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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA23221- SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 1·983 ANNUAL REPORT BIG GAME STUDIES VOLUME HI MOOSE'-UPSTREAM Warren B.Ballard Jackson S.Whitman Nancy G.Tankersle.y ,',Lawrence D.Aumiller Pauline Hessing ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME Submitted to the Alaska Power Authority April 1984 DOCUMENT No.2322 ,... - - TK 111'1..) .5~ A~Lf nl!),J~11 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 1983 ANNUAL REPORT BIG GAME STUDIES VOLUME I I I.MOOSE -UPSTREAM Warren B.Ballard Jackson S.Whi tman Nancy G.Tankersley Lawrence D.Aumiller Pauline Hessing Alaska Department of Fish and Game submi tted to t.he Alaska Power Authori ty April,1984 ARLIS Alaska Resources Library &Information Services Anchorage,Alaska .... - - - ..... .- - - ANY QOES'f:IOHS OR COMMEN'fS CONCERNING THIS REPORT SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE ALASXA POWER ADTBOR:ITY StJSl:DA PROJECT 0Pl"1:0 - PREFACE In early 1980,the Alaska Department of Fish and Game contracted with the Alaska Power Authority to collect information useful in assessing .the impacts of the proposed Susitna Hydroelectric Project on moose,caribou,wolf,wolverine,black bear,brown bear and Dall sheep. The studies were broken into phases which conformed to the anticipated licensing schedule.Phase I studies,January I,1980 to June 30,1982,were intended to provide information needed to support a FERC license application.This included general studies of wildlife populations to determine how each species used the area and identify potential impact mechanisms.Phase II studies began in order to provide additional information during the anticipated 2 to 3 year period between application and final FERC approval of the liceI;lse.Belukha whales were added to the species being studied.In these annual or final reports,we are narrowing the focus of our studies to evaluate specific impact mechanisms,quantify impacts and evaluate mi tigation measures. This is the second annual report of ongoing Phase II studies.In some cases,obj ectives of Phase I were continued to provide a more complete data base.Therefore J this report is not intended as a complete assessment of the impacts of the Susi tna Hydro- electric Proj ect on the selected wildlife species. The information and conclusions contained in these reports are i.ncomplete and preliminary in nature and subject to change with further study.Therefore,information contained in these reports is not to be quoted or used in any publication without the wri tten permission of the authors. The reports are organized into the following 9 volumes: - - Volume I. Volume I I. Volume I II. Volume IV. Volume V. Volume VI. Volume VI I. Volume VI r I. Volume IX. Big Game Summary Report Moose -Downstream Moose -Upstream Caribou Wolf Black Bear and Brown Bear Wolverine Dall Sheep Belukha Whale ii - ..... ..... .- - - SUMMARY Analyses of movements of 10 adult cow moose radio-collared in a proposed experimental burn area near the Alphabet Hill revealed the presence of 3 subpopulations occupying the area--2 wintering and 1 resident.An estimated 279 and 252 moose occupied the 47,000 acre burn area in 1982 and 1983,respectively . In fall 1982,22 adult radio-collared moose wi thin the Susi tna Hydroelectric Study area were recaptured and recollared in an effort to continue movement and habitat use studies·during Phase II.Home range sizes and movements of moose during the reporting period were presented.During 1982,20 radio-collared moose crossed the Susitna River in the vicinity of the impound- ments a minimum of 42 occasions.Forty-nine percent of the crossings were initiated during the month of January,February, May and September. Based upon locations of radio-collared moose which utilize the impoundment,boundaries of impact zones were delineated.Zones were classified as primary,secondary,and tertiary.The primary zone included radio-collared moose which would be directly impacted by the project,while the secondary zone was c.omprised of moose which overlapped home ranges of moose occupying the primary zone.Population estimates based on earlier censuses ranged from approximately 1,900 to 2,600 moose which could be directly impacted by the project.A census of the area in fall 1983 provided a moose population estimate of 2,836 ±301.Moose occupied the impoundment areas more during the months of March- May than other time periods.Two hundred and ninety and 580 moose were estimated to inhabit the Watana impoundment area in spring 1982 and 1983,respectively.Moose usage of the Watana Impoundment zone was greatest during the month of March. iii - .- Habi tat use radio,-collared moose was assessed by overlapping moose locations on preliminary vegetation maps.In relation to availability,moose preferred woodland black spruce,open black spruce,closed mixed forest,and woodland white spruce types. Lakes,rock,sedge-grass tundra,sedge-shrub tundra and mat- cushion tundra were not preferred. For the Watana impoundment area on a year-round basis,elevations ranging from 2001-2200 and 2401-3000 ft.were used more by radio-collared moose while elevations ranging from 1201-1400 and in excess of 3200 ft.were used significantly less,in relation to availability.During winter and spring,elevations ranging from 1601-2000 and 2201-2800 ft.were used more than expected. Use of slopes and aspects were not random . During the reporting period a moose population dynamics model was developed and tested in an effort.to predict population trends under preproject conditions.Components of the preliminary model are presented and discussed.Comparison of projected moose population estimates based on modeling to those based on a 1983 census suggest that the model adequately represents moose popu- lations dynamics under pre-project conditions.Eventually the model will be used to test hypotheses concerning the impacts of-Susi tna Hydroelectric development on moose. A summary of project impacts on moose and ways they may affect basic population parameters are presented. - - iv ..... - .... I I TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES INTRODUCTION STUDY AREA SECTION I.PROPOSED EXPERIMENTAL BURN Introduction Methods Results SECTION II.HOME RANGE,DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENTS OF MOOSE . Radio-collaring Moose Home Range Size River Crossings Zone of Impact .,. Winter Use of Impact Zone Watana Impoundment Devil Canyon Impoundment Predictions of Severe Winters Recruitment . SECTION III.HABITAT USE .... Page iii viii .xiii 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 11 13 13 Vegetation/Habitat Selection . Use of Various Elevations,Slopes, Watana Impoundment . . . Devil Canyon Impoundment v and Aspects 13 14 16 17 TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) Page - SECTION IV.MOOSE POPULATION MODELING Introduction . . . . Population Estimates . Event 1 -Reproduction . . . Event 2 -Early Spring and Summer Mortality (Excluding Predation) Events 3,4,9 -Wolf Predation Event 5 -Brown Bear Predation Event 6 -Black Bear Predation Event 7 -Hunter Harvest . Event 8 -Winter Mortality (Excluding Predation) Project Population Model Analyses . . . GMU 13 Population Model Analyses 18 18 19 20 21 21 23 25 25 26 28 31 SECTION V.IMPACT MECHANISMS.. . . . . . . . . ...34 SECTION VI.MITIGATION.. . . . . . . . . . . . ...34 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...35 ,~ - LITERATURE CITED APPENDIX A APPENDIX B APPENDIX C APPENDIX D vi 97 100 104 140 141 - - - -- APPENDIX E APPENDIX F APPENDIX G APPENDIX H APPENDIX I APPENDIX J TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) vii Page 142 143 144 145 146 147 ..- ~, Table 1. Table 2 . Table 3. Table 4. Table 5.· LIST OF TABLES Statistics associated with capture and radio-collaring of 10 adult cow moose in April and July 1982 within the pro- posed controlled burn area . . . . . . . Results of moose census in GMU-13 proposed burn areal 24-25 March 1982 . . . . Moose census results from the GMU-13 proposed burn areal 25 and 26 March 1983 . ...... Statistics associated with recapturing radio-collared moose in the Susitna Hydroelectric Project Area of south- central Alaska during October 1982 . . . . . Susitna River crossings l and calf pro- duction and mortality of 75 radio-collared moose studied from 11 April 1980 through December 1982 in the upper Susitna River Basin of southcentral Alaska . . . . . . viii Page 36 37 38 39 41 .... - - .- - .- Table 6 . Table 7. Table 8 . Table 9. LIST OF TABLES (cont'd) Moose census results from survey during 4-9 November 1983 and population estimate for the Moose Primary Impact Zone . . . . . Area of moose habitat and moose population estimates for 3 moose impact zones associated with development of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project Snow survey data and calculations of winter severity index near the middle Susitna River,Alaska,from 1974 through February 1984 . .... Availability and moose utilization of 19 habitat types in the Susitna River Study Area from April 1980 through September 1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 49 50 51 52 - ,~ Table 10.Average monthly elevations for 74 radio-collared moose studied intermittently from October 1976 through May 1982 in the primary impact zone of the Susitna project.. . . . . . . ..... ix 53 LIST OF TABLES (cont I d) Table 11.Radio-collared moose locations at or below 2,300 ft.elevation in relation to total number of locations by month and year for moose occupying the Susitna Hydroelectric Project primary impact zone from 1976 through May 1982 . . . . . . . . . . Page 54 Table 12.Mortality rates due to winter starvation of radio-collared calf and yearling moose in the Nelchina and Susitna Riv~r Basins,1977-1982 55 Table 13.Mortality rates of adult (~2 yrs.)radio-collared cow moose due to winter starvation and unidentified mortality in the Nelchina and Susitna River Basins of southcentral Alaska from 1976-1982 . . . . Table 14.Summary of moose census data and sub- sequent population estimates for the Susitna River Study Area,November 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x 56 57 - - Table 15. Table 16. LIST OF TABLES ('cont'd) Estimates of spring moose population size,and causes and magnitude of mortality by sex and age class as determined from modeling the Susitna River Study Area moose population from 1975-76 to 1981-82 . . . . . . . . . . . . Estimates of spring moose population size, and causes and magnitude of mortality by sex and age class as determined from modeling the moose population in GMU-13 of southcentral Alaska from 1975-76 to 1981-1982 . . . . Page 58 60 Table 17.Susitna Hydroelectric Project actions and their potential effect on moose numbers,distribution and habitat in the Susitna River Study area .... Table 18.Potential impacts of Susitna Hydroelectric development on annual moose population parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi 62 63 .... - - - Fig.1. Fig.2. Fig.3. Fig.4. Fig.5. LIST OF FIGURES Boundaries of proposed control burn area in GMU-13 of southcentral Al aska ... Timing of initiation of moose crossing of the Susitna River above Devil Canyon, Alaska from April 1980 through December 1982 . . . . . . . . . . Boundaries of primary,secondary,and tertiary zones of impact for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project based upon movements of radio-qollared moose from 1976-1982 in GMU-13 of southcentral Alaska . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of winter (January,February and March)observations of radio-collared moose from 1977 through 1982 in the Nelchina and upper Susitna River Basins of south- central Alaska ..... . . . . . . . . Proportion of time spent below 2200' elevation by radio-collared moose from March 1981 to December 1983 in the middle Susitna River Basin, Alaska . . . . . . . xii Page 65 66 67 68 69 .... ..... Fig.6. Fig.7. Fig.8. Fig.9. Fig.10. LIST OF FIGURES (cont I d) Winter severity index calculations from the middle Susitna River Basin,Alaska, 1973-74 through 1982-83,based upon snow depths between 28 January and 2 March at 4 snow stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mean monthly elevations occupied by 74 radio-collared moose from October 1976 through May 1982 in the primary impact zone of the Susitna project ..... Year-round elevational usage by radio- collared moose in relatic;m to availability in the primary impact zone of the proposed Watana impoundment 1976-1982 . . . . . . . . Use of various elevations by radio-collared moose in relation to availability during January -May in the primary impact zone along the Susitna River near Watana Creek, Alaska from 1976-1982 ... . . . . . . . . Use of 3 slope classifications by radio- -collared moose in relation to availability in the primary impact zone along the Susitna River near Watana Creek,Alaska from 1976-1982 xiii Page 70 71 72 73 74 ~\ .- -,; I - - Fig.11. Fig.12. Fig.13. Fig.14. LIST OF FIGURES (cont'd) Year-round and seasonal ·use of slope aspects by radio-collared moose in relation to availibility in the primary impact zone along the Susitna River near Watana Creek,Alaska from 1976-1982 Year-round use of various elevations by radio-collared moose in relation to availability in the primary impact zone along the Susitna River near Devil Canyon,Alaska from 1976-1982 Use of various elevations by radio- collared moose from January-May in relation to availability in the primary impact zone along the Susitna River near Devil Canyon, Alaska from 1976-1982 . . . . . . . . . . . Use of 9 aspects by radio-collared moose from 1976-1982 in relation to availability in the primary impact zone along the Susitna River near Devil Canyon,Alaska . . . . . xiv Page 75 76 77 78 -I - Fig.15. Fig.16. LIST OF FIGURE,S (cont'd) Use of 3 slope classifications by radio-collared moose in relation to their availability in the primary impact zone along the Susitna River, Alaska near Devil Canyon from 1976-1982 Timing and,sequence of factors used in the models to determine the annual population dynamics of moose in the Susitna River Study Area and the entire GMU 13 in southcentra1 Alaska .... Page 79 80 r- Fig.17.Schematic diagram of Event 1 (birth) ~for the Susitna River moose model ···..81 Fig.18.Schematic diagram of Events 2 and 8 (early spring and winter mortality)for the Susitna River,.,., moose model .. . .· · ··· · · .82 -~Fig.19.Schematic diagram of Events 3, 4 and 9 (wolf predation)for the Susitna River moose model · ···· ··.83 Fig.20.Schematic diagram of Events 5"'- and 6 (brown bear and black bear predation)for the Susitna River moose model .. ... ..···· · · 84 ,....xv ,.... - Fig.21. Fig.22. Fig.23. Fig.24. Fig.25. LIST OF FIGURES (cont I d) Schematic diagram of Event 7 (hunting mortality)for the Susitna River moose model . November moose population esti- mates as derived from modeling versus composition counts for the Susitna River Study Area of southcentral Alaska,1975-1986 Fall moose population trends derived from modeling using annual composition count.data for initial population size for the Susitna River Study Area,1975-1991 . . . . . . Estimated moose calf:cow ratios derived from modeling versus calf:cow ratios obtained from annual composition counts in the Susitna River Study Area, 1975-1982 . . . . . Percent yearling bulls in moose populations each fall as determined from modeling versus composition counts for the Susitna River Study Area,1975-1982 . . . xvi Page 85 86 87 88 89 - - - - - - -I Fig.26. Fig.27. Fig.28 Fig.29. Fig.30. LIST OF FIGURES (cont'd) Annual rates of calf moose mortality due to predation and winter kill as determined from modeling the Susitna River Study Area moose population, 1975-1981 . . . ....... Annual percentyealring bull moose mortality due to several mortality factors as determined from modeling the Susitna River Study Area in southcentral Alaska,1975-1981 . . . . . Annual adult moose morta~ity rates by cause as determined from mcdeling the Susitna River Study Area moose population in southcentral Alaska, 1975-1981 Fall moose population estimates as derived from modeling versus annual composition counts for GMU-13 of southcentral Alaska,1975-1986 . Estimated annual rates of calf mortality from predation and winter kill determined from modeling the GMU-13 moose population of southcentral Alaska,1975-1981 xvii Page 90 91 92 93 94 - - - ..... ..... - .- Fig.31. Fig.32. LI ST OF FIGURES (cont'd) Annual GMU-13 adult moose mortality rates £rom 4 factors estimated from modeling,1975- 1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . Annual fall moose and wolf population trends between GMU-13 and the Susitna River Study Area of southcentral Alaska,1975-1981 . . , . . . . . . ... . xviii Page 95 96 --~---------------------...".,.""""''''''''''''"'''''"'-~====------------- """' - - INTRODUCTION Moose in the vicinity of a proposed hydroelectric project on the mainstem of the Susitna River have been under study for a number of years (Taylor and Ballard 1979).However,studies concerning the impacts of this project on moose did not begin in earnest until 1980.Moose (Alees alees)are one of the more important wildlife species which could be seriously impacted by hydro- electric development.Phase I moose studies (Ballard et 01. 1982)were directed at determining how moose use the area in and around the two proposed impoundments,determining the approximate number of moose using the area,and identifying potential impact mechanisms. Phase I I moose studies were initiated in January 1982.These studies were designed to provide r:efinement of the information gathered during Phase I studies.The principal objectives of Phase I I studies during FY83 were as follows: (1)To delineate a zone of impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Proj ect on moose. (2)To determine the number of moose using the zone of impact andhabi tat which will be altered by construction of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project during winter and early spring. (3)To determine changes in moose use of an area before and after a prescribed burn. (4)To evaluate moose use of potential mitigation lands. (5)To develop a habitat-based assessment of the current value of lands that will be lost or altered to moose. 1 ,~ As a result of studies in FY83 ,project objectives were modified as follows for FY84: (1)To determine the number of moose inhabiting the primary impact zone. (2)To determine habitat selectivity of the upstream primary impact zone Hydroelectric proj ect. moose inhabiting of the Susitna - - - (3)To determine the causes and rates of moose calf mortality. This report updates the findings presented in the Final Phase I report (Ballard et al.1982)with additional data collected from mid-August 1981 through December 1983.Because the information contained in this report treats ,only portions of continuing studies,it should not be used in scientific technical publications without the written approval of the investigators. STUDY AREA Study area boundaries are within Game Management Unit 13 (GMU 13) and contain the.middle and upper Susi tna basins.More exact boundaries were previously described (Ballard et al.1982). SECTION I.PROPOSED EXPERIMENTAL BURN INTRODUCTION Controlled burning has been frequently mentioned as a potential tool which could be used by game managers to increase the numbers-of moose on lands adjacent to or distant from the project area in an attempt to mitigate losses associated with Susi tna Hydro- electric development.Although most biologists would concur that 2 ..... .- .... ,..... fire management can be used to retard or set back plant succes- sion to maintain optimum moose habitat,information is needed to formulate a prescription which would provide the quickest and greatest benefits for moose.The magnitude and degree to which a moose population will respond to fire management is poorly under- stood. Late in Phase I studies,the Bureau of Land Management in cooper- ation with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game,proposed and began planning an experimental burn .to improve moose habitat. The proposed controlled burn area (47,000 acres)is located just south of the Alphabet Hills (Fig.1).Although the proposed burn area had been identified as important moose winter range,base- line data concerning type and intensity of use,population size, and vegetation composition was lacking.Al though the proposed burn will undoubtedly eventually improve moose winter range,the timing of the burn will occur late,enough in the year so that no regrowth of vegetation will occur.Therefore in the short term (1 winter)the burn has the potential to be detrimental to moose because winter range may be temporarily destroyed . METHODS To provide a basis for assessing the utility and efficiency of controlled burning as a mitigation measure,an attempt was made to begin acquiring baseline information in 1982 concerning num- bers of moose using the area,season of use,movement patterns, and winter moose densi ty. During April and July 1982,a total of 10 adult cow moose were captured and radio-collared within the proposed burn area. Statistics associated with the tagging programs a~e presented in I Table 1.Moose immobilized during summer generally required 13 mg etorphine hydrochloride (00-99)in combination with 300 mg xylazine hydrochloride (Rompun).As anticipated,these doses were higher than those normally used to immobilize moose during 3 fall and spring (10 cc etorphine).Higher drug'doses during summer and fall are usually necessary because moose are generally in better physical condition,than after the winter-spring period of nutri tional stress. The proposed burn was divided into 9 units and censused on 24 and 25 March 1982 and on 25-26 March 1983 using methods described by Gasaway et al.(1982)in an effort to determine winter moose densi ty prior to burning. RESULTS Preliminary movement analyses from 10 radio-collared moose suggest that 3 separate populations utilize the proposed burn area;(1)one population winters in the area and spends summer and early fall north of the Alphabet Hills and the Denali Highway;(2)another subpopulation.also winters in the area but migrates to the Oshetna River area where they remain through spring,summer,and fall;and (3)the area is also inhabited by a year-round resident population. During the 1982 census,a total of 167 moose in 139 mi 2 were counted (Table 2).These were observed from fixed-wing aircraft at an intensity of 5.2 min.jmi 2 •Based upon an intensive resurvey of 1 area which was randomly selected,we estimated that approximately 40%of the moose present had not been counted. Therefore,'the corrected March preburn moose population estimate in 1982 was 279 moose for a density of 2.0 moosejmi 2 •Results of the 1983 census of the proposed burn area are presented in Table 3.Estimates between years were comparable;279 moose in 1982 and ,252 in 1983 ..Although more moose were actually observed in 1983 than in 1982 the 1983 sightability correction factor was much lower (1.29 in 1983 versus 1.67 in 1982). 4 - .... A prescription for the burn was prepared and the burn was originally scheduled to occur in August 1982.However,because of weather conditions not conducive to burning,the experiment has been postponed twice and is now scheduled for 1984. SECTION I I.HOME RANGE,DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENTS OF MOOSE RADIO-COLLARING MOOSE Twenty-two adult moose originally captured in 1980 for Phase I studies were recollared in October 1982 to insure continued radio contact for Phase II studies.Moose captured in fall 1982 required an average of 18.5 cc etorphine hydrochloride (M-99)and 360 mg xylazine hydrochloride (Rompun)for successful immobili- zation (Table 4).Induction time ranged from 7 to 61 minutes, averaging 26.1 minutes.Drug dosages reported herein are the largest ever used on Unit 13 moos~.We suspect that the larger doses were necessary bec~use the moose were in excellent physical condi tion for thi s time of year.Between mid-August 1981 and early June 1982,62 radio-collared moose were located on 727 occasions.Including recently captured animals,radio-collared moose were located an average of 1.3 occasions/month. HOME RANGE SIZE Appendix A summarizes seasonal and total horne range sizes of radio-collared moose studied in·the Nelchina and upper Susi tna River Basins from October 1976 through early June 1982.No addi- tional subpopulations or new movement corridors were detected from data collected between mid-August 1981 to early December 1983.Considerable variation in size was noted for both seasonal and total home range sizes.Some of the variation may be attributed to an insufficient number of locations. 5 - .- Comparison of total home range size with numbers of locations for both calf and adult moose suggested considerable variation between individuals.Although weak correlations may exist, individual examination of the larger individual home ranges suggests two explanations.Larger range sizes ()700 kIn 2)for some calves were due to their dispersal away from the cow's home range.Therefore,subtraction of the area occupied while with the cow will reduce the size of the area and make them comparable wi th nondi spersing calf home ranges.However,for adults the larger <>1,100 kJn2)home ranges were primarily the result of movements during the rut (Sept.-Nov.)and/or movements in April away from wintering areas (see Appendix A moose =It's 623,635, 639, 664,668,696,707, 708,and 722 in Ballard et ale 1982). During these periods,except during migration,moose appear to move farther and more frequently than during other seasons.An additional reason for the large size of some home ranges was that the method used included high,m!=:>untainous areas (~4,OOO ft. elevation)which are rarely used . Appendix B compares the annual home range sizes for individual moose for which more than one year's data exist.Although most moose obviously utilize the same core area,the specific size of the area may vary considerably each year.Reasons for these annual differences may be numerous but we offer the following as the most likely explanations:Some migrating moose do not move each year depending upon weather conditions;some areas are only used during critical periods (for example,see one-time movement of moose 664 during severe winter 1978-79);our rate of moni- toring radio-collared moose was not always sufficient to detect occupation of areas utilized for short periods of time;some unknown annual proportion of the moose population colonizes new areas and subsequently occupies different home ranges (for example,see permanent movement of moose 725 to area east of the Copper River). 6 - RIVER CROSSINGS During 1982,20 radio-collared moose crossed the Susitna River in the area of the proposed impoundments on 42 occasions bringing the total number of documented crossings since April 1980 to 82 (Table 5).During January,February,May,and September 1982, 49%of the river crossings were initiated (Fig.2).There did not appear to be any consi stent season for individual moose to cross the river but thi s was probably the result of relatively infrequent monitoring.Undoubtedly the frequency of river crossings by moose is much greater than what our data suggest. Addi tional crossings were observed in 1983 but these were not included in this report. ZONE OF IMPACT Radio-collared moose which either ~easonally or on a year-round basis occupy areas to be directly altered by operation and main- tenance of both the Watana and Devi 1 Canyon Impoundments were used to delineate an area where moose would be directly impacted. Home range polygons were determined for each moose which utilizes either the impoundment or its facilities,and the outermost borders of all polygons were used to delineate the border of the primary impact zone (Fig.3).Home range polygons were computed by connecting outermost point locations (Mohr 1947)and only for those moose which had an excess of 4 location points.Similarly, secondary and tertiary zones of impact were determined by using the outer edges of moose home range polygons which overlap moose which will be directly impacted.The latter two zones were delineated on the assumption that moose displaced from the primary zone will compete with moose occupying the secondary and tertiary zones.Data now being collected concerning range conditions should facilitate a more comprehensive overview of the predicted competition which we assume will result from inundation. 7 .- ..... The primary impact zone was censused in fall 1983 using quadrant sampling techniques (Gasaway et ~.1982)in an effort to refine earlier moose population estimates.Boundaries of individual sample areas were identical to those used during the fall 1980 census and therefore the area censused did not conform exactly to the boundaries of the impact zone which were based on movements of radio-collared moose.Table 6 summarizes the results of the fall 1983 census of the primary moose impact zone.Average moose densi ties in the area ranged from 0.6 moose/mi 2 in low density stratum to 3.5 moose/mi 2 in high density areas.The total fall population was estimated at 2,836 ±301 moose. Table 7 compares 4 separate population estimates (3 based on 1980 census data and 1 based on 1983 census data)of the numbers of moose occupying the primary impact zone.The first method was similar to the preliminary analysis provided by Ballard et al. (1982).The proportion of radio-co;Llared moose occurring wi thin the impoundment zone was compared ~o the total number of radio- collared moose wi thin the 1980 census boundary and was then extrapolated to the total population estimate.Although such an estimate (1,913 moose)could have potentially been biased because of capture location,over half of the radio-collared moose included in the method were captured for other studies,and thus were located away from the project area.Therefore any biases should have been minimized.Method 2 applied the average moose densi ty estimate derived from censusing moose count areas 7 and 14 during fall 1980 (see Ballard et al.1982)to the amount of moose habitat contained within the primary zone.Method 3 utilized the actual count area boundaries used for the 1980 census.Each count area had been stratified into one of 4 moose densi ties (none,low,medium,and high)and its area had been determined.The moose density estimates for each stratum in 1980 were then applied to the amount of each type occurring within the primary zone.Method 4 consisted of the actual 1983 census estimate. 8 .... - The most recent census provided the largest estimate of moose occupying the impact zone.This was not particularly surprising since moose modeling exercises (see Moose Population Modeling) suggest the moose population has increased since 1980.Also the earlier estimates were based on extrapolations of 1980 census data and not direct counts of the area. Using methods similar to those of method =lt2 we have estimated that there are approximately 23,000 moose in GMU-13.Therefore, over 10%of the moose in the Unit could be impacted by the proposal proj ect. WINTER USE OF THE IMPACT ZONE Winter locations of moose found within the impact zone (Fig.4) were used to delineate the approximate boundaries of an area which should be intensively census.ed during severe winter con- di tion,s in future years. Because moose appeared to concentrate in the Watana impoundment area during March in both 1982 and 1983,an attempt was made to census the Watana impoundment area out to 1/4 mile from the 2,200 ft.high pool level.The 1982 census was conducted on 25 March and the 1983 census was conducted on 28 March.Con- ditions for both censuses were poor due to complete but old snow cover,overcast light conditions,and moderate air turbulence. No census was conducted in the Devil Canyon area during 1982. Watana Impoundment A total of 4.4 (2.73 min/mi 2 )and 6.6 (4.09 min/mi 2 )hours were spent surveying 96.8 mi 2 of habitat (river water area excluded) in the proposed Watana Impoundment area during 1982 and 1983 I respecti vely.A sightabi Ii ty correction factor obtained from censusing the proposed Alphabet Hills burn area (Fig.1)in 1982 was utilized which resulted in a population estimate of 290 moose 9 - - in 1982.The latter estimate was 7 times greater than the number of moose which were estimated within the same area in March 1981 (Ballard et al.1982).However,in 1983 3.4 mi 2 of the Impound- ment area was randomly selected and recensused at an intensity of 12 minutes/mi 2 in an effort to estimate the number of moose mi ssed during the less intensive survey.The more intensive search research resulted in a sightability correction factor of 2.6 which when applied to the numbers of moose observed during the less intensive count (161 moose)provided a total 1983 popu- lation estimate of 580 moose.The relatively high correction factor in 1983 was also substantiated by our observing only 2 of 7 radio-collared moose known to be present in the impoundment area during the count. From 14 February through 24 May 1983,30 radio-collared moose which have a history of utilizing the impoundment areas during some portions of the year (Ballar:-d et al.1982)were located twice weekly to determine habitat use and to estimate the proportion of time these moose utilized the area to be inundated. By 25 January 1983,20%of the intensively monitored moose were in the impoundments.Use of the impoundment areas increased in March when 10 of the intensively monitored moose were in the impoundment zone.Use declined after March and by mid-May only 7-10%of the moose were located wi thin the impoundment.Based upon the March 1983 moose population estimate of 580 moose and the proportion of radio-collared moose actually in the impoundment zone we estimate that 193-278 moose were below high pool level. Annual moose usage by month of the Watana impoundment zone from 1981-1983 is depicted in Figure 5.During March of each year,33 to 48%of the locations of radio-collared moose were in areas which would be inundated by the Watana impoundment (Fig.5). 10 - ..... - - - Devi 1 Canyon Impoundment On 31 March 1983 a total of 2.1 hours (4.1 minjmi 2 )was spent censusing a 30 mi 2 area within ~of the high pool level of the Devils Canyon Impoundment.A total of 14 moose were observed.A 1.7 mi 2 area was recounted at an intensity of 12.4 minjmi 2 in an effort to generate a sightabili ty correction factor.No addi- tional moose were recounted,however only 1 of 2 radio-collared moose known to be wi thin the area was observed during the less intensive count.Even if half the moose were missed however,the counts indicate that the Devil Canyon Impoundment area is poorer moose habitat than that found in the Watana Impoundment.Only 2 moose were observed in a similar census of the area in March 1981 (Ballard et 01.1982). PREDICTION OF SEVERE WINTERS Because moose have not been monitored during a truly severe winter and because we believe this is necessary to fully assess impacts of the proposed project,we have attempted to develop the capabili ty to predict winter severity in early winter.These predictions will be used to determine when special studies should be initiated to determine the importance of the project area to moose during a severe winter. To explore the feasibility of developing an index as to the relative severity of winter conditions in the middle Susi tna River Basin,snow survey data from spring 1974 to present were analyzed.Before 1981,snow course sites were limited to only 8 areas.Fifteen additional survey sites were added after this. However,because historical data were lacking from these new sites,only data from the original 8 survey sites were investi- gated and used for this analysis. 11 - .- - - - Four of the 8 snow course sites were selected for analysis based upon their proximity to the moose study area,giving a fairly representative overview of the snowfall pattern.From these data,a method was developed for indexing the relative severity of past winters,and,more importantly,for predicting by early March,what the current years relative severi ty would be. In terms of moose being victims of winter-kill,we have assumed that the amount of snow cover during spring (March-May)is more important that early-and mid-winter snow depths.We also assumed that the main factor leading to malnouri shment among moose is snow depth,and that it is influenced only negligibly by water content of the snow,temperatures,etc.Therefore,only cumulative snow depths for the 4 stations were considered. The 4 snow courses considered most representative in predicting winter severity were:(1)Fog Lakep,(2)Square Lake (prior to 1982 known as Oshetna Lake),(3)Monahan Flats,and (4)Lake Louise.In developing a winter severity index (WSI)the 2 snow depth readings which were recorded from 28 January through 2 April were added together from each of the 4 snow stations,and divided by the number of snow stations reporting (in most cases, 4).This yielded the average 2 month cumulative snow depth, which was synonymous wi th the WSI (Table 8). With the available data,we felt that it was possible to deline- ate 3 categories of winters,i.e.,mild,moderate,and severe. Obviously,because snow does not accumulate in discreet,separ- able units but rather as a continuum,it was a subjective deter- mination as to where the break-points were between the 3 cate- gories.However,an idea of relative severity can be gathered by comparing the WSI wi th other data.For instance,the winter of 78-79 was considered relatively severe in terms of snow depths by Eide and Ballard (1982)and observations of calf moose deaths (Ballard and Gardner 1980).Ballard (pers.corom.)also thought 12 - - -- - .- - - - that the winter of 74-75 may have been relatively severe based upon moose calf survival the following summer and early fall.Of the years included in this analysis,these 2 years did have the deepest snow. By the methods outlined above,a winter can be classed as severe when the WSI is 25.0 or greater.A WSI of 17.0 or less was classified as mi ld,and WSI values between 17.1 and 24.9 were moderate (Fig.6). RECRUITMENT No attempt was made to measure productivity of radio-collared cow moose during either 1982 or 1983,however,productivity appeared comparable to earlier studies (Ballard et at.1982a,b).Mor- tality (approximately 71%)of calves continued at a relatively high level (Table 5)and was similar to earlier years where most losses were attributable to predation by brown bears (Ballard etat.1980;1981;1982a,b). SECTION I I I.HABITAT USE VEGETATION/HABITAT SELECTION Methods Use of 19 habitat types around the proposed Devil Canyon and Watana impoundments was determined by overlaying locations of radio-collared moose onto portions of the 1:63,360 scale vege- tation maps provided by Palmer Agricultural Experimental Station (Subtask 7.12,1982.).Thi s included only moose occupying the primary impact zone (Fig.3).Habitat types were identified according to Viereck and Dyrness IS (1980)level I I classifi- cation. 13 ..... - - Two methods were used for determining habitat use:(1)Only moose locations within the borders of a specific type were tallied and locations on ecotone areas (borders of mapped vege- tation types)were excluded;and (2)locations on ecotone areas (borders)were added to the specific types which were used. Because availability of these habitat types had been calculated in the Subtask 7.12 1982 report for a greater area than just near the impoundments (Gold Creek to the Maclaren River)we had to determine habitat availability for this smaller area of concern. Availability of each habitat type was determined by overlaying a grid (mesh =.01 mi 2 )on the vegetation maps and randomly selecting grid points.The habitat type or types wi thin each selected grid intersect was tallied.All moose locations within the mapped areas were included. Results Based on a preliminary assessment,the following habitat types were preferred in relation to their availability by moose both year-round and in spring:woodland black spruce,open black spruce,closed mixed forest and woodland white spruce (Table 9). Willow habitat types were preferred when ecotones were included but were not selected out of proportion to their availability when ecotones were excluded.During spring,willow habitat types were used proportionally less than their availability.Also,low shrub habitat types were used year-round in excess of their availabili ty when ecotone .areas were excluded.Lakes,rock, sedge-grass tundra,sedge-shrub tundra,and mat-cushion tundra were generally used less than expected based upon their avail- abi Ii ty.Generally,the remaining vegetation type s not Ii sted above were used in proportion to their abundance.Because corrected updated vegetation maps are currently in preparation and only moose locations obtained from April 1980 to September 1981 were included,all conclusions based upon this analysis are preliminary. 14 --------_._- - .- i ..... USE OF VARIOUS ELEVATIONS,SLOPES AND ASPECTS Methods The availability of various elevations,slopes,and aspects to moose within-the primary impact zone was assessed by recording these variables at the intersection of section lines on 1:63,360 scale topographic maps (U.S.G.S.) .Moose usage was determined from radio locations plotted on topographic maps.Moose loca- tions in the impact zone and the availability data were divided into those associated with each impoundment area.Elevations were determined by extrapolating between contour lines to the nearest 50 ft.interval.To assess the importance of the area to be inundated and also lands immediately adjacent to the impound- ments which are most likely to be altered from such things as project facilities,changes in microclimate,changes in plant phenology,we determined the proportion of moose locations within the primary impact zone occurring at or below 2,300 ft.Slopes were classified into 3 categories:flat =0°to 10°with contour line intervals exceeding 0.19 inch,gentle =11°to 30°with contour line intervals ranging from 0.03 to 0.19 inch,and moderate =~300 with contour line intervals less than 0.03 inches.Aspect was classified as flat,or 1 of 8 compass directions,from the direction of a line perpendicular to the contour lines through the moose location point. Results There was considerable variation in the monthly and annual elevations occupied by radio-collared moose in the primary impact zone (Table 10).Generally,moose _in the proj ect area move to higher elevations in October,presumabA~to breed,and then depending on snow conditions,begin moving downward reaching the lowest elevations occupied during the year from January through May (Fig.7).Moose appear to be driven to lower elevations in 15 .,.,., - - ,... winter by heavy snowfall;however,it appears that in average or mild winters,temperature inversions and high winds make foraging and traveling easier at higher elevations.Consequently,moose may occupy relatively high areas in winter and spring depending on snow depths,temperatures,and other factors.Moose occupy lower elevations in late spring and early summer during calving. This may be related to earlier snow melt,earlier growth of spring forage,and perhaps increased cover requirements during calving. The monthly importance of elevations at or below 2,300 ft.to moose within the primary impact zone was quite variable between years except during winter and spring months.Use during at least 1 month each winter and spring exceeded 30%of the loca- tions (Table II).As expected;use of the impoundment zone by moose was lowest during the months of October through December. Overall,21.4%of all moose locations collected from October 1975 through May 1982 were at or less than 2,300 ft.elevation. Watana Impoundment Elevations ranging from 2,001-2,200 and 2,401-3,000 ft.within the primary impact zone of the Watana impoundment were used more than expected (P<O.OS)based upon availability,while elevations from 1,201-1,400 ft.and in excess of 3,204 ft.were used less (P<O.OS)than expected (Fig.8).Elevations ranging from 1,401- 2,000,2,201-2,400,·and 3,001-3,200 ft.were used in proportion to their availability (P>O.OS).During winter and spring, elevations ranging from 1,501-2,000,and 2,201-2,800 ft.were used more than expected (P<O.OS),reflecting the downward movement of moose during these seasons (Fig.9).Elevations in excess of 3,001 ft.were used less than expected (P<O.OS)during winter and spring seasons. 16 .- """ Similarly,slope usage by moose was not random (P<0.05),X2 = 24.5).Flat slopes were used less than expected (P<0.05)while moderate slopes were used more than expected (P<0.05),both year-round and from January to May (Fig.10).Gentle slopes were used in proportion to their availability (P<0.05). South slopes were used more than expected (X 2 =21.65,P<0.05) while flat slopes were used less than expected (X 2 =22.9, p<0.05)(Fig.11).All other aspect categories were used in pro- portion to their availability (P>0.05).A similar situation also existed during winter and spring months (X 2 =63.97,P<0.005) except that southwest slopes were used more than expected (P<0.05,X 2 =4.05). Devil Canyon Elevations ranging from 1,601 to ~,400 ft.were used relatively more by moose both year-round and during January to May (P<0.05), while those in excess of 2,800 ft were used either significantly less than expected (P<0.05)or in proportion to their occurrence (Figs.12 and 13).However,area with elevations to be inundated by the Devil Canyon impoundment were used in proportion to their availability (P>0.05). Moose occupying the Devil Canyon area used both south and south- we~t facing slopes more than expected (P<0.05)based upon avail- abili ty (Fig.14)..North facing slopes were used less than expected (P<0.05),while all other slope categories were used in proportion to their occurrence. Both year-round and during January to May flat slopes (Fig.15) were used less than expected (P<0.05)while moderate slopes were used more than expected (P<0.05).During January to May gentle slopes were used in proportion to their occurrence (P<0.05),but year-round they were used more than expected (P<0.05). 17 .- - - - ~- SECTION IV.MOOSE POPULATION MODELING INTRODUCTION In an attempt to identify additional mechanisms of project impact and to quantify impacts previously identified by Ballard et al. (1982),a multidisciplinary model is currently being developed for moose.This segment of the report presents our progress in developing a satisfactory moose population model for pre-project conditions.Because longer,more intense moose population studies to assess the impacts of predation on moose were pre- viously conducted in an adj acent portion of GMU 13 (Ballard et 01.1981 a,b),that area was used as the basis for this par...; ticu1ar model.Boundaries of the area were previously described by Ballard et aJ.(1981a).Briefly,the boundaries are the Alaska Range on the north,Brushkana and Deadman Creeks on the west,Susitna River on the south ~nd the Maclaren River on the east.Although thi s area extends beyond thf:impact zone s,we believe that the biological characteristics of the area are representative of the project area.Also,an attempt was made to model the entire GMU 13 moose population as well,in an effort to provide a comparison to the Susitna model and allow assessment of the percentage of the GMU 13 moose population to be impacted by the project.Both models will be published elsewhere (Ballard et aJ.In Prep.). These population models start with an estimate of population size I and sex and age structure I and proceed through an annual cycle of reproduction and mortality factors which for these models are termed "Events"(Fig.16).Population estimates are calculated for each year at calving and subsequently the popu- lation declines as mortali ty factors act on the population. 18 ..... ,.... POPULATION ESTIMATES Population Size The starting 1975 population size estimate (X)for each model was derived from the following formula: X =(A)(B) C Where A is the number of moose observed/hour during the 1975 autumn composition counts;B is the 1980 area population estimate for either the study area or GMU 13;and C is the number of moose observed/hour during the 1980 autumn composition counts which were conducted immediately before the census.We assumed that the numbers of moose observedjhour during fall composition counts reflected annual changes in moose density.Variable B was estimated from a census during November 1980.Approximately 8,142 km 2 of GMU 13,which included all of the 7,262 km 2 wolf removal area,were stratified and censused to determine the number of moose,using quadrat sampling techniques described by Gasaway (1978)and Gasaway et 01.(1979).Moose density esti- mates derived during the census in 1980 were used as the basis for grossly estimating numbers of moose within the Susitna Study Area and within GMU 13 from 1975-1981.The actual moose popula- tion estimate in fall 1980 and more recently in 1983 were used as a check for the population size generated by the project model. It was assumed that for the model to be valid,both the fall 1980 and 1983 population estimates derived from the model should fall wi thin the confidence interval of the 1983 estimate. A different approach was used for the GMU 13 model.Those por- tions of GMU 13 not censused in 1980 were stratified into 4 density categories (none,low,moderate,and high).The strati- fication was based upon a combination of distribution and numbers of moose observed during composition counts conducted from 19 -- - - 1975-1981,and the knowledge of 5 biologists with experience in this area (more than 24 man-years).Density estimates for the 4 categories derived from sampling were then applied to the non- sampled area to arrive at a GMU 13 population estimate of about 23,000 moose for fall 1980.The GMU 13 model was modi fied so that the fall 1980 and 1983 population size generated by the model would conform with the estimate derived from censusing and stratification. EVENT 1 -REPRODUCTION AND SEX AND AGE STRUCTURE The sex ratio of calves at birth was assumed to be 50:50 .while the sex ratio of yearlings and adults was determined by the previous year I s estimate of reproduction and mortality.In the case of year 1 (1975)the sex ratio was determined by the fall moose composition count and back calculated to correspond with population size at calving (Fig.~7).All age classifications were directly extrapolated from the count data except for the percent of calves in the herd.This was adjusted upward by 5% because calves are often located away from large groups of moose and are usually underestimated in composition counts (Ballard et al.1982 a,b and Gasaway pers.corom.).Also,because prelim- inary runs revealed that in both models,populations declined to extinction,initial estimates of numbers of yearlings were doubled.Estimates of yearlings based upon composition counts were drastically underestimated,probably because they were incorrectly aged as adults. Pregnancy rates of cow moose were determined from rectal pal- pation of captured animals in 1976,1977,and 1980 (VanBallen- berghe 1978;Ballard and Taylor 1980;and Ballard et al.1982). Al though some minor variations in rates was noted,we assumed that 88%of the sexually mature cows (~2 yr age)were pregnant each year. 20 """" - Estimates of moose productivity were determined during calf collaring programs from 1977-79 (Ballard et al.1980;1981)and were estimated at 135 calves/lOa pregnant cows or 1.19 calves/ adul t cow.Producti vi ty of 2-year-olds was estimated at 0.29 calves/cow (from Blood 1974).For the models,we assumed that productivity remained constant each year (which was probably not the case).In fact,in that portion of the Susi tna River Study Area where brown bears were transplanted,there was a significant (p eO.01)negative relationship between the preceding winter's snow depth and the following fall's calf:cow ratio (Ballard et al.1980),suggesting that some fluctuations in productivity occur due to winter severity.However,because of large vari- ations in snow depth between drainages,and because calf survival has been significantly increased by predator reduction programs following severe winters,we were unable to modify productivity estimates based on available data. EVENT 2 -EARLY SPRING AND SUMMER MORTALITY (EXCLUDING PREDATION) Following birth,both calf and adult mortality estimates (Fig.18)were subtracted from the population.Immediately after birth,6%of the calves were assumed to die from natural factors other than wolf (Can;s lupus)and bear predation such as still- birth,drownings,and other accidents (from Ballard et al.1981). EVENTS 3,4,9 -WOLF PREDATION Estimates of annual moose mortality due to wolf predation f,or each model were divided into 3 time periods to correspond with pup production,human exploitation and natural mortality,and changes in diet composition (Fig.19).The time periods were as follows:#1)15 May-15 July (Event 3);#2)15 July-1 November (Event 4);and #3)1 November-1S May (Event 9).Period #1 encompasses the wolf denning period and represents the annual low 21 ..... in the wolf population.Because pups are quite small and totally dependent on the alpha female for nouri shment during thi s time period,no food consumption was allocated for them.Period #2 encompassed the post-denning period and represents the highest level of the wolf population (adults plus pups prior to hunting and trapping season)during the year.For this latter time period we assumed that pups had similar food requirements as adults. Period #3 encompassed both the populations's highest level during the year (prior to hunting and trapping season)but also the lowest level (post hunting and trapping season).Consequently, we used the mid-point between the two population estimates to provide an average number of wolves for the winter.Wolf popu- lation levels were derived from Table 30 from Ballard et ~.(In Prep.)for the Susitna River Study Area while the GMU 13 esti- mates were derived from Tables 22 and 30 (op.cit.) Estimates of percent biomass of moose consumed by wolves for Period 1 were based entirely on scat analyses according to methods described by Floyd et~.(1978).The analyses indicated that 91%of the biomass of prey consumed by wolves from 15 May-IS July was compri sed of ungulates,with calf and adult moose comprising 35%and 47%,respectively,of the total biomass consumed.Estimates of percent biomass of calf and adult moose consumed by wolves during Periods 2 (15 July-1 November)and 3 (1 November-IS May)were determined from kills observed while monitoring radio-marked packs.The estimates for the study were di vided into 2 time periods to correspond with the increased importance of caribou as wolf prey from 1979-1981.From 1975- 1978 we estimated that from 15 July-1 November (Period 2)calf and adult moose comprised 12%and 78%,respectively,of the prey biomass,while from 1 November-IS May {Period 3)calf and adult moose comprised 18%and 73%,respectively,of the bioma0s. During Period 2 from 1979-1981,percent biomass of adult moose declined to 73%,while the percent of calf moose remained 22 ...., ! .... .... -, constant.Percent biomass declined to 17%and 68%calf and adult moose,respectively;during Period 3 from 1979-1981.The esti- mated biomass of calf and adult moose killed by wolves during each time period per year was extrapolated from wolf population estimates for each period multiplied by the numbers of days in each period multiplied by the estimates of wolf daily consumption rates.For all 3 time periods,it was assumed that wolves consumed 7.1 kgs prey/wolf/day (Table 20 op.cit.).Estimates of percent biomass by prey species were then multiplied to derive estimated biomass.For each time period,the number of moose killed was estimated by dividing the average weight of each age class for each period derived from literature and field studies into the estimated biomass.The wolf daily consumption rate used is relatively high in relation to that reported in the literature and thus we consider the estimates of number of moose killed per year to be inflated. EVENT 5 -BROWN BEAR PREDATION Predation rates of brown bear (Ursus arctos)on both adult and calf moose were derived from observations of kills during daily relocation flights of 23 adult radio-collared bears (Ballard et al.1981 and Table 35 from Ballard et al.In Prep.).The relocation flights were done between 15 May-IS July,the period of most brown bear predation on moose (Ballard et al 1981).Kill rates of adult moose were calculated by assuming that all adult moose killed by the 23 radioed bears between 15 May to 15 July were observed (N=28),and after this time no adult moose were killed.Observed rates of calf moose killed were 1 calf/9.4 days/adult bear.These kill rates were extrapolated to the adult bear population estimates for the Susitna study Area and GMU 13 (derived from Miller and Ballard '982).No information was available on annual bear population fluctuations so for these models we assumed a stable population from 1975-1981 (Fig.20). 23 - l"- I, ..- ""'"I -- Preliminary runs of the model indicated that kill rates of calf moose were too high;It seems more likely that estimates of bear kill rates on calf moose would be underestimated even from daily relocation flights because many bears remained on calf kills less than 24 hours (Ballard,unpub.data).Therefore,we modified the estimates of calf kill rate by assuming that the magnitude of bear predation was partia;J..ly dependent on the density of moose calves.For the study area model,it was assumed that bears preyed upon 50%of the estimated number of calves produced for 1977 and 1978.This was based upon estimates derived from moose composi tion counts (0.14 calves/bear/day for 60 days and 0.02 adults/bear/day,for 60 days).At higher levels of calf produc- tion than the 1977 and 1978 levels,we assumed that the numbers preyed upon remained constant.At lower levels of calf pro- duction,we assumed that a linear relationship existed between percent calves taken by bears and calves produced.During 1979 only,we reduced brown bear predat~on on calves to 0.10 calves/ bear/day to correspond with removal of 47 transplanted bears from the Susitna Study Area for a 2-month period in late spring and early summer (Mi ller and Ballard 1982b). Preliminary runs of the project model suggested that our esti- mates of bear predation on adults were also t,oo high.The original kill estimates meant that an excess of 20%annual adult moo~e mortality occurred from brown bear predation alone.Such estimates,compared with all of the other mortality factors were obviously greatly exaggerated.Because many bears remain with adult moose kills for 5-6 days,periodic relocation of bears could tend to overestimate kill rates,similar to overestimation of wolf ki 11 rates (Fuller and Keith 1980).Possibly the 23 adult radio-collared bears had kill rates greater than the rest of the bear population,but we have no evidence to support this idea.Predation estimates on adult moose were modified in a similar way to those for calf moose except that we assumed that at the 1977 and 1978 moose population estimates brown bears were responsible for 7%adult mortali ty. 24 .... - - Preliminary ,runs of the GMU 13 model suggested that the estimates of bear predation derived for the Susitna area were also too high for the entire unit.This was not unexpected since we originally applied bear density estimates obtained for the Susi tna area (Miller and Ballard 1982b)to the entire unit.Undoubtedly variations in both brown bear density and predation on calves occur within the unit.Consequently,both the number of bears and predation rates were subjectively adjusted downwards to 708 adul t bears preying on calf and adult moose at a rate of 0.10 calves/bear/day and 0.01 adult moosejbear/day during 15 May-15 July. EVENT 6 -BLACK BEAR PREDAT I ON Although black bears (Ursus americanus)occur in GMU 13 and they have been observed preying on moose (Ballard and Miller,unpub. data),they were rare and wer~cons~dered an insignificant source of mortality within the Susitna River Study Area.However, because black bears were quite numerous in other portions of GMU 13,they were incorporated into the GMU 13 model (Fig.20). Based on existing density estimates and observed rates of pre- dation from one portion of the unit,we originally estimated that 1,650 black bears occur in the Unit and that they were preying on calf and adult moose at a rate of 0.021 and O.012/bear/day, respectively.Similar to brown bear predation rates,preliminary runs suggested that perhaps both the population estimates and the predation rates for black bear were too high.Consequently,they were subjectively reduced to a population of 1,000 black bears preying on moose at 0.003 calvesjbear/day and 0.001 adults/bear/ day for 60 days following birth. 25 - EVENT 7 -HUNTER HARVEST Annual hunting mortality,which during this study affected bulls only,was determined for each year of study from "mandatory harvest reports"(Fig.21).Harvest reports from successful and unsuccessful moose hunters,are required by law in GMU 13, however,this is not enforced and compliance is less than 100%. To encourage moose hunters to report results of their hunt, reminder letters are sent to all those who took a harvest ticket but did not report their hunt results.Because no reminder letters were sent in 1980,the harvest for that year was deter- mined by extrapolating from return and non-return reports in previous years to reports returned in 1980. Antler measurements on harvest reports since 1978 provided a basis for grossly esti,mating the number of yearlings killed, a1 though some measurements were,undoubtedly false.Antler measurements of ~30 inches were considered to be yearlings or. younger.Beginning in 1980,only bulls with antler spreads of 36 inches or at least 3 brow tines were legal for harvest.For the 1978 and 1979 hunting seasons 55.4%of the measured moose had antlers of 30"or less,therefore we assumed that annually from 1975-1979 half of the harvest was comprised of yearling bulls. We subjectively estimated crippling loss,unreported harvest,and poaching at 15%of the estimated harvest. The annual hunting mortality rate for adult bulls was estimated at 25%based on radio-collar data (N =28). EVENT 8 -WINTER MORTALITY (EXCLUDING PREDATION) Estimates of winter mortality in the model (Fig.18)were sub- tracted from the estimated number of moose present each November -following hunter harvest.The rnagni tude of winter mortality 26 - (usually by starvation)was initially estimated from radio- collared moose by methods described by Hayne (1978)and Gasaway et aJ.(1983).Winter mortality was calculated as fo·llows (from Gasaway et aJ.1983): a Percent mortality = b where a =number of winter mortali ties of radio-collared moose b =estimated number of collared animal months -- b estimated as follows:(c)(d) e Where:c =mean #months collars transmitting (excluding dead moose) d =total #radio-collared moose (including dead moose) e =time interval for annual mortali ty. .- ..... Winter mortality data was available from 1977-1981 for calf moose and from 1979-1982 for yearling moose (Table 12). For modeling,it was assumed that during mild winters (1975-76 through 1977-78 and 1979-1980)calf mortality was 6%_Winter 1978-79 was considered relatively severe (Eide and Ballard 1982) with high rates of calf mortality during late winter (Table 12). These higher rates for males and female calves were used for 1978-89 in the models.For yearling females,we uti lized the calculated rate of 2.4%i and for yearling bulls we utilized the calculated mortality rate of 6%(Table 12).Even though the yearling bull mortality rate was attributable to hunting,which theoretically would have been ille0al,it was used because bulls usually suffer proportionately larger natural mortality than females and we suspected the calculated rate was low. 27 .... - Annual winter mortality rates for adult cows varied from 0 to 5.6%during 1976-1982 (Table 13).Overall the winter mortality rate was estimated at 3.6%and this was used for each year of the study.Apparently the winter of 1978-79 was severe enough to cause significant increases in calf mortality but not for adults. It was assumed that during mild winters adult bulls suffered rates of winter mortality identical to that of cows (3.6%). During severe winters,we assumed that adult bulls would suffer higher rates of mortality than cows,so the 1978-79 winter mortality was subjectively estimated at 7.2%. PROJECT POPULATION MODEL ANALYSES Population Size Estimates Between 1975 and 1981,estimates qerived from fall composition counts and the model suggest that the area's moose population increased (Fig.22).The model indicates that the fall moose population increased by 24%,while population estimates based on the composition counts indicated a much larger increase of 101%. Projected population estimates beyond May 1981 (Fig.22)assume that all mortality factors remain identical to those of 1980-81. Each year's independent moose population estimate based upon composition counts were compared to those generated by the model (Fig.23).From this comparison,it becomes quite evident that the annual population estimates based on composition counts were not accurate.Using both the 1975 and 1976 data with documented levels of productivity and mortality,the population eventually becomes extinct.Based upon the 1980 census estimate and the composi tior of the population at that time,no winter mortality could have occurred for the moose population to have increased up to the 1981 or 1982 estimates based on the composition counts. Because this is highly unlikely,it suggests that the number of 28 moose observed/hour in composition counts is probably not an accurate index of change in annual moose density.Also,it suggests that the relationship between moose observed per hour in composition counts versus population estimates obtained from censusing may be quite variable from year to year.All other population estimates suggested an increasing population trend al though the rates of increase were qui te different. To provide verification for the moose model,the area was cen- sused again in fall 1983 using the same methods used in 1980.We assumed that if the model adequately reflected the population dynamics of moose then the projected fall 1983 moose population estimate should coincide closely with that provided by the census.Table 14 summarizes count data and the subsequent moose population estimate for the upper Susi tna River Basin.Appen- dicies C through J provide count data and population estimates for individual count areas and compare statistics derived from routine composition counts with those obtained from q~adrant sampling.Count area 12 was censused for management reasons and thse data are included merely for reference.Comparison of Table 14 with_f~gure 22 indicates that the projected fall moose popula- tion estimate based on modeling (approximately 2900)falls within the 90%confidence interval (2491-3101)provided by the census. An even closer fit occurs when the model is modified by assuming an additional 15%hunting mortality due to crippling loss and unreported harvest.Because these estimates are nearly identical to those estimated for the primary impact zone (Table 6),the model appears to reflect the population dynamics of moose under pre-project conditions. Future modeling will involve incorporation of carrying capacity estimates derived from vegetation studies and analysis of various.... levels of proj ect impacts on moose. 29 Sex and Age Structure Comparison of several sex-age parameters between the model and composi tion counts suggests that at least three sex-age clas- sifications are underestimated during composition counts.Calf: cow ratios as estimated from the model were higher than those obtained from composition counts (Fig.24).Even though composi- tion count ratios were adjusted upward based upon observed differences between composition surveys and census data,the model suggests that the discrepancy between these 2 counts may be larger than exi sting data suggest (Gasaway et at.1982;Ballard et at.1982).The discrepancy occurs because cow:calf pairs are often segregated from larger groups of moose and have a lower probabili ty of being observed wi th ei ther survey method. Also,the model suggests that both survey estimates tend to underestimate the proportions of yearling bulls (Fig.25)and cows present in the population.This could Jccur for at least 3 reasons:(1)counts are often made following hunting mortality, so that usually an unknown proportion of yearling bulls has been removed and remains unaccounted for;(2)an unknown proportion of the yearling bulls cannot be identified from fixed-wing aircraft because antlers are comprised of either buttons or short spikes, and (3)during the 1975 and 1976 composition surveys the criteria utilized for estimating ages of yearling bulls were not accurate according to antler configuration data (Gasaway,pers.comm.). Because the proportion of yearling females is based upon the estimates of yearling males,this sex-age class would also be underestimated. Calf Mortali ty Predation by brown bears was the single most important calf mort~lity factor during the study period.Because of the manner in which brown bear mortality was calculated,the numbers of 30 ..... r- I .- ..... calves killed by bears each year varied (Fig.26)but the actual percentage of calves killed remained constant each year except in 1979 when bears were temporarily transplanted from the area. Calf mortality attributable to wolf predation declined from 9.1% in 1975 to 4.1%in 1978 (Table 15).This suggests that during the years that wolves were experimentally killed (1976-78)calf survival increased slightly.Following termination of wolf control and repopulation of the area by wolves,calf mortality attributable to wolf predation increased and slightly exceeded precontrol levels by 1981.During the same period,starvation accounted for 1.9-3.2%of the total calf mortality except during the winter of 1978-79.This was considered a moderately severe winter,and at least 14.9%of the calves died of starvation. Yearling Mortali ty Trends in yearling moose r.lortali ty were simi lar to those of calves,except the magni tude of the mortality was substantially less (Table 15).From 197~-79,hunting mortality (assuming that half of the bull harvest was comprised of yearlings)was the largest source of overall mortality (Fig.27)even though only affecting males.Beginning with the 1980 season,yearlings were theoretically protected by antler regui'"ations_and,ther.efore,0 hunting mortality declined to insignificant levels.Mortality attributable to wolf predation declined from 7.6%in 1975 to a low of 3%while wolf control was in effect.Following termina- tion of wolf control,yearling mortality attributable to wolf predation increased.Yearling mortality attributable to brown bears declined during the study period primarily because the model assumed a stable bear population and the moose population was increasing.Winter mortality (starvation)was quite variable even during mild winters.The highest winter mortality occurred during the severe winter of 1978-79. 31 - - .. Adul t Mortali ty Trends in·adult mortality were quite similar to those of year- lings because for both types of predation it was assumed that the sex-age class of kills was dependent on availabili ty (Fig.28). GMU 13 POPULATION MODEL ANALYSES Population Size Estimates The 1975-82 GMU 13 post-calving moose population trend (15.8% increase)was similar in many respects to that of the Susitna River study Area (16.8%).However,the population declined between 1975-76 and 1976-77 and again in 1978-79 (Table 16).The largest increases occurred between 1979-80 (7.5%)and 1980-81 (9.9%).The estimated fall population size based on the model differed considerably from the pop~lation estimate derived from composition counts,particularly for 1975 and 1976 (Fig.29). This was believed due to underestimation of both yearlings and calves during composi tion counts. Calf Mortality Brown bear predation.was responsible for more calf mortality than wolf predation or winter mortality (Fig.30).Except during the severe winter of 1978-79,wolf predation was the second most important cause of calf mortality (Fig.30).Mortality of calf moose was higher in the GMU 13 than in the wolf control area, particularly in 1976-77 when wolves preyed upon 17.3%of the estimated numbers of calves produced.As wolf densities declined ,in the unit,primarily from hunting and trapping activities,the estimated percentage of calves preyed upon by wolves declined each year,reaching a low of 7.0%during 1981-82.Calf mortality studies conducted in 1977 and 1978 suggested that 3%of the calf 32 ..... ~.... mortalities during the first 6 weeks following birth were attri- butable to wolf predation (Ballard et ale 1981).Independent modeling estimates suggested that calf mortality attributable to wolf predation ranged from 4.3 to 6.3%during the same years. Therefore,both approaches suggested that wolf predation on newborn moose calves was ,a secondary source of calf mortali ty. Adul t Mortali ty Wolf predation on adult moose in the GMU 13 also declined during the study period (Fig.31),ranging from 13.5%in 1975 to 4.0%in 1981.The decline in wolf-related adult mortality was due to a decrease in the wolf population and concurrent increases in the moose population.Similarly,percent annual adult mortality from brown bear predation also declined (5.5 to 4.8%)but this was primarily the result of increases in the moose population since we assumed that bear populations were stable during the study. During the study,adult mortality attributable to hunting increased primarily because of changes in hunting regulations in 1980 which placed all harvest pressure on adult bulls only. Wolf Predation Earlier analyses of the effects of decreased ~~lf dens1ties (from wolf control)on moose calf survival suggested that no signifi- cant increases had occurred because ratios of various sex and age classifications had fluctuated similarly between control and non- control areas (Ballard et ale 1981).Al though the reductions in wolf density were substantially larger in the wolf control area, wolf densities in both the wolf control area and GMU 13 decreased from 1975 levels,while moose populations in both areap increased (Fig.32).Reductions in both calf mortality from 9-17%annual mortality to 4-7%,and adult moose mortality from 8-10%to 3-4% annual mortality probably contributed to the increases in the moose populations.Because wolf densities declined in both 33 ."", ~ I .- I - areas,it would be expected that the sex-age ratios would fluc- tuate similarly.Ai though wolf predation was not the primary source of moose mortality,its reduction in combination with several mild winters appears to have allowed both moose popu- lations to increase.Substantially larger increases could probably be anticipated if the level of bear predation was also reduced. From 1 November through 15 May each year,mortality of moose from wolf predation is relatively high on a superficial basis but on a population level is relatively minor.For example,in both the experimental area and GMU 13 wolf predation accounted for.6.5 and 7.7%mortality,respectively,of the calves present on 1 November 1975.However,of the total calves produced,this source of mortality represented only 2.3 and 4.1%respectively.From this comparison,it would be easy to conclude from flights made during winter when wolf kills are most n9ticeable that wolf predation was a much more important source of moose mortality than what it actually represents on a population basi s. SECTION V.IMPACT MECHANISMS Table 17 summarizes the major structural features associated with the construction and operation .of th.e.Susi tna Hydroelectric Project and a description of their potential impact on moose.In an effort to assess the effects of these impacts on moose,they were related to the basic components of the moose model described in the previous section (Table 18).Based upon this assessment, the proposed project will affect the population dynamics of upper Susitna moose and their predators.The exact magnitude of these effects,however,will require refinement as studies proceed and actual operation is commenced.Earlier (see section 9P Zone of Impact)we estimated that based upon numbers of radid,-collared moose utilizing the impoundment areas in relation to the 1980 census,from 1900 to 2600 moose could be directly impacted by 34 - - - ",,,,, - construction and operation of the Watana and Devil Canyon impoundments.These estimates comprised 8 to 11%of the total numbers of moose occurring in GMU-13.Including moose which could be secondarily impacted by the project through increased competition from displaced moose,etc.,approximately 45%of the GMU-13 moose population could be affected to varying degrees by the proposed projects.Moose modeling efforts currently underway will be adapted to incorporate anticipated effects of the project on the individual components of the moose population. SECTION VI.MITIGATION Current investigation is focused on an experimental burn to improve moose habi tat described in Section I. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A large number of ADF&G employees participated and contributed to our study efforts.They included Karl Schneider,Sterling Miller,Dennis McAllister,Enid Goodwin,Raymond Kramer,SuzAnne Miller,Steve Albert,Danny Anctil,Tammy Otto,John Westlund, Craig Gardner,Kathy Adler,Susan La~ler and Penny Miles.To all we express our appreciation. Karl Schneider continually contributed to the study with sugges- tions for improving study design and by making numerous sugges- tions to improve the quality of this report.SuzAnne Miller advised on statistical procedures and provided the figures for the moose model.Carol Riedner prepared the final figures. 35 J )1 -J 1 I »J i I 1 J J I Table 1.Statistics associated with capture and radio-collaring of 10 adult cow moose in April and July 1982 within the proposed controlled burn area. New Old Radio Visual Metal With Total Hind Head Heart Placement & Accession Collar Date of Collar Collar Ear Tag Age Calf Length Foot Length Girth Induction Number Number Sex Capture Location #Color L.R.Yrs.(Mas.)and No.(cm) (cm) (cm)(cm)Condition Drug Dosage Time (min) 120712 8037 F 7/19/82 Big bend 9543 White ear tags --Cm ---.----6 9 cc M-99.1 cc left leg (49) Maclaren missing Rompun 3 cc M-99 left rump 9 cc M-99.1 cc left rump Rompun w 120761 F 4/08/82 Burn area 9540 White 16995 4 (l0)No 282 84 83m----5 I 120762 --F 4/08/82 Burn area 9538 White 16948/15928 4 (10)No 298 83 --193 5 120763 --F 4/08/82 Burn area 9541 White 4 (10)No 282 83 70 193 5 120764 --.F 4/08/82 Burn area 9544 White 16854 at least No.305 70 --168 6 4 (10) 120765 .-F .4/08/82 Burn area 9539 White 16338/16934 14 (10)No 288 --79 208 6 120774 --F 7/19/82 Burn W.of 11864 White No --------8 10 cc M-99.1 cc left side Kelly Lake Rompun (l8) 3 cc M-99 120775 --F 7/20/82 Burn W.of 11867 White 15992/15986 --em 282 ,8,0 79 198 8 9 cc M-99.1 cc left hip Kelly Lake Rompun 3 cc M-99 left hip 120776 ...F 7/20/82 Burn S.of 11865 White 15997/15990 --No 267 76 70 173 7 9 cc M-99.1 cc left hip Kelly Lake Rompun 3 cc M-99 left hip (l4) 120777 --F 7/20/82 Burn area 11866 White 15987/15989 --No 274 In 75 190 9 --(lU 1 1 1 1 J --I -1 ']1 j )i i Table 2.Results of moose census in GMU-13 proposed burn area,24 and 25 March 1982. Sample Area Time Mini Observed Total estimated number moose !I Unit Imi 2 )(min)mi2 No.Moose MOose/ml 2 No.Hoose MOoselml 2. 91 16.8 89 5.3 1 0.4 12 0.7 92 14.2 77 5.4 21 1.5 ,35 2.5 93 10.6 68 6.4 16 1.5 27 2.5 94 18.9 76 4.0 3 0.2 5 0.3 w 14.4 4.7 ~0.4 8-....]95 68 0.6 79 15.4 83 5.4 51 3.3 '85 5.5 80 14.5 80 5.5 26 1.8 43 3.0 81 13.1 62 4.7 10 0.8 11 1.3 82 ~112 ~28 -h!.-47 .2:l.... Total 138.7 715 46.8 167 11.3 279 18.7 Mean x 5.2 1.3 2.0 !I Sigbtabi1ity index generated by randomly selecting southeast quarter of Unit surveying at 12 min/mi 2 • An additional 2 moose were observed and thus approximately 40\of moose were not observed at survey intensity of 5.2 min/mi 2 •Estimated number of moose =3 observed x sightabi1ity index (1.67). I 1 J ]1 )]j I ]~1 I J I Table 3.Moose census results from the GMU-13 proposed bum area,25 and 26 March,1983. Area Survey Time Minutes Sample Unit (mt 2 )(min.)per mile Observed No.moose Moose/ml 2 Total estimated1numbero·f moose No.moose MOose/mi 2 79 21.8 105 4.8 37 1.70 47.6 2.18 80 14.5 72 5.0 26 1.79 33.5 2.31 81 13.1 69 5.3 10 0.76 12.9 0.98 82 20.8 104 5.0 40 1.92 51.5 2.48 91 16.8 85 5.1 12 0.71 15.5 0.92 92 14.2 61 4.3 15 1.06 19.3 1.36 93 10.6 53 5.0 31 2.92 39.9 3.76 94 18.9 100 5.3 18 0.95 23.2 1.23 95 14.4 70 4.9 7 0.49 9.0 0.63 TOTALS 145.1 719 196 252.4 x 4.96 1.35 1.74 1 Determined by mUltiplying total number of moose by sightabi1ity correction factor (1.29).w 00 1 ·---1 I ]J 1 I i 1 1 ]I 1 1 j Table 4.Statistics associated with recapturing radio-collared moose in the Susitna Hydroelectric Project Study Area of southcentra1 Alaska during October 1982. New Old Radio Visual Metal With Total Hind Placement & Accession Collar Date Collar Collar Ear Tag Age Calf Length Foot Induction Number Number Sex Capture Location #Color L.R.Yrs.(Mos.)and No.(cm)(em)Condition Drug Dosage Time (min) 120617 6406 F 10/12/82 Tsusena Creek 12425 White 15877/15876 ----No 8 20 ec M-99 (21) 120622 6407 F 10/12/82 Clark Creek 12424 White None 13 (4)No ~20 cc M-99 (47) 3 cc M-99, 1 cc Rompun "120623 5527 F 10/09/82 Middle 12430 Y-50 16252/16253 9 (4)C (l).----9 Brushkana Creek 120624 6393 F 10/14/82 Upper lia tana 12422 White'16922/16923 11 (4)------7 10 cc M-99 Rt.shoulder (19) Creek 5 cc M-99, w 3 cc Rompun \t) 120629 6434 F 10/12/82 ---12415 White 16907/16906 4 (4)--------10 cc M-99 (36) 3 ec M-99, 2 cc Rompun 120630 6438 _F 10/12/82 Tsusena Creek 12423 White 16108/16109 7 (4)--------20 cc M-99 Rump (50) 3 cc M-99, 1 cc Rompun 3 cc M-99, 1 ee Rompun 120634 6436 F 10/12/82 Stephan Lake 12428 White 16912/16913 13 (4)------8 10 cc M-99 (61) 3 ce M-99, 2 cc Rompun 3 cc M-99, 2 ec Rompun 120635 6433 F 10/12/82 Stephan Lake 12438 White 16162/16161 ----------8 10 cc M-99 Left rump (44) 3 cc M-99,Rt.baek 2 cc Rompun 3 cc M-99,Rt.rear 1 cc Rompun 120636 6448 F 10/15/82 Kosina Creek 12420 White 16165/16166 5 (4)--------10 cc M-99 Left shoulder (13) 5 cc Rompun, 3 ec Rompun 120637 6437 F 10/16/82 Tsitsi Lake 12427 White 16170/16169 ----------7 15 cc M-99,(13) 3 cc Rompun 120639 6444 F 10/15/82 Tsitsi Lake 12435 White 16891/16892 5 (4)No ----8 15 cc M-99,(41) 3 cc Rompun 5 ec M-99, 3 cc Rompun 1 -1 J -I I )1 1 )1 J J -J 1 1 ) Table 4.(cont1d) New Old Radio Visual Metal Hith Total Hind Placement & Accession Collar Date Collar Collar Ear Tag Age Calf Length Foot Induction Number Number Sex Capture Location #Color L.R.Yrs.(Mos.)and No.(cm)(cm)Condition Drug Dosage Time (min) 120640 6440 F 10/15/82 Kosina Creek 12412 White 16160/16159 6 (4)------7 10 cc M-99 (17) 120642 6445 M 10/12/82 'Fog Creek 12432 White 15915/16903 5 (4)--297 82 7,10 cc M-99 left flank (7) 3 cc M-99,left flank 2 cc Rompun 120643 6447 F 10/12/82 Fog Lakes 12431 White 16918/16919 -- -- No ----8 10 cc M-99 left hind leg (7) 3 cc M-99,mid rump 2 cc Rompun 120644 6452 F'10/12/82 Fog Creek 12429 White 15947/15946 ----No --10 cc M-99 left rump (22) ~2 cc Rompun 0 120645 6451 F 10/14/82 Upper Butte 12418 White 15945/15944 11 (4)No ----7.5 10 cc M-99 right shoulder (17) 5 cc M-99, 3 cc Rompun 120648 6462 F 10/15/82 Coal Creek 12416 White 15940/15941 5 (4)No --IS cc M-99 left shoulder (13) 3 cc Rompun 5 cc M-99,neck 3 cc Rompun 120649 6463 F 10/14/82 Clarence Lake 12433 White 16172/16171 ----No 5 10 cc M-99 left rump (13) 5 ce M-99,left shoulder 3 cc Rompun 120650 6467 F 10/15/82 Coal Creek 12414 White 15827/15826 5 (4)C(l)------10 cc M-99 left shoulder (13) 5 cc M-99, 3 cc Rompun 120652 6464 F 10/14/82 Clarence Creek 12417 White 16152/16151 14 (4)Cll)----7 10 cc M-99 left leg (14) 5 cc M-99,left flank 3 cc Rompun 120653 6450 F 10/14/82 Clarence Creek 12421 White 16105/16104 14 (4)No ----9 10 cc M-99 right rump (30) 3 cc M-99,right rump 1 cc Rompun 5 ce M-99, 3 cc Rompun 120654 6400 F 10/14/82 Clarence Creek 12419 White 16842/16841 10 (4)No ----8 10 cc M-99 left rump () 5 cc M-99,1,eft sid,e 3 cc Rompun 5 cc M-99,left shoulder 3 cc Rompun 1 1 J 1 J I J ]1 1 1 I j ]~ Table 5.Susitna River crossings,and calf production and mortality of 75 radio-collared moose studied from 11 April 1980 through December 1982 in the upper Susitna River Basin of southcentra1 Alaska.Superscripts with the same number indicate cow~ca1f groups. #Occasions Dates of Date,First Dates When Moose Sex-#Times Crossed River (bserved It Calves Calves Last #Calves It Calves It Age Year Located Susitna River Crossings Hith Calves (bserved (bserved Lost Surviving Misc.Notes 120617 F-A 1980 20 0 -0 0 1981 14 0 ~~5/29 2 5/29 1 1 1982 16 0 --0 0 120618 F-A 1980 13 0 --0 0 ------Dead 7/1/81 1981 3 0 --5/29 1 5/29 1 0 Bear predation 120619 F-A 1980 16 1 5/13-6/4 0 0 1981 14 5 S/1O-6/1 6/1 1 7/1 1 0 6/1-711 ~10/2-10/27 t-'10/27-11/18 11/18-12/9 1982 14 2 S/12-S/24 5/24 1 5/24 1 0 9/27-10/30 120620 F-A 1980 2 ---------- ----Dead 4/22/80 120621 F-A 1980 1 --------------Lost collar 120622 F-A 1980 18 0 --0 0 1981 13 0 --0 0 1982 IS 0 --6/8 1 6/8 1 0 120623 F-A 1980 10 0 --0 0 1981 4 0 --10/?1 --0 1 1982 9 2 1/4-2/2 7/10 1 10/30 1 0 2/2-4/16 120624 F-A 1980 14 0 --S/2S 1 6/26 1 0 1981 11 4 9/16~1O/S S/29 1 ~-~-0 10/S-1O/28 10/28-11/17 1982 "13 2 l/S-2/'J.--0 2/2-2/24 120625 F-A 1980 6 0 --0 0 ------Dead 6/26/80 " -, I I I I I 1 J J 1 1 j -1 '1 I 1 "1 J J 1 J .~I -)1 J -J )1 J 1 1 j -]1 1 J -1 J ~\1 1 i ]J 1 I 1 I 1 Table 5.(cant 'd) #Occasions Dates of Date First Dates Wben Moose Sex-#Times Crossed River Observed #Ca1vel:l Calves Last #Calves #Calves #Age Year Located Susitna Riv~r Crossings With Calves «.bserved «.bserved Lost Surviving Misc.Notes -- 120647 F-A 1980 18 2 5/25-5/27 0 0 5/27-5/31 1981 14 2 7/22-8/4 5/26 2 5/26 1 1 8/4-8/9 1982 4 1 2/1-2/24 ----------Dead 2/82,apparent winter kill 120648 F-A 1980 14.0 --6/27 1 1 0 1 1981 14 0 --5/26 1 5/26 1 0 1982 13 0 --7/28 1 1 0 .c:.120649 F-A'1980 14 0 --5/25 1 5/25 1 1 .c:.1981 15 0 --0 0 1982 13 0 --0 0 120650 F-A 1980 16 0 --5/27 1 ----1 1981 16 0 --0 0 1982 13 0 --6/10 1 --0 1 120651 F-A 1980 13 0 --0 0 ----Dead 1/9/81 1981 1 0 ------------Wolf predation 120652 F-A 1980 16 0 --6/2 2 6/2 2 0 1981 14 0 --0 0 1982 12 0 --6/10 2 6/10 1 1 120653 F-A 1980 14 0 --5/27 2 5/27 2 0 1981 14 0 --0 0 1982 16 3 3/13-4/13 0 0 6/10-7/27 8/13-10/8 120654 F;-A 1980 14 0 --0 0 1981 12 0 --0 0 1982 14 1 2/1-2/24 0 0 120655 F-A 1980 14 0 --0 0 1981 12 2 9/8-9/16 0 0 9/16-10/28· 1982 8 2 12/7-1/5 0 0 1/5-211 Dead 6/82 120656 F-A 1980 16 0 --6/27 2 '6/27 1 1 1981 2 0 --0 0 1982 J 1 ,]-j J j j 1 )I 1 Table 5.(cont'd) #Occasions Dates of Date First Dates Wh~n Moose Sex-#Times Crossed River Observed #Calves Calves Last #Calves #Calves #Age Year Located Susitna River Crossings With Calves Observed Observed 0,test Surviving Misc.Notes 120662 F~A 1980 10 0 -~0 0 1981 11 0 --7/28~9/9 1 --0 1 1982 12 0 --0 0 120663 1980 10 0 --0 0 1981 12 0 --Q 6/27-7/28 1 --0 1 1982 10 1 1/11-2/24 5/1 1 --0 1 120664 F-A 1980 11 0 --0 0 1981 1 0 --0 0 1982 il:>o F-A 1981 0 0U112066610--0 1982 6 0 --0 0 120667 M-A 1981 12 0 1982 6 0 120668 ~I F-A 1981 13 0 --------1 0 1982 12 0 --6/8 1 --0 1 120669 fit F-C 1981 12 0 120670C F-C 1981 14 0 ~-----------Lost radio contact 5/22 120671 J./F-A 1981 11 0 1982 10 0 11 7/28 '1 0 0 1 120672 11 M-C 1981 11 0 1982 15 0 120673 ~I F-A 1981 3 0 -- ----------Lost collar 120674 ~I M-C 1981 12 0 1982 11 2 ,1/5-2/2 2/2-2/24 5/6-6/8 -J J J -11 I j 1 1 -I I ]1 -)-,1 '.t J _J I J -j J I D I J Table 5.(cont'd) It Occasions Dates of Date First Dates When Moose Sex-#Times Crossed River Observed It Calves Calves Last It Calves It Calves It Age Year Located Susitna River Crossings With Calves Observed Observe4 Lost Surviving Misc.Notes 120684 13/F_A 1981 13 0 1982 11 5 1/4-2/1 6/8 1 7/28 1 0 6/8-7/28 7/28-10/30 10/30-11/16 11116-12/4 120685 .!!IF-C 1981 10 0 h82 13 3 5/10-5/28 0 0 5/28-6/1 120686 15/F_C 611-7/27 tl:>o 1981 12 2 7/22-9/9 -..I 9/21-10/1 1982 13 0 --7/27 1 7/27 1 0 120687 161 1981 11 0 --5/26 1 --0 1 1982 9 0 --0 0 120688 F-A 1981 12 0 1982 8 0 --0 0 120689 16/F_C 1981 11 0 1982 10 0 --0 0 120690 131 M-C 1981 11 0 '1982 10 0 120691 15/F_A 1981 12 0 1982 11 2 1/4-2/1 2/1-2/24 120692 14/F_C 1981 11 0 --6/24 1 --0 1 1982 I 1 I -]J )]]J J J 'I 1 J I Table 5.(cont1d) #Occasions Dates of Date First Dates When Moose Sex-#Times Crossed River Observed #Calves Calves Last #Calves #Calves #Age Year Located Susitna River Crossings With Calves Observed Observed Lost SurViving Misc.Notes - 120693.!1/F-c 1981 12 3 4/15-5/26 5/26-6/24 10/1-10/27 1982 10 3 12/81-1/82 0 0 2/24-3/23 3/23-5/5 120694 !!!/F-A 1981 13 0 ----------I 1982 14 0 --6/8 1 6/8 1 0 120695 17/F-A 1981 9 3 7/18-7/28 --------I ,j:>,7/28-9/9 00 9/17-10/2 1982 13 2 6/8-8/10 0 0 8/18-10/26 120696 17/M-C 1981 9 1 7/18-7/22 1982 10 2 3/13-5/12 0 0 5/24-6/8 120697 F-A 1981 11 0 1982 11 4 1/5-2/24 0 0 2/24-3/23 4/14-5/5 6/8-7/28 J I ].._J 1 ])»J J 1 i I Table 6.Moose census results from 4-9 November 1983 and subsequent population estimate for the primary impact zone. Medium LOwDensityStratumHigh Sample NO.Area Sample No.Area Sample No.----xrea Unit Moose (Mi 2 )Unit Moose (MP)Unit Moose (Mi 2 ) 30 67 19.6 48 43 13.9 41 25 8.1 51 55 13.2 45 24 17.7 3 9 11.3 42 80 8.7 6 27 11.2 9 4 13.5 36 32 13.5 4 2 10.0 21 3 12.3 27 41 15.9 5.37 14.9 10 2 12.9 18 42 13.1 28 35 21.5 32 10 11.2 34 29 14.7 29 18 11.6 150 3 10.8 53 69 9.8 22 12 110.9 154 7 11.9 135 9 11.9 13 32 16.3 125 3 11.8 139 30 12.5 11 12 12.5 133 7 11.0 168 72 13.7 39 76 11.6 130 12 12.4..,.140 38 12.9 123 12 19.9 158 10 10.0 \0 184 41 11.6 129 30 9.7 205 2 10.0 131 25 11.8 202 0 15.9 172 19 13.7 56 10 15.1 177 18 11.0 '88 0 11.8 204 8 15.5 60 18 13.1 170 18 14.1 203 5 11.3 58 33 24.0 187 12 13.8 153 29 13.3 190 14 11.4 Totals 13 605 171.1 21 524 296.5 19 142 228.2 Total Number Sample Units in area 19 45 58 Area of each stratum 248.9 602.3 704.8 Moose densityl stratum 3.536 1.767 .622 Moose Pop.Est.1 Stratum 880 1064 439 Total Moose Population Estimate -90%CI -2383 (2130-2636) Sightability Correction Factor =1.19 Corrected Total Moose Population Estimate -2836 (2535 -3137) 2836 ±301 (10.6%) I~ <!'i"'! I ,."., Table 7.Area of moose habitat (less than 4,000 ft.elevation)and moose population estimates for 3 moose impact zones associated with development of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Alaska. Mi 2 of lU 2 of Moose Population Estimates1 Nonmoose Moose Radio MethOd Method Method Method Mi 2 Nabitat Habitat Collared Moose 1 2 3 4 Primary Zone 1,378 124 1,254 68 1,913 2,633 2,265 2,836 Secondary Zone 1,750 261 1,489 50 3,765 Tertiary Zone 2,258 161 2,097 53 4,1.42 1 For description of methods see text. 50 'I 1 -J I ]]]]1 1 I 1 Table 8.Snow survey data and calculations of a winter severity index near the middle Susitna River, Alaska,1974 through February 1984. Year -1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 FOG LAKES Jan.15 33 14 28 17 24*29*11 15 21*19 Feb.20 29 18 27 17 27 32 14 22 23 22 Mar.24 30 22 32 18 35 32 20 30 24 SQUARE LAKE Jan.14 19 12 17 16 20*1~*16 28 22*13 Feb.21 22 13 20 17 23 17 18 30 25 15 Mar 20 25 16 25 18 25 18 22 32 26 U1 MONAHAN FLATS I-' Jan.17 36 22 30 28 32*25*24 20 30*28 Feb.22 36 25 32 30 35 28 31 19 33 36 Mar.22 40 32 42 32 41 30 32 23 33 LAKE LOUISE Jan.14 23 12 18 20 19*17*12*16 17*17 Feb.25 24 13 21 22 23 21 14 19 20 21 Mar.25 27 19 29 28 24 15 20 21 OVERALL AVERAGE Jan.15.0 27.8 15 23.25 20.25 23.8 21.5 15.8 19.8 22.5 19.25 Jan.-Feb.WSI 18.5 27.8 16.1 24.1 20.9 25.4 23.0 17.5 21.1 23.9 21.4 Jan.-Mar.WSI 19.9 28.7 18.2 26.8 21.3 27.7 24.0 19.1·22.8 24.6 *extrapo1ated estimates I"""' I 52 1 1 })~j -j Table 10.Average monthly elevations for 74 radio-collared moose studied intermittently from October 1976 through May 1982 in the primary impact zone of the Susitna project. 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 ###### Month i Range (Moose)i Range (Moose)i Range (Moose)i Range (Moose)i Range (Moose)x Range (Moose) June 1800-1300 1600 1725 2548 3800 (12)2575 3900 (12)2800 --(1)2454 3650 (32)2710 3800 (29) July 2200-1600 2000 1500 2930 4000 (14)2455 3600 (U)25~4 4200 (13)2590 3400 (48) ~Aug.2100 2200 1800 1900 w 2856 3900 (14)2856 4000 (13)2592 3300 (31)2435 3050 (24) Sept.2200 1800 1450 2631 3400 (12)2800 --(l)2620 3300 (30)2566 4100 (49) Oct.3000-2000 2100 1800 1450 33333600 (6)2786 3200 (14)3024 3900 (111 3700 --(l)2850 3700 (29)2797 4550 (49) Nov.2400-1900 1450 1900 2100 1950 2700 3200 .(5)2821 3600 (111 2658 3600 (10)2350 2800 (l)2902 3600 (29)2725 3850 (47) Dec.2400-1600 2800 1975 2708 3500 (6)------2620 3600 (10)3044 3750 (16)2731 4100 (43) Jan.2000-2300 1900 1800 1650 2233 3400 (6)2525 2800 (4)2575 3600 (8)2689 3400 (15)2515 4300 (42) Feb.2300-1800 2600 HOO 1400 2578 2800 (5)2770 3600 (10)2667 2800 (3)2512 3500 (25)2485 3600 (44) March 2200-2200-2200-1700-1600.,. 2850 3600 (14)2550 2900 (4)2713 3400 (8)2396 3300 (48)2461 3500 (43) April 1800-1900-2100-i500~1500-1375 2476 3600 (1S)2490 3800 (10)2543 3200 (7)2327 3300 (30)2583 3500 (36)2503 4100 (42) May 1400-1900-1400-1400-1975- 2452 3800 (13)2471 2800 (1~)---- -- 2387 3400 (28)2565 3400 (46)2480 3500 (43) J J 1 __I ]]1 1 !I 1 Table 11.Radio-collared moose locations occurring at or below 2300 ft.elevation in relation to total number of locations by'month and year for moose occupying in the Susitna Hydroelectric Project primary impact zone from 1976 through May 1982. June July Aug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.April May Totals 1976-71 N --------0(6)0(7)0(12)1(6)0(9)1(24)9 (21)11(23)22(108) %--------0 0 0 16.7 0 4.2 42.9 47.8 20.4 1977-78 N 6(57)1 (20)1 (16)--1(4)1(4)--0(4)2 (10)2 (6)5 (10)4(21)23 (172) %10.5 5.0 6.3 --7.1 7.1 --0 20.0 33.3 50.0 19.0 13.4 1978-79 N 8 (44)4 (11)6(18)2 (20)1(7)1 (13)3UO)2 (8)0(3)1(8)3 (7)--31(159) %18.2 36.4 33.3 10.0 5.9 7.7 30.0 25.0 0 12.5 42.9 --19.5VI .po 1979-80 N 0(1)----oU)OU)1(2)--------24 (49)28(66)53 (120) %0 ----0 0 50.0 ---- ----49.0 42.4 44.2, 1980-81 N 20(71.)7(8)8(60)10(46)9 (82)3 (42)0(16)3 (22)3 (25)30(87)6 (38)9 (50)108 (557) %28.2 38.9 13.3 21.7 11.0 7.1 0 13.6 12.0 34.5 15.8 18.0 19.4 1981-82 N 5(29)18(70)5 (24)19(95)6 (89)8(53)8 (44)12 (44)22 (73)18(46)8 (47)16(58)145(672) %17.2 25.7 20.8 20.0 6.7 15.1 18.2 27.3 30.1 39.1 17.0 27.6 21.6 Totals N 39(202)30 (119)20(18)31(162)17(209)14(131)11(82)18(84)27(120)52(71)55(172)68(218)382(1788) %19.3 25.2 16.9 19.1 8.1 10.7 13.4 21.4 22.5 30.4 32.0 31.2 21.4 J j 1 --]]i ]I -I j I lJl lJl Table 12.Mortality rates due to winter starvation of radio-collared calf and yearling moose in the Nelchina and Susitna River Basins,1977-1982. Calves Yearlings 11 1978-79 ,!I 1979-80 :Y1977-78 11 1979-80 -1980-81 1980-81 1981-82 Sex F M F R F M It mortalities 1 1 3 8 1 2 ,!I it mos.collars 5.0 5.6 2.6 2.7 9.9 10.5 transmitting (excluding mortali ties) Total It radio-collared 25 26 41 .26 50 37 moose (including mortali ties) Time interval 7 7 5 5 12 12 (II mos.) '&mortality 5.6 4.8 14.1 57.1 2.4 6.2 1/Mild winters21 '!I Severe winters Both mortalities from hunting 1 1 j ]J -]I J I ']a .1 j ':j I Table 13.Mortality rates of adult (>2 y.r.)radio-collared cow moose due to winter starvation and unidentified mortality in the Nelchina and Susitna River Basins of southcentral Alaska from 1976-1982. Year 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980~8l 1981-82 Total #Mortalities 0 1 1 1 2 4 9 x mos.collars transmitting (excluding mortali ties)5.5 11.5 10.6 6.0 10.0 10.4 24.1 VI Total #.radio-collared 0-moose (including mortalities)36 42 45 52 80 82 126 Time Interval (#mos.)12 12 12 12 12 12 12 .\Mortality 0 2.5 2.5 3.9 3.0 5.6 3.6 --I 1 I 1 1 1 1 j I J J 1 ] Table 14.Moose census data and subsequent population estimate for tbe Susitna River Study area,November 1983.. Density stratum HIgh MedIum LOw Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Sample No.,Area Unit Moose (Mi 2 )Unit Moose (Mi 2 )Unit Moose (M1 2 ) 30 .67 19.6 48 43 13.9 41 25 8.1 51 55 13.2 45 24 17.7 3 9 11.3 I 42 80 8.7 6 27 11.2 9 4 13.5 36 32 13.5 4 2 10.0 21 3 12.3 I 27 41 15.9 5 37 14.9 10 2 12.9I'18 42 13.1 28 35 la.s 32 10 11.2 34 29 14.7 2?18 11.6 14 0 20.6 4 48 17.8 22 12 10.9 18 1 17.2 1 49 19.0 13 32 16.3 19 3 19.1 9 64 22.2 11 12 12.5 16 0 10.8 12 57 19.3 39 76 11.6 10 0 8.3 17 39 21.5 7 15 15.0 8 7 17.4 LI1 13 71 14.5 12 9 22.2 18 0 7.1 ~14 25 15.0 6 47 22.5 5 4 14.7 1 72 9.6 8 33 20.1 16 2 19.7 25 13 23.9 3 7 20.0 11 24 11.6 9 3 12.1 19 20 9.9 15 74 13.5 6 55 13.7 2 6 13.9 Totals 15 771 237.6 22 617 330.5 16 77 224.2 Total Number Sample Units 20 43 36 Area of each stratum 320.5 606.5 515.2 Moose density / stratum 3.245 1.867 .343 Moose Pop.Est.1 Stratum 1040 1132 177 Total Moose PopulatIon EStimate -90%C1 -2349 (2093 -2608) Siqhtability Correction Factor =1.19 Corrected Total Moose Population Estimate -2795 (2491 -3101) 2795 ~306 (11.0%) ])-I 1 ]i 1 1 J i J J i J -1 I I Table 15.Estimates of spring moose population size,and causes and magnitude of mortality by sex and age class as determined from modeling the, Susitna River Study Area moose population from 1975-76 to 1981-82. 1 1 1 1 "1 J "'I l 1 I 1 -I 1 Table 15.(cont I d). YeaI!'1979-80 ---1980-81 Age Class Calves Yrlgs.Adults Total Calves Vrlgs.Adults Total Sex:M F M F M F BOtIl M F M F M F Jrotil Spring Population Est.787 787 126 263 424 1506 3893 796 796 386 386 311 1512 4187 Mortality Early Spring and Summer 47 47 0 0 0 0 94 47 47 0 0 0 0 94 . Spring Wolf Predation 21 21 0 1 1 4 48 32 32 2 2 1 6 75 Summer Wolf Predation 14 14 3 6 9 33 79 .18 18 9 9 8 37 99 Brown Bear Predation 276 276 8 16 26 91 693 391 391 21 21 17 82 923 Hunting 0 0 82 0 82 0 164 0 0 0 0 134 0 134 Winter Wolf Predation 18 18 4 8 12 44 104 23 23 13 13 10 50 132 Winter Kill 25 25 1 5 11 49 116 18 18 21 8 5 49 119 , iJl Subtotal 401 401 98 36 141 221 1298 529 529 66 53 175 224 1576 ,\,()\of Population 51.0 51.0 77.8 13.7 33.3 14.7 33.3 66.5 66.5 17.1 13.7 56.3 14.8 37.6 Year 1981-82 Age Class Calves Yrlgs.Adults Total Sex:M F M F M F BOfJl Spring Population Est.814 814 267 267 456 1621 4239 Mortality Early Spring and SUmmer 48 48 0 0 0 0 96 Spring Wolf Predation 40 40 1 1 2 8 92 Summer Wolf Predation 18 18 7 7 11 40 101 Brown Bear Predation 400 400 14 14 25 87 940 ,Hunting 0 0 0 0 153 0 153 Winter Wolf Predation'20 20 8 8 13 46 115 Winter Kill 18 18 14 5 9 53 117 Subtotal 544 544 44 35 213 234 1614 %of Population 66.8 66.8 16.5 13.1 46.7 14.4 38.1 I ~1 J J I J 1 ~l I 1 .'Table 16 •Estimates of spring moose population size,and causes and magnitude of mortality by sex and age class as determined from modeling the moose population in GMU 13 of southcentral Alaska from 1975-76 to 1981-82. 1975-76 1976-77 Calves YrIgs.Adults Total Calves Yrlgs.Adults Total M F M F M F sotn M F M F M F §)£h. Spring Population Est.7230 7230 1098 1098 1269 11822 29807 5598 5598 3356 3356 1129 10062 29099 Mortality Early Spring and Summer 433 433 0 0 0 0 866 335 335 0 0 0 0 670 Spring Half Predation 486 486 11 11 13 123 1130 535 535 33 33 11 98 1245 Summer Holf Predation 209 209 57 57 66 615 1213 156 156 III III 37 333 904 Brown Bear Predation 2124 2124 61 61 70 658 5098 2124 2124 159 159 54 477 5097 Black Bear Predation 90 90 4 4 5 46 239 90 90 11 11 4 34 240 Hunting 0 0 358 0 358 0 716 0 0 366 0 366 0 732 Hinter Holf Predation 299 ·299 80 80 92 865 1715 250 250 176 176 59 526 1437 Hinter Kill 233 233 36 23 27 375 927 141 141 160 73 23 328 866 0'1 Subtotal 3874 3874 607 236 631 2682 11904 3631 3631 1016 563 554 1796 11191 0 %of Population 53.6 53.6 55.3 21.5 49.7 22.6 ,39.9 64.9 64.9 30.3 16.8 49.1 17.9 38.5 1977-78 .1978-79 Calves Yrlgs.Adults Total Calves YrIgs.Adults Total M F M F M F M F M F M F M F BOtll Spring Population Est.5322 5322 1657 1967 2915 11059 28552 5751 5751 1972 1972 3231 10930 29607 Mortality Early Spring and Summer 319 319 0 0 0 0 638 345 345 0 0 0 0 69 Spring Half Predation 333 333 12 12 18 67 775 247 247 9 9 14 49 575 Summer Holf Predation 157 157 65 65 97 368 909 128 128 53 53 87 294 743 Brown Bear Predation 2124·2124 93 93 138 525 5097 2124 2124 93 93 152 513 5099 Black Bear Predation 90 90 7 7 10 37 241 90 90 7 7 11 36 241 Hunting 0 0 428 0 428 0 856 0 0 432 0 432 0 864 Hinter Holf Predation 190 190 78 78 116 440 1092 173 173 70 70 115 390 991 Hinter Kill 137 137 81 42 80 362 839 1608 397 137 43 182 361 2728 Subtotal 3350 3350 764 297 887 1799 10447 4652 .4652 801 275 993 1643 11868 %of Population 62.9 62.9 38.8 15.1 30.4 16.3 36.6 80.9 60.9 40.6 13.9 30.7 15.0 40.5 ~l I ~l J -)J I 1 1 , .., 1980-81 Calves Yrlgs.Mults Total M F M F M F BOth 5958 5958 2555 2555 2833 11509 31418 337 337 0 0 0 0 674 258 285 11 11 12 50 600 123 123 57 57 65 258 683 2124 2124 111 ,111 126 501 5097 90 90 8 8 9 35 240 0 0 0 0 557 0 557 106 106 51 51 58 231 603 180 180 142 56 76 383 1017 3218 3218 380 294 903 1458 9471 54.0 54.0 14.9 11.5 31.3 12.7 30.1 Table 17.Susitna Hydroelectric Project actions and their potential effect on moose numbers,distribution and habitat in the Susitna River Area. .... Project Action Construction and operation of dams (staging zone, camps,and structures) Spoil sites Borrow areas Reservoir clearing Permanent village facilities Main and accessory roads and railroads. Airstrips Transmission line construction, access and operation Fill and operation of impoundments Environmental Effect Loss of winter range. Avoidance of adjacent winter range. Loss of spring-summer range. Avoidance of spring-summer range. Possible impedence to migration. Temporary loss of winter-s1Jllllller range. Temporary avoidance of adjacent hahi tat. Permanent and temporary loss of winter habitat. Permanent and temporary loss of spring-summer habitat. Temporary avoidance of habitat. Loss of habitat. Temporary avoidance of adjacent areas. Loss of habitat. Avoidance of adjacent areas. Loss of habitat. Permanent and temporary avoidance (disturbance) of adjacent habitat. Mortality from collisions. Increased human-related mortality (hunting, defense of life,etc.). Increased commercial and recreational development on adjacent lands. Loss of habitat. Temporary avoidance (disturbance)of adjacent areas. Increased human access and human-related mortality. Temporary avoidance of habitat. Increased access. Temporary loss of habitat. Eventual sUDDller habitat improvement. Potential for increased cOlDlllercial and recreational development Permanent inundation of winter range. Permanent inundation of spring-summer range. Increased snow depths on adjacent area. Increased snow drifting on adjacent areas. Icing on vegetation due to open water. Impedence of movements due to open water during subfreezing temperatures. Increased mortality from attempting to cross thin ice. Impedence of movements and increased mortality due to lce shelving. Increased mortality crossing mud flats. Unstable slopes causing habitat loss. Crowding on adj!iCent habitat. Increased human access. Decreased vegetation productivity on adjacent lands due to climatic changes • Table 18.Potential impacts of Susitna Hydroelectric development on annual moose population parameters. - Moose Populat~on Parameters Reproduction Early spring and summer mortality (excluding predation) Spring wolf predation Summer wolf predation Brown bear predation Black bear predation Projected Impact of Project Events Decline in reproduction due to lower population size resulting from increases in winter mortality,accidental mortality,hunting and predator mortali ty from abnormal concentration of moose and predator. Decreased productivity resulting from decreased vigor because of increased snow depths,decreased quality and quantity of forage from weather,icing,and overbrowsingi increased disturbance (both human and predator).and delayed spring green up. Increase in still births due to reduced vigor of cows. Increases in drowning and accidental deaths. Increase in incidence of disease and pneumonia from delayed greenup,poor nutrition,and more severe weather conditions. Temporary increases in numbers of wolves may be influenced by increased availability of prey leading to increased fecundity, double denning and greater pup survival.Results in increased predation on both calf and adult moose because of abnormal concentrations of 'moose and their reduced health following winter. Short term severe ovemrowsing of moose habitat and increased mortality result 10 lower moose moose densities. Lack of rapid wolf population response to lower moose numbers intensifies effects of predation and lowers moose population further.Eventually results in lower numbers of predators and prey which "stabilize"at low level. Similar to .above. Temporary increases in density of bears due to decreased availability of south facing slopes and forced concentrations. Result:Illcreased predation on calf and adult moose dUe to abnormal conditions of moose and reduced vigor of adults and calves from poor nutrition and.increased winter severity. Bear productivity and survival increase responding to increased availability of prey.Results 10 increases in bear predation on moose and drives moose population lower.Bears I ability to utilize alternate food source maintains abnormal densities of bears for long period and decreases moose population further. Ultimately both bear population and moose population stabilize at lower level. Short term: Bears lose den sites and for short period prey intensively on moose before population declines. Long term: Due to decline in black bear population this source of mortality declines. 63 - .!G'II\iI, .- - Moose Population Parameters HWlter harvest Winter mortality Winter wolf predation Projected Impact of Project Events Potential increase in harvest due to improved access and increased vulnerability caused by moose occupyinq new habitat areas not previously occupied.Depresses bull:cow ratios, possibly leadinq to decreased productivity. Probable that harvests will be limited by requlations;however, dispersal of moose from impoWldment areas could temporarily increase and cause temporary increase in numbers of available moose elseWhere in GMU 13.Ul timately,however,declines "in population size will reduce dispersals and reduce numbers of moose available for harvest. Winter mortality from starvation increases due to overbrowsed range in areas adjacent to impoundments I loss of habitat,icinq on vegetation,increased snow depths and delayed.sprinq green-up. Accidents increase from open water,ice shelvinq,and unstable reservoir ice. Concentrated wolf and moose populations on winter ranqe result in increases in surplus killing by wolves.Moose more vulnerable due to increased snow depths,lower availability of foraqe, poorer quality and quantity of remaininq foraqe. In addition,traditional escape routes no longer available due to ice shelving and Wlstable ice conditions.Increased availability of prey result in wolf population increase.Time laq in response of wolf population to decreased moose density further depresses moose population.Eventually wolf population declines and adjusts to lower moose density.Both populations "stabilize"at lower levels.. 64 =g ..: -c•e•CI•C GI 2 •e ~ s GI•..•c ~ ~ '0.. Cou "•"oa,o..a,.-o •.!.. ,! C :Io CD -o '".. ai . .lC•.!< '!-cou ~-~o..lQ C\j ..-..v·.......,... 1:'.!. 'iiI1:. jle;,. ~•I. \. \. ) ". I t. '\ '-. ". ~\ ~.:1e;,. i\z .. zlw·;{ \. \ ..... - ...... "..., ....en z 0-... -< >.-a: w ct) CD 0 &I. 0 ~ f""'1 - 14 MONTH RIVER .CROSSING INITIATED FIgure 2.Timing of Initiation of moo.e C!ro ••lnQ of the Sualtna Rlyer aboye Devil Canyon. AIa.ka frOm AprU 1980 throuQh December'1982. 66 Q •-=~e ~:-oe =o i 'a ~••.ca •oe-o..a. s·.._. ge..o.;. ~1-~c<-••:t-"--"'=.e ;j-..:t 00--.- :0 ~(IJe--.--05 e.ecceoe ..~ ~:eC=-=2••'a.1i=•eCD ::-c..- -01'aagca g- el e4:1 :i:~..-e-ee 1:0 a.'::0: eO .0;:e e~~eC..;~me;o t'i~ ~~=•Ill'";:'0. . I ~. \ '-. ". ~\ ~.:1 CD'i\z ..zJ lU·i! \. \ -r l-II CJ l- I-e CJ a.CJ <~e a.Q. ~>-~ ~ >-e >- ~Q ~ e z e ~0 j:: CJa:w a: a.III GO l- I Irm~- .. - 67 .- .... """ .5 (II G GIl.. JI: l:I ::Io.. JI:-......•... Eo..-'-•"0o E "-..•~g Io;;•.. 0: •c S••..••••.a ..o • ~.!oc...-2~,,=c _ .! e~ .0 :a -..-..a 0••~C••...·m~..••-,>-=...:5=.-:a -GO 0 ..c-.!~;:1 .a"-c=.~. Qc: .~.~ ~I ::I • SJI: ....- 68 )-1 1 J J J i 1 1 J j )1 1 60-~- ... 40i /\---11e10 0 --11e~ N -1lea N VI z 0 -\-t-30 \<\>\UJ -J \ 0'UJ \1.0 t-\ <20 \I \ C/)\IZ\\I0\"\-I-"/t-""/ \J <10 \/.//>\/a:\.-/ UJ - C/) m 0 0 I "AN I FI:I:I I MAR I APR I MAY I JUN I JUI MONTH Figure 5.Proportion of time 17 radio-collared moo.e were located below 2200'e'evatlon,who.e home range Included the Impoundment lone during March 1981 to Decem~er 1983. 1 ]]J ]...J ·--1 i 1 1 J 1 J Figura I.Wlntar ••v.rlt~Ind~.c.'cu'••'o",from the ,"Iddl.aueltnt RI~er 'e"n,AI.aka,.1878-'"'hrough 1812-83.ba ••d upon .now depth.betwe.n al Januar~end a ".rch at ..anow ataUon •• ./ /' 1877-78 Ut78-78 .-1878-80 1880-81 1881-82 -av.r-.g. ••••••1878-77 ,.,--_.. '.\:(•••.••, •·0.,.. • 0 \..'. .....................:".-........•0""••':--;.~-- ~~:.-\r.~~..... ~:'/••\w• •• •••••••••~.••..• •••••••••••••••••,:/ \;'/y.,.• 3400 3300 3200-t-3100~- Z 3000 0 to-2900 < >2800w ..J w 2700 w CJ <2600 cr W 2500> < 2400 2300 2200 - MONTH Flow.7 ~M....1II0ftthty .'."at'on.occUC'ied by 74 radlo-co.lued moo••fro.Octob.r 1978 througb May 1..2 1ft tile prllWUY Impact zone of th.Su.ltlla project. - 71 1 J I J J J -.1 j J 1 1 J 0--'1 I I J'~ 20 I/) Z 18 0 ~lSi .I I CJ 41Y8l1abli ..~0',Ievatlon (n ..(l6·4) ..,Ievatlonal uuu.br moot •• >v.ar~round (n.168 )' a:1. W UJ In 12 ---J N 0 lL 10 0 w 8 CJ c( 8t- Z W .. 0 a: w 2I Q. '"RAN G E o F ELEVATIONS Figure 8.V.ar-roun(j .Inallonal unu'bv radlo-collar.d moo ..In rtlallCj»ft to Iv.llability In the prlmarv Impact Jon.0'Ihe propoud Walan.Impoundmenl.UI18-U~8a. -1 I 1 1 --l :-1 J -,)1 1 1.-I -"I l 20 o 'I fZ'K1 o F Flgur.8.U••o.varlou.elevallon.by radlo-Gollared moa.e In r.laCian 10 availability during January-May In the primary Impaal zona along Ih.Bu.,lna Rlvar near Walena Cr.ek,Alaeka 'rom 1878-1882. D av.iI.billty of .'op.(n a78)' MODERATE >300 GENTLE 11°-300- rrrrm alop age by lItoo..... llllW ,en=181)' 0 ..........-- Fl.AT ~-1ctt -~ co z .....0-~ < ~,>cr 40 w ""'"(I) ID, 0 II.30 0 III.....CJ C 20~ Z w () £r W 10a.. - - S LOP E ""'10.uae of tttr...'ope claaame.tlona by radlo-collarad moo..In relatiOft to .........Ity In the prlntary Impect zona alOtItI'the Su.ttna RI..n..r Waten.~..k, ~_.frOM 187&-1882. 74 J -,1 1 I ,I IRB..'P.OI untie b»,'-00"• ..»'''''''round (n;1113) o "'allabllll»,.,""'01 (n;(88) UD.ot y.a ...b~..oo ... "u-M n en:;'68) FLATNWw [[ill] 8E I 8 I 8W· ASP E C T E al ao (I) ;z 1&0-.... e(1. >a: w 14 (I)......InV1 o 12 La. 0 10 w CJ 8 c(.... ;z •w 0 a:•w Q.a 0 /'I N I NE flgur'11.V.ar-round and ..alOnal u••o'Ilop,IIP,QI.by radlo-collar.d moo"'"r.latlon to availability In the primary ImpaGt .one .Iong the aUlltna Rlv,r near Watana Cr,'".Alitka 'Jom 1110-1882... 1 I J t "1 I J ~l 10 .... :I II... C» 11),... iIoo••• -<.•e-c•••~c _..-...... 0-D" 11:0 -:I :I =A!.:; ....1:0 ;I....II.• ~O _ ~.. • C ....0'• 'C ... 0' :I PERCENTAGE Of OBSERVATIONS :--J 0\ P'~ §~i~_~i;~I§~!!!li~N.I§lil~llliS~.$!!lil ELEVATION RANGE (FEET) 1-~ Dayallablllty of-.layatloR (na482) [[I]."vatlonal l.I.aQa by moo.a. 8.--Jaft-May (n =11tl) · e·-- · 4-- .. I I"- 2·-- l"-· I"- 0-""r- - ""!-- 8--.... ·- 8-• · 4-. · I"'"" ~ I"'""2'--..... I"'"" : i I"--, iI I-t I ,"-n~r.;.I-1:1 .-.-.-.....-...-.-.-.....-..",~I"I !Iii fir I !II~I I 1 I I I I &1 I I I I I 1 20 1 UJ Z 0 1... <> ~ W 1-CD CD 0 iL.1 0 W CJ < ~ Z w 0 a: w ~ ..- I FI1Iure 1a.u_of .,arto_.....~by rllclio-eo''''M mOo ..front Jallury-May In ,..••tlan to ayailllblflty In the prim.".__t zona alo""tlla sattn.Riwer "....0..,11 Canyan.Ala.k.frolll 187..1882. 7-7 .. 1 1 }i }»-I ~ fLATNWw o .v ....bUl•.,0'IIP.,C'.n,,102) •~.Ptci .,••ga bW moo ••,~.er-round (..~ll.2) 0l1lD IIP.ol u.ega bv lIloo.a,J."-....v (n:ut). 8W ., 8 ASPECT 8E 22 20 (/) Z 180-l- e(18 > a:: w 14 (/) ......In 00 0 12 1L 0 10 W CJ 8e( I- Z •W 0 a::..w 0- 2 0 N I HE I'.E Fig'....14.U..of nln.IIp.cl.bV radlo-collar.d moo ••fro",1tn.-18aa In r.letlon to .v.ll.bIDtv In th.prlmtrW Impact Ion.,h)Ag Iht , 8~.ltn.Rlv.r ",.r D'VII O~nVQn.AI ••k•. - GENTLE 11°--300 S LOP E FLAT 0°-_10° O....I11\0!--- 70 o ..."blllty of ...(n=501) ,.,.,. •slope UNa-by moo... ~(n=294)m .Iope u••ge by moo... ,.-......,en=1. en Z 0 ~ ~-e 50> cr ~w CD CD 0 ~ ~0 W' CJ < ~ Z 20 W 0 cr W 10 CL,.... Flowe t a......of ttwee .....ctuaHtcatIcIM by radlo-ool...ect IItOOM In -relation to J ..........blllty 1ft til.prllll.ry '",p.ct zone .Jong til.Su.ltn.Rlv.r.AI ••k. n ••r D.vll Canyon fro.1878-1882. ..... .... - ,.... - Pre-calving moose .population estimate - ~ Event 1 -Reproduction . ! Event 2 -Early spring and summer mortality (excluding predation) 1 Event 3 -Spring wolf predation (15 May -15 July) 1 Event 4 -Summer wolf predation ... (15 July -1 Nov.).. ~ Event 5 -Brown bear predation ~ EveIJ.t 6 -Black Dear predation 1 Event 7 -Hunter harvest -~ .Event 8 -Winter mortality (excluding predation) l Event 9 -Winter wolf predation (1 Nov.-15 May) Fig.16 Timing and sequence of "factors used in the models to determine the annual population dynamics of moose in the Susitna River Study Area and the entire GMU 13 in southcentral Alaska. 8.0· Proportion Males ,..... - Yearling Females Yearling Fecundity Rate ,...;;::a......, Newborn Calves Male Calves Proportion Females,.,..Adult Fecundity Adult Females Input Variables: (1)Fecundity (2)Fecundity (3)Sex Ratio Rate for Yearlings Rate for Adults at Birth Female Calves Fig.17 Schematic diagram of'Event 1 (reproduction)for. the moose model. 81 r- I - """ Number of Moose by >< sex and age Mortality Rate Number of by sex Deaths by and age .sex and age .. ..... .- - Fig.18 .Input Variables: (1)Mortality Rate for each sex and age group . Schematic diagram of Events 2 and 8 (early spring and winter mortality)for the moose model. 82 - Number of Wolves x Consumption rate per wolf per day Total kgs wolf consumption x Number of Days of Wolf Predation propo~~~~.Yea:lingSand Adults Average Weight of Calf Number of Calves killed Average' Weight of Yearlings and Adults Number of Yearlings and Adults killed - Input Variables: (1)Number of Wolves (2)Consumption Rate of Wolves (3)Number of Days of Wolf Predation (4)Proportion of Wolf Kill Consisting of Calves (5)Uroportion of Wolf Kill Consisting of Yearlings and Adults (6)Average Weight of Calves (7)Average Weight of Yearlings and Adults - E'ig.19-Schematic diagram of Events.3,4 and 9 (wolf predation)for the moose model. 83 _. Maximum Bear Consumption Rate per Bear per Day on calves Maximum Bear Consumption Ra~e per Bear per D~y on Yearlings and Adults Input Var~ables.: (1)Maximum Consumption Rate on Calves (2)Maximum Consumption Rate on Yearlings and Adults (3)Number of Bears (4)Number of Days of Bear Consumption 0 t 2000 a 2000- calves Yearlings plus Adults.-It - Adjusted Adjusted Consumption Consumption Rate on Calves Rate on Yearlings.-and Adults- Number of Bears , --. If Number of Calves Number of Days ~Number of Year- Killed Bear Predation lings &Adults Killed -, - ..... .... .... Fig.20 Schematic diagram of Everits 5 and 6 (brown bear and black bear predation)for the moose model. 84--. ..... Number of Moose by sex and age minus Number of Moose Harvested by sex and age -- Input Variables: (1)Number of Moose Harvested by sex and age Fig.21 Schematic diagram of Event 7 (hunting mortality) for the moose model. 85 ..... ~ I I ai'.. Z ::I'o g zo I I I I "I" -"00••Mod.' - -11100••ob ••r ••d/hour of Go ..po.ltlon counta -••tl.at.b •••d IIpon annuat numb.,of moo••ob ••r ••d/hollr of Gompo.ltlon count.In r ••atlon to 1'80 Go.poattlon Gount .nd G~naua YEA R frl ••~22~No •••b••moo ••populat'on ••t'mat••••d.,I••d frolll mod.llng v.r.u. Gompo ••t'on count.for th.Sueltn.RI ....'Stud,Ar.a of aouthe.ntr••Ala.k.a. 11T&-1188.. 86 .- •N-• ~\at .=-at \-.!-\• \-=\II.-,,0,II.,\,,,~, \-\:5\, \o. \,0 \,-";-..\•.\,-,, I • " ,~..,,,-.I-I I:,,-,~.I:\0,I"I Q.I-I I:,\:.l .!.,",I a:=\,"•~,0 \..,t <II. ~er-"'\I 0\:l t I w GI "ii'.'J I.->~. \~ ,I I: ~,I:••-\..,If I CIl:I .~,.50>0 \"I I •~I ~ I:.I.!'\.w CIl-•I I .=-\:3 t ....>ell I 'aI Q...J,I 0•.\..I a:E..0''."I I I------.0,"l 3'I1:.1:'I:1:.e I: ~:I ~~::I :I •:,..I ~-0 0 o·0 0 0 0 0-0 0'0 0 ~\'t I ( 'aI_.:!0,•~••...••0·'•:a \:"I->................•~,~:.; CIt •CIt at at-•0 .:1 ".,CItE.5 •'1---_._..-\,'. ~:.. I rl -..--•01 ''aI,J.-\:'f-I:'.....-..~at•\~,•--\~II I:'-o· \l\\-.-o.,-~<C..'~, ~:,\Q,=-o~-'11.=-'.aa ~r,.o.o. Ii=••1:.-.•...-.....•.~-::aa-.0 CD ••0 ....('II 0 ...t:: ~....~-Q .. -0 ( 9 a N v 9 n'o H .1 )39 0 0 V4 :I 0 t::I 3 a V4 n N 110- 87. 1 '.I J 80 I I I 1 1 ,]-]1.I I en :t CD 0 CD 0 0 0....... CI) w > -J -< 0 60 ..0 30 20 10 .",..//"-/~-- //....//--_//--- //'/- ./;"" .// /' -Modal --oompo.ltlOn oount. 0'1 I _ I . I .•.I I I I I figure If.i.Umltad moo ..oal';oow 'Itlo.derived 'rom mod,lIng vert ...all':oow ,.Uo.oblllnid ',om annuli oompo.ltlon aounl.In Ih lIu.Unl River Study Are ••·Ufl-lell. .. I /. I I I I I'/ I "/ "I"/I "I I I I I ~ -mode' --compoallloll count a ~I \ I ~. I I I-__I -_I --I._~ -... a: 4( w > - - 0-...-+---+0---+----1----1---+----1---10---10 YEAR Flgure'25.Percent y.arllng bull.In moo.e population••ach fan ••determined from ..odellng venua co..po.ltlon counta for the Sualtn.River Study Are••1975-1982. 89 -J 1 1 -I _/------....-.-..__.-- 19811980 -brown b.a,predation -wol'pr,datlon - -llVlnt.r kill ----------------- 1979 /'/,. /' /' /' /' 1978197119781976 60-w CJ c(....z 40w 0 0: 1 \0 ~ 0 -30>I---'.c(.... 0:o 20 ::i w (J) a 0::i ·10 u. -'.c( 0 0 YEA R Flgur,21.Annuli ,.t••0'GI"",00"mortallt"du.to pr'd,tiqn ~nd winter kll~••dltermln,d 'rom mod,lIng .the IUlltna RI".,Study Ar ••11100 ••POPUlltiOft,1816-1881. 19811980 .0: o 0 c • • 0 o •. . o 0··o·o·o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o. o o o o···o o o ,0 o.'o o o. o o o o o. o. o o o o ,-·o·o..··o·o o 0' o. o. •o···~~-~--.-...,0'"~""./:. ,-""0,/: wi'0·o··o o................ 19791978 YEA R 1977 •••00 hunting brown bear predation -wolf predation winter kill . o... o o o o.. o. o.....-.......•c o o o•. o..'......... o......... o.... ·0 • ·0 •-.....--0 • fl.._-....-....... 2 01 ............--~~--....---+----+---.....--.....----119751976 18 -w CJ 18< I- Z W 0a::14 W l:L...... >12I-_. ....Ii.<.... 0::: 0 10 2' w. tD 0 0 2 CJz-....I 8a::<w > ""'"r - - - FIgur.270 Annual percent yearlln4 bull moo.e mortaJlty due to .eve,.a'mortality, factora aa det_mlned front mod.lln~the Su.'tna River Study Area In .outhcentra' A'a."a.1875-1981. 91 - -2 - 1 r- 10 II-_•••••••••••••.• .. hunting brown bear predation wolf predation wlnt.r kill ............................----.-.------- ... ···•••• • •./...-"'"-............... -----.-_~."..,............-..- 3 5 8_. W C-' c( J- Z 7 LU (,) l:C W ~_e >...._. ..I c(.... l:Co 2 w CDoo 2 .... ..I ::) Q < ..... - - - .... - O.........----!----+----....--~~---+-...1'!"'·9.....8-0-+----+1975 1978 1977 1978 1979 1981 yeA R "gur.28.Annual adult moo••mortality rat ••by cau ••••d.termln.d from modeUng the s.a.Una Alv.r Study Ar••moo ••population In southe.ntra'Ai•••••187~-1881. 92 .-. •...-c :=- :I o,c 0 .c::I "0 .....0 e -a,0 .c e,C .0 :-'0•.0:..- "-e_ ce ..-0 00 .a-•-Q 0 0.Ii Q,•.,e.'-0 .0 0 :0 00" 0 Oc 0_a QO Eo I j \ \ \ \ \- \ \ \ / / I I \. \ \ \ \ \ \ I I I I o ClI CSONYSnOH.l)3S00W:l0 Y3SWnN ~---1:---+----+---1---+--- 000 ~0 0 0 •••ft ~• a: ol( w > ee•C!J..o.'..-C ::t 0"o C ~-..o. too..::t C C•-:I-e..•.'at C=-."oa Iio·..--. -a 0.co .:-la--..I••"....ca.-••.~••••§~-.-.~ c:c: 0'.;"0.,.c:--:1:= Qog,--eo3., o·s::: -c.:a....c••cae OIl..Q... :lc Q-~2 S.lNnOO NOl.llSOdWOO :10 ynOH/03AY3SS0 3S00.,:10 l::I3SWnN 93 1 J J 1 ~l 1 ]J ]1 OJ \ \ .'\ \\..------------- t.O ~ -W CJ-<I- Z Woa:w Q.- >- !:::: ..J-<I-a:o :i w C/)oo ::E u. ..J c(o 40 80 20 10 j' 1 1 1 I I I__J------------ 1\ I \"\1 \ \ \ .-.-brown bear predation -wolf preda'~" - -win ••,kll I I \ I I I 0'1 I I I I I I I 1876 1878 .'~77 1878 YEA R 1878 1880 1881 ,Igur.aO.I;:.U......dannu.1 ,at••o'oa"...ort..lltr 'fe-m pr,d.tlop .~cj Wlnt.,kill d.....ptln.d 'ro......od.llng the Glm. Manaa.mlnt U"lt 1:t moo ..populallon of loutholnt,.1 AI ••ka.181O-1881~. i 1 1 14 1 1 )-I )1 J J )I 1 1 ~ U1 ,... UJ CJ 01( I- Z UJo 0: LUa.- )-, I--'-1 01( t-o: "0 ::t LUenoo 2 I- ..J :lo c( 12 10 8 8 • 2 •••••huntklu ,&VQwn ~Ir pre.tlon -w.Q1,predation - -winter kill ---..".-.....--...~---...--__--:'T_-~~u ....-~----;...a..:.•••.........T ••••••~•••••••••••••••----------.....-.....------- 'O~1976 1 1878 I 1877 11'878'I 1878 11980't 1881 ,I YEA R flg~r.11.Annu,l O.m,U.n.u.....n.Unl.11 .duet moo ..mor ••IIt",.t,.from four '"otor...tlm.led frorn modelJnu.18115-1881.. 96 ~ .....J •••••-I-~-r--I--r--I--r--I--r--I GAME MANAGEMENT UNIT 18 WOLVES GAME MANAGEMENT UNIT 13 MOOSE (THOUSANDS) •»••o 0 000 -r-t---r-t--r-t---r-I SUSITNASTUDY AREA MOOSE (THOUSANDS) '-'" ~ - ~ - ..,.) ..... .....i ,-- .... - ,. •oo •o •oo •oo •o •oo •o•o •oo SUSITNA STUDY AREA WOLVES -C>..... Oil /1 I -'I /-I CD ,....:10 I, -I I IC>\.......\ i: ~I "'-/1 I I ~I III ~/~I \ oG)eG)\c:~C 'I: ~I ~·c~c \--=.,=.,\e.e.CD··.·\- - cE c:.1 \A'OAOoc-oc 0 \~I ·c '.>->... \......• •\•• E 1 \c c-cc•-•• >. "IE •c:... o·-.•10.o • c->:=.•=:Ie--..- =It -,-. >=."11 .0' ~o ~.•-c e .,.:1 .•A I--..,0.=~"0 "c;--0- :I-..••:I Go• IF•--••:I G)••B•c:,to( e :I-m CI•!I >•=-c :D=;;-••:I A-:r• 0c ~-=• 2<-.. e--cc.oc ...J - LITERATURE CITED Ballard,W.B.and K.P.Taylor.1980.Upper Susitna Valley moose population study.Alaska Dept.Fish and Game.P-R Proj.Final Rep.,W-17-9,W-17-10,and W-17-11.102 pp. and C.L.Gardner.1980.Nelchina yearling moose mortality study.Alaska Dept.Fish and Game.P-R Proj. Rept.,W-17-11 and W-21-1,22 pp. S.D.Miller,and T.H.Spraker.1980.Moose calf mortality study.Alaska Dept.Fish and Game.P-R Proj. Final Rep.,W-17-9,W-17-10, W-17-11,and W-21-1.123pp. ,T.H.Spraker,and K.P.Taylor.1981a.Causes of------ neonatal moose calf mortality in southcentral Alaska.J. Wildl.Manage.45(2):335-342. R.O.Stephenson,and T.H.Spraker.1981b.Nel- china Basin Wolf Studies.Alaska Dept.Fish and Game.P-R Proj.Final Rep.,W-17-9 and W-17-10.201pp. _______,C.L.Gardner, Susitna Hydroelectric Game Studies,Vol.V, Anchorage ..220pp. J.H.Westlund,and J.R.Dau.1982a. Project.Phase I Final Report,Big Wolf.Alaska Dept.Fish and Game, ..... ,C.L.Gardner,and S.D.Miller.1982b.Ne1china------- Yearling Moose Mortality Study.Alaska Dept.Fish and Game. I P-R Proj.Final Rep.,W-21-1 and W-21-2.37pp. ,R.O.Stephenson,S.D.Miller,K.B.schnei1fr,and S.H.Eide.In Prep.Ecological studies of timbetilli wolves and predator-prey relationships in southcentra1 lliiA1aska. IWild1.Monogr..:! 97 -----~--_._---,,-~~_._----------------------- -Blood,D.A.1974.Variation in reproduction and productivity of an enclosed herd of moose (Alees alees).Trans.Int. Congr.Game Biol.XI:59-66. Eide,S.and W. killing of 96:87-88. B.Ballard. caribou by 1982. gray Apparent case wolves.Can. of surplus Field-Nat. -Floyd,T.J.,L.D.Mech,and P.A.Jordan.1978. scat content to prey c;onsumed.J.Wildl. 528-532. Relating wolf Manage.42 (3): ..... Fuller,T.K.and L.B.Keith.1980.Wolf population dynamics and prey relationships in northeastern Alberta.J.Wi Idl. Mgmt.44:583-602 . Gasaway,W.C.1978.Moose survey procedures development. Alaska Dept.Fish and Game.P-R Proj.Rep.47pp. .... __________-,S.J.Harbo,and S.D.Dubois. procedures development.Alaska Dept. Proj.Rept.87pp. __________,S.D.Dubois,and S.J.Harbo. Procedures Development.Alaska Dept. Proj.Final Rept.66pp. 1979.Moose survey Fi sh and Game.P-R 1982.Moose Survey Fish and Game.P-R .... ..... __________,R.Stephenson,J.Davis,P.Shepherd,and o.Burris . 1983.Inter-relationships of moose,man,wolves and al ter- nate prey in Interior Alaska.Wildl.Mongr.No.84.50pp. Hayne,D.W.1978.ExperimentaL designs and statistical analy- sis in small mammal population studies.Pages 3-10 in A.P. Snyder,ed.Populations of small mammals under natural con- ditions.Vol.5,Spec.Publ.Ser.,Rymatuning Lab.of Ecol.,Univ.of Pittsburg,Pittsburg. 98 Miller,S.D.and W.B.Ballard.1982a.Homing of transplanted Alaskan brown bears.J.WildI.Manage.46:869-876. and 1982b.Density and biomass estimates for an interior Alaskan brown bear Ursus arctos population. Can.Field Nat.:96 (4):448-454. Mohr,C.o.1947.Table of equivalent populations of North American small mammals.Am.MidI.Nat.37 (1):223-249. Taylor,K.P.and W.B.Ballard.1979.Moose habitat use along the Susitna River near Alaska.Proc.N.Am.Moose Conf.Workshop, 169-186pp. movement sand Devi 1 Canyon, Kenai,Alaska. VanBallenberghe,V. Trans-Alaskan Fish and Game. 1978.Final report on the effects of the Pipeline on moose movements.Alaska Dept. 44pp. Viereck,L.A.and C.R.Dyrness.1980.A preliminary classifi- cation system for vegetation in Alaska.U.S.For.Serv., Gen.Tech.Rept.PNW-106,38pp. 99 --I ---1 !)1 )1 Appendix A.Seasonal and total home range sizes of individual radio-co11ared moose studied in the Ne1china and upper Susitna River Basins of southcentra1 Alaska from October 1976 through early June 1982. Moose Sex-Age Period ,Total'Summer Winter Total Maximum 10#at Capture Monitored locations Home Range 1/Home Range 1/Home Range 2/length of range (mo.,yrl km a mi a-km 2 .roTa km a mP km mi -- 249 M-Calf 3/79-5/81 10 ----128.0 49.4 232.5 89.8 23.7 14.7 268 M-Calf 3/79-3/80 7 ----45.9 17.7 150.8 58.2 20.8'13.0 271 M-Calf 3/79-8/80 8 159.4 61.5 70.6 27.3 1252.9 483.8 60~8 37.8 294 M-Calf 4/79-5/81 9 ~2.2 12.4 322.9 124.7 537.6 207.6 88.5 55.0 301 M-Calf 4/79-5/81 7 ----151.3 58.4 163~9 63.3 32.9 20.5 375 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 ----14.9 5.8 285.4 110.2 37.4 23.3 376 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 7 ----186.8 82.1 358.5 138.4 56.3 35.0 379 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 7 ----177.5 68.5 177.5 68.5 25.1 15~6 381 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 ----2.0 0.8 3.8 1.5 5.1 3.1 382 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 ----138.3 53.4 138.3 53.4 18.0 11.2 388 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 9 ----438.0 169.1 583.5 225.3 50.2 31.2 391 M Calf 11/79-6/81 8 •----79.2 30.6 108.8 42.0 33.6 20.9 392 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 ----72.7 28.1 134.2 51.8 36.4 22.6....393 M-Calf 11/79-3/81·7 ----37.0 14.3 37.0 14.3 12.1 7.50 0 395 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 7 ----103.3 40.0 256.8 99.2 41.1 25.5 396 M-Calf 11/79-6/81 8 ----35.2 13.6 44.4 16.0 16.0 10.0 398 M-Calf 11/79-9/81 9 ----74.4 28.7 85.2 32.9 21.4 13.3 399 M-Calf 11/79-12/80 7 ----78.6 30.3 78.6 30.3 15.1 9.4 400 M-Calf 11/79-6/81 9 ----46.9 18.1 64.5 24.9 15.2 9.4 402 M-Ca,lf 11/79-6/81 8 ----56.~21.7 86.7 33.5 22.2 13.8 408 M-Calf 11/79-5/81 9 ----9.4 3.6 48.0 18.5 19.2 11.9 670 M-Calf 3/81-6182 4 ------ -- 16.9 7.9 672 M-Calf 3/81-6/82 20 168.9 --790.7 --1001.1 --51.0 674 M-Calf 3/81-6/82 22 694.8 --305.4 --1112.1 --69.2 675 M-Calf 3/81-6/82 18 324.7 48.4 411.2 44.1 676 M-Calf 3/81-6/82 20 424.2 207.7 542.0 50.2 677 M-Calf 3/81-4/82 17 409.4 211.9 512.0 33.3 690 K-Calf 3/81-6/82 18 70.0 41.7 137.5 21.4 696 M-Calf 5/81-6/82 15 191.8 440.7 579.0 64.0 667 M-2 yr.3/81-6/82 18 261.7 48.7 261.7 19.4 626 M-5 yr.4/80-8/81 19 91.1 35.2 21.0 8.1 91.1 35.2 16.2 10.1 627 M-4 yr.4/80-9/80 12 50.7 19.6 ----127.6 49.3 22.4 13.9 642 M-4 yr.4/80-5/82 34 148.0 118.5 214.1 21.5 682 M-Adult 3/81-5/81 5 ----.5.5 2.1 75.7 29.2 14.4 9.0 225 F-Calf 3/79-11/80 7 -- -- 43.3 16.7 43.3 16.7 19.3 12.0 262 F-Calf 3/79-11/81 8 36.7 14.2 --189.7 73.3 26.5 16.4 264 F-Calf 3/79-5/81 11 58.9 22.7 153.1 59.1 174.2 67.3 23.4 14.5 269 F-Calf 3/79-5/81 13 40.2 15.5 70.6 27.3 166.2 64.2 29.6 18.4 274 F-Calf 3/79-7/79 5 --------97.0 37.5 37.0 23.0 290 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 11 75.6 29.2 846.2 326.7 1833.5 708.0 131.0 81.4 291 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 9 12.5 4.8 136.3 52.6 155.0 59.8 20.4 12.7 293 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 9 2.3 0.9 161.5 62.4 161.6 62.4 40.5 25.2 297 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 9 18.8 7.3 191.1 73.8 213.9 82.6 37.2 23.1 298 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 9 10.7 4.1 37.5 14.5 186.9 72.2 48.4 30.1 299 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 8 12.7 4.9 82.5 31.8 136.2 52.6 30.8 19.2 300 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 8 3.2 1.2 ----16.1:"6.2 8.2 5.1 1 I )1 J ]J - 1 ~J j !1 -1 ) Appendix A.(cont'd) Moose Sex-Age·Period Total #SUBDDer ~Unte-r--Total Maximum 10#at Capture Monitored locations Home Range 1/Home Range 1/Home Range 2/length of range (mo.I yr)km 2 mi 2-km 2 mi 2-km 2 mi'%km mt -- 302 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 10 258.5 99.8 91.7 35.4 462.6 178.6 54.9 34.1 303 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 9 99.4 38.4 22.5 8.7 152.5 58.9 19.8 12.3 305 F-Calf 4/79-3/81 9 5.3 2.0 162.0 62.5 '172.6 66.6 25.5 15.9 306 F-Calf 4/79-12/81 8 ----227.2 87.7 312,1 "120.5 32.3 20.1 307 F-Calf 4/79-5/81 8 7.2 2.8 96.3 37.2 201.7 77.9 58.8 36.2 308 F~Calf 4/79-5/81 7 13.5 5.2 --73.0 28.2 20.5 12.7 377 F-Calf 11/79-6/81 8 ----221.8 85.6 224.4 86.6 33.2 20.6 378 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 ----223.2 86.2 225.1 86.9 33.2 20.6 380 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 -- -- 112.5 43.5 183.9 71.0 36.7 22.8 383 F-Calf 11/79-7/80 5 ----26.?10.4 85.0 32.8 23.2 14.4 384 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 ----37.9 14.6 83.5 32.3 31.6 19.6 386 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 --'T-186.9 72.1 257.1 99.3 68.8 42.7 387 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 9 ----96.8 37.4 112.1 43.3 28.7 17.8 389 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 7 ----161.1 62.2 206.7 79.8 27.6 17.1.....390 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 --131.2 50.7 143.8 55.5 25.2 15.70--.....394 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 6 -- -- 88.7 34.2 169.8 65.6 26.4 16.4 397 F-Calf 11/79-9/81 8 ----7.5 2.9 34.4 13.3 16.3 10.1 403 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 8 ----156.3 60.4 167.1 64.5 23.5 14.5 404 F-Calf 11/79-5/81 10 ----34.9 13.5 47.8 18.2 15.7 9.8 406 F-Calf 11/79-6/81 9 ----119.4 46.1 121.1 46.8 26.2 16.3 407 F-C'\lf 11/79-5/81 8 ----95.8 37.0 95.8 37.0 21.4 13.3 669 F-Calf 3/81-12/81 12 305.2 ,--391.5 668.9 44.4 678 F-Calf 3/81-6/82 20 185.1 132.1 430.9 41.9 679 F-Calf 3/81-2/82 16 92.1 39.2 132.6 20.2 681 F-Calf 3/81-4/81 4 4.3 4.3 3.9 685 F-Calf 3/81-6/82 19 458.5 3247.5 3979.3 107.8 686 F-Calf 3/81-6/82 19 549.2 22.8 549.2 54.6 689 F-Calf 3/81-5/82 15 142.8 149.1 443.0 62.4 693 F-Calf 3/81-6182 17 148.3 53.1 433.6 33.8 246 F-2 yr.3/79-8/79 6 5.9 2.3 ----15.9 6.1 8.4 5.3 633 F-2 yr.4/80-6/80 5 --------3.6 1.4 9.2 5.7 680 F-2 yr.3/81-8/81 5 -- -- 2.6 1.0 7.8 3.0 5.7 3.6 701 F-2 yr.10/76-9/78 32 914.3 353.0 638.7 •246.6 1321.8 510.4 66.6 41.4 726 F~2 yr.3/77-4/79 28 409.4 158.1 237.3 91.6 539.0 208.1 47.2 29.3 617 F-Adult 4/80-6/82 l2 69.3 60.9 88.9 14.7 618 F-13 yr.3/77-5/79 4tao-7/81 47 78.4 30.3 59.6 23.0 112.4 43.4 22.8 14.2 619 F-9 yr.4/80-6/82 37 162.5 202.3 237.9 45.7 622 F-12 yr.4/80-6/82 38 156.4 68.9 171.3 22.0 623 F-8 yr.8/78-12/78 4/80-6/82 25 1507.2 815.8 1703.4 63.0 624 F-10 yr.4/80-5/82 32 303.9 155.8 370.9 45.6 625 F-13 yr.4/80-6/80 6 5.0 1.9 -- -- 12.8 4.9 fJ.7 6.0 628 F-12 yr.4/80-6/72 36 101.9 281.2 312'.7 51.3' 629 F-3 yr.4/80-6/82 ,35 42.2 33.5 78.6 15.1 630 F-6 yr.4/80-6/82 36 117.7 9.1 131.9 29.8 631 F-10 yr.3/77-4/77 4/80-10/81 27 50.5 73.8 130.8 21.0 1 ]]J j 1 J 1 -J Appendix A.(cont Id) Moose Sex-Age PE;!rlod Total #Summer Winter Total MaxlmUlD 10#at Capture Monitored locations Home Range 1/Home Range 1/Home Range 2/length of range (mo.,yr)km 1 mi 2-km 2 mi 2-km 2 mi 2-km mi -- 632 F-11 yr.4/80-9/80 14 40.7 15.7 ----48.6 ,18.8 16.3 10.1 634 F-12 yr.4/80-6/82 35 156.5 48.6 187.5 20.1 635 F-Adult 4/80-6/82 38 152.1 242.9 475.7 43.4 636 F-4 yr.4/80-6/82 33 65.8 204.6 222.0 26.2 637 F-Adult 4/80-6/82 36 190.1 122.6 206.9 22.9 638 F-Adult 4/80-7/81 20 62.8 24.3 58.5 22.6 78.6 30.3 25.1 15.6 639 F-4 yr.4/80-6/82 36 386.9 553.2 700.8 46.2 640 F-5 yr.4/80-6/82 32 49.9 171.7 197.9 20.5 641 F-12 yr.4/80-5/82 38 121.8 127.2 163.4 18.0 643 F-Adu1t 4/80-6/82 36 115.4 92.8 149.8 25.5 644 F-Adu1t 4/80-6/82 36 124.6 104.9 158.4 21.8 645 F-10 yr.4/80-6/82 34 49.8 180.6 241.6 25.3 647 F-13 yr.4/80-3/82 35 108.8 200.3 299.9 28.1 .....648 F-4 yr.4/80-6/82 35 151.4 124.2 273.8 38.7 0 649 F-Adult 4/80-6/82 36 36.8 108.7 115.2 16.8 N 650 F-4 yr.4/80-6/82 39 317.8 193.2 550.2 50.5 651 F-6 yr.8/78-3/79 4/80-:"/81 23 47.3 18.3 42.6 16.5 70.9 H.4 13.4 8.3 652 F-13 yr.4/80-6/82 36 177.0 71.7 177.0 27.0 653 F-13 yr 4/80-6/82 37 55.6 I'178.7 198.1 26.3 654 F-9 yr.4/80-6/82 33 68.3 82.7 122.5 17.8 655 F-16 yr.4/80-6/82 34 114.7 61.7 187.7 20.6 656 F-13 yr.4/80-1/81 18 43.6 16.8 0.4 0.2 44.3 17.1 9.3 5.8 662 F-4 yr.3/77-10/77 6/80-6/82 46 63.0 49.3 69.6 13.6 663 F-8 yr.10/76-4/79 8/80-6/82 76 428.3 318.4 ,515.0 42.2 664 F-Adult 10/76-4/79 6/80-4/82 56 73.1 28.2 2388.9 922.4 2910.5 1123.8 106.3 66.1 666 F-9 yr.3/81-10/81 10 50.5 ----100.1 17.1 668 F-8 yr.3/81-6/82 19 241.0 169.3 .715.7 49.4 671 F-4 yr.3/81-6/82 18 81.2 240.8 542.7 46.6 683 F-9 yr.3/81-6/82 19 59.3 28.4 68.8 14.0 684 F-8 yr.3/81-6/82 19 89.7 62.3 .168.5 28.8 687 F-4 yr.3/81-5/82 17 212.0 52.3 493.0 50.4 688 F-Adu1t 3/81-5/82 18 124.7 41.1 222.1 35.9 691 F-9 yr.3/81-6/82 19 76.7 33.8 130.6 27.9 692 F-9 yr.3/81-12/81 11 82.7 -- -- 313.6 51.8 694 F-13 yr.3/81-6/82 19 22.9 48.5 96.0 20.2 695 F-Adult 5/81-6/82 17 143.9 62.7 171.2 26.8 697 F-Adult 3/81-6/82 17 261.5 78.6 443.2 37.1 698 F-8 yr.3/77-11/78 21 38~3 14.8 68.9.26.6 90.9 35.1 20.0 12.4 700 F-7 yr.10/76-11/77 21 880.6 340.0 627.1 242.1 1353.3 522.5 66.1 41.0 702 F-7 yr.10/76-5/79 40 148.3 57.3 173.8 67.1 567.6 219.1 43.8 27.2 . 703 F-10 yr..10/76-3/79 30 193.1 74.5 93.5 36.1 261.6 101.0 24.1 15.0 704 F-Adu1t 10/76-4/79 22 151.2 58.4 121.7 47.0 283.6 109.5 29.8 18.5 705 F-9 yr.10/76-3/79 32 99.2 38.3 334.9 129.3 352.5 136.1 33.1 20.6 706 F-Adu1t 10/76-4/79 42 157.1 60.7 93.6 36.1 185~2 71.5 21.8 13.6 __J __1 -~]J ]'j -'~I J Appendix A.(cont'd) Moose Sex-Age Period Total #Summer Hinter Total MaXImum 10#at Capture "MQnitQJed ..,,~~locations Home Range 1/Home Range 1/Home Range 21 length of range (mo.,yr)km 2 mi 2-km 2 mi 2-km 2 mP-km mi -- 707 F-7 yr.10/76-3/79 43 344.5 133.0 516.6 199.5 657.4 253.8 52.9 32.9 708 F-8 yr.10/76-4/79 39 252.1 97.3 136.8 52.8 454.1 175.4 50.0 31.0 709 F-4 yr.10/76-3/79 29 361.3 139.5 111.2 42.9 390.0 150.6 30.4 18.9 710 ,F-6 yr.10/76-10/77 16 39.8 15.4 33.0 12.8 57.7 23.0 13.5 8.4 711 F-7 yr.10/76-3/79 31 143.4 55.4 48.3 18.6 l41.0 48.3 17.9 11.1 712 F-7 hr.10/76-10/78 38 628.7 242.7 20.7 8.0 717~2 276.9 61.1 38.0 713 F-9 yr.10/76-5/78 23 42.6 16.5 41.9 20.0 81.1 31.3 13.5 8.4 714 F-7 hr.10/76-10/78 40 268.9 103.8 246.8 95.3 411.3 158.8 33.6 20.9 715 F-Adult 10/76-4/78 21 46.2 17.8 15.0 5.8 59.9 23.1 15.7 9.7 716 F-Adu1t 10/76-3/79 31 118.3 45.7 32.0 12.3 149.5 57.7 24.9 15.4 717 F-4 yr.10/76-4/79 '30 287.5 111.0 224.5 86.7 377.4 145.7 33.6 20.8 718 F-7 yr.3/77-5/79 26 544.6 210.3 143.9 55.6 544.6 210.3 39.1 24.3 719 F-4 yr.3/77-4/79 35 96.7'37.3 14.0 5.4 104.8 40.5 16.5 10.2 720 F-12 yr.3/77-2/79 35 565 21.8 73.6 28.4 106.7 41.2 14.9 9.3......721 F-3 yr.3/77-3/79 25 48.2 18.6 101.2 39.1 173.0 66.8 19.7 12.20w722F-13 yr.3/77-3/79 28 1131.3 436.8 155.8 60.2 1182.7 .456.7 99.8 62.0 723 F-8 yr.3/77-4/80 28 53.1 20.5 28.11 11.1 64.2 24.8 12.0 7.5 724 F-13 yr.3/77-1/79 38 163.7 63.2 214.0 83.0 271.3 104.7 34.8 21.6 725 F-4 yr.3/77-10/79 33 1139.1 439.8 725.4 280.1 2269.0 876.1 169.4 105.2 728 F-Adult 3/77-5/79 28 197.7 76.3 12.9 5.0 236.7 91.4 35.5 22.1 729 F-7 yr.3/77-6/79 38 122.0 47.1 81.8.31.2 172.1 66.4 26.8 16.7 730 F-11 yr.3/77-3/79 28 47.4 18.3 64.1 24.8 121.7 47.0 19.8 12.3 731 F-Adu1t 3/77-4/79 35 42.0 16.2 37.9 14.6 63.3 24.4 15.1 9.4 732 F-lO yr.3/77-3/79 25 32.1 12.4 41.0 15.8 76.1 29.4 16.9 10.5 733 F-3 yr.3/77-3/79 26 49.9 19.3 35.0 13.5 99.4 38.4 14.8 9.8 735 F-16 yr.8/78-3/79 8 10.5 4.1 18.4 7.1 37.7 14.5 14.4 9.0 736 F-Adu1t 10/77-2/79 8 -- -- 21.3 8.2 64.9 25.1 29.1 18.1 737 F-Adult 10/77-11/79 6 --------72.7 28.1 23.7 14.7 739 F-Adu1t 10/77-2/79 8 16.0 6.2 18.9 7.3 53.4 20.6 12.5 7.7 740 F-Adult lO/77-10/78 9 12.3 4.8 8.2 3.2 32.1 12.4 8.9 5.5 741 F-Adult 8/78-4/79 8 --------'179.0 69.1 23.8 14.8 761 F-4 yr.4/82-6/82 6 --------344.6 --36.3 762 F-4 yr.'4/82-6/82 6 --------142.5 --29.3 763 F-4 yr.4/82-6/82 8 12.2 ------41.9 --22.5 764 F-4 yr.4/82-6/82 9 57.8 --19.0 --106.4 --35.9 765 F-14 yr 4/82-6/82 8 18.7 --7.0 --89.9 --53.8 Y Not determined if 3 or less observations;summer'=months of May,June,Ju1y,Auqust,September,and October;winter =months of Novemb~r, December,January,February,March and April. 21 Not determined if 4 or less observations.t· -APPENDIX B.Comparison of annual horne ranges of selected radio-collared adult moose from 1976-1982 in GMU-13 of southcentral Alaska. 104 - - Yr. 80 81 11617 Home Range Size (km2 ) 3,456 7,972 If Location 22 15 105 Area of overlap -3,224 km~ .... .- 11 1/618 Yr. 77 78 79 80 Home Range Size (km2 ) 6,061 2,615 2,615 1,854 13 12 5 12 ea of 77-78 overlap -1,786 km 2 ea of 78-79 overlap -2,614 km 2 ea of 79-80 overlap -983 km 2 106 - - - - .- ~ 11619-Home Range .II Yr.Size (km 2 )Location 80 9,593 16 81 13,770 16 Area of 80-81 overlap a 6,198 km 2 - 107 ~, IF622 - Home Ran~e IF IiYr.Size (Ian )Location \-i \ 80 9,367 20 \ 81 6,373 14 \ \ Area of \ - - .... ..... 108 - r- I .... - 11623~ Home Range II !""'"Yr.Size (lan2 )Location 78 305 5 80 17 9 057 10 81 54 9 451 6 Area of 78-80 overlap ..-- Area of 8D-81 overlap ..5 9 894 lan 2 ..... 109 """ ~ fl628 ..... Home Ran~e II Yr.Size (km )Location 80 8,093 16 81 25,668 15 Area of 80-81 overlap ..7.238 km 2 110 .- ,, Home Range II ~Yr.Size (km 2 )Location '80 4,209 16 81 .6,940 14 ~ Area of 80-81 overlap =3,493 km 2 III 11630..... Home Range Ij ~Yr.Size (km2 )Location 80 1,122 17 . 81 4,244 15 Area of 80-81 overlap.1,091 1an 2 ~ 112 /1631 ,~\Home Ran~e /1 \Yr.LocationSize(lan ) 80 9,494 15 81 182 7 of 80-81 overlap •181 lan 2 - 113 - - Home Ran~e /I Yr.Size (laD )Location 80 .8,912 15 81 15,894 15 Area of 80-81 overlap ..8,243 km2 114 1/635 Yr. 80 81 Home Range Size (1an 2 ) 6~205 29,244 II Location 19 14 115 Area of 80-81 overlap =6,143 km 2 - .•..il...!....f ;e ... - 116 ",., .... 11637 Home Ran~e Yr.Size (km ) :~ 80 4,837 18 81 17,835 .14 ~ km 2Areaof80-81 overlap =4,018 117 ..... ""'" - Home Range II Yr.Size (1an 2 )Location 80 20,471 18 81 40,773 13-.Area q£80-81 overlap =11;888 1an 2 118 \ ~ 11640-Home Range # Yr.Size (km 2 )Location 80 3,120 16 81 19,728 13 Area of 80-81 overlap •3,118 km 2 ...... 119 120 \ I""" , 1"'" Home Range /1 Yr.Size (km2 )Location SO 12,666 20 Sl 10,106 14 ".,. Area of S0-81 overlap ,.7,988 lan 2 -i ..... - - - .- - 1'642 .-Rome Ran~e I'!!.:.Size (km )Location 80 8,094 15-81 11,809 14 Area of 80-81 overlap -4,169 km,2 .~ ....,. - 121 - ..... "'"'! - tF643 Home Ran~e IF Yr.Size (kIn )Location 80 10,030 19 81 5,979 12..- Area of 80-81 over~ap ,.4,960 km2 - 122 -- - .- - Yr. Home Ran~e Size (lem ) 80 11,186 15 81 12,018 15 82 1,997 4 Area of 80-81 overlap s 9.616 km 2 Area of 81-82 overlap s 1.940 km 2 123 ..... ~1/645 Home Ra~e 1/ Yr.Size (kIn )Location 80 7,949 15 ~81 011,788 15 Area of 80-81 overlap •4,018 km 2 - 0 124 ~ 11647 Home Ran~e II. Yr.Size (km )Location. 80 6,975 21 F'"81 25 t 907 13 Area of 80-81 overlap ..4,770 km 2 r 125 .... -I tl648 Home Ran~e tF Yr.Size (km.)Location 80 12,930 17 81 16,522 15 Area of 80-81 overlap -8,608 km.2 126 .-/1649 Home Range /1 ~Yr.Size (km2 )Location 80 1,567 18-81 10~971 15 Area of 80-81:overlap a 1,532 km 2 ~ 127 ---------_.........._-------------=--------_...:...._--- ·.... 1#650 ....... Home Range IF --Yr.Size (km2 )Location ~80 37,010 21 81 39,954 15 Area of 80-81 overlap -27,704 km 2 .- 128 / .... F'" 11651 Home Ran~e II Yr.Size (kIn )Location 78 5,001 9 80 3,521 13 "'"'Area of 78-80 overlap :a 1,877 km 2 .- .... - 129 .... .... .... -.... /;652 P""Home Range I; Yr.Size (1an 2 )Location 80 13,141 20.-81 4,058 13- Area of 80-81;overla.p "'"3,633 km 2 130 ~, .... \ i, i \ \ \ .- Home Ran~e II Yr.Size (km )Location .-80 4,505 18 81 16,679 14 82 397 4 ~Area of 80-81 overlap =3,413 km 2 Area of 81-82 overlap =294 kIIl 2 ~ .... .iiijlllllIJl , 131 11654 Yr. Home Ran~e Size (km ) II Location \ \ \ 80- 132 80 81 6,067 16 9,528 14 of 80-81 overlap •-4,031 km 2 11655 Home Range II Yr.Si.ze (km2 )Location 80 4,552 17.....81 16,585 14 Area of 80-81 overlap ,.3,031 1an,2..... 133 ..... 1/662 ~Home Range II Yr.Size (kml )Location 77 1,108 9 78 1,480 6 80 2,475 12 81 3,663 13.... Area of 77-78 over"lap -68 km 2 Area of 78-80 overlap ..177 km 2 . ~Area of 80-81 overlap ..2,033 km 2 134 -j -:'4 11664 ..... Home Ran~e II .....Yr.Size (lem )Location 76 42,256 12 77 31,473 17 ~78 235,778 14 80 2,531 15 Area of 76-77 overlap •22,270 km 2 Area of 77-78 overl~p •18,81.6 km 2 ,Area of 78-80 overlap •1,309 km 2 .....(i 135 - F"' I ..... """"!i °1;679 Home Range Yr.Size (lan2 ) 80 108 81 13,204 Ii Location 4 13 Area of 80-81 overlap.102 km.2 __.1..•3£~ 136 .... 11685 '"-_..-, Home Ran~e II '-.. "Yr.Size (lan )Location.- 81 164,187 12 82 20,842 5- Area of 81-82 overlap •a km 2 \ \ 137 ._------------~-_.._--------------------------.......;.......;----- - .... ! 138 11726-Home Ran~e /; Yr.Size (Ian )Location r- '7.7 24,445 9 78 33,112 16 Area 77-78 overlap ,.11,191 Ian2 ,- 139 ~ I J J -]])I I 1 J l i J 1 Total Moose Population Estimate -90~CI -504 (452 -556) Sightability Correction Factor =1.19 ' . . Corrected Total Moose Population Estimate -600 (538 -662) 600 ±62 (10.3\) J )J 1 i j }j ]] Appendix D.Moose census data and population estimate from Moose Composition,Count Area 6,November 1983. Density Stratum High Medium Low Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Unit Moos\i!(Mi 2 )Unit Moose (Mi 2 )Unit Moose (Mi 2 ) 4 48 17.8 7 15 15.0 14 0 20.6 1 49 19.0 12 9 22.2 18 1 17.2 9 64 22.2 6 47 22.5 19 3 19.1 8 33 20.1 16 0 10.8 25 13 23.9 Totals 3 161 59.0 5 117 103.7 4 4 67.7 Total Number Samp1~ Units 7 10 9 Area of each stratum HO.5 .173.6 165.3 Moose density/ I-'stratum 2.729 1.128 .059 ~ I-'Moose Pop.Est./ stratum 356 196 10 'l'otal-Moose-popula.tlon-EStiillate-;;'-90\eI -562 H83 -640) Sightabi1ity Correction Factor =1.19 Corrected Total Moose Population Estimate -669 (575 -762) 669 ±93 (13.9\) J )J _1 J ---1 --)1 ] Appendix E.Moose census data and population estimate for Moose CQmposition Count Area 7,November 1983. Density stratum Hiqh Medium LOw Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Unit Moose (Hi 2 )Unit Moose (Mi 2 )Unit Moose (Mi 2 ) 30 67 19.6 48 43 13.9 41 25 8.1 51 55 13.2 45 24 17.7 3 9 11.3 42 80 8.7 6 27 11.2 9 4 13.5 36 32 13.5 4 2 10.0 21 3 12.3 27 41 15.9 5 37 14.9 10 2 12.9 18 42 13.1 28 35 21.5 32 10 11.2 34 29 14.7 29 18 11.6 22 12 10.9 13 32 16.3 11 12 12.5 39 76 11.6 Totals 7 346 98.7 11 318 152.1 6 53 69.3 Total Number Sample Units 8 26 20 I-' 01>-Area of N each stratum 110.1 344.1 245.9 Moose density/ stratum 3.506 2.091 .765 Moose Pop.Est./ stratum 386 719 188 Total Moose Population Estimate -90\CI -1293 (1060 -1527) Sightabi1ity Correction Factor =1.19 Corrected Total Moose Population Estimate -1539 (1261 -1817) 1539 ±278 (18.1%) ·-))j ))]J 1 L Appendix F.Hoose census data and population estimate for Hoose Composition Count Area 12,November 1983. Density Stratum LOw Medium High Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Unit Moose (Hi 2 )Unit Hoose (Hi 2 )Unit Hoose (Hi 2 ) Total SU per Stratum 28 4 3 ~17 19.3 4 12 20.4 6 8 21.2 11 0 19.5 19 4 16.6 24 9 15.2 25 7 17.6 27 8 14.8 31 0 16.3 32 '0 19.5 34 0 19.4 Sample Total 11 65 199.8 Total Area per stratum 499.4 ..... ~ w r = T = V{r)= V(T)= 0.325 162 0.0054 1350 8 10 22 23 4 24 19 26 24 93 18.7 21.2 18.5 18.6 77.0 77.0 1.208 93 0.0000o. 12 14 26 3 77 53 U 174 18.6 19.5 17.1 55.2 55.2 3.152 174 0.0000o. Count Area 12 totals 429 T 1350 V(T) 1.740 Un-I) 493 CI H366CIL14.9\ J i 1 j -J I -·1 I 1 I-' ,j::o ,j::o Appendix G.Summary of moose census data and population estimate for the Composition Count Areas 3,6,7 and 12 and the primary moose impact zone within GMU-13,November 1983. Density Stratum High --Heaium--------r;Qw Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Sample No.Area Unit Hoose (Mi 2 )Unit Hoose (Mi 2 )Unit Hoose (Mi 2 ) 30 67 19.6 48 43 --U:g-41 25 8.1 51 55 13.2 45 24 17.7 3 9 11.3 42 80 8.7 6 27 11.2 9 4 13.5 36 32 13.5 4 2 10.0 21 3 12.3 27 41 15.9 5 37 14.9 10 2 12.9 18 42 13.1 28 35 21,S 32 10 11.2 34 29 14.7 29 18 11.6 150 3 10.8 53 69 9.8 22 12 10.9 154 7 11.9 135 9 11.9 13 32 16.3 125 3 11.8 139 30 12.5 11 12 12.5 133 7 11.0 168 72 13.7 39 76 11.6 130 12 12.4 140 38 12.9 123 12 19.9 158 10 10.0 184 41 11.6 129 30 9.7 205 2 10.0 12 57 19.3 131 25 11.8 202 0 15.9 17 39 21.5 172 19 13.7 56 10 15.1 13 71 14.5 177 18 11.0 88 0 11.8 14 25 15.0 204 8 15.5 60 18 13.1 1 72 9.6 170 18 14.1 203 5 11.3 4 48 17.8 58 33 24.0 187 12 13.8 1 49 19.0 153 29 13.3 10 0 8.3 9 64 22.2 190 14 11.4 8 7 17.4 12 77 18.6 11 24 11.6 18 0 7.1 14 53 19.5 9 3 12.1 5 4 14.7 26 44 17.1 19 20 9.9 16 2 19.7 15 74 13.5 3 7 20.0 .6 55 13.7 14 0 20.6 2 6 13.9 18 1 17.2 7 15 15.0 19 3 19.1 12 9 22.2 16 0 10.8 6 47 22.5 2 17 19.3 8 33 20.1 412 20.4 25 13 23.9 6 8 21.2 8 24 18.7 11 0 19.5 10 19 21.2 19 4,16.6 22 26 18.5 24 9 15.2 23 24 18.6 .25 7 17.6 27 8 14.8 31 0 16.3 32 0 19.5 34 0 19.4 TOtals 24 1204 365.2 36 916 551.9 40 231 582.9 Total Number Sample Units 34 6.6 102 Area of each stratum 514.5 941.7 1473.5 Moose density/stratum 3.297 1.660 .396 M/?ose Pop.Est./stratum 1696 1563 ----sBl TOtal Moose Populati~fiiiate -90\~-384rl3562 -4TID Sightabi1ity Corr~ction Factor =1.19 Corrected Total Moose Population Estimate -4573 (4239 -4908) 4573 ±335 (7.3\) 1 J -]J I~~--J )I -I 1 1 1 i -I • Appendix H.Moose counts in areas surveyed at intensities of 3 versus 12 minutes/mi 3 in GMU-13, November 1983. High Stratum Totals Correction Survey Area -12-12 12-26 135 7-36 3-12 Factor 1st count 23 2 5 18 49 97 1.10 Intensive Count 24 2 13 18 50 107 .Medium Stratum Survey Area -12-10 12-8 190 12-22 12-23 172 177 7-6 153 129 3-6 1st Count 0 11 0 6 5 5 17 17 9 0 21 0 91 1.29 Intensive Count 0 11 0 7 8 5 20 28 13 0 21 4 117 Low Stratum Survey Area 202 3-5 12-11 7-9 60 12-24 1st Count 0 0 0 2 9 0 11 1.18 Intensive Count 0 0 0 2 11 0 13 Totals 1st Count 199 1.19 I-'Intensive Count 237 •J:>, U1 ]j I J 1 j 1 1 1 -J )I )1 Appendix I.Moose sex and age classification from quadrat sampling methods and routine composition counts in selected moose count areas in GMU-13, October -November 1983. Bulls Cows Unid. Type Sex of Spikes 30-40-50-Total ~!?!?Total Total Lone Total &Total Count Area Count Date &Forks ~29 39 49 59 60+rf w/O w/1 w/2 !?Adults Calves Calves Age Sample Time (hr.) Moose Impact Zone minus CA-7 census 11/4-9 22 18 34 16 13 3 106 300 62 8 370 476 0 78 0 554 21.4 CA-3 census 11/3-4 16 28 25 11 5 2 87 232 55 11 298 385 0 77 0 462 12.4 compo count 11/5-6 20 30 13 6 4 0 73 225 68 12 305 378 0 92 0 470 6.8 CA-6 census 11/4-6 20 10 6 0 1 0 37 114 60 3 177 214 1 67 1 282 10.5 compo count 10/26-27 14 19 16 8 2 0 59 195 74 7 276 335 0 S8 0 423 8.6 CA-7 census 11/4-9 25 24 20 16 4 0 89 344 128 9 481 570 1 147 0 717 19.7 compo count 11/2-10 16 26 24 16 5 1 88 354 156 7 517 605 1 171 0 776 16.1 ~CA-12 census 11/S-16 42 163 60 2 225 267 1 65 0 332 Il:>o compo count 11/S-9 17 2 5 2 0 0 26 103 22 1 126 152 0 24 0 176 12.40'1 --J I Appendix J.Moose sex and age composition from quadrat sampling and routine composition counts in selected moose count areas of GMU-13,October ~November 1983. Total Yrl.-----yr'l:-------Calves Inc1iience Males Males Males Calves/per 100 of twins/Calf Animals Type of per 100 per 100 %in 100 females 100 females %in per Total Area Survey Date females females herd cows 2 yr.w/calves herd hour Sample ---1 1 1 Moose Impact Zone excluding CA~7 census 11/4-6 20.9 10/26-27 21.4 11/4-9 18.5 11/2-1017.0 11/8~16 18.7 11/8-9 20.6 ....... .r:. ..,j CA-3 CA-6 CA-7 CA-12 census compo count census compo count census compo count census compo count 11/4-9 11/3-4 11/5-6 28.7 29.2 23.9 10.8 14.8 16.4 17.0 12.0 10.2 8.1 12.0 15.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 10.7 7.8 6.8 5.4 8.1 10.8 21.1 25.8 30.2 37.9 31.9 30.6 33.1 28.9 19.0 23.6 30.3 36.1 45.6 36.2 34.0 36.0 32.8 22.4 11.4 16.7 15.0 4.8 8.6 6.6 4.3 3.2 4.3 14.1 16.7 19.6 23.8 20.8 20.5 22.0 19.6 13.6 25.9 37.3 69.1 26.9 49.2 36.4 48.2 8.5 14.2 554 462 470 282 423 717 776 332 176