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A FORECAST OF INDUSTRIAL AND OCCUPATIONAL
EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA
PREPARED FOR
MAN IN THE ARCTIC PROGRAM
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC,AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
PREPARED BY
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON
APRIL 1974
Standard Book Number:88353-018-X
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number:74-620091DKu_
ISEGR Report S~ries Number:43
Published by
Institute of Social,Economic and Government Research
University of Alaska
Fairbanks,Alaska 99701
1974
Printed in the United States of America
PREFACE
The research in this report was carried out by Human Resources
Planning Institute (HRPI)as part of the Man in the Arctic
Program (MAP),a major research program funded by the National
Science Foundation at the Institute of Social,Economic and
Government ~esearch (ISEGR),University of Alaska.MAP is a
long-range research effort intended to develop a basic under-
standing of the forces of change in Alaska and to apply this
understanding in dealing with the critical problems of social
and economic development.The principal objectives of MAP are
to:
•Measure and anaiyze basic patterns of change in the
economy,population,and environment of Alaska.
•Identify significant interactions between outside
economic and social forces and Alaska conditions and
institutions.
•Identify specific problems associated with these
interactions and analyze policy alternatives for
dealing with them.
•Provide information and analysis to assist decision
makers in solving critical economic,social,and
environmental problems of concern to both state and
nation.
The objectives of MAP are defined on an ambitious scale,and
necessarily so,given the breadth and magnitude of th~problems
and policies with which it is concerned.
As part of MAP,ISEGR contracted with HRPI to construct a
forecast of industry and occupational employment in Alaska
through 1983.Particular attention was to be given to the
methodology by which the demands for specific occupational
categories were linked to industry employment levels.
Although intended primarily to provide information to a larger
research program,the HRPI study has produced results which
seem useful in their own right.ISEGR has,therefore,elected
to publish this work,essentially as received from HRPI,in-the belief that the information is of immediate relevance and
potential usefulness to many persons and agencies in Alaska.
The results of the HRPI have not been subjected to detailed
critical review nor have they as yet been integrated into the
larger MAP research design.The results are presented here
to contribute to informed public discussion of the matters
involved.ISEGR cannot,however,confirm or refute the validity
of the specific projections developed by the HRPI study.
David T.Kresge
Director,MAP
Victor Fischer
Director,ISEGR
June 1974
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION . .
PART I -SUMMARY OF FINDINGS.
SECTION 1 -STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION
Introduction.. . .
7
7
7
Part 1:Forecasts of Labor Force,and Population 10
Part 2:Forecasts of Employment in Alaska's Basic
Industries .
Part 3:Forecasts of Employment in Alaska's Non-
Basic Industries .
Part 4:Tables and Figures of the Statewide Fore-
casts.
·14
·30
·38
SECTION 2 -REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION
Anchorage Region.
Fairbanks Region.
Southeast Region.
Southcentral Region
Southwest Region.
Northwest Region.
Northern Region .
Tables and Figures of the Regional Forecasts.
SECTION 3 -OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT .
Professional,Technical and Kindred Workers
59
62
•64
•67
•69
.'.71
•73
•74
•76
•97
·98
i
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Managers and Administrators,Except Farm..107
Sales Workers . • • • • • • •.109
Clerical and Kindred Workers..111
Craftsmen and Kindred Workers .113
Operatives,Except Transport Workers..117
Transport Equipment Operative .119
Laborers and Farm Workers .120
Service Workers • • •.122
Tables and Figures of the Occupational Forecasts..126
APPENDIX •• • • • • • . • • • . • . • • • • . . . • • •165
PART II -THE STRUCTURE OF ALASKA'S LABOR MARKET.. • . • • • • • . •167
SECTION I -ECONOMIC BASE MODEL OF ALASKA..169
Theoretical Background.. • • • • • •.169
The Statewide Model.• •178
The Econometric Analysis 183
The Population Indicator 187
Seasonal Effects in Alaska 190
Lagged Relationships • • •192
Noncategorized Employment.192
Unemployment Equation.194
Operation of the Model 195
The Regional Allocation System 197
Regional Impact Matrices " •198
Limitations on the Allocation System 200
Calculating the Regional Allocation Matrices 205
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Sources of Data.
Other Sources of Data.
The Occupational Model
BIBLIOGRAPHY .....
208
211
212
219
iii
LIST OF FIGURES
PART I -SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
FIGURE 1 -Man in Arctic Project Study Regions By
Labor Market Statistical Area . . .
FIGURE 2 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Mining
3
43
FIGURE 3 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Manufacturing.44
FIGURE 4 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Communications,
Utilities 45
FIGURE 5 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Federal
Government.. . .. • . .46
FIGURE 6 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Total Construc-
tion 47
FIGURE 7 -Alaska Employment Forecast -State and Local
Government ....48
FIGURE 8 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Retail Trade 49
FIGURE 9 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Wholesale Trade.50
FIGURE 10-Alaska Employment Forecast -Finance,Insur-
ance,Real Estate . . . . . . . . . .51
FIGURE 11-Alaska Employment Forecast -Transportation .52
FIGURE 12-Alaska Employment Forecast -Services . . . .53
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 13 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Noncategorized."54
FIGURE 14 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Total Employment.55
FIGURE 15 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Unemployment.56
FIGURE 16 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Labor Force 57
FIGURE 17 -Alaska Employment Forecast -Total Population.58
FIGURE 18 -Regional Total Employment -Anchorage.90
FIGURE 19 -Regional Total Employment -Fairbanks.91
FIGURE 20 -Regional Total Employment -Southeast.92
FIGURE 21 -Regional Total Employment -Southcentral 93
FIGURE 22 -Regional Total Employment -Southwest.94
FIGURE 23 -Regional Total Employment -Northwest.95
FIGURE 24 -Regional Total Employment -Northern 96
FIGURE 25 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Professional,
Technical and Kindred.127
FIGURE 26 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Managers
and Administrators,Exc.Farm.
FIGURE 27 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Sales
Workers .
128
129
v
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 28 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Clerical
and Kindred Workers..130
FIGURE 29 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Craftsman
and Kindred Workers..131
FIGURE 30 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Operatives,
Exc.Transport .132
FIGURE 31 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Transport
Equipment Operatives .133
FIGURE 32 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Laborers,
Exc.Farm..134
FIGURE 33 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Farm Owners
Mgrs.and Workers..135
FIGURE 34 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Service
Workers,Exc.Prvt.Household..136
FIGURE 35 -Alaska Occupational Employment -Private
Household Workers .
PART II -THE STRUCTURE OF ALASKA'S LABOR MARKET
FIGURE 1 -Man in Arctic Project Study Regions by
Labor Market Statistical Area.. .
FIGURE 2 -Alaska Statewide Employment Model.
FIGURE 3 -Sample Regional Impact Matrix.. .
..137
3
.196
.199
LIST OF TABLES
PART I -SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
TABLE 1 -Basic and Non-Basic Industries ..9
TABLE 2 -Employment Estimates for Pipeline
Construction.
TABLE 3 -Employment by Industry for the Historical
Period (1966-72).
TABLE 3a -Employment by Industry for the Forecast
Period (1973-83)..
TABLE 4 -Total Employment by Region.
TABLE 5 -Alaska Employment by Industry and Regional
Shares,1972 ...
· .39
· .40
41
76
78
TABLE 6 -Alaska Employment Forecast -.1973 79
TABLE 7 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1974 ·80
TABLE 8 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1975 ·81.
TABLE 9 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1976 ·82
TABLE 10 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1977 ·83
TABLE 11 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1978
TABLE 12 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1979
TABLE 13 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1980 . . .
·84
·85
· .86
vii
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 14 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1981.
TABLE 15 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1982.
87
88
TABLE 16 -Alaska Employment Forecast -1983.. ...89
TABLE 17 -Al~ska Oc~upational Employment by Category 126
TABLE 18 -Forecast of Occupational Employment in
Alaska for 1983 ....138
PART II -THE STRUCTURE OF ALASKA'S LABOR MARKET
TABLE 1 -Basic and Nonbasic Industries 182
TABLE 2 -Seasonal Binary Variables.184
TABLE 3 -Nonbasic Industry Equations from STEP-WISE
Regression Program 185
TABLE 4 -Historical Data Comparison Report 203
TABLE 5 -Historical Data Comparison Report 204
TABLE 6 -Matrix of Transfers and Transfer-
Coefficients for 1972 ..207
TABLE 7 -Matrix Segment -Industry Correspondence 214
TABLE 8 -Correspondence Between Major and Minor
Occupational Categories.216
viii
A FORECAST OF INDUSTRIAL AND OCCUPATIONAL
EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA
PART I
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .
1
INTRODUCTION
As part of a multi-year,National Science Foundation supported
research program,the Institute of Social,Economic and Govern-
ment Research,University of Alaska,contracted with Human
Resources Planning Institute (HRPI)to conduct a forecast of
industry and occupational employment in the state of Alaska
through the year 1983.
Under its contract,Human Resources Planning Institute staff
of Theodore Lane,Eric Swanson,and Marc Reeder developed a
disaggregated economic base model l for the state of Alaska.
Next,HRPI obtained the occupational employment statistics
(OES)tape for the state of Alaska from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics,U.S.Department of Labor.The OES tape was
developed from the 1970 Census and presents a matrix giving
the number of persons employed in each of the 227 industries
for 440 occupations.HRPI developed the necessary programs
to convert the OES matrix into a matrix of occupations and
industries for which employment forecasts could be generated.
Finally,the HRPI models were modified to gener~te both a
"most probable"forecast and an uncertainty envelope (95%
confidence)around that forecast.
IThe disaggregated base model is a refined and updated ver-
sion of the model developed by Human Resources Planning
Institute as a subcontractor to Mathematical Sciences North-
west in studying the impact of the Alyeska Pipeline under a
master contract let by the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company .•
The study effort is presented in two parts _
Part I:Summary of Findings,
Part II:The Structure o£Alaska's Labor Market.
The first report is a summary discussion of the results of
the study.Statewide forecasts are presented for 12 indus-
try categories as well as for total employment,civilian
labor force,and total population.Historical data are pre-
sented for the period 1966-1972 and forecast data are pre-
sented for the period 1973-1983.Regional forecasts of
employment are also discussed for the seven Man in the Arctic
study regions shown in Figure 1:
0 Anchorage;
0 Fairbanks;
0 Southeast;
0 Southcentral;
0 Southwest;
0 Northwest;and
0 Northern.
The first report concludes with a presentation of expected
occupational employment in 440 categories for the year 1983
and a discussion of the trends in occupational employment
during the decade,1973-1983.
2
FIGURE 1
MAN IN ARCTIC PROJECT STUDY REGIONS
BY LABOR MARKET STATISTICAL AREA
l.Anchora~e 4.Southcentra 1 5.Southwest
Cordova Bethel
2.Fairbanks Valdez Kuskokwim
Palmer Wade-Hampton
3.Southeast Seward
Prince'of Wales Kenai 6.Northwest
Ketchikan Kodiak Barrow
Wrangell Aleutians Kobuk
Sitka Bri stol Bay Nome
Juneau
Lynn Canal 7.Northern
Yukon-Koyukuk
Upper Yukon
for c1.:lss1fication of data
b}'laborr::.arket statistiC':ll 3reas
'Within election district:
3
.I
4
Part II is a technical discussion of the methodology used
to generate the results presented in Part I.There is a
section on the economic base model used to make the state-
wide and regional forecasts of industry employment.The
forecast equations derived through linear regression analysis
are presented,and the approach used to make occupational
employment forecasts is discussed.There is a mathematical
~presentation of the sensitivity analysis used to derive the
uncertainty (errors)envelopes accompanying the statewide
forecasts of industry and occupational employment.
The second report concludes with an outline of the system
of computer programs developed by HRPI for the Man in the
Arctic Program.The interaction of programs within the system,
the input data each program requires and the results pre-
sented on the various output tables are discussed in this
section.
Throughout the course of this study,the entire Man in the
Arctic Program (MAP)staff at the Institute of Social,Economic
and Government Research at the University of Alaska offered
continuing advice,comment,and suggestion.In particular,
we would like to extend our thanks to Mr.Dave Kresge and
Mr.Neville Beharie of ISEGR.Bob Richards and Vince Wright
of the National Bank of Alaska provided us with many helpful
comments.In addition,they were of great assistance to us
in making contact with many business and industry leaders
for discussions of their particular industry trends.Paul
Engleman of the Alaska State Department of Economic Develop-
ment gave us substantial assistance,as did Larry Heppenbach
of the Alaska State Department of Revenue.We would also
like to thank Naomi Smith of the Research Division of the
Alaska Department of Labor for providing special data which
otherwise would not have been available.
.
5
SECTION 1
STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION
Introduction
This section of the report will discuss forecasts of Alaskan
employment for the decade running through 1983.These fore-
casts were generated by an economic base model,the struc-
ture and operation of which will be covered in a Volume II
of the report.The following topics will qe covered in
this section:
l.Forecast of labor force,and population;
2.Forecast of employment in Alaska's basic industries;
3.Forecast of employment in Alaska's non-basic indus-
tries;and
4.Tables and graphs of the statewide forecasts.
At the close of this section,tables and graphs supporting
the discussion are presented.The forecasts of statewide..
industries include an uncertainty envelope surrounding the
path of the "most probable"employment.This envelope
represents the region containing 95%of the errors accumu-
lated by the economic base model.These errors came about
because of uncertainty assigned by the economist to each
basic industry forecast.Additional uncertainty arisep
due to the fact that equations used to make the non-basic
forecasts were generated by linear regression analysis and
thus were "best estimates"of the future,base on the trends
7
8
of the past.The details of how the uncertainty envelopes
were determined are discussed in a section called Sensi-
tivity Analysis of Forecast Results in Volume II.The main
thing to keep in mind here is that these errors represent
the range of forecasts possible given the basic assumptions
nf the economic base model and should not be interpreted
as a measure of the integrity of the basic assumptions
themselves.
The graphs included at the end of this section show trends
in annual employment averaged from the quarterly forecasts
of the base model.The quarterly equations used in the base
model are presented in Table 4 of Volume II.Annual ver-
sions of these equations are presented with their respec-
tive graph.Variable abbreviations are explained in the
Time Series Variable List given in the Appendix to this
volume.Input data for the annual equations should be the
average of the four quarterly values for each independent
variable.The operation of the quarterly equations as a
system is discussed in Section I of Volume II.
Table I presents the basic and non-basic industries to be
discussed in this section.
9
TABLE 1
BASIC AND NON-BASIC INDUSTRIES
Basic Industries
Mining
Petroleum mInIng
Other mining
Construction (pipeline)*
Manufacturing
Food Products
Forest Products
Other Manufacturing
Communications and Utilities
(including public utilities)
Federal Government
Non-Basic Industries
Construction (Total)*
Transportation services
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance,Insurance,and Real Estate
Services
State and Local Government
Non-categorized,including agriculture
SIC Code
10 -14
13
la,12,14
15 -17
19 -39
20
24 -26
48,49
91
15 -17
40 -47
50
52 -!)9
6-0 -69
70 -89
92 -93
01 -09,and other
*Construction has both a basic and a non-basic component.
Pipeline construction is basic and determined exogenously.
All other construction is non-basic and,determined within
the model.Total construction is the sum of both co~ponents.
10
Part 1:Forecasts of Labor Force,and Population
Total Civilian Employment (Figure 14)
Forecasts of total civilian employment is derived from a
simple summation of employment in the basic and non-basic
industries.The industry employment will be discussed in
Parts 2 and 3 of this section.
Total employment in the state of Alaska is expected to
increase over the period 1973 to 1983,inclusive,from
approximately 113,000 workers to approximately 217.5 thousand
workers -an increase of 104.5 thousand workers or 92%.
Approximately two-thirds of this increase will occur between
the years 1973 and 1976,inclusive,when the major impact of
the construction of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline will be felt.
The growth rate is expected to slow down somewhat between the
period 1976 and 1980 and rise more sharply during the period
1982 to 1983.
This forecast of total employment includes the assumption
that the Trans-Alaskan pipeline will begin construction during
the second quarter of 1974 and that a gas pipeline will be
constructed immediately following completion of the oil
pipeline.It does not,however,include any estimated impacts
that might result from the construction of either a second
oil pipeline or a second gas pipeline.
11
,.-
;
Unemployment (Figure 15)
The rate of unemployment was estimated at 10%of the labor
force in 1972 and is expected to decline to approximately
9.5%by 1975.Within the range of uncertainty the unemploy-
ment rate in 1975 could fall anywhere from a low of 8%to
a high of 11%.After completion of the Trans-Alaska pipe-
line unemployment is expected to rise somewhat reaching a
high of approximately 11.5%in 1980 and declining slightly
to approximately 11.3%oy 1983.
Despite the fact that the rate of employment is expected
to decline during the pipeline construction and increase
thereafter,the total number persons who will be unemployed
is expected to increase steadily throughout the period.
In 1972,an estimated 13,300 workers were unemployed.This
number is expected to increase to 17,300 workers in 1975
and 27,700 in 1983.Despite the fact that the number ~f
persons who are expected to be unemployed will more than
double over the 11 year forecast period,the labor force
will also be rising sharply.Consequently,ch~nges in
the rate of unemployment will be moderate.
The concept of unemployment which is being measured i~
these forecasts conforms to that used by the Federal and
state departments of labor.This means that to be unemployed,
a person must be out of work,able to work,and actively
12
seeking legitimate employment.It a person is either
incapacitated or has stopped actively seeking work,that
person is no longer considered part of the labor force
and,therefore,is not considered unemployed.
Civilian Labor Force (Figure 16)
The labor force is the summation of the-total number of
civilian workers and the total number of unemployed per-
sons in the labor market.Consequently,with both the
number of persons employed and the number unemployed rising,
the labor force also rises very significantly between the
years 1973 and 1983,inclusive.In 1972,the civilian
labor force was estimated at 126,000 persons.By 1976,
it increases to 203,000 workers,an increase of 77,000
persons or 64%.
Military Population
Estimates of future military activity in Alaska are diffi-
cult to make.During the historical period military employ-
ment (active duty personnel)declined steadily from 33,200
in 1966 to 26,500 in 1972.In addition,there were 29,600
military dependents in Alaska in 1972.Without a valid
means to second-guess the Department of Defense,the 1972
military population of 56,100 was applied to forecasts of
total population throughout the 1973-1983 forecast period.
13
Total Population (Figure 17)
Total population is the summation of civilian labor force,
civilian dependents,active duty military personnel,and
military dependents.Alaska's population was an estimated
313,600 persons in 1972.By 1983,the population is expected
to increase to a level of 546,300 persons.This figure
includes a civilian labor force of 245,200,245,000 civilian
dependents,26,500 active duty military personnel and 29,600
military dependents.This represents an increase of 232,700
persons or almost 75%.Uncertainty in the population esti-
mate,could allow population to rise as high as 575,000 by
1983.
Underlying the population forecast is an assumption that
the civilian dependency ratio (total population over civilian
labor force)will decline from 2.04 to 1.99 during the fore-
cast period as dependents become workers.This represents
a slight increase (about 2%)in the proportion of all •
civilian persons in the population who are actively partici-
pating in the state civilian labor market.The major
factor underlying this assumption of ~declining civilian
dependency ratio is the increasing number of women who are
expected to participate in the labor force.An additional
4
assumption,mentioned above,is that military population
will remain at the 1972 level through 1983.
14
Part 2:Forecasts of Employment in Alaska's Basic Industries
Construction (Pipeline)*
During the 1970's construction employment is expected to
show some dramatic changes.The greatest of these changes
will occur as a result of construction of the Trans-Alaska
pipeline.Assuming that pipeline construction begins by
the end of the 2nd quarter of 1974 and requires three years
of continuous effort,pipeline construction employment is
expected to rise to approximately 4,200 average annual workers
in 1974 and a second quarter peak of 11,000 workers in 1975.
There will be a decline of approximately 1,600 workers in
the construction industry between 1975 and 1976,and by
1977 pipeline construction employment will have dropped to
a forecasted level of 800 average annual workers.
This forecast of construction activity on the Trans-Alaska
pipeline is based upon the latest "Manning schedule"available
from the Alyeska Pipeline Company.It is significantly higher
than the original Manning schedule contained in the impact
study published by Mathematical Sciences Northwest.At the
time of the original analysis,the Alyeska plans contained a
three-phase work plan.The first phase had oil flowing at
approximately 0.6 million barrels per day;the second phase,
*Pipeline construction is the exogenous component of total
construction which is discussed with the non-basic indus-
tries in Part 3 of this section.
15
oil throughput was increased to approximately 1.2 million barrels
per day;while the third phase would increase the throughput
to approximately 2 million barrels per day.The new work
schedule apparently calls for a two phase work plan.Phase
one will have the oil flowing at approximately 0.6 million
barrels per day for a 30-90 day period which will act as the
"shakedown period"for the pipeline.Immediately following
the shakedown period the throughput will be increased to 1.2
million barrels per day.As a result of this collapsing of
the work schedule,the storage capacity and terminal facilities
at Valdez will have to be brought up to the original phase
two level during the initial three year construction period.
Alyeska also anticipates construction of an additional three
to four pumping stations along the pipeline route.As a
result,the number of workers employed by Alyeska during the
three year construction phase has been increased substantially
from a quarterly peak of approximately 8,000 workers to a new
forecasted peak of approximately 11,000 workers~..
We are forecasting that a natural gas pipeline will be con-
structed with completion scheduled for 1979.wi are fore-
casting that the first natural gas pipeline to be constructed
will be the McKenzie Valley pipeline route currently being
.if
proposed by the Alaska Arctic (Canada Arctic)Pipeline Con-
sortium.This pipeline will run from the north slope of Alaska
*Recent press releases from Alyeska forecast peak employ-
ment as high as 12.500.
16
through the McKenzie Valley and across Canada into the gen-
eral area of Chicago.It will probably be a 48"diameter
pipe with a carrying capacity of approximately 3-3.5 billion
cubic feet of natural gas per day.An estimated 275 miles
of the gas pipeline construction will occur within the
state of Alaska and this will give rise to an estimated
average annual employment in the range of 2,000 to 3,000
workers (with a peak quarterly employment during the third
quarter of 1978 of about 6,300 workers).It is our feeling
that the proposed El Paso pipeline (which would parallel
the TAPS route)is of doubtful economic feasibility at the
present time.This is particularly true because it would
require the construction of a liquified natural gas (LNG)
terminal (including a plant and storage area)requiring a
minimum of 640 acres for its construction.A LGN plant of
sufficient capability to accommodate the capacity of the
proposed El Paso pipeline would cost an estimated half a
billion dollars a year to operate (in addition to requiring
an estimated one million horsepower compressor capacity).
Also the building of one or two LGN tankers would add
significantly to the costs of the projects.
The forecasts of employment in pipeline construction dis-
cussed above are summarized in Table 2 at the end of this
section.
17
Total Mining (Figure 2)
Total mining is the sum of oil and gas mining and other
mining.A discussion of these components follow.
Oil and Gas Mining
Upon the initiation of construction activity for the Trans-
Alaska pipeline system,a resurgence 'of oil and gas explora-
tion activity is expected to begin.During the 1974-1975
winter seasons it is expected that at least 19 exploration
rigs will be active in the North Slope area.Of this num-
ber,16 will probably be wildcat rigs employing between 60
and 80 workers per rig while three will be development rigs
employing approximately 40 workers per rig.The explora-
tion will probably occur to the east and west of the exist-
ing field and there will be,in addition,some off-shore
activity.Over the next few years,several oil companies
currently which have Federal leases on fields which lie
to the south of the Prudue Bay area must complete..their
exploratory activities on these properties because their
leases will be running out.Consequently,exploration
activity is expected to rise to a hig4 of approximately
2,500 workers by 1975 and remain at that level through
1977.Thereafter the time pressure for exploration ac}ivi-
ties will be reduced somewhat causing a slight initial
decline and a stable longer term level of employment at
2,400 workers.Many of the workers employed after 1978
18
will be in the lower Cook Inlet,North Slope,and Gulf
of Alaska exploration areas.
Other Mining
Other mining activity in the State of Alaska has been declin-
ing steadily since 1963 employing an estimated 300 workers
in 1972.These workers are all employed by small firms;
at the present time there is no mine operating in the state
of Alaska which employs over ten workers.Most of the
employment in this sector is by small mines operating with
a work force of two to five men,or else is produced by the
employment of geologists and other exploration crews who are
seeking to determine the existence of mineral resources
within the state.
While the development of Alaska's mineral resources (parti-
cularly copper resources in the Kennicott region of the
Wrangell Mountains)may have strong potential in the long
run,it is doubtful that activity in this sector will in-
crease significantly over the forecast period.By 1983,
it is expected that total employment in the other mining
sector will be equal to 500 workers.
19
Total Manufacturing (Figure 3)
Total manufacturing is the sum of logging,lumber and pulp;
food processing;and other manufacturing.These components
are discussed below.
Logging,Lumber,and Pulp
The forest products industry has two major components.the
production of pulp and the production of lumber.These
two components of the industry,however,are quite closely
related in their production pattern.~Both the production
of pulp and the production of lumber are centered in south-
east Alaska where there are currently four timber "working
circles".One of these working circles is centered around
Ketchikan,another around Sitka,another around Juneau,
and a fourth around Wrangell.As a result of a suit brought
by the Sierra Club,the creation of a fifth working circle
(and the entry of Champion U.S.Plywood Pulp Mill)in south-.
east Alaska has been stopped;and,for purposes of the
forecast,it is assumed that no further working circles will
be developed.
The vast majority of both the pulp and lumber output of
Alaska is sold to Japan.A significant segment of the~pulp
output,however,is marketed primarily in the eastern half
of the United States.These marketing patterns are expected
to continue throughout the forecast period.
20
Representatives of the lumber and wood products industry
see a growing shortage of timber as a result of the issues
raised by (a)the filing of environmental impact statements
and (b)the requirement for sustained yield harvesting.
Consequently,they see limited U.S.Forest Service timber
sales in the future.While the demand (primarily foreign
demand)for Alaska forest products has been high,particu-
larly during the last year,this is not expected to produce
any new boom period for the long term growth of the industry.
Japan buys forest products from Canada,Russia,Asia,and
the western part of the lower United States -as well as
from Alaska.There is some evidence that the Japanese demand
is price sensitive and,consequently,the recent devaluation
of the U.S.dollar should help the competitive position
of the Alaska forest products industry.However,two factors
act to mitigate this trend.First,Japan is sufficiently
scarce of.resources that in the past it was willing to
purchase all forest products that were available to them.
Thus the relative price advantage of U.S.forest products
will not produce any sharp increase in the demand for the
Alaska forest products in international markets.Second,
over the next several years Japan is expected to feel the
adverse effects of the international energy crisis.If
this results in a slowing down of the rate of growth of
the Japanese economy (as is probable)this will result in
a lessening of the Japanese demand for Alaska forest
products.
For forecasting purposes,the long term trend evidenced
by the Alaska forest prcraucts industry over the decade of
the 1960's is expected to continue throughout the forecast
(through 1983).
The continuance of the ten year trend of the Alaska forest
products industry results from the net effects of several
trends.First,both the state of Alaska and the U.S.
Forest Service require that the harvesting of timber from
Alaska forests "working circles"be limited to that which
can be maintained on a sustained yield basis.As a result,
the ability of the pulp and lumber mills to obtain increas-
ing amounts of standing timber is limited.Counter~
balancing this tren~howeve~is the development of better
logging techniques which will increase the sustained yield
limit capable of being harvested from the existing working
clrcles.This is mainly the result of improved techniques
for moving the cut timber from otherwise inaccessible sites
to the mills -thereby opening up stands of timber which
were not available for harvesting until very recently.At
.JJ
this time,existing plants are consistently instituting
21
22
small technological changes which have the affect of increas-
ing plant capacity with existing plant size.Additionally,
the development of improved mill techniques is leading to
better utilization of logs an~the production of products
from what had been considered waste materials of the milling
process.
These increases in plant capacity,and the better utilization
of logs at the mills,have the overall effect of reducing
the capital labor ratio in both the pulp and lumber mills
and thereby producing slightly increased employment and
output within the industry.
It is expected that employment in the logging,lumber,and
pulp industry will decline slightly from its forecasted
1973 annual average of 3,300 workers to approximately 3,100
workers by 1974.The '74 employment level is expected to
be constant through 1975 and to increase by approximately
150 workers by 1976.Thereafter,the industry is expected
to show a steady long term pattern of growth (an estimated
100 workers per year)reaching a high of 4,000 workers by
1983.
Food Processing
Food processing in Alaska is mainly involved with the
23
~-,
processing of seafood.During the 1960's,the food pro-
cessing industry showed a general upward trend.However,
employment tended to fluctuate quite significantly around
that trend.Though a sharp rise in employment occurred be-
tween 1969 and 1970 and was sustained during the period
1970 and 1971;employment within the industry declined by
approximately 300 workers between 1971 and 1972 and is
expected to show an only slight increase of approximately
150 workers between 1972 and 1973.Between 1973 and 1975,
employment in the industry is expected to be very stable.
This will result from several factors.
A number of the food processing plants and their related
fishing fleets,as weJl as independent fishermen,are
expected to develop larger vessels capable of harvesting
seafood from areas as far away as the Bering Sea.The
shellfish industry (shrimp and crab)is expected to be .
strong and steady throughout the period.However~the
harvesting of red salmon in the Bristol Bay area is
expected to remain depressed.This will act as a downward,
pressure on employment in the food processing industry.The
situation in Bristol Bay is expected to continue £or the
next four to five years before improved harvests are 4
eVident.The situation in Prince William Sound is highly
unstable.The impact of large oil tankers moving in and
out of the Sound,in order to ship oil from the southern
24
terminus of TAPS at Valdez,is not known at this time.
The strong demand for fisheries production generated by
foreign (particularly Japanese)markets appears to be
causing a shift in the composition of the industry's out-
put.Preliminary reports of 1973 .production indicate the
total pack of canned salmon will be the lowest since the
turn of the century.However,the 1973 record export of
fresh and frozen salmon to Japan from the U.S.was a
major factor in 1973's record breaking production of frozen
and cured salmon in Alaska (the old record -set in 1970 -
was exceeded by almost 50%).
Finally,the recent devaluation of the U.S.dollar should
increase the demand for food products of all sorts produced
in the state of Alaska.At the current time,the United
States imports approximately two-thirds of its fish products
from other countries.As a result of devaluation,the
price of fish products inported into the United States
will rise.This should lead to some redirection of
U.S.demand away from imported fish products and to
domestically produced ones.Part of this redirection is
expected to benefit Alaska's food processing industry.
Beginning in 1977,it is expected that the food pro-
cessing industry will show a long term pattern of slight
25
employment increases (averaging 100 workers per year)
reaching a high of 4,500 workers in 1983.
Other Manufacturing
Other manufacturing is a catch-all category into which
are lumped all of the manufacturing firms in Alaska which
are too small to be separately classified under their own
individual industry codes.An SIC definition of the workers
involved in the transmission of oil and natural gas would
place them under the category "transportation services"
not in the "other manufacturing"category.However,in
our model the transportation services category is treated
as an induced (or non-basic)industry.The impact of the
workers related to the production and transmission of oil
and natural gas clearly represent an autonomous (or basic)
increase in emplo)~ent and should be treated as part of
the basic employment sector.Consequently,we have chosen
to include the oil pipeline and gas pipeline workers,once
production begins,in the "other manufacturing category"
recognizing that this constitutes a violation of the SIC
coding system.
It is expected that by 1976 oil production will begin and
.iI
that by 1977 the "other manufacturing"category will have
increased by approximately 400 workers -all of whom will
be related to production and transmission of oil,including
26
the maintenance and operation of the terminal at Valdez.
The production and transmission of natural gas is expected
sometime during 1979,thus the other manufacturing categpry
will increase by another 100 workers who are related to
the maintenance of the gas fields and the operation of the
pumping stations for the natural gas pipeline.
Excluding the major jumps in other manufacturing related
to oil production between 1976 and 1977 and gas production
between 1979 and 1980,the other manufacturing category
is expected to increase by a long term trend of approximately
100 workers per year reaching a forecasted high of 3,150
workers by 1983.
Communications and Utilities (Figure 4)
The communications and utilities industry was exceedingly
stable throughout the 1960's fluctuating at or around 2,500
workers throughout the period.Between 1970 and 1971,how-
ever,there was a massive increase in industry employment
jumping from 2,600 workers to 3,700 workers.This shift
occurred on January 10,1971 as a result of the
transfer of workers from Federal payrolls to RCA payrolls
when RCA took over the Alaska Communications System from
the military.The institution of certain operating economies
subsequently led to a slight reduction of 100 workers between
1971 and 1972.The 1972 level is expected to be constant
through 1973.
27
.~
;
After 1973,several divergent trends are expected in the
industry.First,the RCA company,the largest single
company in this industry,is expected to show a stable or
slightly declining employment.This will result from the
institution of direct dialing systems throughout all of
Alaska which will reduce the demand for operators.The
subsequent development of automatic number identification
(ANI)equipment in local areas which will further reduce
the demand for operators.For example,Anchorage now has an
estimated 35-40%of its telephones with ANI equipment and
within two years will have gone to 100%.ANI equipment.
is expected to be instituted in Juneau within the next
three to five years and in the rest of Alaska within the
next ten years.Secondly,RCA plans to shift from its
current micro-wave systems to satellite communication
systems within the next ten years.This will act to re-
duce the number of engineering staff required,and will.
further provide some downward pressure on emplo~ent
patterns within the industry.Other parts of the
communications segment of this industry,particularly
the radio and television segments,are expected'to grow
as a result of increasing population growth throughout
Alaska.In addition,employment in private utilities 4
throughout the state is expected to show some slight
increase.This increase might be significantly affected
28
if there is developed a private transit system within
Alaska.At the present time,however,it is expected
that any transit systems which are developed will be
municipally or state-owned and operated and consequently
would not be part of this industry.
Gvera11,employment in the industry is expected to grow
by approximately 40-50 workers per year over the forecast
period beginning in 1974 and reaching a forecasted high
~f 4,000 workers by 1983.
Federal Government (Figure 5)
Throughout the 1960's,Federal government employment (ex-
cluding military employment)was highly stable -fluctuating
in the range of 16,500 workers to 17,500 workers.During
the last four years (1970 through 1973 inclusive)employ-
ment fluctuated within the range of 17,000 to 17,300 workers.
In the future,Federal government employment is expected to
grow very slowly to a level of 17,800 in 1983.
The stability in Federal government employment will result
from several counterbalancing patterns expected in Federal
activity.First,the amount of civilian,military related
employment is expected to diminish somewhat throughout
Alaska during the forecast period.In addition,the civilian
29
employment by the Federal government in such ar~as as the
Public Health Service and the Natives Health Service are
expected to diminish during the forecast period as a result
of more aggressive action taken by state and local govern-
ments (including the Native Corporations)in the area of
delivering social and health services to the Alaska popula-
tion.At the same time,administrative employment in Alaska
is expected to increase upon completion of the Federal admin-
istrative buildings and courthouse complex in Anchorage.
Bureau of Land Management personnel will probably be either
constant or increasing slightly during the period as a result
of continued action in the withdrawal and settlement of lands
between the Federal government and state of Alaska,and between
the Federal government and the native corporations.Finally,
some Federal employment is expected to increase as a result
of inspection and related activities generated by the con-
struction and operation of the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline
and the subsequent natural gas pipeline across the northern
part of Alaska.
30
Part 3:Forecasts of Employment in Alaska's Non-Basic Industries
Total Construction (Figure 6)
Total construction in Alaska was estimated to employ 7,500
persons in 1972.During the peak of pipeline construction,
1974, 1975,contract construction employment is expected
to increase to a high of approximately 18,300 workers.
Immediately following the comp~etion of the Trans-Alaska
pipeline,construction will decline significantly to a low
of 14,000 workers and will bounce upward again to just under
17,000 workers in 1978 as a result of construction of a gas
pipeline.Upon completion of the gas pipeline,and under
the assumption that no other pipelines are built,construction
employment will decline to approximat~ly 14,400 workers in
1980 and then after rise to a 1983 high of an estimated
15,700 workers.
The growth of construction employment is,·of course,heavily
influenced by construction of the oil and gas pipelines (pipe-
line construction employment is discussed separately under the Basic
Industry Section).However,another major determinant of
construction employment is the growth of popuiation in the
state.The building of an increasing number of residences
required to house the state's growing population,coupled
with the construction demands that will be exerted as a result
of increasing population densitities*will act to keep non-pipeline
*For example,the construction of water systems,sewage systems,
schools,paved streets and roads,etc.
31
,.
r
construction strong throughout the forecast period.Additionally,
should the state of Alaska elect to use a significant portion
of its oil revenues in an aggressive program of capital improve-
ments throughout the state,the construction employment fore-
cast could move closer to the top of the uncertainty envelope
(see Figure 6)than to the "most probable"forecast.
State and Local Government (Figure 7)
State and local government in Alaska employed 22,400 persons
in 1972.By 1980,state and local government employment is
expected to rise to approximately 50,200 workers and is
expected to increase by another 6.4 thousand workers between
1980 and 1983,inclusive.This represents a total growth
of just over 150%in state and local government employment
between 1973 and 1983,inclusive.
The increase in state and local government employment is
expected to occur primarily as a result of the in~reasing
demands for service generated by Alaska's growing population
and the expected increase in state tax revenues.Several
Alaskan economists have expressed doubt that state and
local government employment will rise as rapidly as our
forecast during the period 1974 through 1976,inclusiv~.
They feel that the limitations on state revenues and the
unwillingness of the state to go into debt during the period
of pipeline construction will combine to reduce the rate of
growth which we are forecasting.Should this occur,however,
32
we would expect that the backlog in the demand for state
and local government services created during the period
of pipeline construction will be made up for during the
period immediately following construction thus when oil
revenues begin corning to the state,state and local gover~
ment should grow rapidly,matching HRPI forecast by 1980.
Additionally,several Federal agencies,such as the Department
of Labor and the Department of Health,Education and Welfare
have scheduled significant increases in Federal expenditure
going into the state of Alaska to help alleviate problems
caused by the pipeline construction period.Such Federal
participation in Alaska will most probably be made through
the granting of funds for special pipeline impact programs
in the state.Consequently,the increased Federal activity
in Alaska during the period of pipeline construction will
act to support increases in the employment of persons by
state and local governments.
Retail Trade (Figure 8)
Reflecting the increase in the state's basic employment and
its increase in population,retail trade is expected to grow
rapidly with employment rising from 12,900 persons in 1972
to a level of 23,000 persons in 1976 -an increase of slightly
33
,-;
over 78%in four years.After the oil pipeline peak in
1976 retail trade is expected to remain fairly strong and
then show another period of growth during the gas pipeline
construction.Thereafter it is expected to grow at a
steady rate somewhat approximating the growth pattern which
was evidenced during the period 1966 through 1972,inclus-
ive.
During the last several years,the growth of retail trade
activity has reflected the growth of tourism as an import-
ant industry in Alaska.This factor is implicitly incor-
porated into the regression analysis which went into the
forecast.Consequently,significant changes in the pattern
of tourist growth as a result of the energy crisis are
not incorporated into this analysis.Because of the rela-
tively large number of factors that affect the growth of
retail trade,the uncertainty interval around the "most
probable"forecast is quite large and,by 1983,t~~interval
encompasses as much as plus or minus 5,000 workers.
Wholesale Trade (Figure 9)
Paralleling the growth of retail trade,wholesale trade is
expected to increase rapidly over the forecast period.~The
industry's employment is expected to increase from a 1972
level of 3,200 to a 1976 level of 5,900.After 1976 its
growth rate is fairly steady reaching a high of 7.3 thousand
workers in 1983.
34
The growth of wholesale trade in Alaska is primarily deter-
mined by the growth of retail trade.However,a significant
relationship also exists between wholesale trade employment
and employment in the mining (including petroleum mining)
industry.As a result of this interaction,wholesale trade
is expected to increase more rapidly than retail trade during
the period between 1974 and 1976,as the oil pipeline is
completed.
The uncertainty interval around the "most probable"forecast
is quite large for wholesale trade.It represents a range
of about one-fourth of the "most probable"forecast.
Finance,Insurance and Real Estate (Figure 10)
Finance,insurance and real estate which grew from less
than 2,500 workers in 1966 to a level of 3,500 workers in
1972 is expected to grow to a high of 6,100 workers by the
year 1976.Significant increases are expected to occur in
the real estate component of this industry although both
financial,and insurance institutions are expected to show
strong growth also.
After 1976,the growth in this industry is expected to be
moderate rising by 1,000 workers to a level of 7,100 in 1980,
and reaching an employment of 7,800 workers in 1983.While
the growth of several basic industries was important for the
growth of the finance,insurance and real estate industry,
35
the most important relationship existed between this indus-
try and the growth of Alaska's population.Consequently,
industry growth strongly approximates the pattern of popula-
tion growth.
Transportation (Figure 11)
The transportation industry was found to have a significant
relationship with employment levels in the construction,
m.ining (including petroleum mining),manufacturing and
with state and local government.Because all of these in-
dustries are exhibiting growth throughout the forecast
period,the transportation industry also exhibits a period
of steady growth.Particularly influenced by the growth
of construction activity and the predicted increase in state
and local government employment,the rate of growth for
this industry is greatest between 1973 and 1976,inclusive.
The industry employed approximately 6,400 workers in 19'2.
It is expected to double by 1976 and reach a level of 12,800
workers.The uncertainty interval however is quite large
and it is possible that the transportation industry could
employ as many as 15,300 workers during the period of peak
pipeline construction.
After pipeline construction is completed,the industry will
decline slightly and begin increasing again so that by 1980
,.
r
36
the level of employment will be the same as it was.in 1976.
The "most probable"1980 forecast is 12,800.Between 1980
and 1983,inclusive,employment is expected to grow again
reaching a 1983 high of 13,800 workers.
Services (Figure 13)
Service employment is expected to more than double between
1973 and 1976,inclusive,going from 13,000 to 27,100
workers.Thereafter,the growth in service employment is
expected to be much more moderate,increasing to a level
of 31,100 workers in 1980,and reaching a high of 34,700
workers in 1983.After 1976,however,the uncertainty in-
terval becomes significantly larger for the service employ-
ment forecast.Business services of all sorts are expected
to remain strong throughout the forecast period.Personal
services will show a very strong growth during the period
1973 to 1976,inclusive,and growing somewhat more slowly
thereafter.
Non-Categorized (Figure 13)
Non-categorized employment consists of workers who are not
classified in the other industry categories.The category
includes workers who are employed,domestic workers,unpaid
family workers,and workers in the agriculture,forestry
and fishing industries.Data on this group of workers is
difficult to interpret and,in effect,our forecast represents
a continuation of past time trends.Consequently,any
possible expansion in the number of non-classified workers
as a result of the pipeline is not incorporated in the
forecast.
37
.~
;
38
Part 4:Tables and Figures of the Statewide Forecasts
List of Tables and Figures Included
A.Employment estimates for pipeline construction,Table 2.
B.Employment by industry for the historical period
(1966-1972),Table 3.
C.Employment by industry for the forecast period (1973-
1983),Table 3a.
D.Graphs of statewide employment in basic industries
for 1966-1983,Figures 2-5.
E.Graphs of statewide employment in non-basic industries
for 1966-1983,Figures 6-13.*
F.Graphs of total employment,unemployment,civilian
labor force and total population (1966-1983),Figures
14-17.*
*Each graph presents an annual equation that can be used to
generate the forecast.The equations are discussed briefly
on page 7 of this section and in detail in section I of Volume
II.The abbreviations given for the variable names are
explained in the Time Series Variable List,given in the appeu-
dix to this volume.
39
;
TABLE 2
EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES FOR PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION
1974 Q1 0 1977 Q1 1100
Q2 5900 Q2 1000
Q3 5900 Q3 700
Q4 5300 Q4 400
Average 4Z'(j(j"Average "8]0
1975 Q1 4000 1978 Q1 900
Q2 11000 Q2 4400
Q3 9500 Q3 6400
Q4 4300 Q4 1400
Average 7200 Average TIllO
1976 Q1 4200 1979 Q1 1900
Q2 6500 Q2 2900
Q3 7800 Q3 3400
Q4 4000 Q4 1200
Average 5'61iO Average 2300
The above estimates are for the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline
(1974-1976)and the Alaska-Arctic gas pipeline (1977-1979).
At this time there are no forecasts of pipeline const~uction
for the period 1980-1983.
TABLE 3
Em>LOnlENT BY J:NDUSTRY FOR THE HJ:STORJ:CAL PERJ:OD (1966-72)
State &
Federal Local Total C01ll1llunications Retail Wholesale
Year Govern.Govern.Construction Xfrg.Xining Utilities Trade Trade
1966 17500 13300 5800 6600 1400 2700 8700 2100
1967 17400 14400 6000 6600 2000 2400 9400 2400
1968 16900 15300 6000 6900 2500 2500 10000 2500
1969 16500 16900 6600 7000 3500 2300 11000 2900
1970 17100 18400 6900 8000 2900 2700 12000 3200
1971 17300 20700 7400 7800 2500 3700 13000 3200
1972 17200 23200 7900 8000 2100 3600 13800 3300
Finance Civilian
J:nsurance Non-Total Labor Total
Year Real Est.Transportation Service Categorized Employment Unemployment Force Population
1966 2300 4500 7900 11400 84600 8400 93200 276100
1967 2300 5000 8700 11600 88000 8400 96400 283700
1968 2500 5300 9300 11300 91100 9100 100200 290500
1969 2700 6300 10500 12400 98700 9400 108200 301800
1970 3100 6400 11400 12600 104900 12000 116800 313000
.j:>
1971 3200 6100 12500 13000 110600 12200 122700 319900 0
1972 3700 6400 14000 14200 117600 13600 131200 313600
TABLE 3a
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD(1973-83)
State &Finance
Federal Local Total Communication Retail Wholesale Insurance
Year Govern.Govern.Construction Mfrg.Mining Utilities Trade Trade Real Est.
1973 17000 24800 7700 8800 2100 3700 13800 3400 3700
1974 17200 28500 12300 8700 2600 3700 15700 3900 4200
1975 17500 36000 18200 8800 2900 3700 19800 4900 5200
1976 17500 41700 18300 9000 3000 3700 23000 5700 6100
1917 17500 44500 14000 9500 3000 3800 24300 6000 6400
1978 17600 46400 16800 10000 2800 3800 25000 6200 6600
1979 17600 49000 16500 10300 2900 3800 26400 6500 6900
1980 17700 50300 14400 10700 2900 3900 26900 6600 7100
1981 17700 51600 14600 11000 2900 3900 27300 6700 7200
1982 17800 53900 15100 11300 2900 4000 28400 7000 7500
1983 17800 56600 15700 11600 2900 4000 29700 7300 7800
TABLE 3a (Continued)
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY FOR FORECAST PERIOD (1973-83)
Civilian
Total Labor Total
Year Transportation Service Non-Categorized Workers Unemployment Force Population
1973 6800 14300 13400 119600 13300 132900 328500
1974 8500 17300 13600 136300 14100 150400 363600
1975 11300 23300 13800 165600 17300 183000 427800
1976 12500 27100 14100 181600 21400 203000 467300
1977 12200 28000 14300 183600 23500 207100 475000
1978 12800 29400 14500 191900 23800 215600 489900
1979 13100 30900 14700 198600 25100 223800 504800
1980 12900 31100 15000 199400 25900 225300 506400
1981 12900 31700 15200 202800 26000 228800 513500
1982 13300 33000 15400 209500 26700 236200 528200
1983 13800 34700 15700 217500 27700 245200 546300
-----------------------------~---
4
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT SERVICES
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
3
2
..z...
~1o
"'"Q,
~...
FIGURE 2
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
MINING (MING)
----...
Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
66 68 70 72 74
YEAR
80
FORECAST EQUATION:MING is an exogenously forecasted basic industry.
15
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
----
10
.....
,WIooo
to-5
Zw
~
~...a.
::c....FIGURE ~
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT fORECAST
MANUFACTURING (MFRG)
Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
66 68 70
YEAR
72 4 76 78 80 83
FORECAST EQUATION:MFRG is an exogenously forecasted basic industry.
5 .
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
......
'"ooo
...z...
~>-o..a.
~
III
4·
3
2 FIGURE 4
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FOR~CAST
COMMUNICATIONS)UTILITIES (COMU)
'"
-----
-_._-
"."...,.......---""
--,..,..,....,.--,-~......-'"
Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
808764o6872
YEAR
FORECAST EQUATION:COMU is an exogenously forecasted basic industry.
•'66
21
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
20
19
18
~
0
0 17~..
C
ill
E 16>.
0
0.
E
'"15
14
FIGURE 5
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (FEDL)
.---.Historic Period (Actual)
.._....Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
136.1.6--'~--6-i181---t--7-+b--I1---7+12---+--7~1---+--7-t~--f--7i-18----t----,.8""'IO--+---l812-:--~81~3-
year
FORECASTED EQUATION:FEDL is an exogenously forecasted basic industry.
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
.----.Historic Period (Actual)
e----e Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
FIGURE 6
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION (CONS)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA t
I
I
{
/}<
il[>/
I
I
15 •
20--
-In
0 10 •0
0
I-
Z
w
~>-0
-Ia.
:'E 5w
66 68 8 30
YEAR
FORECAST EQUATION:CONS =-13480.4 +.034313 POPL-l +.59379 FEDL.+PIPELINE CONS.
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
--...--
/..
/;//.;/.
///./;;......:/....:'1
--'';:';''~
FIGURE 7
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT (STLO)
50
20
60
...'Ut 40
oo
9...z
w
~
~30....
II.
~w
10
66 68 70 72 74 76
YEAR
FORECAST EQUATION:STLO =-15055.0 +.092922 POPL-l +18.2519 STEX
78 80 82 83
'10 .
35
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
30·-
25
~.,
·0
o 20 -o
10
FIGURE 8
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
RETAIL TRADE (RETL)
e----o Historic Period (Actual)
__....Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
--
.66 74
YEAR
FORECASTED EQUATION:RETL =_11451.0 +.362468MFRG +.180601MING +.064513 POPL-l +15.1 TIME
9
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
e--_-Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
FIGURE 9
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
WHOLESALE TRADE (WHOL)
7
8
5
4
3
6
2
YEAR
FORECAST EQUATION:WHOL =-160.6 +.143862 MING +.236687 RETL.
66 68 8 80 U1
o
--~---~----------------_._-------~._----------
9.
7-
8-
Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON.MARCH,1974
----
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
FIGURE 10
!o ALASKA EMPLOYMENT.FORECAST
FINANCE)INSURANCE)REAL ESTATE (FIRE)
3·
2-
...
Z
LU
~
>-o....
a.
~...
?oo-2.5
·66 68 4
YEAR
80
20
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
15 .
?g 10"
~
FIGURE 11
._--0
Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
ALASKA Er~PLOYr~ENT FORECAST
TRANSPORTATION (TRAN)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
6'6"'""'I~In-i~o-~l-..--~-1~1~.....-.../"718·-·:=~"8'!C;~,~~~"~"=,,,~,:·n ..=.8~3'"'"~
YEAR
FORECAST EQUATION:TRAN =+901.0+.162967 CONS +.713466 MING +.174706 MFRG +.256229 STLO -87.3'9 TItlE.
-------Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
---Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
35
40
30
~250
0
S
...20 FIGURE 12z
LII ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST:E>-SERVICES (SERV)0...15Co
:E
w
lO
.66 68 70 72 74 76 78
YEAR
FORECAST EQUATION:SERV =-1680.5 -49.27 TIME +.64438 RETL +.16094 CONS +.34271 STLO.
20-
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
'15·
--..
VI
0
0
0
--'
f-lO-:z
I.:J
~
~...
0
_J
t'L.
~
ttl
5·-FIGURE 13
ALASKA E~1PLOYMENT FORECAST
NONCATEGORIZED (NONC)
-----.Historic Period (Actual)_-_4t Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
year
FORECAST EQUATION:NONC =+10288.2 +2481.6 DUM-1965 +56.81 TIME.
300
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
g 200
~..
C
41
E>-o
a.
E
QI
100
FIGURE 14
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
~
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (TEMP)
-..--Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
74 76 78 80 83 tJ1
year
FORECAST EQUATION:TEMP =FEDL +STLO +CONS +MFRG +COMU +RETL +WHOL +FIRE +TRAN +SERV +NONC
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
30
~
'0
o
!:,20-...
r;
iii
8
>~o
Il.
I:
oU
t:
:::i
10 -
FIGURE 15
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
UNEMPLOYMENT (UNEM)
.....--Historic Period (Actual)
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
year
FORECAST EQUATION:UNEM =-964.4 +.060214 TEMP -21445.4 DELTA TEMP +.576633 UNEMT1.'
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
250
-.011
0
0
0........200
w
V
at
0
"-
Co!
0 FIGURE 16In
~150 ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST...
z LABOR FORCE (LABF)
~
=::v
100 '.
.---.Historic Period (Actual)
....-...Forecast Peri od
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
68
year
78 80 83
FORECAST EQUATION:LABF =TEMP +UNEM.
600
500
--..
,Ill
ooo
'-.J 400
Zo
l-
e:(....
:;)a.oa.
....300
COl:...o...
FIGURE 17
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
e----e Historic Period (Est.)
..-...Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
ALASKA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
TOTAL POPULATION (POPl)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
66 68 o 72 74
year
76 78 80
FORECAST EQUATION:POPL =(CDRA LABF)+MILITARY (CORA =Civilian Dependency Ratio)
SECTION 2
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION
The geographic regions discussed in this section are aggre-
gations of Alaska's statistical labor market areas (SLMA)
which have been previously defined in Figure I presented in
the introduction to this volume.
59
;
The regional employment forecasts contained in this section
were generated from the same equation set which was used to
produce the statewide forecasts.Consequently,the sum of
the forecasted employment and population for all of the
regions will always add to the forecast of statewide employ-
ment and population.The distribution of the employment
and population by region is primarily affected by the loca-
tion of the indepdent forecast of basic industry employment
and the manner in which each region responds to these basic
industry demands.
For example,a relatively underdeveloped region such as
Northern Alaska cannot supply most of the services demanded
by the work force residing within the region.Therefore,
employment demands generated in Northern Alaska will ~ve
important effects on the employment of persons in Fairbanks
and Anchorage.A full discussion of the way in which the
60
statewide forecasts were allocated to the regions is con-
tained in Volume II of this study.*
Overall,the Anchorage region is expected to maintain its
dominance within the state of Alaska.In 1972,the Anchorage
region contained approximately 45%of total statewide employ-
ment.**During the pipeline construction period,Anchorage's
share of statewide employment is expected to fall to a low
of approximately 44%but will rise after the period of
pipeline construction to an estimated 46%by
1980.The Fairbanks regions,on the other hand,is expected
to gain in both absolute and relative terms over the fore-
cast period.In 1972,Fairbanks contained appruximately
14.7%of the state's total employment.By 1980,this share
is expected to rise to 15.3%.
The southeast region will follow a pattern very similar
to that of Anchorage declining slightly from its 1972 per-
centage of 18.5%to a 1975 level of lZ.7%.Thereafter,it
will increase rising to a level of 18.6%by 1980.The
southcentral region,on the other hand is expected to rise
from 1972 share of total statewide employment of 13.1%to
a high of 14.4%in 1975.Thereafter,it is expected to
decline reaching a low of 12.5%by 1980.
*The structure of Alaska's labor market,Volume II.
**Regional shares of total employment are also presented in
Table 4 at the end of this section.
The remaining three regions of the state (Southwest,Northwest,
and Northern)are all very small -none of them containing
more than 3.1%of the state's total employment.The Northwest
region is expected to show some slight relative growth both
during the pipeline period ~nd thereafter while the Northern
region is expected to show the greatest change in its
relative share during the period 1978 as a result of our
assumed construction of a gas pipeline.across Northern
Alaska and into the McKenzie Valley
All of the regions,however,are expected to show absolute
increases in employment with the greatest increase occurring
in the Anchorage region (up 46,000 workers)and the southeast
region (up 18,600 workers)..The Fairbanks region is
expected to increase by an estimated 15,900 workers between
1972 and 1983,inclusive,while the Southcentral region is
expected to register a net growth of employment of 11,800
workers over the same period of time.~
Tables and figures of regional employment supporting the
discussions which follow are included at the end of this
section.Table 4 shows total employment by region expressed
as a percent of total state employment.Table 5 shows~
regional shares of statewide employment in each.industry
category for the year 1972,the year upon which the regional
allocation was based.Tables 6 through 16 show the regional
62
forecasts for each industry,one table for each year of the
forecast period (1973-1983).Figures 18 through 24 are
plots of total employment for each of the study regions
over both the historic period (1966-1972)and the forecast
period (1973-1983).
Anchorage Region (Figure 18)
Between 1972 and 1983,inclusive,total employment in the
Anchorage region is expected to increase from 51,700 workers
to 99,900 workers.As a result of this increase in employ-
ment,and labor force,population is expected to increase by
slightly over 75%-going from an estimated 1972 level of
143,200 persons to a 1983 level of 251,000 persons.The
greatest employment increases over the 11 year forecast
period are expected in service employment and state and
local government employment.Service employment is expected
to more than double between 1972 and 1976 and to grow steadily
thereafter reaching a high of 19,100 wDrkers by 1983.State
and local government employment is expected to grow somewhat
more slowly during the period 1972 to 1976,inclusive,but
to increase more rapidly thereafter also reaching a high of
19,100 workers by 1983.Most of this growth (an estimated
two-thirds of the total change)is expected to occur in
local government employment.This should be the product
of several forces.First,the growth of population in the
63
Anchorage area will require increasing employment at both
the city and borough level.In addition,it appears that
both the borough and city of Anchorage will be expanding
the scope of services provided to the population as well
as increasing employment as a result of more people to be
served.Secondly,the increasing movement toward federal
reven~e sharing will mean that the city/borough of Anchorage
will be increasingly designated as a "prime grantee"for the
administration and delivery of various services heretofore
provided by either the Federal government or the state
government.Consequently,even though the mix of services
which are delivered to the population remains the same the
employment of persons will be shifted increasingly to the
city or borough level.
Retail trade is also expected to increase quite rapidly rising
from a 1972 level cf 7,000 workers to an estimated 1983 level.
of 16,200 workers.The greatest rate of inctease will occur
during the period 1972 through 1976,inclusive,when employ-
ment in retail trade is expected to increase by approximately
5,600 workers.Thereafter,employment will gro~at a slower,
but steady,rate increasing by approximately 2,100 workers
between 1976 and 1980 and by an additional 1,500 workers
Jl
between 1980 and 1983.
64
Other industries expected to show rapid gains in employment
over the forecast period are wholesale trade (up from a
1972 level of 2,300 workers to a 1983 level of 5,300 workers)
and finance,insurance and real estate (up from a 1972
level of 2,200 workers to a 1983 level of 5,100 workers)and
transportation services(up from a 1972 level of 2,800 workers
to a 1983 level of 6,100 workers).
The employment of workers by the federal government is expected
to remain relative~y constant over the entire forecast period
as is the employment of workers in the mining industry and
the communications and utilities industry.
Fairbanks Region (Figure 19)
Total employment in the Fairbanks regions is expected to increase
sharply between 1972 and 1976,inclusive,rising from a level of
16,600 workers to a level of 27,200 workers.Thereafter,total
employment is expected to increase by 3,300 workers between
1976 and 1980,inclusive,and by an additional 3,400 worker5
to reach a level of 33,900 workers in 1983.As a result of
these increases in employment,and labor force,the total
population of the Fairbanks region is expected to increase
from its 1972 level of 53,600 persons to a 1983 level of
65
91,100 persons.*Over half of the total increase in popula-
tion is expected to occur over the four year period 1972
through 1976,inclusive,when population will increase by
24,100 persons.
As with Anchorage,the most rapid increase in total employ-
ment will occur among state and local government workers -
an increase of 6,500 workers over the 11 year forecast.This
increase in state and local government employment is expected
to be balanced between state government and local government
with much of the pipeline impact growth occurring between
the 1972-1976 period related to state employment.Thereafter,
the growth of city and borough government employment will
become increasingly important.Construction industry employ-
ment is expected to increase by approximately 1,200 workers
between 1972 and 1976,inclusive,and then to decline by
approximately 200 workers by 1980.However,by 1983 the
construction industry's employment will rise again to teach
a level of 2,400 workers.
Employment in the manufacturing,mining,commun:i;cations,
and utilities industries will continue to be relatively low
and quite stable,all of these industries showing changes
Jlof200orlessemployeesoverthe11yearforecastperiod
and none of them employing more than 600 total workers.
*These estimates of total population include'15,500 active
duty military personnel and their dependents.
66
Retail trade employment in the Fairbanks region will in-
crease steadily throughout the forecast period rising from
a level of 2,000 workers in 1972 to 3,600 workers in 1976
and 4,800 workers in 1983.Because of its close linkages
to retail trade employment,wholesale trade employment will
also increase throughout the forecast period rising from
a level of approximately 400 workers in 1972 to a level of
900 workers in 1983.Although the absolute change in
employment is only 500 workers,this sector will show an
impressive rate of growth exceeding 100%over the 11 year
forecast.
Finance,insurance and real estate workers (FIRE)will increase
from approximately 500 in 1972 to 900 in 1976.Thereafter,
FIRE employment will increase by a moderate 200 workers
between 1976 and 1980 and an additional 100 workers between
1980 and 1983 to reach a high of 1,200 workers.
Employment in transportation services is expected to double
between 1972 and 1976,inclusive,rising from a level of 900
workers to one of 1,800 workers over that period.Thereafter,
transportation employment is expected to be virtually constant,
increasing by only 100 workers over the eight year period
1976 to 1983,inclusive.
67
r
Service employment,on the other hand,is expected to grow
very rapidly throughout the forecast period.This industry
employed 2,200 workers in 1972 and is expected to increase
by more than 100%over a five year period to reach a level
of 4,600 workers in 1976.Service employment will increase
by an additional one-third between 1976 and 1983 increasing
to a high of 6,100 workers by the end of the forecast period.
Southeast Region (Figure 20)
Total employment in the southeast region is expected to
increase by 19,400 workers over the forecast period rising
from a 1972 level of 21,000 to a 1983 level of 40,400.As
a result of this growth in total employment,and labor force,
total population in the region is expected to increase from the
1972 level of 48,400 persons to a level of 92,300 persons
by 1983 -an increase of 91%over the 11 year forecast period.
The rapid period of population growth in the region will
occur between 1972 and 1976 when total population is e~pected
to increa~by 26,600 persons or 55%.
The most rapid growth of employment in the Southeast region
is expected to occur in the state and local government sector
where the number of workers will increase from a 1972 level
~
of 5,600 to a 1983 level of 14,200.Most of the increase in
state and local government employment in the southeast region
68
will be in state government employment and will be centered
in the Juneau area.*Most other forms of basic employment
are expected to show moderate employment gains with construc-
tion increasing by approximately 1,100 workers and manufac-
turing increasing by 1,000 workers over the total forecast
period.
Other non-basic employment is expected to show significant
increases also.Retail trade will increase from a 1972
level of 2,100 workers to reach a 1983 high of 4,700.
Transportation services will also rise rapidly with most
of the growth occurring between 1972 and 1976 when employ-
ment is expected to rise by 1,500 workers to a high of
3,100.Thereafter,transportation employment will remain
relatively constant increasing hv only 200 workers over the
eight year period from 1976 to 1983 to reach a forecasted
high of 3,400.
Service employment will rise rapidly during the period 1972
to 1976 and will maintain a substantial rate of increase
thru 1983.Service employment in 1972 was 1,600 workers.
It is expected to rise to 3,300 workers by 1976 and 3,800
workers by 1978.Another 500 workers will be added to reach
a level of 4,300 in 1983.
*rhis is under the assumption that the state capitol will not
be moved as a result of the referendum which is being held in
~ovember,1974.
69
r
Southcentra1 Region (Figure 21)
The southcentra1 region is expected to grow very rapidly over
the period 1972 to 1976,inclusive,as a result of pipeline
construction -particularly the construction of terminal
facilities in the Valdez area.As a result,total employ-
ment is expected to increase from a 1972 level of 14,900
to a 1976 level of 25,400 workers.Over the five year period from
1976 through 1980,inclusive,employment is expected to
decline by approximately 500 workers to a level of 24,900.
After 1980 it will begin rising again to reach a 1983
level of 27,200.Because of these fluctuations in employ-
ment,population is also expected to rise quite rapidly
between the period 1972 to 1976,inclusive,growing from
a level of 43,700 to a 1976 level of 65,600.Despite the
fact that total employment will be declining slightly between
1976 and 1980,total population in the Southcentra1 region
is expected to be virtually constant over the same period
of time with the difference being made up by inc~easing
unemployment.Between 1980 and 1983,population will begin
rising again,as a result of employment increases,and will
reach a forecasted level of 70,600 workers by 1983.
The greatest fluctuation in employment in the SouthcenJra1
region will occur among construction workers where employ-
ment is expected to rise from a 1972 level of 900 persons
'I'\
i'lII
70
to a 1976 level of 5,000.By 1980,construction employ-
ment is expected to decline to 1,700 workers (a loss of
3,300 jobs)and then rise moderately to a level of 1,900
workers by 1983.
As was true elsewhere in Alaska,state and local government
employment is expected to show steady employment gains
throughout the period rising from a 1972 level of 3,000
workers to a forecasted 1983 level of 7,700 workers.Most
of these gains are expected in the area of local government
as a result of the growth of local government services provided
through such communities as Valdez,Cordova,Seward,etc.
Manufacturing employment in the Southcentral region,particularly
employment in fishing and forestry,is expected to show moderate
but steady gains in employment rising from an estimated 2,400
workers in 1972 to a forecast of 3,700 workers by 1983.This
growth of manufacturing employment occurs at a steady rate
of approximately 100 workers per year throughout the fore-
cast period.Mining employment is expected to increase in
the Southcentral region rising by approximately 50%from
a 1972 level of 600 workers to a 1976 level of 900 workers.
After 1976,however,the forecast shows that mining employ-
ment will be constant in this region.
71
Among the non-basic industries,the retail trade employment
in the Southcentral region is expected to increase moderately
rising from a level of 1,100 workers in 1972 to a high of
2,600 workers in 1983 - a growth of 1,500 workers over the
11 year forecast.Wholesale trade,responding to the growth
in retail trade will also grow but will remain relatively
small in size employing only 600 workers by 1983.In a
similar manner,finance,insurance and real estate employ-
ment is expected to increase significantly in percentage
terms but will remain a relatively small industry growing
from a 1972 level of 200 workers to a forecasted 1983 level
of 500 workers.
Transportation employment is expected to double between
1972 and 1980,inclusive,rising from 500 workers to 1,000
workers.Between 1980 and 1983,however,transportation
employment in the region is expected to be constant.~ervice
employment is expected to more than double between 1972
and 1976 growing from 1,200 workers to 2,500 workers.There-
after,it is expected to increase moderately tOea level
of 2,800 workers in 1980 and 3,200 workers in 1983.
Southwest Region (Figure 22)
The Southwest region had a total employment of only 3,600
workers in 1972.This total is expected to rise moderately
72
over the entire forecast period,but by 1983 the region's
total employment will still be only 6,300 workers.Reflecting
this moderate rate of growth in employment,and labor force,
the region's population is expected to grow from its 1972
level of 9,800 workers to a forecasted 1983 level of 15,800
workers.Most of this growth will occur during the period
1972 to 1976 ,inclusive.
In 1972 the only industries in the Southwest region to
employ more than 750 workers were Federal government and
state and local government.Federal government employment
is expected to remain virtually-constant throughout the
forecast period while state and local government is expected
to be the region's "growth industry"-rising from a level
of 800 workers in 1972 to a level of 2,000 workers in 1983.
This growth of state and local government could very well
be high for the Southwest region.The general lack of
population in the area would seem to indicate a much slower
growth rate in the state and local government sector.Con-
sequently,it is most probable that the growth of state and
local government employment in this region is related to
the inability of our regiDnal allocation system to deal with
such small employment levels as are evident in the Southwest.
With respect to non-governmental parts of the economy,employ-
ment throughout is expected to be highly stable with some
73
r
slight growth occurring in the service,transportation,
finance,insurance and real estate,and retail trade sectors.
In none of these industries,however,will employment be
increasing by more than 400 workers over the 11 year fore-
cast period.
Nor~hwest Region (Figure 23)
Total employment in the Northwest region was 3,600 persons
in 1972.This is forecasted to increase to 6,600 workers
by 1976 and to 7,300 workers by 1978.Reflecting the growth
of employment,and labor force,population in the Northwest
region is expected to climb from its 1972 level of 9,100
persons to a 1983 level of 17,200 workers.Eighty percent
of this growth of population is expected to occur between
the period 1972 and 1976 with most of it attributable to the
growth of construction employment and local government
employment.As was discussed above with respect to the
Southwest region,the growth of state and local government
emple/ment mo~t probably results from the inability of our
regional allocation system to deal with such slightly
populated regions as the Northwest.Consequently,the
region may not grow nearly as rapidly as the forecasts
indicate.On the other hand,the forecast for mining
4
employment shows an increase of 400 workers between 1972
and 1976 and a decrease of 100 workers thereafter to reach
a 1983 level of 700.There has been some speculation that
74
hard rock mining will develop in the Northwest region.If
it does,it could cause significant increases in employment
in the mining sector and could cause population and employ-
ment in this region to grow more rapidly.
Northern Region (Figure 24)
The Northern region is the least densely populated region
throughout Alaska.In 1972,its employment level was 1,800
workers and its population level was 5,700 persons.By
1976,the total employment in the Northern region is exp~ced
to grow to 3,700 workers and its population is expected to
increase to 9,200 persons.Approximately 58%of the total
growth in employment between 1972 and 1976,inclusive,
results from the addition of 1,100 workers in the construction
industry.This growth of construction employment in the
region is related to the growth of the Trans-Alaska pipeline
and the subsequent forecasted construction of an natural gas
pipeline across Northern Alaska.
By 1980,the pipeline construction is expected to be over
and construction employment will decline from its 1976
level of 1,100 workers to a 1980 level of 100 workers -all
of whom will be employed as maintenance workers under con-
tract to one or the other pipeline companies.As a result,
total emplo)~ent in the region is expected to decline
75
r
from its 1976 level of 3700 workers to a 1980 level of 3000
workers -and this will produce a drop in population of
approximately 500 persons to a level of 8700 in 1980.Between
1980 and 1983,both employment and population are expected
to increase moderately with employment adding an additional
200 workers to reach a level of 3200 and population to
increase by 200 persons to reach a level of 8900.
State and local government is expected to rise between 1972
and 1976,inclusive,by 400 workers to reach a high of 800.
Thereafter,it is expected to grow moderately reaching a
level of 1100 workers in 1983.Almost all of the growth
of state and local government employment is expected to
occur at the local government level as a result of increased
employment by the North Slope Borough.
g;e~,
TABLE 4
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY REGION
%%%%
Year Anchorage State Fairbanks State Southeast State Southcentra1 State
1966 (Historical)36000 42.5 13300 15.7 16300 19.3 12500 14,8
1967 37100 42.2 13400 15.3 16800 19.3 14100 16.1
1968 38200 41.9 14000 15.4 17500 19.2 14700 16.2
1969 42500 43.1 15500 15.7 17700 17.9 14500 14.7
1970 47100 44.9 16100 15.4 18900 18.0 13800 13.2
1971 51000 46.1 16300 14.8 19600 17.7 15000 13.6
1972 51700 45.8 17300 14.7 21800 18.5 15400 13.1
1973 (Forecast)54100 45.3 17700 14.7 22600 18.9 15800 13.2
1974 60500 44.4 20200 14.8 24800 18.2 18100 13.3
1975 72900 44.0 24900 15.0 29300 17.7 23800 14.4
1976 81200 44.7 27200 14.9 32400 17.9 25400 14.0
1977 84000 45.7 27900 15.1 33700 18.4 23500 12.8
1978 86700 45.2 28800 15.0 34900 18.2 23700 12.3
1979 90200 45.4 30000 15.1 36300 18.3 24600 12.4
1980 91500 45.9 30500 15.3 37000 18.6 24900 12.5
1981 93100 45.9 30900 15.2 37700 18.6 25400 12.5
1982 96200 45.9 31900 15.2 38900 18.6 26200 12.5 ....,
0-
1983 99900 45.9 33200 15.3 40400 18.6 27200 12.5
TABLE 4
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY REGION
(Continued)
%%%
Year Southwest State Northwest State Northern State
1966 (Historical)2500 3.0 2100 2.4 18'00 2.1
1967 2500 2.8 2300 2.6 1600 1.9
1968 2600 2.8 2600 2.8 1600 1.7
1969 3000 3.0 4000 4.1 1500 1.5
1970 3400 3.3 3900 3.7 1500 1.5
1971 3400 3.1 3500 3.2 1600 1.5
1972 3700 3.1 3700 3.1 1800 1.5
1973 (Forecast)3700 3.1 3800 3.1 1900 1.5
1974 4100 3.0 4800 3.5 3900 2.0
1975 4700 2.8 5900 3.6 4100 2.5
1976 5200 2.8 6600 3.6 3700 2.0
1977 5300 2.9 6400 3.5 2800 1.5
1978 5500 2.9 6800 3.5 5700 3.0
1979 5700 2.9 6900 3.5 4900 2.5
'"1980 5800 2.9 6700 3.4 3000 1.5
1981 5900 2.9 6800 3.4 3000 1.5
''''''''1982 6100 2.9 7000 3.4 3100 1.5 'I;,
,".......:1.....,
1983 6300 2.9 7300 3.4 3200 1.5
TABLE 5
/!LASKA EMl?LOl:XENT BY INDUSTRY AND REGIONAL SHARES,1972
Total Share of
ANCH FAIR SE SC SW NW N Alaska Total Emp.
Federal Government .54 .17 .11 .07 .05 .04 .02 17200 .14
State &Local Govern..34 .18 .25 .13 .04 .04 .02 23200 .20
Construction .54 .15 .14 .12 .01 .03 .01 7900 .07
Manufacturing .15 .03 .44 .30 .07 .01 *8000 .07
Mining .38 .05 .03 .30 .02 .17 .05 2100 .02
Communication,Utilities .47 .15 .12 .10 .01 .03 .12 3600 .03
Retail Trade .55 .15 .16 .09 .02 .02 .01 13800 .12
Wholesale Trade .72 .13 .07 .08 ** *
3300 .03
Finance,Insure,Real Est..65 .15 .12 .06 .01 .01 *3700 .03
Transportation .44 .14 .25 .07 .04 .05 .01 6400 .05
Service .55 .17 .12 .09 .03 .03 .01
14000 .12
Non-Categorized .40 .12 .19 .23 .03 .02 .01 14200 .12
Total Workers .46 .15 .18 .13 .03 .03 .02
117400 LOO
Unemployment .37 .15 .15 .19 .07 .05 .02 13600
Civilian Labor Force .45 .16 .18 .14 .03 .03 .02 131200
....,
0::>
*Less than 0.01
TABLE 6
INSTITUTE OF SOCUL,ECCNCNIC HO GOVERNNE~T ~ESEARC"
U~IVERSnY CF 'L'S~A COLLEGE,AL'S~A
A L AS'A E N P LOY~E~T FOREC'ST
FREFAREC BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE·SOTTLE,N'SHnGTO~
ANNU'L ,VERAOE FO~1913
FOREe-ST,RUN 30 NHOH 191~
10T.6l
ANC"OR'OE FAIRB,lINKS SOUTHE'ST SOUTHOENT SOUTH NEST NO~THNEST NORTHERN ALASK,I
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 9200 2~DO le50 1200 e50 100 350 11000
STATE +LCCAL GCVERNHENT 8~00 ~500 6250 3350 ':00 liSO 500 2'4800
CONSTRUCTION lTCULI ~150 1150 1100 9150 100 250 50 7700
H,lINUFACTURING 130G 250 3liSO 2E!:O !HiD 100 8eOQ
MINING 100 ISO 50 100 50 300 200 2100
CCHHU '"leAl IO~,U1 ILIllES 11C0 550 ~50 350 50 100 ~50 3100
RETAIL TRADE 1550 2150 2200 1200 300 300 100 13800
WHOLESALE TRADE 2450 ~50 250 250 3ltOO
FINANCE,INSURE,RE,IL EST 2~00 550 ~50 250 50 50 3100
HANSPO~UTION 3000 1000 1100 500 250 300 50 6800
SERVICE te50 2450 1150 1300 350 050 ISO 1~300
NON-CnEGCRIZEO 5350 1E50 2600 3100 350 250 100 13~00
TOTAL HCRKEPS 5~100 11100 22600 15800 3100 lEOO 1900 119600
L,lIECR FeHeE AND PCFULnIO~O.TA
ut.eHPLOYHENT 6100 1950 2450 1750 '00 oDD 200 13300
CIVILIAh L,IlBOR FO~CE 60Z
l
0C l13EOO 25000 17600 4200 HOD 2100 132900
CIVILIAh OEFENOEN1S 63300 20600 26300 USDa ~~00 ~~OO 2200 139500
CIVILIAP..POPULAlICN 123500 '."0200 SHOO 36000 8500 !EOO ~200 272400
HILITARY EI'l.FLCYHENT 12200 7300 600 ~~OO '00 ~00 800 26500 .....
MILITARY DEPENDENTS 13600 8200 600 5000 liDO ~OO 900 29600 <.0
HILITARY PCPULATICN 25800 15500 1200 9~00 IE 00 '00 1100 56100 '....~
".""'<
TOTAL PCPUL'TIO~1~9300 55100 52500 ~5500 10200 9~00 5900 328500
EFFECTIVE OEPEHCE~CY RUles IFCPUL'TIC~/LABOR FORCEI EXCLUDING HILn'RY 2.05000 I~CLUDING t'UU,IAY •2.0ISlE!
TABLE -7
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOHIC ANO GOVE~NHEH ~ESEARC~
UNIVERSIT~CF AL_SKA CQlLEGE,AUSfCI1
,L ,S K A E N F LCTNENT FOREC'S
PREPUEO 8Y tlUtlUI RESCUHES PLANNING INSTITUTE·SEHTLE,WASHINGTON
ANNUAL 'VE~AGE FO~197~
FORECAST,RUN 3D NA~C~19H
TCHl
ANCNOR_CE FAIRBANKS SOUTHE_ST SOUTHCENT SOUTHWEST NORTHWEST NCRTHERN ALASKA
FEDERAL GCVERNNENT 9tH 2950 HOD 1200 HO !50 350 11200
STATE.LCCH GCVERNNENT 13E50 5150 7200 3850 1100 1100 550 28500
CONSTRUCTICN ITCT AL I ..850 tHO 1250 1900 100 500 1900 12300
H_NUFACTURING 1~01 250 3150 Usn !50 100 8700
HINUG e50 1'50 50 !OO 50 550 150 2600
CC HHU h ICAT I ON ,UT IL rTIE S 1701 550 ~50 350 50 100 ~50 3700
RETAIL TR_OE 8&01 2~50 2500 I~OO 350 350 100 15700
WHCLESAlE TRADE zest 500 250 300 3900
FINAfrlCE,I ~SURE,RE.al EST 2700 650 SOD 250 50 50 ~200
TRANSPC~HTION 3750 HOD 2100 650 300 ~00 50 11500
SERVICE 9550 2950 2150 1600 ~50 550 150 17300
NeN-CATEGORIZED 5 ..50 tHO 2600 3150 HO 250 100 13600
fCTAL HORKERS 60500 20200 2iteoo 18100 ~IOO HOD 3CiOD 136300
LHC~FCRCE _.0 PCHLATIO.DHA
Ut.EHPLCyHE.NT Hl'.iC aDO 2E50 1HO ~50 ~50 150 Iltl011
CIVILIA~ueCR FO~CE 6"7'000 22300 2HOO 1«;900 11500 HOD ~OOO 150ltOO
CIVILlAfri DEPENDENTS 7070C 2~200 2~OOO 20600 ..eoo SItOD 2 ..00 157100
CIVILIA~PCPULATICN 137700 "6"00 H500 1tC5CO 'EJDO 10EOO EItOO 3tl1501i
MILITARY E!"'PLCYf'nl !C200 1300 600 r.ltOO !OO ~OO '00 26500 co
MILITARY DEPENDENTS 1360C 8200 600 5000 «;00 ~OO 900 29600 0
flHITARY PCPULAlICh 25'00 15500 1200 9"00 HeD .00 1700 56100
TOTAL PCPULATIOt-163500 62000 57600 50000 10900 11!:00 IUOO 3~3600
EFFECTIVE CEPENCEllC'Y R_TlC!(FCFULA1JC~/LABOR FCRCEI EXCLUOING HILIT'RY II:2.0'4"'51 I~ClUINC I'UIURY 2.C55U
TABLE 8-
IhSTITUTE OF SCCIAL,ECChONIC AhO GOVERNNEh1 RESEARCH
UHVERSITT CF 'LAS.A COLLEGE,'USte:,
A L ASIC'A E N P LOTNENT FORECAST
FREFAHC BY HUNAh RESOURCES FL.NNING nSTlTUTE -SEITTLE,WASHHG10~
UNUAl AVERAGE FOR 1975
FCREC'ST,RU!'i 30 I'AfiC'"1974
1C1H
ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS SOUTHEAST SOUTHCHT SOUTHWEST NORTHWES1 NCRTHERN AL.Ste:A
FEDERAL GOVERNMEN1 9C!SC 3000 1':50 1100 c.:OO 'liDO 500 17500
STATE •LCCAL GCVERNHEhT 1220C 6500 9050 4900 1300 1400 700 JEDDO
CONSTRUCTION fTCULJ 6300 2700 1600 5200 100 700 1700 18200
N'~UFAC1URING 14CC 250 JeOO 28!O HO 100 e80C
NINING COO 100 50 850 50 750 250 2900
CC"f'lUN leAl I ON ,U 1 Il IT I ES 1750 550 450 350 50 100 450 3700
RETAIL 1RAOE 10!50 3100 3150 1750 "5n \50 100 19800
W"'OlESALE TRADE JEOO 600 350 400 /tC;:OD
F INA NeE .1 t-.SURE,RE"l EST 3 ..00 800 600 380 50 50 5200
TRANSPORTATIOt.5000 1600 2800 850 400 550 100 11300
SERVICE 12e5G 3QSO 2850 211:10 EOO 100 200 23300
NCN-C,IT EGOR 12EO 555e 1700 2E50 3200 JSO 250 100 13800
rQfl1l HCRkERS 7ZC:OO 2"900 29300 23800 4100 5'::00 "100 1E5600
LAeoR FCRCE ANC PCPUUTIOt-.aATA
Uf<lEHPLOYHENT 7,1OC 2600 3100 2300 SOD eoo 500 17300
C]VIllAt.lABCR FORCE 8060e 21500 32 ..00 26200 5200 6500 4600 1153000
CIVILIU OEPHOENTS 811500 2uaD 3 ..1100 2!:7DO 51i00 eeoo 3400 188800..
16S 10t-CIVILIA~PCPULATIOi SEEaO 6Elt00 51900 10100 13100 eooo 371700
I1ILIURY Ef'FLCYf"Et.T 122"7300 eoo 1i1i00 100 _00 600 2E!00
00
MILITARY DEPENDENTS 13EC 0 1200 EOO 511110 ~oo _00 ~oo H600 f-'
MILITARY POPULATICN 256"1S500 1200 ~4tOO HOD 800 1100 HUG ......t",
TOTAL FCPUlATIOt.190CillO 72200 67600 61300 12300 14000 ':600 427800
EFFECTIVE OEPENCHeY Rnte!.FCPUl At JCh/l.eOR FeRCEI nCLUCING rllIURT •2.GaUlt INClUOUG "UIT lAY •2.0"282
TABLE 9
nSTITUTE OF SCCIoGL,ECCHtllC He GOVERNI'H T HSEARCfO
Ut.IVERSITY CF ~LASI<A COLLEGE,AUSlCti
A L ASK A E H P LOYHENT FORECAST
FREF'HC 8Y ,"ut'!,u F(ESCl:f;CES FlUt.HG H'SlITUTE -SEtlTlE,)USHIHTC~
ANNUAL J1VERAGE FOR 191E
FCRECAST,RUN 30 t'Af;Ctl HHI.j
TCTH
AtlCHQRAGE FURB.6NkS SOUTHEAST SOUTHCEt-T SOUTHWEST NOiiHIHEST NCf<THERN ALASKA
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 9ZSC 3000 1~50 1100 900 c;DO 500 17500
STATE +LCCAl GCVERNHENT lItl0n 7HO 10500 5650 1500 1£00 800 "1700
CC~STf;UCTIC"(leHU HOD 22!;O uoo HOD 150 eoo 1100 UJOC
H,ll~UFACTURING 11f5C JSQ JeOO 2900 .50 100 ~OOO
HINltoG 750 100 50 e50 50 HO 250 3000
COMMU"leA TI eN,U1 Il IT I e s 1750 550 '50 350 50 100 .50 3700
RETAIL TRADE I2Ett 3EOO 3E50 2000 550 sao 150 23000
WHOLESALE TRADE 4HO 700 .00 450 5700
F INA NeE ,I NSURE,REAL EST 3t:50 ':00 700 350 50 50 6100
TRANSFOIHAlIn 55C t HOO 3100 ~50 4S0 EOO 100 12500
SERVICE lit c;~0 HOD 3350 2450 700 eoo eso 27100
NCN-CATEGCRIZEO 5EO!1750 2700 3300 ~'5 0 eSO 100 14100
TOTAL HCRKER$81200 27200 32400 25400 SeOO EEOO 3700 181600
UEOR FCRCE AND PCFllATIOt.D.eU
UHI1FlCyHHT ~5'5 0 3200 HOD 3000 EOO 750 '50 21 ~00
CIVIL IJ1tI L.eecR FCHE 90ec 0 30400 3E200 28400 se 00 7~00 4200 203000
CIVIlIJ1tI DEPENDENTS 94:::DC 31800 37EOO 27800 6000 7400 3400 208200
CIVIlIH FCFULATICN 185000 62200 73800 56200 11100 14eoo 7500 411300
MILITARY El"PlCYHt-T 12200 7300 EOO 4400 eoo _00 800 U500 00
MILITARY CEPENDENTS IHOD 8200 EOO 5000 ':00 400 ~OO 29600 tv
HIL 11 ARY PCPULATICfrI 2'5600 15500 1200 ~400 1600 800 17110 56100
TOTAL FCPULATIOt-210600 77700 75000 65EOO 13400 15Eao '3200 ItE7300
E:FFECTIVE DFPFNnFNr:v tl=l":l=lll f111r:.."I.6AnD 1=nDt!1='1 NTI TT.II.DY '"..,.,,.TAClv _
TABLE 11
INSTITUTE OF SCCIAL,ECC~CHIC A~O GOVERNHENT RESEARC~
L~IVERSITY OF ALASNA COllEGE,AtASIlA
•L •S N •E H P LOY.E~T FOREC'ST
FREFHEt BY HU"AN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEnTlE,W'SHIHTC~
At-NU,IL ,OVERAGE FO,"1l37e
FCRECAST,RUN 30 I'4ARCIol 1971(
TOTAL
ANCHORHE FURBAhlCS SOL Tt4EIIST SCU1HCEPiT SOUT!'iWEST NCF<1tHl'EST NcnllEf;Pi .LASteA
FEDERAL GQVERNI'4EtH CJi1!C 3000 H5D 1100 ~oo 'iDa 500 17600
STATE +LeCH GCVEfHoi"HT 15£50 8"00 l1E50 6300 tHO seoo 500 "e ..oo
CONSTRUCTICN neTAl)14H 2000 11;50 tESO 150 700 2950 16800
HAPiUFACTURING 1700 .00 4000 3300 .50 100 50 10000
HINING 70t 100 so 850 50 eoo 250 2800
CCiHMUNICATION,UlI LI TI es 1750 550 .50 400 SO 100 450 3800
RETAIL TRUE 13700 3C:OO "000 2200 550 Bo 150 C500C
HfolOlESALE TRADE ....5C eoo 400 500 E200
FINANCE ,INSURE,RUt EST 14300 1000 750 .00 50 50 HOD
TRANSPORT ,lITICN SESU 1850 3150 550 .50 Eoo 100 12800
SERVICE 16200 5000 3EOO 2£:50 750 Ciao 250 29400
NDN-CUeGCl;rZEO 5800 18110 aoo 3400 ;!!D 250 100 14500
TOTAL HOR ICERS 86700 28800 34900 23700 5500 6700 5700 151500
LASCR FORCE AND POPutnIOPi OllTA
U","EHPLOyHENT 10ese 3600 ..350 3000 700 r50 1450 23800
CIVILUH LABOR FORCE 57500 32400 3C::~00 2E700 6200 HOD E1DO 215E00
CIVILIA"DEPENDENts 99"00 3,.300 39900 27200 E300 7EOO 3500 218200
CIVILIA"PCPULATICN 196900 6E600 79100 53800 12500 15200 9700 ..33800
MILITARY Et'PLOY"'ENT 12,OC 1300 EOO .400 eoo 400 800 26500 co
MILITARY DEPENDENTS 13E00 8200 600 5000 500 .00 C::OO 2Ci600 ..,.
MILITARY POPUUTICN 258tO 15500 HOD ~1400 iEOO eoo 1700 5E100
TOTAL PCPULA7I0~222700 82200 80300 63300 1 ..,00 tEOOO 11300 ..89900
£FF£CTYV[O[P[NC[Nl':Y RITI[~IFl"'FULITTl"'k/LIAnR ~nRr.F')tfTI TT.llDY ..T),lt'lllnT ..r.IIITI TTIIDY
--_._-------------------------------
TABLE 12
nSllTUTE QF SOCIAL,ECCNCHIC HC GOVERNHENT RESElRCH
UNIVERSITY OF lLlSKl COLLEGE,ALASk.
l L II S '"II E ~P LCY~ENT FOREelST
PREFlREC SY HUHlH RESOUHES PL.eHhUG nSTITUTE •SEHTLE,'USHltiGT~lI
ANNUAL AVERAGE FOI(1979
fORECIlST,RUN 30 "'ARCH 19H
TtT.-
ANCHORAGE FURSlNKS SOUTHE lST SOUTNCENT SOUTHWEST NOFiTHtHST NORTHERN AL"~I<,D
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ~2H 3000 lCiSO 1100 SOO ':00 500 1 i600
STATE +LeCAl GCVERfI,HUT 16S5C 8eso 12300 EE50 1750 HOD 950 "9000
CCNS1RUCTICN nCTAl)HOO 2100 2050 1100 1150 no 20!D 11:500
H.eNliFACTURING usc 400 4100 3 ..00 "50 100 50 10300
MINING 700 150 50 SOO 50 750 250 2900
CC~HU~ICAnOh,UtILITIES !eOG 550 450 400 ~O 100 HD 3800
RETAIL TRACE 1 ....50 &tl00 4200 2300 EOO 550 150 2Hao
HHOLESAlE TRADE ..700 800 450 500 &500
F I NA NeE,I PI SURE,REA L EST ItSOC 1050 800 400 ~O ~O ESOO
TRANSPOR,.elrON 5eeo 1900 3250 1000 '50 EOO 100 IJI00
SERVICE 170.00 5250 3800 2800 EOO '=50 300 JOSOO
NON-CA TE GOR lIED 5':00 1800 2850 3450 .00 300 100 1.700
TCTlL HCRIl'ERS 902CC 3D000 JlJOO 24EOO 5100 EliDa 4900 1geEDO
L,/IeO~FCRCE AND PCPl'lHrOfrl:OUA
ut-EHFLCYH£t.,T Ihoo J800 £1550 IlOO 100 c,:oo E5D 25100
CIVILIAN LliBOR FORCE 10HOt 3 ~e00 ..OliOO 27700 EltOO ?EOO 5600 2~J81111
CIVILIl"DEPENDEN1S 102700 351110 41300 28000 HOD HOD 3700 225000.
CIVILIAN POPULATICN 20C.~C(HellO 82200 55E DO H~OO 1Hoo C;30o ..lte700
MILITA~Y Et'FLCYt',EPil 1220C 7300 EOO "00 800 '00 800 2E500 00
I1ILIlARY OEF£!o;OENTS 13EIIO 8200 EOO 5000 SOO '00 ~OO 296110 U1.HILITARY POPUlAlION 25EOO 15500 1200 -;..00 lEOO 800 1700 5611111
·.....'t'i_
TOTAL PCPULATIOfrl 23010C 8""00 83 ..00 65100 111500 16C.tO 11000 504800
EFFECTIVE CEPENCUCY RHICS lFCFULHIC./LABOR FCRCEI EKCLUDHG MILIUAY •2.00!36 IhCLUDI.C ~ILIHRY •2.01750
TABLE 13
HSTITUTE OF SQCloAL,ECCNCHIC AhD GOVERNI'!EH FiESE,ARCfoI
UNIVERSITV OF ~L~S>~COLLEGE,ALASKA
~L fA S K fA E t!F LCV_E.T FOREC~ST
PREF~RED 8V HUN~N RESDUHES PlAHt-.UG nST1TUTE -SEATTLE,.~SHINCTDN
ANNUAl AVERAGE FOIi 1980
FCRECAST,RUN 30 !'AliCH 19111
TOTAL
ANCt'ORAH F~IR8~N.S SDUTHBST SDUTHCENT SOUT~)IE S1 NORTHWEST NCRTHERN ALASK'
FEDER~l GOVERNNENT qJOO 3000 2000 HOO HO ~00 500 17700
STATE +lCC~L GCVERNNENT 17000 9100 12650 6800 1800 H50 1000 50300
CCNSTRUCTION nCTAll 7800 2150 2050 1750 150 450 100 14400
H.eNUFACTURIHG 1C.:~0 450 4300 3450 500 HO 50 10700
HINIIIIG 700 150 50 900 50 750 250 2900
C(HHUNICA nON ,U1It nIES HOD 600 450 400 SO 100 450 3500
RETAIL TR,AOE 1&1100 4200 1t300 23!O EOO EOO 150 26900
WtlOLESHE TRADE 'teoo 850 450 SOD 6600
FINANeE ,I tiSURE,Re,L EST 4600 1050 850 450 50 50 7100
TRANSflOfiTATION 5700 1850 HOD 950 HO EOO 100 12900
SERVICE 17150 5300 le50 2e50 eoo ~50 300 31100
NCN-C.lTEGCIHZEO EOOO tHO HOD 3500 \00 300 100 15000
TOTAL \llCRKERS 91500 30500 37000 24500 5800 E700 3000 1994 DO
L.ABOR FO~CE AND PCPUL,l'IOfrl DUA
UHMFLOVHefH IleaD 3950 "'50 3200 750 c:ou 550 25900
CIVIlI.6N LAE!OFi FORCE 103300 3 ....00 ..1800 28100 6500 HOD 3500 225300
CIVIlIAt.DEPENDENTS 103ao 34400 41700 28100.6500 1600 3500 225000
CIVILIA"FCPULATIet;cOESOC 68800 83!!00 5E200 13COO 1!JOO 1000 4S030C
HIlITAI<Y Ef"FLCYI'n T 12200 7300 EOO 4400 eoo 400 800 26500 00
MILITARY OEPEfo;OENTS 13EOO 8200 EOO 5000 c.:oo 400 900 2c;600 0-
I'4IllTAI<Y PCFUlATICt-.2S80C 15~OO 1200 9400 HOO eoo 1700 SEIDD
TOTAL PCPUl~TIO'232300 84300 84700 65700 14700 16100 8100 SOEIIOO
EFFEC7nE DEPENCENCV RATIeS CFCFULAlJCN/lABOR FORCE)EXClUDIhG MILITARY 1.liCi~00 INClUOHG f(ILIT ARY z 2.111173
~-~---~-~-----------------------
TABLE 14
INSTITUTE OF SOCI IL,ECCNCMIC UO GOVERNMENT RESEIRCH
UNIVERSITV CF ILIS'A COLLEGE,ALIS",
ALASKA E M P LCV'ENT FORECIST
FREF,lIIiEt BY HU"'N IiESOUIiCES FLA""IttG nSlITUTE ..SEUTLE,WISNHCTON
ANNUIL IVERAGE FCR 1981
FCRECAST.RUN 30 .ARCH 197~
lCTH
Al\ttlORHE FURUtlKS SOUTHEAST SCUTHCENT SOUTlHIE S1 NOfi.THWEST NCIOTtlE"N ALlSIC,lI
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ClJOe 3000 2000 1100 C30Q C;:OO 500 17700
STATE +LCCIL GCVERNMENT 17~50 9J~O 13000 7000 U50 2000 1000 51GOO
CCNSTRUCTICN lTeTH)7C300 2150 2100 1750 150 450 100 1 ~6 CO
H,oNUFACTURH:G 2100 350 &iIIOO 3550 500 100 50 111100
HltHt-G 750 200 50 «;l00 50 700 200 2900
CCHHUNICA TION.U11 LIT IES 1850 GOO ~50 ~oo 50 100 ~50 3900
RETUL lR,IOE 111c;50 4250 ~350 2400 EOO EOO 150 27300
WHOLESALE TRADE ..eSQ 850 ~50 500 6700
F HUCE ,I "SURE,REAL EST 'tHO 1100 850 ~50 50 50 7200
TRANSFOIiTHION SHe 1!!!O JCOG c;so 1450 EOO 100 12~00
SERVICE 171450 5400 3':00 2900 eoo HO 300 31700
NC h-C ATEGCR IZEO fiDO leSO 2CiSO 3550 400 ~00 100 15200
TOTAL HCRlCERS Q3100 JOC;OO 37700 25400 5':00 feOD 3000 202600
L,oBOR FeRCE AND FCPULnIOfr,DUA .1..
Ut>EMFlCYHHT 11':50 ..000 ..eoo 3250 750 ~oo ~oo 26000
CIVIL ill'ueCR FCfiC£10S0Q~3 ..~oo ..2EOO 26700 EEOO 7100 3Lj(lO 2266(10
CIVIL !All DEPENDENTS 10"~OC 3 ..eoo ~2500 2116tlO EEOo 7700 3400 22!600
CIVJLUto PQF'ULATJCN 20~c.:OO 69700 05100 51300 13Z00 15.00 6800 1t57"00
HILITARY Et"PlOYMEt\l 1220t 7300 eoo ....00 eoo '00 eoo H51l0.......~
00MILITARYDEPENDENTS13EOt8200EOO5000900~ao ~oo 29GOO "MILITARY POPUlAlICN 25eoo 15500 1200 9 ..00 HOD eoo 1700 56100
TOTAL PCPUlATIO.,235700 85300 aE200 GE700 l ..4iOO lEaD 0500 513500
EFFECT!VE DEPENDEN CV RHICS (FCFULnICN/LABDR FORCEt EXCLUOING tlILITARY =1,li94iOO INCLUDING fl'JLITARY 2.01155
TABLE 15
IhS1I1UTE OF SOCIAL,ECCNCNIC AhD GOVERNNENl RESBRCH
UhIVERSIlV CF .L.S'.COLLEGE,U.S ••
•L •S • E H P LOVNEhl FOREC.Sl
FREF.~EC BV HU",H RESCU~CES FL.NhIhC HSnlUlE •senTLE,M.SHIhC1C.
ANNU.L .VER.GE FOR 1982
FCRECAST,f;iUN 30 ~Af;C~197,.
TCTIIL
.NC~OR .CE FliIRBA"KS SOU1HE.ST SCU1HCEH SOUTHWEST NOR1HMESl NORTHERN ALASKA
FEDERAL CCVERNHENl 9~00 3000 2000 1100 t;OD liOO 500 17800
STATE +lCCH GCVER~"EtoT H20C 9750 13550 7300 11350 2050 1050 53900
CCNSTRUCTICN CTCUU 8150 2250 2150 UlOO 150 !SOD 100 15100
MANUFACTURING 2150 350 ~~50 3650 550 100 100 11300
HINHG 750 200 50 ~OO 50 100 200 2500
COMHUN I CA lION ,U Ttl IllES 1850 800 ~50 ~OO 50 100 ~50 ~OOO
RETAIL TR.GOE 15500 ....00 "500 2500 E50 EOO 150 zeltOD
WHOLESALE TRADE 5050 900 500 550 TODD
F I~A"CE ,I ~SURE,REH ESl 4e5(:1100 Ciao ~50 100 50 75011
TRANSFCFiTHION SHe HOD 3300 1000 "50 E50 100 13300
SERVICE 18HC SEaD ~05 0 3000 850 lCDD 300 :!3DOD
Ne N-C AlEG CR IlEO 815C HOD 2l!50 3EOO ~00 :!oo 100 15~00
TOTAL ,",tRKERS 96200 31900 38900 2E2DO 6100 7000 3100 209511D
LABOR FORCE AND PCPUL"ID.D."
UfrlEHPLOYHENT 12250 It050 ~950 3350 150 liOO ~OO 26100
CIVILU.l,llBCR FeRCE 108&tCC 3EOOO ~3500 21.:500 6liOQ 7c;OO 3500 23ECOO
CIVILUN DEPENDEN1S 108300 3EOOO ~3800 2C1SDO EliDa 71100 3500 235900
CIVILIAh PCFULATICt.:216 eoo 72000 e770D 55100 13800 HeOD 70110 "72100
HILIlARV e"PLCY"'HT 12l:Dt 7300 EOO 'tltOO EOO \00 800 21:1500
I1ILITARY DEPENDENts 13600 8200 800 5000 900 ~DO 900 29800 ou
oc
HILIURV POPULATlCh 25EOC 15500 1200 c:ttOO 16 DO eco HOD H100
TOTAL flCPULATIOt.2ltCEOC 87500 8e800 6UOO 15~00 16700 HOD 52820C
EFFECTIVE OEPENOENC,Y RHICS lFOFULHICh/LUOR FORCE I EkCLUDINC !'ILIlARY •1.139900 INCLUDINC f'ILIT,I1RY 2.01120
TABLE 16
INSTITUTE OF SCCUL,EceNCMIC APIO GOVEANt1Ef\T RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY CF H~S'~COLLEGE,H_SfC_
A l ASK A EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
FREFAREt BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLUt.;HG nSTITUTE -SE,lIlTlE,W~S~HCTON
At<iNUAL AVERAGE FOR 1983
FORECAST,RUN 30 "'He ..19714
TOTAL
A"CI-ORJHiE FURS,oNKS 50U'I-Ie ,tIST SCUTHCHT SOUT~kEH NOIlTHHEST NCRT~ERN AUISIC,Il
FEDERAL GCVERN!'4ENl 'illite 3000 2000 1100 ':100 «;00 500 17eoe;
STATE +LeCAl GCVERNHEt<iT 1':1!SC 10250 14250 7700 2050 2200 1100 56600
CONSTRUCTlct.(leuu escc 2300 2250 11300 150 500 100 15700
H,6NUFAC1URING 2UC 350 4550 3750 EOO 100 100 11600
MINING 150 200 50 900 50 700 200 2900
COHHUNICA TION,UTIL IllES HOD 600 500 400 50 100 500 4000
RETAIL 1RllOE 1EHO "EOD -.750 HOD 700 ESC 150 Zc;7DO
Wt-OLESALE TR.4DE SeSO 900 500 550 7300
FINA"Cf,INSURE,REAL EST 505 C 1200 900 450 100 100 7eOD
TRANSPOHIITICN 6100 2000 3400 1050 500 HO 100 13800
SERVICE 1«;iCC 5':100 4:!OQ 31S0 «;00 1050 300 JIj 700
NON-CATEGORIZED 6250 1900 3000 3HO 400 300 100 15700
TCTAL WCRKERS 913lEOC 33200 ftOftOO 27200 EJOD 7HO 3200 217500
LABOR FORCE ANO PCPULATION DATA
UHI"FLCYMft,T 12?H It,SO 5150 3450 000 lE50 400 ,7700
CIVILUt.UBOR FC,"CE 11200 [37500 45£00 30HO 7100 8200 3000 245200
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MILITARY el"PLOYH"'l lHoe 7300 000 4400 000 400 000 USDD (»
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REGIONAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
ANCHORAGE
FIGURE 18
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FIGURE 19
REGIONAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
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FIGURE 20
REGIONAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
SOUTHEAST
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FIGURE 21
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FIGURE 23
REGIONAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
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YEAR
SECTION 3
OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
The industry employment forecasts generated by the statewide
economic base model and discussed in Section 1 were used
to estimate future employment in 440 occupational categories.
The basis of the occupational forecasts was the industry-
occupation employment mix reported in the 1970 census.The
Bureau of Labor Statistics has released a magnetic tape
file of census manpower tallies for each state.The data
on this tape is also referred to as the occupational employ-
ment statistics (OES)matrix.The Alaska tape file is
described with some detail in Section 3 of Volume II.Basi-
cally it gives statewide employment for 440 occupations in
227 industries by 12 workers categories,all reported in
the census of April,1970.At the current time,the
Employment Security Division,Alaska Department of Labor,
is using survey research techniques to update tha_matrix
to reflect changing patterns of occupational employment with-
in each industry.At the time this report was prepared,
the updated information was not available.Consequently,
the forecasts presented below were made under the implicit
assumption that the occupational distribution within e~ch
industry would remain constant over the forecast period.
The computational approach was to develop a matrix of indus-
try-occupation employment coefficients from the census data
97
I
and to apply these coefficients to employment forecasts
in the 12 industry categories available from the economic
base model.A detailed discussion of the methodology used
to generate the occupational forecasts is presented at the
close of Section 1 of Volume II.
Tables and figures supporting the discussion which follow
are included at the close of this section.
Professional,Technical and Kindred Workers
In 1973,there were an estimated 23,300 professional,
technical,and kindred workers employed in the state of
Alaska.This number is expected to increase by 20,900
additional workers to reach a 1983 level of 44,200 -an
increase of 90%.
Not all of the 124 occupations classified as professional,
technical,and kindred will grow at the same rate.The
employment of accountants is expected to increase by over
1,000 workers during the 11 year forecast period going from
a 1973 level of 1,300 workers to a 1983 level of 2,300
98
1.1
workers.Accountants are employed in a wide variety of
businesses and industries throughout all sectors of.Alaska's
economy and,consequently,their increased employment is
a general reflection of the overall increase in economic
activitiy expected within the state.While there will he
99
a slight spurt in the employment of accountants during the
construction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline,the general
increase in their employment is expected to be quite steady
throughout the forecast period.
Computer specialists and computer systems analysts will both
increase by over 100%during the forecast period.However,
the employment of these computer related professionals was
at a very low level (approximately 110 workers)in 1973 and
the rapid percentage increase still implies a total employ-
ment of such workers at under 250 jobs by 1983.
Engineers of all sorts will increase in employment between
1973 and 1983.The greatest gains are expected in the area
of civil engineers,increasing by over 700 workers,mechanical
engineers,increasing by over 110 workers,and engineers,nec.*
increasing by over 130 workers.Petroleum engineers are
expected to increase by an estimated 32%w~th almost all of
this increase occurring during the period 1973 through 1977,
inclusive.
There will be substantial increase in the employment of judges
and lawyers over the forecast period with these categories
~
increasing from approximately 560 workers in 1973 to approxi-
mately 1,000 workers in 1983.It is expected that there will
be between 140 and 150 additional judges required in the
*Not elsewhere classified.
100
Alaska (including Federal)judicial system and there will
be an additional employment of approximately 300 practicing
attorneys.Since most of the new judges who will be employed
by 1983 will be drawn from the ranks of practicing attorneys,
the total demand for practicing attorneys should increase by
almost 450 workers by the end of the forecast period.
The number of librarians employed in Alaska will more than
double over the 11 year period rising from an estimated 230
workers in 1973 to an estimated 490 workers in 1983 -an
increase of 260 librarians.At the present time,there are
a large number of persons acting as volunteer workers at
libraries in small communities throughout the state of
Alaska.Part of this growth in the employment of librarians
is expected to occur as local government finances are in-
creased and many of the persons currently spending time as
volunteer workers will become paid employees in local
government.
The number of persons employed in occupations classified
as·scientists will increase very moderately over the fore-
cast period.The greatest increase will occur among geolo-
gists where occupational employment levels are expected to
rise from a 1973 level of 270 to a 1983 level of approxi-
mately 450 -an increase of 173 workers.Professional,
101
technical,and kindred personnel classified as biological
scientists will also increase by approximately 200 workers
in the period rising from approximately 220 workers in 1973
to 420 workers in 1983.In percentage terms,however,the
increase in employment of natural and biological scientists
will be less than the overall increase in the professional
and technical category by about one-third.
The employment of physicians,pharmacists,dentists,and
other related health practioners will increase only moderately
during the forecast period -with the highest percentage
rate of increase occurring among pharmacists.The number
of pharmacists is expected to increase by approximately 80%.
However,this forecast is made under the assumption that
the level of medical service available in Alaska will be
the same in 1983 as it was in 1973.In 1973,the avail-
ability of medical care in the state was very low.A large
number of Alaskans regularly go outside of the state f~r
major medical care.In large part,this appears "to be
the result of the unwillingness of physicians to locate
in the state of Alaska and the fact that the University
of Alaska does not have a medical school.At the current
time Alaska is participating in the Washington -Alaska--
Montana -Idaho joint medical program for the trainin~of
physicians.If this program is successful and the supply
102
of physicians to Alaska increases,our forecast will un-
doubtedly be on the low side.In a real sense,this part
of the forecast is conditioned by a bottleneck in the
supply of medical personnel rather than a low level of
demand for medical service.
Also related to this shortage of health practioners in the
state of Alaska,the forecast indicates a rapid growth in
the employment of health technicians of various sorts through-
out the state.It appears that this rapid growth of health
technicians (most of the occupations will be increasing by
more than 100%)reflects a substition of technical and
paraprofessional personnel to compensate for the lack of
fully trained professional and technical workers in the
health sciences.The growth of registered nurses is
particularly dramatic,rising from a level of 1,200 persons
in 1973 to a level of 2,500 persons in 1983 -an increase
of 110%,or 1,300 additional workers.
The growth of population coupled with the expected increase
in state and local government are both reflected in the
increased employment of urban and regional planners,re-
creational workers,and social workers.All three of these
occupational categories are expected to more than double
with an estimated additional 40 planners being employed by
103
i
1983.Social workers will rise by an estimated 520 addi-
tional workers growing from the current occupational level
of 500 to a 1983 level of 1,020,while recreational workers
are expected to increase from their current employment of
approximately 100 workers to a 1983 level of 210 workers.
The employment of teachers of all types,and at all levels,
is expected to increase substantially in the state of
Alaska over the forecast period.At the level of college
and university teaching,the total increase is expected to
be in excess of 850 additional persons employed between
1973 and 1983.A substantial amount of this college and
university increase is expected to occur in the Anchorage
area where the growth of college and university education
will be furthered by the increasing concentration of persons
of all ages.This will be f4rther reinforced by a growing
tendency (noted throughout the United States)of persons over
the age of 30 to participate in college or university educa-
tion.However,much of this adult education wili-'occur in
the areas of supplementary training or other "non-degree
related"education.It is further expected that the Alaska
State Community College system will grow significantly over
the next decade following a pattern evidenced in other
states in the west during the last ten years.This s~ould
lead to some dispersion of college and university teaching,
104
although the greatest growth of the community college system
will probably occur in the Anchorage area.The University
of Alaska at College is expected to grow in total enrollment,
and consequently in faculty.However,it is not expected to
be one of the leaders in the growth of college and university
employment of professional and technical workers.
At the level of kindergarten through 12th grade education,
very rapid increases are expected in the area of pre-kinder-
garten,kindergarten,and elementary school employment.Be-
tween 1973 and 1983,employment of pro.fessional and technical
workers in these areas is expected to increase from an esti-
mated 1973 level of 4,100 workers to a 1983 level of 9,100
workers -an increase of 5,000 additional pre-kindergarten,
kindergarten,and elementary school professional and techni-
cal workers.This forecast is based upon the implicit assump~
tion that the ratio of pre-kindergarten,kindergarten,and
elementary school teachers per thousand students will remain
roughly the same throughout the forecast period.This assump-
tion implies that sufficient financing will be available to
local governments to allow for the expansion of their school
systems to reflect the growth of local populations.Perhaps
a more realistic assumption is that the level of service
(as measured by the ratio of teachers to students)will de-
cline during the rapid growth of population associated with
the construction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline.However,it
10S~
is expected that any reductions in the level of teaching
services in local areas will be more than compensated for
during the post-pipeline construction period when oil revenues
begin to flow and there is a realistic expectation of state
shared revenues going to local communities.Consequently,
the growth of employment in these occupations is expected
to be somewhat slow during the initial years of the fore-
cast period but is expected to grow rapidly during the latter
half of the 1970's and the beginning of the 1980's to reach
the forecasted levels.
Over the 11 year forecast period,the employment of secondary
school teachers is expected to climb from its 1973 level of
2,000 teachers to a 1983 level of 4,600 teachers,a growth of
approximately 2,600 additional workers.This increase of
almost 125%is expected to occur by the 1983 time period
but is expected to be affected by the same reasoning dis-
cussed in the paragraph above.
It is expected that there will be a rapid growth of such
engineering support occupations as draftsmen and surveyors
during the forecast period.Draftsmen are expected to
increase from a 1973 level of 390 workers to a 1983 level
~
of 760 (an increase of 94%)and surveyors are expected to
increase from a 1973 level of 310 workers to a 1983 level
106
of 640 workers (a growth of 104%).The growth of both of
these occupations will be exceedingly rapid during the
period 1973 through 1977,inclusive,and thereafter will
grow at a very moderate rate.However,the construction of
additional pipelines not taken account of in our forecast
would affect these occupations and would cause them to grow
more rapidly than the forecast discussed here.
Finally,the expected growth of activity in all forms of
air transportation services,and particularly the continued
growth of the Anchorage International Airport,will cause
the increased employment of airplane pilots,air traffic
controllers,flight engineers,and radio operators.The
number of employed airplane pilots is expected to grow
most rapidly showing an increase of approximately 600 additional
workers employed by 1983.This sector is expected to grow
particularly with respect to the use of air taxi services,
charter airline companies,and other related activity.Pipe-
line and pipeline related activity is expected to cause a
significant increase in the number of pilots employed in the
state of Alaska;and consequently an estimated 75%of the
total increase in airplane pilots is expected to occur during
the period 1973 through 1977,inclusive.Thereafter,the
growth of airpline pilot employment is expected to slow down
significantly growing at just a moderate rate during the
latter part of the forecast period.
10~
r
Managers and Administrators,Except Farm
The number of non-farm managers and administrators in the
state of Alaska is expected to grow approximately 75%during
the forecast period rising from a 1973 level of 14,300 workers
to a 1983 level of 25,000 workers.
A significant increase in the employment of bank officers,
bank managers,and financial managers is expected to occur
with this occupational category rising from approximately
600 workers in 1973 to approximately 1,220 workers in 1983,
inclusive.This increase reflects the expected rapid growth
in the state's finance,insurance,and real estate sector.
The growth of local government will also contribute
significantly to the overall increase in this occupational
category with the employment of local public administrators,
assessors,and officials in public administration,nee.,
increasing from a 1973 level of approximately 1,600 wo~kers
to a 1983 level of 2,800 -an increase of approximately
1,200 additional workers.Once again,this forecast is
predicated on the assumption that sufficient funds are
available to local government to allow for the increase in
service that would seem to be indicated by the growth of
4
population in cities and towns throughout the state of
Alaska.It may well be that the growth of this occupational
employment area will be less than the forecasted amount
108
during the period 1973 through 1977,inclusive,as a result
of financial limitations placed upon state and local govern-
ment.However,it is expected that the employment in this
occupational area will increase with sufficient rapidity
from the period 1978 through 1983,inclusive,to allow the
forecast to be achieved.
Reflecting the growth of teachers,at all levels,discussed
above,it is expected that the employment of elementary,
secondary,and college school administrators will increase
from the 1973 level of approximately 460 workers to a 1983
level of 1,030 workers -an increase of 570 additional
workers.The possible financial limitations imposed on
state and local government during the construction of the
pipeline may also cause a slow rate of growth in this
occupational category through 1973.After 1978,it is
expected that the availability of funds to local government,
including state shared revenue,will cause this category to
increase rapidly and achieve its forecasted level.
Finally,the expected rapid rate of increase in all forms of
retail trade throughout the state of Alaska will produce a
substantial increase in the number of managers and adminis-
trators in such areas of restaurant,cafeteria,and bar
management;and variety stores,department stores,and other
forms of retail trade.Overall,the number of retail trade
109
managers and administrators is expected to climb from a
1973 level of 900 workers to a 1983 level of 1200 workers -
an increase of 500 persons.This will be supplemented by
a further increase of almost 400 workers classified as pur-
chasing agents,retail buyers,etc.who are related to the
retail trade sector.
Sales Workers
The growth of total economic activity throughout Alaska's
economy over the next ten years is reflected in the increase
of approximately 5,900 additional sales workers (93%increase)
who are expected to be employed in Alaska between 1973 and
1983,inclusive.
Over half of the total increase in sales workers (55%)is
expected to be accounted for by the growth of retail sales
workers -an occupational category which employed approximately
3,300 workers in 1973 and which is expected to employ ~pproxi
mate!y 6,600 workers by 1983 -an increase of approximately
3,300 workers during the forecast period.
The growth of the finance,insurance and real estate industry
is also reflected in the growth of sales workers with insurance
.if
agents,brokers,and underwriters expected to increase from
a 1973 level of 370 workers to a 1983 level of approximately
110
750 workers - a growth of approximately 380 additional workers.
Also reflecting the growth of the same industry is the increase
in the number of real estate agents and brokers whose numbers
are expected to grow from a 1973 level to 440 workers to a
1983 level of 760 workers - a growth of 320 additional per-
sons employed.
Sales workers in the areas of services and construction are
expected to increase by approximately 360 workers (97%)
going from a 1973 level of 370 to a 1983 level of 730.
During the early part of the forecast period most of this
growth is expected to occur among sales workers in the area
of construction activity;"while this occupational category
is expected to increase most rapidly in the area of sales
workers connected with service activities in the latter part
of the forecast.
A substantial growth of approximately 690 additional workers
are expected to be employed as sales representatives among
wholesale trade firms in Alaska.The 1973 level was esti-
mated at 700 and the 1983 level is estimated at almost 1,400
workers.Most of this increase is expected to occur during
the first five years of the forecast period with growth being
somewhat moderated during the latter part of the 1970's and
the early 1980's.It should be remembered,again,that the
forecast has the implicit assumption that the state of
technology with respect to the occupational distrjbution of
lU
r
each of the industries in Alaska is constant.There is some
evidence that the growth of a wholesale trade infra-structure
will occur in Alaska as the level of economic activity increases.
If this occurs,the number of wholesale trade representatives
classified as sales workers will increase beyond that indicated
in the forecast.
Clerical and Kindred Workers
There were an estimated 21,600 clerical and kindred workers
in Alaska in 1973.By 1983 this number is expected to rise
to 39,500 workers -an increase of approximately 17,800
additional workers.This represents a growth of 82%in
the employment of clerical and kindred workers over the
forecast period.
The most rapid growth in clerical and kindred occupations
will occur in those jobs associated with office work.The
number of general secretaries in the state of Alaska is
expected to increase from a 1973 level of 4,300 workers to
a 1983 level of 8,300 workers -an increase of approximately
400 additional persons employed in this occupation.In
addition,another 340 persons are expected to be employed
as either legal or medical secretaries with almost three-
~
quarters of the total occurring in the employment of
legal secretaries.
112
An additional 2,200 workers are expected to be employed in
bookkeeping occupations with the total increasing from a
1973 level of 2,600 to a 1983 level of 4,800.The employ-
ment of cashiers,primarily cashiers who are related to
retail trade activity,is expected to increase substantially
from its 1973 level of 1,050 workers to a 1983 level of
2,100 workers - a growth of 1,050 additional workers employed.
The only other clerical and kindred occupation which is
expected to increase by a 1,000 or more workers over the
forecast period is that of typists where the number of persons
employed in 1973 (1,700 workers)is expected to rise by 1,200
additional persons to reach a 1983 level of 2,900.
Reflecting the growth of finance,insurance and real estate,
the number of bank tellers in Alaska is expected to increase
from an estimated 400 persons in 1983 to a forecasted 803
persons in 1983 -an increase of 432 workers or 110%.The
employment of counter clerks and accepting clerks employed in
eating and drinking places,is expected to increase by
500 workers Tising from its 1973 level of 410 to a 1983
level of 910 - a growth of 123%percent over the forecast
period.Also growing by approximately 500 workers over the
11 year forecast period is the occupational classification
of receptionists which grows from an estimated 450 workers
in 1973 to a forecasted 950 workers by 1983.
113
Because the employment of clerical and kindred workers occurs
throughout all sectors of the economy,these occupations are
expected to grow in a fairly smooth pattern throughout the
11 year forecast period.There will be some exceleration
in the growth of these workers during the early part of
the forecast period as a result of the excelerated economic
pace related to pipelireconstruction.However,the incre-
mental gains in occupational employment for virtually all
clerical workers will continue over the entire period 1973
through 1983,inclusive.
Craftsmen and Kindred Workers
In 1973 there were an estimated 18,400 craftsmen and kindred
workers employed in the state of Alaska.By 1983,the number
of persons employed in this occupational category i~expected
to rise to 31,300 -a growth of 12,900 workers or an increase
of 70%over the forecast period.Approximately two-thirds
of the total growth of occupational employment in the c~afts
men and kindred worker category is expected to occur during
the period 1973 through 1977,inclusive.This reflects the
expected major increase in the employment of craftsmen as
a result of excelerated construction activity related both
directly and indirectly to pipeline activity.From 1978
~
onward,employment in this occupational category is expected
to grow quite slowly with a growth of only 4,200 additional
persons employed over the six year period 1978 through 1983,
inclusive.
114
The craft and kindred occupations which are expected to
increase by 1,000 or more workers over the forecast period
include carpenters,construction foremen,and automotive
mechanics.The number of carpenters employed in 1973 was
approximately 2,100 and the number expected to be employed
in 1983 is approximately 3,700 - a growth of approximately
1,600 additional workers.Just under three-quarters of this
total increase (72%)will occur in the period 1973 through
1977,inclusive.From 1978 onward,the increased employ-
ment of carpenters is expected to proceed at a very moderate
pace increasing by only an additional 440 workers over the
six year forecast period 1978 through 1983,inclusive.
A similar pattern of rapidly increasing employment during the
early years of the forecast period is also experienced for
construction foremen.This occupation is expected to increase
from an estimated 1973 level of 2,230 workers to a 1983 level
of 3,660 workers -a growth of 1,430 workers.However,of
the total increase,66%or 943 additional workers,are expected
to be employed between 1973 and 1977,inclusive.From 1978
to 1983,inclusive,this occupation is only expected to in-
crease by an additional 480 workers.
This same pattern is true for the additional employment of
automotive mechanics.This o,Cuprtti 0 n is expected to increase
11
The employment of electricians is expected to rise by an
estimated 530 workers to a 1983 level of 1,310.Most of
this increase will occur during the early part of the fore-
cast period and is relateq to the growth of electricians
employed in the construction industry.However,the employ-
ment of maintenance electricians and electricians related
to the residential home construction industry is expected
to stay moderately strong even after the construction of
the Trans-Alaska pipeline is completed.
Because of the expected rapid growth of the air transportation
services industry,the number of aircraft craftsmen,particularly
aircraft and engine mechanics,is expected to rise by an
estimated 600 workers to reach a 1983 level of 1,400.Most
of these workers are expected to be employed by air taxi
services,fixed base operators,and other general aviation
related activities.However,there will be some increase
in the employment of craftsmen in the aircraft o~cupa{ional
category as a result of the expected growth of aircraft
activity among scheduled carriers within the state of
Alaska.
Rplated primnril,to the growch of e~ploy~ent and the~forma
tion of additional households throughout the state of
Alaska,it is expected that there will be an increase of
116
approximately 280 additional persons employed as radio and
television repairmen by 1983 -this occupational category
increasing from its estimated 1973 level of 3,700 to an
expected 1983 level of 7,400.
In a similar manner,the number of telephone installers
and repairmen is expected to increase by approximately 290
workers -growing from a 1973 level of 470 workers to a
1983 level of 760 workers.Most of this increase will be
related to the installation of telephones produced by the
expected growth in Alaska's population.
Finally,it is expected that an additional 240 stationary
engineers and 440 plumbers and pipefitters will be employed
in the state of Alaska over the forecast period.The growth
of employment in the stationary engineer category will bring
this occupational category to a level of 750 workers by 1983.
Most of the employment growth in this occupation will occur
in the early years of the forecast period with occupational
growth after 1978 being very slow.With respect to plumbers
and pipefitters,growth of employment in this occupation
will cause total employment to rise from its 1973 level of
780 workers to a 1983 level of 1,220 workers.While the
substantial part of this growth will be during the period
1973 through 1977,inclusive,there is expected that there
117
will be an ongoing demand for plumbers and pipefitters in
the state of Alaska as a result of increasing residential
home construction throughout the forecast.Consequently,
while this occupational category is expected to decline in
its growth rate after 1978,it will maintain a reasonably
strong demand throughout the forecast period.
Operatives,Except Transport Workers
The occupational employment of non-transportation operatives
is expected to grow from its 1973 level of approximately 7,400
workers to a 1983 level of approximately 12,000 -an increase
of 4,600 workers or 62%over the 11 year forecast period.
Reflecting the increase in the general level of consumer
and business services which will be demanded throughout
Alaska,the occupational employment of garage workers and
gas station attendents is expected to increase from its
estimated 1973 level of 290 workers to a 1983 level of~620
workers -an increase of 330 workers or 116%.The majority
of these workers will be employed in providing garage and
gas station services directly to consumers and this occupa-
tional category is expected to increase throughout the fore-
cast period roughly in proportion to the state's growth and
~
population.In a similar manner,the number of persons
employed in the occupational category laundry and dry
118
cleaning operators is expected to increase from its esti-
mated 1973 level of 430 workers to a forecasted 1983 level
of 820 workers -an increase of 390 workers or 92%.Similarly,
meat cutters,except for the employment of meat cutters in
the food processing industry,are expected to increase by
slightly more than 200 workers reaching a forecasted 1983
level of 440 persons.
The number of persons classified as welders and flame cutters
is expected to increase by approximately 290 persons over the
period 1973 to 1983,inclusive,to reach a level of 800
workers employed by 1983.This forecast excludes specialized
pipeline welders who will be brought into Alaska specifically
for the purpose of welding on the construction of the Trans-
Alaska pipeline.Nonetheless,this occupational category
grows most rapidly during the early part of the forecast.
With approximately two-thirds of the total increase being
registered during the period 1973 through 1977,inclusive.
An additional 250 operatives are expected to be employed
in the occupational classification sailors and deck hands
causing this classification to double over the forecast
period reaching a high of 500 persons by 1983.Part of
this increase will probably be related to the employment of
Alaska residents as sailors and deck hands aboard the tankers
which will be used to transport oil from Valdez to the
119
"Lower '48".However,a substantial part (at least half)
of this increase in employment is expected to occur among
persons who are employed in off-shore and intercoastal ship-
ping and through continued growth of the Alaska Marine High-
way System.
Transport Equipment Operative
The total number of persons employed in transport equipment
operative occupations is expected to increase by 3,000 workers
to reach a ,forecasted 1983 level of 6,730 persons.Slightly
over three-quarters of this total increase in the transport
equipment operative category will occur in three occupations.
The largest increase will occur among truck drivers who are
expected to increase their employment from an estimated 1973
level of 1,480 persons to a 1983 level of 2,700 persons -
an increase of 1,220 workers.Over two-thirds of this
increase will occur during the period 1963 through 1977,
inclusive,with the rate of growth of truck driver empley-
ment slowing down appreciably in the last six years of the
forecast period.However,it is expected that many of the
truck drivers who are employed in construction related
activities which are connected with the building of the
Trans-Alaska pipeline will also find ongoing employment as
.JI
a result of the general growth of trucking activity related
to increased population and increased wholesale trade
activity in the Alaska economy.
120
The other two major categories where occupational increases
will occur are in the employment of bus drivers and the
employment of delivery and route men.Bus drivers are
expected to increase from their estimated 1973 level of
440 workers to a 1983 level of 910 workers -an increase of
470 workers or a more than doubling of the occupational
work force.Underlying this forecast is the assumption that
with the growth of population in Alaska,there will be a
parallel growth of urban bus services such that the level
of bus service available to residents of Alaska will either
be at the level it was in 1970 or greater.
The growth of delivery and route men between 1973's level
of 730 workers to the 1983 forecasted level of 1,400 workers -
an increase of 670 workers or 92%-will occur primarily in
the Anchorage and Fairbanks area.This increase will relate
to the growth of the urbanized population and the expected
parallel increase in wholesaling activities.
Laborers and Farm Workers
The employment of non-farm laborers is expected to increase
from approximately 7,180 workers in 1973 to a level of 11,850
workers in 1983 -an increase of 4,670 workers or 65%.The
employment of farm workers,including farm owners and mana-
gers,is expected to increase from its estimated 1973 level
121
of 590 workers to a 1983 level of 730 workers -an increase
of 140 workers or 24%.
The greatest increase among laborers is expected to occur
among construction laborers and among stock handlers.Construc-
tion laborers are expected to increase from their estimated
1973 level of 830 workers to an estimated 1983 level of 1,640
workers -an increase of 820 persons.This increase does
not include construction laborers who will be employed during
the early part of the forecast period by Alyeska Pipeline
Service Company in construction of the Trans-Alaska pipeline.
It is expected that there will be an additional five to
six thousand construction laborers,of all classifications,
employed directly on the pipeline work.Consequently,as
pipeline employment phases out it is expected that there will
be a substantial surplus of per~ons trained as construction
laborers who will not find similar employment available
once the pipeline construction period is over.
The employment of persons in the stock handler occupation
is expected to grow from its 1973 level of 830 persons to
a 1983 level of 1,700 persons -an increase of 870.The
stock handlers will primarily be employed as stock boys
~in the retail and wholesale trade industries in the state.
Because these industries are expected to grow significantly
lL2
and be located primarily in the population dense areas of
the state,this form of labor is also expected to grow
throughout the forecast period and be primarily concentra-
ted in the more urbanized areas.
Service Workers
Service workers are expected to increase their employment
from a 1973 level of 15,400 persons to a forecasted 1983
level of 31,000 persons -an increase of 15,600 persons -
as a result of the overall growth of population and the
increase in economic activity between 1973 and 1983,inclu-
sive.In addition,it is expected that approximately 1,820
additional persons will be employed as private household
workers by 1983 -with this occupational category increasing
from its 1973 level of 1,300 persons to a 1983 level of 3,100
persons.
Among private household workers,approximately two-thirds
of the total increase will occur in the area of child care
workers employed within the household.With the overall
increase in economic activity and the increasing availability
of employment for skilled and trained persons throughout
the economy,it is expected that an increasing number of
women will enter the labor force and an increasing number
of households with young chi1dlcn will have two persons
123,
employed.This will cause the increased employment of per-
sons whose primary source of income is from private house-
hold child care.This occupation is expected to grow from
its estimated 1973 level of 910 persons to a forecasted
1983 level of 2,200 persons -an increase of 1,300 workers.
In the non-private household category,two of the most
rapidly growing occupations are those associated with
eating and drinking places.These occupations are part
of the retail trade category.The employment of cooks is
expected to increase from its 1973 level of 1,940 workers
to a 1983 level of 3,770 workers -an increase of 1,830
persons employed.At the same time,the number of waiters
is expected to increase from 1,480 workers to 3,150 workers
an increase of 1,660 persons.Additional occupations which
are affected by the same category of employment,but which
are expected to increase less rapidly,include bus boys
(increasing by approximately 100 workers to a level of 180),
bartenders (increasing by 640 workers to a level of 1,340),
dishwashers (increasing by 390 to a level of 720),and
food counter and fountain workers (increasing by 220 to
a level of 420).
Service workers in the delivery of health services are also
expected to grow in employment with the number of nurses aides,
orderlies,and attendants increasing from an estimated 1973
level of 540 persons to a 1983 level of 1,060 persons -an
increase of 520 persons.Practical nurses are expected to
find increased employment within Alaska with their numbers
growing from an estimated 1973 level of 240 to a 1983 level
of 460 -an increase of 220 workers.
Paralleling the growth of household child care workers,
institutional child care workers are expected to increase by
approximately 85%with an additional 460 persons employed
by 1983 to reach a level of 1,000 workers in the state of
Alaska.If there is passage of some of the legislation
currently pending in Congress for Federal support of child
care centers,this estimate could be on the conservative
side.
Reflecting the growth of population in the state,and the
need to extend various local services to this growing
population,the employment of both firemen and policemen
is expected to grow rapidly over the forecast period.The
employment of firemen is expected to grow from an estimated
1973 level of 520 workers to a 1983 level of 1,020 workers -
an increase of 500 workers or slightly less than a doubling
of this occupation.The number of policemen and detectives
employed is expected to more than double over the forecast
period going from a 1973 level of 700 workers to a 1983
level of 1,530 workers -an increase of 830 persons employed
or 119%.
124
lZ~
Finally,reflecting the growth of population and the increase
of availability of personal services in the Alaska economy,
the number of hairdressers and cosmologists is expected to
slightly more than doubl~growing from an estimated 1973
level of 490 persons to a 1983 level of 1,000 persons -an
increase of 510 persons employed.Most of this growth of
hairdressers and cosmologists is expected to occur in the
urbanized parts of the state with the most rapid growth being
evidenced in the Anchorage and Fairbanks metropolitan area.
TABLE 17
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT BY CATEGORY
OVER FORECAST PERIOD (1973-1983)
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983
1-Professional,Technical and Kindred 23300 31700 36700 39600 41000 44200
2.Managers and Administrators,Exc.Farm 14300 19400 21300 22900 23300 25000
3.Sales Workers 6400 8600 10200 11000 11400 12300
4.Clerical and Kindred Workers 21600 29400 33300 35900 36800 39500
5.Craftsman and Kindred Workers 18400 27200 27100 29700 29300 31300
6.Operatives,Exc.Transport 7400 9700 10300 11100 11300
12000
7.Transport Equipment Operatives 3700 5400 5800 6300 6300
6700
8.Laborers,Exc.Farm 7200 9700 10200 11000 11100 11800
9.Farm Owners,Mgrs.and Workers 590 620 660 680 700 730
10.Service Workers,Exc.Prvt.Household 15400 21600 25500 27700 28600 31000
11.Private Household Workers 1300 2100 2500 2800 2800 3100
50
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
FIGURE 25
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
PROFESSIONAL,TECHNICAL AND KINDRED
CATEGORY 1
.----.'Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
40
?
0
0
-£,
....z
w
~>-0...
a.20
~
w
73 75 77
YEAR
79
·...··\.1.
f-'
81 83 N...,
30
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
--
I-
Z
LLI
~
>-o...
CL
:E
LLI
20
10
FIGURE 26
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMF.~IT
MANAGERS AND ADMINISTRATORS,EXC,FARM
CATEGORY 2
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
73 75 7
YEAR
79 81
......
83 ~
15
...10
Z
Ul
~
>-o....
Do
:E
Ul
5
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
FIGURE 27
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
SALES WORKERS
CATEGORY 3
_-_,Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
73 75 77
YEAR
78 80 81
50
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
40
'Vi'oo
~
I-
Z
w 30~
~....
0-
~
III
20
FIGURE 28
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL E~PLOYMENT
CLERICAL AND KINDRED WORKERS
CATEGORY 4
Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
L..-----~3-----"":7=':5:------"""':7!::7~-----:7~9;;-·-----";;8~1------8~3 ~
YEAR
.....
~111
0
0,g...20
Zw
:E>-0
."
0.
:Ew
10
------_.._----
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
FIGURE 29
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
CRAFTSMAN AND KINDRED WORKERS
CATEGORY 5
.------..Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
73 75 77
YEAR
79 81
13 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
11
.....
~I/l
0
0
0
10
to-z FIGURE 30IoU
~>-ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT09-I
Q.OPERATIVES,EXC,TRANSPORT~
CATEGORY 6IoU
•Forecast Peri od8
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
7 SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
'------~3------7~5~-----....71-7------7o±·8~----.-.,.,8!------8+,:S
YEAR
8
7
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
6
u;
"50g FIGURE 31
I-ALASK4 OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENTzw::4 TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT OPERATIVES>-0 CATEGORY 7...
l1.::
w 3
2 -Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
73 75
YEAR
77 79 81
12
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
11
10
9 FIGURE 32-~1Il ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT0
0
~LABORERS)EXC.FARM
I-8
Z CATEGORY 8w
:E>-0 1...
0.
:Ew
6 -Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
'HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
5 SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
-------*3-----~8~-----::1::1-....----:7:!9::-----~8~1------k-83 ~
YEAR
.8
.7
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
.6
.5
FIGURE 33
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
FARM OWNERS,MGRS.AND WORKERS
CATEGORY 9
.-----.Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
3 5
YEAR
77 9 81
40
30
Vi
"0g
....20Z
1&1
~>-0...
I:l.
~.....
10
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
FIGURE 34
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
SERVICE WORKERS,EXC,PRVT,HOUSEHOLD
CATEGORY 10
.-----.Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
73 15
YEAR
19 81
4
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
3
........
~Vl
0
0
S
2...
Z
IoU
~>-0
,.Ia.
~
IoU
'.
FIGURE 35
ALASKA OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WORKERS
CATEGORY 11
.---.Forecast Period
Uncertainty Envelope
(95%Confidence)
HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE
SEATTLE,WASHINGTON MARCH,1974
73 75 77
YEAR
9 81
'~,~1-1
83,~
FC~ECAST CF OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA FOR 1~83
6.8
6.5
15.0
6.2
PERCENT
ERROR
.9
<;.8
3.6
:..4 6.4
2.1 10.3
1-;5---·-8.1-
87.7 5.~
20.0 5.5
14.7-----·.7.1
11.7-4.5
0.0 -0.0
5 C.l -
17 .2
2X STO
ERROR
6
20
19
83
207
381
263
739
361
132
1606
EMPLCY~Etn
---------------58---:1-;2---5.6-··
CHEGORY 1
OCCUPATION
3.CCMPUTER PROGRAMMERS
1.ACCOUNTAhTS
-2.ARCHITECTS
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
11.~ECHANICAL ENGINEERS
iZ ..HETALLURGICAL AND HATERIAlS ENG-·----.--.._----"..------
TABLE 18
138
F~EPARcG er HUHAN RESOURCES PLANNING I~STITUT£-SEATTLE,WAS~I~GTO~-3/12/74
18.FCRESTERS AND CONSERVATICNISTS
----------:----;=-;-:-;-;=------------4.COMPUTER SYSTEMS ANALYSTS 147------a.-1----S·.-S-·
~5.COMPUTER·SPECIALISTS,N.E.C.
6~AERONAUTICAL ANO ASTRONAUTICAL ENG
7-;--CtiE·H IUi-E-N-ci INEi(;fs
8.CIVIL ENGINEERS
9.ELECTRICAL AND·ELECTRONIC ENGINEERS
iO-;-·ti'OUSTRfAC-ENGINEERS··-····----------------------.-.2C7-
259
21.LAWYERS
22.LIBRARfA~-S;--------------------li36---27.8----5;7
-19.-HOME-MANAGEMENr"ADVISORS ----------------
20.JUDGES
·n~~TNfNG HGINtE'Rs
14.PETROLEUM ENGINEERS --.--,.--.----.~..----
1'.SALES ENGINEEPS
lS:-ENGINEERS-;N:t-;-C'.-------------------334------16-;-3-----4.9--
17.FARM MANAGEMENT ADVISORS
139
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
__________I'O_~~~~ST_OF__OCCl!.P_~_T_I_O~~_l:..E~P_L~Y~_E.!!T~AL_A~K_'~!.!!~_1~8~. _
PREPAREO BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHINGTON-3/12/7~
OCCUPATION EHPLOYHENT
2X STO
ER~OR
PERCENT
HRCR
23.A~CHITEC-TS AND CURA10RS·-·-----·------------·29 2.5 8.5
-2~.ACTUA~IES 0.0 -G.O
25.HATHEHATICIANS 2&1.8 &.8
27.AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS lSl 11.1 5.8
28.ATMOSFHERE ANO SPACE SCIE~TISTS
30.CHEMISTS
H.GEOLCGISTS
-3Z:-r ~R I ~CS-CfE Nfts·is------
~~7 2E.0--·--5.8
-1.1-------lD.D
--·0;0------O.G
11-33.PHYSICISTS ANO ASTRONOHERS
3~.LIFE ANO FHYSICAL SCIENTISTS.N.E~C.
-i5-;-CPERAnoKs--Alfo-sYSTE~-S-RESO"C-HERS----------69----,J--.3,----~-;7-
~&.PERSCNNEL AND LABOR RELATIONS -WORKE~S----··_------1310 -Sa,.8 ~.5
37.CHIROP~ACTORS
39.O?TO~ETRISTS
40.PHAR~ACISTS
~~--p~y5icfAKs;HEbICALANOOSTEOP-AiFiIc
~2.PCOIAT~ISTS
~3.VETERINARIANS
-';-4~·-HEAL THPifACfHToNERS"-,"'N-.E"'.C".------------~-..-----,,-,.----=-
140
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
__________f Oil~9_A.?_T__0.F._OC_CU-"_"--TJONA.L_E_~~L C_YWI1:_.!.1i_AL~~~A _£.C~_19_83 _
PREPAREO BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHINGTON-3/1E/74
CCCUPATICN EHPLCYHENT
2X STO
ERRCR
PERCH T
ERRCR
45.DIETITIANS
46.REGISTERED NURSES
5.910.618047.THERAPISTS
----.;s;--ci-iNlCALLABORATO"'R"Y"'T"E"C"H:;--------------318---28-;-3----8;-9-
49.DENTAL.HGIENISTS 27 :!.5 12.7
5.7
9.9
15.0.7
E.O
5.8
5
58
10~
5Q.HEALTH RECORD TECH
-§I:""RI10 tOL aGfc-TECH
52.THER~PY ASSISTANTS
53.HEALTH TECH N.E.C.
5~--;--CLERG 'Wff'-----------------------------------11-00
180 17.2-9.6
123 7.0-----5.7
-0---0;-0----[;.C-
59 ~.O 6.8
0.0 G.o
----72----4-.9----6.6
29 ~.2 7.E
1017 5E.8 5.6
59.SCCICLDGISTS
-6u."'URB ANftf'OREG-f aNAL-pi.:/;imERs
58.PSYCHOLCGISTS
El.SCCIAL SCIENTISTS,N.E.C.
55.RELIGICUS WORKERS,N.E.C.
56.ECONGYISTS
-5i-;-Ffl:ITfcALsc-fENnSTF<S~-------
E2.SCCIAL HORKERS
--E :i";-RECREA t IOJ<--WORKERS----------------------------211 -------14;7---7;0
6~.AGRICULTURE TEACHERS
65.ATM,EARTH,MARINE,SPACE TEACHERS
"6-r;;-i!fOL.CGY TEACHERS
21 12.7
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA.COLLEGE,ALASKA
______F~~Ec.A~~~_f_OCCUPA_!lO_N_~L__E~PL..2_!~.E_N..!__!!!.AL ASKA _.!"..!JR_1 g~~_
FREFAREO BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WAS~INGTON'3/12/7~
CCCUFH TCN EMPLOYMENT
2X S-TO
ERROR
PERCENT
HRCR
E7~CHEMISTRY TEACHERS 33 2.2.·
68.PHYSICS TEACHERS 36 6.8
E9.ENGINEERING TEACHERS
-7 Q-~--HAT HE MjI rfcs-t EA CHERS-
71.HEALTH SPECIALTIES TEACHERS
72.FSYCHOLOGY TEACHERS 0.0 -0.0
----31---------2;5-------7.'1
7.1 --
5.9
6.8
10.1 -
31
15----1-;9-,--12-;7-
--0;0-------0.0
16
172
20
--32 -
----------------------
eQ.ECUCATICN TEACHERS
75.HISTORY TEACHERS
76.-SOCICLCGY TEACHERS
81.ENGLIS~TEACHERS
74.ECONCMICS TEACHERS
77.SCCI~L SCIENCE TEACHERS,N.E.C.
7B.ART,DRAMA,ANO MUSIC TEACHERS-
--79~--C CAG fiE S-ANO-p;r;--TnCffERS
eJ.HOME ECONCMICS TEAC~ERS
84.LAW TEACHERS
1.1
c.o
6.8
-c.o
6.8
-0.0
tr;O----o;u-
0.0
c85.-THEOLOGY-rEACHEflS-----
e6.tRACE,INDUS,AND TECH.TEACHERS
e7.MISC TEACHERS,COLLEGE ANO UNIV 33 ~.2-
-8a.-TEAcHElis-;-cbITA-NouNTv;SOiiJNT-SPE/<C--------~45~-5·-.~5---6;3·_·
142
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
FO_R5CA_S.LQLCCC\J£,}TIO}!.~LEM~LCY"-ENJ__I..t!_~~SK.-A _ECR 1983
PREPAREC BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WAS~I~GTC~-3/12/74
CCCUPATION EMPLCY~ENT
2X STO
ERROR
PERCENT
ERRCR
8527
--es."iOULTECUCATION-TEA"CHRS --------------
9a.ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TEACHERS-532.5
5.9
6.022.7375
59191.PREKINCERGARTEN ANO KINO.TEACHERS
--9Z~ECONCARTsCHiJOL-TEACHERS---------------'-456"8---",2n~9---6-;3--
-93.TEACHERS,EX COLL AND UNIV,N.E.C.
94.AGRIC AND SIOLOG TECH,EX HEALTH
96.CRAFTSMEN
71
760
4.5
5.3
97.ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC ENG TECH 983
99.MEC~ANICAL ENGINEERING TECHINICIANS
loa.MATHEMATICAL TECHINICIANS
--lOI-;--SURVE-YORS
102.ENG ANO SCIENCE TECHNICIANS,N.E.C.
103.AIRPLANE PILOTS
427
1328
0.3
0.0
192.S
-0.0
-0.0
104;2---15.0 -
105.HBALMERS 15 1.9 12.7
--22-;3 ---------6 •4
106.FLIGHT ENGINEERS
107 ;--Iffliic-CPERATORS
108.TOOL FRCGRAHMERS,NUMERICAL CONTRCL
109.TECHNICIANS.N.E.C.
29
26
te7
1.7
11.3
17.0
-6.3
143
f
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
________F...QllE(;A_S}__~.F_O.c_Cy?JJ"IO~AL __~t:'I'_LCY~E~l_~_LISKA_FO~1~~~_
PREPARED BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLAN~ING_INSTITUTE ~SEATTLE,HAS~INGTON-3/12/74
___C-!!.I~.,-,R-,Y_-",1__P:....:.:.R=-0,-,FE=-S=-.~.!..9!!AL,TECHNICAL A~D KINDRED
CCCUP~T ICN EHPLOY~E~T
2X STO--PERCENT
ERROR ERRCR
-111.-ACTORS
112.ATHLETES ~N~-KINORED ~ORKERS
13
67
113.AUTHORS
114:-D-ANCERS
115.OESIG~ERS
116.EDITORS A~O REPORTERS
176
355
11.5 6.6
118.P~I~TERS AND SCULPTORS 174 1<."------7.1
11~.P"OTCGR~PHERS
12 (j";-p -R HE-~--ANii-pusCfcIT rw RITER-S
121.R~QIO ANO TELEVISIO~ANNOUNCERS
-------~_.-_.-------~_.~.-10~
--------------------73-------4-;4-----6.0 -
2207
44216TCTALFOREC~STED EMPLOYMENT,CATEGORY
122.HRITERS.~RTISTS,ANO ENTER,N.E.C.
--123-;-RESURCH--iloRkERS-~-NCTSPECIFIED-----------'3777---"-1"C"~-."8---"'5::-.~2
124.PROF.TECH,AND KINORED--ALLCCATEO
144
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_____'JC!flEcA_~,'!_.fF_,C.cCUPAEq~~L"g~FL,C!_'::ENJ,.!.~,.J.,L~,SKA .~OR.19a3
PREPAREO BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,HASHI~GTON-3/12/7.
eCCUFATION EMPLOYMENT
2X STO PERCENT
H.OR E.RCR
125.ASSESS,CONTROL,TREAS,Lec FUS ~CMI~
126.BANK CFFICERS ANO FI~ANCIAL ~ANAGERS 1218 112.0 '9.2
127.EUYERS ANO SHIPPERS,FARM PReOUCTS 0.0 -0.0
1<8.BUYERS,kHOLESALE ANC RETAIL TRAD;·E~-----------'2't5---22."''----'9.9-
6 ••
6.8
10.0
15.0
51.6
21.3
.9'
2a.2
9
315
279
771
13'+
613'
135.OFFICE MANAGERS,N.E.C.
136.CFFICERS,PILOTS,A~O PURSERS,SHIP
129.CREDIT ~E~
130:FYNERAL DIRECTORS
-iJi-;'t'EALii':·ADHfNI'STRATOiiS·',---------------·rtiO---'.:!~----10.5-
1~2.CONSTRUCT INSPECTORS,PUBLIC AOHI~
133.INSPECTORS;EX CON;PUB AOMIN
-1'3";-MANAGERS"AND'SUPfR;-'sutn ING-'"
330138.eFFICIALS LODGES,SOCIETIES,UNIO~S
-i3i-;-QFFtcfArS-AN(fToHtN~PUB-A'D,-'N-;E.C-.---------.,2:;f~nr.-3"'----6~'+
12.7
8.1
15.0
e.6
233
106
139.FCST~ASTERS AND RAIL SUPERINTENCENTS
-i'"jl~'P'URCHASING-AGENT'S AND BUYERS;'N-;-E~C.---------·932·'--'-....5~3---4.9·
1.1.RAILRCAO CONDUCTORS
1'+2.RESTAURANT,CAFETERIA,AND BAR MANAG
j,i;3-;-'SALES'i'j('NAG ANi!O'EfHEADS,-REl·TRADE------
144.SALES ~ANAGERS,EXCEPT RETAIL TRAOE
1.5.SCHOOL ACMINISTRATORS,COLLEGE
--i.6.SCHoor-AOHIN,ELEMENTARY-AND'SECC~D
853
58
75.0
3.5
8.8
6.1
145
r
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
~~__"F_OIl~_~~J:_.0i..-Q.C.(;l!.P.!TIa.NA~_E~PLOYMENT IN ALAS~A...!OR 19~_3 " _
FREPAREO BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLAN"~ING.INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,HAS ..n.GTC~·3/12/74
CAT~GORY 2
OCCUPATIO"
HANAGERS AND ADHINISTRATORS,EXC FARM
EHPLCYHENT
2X STD
ERRCR
PERCENT
E.RCR
"147.MANAGERS'AND ADHINISTRATCRS;""N~E.C~"
148.NANAG AND "ADNIN,EX FARH--ALLCCATED
TCTAL FORECASTED EHPLOYHENT,CATEGORY 2
"12482
967
24963 1088.4"4.10
146
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
FOREC~.?L9f_(lI:;CUF'E.I.Q.h~~_~M?LCYHE.N LJ.!l_3_~.!\~~~£9~1 ~.Il.3_~.
PREPAREO 8Y HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WAS~INGTON-3/1,/7~
OCCUPAlIOh EMPLCYMENT
2X STD
ERRCR
PERCHT
ERRCR
-----_.-1~9.ADVERTISIhG AGENTS AND SALESMEN
12 1.6 12.7
173 20.2 11.7
368 ~q.3---13;-4--
745 7~.6 10.0
61 7.7 12.5
150.AUCTIC~EERS
15~.HWSBOYS
153.IhSUR AG.BROKERS,LNOERSRITIERS
151.DEMCNSTRATORS
152.MUCK sri:RS Aj;iiJ-PfOOL ERS;---------------~
15~.STOCK ANO BONO SALESMEN
157.SALES REPRESENTATIVES,MANUFAC INC
158.SALES REP~-HMOLESAL~TRAOE
159.SALES CLERKS,RETAIL TRACE
lEO.SALESMEN,RETAIL TRAOE
-Y61~SACESt'EN-·6F-S E~V ICES·-ANO CONST~UC T
173 1<1.2 11.1
186 23.3 12.5
._--~~_._.----_.._--~--._-1392
_.
2,~.5------16.1
5287 6~~.5 16.0
1287 18<;.5 1~.7
162.SALES .CRKERS--ALLOCATEO
TOTAL FORECASTED EMPLOYMENT,CATEGORY -3
10 ~7
12276
10~.3
12~3.0
10.0
-10.1
147.
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
______-'-Ff~_ECAST OF_q_~Cl!.PATIO~A.!-_§.!P_LCY~E'!I_~N~.!,~~~_££~9~3.:.-_
P~EPAREO BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASPlhGTON-3/1217'
CAT EGCRY,--,'"---,C",L"E,,Ro..:I CAL ANO I<INO"-~",E,,,O,,--,W,-,C,-,R,-,K,-,E,-,R:.:S,--_
CCCUPATIC~
1&3.BANK TELLERS
IE'.BILLING CLERKS
EMPLOYMENT
828
330
2X ST~PERCENT
ER~CR HRCR
10.2
5.2
'771lE5.BCOKKEEPERS
-ff,"6-;-aSHIElis-----------------------2'0 88-~3e-;-g--11;'-
1&7.CLERICAL ASSISTANTS,SOCIAL WELFARE
1&8.CLERICAL SUPERVISORS,N.E.C.
1"9-;-COL LEeTe RS;'-8ILLANO-"ACCOUNT
170.CCUNTE~CLERKS,EXCEPT FOCO
o D.C -0.0
10.7
171.DISPATC~ERS AND STA~TERS,VEHICLE
17 2~--E ~U~ERH CRS··AND-INTERVIEWERS
173.ESTIMATCRS AND INVESTIGATCRS,N.E.C.
'313
927
...2e;1-----9.0
2 a.9---10-;-5"-
43."'--·'---".7
174.EXPEOITERS AND PROD CONTRCLLERS
175.-FILCCLERKS---------·
17&.INSURA~CE AOJ,EXAMINERS,HVEST
177.LIBRARY ATTENDANTS A~O ASSISTANTS
··-178~~HL ·CARRIE~S;·POST-··OFFICE·
714 32.1 4."6-
147 -1~.0;-----9.3
393 .22.8 _._--5.8
179.~AIL HANDLERS,EXCEPT POST CFFICE
18J.~ESSE~GERS AND CFFICE eoys
-'fa i-;-~ETEICREAOERS,-UT leI rtc:s
182.BCOKKEEPING AND eILLING MACHINE OP
298
186
----'Z
15'
·...7
10.2
--16183.CALCULATING HACHINE OPERATO~S
-Iel;';C-t-Mf'ufER-Aifli-PERfj:>HE-RATEaun-~E"TOl"---------Z"1°C1.------,lnQr,.""""'Jf---""/i-•..-
148
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_,EI)_R_ECA_S·L()F_I)CCUP~_T.IONA_,l,_IMPtC:r~NI._IN_At A~~~()1l19,83 _
PREPARED BY HUMAN RESOURCES PlANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTlE,HASHI~GTON-3/1Z17~
____~A!~GjlRY I,
CCCUPATION
185.DUPlICATING MACHINE OPERATORS
186:~EY FUNCH OPERATCRS
187.TABUlATING MACHINE OPERATORS
18S.CFFiCEI'Ai:HINEOFER~foRS,N.E.C.
189.PAYROll AND TIME~EEFING CLER~S
5.568
19a.FCSTAl CLERKS
--191~P';ioOFRE;lOERS'-----------------------2;;--~~---12.!l
192.REAL~STATE APPRAISERS
193.RECEPTIONISTS
--194~SECRETARIES,LEGAl
195.SECRETARIES,MEDICAl
9~3
-----~-----~57
155
73.5
12.1
4.8
5.720.6
30.4 .---
3~1.~
632
361
6341'196.SECRETARIES,N.E.C.
--rr7-;-sHpPINGjjNiJ-RE:CElvtKG--CCE:Ri<S--------------,326'~E_;g_S.2-
---HS;-STATIST fCAl CLERKS ------,------------.----.----
--19'30 STENCGI;AFHERS
-f~O;-STOCi(-C-CE-RKSIfNOSTOREKEEP ER S
2ij1.SCHOOl AIDES,EXCEPT SCHOOL HONITORS
202.TElEGRAPH HESSENGERS
Z03:-TELEGRAP-~I5PERATORS
204.TElEPHCNE OPERATORS
2~5.TIC~ET,STATION AND EXPRESS AGENTS'
~TYpisWs
608 3~.3 5.&
5 .7 15.0
--36 ------:l;5----.-9.1 .
1291 61.3 6.3
108&17E.7 1&.3
2914---fS-9-.2 5;-'--
149
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
CCCUP~TION EHPlonE~T
2X-STO-PERCENT
ERRCR ERRCR
-_._--------------2C7.WEIGWERS-
208.HISCEll~NEOUS ClERIC~L-HCRKERS-1211
17~0.639484TCTAlFOREC~STED EHPlOVHE~T,CATEGORY 4
2C9.NCT SPECIFIED CLERICAL HCRKERS ----_..2189 99~2 4.~
2~CITRTc~l ANO KINlfRE·(j--ACCCCJ\Tfo.------------2'3 63------r2KO-.z:6----5~.·1
4.4
150
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_________~FQJ~_E_c:~~LQLO~C_U£'!!_ION~~E~,O_.!~~t!!~_AI,AS~.£Q~_l"83 _
FREPAREC BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLA~hING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHINGTON-3/1~/74
__~__~C~AT~E~G~C~R"Y~~5~_C~R~A~F~T~S~H~,A~N~ANOKINDREO WORKERS
CCCUPATION EMFLCY~ENT
2X STD
ERROR
PERCENT
EilRCR
211.AUTOHCEILE ACCESSORIES INSTALLERS
C12~'BAKERS'
213.SLACKSMITHS
214.BCILER~AKERS
215.'eCOKBINDERS
--216~SRICKHASCNS AND STONEMASONS
-i1i-:-rj'j;ICK~S CN-i\ND-STONE HASOr<A'P-PRENTiceS-------------
489
34
121
8.0
-0.0
589 51.9 6.6
92 7.2 7.8
'3679 37,.6'---'''10.2''-
0.0 ,-,-0.0
128 ".7--7.5
218.9ULLOtZER OPERATCRS'
219.CABINETMAKERS'
221.CARPENTER APPRENTICES
'222.CARPET INSTALLERS
-Z23;-CEHENnNO-CONCIl'ETCF I-NI SFER~---------------93~'S-;O---16';5--
224.COMPOSITORS AND TYPESETTERS 122 1U .8
12.4
-0.0c.o
lE.2131
225.PRINTING TRADES APPREN,EX FRESSHEN
-22~-CRANEMEN-;OERRtC'K~Er;-;-ANiJ-HCIST-NEN'------------'81----27;Q----7.1 -
227.OECORATORS ANO HINDCW DRESSERS
228.DENTAL LABORATORY TECHNICIANS 10.1
--Z29;-ELECTRICIANS------'---,----'------'---------'-----13~7---'--124-.8-'----9.5 ,-
o--'-----.r~----o ;0-'
230.ELECTRICIAN APPRENTICES
231.ELECTRIC POWER LINEHEN ANa CABLE HEN
-2~Z-;-ECECT~CTyPERS-ANDSTEREdTYPER'S
43
383
7.9 18.2
151
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_________i.Q!lF;c:.~~~.~_O_G._CU!'._A!}.Il~_A':_~l'_L.!l_YMENTIN ALASKA FOR 1.9:.::...83=---_
F"EPAj;EG BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING.INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHIHTOK_-3/12/74
CCGUPATIC~EHPLCnEhT
2X STO
ERRCR
PERCHT
EN RC R
0.0 -C.O
lUG 153.7 8.0
92 7.1 7.7
3655----r9'.l.9 5;3-
0.0 -0.0
63 ~.1 8.0
4'0---'.7 11,;3-
2J8.FURNITURE AND WCOO FINISHERS
2J7.FORGEME~AND HAHMER~EN
233.E~GRAVERS.EXCEPT PHOTOENGRAVERS
234."CAD ~ACHINE OPERATORS,EX BULLDOZER
--23eJ~fliRRI'E~S'------------------------
235.FLOOR LAYERS.EXCEPT TILE SETTERS
-2T6~FCREMEN;-N-;E-;·C·.
11224~.GLAZIERS
241.~EAT TREATERS.ANNEALERS.AND TEMP
-~'i;'2~--hsp ;-Sc'ilLERS;-G-RjfoER'S~UMeER
14;1---"12.6
..··0.0----0.0
----10·1>-----nl.·z----9;S -
a.~--~._-8.210..
249
·-··-..-·----·--~-·-117
243.i~SPECTCRS,N.E.C.
244.JEWELERS AND WATCHMAKERS
-Zi;'5';-Jc-S -A~O'O fCSETT ERS-;-META'L---------------O'----O~.~O
246.LCCOHCTIVE ENGINEERS
17.01&247.LOCCHOTIVE FIREMEN'
24 i,;'HACHIi"IS TS --------------------335-----U-;y----5.0 -
24Q.~ACHI~E APPRENTICES -0.0
25J.AIR CC~OITIONING,HEATING,AND REFRIG
-251.""AIRCRPFT
252.AUTCMOBILE BODY REPAIRHEN
253.AUTC~CEILE MECHANICS
301 25.9'-8.6
-2367 ...169;3--7.2
.If
12 2.2 17;~
152
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
______.....!:F.J!O~Rf&~LO_f_qCCUPAT!O~AL ~~il1.t:t.E!'lL~~~~KA~£OR 1 9_83 ~._~_
p.EPA.eC BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHINGTC~-3/12/7~
CATEGC.Y 5 CRAFTSHAN AND KINORE~O~W~O~R~K~E~RS~_---~~--~~~~--~~-
CCCUPATION ~EHPLOYMENT
2X SID
ERROR
PE.CENT
ERROR
e.l 9.2
;!.G 17.8
102.6 ~.5
16.0 6~-t:-
0.0 -0.0
10.6 10.3
E6
17
245
2288
258.HOUSEHOLD APPL INSTALLERS AND HECH
255.DATA FROCESS!NG HACHINE REPAIRHEN
·256~FARH IHPLEHENT
257.HEAVY EQUIPHENT··HACMANICS~~INC~OIESEL
.26'1.OFFICE ",ACHINE _....-.--------.1;)3
261.~RilOfOC-A-NDTELEVIfioN'-----------------64"----~f_;,------6.,.-
~·2S9.LCOH FIXERS
2E2 ••AILROAO ANO CAR SHOP
263.ttECHA~IC,EXCEPT AUTO'~-'AFPRENTICES --.---..--------
99
27
-26..:-~iiIs~CEi.L.A-NEOUS-HE·CHAN~IC-S-ANO--R-EP~jfIRHEN------------270~
2E5.NCT SFECIFIED HACHANICS ·ANOREPAI.HEN~---·--------~~~·3E2
~·15.2-----5.&
26~~7-.rl--~10~3--
2E6.~ILLERS-GRAIN;-FLOUR;ANO FEEO
267.~ILLWRIGHTS
o.o·-·--~-0.0
-0.0
0.0
0.0
--0 ~--
~0
2E8.HOLOERS;-HETAL
2E9.HOLDER APPRENTICES
270-;-HDrI'CNi>IcTORCpiiOJECTIilKIST.-------------n---~;3---12;7--
--------------------1:2-----1.0---12;r--~
271.CPTIVIANS'rLENS GRINOERS,POLISHERS
272.FAINTERS.CONSTRUCTION AND HAI~,
-273~-pjHifTER-APPRENTICES-----
59
671
10."
55.6
17.E
8.3
27 ...PAPEP}ANGERS 17 .17.8
-c.o275.PATTERN AND HODEL HAKERS,EX PAPER
2~76-:-P~oiO-EN-G-RAVERS"'ANiiLnHilGRAPHE-RS·----------
0.0·
1 O-----r-."'>2-----12·;5 --
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_______'-..:FoRECAS.:r~_O~_CUPHIO~A_LEHPLCYHENT IN ALASKA FOR 198-=.3 _
PREPAREO ey HUHAN-RESoURCES PLANNIN~_INSTITUTE_~SEATTLE,WASHINGTON-3/12/7"
CATEGCRY 5 CRAFTSHAN AND KINDRED WORKERS
CCCUPATION EHPLOY~ENT
2X SlO
ERRCR
PERCENT -
ERROR
0.0 -0.0
278.FLASTEftERS··-----_.._-_..1 ..
-c.o0.0279.FLASTERER APPRENTICES
~PLlitiBEiisANOPIPCFITTERS-------------121~---r"2~---10;E-
--12;0-----7.0
<3t-----e.s 7.1-
0.0----·-Q.O
---0 .0-------·0.a
-------109------19-;0---17;"-·-
281.PLUHBER AND PIPE FITTER APPRENTICES
282.PDHER STATION OPERATORS
-.nf3~-oiiE SSHEI'AND ·pLA TCF RTNT E-RS-;-PRIN"T ING
-2e ...PRESS~E~APPRENTICES
2e5.ROLLERS A~D FINISHERS,HETAL
-t86-;--RCOF-ER S-JrfliOSLA TERS-------
287:SHEETHETAL WORKERS AND TINSMITHS
101
242
11."
10.3
17.2
".3
---0.0-----0.0-------_._----------------a288.SHEETMETAL APPRENTICES
Z89-;-S-ifIP[Ii:tERS,,-----------------------172---~1r.'"5-----'1,..,2.S-
290.SHOE REFAIRHEN
,,91.SIGN PAHTERS AND LETTERERS-------
30
0_-c .0---0.0
293.STONE CUTTERS AND STeNE CARVERS 0.0 -0.0
2£...STRUCTURAL HETAL CRAFTSHEN lS0 31.1
4.8
--2"S5:--TAILORS--------·--------------22---~3-.r----14~2
765
297.TELEPHCNE LINEHEN AND SPLICEHEN
--2 S-8-;-TII.E-·SETTERS
154 -6.7--4.3
.if
2.0--18;2--
154
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITV OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
________£..£8E(:A_~:L..QL09_CUPATlQNAl EMPLOYMENT IN AlAS~OR H~~J _
FREPAREO BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,HAS~INETON-J/1Z/7~
OCCUPH ION EMPlCYMENT
2X STD
ERROR
PERCENT
EfiROR
299.TOOL ANa OlE HAKEnRS;;------------------"---·O'-•..,O.----=--·O~lf-
300.TCOl AND DIE HAKER APPRENTICES
~01.UFHOLSTERERS
3C2.SPECIFIEO CRAFIAPPRENTic·ES,N.E.C.
303.NeT SPECIFIED APPRENTICES
a
99
7
e.7
-0.0
6.8
3t~.CRAFTS~EN AND KINDRED HORKERS,N.E.C~
305.FCR-H·ER ~E~BERSOF HEARt':EO-FCRCES,----------
165 10.9---··-··6.e--
30&.CRAFTS~EN AND KINOREO--ALLOCATED
TCTAl FORECASTED-EMPlOYMENT-,CATEGORY 5---·--~-----31261
251.9
17a3~8--·-
8.~
5.7
155
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
______________~F~C~R~ECAST OF OC~yPAIIONAL EMFLCY~ENT IN ALASKA FCR 1,8~3 ___
....PREPAREC BY !lI,lIjA.N RESOURC.E.S FLA.NNIN~.INSTI.lUTE ..-SEAlTLE,WASHnGTON-3/12174
CATEGORY £>OPERATIVES,ETC.TRANSPORT
OCCUPATION .EHPLOYMENT
2XSID
ERIiOR
PEIiCENT
HROR
55
74
8.7
9.1
$..9
15.2---
25
67
208
'185 .
·----------51~-;7'-:•.,,4c----11_;2-·
317.DRY WALL INSTALLERS AND LATHER~
309.ELASTEIiS AND POWDER~EN
310.ecttLIN~o-CANNIN'~OPERATIVES
'311.CHAIN.1i0D,AND AX,SURVEYING
312.CHECKEIiS,EXAM INSPEC-HANUFAC 128 14.9-11.6
~13.CLo'tIiIKi;TR6ri1fRSANO-P·RESSE'R·S,.---------------~2 8r----3·1r -.S"----'lr.r-
.'314.CUTTING CFERATIVES,N.E.C..,-,,---..'141 13;4-----9.4
315.DRESSMAKERS AND SEAMS,EX FACTORY
-3n--;-tnl'ILLERs;ElillTH
o------o~·o-----··...o.0 .-.
'''--0.11----C.O '
-;f:[9~FT[ERS_;r>Ol.lSHER·S;S·A'ijOE·Rs,eOFHR··"'S----------88----..7-.SO----,,8.8-
320.FURNACEHEN,SHELTER~EN,AND FOUIiERS-'----'----'"
16.8.'104.6--
q---~."---12.S--
11 ~.O .11.8
0.0 -0.0
819----80.5 9;8--
441 5E.a .12.1
154 1'.3....12.5
Jf
121 21.3 1'1';'0-
621
324.HEATEIiS,~ETAL
32'S.L AUNCR'li\NOORycIEAJ;;CPER",-'N-'."'E~."'C-.----------
326.~EAT CUTTERS,EX MANUFACTURING
._-._--..-..--_._.~
321.GARAGE HORKERS ANO GAS STATION ATTEN
-iZZ;-GRAO ER'S"A ND"S ORTERS-;-HANUF A'CTURING
323.FROaUCE GRADERS.EX FAC AND FARH
327.~EAT CUTTERS.HANUFACTURING
328~EAT-"j;'Rjip'P'ERS,RETAIL TRACE
156
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
___.__-....£.LR.ECAST OF Ol;!=CPATIONAL E~PLCYMENT IN ALASKA FCR 1,,9:..::8:..::3'-_
P.EPAREO BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHINGTON·3/12/7~
CAT EGO R-,Y_-"&_--".OP,--,,-E,,R=.AT'-".IV"'E"'S,_,'-'E=-T:..:C"'.:......:T'-'R"'A"'N"S-'P-"O"'R'-'T ._
CCCUPH IOh
J2X STD·PE.CEhT
ER.O_R___HRCR
7.2
6.8
12.5 --
e...
1.5
z...
531
35-
125
12
·-12
523
~33.OILERS AND GREASERS,EXCEPT AUTC
3~1.~INE CFERATIVES,N.E.C.
~32.~IXIhG CPERATIVES--------------------~·&r-----,5~.~1.---CT12~-
33&
-3-2-9-.-HET:-A:-L-,P"'L-,A"'T:-:E:-:Rc::S,---------------------,..---....O.'0.------·-..-0.0-:-
33~.~ILLINERS
33~.FACKERS,EX HEAT AND PRODUCE
-j~5-;-PAIN -T E~s-;-i1 ANUF tiCTU.Er-iii/TitLES
33&.FHOTCGRAPHIC PROCESS WORKERS
331.O.ILL FRESS OPERATIVES·
-.-0.-0--··-·-0.0--
--O;-O----·-O.G -.
o_._---.---_.-._----339.LAT~E ANC HILLING HACHINE OPERATIVES
·3 ..0.PRECISICh HACHINE OPERATIVES,N.E.C;--
3~PUNC-HA~-OSTAHPtNGPRt~fs--OPER-ATTIiES------~-----n,----,2r•."or---'12-;5-
3..2.·RIVETERS AND FASTENERS ··0.0·--'--G.1l
3..3.SAILORS AND DECK~ANCS
ai;;;;-SIiWYERS
3 ..5.SEWERS AhD STITCHERS 279
3 ..6.S~OE~AKIhG HACHINE CPERATIVES 0.0 -0.0
341:-SCLOE~EKS-----------
3..8.STATIChARY FIRE~EN
-0.00.03..9.C~RDING,LAPPING,AND ·COHBIhG OPER
35j.--"~·ITfERS;UFPERs;A"OTOPptRS.--------------·0-----Q-;~..;0;0-
I
I
157
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_______-:..F-=0c..;RECAsT OU~C.UPATI.~~~..I:..~FLCHENT IN__AL!.~J<.~.!,~R_!983::._
__._P~EPARED _~Y HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNINGINSTITU.TE ...-SEATTLE,WASHIHTO~-3/12174
____~C~A~T~E~G~C~R~Y_~&~~O:~P~E~R~A~T~I~VES,ETC.TRANSPORT
CCCUFATICN ...EMPLOnE~T
2X '~TD ····PERCENT
ER~CR EfiRCR
SPINNERS.TWISTERS,AND WINDER~0.0 -0.0
353.TEXTILE CPERATIVES,~.E.C.
--jS4.HELOE~S~~D-F[AH~CCTTERS
7 1.1 15.0
779 80.4 10.3
143---1-1-;2 7.a-
1174 1?1.L;7.£:
321 15;1-"4.7
358.MISCELLANEOUS OPE.ATIVES
355.WINDING CPERATIVES,~.E.C.
~59.NCT SPECIFIEO OFERATIVES
'-36 Ii'~-'-CFER~TIVES;-'E)CTRANSFOki-~A[{O'CAfEO --..-··--····--------16"67------O;z----,;·;O
35&.~ACHINE OPERATIVES,MISC SPEC
-'3~7;-'HACHfNiCCPERA"TIVES,'N'Or-SF'ECrfrEIi
TcTAL FORECASTEO EMPLOYMENT,CATEGORY -----~----'&12029
158
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNJVEHS/TV OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_____,F,CREc:,A.-§LCF_OCCUPAn_O,~,AL!H!'.h~.'f!..E!'lI,~~!_~~I<.A f,9~_1~e_!'C....._
pREFAREC 91 HUMAN RESCURCES FLA~NING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,HAShI~GTON-3/12/7~
TRANSPORT Ea~IPHENT OPERA~IVES
CCCUPATICN EHPLCYMENT
2X STD PE~CENT
ER~CR E~RCR
~eCAT~Eh AND CANALHEN-----------------~7"'"1----3.-.9 ;-;~..
~E2.BUS DRIVERS
363.CCNO ANC MOTORMEN,URBAN KAIL TRANSIT
91U
18
~1.;10.1
3.1'17.0
3E5.FCRK LIFT ANU (U~~IGiUR OPERATIVES
----'0'--'--0-;0---·0.0 -
3E6.~,OTORHE~;-HINE,FAC,LOG'CAMC,ECT.
·'3 EY.-i'~RKI~-Gtin EN DAN,S
13 10.0
3€8.~AILRCAC ERAKEMEN 87 e.2
3E9.RAILRCAO SWITCHHEN
37l)-~---1 AX ICAC"tRIVC:RS -A"NO CI-iAUfFERS--~-~-----------
~71.TRUCK CRIVERS
9
&53
269
86.3----13.2
207.0--'....7.7
5.2,29.1'--'559~72.TRANSFeRT EQUIP CPERATIVES--ALLCCATEO
TciALTiJifEOsTro-EMPCoy:1ENr.-cAn:GORy--7---------6734~",,--'--0;6-
159
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
________-'-"Fo-'!_;J!~~U.._OCCUPAJ:JOl<..A_L_~~E!_CY~ENT IN ~L_AS~~__".E_~_1_9~~_'___
PREPAREC BY HUHAN RESCURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WAS~INGTC~'3/12/7~
___---'C'-'A'--'T--"E"'G"'C-"-R_YL----'8"-~L~A~B~O~RE.E_"_R~S,ECT.FA'-'.RH"--_
OCCUPATION E~PLOY~ENT
PEIiCENT
EIiROR
116 5.6 4.8
86 4.8 5.6
16~5 221.C 13.4
1472-----141.8 9.6--
1203 10~.1 8.7
181 e.8 4.9
---373:-ANI~Al-CARETAKERS,EXCEPT-FAR~
~7~:-CARPENTER-HELPERS-
375.CONST LABORERS,EX CARPENTER HELP
--v~ISHEIii'E-Kj'NO-OYSTER~EN-----------
377.FREIG~T ANO HATEK!Al HAhClERS
378.GARBAGE COLLECTORS
-319---;-ITRofNE RS---;-GRoUtlOSKEEPERS ~-EjCF ARH
38G.-LONGSI'OREHEN AND STEVEDOIiES
~81:lUHBERHEh,RAFTSHEN,AND WOCGCHOPPERS
383.TEAHSTEIiS
...384.VEHICLE WASHERS AND EQUIP CLEANE~S ---,-----------.--
541
1061
-~6
-312 ----
11.2
9.6
------------~'88-----5'-'3---""7'.1-
386.HISCELLANEOUS LABORERS 398 27.~6.9
5.1
5.3861
-11849
~87.NOT SPECIFIES LAeORERS
Je 8.LABORERSc;-EXCEPT-FARH--ALLO-CATE"D--------------.iH2--------5 O-;-~4.3
TCTAL FoRECASTEO EHPLOYMENT,CATEGCRY 8
.II
160
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_________F;C_~ECA.:U~F_.OCCl!P~T.I!lNAl__gf!.~y_,,-EN_!...l~AS~A £O~!9_a.!._._
F~EPA"EC BY hu~AN RESOURCES FlANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTlE.WAS~INGTON·3/1~/7~
CATEGCliY 9
OCCUPATICN
FAR~C~.N";'~S,HGRS.AND WOliKERS
EMPlCYHENT
2X STO PEliCE~T
ERIiOR EliReR
389.FARHHS (OWNERS AND TENANTS)------------.lau--~1~8·.0---1-li~0·
390.FARM ~ANAGERS 22 2.2 10.0
3~1.FARMERS A~O fARM HANAGERS--ALLOCATEO
~-~~Ri<-FCliE~EN
69
6
3~3.FAR~LABCliERS,WAG~WORKERS
394.FAR~LABCRERS,UNFAIO FAHILY WORKERS
-395~FARi1-SEfi·iiICE -LA·B-ORERS-;-SELf~EHP[bYEO--------
396.FARM LABORERS AND FARM rOREHEh--ALLCC
TCTAL FORECASTEO·EHPLOYME~T,CATEGORY·
317
11
128
703
~3.4
1.1
12.8.
7.4
10.0
10.C
8.7
161
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
F:_C1.R~Gl\.?_I_J!F_Jl_C_C__UPATI.Q.!l__AI,EHPLOYHEt'!.!.....!!l_AL.A_~~_FO~__1g~3 _
P~EPARED BY HUNAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHINGTCN-3/12/7~
___CATEGCRY 1~SERVICE WORKERS,EXC.PRVT.HOUSEHOLD
CCCUP~TIc.__EMPLCYMENT
2X STO------PERCENT
ERHR HRCR
3S7.Cl-lAH8ERMAIOS AND HAlOS,EX-I-IOUSEHGLO---·--·--·-_o
•
3ga.CLEANERS ANO CHARWOMEN
1025
113~
11~.9 11.2
-1337-----164-;1---12.3 --
3g9.JANITO.S AND SEXTONS
-''-C--a--;-STRTENDER--S
531&262.1 ~.g
~e1.SUSBDYS
~02.CCOK,EXCEPT PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD
--~(;3 :-t--is~\ips t'E~S
-~o~.Fooe CCUNTERS ANO FCUNTAIN HoRKERS
~C5.WAITERS
179
3772 265.5
10.7
7.&
~07.CENTAL ASSISTANTS 229
---226----------lg ;5 -----a.6 ,
15 1.9 1"2~7-
o.ij,------~O.O---
10&5 62.&-----5.9
460 ------37;5 a.l-
105 15.7 ----1~.9
231 12 .2------5.3
·~71 15;5 ,;7-
4~~.S 10.2
29&-23 ;1----7.8
.If
47 16.8 10-;1
~13.AIRLINE STEHAROESSES
411.NLRSI.G AIDES,C.CERLIES,ANe ATTENe
410.LAY MIO~IVES
417.EARBHS
~18.8CARlj"I~G-A-NjiL(HlGTNGHOUSE-K-EEPERS-----------
40a.HEALTH AIDES,EXCEPT NURSING
--itt 9-;--HEALT"H--YRA I NEES
~1~.ATTENeANTS,RECREATION AND AMUSEMENT
"j5~-AtTENCAN-TS~-PERSliNACSERVICE;""""N."r.c.-
~1&.eAGGAGE PORTERS AND BELLHCPS
162
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_________---!F:.oC~R~~,~,~,LO.F_Qf:.!=.Yl'!!I.O.!'!'.UM~l,CYHE:i'iLINAlA~~...£Q':L1_9.8,-"3c__
PREPARED BY HUHAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASWINGTON-3/12/7~
OCCUPATION
~19.BCOTBlACKS
~20.C~ILO CARE HORKERS,EX HOUSE"OLO
~21.ElEVATCR OPERATORS
~22.HAIRDRESSERS·ANO-tOSH"ETDlCGii;i's
'~23.PERSC~AL SERVICE APPRENTICES
~2~.HOUSEKEEPERS,EX PRIVATE HOUSEHCLO
----,;-Z-5:-SCHGo'L-,;cNIrciRS·--
'~26.USHERS;RECREATIC~AND A~USEHENT
~27.HELFARE SERVICE AlOES
-"Zo-;-cTciSSING-GUARDSANO BRIOGE leNDERS
~29.FIREMEN,FIRE PROTECTION
~30.G~ARDS AND HATC~~EN
EMPLCYHENT
B3
,----,,--,-'0
101B
1035
2X STO
ERROR
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.2
4~.0
PERCENT
ERRCR
6.5
-c.O
-0.0
6.2
5.B'
~.7
432;FCLICEMENAND DETEC TIVES
16
1532
433.SHERIFFS AND BAILIFFS
~3~.SERVICfHclfKERS~X HousEHOCO.:.:ALCOt-------
TCTAL FORECASTED EMPLOYMENT,CATEGORY 10
3342
30961
0.0
178B.1
-0.0
5.8
163
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
.!.i-R.-Ef.~ST CF ~CUI'~_1J:O_~~I,_~_!__~YHEN~~!~~~J~~_1..~~_3=____
PREPARED BY HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING.INSTITUTE_.-SEATTLE.WAS~INGTO.N__3/1211'+
___-"C.::A-'-'TEGO IiY:..-"-l1"----'Pc.:R:..I~V'_'A"_T'_'E'___'H."O'_'U'oS'_'E"_~_"C"'L:=Dc...:;W-'C."R"'K-'=E"'R"'S _
CCCUPATIO~EMPLCYHENT
2X STO PEIiCENT
ERIiOR-EliRCR
2200 27S ...-·---12.7
"36.CCOKS,PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD 27 3~5-'-12.7
-----If-----O;O---.;C;O -
"37.~CUSEKEEPERS,PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD
-4~8.LAUI\'i:'RESS-ES;-PRIVATE 'HOUSEHOLD
13..17.1
12.7
12.721..
519..39.HAlOS AND SERVANTS,HOUSErOLO
....0.PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WCRKERS--ALLOCATEO
---niTALFORECHTEO EHPlOYHEii'r--;cnEGOlfY 11;---------3D94~9"-~"'.Q'----12;7-
164
TABLE 18 (Continued)
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL,ECONOMIC AND GOVERNMENT RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA,COLLEGE,ALASKA
_____--'f'9_R.~J:"~1._O_F__qC_CU!'_".!.!_O'~A.L EHP~_~':~~~..A.I0~~...£()~_198_~_
PREPAREO ey HUMAN RESOURCES PLANNING INSTITUTE -SEATTLE,WASHI~GTON'3/12/74
Oi;CUPATIO~EMPLOYMENT
2X SiO
ERRCR
PERCE~T
ERRCR
TOTAL FORECASTED EMPLOYMENT,ALL CATEGORIES 21"76"0-0--91;60.6
APPENDIX
SL\TE TnlE SERE~S YARIABLE LIST
""tr tr tr
" "
tr Jl "tr
Log Seasonal Switch for Quarter 1
"""tr tr 2
""tr "3
""tr tr tr 4
Not in use
Ratio of Total Population to
Civilian Labor Force
I.AIRT
2.BUSI
3.CO~lU
4.CONS
5.FEDL
6.FIRE
7.FOOD
8.GOVT
9.HOTL
10.LABF
II.LOCL
12.LUMB
13.lvIEDL
14.MFRG
15.MING
16.OMFG
17.OMIN
18.OSER
19.OTRN
20.PIRS
2I.PETR
22.RETL
23.SERV
24.STAT
25.TEMP
26.TRAD
27.TRAN
28.TRCD
29.UNCL
30.UNEM
3I.K<l.GE
32.WHOL
33.TIME
34.MILT
35.STLO-GP
36.STEX
37.Sl
38.S2
39.S3
40.S4
4I.LSI
42.LS2
43.LS3
44.LS4
45.BLANK
46.RATIO lA
Air Transportation
Business
COQmunications and Utilities
Construction
Federal
Finance,Insurance,Real Estate
Food Processing
Total Government
Hotel,Motels,Lodges
Total Civilian Labor Force
Local Government
Logging,Lumber and Pulp
Medical Services
Manufacturing
Mining
Other Manufacturing
Other t-lining
Other Services
Other Transportation
Personal Services
Petroleum Mining
Retail Trade
Services
State GovernQent
Total Employment
Trade
Transportation
Transportation,Communications
Utilities
Miscelleanous and Unclas~ified
Unemployed 0"
Non-agricultural Wage and Salary
Wholesale Trade
Quarterly Counter (1 in 1960 Qt.1)
Military Population
State and Local Gross Product (10 Mil.$)
State Expenditures (million dollars)
Seasonal Switch Function for Quarter 1
If fI "tr "2
3
4
STATE T DIE SERIES VARIABLE LIST (Continued)
166
47.Rl\TIO 4A Retia of Total Population to
Total Errcployment
48.RATIO lB Ratio of Civilian Population to
Civilian Labor Force
49.RATIO 4B Ratio of Civilian Population to
Total Employment
50.POPL lA Total Population Based on RATIO Ii\.
51.POPL 4A Total Population Based on RATIO 4i\.
52.POPL lB Civilian Population Based on
RATIO lB
53.POPL lB Civilian Population Based on R.UIO 4B
54.BLANK Not in Use
Note:Lagged values,\;hich use the value for the preceding
quarter,have abbreviations followed by -1,e.g.,
POPL-l,TEMP-I,UNEM-l.
AFORECAST OF INDUSTRIAL AND OCCUPATIONAL
EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA
PART II
THE STRUCTURE OF ALASKA'S LABOR ~ARKET
A TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF THE METHODOLOGY
USED TO DEVELOP THE RESULTS
169
SECTION 1
ECONOMIC BASE MODEL OF ALASKA
Theoretical Background
Our model of the Alaskan economy can be classified as a dis-
aggregated economic base model.The phrase economic base
model is widely used by researchers into regional and urban
problems.The purpose of a base model is to uncover the basic
or underlying elements of an area's economy in order to better
understand its functioning and to forecast its future trends.
E~sentially,the construction of an economic base model invol-
ves the following logic:
1.The level of output in a region is determined by its
level of aggregate demand.
2.A region's aggregate demand can be divided into two
sources:that which originates within th~region
and that which originated outside of it.
3.The final demand generated within a region stems from
the consumption needs of its inhabitants and is
functionally related to the region's total level of
economic activity.
4.the final demand generated outside a region is
unrelated to levels of,or changes in,the region's
economic activity.
S.A change in the level of a region's non-local Qemand
will cause a change in its output and income;and
this initially will cause consumption to change in
the same direction,but by a fraction of the change
in income.
170
6.Consequently,any change in a region's non-local (basic)
aggregate demand will produce a multiple change in its
level of income employment and output.
Explicitly,economic base studies treat an area's economy as
two sectors:the exogenous and the endogenous.The exogenous
sector consists of those final demand components which are
independent of short run changes in the area's level of economic
actiVity.It is usually defined to incude exports,government
purchases,and gross private investment.The endogenous sector
consists of those final demand components which are functionally
related to the area's level of output and income.
In most cases,this is defined as total consumer demand.The
total income generated in any region (or state)is equal to
the sum of the income generated by these two sectors,or
Y =Y +Yexen (1)
where Y represents total income,Yex exogenous income,and
Yen endogenous income.Since the components of exogenous
income are determined by factors not affected by short run'
fluctuations in an area's level of economic activity,it is
specified as a constant with respect to changes in Y,or
Yex (2)
The generation of endogenous income depends upon the level of
total consumer demand (by local residents)in the area.If
171
such demand were reduced to zero,endogenous income would
also be zero.Consequently,endogenous income is taken to be
a linear function of current consumption expenditures made by
local residents whose intercept is zero;or
Yen =hC (3)
where h represents the fraction of total consumption expendi-
tures made by an area's residents which results in the genera-
tion of local income.
A clearer picture of the workings of a "base"model can be
gained by comparing it with a standard macroeconomic model.
To do this,let Y represent the value of an area's output
and income (in current value terms)for any given period of
time;C the value of current consumption;I the value of gross
private local investment;G government purchases of goods
and services (at all levels of government);and F net foreign
investment.Then,
Y C +I +G+F (4)
Net foreign investment equals the difference between exports
(X)and imports (M),or
so that
F X M (5)
Y C +I +G +X - M
(4a)
172
From the definition of an area's exogenous income,we know
that
I +G +X
Combining (1)and (6)we can write
(7)
or
Y Yex +C
C
M
M
(8)
which states that endogenous income is equal to the value of
total consumer expenditures minus the value of imports by
consumers.Gross private local investment is assumed to
involve only locally produced goods and services requiring
no imported materials;this is also true for government
purchases.
Since,
Yen
we can define has,
C -M hc (8a)
M
h =1 -C
(9)
In effect,then,an economic base model conceptually divides
household consumption into categories:consumption of locally
produced goods (L)and consumption of imported goods (M);or
C L +M (10)
Dividing through by C gives
173
1
L M
C +C (lOa)
L
h=C
M
1 -C (lOb)
Consequently,h is equal to the ratio of households'consump-
tion of local goods over total household consumption.
The set of equations (1)through (3),inclusive,used to
describe the structure of an area's economic base is incom-
plete,however.The system requires one more equation to
complete it.The additional equation is the consumption
function.
Assuming an absolute income hypothesis,the fourth equation
becomes
C =a +bY (11)
where C and Yare defined as before,a is the function's
positive intercept,and b is its slope (both are assumed
to be constants.)The value of "a"is greater than OIW,and
the value of "b"ranges between zero and one.*
*It is in this form that economic base studies have tradi-
tionally treated the consumption function.
174
The system of equations (1)through (3)and (11)can be
combined to give the equilibrium condition for an area's economy;
which is equal to
Y
Y +baex
1 -bh
(12)
The terms in the numberator of equation (12)are autonomous;
and hence,a change in the level of government purchases,
gross private local investment,exports,or autonomous con-
sumption expenditures will produce a change in an area's
level of total income.The magnitude of the change in total
income produced by a change in any of the autonomous demand
sectors is obtainable by differentiating equation (12)with
respect to any of the autonomous terms (the results are the
same for all of them;or
dY
~x
I
1 -fifi
/:,Y ex (13a)
The increase in total income will be distributed between the
exogenous and the endogenous sectors in the following manner.
The change in exogenous income equals the value of the initial
change in autonomous spending (/:'Y ex )and the change in endog-
enous income equals the increase in household consumption
expenditures minus that part of household consumption which
grew for imports.The total change can be represented by
/:,Y +/:,Yex en (14)
A numerical example may give a clearer picture of the operation
of the income multiplier.Assume that each consumer spends
90%of his income on consumption expenditures.Then,
b =.9
175
And assume that,as is typical of a small regional economy,
only 50%of consumption expenditures are made locally.Then,
by (lOb),
h =.5
From (13a)the change in income due to change in Yex is
given by
Y 1
1 -.45
'/:'Yex
From (14)the change in Yen is seen to be O.82./:,Y ex
In the literature of economic base studies many names have
been used to describe this relationship.Commonly the ~atio
/:'Yen//:'Y ex is referred to as the "regional base multiplier".
In the example above the regional base multiplier has a vall:
of .82.
The same conceptual framework may be used in a model where
the unit of account is employment instead of income.~gain
exogenous expenditures,measured by employment in basic
industries,are assumed to determine the level of activity,
measured by employment,in non-basic jndustries.Although
176
the multiplier is conceptually the same,whether income or
employment is used to measure aggregate demand;numerically,
the results will differ due to differences in productivity
(and hence,wages)among workers in different industries.
Thus a person employed in a basic industry may spend only
45%of his income locally;but this,in an extreme case,may
be enough to employ a full workers in a non-basic industry.
Since the non-basic employee also spends 45%of his income
locally,the regional base multiplier will be somewhat greatel
than 1.0.
Total employment in the regional economy can be derived from
equation (12)where E's have been substituted for l's and
a =b ,and
1 -bh
total employment is given as
(15)
,or (16)
8 is the regional base multipler,and we can write an equa-
tion which gives employment in the non-basic,or endogenous,
sector as a linear function of employment in the basic or
exogenous sector:
If there are several exogenous inputs then,
(17)
177
+••
Een,n
where
n
rEen,i
i=l
Een.
Equation (17)presents the fully developed base model as
used in Alaska.Levels of employment in each endogenous
industry are determined by a constant a,the sets of coeffic-
ients,e,and the level of employment in each exogenous
industry.Given estimates of the a's and S's and forecasts
of each exogenous industry,the model can be used to derive
predictions of employment in each non-basic industry.Tpe
next sections describe the estimation of the a and·~terms
and presents the full Alaska base models.
The Statewide Model
The paucity of data for individual regions and the observed
interdependence of the regions prohibited the specification
of separate regional submodels.Therefore,a statewide
model was first specified and estimated.The statewide
model was then applied to each region and the differences
between model predictions and actual employment in regional
industries were reconciled by a set of regional allocation
matrices.The allocation process is described later.
The statewide model follows the conceptual framework des-
cribed in the preceding section.Basic and nonbasic indus-
tries were disaggregated to the extent data permitted.Like
all other base models,the present one makes several assump-
tions about the behavior of the economy.The assumptions
most crucially affecting its development are:
1.The level of demand generated in the economy"can be
supplied,i.e.,there will be a sufficieht expansion
in economic activity for all industries so that the
demand exerted by consumers will be satisfied by an
expansion on the supply side of the economy.
In this sense,our forecast of employment has an
178
179
f
underlying assumption that the quality of service*
will not be reduced as the demand for services
increases.While this appears to be a viable assump-
tion for the private economy,there are strong indi-
cations that changes will occur in the quality of ser-
vice,and the techniques of delivering service,in the
public sector.
2.The relationships found to exist in the past will
continue to exist in the future and differences from
past behavior are transitory and random.This is a
rather sweeping assumption,but a necessary one before
analysis can begin.The Alaska model is essentially
an impact model and not a growth model.An impact
model assumes that the basic structure of the economy,
including its inter-industry relationships and its
consumption function,remain constant.That is,~
an impact model deals in the short run and-assumes
that any new growth factors,such as the development
of new industrial complexes or the growth of entirely
new industries,will not appear during the forecast period.
Because the impact of the pipeline operation wi~
be small compared to the impact of its construction
and small compared to the state economy,it was not
*Where service is defined as economic activity generated per
unit of consumer demand.
180
felt that these assumptions were violated by known
plans of the pipeline owners.It also appears that
while construction will be on an unprecendentedly
massive scale,the impact will be qualitatively
similar to previous construction projects.While
a full growth analysis of Alaska's economy certainly
seems warranted,such an analysis lies beyond the
mission of this project and outside the scope of our
model as it has been developed.
For the purposes of an economic base analysis,basic industries
are defined as those whose demand is determined exogenously
to the local economy.Hence,changes in local demand will
not affect levels of employment in the basic industries.
Industries which sell most of their product outside the state
are clearly indicated as basic.In Alaska the most important
members of this category are the wood products,food process-
ing,other manufacturing,and mining industries.In addition,
those industries whose activity is determined over long planning
horizons,or by other factors not immediately tied to the level
of demand in the state economy,were treated as basic indus-
tries.In this category are federal government employment,
and the communications and public utilities industries.
181
The nonbasic industries are defined as those industries which
respond to endogenous demand.We defined the following as
nonbasic industries:construction,wholesale trade,retail
trade,finance,insurance,and real estate (FIRE),services,
transportation services,and state and local government and
non-categorized.Only transportation service is believed
to contain a significant basic component.Ideally,employees
serving international carriers stopping in Anchorage and Fair-
banks would be treated as basic employees,but that detail
was not available.
Table 1 summarizes the basic and nonbasic industries as
defined for the purposes of our model.Their Standard Indus-
trail Clarification code is indicated at the right.
182
TABLE 1
BASIC AND NON-BASIC INDUSTRIES
Basic Industries
Mining
Petroleum mInIng
Other mining
Construction (pipeline)*
Manufacturing
Food Products
Forest Products
Other Manufacturing
Communications and Utilities
(including public utilities)
Federal Government
Non-Basic Industries
Construction (Total)*
Transportation services
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
f-inance,Insurance,and Real Estate
Services
State and Local Government
Non-categorized,including agriculture
SIC Code
10 -14
13
10, 12,14
15 -17
19 -39
20
24 -26
48,49
91
15 -17
40 -47
50
52 -59
60 -69
70 -89
92 -93
01 -09,and other
*Constructlon has both a basic and a non-basic component.
Pipel inc construction is basic and determined exogenously.
All other construction is non-basic and determined within
the model.Total construction is the sum of both components.
183
The Econometric Analysis
Employment forecasts generated by the model are based on linear
equations which express employment in each nonbasic industry
as a function of certain basic industry employment variables,
total employment,total state population,and a set of dummy
variables which capture the unique effects of seasonal fluc-
tuations in the Alaska economy.In addition,selected non-
basic industry employment,computed as the dependent variable
in previous equations,become independent variables in the
equations of certain other non-basic industries.For each
non-basic industry an individual equation was specified
and estimated using ordinary least squares regression analysis.*
Each binary variable takes on a value of one in its appropriate
quarter;it is zero in the other three quarters.The complete
set of binary variables is shown in Table 2.Notice that in
this formulation the constant term performs as 54'In addi-
tion to the seasonal binary variables,a time vari-ablc \lIas
used in the equations for Transportation,Services,:ll1d Non-
Categorized.The time variable takes the value of I at the
.if*Regression analysis is a technique for finelin}:coefficients
for a linear equation which minimi ze the sunl II r t he ~"Pl;1 red
residuals (error terms.)
184
start of 1960 and increases by 1 in each quarter.It repre-
sents an autonomous time trend found in these industries.
TABLE 2
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
$1 1 0 0 0
$2 0 1 0 0
$3 0 0 1 0
The coefficients were estimated using ordinary least squares
regression.l Table 3 shows the estimated coeffic~ents,t-
statistics,and R2 statistic.An equation for unemployment
was also estimated as shown.
Numbers in parentheses after variable names (eg.POPL (-1))
indicate quarterly lags;(-1)indicates that the value of POPL
for the preceding quarter was used.Where no lag is indicated,
the current quarter value was used.
The numbers in parentheses beneath the regression coefficients
are t-statistics.The t-statistics are used to test whether
the regression coefficient differs significantly from O.
lThe time series regression programs developed by Prof.Potluri
Rao for use on the University of Washington's CDC 6400 computer
were of great value to us.
TABLE 3
NON-BASIC INDUSTRY EQUATIONS FROM STEP-WISE REGRESSION PROGRAM
UNEMPLOYMENT
R2·.95127 0=654.474
1961:1 ->1972:IV
lJF=41 DW=1.68
S~ATE &LOCAL GOVERNMENT
It =.987 0=542.8
1961:1 ...1972:IV
DF=42 DW=1.43
TRANSPORTATION
R2=.956 0=218.0
1961:1 f 1972:IV
DF=39 DW 1.42
RETAIL TRADE
R2=.979 0=385.2
1961:1 ->1972:IV
DF=4l DW=.95
SERVICES
R2=.995 0=203.9
1961:I ->1972:IV
DF=40 DW=1.I9
WHOLESALE TRADE
R2=.965 0=98.7
1961:1 ->1972:IV
DF=4'2 DW=1.32
-3895.8 +4283.1S1 +5934.8S 2 +1507.9S 3 +.0602134 TEMP
*(-3.91)(10.40)(4.13) (1.15) (4.15)
-21445.4 DELTA TEMP +.576633 UNEM-1
(-4.0820 )(5.4856)
-16496.3 +1544.7S1 +2758.6S 2 +1461.8S 3 +.092922 POPL-l
(-6.3438)(3.8830)(5.933)(7.0217)(8.7514)
;.18.2519 STEX
(7.0217)
+684.8 +237.4S.-16.4S +643.8S,+.162967 CONS
(1.5094)(1.259b (-.09h)(-1.5791)(2.6985)
+.713466 MINe:+.174706 MFRG +.256229 STLO 87.39 TIME
(9.5832) (1.9291) (5.8953)(-4.8491)
-12039.8 +1220.651 +1487.0S 2 -352.6S 3 +.362468MFRG.
(-12.5)(7.8) (3.5)(-.35)(2.25)
+.I80601MINC +n64513 POPL-I +15.1 TIME
(1.96)(11.1)
-1926.8 +783.3S I +482.2S 2 ...280.1S 3 -49.27 TIME +.64438 RHL
.(-4.85)(4.57)(5.73)(-1.71) (-3.64)(7.04)
+.16094 CONS +.34271 STLO
(3.179)(7.18)
-217.7 +134.6S 1 +61.7S2 +32.0S 3 +.143862 MINe:+.236687 rU~TL
(-3.26)(3.26) (1.51)(.78)(5.38)(26.6)
*Figures in ( )under the coefficients are T values
SUMMARY OF REGRESSION RESULTS (Continued)TABLE 3
CO~STRUCTION (TOTAL)
R2':.948 0=559.2
190:I -,1972:IV
DF=42 DW=1.16
FINANCE,INSURANCE,
REAL ESTATE
R2=.967 0=127.68
1961:I ->-1972:IV
DF=41 DW=.86
-14067.6 -1415.3S1 +1046.3S 2 +2719.0S 3 +.034313 POPL-1
(-6.91) (-5.77)(3.89)(10.4) (9.80)
+.59379 PEDL +PIPE
(4.20)
-3742.7 +423.881 +399.3S 2 -174.1S3 +.229743 COMU
(-11.60)(7.26) (2.54)(-.67)(4.12)
+.107405 MFRG +.016999 POPL-1
(2.00) (8.43)
NONCATEGORIZED
R2=.884 0=625.03
1961:I ->-1972:IV
DF=42 DW 0.60
Seasonal Switch Functions
+9717.0 -903.2S1 +649.1S2
(35.8)(-3.53)(2.54)
+56,81 TIME
(8.62)
+2538.9S 3 +2481.6 DUM-1965
(9.95) (7.53)
Sl 1 in first quarter,= 0 in all other quarters
8 2 =1 in second quarter,= 0 in all other quarters
8 3 = 1 in third quarter,= 0 in all other quarters
Special Functions
DUM-1965 = 1 in 1965,= 0 in all other years
DELTA TEMP (TEMP-TEMP-1)/TEMP-1,PIPE =PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION
Lagged Values
POPL-I,UNEM-1,etc.are lagged one quarter I-'
00
'J\
187·
r
The Population Indicator
Our analysis of the Alaskan economy led us to believe that
changes in population should have an effect on employment
levels in each nonbasic industry.This effect may be viewed
in two complementary ways.First,growth in population means
growth in market size and diversity.As markets become larger
there will be a tendency for firms to locate in Alaska which
had previously exported their goods and services from the
"lower 48"or abroad.Thus there is an autonomous shift in
the nonbasic sector associated with the general development
of the Alaskan economy.Second,population is a measure of
total spending units.One might expect that a population of
only single men would exhibit a different spending pattern
than a population made up of family units,retired people,
and so forth.Therefore,the population variable serves as a
demand indicator.
Our analysis showed that inclusion of a population variable
improved the R2 in all regression equations and in several
cases improved the t-statistics associated with other coeffi-
cients.Although we have reservations about its operation,
discussed below,we decided that its inclusion was justified
both statistically and in terms of the models operat~on.
The difficulty with population is that data are not available
at the same detail and level of accuracy as are employment '
data,·Only annual estimates are made for intercensal years;
188
and these estimates are not broken down by age or ethnic
group--characteristics that might significantly affect the
analysis.Therefore,we have constructed a population
indicator which is meant to serve in the place of a true
quarterly population figure.Several formulations were
attempted but the one discussed below was chosen as being
the best compromise.
The population variable is estimated within the model using
the models quarterly labor force forecast,a worker depen-
dency ratio,and an autonomous forecast of military personnel
and dependents in Alaska.*POPL,the population indicator
is given by the following equation:
POPL =D(LABF)+MILT
Where D is the workers dependency ratio and MILT are military
personnel and dependents on active duty in Alaska,and LABF
is the number of people in the labor force.
D was calculated by dividing the annual population estimate
by the actual annual labor force figure.Therefore,it
*Origlnally,ml1itary personnel were included as a "right
hand"variable in the regression equations but little
correlation was found.R.C.Haring found a decline in the
multiplier of federal military expenditures as early as
1966,and our results are in keeping with his.Both military
and non-military expenditure do affect non-basic employment
through the population variable.cf.Robert C.Haring,
"The Employment MUltiplier Impact of Defense Spending in
Alaska,"1966 Papers of the Regional Science Association,
Western Sector,pp130-l34.
represents an average dependency ratio for each year.D was
found to be declining over the period 1960-1969.From 1969-
1972 it has remained around 2.1.This indicates 1.1 depen-
dents for each member of the labor force.
D is the reciprocal of what is commonly called the labor force
participation rate.A participation rate measures the pro-
portion of the population in the labor force.In most economies
the participation rate exhibits some seasonal fluctuation in
addition to cyclical change associated with the level of out-
put in the economy.This is particularly true in Alaska
which experiences high summer employment levels.During periods
of peak employment people,such as students and housewives,
enter'the labor market and they subsequently drop out as
employment opporutnities decline in the winter.At the same
time an unknown number of people immigrate in search of work.
These people may be expected to have fewer dependents Jhan
the resident labor force.All of this means thaC if we could
calculate D for each quarter we would probably find that it
delinces in the summer and rises in the winter.There would
also be some variation from region to region.
Because D is an annual average figure,the population ~figure
generated by the equation above can be expected to overpre-
diet population in the high employment months and underpre-
diet correspondingly in the winter.The general movement
190
of the population indicator probably follows actual popula-
tion which rises in the summer and declines in the winter,but
no absolute significance can be attached to its quarterly
values.When averaged over the whole year,however,the in-
dicator produces a good estimate of population.
Finally it ·should be noted too that data on military personnel
and dependents are available only on an annual basis.The
number and distribution of the military population was assumed
to be constant for each quarter over a year.
Seasonal Effects in Alaska
The Alaskan economy shows strong seasonal fluctuations.The
precise pattern varies with each industry,but all show a de-
cline in the winter quarter (quarter I)and a strong advance
in the summer (quarter III).As the term seasonal suggests
this is a recurring phenomenon tied to the weather,the
length of the day,but perhaps even to custom and the expec-
tations of workers and businessmen in Alaska.
An average seasonal fluctuation was incorporated in our fore-
casts of the basic industries.For each industry the quarterly
deviation from the annual average was calculated and averaged
over the past five years.These rough seasonal coefficients
were then applied to the projected annual averages.These
forecasts,then,implicitly embody the assumption that the
relative magnitude of the seasonal fluctuation will remain
191
;
constant over time.
Seasonal variations in the nonbasic industries are simulated
through the use of the seasonal binary variables described
above.Because of the nature of the regression analysis,the
fluctuations in these industries had to be treated as additive
rather than multiplicative constants.Therefore,the nonbasic
forecasts assume that only the absolute magnitude of the
seasonal fluctuation will remain constant.As an industry
grows,this specification will result in smaller relative
fluctuations.
Over the short run the difference between an additive and a
multi~licative model will not be great,but the limitations
inherent in each should be kept in mind.It seems likely
that in Alaska the introduction of new techniques,particularly
in the basic sector,will result in smaller seasonal fluctua-.
tions.In this case the additive model is closer to the truth,
since it assumes in effect that marginal increases will have
no seasonal component.On the other hand the severe conditions
encountered in most of Alaska during the winter months will
continue to influence the behavior of businesses and consumers:
larger expenditures for fuel,decreased mobility,and~injury
or sickness due to cold are all examples of seasonal effects.
If the factors affect new as well as old parts of the economy,
then a multiplicative model,possibly showing declining seasonal
coefficients,is indicated.
192
Lagged Relationships
Lagged values of the independent variables were used in several
of the regression equations.Theoretically a lag would be
used whenever it is suspected that there is a lapse of time
between the onset of some activity and the effect stimulated
by it.In practice it is hard to know whether a lag of one
week or one month or one quarter is appropriate.Since the
model deals in units of quarters,it was decided to specify
all lags by quarters.The specification resulting in the
highest R2 statistic was used whenever the inclusion of a lag
also met a general test of reasonableness.
In the case of the population indicator the use of lagged
relationships was analytically necessary.Because the popula-
tion indicator is derived from the forecast of labor force
each quarter,it is not possible at the same time to use it
in equations for the constituent parts of the labor force.
Therefore a variety of lags for the population variable were
tried in each equation and the best fit was selected.In
most cases the lagged version produced a better fit with the
historical data than did the current version.
Noncategorized Employment
A large but fairly stable fraction of the Alaska labor force
is engaged in activities not covered by the state unemploy-
ment insurance laws.These people are mostly engaged in
fishing or agriculture,family businesses of one sort or
193
another,or are unpaid workers for charitable institutions.
Because little data is available on this portion of the
economy and because,with the exception of fishing,its impact
on the rest of the economy seems relatively minor,noncategorized
employment does not enter as an independent variable into
any of the equations.It does enter as part of total
employment.Because this is a residual category,defined,
in effect,by the Department of Labor,changes in the
coverage of the unemployment insurance system may effect
its size and characteristics.Note of this should be
made if more current data is introduced to the model in
the future.
194
Unemployment Equation
Unemployment is estimated in the same way as non-basic indus-
try employment,through a linear equation generated by regres-
sion analysis techniques.It was found that unemployment
is a significant function of both~otal employment (TEMP)
and the rate of increase in total employment (DELTA-TEMP).l
The rate of increase is expressed as a proportion of total
employment lagged one quarter,TEMP(-l):
DELTA-TEMP =(TEMP -TEMP(-l))/TEMP(-l).
In the equation the coefficient on TEMP is positive and the
coefficient on DELTA-TEMP is negative.Thus as the magnitude
of total employment grows,the TEMP component of unemploy-
ment grows also.However,during periods of rapid increase
in total employment (as is usual between spring and summer
quarter)the negative DELTA-TEMP component tends to decrease
unemployment.There is an opposite effect during rapid
decreases in total employment (as is usual between fall and
winter quarter).
The two effects can be summarized as long term and short term.
The long term effect is due to increasing employment oppor-
tunities inducing people previously not looking for work
lThe full equation:UNEM =-3895.8 +4283.151 +5934.85 2
+1507.953 +0.576633 UNEM(-l)+0.0602l4TEMP -21445.4
DELTA-TEMP.
195
(and thus not classified as unemployed)to enter the labor
market to seek employment.Here,growth in unemployment
parallels growth in total employment.The short term effect
is usually due to seasonal adjustments.Workers are drawn from the
ranks of the unemployed during periods of rapid increase in
total employment.Workers become unemployed during periods
of rapid decrease in total employment.The net effect is
that unemployment grows along with total employment but that
short seasonal spurts in total employment tend to temporarily
decrease the ranks of the unemployed.
Operation of the Model
The operation of the statewide model is outlined in Figure 2
The model is iterated for each quarter's forecast;four quar-
ters are summed to produce an annual average.The same model
is applied to each region,with constants scaled in propor-
tion to the region's basic industry employment and Fopu~ation.
The regional forecasts are discussed below in the section on
the regionalized model.
196
FIGURE 2
ALASKA STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT MODEL
H i Accumulate
Total
i Employment
For Period
I
I Forecast
Unemployment
I_,~ve N-B II
_ForecastsiFor I
LI~F-=e::::ed~b~a::.:c:.:'k~J
r
Data:~I Data:
Start-up tSiC Industr
Values Forecasts
rILaggedValue~_.__.
Seasonal Forecast:
Dummies,Non-Basic
Time Industry
i Employment
I
1 i
i
Re-Set
Lagged
Values
r----'--------,
Forecast I
Civilian
Labor
Force
1
[
I
fL __-1 "---'-----.
Start Next I :Forecast
Period,j-.----------------i Total
Increment I i Population
Time !L--.-_
!Data:
I·Military
Population
I,
(Data:Civilian
I Dependency
Ratio
I Table:
I Save All
!Forecasts--l
L~~
197
The Regional Allocation System
The allocation procedure is a sub-system of the main model.
The model generates forecasts of demand in each region,mea-
sured in terms of employment.During the allocation procedure
these demands -really employment forecasts -are redistributed
by a set of regional impact matrices containing coefficients
of transfer.A region supplying demand in another region is
referred to as an exporter;the demanding region is an importer.
These terms are used figuratively and do not indicate physical
relocation of workers.A worker is exported when he is employed
in one region to satisfy the demand arising in another.In
many cases the demand comes to him,as when people from the
hinterland come into urban centers to purchase goods and ser-
vices.
Basic industry employment is distributed autonomously by the
model user to each study region.The regional allocation pro-.
cedure is applied to each nonbasic industry.It.is basic
industry employment which determines the gross demand for
nonbasic employment in each region.The equations used to
determine demand in the regions are those applied to the State
as a whole.Hence,a fundamental assumption of the regionalized
model is that the demand functions in each region are jdenti-
cal.In other words an employee in the Northern region will
require the same amount and kinds of goods and services as an
employee in the Southeast,although the Northern employee may
have to go outside his region to satisfy his demand.
198
After nonbasic demand has been reallocated to supplying
regions,employment in each region is summed,unemployment
is estimated,and from this,a total labor force forecast.
results.Finally,the population variable in each region is
derived.The population variable is used in subsequent quar-
ters as an input to the regional demand forecast.
Regional Impact Matrices
At the heart of the regional allocation system are the regional
impact matrices.The results of our investigation of regional
trade patterns are incorporated in the matrices.In effect
each matrix states what proportion of a region's demand for a
particular industry's output can be supplied by that region
and what percentage will be supplied py each of the other re-
gions.These proportions are referred to as coefficients of
transfer.The coefficients for any region must sum to 1.0.
The matrices are 7 x 7 with one column and one row per region.
There are eight matrices for each year,one matrix for each
nonbasic industry.A generalized sample matrix is shown in
Figure 3.
Data on employment in each region over the period 1966-1972
was used as the basis of the regionalized model.Without
using the regiona1ization sub-system the model was used to
generate demand forecasts for each region for 1966 through
199
FIGURE 3
SAMPLE REGIONAL IMPACT MATRIX
(f)oc::
>-l::c:
tTl>-(f)
>-l
(f)oc::
>-l::c:n
tTl
Z
>-l
::<:l>-t"'
(f)
oc::
>-l::c:::;;;
tTl
(f)
>-l
zo
::<:l
>-l::c:
tTl
::<:l
Z
ANCHORAGE
FAIRBANKS
SOUTHEAST
SOUTHCENTRAL
SOUTHWEST
NORTHWEST
NORTHERN
1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0'.00 o.00
.13 .01 .86 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.oe
.46 .01 0.00 .53 0.00 0.00 D.oe
.39 .01 0.00 0.00 .60 0.00 o.oe
.24 .01 0.00 0.00 0.00 .75 o.oe
.66 .01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .33
SUPPLY
The elements on the principle diagonal are the proport~on of
self supply for each region.Thus Anchorage supplies 100%
of its own demand for this hypothetical industry,and Northern
supplies 33%of its own.Entries in the remaining cells of
each row are the proportion supplied by the region correspond-
ing to the particular column.Anchorage is shown as
.Jf
supplying 66%of Northern's demand,while Northern supplies
no other region but itself.
200
1972 using actual employment data.The model was run over
the historical period using as inputs actual basic industry
employment data and the true value of the population variable.
The resulting predictions of nonbasic employment were com-
pared with actual data in each industry.Regions having more
workers present than the model predicted were identified as
"surplus"regions while those with fewer than predicted were
identified as "deficit"regions.Totals were normalized so
that the sum of actual workers equalled the sum of forecasted
workers.These data became the basis for calculating regional
impact matrices.Details of the procedure used to calculate
the regional allocation matrices follow.
Limitations OR the Allocation System
There are many ways to approach the calculation of the
regional impact matrices.However most methods involve a
great deal of arbitrary judgment and do not lend themselves
to a consistent algorithm of the type needed in a computer-
ized model.This is not to say that it might not be desir-
able to generate the regional impact matrices by "hand"
ap.plying economic judgment at every step.However such a
"hand"generated method has been used in past regional
studies done by HRPI and was found to be tedious,time con-
suming and yielding results still subject to some question,
and thus,perhaps,not justifying the effort required.One
201
significant problem is that certain regions change from
being supplying to being demanding regions during the his-
torical period for some industries.It became quite difficult
to estimate when similar reversals would occur during the
forecast period,but it seemed quite probable that there would
be a few reversals and it would be wrong to ignore them.This
presented a difficult judgmental problem.
The approach used for this study was a compromise.It is
straight forward and easily adapted to a standard algorithm.
Workers are transferred from each region to every other in
proportion to the percent of the total state workers actually
in the receiving region for a given industry in each year of
the historical period.Trends of coefficients computed in
this manner were examined for each industry and found to be
small.Therefore the 1972 matrix was applied to the entire
forecast period.
The matrices are not interactive with the forecast model.
This means that changes in employment levels generated by the
model will not affect the matrix coefficients.This limita-
tion is in keeping with the treatment of this model as an
impact rather than a growth model.~
202
Since the matrices were derived from annual data they do not
embody seasonal changes in interregional trade patterns.
Consequently,quarterly employment estimates made using the
regionalized model contain a larger error than the annual
average forecasts.
The regional impact matrices can only claim to be an educated
guess at Alaskan trade patterns.They were constructed so as
to bring the model results into line with the historical data.
This was accomplished "perfectly"for the annual average data
in that the errors shown in the Historical Comparison Report
between actual and predicted data exactly matched the Total
State annual average errors,i.e.,the errors inherent in
the regression generated equations.This is shown in Tables
4 and 5:typical regional and total state Historical Compari-
son Reports based on the 1972 Regional Impact Matrix.Note
that the errors for the quarterly data were not as small as
for the annual average data.In fact,they remained un-
acceptablely large.However,this is to be expected since
the Regional Impact Matrices were based on annual rather
than quarterly data.Thus,the quarterly regional forecasts
are questionable and have not been included in the report.
A further ref·inement of this approach to determining the
regional impact matrices would be to apply some simple trend-
ing :to the historical trade patterns and thus compute one
matrix for each forecast year.This was considered,but not
undertaken at this time.
TABLEf
HISTURIC'L CPTA CC~PDRISON REFO~T 203
I~OUSTRV=RETAIL TRADE
___________.2__
YEAR erR PER ACTUAL P~OJECTEC
-1-cj6"r-,---------------~-------------------------~-----------------------------------------------
1 21 4D06 3~~2 -54 -1.35-------Z-Z2----4igc.-_----4~23--------129----------3 :C-g---
3 23 4301 4715 414 9.E2
4 24 454D 4E~8 118 -----2:e:C-
A 42EG 4412 152 3.55-----------
-------3-~5------8:19-
lCE 2.33
107 2.16
-93 -1.811:[li---------2-;-lf~
44~3 4ESE
4790 4807
5067 5373~---;5-~4;:-;!'''",----..,S-2£-~~---
4~99 S04~2 _
20~4.52
17 .35-
_3u3 5.9847-------.9~--
142 2.91
5148 _5113 -_:rs -.6-8-
545D 5480 3~.55~--i5Ec;-5------s-<;E-5..-----~2·911-------~5'-!P~-
6q26 5912 -114 -1.90
-,--'-----5-~e::l S-lO ::-2-----4 3 •n,--
1 37 5748 E12E 378 E.58
2 3 8 6311 6-~~3 2"2 --;3s"~-
'-'--.-_~3(3 §_~3_9 ~_e~L ~~g_~3_~_~5
4 4G 68g0 E475-415 -6.il3--
A 6397 6451 54 .84
_-1.'372-~------·-------------------------------
_1 45 69g3 EEE8 -325 -4.65----------2 4C-----n-E"5------------7tl7S-:2SQ -----------3-~9-4:--
3 47 7745 7722 -23 -.30
-------4--48----79S"7-----77 CE-----------;;,2'OT-----.:-3-.6-3-
A 7525 72'03 -232 -3.GS
TABLE 5
204
I~OUSTRY=RET~IL T~~DE
REGIC~=TOT~L AL~SK~
YEAR eTR PER %CF ACTlAL
_________J ~_:I,]5~_:J.8 Q!;f !S]-1---!-3._8_
2 22 88S2 8847 -5 ~.U6
__3~_23 9153 Sf,I!8 4~5 5.41
4 24 89~~9S~1 595 6.66
A 8717 9p28 311 3.2L
-.·C-3
.31
2.73
2.43
-7.18
.22
1.49
-1'-51
2.iZ-
--~-------
_____--:2.D5
2.50
2.33
77--------=-~-----.::.-94.76
1 25 8267 8861 594
2 26 93~2 S·C:·21.........
3 27 1ri052 1(1)83 31
4 28 9830 100S5 2E5
A 9370 9598 228
1 29 8938 9390 452
2 30 9852 9849 -3
3 31 111783 11004 221
4 32 lU58E B8S:i.2E5
A 10G4!)10273 234
1 33 9959 10107 148
2 34 10998 10e32 -H6
3 35 115es 11831 246
4 36 11577 UHE 1Oe:
A 11030 11114 84
1908
-LS£},_'_
1970
1971--------1---4y-----fie?3------T{~-6S-------------:.:5Te---4;2-7--
2 42 12841 121£5 ~64E -5.n3-----3 43----13S4-i 13252--------------391i--------------2~8fi--
4 44 13~45 13GES -276 -2.07
-------A fi925 12-47iJ------------·::l;-55----------~3__;5l--
1 45 125C5 121E8 -317 -2.53---------2---46---i:f6Dl--------T29~2----------------~6ES ----------;'4~92
3 47 14=2u 14115 -LtC5 -2.79
-----------4--48----T4-3~---i4i:e7 -3t-g---------2.1 s-
A 13755 13331 -42S -3.ne:
205
Calculating the Regional Allocation Matrices
1.Run the model for each region using actual data each
year for the independent variables.The annual
average predictions of nonbasic employment for each
region are considered to be the demand generated in
the region for each industry.
2.Normalize the predicted employment in each non-basic
industry so that the total state demand equals actual
employment in the industry.The actual employment in
each region is considered to be the supply available
in that region to satisfy demands arising within or
without the region.
3.Workers are transferred from each region to every
other region in proportion to the percent of total
state workers actually in the receiving region for a
specified industry.This procedure is repeated for
each non-basic industry.
4.Calculate the regional impact coefficients.The co-
efficients of transfer are calculated as the proportions
of a region's demand satisfied by each of the~seven
regions,including itself.
5.The above procedure was repeated for each year of th~
historical period (1966-72).Regional trends were
examined and found to be small.Therefore,the 1972
matrix was applied to the entire forecast (1973-83).
Table 6 shows a typical table produced by the computer
program generating the Regional Impact Matrices.
206
HATRIX OF rPANSFERS ~NO TRAN~Ft~-COEFFICI~NTS FOP L97~INOUSTRY-RETAIL TRADE MODE-1
ACTU~l 7,2J;2137
...'MECAS,o.D 5699 20Ql
___5JJEelJJ'L_.....e...
.OEF Ie IT 1 ~:'!5 46
2194 ..
2544...
o .
1210
2270
314
522
o
3.99
75
231
.0
13755
...1.3755.
..1872 .._....
200
.0880
4%224.1595'··__·········.08SG 55 14;0218 ·-----;00 5S·-----1;-00 u6-·-----
12
.0 C55 1.0000
3
,I}055 1.00"0
2
._-;0 055 1.0000
1
.0055 1.000 C
.._-_.'._--
75 13755 "'''t
1.0000
1.00ilO
31
•a0 55
11
.0055
45
•0 :!18
124
•0 218
49
.0218
9
.0218
11
.0218
5
.0216
9
"lJ228
130
.0 '!26
52
.0228
12
.0228
5
.0228
58
.0228
~5
.0850
~!O
.0850
501
.0880
184
.0880
334
.1tjQr,
909
.~59tj
•37
.159;:;
RF.G.ION ..r~()~:_
ANCHO~J\tJ[311"B~6
.5471 .1554
.._------_...
n loq AN~S 114 ',1?5
.5Hl .1 !3tJ4,
SOI!I.HF A~T l~qt ..-3Q5
.5\71 .1554
~nUTHr;r.NT 1242 353
S~71 .1r:S4
sour H'.'S T 2f\lj 81
.5~71 .1r.;SIt
________N_QR_T.H'P'ST.?1~C",-
•5~71 .1554.
NORTH::''''10 12~:1&
.547,1 •t 5SI.
~._-_._-_.._-.----
Toti-i -TRA~Jf)FC::;)S 75~5 '!137
208
Sources of Data
Employment rather than income was chosen as the unit of
account because of the ~vailability of accurate regional
accounts of the same sort that are maintained for the United
States.Although data on wages paid in industries covered
by Unemployment Insurance legislation are available,estimates
of non-wage income,proprietor's and rental income,dividend
income and other "unearned"income are unreliable or unavail-
able.
The main source for the employment data was the Employment
Security Division of the State Department of Labor.The
Employment Security Department collects monthly data on the
number of establishments,number of employees,total payroll
by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)code and prepares
estimates of unemployment and total labor force.
The Employment Security Division collects employment data
by SIC categories from the quarterly reports of the employers
subject to the State unemployment insurance law and quarterly
reports of Federal agencies made in connection with the State
administered program for unemployed Federal workers.These
data are published in the "Statistical Quarterly"series of
the Employment Security Division.In this series data are
presented for non-agricultural wage and salary employees,
but employment in certain segments of activities,such as
self-employed persons,unpaid family help,domestics,and aost
209
persons engaged in agriculture,forestry and fisheries sec-
tors of the economy are excluded.The total civilian labor
force and unemployment is estimated by the Employment Security
Division and is published yearly (by months)in "Alaska Work-
force Estimates by Industry and Area".
The state level employment data in the "Statistical Quarterly"
is presented for the most part at the two digit SIC level.
In some SIC divisions,employment at the three digit levels
are also available,depending upon the number of establish-
ments occurring at each SIC level.The problem here is that
the Federal disclosure laws prohibit publishing of employment
data if from such publication it would be possible to identify
a particular employer unit.
There are 24 LMSA's in Alaska,and in the 1960-72 quarterly
series they where coterminus with the Alaska election districts.
The employment data,for more populated LMSA's such as Anchorage,
Fairbanks and Juneau,can be obtained at the two-digit level
for most of the SIC divisions.However,in a number of less
populated LMSA's (e.g.Kuskowim,Upper Yukon,etc.)due to
the disclosure rules,employment data is not available even
at the one digit level.
To circumvent the problems of disclosure rules,the Consul-
tants requested the State Department of Labor to provide
employment data at the SIC two-digit level by five Alaska
210
Manpower Outlook (AMO)regions.This was completed for the years 196(
through 1972.An additional two regions were created for the
MAP study by extracting the data for the Anchorage and Fair-
banks LMSA's from their respective AMO regions.Employment
for these two additional regions was compiled from Alaska
Department of Labor's Statistical Quarterly and Industry and
Area Workforce Estimates.
Given the employment data by AMO analysis areas,the "Statis-
tical Quarterly"series,"Alaska Workforce Estimates by Indus-
try and Area",and such specific studies as the State Depart-
ment of Economic Development's "Alaska Industrial Surveys",
the consultants were able to create an estimate of employment
for the 1966 through 1972 period by MAP Study Regions.
211
Other Sources of Data
Other pertinent publications found useful in the building
of econometric model and regiona1ization of data include:
1.University of Alaska,Institute of Social,Economic
and Government Research "Review of Business and
Economic Conditions"monthly.
2.University of Alaska,Institute of Social,Economic
and Government Research ISEGR Reports.Occasional.
3.State of Alaska,Department of Education and Labor.
Alaska's Manpower Outlook -1970's,1972.
4.Tuck,Bradford H.An Aggregate Income Model of A
Semi-Autonomous Alaskan Economy prepared for the
Federal Field Committee for Development Planning
in Alaska,1967.
5.Overall Economic Development Programs.Prepared by
various towns and cities for Economic Development
Administration,various dates.
6.Federal Field Committee for Development Planning
in Alaska.Community Inventory,1971.
7.State of Alaska Department of Economic Development.
Standard Industrial Surveys,1970 and 1972.~
8.Alaska State Housing Authority.Comprehensive Plans
for various communities,various dates.
9.Alyeska Pipeline Service Company.Summary:Project
Description of the Trans Alaska Pipe11ne System,1971.
212
The Occupational Model
The industry employment forecasts generated by the statewide
economic base model were used to estimate future employment
in 440 occupational categories.The basis of the occupational
forecasts was the industry-occupation employment mix reported
in the 1970 census.The Bureau of Labor Statistics has
released a magnetic tape file of census manpower tallies for
each state.The Alaska tape file is described with some
detail in Section III,Programming Notes.Basically it gives
statewide employment for 440 occupations in 227 industries
by 12 workers categories,all reported in the census of April,
1970.
The computational approach was to develop a matrix of indus-
try-occupation employment coefficients from the census data
and to apply these coefficients to employment forecasts in
the 12 industry categories available from the economic base
model.To make the coefficient matrix compatible with the
industry forecasts the census data was compressed from the
original 440 x 12 x 227 breakout,to a new 440 x 12 employ-
ment matrix.Note the 12 in the original matrix refers to
workers categories (e.g.,male,female,unpaid,etc.)while
the 12 in the compressed matrix refers to industry categories
of the economic base model.This process was a simple
aggregation done on a digital computer by Prcgram SQUEEZE.
The correspondence between the 227 census industry categories
213
f
and the 12 industry categories of the base model for the 12
matrix segments is shown in Table 7 A list of the 440
occupational categories and the 227 industry categories are
attached at the end of this report.
From the compressed 440 x 12 employment matrix,E ..(i=l,12;1J
j=l,440),a matrix of coefficients was developed.Each
coefficient,Cij ,represents the ratio of employment in a
given industry for a given occupation to the total occupational
employment in the given industry,Ei'where:
E·1 EE·".1J
J
j=l,440.
Thus,Cij represents the proportion of employMent in
the i-th industry devoted to the j-th occupation:
Total employment in each occupation was estimated by summing
the occupational contribution of each of the 12 industry
categories.Thus,the industry forecasts,Ii,for a given
year were multiplied by industry-occupation coefficients,Cij ,
and the resulting employment summed for 12 categories.The
result is an estimate of employment in the j-th occupation,
.J<
F j >for that same year:
EC·.I.,i 1J 1
i=l,12.
214
TABLE 7
MATRIX SEGMENT-INnIJSTRY cm~RESPf)l\JT)ENCE
Correspondence of data entries on the state manpower tallies
(census)tape and the l2-industry categories of the economic
base model.
The following correspon~ence applys to matrix segments 1-2
only (private employees ):
Base Model Categories
1.Non-Categorized
2.Mining
3.Construction
4.Manufacturing
5.Transportation
6.Communications and Utilities
7.Wholesale Trade
8.Retail Trade
9.Finance,Insurance,Real Estate
10.Service
11.Federal Government
12.State and Local Government
Census Categories 2
1 - 6
7 -11
12 -16
17 -101
102 -110
111 120
121 -138
139 -167
168 -173
174 -222
223 -224
225 -22·7
The following correspondence applys to matrix segments 3-12
for all 227 census industry categories:
Matrix Segment Base Model Category 1
3-4 Male and Female -Federal Government Employee 11
5-6 Male and Female -State Government Employee 12
7-8 Male and Female -Local Government Employee 12
9-10 Male and Female -Self Employed 1
11-12 Male and Female -Unpaid Family Worker 1
lMale workers (odd matrix segments)and female workers (even
matrix segments)are aggregated into total workers before
applying above correspondence..
2Category names are listed in attachment B.
215
(
The results of the occupational forecast are presented as
tables of employment in 440 categories for each year of
interest,selected over the period 1973-1983.Each table
includes sub-totals for 11 major occupational categories
aggregated from the 440 minor categories.Table 8 shows
the correspondence between the major and minor categories.
Accompanying the employment entries on each table are
estimates of uncertainty (errors)in the forecast of each
occupation and each major category sub-total.The method-
ology for these uncertainty estimates are covered at the
end of Section II:Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Results.
Limitations in the occupational model arise from the fact
that the matrix of industry-occupation coefficients could not be
trended to show shifts over time in the occupational struc-
ture within each industry.The census manpower tallies,al-
though now four years old,represents the most definitive
data available on the detailed structure of occupationil
employment in Alaska.There are presently no comparable
data sources more recent upon which to base a trending of
the coefficients.Little is known of how fast or even in
what direction the coefficients of occupational employment
implied by the matrix are changing.In most cases the
~
assumption that over the long run the changes are slow may
be a good one.Although shifts in the occupational structure
may well be significant in a few occupations,the.vast majority
of the 1970 occupational coefficients still represent the
21b
TABLE 8
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN MAJOR AND MINOR OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES
Major Categories
1.Professional,Technical and Kindred
2.Managers and Administrators,excluding
Farm
3.Sales Workers
4.Clerical and Kindred Workers
5.Craftsmen and Kindred Wor~ers
6.Operatives,excluding Transport
7.Transport Equipment Operatives
8.Laborers,excluding Farm
9.Farm Owners,Managers and Workers
10.Service Workers,excluding Private
Household
11.Private Household Workers
Hinor *Categories
1 -124
125 -148
149 -162
163 -210
211 -306
307 -360
361 -372
373 -388
389 -396
397 -434
435 -440
*List of 440 occupational names are given in Attachme~t C.
217
(
best available indicator of future industry-occupation
employment mix.The forecasts produced by the occupational
model do,however,show trends.This is because the economic
base model is predicting different rates of growth in each
of the 12 industry categories.
This is not the place to review the Census's methodology,
but it should be pointed out that the matrix tabulations
are based on a sample and therefore can be expected to con-
tain small random errors,and that the classification of
each respondent into a particular industry-occupation cell
is not perfectly certain.Not only is the judgment of the
census tabulator involved,but the industry designation
of a particular firm may change abruptly.Similarly indivi-
duals do not possess only one skill:they may work mostly
in occupation A,but also in occupation B.The census only
records the industry which most of a firm's products fall
in and the principal occupation of each person.The results
of the occupational forecasts should be interpreted accord-
ingly.
219
BIBLIOGRAPHY
The Economic Base Model of Alaska
Aurousseau,M.,"The Distribution of Population:A Construc-
tive Problem,"Geography Review,1921.
Alexander,"The Non-Basic Concept of Urban Economic Functions,"
Land Economics,Feb.,1956,pp.69-84.
Hochwald,Werner,"Conceptual Issues of Regional Income
Estimations,"in Re ional Income,Studies in Income and
Wealth,XXI (Princeton Unlverslty Press,1957,-34.
Isard,Walter,and Kuenne,Robert,"The Impact of Steel Upon
The Greater New York-Philadelphia Urban-Industrial Region,"
Review of Economics and Statistics,XXXV (November,1953),
289-301.
Leven,Charles L.,Theory and Method of Income and Produce
Accounts for Metropolltan Areas -(Ames,Iowa State College,
1958)mlmeographed.
Moore,Fredrick and Peterson,James,"Regional Analysis:
An Interindustry Model of Utah,"Review of Economics and
Statistics,XXXVII (November,1955),368-380.
Moses,Leon,"Interregional Input-Output Analysis,"American
Economic Review,XLV (December,1956),803-832.
Thompson,Wilber R.,A Preface to Urban Economics (Balfimore
John Hopkins Press,1965),pp.27.