABC.OOl to scenario S.TESTl and
call the new scenario TEST2.
&ADCASE
OLD SCENARIO ARCHIVE: S.TESTl
INCREMENTING SCEN ARCHIVE: ABC.OOl
START: 0
TYPE OF SCENARIO (S, C, or A): S
NEW SCENARIO ARCHIVE: S.TEST2
SCENARIO S.TESTl INCREMENTED BY
CASE ABC.OOl
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN ABC.OOl COMMENT
SAMPLE CASE TO TEST THE SCENARIO GENERATOR
SCENARIO S.TEST2 FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
NEW COMMENT: SCENARIO S.TESTl INCREMENTED
NEW COMMENT: BY CASE ABC.OOl
NEW COMMENT: ;FILE;
A-23
h. &SUBCASE
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
If the user wishes to subtract a single case from a scenario
without rerunning the scenario generator, he or she may do so using
macro &SUBCASE, which operates in a manner analogous to &A.DCASE
above.
.
Example: You want to take case ABC.OOl out of scenar~o S.TEST2
and call the new scenario TESTl.
&SUBCASE
OLD SCENARIO ARCHIVE: S.TEST2
DECREMENTING SCEN ARCHIVE: ABC.OOl
START: 0
TYPE OF-SCENARIO (S, C, or A): S
NEW SCENARIO ARCHIVE: S.TESTl
SCENARIO S.TEST2 DECREMENTED BY
CASE ABC.OOl
MOVED 0 YEARS
SCEN ABC.OOl COMMENT
SAMPLE CASE TO TEST THE SCENARIO GENERATOR
SCENARIO S.TESTl FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE
NEW COMMENT: SCENARIO S.TEST2 DECREMENTED
NEW COMMENT: BY CASE ABC.OOl
NEW COMMENT: ; FILE;
i. &LISTLIB
Lists the currently available cases for use by the scenario
generator. Require no arguments.
j. &DESCLIB
Lists the comments associated with all available cases in the
SCEN_ library. Requires no arguments.
A-24
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Lists the comments associated with a particular case in the
SCEN _ library.
Example: The user is unfamiliar with case ABC.OOl and wants a
description of its contents.
&DESCASE
CASE NAME: ABC.OOl
1. ©CASE
Copies all or part of a user-specified case.
Example: The user wants to copy one of the three files in
case ABC.OOl.
© CASE
OLD CASE NAME: ABC.OOl
THE VARIABLES IN CASE ABC.OOl ARE:
DATA SCEN ABC.OOl
NEW CASE NAME: ABC.002
COMMENT
EMCNXl
B~4
VARIABLES TO BE COPIED, SEPARATED BY SPACES,
1""'1 i FOLLOWED BY SEMICOLON EMCNXl;
m. &CASECHEK
The &CASECHEK macro verifies that the type S, C, ?nd A
components of a case are all consistent. The macro prints a table
showing the total non-Anchorage employment assumptions for each type.
A-25
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Example: The user wants to check that case ABC.OOl LS
consistent for use in all three models--A83.2, A83.CD, and BIGMOD.
&CASECHEK
CASE NAMES, SEPARATED BY SPACES, FOLLOWED BY SEMICOLON ABC.OOl;
n. &SCENCHEK
The &SCENCHEK macro verifies that a type C and a type A scenario
which contain identical case files are consistent. The macro prints
a table showing the total non-Anchorage employment assumptions for
each type.
Example: The user wants to verify that C type scenario C.TESTl
and A type scenario A. TESTl, which contain the same cases, are
consistent.
&SCENCHEK
REGIONAL MODEL SCENARIO ARCHIVE: C.TESTl
MUN I MODEL SCENARIO ARCHIVE: A. TES T1
A-26
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B .1.
B.2.
B.3.
B.4.
B.S.
B .6.
B.7.
B.S.
B.9.
B. 10.
B.ll.
APPENDIX B
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL MODULES
Introduction 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0
Economic Module Description 0
Fiscal Module Description 0 0 0
Input Variables 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
0 0 0 0 B-1
B-5
B-31
B-63
Variable and Parameter Name Conventions 0 0 B-68
Parameter Values 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 B-73
Model Validation and Properties 0 B-79
Input Data Sources 0 . . . B-95
Programs for Model Use B-105
Model Adjustments for Simulation . . . . B-107
Key to Regressions . . . . 0 . . B-111
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May 1983
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B.l. Introduction
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
This section describes the core of the Institute for Social and
Economic Research (ISER) Man-in-the-Arctic Program (MAP) Alaska
Economic Model. It consists of modules representing the economic
and fiscal structure of the state. The model also includes two
demographic components--population and household formation
modules--described in separate appendices. A scenario generator
model provides input for running the model. The ISER MAP Alaska
Economic Model was developed at the University of Alaska in the
early 1970s under a grant from the National Science Foundation.
Since its original use to demonstrate the economic, demographic, and
fiscal impacts on Alaska of different schedules of federally imposed
petroleum development scenarios, it has been used in a variety of
types of analyses. These range from analyzing the economic and
fiscal effects of specific private sector projects, to the analysis
of the implications of different aggregate state wealth management
strategies, to the projection of likely economic futures for -the
state to assist in electricity load forecasting.
These uses reflect the fact that the MAP model is designed for
and primarily used for long-run policy analyses, impact analyses,
and projections. The analyses are not predictions, but rather 11 what
if11 experiments. As such, the model has a different structure from
one designed specifically for prediction. Whereas a model designed
for prediction may not place a priority on describing how an economy
works, a policy analysis model such as the MAP model will trade off
some predictive ability for the more useful attribute of accurately
reflecting within its structure how the economy works.
Because it is a long-run model, furthermore, the MAP model is
not concerned with capturing all the short-run fluctuations which
affect the economy over the course of the business cycle (or the
seasons). Rather, the model attempts to capture the underlying
structural changes affecting the longer-run growth trajectory of the
state. For this purpose, the other types of regional models in
common use--economic base models and input-output models--are
inadequate.
The economic base model is the easiest type of model to
construct and use, requi~ing in its simplest formulation only that
the basic and nonbasic sectors of the economy be identified by one
of several established techniques. The ratio of nonbasic to basic
activity becomes the estimate of activity which would be generated
by an increase in basic activity. The simplicity of the model means
that it can be widely used, but only for a narrow range of state
analyses. All variations of economic activity are assumed to
originate in changes in basic sector activity and the ratio of
nonbasic to basic activity is assumed constant. Neither assumption
makes sense for the analysis of economic growth in Alaska.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The input-output model provides much more detail on the
interrelationships among industries within a regional economy and
can trace the impact of a change in basic sector activity in much
greater detail than an economic base model. Differential impacts
from changes in different sectors of the economy can be traced.
Data requirements are the largest problem in model implementation,
although techniques have been developed to regionalize input-output
models and make them transferable from region to region. The basic.
conceptual problems with input-output models are the assumption of
constant coefficients over time and the fact that all econom1c
change originates in the export sector. Constant coefficients for
interindustry flows and interregional trade flows assume away
economies of scale, other types of agglomeration economies such as
urbanization, technological change, and import substitution.
Input-output analysis is better suited for economies more mature
than Alaska which have significant interindustry flows in
manufacturing. Most Alaskan industry involves the extraction and
exporting of natural resources or support activities such as trade
and services. Neither is amenable to input-output analysis.
Econometric models offer much more flexibility in modeling
regions than either economic base or input-output-type models in the
sense that they can incorporate other facets of growth into the
analysis. They can include the ideas from economic base and
input-output models, but in addition they can treat other sources of
growth and the evolution of the regional economy over time as it
changes form. Some of these capabilities include the ability to
handle a changing ratio of basic-to-nonbasic employment, to
incorporate a fiscal sector into the model of the economy, to
include relative regional prices in the model, and to handle the
determination of personal income and popuation based on activity
within the region. The more comprehensive modeling approach also
forces consistency and independent checks into any analysis.
To illustrate the importance of the evolution of the economy
over time, Figure B.l shows the growth since 1960 of the economy as
measured by four categories of employment. One may disagree over
the proper classification of an industry as basic or nonbasic, but
it is clear that the relationship between basic and support sector
employment has changed dramatically over the years. Any long-run
analysis done in 1960 using an economic base or input-output model
projecting into the future would have vastly underestimated actual
growth. In the same manner, it would underestimate the level of
impacts in a growing economy. This type of misunderstanding was
definitely a factor in the underestimation of impacts for all
a priori analyses of the Alyeska pipeline.
B-2
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-100
-75
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f-
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f...--
f..------
~---------..
~---------
'"'"
1-
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1-
Institute of Social
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HAP Documentation
May 1983
FIG.2:ALASKA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
(THOUSANDS)
""'-.. -/
1--
I
7
I -'_./"',, / r--.., ___ i...------......-( t~UPPC RT I
/ ' .: I
' _.. I / ' v / --v .. .---'.---',......_ --~""
~------i 0JVEF NMEf\ T 7 ~------
~----.. ~-
/' -----------rf. [~RA C::: ITO! 1r trt ]Qj;:'" ~
L7 ~ v
--\3ASI~
I
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979
B-3
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The choice of model type is based upon uses anticipated for the
model. The choice of actual structure depends upon this factor as
well as the data which is available and the perceptions of economic
interrelationships by the model builder. Both of these factors
change over time, and, consequently, the model structure 1s
constantly evolving in a way which maintains ·and improves its
ability to analyze regional economic issues for a rapidly changing
economy. The fact that the Alaskan economy is relatively
underdeveloped by national standards makes analysis more subject to
error than in a larger, more mature economy where the size and
stability of the sectors provide not only a more stable track record
of past change against which to analyze the future but also the
confidence that change will continue to be gradual.
In Alaska, economic change has been and will continue to be
dramatic and abrupt. Analysis of past events and relationships do
not always provide clear guides to future relationships.
Consequently, policy analyses using any Alaskan economic model must
recognize and accept a larger degree of uncertainty than elsewhere
as well as the fact that different interpretations can be placed
upon past events which have different future implications. Three
particular areas where this is true are (1) the relationship between
employment and population, (2) the growth of support relative to
basic sector activity, and (3) the impact of state and local
government on the economy.
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Surmnary
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May 1983
B.2. Description of the Economic Module
of the MAP Economic Model
The level of economic activity is a function of both export and
support-oriented production. The output in the export sectors is
determined exogenously while that of the support sectors LS a
function of local demand, reflected by disposable personal Lncome
and wealth. Export and support production generate wages and
salaries which form the major portion, after personal taxes are
deducted, of disposable personal income. Thus, demand and supply
are simultaneously determined each year.
The export sectors are portions of the following two-digit SIC
categories: agriculture-forestry-fisheries, manufacturing, federal
government, petroleum and other mLnLng, transportation, and
construction related to these actLvLties. Tourism crosses sectoral
boundaries and is also exogenous. All other sectors are classified
as support. State and local government output is an important
component of economic activity, which is determined by policy choice.
The Alaskan economy is linked to the national economy through
the average U.S. weekly wage, the U.S. consumer price index, the
unemployment rate, and real disposable personal income per capita.
The Alaskan versLons of these variables are related to their
national counterparts but are strongly affected by local conditions
such as excess labor demand.
The close transport link to the contiguous United States means
that the supplies of most inputs are infinitely elastic. . Thus, a
change in demand does not directly affect the price level of these
inputs which are not locally supplied. Labor and natural resources
are locally supplied and thus changes in demand do affect price,
particularly for labor in the short run. In the long run the supply
of labor is also infinitely elastic.
Data for model construction comes primarily from the Alaska
Department of Labor employment statistics, the U.S. Department of
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis personal income statistics, and
the gross-product-by-industry series developed by the Institute of
Social and Economic Research.
B-5
Introduction
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The structure of the economic module of the MAP model (as well
as the population and household modules) is illustrated in highly
simplified form in Figure B.2. In general terms, the model proceeds
sequentially to estimate industrial output, industry employment,
wages and salaries, and finally real disposable personal income.
However, the outputs of certain industries are themselves dependent
on the level of personal income. Because of this interrelationship,
total output and income are simultaneously determined in the model.
For example, an increase in personal income, by increasing the
demand for services, leads to increased output of the service
sector. The extra output will, in turn, require additional workers,
and the wages and salaries paid to these workers will add further to
personal income. Thus, the process has come full circle,
demonstrating that industrial output and personal income are indeed
simultaneously interdependent.
The model uses several different approaches in determining the
level of production in each industrial sector.. This reflects the
fact that the relevant causal mechanisms vary significantly from one
industrial sector to another. In determ{ning production levels, the
model classifies industrial sectors into three broad categories:
(1) those industries whose output is determined primarily by outside
factors, (2) those industries whose output is determined by policy
decisions, and (3) those industries whose output responds to changes
in the level of economic activity within Alaska. These categories
are, however, not mutually exclusive. Several of Alaska's important
industries have their outputs determined by combinations of the
above factors.
The principal industries whose output is determined by outside
forces are forestry, fisheries, agriculture, tourism, and the
federal government. Production levels in forestry and fisheries,
Alaska's traditional resource-based industries, are determined by
factors such as prices on world markets, supplies of natural
resources, and policy decisions made by the federal and state
governments concerning the appropriate utilization rates for
Alaska's natural resources. Agriculture, now and in the future, is
severely constrained by Alaska's harsh climate. Within the limits
imposed by the climate, agricultural output in Alaska is determined
by factors such as the availability of suitable land, prices of
agricultural products, and government transportation policies.
Tourism is constrained by the demand created by tourists from the
United States and abroad, a demand which, nonetheless, can be
stimulated by an improvement in the quantity and quality of tourist
facilities. In addition to its regulatory and general policy-making
role, the federal government sector has been, and undoubtedly will
continue to be, a major direct element in the Alaska economy. The
level of federal activity is determined primarily by national needs,
with dec is ions concerning national defense playing a particularly
important role. Clearly, the decisions affecting federal activity
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FIGURE B .2. MAP ECONOMIC MODEL STRUCTURE
BASIC SECTORS
Forestry
Fisheries
Federal govt.
Agriculture
Manuf. for export
Mining
Tourism
/,.---
/
I i rJ.:;tural
\ l
Alaska
State
and
Local
Govt.
~!----.Petroleum
t-·
Construction
B-7
SUPPORT SECTORS
Trade
Finance
Services
Transportation
Commu n icat ions
Manufacturing
Public utilities
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in Alaska are influenced to only a minor extent by economic
conditions within Alaska.
The petroleum industry is also largely controlled by forces
outside the Alaska economy; but because of its importance, it is
given special and much more detailed treatment. Petroleum
employment and output are projected in accordance with detailed
petroleum development scenarios. On the basis of present
information, Alaska's petroleum resources appear to be potentially
so vast and so widespread that there are countless alternative ways
~n which these_resources might be developed.
In contrast to the industries influenced primarily by outside
forces or policy decisions, the output of the support sector
industries (consisting of trade, finance, services, transportation,
communication, public utilities, local-serving manufacturing, and
proprietors) is produced to meet local demands and thus responds to
changes in the level of economic activity in Alaska. It is clear
that there has been a close link between personal income and support
sector output in the past, and this relationship has remained stable
over time.
The cause of this relationship is the fact that a major portion
of the demand for support sector output comes from the household or
consumer sector. The trade, finance (including real estate), and
service industries are very closely linked to the spending decisions
of Alaska households. Thus, there is a clear causal mechanism
producing an increase in support sector output in response to an
increase in real personal income. Any action, public or private,
which adds to personal income will induce an expansion in support
sector output. To reflect this, support sector output in the model
is generally made a function of Alaska real disposable personal
income and real wealth.
Analyses indicate that ~n most instances the output of the
support sector industries increases more than in proportion to the
increase in personal income. That is, ff personal income rises
1 percent, the output of the typical support sector industry
increases by somewhat more than 1 percent. There are two separate
factors which operate to produce this result. First, other studies
show that ~n the postwar years, the service sector ~n the U.S.
economy has tended to expand relative to other industries.
Consumers have been devoting an increasing share of their total
expenditures to the purchase of various kinds of services. It is
not surprising to observe this same phenomenon in the Alaska economy.
The second factor causing the relatively rapid rise in support
sector output is more specific_ to the Alaska situation. As the
Alaska economy expands, it becomes feasible to have more of the
support ~ector output produced locally rather than imported from the
Lower 48. The trade, finance, and service industries in particular
benefit from the general expansion in the size of the Alaska
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economy. The share of output produced locally tends to ~ncrease
relative to the share supplied from the outside. As a result, the
rate of growth in the output of these industries is greater than the
rate of growth in total consumer expenditures or total personal
~ncome.
The output of the construction industry is determined by a
combination of internal and external factors. Part of construction
activity is designed to supply the needs of the expanding Alaska
economy. As in the support sector, this portion of construction
output is made a function of real disposable personal income. An
increase in personal income and the associated rise in general
economic activity produce an increase in the demand for the
construction of both residential and commercial structures. A
second part of construction supplies the needs of state government
capital spending. In addition to the construction required by the
general expansion in economic activity, there is likely to be
considerable construction activity involved ~n the building of
pipelines, terminals, and other facilities required for petroleum
production and other industrial development. This portion of
construction output is exogenously determined in accordance with the
relevant development scenario.
Proceeding sequentially, after output has been determined in
each of the major industrial sectors, the next step in the model is
to calculate industry employment. A statistical relationship
derived from the Alaska data is used in most industries to project
industry employment as a function of industry 6utput. This
relationship can be interpreted as a demand-for-labor equation; it
specifies the number of workers required to produce a given level of
industry output. The supply of labor ~n Alaska is effectively
brought into balance with the demand through the process of
migration. When an expansion in economic activity raises the demand
for labor, new workers migrate into the state to take advantage of
the additional job opportunities. Past experience, most recently in
connection with the construction of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline,
indicates that the supply of labor adjusts quite quickly. With the
supply of labor being so flexible, it is the demand for labor which
deterines the actual levels of employment in most industries in the
Alaska economy. Table B.l shows in detail the industry
classifications currently ~n use in the model.
There are, however, a few industries for which a different
procedure is used to project industry employment. This occurs where
there is no discernible systematic relationship between output and
employment such as ~n petroleum and fish harvesting. It seems
apparent, for example, that the number of persons who choose to
engage in commercial fishing is determined primarily by factors such
as culture, tradition, and personal preference, rather than by
purely economic factors.
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE B.l. EMPLOYMENT VARIABLES USED IN
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL
CONSTRUCTION
Endogenous
Exogenous
exogenous high wage (enclave)
exogenous low wage
MINING (including petroleum)
MANUFACTURING
Endogenous
Exogenous
exogenous high wage
exogenous low wage
fish processing
lumber
pulp
EMMF
EMML
EMMP
TRANSPORTATION
Endogenous
nontourism related
tourism re).ated
Exogenous
COMMUNICATION
PUBLIC UTILITIES
TRADE
Wholesale
Retail
retail, nontourism related
retail, tourism related
FINANCE-INSURANCE-REAL ESTATE
SERVICES
Non-Native Corp.-Related Services
business services
nonbusiness & nontourisrnr
related services
tourisrnrrelated services
Native Corp.-Related Services
B-10
Variable Name
EMCNXl
EMCNX2
EMMXl
EMMX2
EMTNT
EMTTOUR
EMDRNT
EMDTOUR
EMSB
EMS8NT
EMS TOUR
EMNC
EMCNl
EMCNX
EMMO
EMMX
EMT91
EMT9X
EMDW
EMDR
EMS91
EMCN
EMP9
EMM9
EMT9
EMCM
EMPU
EMD9
EMF!
EMS9
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TABLE B.l. (continued)
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
C1v1l1an
Militarya
STATE-LOCAL GOVERNMENT
State
Local
AGRICULTURE-FORESTRY-FISHERY
(and Unclassified)
Fishing
Agriculture
Unclassified
Forestry
PROPRIETORa
Nonfish Harvesting
Fish Harvesting
TOTAL CIVILIAN
TOTAL NON-AGRICULTURAL WAGE & SALARY
TOTAL NON-AGRICULTURAL WAGE & SALARY
PLUS MILITARY
GRAND TOTAL
SPECIAL CATEGORIES
FISH HARVESTING
Proprietor fish harvesting
Salaried fish harvesting
TOURISM
Transporation
Trade
Services
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May 1983
Variable Name
EMGC
EMGM
EMGS
EMGL
EMA.FISH
EMAGRI
PC39A
(PC39B * EMMX2)
EMPROl
EMPROFIS
EMPROFIS
EMAFISH
EMTTOUR
EMDTOUR
EMS TOUR
EMGF
EMGA
EMA9
EMPRO
EM96
EM97
EM98
EM99
EMF ISH
EMTOUR
aThese are categories not covered in employment data of state
Department of Labor.
B-11
Institute ~f Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Economic activity in the state and local government sector ~s
determined ultimately by government· policies. Although economic
conditions in Alaska certainly influence the decision process, the
process itself is essentially political rather than economic in
nature. Since the art of modeling is not nearly so advanced as to
enable adequate simulation of the political dec is ion process, the
decisions are specified outside the model by a set of "fiscal
rules." What is included in the model is a set of relationships
that trace out the econom~c implications of the alternative
political decisions. Indeed, one of the principal functions of the
MAP model is to project the outcomes associated with alternative
social choices. The relationships in the model are, therefore,
designed so that they can be readily altered to reflect alternative
policy choices at each step in the decision process.
Following the determination of industry output and employment,
the next major element in the model is the calculation of industry
wage rates. Average wages in each industry are made a function of
average earnings in the United States, the cost of living in Alaska,
and the "tightness" of the Alaska labor market. Since the cost of
living in Alaska is linked to U.S. prices, the net effect is that
wage rates in Alaska are very closely related to wages and prices in
the United States as a whole. It would be impossible for it to be
otherwise so long as Alaska is open to migration to and from the
Lower 48. If wages in Alaska became excessively high relative to
the rest of the United States, large numbers of workers would
migrate into the state, thus tending to force wages down.
Conversely, if wages in Alaska were too low, there would be a
shortage of labor, tending to force wages up. Thus, over the long
run, Alaska wages have to maintain some sort of reasonable
relationship with wages in the United States as a whole.
The final piece of industry information generated by the model
is total wage and salary payments. Total earnings in each industry
are computed by multiplying the industry wage rate times industry
employment. To review, this makes four pieces of information that
are provided on an annual basis for each industry in the model:
(1) real output, (2) employment, (3) wage rates, and (4) wage and
salary payments.
After wages and salaries are calculated for each industry, the
figures are combined to estimate total wage earnings in the Alaska
economy as a whole. This forms the basis for estimating the
personal income available to Alaska residents. Although wages and
salaries are by far the largest single component, personal income
also includes interest, dividends, rental income, proprietors'
income, and miscellaneous other labor income. For the United
States, these nonwage components make up about a third of total
personal income. The elements of personal income are shown in
Table B.2. In Alaska, the nonwage components are less significant
and make up less than 20 percent of personal income, although they
are growing.
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TABLE B.2. PERSONAL INCOME VARIABLES USED IN
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL
-Plus:
Wage and salary disbursements
Other labor income
Proprietors' income
fishery proprietor income
nonfishery proprietor income
Equals: Total labor and proprietor income by
place of work (total earnings)
Variable Name
PIPROF
PIPROl
WS98
PIOLI
PI PRO
PITE
Minus: Personal contributions to Social Security PISSC
Equals: Net labor and proprietors income by
place of work (net earnings)
Plus: Residence adjustment
Equals: Net labor and proprietors' income by
place of residence (net earnings)
Plus: Dividends, interest, and rent
Transfers
Equals: Personal income by place of residence
net of enclave employee
(EMCNXl) income
plus residence adjustment
Minus: Federal income-related taxes
State income-related taxes
Local income-related taxes
Equals: Disposable personal income
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PINE
PIRADJ
PINERADJ
PIDIR
PITRAN
PI
PI3
PI8
RTPIF
RTISCP
DPIRES
DPI
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May 1983
Disposable personal income is derived from the estimate of
personal income--the difference between the two measures being
personal tax and nontax payments. Personal taxes ~n the United
States amount to about 15 percent of personal income. This ratio is
somewhat higher for Alaska because of the progressive nature of the
federal income tax structure; that is, individuals with large
incomes pay higher tax rates than individuals with low incomes.
Because of the high cost of living in Alaska, the typical Alaska
taxpayer receives a higher income than the U.S. average. This means
that the typical Alaska taxpayer also pays a higher-than-average
effective tax rate.
The final element in the personal income component of the MAP
economic model is an adjustment for the effects of inflation.
Disposable personal income measured in current dollars is deflated
by the Alaska relative price index to produce an estimate of real
disposable personal income in terms of constant 1967 prices. Since
virtually all consumer· goods are imported from the Lower 48 and
since wage rates in Alaska are closely tied to wages in the United
States, relative prices in Alaska are projected as a function of the
U.S. consumer price index. The empirical studies used to derive
this relationship indicate that, over the long run, prices in Alaska
may be expected to increase somewhat less rapidly than prices in the
United States. This is consistent with the expectation that as the
Alaska economy expands, there will be a certain amount of import
substitution and economies of scale that will tend to lower costs in
some Alaska industries.
Real disposable personal income provides a measure of the
effective purchasing power of Alaska consumers after taking into
account tax payments and after making allowance for the effects of
inflation. This is, of course, the income measure that was used
previously in determining the demand for the output of the support
sector industries. At this point, the circle is closed: personal
income depends on industry output and industry output depends on
personal income.
STATE ECONOMIC MODULE DETAIL
Economic activity is measured by
industry: employment (EM**), wages and
rate (WR**), and gross product (XX**).
activity in each industry differ.
four variables in each
salaries (WS**), the wage
The equations describing
Each industry is identified by a suffix. Coefficients for the
stochastic equations are identified by a prefix C followed by a
number and a suffix letter. In this section, the equations used for
each industry are described.
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May 1983
These three support industries are modeled in a similar manner
which reflects the underlying structure of all the support sector
industries in the model. In each, the level of output of the
industry, measured as real gross product (XX**), is determined by
available real disposable personal income. Different combinations
of current and lagged values of both regular disposable personal
income (R.DPI8N) and the disposable personal income generated
directly by premium wage rate enclave construction projects (such as
construction of the Alyeska pipeline) (R. DPI8X) as well as the
average level of wealth in the economy (WEALTH) work best to explain
output in each case.
Average annual employment (EM**) in each case is determined by
the output of the industry. This equation represents the production
function. A pipeline dummy (PIPE) improves the fit of the equation
for the public utilities industry.
The real annual average wage rate (WR**/PDRPI) for each industry
(PDRPI is an Alaskan price index) is a function of both national and
regional economic factors. The change in the real average U.S. wage
rate (WEUS/PDUSCPI) is the major determinant of local wage rates
because of the direct link between the Alaska and national labor
markets. When the local demand for labor is growing rapidly, there
may be upward pressure on wage rates because of temporary supply
constraints or because of a temporary increase in premium wage rate
employment opportunities. The ratio of premium wage construe tion
employment to total employment (EMCNRT) measures this local labor
market tightness. Premium wage construction employment is enclave
construction employment at high wages. The oil pipeline is an
example of a project which generated premium wage construction
employment. A dummy variable (D.80DEC6) reflects the fact that wage
rates have proved to be 11 sticky'' in the downward direction since
1980 in the presence of a declining differential between Alaskan and
lower 48 price levels.
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Finance-Insurance-Real Estate (**FI)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
316: XXFI = C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l)
317: LOG(EMFI) = C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI)
318: LOG(WRFI/PDRPI) = C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C82D*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))
319: WSFI == EMFI*WRFI/1000.
Public Utilities (**PU)
299: XXPU = C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-l)+C72C*R.DPI8X+
C72D*R. DPI8N( -2)
-300: LOG(EMPU) = C73A+C73C*PIPE(-l)+C73B*LOG(XXPU)
301: LOG(WRPU/PDRPI) = C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C74C*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2))+C74D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))
302: WSPU == EMPU*WRPU/1000.
Communications (**CM)
295: XXCM = C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-l)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*
WEALTH(-l)*POP(-1)
296 LOG(EMCM) = C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCM)
297: LOG(WRCM/PDRPI) = C70A+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C70C*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2))+C70D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))
298: WSCM == EMCM*WRCM/1000.
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Mining (Including Petroleum) (**P9)
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Mining industry employment (EMP9), which consists primarily of
petroleum exploration and development, is determined outside the
model as part of a growth "scenario." Output (XXP9) is calculated
from employment. The wage rate and total wages and salaries are
calculated in a manner similar to all other industries.
2 73: LOG(XXP9) = C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9)
274: LOG(WRP9/PDRPI) = C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D~D61.76+C53B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)
275: WSP9 == EMP9*WRP9/1000
Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, Unclassified (**A9)
Wage and salary employment in this sector (EMA.9) consists of
that small portion of the fish harvesting industry employing workers
covered by unemployment insurance programs (EMA.FISH), agricultural
workers (E~GRI), unclassified workers, and foresters. The part of
fish harvesting employment is a constant proportion of the total
(EMFISH). All of agricultural employment (determined ~n a
"scenario") is within this sector. Unclassified employment is a
constant level calibrated to 1980. Forestry employment ~s a
constant proportion of manufacturing employment in the lumber, pulp,
and paper industry (EMMX2).
Output, the wage rate, and wages and salaries are determined in
the same way as in the mining industry. Output in this sector
consists of the gross product of all fish harvesting, not only that
of those workers who work for a wage.
349: EMA9 = EMAFISH+EMAGRI+PC39A*D77.00+PC39B*EMMX2
350: XXA9 = C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS)
351: LOG(WRA9/PDRPI) = C95A+C95F*D.80DEC6+C95B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C95C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C95D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))
352: WSA9 == EMA9*WRA9/1000.
B-17
Transportation (**T9)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Transportation industry employment has three components: a
support component (EMTNT) and two basic sector components--tourist-
related employment (EMTTOUR) and large pipeline employment (EMT9X).
Gross product in the support component of the indus try (XXTNT) is
determined by real disposable personal income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X).
This, in turn, determines support employment in transportation.
Tourist-related employment is a constant portion of total
tourist-related employment in the economy (EMTOUR). Large pipeline
activity is determined outside the model as part of the growth
11 scenario.11
Total industry gross product (XXT9) is the ratio of total to
support employment multiplied by support gross product.
There is one wage rate
calculated in the usual way.
calculated in the usual way.
for the whole industry which is
Total wages and salaries is also
287: XXTNT = C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-l)+
C64~kR.DPI8N+C64E*D71.73
288: LOG(EMTNT) = C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT)
289: EMTTOUR = PTOURT*EMTOUR
290: EMT91 = EMTNT+EMTTOUR
291: EMT9 = EMT9l+EMT9X
292: XXT9 = XXTNT*(EMT9/EMTNT)
293: LOG(WRT9/PDRPI) = C66A+C66F*D.80DEC6+C66D*D61.76+C66B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C66E*
LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1))
294: WST9 == EMT9*WRT9/1000.
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Manufacturing employment consists of a small support component
(EMMO) as well as a basic sector component (EMMX), itself consisting
of two elements--one which commands a premium wage rate (EMMXl) and
another with the same wage as the support component (EMMX2). As in
the mining industry, output is a function of employment. Support
sector employment is determined by disposable income (R.DPI8N), and
basic sector employment is determined outside the model as part of
the growth "scenario."
The manufacturing industry wage rate (WRM9) consists of two
separate wage rates. One is for support sector manufacturing and
all the current basic manufacturing activity consisting primarily of
fish processing, pulp and paper, and timber (WRM91). The other is a
premium wage (WRM9P) associated with certain prospective
manufacturing activities (EMMXl) such as a petrochemical plant or
aluminum smelter. The premium wage is a simple multiple (PADJ) of
the regular wage. Wages and salaries in total and for premium wage
employment are calculated in the usual way.
276: EMMO = C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77
277: EMM91 = EMMO+EMMX2
278: LOG(XXM91) = C61A+C61B*LOG(EMM91)
2 79: XXM9 --XXM9l+XXMX2
280: EMMX --EMMXl+EMMX2
2 81: EMM9 = EMMO+EMMX
282: LOG(WRM91/PDRPI) = C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C62C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C62D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))
283: WRM9P == WRM9l*PADJ
284: WSM9 == (EMMO+EMMX2)*WRM91/1000+EMMXl*WRM9P/1000
285: WSM9P == EMMXl*WRM9P/1000
286: WRM9 == WSM9/EMM9*1000
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Trade (**D9)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Employment in wholesale (EMDW) and retail (EMDR) trade are
handled as separate industries. In addition, retail trade contains
a tourist-related component (EMDTOUR).
Output in wholesale (XXDW) and retail trade (net of tourist-
,related employment) (XXDRNT) is determined as functions of real
disposable personal income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X) and average wealth
(WEALTH). Employment, in turn, is a function of output. Tourist-
related employment in trade LS a constant proportion of total
tourist employment (EMTOUR), which is added to other retail
employment to get total retail trade employment. Wage rates and
wages and salaries are calculated in the usual way. Total output
(XXD9) includes a tourist-related component calculated at the same
ratio to employment as the rest of the industry.
303: XXDW = C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-l)*
R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l)
304: XXDRNT = C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*
R.DPI8N(-l)+C76E*R.DPI8X(-l)
305: LOG(EMDW) = C77A+C77B*LOG(XXDW)
306: LOG(EMDRNT) = C75A+C75B*LOG(XXDRNT)
307: EMDR = EMDRNT+EMDTOUR
308: LOG(WRDW/PDRPI) = C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C78C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))+
C78E*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2))
309: LOG(WRDR/PDRPI) = C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+(+C79D)*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))+C79E* .
LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2))
310: EMDTOUR = PTOURD*EMTOUR
311: EMD9 = EMDRNT+EMDW+EMDTOUR
312: WSD9 == (EMDRNT+EMDTOUR)*WRDR/lOOO+EMDW*WRDW/1000
313: WRD9 = WSD9/EMD9*1000
314: XXD9 = (XXDW+XXDRNT)/(EMDW+EMDRNT)*EMD9
315: XXDR = XXD9-XXDW
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Services employment consists of four components: support sector
(EMS8NT). tourism (EMTOUR) • business services (EMSB) • and Native
corporations (not explicit). Output of support sector services
(XXS8NT) and business-related services (XXSB) is determined by
functions of disposable personal income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X) and
average wealth (WEALTH). Employment in each of these sectors is a
function of output.
Tourism-related employment (EMSTOUR) is a constant portion of
total tourist employment (EMTOUR). Separate wage rates are
calculated for business services (WRSB) and other services net of
business services (WRSNB).
Native corporation-related employment equals Native corporation
wages and salaries (NCWS) divided by the average wage rate for the
whole industry (WRS9).
Industry wages and salaries are calculated 1n the usual way.
Total output is the same ratio to total employment as is output
Ln the support and business service components of the industry.
320: XXS8NT = C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8X(-l)+C84D*
WEALTH(-l)*POP(-1)
321: XXSB = C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-l)+C83E*
WEALTH(-l)*POP(-1)
322: LOG(EMS8NT) = C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT)
323: LOG(EMSB) = C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB)
324: LOG(WRSNB/PDRPI) = C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C86C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C86D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))+
C86E*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2))
325: LOG(WRSB/PDRPI) = C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88E*D61.70+C88B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C88D*
LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))+C88G*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2))
326: EMSTOUR = PTOURS*EMTOUR
327: EMS9l = EMSB+EMS8NT+EMSTOUR
328: WSS9l == (EMS8NT+EMSTOUR)*WRSNB/l000+EMSB*WRSB/1000
B-21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
329: WSS9 == WSS9l+NCWS
330: EMS9 = EMS9l+NCWS/(WRS9*1000)
331: WRS9 = WSS91/EMS91*1000
332: XXS9 = (XXS8NT+XXSB)/(EMS8NT+EMSB)*EMS9
Federal Government (**GF)
Federal government employment (EMGF) is the sum of civilian
(EMGC) and military (EMGM) employment, both of which are determined
in the growth "scenario." Output (XXGF) is a function of
employment. A wage rate for civilian employment is calculated
(which is not responsLve to local market conditions), and the
military . wage rate is a fixed proportion of the civilian wage
(PCIVPY). Wages and salaries are calculated in the usual way. _
333: EMGF = EMGM+EMGC
334: LOG(XXGF) = Cl01A+Cl01B*LOG(EMGF)
335: LOG(WRGC/PDRPI) = ~89A+LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
336: WRGM = WRGC*PCIVPY
337: WSGC = WRGC*EMGC/1000
338: WSGM = WRGM*EMGM/1000
339: WSGF == WSGC+WSGM
340: WRGF = WSGF/EMGF*lOOO
B-22
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Construction (**CN)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Employment in the construction industry is in four categories:
two endogenous cateogries (EMCNl)--support and government
expenditure related--and two types of basic employment (EMCNX).
Support sector output (XXCN8) is a function of disposable personal
income (R.DPI8N and R.DPI8X). To this is added the value of capital
expenditures made by state government (XXVACAP) to get total
endogenous output (XXCNl). Endogenous employment (EMCNl) is a
function of this output.
Basic employment consists of normal wage basic employment
(EMCNX2) which receives the same wage as support sector and
government-related construction employment (WRCNNP) and premium wage
construction employment (EMCNXl) which is defined as remote site,
specialized employment commanding a high annual wage (WRCNP). This
wage is a multiple of the regular wage (PIPADJ). Wages and salaries
for the industry are calculated in the usual way.
Premium wage employment interacts with several other model
components. First, it directly affects wage rates and the price
level in most other industries through the variable EMCNRT, which is
a measure of excess demand in the labor market. Second, it forms
the basis for the special component of disposable personal income,
R. DPI8X, which is a variable in some of the equations explaining
support sector output. Third, it is the determinant of whether the
proxy variable PIPE, which measures large exogenous shocks to the
economy, takes on a value of one.
260: EMCNRT = IF EMCNX1*3 LT EMCNl(-1) THEN 0 ELSE
EMCNX1/(EM98-EMCNX1)
261: PIPE == IF EMCNXl-EMCNXl(-1) GT 5 THEN 1 ELSE 0
262: XXCN8 = C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54C*R.DPI8X+C54D*
R.DPI8X(-l)+C54E*D64.65
263: XXCNl = XXCN8+XXVACAP
264: LOG(EMCNl) = C56A+C56B*LOG(XXCN1)
265: EMCNX = EMCNXl+EMCNX2
266: EMCN = EMCNl+EMCNX
267: XXCN = EMCN/EMCNl*XXCNl
B-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
268: LOG(WRCNNP/PDRPI) = C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C59C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C59D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-l))+
C59E*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2))
269: WRCNP = WRCNNP*PIPADJ
270: WSCN = (EMCNl+EMCNX2)*WRCNNP/1000+EMCNXl*WRCNP/1000
271: WRCN = WSCN/EMCN*lOOO
272: WSCNP = EMCNXl*WRCNP/1000
State and Local Government (**GA)
Government expenditures on wages and salaries at the state
(WSGS) and local (WSGL) levels are determined by the operating
budgets of state and local government, respectively. Wage rates are
calculated for state government (WRGS) and local government (WRGL)
in the usual way. Employment is calculated as total wages and
salaries divided by the wage rate for state (EMGS) and local
government (EMGL). Output in the combined state and local
government sector (XXGA) is a function of combined employment (EMGA).
341: LOG(WRGS/PDRPI) = C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C92C*D61. 73
342: EMGS = WSGS/WRGS*lOOO
343: LOG(WRGL/PDRPI) = Cl02A+Cl02F*D.80DEC6+Cl02D*D61.69+
Cl02C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+Cl02B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
344: EMGL = WSGL/WRGL*lOOO
345: EMGA = EMGS+EMGL
346: WSGA = WSGS+WSGL
347: WRGA = WSGA/EMGA*lOOO
348: LOG(XXGA) = Cl04A+Cl04B*LOG(EMGA)
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Tourism
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The number of tourists (TOURIST) is determined 1n the growth
"scenario." Total employment in tourism (EMTOUR), consisting of
portions of the trade, services, and transportation industries,
grows as a function of the number of tourists.
376: LOG(EMTOUR) = PTOURB+PTOURE*LOG(TOURIST)
Fish Harvesting
Employment 1n fish harvesting (EMFISH) is determined in the
growth "scenario." It is allocated by a proportion (PFISHl) into a
wage and salary component (EMAFISH) and a proprietor component which
consists of all fishermen who do not work for a wage (EMPROFIS).
Wages and salaries paid to those fishermen who earn a wage is
calculated as part of the Agricultural-Forestry-Fishery-Unclassified
(**A9) industry. Other fishermen earn proprietor income (PIPROF),
which is constant in real per fisherman terms at the present level.
238: PIPROF = EMPROFIS*(4.523*(PDRPI/340))
360: EMPROFIS = PFISHl*EMFISH
361: EMAFISH = (1-PFISHl)*EMFISH
B-25
Proprietor Activity
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Proprietor activity (all non-wage and -salary activity) consists
of fish harvesting and all other proprietor activity. Fish
harvesting employment (EMPROFIS) and income (PIPROF) are determined
by total fish harvesting activity.
Other employment (EMPROl) is a function of all wages and salary
employment (EM98). Personal income associated with this employment
(PIPROl) grows with the level of employment in nonfish processing
proprietor activity.
Total proprietor employment (EMPRO) and income (PIPRO) are each
the sum of their component parts.
237: PIPROl*lOO/PDRPI = C45A+C45B*EMPR0l+C45C*D61.66+C45D*D79
239: PIPRO == PIPROl+PIPROF
359: LOG(EMPROl) = Cl00A+Cl00C*D61.66+Cl00B*LOG(EM98)
362: EMPRO = EMPROl+EMPROFIS
Total Employment
Total wage and salary employment (EM98) is defined as the sum of
civilian employment covered by unemployment insurance 1n all
industries (EM97) plus military employment (EMGM). Total employment
(EM99) includes, in addition to employment covered by unemployment
insurance and the military, proprietor employment (EMPRO). Total
civilian employment (EM96) is net of military employment.
Note that tourism employment (EMTOUR) is all subsumed within the
transportation, trade, and service sectors. Also, fish harvesting
employment (EMFISH) is divided into wage and salary and proprietor
components.
353: EM98 = EMP9+EMCN+EMM9+EMT9+EMCM+EMPU+EMD9+EMFI+
EMS9+EMGF+EMGA+EMA9
354: EM97 = EM98-EMGM
363: EM99 == EM98+EMPRO
364: EM96 = EM99-EMGM
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Total Output
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Total output (XX98) includes all industries except nonfish
harvesting-related proprietor activity.
3 77: XX98 = XXP9+XXCN+XXM9+XXT9+XXCM+XXPU+XXD9+XXFI+
XXS9+XXGF+XXGA+XXA9
Total Wages and Salaries
Total wages and salaries (WS98) is the sum of the wages and
salaries paid in all industries and is thus net of proprietor
income. Nonagricultural wage and salary employment (WS97) excludes
military wages and salaries. The average wage rate for total (WR98)
and nonagricultural (WR97) wages and salaries are calculated.
355: WS98 = (WRP9*EMP9+WRCN*EMCN+WRM9*EMM9+WRT9*EMT9+WRCM*
EMCM+WRPU*EMPU+WRD9*EMD9+WRFI*EMFI+WRS9*EMS9+WRGF*
EMGF+WRGA*EMGA+WRA9*EMA9)/1000.
356: WS97 = WS98-WSGM
357: WR98 = WS98*1000/EM98
358: WR97 == WS97*1000/EM97
B-2 7
Personal Income
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MaP Documentation
May 1983
Personal income by place of residence (PI) is built up from
wages and salaries. It includes, in addition to wages and salaries
(WS98), other labor income (PIOLI); proprietor income (PIPRO);
dividends, interest, and rents (PIDIR); and transfers (PITRAN); it
is net of both social security contributions (PISSC) and a residency
adjustment (PIRADJ). Other labor income is a function of wages and
salaries, as are social security contributions. Dividends, interest,
and rents are a function of disposable income. Transfers consist of
an exogenous state government component (EXTRNS) and all others
(PITRANl). Endogenous transfers grow with the growth ~n the
population over 65 (POPGER).
Personal income prior to netting out the residence adjustment ~s
calculated (PIS). The residency adjustment ~s a function of
employment.
232: PIDIR = C51A+C51B*(DPI+DPI(-l)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPI(-4))
233: PITRANl = IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 500.245 ELSE
PITRANl(-1)/POPGER(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)*POPGER
234: PITRAN/PDRPI = IF YR GT 1980 THEN PITRANl/PDRPI+EXTRNS/
PDRPI ELSE C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI
235: PIOLI C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-l)
236: PISSC = Cl06A+Cl06B*(WS98-WSCNP)
240: PIS = WS98+PIOLI+PIPRO-PISSC+PIDIR+PITRAN
246: PIRADJ*lOO/PDRPI = Cl03A+Cl03B*EMCNXl+Cl03C*EM97
247: PI= PI8-PIRADJ
B-28
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Components of Real Disposable Personal Income
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Disposable personal income (DPI) is personal 1ncome net of
federal (RTPIF), state (RTISCP), and local (DPIRES) income-related
taxes paid by Alaskan residents. Disposable personal income before
the residency adjustment is also calculated (DPI8). This definition
of disposable income is used to construct two real disposable income
measures. One (R.DPI8X) 1s the real disposable personal income
associated with premium wage construction employment. The other
(R.DPI8N) includes all other real disposable personal income.
254: DPI = PI-RTPIF-RTISCP-DPIRES+RTISXX
255: DPI8 = DPI+PIRADJ
258: R.DPI8N = DPI8*100/PDRPI-R.DPI8X
259: R.DPI8X = DPI8/PI8*WRCNP*EMCNX1/10/PDRPI
Price Indexes
There are three price indexes used in the model. The most
important, PDRPI, is an index for deflating consumer prices to the
1967 U.S. level. At each point in time, this index is ~qual to the
U.S. consumer price index, PDUSCPI, multiplied by the ratio of
prices in Anchorage and the United States as measured by the Bureau
of Labor Statistics moderate-family budget, PDRATIO. This ratio is
a negative function of the growth in the size of the support sector
of the economy as reflected by employment in trade, finance, and
services as well as transportation, communication, and public
utilities, EMSP. It is a pos1t1ve function of tightness in the
local labor market as reflected in the variable EMCNRT, which is the
proportion of total employment accounted for by high wage, exogenous
construction.
A price deflator for state government operating expenditures,
PDEXOPS, is a weighted average of government wage rates, WRGA, and
the nonpersonnel expenditure price level using PDRPI as a proxy. A
price deflator for capital expenditures is based upon the wage rate
in construction (nonpipeline), WRCNNP.
Many variables are deflated to a 1982 Alaska base using the 1982
level of PDRPI. All such variables have the prefix DF.
B-29
4:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PDRATIO = IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 1.296 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1981
THEN 1.266 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 1.262 ELSE (IF
RTIS(-2)-RTIS(-1) NE 0 AND RTIS(-2) EQ 0 THEN
PDRATIO(-l)+C67A*(EMSP-EMSP(-l))/EMSP(-l)+C67B*(EMCNRT/
(EM98(-l)/(EM98-EMCNX1)))-C67C ELSE PDRATIO(-l)+C67A*
(EMSP-EMSP(-l))/EMSP(-l)+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-l)/
(EM98-EMCNX1))))))
5: PDRPI = PDRATIO*PDUSCPI
6: PDEXOPS = WSGSFY(-1)/EXOPS(-l)*(WRGA*lOO/PWRBASE)+
(EXOPS(-1)-WSGSFY(-1))/EXOPS(-l)*PDRPI
7: PDCON = Cl07A+Cl07B*WRCNNP
National Variables
Real per capita disposable personal income in the United States
(PR.DPIUS), the USCPI (PDUSCPI), .and the average weekly wage in the
United States (WEUS) each grow at exogenous rates. These are as
follows: GRDIRPU, GRUSCPI, and GRRWEUS.
1: PR.DPIUS = IF YR LT 1982 THEN PR.DPIUl ELSE
PR.DPIUS(-1)* (l+GRDIRPU)
2: PDUSCPI = IF YR LT 1982 THEN PDUSCPil ELSE
PDUSCPI(-1)* (l+GRUSCPI)
3: WEUS = IF YR LT 1982 THEN WEUSl ELSE
WEUS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRRWEUS)
B-30
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.3. Description of the Fiscal Module
of the MAP Economic Model
There are four categories of state government revenues.
Petroleum-related revenues are exogenously provided from information
on production, wellhead price, and other characteristics. Endogenous
revenues are functionally related directly to the level of economic
activity in the economy. Federal transfers are a function of
prices, and fund earnings are determined by the balances in the
general and Permanent Funds.
Total state government operating expenditures, operating
expenditures Qy program, and capital expenditures can be determined
by a variety of rules specified by the model user. These include
the choice of the spending limit, historical relationships, simple
growth rates, or relating spending to specific variables like
population or the size of tne general fund balance.
Local government revenues consist of state-local transfers,
federal-local transfers, and endogenously generated revenues.
Expenditures are determined by income and population.
Government expenditures affect the private economy primarily·
through wage and salary payments and purchases of capital. In
addition, government personal income taxes and transfers determine
what proportion of income is retained by individuals as disposable
personal income.
Data sources for the fiscal model are primarily the Executive
Budget and Annual Financial Report of the Department of
Administration, Revenue Sources of the Department of Revenue, and
the various state and local government fiscal summaries of the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
State fiscal activity can be analyzed in terms of revenues and
expenditures moving through the various state funds. The general
structure of these accounts are shown in Tables B.3 and B.4. The
most important of these funds are the general fund and the Permanent
Fund, although there are a number of smaller funds which affect the
level of economic activity stimulated by government spending. These
include the Enterprise Funds, Capital Projects Funds, Special
Revenue Funds, and Loan Funds.
B-31
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE B.3. STATE REVENUES
Unrestricted General Fund Revenues
GENERAL FUND EARNINGS
PERMANENT FUND EARNINGS DISTRIBUTED
TO GENERAL FUND
PETROLEUM REVENUES
severance taxes
property taxes
corporate income taxes
unclassified petroleum
petroleum revenues net
of Permanent Fund contribution
bonuses
rents and royalties
federal shared royalties
ENDOGENOUS REVENUES
Nonpetroleum Taxes
corporate income tax
personal income tax
business license tax
motor fuel tax
alcohol tax
ad valorem tax
cigarette tax (net of
special fund allocation)
school tax
miscellaneous
Other
fees and licenses
ferry receipts
miscellaneous
STATE ANCSA PAYMENTS*
Restricted General Fund Revenues
FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID TO GENERAL FUND
MISCELLANEOUS RESTRICTED GENERAL
FUND REVENUES
RSGFBM
RSIG
RSIPGF
RP9SGF
RPTS
RPPS
RTCSPX
RP9X
RPBSGF
RPRYGF
RSFDNPXG
RSENGF
RTCSl
RTIS
RTBS
RTMF
RTAS
RTVS
RTCIS
RTSS
RTOTS
ROFTS
ROFERS
RMIS
(SANCSA}
RSGFRS
RSFDN
RMISRES
*Net out this item before calculation of General Fund revenues.
Note: In this formulation. all Permanent Fund earnings not
retained pass through the general fund.
B-32
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TABLE 8.3. (continued)
Total General Fund Revenues
(Restricted + Unrestricted)
Total General Fund Revenues Including Inter-
agency Receipts (Restricted and Unrestricted)
Permanent Fund Revenues (not including
special appropriations)
statutorally required
contributions
reinvestment of earnings
EXPFNEW
EXPFREIN
Total Revenues (General Fund [restricted and
unrestricted] + Permanent Fund)
petroleum RP9S
fund earnings RSIN
federal transfers RSFDN
endogenous
Enterprise Fund Revenues
Special Fund Revenues
Total Petroleum Revenues (General Fund
+ Permanent Fund)
severance taxes
property tax
corporate income tax
unclassified taxes
bonuses
rents and royalties
federal shared royalties
8-33
RSEN
RPTS
RPPS
RTCSPX
RP9X
RPBS
RPRY
RSFDNPX
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
RSGF
RSGF + EXINREC
EXPFCONl
R99S
RSIAS
RSFS
RP9S
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
TABLE 8.4. STATE EXPENDITURES
Expenditure Limit EXLIM
Add:
Operations (net of
debt service)
Nonoperations
capital
subsidy
Debt Service
Permanent Fund Dividends
EXGFCAP
EXSUBS
Special Capital Appropriations
Special Permanent Fund Contributions
EXGFOPER-EXDSS
EXDSS
EXTRNS
EXSPCAP
EXPFCONX
Equals: General Fund Unrestricted Expenditures EXGFBM
Operations
Capital
Subsidy
Permanent Fund Dividends
Minus: Special Permanent Fund Contributions
EXGFOPER
EXGFCAP
EXSUBS
EXTRNS
EXPFCONX
Add: Federal Grants-in-Aid to General Fund
Miscellaneous Restricted General Fund Revenues
RSFDN
RMISRES
Equals: Total General Fund Expenditures
Minus: Subsidy
Add:
Special Capital Appropriations
General Fund Capital
Permanent Fund Dividend
Interagency Receipts
Special Fund Receipts
Enterprise Fund Receipts
Non-General Fund University
of Alaska Receipts
Equals: Total Operating Budget
Operations
Debt Service
Non-General Fund
U of A Receipts
B-34
EXGF
EXSUBS
EXSPCAP
EXGFCAP
EXTRNS
EXINREC
RSFS
RSIAS
PARNONGF * EXUA
EXOPS
EXDSS
PARNONGF * EXUA
EXBUD
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TABLE B.4. (continued)
Add: Capital Expenditures
general fund
capital projects fund
{bond sales and
federal grants)
Special Capital Expenditures
Subsidy
Permanent Fund Dividends
Equals: Total State SEending
EXGFCAP
EX CPS
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
EX CAP
EXSPCAP
EXSUBS
EXTRNS
EX99S
Note: In this formulation, all Permanent Fund earnings not retained,
pass through general fund .
B-35
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Two constant difficulties in modeling state fiscal behavior are
the lack of consistency in the data among the primary sources
utilized and the evolution over time in programs, organizational
structure, and methods and formats for the presentation of data.
This evolution is often rapid and radical.
In order to obtain a complete picture of state government fiscal
activities, three major sources of data--the Department of Revenue
Revenue Sources and Petroleum Production Revenue Forecast, the
Department of Administration Annual Financial Report, and the Office
of the Governor Budget Document--as well as a number of other data
sources are used. Different accounting conventions as well as
different definitions of such i terns as the general fund balance,
general fund revenues, etc. , among these sources and also between
these sources and other sources of information on government fiscal
activity such as the legislature make it impossible, particularly
during periods of rapid growth in government activity reflected in
the appearance of new programs, to model state fiscal activity
consistently from the perspective of all data sources. The guiding
principle in the development and evolution of the fiscal model is
that it be the best consistent representation of all fiscal aspects
of state government and clearly incorporate into its structure the
most important linking mechanisms between state spending, fund
balances, and the size and composition of the private economy.
The general fund is the main state government fund into which
the majority of state revenues flow and from which general
appropriations for government operations, including capital
expenditures, and transfers to local governments originate.
Unappropriated funds accumulate in the general fund until they are
appropriated and spent. These funds are, in general, available for
any purpose, with two exceptions. First, a large portion of general
fund appropriations fund entitlement programs which are budgeted on
the basis of formulas linked to population, price l~vel, and other
economic and demographic variables. The formulas may be altered by
law, but absent such changes, these program budgets will vary
automatically with economic and demographic change. Second, a
portion of general fund revenues termed "restricted" consists of
federal grants-in-aid, interagency receipts, and other minor sources
of income that are restricted in use to certain programs. These
restricted revenues form a part of the overall budget but are not a
source of discretionary state spending.
The Permanent Fund is the other major fund of the state. A
constitutionally specified portion of state royalties and bonuses
from the sale and production of natural resources, principally
petroleum, is deposited in the Permanent Fund. These deposits can
be supplemented by special contributions and the reinvestment of
earnings. Fund earnings can also be transferred to the general fund
or also directly into a cash distribution program.
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
State government activity affects the private economy in several
ways which are listed and described in Table B.S.
TABLE B.S. LINKS BETWEEN FISCAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
WSGS State government wages and salaries combine with a state
government wage rate to determine employment. The level of
wages and salaries is a function of both the size and
composition of the state operating budget.
XXVACAP The value added by state-funded capital construction
contributes to the total value added of the construction
industry. Value added is a function of the size and
composition of the state capital budget.
EXTRNS
EXSUBS
WSGL
Permanent Fund dividends increase individual disposable
personal income.
State personal income tax payments reduce individual
disposable personal income.
Transfers from state to local government increase local
spending and reduce state spending. State spending is
reduced by education transfers, tax sharing, revenue
sharing, and miscellaneous transfers. Local spending is
increased by education transfers, exogenous transfers, and
municipal assistance payments.
State subsidy programs have no economic
is essentially a long-run model.
discretionary income and stimulate
subsidized only in the short run.
impact because this
Subsidies increase
the activity being
Local government wages. and salaries combine with a local
government wage rate to determine employment. This is a
function of the size of the local government budget.
B-37
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
Modeling of local fiscal activity is subject to the same
problems of historical consistency and data availability as state
fiscal activity modeling. The main data source is the annual
reports on local government fiscal activity from the U.S. Department
of Commerce. The data in these documents is based upon survey
rather than census, and the definitions are not always consistent
with either the state of Alaska or the various local governments in
the state. The major problem area is linking of the state and local
fiscal sectors through the modeling of state-local transfers. Not
only have the programs themselves changed forms on an almost annual
basis in recent years, but the local response to increased state
assistance has varied by program. Local government can, and does,
both increase its programs and reduce local taxes when state aid
increases. These links consequently are modeled in a very general
way.
The level of local government activity is essentially determined
by state transfers and the demand for non-education goods and
services.
Fiscal Rule
The state ·fiscal model is guided by a "fiscal rule" which is a
set of user-specified parameters which control the level and
composition of state spending (and thus indirectly influence the
level of local government spending). The "fiscal rule" is necessary
because the size and composition of state appropriations is the
result of a political process which in years past has displayed no
stability or consistency. Consequently, the past cannot serve as an
adequate basis for modeling future spending.
In addition, the various functions of the model require that
alternative specifications of future state spending patterns be
available for particular analyses. Because of the large relative
size and economic importance of state spending in the Alaska
economy, it is important to be able to vary the pattern of state
spending when performing different analyses with the model.
Specifically, the model has been used for the following types of
analyses, each requiring a different formulation of the "fiscal
rule":
1. Projections of most likely levels of economic
activity. In these analyses, the most likely fiscal
behavior is assumed.
2. Fiscal policy analysis. In these analyses, the fiscal
and economic effects of particular fiscal policies are
examined, for example, the effects of the Permanent
Fund dividend distribution program.
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4.
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Aggregate spending analyses. In these analyses, the
fiscal and economic effects of different aggregate
state spending strategies are analyzed.
Public service demand analyses. In these analyses,
demand for public services determines the level of
spending. Demand can be in the form of population,
price level, personal income, exogenous growth rates,
or other variables.
Impact analyses. In these analyses, the f i seal and
economic effects of specific private sector economic
activities are examined. The state fiscal response to
a change in private sector activity can be specified
in a variety of ways.
Because of the constantly changing modeling requirements
mandated by different analyses as well as changing state fiscal
behavior, the "fiscal rules" are constantly changing, and although
this would appear to be a model weakness, it is actually a
reflection of the continuing instability and volatility within the
state fiscal sector.
At present, the "fiscal rule" is controlled by the spending
limit when revenues and fund balances are sufficient to spend the
amount allowed by the limit and by available revenues otherwise.
Table 8.6 shows the primary parameters (each is actually a vector of
values) which the user must select in choosing a "fiscal rule"
within the framework of the spending limit.
B-39
EXBOND
EXPFBAK
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
EXRLS
EXSPCAP
EXSPLITX
EXSUBS
RLTKS
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MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE B.6. PRIMARY PARAMETERS OF CHOICE
STATE "FISCAL RULE" FOR
SPENDING LIMIT CASE
proportion of total capital spending financed by general
obligation bonds and federal grants
percent of Permanent Fund earnings plowed back into the
Permanent Fund
Permanent Fund contributions appropriated from the
general fund
percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to general
fund which are distributed to individuals
policy switch for determination of state expenditure
growth based upon constitutionally imposed spending limit
special capital appropriations over the limit
the target allocation to operations when state spending
falls below the authorized spending limit
the level of state subsidies under programs initiated
since 1980
state-local revenue transfers net of education, revenue
sharing. and tax sharing
RTIS personal income tax
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State Fiscal Module Detail
Petroleum Revenues
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May 1983
Petroleum revenues (RP9S) are divided between the general fund
(RP9SGF) and the Permanent Fund which receives a portion (EXPFl) of
bonuses (RPBS), royalties (RPRY), and federal-shared royalties
(RSFDNPX). In addition to those sources of petroleum revenues split
between the general and Permanent Funds (RP7S), other petroleum
revenues consist of property taxes ( RPPS) , severance taxes ( RPTS) ,
corporate income taxes (RTCSPX), and miscellaneous (RP9X). All are
exogenous. The cumulative discounted value of petroleum revenues
from 1982 is calculated (DF.RSVP).
8: RP7S --RPBS+RPRY+RSFDNPX
9: RP9S --RP7S+RPPS+RPTS+RTCSPX+RP9X
10: RP9SGF-=; RP9S-EXPFl*RP7S
11: RPBSGF --(1-EXPFl)~RPBS
12: RPRYGF --(1-EXPFl)*RPRY
13: RSFDNPXG == (1-EXPFl)*RSFDNPX
14: DF.RSVP = IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE DF.RSVP(-l)+RP9S*
(PDRPIBAS/PDRPI)*(l/(l+RORDISK)**(YR-1981))
Personal Income Taxes (Including Federal and Local for Purposes of
Calculating Disposable Personal Income)
Although Alaska does not presently impose an income tax on
individuals, the personal income tax equations remain in the model
from the time when the tax was in force for several reasons. It is
possible to calculate what the tax receipts would be if reimposed,
the model structure is ready if it is reimposed~ and the similar
structure of the federal and state personal income taxes means it is
easier to calculate the federal tax receipts with some information
about the structure of the state tax.
Personal taxes netted out of income to arrive at disposable
.income include state income taxes paid by residents on a calendar-
year basis (RTISCP), federal income taxes (RTPIF), and local taxes
(DPIRES). Total calendar-year state income taxes {RTISC) and fiscal
year taxes (RTIS) are also calculated.
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The state income tax is calculated on a per-taxpayer basis
(RTISCA) using Alaska taxable income (ATI) and the number of
taxpayers (ATT). Alaska taxable income is derived from federal
adjusted gross income earned in Alaska (FAGI) by first netting out
nontaxable military pay (WSGM) and Native claims payments (ANCSA)
and adding in the taxable federal cost-of-living allowance (COLA) to
derive Alaskan adjusted gross income (AGI). This is next reduced by
exemptions (AEX) each of which has a value (VAEX) and deductions
(ATD).
Several policy variables allow for examination of changes in the
tax structure (TXBASE, TXRT, TXCRPC, TCRED). Finally, the
difference between tax receipts using the historical (pre-1978
schedule) and the structure under examination is calculated
(RTISLOS).
Federal adjusted gross income reported in Alaska (FAGII),
smaller than federal adjusted gross income earned in the state
because of transient workers, forms the base for federal personal
income tax collections.
15: LOG(FAGI) = C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNXl+EMP9)
16: LOG(FAGII) = C22A+C22B*LOG(PI)
17: COLA = (1-1/(l+PCOLART))*WSGC
18: AGI = FAGI+COLA-WSGM-PC12N*PC12RN*ANCSA*PCNC1
19: AEX*lOOO = Cl0A+ClOB*POPC+ClOC*(EMCNXl+EMP9)
20: ATT = C28A+C28B*(EM99-EMGM)+C28C*EMCNX1
21: LOG(ATD/ATT) = C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72
22: VAEX = IF YR LT 1980 THEN VAEXl ELSE VAEX(-1)*
(l+GRUSCPI)
23: ATI = AGI-AEX*VAEX-ATD
24: ATI.TT = ATI/ATT
25: LOG(RTISCAl) = C24A-TXBASE+C24B*(l-TXRT}*LOG(ATI.TT}
26: LOG(RTISCA2} = C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT)
27: RTISCA == IF YR GT 1984 THEN (IF EXTRNS+EXTRNS(-1) EQ 0
THEN EXRL5*(RTISCAl-TXCRPC*RTISCAl-TCRED/1000) ELSE 0}
ELSE (IF YR LT 1979 THEN RTISCAl-TXCRPC*RTISCAl-TCRED/
1000 ELSE 0}
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28: RTISLOS == (RTISCA2-RTISCA)*ATT
29: RTISC = RTISCA*ATT
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May 1983
30: RTIS = IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISC(-l)+C25B*
RTISC
31: RTISCP = Cl05A+ClOSB*PI8+ClOSC*RTISC
32: LOG(RTPIF/ATT) = C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/
ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)+C26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/
1000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)
33: DPIRES = C27A+C27B*PI3+C27C*WSCNP
Other Taxes
A number of other
taxes. Of these, the
composed of petroleum
(RTCSl), and exogenous
activities (RTCSX).
small taxes complete the modeling of state
most important is the corporate income tax
industry taxes (RTCSPX), endogenous taxes
taxes associated with some future large
The gross receipts tax (RTBS) has been largely eliminated since
1979, but its structure is still modeled using business licenses
(BL) and gross receipts (GR) as the tax base. From the latter,
gross taxable receipts (GTR) are calculated. Only a fraction
(PBLTBL) of revenues which would have been received prior to 1980
are now collected.
The motor fuel tax {RTMF) is next in order of importance. It is
a function of the volume of fuel oil sales (THG) which, in turn, is
a product of the number of vehicles on the road (TPTV) and average
consumption per vehicle (AHG).
Other endogenous taxes are ad valorem taxes, which are similar
to a gross receipts tax but levied only on insurance companies and
public utilities (RTVS), alcohol (RTAS) and cigarette (RTCIS) sales
taxes, and the school tax (RTSS) which was eliminated in 1981.
Finally, there is a residual category of other taxes (RTOTS)
consisting of fish processing taxes and miscellaneous small revenue
producers.
Total taxes (RT99) includes revenues to both the general and
Permanent Funds but excludes a portion of cigarette taxes (PECIG)
earmarked for a special revenue fund.
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40: LOG{RTCSl*lOO/PDRPI) = C43A+C43C*D64.65+C43B*LOG{EMP9
{-l)+EMCN{-l)+EMM9{-l)+EMT9{-l)+EMCM(-1)+EMPU{-1))
41: RTCS == RTCSl+RTCSPX+RTCSX
34: LOG(BL) = C39A+C39B*LOG{XX98-XXP9)
35: LOG(GR) = C40A+C40B*LOG(XX98)
36: RTBSl == {BL+BL(-1))*1000/2*BTRATE
37: GTR = GR-BL{-l)*PNTGR*lOOO
38: LOG{RTBS2*10**3/BL{-1)) = C29A+C29B*LOG{GTR{-1)*
10**3/BL{-1))
39: RTBS == IF YR GE 1979 THEN RTBSl+RTBS2*PBLTBL ELSE
RTBSl+RTBS2
42: TPTV = C38A+C38B*POP
43: LOG{AHG) = C37A+C37B*LOG{PR.PI)
44: THG == AHG*TPTV
45: LOG{RTMF) = C46A+C46B*LOG{THG)
46: LOG{RTVS) = C47A+C47B*LOG{R.DPI8N{-1))
47: LOG(RTAS) = C48A+C48B*LOG{R.DPI{-l))
48: LOG{RTCIS) = C49A+C49B*LOG{R.DPI(-1))
49: RTSS = IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50B*{EM99-EMGM)
50: RTOTS = RTOTS{-l)*{l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
51: RT99 == RTIS+RTCS+RPPS+RPTS+RP9X+RTBS+RTMF+RTAS+
{1-PECIG)*RTCIS+RTVS+RTSS+RTOTS
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State Investment Earnings
State investment earnings from all state funds (RSIN), the
general fund (RSIG), Permanent Fund (RSIP), and a (hypothetical)
development fund (RSID) are calculated based upon the balance in
each fund in the previous year and a real rate of return specific to
each fund. They are as follows: general fund--ROR, Permanent
Fund--ROR+RORPPF, development fund--ROR-RORPDF.
Net earnings of each fund,
inflation, is also calculated for
RSIGNET, RSINNET).
after
each
accounting for
fund (RSIPNET,
Alaskan
RSIDNET,
A portion (EXPFBAK) of the earnings of the Permanent Fund remain
in that fund while the remainder (RSIPGF) is transferred to the
general fund either for the dividend program or general
appropriations.
57: RSIP == (ROR+GRUSCPI+RORPPF)*BALPF(-1)
58: RSIPGF == (1-EXPFBAK)*RSIP
59: RSID --(ROR+GRUSCPI-RORPDF)*BALDF(-1)
60: RSIG --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BALGF(-1)
61: RSIN --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BAL99(-l)+RORPPF*BALPF(-l)-
RORPDF*BALDF(-l)
62: RSIPNET == (ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-l)+RORPPF)*
BALPF(-1)
63: RSIDNET == (ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1)-RORPDF)*
BALDF(-1)
64: RSIGNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-l))*BALGF(-1)
65: RSINNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1))*BAL99+
RORPPF*BALPF(-1)-RORPDF*BALDF(-1)
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Other State General Fund Unrestricted Revenues
Licenses and fees CROFTS) consist of auto licenses and fees
(ROFAS) and business and some nonbusiness licenses and fees (ROFOS).
State ferry income (RFERS) is a component of general fund revenues.
The final element is miscellaneous nontax revenues consisting of
such things as nonpetroleum royalties and user fees.
Total unrestricted general fund revenues (RSGFBM) is the sum of
taxes and other revenues defined to include any Permanent Fund
earnings not retained in the fund as well as any withdrawals from
the (hypothetical) development fund (EXDFWITH).
Total general fund unrestricted revenues can be divided into
four categories: petroleum (RP9SGF), general fund earnings (RSIG),
Permanent Fund earnings transferred to the general fund (RSIPGF),
and endogenous revenues (RSENGF).
52: LOG(ROFAS) = C30A+C30B*LOG(TPTV(-l))
53: LOG(ROFOS) = C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-l))
54: ROFTS == ROFAS+ROFOS
55: ROFERS = ROFERS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
56: LOG(RMIS) = C35A+C3SB*LOG(PI3(-l))
66: RSGFBM = RT99+(1-EXPFl)*RP7S+ROFTS+ROFERS+RSIG+(l-
EXPFBAK)*RSIP+RMIS+EXDFWITH
81: RSENGF == RSGFBM-RP9SGF-RSIPGF-RSIG
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Revenues Outside the Unrestricted General
Fund and Revenue Totals
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May 1983
Total general fund revenues (RSGF) consist of restricted
(RSGFRS) and unrestricted (RSGFBM) funds. Restricted funds include
federal program augmentation (RSFDN) and state program augmentation
as well as miscellaneous restricted receipts (RMISRES). These are
both categories for funds earmarked for specific purposes.
Total revenues (R99S) is defined to include general fund
revenues, Permanent Fund revenues, (hypothetical) development fund
earnings, all net of state required ANCSA payments (SANCSA), which
were completed in 1981. Since deposits and withdrawals can occur
between these funds, double counting must be avoided.
Revenues into two other small families of funds are calculated.
Special revenue funds (RSFS) consist of some special fees and
licenses (RSFFS), a portion (PECIG) of cigarette taxes, and some
miscellaneous items like federal revenue sharing. The international
airport enterprise fund (RSIAS) is the final category.
From total revenues (R99S), a number of subtotals can be
net of all Permanent Fund
of federal transfers (R99SON),
petroleum (NONPET), total net of
(RSEN).
calculated. These include total
contributions (R99SNT), total net
total net of all fund earnings and
petroleum (NONRP9S), and endogenous
67: RSFDN =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 187.968 ELSE RSFDNX+RSFDN
(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
68: RMISRES =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 16.739 ELSE RMISRES(-1)*
(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
69: RSGFRS == RSFDN+RKISRES
70: RSGF = RSGFBM+RSGFRS
71: R99S = RSGF+EXPFl*RP7S+EXPFBAK*RSIP+(RSID-EXDFWITH)-
SANCSA
72: LOG(RSFFS) = C58A+C58B*LOG(POP(-l))
73: RSFSl = RSFS1(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
74: RSFS == PECIG*RTCIS+RSFFS+RSFSl
75: RSIAS =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 31.12 ELSE RSIAS(-1)*(1+
GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
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76: R99SNT --R99S-EXPFCON
77: R99SON --R99S-RSFDN
78: NON PET --R99S-RP9S-RSIN
79: NONRP9S === R99S-RP9S
80: RSEN == R99S-(RP9S-SANCSA)-RSIN-RSFDN
Permanent Fund and Development Fund (hypothetical)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Permanent fund contributions consist of three elements:
statutorially required contributions (EXPFNEW). reinvestment of
earnings (EXPFREIN). and general fund appropriations (EXPFCONX).
A development fund does not currently exist but has periodically
been suggested for the specific purpose of investing in Alaskan
infrastructure development. If it did. a certain portion of' excess
current account revenues plus annual investment earnings net of
withdrawals might form the annual contributions (EXDFCON).
Withdrawals might be a percentage of net earnings (EXDFPCNT).
82: EXPFCON = EXPFBAK*RSIP+EXPFl*RP7S+EXPFCONX
83: EXPFNEW == EXPFl*RP7S
84: EXPFREIN --EXPFBAK*RSIP
85: EXPFCONl --EXPFCON-EXPFCONX
86: EXDFCON == IF RSGFBM GT EXGFBK THEN EXDFl*(RSGFBK-
EXGFBM)+(RSID-EXDFWITH) ELSE RSID-EXDFWITH
87: EXDFWITH = EXDFPCNT*RSIDNET
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State Expenditures--Major Categories
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
The constitutional amendment establishing the expenditure limit
(EXLIM) places a ceiling on state expenditures except for debt
service, voter-approved capital expenditures, and supplementary
Permanent Fund contributions. The ceiling has been set at
$2.5 billion for 1982, and is annually adjusted for inflation and
population change. The allowable limit (EXLIMOK) may be less than
this if current revenues plus the balance in the general fund are
less than the spending limit ceiling. The difference .between these
amounts is defined as the revenue gap (RSGFGAP).
The spending limit also reguires that no more than two-thirds of
expenditures be allocated toward operations, with at least one--third
for capital (EXSPLIT). If the limit is not in effect, this rule may
be inoperative, depending upon interpretation of the amendment.
Total operating expenditures (net of debt service) funded from
all sources (EXOPS) is consequently the operating portion of the
spending limit (EXLIMOK*EXSPLIT) plus operating expenditures funded
from sources not constrained by the limit. These sources are
interagency receipts (EXINREC), restricted general fund revenues
(RSFDN and RMISRES), special revenue fund receipts (RSFS), and the
international airport enterprise fund (RSIAS).
A number of other rules for determining state operating
expenditures are possible but are currenty not utilized. These
involve linking spending to demand factors such as income and
population, allowing spending to grow at some fixed rate, allowing
spending to grow as some function of a base case (BASEXOPS), or
spending some annuity amount (EXANSAV or EXSAVS).
Total capital expenditures (EXCAP) is similarly determined in
the current version of the model as capital expenditures allowed
under the limit (recognizing that a portion of what is categorized
as capital expenditures is more properly designated subsidies
[EXSUBS]), augmented by capital expenditures, funded not out of the
general fund but rather out of capital projects funds (EXCPS). The
proportion of capital projects thus funded (EXBOND) is set
exogenously. Special capital expenditures (EXSPCAP) are in addition
to this definition of capital expenditures.
As with the operating budget, several other options are
available, but not currently in use, for formulating state
government capital expenditure behavior. These alternatives
parallel those for the operating budget but include, in addition,
the alternative of programming capital spending to maintain a
specified level of real per capita state capital stock (PR.BALCP).
The other main elements of state spending currently are the
Permanent Fund dividend program (EXTRNS) and state subsidy programs
under the capital budget (EXSUBS). The dividends are determined as
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a proportion (EXPFDIST) of Permanent Fund earnings not reinvested
(RSIP*(l-EXPFBAK)). Subsidies are set exogenously to 1987 and then
equal half of the spending limit capital allotment or zero,
depending upon whether the current account balance of the general
fund is running negative. Interagency receipts (EXINREC) are a
function of the operating budget.
88: EXLIM = IF YR EQ 1982 THEN EXLIM82 ELSE EXLIM82*(PDRPI/
PDRPIBAS)*(POP/430)
89: EXLIMOK = IF YR LT 1985 THEN EXLIM ELSE IF RSGFBM-EXDSS
-EXTRNS + BALGF(-1) GT EXLIM THEN EXLIK ELSE
RSGFBM-EXDSS-EXTRNS
90: RSGFGAP --EXLIM-EXLIMOK
91: EXSPLIT ~= IF YR LT 1985 THEN 0.67 ELSE (IF RSGFGAP
GT 0 AND RSGFGAP(-1) GT 0 THEN EXSPLITX ELSE (IF
RSGFGAP GT 0 THEN 0.67+(EXSPLITX-0.67)/2 ELSE 0.67))
92: EXOPS = IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXOPSl ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIMOK*
EXSPLIT+EXINREC+RSFDN+RMISRES+RSFS+RSIAS)+EXRLl*(EXOPS
(-l)*(l+(EXELl*(POP(-l)/POP(-2)-l)+EXEL2*(PDEXOPS(-l)/
PDEXOPS(-2)-l)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-l)/PR.PI3(-2)-l)+EXEL4*
(PI(-l)/PI(-2)-l)+EXEL5*(PI3(-l)/PI3(-2)-l)+EXEL6*
((POP(-1)-EMCNXl(-1))/(POP(-2)-EMCNXl(-2))-1)))+
EXRLOP6*BALGFCP(-l)*(BALGFP(-l)/EXGF(-l)))+EXRLOP7*
(R99S(-l)-EXNOPS(-l)-EXSAVS)+EXRLOP8*(R99S(-l)-
EXNOPS(-l)-EXANSAV)+EXRL3*(l+GRRPCEX)*(EXOPS(-l)/
POP(-l)/PDEXOPS(-l)*POP*PDEXOPS)+EXRL2*EXOPS(-l)*
(l+GREXOPS)+EXRL4*(BASEXOPS+EXOPSIMP*(PDEXOPS*
(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX))))
93: EXANSAV = RP9S+RSIN-EXANNU*(l+RORANGRO)**(YR-1980)
94: EXSAVS = EXSAVX+EXPFCON+TXPTXX*RTISLOS
136: EXCAP = IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCAPI ELSE EXRLS*(EXLIMOK*
(l-EXSPLIT)-EXSUBS)/(l-EXBOND)+EXRL3*((l+GRSSCP)*
PR.BALCP(-l)*POP/1000-R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(l+RORCPDEP)))/
(100/PDCON)+EXRL2*(EXCAP(-l)*(l+GREXCAP))+EXRL4*
(BASEXCAP+EXCAPIMP*(PDCON*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*
(EMCNXl-BASEMCNX))))+EXRLl*(EXCAP(-l)*(l+EXELl*
(POP(-l)/POP(-2)-l)+EXEL2*(PDCON(-l)/PDCON(-2)-l)+
EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-l)/PR.PI3(-2)-l)+EXEL4*(PI(-l)/PI(-2)-
l)+EXEL5*(PI3(-l)/PI3(-2)-l)+EXEL6*((POP(-l)-EMCNX1
(-1))/(POP(-2)-EMCNXl(-2))-1)))
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133: EXTRNS = IF YR LT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN
425 ELSE RSIP*(l-EXPFBAK)*EXPFDIST)
134: EXINREC = Cl7A+Cl7B*(EXOPS-RLT99)
135: EXSUBS = IF YR LT 1988 THEN EXSUBSl ELSE (IF EXRL5 EQ 1
THEN (IF RSGFBM(-l)+RSGFBM(-2) LT EXGFBM(-l)+EXGFBM(-2)
OR EXSUBS(-1) EQ 0 THEN 0 ELSE EXLIMOK*(0.5*
(1-EXSPLIT))) ELSE EXSUBS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI))
State Expenditure Totals
Total general fund expenditures, including from restricted and
unrestricted accounts (EXGF), consists of operations including debt
service (but net of special revenue fund and international airport
fund revenues as well as interagency receipts) ( EXOPS+EXDSS-RSFS-
RSIAS-EXINREC), general fund capital expenditures (EXGFCAP) as well
as -special capital expenditures (EXSPCAP), and subsidies (EXSUBS)
and Permanent Fund dividends (EXTRNS). Unrestricted general fund
expenditures (EXGFBM) further nets out restricted revenues (RSFDN
and RMISRES) but includes special Permanent Fund contributions.
General fund operating expenditures (EXGFOPER) is total
unrestricted expenditures net of capital expenditures, subsidies,
dividends, and special Permanent Fund contributions. Operating
expenditures defined by the state budget (EXBUD) includes debt
service expenditures and nongeneral fund University of Alaska
receipts.
Two other variables
(EXNOPS) and operating
government (EXONTR).
calculated are nonoperating expenditures
expenditures net of tran~fers to local
155: EXGF = EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS-EXINREC+
EXGFCAP-RSFS-RSIAS
156: EX99S = EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS+EXCAP+
PARNONGF*EXUA
157: EXGFBM = EXGF+EXPFCONX-RSFDN-RMISRES
158: EXNOPS = EX99S-EXOPS
159: EXBUD == EXOPS+EXDSS+PARNONGF*EXUA
160: EXGFOPER == EXGFBM-EXTRNS-EXGFCAP-EXSUBS-EXSPCAP-
EXPFCONX
161: EXONTR == EXOPS+EXDSS-RLTE99-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTMS-RLTX
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State Operating Expenditure Detail
An initial estimate of state operating expenditures net of debt
service in each of nine functional categories (EXaaa4) is calculated
as a function of total operating expenditures. From these, the
ratio RATIOl is formed with total operating expenditures, and the
initial estimates are ratioed down or up so that the final values
(EXaaa) sum exactly to total operating expenditures. In the
commerce and economic development program (EXCDS), exogenous state
local transfers (RLTX) are added in before the adjustment occurs.
University of Alaska expenditures (EXUA) are a large part of the
total education budget and are thus calculated separately.
Personnel expenditures by program category (EXPRaaa) is a
function of expenditures. For two program categories, education and
commerce, this is net of transfers to local government. Preliminary
estimates of total education transfers (RLTE994), tax sharing
(RLTT94), and revenue sharing (RLTRS4) come from the local
government model. These· are adjusted for consistency with total
operating expenditures by RATIOl and then netted out of their
respective categories.
Total personnel expenditures (EXPR99) and state government wages
and salaries fiscal-year (WSGSFY) and calendar-year basis (WSGS)
follow. A variable, EXPRPER, allows an exogenous adjustment to the
ratio of total personnel expenditures and the sum of the components.
95-103: LOG(EXaaa4) = CbbA+CbbB*LOG(EXOPS)
104: RATIOl == EXOPS/(EXEDS4+EXSSS4+EXHES4+EXNRS4+EXPPS4+
EXJUS4+EXCDS4+RLTX+EXTRS4+EXGGS4)
105: EXUA =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 197.7 ELSE EXUA(-l)*(EXOPS/
EXOPS(-1))
106-113: EXaaa = RATIOl*EXaaa4
114: EXCDS = RATIOl*(EXCDS4+RLTX)
115: RLTE99 = RLTE994*RATI01
116: EXEDSNT == EXEDS-RLTE99
117: RLTT9 = RLTT94*RATI01
118: RLTRS = RLTRS4*RATI01
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119: EXCDSNT = EXCDS-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTX
120: EXPRCDS = C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
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May 1983
121: EXPREDS1 = C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT
122-129: EXPRaaa = C2A+C2B*EXaaa
130: EXPR99 = EXPRPER*(EXPREDS1+EXPRSSS+EXPRHES+EXPRNRS+
EXPRPPS+EXPRJUS+EXPRCDS+EXPRGGS+EXPRTRS+EXPRUA)
131: WSGSFY = PCWS1*EXPR99
132: LOG(WSGS) = C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75
B-53
State Capital Expenditure Detail
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Capital expenditures are divided into four categories according
to funding source and expenditure type. Highway and nonhighway
capital expenditures may be funded out of the general fund (EXGFCHY
and EXGFCNH) or from the capital projects fund which receives its
revenues from general obligation bond sales and federal capital
grants (EXCPSHY and EXCPSNH).
Each is a fixed portion of either general fund capital
expenditures (EXGFCAP) or capital project fund capital expenditures
(EXCPS). Total highway (EXHYCAP) and nonhighway (EXNHYCP) capital
expenditures are also calculated. Ferry capital expenditures
(EXCAPFR) are calculated separately since they represent purchases
outside the state.
The sources of revenues for the capital projects funds are
federal capital grants ( EXCPSFED) and general obligation bonds of
the state (EXCPSGOB). This latter funding source determines the
ongoing debt service requirement of the state (EXDSS) based upon the
schedule of debt outstanding from previous bond sales (EXDSSX) plus
debt service on debt newly incurred after 1982 (DEBTP82). This new
debt is paid off at a constant rate over a twenty-year period, like
a mortgage, according to the capital recovery factor (RORCRF).
The measure of newly incurred debt represents the principal of
all debt incurred in the last twenty years. After that time, the
debt is subtracted from this total using EXCPSM lagged twenty
years. The proper measure of the current bonded debt of the state
is GODT, consisting of the schedule of debt outstanding from
previous bond sales (GODTX) and the remaining debt from bond sales
made after 1982. This debt is assumed paid off at the rate of
5 percent annually for twenty years.
The value added to the construction industry from state
government capital expenditures (XXVACAP) consists of the nominal
value of highway (XXVHY) and nonhighway (XXVNHY) value added,
deflated by the price deflator for construction (PDCON). Special
capital spending (EXSPCAP) contributes to nonhighway construction
value added.
137: EXGFCHY =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCHY1 ELSE 0.6*EXCAP*
{1-EXBOND)
138: EXGFCNH = IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCNH1 ELSE 0.4*EXCAP*
(1-EXBOND)
139: EXCPSHY = IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSHYl ELSE 0.25*EXCAP*
EXBOND
140: EXCPSNH =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSNH1 ELSE 0.75*EXCAP*
EXBOND
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141: EXHYCAP --EXGFCHY+EXCPSHY
142: EXNHYCP --EXGFCNH+EXCPSNH
143: EXGFCAP --EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH
144: EXCAPFR = EXCAPFR(-1)*(EXCAP/EXCAP(-1))
145: EXCPS = EXCPSHY+EXCPSNH
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
149: EXDSS = IF YR LT 1983 THEN EXDSSX ELSE EXDSSX+RORCRF*
DEBTP82(-1)
150: EXCPSFED =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 105.021 ELSE EXCPSFED
(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI)
151: EXCPSGOB --EXCPS-EXCPSFED
152: EXCPSH = IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE EXCPSGOB
153: DEBTP82 = IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE DEBTP82(-1)+
EXCPSGOB-EXCPSH(-20)
154: GODT = IF YR LT 1983 THEN GODTX ELSE GODTX+EXCPSM(-19)*
0.05+EXCPSM(-18)*0.1+EXCPSH(-17)*0.15+EXCPSM(-16)*0.2+
EXCPSM(-15)*0.25+EXCPSH(-14)*0.3+EXCPSM(-13)*0.35+
EXCPSM(-12)*0.4+EXCPSM(-11)*0.45+EXCPSM(-10)*0.5+
EXCPSM(-9)*0.55+EXCPSM(-8)*0.6+EXCPSH(-7)*0.65+
EXCPSM(-6)*0.7+EXCPSH(-5)*0.75+EXCPSH(-4)*0.8+EXCPSH
(-3)*0.85+EXCPSM(-2)*0.9+EXCPSH(-1)*0.95+EXCPSGOB
146: XXVHY = C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1))
147: XXVNHY = C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(-1)+EXSPCAP(-1)-
EXCAPFR(-2)+EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP-EXCAPFR(-1))
148: XXVACAP == (XXVHY+XXVNHY)/(PDCON/100)
B-55
State Fund Balances
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The model calculates balances in the general fund (BALGF), the
Permanent Fund (BALPF), and the development fund (currently
non-existent) (BALDF) as well as the sum of the three (BAL99).
Two measures of current account balance are also calculated.
The first is the current account balance for the unrestricted
general fund account, defined to include Permanent Fund dividends
(BALCABBM), and the second is the current account balance for the
general plus Permanent Fund accounts {BALCAB).
Two special indicators of the general fund balance are
calculated. The first shows only positive fund values (BALGFP).
The second shows positive changes in the balance (BALGFCP).
162: BALCAB ~~ R99S-EXGF
163: BALCABBM == RSGFBM-EXGFBM
164: BAL99 = IF YR LT 1982 THEN BAL991 ELSE (IF Y~ EQ 1982
THEN 3612 ELSE BAL99(-l)+R99S-EXGF)
165: BALGF = IF YR LT 1982 THEN BALGFl ELSE BAL99-BALPF-
BALDF
166: BALDF = IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALDFl ELSE BALDF(-1)+
EXDFCON
·167: BALPF = IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALPFl ELSE BALPF(-1)+
EXPFCON
168: BALGFP = IF BALGF LT 0 THEN 0 ELSE BALGF
169: BALGFCP = IF BALGF-BALGF(-1) GT 0 THEN BALGF-BALGF(-1)
ELSE 0
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State Capital Stock and Operations, Maintenance,
and Replacement Costs
The real value (R.BALCAP)
_capital stock (PR.BALCP) are
depreciation rate (RORCPDEP).
and real per capita value of
calculated on the basis of
the
the
A set of equations calculates the cost of operations and
maintenance (EXOM84) and replacement (EXRP84) of the state capital
stock put in place beginning in 1984 (BALCAP84). Operations and
maintenance is a constant proportion of the capital stock (EXOMCOST)
while replacement is the rate necessary to offset depreciation
(RORCPDEP). The running total for the capital stock put in place
beginning in 1984 is augmented annually by new additions to the
capital stock ( EXCAPNEW) . These annual new additions are net of
replacement capital, consisting of the replacement of the
depreciated pre-1984 capital stock in the annual amount of EXCAPOLD
and replacement of the new stock (EXRP84).
170: R.BALCAP = R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(l+RORCPDEP))+
EXCAP*lOO/PDCON
171: PR.BALCP = R.BALCAP*lOOO/POP
172: EXCAPREP == IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE RORCPDEP*BALCAP84
(-l)+EXCAPOLD*(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)
173: EXCAPNEW == IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXCAP-EXCAPREP
174: BALCAP84 = IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE BALCAP84(-1)*
PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)+EXCAPNEW
175: EXOK84 --BALCAP84(-l)*EXOKCOST
176: EXRP84 --RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-l)
8-57
Local Fiscal Module Detail
Local Revenues
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The primary sources of local government revenues (RL99) are the
local property tax {RLPT) and transfers from the state government
{RLT99).
Local Tax Revenues
The local property tax base has one component {LPTBl) which is
related to the level of personal income net of "enclave" employment
income. This component of the value of real property in the state
is based upon local assessments. A "full-value" assessment {LPTBlFV)
is calculated by the state for revenue sharing purposes and is
higher by the ratio of full value to local value {PARLVFV).
The second component of the local property tax base is the value
of petroleum-related capital equipment subject to_the state property
tax (PTBP9). This value is calculated by multiplying the tax (RPPS)
by the inverse of the tax rate {PTRTS). Only a small portion
(P9PTPER) of petroleum property actually lies within the boundaries
of local government, and it is this amount which is the actual base
for local taxes ( LPTBP9) . The complete local property tax base
(LPTB) is the sum of the endogenous component {LPTBl) and the
proportion (LPTRAT) of petroleum property within local boundaries
which is actually taxable because of the per capita maximum
valuation restriction. Local property tax receipts {RLPTl) is then
a function of the value of property. If there is exogenous activity
which generates additional property taxes, this is added {RLPTX) to
get a grand total ( RLPT). In addition, the model generates the
"full value" of local property (LPTBFV) which is the sum of
endogenous "full value" property and petroleum property within local
boundaries. Finally, the full value of personal property in the
state (PPVAL) is calculated as the full value of the local
endogenous base and the value of petroleum property. Other taxes
(RLOT) consist primarily of sales taxes.
177: LOG(LPTBl) = C51A+C57B~LOG(PI3(-l))+C57C*D7l.OO
178: LPTBlFV == LPTBl~l/PARLVFV
179: PTBP9 == RPPS~{l/PTRTS)
180: LPTBP9 == P9PTPER~PTBP9
181: LPTB = LPTBl+LPTBP9*LPTRAT
182: LPTBFV ~= LPTB1FV+LPTBP9
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183: PPVAL == LPTB1FV+PTBP9
184: RLPTl = Cl8A+Cl8B*LPTB
185: RLPT == RLPTl+RLPTX
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
186: LOG(RLOT*lOOO/POP(-1)) = C31A+C31B*LOG(PI(-1)*1000/POP(-l))
Local Transfers
The programs and formulas used to provide local government
assistance have changed considerably in recent years, making
modeling of these programs difficult. Preliminary values for all
types of local transfers are calculated based upon the formulas
currently used to determine transfer amounts {suffix 4). These are
subsequently adjusted using RATIOl for consistency with total state
operating expenditures.
Total transfers (RLT99) consist of five categories as follows:
tax sharing (RLTT9), revenue sharing (RLTRS)~, _education (RLTE99),
miscellaneous (RLTMS), and exogenous (RLTX).
The most important shared tax is a portion (PESLTC) of the
corporate tax before 1982. After 1981, this program was replaced by
the municipal assistance program (RLTMA). Other shared taxes are
portions of ad valorem taxes (RLTVS) and other taxes (RLTOT),
primarily the fish processing taxes.
State local revenue sharing (RLTRS) is a separate category of
assistance, and miscellaneous transfers (RLTMS) is'another.
Educational transfers is the largest category (RLTE99),
consisting of primary and secondary education transfers (RLTEA) and
other {nonprimary and nonsecondary) education transfers (RLTEB).
Primary and secondary education transfers are further divided into
the following categories: cigarette tax transfers (RLTEC),
Foundation program transfers (RLTEF), transportation transfers
{RLTET), and other education transfers (RLTEO). The Foundation
program is the basic program in support of education, and it 1 s
based upon the number of students (ADMSD) and the basic
instructional unit allotment (BIU) which is a basic funding level.
The number of students is calculated for district schools (ADMDIS)
and for the rural educational attendance area schools (ADMREA).
187: RLTCS4 = IF YR GT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE PESLTC*RTCSl
188: RLTVS4 C63A+C63B*RTVS
8-59
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MAP Documentation -
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189: RLTOT4 --PESLT*RTOTS
190: RLTMA4 = IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0
RLTMA(-1)/PDRPI(-1)/POP(-l)*POP*PDRPI
191: RLTT94 = RLTVS4+RLTOT4+RLTCS4+RLTMA4
192: RLTRS4 = RLTRS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
193: RLTMS = IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 50.887 ELSE (IF EXSUBS EQ 0
THEN 0 ELSE RLTKS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU))
194: RLTEC4 --PECIG*RTCIS
195: ADMDIS --PADl*POPSKUL(-1)
196: ADMREA == PAD2*POPSKUL(-1)
197: ADMSD = ADMDIS+ADMREA
198: BIU = IF YR LT 1980 THEN BIUl ELSE BIU(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)
ELSE
199: RLTEF4 = C36A+C36F*D81.00+D7l.OO*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD
200: RLTET4 = (POP/POP(-l)+PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-l)*RLTET(-1)
201: RLTE04 = RLTEO(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
202: RLTEA4 == RLTEC4+RLTEF4+RLTET4+RLTE04
203: RLTEB4 =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 7.5 ELSE RLTEB(-1)*
(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
204: RLTE994 = RLTEA4+RLTEB4
205: RLTCS = RLTCS4*RATI01
206: RLTVS --RLTVS4*RATI01
207: RLTOT --RLTOT4*RATI01
208: RLTMA = RLTMA4*RATI01
209: RLTEC --RLTEC4*RATI01
210: RLTEF --RLTEF4*RATI01
211: RLTET = RLTET4*RATI01
212: RLTEO = RLTE04*RATI01
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213: RLTEA := RLTEA4*RATI01
214: RLTEB : RLTEB4*RATI01
215: RLT99 : RLTT9+RLTRS+RLTE99+RLTMS+RLTX
Other Local Revenues
Other local revenues consist of
special petroleum-related federal
miscellaneous fees and charges (RLMC).
fees and charges is set to maintain
account for local government accounts.
federal transfers (RLTF),
transfers (RLTFPX), and
The level of miscellaneous
a zero balance on current
221: RLTF = RLTF(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
222: RL991 := RLPT+RLOT+RLT99+RLTF+RLTFPX
223: RLMC: EL99-RL991-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-l))
224: RL99 == RL99l+RLMC
Local Government Expenditures
Total local government expenditures ( EL99) consist of several
components--education expenditures (ELED), non-education
expenditures (ELNEDl), and debt service expenditures (not including
those provided by state government) (ELBD) as well as exogenous
state-local transfers (RLTX), federal-local petroleum-related
transfers (RLTFPX), and miscellaneous state-local transfers
(RLTMS). Education expenditures are the sum of revenues from
state-local transfers (RLTE99) and those from local sources
(ELEDl). Local education expenditures from own sources is a
function of personal income net of "enclave" employment income.
Non-education expenditures are determined in real terms as a
function of real disposable personal income. Debt service is a
function of the level of outstanding general obligation bonds
(GOBONDL).
The capital port ion of the education component of the budget
(ELEDCP) is a function of education expenditures in total (ELED).
The amount of capital expenditures financed by general obligation
bonds grows with prices and per capita income.
Local government personnel expenditures (ELPERS) is calculated
from total local expenditures net of education capital expenditures
and debt service expenditures. From this, local government wages
and salaries (WSGL) is calculated.
B-61
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Total state and local government expenditures ( SLGEXP) are the
sum of state and local expenditures net of state-local transfers.
Local (BALOCAL) and combined state and local (BALLANDS) current
account balances are calculated.
216: ELEDl = CllA+CllB*PI3(-l)
217: ELED = RLTE99+ELED1
218: ELBD = Cl4A+Cl4C*D61.77*GOBONDL(-l)+Cl4B*GOBONDL(-l)
219: ELNEDl/PDRPI = Cl6A+Cl6E*D81.00+Cl6D*R.DPI8N(-l)+
C16B*D7l.OO*R.DPI8N(-l)+C16C*WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l)
220: EL99 = ELED+ELNEDl+ELBD+RLTX+RLTFPX+RLTMS
225: ELEDCP = Cl5A+Cl5B*ELED
226: ELPERS = Cl2A+Cl2B*(EL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
227: WSGL = Cl3A+PC13C*D81.00+Cl3B*(ELPERS+ELPERS(-l))
228: GOBONDL = GOBONDL(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
229: SLGEXP == EX99S+EL99-RLT99
230: BALOCAL == RL99-(EL99-ELBD)
231: BALLANDS == BALOCAL+BALCAB
B-62
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
8.4. Input Variables
A value for each of these variables for each year of simulation
must be entered by the user.
POLICY INPUTS
Values for these variables are likely to change from one
simulation to the next.
Employment
*EMAGRI
*EMCNXl
*EMCNX2
*EMFISH
*EMGC
*EMGM
*EMMXl
*EMMX2
*EMP9
*EMT9X
S~ate Expenditures
EX80ND
EXDrPCNT
EXDFl
EXPF8AK
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
EXPFl
EXPRPER
EXSAVX
EXSPCAP
EXSPLITX
EXSU8Sl
agriculture
high wage (enclave) exogenous construction
normal wage exogenous construction
fish harvesting
civilian federal government
military active duty
high wage exogenous manufacturing
sectoral av~rage wage exogenous manufacturing
mining (including petroleum)
exogenous part of transportation
proportion of capital expenditures financed
by bonds
development fund withdrawal rate
development fund contribution rate
Permanent Fund reinvestment rate
extraordinary Permanent Fund contribution
Permanent Fund distribution rate
Permanent Fund contribution rate
percent adjustment to state personnel
expenditures in expansionary years
savings out of current revenues
special capital expenditures
operation expenditures as a proportion of
total
subsidies
*May be provided by scenario generator model if desired.
8-63
Growth Ratesa
GRDIRPU
GRRWEUS
GRUSCPI
Local Revenues
RLPTX
RLTFPX
RLTX
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
U.S. disposable income per capita
U.S. real average weekly earnings
U.S. consumer price index
exogenous property taxes
petroleum-related federal transfers
unspecified state-local transfers
State Petroleum Revenues
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*RPBS
*RPPS
*RPRY
*RPTS
bonus payments ~
RP9X
RSFDNPX
*RTCSPX
property taxes
rents and royalties
severance taxes
unspecified revenues
petroleum-related federal-shared revenues
petroleum corporate income tax
State Nonpetroleum Revenues
RSFDNX
RTCSX
Miscellaneous
*TOURIST
uus
XXMX2
exogenous federal-state transfers
exogenous corporate income tax
tourist visitors
u.s. unemployment rate
gross product in low-wage exogenous
manufacturing
*May be provided by scenario generator model if desired.
aused only with certain fiscal rule options:
GREXCAP -state capital expenditures
GREXOPS -state operating expenditures
GRRPCEX -real per capita state expenditures
GRSSCP -state per capita capital stock
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OTHER EXOGENOUS INPUTS
Values for these variables are less likely to vary across
simulations.
Dummy Variables
D.gg A dummy variable with a value of unity in the year gg
only
D.gg.hh. A dummy variable with a value of unity from year gg to
year hh
D. ggDECj A dummy variable with a value of unity in year gg and
declining to zero in j years
Initial Values
BALggl Known historical values for the balance in the state
fund gg
BIUl Known historical values for basic instructional unit
for allocating state education funds to districts
EXaaal
PDUSCPil
Known historical values for state expenditure category
aaa
Known historical values for USCPI
PR.DPIUl Known historical values for real per capita disposable
income in u.s.
VAEXl
WEUSl
Known historical values for exemption value on federal
income tax
Known historical values for U.S. average weekly earnings
Impact Variables
BASaaaa Values from a previously run "base case" used in
or certain impact study calculations
BASEaaaa
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Kay 1983
State Personal Income Tax Variables
RTISXX
TCRED
TXBASE
TXCRPC
TXPTXX
TXRT
Adjustment of disposable income to cover lag in refund
of state personal income taxes after repeal
Individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77
Change in the floor of personal income tax rate schedule
State personal income tax credit adjustment
Allows model user to withold from state expenditures a
portion of any personal income tax reduction
Percentage change in state personal income tax rate
Native Income Variables
ANCSA
EMNATX
NCBP
Payment to
government
Act (ANCSA)
Alaska Natives by
under Alaska Native
federal
Claims
and state
Settlement
Native employment rate obtained from the income
distribution model
Bonus income to Natives from lease sales on Native lands
NCRP Native recurrent income from petroleum development on
Native lands
PCNCl
PCNC2
PCNC3
RNATX
SANCSA
Proportion of ANCSA
individuals
payments paid directly to
Proportion of recurring income from petroleum
development on Native lands paid directly to individuals
Proportion of earnings on Native Corporation
accumulated capital paid directly to individuals
Native personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
Payment to Alaska Natives by state government under
ANCSA
Miscellaneous Exogenous Variables
BADD Adjustment factor to account for birth of Native
children to non-Native women
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GODTX
LPTRAT
PCOLART
PIPADJ
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Annual debt service payment to service general
obligation bonds outstanding at beginning of simulation
period
General obligation bonded indebtedness of the state
from debt incurred before 1983
Percentage of pipeline property within local
jurisdictions actually subject to local tax because of
limitations imposed by state statutes
The cost of living differential for federal employees
Ratio of "enclave" to regular construction wage rate
P9PTPER Percentage of petroleum property which is taxable by
state which falls within local taxing jurisdiction
YR Year
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.5. Variable and Parameter Name Conventions
A prefix not followed by a period indicates a variable within a
general category.
BALaaa
BASaaaa
CEaaN
DPiaaa
ELaaa
EMaaa
EXaaa
EXPRaaa
GRaaa
NCaaa
NEMaaN
NWSaaN
PDaaa
Piaaa
POPaaa
Raaa
RLaaa
UNa a a
WRaaa
WRGaa
WSaaa
XXaaa
State government fund balance
Base level for a variable (used only in certain impact
analyses)
Proportion of Native employment in industry aa
Disposable personal income
Local government expenditure
Employment
State government expenditure variable
State government personnel expenditures
Growth rate
Native claims variable
Native employment
Native wages and salaries
Price index
Personal income
Population aggregate
State government revenue (except RLaaa)
Local government revenue
Unemployment
Average annual wage rate
Average annual wage rate growth rate
Wages and salaries
Gross product
A prefix followed by a period and a variable name indicates the
v~riable is operated on in the manner dictated by the prefix.
D.aa.aa Dummy variable with a value of unity for the indicated
range of years
B-69
DF.aaaa
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Variable deflated to 1982 base-year dollars (PDRPIBAS
is base-year index)
EM.aaaa Variable is a proportion of total employment (EM99)
EX.aaaa Variable is a proportion of total state general fund
expenditures (restricted and unrestricted) including
Permanent Fund dividends (EXGF) but excluding special
Permanent Fund contributions
EXBM. aaa Variable is a proportion of total state general fund
expenditures (unrestricted) including Permanent Fund
dividends plus special Permanent Fund contributions
(EXGFBM)
G.aaa
IM.aaa
Change in the level of the variable from the previous
year
Variable is difference calculated from a previously run
simulation with outputs specified by exogenous
variables with prefix BAS
INDEX.aa A specially constructed variable for monitoring model
simulation behavior
P.aaa Variable in per capita terms {POP)
PI.aaaa Variable is a proportion of personal income (PI)
POP.aaa Variable is a proportion of population (POP)
PR.aaa Variable in real per capita terms (deflated using PDRPI
where 1967 US = 100)
R.aaa Variable is deflated to 1967 US price level (PDRPI)
RL99.aaa Variable is a proportion of total local revenues
RN.aaa
RS.aaaa
Variable is proportion of total state general and
Permanent Fund revenues net of regular and special
Permanent Fund contributions as well as reinvested
Permanent Fund earnings (R99SNT)
Variable is a proportion of total state general and
Permanent Fund revenues {R99S)
RSBM.aaa Variable is a proportion of unrestricted state general
fund revenues net of regular Permanent Fund
contributions (RSGFBM)
B-70
-
-
-
..,
-.
-.
-
Suffixes
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
a. Industries: used with employment (EKaa), wage rate (WRaa),
wages and salaries (WSaa), and gross state product (XXaa).
AGRI
A9
CM
CN
CNNP
CNP
cu
DR
ow
09
FI
FISH
AFISH
GA
GC
GF
GL
GM
GS
GSFY
M9
M9P
MO
PRO
PROFIS
PU
P9
S9
SB
SP
SUP
TCU
T9
TOUR
DTOUR
STOUR
TTOUR
Agriculture
Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery
Communications
Construction
Nonpipeline Construction
Pipeline Construction (Premium Wage, Enclave)
Communications
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Total Trade
Finance-Insurance-Real Estate
Fish Harvesting
Fish Harvesting-Wages and Salary Component
State and Local Government
Federal Civilian Government
Federal Government (Military plus Civilian)
Local Government
Military
State Government
State Government (Fiscal Year)
Manufacturing
Exogenous Premium Wage Manufacturing
Endogenous Manufacturing
Proprietor
Proprietor-Fish Harvesting Component
Public Utilities
Mining ·
Total Services
Business Services
SUP + TCU
Trade, Finance, Service
Transport, Communication, Public Utilities
Transportation
Tourism
Tourism-Retail Trade
Tourism-Services
Tourism-Transportation
B-71
00
96
97
98
99
NT
Unclassified
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Total Civilian (Non-Ag. Wage & Salary
plus Proprietors)
Total Non-Ag. Wage and Salary
Total Non-Ag. Wage & Salary Plus Military
Grand Total
Non-Tourism
b. Components of Income: used with personal income (Piaa)
DIR
OLI
PRO
PROl
PROF
RADJ
sse
TRAN
ws
3
8
Dividends, Interest, Rent
Other Labor Income
Proprietor Income
Nonfishing Proprietor Income
Fishery Proprietor Income
Residence Adjustment
Personal Contributions to Social Security
Transfers
Wages and Salaries
Personal Income Net of Enclave Employment
Income
Personal Income plus Residence Adjustment
-
-
c. State Expenditures by major program categories: used with expenditures ~
(EXaa) and personnel expenditures (EXPRaa)
CDS
EDS
GGS
HES
GF
. GFBM
DF
PF
JUS
NRS
PPS
sss
TRS
UA
Development
Education
General Government
Health and Social Services
General Fund
Unrestricted General Fund
Development Fund (hypothetical)
Permanent Fund
Justice
Natural Resources
Public Protection
Social Services
Transportation
University of Alaska
8-72
-
-
-
d. Special Suffixes
99 or 9 A
1 A
8 A
4 A
r
X An
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
grand total
component of the total variable, or an
exogenous initial value
component of the total variable
preliminary estimate of the value for a
variable.prior to application of a ratio
exogenous variable
B-73
B-74
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
caab
.-
EXANNU 800
r EXCAPIHP . 1432
EXCAPOLD 100
EXELl
EXEL2
EXEL3
EXEL4 0
EXEL5 0
EXEL6 0
EXLIH82 2500
r
EXOHCOST .15
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
B.6. Parameter Definitions, Values, and Sources
a stochastic coefficient, where aa is a
number associated with a particular
equation and b is a letter associated
with the position within the equation
if EXRLOP8 is in effect, the amount
of the annual annuity which contributes
to funding ftate operating expenditures;
mi 11 ion $
per capital impact state capital
expenditure used with fiscal rule
EXRL4
state spending to replace capital
stock put in place prior to 1984
elasticity of state expenditures with
respect to population
elasticity of state expenditures with
respect to prices
elasticity of state expenditures with
respect to real per capita personal
income
elasticity of state expenditures
with respect to personal income
elasticity of state expenditures
to personal income net of "enclave"
employment-related income (PI3)
'
elasticity of state expenditures
to population net of "enclave"
construction employment
constitutionally mandated 1982
spending 1 imit; mi 11 ion $
annual operations and maintenance
cost of incremental state capital
stock as a percentage of original
cost
B-75
set by model user at level consistent
with continued positive state treasury
balance and maximum expenditure levels
Goldsmith and Hogford, The Relationship
Between the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
& State & local Government Expenditures
Department of Administration,
Annual Financial Report
set by model user; default value con-
sistent with idea that expenditures
rise with population
set by model user; default value con-
sistent with idea that expenditures
rise with prices
set by model user; default value
assumes state operating expenditures
neither inferior or superior good
set by model user; default value
assumes state expenditures are
inferior goods
set by model user; default value
assumes state expenditures are
inferior goods
set by model user; default value
assumes state expenditures are
inferior goods
current law
author's estimate
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~ Hay 1983 !
EXOPSIMP 7.678 per capita impact state operation Goldsmith and Mogford, The Relation-
expenditure used with fiscal rule shi~ Between the Alaska Natural Gas -EXRL4 Pi~eline and State and Local
Government Ex~enditures
"""' EXRll 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user; default value
state expenditure growth based zero
primarily upon aggregate demand
~ variables, including prices,
population, and income
EXRL2 0 policy switch for detennination of set by roodel user; default value
state expenditure growth based upon zero
a specified exogenous growth rate -EXRL3 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user; default value
state expenditure growth based upon zero
a specified growth rate in real
per capita operating expenditures "'011!
and real per capita level of
capita 1 stock
EXRL4 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user; default value
state expenditure growth based upon zero
a specified expenditure level per 11M!! impact individual (for use in
impact analysis)
EXRL40P 0 policy switch used with EXRL4 with set by model user; default value -value of one if enclave construction zero
employment not counted in impact
population ~
EXRL5 policy switch for detennination of set by model user; default value
state expenditure growth based upon one -constitutionally imposed spending
1 imi t
EXRLOP6 0 policy switch for detennination of set by model user; default value _,
state operating expenditure growth zero
based upon annual change in level
of general fund balance -
EXRLOP7 0 pollcy sw.itch for detennination of set by model user; default value
state expenditure growth based zero
upon saving a specified amount· ·""'1
(EXSAVS) -
B-76
-EXRLOP8 0
Pl-P6 0,0,0,1,1,1
PADl . 7
I""' PA02 .082
~ PADJ 1.5 I
r PARLVFV .919
~I PARNONGF .2
r
l
PBLTBL . 13
-i I
PBTRATE .000025
PC12N .922
I'""'
,~-
PC12RN .833 -i
policy switch for detennination of
state operating expenditure growth
based upon spending an annuity
(EXANSAV)
variables to facilitate printing
population distribution model
results; units
proportion of population aged 5 to 19'
attending district schools; percent
proportion of population aged 5 to 19
attending REAA schools; percent
ratio of premiliD (~119P) to low wage
(~1191) in manufacturing sector
ratio of local value to full value of
local property according to state
appraiser; percent
proportion of University of Alaska
revenues not from the general fund;
percent
proportion of gross business receipts
taxable after 1978 tax law change;
percent
state business license tax rate;
million$ per business
proportion of ANCSA payments made to
12 regional Native corporations in
Alaska; percent
proportion of members of 12 regional
Native corporations residing in
Alaska; percent
B-77
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
set by model user; default value
zero
values internal to model to allow
income distribution model to work
Department of Education, Annual
Financial Report, and population
model
Department of Education, Annual
Financial Report, and population
model
Department of Labor (DOL),
Statistical Quarterly
average of past values from Alaska
Dept. of Community and Regional
Affairs, Alaska Taxable
Department of Administration,
Executive Budget
ratio of predicted receipts
under new law and old law using
information from Alaska Dept. of
Revenue, Commissioner's Newsletter
(under new law, only banks, trusts,
and savings & loans taxed)
existing state tax law
2(c) Report: Federal Programs and
Alaska Natives by Robert Nathan
Assoc. for U.S. Department of
Interior
2(c) Report: Federal Programs and
Alaska Natives by Robert Nathan
Assoc. for U.S. Department of
Interior
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
PECIG .625 proportion of cigarette tax receipts existing state tax law
paid to special fund; percent
PERNAl 0 proportion of change in state author's estimate
employment rate reflected in
change in Native employment rate;
percent
PERNA2 .005 proportion of gap between Native author's estimate
and state employment rates that is
!""" closed in one year; percent
PERNA3 percentage of Native corporation author's estimate
jobs held by Natives; percent
PESLT .4 proportion of "other" state taxes existing state tax law
shared with local government; percent
,II"""
" PESLTC . 1 proportion of state corporate income existing state tax law
tax shared with local government;
percent
PFISHl .97 percentage of fish harvesting employ-DOL Statistical Quarterl~. BEA
ment reported as proprietors employment data, and G. Rogers,
""""' Measuring the Socioeconomic '
Impact of Alaska's Fisheries
PIOIST 0 model switch which results in
retrieval of Native employment
and wages and salaries from
r income distribution model if
value of one is chosen
PNTGR .02 gross receipts per business exempt existing state tax law
from state gross receipts tax;
million$
PRINT2 0 variable from income distribution
model which allows results to be
printed if value of one is chosen
,_
-4.75 intercept term on tourist industry Improvements to Specification of PTOURB the
employment equation HAP Hodel, ISER, January 1982
~ PTOURD .4 proportion of tourist industry Improvements to S~ecification of the
employment in trade HAP Hodel, ISER, January 1982
i"" PTOURE elasticity of tourism employment Improvements to S~cification of the
to growth in number of tourists HAP Hodel, ISER, January 1982
8-79
PTOURS .4
PTOURT .2
PTRTS .02
PWRBASE 5473
ROR .02
RORANGRO .08
RORCPDEP .03
RORCRF .08
RORDISK .02
RORNC .01
RORPDF 0
RORPPF .01
proportion of tourist industry
employment in services
proportion of tourist industry
employment in transportation
tax rate on state petroleum-related
property; percent
1967 U.S. average wage paid in
goverMJent
real rate of return on general
fund balance; percent
rate at which state operating
expenditure annuity grows; percent
real rate of depreciation of state
capital; percent
capital recovery factor for cal-
culating annual servicing of state
general obligation bonded debt;
percent
discount rate applied to future
petroleum revenues to calculate
present value in 1982 dollars (DF.RSVP)
nominal rate of return on accumulated
capital of Native COrporations
real rate of return premium applied
to development fund over general fund;
percent
real rate of return premium applied
to Penmanent Fund over general fund;
percent
8~0
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Improvements to Specification of the
HAP Hodel, ISER, January 1982
Improvements to Specification of the
HAP Hodel, ISER, January 1982
existing state tax law
1967 state goverMJent and employment
data from U.S. Department of Carmerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
author's estimate
set by model user in conjunction with
EXANNU
author's estimate
with r=.OS and n=20 years, the formula
for capital recovery factor is
(r(l+r)n/((l+r)n-1)). Assuming
r=.OS and n=20, this yields .08.
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
-
-
....
-
-
-
-
-
-
,...,
I
8.7. Model Validation and Properties
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Several types of analyses are done to test the validity of the
MAP model.
Statistical Tests
Statistical tests are normally applied to the stochastic
equations of the model. All stochastic equations in the MAP model
are estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Two-staged
least squares estimations have been found in the past not to change
significantly the results of simulations. In general, specifications
for these equations are chosen which have good predictive qualities
(R 2 , standard error of regress ion) and structural properties
(t tests, F test). Sometimes, however, it is necessary to
compromise on the quality of the statistical tests of the model to
obtain an equation specification which does well in simulation.
This is because when simulating with all the equations together in a
model, equations that appear correct may not always interact to
produce reasonable results.
Individual equation statistical tests are applied during
estimation. At the same time, the stability of the structure of the
individual equations can be reviewed. As might be expected in the
rapidly evolving Alaskan economy, the structures of some equations
may need to be altered over time.
Historical Simulation
Second, the model is tested by seeing how accurately it can
predict the actual historical data upon which it is based (ex post
forecast). There are no formal statistical tests of this capability
except that a model that comes closer to the actual historical
values is better. One value of this test is that it indicates
variables or sections of the model which may require additional
attention.
The results of historical simulation of the current version of
the MAP model are presented in Table B. 7 for the most important
endogenous variables of the model: personal income, wages and
salaries, and employment.
The results are presented for each variable in terms of a KAPE
value, which is the mean-absolute percent error of the predicted
value from the actual value. The results for the MAP Alaska model
fall within the range reported for other regional econometric
models, and the pattern of forecast errors and percent errors shows
that the model has been successful in 'tracking a historical period
during which significant growth and structural change occurred.
B-81
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation
"'"'' Kay 1983
TABLE 8.7. HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF -ECONOMIC MODULE
Pe~sonal Income (million $) -
Histodcal Simulated Pe~cent
Data Value Error Er~o~
1965 827.373 861.26 33.887 4.096 ~
1966 894.177 923.523 29.345 3.282
1967 987.882 1000.51 12.624 1.278
1968 1068.36 1093.87 25.509 2.388 -1969 1215.8 1214.67 -1.125 -0.093
1970 1388.01 1309.01 -78.999 -5.692
1971 1519.28 1459.68 -59.595 -3.923 ""'!~\
1972 1677.57 1660.58 -16.991 -1.013
1973 1958.88 1939.59 -19.287 -0.985
1974 2391.46 2292.36 -99.098 -4.144 -1975 3454.69 3372.21 -82.486 -2.388
1976 4128.95 4450.14 321.195 7. 779 ,oi!IOI!
1977 4260.16 4439.79 179.625 4.216
1978 4324. 4358.82 34.816 0.805
1979 4554.4 4797.93 243.535 5.347
1980 5030.13 4972.16 -57.977 -1.153 -.
1981 NA 5455.23 NA NA
Mean 2480.07 2682.43 29.061 0.613 !l!fl1!!.
Root Mean
Squared 2889.19 3146.19 119.69 3.678*
Standard *\ Deviation 1530.72 1694.7 119.917 3.745 I
""""
*Root mean squa~ed error.
~
8-82
-
-
,-
r
r-
r-
,...
II"""
,....
!"""
!"""
i
'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE 8.7. HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF
ECONOMIC MODULE
Wages and Salaries (million $)
Historical Simulated Percent
Data Value Error Error
1965 721.2 756.722 35.523 4.926
1966 770.5 809.511 39.011 5.063
1967 851.7 874.314 22.614 2.655
1968 929.5 952.832 23.332 2.51
1969 1072.4 1058.19 -14.214 -1.325
1970 1203.2 1134.05 -69.15 -5.747
1971 1308.4 1268.82 -39.576 -3.025
1972 1444. 1450.06 6.058 0.42
1973 1566.9 1590.61 23.712 1.513
1974 2110.8 2003.72 -107.08 -5.073
1975 3412.9 3407.91 -4.992 -0.146
1976 4236. 4450.74 214.742 5.069
1977 3787.61 3935.48 147.877 3.904
1978 3600.07 3553.85 -46.22 -1.284
1979 3802.52 3977.59 175.064 4.604
1980 4219.91 4037.99 -181.923 -4.311
1981 NA 4444.2 NA NA
Mean 2189.85 2335.68 14.049 0.61
Root Mean
Squared 2563.85 2733.04 98.85 3.689)!(
Standard
Deviation 1377.11 1462.87 101.055 3.758
)!(Root mean squared error.
B-83
01111/j
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
TABLE 8.7. HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF
ECONOMIC MODULE
Nonagriculture Wage and Salary Employment -(thousands)
-Historical Simulated Percent
Data Value Error Error
... ,
1965 70.529 70.406 -0.123 -0.174
1966 73.195 73.975 0.78 1.066
1967 76.784 78.03 1. 246 1.622
1968 79.803 81.068 1. 265 1.585
1969 86.563 84.817 -1.746 -2.017
1970 92.465 88.837 -3.628 -3.924
1971 97.584 94.048 -3.536 -3.624
1972 104.243 100.943 -3.3 -3.165
1973 109.849 106.885 -2.964 -2.698 """""
1974 128.164 121.019 -7.144 -5.574
1975 161.315 154.893 -6.422 -3.981
~
1976 171.185 169.594 -1.591 -0.929
1977 164.063 159.556 -4.507 -2.747
1978 163.293 157.095 -6.198 -3.796
1979 166.406 160.898 -5.508 -3.31 ~.
1980 169.609 166.281 -3.328 -1.962
1981 177. 173.503 -3.497 -1.976
Mean 123.062 120.109 -2.953 -2.094
Root Mean
Squared 129.3 125.981 3.906 2.917*
Standard
Deviation 40.9 39.186 2.635 2.093 -
*Root mean squared error.
B-84
-
-I
r
i
Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity of simulation
and exogenous variable values has
sensitive to the elasticity of
spending levels, the labor force
wage rate growth as well as to the
Simulation Tests
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
results to changes in parameter
been investigated. The model is
the support sector, government
participation rate, and the real
exogenous employment variables.
After these foregoing tests have been made, the model is run
under different conditions to assess its reasonableness and
stability in as many types of situations as possible as well as its
ability to identify turning points. These tests include straight
simulation, impact analyses, simulation under conditions of no
growth, and simulation under conditions of decline. Certain
variables are monitored to make sure that their values remain within
a reasonable range.
Several ratios which are closely monitored are shown in
Table B.8 for a typical simulation. The civilian employment rate
{EMRATE) holds fairly constant and jumps during boom periods. The
ratio of disposable-to-total personal income {PI.DPI) trends
downward except during boom periods. The Alaskan price index
relative to the United States (PDRATIO) trends downward but ratchets
up during boom periods. The ratio of price-adjusted personal income
per capita in Alaska to the United States {INDEX.DI) jumps during
booms but eventually falls below one as it has been historically.
The ratio of the real wage in Alaska to the United States trends
upward slightly (INDEX.WG). The ratio of wage and salary to total
income falls (PI.WS98). The ratios of support (EM.EMSUP) and
infrastructure (EM.EMTCU) employment to total employment show
continued growth. The ratios of support {INDEX.Sl) and
infrastructure (INDEX.S2) employment to Alaskan real disposable
personal income are relatively stable.
B-85
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~ May 1983
TABLE B.8. VARIABLES USED TO MONITOR SIMULATION -
EMRATE PI.DPI PDRATIO INDEX.DI INDEX.WG PI.WS98 """ '
1982 0. 504 0.823 1.262 1.05 1.521 0.8
1983 o. 506 0.822 1.244 1.014 1. 535 0.837
1984 0.497 0.821 1.232 0.983 1.472 0.814
1985 0.499 0.82 1.219 0.962 1.431 0.808
1986 o. 502 0.819 1.209 0.941 1.391 0.803
1987 0.501 0.818 1.204 0.917 1.353 0. 798
1988 0. 502 0.817 1.2 0.892 1.362 0.82 ~
1989 0.498 0. 796 1.199 0.863 1.369 0.819
1990 0.499 o. 794 1.253 0.85 1.382 0.834
1991 0.49 o. 793 1.254 -0.844 1.363 0.81
1992 0. 501 o. 791 1.238 0.845 1.404 0.843
1993 0.494 . o. 79 1.234 0.834 1.391 0.828
1994 0.489 o. 79 1.229 0.832 1.368 0.804
1995 0.487 o. 789 1.224 0.828 1.361 0. 797
1996 0.487 0.788 1.217 0.825 1.359 0. 793
1997 0.487 o. 786 1. 21 0.822 1.362 0. 791
1998 0.486 o. 785 1.204 0.819 1.362 0.787
1999 0.486 0. 784 1.197 0.816 1.364 0.785
2000 0.485 0.783 1.19 0.813 1.366 0. 782 -,
2001 0.485 o. 782 1.183 0.811 1.369 0.78
2002 0.485 o. 781 1.176 0.809 1.373 0. 779 ~
2003 0.485 0. 78 1.169 0.808 1.379 0. 778
2004 0.486 0. 778 1.161 0.807 1.384 0. 776
2005 0.487 o. 777 1.153 0.806 1.388 0. 775 ~
2006 0.487 o. 776 1.145 0.805 1.392 0. 774
2007 0.488 o. 775 1.136 0.803 1.396 0. 773
2008 0.488 o. 774 1.128 0.801 1.4 o. 773 11!'1111
2009 0.489 0. 772 1.12 o. 798 1.403 0. 772
2010 0.489 o. 771 1.111 o. 796 1.407 0. 771
~
SOURCE: HE.9
"""'·
KEY: See text. ..,
B-86 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
'-TABLE 8.8. VARIABLES USED TO MONITOR SIMULATION
(continued)
!"""
INDEX.S1 INDEX.S2 EM.EMTCU EM.EMSUP
""'" I
1982 0.046 0.012 0.083 0.315
1983 0.048 0.012 0.081 0.322
!!""' 1984 0.05 0.012 0.082 0.33
1985 0.051 0.013 0.083 0.334
1986 0.052 0.013 0.083 0.336
~'*""' 1987 0.052 0.013 0.084 0.335
1988 0.053 0.013 0.084 0.334
1989 0.053 0.013 0.083 0.334
r 1990 0.053 0.013 ' 0.084 0.334
1991 0.053 -0.013 0.082 0.339
1992 0.053 0.013 0.084 0.339
1993 0.053 0.013 0.083 0.346
1994 0.053 0.013 0.087 0.352
1995 0.053 0.013 0.087 0.358
F"
1996 0.053 0.013 0.088 0.362
1997 0.053 0.013 0.089 0.367 -1998 0.053 0.013 0.09 0.373
I,
1999 0.0·53 0.013 0.09 0.378
2000 0.053 0.013 0.091 0.384
2001 ' 0.054 0.013 0.091 0.389
2002 0.054 0.012 0.092 0.395
2003 0.054 0.012 0.092 0.4 -2004 0.054 0.012 0.092 0.406
2005 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.411
r"' 2006 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.417
2007 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.422
2008 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.428
2009 0.054 0.012 0.093 0.434
/!'"" 2010 0.054 0.012 0.094 0.439
'
SOURCE: HE.9
KEY: See text.
B-87
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Table B. 9 shows the results of a no-growth, or flat projection
done to test the stability of the model. In this projection, the
values for all exogenous variables associated with basic sectors of
the economy are set at constant levels. State government growth is
also assumed to be zero. Any growth in economic activity in the
absence of changes in these variables comes about as a result of one
of two things. First, real wage rate increases necessary to
maintain parity with real wage rate growth elsewhere in the United
States will lead to some increase in disposable personal income in
the absence of employment growth. Second, some activities which
have not bee explicitly identified as basic sector in the economic
scenario will continue to trend upward.
This case is unrealistic, both in its assumptions of no growth
and of a continuation of wage rate parity with the rest of the
United States in a no-growth regional economy. Nevertheless, the
simulation is important because it allows us to investigate what the
simulation properties of the model are independent of and underlying
any particular economic scenario.
In general, in such a simulation, one would expect some growth,
but not a large amount. This is, in fact, what ~e observe. After
about 1984, when government spending finally -nattens out,
employment holds fairly constant. In fact, private sector employment
is growing; while public sector employment is falling as r1s1ng
costs squeeze employment out of a constant-level budget. Population
grows slowly, but the dependency ratio increases significantly.
Thus, a rising real wage rate is offset to yield a fairly constant
level of real per capita disposable personal income. There is no
formal standard against which to measure this case except
reasonableness, economic theory, and the experience of other
regions. By these criteria, the simulation appears satisfactory.
B-88
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE 8.9. NO-GROWTH PROJECTION RESULTS
-POP EM99 POP MIG POPNI9 DP13R
-1980 401.362 203.217 -7.4 6.482 1359.48
1981 411.889 209.592 4.398 6.111 1402.16
1982 424.128 217.695 6.031 6.209 1459.44
1983 430.574 219.62 0.093 6.356 1479.34
1984 436.014 220.637 -0.829 6.261 1494.63
...... 1985 440.699 221.032 -1.474 6.15 1506.18
1986 444.81 221.009 -1.926 6.026 1515.18
1987 448.634 220.876 -2.086 5.898 1523.73 ·-1988 452.308 220.763 -2.116 5. 777 1532.67
1989 455.854 220.68 -2.136 5.669 1542.04
1990 459.328 220.667 -2.112 5. 572 1552.06 -1991 462.745 220.728 -2.085 5.488 1562.83
1992 466.104 220.849 -2.069 5.414 1574.21
,..... 1993 469.43 221.045 -2.037 5.349 1586.31
1994 472.719 221.303 -2.017 5.292 1599.04
1995 '475.981 221.626 -1.993 5.241 1612.41
r-1996 479.22 222.01 -1.971 5.195 1626.41
1997 482.439 222.459 -1.949 5.153 1641.09
1998 485.635 222.96 -1.933 5.113 1656.32
r-1999 488.818 223.523 -1.909 5.075 1672.18
2000 491.974 224.131 -1.899 5.038 1688.55
-
KEY: POP Population
EM99 Employment ,... POPKIG Net migration r
POPNI9 Natural Increase
DP13R Real disposable income
Model run: January 1982 using an earlier version of economic
model.
B-89
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE 8.9. NO-GROWTH PROJECTION RESULTS
(continued)
DPIXR EMGA DPIRPC EMRATE PO RATIO
1980 0. 37.282 3388.3 0.476 1.296
1981 0 41.522 3404.12 0.48 1.293
1982 0. 45.884 3441.18 0.485 1.289
1983 0. 46.072 3435.74 0.482 1.289
1984 o. 45.931 3427.97 0.479 1.288
1985 o. 45.732 3417.75 0.474 1.288
1986 0. 45.307 3406.28 0.469 1.288
1987 0. 44.841 3396.31 0.465 1.288
1988 0. 44.391 3388.48 0.461 1.288
1989 o. 43.936 3382.67 0.457 1.288
1990 0. 43.497 3379.04 0.453 1.288
1991 0. 43.073 3377.36 0.45 1.288
1992 0. 42.655 3377.44 0.447 1.288
1993 0. 42.255 3379.29 0.444 1.288
1994 0. 41.864 3382.7 0.441 1.288
1995 0. 41.486 3387.62 0.438 1.288
1996 0. 41.118 3393.95 0.436 1.288
1997 0. 40.763 3401.6 0.434 1.287
1998 0. 40.417 3410.58 0.432 1.287
1999 0. 40.084 3420.8 0.43 1.287
2000 o. 39.756 3432.14 0.429 1.287
KEY: DPIXR Real disposable income associated with premium wage
construction employment
EMGA State and local government
DPIRPC Real disposable income per capita
EMRATE Civilian employment rate
PDRATIO Alaskan relative price index
Model run: January 1982 using an earlier version of economic
model.
8-90
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Some Properties of the New Model
Important properties of the model can be observed by exam101ng
select impact experiments. Table B.lO shows the results of a
one-time increase in construction employment of 1,000 in 1984. The
upper portion of the table is premium wage, remote site, and enclave
employment (EMCNXl), while the lower is regular construction
(EMCNX2). This exercise, although unlikely to be encountered in any
actual situation, demonstrates several model features.
First, the size of the employment impact multiplier is
demonstrated to be 1.48 for regular construction and 2.33 for
special construction. It can be shown by further impact tests that
the impact multiplier for other basic sectors is smaller. For
example, for federal government employment, it is approximately
1.4. Thus, the size of the impact multiplier varies with the type
of basic (or exogenous) change which occurs, and its value is within
a reasonable range. The total employment effect includes, in
addition to the direct employment, the indirect employment (which an
I-0 analysis would measure), the induced employment (which an
augmented I-0 model that included consumer spending would measure),
the investment effect (which is endogenous to the MAP model but
treated as exogenous in most models including I-0 models) ,and' the
structural change effect. This last effect consists of new types of
activities stimulated by changing economic opportunities produced by
the direct employment. A static model would capture only the first
or the first and second components of nondirect employment, and a
growth model is necessary to capture all effects. The MAP model
does this.
Second, if the exogenous change is not sustained, the
impact will not be sustained but will diminish over
eventually disappear. The total effect is felt over a
several years rather than instantaneously. Population
dissipated more slowly than employment.
employment
time and
period of
impact is
Table B.ll presents a more likely time pattern for exogenous
impact--that of the construction of the natural gas pipeline.
In contrast to these impact multipliers, a final impact
analysis, reported in Table B.l2, shows the effect of an increase in
construction employment of 1,000 sustained in all future years.
This clearly puts the economy onto a new long-run growth trajectory
after about four years. The employment and population responses are
larger than in the case of an impulse-type impact because the higher
level of activity is permanent and causes a permanent response in
other sectors of the economy.
B-91
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
KEY:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE B-10. IMPACTS OF A ONE TIME INCREASE
IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
(thousands)
Premium Wage, Remote Site, Enclave Employment (EMCNX1)
EMCNX
1.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0
0.
EMCNX
1.
0.
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.
o.
EMCNX
EMCN
EMTCU
EMS UP
EMGA
EM99
POP
EMCN EMTCU EMS UP EMGA EM99 POP
1.302 0.164 0.602 0.112 2.332 2.23
0.143 0.011 0.163 0.023 0.366 1.374
0.013 0.029 0.2 0.065 0.329 0.836
0.007 0.016 0.125 0.062 0.227 0.69
0.006 0.013 0.096 0.041 0.167 0. 597
0.002 0.005 0.046 0.02 0.08 0.471
0.001 0.004 0.03 0.008 0.046 0.392
0.001 0.002 0.018 0.006 0.029 0.326
0. 0.001 0.011 0.002 0.016 0.279
0. 0.001 0.006 -0.001 0.006. 0.219
Regular Construction Employment (EMCNX2)
EMCN EKTCU EMS UP EMGA EK99 POP
1.066 0.061 0.191 0.06 1.482 1.415
0.026 0.017 0.326 0.046 0.444 0.947
0.012 0.029 0.186 0.056 0.304 0.654
0.009 0.02 0.147 0.071 0.264 0.625
0.008 0.019 0.139 0.063 0.246 0. 598
0.004 0.007 0.066 0.035 0.12 0.464
0.002 0.006 0.043 0.014 0.07 0.386
0.001 0.004 0.028 0.011 0.048 0.327
0.001 0.002 0.018 0.006 0.03 0.281
0. 0.001 0.01 0.002 0.014 0.223
Exogenous construction employment
Endogenous construction employment
Transportation/communication/public utility employment
Trade/finance/service employment
State/local government employment
Total employment
Population
B-92
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1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE 8.11. GAS PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION IMPACT
EMCNX
0.217
0.217
0. 563
2.435
7.103
10.589
6.074
0.468
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.
POP
0.446
0.679
1.501
5. 718
17.205
30.176
28.865
19.079
15.158
13.52
12.368
11.356
10.465
9.672
8.948
EMCN
0.273
0.296
0. 731
3.113
9.195
14.162
9.09
1.661
0.383
0.263
0.226
0.2
0.182
0.168
0.157
R.WR98
9.793
9.094
23.039
99.77
279.762
430.496
243.789
20.273
-6.676
-4.645
EMTCU
0.032
0.032
0.085
0.344
0.926
1.12
0. 76
0.438
0.439
0.35
0.298
0.264
0.243
0.227
0.216
PR.PI
0.383
-0.871
-0.868
0.055
3.57
-3.852
-21.512
-37.527
-41.664
-44.16
-2.711 -46.242
-1.324 -46.492
-0.238 -44.387
0.445 -41.465
0.883 -38.152
EMS UP
0.116
0.137
0.345
1.351
4.001
6.442
5.252
3.05
2.396
1. 77
1.375
1.104
0.93
0.807
0. 721
HH
0.154
0.235
0.52
1. 975
5.939
10.428
10.025
6. 703
5.376
4.831
4.454
4.128
3.843
3.592
3.364
EMGA
0.013
0.017
0.046
0.184
0. 538
0.942
1.513
1.453
1.329
1.088
0.882
0. 732
0.624
0.541
0.472
WS98
21.582
23.191
62.965
289.434
959.137
1583.71
1116.76
288.535
156.395
130.207
114.992
105.055
99.582
96.094
93.887
EM99
0.465
0. 515
1.293
5.347
15.713
24.302
17.84
7.101
4.89
3.736
2.993
2.477
2.131
1.878
1.689
KEY: EMCNX Exogenous construction employment (thousand)
EMCN Endogenous construction employment (thousand)
EMTCU Trans/comm/public utility employment (thousand)
EMSUP Trade/finance/service employment (thousand)
EMGA State/local government employment (thousand)
EM99 Total employment (thousand)
POP Population (thousand)
R.WR98 Real wage rate (1967 U.S. $)
PR.PI Real per capita personal income (1967 U.S. $)
HH Households (thousand)
WS98 Wages and salaries (million $)
8-93
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE 8.12. IMPACTS OF A SUSTAINED INCREASE .l'lll'l!
IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
Regular Construction Employment (EMCNX2)
EMCNX EMCN EMTCU EMS UP EMGA EM99
1984 1. 1.066 0.061 0.191 0.06 1.482
1985 1. 1.078 0.072 0.5 0.067 1.845
1986 1. 1.077 0.097 0.656 0.128 2.104 -1987 1. 1.084 0.111 0.765 0.196 2.315
1988 1. 1.093 0.126 0.871 0.253 2.518
1989 1. 1.097 0.128 0.906 0.281 2.593
1990 1. 1.099 0.131 0.927 0.284 2.625 -
1991 1. 1.103 0.135 0.949 0.294 2.667
1992 1. 1.104 0.136 0.971 0.297 2.698 -1993 1. 1.105 0.139 0.995 0.301 2.733
1994 1. 1.107 0.142 1.016 0.303 2.763
1995 1. 1.109 0.145 1.04 0.304 2.797 ,-,
1996 1. 1.111 0.148 1.067 0.308 2.836
1997 1. 1.113 0.152 1.096 0.31 2.876
1998 1 1.115 0.155 1.126 0.309 2.915 '""'i
1999 1. 1.118 0.159 1.158 0.009 2.956
2000 1. 1.121 0.163 1.192 0.309 3.002
POP R.WR98 PR.PI HH WS98
1984 1.415 21.281 19.082 0.489 55.453
1985 2.299 16.125 14.656 0.797 57.941
1986 2.864 12.871 12.328 0.995 61.668 ......,
1987 3.387 10.348 10.133 1.179 65.945
1988 3.874 9.801 9.948 1.351 74.516
1989 4.227 9.75 8.508 1.478 82.012 111!1!'1!
1990 4.491 9.312 7.113 1. 574 94.184
1991 4.73 10.738 6.332 1.663 103.621
1992 4.938 8.539 5.121 1. 741 109.957 -
1993 5.101 9.512 4.969 1.804 119.93
1994 5.267 11.059 4.375 1.869 130.977
1995 5.431 11.691 3.934 1.934 142.215 -
1996 5.58 12.027 3.594 1.994 154.238
1997 5. 717 12.215 3.383 2.051 167.312 -· 1998 5.845 12.629 3.324 2.104 181.758
1999 5. 971 12.914 3.305 2.157 197.309
2000 6.095 13.203 3.336 2.209 214.352 -
KEY: See Table B-11.
~
B-94
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
!""" MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE B.l2. IMPACTS OF A SUSTAINED INCREASE
IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
Premium Wage Remote Site, Enclave Employment (EMCNX1)
EMCNX EMCN EMTCU EMS UP EMGA EM99
1984 1. 1.302 0.164 0.602 0.112 2.332
1985 1. 1.417 0.164 0. 726 0.084 2. 561
"""" i 1986 1. 1.397 0.18 0.869 0.148 2.78
1987 1. 1.383 0.181 0.915 0.194 2.865
1988 1. 1.386 0.188 0.957 o. 211 2.939
1989 1. 1.388 0.182 0.934 0.213 2.913
1990 1. 1.392 0.176 0.925 0.205 2.894
I""" 1991 1. 1.4 0.186 0.932 0.205 2.921
1992 1. 1.406 0.177 0.954 0.202 2.94
1993 1. 1.412 0.161 0.96 0.206 2.94
~"""· 1994 1. 1.421 0.188 0.996 0.214 3.026
1995 1. 1.43 0.214 1.061 0.221 3.142
1996 1. 1.44 0.226 1.119 0.23 3.238
!""" 1997 1. 1.449 0.234 1.176 0.242 3.333
1998 1. 1.459 ·o.244 1.236 0.253 3.43
1999 1. 1.47 0.253 1.298 0.264 3.531
2000 1. 1.48 0.261 1.362 0.275 3.633
POP R.WR98 PR.PI HH WS98
!"""
1984 2.23 56.863 8.402 o. 772 103.055
1985 3.473 52.297 0. 773 1.205 109.09
1986 4.088 45.309 -3.73 1.421 111.684
1987 4.515 40.187 -7.793 1. 573 113.809
1988 4.874 39.965 -8.058 1.703 123.777
1989 5.111 40.684 -9.258 1. 79 133.707
1990 5.299 40.426 -10.047 1.862 152.09
~~
1991 5.49 43.262 -9.523 1.935 166.461
1992 5.673 40.023 -10.582 2.006 176.895
1993 5.74 41.816 -9.949 2.038 191.75
!""' 1994 5.939 44.566 -9.496 2.115 210.922
1995 6.179 45.871 -8.863 2.207 231.41
1996 6.388 46.609 -8.32 2.289 252.59
1997 6.587 47.105 -7.734 2.369 275.598
1998 6.786 47.941 -7.004 2.447 301.102
1999 6.991 48.586 -6.273 2.529 328.816
2000 7.199 49.184 -5.555 2.612 358.973
B-95
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The large size of this impact is due to several factors. First,
the measure of exogenous impact in Table 8.12 is only construction
employment (including engineers, managers, and clerical). The
actual construction of a project like a pipeline involves, in
addition to construction employees, a substantial support staff in
transportation, trade, and services. Thus, the direct employment
observed to be directly associated with construction will be larger,
by perhaps one-third than the direct construction employment. (For
example, only about 68 percent of Alyeska pipeline employment was
categorized as construction.) In the model, this support employment
appears with indirect support employment. Second in the model,
investment is endogenous rather than exogenous, and this increases
the size of any impact response because investment activity is a
result of an increase in the basic sector. Finally, the model
describes the development process within the economy, and this is
reflected in impact analysis. The economic development process may
be described as an increase in the ratio of support-to-basic
activity. Obviously, if the average ratio of support-to-basic
employment is increasing, then the incremental or marginal ratio
must be above the average ratio.
B-96
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Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
8.8. Input Data Sources
Individual Items
ANCSA
BAOD
BAL991
BALDFl
BALGFl
BALPFl
BASEMCNX
BASEPOP
BASEXCAP
BASEXGF
payment to Alaska Natives by federal
and state government under Alaska
Native Claims Settlement Act;
million $
birth adjustment factor to account
for birth of Native children to
non-Native women
initial combined state fund balances;
million $ ·
initial state development fund
(hypothetical) balance; million $
initial state general fund balance;
mi 11 ion $
initial state Permanent Fund balance;
mi 11 ion $
a base case vector of EMCNX values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of POP values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of EXCAP values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variables EXRL4
base case expenditure value to be
placed in impact run to calculate
difference in state expenditures
in real per capita tenms
B-97
based on the estimate that $690 million
of the original $962.5 million remained
to be paid out at the start of ]977.
Payments increase when Prudhoe Bay oil
production begins and cease in 1981.
See Alaska Native land Claims, Arnold
zero in simulation
historical data
historical data
historical data
historical data
default values all one; alternate
values obtained from a base case
default values all one; alternate
values obtained from a base case
default values all one; alternate
values obtained from a base case
default values all one; alternate
values obtained from a base case
BASEXOPS
BASPORPI
BIUl
D.80DEC6
EHAGRI
EHCNXl
EMCNX2
EMFISH
EMGC
EMGM
EHMXl
EHMX2
EHNATX
EHP9
a base case vector of EXOPS values used
for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction
with fiscal policy variables EXRL4
base case value of RPI to be input
into impact run to calculate dif-
ference in state e~penditures in
real per capita tenns; inde~
initial value of the Basic Instructional
Unit for School Foundations' distribution
program; thousand $
dummy variable taking value of one in
year or interval indicated; unit
dummy variable with value of unity in
1980, tapering off to zero in 6 years,
reflecting the fact that Alaskan wage
rates are "st1cky downward"
agricultural employment component of
agriculture/forestry/fisheries (EHA9);
thousands
"enclave" or premium wage construction
employment; thousand
non-"enclave" exogenous construction
employment; thousand
fish harvesting employment; thousand
federal civilian employment; thousand
federal military employment; thousand
premium wage manufacturing employment;
thousand
low wage manufacturing employment;
thousand
Native employment rate obtained from
the income distribution model; percent
mining employment; thousand
B-98
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
.....
HAP Documentation """'
May 1983
default values all one; alternate
values obtained from a base case
default values all one; alternate
values obtained from a base case
zero in simulation
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVElOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
values derived from income distribu-
tion model (currently inoperative)
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
-
-
-
-
-i
-
-
-
EMT9X
EX BONO
EXCAPl
EXCPSHYl
EXCPSNHl
EXOFl
EXOFPCNT
EXOSSX
EXGFOlYl
EXGFCNHl
--
EXOPSl
EXPFl
EXPFBAK
large pipeline project-related trans-
portation employment; thousand
proportion of state capital expenditures
funded by capital projects funds; percent
initial state capital expenditure level;
million $
initial highway construction expenditures
out of state capital project construction
funds; million $
construction expenditures (nonhighway)
out of capital project construction
funds at the state level; million$
percent of state current account balance
placed into development.fund (hypo-
thetical); percent
development fund (hypothetical) with-
drawals as percent of earnings; percent
annual debt service payment to service
general obligation bonds outstanding
at beginning of simulation period;
mi 11 ion $
initial general fund capital expenditure--
Department of Highways; million $
initial general fund capital expenditures---
all but Department of Highways;
mi 11 ion $
initial total state operating expenditures
net of debt service and University of
Alaska nongeneral fund assistance; it is
the sum of the 9 functional categories;
million $
percent contribution from available
funds to Permanent Fund; percent
percent of Permanent Fund earnings
plowed back into Permanent Fund;
percentage
B-99
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
11ay 1983
Alyeska employment based upon Alaska
Department of Labor estimates;
additional employment from
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
historical data
historical data
estimated from Department of
Administration, Executive Budget
estimated from Department of
Administration, Executive Budget
Department of Administration,
Annual Financial Report
estimated from Department of
Administration, Executive Budget
estimated from Department of
Administration, Executive Budget
estimated from Department of
Administration, Executive Budget
present law requires 25 percent
contribution rate on areas leased
before 1981 and 50 percent subsequently
present law directs all permanent
fund earnings into general fund
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
EXPRPER
EXSAVX
EXSPCAP
EXSPLITX
EXSUBSl
GODTX
GRDIRPU
GREXCAP
Permanent Fund contributions
appropriated from the general fund;
mi 11 ion $
percent of Permanent Fund earnings
transferred to general fund which are
distributed to individuals; percent
adjustment to state personnel expendi-
tures data for consistency with state
government employment data
if EXRLOP7 is invoked in determination
of state operating expenditures, this is
the amount of revenues not spent; million $
special state capital appropriations;
million $
the target allocation to operations
when state spending falls below the
authorized spending limit; percent
initial values for state subsidy pro-
grams initiated after 1980; million$
general obligation bonded indebtedness
of the state from debts incurred
before 1983; million $
annual growth rate of U.S. real
disposable personal income per
capita; percent
growth rate of state capital expendi-
tures if fiscal rule EXRL2 is used
B-100
historical data
author's estimate
author's estimate
zero in default case
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Department of Administration,
Annual Financial Report
Between 1950 and 1977, the average
annual growth rate of real disposable
personal incomes was 2.2 percent.
Within the period, the growth ranged
from 1.23 percent in the period 1950
to 1960 to 2.98 percent in the period
1960 to 1970. The simulation values
are based upon slower-than-normal
growth in the early 1980s, with a
gradual return to a long-run trend
somewhat below the historical rate.
See U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, The National Income
and Product Accounts of the U.S.
1929-74 & Survey of Current Business
inoperative in default case
-
-
-
-
-
-
GREXOPS
GRRPCEX
GRRWEUS
GRSSCP
GRUSCPI
-
-
-LPTRAT
·!"""
NCBP
I""'
I
NCRP
r
"""
nominal growth rate for state operating
expenditures if EXRL4 is chosen in the
state operating expenditure equation;
percent
growth rate real per capita state
operating expenditures if fiscal
rule EXRL3 is used
annual growth rate of real U.S.
average weekly earnings; percent
growth rate of real state capital
stock per capita when fiscal policy
variable EXRL3 is used
annual growth rate of U.S. consumer
price index; percent
percentage of pipeline property within
local jurisdictions actually subject
to local tax because of limitations
imposed by state statutes; percent
bonus income to Natives from lease
sales; mi 11 ion $
Native ·recurrent income from petroleum
development on Native land; million$
B-101
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
11ay 1983
inoperative in default case
inoperative in default case
the nominal historical annual average
growth rate has varied with the rate of
inflation. Its values are as follows:
1960-65, 3.34\; 1965-70, 4.6\; 1970-75,
6.52\; 1975-77, 7.53\. wages are assumed
in the projection period to grow faster
than the price level, implying a produc-
tivity increase of a similar magnitude.
See U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Monthly Labor Review
Historical annual average growth rates
of the consumer price index are as
follows: 1960-65, 1.3\; 1965-70,
4.2\; 1970-75, 6. 7\; 1975-77. 6. 1\.
The simulation values are based upon
projections by the Alaska Department
of Revenue. See also u.s. Dept. of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Survey of current Business
based upon Department of Community
and Regional Affairs, Alaska Taxable
author's estimate
author's estimate
P9PTPER
PCNCl
PCNC2
PCNC3
PCOLART
PDUSCPil
PIPAOJ
PR.OPIUl
RLPTX
RLTFPX
RLTX
RNATX
percentage of petroleum property which
is taxable by state which falls
within local taxing jurisdiction;
percentage
proportion of ANCSA payments paid
directly to individuals; percent
proportion of recurring income from
petroleum development on Native lands
paid directly in individuals; percent
proportion of earnings on Native
corporation accumulated capital paid
directly to individuals; percent
cost of living differential for
federal employees; percentage
initial value for U.S. consumer price
i ndex ; i ndex
ratio of "enclave" to regular construc-
tion employee wage rate
initial value for U.S. real per capita
disposable personal income; $
exogenous local property tax receipts;
mi 11 ion $
petroleum-related federal-local transfers;
mill ion $
exogenous state-local transfers; million$
Native personal income as percent of total
personal income calculated using income
distribution model
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Department of Community and
Regional Affairs, Alaska Taxable
based upon a 10\ distribution to
Stockholders in village corporations
and a 45\ distribution to at-large
stockholders; see Alaska Native
Land Claims, Arnold
author's estimate
author's estimate
author's estimate
historical data
assumed constant based upon ratio of
wages paid to heavy construction and
all other construction categories
during Alyeska pipeline construction
period; see Alaska Department of Labor,
Statistical Quarterly
historical data
zero in default case
author's estimate
zero in default case
values derived from income
distribution model; currently
inoperative
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RP9X exogenous miscellaneous petroleum author's estimate
revenues; million $ -RPBS state petroleum bonuses; million$ DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
RPPS state petroleum property tax; million$ DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
RPRY state petroleum royalty revenues; DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
mi 11 ion $
r
RPTS petroleum production taxes consisting DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO
of oil and gas severance tax; million$
r RSFDNPX federal-state shared petroleum royalties; author's estimate
mi 11 ion $
RSFDNX exogenous federal-state transfer default value is zero
payments; million$
.... RTCSPX state corporate tax receipts from DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO i petroleum sector; million$
!""" RTCSX exogenous corporate income tax; zero in default case
mi 11 ion $
RTISXX adjustment of disposable income to cover author's estimate
!""" lag in refund in state personal income
taxes after repeal; million$
~ SANCSA payments to Alaska Natives under ANCSA 16 percent of state royalty revenues
out of state royalty revenues; million $ until $493.1 million paid out
-TCRED individual tax credit beginning after zero in default case
12/31/77; dollars
TOURIST number of tourist visitors to Alaska; DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO ..... thousands
TXBASE change in the floor of personal income zero in default case
tax rate schedule; units
TXCRPC state personal income tax credit zero in default case
(percentage of tax liability)
adjustment; percentage
TXPTXX allows model user to withhold from default va 1 ue is zero ..... state expenditures a portion of any
personal income tax reduction; percent
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TXRT
ws
VAEXl
WEUSl
percentage change in state personal
income tax rate; percentage
U.S. unemployment rate; percent
value of a personal exemption on
personal income tax; dollars
initial value for average weekly U.S.
wage rate; $
zero in default case
author's estimate
author's estimate
historical data
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XXHX2 large projection manufacturing real
gross product
zero in default case
YR year
INPUT DATA ARCHIVES
Historical Data
AKDATA
AKRAWl
AKRAW2
AKRAW3
AKRAW4
AKRAWS
All historical data series which are either (1) used
in regression analysis, (2) are required to provide a
startup value for simulation, or (3) interesting and
relevant but not used in the model or not necessary to
model simulation (created by MACRO AB3HERGE fran raw
data files).
Raw e!Jl>loyment and wages data fran Alaska Department
of Labor, Statistical Quarterly.
Raw state expenditures data fran Office of the
Governor, Executive Budget.
Raw state budget data from Alaska Department of
Administration, Annual Financial Report.
Raw state revenue data from Alaska Department of
Revenue, Revenue Sources and Petroleum Revenue
Forecast.
Raw state income data from U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, unpublished
printouts.
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AKRAW6
AKRAW7
AKRA\IS
AKRAW9
AKHIST
Raw local fiscal data from U.S. Department of
carmerce, Bureau of Census, Government Finances and
State Government Finances.
Raw data from miscellaneous sources.
Alaskan gross state product data from model IPOAK.
National variables from various sources.
Data created by transformations of raw data in
archives AKRAWl to AKRAW9 (using A83TRANS) .
Simulation Data
CONHIST
CONTROL
FLAT
STARTUP
POPST2
Startup and control data specifically used for
historical simulation of the economic model.
Default values for all exogenous and policy variables
for projective simulation. In certain instances,
historical data is also included. Hany of these
variables are overridden in simulation by the scenario
model output.
Constant levels for exogenous employment variables
used to test model steady state properties.
Start up va 1 ues for a 11 endogenous vari ab 1 es in the
economic and fiscal cooponents of the model for which
a complete historical time series (up to the last year
before the first year of simulation) does not exist.
The values contained in these data files are values
specifically created for model simulation and should
not be used for any other purpose. In most cases, the
specific value for the variable is immaterial to the
output of the simulation since the purpose of these
variables is to give TROLL an initial value from which
to search for a solution to the simulation.
Start up va 1 ues for all endogenous var i ab 1 es in the
population component of the model for which a complete
historical time series (up to the last year before the
first year of simulation) does not exist. The values
contained in these data files are values specifically
created for model simulation and should not be used
for any other purpose. In most cases, the speci fie
value for the variable is immaterial to the output of
the simulation since the purpose of these variables is
to give TROll an initial value from which to search
for a solution to the simulation.
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A83FLAT
A83INIT -
A83MERGE
A83REG
A83RUN
A83RUNCD
A83RUNH
A83l"RANS
A83XPAR
LOOK
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and Economic Research
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Kay 1983
Deflates user-specified simulation output to 1982
real dollars using PDCPI
Sets searches to perform test simulation with
constant exogenous employment levels
Prints selected simulation results and compares
values to actual historical data
Combines individual historical data archives into a
single archive called AKDATA
Sets searches for regression analysis
Sets searches and calls state model (A83.2) for
simulation
Sets searches and calls regionalization model
(A83 .CD) for disaggregation of employment and
population to census division level.
Sets searches and calls model for historical
simulation
Performs transformations on raw data files to
create archive AKHIST
Prints model economic parameter values
Lists all archives in specified account
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8.10. Model Adjustments for Simulation
After preliminary estimation of all parameters and construction
of the model as well as whenever significant new data becomes
available, the model must be adjusted for simulation. The
objectives of the adjustments are to initialize the model so that
simulation values begin as closely as possible to actual historical
values, to correct any imbalances within the model structure which
show up in initial simulations, or to handle special conditions
which arise each year as the structure of the economy evolves.
Model initialization is difficult because the data for a particular
year becomes available over a period of more than one year. Thus,
at any point in time the most current historical data available will
vary over a two-year period, depending upon the variable and
source. As a general rule, the most important variables for
initializing the model are employment in total and by sector
(1982 preliminary data), total population (1982), wage rates by
industry (1980), and the price level (1982).
The following is a discussion of all adjustments and
initialization procedures used in the economic and fiscal modules in
the spring of 1983.
Wage rate intercept adjustments. Combined wage rates for
agriculture/forestry/fisheries and manufacturing (WRM9A9) as well as
communications with public utilities (WRCMPU) are stochastically
estimated over the historical period. For simulation, the
intercepts on the wage rate equations in these sectors are
initialized to their most current known values (C62A, C70A, C74A,
and C95A).
The intercept term in the equation determining the federal
civilian wage rate is adjusted upward (C89A). The rationale for
this is that the equation accurately reflects the long-term trend of
the wage rate growing with overall productivity of the labor force
but does not reflect short-run cyclical behavior. Thus, in a deep
recession year when the real average wage rate in the private sector
falls, one would not expect the real wage rate in federal civilian
government to immediately fall in response.
Price ratio adjustment. The term relating the relative Alaskan
price level (PDRATIO) to the growth in local support sector
employment has the correct sign and is significant in the regression
but in simulation performs poorly. Its value (C67A) is increased so
that the Alaskan price level is more responsive to growth in support
employment. The rationale for this adjustment is that the Alaskan
price level has proved to be sticky downward, and the recent
historical events, which should be putting downward pressure on
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Alaskan relative prices, are taking a long time having their impact
felt.
Local government wages and salaries (PC13C). The intercept term
on the equation relating local government personnel expenditures to
wages and salaries is adjusted upward to force consistency in the
most recent year between two data sources showing very different
movements.
State and local government wage rate equations. The equation
used to simulate state and local government wage rates are altered
so that the real wage in these sectors never falls below the level
of the previous year. The rationale for this adjustment is similar
to that used to adjust the federal wage rate.
Price ratio equation. This equation is adjusted to incorporate
the possibility of a one-time upward adjustment in some future year,
using the coefficient C67C, resulting from a reimposition of the
state personal income tax. This change would be essentially'
symmetrical, but opposite in sign, to the fall in the price level
which occurred in 1980 when the tax was eliminated.
General wage rate adjustment. All private sector wage rates are
adjusted upward over the interval 1980 through 1986 through the use
of the variable D.80DEC6. The wage rate equations are designed to
trend upward with the secular growth in the real average weekly wage
in the United States for which a close historical relationship can
be shown. In 1980, however, there was a dramatic one-year fall in
that indicator with no corresponding fall in real wages in Alaska in
spite of a dramatic fall in the relative price level. The reasons
are {1) that there was no recession in Alaska, (2) that wage rates
in Alaska are relatively inflexible on the down side, and (3) that
Alaska wage rate movements in general will respond to dramatic
reductions in the price level with a lag. We assume equilibrium is
restored in 1987.
State government wages and salaries. The historical
relationship between state personnel expenditures and state
government wages and salaries no longer holds. An adjustment factor
(EXPRPER) is entered into the equation relating those variables.
Total population. A discrepancy in the MAP and Alaska
Department of Labor estimates for Alaska population in 1982 comes
from the manner in which they were computed and, consequently, the
information they are intended to convey. The Alaska Department of
Labor (ADOL) population estimates are based on sample surveys of
population and housing units as of July 1 of the year. The ISER
population model projects forward the U.S. Census April 1, 1981,
benchmark population by adding the estimated excess of births over
deaths and the estimated net in-migration.
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The ISER figure is clearly an average annual population
estimate. Both the computation of births and deaths and the
statistical procedure used to estimate net migration are based on
measurements of year-to-year flows. There is no attempt to measure
seasonal fluctuations in the flows of births, deaths, or migration.
The ADOL figures, on the other hand, are based on a point estimate
of population as of July 1 of the year. In this sense, the
difference in the method of computation of the two estimates is
analogous to the difference between seasonally adjusted (ISER) and
not seasonally adjusted (ADOL) estimates.
There are several reasons why the Alaska population measured on
July 1 would be particularly large in 1982, relative to the average
figure for that year. In the first place, this was a year of
deteriorating economic conditions in the rest of the United states
and rapid immigration to Alaska. Because of this, it is likely that
a much higher-than-usual number of people were attracted to the
state in search of temporary seasonal employment, with the
possibility of staying longer if permanent work was available. Some
of these seasonal increments to the labor force are undoubtedly
counted in the July 1 survey, and the number was probably much
higher than usual in 1982.
In 1982, as well, the state of Alaska offered $1,000 to every
resident through the Permanent Fund Dividend Program. In addition
to the incentive this program provided for seasonal workers to take
steps to establish legal residency, the program encouraged longer-
term visitors for family or recreational pursuits to appear also to
be residents. There is no way accurately to determine the impact of
the Permanent Fund Dividend Program on reported July 1, 1982,
population.
Both explanations for the discrepancy in the 1982 figures
suggest that it will diminish quickly as economic conditions in the
United States improve and as the Permanent Fund Dividend Program is
phased out.
Composition of Employment--State Government and Services. The
rapid expansion of state operating expenditures since 1980 is
reflected in the model by an increase in state government
employment. A larger-than-average portion of the budget increases,
however, have gone into grants and contracts, which is reflected in
the employment statistics primarily in the service sector. The model
slightly overestimates state government employment but under-
estimates service employment by a like amount in the early 1980s.
No attempt is made to correct for this.
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8.11. Key to Regressions
Variable
State operating
budget component
State personnel
expenditure component
State revenues
Local revenues and
expenditures
Wage rates
Gross product
Employment
Symbol
EXaaa
EXPRaaa
Raaa
RLaa, ELaa
WRaa
xxaa
EM a a
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Range
(may vary with
particular variable}
1962 to 1981
1962 to 1981
various
various
1961 to 1980
1961 to 1980
1961 to 1980
APPENDIX C -
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
POPULATION MODULE
C.1 General Model Description C-1
C.2 Flow Diagram . . C-4 .....
C.3 Output Variables C-5
I"'"' C.4 Cohort Designation C-8
c.s Parameter Definitions C-9
C.6 Coefficients . . C-11
C.7 Input Variables for Population Module C-12
C.8 Input Data Sets C-13
C.9 Structural Description C-14
C.10 Regression Coefficients C-17
·"""' C.ll Parameter Values C-18
c. 12 Model Validation C-27 -I
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May 1983
The population module of the Alaska economic model provides
annual forecasts of total population and detailed population charac-
teristics for the State of Alaska. Population in each year is
estimated as an average annual value which is determined by the sum of
natural increase of the previous year's population and net immigration.
The former is based upon age-sex-race-specific fertility and mortality
rates. The latter is based upon a stochastically determined equation
relating net immigration to the change in employment opportunities in
Alaska, Alaskan unemployment, and real wage levels relative to the
U.S. average. This specification is based upon the theory that
migration flows clear regional labor markets, with people moving into
regions where employment opportunities are increasing faster than
local supplies can satisfy them and out of economically declining
regions.
The three main components of population--Native, military, and
civilian non-Native--each receive separate treatment because of dif-
ferent characteristics. The Native population can only migrate out of
Alaska and has different fertility and mortality rates than do
civilian non-Natives. The military population consists of armed
forces personnel and military dependents. Births, deaths, and net
migration are not calculated for this component of the population.
Its age-sex structure essentially remains constant in simulation, as
each year those leaving are replaced by individuals with identical
characteristics.
Total Population. Total population is the sum of the three
components of the population which are individually treated because of
different characteristics. These components are civilian/non-Native
population, Native population, and military population which is armed
forces personnel plus military dependents. Each of the components of
the population is divided into 30 age-sex cohorts. The population
under 1 year is the first cohort for each sex, and the 65-and-over
population is cohort 15. Cohort 2 is the population aged 1 through
4 years; all others span five years.
The military population is static in the sense that the age-sex
structure of both the armed forces personnel and the military depen-
dents does not change over time, nor does the ratio of military
dependents to armed forces personnel. The total military population
is calculated as a percentage of the 1980 military population and its
age-sex structure scaled accordingly.
Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase. Each year, a percentage of
individuals within each cohort die, and another percentage move into
the next cohort as people age. The aging process applies to all
individuals within a cohort, and the result of this process is an
"intermediate cohort" to which migrants must be added to arrive at the
final cohort value for the new year.
C-1
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May 1983
The population of the 0-1-aged cohort is determined by the number
of births, which is the sum of cohort-specific fertility rates applied
to the female population surviving from the previous year. While
mortality rates change very slowly, fertility rates are affected by a
number of socioeconomic variables. Since precise relationships cannot
be determined for Alaskan fertility rates, these are held constant in
the model for the projection period. A percentage of infants do not
survive, and a specific sex division of births is applied to total
births.
From these calculations, both infant deaths and total deaths can
be calculated as sums. Finally, natural increase is the excess of
births over deaths.
Civilian/Non-Native Migration. Net immigration is a function of
the year-to-year change in the level of total Alaskan civilian
employment, the percentage change in the lagged value of the Alaskan-
U.S. ratio of real weekly earnings, and the lagged ratio of U.S.-to-
Alaska unemployment rates. Migrants, according to this formulation,
will be drawn to Alaska in response to a tightening of the Alaskan
labor market indicated by low unemployment rates and rising real
wages. Higher relative unemployment rates and declining real wages
would cause net immigration to be negative.
Net immigration is distributed among the age-sex cohorts by a
two-step process. First, a percentage of each cohort of the popula-
tion leaves the state independent of the overall amount of net
migration. The remainder of net migration is allocated among all the
cohorts on the basis of a percentage of total net migration. (This
remainder can be a negative number.) Net migration to Alaska is
biased toward young males relative to the U.S. average.
Total civilian/non-Native population is finally calculated by
summing the population in each cohort including the results of the
migration process during the year.
Net Native Population. As with the civilian/non-Native popula-
tion, a percentage of individuals die each year within each cohort,
and a percentage age into the next cohort. Native births are the sum
of cohorts of the female population of child-bearing age times the
fertility rate for Natives within each cohort. Total Native births
are allocated between the sexes and reduced by the percentage of
Native infant deaths by sex. Native infant deaths are the difference
between total births and infant deaths, and total Native deaths
include those of all cohorts. Native natural increase is the excess
of births over deaths. The Native population migrates out of Alaska
at a rate independent of the level of economic activity.
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Two distinct definitions of the total Native population are
calculated. The first is based upon Native self-enumeration data from
the 1980 Census. This forms the basis for the age-sex distribution of
the Native population. A second larger number is calculated from the
number of enrollees for the twelve Native corporations residing in the
state. This latter concept of Native population is assumed to grow at
the same rate as the census-based Native population.
C-3
Age-Sex
Distribution
C.2 MAP Ecotlomic Population Module
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Real Wage
Relative to U.S.
'-------
Alaska
Population
C-4
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Economic
Model
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C.3 Output Variables of the Population Module
POP
CNNTOT
NATTOT
POPij
CNNPij
NATPij
POPC
BTOT
DTOT
POPNI9
POPM
MILPCT
Cij
BTHTOT
DTHINF
DTHTOT
NAT INC
NCij
NBTHTOT
NDTHINF
NDTHTOT
NNATINC
POPNE
POPMIG
MIGOUT
MIGIN
Total Population
Total Alaska population
Total Alaska civilian non-Native population
Total Alaska Native population (civilian)
Total Alaska population in cohort ij
Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
Alaska Native population in cohort ij
Alaska Population not in military service
Total Alaska civilian births
Total Alaska civilian deaths
Total Alaska civilian natural increase
Military Population
Alaska active duty military personnel
Alaska military population as a fraction of 1980 level
Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase
Alaska Civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
before migration
Total Alaska civilian non-Native births to civilian population
Alaska infant civilian non-Native deaths
Total Alaska civilian non-Native deaths
Alaska civilian non-Native natural increase
(Civilian) Native Natural Increase
Alaska Native population in cohort ij before migration
Total Alaska Native births
Alaska Native infant deaths
Total Alaska Native deaths
Alaska Native natural increase
Alaska Native enrollment population
Civilian Migration and Total Civilian Population
Total net civilian migration to Alaska
Exogenous civilian migration to Alaska
Endogenous civilian migration to Alaska
C-5
PLFDOHC
PLFDOMN
PLFDOilll
PLFD9
LF
UNEHP
WR.AK.US
U.AK.US
HH
HHC
HliN
llliM
CHHij
Nllliij
HHij
POPCGQ
POPNGQ
POPGQ
HHSIZEN
HHSIZEC
HHSIZE
POPSKL
POPKID
POPGER
PO PADS
POP.AD
POP .KID
POP.GER
POP .MIL
Labor Force and Unemployment
Institute of Social
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HAP Documentation
May 1983
Alaska potential civilian non-Native labor force
(population age 15 to 64)
Alaska potential civilian Native labor force
Alaska potential military labor force (military dependents
age 15 to 64, active-duty military are excluded)
Total Alaska potential civilian labor force
Total Alaska civilian labor force
Alaska unemployed
Relative real wage rate, Alaska to U.S.
Relative unemployment rate, Alaska to U.S.
Households
Total Alaska households
Total Alaska civilian non-Native households
Total Alaska civilian Native households
Total Alaska military households
Alaska households headed by civilian non-Native
persons in cohort ij
Alaska households headed by civilian Native persons
in cohort ij
Total Alaska households headed by persons in cohort ij
Non-Household Population and Average Household Size
Alaska civilian non-Native population in group quarters
Alaska Native population in group quarters
Total Alaska population in group quarters
Average Alaska Native household size
Average Alaska civilian non-Native household size
Average Alaska household size, all households
Special Population Characteristics
Total Alaska population age 5-19
Total Alaska population under 15
Total Alaska population 65 and over
Total Alaska population age 15-64
Ratio of Alaska population 15-64 to total population
Ratio of Alaska population under 15 to total population
Ratio of Alaska population 65 and over to total population
Ratio of Alaska military and military dependents to
total population
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POP.CIV
NCBR
NCDR
CBR
CDR
BCRUDE
DCRUDE
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May 1983
Ratio of Alaska Native population to total population
Ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population to
total population
Alaska crude Native birth rate (per thousand)
Alaska crude Native death rate
Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate
Alaska crude civilian non-Native death rate
Alaska crude civilian birth rate
Alaska crude civilian death rate
C-7
C.4 Cohort Designation
Sex (i)
F
M
Female
Male
Age (j)
1 Under 1 year
2 1 - 4
years
3 5 - 9 years
4 10 -14 years
5 15 -19 years
6 20 -24 years
7 25 -29 years
8 30 -34 years
9 35 -39 years
10 40 -44 years
11 45 -49 years
12 50 -54 years
13 55 -59 years
14 60 -64 years
15 65 years and older
C-8
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C.S Parameter Definitions
AFTOT
MD TOT
MILij
Gj
Sij
FERTj
SEXDIV
SURINFi
BADD
NSij
NFERTij
NSEXDIV
NSURINFi
NMij
OEMij
Mij
HHRij
NHHRij
RCij
NRCij
CPGQij
Military Population
Total armed forces personnel in 1980
Total military dependents in 1980
Armed forces personnel and military dependents
in cohort ij in 1980
Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase
Shift factor for aging of cohorts
Non-Native survival rate for cohort lJ
Non-Native fertility rate for female cohort J
Non-Native sex division at birth
Non-Native infant survival rates
Birth adjustment factor to account for birth of
Native children to non-Native women
(Civilian) Native Natural Increase
Native survival rate for cohort ij
Native fertility in female cohort j
Native sex division at birth
Native infant survival rates
Civilian Migration
Migration rate (positive for in, negative for out)
for Native population in cohort ij
Exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate (positive
for in, negative for out) for population in cohort ij
Fraction of total endogenous civilian (non-Native)
migration assigned to cohort ij
Household Formation
Household formation rate for civilian non-Native
population in cohort ij
Household formation rate for civilian Native
population in cohort ij
Rate of change in HHRij
Rate of change in NHHRij
Fraction of civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters
C-9
NPGQij
POP~IGQ
MHHAGE
LFPART
PLFRATE
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Fraction of civilian Native population in cohort ij
in group quarters
Military population in group quarters in 1980
Average age of head of military household
Labor Force
Labor force participation rate as a fraction of
potential labor force
Fraction of migrant population in potential labor force
C-10
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C.6 Coefficients
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Regression coefficients for net migration equation:
CMIGa Net migration to Alaska a = 1,2,3,4
C-11
Institute of Social
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May 1983
C.7 Input Variables for Population Module
The following variables require a forecast for each year:
EMGM Alaska military employment (thousands)
EM96 Total Alaska employment (thousands)
R.WR97 Average Alaska real wage rate
WEUS u.s. weekly earnings
PDUSCPI u.s. consumer price index
u.us
YR
u.s. unemployment rate
Year
All other population variables may be updated as new population
estimates become available.
C-12
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C.8 Input Data Sets
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Input data required to run the population module are
contained in the following data sets:
AKHIST
POPST2
Historical time series data
Estimated 1980 Alaska population
by age, sex, and race.*
*Alaska population by age, sex, and race cohorts estimated from
the 1980 U.S. Census are shown in Table C-6. These figures represent
Alaska population as of April 1, 1980, the date of the census.
Population estimates for the MAP population module, however, represent
average annual values. The census-derived figures for population
cohorts were adjusted to average annual figures using the following
procedure:
(1) The population module was simulated for one full year
starting from the April 1, 1980, population, but with
average annual 1980 employment and wage data.
(2) The average annual 1980 population estimates, contained
in the Data Set POPST2, were computed using the formula:
POPST2_POPijk = 0.25 *. [POPijk (1981) -POPijk (1980)]
where POPST2 POPijk is the average 1980 population of
sex i in age-cohort j and race k; POPijk(1981) is the
simulated 1981 population cohort, and POPijk(1980) is
the census April 1, 1980, cohort.
C-13
C.9 Structural Description
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Refer to the variable list and symbol dictionary for names and
symbols.
Total Population
POP = CNNTOT + NATTOT + MILPCT * (AFTOT + MDTOT)
POPij == CNNPij + NATPij + MILPCT * (AFPij + MDPij)
i = M, F
j = 1 to 15
POPM == EMGM
Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase
Cij --Gj ~'( Sij -1: CNNPij (-1) + (1-Gj-1) ~'( Si,j-1 -~~ CNNPi,j-1 (-1)
i = M, F
j = 2 to 15
11
BTHTOT --( I (CFj * FERTj)) -BADD
j=4.
CM1 SEXDIV * BTHTOT * SURINFM
CFl --(1-SEXDIV) * BTHTOT * SURINFF
DTHINF --BTHTOT -CMl -CFl
DTHTOT --DTHINF + L
15
L
i=M,F j=1
NATINC --BTHTOT -DTHTOT
(Cij(-1) * (1-Sij))
C-14
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(Civilian) Native Natural Increase
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
NCij == Gj ·k NSij .,., NATPi,j-1 + (1-Gj-1) -;, NSi,j-1 ,., NATPi,j-1 (-1)
i = M,F
j = 1 to 15
11
NBTHTOT == ( I (NCFj * NFERTj)) + BADD
j=4
NCPM1 == NSEXDIV * NBTHTOT * NSURINFM
NCPF1 == (1-NSEXDIV) -;, NBTHTOT ·k NSURINFF
NDTHINF == NBTHTOT -NCM1 -NCF1
15
NDTHTOT == NDTHINF + I I (NCij(-1) * (1-NSij))
i=M,F j=1
NNATINC == NBTHTOT -NDTHTOT
Civilian Migration and Total Civilian Population
NATPij = NCij ·k (1 + NMij) i=M,F j=1 to 15
POPMIG = CMIG1 + CMIG2 *1/U.AK.US(-1) + CMIG3 * WR.AK.US(-1)
+ CMI G4 .,._ DELEMP
15
MIGOUT = I I ( (OEMij .,., Cij) + (NMij ,., NCij))
i=-M,F j=1
MIGIN = POPMIG -MIGOUT
15
NATTOT = I I NATPij
i=M,F j=1
CNNPij = MIGIN -:, Mij + Cij ,., (1 + OEMij) (Mij _:-::_ 0) i=M,F j=1 to 15
C-15
15
CNNTOT = 2: 2: CNNPij
i=M,F j=1
Labor Force and Unemployment
14
PLFD9 --2: 2: POPij
i=M,F j=S
LF == LFPART * PLFD9
UNEMP == LF -EM96
U.AK.US == UNEMP/LF/U.US
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
WR.AK. US == LOG(R. WR97) -LOG(WEUS ·k 100/PDUSCPI) -
(LOG(R.WR97(-1))-LOG(WEUS(-1) ,., 100/PDUSCPI(-1)))
DELEMP == EM96 -EM96(-1)
C-16
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C.10 Regression Coefficients
Net Migration to Alaska
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
POPMIG = CMIG1 + CMIG2 * 1/U.AK.US(-1) + CMIG3 * WR.AK.US(-1)
+ CMI G4 ..,., DELEMP
Coefficient Value Standard Error t Statistic
CMIG1 -16.0216 5.5354 -2.8944
CMIG2 14.1206 5.4030 2. 6135
CMIG3 49.2216 13.7389 3.5827
CMIG4 0.9567 0.0969 9.8699
Range: 1971 to 1980 F(3,6) = 53.57
R2 = 0.964 standard error of regression = 2.816
Estimation method: generalized least squares (correction
for autocorrelation), p = 0.75
Notes: Historical series for POPMIG taken from the series
AKHIST POPMIGNW. Historical series for U.AK.US
taken from ANANHIST U.AK.USU. Other series archived
in ANANHIST.
C-17
C.11 Parameter Values
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Military Population (Table C-6)
AFTOT
MDTOT, MILij
From Alaska Air Command and J. Kruse,
Design and Implementation of Alaska
1980 Reapportionment Data Collection
Effort, ISER, August 1980.
Military age-sex-race distribution
outside Anchorage assumed equal to
Anchorage on-base distribution.
Anchorage figures from 1980 U.S.
Census, Anchorage Census Tracts 3
and 4.
Civilian Natural Increase
Gj
All Others
1/Tj where Tj is the number of
years spanned by age cohort j;
except G15 (65 and over) = 0
See Tables C-4 (birth rates) and C-5
(survival rates).
Civilian Migration
NMij
OEMij
Mij
Parameters assumed = 0.
information available on
Native population
See Table C-3.
Insufficient
migration of
Estimated from columns 1 and 2, Table C-1,
and columns 1 and 2, Table C-2.
Household Formation
Military
Households
Civilian
Households
Estimated using data from Alaska Air
Command and 1980 U.S. Census
See Appendix D
C-18
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Labor Force
LFPART
PLFRATE
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r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Ratio of sum of total civilian employment
and unemployment to civilian potential
labor force
Fraction of population 15-64 from
Table C-6
C-19
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-1: CIVILIAN MIGRATION TO ANCHORAGE,
ALASKA PUBLIC SURVEY SAMPLE
(N = 1,867 Individuals)
Interstate Non-Native
Migrants Alaska Natives Intrastate Total
Age Group F M F M F M F
Under 5 19 15 3 5 11 8 33
5-9 18 19 4 6 5 9 27
10-14 8 7 3 1 7 5 18
15-19 9 13 0 3 8 6 17
20-24 33 27 1 3 11 10 45
25-29 26 34 4 2 15 16 45
30-34 22 27 3 3 15 17 40
35-39 10 14 2 2 5 6 17
40-44 9 12 1 1 4 3 14
45-49 5 6 1 0 4 5 10
50-54 1 1 0 0 2 3 3
SS-59 2 3 0 0 2 2 4
60-64 1 1 0 0 0 2 1
65 and over 1 0 0 0 1 0 2
Total 164 179 22 26 90 92 276
NOTE: Figures include all members of the household of survey respondents
resident in community (in Alaska for interstate migrants) thirty-
six months or less.
C-20
M
28
34
13
22
40
52
47
22
16
11
4
5
3
0
297
-
-
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-
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-
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-
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-
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r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-2. ESTIMATED CIVILIAN MIGRATION RATES TO ANCHORAGE
(percent of migrants in each category)
All Non-Native
Interstate Migrants Alaska Natives Migrants
Age Group F M F M F M
Under 5 5.0 5.0 8.3 8.3 5.0 5.0
5-9 5.4 5.4 10.4 10.4 4.9 4.9
10-14 2.2 2.2 4.2 4.2 2.6 2.6
15-19 2.6 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.6
20-24 9.6 7.9 4.2 4.2 8.3 7.0
25-29 7.6 9.9 6.3 6.3 7.8 9.4
30-34 6.4 7.9 6.3 6.3 7.0 8.4
35-39 2.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 2.9 3.8
40-44 2.6 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.9
45-49 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 2.1
50-54 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8
55-59 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0
60-64 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
65 and over 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Total 47.1 52.9 50.0 50.0 47.9 52.1
SOURCE: Data from Alaska Public Survey.
C-21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-3. ESTIMATED EXOGENOUS OUT-MIGRATION RATES
Percent of Migrants Percent of Age-Sex Cohort
Age Group F M F M
Under 5 5.8 5.8 10.77 10.17
5-9 5.8 5.8 10.76 10.37
10-14 2.9 2.9 5.17 4.79
15-19 3.3 3.3 5. 10 4.98
20-24 3.2 3.6 4.52 5.33
25-29 7.0 8.2 8.79 9.98
30-34 5.8 8.1 7.42 9. 77
35-39 4.0 5.2 6.56 9.35
40-44 3.2 3.5 7.26 6.38
45-49 1.8 1.4 4.49 3.26
50-54 1.9 1.9 7.09 5.61
55-59 1.1 1.3 4.41 5.07
60-64 1.3 1.3 9.60 8.55
65 and over 0.3 0.3 1.41 1. 78
Total 47.4 52.6 6.63
SOURCE: Richard Ender, Anchorage Urban Observatory and U.S. Census, 1980.
C-22
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-4. 1980 BIRTHS: NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND BIRTH RATES
PER THOUSAND WOMEN IN FIVE-YEAR AGE COHORTS,
ALASKA RESIDENTS
Native Non-Native
Age of Mother No. of Births Rate No. of Births Rate
10-14 years 1 0.3 5 0.4
15-19 years 438 138.5 686 48.4
20-24 years 821 297.9a 2,632 145.1a
25-29 years 528 173.3 2,548 127.2a
30-34 years 260 101.1 1,212 71.7
35-39 years 84 46.5 283 22.7
40-44 years 18 12.7 38 4.3
Not Stated 1 2
Total 2,151 7,406
(9,557 total births in Alaska in 1980)
aRate includes one case where age was not stated.
SOURCE: Number of births from Alaska Department of Health and Social
Services, Office of Information Systems; and Alaska Native
Medical Center, Anchorage.
C-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-5. 1980 DEATHS: NUMBER OF DEATHS AND DEATH RATES
PER THOUSAND, ALASKA RESIDENTS
NATIVE NON-NATIVE
Female Male Female Male
Age Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number
<28 Days 8 7.63 14 12.69 16 4.48
28 days -10 12.36 13 15.53 11 3.15 1 year
1-4 yrs. 3 1.09 4 1.36 8 0.67
5-9 2 0.55 3 0. 78 1 0.07
10-14 1 0.28 5 1. 32 1 0.08
15-19 10 3.16 24 6.70 6 0.42
20-24 8 2.90 32 10.00 9 0.50
25..:29 11 3.61 29 8.60 13 0.65
30-34 10 3.89 13 4.34 13 0. 77
35-39 8 4.42 22 10.10 13 1.04
40-44 9 6.34 17 9.82 15 1.71
45-49 3 2.67 8 5.87 20 2.74
S0-54 12 12.90 12 10.80 22 3.54
55-59 10 13.00 19 21.20 40 7.89
60-64 8 16.00 19 33.50 34 10.30
65 + 45 31.10 91 63.20 148 34.10
Totals 158 325 370
SOURCE: Number of deaths from Alaska Department of Health and
Social Services, Office of Information Systems.
C-24
24
21
11
2
6
22
50
56
50
28
43
43
59
76
77
268
836
Rate
6.26
5.81
0.87
0.14
0.43
1. 36
2.38
2.52
2.54
1.88
4.00
4.99
7.76
12.92
20.62
62.05
"""'
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TABLE C-6. ALASKA POPULATION, APRIL I, 1980
Native Population Civilian Non-Native Military Population Total Population
Age Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male
-~--
0 -1 1,646 806 840 5,648 2,763 2,885 1,459 732 727 8, 753 4,301 4,452
1 - 4
5,674 2,734 2,940 19,061 9,020 10,041 5,461 2,854 2,607 30,196 14,608 15,588
5 - 9 6,867 3,390 3,477 22,502 10,983 11,519 5,674 2, 727 2,947 35,043 17,100 17,943
10 -14 7,433 3,638 3,795 23,264 11,206 12,058 3,585 1,718 1,867 34,282 16,562 17,720
15 -19 8,346 4,091 4,255 25,048 11,965 13,083 3,760 1,279 2,481 37,154 17,335 19,817
20 -24 6,899 3,445 3,454 27,681 14,168 13,513 10,510 3,291 7,219 45,090 20,904 24,186
25 -29 5,639 2,798 2,841 35,490 17,029 18,461 7,516 3,254 4,262 48,645 23,081 25,564
30 -34 4,373 2,179 2, 194 32,480 14,929 17,551 5,310 2,379 2,931 42,163 19,487 22,676
n 35 -39 3,539 1,753 1,786 24,961 11,506 13,455 2,847 1,001 1,846 31,347 14,260 17,087 I
N
Ln
40 -44 2,802 1,376 1 ,426 18,280 8,008 10,272 1,593 816 777 22,675 10,200 12,475
45 -49 2,657 1,301 1,356 15,440 6,992 8,448 298 120 178 18,395 8,413 9,982
so -54 2,176 1,074 1,102 13,422 5,938 7,484 250 125 125 15,848 7,137 8, 711
55 -59 1,802 857 945 10,734 4,940 5,794 81 43 38 12,617 5,840 6, 777
60 -64 1,307 679 628 6, 751 3,095 3,656 38 19 19 8,096 3,793 4,303
65 + 2,875 1, 411 1,464 8,600 4,263 4! 337. 72 57 15 11,547 5, 731 5,816
64,035 31,532 32,503 289,362 136,805 152,557 48,454 20,415 28,039 401,851 188,752 213,099
~~til t-1 SOURCE: 1980 U.S. Census til ::l ::l '< l-lj c. (ll
rt ,__. d M f-J·
1.00nrt
oonoc
W§::lrt 0 (1)
(1) s
::l f-J· 0
rtnH->
til
rt:;;dCfl
f-J• (1) 0 o (ll n
::l (1) f-J·
til til
~ ,__.
n ::r
C.12 Model Validation
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The population module of the economic model uses as the basis of
its forecasts the demographic characteristics of the population
enumerated by the 1980 U.S. Census. No detailed enumeration of the
state population has been undertaken since the 1980 Census. The most
recent past detailed population count that could be used to test the
ability of the full module to predict demographic shifts up to 1980 is
the 1970 U.S. Census. Conceptually, one could use the population
module to 11 predictu the 1980 population given the 1970 population
characteristics and estimated migration between 1970 and 1980.
Such a test is impractical, however, since Alaskan cohort-
specific birth, death, and household formation rates changed signifi-
cantly between the 1970 and 1980 Census benchmarks. Consequently, one
would not expect a module to forecast population changes accurately
during this period using the 1980 parameters.
Although it is not practical to test predictions of the full
population module against historical events, it is possible to examine
closely one important component of the module--net migration. The
equation forecasting net civilian migration was estimated using recent
historical data. To the extent that future economic conditions
resemble those that have occurred in the past decade, the ability of
the module equation to estimate historical migration flows provides a
reliable indicator of the type and magnitude of likely future fore-
casting errors. Table C-7 displays a comparison of actual estimated
net civilian migration to the migration equation predictions in the
years for which it is possible to compute a forecast from available
data.
C-26
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Fj
, I
,.
, I
r , I
r
I
r
I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-7. COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PREDICTED
NET MIGRATION TO ALASKA
Implied Net
Civilian Regression
Year Migration 1 Prediction2 Difference
1980 -7,900 -4,566 -3,334
1979 -10,490 -12,694 2,204
1978 -14,270 -12,963 -1,307
1977 -4,460 -3,008 -1,452
1976 22,530 23,324 794
1975 33,760 33,140 620
1974 10,380 14,443 -4,063
1973 4,290 3,660 630
1972 6,050 3,539 2,511
1971 4,000 2,116 1,884
1 Net migration in year t is defined as the difference between the
(mid-year) population estimate for year t and for year t-1, less the
excess of births over deaths (computed as a two-year moving average),
adjusted to exclude estimated military population changes.
2 Using the equation presented in Section C-10, including the
estimate of serial correlation in the error term.
C-27
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'~
APPENDIX D
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
HOUSEHOLD FORMATION MODULE
D. 1 Model Description D-1
D.2 Parameter Assumptions D-4
D. 3 Projecting Alaskan Households in the Future D-B
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
.Al,
··~
-
·M>,.
'~
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I~
D.l Model Description
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
A household is a living unit of one of two types: a family or an
individual or group of individuals, not related, who are living as a
unit.
The population projections determine the number of households in
the state. The number of households is a function of both the level
of population and its age-sex distribution. The age-sex distribution
of the population is important because the rate at which people form
households differs across age-sex cohorts. This household formation
module accounts for both of these influences of population on house
hold formation.
The household formation module is an accounting model which
depends on a set of assumptions about the age-sex cohort-specific
rates of household formation, known as headship rates, and changes in
those rates. The module is based on the assumption that the social,
economic, and life-cycle factors which determine the formation of
households can be described by a set of headship rates. Headship
rates describe the probability that a person in a particular cohort is
a household head.
The module requires input from the population module in the form
of the projected size and age-sex distribution of the population. The
total number of households in the state (HH) is equal to the number of
households summed across age and sex cohorts.
(1) HH = .n: HH .. 1J ij
The total number of households in sex cohort i and age cohort j
(HH .. ) describes the number of households with household head or
priffiary individual in the ith sex and jth age cohort. This total is,
in turn, composed of three components: the number of civilian/
non-Native households in cohort ij (CHH .. ), the number of Native
households in cohort ij (NHH .. ), and the n~ber of military households
in cohort ij (MHH .. ). 1 J
1J
(2) HH. . = CHH . . + NHH. . + MHH ..
1J 1J 1J 1J
The number of civilian and Native households in each cohort is a
function of the population and headship rate for the cohort. The
number of households in any cohort equals the cohort-specific headship
rate (HHR .. for civilian/non-Natives and NHHR .. for Natives) multi
plied by f.-he cohort population (CNNP. . for ci~ilian/non-Natives and
NATP .. for Natives) net of the proporf.lon of the population in group
quarUrs (CPGQ.. for civilian/non-Natives and NPGQ.. for Natives). 1J 1J
D-1
(3) CHH. . = CNNP. . ..,,_ (1 CPGQ .. ) i• llliR ..
lJ lJ 1] lJ
(4) NHH .. = NATP .. '" (1 -NPGQ .. ) ..,., NHHR .. lJ lJ lJ lJ
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The cohort distribution of military households (~rHH .. ) is assumed
to remain constant throughout the projection period. 1_Phe number of
military households (~lliH .. ) equals the number in 1980. lJ
The headship rates have changed historically and are expected to
continue to vary. The headship rates are assumed to approach a
specified target over a specified time period. Thus, the headship
rate in any year equals:
(5) HHR HHR (80 ) Rc ..,., log(T-80) . . = . . + . . log TP lJ lJ lJ
(6) NHHR ~rrrum (8 0) + NRC * log (T-80)
ij = ~Dllfiij ij log NTP
where RC.. (NRC .. ) is the specified target change for non-Natives
(Natives iJ and TPJ (NTP) is. the time period in which the change is
assumed to take place.
The model also calculates Native, civilian/non-Native, and total
population in group quarters, as well as average household size for
Natives, civilian/non-Natives, military, and total population.
(7) NPGQ = = 2:2: (NPGQ. . ..,., NATP .. ) . . lJ lJ lJ
(8) CPGQ = = II (CNNP .. ..,., CPGQ .. )
lJ lJ
( 9) POPGQ = = NPGQ + CPGQ + MILPCT ..,., MPGQ
(10) lillSIZEN (NATTOT NPGQ) I :u N1lli .. lJ ij
(11) HHSIZEC = = (CNNTOT -CPGQ) / II CHH ..
ij lJ
(12) HHSIZEM = = (MILPCT "~• [AFTOT + MDTOT -MPGQ]) / n: NHH .. . . lJ lJ
(13) HHSIZE = = (POP -POPGQ) / HH
D-2
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D.2 Model Parameter Assumptions
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The model was calibrated using the 1980 Census as a benchmark.
The civilian/non-Native and Native headship rates were calculated from
the statewide census data. These parameter values are shown in
Table D-1.
The civilian/non-Native and Native population proportions in
group quarters, also derived from the census, are assumed to remain a
constant proportion of each cohort over the projection period. These
are shown in Table D-2.
Military households are taken directly from the 1980 Census and
are shown in Table D-3. The age-sex distribution of military house
holds is assumed to remain constant over time and to increase or
decrease proportionately as total military population changes. The
proportion in group quarters also remains the same constant proportion
of total military as it was in 1980.
The parameters determining the rates of change of headship rates
are discussed in the next section.
D-3
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE D-1. 1980 ALASKA CIVILIAN HEADSHIP RATES
Civilian/Non-Native Native
Age Male Female Male Female
15-19 .063 .036 .025 .026
20-24 .553 .201 . 257 .127
25-29 .742 .234 .539 .188
30-34 .836 .237 .691-.219
35-39 .905 .215 .807 .227
40-44 .914 .216 .807 .227
45-49 .943 .224 .864 .267
50-54 .931 .223 .864 .267
55-59 .923 .262 .893 .297
60-64 .922 .320 .925 .330
65+ .884 .466 .888 .503
NOTES: Assumes 1970 distribution for age 15-54 in group quarters
after military in group quarters of 8,078 males and
1,365 females was subtracted from total age 15-54 in
group quarters. Other group quarters by cohort is
from U.S. Census.
Assumes no Natives in military.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1980,
Census of Population, Census Tape STF2, Table 11.
D-4
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-
-
-
-
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Age
~
' ' < 1
1-4 -5-9
10-14
15-19 -20-24 I,
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
~ 45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+ -
-! :
-SOURCE:
!"!"'
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE D-2. ALASKA CIVILIAN POPULATION IN GROUP QUARTERS, 1980
Non-Native Native
Male Female Male Female
Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
71 .0071 41 '.0045 12 .0041 7 .0026
53 .0046 35 .0032 20 .0058 20 .0059
53 .0044 35 .0031 20 .0053 20 .0055
569 .0435 48 .0040 160 .0376 98 .0240
986 .0729 401 .0283 239 .0692 98 .0284
439 .0238 69 .0040 115 .0405 33 . 0118
291 .0166 33 .0022 69 .0314 20 .0092
374 ---"0278 13 .0011 40 .0224 10 .0057
379 .0369 29 .0036 41 .0288 4 .0029
331 .0392 64 .0092 35 .0258 12 .0092
198 .0265 30 .0051 20 .0181 12 . 0112
154 .0266 46 .0093 22 .0233 11 .0128
98 .0268 10 .0032 22 .0350 7 .0103
281 .0648 320 .0751 61 .0417 72 .0510
4,277 1,174 876 424
u.s. Census Tape STF2B
D-5
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May 1983
.....
TABLE D-3. ALASKA MILITARY HOUSEHOLDS
(percent of total)
Age Male Female
15-19 .6 . 1 -
20-24 18.3 .6
25-29 29.1 .9 ~
30-34 23.7 .3 -35-39 15.8 .2
40-44 6.7 . 1 -
45--49 1.7 .1
50-54 1.0 . 1 ~
i
55-59 .3 -60-54 . 1
65+ . 1 .1
SOURCE: 1980 Census, Census Tapes. ....
....
'~
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D-6
D.3 Projecting Alaskan Households in the Future
National Trends
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The relationship between population and the number of households
has not remained constant over time. Table D-4 shows historical
trends in the size and composition of households in the United States
since 1940. Average household size has declined steadily since World
War II, primarily as a result of the increase in the proportion of
"primary individual" households. The average size of families
actually increased after the war until the mid-1960s because of the
"baby boom," but this was more than compensated for by the fact that
the average household size of "primary individual" households has
fallen dramatically from 1.94 to 1.19 in 1980.
Somewhat more detail on recent historical trends is provided by
Table D-5 which focuses on the composition of households in the last
ten years. Total households increased by 27 percent over that period
in contrast to an increase in population of 7. 6 percent. Family
households increased by 15.7 percent while nonfamily households grew
78 percent.
Part of the decline in average household size for families can be
attributed to the relative growth of one-parent households and
families with no children less than 18 years of age. All categories
of nonfamily households grew rapidly t but those with more than one
member grew most rapidly at 157 percent. This category includes both
couples living together and groups of unrelated individuals sharing
households.
The dominant factors which underlie these trends are the in
creased life expectancy of people, which has increased the proportion
of older-couple family householdst and more importantly the aging of
the post-war baby boom population which is now entering the primary
headship years both in and out of families.
These trends have been projected forward nationally by the
Department of Commerce (Table D-6) to predict the number of households
in the future under different sets of assumptions of population (I,
II, III) and headship rates (At Bt C, D).
These projections all assume a continued reduction of average
household size during the next fifteen years. A control projection,
Kt is presented which assumes no change in headship rates to isolate
the effect of population growth alone on the number of households.
D-7
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TABLE D-4. HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLDS
IN THE UNITED STATES
(thousands)
Primary Families Primary Individuals
Households
1940
1950 43,554
1955 47,874
1960 52,799
1965 57,436
1970 63,401
1975 71' 120
1979 77 '330
1980 80' 776
Average
Household
Size
3.67
3.37
3.33
3.33
3.29
3.14
2.94
2.78
2.76
Number
38,838
41 '732
44,905
47,838
51' 456
55,563
57,498
59,550
Average
Family Size
3.76
3.54
3.59
3.67
3.70
3.58
3.42
3.34
3.31
Percent of
Households
89.2
87.2
85.0
83.3
81.2
78.1
74.4
73.7
Number
4, 716
6,142
7,895
9,598
11 '945
15,55 7
19,831
21,226
Average
Family Size
1. 94
1. 61
1.40
1.28
1.25
1.23
1. 19
1.19
SOURCES: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract, 1979.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports,
Population Estimates and Projections, Series P-25, No. 805, May 1979.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports,
Household and Family Characteristics: March 1979, Series P-20, No. 352, July 1980.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports,
Households, Families, Marital Status and Living Arrangements, Series P-20, No. 376,
October 1982.
_j .J
Percent of
Households
10.8
12.8
15.0
16.7
18.8
21.9
25.6
26.3
t:1
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\0
1
Total
Family Households
Married Couples
Other Family Households
Nonfamily Households
Persons Living Alone
Other Nonfamily Households
-·· l .... l
TABLE D-5. U.S. HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
IN THE MOST RECENT DECADE
1980 1970
Millions Percent Millions Percent
80.776 63.401
59.550 73.7 51.456 81.2
49.112 60.8 44.728 70.5
10.438 12.9 6.728 10.6
21.226 26.3 11.945 18.8
18.419 22.8 10.851 17.1
2.807 3.5 1.094 1.7
Percent Growth
1970 to 1980
27.4
15.7
9.8
55.1
77.7
69.7
156.6
SOURCES: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports,
Household and Family Characteristics: March 1979, Series P-20, No. 352, July 1980.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports,
Households, Families, Marital Status, and Living Arrangements, Series P-20, No. 376.
l
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE D-6. PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLDS AND
HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION IN 1995
Dept. of a
Commerce Average
Projection Household Family Nonfamily
Series Households Size Households Percent Households
1979 (BASE) 77 '330 2.78 57,498 74.4 19,831
A I 107,528 2.46 72,709 67.6 34,819
II 2.31
III 2.21
B I 103,856 2.55 72,234 69.4 31,622
II 2.39
III 2.28
c I 104,194 2.54 70' 715 67.8 33,479
II 2.38
III 2.28
D I 97,180 2. 72 71,590 73.5 25,590
II 2.55
III 2.44
K 94,192 71,424 75.8 22,768
aFor definition of terms, see text.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current
Population Reports, Projection of the Number of Households
and Families, 1979 to 1995, Series P-25, No. 805, May 1979.
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25.6 ""''
32.4 -
-30.6
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32.2
26.5
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May 1983
For high rates of population growth (primarily due to natural
increase), the average household size in 1995 would vary between 2.46
and 2.72. For low rates of population increase (fewer births and more
deaths), average household size is projected to decline to between
2.21 and 2.44. Conversion of these trends in household size into
annual rates of change yields a range of from -01.5 percent annually
for the high population growth case to -.1 percent for the low popula-
tion growth case.
Alaskan Trends
Turning to Alaska, the data is not so complete, but some trends
can be identified. Table D-7 shows the growth in the number of house-
holds since 1950 and their composition. Several similarities and
contrasts with the national trends are in evidence. Briefly, they are
as follows:
Similarities
o Average household size has fallen since 1970.
o Average family size has fallen.
o The importance of female family heads has increased dramatically.
o The proportion of family households has declined at about the
rate of the United States.
Contrasts
o The average household size for nonfamily households has not
declined.
o In 1950 the average household size was below the national
average, but since 1960 it has exceeded the national average by a
substantial amount.
Average household size estimates from surveys conducted in
Anchorage and Fairbanks in the mid-1970s confirm the declining trend
in average household size. Estimates of 3. 27 to 3. 32 for Anchorage
for 1975 and 3.18 for 1977 have been published by the Anchorage Urban
Observatory. An estimate of 2. 9 for 1976 for Fairbanks has been
published by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER).
Further comparison of Alaska with other states reveals that in
1980, the average household size in Alaska of 2.93 was fourth highest
in the nation, after Hawaii (3.15), Utah (3.20), and Mississippi
(2.97). Alaska experienced the greatest change between 1970 and 1980.
Household size fell 16.8 percent, compared to the U.S. average which
fell 11.6 percent.1
1 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical
Abstract of the United States 1981, December 1981.
D-11
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TABLE D-7. ALASKA HISTORICAL HOUSEHOLD STATISTICS
All Householdsa Primary Family Householdsa Primary Individual Householdsa
1950b
1960b
l960c
1970d
1970c
1976e
1980f
Persons
Households in HH
31,047 100,779
57,250 199,982
57,250 200,418
79.0 54 278,039
79,7 39 278,145
104,000 339,000
132,369 385.608
*Person per household
Average
HH Size*
(2) I (1)
3.25
3.49
3.50
3.52
3.49
3.26
2.91
Households Husband/ Male Female All
No. (~) Wife Head Head Persons
NA 21,788 NA NA NA
46,261 (80.8) 42,7 50 NA NA 184,385
46,613 ( 81.4) 43,172 1,235 2.706 185,655
66,034 ( 8 3. 5) 61,697 4,067 258,469
66.670 ( 8 3. 6) 60,380 2,233 4,057 258,640
82,000 (7 8.8) 70,000 2,000 8,000 298,000
96,840 ( 7 3. 2) 82, 102 4.683 10,055 332,161
a6y definition, Primary Families and Primary Individuals sum to total households.
Average
HH Size*
(9) I (5)
NA
3.99
3.98
3.91
3.88
3.71
3.43
Households
No. ~
NA
10,989 (19.2)
10,637 (18.6)
13,025 (16.5)
13,069 (16.4)
22.000 (21.2)
35,529 (26.8)
bu.s. Census of Population, 1960, General Population Characteristics PC(1) 36, Table 19. pp. 3-26, May 1961.
cu. s. Census of Population, Detailed Characteristics PC(1) 03, Alaska, Table 153, pp. 3-246, June 1972.
du.s. Census of Population, General Characteristics PC(l) 63, Table 22, pp. 3-43, September 1971.
ecurrent Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 334, Table 4, p. 24, January 1979.
Male Female All
Head Head Persons
NA NA NA
NA NA 15,597
7,804 2,833 14,763
8,674 4,351 19,570
8,654 4,415 19.505
14,000 9,000 41,000
22,606 12,923 53,447
fu.s. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Supplementary Report, Advance Estimates of Social, Economic,
and Housing Characteristics, Table P-1. 1980.
.I J ) 1
Average
HH Size*
(15)/( 12)
NA
1.42
1.39
1.5
1.49
1.5
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Finally, it is possible to compare the age-sex-specific headship
rates in Alaska with those in the United States as a whole. Table D-8
compares the civilian headship rates in Alaska with those of the
United States as a whole by age, sex, and race. As expected, the
average headship rate for Alaskan Natives is considerably less than
that of the population as a whole. The average headship rate for
civilian/non-Native males was less than or equal to the national
average, while for females it was, in most cases, greater.
Projections
Although there are some apparent differences between the patterns
of household formation in the United States overall and for civilian/
non-Native Alaskans in the aggregate, the rates are similar. There
was, in 1980, a smaller proportion of nonfamily households in Alaska,
but average household size exceeded the national average. The prob-
ability of being a household head was greater for a civilian/non-
Native Alaska female than in the United States, but in contrast,
somewhat less for males. Alaska's difference from future national
trends should be due ma~nly to its demographic composition; for
example, smaller-than-average population of retired people should
reduce the rate of household formation. Alaska's pattern of growth in
population because of in-migration (rather than births) should
increase the rate of household formation. (This does not necessarily
imply, however, a reduction in average household size.)
We project that household formation in Alaska will become more
like the U.S. average rates over the projection period. We expect
both U.S. and Alaska rates to change over the period; however, we do
not expect the rapid change experienced in the past to continue. We
assume that Alaska rates approach the U.S. year-2000 rates in a loga-
rithmic trend and reach this rate by 2010.
Table D-9 shows the projected pattern of U.S. change. The year-
2000 projections were found by extending the logarithmic trend found
between 1970 and 1980 to the year 2000. The log trend assumes that
headship rates are approaching some limit of change. The rates of
change for each Alaska cohort (RC .. ) equal the difference between 1980
rates and these projected 2000 U.S~ rates.
Trends in Native headship rates are more difficult to project
because of the rapid social and economic changes occurring in the
Native community. We assume that urbanization of the Native community
will continue and, with it, a trend in headship rates similar to that
in the nation as a whole. Thus, the same pattern of change in
headship rates is applied to the Native population; however, the
Natives are assumed to approach U.S. rates over a longer period.
D-13
Male
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
Female
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
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May 1983
TABLE D-8. COMPARISON OF 1970 ALASKA AND
U.S. HEADSHIP RATES
Alaska
Civilian/Non-Native
.063
.553
.742
.836
.905
.914
.943
.931
.923
.922
.884
.036
.201
.234
.237
.215
.216
.224
.223
.262
.320
.466
Native
.025
. 257
.539
.691
.807
.807
.864
.864
.893
.925
.888
.026
.127
.188
.219
.227
.227
.267
.267
.297
.330
.503
United States
. 415
.759
.886
.928
.928
.942
.942
.922
.922
.828
.162
.213
.205
.194
.194
.211
.211
.268
.268
.509
NOTES: Assumes 1970 distribution for age 15-54 in group quarters
after military in group quarters of 8,078 males and
1,365 females was subtracted from total age 15-54 in
group quarters. Other group quarters by cohort is
from U.S. Census.
Assumes no Natives in military
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1980,
Census of Population, Census Tape STF2.
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TABLE D-9. u.s. HEADSHIP RATE PROJECTIONS
Age Males Females
1970 1980 2000 1970 1980 2000
20-24 .520 .415 .365 .098 .162 .193
25-29 .828 .759 .726 .114 .213 .260
30-34 .904 .886 .877 .118 .205 .247
35-44 .931 .928 .927 .130 .194 .225
45-54 .946 .942 .940 .167 . 211 .232
55-64 .950 .922 .909 .265 .268 .269
65+ .908 .828 .938 .452 .509 .536
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
U.S. Census 1970, 1980.
D-15
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E.l.
E.2.
E.3.
E.4.
E.5.
E.6.
E.7.
APPENDIX E
ISER MAP ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM:
REGIONALIZATION MODEL
Model Description .
Flow Diagram . .
Inputs . . . .
Variable and Parameter Names
Parameter Values . . . . . . . . . .
Model Validation . . . . . .
Programs for Model Use . . . . .
.
.
.
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May 1983
. . . . E-1
. E-5
. . . . E-7
. . . . E-9
. E-13
. E-25
.E-29
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E.l. Model Description
Introduction
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
This appendix presents in general outline form the structure of
the revised regionalization model which allocates population,
households, and employment to the census division level from a
simulation of the state economic model. Southeast census divisions
and Bristol Bay Borough census divisions are aggregated due to a
prior constraint imposed by limited computer capabilities. The
model essentially takes cross-sectional information on employment
and population and projects the panel forward through time. The
regional allocations are affected by variation over time in the
location of basic sector and government activity. The total support
employment and dependent population proportions vary over time to
maintain consistency with the results of the state model.
In developing this model, several major objectives have been
addressed as follows:
o that the structure be simple and generalizable
o that the parameters be specified in terms with clear,
intuitive meaning
o that the regions be disaggregated to census division
levels
o that the model be sufficiently flexible to be tied
easily to the MAP statewide model
As such, the main strength of the model is in providing
interregional consistency for any simulation analysis. On the other
hand, because it treats each region in quite aggregate form, it
cannot substitute for a detailed economic analysis for a particular
labor market area, and in general the chance of· projection error
increases as the size of the census division analyzed declines.
The model consists of two components. First, given an exogenous
estimate of statewide employment by sector (provided from a
corresponding state model run) and vectors of basic and government
employment in each of the twenty regions ( 1970 census division
aggregates and Alaska Department of Labor, Labor Market Areas), the
employment component of the model allocates support and total
employment to each of the twenty regions. The population component
then uses these estimates along with estimates of statewide
population and households (from the statewide model) to generate
regional population and household allocations.
The Employment Component
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For each .of the twenty regions, the model projects three types
of employment: basic, government, and support. The basic sector
consists of (1) all sectors or portions of sectors treated as
exogenous 1n the state model: agriculture, fisheries, exogenous
manufacturing, mining, exogenous construe tion, and a portion of
transportation, as well as (2) some sectors which are endogenous in
the state model: endogenous construction, £ores try, miscellaneous,
endogenous manufacturing, proprietors, and tourism employment.
Government consists of federal civilian and military employees as
well as state and local employees. State and local government are
endogenous in the state model, but exogenous in the regionalization
model. The support sector is defined as all other employment.
Total employment (M.aa) in each region aa is the sum of basic
(B.aa), government (G.aa), and support (S.aa) employment.
M.aa = B.aa + G.aa + S.aa
Support employment in any region aa is a function of total
employment in every region of the state as follows:
bb
S.aa = S M.bb * A.aa.bb * BETA
where A.aa.bb is the proportion of support sector employment
stimulated by an increase in total employment in region bb which is
observed in region aa •• The preliminary estimate is adjusted by the
parameter BETA to yield a final figure which, when aggregated, is
consistent with the state model simulation. According to this model
formulation, an increase in basic or government employment in a
single region can, in theory, give rise directly and indirectly to
support employment in every other region of the state.
The support employment is calculated for each region aa based
upon demand in region bb as follows:
S.aa.bb = A.aa.bb * M.bb * BETA
The Population Component
Population (P. aa) in each region
adjusted employment. Specifically,
bb
PRE.aa = PM.aa * S M.bb * IM.aa.bb
is a function of residence-
where PRE .aa is a preliminary population estimate for region aa,
IM.aa.bb is the proportion of workers employed in region bb (M.bb)
E-2
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who live in region aa, and PM.aa
residence-adjusted employment in
estimate is forced to conform in
population by multiplying through
This yields final population (P.aa).
P.aa = PRE.aa * ADJ
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
is the ratio of population to
region aa. This preliminary
the aggregate to total state
by an adjustment factor (ADJ).
Since the 1970 census division boundaries were changed in 1980
and were renamed census areas, the population by 1980 census areas
(PCEN .cc) is calculated from the estimates of population by 1970
census divisions (P.aa) as follows:
a a
PCEN.cc = S P.aa * PC.cc.aa
where PC.cc.aa is the proportion of population in region aa 0970
census division) allocated to region cc (1980 census area).
From these regional population figures, a preliminary value for
the number of households (HPRE.cc) can be calculated as follows:
HPRE.cc = (PCEN.cc -PGQ.cc)/HHSZ.cc
where PGQ.cc is population in group quarters and HHSZ.cc is average
household size in region cc. The preliminary figure is adjusted
using the ratio ADJHH for consistency with the state simulation
result (HHCEN.cc). A final product of the model is a set of
household figures based upon the 1970 census divisions using the
same allocation factors as employed in allocating population (HH.aa).
E-3
E-4
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E.2 Flow Diagram
Flow uiagram
E.2 MAP AegionalizatJon Model
Scenario Generator
and
State Model
Basic and Govt.
Employment
Total Employment
by Place of Work
Employment
Total
Employment
in
Other
Regions
E-5
"Consistency Jdjustment Joplied to conforn·
w1th state model simulation result.
E-6
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E.3. Model Inputs
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Provided by the Scenario Generator
Baa Portion of basic employment ~n region aa (mining
[EMP9], exogenous construction [EMCNX], exogenous
manufacturing [EMMX], exogenous transportation [EMT9X],
agriculture [EMAGRI], fishing [EMFISH])
Gaa Portion of government employment in region aa (federal
civilian and military [EMGC and EMGM])
Provided by MAP State Economic Model
HH Households
POP Population
Provided by the Program for Running the Model*
B.aa
BETA
G.aa
Total basic employment in region aa (EMP9, EMM9,
EMCN, EMA9, EMT9X, EMPRO, EMTOUR)
Support employment/total employment ((EM99-EMA9-
EMM9-EMCN-EMP9-EMT9X-EMPRO-EMGA-EMGF-EMTOUR)/EM99)
Government employment in region aa (EMGC, EMGM,
EMGS, EMGL)
*The program used to run the regionalization model converts the basic
sector employment from the scenario generator, utilizing output from the
MAP state economic model, into the basic sector employment definition
used in the regionalization model.
E-7
E-8
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May 1983
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Variables
M.aa
G.aa
B.aa
S.aa
s.aa.bb
P.aa
PCEN.cc
HH.aa
HHCEN.cc
Parameters
A. aa. bb
May 1983
E.4. Variable and Parameter Names
Total employment, region aa (EM99)
Government employment, region aa (EMGC, EMGM, EMGS, EMGL)
Basic employment, region aa (EMP9, EMCN, EMM9, EMA9, EMTOUR,
EMT9X, EMPRO)
Support employment, region aa (M.aa -G.aa -B.aa)
Support employment in region aa caused by economic activity
in region bb
Populationa, region aa
Population, region cc
Households, region aa
Householdsb, region cc
Proportion of support sector employment stimulated by
increase in total employment in region bb which occurs 1.n
region aa
IM.aa.bb Percent of workers employed 1.n region bb who live in
region aa
PM.aa Ratio of population to residence-adjusted employment in
region aa
HHSZ.cc Average household size 1.n 1980 in Census Division cc
PGQ.cc Population 1.n group quarters in 1980 in Census Division cc
PC.cc.aa Proportion of population in region aa (1970 Census division
definiton) allocated to region cc (1980 Census area
definition)
aA preliminary population, PRE.aa, 1.s calculated for internal use.
bA preliminary household, HPRE.cc, 1.s calculated for internal use.
E-9
Suffixes
aa Labor Market Areas--1970 Census Divisions
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Aleutian Islands
Anchorage
Angoon
Barrow-North Slope
Bethel
Bristol Bay
Bristol Bay Borough
Cordova-McCarthy
Fairbanks
Haines
Juneau
Kenai-Cook Inlet
Ketchikan
Kobuk
Kodiak
Kuskokwim
Matanuska/Susitna
Nome
Outer Ketchikan
Prince of Wales
Seward
Sitka
Skagway/Yakutat
Southeast Fairbanks
Upper Yukon
Valdez/Chitina/Whittier
2 7 Wade Hampton
28 Wrangell/Petersburg
2 9 Yukon/Koyukuk
ST
RB
AG
AM
NR
FG
IR
State
Railbelt = 2 + 9 + 12 + 17 + 21 +
Greater Anchorage 2 + 12 + 17 +
Anchorage + MatSu 2 + 17
Non-Railbelt = ST -RB
Greater Fairbanks = 9 + 24
Intertied Railbelt = RB -26
*Aggregated into area indicated.
E-10
24
21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Use in Model
Yes *
X
X
11
X
X
x (includes 7)
6
X
X
11
X (includes 3, 10,
13, 19, 2 0, 22,
23, 28)
X
11
X
X
X
X
X
11
11
X
11
11
X
X
X
X
11
X
+ 26
-
-
~
I
-
-
-
-
~
I
r
cc --1980 Census Areas
01
02
03
04
OS
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
North Slope
Kobuk
Nome
Yukon/Koyukuk
Fairbanks
Southeast Fairbanks
Wade Hampton
Bethel
Dillingham
Bristol Bay Borough
Aleutian Islands
Matanuska/Susitna
Anchorage
Kenai Peninsula
Kodiak
Valdez/Cordova
Skagway/Yakutat/Angoon
Haines
Juneau
Sitka
Wrangell/Petersburg
Prince of Wales/Outer Ketchikan
Ketchikan Borough
*Aggregated into area indicated.
E-ll
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Used in Model
Yes *
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
10
x (includes 09)
X
X
X
X
X
X
19
19
x (includes 17,
18' 2 0 ' 21 ' 2 2 '
2 3)
19
19
19
19
E-12
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
'~
-I
-
~.
-
....
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
HHSZ.cc
PGQ. cc
E.5. Parameter Values
Average Household Size
Population in Group Quarters
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
These parameters are calculated from the 1980 census as shown in
Table E.l.
1980 Census Area
(Aggregated as
Required by Model)
1 North Slope
2 Kobuk
3 Nome
4 Yukon/Koyukuk
5 Fairbanks
6 Southeast Fairbanks
7 Wade Hampton
8 Bethel
9 Di llinghama
10 Bristol Bay Borough
11 Aleutian Islands
12 Matanuska/Susitna
13 Anchorage
14 Kenai Peninsula
15 Kodiak
16 Valdez/Cordova
TABLE E.l.
Average
Household Size
(HHSZ.cc)
3.91
4.2
3.7
3.18
2.78
3.16
4.87
4.05
0
3.68
17 Sk~gway/Yakutat/Angoonb
18 Ha1nesb
3.2 7
3.06
2.80
2.92
3.06
2.84
0
0
2.89
0
19 Juneau
2 0 Sitkab
21 Wrangell/Petersburgb
22 Prince of Wales/
Outer Ketchikanb
2 3 Ke tchikanb
0
0
0
aAggregated with Bristol Bay Borough
bAggregated with Juneau
SOURCE: 1980 Census of Population
E-13
Population in
Group Quarters
(PGQ.cc)
(thousands)
.365
.048
.088
.614
3.339
.3 99
.055
.ll8
0
.339
2.548
.324
4.848
.32
.681
.702
0
0
1.418
0
0
0
0
PM.aa
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Ratio of Population to Residence-Adjusted Employment
This parameter l.S calculated using the most recent population
and employment estimates of the Department of Labor (see Table
E.2). The 1981 population estimate is adjusted to a labor-market
basis using PC.cc.aa to be consistent with employment data by labor
markets. Employment by place of residence is estimated using the
interregional residence adjustment matrix, IM.aa.bb, applied to an
estimated 1981 regional distribution of employment. This estimate
is determined by running the regionalization model to allocate
regionally the estimated 1981 statewide employment. The simplest
way to accomplish this is to run the model once and then calibrate
PM.aa to hit the correct population figure.
E-14
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-
-
-
....
-
-
-
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, .....
!
,,...,.,
-I
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.2. CALCULATION OF POPULATION/RESIDENT
EMPLOJM_ENT RATIO (PM. aa)
Estimated Residence-Census Population
Adjusted Average Census per Avg. Annual
Annual Employment Population Employed Resident
Labor Market Area 1981 1981 (PM.aa)
1 Aleutian Islands 2.556 8.624 3.374
2 Anchorage 87.458 180.740 2.066
4 Barrow/North Slopel .591 7.098 7.1
5 Bethel 2.983 9.57 9 3.211
6 Bristol Bay* 1.920 5. 716 2.977
8 Cordova/McCarthy .903 2.374 2.62 9
9 Fairbanks 26.047 58.313 2.2 39
11 Juneau** 2 7.495 55.985 2.036
12 Kodiak/Cook Inlet 8.984 23.574 2.624
14 Kobuk 1.586 4.960 3.12 7
15 Kodiak 5.461 9. 728 1. 782
16 Kuskokwim .468 2.57 7 5.506
17 Matanuska-Susitna 6.183 19. 12 3 3.093
18 Nome 1.910 7.565 3.961
21 Seward • 7 57 2.947 3.893
24 Southeast Fairbanks 1.472 5. 734 3.895
25 Upper Yukon .485 1.229 3.534
26 Valdez/Chitina/
Whittier 3.023 6.4 71 2.141
27 Wade Hampton 1.077 4. 726 4.388
29 Yukon/Koyukuk 1.665 5.122 3.076
ST Statewide 183.024 422.185 2.307
lThe 1980 population of 4.199 was used for Barrow due to a change 1.n
the definition of residence in 1982.
*Includes 7
**Includes 3, 10, 13, 19, 20, 22, 23, 28
E-15
A.aa.bb
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Interregional Employment Interaction Matrix
Regional employment for 1979 was available from the Alaska
Department of Labor publications, specifically Statistical Quarterly
and Alaska Economic Trends. The breakdown of such employment by
basic, government, and support sectors is shown in Table E .3 for
1979.
Since the major concern of the regional model is to capture the
effect of support sector demands which are supplied in regions other
than the one giving rise to such demands, rather than to examine the
effects of differential support demands across regions, it seems
plausible, or at least not overly restrictive, to impose the
condition that the ratio of support employment generated by a unit
of basic employment is the same wherever the basic employment
occurs. The difference between regions, then, is solely the
difference ~n the locations from which these demands will be
supplied.
This assumption has the obvious disadvantage that it neglects
real interregional differences in demand for support sector
services. However, it also has several advantages which may more
than compensate for this shortcoming. Most obviously, it reduces
our estimation problem by n-1 parameters. More importantly, it is
extremely valuable as a tool for maintaining consistency with the
statewide MAP model, in both a static and a dynamic sense.
Currently, a unit of basic sector employment in the state model has
the same static employment impact regardless of its location in the
state. Regionally varying support/basic ratios would produce
differing total statewide static impacts by location, thus being
inconsistent with the state model. Furthermore, the introduction of
BETA (the ratio of support to total employment from the state model)
exogenously provides a valuable tool for mainta~n~ng dynamic
consistency between the models. By letting BETA vary with time so
as to reflect the corresponding state model simulation, we both
force the matrix (A.aa.bb) to vary over time to reflect the same
degree of structural change represented by the state model and force
the employment totals to replicate the statewide results.
The major reason that not all support sector requirements are
supplied internally within the region ~s that it would be more
costly to do so than to secure those services from a different
region. It is only natural, then, that the cost of supply should be
the major determining factor in deciding to which other regions to
allocate the supply. Such costs as transportation, communication,
etc. are generally expected to increase with distance and to
decrease with the size of the support sector source for the region.
We hypothesize that the location of support services is chosen in
such a way as to minimize the costs of providing the required
services observed in region bb from each of the sources of such
supply aa. Cost between locations is an increasing function of
distance and an inverse function of employment ~n the supplying
region.
E-16
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r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.3. EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION, 1979
Region
1 Aleutian Islands
2 Anchorage
4 Barrow/North Slope
5 Bethel
6 Bristol Bay*
8 Cordova/McCarthy
9 Fairbanks
11 Southeast Alaska**
12 Kenai/Cook Inlet
14 Kobuk
15 Kodiak
16 Kuskokwim
17 Matanuska-Susitna
18 Nome
21 Seward
24 Southeast Fairbanks
2 5 Upper Yukon
26 Valdez/Chitina/
Whittier
27 Wade Hampton
2 9 Yukon/Koyukuk
ST Statewide
377
45,404
594
1 '917
839
403
11,191
9,475
2,819
402
1,644
123
1,505
1,083
433
240
99
715
208
506
79,977
2,463
13' 82 8
3,467
420
1,778
1,005
3,584
9,284
3,564
114
3,631
13
560
298
709
149
25
678
236
807
46,613
lMining, manufacturing,
fisheries, and miscellaneous.
construe tion,
2Federal, state, and local government
Government2
(Gi)
3,2 64
34,009
1,514
1,360
1,197
344
12,801
11,081
1,481
935
2,051
435
1,345.
980
390
1,636
302
92 7
595
1,208
77,855
Total
(Mi)
6,104
93,241
5' 5 75
3,697
3,814
1,752
27,576
2 9,840
7,864
1,451
7,326
571
3,410
2,361
1,532
2,025
426
2,320
1,039
2,521
204,445
agriculture-forestry-
*Includes Bristol Bay and Bristol Bay Borough Census Divisions
**Includes the following Census Divisions: Angoon, Haines, Juneau,
Ketchikan, Outer Ketchikan, Prince of Wales, Sitka, Skagway-Yakutat,
and Wrangell-Petersburg.
SOURCE: Alaska Economic Projections for Electricity Requirements
for the Railbelt, ISER, 1981.
E-17
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The A.aa.bb matrix was estimated by a linear programming routine
for the problem of minimizing the cost of service delivery using
1979 data. It is presented in Table E.4. The solution, A.aa.bb,
comprises a matrix which we call the interregional employment
interaction matrix. Each entry represents the share of support
requirements for region bb supplied from region aa. Each of the
columns, therefore, must sum to unity. Thus, a quick glance down
each column provides a subjective test of the plausibility of the
matrix. ! priori, one would expect nonzero entries in all of the
diagonal elements and along the rows of the regional support centers
(Bethel, Fairbanks, Nome) and probably along the entire row
corresponding to Anchorage, which is a statewide support center.
The pattern is as would have been expected. All diagonal terms are
nonzero, with the larger support centers being self-sufficient
vis-a-vis the rest of the state (having diagonal entries of 1).
Anchorage and Fairbanks appear to be the only significant support
centers, with Anchorage supplying most regions and Fairbanks
supplying Kuskokwim, Upper Yukon, and Yukon/Koyukuk. Two local
support centers emerge, with Bethe 1 supporting Wade Hamption and
Nome supporting Kobuk.
A complete description of the methodology used to derive this
matrix appears in Alaska Economic Projections for Estimating
Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt, ISER.
E-18
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-
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Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
I""' TABLE E.4. INTERREGIONAL EMPLOYMENT INTERACTION MATRIX (A.aa.bb)
!""" Demand Region
Supply Region 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
,....
01 A 1 eu t i an I s 1 and s • 16
F" 02 Anchorage .84 1. .73 .44 .41 • 19 .08 .01 .43 .28 .7 .21 .25
04 Barrow .27
05 Bethel 1. .49
,-06 Bristol Bay .56
08 Cordova/McCarthy .59
09 Fairbanks 1. .45 .41 .24
11 Sou the as t A 1 ask a .81
12 Kenai/Cook Inlet .92
r-
14 Kobuk .71
-15 Kodiak .57
I
i
! 16 Kuskokwim .55
17 Matanuska/Susitna 1.
18 Nome .28 1.
21 Seward .72
24 S.E. Fairbanks .3
25 Upper Yukon .59
26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier .79
I""
27 Wade Hampton .51
29 Yukon/Koyukuk .51
!"""
E-19
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
IM.aa.bb Interregional Residence Adjustment Matrix
The interregional residence adjustment matrix calculates the
place of residence of workers employed in Alaska. It is an expanded
and refined version of the Interregional Wage and Employee Flow
Matrix constructed for the ec.onometric model of Anchorage (see
Municipality of Anchorage: Economic Modeling Project, ISER, 1982,
p. II-24).
Four sources of information are used to construct the matrix.
The first 1.s the U.S. Census data on commuting which provides
information on the proportion of residents in a region who are
employed outside the region. The second is an analysis of tax
returns by Alaskan places which, when compared to wages and salaries
earned by place of work, provides a comparison of wages earned by
workers in a region and workers living in a region. The third is
the residency adjustment figures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis
which provides another estimate of the ratio of wage and salary
income earned in a region to resident wage and salary income. The
fourth 1.s the preliminary results of a special census for
oi 1-related work sites on Alaska's North Slope conducted by the
Alaska Department of Labor which reports usual place of residence of
oil field employees. This census provided the basis for the column
vector of the matrix for Barrow, after adjustment for non-oil-
related employment on the North Slope.
Filling in the other cells of the matrix involved a judgmental
approach because the available data left too ~any degrees of freedom
to specify values for the 360 remaining cells.
The first step was calculation of the diagonal elements--the
proportion of employment in each region done by residents of the
region. This involved the following equation:
IM = (1-%) * WR .aa.aa
WP
where % is the proportion of workers reporting employment outside
their census area of residence.in 1980 (1980 Census Table 36, STF3);
WR is wages reported by residents on their 1978 income tax returns
(Federal Income Taxpayer Profile 1978, Alaska Department of Revenue,
1981); and WP is wages and salaries paid in 1978 by labor market
area (Statistical Quarterly, Alaska Department of Labor). The
resulting parameter is net of both outflows of wages by nonresidents
and inflows of wages by commuting residents. Table E .5 shows the
ratio of wages reported to wages paid in 1978 and demonstrates a
considerable amount of job commuting, particularly in certain census
divisions.
E-20
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.~
-'
-
-
-
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.5. WAGES PAID BY LOCATION AND WAGES EARNED
BY RESIDENTS IN 1978
Census Division
Matanuska-Susitna
Kobuk
Skagway/Yakutat
Haines
Kenai/Cook Inlet
Upper Yukon
Valdez/Chitina/
Whittier
Wade Hampton
Seward
Bethel
Juneau
Anchorage
Fairbanks
Ketchikan
Nome
Angoon
Wrangell/Petersburg
Kuskokwim
Sitka
Southeast Fairbanks
Bristol Bay
Outer Ketchikan
Kodiak
Yukon/Koyukuk
Cordova/McCarthy
Prince of Wales
Bristol Bay Br.
Aleutian Islands
Barrow/North Slope
(1)
Wage sa
Paid
52.5
15.5
12.5
6.8
147.3
5.5
40.7
8.7
20.2
36.0
191.9
1,737.3
532.6
102.6
32.6
2.4
41.0
8.8
73.1
26.1
17.8
8.4
86.7
54.4
21.8
14.7
13.9
85.3
237.3
Alaska 3,634.1
United States 1,102,062.0
(million $)
(2)
Wagesb
Reported
by
Residents
110.4
21.5
14.6
7.4
160.4
6.0
44.3
9.0
19.1
31.7
169.0
1,513.2
459.0
86.6
2 7.3
2.0
33.6
6.9
56.7
19.4
13.0
5.9
60.6
32.8
12.6
7.5
5.7
14.5
2 7.0
2,977.9
1,092,000.0
(2 )-( 1)
Net Inflo
(Outflo)
58.2
6.0
2.1
0.6
13.1
0.5
3.6
0.3
(1.1)
(4.3)
(22.9)
(224.1)
(73.6)
(16.0)
(5.3)
(0.4)
(7 .4)
(1.9)
( 16.4)
( 6. 7)
(4.8)
( 2. 5)
(26.1)
(21.6)
( 9.2)
(7 .2)
(8.2)
(70.8)
(210.3)
(656.2)
(10, 062.0)
(3)/(1)
Wages
Reported
as Percent
of Wages Paid
211
139
117
110
109
109
109
103
95
88
88
87
86
84
84
83
82
79
78
74
73
70
70
60
58
51
41
17
11
82
99
au.s. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
bAlaska Department of Revenue, Federal Income Taxpayers Profile
1978, December 1981.
E-21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Off-diagonal elements are best understood by thinking of the
columns where the elements in a particular column represent the
percentage of employees working in the location represented by that
column who live in each census area. To determine these elements,
three assumptions are made. First, Alaskan residents earn no wage
income outside of Alaska. Second, non-Alaskan residents can earn
wage income in Alaska. Third, based upon a general knowledge of the
state, certain elements can be assumed to be zero, thus reducing the
number of degrees of freedom for the problem considerably. The
matrix was then regionally aggregated into seven regions, and the
wage income earned by nonresidents in each region was allocated to
the other six and out of the state so that each column summed to one
and each row completely allocated all earned income. The resulting
parameters were then split into the twenty regions proportionately,
except in a few instances where judgment about local conditions
resulted in an adjustment. The full matrix is shown as Table E.6.
E-22
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-
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-
-
-
-Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABlE E.6. INTERREGIONAL RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT MATRIX (IM.aa.bb)
Place of Work
Place of Residence 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
01 Aleutian Islands .41
02 Anchorage .09 .86 .38 .09 .o 9 .o 2 .02 .02 .09 .02
04 Barrow .08
05 Bethel 0 .86 .02
!"""
06 Bristol Bay .5
08 Cordova/MeGa rthy .55
f""\. 09 Fairbanks • 16 .86 .05
11 Southeast A 1 ask a .01 .84
12 Kenai/
Cook In let .02 .o6 .a 2 .02 .97 .02
14 Kobuk .01
15 Kodiak .02 .02 .69 .o 2
16 Kuskokwim .78
17 Matanuska/
f""" Susitna .02 .02 .06 .02 .02 .o 1 .01 .01 .02 .01
I
18 Nome .o .79
21 Seward .so
24 S.E. Fairbanks ,...,. .01 .69
25 Upper Yukon .005
26 Valdez/Chitina/
Whittier .o 1
27 Wade Hampton
29 Yukon/Koyukuk .01 .61
!"""'
Total Residential* .56 .88 .7 8 .99 .65 .58 .86 .84 .74 .93 .79 .83 .75 .61
Out of A 1 ask a .44 • 12 .22 .01 .3 5 • 4 3 • 14 • 16 0 0 .26 .07 0 .21 • 17 .25 0 0 0 .3 9
,-*Components may not sum to total due to rounding.
E-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PC.cc.aa 1970 to 1980 Census Boundary Allocations
These allocations are based upon population by place from the 1980
Census.
PC.04.16 .5079
PC.04.25 .94 75
PC.06.25 .0525
PC.08.16 .4921
SOURCE: 1980 Census, Population data by place
E-24
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-'
r
E.6. Model Validation
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The regionalization model has been initialized on 1981
population. The year 1981 is considered to be less affected by the
temporary effects of the business cycle and the permanent fund
dividend distribution program than 1982.
Because accurate historical data on interregional commuter
patterns and a complete historical data set on basic employment by
region are not available, it is not possible to do a historical
simulation using the regionalization model. It is possible to
compare the historical trends in the regional distribution of
employment and population with the projections.
Historically, the proportion of state employment occurring in
the railbel t has remained remarkably constant (Table E. 7). Aside
from the years of peak construction of the oil pipeline, the
proportion has ranged between 67.1 and 68.6 percent since 1965. On
the other hand, there has been an increasing concentration of
population in the railbelt, growing from 62.1 percent of the total
in 1960 to 68.9 percent in l980 (Table E.8).
The differentially more rapid population growth in the railbelt
(and conversely the differentially slower population growth outside
of the railbelt) is an interesting phenomenon explained partially by
the nature of the labor market. The demand for labor has been
increasing at a rapid pace historically throughout the state, as
reflected by the employment data. The growth in population through
in-migration augments the supply of labor to clear the labor
market. Outside of the railbelt, rates of unemployment have
historically been higher, indicating that employment can increase
without requ1r1ng population increase through in-migration. In
March 1982, for example, the unemployment rates for the railbelt and
nonrailbelt were 10.8 and 13.7 pecent, respectively.
The uncertainty surrounding projections of the regional
distribution of population is not so much where the employment
opportun1 t1es are located but where those workers who have the
skills necessary to do those jobs choose to live. The assumption
reflected in the structure of the regionalization model is that
there will be a continuation of the trend in concentration of
population in the railbelt but that the moderation of the growth
rate in population through in-migration will slow this trend.
E-25
Matanuska-
Anchorage Susitna
M.02 M. 17
Historical
1965 47.8 1.2
1966 48.2 1.2
1967 49.3 1 .2
1968 50.0 1. 1
1969 54.6 1 • 1
1970 58.0 1.2
1971 60.6 1.5
1972 63.3 1 .6
1973 65.5 1.7
1974 7 3.3 1 .9
1975 83.8 2.1
1976 86.7 2.4
1977 91.7 2.7
1978 90.6 3.1
1979 91.3 3.3
Projection
1981 99.3 3.4
1990 125.1 4.2
2000 140.3 4.4
2010 168.6 5.1
TABLE E.7. EMPLOYMENT
(thousand)
Cook Inlet Southeast
(Includes Seward) Fairbanks Fairbanks
M. 12 + M.21 M.09 M.24
3.3 21.8
4.1 21.8
5.3 21.6
6.1 22.1
5.6 24.0
5 .o 24.3
5.0 23.7
5.1 23.4
5.4 22.6
5.8 26.5
7.5 37 .o
7.9 37 .o
8.6 31.9
7.8 29.4
8. 1 29.3
9.3 31.2
12.5 36.8
12.6 40.2
14.6 4 7 .o
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Rai1be1t State
M.I R % of M.ST
Total
74.1 67.7 109.5
75.3 67.7 111.3
77.4 67.3 115.0
79.3 67.7 117.2
85.3 68. 1 125.3
88.5 68.5 129.2
90.8 68.4 132.7
93.4 68.6 136.1
95.2 67.7 140.7
107.5 68.0 158.2
130.4 67.1 194.3
134.0 66.6 201.2
134.9 70.0 192.6
130.9 68.4 191.5
132.0 68.2 193.7
143.2 65.5 218.5
178.6 64.3 277.6
197.5 65.8 300. 1
235.4 67.9 346.7
HISTORICAL DATA SOURCE: ISER data base; employment includes active-duty military and reservists
but not proprietors.
PROJECTION DATA SOURCE: Projection HER.9; employment includes proprietors.
E-26
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-
-
"""'~
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-
-,
-'
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-
-
-
-
E-27
E-28
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-I
.... :
-\
A83RUNCD
E.7. Programs for Model Use
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
This MACRO takes output from a simulation using the
state economic model and inputs provided by the
scenario generator on basic and government sector
employment by census division and runs the
regionalization model.
The definition of basic sector plus government
employment in the regionalization model includes the
following categories of employment:
EMP9
EMM9
EMCN
EMA9
EMT9X
EMPRO
EMTOUR
EMGA
EMGF
Mining
Total Manufacturing
Total Construction
Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries
Exogenous Transportation
Proprietor Employment
Tourism Employment
State and Local
Federal
In the state model, however, EMTOUR, EMGA, and
portions of EMA9, EMM9, EMCN, and EMPRO ar~
endogenous and thus not provided on a regional basis
from the scenario generator. This program includes
a procedure for converting the endogenous portions
of these industries to exogenous and regionalizing
them.
Specifically, the following variables are
regionalized and added to Baa to derive B.aa:
EMCNl Endogenous Construction
EMA9-EMAGR1-EMAFISH Forestry and Nonclassifiable
EMPROl Endogenous Proprietor Employment
EMTOUR Tourism Employment
EMMO Endogenous Manufacturing
In addition, the following variable is regionalized
and added to Gaa to derive G.aa:
EMGA State and Local Government Employment
The parameters used in the regional allocation of
these variables are calculated using the 1979
regional distribution of employment. The values
used are shown in the accompanying table (Table E.9).
E-29
Region
Number
a a
1
2
4
5
6
8
9
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
21
24
25
26
27
29
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
~p Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.9. PARAMETER VALUES USED IN REGIONAL ALLOCATION
OF CERTAIN EXOGENOUS VARIABLES*
State and
Endogenous Local
Construction Forestry Proprietors Tourism Government
.01 0 .02 0 .01
.57 .45 .46 .33 .34
.03 0 0 0 .03
.01 0 .01 0 .03
.01 0 .01 0 .02
0 0 .01 .01 .01
• 16 .2 7 .11 .13 .13
.10 .04 .23 .30 .22
.04 • 17 .05 .07 .04
0 0 0 0 .02
.01 .02 .04 .04 .02
0 0 0 0 .01
.02 .02 .02 • 1 .03
0 .02 .01 0 .02
0 0 .01 0 .01
0 0 .01 0 .01
0 0 0 0 .01
.01 0 .01 .ll .02
0 0 0 0 .01
.01 .01 0 0 .01
*May not sum to 1 due to rounding error.
E-30
-
~
"""""'
JII1!0!I
1'!11!,
-,
.-,
-
-
T
rr
I
I
.[
u
1'1"' I
I
Variable
ADHOIS
ADM REA
ADHSO
AEX
AFTOT
AGI
AHG
ANCSA
APPENDIX F
ISER MAP AlASKA ECOfOUC HODEL:
VARIABLE AND PARAMETER DICTIONARY
Definition; Units
average daily membership in district schools;. thousand
average da i 1 y membership i n REAA schools; thousand
average daily membership in district and REAA schools;
thousand
Alaskan personal incane tax ex~tions; million $
total armed forces personnel in 1980
gross income reported on Alaskan state personal
income tax returns; million$
Alaskan highway gasoline consumption per vehicle;
gallons
payment to Alaska Natives by federal and state
government under Alaska Native Claims Settlement
Act; million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP DoclJI'IE!nta t ion
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADE, Annual Report
ADE, Annual Report
ADE, Annual Report
COnstructed from IRS, Statistics
of Income, ADL, Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S. Census
Alaska Air Command and Kruse,
Design and Implementation of
Alaska, 1980 Reapportionment
Data COllection Effort
COnstructed from IRS, Statistics
of Income, AOL, Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S. Census
COnstructed from Alaska Native
Land Claims, Arnold and BEA
personal income data
a No entry indicates either a constructed variable or no historical data available.
Data Source Abbreviations:
ADA -Alaska Department of Administration
ADC -Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development
ADCR -Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs
ADE -Alaska Department of Education
AOL -Alaska Department of Labor
AOPW -Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities
ADR -Alaska Department of Revenue
BEA -u.s. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
BOC -u.s. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census
. IRS -U.S. Department of Treasury, Internal Revenue Service
Variable
ATD
ATI
ATI.TT
ATT
BADD
BAL99
BAL991
BALCAB
BALCABBM
BALCAP84
Definition; Units
Alaska personal income tax deductions; million $
Alaska state personal income tax taxable income;
mill ion $
Alaska state taxable personal income per
taxpayer; thousand $
Alaska state personal income tax returns -
individual plus joint returns; thousand
birth adjustment factor to account for birth of
Native children to non-Native women
combined state fund balances; million $
initial combined state'fund balances;
mill ion $
state general fund revenues minus general fund
expenditures; million$
unrestricted general fund revenues minus
unrestricted general fund expenditures
net additions to the state capital stock put
in place after 1983, inflated to current
dollar value; million$
BALDF development fund balance; million$
BALDFl
BALGF
BALGFl
BALGFCP
initial state development fund (hypothetical)
balance; million $
state general fund balance (available for
appropriations); million$
initial state general fund balance; million $
positive change in general fund balance from year to
year (if change negative, this takes zero value);
million $
F-2
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data sourcea
Constructed from IRS, Statistics
of Income, ADL Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S. Census
Constructed from IRS, Statistics
of Income, ADL Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S. Census
constructed from IRS Statistics
of Income and ADL Statistical
Quarterly
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
-
-
-
-
"1
I
,.
i -'-
r
..,...
, I
l"f"
'I
I
I
:
Variable
BALGFP
BALLANDS
BALOCAL
BALPF
BALPFl
BASEMCNX
BASEPOP
BAS EX CAP
BASEXGF
BASEXOPS
BASPDRPI
BCRUDE
BIU
Definition; Units
state general fund balance if positive; if state
general fund balance negative, then zero; million $
state plus local government current account balance;
million $
local government revenues minus nondebt financed
expenditures; million$
permanent fund balance; million $
initial state permanent fund balance;
million$
a base case vector of EMCNX values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of POP values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of EXCAP values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
base case expenditure value to be placed in
impact run to calculate difference in state
expendi tures i n rea 1 per cap i ta tenns
a base case vector of EXOPS values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
base case value of RPI to be input into
impact run to calculate difference in state
expenditures in real per capita tenns
Alaska crude civilian birth rate
the Basic Instructional Unit for School
Foundation distribution program; thousand $
BIUl initial value of Basic Instructional Unit for
School Foundation distribution program; thousand $
BL Alaska business licenses issued; thousand
F-3
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADE. Annua 1 Report
ADR, unpublished data
Variable
BTHTOT
Definition; Units
total Alaska civilian non-Native births to
civilian population
BTOT total Alaska civilian births; thousand
C*** stochastic coefficient
CBR Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate
CDR Alaska crude civilian non-Native death rate
CEabN
CHHij
CNNPij
CNNTOT
COLA
CPGQij
Cij
0.80DEC6
DCRUDE
OEBTP82
DELEMP
OF.***
proportion of Native ~loyment in sector ab
Alaska households headed by civilian non-
Native persons in cohort ij
Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
total Alaska civilian non-Native population
federal cost of living adjustment for Alaska
state personal incane tax purposes; mill ion $
fraction of civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters
Alaska civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij before migration
d~ variable with value of 1 for year or
period of years indicated; units
d~ variable with value of one in 1980
tapering off to zero in 6 years, reflecting
the fact that Alaskan wage rates are "sticky
downward"
Alaska crude civilian death rate
sun of general obligation bonded debt
incurred by the state after 1982; million $
annual change in civilian ~loyment (EM96);
thousand
variable deflated to 1982 dollars (PORPIBAS is base
year index);
F-4
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
-
MAP Docunentation ~
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
1970 U.S. Census, Alaska public
use safl1)1es
Constructed from ADL Statistical
Quarterly and PCOLART
BOC, 1980 Census Tape STF2B
-
IT DPIRES
' .r!
"'' I
\ '~ DTHINF
fT
I I
DTHTOT
DTOT
EL99
rr ELBD
I
ELED
'T ELEDl ; I
:J
ELEDCP
ELNEDl
~ ELPERS
,,
EM.EMCN
EM.EMG9
rr
r I
'; EM.EMGA
,Pr"'
\!
(!
I
,_
i
Definition; Units
cumulative discounted value of petroleum
revenues received fran 1982; million 1982 $ ~
Alaska disposable personal incane; million $
Alaska disposable personal income plus
residency adjustment; million $
total nonfederal, nonstate personal incane
tax payments paid out of Alaskan personal
income for purposes of calculating disposable
personal income; million$
Alaska infant civilian non-Native deaths
total Alaska civilian non-Native deaths
total Alaska civilian deaths
total local government expenditures; million$
local government debt service; million$
local government education expenditures; million $
local government education expenditures
fran own sources; mi 11 ion $
local government education expenditures for
capital outlays; million$
local gavernment non-education expenditures
net of debt service; million$
local government personal services expenditures;
million $
ratio of construction to total employment
ratio of total government to total employment
ratio of state and local government to total
employment
F-5
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BEA disposable personal income.
data '& ADA, Annual Financial
Report
BEA di sposab 1 e persona 1 i ncane
data & ADA, Annual Financial
~
BEA, disposable personal income
data
BOC, Governmental Finances
BOC, Governmental Finances
Constructed fran ADA, Executive
Budget and BOC, State Government
Finances
BOC, Governmental Finances
BOC, Governmental Finances
BOC, Governmental Finances
Variable
EM.EHGF
EM.EI1NR
EM.EHNS
EM.EMP9
EM.EMSP
EH.EMSUP
EM.EMTCU
EH96
EH97
Definition; Units
ratio of federal government to total employment
ratio of total minus support type {SP),
government, construction, and petroleum
employment to total employment
ratio of total minus support type (SP) and
government to total employment
ratio of mining to total employment
ratio of service type (T9, CM, PU, 09, Fl, 59)
to total employment
ratio of trade, finance, and service to total
employment
ratio of transport, communication, and public
utilities to total employment
total wage and salary plus proprietor employment;
thousand
nonagricultural wage & salary employment;
thousand
EH98 wage and salary and military employment; thousand
EH99
EMAFISH
EHAGRI
total wage and salary, nonwage and salary
(proprietor), and military employment; thousand
wage and salary component of fish harvesting
employment; thousand
wage and salary component of agriculture
employment; thousand
EMCNl construction employment net of exogenous
construction employment; thousand
EMCNRT ratio of premium wage construction employment
to EM98 net of premium wage construction
employment. Brployed as a measure of labor
market "tightness"; percent
EMCNX exogenous construction employment; thousand
F-6
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
14ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOL, Alaska labor Force
Estimates and Statistical
Quarterly
AOL, Statistical Quarterly
-·
-
-
·~
'i
,.,...
I, 'I
'I ':
T
Variable
EI1CNX1
E11CNX2
Ef1Cll
Ef1DR
EHI:M
EHDRNT
EHDTOOR
Ef1FISH
Definition; Units
"enclave" high (premiun) wage exogenous
construction employment; thousand
non-"enclave" low (normal) wage exogenous
construction employment; thousand
communications plus public utilities
employment; thousand
employment in retai 1 trade; thousand
employment in wholesale trade; thousand
employment in retail trade net .of tourism;
thousand
tourism employment in trade sector; thousand
fish harvesting employment; thousand
EI1G9 federal, state, and local goverrvnent
employment; thousand
EMGA state and local goverrvnent employment; thousand
Ef1GC federal civilian employment; thousand
Ef1GF federal civilian and military employment; thousand
Ef1Gl local goverrvnent employment; thousand
Ef1GM military employment; thousand
Ef1GS state goverrvnent employment; thousand
EMM91 manufacturing employment net of new large
project employment (Ef1f1Xl); thousand
EHMO
Ef1HX
Ef1f1Xl
employment in endogenous manufacturing;
thousand
exogenous manufacturing employment; thousand
high (premium) wage exogenous manufacturing
employment; thousand
F-7
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADL, unpublished
worksheets
ADL. Statistical Quarterly
ADL, Statist1cal Quarterly
Dnprovements to Specification
of the HAP Hodel
G. Rogers, Measuring the Socio-
economic Impact of Alaska's
Fisheries
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
ADL
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
Variable
EHMX2
Definition; Units
low wage exogenous manufacturing employment;
thousand
EHHA Native employment; thousand
EMNAT
EHHATX
EMNC
EMNNC
EMNR
EMNS
EMOCSX
EMP9
EHPRO
EHPROFIS
EMPROl
EHRATE
EHRATN
EHRATNl
Native employment obtained from the income
distribution model; thousand
Native employment obtained from the income
distribution rrodel; thousand
Native Corporation direct employment; thousand
total civilian non-Native employment; thousand
total employment minus support type (SP),
government, construction, and mining;
thousand
total employment minus support type (SP) and
government
sum of mining, exogenous construction,
exogenous transportation, and high wage
exogenous manufacturing employment;
thousand
mining employment; thousand
total proprietor employment; thousand
fish harvesting proprietor employment;
thousand
proprietor employment net of fish harvesting;
thousand
ratio of wage and salary plus proprietor
employment to civilian population
Native employment rate based on Native enrollments;
percent
interim calculation of Native employment rate;
percent
F-8
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOl. Statistical Quarterly
.-
ADl, Statistical Quarterly
BEA employment data
DOl, Statistical Quarterly;
BEA employment data; and G. Rogers,
Measuring the Socioeconomic Impact
of Alaska's Fisheries
-
-
-
-
r'i"
' I
I
rT
, I
rr
, I
I~
i
M"'
'I ! I
I I
\T'
I
I
Variable
EMSSNT
EMS91
EMSB
EMSP
EMSTOOR
EMSUP
EMT91
EMT9X
Definition; Units
E!lll'lo~nt in support services (net of business,
tourism, and Native claims); thousand
service sector E!lll'lo~nt net of direct Native
Corporation E!lll'lo~nt; thousand
business service E!lll'lo~t; thousand
transport, communication, public utility, trade,
finance, and service emplo~nt; thousand
tourism emplo~nt in service sector; thousand
trade, finance, and service emplo~nt; thousand
transportation emplo~nt net of exogenous
employment; thousand
exogenous (large pipeline project-related)
transportation emplo~nt; thousand
EMTCU transport, communication, and public utility
emplo~nt; thousand
EMTNT emplo~nt in transportation net of tourism
and exogenous components; thousand
EM TOUR
EMTTOUR
EMX
EMab
EX.DSS
EX.NPET
· total tourism employment; thousand
transportation-related tourism employment;
thousand
extractive industries-related emplo~t
consisting of mining and exogenous
construction; thousand
employment by industry; ab::CH CN 09 FI PU
GS Gl M9 59 T9 A9 GM GC P9; thousand
ratio of debt service expenditures to
total state general fund expenditures
ratio of state "non-endowment" revenues to
total state general fund expenditures
F-9
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 '
Historical Data Sourcea
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
Variable
EX.NRP9
EX.PET
EX.R99S
EX.RP9S
EX.RSEN
EX.RSIN
EX.RVNT
Definition; Units
ratio of state nonpetroleum revenues to
total state general fund expenditures
ratio of "en<bllnent" type revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of general fund plus Penmanent Fund
revenues to total state general fund
expenditures
ratio of petroleum revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of endogenous revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of total fund earnings to total state
general fund expenditures
ratio of general fund revenues net of
permanent fund contributions to total state
general fund expenditures
EX99S total state government expenditures from
all funds--capital and operating; million$
EXANNU
EXANSAV
EXBPt.CAB
EXBM.END
EXBM.FO
EXBM.GRl
if EXRLOP8 is in effect in the state operating
expenditure equation. the base amount of the
annuity which adds to state operating
expenditures; $
amount of state government saving when using
fiscal rule option EXRLOP8; million $
ratio of general fund current account balance
(BALCABBM) to unrestricted general fund
expenditures
ratio of development fund withdrawals (EXDFWITH)
to unrestricted general fund expenditures
ratio of total fund balance (BAl99) to
unrestricted general fund expenditures
ratio of revenues net of petroleum (RSGFBM+EXPFCON-
EXPFBAK*RSIP-RP9S) to unrestricted general fund
expenditures
F-lO
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea -
-
-
Variable
EXBM.RV
EXBOND
EX BUD
EX CAP
EXCAPl
EXCAPFR
EXCAPIHP
EXCAPNEW
EXCAPOLD
EXCAPREP
EXCDS
EXCDS4
EXCDSNT
T
EXCPS
...
Definition; Units
ratio of general fund unrestricted revenues to
unrestricted general fund expenditures
proportion of capita 1 expenditures financed
by general obligation bonds and federal grants;
percent
state operating expenditures as defined in the
budget; million $
total state capital expenditures; million $
initial state capital expenditures; million $
capital expenditures for ferries--assumed to be
purchases out of state; million$
per capita impact state capital expenditures
used with fiscal rule EXRL4
new additions to state capital stock in a
given year; milHon $
state.spending to replace capital stock put
in place prior to 1984
capital expenditures necessary to replace
state capital stock which depreciates
each year; million$
state development operating expenditures
net of debt service; million$
initial model estimate of state development
operating expenditures net of debt service
before application of RATIOl; million$
deve lopme"t carponent of the state operating
budget net of transfers to local government;
mi 11 ion $
construction expenditures from state capital
project funds; million $
F-11
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADA,
Annual Financial Report
ADA, Executive Budget
ADPW unpublished data
Go 1 dsmi th and Mogford, The
Relationship Between the
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
and State and local Govern-
ment Expenditures
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Annual Financial Report
111"'!
Institute of Social and
Economic Research -,
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Variable Definition; Units Historical Data Sourcea
EXCPSFED portion of capital project fund revenues from ADA, Annual Financial R!eQrt
federal capital grants; million $
EXCPSGOB portion of capital project fund revenues fran ADA. Annual Financial ReeQrt
bond sales; million$ -
EXCPSHY highway construction expenditures out of state ADA, Annual Financial R!RQrt
capital project construction funds; million $
EXCPSHYl initial highway construction expenditures out,
of state capital project construction funds; ~
million$
EXCPSM portion of capital project fund revenues from ADA. Annual Financial ReQQrt
bond sales (used to calculate bond maturation}; -,
million$
EXCPSNH nonhighway construction expenditure out of ADA, Annual Financial R~rt
state capital project construction funds;
million $ -EXCPSNHl initial nonhighway construction expenditures
out of state capital project construction funds;
million$
EXDFl percent of state current account balance placed
into development fund (hypothetical); percent -EXDFCON development fund contribution; million $
EXDFPCNT percent of development fund earnings withdrawn; -percent
EXDFWITH development fund withdrawals; million $
~
EXDSS annual debt service pa~nt to service general ADA, Annual Financial Re~rt
obligation bonded debt of the state;
million $ -
EXDSSX annual debt service payment to service general ADA, Annual Financial ReQQrt
obligation bonds outstanding at beginning of ., simulation period; million$
EXEDS state education operating expenditures net ADA, Executive Bud~t
of debt service; million $ -
EXEDS4 state education operating expenditure net of debt
service before application of RATIOl; million$ -
F-12
""'!'
I !
r-
1 '
, ..
; I
T
Variable
EXEDSNT
EXEL 1
EXEL2
EXEL3
EXEL4
Definition; Units
state education operating expenditures net
of transfers to local government; million $
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to population
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to prices
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to real per capita personal income
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to personal income
EXELS elasticity of state expenditures to personal
income net of "enclave" ~loyment-related
income (PI3)
EXEL6 elasticity of state expenditures to population
net of "enclave" construction ~loyment
EXGF
EXGFBM
EXGFCAP
EXGFCHY
EXGFCHYl
EXGFCNH
EXGFCNHl
EXGFOPER
EXGGS
state general fund expenditures; million$
state general fund expenditures net of
expenditures from restricted revenues; million $
state general fund capital outlays--actual
disbursements; million$
state general fund capital expenditures for
highways; million $
initial state general fund capital expenditures
for highways; million $
state general fund capital expenditures nonhighways;
million$
initial state general fund capital expenditures
nonhighways; million$
state general fund operating expenditures; million $
state general government operating expenditures
net of debt service; million$
F-13
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP DociJilentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Repgrt
ADA, Executive Budget
Variable
EXGGS4
EXHES
EXHES4
EXHYCAP
EXINREC
EX JUS
EXJUS4
EX LIM
EXLIH82
EXLIMOK
EXNHYCP
EXNOPS
EXNRS
EXNRS4
EXOH84
Definition; Units
initial model estimate-of state general government
operating expenditures net of debt service before
application of RATIOl; million$
state health operating expenditures net of debt
service; million $
state health operating expenditures net of debt
service before application of RATIOl; million$
state capital expenditures for highways; million $
state government interagency receipts; million $
state administration of justice operating
expenditures net of debt service; million $
state administration of justice operating
expenditures net of debt service before
application of RATIOl; million$
state expenditures allowed by constitutionally
mandated spending linrit; million $
constitutionally mandated 1982 state spending
limit; million$
actual state expenditures which can be supported
by revenues and general fund balance under
constitutionally mandated spending limit; million$
state capital expenditures for nonhighway projects;
million $
state expenditures--total net of the operating
budget; million$
state natural resource operating expenditures
net of debt service; mi 11 ion $
state natural resource operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATIOl;
mi 11 ion $
annual operations and maintenance cost
associated with incremental state capital
stock put in place in 1984 and succeeding
·years; million$
F-14
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation -·
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Executive Budget -
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Executive Budget
-
-
"""
ADA, Executive Budget
-
...,.
Variable
EXOMCOST
fT
I '
EXONTR
, .... EXOPS
EXOPSl
rr I I
I'
EXOPSIMP
EXPFl
~
EXPFBAK
!"!""
EXPFCON
I"""
EXPFCONl -
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
"''"' ''
!
EXPFNEW
,_
i: i: EXPFREIN
Definition; Units
annual operations and maintenance cost of
incremental state capital stock (EXOH84)
as a percentage of original cost; percent
state operating expenditures net of local
goverrvnent transfers; million $
total state operating expenditures net of debt
service and University of Alaska nongeneral
fund assistance. It is the sum of the
nine functional categories; million$
initial total state operating expenditures
net of debt service and University of Alaska
nongeneral fund assistance. It is the sum of the
nine functional categories; million $
per capita impact state operation expenditure
used with fiscal rule EXRL4
percent contribution from available funds to
Permanent Fund; percent
percent of Permanent Fund earnings plowed back
into the Permanent Fund; percentage
total contributions to Permanent Fund.
including special appropriations and
reinvested earnings; million$
contributions to the Permanent Fund, not
including special appropriations; million$
special Permanent Fund contributions appropriated
from the general fund; million $
percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred
to general fund which are distributed to
individuals; percent
constitutionally mandated Permanent Fund con-
tributions from petroleum revenues; million$
reinvested Permanent Fund earnings; million$
F-15
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Docll!lentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
Goldsmith and 11ogford, The
Relationship Between the
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
and State and Local Goverrvnent
Expenditures
ADR. Revenue Sources
Vadable
EXPPS
EXPPS4
EXPR99
EXPRCDS
EXPREDSl
EXPRGGS
EXPRHES
EXPRJUS
EXPRNRS
EXPRPER
EXPRPPS
EXPRSSS
EXPRTRS
EXPRUA
state public protection operating expenditures
net of debt service; million $
state public protection operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATIOl;
million $
total state personnel expenditures; million $
state personnel expenditures for development;
million$
state personnel expenditures for education
net of University of Alaska; million$
state personnel expenditures for general
government; million$
state personnel expenditures for health; million $
state personnel expenditures for administration
of justice; million $
state personnel expenditures for natural resources;
million $
adjustment to state personnel expenditures
data for consistency with state government
~lo~nt data; percent
state personnel expenditures for public protection;
million $
state personnel expenditures for social services;
million $
state personnel expenditures for transportation;
mill ion $
wages and salaries of University of Alaska;
million$
EXRLl policy switch which, if set at 1, detenmines state
operating expenditure growth based primarily upon
aggregate demand;
F-16
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget I
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
constructed from University of
Alaska records and AOL data
-
-
-
-
-
~ I
I
, I
!"I"'
:I
',I
"'"' II
11
I
t"i
I
Variable
EXRL2
EXRL3
EXRL4
EXRL40P
EXRLS
EXRLOP6
EXRLOP7
EXRLOP8
EXRP84
EXSAVS
EXSAVX
EXSPCAP
Definition; Units
policy switch which, if set at 1, detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
exogenous growth rate
policy switch which, if set at 1, detennines
state expenditure growth based upon real per
capita operating expenditure levels and real
per capita capital stock levels
policy switch which, if set at 1, detennines
state expenditure growth based upon a specified
expenditure level per impact individual (for
use in impact analysis)
policy switch used with EXRL4 with value of one
if enclave construction employment not counted
in impact population
policy switch which, if set at 1, detennines
state expenditure growth based upon
constitutionally imposed spending limit
policy switch which, if set at 1, detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
annual change in level of general fund balance
policy switch which, if set at 1, detennines
state operating expenditures growth based upon
saving a specified amount of revenues
policy switch which, if set at 1, detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
spending an annuity (EXANSAV)
annual cost for replacement of capital stock
put in place after 1983; million$
if EXRLOP7 is invoked in detennination of state
operating expenditures, this is the amount of
revenues not spent; million $
if EXRLOP7 iS; invoked in detennination of
state operating expenditures, this is the
exogenous amount of revenues not spent;
mill ion $
special state capital appropriations; million $
F-17
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
KAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Variable
EXSPLIT
EXSPLITX
EXSSS
EXSSS4
EX SUBS
EXSUBSl
EXTRNS
EXTRS
EXTRS4
EXUA
FAGI
FAGII
FERTj
G.BAL99
G.BAL9PC
Definition; Units
the allocation to operations when state
spending falls below the authorized spending
1 imi t; percent
the target allocation to operations when state
spending falls below the authorized spending
1 imit; percent
state social services operating expenditures
net of debt service; million$
state social services operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATIOl;
mill ion $
state subsidy programs initiated after 1980;
mill ion $
initial values for state subsidy programs
initiated after 1980; million$
state Permanent Fund dividend distribution;
million $
state transportation operating expenditures
net of debt service; million $
state transportation operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATIOl;
million $
University of Alaska operating budget; million $
federal adjusted gross income earned in Alaska;
million $
federal adjusted gross income reported on federal
tax returns filed from Alaska; million $
non-Native fertility rate for female cohort j
annual growth in total state fund balance
annual growth in per capita value of combined
state funds
F-18
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
Constructed from IRS, Statistics
of Income and ADL Statistical
Quarterly
IRS Statistics of Income
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services and Alaska
Native Hedical Center
-
.....
-
-
-
....
-
. i
c I
.....
, I
I
r"i"'
i
I
L I
T
-I' i'
Variable
G.EL99
G.EM99
G.EX99S
G.PDRPI
G.POP
G.PR.DPI
G.PR.PI
G.R.WR98
G.RNSPC
G.RSEN
G.SRPC
G.XONRPC
GOBONDL
GOOT
GOOTX
GR
GRDIRPU
GREXCAP
GREXOPS
Definition; Units
annual growth in local government expenditures
annual growth in total employment
annual growth in state government expenditures
annual growth in Alaskan relative price index
annual growth in population
annual growth in real disposable personal incane
per capita
annual growth in real per capita personal incane
annua 1 growth in the average annua 1 rea 1 wage
annual growth in endogenous state revenues per capita
annual growth in endogenous state revenues
annual growth in real state expenditures per capita
annua 1 growth in rea 1 per capita state expendi tures
net of local transfers (EXONTR)
general obligation bonded indebtedness of local
government; million$
general obligation bonded indebtedness of state;
million$
general obligation bonded indebtedness of the state
fran debt incurred before 1983; mi 11 ion $
gross business receipts; million$
annua 1 growth rate of U.S. rea 1 di sposab 1 e persona 1
incane per capita; percent
nominal growth rate of state capital expenditures
using EXRL2
nominal growth rate of state operating expenditures
using EXRl2
F-19
Institute of Social and
Econani c Research .
KAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR, Alaska Taxable
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
Variable
GRRPCEX
GRRWEUS
GRSSCP
GRUSCPI
GTR
Gj
HH
HH24
HH25.29
HH30.54
HH55
HHC
HHI1
HHN
HHRij
HHSIZE
HHSIZEC
HHSIZEN
HHij
Definition; Units
growth rate of real per capita state expenditures
using EXRL3
annual real growth rate of U.S. average weekly
earnings; percent
growth rate of state real per capita state capital
stock using EXRL3
annual growth rate of U.S. consumer price index;
percent
gross taxable receipts; million $
shift factor for aging of cohorts
total Alaska households; thousand
househo 1 ds: head under age of 25; thousand
households: head between ages of 25 and
29; thousand
households: head between ages of 30 and
54; thousand
households: head over 54; thousand
total Alaska civilian non-Native households;
thousand
total Alaska military households; thousand
total Alaska civilian Native households;
thousand
household fonmation rate for civilian non-Native
population in cohort ij
average Alaska household size, all households
average Alaska civilian non-Native household size
average Alaska Native household size
total Alaska households headed by persons in
cohort i j; thousand
F-20
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
I1AP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Constructed fran ADA, Annual
Financial Report and ADR
unpublished data
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, 1980 Census of Population,
Census Tape STF2
BOC, Census of Population
....
-
-
-
-
....
.....
-
-
"'"'
' 1:
Variable
IM.BAl
IM.BAl99
IM.BALPC
IM.BALR
IM.BALRV
IM.BLRPC
IM.REV
INDEX.DI
INDEX.Sl
INDEX.S2
INDEX.~
LF
LFPART
Definition; Units
the summation over time of the annual increments
to IM.REV; million $
the sum of the general fund,' Permanent Fund, and
IMBAL; mi 11 ion $
"i~~"pact balance" per capita; $
real "i111Jact balance"; million 1967 U.S. $
annual revenues contributed to IMBAL, including
interest; million $
real per capita "i111Jact balance"; 1967 U.S. $
the difference between actual state expenditures
in an i111Jact analysis case and what they would
have been if expenditures in real per capita terms
had been kept equivalent to the base case; mi 11 ion $
ratio of Alaskan to U.S. per capita real disposable
personal income
ratio of trade/service/finance employment to Alaska
real disposable personal income
ratio of transportation/communications/utilities
employment to Alaska real disposable personal income
ratio of Alaskan to U.S. real average wage
labor force; thousand
labor force participation rate as a percent
of potential labor force (civilian population
15 through 64); percent
LPTB total value of real property falling within local
government jurisdiction; million $
LPTBFV
LPTBP9
total assessed value of real, personal, and
petroleum property falling within local government
jurisdiction; million $
taxable petroleum property falling within local
government jurisdiction; million $
F-21
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR, Alaska Taxable
Variable
LPTBl
LPTBlFV
LPTRAT
MOPij
HDTOT
11HHij
HI GIN
HIGOOT
MILPCT
HILRAT
MIL ij
Hij
Definition; Units
assessed value of real and personal property
(A.S. 29.53} (not full value); million$
assessed value of real and personal property
assessed at full value; million $
percentage of pipeline property within local
jurisdictions actually subject to local tax
because of limitations imposed by state statutes;
percent
mi 1 i tary dependents in cohort i j; thousand
total military dependents in 1980; thousand
military households headed by individual in
cohort ij; thousand
endogenous civilian migration to Alaska;
thousand
exogenous civilian migration to Alaska;
thousand
Alaska military population as a fraction of
1980 level
the ratio of military employment (EHGH) to
military population (POPM)
anned forces personnel and military dependents
in cohort ij in 1980; thousand
fraction of total endogenous civilian (non-Native)
migration assigned to cohort ij
NAPik Native population in aggregated cohorts k (for
use with income distribution model); thousand
NATINC Alaska civilian non-Native (SIC) natural increase
NATPij Alaska Native population in cohort ij; thousand
NATTOT total Alaska Native population (civilian); thousand
NBTHTOT total Alaska Native births; thousand
F-22
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
-
HAP Documentation _,
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOCR, Alaska Taxable
AOCR, Alaska Taxable
Constructed from ADCR,
Alaska Taxable
BOC, 1980 Census of Population
BOC, 1980 census of Population.
SOC, 1980 Census of Population
SOC, 1980 Census of Population
Alaska Public Survey
BOC, 1980 Census of Population
BOC, 1980 Census of Population
-
-
-
Variable
NCBP
Definition; Units
bonus income to Natives from lease sales on
Native lands; million$
NCBR Alaska crude Native birth rate (per thousand)
NCCAP accumulated capital of Native Corporations;
mill ion $
NCCI
NCOR
NCEXP
Native Corporation income from ANCSA-related
activities; million $
Alaska crude Native death rate
current expenditures of Native Corporations;
million $
NCPI Native personal income from ANCSA-related
activities; million $
NCRP Native recurrent income from petroleum development
on Native lands; million $
NCWS wages and salaries paid by Native Corporations;
million $
NCij
NDTHINF
NDTHTOT
NE14abN
NFERTj
NHHRij
NHHij
NMij
NNATINC
Alaska Native population in cohort ij before
migration; thousand
Alaska Native infant deaths; thousand
total Alaska Native deaths; thousand
Native employment in sector ab; thousand
Native fertility in female cohort j
household fonmation rate for civilian Native
population in cohort ij; percent
Alaska households headed by civilian Native
persons in cohort ij; thousand
migration rate (positive for in; negative for out)
for Native population in cohort ij; percent
Alaska Native natural increase; thousand
F-23
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
14ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC, Census of Population
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services and Alaska
Native Medical Center
BOC, Census of Population,
Census Tape STF2
BOC, Census of Population,
Census Tape STF2
Variable
NNPik
NON PET
NONRP9S
NPGQij
NRClj
NSEXOIV
NSURINFi
NSij
NTP
NWSabN
OEHij
P.BAL99
P.BALGF
P.BALPF
P.DPINN
P.OPINNl
P.EL99
Definition; Units
non-Native population in aggregated cohorts k
for use with income distribution model;
thousand
general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net
of petroleum revenues and fund earnings -
"non-endownen t" revenues; mi 11 ion $
general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net
of petroleum revenues; million $
fraction of civilian Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters
targeted total change in Native household formation
rate for cohort ij
Native sex division at birth
Native infant survival rates
Native survival rate for cohort ij
period over which Native household formation
rates trend; years
Native wages and salaries in sector ab; million $
exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate
(positive for in; negative for out) for
population in cohort ij
combined fund balance per capita; $
general fund balance per capita; $
Permanent Fund balance per capita; $
non-Native disposable personal income per capita; $
Native disposable personal income (SIC) per capita
net of nontaxable ANCSA payment; $
per capita El99; $
F-24
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC, 1990 Census of Population
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Anchorage Urban Observatory
and BOC, 1980 Census of
Population
-
-
-
-
-
-
~I
-
-I
I
I
I
I-:
~
'~
"""'
!"''"
,,
I
I
'
Variable
P.ELEO
P.ELNEDl
P.EX99S
P.EXBH
P.EXCAP
P.EXONTR
P.EXOPS
P.GEXP
P.GOOT
P.NPET
P.NRP9S
P.PI
P.PIN
P.PINCL
P.PINN
P.R99S
P.RLT99
P.RSEN
P.RSIN
P.RSIP
P.RT99
P.RTIS
Definition; Units
per capita ELEO; $
per capita ElNEDl; $
~r capita EX99S; $
per capita unrestricted general fund expenditures
(EXGFBH); $
per capita state capital expenditures; $
per capita state operating expenditures
net of local government transfers; $
per capita state operating expenditures; $
per capita state plus local government
expenditures; $
per capita state government bonded indebtedness; $
per capita state "non-endownent" revenues; $
per capita state nonpetroleum revenues; $
per capita personal income; $
per capita Native personal income; $
per capita Native claims personal income; $
per capita non-Native personal income; $
per capita state general plus Penmanent Fund
revenues; $
per capita state-local revenue transfers; $
per capita state endogenous revenues; $
per capita general and Penmanent Fund earnings; $
per capita interest on the Penmanent Fund; $
per capita total state taxes; $
per capita state personal income tax revenues; $
F-25
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
~
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation .....
11ay 1983
Variable Definition; Units Historical Data Sourcea ""'1
Pl-P6 variables to facilitate printing population
distribution model results; .....
P9PTPER percentage of petrolet.m property which is AOCR, Alaska Taxable
taxable by state which falls within local -,
taxing jurisdiction; percentage
PADl proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attending
district schools; percent ""''
PAD2 proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attendi·ng
REM schools; percent -
PADJ ratio of premit.m (~119P) to average wage
(~1191) in manufacturing sector -,
PARLVFV ratio of local estimate to full value of local
property according to state appraiser; percent -,
PARNONGF proportion of University of Alaska revenues not
from the general fund; percent -PBLTBL proportion of gross business receipts taxable
after 1978 tax law change; percent
PBTRATE state business license tax rate per business; ADR, Revenues Sources
million dollars per business
PC12N proportion of ANCSA payments made to 12 regional Robert Nathan Associates, -Native corporations in Alaska; percent 2~c) Re2Qrt: Federal Programs
and Alaska Natives
~
PC12RN proportion of members of 12 regional Native Robert Nathan Associates,
corporations residing in Alaska; percent 2{c2 R~rt: Federal Programs
and Alaska Natives
PC13C exogenous adjustment to force consistency DOL, Statistical Ouarterl~.
between local goverrvnent personnel expendi-Alaska Economic Trends, and
tures and wages and salaries BOC, Governmental Finances
PC39A miscellaneous employment within agriculture-DOL, Statistical Quarterl~
forestry-fisheries industrial category; thousand -
PC39B forestry employment within agriculture-forestry-DOL, Statistical Ouarterl~
fisheries as proportion of manufacturing employment -
-
F-26
Variable
PCINDA
PCIVPY
PCNCl
PCNC2
Definition; Units
proportion of gap between average industry
employment share and Native industry employment
share that is closed within one time period
ratio of military to federal civilian wage rate;
percent
proportion of AHCSA payments paid directly to
individuals; percent
proportion of recurring incane fran petroleliR
development on Native lands paid directly to
individuals; percent
PCNC3 proportion of earnings on Native
Corporation acct.lll.llated capital paid
directly to individuals; percent
PCNC4
PCNCSV
PCNCSVl
PCNCWS
PCOLART
PCWSl
PCYNAl
PDCON
proportion of bonus incane fran lease sales on
Native lands paid directly to individuals; percent
proportion of Native Corpor~tion incane used for
investment; percent
proportion of bonus incane fran lease sales on
Native lands and retained by Native Corporations
which is used for investment; percent
proport1on of current expenditures of Native
Corporations paid in wages and salaries; percent
the cost of living differential for federal
employees; percentage
ratio of state government wage and salary payments
to personnel expenditures; percent
proportion by which the ratio of personal incane to
wages and salaries for Native exceeds that of the
total population; percent
state government construction price deflator; index
F-27
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
KAP Documentation
~y 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
and ADA, Executive Budget
for construction methodology, see
Kresge and Thomas "Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions. Vol. XI, No. 1
Variable
PDEXOPS
PDRATIO
PDRPI
PDRPIBAS
PDUSCPI
PDUSCPil
PECIG
PERNAl
PERNA2
PERNA3
PESLT
PESLTC
PF
PFISHl
PFN
Definition; Units
state government operating expenditures price
deflator; index
ratio of Alaskan relative price index to U.S.
consl.ll'ler price index
Alaskan relative price index--1967 value is
1.425 times U.S. CPI which in 1967 was 100;
index
1982 Alaskan price level using 1967 US as
base; index
U.S. consumer price index (1967=100); index
initial value for us consumer price index; index
proportion of cigarette tax receipts paid to
special fund
proportion of change in state employment rate
reflected in change in Native employment rate; percent
proportion of gap between Native and state
employment rates that is closed in one year; perce~t
percentage of Native Corporation jobs held by Natives
proportion of "other" state taxes shared with local
government; percent
proportion of state corporate income tax shared with
local government; percent
non-Native females 14 and under; thousand
percentage·of fish harvesting employment
reported as proprietors
Native females 14 and under; thousand
F-28
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
Hay 1983
Historical Data sourcea
constructed from ADL, Statistical
Quarterly, BEA personal income
and employment data
constructed from u.s. Department
of labor, Bureau of labor
Statistics and University of
Alaska, Agriculture Extension
Service, Quarterly Food Price
Survey of 13 Alaskan cities
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
DOL, Statistical Quarterly;
BEA employment data; and
G. Rogers, Measuring the
Socioeconomic Impact of
Alaska's Fisheries
-
-
~I
-
-
Variable
PI
PI.OPI
PI.El99
PI.EX99S
PI.EXL
PI.EXS
PI.EXT
PI.GOOT
PI.Rl99
PI.RLPT
PI.RSEN
PI.TXL
PI.TXS
PI.WS98
PI3
PIS
PIDIR
Definition; Units
personal income; million $
ratio of disposable personal income to total
personal income
ratio of local government expenditures to
personal income
ratio of total state government expenditures
to personal income
ratio of local government expenditures net of
debt service to personal incanie
ratio of state government general fund expenditures
(EXGF) to personal income
ratio of state and local government expenditures
to personal income
ratio of state general obligation bonded debt
to personal income
ratio of local government revenues to personal
income
ratio of local property taxes to personal
income
ratio of endogenous state revenues to personal income
ratio of locally generated local government taxes
to personal income
ratio of state taxes net of petroleum-related taxes
to personal income
ratio of wage and salary plus military
salary income to personal income
personal income net of "enclave" construction
~loyee personal income; million $
personal income plus residence adjustment;
mill ion $
dividends, interest, and rent component of
income; million $
F-29
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
KAP Documentation
11ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
SEA personal income data
BEA personal income
Variable
PIOIST
PIL
PIN
PINl
PINN
PIOLl
PIPADJ
PIPE
PI PRO
PIPROl
PI PROF
PIRADJ
PISSC
PITRAN
PITRANl
PIU.PIA
Definition; Units
model switch which results in retrieval of Native
~loyment and wages and salaries fran income
distribution model if a value of one is chosen;
units
the value of personal income lagged one year
for use in income distribution model
Native personal income, including Native claims
income to individuals; million$
Native personal income net of Native claims
income to individuals, million$
non-Native personal incane; million $
other 1 abor income c~nt of personal income;
million $
ratio of "enclave" to regular construction wage
rate; percent
a proxy variable which takes a value of one
in years of very substantial exogenous
construction activity
proprietors income component of personal income;
mi 11 ion $
nonfishery proprietor income c~nt of personal
income; million $
fishery proprietor income component of personal
income; million $
residence adjustment component of personal income;
million $
personal contributions to Social Security component
of personal income; million $
transfers component of personal income; million $
transfers (excluding Permanent Fund dividend
payments) component of personal income; million $
ratio of non-Native disposable personal income per
capita in Alaska to disposable personal income per
capita in the U.S.
F-30
Institute of Social and
Econanic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BEA, personal income data
ADL Statistical Quarterly
BEA, persona 1 i ncame data
BEA, personal income data
BEA, personal income data
BEA, personal income data
SEA, persona 1 income data
BEA, personal income data
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social and
Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
'~
Variable Definition; Units Historical Data Sourcea
PLFD9 total Alaska potential civilian labor force
f1' aged 15 to 64; thousand
PLFDOI1C Alaska potential civilian non-Native, non-
I""'· mi 1 itary dependent labor force (population
aged 15 to 64) ; thousand
PLFOOf1H Alaska potential military labor force (military
'' dependents aged 15 to 64; active-duty military (: are excluded); thousand
1"'1'1 PLFOOHN Alaska potential civilian Native labor force
aged 15 to 64; thousand
~ PH non-Native males 14 and under used with
income distribution model; thousand
PI1N Native males 14 and under used with
}ncome distribution model; thousand
PNTGR amount of gross receipts exempt from state
gross receipts tax; million $
POP total population; thousand BOC and ADL -POP.AD ratio of Alaska population aged 15 to 64 to
total population
POP.CIV ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population
to total population
POP.GER ratio of Alaska population aged 65 and over to
total population
POP.KID ratio of Alaska population under 15 to total
population
POP.11Il ratio of Alaska military and military dependents
to total population
POP.NAT ratio of Alaska Native population to total
I""" population
I'
POP ADS total Alaska population aged 15 to 64; thousand
POPC total population net of anmed forces personnel BOC and ADl
(includes military dependents); thousand
F-31
Variable
POPCGQ
POPGER
POPGQ
POPKIOS
POPH
POPMGQ
POPHIG
POPNE
POPNGQ .
POPNI9
POPSKUL
Definition; Units
Alaska civilian non-Native population in group
quarters; thousand
total Alaska population aged 65 and over; thousand
total Alaska population in group quarters; thousand
total Alaska population under 15; thousand
anmed forces personnel; thousand
military population in group quarters; thousand
total net civilian migration to Alaska; thousand
Native population based upon Native Corporation
enrollment records; thousand
Alaska Native population in group quarters; thousand
total Alaska civilian natural increase; thousand
total Alaska population aged 5 to 19; thousand
POPij total Alaska population in cohort ij; thousand
PPVAL
PR.BAL99
PR.BALCP
PR.BALGl
PR.BALG2
PR.BALP2
PR.BALPF
total full assessed value of real, personal,
and petrol~related property in the state;
million $
general plus Permanent Fund balance real per
capita; 1967 $
value of state capital stock real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
general fund balance real per capita; 1967 U.S. $
general fund balance real per capita deflated by
state operating budget deflator; 1967 U.S. $
Pennanent Fund balance real per capita deflated
by operating budget deflator; 1967 U.S. $
Permanent Fund balance real per capita; 1967 u.s. $
. F-32
Institute of social and
Economic Research
KAP Documentation ~
~y 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC, Census of Population
soc, Census of Population
SOC, Census of Population
soc, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
soc, Census of Population
2(c) Report-Federal Program &
Alaska Natives by Robert Nathan
Associates, for U.S. Department
of Interior
BOC, Census of Population
BOC, Census of Population
-
-
-
Definition; Units
dispoable personal income real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
Native disposable personal income real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
non-Native disposable income real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
initial value for US real per capita disposable
persona 1 income; $
U.S. disposable personal income real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state capital expenditures for highways
from bond funds real per capita (EXCPSHY);
1967 u.s. $
state capital expenditures nonhighway from bond
funds real per capita (EXCPSNH); 1967 U.S. $
total local expenditures (EL99) real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
local expenditures for education (ELED) real
per capita; 1967 U.S. $
local government capital expenditures for
education (ELEDCP) real per capita; 1967 U.S. $
local non-education expenditures (ELNEDl) real
per capita; 1967 U.S. $
total state expenditures (EX99S) real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state general fund expenditures (EXBM) real per
capita; 1967 U.S. $
state capital expenditures real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state operating expenditures net of local government
transfers real per capita; 1967 U.S. $
state operating expenditures real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
F-33
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
U.S. Department of Commerce
PR.EXccc
PR.GEXP
PR.GFC
PR.GFCN
PR.GODT
PR.NCEXP
PR.NPET
PR.NRP9
Definition; Units
state expenditures in program category ccc
real per capita; 1967 $
state and local government expenditures real
per capita; 1967 U.S. $
state general fund highway capital expenditures
(EXGFCHY) real per capita; 1967 U.S. $
state general fund nonhighway capital expenditures
(EXGFCNH) real per capita; 1967 U.S. $
state goverrvnent bonded indebtedness real per
capita; 1967 U.S. $
real current expenditures of Native Corporations
per Native; 1967 U.S. $
state "non-endcwnent" revenues real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state nonpetroleum revenues real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
PR.PI personal income real per capita; 1967 U.S. $
PR.PI3
PR.PIN
PR.PINCL
PR.PINN
PR.R99S
PR.RLT99
PR.RSEN
personal income net of "enclave" construction
employee personal income (PI3) real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
Native personal income real per capita; 1967 u.s. $
Native personal income real per capita plus real
current expenditures of Native Corporations per
capita; 1967 U.S. $
non-Native personal income real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
total state revenues (R99S) real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state-local revenue transfers real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state endogenous revenues (RSEN) real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
F-34
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
-
-
-
.~
-
-
r Variable
PR.RSIN
PR.RSIP
"""'
I :
PR.RT99
"""'
PR.RTIS
r
PRINT
PRINT2
'~ PTBP9
r'i"' PTOORB I' 1 I
PTOORD
PTOURE
PTOURS
l'f"
PTOURT
PTRTS
MBASE -R.BALCAP il
:I \I __
R.DPI
R.DPIBN
Definition; Units
general and Permanent Fund earnings real per
capita; 1967 U.S. $
Permanent Fund earnings real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state tax revenues (RT99) real per capita;
1967 u.s. $
state personal income tax receipts real per
capita; 1967 u.s. $
variable from income distribution model which allows
results to be printed if value of one is chosen
variable from income distribution model which allows
results to be printed if value of one is chosen
total value of taxable petroleum property;
million $
intercept term on tourist industry
employment equation
proportion of tourist industry employment
in trade
elasticity of tourism employment to growth
in number of tourists
proportion of tourist industry employment
in services
proportion of tourist industry employment in
transportation
tax rate on state petroleum-related property;
percent
average u.s. wages paid in government in 1967; $
real value of state capital stock; million
1967 u.s. $
real disposable personal income; million 1967 U.S. $
real disposable personal income plus residence
adjustment; million 1967 u.s. $
F-35
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR, Alaska Taxable
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Hade 1
Dmprovements to Specification
of the MAP Hodel
constructed using ADA, Annual
Financial Report
Variable
R.DPISX
R.PI
Definition; Units
real disposable personal income plus residence
adjustment of "enclave" construction eq>loyees;
million 1967 u.s. $
real personal income; million 1967 U.S. $
R.PIN Native real personal income; million 1967 u.s. $
R.PINN
R.~98
R99S
R99SNT
R99SON
RATl
RATIOl
RCij
RL99
RL99.PT
RL99.RT
RL991
non-Native real personal income; million 1967 U.S. $
average annual real wage rate for civilian employment;
1967 u.s. $
average annual real wage rate including military;
1967 u.s. $
tota 1 genera 1 fund and Pennanent Fund revenues;
million $
total state revenues net of Pennanent Fund
contributions (EXPFCON); million$
total state revenues net of federal grants-in-aid;
million $
ratio of non-Native income to total taxable income;
percent
variable used to make individual state budget items
consistent with total operating budget constraint;
percent
targeted total change in civilian household
formation rate for cohort ij
tota 1 1 oca 1 gover.nment revenues; mi 11 ion $
ratio of local property taxes to total local
government revenues
ratio of state-local transfers to state-local
government revenues
total local government revenues net of miscellaneous
revenues; million$
F-36
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed using ADL,
Statistical Quarterly
ADA, Annual Financial Report
constructed from BOC Govern-
mental Finances and BOC State
Government Finances
-
-
-·
-
-
-
-
Variable
RLMC
RLOT
RlPT
"""" I RLPTl i:
[;
RLPTX
RLT99
~
RLTCS
""" RLTCS4
,.
i i
''
' RLTE99
r'!"
RLTE994
rr
RLTEA -l
RLTEA4
RLTEB
RLTEB4
RLTEC
r
Definition; Units
local charges and miscellaneous revenue;
million $
local government taxes net of property tax;
mill ion $
local property taxes; million $
local property tax revenues net of exogenous
component; million $
exogenous local property tax; million $
total revenue transfers from state to local
government; million $
state-local shared corporate income tax after
1978 tax law change; million $
initial estimate of state-local shared corporate
income tax before application of RATIOl;
million $
total state-local government transfers for
education purposes; million $
initial estimate of transfers from state to local
government for education purposes before application
of RATIOl; million$
total transfers from state to local government for
primary and secondary education; million$
initial estimate of transfers from state to local
government for primary and secondary education before
application of RATIOl; mi 11 ion $
state aid to local education net of aid to district
schools and since their inception, the REAA schools;
mi 11 ion $
initial estimate of state aid to local government
for education net of district and REAA aid before
application of RATIOl
cigarette tax education transfers from state to
local government; million $
F-37
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC, Governmental Finances
BOC, Governmental Finances
BOC, Governmental Finances
BOC, Governmental Finances
ADA, Annual Financial Report
constructed from BOC, State
Governmental Finances and ADA
Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
Variable
RLTEC4
RLTEF
RLTEF4
RLTEO
RLTE04
. RLTET
RLTET4
RLTF
RLTFPX
RLTI1A
RLTI1A4
RLTHS
RLTOT
RLTOT4
RlTRS
Definition; Units
initial estimate of cigarette tax education
transfers from state to local government before
application of RATIOl; million$
school foundation program transfers from state to
local government; million $
initial estimate of school foundation program
transfers from state to local government before
application of RATIOl; million$
miscellaneous state aids to district schools;
million $
initial estimate of miscellaneous state aids
to district schools before application of RATIOl;
mill ion $
state aid to local district schools for
transportation; million$
initial estimate of state aid to district
schools for transportation before application
of RATIOl; million$
federal-local government transfers; million$
petroleum-related federal-local government transfers;
mill ion $
state local transfers under municipal assistance
program; million$
initial estimate of state-local transfers under
mUnicipal assistance program; million $
state-local revenue transfers net of education,
revenue sharing, and tax sharing; million$
state-local tax sharing of other taxes (amusement
licenses, aviation fuel tax, liquor licenses,
fisheries tax); million$
initial estimate of state-local sharing of other
taxes before application of RATIOl; million$
state-local revenue sharing; million$
F-38
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
I1AP Documentation ~
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial Report
BOC, Governmental Finances
ADA, Executive Budget
constructed from BOC State
Government Finances & ADA
Executive Budget
ADA, Executive Budget
-
-
~'!"'!
i
I
-.
i
-
-
'i
I!
i
:r
t!
I
Variable
RLTRS4
RLTT9
RLTT94
RLTVS
RLTVS4
RLTX
RMIS
RMISRES
RN.FED
RN.Oil
RN.RSEN
RN.RSIN
RNAT
Definition; Units
initial estimate of state-local revenue
sharing before application of RATIOl; million$.
total state-local tax transfers; million$
initial estimate of total state-local tax
transfers; million $
state-local shared electric and telephone
co-op taxes; million $
initial estimate of state-local shared electric
and telephone co-op taxes before application of
RATIOl; million$
exogenous state-local transfers; million$
miscellaneous unrestricted general fund revenues;
million $
miscellaneous restricted general fund
revenues; million $
ratio of federal transfers to general fund
plus Permanent Fund revenues net of Permanent
Fund contributions (EXPFOON)
ratio of state petroleum revenues to general
fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net of
Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFCON)
ratio of endogenous revenues to genera 1
fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net of
Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFCON)
ratio of general and Permanent Fund earnings to
state general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues
net of Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFOON)
Native personal income as percentage of total
personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
RNATX Native personal income as percentage of total
personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
ROFAS state auto licenses and fees; million $
F-39
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Executive Budget
ADR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Annual Financial Report
Variable
ROFERS
ROFOS
ROFTS
ROR
RORANGRO
RORCPOEP
RORCRF
RORDISK
RORNC
RORPOF
RORPPF
RP7S
RP9S
RP9SGF
Definition; Units
general fund ferry receipts; million $
nonauto-related business and nonbusiness licenses
and fees to general fund; million $
total general fund fees and licenses; million $
real rate of return on general fund balance;
percent
under EXRLOP8, rate at which state operating
expenditure annuity grows; percent
real rate of depreciation of state-owned capital;
percent
capital recovery factor for calculating annual
servicing of bonded debt; percent
discount rate applied to future petroleun
revenues to calculate present value in 1982
dollars (DF.RSVP)
nominal rate of return on accumulated capital
of Native Corporations; percent
real rate of return premium applied to development
fund over general fund; percent
real rate of return premium applied to Permanent
Fund in excess of general fund; percent
total petroleum royalties and bonuses; million$
total petroleum revenues before Permanent Fund
deductions; million $
total petroleum revenues paid to general fund;
million $
RP9X miscellaneous exogenous petroleum revenues;
million $
RPBS
RPBSGF
state petroleum bonuses before Permanent Fund
deduction; million $
state petroleum bonuses paid to general fund;
mill ion $
F-40
-Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983 -
Historical Data Sourcea ~
ADA, Annual Financial Report
constructed fnlm ADA, Annual
Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial R~rt -!
-
-
ADR Revenue Sources
ADR, Revenue Sources -
ADR, Revenue Sources
ADR, Revenue Sources
AOR, Revenue Sources
-
-
Variable
RPPS
!"""
i
RPRY
!""" RPRYGF
-RPTS
RS.FED
!"""
RS.CN4
-RS.PET
-RS.REC
RS.RN
I""'
' RS.RP9S
!""" RS.RSEN
.-RS.RSIN
""""
RSBM.899
RSBM.EXD -
RSBM.GF
RSBM.PET
Definition; Units
state petroleum property tax; million $
state petroleum royalties before Penmanent Fund
deduction; million$
state petroleum royalties paid to general fund;
mi 11 ion $
state petroleum production taxes; million$
ratio of federal transfers to total state
revenues
ratio of revenues net of federal transfers to
total state revenues
ratio of "endowle~t· type revenues to total
state revenues
ratio of endogenous and interest revenues to
total state ~evenues
ratio of state general fund revenues net of
penmanent fund contributions (EXPFCON) to total
state revenues
ratio of petroleum revenues to total state
revenues
ratio of endogenous revenues to total state
revenues
ratio of general and Penmanent Fund earnings
to total state revenues
ratio of fund earnings (RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF) to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of debt service expenditures (EXOSS) to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of general fund earnings (RSIG) to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of endowment revenues (RP9SGF+RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF)
to unrestricted general fund revenues
F-41
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Revenue Sources
ADR. Revenue Sources
ADR, Revenue Sources
Variable
RSBM.PF
RSBH.REN
RSBH.RP9
RSEN
RSENGF
RSFDN
RSFONPX
RSFONPXG
RSFONX
RSFFS
RSFS
RSFSl
RSGF
RSGFBM
RSGFGAP
RSGFRS
RSIAS
Definition; Units
ratio of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to
general fund (RSIPGF) to unrestrict~general
fund revenues
ratio of endogenous general fund revenues (RSENGF)
to unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of petroleum revenues (RP9SGF) to
unrestricted general fund revenues
state endogenous revenues; mi 11 ion $
endogenous state unrestricted general fund
revenues; million$
total federal grants-in-aid to state general
fund; mill ion $
federal-state shared petroleum royalties;
million$
general fund portion of federal-state shared
petroleum royalties; million$
exogenous federal-state transfer payments;
million$
fees and licenses receipts paid into the fish
and game special revenue fund; million $
total revenues of the special funds except the
Permanent Fund; million$
miscellaneous receipts of state special revenue
funds; million$
total state general fund revenues (unrestricted
and restricted); million$
total general fund unrestricted revenues; million $
the difference between the statutory spending
limit and available funds; million$
restricted state general fund revenues; million $
international airport receipts (enterprise fund);
million $
F-42
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA, Annual Financial Report
AOR, Revenue Sources
ADR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA, Annual Financial R~rt
ADA, Annual Financial R~rt
ADA, Annual Financial R~rt
ADR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Annual Financial Report
-
-
-
""""
'"'"'I
~
II"'\
-
-
r
r
-
-
-
-i
Variable
RSIO
RSIONET
RSIG
RSIGNET
RSIN
RSINNET
RSIP
RSIPGF
RSIPNET
RT99
RTAS
RTBS
RTBSl
RTBS2
RTCIS
RTCS
·Definition; Units
state development fund earnings; million $
state development fund earnings net of inflation;
million $
state general fund interest; million $
state general fund interest net of inflation;
million $
state general fund interest plus Permanent Fund
interest; million$
state general fund interest plus Permanent Fund
interest net of inflation; million$
state Permanent Fund interest; million$
state Permanent Fund interest transferred into
general fund; million$
state Permanent Fund interest net of inflation;
mill ion $
total state tax revenues; million$
alcoholic beverage tax; million$
gross receipts tax and business license tax;
mill ion $
portion of gross receipts tax revenues derived fran
business licenses; million $
portio~ of gross receipts tax revenues derived from
gross receipts in excess of exempted amount per
business; million $
cigarette tax receipts (sum of general fund and
tobacco fund receipts); million$
state corporate tax receipts; million $
RTCSl corporate incane tax net of petroleum sector;
million$
F-43
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
11ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOR, Revenue Sources
AOR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Annual Financial Report
and ADR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Annual Financial Report
constructed from ADR unpublished
data ·
constructed from ADA, Annual
Financial Report and ADL,
unpublished data
ADA, Annual Financial Report
and ADR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Annual Financial Report
and AOR, Revenue Sources
Variable
RTCSPX
Definition; Units
state corporate tax receipts from petroleum sector;
million $
RTCSX exogenous corporate income tax; million$
RTIS
RTISC
RTISCA
RTISCAl
RTISCA2
RTISCP
RTISLOS
RTISXX
RTIW
RTOTS
RTPIF
RTSS
RTVS
personal income tax; million$
personal income tax on a calendar year basis;
million $
persona 1 income tax 1 i abi 1 i ty per taxpayer
on a calendar year basis; thousand $
initial estimate of personal income tax liability
per taxpayer on a ca 1 endar year basis; · thousand $
initial estimate of personal income tax liability
per taxpayer on a calendar year basis without tax
structure changes introduced by modeler; thousand $
calendar-year state income taxes paid out of
Alaskan resident personal income; million$
difference per taxpayer between personal income
tax liability before and after structural changes
introduced by modeler; million$
adjustment of disposable income to cover lag in
refund in state personal income taxes after
repeal; million$
highway, aviation, and marine fuel taxes;
million $
other state taxes--consists of fiduciary,
inheritance, estate, mining, conservation,
prepaid, and fish taxes; million_$
federal income taxes paid out of Alaskan
resident personal income; million $
school tax; million $
ad valorem taxes consisting of insurance premium
tax and electric telephone company revenue tax;
million $
F-44
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
-
MAP Documentation -
f'ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOR, Revenue Sources
ADA, Annual Financial Report
AOR, ClJTlllative Sunmary of
Revenue, a monthly report
AOR, unpublished data
ADA, Annual Financial Report
and ADR, Revenue Sources
AOR, Revenue Sources
BEA -di sposab 1 e persona 1
income data
ADA, Annual Financial Report
ADA. Annual Financial Report
and ADR. Revenue Sources
-
-
-
-
r
:·-
I'""
!
Variable
SANCSA
SEXOIV
SLGEXP
SURINFi
Sij
Definition; Units
payments to Alaska Natives by state government
under ANCSA; million $
non-Native sex division at birth; percent
total carbined state and local government
expenditures; million $
non-Native infant survival rates; percent
non-Native survival rate for cohort ij
TCRED individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77; $
THG
TOURIST
TP
TPTV
TXBASE
TXCRPC
TXPTXX
TXRT
U.AK.US
UNEMP
total gallons of highway gasoline sold in the
state (does not include off-highway gallon sales);
mill ion gallons
number of tourist visitors to Alaska; thousands
period over which civilian household formation
rates trend; years
total highway motor vehicles operating in the state
(passenger and truck); thousand
change in the floor of personal incane tax rate
schedule; units
state personal incane tax credit adjustment
(percentage of tax liability);
adjustment to withold from state expenditures
a portion of any personal incane tax reduction;
percent
percentage change in state. personal income tax rate;
percentage
ratio of unemployment rates in Alaska and the u.s.
average
average annual Alaska unemployment; thousand
F-45
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
ADR, monthly motor vehicle
tax forms
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Department of Public Safety,
Motor Vehicle Division
ADL
Variable
ws
VAEX
VAEXl
WEALTH
WEUS
WEUSl
~.AK.US
hR97
Wl98
~CNNP
WlCNP
WlGC
w:«;ab
~M9P
Definition; Units
US un~lo)ment rate; percent
value of a personal ex~tion on personal
i ncane tax; $
initial value for personal exemption; $
four-year average of real per capita incane;
1967 u.s. $
average weekly wage & salary earnings in U.S.; $
initial value for average weekly wage and salary
earnings in United States; $
ratio of Alaska to U.S. civilian wage rate
average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage
and salary employment; $
average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage
and salary employment plus military; $
average annual wage rate for non-"enclaveu
construction wage rate; $
average annual wage rate for premiln wage (pipeline
or "enclave") construction; $
average annual wage rate for communications and
public utilities; $
average annual wage rate for federal civilian; $
annual growth in income per proprietor (input
to income distribution model)
annual growth in real annual wage rate in
industry ab (input to incane distribution model)
average annual wage rate for existing (low wage)
manufacturing emplo)ment; $
average annual wage rate for large-project
(nigh wage) manufacturing employment; $
F-46
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
IRS, Statistics of Income
U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
AOL, Statistical Quarterly
AOL, Statistical quarterly
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
ADl, Statistical Quarterly
ADl, Statistical Quarterly
-
-
-!
-
-
-.
""'l
-
~
' ~-
~
·~
r
-
-
-
r
....
r
I
I
Variable
~SB
~SNB
WS97
WS98
Definition; Units
average annual wage rate for business services; $
average annual wage rate for nonbusiness services; $
average annual wage rate for industry sector ab; $
total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural
wage and salary industries; million $
total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural
wage and salary industries plus military; million $
WS98L wages and salaries lagged one year (input to income
distribution model); million$
WSCNP wages and salary payments in high wage ("enclave")
construction; million $
WSGC federal civilian wages and salaries; million $
WSGL local government wages and salaries; million $
WSGH military personnel wages and salaries; million $
WSGS
WSGSFY
WSH9P
state government wages and salaries; million$
state government wages and salaries on fiscal year
basis; million $
wages and salaries paid in high wage exogenous
large-project manufacturing; million $
WSNA wages and salaries paid to Natives; million $
WSS91 wages and salaries in services net of Native
Corporation-related wages; million $
WSab
Xl-X6
XX98
wages and salaries paid in industry ab; ab::CN GA
A9 Cf1 DR ml 09 FI GF M9 PU P9 59 19; million $
variables used to facilitate printing of output
of the income distribution model
total real gross state product in wage and salary
industries and military; million 1972 U.S. $
F-47
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADL~ Statistical Quarterly
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
AOL, Statistical Quarterly
AOL, Statistical Quarterly
BEA, personal income data
AOL, Statistical Quarterly
AOL, Statistical Quarterl):
ADL, Statistical Quarterly
Variable
XXA9
XXCNl
XXCNS
XXDRNT
XXH9
XXH91
XXf1X2
XXS8NT
XXSB
XX TNT
XXVACAP
XXVHY
Definition; Units
agriculture-forestry-fisheries real gross state
product; million 1972 U.S. $
endogenous (residentiary plus state government)
component of construction real gross state
product: million 1972 U.S. $
residentiary construction real gross state product;
million 1972 u.s. $
state retail trade net of tourism real gross
state product; million 1972 $
manufacturing real gross state product;
million 1972 U.S. $
manufacturing net of large projects real gross
state product net of large projects; million
1972 u.s. $
exogenous large-project manufacturing real
gross state product; million 1972 U.S. $
support services (net of business, tourism,
and Native claims) real gross state product;
million 1972 U.S. $
business services real gross state product;
million· 1972 U.S. $
transportation (net of tourism and exogenous
components) real gross state product; million
1972 u.s. $
value added in contract construction accounted for
by government (state) purchases fran the private
contracting industry; million 1972 U.S. $
value added in construction industry fran private
contracts for highway construction let by state
government; million$
F-48
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
11ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
for construction methodology. see
Kresge and Thanas, "Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions, Vol. XI,
No. 1
for construction methodologies,
see Kresge and Thanas, "Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions, Vol. XI, No. 1
constructed from ADPW worksheets
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Variable
XXVNHY
XXab
YR
Definition; Units
value added in construction industry fran private
contracts for nonhighway construction let by
state government; million$
real gross state product in industry ab;
ab=A9 CM CN DR OW 09 FI GA GF PU P9 59 T9;
million 1972 u.s. $
year
F-49
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Docllllentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADPW worksheets
for construction methodologies, see
Kresge and Thomas, "Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions, Vol. XI, No. 1
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MODEL: A83.2
APPENDIX G
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL LISTING
Including
1. Fiscal Module
2. Economic Module
3. Population Module
4. Household Module
5. Native Economic Activity
6. Definitional Equations
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
7. Links to Income Distribution Model
8. Parameter List
PURPOSE: This model calculates annual statewide economic, fiscal, and
demographic output based on user-specified input assumptions.
DATE: May 1983
SYMBOLS
ENDOGENOUS:
ADMSD AEX AGI AHG ATD ATI ATI.TT ATT BALCAP84 BALDF BALGF
BALGFCP BALGFP BALPF BAL99 BIU BL CEA9N CECMN CECNN CED9N
CEFIN CEGAN CEGFN CEM9N CEPUN CEP9N CES9N CET9N CNNPFl
CNNPFlO CNNPFll CNNPF12 CNNPF13 CNNPF14 CNNPF15 CNNPF2 CNNPF3
CNNPF4 CNNPFS CNNPF6 CNNPF7 CNNPF8 CNNPF9 CNNPMl CNNPMlO
CNNPMll CNNPM12 CNNPM13 CNNPM14 CNNPM15 CNNPM2 CNNPM3 CNNPM4
CNNPMS CNNPM6 CNNPM7 CNNPM8 CNNPM9 COLA DEBTP82 DF.RSVP DPI
DPIRES DPI8 ELBD ELED ELEDCP ELEDl ELNEDl ELPERS EL99
EMAFISH EMA9 EMCM EMCN EMCNRT EMCNX EMCNl EMDR EMDRNT
EMDTOUR EMDW EMD9 EMFI EMGA EMGF EMGL EMGS EMMO EMM9 EMM91
EMPRO EMPROFIS EMPROl EMPU EMRATE EMRATNl EMSB EMSP EMSTOUR
EMSUP EMS8NT EMS9 EMS91 EMTCU EMTNT EMTOUR EMTTOUR EMT9
EMT91 EMX EM96 EM97 EM98 EM99 EXANSAV EXCAP EXCAPFR EXCDS
EXCDSNT EXCDS4 EXCPS EXCPSFED EXCPSHY EXCPSM EXCPSNH EXDFCON
EXDFWITH EXDSS EXEDS EXEDS4 EXGF EXGFBM EXGFCHY EXGFCNH
EXGGS EXGGS4 EXHES EXHES4 EXINREC EXJUS EXJUS4 EXLIM EXLIMOK
"EXNOPS EXNRS EXNRS4 EXOPS EXPFCON EXPPS EXPPS4 EXPRCDS
EXPREDSl EXPRGGS EXPRHES EXPRJUS EXPRNRS EXPRPPS EXPRSSS
EXPRTRS EXPRUA EXPR99 EXSAVS EXSSS EXSSS4 EXSUBS EXTRNS
EXTRS EXTRS4 EXUA EX99S FAGI FAGII GOBONDL GODT GR GTR
IM.BAL IM.BALRV LPTB LPTBl MIGIN MIGOUT MILPCT NATPFl
NATPFlO NATPFll NATPF12 NATPF13 NATPF14 NATPF15 NATPF2 NATPF3
NATPF4 NATPFS NATPF6 NATPF7 NATPF8 NATPF9 NATPMl NATPMlO
NATPMll NATPM12 NATPM13 NATPM14 NATPMlS NATPM2 NATPM3 NATPM4
NATPMS NATPM6 NATPM7 NATPM8 NATPM9 NCCAP NCCI NCPI P.DPINN
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PDCON PDEXOPS PDRATIO PDRPI PDUSCPI PI PIDIR PIOLI PIPROF
PIPROl PIRADJ PISSC PITRAN PITRANl PI3 PI8 POP POPC POPGER
POPM POPMIG POPNE POPSKUL PR.BALCP PR.DPINN PR.DPIUS PR.PI
PR.PI3 R.BALCAP R.DPI R.DPI8N R.DPI8X R.WR97 RLMC RLOT RLPTl
RLTCS RLTCS4 RLTEB RLTEB4 RLTEF4 RLTEO RLTE04 RLTET RLTET4
RLTE99 RLTE994 RLTF RLTMA RLTMA4 RLTMS RLTRS RLTRS4 RLTT9
RLTT94 RLTVS4 RLT99 RMIS RMISRES ROFAS ROFERS ROFOS RSFDN
RSFFS RSFSl RSGF RSGFBM RSIAS RTAS ·RTBS2 RTCIS RTCSl RTIS
RTISC RTISCAl RTISCA2 RTISCP RTISLOS RTMF RTOTS RTPIF RTSS
RTVS R99S TPTV VAEX WEALTH WEUS WRA9 WRCM WRCN WRCNNP
WRCNP WRDR WRDW WRD9 WRFI WRGA WRGC WRGF WRGL WRGM WRGS
WRM91 WRPU WRP9 WRSB WRSNB WRS9 WRT9 WR98 WSCN WSCNP WSGA
WSGC WSGL WSGM WSGS WSGSFY WS97 WS98 XXA9 XXCM XXCN XXCNl
XXCN8 XXDR XXDRNT XXDW XXD9 XXFI XXGA XXGF XXM91 XXPU XXP9
XXSB XXS8NT XXS9 XXTNT XXT9 XXVHY XXVNHY XX98
CONSTRUCT:
DF.BALDF DF.BALGF DF.BALPF DF.BAL9P DF.BAL99 DF.CABBM DF.EXGF
DF.EXGFB DF.EXGFP DF.GOXBH DF.NPET DF.NRP9S DF.PI DF.PIP
DF.RGFNT DF.RP9S DF.RSEN DF.RSFD DF.RSGF DF.RSGFB DF.RSIDN
DF.RSIGN DF.RSIN DF.RSINN DF.RSIP DF.RSIPN DF.R99S DF.WRG9
DF.WRNS DF.WRSP DF.WSG9 DF.WSNS DF.WSSP DF.WS98 EM.EMCN
EM.EMGA EM.EMGF EM.EMG9 EM.EMNR EM.EMNS EM.EMP9 EM.EMSP
EM.EMSUP EM.EMTCU EX.DSS EX.NPET EX.NRP9 EX.PET EX.RP9S
EX.RSEN EX.RSIN EX.RVNT EX.R99S EXBM.CAB EXBM.END EXBM.FD
EXBM.GRl EXBM.RV G.BAL9PC G.BAL99 G.EL99 G.EM99 G.EX99S
G.PDRPI G.POP G.PR.DPI G.PR.PI G.R.WR98 G.RNSPC G.RSEN G.SRPC
G.XONRPC IM.BALPC IM.BALR IM.BAL99 IM.BLRPC IM.REV INDEX.DI
INDEX.Sl INDEX.S2 INDEX.WG P.BALGF P.BALPF P.BAL99 P.DPINNl
P.ELED P.ELNEDl P.EL99 P.EXBM P.EXCAP P.EXONTR P.EXOPS
P.EX99S P.GEXP P.GODT P.NPET P.NRP9S P.PI P.PIN P.PINCL
P.PINN P.RLT99 P.RSEN P.RSIN P.RSIP P.RTIS P.RT99 P.R99S
PI.DPI PI.EL99 PI.EXL PI.EXS PI.EXT PI.EX99S PI.GODT PI.RLPT
PI.RL99 PI.RSEN PI.TXL PI.TXS PI.WS98 PIU.PIA POP.AD POP.CIV
POP.GER POP.KID POP.MIL POP.NAT PR.BALGl PR.BALG2 PR.BALPF
PR.BALP2 PR.BAL99 PR.DPI PR.DPIN PR.ECP PR.ECPN PR.ELED
PR.ELEDC PR.ELNED PR.EL99 PR.EXBM PR.EXCAP PR.EXCDS PR.EXEDS
PR.EXGGS PR.EXHES PR.EXJUS PR.EXNRS PR.EXONT PR.EXOPS PR.EXPPS
PR.EXSSS PR.EXTRS PR.EX99S PR.GEXP PR.GFC PR.GFCN PR.GODT
PR.NCEXP PR.NPET PR.NRP9 PR.PIN PR.PINCL PR.PINN PR.RLT99
PR.RSEN PR.RSIN PR.RSIP PR.RTIS PR.RT99 PR.R99S R.PI R.PIN
R. PINN R. WR98 RL99. PT RL99. RT RN. FED RN. OIL RN. RSEN RN·. RSIN
RS.FED RS.OWN RS.PET RS.REC RS.RN RS.RP9S RS.RSEN RS.RSIN
RSBM.B99 RSBM.GF RSBM.PET RSBM.PF RSBM.REN RSBM.RP9 U.AK.US
WR.AK.US
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
DEFINITION:
ADMDIS ADMREA BALCAB BALCABBM BALLANDS BALOCAL BCRUDE BTHTOT
BTOT CBR CDR CFl CFlO CFll CF12 CF13 CF14 CF15 CF2 CF3
CF4 CF5 CF6 CF7 CF8 CF9 CHHFlO CHHFll CHHF12 CHHF13 CHHF14
CHHF15 CHHF4 CHHF5 CHHF6 CHHF7 CHHF8 CHHF9 CHHMlO CHHMll
CHHM12 CHHM13 CHHM14 CHHM15 CHHM4 CHHM5 CHHM6 CHHM7 CHHM8
CHHM9 CMl CMlO CMll CM12 CM13 CM14 CM15 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
CM6 CM7 CM8 CM9 CNNTOT DCRUDE DELEMP DTHINF DTHTOT DTOT
EMCU EMG9 EMMX EMNA EMNAT EMNC EMNNC EMNR EMNS EMOCSX
EMRATN EXBUD EXCAPNEW EXCAPREP EXCPSGOB EXEDSNT EXGFCAP
EXaFOPER EXHYCAP EXNHYCP EXOM84 EXONTR EXPFCONl EXPFNEW
EXPFREIN EXRP84 EXSPLIT HH HHC HHFlO HHFll HHF12 HHF13
HHF14 HHF15 HHF4 HHF5 HHF6 HHF7 HHF8 HHF9 HHM HHMlO HHMll
HHM12 HHM13 HHM14 HHM15 HHM4 HHM5 HHM6 HHM7 HHM8 HHM9 HHN
HHSIZE HHSIZEC HHSIZEN HH24 HH25.29 HH30.54 HH55 LF LPTBFV
LPTBP9 LPTBlFV NAPFl NAPF2 NAPF3 NAPF4 NAPF5 NAPF6 NAPF7
NAPMl NAPM2 NAPM3 NAPM4 NAPM5 NAPM6 NAPM7 NATINC NATTOT
NBTHTOT NCBR NCDR NCEXP NCFl NCFlO NCFll NCF12 NCF13 NCF14
NCF15 NCF2 NCF3 NCF4 NCF5 NCF6 NCF7 NCF8 NCF9 NCMl NCMlO
NCMll NCM12 NCM13 NCM14 NCM15 NCM2 NCM3 NCM4 NCM5 NCM6
NCM7 NCM8 NCM9 NCWS NDTHINF NDTHTOT NEMA9N NEMCMN NEMCNN
NEMD9N NEMFIN NEMGAN NEMGFN NEMM9N NEMPUN NEMP9N NEMS9N
NEMT9N NHHFlO NHHFll NHHF12 NHHF13 NHHF14 NHHF15 NHHF4 NHHF5
NHHF6 NHHF7 NHHF8 NHHF9 NHHMlO NHHMll NHHM12 NHHM13 NHHM14
NHHM15 NHHM4 NHHM5 NHHM6 NHHM7 NHHM8 NHHM9 NNATINC NNPFl
NNPF2 NNPF3 NNPF4 NNPF5 NNPF6 NNPF7 NNPMl NNPM2 NNPM3 NNPM4
NNPM5 NNPM6 NNPM7 NONPET NONRP9S NWSA9N NWSCMN NWSCNN NWSD9N
NWSFIN NWSGAN NWSGFN NWSM9N NWSPUN NWSP9N NWSS9N NWST9N PF
PFN PIL PIN PINN PINl PIPE PIPRO PLFDOMC PLFDOMM PLFDOMN
PLFD9 PM PMN POPADS POPCGQ POPFl POPFlO POPFll POPF12
POPF13 POPF14 POPF15 POPF2 POPF3 POPF4 POPF5 POPF6 POPF7
POPF8 POPF9 POPGQ POPKIDS . POPMl POPMlO POPMll POPM12 POPM13
POPM14 POPM15 POPM2 POPM3 POPM4 POPM5 POPM6 POPM7 POPM8
POPM9 POPNGQ POPNI9 PPVAL PRINT PTBP9 RATIO! RATl RLPT
RLTEA RLTEA4 RLTEC RLTEC4 RLTEF RLTOT RLTOT4 RLTVS RL99
RL991 RNAT ROFTS RPBSGF RPRYGF RP7S RP9S RP9SGF RSBM.EXD
RSEN RSENGF RSFDNPXG RSFS RSGFGAP RSGFRS RSID RSIDNET RSIG
RSIGNET RSIN RSINNET RSIP RSIPGF RSIPNET RTBS RTBSl RTCS
RTISCA RT99 R99SNT R99SON SLGEXP THG UNEMP WRCU WRGCN WRGCU
WRGD9 WRGFI WRGGA WRGGC WRGMS WRGM9 WRGP9 WRGS9 WRGT9 WRM9
WRM9P WR97 WSA9 WSCM WSD9 WSFI WSGF WSM9 WSM9P WSNA WSPU
WSP9 WSS9 WSS91 WST9 WS98L XXM9 XXVACAP Xl X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
EXOGENOUS:
ANCSA BADD BALDFl BALGFl BALPFl BAL991 BASEMCNX
BASEXCAP BASEXGF BASEXOPS BASPDRPI BIUl D.80DEC6
D61.68 D61.69 D61.70 D61.72 D61.73 D61.74 D61.75
D61.77 D64.65 D69 D71.00 D71.73 D72 D75 D77.00
BASEPOP
D61.66
D61. 76
D79 D81.00
EMNATX EXCAPl EXCPSHYl EXCPSNHl EXDSSX EXGFCHYl EXGFCNHl
EXOPSl GODTX LPTRAT NCBP NCRP PCNCl PCNC2 PCNC3 PCOLART
PDUSCPil PIPADJ PR.DPIUl P9PTPER RNATX RTISXX SANCSA TCRED
TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX TXRT VAEXl WEUSl YR
G-3
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
-
MAP Documentation l"'ml
May 1983
POLICY:
EKAGRI EMCNXl EMCNX2 EMFISH EMGC EKGM EMMXl EMMX2 EMP9
EMT9X EXBOND EXDFPCNT EXDFl EXPFBAK EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFl
EXPRPER EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSl GRDIRPU GREXCAP
GREXOPS GRRPCEX GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI RLPTX RLTFPX RLTX
RPBS RPPS RPRY RPTS RP9X RSFDNPX RSFDNX RTCSPX RTCSX
TOURIST UUS XXMX2
COEFFICIENT:
CMIGl CMIG2 CMIG3 CMIG4 ClA ClB ClC ClOA ClOB ClOC ClOOA
ClOOB ClOOC ClOlA ClOlB Cl02A Cl02B C102C C102D Cl02F Cl03A
Cl03B Cl03C Cl04A Cl04B ClOSA ClOSB ClOSC C106A Cl06B C107A
Cl07B CllA CllB C12A Cl2B Cl3A Cl3B Cl4A C14B Cl4C ClSA
ClSB Cl6A Cl6B Cl6C Cl6D Cl6E Cl7A Cl7B Cl8A C18B Cl9A
Cl9B C2A C2B C20A C20B C21A C21B C21C C22A C22B C23A C238
C23C C23D C24A C24B C2SA C2SB C26A C26B C26C C27A C27B
C27C C28A C28B C28C C29A C29B C3A C38 C30A C30B C31A C31B
C32A C32B C33A C33B C34A C34B C34C C3SA C3SB C36A C36B
C36C C36D C36F C37A C37B C38A C38B C39A C39B C4A C48 C40A
C40B C41A C41B C42A C42B C43A C43B C43C C44A C44B C44C
C44D C45A C4SB C4SC C4SD C46A C46B C47A C47B C48A C48B
C49A C49B CSA CSB CSOA CSOB CSlA CSlB CS2A CS2B CS3A CS3B
CS3C CS3D CS3F CS4A C54B CS4C CS4D C54E CSSA CSSB esse
CS6A CS6B CS7A CS7B C57C CS8A CS8B C59A C59B C59C C59D
CS9E C59F C6A C6B C60A C60B C60C C61A C61B C62A C62B C62C
C62D C62F C63A C63B C64A C64B C64C C64D C64E C6SA C6SB
C66A C66B C66C C66D C66E C66F C67A C67B C67C C68A C68B
C68C C68D C69A C69B C7A C7B C70A C70B C70C C70D C70F C71A
C71B C71C C71D C71E C72A C72B C72C C72D C73A C73B C73C
C74A C74B C74C C74D C74F C7SA C7SB C76A C76B C76C C76D
C76E C77A C77B C78A C78B C78C C78D C78E C78F C79A C79B
C79D C79E C79F C8A C8B C80A C80B C80C C81A C81B C82A C82B
C82C C82D C82F C83A C83C C83D C83E C84A C84B C84C C84D
C85A C8SB C86A C86B C86C C86D C86E C86F C87A C87B C88A
C88B C88C C88D C88E C88F C88G C89A C9A C9B C90A C90B C91A
C91B C92A C92B C92C C92F C93A C93B C94A C94B C9SA C9SB
C9SC C95D C95F C96A C96B C97A C97B C98A C98B C99A C99B
PARAMETER:
AFTOT CPGQFl CPGQFlO CPGQFll CPGQF12 CPGQF13 CPGQF14 CPGQFlS
CPGQF2 CPGQF3 CPGQF4 CPGQFS CPGQF6 CPGQF7 CPGQF8 CPGQF9
CPGQMl CPGQMlO CPGQMll CPGQM12 CPGQM13 CPGQM14 CPGQMlS CPGQM2
CPGQM3 CPGQK4 CPGQKS CPGQK6 CPGQM7 CPGQM8 CPGQK9 EXANNU
EXCAPIMP EXCAPOLD EXELl EXEL2 EXEL3 EXEL4 EXELS EXEL6
EXLIM82 EXOMCOST EXOPSIKP EXRLOP6 EXRLOP7 EXRLOP8 EXRLl EXRL2
EXRL3 EXRL4 EXRL40P EXRLS FERTlO FERTll FERT4 FERTS FERT6
FERT7 FERT8 FERT9 Gl GlO Gll Gl2 Gl3 Gl4 GlS G2 G3 G4
GS G6 G7 G8 G9 HHRFlO HHRFll HHRF12 HHRF13 HHRF14 HHRFlS
HHRF4 HHRFS HHRF6 HHRF7 HHRF8 HHRF9 HHRMlO HHRMll HHRM12
HHRM13 HHRM14 HHRMlS HHRM4 HHRMS HHRM6 HHRM7 HHRM8 HHRM9
LFPART KDPFl MDPFlO MDPFll MDPF12 MDPF13 MDPF14 MDPFlS MDPF2
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Institute of social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
MDPF3 MDPF4 MDPF5 MDPF6 MDPF7 MDPF8 MDPF9 MDPMl MDPMlO
MDPMll MDPM12 MDPM13 MDPM14 MDPM15 MDPM2 MDPM3 MDPM4 MDPM5
MDPM6 MDPM7 KDPM8 MDPM9 MDTOT MFl MFlO MFll MF12 MF13 KF14
MF15 MF2 MF3 MF4 MF5 MF6 KF7 KF8 MF9 MHHFlO MHHFll MHHF12
MHHF13 KHHF14 MHHF15 MHHF5 MHHF6 MHHF7 MHHF8 MHHF9 MHHMlO
MHHMll MHHM12 MHHM13 MHHM14 MHHM15 MHHM5 MHHM6 MHHK7 MHHK8
MHHM9 MILFl MILFlO MILFll MILF12 MILF13 MILF14 MILF15 MILF2
MILF3 MILF4 MILF5 MILF6 MILF7 MILF8 MILF9 MILMl KILMlO
MILMll MILM12 MILM13 KILM14 MILM15 MILM2 MILM3 MILM4 MILKS
MILM6 MILM7 MILM8 MILM9 MILRAT MMl MMlO MMll MM12 MM13
MM14 MM15 MM2 MM3 MM4 MM5 MM6 MM7 MM8 MM9 NFERTlO NFERTll
NFERT4 NFERT5 NFERT6 NFERT7 NFERT8 NFERT9 NHHRFlO NHHRFll
NHHRF12 NHHRF13 NHHRF14 NHHRF15 NHHRF4 NHHRF5 NHHRF6 NHHRF7
NHHRF8 NHHRF9 NHHRMlO NHHRKll NHHRM12 NHHRM13 NHHRM14 NHHRM15
NHHRM4 NHHRM~ NHHRM6 NHHRM7 NHHRM8 NHHRM9 NMFl NKFlO NMFll
NKF12 NMF13 NKF14 NKF15 NMF2 NMF3 NMF4 NKF5 NKF6 NKF7 NKF8
NKF9 NMMl NMMlO NMMll NMM12 NKM13 NMM14 NMM15 NKM2 NMM3
NMM4 NMM5 NMM6 NKM7 NKM8 NKM9 NPGQFl NPGQFlO NPGQFll
NPGQF12 NPGQF13 NPGQF14 NPGQF15 NPGQF2 NPGQF3 NPGQF4 NPGQF5
NPGQF6 NPGQF7 NPGQF8 NPGQF9 NPGQMl NPGQMlO NPGQMll NPGQM12
NPGQM13 NPGQM14 NPGQM15 NPGQM2 NPGQM3 NPGQM4 NPGQM5 NPGQM6
NPGQM7 NPGQM8 NPGQM9 NRCFlO NRCFll NRCF12 NRCF13 NRCF14
NRCF15 NRCF4 NRCF5 NRCF6 NRCF7 NRCF8 NRCF9 NRCMlO NRCMll
NRCK12 NRCM13 NRCM14 NRCM15 NRCM4 NRCM5 NRCM6 NRCM7 NRCM8
NRCM9 NSEXDIV NSFl NSFlO NSFll NSF12 NSF13 NSF14 NSF15 NSF2
NSF3 NSF4 NSF5 NSF6 NSF7 NSF8 NSF9 NSMl NSMlO NSMll NSM12
NSK13 NSM14 NSM15 NSM2 NSM3 NSM4 NSK5 NSM6 NSM7 NSM8 NSM9
NSURINFF NSURINFM NTP OEMFl
OEMF14 OEMF15 OEMF2 OEMF3
OEMF9 OEMMl OEMMlO OEMMll
OEMM3 OEMM4 OEMM5 OEMM6
OEMFlO OEMFll OEMF12 OEMF13
OEMF4 OEMF5 OEMF6 OEMF7 OEMF8
OEMM12 OEMM13 OEMM14 OEMM15 OEMM2
OEMM7 OEMM8 OEMM9 PADJ PADl PAD2
PARLVFV PARNONGF PBLTBL PBTRATE PCINDA PCIVPY PCNCSV PCNCSVl
PCNCWS PCNC4 PCWSl PCYNAl PC12N PC12RN PC13C PC39A PC398
PDRPIBAS PECIG PERNAl PERNA2 PERNA3 PESLT PES LTC PFISHl
PIDIST PNTGR POPMGQ PRINT2 PTOURB PTOURD PTOURE PTOURS
PTOURT PTRTS PWRBASE Pl P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 RCFlO RCFll RCF12
RCF13 RCF14 RCF15 RCF4 RCF5 RCF6 RCF7 RCF8 RCF9 RCMlO
RCMll RCM12 RCM13 RCM14 RCM15 RCM4 RCM5 RCM6 RCM7 RCM8
RCM9 ROR RORANGRO RORCPDEP RORCRF RORDISK RORNC RORPDF
RORPPF SEXDIV SFl SFlO SFll SF12 SF13 SF14 SF15 SF2 SF3
SF4 SF5 SF6 SF7 SF8 SF9 SMl SMlO SMll SM12 SM13 SM14
SM15 SM2 SM3 SM4 SM5 SM6 SM7 SM8 SM9 SURINFF SURINFM TP
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EQUATIONS
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
National Variables
1: PR.DPIUS = IF YR LT 1982 THEN PR.DPIUl ELSE PR.DPIUS(-1)*
(l+GRDIRPU)
2: PDUSCPI = IF YR LT 1982 THEN PDUSCPil ELSE PDUSCPI{-1)*
{l+GRUSCPI)
3: WEUS = IF YR LT 1982 THEN WEUSl ELSE WEUS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRRWEUS)
4: PDRATIO = IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 1.296 ELSE {IF YR EQ 1981 THEN
1.266 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 1.262 ELSE (IF RTIS(-2)-RTIS(-1)
NE 0 AND RTIS(-2) EQ 0 THEN PDRATIO(-l)+C67A*(EMSP-EMSP{-l))/
EMSP(-l)+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EK98(-l)/(EK98-EMCNX1)))-C67C ELSE
PDRATIO(-l)+C67A*(EMSP-EKSP(-1))/EMSP(-l)+C67B*(EKCNRT/(EM98(-1)/
(EM98-EMCNX1))})})
Price Deflators
5: PDRPI = PDRATIO*PDUSCPI
6: PDEXOPS = WSGSFY(-1}/EXOPS(-l)*(WRGA*lOO/PWRBASE)+(EXOPS(-1)-
WSGSFY(-1))/EXOPS(-l)*PDRPI
7: PDCON = Cl07A+Cl07B*WRCNNP
Fiscal Module
State Revenues
8: RP7S --RPBS+RPRY+RSFDNPX
9: RP9S --RP7S+RPPS+RPTS+RTCSPX+RP9X
10: RP9SGF --RP9S-EXPF1*RP7S
11: RPBSGF --(1-EXPFl)*RPBS
12: RPRYGF --(1-EXPFl)*RPRY
13: RSFDNPXG == {1-EXPFl)*RSFDNPX
14: DF.RSVP = IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE DF.RSVP(-1)+RP9S*
(PDRPIBAS/PDRPI)*(ll(l+RORDISK)**(YR-1981))
15: LOG(FAGI) = C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNXl+EMP9)
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17:
LOG(FAGII) = C22A+C22B*LOG(PI)
COLA= (1-1/(1+PCOLART))*WSGC
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
18: AGI = FAGI+COLA-WSGM-PC12N*PC12RN*ANCSA*PCNC1
19: AEX*1000 = C10A+C10B*POPC+C10C*(EMCNX1+EMP9)
20: ATT = C28A+C28B*(EM99-EMGM)+C28C*EMCNX1
21: LOG(ATD/ATT) = C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72
22: VAEX = IF YR LT 1980 THEN VAEXl ELSE VAEX(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI)
23: ATI = AGI-AEX*VAEX-ATD
24: ATI.TT = ATI/ATT
25: LOG(RTISCA1) = C24A-TXBASE+C248*(1-TXRT)*LOG(ATI.TT)
26: LOG(RTISCA2) = C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT)
27: RTISCA == IF YR GT 1984 THEN (IF EXTRNS+EXTRNS(-1) EQ 0 THEN
EXRL5*(RTISCA1-TXCRPC*RTISCA1-TCRED/1000)ELSE 0) ELSE (IF YR LT
1979 THEN RTISCA1-TXCRPC*RTISCA1-TCRED/1000 ELSE 0)
28: RTISLOS == (RTISCA2-RTISCA)*ATT
29: RTISC = RTISCA*ATT
30: RTIS = IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISC(-1)+C25B*RTISC
31: RTISCP = C105A+C105B*PI8+C105C*RTISC
32: LOG(RTPIF/ATT) = C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+
RTISLOS/ATT)+C26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)
33: DPIRES = C27A+C27B*PI3+C27C*WSCNP
34: LOG(BL) = C39A+C39B*LOG(XX98-XXP9)
35: LOG(GR) = C40A+C40B*LOG(XX98)
36: RTBS1 == (BL+BL(-1))*1000/2*PBTRATE
37: GTR = GR-BL(-1)*PNTGR*1000
38: LOG(RTBS2*10**3/BL(-1)) = C29A+C29B*LOG(GTR(-1)*10**3/BL(-1))
39: RTBS == IF YR GE 1979 THEN RTBS1+RTBS2*PBLTBL ELSE RTBS1+RTBS2
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
40: LOG(RTCSl~lOO/PDRPI) = C43A+C43C~D64.65+C43B~LOG(EMP9(-1)+
EMCN(-l)+EMM9(-l)+EMT9(-l)+EMCM(-l)+EMPU(-1))
41: RTCS == RTCSl+RTCSPX+RTCSX
42: TPTV = C38A+C38B*POP
43: LOG(AHG) = C37A+C37B~LOG(PR.PI)
44: THG == AHG~TPTV
45: LOG(RTMF) = C46A+C46B~LOG(THG)
46: LOG(RTVS) = C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1))
47: LOG(RTAS) = C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPI(-1))
48: LOG(RTCIS) = C49A+C49B~LOG(R.DPI(-1))
49: RTSS = IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50B*(EM99-EMGM)
50: RTOTS = RTOTS(-l)~(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
51: RT99 == RTIS+RTCS+RPPS+RPTS+RP9X+RTBS+RTMF+RTAS+(l-PECIG)*
RTCIS+RTVS+RTSS+RTOTS
52: LOG(ROFAS) = C30A+C30B*LOG(TPTV(-1))
53: LOG(ROFOS) C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-1))
54: ROFTS == ROFAS+ROFOS
55: ROFERS = ROFERS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
56: LOG(RMIS) = C35A+C35B~LOG(PI3(-1))
57: RSIP == (ROR+GRUSCPI+RORPPF)~BALPF(-1)
58: RSIPGF == (1-EXPFBAK)*RSIP
59: RSID --(ROR+GRUSCPI-RORPDF)*BALDF(-1)
60: RSIG --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BALGF(-1)
61: RSIN --(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BAL99(-l)+RORPPF*BALPF(-1)-RORPDF*BALDF(-1)
62: RSIPNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-l)+RORPPF)*BALPF(-1)
63: RSIDNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1)-RORPDF)*BALDF(-1)
64: RSIGNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-l))~BALGF(-1)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
65: RSINNET == (ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1))*BAL99+RORPPF*
BALPF(-1)-RORPDF*BALDF(-1)
66: RSGFBM = RT99+(1-EXPF1)*RP7S+ROFTS+ROFERS+RSIG+(1-EXPFBAK)*
RSIP+RMIS+EXDFWITH
67: RSFDN =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 187.968 ELSE RSFDNX+RSFDN(-1)*
(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
68: RMISRES =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 16.739 ELSE RMISRES(-1)*
(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
69: RSGFRS == RSFDN+RMISRES
70: RSGF = RSGFBM+RSGFRS
71: R99S = RSGF+EXPF1*RP7S+EXPFBAK*RSIP+(RSID-EXDFWITH)-SANCSA
72: LOG(RSFFS) = CS8A+C58B*LOG(POP(-1))
73: RSFS1 = RSFS1(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
74: RSFS == PECIG*RTCIS+RSFFS+RSFS1
75: RSIAS = IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 31.12 ELSE RSIAS(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+
GRDIRPU)
76: R99SNT --R99S-EXPFCON
77: R99SON --R99S-RSFDN
78: NONPET --R99S-RP9S-RSIN
79: NONRP9S == R99S-RP9S
80: RSEN == R99S-(RP9S-SANCSA)-RSIN-RSFDN
81: RSENGF == RSGFBM-RP9SGF-RSIPGF-RSIG
82: EXPFCON = EXPFBAK*RSIP+EXPF1*RP7S+EXPFCONX
83: EXPFNEW == EXPF1*RP7S
84: EXPFREIN --EXPFBAK*RSIP
85: EXPFCON1 --EXPFCON-EXPFCONX
86: EXDFCON = IF RSGFBM GT EXGFBM THEN EXDF1*(RSGFBM-EXGFBM)+
(RSID-EXDFWITH) ELSE RSID-EXDFWITH
87: EXDFWITH = EXDFPCNT*RSIDNET
G-9
State Expenditures
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
88: EXLIM = IF YR EQ 1982 THEN EXLIM82 ELSE EXLIM82*
(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)*(POP/430)
89: EXLIMOK = IF YR LT 1985 THEN EXLIM ELSE (IF RSGFBM-EXDSS-EXTRNS+
BALGF(-1) GT EXLIM THEN EXLIM ELSE RSGFBM-EXDSS-EXTRNS)
90: RSGFGAP --EXLIM-EXLIMOK
91: EXSPLIT --IF YR LT 1985 THEN 0.67 ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 AND
RSGFGAP(-1) GT 0 THEN EXSPLITX ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 THEN
0.67+(EXSPLITX-0.67)/2 ELSE 0.67))
92: EXOPS = IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXOPSl ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIMOK*EXSPLIT+
EXINREC+RSFDN+RMISRES+RSFS+RSIAS)+EXRL1*(EXOPS(-1)*(1+(EXELl*(POP
(-l)/POP(-2)-l)+EXEL2*(PDEXOPS(-l)/PDEXOPS(-2)-l)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3
(-l)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*(PI(-l)/PI(-2)-l)+EXEL5*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-
1)+EXEL6*((POP(-l)-EMCNX1(-l))/(POP(-2)-EMCNX1(-2))-1)))+EXRLOP6*
BALGFCP(-l)*(BALGFP(-l)/EXGF(-l)))+EXRLOP7*(R99S(-l)-EXNOPS(-l)-
EXSAVS)+EXRLOP8*(R99S(-l)-EXNOPS(-l)-EXANSAV)+EXRL3*(l+GRRPCEX)*
(EXOPS(-l)/POP(-l)/PDEXOPS(-l)*POP*PDEXOPS)+EXRL2*EXOPS(-l)*
(l+GREXOPS)+EXRL4*(BASEXOPS+EXOPSIMP*(PDEXOPS*(POP-BASEPOP-
EXRL40P*(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX))))
93: EXANSAV = RP9S+RSIN-EXANNU*(l+RORANGRO)**(YR-1980)
94: EXSAVS = EXSAVX+EXPFCON+TXPTXX*RTISLOS
95: LOG(EXJUS4) = C20A+C20B*LOG(EXOPS)
96: LOG(EXPPS4) = C91A+C91B*LOG(EXOPS)
97: LOG(EXNRS4) = C93A+C93B*LOG(EXOPS)
98: LOG(EXHES4) = C94A+C94B*LOG(EXOPS)
99: LOG(EXSSS4) = C96A+C96B*LOG(EXOPS)
100: LOG(EXEDS4) = Cl9A+Cl9B*LOG(EXOPS)
101: LOG(EXCDS4) C97A+C97B*LOG(EXOPS)
102: LOG(EXTRS4) = C98A+C98B*LOG(EXOPS)
103: LOG(EXGGS4) = C99A+C99B*LOG(EXOPS)
104: RATIO! == EXOPS/(EXEDS4+EXSSS4+EXHES4+EXNRS4+EXPPS4+EXJUS4+
EXCDS4+RLTX+EXTRS4+EXGGS4)
105: EXUA =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 197.7 ELSE EXUA(-l)*(EXOPS/EXOPS(-1))
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EXEDS = RATI01*EXEDS4
EXSSS = RATIOl*EXSSS4
EXHES = RATI01*EXHES4
EXNRS = RAT!Ol*EXNRS4
EXPPS = RATI01*EXPPS4
EXJUS = RATIOl*EXJUS4
EXTRS = RATI01*EXTRS4
EXGGS = RATIOl*EXGGS4
EXCDS = RATI0l*(EXCDS4+RLTX)
RLTE99 = RLTE994*RATI01
EXEDSNT == EXEDS-RLTE99
RLTT9 = RLTT94*RATI01
RLTRS = RLTRS4*RATI01
EXCDSNT = EXCDS-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTX
EXPRCDS = C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
1983 May
EXPREDSl = ClA+ClB*EXEDSNT+ClC*D61.75*EXEDSNT
EXPRSSS = C2A+C2B*EXSSS
EXPRUA = C32A+C32B*EXUA
EXPRHES = C3A+C3B*EXHES
EXPRNRS = C4A+C4B*EXNRS
EXPRPPS = C5A+C5B*EXPPS
EXPRGGS = C8A+C8B*EXGGS
EXPRJUS = C6A+C6B*EXJUS
EXPRTRS = C9A+C9B*EXTRS
130: EXPR99 = EXPRPER*(EXPREDSl+EXPRSSS+EXPRHES+EXPRNRS+EXPRPPS+
EXPRJUS+(+EXPRCDS)+EXPRGGS+EXPRTRS+EXPRUA)
G-11
131: WSGSFY : PCWS1*EXPR99
132: LOG(WSGS) = C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
133: EXTRNS = IF YR LT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 425 ELSE
RSIP*(l-EXPFBAK)*EXPFDIST)
134: EXINREC = Cl7A+Cl7B*(EXOPS-RLT99)
135: EXSUBS = IF YR LT ·1988 THEN EXSUBS1 ELSE (IF EXRL5 EQ 1 THEN (IF
RSGFBM(-l)+RSGFBM(-2)-1 LT EXGFBM(-l)+EXGFBM(-2) OR EXSUBS(-1)
EQ 0 THEN 0 ELSE EXLIMOK*(0.5*(1-EXSPLIT)}) ELSE
EXSUBS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI))
136: EXCAP = IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCAPl ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIMOK*
(l-EXSPLIT)-EXSUBS}/(l-EXBOND)+EXRL3*((1+GRSSCP)*PR.BALCP(-l)*POP/
1000-R.BALCAP(-l)*(l/(l+RORCPDEP)})/(100/PDCON)+EXRL2*(EXCAP(-1)*
(l+GREXCAP})+EXRL4*(BASEXCAP+EXCAPIMP*(PDCON*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*
(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX))}}+EXRL1*(EXCAP(-l)*(l+EXEL1*(POP(-l}/POP(-2)-
l)+EXEL2*(PDCON(-l}/PDCON(-2)-l)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-l}/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+
EXEL4*(PI(-l)/PI(-2)-l)+EXELS*(PI3(-l}/PI3(-2)-l)+EXEL6*((POP(-1)-
EMCNX1(-1))/(POP(-2}-EMCNX1(-2))-1}))
137: EXGFCHY = IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCHYl ELSE 0.6*EXCAP*(l-EXBOND)
138: EXGFCNH = IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCNHl ELSE 0.4*EXCAP*(l-EXBOND)
139: EXCPSHY = IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSHYl ELSE 0.2S*EXCAP*EXBOND
140: EXCPSNH =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSNHl ELSE 0.7S*EXCAP*EXBOND
141: EXHYCAP --EXGFCHY+EXCPSHY
142: EXNHYCP --EXGFCNH+EXCPSNH
143: EXGFCAP --EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH
144: EXCAPFR = EXCAPFR(-l)*(EXCAP/EXCAP(-1))
145: EXCPS = EXCPSHY+EXCPSNH
146: XXVHY = C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1))
147: XXVNHY = C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(-l)+EXSPCAP(-1)-EXCAPFR(-2)+
EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP-EXCAPFR(-1)}
148: XXVACAP == (XXVHY+XXVNHY)/(PDCON/100)
149: EXDSS = IF YR LT 1983 THEN EXDSSX ELSE EXDSSX+RORCRF*DEBTP82(-1)
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HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
150: EXCPSFED = IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 105.021 ELSE EXCPSFED(-1)*
(1+GRUSCPI)
151: EXCPSGOB --EXCPS-EXCPSFED
152: EXCPSK = IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE EXCPSGOB
153: DEBTP82 = IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE
DEBTP82(-1)+EXCPSGOB-EXCPSK(-20)
154:
155:
156:
GODT = IF YR LT 1983 THEN GODTX ELSE GODTX+EXCPSK(-19)*0.05+
EXCPSK(-18)*0.1+EXCPSK(-17)*0.15+EXCPSK(-16)*0.2+EXCPSK(-15)*0.25+
EXCPSK(-14)*0.3+EXCPSK(-13)*0.35+EXCPSK(-12)*0.4+EXCPSK(-11)*0.45+
EXCPSK(-10)*0.5+EXCPSK(-9)*0.55+EXCPSK(-8)*0.6+EXCPSK(-7)*0.65+
EXCPSK(-6)*0.7+EXCPSK(-5)*0.75+EXCPSK(-4)*0.8+EXCPSK(-3)*0.85+
EXCPSK(-2)*0.9+EXCPSK(-1)*0.95+EXCPSGOB
EXGF = EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS-EXINREC+EXGFCAP-
RSFS-RSIAS
EX99S = EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS+EXCAP+PARNONGF*EXUA
157: EXGFBK = EXGF+EXPFCONX-RSFDN-RKISRES
158: EXNOPS = EX99S-EXOPS
159: EXBUD == EXOPS+EXDSS+PARNONGF*EXUA
160: EXGFOPER == EXGFBK-EXTRNS-EXGFCAP-EXSUBS-EXSPCAP-EXPFCONX
161: EXONTR --EXOPS+EXDSS-RLTE99-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTKS-RLTX
162: BALCAB --R99S-EXGF
163: BALCABBK == RSGFBK-EXGFBK
164: BAL99 = IF YR LT 1982 THEN BAL991 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 3612
ELSE BAL99(-1)+R99S-EXGF)
165: BALGF = IF YR LT 1982 THEN BALGF1 ELSE BAL99-BALPF-BALDF
166: BALDF = IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALDF1 ELSE BALDF(-1)+EXDFCON
167: BALPF = IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALPF1 ELSE BALPF(-1)+EXPFCON
168: BALGFP = IF BALGF LT 0 THEN 0 ELSE BALGF
169: BALGFCP = IF BALGF-BALGF(-1) GT 0 THEN BALGF-BALGF(-1) ELSE 0
170: R.BALCAP = R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(1+RORCPDEP))+EXCAP*100/PDCON
G-13
171: PR.BALCP = R.BALCAP~lOOO/POP
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
172: EXCAPREP == IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-l)+
EXCAPOLD~(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)
173: EXCAPNEW == IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXCAP-EXCAPREP
174: BALCAP84 = IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE BALCAP84(-l)*PDRPI/
PDRPI(-l)+EXCAPNEW
175: EXOM84 == BALCAP84(-l)~EXOMCOST
176: EXRP84 --RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-l)
Local Revenues
177: LOG(LPTBl) = C57A+C57B~LOG(PI3(-1))+C57C*D71.00
178: LPTB1FV == LPTB1*1/PARLVFV
179: PTBP9 == RPPS~(1/PTRTS)
180: LPTBP9 == P9PTPER~PTBP9
181: LPTB = LPTB1+LPTBP9*LPTRAT
182: LPTBFV == LPTB1FV+LPTBP9
183: PPVAL == LPTB1FV+PTBP9
184: RLPT1 = C18A+C18B*LPTB
185: RLPT == RLPT1+RLPTX
186: LOG(RLOT~1000/POP{-1)) = C31A+C31B~LOG{PI{-1)~1000/POP(-1))
187: RLTCS4 = IF YR GT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE PESLTC~RTCS1
188: RLTVS4 = C63A+C63B*RTVS
189: RLTOT4 == PESLT~RTOTS
190: RLTMA4 = IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE
RLTMA(-1)/PDRPI(-1)/POP(-1)~POP*PDRPI
191: RLTT94 RLTVS4+RLTOT4+RLTCS4+RLTMA4
192: RLTRS4 RLTRS(-1)~(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 198~
193: RLTMS = IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 50.887 ELSE {IF EXSUBS EQ 0 THEN 0
ELSE RLTMS{-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU))
194: RLTEC4 --PECIG*RTCIS
195: ADMDIS --PADl*POPSKUL{-1)
196: ADMREA --PAD2*POPSKUL{-1)
197: ADMSD = ADKDIS+ADMREA
198: BIU = IF YR LT 1980 THEN BIUl ELSE BIU{-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)
199: RLTEF4 = C36A+C36F*D81.00+D7l.OO*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD
200: RLTET4 = (POP/POP(-l)+PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-l)*RLTET{-1)
201: RLTE04 = RLTEO(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
202: RLTEA4 == RLTEC4+RLTEF4+RLTET4+RLTE04
203: RLTEB4 =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 7.5 ELSE
RLTEB(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
204: RLTE994 = RLTEA4+RLTEB4
205: RLTCS = RLTCS4*RATI01
206: RLTVS --RLTVS4*RATI01
207: RLTOT --RLTOT4*RATI01
208: RLTMA = RLTMA4*RATI01
209: RLTEC --RLTEC4*RATI01
210: RLTEF --RLTEF4*RATI01
211: RLTET = RLTET4*RATI01
212: RLTEO = RLTE04*RATI01
213: RLTEA == RLTEA4*RATI01
214: RLTEB RLTEB4*RATI01
215: RLT99 = RLTT9+RLTRS+RLTE99+RLTMS+RLTX
G-15
Local Expenditures
216: ELEDl = CilA+CllB*PI3(-l)
217: ELED = RLTE99+ELED1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
218: ELBD = Cl4A+Cl4C*D61.77*GOBONDL(-l)+Cl4B*GOBONDL(-l)
219: ELNEDl/PDRPI = Cl6A+Cl6E*D81.00+Cl6D*R.DPI8N(-l)+
Cl6B*D7l.OO*R.DPI8N(-l)+Cl6C*WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l)
220: EL99 = ELED+ELNEDl+ELBD+RLTX+RLTFPX+RLTMS
221: RLTF = RLTF(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
222: RL991 == RLPT+RLOT+RLT99+RLTF+RLTFPX
223: RLMC = EL99-RL991-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-l))
224: RL99 == RL99l+RLMC
225: ELEDCP = Cl5A+Cl5B*ELED
226: ELPERS = Cl2A+Cl2B*(EL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
227: WSGL = Cl3A+PC13C*D81.00+Cl3B*(ELPERS+ELPERS(-l))
228: GOBONDL = GOBONDL(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
229: SLGEXP == EX99S+EL99-RLT99
230: BALOCAL == RL99-(EL99-ELBD)
231: BALLANDS == BALOCAL+BALCAB
Economic Module
Personal Income
232: PIDIR = C51A+C51B*(DPI+DPI(-l)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPI(-4))
233: PITRANl = IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 500.245 ELSE PITRANl(-1)/
POPGER(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)*POPGER
234: PITRAN/PDRPI = IF YR GT 1980 THEN PITRANl/PDRPI+EXTRNS/PDRPI
ELSE C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI
235: PIOLI = C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-l)
236: PISSC = Cl06A+Cl06B*(WS98-WSCNP)
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Kay 1983
237: PIPR01*100/PDRPI = C45A+C45B*EKPR01+C45C*D61.66+C45D*D79
238: PIPROF = EKPROFIS*(4.523*(PDRPI/340))
239: PIPRO == PIPR01+PIPROF
240: PI8 = WS98+PIOLI+PIPRO-PISSC+PIDIR+PITRAN
241: NCCI = PC12N*(1-PCNC1)*ANCSA+(1-PCNC2)*NCRP+(1-PCNC3)*
RORNC*NCCAP(-1)
242: NCCAP = PCNCSV*NCCI+NCCAP(-1)+PCNCSV1*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP
243: NCEXP == (1-PCNCSV)*NCCI+(1-PCNCSV1)*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP
244: NCWS == PCNCWS*NCEXP
245: NCPI = PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA+PC12RN*PCNC2*NCRP+PC12RN*
PCNC3*RORNC*NCCAP(-1)+PC12RN*PCNC4*NCBP
246: PIRADJ*100/PDRPI = C103A+C103B*EKCNX1+C103C*EK97
247: PI = PI8-PIRADJ
248: PI3 = PI-PI/WS98*WRCNP*EMCNX1/1000
249: R.PI --PI*100./PDRPI
250: P.PI --PI*1000./POP
251: PR.PI3 = PI3*100/PDRPI*1000/(POP-EKCNX1)
252: PR.PI = R.PI*1000./POP
253: WEALTH= (PR.PI+PR.PI(-1)+PR.PI(-2)+PR.PI(-3))/4
254: DPI = PI-RTPIF-RTISCP-DPIRES+RTISXX
255: DPI8 = DPI+PIRADJ
256: R.DPI = 100.*DPI/PDRPI
257: PR.DPI == R.DPI*1000/POP
258: R.DPI8N DPI8*100/PDRPI-R.DPI8X
259: R.DPI8X = DPI8/PI8*WRCNP*EKCNX1/10/PDRPI
G-17
Sectoral Activity
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
260: EMCNRT = IF EMCNXl/4 LT EMCNX1(-l) THEN 0 ELSE EMCNX1/
(EM98-EMCNX1)
261: PIPE == IF EMCNX1-EMCNX1(~1) GT 5 THEN 1 ELSE 0
262: XXCN8 = C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54C*R.DPI8X+C54D*R.DPI8X(-1)+
C54E*D64.65
263: XXCN1 = XXCN8+XXVACAP
264: LOG(EMCN1) = C56A+C56B*LOG(XXCN1)
265: EMCNX = EMCNX1+EMCNX2
266: EMCN = EMCN1+EMCNX
267: XXCN = EMCN/EMCN1*XXCN1
268: LOG(WRCNNP/PDRPI) =
C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C59C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+
C59D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-l))+C59E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
269: WRCNP = WRCNNP*PIPADJ
270: WSCN = (EMCN1+EMCNX2)*WRCNNP/1000+EMCNX1*WRCNP/1000
271: WRCN = WSCN/EMCN*1000
272: WSCNP = EMCNX1*WRCNP/1000
273: LOG(XXP9) = C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9)
274: LOG(WRP9/PDRPI) = C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D*D61.76+C53B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)
275: WSP9 == EMP9*WRP9/1000
276: EMMO = C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77
277: EMM91 = EMMO+EMKX2
278: LOG(XXM91) = C61A+C61B*LOG(EMM91)
279: XXM9 == XXM91+XXMX2
280: EMMX == EMMX1+EMMX2
281: EMM9 = EMMO+EMKX
G-18
-
-
~.
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
'T MAP Documentation
May 1983
I"""
'
-
282: LOG(WRM91/PDRPI) : C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C62C*LOG( 1+EMCNRT) +C62D*LOG( 1+EMCNRT( -1)_)
283: WRM9P :: WRM91*PADJ
284: WSM9 := (EMMO+EMHX2)*WRM91/1000+EMMX1*WRM9P/1000
285: WSM9P :: EMMX1*WRM9P/1000
286: WRM9 =: WSM9/EMM9*1000
287: XXTNT = C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-1)+C64C*
R.DPI8N+C64E*D71.73
288: LOG(EMTNT) = C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT)
289: EMTTOUR = PTOURT*EMTOUR
290: EMT91 = EMTNT+EMTTOUR
291: EMT9 = EMT91+EMT9X
292: XXT9 = XXTNT*(EMT9/EMTNT)
293: LOG(WRT9/PDRPI) = C66A+C66F*D.80DEC6+C66D*D61.76+C66B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C66E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))
294: WST9 == EMT9*WRT9/1000.
295: XXCM = C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
296: LOG(EMCM) : C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCM)
297: LOG(WRCM/PDRPI) = C70A+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C70C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))+C70D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1))
298: WSCM == EMCM*WRCM/1000.
299: XXPU = C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+C72D*R.DPI8N(-2)
300: LOG(EMPU) = C73A+C73C*PIPE(-1)+C73B*LOG(XXPU)
301: LOG(WRPU/PDRPI) = C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C74C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))+C74D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))
302: WSPU == EMPU*WRPU/1000.
303: XXDW = C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-1)*
R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-l)*POP(-1)
304: XXDRNT = C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8N(-1)+
C76E*R.DPI8X(-1)
G-19
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
"""'
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
305: LOG(EMDW) = C77A+C77B*LOG(XXDW)
306: LOG(EMDRNT) = C75A+C75B*LOG(XXDRNT)
307: EMDR = EMDRNT+EMDTOUR
308: LOG(WRDW/PDRPI) = C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C78C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+C78E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
309: LOG(WRDR/PDRPI) = C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
(+C79D)*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+C79E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
310: EMDTOUR = PTOURD*EMTOUR
311: EMD9 = EMDRNT+EMDW+EMDTOUR
312: WSD9 == (EMDRNT+EMDTOUR)*WRDR/1000+EMDW*WRDW/1000
313: WRD9 = WSD9/EMD9*1000
314: XXD9 = (XXDW+XXDRNT}/(EMDW+EMDRNT)*EMD9
315: XXDR = XXD9-XXDW
316: XXFI = C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
317: LOG(EMFI) = C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI)
318: LOG(WRFI/PDRPI) = C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C82D*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))
319: WSFI == EMFI*WRFI/1000.
320: XXS8NT = C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8X(-1)+C84D*
WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
321: XXSB = C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-1)+C83E*
WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
322: LOG(EMS8NT) = C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT)
323: LOG(EMSB) = C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB)
324: LOG(WRSNB/PDRPI) = C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C86C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C86D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+C86E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2))
325: LOG(WRSB/PDRPI) = C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88E*D61.70+C88B*LOG(WEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C88D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+C88G*LOG
(1+EMCNRT(-2))
G-20
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-
....
-
-
326: EMSTOUR = PTOURS*EMTOUR
327: EMS91 = EHSB+EMS8NT+EMSTOUR
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
328: WSS91 == (EMS8NT+EMSTOUR)*WRSNB/1000+EMSB*WRSB/1000
329: WSS9 == WSS91+NCWS
330: EMS9 = EMS91+NCWS/(WRS9*1000)
331: WRS9 = WSS91/EMS91*1000
332: XXS9 = (XXS8NT+XXSB)/(EMS8NT+EMSB)*EMS9
333: EMGF = EMGM+EMGC
334: LOG(XXGF) = C101A+C101B*LOG(EMGF)
335: LOG(WRGC/PDRPI) = C89A+LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
336: WRGM = WRGC*PCIVPY
337: WSGC = WRGC*EMGC/1000
338: WSGM = WRGM*EMGM/1000
339: WSGF == WSGC+WSGM
340: WRGF = WSGF/EMGF*1000
341: LOG(WRGS/PDRPI) = IF C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C92C*D61.73 LT LOG(WRGS(-1)/PDRPI(-1)) THEN
LOG(WRGS(-1)/PDRPI(-1)) ELSE C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C92C*D61.73
342: EMGS = WSGS/WRGS*1000
343: LOG(WRGL/PDRPI) = IF C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69+C102C*
LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI) LT LOG(WRGL(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
THEN LOG(WRGL(-1)/PDRPI(-1)) ELSE C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*
D61.69+C102C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
344: EMGL = WSGL/WRGL*1000
345: EMGA = EMGS+EMGL
346: WSGA = WSGS+WSGL
347: WRGA = WSGA/EMGA*1000
348: LOG(XXGA) = C104A+C104B*LOG(EMGA)
G-21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
349: EMA9: EMAFISH+EMAGRI+PC39A*D77.00+PC39B*EMMX2
350: XXA9 : C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS)
351: LOG(WRA9/PDRPI) : C95A+C95F*D.80DEC6+C95B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C95C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C95D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))
352: WSA9 =: EMA9*WRA9/1000.
353: EM98 = EMP9+EMCN+EMM9+EMT9+EMCM+EMPU+EMD9+EMFI+EMS9+
EMGF+EMGA+EMA9
354: EM9Z : EM98-EMGM
355: WS98 : (WRP9*EMP9+WRCN*EMCN+WRM9*EKM9+WRT9*EMT9+WRCM*
EMCM+WRPU*EMPU+WRD9*EMD9+WRFI*EMFI+WRS9*EMS9+WRGF*
EMGF+WRGA*EMGA+WRA9*EMA9)/1000.
356: WS97 : WS98-WSGM
357: WR98 = WS98*1000/EM98
358: WR97 :: WS97*1000/EM97
3 59: LOG ( EMPROl) : C100A+c'100C*D61. 66+C100B*LOG ( EM98)
360: EMPROFIS = PFISHl*EMFISH
361: EMAFISH = (l-PFISH1)*EMFISH
362: EMPRO = EMPR01+EMPROFIS
363: EM99 --EM98+EMPRO
364: EM96 : EM99-EMGM
365: EMX = EMCNX+EMP9
366: EMOCSX == EMP9+EMT9X+EMCNX1+EMCNX2+EMMX1
367: EMCU --EMCM+EMPU
368: WRCU --(WSCM+WSPU)/EMCU*lOOO
369: EMNC --EMS9-EMS91
370: EMTCU : EMT9+EMCM+EMPU
371: EMSUP = EMD9+EMFI+EMS9
372: EMSP = EMTCU+EMSUP
G-22
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....
"""l
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I
! !
~ I
373: EMG9 --EMGF+EMGA
374: EMNR --EM99-EMSP-EMG9-EMCN-EMP9
375: EMNS --EM99-EMSP-EMG9
376: ~OG(EMTOUR) = PTOURB+PTOURE*LOG(TOURIST)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
377: XX98 = XXP9+XXCN+XXM9+XXT9+XXCM+XXPU+XXD9+XXFI+XXS9+
XXGF+XXGA+XXA9
Population Module
Civilian Non-Native Population
378: CM2 --G2*SM2*CNNPM2(-1)+(1-G1)*CNNPM1(-1)*SM1
379: CF2 --G2*SF2*CNNPF2(-1)+(1-G1)*CNNPF1(-1)*SF1
380: CM3 --G3*SM3*CNNPM3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPM2(-1)*SM2
381: CF3 --G3*SF3*CNNPF3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPF2(-1)*SF2
382: CM4 --G4*SM4*CNNPM4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPM3(-1)*SM3
383: CF4 --G4*SF4*CNNPF4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPF3(-l)*SF3
384: CM5 --G5*SM5*CNNPM5(-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPM4(-1)*SM4
385: CF5 --G5*SF5*CNNPF5(-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPF4(-1)*SF4
386: CM6 --G6*SM6*CNNPM6(-1)+(1-G5)*CNNPM5(-l)*SM5
387: CF6 --G6*SF6*CNNPF6(-1)+(1-G5)*CNNPF5(-l)*SF5
388: CM7 --G7*SM7*CNNPM7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPM6(-1)*SM6
389: CF7 --G7*SF7*CNNPF7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPF6(-1)*SF6
390: CM8 --G8*SM8*CNNPM8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPM7(-1)*SM7
391: CF8 --G8*SF8*CNNPF8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPF7(-1)*SF7
392: CM9 == G9*SM9*CNNPM9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPM8(-l)*SM8
393: CF9 == G9*SF9*CNNPF9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPF8(-1)*SF8
394: CM10 --GlO*SM10*CNNPM10(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPM9(-1)*SM9
395: CF10 G10*SF10*CNNPF10(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPF9(-1)*SF9
G-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
396: CMll --G11*SM11*CNNPM11(-1)+(1-G10)*CNNPM10(-1)*SM10
397: CFll --G11*SF11*CNNPF11(-1)+(1-G10)*CNNPF10(-1)*SF10
398: CM12 --G12*SM12*CNNPM12(-1)+(1-Gll)*CNNPM11(-1)*SM11
399: CF12 --G12*SF12*CNNPF12(-1)+(l-G11)*CNNPF11(-1)*SF11
400: CM13 --G13*SM13*CNNPM13(-1)+(1-G12)*CNNPM12(-1)*SM12
401: CF13 --G13*SF13*CNNPF13(-1)+(1-G12)*CNNPF12(-1)*SF12
402: CM14 --G14*SM14*CNNPM14(-1)+(1-G13)*CNNPM13(-1)*SM13
403: CF14 --G14*SF14*CNNPF14(-1)+(1-G13)*CNNPF13(-1)*SF13
404: CM15 --G1S*SM1S*CNNPM15(-1)+(1-G14)*CNNPM14(-1)*SM14
405: CF15 --G15*SF1S*CNNPF15(-1)+(1-G14)*CNNPF14(-1)*SF14
406: BTHTOT == CF4*FERT4+CF5*FERT5+CF6*FERT6+CF7*FERT7+CF8*FERT8+
CF9*FERT9+CF10*FERT10+CF11*FERT11-BADD
407: CM1 --SEXDIV*BTHTOT*SURINFM
408: CF1 --(1-SEXDIV)*BTHTOT*SURINFF
409: DTHINF --BTHTOT-CM1-CF1
410: DTHTOT --DTHINF+CM15(-1)*(1-SM15)+CF15(-1)*(1-SF15)+CM14(-1)*
(1-SM14)+CF14(-1)*(1-SF14)+CM13(-1)*(1-SM13)+CF13(-1)*(1-SF13)+
CM12(-1)*(1-SM12)+CF12(-1)*(1-SF12)+CK11(-1)*(1-SM11)+CF11(-1)*
(1-SF11)+CM10(-1)*(1-SM10)+CF10(-1)*(1-SF10)+CM9(-1)*(1-SM9)+
CF9(-1)*(1-SF9)+CM8(-1)*(1-SM8)+CF8(-1)*(1-SF8)+CM7(-1)*(1-SM7)+
CF7(-1)*(1-SF7)+CM6(-1)*(1-SM6)+CF6(-1)*(1-SF6)+CMS(-1)*(1-SM5)+
CFS(-1)*(1-SFS)+CM4(-1)*(1-SM4)+CF4(-1)*(1-SF4)+CM3(-1)*(1-SM3)+
CF3(-1)*(1-SF3)+CM2(-1)*(1-SM2)+CF2(-1)*(1-SF2)+CM1(-1)*(1-SM1)+
CF1 ( -1) * {1-SF1)
411: NATINC === BTHTOT-DTHTOT
412: CNNPM10 ::: CM10*(1+0EMM10)+MIGIN*MM10
413: CNNPFlO = CF10*(1+0EMF10)+MIGIN*MF10
414: CNNPMll = CM11*(1+0EMM11)+MIGIN*MM11
415: CNNPFll = CF11*(1+0EMF11)+MIGIN*MF11
416: CNNPM12 = CM12*(1+0EMM12)+MIGIN*MM12
G-24
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-
"""
-
-
.~
,'1
""'1
-
-
~'
-
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1'"'1" 417: CNNPF12 = CF12*(1+0EMF12)+MIGIN*MF12
418: CNNPM13 = CM13*(1+0EMM13)+MIGIN*MM13
419: CNNPF13 = CF13*(1+0EMF13)+MIGIN*MF13
~ 420: CNNPM14 = CM14*(1+0EMM14)+MIGIN*MM14
I
' i I 421: CNNPF14 = CF14*(1+0EMF14)+MIGIN*MF14
422: CNNPM15 = CM15*(1+0EMM15)+MIGIN*MM15
423: CNNPF15 = CF15*(1+0EMF15)+MIGIN*MF15
424: CNNPM1 = CM1*(1+0EMM1)+MIGIN*MM1
425: CNNPFl = CF1*(1+0EMF1)+MIGIN*MF1
426: CNNPM2 = CM2*(1+0EMM2)+MIGIN*MM2
427: CNNPF2 = CF2*(1+0EMF2)+MIGIN*MF2
428: CNNPM3 = CM3*(1+0EMM3)+MIGIN*MM3
429: CNNPF3 = CF3*(1+0EMF3)+MIGIN*MF3
-430: CNNPM4 = CM4*(1+0EMM4)+MIGIN*MM4
431: CNNPF4 = CF4*(1+0EMF4)+MIGIN*MF4
432: CNNPM5 = CM5*(1+0EMM5)+MIGIN*MM5
433: CNNPF5 = CF5*(1+0EMF5)+MIGIN*MF5
f""'
434: CNNPM6 = CM6*(1+0EMM6)+MIGIN*MM6
435: CNNPF6 = CF6*(1+0EMF6)+MIGIN*MF6
436: CNNPM7 = CM7*(1+0EMM7)+MIGIN*MM7
~,.. 437: CNNPF7 = CF7*(1+0EMF7)+MIGIN*MF7
438: CNNPM8 CM8*(1+0EMM8)+MIGIN*MM8
~
I' 'I 439: CNNPF8 = CF8*(1+0EMF8)+MIGIN*MF8
I!
440: CNNPM9 = CM9*(1+0EMM9)+MIGIN*MM9
441: CNNPF9 = CF9*(1+0EMF9)+MIGIN*MF9
,"'""
G-25
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
442: CNNTOT :;:::: CNNPM15+CNNPF15+CNNPM14+CNNPF14+CNNPK13+CNNPF13+
CNNPK12+CNNPF12+CNNPMll+CNNPFll+CNNPK10+CNNPF10+CNNPM9+CNNPF9+
CNNPM8+CNNPF8+CNNPM7+CNNPF7+CNNPM6+CNNPF6+CNNPM5+CNNPF5+CNNPM4+
CNNPF4+CNNPM3+CNNPF3+CNNPM2+CNNPF2+CNNPMl+CNNPF1
Native Population
443: NCM2 --G2~NSM2~NATPM2(-1)+(1-G1)~NATPM1(-1)~NSM1
444: NCF2 --G2~NSF2*NATPF2(-l)+(l-Gl)~NATPF1(-l)*NSF1
445: NCM3 --G3~NSM3*NATPM3(-1)+(1-G2)~NATPM2(-l)*NSM2
446: NCF3 == G3*NSF3*NATPF3(-l)+(l-G2)*NATPF2(-l)~NSF2
447: NCM4 --G4*NSM4*NATPM4(-1)+(1-G3)*NATPM3(-1)*NSM3
448: NCF4 == G4*NSF4*NATPF4(-l)+(l-G3)*NATPF3(-l)~NSF3
4119: NCM5 --G5*NSM5*NATPM5(-1)+(1-G4)*NATPM4(-l)*NSM4
450: NCF5 --G5*NSF5*NATPF5(-l)+(l-G4)*NATPF4(-l)*NSF4
451: NCM6 --G6~NSM6*NATPM6(-1)+(1-G5)*NATPM5(-1)*NSM5
452: NCF6 --G6*NSF6*NATPF6(-1)+(1-G5)*NATPF5(-l)*NSF5
453: NCM7 --G7~NSM7*NATPM7(-1)+(1-G6)*NATPK6(-1)*NSM6
454: NCF7 --G7*NSF7*NATPF7(-l)+(l-G6)*NATPF6(-l)*NSF6
455: NCM8 --G8~NSM8*NATPM8(-l)+(l-G7)*NATPM7(-1)*NSM7
456: NCF8 --G8*NSF8*NATPF8(-1)+(1-G7)*NATPF7(-l)*NSF7
457: NCM9 --G9~NSM9*NATPM9(-1)+(1-G8)*NATPM8(-1)*NSM8
458: NCF9 :;::: G9*NSF9*NATPF9(-1)+(1-G8)*NATPF8(-1)*NSF8
459: NCMlO == G10*NSM10~NATPM10(-1)+(1-G9}*NATPM9(-l)*NSM9
460: NCFlO --Gl~*NSF10*NATPF10(-1)+(1-G9}*NATPF9(-1)*NSF9
461: NCMll --G1l*NSM11~NATPM11(-1)+(1-G10)*NATPM10(-l)*NSM10
462: NCF11 --G11*NSF11*NATPF11(-1)+(1-G10)*NATPF10(-l)*NSF10
463: NCM12 --G12*NSM12~NATPM12(-1)+(1-G11)*NATPM11(-l)*NSM11
464: NCF12 === G12*NSF12*NATPF12(-1)+(1-G11}*NATPF11(-l)~NSF11
G-26
..,
:1
'
l""i
~
!Mj.
.,..
465: NCM13
466: NCF13
467: NCM14
468: NCF14
469: NCM15
470: NCF15
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
== Gl3*NSM13*NATPM13(-l)+(l-Gl2)*NATPM12(-l)*NSM12
== Gl3*NSF13*NATPF13(-l)+(l-Gl2)*NATPF12(-l)*NSF12
--Gl4*NSM14*NATPM14(-l)+(l-Gl3)*NATPM13(-l)*NSK13
--Gl4*NSF14*NATPF14(-l)+(l-Gl3)*NATPF13(-l)*NSF13
--Gl5*NSM15*NATPM15(-l)+(l-Gl4)*NATPM14(-l)*NSM14
--Gl5*NSF15*NATPF15(-l)+(l-Gl4)*NATPF14(-l)*NSF14
471: NBTHTOT == NCF4*NFERT4+NCF5*NFERT5+NCF6*NFERT6+NCF7*NFERT7+
NCF8*NFERT8+NCF9*NFERT9+NCFlO*NFERT10+NCFll*NFERTll+BADD
472: NCMl --NSEXDIV*NBTHTOT*NSURINFM
473: NCFl --(1-NSEXDIV)*NBTHTOT*NSURINFF
474: NATPMl = NCMl*(l+NMMl)
475: NATPFl = NCFl*(l+NMFl)
476: NATPM2 = NCM2*(l+NMM2)
477: NATPF2 ::: NCF2*(l+NMF2)
478: NATPM3 = NCM3*(l+NMM3)
479: NATPF3 = NCF3*(l+NMF3)
480: NATPM4 = NCM4*(l+NMM4)
481: NATPF4 = NCF4*(l+NKF4)
482: NATPM5 ::; NCM5*(l+NMM5)
483: NATPFS = NCF5*(l+NMF5)
484: NATPM6 NCM6*(l+NMM6)
485: NATPF6 ::; NCF6*(l+NKF6)
486: NATPM7 == NCM7*(l+NMM7)
487: NATPF7 ::; NCF7*(l+NMF7)
488: NATPM8 NCM8*(l+NMM8)
489: NATPF8 == NCF8*(l+NMF8)
G-27
490: NATPM9
491: NATPF9
492: NATPMlO
493: NATPFlO
494: NATPMll
495: NATPFll
496: NATPM12
497: NATPF12
498: NATPM13
499: NATPF13
500: NATPM14
501: NATPF14
502: NATPM15
503: NATPF15
504: NDTHINF
== NCM9* (l+NMM9)
:;:: NCF9.:1t(l+NMF9)
== NCMlO*(l+NMMlO)
:;:: NCF10*(l+NMF10)
= NCMll* ( l+NMMll)
== NCFll:IIC(l+NMFll)
= NCM12:IIC(l+NMM12)
== NCF12*(l+NMF12)
= NCM13lit(l+NMM13)
= NCF13:IIC(l+NMF13)
== NCM14*(1+NMM14)
= NCF14*(1+NMF14)
:;:: NCM15*(1+NMM15)
= NCF15:11C(l+NMF15)
== NBTHTOT-NCMl-NCFl
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
505: NDTHTOT == NDTHINF+NCM15(-l)*(l-NSM15)+NCF15(-1)*(1-NSF15)+
NCM14(-1)*(1-NSM14)+NCF14(-l)*(l-NSF14)+NCM13(-l):IIC(l-NSM13)+
NCF13(-1)*(1-NSF13)+NCM12(-l):IIC(l-NSM12)+NCF12(-l):IIC(l-NSF12)+
NCMll(-1)*(1-NSMll)+NCFll(-1)*(1-NSFll)+NCKlO(-l):IIC(l-NSMlO)+
NCF10(-l):IIC(l-NSF10)+NCM9(-l):IIC(l-NSM9)+NCF9(-1)*(1-NSF9)+
NCM8(-l)*(l-NSM8)+NCF8(-l):IIC(l-NSF8)+NCM7(-1)*(1-NSM7)+NCF7(-1)*
(1-NSF7)+NCM6(-1)*(1-NSM6)+NCF6(-l)*(l-NSF6)+NCMS(-l):IIC(l-NSM5)+
NCF5(-1):11C(l-NSF5)+NCM4(-l):IIC(l-NSM4)+NCF4(-l):IIC(l-NSF4)+NCM3(-1)*
(l-NSM3)+NCF3(-l)*(l-NSF3)+NCM2(-l):IIC(.l-NSM2)+NCF2(-1)*(1-NSF2)+
NCMl(-1)*(1-NSMl)+NCFl(-1)*(1-NSFl)
506: NATTOT :;::= NATPM15+NATPF15+NATPM14+NATPF14+NATPM13+NATPF13+
NATPM12+NATPF12+NATPMll+NATPFll+NATPM10+NATPF10+NATPM9+NATPF9+
NATPM8+NATPF8+NATPM7+NATPF7+NATPM6+NATPF6+NATPK5+NATPF5+NATPM4+
NATPF4+NATPM3+NATPF3+NATPK2+NATPF2+NATPMl+NATPF1
507: POPNE = POPNE(-l).:ltNATTOT/NATTOT(-1)
508: NNATINC == NBTHTOT-NDTHTOT
G-28
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HAP Documentation
Kay 1983
509: KIGOUT ~ OEKK1*CK1+0EKK2*CK2+0EKK3*CK3+0EKK4*CK4+0EKK5*CK5+
OEKK6*CK6+0EKK7*CK7+0EKK8*CK8+0EKK9*CK9+0EKK10*CK10+0EKK11*
CK11+0EKK12*CK12+0EKK13*CK13+0EKK14*CK14+0EKK15*CK15+0EKF1*
CF1+0EKF2*CF2+0EKF3*CF3+0EKF4*CF4+0EKF5*CF5+0EKF6*CF6+0EKF7*
CF7+0EKF8*CF8+0EKF9*CF9+0EKF10*CF10+0EKF11*CF11+0EKF12*CF12+
OEKF13*CF13+0EKF14*CF14+0EKF15*CF15+NKK1*NCK1+NKK2*NCK2+NKK3*
NCK3+NKK4*NCK4+NKK5*NCK5+NKK6*NCK6+NKK7*NCK7+NKK8*NCM8+NKK9*
NCK9+NKK10*NCK10+NKK11*NCK11+NKK12*NCK12+NKK13*NCK13+NKK14*
NCK14+NKK15*NCK15+NKF1*NCF1+NKF2*NCF2+NKF3*NCF3+NMF4*NCF4+
NMF5*NCF5+NKF6*NCF6+NKF7*NCF7+NKF8*NCF8+NKF9*NCF9+NKF10*NCF10+
NMF11*NCF11+NKF12*NCF12+NKF13*NCF13+NKF14*NCF14+NMF15*NCF15
510: KIGIN = POPKIG-KIGOUT
511: POPK = EKGK/KILRAT
512: KILPCT = POPK/AFTOT
513: POP = CNNTOT+NATTOT+KILPCT*(AFTOT+KDTOT)
514: POPC = POP-POPK
Kili tary Population
515: POPM1 --CNNPK1+KILPCT*KILK1+NATPK1
516: POPK2 --CNNPK2+KILPCT*KILK2+NATPK2
517: POPM3 --CNNPK3+KILPCT*KILK3+NATPM3
518: POPK4 --CNNPK4+KILPCT*KILK4+NATPM4
519: POPK5 --CNNPK5+KILPCT*KILK5+NATPK5
520: POPK6 --CNNPK6+KILPCT*KILK6+NATPK6
521: POPK7 --CNNPK7+KILPCT*KILK7+NATPK7
522: POPK8 --CNNPK8+KILPCT*KILK8+NATPK8
523: POPK9 --CNNPK9+KILPCT*KILK9+NATPK9
524: POPK10 == CNNPK10+KILPCT*KILK10+NATPK10
525: POPKll --CNNPK11+MILPCT*KILK11+NATPK11
526: POPK12 --CNNPK12+KILPCT*KILK12+NATPK12
527: POPK13 --CNNPK13+KILPCT*KILK13+NATPK13
G-29
528: POPM14 --CNNPM14+MILPCT*MILM14+NATPM14
529: POPM15 --CNNPM15+MILPCT*MILM15+NATPM15
530: POPFl --CNNPF1+MILPCT*MILF1+NATPF1
531: POPF2 --CNNPF2+MILPCT*MILF2+NATPF2
532: POPF3 --CNNPF3+MILPCT*MILF3+NATPF3
533: POPF4 --CNNPF4+MILPCT*MILF4+NATPF4
534: POPF5 --CNNPF5+MILPCT*MILF5+NATPF5
535: POPF6 --CNNPF6+MILPCT*MILF6+NATPF6
536: POPF7 --CNNPF7+MILPCT*MILF7+NATPF7
537: POPF8 --CNNPF8+MILPCT*MILF8+NATPF8
538: POPF9 --CNNPF9+MILPCT*MILF9+NATPF9
539: POPF10 --CNNPF10+MILPCT*MILF10+NATPF10
540: POPFll --CNNPF11+MILPCT*MILF11+NATPF11
541: POPF12 --CNNPF12+MILPCT*MILF12+NATPF12
542: POPF13 --CNNPF13+MILPCT*MILF13+NATPF13
543: POPF14 --CNNPF14+MILPCT*MILF14+NATPF14
544: POPF15 ;= CNNPF15+MILPCT*MILF15+NATPF15
545: BTOT --BTHTOT+NBTHTOT
546: DTOT --DTHTOT+NDTHTOT
547: POPNI9 == BTOT-DTOT
548: NCBR --NBTHTOT/NATTOT*1000
549: NCDR --NDTHTOT/NATTOT*1000
550: CBR --BTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000
551: CDR --DTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000
552: BCRUDE --BTOT/{CNNTOT+NATTOT}*1000
553: DC RUDE --DTOT/(CNNTOT+NATTOT)*1000
G-30
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
554: POPSKUL --POPK3+POPK4+POPK5+POPF3+POPF4+POPF5
555: POPKIDS --POPSKUL+POPMl+POPM2+POPFl+POPF2-POPM5-POPF5
556:
557:
558:
559:
560:
561:
562:
563:
564:
565:
566:
POPGER = POPK15+POPF15
POP ADS --POP-POPKIDS-POPGER
POP.AD --POP ADS/POP
POP.KID --POPKIDS/POP
POP.GER --POPGER/POP
POP.KIL == KILPCT~(AFTOT+KDTOT)/POP
POP.NAT --NATTOT/POP
POP.CIV --CNNTOT/POP
PLFDOKC --CNNPK5+CNNPM6+CNNPM7+CNNPM8+CNNPK9+CNNPM10+
CNNPM11+1l+CNNPK12+CNNPM13+CNNPM14+CNNPF5+CNNPF6+CNNPF7+
CNNPF8+CNNPF9+CNNPF10+CNNPF1l+CNNPF12+CNNPF13+CNNPF14
PLFDOMN == NATPM5+NATPK6+NATPM7+NATPM8+NATPK9+NATPM10+
NATPM11+NATPM12+NATPM13+NATPM14+NATPF5+NATPF6+NATPF7
+NATPF8+NATPF9+NATPF10+NATPF11+NATPF12+NATPF13+NATPF14
PLFDOMM == MILPCT~(KILK5+MILM6+KILK7+KILM8+MILK9+MILM10+
MILM:l+MILM12+KILM13+MILM14+MILF5+MILF6+MILF7+MILF8+MILF9+
MILF10+MILF11+KILF12+MILF13+KILF14-AFTOT)
567: PLFD9 == PLFDOMC+PLFDOMN+PLFDOMM
568: LF == LFPART~PLFD9
569: UNEMP == LF-EM96
570: U.AK.US == UNEMP/LF/UUS
571: DELEMP == EM96-EM96(-1)
572: WR.AK.US == LOG(R.WR97)-LOG(WEUS~l00/PDUSCPI)-(LOG(R.WR97(-1))
LOG(WEUS(-1)~100/PDUSCPI(-1)))
573: POPMIG = CKIGl+CMIG2~1/U.AK.US(-l)+CMIG3~WR.AK.US(-1)+
CMIG4~DELEMP
G-31
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation ,....
Kay 1983
Household Module
574: CHHM4 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM4*(1-CPGQM4}*
(HHRM4+RCM4/TP*(YR-1980})
575: NHHM4 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM4*(1-NPGQM4}*
(NHHRM4+NRCM4/NTP*(YR-1980)}
576: HHK4 == CHHK4+NHHM4
577: CHHK5 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM5*(1-CPGQM5}*
(HHRM5+RCM5/TP*(YR-1980)}
578: NHHM5 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPK5*(1-NPGQM5}*
(NHHRM5+NRCK5/NTP*(YR-1980})
579: HHM5 == CHHM5+NHHM5+MHHM5*MILPCT
580: CHHM6 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM6*(1-CPGQK6}*
(HHRM6+RCM6/TP*(YR-1980}}
581: NHHM6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1.ELSE NATPM6*(1-NPGQM6}*
(NHHRM6+NRCM6/NTP*(YR-1980})
582: HHM6 == CHHM6+NHHM6+MHHM6*MILPCT
583: CHHM7 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM7*(1-CPGQM7}*
(HHRM7+RCM7/TP*(YR-1980}}
584: NHHM7 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM7*(1-NPGQM7}*
(NHHRM7+NRCM7/NTP*(YR-1980}}
585: HHM7 == CHHM7+NHHM7+MHHM7*MILPCT
586: CHHM8 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM8*(1-CPGQM8}*
(HHRM8+RCM8/TP*(YR-1980}}
587: NHHM8 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM8*(1-NPGQM8}*
(NHHRM8+NRCM8/NTP*(YR-1980}}
588: HHM8 == CHHM8+NHHM8+MHHM8*KILPCT
589: CHHM9 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM9*(1-CPGQM9}*
(HHRM9+RCM9/TP*(YR-1980}}
590: NHHM9 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM9*(1-NPGQM9}*
(NHHRM9+NRCM9/NTP*(YR-1980}}
591: HHM9 == CHHM9+NHHM9+MHHM9*MILPCT
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MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
592: CHHK10 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPK10*(1-CPGQK10}*
(HHRM10+RCK10/TP*(YR-1980})
593: NHHKlO == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPK10*(1-NPGQK10}*
(NHHRK10+NRCK10/NTP*(YR-1980))
594: HHK10 == CHHK10+NHHK10+KHHK10*KILPCT
595: CHHKll == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPKll*U-CPGQKll}*
(HHRK11+RCK11/TP*(YR-1980}}
596: NHHK11 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPK11*(1-NPGQM11}*
(NHHRKll+NRCKll/NTP*(YR-1980})
597: HHK11 == CHHK11+NHHK1l+KHHK11*KILPCT
598: CHHM12 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPK12*(1-CPGQK12}*
(HHRK12+RCK12/TP*(YR-1980})
599: NHHM12 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPK12*(1-NPGQM12}*
(NHHRK12+NRCK12/NTP*(YR-1980})
600: HHK12 == CHHK12+NHHM12+KHHK12*KILPCT
601: CHHK13 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM13*(1-CPGQM13}*
(HHRK13+RCK13/TP*(YR-1980})
602: NHHM13 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM13*(1-NPGQM13}*
(NHHRK13+NRCK13/NTP*(YR-1980})
603: HHK13 == CHHK13+NHHM13+MHHM13*MILPCT
604: CHHK14 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM14*(1-CPGQM14)*
(HHRK14+RCK14/TP*(YR-1980})
605: NHHK14 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM14*(1-NPGQM14}*
(NHHRK14+NRCM14/NTP*(YR-1980})
606: HHK14 == CHHM14+NHHK14+KHHK14*KILPCT
607: CHHK15 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM15*(1'-CPGQK15)*
(HHRK15+RCM15/TP*(YR-1980))
608: NHHM15 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPK15*(1-NPGQK15)*
(NHHRK15+NRCK15/NTP*(YR-1980))
609: HHM15 --CHHM15+NHHK15+KHHM15*MILPCT
610: CHHF4 --IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF4*(1-CPGQF4}*
(HHRF4+RCF4/TP*(YR-1980))
G-33
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
611: NHHF4 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF4*(1-NPGQF4)*
(NHHRF4+NRCF4/NTP*(YR-1980))
612: HHF4 == CHHF4+NHHF4
613: CHHF5 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF5*(1-CPGQF5)*
(HHRF5+RCF5/TP*(YR-1980))
614: NHHF5 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF5*(1-NPGQF5)*
(NHHRF5+NRCF5/NTP*(YR-1980))
615: HHF5 == CHHF5+NHHF5+MHHF5*MILPCT
616: CHHF6 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF6*(1-CPGQF6)*
(HHRF6+RCF6/TP*(YR-1980))
617: NHHF6 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF6*(1-NPGQF6)*
(NHHRF6+NRCF6/NTP*(YR-1980))
618: HHF6 == CHHF6+NHHF6+MHHF6*MILPCT
619: CHHF7 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF7*(1-CPGQF7)*
(HHRF7+RCF7/TP*(YR-1980))
620: NHHF7 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE
NATPF7*(1-NPGQF7)*(NHHRF7+NRCF7/NTP*(YR-1980))
621: HHF7 == CHHF7+NHHF7+MHHF7*MILPCT
622: CHHF8 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF8*(1-CPGQF8)*
(HHRF8+RCF8/TP*(YR-1980))
623: NHHF8 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF8*(1-NPGQF8)*
(NHHRF8+NRCF8/NTP*(YR-1980))
624: HHF8 == CHHF8+NHHF8+MHHF8*MILPCT
625: CHHF9 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF9*(1-CPGQF9)*
(HHRF9+RCF9/TP*(YR-1980))
626: NHHF9 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF9*(1-NPGQF9)*
(NHHRF9+NRCF9/NTP*(YR-1980))
627: HHF9 == CHHF9+NHHF9+MHHF9*KILPCT
628: CHHF10 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF10*(1-CPGQF10)*
(HHRF10+RCF10/TP*(YR-1980))
629: NHHF10 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF10*(1-NPGQF10)*
(NHHRF10+NRCF10/NTP*(YR-1980))
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630: HHF10 == CHHF10+NHHF10+MHHF10*MILPCT
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
631: CHHF11 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF11*(1-CPGQF11)*
(HHRF11+RCF11/TP*(YR-1980))
632: NHHF11 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF11*(1-NPGQF11)*
(NHHRF11+NRCF11/NTP*(YR-1980))
633: HHF11 == CHHF11+NHHF11+MHHF1l*MILPCT
634: CHHF12 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF12*(1-CPGQF12)*
(HHRF12+RCF12/TP*(YR-1980))
635: NHHF12 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF12*(1-NPGQF12)*
(NHHRF12+NRCF12/NTP*(YR-1980))
636: HHF12 == CHHF12+NHHF12+MHHF12*MILPCT
637: CHHF13 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF13*(1-CPGQF13)*
(HHRF13+RCF13/TP*(YR-1980))
638: NHHF13 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF13*(1-NPGQF13)*
(NHHRF13+NRCF13/NTP*(YR-1980))
639: HHF13 == CHHF13+NHHF13+MHHF13*MILPCT
640: CHHF14 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF14*(1-CPGQF14)*
(HHRF14+RCF14/TP*(YR-1980))
641: NHHF14 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF14*(1-NPGQF14)*
(NHHRF14+NRCF14/NTP*(YR-1980))
642: HHF14 == CHHF14+NHHF14+MHHF14*MILPCT
643: CHHF15 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF15*(1-CPGQF15)*
(HHRF15+RCF15/TP*(YR-1980))
644: NHHF15 == IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF15*(1-NPGQF15)*
(NHHRF15+NRCF15/NTP*(YR-1980))
645: HHF15 == CHHF15+NHHF15+MHHF15*MILPCT
646: HH == HHM4+HHM5+HHM6+HHM7+HHM8+HHM9+HHM10+HHM11+HHM12+HHM13+
HHM14+HHM15+HHF4+HHF5+HHF6+HHF7+HHF8+HHF9+HHF10+HHF11+HHF12+
HHF13+HHF14+HHF15
G-35
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
647: POPCGQ == CNNPMl*CPGQMl+CNNPM2*CPGQM2+CNNPM3*CPGQM3+CNNPM4*
CPGQM4+CNNPM5*CPGQM5+CNNPM6*CPGQM6+CNNPM7*CPGQM7+CNNPM8*
CPGQM8+CNNPM9*CPGQM9+CNNPM10*CPGQM10+CNNPMll*CPGQMll+CNNPM12*
CPGQM12+CNNPM13*CPGQM13+CNNPM14*CPGQM14+CNNPM15*CPGQM15+CNNPF1*
CPGQFl+CNNPF2*CPGQF2+CNNPF3*CPGQF3+CNNPF4*CPGQF4+CNNPF5*CPGQF5+
CNNPF6*CPGQF6+CNNPF7*CPGQF7+CNNPF8*CPGQF8+CNNPF9*CPGQF9+CNNPF10*
CPGQF10+CNNPFll*CPGQFll+CNNPF12*CPGQF12+CNNPF13*CPGQF13+CNNPF14*
CPGQF14+CNNPF15*CPGQF15
648: POPNGQ == NATPMl*NPGQMl+NATPM2*NPGQM2+NATPM3*NPGQM3+NATPM4*
NPGQM4+NATPM5*NPGQM5+NATPM6*NPGQM6+NATPM7*NPGQM7+NATPM8*NPGQM8+
NATPM9*NPGQM9+NATPM10*NPGQM10+NATPMll*NPGQMll+NATPM12*NPGQM12+
NATPM13*NPGQM13+NATPM14*NPGQM14+NATPM15*NPGQM15+NATPFl*NPGQFl+
NATPF2*NPGQF2+NATPF3*NPGQF3+NATPF4*NPGQF4+NATPF5*NPGQF5+NATPF6*
NPGQF6+NATPF7*NPGQF7+NATPF8*NPGQF8+NATPF9*NPGQF9+NATPF10*
NPGQF10+NATPFll*NPGQFll+NATPF12*NPGQF12+NATPF13*NPGQF13+
NATPF14*NPGQF14+NATPF15*NPGQF15
649: HHC == CHHM4+CHHM5+CHHM6+CHHM7+CHHM8+CHHM9+CHHM10+CHHM11+
CHHM12+CHHM13+CHHM14+CHHM15+CHHF4+CHHF5+CHHF6+CHHF7+CHHF8+
CHHF9+CHHF10+CHHF1l+CHHF12+CHHF13+CHHF14+CHHF15
650: HHN == NHHM4+NHHM5~NHHM6+NHHM7+NHHM8+NHHM9+NHHM10+NHHM11+
NHHM12+NHHM13+NHHM14+NHHM15+NHHF4+NHHF5+NHHF6+NHHF7+NHHF8+
NHHF9+NHHF10+NHHF11+NHHF12+NHHF13+NHHF14+NHHF15
651: HHM == MILPCT*(MHHM5+MHHM6+MHHM7+MHHM8+MHHM9+MHHM10+MHHM11+
MHHM12+MHHM13+MHHM14+MHHM15+MHHF5+HHHF6+MHHF7+MHHF8+MHHF9+
MHHF10+MHHF1l+MHHF12+MHHF13+MHHF14+MHHF15)
652: HHSIZEN --(NATTOT-POPNGQ)/HHN
653: HHSIZEC --(CNNTOT-POPCGQ)/HHC
654: HHSIZE == (POP-POPNGQ-POPCGQ-MILPCT*POPMGQ)/HH
655: POPGQ == POPNGQ+POPCGQ+POPMGQ
656: HH24 == HHF4+HHF5+HHF6+HHM4+HHM5+HHM6
657: HH25.29 == HHF7+HHM7
658: HH30.54 == HHF8+HHF9+HHF10+HHF11+HHF12+HHM8+HHM9+
HHM10+HHM11+HHM12
659: HH55 == HHF13+HHF14+HHF15+HHM13+HHM14+HHM15
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660: EMNAT == EMNATX
661: RNAT == RNATX
662: EMRATE = EM96/POPC
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
663: EMRATN1 = (1+PERNA1*(EMRATE-EMRATE(-1))/EMRATE(-1))*EMRATN1(-1)+
PERNA2*(EMRATE-EMRATN1(-1))
664: EMNA == IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN EMNAT(-1)*POPNE ELSE EMRATN1*
POPNE+PERNA3*EMNC
665: EMNNC == EM99-EMGM-EKNA
666: EMRATN == EMNA/POPNE
667: CEA9N = (1-PCINDA)*CEA9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMA9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
668: CEP9N = (1-PCINDA)*CEP9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMP9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
669: CECNN = (1-PCINDA)*CECNN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMCN/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
670: CEM9N = (1-PCINDA)*CEM9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMM9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
671: CET9N = (1-PCINDA)*CET9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMT9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
672: CECKN = (1-PCINDA)*CECMN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMCM/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
673: CEPUN = (1-PCINDA)*CEPUN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMPU/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
674: CED9N = (1-PCINDA)*CED9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMD9/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EKNC))
675: CEFIN = (1-PCINDA)*CEFIN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMFI/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EKNC))
676: CES9N = (1-PCINDA)*CES9N(-1)+PCINDA*((EMS9-PERNA3*EMNC)/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
677: CEGFN = (1-PCINDA)*CEGFN(-1)+PCINDA*((EMGF-EMGM)/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EKNC))
G-37
678: CEGAN = (1-PCINDA)*CEGAN(-l)+PCINDA*(EMGA/
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC))
679: NEMA9N == CEA9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
680: NWSA9N == WRA9*NEMA9N/l000
681: NEMP9N --CEP9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
682: NWSP9N --WRP9*NEMP9N/l000
683: NEMCNN == CECNN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
684: NWSCNN == WRCN*NEMCNN/1000
685: NEMM9N == CEM9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
686: NWSM9N == WRM9*NEMM9N/1000
687: NEMT9N == CET9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
688: NWST9N == WRT9*NEMT9N/1000
689: NEMCMN == CECMN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
690: NWSCMN == WRCM*NEMCMN/1000
691: NEMPUN == CEPUN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
692: NWSPUN == WRPU*NEMPUN/1000
693: NEMD9N == CED9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
694: NWSD9N == WRD9*NEMD9N/1000
695: NEMFIN == CEFIN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
696: NWSFIN == WRFI*NEMFIN/1000
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation """"
May 1983
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697: NEMS9N == CES9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)+PERNA3*EMNC
698: NWSS9N == WRS9*NEMS9N/1000
699: NEMGFN == CEGFN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
700: NWSGFN == WRGF*NEMGFN/1000 -701: NEMGAN == CEGAN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
702: NWSGAN =~ WRGA*NEMGAN/1000
--1
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and Economic Research
~ MAP Documentation
I I May 1983
1 ! I ·.I
T
T
T
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703: WSNA == NWSA9N+NWSP9N+NWSCNN+NWSM9N+NWST9N+NWSCMN+NWSPUN+
NWSD9N+NWSFIN+NWSS9N+NWSGFN+NWSGAN
704: PIN1 == PCYNA1*((PI-NCPI}/WS98)*WSNA
705: PIN == IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN RNAT(-1)*PI ELSE PIN1+NCPI
706: PINN == PI-PIN
707: R.PIN == PIN*100/PDRPI
708: R.PINN == PINN*100/PDRPI
709: P.PIN == PIN*1000/POPNE
710: P.PINCL == NCPI*1000/POPNE
711: P.PINN --PINN*1000/(POP-POPNE)
712: PR.PIN --R.PIN*lOOO/POPNE
713: PR.NCEXP --NCEXP/POPNE/PDRPI*100000
714: PR.PINCL --PR.PIN+PR.NCEXP
715: PR.PINN == R.PINN*lOOO/(POP-POPNE)
716: RATl == PINN/(PI-PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA)
717:
718:
719:
720:
721:
722:
723:
724:
725:
P.DPINN = 1000*(PINN-RAT1*(DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP})/(POP-POPNE)
P.DPINN1 == 1000*(PIN-PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA-(1-RAT1)*
(DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP))/POPNE
PR.DPINN = P.DPINN*100/PDRPI
PR.DPIN == P.DPINN1*100/PDRPI+PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA/
POPNE*100000/PDRPI
Definitional Equations
R.WR98 == WR98*100/PDRPI
R.WR97 = WR97*100/PDRPI
P.EX99S --EX99S*1000./POP
P.EXCAP --EXCAP*1000/POP
P.EXOPS --EXOPS*1000/POP
G-39
726: P.EXONTR == EXONTR*1000./POP
727: P.EXBK --EXGFBM*1000/POP
728: P.R99S --R99S*1000./POP
729: P.RTIS --RTIS*1000./POP
730: P.RT99 --RT99*1000./POP
731: P.EL99 --EL99*1000./POP
732: P.ELED --ELED*1000./POP
733: P.ELNED1 == ELNED1*1000/POP
734: P.RLT99 == RLT99*1000./POP
735: P.GEXP == SLGEXP*1000/POP
736: P.BAL99 --BAL99*1000/POP
737: P.BALPF --BALPF*1000/POP
738: P.BALGF --BALGF*1000/POP
739: P.RSIN --RSIN*1000/POP
740: P.RSIP --RSIP*lOOO/POP
741: P.NRP9S == NONRP9S*l000/POP
742: P.RSEN == RSEN*lOOO/POP
743: P.NPET == NONPET*lOOO/POP
744: P.GODT == GODT*lOOO/POP
745: PR.EX99S --P.EX99S*l00/PDRPI
746: PR.EXONT P.EXONTR*lOO/PDEXOPS
747: PR.EXBM == EXGFBM*lO**S/PDEXOPS/POP
748: PR.EXCAP --P.EXCAP*lOO/PDCON
749: PR.EXOPS == P.EXOPS*lOO/PDEXOPS
750: PR.R99S --P.R99S*l00/PDRPI
751: PR.RTIS P.RTIS*lOO/PDRPI
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
1983 May -
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
752: PR.RT99 --P.RT99*100/PDRPI
753: PR.EL99 --P.EL99*100/PDRPI
754: PR.ELED --P.ELED*100/PDRPI
!j' 755: PR.ELNED == P.ELNED1*100/PDRPI
i I
r,!
756: PR.GEXP == P.GEXP*100/PDRPI
757: PR.GFC --EXGFCHY*10**5/PDRPI/POP
758: PR.ECP --EXCPSHY*10**5/PDRPI/POP
T 759: PR.GFCN --EXGFCNH*10**5/PDRPI/POP
760: PR.ECPN --EXCPSNH*10**5/PDRPI/POP
761: PR.EXEDS --EXEDS*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
762: PR.EXSSS --EXSSS*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
763: PR.EXHES --EXHES*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
764: PR.EXNRS --EXNRS*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
T 765: PR.EXPPS --EXPPS*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
PR.EXJUS 766: --EXJUS*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
767: PR.EXCDS --EXCDS*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
768: PR.EXTRS --EXTRS*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
769: PR.EXGGS --EXGGS*lO**S/PDEXOPS/POP
T 770: PR.RLT99 --RLT99*10**5/PDRPI/POP
771: PR.ELEDC ELEDCP*l0**5/PDRPI/POP --
772: PR.BAL99 --P.BAL99*(100/PDRPI)
773: PR.BALPF --P.BALPF*(100/PDRPI)
774: PR.BALGl --P.BALGF*(lOO/PDRPI)
T 775: PR.BALP2 P.BALPF*(lOO/PDEXOPS)
776: PR.BALG2 --P.BALGF*(lOO/PDEXOPS)
777: PR.RSIN == P.RSIN*(lOO/PDRPI)
G-41
778: PR.RSIP --
779: PR.NRP9 --
780: PR.NPET --
781: PR.RSEN --
782: PR.GODT --
783: PI.TXS --
784: PI.EXS --
785: PI.TXL --
786: PI.EXL --
P.RSIP*{lOO/PDRPI)
P.NRP9S*{100/PDRPI)
P.NPET*(lOO/PDRPI)
P.RSEN*(lOO/PDRPI)
P.GODT*(lOO/PDRPI)
RT99/PI
EXGF/PI
(RL99-RLT99-RLTF)/PI
(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1)))/PI
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
787: PI.EXT --(EXGF+(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1)))-RLT99)/PI
788: PI.RSEN --RSEN/PI
789: PI.GODT --GODT/PI
790: PI.EX99S == EX99S/PI
791: PI.EL99 --EL99/PI
792: PI.RL99 --RL99/PI
793: PI.RLPT --RLPT/PI
794: PI.WS98 == WS98/PI
795: PI. DPI == DPIIPI
796: RL99.PT --RLPTIRL99
797: RL99.RT --RLT99/RL99
798: RS.FED == RSFDN/R99S
799: RS.RP9S RP9S/R99S
800: RS.RSIN --RSIN/R99S
801: RS.RSEN --RSEN/R99S
802: RS.PET --(RP9S+RSIN)/R99S
803: RS.OWN --R99SON/R99S
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804: RS.REC ==
805: RS.RN --
806: RSBM.RP9
(RSIN+RSEN)/R99S
R99SNTIR99S
--RP9SGF/RSGFBM
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
807: RSBM.PET --(RP9SGF+RSIG+RSI0+(1-EXPFBAK)*RSIP)/RSGFBM
808: RSBM.EXD --EXDSS/RSGFBM
809: RSBM.GF == RSIG/RSGFBM
810: RSBM.B99 == (RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF)/RSGFBM
811: RSBM.PF == RSIPGF/RSGFBM
812: RSBM.REN == RSENGF/RSGFBM
813: RN.FED --RSFDN/R99SNT
814: RN.OIL --(RP9S-EXPFCON)/R99SNT
815: RN.RSIN --RSIN/R99SNT
816: RN.RSEN --RSEN/R99SNT
817: EX.R99S --R99S/EXGF
818: EX.NRP9 --(RSEN+RSIN+RSFDN)/EXGF
819: EX.RSIN --RSIN/EXGF
820: EX.RP9S --1-EX.NRP9
821: EX.NPET == NONPETIEXGF
822: EX.PET == 1-EX.NPET
823: EX.RSEN --RSEN/EXGF
824: EX.RVNT --R99SNT/EXGF
825: EX.DSS == EXDSS/EXGF
826: EXBM.RV == RSGFBM/EXGFBM
827: EXBM.CAB == BALCABBM/EXGFBM
828: EXBM.FD == BAL99/EXGFBM
829: EXBM.GR1 == (~SGFBM+EXPFCON-EXPFBAK*RSIP-RP9S)/EXGFBM
G-43
830: EXBM.END == EXDFWITH/EXGFBM
831: DF.RSFD --RSFDN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
832: DF.RP9S --RP9S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
833: DF.RSGF --RSGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
834: DF.RSGFB == RSGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
835: DF.R99S == R99S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
836: DF.RSEN --RSEN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
837: DF.RSIN --RSIN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
838: DF.EXGF --EXGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
839: DF.EXGFB --EXGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
840: DF.CABBM --BALCABBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
841: DF.GOXBM --(EXGFBM-EXGFCAP)*376.536/PDEXOPS
842: DF.NRP9S --NONRP9S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
843: DF.BAL99 --BAL99*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
844: DF.BALDF --BALDF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
845: DF.BALGF --BALGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
846: DF.NPET --NONPET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
847: DF.RSIP RSIP*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
848: DF.BALPF --BALPF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
849: DF.RGFNT --R99SNT*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
850: DF.RSIPN --RSIPNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
851: DF.RSIDN --RSIDNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
852: DF.RSIGN == RSIGNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
853: DF.RSINN --RSINNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
854: DF.PI == PI*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
855: DF.WS98 == WS98*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
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and Economic Research
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MAP Documentation -
May 1983
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I
·--~ I
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and Economic Research -
MAP Documentation
May 1983
882: G.PR.PI :: PR.PI/PR.PI(-1)
883: G.PR.DPI := PR.DPI/PR.DPI(-1) -
884: G.RSEN == RSEN/RSEN(-1)
885: G.EX99S == EX99S/EX99S(-1)
886: G.EL99 =: EL99/EL99(-1)
887: G.PDRPI == PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)
888: G.XONRPC == PR.EXONT/PR.EXONT(-1) -
889: G.POP == POP/POP(-1)
890: G.EK99 --EK99/EK99(-1)
891: G.SRPC --PR.EX99S/PR.EX99S(-1)
892: G.RNSPC --P.RSEN/P.RSEN(-1)
893: G.BAL99 --BAL99/BAL99(-1)
894: G.BAL9PC --P.BAL99/P.BAL99(-1) -895: G.R.WR98 R.WR98/R.WR98(-1)
896: PIU.PIA =: PR.DPINN/PR.DPIUS
897: INDEX.DI --PR.DPI/PR.DPIUS
898: INDEX.WG --R.WR97/(WEUS*52*100/PDUSCPI)
899: INDEX.Sl --EKSUP/R.DPI
900: INDEX.S2 --EKTCU/R.DPI
Income Distribution Hodel Links -
901: NNPKl --CNNPK5+MILPCT*MDPK5
902: NNPK2 == CNNPK6+MILPCT*KDPK6
903: NNPK3 --CNNPK7+CNNPM8+MILPCT*(MDPM7+KDPK8)
904: NNPK4 --CNNPK9+CNNPM10+KILPCT*(MDPM9+MDPM10)
905: NNPM5 == CNNPMll+CNNPH12+MILPCT*(KDPMll+MDPM12)
G-46
Institute of Social
!""!' and Economic Research
I
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
906: NNPK6 --CNNPM13+CNNPK14+KILPCT*(KDPK13+KDPM14}
1 907: NNPK7 --CNNPK15+KILPCT*MDPK15
908: NNPF1 CNNPFS+KILPCT*KDPFS --
909: NNPF2 --CNNPF6+KILPCT*KDPF6
910: NNPF3 --CNNPF7+CNNPF8+KILPCT*(KDPF7+KDPF8}
1 911: NNPF4 --CNNPF9+CNNPF10+KILPCT*(KDPF9+KDPF10)
912: NNPF5 --CNNPF11+CNNPF12+KILPCT*(KDPF11+MDPF12)
913: NNPF6 --CNNPF13+CNNPF14+KILPCT*(KDPF13+KDPF14)
914: NNPF7 --CNNPF15+KILPCT*KDPF15
915: NAPK1 --NATPKS
T 916: NAPK2 == NATPM6
917: NAPK3 --NATPM7+NATPK8
918: NAPK4 --NATPK9+NATPK10
T 919: NAPK5 --NATPKll+NATPK12
920: NAPK6 --NATPK13+NATPK14
921: NAPK7 --NATPK15
922: NAPF1 --NATPF5
923: NAPF2 --NATPF6
924: NAPF3 --NATPF7+NATPF8
925: NAPF4 --NATPF9+NATPF10
926: NAPFS --NATPFll+NATPF12
927: NAPF6 --NATPF13+NATPF14 .
928: NAPF7 --NATPF15
929: PF == CNNPF1+CNNPF2+CNNPF3+CNNPF4+KILPCT*(MDPF1+MDPF2+
KDPF3+KDPF4)
930: PM == CNNPK1+CNNPM2+CNNPK3+CNNPK4+KILPCT*(KDPK1+KDPK2+
KDPM3+MDPK4)
r G-47
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~'
MAP Documentation
May 1983
931: PFN == NATPF1+NATPF2+NATPF3+NATPF4
932: PMN == NATPH1+NATPH2+NATPM3+NATPM4
933: WRGMS == (PI8-WS98)/(EKPRO*PDRPI)/((PI8(-1)-WS98(-1))/
(EKPR0(-1)*PDRPI(-1)))
934: WRGP9 == WRP9/PDRPI/(WRP9(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
935: WRGCN == WRCN/PDRPI/(WRCN(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
936: WRGM9 == WRK9/PDRPI/(WRM9(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
937: WRGT9 == WRT9/PDRPI/(WRT9(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
938: WRGCU == WRCU/PDRPI/(WRCU(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
939: WRGD9 == WRD9/PDRPI/(WRD9{-1)/PDRPI(-1))
940: WRGFI == WRFI/PDRPI/(WRFI(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
941: WRGS9 == WRS9/PDRPI/(WRS9(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
942: WRGGC == WRGC/PDRPI/(WRGC(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
943: WRGGA == WRGA/PDRPI/(WRGA(-1)/PDRPI(-1))
944: PRINT --PRINT2
945: Xl --P1
946: X2 --P2
947: X3 --P3
948: X4 --P4
949: X5 --PS
950: X6 --P6
951: WS98L == WS98(-1)
952: PIL == PI(-1)
G-48
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Institute of Social
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1 MAP Documentation
May 1983
PARAMETER LIST:
1 A83.2 CONSTANT FILE FOR MODEL A83.2 OF THE ALASKAN ECONOMY. CREATED BY
THE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
UNDER THE MAN IN THE ARCTIC PROGRAM FUNDED BY THE NATIONAL SCIENCE
FOUNDATION. REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS HAVE THE PREFIX C FOLLOWED BY A
1 NUMBER. THIS FILE WAS CREATED MAY 1983. •
CMIGl -12.6876 CMIG2 14.1206 CMIG3 49.2216
CMIG4 0.95671 CPGQFl o. CPGQFlO 0.0036
CPGQFll 0.0092 CPGQF12 0.0051 CPGQF13 0.0093
CPGQF14 0.0032 CPGQFlS 0.0751 CPGQF2 0.0045
CPGQF3 0.0032 CPGQF4 0.0031 CPGQFS 0.004
CPGQF6 0.0238 CPGQF7 0.004 CPGQF8 0.0022
CPGQF9 0.0011 CPGQMl 0. CPGQMlO 0.0369
CPGQMll 0.0392 CPGQM12 0.0265 CPGQM13 0.0266
M" CPGQM14 0.0268 CPGQMlS 0.0648 CPGQM2 0. 0071
:I CPGQM3 0.0046 CPGQM4 0.0044 CPGQMS 0.0435
CPGQM6 0. 0729 CPGQM7 0.0238 CPGQM8 0.0166
CPGQM9 0.0278 ClA 0.42666 ClB 0.050183
ClC 0.371052 ClOA 16.9371 ClOB 0.895141
ClOC 6.97821 ClOOA -4.35555 ClOOB 1.25095
ClOOC -0.993033 ClOlA 5. 58779 ClOlB 0.162732
Cl02A 4.0938 Cl02B 1. 95194 Cl02C 1.68094
Cl02D -0.089862 Cl02F 0.243258 Cl03A -20.3494
'T Cl03B 15.8847 Cl03C 0. 712195 Cl04A 2.28334
i I Cl04B 0.967574 ClOSA 1.01698 ClOSB 0.013219
ClOSC 0.73757 C106A -19.3534 Cl068 0.069511
C107A -46.6199 Cl07B 0.014517 CllA -4.74734
CUB 0.024928 Cl2A 7.83103 Cl2B 0.520103
C13A -8.45346 Cl3B 0.683069 Cl3C -80.
T Cl4A -0.885606 Cl4B 0.173656 Cl4C -0.11048
ClSA -8.30542 ClSB 0. 293671 Cl6A 0.074055
Cl6B 0.000307 Cl6C 1.567790E-06 C16D -0.001325
r C16E 0.433666 Cl7A -10.9796 Cl7B 0.119691
Cl8A -3.66471 C18B 0.015655 Cl9A -1.18305 .. I
Cl9B 1. 03 791 C2A 1.50943 C2B 0.274289
C20A -2.68296 C20B 1. 01735 C21A 0.363308
C21B 0.930152 C21C 0.042017 C22A -0.918589
C22B 1. 08552 C23A -2.75748 C23B 1.34193
C23C 0.930092 C23D 0.430625 C24A -3.45059
C24B 1.19903 C25A 0.468259 C25B 0.527066
C26A -1.76919 C26B 1.00396 C26C -0.118769
T C27A -6.66783 C27B 0.011282 C27C -0.00875
C28A 80.1874 C28B 1.09189 C28C 3.14996
C29A -3.76782 C29B 0.802622 C3A 2.7822
C3B 0.246103 C30A -4.09671 C30B 1.19138
T C31A -6.94273 C31B 1.25147 C32A -1.8791
G--49
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -,
May 1983
lfill!!lif4,
C32B 0.663336 C33A -5.44841 C33B 0.896499
C34A 0.197424 C34B 0.002957 C34C -0.629312
C35A -1.791 C35B 0.570399 C36A -41.7079 -C36B -117.753 C36C 7.69046 C36D 0.982345
C36E -10.3654 C36F 81.4021 C37A -5.65507
C37B 0.66256 C38A -189.355 C38B 1.07998
C39A -5.90571 C39B 1.17929 C4A -1.6632 """"' C4B 0.672086 C40A -10.2398 C40B 2.44783
C41A -4.96533 C41B 0.261135 C42A 0.925213
C42B 0.171959 C43A -4.35327 C43B 1. 71165 -
C43C -0.357641 C44A 16.699 C44B 0.063707
C44C 0.032434 C44D -40.2662 C45A 9.0322
C45B 7.29399 C45C 18.7679 C45D -21.7906
C46A -1.82278 C46B 0.907323 C47A -10.7859
C47B 1.80202 C48A -4.54331 C48B 0:917921
C49A -3.70367 C49B 0.726188 CSA 0.106732
""""' CSB 0.596163 CSOA 0.379274 CSOB 0.010411
C51A -48.4838 C51B 0.030347 C52A 3.21093
C52B 1.28862 C53A 4.7921 C53B 3.05381
C53C 3.83615 C53D -0.272543 C53F 0.320275
C54A 20.3019 C54B 0.058467 CS4C 0.201308
C54D 0.098856 C54E 11.6116 CSSA 0.169745 I~
CSSB 0.978561 esse 0.043843 C56A -2.32004
C56B 0.949211 C57A -1.3362 CS7B 1. 26857
C57C 0.042129 C58A -18.3431 CS8B 3.27405 ~'
C59A 4.64174 C59B 2.00986 C59C 2.67656
CS9D 0.949676 CS9E 1. 43667 C59F 0.28503
C6A -0.757478 C6B 0.648296 C60A 0. 917411
C60B 0.001215 C60C -0.630477 C61A 2.3273
C61B 1.18434 C62A 4.1444 C62B 1.5729
C62C 0.901649 C62D 0.706814 C62F 0.15724 -C63A -0.088472 C63B 0.144498 C64A 3.83502
C64B 0.204201 C64C 0.125501 C64D -0.000633
C64E -12.3188 C65A -1.78308 C65B 0. 771752 -C66A 4.37672 C66B 1.79364 C66C 5.75206
C66D -0.253902 C66E -0.897404 C66F 0.148826
C67A -0.3 C67B 0.616529 C67C -0.060264
C68A 41.1756 C68B -0.123466 C68C -30.7457 """'·
C68D 0.000198 C69A -1.99105 C69B 0.653562
C7A 0.908821 C7B 0.209675 C70A 4.5201
1""11
C70B 0.723184 C70C 1. 22075 ClOD 1. 43879
C70F 0.177801 C71A -4.27825 C71B 0.016818
C71C 0.148471 C71D -0.000295 C71E 5.26813SE-OS ~I
C72A 3.76867 C72B 0.011235 C72C 0.013736
C72D 0.025526 C73A -3.01609 C73B 0.830038
C73C -0.04871 C74A 4.5073 C74B 0.723184
C74C 1. 22075 C74D 1. 43879 C74F 0.177801 ~
C7SA -2.37192 C75B 1.00465 C76A -12.5389
~,
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
1 C76B 0.091021 C76C 0.074783 C76D 0.083284
C76E -0.101428 C77A -2.35546 C77B 0.876998
C78A 4.34562 C78B 0.721975 C78C 1.69244
C78D 0.147584 C78E 0.580875 C78F 0.075217
C79A 3.8395 C79B 0.610186 C79D 0.960349
1 C79E -0.914682 C79F -0.043145 C8A 1.14384
C8B 0.455656 C80A -50.1523 C80B 0.000242
C80C -15.8894 C81A -3.62853 C81B 0.982042
C82A 3.97093 C82B 1.89818 C82C 0.757899
C82D 0.604912 C82F 0.19859 C83A· -4.91663
C83C 0.139142 C83D 0.039764 C83E 3.431574E-05
C84A -26.9112 C84B 0.046802 C84C -0.05933
C84D 9.732653E-05 C85A -2.2771 C85B 1.00835
C86A 3. 77964 C86B 1.3643 C86C 2.78304
C86D -0.238086 C86E 2.13938 C86F 0.229349
C87A -2.41837 C87B 1. 00842 C88A 3.89635
C88B . 0.678502 C88C 9.34441 C88D -0.243981
C88E 0.244176 C88F 0.216381 C88G 4.52672
C89A 4.2468 C9A -0.629811 C9B 0.556154
C90A 18.0517 C90B 13.5415 C91A -5.36404
C91B 1.24213 C92A 4.28374 C92B 2.40477
T C92C -0.23483 C92F 0.299248 C93A -2.52615
C93B 0.965943 C94A -2.81492 C94B 1. 01315
T C95A 3. 9771 C95B 1.5729 C95C 0.901649
C95D 0.706814 C95F 0.15724 C96A -2.89633
C96B 1.11355 C97A -4.63823 C97B 1. 26652
C98A -1.02656 C98B 0.83204 C99A -1.31799
C99B 0.817804 EXANNU 800. EXCAPIMP 0.1432
EXCAPOLD 100. EXEL1 1. EXEL2 1.
EXEL3 1. EXEL4 0. EXEL5 o.
EXEL6 0. EXLIK82 2500. EXOMCOST 0.15
EXOPSIMP 7.678 EXRLOP6 0. EXRLOP7 0.
EXRLOP8 0. EXRL1 0. EXRL2 0.
EXRL3 o. EXRL4 0. EXRL40P o.
EXRL5 1. FERT10 0.0043 FERT11 0.
FERT4 0.0004 FERT5 0.0516 FERT6 0.1436
FERT7 0.12 FERT8 0.0697 FERT9 0.0223
G1 0. G10 0.8 G11 0.8
G12 0.8 G13 0.8 G14 0.8
r G15 1. G2 0.75 G3 0.8
G4 0.8 G5 0.8 G6 0.8
G7 0.8 G8 0.8 G9 0.8
r HHRF10 0.216 HHRF11 0.224 HHRF12 0.223
,I HHRF13 0.262 HHRF14 0.32 HHRF15 0.466
HHRF4 0.009 HHRF5 0.036 HHRF6 0.201
HHRF7 0.234 HHRF8 0.237 HHRF9 0.215
HHRM10 0.914 HHRMll 0.943 HHRM12 0.931
G-51
1 Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
NHHRF7 0.188 NHHRF8 0.219 NHHRF9 0.227
NHHRK10 0.807 NHHRKll 0.864 NHHRK12 0.864
NHHRM13 0.893 NHHRK14 0.925 NHHRM15 0.888
NHHRK4 0.003 NHHRK5 0.025 NHHRM6 0.257
NHHRK7 0.539 NHHRK8 0.691 NHHRK9 0.807
NKF1 0. NKFlO 0. NKF11 0.
NKF12 0. NKF13 0. NKF14 0.
NKF15 0. NKF2 0. NKF3 0.
NKF4 0. NKF5 0. NKF6 0.
T NKF7 0. NKF8 0. NKF9 0.
NKK1 0. NMK10 0. NKKll 0.
NKK12 0. NMK13 0. NKK14 0.
T NMK15 0. NMK2 0. NKK3 0.
NKK4 o. NMK5 0. NKK6 0.
NKK7 0. NMK8 0. NKK9 o.
NPGQFl o. NPGQFlO 0.0029 NPGQFll 0.0092
NPGQF12 0.0112 NPGQF13 0.0128 NPGQF14 0.0103
NPGQF15 0.051 NPGQF2 0.0026 NPGQF3 0.0059
NPGQF4 0.0055 NPGQF5 0.024 NPGQF6 0.0284
NPGQF7 0.0118 NPGQF8 0.0092 NPGQF9 0.0057
NPGQK1 0. NPGQK10 0.0288 NPGQKll 0.0258
NPGQM12 0.0181 NPGQM13 0.0233 NPGQM14 0.035
NPGQM15 0.0417 NPGQM2 0.0041 NPGQM3 0.0058
NPGQM4 0.0053 NPGQM5 0.0376 NPGQM6 0.0692
NPGQM7 0.0405 NPGQM8 0.0314 NPGQM9 0.0224
NRCF10 -0.002 NRCFll -0.035 NRCF12 -0.035
NRCF13 -0.028 NRCF14 -0.061 NRCF15 0.033
NRCF4 0. NRCF5 0. NRCF6 0.064
'f"
tl NRCF7 0.072 NRCF8 0.028 NRCF9 -0.002
NRCK10 0.12 NRCMll 0.076 NRCK12 0.076 r NRCK13 0.016 NRCK14 -0.016 NRCK15 0.05
NRCK4 0. NRCM5 0. NRCM6 0.108
NRCK7 0.187 NRCM8 0.186 NRCK9 0.12
NSEXDIV 0. 513 NSFl 0.99891 NSFlO 0.99366
NSFll 0.99733 NSF12 0. 9871 NSF13 0.987
NSF14 0.984 NSF15 0.9689 NSF2 0.99891
NSF3 0.99945 NSF4 0.99972 NSF5 0.99684
NSF6 0. 9971 NSF7 0.99639 NSF8 o. 99611
NSF9 0.99558 NSM1 0.99864 NSK10 0.99018
NSKll 0.99413 NSM12 0.9892 NSK13 0.9788
NSK14 0.9665 NSM15 0.9368 NSK2 0.99864
NSK3 0.99922 NSM4 0.99868 NSK5 0.9933
NSK6 0.99 NSM7 0.9914 NSK8 0.99566 r NSK9 0.9899 NSURINFF 1. NSURINFM 1.
NTP 40. OEMFl -0.1077 OEMFlO -0.0726
OEKFll -0.0449 OEMF12 -0.0709 OEMF13 -0.0441
r OEMF14 -0.096 OEMF15 -0.0141 OEMF2 -0.1077
' OEMF3 -0.1076 OEMF4 -0.0517 OEMF5 -0.051
,.....
G-53
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~;
May 1983
OEMF6 -0.0452 OEMF7 -0.0879 OEMF8 -0.0742
OEMF9 -0.0656 OEMMl -0.1017 OEMMlO -0.0638
OEMMll -0.0326 OEMM12 -0.0561 OEMM13 -0.0507
OEMM14 -0.0178 OEMMlS -0.0178 OEMM2 -0.1017 ~~
OEMM3 -0.1037 OEMM4 -0.0479 OEMM5 -0.0498
OEMM6 -0.0533 OEMM7 -0.0998 OEMM8 -0.0977
OEMM9 -0.0935 PADJ 1.5 PADl 0.7 -PAD2 0.082 PARLVFV 0.919 PARNONGF 0.2
PBLTBL 0.13 PCINDA 0.1 PCIVPY 0.65
PCNCSV 0.5 PCNCSV1 1. PCNCWS 0.25 -
PCNC4 o. PCWSl 0.9 PCYNA1 1. 01545
PC12N 0.922 PC12RN 0.833 PC13C -55.
PC39A 0.5 PC39B 0.003 PDRPIBAS 364.23 -PECIG 0.625 PERNA! 0. PERNA2 0.005
PERNA3 1. PESLT 0.4 PES LTC 0.1
PFISHl 0.97 PIDIST 0. PNTGR 0.02
POPMGQ 9.443 PRINT2 0. PTOURB -4.75
PTOURD 0.4 PTOURE 1. PTOURS 0.4
PTOURT 0.2 PTRTS 0.02 PWRBASE 5473. --Pl o. P2 0. P3 o.
P4 1. PS 1. P6 1.
RCFlO 0.009 RCFll 0.008 RCF12 0.009 -,
RCF13 0.007 RCF14 -0.051 RCFlS 0.097
RCF4 0. RCFS 0. RCF6 -0.008
RCF7 0.026 RCF8 0.01 RCF9 0.01 -RCM10 0.013 RCMll ,..-0.003 RCM12 0.009
RCM13 -0.014 RCM14 -0.013 RCMlS 0.054
RCM4 0. RCM5 0. RCM6 -0.195
RCM7 -0.016 RCM8 0.041 RCM9 0.022 -
ROR 0.02 RORANGRO 0.08 RORCPDEP 0.03
RORCRF 0.08 RORDISK 0.02 RORNC 0.07
RORPDF 0. RORPPF 0.01 SEXDIV 0.518 -
SFl 0.99933 SFlO 0.99829 SFll 0. 99726
SF12 0.99646 SF13 0. 99211 SF14 0.9897 -SF15 0.9659 SF2 0.99933 SF3 0.99993
SF4 0.99992 SFS 0.99958 SF6 0.9995
SF7 0.99935 SF8 0.99923 SF9 0.99896
SM1 0.99913 SMlO 0.996 SMll 0.99501 -SM12 0.99224 SM13 0.98708 SM14 0.97938
SM15 0.93795 SM2 0.99913 SM3 0.99986
SM4 0.99957 SMS 0.99864 SM6 0.99762 """'1
SM7 0.99748 SM8 0.99746 SM9 0.99812
SURINFF 1. SURINFM 1. TP 30. -,
-
G-54
r
r
-
APPENDIX H
ISE R MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL
STOCHASTIC EQUATIONS FOR
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL MODULES
lnstitute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
T
~ I I
T
T
T
T
T
APPENDIX H
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL
This appendix shows the coeffic:ients and regression statistics
for each stochastic equation in the economic and fiscal modules of
the ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model (version A83.2).
Each equation is first printed, followed by the summary
statistics and, finally, the coefficient values. Abbreviations have
the following notations:
NOB
NOVAR
RANGE
RSQ
CRSQ
F(i/j)
SER
DW(i)
COND(x)
SSR
COEF
ST ER
T-STAT
Number of observations
Number of variables
Range of observations
R squared
Corrected R squared
F test
Standard error of regression
Durbin Watsin test
Condition number of x matrix (for monitoring least
squares solution algorithm)
Sum of squared residuals
Coefficient value
Standard error of coefficient
T Statistic
H-1
H-2
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
~p Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-I
.....
-
-
-
-
.....
-
T
4: PDRATIO = PDRATIOC-1)tC67A*CEMSP-EMSPC-1))/EMSPC-1>+C67BtCEMCNX1/
Eh9t:; < --1) ) +C6 7C:i-:D80
NOVAR = 3
1962 TO 1980
i~()f.{ == l 9
F\{iNCiE -
F.;SC~ --
:3ER -
0.92621 CRSQ = 0.91699
0.0153 SSR = 3.738E-03
COEF
C67A
C67B
C6/'C
2.21
VP,L.UE
-0.10202
0.61653
-0.06026
ST EF\
0.04678
0.15164
0.01532
7! PDCON = C107A+C107B*WRCNNP
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.99987 CRSQ = 0.99987
45.646 SER = 1.5924 SSR =
4.95
CDEF
C107A
C107B
VALUE
-46.61990
0.01452
ST ER
0.91687
3.84526E-05
100.420 FC2/16) -
Dl.rJ C 0 > = 1.64 CONDCX) -
T-ST,;T
-2.18088
4.06577
--3.93418
FC1/18) -1.43Et05
DWCO) = 0.97 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
-50.84700
377.53600
15! LOG<FAGI) = C21AtC21B*LOGCPI8)tC21C*LOGCEMCNX1+EMP9)
NOB = 16 NOVt;R = 3 ,
RANGE -1961 TO 1976
RSQ = 0.99827
SER = 0.0275
72.63
CRSQ = 0.998
SSR = 9.815E-03
COEF VALUE ST ER
C21A 0.36331 0.20550
C21B 0.93015 0.03099
C21C 0.04202 0.02088
H-3
3741.180 F < 2/13) -
DW < 0) = 1.55 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
1.76795
30.01790
2.01253
16: LOG<FAGII) = C22AtC22B*LDGCPI)
NOB -20
F\f~NGE =
I~:SQ =
SEF\ =
20.65
COEF
C22A
C22B
NOVAR = 2
117'61 TO 1980
CRSQ = 0.99789 0.998
0.0368 SSR = 2.443E-02
VALUE
-0.91859
1.08552
ST ER
0.08523
0.01146
8969.980 F<l/18) =
DW < 0) = 2.43 CONDCX) =
T-STAT'
-10.77750
94.70880
19: AEX*1000 = C10AtC10B*POPCtC10C*<EMCNX1tEMP9)
NOB = 16 NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1961 TO 1976
RSQ = 0.97065 CRSQ = 0.96614 FC2/13) = 214.994
SER = 16.2836 SSR = 3447.010 DWCO) = 2.19 CONDCX) -
20.95
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C10A 16.93710 34.72310 0.48777
C10B 0.89514 0.14540 6.15625
ClOC 6.97821 1.33067 5.24415
20! ATT = C28AtC28B*<EM99-EMGM>tC28C*EMCNX1
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 3
RANGE = 1961 TO 1979
RSQ = 0.99476 CRSQ = 0.9941
SER = 4,5696 SSR = 334.103
7.27
COEF VALUE ST ER
C28A 80.18740 3.35025
C28B 1.09189 0.03070
C28C 3.14996 0.27770
H-4
F<2116) = 1518.330
DWCO) = 2.81 CONDCX) -
T-STr-lT
23.93470
35,56360
11.34320
-
-
~.
'
...,
-
-
-
-
-
"""
-
T
..,..
I
T
• I
T
!":"'
I
21: LOGCATD/ATTl = C23AtC23B*LOG<AGI/ATT)tC23C*D69tC23D*D72
NOB -16 NOVAR = 4
RANGE = 1961 TO 1976
RSQ = 0.94457 CRSQ = 0.93072 F(3/12) = 68.169
SER = 0.1680 SSR = 0.339 DW<Ol = 1.50 COND<X)
9.20
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C23A -2.75748 0.18568 -14.85040
C23B 1.34193 0.10579 l2.68440
C23C 0.93009 0.17391 5.34818
C23D 0.43063 0.17515 2.45858
26! LOGCRTISCA2) = C24A+C24B*LOGCATI.TT)
NOB = 16
RANGE =
RSQ
SER
COEF
C24A
C24B
=
=
6.20
NOV{1F\ = 2
1961 TO 1976
0.97107 CF.:SQ
0.0985 SSR
VALUE
-3.45059
1.19903
=
=
0.969
0.136
ST ER ·
0.07834
0.05532
. FC1/14) -469.867
DWCO) = 1.57 COND(X)
T-STAT
-44.04770
21.67630
30: RTIS = IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISCC-1)tC25B*RTISC
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1961 TO 1979
RSQ = 0.97803 CRSQ = 0.97674 FC1/17) -756.726
=
-
SER = .8.8000 SSR = 1316.490 DWCO) = 2.34 CONDCX) -
COEF
C251;
C25B
7.19
VALUE
0.46826
0.52707
ST ER
0.09575
0.08996.
H-5
T-STAT
4.89051
5.85858
31: RTISCP = C105A+C105B*PI8+C105C*RTISC
tWB = 20
F\~1NGE -
F:SQ =
SER =
5.40
COEF
C105A
C105B
C105C
NOVAR = 3
1961 TO 1980
0.99238 CRSQ
5.7689 SSR
VALUE
1. 01698
0.01322
0.73757
=
= 0.99148
565.767 .
ST ER
2.18267
0.00119
0.03581.
F<2117) -1106.550
DWCO) = 2.45 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
0.46593
11.07110
20.59760
32: LOGCRTPIF/ATT) = C26A+C26B*LOGCFAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+RTISLOS/
ATT>+C26C*D61.68*LOGCFAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 3
RANGE = 1961 TO 1979
RSQ = 0.99351 CRSQ = 0.9927
SER = 0.0499 SSR = 3.986E-02
14.47
COEF VALUE ST ER
C26A -1.76919 0.08018
C26B 1.00396 0.03795
C26C -0.11877 0.03094
33: DPIRES = C27A+C27B*PI3+C27C*WSCNP .
NOB -20 NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
I~:S1] -
:3EF~ =
0.97549
2.5946
CF.:SQ -0. 97261
SSR = 11-4.447
COEF
C27t~l
C27'B
C27C
\MLUE
-6.05350
0.01107
-·0 + 00870
ST EJ{
1.01043
4. 32765[-0·1
0.00239
H-6
FC2/16) -1225.390
DWCO) = 1.57 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
-22.06600
26.45370
-3.83920
FC2/17) -338,350
DW(O) = 1.26 CONDCX) -
T--STAT
-5.99103
~25 t 3842()
-3.63~)18
-
-
-
-
-i
!
-
-
-I ~ ..
-
T
T
T
T
!
"!"'
I
. I
1.,
34 ; LOG ( I-:L) = C37·~·d·C39B:t:LOG ( XX98-XXF'9)
NOB = 17 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1961 TO 1977
RSQ -0.97163 CRSQ -0.96974
SER = 0.0722 SSR = 7.817E-02
COE::F
C39A
C3'7'B
-6.96721
1.32915
ST ER
0.42986
0.05864
35: LOG<GR) = C40A+C40B*LOG(XX98)
NOB -17 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1961 TO 1977
RSQ = 0.9871 CRSQ =
SER = 0.1018 SSR =
COEF
C40A
C40E<
VALUE
-12.50600.
2.76494
0.98624
0.155
ST ER
0+60181
0.08161
F(1/15) -513.808
DWCO) = 0.85 COND(X) -
T--ST{H
-16.20800
22.66700
1147.740 F<l/15) -
DW < 0) = 1.33 COND<X> -
T-STAT
-20.78070
33.87790
38! LOGCRTBS2*10**3/BL(-1)) -C29A+C29B*LOG<GTR(-1)*10**3/BL(-1))
NOB = 16
RANGE =
1:-..:SQ =
SEF~ =
50.09
COEF
C29A
C29B
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1977
0.88051 CRSQ =
0.1492 SSR =
VALUE
-3.76782
0.80262
0.87198
0.311
ST ER
0.93422
0.07902
H-7
103.166 F<l/14) =
DW ( 0) = 1.50 COND<X> =
T-STt~T
-4.03314
10.15700
4'
48
40 : LOG< RTCS 1 * 1 00/F'DF<F' I) := C43AtC43C>r:I~64. 65tC43B*LDG ( HiF'9 ( -1 ) +EViCN ( -1 """"
>+EMM9<-I>+EMT9<-1>+EMCM<-1>+EMF'UC-1))
NOB = 20 NDVAR = 3
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.96592 CRSQ =
SER = 0.1507 SSR =
1.8.94
COEF VALUE
C43A -4.35327
C43C -0.35764
C43B 1.71165
42 : TPTV -C38A+C38B*POP
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1961 TO 1979
0.96191
0.386
ST ER
0.31079
0.12116
0.08980
RSQ = 0.97676 CRSQ = 0.97539
SER = 10.4952 SSR = 1872.550
10.73
COEF
C38A
C38B
VALUE
-189.35500
1.07998
ST ER
13.03360
0.04040
43: LOG<AHGl = C37A+C37B*LOGCPR.PI)
NOB = 11
RANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
86.02
COEF
C37A
C37B
NOVAR = 2
1966 TO 1976
0.7315 CRSQ = 0.70166
0.0829 SSR = 6.186E-02
VALUE
-5.65507
0.66256
ST ER
1.07530
0.13381
H-8
F<2/1.7l = 240.894
DWCO> = 1.65 COND<X) =
T-STAT
-14.00690
-2.951.91.
j_ 9. 06040
F<1117) = 714.451
DWCO) = 1.12 COND<X> =
T-STAT
-14.52820
26.72920
24.519 F < 1/9 > =
DW ( 0) = 1.51 COND(X) =
T-STAT
-5.25904
4.95165
-
-
-
-
-
-
T
45: LOG<RTMF) = C46AtC46BtLOGCTHG)
NOB = 11 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1966 TO 1976
RSQ = 0.98679 CRSQ = 0.98532
SER = 0.0479 SSR = 2.061E-02
22.67
COEF
C46A
C46B,
VALUE
-1.82278
0.90732
ST ER
0.16384
0.03500
FC1/9) = 672.222
DWCO) = 0.86 COND<X> =
T-STAT
-11.12510
25.92720
46!. LOGCRTVS> = C47A+C47B*LOGCR.DPI8NC-1))
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1962 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.97077 CRSQ =
SER = 0.1373 SSR =
32.26
COEF
C47A
C47B
VALUE
-10.78590
1. 80202
0.96905
0.320
ST ER
0.50842
0.07584
47: LOGCRTAS) =·C48AtC48B*LOGCR.DPI(-1))
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.98924 CRSQ = 0.98861
SER = 0.0422 SSR = 3.024£-02
31.86
COEF VALUE ST ER
C48A -4.54331 0.15432
C48B 0.91792 0.02322
H-9
F(1/17) -564.507
DWCOl = 0.55 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-21.21440
23.75930
FC1/17) = 1563.080
DWCO) = 1.35 COND<X> =
T-STAT
-29.44060
39.53530
48: LOG<RTCIS) = C49A+C49B*LOGCR.DPIC-1))
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.98 CRSQ = 0.97882
SER = 0.0457
31.86
SSR = 3.552E-02
COEF
C49A
C49B
VALUE
-3.70367
0.72619
ST ER
0.16725
0.02516
F(l/17) = 832.910
DWCO) = 2.39 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-22.14490
28.85990
49! RTSS = IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50AtC50BtCEM99-EMGM)
NOB = 19
F.:ANGE =
F\SQ =
SEF=~ =
COEF
C50A
C50B
NOVAR -'1 -.:..
1962 TO 1980
0.97716 CRSQ = 0.97582
0.209 0.1108 SSR =
VALUE
-0.31682
0.01545
ST ER
0.07375
5.72778E-04
52! LOGCROFAS> = C30A+C30B*LOG<TPTVC-1))
NOB = 19
RANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
23.67
COEF
C30A
C30B
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1980
0.96111 CRSQ =
0.1060 SSR =
VALUE
-4.09671
1.19138
0.95882
0.191
ST ER
0.28830
0.05813
H-10
F\1/17> -
D!..J(O) =
T··STr1T
1.29 CONDCX) -
-4+29562
26.96970
F(1/17) = 420.083
DWCO> = 1.10 COND(X) -
T-STAT
-14.20960
20.49580
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1"1'"
II
T
53: LOG<ROFOS) = C33AtC33B:t.LOG(F'I3(-1 )_)
NOB = 19
RMWE =
RSQ =
SER =
22.57
COEF
C33A
C33B
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1980
0.98893 CRSQ = 0.98828
0.0651 SSR = 7.199E-02
VALUE
-5.44841
0.89650
ST ER
0.16877
0.02300
56: LOG<RMIS) = C35AtC35B*LOGCPI3(-1))
NOB -17 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1964, 1968 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.59386 CRSQ = 0.56678
SER = 0.3427 SSR = 1.761
COEF
C35A
C35B.
VALUE
-1.79100
-0.57040
ST ER
0.91547
0. 12180
1519.150 F<1/17) =
DW(O) = 1.73 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-32.28220
38.97610
FC1/15) = 21.933
DW(l) = 0.93 COND<X) -
T-STAT
-1.95638
4.68325
72! LOG ( RSFFS) = C58AtC5BB*LOG (POP ( -1)) •
NOB = 18 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1963 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.9391 CKSQ =
SER = 0.1580
64.47
COEF
SSR =
VALUE
C58A
C58B
-18.34310
3.27405
0.93529
0.399
ST Ef(
1.20056
0.20844
H-11
FC1/16) -246.718
DWCO) = 0.98 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-15.27880
15.70730
21.
95! LOGCEXJUS4) = C20A+C20B*LOG(EXOPS)
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1981
NOB = 20
RANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
0.99519 CRSQ = 0.99493
0.0713 SSR = 9.162E-02
12.06
COEF
C20A
C20B
VALUE
-2.68296
1.01735
ST ER
0.09689
0.01666
96: LOGCEXPPS4) = C91AtC91B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.98271
SER = 0.1662
12.06
COEF VALUE
CRSQ =
SSR =
C91A
C91B
-5.36404
1.24213
0.98175
0.497
ST ER
0.22575
0.03883
97: LOGCEXNRS4) = C93AtC93B*LOG<EXOPS)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = ?
RANGE -1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.99079 CRSQ =
SER = 0.0940 SSR =
12.06
COEF
C93A
C93B
VALUE
-2.52615
0.96594
0.99028
0.159
ST ER
0.12761
0.02195
H-12
3726.980 FU/18) =
[IJ,J( 0) = 1.14 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-27.69200
61.04880
FC1/18) -1023.320
DWCO) = 1.05 CONDCX) =
-23.76100
31.98930
FC1/18) -1936.610
DWCO) = 0.81 CONDCX> -
T-ST{iT
-19.79540
44.00690
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I
I
98! LOGCEXHES4) = C94A+C94B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ =
SER =
12.06
COEF
C94A
C94B
0.97559
0.1617
VALUE
CRSQ =
SSR =
-2.81492
1.01315
0.97423
0.471
ST ER
0.21962
0.03778
99! LOGCEXSSS4) = C96A+C96B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.98987 CRSQ =
SER = 0.1137 SSR =
12.06
COEF
C96A
C96B
VALUE
-2.89633
1.11355
0.9893
0.233
ST ER
0.15440
0.02656
100: LOG<EXEDS4) = C19AtC19B*LOG<EXOPS>
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.99519 CRSQ = 0.99492
SER = 0.0728 SSR = 9.551E-02
12.06
COEF
C19A
C19B
VALUE
-1.18305
1.03791
ST ER
0.09892.
0.01701
H-13
FC1/18) -719.325
DWCO) = 0.45 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
-12.81710
26.82020
FC1/18> = 1758.210
DWCO) = 1.07 CONDCX> =
T-STAT
-18.75900
41.93110
FC1/18) = 3721.010
DWCO) = 1.12 COND<X> -
T-STAT
-11.95930
60.99980
101: LOGCEXCDS4) = C97A+C97B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
l:;:fd~GE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.98103 CRSQ =
SER = 0.1777 SSR =
12.06
COEF
C97A
C97B
VALUE
-4.63823
1.26652
0.97997
0.569
ST ER
0.24137
0.04152
102: LOGCEXTRS4) = C98A+C98B*LOGCEXOPS)
..
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.99756 CRSQ = 0.99743
SER = 0.0415 SSR = 3.098E-02
12.06
COEF
C98A
C98B
VALUE
-1.02656
0.83204
ST ER
0.05634
0.00969
103: LOGCEXGGS4) = C99A+C99B*LOG<EXOPS)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.91646 CRSQ =
SER = 0.2492 SSR =
12.06
COEF
C99A
C'7'9B
VALUE
-1.31799
0.81780
0.91182
1.117
ST ER
0.33836
0.05820
H-14
F<1118) = 930.686
DWCO) = 1.50 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-19.21660
30.50710
F<1118) = 7372.610
DWCO) = 1.37 CONDCX) =
T-ST{~T
-18.22140
85.86340
FC1/18) -197.461
DWCO) = 1.73 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-3.89527
14.05200
-
-
-
-
'J
·T
T
i
.I
120: EXPRCDS ~ C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
NOB = 20
RANGE =
RSQ
SER
COEF
C7A
C7B
=
=
1.96
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1981
0.84914 CF:SQ
1.0883 SSR
VALUE
0.90882
0.20968
=
=
0.84076
21.320
ST ER
0.30060
0.02083
FC1/18) = 101.318
DWCO) = 1.05 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
3.02337
10.06570
121: EXPREDS1 = C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT
NOB ~ 17 NOVAR = 3
RANGE = 1965 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.98143 CRSQ =
SER = 1.5340 SSR =
COEF
C1A
C1B
C1C
4.64
VALUE
0.42666
0.05018
0.37105
0.97878
32.945
ST ER
0.89349
0.00503
0.01375
122: EXPRSSS = C2A+C2B*EXSSS
NOB = 20
I:;.:ANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
COEF
C2A
C2B
2.62
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1981
0.97794 CRSQ =
2.0905 SSR =
VALUE
1.50943
0.27429
0.97671
78.666
ST ER
0.70182
0.00971
H-15
FC2/14> = 369.990
DWCO> = 1.80 CONDCX) =
T-ST{-tT
0.47752
9.97479
26.98410
797.781 F<l/18) =
DW ( 0) = 0.74 CONDCX> -
T-STAT
2.15075-
28.24500
123! EXPRUA = C32AtC32B*EXUA
NOB = 11 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1971 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.96844 CRSQ = 0.96493
SER = 6.8793 SSR = 425.920
3.61
COEF VALUE
C32A -1.87910
C32B 0.66334
12~! EXF'RHES = C3AtC3B:t.:EXHES
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.96456 CRSQ =
SER = 1.6653 SSR =
2.37
COEF VALUE
C3A 2.78220
C3B 0.24610
125! EXF'RNRS = C4AtC4B*EXNRS
rWB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.99589 CRSQ =
SER = 1.2941 SSR =
COEF
C4A
C4B
2.57
VALUE
-1.66320
0.67209
ST ER
4.03380
0.03992
0.96259
49.918
ST ER
0.51996
0.01112
0.99567
30.143
ST ER
0.42822
0.01017
H-16
FC1/9) = 276.161
DWCO) = 1.40 COND<X> =
T-STAT
-0.46584
16.6:L810
F(1/18) = 489.935
DW<O> = 1.05 COND<X> -
T-STf.,T
5.35074
22.13450
FC1/i8> = 4366.430
DWCO) = 0.75 CONDCX) =
T-ST.~T
-3.88402
66.07890
-
~
-·
-,
-
-
-
-
126! EXPRPPS = C5AtC5B*EXPPS
NOB·= 20
RM~GE =
RSQ ·-
SER =
2.41
COEF
CSA
C5B
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1981
0.99484 CF\SQ
0.4924 SSR
VALUE
0.10673
0.59616
=
=
127: EXPRGGS = C8AtC8B*EXGGS
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1981
0.99455
4.363
ST ER
0.15566
0.01012
NOB = 20
f~ANGE =
RSQ = 0.95541 CRSQ =
SER = 3.5722
2.73
SSR =
0.95293
229.688
COEF
C8A
CSB
VALUE
1.14384
0.45566
128! EXPRJUS = C6AtC6B*EXJUS
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2.
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.99766 CRSQ =
SER = 1.0478 SSR =
COEF
C6A
C6B
2.66
VALLIE
-0.75748
0.64830
ST ER
1.23748
0.02320
0.99753
19.763
ST ER
0.35603
0.00740
H-17
F(1/18) = 3471.220
DW(O) = 1.51 COND<X)
T-STAT
0.68568
58.91700
F<1118) -385.656
--
DW(O) = 0.87 COND(X) =
T-STAT
0.92433
-19.63810
F(1/18) -7683.690
DW<O> = 0.62 COND<X) =
T-STAT
-2.12758
87.65660
129: EXPRTRS = C9AtC9B*EXTRS
NOB = 20
RM~GE =
r.:sQ -
SEF\ =
COEF
C9A
C9B
2.97
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1981
0.99855
0.9717
VALUE
CHSQ =
SSR =
-0.62981
0. 55"615
0.99847
16.995
ST ER
0.35909
0.00499
1.24Et04 F(l./18) --
DW ( 0) = 0.85 COND(X) =
T-ST~H
-1.75393
111.37100
132: LOGCWSGS) = C55AtC55B*LOG<WSGSFY>+C55C*D75
NOB = 1t. NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.99791 CRSQ = 0.99759
SER = 0.0335 SSR = 1.456[-02
15.49
COEF W1LUE ST ER
C55{~ 0.1.6975 0.06303
C55B 0.97856 0.01264
C55C 0.04384 0.03509
134! EXINREC == C17A+C17B*<EXOPS-RLT99)
NOVAR = 2,
1971 TO 1981
0.87016 CRSQ
NOB = 11
F~ANGE -
RSQ --
SEF: = 14.4962 SSR =
COEF
C17A
C17B
4.21
VALUE
-10.97960
0.11969
= 0.85573
1891.270
ST ER
9.71360
0.01541
H-18
FC2/13) -3104.200
DWCO> = 2.17 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
2.69326
. 77.39:L90
1.24937
F(l/9) = 60.316
DW(O) -1. 88 COND<X> ==
T-STAT
-1.13033
7.76636
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
""""
-
-
1'1'1"'
I
146! XXVHY = C41AtC41B*<EXHYCAPtEXHYCAPC-1))
NOB = 12 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1964 TO 1975
RSQ -0.78763 CRSQ = 0.7664
SER = 5.8369 SSR = 340.691
COEF
C41A
C41B
6.91
VALUE
-4.96533
0.26113
ST ER
5.94174
0.04288
FC1/10l = 37.0S8
DWCO) = 1.47 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
-0.83567
6.08998
147: XXVNHY = C42A+C42B*CEXNHYCPC-1)tEXSPCAPC-1)-EXCAPFRC-2)tEXNHYCP+
EXSPCAP-EXCAPFRC-1))
r~OB = 11
RANGE =
r::sa
SER
COEF
C42A
C42B
=
=
3.69
NOVAR = 2
1965 TO 1975
0.86994 CRSQ
3.5535 SSR
VALUE
0.92521
0.17196
=
=
0.85549
113.646
ST ER
2.11974
0.02216
FCl/9) = 60.201
DWCO) = 1.94 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
0.43648
7.75893
177! LOG<LPTB1) = C57A+C57B*LOG<PI3(-1))tC57C*D71.00
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 3
RANGE = 1963 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.9973 CRSQ = 0.99696
SER = 0.0490 SSR = 3.844E-02
45.64
COEF
C57A
C57B
C57C
VALUE
-1.33620
1.26857
0.04213
ST ER
0.20928
0.03084
0.04169
H-lq
F(2/16) -2954.450
DWCO) = 2.40 CONDCX) =
-6.38484
41.13980
1. 01042
184 : RLPT1 = C18A+C18B*LPTB
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1963 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.99145 CRSQ = 0.99095
SER = 6.1860 SSR = 650.535
COEF
C1BA
C1BB
2.73
VALUE
-3.66471
0.01566
ST ER
2.19556
3.52547E-04
F<1117) = 1971.900
DWCO) = 1.50 CONDCX) =
T-STtiT
-1.66914
44.40600
186: LOGCRLOT*1000/POPC-1)) = C31A+C31B*LOGCPIC-1)*1000/POPC-1))
NOB = 20
RANGE -
RSQ =
SER =
32.26
COEF
C31A
C31B
NOVAR = 2
1962 TO 1981
0.98831 CRSQ =
0.0752 SSR =
VALUE
-6.82373
1.23627
188! RLTVS4 = C63A+C63B*RTVS
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.85998 CRSQ =
SER'= 0.2441 SSR
COEF
C63A
C63B
2.92
VALUE
-0.08847
0.14450
0.98767
0.102
ST ER
0.27159
0.03169
0.85221
1.073
ST ER
0.08911
0.01374
H-20
1522.330 F< 1/18) =
DWCO) = 1.74 COND<X> =
T-STAT
-25.12500
39.01640
FC1/18) = 110.557
DWCO> = 2.39 CONDCX> -
T-STAT
-0.99289
10.51460
-
-
-
-
-
-
-'
-
-
-
-
-
-
199: RLTEF4 = C36A+C36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36CtC36D*ADMSD
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 5
RANGE -1963 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.9957 CRSQ -0.99448
SER = 5.1635 SSR = 373.270
33.96
CDEF I..)ALUE ST ER
c-:r-~ .... '"'OH -41.70790 13,.12910
C36F 81.40210 7.04958
C36B -117.75300 9.80848
C36C 7.6'?046 0.40097
C36D 0.'?8234 0.20856
216: ELED1 = C11AtC11B*PI3C-1)
NOB = 17 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1965 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.8627 CRSQ
SER = 14.7509 SSR
COEF
C11A
C11B
3.52
VALUE
-4.74734
0.02493
=
=
0.85354
3263.850
ST ER
6.80070
0.00257
H-21
FC4/14> -811.379
DWCO) = 2.37 CONDCX) -
T-STf"-!T
-3.17675
11.54710
-12.00520
19.17960
4.71003
FC1/15) =
DWCO) = 2.34
T-STAT
-0.69807
9.70803
94.246
CONDCX) =
218! ELBD = C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDLC-1)tC14B*GOBONDLC-1>
NOB = 12 NOVAR = 3
RANGE = 1970 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.96021 CRSQ = 0.95137 FC2/9) = 108.607
SER = 11.4753 SSR = 1185.150 DWCO) = 2.52 CONDCX> =
6.68
_GOEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C14A -0.88561 11.03360 -0.08026
C14C -0.11048 0.02727 -4.05157
C14B 0.17366 0.01804 9.62580
219: ELNED1/PDRPI = C16A+C16E*D81.00+C16D*R.DPI8NC-1>+C16B*D71.00*
R.DPI8NC-1)+C16C*WEALTHC-1>*POPC-1)
NOB = 17
I:(ANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
6'7'.85
COEF
C16A
C16E
C16D
Cl6B
C16C
NOVAR = 5
1965 TO 1981
0.98777 CRSQ = 0.98369
0.0559 SSR = 3.748E-02
VALUE ST ER
0.07405 0.08404
0.43367 0.06199
-0.00132 3.58569E-04
3.07177E-04 7.31536E-05
1.56779E-06 2.67099E-07
H-22
FC4/12) = 242.263
DWCO) = 2.37 CONDCX) =
T-ST~iT
0.88121
6.99545
-3.69483
4.19908
5.86969
-
-
'~
-
-
-
......
-
1 225! ELEDCP = C15A+C15B*ELED
,.
I I
lj
I
J
rr.•. ;I
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
I=<ANGE -1962 TO 1981
F:SQ = 0.82638 CRSQ
SER = 16.3857 SSR
COEF
C15A
C15B
2.79
VALUE
-8.30542
0.29367
-
=
0.81674
A832.850
ST ER
5.77502
0.03173
f(1/18) =
[I[..J( 0) = 1.13
T-STAT
-1.43816
9.25607
85.675
CONDCX) =
226: ELPERS = C12AtC12B*CEL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1962 TO 1981
RSQ = 0.98926 CRSQ = 0.98866
SER = 13.2365 SSR = 3153.680
COEF
C12A
C12B
2.61
VALUE
7.83103
0.52010
ST ER
4.42589
0.01278
FC1/18> = 1657.480
DWCO) = 2.91 COND<X) =
T-STAT
1.76937
40.71210
227: WSGL-C13AtC13C*DB1.00tC13B*CELPERS+ELPERSC-1))
NOB = 18 NOVAR = 3
RANGE = 1963 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.99238 CRSQ =
SER = 13.0148 SSR =
1.0Et75
COEF
C13r;
C13C
C13f>
VAl_UE
-8.31784
o.ooooo
0.68222
0,'7'9136
2540.770
ST EF:
4.89396
o.ooooo
0.01544
H-23
976.625 F(2/15) =
DW ( 0) = 1.82 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-1.69961
o.ooooo
44.19560
232: PIDIR = C51AtC51B*<DPitDPIC-1)tDPIC-2)tDPIC-3)tDPIC-4))
NOB = 16
RANGE =
f=\:SQ =
NO'JAF~ = 2
1965 TO 1980
0.9903 CRSQ =
SER = 15.8473 SSR =
0.98961
3515.920
COEF
C51A
C51B
3.59
VALUE
-48.48380
0.03035
ST ER
7.66457
8.02538£-04
F<1114) = 1429.870
DWCO) = 1.03 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-6.32570
37.81360
234: PITRAN/PDRPI = C34AtC34B*POPtC34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 3
RANGE = 1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.93435 CRSQ =
SER = 0.1370 SSR =
30.57
COEF
C34A
C34B
C34C
VALUE
0.19742
0.00296
-0.62931
ST ER
0.43778
0.00112
0.13954
FC2/17) -120.979
DW(O) = 0.74 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
0.45096
2.63731
-4.50993
235! PIOLI = C44AtC44D*D61.75tC44B*<WS98-WSCNP)tC44C*WSCNPC-1)
NOB = 20
RANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
16.29
COEF
C44A
C44D
C44B
C44C
NOVAR = 4
1961 TO 1980
0.99191 CRSQ =
9.9931 SSR =
VALUE
16.69900
-40.26620
0.06371
0.03243
0.99039
1597.790
ST ER
17.34240
13.24440
0.00422
0.01169
H-24
653.632 F<3/16) =
D!..l < 0) = 2.14 COND<X> =
T-STAT
0.96290
-3.04023
15.10940
2. 77496
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
T
r
T
T
236: PISSC = C106AtC106B*CWS98-WSCNP)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.99259
SER = 7.7477
3.20
COEF VALUE
CF:SQ =
SSR ==
C106A -19.35340
C106B 0.06951
0.99218
1080.480
ST ER
3.03884
0.00142
F(1/18) -2411.940
DW(O) = 1.07 COND(X) =
T-STAT
-6.36868
49.11140
237! PIPR01*100/PDRPI = C45AtC45B*EMPR01tC45C*D61.66+C45D*D79
NOB = 19
!:;::ANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
11.40
COEF
C45A
C45B
C45C
C45D
NOIJAR = 4
1961 TO 15'79
0.88532 CRSQ = 0.86239
5.0034 SSR = 375.508
IJALL)E ST ER
9.03220 6.29946
7.29399 0.92964
18.76790 5.32460
-21.79060 5.95788
F(3/15) -38.601
DW(O) = 1.23 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
1.43380
7.84607
3.52474
-3.65745
2 4 6 ! F· I R ~1 D J * 1 0 0 IF' D F..: P I = C 1 0 3 A+ C 1 0 3 E: * E i'1 U.!-X 1 + C l 0 3 C :>1< E 7'19 7
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.98502 CRSQ =
SER = 12.6270 SSR =
t.) + 78
COEF
C103A
C103B
C103C
'JM.UE
-20.34940
15 + 88·170
0.7:!.219
Oo98326
2710.5:LO
ST EF:
8.55305
0.72688
0.08147
H-25
!:i59.021 FC2/17) ··-
[1(,)( 0) -2.15 COND<X) -
T--ST~"-\T
-2.377'19
21~85320
8.74166
262: XXCNB = C54AtC54B*R.DPI8N+C54C*R.DPI8X+C54D*R.DPI8XC-1)tC54E*
[164.65
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 5
RANGE = 1962 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.96235
SER = 9.5354
8.72
CRSQ = 0.95159
SSR = 1272.930
COEF VALUE ST ER
C54A 20.30190 7.65963
C54B 0.05847 0.00843
C54C 0.20131 0.03229
C54D 0.09886 0.03467
C54E 11.61160 7.67436
264! LOGCEMCN1> = C56AtC56B*LOGCXXCN1)
NOB = 21
F:~~~~GE =
J;:SQ =
SER = ·
23.35
COEF
C56A
C56B
rWVAR = 2
1961 TO 1981
0.95001 CRSQ =
0.0903 SSR =
VALUE
-2.32004
0.94921
0. 7'4738
0. 155
ST ER
0.23045
0.04995
H-26
F(4/14) -89.453
DWCO) = 2.08 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
2.65051
6.93728
6.23466
2.85108
1.51304
FC1/19> -361.072
DWCO) = 0.47 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
-10.06740
19.00170
-
-
-
-
-
rr
!
rr
'
T
I
T
I
T
T
268: LOGCWRCNNP/PDRPI) = C59AtC59FtD.80DEC6tC59BtLOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)t
C59C*LOGC1+EMCNRT)tC59D*LOGC1tEMCNRT<-1>>+C59E*LOGC1tEMCNRTC-2))
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 6
1~: (.d·H3 E = 1 7' 61 T 0 1 9 8 0
RSQ -0.93976 CRSQ -0.91825
SER -0.0431 SSR = 2.602E-02
COEF
C59A
C59F
C59B
C59C
C59Ir
C5?E
6.00
VALUE
4.64174
0.28503
2.00986
2.67656
0.94968
1. 43667
ST EF\
0.01229
0.04745
0.24339
0.68143
0.93281
0.69160
273: LOGCXXP9) -C52AtC52B*LDG<EMP9>
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1961 TO 1979
RSQ = 0.89638 CRSQ =
SER = 0.2534 SSR =
COEF
C52A
C52B
3.41
VALUE
3.21093 •
1.28862
0.89028
1. 092
ST ER
0.10769
0.10626
H-27
FC5/14) -43.680
DW<O> = 1.38 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
377.54500
6.00643
8.25779
3.92787
1.01808
2.07730
F(l/17) = 147.058
DW(O) = 0.80 COND<X> =
T-STAT
29.81700
12.1.2650
274: LOGCWRP9/PDRPI) = C53A+C53FtD.80DEC6+C53DtD61.76tC53BtLOGCWEUS/
PDUSCPI)tC53CtLOGC1+EMCNRT> -
NOB == 20
f:;:ANGE -··
Fi:SQ -
SER --
COEF
C53Pr
C53F
C53D
C53B
C53C
N 0 'Hr R == 5
1961 TO 1'7'80
CRSQ -0.940.32 0.95288
0.0546 SSR =-" 4. 480E-02
\Jf'iLUE ST ER
4.79210 0.03468
0.32028 0.06966
-0.27254 0.03549
3.05381 0.31010
3.83615 0.48142
75.835 F (.4/ 15) --
DW C 0) = 1.53 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
138.17800
4.59761
-··7.678•19
9.84789
7.96847
276! EMMO-C60A+C60BtR.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77
NOB == 20
RANGE -
F:SQ ::::
::;ER ==
10.73
COEF
C6()A
C60B
C60C
N 0\.JA F~ == 3
1961 TO 1980
0.98062 CRSQ -0 + 9/'834
0.146 0.0926 SSR =
VAL.UE ST ER
0.'?1741 0.10770
0.00122 6.69159E-05
-·0. 63048 0.06982
278: LOGCXXM91)-C61A+C61B*LDGCEMM91)
r·WB = 19
F:FrNGE -
F:S C~. ==
COEF
C61r;
C61.F:
NOVt1F~ == 2,
1961 TO 1. 'T?9
(•.88816
0.1177
CF\:SQ -
SSR =
2. 327'30
1.1.8434
0.88158
0.235
ST ER
0.21101
0.1.0193
H-28.
430.081 FC2/17) ·-
DW ( 0) = 0.70 CONDCX) -
T-STi:":JT
8.51843
18.1.6440
-··9. 03053
1.35.004 FU./17) -
Dl~I(O) :::: 0,92 CONDCX) -
T-STt~T
11.02960
1.1 .• 61860
-
-
-·
-
-
-
-
T J
282; LOGCWRM9A9/PDRPI> = C62A+C62F%D.SODEC6tC62B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPilt
C62C*LDG<1+EMCNRT>+C62DtLOG(1tEMCNRTC-1))
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 5
RANGE= 1961 TO 1980.
RSQ -0.81971 CRSQ = 0.77163
SER = 0.0421 SSR = 2.663E-02
COEF t.,.:,;LUE ST ER
Ct.2A 4.13658 0.01161
(:62F 0.15724 0~04638
f:62B 1.57290 0.23340
C62C 0.90165 0.51283 C62D 0 ,. 706S1 0.51625
FC4/15) -17.050
DWCO) = 1.50 CONDCX) -
T-STP.tT
356.33400
3.39060
6.73918
1~7~3817
L36914
287: XXTNT = C64AtC64B*R.DPI8XtC64D*R.DPIBX*R·DPI8X(-1)tC64C*R.DPI8Nt C64E*D71.73
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 5
RANGE = 1962 TO 1980
F~SQ -0. 9S:'452
SER = 4.4006
7.46
CRSQ = 0.99295
SSR = 271.116
COET VALUE ST ER
C64A 3.83502 . 3.02693
C64B 0.20420 0.02259
C64D -6.32537E-04 9.93881£-05
C.£4C 0.12550 0.00335
C64E -12.31880 2.83003
H-29
FC4/14) -634.976
DWCO) -2.39 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
1.26696
9.03747
-6.36431
37.48510
-4.35288
288! LOGCEMTNT> = C65AtC65B*LOG<XXTNT)
F:r,I~GE --1'?61 TO 1.980
::3ER ==
21.86
COEF
0. 7'8902
0.0368
Vt,LUE
CRSQ -0.98841
SSF\ == 2. 438E-02
ST ER
-1t78308 0.09015
0.01917 0.77175
FC1/18) -1621.080
DWCO) = 0.93 CDNDCX) -
T-ST{H
--:l. 9. 7/'<7'80
4().26220
2 0 ~ • .-5. LOGCWRT9/PDRPI) = C66AtC66F*D.BODEC6tC66D*D61.76fC66B*LOGCWEUS/
PDUSCPI>+C66C*LOGC1+EMCNRT)tC66E*LOG<1tEMCNRTC-1))
i~OB = 20
F~td~C:JE -
RSQ ·-
:3EF: -
COEF
c~ .. :::.A
U:.c'.iF
C66D
C66B
C66C
8('85
NO')AF.: = 6
1961 TO 1980
CF.:SQ = 0.94846 0.96202
0.0438 S:3F: = 2. 680E-02
'v'~1LUE ST EF:
4.37672 0.03632
0.14883 0.06076
-0.25390 0.03755
1.79364 0.24866
5.75206 0.63002
-0. 8'?7•10 0.70836
H-30
FC5/l4) -
DLHO) -1.99
T-STttT
120.51.600
2. 449-42
-6.761~50
7.21334
9.1295-'S.'
--1 • 2668B
70. 7'23
COND<X> -
-
-
...
-
-
-
-
....
-
-
1
IT
~
,.i '.I
-I I
:I
r
T ''! ...
~
:I
II
295: XXCM = C68AtC68B*R.DPI8N(-1)tC68C*D61.74tC68D*WEALTHC-1>*POPC-1)
NOB = 16 NOVAR = 4
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.98863 CRSQ = 0.98579
515.018 SER = 6.5512 SSR =
57.55
COEF VALUE ST ER
C68A 41.17560 15.84540
C68El -0.12347 0.03746
C68C -30.74570 8.13001
C68D 1.98004E-04 3.12176E-05
296: LOGCEMCM) = C69AtC69B*LOG<XXCM)
NOB = 20
F<F"dWE -
F<=:L~ =
!:3ER =
COEF
C69A
C6S:'B
NOVAF.; == 2
1961 TO 198()
0.95761
0.0696
CRSQ = 0.95525
SSR = 8.708£-02
\MLUE
-1.99105
0.65356
ST ER
0.14562
0.03241
347.875 FC3/12) -
DW ( 0) == 1.68 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
2.59858
-3.29566
-3.78175
6.34269
FC1./:L8) ····
D\1,1(0) ::
T-·STt~T
0.66 CONDCX) -
-1.3.67290
20. l t.380
297: LOGCWRCMPU/PDRPI) = C70AfC70F*D.80DEC6fC70BtLOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI>+
C70C*LOGC1tEMCNRTC-2))fC70D*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-1))
NDB = 20
R?d)GE =
f::sQ ·-
~3ER =
3. 02
COEF
C7()A
C70F'
C70B
C70C
C/()[1
NO\·'AR = 5
1961 TO 1980
0.77282 CRSQ = 0.71224
0.0479 SSR = 3.444£-02
VALUE ST ER
4.53206 0.01306
0.17780 0.05268
0.72318 0.26940
1.22075 0.57'194
1.43879 0.58295
H-31
FC4/15) -12.757
DWCO) = 1.65 CONDCX) =
T·-STAT
347.01400
7. -..... ~-"'(.\ ~+..j/,_),_Ja
2. 684 ... 15
2.06229
2.4t,Sl3
299! XXPU-C72A+C72BtR.DPISNC-1>+C72C*R.DPI8XtC72D*R.DF'I8N(-2)
NOB = 18
F:,~NGE ·-
F'SO =
SER =
49.68
COEF
C72A
C72B
C72C
C72D
1980
0. 97'072 CRSD. =
SSR = 1. 4839
VALUE
3.76867
0.01123
().01374
0.02553
0.98873
30.828
ST ER
1.07636
0.00744
0.00599
0.00705
497.984 F<3/14) =
DW ( 0) == 2.67 CONDCX) =
T-STHT
3.50130
1.50922
2.29492
3.61830
300! LOGCEMPU> == C73A+C73C*PIPEC-1>+C73B*LOGCXXPU)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.9914 CRS~ = 0.99039
SER = 0.0366 SSR = 2.274E-02
COEF
L: 73t~
C73C
C73B
VALUE
-3.01<)09
-0.04871
0.83004
ST ER
0.06610
0.03876
0.01923
FC2/17) = 979.867
DWCO) = 1.62 CONDCX) =
T-ST(iT
-45.62580
--1.25677
43.15370
301: LOGCWRCMF'U/PDRPI) = C74AtC74FtD.80DEC6tC74B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI>+
C74C~LOGC1+EMCNRTC-2))fC74D*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-1))
NOB === 20 NO'-.-'AR = 5
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
F~SQ -,... -.• -........ (' ....... ,
1..) + .l / .,:;.. ":'..::. CF~SQ = 0.71224 F(.4/15) -12.757
:3EFi -0. 047'7' SSF\ = 3.444E-02 DW(O) == 1.65 COt·m C X) -
COEF \...'ALUE ST ER T-STAT
C7·4li 4+53206 0.01306 347.01·400
C74F 0.:1.7780 0 .. 05268 3.37538
f:7 4E' 0.72318 0.26940 2.68445
C74C 1 ..,-""1""-~ ,.~.·.V/;,; 0. 5'7'194 2. 0622S)
C74D 1 +43879 Of58295 2.46813
H-32
-
.....
-
-
-
.....
.,..
:;I
'I
I
rr·
I
~ I
T
. I
rr
'I ,,
T
303: XXDW = C71AtC71B*R.DPI8NtC71C*R.DPI8XtC71D*R.DPISXC-1J*R.DPI8Xt
C71E*WEALTHC-1>*POPC-1)
NOB = 16
r:;.:ANGE =
f~SQ =
SER =
63.22
COEF
C71A
C71B
C71C
C71D
C/'lE
NOVAR = 5
1965 TO 1980
0.99494 CRSQ = 0.9931
78.907 2.6783 SSR =
VALUE ST ER
-4.27825 3.93849
0.01682 0.01623
0.14847 0.02288
-2.950/'6£-04 6.·45149E-05
5.26814E-05 1.19548E-05
540.533 F(4/11) =
DW ( 0) = 1.40 COND(X) =
T-STAT
-1.08627
1.03628
6.48977
-4.57376
4.40671
304: XXDRNT -C76A+C76B*R.DPI8NtC76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8N<-1>tC76E*
R.DPIBXC-1)
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 5
RANGE = 1962 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.99701 CRSQ = 0.99616
SER = 3.7780 SSR = 199.828
62.81
COEF
C76A
C/'6B
C76C
C76D
C76E
'v'ALUE
-8.12942
0.06973
0.07878
0 + 09/'9.0
-0.09266
ST EF.:
2.98554
0.02099
0.02108
0.02020
0.01603
H-33
FC4/14) = 1167.510
DWCO> = 2.91 COND(X) -
T-SHH
-2.72293
3.32245
3.73662
4.84584
-5.78080
305: LOGCEMDW) -C77A+C77B%LOGCXXDW)
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
Ot?9722 CF:::::Q = ,., (J(J_,.,_,
Vt77/\}i HSQ ==
::;cr: = SSR = 1.278E-02
14.68
CDEF VALUE ST EF~
C77A -2.35546 0.04393
C77B 0.87700 0.01090
FCl/18) -6467.990
DWCO) = 0.46 CONDCX) -
T--STAT
--53.61710
80.42340
306: LOGCEMDRNT) = C75AfC75B*LOGCXXDRNT)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.99744 CRSQ = 0.9973
SER = 0.0239 SSF: = 1.032E-02
21 ,. c.8
COEF
C75,;
C?SF:
VALUE
-2.37192
1. 004t..5
ST EF:
0.0581.7
0.01199
H-34
FCl/18) -7017.800
bWCO) = 1.28 CONDCX) -
T·-·SHH
-40.77430
83.7721()
-
-
....
-
-',
-
J
T
JOB! LOGCWRDW/PDRPI) = C78AtC78F*D.80DEC6tC78B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI>+C78C
*LOGC1tEMCNRT)tC78D*LOG<1+EMCNRT<-1>>+C78E*LOG<ltEMCNRT(-2))
NDB = 20
f.:ANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
NQI..}AR = 6
19t.1 TO 1980.
0.87863 CRSQ = 0.83528
0.0275 SSR = 1.058E-02
FC5/14) -
DW ( 0) =
20 + :~69
1.68 CONDCX> -
'T 6. 00
I
I
T
, I
,...
I
COEF
C78A
C78F
C78B
C78C
C78D
C78E
VALLIE
4.34562
0.07522
0.72197
1.69244
0.14758
0.58088
ST ER
0.00784
0.03026
0.15520
0. 43•t52
0.59482
0.44101
T-STAT
554.30800
2.48574
4.65192
3.89499
0.24812
1.31715
309! LOGCWRDR/PDRPI> = C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)t(t
C79D>*LOGC1tEMCNRTC-1>>+C79E*LOG<1+EMCNRT(-2))
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 5
RANGE = 1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.6895 CRSQ = 0.6067
SER = 0.0273 SSR = 1.122E-02
COEF
C79A
C79F
C79B
C79D
C79E
3.02
'v1ALUE
3.83950
-0.04314,
0.61019
0.96035
-0.91468
ST ER
0.00745
0.03006
0.15376
0.33271
0.33784
H-35
FC4/15) = 8.327
DWCO) = 2.28 COND<X> -
T-STAT
~51.5. 09El00
-1.4351.()
3.96855
2. 886•t3
-2.70742
316! XXFI = CSOA+CBOC*D71.73+C80B*WEALTHC-1)*POP(-1)
NOB = 16 NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.9941 CRSQ = 0.9932
SER -8.4999 SSR = 939.228
5.85
COEF VALUE ST ER
CSOA -50.15230 6.16004 eeoc -15.88940 5.53236
C80B 2.41737E-04 5.31543E-06
317! LOG(EMFI> = C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI)
NDB = 21
RANGE =
RSQ =
SEF< =
17.03
COEF
CB:iA
CS:LB
NO\HiR = 2
1'7'61 TO 1981
0.99604 CRSQ = 0.99583
0.0386 SSR = 2.826E-02
VALUE
-3.62853
0.98204
ST ER
0.07190
0.01421
FC2/13) = 1096.090
DW<O> = 1.24 COND<X> -
T-STAT
-8.14155
-2.87209
45.47830
4773.880 F<1/19> -
DW<O> = 0.60 CONDCX) -
-50.46620
69.09300
318: LOGCWRFI/PDRPI) = C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI>+C82
*LDG<1+EMCNRT>+C82C*LOGC1tEMCNRT<-1>>
NOB =·20 NOVAR = 5
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ -
E;ER --
0.94077
0.0253
c.c;: sa = o • 9 2 4 9 s
SSR = 9. 630E--03
2.97
CDEF VALUE ST ER
C82A 3. 970'~3 0.00698
Cf32F 0.19859 0.02789
Ct'l2B 1.89818 0.14035
C82D 0.60491 0.30839
cE:~~c 0.75790 0.31045
H-36
FC4/15) -59.567
DW(O) = 1.57 CONDCX> -
r-sr,:; T
568.82900
7.12106
13.524AO
:1..96150
2.A4l33
-
""'1
-
-
-
-'
-
-
-
f'f"'·
'.1
r.l
lj"
.I
j
T
320! XXSSNT = C84AtC84B*R.DPI8NtC84C*R•DPI8XC-1>tC84D*WEALTHC-i>*POPC
-1)
NOB = 16 NOVAR = 4
RANGE = 1965 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.99276. CRSQ = 0.99095
SER = 5.0981 SSR = 311.890
30.09
COEF
C8AA
C84B
C84C
C84[1
VALUE
-26.91120
0.04680
-0.05933
9.73265[-05
ST ER
5.30315
0.01557
0.01786
1.17353E-05
FC3/12) = 548.673
DWCO) = 2.13 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
-5.07457
3.00657
-3.32122
8.29346
321: XXSB = C83A+<+C83C>*R.DPI8XtC83D*R.DPI8XC-1>tC83E*WEALTHC-1>*POP
(-:l)
NOB = 16 NOVAR = 4
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSQ -0.97912 CRSQ = 0.97391 FC3/12) = 187.610
SER = 4.2878 SSR = 220.627 DWCO) = 2.19 COND<X> -
7.28
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C83A -4.91663 3.15771 -1.55702
C83C 0.13914 0.01415 9.83411
C83D 0.03976 0.01584 2.51112
C83E 3.43157E-05 3.11547E-06 11.01460
H-37
322: LOGCEMSBNT) = C85AtC85B*LOGCXXS8NT)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
F\SQ ~-=
SER :::
0.99834
0.0228
CRSQ -0.99825
SSR = 9.376E-03
17.17
COEF
CSSA
C85B
VALUE
-2.27710
1.00835
ST ER
0.04397
0.00969
323! LOGCEMSB) = C87AtC87B*LOGCXXSBl
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.9989 CRSQ = 0.99884
SER = 0.0250
9.24
SSR = 1.128E-02
COEF VALUE ST ER
C87A -2.41837 0.02617
C87B 1.00842 0.00788
1.08Et04 F0/18) -
DW ( 0) = 0.98 CONDCXl =
-51.78730
104.0·1200
F<l/18) = 1.64E+04
DWCO) = 0.76 CONDCX) =
T-STAT
-92.42570
128.03700
324! LOGCWRSNB/PDRPil = C86AtC86F*D.80DEC6tC86B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI>+
C86C*LOGC1tEMCNRT>+CS6D*LOGC1tEMCNRTC-1)ltC86E*LOGC1tEMCNRTC-2))
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 6
RANGE = 1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.83956 CRSQ = 0.78226 FC5/14) -14.652
SER = 0.0600 SSR = 5.033E-02 DWCO) = 0.86 CONDCXl -
6.00
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
co'~-<-•OH 3.77964 0.01710 221.02400
C86F 0.22935 0.06600 3.47475
C86B 1.36430 0.33853 4.03004
C86C 2.78304 0.94780 2.93630
C86D -0.23809 1.29746 -0 + 18350
ct::6E 2.13938 0.96196 2.22398
H-38
-
-
-
-
-
-
I"""
~
-
l'f"'
~!""
r
325: LOGCWRSB/PDRPI) = C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88EtD61.70tC88B*LOGCWEUS/
PDUSCPI)tC88C*LOG<1+EMCNRT)+CSBD*LDGC1tEMCNRTC-1))tC88G*LDG<1+EMCNRTC
·-2) )
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 7
RANGE = 1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.95023 CRSQ = 0.92727
SER = 0.0632 SSR = 5.193E-02
COEF VALUE ST ER
C88A 3.89635 0.04859
CSSF 0.21638 0.09348
CSBE 0.24418 0.05403
C88B 0.67850 0.49601
esse 9.34441 1.21868
C88D -0.24398 1.44964
CSSG 4.52672 1.17680
334! LOG<XXGF) = C101A+C101B*LOG<EMGF)
NOB --19
RANGE =
F~SP =
SEF\' =
103.99
COEF
C10U\
C101B
Nov~;R = 2
1961 TO 197'?
0.16241 CRSQ = 0.11314
0.0312 SSR = 1.6S6E-02
VALUE
5.58779
0.16273
ST ER
0.37237
0.09690
H-39
F(6/13) -41.371
DWCO> = 1.92 CONDCX) -
T-STAT
80.18010
2.31476
4.51911.
1.36792
7.66762
-0.16830
3.84664
F(1/17) = 3.296
D~(O) = 0.49 CONDCX>
T-STAT
15.0061.0
1. 6 7945
335: LOGCWRGC/PDRPI> = C89A+LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)
NI]F: = 20 NO'.)AF: == 1
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.44462 CRSQ = 0.44462 FC0/19) -15.211
SER = 0.0853 SSR = 0. 138 DW(O) = 0.22 CONDCXl =
1. 00
COEF 'v' ALUE ST EF: T-STIH
CE:9A 4.14408 0.01907 217.32900
341: LOGCWRGS/PDRPI) = C92AtC92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG<WEUS/PDUSCPI>+C92C
>1;'[161.73
NOB = 20
F:ANGE -
i;:SQ -
SER =
3.90
COEF
C92A
C92F
C'j' :2B
c·;·2c
N0 1 • ...'AR = 4
1961 TO 1980
0.94424 CRSQ = 0.93378
0.0473 SSR = 3.582E-02
VALUE ST ER
4.28374 0.02172
0.29925 0.05622
2.40477 0.26893
-0.23483 0.02418
FC3/16) =
DW ( 0) =
T-STAT
1.06
197.22500
5.32240
8.94205
-9.70994
90.312
CONDCX) -
343: LOG<WRGL/PDRPI> = C102AtC102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69tC102C*LOG(i~
EMCNRT>+C102B*LOG<WEUS/PDUSCPI)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 5
RANGE = 1961 TO 1980
RSQ = 0.94901 CRSQ = 0.93542 FC4/15) -69.798
SER = 0.0353 SSR = 1.867E-02 DWCO) = 1.87 COND(X) -
5.02
COEF VALUE ST ER T-SHiT
C102A 4.09380 0.02027 201.93100
C102F 0 • .24326 0.04742 5.12951
C102D -0.08986 0.02486 -3.61516
Cl02C 1.68094 0.36066 4.66074
C102B 1.951'7'4 0.26951 7.24264
H-40
-
-
-
-
-
....
-
-"\
~I
-
-
["'-
1
I
348: LOGCXXGA) = C104AtC104B*LOGCEMGA)
r\OB = 19
RAI~GE =
RSQ =
SER =
12.91
COEF
C104A
C104B
NOVAR = 2
1961 TO 1979
0.99634
0.0281
CRSQ = 0.99613
S~:R = 1. 339E-02
VALUE
2.28334
0.96757
ST EF.;
0.04182
0.01422
350: XXA9 = C90A+C90B*<EMA9+EMPROFIS>
NOB = 19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE = 1961 TO 1979
RSQ = 0.88599 CRSQ = 0.87929
SER = 5.1414 SSR = 449~375
10.16
COEF
C90A
C90B
VALUE
-:-43.64550
13.92170
ST ER
6.05120
1.21120
FC1/17) = 4631.660
DWCO) = 1.95 COND(X) -
T-STAT
54.59890
68.05550
FC1/17) = 132.115
DW<O> = 2.13 COND<Xl =
T-STAT
-7.21269
11.49410
351! LOGCWRM9A9/PDRPI> = C95AtC95F*D.SODEC6tC95B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI>+
C95C*LOGC1tEMCNRT>+C95D*LDGC1+EMCNRTC-1))
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 5
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.81971 CRSQ = 0.77163
SER -0.0421 SSR = 2.663E-02
CDEF
C95f~t
(:'?~.if:\
r: 9 !:it:
C?5D
2.S'7
v'ALUE
4.13658
0.15724
1.57290
0.90165
0.70681
ST ER
0.01161
0.04638
0.23340
0.51283
0.51625
H-41
F(4/15) -17.050
DWCO) = 1.50 CONDCX) -
T--STAT
356. 33•100
3.39060
6.73918
1.75817
1.36914
359! LOGCEMPR01) -C100AtC100C*D61.66tC100B*LOGCEM98)
NOB = 20 NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
F~SQ =
::3EF: =
59.08
COEF
C100A
C100C
C100B
0.94~547
0.1937
VALUE
CF:SQ =
SSF\: ==
-4.35555
-0.99303
1.25095
0.93906
0.638
ST Ef~
1.18255
0.140j.7
0.23555
H-42
FC2/17> = 147.382
DWCO) = 0.81 COND(X) -
r-srr~r
-3.68318
-7 t C18426
5.31071
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
APPENDIX I
MAP REGIONALIZATION MODEL LISTING
(Including Parameters)
MODEL: A83.CD
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PURPOSE: This model allocates statewide projections of population,
employment, and households from the MAP economic model to the
census division level.
DATE: May 2, 1983
SYMBOLS:
ENDOGENOUS:
M.Ol M.02 M.03 M.04 M.OS M.06 M.07 M.08 M.09 M.10 M.ll
M.l2 M.13 M.14 M.15 M.l6 M.17 M.l8 M.19 M.20 M. 21 M.22
M.23 M.24 M.25 M.26 M.27 M.28 M.29 PCEN.06
CONSTRUCT:
ADJ B.AG B.AM B.FG B.NR B.RB B.ST BAG BAM BFG BNR BRB
BST G.AG G.AM G.FG G.NR G.RB G.ST GAG GAM GFG GNR GRB
GST M.AG M.AM M.FG M.NR M.RB M.ST P.AG P.AM P.FG P.NR
P.RB P.ST P.01 P.02 P.03 P.04 P.OS P.06 P.07 P.08 P.09
P.lO P.11 P.l2 P.13 P.l4 P.15 P.16 P.l7 P.l8 P.19 P.20
P.21 P.22 P.23 P.24 P.25 P.26 P.27 P.28 P.29 PCEN.01
PCEN.02 PCEN.03 PCEN.04 PCEN.OS PCEN.07 PCEN.08 PCEN.09
PCEN.10 PCEN.11 PCEN.12 PCEN.13 PCEN.l4 PCEN.15 PCEN.l6
PCEN.l7 PCEN.18 PCEN.l9 PCEN.20 PCEN.21 PCEN.22 PCEN.23
PRE.ST PRE.01 PRE.02 PRE.03 PRE.04 PRE.OS PRE.06 PRE.07
PRE.08 PRE.09 PRE.10 PRE.11 PRE.12 PRE.l3 PRE.14 PRE.15
PRE.16 PRE.l7 PRE.l8 PRE.l9 PRE.20 PRE.21 PRE.22 PRE.23
PRE.24 PRE.25 PRE.26 PRE.27 PRE.28 PRE.29 S.AG S.AM S.FG
S.NR S.RB S.ST
DEFINITION:
ADJHH B.IR G.IR HH.AG HH.AM HH.FG HH.IR HHCEN.ST HHCEN.01
HHCEN.02 HHCEN.03 HHCEN.04 HHCEN.OS HHCEN.06 HHCEN.07
HHCEN.08 HHCEN.09 HHCEN.lO HHCEN.l1 HHCEN.12 HHCEN.13
HHCEN.14 HHCEN.lS HHCEN.16 HHCEN.l7 HHCEN.l8 HHCEN.19
HHCEN.20 HHCEN.21 HHCEN.22 HHCEN.23 HPRE.ST HPRE.Ol HPRE.02
HPRE.03 HPRE.04 HPRE.OS HPRE.06 HPRE.07 HPRE.08 HPRE.09
HPRE.lO HPRE.11 HPRE.12 HPRE.l3 HPRE.l4 HPRE.15 HPRE.l6
HPRE.17 HPRE.l8 HPRE.l9 HPRE.20 HPRE.21 HPRE.22 HPRE.23 M.IR
P.IR S.IR S.Ol S.Ol.Ol
S.Ol.06 S.01.07 S.01.08
S.Ol.l3 S.Ol.l4 S.01.15
S.Ol.20 S.01.21 S.01.22
S.01.27 S.01.28 S.01.29
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
S.Ol.02 S.01.03 S.Ol.04
S.Ol.09 S.Ol.lO S.Ol.ll
S.01.16 S.Ol.17 S.01.18
S.01.23 S.01.24 S.01.25
S.02 S.02.01 S.02.02
s .01. 05
s. 01.12
S.Ol.l9
s .01. 26
S.28.28 S.28.29 S.29 S.29.01 S.29.02 S.29.03 S.29.04 S.29.05
S.29.06 S.29.07 S.29.08 S.29.09 S.29.10 S.29.11 S.29.12
S.29.13 S.29.14 S.29.15 S.29.16 S.29.17 S.29.18 S.29.19
S.29.20 S.29.21 S.29.22 S.29.23 S.29.24 S.29.25 S.29.26
S.29.27 S.29.28 S.29.29
EXOGENOUS:
8.01 8.02 8.04 8.05 8.06 8.08 8.09 8.11 8.12 8.14 8.15
8.16 8.17 8.18 8.21 8.24 8.25 8.26 8.27 8.29 BETA 801
802 804 805 806 808 809 811 812 814 815 816 817 818
821 824 825 826 827 829 G.Ol G.02 G.04 G.05 G.06 G.08
G.09 G.ll G.l2 G.l4 G.15 G.16 G.l7 G.l8 G.21 G.24 G.25
G.26 G.27 G.29 GOl G02 G04 G05 G06 GOB G09 Gll Gl2 Gl4
Gl5 Gl6 G17 Gl8 G21 G24 G25 G26 G27 G29 HH POP
PARAMETER:
A. 01.01 A.01.02 A. 01.03 A.Ol.04 A.01.05 A. 01.06 A. 01.07
A. 01.08 A.Ol.09 A.Ol.lO A.Ol.ll A.01.12 A.01.13 A. 01.14
A.Ol.l5 A. 01.16 A.01.17 A.Ol.18 A.01.19 A. 01.20 A.01.21
A. 01.22 A. 01.23 A. 01.24 A.01.25 A.01.26 A.01.27 A.Ol. 28
A.Ol. 29 A.02.01 A.02.02
A.28.29 A.29.01 A.29.02 A.29.03 A.29.04 A.29.05 A.29.06
A.29.07 A.29.08 A.29.09 A.29.10 A.29.11 A.29.12 A.29.13
A.29.14 A.29.15 A.29.16 A.29.17 A.29.18 A.29.19 A.29.20
A.29.21 A.29.22 A.29.23 A.29.24 A.29.25 A.29.26 A.29.27
A.29.28 A.29.29 8.03 8.07 8.10 8.13 8.19 8.20 8.22 8.23
8.28 803 B07 810 813 819 820 822 823 828 G.03 G.07 G.lO
G.l3 G.19 G.20 G.22 G.23 G.28 G03 G07 GlO G13 Gl9 G20
G22 G23 G28 HHSZ.Ol HHSZ.02 HHSZ.03 ,HHSZ.04 HHSZ.05 HHSZ.06
HHSZ.07 HHSZ.08 HHSZ.09 HHSZ.10 HHSZ.ll HHSZ.l2 HHSZ.l3
HHSZ.l4 HHSZ.15 HHSZ.16 HHSZ.l7 HHSZ.18 HHSZ.l9 HHSZ.20
HHSZ.21 HHSZ.22 HHSZ.23 IK.Ol.Ol IM.Ol.02 IK.Ol.03 IM.Ol.04
IM.Ol.05 IK.Ol.06 IM.Ol.07 IK.01.08 IM.01.09 IK.Ol.lO
IM.Ol.ll IM.Ol.12 IK.Ol.13 IK.Ol.14 IM.Ol.15 IM.Ol.16
I-2
-
-
-
-
~
-"'i
-
-
-
-
-
-
~·
-
~
' '
IM. 01.17
IM. 01.23
IM. 01.29
IM.28.28
IM.29.05
IM.29.11
IM.29.17
IM.29.23
IM.29.29
PGQ.Ol
PGQ.08
PGQ.l6
IM.01.18
IM. 01.24
IM.02.01
IM.28.29
IM.29.06
IM.29.12
IM.29.18
IM.29.24
PC.04.16
IM.Ol.l9
IM. 01.25
IM.02.02
IM.29.01
IM.29.07
IM.29.13
IM.29.19
IM.29.25
PC.04.25
PGQ.02 PGQ.03 PGQ.04
PGQ.09 PGQ.10 PGQ.ll
PGQ.l7 PGQ.l8 PGQ.l9
IM.01.20
IM.01.26
IM.29.02
IM.29.08
IM.29.14
IM.29.20
IM.29.26
PC.06.25
PGQ.OS
PGQ.l2
PGQ.20
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
IM.Ol.21 IM.Ol.22
IM.01.27 IM.01.28
IM.29.03 IM.29.04
IM.29.09 IM.29.10
IM.29.15 IM.29.16
IM.29.21 IM.29.22
IM.29.27 IM.29.28
PC.08.16
PGQ.06 PGQ.07
PGQ.l3 PGQ.14 PGQ.15
PGQ.21 PGQ.22 PGQ.23
PM.Ol PM.02 PM.03 PM.04 PM.OS PM.06 PM.07 PM.08 PM.09
PM.10 PM.ll PM.12 PM.13 PM.l4 PM.lS PM.16 PM.l7 PM.l8
PM.19 PM.20 PM.21 PM.22 PM.23 PM. 24 · PM.25 PM.26 PM.27
PM. 28 PM.29
EQUATIONS:
Total Employment (M.aa) in region a a
1:
2:
M.01 = (A.Ol.Ol*M.01+A.01.02*M.02+A.01.03*M.03+A.01.04*
M.04+A.01.05*M.05+A.Ol.06*M.06+A.Ol.07*M.07+A.01.08*M.08
+A.01.09*M.09+A.01.10*M.l0+A.01.11*M.11+A.01.12*M.12+
A.01.13*M.13+A.01.14*M.l4+A.01.15*M.1S+A.Ol.l6*M.16+
A.Ol.17*M.17+A.01.18*M.18+A.01.19*M.19+A.01.20*M.20+
A.01.2l*M.21+A.01.22*M.22+A.01.23*M.23+A.01.24*M.24+
A.01.25*M.25+A.Ol.26*M.26+A.01.27*M.27+A.01.28*M.28+
A.01.29*M.29)*BETA+B.01+G.Ol
M.02 = (A.02.01*M.Ol+A.02.02*M.02+A.02.03*M.03+A.02.04*
M.04+A.02.05*M.05+A.02.06*M.06+A.02.07*M.07+A.02.08*M.08
+A.02.09*M.09+A.02.10*M.10+A.02.11*M.11+A.02.12*M.12+
A.02.13*M.13+A.02.14*M.14+A.02.15*M.15+A.02.16*M.l6+
A.02.17*M.l7+A.02.18*M.l8+A.02.19*M.19+A.02.20*M.20+
A.02.21*M.2l+A.02.22*M.22+A.02.23*M.23+A.02.24*M.24+
A.02.25*M.25+A.02.26*M.26+A.02.27*M.27+A.02.28*M.28+
A.02.29*M.29)*BETA+B.02+G.02
I-3
)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
3: M.03 = (A.03.01*M.Ol+A.03.02*M.02+A.03.03*M.03+A.03.04*
K.04+A.03.05*M.05+A.03.06*M.06+A.03.07*M.07+A.03.08*M.08
+A.03.09*M.09+A.03.10*M.10+A.03:11*M.ll+A.03.12*M.l2+
A.03.13*M.13+A.03.14*M.14+A.03.15*M.15+A.03.16*M.16+
A.03.17*M.17+A.03.18*M.18+A.03.19*M.19+A.03.20*M.20+
A.03.21*M.21+A.03.22*M.22+A.03.23*M.23+A.03.24*M.24+
A.03.25*M.25+A.03.26*K.26+A.03.27*M.27+A.03.28*M.28+
A.03.29*M.29)*BETA+B.03+G.03
4: M.04 = (A.04.01*M.Ol+A.04.02*M.02+A.04.03*M.03+A.04.04*
M.04+A.04.05*M.05+A.04.06*M.06+A.04.07*M.07+A.04.08*M.08
+A.04.09*M.09+A.04.10*M.10+A.04.11*M.ll+A.04.12*M.l2+
A.04.13*M.l3+A.04.14*M.14+A.04.15*M.15+A.04.16*M.16+
A.04.17*M.l7+A.04.18*M.l8+A.04.19*M.19+A.04.20*M.20+
A.04.21*M.21+A.04.22*M.22+A.04.23*M.23+A.04.24*M.24+
A.04.25*M.25+A.04.26*M.26+A.04.27*M.27+A.04.28*M.28+
A.04.29*K.29)*BETA+B.04+G.04
5: M.OS = (A.05.01*M.Ol+A.05.02*K.02+A.05.03*M.03+A.05.04*
M.04+A.05.05*M.05+A.05.06*K.06+A.05.07*M.07+A.05.08*M.08
+A.05.09*M.09+A.05.10*M.10+A.05.1l*M.ll+A.05.12*M.12+
A.05.13*M.13+A.05.14*M.14+A.05.15*M.15+A.05.16*M.l6+
A.05.17*M.17+A.05.18*M.18+A.05.19*M.19+A.05.20*M.20+
A.05.21*M.2l+A.05.22*M.22+A.05.23*M.23+A.05.24*M.24+
A.05.25*M.25+A.05.26*M.26+A.05.27*M.27+A.05.28*M.28+
A.05.29*M.29)*BETA+B.05+G.05
6: M.06 = (A.06.0l*M.Ol+A.06.02*M.02+A.06.03*M.03+A.06.04*
M.04+A.06.05*M.05+A.06.06*M.06+A.06.07*M.07+A.06.08*M.08
+A.06.09*M.09+A.06.10*M.10+A.06.11*M.ll+A.06.12*M.12+
A.06.13*M.13+A.06.14*M.14+A.06.15*M.15+A.06.16*M.l6+
A.06.17*M.l7+A.06.18*M.18+A.06.19*M.19+A.06.20*M.20+
A.06.2l*M.21+A.06.22*M.22+A.06.23*M.23+A.06.24*M.24+
A.06.25*K.25+A.06.26*M.26+A.06.27*M.27+A.06.28*M.28+
A.06.29*M.29)*BETA+B.06+G.06
7: K.07 = (A.07.01*M.Ol+A.07.02*K.02+A.07.03*K.03+A.07.04*
M.04+A.07.05*M.05+A.07.06*M.06+A.07.07*M.07+A.07.08*M.08
+A.07.09*M.09+A.07.10*M.10+A.07.11*M.ll+A.07.12*M.l2+
A.07.13*M.13+A.07.14*M.14+A.07.15*M.l5+A.07.16*M.l6+
A.07.17*M.17+A.07.18*M.18+A.07.19*M.19+A.07.20*M.20+
A.07.21*K.21+A.07.22*M.22+A.07.23*M.23+A.07.24*M.24+
A.07.25*M.25+A.07.26*M.26+A.07.27*M.27+A.07.28*M.28+
A.07.29*M.29)*BETA+B.07+G.07
I-4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11""'
I
-
,1""'
8:
9:
10:
11:
12:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
M.08 = (A.08.01~M.Ol+A.08.02*M.02+A.08.03~M.03+A.08.04~
M.04+A.08.0S*M.05+A.08.06*M.06+A.08.07*M.07+A.08.08*M.08
+A.08.09*M.09+A.08.10*M.l0+A.08.11*M.ll+A.08.12*M.12+
A.08.13*M.13+A.08.14*M.14+A.08.1S*M.15+A.08.16*M.l6+
A.08.17*K.17+A.08.18*K.18+A.08.19*M.l9+A.08.20*M.20+
A.08.21*M.21+A.08.22*K.22+A.08.23*K.23+A.08.24*M.24+
A.08.2S~M.25+A.08.26*M.26+A.08.27*M.27+A.08.28*M.28+
A.08.29*K.29)*BgTA+B.08+G.08
M.09 = (A.09.01*M.Ol+A.09.02*M.02+A.09.03*M.03+A.09.04*
M.04+A.09.0S*K.OS+A.09.06*K.06+A.09.07*M.07+A.09.08*M.08
+A.09.09*K.09+A.09.10*K.10+A.09.1l*M.ll+A.09.12*M.l2+
A.09.13*K.13+A.09.14*M.14+A.09.1S*M.15+A.09.16*M.l6+
A.09.17*M.17+A.09.18*M.18+A.09.19*K.l9+A.09.20*M.20+
A.09.21*K.21+A.09.22*K.22+A.09.23*M.23+A.09.24*K.24+
A.09.2S*M.25+A.09.26*K.26+A.09.27*M.27+A.09.28*K.28+
A.09.29*K.29)*BETA+B.09+G.09
M.lO = (A.lO.Ol*K.0l+A.l0.02*M.02+A.10.03*M.03+A.10.04*
M.04+A.lO.OS*M.OS+A.10.06*K.06+A.l0.07*M.07+A.10.08*M.08
+A.10.09*M.09+A.lO.lO*M.10+A.lO.ll*M.ll+A.10.12*K.l2+
A.10.13*M.13+A.10.14*M.14+A.10.1S*K.lS+A.l0.16*M.l6+
A.10.17*M.17+A.l0.18*M.18+A.l0.19*K.l9+A.l0.20*M.20+
A.10.21*M.21+A.l0.22~M.22+A.10.23*M.23+A.l0.24*K.24+
A.10.2S*K.25+A.10.26*K.26+A.10.27*K.27+A.l0.28*K.28+
A.10.29*M.29}*8ETA+B.l0+G.l0
M.ll = (A.ll.Ol*M.Ol+A.ll.02*M.02+A.ll.03*M.03+A.ll.04*
M.04+A.ll.OS*M.OS+A.ll.06*M.06+A.11.07*K.07+A.ll.08*M.08
+A.ll.09*K.09+A.ll.lO*M.lO+A.ll.ll*M.ll+A.ll.12*K.l2+
A.ll.13*M.13+A.ll.14*M.14+A.ll.lS*M.lS+A.ll.16*K.l6+
A.l1.17*M.17+A.l1.18*M.18+A.ll.l9*K.l9+A.ll.20*K.20+
A.l1.2l*K.21+A.l1.22*K.22+A.ll.23*K.23+A.ll.24*M.24+
A.11.2S*M.25+A.ll.26*M.26+A.ll.27*K.27+A.ll.28*K.28+
A.l1.29*K.29)*BETA+B.ll+G.ll
M.12 = (A.l2.01*K.Ol+A.12.02*K.02+A.12.03*K.03+A.l2.04*
M.04+A.12.0S*M.OS+A.12.06*K.06+A.12.07*M.07+A.12.08*M.08
+A.l2.09*M.09+A.l2.10*M.10+A.12.11*M.ll+A.12.12*M.l2+
A.12 .13*K.13+A.l2 .14*M.14+A.12 .1S*.M.15+A.12 .16*M.16+
A.12.17*K.17+A.12.18*K.18+A.l2.19*K.l9+A.l2.20*M.20+
A.12.21*K.21+A.12.22*K.22+A.l2.23*K.23+A.l2.24*M.24+
A.12.2S*M.25+A.12.26*K.26+A.l2.27*K.27+A.l2.28*M.28+
A.12.29*M.29}*8ETA+8.12+G.12
I-5
13:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
K.13 = (A.13.01*K.01+A.13.02*K.02+A.13.03*K.03+A.13.04*
K.04+A.13.05*K.05+A.13.06*K.06+A.13.07*K.07+A.13.08*K.08
+A.13.09*K.09+A.13.10*K.10+A.13.11*K.11+A.13.12*K.12+
A.13.13*K.13+A.13.14*K.14+A.13.15*K.15+A.13.16*K.l6+
A.l3.17*K.l7+A.l3.18*K.l8+A.13.19*K.l9+A.l3.20*K.20+
A.l3.2l*K.2l+A.l3.22*K.22+A.l3.23*K.23+A.l3.24*K.24+
A.l3.25*K.25+A.l3.26*K.26+A.l3.27*K.27+A.l3.28*K.28+
A.13.29*K.29)*BETA+B.l3+G.13
14: K.14 = (A.l4.0l*K.01+A.14.02*K.02+A.14.03*K.03+A.14.04*
K.04+A.l4.05*K.05+A.14.06*K.06+A.14.07*K.07+A.l4.08*K.08
+A.14.09*K.09+A.14.10*K.10+A.14.11*K.11+A.14.12*K.12+
A.l4.13*K.13+A.14.14*K.14+A.14.15*K.15+A.14.16*K.16+
A.l4.17*K.17+A.14.18*K.18+A.14.19*K.19+A.14.20*K.20+
A.l4.21*K.2l+A.14.22*K.22+A.14.23*K.23+A.14.24*K.24+
A.l4.25*K.25+A.14.26*K.26+A.14.27*K.27+A.14.28*K.28+
A.l4.29*K.29)*BETA+B.14+G.14
15: K.15 = (A.15.01*K.01+A.15.02*K.02+A.15.03*K.03+A.15.04*
K.04+A.15.05*K.05+A.15.06*K.06+A.15.07*K.07+A.15.08*K.08
+A.l5.09*K.09+A.l5.10*K.10+A.l5.11*K.11+A.15.12*K.12+
A.15.13*K.13+A.15.14*K.14+A.15.15*K.15+A.15.16*K.16+
A.15.17*K.17+A.15.18*K.18+A.15.19*K.19+A.15.20*K.20+
A.15.21*K.21+A.15.22*K.22+A.15.23*K.23+A.15.24*K.24+
A.15.25*K.25+A.15.26*K.26+A.15.27*K.27+A.l5.28*K.28+
A.15.29*K.29)*BETA+B.15+G.15
16: K.16 = (A.16.01*K.Ol+A.16.02*K.02+A.16.03*K.03+A.16.04*
K.04+A.16.05*K.05+A.16.06*K.06+A.16.07*K.07+A.16.08*K.08
+A.16.09*K.09+A.l6.10*K.10+A.16.11*K.1l+A.16.12*K.12+
A.16.13*K.13+A.16.14*K.14+A.16.15*K.15+A.16.16*K.16+
A.16.17*K.17+A.16.18*K.18+A.16.19*K.19+A.16.20*K.20+
A.16.21*K.21+A.16.22*K.22+A.16.23*K.23+A.16.24*K.24+
A.16.25*K.25+A.16.26*K.26+A.16.27*M.27+A.16.28*K.28+
A.16.29*K.29)*BETA+B.16+G.16
17: K.17 = (A.17.01*M.01+A.17.02*K.02+A.17.03*K.03+A.17.04*
K.04+A.17.05*M.05+A.17.06*K.06+A.17.07*K.07+A.17.08*K.08
+A.17.09*K.09+A.17.10*K.10+A.17.11*K.11+A.17.12*M.12+
A.17.13*M.13+A.17.14*K.14+A.17.15*K.15+A.17.16*K.16+
A.17.17*M.l7+A.17.18*M.18+A.17.19*K.19+A.17.20*M.20+
A.17.21*K.21+A.17.22*M.22+A.17.23*K.23+A.17.24*M.24+
A.17.25*K.25+A.17.26*M.26+A.17.27*M.27+A.17.28*M.28+
A.17.29*K.29)*BETA+B.17+G.17
I-6
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-
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-
-
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-
!!>,
I
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-I
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I
18:
19:
20:
21:
22:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
K.18 = (A.18.01*K.01+A.18.02*K.02+A.18.03*K.03+A.18.04*
K.04+A.18.0S*K.05+A.18.06*K.06+A.18.07*K.07+A.18.08*M.08
+A.18.09*K.09+A.18.10*K.10+A.18.11*K.11+A.18.12*K.12+
A.18.13*K.13+A.18.14*K.14+A.18.15*K.15+A.18.16*K.16+
A.18.17*K.17+A.18.18*K.18+A.18.19*K.19+A.18.20*K.20+
A.18.21*K.21+A.18.22*K.22+A.18.23*K.23+A.18.24*K.24+
A.18.2S*K.25+A.18.26*K.26+A.18.27*K.27+A.18.28*K.28+
A.18.29*K.29)*BETA+B.18+G.18
K~19 = (A.19.01*K.01+A.19.02*M.02+A.19.03*K.03+A.19.04*
K.04+A.19.05*K.05+A.19.06*K.06+A.19.07*K.07+A.19.08*K.08
+A.19.09*K.09+A.19.10*K.10+A.19.11*K.11+A.19.12*K.12+
A.19.13*K.13+A.19.14*K.14+A.19.15*K.15+A.19.16*K.16+
A.19.17*K.17+A.19.18*K.18+A.19.19*K.19+A.19.20*K.20+
A.19.21*K.21+A.19.22*K.22+A.19.23*K.23+A.19.24*K.24+
A.19.2S*K.25+A.19.26*K.26+A.19.27*K.27+A.19.28*K.28+
A.19.29*K.29)*BETA+B.19+G.19
K.20 = (A.20.01*K.01+A.20.02*K.02+A.20.03*K.03+A.20.04*
K.04+A.20.05*K.05+A.20.06*K.06+A.20.07*M.07+A.20.08*K.08
+A.20.09*K.09+A.20.10*K.10+A.20.11*K.11+A.20.12*K.12+
A.20.13*K.13+A.20.14*M.14+A.20.15*K.15+A.20.16*K.16+
A.20.17*K.17+A.20.18*K.18+A.20.19*K.19+A.20.20*K.20+
A.20.21*K.21+A.20.22*K.22+A.20.23*K.23+A.20.24*K.24+
A.20.2S*K.25+A.20.26*K.26+A.20.27*K.27+A.20.28*K.28+
A.20.29*K.29)*BETA+B.20+G.20
K.21 = (A.21.01*K.01+A.21.02*K.02+A.21.03*K.03+A.21.04*
K.04+A.21.05*K.05+A.21.06*K.06+A.21.07*K.07+A.21.08*K.08
+A.21.09*K.09+A.21.10*K.10+A.21.11*K.11+A.21.12*K.12+
A.21.13*K.13+A.21.14*K.14+A.21.1S*K.15+A.21.16*K.16+
A.21.17*K.17+A.21.i8*K.18+A.21.19*K.19+A.21.20*K.20+
A.21.21*K.21+A.21.22*K.22+A.21.23*K.23+A.21.24*K.24+
A.21.25*K.25+A.21.26*K.26+A.21.27*K.27+A.21.28*K.28+
A.21.29*K.29)*BETA+B.21+G.21
K.22 = (A.22.01*K.01+A.22.02*K.02+A.22.03*K.03+A.22.04*
K.04+A.22.05*K.05+A.22.06*K.06+A.22.07*K.07+A.22.08*M.08
+A.22.09*K.09+A.22.10*K.10+A.22.11*K.11+A.22.12*K.12+
A.22.13*K.13+A.22.14*K.14+A.22.1S*K.15+A.22.16*K.16+
A.22.17*K.17+A.22.18*K.18+A.22.19*K.19+A.22.20*K.20+
A.22.21*K.21+A.22.22*K.22+A.22.23*K.23+A.22.24*K.24+
A.22.25*K.25+A.22.26*K.26+A.22.27*K.27+A.22.28*K.28+
A.22.29*K.29)*BETA+B.22+G.22
I-7
23:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
M.23 = (A.23.01*M.Ol+A.23.02*M.02+A.23.03*M.03+A.23.04*
M.04+A.23.05*M.05+A.23.06*M.06+A.23.07*M.07+A.23.08*M.08
+A.23.09*M.09+A.23.10*M.10+A.23.11*M.ll+A.23.12*M.12+
A.23.13*M.13+A.23.14*M.14+A.23.15*M.15+A.23.16*M.16+
A.23.17*M.17+A.23.18*M.18+A.23.19*M.19+A.23.20*M.20+
A.23.21*M.21+A.23.22*M.22+A.23.23*M.23+A.23.24*M.24+
A.23.25*M.25+A.23.26*M.26+A.23.27*M.27+A.23.28*M.28+
A.23.29*M.29)*BETA+B.23+G.23
24: M.24 = (A.24.01*M.Ol+A.24.02*M.02+A.24.03*M.03+A.24.04*
M.04+A.24.05*M.OS+A.24.06*M.06+A.24.07*M.07+A.24.08*M.08
+A.24.09*M.09+A.24.10*M.10+A.24.11*M.ll+A.24.12*M.12+
A.24.13*M.~3+A.24.14*M.14+A.24.15*M.15+A.24.16*M.16+
A.24.17*M.17+A.24.18*M.18+A.24.19*M.19+A.24.20*M.20+
A.24.21*M.21+A.24.22*M.22+A.24.23*M.23+A.24.24*M.24+
A.24.25*M.25+A.24.26*M.26+A.24.27*M.27+A.24.28*M.28+
A.24.29*M.29)*BETA+B.24+G.24
25: M.25 = (A.25.01*M.Ol+A.25.02*M.02+A.25.03*M.03+A.25.04*
M.04+A.2S.OS*M.05+A.25.06*M.06+A.25.07*M.07+A.25.08*M.08
+A.25.09*M.09+A.25.10*M.10+A.25.11*M.ll+A.25.12*M.12+
A.25.13*M.13+A.25.14*M.14+A.25.15*M.15+A.25.16*M.16+
A.25.17*M.17+A.25.18*M.18+A.25.19*M.19+A.25.20*M.20+
A.25.21*M.21+A.25.22*M.22+A.25.23*M.23+A.25.24*M.24+
A.25.25*M.25+A.25.26*M.26+A.25.27*M.27+A.25.28*M.28+
A.25.29*M.29)*BETA+B.25+G.25
26:
27:
M.26 = (A.26.0l*M.Ol+A.26.02*M.02+A.26.03*M.03+A.26.04*
M.04+A.26.05*M.05+A.26.06*M.06+A.26.07*M.07+A.26.08*M.08
+A.26.09*M.09+A.26.10*M.10+A.26.11*M.ll+A.26.12*M.12+
A.26.13*M.13+A.26.14*M.14+A.26.15*M.15+A.26.16*M.16+
A.26.17*M.17+A.26.18*M.18+A.26.19*M.19+A.26.20*M.20+
A.26.21*M.21+A.26.22*M.22+A.26.23*M.23+A.26.24*M.24+
A.26.25*M.25+A.26.26*M.26+A.26.27*M.27+A.26.28*M.28+
A.26.29*M.29)*BETA+B.26+G.26
M.27 = (A.27.01*M.Ol+A.27.02*M.02+A.27.03*M.03+A.27.04*
M.04+A.27.05*M.05+A.27.06*M.06+A.27.07*M.07+A.27.08*M.08
+A.27.09*M.09+A.27.10*M.10+A.27.11*M.ll+A.27.12*M.12+
A.27.13*M.13+A.27.14*M.14+A.27.15*M.15+A.27.16*M.16+
A.27.17*M.17+A.27.18*M.18+A.27.19*M.19+A.27.20*M.20+
A.27.21*M.21+A.27.22*M.22+A.27.23*M.23+A.27.24*M.24+
A.27.25*M.25+A.27.26*M.26+A.27.27*M.27+A.27.28*M.28+
A.27.29*M.29)*BETA+B.27+G.27
I-8
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"""' I
I
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. I.
1"'1"
. I
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29:
Support
activity
30:
31:
32:
33:
34:
35:
36:
37:
38:
39:
40:
41:
42:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
M.28 = (A.28.0l*M.Ol+A.28.02*M.02+A.28.03*M.03+A.28.04*
M.04+A.28.05*M.05+A.28.06*M.06+A.28.07*M.07+A.28.08*M.08
+A.28.09*M.09+A.28.10*M.l0+A.28.1l*M.ll+A.28.12*M.l2+
A.28.13*M.l3+A.28.14*M.l4+A.28.15*M.l5+A.28.16*M.l6+
A.28.17*M.l7+A.28.18*M.l8+A~28.19*M.l9+A.28.20*M.20+
A.28.2l*M.2l+A.28.22*M.22+A.28.23*M.23+A.28.24*M.24+
A.28.25*M.25+A.28.26*M.26+A.28.27*M.27+A.28.28*M.28+
A.28.29*M.29)*BETA+B.28+G.28
M.29 = (A.29.0l*M.Ol+A.29.02*M.02+A.29.03*M.03+A.29.04*
M.04+A.29.05*M.05+A.29.06*M.06+A.29.07*M.07+A~29.08*M.08
+A.29.09*M.09+A;29.10*M.l0+A.29.ll*M.ll+A.29.12*M.l2+
A.29.13*M.l3+A.29.14*M.l4+A.29.15*M.l5+A.29.16*M.l6+
A.29.17*M.l7+A.29.18*M.l8+A.29.19*M.l9+A.29.20*M.20+
A.29.2l*M.2l+A.29.22*M.22+A.29.23*M.23+A.29.24*M.24+
A.29.25*M.25+A.29.26*M.26+A.29.27*M.27+A.29.28*M.28+
A.29.29*M.29)*BETA+B.29+G.29
Employment (S.aa.bb) in region aa due to economic
in region bb
S.Ol.Ol --A.Ol.Ol*M.Ol*BETA
S.01.02 --A.Ol.02*M.02*BETA
s .01.03 --A.Ol.03*M.03*BETA
s .01.04 --A.Ol.04*M.04*BETA
S.Ol.OS --A.Ol.OS*M.OS*BETA
s .01.06 --A.Ol.06*M.06*BETA
S.01.07 --A.Ol.07*M.07*BETA
s .01.08 --A.Ol.08*M.08*BETA
s .01.09 --A.Ol.09*M.09*BETA
s .01.10 --A.Ol.lO*M.lO*BETA
S.Ol.ll --A.Ol.ll*M.ll*BETA
8.01.12 --A.01.12*M.l2*BETA
s. 01.13 == A.Ol.l3*M.l3*BETA
I-9
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~\
May 1983
43: s. 01.14 A.Ol.14*M.14*BETA """· --
44: S.01.15 --A.Ol.l5*M.15*BETA -45: s. 01.16 --A.01.16*M.16*BETA
46: 8.01.17 == A.Ol.17*M.17*BETA ~
47: S.Ol.l8 --A.01.18*M.18*BETA
48: S.Ol.19 A.Ol.l9*M.l9*BETA ---
49: s .01. 20 --A.01.20*M.20*BETA
50: s .01. 21 --A.01.21*M.21*BETA
51: s. 01.22 --A.01.22*M.22*BETA
~
52: s .01. 23 --A.01.23*M.23*BETA
53: S.01.24 --A.01.24*M.24*BETA -
54: 8.01.25 --A.01.25*M.25*BETA
""'1
55: 8. 01.26 --A.01.26*M.26*BETA
56: s .01. 27 --A.01.27*M.27*BETA -
57: s .01. 28 --A.01.28*M.28*BETA
58: s .01. 29 --A.Ol.29*M.29*BETA
59: S.02.01 --A.02.01*M.Ol*BETA
60: S.02.02 --A.02.02*M.02*BETA
-
840: S.28.28 --A.28.28*M.28*BETA -
841: 8.28.29 A.28.29*M.29*BETA
-. 842: S.29.01 --A.29.0l*M.Ol*BETA
843: S.29.02 --A.29.02*M.02*BETA
~·
844: 8.29.03 --A.29.03*M.03*BETA
~
I-10
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
845: 8.29.04 == A.29.04*M.04*BETA
846: S.29.05 --A.29.05*M.05*BETA
847: S.29.06 --A.29.06*M.06*BETA
848: S.29.07 --A.29.07*M.07*BETA
849: S.29.08 --A.29.08*M.08*BETA -850: S.29.09 == A.29.09*M.09*BETA
851: S.29.10 --A.29.10*M.10*BETA
852: S.29.11 --A.29.11*M.ll*BETA
853: S.29.12 --A.29.12*M.12*BETA
854: S.29.13 == A.29.13*M.13*BETA -855: S.29.14 == A.29.14*M.14*BETA
856: S.29.15 == A.29.15*M.15*BETA
857: S.29.16 --A.29.16*M.16*BETA
858: S.29.17 --A.29.17*M.17*BETA
859: S.29.18 --A.29.18*M.18*BETA
860: S.29.19 --A.29.19*M.19*BETA
861: S.29.20 == A.29.20*M.20*BETA -862: S.29.21 == A.29.21*M.21*BETA
863: S.29.22 --A.29.22*M.22*BETA
864: S.29.23 --A.29.23*M.23*BETA
865: S.29.24 == A.29.24*M.24*BETA
866: S.29.25 --A.29.25*M.25*BETA
867: 8.29.26 --A.29.26*H.26*BETA
868: S.29.27 == A.29.27*M.27*BETA
869: S.29.28 --A.29.28*M.28*BETA
...,.. 870: 8.29.29 --A.29.29*H.29*BETA
I I
I-ll
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Support Employment (S.aa) in region aa
871:
872:
873:
S.Ol == S.Ol.Ol+S.Ol.02+S.Ol.03+S.Ol.04+S.Ol.05+S.Ol.06+
S.Ol.07+S.Ol.08+S.Ol.09+S.Ol.l0+S.Ol.ll+S.Ol.l2+S.Ol.l3+
S.Ol.l4+S.Ol.l5+S.Ol.l6+S.Ol.l7+S.Ol.l8+S.Ol.l9+S.Ol.20+
S.Ol.2l+S.Ol.22+S.Ol.23+S.Ol.24+S.Ol.25+S.Ol.26+S.Ol.27+
S.Ol.28+S.Ol.29
S.02 == S.02.0l+S.02.02+S.02.03+S.02.04+S.02.05+S.02.06+
S.02.07+S.02.08+S.02.09+S.02.10+S.02.ll+S.02.12+S.02.13+
S.02.14+S.02.15+S.02.16+S.02.17+S.02.18+S.02.19+S.02.20+
S.02.2l+S.02.22+S.02.23+S.02.24+S.02.25+S.02.26+S.02.27+
S.02.28+S.02.29
S.03 == S.03.0l+S.03.02+S.03.03+S.03.04+S.03.05+S.03.06+
S.03.07+S.03.08+S.03.09+S.03.10+S.03.ll+S.03.12+S.03.13+
S.03.14+S.03.15+S.03.16+S.03.17+S.03.18+S.03.19+S.03.20+
S.03.2l+S.03.22+S.03.23+S.03.24+S.03.25+S.03.26+S.03.27+
S.03.28+S.03.29
874: S.04 == S.04.0l+S.04.02+S.04.03+S.04.04+S.04.05+S.04.06+
S.04.07+S.04.08+S.04.09+S.04.10+S.04.ll+S.04.12+S.04.13+
S.04.14+S.04.15+S.04.16+S.04.17+S.04.18+S.04.19+S.04.20+
S.04.2l+S.04.22+S.04.23+S.04.24+S.04.25+S.04.26+S.04.27+
S.04.28+S.04.29
875: S.OS == S.05.0l+S.05.02+S.05.03+S.05.04+S.05.05+S.05.06+
S.05.07+S.05.08+S.05.09+S.05.10+S.05.ll+S.05.12+S.05.13+
S.05.14+S.05.15+S.05.16+S.05.17+S.05.18+S.05.19+S.05.20+
S.05.2l+S.05.22+S.05.23+S.05.24+S.05.25+S.05.26+S.05.27+
S.05.28+S.05.29
876: S.06 == S.06.0l+S.06.02+S.06.03+S.06.04+S.06.05+S.06.06+
S.06.07+S.06.08+S.06.09+S.06.10+S.06.ll+S.06.12+S.06.13+
S.06.14+S.06.15+S.06.16+S.06.17+S.06.18+S.06.19+S.06.20+
S.06.2l+S.06.22+S.06.23+S.06.24+S.06.25+S.06.26+S.06.27+
S.06.28+S.06.29
877: S.07 == S.07.0l+S.07.02+S.07.03+S.07.04+S.07.05+S.07.06+
S.07.07+S.07.08+S.07.09+S.07.10+S.07.ll+S.07.12+S.07.13+
S.07.14+S.07.15+S.07.16+S.07.17+S.07.18+S.07.19+S.07.20+
S.07.2l+S.07.22+S.07.23+S.07.24+S.07.25+S.07.26+S.07.27+
S.07.28+S.07.29
878: S.08 == S.08.0l+S.08.02+S.08.03+S.08.04+S.08.05+S.08.06+
S.08.07+S.08.08+S.08.09+S.08.10+S.08.ll+S.08.12+S.08.13+
S.08.14+S.08.15+S.08.16+S.08.17+S.08.18+S.08.19+S.08.20+
S.08.2l+S.08.22+S.08.23+S.08.24+S.08.25+S.08.26+S.08.27+
S.08.28+S.08.29
I-12
-
-
"""
-
-
-
....
-
.....
-
-
11"1"
i
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
879: S.09 == S.09.01+S.09.02+S.09.03+S.09.04+S.09.05+S.09.06+
S.09.07+S.09.08+S.09.09+S.09.10+S.09.11+S.09.12+S.09.13+
S.09.14+S.09.15+S.09.16+S.09.17+S.09.18+S.09.19+S.09.20+
S.09.21+S.09.22+S.09.23+S.09.24+S.09.25+S.09.26+S.09.27+
S.09.28+S.09.29
880:
881:
882:
883:
S.10 == S.10.01+S.10.02+S.10.03+S.10.04+S.10.05+S.10.06+
S.10.07+S.10.08+S.l0.09+S.10.10+8.10.11+8.10.12+8.10.13+
8.10.14+8.10.15+8.10.16+8.10.17+8.10.18+8.10.19+8.10.20+
8.10.21+8.10.22+8.10.23+8.10.24+8.10.25+8.10.26+8.10.27+
8.10.28+8.10.29
8.11 == 8.11.01~8.11.02+8.11.03+8.11.04+8.11.05+S.l1.06+
8.11.07+8.11.08+S.ll.09+8.11.10+8.11.11+8.11.12+8.11.13+
8.11.14+8.11.15+8.11.16+8.11.17+8.11.18+8.11.19+8.11.20+
S.11.21+S.11.22+S.11.23+S.11.24+8.11.25+S.11.26+8.11.27+
8.11.28+8.11.29
.
8.12 == S.12.01+8.12.02+8.12.03+8.12.04+8.12.05+S.12.06+
S.12.07+8.12.08+8.12.09+S.12.10+S.12.11+S.12.12+8.12.13+
8.12.14+8.12.15+8.12.16+8.12.17+8.12.18+8.12.19+8.12.20+
8.12.21+8.12.22+8.12.23+8.12.24+8.12.25+8.12.26+8.12.27+
8.12.28+8.12.29
8.13 == 8.13.01+8.13.02+8.13.03+8.13.04+8.13.05+8.13.06+
8.13.07+8.13.08+8.13.09+S.13.10+8.13.11+S.13.12+8.13.13+
8.13.14+8.13.15+S.13.16+S.13.17+S.13.18+S.13.19+8.13.20+
S.13.21+S.13.22+8.13.23+S.13.24+8.13.25+8.13.26+8.13.27+
8.13.28+8.13.29
884: S.14 == S.14.01+8.14.02+8.14.03+8.14.04+S.14.05+8.14.06+
8.14.07+S.14.08+S.14.09+S.14.10+8.14.11+S.14.12+S.14.13+
8.14.14+8.14.15+8.14.16+8.14.17+8.14.18+8.14.19+8.14.20+
S.l4.21+8.14.22+8.14.23+8.14.24+S.14.25+8.14.26+S.14.27+
8.14.28+8.14.29
885:
886:
8.15 == 8.15.01+8.15.02+8.15.03+8.15.04+S.15.05+8.15.06+
8.15.07+8.15.08+S.15.09+8.15.10+8.15.11+S.15.12+8.15.13+
8.15.14+S.15.15+8.15.16+8.15.17+8.15.18+8.15.19+8.15.20+
8.15.21+S.15.22+8.15.23+8.15.24+8.15.25+8.15.26+S.15.27+
8.15.28+8.15.29
S.16 == 8.16.01+8.16.02+S.16.03+8.16.04+8.16.05+8.16.06+
8.16.07+S.l6.08+S.l6.09+S.l6.10+S.16.11+8.16.12+8.16.13+
S.l6.14+8.16.15+8.16.16+S.l6.17+S.16.18+8.16.19+S.16.20+
8.16.21+8.16.22+S.16.23+8.16.24+S.16.25+S.16.26+8.16.27+
8.16.28+8.16.29
I-13
887:
888:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
S.l7 == S.l7.0l+S.17.02+S.l7.03+S.l7.04+S.17.05+S.l7.06+
S.17.07+S.l7.08+S.l7.09+S.l7.10+S.l7.ll+S.17.12+S.l7.13+
S.17.14+S.l7.15+S.l7.16+S.17.17+S.17.18+S.l7.19+S.l7.20+
S.17.2l+S.l7.22+S.l7.23+S.17.24+S.l7.25+S.l7.26+S.17.27+
S.l7.28+S.l7.29
S.18 == S.l8.01+S.l8.02+S.18.03+S.18.04+S.l8.05+S.l8.06+
S.l8.07+S.l8.08+S.18.09+S.18.10+S.18.1l+S.l8.12+S.l8.13+
S.l8.14+S.l8.15+S.18.16+S.l8.17+S.18.18+S.18.19+S.l8.20+
S.l8.2l+S.l8.22+S.l8.23+S.l8.24+S.18.25+S.18.26+S.l8.27+
S.18.28+S.l8.29
889: S.l9 == S.l9.0l+S.19.02+S.l9.03+S.l9.04+S.l9.05+S.19.06+
S.l9.07+S.l9.08+S.19.09+S.l9.10+S.l9.11+S.19.12+S.l9.13+
S.19.14+S.19.15+S.l9.16+S.l9.17+S.19.18+S.19.19+S.l9.20+
S.19.2l+S.l9.22+S.l9.23+S.l9.24+S.19.25+S.l9.26+S.l9.27+
8.19.28+8.19.29
890: S.20 == S.20.01+S.20.02+S.20.03+S.20.04+S.20.05+S.20.06+
S.20.07+S.20.08+S.20.09+S.20.10+S.20.1l+S.20.12+S.20.13+
S.20.14+S.20.15+S.20.16+S.20.17+S.20.18+S.20.19+S.20.20+
S.20.2l+S.20.22+S.20.23+S.20.24+S.20.25+S.20.26+S.20.27+
8.20.28+8.20.29
891: S.21 == S.21.0l+S.21.02+S.21.03+S.21.04+S.21.05+S.21.06+
S.21.07+S.21.08+S.21.09+S.21.10+S.2l.ll+S.21.12+S.21.13+
S.21.14+S.21.15+S.21.16+S.21.17+S.21.18+S.21.19+S.21.20+
S.21.21+S.21.22+S.21.23+S.21.24+S.21.25+S.21.26+S.21.27+
S.21.28+S.21.29
892:
893:
S.22 == S.22.01+S.22.02+S.22.03+S.22.04+S.22.05+S.22.06+
S.22.07+S.22.08+S.22.09+S.22.10+S.22.11+S.22.12+S.22.13+
S.22.14+S.22.15+S.22.16+S.22.17+S.22.18+S.22.19+S.22.20+
S.22.2l+S.22.22+S.22.23+S.22.24+S.22.25+S.22.26+S.22.27+
8.22.28+8.22.29
S.23 == S.23.0l+S.23.02+S.23.03+S.23.04+S.23.05+S.23.06+
S.23.07+S.23.08+S.23.09+S.23.10+S.23.ll+S.23.12+S.23.13+
S.23.14+S.23.15+S.23.16+S.23.17+S.23.18+S.23.19+S.23.20+
S.23.2l+S.23.22+S.23.23+S.23.24+S.23.25+S.23.26+S.23.27+
S.23.28+S.23.29
894: S.24 == S.24.0l+S.24.02+S.24.03+S.24.04+S.24.05+S.24.06+
S.24.07+S.24.08+S.24.09+S.24.10+S.24.ll+S.24.12+S.24.13+
S.24.14+S.24.15+S.24.16+S.24.17+S.24.18+S.24.19+S.24.20+
S.24.2l+S.24.22+S.24.23+S.24.24+S.24.25+S.24.26+S.24.27+
S.24.28+S.24.29
I-14
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
r
-
-
-
r I I
-
895:
896:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
S.25 == S.25.0l+S.25.02+S.25.03+S.25.04+S.25.05+S.25.06+
S.25.07+S.25.08+S.25.09+S.25.10+S.25.ll+S.25.12+S.25.13+
S.25.14+S.25.15+S.25.16+S.25.17+S.25.18+S.25.19+S.25.20+
S.25.2l+S.25.22+S.25.23+S.25.24+S.25.25+S.25.26+S.25.27+
8.25.28+8.25.29
S.26 == S.26.0l+S.26.02+S.26.03+S.26.04+S.26.05+S.26.06+
S.26.07+S.26.08+S.26.09+S.26.10+S.26.ll+S.26.12+S.26.13+
S.26.14+S.26.15+S.26.16+S.26.17+S.26.18+S.26.19+S.26.20+
S.26.2l+S.26.22+S.26.23+S.26.24+S.26.25+S.26.26+S.26.27+
S.26.28+S.26.29
897: S.27 == S.27.0l+S.27.02+S.27.03+S.27.04+S.27.05+S.27.06+
S.27.07+S.27.08+S.27.09+S.27.10+S.27.ll+S.27.12+S.27.13+
S.27.14+S.27.15+S.27.16+S.27.17+S.27.18+S.27.19+S.27.20+
S.27.2l+S.27.22+S.27.23+S.27.24+S.27.25+S.27.26+S.27.27+
8.27.28+8.27.29
898: S.28 == S.28.0l+S.28.02+S.28.03+S.28.04+S.28.05+S.28.06+
S.28.07+S.28.08+S.28.09+S.28.10+S.28.ll+S.28.12+S.28.13+
S.28.14+S.28.15+S.28.16+S.28.17+S.28.18+S.28.19+S.28.20+
S.28.2l+S.28.22+S.28.23+S.28.24+S.28.25+S.28.26+S.28.27+
8.28.28+8.28.29
899: S.29 == S.29.0l+S.29.02+S.29.03+S.29.04+S.29.05+S.29.06+
S.29.Q7+S.29.08+S.29.09+S.29.10+S.29.ll+S.29.12+S.29.13+
S.29.14+S.29.15+S.29.16+S.29.17+S.29.18+S.29.19+S.29.20+
S.29.2l+S.29.22+S.29.23+S.29.24+S.29.25+S.29.26+S.29.27+
8.29.28+8.29.29
Aggregate Employment by Type
900:
901:
902:
S.ST == S.Ol+S.02+S.03+S.04+S.05+S.06+S.07+S.08+S.09+
S.l0+S.ll+S.l2+S.l3+S.l4+S.l5+S.l6+S.l7+S.l8+S.l9+S.20+
S.2l+S.22+S.23+S.24+S.25+S.26+S.27+S.28+S.29
8.ST == 8.01+8.02+8.03+8.04+8.05+8.06+8.07+8,08+8.09+
8.10+8.ll+B.l2+8.13+8.14+B.l5+B.l6+B.l7+B.l8+B.l9+B.20+
8.21+8.22+8.23+8.24+8.25+8.26+8.27+8.28+8.29
G.ST == G.Ol+G.02+G.03+G.04+G.05+G.06+G.07+G.08+G.09+
G.l0+G.ll+G.l2+G.l3+G.l4+G.l5+G.l6+G.l7+G.l8+G.l9+G.20+
G.2l+G.22+G.23+G.24+G.25+G.26+G.27+G.28+G.29
903: K.ST == K.Ol+K.02+K.03+K.04+K.05+K.06+K.07+K.08+K.09+
K.l0+K.ll+K.l2+K.l3+K.l4+K.l5+K.l6+K.l7+K.l8+K.l9+K. 20+
K.2l+K.22+K.23+K.24+K.25+K.26+K.27+K.28+K.29
1-15
904:
905:
906:
907:
908:
909:
910:
911:
912:
913:
914:
915:
916:
917:
918:
919:
920:
921:
922:
923:
924:
925:
926:
B.RB
G.RB
S.RB
M.RB
B.NR
G.NR
S.NR
M.NR
B.AM
G.AM
S.AM
K.AM
BAM
GAM
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
B.02+B.09+B.12+B.17+B.21+B.24+B.26
G.02+G.09+G.l2+G.l7+G.2l+G.24+G.26
S.02+S.09+S.12+S.l7+S.21+S.24+S.26
M.02+M.09+M.12+M.17+M.21+M.24+M.26
B.ST-B.RB
G.ST-G.RB
S.ST-S.RB
== M.ST-M.RB
--B.02+B.17
--G.02+G.l7
--S.02+S.l7
== M.02+M.17
--B02+Bl7
--G02+Gl7
BST --B01+B02+B03+B04+B05+B06+B07+B08+B09+B10+Bll+B12+
B13+B14+B15+B16+B17+818+B19+B20+B21+B22+B23+B24+B25+B26+
827+828+829
GST == G0l+G02+G03+G04+G05+G06+G07+G08+G09+Gl0+Gll+Gl2+
Gl3+Gl4+G15+Gl6+Gl7+Gl8+Gl9+G20+G2l+G22+G23+G24+G25+G26+
G27+G28+G29
BRB --B02+B09+B12+B17+B21+B24+B26
BNR --BST-BRB
GRB G02+G09+Gl2+Gl7+G2l+G24+G26
GNR == GST-GRB
G.AG --G.AM+G.2l+G.12
B.AG --B.AM+B.21+B.l2
S.AG --S.AM+S.2l+S.l2
I-16
-
-
.....
-
-
-
....
i"
f-
....
-
-
I
' '
i !
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
927: M.AG --M.AM+M. 21+M.l2
928: G.FG --G.09+G.24
929: B.FG --B.09+B.24
930: S.FG --S.09+S.24
931: M.FG --M.09+M.24
932: GAG --GAM+G2l+Gl2
933: BAG --BAM+B21+B12
934: GFG --G09+G24
935: BFG --809+824
Preliminary Population Estimate (PRE.aa) for region aa
936:
937:
938:
PRE.29 == PM.29*(M.Ol*IM.29.01+M.02*IM.29.02+M.03*
IM.29.03+M.04*IM.29.04+M.OS*IM.29.05+M.06*IM.29.06+M.07*
IM.29.07+M.08*IM.29.08+M.09*IM.29.09+M.lO*IM.29.10+M.ll*
IM.29.ll+M.12*IM.29.12+M.13*IM.29.13+M.14*IM.29.14+M.15*
IM.29.15+M.16*IM.29.16+M.17*IM.29.17+M.18*IM.29.18+M.19*
IM.29.19+M.20*IM.29.20+M.21*IM.29.21+M.22*IM.29.22+M.23*
IM.29.23+M.24*IM.29.24+M.25*IM.29.25+M.26*IM.29.26+M.27*
IM.29.27+M.28*IM.29.28+M.29*IM.29.29)
PRE.28 == PM.28*(M.Ol*IM.28.0l+M.02*IM.28.02+M.03*
IM.28.03+M.04*IM.28.04+M.OS*IM.28.05+M.06*IM.28.06+M.07*
IM.28.07+M.08*IM.28.08+M.09*IM.28.09+M.10*IM.28.10+M.ll*
IM.28.11+M.12*IM.28.12+M.l3*IM.28.13+M.14*IM.28.14+M.15*
IM.28.15+M.16*IM.28.16+M.17*IM.28.17+M.18*IM.28.18+M.19*
IM.28.19+M.20*IM.28.20+M.21*IM.28.21+M.22*IM.28.22+M.23*
IM.28.23+M.24*IM.28.24+M.25*IM.28.25+M.26*IM.28.26+M.27*
IM.28.27+M.28*IM.28.28+M.29*IM.28.29)
PRE.27 == PM.27*(M.Ol*IM.27.01+M.02*IM.27.02+M.03*
IM.27.03+M.04*IM.27.04+M.OS*IM.27.05+M.06*IM.27.06+M.07*
IM.27.07+M.08*IM.27.08+M.09*IM.27.09+M.10*IM.27.10+M.ll*
IM.27.11+M.12*IM.27.12+M.13*IM.27.13+M.14*IM.27.14+M.15*
IM.27.15+M.16*IM.27.16+M.17*IM.27.17+M.18*IM.27.18+M.19*
IM.27.19+M.20*IM.27.20+M.21*IM.27.21+M.22*IM.27.22+M.23*
IM.27.23+M.24*IM.27.24+M.25*IM.27.25+M.26*IM.27.26+M.27*
IM.27.27+M.28*IM.27.28+M.29*IM.27.29)
I-17
939:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
PRE.26 ""= PH.26*(K.Ol*IM.26.01+K.02*IK.26.02+K.03*
IK.26.03+K.04*IK.26.04+K.OS*IK.26.05+K.06*IK.26.06+K.07*
IK.26.07+K.08*IK.26.08+K.09*IK.26.09+K.l0*IK.26.10+K.ll*
IK.26.11+K.12*IK.26.12+K.13*IK.26.13+K.14*IK.26.14+K.15*
IK.2~.15+K.16*IK.26.16+K.17*IK.26.17+K.18*IK.26.18+K.19*
IK.26.19+K.20*IK.26.20+K.21*IK.26.21+K.22*IK.26.22+K.23*
IK.26.23+K.24*IK.26.24+K.25*IK.26.25+K.26*IK.26.26+K.27*
IK.26.27+K.28*IK.26.28+K.29*IK.26.29)
940: PRE.25 == PK.25*(K.01*IK.25.01+K.02*IK.25.02+K.03*
IK.25.03+K.04*IK.25.04+K.OS*IK.25.05+K.06*IK.25.06+K.07*
IK.25.07+K.08*IK.25.08+K.09*IK.25.09+K.10*IK.25.10+K.11*
IK.25.11+K.12*IK.25.12+K.13*IK.25.13+K.14*IK.25.14+K.15*
IK.25.15+K.16*IK.25.16+K.17*IK.25.17+K.18*IK.25.18+K.19*
IK.25.19+K.20*IK.25.20+K.21*IK.25.21+K.22*IK.25.22+K.23*
IK.25.23+K.24*IK.25.24+K.25*IK.25.25+K.26*IK.25.26+K.27*
IK.25.27+K.28*IK.25.28+K.29*IK.25.29)
941: PRE.24 == PK.24*(K.01*IK.24.01+K.02*IK.24.02+K.03*
IK.24.03+K.04*IK.24.04+K.OS*IK.24.05+K.06*IK.24.06+K.07*
IK.24.07+K.08*IK.24.08+K.09*IK.24.09+K.10*IM.24.10+K.11*
IK.24.11+K.12*IK.24.12+K.13*IK.24.13+K.14*IK.24.14+K.15*
IK.24.15+K.16*IK.24.16+K.17*IK.24.17+K.18*IK.24.18+K.19*
IH.24.19+K.20*IK.24.20+K.21*IK.24.21+K.22*IK.24.22+K.23*
IK.24.23+K.24*IK.24.24+K.25*IK.24.25+K.26*IK.24.26+K.27*
IK.24.27+K.28*IK.24.28+K.29*IK.24.29)
942:
943:
PRE.23 == PK.23*(K.01*IK.23.01+K.02*IK.23.02+K.03*
IK.23.03+K.04*IK.23.04+K.OS*IK.23.05+K.06*IK.23.06+K.07*
IK.23.07+K.08*IK.23.08+K.09*IK.23.09+K.10*IK.23.10+K.11*
IK.23.11+K.12*IM.23.12+K.13*IK.23.13+K.14*IK.23.14+K.15*
IK.23.15+K.16*IK.23.16+K.17*IK.23.17+K.18*IK.23.18+K.19*
IK.23.19+K.20*IK.23.20+K.21*IK.23.21+K.22*IK.23.22+K.23*
IK.23.23+K.24*IK.23.24+K.25*IK.23.25+K.26*IK.23.26+K.27*
IK.23.27+K.28*IK.23.28+K.29*IK.23.29)
PRE.22 == PH.22*(K.01*IK.22.01+K.02*IK.22.02+K.03*
IK.22.03+K.04*IK.22.04+K.OS*IK.22.05+K.06*IK.22.06+K.07*
IK.22.07+K.08*IK.22.08+K.09*IK.22.09+K.10*IK.22.10+K.11*
IK.22.11+K.12*IK.22.12+K.13*IK.22.13+K.14*IK.22.14+K.15*
IK.22.15+K.l6*IK.22.16+K.17*IK.22.17+K.18*IK.22.18+K.19*
IK.22.19+K.20*IK.22.20+K.21*IK.22.21+K.22*IK.22.22+K.23*
IK.22.23+K.24*IK.22.24+K.25*IK.22.25+K.26*IK.22.26+K.27*
IK.22.27+K.28*IK.22.28+K.29*IK.22.29)
I-18
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
944:
945:
946:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
PRE.21 == PH.21*(H.Ol*IH.21.0l+H.02*IH.21.02+H.03*
IH.21.03+H.04*IH.21.04+H.05*IH.21.05+H.06*IH.21.06+H.07*
IH.21.07+H.08*IM.21.08+H.09*IM.21.09+H.l0*IH.21.10+H.ll*
IH.2l.ll+H.12*IM.21.12+H.l3*IM.21.13+H.l4*IM.21.14+H.l5*
IH.21.15+H.16*IH.21.16+H.17*IM.21.17+H.l8*IH.21.18+H.l9*
IH.21.19+H.20*IH.21.20+H.21*IM.21.21+H.22*IM.21.22+H.23*
IM.21.23+H.24*IM.21.24+H.25*IH.21.25+H.26*IH.21.26+H.27*
IM.21.27+H.28*IH.21.28+H.29*IH.21.29}
PRE.20 == PM.20*(H.Ol*IH.20.0l+H.02*IM.20.02+H.03*
IH.20.03+H.04*IM.20.04+H.05*IH.20.05+H.06*IM.20.06+H.07*
IM.20.07+H.08*IH.20.08+H.09*IH.20.09+H.l0*IM.20.10+H.ll*
IH.20.1l+H.12*IM.20.12+H.l3*IM.20.13+H.l4*IH.20.14+H.l5*
IH.20.15+H.16*IH.20.16+H.17*IH.20.17+H.l8*IM.20.18+H.l9*
IH.20.19+H.20*IM.20.20+H.21*IH.20.21+H.22*IH.20.22+H.23*
IM.20.23+H.24*IM.20.24+H.25*IH.20.25+H.26*IH.20.26+H.27*
IH.20.27+H.28*IM.20.28+H.29*IM.20.29}
PRE.19 == PH.19*(H.Ol*IM.l9.01+M.02*IH.l9.02+H.03*
IM.l9.03+H.04*IH.19.04+M.05*IM.l9.05+H.06*IM.l9.06+M.07*
IM.19.07+H.08*IH.19.08+H.09*IM.l9.09+H.l0*IM.l9.10+H.ll*
IM.19.1l+H.12*IH.l9.12+H.l3*IH.l9.13+H.l4*IM.l9.14+H.l5*
IH.19.15+H.16*IH.19.16+H.l7*IM.l9.17+H.l8*IM.l9.18+H.l9*
IM.19.19+H.20*IM.19.20+H.21*IM.l9.21+H.22*IH.l9.22+H.23*
IM.19.23+H.24*IH.19.24+H.25*IM.l9.25+H.26*IM.l9.26+H.27*
IM.19.27+H.28*IH.19.28+H.29*IM.l9.29}
947: PRE.l8 == PH.18*(H.Ol*IM.18.0l+H.02*IH.l8.02+H.03*
IH.18.03+H.04*IH.18.04+H.05*IM.l8.05+M.06*IH.l8.06+H.07*
IM.18.07+H.08*IH.18.08+H.09*IM.l8.09+H.l0*IH.l8.10+H.ll*
IH.l8.11+H.12*IM.18.12+H.l3*IH.l8.13+H.l4*IH.l8.14+H.l5*
IH.18.15+H.16*IH.18.16+H.l7*IH.l8.17+H.l8*IM.l8.18+H.l9*
IH.l8.19+H.20*IH.18.20+H.21*IM.l8.21+H.22*IM.l8.22+H.23*
IM.18.23+H.24*IH.18.24+H.25*IH.l8.25+H.26*IH.l8.26+H.27*
IH.18.27+H.28*IH.18.28+H.29*IM.l8.29}
948: PRE.17 == PM.17*(H.Ol*IH.17.0l+H.02*IH.l7.02+H.03*
IH.17.03+H.04*IH.17.04+H.05*IM.l7.05+H.06*IM.l7.06+H.07*
IH.l7.07+H.08*IH.17.08+H.09*IM.l7.Q9+H.l0*IH.l7.10+H.ll*
IH.17.1l+H.12*IH.l7.12+H.l3*IM.l7.13+M.l4*IH.l7.14+H.l5*
IH.17.15+H.16*IM.17.16+H.l7*IM.l7.17+M.l8*IH.l7.18+H.l9*
IH.17.19+H.20*IH.17.20+H.21*IH.l7.21+H.22*IH.l7.22+H.23*
IM.17.23+H.24*IH.17.24+H.25*IH.l7.25+H.26*IH.l7.26+H.27*
IH.17.27+H.28*IH.17.28+H.29*IM.l7.29)
I-19
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
949:
May 1983
PRE.16 z= PM.16*(M.01*IM.16.01+M.02*IM.16.02+M.03*
IM.16.03+M.04*IM.16.04+M.05*IM.16.05+M.06*IM.16.06+M.07*
IM.16.07+M.08*IM.16.08+M.09*IM.16.09+M.10*IM.16.10+M.11*
IM.16.11+M.12*IM.16.12+M.13*IM.16.13+M.14*IM.16.14+M.15*
IM.16.15+M.16*IM.16.16+M.17*IM.16.17+M.18*IM.16.18+M.19*
IM.16.19+M.20*IM.16.20+M.21*IM.16.21+M.22*IM.16.22+M.23*
IM.16.23+M.24*IM.16.24+M.25*IM.16.25+M.26*IM.16.26+M.27*
IM.16.27+M.28*IM.16.28+M.29*IM.16.29)
950: PRE.15 == PM.15*(M.01*IM.15.01+M.02*IM.15.02+M.03*
IM.15.03+M.04*IM.15.04+M.05*IM.15.05+M.06*IM.15.06+M.07*
IM~15.07+M.08*IM.15.08+M.09*IM.15.09+M.10*IM.15.10+M.11*
IM.15.11+M.12*IM.15.12+M.13*IM.15.13+M.14*IM.15.14+M.15*
IM.15.15+M.16*IM.15.16+M.17*IM.15.17+M.18*IM.15.18+M.19*
IM.15.19+M.20*IM.15.20+M.21*IM.15.21+M.22*IM.15.22+M.23*
IM.15.23+M.24*IM.15.24+M.25*IM.15.25+M.26*IM.15.26+M.27*
IM.15.27+M.28*IM.15.28+M.29*IM.15.29)
951: PRE.14 == PM.14*(M.01*IM.14.01+M.02*IM.14.02+M.03*
IM.14.03+M.04*IM.14.04+M.05*IM.14.05+M.06*IM.14.06+M.07*
IM.14.07+M.08*IM.14.08+M.09*IM.14.09+M.10*IM.14.10+M.11*
IM.14.11+M.12*IM.14.12+M.13*IM.14.13+M.14*IM.14.14+M.15*
IM.14.15+M.16*IM.14.16+M.17*IM.14.17+M.18*IM.14.18+M.19*
IM.14.19+M.20*IM.14.20+M.21*IM.14.21+M.22*IM.14.22+M.23*
IM.14.23+M.24*IM.14.24+M.25*IM.14.25+M.26*IM.14.26+M.27*
IM.14.27+M.28*IM.14.28+M.29*IM.14.29)
952:
953:
PRE.13 z= PM.13*(M.01*IM.13.01+M.02*IM.13.02+M.03*
IM.13.03+M.04*IM.13.04+M.05*IM.13.05+M.06*IM.13.06+M.07*
IM.13.07+M.08*IM.13.08+M.09*IM.13.09+M.10*IM.13.10+M.11*
IM.13.11+M.12*IM.13.12+M.13*IM.13.13+M.14*IM.13.14+M.15*
IM.13.15+M.16*IM.13.16+M.17*IM.13.17+M.18*IM.13.18+M.19*
IM.13.19+M.20*IM.13.20+M.21*IM.13.21+M.22*IM.13.22+M.23*
IM.13.23+M.24*IM.13.24+M.25*IM.13.25+M.26*IM.13.26+M.27*
IM.13.27+M.28*IM.13.28+M.29*IM.13.29)
PRE.12 == PM.12*(M.01*IM.12.01+M.02*IM.12.02+M.03*
IM.12.03+M.04*IM.12.04+M.05*IM.12.05+M.06*IM.12.06+M.07*
IM.12.07+M.08*IM.12.08+M.09*IM.12.09+M.10*IM.12.10+M.11*
IM.12.1l+M.12*IM.12.12+M.13*IM.12.13+M.14*IM.12.14+M.15*
IM.12.15+M.16*IM.12.16+M.17*IM.12.17+M.18*IM.12.18+M.19*
IM.12.19+M.20*IM.12.20+M.21*IM.12.21+M.22*IM.12.22+M.23*
IM.12.23+M.24*IM.12.24+M.25*IM.12.25+M.26*IM.12.26+M.27*
IM.12.27+M.28*IM.12.28+M.29*IM.12.29)
I-20
-
-
-
-
!"""
'
-'
'
954:
955:
956:
957:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PRE.ll :::::::: PM.ll*(M.OP'<IM.11.01+M.02*IK.11.02+M.03*
IM.11.03+M.04*IM.11.04+M.05*IM.11.05+M.06*IM.11.06+M.07*
IM.11.07+M.08*IM.11.08+M.09*IM.11.09+M.10*IM.11.10+M.11*
IM.11.11+M.12*IM.11.12+M.13*IM.11.13+M.14*IM.11.14+M.15*
IM.11.15+M.16*IM.11.16+M.17*IM.11.17+M.18*IM.11.18+M.19*
IM.11.19+M.20*IM.11.20+M.21*IM.11.21+M.22*IM.11.22+M.23*
IM.11.23+M.24*IM.11.24+M.25*IM.11.25+M.26*IM.11.26+M.27*
IM.11.27+M.28*IM.11.28+M.29*IM.11.29)
PRE.10 ::::= PM.10*(M.01*IM.10.01+M.02*IM.10.02+M.03*
IM.10.03+M.04*IM.10.04+M.05*IM.10.05+M.06*IM.10.06+M.07*
IM.10.07+M.08*IM.10.08+M.09*IM.10.09+M.10*IM.10.10+M.11*
IM.10.11+M.12*IM.10.12+M.13*IM.10.13+M.14*IM.10.14+M.15*
IM.10.15+M.16*IM.10.16+M.17*IM.10.17+M.18*IM.10.18+M.19*
IM.10.19+M.20*IM.10.20+M.21*IM.10.21+M.22*IM.10.22+M.23*
IM.10.23+M.24*IM.10.24+M.25*IM.10.25+M.26*IM.10.26+M.27*
IM.10.27+M.28*IM.10.28+M.29*IM.10.29)
PRE.09 == PM.09*(M.01*IM.09.01+M.02*IM.09.02+M.03*
IM.09.03+M.04*IM.09.04+M.05*IM.09.05+M.06*IM.09.06+M.07*
IM.09.07+M.08*IM.09.08+M.09*IK.09.09+M.10*IM.09.10+M.11*
IM.09.11+M.12*IM.09.12+M.13*IM.09.13+M.14*IM.09.14+M.15*
IM.09.15+M.16*IM.09.16+M.17*IM.09.17+M.18*IM.09.18+M.19*
IM.09.19+K.20*IK.09.20+M.21*IK.09.21+K.22*IM.09.22+M.23*
IK.09.23+K.24*IK.09.24+K.25*IK.09.25+K.26*IK.09.26+K.27*
IM.09.27+K.28*IK.09.28+K.29*IK.09.29)
PRE.08 ::::= PK.08*(M.01*IK.08.01+K.02*IK.08.02+K.03*
IM.08.03+K.04*IK.08.04+K.05*IM.08.05+K.06*IM.08.06+K.07*
IK.08.07+K.08*IK.08.08+K.09*IK.08.09+K.10*IM.08.10+K.11*
IM.08.11+K.12*IK.08.12+K.13*IK.08.13+K.14*IK.08.14+K.15*
IK.08.15+K.16*IK.08.16+K.17*IK.08.17+M.18*IK.08.18+K.19*
IM.08.19+K.20*IM.08.20+M.21*IK.08.21+K.22*IK.08.22+K.23*
IK.08.23+M.24*IM.08.24+K.25*IK.08.25+K.26*IK.08.26+K.27*
IK.08.27+K.28*IK.08.28+K.29*IK.08.29)
958: PRE.07 == PM.07*(K.01*IK.07.01+K.02*IK.07.02+M.03*
IK.07.03+M.04*IK.07.04+K.05*IK.07.05+K.06*IK.07.06+K.07*
IK.07.07+K.08*IK.07.08+K.09*IK.07.09+K.10*IM.07.10+K.11*
IM.07.11+K.12*IM.07.12+K.13*IK.07.13+K.14*IK.07.14+M.15*
IM.07.15+K.16*IK.07.16+M.17*IM.07.17+K.18*IK.07.18+M.19*
IM.07.19+M.20*IK.07.20+K.21*IK.07.21+K.22*IM.07.22+M.23*
IM.07.23+K.24*IK.07.24+K.25*IK.07.25+K.26*IK.07.26+K.27*
IK.07.27+M.28*IK.07.28+M.29*IM.07.29)
I-21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
959: PRE.06 == PM.06~(M.Ol~IM.06.01+M.02~IM.06.02+M.03*
IM.06.03+M.04~IM.06.04+M.OS~IM.06.05+M.06~IM.06.06+M.07~
IM.06.07+M.08~IM.06.08+M.09~IM.06.09+M.10~IM.06.10+M.ll~
IM.06.11+M.12~IM.06.12+M.13~IM.06.13+M.l4~IM.06.14+M.15*
IM.06.15+M.l6~IM.06.16+M.17~IM.06.17+M.18~IM.06.18+M.19*
IM.06.19+M.20~IM.06.20+M.21~IM.06.21+M.22~IM.06.22+M.23~
IM.06.23+M.24~IM.06.24+M.25~IM.06.25+M.26~IM.06.26+M.27~
IM.06.27+M.28~IM.06.28+M.29~IM.06.29)
960: PRE.OS == PM.OS~(M.Ol~IM.OS.Ol+M.02~IM.05.02+M.03*
IM.05.03+M.04~IM.05.04+M.OS~IM.05.05+M.06~IM.05.06+M.07~
IM.05.07+M.08~IM.05.08+M.09~IM.05.09+M.lO~IM.05.10+M.ll~
IM.OS.ll+M.12~IM.05.12+M.13~IM.05.13+M.14*IM.05.14+M.15~
IM.05.15+M.16~IM.05.16+M.17~IM.05.17+M.18~IM.05.18+M.19~
IM.05.19+M.20~IM.05.20+M.2l~IM.05.21+M.22~IM.05.22+M.23~
IM.05.23+M.24~IM.05.24+M.25~IM.05.25+M.26~IM.05.26+M.27~
IM.05.27+M.28~IM.05.28+M.29~IM.05.29)
961: PRE.04 == PM.04~(M.Ol~IM.04.01+M.02~IM.04.02+M.03~
IM.04.03+M.04~IM.04.04+M.OS~IM.04.05+M.06*IM.04.06+M.07*
IM.04.07+M.08~IM.04.08+M.09~IM.04.09+M.lO~IM.04.10+M.ll~
IM.04.ll+M.l2~IM.04.12+M.13~IM.04.13+M.14~IM.04.14+M.15~
IM.04.15+M.16~IM.04.16+M.17~IM.04.17+M.l8~IM.04.18+M.19~
IM.04.19+M.20~IM.04.20+M.21~IM.04.2l+M.22~IM.04.22+M.23~
IM.04.23+M.24~IM.04.24+M.25~IM.04.25+M.26~IM.04.26+M.27~
IM.04.27+M.28~IM.04.28+M.29~IM.04.29)
962: PRE.03 == PM.03~(M.Ol~IM.03.01+M.02~IM.03.02+M.03*
IM.03.03+M.04~IM.03.04+M.OS~IM.03.05+M.06~IM.03.06+M.07*
IM.03.07+M.08~IM.03.08+M.09~IM.03.09+M.10~IM.03.10+M.ll~
IM.03.11+M.12~IM.03.12+M.13~IM.03.13+M.14~IM.03.14+M.l5*
IM.03.15+M.16*IM.03.16+M.17~IM.03.17+M.18~IM.03.18+M.19*
IM.03.19+M.20~IM.03.20+M.21~IM.03.21+M.22*IM.03.22+M.23*
IM.03.23+M.24~IM.03.24+M.25~IM.03.25+M.26~IM.03.26+M.27~
IM.03.27+M.28~IM.03.28+M.29*IM.03.29)
963~ PRE.02 == PM.02~(M.Ol~IM.02.~1+M.02~IM.02.02+M.03*
IM.02.03+M.04~IM.02.04+M.OS~IM.02.05+M.06*IM.02.06+M.07~
IM.02.07+M.08~IM.02.08+M.09~IM.02.09+M.l0~IM.02.10+M.ll~
IM.02.11+M.12~IM.02.12+M.l3~IM.02.13+M.14~IM.02.14+M.15*
IM.02.15+M.16~IM.02.16+M.17~IM.02.17+M.18~IM.02.18+M.19*
IM.02.19+M.20~IM.02.20+M.21~IM.02.21+M.22~IM.02.22+M.23*
IM.02.23+M.24~IM.02.24+M.25~IM.02.25+M.26~IM.02.26+M.27~
IM.02.27+M.28~IM.02.28+M.29~IM.02.29)
1-22
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I"'"'
,_
,....
-
,....,
!""'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
964: PRE.Ol := PM.Ol*(M.Ol*IM.Ol.Ol+M.02*IM.01.02+M.03*
IM.01.03+M.04*IM.01.04+M.05*IM.01.05+M.06*IM.Ol.06+M.07*
IM.01.07+M.08*IM.01.08+M.09*IM.01.09+M.10*IM.Ol.l0+M.ll*
IM.Ol.ll+M.12*IM.Ol.l2+M.l3*IM.Ol.13+M.14*IM.Ol.l4+M.l5*
IM.01.15+M.16*IM.01.16+M.17*IM.Ol.l7+M.l8*IM.Ol.l8+M.l9*
IM.01.19+M.20*IM.01.20+M.21*IM.Ol.21+M.22*IH.Ol.22+M.23*
IM.01.23+M.24*IM.01.24+M.25*IM.01.25+M.26*IM.01.26+M.27*
IM.01.27+M.28*IM.01.28+M.29*IM.01.29)
965:
966:
Population
967:
968:
969:
970:
971:
972:
973:
974:
975:
976:
977:
978:
979:
980:
PRE.ST == PRE.Ol+PRE.02+PRE.03+PRE.04+PRE.05+PRE.06+
PRE.07+PRE.08+PRE.09+PRE.10+PRE.ll+PRE.l2+PRE.13+PRE.l4+
PRE.15+PRE.l6+PRE.17+PRE.l8+PRE.l9+PRE.20+PRE.21+PRE.22+
PRE.23+PRE.24+PRE.25+PRE.26+PRE.27+PRE.28+PRE.29
ADJ --POP/PRE.ST
(P.aa) in region a a (1970 Census Divisions)
P.29 --PRE.29*ADJ
P.28 --PRE.28*ADJ
P.27 --PRE.27*ADJ
P.26 --PRE.26*ADJ
P.25 --PRE.25*ADJ
P.24 --PRE.24*ADJ
P.23 --PRE.23*ADJ
P.22 --PRE.22*ADJ
P.21 --PRE.21*ADJ
P.20 --PRE.20*ADJ
P.19 --PRE.19*ADJ
P.18 --PRE.18*ADJ
P.17 --PRE.17*ADJ
P.16 PRE.l6*ADJ
I-23
I-24
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
Population (PCEN.cc) in region cc (1980 Census Divisions)
1002: PCEN.01 --P.04
1003: PCEN.02 --P.14
I'""' 1004: PCEN.03 P.18 --
1005: PCEN.04 --P.29+P.16~PC.04.16+P.25~PC.04.25
1006: PCEN.05 --P.09
1007: PCEN.06 = P.24+P.25~PC.06.25
1008: PCEN.07 --P.27
1009: PCEN.08 --P.05+P.16~PC.08.16
1010: PCEN.09 --P.07
1011: PCEN.10 --P.06
1012: PCEN.ll --P.01
1013: PCEN.12 --P.17
1014: PCEN.13 --P.02
1015: PCEN.14 --P.12+P.21 -1016: PCEN.15 --P.15
1017: PCEN.16 --P.08+P.26 -
1018: PCEN.17 --P.23+P.03
1019: PCEN.18 --P.10
1020: PCEN.19 --P.ll -1021: PCEN.20 --P.22
1022: PCEN.21 --P.28 -1023: PCEN.22 --P.20+P.19
1024: PCEN.23 --P.l3
I-25
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -Preliminary Household Estimate (HPRE.cc) for region cc
1025: HPRE.Ol --(PCEN.Ol-PGQ.Ol)/HHSZ.Ol
~""'":
1026: HPRE.02 --(PCEN.02-PGQ.02}/HHSZ.02
1027: HPRE.03 --(PCEN.03-PGQ.03)/HHSZ.03 -
1028: HPRE.04 --(PCEN.04-PGQ.04}/HHSZ.04 -1029: HPRE.05 --(PCEN.05-PGQ.05}/HHSZ.05
1030: HPRE.06 --(PCEN.06-PGQ.06}/HHSZ.06
1031: HPRE.07 --(PCEN.07-PGQ.07}/HHSZ.07
1032: HPRE.08 --(PCEN.08-PGQ.08}/HHSZ.08 r~
1033: HPRE.09 --0 -1034: HPRE.lO --(PCEN.lO-PGQ.lO}/HHSZ.lO
1035: HPRE.ll --(PCEN.ll-PGQ.ll}/HHSZ.ll
1036: HPRE.l2 --(PCEN.l2-PGQ.l2)/HHSZ.l2
1037: HPRE.l3 --(PCEN.l3-PGQ.l3}/HHSZ.l3
1038: HPRE.l4 --(PCEN.l4-PGQ.l4}/HHSZ.l4
1039: HPRE.l5 --(PCEN.l5-PGQ.l5)/HHSZ.l5 -
1040: HPRE.l6 --(PCEN.l6-PGQ.l6}/HHSZ.l6 -1041: HPRE.l7 == 0
1042: HPRE.l8 --0
1043: HPRE.l9 --(PCEN.l9-PGQ.l9}/HHSZ.l9 -1044: HPRE.20 --0
1045: HPRE.21 == 0
1046: HPRE.22 --0
1047: HPRE.23 == 0 -·
I-26 -
1048:
1049: -
Households
1050:
!""' 1051:
1052: -1053:
I""" 1054:
1055:
'""" 1056:
1057:
~"""'
1058:
1059:
1060:
!"""' 1061:
1062:
F"·
1063:
1064:
1065:
1066:
1067:
1"'1'
i 1068:
' I
F'i" 1069:
I
i'i
!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
HPRE.ST == HPRE.01+HPRE.02+HPRE.03+HPRE.04+HPRE.05+
HPRE.06+HPRE.07+HPRE.08+HPRE.09+HPRE.10+HPRE.11+HPRE.12+
HPRE.13+HPRE.14+HPRE.15+HPRE.16+HPRE.17+HPRE.18+HPRE.19+
HPRE.20+HPRE.21+HPRE.22+HPRE.23
ADJHH == HH/HPRE.ST
(HHCEN.cc) for region cc (1980 Census Divisions)
HHCEN.01 --HPRE.01*ADJHH
HHCEN.02 --HPRE.02*ADJHH
HHCEN.03 --HPRE.03*ADJHH
HHCEN.04 --HPRE.04*ADJHH
HHCEN.05 --HPRE.05*ADJHH
HHCEN.06 --HPRE.06*ADJHH
HHCEN.07 --HPRE.07*ADJHH
HHCEN.08 --HPRE.08*ADJHH
HHCEN.09 --HPRE.09*ADJHH
HHCEN.10 --HPRE.10*ADJHH
HHCEN.11 --HPRE. ll*ADJHH
HHCEN.12 --HPRE.12*ADJHH
HHCEN.13 --HPRE.13*ADJHH
HHCEN.14 --HPRE.14*ADJHH
HHCEN.15 --HPRE.15*ADJHH
HHCEN.16 --HPRE.16*ADJHH
HHCEN.17 --HPRE.17*ADJHH
HHCEN.18 HPRE.18*ADJHH
HHCEN.19 --HPRE.19*ADJHH
HHCEN.20 --HPRE.20*ADJHH
I-27
1070:
1071:
1072:
1073:
1074:
1075:
1076:
1077:
1078:
Households
1079:
1080:
1081:
1082:
HHCEN.21 --HPRE.21~ADJHH
HHCEN.22 --HPRE.22*ADJHH
HHCEN.23 --HPRE.23*ADJHH
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
HHCEN.ST --HHCEN.Ol+HHCEN.02+HHCEN.03+HHCEN.04+HHCEN.OS
+HHCEN.06+HHCEN.07+HHCEN.08+HHCEN.09+HHCEN.l0+HHCEN.ll+
HHCEN.12+HHCEN.l3+HHCEN.14+HHCEN.15+HHCEN.16+HHCEN.17+
HHCEN.18+HHCEN.l9+HHCEN.20+HHCEN.21+HHCEN.22+HHCEN.23
B. IR --B.RB-8.26
G.IR --G.RB-G.26
S.IR --S.RB-S.26
M.IR --M. RB-M. 26
P.IR --P.RB-P.26
(HH.aa) in region a a (1970 Census Divisions)
HH.AM --HHCEN.12+HHCEN.13
HH.AG --HH.AM+HHCEN.l4
HH.FG --HHCEN.05+HHCEN.06*(P.24/PCEN.06)
HH.IR --HH.AG+HH.FG
I-28
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-
--
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation I
May 1983
PARAMETERS:
A.Ol.Ol 0.16 A.Ol.02 0. A. 01.03 0.
A.01.04 o. A. 01.05 0. A. 01.06 0.
A.01.07 o. A.01.08 0. A.Ol.09 0.
A.Ol.lO o. A.Ol.ll o. A. 01.12 0.
A. 01.13 0. A. 01.14 o. A. 01.15 0.
!""" A.01.16 0. A.01.17 0. A. 01.18 0.
A.01.19 o. A.01.20 o. A.Ol. 21 0.
A. 01.22 0. A. 01.23 0. A. 01.24 0.
/"""
A. 01.25 0. A. 01.26 o. A. 01.27 0.
A. 01.28 0. A. 01.29 0. A.02.01 0.84
A.02.02 1. A.02.03 o. A.02.04 0. 73
f'«" A.02.05 o. A.02.06 0.44 A.02.07 o.
A.02.08 0.41 A.02.09 0. A.02.10 0.
A.02.11 0.19 A.02.12 0.08 A.02.13 0. ,.,.., A.02.14 0.01 A.02.15 0.43 A.02.16 o.
A.02.17 0. A.02.18 0. A.02.19 0.
A.02.20 0. A.02-.21 0.28 A.02.22 o.
~-A.02.23 0. A.02.24 0.7 A.02.25 0.
A.02.26 0.21 A.02.27 0. A.02.28 o.
A.02.29 0.25 A.03.01 0. A.03.02 0.
:~ A.03.03 0. A.03.04 0. A.03.05 0.
A.03.06 o. A.03.07 0. A.03.08 0.
A.03.09 0. A.03.10 0. A.03.11 0.
A.03.12 0. A.03.13 0. A.03.14 0.
A.03.15 0. A.03.16 0. A.03.17 0.
A.03.18 o. A.03.19 0. A.03.20 0.
!"""' A.03.21 0. A.03.22 0. A.03.23 o.
A.03.24 0. A.03.25 0. A.03.26 0.
A.03.27 0. A.03.28 0. A.03.29 0.
A.04.01 0. A.04.02 0. A.04.03 0.
A.04.04 0.27 A.04.05 0. A.04.06 0.
A.04.07 o. A.04.08 0. A.04.09 0.
A.04.10 0. A. 04.11 0. A.04.12 o.
A.04.13 0. A.04.14 0. A.04.15 0.
A.04.16 0. A.04.17 0. A.04.18 0. -A.04.19 0. A.04.20 0. A.04.21 0.
A.04.22 o. A.04.23 0. A.04.24 0.
A.04.25 0. A.04.26 0. A.04.27 0. .... A.04.28 0. A.04.29 0. A.05.01 0 .
A.05.02 o. A.05.03 0. A.05.04 0.
A.05.05 1. A.05.06 o. A.05.07 0.
A.05.08 o. A.05.09 o. A.05.10 0.
A.05.11 0. A.05.12 0. A.05.13 o.
A.05.14 0. A.05.15 o. A.05.16 0.
I"""
I-29
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
A.05.17 0. A.OS.l8 0. A.OS.l9 0. -A.05.20 0. A.OS.21 0. A.05.22 0.
A.05.23 o. A.05.24 o. A.05.25 o.
A.05.26 0. A.OS.27 0.49 A.05.28 0.
A.05.29 0. A.06.01 0. -· A.06.02 0.
A.06.03 0. A.06.04 0. A.06.05 0.
A.06.06 0.56 A.06.07 0. A.06.08 0.
A.06.09 0. A.06.10 0. A.06 .11 0. ..-;
A.06.12 0. A.06.13 0. A.06.14 0.
A.06.15 0. A.06.16 0. A.06.17 0.
A.06.18 0. A.06.19 0. A.06.20 0.
A.06.21 0. A.06.22 0. A.06.23 0.
A.06.24 0. A.06.25 o. A.06.26 0.
A.06.27 0. A.06.28 0. A.06.29 0. -A.07.01 0. A.07.02 0. A.07.03 0.
A.07.04 0. A.07.05 0. A.07.06 0.
A.07.07 0. A.07.08 0. A.07.09 0. -A.07.10 o. A.07.11 0. A.07.12 0.
A.07.13 o. A.07.14 o. A.07.15 0. -A.07.16 0. A.07.17 0. A.07.18 0.
A.07.19 0. A.07.20 0. A.07.21 0.
A.07.22 0. A.07.23 0. A.07.24 0.
A.07.25 0. A.07.26 0. A.07.27 0. -A.07.28 0. A.07.29 0. A.08.01 0.
A.08.02 o. A.08.03 0. A.08.04 0.
A.08.05 0. A.08.06 o. A.08.07 0. -A.08.08 0. 59 A.08.09 0. A.08.10 0.
A.08.11 o. A.08.12 0. A.08.13 0.
A.08.14 0. A.08.15 0. A.08.16 0. -A.08.17 0. A.08.18 0. A.08.19 0.
A.08.20 0. A.08. 21 0. A.08.22 0.
A.08.23 0. A.08.24 0. A.08.25 0.
_,
A.08.26 o. A.08.27 o. A.08.28 0.
A.08.29 0. A.09.01 0. A.09.02 0.
A.09.03 0. A.09.04 0. A.09.05 0.
A.09.06 0. A.09.07 0. A.09.08 0.
A.09.09 1. A.09.10 0. A.09.11 0.
A.09.12 0. A.09.13 o. A.09.14 0. -
A.09.15 o. A.09.16 0.45 A.09.17 0.
A.09.18 0. A.09.19 o. A.09.20 0.
A.09.21 o. A.09.22 0. A.09.23 o.
A.09.24 0. A.09.25 0.41 A.09.26 0.
A.09.27 0. A.09.28 0. A.09.29 0.24
A.lO.Ol 0. A.10.02 0. A.10.03 0. '"""! A.l0.04. 0. A.lO.OS 0. A.l0.06 0.
A.l0.07 0. A.10.08 0. A.10.09 0.
I-30
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
I""" Documentation MAP
May 1983
A.10.10 0. A.lO.ll o. A.10.12 o.
A.10.13 o. A.10.14 0. A.10.15 o.
A.10.16 0. A.10.17 0. A.10.18 0.
,-A.10.19 o. A.10.20 o. A.10.21 0.
A.10.22 0. A.10.23 0. A.10.24 o.
A.10.25 o. A.10.26 0. A.10.27 o.
A.10.28 o. A.l0.29 o. A.ll.Ol 0. ,.,..
A.ll.02 0. A.11.03 0. A.11. 04 0.
A.ll.OS 0. A.ll. 06 0. A.ll. 07 0.
A.ll.08 0. A.ll. 09 0. A.11.10 0.
A.ll.ll 0.81 A.ll.12 0. A.ll.13 0.
A.11.14 o. A.ll.lS 0. A.ll.16 0. -A.11.17 0. A.ll.18 0. A.ll.19 0.
A.ll. 20 0. A.11. 21 0. A.ll.22 0.
A.ll.23 o. A.ll.24 o. A.ll.25 0.
A.ll.26 0. A.ll.27 0. A.ll.28 0.
A.ll. 29 0. A.12.01 0. A.12.02 ,0.
A.12.03 o. A.12.04 o. A.12.05 0.
A.12.06 0. A.12.07 0. A.12.08 0. ,-
A.12.09 0. A.12.10 0. A.l2.11 0.
A.12.12 0.92 A.12.13 0. A.12.14 0.
A.l2.15 0. A.l2.16 o. A.12.17 0.
A.12.18 0. A.12.19 0. A.l2.20 0.
A.12.21 0. A.12.22 0. A.12.23 0.
A.12.24 o. A.12.25 o. A.12.26 0.
I""" A.12.27 o. A.12.28 0. A.12.29 0.
A.13.01 o. A.13.02 0. A.13.03 0.
A .. 13.04 0. A.13.05 0. A.13.06 0. ,....
I A.13.07 0. A.13.08 o .. A.13.09 0.
A.13.10 0. A.13.ll 0. A.13.12 0.
A.13.13 0. A.13.14 0. A.13.15 o.
A.13.16 0. A.13.17 0. A.13.18 0.
A.13.19 o. A.13.20 0. A.13.21 0.
A.13.22 o. A.13.23 0. A.13.24 0,
I""'
I A.13.25 o. A.13.26 0. A.13.27 o.
I A.13.28 0. A.13.29 0. A.14.01 0.
A.14.0~ o. A.14.03 o. A.14.04 o.
~
A.14.05 0. A.14.06 o. A.14.07 0.
A.14.08 0. A.14.09 o. A.14.10 o.
A.14.11 0. A.14.12 o. A.14.13 0.
A.14.14 o. 71 A.14.15 o. A.14.16 0.
A.14.17 o. A.14.18 0. A.14.19 o.
A.14.20 o. A.14.21 o. A.14.22 0.
!'r A.14.23 0. A.14.24 0. A.14.25 o.
j, I · A.14.26 o. A.14.27 o. A.14.28 o. '' I i
A.14.29 0. A.lS.Ol o. A.15.02 o.
I-31
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
A.l5.03 0. A.lS. 04 0. A.lS.OS 0.
A.l5.06 0. A.l5.07 0. A.lS. 08 o. -A.l5.09 0. A.lS.lO 0. A.lS.ll 0.
A.l5.12 0. A.l5.13 0. A.l5.14 0.
A.lS.lS 0.57 A.l5.16 0. A.l5.17 0. -A.l5.18 o. A.l5.19 0. A.l5.20 0.
A.l5.21 0. A.l5.22 0. A.l5.23 0.
A.l5.24 0. A.l5.25 0. A.l5.26 0.
A.l5.27 0. A.l5.28 0. A.l5.29 o.
A.l6.01 0. A.l6.02 0. A.l6.03 0.
A.l6.04 o. A.l6.0S o. A.l6.06 0. /1'11!1
A.l6.07 0. A.l6.08 0. A.l6.09 0.
A.l6.10 0. A.l6.11 0. A.l6.12 0.
A.l6.13 0. A.l6.14 o. A.l6.15 0. """1 A.l6.16 o.ss A.l6.17 0. A.l6.18 0.
A.l6.19 0. A.l6.20 o. A.l6.21 0.
A.l6.22 0. A.l6.23 o. A.l6.24 0.
A.l6.25 0. A.l6.26 0. A.l6.27 0. -' A.l6.28 0. A.l6.29 0. A.l7.01 0.
A.l7.02 0. A.l7. 03 0. A.l7.04 0.
A.l7.05 0. A.l7.06 0. A.l7.07 0.
A.l7 .08 0. A.l7. 09 0. A.l7.10 0.
A.l7.11 o. A.l7.12 0. A.l7.13 0. -A.l7.14 0. A.l7.15 0. A.l7.16 0.
A.l7.17 1. A.l7.18 0. A.l7.19 0.
A.l7 .20 0. A.l7.21 o. A.l7.22 o.
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1-32
I-33
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -' May 1983
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I-34
Institute of Social
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1-35
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
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1-36 -'
r>W·
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
F" MAP Documentation
May 1983
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I-37
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
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I-38 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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I-39
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation _,
May 1983
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IM.26.08 o. IM.26.09 o. IM.26.10 0. -IM.26.11 o. IM.26.12 0. IM.26.13 0.
IM.26.14 o. IM.26.15 o. IK.26.16 0.
IM.26.17 0. IM.26.18 0. IM.26.19 0.
IM.26.20 0. IM.26.21 0. IM.26.22 o.
IM.26.23 0. IM.26.24 0. IK. 26.25 0.
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APPENDIX J.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
A large number of sensitivity tests were run using the MAP
economic model to gauge the sensitivity of the results to variations
in (1) the economic development scenario, ( 2) national economic
growth assumptions, (3) state fiscal v-ariable assumptions, and
(4) model coefficient (regression-determined) and parameter
(nonstochastically-determined) values, as well as model specifi-
cation (form of equations).!
The procedure for running the tests involved four steps. The
first was to compile a list of those input variables, parameters,
and model structural features, variations of which had previously
been shown to affect, were suspected to affect, or might be thought
to affect the level of MAP economic model output variables. This
resulted in a list of about 29 different cases--including variables
(data vectors) and parameters (or parameter sets)--for analysis.
The second step was to choose for each variable or parameter the
lowest and highest possible values which might be conceivable in the
year 2000. The idea was to bracket the most likely value, used in
the control simulation, with the effective end points of the
distribution of the variable. Choosing these values was, of
necessity, a subjective exercise based upon a combination of
historical patterns, knowledge of the economy and its structure, and
statistics. For each case examined, the most likely lowest and
highest values used are shown in Table J.l.2
!These tests were based upon a version of the model, A83.1,
which was used to generate projections in February 1983. The model,
A.83.1SEN, input data files A.83.1SEN and A83SEN, and control
program, &A83RUNSE, are similar to those used to produce the
projections for this report. The model gives slightly different
results, but this does not materially affect the results of this
analysis which are applicable to interpreting the results of model
version A83.2.
2In general, a data vector was adjusted so that it trended
over time from its actual 1982 value to the year 2000 value, while
parameters and coefficients were set at their alternative value for
the entire range of simulation. The only exception was the
parameter LFPART, which was trended toward its 2000 value of .68.
0!0!111
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
Hay 1983
TABLE J. 1. MAP SENSITIVITY TESTS RESULTS ·-·
Case Variable Value in 2000 (000) Households in 2000 (000)
~
Lowest Most likely Highest lowest Highest
"""' ExQgenous Emplo~nt Variables
_,
Control Case 215.824(a)
1 Petroleum (EMP9) 3.990 9.911 19.107 200.458 229.782
2 Hi 1 i tary (EMGH) 16.892 23.323 33.000 209.936 224.575
3 Tourists 1066 1566 2566 209.724 224.567 ~·
4 Gasline Construction
(1994 Peak Completion) 221.725
5 Current Manufacturing -· (EHHX2) 8.205 12.122 16.000 210.106 220.833
6 Enclave Construction
(EHCNXl) 0 1.000 2.000 212.523 217.971 ~ 7 Federal Civilian
(EMGC) 17.800 20.019 21. 719 212.372 217.962
8 Fish Harvesting
(EHFISH) 4.536 7.096 9. 192 213.557 217.744 ~
9 Construction (EHCNX2) 0 0 1.000 215. 119 217.579
10 Agriculture (EMAGRI) . 160 .508 2.000 215.436 217.352
11 Pipelines (EHT9X) 1.100 1.968 2.968 214.306 217.223
12 High Wage Hanu-
facturing (EHHXl) 0 0 .486 215.824 216.610
National Economic Variables
13 Rea 1 Wage Growth -(GRRWEUS) .005 .01 .015 211.335 223.723
14 Unemployment (UUS) .05 .06 .075 211.161 222.178
15 Price Level Growth -(GRUSCPI) .09 .065 .05 205.924 222.305
16 Price Level Growth
with Petroleum
Revenues Adjusted .09 .065 .OS 212.080 216.486
17 Real Income Growth
(GRDIRPU) .005 .015 .025 215.493 216.272
(a) In 1981 households total 137.018.
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE J. 1. (continued)
State Fiscal Variables -case Variable Rate Households in 2000 (000)
r Lowest Host likely Highest lowest Highest
!"""' 18 Petroleum Revenues
(RPTS, RPRY, RTCSPX} 10\ 50\ 901. 195.969 224.855
l8a Post 1999 Petroleum Revenues
(Extrapolation Rate -
period of
calculation) 1995-99 1997-99 241.491 (2010} 243.218(2010}
19 Operations -
Capita 1 Sp 1 it
"""' (5/6 Operations,
1/6 capital) 219.958
Hodel Parameters
20 Average Household
!"""' Size (b) 2.932 2.549 2.2 187.631 250.062
21 labor Force
I""' Participation Rate
LFPART .9338 .78 .68 177.84 238.145
22 Support Sector Elasticities
I""' (to Wealth)
C71E .00003 .00005 .00008 193.821 243.698
C84D .00005 .00009 .00015 r 23 Migration Sensitivity
CMIG2 3.32 14.12 24.92 195.413 240.146
~ CHIG3 21.8 49.22 76.62
CHIG4 .76 .96 1. 15
24 Alaskan Price level
!""' C67A -. 1 -.3 -.5 215.781 227.165
(b) No simulation necessary to obtain the result.
J-3
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE J. 1. (con t i nued) -
Model Parameters
Case Variable Rate Households in 2000 (000) -'
Lowest Most Likely Highest Lowest Highest .....
25 Support Sector Elasticities -(to Income)
C71B .0084 .017 .0252 206.592 225.466
C84B .0234 .047 .0702
~
26 Alaska Relative wage
Rate Growth
CxxB .5 various 2 213.738 220.350 ~
27 Federal Tax Bite
C26B 1.042 1.00 .966 212.608 218.656 -J
28 Wealth Variable 216.221 !
C68i
C7li -C80i
C83i
C84i -
29 Construction Sector 213.976
Activity specification
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The sensitivity tests involving the gas pipeline, the mix of
government expenditures, the specification of wealth, and the
specification of exogenous construction employment involved only one
rather than a high and low alternative to the control case.
Third, each variable or parameter in turn was perturbed from the
control case level and the model simulated. Summary results for
each of these simulations are shown in Table J.l. Detailed results
are available upon request from ISER.
Finally, the cases were informally ranked in terms of the
sensitivity of the number of households statewide to the variable or
parameter perturbation to the highest possible value (in relation to
increasing the number of households). Households was chosen because
the electricity load is most sensitive to this output variable.
Results
The most important result of the sensitivity tests is the
demonstration that the simulation results are more sensitive to the
values chosen for several of the parameters than to variation in
employment and state fi seal assumptions. In particular, the number
of household is most sensitive to average household size and the
labor force participation rate. A substantial reduction in either
the average household size or in the labor force participation rate,
other things equal, could raise the number of households in 2000
16 percent and 10 percent, respectively, above the control case. In
contrast, the highest likely level of petroleum employment would
increase households over the base case by 6. 5 percent, while the
highest likely level of petroleum revenues would increase households
by 4.2 percent.
The implication of this conclusion is that a substantial portion
of the potential error of projection can arise not from the economic
scenario or fiscal policy assumptions, but rather in incorrect
parameter values within the structure of the model. This is a
source of potential error that cannot be altogether eliminated and
is understandably large ·for the Alaska economic model. The reasons
relate to three factors: (1) poor quality data, (2) substantial
structural change in the past, and (3) small size of the economy.
Consequently, past structural relationships are difficult to specify
as well as might be hoped, and future values defining those
relationships are subject to substantial variations which are not
possible to eliminate by additional analysis of existing data.
In short, reasonable arguments can be raised for a number of
different values for parameters such as household size and the labor
force participation rate in future years. None can be proven
correct or incorrect.
J-5
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
When interpreting the results of these sensitivity tests, the
assumption of other things constant (ceteris parabis) should be kept
in mind. In fact, it is unlikely that variation in one parameter or
variable would not be accompanied by change in other parameters
affecting output either in the same or opposite direction. For
example, if the average household size did actually fall to
2.2 persons in 2000, it is likely that the labor force participation
rate would rise from its current lev.el. These two countervailing
movements would have opposing effects and would tend to moderate
change in the number of households.
Closely related to household size and labor force participation
rate in affecting population and, thus, households, is the
specification of the net migration equation. Simultaneously
increasing and decreasing all coefficients of this equation by two
standard errors shows the possible range of outcomes which this
equation can generate. This equation tends to be self-correcting,
since higher net migration rates increase unemployment, which
increases outmigration.
Economic activity and, consequently, households, are sensitive
to the growth in support sector employment. This was tested by
examining the coefficients on income and wealth as well as the
specification of wealth in the equations determining support sector
demand levels. Since wealth is highly correlated with income, the
sensitivity reported here is an overestimate; but it is clear that
this is one of the critical model areas.
A final sensitive area in
price level. If the Alaska
9 percent of the U.S. average
significant impetus to economic
term~ of parameters is the Alaskan
price level were to move within
level by 2000 this would provide a
growth.
The simulations are relatively insensitive to variation in three
areas of model specification. First, there is little sensitivity to
the share of personal income siphoned off as federal taxes. Second,
variation in the elasticity of real wage rate growth compared to the
U.S. average has only a modest effect. Third, an adjustment for a
possible misspecification of the construction demand equation has a
small effect.3 ·
3current practice in the model treats only Alyeska pipeline
construction employment as exogenous during the historical period.
This test arbitrarily assumes a constant positive historical level
of other exogenous construction employment and a new construction
demand equation is estimated.
J-6
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Turning to fiscal policy variables, if the level of petroleum
revenues is increased from the 50 to 90 percent Alaska Department of
Revenue case, this has a larger impact than changing the mix of
activities. Since the Department of Revenue projections only cover
the years through 1999, the method used for extrapolation to the
year 2010 was tested. Households was insensitive to this.
The simulation is moderately sensitive to the values chosen for
two national variables which affect the Alaskan economy. These are
the growth in the average real weekly wage and the U.S. unemployment
rate. The growth in the price level, ceteris paribus, is a
sensitive variable, but it operates primarily by affecting the level
of real petroleum revenues. When real, rather than nominal,
petroleum revenues are held constant and the test is repeated, the
sensitivity of simulation to the national price level falls to
practically zero.
The number of households in 2000 is insensitive to variation in
most of the exogenous employment variables. Tests on most
employment variables produce less sensitivity than most of the
parameters, fiscal variables, and national growth rates. The most
sensitive employment variables are petroleum, military, and
tourists; primarily due to their large size, but also their
potential range of variation. The sensitivity of several industries
is quite modest.
Although the analysis has been presented in terms of the
increase in the number of households to variations in parameters and
variables, it is instructive to examine the downside sensitivity
also. It is clear from an examination of Table J-1 that the
distribution of households in some tests is not symmetrical, but
rather is skewed towards higher values. This results basically from
more uncertainty about maximum values parameters and variables may
assume.
J-7
r
APPENDIX K
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM {MAP)
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
SCENARIO DOCUMENTATION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
K.l. Summary of Base Case Assumptions K-1
K.2. Aggregate Base Case Variables . K-11
K.3. Scenario Case Files for Base Case K-17
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline K-19
North Slope Petroleum Development K-23
Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production K-27
Tertiary Recovery of North Slope Oil K-31
Federal OCS Exploration and Development K-35
Sa. Beaufort Sea OCS Employment Assumptions
(Sales 71, 87, and 97) . K-37
Sb. Norton Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 57 and 100) . . K-43
5c. St. George Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 70, 89, and 101) . . . . K-49
5d.
Se.
Sf.
Navarin Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 83 and 107} .
Barrow Arch OCS Employment Assumptions
( ocs Sales 85 and 109) . .
North Aleutian Shelf OCS Employment
Assumptions (Sale 92} .
K-55
K-61
K-65
Sg. Cook Inlet, Kodiak, and Shumagin OCS Employ-
ment Assumptions (Sales 88, 86, and 99) K-69
Sh. Federal OCS Development: State Property
Tax Revenue Assumptions
Anchorage Oil Headquarters
Beluga-Chuitna Coal Production
Tyee and Terror Lakes Hydro
APA Hydro Projects
K-75
K-77
K-81
K-85
K-89
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11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
U.S. Borax Kine near Ketchikan
Greens Creek Kine
Red Dog Kine
Other Mining
Agriculture .
Forest and Lumber Products
Pulp Mill Employment
Commercial Fishing (Nonbottomfish)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
K-93
K-97
K-101
K-105
K-111
K-115
K-119
K-123
Catcher-Processor-Dominated Bottomfishing K-129
Federal Military K-133
Federal Civilian K-139
Tourism K-145
Petroleum Revenues K-147
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K.l. Summary of Base Case Assumptions
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The base case assumptions currently in place for simulating with
the MAP Economic Modeling System are summarized in Table K.l. This
table describes the assumptions used in three areas--national
variables, exogenous employment variables (economic scenario), and
state fiscal variables.
The base case assumptions have been developed to represent, in
the aggregate, a median outcome for future economic and fiscal
conditions affecting the Alaskan economy. This is in contrast to
both the most likely outcome {mode) and the average outcome {mean).
The difference ~ong the three measures can be discussed with
reference to Figure K.l which portrays the hypothetical distribution
of all the possible values that an exogenous employment variable may
assume in, for ex~ple, the year 2000.
The distribution is skewed to the right because very large
positive values are possible with some small probability greater
than zero, while values less than zero are impossible. The most
likely outcome {mode) has the highest probability of occurence, but
may have a value {in this case, one thousand) less than the majority
of the possible outcomes. The median is the value where SO percent
of the outcomes have lower values, while SO percent have higher
values. The mean (simple average) exceeds the median since it is
the average of the values of all possible outcomes.
Only one value from the distribution will be the actual outcome
in the year 2000, and the question is which measure of central
tendency best represents that unknown outcome in a base case
simulation. The median is used because of obvious deficiencies in
the other two measures.
Although the model is the most likely outcome, the majority of
outcomes could be higher, as in Figure K.l, or lower. Use of the
mode could then be unrepresentative of the universe of possible
outcomes. For ex~ple, the three possible uses of North Slope gas
and their respective probabilities could be (1) pipeline to
lower--48-40 percent, (2) conversion to methanol--30 percent, {3)
reinjection--30 percent. Although the pipeline alternative alone
has the highest probability because it is unrepresentative of the
other outcomes which together are more likely, choice of the mode
would produce a biased result.
Likewise, the choice of the mean value can result in bias if the
distribution of possible outcomes is skewed as in Figure K.l. For
example, there is a small probability of very large petroleum
revenues in the year 2000. Most outcomes have smaller associated
revenues. Since only a single outcome is possible, the low
probability high outcomes should be discounted in the calculation of
the bas~ case because they are so unlikely.
Probability
FIGURE K 1
Distribution
of
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Possible Values for Exogenous Employment
Cl)
'"0
0 -,._..
c: co .,.., c:
'"0 cO
(j) (j) ..,... ~ .....
Employment
(in thousands)
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
With that general framework in mind, the base case assumptions
have been chosen on the basis of concensus among the economists at
ISER. The process builds upon a documented eight-year experience of
scenario construction for the MAP models which has, from time to
time, utilized a large number of sources, individuals within and
without ISER, and techniques including probability encoding and
interagency committee. The base case scenario is constructed so
that Ln the aggregate, rather than in any of its individual
elements, it represents the median outcome.
Each national variable assumption is represented by a time
series of values. These time series are set to represent the best
judgement of ISER economists on the future trends in these values as
they influence the Alaskan economy. That influence is primarily
upon the growth in the real wage, the price level, and the
equilibrium rate of unemployment.
The exogenous employment assumptions consist of a serLes of case
file assumptions about economic behavior in particular industries or
particular projects. Detail on all of the case files included in
individual case files are chosen from the library of case files in
the scenario generator mode and are combined by that model to form
industry-wide basic employment assumptions. These aggregated
employment series (as well as tourists VLSLtLng Alaska) are
presented in Table K.2. The particular shape of the time paths of
the employment variables takes account of the fact that activity in
some industries such as fish harvesting is resource base
constrained, while in others the level is more strongly influenced
by demand such as mining employment.
State revenue and expenditure assumptions consist of exogenous
vectors of petroleum revenues, which are chosen from the scenario
generator library of cases, and a set of options chosen by the model
user which together are loosely called the fiscal rule.
Values for the most important petroleum revenues--royalties and
severance taxes--are taken from the Alaska Department of Revenue'·
Since these projections end in 1999, they are extrapolated to 2010
using the growth rate over the interval 1996 to 1999. This interval
is felt to be representative of the subsequent decline in production
on state fields, particularly prudhoe Bay. Consequently, the time
series of total petroleum revenues in real dollars in the base case
has the shape shown in Figure K.2.
The other petroleum revenue source of consequence, the corporate
income tax, is extremely difficult to project because it is
dependent not only on the levels of production and prices of Alaskan
petroleum but upon all aspects of worldwide operations of the major
international oil companies operating in Alaska. The base case
assumptions for this revenue source is that it grows at 7 percent
annually, slightly faster than inflation. The petroleum property
tax depends upon taxable property of the oil companies.
K-3
3
2
1983
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -
FIGURE K.2. BASE CASE SIMULATION
TOTAL PETROLEUM REVENUES
(billion 1982 $)
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1990 2000
Year
K-4
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
A "fiscal rule" is necessary for the determination of the level
and composition of state expenditures for two reasons. First, the
historical pat tern of state expenditure behavior provides no state
guide to future spending patterns. Second, the potential for
revenue surpluses on current account allows for considerable
flexibility in the timing and composition of spending. In 1982
Alaskan voters approved a spending limit which limits spending to
$2.5 billion adjusted annually for the change in population and the
price level.
The limit covers all state spending except Permanent Fund
dividends and debt service. Special capital approriations over the
limit and special contributions to the Permanent Fund can be done
with voter approval. The limit also requires that at least
one-third of spending be for capital appropriations. Excess
revenues accrue in the General Fund until needed, earning positive
real interest.
The limit provides a useful set of guidelines for the fi seal
rule when current revenues plus General Fund balances are sufficient
to allow spending to be at the limit established by the limit. The
outstanding obligations to the Permanent Fund is not paid off. When
a simulation indicates that current revenues and the fund balance do
not provide revenues sufficient to spend up to the limit, then an
alternate set of guidelines defining spending must be invoked.
Since there is no historical experience to base these guidelines
upon, they are defined by what appears reasonable politically in an
era of declining revenues. The basic assumption is "last in-first
out" referring to the fact that newer programs, initiated in years
when revenues are increasing rapidly, are most likely to be cut back
the most when revenues are falling. All programs would experience
cuts to some degree at the same time that some newer programs are
eliminated.
The sequence of events which is triggered by a shortfall of
revenues below the spending limit is as follows: Total expenditures
for programs funded under the limit are reduced. Permanent Fund
dividends and debt service payments are not directly affected.
Capital expenditures are reduced more than operating expenditures
over a two-year period until operations represents 75 percent of
spending. The reduction of operations results in a reduction in
local transfers. As the retrenchment continues, the subsidy half of
the capital budget is eliminated and replaced by "bricks and mortar"
spending. Capital spending financed by bonds and federal grants
continues to be a fixed portion of capital spending under the limit.
In addition to subsidies, the Permanent Fund dividend program is
eliminated.
K-5
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Two revenue enhancement measures are subsequently introduced.
The first is the reintroduction of the personal income tax at the
rates prevailing when it was eliminated in the 1970s. The second is
the annual transfer of all Permanent Fund earnings, both real and
nominal, to the General Fund. This produces current income but
erodes the real value of the Permanent Fund.
K-6
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l. SUMMARY OF BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS FOR HAP MODEL
RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDY, MAY 1983
(SB87.3-CB87.3)
ASSUMPTIONS DESCRIPTION (a)
National Variables Assumptions
U.S. Inflation Rate
Real Average Weekly Earnings
Real Per Capita Income
Unemployment Rate
Exogenous Employment Assumptions
Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline
Consumer prices rise at approximately
6.5 percent annually after 1985.
Growth in real average weekly
earnings averages 1 percent annually.
Growth in real per
averages 1.5 percent
1984.
capita
annually
Long-run rate of 6 percent.
income
after
Operating employment remains constant
at 1,500 through 2010 (TAP.083).
North Slope Petroleum Development Construction employment developing
Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk fields peaks
at 2,400 in 1983 and 1986. Operating
employment remains at 2,502 through
2010 for overall North Slope produc-
tion (NS0.082}.
Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum
Production
Employment declines gradually
beginning in 1983 so as to reach
SO percent of the 1982 level ( 778) by
2010 (UPC. 082) .
(a) Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for MAP Model SCEN_
case files. These are presented in detail starting in Table K.3 of this
appendix.
K-7
Tertiary Recovery of
North Slope Oil
OCS Exploration and Development
Anchorage Oil Headquarte~s
Beluga Chuitna Coal Production
Hydroelectric Projects
U.S. Borax Mine
Greens Creek Mine
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Tertiary oil recovery project util-
izing North Slope natural gas occurs
in early 1990s with a peak annual
employment of 2,000 (NSO.TRC).
The current OCS five-year leasing
schedule calls for 16 OCS lease sales
subsequent to October 1982, including
the Beaufort, Norton, and St. George
Sales, which have already taken place
(Sales 71, 57, and 70). Development is
assumed to occur only in the Navarin
Basin (1.14 billion barrels of oil)
and the Beaufort Sea ( 6.1 billion
barrels of oil). All other sales are
assumed to result in exploration
employment only (OCS.GOl, OCS.G03,
OCS.G04, OCS,GOS, OCS.G06, OCS.G07,
OCS.G09, OCS.GlO, OCS.Gll, OCS.Gl2,
OCS.Gl3, OCS.Gl4).
Several oil companies establish
regional headquarters in Alaska in
mid-1980s (OHQ.083).
Development of
mine for export
provides total
(BCL.04T(-4)).
4.4 million
beginning
employment
ton/year
in 1990
of 524
Employment peaks at 725
construction of several
hydroelectric projects
state (SHP.082, SHP.PJH).
in 1990 for
state-funded
around the
The U.S. Borax mine near Ketchikan is
brought into production with operating
employment of 790 by 1988 (BXM.PJM).
Production from the Greens Creek
on Admiralty Island results
employment of 315 people from
through 1996 (GCM.082).
K-8
Mine
in
1986
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T Other Mining Activity
Agriculture
Forest and Lumber Products
Pulp Mills
Commercial Fishing-Nonbottomfish
Commercial Fishing-Bottomfish
:r
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Federal Military Employment
Federal Civilian Employment
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The Red Dog Mine in the Western Brooks
Range reaches full production with
operating employment of 448 by 1988
(RED.PJH).
Employment increases from a 1982 level
of 5,267 at 1 percent annually
(OMN .083).
Moderate state support results in
ex pans ion of agriculture to employment
of 508 in 2000 (AGR.PJM).
Employment expands to over 3,200 by
1990 before beginning to decline
gradually after 2000 to about 2,800 by
·2010 (FLL.083).
Employment
1 percent
(FPU.082).
declines at
per year
a rate of
after 1983
Employment levels in Oshing and fish
processing remain constant at 6,323
and 7,123, respectively (TCF.002).
The total U.S. bottomfish catch
expands at a constant rate to
allowable catch in 2000, with Alaska
resident harvesting employment rising
to 733. Onshore processing capacity
expands in the Aleutians and Kodiak
census divisions to provide total
resident employment of 971 by 2000
(BCF.183).
Employment remains constant at 23,323
(GFM.082).
Rises at 0. 5 percent annual rate from
17,900 in 1982 to 20,583 by 2010
(GFC.083).
K-9
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -,
Tourism Assumptions
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Number of visitors to Alaska increases
by 50,000 per year from 680,000 in
1982 to over 2 million by 2010
(TRS. 082).
State Revenue and Expenditure Assumptions
Petroleum Revenues
Expenditures
State petroleum revenues from the
severance tax and royalties are based
upon Alaska Department of Revenue
projections published in March of
1983. Subsequent to 1999, they are
extrapolated at the growth !:'ate over
the interval 1996-1999. Oil and gas
corporate income tax revenues are
projected to grow at a nominal rate of
7 pet"cent per year after 1985. Petro-
leum property taxes are a function of
petroleum industry capital stock
(DOR. SM83).
State expenditures are at the levels
allowed by the recently passed
spending limit, with combined
subsidies and capital expenditures
equaling one-third of total
expenditures. As revenue growth
slows, the income tax is reinstated,
subsidies are eliminated, the
Permanent Fund dividend program is
phased out, and p!:'oportional cuts in
the operating and capital budgets are
made to keep total expenditures equal
to total revenues. Capital
expenditures fall to one-fourth of
total spending. After the Permanent
Fund dividend program is phased out,
all Permanent Fund e.arnings are
annually transferred to the general
fund.
K-10
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K.2 Aggregate Base Case Variables
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Table K. 2 presents the values in the base case for the sixteen
variables which form the output of the scenario generator model for
the state economic model. These variables are aggregated from the
individual case files presented in Section K.3.
K-11
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -· May 1983
TABLE K.2. APA BASE CASE -EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
{thousands of employees)
""'1
High Wage Low Wage
Exogenous Exogenous Exogenous
Agricultural Mining Construction Construction Transportation
Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment
~
1982 0.194 8.411 2.269 0.125 1. 500
1983 0.203 9.387 3.261 0.290 1. 552
1984 o. 211 9.983 2.20':3 0. 726 1.631 ~
1985 0.219 11.279 2.627 0.863 1.949
1986 0.228 12.400 2.911 0.850 2.157 -1987 0.239 13.149 3.069 0.613 2.471
1988 0.250 14.062 3.128 0.401 2.804
1989 0.263 14.526 3.244 0.875 2.440 -· 1990 0.276 14.797 4.276 1.025 2.752
1991 0.291 15.671 1.667 1.125 2.063
1992 0.306 16.557 6.301 1. 075 2.753 -1993 0.325 16.068 5.164 o. 563 2.348
1994 0.343 16.969 2.141 0.100 3.147
1995 0.365 17.329 1.529 0.000 3.055
1996 0.389 17.501 1.303 0.000 3.291
1997 0.414 17.390 1.303 0.000 3.351 ~ 1998 0.442 16.994 1.070 0.000 3.423
1999 0.474 16.620 1.070 0.000 3.423
2000 0. 508 16.226 1.070 0.000 3.423
"""!
2001 0.527 15.957 1.070 0.000 3.423
2002 0.546 15.888 1.070 0.000 3.423
2003 0.568 16.089 1.070 0.000 3.423
2004 0.589 16.143 1.070 0.000 3.423
2005 0.611 16.197 1.070 0.000 3.423
2006 0.634 16.253 1.070 0.000 3.423 -
2007 0.660 16.309 1.063 0.000 3.351
2008 0.686 16.340 1.063 0.000 3.351
2009 o. 712 16.223 1.056 0.000 3.279 -· 2010 o. 740 16.282 1.056 0.000 3.279
!"""',
SOURCE: SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
~
I
K-12 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
T MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2. APA BASE CASE (continued)
T EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
(thousands of employees)
High Wage Low Wage Active
Exogenous Exogenous Fish Duty Civilian
Manufacturing Manufacturing Harvesting Military Federal
Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment
T 1982 0.000 8. 771 5.217 23.323 17.900
1983 0.000 10.433 6.421 23.323 17.989
J 1984 0.000 10.571 6.444 23.323 18.079
1985 0.000 10.749 6.471 23.323 18.170
1986 0.000 10.929 6.499 23.323 18.261
1987 0.000 11.107 6.527 23.323 18.352
1988 0.000 11.196 6. 544 23.323 18.444
1989 0.000 11.240 6.579 23.323 18.536
1990 0.000 11.292 6.592 23.323 18.629
1991 0.000 11.299 6.608 23.323 18.722
T 1992 0.000 11.315 6.629 23.323 18.815
1993 0.000 11.335 6.655 23.323 18.909
1994 0.000 11.366 6.689 23.323 19.004
1995 0.000 11.413 6.731 23.323 19.099
J 1996 0.000 11.478 6.784 23.323 19.194
1997 0.000 11.571 6.851 23.323 19.290
1998 0.000 11.704 6.935 23.323 19.387
1999 0.000 11.887 7.041 23.323 19.484
2000 0.000 12.122 7.096 23.323 19.581
2001 0.000 12.018 7.096 23.323 19.679
2002 0.000 11.807 7.096 23.323 19.777
2003 0.000 11.776 7.096 23.323 19.876
2004 0.000 11.747 7.096 23.323 19.976
2005 0.000 11.718 7.096 23.323 20.076
2006 0.000 11.641 7.096 23.323 20.176
2007 0.000 11.634 7.096 23.323 20.277
2008 0.000 11.626 7.096 23.323 20.378
T 2009 0.000 11.623 7.096 23.323 20.480
2010 0.000 11.617 7.096 23.323 20.583
r ---
SOURCE: SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
K-13
"""!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2. APA BASE CASE (continued)
EXOGENOUS REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL ~
(millions of current dollars) .....
State
State state State Corporate
Production State Bonus Property Petroleum
Tax Royalty Payment Tax Tax
Revenue Income Revenue Revenue Revenue
""""'·
1982 1590.000 1530.000 6. 700 142.700 668.900
1983 1480.000 1430.000 26.100 148.600 235.000 ""~.
1984 1220.000 1200.000 11.066 153.200 272.000
1985 1260.000 1240.000 4.692 158.000 295.000
1986 1350.000 1350.000 1.990 163.456 315.650
1987 . 1430.000 1450.000 0.844 169.101 337.745
1988 1500.000 1520.000 0.358 174.940 361.387
1989 1380.000 1650.000 0.152 180.981 386.684 ~
1990 1420.000 1710.000 0.064 187.231 413.751
1991 1230.000 1570.000 0.027 244.697 442.714
1992 1150.000 1550.000 0.012 253.385 473.704
1993 1110.000 1520.000 0.005 334.305 506.863
1994 1090.000 1500.000 0.002 360.464 542.343
1995 1000.000 1410.000 0.001 372.870 580.306 -
1996 910.000 1290.000 0.000 386.531 620.927
1997 930.000 1330.000 0.000 399.458 664.392 -1998 910.000 1340.000 0.000 412.658 710.899
1999 860.000 1350.000 0.000 425.141 760.662
2000 843.918 1370.384 0.000 438.917 813.907 ~
'
2001 828.136 1391.076 0.000 452.996 870.881
2002 812.650 1412.081 0.000 465.389 931.842
2003 797.453 1433.402 0.000 480.106 997.070
2004 782.541 1455.046 0.000 494.158 1066.865
2005 767.907 1477.016 0.000 506.558 1141.545
~
2006 753.547 1499.318 0.000 519.317 1221.453
2007 739.456 1521.957 0.000 530.447 1306.954
2008 725.628 1544.938 0.000 542.962 1398.440 """~
2009 712.058 1568.266 0.000 554.874 1496.331
2010 698.743 1591.946 0.000 564.198 1601.073 -SOURCE: SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
~.
K-14
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2. APA BASE CASE {continued)
EXOGENOUS TOURISM ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
{thousands of tourists)
Tourists
Visiting Alaska
1982 680.000
1983 730.000
1984 780.000
1985 830.000
1986 880.000
1987 930.000
1988 980.000
1989 1030.000
1990 1080.000
199.1 1130.000
1992 1180.000
1993 1230.000
1994 1280.000
1995 1330.000
1996 1380.000
1997 1430.000
1998 1480.000
1999 1530.000
2000 1580.000
2001 1630.000
2002 1680.000
2003 1730.000
2004 1780.000
2005 1830.000
2006 1880.000
2007 1930.000
2008 1980.000
2009 2030.000
2010 2080.000
SOURCE: SCENARIOS887.3--CREATED 4/83
K-15
K-16
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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K.3. Scenario Case Files for Base Case
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
This section contains a written description plus the actual file
contents in table form of each case file used to form the base case
output of the scenario generator.
K-17
K-18
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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1. Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Trans-Alaska Pipeline Service (TAPS) employment through 1977
included only the exogenous construction employment engaged in the
initial construction of the pipeline. After completion in 1977,
employment has been of two types. First, there has been additional
construction of four pump stations (see Oil and Gas Journal,
2/25/80, p. 72), and second, there is exogenous transportation
sector employment associated with operation of the line.
SOURCE: Construction estimate based on assumed installation of
four pump stat ions adding capacity of .15 mmbd each, from Beaufort
OCS Development Scenarios, Dames and Moore, 1978.
Operations employment from Alaska Economic Trends, Alaska Dept.
of Labor, October 1978.
K-19
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.3a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TRANS-ALASKA OIL PIPELINE
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLES: EMCNX1
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
0.090
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
CASE TAP.083
EMT9X
K-20
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
1. 500
1. 500
1. 500
1.500
1. 500
1.500
1. 500
1.500
1. 500
1. 500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1. 500
1. 500
1. 500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1. 500
1. 500
1.500
1.500
1. 500
1.500
1.500
1. 500
-
-
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.3b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TRANS-ALASKA OIL PIPELINE
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-Southeast Valdez/Chitina/ Yukon/
North Slope Fairbanks Fairbanks Whittier Koyukuk
T 1982 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.406 0.552
1983 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1984 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1985 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1986 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1987 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
r 1988 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1989 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
'I 1990 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 552
1991 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1992 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1993 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
T 1994 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1995 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
J 1996 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1997 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1998 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 552
1999 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552 T 2000 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
I
2001 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2002 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2003 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2004 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2005 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2006 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 552
2007 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
T 2008 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2009 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2010 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 552
T SOURCE: HAP MODEL CASE TAP.083
T VARIABLES: B04 B09 B24 B26 B29
I
K-21
T
K-22
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
-
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T
T
T
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
2. North Slope Petroleum Development
North Slope developments include employment associated with
primary recovery operations from the Sadlerochit formation,
secondary recovery (using waterflooding) of that formation,
development of the Kuparuk formation west of Prudhoe Bay, and the
permanent work force of Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and
British Petroleum (BP) at the main Prudhoe base headquarters, and a
variety of exploration and development efforts on state leases
outside of the Sadlerochit and Kuparuk areas. The key assumptions
serving as the basis for the employment forecasts are the following:
0
0
0
0
A total of nine rigs continue to drill
approximately 50-55 wells at the Prudhoe Bay
field and 50 wells at the Kuparuk field a year
through 1985.
The Prudhoe waterflood project is completed in
1984, adding 300 new permanent operating
employees.
Construction employment involved in development
of primary and secondary recovery facilities at
the Kuparuk field peaks at 1,300 in 1985.
Construction employment for additional recovery
facilities at Kuparuk and Prudhoe, as well as for
developing production facilities at other North
Slope oil fields under state lease, maintains
total construction employment at 1,500 through
1990 and at 1,000 through 2010.
SOURCE: u.s. Army Corps of Engineers, Final EIS, Prudhoe Bay
Oilfield Waterflood Project, pp. 2-60; and personal communication,
D. A. Casey, ARCO Oil and Gas Co.
K-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.4a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
NORTH SLOPE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction Mining
Employment Employment
1982 2.000 2.300
1983 2.400 2.502
1984 1.800 2.502
1985 2.000 2.502
1986 2.400 2.502
1987 1.800 2.502
1988 1.500 2.502
1989 1.500 2.502
1990 1.500 2.502
1991 1.000 2.502
1992 1.000 2.502
1993 1.000 2.502
1994 1.000 2.502
1995 1.000 2.502
1996 1.000 2.502
1997 1.000 2.502
1998 1.000 2.502
1999 1.000 2.502
2000 1.000 2.502
2001 1.000 . 2. 502
2002 1.000 2.502
2003 1.000 2.502
2004 1.000 2.502
2005 1.000 2.502
2006 1.000 2. 502
2007 1.000 2.502
2008 1.000 2.502
2009 1.000 2.502
2010 1.000 2.502
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE NS0.082
VARIABLES: EMCNX1 EMP9
K-24
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-
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TABLE K.4b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
NORTH SLOPE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-North Slope
1982 4.300
1983 4.902
1984 4.302
1985 4. 502
1986 4.902
1987 4.302
1988 4.002
1989 4.002
1990 4.002
1991 3.502
1992 3.502
1993 3.502
1994 3.502
1995 3.502
1996 3.502
1997 3.502
1998 3.502
1999 3.502
2000 3.502
2001 3.502
2002 3.502
2003 3.502
2004 3.502
2005 3.502
2006 3.502
2007 3.502
2008 3.502
2009 3.502
2010 3.502
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE NS0.082
VARIABLE: B04
K-25
K-26
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
-'
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3. Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Petroleum sector employment in the Kenai-Cook Inlet census
division was 778 in 1979 (four-quarter average employment taken from
Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical Quarterly, 1979 issues),
consisting of exploration, development, and production associated
with the Kenai oil and gas fields. Currently, the 120,000 barrels
per day output of oil is expected to decline drastically over the
forecast period, possibly as fast as 15 to 20 percent per year. The
decline may be partially slowed, however, by a possible redrilling
program being considered by the operators (see Oil and Gas Journal,
214/80, p. 36). We assume a gradual employment decline to 383 by
2010 as oil wells are abandoned. Gas production is assumed to
remain relatively stable at around 5,000 mmcf/day.
SOURCE: Oil and Gas Journal, 2/4/80; and personal
communication, D. A. Casey, ARCO Oil and Gas Co.
K-27
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.5a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
UPPER COOK INLET PETROLEUM
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLE: EMP9
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CASE UPC.082
K-28
Mining
Employment
0. 778
0. 759
0. 740
0. 721
o. 703
0.685
0.668
0.652
0.635
0.619
0.604
0. 589
0. 574
0.560
0.546
0. 532
0.519
0. 506
0.493
0.481
0.469
0.457
0.446
0.435
0.424
0.413
0.403
0.393
0.383
-
-
....
-
-
-
-
-'
-
1
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T
I
TABLE K. 5b.
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE
VARIABLE: B12
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 19a3
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
UPPER COOK INLET PETROLEUM
(thousands of employees)
Kenai-Cook Inlet
1982 0. 778
1983 0.759
1984 0. 740
1985 0. 721
1986 o. 703
1987 0.685
1988 0.668
1989 0.652
1990 0.635
1991 0.619
1992 0.604
1993 0.589
1994 0.574
1995 0.560
1996 0. 546
1997 o. 532
1998 0.519
1999 0. 506
2000 0.493
2001 0.481
2002 0.469
2003 0.457
2004 0.446
2005 0.435
2006 0.424
2007 0.413
2008 0.403
2009 0.393
2010 0.383
UPC.082
K-29
K-30
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983.
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.....
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4. Tertiary Recovery of North Slope Oil
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
There is currently no firm plan for the disposition of North
Slope natural gas, and recent studies have demonstrated the various
problems faced by all the current proposals (for example, Booz,
Allen and Hamilton, Inc., report to the state of Alaska, 1983; and
,.Use in Alaska of North Slope Natural Gas,'' Alaska Review of Social
and Economic Conditions, April 1983). In light of the dim prospects
for transport of the gas to market, an alternative use would be in
tertiary recovery of North Slope oil. A pilot tertiary recovery
project is currently underway at Prudhoe Bay involving the
reinjection of natural gas liquids in a small portion of the field.
Alternative tertiary recovery methods are technically feasible but
have yet to be attempted in severe Arctic conditions. (See Options
for North Slope Gas Utilization, Michael Economides and Russell
Osterman, April 1982, for state of Alaska Division of Energy and
Power Development.)
This case assumes tertiary recovery project for Pruhoe Bay oil.
s i nee the dimensions of such a project have yet to be worked out,
the case is generic in its employment assumptions. Employment is
assumed to be on the same order of magnitude as the waterflooding
project.
K-31
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.6a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TERTIARY RECOVERY OF NORTH SLOPE OIL
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLE: EMP9
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CASE NSO.TRC
K-32
Mining
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0. 500
1.000
2.000
2.000
1.000
0.500
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
-
-
-
-
....
-!
-
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TABLE K.6b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TERTIARY RECOVERY OF NORTH SLOPE OIL
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-North Slope
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.500
1990 1.000
1991 2.000
1992 2.000
1993 1.000
1994 0.500
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE NSO.TRC
VARIABLE: B04
K-33
K-34
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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5. Federal OCS Exploration and Development
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Our assumptions of employment associated with federal OCS
exploration and development are based on the current five-year
federal OCS lease schedule. For each planning area we assumed a
total level of resources to be discovered and developed. We
developed employment assumptions based on these resource levels.
The basic method used to derive the resource development assumptions
is described in pp. 17-28 of Edward D. Porter, "The Five-Year OCS
Leasing Schedule, 1982-87, Alaska Impacts, 11 Bureau of Land
Management, Alaska OCS office, August 1982. Estimates of
recoverable resources and probability of occurrence in each planning
area have been updated to May 1983 with information from the Alaska
OCS office.
Table K. 7 summarizes the current federal OCS five-year leasing
schedule and the resources which we assumed to be developed by 2010
in each planning area. This table updates Table 7 in E. D. Porter,
E.£..• cit. (p. 26). In the most likely case, we assume that no
offshore gas resources are developed. Offshore oil resources are
developed only in the Beaufort Sea and the Navarin Basin.
Exploration continues in all areas, however, following the lease
sale schedule.
Based on the resource estimates for each planning area, we
developed employment assumptions for each lease sale. There is a
great deal of uncertainty with respect to the actual level of
employment which might be associated with any given sale.
Employment would depend not only on the resources discovered, but
also on factors such as the location of the discovery and the extent
to which exploration and development had taken place in connection
with earlier sales.
There is no consistent source for developing employment
assumptions for all sales. The employment assumptions used by the
Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS office, for environmental
impact studies and technical reports are available only for lease
sales which have already been studied. These employment assumptions
are often based on differing assumptions about resources which are
developed than those we have used. In addition, the methodology
used to develop them appears to vary widely between different
reports. Despite these difficulties with past Minerals Management
Service employment assumptions, they remain the best source
available. We have used these assumptions as the primary basis for
our own OCS employment assumptions, modifying them to take account
of differences in assumptions such as resource discoveries and
locations.
On the following pages, we present the employment assumptions
associated with the OCS planning areas listed in Table K.7, in the
order in which they are listed in the table.
K-35
-
K-36 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research rr MAP Documentation
I May 1983
T I
T
f"f'"'
I
T
Sa. Beaufort Sea OCS Employment Assumptions (Sales 71, 87, and 97)
For the most likely case, we assume development of a total of
6.1 billion barrels of oil in the Beaufort Sea. We assumed that
roughly half of this oil will be developed on tracts leased in
Sale 71, and that half will be developed on tracts leased in
Sales 87 and 97. Our employment assumptions are based on
unpublished information provided by the Minerals Management Service,
Alaska OCS office, in April 1983, which assumed development of
3.0 billion barrels of oil for Sale 87. We used these assumptions
for Sales 87 and 97, and assumed slightly lower levels of employment
for Sale 71.
K-37
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE K.8a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALE 71) """
(thousands of employees)
(millions of current $) -
High Wage State -Exogenous Exogenous Property
Construction Mining Transportation Tax
Employment Employment Employment Revenue ,_,,
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.341 0.375 0.052 0.000 -1984 0.208 0.375 0.052 0.000
1985 0.250 0.535 0.104 0.000 -1986 0.250 0.575 0.117 0.000
1987 0.800 0.575 0.384 0.000
1988 0.800 0. 546 0.683 0.000
1989 0.340 0. 568 0.200 0.000 -1990 0.952 1.001 0.411 0.000
1991 0.327 0.980 0.257 51.000 ~I
1992 0.873 1.265 0.752 53.000
1993 0.361 1.203 0.461 55.000
1994 0.268 1.448 o. 508 57.000
1995 0.268 1. 720 0. 538 59.000
1996 0.035 1.484 0.610 61.000
1997 0.035 1.350 0.610 63.000 -1998 0.035 1.341 0.610 65.000
1999 0.035 1.350 0.610 66.000
2000 0.035 1.341 0.610 68.000 -
2001 0.035 1.341 0.610 70.000
2002 0.035 1.341 0.610 71.000
2003 0.035 1.341 0.610 72.000 I"'",
2004 0.035 1.341 0.610 74.000
2005 0.035 1.341 0.610 74.000
....,,,
2006 0.035 1.341 0.610 75.000
2007 0.028 1.341 o. 538 75.000
2008 0.028 1.315 o. 538 75.000 -2009 0.028 1.315 0.538 75.000
2010 0.028 1.315 o. 538 73.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G14
VARIABLES: EMCNXl EMP9 EMT9X RPPS
K-38 -
T
,.,...
'I , I
r
; i_
T
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.8b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALE 71)
(thousands of employees)
Ba~~ow-
Ancho~age No~th Slope
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.768
1984 0.000 0.635
1985 0.000 0.889
1986 0.000 0.942
1987 0.000 1. 759
1988 0.000 2.029
1989 0.007 1.101
1990 0.011 2.353
1991 0.015 1. 549
1992 0.059 2.831
1993 0.087 1.938
1994 0.100 2.124
1995 0.111 2.415
1996 0.120 2.009
1997 0.126 1.869
1998 0.126 1.860
1999 0.126 1.869
2000 0.126 1.860
2001 0.126 1.860
2002 0.126 1.860
2003 0.126 1.860
2004 0.126 1.860
2005 0.126 1.860
2006 0.126 1.860
2007 0.126 1.781
2008 0.126 1. 755
2009 0.126 1. 755
2010 0.126 1. 755
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G14
VARIABLES: 801 804
K-39
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation ~
May 1983
TABLE K.9a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALES 87, 97) -
(thousands of employees)
(millions of current $) """'
High Wage State
Exogenous Exogenous Property
Construction Mining Transportation Tax
Employment Employment Employment Revenue
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -1984 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.341 0.375 0.052 0.000
1986 0.208 0.375 0.052 0.000
1987 0.416 0.535 0.104 0.000
1988 0.468 0.575 0.117 0.000
1989 1.080 0.575 0.384 0.000 ""'\
1990 1.824 o. 546 0. 713 0.000
1991 0.340 0. 568 0.230 0.000 -: 1992 0.952 1.001 0. 501 0.000
1993 0.327 0.980 0.387 72.000
1994 0.873 1.265 0.912 75.000
1995 0.261 1.203 0.651 78.000
1996 0.268 1.448 0. 728 81.000
1997 0.268 1. 720 0. 788 84.000 -1998 0.035 1.484 0.860 87.000
1999 0.035 1.350 0.860 89.000
2000 0.035 1.341 0.860 92.000
2001 0.035 1.350 0.860 95.000
2002 0.035 1.341 0.860 97.000
2003 0.035 1.490 0.860 100.000 ·""'' 2004 0.035 1.490 0.860 102.000
2005 0.035 1.490 0.860 104.000
~1
2006 0.035 1.490 0.860 105.000
2007 0.035 1.490 0.860 106.000
2008 0.035 1.490 0.860 107.000
2009 0.028 1.315 0.788 108.000
2010 0.028 1.315 0.788 107.000 -·I
SOURCE: HAP MODEL CASE OCS.G01
VARIABLES: EMCNX1 EMP9 EMT9X RPPS
~:
K-40
il
rr
' I
,1
•, I
1 :I
PT
I I
rr , I
I
T
I
T
I
TABLE K.9b.
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALES 87, 97)
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-
Anchorage North Slope
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.768
0.000 0.635
0.000 1.055
0.000 1.160
0.000 2.039
0.000 3.083
0.007 1.131
0.011 2.443
0.015 1.679
0.059 2.991
0.087 2.028
0.100 2.344
0.111 2.665
0.120 2.259
0.126 2.119
0.126 2.110
0.126 2.119
0.126 2.110
0.126 2.259
0.126 2.259
0.126 2.259
0.126 2.259
0.126 2.259
0.126 2.259
0.126 2.005
0.126 2.005
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.GOl
VARIABLES: B02 B04
K-41
K-42
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
-
-
-
~I
-
-I
-I
Sb.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Norton Basin OCS Employment Assumptions (OCS Sales 57 and 100)
We assume that no oil resources are developed in
the Norton Basin. We assume only exploration employment only for
Sales 57 and 100. Our Sale 57 exploration employment assumptions
are based on an exploration-only scenario from U.S. Department of
the Interior, BLM Alaska--OCS office, Bering-Norton Petroleum
Development Scenarios, Socioeconomic Studies Program, Technical
Report Number 49 (January 1980), p. 106. Our Sale 100 exploration
employment assumptions are identical to these for Sale 57, but are
assumed to occur two years later.
K-43
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.lOa. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 51)
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.036
1986 0.036
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.GlO
VARIABLES: EMCNXl EMP9 EMT9X
Employment Employment
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.046 0.022
0.092 0.044
0.046 0.022
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 • 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
K-44
-
!""'l
-
-
·-
-
~
-
"""'\
~.
...,
-
"""' '
r
TABLE K.lOb.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin ocs (Sale 57)
(thousands of employees)
Nome
1982 0.'000
1983 0.000
1984 0.068
1985 0.172
1986 0.104
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.GlO
VARIABLE: 818
K-45
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
TABLE K.l1a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 100)
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000 0.000
1986 0.000 0.046 0.022
1987 0.036 0.092 0.044
1988 0.036 0.046 0.022
1989 0.000 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000 .o.ooo
2006 0.000 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G09
VARIABLES: EMCNX1 EKP9 EMT9X
K-46
-
-
-
-
'""""
r
r
!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.llb. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin ocs (Sale 100)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G09
VARIABLE: 818
(thousands of employees)
K-47
Nome
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.068
0.172
0.104
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
K-48
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
5c. St. George Basin OCS Employment Assumptions (OCS Sales 70, 89,
and 101
We assume that no oil resources are developed in the St. George
Basin. We assume only exploration employment for Sales 70, 89, and
101. Our Sale 70 exploration employment assumptions are based on an
exploration-only scenario from U.S. Department of the Interior, BLM
Alaska OCS office, St. George Basin Petroleum Development Scenerios:
Economic and Demographic Analysis, Socioeconomic Studies Program,
Technical Report Number 57 (April 1981), p. 250. Our Sale 89
employment assumptions are identical, but are assumed to occur one
year later. Following unsuccessful exploration of tracts leased in
the two earlier sales, no exploration occurs ~n connection with
Sale 101.
K-49
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l2a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
St. George Basin OCS (Sale 70)
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
i994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.Gll
VARIABLES: EMP9 EMT9X
0.000
0.000
0.131
0.198
0.232
0.198
0.097
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
K-50
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.057
0.093
0.110
0.093
0.020
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
-
.....
I
....
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.12b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
St. George Basin ocs (Sale 70)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.188
1985 0.291
1986 0.342
1987 0.291
1988 0.117
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS . Gll
VARIABLE: 801
K-51
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l3a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
St. George Basin OCS (Sale 89)
(thousands of employees)
I
Exogenous
Mining Transportation
Employment Employment
1982 0.000
1983 . 0.000
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.Gl2
VARIABLES: EMP9 EMT9X
0.000
0.131
0.198
0.232
0.198
0.097
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
K-52
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.057
0.093
0.110
0.093
0.020
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
~
~
·~
""'!
.-,
-
""""'
...
""':;
~
J
~
1111!11!,
r
-I
,I
r
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l3b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
St. George Basin ocs (Sale 89)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.188
1986 0.291
1987 0.342
1988 0.291
1989 0.117
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G12
VARIABLE: B01
K-53
K-54
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
-
-
,,,,.
r
r
I
.-i
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
5d. Navarin Basin OCS Employment Assumptions (OCS Sales 83 and 107)
For our most likely case, we assumed development of 1.14 billion
barrels of oil in the Navarin Basin. We assumed that this oil is
developed in connection with Sale 83 and that Sale 107 results in
only additional exploration.
Our Sale 83 employment assumptions are .based on unpublished
figures provided to ISER by the Minerals Management, Alaskan OCS
office, in connection with the preparation of Socioeconomic Studies
Program, Technical Report 78, which examined impacts of Sale 83.
The employment figures provided by the OCS office assumed
development of both oil and gas resources. We reduced these figures
by removing that employment primarily associated with gas
development.
Our exploration-only employment assumptions for Sale 10 7 were
based on the same set of figures provided to ISER by the Minerals
Management Service, Alaska OCS office.
K-55
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -! HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l4a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS -Navarin Bas in ocs (Sale 83)
(thousands of employees) -(millions of current $)
High Wage State -Exogenous Exogenous Property
Construction Mining Transportation Tax
Employment Employment Employment Revenue
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
'"""'·
1986 0.000 0.240 0.000 0.000
1987 0.000 0.440 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.480 0.000 0.000 .,
1989 0.000 0.480 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.360 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.352 0.000 0.000
1992 3.476 0.664 0.000 0.000
1993 3.476 1.215 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 1.832 0.174 14.000 ~
1995 0.000 2.228 0.261 14.000
1996 0.000 2.345 0.348 15.000
1997 0.000 2.364 0.348 15.000
1998 0.000 2.166 0.348 15.000
1999 0.000 1.868 0.348 16.000
2000 0.000 1.443 0.348 16.000 -i
2001 0.000 1.114 0.348 16.000
2002 0.000 1.002 0.348 16.000 ~
2003 0.000 1.002 0.348 17.000
2004 0.000 1.002. 0.348 17.000
2005 0.000 1.002 0.348 17.000 ~i
2006 0.000 1.002 0.348 17.000
2007 0.000 1.002 0.348 16,000
2008 0.000 1.002 0.348 16.000 ~~
2009 0.000 1.002 0.348 15.000
2010 0.000 1.002 0.348 15.000 _,
SOURCE: HAP MODEL CASE OCS.G03
VARIABLES: EMCNXl EMP9 EMT9X RPPS ·•,
K-56 -
-
-r
r
!
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
TABLE K.l4b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Navarin Basin OCS (Sale 83)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian
Islands Anchorage
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000
1986 0.240 0.000
1987 0.440 0.000
1988 0.480 0.000
1989 0.480 0.000
1990 0.360 0.000
1991 0.352 0.000
1992 4.140 0.000
1993 4.689 0.002
1994 2.002 0.004
1995 2.477 0.012
1996 2.671 0.022
1997 2.682 0.030
1998 2.477 0.037
1999 2.163 0.053
2000 1. 737 0.053
2001 1.409 0.053
2002 1.297 0.053
2003 1.297 0.053
2004 1. 297 0.053
2005 1. 297 0.053
2006 1.297 0.053
2007 1.297 0.053
2008 1.297 0.053
2009 ·1. 297 0.053
2010 1.297 0.053
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G03
VARIABLES: BOl B02
K-57
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l5a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Navarin Basin OCS (Sale 107)
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G04
VARIABLES: EMP9 EMT9X
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.280
0.680
0.280
0.120
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
K-58
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.078
0.208
0.078
0.026
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
f
i
TABLE K.l5b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Navarin Basin OCS (Sale 101)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.358
1989 0.888
1990 0.358
1991 0.146
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G04
VARIABLE: B01
K-59
K-60
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
!!If!,
-I
llolil\\ I
-
~I
-
-
r
'
-
r
I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
5e. Barrow Arch OCS Employment Assumptions (OCS Sales 85 and 109)
For our most likely case, we assumed that there would be no
development of oil resources in the Barrow Arch. We developed
exploration-only employment assumptions for OCS Sales 85 and 109
based on figures provided in U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau
of Land Management, Alaska OCS office, Chukchi Sea Petroleum
Technology Assessment, Socioeconomic Studies Program, Technical
Report Number 79 (December 1982), pp. 5.1-5.6.
K-61
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.16a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Barrow Arch OCS (Sales 85 and 109)
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.030 0.000
1986 0.017 0.057 0.050
1987 0.017 0.057 0.050
1988 0.324 0.027 0.100
1989 0.324 0.067 0.100
1990 0.000 0.067 0.050
1991 0.000 0.067 0.050
1992 o.ooo 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000 0.000
1995 o.ooo 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000 0.000
2002 o.ooo 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G13
VARIABLES: EMCNX1 EMP9 EMT9X
K-62
-·
I~
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
r MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-i
TABLE K.l6b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Barrow Arch OCS (Sales 85 and 109)
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-North Slope
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.030
1986 0.124
1987 0.124
1988 0.451
1989 0.491
1990 0.117
1991 0.117
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G13
VARIABLE: B04
K-63
K-64
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
-
MAP Documentation ~~
May 1983
-
-
-
-
,!11011!,
'~
,_.,
'
r"'
!
-I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Sf. North Aleutian Shelf OCS Employment Assumptions (Sale 92)
For our most likely case, we assumed that there would be no
development of oil resources from the North Aleutian Shelf. Our
exploration-only employment assumptions are based on figures
provided for exploration employment in U.S. Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska OCS office, North
Aleutian Shelf Statewide and Regional Demographic and Economic
Systems Impacts Analysis, Socioeconomic Studies Program, Technical
·Report Number 68 (June 1982), p. 285.
K-65
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l7a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
North Aleutian Shelf OCS (Sale 92)
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.GOS
VARIABLES: EMP9 EMT9X
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.125
0.125
0.078
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
K-66
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
~I
-i
-
-
-,
.....
r
-!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l7b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
North Aleutian Shelf OCS (Sale 92)
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Islands
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.184
1987 0.184
1988 0.137
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G05
VARIABLE: 801
K-67
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
....
-
-
-
-
-
-
K-68
-
-
-'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Sg. Cook Inlet, Kodiak, and Shumagin OCS Employment Assumptions
(Sales 88, 86, and 99)
For our most likely case, we assumed that there would be no
development of oil resources in the Cook Inlet, Kodiak, or Shumagin
federal OCS. Our OCS exploration-only employment assumptions for
Sales 88 and 99 are based on an exploration-only scenario provided
in U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management,
Alaska OCS office, Lower Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait Petroleum
Development Scenarios, Socioeconomic Studies Program, Technical
Report Number 43 (July 1979), p. 66. Given the assumed lack of
development resulting from Kodiak and Cook Inlet sales, we assumed
that there would be no exploration employment associated with
Sale 86 (Shelikof Strait).
K-69
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K .. l8a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Cook Inlet OCS (Sale 88)
(thousands of employees)
Exogenous
Mining Transportation
Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 o.ooo 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000
1985 0.202 0.099
1986 0.271 0.132
1987 0.056 0.028
1988 0.000 0.000
1989 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000
2007 o.ooo 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G06
VARIABLES: EMP9 EMT9X
K-70
-
.... ,
-
-
-
-
-
-
I""'
!
-I'
TABLE K.l8b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Cook Inlet OCS (Sale 88)
(thousands of employees)
Kenaj-Cook Inlet
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.301
1986 0.403
1987 0.084
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G06
VARIABLE: Bl2
K-71
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.19a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Kodiak ocs (Sale 99)
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G07
VARIABLES: EMP9 EMT9X
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.202
0. 271
0.056
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
K-72
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.099
0.132
0.028
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.l9b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Kodiak OCS (Sale 99)
(thousands of employees)
Kodiak
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.301
1988 0.403
1989 0.084
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G07
VARIABLE: Bl5
K-73
K-74
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
-
-
-
-
-
.....
-
-
.....
-
r
-I
....
-
""' !
r
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
M~y 1983
5h. Federal OCS Development: State Property Tax Revenue Assumptions
We calculated nominal state property tax revenue assumptions as
2 percent of taxable value of installed facilities onshore or
offshore within the three-mile limit using the following formula to
calculate taxable value:
~~~::1) -~~;~l~~i•)( -d::;.~i~~7~!·;!;~o:at ~::!atioxear -completion
We assumed that oil facilities would appreciate in value at
7.5 percent per year. We assumed construction of facilities
resulting in significant property tax revenues as follows:
Depreciation
facilities Completion Period
Area (millions $) Date (years)
Sale 71 Beaufort 2,536 (a) 1991 30
Sale 87 Beaufort 3,623 (b) 1993 30
Sale 83 Navar in 693 (c) 1994 24
(a)Assumed to be 70% of cost of Sale 87 facilities and to be
completed two years earlier.
(b)Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS office.
(c)ocs Technical Report 78, p. M-2.
Our resulting revenue assumptions are shown in Table K.20; they
are also shown in the statewide economic assumptions provided
earlier for each lease sale area.
K-75
Instit~te of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE K.20. ocs PROPERTY TAX REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS
(million $)
Sale 83 Sale 71 Sale 83 -(Navarin) (Beaufort) (Beaufort)
~
1991 0 51 0
1992 0 53 0
1993 0 55 72
1994 14 57 75 -1995 14 59 78
1996 15 61 81 -1997 15 63 84
1998 15 65 87
1999 16 66 89
2000 16 68 92
2001 16 70 95
2002 16 71 97
2003 17 72 100
2004 17 74 102
2005 17 74 104 -
2006 17 75 105
2007 16 75 106
2008 16 75 107 -
2009 15 75 108
2010 15 73 107 -
SOURCE: See text.
-
K-76
-I
-
-
F""
I
r
i
-I
I
-
6. Anchorage Oil Headquarters
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Opening of the new ARCO headquarter building will lead a trend
established over the past several years as ARCO and other oil
companies with extensive Alaska operations shift supervisory
personnel to Anchorage from outside the state. We expect a
permanent addition of 1,150 to mining employment in Anchorage by
1986 to continue to 2010.
SOURCE: Municipality of
Indicators, Fourth quarter 1981;
Alaska Economic Trends, March 1983.
Anchorage, ~Q~u~a~r~t~e~r~l~Y~--E~c~o~n~o~m~i=c
and Alaska Department of Labor,
K-77
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.21a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ~
ANCHORAGE OIL HEADQUARTERS
(thousands of employees) """'1
Mining
"""1 Employment
1982 0.000 -1983 0.366
1984 0.724
1985 0.988 ..,
1986 1.150
1987 1.150
1988 1.150 -
1989 1.150
1990 1.150
"""1
1991 1.150
1992 1.150
1993 1.150 -1994 1.150
1995 1.150
1996 1.150 -1997 1.150
1998 1.150
1999 1.150 ...,
2000 1.150
2001 1.150
2002 1.150
2003 1.150
2004 1.150
2005 1.150 -,
2006 1.150
2007 1.150 -2008 1.150
2009 1.150
2010 1.150 -
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OHQ.083
VARIABLE: EMP9 -
-
K-78 -
,-
-'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2lb. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
ANCHORAGE OIL HEADQUARTERS
(thousands of employees)
Anchorage
1982 0.000
1983 0.366
1984 0.724
1985 0.988
1986 1.150
1987 1.150
1988 1.150
1989 1.150
1990 1.150
1991 1.150
1992 1.150
1993 1.150
1994 1.150
1995 1.150
1996 1.150
1997 1.150
1998 1.150
1999 1.150
2000 1.150
2001 1.150
2002 1.150
2003 1.150
2004 1.150
2005 1.150
2006 1.150
2007 1.150
2008 1.150
2009 1.150
2010 1.150
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OHQ.083
VARIABLE: B02
K-79
K-80
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
....,
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7. Beluga-Chuitna Coal Production
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
USGS has long recognized the potential economic significance of
a large number of beds of subbituminous coal on the west side of
Cook Inlet near Tyonek (see USGS, Coal Resources of Alaska, 1967).
Recently, several alternative proposals for developing the
Beluga-Chuitna fields for export to Japan or other Pacific rim
locations have been considered (see Pacific Northwest Laboratory,
Beluga Coal Field Development: Social Effects and Management
Alternatives, 1979; and Bechtel, Preliminary Feasibility Study:
Coal Export Program, Chuitna River Field, Alaska, 1980).
Some scenarios for development of coal resources in this area
have discussed an 11-million-ton-per-year coal mine for export or
use as input to a synthetic fuel production process becoming
operational as early as 1986. We assume a more modest export
program implemented on a slower timetable. Production begins in
1994 and eventually reaches 4.4 million tons per year. Construction
begins in 1989, with peak employment of 400 in 1991. Operations
employment is 524 distributed 80 percent in mining and 20 percent in
transportation.
SOURCE: Construction employment based on Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories, Beluga Coal Field Development: Social
Effects and Management Alternatives, 1979. Other employment based
on Bechtel, Preliminary Feasibility Study: Coal Export Program,
Chuitna River Field, Alaska, 1980.
K-81
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.22a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BELUGA-CHUITNA COAL
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.000 0.000
1986 0.000 0.000 0.000
1987 0.000 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.000 0.000
1989 0.150 0.000 0.000
1990 0.300 0.000 0.000
1991 0.400 0.000 0.000
1992 0.350 0.000 0.000
1993 0.200 0.000 0.000
1994 0.100 0.210 0.053
1995 0.000 0.419 0.105
1996 0.000 0.419 0.105
1997 0.000 0.419 0.105
1998 0.000 0.419 0.105
1999 0.000 0.419 0.105
2000 0.000 0.419 0.105
2001 0.000 0.419 0.105
2002 0.000 0.419 0.105
2003 0.000 0.419 0.105
2004 0.000 0.419 0.105
2005 0.000 0.419 0.105
2006 0.000 0.419 0.105
2007 0.000 0.419 0.105
2008 0.000 0.419 0.105
2009 0.000 0.419 0.105
2010 0.000 0.419 0.105
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE BCL.04T
VARIABLES: EMCNX2 EMP9 EMT9X
K-82
-
-
-
-
-
r
-
f"'.
I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983.
TABLE K.22b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BELUGA-CHUITNA COAL
(thousands of employees)
Kenai-Cook Inlet
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.150
1990 0.300
1991 0.400
1992 0.350
1993 0.200
1994 0.363
1995 0. 524
1996 0.524
1997 0. 524
1998 0.524
1999 0. 524
2000 0.524
2001 0.524
2002 0.524
2003 0.524
2004 0.524
2005 0. 524
2006 0.524
2007 o. 524
2008 0.524
2009 0.524
2010 0.524
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE BCL.04T
VARIABLE: 812
K-83
K-84
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
~I
-
-
r
-
i
8. Tyee and Terror Lakes Hydro
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The Tyee Lake project near Pete~sburg and Wrangell is scheduled
for completion in December 1983. Construction employment will peak
at 148 ~n 1983. The Terror Lake project near Kodiak will be
completed by the end of 1984, with peak construction employment
expected to reach 372 in 1983.
SOURCE: Personal communication: John Stafford, Alaska Power
Authority; and John Longaeve, Alaska Power Authority.
K-85
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.23a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TYEE AND TERROR LAKES HYDRO
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLE: EMCNX1
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CASE SHP.PJH
K-86
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
0.179
0. 520
0.195
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
-
.-
-
"""' I
r
-I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
TABLE K.23b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TYEE AND TERROR LAKES HYDRO
(thousands of employees)
Southeast
Alaska Kodiak
1982 0.120 0.059
1983 0.148 0.372
1984 0.000 0.195
1985 0.000 0.000
1986 0.000 0.000
1987 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.000
1989 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000
1993 0.000 0.000
1994 0.000 0.000
1995 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000
2001 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 o.ooo
2005 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE SHP.PJH
VARIABLES: B11 B15
K-:--87
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
-
K-88
-r
9. APA Hydro Projects
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
In addition to the Tyee and Terror Lake projects currently under
construction, a number of other state-sponsored power projects are
likely to be constructed in the 1980s. These are: Swan Lake near
Ketchikan (under construction), the power intertie between Talkeetna
and Healy in Southcentral Alaska, the Bradley Lake project near
Homer, and the Silver Lake project between Cordova and Valdez.
Eighty percent of the intertie construction employment is assumed to
be in the Mat-Su region, with 20 percent in the Interior. We
assume, as well, that the Chackachamna project on the west side of
Cook Inlet is constructed in the early 1990s.
We assume a schedule for construction of the five projects as
follows:
Start Finish Average
Project Region (year) (year) Work Force
Swan Lake Southeast 1981 1984 125
Bradley Lake Kenai-Cook Inlet 1984 1987 175
Silver Lake Cordova-McCarthy 1985 1988 75
Chackachamna Kenai-Cook Inlet 1988 1993 725
Intertie 80% Mat-Su 1983 1984 100
20% Interior 1983 1984 25
SOURCE: Personal communication: Robert Mohn, Alaska Power
Authority.
K-89
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.24a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
APA HYDRO PROJECTS
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLE: EMCNX2
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CASE SHP.082
K-90
Low Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
0.125
0.250
0.276
0.213
0.250
0.163
0.401
0. 725
o. 725
0. 725
o. 725
0.363
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
-
-
,..,..
-
-
K-91
K-92
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
,"""
10. U.S. Borax Mine near Ketchikan
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The U.S. Borax molybdenum mine near Ketchikan is developed and
brought into production by 1987. The world market for molybdenum
remains somewhat soft. so the mine does not initially operate at
full capacity. Beginning in 1987, 40,000 tons per day are mined,
employing 700 miners and 90 support personnel through 2010.
SOURCE: Personal communication: Don Finney, u.s. Borax,
Ketchikan.
K-93
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.25a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
U.S. BORAX KINE NEAR KETCHIKAN
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Exogenous
Construction Mining
Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.041
1983 0.040 0.041
1984 0.350 0.058
1985 0. 500 0.058
1986 0.400 0.058
1987 0.300 0.428
1988 0.000 0. 790
1989 0.000 o. 790
1990 0.000 o. 790
1991 0.000 0. 790
1992 0.000 0. 790
1993 0.000 o. 790
1994 0.000 o. 790
1995 0.000 0. 790
1996 0.000 o. 790
1997 0.000 0. 790
1998 0.000 o. 790
1999 0.000 o. 790
2000 0.000 0. 790
2001 0.000 o. 790
2002 0.000 o. 790
2003 0.000 o. 790
2004 0.000 o. 790
2005 0.000 o. 790
2006 0.000 o. 790
2007 0.000 o. 790
2008 0.000 o. 790
2009 0.000 o. 790
2010 0.000 0.790
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE BXM.PJM
VARIABLES: EMCNX2 EMP9
K-94
-
-
-
-
-
-
TABLE K.25b.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
U.S. BORAX MINE NEAR KETCHIKAN
(thousands of employees)
Southeast Alaska
1982 0.041
1983 0.081
1984 0.408
1985 0. 558
1986 0.458
1987 0. 728
1988 0. 790
1989 0. 790
1990 0. 790
1991 0. 790
1992 0. 790
1993 0. 790
1994 0. 790
1995 0.790
1996 0.790
1997 0. 790
1998 0.790
1999 0.790
2000 0.790
2001 0. 790
2002 0. 790
2003 0. 790
2004 0. 790
2005 0. 790
2006 0. 790
2007 0.790
2008 0.790
2009 0. 790
2010 0.790
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE BXM.PJM
VARIABLE: Bll
K-95
K-96
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-.
11. Greens Creek Mine
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Production of the Greens Creek mine on Admiralty Island begins
by 1986. Mining employment averages 315 from 1986 through 1996,
while construction employment in mine development peaks at 190 in
1985. This assumes an eleven-year life for the mine and housing for
miners in Juneau (Greens Creek Mine Draft EIS, pp. 4-102, 2-42).
SOURCE: Greens Creek Kine Draft EIS, U.S.D.A. Forest Service,
August 1982, pp. 4-93.
K-97
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.26a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
GREENS CREEK MINE
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GCM.082
VARIABLE: EMP9
K-98
Mining
EmpJ,.oyment
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
-
-
-
-
-
,....
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.26b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
GREENS CREEK MINE
(thousands of employees)
Southeast Alaska
1982 0.000
1983 0.015
1984 0.120
1985 0.190
1986 0.315
1987 0.315
1988 0.315
1989 0.315
1990 0.315
1991 0.315
1992 0.315
1993 0.315
1994 0.315
1995 0.315
1996 0.315
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GCM.082
VARIABLE: Bll
K-99
K-100
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
.....
MAP Documentation ·~
May 1983
-
~I
-
-
r
r--
1
12. Red Dog Mine
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The Red Dog lead, zinc, and silver mine is expected to be
developed jointly by NANA and COMINCO in the Western Brooks Range.
We assume construction beginning in 1984, with average annual
employment of 150-200 in the Kobuk census division. Full production
by 1988 will employ approximately 450.
SOURCE: Personal communication: Bradford Tuck.
K-101
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.27a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
RED DOG MINE
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Exogenous
Construction Mining
Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.025
1983 0.000 0.025
1984 0.100 0.035
1985 0.150 0.021
1986 0.200 0.026
1987 0.150 0.021
1988 0.000 0.448
1989 0.000 0.448
1990 0.000 0.448
1991 0.000 0.448
1992 0.000 0.448
1993 0.000 0.448
1994 0.000 0.448
1995 0.000 0.448
1996 0.000 0.448
1997 0.000 0.448
1998 0.000 0.448
1999 0.000 0.448
2000 0.000 0.448
2001 0.000 0.448
2002 0.000 0.448
2003 0.000 0.448
2004 0.000 0.448
2005 0.000 0.448
2006 0.000 0.448
2007 0.000 0.448
2008 0.000 0.448
2009 0.000 0.448
2010 0.000 0.448
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE RED.PJH
VARIABLES: EMCNX2 EMP9
K-102
-
~I
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.27b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
RED DOG MINE
(thousands of employees)
Kobuk
1982 0.025
1983 0.025
1984 0.135
1985 0.171
1986 0.226
1987 0.171
1988 0.448
1989 0.448
1990 0.448
1991 0.448
1992 0.448
. 1993 0.448
1994 0.448
1995 0.448
1996 0.448
1997 0.448
1998 0.448
1999 0.448
2000 0.448
2001 0.448
2002 0.448
2003 0.448
2004 0.448
2005 0.448
2006 0.448
2007 0.448
2008 0.448
2009 0.448
2010 0.448
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE RED.PJH
VARIABLE: 814
K-103
K-104
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
.~.
I~
-
f""'
-
13. Other Mining
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
In 1980, the latest year for which complete figures are
available, 3,850 people were employed in mining in addition to work
on the special projects discus sed above. Of these, 2, 660 were in
Anchorage, and 47 were located in Fairbanks (Alaska Department of
Labor, Statistical Quarterly). From 1980 to 1982, the Alaska
Department of Labor projects that mining employment has increased to
3,900 in Anchorage, and to approximately 200 in Fairbanks. This
employment consists of a broad combination of administrative
personnel in Anchorage associated with minerals industries, a
variety of. petroleum and hard-rock mineral exploration activities
located around the state, and ongoing hard-rock mining.
We assume that such employment increases at 1 percent annually
through 2010, maintaining the current regibnal distribution of
employment.
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical Quarterly, and
Alaska Economic Trends, March 1980.
K-105
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research .-
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.28a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER MINING
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OMN.083
VARIABLE: EMP9
(thousands of employees)
K-106
Mining
Employment
5.267
5.319
5.372
5.426
5.481
5.535
5.591
5.647
5.703
5.760
5.818
5.876
5.934
5.994
6.054
6.114
6.175
6.237
6.299
6.362
6.426
6.490
6.555
6.621
6.687
6.754
6.821
6.890
6.958
-
-
K-107
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.28b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER MINING
(continued)
Southeast Matanuska-
Fairbanks Alaska Kobuk Kuskokwim Susitna
1982 0.200 0.040 0.002 0.004 0.003
1983 0.202 0.041 0.002 0.004 0.003
1984 0.204 0.041 0.002 0.004 0.003
1985 0.206 0.041 0.002 0.004 0.003
1986 0.208 0.042 0.002 0.004 0.003
1987 0.210 0.042 0.002 0.004 0.003
1988 0.212 0.043 0.002 0.004 0.003
1989 0.214 0.043 0.002 0.005 0.003
1990 0.217 0.043 0.002 0.005 0.004
1991 0.219 0.044 0.002 0.005 0.004
1992 0.221 0.044 0.002 0.005 0.004
1993 0.223 0.045 0.002 0.005 0.004
1994 0.225 0.045 0.002 0.005 0.004
1995 0.228 0.046 0.002 0.005 0.004
1996 0.230 0.046 0.002 0.005 0.004
1997 0.232 0.047 0.002 0.005 0.004
1998 0.235 0.047 0.002 0.005 0.004
1999 0. 237 0.048 0.002 0.005 0.004
2000 0.239 0.048 0.002 0.005 0.004
2001 0.242 0.048 0.002 0.005 0.004
2002 0.244 0.049 0.002 0.005 0.004
2003 0.246 0.049 0.002 0.005 0.004
2004 0.249 0.050 0.002 0.005 0.004
2005 0.251 0.050 0.002 0.005 0.004
2006 0.254 0.051 0.002 0.005 0.004
2007 0.256 0.051 0.002 0.005 0.004
2008 0.259 0.052 0.003 0.005 0.004
2009 0.262 0.052 0.003 0.006 0.004
2010 0.264 0.053 0.003 0.006 0.004
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OMN.083
VARIABLES: 809 Bll Bl4 816 Bl7
K-108
-
-
-·.
-·
-.
-
~.
-!
"""'·
~
-
~
,...
-
,_
!"""'
I""' f
/
,...
-
r
/"""
!'"""
,....
r
l_l
~
!
-I
TABLE K.28b. REGIONAL
Nome Seward
1982 0.100 0.017
1983 0.101 0.018
1984 0.102 0.018
1985 0.103 0.018
1986 0.104 0.018
1987 0.105 0.018
1988 0.106 0.019
1989 0.107 0.019
1990 0.108 0.019
1991 0.109 0.019
1992 0.110 0.019
1993 0.112 0.019
1994 0.113 0.020
1995 0.114 0.020
1996 0.115 0.020
1997 0.116 0.020
1998 0.117 0.020
1999 0.118 0.021
2000 0.120 0.021
2001 0.121 0.021
2002 0.122 0.021
2003 0.123 0.022
2004 0.124 0.022
2005 0.126 0.022
2006 0.127 0.022
2007 0.128 0.022
2008 0.129 0.023
2009 0.131 0.023
2010 0.132 0.023
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OMN.083
VARIABLES: B18 B21 825 B26 B29
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
OTHER MINING
(continued)
Upper Valdez-Chitina-Yukon-
Yukon Whittier Koyukuk
0.010 0.004 0.091
0.010 0.004 0.091
0.011 0.004 0.092
0.011 0.004 0.093
0.011 0.004 0.094
0.011 0.004 0.095
0.011 0.004 0.096
0.011 0.005 0.097
0.011 0.005 0.098
0.011 0.005 0.099
0.011 0.005 0.100
0.012 0.005 0.101
0.012 0.005 0.102
0.012 0.005 0.103
0.012 0.005 0.104
0.012 0.005 0.105
0.012 0.005 0.106
0.012 0.005 0.107
0.012 0.005 0.108
0.013 0.005 0.109
0.013 0.005 0.111
0.013 0.005 0.112
0.013 0.005 0.113
0.013 0.005 0.114
0.013 0.005 0.115
0.013 0.005 0.116
0.013 0.005 0.117
0.014 0.006 0.118
0.014 0.006 0.120
K-109
K-110
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
14. Agriculture
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Agriculture experiences moderate growth. In light of declining
state revenues, state support of agriculture declines. Development
is limited to the Delta region in the Tanana Valley, with marginal
development taking place in the Nenana area. Growth in the
Matanuska Valley is minimal, and Point MacKenzie development in
dairy farming will also be minimal. Dairy price supports,
politically vulnerable, will be reduced making long run competition
for Alaskan dairy products very difficult. No growth takes place in
the Susitna Valley.
Eighty thousand acres of the Delta projects as well as half of
the average of the Nenana projects (87 ,500 acres) are assumed to be
brought into production gradually by the yea~ 2000. The employment
figures for that acreage are determined assuming that two
agricultural jobs are created by each 1,000 acres brought into grain
production. This yields a 10.6 percent rate of growth over the
20-year period. Beyond the year 2000, a 3 percent rate of growth is
assumed.
Total production in the Matanuska-Susitna region is assumed to
grow by 2 percent per year. Dairy farms and truck farms at Point
MacKenzie grow marginally.
SOURCE: State of Alaska, Agricultural Action Council, First
Report; and Mike Herker, Financing Agricultural Projects in Alaska.
K-111
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.29a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
AGRICULTURE
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLE: EMAGRI
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CASE AGR.PJM
K-112
Agriculture
Employment
0.194
0.203
0.211
0.219
0.228
0.239
0.250
0.263
0.276
0.291
0.306
0.325
0.343
0.365
0.389
0.414
0.442
0.474
o. 508
0.527
0. 546
0.568
0. 589
0.611
0.634
0.660
0.686
0. 712
0. 740
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I""
Institute of Social -and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
r-TABLE K.29b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
AGRICULTURE
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian Kenai-Matanuska-
Islands Fairbanks Cook Inlet Kodiak Susitna
1982 0.013 0.053 0.008 0.005 0.115
1983 0.013 0.060 0.009 0.005 0.116
1984 0.013 0.066 0.009 0.006 0.117 -1985 0.013 0.073 0.009 0.006 0.118
1986 0.013 0.080 0.009 0.006 0.120
/"""' 1987 0.013 0.089 0.010 0.006 0.121
1988 0.013 0.099 0.010 0.006 0.122
1989 0.013 0.110 0.010 0.007 0.123
1990 0.013 0.121 0.011 0.007 0.124
"""·
1991 0.013 0.134 0.011 0.007 0.126
1992 0.013 0.148 0.011 0.007 0.127
1993 0.013 0.165 0.012 0.007 0.128
1994 0.013 0.182 0.012 0.007 0.129
1995 0.013 0.201 0.012 0.008 0.131 -1996 0.013 0.223 0.013 0.008 0.132
1997 0.013 0.247 0.013 0.008 0.133
1998 0.013 0.273 0.013 0.008 0.135
!""'· 1999 0.013 0.302 0.014 0.009 0.136
2000 0.013 0.335 0.014 0.009 0.137 -2001 0.013 0.351 0.015 0.009 0.139
2002 0.013 0.369 0.015 0.009 0.140
2003 0.013 0.387 0.016 0.010 0.142
2004 0.013 0.407 0.016 0.010 0.143 -zoos 0.013 0.427 0.017 0.010 0.144
2006 0.013 0.448 0.017 0.010 0.146 ,.... 2007 0.013 0.471 0.018 0.011 0.147
2008 0.013 0.495 0.018 0.011 0.149
2009 0.013 0. 519 0.019 0.011 0.150 -2010 0.013 0. 545 . 0.019 0.012 0.151
SOURCE: MAP HODEL CASE AGR.PJH ,.... VARIABLES: B01 B09 812 B15 B17
K-113
K-114
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
-
-
-1'
-
-
-
15. Forest and Lumber Products
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Employment in the forest and lumber products industry expands to
over 3,200 by 1990, remains stable for a decade, and then declines
to 2, 800 by the year 2010. Timber harvests in national forests
(primarily, Tongass in Southeast) remains at its long run sustained
yield at 450 MMBF annually. The harvest on national forest land is
the only harvest that contributes to jobs in the processing side of
the industry, as most other harvesting has no primary processing
requirements. The major harvest, other than that in Tongass
National Forest, comes from Native regional and village corporation
land located in Southeast, the Prince William Sound area, and on
Afognak Island. Total harvestable timber on these lands, which 1s
mature timber, is approximately 18.4 MMMBF, of which most will be
harvested by the year 2010. All that will remain to be harvested of
this timber is about 3 MMMBF in Southeast Alaska, which will be
harvested over the 2010-2020 decade. Employment in the areas
outside of these major areas is expected to grow according to local
needs, which will be moderate. Over the next three decades most
local domestic lumber needs, aside from a few rough cut mills, will
be supplied by imported kiln dried lumber.
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor, Alaska Economic Trends;
J. Mehrkins, 1982 Timber Supply and Demand, Draft, U.S.F.S., Juneau,
November 1982; Land Settlement Alternatives for the Chugach Region,
ISER, October 1981; and E. L. Arobio, A. F. Gasbarro, and
W. G. Workman, Chugach Land Management Plan: Supply and Demand
Assessment for Resources of the Chugach N~tional Forest, U.S.F.S.,
June 1979.
K-115
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.30a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FOREST AND LUMBER PRODUCTS
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE FLL.083
VARIABLE: EMKX2
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage Exogenous
Manufacturing Employment
K-116
2.037
2.325
2.472
2.657
2.843
3.027
3.119
3.167
3.214
3.214
3.218
3.218
3.218
3.219
3.219
3.219
3.221
3.222
3.202
3.106
2.903
2.880
2.859
2.838
2.769
2. 770
2. 770
2. 774
2.776
-
-
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 ,....,
TABLE K.30b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FOREST AND LUMBER PRODUCTS
~ (thousands of employees)
Cordova-Southeast Kenai-
Anchorage McCarthy Fairbanks Alaska Cook Inlet
1982 0.030 0.025 0.018 1. 730 0.012
1983 0.030 0.025 0.018 2.000 0.012
1984 0.030 0.025 0.020 2.126 0.012
1985 0.030 0.071 0.020 2.264 0.013
1986 0.032 0.140 0.020 2.379 0.013
1987 0.032 0.232 0.020 2.471 0.013
1988 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.540 0.013
1989 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.586 0.013 -1990 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.632 0 ,,014
1991 0.032 0.255 0.020 2.632 0.014
1992 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.014 ,_ 1993 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.014
1994 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.014
1995 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
'r""'
1996 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
1997 0.034 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
1998 0.036 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
1999 0.036 0.255 0.022 2.632 0.015
2000 0.036 0.232 0.024 2.632 0.016
2001 0.036 0.186 0.024 2.632 0.016
2002 0.036 0.163 0.024 2.632 0.016
2003 0.036 0.140 0.024 2.632 0.016
2004 0.038 0.117 0.024 2.632 0.016
2005 0.038 0.094 0.024 2.632 0.017
2006 0.038 0.025 0.024 2.632 0.017
2007 0.038 0.025 0.024 2.632 0.017
2008 0.038 0.025 0.024 2.632 0.017
2009 0.038 0.025 0.026 2.632 0.018
?""" 2010 0.040 0.025 0.026 2.632 0.018
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE FLL.083
VARIABLES: B02 B08 B09 B11 B12
fl""'',
K-117
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.30b. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FOREST AND LUMBER PRODUCTS
(continued)
Kodiak Seward
1982 0.212 0.010
1983 0.230 0.010
1984 0.249 0.010
1985 0.249 0.010
1986 0.249 0.010
1987 0.249 0.010
1988 0.249 0.010
1989 0.249 0.012
1990 0.249 0.012
1991 0.249 0.012
1992 0.249 0.012
1993 0.249 0.012
1994 0.249 0.012
1995 0.249 0.012
1996 0.249 0.012
1997 0.249 0.012
1998 0.249 0.012
1999 0.249 0.013
2000 0.249 0.013
-2001 0.199 0.013
2002 0.019 0.013
2003 0.019 0.013
2004 0.019 0.013
2005 0.020 0.013
2006 0.020 0.013
2007 0.020 0.014
2008 0.020 0.014
2009 0.021 0.014
2010 0.021 0.014
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE FLL.083
VARIABLES: B15 B21
K-118
-
-.
-
-
......
-
-
.....
16. Pulp Mill Employment
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Capacity in the two pulp mills in the Southeast region remains
at its current level, with no new plants likely to be feasible
anywhere in the state. Assured timber supplies through the
Ketchikan and Sitka long-term contracts as well as low-quality logs
harvested from Native corporation lands should provide sufficient
supplies of low-cost raw material to keep the existing mills running
profitably at near full capacity through 2010. A gradual decline in
employment of 1 percent per year, beginning in 1984, results from
the continued introduction of new labor-saving equipment.
SOURCE: J. Mehrkins, 1982 Timber Supply and Demand, Draft,
U.S.F.S., Juneau, November 1982.
K-119
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.3la. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
PULP MILL EMPLOYMENT
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage Exogenous
Manufacturing Employment
0.930
0.980
0.970
0.960
0.951
0.941
0.932
0.923
0.913
0.904
0.895
0.886
0.877
0.869
0.860
0.851
0.843
0.834
0.826
0.818
0.810
0.802
0. 794
0. 786
0. 778
0. 770
0.762
0.755
o. 747
SOURCE: MAP HODEL CASE FPU.082
VARIABLE: EMMX2
K-120
-
-
~
I
,"""\'
-
-
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.31b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
PULP MILL EMPLOYMENT
(thousands of employees}
Southeast Alaska
1982 0.930
1983 0.980
1984 0.970
1985 0.960
1986 0.951
1987 0.941
1988 0.932
1989 0.923
1990 0.913
1991 0.904
1992 0.895
1993 0.886
1994 0.877
1995 0.869
1996 0.860
1997 0.851
1998 0.843
1999 0.834
2000 0.826
2001 0.818
2002 0.810
2003 0.802
2004 0. 794
2005 0. 786
2006 0. 778
2007 0. 770
2008 0. 762
2009 0.755
2010 0.747
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE FPU.082
VARIABLE: Bll
K-121
K-122
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
....
.....
-
....
-
-
-
-
-
.....
'
-
....
-
17. Commercial Fishing (Nonbottomfish)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Existing fisheries harvesting employment returns to and remains
constant at its 1980 level of 6, 363 measured on an average annual
basis. Processing employment also returns to its 1980 level of
7,123. This assumes any increase in the productivity of fisheries
can be matched by corresponding increases in food processing
productivity .
SOURCE: G. Rogers and R. Listowski, Measuring the Socioeconomic
Impacts of Alaska's Fisheries, ISER, April 1980; and Alaska
Department of Labor, Alaska Economic Trends.
K-123
Institute of Social
and Economic Research .~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
....
TABLE K.32a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
COMMERCIAL FISHING (NONBOTTOMFISH)
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Fish Exogenous
Harvesting Manufacturing
Employment Employment -
1982 5.179 5.800
1983 6.363 7.123 -1984 6.363 7.123
1985 6.363 7.123 ....
1986 6.363 7.123
1987 6.363 7.123
1988 6.363 7.123
1989 6.363 7.123 -
1990 6.363 7.123
1991 6.363 7.123 -1992 6.363 7.123
1993 6.363 7.123
1994 6.363 7.123
1995 6.363 7.123
1996 6.363 7.123
1997 6.363 7.123 ~
1998 6.363 7.123
1999 6.363 7.123
2000 6.363 7.123 ....
2001 6.363 7.123
2002 6.363 7.123 -2003 6.363 7.123
2004 6.363 7.123
2005 6.363 7.123
2006 6.363 7.123 -2007 6.363 7.123
2008 6.363 7.123
2009 6.363 7.123 ~
2010 6.363 7.123
-SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE TCF.002
VARIABLES: EMF ISH EMMX2
K-124
...,..
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.32b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
COMMERCIAL FISHING (NONBOTTOMFISH)
r (thousands of employees)
.... Aleutian Bristol Bay Cordova-
Islands Anchorage Bethel Borough McCarthy
....
1982 1. 770 0.390 0.221 1.327 0. 589
1983 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1984 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 o. 723
1985 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1986 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1987 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1988 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1989 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
~11lji. 1990 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 o. 723
1991 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1992 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723 -1993 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 o. 723 I
1994 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1995 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1996 2.174 0.479 0. 271 1.630 0.723
1997 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
1998 2.174 0.479 0. 271 1.630 0. 723
1999 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
2000 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
,.... 2001 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
2002 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
2003 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 o. 723
F""' 2004 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
2005 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 o. 723
2006 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
2007 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
2008 2.174 0.479 0. 271 1.630 o. 723
2009 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 o. 723
r 2010 2.174 0.479 0.271 1.630 0. 723
"""' SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE TCF.002
VARIABLES: BOl B02 B05 806 808
....
K-125
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research '-MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.32b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
COMMERCIAL FISHING (NONBOTTOMFISH}
(continued) -
Southeast Kenai--Alaska Cook Inlet Kobuk Kodiak Kuskokwim
1982 2.943 1.020 0.035 2.366 0.004 -1983 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1984 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1985 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -
1986 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1987 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 """'i 1988 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1989 3.615 1. 253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1990 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -1991 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1992 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1993 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -1994 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1995 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
~.
1996 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1997 3.615 1. 253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1998 3.615 1. 253 0.043 2.907 0.004
1999 3.615 1. 253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -2000 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2001 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 """' 2002 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2003 3.615 1. 253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2004 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2005 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004 -
2006 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2007 3.615 1. 253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2008 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2009 3.615 1.253 0.043 2.907 0.004
2010 3.615 1. 253 0.043 2.907 0.004
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE TCF.002
VARIABLES: Bll 812 B14 Bl5 B16
K-126
Institute of Social -and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
["""'
TABLE K.32b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
COMMERCIAL FISHING (NONBOTTOMFISH)
(continued)
-Valdez-Chitina-I
Nome Seward Whittier Wade Hampton
!""""
1982 0.044 0.048 0.043 0.179
1983 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1984 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
!'""" 1985 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1986 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
I""" 1987 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1988 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1989 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
.... 1990 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1991 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1992 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
I""" 1993 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1994 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1995 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1996 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1997 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1998 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
1999 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2000 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
f""' 2001 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2002 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2003 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2004 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2005 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2006 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220 ...... 2007 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2008 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2009 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
2010 0.054 0.059 0.053 0.220
!"""'' SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE TCF.002
VARIABLES: 818 821 826 B27
.-
K-127
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-'
-
-
-
-
-
-
K-128
-
r
!
-
18. Catcher-Processor-Dominated Bottomfishing
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The total U.S. share of the Alaska bottomfish catch expands at a
constant rate until it reaches 100 percent of the allowable harvest
by 2000. Seventy percent of the catch will be processed by
catcher-processor vessels, and 30 percent by onshore plants.
Because catcher-processor vessels operating in Alaska waters are
mostly owned and operated by fishermen residing outs ide the state,
the Alaska total employment growth is modest. We assume only
10 percent of fishing employees in joint-venture trawlers and
catcher-processor vessels are Alaska residents, while SO percent of
workers in the shore-based processing plants and 50 percent of the
fishermen in the shore-based fishery are residents.
SOURCE: Navarin Basin Statewide and Regional Demographic and
Economic Systems Impacts Forecast, Technical Report Number 78,
Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program, U.S. Bureau of Land
Management, March 1983, Appendix K.
K-129
SOURCE:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
TABLE K.33a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
CATCHER-PROCESSOR-DOMINATED BOTTOHFISHING
(thousands of employees)
Low Wage
Fish Exogenous
Harvesting Manufacturing
Employment Employment
1982 0.038 0.004
1983 0.058 0.005
1984 0.081 0.006
1985 0.108 0.009
1986 0.136 0.012
1987 0.164 0.016
1988 0.181 0.022
1989 0.216 0.027
1990 0.229 0.042
1991 0.245 0.058
1992 0.266 0.079
1993 0.292 0.108
1994 0.326 0.148
1995 0.368 0.202
1996 0.421 0.276
1997 0.488 0.378
1998 0. 572 0.517
1999 0.678 0. 708
2000 0.733 0.971
2001 0.733 0.971
2002 0.733 0.971
2003 0.733 0.971
2004 0.733 0.971
2005 0.733 0.971
2006 0.733 0.971
2007 0.733 0.971
2008 0.733 o. 971
2009 0.733 0.971
2010 o. 733 0.971
MAP MODEL CASE BCF.183
VARIABLES: EMFISH EMMX2
K-130
-
-
-
-
~
-
~;j
"""""
-
~
-
~'I
~~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.33b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
CATCHER-PROCESSOR-DOMINATED BOTTOMFISHING
(thousands of employees)
Aleutian
Islands Anchorage
1982 0.034 0.008
1983 0.051 0.012
1984 0.071 0.016
1985 0.095 0.022
1986 0.120 0.028
1987 0.146 0.034
1988 0.165 0.038
1989 0.200 0.043
1990 0.220 0.051
1991 0.246 0.057
1992 0.280 0.065
1993 0.325 0.075
1994 0.385 0.089
1995 0.463 0.107
1996 0.566 0.131
1997 0. 703 0.163
1998 0.884 0.205
1999 1.125 0.261
2000 1.383 0.321
2001 1.383 0.321
2002 1.383 0.321
2003 1.383 0.321
2004 1.383 0.321
2005 1.383 0.321
2006 1.383 0.321
2007 1.383 0.321
2008 1.383 0.321
2009 1.383 0.321
2010 1.383 0.321
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE BCF.l83
VARIABLES: 801 802
K-131
K-132
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
-
-
-.;,
-
-
-
-'
-I
19. Federal Military
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Military employment has declined erratically and slowly over the
past 15 years. We assume that future military employment remains at
its 1980 average level with the same distribution around the state
as at that time.
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical Quarterly, U.S.
Census, 1980; and Alaska Air Command.
K-133
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL MILITARY
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLE: EKGM
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995.
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CASE GFM.082
Active Duty
Military Employment
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
23.323
K-134
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.....
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL MILITARY
f""' (thousands of employees)
.-Aleutian Barrow-Bristol Bay
Islands Anchorage North Slope Bethel Borough
1982 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1983 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
l984 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
,Pft. 1985 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1986 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369 -1987 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1988 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1989 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1990 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1991 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1992 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1993 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1994 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1995 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369 -1996 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1997 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1998 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
!""' 1999 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2000 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
!'I""' 2001 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2002 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2003 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2004 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2005 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2006 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369 ,.... 2007 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369 :
2008 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
2009 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369 -·, 2010 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
'
SOURCE: MAP·MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES: GOl G02 G04 G05 G06
pHI
K-135
""'""'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS -
FEDERAL MILITARY
(continued) -
Cordova-Southeast Kenai-
McCarthy Fairbanks Alaska Cook Inlet Kobuk
1982 {).054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -1983 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1984 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1985 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -
1986 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1987 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -1988 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1989 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1990 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1991 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1992 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1993 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -1994 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1995 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1996 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 ~
1997 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1998 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
1999 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -2000 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2001 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2002 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2003 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2004 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2005 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2006 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2007 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 -2008 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2009 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
2010 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES: G08 G09 Gll G12 Gl4 -
K-136 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL MILITARY
,.,,,
(continued)
!""" Matanuska-
Kodiak Kuskokwim Susitna Nome Seward
F"" 1982 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1983 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1984 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
I""" 1985 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1986 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014 -1987 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1988 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1989 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1990 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1991 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1992 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1993 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1994 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1995 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014 -1996 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1997 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1998 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
1999 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2000 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014 -2001 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2002 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2003 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2004 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2005 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2006 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2007 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2008 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2009 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
2010 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES: G15 G16 G17 G18 G21
!""'
I
K-137
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ·~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.34b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ~
FEDERAL MILITARY
(continued} -
Southeast Upper Valdez-Chitina-Wade Yukon--Fairbanks Yukon Whittier Hampton Koyukuk
1982 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -
1983 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1984 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1985 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -
1986 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1987 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -1988 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1989 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1990 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -1991 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1992 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1993 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 "'""l
1994 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1995 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1996 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1997 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1998 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1999 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 """\
2000 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2001 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -2002 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2003 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2004 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2005 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -
2006 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2007 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -2008 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2009 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
2010 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 -.
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GFM.082
VARIABLES: G24 G25 G26 G27 G29 ~
K-138
-
-
-
-
20. Federal Civilian
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Federal civilian government employment has grown historically in
Alaska at about 0.5 percent annually over the past two decades. We
assume this trend continues through 2010, with the regional
distribution similar to the 1980 distribution.
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical Quarterly, and
Alaska Economic Trends, March 1983.
K-139
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.35a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
SOURCE: MAP MODEL
VARIABLE: EMGC
(thousands of employees)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CASE GFC.083
Civilian
Federal Employment
17.900
17.989
18.079
18.170
18.261
18.352
18.444
18.536
18.629
18.722
18.815
18.909
19.004
19.099
19.194
19.290
19.387
19.484
19.581
19.679
19.777
19.876
19.976
20.076
20.176
20.277
20.378
20.480
20.583
K-140
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
r""'
.-
-I
!""'
r
I
r""
r
r-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.35b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
(thousands of employees)
·Aleutian
Islands Anchorage
1982 0.7.02 9.738
1983 0. 705 9.786
1984 0.709 9.835
1985 0. 712 9.884
1986 o. 716 9.934
1987 o. 719 9.983
1988 0. 723 10.033
1989 0.727 10.084
1990 0.730 10.134
1991 0.734 10.185
1992 0.738 10.236
1993 0.741 10.287
1994 0.745 10.338
1995 0.749 10.390
1996 0. 752 10.442
1997 0. 756 10.494
1998 0.760 10.546
1999 0. 764 10.599
2000 0.768 10.652
2001 0. 771 10.705
2002 0. 775 10.759
2003 0. 779 10.813
2004 0. 783 10.867
2005 0.787 10.921
2006 o. 791 10.976
2007 0. 795 11.031
2008 0. 799 11.086
2009 0.803 11.141
2010 0.807 11.197
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES: GOl G02 G04 G05 G06
Barrow-Bristol Bay
North Slope Bethel Borough
0.247 0.410 0.192
0.248 0.412 0.192
0.249 0.414 0.193
0.251 0.416 0.194
0.252 0.418 0.195
0.253 0.420 0.196
0.255 0.422 0.197
0.256 0.424 0.198
0.257 0.427 0.199
0.258 0.429 0.200
0.260 0.431 0.201
0.261 0.433 0.202
0.262 0.435 0.203
0.264 0.437 0.204
0.265 0.440 0.205
0.266 0.442 0.206
0.268 0.444 0.207
0.269 0.446 0.208
0.270 0.448 0.210
0.272 0.451 0.211
0.273 0.453 0.212
0.274 0.455 0.213
0.276 0.457 0.214
0. 277 0.460 0.215
0.278 0.462 0.216
0.280 0.464 0.217
0.281 0.467 0.218
0.283 0.469 0.219
0.284 0.471 '0.220
K-141
TABLE K.35b. REGIONAL
Cordova-
McCarthy Fairbanks
1982 0.036 2.314
1983 0.036 2.326
1984 0.036 2.338
1985 0.036 2.349
1986 0.037 2.361
1987 0.037 2.373
1988 0.037 2.385
1989 0.037 2.397
1990 0.037 2.409
1991 0.037 2.421
1992 0.038 2.433
1993 0.038 2.445
1994 0.038 2.457
1995 0.038 2.469
1996 0.038 2.482
1997 0.039 2.494
1998 0.039 2.507
1999 0.039 2.519
2000 0.039 2.532
2001 0.039 2.545
2002 0.040 2.557
2003 0.040 2.570
2004 0.040 2.583
2005 0.040 2.596
2006 0.040 2.609
2007 0.041 2.622
2008 0.041 2.635
2009 0.041 2.648
2010 0.041 2.661
SOURCE: MAP HODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES: G08 G09 Gl1 Gl2 Gl4
Institute of Social
and Economic Research """'!
MAP Documentation
May 1983
BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS -FEDERAL CIVILIAN
(continued)
Southeast Kenai
Alaska Cook Inlet Kobuk
2.402 0.104 0.247 """"·
2.414 0.104 0.248
2.426 0.105 0.249
2.438 0.105 0.251
2.451 0.106 0.252
2.463 0.106 0.253
2.475 0.107 0.255 """1
2.488 0.108 0.256
2.500 0.108 0.257 -2.512 0.109 0.258
2.525 0.109 0.260
2.538 0.110 0.261
2.550 0.110 0.262
2.563 0.111 0.264
2.576 0.111 0.265
2.589 0.112 0.266
2.602 0.112 0.268
2.615 0.113 0.269 -2.628 0.114 0.270
2.641 0.114 0.272 -2.654 0.115 0.273
2.667 0.115 0.274
2.681 0.116 0.276
2.694 0.116 0. 277
2.708 0.117 0.278
2.721 0.118 0.280 !4"11
2.735 0.118 0.281
2. 748 0.119 0.283
2.762 0.119 0.284 .Ill!!!\
....
-·
K-142
-
~
-
!""'
!"""
,....
!"""'
-
TABLE K.35b. REGIONAL
Kodiak Kuskokwim
1982 0.285 0.077
1983 0.286 0.077
1984 0.287 0.078
1985 0.289 0.078
1986 0.290 0.079
1987 0.292 0.079
1988 0.293 0.079
1989 0.295 0.080
1990 0.296 0.080
1991 0.298 0.081
1992 0.299 0.081
1993 0.301 0.081
1994 0.302 0.082
1995 0.304 0.082
1996 0.305 0.083
1997 0.307 0.083
1998 0.308 0.083
1999 0.310 0.084
2000 0.311 0.084
2001 0.313 0.085
2002 0.314 0.085
2003 0.316 0.085
2004 0.318 0.086
2005 0.319 0.086
2006 0.321 0.087
2007 0.322 0.087
2008 0.324 0.088
2009 0.326 0.088
2010 0.327 0.089
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES: Gl5 G16 G17 Gl8 G21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
(continued)
Matanuska
Susitna Nome Seward
0.097 0.177 0.068
0.097 0.178 0.068
0.098 0.179 0.069
0.098 0.180 0.069
0.099 0.181 0.069
0.099 0.182 0.070
0.100 0.183 0.070
0.100 0.184 0.070
0.101 0.184 0.071
0.101 0.185 0.071
0.102 0.186 0.071
0.102 0.187 0.072
0.103 0.188 0.072
0.103 0.189 0.073
0.104 0.190 0.073
0.104 0.191 0.073
0.105 0.192 0.074
0.105 0.193 0.074
0.106 0.194 0.074
0.106 0.195 0.075
0.107 0.196 0.075
0.107 0.197 0.076
0.108 0.198 0.076
0.108 0.199 0.076
0.109 0.200 0.077
0.109 0.201 0.077
0.110 0.202 0.077
0.111 0.203 0.078
0.111 0.204 0.078
K-143
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -· TABLE K.35b. REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
FEDERAL CIVILIAN
(continued}
Southeast Upper Valdez-Chitna Wade Yukon -Fairbanks Yukon Whittier Hampton Koyukuk -
1982 0.335 0.034 0.045 0.134 0.258
1983 0.336 0.034 0.045 0.135 0.259
1984 0.338 0.034 0.045 0.136 0.260
1985 0.340 0.035 0.045 0.136 0.262
1986 0.341 0.035 0.046 0.137 0.263
1987 0.343 0.035 0.046 0.138 0.264
1988 0.345 0.035 0.046 0.138 0.266
1989 0.347 0.035 0.046 0.139 0.267
"""' 1990 0.348 0.035 0.047 0.140 0.268
1991 0.350 0.036 0.047 0.140 0.270
1992 0.352 0.036 0.047 0.141 o. 271 -'
1993 0.354 0.036 0.047 0.142 0.272
1994 0.355 0.036 0.048 0.143 0.274
1995 0.357 0.036 0.048 0.143 0.275 -
1996 0.359 0.036 0.048 0.144 0.276
1997 0.361 0.037 0.048 0.145 0.278
1998 0.363 0.037 0.048 0.145 0.279
1999 0.364 0.037 0.049 0.146 0.281
2000 0.366 0.037 0.049 0.147 0.282
~
2001 0.368 0.037 0.049 0.148 0.283
2002 0.370 0.038 0.049 0.148 0.285
2003 0.372 0.038 0.050 0.149 0.286 -2004 0.374 0.038 0.050 0.150 0.288
2005 0.375 0.038 0.050 0.151 0.289
2006 0.377 0.038 0.050 0.151 0.291 """"·
2007 0.379 0.039 0.051 0.152 0.292
2008 0.381 0.039 0.051 0.153 0.293
2009 0.383 0.039 0.051 0.154 0.295 -2010 0.385 0.039 0.051 0.154 0.296
~.
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE GFC.083
VARIABLES: G24 G25 G26 G27 G29
""""·
.K-144 -
21. Tourism
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
THe number of visitors to Alaska has increased by an average of
approximately 50,000 per year over the past five years. We project
this trend to continue as a linear (rather than exponential) trend
through 2010, projected from a 1981 base of 630,000.
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Commerce, Division of Tourism.
K-145
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.36a. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TOURISM
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE TRS.082
VARIABLE: TOURIST
Tourists Entering
Alaska (000)
680.000
730.000
780.000
830.000
880.000
930.000
980.000
1030.000
1080.000
1130.000
1180.000
1230.000
1280.000
1330.000
1380.000
1430.000
1480.000
1530.000
1580.000
1630.000
1680.000
1730.000
1780.000
1830.000
1880.000
1930.000
1980.000
2030.000
2080.000
K-146
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I
22. Petroleum Revenues
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
In addition to basic employment assumptions, major elements of
state petroleum revenues are located in the scenario model files.
Royalty and production tax revenue projections are taken from
Petroleum Production Revenue Forecast, a quarterly publication of
Alaska Department of Revenue, Petroleum Revenue Division, which
publishes the results of simulations using the model PETREV. State
corporate petroleum tax revenue is assumed to· grow at 7 percent
nominal growth rate over time, consistent with the increasing
physical presence of the industry in the state. Non-OCS related
state property tax revenue increases at 3.5 percent annually
reflecting the net effects of both inflation, depreciation of the
existing stock of taxable p~troleum property within the state.
State bonus payment revenue is a function of state lease sales and
consequently subject to very substantial year-to-year fluctuation.
This source of revenue is assumed to fall to zero over an
approximately 15-year period.
K-147
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.37. STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
SO % PROBABILITY PETROLEUM REVENUES
(millions of current $)
State
State State State Corporate
Bonus Property State Production Petroleum
Payment Tax Royalty Tax Tax
Revenue Revenue Income Revenue Revenue
1982 6. 700 142.700 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 ~'
1983 26.100 148.600 1430.000 1480.000 235.000
1984 11.066 153.200 1200.000 122 0 .ooo 2 72 .ooo
1985 4.692 158.000 1240.000 1260.000 2 95.000 '"""'
1986 1.990 163.456 1350.000 1350.000 315.650
1987 0.844 169.101 1450.000 1430.000 337.745 -1 1988 0.358 174.940 1520.000 1500.000 361.387
1989 0.152 180.981 1650.000 1380.000 386.684
1990 0.064 187.231 1710.000 1420.000 413.751 """~
1991 0.02 7 193.697 15 70.000 12 30.000 442.714
1992 0.012 200.385 1550.000 1150.000 473.704
1993 0.005 207.305 1520.000 1110.000 506.863 -1994 0.002 214.464 1500.000 1090.000 542.343
1995 0.001 221.870 1410.000 1000.000 580.306
1996 0.000 22 9.532 12 90.000 910.000 62 0.92 7
1997 0.000 237.458 1330.000 930.000 664.3 92
1998 0.000 245.658 1340.000 910.000 710.899
1999 0.000 254.141 1350.000 860.000 760.662 -
2000 0.000 262.917 1370.384 843.918 813.907
2001 0.000 2 71.996 1391.076 828. 136 870.881 ~.
2002 0.000 2 81.389 1412.081 812.650 931.842
2003 0.000 2 91.106 1433.402 797.453 997.070
2004 0.000 301. 158 1455.046 782.541 1066.865 -2005 0.000 311.558 1477.016 767.907 1141.545
2006 0.000 322.317 1499.318 753.547 1221.453
2007 0.000 3.33.44 7 1521.957 739.456 1306.954 -2008 0.000 344.962 1544.938 72 5.628 1398.440
2009 0.000 356.8 74 1568.2 66 712.058 1496.331
2010 0.000 369.198 1591.946 698.743 1601.073
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE DOR.5M83
VARIABLES: RPBS RPPS RPRY RPTS RTCSPX
K-148 -
~·
-
-
APPENDIX L
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
INPUT VARIABLES
L.l Exogenous and Policy Variables
L.2 Startup Values for 1980 and 1981
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
~
I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
'""""' L.l. Exogenous and Policy Variables
ANCSA BADD BALDFl BALGF1 BALPFl BAL991
1981 325.6 0. o. 821. 1827.3 2648.3
1982 0. o. 0. o. 3212.8 3212.8
1983 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1984 o. o. 0. o. 0. o.
1985 o. o. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1986 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
1987 0. o. o. 0. o. 0.
1988 0. 0. o. o. o. 0.
1989 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1990 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o.
1991 0. 0. 0. o. o. 0.
1992 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1993 o. 0. 0. 0. 0. o.
1994 0. o. o. 0. 0. o.
1995 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0.
1996 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ir=3J,
1997 0. o. o. o. 0. o.
1998 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1999 o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2000 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2001 o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2002 o. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
2003 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0.
2004 o. o. o. 0. 0. 0.
2005 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2006 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. ,-2007 o. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
2008 0. 0. o. 0. 0. o.
2009 o. 0. o. 0. o. 0. -2010 0. 0. 0. 0. o. o.
SOURCE: Simulation APABASE8.
-
-Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
BASEMCNX BASEPOP BASEXCAP BASEXGF BASEXOPS BASPDRPI -1981 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1982 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1983 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. .....
1984 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1985 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1986 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1987 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1988 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1989 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1990 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1991 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1992 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1993 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -, 1994 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1995 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1996 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1997 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -· 1998 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
1999 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2000 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2001 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2002 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2003 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2004 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2005 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2006 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2007 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2008 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2009 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
2010 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. .....
-
-
-
L-2
F"'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ,.... MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
BIU1 D.80DEC6 061.66 061.68 061.69 061. 70
1981 o. 1. ,.... 0. 0. 0. 0.
1982 0. 1. o. 0. 0. o.
1983 o. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1984 0. 0.75 o. 0. o. 0.
1985 o. 0.5 0. 0. 0. 0.
1986 0. 0.25 0. 0. o. 0.
1987 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
!"""' 1988 0. o. o. 0. 0. 0.
1989 0. 0. o. 0. 0. o.
1990 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1991 0. o. 0. o. 0. 0. r 1992 0. o. o. 0. 0. 0.
1993 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1994 o. o. o. 0. 0. 0.
1995 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
1996 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
1997 0. o. o. o. 0. 0.
,.... 1998 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1999 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2000 o. o. 0. 0. o. 0.
2001 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
!"""' 2002 0. o. 0. 0. o. 0.
2003 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
2004 o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2005 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0.
2006 o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2007 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2008 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2009 o. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
2010 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o.
..-
-
-
-
L-3
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
-061.72 061.73 061.74 061.75 061.76 061. 77
1981 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. ~ 1982 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1983 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1984 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1985 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1986 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1987 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o.
1988 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1989 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1990 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1991 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1992 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-,
1993 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1994 0. 0. . 0. 0. 0. 0.
1995 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ·-1996 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1997 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
1998 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1999 o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2000 0. o. 0. 0. o. 0.
2001 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0.
2002 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -
2003 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2004 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2005 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2006 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2007 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
2008 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -· 2009 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2010 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -
-
-
L-4
r-
.-
/"""
-
-
.....
f"""
I
-!
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
D64.65 D69 D71.00
0. 0. 1.
o. 0. 1.
o. 0. 1.
o. o. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
o. 0. 1.
0. o. 1.
o. o. 1.
o. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
o. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. o. 1.
0. o. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
o. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. 0. 1.
0. o. 1.
0. o. 1.
0. 0. 1.
L-5
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
D71. 73 072 075
o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
o. o. 0.
o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. o. 0.
0. 0. o.
0. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o.
0. o. 0.
o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
o. o. 0.
0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0 . 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
-
077.00 D79 081.00 EMAGRI EMCNXl EMCNX2
1981 1. o. 1. 0.188 1.433 -0.
1982 1. 0. 1. 0.194 2.269 0.125
1983 1. 0. 1. 0.203 3.261 0.29
1984 1. 0. 1. 0.211 2.203 0. 726 ~
1985 1. 0. 1. 0.219 2.627 0.863
1986 1. 0. 1. 0.228 2.911 0.85
1987 1. 0. 1. 0.239 3.069 0.613
1988 1. 0. 1. 0.25 3.128 0.401
1989 1. 0. 1. 0.263 3.244 0.875
1990 1. o. 1. 0.276 4.276 1.025
1991 1. 0. 1. 0.291 1.667 1.125 -
1992 1. 0. 1. 0.306 6.301 1.075
1993 1. 0. 1. 0.325 5.164 0.563
1994 1. 0. 1. 0.343 2.141 0.1
1995 1. 0. 1. 0.365 1. 529 o.
1996 1. 0. 1. 0.389 1.303 0.
1997 1. 0. 1. 0.414 1.303 0. ""'' 1998 1. 0. 1. 0.442 1.07 0.
1999 1. o. 1. 0.474 1.07 0.
2000 1. 0. 1. 0.508 1.07 0.
2001 1. 0. 1. 0. 527 1.07 0. -
2002 1. 0. 1. 0. 546 1.07 0.
2003 1. 0. 1. 0.568 1.07 0.
2004 1. 0. 1. 0.589 1.07 0. ~
2005 1. 0. 1. 0.611 1.07 0.
2006 1. 0. 1. 0.634 1.07 0.
2007 1. 0. 1. 0.66 1.063 0.
2008 1. o. 1. 0.686 1.063 0. ~
2009 1. 0. 1. 0. 712 1.056 o.
2010 1. 0. 1. 0.74 1.056 0.
-
-
L-6
-
I"""
'~
!"""'
-
.....
I
-'
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999·
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
EMF ISH EMGC
6.552 17:6
5.217 17.9
6.421 17.989
6.444 18.079
6.471 18.17
6.499 18.261
6.527 18.352
6.544 18.444
6.579 18.536
6.592 18.629
6.608 18.722
6.629 18.815
6.655 18.909
6.689 19.004
6. 731 19.099
6. 784 19.194
6.851 19.29
6.935 19.387
7.041 19.484
7.096 19.581
7.096 19.679
7.096 19.777
7.096 19.876
7.096 19.976
7.096 20.076
7.096 20.176
7.096 20.277
7.096 20.378
7.096 20.48
7.096 20.583
L-7
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
EMGM EMMX1 EMMX2 EMNATX
23.323 0. 10.283 0.17
23.323 0. 8. 771 0.17
23.323 0. 10.433 0.17
23.323 0. 10.5 71 0.17
23.323 0. 10.749 0.17
23.323 0. 10.929 0.17
23.323 o. 11.107 0.17
23.323 0. 11.196 0.17
23.323 o. 11.24 0.17
23.323 o. 11.292 0.17
23.323 0. 11.299 0.17
23.323 0. 11.315 0.17
23.323 0. 11.335 0.17
23.323 0. 11.366 0.17
23.323 0. 11.413 0.17
23.323 0. 11.478 0.17
23.323 0. 11.571 0.17
23.323 0. 11.704 0.17
23.323 0. 11.887 0.17
23.323 0. 12.122 0.17
23.323 o. 12.018 0.17
23.323 o. 11.807 0.17
23.323 0. 11.776 0.17
23.323 o. 11.747 0.17
23.323 0. 11.718 0.17
23.323 0. 11.641 0.17
23.323 o. 11.634 0.17
23.323 0. 11.626 0.17
23.323 0. 11.623 0.17
23.323 0. 11.617 0.17
. I
"""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -EMP9 EMT9X EXBOND EXCAP1 EXCPSHYl EXCPSNHl
1981 7.788 1.5 0.38 688.018 127.192 96.247
1982 8.411 1.5 0.8 944.515 150.115 117.283
1983 9.387 1. 552 0.67 750. 150. 100.
1984 9.983 1.631 0.35 0. 0. 0.
1985 11.279 1.949 0.3 0. 0. 0. -1986 12.4 2.157 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1987 13.149 2.471 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1988 14.062 2.804 0.3 0. . 0. 0. ~
1989 14.526 2.44 0.3 0. o. 0.
1990 14.797 2.752 0.3 0. 0. o.
1991 15.6 71 2.063 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1992 16.557 2.753 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1993 16.068 2.348 0.3 0. o. 0.
1994 16.969 3.147 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1995 17.329 3.055 0.3 o. 0. o. .ll!llli'IJI!,
1996 17.501 3.291 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1997 17.39 3.351 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1998 16.994 3.423 0.3 0. 0. 0.
1999 16.62 3.423 0.3 o. 0. 0.
2000 16.226 3.423 0.3 0. 0. 0.
2001 15.957 3.423 0.3 0. 0. o.
2002 15.888 3.423 0.3 0. 0. 0.
2003 16.089 3.423 0.3 o. 0. 0.
2004 16.143 3.423 0.3 0. 0. 0.
2005 16.197 3.423 0.3 0. o. 0.
2006 16.253 3.423 0.3 0. 0. 0.
2007 16.309 3.351 0.3 o. 0. o.
2008 16.34 3.351 0.3 0. 0. 0. -2009 16.223 3.279 0.3 0. o. 0.
2010 16.282 3.279 0.3 0. o. 0.
~I
-
-
....
L-8
F"'
-
-
,...
I"""
,...
....
-
I"""
I
l
I'"""
r
-
r-
1
EXDFPCNT EXDF1
1981 0. 0.
1982 0. 0.
1983 0. 0.
1984 0. 0.
1985 0. 0.
1986 0. 0.
1987 0. 0.
1988 0. o.
1989 0. 0.
1990 0. 0.
1991 0. 0.
1992 0. o.
1993 0. 0.
1994 0. 0.
1995 0. o.
1996 0. 0.
1997 0. o.
1998 0. 0-.
1999 0. 0.
2000 o. 0.
2001 0. o.
2002 0. 0.
2003 o. 0.
2004 0. 0.
2005 o. 0.
2006 0. 0.
2007 0. 0.
2008 0. o.
2009 0. 0.
2010 0. 0.
L-9
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
EXDSSX EXGFCHY1 EXGFCNHl EXOPS1
97.686 147.779 316.8 1581.6
102.325 140.017 537.1 1960.
136.4 100. 400. 2050.
131.2 0. 0. 0.
125.7 0. 0. 0.
121.6 0. 0. 0.
115.2 0. 0. 0.
110. 0. 0. o.
99.5 0. 0. 0.
86.2 o. 0. 0.
63.4 o. 0. 0.
38.2 0. 0. 0.
31.7 0. 0. 0.
25.8 0. 0. 0.
23.1 0. 0. 0.
21.5 0. o. 0.
16.7 0. 0. 0.
14.4 0. 0. 0.
9. 0. 0. 0.
2.6 o. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0.
0. o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. o. o. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. o.
o. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o. o.
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -Kay 1983
EXPFBAK EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFl EXPRPER EXSAVX ~
1981 0. 900. 0. 0.25 1. 0.
1982 0. 800. 1. 0.25 1. 0.
1983 0.5 400. 1. 0.25 1. 0.
1984 0.5 0. 1. 0.25 0.8 0.
1985 0. 5 o'. 1. 0.25 0.8 0. ""'1
1986 0.5 o. 1. 0.25 0.8 o.
1987 0.5 0. 1. 0.25 0.8 0.
1988 0.5 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
1989 0.5 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0. -1990 0. 0. o. 0.25 0.8 0.
1991 o. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
1992 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0. ~
1993 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
1994 o. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
1995 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 o. -1996 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 o.
1997 0. o. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
1998 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
1999 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0. ~
i
2000 o. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
2001 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
2002 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
2003 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
2004 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
2005 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 o.
2006 0. o. 0. 0.25 0.8 o. ~
2007 0. o. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
2008 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
2009 0. o. 0. 0.25 0.8 0. ~
2010 0. 0. 0. 0.25 0.8 0.
L-10 -
I"""'
Institute of Social
and Economic Resea~ch -MAP Documentation
May 1983
.....
i
EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSl GODTX GRDIRPU GREXCAP -1981 48. 0.513 772. 701. -0.001 -0.297
1982 429. 0.75 634. 842.4 0.001 0.423
1983 0. 0.75 500. 761.2 0.005 0.2 -1984 0. 0.75 350. 679.5 0.01 0.15
1985 0. 0. 75 300. 597.9 0.015 0.15
1986 0. 0.75 200. 515. 0.015 0.1
1987 0. 0. 75 100. 433. 0.015 0.1 -1988 o. o. 75 0. 350.6 0.015 0.1
1989 o. 0.75 o. 273.2 0.015 0.1
1990 o. 0.75 0. 203.9 0.015 0.1
1991 o. 0.75 0. 152.7 0.015 0.1
1992 0. 0.75 0. 122.9 0.015 0.1
1993 0. 0.75 0. 97.8 0.015 0.1
,.... 1994 o. 0.75 0. 77.2 0.015 0.1
1995 o. 0.75 0. 58.1 0.015 0.1
1996 0. 0.75 o. 39.5 0.015 0.1
1997 0. 0.75 0. 24.6 0.015 0.1
1998 0. 0. 75 o. 11.2 0.015 0.1
1999 0. 0.75 0. 2.6 0.015 0.1
2000 0. 0.75 o. 0. 0.015 0.1
I""' 2001 o. 0.75 o. 0. 0.015 0.1 I 2002 0. 0.75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1 I
2003 0. 0.75 o. 0. 0.015 0.1
!"""' 2004 0. 0. 75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1
I 2005 0. 0. 75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1
I
l 2006 0. 0.75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1
2007 0. 0. 75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1
2008 0. 0.75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1
2009 0. 0.75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1
2010 0. 0.75 0. 0. 0.015 0.1 -
L-11
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
.....
GREXOPS GRRPCEX GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI LPTRAT
1981 0.311 0.02 -0.016 0.02 0.1 0.2
1982 0.15 0.02 0.013 0.02 0.06 0.2 """ 1983 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
1984 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
1985 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.069 0.2 -1986 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.069 0.2
1987 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.075 0.2
1988 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2 -1989 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
1990 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1991 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.067 0.2
. 1992 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2 -1993 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1994 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1995 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.066 0.2
1996 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
1997 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
1998 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
1999 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2000 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2001 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2002 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2003 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2004 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2005 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2 ,....
2006 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2007 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2008 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
2009 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2 'llll!l'ij
2010 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 0.2
-
L-12 -
F
Institute of Social
and'Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
NCBP NCRP PCNC1 PCNC2 PCNC3 PCOLART
1981 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25 -1982 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25 I
1983 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1984 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25 ..... 1985 o. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1986 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1987 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25 -1988 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1989 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1990 o. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1991 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1992 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1993 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1994 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25 -1995 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1996 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1997 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1998 0. 0. -0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
1999 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2000 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2001 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2002 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2003 o. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2004 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25 -2005 o. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2006 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2007 0. 0. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2008 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2009 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
2010 0. o. 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.25
-
L-13
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
PDUSCPil PIPADJ PR.DPIU1 P9PTPER RLPTX RLTFPX
1981 272.3 1.62 3458. 0.5 o. 0.
1982 o. 1.62 o. -0.5 o. 0.
1983 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. o.
1984 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
1985 o. 1.62 o. 0.5 0. o.
1986 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
1987 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 o. o.
1988 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. o. ~~
1989 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 o. 0.
1990 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
1991 0. 1.62 o. 0.5 0. 0.
1992 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. o. ~
1993 o. 1. 62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
1994 0. 1.62 o. 0.5 0. 0.
1995 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
1996 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
1997 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
1998 0. 1.62 o. 0.5 0. 0. -1999 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. o.
2000 0. 1.62 o. 0.5 0. 0.
2001 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0.
2002 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. 0. -
2003 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 o. 0.
2004 o. 1.62 0. 0.5 o. o.
2005 0. 1. 62 0. 0.5 0. 0. -2006 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 0. o.
2007 o. 1.62 o. 0.5 0. o.
2008 0. 1.62 0. 0.5 o. o. --2009 0. 1.62 o. 0.5 0. 0.
2010 0. 1.62 o. 0.5 o. 0.
~
--
~
I
-
L-14
I~
,...
I
L-15
~-t
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation .~
May 1983
-RP9X RSFDNPX RSFDNX RTCSPX RTCSX RTISXX
1981 o. 11.3 0. 860.1 0. 80. ~
1982 o. 21.9 0. 668.9 0. 0.
1983 o. 23. o. 235. o. 0.
1984 0. 24. o. 272. 0. 0.
1985 0. 25. 0. 295. 0. o. -' 1986 0. 26. o. 315.65 0. 0.
1987 0. 27. 0. 337.745 o. 0.
1988 o. 28. 0. 361.387 0. 0. ~
1989 0. 29. 0. 386.684 o. o.
1990 o. 30. 0. 413.751 0. o.
1991 0. 31. o. 442.714 o. 0.
1992 o. 32. 0. 473.704 o. 0.
1993 o. 33. 0. 506.863 o. 0.
1994 0. 34. 0. 542.343 0. 0.
1995 o. 35. 0. 580.306 o. 0. ~
1996 o. 36. 0. 620.927 0. o.
1997 o. 37. o. 664.392 0. 0.
1998 o. 38. 0. 710.899 0. 0. ·-1999 o. 39. 0. 760.662 o. o.
2000 o. 40. 0. 813.907 0. 0.
2001 o. 41. 0. 870.881 0. 0.
2002 o. 42. o. 931.842 0. 0.
~,
2003 0. 43. o. 997.07 0. 0.
2004 0. 44. 0. 1066.86 0. 0.
2005 0. 45. 0. 1141.54 o. 0. -2006 o. 46. 0. 1221.45 o. o.
2007 0. 47. 0. 1306.95 0. 0.
2008 o. 48. 0. 1398.44 o. 0.
2009 o. 49. 0. 1496.33 0. 0.
2010 0. 50. 0. 1601.07 o. 0.
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-
L-16
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
SANCSA TCRED TOURIST TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX
1981 315.7 0. 630. o. 0. 0.
r 1982 0. o. 680. 0. 0. 0.
1983 0. 0. 730. 0. 0. o.
1984 0. 0. 780. 0. 0. 0.
"""' 1985 0. 0. 830. o. 0. 0.
1986 o. o. 880. 0. 0. 0.
1987 0. o. 930. 0. o. o.
,.., 1988 0. 0. 980. 0. 0. 0.
I 1989 0. 0. 1030. 0. 0. 0.
1990 0. 0. 1080. 0. 0. 0.
1991 0. 0. 1130. 0. 0. 0.
1992 0. 0. 1180. 0. 0. 0.
1993 o. o. 1230. 0. 0. 0.
1994 0. 0. 1280. 0. o. o.
,-. 1995 0. 0. 1330. 0. 0. 0.
1996 o. 0. 1380. 0. 0. 0.
1997 0. 0. 1430. 0. 0. 0.
1998 0. 0. 1480. 0. 0. 0. /"""" 1999 0. 0. 1530. 0. 0. 0.
2000 o. o. 1580. 0. 0. 0.
2001 0. o. 1630. o. 0. 0.
2002 0. 0. 1680. o. 0. 0.
2003 0. o. 1730. 0. o. 0.
2004 0. o. 1780. 0. 0. 0.
"'"' 2005 0. o. 1830. 0. 0. 0.
2006 0. 0. 1880. 0. 0. 0.
2007 o. o. 1930. 0. o. 0.
2008 0. o. 1980. 0. o. 0. -2009 0. 0. 2030. 0. 0. 0.
2010 0. o. 2080. 0. 0. 0.
r
L-17
~-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~
May 1983
~
TXRT uus VAEXl WEUSl XXMX2 YR -1981 0. 0.076 1000. 254.7 0. 1981.
1982 o. 0.097 1000. 0. o. 1982.
1983 o. 0.107 1000. 0. 0. 1983.
1984 0. 0.092 o. 0. o. 1984. -1985 0. 0.08 0. 0. 0. 1985.
1986 0. 0.07 0. o. 0. 1986.
1987 0. 0.065 0. 0. 0. 1987. -1988 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 1988.
1989 o. 0.06 0. o. o. 1989.
1990 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 1990.
1991 0. 0.06 0. o. o. 1991. -1992 0. 0.06 o. 0. 0. 1992.
1993 0. 0.06 o. 0. o. 1993.
1994 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 1994.
1995 o. 0.06 o. o. o. 1995.
1996 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 1996.
1997 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 1997. -~ 1998 o. 0.06 o. 0. 0. 1998.
1999 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 1999.
2000 0. 0.06 o. o. 0. 2000.
2001 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 2001. -2002 o. 0.06 o. o. 0. 2002.
2003 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 2003.
2004 o. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 2004. -2005 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 2005.
2006 o. 0.06 o. o. o. 2006.
2007 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 2007.
2008 0. 0.06 0. -0. 0. 2008.
2009 0. 0.06 0. o. o. 2009.
2010 0. 0.06 0. 0. 0. 2010.
-
-
L-18
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
L.2. Startup Values for 1980 and 1981 -
ADMSD 1980 86.558 86.49
AEX 1980 0.4 NA
AGI 1980 4500. NA
AHG 1980 1. NA
ATD 1980 600. NA
ATI 1980 3500. NA
ATI.TT 1980 10. NA
ATT 1980 320. NA ,-BALCAP84 1980 o. 0.
BALDF 1980 0. 0.
BALGF 1980 1549.1 821.1
BALGFCP 1980 900. NA
BALGFP 1980 1549.1 821.1
BALPF 1980 483.2 1827.3
.~ BAL99 1980 2032.3 2648.4
BIU 1980 31.9 34.9
BL 1980 33. NA
CEA9N 1980 0.034 NA
CECMN 1980 0.012 NA
CECNN 1980 0.072 NA
CED9N 1980 0.12 NA
CEFIN 1980 0.015 NA
CEGAN 1980 0.197 NA
CEGFN 1980 0.207 NA
CEM9N 1980· 0.093 NA .-CEPUN 1980 0.018 NA
CEP9N 1980 0.021 NA
CES9N 1980 0.152 NA ,.,.. CET9N 1980 0.06 NA
CNNPF1 1980 2. 777 NA
CNNPF10 1980 8.158 NA .-CNNPF11 1980 7.036 NA
I CNNPF12 1980 5.893 NA
' CNNPF13 1980 4.956 NA
CNNPF14 1980 3.112 NA
CNNPF15 1980 4.368 NA
CNNPF2 1980 9.098 NA
CNNPF3 1980 10.982 NA ,.... CNNPF4 1980 11.165 NA
CNNPF5 1980 11.911 NA
CNNPF6 1980 14.403 NA
!""" CNNPF7 1980 16.919 NA
CNNPF8 1980 15.081 NA
CNNPF9 1980 11.626 NA
CNNPM1 1980 2.922 NA
·-· CNNPM10 1980 10.431 NA
L-19
r
-.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
CNNPMll 1980 8.546 NA
CNNPM12 1980 7.427 NA -CNNPM13 1980 5.826 NA
CNNPM14 1980 3.742 NA
CNNPM15 1980 4.433 NA -CNNPM2 1980 10.077 NA
CNNPM3 1980 11.548 NA
CNNPM4 1980 12.002 NA -· CNNPM5 1980 13.066 NA
CNNPM6 1980 13.719 NA
CNNPM7 1980 18.285 NA
CNNPM8 1980 17.566 NA ~
CNNPM9 1980 13.534 NA
COLA 1980 70. NA
DEBTP82 1980 o. 0. -DF.RSVP 1980 o. 0.
DPI 1980 4193.98 NA
DPIRES 1980 54.307 62.532 """l OPI8 1980 4512.8 NA
ELBD 1980 129. 151.2
ELED 1980 360.8 383.2
ELEDCP 1980 141.7 110.5 ~
ELED1 1980 129.7 111.8
ELNED1 1980 422.4 553.7
ELPERS 1980 383.8 407.5 -· EL99 1980 912.2 1088.1
EMAFISH 1980 0.221 NA
EMA9 1980 0.885 NA
EMCM 1980 4.383 NA -EMCN 1980 10.708 12.5
EMCNRT 1980 o. o.
EMCNX 1980 0. o. -,
EMCN1 1980 10.708 12.5
EMDR 1980 23.98 26.2
EMDRNT 1980 22.08 NA ~'
EMDTOUR 1980 1.9 NA
EMOW 1980 5.546 6.4
EM09 1980 29.526 32.7
EMFI 1980 7.751 8.7 """\!\
EMGA 1980 36.254 39.8
EMGF 1980 41.143 40.923
EMGL 1980 20.884 23.1 -EMGS 1980 15.37 16.7
EMMO 1980 2.66 2.7
EMM9 1980 14.205 13. -EMM91 1980 14.205 13.
EMPRO 1980 17.044 17.235
EMPROFIS 1980 7.269 NA
EMPR01 1980 9. 775 NA -
-
L-20
r~r.,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
f""'. MAP Documentation
May 1983
EMPU 1980 1.373 NA -EMRATE 1980 0.48 NA I
EMRATNl 1980 0.17 0.17
EMSB 1980 5.063 NA
r EMSP 1980 84.25 NA
EMS TOUR 1980 2.02 NA
EMS UP 1980 67.073 NA
EMS8NT 1980 21.713 NA -I EMS9 1980 29.796 NA
EMS91 1980 28.796 NA
EMTCU 1980 17.177 NA
r-EMTNT 1980 9.321 NA
EMTOUR 1980 4.92 NA
EHTTOUR 1980 1. NA
""""'
EHT9 1980 11.421 NA
EHT91 1980 10.321 NA
EHX 1980 6.684 8.6
EM96 1980 187.851 200.935 r EM97 1980 170.807 183.7
EM98 1980 194.13 207.023
EH99 1980 211.174 224.258 .-EXANSAV 1980 0. NA
EX CAP 1980 399.923 688.018
EXCAPFR 1980 0. 0. -EX CDS 1980 68.9 167.
EXCDSNT 1980 23.402 52.587
EXCDS4 1980 68.9 167.
EXCPS 1980 150.658 223.439
EXCPSFED 1980 43.7 107.5
EXCPSHY 1980 87.111 127.192
EXCPSM 1980 0. 0.
EXCPSNH 1980 63.547 96.247
EXDFCON 1980 0. 0.
EXDFWITH 1980 0. o.
r--EXDSS 1980 76.209 97.686
EXEDS 1980 474.3 592.
EXEDS4 1980 474.3 592.
EXGF 1980 1414.36 3668.2
,~""" EXGFBH 1980 1172.79 4349.57
EXGFCHY 1980 81.703 147.779
EXGFCNH 1980 167.562 316.8
!""" EXGGS 1980 117. 116.2
EXGGS4 1980 117. 116.2
·EXHES 1980. 89.3 125.6
EXHES4 1980 89.3 125.6 ,......
EXINREC 1980 71.996 153.333
EXJUS 1980 87.6 106.3
EXJUS4 1980 87.6 106.3
EXLIM 1980 0. 0.
L-21
'I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -,
May 1983
EXLIMOK 1980 0. 0.
EXNOPS 1980 476.132 1605.7
......,
EXNRS 1980 80.6 103.3
EXNRS4 1980 80.6 103.3
EXOPS 1980 1206.6 1581.6 -EXPFCON 1980 344.8 1285.
EXPPS 1980 28.9 33.2
EXPPS4 1980 28.9 33.2 -EXPRCDS 1980 7. 10.6
EXPREDS1 1980 13. 14.9
EXPRGGS 1980 53.6 49.3
EXPRHES 1980 26.7 29.9 -EXPRJUS 1980 58.4 69.7
EXPRNRS 1980 54. 69.
EXPRPPS 1980 17.7 20.2 ~
EXPRSSS 1980 36.6 42.7
EXPRTRS 1980 67.7 93.2
EXPRUA 1980 113.322 120.392 -EXPR99 1980 448.022 519.892
EXSAVS 1980 0. NA
EXSSS 1980 134.7 167.4
EXSSS4 1980 134.7 167.4 1'11'1
EXSUBS 1980 0. 772.
EXTRNS 1980 o. 0.
EXTRS 1980 125.4 169.8 -' EXTRS4 1980 125.4 169.8
EXUA 1980 167. 177.
EX99S 1980 1682.73 3187.3
FAGI 1980 4500. NA
FAG II 1980 3500. NA
GOBONDL 1980 827.1 1091.02
GODT 1980 631.723 701.178
GR 1980 15000. NA
GTR 1980 14000. NA
IM.BAL 1980 o. NA 1'1"1,,
IM.BALRV 1980 0. NA
LPTB 1980 12332. 13626.
LPTB1 1980 12332. 13626.
HI GIN 1980 12.451 NA """"'
MIGOUT 1980 -20.351 NA
MILPCT 1980 1. 1.
NATPF1 1980 0.904 NA
NATPF10 1980 1.393 NA
NATPF11 1980 1.304 NA
NATPF12 1980 1.082 NA
NATPF13 1980 0.865 NA
NATPF14 1980 0.685 NA
NATPF15 1980 1.433 NA
NATPF2 1980 2.764 NA ~
~'
L-22
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
NATPF3 1980 3.391 NA
~"""· NATPF4 1980 3.625 NA
NATPF5 1980 4.066 NA
NATPF6 1980 3.475 NA
NATPF7 1980 2.828 NA
NATPF8 1980 2.208 NA
NATPF9 1980 1. 772 NA
NATPMl 1980 0.945 NA
NATPMlO 1980 1.44 NA
NATPMll 1980 1.357 NA
NATPM12 1980 1.112 NA
NATPM13 1980 0.948 NA
NATPM14 1980 0.639 NA
NATPM15 1980 1.471 NA
NATPM2 1980 2.965 NA
NATPM3 1980 3.486 NA
NATPM4 1980 3. 778 NA
r· NATPM5 1980 4.226 NA
NATPM6 1980 3.486 NA
NATPM7 1980 2.865 NA
NATPM8 1980 2.223 NA .-NATPM9 1980 1.802 NA
NCCAP 1980 278. 350.
NCCI 1980 127. 143.
r-. NCPI 1980 19. 21.
P.DPINN 1980 11417.9 10000.
PDCON 1980 514.127 NA
PDEXOPS 1980 362.064 NA
PDRATIO 1980 1.296 1.266
PDRPI 1980 320.055 344.708
PDUSCPI 1980 247. 272.3
~-PI 1980 5090.2 NA
PIDIR 1980 541.387 661.376
PIOLI 1980 280.624 306.461
PI PROF 1980 25. 25.
PIPR01 1980 180. 180.
PIRADJ 1980 318.813 348.493
PISSC 1980 R 267e.5sl 310.433 ,-PIT RAN 1980 417.39 500.245
PITRAN1 1980 417.39 500.245
PI3 1980 5090.2 NA
r"" PIS 1980 5409.02 NA
POP 1980 403.603 NA
POPC 1980 378.7 NA
POPGER 1980 12. NA
POPM 1980 23.3 23.3
POP MIG 1980 -7.9 NA
POPNE 1980 70.855 NA
!""" POPSKUL 1980 106.642 NA
L-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation '~
May 1983
PR.BALCP 1980 1239.14 1300. -PR.DPINN 1980 3233.7 4400.
PR.DPIUS 1980 3239.68 3235.03
PR.PI 1980 3956.11 NA
PR.PI3 1980 3956.11 NA
R.BALCAP 1980 500. 550.
R.DPI 1980 1310.39 NA
R.DPI8N 1980 1410.01 NA -R.DPI8X 1980 0. NA
R.WR97 1980 7239.51 NA
RLMC 1980 267.6 331.9 -. RLOT 1980 46.9 52.3
RLPT1 1980 191. 199.9
RLTCS 1980 0. NA
RLTCS4 1980 0. NA -· RLTEB 1980 7.512 -85.415
RLTEB4 1980 7.512 -85.415
RLTEF4 1980 162.679 275.301 ... \
RLTEO 1980 43.653 62.889
RLTE04 1980 43.653 62.889
RLTET 1980 15.253 16.622
RLTET4 1980 15.253 -16.622
RLTE99 1980 231.1 271.4
RLTE994 1980 231.1 271.4
RLTF 1980 52.5 71.1
RLTMA 1980 11.4 56.5
RLTMA4 1980 11.4 56.5
RLTMS 1980 20.202 50.887 -. RLTRS 1980 26.9 52.601
RLTRS4 1980 26.9 52.601
RLTT9 1980 18.598 61.812
RLTT94 1980 18.598 61.812 11ft,
RLTVS4 1980 2.522 1.093
RLT99 1980 296.8 436.7
RMIS 1980 22.1 22.1 ~
RMISRES 1980 18.034 17.942
ROFAS 1980 10.661 NA
ROFERS 1980 20.98 NA -ROFOS 1980 8.138 NA \
RSFDN 1980 223.534 200.687
RSFFS 1980 4.93 5.122
RSFS1 1980 11.993 12.015
RSGF 1980 2742.77 3936.83
RSGFBM 1980 2501.2 3718.2
RSIAS 1980 26.116 29.451 ~ RTAS 1980 7.366 8.3
RTBS2 1980 10. NA
RTCIS 1980 4.283 1.7 -RTCS1 1980 17.864 34.8
~
L-24
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
RTIS 1980 100.479 o.
RTISC 1980 0. 0.
RTISCA1 1980 0.44 NA
RTISCA2 1980 0.44 NA
RTISCP 1980 71.147 49.813
RTISLOS 1980 150. 150.
RTMF 1980 26.175 23.2
{"""'
RTOTS 1980 16.9 21.7
RTPIF 1980 770.765 893.085
RTSS 1980 2.556 0.
RTVS 1980 12.418 11.8
R99S 1980 2971.69 4001.1
TPTV 1980 260. NA
VAEX 1980 1000. 1000.
r"" WEALTH 1980 4001.03 NA
WEUS 1980 234.9 254.7
WRA9 1980 18914.1 NA
WRCM 1980 34588.6 NA .-WRCN 1980 39907. NA
WRCNNP 1980 39907. NA
WRCNP 1980 0. o. -WRDR 1980 13824.5 NA ' WRDW 1980 25669.7 NA
WRD9 1980 16049.4 NA
r WRFI 1980 18820. NA
WRGA 1980 24545.1 NA
WRGC 1980 21270.7 NA
WRGF 1980 17046.7 NA
P"" WRGL 1980 22192.5 NA
WRGH 1980 13819.4 15220.8
WRGS 1980 27741.7 NA ,.,., WRM91 1980 21833.1 NA
WRPU 1980 33253.4 NA
WRP9 1980 45591.5 NA
!""' WRSB 1980 18904.2 NA
! WRSNB 1980 16464.3 NA
WRS9 1980 16878.9 NA
WRT9 1980 27009.7 NA
WR98 1980 22047. NA
WSCN 1980 427.324 NA
WSCNP 1980 0. o.
WSGA 1980 889.859 NA
WSGC 1980 379.045 NA
WSGL 1980 463.469 NA
WSGH 1980 322.31 354.995
WSGS 1980 426.39 NA
WSGSFY 1980 398.858 NA
WS97 1980 3957.67 NA
~"""'· WS98 1980 4279.98 NA
L-25 -'
,...,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
XXA9 1980 75.1 77.6
XXCM 1980 204.5 NA """" XXCN 1980 120.7 141.
XXCN1 1980 120.7 141.
XXCN8 1980 89.338 NA ..,
XXDR 1980 190.5 206.3
XXDRNT 1980 219.932 NA
XXDW 1980 103.6 115.5 ~' XXD9 1980 294.1 321.8
XXFI 1980 354.5 357.1
XXGA 1980 330. NA
XXGF 1980 500. NA """"·
XXM91 1980 240. NA
XXPU 1980 55.1 NA
XXP9 1980 600. NA ~:
XXSB 1980 53.9 NA
XXS8NT 1980 200.557 NA
XXS9 1980 282.6 NA ~ XXTNT 1980 183.792 NA
XXT9 1980 225.2 NA
XXVHY 1980 91.595 NA
XXVNHY 1980 69.644 NA -XX98 1980 2500. NA
~
-
SOURCE: dset A83.2.
-
-
L-26
-
r
M.l
M.2
APPENDIX M
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
ISER MAP REGIONALIZATION MODEL:
INPUT VARIABLES
Exogenous and Policy Variables
Startup Values for 1980 and 1981
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.fl'<"·"'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
"""' HAP Documentation I
May 1983
.-M.l. Exogenous and Policy Variables
1981 2.606 18.657 5.08 0.457 1.846 0.96
1982 2.205 21.361 6.089 0.436 1. 528 0.818
1983 2.64 22.376 7.472 0.491 1.838 0.96
1984 2.847 22.73 6.73 0.486 1.838 0.964
1985 3.187 24.16 8.027 0. 501 1.851 1.059
1986 3.81 25.242 8.474 0. 512 1.862 1.174
1987 4.051 26.035 9.144 o. 522 1.87 1. 273
,...... 1988 4.195 25.991 9.534 0.516 1.869 1.263
1989 4.338 25.941 10.012 0.511 1.868 1.229
1990 3.61 26.723 12.462 0.519 1.877 1.237
1991 3.418 26.792 10.206 0. 516 1.875 1.24
"""" 1992 7.175 28.368 12.737 0.536 1.895 1.255
1993 7.832 30.35 10.178 0.567 1.914 1.265
1994 5.24 31.68 11.237 0.585 1.925 1.272
!"""' 1995 5.804 31.715 10.057 0.58 1.925 1.277
1996 6.086 30.712 9.914 0.559 1.912 1. 275
1997 6.225 30.024 10.05 o. 542 1.904 1. 276
1998 6.202 30.3 9.644 0.542 1.905 1.279
1999 6.127 30.486 9.517 0.541 1.904 1.282
2000 5.96 30.728 9. 506 0.54 1.904 1. 262
2001 5.633 30.971 9.525 o. 54 1.904 1. 219
f"'"' 2002 5.524 31.265 9.527 0.541 1.906 1.2
2003 5.529 31.635 9.689 0. 544 1.909 1.182
2004 5.536 32.04 9.703 0.546 1.912 1.164
2005 5.543 32.483 9. 719 0. 549 1.916 1.147
2006 5.551 32.955 9.735 0.553 1.92 1.084
2007 5.56 33.454 9.674 0.556 1.925 1.09
2008 5.57 33.984 9.666 0.561 1.93 1.096
2009 5.579 34.514 9.431 0.565 1.935 1.102
2010 5.59 35.091 9.451 0.57 1.941 1.109
8.09 8.11 8.12 8.14 B.15 B.16
r-1981 4.907 11.622 3.968 0.152 4.028 0.016
1982 5.62 11.755 3.94 0.158 3.527 0.017
1983 5.781 13.112 4.225 0.169 4.439 0.017
.-. 1984 5.791 13.584 4.316 0.277 4.3 0.017
1985 6.128 14.265 4.808 0.32 4.163 0.018
1986 6.393 14.734 4.991 0.38 4.212 0.019
1987 6.627 15.371 4.651 0.329 4.554 0.019
1988 6.631 15.621 4.849 0.604 4.673 0.019
1989 6.634 15.785 5.367 0.602 4.371 0.019
1990 6.871 16.121 5.594 0.606 4.331 0.02
1991 6.911 16.223 5.704 0.605 4.345 0.02
1992 7.37 16.743 5.807 0.615 4.425 0.021
II"!!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation .,
May 1983
1993 7.955 17.212 5.457 0.627 4.496 0.021 ..... \
1994 8.345 17.558 5.368 0.635 4.548 0.021
1995 8.352 17.687 5.529 0.633 4.567 0.022
1996 8.077 17.565 5.441 0.625 4.545 0.022
1997 7.894 17.227 5.391 0.618 4.539 0.022
1998 7.991 17.36 5.415 0.618 4.558 0.022
1999 8.06 17.465 5.43 0.617 4.574 0.022
2000 8.156 17.591 5.453 0.617 4.591 0.022 -· 2001 8.251 17.732 5.482 0.617 4.561 0.022
2002 8.361 17.89 5.516 0.618 4.404 0.022
2003 8.493 18.072 5.56 0.619 4.432 0.022
2004 8.636 18.264 5.606 0.62 4.46 0.023
2005 8.79 18.467 5.659 0.622 4.49 0.023
2006 8.953 18.679 5. 713 0.623 4.522 0.023
2007 9.126 18.899 5. 771 0.625 4.555 0.023 -2008 9.308 19.128 5.832 0.627 4.589 0.024
2009 9.493 19.357 5.895 0.629 4.624 0.024
2010 9.69 19.599 5.961 0.632 4.661 0.024 -
8.17 8.18 8.21 B.24 8.25 8.26
1981 0.683 0.335 0.285 0.161 0.028 1.123
1982 0. 77 0.348 ·0.297 0.173 0.03 1.281
1983 0.893 0.365 0.318 0.177 0.031 1.252
""""' 1984 0.896 0.435 0.32 0.177 0.031 1.295
1985 0.84 0.551 0.335 0.183 0.032 1.355
1986 0.876 0.561 0.348 0.188 0.034 1.411
1987. 0.905 0.569 0.357 0.192 0.034 1.465
1988 0.906 0. 502 0.359 0.192 0.035 1.507
1989 0.908 0.4 0.363 0.191 0.035 1. 549
1990 0.938 0.409 0.373 0.195 0.036 1.603 -1991 0.942 0.411 0.374 0.195 0.036 1.646
1992 1.002 0.429 0.396 0.204 0.038 1. 712
1993 1.069 0.445 0.415 0.213 0.039 1.783 -1994 1.113 0.457 0.428 0.218 0.04 1.845
1995 1.117 0.458 0.431 0.218 0.041 1.887
1996 1.082 0.449 0.421 0.212 0.04 1.915 -1997 1.06 0.445 0.416 0.209 -o. 04 1.946
1998 1.07 0.447 0.418 0.209 0.04 1.992
1999 1.074 0.449 0.42 0.208 0.04 2.036
2000 1.082 0.451 0.423 0.208 0.04 2.081 --2001 1.092 0.455 0.426 0.209 0.04 2.127
2002 1.104 0.458 0.429 0.209 0.04 2.173
2003 1.119 0.463 0.434 0.211 0.041 2.221 --2004 1.135 0.468 0.44 0.212 0.041 2.269
2005 1.153. 0.474 0.446 0.214 0.042 2.318
2006 1.172 0.48 0.452 0.216 0.043 2.368 -2007 1.192 0.487 0.46 0.218 0.043 2.417
-
M-2
!""'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
2008 1.213 0.494 0.467 0.221 0.044 2.467
2009 1. 234 0.5 0.474 0.223 0.045 2.517
2010 1. 256 0. 508 0.482 0.226 0.045 2.568
8.27 8.29 BETA 801 802 804
,-. 1981 0.244 0.916 0.363 2.282 4.033 4.687
1982 0.2 0.86 0.366 1.833 4.328 5.595
1983 0.242 0.89 0.37 2.254 4.826 6.973
r"'· 1984 0.242 0.888 0.378 2.462 5.227 6.249
1985 0.243 0.877 0.378 2. 777 5.537 7.509
1986 0.244 0.887 0.379 3.38 5.747 7.932
1987 0.245 0.897 0.378 3.606 5.794 8. 577 !""" 1988 0.245 0.894 0.38 3.751 5.839 8.988
1989 0.245 0.891 0.383 3.896 5.885 9.487
1990 0.246 0.899 0.385 3.153 5.935 11.918
1991 0.245 0.899 0.39 2.963 5.99 9.671
1992 0.248 0.918 0.39 6.683 6.047 12.157
1993 0.25 0.946 0.396 7.305 6.106 9.509
!""' 1994 0.252 0.963 0.401 4.691 6.21 10.516
1995 0.251 0.96 0.405 5.256 6.308 9.353
1996 0.25 0.942 0.411 5.562 6.399 9.273
1997 0.248 0.929 0.41 5. 716 6.495 9.463
1998 0.248 0.931 0.412 5.692 6.6 9.058
1999 0.248 0.931 0.416 5.619 6.724 8.936
2000 0.248 0.932 0.42 5.452 6.83 8.928
2001 0.248 0.934 0.425 5.124 6.877 8.947
2002 0.248 0.937 0.43 5.012 6.924 8.948
2003 0.249 0.94 0.435 5.012 6. 971 9.107
!"""' 2004 0.249 0.944 0.44 5.012 7.021 9.117
2005 0.249 0.949 0.445 5.013 7.07 9.127
2006 0.25 0.954 0.451 5.013 7.119 9.137
2007 0.25 0.95,9 0.456 5.013 7.168 9.069 ,_.
2008 0.251 0.965 0.462 5.013 7.219 9.053 1
2009 0.251 0.971 0.467 5.013 7.269 8.81
2010 0.252 0.977 0.473 5.014 7.322 8.821
!"""
'
805 806 808 809 Bll 812
!"""'
1981 0.282 1.671 0.824 0.349 6.429 2.085
1982 0.225 1.327 0.668 0.35 5.929 1.818
1983 0.275 1.63 0.802 0.359 7.005 2.033
r-1984 0.275 1.63 0.803 0.369 7.343 2.102
1985 0.275 1.63 0.887 0.378 7.629 2.472
1986 0.275 1.63 0.994 0.387 7.76 2.556
1987 0.275 1.63 1.086 0.398 8.113 2.133
1988 0.275 1.63 1.073 0.41 8.235 2.307
~-
M-3 ,..,.
r
'I
1111"1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
1989 0.276 1.63 1.036 0.423 8.272 2.803
1990 0.276 1.63 1.036 0.437 8.309 2.938
1991 0.276 1.63 1.037 0.452 8.3 3.022
1992 0.276 1.63 1.037 0.47 8.292 2.957
1993 0.276 1.63 1.038 0.489 8.283 2.431 -1994 0.276 1.63 1.039 o. 508 8.275 2.216
1995 0.276 1.63 1.039 o. 53 8.266 2.364
1996 0.276 1.63 1.04 0.554 8.258 2.351 ,..-,
1997 0.276 1.63 1.04 o. 58 7.935 2.337
1998 0.276 1.63 1.04.1 0.609 7.927 2.324
1999 0.276 1.63 1.042 0.64 7.919 2.312
2000 0.276 1.63 1.019 0.677 7.911 2.3 ~
2001 0.276 1.63 0.974 0.696 7.903 2.289
2002 0.276 1.63 0.952 0. 716 7.896 2.277
2003 0.276 1.63 0.929 0.736 7.888 2.266
2004 0.276 1.63 0.907 0.759 7.88 2.255
2005 0.276 1.63 0.885 0.781 7.873 2.246
2006 0.276 1.63 0.816 0.805 7.866 2.235
2007 0.276 1.63 0.817 0.83 7.858 2.225
2008 0.276 1.63 0.818 0.857 7.851 2.215
2009 0.277 1.63 0.818 0.886 7.844 2.207
2010 0.277 1.63 0.819 0.914 7.837 2.197 """
814 815 816 817 818 821 ~).
1981 0.071 3.24 0.008 0.117 0.154 0.089
1982 0.062 2.642 0.008 0.118 0.144 0.075
1983 0.07 3. 514 0.008 0.219 0.155 0.087 -
1984 0.18 3.357 0.008 0.22 0.224 0.087
1985 0.216 3.162 0.008 0.121 0.329 0.087
1986 0.271 3.162 0.008 0.123 0.33 0.087
1987 0.216 3.463 0.008 0.124 0.331 0.087
1988 0.493 3.565 0.008 0.125 0.264 0.088
1989 0.493 3.247 0.009 0.126 0.161 0.09 ·"""~·
1990 0.493 3.163 0.009 0.128 0.162 0.09
1991 0.493 3.163 0.009 0.13 0.163 0.09
1992 0.493 3.163 0.009 0.131 0.164 0.09
1993 0.493 3.163 0.009 0.132 0.166 0.09 -
19.94 0.493 3.163 0.009 0.133 0.167 0.091
1995 0.493 3.164 0.009 0.135 0.168 0.091
1996 0.493 3.164 0.009 0.136 0.169 0.091 -· 1997 0.493 3.164 0.009 0.137 0.17 0.091
1998 0.493 3.164 0.009 0.139 0.171 0.091
1999 0.493 3.165 0.009 0.14 0.172 0.093
2000 0.493 3.165 0.009 0.141 0.174 0.093
2001 0.493 3.115 0.009 0.143 0.175 0.093
2002 0.493 2.935 0.009 0.144 0.176 0.093
2003 0.493 2.936 0.009 0.146 0.177 0.094 -
M-4
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
2004 0.493 2.936 0.009 0.147 0.178 0.094
2005 0.493 2.937 0.009 0.148 0.18 0.094
2006 0.493 2.937 0.009 0.15 0.181 0.094
2007 0.493 2.938 0.009 0.151 0.182 0.095
2008 0.494 2.938 0.009 0.153 0.183 0.096
2009 0.494 2.939 0.01 0.154 0.185 0.096
2010 0.494 2.94 0.01 0.155 0.186 0.096
B24 . B25 826 B27 B29 G.01
!""' 1981 0.079 0.01 0.374 0.226 0.732 3.293
1982 0.079 0.01 0.453 0.179 0.643 3.348
1983 0.079 0.01 0.373 0.22 0.668 3.348 r--1984 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.669 3.354
1985 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.645 3.382
1986 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.646 3.405
~ 1987 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.647 3.419
1988 0.079 0.011 0.373 0.22 0.648 3.43
1989 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.649 3.441
r 1990 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.65 3.454
1991 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.651 3.464
1992 0.079 0.011 0.374 0.22 0.652 3.485
1993 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.653 3.493
1994 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.654 3,502
1995 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.655 3. 52 .
1996 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.656 3.49 ,_ 1997 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.657 3. 513
1998 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.658 3.512
1999 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.659 3.499
2000 0.079 0.012 0.374 0.22 0.66 3.487 r 2001 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.661 3.479
2002 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.663 3.473
2003 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.664 3.468
2004 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.665 3.465
2005 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.666 3.463
2006 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.667 3.463
2007 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.668 3.463
2008 0.079 0.013 0.374 0.22 0.669 3.464
2009 0.079 0.014 0.375 0.22 0.67 3.465
2010 0.079 0.014 0.375 0.22 0.672 3.467
G.02 G.04 G.OS G.06 G.08 G.09
,~
1981 35.071 1.632 1.444 1. 257 0.367 13.25
1982 36.632 1. 777 1. 556 1.332 0.396 13.841
1983 36.559 1. 766 1. 549 1.327 0.393 13.805
1984 36.682 1. 775 1.556 1.332 0.395 13.846
r
M-5 ,....,
'
-------
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
1985 37.518 1.855 1.618 1. 373 0.411 14.169
1986 38.189 1.919 1. 667 1.406 0.424 14.427
1987 38.586 1.955 1.695 1.425 0.431 14.576
1988 38.865 1.98 1. 714 1.438 0.436 14.678
1989 39.139 2.003 1. 733 1.45 0.441 14.779
1990 39.479 2.034 1. 757 1.466 0.447 14.905
1991 39.733 2.056 1. 774 1.478 0.451 14.998
1992 40.356 2.115 1.82 1. 508 0.463 15.236 ~'
1993 40.529 2.128 1.831 1. 515 0.466 15.297
1994 40.755 2.147 1.846 1. 525 0.47 15.378
1995 41.264 2.194 1.883 1. 55 0.479 15.5 72
1996 40.249 2.088 1.805 1.496 0.458 15.162
1997 40.92 2.152 1.854 1.529 0.47 15.419
1998 40.802 2.136 1.843 1.521 0.467 15.364
1999 40.316 2.083 1.805 1.494 0.456 15.163 -· 2000 39.883 2.035 1.77 1.47 0.447 14.983
2001 39.547 1.998 1.743 1.452 0.439 14.842
2002 39.279 1.967 1. 721 1.436 0.433 14.727 -2003 39.062 1.941 1.703 1.423 0.427 14.633
2004 38.895 1.92 1.689 1.413 0.423 14.558
2005 38.77 1.903 1.677 1.405 0.42 14.5 -, 2006 38.677 1.89 1.669 1.398 0.417 14.455
2007 38.611 1.879 1.662 1.393 0.414 14.42
2008 38.57 1.871 1. 657 1.389 0.413 14.395
2009 38.543 1.864 1.653 1.386 0.411 14.376 ·""'""
2010 38.534 1.859 1.651 1.384 0.41 14.363
-.,
G.11 G.12 G.14 G.15 G.16 G.17
1981 11.841 1.612 0.996 2.133 0.463 1.454 ~ 1982 12.782 1. 762 1.076 2.236 0.499 1. 58
1983 12.716 1. 75 1.07 2.229 0.496 1. 569
1984 12.776 1. 758 1.076 2.236 0.499 1. 576
1985 13.295 1.843 1.119 2.293 o. 518 1. 647 ~
1986 13.708 1.909 1.154 2.338 0. 534 1. 703
1987 13.945 1.947 1.174 2.364 0.543 1. 734
1988 14.105 1.972 1.188 2.382 0.549 1.755 """\
1989 14.261 1.996 1.201 2.399 0.555 1. 775
1990 14.461 2.028 1.218 2.421 o. 562 1.801
1991 14.604 2.05 1.23 2.437 0. 568 1.82
1992 14.986 2.111 1.263 2.479 o. 582 1.871
1993 15.077 2.125 1.271 2.489 0. 585 1.883
1994 15.202 2.144 1. 281 2.503 0. 59 1.899
1995 15.51 2.194 1.307 2.536 0.602 1.94 ,..,.~
1996 14.835 2.08 1.251 2.463 0.576 1.846
1997 15.247 2.147 1.286 2. 508 0. 592 1.901
1998 15.15 2.129 1.278 2.497 0.588 1.887
1999 14.815 2.072 1.25 2.461 0.575 1.839
-
K-6
·"'""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
F-· MAP Documentation
May 1983
,.-2000 14.515 2.021 1. 225 2.428 0. 564 1. 796
2001 14.277 1.98 1.205 2.402 0.554 1. 762
2002 14.083 1.946 1.189 2.381 0.547 1. 734
2003 13.922 1.918 1.176 2.364 0.541 1. 711 r-m 2004 13.792 1.895 1.166 2.349 0.536 1.692
2005 13.69 1.877 1.157 2.338 0.532 1.676
2006 13.608 1.861 1.151 2.33 0.529 1.664 .-2007 13.544 1.849 1.146 2.323 0.526 1.654
2008 13.496 1.84 1.142 2.317 0. 524 1.646
2009 13.456 1.831 1.139 2.313 0.523 1.639
/""" 2010 13 .. 428 1.825 1.137 2.31 0.521 1.634
G.l8 G.21 G.24 G.25 G.26 G.27 !"""'
1981 1.054 0.419 1.673 0.323 1.008 0.637
1982 1.142 0.455 1. 73 0.351 1.103 0.69
1983 1.136 0.452 1. 727 0.348 1.095 0.686
1984 1.141 0.454 1. 731 0.35 1.1 0.689
1985 1.191 0.474 1. 762 0.365 1.154 0. 718
r-1986 1. 23 0.49 1. 786 0.377 1.196 0. 742
1987 1.252 0.499 1.8 0.384 1. 22 o. 755
1988 1. 267 0.505 1.81 0.389 1.236 0. 764
1989 1.281 0.511 1.82 0.393 1. 251 0. 772 ,..,... 1990 1.3 0.518 1.832 0.399 1.271 0. 784
1991 1.314 0.524 1.841 0.403 1.285 0. 792
1992 1.35 0. 538 1.864 0.414 1.324 0.813
1993 1.358 0. 542 1.87 0.417 1.332 0.818
1994 1. 37 0. 546 1.878 0.42 1.344 0.825
1995 1.399 0.558 1.897 0.429 1. 375 0.842
1996 1.334 0. 532 1.86 0.409 1.303 0.804
1997 1.373 0. 548 L884 0.421 1.346 0.827
1998 1.364 0. 544 1.88 0.418 1.334 0.822
1999 1.332 0.531 1.862 0.408 1.298 0.803
{"""'\ 2000 1.303 0. 519 1.846 0.399 1.265 0.787
2001 1. 28 o. 51 1.834 0.391 1.239 0. 773
2002 1.261 o. 502 1.824 0.385 1.218 0. 762
f""": 2003 1.245 0.496 1.816 0.38 1.2 0.753
2004 1.233 0.491 1.81 0.376 1.185 0. 746
2005 1.223 0.487 1.805 0.373 1.173 0.74
2006 1.215 0.484 1.802 0.37 1.163 0. 736
2007 1.208 0.481 1. 799 0.368 1.156 0. 732
2008 1.203 0.479 1. 797 0.367 1.149 0. 73
2009 1.199 0.477 1. 796 0.365 1.144 0. 727
(": 2010 1.196 0.476 1. 796 0.364 1.14 0.726
M-7
!""
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation """"' May 1983,
G.29 GOl G02 G04 G05 G06
1981 1.258 2.866 21.439 0.259 0.417 0.557
1982 1.323 2.878 21.602 0.263 0.424 0.56
1983 1.319 2.881 21.651 0.265 0.426 0.561 """" 1984 1.324 2.885 21.7 0.266 0.428 o. 562
1985 1.359 2.888 21.749 0.267 0.43 0.563
1986 1.387 2.892 21.798 0.268 0.432 0.564 ~'
1987 1.404 2.895 21.848 0.27 0.434 0.565
1988 1. 415 2.899 21.898 0.271 0.436 0. 566
1989 1.426 2.903 21.948 0.272 0.438 0.567
1990 1.44 2.906 21.998 0.273 0.441 0. 568
1991 1. 45 2.91 22.049 0.275 0.443 o. 569
1992 1.476 2.914 22.1 0.276 0.445 0.57
1993 1.483 2.917 22.151 0.277 0.447 o. 571
1994 1.492 2.921 22.203 0.279 0.449 0.572
1995 1.513 2.925 22.254 0.28 0.451 0.573
1996 1.468 2.928 22.306 0.281 0.454 0.574 """· 1997 1.496 2.932 22.358 0.283 0.456 0.575
1998 1.49 2.936 22.411 0.284 0.458 0. 576
1999 1.468 2.94 22.464 0.285 0.46 0. 577
2000 1.449 2.944 22.517 0.287 0.462 0.578 -,,
2001 1.433 2.947 22.57 0.288 0.465 0. 579
2002 1.421 2.951 22.623 0.289 0.467 0. 58
2003 1.41 2.955 22.677 0.291 0.469 0.581 """"' 2004 1.402 2.959 22.731 0.292 0.471 0. 582
2005 1.396 2.963 22.786 0.293 0.474 0.583
2006 1.391 2.967 22.84 0.295 0.476 0. 584 -2007 1.387 2.971 22.895 0.296 0.478 0. 585
2008 1.384 2.975 22.95 0.298 0.481 0. 587
2009 1.382 2.979 23.006 0.299 0.483 0.588
2010 1.381 2.983 23.061 0.3 0.485 0. 589 """J,
GOB G09 Gll G12 G14 G15 ~·
1981 0.089 7.855 3.048 0.158 0.259 1.171
1982 0.089 7.893 3.088 0.16 0.263 1.176
1983 0.09 7.905 3.1 0.16 0.265 1.177
1984 0.09 7.917 3.112 0.161 0.266 1.178
1985 0.09 7.928 3.124 0.161 0.267 1.18
1986 0.09 7.94 3.136 0.162 0.268 1.181
1987 0.09 7.952 3.149 0.162 0.27 1.183
1988 0.091 7.964 3.161 0.163 0. 271 1.184
1989 0.091 7.976 3.173 0.163 0.272 1.186 ~.
1990 0.091 7.988 3.186 0.164 0.273 1.187
1991 0.091 8. 3.198 0.165 0.275 1.189
1992 0.091 8.012 3.211 0.165 0.276 1.19 ~. 1993 0.091 8.024 3.223 0.166 0. 277 1.192
M-8
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ......
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"""" 1994 0.092 8.036 3.236 0.166 0.279 1.193
1995 0.092 8.048 3.249 0.167 0.28 1.195
1996 0.092 8.061 3.262 0.167 0.281 1.196
1997 0.092 8.073 3.274 0.168. 0.283 1.198
1998 0.092 8.086 3.287 0.168 0.284 1.199
1999 0.093 8.098 3.3 0.169 0.285 1.201
2000 0.093 8.111 3.313 0.17 0.287 1.202
,""""' 2001 0.093 8.123 3.327 0.17 0.288 1.204
2002 0.093 8.136 3.34 0.171 0.289 1.205
2003 0.093 8.149 3.353 0.171 0.291 1.207
r"' 2004 0.094 8.162 3.366 0.172 0.292 1.209
2005 0.094 8.175 3.38 0.172 0.293 1. 21
2006 0.094 8.188 3.393 0.173 0.295 1.212
2007 0.094 8.201 3.407 0.174 0.296 1.213
2008 0.094 8.214 3.42 0.174 0.298 1.215
2009 0.095 8.227 3.434 0.175 0.299 1. 217
2010 0.095 8.24 3.448 0.175 0.3 1.218
G16 G17 G18 G21 G24 G25
1981 0.129 0.242 0.216 0.081 1.178 0.061
1982 0.131 0.244 0.219 0.082 1.184 0.062
1983 0.131 0.244 0.22 0.082 1.185 0.062 ,-. 1984 0.131 0.245 0.221 0.083 1.187 0.062
1985 0.132 0.245 0.222 0.083 1.189 0.063
1986 0.132 0.246 0.223 0.083 1.19 0.063
(""" 1987 0.133 0.246 0.224 0.084 1.192 0.063
1988 0.133 0.247 0.225 0.084 1.194 0.063
1989 0.133 0.247 0.225 0.084 1.196 0.063
1990 0.134 0.248 0.226 0.085 1.197 0.063
1991 0.134 0.248 0.227 0.085 1.199 0.064
1992 0.135 0.249 0.228 0.085 1.201 0.064
1993 0.135 0.249 0.229 0.086 1.203 0.064
1994 0.135 0.25 0.23 0.086 1.204 0.064
1995 0.136 0.25 0.231 0.087 1.206 0.064
1996 0.136 0.251 0.232 0.087 . 1. 208 0.064
/"""' 1997 0.137 0.251 0.233 0.087 1.21 0.065
1998 0.137 0.252 0.234 0.088 1.211 0.065
1999 0.137 0.252 0.235 0.088 1.213 0.065
2000 0.138 0.253 0.236 0.088 1.215 0.065 r 2001 0.138 0.253 0.237 0.089 1.217 0.065
2002 0.139 0.254 0.238 0.089 1.219 0.066
2003 0.139 0.254 0.239 0.09 1.221 0.066
2004 0.14 0.255 0.24 0.09 1.223 0.066
2005 0.14 0.255 0.241 0.09 1.224 0.066
2006 0.14 0.256 0.242 0.091 1.226 0.066
,.,.., 2007 0.141 0.256 0.243 0.091 1. 228 0.067
M-9
"'ll'1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ~.
May 1983
2008 0.141 0.257 0.244 0.091 1. 23 0.067 -· 2009 0.142 0.258 0.245 0.092 1.232 0.067
2010 0.142 0.258 0.246 0.092 1.234 0.067
"""" G26 G27 G29 HH POP
1981 0.086 0.146 0.666 138.788 419.589 -,
1982 0.087 0.148 0.671 145.453 437.175
1983 0.087 0.149 0.672 153.141 457.836
1984 0.087 0.15 0.673 159.154 473.752 -, 1985 0.087 0.15 0.674 165.301 490.154
1986 0.088 0.151 0.676 171.204 505.917
1987 0.088 0.152 0.677 175.647 517.508
1988 0.088 0.152 0.678 179.336 526.964 -""'!\
1989 0.088 0.153 0.68 183.162 536.859
1990 0.089 0.154 0.681 188.149 550.151
1991 0.089 0.154 0.682 191.007 557.251
1992 0.089 0.155 0.684 199.022 579.38
1993 0.089 0.156 0.685 204.818 594.991
1994 0.089 0.157 0.686 209.452 607.199
1995 0.09 0.157 0.688 213.596 617.971 -
1996 0.09 0.158 0.689 215.035 620.838
1997 0.09 0.159 0.691 217.518 626.791
1998 0.09 0.159 0.692 219.915 632.498 ,..,.,"
1999 0.091 0.16 0.693 221.834 636.808
2000 0.091 0.161 0.695 223.854 641.432
2001 0.091 0.162 0.696 225.958 646.314 -2002 0.091 0.162 0.698 228.285 651.863
2003 0.092 0.163 0.699 230.976 658.498
2004 0.092 0.164 0.7 233.864 665.723
2005 0.092 0.165 0. 702 236.948 673.537 -2006 0.092 0.165 0.703 240.217 681.909
2007 0.093 0.166 0. 705 243.684 690.874
2008 0.093 0.167 o. 706 247.373 700.507 ~
2009 0.093 0.168 o. 708 251.154 710.42
2010 0.093 0.168 0 .. 709 255.211 721.159
~\
-
H-10
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
F""" MAP Documentation
May 1983
"""" M. 2. Startup Value for 1980 and 1981
M.01 1980 0. NA
M.02 1980 0.001 NA
M.03 1980 0. NA
M.04 1980 0. NA
M.OS 1980 o. NA
M.06 1980 0. NA
M.07 1980 0. NA ,_ M.08 1980 0. NA
M.09 1980 0. NA
M.10 1980 0. NA
M.ll 1980 0. NA !"""" M.12 1980 0. NA
M.13 1980 0. NA
M.14 1980 0. NA
l'""' M.15 1980 0. NA
M.16 1980 0. NA
M.17 1980 0. NA
!""" M.18 1980 0. NA
M.19 1980 0. NA
M.20 1980 0. NA
M.21 1980 0. NA ,.....,
M. 22 1980 0. NA
M. 23 1980 0. NA
M.24 1980 0. NA
r-M. 25 1980 0. NA
M.26 1980 0. NA
K.27 1980 0. NA
K. 28 1980 0. NA
K.29 1980 0. NA
PCEN.06 1980 1. 1.
SOURCE: dset A83.CD.
K-11 r
-
·-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX N
ISER MAP MODEL OUTPUT FOR HARZA-EBASCO
SUSITNA JOINT VENTURE
N.l. 2~ Annual Decline in Oil Price
N.2. 1~ Annual Decline in Oil Price
N.3. Constant Petroleum Price
N.4. 2~ Annual Increase in Oil Price
N.S. Sherman Clark Associates--No Supply Disruption Case
N.6. Sherman Clark Associates--Base Case
N.7. Alaska Department of Revenue--Average Price
N.S. Alaska Department of Revenue--50th Percentile
N.9. Alaska Department of Revenue--30th Percentile
N.lO. Data Resources Institute--June Oil Price Forecast
N .11. Selected Historical Data Series . . . .
N-3
N-9
N-15
N-21
N-27
N-33
N-37
N-45
N-51
N-57
N-63
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -
-',
-
r
,..-.
r
APPENDIX N
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
MS;Y 1983
ISER MAP MODEL OUTPUT FOR HARZA-EBASCO
SUSITNA JOINT VENTURE
The first six tables in this appendix present selected output
from six simulations using the MAP state and regionalization
models. The final table presents historical data for the same
variables for purposes of comparison. Each table is divided into
six parts as follows:
Part Content
A State petroleum revenue assumptions
B Selected state expenditure variables
c Model output used as input to end use (RED) model: employment
D Model output used as input to end use (RED) model: population
E Model output used as input to end use (RED) model: households
F Model output used as input to end use (RED) model: households
Each simulation uses the same models, parameters, input
variables, and economic and fiscal scenarios except as indicated
below. The models, parameters, and input variables are presented
elsewhere in this technical documentation report. The economic and
fiscal scenarios are also described in a separate appendix in the
technical documentation report.
The economic scenario is a "most likely" case.
The fiscal scenario assumes that state government will spend
according to the guidelines of the constitutionally defined spending
limit when revenues and the general fund balance allow it. When the
availability of funds precludes this level of spending, cuts occur
in the capital and operating budgets, while the capital budget falls
from 33 percent to 25 percent of the total. The state subsidy part
of the capital budget is eliminated and replaced with regular
capital spending. No change occurs in the portion of capital
expenditures funded by bonds. Contract ion of the state operating
budget automatically contracts state-local transfers for education
and other programs. If spending permanently falls below the limit,
the Permanent Fund Dividend program is eliminated and all of the
Fund earnings are transferred to the General Fund. The state
personal income tax is reimposed using the schedule in place during
the 1970s. All of these fiscal adjustments occur automatically with
the exception of three, as follows, and which are determined by the
user:
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1. Setting the level of state subsidy programs (EXSUBSl).
2. Determining the existence of Permanent Fund Dividend program
(EXPFDIST)
3. Determining the existence of reinvestment of Permanent Fund
earnings (EXPFBAK)
The values for these variables are chosen by rerunning each
simulation while monitoring the general fund balance. When the
balance falls near zero, the Permanent Fund distribution program is
eliminated, and two years later all Permanent Fund earnings begin to
be transferred to the General Fund. If this occurs after 1988,
state subsidies are automatically eliminated. If it occurs earlier,
the user must override the schedule of subsidy payments set through
1987.
Differences among simulations occur in three components of
petroleum revenues--royalties, severance taxes, and corporate income
taxes. Royalties and severance taxes in each simulation come from
Harza-Ebasco. These series are based upon petroleum price
assumptions run through the state of Alaska petroleum revenue impact
model to calculate revenues. Corporate income taxes are assumed in
each simulation to be the same ratio of a base case as severance
taxes. The base case is the level of revenues assumed to be
consistent with the state Department of Revenue 50 percent petroleum
revenue projections for royalties and severance taxes. Petroleum
revenues are extrapolated beyond 1999 using the growth rate over the
interval 1996 to 1999. The petroleum revenues are consistent with a
6. 5 percent annual inflation rate which, consequently, is used in
all six simulations.
In sum, six input variables differ among these simulations as
follows:
RPRY
RPTS
RTCSPX
EXSUBSl
EXPFDIST
EXPFBAK
Petroleum royalties
Petroleum severance taxes
Petroleum corporate income taxes
Level of state subsidies through 1987
Policy switch for Permanent Fund Distribution Program
Policy switch to direct Permanent Fund earnings into
General Fund
N-2
-
-
-
-
~·
-
I""'
Institute of Social
r-and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N .1. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
Total to -TOTAL General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri-
Royalties but ion) ,...,.
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1456.661 14 73.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
,... 1984 1508.173 1532.724 341.722 15 3.2 00 3570.885 3185.075
1985 1701.177 1705.368 399.2 72 158.000 3993.510 3560.792
"""" 1986 1831.36 7 1808.988 422.968 163.456 4254.766 3789.927
! 1987 1973.556 1932.3 79 456.399 169.101 4559.2 77 4058.92 7
1988 2001.545 1949.115 469.589 174.940 462 3.543 4116.066
1989 2109.927 1740.979 487.832 180.981 4548.867 4014.098
1990 2176.395 1786.434 520.520 187.2 31 4700.641 4149.023
1991 2036.216 1610.733 579.751 193.697 4451.422 3934.611
1992 1978.438 1512.403 622.983 200.385 4346.219 3843.606
1993 1971.635 14 76.211 674.086 207.305 4362.242 3861.082
1994 1929.960 1414.667 703.884 214.464 42 96.977 3805.986
1995 1778.028 12 53.217 727.250 221.870 4015.365 3562. 108 ,.,..,
lj
1996 1659.199 1107.354 755.589 22 9.532 3787.674 3363.874
1997 1675.236 1U5.503 804.059 237.458 3879.256 3451.197 ,... 1998 1662.242 1089.805 851.364 245.658 3887.068 3462.008 I 1999 1636.990 1026.704 908.109 254. 141 3864.944 3445.947
2000 1630.442 1001.036 965.438 . 262.917 3899.833 3482.223
~
I 2001 1623.920 976.010 1026.386 2 71.996 3939.313 3523.083
2002 1617.424 951.610 1091.183 2 81.389 3983.605 3568.750
2003 1610.954 927.820 1160.069 2 91.106 4032.949 3619.460
, .... 2004 1604.510 904.624 1233.304 301.158 4087.597 3675.469
2005 15 98.0 92 882.008 1311.164 311.558 4147.820 3737.047
!"""" 2006 1591.700 859.958 1393.938 322.317 4213.910 3804.485
2007 1585.333 838.459 1481.938 333.447 4286.176 3878.093
2008 1578.991 817.498 157 5.492 344.962 4364.941 3958.194
..... 2009 15 72.6 75 797 .o 60 1674.953 356.874 4450.563 4045.144
! 2010 1566.384 777.133 1780.695 369.-198 4543.410 4139.313
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.8 AND HER.8
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS, RP9S, AND RP9SGF
,_
N-3
, I
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ....,
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.l. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE !''''I
Part B
State Government ExEenditures
(Million $) ~
Unre-
stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent
..,,
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Programs Earnings
tures Tax Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 486.305 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500 c"'l!\
1984 3389.729 741.117 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3700.205 1123.496 224.409 0.000 350.000 0.500
1986 4033 .s 71 1487.867 255.622 0.000 350.000 0.500 -1987 4379.844 1861.5 78 2 89.844 0.000 350.000 0.500
1988 4736.676 2024.793 32 7.378 0.000 69 5.52 8 0.500
1989 5110.898 1784.977 367.033 0.000 750.555 0.500 ""'!'\
1990 5536.2 77 12 96.852 409.869 0.000 0.000 0.500
1991 5534.566 636.348 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500
.1992 5081.215 636.359 0.000 292.164 0.000 0.500 -.
1993 6042.754 636.379 0.000 586.240 0.000 0.000
1994 6095.320 636.398 0.000 634.880 0.000 0.000
1995 5953.105 636.398 0.000 6 74.155 0.000 0.000 -,
1996 5867.332 636.422 0.000 722.490 0.000 0.000
1997 6078.984 636.445 0.000 778.900 0.000 0.000 ."""\
1998 6221.434 636.469 0.000 839.393 0.000 0.000
1999 6340.441 636.488 0.000 903.787 0.000 0.000
2000 6521.238 636.508 0.000 974.693 0.000 0.000
2001 6715.750 636.52 7 0.000 1051.732 0.000 0.000
2002 6923.633 636.551 0.000 1135.767 0.000 0.000
2003 7149.6 76 636.5 74 0.000 1229.2 85 0.000 0.000 -2004 7396.832 636.598 0.000 1331.685 0.000 0.000
2005 7660.422 636.625 0.000 1442.191 0.000 0.000 -2006 794 3 0 316 636.656 0.000 1561.895 0.000 0.000
2007 8246.219 636.688 0.000 1691.311 0.000 0.000
2008 8570.668 636 0 723 0.000 1831.145 0.000 0.000
2009 8917.000 636.758 0.000 1980.322 0.000 0.000 -
2010 9285.110 636.793 0.000 2141.362 0 .ooo 0.000
-SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.8 AND HER.8
VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK
N-4
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE Nol. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part C
Employment
, .... (Thousands)
State -No n-ag State Railbelt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
'~ 1982 l92o903 231.984 154 o033 UOo533 33o500
1983 202.237 243o067 159.14 7 125.221 3 3. 92 7
1984 205.903 246o984 162.259 127.853 34o406
1985 216.616 258.401 169.200 133.671 35.52 9
1986 225o533 267.914 174o833 138.336 36.497 ,_ 1987 230.869 273.619 177.441 140.369 37.072
1988 234.713 277.728 179.468 142.103 37.365
1989 238.423 28lo713 182.354 144.621 37.733
1990 247.535 2 91.431 188.768 149.964 38o803
!"""
1991 247.834 2 91.765 191.015 151.584 39.431
1992 258.320 302.962. 195.175 155.613 39.561
1993 257.450 302.060 195.200 155.216 39o983
1994 255.676 300.202 194.554 154.452 40ol02
1995 254.940 2 99.458 194.711 154o665 40.046
~""""
1996 255.545 300.154 195.298 155.235 40.062
1997 257.016 301.7 87 196.820 156.547 40.2 73
1998 257.977 302.893 198.290 15 7 0 779 40.512
1999 259.498 304.617 200.043 159.260 40.7 83
2000 2 61.52 8 306.835 202 ol30 160o985 41.145
2001 263o653 309.101 204.3 76 162.824 41.552
2002 266ol16 311o729 206.858 164o863 4lo995
2003 269o510 315o349 209o 729 167o260 42o470.
2004 273o227 319 o314 212 o969 169 o935 43 o033
!"""' 2005 277o327 323.689 216.510 l72o854 43o657
2006 281.729 32 8o387 220.341 176o001 44o340 ,.... 2007 2 86o434 333o411 224o409 179.332 45 0 0 77
2008 2 91.490 338o8l0 228 0 724 182~86 7 45o857
2009 2 96o4 73 344o133 233ol57 186.468 46o 689
F 2010 . 301.986 350 o02 3 237o835 190.297 47~538
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HEo8 AND HERo8 ..... VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, Mo IR, MoAG, AND M.FG t
r-
N-5
I I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -
May 1983
TABLE N.l. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part D
Population
(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Rail belt Anchorage Fairbanks -
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.2 77
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.2 02 259.679 70.523
1985 490.151 341.616 269.303 72.314
1986' 505.904 352.2 04 278.096 74.108
1987 517.473 35 9.091 283.363 75.729 -
1988 526.895 -364.643 288.018 76.625
1989 536.735 372.631 294.858 77.774
1990 551.818 385.935 305.669 80.2 66
1991 559.661 392.000 310.373 81.62 7
1992 575.511 401.516 319.260 82.256
1993 583.065 404.208 32 0. 779 83.42 9
1994 586.305 407.908 322.943 84.965
1995 . 589.214 409.758 324.746 85 .012
"""·
1996 593.511 412.953 327.499 85.454
1997 598.565 417.538 331.323 86.215
1998 603. 148 421.495 334.617 86.879 -1999 608.044 42 5.801 338.208 8 7.594
2000 613.3 90 430.535 342.082 88.453
2001 618.775 435.480 346.091 89.390
2002 624.542 440.667 350.329 90.339
2003 631.361 446.405 355.093 91.313
2004 638.7 50 452.564 360.179 92.386 -
2005 646.708 459.156 365.615 93.541
2006 655.240 466.2 50 371.446 94.804 -2007 664.3 76 4 7 3. 703 377.565 96.139
2008 6 74. 189 481.681 384.109 97.573
2009 684.287 489.845 390.770 99.076
2010 695.2 04 498.676 397.999 100.678 '""'',
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE .8 AND HER .8 -VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG
...
N-6 -
N-7
01111!!!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
.....
May 1983
TABLE N.l. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part F
State Households br A~e of Head
(Thousands) -
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older ~
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.300 19.085 2 6. 763 93.488 25.964
1986 171.199 19.448 2 7.534 97.161 2 7.056
1987 175.635 19.528 2 7.909 100.075 28.124
1988 179.312 19.492 28.091 102.530 2 9.200 ~'
1989 183.119 19.511 28.325 104.963 30.320
1990 188.723 19.861 2 9.042 108.2 69 31.551
1991 191.839 19.776 2 9.096 110.241 32.725 -
1992 197.699 20.192 2 9. 898 113.566 34.043
1993 200.720 20.114 2 9.940 115.379 35.287
1994 202.2 55 19.833 2 9.630 116.288 36.504
1995 203.668 19.595 29.351 116.982 3 7. 740
1996 205.549 19.485 29.256 117.797 39.011 -1997 207.685 19.445 2 9.2 77 118.660 40.302
1998 209.6 58 19.394 29.296 119.3 77 41.592
1999 211.733 19.373 29.378 12 0.098 42.884 -· 2000 213.957 19.382 29.529 120.868 44.178
2001 216.190 19.394 2 9. 705 121.628 45.464
2002 218.546 19.424 29.931 122.449 46.742 -·
2003 221.254 19.504 30.261 12 3.468 48.02 0
2004 224.151 19.602 30.644 124.615 49.2 90
2005 22 7.237 19.716 31.073 12 5.898 50.549 .....
2006 230.513 19.844 31.545 12 7.324 51.799
2007 233.991 19.988 32.059 128.904 53.039
2008 237.695 20. 149 32.618 130.656 54.2 73
2009 241.494 20.308 33.183 132.509 55.494
2010 245.569 20.491 33.804 134.561 56.714 ·-SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.8 AND HER.8
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HHSS -
-
N-8
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.2. SIMULATION CASE: 1% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
r-(Million $)
Total to .... Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent ,_.
Taxes Federal Fund I
Shared Contri-
Royalties but ion)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1456.661 1473.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
.... 1984 152 7. 914 1552.734 346. 183 153.200 3615.097 3224.352
1985 1748.822 17 52.615 410.334 158.000 4099.461 3654.833
1986 1908.500 1884.047 440.518 163.456 4424.508 3940.386
!"""' 1987 2081.990 2037 .oos 481.110 169.101 4797.047 4269.586
1988 2138.U3 2080.186 501.167 174.940 4922.770 4381.148
1989 2282.825 1881.240 527.134 180.981 4901.328 4323.332
1990 2383.280 195 3.354 569.156 187.231 512 3.082 4519.746
1991 2255.336 1781.427 641.188 193.697 4902.672 4331.078
1992 2209.249 1686.935 694.875 200.385 482 3.453 4263.13 7
1993 2221.211 1661.915 758.885 207.305 4882.316 4318.762
1994 2195.779 1608.338 800.248 214.464 4852.828 42 95.383
1995 2039.784 1437.589 834.241 221.870 4568.484 4049.788
f"""· 1996 1919.686 1281.909 874.694 22 9.532 4341.820 3852.899
1997 1956.014 1315.485 939.7 82 237.458 4485.738 3987.485 -1998 1957.312 1285.495 1004.238 245.658 4530.699 4031.871
1999 1942.932 1221.899 1080.7 57 254.141 4538.72 7 4043.244
2000 1950.703 1202.349 1159.592 262.917 4615.559 4117.883
2001 1958.505 1183. 111 12 44. 177 271.996 4698.789 4198.910
2002 1966.339 1164.181 1334.932 281.389 4 788.840 4286.754
2003 1974.2 03 1145.554 1432.307 2 91.106 4886. 168 4381.867 -2004 1982.100 lll7.225 1536.784 301.158 4991.266 4484.738 I
2005 1990.027 1109.189 1648.882 311.558 5104.656 4595.898
2006 1997.987 1091.442 1769.159 322.317 522 6.902 4 715.902 ....
2007 2005.978 1073.979 1898.2 09 333.447 5358.613 4845.367
2008 2014.001 1056.796 2036.671 344.962 5500.426 4984.922
2009 2022.056 1039.887 2185.2 34 356.874 5653.051 5135.2 85 -2010 2030.144 102 3.249 2344.634 369.198 5817.223 5297.184
-SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS, RP9S, AND RP9SGF
~
N-9
'I -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation ....,
May 1983
TABLE N.2. SIMULATION CASE: 1% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE ~
Part B
State Government ExEenditures
(Million $) ....
Unre-
stricted Percent of -General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings -tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 486.305 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.729 780.395 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3 701.695 12 58.922 224.643 0.000 300.000 0.500
1986 4042.114 177 8.094 256.433 0.000 200.000 0.500
1987 4403.215 2367.781 2 91.610 0.000 100.000 0.500
1988 4771.078 2 812.434 330.515 0.000 698. 100 0.500
1989 5143.027 2924.793 371.941 0.000 752.445 0.500
1990 5558.977 2889.391 417.063 0.000 813.728 0.500
1991 5970.949 232 7. 652 465.532 0.000 875. 152 o. 500
1992 6491.305 1193.375 514.795 0.000 0.000 0.500
1993 6511.301 111.223 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500
1994 5721.824 111.238 0.000 332.896 0.000 0.500
1995 6560.609 111.258 0.000 669.139 0.000 0.000
1996 6495.719 111.281 0.000 734.092 0.000 0.000
1997 6762.500 111.305 0.000 791.315 0.000 0.000 ~
1998 6944.129 111.328 0.000 851.2 76 0.000 0.000
1999 7097.348 111.352 0.000 915.767 0.000 0.000
2000 7324.008 111.375 0.000 98 7.045 0.000 0.000
2001 7566.648 111.398 0.000 1064.419 0.000 0.000
2002 7825.238 111.414 0.000 1148.94 7 0.000 0.000 ~ 2003 8104.7 81 111.434 0.000 1243. 115 0.000 0.000
2004 8408.453 111.457 0.000 1346.2 82 0.000 0.000
2005 8 731.746 111.484 0.000 1457.654 0.000 0.000
2006 9077.820 111.512 0.000 157 8.339 0.000 o.ooo
2007 9447.700 111.543 0.000 1708.880 0.000 0.000
2008 9843.2 90 111.574 0.000 1849.992 0.000 0.000
2009 10265.220 111.609 0.000 2000.555 0.000 0.000
2010 10713.710 111.648 0.000 2163.069 0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK -
N-10 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.2. SIMULATION CASE: l% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part C
Employment
!"""" (Thousands)
r State
No n-Ag State Railbelt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total r
I 1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 12 0.533 33.500
1983 202.237 243.067 159.14 7 125.221 33.927 ...., 1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 127.853 34.406 [
I 1985 216.850 258.648 169.404 133.832 35.5 71 I
-1986 22 6.523 268.967 175.694 139.018 36.676
1987 233.000 275.888 179.283 141.831 3 7.452
1988 236.541 279.675 181.005 143.331 37.674
1989 239.357 282.707 183.082 14'5.2 09 37.873 -1990 246.490 2 90.318 187.470 148.909 38.561
1991 246.5 67 290.416 189.192 150.089 39.103
1992 265.311 310.417 200.146 159.497 40.649
1993 268.406 313.743 204.195 162.421 41.774
1994 262.866 307.867 200.869 15 9.636 41.233
1995 262.307 307.313 200.363 159.186 41..177
1996 263.551 308.689 201.195 159.886 41.309
1997 264.260 309.512 202.107 160.700 41.407
1998 264.253 309.585 202.871 161.372 41.499
1999 265.075 310.565 204.117 162.452 41.665
2000 266.762 312.417 205.960 16 3. 986 41.974
2001 2 68.643 314.423 2 08.031 165.687 42.344
2002 270.939 316.873 210.397 167.636 42.761
2003 2 74.2 23 3.20.3 77 213.196 169.977 43.219 -2004 277.853 324.251 216.381 172.611 43.770 '
2005 281.885 328.554 219.881 175.499 44.383
,._ 2006 286.239 333.203 223.687 17 8.628 45.059
2007 290.920 338.2 02 227.747 181.955 45.792
2008 295.971 343.597 232.069 185.497 46.572
2009 300.951 348.917 2 36.512 189.109 4 7.403
2010 306.468 354.812 241.205 192.952 48.253
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
N-11
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.2. SIMULATION CASE : 1% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part D
Po ulation
Thousands) '-
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks ....
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.2 02 259.679 70.523
1985 490.387 341.852 269.490 72.362
1986 507.001 353.254 2 78.931 74.324 SII!Sft
1987 52 0.062 361.484 285.269 7 6. 216
1988 529.741 367.035 289.935 77.101
1989 538.874 374.203 296.125 78.078
1990 551.884 384.894 304.800 80.094
1991 558.777 389 .515 • 308.32 3 81.193
1992 582.500 406.0 78 322.779 83.2 99 -1993 596.580 415.584 32 9.939 85.646
1994 598.194 418.2 57 331.482 86.775
1995 601.879 419.075 332.220 86.856
1996 607.461 422.741 335.228 87.513
1997 612.371 42 7.119 338.860 88.260
1998 616.430 430.720 341.870 88.850 -
1999 62 0.907 434.74 7 345.240 89.507
2000 626.068 439.370 349.031 90.339
2001 631.2 97 444.218 352.964 91.254
2002 636.942 449.336 357.150 92.186
2003 643.662 455.024 361.879 93.145 !III!"V
2004 650.945 461.126 366.925 94.202
2005 658.790 467.659 372.318 95.341
2006 667.2 09 474.695 378.109 96.587 ~
2007 676.239 482.093 384.187 97.906
2008 685.950 490.020 390.694 99.326
2009 695.937 498.12 7 397.316 100.812 -I
2010 706.745 506.906 404.508 102.398
-SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES: POP, P. IR, P .AG, AND P. FG
-
N-12
Institute of Social
r and Economic Research
I MAP Documentation I
' May 1983
I"""
TABLE N.2. SIMULATION CASE: 1% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE
Part E
Households ,...
(Thousands) !
Greater Greater
~ State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.5 72 83.6 78 22.894
,_ 1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 2 3.511
1984 159.154 115.6 71 91.425 24.246
1985 165.382 120.223 95.231 24.992
1986 171.5 78 124.649 98.876 25.773
1987 176.530 u 7.907 101.387 2 6.52 0
1988 180.300 130.2 85 103.364 26.921 -1989 18 3.86 7 133.118 105.788 27.330
1990 188.7 59 137.238 109.117 28.121
"""' 1991 191.54 7 139.12 7 110.559 28.568
1992 200. 112 145.392 116.001 29.391
1993 205.388 149.033 118.746 30.287
1994 206.389 150.2 76 119.521 30.7 55
1995 208.085 150.884 120.036 30.848
1996 210.424 152.487 121.343 31.144
1997 212.532 154.344 122.873 31.471
1998 214.347 155.887 124.152 31.7 35
1999 216.298 15 7 .583 125.561 32.022
2000 218.479 159.490 127.117 32.3 73 ,....
2001 220.679 161.4 74 12 8. 719 32.755
2002 223.014 163.5 51 130.411 33. 141
2003 225.709 165.831 132.2 96 33.535
2004 228.5 91 168.249 134.2 86 33.963
2005 2 31.660 170.816 136.397 34.419
I'"""
! 2006 234.919 173.558 138.645 34.914
2007 238.380 176.419 140.987 35.432
2008 242.069 179.464 143.4 78 35.986
1""" 2009 245.849 182.565 146.002 36.563
2010 249.905 185.906 148.730 37.175
f"""'
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES: HH, HH.IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
N-13
I I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.2. SIMULA.TION CASE: 1% ANNUAL DECLINE IN OIL PRICE -
Part F
State Households bz A~e of Head
(Thousands) -
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older
than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54 -
1982 145.453 17 0 141 23o938 8lo706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 2 3.816 -1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.382 19.100 2 6. 785 93.531 25.967
.~
1986 171.578 19.513 27.631 97.363 27.071
1987 176.530 19.675 28.132 100.564 28.160
1988 180.300 19.638 28.323 103.097 2 9o242
1989 183.867 19.601 2 8.4 78 105.431 30o357 -,
1990 188.7 59 19.824 2 9.000 108.371 31.565
1991 191.547 19o695 28.972 110.151 32.729 ~
1992 200. 112 20o576 30.489 114.889 34. 158
1993 205.388 2 0.828 31.081 117 o981 35.498
1994 206.389 20o 381 30.5 53 118.747 36.709 -1995 208.085 2 0.139 30.283 119o686 37o976
1996 210o424 20.060 30o245 120.827 39.291
1997 212.532 19o974 30.195 121.750 40.613
1998 214.347 19.868 30. 116 122.432 41.932
1999 216.298 19.807 30.120 12 3o112 43.259
2000 218.479 19.797 30.2 25 12 3.864 44.594 ~
2001 220.679 19.795 30.364 124.598 45 o922
2002 223.014 19.815 30.563 125o391 4 7.246
2003 22 5. 709 19.887 30.873 12 6.379 48.5 70
2004 228.591 19 0 9 7 8 31.2 39 12 7.488 49o887
2005 231.660 20.085 31.654 128.728 51.193 -2006 234.919 20.2 06 32.114 130.109 52.490
2007 238.380 2 0.343 32.618 131.644 53.776
2008 242.069 20.497 33.168 133.350 55.054 ""'l 2009 245.849 20.648 33.726 135.156 56o319
2010 249o 905 20o825 34.3 39 137o161 57.580
_.,
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.7 AND HER.7
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30o54, AND HH55 -
-
N-14
i I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MA.P Documentation
May 1983 -TABLE N. 3. SIMULATION CASE: CONSTANT OIL PRICE
Part B
State Government ExEenditures
(Million $) -
Unre-
stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings
tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.2 00 425.000 o.ooo 634.000 0.500
1983 3287.977 486.305 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.729 819.676 196.738 0.000 350.000 o. 500
1985 3700.677 1396.813 224.877 0.000 350.000 0.500
1986 4035.211 2086.863 257.244 0.000 350.000 0.500 -1987 4383.441 2938.980 293.385 0.000 350.000 0.500
1988 4743.129 3734.266 333.700 0.000 695.550 0.500
1989 5121.121 4273.090 376.963 0.000 750.604 0.500
1990 5539.363 4770.816 424.4 76 o.ooo 811.880 0.500
1991 5954.242 4815.613 475.896 0.000 873.306 0.500
1992 6464.086 4385.613 528.408 0.000 950.450 0.500
1993 7019.668 3572.234 583.079 0.000 0.000 0.500
1994 7606.453 2206.754 640.7 65 0.000 0.000 0.500
1995 7541.895 636.641 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500 ~
1996 6122.703 636.652 0.000 390.049 0.000 0.500
1997 7630.305 636.668 0.000 788.411 0.000 0.000
1998 7 880.04 7 636.691 0.000 868.410 0.000 0.000
1999 8081.688 636.715 0.000 933.966 0.000 0.000
2000 8367.254 636.734 0.000 1004.314 0.000 0.000
~"""~·
2001 867 3.625 636.750 0.000 1081.762 0.000 0.000
2002 9000.560 636.7 73 0.000 1166.823 0.000 0.000
2003 9352.800 636.797 0.000 1261.456 0.000 0.000 -2004 9734.010 636.820 0.000 1365.2 80 0.000 0.000
2005 10140.160 636.848 0.000 1477.538 0.000 0.000
2006 10574.820 636.879 0.000 1599.287 0.000 0.000 """"' 2007 11039.400 636.910 0.000 1731.013 0.000 0.000
2008 11536.360 636.945 0.000 1873.440 0.000 0.000
2009 12066.980 636.980 0.000 202 5.513 0.000 0.000 . -2010 12 632.210 637.020 0.000 2189.766 0.000 0.000
-SOURCE: MA.P MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK
~
N-16
Institute of Social
I""" and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
I'""' TABLE N.3. SIMULATION CASE: CONSTANT OIL PRICE
Part C
Employment ,-(Thousands)
State
fr<"'< No n-Ag State Rail belt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
f""' 1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 12 0.533 33.500
1983 202.2 37 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 12 7.853 34.406
,.,..,, 1985 216.620 2 58.404 169.2 03 133.6 73 35.529
1986 22 5.545 267.927 174.844 138.344 36.499
!""' 1987 230.898 2 73.650 177.466 140.389 37.077
1988 234.771 277.790 179.516 142.141 37.374
1989 238.522 281.818 182.436 144.688 37.748
1990 245.841 289.626 186.982 148.519 38.463 -1991 246.0 73 289.889 188.828 149.800 39.028
1992 263.196 308.161 198.029 15 7. 787 40.242
1993 268.383 313.719 203.845 162.12 9 41.715
1994 2 72.866 318.534 208.577 165.704 42.874
1995 2 76.687 322.653 211.840 168.320 43.520
r 1996 272.778 318.532 209.147 166.393 42.753
1997 273.648 319.526 209.2 68 166.418 42.850
1998 2 74.322 320.326 210.300 16 7.22 9 43.070
!""' 1999 274.073 320.164 210.715 167.639 43.076
2000 274.573 320.7 51 211.686 168.481 4 3.205
2001 275.662 321.912 213.174 169.719 43.455
2002 277.559 323.937 215.256 171.445 43.811
2003 280.542 32 7. 121 217.838 173.615 44.224
2004 283.966 330.776 220.879 176.136 44.743 -2005 287.865 334.939 224.2 92 178.956 45.336
2006 292.116 339.479 22 8.030 182.034 45.997
I'""' 2007 296.713 344.389 232.041 185.324 46.717
2008 301.699 349.716 236.32 7 18 8.840 4 7.487
2009 306.64 7 355.004 240.7 58 192.444 48.314 -2010 312.153 360.890 245.456 196.2 94 49.162
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6 -· VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
N-17
i!
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.3. SIMULATION CASE: CONSTANT OIL PRICE -Part D
PoJ2ulation
(Thousands) ....,
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.2 02 259.679 70.523
1985 490.154 341.619 269.306 72.314
1986 505.917 352.216 2 78.106 74.ll0 ~ 1987 517.508 359.121 283.387 75.734
1988 526.964 364.7 02 288.067 76.636
1989 536.859 372.735 294.944 77.792
1990 550.151 383.665 303.819 79.846 ~
1991 557.251 388.448 307.476 80.973
1992 579.380 402.759 320.096 82.663
1993 594.991 413.770 32 8.480 85.290
1994 607.199 425.280 336.991 88.2 89
1995 617.971 432.178 342.692 89.487 -
1996 620.838 434.3 99 344.854 89.545
1997 62 6. 791 437.694 34 7.334 90.360
1998 632.498 441.996 350.7 65 91.2 31 """'!
1999 636.808 445.820 353.951 91.869
2000 641.432 450.069 357.444 92.62 6
<1'1111
2001 646.314 454.679 361.185 93.495
2002 651.863 459.7 52 365.340 94.413
2003 658.498 465.391 370.032 95.360
2004 665.723 471.4 72 375.065 96.408 -.
2005 673.537 478.003 380.461 97.542
2006 681.909 485.027 386.246 98.7 82 -2007 690.874 492.404 392.314 100.091
2008 700.507 500.301 398.803 101.499
2009 710.420 508.379 405.405 102.974 ~ 2010 721.159 517. 133 412.583 104.551
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6 -VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG
-
N-18
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.3. SIMULATION CASE: CONSTANT OIL PRICE
Part E
Households
!""' (Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.5 72 83.6 78 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
If""' 1984 159.154 115.6 71 91.425 24.246
1985 165.301 uo .142 9 5. 16 7 24.975
!""' 1986 171.2 04 124.2 85 98.588 25.697
1987 17 5.64 7 12 7.076 100.729 2 6.348
1988 179.336 129.457 102.703 26.7 53
1989 183.162 132.587 lOS .361 2 7.22 6
1990 188. 149 136.790 108.760 28.030
1991 191.007 138.734 110.248 2 8.486
!""'> 1992 199.022 144.227 115 .o 63 29.165
1993 204.818 148.390 118.231 30.159
1994 209.452 152.747 121.449 31.2 98
r-1995 213.596 15 5 .506 12 3. 716 31.790
1996 215.035 156.5 99 124.7 33 31.865
1997 217.518 158.133 U5.900 32.233
f""'. 1998 219.915 159.9 51 12 7.347 32.604
1999 221.834 161.592 128.704 32.889
2000 223.854 163.382 130. 166 33.216 -2001 225.958 165.297 131.714 33.583
2002 228.2 85 167.375 133.407 33.968
2003 230.976 169.654 135.293 34.361
2004 233.864 172.083 137.293 34.790
2005 236.948 17 4.668 139.419 35.248
2006 240.217 177.425 141.681 35.744
2007 243.684 180.2 98 144.035 36.263
2008 247.373 183.352 146.535 36.817 -2009 2 51.154 186.461 149.068 37.393
2010 255.211 189.812 151.806 38.006
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES: HH, HH.IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
,....,
N-19
! I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N. 3. SIMULATION CASE: CONSTANT OIL PRICE -' Part F
State Households b! A~e of Head
(Thousands) ~
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54
1982 145.453 17. 141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.ll0 25.128 86.087 23.816 .,
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.301 19.086 2 6. 764 93.488 25.964 -1986 171.204 19.449 2 7. 5 35 97.163 27.056
1987 17 5.64 7 19.530 2 7. 912 100.081 28.124
1988 179.336 19.496 28.0 97 102.543 29.201
1989 183.162 19.517 2 8.335 104.987 30.322 -
1990 188.149 19.762 28.891 107.967 31.52 9
1991 191.007 19.647 28.889 109.780 32.691 ~
1992 199.022 20.436 30.2 66 ll4.22 7 34.093
1993 204.818 20.784 31.008 ll7 .579 35.447
1994 209.452 20.931 31.431 120.2 95 36.795 -1995 213.596 21.015 31.737 122.686 38. 15 9
1996 215.035 20.685 31.354 123.546 39.449
1997 217.518 20.596 31.317 124.802 40.802 ~'
1998 219.915 20.529 31.307 12 5. 910 42. 169
1999 221.834 20.412 31.218 126.675 43.528
2000 223.854 20.340 31.207 127.413 44.894 -
2001 225.958 20.298 31.262 128.136 46.263
2002 228.285 20.301 31.410 128.940 4 7. 634
2003 230.976 20.360 31.681 12 9.926 49.009
2004 233.864 20.442 32.017 131.025 50.380
2005 23 6.948 20.543 32.4ll 132.251 51.743
2006 240.217 20.658 32.853 133.608 53.098
2007 243.684 20.788 33.342 135.ll0 54.443
2008 247.373 20.935 33.880 136.777 55. 7 81 ,""'!
2009 251.154 21.079 34.42 7 138.542 57.105
2010 255.2ll 21.249 35.032 140.5 06 58.425 -SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.6 AND HER.6
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HH55
·-
N-20
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.4. SIMUlATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
r (Million $)
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
(""" Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri-
Royalties but ion)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1456.661 1473.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
1984 1587.146 1612.763 359.566 153.200 3747.741 3342.188
1985 1894.108 1896.679 444.0 63 158.000 4422.539 3941.589
1986 214 7.052 2116.177 494.793 163.456 4949.465 4405.703
1987 2425.629 2368.573 559.422 169.101 5550.566 4937.195
1988 2579.915 2504.169 603.315 174.940 5890.691 5238.621
1989 2852.770 2343.591 656.687 180.981 6063.176 5342.695
"""' 1990 3079.382 2514.983 732.801 187.231 6544.453 5767.090
1991 3000.0 70 2361.607 850.013 193.697 6436.410 5678.633
1992 3015.941 2296.923 946.139 200.385 6491.395 5729.406
1993 3109.054 2322.544 1060.550 '207 .305 6732.453 5946.938
1994 3162.103 2312.373 1150.549 214.464 6873.488 6074.461
1995 3008.396 2119.852 1230.163 221.870 6615.2 77 5854.426
1996 2904.606 1941.895 1325.028 22 9.532 6437.059 5701.906
1997 3036.613 2046.663 1462.135 237.458 6819.867 6051.461
1998 3116.226 2054.096 1604.674 245.658 7058.648 62 70.090 ,.-,
1999 3168.862 2 004.03 7 1772.551 254.141 7238.590 6436.621
2000 3260.760 202 4.078 1952.100 262.917 7539.852 6 714.660
2001 3355.323 2044.319 2149.835 2 71.996 7862.469 7013.387
2002 3452.628 2064.763 2367.602 281.389 8208.379 7334.719
2003 3552.755 2085.411 2607.426 2 91.106 8579.695 7680.754
2004 3655.786 2106.265 2871.543 301.158 8978.750 8053.801
2005 3 761.805 2127.328 3162.413 311.558 9408. 100 8456.395
2006 3870.898 2148.602 3482.748 322.317 9870.560 8891.336
2007 3983.154 2170.088 3835.532 333.44 7 10369.210 9361.680
2008 4098.664 2191.790 4224.04 7 344.962 10907.460 9870.790
2009 4217.523 2213.708 4651.918 356.8 74 11489.020 10422.3 90
I""" 2010 4339.832. 223 5.845 5123.133 369.198 12118.000 11020.540
,-SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS, RP9S, AND RP9SGF
N-21
! !
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -May 1983
TABLE N.4. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE /PIIf!il,
Part B
State Government Exyenditures
(Million $
""'!~
Unre-
stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent ~
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Programs Earnings
tures Tax Reinvested JI!!J!I!!I!I
1982 4601.891 399.200 425.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 486.305 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.729 898.230 196.738 0.000 35 0.000 0.500
1985 3701.146 16 74.7 54 225.346 o.ooo 350.000 0.500
1986 4036.879 2 701.742 258.895 0.000 350.000 0.500
1987 4387. 133 4056.852 297.021 0.000 350.000 0.500
1988 4749.832 552 9.086 340.2 65 0.000 695.573 0.500
1989 5131.844 6915.379 387.400 0.000 750.650 0.500 ""'l'
1990 5555.461 8492.555 440.024 o.ooo 811.970 0.500
1991 5977.328 9780.330 497.850 o.ooo 873.491 0.500
1992 6494.707 10784.920 55 7.492 0.000 950.701 0.500
1993 7044.500 11658.910 620.167 0.000 1029.354 0.500
1994 7584.113 12281.360 686.937 0.000 1105.2 93 0.500
1995 8184.426 1222 7. 780 757.520 0.000 1189.849 0.500
1996 8843.730 11458.130 82 9.643 0.000 1283.385 0.500
1997 9561.760 10363.960 903.970 0.000 o.ooo 0.500
1998 10380.540 8703.914 983.408 o.ooo o.ooo 0.500 -
1999 11248.540 6333.844 1067.576 0.000 0.000 0.500
2000 1217 8.230 3241.766 1156.379 0.000 0.000 0.500 -2001 9260.960 3241.781 1250.503 0.000 0.000 0.500
2002 9708.750 3241.793 1350.233 o.ooo o.ooo 0.500
2003 10192.130 3241.801 0.000 o.ooo 0.000 0.500
2004 14677.310 41.734 o.ooo 759.02 9 0.000 0.500
2005 14269.330 41.762 0.000 1527.563 0.000 0.000
2006 15006.750 41.793 0.000 167 8.949 0.000 0.000
2007 15 754.660 41.824 0.000 1809.837 0.000 0.000
2008 16563.450 41.863 o.ooo 1952.014 0.000 0.000
2009 17441.480 41.902 o.ooo 2106.625 0.000 0.000 -2010 18384.040 41.945 0.000 22 7 3.823 o.ooo 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK
~
N-22 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.4. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE
Part C -Employment
(Thousands)
State
No n-Ag State Railbelt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 120.533 3 3.500
1983 202.2 37 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 12 7.853 34.406
1985 216.622 258.407 169.2 05 133.6 75 35.530
1986 225.557 26 7.939 174.854 138.352 36.501 ,.... 1987 230.928 2 73.682 177.491 140.410 37.082
1988 234.830 2 77.853 179.565 142.181 37.383
1989 238.625 281.927 182.520 144.7 56 37.7 64
1990 246.003 289.800 187.116 148.62 8 38.488
1991 246.315 2 90. 14 7 189.025 149.960 39.065
1992 263.530 308.517 198.300 158.008 40.2 92
1993 267.011 312.2 55 202.2 93 160.872 41.421
1994 269.457 314.897 204.926 162.730 42.196
1995 2 74.952 320.801 209.620 166.496 43. 124
1996 281.686 328.039 214.693 170.584 44. 109
1997 289.380 336.319 221.540 176.170 45.3 70
1998 296.386 343.884 228.173 181.547 46.62 6
1999 302.670 350.701 233.611 185.968 4 7. 643
2000 308.867 35 7.377 238.937 190.276 48.661
,_
2001 304.5 79 352.793 237.340 189.402 47.939
2002 305 .• 188 353.444 23 7.826 189.790 48.035
2003 308.315 356.7 86 239.6 79 191.2 00 48.4 79 -2004 315.847 364.839 245.102 195.323 49.780
2005 315.169 364. 115 245.595 195.942 49.653
,... . 2006 317.479 366.584 24 7.142 197.140 50.002
2007 319.340 368.575 248.958 198.665 50.2 93
2008 322.811 372.287 252.127 201.294 50.833
2009 326.371 376.095 255.510 204.058 51.452
2010 331.099 381.154 259.656 207.472 52.183
t"""· SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
-
N-23
i I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 ....
TABLE N.4. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE
Part D
PoJ2ulation
(Thousands) ~
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks -
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 6 7.2 77
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.2 02 259.679 70.523
1985 490.157 341.622 269.308 72.315
1986 505.930 352.227 2 78.116 74.112
1987 517.542 359.151 283.412 75.739
1988 527.035 364.762 288.117 76.646
1989 536.986 372.841 2 95.031 77.811 -1990 550.359 383.836 303.960 79.876
1991 557.565 388.704 307.686 81.018 -1992 579.826 403.120 320.393 82.727
1993 593.775 411.797 32 6.872 84.926
1994 603.2 72 420.188 332.818 87.371
1995 614.826 42 8.017 339.287 88.731 "'"''
1996 628.404 437.664 347.090 90.5 75
1997 643.491 450.723 357.727 92.997 .~
1998 658.760 463.546 368.142 95.404
1999 673.393 474.944 377.392 97.553
2000 687.750 486.242 386.503 99.7 39
lOili!':
2001 691.353 491.611 391.467 100.145
2002 697.792 495.973 394.937 101.036
2003 706.604 501.503 399.206 102.298
2004 720. 166 510.824 406.267 104.557
2005 726.125 517.048 411.635 105.414 -2006 734.053 522.247 415.713 106.534
2007 741.348 528.141 420.564 107.578
2008 750.130 535.4 77 426.608 108.869
2009 759.075 542.871 432.655 110.216 ~
2010 769.2 33 551.2 79 439.569 111.711 -SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG -
-
N-24
Institute of Social
I'"" and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.4. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE
Part E
Households -(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.5 72 83.6 78 22.894
r--1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159.154 115.6 71 91.425 24.246
1985 165.302 uo~ 143 95.168 24.975
-1986 171.2 08 124.2 89 98.5 92 25.698
1987 175.658 u 7.087 100.737 2 6.350
1988 179.361 129.4 78 102.721 26.757
~~ 1989 183.206 132.625 105.393 2 7.232
1990 188.221 136.851 108.810 28.040
!"""' 1991 191.115 138.825 110.323 28.502
' 1992 199.176 144.356 115.168 29.188
1993 204.402 14 7. 719 117.685 30.034
1994 208. 104 150.998 120.018 30.980
f""' 1995 212.509 154.072 122.545 31.52 7
1996 217.611 15 7.814 125.561 32.253
1997 22 3.239 162.746 u 9.565 33.181
1998 22 8. 940 16 7.5 71 133.4 72 34.099
1999 234.434 171.932 136.999 34.933
2000 239.844 176.267 140.485 35.7 83 ,-
2001 241.594 178.463 142.488 35.976
2002 244.2 95 180.3 73 144.005 36.368 ,..,.., 2003 247.799 182.704 145.807 36.897
2004 252.919 186.363 148.5 77 3 7. 7 86
2005 255.467 188.880 150.731 38.149
2006 258.673 -191.089 152.463 38.625
2007 2 61.660 193.507 154.443 39.063
2008 265. 145 196.423 156.836 39.587
I""' 2009 268.681 199.351 159.221 40.130
2010 272.625 202.640 161.915 40.725
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES: HH, HH.IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
N-25
I I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research ~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.4. SIMULATION CASE: 2% ANNUAL INCREASE IN OIL PRICE """"~
Part F
State Households b~ A~e of Head
(Thousands) -
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older ..... ,
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54
1982 145.453 17. 141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25. us 86.087 2 3.816 .-,
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.302 19.086 26.764 93.489 2 5.964
~
1986 171.208 19.450 2 7.536 97.165 27.056
1987 175.658 19.532 2 7.914 100.088 28.125
1988 179.361 19.500 28.103 102.557 2 9.2 02 .....
1989 183.206 19.524 28.346 105.012 30.324
1990 188.221 19.773 28.909 108.008 31.532
1991 191.115 19.662 28.914 109.843 32.696 """I!
1992 199.176 20.458 30.302 114.317 34.100
1993 204.402 20.710 30.892 117.368 35.432
1994 208.104 20.713 31.080 119.568 36.743 -1995 212.509 20.866 3l.4 79 122.050 38.115
1996 217.611 21.142 32.0 75 124.849 39.545
1997 22 3.239 21.496 32.811 u 7.907 41.025 -,
1998 22 8. 940 21.844 33.559 131.001 42.535
1999 234.434 22.143 34.246 133.983 44.062
2000 239.844 22.419 34.907 136.909 45.610 -,
2001 241.594 22.120 34.603 137.836 4 7.035
2002 244.2 95 22.035 34.617 139.132 48.511 ~
2003 247.799 22. 103 34.890 140.779 50.028
2004 252.919 22.420 35.616 143.2 70 51.612
2005 255.467 22.323 35.657 144.390 53.098
2006 258.673 22.349 35.910 145.807 54.608
2007 2 61.660 22.348 '36.128 14 7.080 5 6.104
2008 265. 145 22.428 36.5 01 148.605 57.612 ~
2009 268.681 22.509 36.898 150.164 59.111
2010 272.625 22.642 37.409 151.960 60.615
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.4 AND HER.4
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.2 9, HH30.54, AND HH55 -
-N-26
Institute of Social
~ and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N .5. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK
ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
I'"", Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri--Royalties but ion)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.899 142.700 3960.199 3570.549 -1983 1456.661 14 73.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2985.396
1984. 1450.305 1474.080 328.647 153.200 3441.298 3069.956
1985 1555.117 1560.529 365.3 62 158.000 3668.700 3272.498
1986 1724.811 1705.2 98 398.724 163.456 4020.278 3582.078
1987 1896.215 1857.760 438.776 169.101 4389.691 3908.677
1988 1997.731 164 7.607 396.949 17 4. 940 4245.582 3739.060
1989 2251.456 1855.795 520.004 180.981 4837.387 4267.2 34
1990 2480.380 2031.695 591.983 18 7.2 31 5321.348 4693.734
r 1991 2352.500 185 7. 12 6 668.435 193.697 5102.781 4506.898
1992 2530.2 91 192 9 .692 794.871 200.385 5487.250 4846.672
1993 2657.006 1986.190 906.9 59 207.305 5 790.461 5117.957
1994 2742.898 2006.949 998.581 214.464 5996.891 5302.664
I~ 1995 2651.116 1868.193 1084.124 221.870 5860.301 5188.770
1996 2599.817 173 7.659 1185.670 22 9.532 5788.676 5129.719
1997 2 755.836 1856.672 1326.406 237.458 6213.367 5515.156
1998 2865.556 188 7.844 14 74.798 245.658 6511.852 5785.961
1999 2 950.992 1865.044 1649.613 254.141 6758.785 6011.2 85
2000 3077.885 1909.805 1841.891 262.917 7132.496 6353.023
2001 3210.235 1955.641 2056.580 271.996 7535.449 6722.641
2002 3348.276 2002.576 2296.294 281.389 7970.531 . 7122.961 -2003 3492.2 52 2050.638 2563.949 291.106 8440.941 7557.125
2004 3642.420 2099.854 2862.802 301.158 8950.230 8028.625
2005 3 799.044 2150.2 51 3196.489 311.558 9502.340 8541.328 ,-
2006 3962.404 2201.857 3569.072 322.317 10101.640 9099.540
2007 4132.781 2254.702 3985.082 333.447 10753.010 9708.060
2008 4310.492 2308.815 4449.578 344.962 11461.840 10372.220
!""" 2009 4495.844 2364.227 4968.219 356.874 12234.160 11097.950 I·
2010 4689.164 2420.969 5547.316 369.198 13076.640 11891.850
"""" : SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l2 AND HER.l2
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS, RP9S, AND RP9SGF
N-2 7
I I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.S. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK -ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
Part B
State Government ExEenditures -(Mill ion $)
Unre-
stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings
tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 42 5 .ooo 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 4 78.004 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.729 616.992 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3699.507 700.539 223.721 o.ooo 350.000 0.500 -
1986 4031.094 821.113 253.168 0.000 350 .ooo 0.500
1987 4375.941 987.922 286.008 0.000 350.000 0.500
1988 4731.574 699.973 322.441 0.000 695.501 0.500 -· 1989 5118.008 588.465 361.817 0.000 0.000 0.500
1990 5576.836 506.125 406.085 0.000 o.ooo o.soo
1991 5386.480 506.141 455.185 0.000 0.000 0.500
1992 5786.504 506.152 505.111 0.000 0.000 0.500
1993 6528.020 139.531 o.ooo 0.000 0.000 0.500
1994 672 9.594 139.543 0.000 338.049 0.000 0.500 -· 1995 772 9.2 50 139.563 0.000 680.847 0.000 o.ooo
1996 7822.879 139.586 0.000 748.723 0.000 0.000 -1997 8361.188 139.609 0.000 809.145 o.ooo 0.000
1998 8794.711 139.633 o.ooo 873.359 0.000 0.000
1999 9190.000 139.652 0.000 941.928 0.000 o.ooo
2000 9713.740 139.668 0.000 1017.188 0.000 0.000 -
2001 102 78.2 70 139.691 0.000 1098.944 0.000 0.000
2002 10886.180 139.711 0.000 1188.241 0.000 0.000
2003 11545.180 139.734 0.000 12 87.516 0.000 o.ooo
2004 12261.640 13 9. 766 0.000 1396.16 9 o.ooo o.ooo
2005 13034.660 139.7 89 0.000 1513.479 0.000 0.000 -
2006 138 71.350 139.820 0.000 1640.603 0.000 o.ooo
2007 14 777. 160 139.852 0.000 1778.121 o.ooo 0.000
2008 15758.890 139.891 o.ooo 1926.802 0.000 0.000
2009 16822.770 139.934 0.000 2085.652 0.000 0.000
2010 17975.270 139.980 0.000 2257.400 0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l2 AND HER.l2
VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK -
N-28
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK
ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
Part C
Employment
(Thousands)
State
No n-Ag State Railbelt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 12 0.533 3 3.500
1983 202.2 37 243.067 159.147 125.221 33.927
~· 1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 12 7.853 34.406
' 1985 216.612 258.396 169.197 133.668 35.528
1986 225.515 26 7.895 174.818 138.324 36.494 -1987 230.833 273.581 177.412 140.345 37.067
1988 234.657 277.669 179.422 142.065 3 7.35 7
1989 240.213 283.619 184.211 146. 124 38.088
1990 249.654 293.689 190.883 151.685 39.198
1991 247.908 2 91.844 191.3 60 151.958 39.402
1992 264.012 309.031 199.404 15 8.995 40.409
1993 266.941 312. 180 202.842 161.351 41.492
1994 267.220 312.511 203.630 161.669 41.961
1995 268.534 313.954 204.668 162.466 42.202
1996 270.783 316.404 206.258 163.772 42.486
1997 272.935 318.765 208.212 165.401 42.811
1998 274.346 320.353 210.041 166.916 43.125
1999 2 76. 144 322.374 212.025 168.580 43.445
2000 278.729 32 5.186 214.541 170.645 43.897
2001 281.498 328.141 217.2 83 172.875 44.408
2002 284.643 331.499 220.293 175.333 44.960
2003 288.727 335.859 223.703 178.156 45.546 ,..... 2004 293.137 340.569 22 7.487 181.265 46.222
2005 297.941 345.701 231.584 184.625 46.959
r-2006 30 3.062 351.172 235.985 188.226 47.759
2007 308.504 356.989 240.639 192.025 48.614
2008 314.317 363.203 245.561 196.044 49.517
2009 320.082 369.368 250.621 200. 146 50.4 75 r-2010 32 6.440 376.169 255.974 204.512 51.462
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l2 AND HER.l2
VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
r
N-29
I I
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK -ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
PART D
Population
(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks -,
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.2 02 259.679 70.523
1985 490.146 341.613 269.300 72.313
1986 505.884 352.187 2 78.082 74. 105
1987 517.431 359.054 283.333 75.723
1988 526.823 364.583 287.969 76.615
1989 538.532 375.007 296.794 78.213 """'
1990 554.634 389.026 308.196 80.831
1991 560.786 393.296 311.585 81.712 -1992 581.846 405.991 322.865 83. 12 7
1993 594.848 413.788 328.521 85.268
1994 602.02 7 420. 130 332.694 87.436
1995 608.810 42 3.460 335.464 8 7. 99 7
1996 616.422 428.574 339.629 88.945
1997 623.782 434.617 344.561 90.057 ~
1998 630.352 440.001 348.981 91.021
1999 636.928 445.519 353.531 91.988
2000 644. 111 451.561 358.441 93. 12 0 ~
I
2001 651.362 45 7.835 363.501 94.335
2002 658.994 464.3 62 368.801 95.561
2003 667.660 471.437 374.626 96.811
2004 676.878 478.925 380.7 69 .98.156
2005 686.663 486.851 387.267 99.584 -2006 697.022 495.2 87 394.168 101.119
2007 707.990 504.091 401.364 102.72 7
2008 719.644 513.431 408.995 104.436 ""'' 2009 7 31.592 522.970 416.755 106.216
2010 744.418 533.218 425.115 108.104 -I
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l2 AND HER.l2
VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG
""""
N-30 -
I""'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK
ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
PART E
I""' Households I
(Thousands)
,.... Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.572 83.6 78 22.894 ,_
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511
1984 159. 154 115.671 91.425 24.246
1985 165.299 120.140 95.165 2 4.974
1986 171.192 124.2 75 98.5 80 25.695
1987 17 5.620 12 7.053 100.709 2 6.344 -1988 179.287 129.415 102.669 26.746
1989 183.738 133.365 105.994 2 7.3 71
1990 189.696 138.640 110.267 28.3 73 -1991 192.234 140.401 111.662 28.739
1992 199.886 145.348 116.024 29.324
1993 204.788 148.405 118.253 30.152
1994 207.695 150.964 119.963 31.002
1995 210.461 152.463 121.197 31.267
-1996 213.508 154.590 122.921 31.669
1997 216.470 15 7.052 124.921 32.131
1998 219.161 159.242 12 6. 710 32.532
1999 221.854 161.483 12 8.549 32.934 ,..... 2000 224.7 51 163.913 130.515 33.398
2001 22 7.670 166.423 132.532 33.891
2002 230.716 169.023 134.636 34.388
2003 234.112 171.820 136.928 34.892
2004 237.695 174.758 139.32 9 35.42 9
2005 241.468 177.849 141.853 35.996
2006 245.436 181.121 144.520 36.601
2007 249.609 184.516 14 7.285 3 7.2 31
I"""' 2008 254.014 188.100 150.2 03 37.896
2009 258.519 191.748 153.162 38.586
2010 263.323 195.6 52 156.336 39.316
F
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l2 AND HER.l2
VARIABLES: HH, HH.IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
I""'
N-31
I I
1!1111!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.5. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK -
ASSOCIATES NO SUPPLY DISRUPTION CASE
Part F
State Households b! A~e of Head -(Thousands)
Head ~ Total Younger Head Head Head Older
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54
1982 145.453 17. 141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 15 3.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 2 3. 816
1984 159. 154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.299 19.085 2 6. 763 93.487 25.964 110'111
1986 171.192 19.447 2 7. 5 32 97. 15 7 27.056
1987 17 5.620 19.526 2 7.905 100.067 28.123
1988 179.287 19.488 28.085 102.516 2 9. 199 -· 1989 183.738 19.617 2 8.486 105.2 90 30.345
1990 189.696 20.014 2 9.2 85 108.807 31.591
1991 192.234 19.816 29.171 110.503 32.744
1992 199.886 20.529 30.434 114.7 87 34. 13 7
1993 204.788 20.725 30.930 117.672 35.462 l!!rl!l,
1994 207.695 20.603 30.9 09 119.437 36.746
1995 210.461 20.508 30.893 121.002 38.058
1996 213.508 20.500 30.996 122.606 39.407 -
1997 216.470 2 0.504 31.114 124.079 40.772
1998 219.161 20.485 31.199 125.334 42. 143
1999 221.854 20.485 31.321 126.523 43.523 ~
2000 224.751 20.530 31.532 12 7. 7 71 44.917
;
2001 22 7.670 20.583 31.773 12 9.000 46.313
2002 230.716 20.656 32.069 130.2 79 4 7. 712
2003 234.112 20.780 32.4 72 131.742 49.119
2004 237.695 20.920 32.92 9 133.319 50.526
2005 241.468 21.077 33.435 135.024 51.932
2006 245.436 21.247 33.987 136.866 53.336
2007 249.609 21.432 34.583 138.856 54.738 ..
2008 254.014 21.634 35.2 26 141.014 56. 139
2009 258.519 21.833 35.878 143.272 57.536
2010 263.323 22.058 36.5 92 145.736 58.937
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l2 AND HER.l2
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HH55 -
N-32 -
Institute of Socia 1 ,_ and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
r-TABLE N.6. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE
r Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
!""" (Million $) I
r
Total to
/"""' Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
!""" Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri-
Royalties but ion)
!"""
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1456.661 14 73.507 233.969 148.600 3361.836 2 985.396
,.... 1984 1450.305 14 74.080 328.647 153.200 3441.2 98 3069.956
1985 1555.117 1560.52 9 365.362 158.000 3668.700 3272.498
1986 1724.811 1705.2 98 398.723 163.456 4020.277 3582.077
1987 1896.215 1857.760 438.775 169.101 4389.691 3908.677
1988 1997.731 164 7.607 396.949 174.940 4245.582 3739.060
1989 3724.894 3051.093 854.933 180.981 7 841.04 7 6902.535
1990 3918.895 3192.306 930.155 187.231 8258.645 72 71.402
1991 3842.630 3017.983 1086.2 62 193.697 8171.598 7203. 184
1992 3892.345 2 959.623 1219.116 200.385 8303.4 73 7322.383
1993 4038.582 3014.198 1376.381 207.305 8669.465 7651.566
1994 4143.422 3027.331 1506.285 214.464 894 5.492 7881.137
1995 3971.011 2797.890 1623.633 221.870 8649.398 764 7.895
1996 3869.246 2588.2 96 1766.092 229.532 8489.160 7512.848
1997 4080.7 58 2753.181 1966.8 71 237.458 9075.2 70 8045.824
!""" 1998 4223.734 2788.598 2178.473 245.658 94 7 4.460 8409.02 7
1999 4330.508 2745.177 2428.082 254.141 9796.900 8704.523
2000 4495.066 2800.082 2700.508 262.917 10298.57Q 9164.800 -2001 4665.879 2 856.084 3003.500 271.996 10838.450 9661.730
2002 4843.180 2 913.207 3340.488 281.389 11420.260 10198.960
2003 502 7.219 2 971.4 73 3 715.2 85 291.106 12048.080 10780.520
:-2004 5218.254 3030.903 4132.133 301.158 12 72 6.450 11410.880
2005 5416.547 3091.523 4595.750 311.558 13460.370 12094.980
,_ 2006 5622.375 3153.354 5111.387 322.317 14255.430 12838.340
2007 5836.023 3216.423 5684.879 333.447 15117.770 13647.010
2008 6057.793 3280.753 6322.711 344.962 16054.210 1452 7. 770
2009 6287.988 3346.369 7032.109 356.874 17072.340 15488.090
!"'" 2010 6526.930 3413.2 98 7821.105 369.198 18180.530 16536.290
!""" SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE .11 AND HER.11
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS , RP 9S, AND RP 9SGF
("""' N-33
I!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research !"""!.
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.6. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE -1
Part B
State Government ExEenditures
(Million $) l!!ll!!!l
Unre-
stricted Percent of -General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings
tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 42 5.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 4 78.004 152.608 o.ooo 500.000 0.500 -1984 3389.72 9 616.992 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3699.507 700.539 223.721 0.000 350.000 0.500
1986 4031.094 821.113 253.168 0.000 350.000 0.500 -
1987 4375.941 987.922 286.008 o.ooo 350.000 0.500
1988 4731.574 699.973 322.441 0.000 695.501 0.500
1989 5118.008 3223.754 361.817 0.000 0.000 0.500 ~,
1990 5573.352 5963.813 42 3.582 0.000 813.366 0.500
1991 5984.609 8552.969 490.596 0.000 871.614 0.500
1992 6504.379 1103 7.870 559.899 0.000 947.635 0.500
1993 7054.742 13639.220 633.0 95 0.000 1024.663 0.500
1994 7596.676 16246.970 711.518 0.000 1099.088 0.500
1995 8200.223 18343.450 794.921 0.000 1182.099 0.500
1996 8863.949 19932.590 880.251 0.000 1274.257 0.500
1997 9568.500 21608.150 968.438 0.000 1372.886 0.500
1998 10320.270 23168.750 1063.33 7 0.000 1477.449 0.500
1999 1112 7. 700 24487. 140 1164.454 0.000 1590.320 0.500
2000 11994.410 25658.150 12 71.653 0.000 1711.744 0.500
2001 12 924.2 30 2 6652.990 1385.910 0.000 1841.364 0.500
2002 1392 6.490 27433.730 1507.635 0.000 1980.824 0.500
2003 15012.480 2 7954.660 1637.259 0.000 2132.305 0.500
2004 16168.650 28187.950 177 5.238 0.000 2295.2 71 0.500
2005 17406.510 28093.130 1922.051 0.000 2470.945 0.500
~
2006 18744.470 27615.590 2078.203 0.000 2660.411 0.500
2007 20239.340 2 6645.7 90 2244.2 30 0.000 0.000 0.500
2008 21964.710 25020.710 2420.691 0.000 0.000 0.500
2009 23797.580 22676.660 2 608. 180 o.ooo 0.000 0.500 -·· 2010 25753.130 19514.110 2807.320 0.000 0.000 0.500
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.11 AND HER.11
VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK -
N-34 -
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MA~ Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.6. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCL~TES BASE CASE
~art C
Employment
!""" (Thousands)
State
No n-Ag State Rail belt Greater Greater -Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 120.533 3 3.500
1983 202.2 37 243.067 159.147 12 5.221 33.92 7
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 12 7.853 34.406
1""" 1985 216.612 258.396 169.197 133.668 35.528
I,
1986 225.515 267.895 174.818 138.324 36.494
1987 230.833 273.581 177.412 140.345 37.067
1988 234.657 2 77.669 179.422 142.065 37.357
1989 240.213 283.619 184.211 146. 124 38.088
1990 246.856 290.708 188.428 149.748 38.680 -1991 244.564 2 88.2 81 188.0 54 149.279 38.77 5
1992 261.156 305.986 196.836 156.929 39.908
1993 264.320 309.385 200.596 159.606 40.990 -1994 266.370 311.604 202.942 161.237 41.705 I
1995 2 71.525 317. 144 207.397 164.816 42.580 -1996 278.133 32 4.24 7 212.393 168.848 43.545
1997 284.071 330.651 217.352 172.900 44.451
1998 288.968 335.960 221.8D5 176.496 45.309
1999 294.282 341.739 226.449 180.2 70 46.179
2000 299.695 34 7.5 75 2 31.155 184.080 4 7.075
2001 304.900 353.137 235.7 99 187.828 47.971 r 2002 310.287 358.895 240.574 191.695 48.879
2003 316.501 365.539 245.672 195.8 73 49.800
2004 322 0 914 372.397 2 51.061 200.269 50.792
2005 329.623 379.574 256.698 2 04.868 51.830
2006 336.597 387.038 262.607 209.682 52 0 92 6 -2007 346.810 397.972 2 71.385 216.757 54.628
2008 358.232 410.206 281.136 224.639 56.498
2009 367.5 62 420.204 289.157 231.140 58.018
2010 377.130 430.461 2 97. 158 23 7.64 7 59.512
~
' J
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l1 AND HER.11
VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
N-35
II
1'11!!1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.6. SIMUL..>\TION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE -.
Part D
PoJ2ulation
(Thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 67.277
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.752 330.2 02 259.679 70.523 -
1985 490.146 341.613 269.300 72.313
1986 505.884 352.187 2 78.082 74.105
1987 517.431 359.054 283.333 75.723
1988 526.823 364.583 287.969 76.615
1989 538.532 375.007 296.794 7 8.213
1990 551.784 386.2 00 305.9 72 80.228
1991 556.419 388.493 307.673 80.820
1992 577.402 401.938 319.599 82.339
1993 590.2 90 409.878 32 5.490 84.389
1994 598.856 417.640 330.9 34 86.706
1995 609.599 424.922 336o976 8 7.94 7 -1
1996 622o606 434o2 03 344.497 89o707
1997 635o485 444o501 352o883 9lo619
64 7. 624 453.869 360.467 93.402 -1998
1999 660.064 463.593 368o358 95.236
2000 672.663 473o591 3 76o424 97ol67 ....
2001 685.043 483.618 384.480 99 0138
2002 697.642 493.792 392.695 101.098
2003 711.175 504.462 401.398 103.064 ~
2004 725o159 Sl5o493 410.381 105. 112
2005 739.617 52 6 o909 419o680 107o229
2006 754.5 93 538.804 42 9.358 109.446 ~·
2007 773ol49 554.087 441.697 112.390
2008 793o962 571.134 455.494 115 0 640
2009 813.514 586.543 468 o008 118o535 -2010 833o488 602 o2 so 480o775 121.4 75
~
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.11 AND HER.11
VARIABLES: POP, PoiR, P.AG, AND PoFG
N-36
Institute of Social
~~ and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983 -TABLE N.6. SIMULATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE
Part E
Households -(Thousands)
Greater Greater -State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.5 72 83.6 78 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 23.511 -1984 159. 154 115.6 71 91.425 24.246
1985 165.299 120.140 95.165 24.974
1986 171.192 124.2 75 98.580 25.695
1987 17 5. 620 12 7.053 100.709 2 6.344
1988 179.287 129.415 102.669 26.746
1989 183.738 13 3. 365 105.994 2 7.3 71
!""" 1990 188.714 137.654 109.495 28.159
1991 190.726 138.734 110.308 2 8.426
1992 198.345 143.918 114.8 75 29.043
1993 203.202 14 7 .016 117.181 2 9.835
1994 206.579 150.066 119.3 32 30.734
1995 210.698 152.940 121.703 31.23 6
1996 215.598 156.545 124.615 31.930
1997 220.461 160.521 12 7.841 32.680 -1998 225.079 164.142 130.763 33.379
1999 22 9.805 167.898 133.801 34.098
2000 234.591 171.7 56 136.904 34.853
2001 239.308 17 5.628 140.005 3 5.62 3
2002 244.105 179.558 143.167 36.391
!"""· 2003 249.225 183.6 70 146.510 3 7. 160
2004 254.504 187.910 149.952 37.959
2005 259.952 192.291 153.508 3 8. 783
2006 265.581 196.846 157.202 39.644
2007 2 72.433 202.577 161.814 40.763
2008 280.065 208.937 166.946 41.991 ,.... 2009 287.289 214.744 171.647 43.096
I
2010 294.669 220.672 176.452 44.221
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.ll AND HER.ll
VARIABLES: HH, HH.IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
~
N-37
i I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation -,
May 1983
TABLE N.6. S IMUIATION CASE: SHERMAN CLARK ASSOCIATES BASE CASE
Part F
State Households bl A~e of Head
(Thousands)
Head
Total Younger Head Head Head Older
Than 25 25-29 30-54 Than 54 Jlilllli1
1982 145.453 17. 141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816 ·~;
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 165.299 19.085 2 6. 763 9 3.487 2 5.964
1986 171.192 19.447 2 7. 5 32 97.157 27.056
1987 17 5.620 19.526 2 7. 905 100.067 28.123
1988 179.2 87 19.488 28.085 102.516 2 9. 199
1989 183.738 19.617 28.486 105.2 90 30.345
1990 188.714 19.848 29.029 108.2 85 31.5 52
1991 190.726 19.581 28.797 109.666 32.682 -1992 198.345 20.314 30.0 77 113.884 34.070
1993 203.202 20.523 30.587 116.705 35.386
1994 206.579 20.495 30.713 118.6 90 36.681
1995 210.698 2 0.624 31.064 120.975 38.036 ~
1996 215.598 20.890 31.636 12 3. 621 39.451
1997 22 0.461 21.143 32.203 12 6.226 40.889 -1998 225.079 21.350 32.709 128.6 79 42.341
1999 22 9.805 21.572 33.251 131.164 43.818
2000 234.5 91 21.799 33.814 133.663 45.316 -
2001 239.308 22.008 34.362 136.112 46.82 7
2002 244.105 22.2 25 34.935 138.5 90 48.355
2003 249.225 22.483 35.596 141.239 49.907 -
2004 254.504 22.751 36.2 95 143.981 51.477
2005 259.952 2 3.030 3 7.030 146.828 53.064
2006 265.581 23.318 37.803 149.792 54.668
2007 2 72.433 23.768 38.886 153.449 56.330
2008 280.065 24.2 92 40.140 157.598 58.035
2009 28 7.289 2 4. 711 41.239 161.601 59.738
2010 2 94.669 25. 122 42.342 165.740 61.466 -SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.ll AND HER.ll
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HH55
-
N-38
Institute of Social
!""" and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.7. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
,_. (Million $)
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri--Royalties but ion)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550 -1983 1456.660 1473.510 233.970 148.600 3361.839 2985.399
1984 1185.480 1205.680 268.807 15 3.200 2848.233 2543.097
1985 1233.320 1241.430 290.652 158.000 2 953.094 2637.341
1986 1342.340 1333.120 311.703 163.456 3178.609 2836.02 7
1987 1444.950 1422.340 335.936 169. 101 3400.170 3031.971
1988 1554.410 1520.010 366.208 174.940 3643.925 3248.233 -1989 1709.830 1416.400 396.883 180.981 3 733.246 3298.500
1990 1844.030 1518.280 442.387 187.231 4021.992 3553.469
1991 1806.010 1431.3 90 515.200 193.697 3977.323 3518.064
1992 1833.740 1402.980 577.910 200.385 4047.026 3580.589 ,..., 1993 1906.680 1427.870 652.012 207.305 4226.871 3741.950
1994 1943.950 1424.860 708.956 214.464 432 6.230 3831.743
1995 1863.280 1313.2 70 762.098 221.870 4195.516 3720.946
1996 1809.710 U08.220 824.414 229.532 4107.875 3646.448
1997 1901.360 1278.510 913.367 237.458 4367.691 3883.102
1998 1961.900 1288.600 1006.664 245.658 4540.820 4040.845
,_,. 1999 2008.140 1263.500 1117.553 254.141 4682.332 4170.547
2000 2079.028 1282.453 U36.847 262.917 4901.242 43 71.484
2001 2152.418 1301.690 1368.875 271.996 5135.977 4587.621
2002 222 8.398 1321.216 1514.999 281.389 5388.000 4820.398
~ 2003 2307.061 1341.034 1676.718 291.106 5658.918 5071.402
2004 2388.501 1361.150 1855.701 301.158 5950.508 5342.379
2005 2472.815 1381.5 68 205-3.791 311.558 6264.72 7 5635.2 70
r 2006 2560.106 1402.2 92 22 7 3.026 322.317 6603.734 5952.207
2007 2650.4 79 1423.326 2515.663 333.44 7 6969.910 6295.539
2008 2744.041 1444.677 2 784.202 344.962 7365.875 6667.863
2009 2840.906 1466.347 3081.404 356.874 7794.52 7 7072.051
2010 2941.191 1488.343 3410.333 369.198 "8259 .063 7511.262
~
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS, RP9S, AND RP9SGF
N-39
I I
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.7. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part B
State Government ExEenditures
(Million $)
Unre-
Stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings -tures Reinvested
1982 4601.891 399.200 42 5 .ooo -0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 486.309 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.72 9 99.148 196.738 0.000 350.000 0.500
1985 3100.347 99.145 220.577 0.000 300.000 0.500 -1986 3343.141 99.137 246.052 0.000 200.000 0.500
1987 3585.042 99.133 2 74.012 0.000 100.000 0.500
1988 3850.296 99. U9 0.000 o.ooo 460.52 8 0.500
1989 4163.891 99. 12 9 0.000 213.268 0.000 0.500
1990 5079.809 99.145 0.000 43 7.52 0 o.ooo o.ooo
1991 5168.512 99.160 0.000 483.550 o.ooo 0.000
1992 5339.059 99.180 0.000 535.147 0.000 0.000
1993 5650.840 99.199 0.000 589.865 0.000 0.000
1994 5839.738 9 9. 215 0.000 62 6.804 0.000 0.000
1995 5834.13 7 99.2 38 0.000 668.031 0.000 0.000 ·~
1996 5879.117 99.262 0.000 719.15 5 0.000 0.000
1997 6248.059 99.2 85 0.000 778.038 0.000 0.000
1998 654 7.063 99.309 0.000 841.006 0.000 0.000 -1999 6823.195 99.328 0.000 907.964 o.ooo 0.000
2000 7181.582 99.348 0.000 981.398 0.000 0.000
2001 7566.125 99.371 0.000 1061.018 0.000 0.000
2002 7977.875 99.391 0.000 1147.708 0.000 0.000
2003 8423.039 99.414 0.000 1243.982 0.000 0.000
2004 8906.191 99.438 0.000 1349.248 0.000 0.000
2005 9424.3 80 99.465 0.000 1462.763 0.000 0.000 ~
2006 9982.400 99.496 0.000 1585.600 0.000 0.000
2007 10583.060 99.531 0.000 1718.2 90 0.000 0.000
2008 1 U30.350 99.566 0.000 1861.615 0.000 0.000
2014.553 -2009 1192 7.300 99.602 0.000 0.000 0.000
2010 U676.770 99.641 0.000 2179.743 0.000 0.000
-
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3 -VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK
N-40
N-41
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.7. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part D
Po]2ulation
(thousands)
State Railbelt
1982 437.175 307.105
1983 457.836 319.767
1984 473.752 330.2 02
1985 486.24 7 339.161
1986 499.139 346.968
1987 508.393 352.211
1988 516.386 356.15 7
1989 52 3. 703 362.726
1990 535.3 00 372.777
1991 539.628 375.651
1992 556.930 386.4 95
1993 565.539 391.334
1994 569.694 396.034
1995 57 4.869 399.548
1996 581.568 404.406
1997 589.003 410.623
1998 595.7 51 416.065
1999 602.662 421.770
2000 609.944 427.836
2001 617.193 434.069
2002 624.765 440.506
2003 633.332 44 7.462
2004 642.431 454.815
2005 652.063 462.582
2006 662.219 470.822
2007 672.932 479.393
2008 684.2 79 488.460
2009 695.865 497 .685
2010 708.243 507.558
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG
N-42
Greater Greater
Anchorage Fairbanks
239.830 6 7.2 77
251.057 68.711
259.679 70.523
26 7.509 71.653
2 74.012 72.956
277.965 74.246
281.192 74.965
286.856 7 5.8 71
2 94.962 77.815
2 97.106 78.546
306.965 79.530
310.414 80.921
313.4 63 82.5 71
316.596 82.953
320.652 83.754
32 5. 755 84.868
330.211 85.854
334.902 86.869
339.822 88.015
344.842 89.227
350.063 90.443
355.785 91.678
361.811 93.004
368.173 94.409
374.911 95.912
381.913 97.480
389.318 99.142
396.820 100.865
404.874 102.685
-
-
-
-
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-
-
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-
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-
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-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.7. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part E
Households
(thousands)
State Railbelt
1982 145.453 106.572
1983 153.141 111.549
1984 159. 154 115.6 71
1985 163.950 119.24 7
1986 168.855 122.412
1987 172.483 124.601
1988 175.656 12 6.407
1989 178.581 128.991
1990 182.967 132.857
1991 184.851 134.103
1992 191. 181 138.340
1993 194.539 140.310
1994 196.363 142.239
1995 198.528 143.731
1996 2 01.210 145.719
1997 204.142 148.201
1998 2 06.839 150.3 74
1999 209.590 152.643
2000 212.464 155.042
2001 215.326 15 7.497
2002 218.2 94 160.024
2003 221.599 162.738
2004 225.084 165.5 87
2005 228.748 168.580
2006 2 32.591 171.742
2007 236.623 17 5 .015
2008 240.8 70 178.463
2009 245.202 181.963
2010 249.802 185.6 97
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES: HH, HH.IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
N-43
Greater Greater
Anchorage Fairbanks
83.678 22.894
88.038 23.511
91.425 24.246
94.516 24.731
97.134 25.279
98.794 2 5.807
100.257 2 6. 150
102.464 2 6.52 7
105.569 2 7.2 88
106.505 2 7.598
110.323 28.017
111.744 28.56 7
113.020 2 9.219
114.328 2 9.402
115.978 2 9. 741
118.006 30.195
119.777 30.597
121.63 5 31.008
123.5 73 31.469
12 5 .544 31.953
127.587 32.438
129.810 32.92 8
132.136 33.451
134.580 34.000
13 7. 15 6 34.586
139.821 35. 194
142.62 9 35.834
145.466 36.497
148.503 37.194
! I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.7. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE AVERAGE
Part F
State Households bl Age of Head
(thousands)
Head
Total Younger Head 25-29 Head 30-54 Head Older
Than 25 Than 54
1982 145.453 17. 141 2 3. 938 81.706 22.667
1983 15 3.141 18.l10 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159.154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884
1985 163.950 18.848 2 6.414 92.778 25.911
1986 168.855 19.066 26.951 95.877 26.961
1987 172.483 19.048 27.157 98.288 2 7.990
1988 175.656 18.974 2 7.2 62 100.385 2 9.035
1989 17 8.581 18.890• 2 7.325 102.262 30.104
1990 182.967 19.088 2 7. 7 94 104.821 31.2 64
1991 184.851 18.863 2 7.612 106.018 32.358
1992 191.181 19.431 2 8.633 109.460 33.657
1993 194.539 19.456 2 8.843 111.372 34.868
1994 196.363 19.2 51 28.671 112.396 36.045
1995 198.528 19.152 2 8.635 l13.485 37.257
1996 2 01.210 19.168 28.774 114.765 38.503
1997 204.142 19.238 2 9.006 l16 .12 8 39.770
1998 206.839 19.2 74 2 9.198 117.3 33 41.034
1999 209.590 19.32 5 2 9.425 118.53 6 42.304
2000 212.464 19.3 99 2 9. 702 119.7 85 43.5 78
2001 215.326 19.469 2 9.989 121.018 44.850
2002 218~294 19.554 30.316 122.305 46. 12 0
2003 221.599 19.685 30.737 123.779 47.398
2004 225.084 19.833 31.205 125.372 48.6 74
2005 228.748 19.995 31.714 12 7 .090 49.949
2006 2 32.5 91 20.169 32.2 61 128.937 51.223
2007 236.623 20.356 32.846 130.924 52.497
2008 240.8 70 20.559 33.4 73 133.067 53.772
2009 245.202 20.756 34.103 135.297 55.045
2010 249.802 20.978 34.7 87 13 7. 712 56.325
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.3 AND HER.3
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HH55
N-44
-
-
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N-45
I I
""'1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.8. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 50%
Part B
State Government ExEenditures
(Million $) -
Unre--Stricted Percent of
General General Permanent State State Permanent
Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Fund
Expendi-Balance Dividends Income Tax Programs Earnings -tures Reinvested
....
1982 4601.891 399.200 42 5.000 0.000 634.000 0.000
1983 3287.977 468.2 62 152.608 0.000 500.000 0.500
1984 3389.373 98.406 196.387 0.000 350.000 0.500 -1985 3110.568 98.402 220.325 0.000 300.000 0.500
1986 333 7.280 98.398 245.765 0.000 200.000 0.500
1987 3537.842 98.3 91 273.609 0.000 100.000 0.500
1988 3732.573 98.38 7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500 -
1989 4001.927 98.3 91 0.000 213.199 0.000 0.500
1990 4 769.551 98.406 0.000 435.587 0.000 0.000
1991 4623.320 98.410 0.000 478.524 0.000 0.000 -1992 4662.992 98.42 6 0.000 527.755 0.000 0.000
1993 4 777.902 98.445 0.000 580.122 0.000 0.000
1994 4868.406 98.45 7 0.000 614.701 0.000 0.000 -1995 4848.7 77 98.4 77 0.000 654.437 0.000 0.000
1996 4828.109 98.496 0.000 704.480 0.000 0.000 ' '
1997 5044.152 98.516 0.000 761.7 52 0.000 0.000
1998 5209.805 98.539 0.000 822.762 0.000 0.000 -,
1999 5353.863 98.555 0.000 887.839 0.000 0.000
2000 5552.078 98.570 0.000 959.2 71 0.000 0.000
2001 5764.133 98.5 94 0.000 1036.618 0.000 0.000 .....
2002 5989.840 98.617 0.000 112 0.812 0.000 0.000
2003 6234.121 98.641 0.000 1214.3 89 0.000 0.000
2004 6499.957 98.664 0.000 1316.726 0.000 0.000
2005 6 782.723 98.688 0.000 1427.049 0.000 0.000 -
2006 7085.309 98.719 0.000 1546.408 0.000 0.000
2007 . 7408.457 98.7 50 0.000 1675.305 0.000 0.000
2008 7753.820 98.781 o.ooo 1814.485 0.000 0.000 -2009 8121.906 98.816 0.000 1962.965 0.000 0.000
2010 8512.801 98.852 0.000 212 3.280 0.000 0.000
~
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES: EXGFBM, BALGF, EXTRNS, RTIS, EXSUBS, AND EXPFBAK
-N-46
-
-
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~
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-
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I
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.8. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 50%
Part C
Em:elo~ent
(thousands)
State
No n-Ag State Railbelt
Wage and Total Total
Salary
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033
1983 202.237 243.067 159.14 7
1984 205.900 246.981 162.257
1985 212.854 254.400 166.610
1986 220. U9 262.164 170.658
1987 224.095 2 66.411 172.2 71
1988 227.965 2 70.545 174.417
1989 229.526 272.241 175.882
1990 234.580 2 77.633 178.556
1991 231.427 2 74.2 92 177.974
1992 243.917 287.612 183.719
1993 243.246 286.923 184.637
1994 241.702 285.312 184.321
1995 242.914 286.643 185.903
1996 245.319 289.256 18 7. 797
1997 248. 113 2 92.2 98 190.2 93
1998 250.089 294.486 192.486
1999 252.485 2 97.142 194.868
2000 255.219 300.109 197.460
2001 257.921 302.989 200. 117
2002 260.886 306.151 202.956
2003 264.715 310.2 34 206.135
2004 268.805 314.596 209.63 7
2005 2 73.226 319.313 213.403
2006 277.890 324.290 217.417
2007 282.812 329.544 221.634
2008 288.049 335.136 22 6 .on
2009 2 93.2 06 340.642 230.618
2010 2 98.868 346.691 235.394
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
N-47
Greater Greater
Anchorage Fairbanks
Total Total
u 0.533 33.500
12 5.2 21 33.927
u 7.851 34.406
131.710 34.900
135.073 35.585
136.322 35.949
138.108 36.309
139.489 36.392
141.785 36.771
141.171 36.804
146.411 37.308
146.865 37.772
146.40 7 37.915'
147.742 38.161
149.338 38.459
151.420 38.8 74
153.216 39.270
155. 189 39.679
157.309 40.151
159.469 40.648
161.786 41.169
164.422 41.713
16 7.301 42.336
170.393 43.010
173.681 43.735
177.128 44.506
180.757 45.315
184.444 46.174
188.34 7 4 7.048
i I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.8. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 50%
Part D
Poeulation
(thousands)
Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage
1982 437.175 307.105
1983 457.836 319.767
1984 473.750 330.199
1985 486.32 7 339.204
1986 499.149 346.988
1987 508.054 352.021
1988 516.259 356.992
1989 52 3.255 363.345
1990 533.184 371.539
1991 535.306 372.958
1992 550.842 382.528
1993 557.199 385.835
1994 559.519 389.212
1995 563.52 9 391.838
1996 569.216 395.991
1997 575.498 401.438
1998 581.204 406. 133
1999 587.213 411.184
2000 593.612 416.622
2001 599.998 422.232
2002 606.741 428.069
2003 614.511 434.441
2004 622.832 441.222
2005 631.699 448.422
2006 641.101 456.103
2007 651.071 464.117
2008 661.6 76 472.628
2009 672.544 481.306
2010 684. 180 490.620
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG
N-48
239.830
251.057
259.677
267.539
2 74.031
2 77.833
2 81.952
287.469
2 94.078
2 95. 108
303.9 78
306.233
308.219
310.62 8
314. 124
318.62 8
322.491
326.660
331.082
335.608
340.3 51
345.608
351.177
35 7.087
363.3 76
369.933
376.894
383.955
391.560
Greater
Fairbanks
6 7.2 77
68.711
70.523
71.666
72.957
74.190
7 5.041
75.877
77.461
77.850
78.551
79.602
80.994
81.210
81.868
82.810
83.642
84.524
85.540
86.625
8 7. 718
88.834
90.045
91.336
92.72 7
94. 184
95.735
97.352
99.060
....
-
....
....
-I
-
-
~
~
....
....
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.8. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 50%
Part E
Households
(thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
!"'""' 1982 145.453 106.5 72 83.6 78 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 2 3.511
1984 159.153 115.670 91.424 24.246 -1985 163o978 119o262 94o52 7 24o 736
1986 168o859 122 o419 97 ol40 25o2 79
1987 l72o366 124.531 98o 745 25 0 786
1988 17 5. 612 126o6 75 lOOo 505 2 6o 171
1989 17 8o42 6 12 9.182 102o659 26o522
1990 182 o2 37 132o405 105.248 2 7.15 7
1991 183o359 133.124 105 0 783 2 7 o341
1992 189o0 75 136o903 109.246 27o657
1993 191.650 138o317 110o236 2 8 o082
1994 192o832 139.766 111.128 28o638 -1995 194.582 140.932 112 ol71 28.761
1996 196.900 142.657 113.612 2 9.046
1997 199 o419 144o852 115o4l7 29.435
1998 20lo739 146.745 116o 967 2 9. 778
!"""" 1999 204ol5 7 148 0 765 ll8o62 7 30o138
2000 2 06o 705 150o923 12 Oo3 75 30o548
2001 209o245 153.138 122 ol56 30o983
!!"""' 2002 211.902 155o433 124o013 31.419
2003 214.904 157 o918 126.055 31.863
2004 218.091 160.541 12 8.202 32.339
2005 221.462
!!"""' 163.310 130.46 7 32o843
2006 225.013 166.249 132 0 865 33o384
2007 228.756 169.299 135o353 . 33.946
2008 232.714 172.525 137.983 34.542
2009 236.763 175.804 140.643 35.161
2010 241.074 179.313 143.500 35.813
~"""
I
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
,.,... VARIABLES: HH, HH. IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
N-49
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.8. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 50%
Part F
State Households bl A~e of Head
(thousands)
Head
Total Younger Head 25-29 Head 30-54 Head Older
Than 25 Than 54
1982 145.453 17.141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 2 3.816
1984 159.153 18.624 25.919 89.725 24.884
1985 163.978 18.853 26.421 92.792 2 5.912
1986 168.859 19.066 26.952 95.880 26.961
1987 172.366 19.02 7 27.127 98.22 7 2 7.986
1988 17 5. 612 18.968 2 7.2 52 100.358 2 9.033
1989 17 8.426 18.866 27.287 102.17 5 30.098
1990 182.2 37 18.9 69 2 7.610 104.424 31.2 34
1991 183.359 18.62 9 27.241 105.191 32.297
1992 189.0 75 19.121 2 8.12 9 108.2 58 33.566
1993 191.650 19.049 28.170 109.692 34.739
1994 192.832 18.7 7 9 27.878 110.2 97 35.879
1995 194.582 18.655 2 7. 789 111.081 3 7 .05 7
1996 196.900 18.654 2 7.890 112.089 38.267
1997 199.419 18.695 2 8.072 113.161 39.490
1998 201.739 18.708 28.223 114.100 40.708
1999 204.157 18.742 2 8.421 115.067 41.92 7
2000 206.705 18.7 98 28.670 116.092 43.14 7
2001 209.245 18.849 2 8.92 7 117.110 44.359
2002 211.902 18.917 29.225 118.195 45.566
2003 214.904 19.032 2 9.618 119.479 46.775
2004 218.091 19.164 30.058 120.889 47.981
2005 221.462 19.310 30.538 12 2.433 49.181
2006 225.013 19.469 31.056 124.111 50.3 77
2007 228.756 19.641 31.610 125.934 51.570
2008 232.714 19.830 32.2 06 12 7. 917 52.7 62
2009 236.763 20.015 32.806 129.993 53.950
2010 241.074 20.2 23 33.457 132.2 52 5 s. 143
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.9 AND HER.9
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HH55
N-50
-
-
-
-
-
-
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-
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
(Million $)
Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri-
Royalties but ion)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 3570.550
1983 1397.200 1437.120 228.191 148.600 3260.211 2898.636
1984 1085.640 1105.560 246.485 153.200 262 5.951 2345.775
1985 1092.300 1102.2 30 258.062 158.000 2640.2 83 ~359.785
1986 1165.840 1165.840 2 72.590 163.456 2795.716 2497.258
1987 1213.960 1194.380 282.095 169.101 2887.3 79 2576.928
1988 1261.620 1261.620 303.955 174.940 3030.492 2707.998
1989 1356.640 1112.640 311.768 180.981 2 991.180 2644.733
1990 128 7.000 1033.500 301.135 187.231 2838.930 2509.664
1991 116 7.600 875.700 315.190 193.697 2583.214 2283.557
1992 112 7.520 816.480 336.321 200.385 2512.718 2222.835
1993 1068.100 737.960 336.977 207.305 2383.346 2108.070
1994 100 8.800 669.300 333.018 214.464 2259.583 1998.883
1995 949.620 639.540 371.12 9 221.870 2217.159 1971.004
19-96 891.480 513.570 350.428 22 9.532 2021.010 1789.139
1997 891.480 513.570 366.894 237.458 2046.402 1814.2 81
1998 891.480 513.570 401.205 245.658 2089.912 1857.542
1999 891.480 494.190 437.106 254.141 2115.917 1883.2 97
2000 891.480 487.765 470.420 262.917 2152.583 1919.712
2001 891.480 481.424 506.2 72 2 71.996 2192.173 1959.053
2002 891.480 475.166 544.858 281.389 2234.893 2001.522
2003 891.480 468.988 586.384 291.106 2280.958 204 7.338
2004 891.480 462.891 631.075 301.158 2330.605 2096.735
2005 891.480 456.874 679.173 311.558 2384.084 2149.964
2006 891.480 450.934 730.936 322.317 2441.66 7 2207.297
2007 891.480 445.072 786.644 333.447 2503.643 2269.023
2008 891.480 439.286 846.598 344.962 2570.325 2335.455
2009 891.480 433.5 75 911.121 356.874 2642.050 2406.930
2010 891.480 42 7.938 980.562 369.198 2719.178 2483.808
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.10
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS, RP9S, AND RP9SGF
N-51
N-52
-
-
-
II""'
-
-
!"""
-
f"'"'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%
Part C
Emelo~ent
(thousands)
State
No n-Ag State Railbelt Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage
Salary
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033
1983 202.2 37 243.067 159.14 7
1984 205.898 246.979 162.255
1985 210.382 251.771 165.005
1986 216.369 258.164 168.030
1987 219.391 2 61.406 168.946
1988 222.773 265.021 170.703
1989 223.705 2 66.045 171.722
1990 22 7.346 269.932 17 3.452
1991 223.998 266.385 172.640
1992 236.533 279.749 178.402
1993 235.556 278.733 179. 12 0
1994 233.54 7 2 76.62 7 178.479
1995 235.158 2 78.384 180.284
1996 237.669 281.108 182.274
1997 240.468 284.154 184.771
1998 242.718 286.632 187.12 8
1999 245.504 289.703 189.769
2000 248.530 292.980 192.563
2001 251.482 296.126 195.389
2002 254.687 299.542 198.389
2003 258.7 37 303.860 201.717
2004 263.021 308.428 205.348
2005 2 67.615 313.32 7 209.228
2006 2 72.42 5 318.459 213.336
2007 2 77.4 74 323.846 217.633
2008 282.817 32 9.549 222.135
2009 288.0.60 335. 14 7 226.733
2010 293.792 341.269 231.546
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.lO AND HER.lO
VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
N-53
Total
120.533
125.221
12 7.849
130.511
133.060
133.7 59
135.228
136.2 61
137.841
137.023
142.269
142.5 73
141.864
143.355
145.02 9
14 7.112
149.02 8
151.198
153.473
155.763
158.204
160.953
163.931
167.109
170.469
173.975
177.652
181.376
185.306
Greater
Fairbanks
Total
33.500
33.927
34.405
34.494
34.970
35.187
35.475
35.462
35.611
35.617
36. 133
36.548
36.615
36.929
3 7.245
37.659
38.100
38.572
39.090
39.626
40.185
40.7 64
41.418
42. 119
42.867
43.658
44.483
45.356
46.241
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research -MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30% -
Part D
Po u1ation
thousands) -
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 437.175 307.105 239.830 6 7.2 77
1983 457.836 319.767 251.057 68.711
1984 473.747 330.197 259.675 70.522
1985 483.812 337.814 266.557 71.25 7
1986 494.582 343.998 271.775 72.224
1987 501.725 347.784 274.588 73.197
1988 508.614 351.775 277.917 73.858
1989 514.242 357.214 282.721 74.494 -
1990 522.041 364.097 2 88.349 7 5. 748
1991 52 3.050 364.573 288.595 75.978
1992 537.925 3 73.654 2 97.067 76.588 -1993 543.329 376.343 2 98.846 77.497
1994 544.5 64 3 79.002 300.2 74 78.728
1995 548.379 381.365 302.438 78.928 -1996 553.758 385.344 305.800 79.545
1997 559.688 390.546 310.111 80.436
1998 565.359 395.149 313.882 81.2 68
1999 571.535 400.2 71 318.090 82.181 .....,
2000 5 78. 103 405.802 322.577 83.226
2001 584.683 411.520 32 7.179 84.341
2002 591.664 417.493 332.022 85.4 71 -2003 599.702 424.024 337.396 86.628
2004 608.314 430.982 343.098 87.884
2005 617.487 438.370 349.149 89.221
2006 627.202 446.244 355.586 90.659
2007 63 7.486 454.454 362.291 92.163
2008 648.399 463.156 369.396 93.760
2009 659.563 472.016 376.596 95.420
2010 671.4 71 481.497 384.32 7 97.170
-
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.10
VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG -
· N-54 -
1"""1
-
-
-
-
-
I""'
I
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30%
Part E
Households
(thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 145.453 106.5 72 83.678 22.894
1983 153.141 111.549 88.038 2 3.511
1984 159.152 115.669 91.423 24.246
1985 163.108 118.748 94.165 24.583
1986 167.277 121.333 96.324 2 5.009
1987 170.170 122.994 97.573 25.421
1988 172.954 124.7 84 99.048 2 5. 736
1989 175.287 u6.955 100.941 2 6.014
1990 178.353 12 9.695 103.170 2 6.525
1991 179.076 130.070 103.42 0 26.651
1992 184.548 133.664 106.732 2 6. 9 32
1993 186.777 134.843 107.541 27.302
1994 187.566 136.019 108.222 27.797
1995 189.226 13 7.079 109.168 27.911
1996 191.415 138.725 110.54 7 28.178
1997 193.788 140.813 112.269 2 8.545
1998 196.069 142.657 113.772 2 8.884
1999 198.519 144.685 115.432 2 9.254
2000 2 01.099 146.858 117. 188 29.670
2001 203.678 149.093 118.981 30.112
2002 206.391 151.418 120.860 30.558
2003 209.460 153.941 122.92 8 31.013
2004 212.722 156.610 12 5. 108 31.502
2005 216.174 159.42 9 u 7.409 32.020
2006 219.810 162.421 129.847 32.574
2007 223.639 165.525 132.375 33.150
2008 227.684 168.804 135.044 33.760
2009 231.816 172.135 . 137.743 34.392
2010 236.203 175.691 140.634 35.057
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.lO
VARIABLES: HH, HH.IR, HH.AG, AND HH.FG
N-55
I I
"""'
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.9. SIMULATION CASE: DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 30% -
Part F
State Households bi A~e of Head
(thousands) -
Head -Total Younger Head 25-29 Head 30-54 Head Older
Than 25 Than 54
~
1982 145.453 17. 141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.l10 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159.152 18.624 25.919 89.725 24.884
1985 163.108 18.700 26.196 92.335 25.878
1986 167.277 18.807 26.558 95.015 2 6.897
1987 170.170 18.690 26.601 96.985 27.893
1988 172.954 18.5 87 2 6.644 98.808 2 8. 915 -
1989 17 5.287 18.439 2 6.597 100.303 2 9.949
1990 178.353 18.452 2 6. 773 102.088 31.040
1991 17 9.076 18.089 2 6. 35 7 102.565 32.066 ~
1992 184.548 18.581 2 7.2 39 105.42 9 33.2 99
1993 186.777 18.487 2 7.246 106.618 34.42 8
1994 187.566 18.186 26.905 106.959 35.517
1995 189.226 18.081 2 6.84 7 107.64 7 36.650
1996 191.415 18.087 2 6.964 108.553 37.811
1997 193.788 18.U8 2 7.152 109.52 7 38.981
1998 196.069 18.15 6 2 7.334 110.434 40. 145 -1999 198.519 18.213 27.575 111.42 0 41.312
2000 201.099 18.2 87 27.860 112.474 42.4 77
2001 203.678 18.356 28.151 l13.537 43.634 ~
2002 206.391 18.441 28.481 114.683 44.786
2003 209.460 18.573 28.906 116.040 45.941
2004 212.722 18.722 29.374 l17.533 47.093
2005 216.174 18.884 2 9.882 l19.165 48.242
2006 219.810 19.059 30.425 120.937 49.3 89
2007 223.639 19.247 31.003 122.855 50.534
2008 227.684 19.450 31.619 124.933 51.682 -2009 231.816 19.649 32.238 127.101 52.828
2010 236.203 19.8 70 32.904 U9.448 53.981 -
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.10 AND HER.lO
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HH55 -
-
N-56
-
Institute of Social -and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
I""'\ TABLE N.lO. SIMULATION CASE: DRI JUNE OIL PRICE
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues
"""' (Million $)
"""' Total to
Total General
Including Fund (Net
Severance Corporate Property Bonuses of
I""" Royalties Taxes Income Taxes and Permanent
Taxes Federal Fund
Shared Contri--Royalties but ion)
1982 1530.000 1590.000 668.900 142.700 3960.200 35 70.550
1983 1457.689 1466.341 232.831 148.600 3354.561 2 977.864
1984 12 74.960 1307.848 2 91.585 15 3.200 3062.659 2 735.153
1985 1622.790 1624.002 380.222 158.000 3814.706 3401.586
1986 1968.2 74 1937.369 452.985 163.456 4550.070 4051.005
1987 2351.861 22 91.5 65 541.234 169.101 5381.598 4786.668
1988 2679.573 2195.610 52 8. 976 174.940 5607.453 4930.469 -1989 3131.633 2563.191 718.220 180.981 662 3.172 5832.973
I 1990 3568.237 2902.565 845.732 18 7.2 31 7533.824 6634.246
1991 3561.764 2 791.625 1004.789 193.697 7582.895 6684.695
1992 367 5.249 2787.725 1148.309 200.385 7843.676 6916.859
"""' 1993 3867.240 2879.209 1314.741 207.305 8301.492 732 6.430
1994 4077.600 2 971.692 147 8.601 214.464 8776.352 7748.449
1995 3915.632 2751.747 1596.855 221.870 8521.102 7533.441
1996 3817.288 2546.900 173 7.845 229.532 8367.563 7404.238
1997 4028.878 2 711.620 193 7.181 2 37.458 8952.133 7935.660
1998 4172.879 2748.733 2147.331 245.658 9352.590 8299.871
1999 4279.906 2707.357 2 394.630 254.141 9675.030 8595.305
2000 4446.820 2764.211 2665.913 262.917 10179.860 9058.150
2001 4620.2 38 2822.2 59 2967.929 2 71.996 10723.420 9558.110
2002 4800.426 2881.526 3304.160 281.389 11309 •490 10098.880
2003 4987.637 2942.038 3678.481 2 91. 106 11942.2 60 10684.600
2004 5182.152 3003.820 4095.210 301.158 1262 6.330 11319.790
2005 5384.2 54 3066.900 4559.148 311.558 13366.860 12009.540
2006 5594.234 3131.304 507 5.645 322.317 14169.500 12 759.440
2007 5812.406 3197.061 5650.656 333.447 15040.5 70 13575.710
2008 6039.086 3264.199 6290.809 344.962 15987.050 14465.280
2009 62 74.605 3332.747 7003.484 356.874 17016.710 15435.800
2010 6519.313 3402.734 7796.898 369.198 18138.140 16495.810
,...,.,
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l3 AND HER.l3
VARIABLES: RPRY, RPTS, RTCSPX, RPPS, RP9S, AND RP9SGF -
N-57
--N-58
r-
. I"""
~
,-
.....
,...
-
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.lO. SIMULATION CASE: DRI JUNE OIL PRICE
Part C
Employment
(thousands)
State
No n-Ag State Railbelt Greater Greater
Wage and Total Total Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Total Total
1982 192.903 231.984 154.033 120.533 33.500
1983 202.2 37 243.067 159.14 7 125.221 33.92 7
1984 205.903 246.984 162.259 127.853 34.406
1985 216.599 258.382 169.186 133.660 35.526
1986 225.497 267.875 174.803 138.312 36.492
1987 230.826 273.574 177.407 140.341 3 7.066
1988 234.683 2 77.697 17 9.445 142.084 37.361
1989 238.437 281.728 182.3 70 144.634 3 7. 7 36
1990 245.796 289.578 186.951 148.495 38.456
1991 246.117 289.936 188.872 149.836 39.035
1992 263.377 308.354 198.185 15 7 .915 40.2 70
1993 266.931 312.170 202.238 160.829 41.410
1994 269.483 314.925 204.957 16 2. 7 57 42.201
1995 2 75.114 320.974 209.761 166.611 43. 149
1996 282.004 328.378 214.959 170.801 44.158
1997 288.122 334.976 220.051 174.958 45.093
1998 293.168 340.446 224.616 17 8.642 45.974
1999 2 98.607 346.359 22 9.354 182.491 46.864
2000 304.117 352.300 234.133 186.358 47.775
2001 309.399 357.945 238.837 190.153 48.684
2002 314.863 363.787 243.671 194.06 7 49.604
2003 321.155 370.515 248.82 9 198.2 92 50.538
2004 32 7.646 377.460 2 54.280 202.737 51.543
2005 336.150 386.560 261.894 . 208.947 52.947
2006 34 5.390 396.451 270.171 215.700 54.472
2007 353.878 405.542 2 77.342 221.536 55.807
2008 362.560 414.843 284.617 22 7.454 57.164
2009 3 71.197 424.099 2 92.032 233.452 58.581
2010 380.238 433.793 299.610 239.615 59.996
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.l3 AND HER.l3
VARIABLES: EM97, EM99, M.IR, M.AG, AND M.FG
N-59
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE NolOo SIMULATION CASE: DRI JUNE OIL PRICE
Part D
Population
(thousands)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
1982 437ol75 307ol05 239o830 67o277
1983 457o836 319o767 251.057 68.711
1984 473o 753 330o2 02 2 59.6 79 70o523
1985 490o133 341o600 269o290 72o311
1986 505.862 352 0 168 2 78o066 74.102
1987 517 o417 359.044 283o324 75o721
1988 526o842 364.604 287o987 76o618
1989 536.724 372o633 294.861 77o773
1990 550o045 383.595 303 0 763 79o832
1991 557o236 388o459 307 o488 80 0 972
1992 579o521 402 0 902 320o218 82o684
1993 593o536 411o639 32 6 0 74 7 84.893
1994 603ol52 420o 12 9 332.774 87o355
1995 614.876 42 8.092 339o354 88.739
1996 628.667 437.907 347o294 90.614
1997 642.228 448.675 356 o050 92.62 5
1998 654.9 65 458.4 57 363.963 94.495
1999 667o922 468.542 372.139 96.404
2000 680.9 62 478.847 380o448 98o399
2001 693.722 489.139 388.714 100.425
2002 706.663 499.553 397.119 102.435
2003 720.513 510.446 405.999 104o448
2004 734o 791 521.685 415ol46 106.539
2005 7 51.282 535.855 426.702 109.154
2006 769o2 76 551.2 58 439.266 111.992
2007 787 o02 8 565.256 450.661 114o596
2008 805o142 579o507 462 o2 50 ll7o257
2009 82 3 o6ll 593.995 473.992 120.004
2010 842.794 609o094 486.2 63 122 o832
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.13
VARIABLES: POP, P.IR, P.AG, AND P.FG
0
N-60
~
-
-
.....,
-
-
"'*"1
-
-
-
-
N-61
'·I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.lO. SIMULATION CASE: DRI JUNE OIL PRICE
Part F
State Households b! A~e of Head
(thousands) -
Head .....
Total Younger Head 25-29 Head 30-54 Head Older
Than 25 Than 54
1982 145.453 17. 141 23.938 81.706 22.667
1983 153.141 18.110 25.128 86.087 23.816
1984 159. 154 18.624 25.919 89.726 24.884 """:· 1985 165.2 94 19.084 2 6. 762 93.484 2 5. 964
1986 171.184 19.446 2 7.530 97. 153 2 7 .ass
1987 17 5.615 19.52 5 2 7.904 100.064 28.123
1988 179.293 19.489 28.087 102.519 2 9.199 ~
1989 183.115 19.511 28.325 104.960 30.320
1990 188. 112 19.7 58 28.884 107.943 31.527
1991 191.001 19.648 28.890 109.773 32.690 -1992 199.069 20.445 30.2 82 114.249 34.094
1993 204.317 20.702 30.879 117.311 35.42 6
1994 208.060 20.712 31.078 119.532 36.7 3 7 .....
1995 212.522 20.873 31.492 122.04 7 38.111
1996 217.698 21.160 32.105 124.889 39.544
1997 222.804 21.428 32.702 12 7.672 41.002
1998 227.636 21.646 33.2 30 130.2 84 42.4 76 ....
1999 232.550 21.877 3 3. 78 7 132.910 43.977
2000 237.500 22.109 34.3 59 135.530 45.501
2001 242.360 22.323 34.913 138.084 4 7.039 -2002 247.288 22.543 35.491 140.656 48.5 97
2003 252.531 22.805 36.156 143.388 so .182
2004 257.927 23.077 36.858 146.2 04 51.786 """' 2005 264.082 2 3.448 3 7. 756 149.445 53.433
2006 270.758 23.868 38.771 153.006 55. 112
2007 277.366 2 4.245 39.740 15 6 .s 79 56.803
2008 284.108 24.614 40.718 160.2 63 58.514
2009 290.982 24.979 41.704 164.053 60.246
2010 2 98. 108 25.358 42.733 168.013 62.005 -
SOURCE: MAP MODEL OUTPUT FILES HE.13 AND HER.l3
VARIABLES: HH, HH24, HH25.29, HH30.54, AND HHSS
-
-
N-62
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.ll. SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
Part A
State Petroleum Revenues -(Million $)
Tot a 1 Inc 1. a
Bonuses and Total
Corporate Federal to
Severance Income Property Shared General
Royalties Taxes Taxes Taxes Royalties Fund
(RPRY) (RPTS) (RTCSPX) (RPPS) (RP9S) (RP9SGF)
.,...
1961 .2 0 4.2 4.2
1962 1 .2 26 26
I'"" 1963 1.1 .3 2 7.9 2 7. 9
1964 1.2 .3 14.8 14.8
1965 1.9 .3 16.3 16.3
-1966 2.8 .3 21.6 21.6
1967 4.6 • 1 21.2 21.2
1968 12.4 1.2 42.9 42.9
1969 20.2 5.6 34.4 34.4
1970 22.4 7.9 938.6 938.6
1971 27 10.5 46.3 46.3
1972 2 7.5 11.4 47 47
1973 2 6.8 12 49.3 49.3
1974 32.8 14.8 79.5 79.5
1975 44.3 2 6.6 6.6 88.3 88.3
1976 47.4 28 83.4 387 387
1977 37.7 2 3.8 139.1 473.2 469.2
1978 202.5 107.7 173 488 437.5
1979 335.1 173.8 232.6 163.4 910.4 826.5
19~0 921.6 506.2 547.5 168.9 2 607. 1 2262.3
1981 1498.5 1169.9 860.1 143 3692.9 330 7. 8 -1982 1546.5 . 1581.1 668.9 142.7 3 96 7. 8 3567.3 i
I
I""" aAlso includes reserves t·ax 1n 1976-1977.
SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE -
-
r N-63
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.ll. SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES -
Part B
State Government Ex2enditures
(Million $) .....
Percent of
Permanent
Unrestricted General Permanent State State Fund
General Fund Fund Fund Personal Subsidy Earnings
Expenditures Balance Dividends Income Tax Program Reinvested -(EXGFBM) (BALGF) (EXTRNS) (RTIS) (EXSUBS) (EXPFBAK)
.....
1961 9.8 0 10.4 0 0
1962 24.4 12.2
1963 3 7 .o 13.0
1964 90.6 20.2 13.9
1965 82.7 28.4 16.2
1966 92.3 2 9.3 19.2 ~
1967 102.2 2 3.8 22 0 7
1968 ll9.5 22.6 22.6
1969 145.7 7.4 2 5.2 ~ 1970 188.6 790.0 32.4
1971 2 70.2 836.5 35.5
1972 2 98.7 761.3 39.1 """11,
1973 340.4 644.5 43.4
1974 408.8 516.9 49.2
1975 453.3 379.3 86.9 -
1976 582.1 504.9 146.2 0
1977 685.8 668.2 210.4
ii!!IJ5;
1978 794.8 651.0 145.7
1979 949.5 684.2 117.2
1980 1172.8 1549.1 100.5 -1981 4349.5 7 821.1 0 772
1982 0 0 634 0
SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE
......
N-64
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
~ TABLE N.ll. SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
Part C
Em_eloZ!!!ent
(Thousand)
State Non-Ag. Wage and Salary
Plus Active Duty Military
Non-Ag. and Reservists
Wage and
Non-Ag. Salary Greater Greater
Wage and Plus Railbel t Anchorage Fairbanks
Salary Military Total Total Total Total
(EM97) (EM98) (EM99) (M. IR) (M.AG) (M.FG)
. -
1961 56.9 89.4 94.3
1962 58.7 91.7 97.1
1963 62.1 95.1 100.7
1964 65.4 97.8 103.8
1965 70.5 103.5 110.0 74.1 52.3 21.8
1966 7 3.2 106.4 113.5 75.3 53.5 21.8
1967 76.8 110.5 119.2 77.4 55.8 21.6
r-1968 79.8 112.4 121.1 79.3 57.2 22.1
1969 86.6 118.9 12 7.4 85.3 61.3 24.0
1970 92.5 12 3.9 133.4 88.5 64.2 24.3
1971 97.6 12 7. 5 137.2 90.8 67.1 2 3. 7
1972 104.2 135.0 145.5 93.4 70.0 2 3.4
1973 109.8 136.8 147.3 95.2 72.6 22.6
1974 12 8.2 15 3. 7 165.3 107.5 81.0 26 .s
1975 161.3 186.6 197.5 130.4 93.4 3 7. 0
1976 171.2 195.6 207.6 134.0 97.0 37.0
1977 164.1 189.1 203.3 134.9 103.0 31.9
1978 163.3 185.8 201.1 130.9 101.5 29.4
1979 166.4 189.7 2 06.1 132.0 102.7 29.3
!""" 1980 170.8 194.1 211.2
1981 183.7 207.0 224.3
1982 194.4
SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE
r
"""' I N-65
I I
-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research """~
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N.ll. SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES """
Part D
Poeu1ation
(Thousand) -
Greater Greater
State Rai1be1t Anchorage Fairbanks -(POP) (P. IR) (P .AG) (P. FG)
1960 22 6.2 140.486 97.074 43.412 -
1961 236.7
1962 242.8
1963 249.9 -1964 25 3.2 '
1965 265.2
~
1966 2 71.5
1967 2 77.9
1968 284.9
1969 294.6
1970 304.7 199.670 149.480 50.190
1971 314.4
1972 325.5
1973 333.5
1974 353.8
1975 390.0 """"
1976 411.3
1977 410.6 -1978 402.5
1979 400.6
1980 402.0 275.818 216 .065 59.753 -
-
SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE
-
N-66
F""
F""
!
.....
~
~-
I"""
I
-
r
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N .11. SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
E'art E
Households
(Thousand)
Greater Greater
State Railbelt Anchorage Fairbanks
(HH) (HH. IR) (HH.AG) (HH.FG)
1950 31.028
1960 57.2 50 3 7.062 2 6.006 11.056
1970 79.059 54.05 7 41.440 12.617
198oa 131.068 94.210 74.2 87 19.923
Note: 1980 Census areas are not exactly equivalent to 1970 Census
Divisions.
aTaken from Alaska Department of Labor, Alaska Population Overview,
1981.
SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE
N-67
I I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE N .11. SELECTED HISTORICAL DATA SERIES
Part F
State Households bz A~e of Head
(Thousand)
Head Head Head Head
Total Younger than 2 5 25 -29 30 -54 Older than
(HH) (HH24) (HH25.2 9) (HH30.54) (HH55)
19601 57.250 4.356 8.307 35.895 8.692
197o2 79.7 39 9.044 11.909 46.247 12.539
19803 131.463 15.531 23.034 73.130 19.768
11960 Census of Population, Vol. 1, Part 3, Alaska.
21970 Census of Population, Detailed Characteristics, Final
Report PC(l)-03 Alaska.
31980 Census of Population Summary Tape File 2B, Table 21
(special ISER tabulation).
N-68
54
-
~
...,
fll!ll:!lll!l
-
""'
-
-
r
I
1.
-
,...
!
APPENDIX 0
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PREVIOUS ISER STUDIES OF RAILBELT ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS
The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) has been
involved in two recent studies of railbelt electric power
requirements prior to the current study reported ·upon in this
technical documentation report. The purpose of this appendix is to
review the role of the Institute in those previous study efforts.
The first study, entitled Electric Power Consumption for the
Railbelt: A Projection of Requirements {June 1980), was prepared by
ISER for the House Power Alternatives Study Committee of the Alaska
State Legislature and the Alaska Power Authority. The study
produced the first set of projections of railbelt electricity needs
based upon analytical models. Table B (reproduced) summarizes those
projections.
The study was based upon a · set of nine state economic
projections produced by a version of the ISER MAP economic model
(including the population module). This model was similar, but not
identical, in structure to the model used in subsequent efforts,
including the current report. The nine projections were produced
using three "e~onomic scenarios" and three "fiscal scenarios."
Table C.ll (reproduced) shows the projections of population in these
nine cases.
Four addi tiona! models and modules were newly constructed and
used in the study. These included a household formation module, a
regional allocation model, a housing stock model, and an energy end-
use model. All except the housing stock model have continued to be
used in subsequent studies of railbelt electricity needs.
-
TABLE B. PROJECTED ELECTRIC UTILITY SALES AND MILITARY
PLUS SELF-SUPPLIED INDUSTRIAL NET GENERATION
(10 3 MWh) -Utility Sales
Total Military Self-Supplied
Anchorage+ Glennallen-Utility Net Industry Net,_
Year Anchorage Fairbanks Fairbanks Valdez Sales Generation Generation
1978 1,747 427 2,174 38 2,212 334 414
1980 1,907 446 2,353 37 2,390 334 414
1985 -
L 2,249 619 2,868 53 2,921 414
M 2,438 669 3,107 64 3,171 334 571
H 2,676 769 3,445 116 3,561 847 ~
M-E 2,438 669 3,107 64 3,171 571
1990 -L 2,510 666 3,176 60 3,236 414
M 2,782 742 3,524 75 3,599 334 571
H 3,249 914 4,163 119 4,282 981
M-E 2,782 742 3,524 75 3,599 571 -
1995
L 3,097 813 3,910 66 3,976 414
H 3,564 949 4,513 88 4,601 334 571
H 4,438 1,227 5,663 124 5,789 981
t1-E 3,564 949 4,513 104 4,617 571 -
2000
L 3,981 1,040 5,021 80 5,101 414
H 4,451 1,177 5,628 102 5,730 334 571
H 5,519 1,537 7,056 136 7 '192 981
H-E 4,973 1,416 6,389 136 6,525 571
......
2005
L 4,375 1,154 5,529 88 5,617 414
M 5,226 1,397 6,623 119 6,742 334 571
H 7,013 1,988 9,001 176 9,177 981
H-E 6,220 1,834 8,054 165 8,219 571
2010
L 4,807 1,277 6,084 95 6,179 414
M 6,141 1,671 7,812 140 7,952 334 571
H 8,927 2,586 11,513 223 11,736 981 ~
M-E 7,624 2,318 9,942 200 10,142 571
-L = Hinimurn economic growth M-E = Likely economic growth with shift to
M = Likely economic growth electric space heat and appliances
ll = Maximum economic growth in residential sector
Reprinted from: Electric Power Consum£tion for the Railbelt: A
Projection of Requirements (June 1980), ISER, p. ~~~.
0-2
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.....
r
J. "7 ·.: .. ~ • .}
• .i.. ·.: ··.:.· ._,1
.·•· .... "· .. ::. ~~ ..... ./ · .....
... ··.:· .~:· ' . .;
.~·.: · ... : ~ ... : ~ .. )
TABLE C.ll. POPULATION, 1980-2000
(thousands of people)
' .... , .. , ....
L.. 1::. ~::· ~· (.'~ ; __ r·r r:. ::) v 1,,'} :... ..
/. ,..., .r -• ·'· .. .,. ·~~· c; J. v ,:) ·"'t \.::.
~51 :L t ~~.::55
~j.::,5v2E1
6:;}~) t 5:?~=~
i'iE~3 ,. GH HES.GL
SCENARIO NM1ES:
....... ,., ""''<'r'-"t,;."o:.i+/-...1./
... ,, .•\ .... -"" .•
l' iJI,) y U / ,:j
.:5 ::j 0 ~· ~~~ ~~ A·
~:: •. ·:~. ~~; v ~~ ~~) :i.
421~737
:.5J.5 (• -'t3?
::j.::)6 t :26 /'
6~58 ~ :.25:-7
-•! f~!' n~,• .': ,.=. , .. .,
/ .. ~; ,;} '" ... t •'•\· t,.'j
LES.GL -Low Economic/Low Government
LES.GM -Low Economic/Moderate Government
LES.GH -Low Economic/High Government
MES.GL -Hoderate Economic/Low Government
HES.GM-Moderate Economic/Moderate Government
MES.GH -Moderate Economic/High. Government
HES.GL-High Economic/Low Government
HES.GH -High Economic/Moderate Government
HES.GH -High Economic/High Government
!:) l2 ~ ~:·'2()
~);:'0 9 '?90
.:Jt>o. o.-:*~3
Note: Values in 1980 adjusted to be the same in all cases; adjusts
for minor differences in exogenous series.
Reprinted from: Electric Power Consumption for the Railbelt: A
Projection of Requirements (June 1980), ISER, p. C.42 •
0-3
~t2:J. t 737
4~.~1 '"73"/·'
~::; :3 ~-s t =::. ~::· 0
t~ ~J .. o;f + ·~;.: C:; ~~;
i I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The current version of the household formation model is similar
in structure to the version developed for the 1980 study. The
regional allocation model utilized in that study has been completely
redesigned as the Regionalization Hodel. The end-use model has come
to be known as the RED model.
The economic projections using the ISER MAP economic model ended
in 2000, and values to 2010 were extrapolated. Four electricity
requirements projections were made and reported (Table B). State
petroleum revenues projections utilized the Alaska Department of
Revenue March 1980 forecast. Alternate revenue projections were not
utilized since the "fiscal rule" in use was based upon alternative
assumptions of the elasticity of state spending to state personal
income, and state revenues did not constitute a constraint on
spending.
The second study, done under subcontract for Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories, is entitled Alaska Economic Projections for
Estimating Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt (October
1981). This report was subsequently published in September 1982 as
Volume IX of their study entitled Railbelt Electric Power
Alternatives Study for the Office of the Governor, Division of
Policy Development and Planning and the Governor• s Policy Review
Committee.
The purpose of this study was to produce updated and refined
economic projections of railbelt activity similar in scope to those
of the earlier study. It utilized an updated version of the ISER
HAP economic model (including the population module), an updated
version of the household formation module, and the newly created
Regionalization Model. The economic and fiscal scenarios were
completely updated and documented.
ISER was not involved in the projection of electricity
requirements for this study. Battelle utilized the end-use model
previously constructed by ISER, modified and updated it, and named
it the RED model.
The report presented the results of three sets of economic
projections through the year 2000 involving various combinations of
"economic scenarios" and "fiscal rules" similar to those of the
earlier report. As before, petroleum revenues were not a constraint
on government spending. In addition, a projection was made in which
an "industrialization case" was added t9 the moderate economic
scenario, which was composed of industries thought to be responsive
to locating in Alaska if electricity prices were favorable. (ISER
also generated a projection for Battelle in which the
industrialization case was grafted onto the high economic scenario.
This was done subsequent to our written report.) The choice of
these economic projections was dictated by Battelle. In addition, a
"fiscal crisis" projection was presented which involved a projection
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of petroleum revenues less than the base case. The statewide
population projections for four of those cases are shown as
Table I. 32. An explanation of why these projections are slightly
lower than those in the earlier report were explained in the study.
0-5
·Table 1.32. Summary of Four Projections
Population
(thousands)
POP -ENDOGENOUS
1'?80
1981
1?82
.. ~ .-.... ,_
J. 7 Q.J
:i.'786
1'7'87
.i. ~~sa
1789
1. '?9~)
1 ~;· ·t .L
.1. ;?7'3
J. '7'?4
j_ ·7'?5
I .·-... -. •
J. '"" ·;.-c:'
:i. ·:_?97
1.'1'7'8
2()()0
.,.., I •
.C•LL
400.457
410.;:309
426.042
437 .. 823
45.2 •. 251
479 .. 816
3C• ~. C•C•3
513.303
31:1 ., •Li. ·7
516~·:.?~3~3
521~771
5'~"-;8 + () l·i
544 ~ 53'7'
53(). '72
36·4. 2:33
B.LL = Low-Low Projection
400.457
412. 3'75
428.251
... f-44.-492
4,-53. 27·4
498 .. 151
531.933
5·45 + 3()~;
547v669
·-:----·-.·.., Ji.~•/21.:_
5/"9. 3.~ .. 4
1::" ,,,.... r:':"' .... -"!"
...J 7 •::i + .._;.;.t..:;,
608.'7'o~
~~21 ~ 1'73'
.53·4 ~ 517·
.• ... , ·" .-. .-, ,-. 0·'·1•::>. 0 7 7
674.903
B.~Il'! = Moderate-Moderate Projection
B.IM = Industrialization Projection
B.HH = High-High Projection
B. H'i
400.457
412.616
429.36
446.752
467.662
506.492
549.615
56.~. 246
578. ?C•-'t
587.325
597.3
612.719
619.682
632. 2'7'3
6-14.51
658.299
673i>9
'Q·f --.... o •. l.-:.1"'+
708.14
727. 2·4-4
746.84:3
B.HH
400.457
411.271
429.47
448 + 58-4
472.623
C"' ~r ~ .-,.., ,
.J.l-1 ~·~~,a,;:
597.499
620.477
6-4() .117
6J6 t 47"6
671+785
710.077
---4--/...:::. ... : ... //
-~ 1:..--:'1 -•. -. ::":"" /...)/ + 7.:..._r
Reprinted from: Alaska Economic Projections for Estimating
Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt (October 1981), ISER,
p. 43.
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APPENDIX P
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM
ECONOM~~RIC MODELING BIBLIOGRAPHY
a. Books and Articles
Beharie, Nevel 0. "Fiscal Data for
Business and Economic Conditions,
Alaska,"
Vol. XII,
1975).
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Alaska Review of
No. 2 (February
Goldsmith, Oliver S. "A Personal Income Tax Simulation Model, ..
Annals of Regional Science, Vol. XIII, No. 1 (Karch 1979).
"Alaska Electrical Power Requirements--A Review and
Projection," Alaska Review of Business and Eco-nomic Conditions,
Vol. XIV, No. 2 (June 1977).
"Alaska's Revenue Forecasts and Expenditure Options,"
Alaska Review of Social and Economic Conditions, Vol. XV, No. 2
(July 1978).
"Sustainable Spending from Alaska State Revenues," Alaska
Review of Social and Economic Conditions, Vol.XX, No. 1
(February 1983).
"State Government Fiscal Policy and the Balanced Budget
Multiplier," Annals of Regional Science, forthcoming.
"Petroleum Tax Policy to Achieve Smooth Economic Growth
in Alaska," Journal of Energy and Development, Vol. V, No. 1
(Autumn 1979).
Human Resources Planning Institute. A Forecast of Industrial and
Occupational Employment in Alaska, ISER Report No. 43, 1974.
Kresge, David T.
of Business
1974).
"Alaska Economic Growth 1961-1972," Alaska Review
and Economic Conditions, Vol. XI, No. 2 (August
"Alaska's Growth to 1990," Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions, Vol. XIII, No. 1 (January 1976).
Kresge, David T.; Thomas A. Morehouse; and George W. Rogers. Issues
in Alaskan Development. Seattle: University of Washington
Press, 1977.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Kresge, David T., and Daniel A. Seiver. "Planning for a Resource
Rich Region: The Case of Alaska," American Economic Review
Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 68, No.2 (May 1978).
Kresge, David T., and Monica E. Thomas. "Estimated Gross Product
for Alaska," Alaska Review of Business and Economic Conditions,
Vol. XI, No.1 (April 1974).
Kresge, David T.; Oliver S. Goldsmith; Michael J. Scott; and
at Daniel A. Seiver. Public Policy for Regional Development,
press.
"Man in the Arctic, .. Mosaic, Vol. 7, No.3 (May-June 1976).
Morehouse, Thomas A.
Review of Business
(March 1977).
"Petroleum Development in
and Economic Conditions,
Alaska,"
Vol. XIV,
Alaska
No. 1
Porter, Edward, and Lee Huskey.
Federal OCS Leasing: The
(November 1981).
"The Regional Economic Effect of
Case of Alaska," Land Economics
Seiver, Daniel A.
of Social and
1977).
"Alaska Economic Forecast--1978," Alaska Review
Economic Conditions, Vol. XIV, No. 3 (December
"Projecting the Income Distribution in a Regional
Economy," Growth and Change, Vol. 12, No. 4 (October 1981).
"Projections of Manpower Requirements and Supplies Using
Public Use Sample Data," Review of Public Use Data, Vol. 6,
No. 1 (January 1978).
Seiver, Daniel A., and Susan R. Fison. "Alaskan Population Growth
and Movements 1960-1973." ISER Research Note, 1975.
Thomas, Monica E., and Earlene Goodwin. "Estimates of Alaska Gross
Product by Region, 1965-1973," Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions, Vol. XII, No. 1 (March 1975).
b. Papers
Goldsmith, Oliver s. "A Fiscal Model for Alaska: Structure and
Policy Applications." Western Economic Association, 1977.
"Control Theory and the Long-Run Growth Pattern of
Resource-Based Open Economies... Western Economic Association,
1978.
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"Fiscal Options and the Growth of the Alaskan Economy."
Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference, 1977.
"Future Electricity Requirements in Alaska." Western
Economic Association, 1976.
"Petroleum Tax Policy to Achieve Smooth Economic Growth
in Alaska." Pacific Northwest Regional Economics Conference,
1978.
"Projecting Electricity Requirements for Alaska." Alaska
Science Conference, 1976.
Goldsmith, Oliver S. ,
Alaskan Economy:
Conference, 1978.
and Lee Huskey. "Structural Change
The Alyeska Experience." Alaska
in the
Science
Kresge, David T. "Alaska's Growth to 1990: Policies and
Projections." Alaska Federal-State Land-Use Planning Commission
Conference, 1975.
"Regional Impacts of Federal Energy Developments."
American Economic Association Meeting, Denver, September 1980.
Kresge, David T., and Daniel A. Seiver. "The MAP Model: An
Economic/Demographic Model of Alaska." Conference on Regional/
State Modeling sponsored by National Science Foundation, 1980.
Morehouse, Thomas A. "Development of Alaska • s Petroleum Resources:
Three Scenarios." Alaska Growth Policy Council, 1975.
Scott, Michael J. "Fiscal Consequences of Energy Resource
Development: Planning for Government Services in Alaska."
Western Economic Association, June 1978.
"Some Aspects of the Economic Impact of OCS Development
in Alaska." Alaska Science Conference, 1976.
"The Growth Consequences of Alternative Mineral Leasing
Policies." Western Econ<:>mic Association, June 1977.
Seiver, Daniel A. ..Alaska Economic Forecast for 1977." Captain
Cook Hotel, 1977.
"Alaska Economic Forecast for 1978." Captatn Cook Hotel,
1978.
"Alaskan Demographic Data and Research." Northern
Demography Workshop of the Arctic Institute of North America,
1976.
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"Alaskan Economic Growth: A Regional Model with Induced
Migration." Regional Science Association, 1975.
"Projecting Income Distribution in a Regional Economy."
Population Association of America, April 1978.
"A Quarterly Model of the Alaskan Economy." Western
Economic Association, 1976.
"The Use of
Projections in Alaska."
an Econometric Model in Population
Population Association of America, 1975.
c. Reports
Alves, Willi am; Thomas Lane; Michael Scott; and Robert Childers.
"The Effects of Regional Population Growth on Hunting for
Selected Big Game Species in Southcentral Alaska 1976-2000," for
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1978.
Goldsmith, Oliver S. "Man-in-the-Arctic Program Economic Model
Documentation," for Alaska OCS Program, 1979.
"Improvements to Specification of the MAP Model," for
Alaska OCS Office of the Bureau of Land Management, 1982.
"Thinking About Alaska's Financial Future," for State of
Alaska, House Finance Committee, January 1980.
Goldsmith, 01 i ver S. , and Gordon Harrison.
Fund: An Economic and Policy Analysis."
Affairs Agency, 1982.
"Education Endowment
Alaska Legislative
Goldsmith, Oliver S., and Lee Huskey. "The Alpetco Petrochemical
Proposal: An Economic Impact Analysis," for Legislative Affairs
Agency, Alaska State Legislature, 1978.
"The Permanent Fund and the Growth of the Alaskan
Economy: Selected Studies," for Interim House Committee on the
Permanent Fund, Alaska State Legislature, 1977.
"Electric Power Consumption for the Railbelt: A
Projection of Requirements," for State of Alaska House Power
Alternatives Study Committee and Alaska Power Authority, Kay
1980.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Goldsmith, Oliver S.; John A. Kruse; and Michael J. Scott. "A
Preliminary Overview of the Economic and Social Effects of the
Proposed Northwest Gas Pipeline on Alaska," for Gulf Interstate,
Inc., 1976.
Goldsmith, Oliver S., and Thomas La,ne. "Oil and Gas Consumption in
Alaska: 1976-2000," for Alaska Department of Natural Resources,
1978.
Goldsmith, Oliver S., and Kent Miller. "Energy Consumption in
Alaska, Estimate and Forecast," for Division of Energy and Power
Development, Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic
Development, 1977.
Goldsmith, · Oliver S., and Margat>et Mogford. "The Relationship
Between the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline and State and Local
Government Expenditures," for State of Alaska, State Pipeline
Coordinator's Office, Decembet" 1980.
Goldsmith, Oliver S., and Kristina O'Connor. "Alaskan Historical
and Projected Oil and Gas Consumption," for Alaska Department of
Natural Resources, 1981.
"Oil and Gas Consumption: Present and Projected," for
State of Alaska, Royalty Oil and Gas Development Advisory Board,
1980.
Goldsmith, Olivet" S., and Edward Porter. "Alaskan Economic
Projections for Estimating Electricity Requirements for the
Railbelt," for Battelle Laboratories Northwest under contract to
the Alaska Policy Reveiw Committee, 1981.
Goldsmith, Oliver S., and Karen White. "Historical and Projected
Oil and Gas Consumption," for Alaska Department of Natural
Resources, 1983.
Huskey, Lee. "Forecast and Analysis of the Cumulative Mean Case,
Western Gulf of Alaska Impact Analysis" for Alaska OCS Studies
Program, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Alaska OCS Office, 1979.
Huskey, Lee, and Will Nebesky. "Beaufort Sea Statewide and Regional
Population and Economic Systems Impact Analysis," for Alaska OCS
Studies Program, BLM Alaska OCS Office, 1978.
"Beaufort Sea Statewide and Regional Demographic and
Economic Systems Impacts," for Alaska OCS Studies Program, BLM
Alaska OCS Office, 1981.
"Northern Gulf Petroleum Development Scenarios: Economic
and Demographic Impacts," for Alaska OCS Studies Program, BLM
Alaska OCS Office, 1979.
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"Western Gulf Petroleum Development Scenarios: Economic
and Demographic Impacts," for Alaska OCS Studies Program, BLM
Alaska OCS Office, 1979.
Huskey, Lee, and Edward Porter. "Beaufort Sea Petroleum Development
Scenarios: Economic and Demograhpic Impacts," for Alaska OCS
Studies Program, BLM Alaska OCS Office, 1978.
"Western Gulf of Alaska Statewide and Regional Population
and Economic Systems Impact Analysis," for for Alaska OCS
Studies Program, BLM Alaska OCS Office, 1979.
Huskey, Lee, and Brad Tuck. "St. George Basin Petroleum Development
Scenarios, Economic and Demographic Analysis," for" for Alaska
ocs Studies Program, BLM Alaska ocs Office, 1981.
Knapp, Gunnar; Oliver s. Goldsmith; and Brian Reeder. "Statewide
and Census Division Demographics and Economic Systems, Diapir
Field (Sale 87) Impact Analysis," for Alaska OCS Studies
Program, Bureau of Land Management OCS Office, 1983.
Knapp, Gunnar; P.J. Hill; and Edward Porter. "North Aleutian Shelf
Statewide and Regional Demographic and Economic Systems Impacts
Analysis," Alaska OCS Studies Program Technical Report No. 68,
for Bureau of Land Management OCS Office, 1982.
Knapp, Gunnar; Edward Porter; and Brian Reeder. "Navarin Basin
Statewide and Regional Demographic and Economic Systems Impacts
Forecast," Alaska OCS Studies Program Technical Report No. 78,
for Bureau of Land Management OCS Office, 1983.
Kresge, David T. "Impact on the Alaskan Economy of Alternative Gas
Pipelines," for Aerospace Corp. and U.S. Department of Interior,
1975.
Lane, Ted, and Barbara Withers. "Lower Cook Inlet Petroleum
Development Scenarios: Economic and Demographic Impacts," for
Alaska OCS Studies Program, BLM Alaska OCS Office, 1980.
Morehouse, Thomas A. "Alaska's Growth and Futur"e Choices," for
Growth Policy Council, Alaska Governor's Office, 1976.
Nebesky, Will, and Lee Huskey. "Statewide and Regional Economic and
Demographic Systems, Beaufort Sea: Impact Analysis," for Alaska
ocs Office, March 1981 (draft).
Porter, Edward. "Bering-Norton Petroleum Development Scenarios:
Economic and Demograhpic Impacts," for Alaska OCS Studies
Program, BLM Alaska OCS Office, 1980.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Kay 1983
Scott, Michael J. "Analysis of Economic and Social Impact of
Alternative Routes for the Alaska Arctic Gas Pipeline," for u.s.
Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management, 1975.
"Behavioral Aspects of the State of Alaska • s Operating
Budget 1970-77," for Legislative Affairs Agency, Alaska State
Legislature, 1978 .
"Practical Issues in Long-Term Fiscal Planning for
Alaska," for Alaska Division of Policy Development and Planning,
1977.
"Southcentral Alaska's Economy and Population, 1965-2025:
A Base Study and Projection," for Economics Task Force of
Southcentral Alaska Water Resources Study (Level B), 1978.
Seiver, Daniel A. "Migration and Population Distribution in Alaska:
1974-1990," for Joint Federal-State Land Use Planning
Commission, 1976.
Tussing, Arlon, et al. "Electric Power in Alaska 1975-1995 ," for
House Finance Committee, Alaska State Legislature, 1976.
d. MAP Results in Other Work
Goldsmith, Oliver S. Population projections for Municipality of
Anchorage, 1977.
Pernela, Lloyd, et al. "Census of Alaska Transportation," for U.S.
Department of Transportation, 1976.
Scott, Michael J.
Federal Power
Transportation
1976.
Economic impact projections incorporated by the
Commission Staff in Alaska Natural Gas
Systems, Final Environmental Statement, April
Economic impact projections for Battelle Pacific
Northwest Laboratories, appearing in W. Swift et al, Alaskan
North Slope Royalty Natural Gas: An Analysis of Needs and
Opportunities for In-State Use. Final Report to Alaska Division
of Energy and Power Development, September 1977.
Regional employment
incorporated in Tongass Land
Overview. U.S. Department of
Alaska Region, n.d. (1978).
P-7
and population projections
Management Plan--Socioeconomic
Agriculture, Forest Service,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Thomas, Wayne, et al. "Potential Barley Production in the Delta-
Clearwater Area of Alaska," for Division of Policy Development
and Planning, State of Alaska, 1977.
e. MAP Working Papers
Goldsmith, Oliver S. "Alaska Economic Multiplier Experiments with
the MAP Model," 1978.
"Comment on Relation of Nonpetroleum Revenues to Personal
Income in the MAP Model Simulation of Alpetco Impact," 1978.
"Evaluation of Economic Models and Model Changes," 1978.
"Important Economic Relationships in the Alaskan Macro-
economy," 1978.
"Local Government Fiscal Component of the MAP Statewide
Mode 1 , " 19 77 .
"Local Government Modeling," 1976.
"State Government Revenues," 1976.
"Types of Models and Analysis of Impact," 1978.
Kresge, David T. "Economic Impacts and Multipliers in the MAP
Model," 1978.
"Outlook for Changes in the Economic Status of Alaska
Natives," 1976.
"Outline of 1990 Projections Using MAP Statewide and
Regional Economic Models," 1975.
Logsdon. Charles. "Alaska Regional Cost of Living Indexes," 1976.
Porter, Edward. "The Economic Impact of Federal Energy Development
on the State of Alaska," 1977.
"Impact of Proposed Federal OCS Developments in the Gulf
of Alaska Area," 1976.
Scott, Michael J. "Estimating Economies of Scale in Alaskan
Industries." 1978.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
"MAP Expenditures Submodel for State Government Wages and
Salaries," 1976.
"MAP State Education Expenditures Model," 1976.
"Oil Pipeline Disaster Impacts," 1976.
Seiver, Daniel A. "The Di stri but ion of Earnings and Income in
Alaska," 1976.
"Projecting Manpower Requirements by Occupation Class,
Alaska: 1976-1990," 1976.
"Projecting Manpower Supplies .bY Occupation Class,
Alaska: 1976-1990," 1976.
Seiver, Daniel A., and Jack Kruse. "Who Migrates to Alaska?" 1976.
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