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no.68
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TECHNICAL REPORT
NUMBER 68
Alaska CS
Socioeconomic
Studies Program
Sponsor:
Bureau of Land
Management
Alaska 0 uter
Continental
Shelf Office ...
•ORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF STATEWIDE
:\ND REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC AND
CONOMIC SYSTEMS IMPACTS ANALYSIS
NPS
1111111111111111111111111~ 1111111111111111111111111111111111111
32436000011955
The United States Department of the Interior was designated by the Outer
Continental Shelf (OCS) Lands Act of 1953 to carry out the majority of
the Act's provisions for administering the mineral leasing and develop-
ment of offshore areas of the United States under federal jurisdiction.
Within the Department, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has the
responsibility to meet requirements of the National Environmental Policy
Act of 1969 (NEPA) as well as other legislation and regulations dealing
with the effects of offshore development. In Alaska, unique cultural
differences and climatic conditions create a need for developing addi-
tional socioeconomic and environmental information to improve ocs deci-
sion making at all governmental levels. In fulfillment of its federal
responsibilities and with an awareness of these additional information
needs, the BLM has initiated several investigative programs, one of
which is the Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program (SESP).
The Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program is a multi-year research
effort which attempts to predict and evaluate the effects of Alaska OCS
Petroleum Development upon the physical, social, and economic environ-
ments within the state. The overall methodology is divided into three
broad research components. The first component identifies an alterna-
tive set of assumptions regarding the location, the nature, and the
timing of future petroleum events and related activities. In this
component, the program takes into account the particular needs of the
petroleum industry and projects the human, technological, economic, and
environmental offshore and onshore development requirements of the
regional petroleum industry.
The second component focuses on data gathering that identifies those
quantifiable and qualifiable facts by which OCS-induced changes can be
assessed. The critical community and regional components are identified
and evaluated. Current endogenous and exogenous sources of change and
functional organization among different sectors of community and region-
al life are analyzed. Susceptible community relationships, values,
activities, and processes also are included.
The third research component focuses on an evaluation of the changes
that could occur due to the potential oil and gas development. Impact
eval,uation concentrates on an analysis of the impacts at the statewide,
regional, and local level.
In general, program products are sequentially arranged in accordance
with BLM' s proposed OCS lease sale schedule, so that information is
timely to decisionmaking. Reports are available through the National
Technical Information Service, and the BLM has a limited number of
copies available through the Alaska OCS Office. Inquiries for informa-
tion should be directed to: Program Coordinator (COAR), Socioeconomic
Studies Program, Alaska OCS Office, P. 0. Box 1159, Anchorage, Alaska
99510.
II
ARLIS
Alaska Resources
Library & Information &
Anchorage Alrt~,,
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TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 68 Contract No. AA851-CTI-30
Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program
NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF STATEWIDE AND REGIONAL
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
IMPACT ANALYSIS
Prepared for
Bureau of Land Management
Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Office
June 1982
THIS DOCUMENT IS AVAILABLE TO THE
PUBLIC THROUGH THE NATIONAL
TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE
5285 PORT ROYAL ROAD
SPRINGFIELD, VIRGINIA 22161
f ~ ~ -~ ~ ~ ~ -~ ~ ~-~ ~ ~ :" ~ ~"-·-~ ~-~--~"" ·"-~~ ~-~-~ _~--~ --~ -~ ~-----~-~ -~ ~-~-~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~-~ ~0~----~ -~ --~ --~---~~---------~-----~--... -~ ~ ~ ~-~ ----
ARLIS
Alaska Resources
Library & Information Services
Anchorage Alaska
NOTICE
This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S.
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska
Outer Continental Shelf Office in the interest of information
exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for
its content or use thereof.
Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program
North Aleutian Shelf Statewide and Regional Demographic
and Economic Systems Impact Analysis
Prepared by
Gunnar Knapp, P.J. Hill, and Ed Porter
Institute of Social and Economic Research
ii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES .
LIST OF FIGURES
ABSTRACT . . . .
I.
II.
INTRODUCTION
STATEWIDE AND REGIONAL GROWTH: THE BASELINE
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS ....
The Statewide Economy: Statehood -1979
The Anchorage Census Division ..
The Aleutian Islands Census Division
Bristol Bay
III. THE BASE CASE ..
Methodology
The Base Case Assumptions:
The Base Case Assumptions:
The Base Case Projections
The MAP Models
The SCIMP Model
IV. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF THE NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
The OCS Sale Cases ..... .
Statewide Impacts ..... .
Regional Impacts: Anchorage ..
Regional Impacts: Bristol Bay
Aleutian Islands Impacts
APPENDIX A: The MAP Regional Model ...
APPENDIX B: Projection of Bottomfish Harvesting and
Processing Employment .
APPENDIX C: OCS Employment Assumptions
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
iii
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XV
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3
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34
44
74
108
108
116
159
165
190
190
201
223
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267
277
305
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1.
2.
LIST OF TABLES
Value of Production for Selected Industries, Various
Years, 1960-1979 .............. .
Civilian Employment, Unemployment and Labor Force
1960, 1965, 1970-1978, by Broad Industry
Classification .................... .
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Index of Seasonal Variation in Nonagricultural
Employment: Selected Years 1960-1978
Personal Income by Major Component: Alaska, Selected
Years, 1960-1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Alaska Resident Adjusted Personal Income in Current
and Constant 1979 Dollars, 1960, 1965, and
1970-1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Distribution of Relative Wage Rates, by Industry, for
Alaska, Selected Years, 1965-1978 ....
Change in Real Average Monthly Wage, 1973-1976, Alaska
Rates of Change for the Anchorage and U.S. Consumer
Price Index, Selected Years, 1960~1981 ....
Alaska Population and Components of Change: 1965-1978
10. Alaska Population by Age, 1980
11. Anchorage Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment,
Selected Years ................ .
12. Anchorage Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment,
1970-1978 . . . . . . . . . .
13.
14.
15.
16.
Anchorage Personal Income 1965-1978 .
Anchorage Population 1965-1980
Catch and Value to Fishermen, Aleutian Islands Census
Division 1970 to 1976, Selected Years .....
Shellfish Harvest, Aleutian Islands Census Division,
.
.
1962, 1965-1976 ............. .
___ _17. Shel_l fish Harv_es:t, by ArE:! a., Se 1 (:!ct_ed Years 1992-197!)
v
. . .
. . .
7
13
15
19
22
24
26
28
32
33
36
38
39
41
45
46
47
18. Residence of Boats and Gear License Holders Fishing
the Aleutians . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19. Military and Related Federal-Civilian Employment and
Wages, Aleutian Islands Census Division, 1978 .
20. Average Civilian Monthly Employment Aleutian Is'lands
Census Division, 1965-1978 . . . . . . . . . . .
21. Aleutian Islands Census Division Estimated Resident
and Nonresident Employment, 1978 . . . . . . . .
22. Aleutian Islands Census Division: Civilian Resident
Labor Force, Total Employment, and Unemployment
1970-1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23. Report of Labor Force 1978 Compiled by Bureau of Indian
Affairs, Anchorage Agency . . . . . . . .
24. Personal Income by Place of Residence: Aleutian Islands
Census Division, 1965-1978 ....
25. Aleutian Islands Personal Income, 1978, by Sector,
Components, and Geographic Disposition ....
26. Family Income: Number and Percent of Native and White
Families by Income Levels, Aleut Corporation Area
27. Aleutian Islands Civilian and Total Resident Population:
1960, 1970-1978 .......... .
28. Aleutian Islands: Components of Population Change,
1970-1978 . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . .
29. Aleut Region Population by Community, 1977
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
30. Catch and Value to Fishermen, Bristol Bay, 1969 to 1981 ..
31.
32.
Bristol Bay Permanent Entry Salmon Permits Gear Type
and Residence, 1979 ............ .
Average Gross Earnings from Salmon Fishing by Gear
Type and Residence, 1979 . . . . . . . . . . .
33. Military and Related Federal Civilian Employment and
Wages, Bristol Bay Borough and Bristol Bay Census
Division, 1978 .............. .
34. Average Civilian Monthly Employment, Bristol Bay
Labor Area ..... -~ .-.-.. ~ .: ~ ....
vi
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49
54
56
59
61
63
65
66
70
72
72
73
76
79
79
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35. Average Civilian Monthly Employment, Bristol Bay
Census Division ............. .
36. Average Civilian Monthly Employment, Bristol Bay
Borough Division ............. .
37. Bristol Bay Monthly Nonagricultural Employment by
Sector, 1979 ............... .
38. Bristol Bay Summary of Employment by Residency of
Employees, Large Processors ..... .
39. Bristol Bay Average Annual Estimated Resident and
Nonresident Employment, 1979 ...... _ .
40. Summary Employment Statistics, Bristol Bay Labor Area
41. Monthly Labor Force and Employment, Bristol Bay, 1979
42. Personal Income, Bristol Bay Division
43. Personal Income, Bristol Bay Borough
44. Income of Families by Percent in Income Class,
Bristol Bay, 1970 ....... .
45. Population Growth, Bristol Bay, 1960~1980 ....
46. Components of Population Change, Bristol Bay Borough,
1960-1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47. Dillingham Census Area Population by Community, 1980
48. Summary of Base Case Assumptions: MAP Models
49. Trans-Alaska Pipeline Employment Assumptions
50. Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System Employment
Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51. Prudhoe Bay Petroleum Production Employment Assumptions
52. Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production Employment
Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
53. National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska Employment
Assumptions ........ .
88
89
91
93
95
97
97
100
101
103
105
105
106
118-119
122
123
125
128
130
b 54. Assumed OCS Oil and Gas Discoveries, Base Case .... _· . . 131 ·
- - -=-------=--- --=-----=-----= = -=-------.---- -----= ---=--=----=~-------=--------- ------------- - - - - - ---- - ---::-- - -
[
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55. ocs Sale BF (Beaufort Sea) Employment Assumptions . .
56. ocs Sale 55 (Gulf of Alaska) Employment Assumptions
57. ocs Sale 60 (Lower Cook Inlet) Employment Assumptions
58. ocs Sale 71 (Beaufort Sea) Employment Assumptions .
59. ocs Sale 57 (Bering Norton) Employment Assumptions
60. ocs Sale 70 (St. George) Employment Assumptions . .
61. Beluga Chuitna Coal Production Employment Assumptions . . .
62. 11 0ther Mining 11 Employment Assumptions .
63. Agricultural Employment Assumptions ..
64. Logging and Sawmill Employment Assumptions
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
Nonbottomfish Commercial Fishing and Processing
Employment Assumptions ......... .
Bottomfish Fishing and Processing Employment Assumptions
Federal Civilian Employment Assumptions
Federal Military Employment Assumptions .
State Revenue Assumptions . . . . . . .
Calculation of Population Data for SCIMP Run, Aleutian
Island Census Divison ........ .
SCIMP Model Exogenous Employment Assumptions
Projected Population and Components of Change: Alaska,
1980 to 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Projected Age Structure of Alaska Population, 1980-2000 .
Projected Employment: Alaska, 1980-2000 ..
Projected Personal Income and Personal Income Per
Capita: Alaska, 1980-2000 ....
Projected Wages and Salaries by Sector: Alaska, 1980-2000
77. P roj e~ted R~al Wage Rates: Al asl<ct, 1981-2000 .
viii
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
141-142
144
145
146-147
150
152-153
154-155
157
160
163
166
168
169
171
173
175
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78.
79.
80.
Projected Alaska and U.S. Inflation Rates, 1980-2000
Projected State Government Revenues: Alaska,
1980-2000 . . . . . . . . . . .
Projected State Government Expenditures:
1980-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Alaska,-
81. Projected Alaska Permanent Fund Balance and Permanent
Fund Balance Per Capita: 1980 to 2000 . ~ ...
82. Base Case Projected Population and Employment, Anchorage
Census Division, 1980-2000 ............ ~
83. Base Case Projected Population and Employment, Bristol
Bay Region, 1980-2000 ............. .
84. SCIMP Mode 1: Basic Sector Employment Projections, Base
Case . .
85. SCIMP Model: Government Employment Projections, Base
Case . .
86. SCIMP Mode 1: Employment Projections, Base Case
87. SCIMP Model: Population Projections~ Base Case
88. North Aleutian Shelf OCS Resident Alaskan Employment
Assumptions for MAP Model Projections .....
89. OCS Employment Inputs for SCIMP Model Runs, Mean Case
90. OCS Employment Inputs for SCIMP Model Runs, Low Case
91. OCS Employment Inputs for SCIMP Model Runs, High Case ..
92. OCS Employment Inputs for SCIMP Model Runs, Alternative
Four Case
93. OCS Employment Inputs for SCIMP Model Runs, Mean
Offshore Loading Case .....
94. OCS Employment Inputs for SCIMP Model Runs, Alternative
Four Offshore Loading case . . . . . .
95. North Aleutian Shelf Sale Oil and Gas Property Tax
Assumptions Used for MAP Model Projections ..
ix
176
177
179
181
182
183
185
186
187
189
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
200
97. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Total Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
98. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Basic Sector Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . .
99. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Services Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
100. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Government Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
101. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Real Personal Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
102. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Real Per Capita Personal Income . . . . . . . . .
103. Projected Impact of North Aleuti~n Shelf Sale Statewide
Total Real Wages and Salaries . . . . . . . . . .
104. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Real Wage Rate in Basic Sector . . . . . . . . . .
105. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Real Wage Rate in Services Sector . . . . . . . .
106. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale Statewide
Real Wage Rate in Government Sector . . . . .
107. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, Alaska
Rate of Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
108. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, Total
State General Fund Revenues . . . . . . . . . . .
109. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, State
Government Interest Earnings . . . . . . . . . . .
110. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, Total
State Government Expenditures . . . . . . . . . .
111. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, Per
Capita State Expenditures . . . . . . . . . .
112. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Accumulated Permanent Fund Balance . . . . . . . .
113. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, Per -------------------------cap:ita--Ac~I,JmtiT atedPe~ma:ne_n_t_Funa--BaTance--:---:--:--:
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114. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Anchorage Population .......... .
115. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Anchorage Total Employment . 0 0 •••••
116. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, Bristol
Bay Population .............. .
117. Projected Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale, Bristol
Bay Total Employment .............. .
118. Projected Absolute Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Basic Sector Nonresident Employment
119. Projected Percentage Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Basic Sector Nonresident Employment
120. Projected Absolute Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Basic Sector Resident Employment
121. Projected Percentage Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Basic Sector Resident Employment
122. Projected Absolute Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Civilian Government Employment •.
123. Projected Percentage Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Civilian Government Employment .
124. Projected Absolute Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Support Sector Employment ..
125. Projected Percentage Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Support Sector Employment 0 ••••
126. Projected Absolute Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Civilian Resident Population
127. Projected Percentage Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Civilian Resident Population
128. Projected Absolute Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Total Population (Including
Military, Military Dependents, Enclave Residents,
and Fishermen) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..
129. Projected Percentage Impact of North Aleutian Shelf Sale,
Aleutian Islands Total Population (Including
· -Mi-l-itary--Mi-litary-Dependents--Enc-lave-Residents····--·-' . , ' and Fishermen) ................. .
xi
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225
226
227
230
231
232
233
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
130. Employment Composition, 1979 .......... .
131. Assumed Costs of Interregional Service Provision
132. Employment Interaction Matrix, 1979
133. Population/Employment Ratios, 1979
134. Allocation of Harvest Assumptions .
135. Bottomfish Employment Residency Assumptions
136. SCIMP Model Aleutian Islands Bottomfish Employment
Assumptions ................ .
137. Location and Residence Assumptions for OCS Employment,
Sale 75 (North Aleutian Shelf)
138. ocs Employment, Mean Base Case
139. ocs Employment, Low Find (95% Probability) Case .
140. ocs Employment, High Find (5% Probability) Case .
141. ocs Employment~ Alternative 4 Case . . . . . .
142. ocs Employment, Mean Base Case with Offshore Loading
143. Alternative 4 Case with Offshore Loading ..... .
xii
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251
253
. 264
265
271
. 273
274
278-279
281-284
285-288
289-292
293-296
297-300
301-304
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIST OF FIGURES
Distribution of Wage and Salary Income, Alaska,
1965 and 1978 . . 29
The MAP Statewide Model . . 0 . 110
The MAP Statewide Economic Model 113
Schematic Representation of Regional Model CDMOD 245
Alaska Census Divisions 0 . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . 246
xiii
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ABSTRACT
NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF STATEWIDE AND REGIONAL
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS IMPACTS ANALYSES
Thi~ study examines economic and demographic impacts of the proposed
Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) petroleum development of the North
Aleutian Shelf (Sale 75). The study begins with historical baseline
analyses of the population and economies of the State of Alaska and of
the Anchorage, Aleutian Islands, and Bristol Bay census divisions.
Next, base case projections of conditions in the absence of OCS devel-
opment are prepared for these areas and, subsequently, the impacts of
OCS development are examined. The statewide, Anchorage, and Bristol
Bay projections used the MAP statewide and regional models, while the
Aleutian Islands projections used the SCIMP model. Both of these
models were developed at the University of Alaska Institute of Social
and Economic Research (ISER). The models' projections reflect numer-
ous assumptions about future exogenous activities.
The statewide base case projection of population in 2000 is 649
thousand. The maximum percentage impact of the North Aleutian Shelf
mean case OCS development upon statewide population would be 1.15
percent, or 7 ,868, in 1982. The Aleutian Islands base case total
population (including enclave residents and military) in 2000 is
b--··-·--·-·-·--_?~ !_0_8~~ ___ T~e-_rn~)(_irn_u~ __ p~~ce~!~~e imP~~! -~f __ !be_ .. ~~!th ... ~!e_u!~a_n __ S_he}!
mean case OCS development upon the Aleutian Islands population would
[
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be 2. 5 percent (822) in 1990. The maximum percentage impacts upon
Aleutian Islands resident employment would be 16.6 percent (145) in
1990. The maximum projected impact upon Aleutian Islands nonresident
or enclave employment (excluding military) would be 27.6 percent (733)
in 1989.
xvi
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I. INTRODUCTION
This study is concerned primarily with measuring the economic effects
of the proposed Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) petroleum development in
the North Aleutian Shelf (Sale 75). This study includes a statewide
and regional historical baseline analysis and base case projections
against which the direct and indirect economic effects of North
Aleutian Shelf OCS petroleum development are measured. The analysis
and projections are carried out on a statewide 1 evel and for three
regions within the state: the Aleutian Islands, Bristol Bay, and
Anchorage.
Part II of the study contains the historical baseline analysis for
each of the economic areas in question and generally focuses on
specific economic and demographic concerns relevant to an under-
standing of the historic growth of the economies. The baseline
analysis also assists in laying the foundation for the base case
assumptions regarding future growth of the areas.
Part III contains three important elements. First, the underlying
projection methodology is explained and reviewed in terms of the
economic mode 1 s used and the accuracy and 1 i mi tat ions of the pro-
jection methodology. Second, the assumptions used to 11 drive 11 the
mode 1 s are presented. Finally, the base case projections for the
respective areas are presented, i.e. , the economic and demographic
projections in th~ ab~ence of OCS development.
Part IV of the study presents a description and analysis of the pro-
jected impacts associated with the proposed North Aleutian Shelf lease
sale. Results for the different OCS scenarios are discussed, both at
the statewide and regional levels. Supporting materials are contained
in the appendices.
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II. STATEWIDE AND REGIONAL GROWTH:
THE BASELINE HISTORICAL ANALYSIS
This chapter provides historic baseline studies for Alaska and for
Anchorage, the Aleutian Islands, and Bristol Bay. These studies are
provided for three reasons. First, they should provide the unini-
tiated reader with a general sense of the structure of the economy and
how and why it has changed over time. Second, they provide some indi-
cation of how individuals within the system have benefited from the
functioning of the system; i.e., an assessment of economic well-being ..
Third, they provide guidance in developing assumptions regarding
future development of the economy.
Potential impacts of OCS development will not be felt uniformly
throughout the state. Specific regions within Alaska can be expected
to experience both the brunt of the impacts and to capture dispropor-
t ion ate shares of the benefits. Therefore, we address not only the
statewide economy, but specific regional economies as well.
The Statewide Economy: Statehood -1979
At the risk of oversimplification, the economic history of Alaska can
be summarized as one of resources~ defense, disaster, more resources,
b ______ .~ _ --~~<! _g_o'./~~n_m~r1!· ~ri o.r t~ _\\f_o~l ~-\ol_~r_!!,_ j~!_~r_e~~_f_n_ ~~~--~!Ci!_~_f~C:~~cj_ _ _ ___ _ _ ___ _
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largely on natural resource exploitation, primarily based on furs,
fish, and hard rock minerals. World War II and the cold war aftermath
lead to a sizable military-government involvement in the state, both
in terms of population and economic activity.
The advent of statehood found an economy reflecting a narrowly based
private sector, largely dependent upon limited natural resource activ-
ity, and a large federal civili.an and military presence. In 1960, for
example, federal civilian wages and salaries accounted for 25 percent
of the total civilian wage bill, while state government (5.9 percent)
and local government (5.1 percent) made up an additional 11 percent of
total wage and salary payments. When military payrolls are included,
42.5 percent of wage and salary income was accounted for by government.
Discovery of the Swanson River oi 1 fie 1 d in 1957 had done much to
raise expectations about future economic prospects, but it was not
until major discoveries in Cook Inlet during 1965 that the oil and gas
industry became firmly established and significant levels of produc-
tion were assured. The emergence of petroleum resources as a signifi-
cant factor in the Alaska economy considerably improved the potential
for private sector development and, more importantly, helped to shore
up the extremely shaky fiscal base of state government.
For the mid-and latter part of the decade of the 1960s, it was to be
natura 1 disaster that provided much of the impetus for economic
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growth. The Good Friday earthquake of 1964 resulted in a major recon-
struction effort which supported levels of economic activity that
probably would not have been achieved otherwise. A second disaster,
of lesser statewide magnitude but of great consequence for the Fair-
banks region, was the flood of 1967. Disaster relief and reconstruc-
tion funds, followed later by flood control projects, provided a need-
ed boost for the region's economy.
Discovery of oil at Prudhoe Bay in 1968 marks the beginning of the
latest phase of Alaska economic history. Development of the super-
giant field, construction of the oil pipeline, and the related flows
of revenue to state government are providing the impetus for sustained
economic growth and diversification that should carry the state well
into the 21st century.
Against this backdrop, we can now look more specifically at several
important dimensions of growth and change in the Alaska economy. As
suggested earlier, there are certain key measures of economic activity
that are central to the analysis. Personal income and employment data
provide insight into the over a 11 growth of the economy and changes in
the composition of economic activity. In addition, these data can be
used as general indicators of changes in economic well-being over
time. An important corollary variable is population growth. It is
also instructive to. review aggregate measures of production for the
r-' economy. t -------------~------------------------------_---'-----------~------~~---------------------------:-----------------·------------------·-------------·----------~------------------·--------------------
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In addition to these general measures of economic activity, there are
several specific attributes of the economy that need to be considered.
These include such topics as secular and seasonal unemployment, the
structure of costs and prices, and the role of state government with
respect to determining overall economic activity. Finally, we must
consider issues related to potential future economic activity. We now
turn to specific measures of the economy.
PRODUCTION
Data measuring the gross value of production by industrial classifica-
tion are not available for recent years. However, various measures of
the value of output for selected industries have been compiled and are
presented in Table 1. Except for agriculture, the industries reflect
the primary "export base 11 components of the private sector economy.
Data on federal and total government expenditures have also been in-
eluded for comparative purposes. Furthermore, a large portion of fed-
eral government outlays indirectly reflects an export o{ goods and
services by the private sector economy of Alaska.
Fisheries and petroleum have clearly dominated growth in the value of
production in the private sector. Va 1 ue of catch to fishermen has
grown at an average annua 1 rate of 15 percent over the period, and
wholesale value has grown almost as rapidly (14.4 percent), reflecting
both the substantial growth of shellfishing and rising product prices.
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___ -----------~~~~de_f_l~~~d b~~-h_e_~~-~~~-me ~--p~~~~--~ nd~=--~~~~~~---~:_ap~ro~~-i:~e-~~-~~------------b-_
are interested in implicit purchasing power), the value of catch grew
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Table l, Value of Production for Selected Industries
Various Years, 1960-1979
(millions of current dollars)
Federal Total
IndustrY Agriculture Forestry Fisheries Oil & Gas Government Government
Qalue to F1snermen wnolesale Crude Dry Outlays in Spending in
Year Salmon Shellfish Total Value Oil ~ Alaska (FY~ Alaska (FY~
1960 5.6 47.3 33.6 3.1 40.9 96.7 1.2 .03 155.8 N.A.
1961 5.7 48.0 35.7 5.1 46.5 128.7 17.7 .129 N.A. N.A.
1962 5.7 52.3 42.1 7.1 58.4 131.9 31.2 • 467 N.A . N.A.
1963 5.3 54.1 31.3 9.6 46.9 109.0 32.7 1 • 1 N.A. N.A.
1964 5.6 61.0 41.4 10.0 56.8 140.9 33.6 1.7 N.A. N.A.
1"965 5.3 57.5 48.3 14.5 70.1 166.6 34.1 1.8 533.7 N.A.
........ 1966 5.3 71.2 54.2 17.6 81.9 197.3 44.1 6.3 N.A. N.A.
1967 5.2 80.6 24.6 18.3 48.8 126.7 88.2 7.3 N.A. N.A.
1968 . 4.9 89.2 49.5 27.9 79.9 191.7 186.7 4.4 N.A. N.A.
1969 4.3 101.0 40.6 20.8 68.1 144.2 214.5 12.7 N.A. N.A.
1970 5.2 93,7 68.0 20.5 97.5 213.9 232.8 18.2 728.7 N.A.
1971 5.0 103.5 51.4 25.0 85.5 198.7 234.3 18.0 852.9 N.A.
1972 . 6.0 82.3 45.3 33.6 92.4 185.7 221.7 18.0 989.4 N.A.
1973 7.0 131.4 60.1 61.4 142.4 283.0 239.6 19.5 1018.6 1592
1974 8.1 154,7 65.7 62.8 144.8 254 347.4 22.5 1135.9 1730
1975 9.2 133.5 55.3 55.4 129.4 293 364.6 42.8 1326.8 2000
1976 8.8 149,5 118.0 96.5 239.6 452 318.8 60.5 1368.1 2226
1977 9.9 179,3 171 157 349 723P 988.9 66.6 1544.9 2524
1978 9.2 N.A .• 238P 272P 543P 111ag 2701'. 5 89.6 1753.0 2845
1979 9 .lP N.A. 317P 231P 606P 1243 5493.6P 91.5 1932.2 3147e
p =preliminary
e = estimate
N.A. = not available
SOURCE: See Table 1 Notes
Table 1 Notes
The data are primarily obtained from selected tables in The Alaksa
Economy: Year-End Performance Report 1978 (Alaska Department of Cornmerce
and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise; Juneau, Alaska)
and Alaska Statistical Review (Alaska Department of Commerce and EconGmic
Development, Divislon·of Economic Enterprise; Juneau, Alaksa, 1980). The.
latter source is a preliminary report. Specific sources for each column
of the table follow.
Agriculture: page B-13 Alaska Statistical Review (ASR). Value of sales
is approximately 74 percent of value of production, with the balance
being used on farm.
Forestry: Data from 1960-1971 are from Alaska Statistical Review (1972),
p. 90, and reflect total end product value. For 1972-1977, the data are
from the 1978 Year End Performance Report and reflect.only forest prod-
uct exports. Here the series are not comparable, but individually
reflect growth in the periods in question. Comparable series are not
available over the full period.
Fisheries: Data for 1972-1975 are from the 1978 Year End Performance
~' p. 58. 1976 data are from Alaska Catch and Production: 1976
(Alaska Department of Fish and Game). 1977-1979 data are from ASR
(1980). 1960-1971 data are from ASR (1972) p. 74. Data for 1960-71,
1976-79 are comparable. Data for 1972-75 represent approximately 92 per-
cent of total wholesale value.
Oil and Gas: ASR (1980) p. B-3. It should be noted that these data do
not include value added in transportation and here reflect approximate
\vell head value.
Federal Government Outlays in Alaska: 1960-1977 data are from 1978 Year
End Report, p. 105. 1978-1979 data are from ASR (1980), p. E-2. Data
are for fiscal year ending in given calendar year.
Total Government Spending in Alaska: Data from ·AsR (1980) p. E-1. The
total is net of intergovernmental transfers.
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at almost 10.3 percent and the wholesale value by 9.5 percent. Crude
oil and natural gas percentage growth rates are relatively meaningless
since the base in 1960 is negligible, but their significance is obvi-
ous. It is also worth noting that in 1978 (the last year for which
data are available) production of minerals other than oil and gas and
sand and gravel amounted to 18.4 million dollars, or about 0.6 percent
of the total value of mineral production. Neither has there been any
significant change in the value of this dimension of mining over the
past two decades. In deflated dollars, federal government expendi-
tures have grown at about 9.3 percent.
Government expenditures are not directly comparable to the value of ..
production in other industries since they reflect not only government
production (wages and salaries) but purchases of goods and services
and transfer payments to individuals. However, in another sense these
expenditures do reflect a measure of demand for production of goods
and services throughout the economy as a whole and underscore the con-
tinuing importance of government spending in the economy.
Of particular significance in overall government spending is the role
of state government spending. The state fiscal history can roughly be
divided into three periods: early post-statehood, Prudhoe Bay sale to
pipeline completion, and Prudhoe Bay production.
b-~~~ .. ~~~~~~~~~g~~t~h.=_!~~st _ _!>:~!_od_,__!e_d_e_ra~~ g_o~er_n_m:_~t_jJ_r~nts, both statehood
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transition grants· and others, were an important component of state
9
government revenues. The relative decline in federal grants were more
than offset by revenues linked to general economic growth and the de-
velopment of Cook Inlet petroleum resources, but expenditures were
constrained by available revenues.
The $900 million Prudhoe Bay lease sale in the fall of 1969 ushered in
the second period and led to an immediate doubling of state government
expenditures. Growth in expenditures continued rapidly, although
still constrained by available revenues and the rapidly diminishing
balance of the lease sale. The third period is marked by the com-
mencement of production from Prudhoe Bay; and, for the first time, the
state has significant potential surplus revenues.
The rapid expansion of revenues since 1969 has resulted in a closely
correlated growth of state government expenditures. This is reflected
not only in expanding state government employment and wages but also
by total government expenditures for purchases of goods and services
and transfers to local government. The net result has been that state
government spending (both directly and through local government) has
assumed a significant role in the overall determination of economic
activity in Alaska. This is a pattern which will prevail for some
time into the future.
In summary, the role of natural resources in the growth of the Alaska
economy has been dominated by fisheries and petroleum. Forest
-------------
products have remained regionally important, primarily for Southeast
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Alaska, but have not demonstrated significant growth. Agriculture has
remained stagnant, and, in real terms, the value of production has de-
clined. Government has remained a major force in the economy, with
state and local government increasing in relative proportion to total
government.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WORK FORCE
Analysis of employment, unemployment, and work force data is important
for several reasons. First, since labor is one of the key factors of
production, employment data provide a general indicator of the growth
and composition of production over time. The main deficiency with
these data for such purposes is that they ignore changes in factor
proportions over time and differences in factor proportions between
industries. This omission is particularly important in industries
that are highly capital-intensive, such as the petroleum industry.
A 1 so, si nee these data are based on job counts, they do not reflect
actual man hours of production and, hence, provide only an approximate
measure of labor input.
Second, work force data, in conjunction with tota 1 emp 1 oyment data,
determine unemployment. It is instructive to observe the patterns of
unemp 1 oyment over time and in response to changes in tota 1 economic
activity. Third, the data are useful in measuring seasonal patterns
~ of economic activity and how this may have changed over time.
,. b--~ --------~-----~ __ ____:__~-~--. -:-~~
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Tables 2 and 3 provide summary data on employment, labor force, and
unemployment for selected years over the 1960-1978 period. Total em-
ployment over this period grew at an annual average rate of 4.9 per-
cent. However, substantial variation in the growth rate is evident.
From 1960-1973, the rate was 3 percent; while for 1974-1978 (reflect-
i ng the pipe 1 i ne boom) the rate was 8. 6 percent. The growth of the
civilian labor force shows a similar pattern, although increasing at a
slightly higher rate. The result of this is that total unemployment
has grown at about 7 percent per year over the period and the unem-
ployment rate has also increased.
It is also worth noting that during the pre-pipeline period the unem-
ployment rate was relatively stable and that the somewhat higher rates
of 1977 and 1978 reflect in large part a readjustment to a more normal
post-pipeline period. These data clearly illustrate the openness of
the Alaska labor market. Large variations in the demand for labor are
primarily met by significant in-and out-migration and by changes in
labor force participation rates. As a consequence, the long-run rate
of unemployment is quite stable and the simple expansion of economic
activity has little effect in terms of reducing unemployment. The
second block of data in Table 2 provides annual average employment
data by broad industry classification. In addition to illustrating
the sustained growth of employment and production in all industry cat-
egories, these data also indicate relative changes in the significance
of specific industries.
----~-----------~--~
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Total Civili~n Labor Force
I
Total Unemployment
. I
% of Total Labor Force
Tot a 1 E 1 : j t . mpoT
Nonagricultutal Wage and
Salary Empioyment
Mining I
Contract Construction
I . r~anufactun ng
Fobd Processing
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1960
73.6
5.9
8.0%
67.7
TABLE 2. CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
1960, 1965, 1970-1978, BY BROAD INDUST~f CLASSIFICATION
(IN THOUSANDS)
1965
89.8
7.7
8.6%
82.1
1970
91.6
6.5
7.1%
85.1
1971
97.7
8.0
8.2%
89.6
1972
103.6
8.6
8.3%
95.0
1973
109.1
9.3
8.5%
99.9
1974
125.6
9.9
7.9%
115.7
1975
156.0
10.8
6.9%
145.3
1976
168.0
14.0
8.3%
154.0
1977
174.0
16.0
9.2%
158.0
1978
181.0
20.0
11.0%
161.0
~-%-~-%-f.!TI.P..:.._%_ ~-%-~-%-~-%-~-%-~-%-~-%-~-%-~-%
56.9 100.0 70.5 100.0 92.5 100.0 97.6 100.0 105.4 100.0 111.2 100.0 129.7 100.0 163.7 100.0 173.5 100.0 166.0 100.0 163.2 100.
1.1 1.9
5.9 10.4
5.8 10.1
2.8
1.1
6.5
6.2
3.0
1.6
9.2
8.8
4.3
2.4 1.8 3.0 2.3 3.8 2.3 4.0 2.3 5.0 3.0 5.6
7.0 14.1 10.9 25.9 15.8 30.2 17.4 19.5 11.7 12.2
3.
7.
5.9 10.3 5.9 10.9 6.6 11.5 . 7.
Lo~ging, Lumber, Pulp 2.2
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4.9
3.9 2.3. 3.3
3.0
6.9
7.8
3.7
2.8
3.2
7.5
8.4
4.0
3.0
7.4
7.8
3.6
2.8
2.5
7.6
8.0
3.7
2.9
2.1
7.9
8.1
3.7
2.8
2.0
7.5
7.7
3.5
2.7
2.0
7.8
9.4
4.6
3.2
8.5
4.1
2.9
9.6
4.3.
3.6
7.4
3.3
2.8
9.6
4.3
3.4
2.6
2.1
5.1
3.2
2.9
1.8
5,5
3.5
3.3
2.1
6.3
1.8
3.
l.
Transpo~tation, Communications
Publit Utilities 6.8
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Trade ]
Financel Insurance,
Real Estate
• I Serv1ces
I Government
I
I Federa 1
I Stfte
I Local
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12.0 7.3 10.4 9.1 9.8 9.8 10.0 .10.0 9.5 10.4 9.4 12.4 9.6 ]6.5 10.1 15.8 9.1 15.6 9.4 16.4 10.
7.7 13.5 10.0 14.2 15.4 16.6' 16.1 16.5 17.1 16.2 18.3 16.5 21.1 16.3 26.2 16.0 27.6 15.9 28.5 17.2 28.8 17.
1.4
5.6
2.5
9.8
2.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.5 4.2 3.8 4.9 3.8 6.0 3.7 7.1 4.1 7.8 4.7 8.2 5.
7.5 10~6 11.4 12.3 12.5 12.8 14.0 13.3 15.2 13.7 18.3 14.1 25.1 15.3 27.7 16.0 27.4 16.5 27.6 16.
22.7 39.9 29.7 42.1 35.5 38.5 38.0 38.9 41.~ 39.6. 42.8 38.5 45.3 34.9 49.5 30.2 49.7 28.6 50.7 30.5 52.2 32.
15.6 27.4 17.4 24.7 17.1 18.5 17.3 17.7 17.2 16.3 17.2 15.5 18.0 13.9 18.3 11.2 17.9 10.3 17.7 10.7 18.1 li.
3,9 6.9 7.0 9.9 10.4 11.2 11.7 12.0 13.3 12.6 13.8 12.4 14.2 10.9 15.5 9,5 14.1 8.1 13.9 8,4 14,3 8.
3.2 5.6 5,3 7.5 8.1 8.8 9,0 9.2 11.2 10.6 11.9 10.7 13.1 10.1 15.8 9.7 17.6 10.1 19.1 11.5 19.8 12.
Table 2 Notes
Sources of data: 1960, 1965 ASR (1972) p. 16. It should be noted
that the 11 labor force 11 data are actually work force data for these two
years and are not directly comparable with the data for 1970-1978. The
basic difference between the two series is that work force estimates are
based on job counts and, hence, a worker may be counted-more than once
if holding two or more jobs. Labor force estimates are supposed to
eliminate this double counting. Thus, the work force data for 1960
and 1965 somewhat overstate the actual number of emplo~ed.
In 1970-1978, labor force and total employment estimates are obtained
from Alaska Labor Force Estimates by Area (Alaska Department of Labor),
various years.
Non-agricultural wage and salary_data are obtained from the Statistical
Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor) for the various years.
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TABLE 3. INDEX OF SEASONAL VARIATION IN NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT: SELECTED YEARS 1960~1978
1960 1965 1970 1972 1974
Total Nonagricultural
Employment 39.4 30.6 22.7 24.6 32.0
Contract Construction 156.2 91.7 69.5 77.6 108.2
Manufacturing 136.3 116.3 107.9 105.2 70.8
1976
23. 1
64.7
78.2
Food Processing 211.5 195.2 196.3 175.3 100.6 112.0
Trade 20.8 20.0 15.6 14.8 25.1 13.5
Services 28.4 17.2 10.7 16.2 26.8 13.3
Unemployment Rate,
All Industries 117.5 74A 59.2 65.1 82.3 45.8
Labor Force 28.2 26.5 21.8 21.0 27.1 21.2
1978
14.0
4l.2
86.5
125.0
12.0
17.8
30.0
12.0
r 'SOURCE: Compiled from Statistical Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor),
t~~~~~--p-~~~-~~~-selected years. Seasonal variation rs-measurecras--fhe--nigh monfh~~~~~~~
minus the l·ow.inonth divided by average annual figure, stated as
l a percent. Unemployment data are from Labor Force Estimates
(Alaska Department of Labor), various years.
[ 15
Employment in mining is the one basic sector industry that has in-
creased its share of total employment. The federal government share
has declined substantially over the period, while both state and local
government have grown, with much of the growth in state government em-
ployment occurring during the 1960s and the early 1970s. Local gov-
ernment growth lagged state government in the early years, but by 1975
local government employ~ent exceeded state government employment. Of
particular interest is the growth of support sector activity, includ-
ing trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and services. This
growth reflects a s·teady diversification of support sector activity
and the process of import substitution in response to increasing mar-
ket size, growth of incomes, and opportunities for specialization. In
short, the data reflect a general maturation of the economy.
It is also of interest to consider changes in seasonal patterns of
economic activity. Table 3 summarizes seasonal activity in selected
industries, as well as for total nonagricultural wage and salary em-
ployment,· labor force, and unemployment. Seasonal variation is mea-
sured as the high month minus the low month divided by the average an-
nual figure for the respective variable. Because of secular growth in
the variables, the index tends to overstate seasonality for any given
year, but for comparative purposesJ over time, the index is satisfac-
tory.
The data reflect two important dimensions of the Alaska economy.
First, seasonality varies drastically from industry to industry, with
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construction and manufacturing (especially food processing) showing
the greatest seasonal swings. Second, while significant seasonality
remains in all industry, there has been a major reduction over time.
In summary, the data on labor force, employment, and unemployment il-
lustrate several important features of the Alaska economy. First,
wh i 1 e growth has been uneven, aggregate economic activity has in-
creased substantially since statehood. Contract construction, mining,
and support sector industries grew rapidly during pipeline construe-
tion. With the exception of contract construction, levels of employ-
ment achieved at the peak of pipeline construction have generally been
sustained or have increased.
Second, 'Structural change that reflects a general maturing of the eco-
nomy has occurred, as evi de need by the increased share of total em-
ployment accounted for by support sector activity, including trade,
finance, insurance and real estate, and services. Coupled with the
greatly reduced dependence of the state on federal government activity
and the growth of petroleum and fisheries, the data indicate a general
broadening and diversification of economic activity.
Third, in addition to sustained secular growth, there has been a mark-
ed decrease in seasonal swings in economic activity. In part, this
reflects the relative growth of industries with smaller seasonal vari-
-[}-~~----~~---a!_i~~s~~!n addi~ion.' construction and fish processing seasonalit_y~
have also reduced substantially.
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Finally, the relative stability of unemployment rates over time clear-
ly indicates the openness of the Alaska labor market. The generally
higher than national average unemployment rates have not responded to
aggregate economic expansion historically and probably will not in the
future.
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income measures that part of the total value of production
that accrues to individuals and includes: wage and salary income;
other labor income; proprietor•s income; income from dividends, inter-
est, and rent; and persona 1 transfer payments. Whi 1 e deficient in
many respects as a measure of economic well-being, it is nevertheless
a useful indicator of the degree to which individuals share in the to-
tal benefits of production. Table 4 presents estimates of personal
income for Alaska, by major source, for selected years covering the
period from 1960 through 1978.
Personal income has grown steadily over the entire period, at an aver-
age annual rate of 11.3 percent, while for the pipeline period the
growth was about 17 percent per year. Wage and salary income account-
ed for the majority of personal income throughout the period, aver-
aging 80 percent. In contrast, about 68 percent of U.S. persona 1 in-
come is accounted for by wages and salaries. Proprietor income as a
share of total personal income has declined somewhat; while that of
dividends, interest, and rent has increased modestly. The share ac-
counted for by transfer p~yments has increased substantially but still
18
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TABLE 4. PERSONAL INCOME BY MAJOR COMPONENT:
ALASKA, SELECTED YEARS 1960-1978
(millions of current dollars)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1978
COMPONENT $ % Total $ % Total $ % Total $ % Total $ % Total
Wages~& Salary 567.9 84. l 778.2 88.8 1293.9 84.7 3620 85.0 3954.9 80.6
Private, Total 281.5 41.7 463.2 52.8 773. l 50.6 2771 65. 1 2907.2 59.2
Mining 10.3 1.5 14.3 1.6 54.2 3.5 116 2.7 248.4 5. l
__, Contract Const~uction 77.3 11. 5 98.0 11.2 140.2 9.2 1095 25.7 537.8 11.0
1.0 Manufacturing 47. l 7.0 59.7 6.8 90.9 5.9 161 3.8 260.9 5.3
Fisheries 17.7 2.6 22.9 2.6 31.4 2. l 46.2 1.1 100.5 2.0
Forest Produdts 8.4 1.2 22.8 2.6 38.6 2.5 64.8 1.5 50.0 1.0
Suppor:t Sector . 142. l 21. l 265.3 30.3 457.4 29.9 1364 32.0 1817.0 37.0
Government 286.6 42.5 376.0 42.9 593.6 38.8 993 23.3 1301.8 26.5
Federal Civilian 104.7 '15. 5 137.6 15.7 195. l 12.8 308 7.2 383.2 7.8
Military 136.0 20. 1 143.9 16.4 225.7 14.8 258 6. 1 287.5 5.9
State & Local 45.9 6.8 94.4 10.8 172.9 11.3 427 10.0 631.0 12.9
Proprietors' Income 50. 1 7.4 62. 1 7. 1 73.9 4.8 143 3.4 260.5 5.3
Dividend, Interest '& Rent 33.0 4.9 52. 1 5.9 81.4 5.3 220 5.2 333.4 6.8
Transfer Payments 24.0 3.6 34.2 3.9 79.3 5.2 274 6.4 358.3 7.3
TOTAL 675.0 100.0 876.6 100.0 1528.5 100.0 4257 100.0 3907. l 100.0
Less
Cont. for Soc. Ins. 11.0 22.3 49.2 172.0 223.5
Residence Adj. 31.5 45.9 67. l 637.0 314.6
Resident Personal Income 632.5 900.2 1412.2 3447.0 4369.0
Table 4 Notes
SOURCE: Major components of the table are obtained from U. S. De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis reports of personal
income by state. Wages and salary figures (row 1) include wage and
salary plus other labor income components of personal income. Except
for 1960, the private, total row and subcomponents thereunder, contain
wage and sa 1 ary income, other 1 abor income, and proprietors' income.
Total income is the sum of the wages and salary row plus proprietors•
income; dividends, interest and rents; and transfer payments. Resi-
dent personal income is equal to total income less contribution for
. social insurance and the residence adjustment.
20
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remains well below the national figure of 12.6 percent. The data also
generally confirm the relative changes in the composition of industry
activity that were observed in the employment data.
The growth of aggregate personal income in Table 4 reflects not only
aggregate growth of production but also the influence of inflation.
Table 5 presents aggregate personal income in both current and
constant dollars. Growth of constant dollar personal income has been
significant and has averaged 7.8 percent per year. During the 1974-
1977 period, the growth was even more dramatic at 11.8 percent in real
terms. The combined effects of inflation and the plateauing of eco-
nomic activity following completion of pipeline construction have re-
sulted in a slight decline in real personal income in 1978.
There are two other dimensions of personal income that are particular-
ly important in assessing individual economic well-being: per capita
income and the distribution of income. Table 5 includes data on the
growth of per capita personal income in real and current doTlars.
Real per capita income from 1960-1973 grew at an average annual rate
of 4 percent. The 1973-1978 period, encompassing pipeline construe-
tion and the post-boom readjustment, shows rapid expansion until 1976
and then a substantial drop during 1977 and 1978. The net growth over
the period is only 2 percent per year. Two points are worth noting in
b ' this respect. First, the rapid expansion of activity occurred during
. _,-------·----~---~;~~riod -·of high national inflation and was of sufficient magnitude to
[
[ 21
1960
1965
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
TABLE 5. ALASKA RESIDENT ADJUSTED PERSONAL INCOME
IN CURRENT AND CONSTANT 1979 DOLLARS
1960, 1965, and 1970-1978
Mi 11 i ens of Do 11 ars of
Personal Income, Total Per Capita Personal Income
Current $ Constant 1979 $ Current $ Constant 1979 $
632.5 1,470.6 2,797 6,503
858.4 1,982.8 3' 168 7,318
1,411.9 2,700.3 4,644 8,882
1,557.2 2,954.8 4,939 9,372
1,698.5 3,036.4 5,234 9,631
2,001.5 3,570.0 6,046 10,784
2,436.7 3,822.9 7,138 11 , 199
3,527.7 4,493.5 9,673 12,321
4, 194.8 5,421.4 10,274 13,278
4,313.4 5,346.5 10,455 12,959
4,369.0 4,875.2 10,849 12,106
Average Annual Percent Growth
11.3 7.8 6.9 3.5
~~soi:JReE-~. -e-urrent-do~l~l~ar-p~-rs-onal-and-per-cap-tta--i-ncome-from-~S--:--Departme-n t
of Commerce~ Bureau of Economic Analysis. Deflated by Anchorage
Consumer Price Index, U.S. Department of Labor.
22
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lead to additional t'egional inflation in the Alaska economy. Thus,
[ the real value of per capita income growth was greatly diminished.
[
Second, the rapid expansion of total economic activity had only a min-
imal effect in raising per capita income, again reflecting the ease of
[ entry into the Alaska labor market.
[ Data on the distribution of personal income are not available for re-
[
cent years, but it is instructive to look at the pattern of wages over
time. Table 6 presents data on relative wages, by industry, for se-
[ lected years over the 1965-1978 period.
[ The numbers reflect the ratio of the average monthly wage for the re-
[
spective industry divided by the average monthly wage for all nonagri-
cul tura 1 wage and sa 1 ary emp 1 oyment. The data must be interpreted
[ with caution since several factors are at work that may account for
year-to-year variability. First, the average monthly wage data re-
[ fleet both straight time and overtime earnings and are thus sensitive
[ to variation in the ratio of straight time to overtime work.
[ Second, the average monthly wage is computed by dividing total wages
by average monthly employment; and average monthly employment, in
[ turn, reflects both full-and part-time work. Thus, the employment
[ data are only an approximation of man hours worked. We are also
looking at fairly aggregate data. Some of the variation within indus-
l ----------
tries may be accounted for by changes in composition of activity with-
~--~------------------
. . .
in the broad industry classifications.
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TABLE 6. DISTRIBUTION OF RELATIVE WAGE RATES,
BY INDUSTRY, FOR ALASKA,
SELECTED YEARS, 1965-1978
Industry 1965 1970 1976
Total Nonagriculture Wage and Salary 100 100 100
Mining 147 164 140
Contract Construction 165 169 210
Manufacturing 106 99 73
Food Processing 97 78 55
Logging, Lumber, and Pulp 115 124 96
Other Manufacturing 112 110 83
Transportation, Communication,
and Public Utilities 115 114 105
Wholesale Trade 127 117 94
Retail Trade 78 70 50
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 88 81 62
Services 74 72 78
Government 91 97 74
Federal 91 100 70
State 91 96 79
Local 91 93 72
1978
100
193
157
93
71
119
109
128
111
62
81
75
97
94
111
89
SOURCE: Computed from average monthly wage data from the Statistical
. Quarterly(Ala~!<{l.~ Qgpg,rt!R~nt .. Qf Lg,bJlr), sele.ct.edu.y:ear:~ ...
Relative wages are the respective industry wage divided by
the average wage for all industries x 100.
24
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The data first indicate the growing disparity of average wage rates,
which would suggest a trend toward a less equal distribution of in-
come. More significant are the changes that occurred at the peak of
pipeline construction in 1976. Major distortions in the structure of
wages are present, and this suggests that the distribution of benefits
during a boom is not uniform, but rather that a small segment of the
economy appears to reap a large proportion of the gains. This feature
of boom economics is further demonstrated by an analysis of changes in
real wages over the 1973-1976 period.
Table 7 shows average monthly wages, by broad industry classification,
deflated by the Anchorage consumer price index (CPI). Use of the
Anchorage CPI is dictated because there is no statewide index. Hence,
the deflation is subject to some error since price changes are not
uniform throughout Alaska. As an approximation, however, the data are
adequate.
It is clear that drastic differences exist among industries and that
the economic benefits of rapid economic expansion tend to be concen-
trated in a select few industries. A major portion of income implied
in the growth of construction wages was also earned by nonresidents or
temporary resident employees. With the exception of business ser-
vices, all components of the support sector and government badly lag-
ged the average growth of wages and, implicitly, relative income.
____ ~:~e_ral government and finance, insurance, and real __ ~~-~·=rt:~--~~~---~~ge~-~-
actually declined_
25
TABLE 7. CHANGE IN REAL AVERAGE MONTHLY WAGE
1973-1976, ALASKA (1973 DOLLARS)
Average Wage Ayerage Wage
Industry 1973 1976
Total Nonagriculture
Wage and Salary $1,006 $1 ,424
Oil and Gas Mining 1 '661 2,068
Contract Construction 1,635 2,985
Manufacturing 961 1 ,041
Transportation,
Communication~ and
Public Utilities 1 , 141 1,494
Wholesale Trade 1,177 1 ,341
Retail Trade 687 709
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate 897 884
Services 751 1 , 107
Hotels, Motels, Lodging 527 537
Business Services 732 1, 706
Government 1,024 1,047
Federal 1,062 1, 002
State 992 1,132
Local 1,003 1,024
Average Wage
Percent Change
12.3%
7.6
22.2
2.7
9.4
4.4
1.1
-0.5
13.8
0.6
32.6
0.7
-1. 9
4.5
0.7
SOURCE: Computed from· average monthly wage data, Statistical Quarterly
(Alaska Department of Labor), selected years.
26
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While much of the inflation that occurred during the period is attri-
butable to national inflation, significant regional inflation result-
ing from pipeline construction activity also occurred. Prior to pipe-
line construction, the Anchorage CPI had been growing at a less rapid
rate than the U.S. CPI. However, during pipeline construction, this
relationship was reversed, and the Anchorage CPI grew more rapidly.
After the pipeline, however, the inflation rate in Anchorage again
fell below that of the United States. Except for periods of relative
boom in Alaska, consumer prices have tended to rise noticeably slower
in Anchorage than outside Alaska. Over the long run, this will tend
to narrow price differentials between Alaska and the lower 48 states.
Table 8 presents relative rates of growth in the Anchorage and United
States CPis for selected years, and clearly illustrates this pattern.
As one final indication of income distribution patterns, a distribu-
tion relating percentage of total wage and salary income to percentage
of employment has been constructed for 1965 and 1978 (see Figure 1).
The di stri but ion was constructed by ranking industries according to
average monthly wage. The percentage of total employment and total
wage income accounted for by the respective industry was then comput-
ed. The cumulative employment and income percentages were then plot-
ted, yielding the typical Lorenz-type distribution figure.
A comparison of the two distributions reveals a clear shift toward a
less uniform distribution of income. This shift is probably accounted
--------------------· -
for by two factors. First, as indicated earlier, there has been a
27
TABLE 8. RATES OF CHANGE FOR THE ANCHORAGE
AND U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
SELECTED YEARS, 1960-1981
1960-1970 1970-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77
Anchorage 1.8 4. 1 13.3 12.3 6.5 5.8
United States 2.8 5.6 12.0 7.6 5.3 6.5
1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81
Anchorage 6.3 9.4 8.9 7.5
United States 7.7 11.5 13.0 10.7
-
SOURCE: Derived from t~e Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on Anchorage
and United States CPis.
28
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Pe·r-cent of
FIGURE 1. DISTRIBUTION OF WAGE-AND SALARY INCOME
ALASKA, 1965 and 1978
100.....,..
90------------·····--·---· ------------------·· .... ·-·· ··----··-·-···. . .
BO-·· ' L . ~
I
I
70-. ···---------· .i
1978
6o--· --· ·· · ··· · -· ---·· --·-····· · · ·
-:
' !
Hage & Salary 50-
Income
·----.. -----------~·-....... I i
f
!
i
4o-~-.. ---------·------···--·--··--·--·I
!
I
i
---. -----------------' i
r
l
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i
I ...... ·I
----···-------------·······-· ---------·-··· ------·-····-··---··-.-I . ...... ~ .. : : ~ . . i . -···--"---•.. -··-··--·--·-..
. . : ----·-·-··· _: ____ --~------~ . . . . ... .. .. -.. .. i . ' . _-·_.r -_ .... i
80 90 100
0 .. 1.· ___ :~~~~----=-=··-~ .l.. . . -l ..... J -~ ;::_ __ L ... -~ J
10 20 30 40 50 -~ 60 . 70
Percent of Employment
---==~---------
SOURCE: See text.
29
sizable increase in the share of total activity accounted for by sup-
port sector industries, and these industries generally have lower than
average wage rates. Second, there has been a substantia 1 growth in
the range of relative wages between industries over time.
In summary, rea 1 persona 1 income has shown sustained growth over the
entire 1960-1978 period, both in aggregate and per capita terms. The
growth has not been uniformly distributed, however, and the wage com-
ponent has become less uniform over time. This was particularly evi-
dent during pipeline construction and supports the hypothesis that the
benefits of pipeline construction were largely concentrated in a few
sectors.
POPULATION
The remaining dimension of growth to be considered is population.
Changes in population are divided into two components, natural in-
crease (or decrease) and in/out-migration. Natural population growth
results from an excess bf births over deaths and is, hence, determined
by birth and death rates.
Alaska exhibits both the highest birth rate and the lowest death rate
in the United States; and as a result, the rate of natural population
increase is the highest in the United States. This phenomenon is
largely accounted for by the relative youthfulness of the population,
with oy~r~34 percen! of. tb_e E()P~.l(i~!_()n .. ~~!\to/~l:!ll_tb~. ~9.~.~-~.! 14 and 30.
This age group has· both the highest fert i 1 i ty rate and the 1 owest
death rat-e.
30
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Net migration (in-migration minus out~migration) is the second factor
contributing to population change. Many factors influence the mi gra-
tion decision; but for the Alaska case, it appears that (with the
exception of military-related migration) migration occurs largely in
response to economic opportunity. In the aggregate, relative rates of
unemployment and relative wage differentials in Alaska and elsewhere
should be important in determining the migration decision. At the
individual level, the economic component of the decision is related to
the expected gain resulting from the move. Basically, this is the ex-
pected wage differential times the probability of getting a job, less
the cost of making the change. Thus, either a change in relative wage
rates or relative employment opportunities can influence the decision.
That migration is sensitive to economic opportunity is clearly demon-
strated b¥ patterns of migration that occur during and after pipeline
construction. Data summarizing population and changes in population
for Alaska for the years 1965 through 1978 are presented in Table 9.
Both the relative stability of natural increase and the volatility of
net migration are clear. Natural increase has averaged about 1.5 per-
cent per year; while large variations, even in pre-pipeline years, are
evident in the ·net migration component.
Table 10 presents the age distribution of Alaska in juxtaposition to
the overall U.S. age distribution. As would be expected, the middle
age groups are significantly larger in Alaska than for the United
------·---------------------------~------~ -------------------
States as a whol-e; almost 34 percent of the Alaska population is
31
Year
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
TABLE 9. ALASKA POPULATION AND COMPONENTS
OF CHANGE: 1965-1978
(thousands)
Total Natural Increase Total Change
265.2 5.7 10.2
271.5 5.3 6.3
277.9 5.0 6.4
284.9 5. 1 7.0
294.6 5.6 9.7
302.4 6. 1 7.8
312.9 5.9 10.6
324.3 5.5 11.4
330.4 5. 1 6. 1
351.2 5.6 20.8
404.6 5.9 53.4
413.3 6.3 8.7
411.2 6.8 -2. 1
407.0 6.7 -4.3
406.2 7.4 .8
400.5* -5.7
Net Migration
4.5
1.0
1.4
1.9
4. 1
1.7
4.7
5.9
0.9
15.2
47.5
2.4
-8.9
-11.0
-8.2
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*U.S. Census figure for 1980, so comparability is more difficult.
[
[
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor
~ ~ ""~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~ "~ b ..
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TABLE 10
ALASKA POPULATION BY AGE, 1980
Alaska Age U.S. Age
Distribution Distribution
Age Cohort Total (%of Total) (%of Total)
0 - 4 38,777 9.68 7.21
5 -9 84,917 8.72 7.37
10 -14 34,166 8.53 8.05
15 -19 36,980 9.23 9.34
20 -24 45,058 11.25 9.40
25 -29 48,452 12.10 7.29
30 -34 41,916 10.46 7.75
35 -39 31,182 7.79 6.16
40 -44 22,570 5.63 5.15
45 -49 18,355 4.58 4.89
50 -54 15,801 3.95 5.16
55 -59 12,592 3.14 5.13
60 -64 8,095 2.02 4.45
65 + 11,530 2.88 11.28
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1980 Census of Population: Age,
Sex, Race, and Spanish Origin by Regions, Divisions and States:
1980, PC 80-S1-1, p. 4-5.
-b--~------~---~-------~~-~
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L 33
between ages 20 and 35, where the comparable figure for the United
States is less than 25 percent. This age group is extremely mobile,
and accounts for a good deal of the migration that occurred during the
pipeline boom.
In summary, Alaska•s natural population growth is substantially above
that of the nation as a whole. Furthermore, the response of migration
to economic opportunity is clearly evident. Once again, this empha-
sizes the openness of the Alaska labor market.
The Anchorage Census Division
Anchorage has occupied a central role in Alaska 1 s growth since state-
hood. It has emerged as a key transportation and distribution center,
as well as assuming a dominant role in the growth of other support
sector activity. The area has also become the state center for petro-
leum industry administrative facilities. Its importance as a seat of
Federal government activity in Alaska has been supplemented by rapid
growth of state and local government. Because of the size of the
Anchorage economy, it tends to reflect total state activity as well as
to impact upon total economic activity in Alaska. It is because of
its central place in the Alaskan economy that economic activity remote
from Anchorage is often significantly tied to Anchorage.
EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Direct measures of p~()ducti on for the ~nc:_~~-r~g~ ~c:~n_Oill.Y are not
available. Neither is Anchorage a commodity producer in which resource-
based activity is directly important to total economic activity. This
34
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makes it particularly important to consider the structure and growth
of employment for Anchorage. While such data are only partially re-
flective of total production, they do provide meaningful insights into
changes that have occurred.
Summary data on Anchorage employment, by broad industry classifica-
tion, for 1965 through 1978, are presented in Table 11. Overall
employment has grown at about 7.3 percent per year, and the rate of
growth exceeded the statewide rate of 6. 7 percent. While growth has
generally been consistently upward, it accelerated substantially dur-
ing pipeline construction. Since then, growth of employment has mod-
erated; but the level of employment still exceeds that achieved during
the period of pipeline construction. It is also worth noting that, in
contrast to other parts of the state where pipeline construction play-
ed a significant role in the expansion of activity, Anchorage growth
during this period occurred more uniformly throughout most sectors,
reflecting the region's role as a support center.
Several industries expanded more rapidly than the growth of total em-
ployment, including: mining (13.3 percent); transportation, communica-
tions, and public utilities (8.9 percent); wholesale-retail trade (9.4
percent); finance, insurance, and real estate (11.0) percent; services
(11.5 percent); and state and local government (10.5 percent). Con-
struction, manufacturing, and federal government growth rates were all
35
TABLE 1'1. ANCHORAGE NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY
EMPLOYMENT, SELECTED YEARS
(thousands)
1965 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978
~ ! ~ ! ~ ! ~ ! ~ ! ~ ! ~ 61
Total NonAgrt
!!.
Wage & Sal,ry
30.678 100.0 34.019 100.0 42.019 100.0 48.252 100.0 58.713 100.0 73.733 100.0 76.893 100,0 Employment!
I
Mining I 0.371 1.2 0.781 2.3 0.958 2.3 0.806 1.7 1.036 1.8 1.409 1.9 1.874 2.4
I Contract 1
3.126 10.2 2.438 7.2 3.514 8.4 4.272 8.9 5.882 10.0 7.587 10.3 6.431 Constructicm 8.4
w
0"1 "'""'"'"''"! o. 791 2.6 0.834 2.5 1.018 2.4 1. 215 2.5 1. 379 2.3 1.629 2.2 1. 683 2.2
Transportati n,
Communications,
and Utilities 2.618 8.5 3.046 9.0 3.907 9.3 4.522 9.4 5.583 9.5 7.409 10.0 7.950 10.3
Wholesale-Re1ail 5.279 17.2 6.552 19.3 8.617 20.5 9.948 . 20.6 12.298 20.9 15.958 21.6. 16.865 21.9
I
Finance, Insor-
ance and Rea 1
Estate j 1.295 4.2 1.452 4.3 1.980 4.7 2.415 5.0 3.151 5,4 4.257 5.8 5,019 6.5
Servic~s
I
3.767 12.3 4.652 13.7 6.403 15.2 7.725 16.0 10.119 17.2 15.450 21.0 15.538 20.2
Federal I Government j 9.394 30.6 9.216 27.1 9.534 22.7 9.435 19.6 9.925 16.9 9,813 13.3 9.896 12.9
I State & Loca~
Government I 4.001 13.0 5.022 14.8 6.036 14.4 7.839 16.2 9.242 15.7 9.465 12.8 11.266 14.7
SOURCE: st1tistical guarterll (Alaska Department of Labor), various years.
I
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The growth of the support sector i 11 ustrates the maturing of the
Anchorage economy as was also observed at the statewide level. A
comparison of statewide and Anchorage support sector employment as a
percent of total employment also indicates the role of Anchorage as a
trade, distribution, service, and financial center for the state as a
whole. Employment as a percentage of total Anchorage employment con-
siderably exceeds comparable figures at a statewide level in trade,
finance, and services. For Anchorage, these industries accounted for
48.6 percent of total employment in 1978; whereas for the state as a
whole the figure is only 39.5 percent. The share of total employment
accounted for by the federal government in Anchorage is also above the
state proportion, and over 50 percent of total federal government em-
ployment in Alaska is based in Anchorage.
The data on labor force and unemployment also illustrates the openness
of the Anchorage economy (see Table 12). Over the period from 1970
through 1979, unemp 1 oyment averaged 7. 4 percent. Whi 1 e temporarily
dropping during pipeline construction, the unemployment rate has risen
again to historic levels in the years since completion of the pipe-
line, averaging 7.7 percent for 1978 and 1979. Hence, while rapid
expansion of employment opportunities may temporarily reduce unemploy-
[ _________ me_nt, the effects are clearly short-run.
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PERSONAL INCOME
Total and per capita personal income for Anchorage are shown in Table
- ------------------------------~-~------------------------------------~---~---~------------~-----------------------------------------------------
13, both in current and constant (1978) dollars. In current dollars,
37
TABLE 12. ANCHORAGE LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT, 1970-1978
Year Employment Labor Force Unemployment Unemployment
1970 45,757 49,024 3,267 6.7%
1971 49,484 53,902 4,418 8.2
1972 52,395 57,535 5' 140 8.9
1973 54,299 60' 117 5,818 9.7
1974 54,691 58,661 3,970 6.8
1975 64,721 68,481 3,760 5.5
1976 68,420 73,436 5,016 6.8
1977 79,023 84,513 5,490 6.5
1978 74,819 81,551 6,732 8.3
1979 75,424 81 '120 5,696 7.0
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor, Labor Force Estimates by Area,
selected years.
both total and per capita personal income have grown every year (at
average annual rate of 14.4 percent and 10.0 percent, respectively)
with considerable increases in the rate occurring during pipeline con-
struction. Much of the growth has been negated by inflation, however.
In rea 1 terms, tota 1 incomes grew at 8. 2 percent over the period;
while per capita income grew at 4.1 percent. However, both real
total and per capita personal income have declined slightly since
peaks reached during pipeline construction. It is also worth noting
that the growth rates of Anchorage personal income exceeded those of
Rate
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the state for comparable periods. ~
·-------·--·-··-·-···-·---····------·--·-·--·-·--·----;------·--·-·-------·-~···----. -·-·-·---------··--·---------·------·--··---------------------··--h-
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1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
TABLE 13. ANCHORAGE PERSONAL INCOME
1965-1978
Current Dollars Constant.(l978) Dollars
Total Total
(mi 11 ions) Per Capita (millions) Per Capita
371 3,412 767 7,056
398 3,595 722 7' 153
462 4,061 900 7,911
502 4,228 953 8,027
570 4,622 1,035 8,391
635 4,997 1 • 109 8,730
733 5,469 1 ,248 9,313
800 5,631 1, 333 9,383
880 6,031 1 '385 9,490
1,114 7,402 1,550 10,299
1 • 625 . 10,070 2,011 12,463
1,903 10,579 2,212 12,296
2' 109 11 '592 2,317 12,736
2' 128 11 ,839 2' 128 11 ,839
Average Annual Percent Growth
14.4% 10.0% 8.2% 4.1%
SOURCE: Bureau ofEc;onomjc Anal.ys.is, U.S .. Department of.Comme-r-Ge-.
39
POPULATION
Population for Anchorage grew from 102.3 thousand in 1965 to 185.5
thousand in 1978, at an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent (see
Table 14). This was substantially in excess of the statewide growth
rate of 3.4 percent. As a result, the Anchorage share of total state
population rose from 38.6 percent in 1965 to 45.6 percent in 1978.
From 1965 to 1969, the Anchorage and statewide populations grew at
about the same rate; while for 1969 through the start of pipeline
construction, the population of Anchorage grew at about 6 percent.
During this period, the state as a who 1 e grew at about 3. 6 percent.
Both the state and Anchorage populations grew rapidly during the 1974
through 1976 period (17.7 percent and 20.1 percent, respectively), but
the Anchorage population did not peak until 1977; whereas the state~
wide population reached a peak in 1976. However, the decline in
Anchorage population has been proportionately greater than that for
the state as a whole. In 1978, statewide population was 6.3 thousand
below the pipeline peak; while the Anchorage population was 10.3 thou-
sand below its peak.
In summary, the Anchorage economy has shown substantial growth over
the entire period reviewed. Steady diversification of the economy is
evident, and the role of Anchorage as an economic center for the state
is clear. Furthermore, economic activity remote from Anchorage is
neverthe 1 ess often significant for the Anchorage economy because of
Anchorage's central role.
40
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*U.S. Census data.
SOURCE:
TABLE 14. ANCHORAGE POPULATION
1965-1980
(thousands)
1965 102.3
1966 105.9
1967 107.8
1968 111.6
1969 114.2
1970 126.3
1971 135.8
1972 144.2
1973 149.4
1974 153. 1
1975 177.8
1976 185.2
1977 195.8
1978 -185.5
1980 173.9*
41
The Aleutian Islands Census Division
The Aleutian Islands Census Division encompasses all of the Aleutian
Islands, the Pribilof Islands, and the Alaska Peninsula from Port
Heiden west. This is the definition used by the 1970 Census and the
Alaska Department of Labor Statistical Quarterly (the 1980 Census used
a slightly different definition).
The economy of the Aleutian Islands Census Division in no sense
reflects a cohesive, functional economic area. This economic area is
composed of several relatively isolated communities and Federal gov-
ernment military installations. Private sector activity is almost
totally dependent upon utilization of the abundant fish resources and
includes both harvesting and processing. Harvesting of fur seals on
St. Paul Island is also an important local activity. Minor amounts of
sheep ranching also occur in the region. Military installations at
Shemya and Adak, as well as elsewhere in the region, swell the popu-
lation, employment, and income figures for the census division but
have no perceptible links with other economic units within the census
division.
PRODUCTION
Basic sector private production is mostly composed of fisheries-
related activity. Both commercial fishing and processing are widely
dispersed throughout the region, although processing is more highly
---···~-·-.-~~~~~c_entr:.~-t~~~~~-~.fl.~_e_Ci~!-':!'_r:l_e~rt~_?n _o_!_.!-.b~ census division. Tab 1 es 15
through 17 provide summary data on commercial fishing. In Table 15
the salmon, shellfish, total catch, and value of catch to fishermen
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Year
1976
1973
1970
TABLE 15. CATCH AND VALUE TO FISHERMEN,
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION
1970 TO 1976, SELECTED YEARS
(catch in million pounds; value in million dollars)
Salmon Shellfish TotaP
Pounds Value Pounds Value Pounds Value
20.910 7.155 154. 262 61. 032 175.921 69.029
6.993 1. 815 60.966 25.135 71. 261 29.243
28.695 5.102 44.082 9.108 74.540 14.793
1 Totals include minor amounts of other fish. There is also an unrecon-
ciled discrepancy for the weight of shellfish in Table 14 and Table 15 for
1973.
SOURCE: Alaska Catch and Production (Alaska Department of Fish and Game,
Division of Commercial Fisheries), selected years. Data prior to
1970 not available on a comparable basis.
-C------------------~--------~---.---~-----~---------------~--------~~ --~ -~ ---~--~ ------~-----~--
[
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Year
1962
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
TABLE 16. SHELLFISH HARVEST, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
CENSUS DIVISION, 1962, 1965-1976
(millions of pounds)
Kingcrab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp
6.840
50.704 .017
63.993 . 025 .000 .000
61.990 .000 .003 . 000
53.060 . 953 . 142 4.375
39.895 1. 380 1. 662 2.657
35.408 .717 3.558 4.399
53.997 .022 2.307 5.228
52.957 . 000 4.054 14.891
56.620 . 201 6.183 18.947
Total
6.840
50.717
64.018
61.993
58.530
45.594
44.082
61.554
71.902
81.951
1974 66.812 . 061
1975 70.002 .004
1976 82.943 .000
13.998
12.592
30.202
31.245
20.504
41.117
112.116
103.102
154.262
SOURCE: Alaska Catch and Production: Commercial Fisheries Statistics
(Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial
Fisheri~s), various years. Areas included are South Alaska
Peninsula, Aleutians East-Unalaska, Aleutians West-Adak,
and Bering Sea. These boundaries are not strictly comparable
to the census division boundaries, but are adequate for pres-
ent purposes.
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TABLE 17. SHELLFISH HARVEST, BY AREA,
SELECTED YEARS 1962 -1976
(millions of pounds)
South Peninsula
Year King Crab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp Total
1967 16.9 .0 16.9
1972 4.2 3.9 14.8 22.9
1976 . 7 7.3 37.4 45.4
Aleutians East-Unalaska
Year King Crab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp Total
1967 27.1 27. 1
1972 10.7 .0 . 1 10.8
1976 11.4 .5 3.7 15.6
Aleutians West-Adak
Year King Crab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp Total
1967 12.5 12.5
1972 16.2 16.2
1976 .4 . 1 .5
Bering Sea
Year King Crab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp Total
1967 4.4 4.4
1972 21.9 . 1 22.0
1976 70.4 22.3 92.7
Area Totals
s. Peninsula Aleutians-E. Aleutians-W. Bering Sea Total
Year Total % Total % Total % Total % ---
. 1967 16.9 27.8 27. 1 44.5 12.5 20.5 4.4 7.2 60.9
1972 22.9 31.8 10.8 15.0 16.2 22.5 22.0 30.6 71.9
1976 45.4 29.4 15.6 10. 1 .5 . 3 92.7 60. 1 154.2
SOURCE: --Alaska Catch~a-,nd-Production---(Alas-ka Department of~ fish-and-~--------
Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries), selected years.
47
are indicated for recent years. The data clearly show the rapid
increase in both the value and volume of shellfish harvested in the
region.
A longer-run view of shellfish harvest is shown in Table 16 and
highlights the growth in the diversity of shellfish caught. In par-
ticular, both tanner crab and shrimp have provided much of the growth
in the shellfish harvest, helping to offset significant declines in
king crab catches that occurred during the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Finally, Table 17 provides data on the disparities of catch within
areas of the region and how these have changed over recent years.
Significant declines in king crab harvests in all areas are noted,
with the exception of the Bering Sea which has more than offset the
declines in other areas. Tanner crab and shrimp have been increas-
ingly important for the South Peninsula and Aleutian-East areas.
In short, major changes in the pattern of harvests, both regionally
and by species, have occurred. The South Peninsula and Bering Sea
areas show overall gains and the Aleutian-East and Aleutian West areas
show net declines. These patterns are a 1 so indicated by the percen-
tage shares of total shellfish harvest shown in Table 17.
A second, important dimension of understanding commercial fishing in
the Aleutian economy is an analysis of who does the fishing. Data on
-~-___ . ___ tll_i.LR.Q.int.~L~ _ fr:£gm~o.t~ry __ 9mL i~_R.r~~~o_t~d iQ_I91:J 1 e __ l~~-----Ihe ki_og __ ~rg!J~--
48
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TABLE 18. RESIDENCE OF BOATS AND GEAR LICENSE
HOLDERS FISHING THE ALEUTIANS
Proportion of King Crab
Catch Value by Boat Residence
Proportion of Salmon Catch by
Residence of Gear License Holder
Place Percentage Place Percentage
Kodiak 26.8 Kodiak 41.5
Alaska Peninsula 4.0 Aleutians 20.0
Dutch Harbor 4.3 South Central Alaska 3.2
Out of State 64.9 Anchorage 2.6
SOURCE:
Other Alaska 7. 1
Non-resident 19.2
Unknown 6.5
King Crab: Western Alaska King Crab: Draft Fishery Management
Plan (North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage;
Council Review Draft, May 1980). Derived from data on page 30.
Salmon: Derived from Table 9-8, Measuring The Socioeconomic
Impacts of Alaska's Fisheries, by George W. Rogers, et al,
(Institute of Social and Economic Research; April 1980).
and shellfish industry tends to be dominated by nonresident boats and
crews, and the area of concentration for these vessels is the Bering
Sea. Much of the remainder of the catch is accounted for by Kodiak-
based boats.
49
The information on the salmon harvest is even less precise since the
region covered is southwest Alaska (the Aleutian Census Division plus
Kodiak). It is assumed, with some uncertainty, that the regional pro-
portions apply to the Aleutians.
The overall picture that emerges is one in which the bulk of the
commercial fishing in the Aleutians is carried out by fishermen and
vessels which are not resident to the Aleutians. More precise infor-
mation would be desirable but is simply not available.
A final dimension of commercial fishing to be considered is that of
employment. No systematic, periodic estimates of commercial fishing
employment are made for the Aleutians (nor for the rest of the State).
Estimates for the 1969 through 1976 period, however, have been com-
piled for the State and regions (Rogers, 1980) and in turn have been
used to estimate employment in the Aleutians for 1978. This has
resulted in an estimate of 756 for average annual employment in com-
mercial fishing. Of these, 251 are estimated to be residents of the
Aleutian Islands Census Division.
The procedure used to develop these estimates was to compute the ratio
of the 1978 to 1976 catch, by species (salmon, shellfish), and apply
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this ratio to ~he Rogers• estimates ohf employm~nt f~r 1976. hSince his [
employment est1mate was for the sout west reg1on, 1t was t en neces-
-· _ ____ _ ____ ?_cl.fY_"t,Q._i!]J9fa_t_~_t.Q_1h~ /il_~~t.iCiD? _1h_~ ... t.Q1:E-l __ ~fl!PJ.QYI11~D:L thlj?_§_s_t_im~t._e_d .. ___ _ _ ---·-_b ...
This was accomplished by apportioning total employment on the basis of
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Aleutian to total southwest region catch and implies uniform produc-
tivity throughout the southwest region. The result of these manipu-
lations is an estimate of total Aleutian Islands commercial fishing
employment. The estimate of resident employment was developed using
ratios presented in Tab 1 e 18. It goes without saying that these
estimates of employment are very approximate and subject to consid-
erable error.
The second major component of the fishing industry in the Aleutians is
processing. The present structure of the processing industry reflects
a mix of shore-based and floating processors engaged in canning and
freezing. The trend is toward freezing an increasing proportion of
the catch.
A tally of processor permits for 1980 compiled from Alaska Department
of Fish and Game records indicates seven shore-based faci 1 it i es at
Dutch Harbor; two at Sand Point; and one each at King Cove, False
Pass, Squaw Harbor, and Port Moller. Some of these permits may cover
firms that are only buying fish for transshipment.
Several floating processor permits are held as well: Dutch Harbor (4),
Sand Point (1), and ~alse Pass (1). In addition, some 31 permits are
he 1 d that a 11 ow for floating processors to operate throughout the
region. Not all permit holders necessarily utilize their permits, and
several may actually be nothing more than buyers. It is clear, how-
-------.-,-
ever, that proces~in~ is geographically well dispersed throughout the
AlE;!utians.
51
Employment data for processing is available for the Aleutians Census
Division from the Statistical Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor).
For 1978, 1,621 was the average annual employment in manufacturing,
which for the Aleutians is largely synonymous with fish processing.
As is the case with commercial fishing, it is important to determine
what proportion of the employment was held by residents of the region.
Data regarding this question are fragmentary. In conversations with
industry and local government people, it was estimated that somewhere
between 5 and 15 percent of the employment was held by residents. A
second source of information is The Recommended Community Deve 1 opment
Plan: City of Unalaska, Alaska (Trick, Nyman, and Hayes: November
1977). According to this study, 72 out of 875 basic sector jobs
(1976) were held by residents, and these jobs were primarily in fish
processing. This would indicate that about 8.2 percent of processing
jobs were held by residents. Community profiles prepared by the
Arctic Environmental Information and Data Center for King Cove, False
Pass, and Akutan also contain data that tend to support the above
sources regarding resident to nonresident ratios.
Using what appears to be a reasonable estimate of the resident share
of processing jobs, 10 percent, then 162 of 1,621 jobs were held by
residents. The remainder (1,459) were held by nonresidents. Of
these, almost all were from outside of Alaska.
52
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Significant seasonal variation exists in processing employment,
although to a much lesser degree than is generally the case in the
sa 1 mon industry. For 1978, average employment for the four quarters
was, respectively: 1,255 (January-March), 1,782 (April-June), 1,649
(July-September), and 1, 798 (October-December). The 1 ow first quar-
ter, followed by substantial gains in the second through fourth
quarters, is typical of recent years. Available data do not indicate
how seasonal patterns may vary between residents and nonresidents.
The second e 1 ement of basic sector production in the A 1 eut i ans is
Federal government and national defense-related activity. Major
installations are located at Adak, Shemya, and Cold Bay. The largest
of these is the naval station at Adak. According to data supplied by
the Office of Information, Alaska Air Command, there are 1,781 active
duty military and civilian defense-related personnel at Adak, as well
as 1,400 dependents. These figures do not include additional civilian
personnel associated with nondefense activity such as officers• clubs,
post-exchanges, etc. Shemya and Cold Bay do not have resident depen-
dents, and military and civilian defense-related personnel number
approximately 490. Table 19 summarizes military and related federal
civilian employment data for the census division as a whole for 1978.
While the military presence is numerically large, its economic impact
[
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on the economy of the Aleutians is negligible. The units are largely
t---~--~~-~-_ __ __s_g_}_f_:-suQ_g_orting___MLQ___ the o_n_ly identifiable ties with the Aleutian or.___ __
Alaska economy are transportation services provided by Reeve Aleutian
[
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TABLE 19. MILITARY AND RELATED FEDERAL-CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
CENSUS DIVISION, 1978
Employment Wages
(thousands)
Military and Related Civilian
Employment
Military Personnel (Active Duty)
Military-Related Federal Civilian
Employment
PX and NAF (Largely Part-time)1
Other Military Related Federal
Employment
3,939 45,952
3,453 38,950
486 7,072
330 1 ,875
156 5,127
1 Post exchange and nonappropriate fund activities, including
officers• clubs, etc.
SOURCE: Numbers: Basic Economic Statistics of Alaska Census Divisions
(Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,
Division of Economic Enterprise: November 1979).
Airways (RAA) and some contract construction. One benefit that does
result from the military contracts with RAA is the feasibility of
providing more frequent air service to other communfties in the
Aleutians. Contract construction work at the military installations
is generally carried out by non-Aleutian based firms, either from
Alaska or out-of-state.
In summary, basic sector production in the Aleutians is almost en-
related activity. Fisheries activity has shown substantial growth but
54
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is still largely dominated by non-Aleutian resident participants. The
military presence, while substantial, has no significant relationships
with the rest of the census division.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND LABOR FORCE
Analysis of emp 1 oyment in the A 1 eut i ans is important for the same
reasons that it was important at the statewide level. Table 20 sum-
marizes average monthly employment for the Aleutian Census Division
for the years 1965-1978. Over the period, total employment has grown
substantially at an average annual rate of 5.9 percent. This growth
has been largely dependent upon growth of the fisheries industry and
State and local government. Employment in fish processing grew at an
average annual rate of 14.1 percent, while State and local government
grew at a rate of 8. 5 percent. Feder a 1 government emp 1 oyment, pri-
marily related to national defense, fluctuated considerably over the
period but has shown no appreciable growth. The same is true for
contract construction and transportation, communications, and pub 1 i c
utilities. The support sector components of wholesale-retail trade;
finance, insurance, and rea 1 estate; and services have a 1 so expanded
as would be expected. Finance, insurance, and real estate grew at an
average annual rate of 18. 9 percent, although much of this growth
occurred after 1973. Services grew at 22.7 percent over the period,
but this growth rate must be interpreted with caution. The data for
early years were not reported in the Statistical Quarterly (the source
f~ ' document) because of disclosure rules and, hence, were estimated. The
t------------~-----1-~-~-;e-~~-~~~~~on i~ th;s serie-~ also raises the-;u:stion of incon~is--
[ tency in the data, possibly due to classification difficulties.
55
TABLE 20. AVERAGE CIVILIAN MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION, 1965-197B
1965 1966 1967 196B 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 197B
Industry
Construction 174 54 137 125 142 195 2B5 1B7 lBl lBO 235 221 116 140
Manufacturing 292 411 422 471 349 476 657 610 675 B51 7B3 991 1130 1621
Transportation::,
Communicatiof1s,
and Utilities B3 55 51 46 57 45 61 41 93 93 B7 BB 3B 31
Wholesale Reta~l 117 13B 152 13B 134 136 125 124 142 137 14B 149 llOe lOle
Finance, Insur~nce
4e 4e 4e le 5e 7e 7e Be 7e and Real Estate 12 27 32 37 3B
Services 12e 13e lOBe 232e 26B 143 240 B2 . 47 33 20 93 150 171
Federal Government 67B 707 633 550 523 52B 574 640 704 Bl3 626 61B 569 6B2
State, Local
Government 12B 13B 157 160 174 16B 17B 206 227 257 316 330 2B7 371
Total 1 1494 1526 1714 1B35 1727 1721 217B 19B2 21B6 2473 2349 2621 2474 3155
e = estimated.
I
1 Total inicludes minor amounts of mining and miscellaneous employment for some years.
;i
SOURCE: Statistical Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor).
~I l - ' •
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[
Independent series on wholesale and retail trade are not available for
[ the entire period. For those years in which retail trade data were
[
available, there is steady growth indicated. Wholesale trade appears
to be a much higher proportion of total wholesale-retail trade than is
[ the case statewide, and this is apparently linked to· wholesale trade
activity associated with fisheries. There may also be problems with
[ the industrial classification of wholesale trade.
[ Firms may engage in both buying or processing of fish and a 1 so who 1 e-
[ saling of fish or fish products. The firm's industrial classification
would depend on which activity was of greater proportional signifi-c cance, and this may change from year-to-year. The result is that the
c who 1 esa 1 e-reta i 1 sector reflects a strong mix of basic and support
sector activity. In conjunction with possible industrial classifi-
[ cation problems, this would account for the apparent lack of growth in
this sector.
[
[ There is one significant omission in the employment data; this is
employment in commercial fishing. Such employment is not included in
[ the Statistical Quarterly data, and as indicated above, a consistent
series is not available elsewhere. Estimated commercial fishing em-
ployment for 1978, however, was 756. If we include this figure with
total reported employment of 3,155, the commercial fishing employment [ accounted for about 19 percent of total employment for 1978. Commer-
t--~--~--~-~~J~ 1 fishing p 1 us processing emp 1 oyment amounts to 61 percent of tota 1
employment.
[
[ 57
A second issue of concern relates to the residency of job holders.
Table 21 presents estimates of resident and nonresident employment for
1978. The resident/nonresident breakdown for commercial fishing and
processing has already been explained. Allocation of the remainder of
employment has been accomplished as follows: State and local govern-
ment is assumed to be resident employment, as is also the case for
transportation, communications, and public utilities; finance, insur-
ance, and real estate; and services. Federal government civilian
employment was divided between defense-related and other Federal
government activity. Defense-related employment was assigned to the
nonresident category (in the sense that incomes earned had no impact
on the Aleutian economy), while other Federal government employment
was treated as resident employment.
Retail trade was assumed to reflect resident employment. Wholesale
trade includes both resident and nonresident employment, and one-half
of the employment in wholesale was treated as resident. This division
was based on discussions of wholesale trade activity in the Aleutians
with the Alaska Department of Labor.
The final industry of concern is contract construction. In conver-
sations with several labor unions and contractors who operate in the
Aleutians, it was clear that the vast majority of construction workers
in the Aleutians are not residents of the area. Based on a synthesis
of toes~ ~QDY~~t?C!:t·i~ons~, i~t_ J"_a.s~ e~ti,na.~tec:!_ tha.t ~ Rgrt;ent ~of ~gotracJ.
58
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TABLE 21. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION
ESTIMATED RESIDENT AND NON-RESIDENT
EMPLOYMENT, 1978
Industry
Commercial Fishing
Manufacturing
Construction
Transportation,
Communication,
and Utilities
Wholesale/Retail
Finance, Insurance,
Resident
251
162
7
31
89
and Real Estate 38
Services 171
Federal Government
Civilian, Military-
Related -0-
Other Federal Government 198
State Government 88
Local Government 283
Total 1318
e = estimated.
SOURCE:
Non-Resident
505
1459
133
-o-
12
-o-
-o-
484
-o-
-o-
-o-
2593
Total
756
1621
140
38
171
484
198
88
283
3911
E------~--~--_
Commercial fishing; see text on production. Manufacturing
total from Statistical Quarterly; see text on production
------T.O-l"--allocation.--~edel"a~ go\lernment -civ-i -1-ian-mil-i-tary~related;
Table 18 .. All.other data on tables from Statistical Quarterly
(Alaska Department of Labor). For division of allocation to
resident and nonresident, see text. [
l 59
construction employment in the Aleutians was accounted for by resi-
dents. The remainder was divided as follows: Anchorage (65 percent),
southcentral Alaska (15 percent), the rest of the State (10 percent),
and non-Alaska (10 percent). While this breakdown is necessarily an
approximation, it does reflect the collective judgment of a wide
variety of participants in contract construction in the Aleutians.
Using the above de 1 i neat ion of emp 1 oyment between resident and non-
resident, it appears that just under 34 percent of the civilian
employment in the Aleutians is held by residents. The remaining 66
percent is held by nonresidents. Available data do not permit us to
estimate comparable breakdowns of employment for other years, and it
is not possible to speculate on how the ratio of resident-to-nonresi-
dent employment may have changed over time.
Summary data on labor force, unemployment, and employment for 1970-78
are presented in Table 22. It should be noted that the employment
data in this table are not consistent with the data of the previous
tables. First, the present table does not include estimates of com-
mercial fishing employment. Second, the data reflect the number of
job holders, whereas the previous tables reflect numbers of jobs. The
data are also supposed to be resident adjusted, although the resident
employment estimate is substantially above that obtained in the
previous table.
60
~--~~0-~----~--~
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- -
Of particular interest are the data on unemployment and the unemploy-
ment rate. Given the seasonal variation in total activity, the rates
are suprisingly low. This would suggest that several factors are at
work. First, a high degree of seasonal migration is present. Second,
A 1 eut ian residents may tend to drop out of the 1 abor force when
employment opportunities are not present. Third, the data include a
large proportion of government employment which tends to be seasonally
stable.
TABLE 22. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION:
CIVILIAN RESIDENT LABOR FORCE,
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1970-1975
Unemployment
Year Labor Force Employment Unemployment Rate (%)
1970 1688 1575 113 6.7
1971 2041 1930 111 5.4
1972 1880 1763 117 6.2
1973 2109 1945 164 7.8
1974 1968 1830 138 7.0
1975 2371 2207 164 6.9
1976 2302 2147 155 6. 7
1977 -2102 1964 138 6.6
1978 2343 2196 147 6.3
souRCE:-----Aras·Ra.·-raoor-Torc-e!-Estfmat:e·s oy-Arefa~-(ATaska:-·oepart:menrar·
Labor) various years.
61
,.
A 1978 survey of potential labor force and employment of the Aleut
population in the Aleutian region indicates that published data on
unemployment may considerably understate the actual situation. Table
23 presents a summary of the survey results. Of the potential labor
of 575, only 278 were employed; only 222 earned $5,000 or more for
that year; and 297 were not employed.
This implies an unemployment rate of 51.7 percent. This probably
overstates the "true" rate since only those of the potential labor
force actually employed or seeking employment should be included in
the labor force figures used to determine emgloyment rates. There is
no way to tell what proportion of the potential labor force would
actually seek employment if employment opportunities were available,
but it appears that substanial real unemployment exists that is not
reflected in published statistics.
In summary, considerable growth in employment in the Aleutians has
been evident. This has occurred mainly in response to growth of
fisheries-related activity. This growth has also led to growth of
emp 1 oyment in the support sector. Whi 1 e hi stori ca 1 data are not
available to indicate trends, nonresident employment accounts for a
dominant proportion of tota 1 emp 1 oyment. It a 1 so appears that the
Native Aleut population has not participated fully in the employment
opportunities reflected by overall growth in total employment.
---~--~·· __ ._Wb.etber~th-is_i_s_tl,y_c.ho_ic.e__o_l"-.-due-to--oU~el"-.-r-e.aso.ns--is-not-know.n-~
62
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TABLE 23. REPORT OF LABOR FORCE 1978
COMPILED BY BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS
ANCHORAGE AGENCY
a.
b.
Total Aleut population within
the Aleutian region
Total under 16 years of
age included on line 11 a 11
Total
2,139
963
Male
1,155
520
Resident Population of Working Age within the Aleutian Region
c. Total 16 years and over
(a minus b)
d. 16-24 years
e. 25-34 years
f. 35-44 years
g. 45-64 years
h. 65 years and over
i. Not in labor force (16 years
and over) Total (j+k+l+m)
j. Students (16 years and over,
including those away at
school)
k. Men, physically or mentally
disabled, retired, institu-
tionalized, etc.
1. Women for whom no child care
substitutes are available
m. Women, housewives, physically
or mentally disabled, insti-
tutionalized, etc.
n. Potential labor force (16 years
and over) (c minus i)
o. Employed, Total (p+q)
p. Employed, earning 5,000 or
more a year (all jobs)
q. Employed, earning less than
5,000 a year (all jobs)
-r~ Not employed (n minus o)
1 , 176
447
235
212
212
70
601
364
47
133
57
575
278
222
56
297
635
241
127
114
114
38
243
196
47
392
185
148
37
207
SOURCE: Tribal Specific Health Plan (Aleutian-Pribilof Islands
Association Health Department, undated).
63
Female
984
443
541
206
108
98
98
32
357
167
133
57
183
93
74
19
90
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income data for the Aleutian Census Division have been com-
piled for the years 1965-1978 and are presented in Table 24. Growth
in current do 11 ar tota 1 persona 1 income has been at a rate of about
7.4 percent per year, while per capita income has grown at about 7.2
percent per year. When measured in constant dollars, however, the
growth has been substantially less. Real per capita income grew at
1.4 percent, while real total personal income grew at 1.6 percent over
the period.
Severa 1 aspects of the data suggest that the numbers be interpreted
with caution. First, the Anchorage Consumer Price Index was used to
deflate the personal income series since no more specific index is
available. Hence, the adjustment is only approximate. Second, a
large proportion of the income is related to military and federal
civilian employment directly linked to military activity. Since this
income does not enter the Aleutian economy in any meaningful sense,
its inclusion is misleading in terms of considering overall economic
activity.
Third, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) which compiles the
data makes a resident adjustment, there is some -question as to the
validity of the adjustment. In particular, it is not clear to what
extent the adjustment captures the effects of commerical fishing and
----p~oce~~-tng ---i-ncomes-f'Jow-i ng~ o ut----0-f---the ~~eg-i-on. -F-:inall-y-,--an---ana-lys:i s ~of---
64
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1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
SOURCE:
TABLE 24. PERSONAL INCOME BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE:
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION, 1965-1978
Current Dollars Constant (1978) Dollars
Total Total
(millions) Per Capita (mill ions) Per Capita
33.951 4,721 70.207 9,763
36.093 4,735 71.818 9,422
38.886 4,727 75.750 9,208
41.688 5,256 79.149 9,979
43.677 5,484 79.296 9,956
53.671 6,627 93.763 11,577
50.655 6,447 86.255 10,978
49.968 6,580 83.267 10,965
60.849 8,235 95.746 12,958
66.084 8,280 91.949 11,520
72.717 9,250 89.995 11,448
79.765 9,932 87.638 10,912
85.734 11,619 85.734 11,619
Current dollar income figures from U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Constant dollar figures deflated
by authors, using Anchorage Consumer Price Index.
transfer payments reported for the region shows sizable amounts related
to federal military and related civilian employment that probably had
no effect on the Aleutian economy.
For these and other reasons, we have attempted to develop an estimate
E ~ ~~ .. _____ of_ p~~S_9!l~!_~i_nE~111_e __ f_or_1_9]§_ that more accurate reflects the sources
and disposition of personal income for the region. These estimates
L are shown. in Table 25.
[ 65
TA3LE 25. ALEUTifl.N"-'iSLANPS. PERSONAL INCOI"'E, 1978
BY SECTOR, COMPONENTS, AN.D GEOGRAPH~~ DISPOSITION
: .
I :.cc::,e ..
~-Support Contract Col'ir.lerci a1 · Fish Fed. Gov. Fed. Gov. State &
Sector Construction Fishing Processing Ci vi1 ian Military local Govt.
EJ\DOS£!~C~S HOUSE~OLDS:
TOi;..L f.LLOC/;."iED BY ll;DUS1RY
~!ases l. Sc.lc.ries. 3;715 0.381 0 2.353 3.022· .. 0 5.206
Other Lc.bor I nt:o;;,e· 0.6g5 0.071 0 0.440 0 0 0
Prc~rietors 1 1 nco:o.e 0.951 0.098 12.250 .0 0 ' 0 0 ... -··
u:;:..UOC.L;ED COX?QI\ElnS:
OiviC:er;Cs, lr.terHt,
;:nd Rents
Transfer hy::-.ents
C~.IT C·F R::Gl 0!\:
J.:C.C'ES L 5c.lc.ries
;.!'"rcbe:rc.pe 0 4.709 0 0 0 0 0
Scu~hcer.\.ral 0 1.087 0 0 0 0 0
F.es: cf State 0 0. 725 0 0 0 0 0
F.est cf h'or1 d 0.275 0. 725 0 21.173 5.867 1;0.584 0
Cther lat>or lnco:o•E:
.t.~.chor;: ge 0 0.881 0 0 0 0 0
Southcentra1 0 0.203 0 0 0 0 0
i\est of State 0 0.136 0 0 0 . 0 0
F:est cf h'or1d 0.051 0.136 0 3.958 o:· 0 0
Fro;;d ;;tors 1 1 TtCO::lE
A;-.chr.rcge 0 0 0. 780 0 0 0 0
Sc:;thcentrc.1 0 0 33.600 0 0 0 0
:::es~ of State 0 0 2.130 0 0 0 0
~est of \-,'orid 0 0 56.870 0 0 0 0
U!\;;LL OC;.T::D, OUT OF REGiON:
Di \'1 C:e~.cs, lr.terest,
and Rents
::est cf \-~cr1 d
7rc.:-1SfE.rs
;:;est 'of ~·or1d .
10j.!.L 5.687 9.152 105.630 27.924 8.889 -~0.584 5.206
SOURCE: S~e text on personal income.
Total -
14.677·
1.205
13.259
0.317
3.501
4.709
1.087
0.725
68.E24
0. t.81
0.203
.. o. 135 :. 4.145
0.780
33.600
2.130
56.870
1.623
~ .813•
213.326
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As shown in the table, we have indicated personal income sources by
type, accruing from the broad industrial classifications designated at
the top of the table. The left hand column of the table indicates the
estimated breakdown of income to resident and nonresident recipients.
Inclusion of the military and related civilian federal income as non-
resident is a judgmental decision based on the fact that these incomes
do not appear to enter the general income stream of the Aleutian
economy, but rather reflect enclave activity.
While much of the basis for allocating income has already been estab-
lished in preceding sections of this study dealing with the Aleutians,
there are several points that need to be expanded. In general, data
on wages and salary income were obtained from the Statistical Quarterly
for appropriate years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis data on "other
labor income" were apportioned to specific private sector industries
on a proportional basis and then assigned to either resident or non-
resident categories in proportion to resident/nonresident wage and
salary incomes. Dividends, interest, and rent were allocated to
residents and nonresidents on the basis of total wage and salary
income. Total transfer payments were adjusted to assign military
transfers (except for veterans• pensions) to the nonresident category.
In addition, 10 percent of federal civilian retirement payments were
assigned to residents, with the remainder assigned to nonresidents.
With the exception of these adjustments, the remainder of transfer
67
Proprietor•s income is the income of self-employed and unincorporated
enterprises. A large portion of this component for the Aleutians
should reflect commercial fishing income, and it was felt that BEA
figures did not adequately reflect this income. An estimate of non-
commercial fishing proprietor•s income was made by assuming that the
proportion of proprietor•s income to wage and salary plus other labor
income was the same for the State as for the Aleutians. This led to
an estimate of noncommercial fishing proprietor•s income of 4.1
million dollars.
Proprietor•s income from commercial fishing was based on the value of
catch. No reliable data exist on net profits from commercial fishing.
It has been estimated, however, that about 35 to 40 percent of the
va 1 ue of catch is reflected in 1 abor income (Scott, Prospects for a
Bottomfishing Industry in Alaska); hence, 35 percent of the value of
catch has been used to estimate proprietor•s income. This figure has
been used in conjunction with the estimated 1978 southwest region
value of catch to estimate proprietor•s income, as shown in the table,
and was allocated by factors established in Table 18.
In general, the data for 1978 show total personal income of 213.3
million. Of this total, residents who are part of the nonenclave
economy of the region accrued 33 million dollars. Of the 180 million
dollars accruing to nonresidents, about 46.5 million dollars represent
.. ·~·· wa.g~L-a od~.-s.alaJ'.Y'-__ paym~_nts ____ to __ mjJJ:tary~pe_rs_QJlneJ _____ aod ... re.late.d __ fed.er_al ____ _
civilian employees, with the remainder (133.9 million dollars) going
to other nonresidents.
68
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b
I w
In terms of the regional allocation of the 180 million dollars, about
6.4 million dollars flowed to the Anchorage region; while 34.9 million
dollars went to the southcentral region (primarily Kodiak), with an
additional 3.0 million dollars going to the rest of the State. About
136.1 million dollars primarily from commercial fishing and defense-
related activities appeared to flow outside the State. Thus, while
total personal income was substantial, over 84 percent of the income
created by production in the A 1 eut i ans flowed out of the A 1 eut ian
region. These are indeed very high 1 eakages and present a different
picture of the Aleutian economy than that indicated by the BEA per-
sonal income data.
In addition to the analysis of total and per capita income, it is
again appropriate to consider the distribution of income. Recent data
on income distribution are not available, but the Bureau of Indian
Affairs prepared an estimate of the 1974 distribution of income which
is presented in Table 26. The distribution is shown for both Native
and white families. Median income for the two groups is similar, and
both are well below the statewide figure of 12,443 dollars for the
same year. The greatest disparity between Native and white families
appears in the under-5, 000 do 11 a r groups, with 26 percent of the
Native families and 13.8 percent of white families with incomes below
5,000 dollars. It should be noted that the non-Native families
include military personnel, whose incomes tend to flatten the distri-
bution somewhat; whereas for the Native distribution, the under-5,000
dollar and over-1-5,000 dollar income categories are proportionately
more important.
69
TABLE 26. FAMILY INCOME: NUMBER AND PERCENT OF NATIVE
AND WHITE FAMILIES BY INCOME LEVELS
ALEUT CORPORATION AREA
Native White
No. of Families Percent No. of Families
Under 1,000 7 2. 1 0
1,000-1,999 16 4.9 6
2,000-2,999 13 4.0 7
3,000-3,999 30 9.2 31
4,000-4,999 19 5.8 45
5,000-5,999 20 6. 1 55
6,000-6,999 26 8.0 65
7,000-7,999 25 7.7 63
8,000-8,999 21 6.4 72
9,000-9,999 18 5.5 37
10,000-11 ,999 40 12.2 88
12,000-14,999 31 9.5 102
15,000-24,999 56 17. 1 43
25,000-49,999 5 1.5 17
50,000 0 0
Median Income $8,357 $8,604
Percent
0
1.0
1.1
4.9
7. 1
8.7
10.3
10.0
11.4
5.9
13.9
16.2
6.8
2.7
0
[
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SOURCE: Tribal Specific Health Plan (Aleutian-Pribilof Isl.ands Assoc.~ation--~ ~~ •.
Health Department, undated). ----~-_ . ---b-
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POPULATION
Aggregate population data for 1960 and the years 1970-78 are presented
in Table 27; it includes total resident and civilian population and
military population. Considerable variation in the military popula-
tion is evident; although for most of the period, it averaged a little
over 3,000. For recent years, it has been somewhat lower, dropping to
1,655 in 1978. Total civilian population has shown a steady increase,
attributable to both natural increase and net in-migration. Table 28
shows the component of change in both civilian and military population
over the 1970-78 period. Civilian population has grown at about 4.8
percent, with natural increase accounting for 47 percent of the total
increase. The remainder is accounted for by net in-migration.
Table 29 provides data on population by community and by Native and
non-Native components. The data tota 1 s are not in strict agreement
with the other population data presented but do provide a generally
accurate picture of the population distribution in the census divi-
sion, with major nongovernment-based communities at King Cove, Sand
Point, St. Paul, and Unalaska. l't is no coincidence that (with the
exception of St. Paul) these are the major centers of commercial
fishing activity in the Aleutians.
E. ,. ------------------------------------------------· --·--------------------------------
[
[ 71
TABLE 27. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CIVILIAN AND TOTAL RESIDENT
1960
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
POPULATION: 1960, 1970-1978
Total Resident Total Civilian
Population Population
6,011 2,633
8,057 4,368
7,896 4,285
7,245 4,634
6,914 3,994
7,714 4,506
7,086 4,208
8,282 5,300
7,686 4,896
8,000 6,345
TABLE 28. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: COMPONENTS OF
POPULATION CHANGE, 1970-78
1970 Population
Births
Deaths
8,057
Natural Increase
1 , 106
176
930
Net Migration
Civilian
Military
1978 Population
1 ,047
-2,034
8,000
SOURCE: Alaska Depaftment of Labor
72
Military
3,378
3,689
3,611
2,611
2,920
3,208
2,878
2,982
2,790
1 ,655
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Akutan
Atka
Be 1 kofski
False Pass
King Cove 1
Nelson Lagoon
Ni ko 1 ski
Sand Pointl
St. George
St. Paul
Unalaska
Other
Total
TABLE 29. ALEUT REGION POPULATION
BY COMMUNITY, 1977
Native Non-Native Total
69 5 74
92 3 95
14 14
55 2 57
425 142 567
49 6 55
56 2 58
490 339 829
175 9 184
437 63 500
168 557 725
126 5,7002 5,826
2,156 6,828 8,984
lCity Manager's figures.
2 Includes military population.
Transient
360 -800
120
60
65
700 -3,000
1,305-4,045
r_~ ~---~~--~~~R~~:· Tribal Specific Health Plan (Aleutian-Pribilof Islands C --Associ a:ti OQ · Hea 1 tH ·· Depart:ment-;---mrdaTe-d}; ·~~--
[
[ 73
Bristol Bay
Bristol Bay is located in the southwest portion of Alaska on the upper
part of the Alaska Peninsula. As a region, it covers approximately
55,000 square miles, which makes it roughly the size of Iowa or
Illinois. There are a total of 29 villages in Bristol Bay, and a
total population of approximately 5,000 persons. Bristol Bay is, for
statistical purposes, actually two separate areas: the Bristol Bay
Borough (containing the villages Naknek, South Naknek, and King
Salmon) and the Bristol Bay Division (which contains the remainder of
the villages, including Dillingham).
The economy of Bristol Bay has one principal component that over-
shadows all other activity: the commercial salmon fishery. Although
affected in varying degrees, a 11 villages of the region are impacted
by the sa 1 mon industry. The sa 1 mon resource serves as an economic
base for subsistence living, as well as the commercial economic
activity. In recent years a substantial herring roe fishery has
developed. In addition to the fishing, King Salmon Air Force Station
in King Sa 1 mon a 1 so accounts for a significant amount of economic
activity, yet its linkages with the other economic units within the
region are minimal.
PRODUCTION
Basic sector production is composed of fishery related activity. Both
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___ __ __ __ _ __ commer-d.aJ_;_fjsJ:Li n.g· __ a nd_.p_r-ocess_ing _assume-.maj.o.r-_ econ omiC--p-~opor-t"ions -i n ----------- -b --
[
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the economy of the region. This has. been especially true over the
last three years, as Bristol Bay has had three of the biggest fishing
years ever.
fishing.
Table 30 summarizes information (data) on commercia 1
The data clearly show tremendous growth in the immediate past. The
history of the fishery is one of boom and bust cycles. Commercial
fishing began in the 1 ate 1800s, and though cyclic in terms of annua 1
harvest, the long run harvest cycle peaked in the mid-30s, followed by
a downward trend until the 1960s. The catch, despite cyclical fluctu-
ations, remained relatively constant (averaging nine million fish)
until the late 1970s. Over the past three years, however, the harvest
has been very high. The average harvest over 1979-81 has been 25 mil-
lion fish, with 1980 and 1981 (28.2 and 27.7 million fish) being the
highest and second highest catch in the history of the fishery.
Table 30 also provides the summary data on the newly developing
herring roe fishery. As can be seen, prior to 1977 this fishery was
of little economic consequence. Growth in this fishery has been in
large part a result of low or depleted stocks of herring elsewhere.
Virtually all herring is caught for roe which goes for export. Prices
have varied substantially. Exvessel prices in Bristol Bay were $110/
metric ton in 1976, $155/metric ton in 1977, $330/metric ton in 1978,
and a record high of $650/metri c ton in 1979, and fe 11 to $200 and
E ~ _ ~ __ -~-··-~~5_0_.2~ _1__9~~-~~~d .. ~981 ~ ~r:_:_:':_~c!2~e 1~_:~--~-. -.-..... ---------------------~------.-. -------~--.-_____ _
[
[ 75
TABLE 30. CATCH AND VALUE TO FISHERMEN
BRISTOL BAY 1969 TO 1981
YEAR SALMON HERRING
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Pounds
(millions)
46.0
115.8
66.7
20.8
14.5
16.0
29.7
48.5
47.8
83.4
130.6
177 .4P
180.3p
Value
($millions)
9.185
25.468
16.147
4.832
3.120
6.015
12.027
21.948
26.145
52.273p
141.462p
84.262p
132.000p
Catch* Value*
(metric tons) ($thousands)
48 5.2
43 8.0
23 7.7
103 13.2
51 4.0
169 43.0
100 31.9
134 126.9
2,660 562.9
7,180 2,755.4
10,303 6,950.4
17,860 3,294.8
11,5 70p 4,2so.oP
*Actually includes herring roe-on-kelp, but this amounted to only
about five percent of the total rate or 1.5 percent of catch in 1981.
p Preliminary data.
SOURCE: Alaska Catch and Production, Alaska Department of Fish and
Game.
76
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In short, the major increases in the economic and biological viability
of the fisheries in Bristol Bay have been somewhat surprising. It is
not known why this has actually occurred; certainly environmental
conditions over the past few years have been optimal. This, along
with the limited entry program and the extension of the 200 mile limit
(with its concomitant decrease in the high-seas salmon gill net
fishery), may have had a major impact. High catches are projected to
continue for at least one more year, with the point projection for the
1982 harvest at 36 million fish (a potential record catch).*
The other major dimension to understanding commercial fishing is the
ultimate distribution of the catch--where does the income from fishing
in Bristol Bay flow? Or, more simply put, who does the fishing? The
data on this is fragmentary at best. The data is somewhat better for
salmon fishing than for herring, but no precise information is avail-
able for either.
In discussing salmon fishing, an understanding of the limited entry
program is necessary. The ability to fish for salmon in Alaska is
contingent on the ownership of a permit that is issued by the State.
The permits were initially issued in 1975 on the basis of a point
system (priority was given based on geographical location, economic
*A fishermen 1 s strike in 1980 resulted in a harvest of only about half
of the availaoTe ha*"vest-:
77
dependence, and years in the fishery). The permits are transferable;
a fairly substantial market for trading permits has arisen. Each
fishery has a given number of permits that are gear type specific.
Table 31 provides data on the geographical distribution of the owner-
ship of permits. As can be seen, there are 2,600 permits in Bristol
Bay, of which roughly 47 percent a:re held by 11 residents 11 of Bristol
Bay. This is 1979 data; while additional permit transfers have taken
place since then, it is doubtful that these figures would change
appreciably.
However, there is a s i gni fi cant difference in income flows from the
fishery than might be inferred from permit ownership. First, only
38.55 percent of the drift gill net permits and 62.17 percent of the
set gill net permits are in the hands of local residents. The earn-
ings of each of these two gear types are significantly different.
From estimates based on survey analysis of the 1979 harvest, the
average gross income of the drift gi 11 net fleet was $72,000, as
opposed to $16,000 for the set gill net operations (Larson, 1980).
Moreover, there appears to be a significant difference in the earnings
of Bristol Bay residents as compared with nonlocal residents. The
average gross income from fishing (see Table 32) of Bristol Bay drift
gi 11 net operators was $52,000, as opposed to $73,000 for other
Alaskan fishermen and $81,000 for 11 out of state 11 residents. The same
----' --~ -~ ~-~ ~------------~-~-•~---------~-------------------------------------c--~---~--~-~~~-----~-~--~-• -~---~ ,-~------~-~~-~-~ ---~-~--·---~-~~~ ~-~~--
type of pattern, :though not to the same degree, exists for set gi 11
net operators.
78
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TABLE 31. BRISTOL BAY PERMANENT ENTRY SALMON PERMITS
GEAR TYPE AND RESIDENCE, 1979
Bristol Bay Non-Bristol Bay
Nonresident Resident Alaska Resident Total
Drift gill net 728 662 337 1,727
Set gill net 149 567 196 912
Total 877 1,229 533 2,639
PERCENT
Drift gill net 27.7 25.2 12.4 65.3
Set gill net 5.7 21.6 7.4 34.7
Total 33.4 46.8 19.8 100.0
SOURCE: Steve Langdon, Transfer Patterns in Alaskan Limited Entry
Fisheries, report to Limited Entry Study Group, Alaska State Legis-
lature, Jan 17, 1980.
Gear Type
TABLE 32. AVERAGE GROSS EARNINGS FROM SALMON FISHING
BY GEAR TYPE AND RESIDENCE, 1979
All Bris. Bay Other AK Out-of-State
Fishermen Residents Residents Residents
Drift gill net $71,696 $52,147 $72,643 $81,002
Set gill net $16,493 $14,724 $17,010 $19,484
SOURCE:
Salmon
1980.
Doug Larson, 11 1979 Fishermen Income Survey: Herring and
Fisheries," Alaska Sea Grant Program report 80-5, November
79
This difference in productivity is a result of several factors.
Bristol Bay residents tend to have smaller and older boats whereas the
limit boats (32 feet limit) are more likely to be operated by a non-
Bristol Bay resident. Langdon found that among Bristol Bay native
fishermen, 40 percent used smaller (less than 32 feet) boats, while
Kos 1 ow (1979) reported that more than 90 percent of non-Bri sto 1 Bay
residents fished limit boats. The boats of the natives (local resi-
dents) tend to be older and at a lower level of technology. This may
a 1 so reflect the 1 oca 1 residents' access to fi nanci a 1 markets and
ability to finance the latest technology. Koslow and Langdon both
note that the income of local residents is almost exclusively depen-
dent on salmon fishing, whereas out of area residents are not entirely
dependent on the Bristol Bay run. Koslow (1979, p. 8) found that more
than half of the local captains are dependent on Bristol Bay income
for more than two-thirds of their income, as opposed to 20 percent for
non-Alaskan captains. Langdon (1981, p. 63) reported that Bristol Bay
native fishermen indicated that 83 percent of their annua 1 incomes
come from salmon fishing and 50 percent indicated that salmon fishing
was their ~ source of income. This would seem to have a substan-
tial impact on access to financial markets, which impacts income and
productivity.
Based on relative gear productivity and the tenure of limited entry
permits, it would seem as though a substantial portion of the income
flows to other than 1 oca 1 residents. Based on the data presented in
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Tables 30 and 31, although Bristol Bay residents own 48.8 percent of
the limited entry permits, only 32.3 percent of the income generated
from the harvest flows into Bristol Bay.
Other Alaskan residents receive 21.0 percent of the value of the
harvest (own 19.8 percent of the permits), while 46.7 percent of the
value of the harvest accrues to non-Alaskan residents (who own 33.4
percent of the permits).
The harvest of herring has strikingly different economic character-
istics from the salmon fishery. Although the experience for the
herring fishery is somewhat limited, it appears that little income
flow finds its way into the local economy. From conversation with the
·area biologists from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, only a
small portion of the exvessel value goes to local fishermen. In 1981,
for example, about ten percent of the purse seiners and 80 percent of
the gill netters were 1 oca 1 Bri sto 1 Bay boats. However, the produc-
tivity of the gill net fishermen is substantially lower. In 1980,
gill netters harvested a 43,000 pound average per boat, while the same
figure was 247,000 pounds for purse seiners.
The proportion of the catch in terms of income that goes to 1 oca 1
residents is also affected by the predicted harvest. A high harvest
quota attracts more boats from outside the region, dropping the pro-
portion of income from the fishery that stays in the local economy.
-----------------
All this has led to ·requests that the fishery be limited in terms of
81
entry, or that a large portion be allocated to gill netters. (Many of
the local salmon fishermen can convert easily to the herring fishery--
the capital requirements to entering the herring fishery are minimal.)
However, thus far, the herring fishery has not been managed with the
specific intent of affecting the distribution of income (although the
defacto distributional outcome is affected by the particular manage-
ment scheme currently used). It remains to be seen if distributional
considerations will become an integral part of the management plan.
From 1981 data and information from A 1 as ka Department of Fish and
Game, of the $4,250,000 exvessel value of the herring harvest, only
$600,000 (or 14 percent) accrued to Bristol Bay residents. As a
percent of the tota 1 harvest, this is an increase over the previous
year as a result of a lower predicted harvest quota.
The final dimension of commercial fishery to be considered is employ-
ment. No systematic periodic estimates of commercial fishing in
Bristol Bay (or the rest of the state) are made by the Department of
Labor, as fishermen are self-employed and crew members generally work
on a 11 share" basis, and as such, are not salaried employees. Esti-
mates for 1969 ·through 1976 have, however, been compiled for the state
and various regions (Rogers, 1980, p. 13), and will be used here to
estimate employment for 1979. It is assumed that crew members come
from the same area as the residence of the permit holders. (There may
.... : ___ be __ o_Qnre_sj_cJent_s_~wb.o~ __ b iJ''_e_ T.es_i.d.e nt_s, ... bu:L _geneJ·.aJJy_. .tb_i_s __ is ___ JJo_t_ _the_
82
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case.) Rogers used a crew factor of 2.0 (including the captain)for
drift gill net fishermen and 2.5 for set gill net operations. Based
on those estimates, employment in Bristol Bay is 3,454 for driftnets
and 2,280 for setnets, with 2,741 being local residents.
Rogers estimates are probably low, though. Drift net fishermen
generally employ a 11 first crewman 11 for the whole season, but usually
employ a second crewman when the harvest is at the peak. Again, this
is difficult to estimate--Langdon (1980) reported an average crew size
of 1.44 for all Bristol Bay native fishermen, which is more likely.
Also, in a small portion of the cases (estimated by Langdon as 10
percent), the crewmen of non-Bristol Bay fishermen may be residents of
Bristol Bay. Utilizing this data, total employment is 6,493, with
3,201 being Bristol Bay residents.
The other component of the fishing industry in Bristol Bay is pro-
cessing. The present structure of the processing industry reflects a
mixture of shore-based and floating processors engaged in canning and
freezing. In recent years, the trend has been toward an increase in
the proportion of the harvest that is fresh frozen. In 1976 more than
90 percent of the salmon was canned, as compared to 1980 when approxi-
mate ly 21 percent of the harvest went to the fresh/frozen market.
Additionally, there is a significant portion of the harvest that is
airlifted into fresh markets and to other processing centers (Kenai
r and Kodiak). _______ _ t; ~------------~------~--~--~"-::-------. ··--~---~-~~-~~~-~~---~~~-.--~-------~~------~----~-~~----~-----------------~----~------~----~--~~~-~-~~------------------------------------
[
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In 1980, more than 180 processors and buyers operated in Bristol Bay.
Of these, about one third were on-shore processors, another third were
floating processors and catcher/processors, and another third were
brokers and buying stations.
Employment data for processing is available for Bristol Bay (both
statistical areas) from the Statistical Quarterly (Alaska Department
of Labor). For 1979, 889 was the average annual employment in manu-
facturing; which for Bristol Bay is largely synonymous with fish
processing. As is the case with commercial fishing, it is important
to determine what proportion of the employment is held by residents of
the region.
Data on this question are fragmentary at best. First, it must be
understood that total employment in Bristol Bay is highly seasonal and
is very dependent on salmon fishing. For 1979, average employment in
manufacturing (for both statistical areas combined) for the four
quarters was, respectively: 15 (Jan.-March), 101 (April-June), 1,708
(July-Sept.), and 193 (Oct.-Dec.). The lowest is the first quarter,
with very little activity. Substantial gains are recorded in the
second quarter, especially the latter part. Employment peaks in July
(the salmon run peaks around July 10), and then falls off through
December to the winter low. Available data does not indicate how the
seasonal pattern varies between residents and nonresidents.
84
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No other emp 1 oyment category exhibits such extreme seasonal varia-
t ions. The processing firms are reluctant to divulge to what extent
they import labor, but it is probably substantial. Part of the in-
crease in processing employment goes to resident workers, but it is
difficult to know how much.
The last element of the basic sector of Bristol Bay is the military.
King Salmon Air Force Station is located in the Bristol Bay Borough
and, as of 1978, had 432 active duty and civilian defense related
personnel (see Table 33). The military preserve is not as numerically
significant as it is in the Aleutians, and the overall regional
economic impact is relatively small. Remote bases tend to be self-
contained and self supporting, and have little effect on the local
economy.
In summary, basic sector production in Bristol Bay is almost exclu-
sively related to salmon fishing, with its relative importance having
increased as of 1 ate. In terms of providing emp 1 oyment in manufac-
turing, though, growth has not been substantial because a great deal
of the manufacturing labor is imported. However, the harvests over
the past three seasons have been very 1 arge and the near term projec-
tions are for continued high harvests (1982 could exceed all previous
harvests). This is likely to have substantial income effects in the
region.
85
TABLE 33. MILITARY AND RELATED FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
BRISTOL BAY BOROUGH AND BRISTOL BAY CENSUS DIVISION, 1978
1 PX and NAF (Post Exchange and Nonappropriated Fund activities, including
officer's clubs and enlisted men's clubs)
SOURCE: Numbers: Basic Economic Statistics of Alaska Census Divisions,
Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division
of Economic Enterprise, November 1979, p. 32-37.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
The analysis of employment of the Bristol Bay region is important for
understanding the sources of major income flows. These income flows
provide insight into the sources of growth of the local economy.
Tables 34, 35, and 36 summarize average monthly employment of the
Bristol Bay Region for the years 1965-1980. Table 34 provides data
for the entire region, while Tables 35 and 36 provide breakdowns for
86
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r-1 rl rh ·r-J rr~ r-J ~ c:---J T ia:r.:~ 34 r:-J r:l r-J r:l
AVEIUIGI~ CJVJl,IAN tlONTJIT,Y £m•r,O¥r:J~N'J'
1\iUS'fOL Dt\Y I.I\BOR hHEI\3
l'Jti=i .!J<ili .!2B. 1961! 196 11 ill~ 1971_ 1972 1973 1974'
L~~~~·:; tD'.
llinin~ ,~ k ,~ ,~ * .. -: * ,., * *
I
Conlr;H.:t. Con:;truction ,., '~ ,., * * -.·: ,, ,~ ,., .... ,
u,,nufacltlring 626 687 373 693 905 1 851 1 798 1 402 4lt5 235
Tr,,m;poilation, Domnmni-
cations & Util~tics 89 9'• 95 113 117 .111 110 104 170 148
Wholesale & Retail 29 28 30 35 42 47 47 59 60 74
Fi.nancc, Insurance and
Real Estate * ,~ * * * * * 32' * 27
Services 31 27 38 29 25 23 33 45 55 142
Federal Government 188 179 168 167 146 162 120 171 191 193
State & Local Go .. •ernment 100 130 150 174 190 204 264 317 368 396
Niscellancous 0 0 0 .o 0 '* * * * ·~
Total 1,084 1,002 866 943 1,063 1,253 1,243 1' 171 1,354 1,267
*Four firms or less reporting, so privacy dictates that data is not listed, though is included in totals.
1 Less Lhan four ~irms reporting in at least one quarter.
2 0nly three quarters reported.
r-l rJ ["j r-J :---] ~
1975 1976 J.2lJ.. 1 '17 8 1979 ~2
27 1 SJ' 37
291 289 264 '•69 889 662
192 212 215 236 222 236
94 90 1 80 1 101 1 79 1 145 1
25 1 35 1 43 1 34 1 32' ItO
182 201 1 230 304 1 393 786
195 194 194 195 191 , ... 186 ' .
474 507 437 570 636 566
....
*
1,512 1,579 1,513 ·. 1,846 2,473 2,278
3Prior to 1974 d~ta reported on Uristol Day election district. Since 1975 data has been reported [or Bristol Day Dorough and Dristol Day Census Div.
SOURCE: Statistical Quartcrl:r::, Alaska Department of Labor.
TABLE 35. AVERAGE CIVILIAN MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT
BRISTOL BAY CENSUS DIVISION
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Mining * * * * * *
Contract Construction 70 1 * 66 271 34 29
Manufacturing 97 124 131 207 694 1 313
Transportation, Communi-
cation and Utilities 110 143 170 187 178 191
Wholesale Trade * ·/( * a/( 81 41
Retail Trade 67 63 53 63 71 98
Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate 25 1 35 43 34 32 29
Services 97 1 128 170 235 393 273
Federal Government 77 82 100 115 107 113
State and Local
Government 331 399 344 372 399 333
Total 855 977 1,038 1,193 1,690 1,399
SOURCE: Statistical Quarterly, Alaska Department of Labor
*Less than four firms reporting, so privacy preservation dictates that data is
not listed, though it is included in totals.
1 Less than four firms reporting for at least one quarter.
2 0nly three quarters of data available.
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TABLE 36. AVERAGE CIVILIAN MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT
BRISTOL BAY BOROUGH DIVISION
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 2
Industry 1
Mining -/( * * 0 0 *
Contract Construction * * * 0 19 1 81
Manufacturing 194 165 133 262 195 349
Transportation, Communi-
cation and Utilities 82 69 45 49 44 45
Wholesale Trade * ~";: * * * "";'(
Retail Trade 27 27 27 38 * 43 1
Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate * * * * ..," 11
Services 85 73 60 1 69 1 "/( 513
Federal Government 118 112 94 80 84 73
State and Local
Government 143 108 93 198 237 233
Total 657 602 475 653 783 879
SOURCE: Statistical Quarterly, Alaska Department of Labor
*Less than four firms reporting, so privacy preservation dictates that data is
not listed, though it is included in totals.
1 Less than four firms reporting for at least one quarter.
2 0nly three quarters of data available.
89
Over the period, total employment grew substantially at an average
annual rate of 5.1 percent. While the basic industry of fish pro-
cessing registered very little growth, other sectors grew at sub-
stantial rates.
Manufacturing (synonymous with fish processing) is to a large degree
imported (from outside the region), and is very dependent on the size
of the fish harvest. As with harvest data (see Table 30), with the
exception of the past three years, no consistent pattern exists.
State and 1 oca 1 government grew at a 12. 25 percent rate, whereas
wholesale and retail trade grew at a 11.3 percent rate, and transpor-
tation grew at a 6. 7 percent rate. Services grew at a 24.1 percent
rate, yet this rate of growth is based upon a statistical anomaly, and
is probably significantly lower. (Based on the 1965-1979 period, it
still registered a 19 percent rated growth.)
In examining monthly employment .data presented in Table 37, there
appears to be a great deal of volatility in employment in the manu-
facturing, service, and state and local government sectors. It
appears that the increases in employment in the manufacturing and
commercia 1 fishing sector are matched by reductions in each of the
other two sectors. Apparently, most of the variation in employment in
the government takes place in local government employment, where
_positions are _funded _w_ith _the _ int.P.nt.ion of -permitting commercial
fishing during the season.
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TABLE 37. BRISTOL BAY MONTHLY NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1979
Jan. Feb. March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Construcbion ]•·k 107\-g-;': 28 30 42 46ir 66* 547\-78 83 64
!
Manufact.~ring 17 ll* 16~\-35 7\-84i• 184 26ll 1537 977 438 298 289
Trans.-Cdmm. & Utilities 200 197 194 209 240 217 227 233 220 255 239 234 . ,,
Wholesale Trade ";'\ 'i'( * "'k ~( ";'\ 8 8 9 7 7 6
1
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Retail Tt.:ade 64"'• 62~·-63"'' 607'• 7P\-69;\-61* 68-1• 87* 79~·· 84* 82"'•
Finance-~nsurance 36-1• 35 7\-32* 34* 31 7\-287'' 25"'' 29* 29* 33* 31* 327\-
\.0 Services ' 4407\-424"'• 4667\-483"'' 5127\-598* 438* 421* 2847\-232* 217* 200* --'
Federal Government 196 194 195 181 187 197 196 205 201 184 182 176-1•
i
State & Local Government 692 736 721 755 760 549 351 353 624 660 718 ll32
Miscellaneous 1956 1958
I
1969 2185 2544 2788 4198 3158 2708 2184 2052 1985
SOURCE: :statistical Quarterly, Alaska Department of Labor
*Some specific data not reported for disclosure reasons, but included in totals.
One significant omission from the employment data is commercial
fishing. Fishing, as previously discussed, is not traditional sal-
aried employment. Fishermen work for crew shares (e.g., 15 percent of
the gross to each crewman); and for tax purposes, crewmen and fisher-
men are considered to be self-employed. Utilizing previous estimates,
it would appear that fishermen (and crew) accounted for 6,493 jobs,
and that local residents account for 3,201 jobs in fishing employment
(though this is highly seasonal). If we include these figures with
tota 1 reported emp 1 oyment, then fishing accounted for 72 percent of
total employment. Commercial fishing and processing account for
80 percent of total employment. Again, it must be reiterated that a
great deal of this employment occurs in a relatively short period of
time (the three months of the salmon harvest).
A second issue in employment, as explained earlier, relates to the
residency of job holders. As indicated above, a significant portion
of employment in commercial fishing is non-resident employment. As
reported previously, the bulk of employment by processors is also
non-resident.
A few of the processing firms have indicated the extent to which they
import labor (Table 38), although there is probably not enough infor~
mation or consistency to be able to make estimates as to the propor-
tion of the payroll from processing that goes to non-resident labor.
____ E_~om_i_nt.el"-vj_ews_wj_tb_the--p~ocesso~s-,-i-t-would-appear-that-dul"-i-ng-the
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TABLE 38. BRISTOL BAY SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT BY RESIDENCY
OF EMPLOYEES, LARGE PROCESSORS
Seasonal Peak Local Other Alaska Outside Alaska
1980 1981 1980 1981 1980 1981 1980 1981
Dillingham/Nushagak
Queens"Fisheries 260 300 0 0 86~\-100~\-174"k 200~'~-
Peter Pan 210 225 120 120 20 20 70 85
Naknek/Kwichak
Nelbro 280 225 6 6 134 110 140 109
U) Red Salmon w 197 197 20 20 10 10 167 167
Whitney 120 120 10 10 20 20 90 90
Egegik
Kodiak King 80 85 0 0 19~\-20~\-61* 65*
Diamond·E. 263 263 0 0 66~\-66* 197* 197*
Columbia Ward 275 300 0 0 150 175 125 125
TOTAL 1,685 1 '715 156 156 505 521 1,024 1,038
% of Total 100% 100% 9.2 9.1 30 30 60 61
*Based on a percentage estimate of season peak.
SOURCE: D~ta provided by representatives of respective processors.
processing peak, a Substantial portion of the income flow to labor
accrues to non-resident labor. Perhaps 60 percent of this income
flows outside Alaska and 30 percent to non-Bristol Bay Alaskans. It
must be remembered, though, that this is only during salmon season,
which is basically June, July, and August. This is when employment is
at its peak. However, during the other months, there is little migra-
tory labor--the processors bring in the outside labor only for the
fishing season.
This finding is reinforced by data on labor force and employment.
During the peak of the 1979 salmon harvest, data on employment suggest
that there are 4,200 jobs being filled, yet the labor force at that
time was only 2,036; it is doubtful that the difference in the two
figures is accounted for by moonlighting.
On average, it appears that 90 percent of processing employment during
the peak period is non-resident employment. (For purposes here, it is
assumed that peak period is July, August and September, and that all
other jobs go to the residents.) Based on 1979 monthly data of the
6,497 month jobs, 1,885 (29 percent) were held by residents, and 4,612
(71 percent) were held by non-residents. Of the non-residents, one
third of those non-resident jobs (1,537 jobs or .24 percent of the
total) were held by Alaskan residents (outside Bristol Bay). On an
annual basis, employment in processing would be allocated as follows:
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------B-~is_toJ_B-a.}'-.~esJdents-t_l5l_j_obs_;_ooo~Jl.laskao_~es_idents_,_J84_jobs_; _____ t-
other Alaskan residents, 128 jobs.
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The a 11 ocat ion of the remainder of emp 1 oyment has been accomp 1 i shed as
follows: state and local government is assumed to be local residents,
as is also the case for the remainder of the employment categories.
With the exception of federal government military employment, most of
the other categories are small (construction is the most notable), and
though a portion of employment might be allocated to non-residents,
for purposes here, employees are assumed to be residents.
Using these assumptions, from the data presented in Table 39, it would
appear that 52.3 percent of total employment was held by Bristol Bay
residents. The remaining 47.7 percent is held by non-residents.
Again, it must be emphasized that this is an estimate, but it does
provide a benchmark. Data are not avai 1 able to make this determi na-
tion for other years. Also, it is not possible to speculate how
resident employment shares will change over time.
TABLE 39. BRISTOL BAY AVERAGE ANNUAL ESTIMATED RESIDENT AND
NON-RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT, 1979
Industry
Commercial Fishing
Manufacturing
Construction
Transportation
Communications and Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance
Services
Federal Gov't (military) 1978 data
Resident Non-Resident
3,201 3,292
157 512
34 0
178 0
152 0
32 0
393 0
432
Total
6,493
669
34
178
152
32
393
432
··~~··~--~~~~!~-~~~:-~-a-~0 ~~-~::~n--------107 0 107
399 0 399 --
[ Total 4,653 4,236 8,889
52.3% 47.65%
[ 95
Summary data on the labor force, employment, and unemployment for
1970-1981 are presented in Tab.l es 40 and 41. It should be noted here
that the employment data in this table is fundamentally and defini-
tionally different from the employment data in previous tables.
First, as in the previous data, no official data is available on
commercial fishing. Secondly, the data here reflects job holder
status, and is based solely on residents (i.e., resident adjusted).
Thirdly, and perhaps the most important difference, the data reflect
the number of job holders, whereas the previously presented data
reflected the number of jobs. The difficulty here is that it is
possible to hold more than one job, and thus, it is difficult to
adjust income flows on the basis of jobs.
Of particular interest are the levels of unemployment and the unem-
ployment rate. These are surprisingly low, given the cyclic variation
in employment (number of jobs). However, given the definition of
labor force participation used and the nature of the economy in
Bristol Bay, they less surprising. The data suggests that a substan-
tia 1 amount of movement in and out of the 1 abor force is present.
Most observers fee 1 that emp 1 oyment and unemp 1 o,yment figures are
tenuous when examining "Bush" economies. People tend to enter the
labor force during the summer months when employment opportunities are
present. During the remaining part of the year, although they could
potentially be employed, . the_y are not in the labor-. force. This is
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TABLE 40. SUMMARY EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS,
BRISTOL BAY LABOR AREA
Labor Unemployment
Year Force Employment Unemployment Rate (%)
1970 1,384 1,228 156 11.3
1971 1,483 1,280 203 13.7
1972 1,468 1,291 177 12.1
1973 1,547 1,399 148 9.6
1974 1,601 1,494 107 6.7
1975 2,005 1,897 108 5.4
1976 2,096 1,943 153 7.3
1977 1,928 1, 778 150 7.8
1978 1,661 1,497 164 9.9
1979 1,838 1,679 159 8.7
1980 1,824 1,573 151 8.3
1981* 1,860 1,723 137 7.4
*Based on the first three quarters only.
SOURCE: Historical Report on Labor Force and Employment, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
TABLE 41. MONTHLY LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT,
BRISTOL BAY, 1979
Civilian
Labor Force Employment Unemployment Rate
January 1,609 1,433 176 10.9
February 1,686 1,508 199 11.8
March 1,828 1,578 250 13.7
Apri 1 1,811 1,633 178 9.8
May 1,960 1, 764 196 10.0
June 1,922 1,768 154 8.0
July 2,036 1,933 103 5.1
August 1,911 1,800 111 5.8
September 1,879 1,775 111 5.9
October 1,939 1,800 139 7.2
-November-- . -1,805------1~656 ----139 --------- -T.T
December 1,679 1,527 152 9.1
SOURCE: Statistical Quarterly, Alaska Department of Labor, 1980.
97
primarily because of the way in which labor force participation is
measured. Those persons who have not actively sought work, even
though they may have wanted to work, are considered out of the labor
force; therefore, they don't appear within official estimates of
unemployment. This effect is similar to what is referred to as the
"discouraged worker" effect in national employment data, except in the
Alaskan bush the basic economic structure is somewhat different.
Nonetheless, it is felt by many that the narrow definition of unem-
ployment accounts for much of the perceived difference between
published rates of unemployment and the proportion of people who are
not gainfully employed (i.e., unemployed). This shows up somewhat in
labor force participation rates--in 1980, the labor force participa-
tion rate for Bristol Bay was 24.5 percent, whereas for Alaska and the
United States as a whole, it was 47.7 and 46.9, respectively. Many
people enter the labor force during the summer when fishing season is
in full swing, and then are out of the 1 abor force unt i 1 the next
year.
In a study done by the state in the lower Yukon-Kuskokwim Region, it
was estimated that actual unemployment was 24.7 percent, as opposed to
official estimates of 13.2 percent. The study used a broader (less
restrictive) definition of unemployment that was intended to measure
the available worker pool. The question asked was, "Does .... want
a regular job now, either full-or part-time?"
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This is reinforced further by Langdon's study among resident Bristol
Bay fishermen. While fishing represents the single most important
employment opportunity in Bristol Bay, it is only important for that
middle three-month period. Langdon reported that Bristol Bay native
fishermen received 83 percent of their annual income from fishing, and
that among 58 percent of the fishermen, fishing was their sole source
of income. It is· recognized that salmon fishing is seasonal, yet the
fisherman who is unemployed for the other nine months of the year is
an under-utilized resource.
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income data for the Bristol Bay region for the years 1959-
1979 (both statistical areas) have been compiled and are presented in
Table 42 and Table 43. the growth rate of current dollar total per-
sonal income for the Bristol Bay Division and the Bristol Bay Borough
was 11.92 percent and 7.96 percent respectively. Per capita income
growth for each was 10.49 percent and 6.92 percent respectively.
However, when measured in constant dollars, the growth appears to have
been substantially less. In real terms, per capita income has grown
at a rate of only 5.68 percent in the Bristol Bay Division and 2.1
percent in the Bristol Bay Borough.
A couple of aspects of the above data suggest that the numbers need to
be taken with a fair amount of caution. First, the Anchorage Consumer
Price Index was used to adjust the time series to constant dollar
99
YEAR
1959
1962
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
SOURCE:
TABLE 42. PERSONAL INCOME
BRISTOL BAY DIVISION
TOTAL PER
(000) CAPITA
2,491 812
3,052 918
3,906 1,196
4,175 1,295
4,372 1,260
4,753 1,378
5 '110 1,476
6,407 1,829
7,348 2,085
6,853 1,854
15,595 4,174
13,908 3,635
16,233 4,088
16,230 3,857
18,018 4,257
19,636 4,645
23,720 5,973
1979
DOLLARS
1,975
2,604
2,710
2,581
2,757
2,855
3,419
3,784
3,278
7,079
5,562
5,499
4,815
4,984
5,078
5,973
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Current dollar income figures from U.S. Department of E
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analy-sis_._C_Qns_t_ant._d_o_l,lar. _______ ••
figures detlated by using Anchorage CPI.
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TABLE 43. PERSONAL INCOME
BRISTOL BAY BOROUGH
BASED
TOTAL PER ON 1979
YEAR -cooo) CAPITA DOLLARS
1959 3,394 3,341
1962 4,122 3,734 8,271
1965 3,705 3,447 7,505
1966 3,947 3,703 7,550
1967 4,089 3,574 7,323
1968 4,413 3,878 7,759
1969 6,792 5,946 11,504.58
1970 5,758 4,994 9,336
1971 7,304 6,041 10,963
1972 7,339 6,678 11,821
1973 9,315 8,369 14,195
1974 10,028 8,462 12,948
1975 11,419 9,157 12,319
1976 12,707 9,678 12,804
1977 11,761 8,890 10,408
1978 13,014 10,711 11,711
1979 15,705 12,737 12,737
SOURCE: Current dollar incomes from U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Constant dollar figures
deflated by using Anchorage CPI.
101
amounts, since no more specific index is available. There is a con-
siderable difference in prices between Bristol Bay and Anchorage, yet
aside from some tenuous estimates of the gross difference, no consis-
tent time series is available. Secondly, the CPI has come under a
significant amount of criticism as of late, in that many feel that it
has consistently overstated inflation, and thus, the rate of real
income growth waul d actually have been higher over the period.
Thirdly, the data in no way provides any information about the subsis-
tence economy. If the poverty level of income were adjusted to
Bristol Bay, it would suggest that the bulk of the population is below
the poverty level. What is missing in the personal income data is the
value of subsistent income and how this has changed over time. Addi-
tionally, in examining the data for the two different statistical
areas, it is evident that the income in the Bri sto 1 Bay Borough is
more than twice that in the Bristol Bay Division. This has to be
explained in large part by the fact that Bristol Bay Borough is one of
the centers of commerce, and the portion of individual 1 s existence
that is tied up in subsistence activity is less than in the more rural
areas. The Bristol Bay Division, on the other hand, includes all the
outlying bush communities, in addition to the commercial center of
Dillingham.
Data on the distribution of income for Bristol Bay is presented in
Table 44. It is recognized that this data is fairly dated, yet it is
important as a p_otnt of reference_. The _distri button and levels of
income have certainly changed since 1970, but no attempt is made here
to speculate what these changes have been.
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The distribution is shown for both white and non-white (native) groups.
The largest disparity exists in the two lowest income classes, which
accounted for 43.4 percent and 42.3 percent of the native fami 1 i es,
but only 15.6 percent and 16.9 percent of the white families. Also,
compared with statewide data, Bristol Bay natives appear to be concen-
trated more in the lower income classes.
It must be remembered, however, that the white population is concen-
trated more in the commercial centers and King Salmon Air Force
Station, which would tend to raise the income levels and flatten the
distribution. Also, this data does not include any value for subsis-
tence income.
TABLE 44. INCOME OF FAMILIES BY PERCENT IN INCOME CLASS
BRISTOL BAY, 1970
B R I S T 0 L BAY ALASKAN
Income Class Total White Non-White Total White Non-White
$0 -4,999 31.9 15.6 43.4 14.1 9.9 37.7
$5,000-9,999 31.7 16.9 42.3 23.6 22.4 30.1
$10,000-14,999 21.8 42.5 7.3 24.6 25.5 19.2
$15,000-24,999 13.2 23.5 6.0 28.2 31.3 11.0
$25,000 and more 1.3 1.6 1.1 9.6 10.9 1.9 ----
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
SOURCE: Kresge, Fison, and Gasbarro, Bristol Bay: A Socioeconomic Study,
~ ISEGR Report No. 41, University of Alaska, 1974, p. 4.2. [ - - - - - - - - - --- - - - --" --. . .. -·
[
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POPULATION
Aggregate population data for Bristol Bay for 1960, 1970, and 1980 are
presented in Table 45; included is the data on population by racial
group (native and non-native components). Table 46 provides data on
the components of the changes in population between 1960, 1970, and
1980. Overall population grew at a 1. 74 percent rate over the two
decades, with the native component growing at a somewhat higher rate.
Virtually all of the population growth in Bristol Bay has been ac-
counted for by natural increase. From 1960 to 1970, there was a
substantial increase in natural increase, coupled with negative
changes in military population and net migration.
Between 1970 and 1980, there was a further reduction in mi 1 i tary
population, with positive implied net migration and positive natural
increase. However, over the two decades, the changes in mi 1 i tary
population and net migration appear to have been negative. The totals
are not in strict agreement, but the data do provide a generally
consistent picture with respect to the major causes of population
change.
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Table 47 provides data on population by community, by native, and [
non-native components. The highest concentration of Caucasians is in [
the Dillingham and Naknek areas (the primary centers of the region).
_____________ T_h_o~ugh Caucasians make up 30 percent of the total gogulation.~g=e~r-___________ ,~
cent of the Caucasian population resides in these two areas, where
combined they account for 50 percent of the population. [
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TABLE 45. POPULATION GROWTH
BRISTOL BAY,· 1960-1980 1
1960
Census
1970
Census
1980*
Census 1960-80
Total Population
White
American Indian, Eskimo,
and Aleut
Black
Asian
Other
4,024
1,423
2,574
27
4,632
1,593
3,003
36
5,683
1, 726
3,880
48
7
22
1. 74
0.96
2.07
2.91
NA
NA
1 Prior to 1974, only one census division for Bristol Bay was reported.
*1980 Census of Population and Housing (Advance Reports), Alaska
(PHC80-V-3), U.S. Department of Commerce, March 1981.
TABLE 46. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
BRISTOL BAY BOROUGH 1960 -1980
1960 Population
Change in Military Population
Natural Increase (births-deaths)
Civilian Migration
1970 Population 1
1970 Population 1
Change in Military Population
Natural Increase (births-deaths)
Civilian Migration
1980 Population
4024
-97
947
-242
4632
TOTAL
4974
-70
649
124
5677
1 1970 population was reported for the whole of
Bristol Bay
Borough
1147
369
92
-525
1083
Dillingham
Census Area
3827
-439
557
649
4594
reference to 1970 population comes from A __ l~a~s~k~a--~--~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Look, Alaska ··Department. of Labor, 1981.
105
TABLE 47. DILLINGHAM CENSUS AREA POPULATION
BY COMMUNITY, 1980
White Native Other Total --
Aleknagik 16 -138 154
Clarks Point 9 70 79
Dillingham 660 891 8 1563
Ekwok 5 71 1 77
Manokotak 20 273 1 294
Newhalen 5 82 87
New Stuyahok 20 311 331
Nondalton 11 161 1 173
Port Heiden 31 59 2 92
Togiak 26 443 1 470
Bristol Bay Borough
(King Salmon, Naknek &
South Naknek 660 360 74 1094
1464 2805 88 4357
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1980 Census
of Population and Housing, 11 Fuel Population and Housing Unit
Counts: Alaska, PHCBO-V-3, Advance Reports, March 1981, p. 4.
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III. THE BASE CASE
In this part of the report we deal with three critical elements of the
base case. The first of these is the underlying .methodology used to
develop the base case. The second element concerns the assumption re-
garding the future economic activity used to develop the projections.
The third is the set of projections themselves.
Methodology
Impact analysis, as carried out in the present study, is based upon a
comparison of sets of economic and demographic projections, where one
set is the standard or base case set. The base case serves as a frame
of reference against which the economic and demographic changes re-
sulting from the proposed OCS lease sale can be measured and evaluated.
There are two components of this process that are of particular con-
cern. First is the question of the accuracy and consistency of the
projections. Generally speaking, this is dependent upon the validity
of the assumptions utilized regarding future economic growth of the
exogenous variables and the projection methodology employed. More
will be said on both of these points below.
The second concern relates to the degree of information contained in
the projections. Specifically, do the projections contain the infer-
mat ion that is necessary to adequately 5 nterpret and evaluate the
impacts?
108
Whi 1 e aggregate data on economic and demographic vari ab 1 es generated
using the projections methodology employed in this study will answer
many questions, it must be recognized that there will be omissions as
well.
At the root of impact analysis is the issue of how economic well-
being, both individually and collectively, will be affected by the
proposed action. Two major problems are associated with this process.
First it is not possible to measure all impacts that will result from
the lease sale. In part this is due to the volume of information that
would be required and the inadequacy of the existing methodology to
capture all effects at an acceptable level of cost.
The more serious problem is that many of the effects are not measur-
able. While reallocation of resources within the context of the
functioning of the market, in response to economic change, is
desirable from the perspective of efficiency, change on the order of
magnitude implied by OCS activity may also lead to situations of
market failure and the presence of externalities. These are often
difficult to identify and are certainly difficult to measure.
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Even if these effects could be isolated they are usually inseparable L
from a further problem, that of income redistribution. Changes in [
income distribution and the relative economic position of individuals
_____ ___,res u 1 t i ng (l"_o_rn_O_C_S_a_c_t_i v i_cy_ne_c_e_s_s_ctJ'5Jy_i_rnpJ_i_e_s_t_b~t_t_b_eLe_wjJJ_p_e, _____ E-
lossers and gainers and associated changes in economic welfare. These
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are problems that involve normative economic judgements and cannot be
dealt with by impact analysis alone. In short, comparative impact
analysis provides only part of the information necessary for decision
making.
THE MAP AND SCIMP MODELS
We can now turn to a discussion of the models utilized in
developing the present base case projections (and associated OCS
impacts projections). At the statewide and regional level two models
have been utili zed, the MAP statewide econometric mode 1 and the MAP
regional econometric model. For documentation of the MAP statewide
model, see Goldsmith, Man-in-the-Arctic Program: Alaska Economic
Model Documentation. The MAP statewide model is actually a system of
models composed of economic, fiscal, and population models. The three
are interdependent, as shown schematically in Figure 2.
FIGURE 2: The MAP Statewide Model
~I Economic I~ Model
t +
Population Fiscal
Model ~ Model
5----------
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In essence, this states that the economic model receives input from
the fiscal and population models, the fiscal model receives input from
the economic and population models, and the population model utilizes
input from the economic models, but not directly from the fiscal
mode 1. Thus, when we ta 1 k about the economic mode 1 we are really
describing the. interaction of three models. To simplify things some-
what we can describe the important linkages between submodels and then
consider the economic model in more detail.
The population-economic model link is the source of population esti-
mates that are of direct interest, and reflect both natural population
change and migration induced by changes in economic conditions. The
population estimates are also used by the economic model for purposes
of computing various per capita values for economic variables.
The significant link with the fiscal model relates to the role of
State government expenditures as a source of major economic stimulus
to the aggregate level of economic activity. In turn, State govern-
ment (and 1 ocal government) expenditures are dependent upon two key
factors, the over a 11 1 eve 1 of economic activity and the 1 eve 1 of
activity in the petroleum industry. The system allows for a variety
of po 1 icy choices regarding state government spending and is one of
the key points to consider in assessing economic forecasts.
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We can now turn to a consideration of the economic model component of
the system.
The MAP statewide and regional models belong to a class of econometric
models that are known as disaggregate economic base models. In
essence, economic activity is classified as either endogenous or
exogenous (or basic). Exogenous activity determines the level of
endogenous activity, and the specific relationships between the two
components of economic activity are what make up the system of equa-
t ions that are the econometric mode 1. These models can be quite
simple or rather complex, and the MAP models fall in this latter
category. It is possible to get a feel for the models by considering
the MAP statewide model.
As can be seen in Figure 3, determination of industrial production
involves the impact of exogenous sector activity, which includes for-
estry, fisheries, agriculture and other manufacturing, as well as
Federal government wages and salaries. Other exogenous sector
activity includes the petroleum industry and components of contract
construction such as major pipelines. State and local government
expenditures may also be considered as exogenous for discussion
purposes, although there is some interdependence between these ex-
penditures and total economic activity. It should be noted that in
[ constructing scenarios for forecasting or projection purposes it is
-b------------p_r_i_m_a_r_i_lY ___ t_h_e_s_e __ ex~o_g_e_n~o_u_s __ v_a_r_i_a_b_l_e_s __ t_h_a_t __ m_u_s_t __ b_e __ p_r_o_v_i_d_e_d_. ________________________ _
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SOURCE:
FIGURE 3. __ THE ~1AP STATEHIDE ECONOMIC MODEL
EXOGENOUS SECTORS
F"ores!r'y
Fisheries
Ftderol ~vvern~tnf
~Qricullure
O!her monu!ocluring
S!cle ond
loco I
Govtrnmenl
Pelrcleum
' ·~ Conslru~lion l
' l.__ ____ :...__:__~;..t Indus! rio I ~roduc lion·. l· r·
I Ptrsonol l
Tc•u I .r
~ Consuml!i' I
Prices I '
••.• "'!
i
Employmenl
l
\'r'o9es ond
Soiorie5
Pe,.onol
Income
Disposcbl~
Personol
Inc om~
Reel Disposob!e
Personol
Income
• ..
SUPPC::lT S~CTOR
Trccle
Fincnce
Servic~s
Tronsponotion
Com!T\unicotions
Public ~:1 iii tie$
I
~ .•
l':·c.n-In-The-Arctic Program Alaskan Economic l·~odel· DocumentatiQD.
(ISER, 1979).
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These exogenous variables combine with demand from the support sector
and endogenous construction to generate total industrial production.
Industrial production, through a series of steps, determines employ-
ment and income, and finally real disposable personal income, which in
turn is a determinant of support sector and endogenous construction
economic activity. This means that aggregate production depends on
both exogenously determined and endogenously determined economic
activity, where endogenous activity. depends on total activity. As
such, the system is a simultaneous equation structure.
It should also be noted that certain other variables enter the model
as well. In particular, wage rates are used in determining total wage
and salary payments, where the wage rates are in part dependent upon
U.S. wage rates, which are determined exogenously. It should also be
observed that the model is particularly sensitive to the wage rates
used.
The MAP regional model dissagregates the MAP statewide model estimates
for population and for employment in the basic, support, and govern-
ment sectors among 20 regions. Most of these regions correspond to
Alaska census divisions. In order to use the regional model, see-
narios (or future values for exogenous variables) must be specified on
a regional basis. The MAP regional model is described in Appendix A.
For the Aleutian Islands Census Division projections have been devel-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
oped using the small community population impact model (SCIMP). For
114
documentation see Lee Huskey and Jim Kerr, 11 Small Community Population
Impact Model 11 • Whereas the MAP models are classified as econometric
models, SCIMP is technically an accounting model. A system of equa-
tions describes the economic and demographic structure of the economic
system. In turn parameters of the equations and a set of exogenous
variable inputs provide the numerical basis for utilizing the model
for projection purposes. It is the determination of parameters for
the model that distinguishes SCIMP from econometric models.
In an econometric model, parameters are typically determined by the
application of econometric methods to historical time series or cross
section data and the parameter estimates are an integral component of
the model. In the case of SCIMP the parameters are determined exog-
enously by a variety of means, including point estimates, assumptions
based on other research, and in some instances by econometric esti-
mation techniques. In other words, in SCIMP both the parameters and
exogenous variable data are inputs, while in an econometric model the
parameter estimates are an integral part of the model.
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There are both advantages and shortcomings to this approach. On the [~
positive side, SCIMP is generally applicable to small regional
economies, rather than being region specific, as waul d be the case [
with an econometric model. This results in substantially more limited [-
data requirements than is the case for a fully estimated econometric ~
_ __________ ______ mo_d_eJ._ _Ihe __ "?bf.l.r_t~vmlng __ is. _aJ_S..Q __ indic_r.l._t-.e_d __ !)y __ t,_bft~l~~s_.5J:.d_nge oj:. __ d_ata._____ . __________ t __
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requirements. Specifically, the quality of the parameter estimates
may not be as great as that obtained by econometric techniques.
However, the costs are substantially less.
We can now turn to a discussion of the assumptions utilized in
developing the base case projections. Since distinct sets of assump-
tions are necessary for each of the models, these will be considered
in turn.
The Base Case Assumptions: The MAP Models
The impact of OCS development on the economy will be measured as the
change in the development scenario from the base case scenario. The
base case scenario is that which is projected to occur without the OCS
lease sale of interest. This section describes the base case scenario
which will be used in this study.
A set of assumptions about the future 1 evel s of various exogenous
economic activities defines a development scenario. There are five
types of assumptions required for the MAP model development scenarios.
These are assumptions about the future level of national variables
which directly.or indirectly affect Alaska economic activity; assump-
tions about employment requirements of special projects, such as the
gas pipeline; assumptions about the employment requirements for
exogenous industry and government sectors of the Alaska economy; an
_ ~-_ _ _ _ _ ' __ i3--~ ~ l!_JI!P!-i Q_n __ ~.§. _1:Q_t_~_g~ lll!II!Pl!l' _ Q f__ i:_Q!J_Y'_l s t_s ____ \\'hQ .. wU_l_yj_~ it_f\J§ s ls_ei_;_ gfl(:f_ ______ _
L_;
[
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assumptions about State government revenues and expenditures.
116
Our use of assumptions in developing the base case scenarios does not
mean that we are predicting that all or any of these events will
occur, since there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the
levels and timing of the events in these scenarios. What it does mean
is that with a certain degree of probability, we expect the general
level of economic activity to follow this scenario. We assume that
there is a medium probability that the level of activity will be at
least as great as that described by this scenario.
Primarily as a result of the uncertainty attached to the occurrence,
magnitude, and timing of any particular event, agreement about partic-
ular scenarios is hard to achieve even among those most knowledgeable
about the Alaska economy. Emphasizing our concern mainly with general
levels of activity, the probabilistic nature of the specific scenario
should reduce the disagreement.
Our base case assumptions are summarized in Table 48. They include
national variable assumptions, project assumptions, industry and
government assumptions, tourism assumptions, and government policy
assumptions. Below we present a detailed description of these assump-
tions.
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-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------L---
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117 L
[
TABLE 48. SUMMARY OF BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS:
[
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r:
[
Assumptions
National Variables Assumptions
1. U.S. Inflation Rate
2. Average Weekly Earnings
3. Real Per Capita Income
Special Project Assumptions
1. Trans-Alaska Pipeline
2. Alaska Natural Gas
Transportation System
3. Prudhoe Bay Petroleum
Prod.uct ion
4. Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum
Production.
5. National Petroleum Reserve
in Alaska
6. OCS Development
7. Beluga-Chuitna Coal
Production
-6------------------------------------·-
[
l
MAP MODELS
Description
Growth in consumer prices slows to 7.5 percent
annually by 1985.
Growth in average weekly earnings rises to
8 percent annually by 1985.
Growth in real per capita income rises to
2 percent annually by 1985.
Construction of 4 additional pumping stations
provides 90 jobs through 1982; operating em-
ployment remains constant at 1,500.
Construction employment peaks at 10,589 in
1986. Long-term transportation and petroleum
sector employment average 319.
Construction employment on Prudhoe water
flooding project peaks at over 1,000 in 1983.
Permanent operating employment rises to 1667
in 1983.
Employment remains at 1979 level of 778.
Development and production from 5 oil fields
and construction of 525 miles of pipeline
provide between 500 and 1,000 jobs after 1985.
Exploration employment only for sales CI, 55,
57, 60, and 70. Development of Sale 71 lease
(Beaufort Sea) area results in maximum employ-
ment of 1,756 in 1994. Development of Sale BF
lease area results in maximum employment of
1,082 in 1989.
Eventual export of 4.4 million tons per year
provides total employment of 524.
118
Assumptions Description
Industry and Government Assumptions
1. Other Mining Activity
2. Agriculture
3. Logging and Sawmi 11
Employment
4. Commercial Fishing:
Non-Bottomfish
5. Bottomfish Harvesting
and Processing
6. Federal Civilian
Employment
7. Federal Military
Tourism Assumptions
Policy Assumptions
Employment increases from a 1979 level of 3,140
at 1 percent annually.
Expansion results in employment of over 1,000
by 2000.
Employment increases from 2,204 · in 1980 to
4,103 in 2000.
Employment levels in fishing and fish proc-
essing remain constant at 6,323 and 7l123,
respectively.
Resident employment rises from 284 in 1981 to
5,518 in 2000.
Rises at 0.5 percent annual rate from 17,915 in
1979 to 19,893 in 2000.
Employment remains constant at 23,333.
Number of tourists visiting Alaska rises at
4 percent annua 1 rate from 505,400 in 1979 to
over 1.1 million by 2000.
Exogenous revenues from petroleum production
taxes, roy a 1 ty payments, property taxes, and
special corporate taxes peak at about $10
billion annually by 1989. Real per capita
expenditures grow in proportion to the growth
in real per capita income.
119
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NATIONAL VARIABLES ASSUMPTIONS
Inasmuch as Alaska is an open economy, it is affected by changes in
the national economy. Consequently, several assumptions about the
future growth of the U.S. economy are required. First, a forecast of
average weekly earnings in the United States is required as an input
into the estimation of Alaskan wage rates. Second, the Alaskan price
level is tied in part to the national price level so that a forecast
of the U.S. consumer price index is needed. Finally, inasmuch as a
major determinant of migration to Alaska is the income differential
between Alaska and the lower 48, a forecast is required of real per
capita disposable income in the United States.
In 1979, consumer prices in the United States rose 11.5 percent,
average weekly earnings grew 7.5 percent, and real per capita dis-
posable income grew by 0.5 percent. In the base case, it is assumed
that the growth in U.S. consumer prices slows to a long run rate of
7.5 percent by 1985, that the growth in average weekly earnings rises
to a 1 ong run rate of 8 percent by 1985, and that rea 1 per capita
personal income growth rises 2 percent annually by the mid-80s.
SPECIAL PROJECTS ASSUMPTIONS
Wi_dely differing special projects with major implications for future
Alaskan development have been proposed by a variety of federal and
state agencies and private developers. Each project generates direct
[ _________ ~mp J ()~m~!l~ in one or more of the sectors of the A 1 askan econOIJlY
I .
L
[ 120
treated as exogenous by the MAP forecasting model. The sectors are
manufacturing, mining, and parts of the construction and transpor-
tation sectors. This section presents our assumptions as to the
direct employment generated by each of th·e major projects either
currently in operation or proposed.
1. Trans-Alaska Pipeline (Alyeska
Trans-Alaska Pipeline assumptions are given in Table 49. Trans-Alaska
Pipeline Service (TAPS) employment through 1977 included only the
exogenous construction employment engaged in the initial construction
of the pipeline. Employment since completion in 1977 and future
employment is of two types. These are additional construction of four
pump stations (see Oil and Gas Journal, 2/25/80, p. 72), and exogenous
tra:nsportat ion sector emp 1 oyment associ a ted with operation of the
1 i ne.
2. Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System
In December 1980, the Northwest Alaska Pipeline Company received
rights of way for the Alaskan portion of a 4,800 mile pipeline to
transport natural gas from Prudhoe Bay to the United States West Coast
and Midwest (see Oil and Gas Journal, 12/8/80, p. 50). Employment
projections for this project are shown in Table 50. Construction of
the 741-mile Alaskan portion of the line and an accompanying gas
conditioning plant on the North Slope was assumed to get underway in
---1981-.and.---tO--:--be~ ope-~ationa:t--by-1987-. ---Const~uct:i-on-employment~-was--
. '
expected to peak ·at 10,589 in 1986, falling to a long-term total of
319 persons in transportation and petroleum sector employment.
121
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L •
[
r 1980
1981
1982
[ 1983
1984
1985
1986
[ 1987
1988
1989
1990
L 1991
1992
19'33
l994
1995
[ 1996
~997
1998
1999
[ 2000
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TABLE 49 . TRANS-ALA_SKA PIPELINE Et;1PLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMCNX1 EMT9X MTOTB 804 B09 B24 826
El'tCNXl
Et•1T9X
MTOT
0.09 1.5 1. 59 0.474 o. 169 0.079 0.316 0.09 1.5 1. 59 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.09 1.5 1. 59 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.406 o. 1.5 ·1. 5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0:079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 .1. 5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1.5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 o. 1.5 1. 5 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316
=
=
Exogenous employment in· high wage construction (thousands)
Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands)
= Total exogenous employment (thousands)
B29
0.552·
0.642
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552 .
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
0.552
B04
809
=
=
Basic sector employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Fairbanks census division (thousands)
B24 =
B26 =
829 =
SOURCE:
Basic sector employment, S.E. Fairbanks census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Valdez/Chitina/\1hittier census division
(thousands)
Basic sector employment, Yukon Koyukuk census division (thousands)
Construction estimate based on assumed installation of four
pump stations adding capacity of .15 mmbd each, from Beaufort
OCS Development Scenarios, Davis and Moore, 1978.
Operations employment from Alaska Economic Trends, Ak. Dol,
October 1978.
122
980
981
982
983
,984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
19'38
1999
:woo
EMP9
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.
0. 1 G
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
TABLE 50. ALASKA NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMCNX1 EMT9X MTOT 804 809
0. 0. o. o. o.
0.217 0. 0.217 0.046 0.069
0.217 0. 0.217 0.046 0.069
0.563 o. 0.563 0.209 0.225
2.435 0. . 2.435 0. 787 0.741
7. 103 0. 7. 103 2.207 1. 637
10.589 0. 10.749 2.997 2.062
6.074 0. 119 6.393 1. 663 1. 491
0.468 0. 119 0.787. 0.331 0. 145
0. 0. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
0. o. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
o. 0. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
o. o. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
0. 0. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
o. o. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
o. 0. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
0. 0. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
0. o. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
o. o. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
o. 0. 119 0.319 0.228 0.008
0. o. 1 19 0.319 0.228 0.008
= Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
824
o.
0.037
0.037
0.047
0.33
1. 185
2.069
1 . 191
0. 126
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
0.043
= Exogenous employment in high wage construction (thousands)
825
o.
0.065
0.065
0.082
0.577
2.074
3.621
2.048
0. 185
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
[
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[
[
[
[ EIW9
HiCNXl
El-iT9X
HTOT
B04
B09
B24
B25
= Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands) [~ ... ·
= Total exogenous employment (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Fairbanks census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, S.E. Fairbanks census division {thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Upper Yukon census division (thousands)
SOURCE: M. fljogford and S. Goldsmith, "The Relationship between the
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline and State and Local Government
Expenditures," Institute of Social and Economic Research,
1980.
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Although construction did not begin in 1981, total Northwest Alaskan
Pipeline Company employment for the year actually averaged 347 (North-
west Alaskan Pipeline Company), somewhat higher than the figure of 217
assumed for 1981. The employment assumptions used also reflect the
delays in construction expected to result from factors such as the
current lawsuit against the pipeline financing waivers recently passed
by Congress.
3. Prudhoe Bay Petroleum Production
Prudhoe Bay petroleum production assumptions are shown in Table 51.
This employment includes that associated with primary recovery opera-
tions from the Sadlerochit formation, secondary recovery (using water
flooding) of that formation, new developments of the Kuparuk formation
west of Prudhoe Bay, and the permanent work force of At 1 antic Rich-
field Company (ARCO) and British Petroleum (BP) at the main Prudhoe
base headquarters. The key assumptions serving as the basis for the
employment forecasts are the following:
• Seven rigs (4 Sohio, 3 ARCO) continue development drilling at a
rate of 14 wells per year per rig through 1983 (based on esti-
mated activity in Oil and Gas Journal, 2/25/80, p. 88).
• The proposed Prudhoe water flooding project begins in 1981 and is
completed by 1985, adding approximately 1 billion barrels of
E-------------_!'ecoverable reserves to Prudhoe. Construction employment peaks
[
[ 124
1980
1981
19S2
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1S93
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2COO
TABLE 51. PRUDHOE BAY PETROLEUM PRODUCTION
.EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
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EMP9 EMCNX2 MTOT 804 [
[
E!I:P9
HIJCNX2
t-HOT
B04
SOURCE:
2.369 0.
2.907 0.035
3.018 0.491
3. 129 1.065
2.202 0.484
2.502 0.05
2.502 0.
2.502 0.
2.502 o.
2.502 0.
2.502 o.
2.502 o.
2.502 0.
2.502 o.
2.502 o.·,
2.502 0.
2.502 o.
2.502 0.
2.502 0.
2.502 0.
2.502 0.
2.369 2.369
2.942 2.942
3.509 3.509
4. 194 4. 194
2.686 2.686
2.552 2.552
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2 .. 502
2.502 2.502
2.502 2.502
[
[
[
[
[
=
=
Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands) [
Exogenous employment in average wage construction (thousands) ;
=
=
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands) r-
Construction employment is that associated with Prudhoe
v:aterflood project, from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,
Final EIS, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield Waterflood Project,
pp. 2-60. For mining employment sources, see text.
125
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at over 1,000 in 1983, and operations employment adds 300 to the
permanent Prudhoe work force (Corps of Engineers, 1980).
• The Kuparuk formation west of Prudhoe is developed. Production
at a rate of 50,000 bbls. per day begins in December 1981, rising
to 80,000 bbls. per day in 1982 and rising to 250,000 bbls. per
day by 1986 (Oil and Gas Journal, 12/21/81, p. 32).
• Permanent ARCO and BP emp 1 oyment on the North Slope rises from
1,000 in 1977 to 1,667 in 1983, remaining constant thereafter
(based on Prudhoe Bay Case Study, OCS Program Technical Report
No. 4).
• Ten additional rigs are active in exploration and development
outside of the Sadlerochit reservoir.
4. Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production
Petroleum sector employment in the Kenai-Cook Inlet Census Division
was 778 in 1979 (four quarter average employment, taken from Alaska
Department of Labor, Statistical Quarterly, 1979 issues), consisting
of exploration, development, and production associated with the Kenai
oil and gas fields. Currently, the 120,000 barrels per day output of
o i 1 is expected to dec 1 i ne drastically over the forecast period,
possibly as fast as 15-20 percent per year. The decline may be
partially slow~d, however, by_ a p()ssible re~rilling program beJf19 __
considered by the operators (see Oil and Gas Journal, 2/4/80, p. 36);
126
and in any case, the prospects for gas development are brighter than
those for oil. Gas production is likely to expand from its current
5,000 MMCF per day once the LNG facility proposed by Pacific Lighting
and Pacific Gas and Electric (see below) are constructed even without
any substantial new discoveries. It is assumed that these increases,
coupled with continued exploration activity and possible enhanced
recovery of oil, will be adequate to maintain Upper Cook Inlet petro-
leum employment at its 1978 level throughout the forecast period, as
shown in Table 52.
5. Development of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A)
The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska {previously NPR-4) has been
the target of publicly sponsored exploration for oil and gas since
World War II, first by the Navy and later by the Interior Department.
The first exploration program began in 1944 and ended in 1953, after
discovery of nine oil and gas fields, all but one being noncommercial
(the largest gas field, the Barrow gas field, currently produces for
local consumption). In 1974 Congress directed the Navy to resume
exploration, eventually transferring the program to the Department of
Interior in 1977. To date, this most recent exploration program has
produced 22 dry holes and several test wells planned or in progress
(Oil and Gas Journal, 12/8/80, p. 36).
Nonetheless, USGS estimates that NPR-A can be expected to contain 5.96
billion barrelS_ _of_Qil ln place and_ll.J trilU_Qn__c;_ullJc: feet_Qf gas,_
. . .
about 26 perc.ent-of which is likely to be recoverable. A study of
127
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[
E
[
[
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[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
EMDO l II.;,/
tHOT
Bl2
SOURCE:
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
198£
1990
199t
1992
1992
1SS4
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
TABLE 52. UPPER COOK INLET PETROLEUM PRODUCTION
·EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
..
~ ;.-
EMP9 MTOl 812
0.778 0. 778 0.778 0. 778 0.778 o. 778
0. 778. 0. 778 0.778
0. 778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0. 778 .... 0.778 0. 778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0. 778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0. 778 o. 778 . 0.778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0.778 o:778
0.778 0.778 o:778
0.778 0.778 0.778
0.778 0. 778 o. 778
= Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
=.Total exogenous employment (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet census division (thousands)
See text.
128
a 1 ternat i ve methods for deve 1 opment of the reserve was camp 1 eted in
1979 by Interior (see Final Report of the 105(b) Economic and Policy
Analysis, 12/15/79). In late 1980, Congress passed legislation
requiring that the reserve be opened to private leasing by 1982 (Oil
and Gas Journal, 12/8/80). Interior held the first sale on January
27, 1982.
It is assumed that five commercial fields are discovered and devel-
oped, representing 1.85 billion barrels of oil and 3.73 trillion cubic
feet of gas, as described in the mean scenario of the Interior 105(b)
study. Construction associated with the development includes 525
mi 1 es of pipe 1 i ne. Construction emp 1 oyment peaks at about 600 fo 1-
1 owing each of the several discoveries. Petro 1 eum sector emp 1 oyment
averages about 250/year, and pipeline operation adds 69 to the
transportation sector work force, as shown in Table 53.
6. OCS Development
Prior to the scheduled date of OCS Sale 75, eight other OCS sales will
have occurred, as follows:
Sale
46
CI
BF
55
60
71
57
70
Location
Gulf of Alaska
Lower Cook Inlet
Beaufort Sea
Gulf of Alaska
Lower Cook Inlet
Beaufort Sea
Bering-Norton
St. George
129
Date
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982
1983
[
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[
c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
--------E
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
[
[
[
[~
~ .
[
[
[
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1958
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Ei"tP9 =
£t.'ICNX2 =
Et-1T9X =
~HOT =
B02 =
B04 =
TABLE 53 .
EMP9
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.044
0.088
0. 115
0.222.
0.177
I o. 187
0. 177
0.204
0.267
0.222
0.232
0.222
0.249
0.312
0.267
0.277
0.267
NATIONAL PETROLEUM RESERVE I~
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMCNX2 EMT9X MTOT
0. 0. 0 ..
0. 0. 0.
0.038 o. 0.038
0.038 o. 0.038
0. 132 0. 0. 176
0.494 0. 0.582
0.55 o. 0.665
0.383 o. 0.605
0. 157 0.054 0.388
0. 271 0.069 0.527
0.546 0.069 0.792
0.587 0.069 0.86
0.383 0.069 0.719
0. 157 0.069 . 0.448
II I II C" V /'.
~~ ..... r-.-·."" .
802
o.
0.
o.
o.
0.004
0.009
0.012
0.022
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.02
0.027
0.022
0.271 0.069 0.572-0.023
0.546 0.069 0.837 0.022
0.587 0.069 0.905 0.025
0.383 0.069 0.764 0.031
o. 157 0.069 0.493 0.027
0.271 0.069 0.617 0.028
0.546 0.069 0.882 0.027
in m1n1ng (thousands)
804
0.
o.
0.038
0.038
·o. 112
0.573
0.653
0.583
o. 37
0.508
0. 774.
0.84
0.692
0.426
0.549
0.815
0.88
0.733
o. 466
0.589
0.855
Exogenous employment
Exogenous employment in average wage construction (thousands)
Exogenous employment 1n transportation (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
SOURCE: See text.
-E-------------------------------------------------------------------------
[
130
The first Gulf of Alaska sale (Sale 46) resulted in the drilling of
ten dry ho 1 es, and exp 1 oration has ended in these tracts. Di sap-
pointing results of exploration on tracts leased in Lower Cook Inlet
(Sale CI) in 1977 also resulted at least temporarily in a halt to
exploration there. Exploration is currently underway on tracts leased
in the 1979 Beaufort sale and the 1980 Gulf of Alaska sale, and new
leasing in Lower Cook Inlet has just occurred.
In the base case, no future employment is assumed to result from
Sale 46. In addition, it is assumed that no recoverable resources are
discovered on tracts leased in sales CI, 55, 57, 60 and 70; that is,
such sales are assumed to generate only exploration employment. The
level of recoverable resources in the remaining two sales is assumed
to be the USGS estimated mean for the areas, as shown in Table 54.
TABLE 54. ASSUMED OCS OIL AND GAS DISCOVERIES, BASE CASE
Sale
BF
71
Location
Beaufort Sea
Beaufort Sea
Recoverable Oil
. 75 BBO
2.38 BBO
Recoverable Gas
1. 625 TCFG
1. 78 TCFG
SOURCES: U.S Department of the Interior, Final Environmental
Impact Statement, Proposed Federal-State Oil and Gas
Lease Sale, Beaufort Sea, p. 6; U.S. Department of
the Interior, Draft Environmental Impact Statement,
Proposed Oil and Gas Lease Sale 71, Diapir Field (De-
cember 1981), page xii.
Exploration in 1982 on Sale CI is assumed to provide 38 jobs in mining
and 9 jobs in tran~portation, with 4 of these jobs located in the
Anchorage Census Division. No subsequent employment is provided by
131
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[·~
..
[
[
[
[ . ..,
-~
E-
[
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
['
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
L
[
[
[
Sale CI. The levels of employment assumed for the rP!".:~ning six OCS
sales are shown in Tables 55-60.
6. Beluga-Chuitna Coal Production
USGS has 1 ong recognized the potentia 1 economic significance of a
large number of beds of subbituminous coal on the west side of Cook
Inlet near Tyonek (see USGS, Coal Resources of Alaska, 1967). Re-
cently, several alternative proposals for developing the Beluga-
Chuitna fields for export to Japan or other Pacific rim locations have
been considered (see Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Beluga Coal Field
Development: Social Effects and Management Alternatives, 1979, and
Bechtel, Preliminary Feasibility Study: Coal Export Program, Chuitna
River Field, Alaska, 1980).
The base case scenario assumes that a coal export program is imple-
mented beginning in 1985. Production begins in 1989 and eventually
reaches 4.4 tons per year. Construction begins in 1985, with peak
employment of 400 in 1987. Operations employment is 524 distributed
80 percent in mining and 20 percent in transportation, as shown in
Table 61.
INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT ASSUMPTIONS
In addition to the project-specific assumptions described above, other
portions of the exogenous sectors are affected by trends and events
which must be anticipat~cl, altholjgh th~y a_re not as dire,ctJy_traceable
132
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
PiP9 =
E:·iCNXl =
MTOT =
B02 =
804 =
SOURCE:
TABLE 55. OC~ SALE BF (BEAUFORT SEA)
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMP9 EMCNX1 802 804
o. o. 0. 0.
0.066 0.062 0.008 0. 12
0.197 0. 188 0.024 0.361
0. 197 0. 135 0.024 9.308
0.23 0. 211 0.028 0.413
0.066 o. 15 0.01 0.206
0. 112 0.305 0.01 0.407
0.276 0.383 0.01 0.649
0.479 0.466 0.021 0.924
0.616 0.466 0.036 1.046
0.595 o. 155 0.042 o. ios
0.524 0. 155 0.038 0.641
0.503 0.077 0.037 0.543
0.432 0. 155 0.033 0.554
0.435 0. 155 0.033 0.557
0.438 0.077 0.033 0.482
0.44 0.022 0.033 0.429
0. 417 o. 0.032 0.385
0.393 0. 0.032 0.361
0. 393 0. 0.032 0.361
0.394 0. 0.032 0.362
Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
MTOT
o.
0. 128
0.385
0.332
o. 441
0.216
0.417
0.659
0.945
1.082
0. 75
0.679
0.58
0.587
0.59
0.515
0.462
o. 417
0.393
0.393
0.394
Exooenous employment in high wage construction (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
U.S. Department of the Interior, Final Environmental Impact
Statement, Proposed Federal-State Oil and Gas Lease Sale,
Beaufort Sea..
133
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
-[~-
-"
L
L
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
[
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
1980
1981
1S82
1963
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
•1998
1999
2000
EHP9
H-lT9X
fHOT
B02
Bll
SOURCE:
G------_,------
l
=
=
=
=
=
--TABLE '16 -""'_,....C: t' !\I r-:. '":" I ':'II r:'" i\1: (\ 1 {\C:_l/ 1\\ ~ o U\.....1. ~.·,Lt. ..J..J ~ \.iUI.-1 Jo , -· ,_,,v;}
·EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMP9 EMT9X MTOT B11
0. 0. 0. 0.
0.03 0.013 0.043 0.014
0.03 0.028 0.058 0.024
0.03 0.028 0.058 0.024
0.03 0.02 . 0.05 0.019
0. 0.007 0.007 0.005
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. 0~
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. o.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
802
o.
0.03
0.034
0.034
0.032
0.002
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
0.
o.
o.
0.
0.
o.
o.
o.
o.
0.
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Southeast Alaska (thousands)
U.S. Department of the Interior, Final Environmental Impact
Statement, Proposed Federal-State Oil and Gas Lease Sale,
Northern Gulf of Alaska.
134
1980
1'38~
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
i9c:?O
1991
1992
1993
~994
1995
1996
1997
1998
~999
2000
Et:iP9
EHCNXl
EHT9X
f·HOT
802
Bl2
SOURCE:
TP.BLE 57 . OCS SALE 60 ( LOHER COOK INLET)
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMP9 EMCNX1 EMT9X MTOT 802
o. o. 0. 0. o.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0.038 0.028 0.009 0.075 0.004
0.083 0. 0.026 0.109 0.008
0.09 0. 0.033. 0. 123 0.009
0.075 0. 0.017 0.092 0.008
0.038 0. 0.009 0.047 0.004
0. o. o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. o. o.
0. o. o. 0. 0.
o. o. o. 0. o.
0. 0. o. o. 0.
o. o. o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. o. o.
o. o. o. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o. o. 0.
0. 0. o. 0. o.
0. 0. o. 0. o.
o. o. 0. 0. o.
= Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
812
. 0.
o.
0.071
o. 101
0. 114
0.084
0.043
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.
o.
o.
o.
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.
= Exogenous employment in high wage construction (thousands)
= Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands)
=·Total exogenous employment (thousands)
= gasic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
= Basic sector employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet census division (thousands) [
[ U.S. Department of the Interior, Final Environmental Impact
Statement, Proposed Federal-State Oil and Gas Lease Sale,
Lower Cook Inlet. ·
135
[
---·---C-
[
I.
L
[
TABLE 58. OCS SALE 71 (BEAJFORT SEA) EMPLOYMENT ASSUM~tlONS
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
__ ,... -... ~ ~ .. -_.;:::..,-:_~-:.,.,::..
1980
19131
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
199.1;
1995
1996
1927
1998
1999
2000
E~~pg
H1CNX2
E!1T9X
fHOT
802
804
SOURCE:
E-.. --------
l
[
=
=
=
=
=
=
...
•< ..
EMP9 EMCNX2 EMT9X MTOT 802
..
804
-~ .... ..:· ..
0. 0. o. 0. < ' 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. o. o. 0. o. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. o. o. 0. 0.037 o. 0.037 o. 0.037 0.032 0. 0.007 0.04 0.003 0.036 0.052 0. 0.017 0.069 0.005 0.063 0.053 0. 0.018 0.072 0.005 0.066 0.052 0. 0.017 . 0.069. 0.005 0.063 o. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.076 0. 0.076. o. 0.076 1.205 0.077 o. 1. 282 0. 121 1. 162 1. 354 0.035 0.09 1 .478 .' 0.135 1. 343 1. 394 ' 0. 0.247 1. 64 0.139 1. 501 1.394 0. 0.363 1.756 0. 139 1. 617 1:408 0. 0.363 1.771 o. 141 1.63 1. 178 0. 0.363 1.541 0. 118 1.423 0.97 o. 0.363 ,1. 333 0.097 1. 236 0.97 0. 0.363' 1. 333 . 0.097 1. 236 0.985 0. 0. 363 :1.348. 0.099 1. 249 0.996 0. 0.363 1. 358 0. 1 1. 259 ,. ... .. .. "·i
1 .• ~ --.:...~~;. ·.
.. ·--_,... .. __ ~--····-
'
Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
Exogenous employment in average wage construction (thousands)
Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
Alaska OCS Office, Statewide and Re ional Economic and
Demographic Systems, Beaufort Sea 71 Impact Analysis
Technical Report #62, Alaska OCS Office Social and Eco-
nomic Studies Program.
136
1980
~981
19[:2
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
El1P9 =
HiCNXl =
E!-H9X =
!-'!TOT =
B02 =
818 -
SOURCE:
EMP9
0.
0.
0.
0.026
0.056
0.03
o.
0.
o.
o.
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.
TABLE 59. OCS SALE 57 (BERING NORTON)
· tMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EI!.CNX1 EMT9X MTOT. 802
o. -\ 0. o. o. o. o. o. o. 0. o. 0.015 0.041
0.005 0.031 0.092
0.005 0.016 0.051 o. 0. o. o. 0. o. o. 0. o.
0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o.
0. o. o.
o. o. 0.
o. o. o.
o. 0. 0.
o. o. o.
o. 0. o.
o. 0. 0 ..
o. o. 0.
o. o. o.
0. 0. 0.
Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
818
0. o.
o. 0.
o. 0.
0.003 0.038
0.006· 0.086
0.003 0.048
o. 0.
o. 0.
o. 0.
0. o.
o. 0 .•
o. o.
0. 0.
o. 0.
o. o.
o. 0.
0. 0.
o. 0.
o. 0.
o. 0.
o. 0.
Exogenous employment in average wage construction (thousands)
Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Nome census division (thousands)
.. Alaska OCS Office, Bering-Norton Petroleum Development
Scenarios, Economic and Demographic Analysis, Technical
·[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
Report #50, Alaska OCS Office Social and Economic Studies ~-.•
---------Program~.------------------------------c-
137
l
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
~989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
~998
1999
2000
EI~PS =
EHT9X =
t-HOT =
SOl =
B02 =
SOURCE:
TABLE 60 . ·6~S SALE 70 (ST. GEORGE)
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMP9 EMT9X MTO"I:. 801
0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.
0. o. 0. 0.
0.05 0.023 0.073 0.068
0.064 0.037 0.101 0.095
0.072 0.046 0. 118 0. 111
0.065 0.039 0.104 0.097 0.044 0.008 0.052 0.048 0. 0. o. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0., 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. o. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. o. 0. 0. 0.···. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. ., o.
o. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. o. o.
Exogenous employment in mining (thousands)
Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
802
0.
o.
0.
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.006
0.004
0.
0.
0.
o.
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
Basic Sector Employment, Aleutian Islands census division (thousands)
Sa sic sector employment, Anchorag_~ _ce:_ns~s_ 9jvi ~ion (thousands)
Alaska OCS Office, St. George Petroleum Development Scenarios
and Economic Analysis, OCS Technical Report # , Alaska
OCS Office Social and Economic Studies Progra~
138
H'tP9 =
EHCNX2 =
Ef.H9X =
I HOT =
Bl2 =
SOURCE:
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
TABLE 61. BELUGA CHUITNA COAL PRODUCTION
-~MPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMP9 EMCNX2 EMT9X 812
o. 0. o. 0. o. o. o. 0. o. o. o. 0. o. 0. o. 0. o. 0. o. o. o. 0. 15 o. 0. 15 o. 0.3 o. 0.3 o. 0.4 0. 0.4 o. 0.35 o. 0.35 o. 0.2 o. 0.2
0.21 0. 1 0.053 0,36~
0.419 o. 0.105 0.524
0.419 0. o. 105 0.524
0.419 0. o. 105 0.524
0.419 0.' o. 105 0.524
0.419 0. 0.·105 0.524
0.419 o. 0.105 0.524
0.419 0. 0. 10~ 0.524
0.419 o. o. 105 0.524
0.419" 0. o. 105 0.524
0.419 o. 0. 105 0.524
Exogenous employment in m1n1ng (thousands)
..
.
Exogenous employment in average wage construction (thousands)
Exogenous employment in transportation (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet census division (thousands)
Construction employment based on Battelle Pacific Northwest
Laboratories, Beluga Coal Field Development: Social Effects
and Management Alternatives, 1979. Other employment based
on Bechtel, Preliminary Feasibility Study: Coal Export Pro-
gram, Chuitna River Field, Alaska, 1980.
139
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
,. E---------
[
L
to specific development projects. These sectors include the fal-
lowing: the portion of mining sector emp 1 oyment not accounted for by
the above projects, which will be called 11 other mining 11 ; agricultural
employment; logging and sawmill employment; fish harvesting and pro-
cessing employment; and federal government employment. We turn now to
a discussion of the assumptions used to project employment in these
sectors.
1. Other Mining Activity
In 1979, total mining sector employment in Alaska was 5,773, of which
5,354 was in oil and gas. Of this, 2,633 was accounted for by proj-
ects discussed above. The residual, or 3,140, is classified as 11 other
mining. 11 It consists of administrative personne 1 in Anchorage asso-
ciated with minerals industries, a variety of petroleum exploration
activities on the North Slope and elsewhere not broken down by project
(i.e., the Husky operation in NPR-A, various drilling contractors on
state and native lands, seismic work being conducted offshore prior to
OCS lease sales, etc.), and hardrock mining activities.
In the base case, it is assumed that such emp 1 oyment increases from
its current level at a rate of one percent annually, as shown in
Table 62.
2. Agriculture
Currently, agriculture represents a very small sector of the Alaskan
economy, consisting of less than 200 persons, primarily in the
Matanuska-Susitna and Fairbanks census divisions.
140
[
TABLE 62. 11 0THER,. MINING 11 EI•1PLOYI~ENT ASSUMPTIONS ,-[
[
--
EMP9 801 802 804 805 BOB 809 811 -~
1!?50 3. 171 0.015 1. 995 0.805 0.004 0.053 0.032 0.039
1981 3.203 0.015 2.015 0.813 0.004 0.053 0.033 0.04
..
1982 3.235 0.016 2.035 0.821 0.004 0.054 0.033 0.04
1983 3.267 0.016 2.056 0.829 0.004 0.054 0.033 0.041
1984 3.3 0.016 2.07€ 0.838 • 0.004 0.055 0.034 0.041
[
[-
1955 3.333 0.016 2.097 0.846 0.004 0.055 0.034 0.041
1986 3.367 0.016 2. 119 0.855 0.004 0.056 0.034 0.042
1987 3.4 0.016 2.139 0.863 0.004 0.056 0.035 0.042
1988 3.434 0.016 2. 161 0.872 0.004 0.057 0.035 0.043 [
1989 3.469 0.017 2. 183 0.88 0.005 0.058 0.035 0.043
1990 3.503 0.017 2.204 0.889 0.005 0.058 0.036 0.043
1991 3.538 0.017 2.226 0.898 0.005 0.059 0.036 0.044
1992 3. 574. 0.017 2.249 0.907 0.005 0.059 0.036 0.044
1393 3.609 0.017 2.271 0.916 0.005 0.06 0.037 0.045
[
1994 3.645 0.017 2.293 0.925 0.005 0.061 0.037 0.045
1S95 3.632 0.018 2.317 0.934 0.005 0.061 0.038 0.046
1996 3.719 0.018 2.34 0.944 0.005 0.062 0.038 0.046
1997 3.756 0.018 2.363 0.953 0.005 0.062 0.038 0.047
1998 3.793 0.018 2.387 0.963 0.005 0.063 0.039 0.047
~999 3.831 0.018 2.41 0.972 0.005 0.064 0.039 0.048
2000 3.869 0.019 2.434 0.982 0.005 0.064 0.039 0.048
••• •• i -.. ·-;· .;
[
[
---
[
----:·--·· -·
·'· . ~:-~-814 816 817 818 821 825 826 827 829 _[ . 0.003 0.098 0.017 0.01 • t 38(1. 0.002 0.004 0.004 0. 0.089
1981 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.099 0.017 0.01 0.004 0. 0.09
1932 0.002 0.004 0·.003 o. 1 0.017 0.01 0.004 0. 0.091
1983 0.002 0.004 0.003 o. 101 0.018. 0.01 0.004 0. 0.091
1984 0.002 0.004 -· -· 0.003 .0.102 0.018 0.011 0.004 o. 0.092
~985 0.002 0.004 · ··o:oo·3 0.103 0.0}1'1 0.011 0.004 0. 0.093
1986 0.002· 0.004 0.003 0.104 0.0' 0.011 0.004 0. 0.094
1987 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.105 0.01~ 0.011 0.004 0. 0.095
1S88 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.106 0.019 0.011 0.004 0. 0.096
1989 0.002 0.005 0.003 o. 107 0.019. 0.011 0.005 0. 0.097
1990 0.002 0.005 0.004 0. 108 0.019 0.011 0.005 0. 0.098
1991 0.002 O.OC5 0.004 0.109 0.019 0.011 0.005 0. 0.099
1992 0.002 0.005 0.004 o. t 1 0.019 0.011 0.005 0. 0. 1
1993 0.002 0.005 0.004 0. 112 0.019 0.012 0.005 0. o. 101
1994 0.002 0.005 0.004 o. 113 0.02 0.012 0.005 o. 0.102
1~95 0.002 0.005 0.004 0. 114 0.02 0.012 0.005 0. 0.103
1996 0.002 0.005 0.004 0. 115 0.02 0.012 0.005 o. 0.104
1997 0.002 0.005 0.004 o. 116 0.02 0.012 0.005 0. o. 105
1998 0.002 0.005 0.004· o. 117 0.02 0.012 0.005 0. 0.106
1999 0.002 0.005 0.004 0. 118 0.021 0.012 0.005 0. 0.107
2000 0.002 0.005 ·o.oo4 0. 12 0.021 .. 0.012 0.005 o. 0.108
[
[
[
[
[
---·-'"'":,"".·, ··---:-~ .. ·'
' .-"'.-
-E-
[
141 [
[
[
[
[
[
[
[~
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
~
HiP9
BOl
B02
B04
805
808
E09
Bll
814
Bl6
Bl7
Bl8
,821
B25
826
829
SOURCE:
= Exogenous employment·i~ m1n1ng (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Aleutian Islands census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Bethel census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Cordova/McCarthy census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Fairbanks census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Southeast Alaska (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Kobuk census division (thousands)
·-Basic sector employment, Kuskokwim census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Matanuska/Susitna census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Nome census ·division (thousand?)
= Basic sector employment, Seward census division (thousands)
=
=
=
Basic sector employment, Upper Yukon census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Valdez/Chitina/Whittier census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Yukon Koyukuk census division (thousands)
1979 values from Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical
Quarterly, thereafter assumed to gro~ at ohe percent annually.
G ------, __ ---~ -------------
[
[ 142
'
In the base case, it is assumed that after 1982, state support of an
agricultural industry results in expansion of the existing industry to
over 1,000 persons by the year 2000, as shown in Table 63.
These assumptions are based on scenarios for agricultural development
presented by Michael Scott in Southcentral Alaska's Economy and Popu-
lation, 1965-2025: A Base Study and Projections, 1979.
3. Logging and Sawmill Employment
Employment in logging and sawmills is classified by the MAP model as
exogenous manufacturing employment, while employment in pulpmills is
calculated endogenously. In 1979, the Alaskan timber industry har-
vested approximately 500 million board feet of lumber.
In the base case, timber output is assumed to rise to 960 mi 11 ion
board feet by the year 2000, implying a rise in manufacturing employ-
ment from 2,204 in 1980 to 4,103 in 2000, as shown in Table 64. The
rate of growth in output in this case is approximately equal to the
historical growth in the industry.
4. Commercial Fishing: Non-Bottomfish
Statewide employm~nt in non-bottomfish commercial fishing and fish
processing is assumed to remain constant at current levels of about
6,323 and 7,123, respectively. These figures and their regional
breakdowns, shown in Table 65, are based on projections to 1980 of
estimates presented in George Rogers, Measuring the Socioeconomic
Impacts of Alaska's Fisheries, ISER (April, 1980).
143
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
~
'
H~AGRI
BOl
809
812
Bl7
SOURCE:
--.
TABLE 63. AGRICULTURAL H'IPLOYHENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMAGRI 801 809 812 817
1980 o. 178 0.013 0.044 .· 0.008 0. 113
1981 o. 178 0.013 0.044 0.008 o. 113
1982 o. 166 0.013 0.04 0.008 o. 105
1983 0.204 0.013 0.051 0.008 o. 132
1984 0.228 0.013 0.058 0.008 -o. 149
1985 0.252 0.013 0.064 0.008 0. 167
1986 0.276 0.013 0.071 0.008 ... 0. 184
1987 0.3 0.013 0.078 0.008 .. 0.201
1988 0.357 0.013 0.093 0.008 0.243
1989 0.413 0.013 0.109 0.008 0.283
1990 0.47 0.013 ·6. 125 0.008 0.324
1991 0.527 0.013 0. 141 0.008 0.365 ..
1992 0.583 0.013 0. 156 0.008 0.406.
1993 0.64 0.013 0. 172 0.008 0.447
1994 0.697 0.013 0. 188 ·. 0.008· 0.488
1995 0.753 0.013 0.204 0.008 0.528
1996 0.81 0.013 0. 219 . 0.008 0.57
1997 0.867 0.013 0.235 0.008 ·. 0. 611
1998 0.923 0.013 . 0. 251 . 0.008 0.651
1999 0.98 0.013 . 0.267 0.008 0.692
2000 1.037 0.013 0.283 0.008 0.733
:·. ./_
. '~ .. ::::
= Exogenous employment in agriculture (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Aleutian Islands census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Fairbanks census division (thousands)
= Basic sector employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet census division (thousands)
=Basic sector employment, Matanuska/Su~itna_census division (thousands)
Scott, M., Southcentral Alaska's Economy and Population,
1965-2025: A Base Study and Projections, 1979.
144
1980
198 ~
1982
1983
f984
19'S5
1986
1987
1988
. 1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
:woo
H)I•1X2 =
802 =
BOB =
B09 =
Bll =
812 =
Bl5 =
321 =
TABLE 64. LOGGING AND SAWMILL EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMMX2 802 808 809 811 812
2.204 o. 134 2.273 0.09 0.044 1. 109 o. 147 0. 138 0.092 0.046 1. 144 o. 151 2.345
2.418 o. 143 0.095 0.047 1. 18 0.156
2.494 o. 147 0.098 0.048 1. 217 o. 161
2.572 0. 152 o. 101 0.05 1. 255 o. 166
2.653 0.157 o. 105 0.052 1. 294 0. 171
2.736 0. 162 0. 108 0.053 1. 335 0.176
2.822 0.167 o. 111 0.055. 1. 377 0. 182
2.911 0. 172 o. 115 0.057 1. 4 2 0. 188
3.001 o. 177 o. 118 0.058 1. 464 0.193
3.096 o. 183 o. 122 0.06 . 1. 51 0. 199
3. 1_93 0. 188 o. 126 0.062 1. 557 0.206
3.293 o. 194 o. 13 0.064 1 .607 0.212
3.396
0.201 0. 134 0.066 1.657 0.219 0.207 0.138 0.068 1. 708 0.226 3.503 0.213 o. 143 0.07 1. 762 0.233 3.613 0.22. o. 147 0.072 1. 818 0.24 3.727 0.227 o. 152 0.075 1. 875 0.248 3.843 0.234 .
3.964 0. 156 0.077 1. 934 0.255 o. 241 . o. 161 0.079 1. 994 0.263 4.103 0.25 o. 167 0.082 2.064 0.273
315
0. 188
0. 194
0.2
0.206
0.212
0.219
0.226
0.233
0 .. 24
0. 248
0.256
0.264
0.272
o. 28
0.289
0.298
0.308
0.317
0.327
0.338
0."349
Exogenous employment in average wage manufacturing (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
821
Basic sector employment, Cordova/McCarthy census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Fairbanks census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Southeast Alaska (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Kodiak census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Seward census division (thousands)
SOURCE: ·1979 value was taken from Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical
Quarterly.
145
[
[
[
.[
0.493 [
0.508.
0.524
0.541
0.558 [
0.57_?
0.59" -
0.61:..
0.631
0.651
0.671
0.692
0.714
0. 737
0. 76
0. 784
0.808
0.834
0.86
0.887
0.918
[
[
c
[
[
[
L
[
[
[
[
[
UW.X2 c 7. 123
21 7.123
82 7. 123
0 7. 123.
7. 123
7. 123.
86 7. 123
"""
7. 123
~ ' 7. 123
l..-B 7. 123
30 7. 123'
D
7. 123
~ 7. 123
a 7. 123
94 7. 123
~5 7. 123 c 7. 123
' 7. 123
~ 7. 123
S9 7. 123 c 7. 123
[ 812
19eo 1.253
o~~ 1.253
1. 253
.983 1. 253
1984 1. 253
or 1.253
6 1. 253
7 1.253
1988 1. 253
089
1. 253
90 1.253
91 1. 253
1992 1. 253
1993 1. 253
094
1.253
95 1. 253
gg6 1. 253
1';197 1. 253
cr 1. 253
s 1. 253
-0 1 .253
[
c
[
r·
L
TABLE 65. NONBOTfOMFISHCOMMERCIAL FISHING AND
PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
EMF ISH MTOT 801 802 805
6.333 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2.174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2.174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2.174 0.479 0. 271
6.363 13.485 2.174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2.174 0.479 0. 271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 o. 271
6.363 1.3.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0. 271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.4~9. 0.271
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271
606 BOB
1.63 0.723
1.63 0. 723
1. 63 0.723
1. 63 0.723
1. 63 0.723
1.63 0.723
1.63 0.723
1.63 0. 723
1.63 0.723
1.63 o. 723
1.63 0. 723
1. 63 0. 723
1.53 0. 723
1. 63 o. 723
1. 63 0. 723
1. 63 0.723
1. 63 0.723
1. 63 0. 723
1. 63 0.723
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.479 0.271 1. 63 .: . 0.723
6.363 13.485 2. 174 0.47$ 0.271 1.63 0.723
. .,· .-/ ... '·. ·-..... -
814 815 816 817 818 821 826
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 0. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 --2.907 0.004 0. 0.054'-o-:-o~"; 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. Q.054 o.m 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.05~ 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 • 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059' 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2. 90.7 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 0. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.,907 0.004 p. 0.054 0.059 0.053
0.043 2.907 0.004 o. 0.054 0.059 0.053
146
811
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
3.615
827
0.22
0.22
.o. 2:!
o.n
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.~;.2
0.22
0.22
0.2:1
0.22
0.22
0.22
El·ii'IX2 =
Et·'iFISH =
t·iTOT =
801 =
802 =
805 =
806 =
~. BOS =
'811 =
Bl2 =
Bl4 =
Bl5 =
Bl6 =
Bl8 =
B21 =
826 =
B27 =
SOLiRCE:
Exogenous employment in average wage manufacturing (thousands)
Exogenous employment in fish harvesting (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Aleutian Islands census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Bethel census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Bristol Bay Regton (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Cordova/McCarthy census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Southeast Alaska (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet census divisibn (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Kobuk census division (thousands) ·
Basic sector employment, Kodiak census d.ivision (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Kuskokwim census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Nome census division (thousands)
c
[
c
D
D
Basic sector employment, Seward census division (thousands) · o
Basic sector employment, Valdez/Chitina/Whittier census division (thousands •
Basic sector employment, vJade Hampton ·census division (thousands) .
George Rogers; Measuring the Socioeconomic Impacts of Alaska's
Fisheries, Institute of Social and Economic Research, April
1980.
147
D
c
D
D
c
c
[
[
6
[
r~
L
[
[
[
[
[
[ '
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
c
[
5. Bottomfish Harvesting and Processing
The 1981 American domestic catch of bottomfish in the Bering Sea and
the Gulf of Alaska totaled 107,540 metric tons (North Pacific Fish-
eries Management Co unci 1 , 1981). This is 1 ess than 6 percent of the
optimum yield of 1.9 million metric tons calculated for these areas by
the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council.
Most people agree that the American catch of bottomfish in Alaskan
waters will substantially increase over the next twenty years,
replacing foreign harvests. However, there is considerable uncer-
tainty as to the extent to which employment in Alaska in bottomfish
harvesting and processing may be expected to rise. Past projections
have varied widely, primarily as a result of differences in assump-
tions about total harvests, the location of bottomfish processing
(onshore or offshore), and residency patterns of employees.
A number of factors suggest that the U.S. fishing fleet, and in
particular onshore Alaska processors, are at an economic disadvantage
compared to foreign operations. These are high U.S. labor costs (in
particular in Alaska), high transportation costs from Alaska (due
partly to the Jones Act), lack of a well-developed transportation and
services infrastructure, lack of a highly skilled, stable work force
for an onshore processing industry, lack of U.S. marketing channels
for Alaska groundfish, high American interest rates, subsidization of
b -~ ~ ~ ____ ~'~ ~ ~-. !~~~~g~ ~~~~~sh~~i-~~~-~~ g~~~~~~i ~---~t~~~ard=-~~~~---!~~=~~~~~~~2'~k:~t_::_~ ~-nd
[
[
import barriers for foreign markets. These factors are discussed in
148
'
Scott (1980) and Natural Resources Consultants (1980). Working in
favor of the future development of the U.S. bottomfish industry are
the commitment of the State of Alaska to this goal and the carrot and
stick provided by U.S. allocations of Alaska groundfish resources to
foreign operators.
The bottomfish harvesting and processing employment assumptions used
in the MAP model runs were based on a number of assumptions, of which
the most important are:
• Domestic harvests grow at a constant rate from their 1981 levels
to optimum yield levels in 2000.
• In 2000, 60 percent of the catch is accounted for by catcher
processors, 20 percent by joint ventures with foreign processors,
and 20 percent by onshore Alaska processors. The allocation of
the domestic catch changes in a linear fashion over time from the
1981 levels of approximately 89 percent for joint ventures and
11 percent for onshore processing.
• 30 percent of catcher processor employees, 80 percent of trawler
employees, and 100 percent of onshore processing plant employees
are Alaska residents.
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
_____________ T_h_e_s_e __ a_n_d~o_t_h_e_r __ a_s_s_u_m_pt __ io_n_s __ u_s_e_d __ ,_·n __ p_r_o_j_e_c_t_i_n_g __ b_o_t_t_om __ f_is_h __ e_m_p_l_o_y_m_e_n_t ___________ ~ __
are reviewed in Appendix B. The bottomfish employment projections are
presented in Table 66.
149
[
L~
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
r~
L
~
1980
i981
1982
19S3
' 1984 1985
1986
1987
1988
1!:'89
1990
1991
~992
1993
1994
1995
1996
.1.997
1998
1999
2000
Et·Kl~X2
Et'J~~X2
Ei,1FI SH
BOJ
802
315
MTOT
TABLE 66 BOTTOMFlSH FISHING AND PROCESSING
E11PLOn1ENT ASSUMPTIONS
__ .-_ ....... ..,_·
EMCNX2 EMMX2 EMF ISH 801 802 B15 MTOT
=
::
=
=
=
=
=
o. 0. o. 0. o. 0.
0. 0.088 0. 196 0. 162 0. 0.122
0.002 0. 107 0.225 0. 193 0.003 0. 139
0.003• o. 13 0.259 0.229 0.005 o. 158
0.003 o. 157 0.297 0.271 0.007·. o. 18
0.004 0. 19 0.342 0.321 0.01 0. 205
0.005 0.229 0.392 0.379 0.014 0.232
0.006 0.276 0.45 0.449 0.02 0.263
0.007 0.332 0.517 0.531 0.026 0.298
0.008 .. o. 399 . 0.593. 0.628 0.034 0.338
0.01 0.48 . 0.68 0.743 0.044 0.382
0.012 0.576 0.78 0.878 0.056 0.433
0.014 0.69 0.895 1.038 0.072 0.489
0.016 0.827 1.026 1. 226 0.09 0.552
0.019· 0.989 1. 176 1.449 0. 113 .. 0.622
0.023 1. 183 1. 347 1. 7.11 ':o. 141 0.701
0.028 1. 414 1. 543 2.02 .. 0. 176 0.789
0.033 1. 689. 1.768 2.385 ·0. 217 0.887
0.039 2.016 2.024 2.815 0.268 0.996
0.046 2.404 2.317 3.322 0.329 1,. 116 o. 2.866. 2.652 3.9 0.372 1. 245
·. .. . . .. ,:.~ ·-·.
. '·, ...
:·::_"·" -.. , ..
Exogenous employment in average wage construction (thousands)
Exogenous employment in average wage manufacturing (thousands)
0.
0.284
0.335
0.392
0.458
0.535
0.626
0. 732
0.856
1.
1. 169
1. 367
1. 598
1. 869
2. 184
2.553
2.985
3.489
4.079
4.768
5.518
Exogenous employment in fish harvesting (thousands) .
Basic sector employment, Aleutian Islands census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment 2 Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Kodiak census division (thousands)
Total exogenous employment (thousands)
SOURCE: See text.
150
'
6. Federal Civilian Employment
Historically, federal civilian employment has grown at an ~verage
annual rate of about 0. 5 percent. By 1979, such employment had
reached a lev~l of 17,915 persons.
In the base case, it is assumed that the historical growth pattern
continues in the future, raising federal civilian employment to 19,893
by the year 2000, as shown in Table 67.
7. Federal Military Employment
In 1979, active duty mi 1 ita ry perso nne 1 in A 1 as ka numbered 23, 323
persons. In the base case, it is assumed that this level is main-
tained throughout the forecast period, as shown in Table 68.
TOURISM ASSUMPTIONS
Recent changes in the specification of the MAP model have been made to
net out those portions of transportation, trade, and service sector
employment generated by tourist activity in the state. Such estimates
are now generated in forecasts as a function of an exogenously fore-
cast estimate of total tourists visiting Alaska during the forecast
period. In 1979, the Alaska Division of Tourism estimated that
505,400 persons visited the state.
In the base case, it is assumed that the number of visitors continues
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
to grow at a constant annual rate of 4 percent, reaching over 1.1 I
-------------------=----------~--.--c------. ------------------------. ------------------~---------------b---
million persons annually by the year 2000.
[
151 r
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
2
t
6
7
~~
i1
'[J• I '
I
!5
:c~~
l
!9
~0
[
[
[
'
GOB
1S80
.1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
~992
1993
1994
1995
1996
~997
1998
1999
2000
0.036
0.036
0.036
0.037
0. 037
0.037.
0.037
0.037
0.037
0.038
0.038
0.038
0.038
0.038
0.039
0.039
0.039
0.039
0.039
0.04
0.04
1980
1981
1982
1S83
1984
1985
19E6
1987 ~6---~-~-~~:~~
L
r_,
L
. 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
TABLE 67 . FEDERAL CIVILIAN ..-H1PLOnmH ASSU~iPTI ONS
E!-IGC G01 G02 G04 G05 GOG
18.005 o. 706 9.794 0.248 0.412 0. 193
18.095 o. 709 . 9. 843 0.25 0.414 0. 194
18. 185 0.713 9.893 0.251 0.416 0. 195
18.276 0.716 9.942 0.252 0.419 o. 196
18.367 0."72 9.992 '0.253 0.421 0. 197
18.459 0.724 10.042 0.255 0.423 o. 198
18.551 0.727 10.092 0.256 0.425 0.199
18.644 0.731 10. 142 0.257 0.427 0. 199
18.737 o. 735 10. 193 0.259 0.429 0.2
18.831 0.738 10.244 0.26 0.431 0.201
18.925 0. 742 10.295 0.261 0.433 0.203
19.02 o. 746 10.347 0.262 0.436 0.204
19.115 0.749 10.399 0.264 0.438 0.205
19.211 o. 753 10.451 0.265 0.44 0.206
19.307 0. 757 10.503 0.266 0.442 0.207
19.403 0.761 10.555 0.268 0.444 0.208
19.5 0. 764 10.608 0.269 0._447 0.209
19.598 o. 768 10.661 0.27 .. 0.449 0.21
19.696 0. 772 10.714 0.272 0.451 0. 211
19.794 0.776 10.768 0.273 0.453 0.212
19.893 o. 78 10.822 0.275 0.456 0.213
G09 G11 G12 G14 G15 G16 G17 G18 G21
2.328 2.416 0. 104 0.248 0.286 0.077 0.097 0.178 0.068 2.34 2.428 0.105 0.25 0.288 0.078 0.098 0.179 0.069 2.351 2.44 o. 105 0.251 0.289 0.078 0.098 0. 18 0.069 2.363 2.453 0.106 o. 252 0.291 0.079 0.099 0.181 0.069 2.375 2.465 0.107 0.253 0.292 0.079 0.099 0.182 0.07 2.387 2.477 0.107 0.255 0.294 0.079 0. 1 0. 183 0.07_.~ 2.399 2.49 0.108 0.256 0.295 0.08 o. 1 0.184 O.Oi 2.411 2.502 0.108 0.257 0.296 0.08 0. 101 0.185 0.071 2.423 2.515 o. 109 0.259 0.298 0.081 0. 101 o. 186 0.071 2.435 2.527 0.109 0.26 0.299 0.081 0.102 0. 186 0.072 2.447 2.54 0. 11 0.261 0.301 0.081 0.102 0. 187 0.072 2.459 2.552 0. 11 0.262 0.302 0.082 0. 103 0. 188 0.072 2.472 2.565 o. 111 0.264 0.304 0.082 0.103 0.189 0.07::0 2.484 2.578 0. 111 0.265 0.305 0.083 0.104 0.19 0.07. 2. 496 2.591 0. 112 0.266 0.307 0.083 0. 104 0. 191 0.07:; 2.509 2.604 0. 113 0.268 0.309 0.083 0. 105 0.192 0.07~ 2.521 2.617 0. 113 0.269 0.31 0.084 0. 105 0.193 0.074 2.534 2.63 0. 114 ().27 0.312 0.084 0.106 0.194 0.074 2.547 2.643 0. 114 0.272 0.313 0.085 0.106 0.195 0.075 2.559 2.656 0. 115 0.273 0.315 0.085 0.107 0. 196 0.075 2.572 2.67 0. 115 0.275 0.316 0.086 0. 107 0.197 0.076
G24 G25 G26 G27 G29
0.337 0.034 0.045 0.135 0.259
0.338 0.034 0.045 o. 136 0.261
0.34 0.035 0.045 o. 136 0.262
0.342 0.035 0.046 0. 137 0.263
0.343 0.035 0.046 0. 138 0.264
0.345 0.035 0.046 o. 138 0.266
0.347 0.035 0.046 o. 139 0.267
0.349 0.035 0.047 0. 14 0.268
0.35 0.036 0.047 0. 141 0.27
0-;-35-2---0-;-036---0-;-04-7---0-;-1-4-1---0-;-2"7-1
0.354 0.036 0.047 0. 142 0.273
0.356 0.036 0.048 0.143 0.274
0.357 0.036 0.048 0.143 0.275
0.359 0.037 0.048 0. 144 0.277
0.361 0.037 0.048 0. 145 0.278
0.363 0.037 0.049 0.146 0.279
0.365 0.037 0.049 0. 146 0.281
0.366 0.037 0.049 0. 147 0.282
0.368 0.037 0.049 o. 148 0.284
0.37 0.038 0.049 0. 148 0.285
HiGC =
GOl =
G02 =
G04 =
GOS =
~06 =
G08 =
G09 =
Gll =
Gl2 -
Gl4 =
Gl5 =
Gl6 =
Gl7 =
Gl8 =
G21 =
G24 =
G25 =
G26 =
G27 =
G29 =
Federal government civilian employment
Government Employment, Aleutian Islands census division (thousands)
Government Employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Government Employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
Government Employment, Bethel census division (thousands)
Government Employment, Bristol Bay Region (thousands)
Government Employment, Cordova/IIJcCarthy census di vision (thousands)
Government Employment, Fairbanks census divisio~ (thousands)
Government Employment, Southeast Alaska-1thousands)
Government Employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet cens~s division (thousands)
Government Employment, Kobuk census division (thousands)
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[ Government Employment, Kodiak census division. (thousands)
Government Employment, Kuskokwim cens~~ di~ision (thousands)
Government Employment, t~atanuska/Susifna census division (thousands)
Government Employment, Nome census division (thousands) 0
Government Employment, Seward census division (thousands) I
Government Employment, S.E. Fairbanks census division (thousands)
Government Employment, Upper Yukon census division (thousands)
Government Employment, Valdez/Chitina/Whittier census division (thousands) 0
Government Employment, Wade Hampton census division (thousands)
Government Empl~ment, Yukon Koyukuk census division (thousands) 0
SOURCE: Alaska Department'of Labor, Statistical Quarterly, various
issues, for 1979 value. Projections from 1979 as described
in text.
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----~--~-------------~
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l
TABLE 68. FEDERAL !vii LIT ARY H1PLOYl•'tENT ASSU~1PTI ONS --.
EMGM G01 G02 G04 G05 GOG
1980 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1981 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1982 23.323 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1983 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1984 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
' 1985 23.323 2. 176 11 . 864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1986 23.323 2.176 11 . 864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1987 23.323 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1988 23.323 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
[ 1989 23.323 2. 176 11 . 864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1990 23.323 2. 176 11 . 864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1991 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1992 23.323 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
h ' 1993 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
L 1994 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1995 23.323 2.176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1996 23.323 2. 176 11 . 864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1997 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.0.16 0.014 0.369
L 1998 23.323 2.176 11 .864 0.016 0.014 0.369
1999 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369.
2000 23.323 2. 176 11.864 0.016 0.014 0.369
[ G08 G09 G 11 G12 G14 G15 G16 G17 G18 G21
[
0.0!:4 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042. 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.0!:4 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016. 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 -_Q. __ Q51 o. 147 0.042 0.014
[ 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 0. 147 0.042 0.014.
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.01
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 0. 147 6.042 0.01-.
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
[ 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891. 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014 [ 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.015 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
[ 0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 o. 147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0.891 0.054 0.147 0.042 0.014
0.054 5.579 0.686 0.056 0.016 0."891 0.054 0. 147 0.042 0.014
[ G24 G25 G26 G27 G29
1980 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
[ 1981 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1982 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1983 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1984 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
[ 1985 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1986 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1987 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1988 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 c 1989 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1\3.90 (),849 0.()~8--().042 Q,Q14 __ 0.413 __
1991 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1992 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1993 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
[ 1994 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1995 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1996 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
1997 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
r~ 1998 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413
L ~939 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413·
2000 0.849 0.028 0.042 0.014 0.413 .. i
'
HiGt•1
GOl
G02
G04
G05
G06
G08
G09
Gll
Gl2
Gl4
Gl5
Gi6
Gl7
Gl8
G21
G24
G25
G26
G27
G29
,-.
=Federal government military employment
=Government Employment, Aleutian Islands census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Barrow/North Slope census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Bethel census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Bristol Bay Region (thousands)
=Government Employment, Cordova/McCarthy census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Fairbanks census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Southeast Alaska (thousands)
=Government Employment, Kenai/Cook Inlet census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Kobuk census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Kodiak census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Kuskokwim census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Matanuska/Susitna c~nsus division (thousands)
=Government Em~loyment, Nome census di~ision• (thousands)
[
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[
=Government Employment, Seward c~nsus division {thousands)
=Government Employment, S.E. Fairbanks census division (thousands) 0·.
=Government Employment, Upper Yukon census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Valdez/Chitina/Whittier census division (thousands)
=Government Employment, Wade Hampton census division (thousands) 0
=Government Employment, Yukon Koyukuk census division (thousands) !
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor.
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POLICY ASSUMPTIONS
Virtually all past work done using the MAP forecasting model as well
as work by other forecasters confirms the central role that state
government fi sea 1 po 1 icy wi 11 p 1 ay in shaping the pattern of future
-
economic development in Alaska. State expenditures not only determine
direct government employment, but also affect all endogenous sectors
\ of the economy through expenditures on goods and services and capital
improvements. State revenues drawn out of personal income affect
local demands directly, and those drawn from resources serve to relax
expenditure constraints on state government.
While anticipating the course of future revenues and expenditures is
necessarily extremely speculative, some of the general outlines of the
pattern of state fiscal behavior are already in place, and serve as a
guide to several of the major assumptions utilized in the base case.
First, on the revenue side, a variety of taxes have been revised in
the recent past. For these projections, we assume that the state
personal income tax is permanently eliminated. The petroleum corpo-
rate income tax assumptions reflect the changes made during the 1981
legislative session. Exogenous state revenues are composed of four
items--the property tax on petroleum facilities, royalty payments,
state severance taxes, and petroleum corporate income taxes.
~-----------~~~hown in Table 69, property tax revenues from the Prudhoe facility,
• · the TAPS pipeline, the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System, and
[
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\
1980
1981
1 5'82
17'~33
1984
1985
1 5'86
1987 , 1988
1989
19'7'0
1991
1992
TABLE 69 . STATE REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS
(Millions of Current Dollars)
~:F'T S F-: F' F' S RF'RY
469.9 350. 881.3
1156. 321 .333 1389" t
"1678; 358.801 1.~66.
2102. 369 •. 348 2087.
2480. 379.617 2463. -
2896. 387 •· 264 2894.
3497. 397.263 3473.
3978. 543.154 "'39.~·2. ..
3675. 564 .. 186 4404.
41A9. 58t .•. ~.53 4928.
4002. 601.828 4830;
~-.t:"''") ~ /.~',.:.... 614.356 4641 •
3656. 6;~2.681 4631.
FnCSF'X
135.12
860.
820.
495.
593"+16
694.8
836.4
-~'52+8
969.48
1089.24
1059.84
1007.16
994.44
1993 3775. "628 •. 037 4 81 A-; ········ .. ~ ·,_----··-· ·------· .. 1030.68 1994 3661 .. 634 .014 4718. t 1005.48
1995 3417. 634.542 4481. 947.76 .. 19'i'6 3256. 630.545 . ·! 4380. -916-~32.'". ..• . .
1997 3420. 6.21 t568 4659. 969.48 :
19~'8 3420 •. 607.445 .. 4659 • 969.48 . .
1999" 3420. 589.322 4659 ·• .;. .. 969"~"48-_:
2(J(l0 34 2(i .-· 566.396 4659. 96.9 t 48
RPTS =Oil and gas production taxes (millions of current dollars)
RPRY = Oil and gas royalties (millions of current dollars)
RPPS = Oil and gas property taxes (millions of current dollars)
RTCSPX = Special oil and gas corporate taxes (millions of current dollars)
SOURCES: Alaska Department of Revenue, Petroleum Production Revenue
Forecast, third quarter 1981. RPPS also includes property
tax estimates for the Northwest Alaska Gas Pipeline, the
Trans-Alaska Pipeline, and Federal-State OCS development in
the Beaufort Sea, as discussed in Alaska OCS Office, Bering
Norton Petroleum Development Scenarios: Economic and Demo-
graphic Analys1s:-rechn1cal Paper No. 50, Social and Economic--
Studies Program, p. 101.
157
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OCS deve 1 opment reach over 500 mi 11 ion do 11 ars by the end of the
forecast period. Oil and gas royalty, production tax, and special
corporate tax revenues peak at about $10 bi 11 ion annually by 1989,
based on recent petroleum production revenue forecasts by the Alaska
Department of Revenue.
On the expenditure side, it is assumed that real per capita expendi-
tures will grow over the forecast period in proportion to the growth
in real per capita income.
While this assumed behavior is somewhat more conservative than has
been observed in the last several years, it is impossible to use the
expenditure path of the recent past as a long term trend, inasmuch as
it is simply not sustainable in the long run. The implicitly assumed
unitary income elasticity of expenditures does represent a sustainable
policy over the forecast period.
158
'
The Base Case Assumptions: The SCIMP Model
Utilization of the SCIMP model requires initial period population
figures, projected exogenous emp 1 oyment, and a variety of contra 1
parameters including employment multipliers, demographic parameters,
and labor force participation rates. These assumptions are discussed
in this section.
The assumption was made throughout that th~re is no interaction
between the military populations stationed on Adak and Shemya and the
rest of the economy of the Aleutian Islands. These populations were
assumed to remain constant over the entire period. They were sub-
tracted from total population of the region before running the SCIMP
model, and added back into the final population figures. In addition,
OCS offshore employment was assumed to have no interaction with the
rest of the local economy.
POPULATION
Starting population data for 1980 were taken from 1980 census print-
outs. Calculation of the input data by age, race, and sex for
civilian population is presented in Table 70. This population was
adjusted upward slightly to allow for consistency with the 1970
definition of the Aleutian Islands census division, which is the basis
for other input data reported for the region by the State of Alaska.
The adjusted 1980 civilian population was 4,328. Adding in the
military popula~ion of 3,915 results in a total 1980 population of
-----------------------------------
8,243.
159
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....
TABLE 70: CALCULATION OF POPULATION DATA FOR SCIMP RUN,
ALEUTIAN ISLAND CENSUS DIVISION
Civilian Population Adjusted Civilian Populationb
i Total Popula-
t ion (Inc 1 ud-Military Civilian
Age i i ng Mil itar·y) Population Population Native a Non-Native Native Non-Native Native
Cohort Male Female Adak & Shemya) Male Female Shares Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
0-14 857 773 444 377 413 396 . 605 163 156 250 240 183 175 281 270
15-19 576 278 361 111 215 167 .605 85 66 130 101 95 74 146 113
20-24 1,017 523 643 269 374 254 .438 210 143 164 111 236 1.61 184 125
25-29 759 438 424 225 335 213 .438 188 120 147 93 211 135 165 104
30-44 1,204 587 620 297 584 290 .438 328 163 256 127 368 183 288 143
45-64 410 239 44 47 316 192 .438 178 108 138 84 200 121 155 94
64 + 55 52 2 1 53 51 .885 6 6 47 45 I 7 7 53 51
TOTAL 4,878 2,890 2,588 1,327 2,290 1,563 1,158 762 1,132 801 1,300 856 1,272 900
aCalculated from 1980 census data on native population by age group. These data were not sex-specific.
bTh~ 1980 census definition of the Aleutian Islands excluded four communities: Chigni·k, Chignik Lagoon, Chignik Lake, and Perryville,
the population of which totals 475. Civilian population figures were adjusted upwards proportionately by a factor of .12328 to make popu-
lation figures consistent with statistics issued by the State of Alaska.
SOURCE: : 1980 census printouts.
EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT
The SCIMP model requires projections of exogenous employment for the
entire period. Projections were supplied for federal government
employment and for employment in fish harvesting, fish processing, and
other basic sector activities. The fish harvesting employment was
further subdivided between residents of the Aleutian Islands and
nonresidents. Fish processing and other basic sector activities were
similarly divided between local residents and enclave employees whose
permanent residence is outside the Aleutian Islands.
In developing the fish harvesting and processing employment assump-
tions, that part of employment involved with species other than
bottomfish was assumed to remain constant, with resident harvesting
employment at 251, nonresident harvesting employment at 505, resident
processing employment at 162, and nonresident processing employment at
1,459. In contrast, bottomfish harvesting employment was assumed to
grow rapidly. The calculation of bottomfish employment is discussed
in Appendix B.
Other basic sector activities include a small amount of resident
employment in agriculture and primarily enclave employment associated
with OCS exploration activities frbm the St. George sale (no develop-
ment and operations employment is assumed to result from this sale),
and construction of bottomfish processing facilities.
[
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~-~-~------~~ ---'------~~-----------------------------------------------------------6----
[
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Federal government civilian employment was assumed to rise at a rate
of 0.5 percent annually from a 1980 level of 706.
The exogenous employment assumptions are summarized in Table 71.
EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIERS
The SCIMP model calculates support sector employment by multiplying
exogenous employment by employment multipliers. A multiplier of .2332
was assumed for all resident employment, based on calculations done
for an earlier study (Tuck and Huskey, St. George Basin Petroleum
Development Scenarios, Economic and Demographic Analysis, 1981, page
101). A much lower multiplier of .0466 was assumed for exogenous
enclave employment, based on the same source. Finally, a figure of
.0233 (half the enclave multiplier) was assumed for nonresident fish
harvesting employment, on the assumption that these workers would have
an even smaller interaction with the local economy. These multiplier
assumptions are shown in Table 71.
State and local government employment was calculated by multiplying
resident civilian population in the previous year by a factor of
. 0948. This reflects an assumption that this ratio remains constant
over time. The figure was based on the ratio of the 1979 average
state and local government employment (reported in the Alaska Depart-
ment of Labor•s Statistical Quarterly) to the 1978 civilian population
(calculated by .reducing the 1978 population figure reported in the
162
TABLE 71. SCIMP MODEL EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
Projection
Year _(1=1~_!) EMFPR EMFPNR EMFHR EMFHNR EMX
-· -1·1· ---· 1 7 5 •-I·-·1497. r· ... 291 c ... I 662. I 15. . I .
2I 180. I ~.505. I 302. I 686. I 15. I ' 31 187. I 1514. l 315. I 714. l :24. I
-·4 I -.. 195i I 1525. I ·---3 31. ; · I ·· 747. I 30i I·-
5I 207. I 1537. I 350. I 786. I 32. I
61 222. I 1551.. I 373. I 831. I 30. I
... 7 r. 242 •. I ... 1567+ ·r·--Aoo•· I 884 •. I 24. "I
Rl 267. I 1585. I 43:2. I 946. I l 5. I
9 .I 298. I :Ul06, I 47:1.. J. :1.0:1.8. I :1.5 .; I
10I "339. I 1628• I ----· 517.-I 1102. I 15. I
·11I 390. I :1.653. I 571.. I :1.202. I 1.5 .. I
12I 454. I 1C>81. I 635. I 1318. I :1.5. I
·13 I .. --534. ·r 1710. I .. --710. I 1455. I 15. I ..
141 635. I :1.74:1. ~ I 799. I 1.61.7. I :1.5. I
:1.5I 762. J 1774. I 903. I 1806. I 1.5. I
16I 9l?. I :1.808. I ··--t 025; I 2030. I 1 1:" .. .J > I
17I lll 4. I 18.1\2. I 1168. I 2294. I l.5. I
:I.RI 1356. I 187-4. I :1.335., I 2605, I . :1.5. I
19I 1656 •· I l902. I .. 1529. I 2973. l 1 1:" I .. d t
20I 202{>. I l.925. I 1.755. I 3407. X 1 5 • I
MtJltiplier .2332 .0466 .2332 .0233 .2332
EMFPR = Resident fish processing employment.
EMFPRNR = Nonresident (enclave) fish processing employment.
EMFHR = Resident fish harvesting employment.
EMFHNR = Nonresident fish harvesting employment.
EMX = Other basic sector resident employment.
EMXNR = Other basic sector nonresident (enclave) employment.
FGVT =Federal government civilian employment.
163
EMXNR
16. I
18. I
103. I
150• I
174. I
15:2.. I
. "103 i I
25. I
28. I
30. 1
34. I
37. I
42. I
46. I
54. r.
6 ~-> I
70. I
78. I
9;?.. I
l 7. I
.0466
FGVT
710.
.713.
717.
720.
724.
727.
73:1..
735.
738.
742.
746.
750.
753.
757.
761.
765,
768.
772,
77{>.
780.
.2332
n
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Alaska Department of Labor's Alaska Population Overview [December 1979]
by military and dependent population).
OTHER PARAMETERS
Birth rate and survival rate parameters were based on 1970 census data
and more recent data obtained from the U.S. Department of Health,
Education and Welfare. No noneconomic induced migration was assumed.
Labor force participation rates for white males were assumed to be the
same as those published in the Survey of Income and Education (1976,
Spring). The published labor force participation rates for white
females, native males and native females were adjusted upwards by a
factor of 1. 144. This was done so that the 1980 1 abor force (pre-
dicted by multiplying the labor force participation rates by the 1980
population figures) would equal the total labor force calculated by
adding 1980 unemployment figures to the total employment figure
projected by the model for 1980.
This completes the description of the base case assumptions. We now
turn to the base case projections.
164
\
The Base Case Projections
The historical baseline analysis and the base case assumptions have
laid the groundwork for the base projections. Before reviewing these
projections, it again needs to be emphasized that the projections are
not forecasts of what actually will occur. These base projections are
projections of economic and demographic variables, given the assump-
tion that the specific projects, growth rates, etc., occur. As
discussed above, however, there is a reasonable probability that the
assumptions utilized will generate a growth path that actually will be
obtained or exceeded. With these comments in mind, we can now turn to
the projections.
THE MAP STATEWIDE BASE CASE PROJECTIONS
Population
Projections of population, civilian non-Native natural increase, and
net migration are shown in Table 72. Population growth over the
period 1980-2000 averages 2.4 percent. However, growth is more rapid
during the 1980s (3.1 percent) than during the 1990s (1. 7 percent).
The most rapid population growth 14.7 percent) occurs during the
period 1982-1986. This growth is primarily a reflection of the gas
pipeline construction and the waterflood project at Prudhoe Bay.
During the 1990s fisheries expansion is the main driving force, and
the growth of population is more even.
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TABLE 72 . ~ROJECTED POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF CHANGE:
~980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
199 1
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
ALASKA, 1980 to 2000
(Thousands of Persons)
POP NATINC POP MIG
402.057 5:o3 -7~4
415".·577 4.62 7.39
433.439 4.804 11.537
448.932 5. 133 8.812
464.682 5.343 8.824
489.654 5. 558 . 17.802
521.101 6. 14 23.684
537.185 6.935 7.51
540.376 7.041 ::.5.54
543.41"1 6.645 -5.344
545.698 6.298 -5.766
552.977 5.951 -0.451
560.559 5.843 -0.054
569.582 5.756 1.453
579.119 5. 742 1. 959
589.578 5.756 2.845
600.638 5.812 3.366
611.903 5.893 3.466
623.553 5.979 3.739
635.533 6.076 3.945
648.598 6. 179 4.9
POP = Population (thousands)
NATINC = Civilian non-Native natural increase in population (thousands)
POPMIG = Net increase in population due to migration (thousands)
SbURCE: MAP Model Base Case Projections.
166
Civilian non-Native natural population increases are fairly steady
over the entire period. In contrast net migration shows strong swings
in response to fluctuation in 1 abor demand associ a ted with 1 arge
construction projects.
The net result is a population of 649 thousand in 2000, an increase of
61 percent over the 1980 population of 402 thousand. Of this increase
111 thousand is accounted for by civilian non-Native natural increase,
while the balance is attributed to native increase and net migration.
Age Structure
Projections of age structure of the Alaska population are shown in
Table 73. The share of adults stays almost the same throughout the
period, while the shares of children arid aged decline and rise by
about two percent, respectively.
Employment
Projections of total employment (EM99), wage and salary employment
(EM991), and employment in the basic sector (EMNS), the support sector
(EMSP), and government (EMG9) are presented in Table 74. Total
emp 1 oyment grows from 204.4 thousand in 1980 to 341.8 thousand in
2000, a growth rate of 2.6 percent. Growth of basic sector employment
(at 2.7 percent) occurs in response to construction, expanding petro-
leum-related activity, and growth of bottomfishing. Expansion is
somewhat more rapid in the first decade (3. 4 percent) than in the
1990s (2.0 percent).
167
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TABLE 73 . PROJECTED AGE STRUCTURE OF ALASKA POPULATION,
1980 -2000
POP.KID
POP.AD
POP.GER
(Proportion of Total Population)
POP.KID POP.AD POP.GER
1980 0.291 0.669 0.04
1981 0.29 0.668 0.042
1982 0.29 0.668 0.042
1983 ·p. 289 0.668 0.043
1984 0.289 0.667 0.044
1985 0.288 0.669 0.044.
1986 0.287 0.67 0.043
1987 0.287 0.669 0.,043
1988 0.288 . 0.667 0.045
1989 0.289 0.665 0.047
1990 0.289 0.663 0.048
1991 0.288 0.662 0.05
1992 0.287 0.662; 0.051
1993 0.286 o. 662:_ 0.052
1994 0.284 0.662 0.053
1995 0.283 0.663 0.054
1996 0.281 0.663 0.055
1997 0.28 0.664 0.056
1998 0.278 0.664 0.058
1999 0.277 0.664 0.059
2000 0.276 0.664 0.06
= Share of children (under age 15) in total population
= Share of adults (between ages 15 and 65) in total population
= Share of aged (over age 65) in total population
SOURCE: MAP Model Base Case Projections.
168
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H~99 =
[!'t,g 91 =
Efl1NS =
H1SP =
EMG9 =
TABLE 74. PROJECTED H'IPLOYMENT: ALASKA, 1980 -2000
(Thousands of Persons)
EM99 EM991 EMNS EMSP EMG9
1980 204.352 190. 1 45.983 79.777 78.591
1981 213.712 198.785 48.817 81.878 83.017
1982 227.441 211.75 52.979 86.692 87.77
1983 238.289 221.976 55.743 91.751 90.795
1984 248.404 231.498 57.923 97.515 92.966
1985 266.687 248.714 65.548 106.685 94.454
1986 29 1. 365 271.928 74.407 118.14 98.818
1987 302.46 282.322 72.645 123.112 106.703
1988 300.616 280.525 66.574 124.316 109.726
1989 297.076 277. 123 64.861 123.852 108.363
1990 293.142. 273.339 64.395 12 1. 57 107. 177
1991 294.713 274.728 66.318 122.244 106. 151
1992 296.775 276.564 66.554 123.465 106.755
1993 300.396 279.854 67.478 125.829 107.09
1994 304.619 283.692 68.439 128.303 107.878
1995 309.842 288.45 69.92 131.144 108.778
1996 315.638 293.723 71.469 134.243 109.927
1997 321.564 299.092 72.949 137.477 111. 138
. 1998 327.805 304.725 74.59 140.872 112.343
1999 334.3 310.561 76.289 .. 144.373 113.638
2000 34 1. 827 317.327 78.612 148.251 114.964
Total employment (thousands)
Total wage and salary empioyment (thousands)
Employment in basic sector: agriculture, mining, construction
and manufacturing (thousands)
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Employment in services (thousands)
Government employment (thousands) --------r" --------------b
SOURCE: MAP Model Base Case.Projections. [
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However, growth is most rapid (8.4 percent) over the period 1980 to
1986, reflecting primarily gas pipeline construction. Between 1986
and 1990, · fo 11 owing the peak of the pipe 1 i ne construction, basic
sector employment falls. Government growth (1.9 percent) is largely
accounted for by growth of state and local government.
Support sector growth reflects the growth of the basic sector. For
the entire period, growth averages 3.1 percent. Growth is somewhat
more rapid (at 4. 3 percent) during the 1980s than during the 1990s
(2.0 percent).
Support sector employment as a percent of total employment grows from
39.0 percent in 1980 to 43.4 percent in 2000. The share of basic
sector emp 1 oyment a 1 so rises s 1 i ght ly, from 22. 5 to 23. 0 percent,
while the share of government employment falls from 38.5 to 33.6
percent.
In summary, there is considerable growth in employment over the 20-
year period. However, the first 10 years tend to be more volatile and
reflect the concentration of several major projects in the 1982-1986
period. The 1990s growth in employment is somewhat more evenly paced,
responding largely to growth in fisheries.
Personal Income, Wages and Prices
c ~~ ~--~·~~-~=~~~~a_l____! ~come -~r~_.j~=~~~~~-=-~~~:as _1-l~~e-~~-~-2 98~-~2"1_<i_r:=_~:._~~~~1:11__t~~(i_~ an~--~---~----C-
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per capita, are shown in Table 75. Total personal income grows from
170
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TABLE 75. PROJECTED.PERSONAL INCOME AND PERSONAL INCOME
PER CAPITA: ALASKA, 1980 -2000
(Millions of 1981 Dollars, respectively)
PI. 81
PIPC.Sl
r:::.81 PIPC.81
1980 5750.38 14302.4
1981 6060.18 14582.6
1982 6531.98 15070.1
1983 6939.5 15457.8
1984 7456.85 16047.2
1985 8594.86 17552.9
1986 9978.68 19149.2.·
1987 9968.82 18557.5
1988 9344.13 17291.9
1989 9130.03 16801.3
1990 8983.99 16463.3
1991 9141.17 16530.8
1992 9260.97 1652L
1993 9455.89 16601.4
1994 9662.39 16684.7
1995 9905.07 16800.3
1996 10164.2 16922.4
1997 10428.7 17043.
1998 10711 . 9 17178.8
1999 11003.9 17314.4
2000 11341.2 17485:7
= Real personal income (millions of 1981 dollars)
= Real per capita personal income (1981 dollars)
SOURCE: MAP Model Base Case Projections.
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5,750 million dollars in 1980 to 11,.341 million dollars in 2000, an
average annual rate of growth of 3. 5 percent. As was the case with
other variables considered, the rate of growth is highest for the
first six years (9.6 percent), turns negative between 1986 and 1990
(-2.6 percent), and rises at 7.2 percent between 1990 and 2000. This
reflects both changes in the rate of growth of employment as well as
changes in the composition of economic activity.
This is more clearly seen in the data on per capita income. Between
1980 and 1986, per capita income grows at an annual rate of 5.0 per-
cent, between 1986 and 1990 it declines by 3.7 percent per year, and
for the 1990-2000 period rises by only 0.6 percent per year. The
decline for the period 1986 to 1990 and the subsequent slow rate of
growth are attributable to two factors. First, an increasing share of
tot a 1 emp 1 oyment is accounted for by support sector activity, with
relatively lower real wages than the economy as a whole. Second, much
of the growth of basic sector employment during the 1990s is in fish-
eries, also an industry with relatively low wage rates.
Projection of total wages and salaries by sector are shown in Table
76. The wage bills in the basic and support sectors mirror the pattern
of growth seen in personal income. Wages in the two sectors peak in
1986 and 1987, respectively, decline steadily until 1990, and then
begin growing again. Support sector wages do not regain peak 1987
1 eve 1 s unt i 1 19~5, and basic sector wages do not reach 1986 1 eve 1 s
again during the period.
172
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\.JS99. 81 =
WSNS.81 =
WSSP.81 =
HSG9.8l =
TABLE 76. PROJECTED WAGES AND SALARIES BY SECTOR:
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Total
Total
Total
Total
ALASKA, 1980 -2000
(t-1fllions of 1981 Dollars)
WS99.81 WSNS.81 WSSP.81 WSG9.81
4494.67 1150.75 1662.47 1699.02
4705.05 1230.27 11598.34 1810.42
5138.68 1393.41 1770.94 1977. 18
54.78. 66 1506. 18 1882.99 2092.19
5923. 1670.9 2059.9 2194.77
6904.72 2223.38 2391.78 2292.01
8090.04 2847.89 2776.15 2468.32
8045.7 2549.8 2784.6 2713.51
7476.12 1975.08 2689.63 2813.51
7289.87 1838.73 2638.72 2814.44
7169.77 1795.2 2555.89 2820.61
7303.63 1895.67 2577.65 2832.16
7404.19 1905.61 2608.24 2892.12
7567.48 1949.57 2673.99 2945.63
7739.2 1988.6 2738.29 3013.94
7939.73 2045.74 2808.96 3086.6
8153.31 2100.89 2885.19 3168.74
837 1. 23 2152.27 2965.75 3254.65
8604.6 2212.41 3051.34 3342.23
8844.93 2271.79 3140.04 3434.43
9122.31 2356.55 3237.59 3529.44
real wages and salaries (millions of 1981 dollars)
real wages and salaries in basic sector (millions
of 1981 dollars)
real wages and salaries in service~ (millions of
1981 dollars)
real wages and salaries in government (millions of
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1981 dollars) --~----------------------------------~
SOURCE: MAP Model Base Case Projections. [
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Total government wages grow throughout the period at an overall rate
of 3.7 percent with the growth rate for the first 10 years (5.2 per-
cent) considerably above that for the second period (2. 3 percent).
Projections of real wage rates are shown in Table 77. These include
the real wage rates for the basic sector (WRNS.81), the support sector
(WRSP. 81), and government (WRG9. 81). Basic sector real wage rates
increase rapidly from 1980 to 1986 (7.3 percent per year), decline at
a rate of 7.6 percent per year until 1990, and then increase at only
0.7 percent per year until 2000. Overall, the growth rate is 0.9
percent. Support sector rea 1 wage rates grow at an average annua 1
rate of 2.0 percent over the period 1980-1986, decline at a rate of
2.7 percent over the period 1986-1990, and rise at a rate of only 0.4
percent over the period 1990-2000. Overall the growth rate is only
0.2 percent for the entire period. Government wages show the greatest
rate of growth of 1.8 percent over the entire period.
Our discussion of income and wages has been in real terms. Over this
period inflation has been substantial. As shown in Table 78, for most
of the period both the Alaska and the United States inflation rates
are projected to be 7.0 percent or greater.
Government Revenues and Expenditures
State government revenue projections by source are shown in Table 79.
-~~ ______ · ___ ~~e-_v_a~,ia~l~~, ~nc_l_ude: total state government revenues (RSGF.81),
petro 1 eum revenues (RP9S. 81), revenues from the Federa 1 government
[
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TABLE 77. PROJECTED R.EAL 1-JAGE RATES: ALASKA, 1981 -2000
(1981 Dollars)
WRNS.81 WRSP.81 WRG9.81
1980 25025.4 20838.9 21618.4
1981 25201.5 20742.3 21807.8
1982 26301.3 20427.8 22526.8
1983 27019.9 20522.8 23043.1
1984 28846,.6 21123.9 23608.4
1985 33920.1 22419. 24265.8
1986 38274.7 23498·. 9 24978.3
1987 35099.4 22618.5 25430.4
1988 29667.6 21635.4 25641. 3
1989 28348.9 21305.4 25972.3
1990 27877.7 21024.1 26317.2
1991 28584.4 21086.1 26680.4
1992 28632.3 21125.2 27091.2
1993 28892. 21251. 27506.1
1994 29056.7 21342.4 27938.4
1995 29258.4 21418.8 28375.1
1996 29396. 21492.4 28825.8
1997 29503.5 21572.6 29284.9
1998 29660.8 21660.3 29750.3
1999 29778 .·7 21749.5 30222.6
2000 29976.9 21838.6 30700.4
WRNS.81 = Real wage rate in basic sector (1981 dollars)
NRSP.Sl = Real wage rate in services sector (1981 dollars)
y,1RG9.8l -Real \~age'rate in government (1981 dollars)
SOURCE: KAP Model Base Case Projections.
175
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TABLE 78. PROJECTED ALASKA.-AND U.S. INFLATION RATES, 1980 -2000
(Perce~t Change from Previous Year/100)
ALINF
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
ALINF = Alaska rate of inflation
USINF = U.S. rate of inflation
0.077·
0.089
0.079
.0.077
0.076
0.077
0.08
0.076
0.072
0.071
0.071
0.07
0.07
0.069
0.069
0.069
0.069
0.069
0.069
0.069
0.068
USINF
0. I 19
0.091
0.083
0.079
0.074
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
SOURCE: t-iAP !~ode 1 Base Case Projections.
176
TABLE 79 PROJECTED STATE GOVERNMENT REVENUES:
ALASKA, 1980 -2000
(Millions of Dollars)
-
RSGF.81 RP9S.81 RSFD.81 RSIN.81 RSNP.81
1980 2692.22 2014.95 345.618 123.388 553.878
1981 4 192. 1 3726.33 363.311 208.062 257.706
' 1982 5054.43 4164.37 306.687 281.427 608.626
1983 5367.86 4297.47 406.963 427.582 642.812
1904 5879.05 4649.52 427.574 555.758 673.77
1985 6673.3 5269.06 460.254 676.658 727.584
1986 7426.45 5752.89 501.409 855.013 818.545
~987 8020. 16 6092. 522.459 1051.22 876.948
1988' 7911.4 5776.34 526.634 1248.37 886.692
1989 8459.53 6165.5 530.606 1411.77 882.267
1990 8109.96 5630.15 533.6 1604.5 875.308
1991 7798.32 5154.3 543.126 1763.06 880.963
1992 7541.41 4758.18 553.048 1889,_14 894.096
1993 7673.88 4773.89 564.856: 1989.98 910.004
1994 7392.73 4377.32 577.337. 2087.26 928.153
1995 7008.22 3907.81 591.025 2150.64 949.773
1996 6689.39 354 1. 56 605.499 2174.19 973.645
~997 6602.4 3439.79 620.242 2163.84 998.781
1998 6355.28 3192.31 635.488 2138.02 1024.95
1999 6077.07 2938.51 651.166 2086.07 1052.49
2000 5788.25 2698.28 668.265 2007.42 108.2. 56
RSGF.81 = Total state government revenues (millions of 1981 dollars)
R?95.8l = Petroleum revenues (millions of 1981 dollars) ·
RSFD.81 =Federal grants (millions of 1981 dollars) RSIP.8l = • L t . ( • 1n~eres earn1ngs millions of 1981 dollars)
RSNP.8l =Non-petroleum revenues (millions of 1981 dollars)
SOURCE: MAP Model B~se Case Projections.
177
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(RSFD.81), interest earnings (RSIN.81), and non-petroleum revenues
(RSNP.81). Non-petroleum revenues include federal grants; thus, total
state revenues are the sum of petro 1 eum revenues, interest earnings,
and non-petro 1 eum revenues. Tota 1 revenue grows steadily from 2. 7
billion dollars in 1980 to a peak of 8.5 billion dollars in 1990, and
declines steadily thereafter to 5.8 billion dollars in 2000. The bulk
of these revenues are accounted for by petroleum revenues. These peak
in 1989 at 6.2 billion dollars, and decline through the year 2000 to a
level of 2.7 billion dollars.
Receipts from the Federa 1 government increase throughout the period,
from .3 billion dollars in 1980 to .7 billion dollars in 2000. In-
terest earnings rise from .1 billion dollars in 1980 to nearly 2.2
billion dollars in 1996, and then begin to decline. Other revenues
(RSNP.81 -RSFD.81) increase from .2 to .4 billion dollars over the
period.
Expenditure data are presented in Table 80 and include total State
government real expenditures (E99S.81) and real per capita expendi-
tures (ESPC. 81). Total expenditures grow at 6. 3 percent over the
entire period and at 10.4 percent for the first 10 years. During the
1990s the rate is considerably lower at 2.3 percent.
Growth of real per capita expenditures is very rapid at 70 percent per
r ' year over the period 1980-1983. Thereafter ~~e~di~ure~ fl uc_:tuate -~~~-------6-~------~--~------~---~-------~-~------~----~--------~-~--~---
[
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between 7900 and 9600 dollars per capita. ·
178
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TABLE 80 ~ ·PROJECTED STATE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES:
ALASKA, 1980 -2000
(Millions of 1981 Dollars)
E99S.81 ESPC.81
1980 1847.4 459.4. 86
1981 2726.79 6561.45
1982 3362.02 7756.61
1983 3570.36 7952.99
1984 376 1. 97 8095.8
1985 3970.72 8109.23
1986 4365.8 8378.04
1987 4894.61 9111 .. 58
1988 5082.58 9405.64
1989 5032.65 926 1; 23
1990 4984.38 9133.95
1991 4967 •. 14 8982.53
1992 4964.51 8856.35
1993 5063.96 8890.66
1994 5196.57 8973.23
1995 5340.2 9057.66
1996 5504.29 9164.06
1997 5675.02 9274.36
1998 5850.85 9383.08
1999 6036.27 9497.97
2000 6230.01 9605.34
E99S.81 =.Total state government expenditures (millions of 1981 dollars)
ESPC.8l = Per capita state expenditures (1981 dollars)
[
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--~ --------5-GUR.-er:----r·'rAP-t•'ro-d-el--B-a-se---c-a-s-e-_:Pro-jee:-t-i-o-n s-.------~-~---------------------------· --------------------~-[ ----
179
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As shown in Table 81, the permanent. fund balance peaks in 1995 and
declines thereafter. This downturn occurs when the decline in the
value of the fund, due to inflation, begins to exceed the increase in
value due to additions to the fund and reinvested interest earnings.
THE MAP REGIONAL BASE CASE PROJECTIONS: ANCHORAGE
The MAP regional model base case projections for Anchorage are shown
in Table 82. The Anchorage population is projected to rise from
179 thousand in 1980 to 286 thousand in 2000, resulting in an overall
growth rate of 2.4 percent. The growth rate is higher during the
first decade (3.0 percent per year) than the second decade (1.8 per-
cent per year). Total employment rises slightly faster than popu-
lation (2.6 percent per year). However, employment declines slightly
from 1988 to 1990. Support sector employment rises from 49.3 percent
to 53.4 percent of total employment, basic sector employment rises
from 14.4 percent to 16.7 percent of total employment, while govern-
ment employment falls from 36.4 to 29.8 percent of total employment.
THE MAP REGIONAL BASE CASE PROJECTIONS: BRISTOL BAY
MAP regional model projections for Bristol Bay are shown in Table 83.
Population is projected to increase from 5,185 in 1980 to 6,378 in
2000, or at a rate of only 1.0 percent. Total employment grows only
slightly faster, at a rate of 1.3 percent. The share of basic sector
employment in total employment is projected to fall from 46.6 percent
[___ ___ ~ ::n~9~ :;:~:~:d t~: · :;::• f::m 9 ::~:~::~.::P ~:Y;:~~r:;~: 1 ::;-~--~~--~--~-
L
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TABLE 81. PROJECTED ALASKA PERHANENT FUND BALANCE AND
PERMANENT FUND BALANCE PER CAPITA: 1980 to 2000
(Millions of 1981 Dollars and 1981 Dollars, respectively)
BAL99.81 BL9PC.81
1980 2229.99 5546.45
1981 3200.5 7701.34
1982 5015.59 11571.6
1983 6879.1 15323.2
1984 8954.18 19269.5
1985 11481~7 23448.7
1986 14202.2 27254.2
1987 16922.8 31502.7
1988 19251.2 35625.5
1989 21995. 40475.9
1990 24230.8 44403.2
1991 26032.5 4 7077.
1992 27476. 1 49015.5
1993 28873.1 5069 1. 7
1994 29783. 51428.1
1995 30132.3 51108. 2
1996 30004.2 49953.9
1997 29653.5 4 84 6 1.
1998 28931. 46397.
1999 27823. 43779.
2000 26342.3 40614.2
BAL99.81 = Accumulated Permanent Fund balance (millions of 1981 dollars)
BL9PC.81 = Per capita accumulated Permanent Fund balance (1981 dollars)
~OURCE: MAP Model Base Case Projections.
181
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P.02 =
!~. 02 =
8.02 =
G.02 =
S.02 =
TABLE 82 . BASE CASE PROJECTED POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT,
ANCHORAGE CENSUS DIVISION, 1980 -2000
P.02 M.02 8,02 G.02 5.02
1980 179.118 9-1.262 13.532 34.276 46.453
19131 183.547 97.707 1-1.373 35.793 47.5-1
19132 190.959 103.788 16.191 37.421 50.176
1983 197.529 108.541 17. 107 38.464 52.97
1984 202.7013 112.868 17.929 39.218 55.721
1985 209.807 119.617 19.479 . 39.741 60.397
19136 220. 193 129.547 21. 852 4 1. 238 66.457
19137 230.3115 136.328 23.056 43 .. 926 1)9.3-16
19813 237.4113 1313.367 22.665 44.969 70.733
1989 239.566 137. 107 22.078 44.527 70.502
1990 239.737 134.851 21.744 44. 145 68.962
1991 243.02 135.232 21.94 8 43.817 69.467
1992 245.945 135.938 21.887 44.04 1 70.011
1993 250.077 137.706 22.289 'i 44. 174 71.244
1994 254.281. 139.73 22.75 44.46 72.52
1995 258.997 142.202 23.286 44.785 74.132
1996 263.903 144.916 23.838 45.194 75.885
1997 268.921 147.74-1 24.407 45.624 77.714
1998 27-1.213 150.756 25.028 46.052 79.676
"1999 279.641 153.89 25.664 46.511 81.716
2000 285.621 157.404 26.353 46.98 84.07
Population, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Total employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Basic sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Government employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
Supp01"t sector employment, Anchorage census division (thousands)
SOURCE: MAP regional model projections.
182
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TABLE 83. BASE CASE PROJECTED POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT,
BRISTOL BAY REGION, 1980 -2000
P.06 M.06 B.06 G.06 s .06
1900 s. 1 as 3.832 1 • 784 1 • 2 1 0.839
1 9 0 1 5.24? 3.923 1. 795 1.286 0.043
1902 5.301 4.046 1.815 1. 368 0.863
19133 5.359 4. 136 1. 827 1. 42 0.889
1904 5.392 4.216 1.037 1.457' 0.922
1905 5,366 4.296 1. 857 1. 4 83 0.957
1906 s.:;o4 4.4<18 1.007 1.550 1. 003
1907 5.59 4.646 1 . 902 .. 1. 694 1.05
19138 5.776 4. 727 1 • 897 1.746 1. 004
1909 5.841 4.695 1. 889 1. 722 . 1 .084
1990 5.1386 4.65 1.804 1 • 701 1 .065
1991 5.917 4.624 1. 80<1 1.682 1. 050
1992 5.974 4.637 1. 883 ·, 1 • 692 1. 062
1993 6.02 4.656 1.087 1. 697 1. 071
1994 6.07 4.604 1.092 1. 71 1. 081
1995 6. 110 4.717 1. 890 1. 725 1. 094
1996 6. 169 4.757 1.905 1. 7<15 1. 100
1997 6.221 4.0 1. 912 1.765 1. 123
1993 6.272 4.1343 1. 919 1.785 1. 139
1999 6.325 4.039 1.926 1.807 1. 155
2000 6.378 4.936 1. 935 1.83 1. 172
?.06 -Population, Bristol Bay Region (thousands)
M.06 = Total employment, Bristol Bay Region (thousands)
B.06 = Basic sector employment, Bristol Bay Region (thousands)
G.06 = Government employment, Bristol Bay Region (thousands)
S.06 = Support sector employment, Bristol Bay Region (thousands)
SOURCE: MAP regional model projections.
183
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share of support sector employment in total employment is projected to
rise from 21.9 percent to 23.7 percent.
THE SCIMP MODEL BASE CASE PROJECTIONS: THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
This section discusses the SCIMP base case projections of employment
and population in the Aleutian Islands. In the tables, years 1-20
\ represent the years 1981 to 2000.
Basic sector employment projections from 1981 to 2000 are summarized
in Table 84. Total exogenous employment rises from 2,656 to 9,145, a
growth rate of 6. 7 percent. All of this growth is the result of
expansion in the bottomfish industry. The share of enclave employment
in total employment falls from 81.9 percent to 58.5 percent, reflect-
ing the assumption built into the bottomfish employment projections of
a rising resident share.
Projected government employment is shown in Table 85. Total govern-
ment emp 1 oyment rises from 3, 294 to 4, 284. Most of the increase
results from an increase in state and local government employment from
410 to 1,329. This increase is proportional to the increase in resi-
dent population.
Table 86 summarizes total employment. Support sector employment--
equal to basic sector and government employment multiplied by employ-
ment multiplier~, rises from 459 to 1,547, at a rate of 6.6 percent
per year. Total employment rises from 6,410 to 14,975, at a rate of
184
TABLE 84. SCIMP MODEL: BASIC SECTOR
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, BASE CASE
Projecti()_D -
. Year Ei'1A EMX ENCLV.
H·1A
El-l X
ENCLV
Et·iBA
(1=1981)
1! 466. I 15. I 2175. I 2656.
__ 2 I ___ -· _ 4_8_2 .• _.I __ ,_ __ l __ ;i __ ._l_· __ _2_:?. 0 9 • I 2 7_9_6__.
31 502. I · 24. I 2519. I 3045.
41 5~6. I 30. I 2714. I 3270.
. __ .5 I _______ !:!..5_'Z__c _ _,l • ~~-t__l __ _.?~_:59. I 34 28.
6I 595. I 30. 1. 28~!6. I 3451..
7I 642~ I 24. I 2731. I 3397.
-·--8 L ___ ---· .6 9_9_c:_l ____ 15_._:_l_. ___ 2~.:!.6__t___]: __ ~2 70__!_
9I 769. I 1.5. I 2652. I 3436.
~OI 856. I 15. I 2760. I 3631 •
. __ 11 I ___ 96 L_. _ _r ___ l_5 ..• __ I ___ 2_S.8..9_, _ _r 3.B6_~
12! l089. I ~5. I 3036. I 4140.
13I 1244. I 1.5. I 3207~ I 4466.
14 I ____ 1_4 34_t __ J_ __ .. _.1_5_. __ ) ___ ~4.0_1_ •. J. 4~L~h.
15I 1665. I 1.5. I 3634. I 5314.
~6J ~944. I 15. I 3899. I 5858.
--~7.1 ______ .. 2282_._1 _____ ) 5_. ____ I ___ ___B_2_0_6. I 65_Q~__!_
18I 2691. I 15. I 4557. I' 7263.
191 3185. I 15. I 4967. 1 8167.
20I 3781. I 15. I 5349.· I. 9145.
= Fishing and fish processing resident employment
= Other basic sector resident employment
= Basic sector nonresident employment
= Total basic sector employment (resident and nonresident)
185
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r~
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n
I
L TABLE 85. SCIMP MODEL: GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, BASE CASE
r l~
[
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L
'
Projection
Year
( 1 =1961) EHL FGVT EMIL EMGT
~ __ 1 L _ . _ A:L 0 • ___ I ____ .7_1_Q_._~-~-----2.12;u-~J ___ 1?94-L
21 · 429. I 713. I 2175. I 3317.
31 443. I 717. I 2175. I 3334.
----~1 _______ 46_0~ __ J_ ________ 7_20. I 2175. I 3356.
51 478. I 72-1·.---~------21"75·.-~-· --3"3_:7_7:-
61 496. I 727. I 21Z5. I 3399.
7! 515. I 731. I 2175. I 3421.
81 535. I 735. I 2175. I 3444.
91 556. I 738. I 2175. I 3470.
~-ox 58:t• ___ _I ______ _?_4_~_. ___ I ____ ~.tL?_. _ _l ____ }~_Q_~_.
11! 616. I 746. I 2175. I 3537.
12I
131
14I
1 5 I.
654. I
697. __ ~
748. I
808. I
750. I 2175. I 3578.
75? _. __ I .. _____ _? _ _1_?~_.!_ __ 1 ___ ~-?.?_~_.!_
757. I 23.75. I · 3680.
761. I 2175. l 3744.
:i 6I _ 880_. __ J _______ .. 76!:j. _ _I _____ ?_1]_5 • __ } ___ ~.§Z.9 __ ~
l7I 965. l 768. I 2175. l. 3908.
1 8 I :i. () 6 5 • I 7 7_'2. • I 21 7 5 • I 4 0 1 ~ •
~-'l'I U 85 ._ I 776. I 21?:5!.._~-------~J}.Z.!.._
2 0 I 1. 3 2 9 • I 7 8 0 • I 2 1 7 5 • I 4 2 8 4 •
---+----------+----------+-----~----+----------
EML = State and local government employment (all resident)
FGVT = Federal government civilian employment (all resident)
EMIL= F,ederal government military employment (all resident)
ElltGT = Tot a 1 g_o\l_e!"~m~~-t_ ~m_p_lg.}'m_~nt_j(i ll re_sjd_ent)_ __ _
186
'
TABLE 86. SCIMP MODEL: EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, BASE CASE
projection
Year
(1=1981)
2I
3l
4J:
51
61
71
8J:
9J:
:1.0 l
:1.:1. I
~.:n
L3I
141
151
l.6J.
17I
:1.9 I
"20I
E~1BA
2t:.5b. I
"2706. I
3045 .. I
327 0 + J:
~-428~ J:
3~51 •. l
3397. I
3270. I
34::>6. J:
3()31. J:
3865. J:
4140. l
4466. J:
485~ ., I
53:1.4. I
5858) J:
6503. J:
72!-,~. I
8167. I
914~j. J:
Et~GT EMS EMTT ·---~--·-----3294. I 459. I 6410.
~317. I 469. I 6492.
3334. I 485. I 6864.
3356. -··I--·---· -:Soo-:--I----7126·:
3377. I 516. I 7321.
3399. I 530. I 7380.
3 4 21. • I -·------·54 4·-. ·--c --~·-;7'3 6.2 ~-
3444. I 560. I 7274.
3470. I 585. J. 7490.
---·-· ---·-. ··--·····--· -----------3501. l 615. I 7747.
3537. I 652. I 8054.
3578. I 695. I 8414.
3t:.25 ,. I---··-· --7 47·:---f----lf83 9 ;··
3680. I 810. I 9343.
3744. I 885. r 9943. ... -----· -------------3820. I 975. I 1.0652.
3908. I 1082. I 11494.
4013. I 1211, I 12487.
4137. I 12t-6-~-·-·:r-·---··i36-69;-
4284. I 1547. I 14975.
EMBA = Total basic sector ~mployment (resident and nonresident)
EMGT = Total government employment (all resident)
EMS = Total support sector employment (all resident)
EMTT = Total employment (resident and nonresident)
187
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[
4.6 percent per year. Resident civilian employment (not shown in the
[ table) rises from 2,060 to 7,452, at a rate of 7.0 percent per year.
[ Different measures of population are shown in Table 87. The civilian
[ resident population rises from 4,530 in 1981 to 15,825 in 2000 as a
result of increased resident bottomfish employment. This represents a
[ rate of population increase of 6.8 percent per year. Enclave popu-
[
lation (which includes nonresident fishermen) rises from 2,175 to
5,349, at a rate of 4.9 percent per year. The total population of the
[ region, including military and military dependents as well as enclave
workers, rises from 10,620 to 25,089, a growth rate of 4.6 percent per
[ year.
[
[
r~
[
[
[
[
[------------
[
rc
L 188
·TABLE 87. SCIMP MODEL: POPULATION PROJECTIONS, BASE CASE
Projection
Year
{1=1981) BPOPP
----1 I.--· 4530 •. I
2I 4675. I
3I 4862, I
. _ 4 L _____ 50 4 8 • I
5I 5241.. I
6I 5438. I
7I 5646. I
81 5873. I
9I .~:1.67~ I
10I .... 6509. I_
:l.l. I 6902. I
12I 7362 •. I
_ _l 3 I 7 9 0 0 • J
:1.4I 8537. I
15I 9293. I
__ :1.6 L _ 101.8 7. I
17I 1~.25l. I
18I 125:1.8. I
19~I 14029. J
20I 1.5825. I
PMIL PRES. ENCLV BASPP
---3915 •.. .J: ____ 8445_._! _____ 2175 • ___ ! ____ '\. 0620._
3915. I 8590. I 2209. I :1.0799.
3915, I 8777 •. I ~ 2519, I 11296.
39 j_ 5 t_. !_ ___ -8963 ._ __ 1.. _____ 2714 •.. I ____ 116 77 •..
3915. I 9156. I 2839, I 11995.
3915. I 9353. I 2826. I 12179.
39:1.5. I 9561. I 2731.. I 12292-.
3915. I 9788~ I 2556. I 12344.
3915. I 10082. I 2652. I 12734.
39 _15 • ___ I.___1_Q:4_2_4_._I ____ 22.60_• _ _I ____ 13184 • __
3915. I 10817~ I 2889. I 13706.
3915. I 11277. I . 3036. I 14313.
3915 •---~--J)Jilfj~ __ J ___ 3.?c()7_t __ :L ___ 15022 •-
3915, I :1.2452. I 3404. I 15856.
3915. I 13208. I -3634. I 16842.
3 9 1. 5 • _ I ___ J. .1t q_z_. .r_· ____ 3 a 9 9 • ___ r,_ ______ _,_ 8 o o l_. __
3915. I 15166. I 4206. I 19372.
39:1.5. I 16433. I 4557. I 20990.
391.~ • __ I ________ _11.9._"3_4_. ___ I ______ 496 z_. __ I ___ 22~ 11_. _
391.5. I 19740. I 5349. I 25089.
BPOPP =Civilian resident population
PMIL =Military and military dependent population
rPRES =Total resident population
ENCLV =Civilian enclave (nonresident) population
-------------8-A-S-PP-=-"Fo ta-1-po p u-}at+o n-~+re s+dent--and-n o nres-id ent-)
189
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[ __
l
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l
[
IV. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF THE NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
In this portion of the report, we describe the six North Aleutian
Shelf OCS sale cases and their projected impacts. Projections of sale
impacts are developed by adjusting the non-OCS base case assumptions
to include direct OCS impacts (primarily employment) and rerunning the
models. The differences between the new projections and the base case
projections represent the combined direct and indirect impacts of OCS
development. We present tables of both absolute impacts (i.e.,
increases in employment) and percentage impacts (i.e., percentage
changes in employment).
The OCS Sale Cases
We analyze the impacts of six different OCS cases, which we refer to
as the low, mean, high, alternative four, mean offshore loading, and
alternative four offshore loading cases, respectively. All of these
cases assume that some oi 1 and gas resources are discovered and
developed. Given this assumption, the low case assumes a level of
resources that will occur with 95 percent probability, the mean case
assumes a 1 eve 1 of resources that wi 11 occur with 50 percent proba-
bility, and the high case assumes a level of resources that will occur
with only 5 percent probability.
For all of the cases, the Alaska OCS office provided estimates of
employment in different activities for the exploration, construction,
and operations phases of OCS development. This information is repro-
duced in Appendix C. In order to use these employment figures in the
190
MAP and SCIMP models, it was necessary to make assumptions about the
share of employees who would be Alaska residents, and the share who
would be residents of the Aleutian Islands. These assumptions are
discussed in Appendix C. Table 88 presents resident Alaskan OCS
employment for each case. These figures were utilized for the MAP
model projections. In the mean case, resident Alaskan employment
rises from 103 in 1984 to 2,072 in 1989, and then declines to a level
of 1,597 in 1994, remaining at this level for the rest of the pro-
jection period. In the low case, maximum employment of 597 is reached
in 1987, declining to a constant level of 492 after 1992. In the high
case, maximum employment is 3,436 in 1990, declining to a constant
level of 2,635 after 1996. In the alternative four case and the mean
offshore loading cases, employment levels are approximately 80 percent
of the mean case levels. In the alternative four offshore loading
case, employment levels are approximately 60 percent of the mean case
levels.
Tables 89-94 present Aleutian Islands onshore resident and enclave OCS
employment associated with each case. These figures were utilized for
the SCIMP model projections. In the mean case, local resident employ-
ment rises to 161 by 1991, and thereafter remains constant throughout
the projection period. Maximum local resident employment is 53 for
the low case, 305 for the high case, 127 for the alternative four
case, 119 for the mean offshore loading case, and 95 for the alterna-
r
[
[
[
[
[
t
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
-----~~~-~--~-. ti v = _fo ~--~-~~=ho~~e-~~ a~ i ~~~-case_. -... -. ~-~----.--~~ .. -... -. ------·---.-. --~----·------~---·-----··-~-. -~--[ __ _
191
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r-
L
[
[
[
[
[ear
1980
[
1981
1982
~983
1984
[~~~~
1987
1988
1989
[
'1990
1991
j1992
1993
[
1994
1995
~996
1997
1998
[
1999
2000
[
[
[
L-----,
L
r "
L
t~ean
Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
o. 103
0. 134
0.687
1. 04 1
1. 781
2.072
1. 738
1. 613
1. 584
1. 592
1. 597
1. 597
1. 597
1. 597
1. 597
1. 597
1. 597
TABLE 88. NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF OCS RESIDENT ALASKAN
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP MODEL PROJECTIONS
(Thousands) ·
~1ean Case
Low High Alternative Offshore Alternative IV Case
Case Case IV Case Loading Offshore Loadino
~~ -0. 0. o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. o. 0. 0. 0.
0. o. 0. 0. 0.
0.061 0. 158 0.087 0. 103 0.087
0.067 0.205 0.106 0. 134 0. 106
0.38 0. 19 0.395 0.687 0.395
0. 597 0.664 0.829 1 .041 0.829
0.488 1. 619 1. 579 1. 588 1. 444
0.429 2.715 1. 54 1 1. 767 1. 347
0. 453 3.348 1. 3 1.441 1. 101
0.461 3.436 1. 237 1.215 0.958
0.492 3. 132 1. 248 1. 224 0.968
0.492 2. 611 1. 257 1. 232 0.977
0.492 2.623 1. 26 1. 237 0.98
0.492 2.63 1. 26 1. 237 0.98
0. 492 2.635 1. 26 1. 237 0.98
0.492 2.635 1. 26 1. 237 0.98
0.492 2.635 1. 26 1. 237 0.98
0.492 2.635 1. 26 1. 237 0.98"
0.492 2.635 1. 26 1. 237 0.98
SOURCE: Alaska OCS Office; residency assumptions presented in Appendix C.
192
TABLE 89. OCS EMPLOYMENT INPUTS FOR SCIMP MODEL RUNS,
MEAN CASE
Year
Resident
Employment
Enclave
Employment
Dutch Harbor
Enclave
Employment
Cold Bay
Enclave
Employment
+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+ ··-· ··-~~----·-.
I1981I
I1982I
I19831
I1984I
It985I
I1986I
I:l. 987 I
I1988I
I.t 989 I
Il.990I
I1991I
Il.992I
Il.993I
11.994 I
o.
Ot
o.
35.
48t
73.
83.
123.
1.45.
158.
l.61.
1.61.
1.61.
t6l..
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
o.
o.
o.
:1.80.
266.
319.
311.
530.
733.
660.
630.
463.
463.
463.
I O. I 0. I
I Ot I O. I
I ________ _9 ··-· _!___ _ ___ 0 • I
I 140. I 40. I
I 207. I 59. I
I 223. I 96. I ····--·-·-------------._. .. ___ .
I 192. I 119. I
I 1.32. I 398. I
I 89. I 644. I ----------~-------------------------------.-----I 89. I 571.. I
I 57. I 573. I
I 57. I 406. I
I 57. I 406. I
I 57. I 406. I
I1995I -161. I -.. 463. I ___ --57._. __ _1 ______ __4_0_6_.__ I
I1996I 1.61. I 463. I 57. t 406. I
Il.997I 161. I 463. I 57. I 406. I
I 1998 I 16 L .. I 46 3. _I -______ 5_7_. ___ !_ _____ _406 L. I
I1999I 1.6:1.. I 463. I 57. I 406. I
I2000I 1.61. I 463. I 57. I 406. I
+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
r· ,.
-----sotJRCc-:-A-n-s"lra-ocs-offi_c_e_(_s_e_e_A_p_pe-rrcnx-c-yc-. ________________ [_
[
193
l~
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
r-
L
TABLE 90. OCS EMPLOYMENT INPUTS FOR SCIMP MODEL RUNS,
LOW CASE
Year
Resident
Employment
Enclave
Employment
Dutch Harbor
Enclave
Employment
Cold Bay
Enclave
Employment
~----~-----~----~----------~----------+----------+
I :1. ~81 I. 0. I 0 •. _ I __________ (h __ _.l ____ {b _____ I
I1982I b. I O. I 0. I o. I
I:I.983I O. T O. I O. I O. I
I 1 9 8 4 I 19 • _ I 51 • __ ~------· __ 3 __ Q_,.! ____ I______ . ___ 2J_. ___ I
I:t985I 21.-I 67. I 44. I 23. I
I1986I 37• I 93. I 52. I 41. I
I:1.987I 4_5~ _I __ 70. __ ,1 ________ 16~ I 54. I
I:1.988I 41. I 129. I 32. I 97. I
11989I 39. I :1.20. I 24. I 96. I
I:1990I _______ _:-4?•. _____ I ___ l53. I ______ 24. I _ _1_2,9_._ I
11991I 48. I 127. I 24. I :1.03. I
Il992I 53. I 126. I 24. I 102. I
I1993I 53_. I. 126. I _______ 24! .. J ________ 10.2L_ I
11994I 53. I 126. I 24. I 102. I
I1995I 53. I 126. I 24. I 102. I
I1996I 53. I 126. I 24. I 102. I -·------······ 119971 53. I 126. I 24. I 102. I
I1998I 53. I 126. I 24. I 102. I
I 1 9 9 9 I . ... 53 • . .. L 1 2 6 • I 2 4 • I_ ____ . _ _ 1 0 2 • I
120001 53. I 126. I 24. I 102. I +----+----------+----------+----------+----------+
194
,.
TABLE 91 . OCS EMPLOYMENT INPUTS FOR SCIMP MODEL RUNS,
HIGH CASE
Year
Resident
Employment
I198:li 0.
Il982I o~
I:l9831 o.
I1984I 57.
I1.985I 76.
I1986I 70.
!1. 987I 64.
I:l988I 120.
I1989I :t82.
I1990I 272.
I1.991.I 305.
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Enclave
Employment
o.
o.
o.
285.
397.
371.
299.
764.
I
I
I ,-r-•
I
I
I
I
I
Dutch Harbor
Enclave
Employment
o. I
o. I
Cold Bay
Enclave
Employment
o. I
o. I
-----~._ _____ 0. ___ ~"( __________ .0. -I
2.22 t I 63. I
309. I 88. I
2 8? _._ ___ !__ ______ 82. I
208. I 91. I
200. I 564. I
~.428. ...... _ _! ____ -__ 8 .2...!.._J,__ ___ l_ J:3.? ·---I
1823. I 114. I 1709. I
1642. I 1.30. I 1.512. I
I1992I. .314. _I ........ :l453. ___ 1 ___ _:l_30 .• __ l ___ 1323._. _____ I
I1993I 272. I 839. I 73. I 766. I
Il994I 272. I 839. I 73. I 766. I
I 19951 . 272 •-_I. 839. ___ I_ ____ Z3. ___ l _____ _7_66. ___ I
I1996I 272. I 839. I 73. I 766. I
!19971 272. I 839. I 73. I 766. I
I1998I 272. I __ ... 839. _L ______ ]_J. _____ l_ _________ ]6()_.__ I
I:l999I 272. I 839. I 73. I 766. I
I2000I 272. I 839. I 73. I 766. I
+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+
[
[
~
r~
[
['
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
---------SUORCE~ATas-ka ~CS-OTfTce--(see-Appe-n-dTxCJ:----------_------------------------~--------b-
[
195 .-L
L~
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[
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[
[
L
l
[
L
r,
L
TABLE 92 . OCS EMPLOYMENT INPUTS FOR SCIMP MODEL RUNS,
ALTERNATIVE FOUR CASE
Year
Resident
Employment
Enclave
Employment
Dutch Harbor
Enclave
Employment
Cold Bay
Enclave
Employment
t----t----------t----------T----------t----------T
~19811 o. J: o. r o. eJ: o. I
I1982I o. I ~·
__ 0 *---~ L ___ . ___ : __ it~--L ~--~~-···~e--0._. ___ I
J:198'3l o. J: o. I o. J: o. J
J:1984J 29. J: 1'38. I 107. I 31. I
Il985I 36. I :t. 8 9 ·---~ I__ e~--e•~JA z • ~ I 42. .. I
I1.986I 53. I 248. I 181 • J: 67. I
I1987I 63. I 240. I :1.50 ·• I 90. I
J::t.988I ... 104. I. 393. --·. I 124 • J: 269. I
I:J.989I 111. I 493. I 73. I 420. I
I1990I 122. I 462 .• I 73. I 389. I
J.:I.991I :1.24. I 44:1.. I 48. I 393. I
119921 127 •· I 368. I 48. I '320. I
I1993J: 127. I 368. I 48. I 32.0. r
I1994I :1.27·. I 368. I 48. I 320. I ----
I1995I 127. I 368. I 48. I 320. I
I1996I 127. I 368. I 48. I 320. I
I1997I 127. I 368. I 48. I 3 2_0~· I
I :1. 998I 127. I 368. I 48. I 320 ·• I
I1999I 12.7. I '368. I 48. I '320. I
I2000I 127. I '368. I 48. I 320. I +----+----------+----------+----------+----------+
SOURCE: A las ka OCS Of(i ce (see -Appendfx C). ~~
196
TABLE 93 . OCS EMPLOYMENT INPUTS FOR SCIMP MODEL RUNS,
MEAN OFFSHORE LOADING CASE
Year
Resident
Employment
Enclave
Employment
Dutch Harbor
Enclave
Employment
Cold Bay
Enclave
Employment
t----t----------~----------T----------T---~------T
I1981I o. I o. I_ ____ Q. _____ x __ _:_ _____ o_ .._ __ I
J.:I.982I o. I o. I o. I o. I
I:I.983I o. I o. I o. I o. I
I1984I -. 35. ... I ----180. I _14_Q + ____ ;r -------.4.Q + --I
I1985I 48~ I 266. I 207. I 59. I
I1986I 73. I 319. I 223. I 96. I
I:t.987I 83. I .. 311 + I ______ L?.? __ ~ ____ 1:__ ________ 1l_?_• __ I
I1988I 108. I 286. I 132. I 154. I
I1989I U.9. I 263. I 89. I 174. I
I1990I 118. -... I 263. -------I _________ B..£_L_ ___ _r. __ t74.L .... I
I1991I 1.07. I t57. I 57. I 100. I
I1992I 107. I 157. I 57. I 1.00. I
Il.993I 107. I 157. ----I ------52__. ___ I ____ _ ___ too .• __ J
I1994I :1.07. I 157. I 57. I 1.00. I
I1995I 107. I 157. I 57. I 100. I
I1996I 1.07 + I :t. 57+ -··I ---· ---__ ;i]_•----~ --__ _:t.Q_Q~_ . I
I1997I 1.07 + I l.57. I 57. I 100. I
Il. 998 r. :1.07 + I 157. I 57. I 100. I
I1999I l.07. I 157. I 57. I 100. I
I2000I 107. I 157. I 57. I 100. I +----+----------+----------+----------+----------+
197
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[
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_______ [_
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[
[
TABLE 94. OCS EMPLOYMENT INPUTS FOR SCIMP MODEL RUNS,
ALTERNATIVE FOUR OFFSHORE LOADING CASE
Year
Resident
Employment
Enclave
Employment
Dutch Harbor
Enclave
Employment
Cold Bay
Enclave
Employment
+----+--~-------+----------+---------~+----------+
J:1981I '0. I o. I o. I 0. I
l1982I ... 0.---1----·-----o. ---r---·------o.---1 -<> • ---·I
I1.983I o. r o. I o. I o. I
I1984I 29. I 138. I 107. I 31. I
I1985I ~~6 + ··-I -· '· 89. --I ···· ----l 4 7 + · I ..... ------4 2+-I
I1986I 53. I 248. I 181. I 67. I
I:1.987I 63. I 240. I 1.50. I 90. I
J1988J. . ··-·. ---95. --I ·-----· 260. --r------124. r --136.· I
I1989I 94. I 21.0. I 73. r. 137. I
I1990I 94. I 210. I 73. I 137. I
U.991I ·-·· 85. I 1.30+ I 48. I 82. I
I1992I 85. I 130. I 48. I 82. I
I1993I 85. r. 130. I 48. I 82. I
I 1. 9 9 4 I ----85··--1··----130.-I 48. I .. ---82. I
I1995I 85. I 130. I 48. I 82. I
I1.996I 85. I 130. I 48. I 82. I
I1.997I 85.---··r ·--130. I ---48 +-I 82. I
I:I.998I 85. .I 1.30. I 48. I 82. I
I1999J.' 85. I 130. I 48. I 82. r.
I2000I -85 + I 130. I 48. J. 82. I
+----+----------+----------+----------+----------+
[. · .. · · SOURCE<--/i las-ka-OGS-0-ff.iee--(-see Appendi-x-Gh--
[
r·
L
198
In the mean case, enclave employment peaks at 733 in 1989, and falls
to a constant level of 463 by 1992. In the low case, peak enclave
employment of 153 occurs in 1990, falling to a constant level of 126
by 1992. In the high case, peak enclave employment is 1,823, falling
to a constant level of 839 by 1993. For the alternative four, mean
offshore loading, and alternative four offshore loading cases, re-
spectively, peak enclave employment is 493, 319, and 260, falling
subsequently to constant levels of 368, 157, and 130.
In addition to generating employment, OCS development also results in
additional state revenues from property taxes on petroleum industry
facilities. Oil and gas property tax assumptions used· in the MAP
model projections are presented in Table 95. These assumptions are
based on estimates of taxable value of OCS facilities provided by the
Alaska OCS office.
[
[
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[
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[
[
[
[
[
[
r~
[
[
[
-------------------------------------~--------------_[_
[
199
"
L_,
[
[
[
[ Year
[ 1980
1981
1982
1983
[ 1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
[· 1989
1990
1991
1992
[ 1993
1994
1995
1996
[ 1997
1998
1999
2000
[
[
['
[
[
[
L
r~
L
TABLE 95. NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE OIL AND GAS PROPERTY TAX
ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR MAP MODEL PROJECTIONS
(Millions of Dollars)
Mean Low High Alternative.· Mean Offshore
Case Case Case Four Case Loading Case
o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. 0.133 o. 133 0.133 o. 133 0.133 0. 133 0. 133 0. 133 0.133 0. 133 0. 133 0. 133 0. 133 o. 133 0.133 0. 133 0. 133 0.133 0.133 0. 133 0. 133 0.133 0. ~33 33.737 0. 133 38.898 10.448 0.956 45.784 0.956 52.81 15. 117 74.208 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15.117 97.23 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15. 117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15.117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15. 117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15. 117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15. 117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15. 117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15. 117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15.117 109.892 59.035 0.956 68. 113 15. 117 109.892 59.035 0.956
SOURCE: See text.
200
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0. o. 133
0. 133
0. 133
0. 133
0. 133
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.956
Statewide Impacts
This section discusses statewide impacts of the North Aleutian Shelf
OCS cases, as projected by the MAP statewide model. The accompanying
tables present both absolute (numerical) impacts associated with the
six OCS cases as well as percentage impacts (the size of the impact as
a percentage of the base case projected value of the variables). The
impacts result primarily from the employment associated with the OCS
sales. Where OCS employment levels are similar between cases, the
projected impacts are also similar. Thus, impacts are generally
highest for the high case and 1 owest for the 1 ow case. Impacts for
the alternative four and mean offshore loading cases are slightly less
than for the mean case, and slightly lower still for the alternative
four offshore loading case. Our discussion of the impacts will focus
on the mean case and the high case. However, the tables permit quick
comparison with impacts for the other cases.
POPULATION
As shown in Table 96, the mean case results in a population impact of
9,085 in the year 2000, or a 1.4 percent increase over the base case
population. The maximum percentage impact over the base case popu-
lation is 1.15 percent, in 1989.
The high case population impact is 14,168 in the year 2000, with the
maximum percentage impact of 2.5 percent occurring in 1991.
201
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Year
f~ean
Case
A B S 0 L U T E
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.'24
0.375
1.964
3.403
6.095
7.868
7.859
7.924
7.626
7.635
7.705
7.875
8.087
8.325
8.573
8.828
9.085
TABLE 96 . PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE POPULATION
(Thousands)
Low
Case
High
Case·
Alternative
Four Case
Mean Offshore
Loading Case
I M P A C T
0.
0.
0. o,
0.137
0.197
1.07
1.907
2.073
2.113
2. 127
2.146
2.229
2.292
2.369
2.445
2.522
2.603
2.684
2.767
2.851
0.
o.
0.
0.
o:378
0.61
0.755
2.066
5.024
9.059
12.082
13. 84"
13.926
12.953
12.702
12.599
12.769
13.052
13.402
13.78
14. 168
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.212
0.314
1. 171
2.59
5. 127
6.039
6.022
6.04
5.888
5.933
6.025
6.18
6.356
6.549
6.749
6.953
7. 157
0.
0.
0.
0.
o:24
0.375
1.964
3.403
5.516
6.799
6.705
6 .. 457
6.295
6.296
6.416
6.589
6.786
6.\:197
7.213
7.434
7.656
P E R C E N T A G E I M P A C T
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.052
0.077
0.377
0.633
1.128
1. 448
1.44
1. 433
1. 361
1. 34
1. 331
1.336
1.346
1. 361
1. 375
1.389
1.401
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.03
0.04
0.205
0.355
0.384
0.389
0.39
0.388
0.398
0.402
0.409
0.415
0.42
0.425
0.43
0.435
0.439
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.081
0.125
0. 145
0.385
0.93
1. 667
2.214
2.503
2.484
2.274
2. 193
2. 137
2. 126
2. 133
2. 149
2. 168
2. 184
0.
0.
0.
0.
o'.046
0.064
0.225
0.482
0.949
1. 111
1. 103
1.092
1.05
1.042
1.04
1.048
1.058
1.07
1.082
1.094
1. 104
SOURCE: MAP Statewide Model Projections.
202
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.052
0.077
0.377
0.633
1 .021
1. 251
1. 229
1. 168
1.123
1.105
1. 108
1. 118
1. 13
1. 143
1. 157
1. 17
1. 18
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.212
0.314
1. 171
2.59
4.72
5.341
5.264
5.055
4.923
4.939
5.04
5. 179
5.333
5.499
5.669
5.842
6.017
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.'046
0.064
0.225
0.482
0.874
0.983
0.965
0.914
0.878
0.867
0.87
0.878
0.888
0.899
0.909
0.919
0.928
EMPLOYMENT
Tables 97-100 present projected impacts upon total employment and
employment in the basic, services, and government sectors: In the
mean case, 7,335 additional jobs occur in 1989, an increase of 2.5
percent in total employment (Table 97). In the high case, 12,758
additional jobs occur in 1991, or an increase of 4.3 percent in total
employment.
In 1989, for the mean case, the 2, 903 addi tiona 1 basic sector jobs
represent an increase of 4.5 percent in basic sector employment
(Table 98). In the high case, the 4,304 additional jobs in 1990
represent an increase of 6.7 percent in basic sector employment.
In the mean case, a maximum of 3,679 additional service sector jobs
are generated in 1991, an increase of 3.0 percent (Table 99). In the
high case, 6,792 additional service sector jobs are generated in 1992,
an increase of 5.5 percent.
In the mean case, a maximum of 1,255 additional government jobs are
generated in 1990, an increase of 1.2 percent (Table 100). In the
high case, 1,882 additional government jobs are generated in 1992, an
increase of 1.8 percent.
INCOME, WAGE RATES, AND INFLATION
Tables 101 and +02 present projected impacts on real personal income
and per capita personal income. For the mean case, the maximum impact
203
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[
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[
L
[
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[
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[
[
L
r·
L
Year
t~ean
Case
A B S 0 L U T E
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0 ..
0.221
0.375
1. 909
3.281
5.784
7.335
7.213
7.031
6.504
6.281
6.14
6.123
6. 152
6.214
6.287
6.37
6.454
TABLE 97
Low
Case
PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
(Thousands)
High
.Case
Alternative
Four Case
l~ean Offshore
Loading Case
I M P A C T
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 126
0.204
1 .055
1. 874
1.988
1. 951
1. 91
1. 868
1. 888
1. 886
1. 903
1. 926 .
1. 952
1. 977
2.003
2.031
2.059
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.347
0.59
0.724
1. 991
4.74
8.456
11.271
12.758
12.519
11. 153
10.49
10.025
9.884
9.874
9.943
10.046
10. 163
o.
0.
o.
0.
0. 192
0.314
1. 143
2.5
4.88
5.653
5.544
5.36
5.027
4.895
4.827
4.83
4.868
4.92
4.981
5.048
5. 115
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.221
0.375
1. 909
3.281
5.263
6.375
6. 145
5.691
5.312
5. 126
5.078
5.094
5. 147
5.209
5.28
5.356
5.433
P E R C E N T A G E I M P A C T
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1.995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.089
0. 141
0.655-
1.085
1. 924
2.469
2.46
2.386
2. 191
2.091
2.016
1. 976
1. 949
1. 932
1. 918
1. 905
1.888
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.051
0.07"6
0.362
0.62
0.661
0.657
0.652
0.634
0.636
0.628
0.625
0.622
0.618
0.615
0. 611
0.607
0.602.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.14
0.221
0.248
0.658
1. 577
2.846
3.845
4.329
4.218
3.713
3.444
3.236
3. 132
3.071
3.033
3.005
2.973
o.
0.
0.
o.
0.077
0. 118
0.392
0.827
1. 623
1. 903
1. 891
1. 819
1. 694
1.629
1. 585
1. 559
1. 542
1. 53
1. 519
1. 51
1.497
SOURCE: MAP Statewide Model Projections.
204
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.089
0. 141
0.655
1.085
1.751
2. 146
2.096
1. 931
1. 79
1.706
1.667
1. 644
1. 631
1. 62
1 . 611
1.602
1. 589
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.
0.
o.
0.
0. 192
0.314
1. 143
2.5
4.52
5.038
4.852
4.469
4. 166
4.033
4.003
4.023
4.065
4. 115
4. 17
4.229
4.29
0.
0 ..
0.
0.
0.'077
I 0.118
0.392
0.827
1. 504
1.696
1 .655
1. 516
1. 404
1. 342
1.314
1. 299
1.288
1. 28
1.272
1.265
1. 255
Year
l~ean
Case
A B S 0 L U T E
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
19~2
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.099
0.125
0.868
1. 382
2.441
2.903
2.314
2. 151
1. 96
1. 941
1. 937
1.943
1.955
1.971
1. 989
2.009
2.029
TABLE 98. PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE BASIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
Low
Case
High
Case
II~ PACT
0.
o.
o.
0.
0.059
0.079
0.501
0.817
0.723
0.673
0.627
0.596
0.601
0.603
0.607
0.613
0.619
0.625
0.631
0.637
0.644
o.
o.
o.
o.
o. 157
0.214
0.22
0.836
2.145
3.756
4.304
4.297
3.718
3. 172
3.097
3.061
3.063
3.074
3.096
3. 123
3. 152
(Thousands)
Alternative
Four Case
0.
o.
o.
0.
0.096
0. 117
0.497
1.09
2. 136
2. 178
1. 728
1.633
1. 533
1 .. 527
1. 529
1. 536
1. 547
1. 56
. 1. 575
1. 591
1.607
Mean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.099
0. 125
0.868
1.382
2. 162
2.438
2.038
1.841
1.805
1. 797
1.803
1.812
1. 826
1. 841
1.858
1. 875
1. 893
P E R C E N T A G E If~ PACT
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 171
0. 191
1. 166
1. 902
3.666
4.476
3.594
3.243
2.945
2.876
2.83
2.779
2.735
2.702
2.666
2.633
2.5~~ ..
0.
0.
0.
0.
o. 102
0. 121
0.673
1. 124
1.087
1.037
0.973
0.898
0.903
0.893
0.887
0.877
0.866
0.856
0.846
0.835
0~8'19
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.271
0.327
0.295
1. 151
3.221
5.79
6.684
6.479
5.586
4.701
4.525
4.378
4.285
4.214
4. 15
4.094
4-.01 .
0.
o.
0.
0.
0. 165
0. 179
0.668
1.5
3.208
3.359
2.683
2.463
2.303
2.263
2.234
2. 196
2.165
2.139
2. 111
2.085
.. -~·-044-
SOURCE: MAP Statewide Model Projections.
205
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 171
0. 191
1. 166
1. 902
3.248
3.758
3. 165
2.777
2.712
2.663
2.634
2.592
2.555
2.524
2.49
2.458
-2.408
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.096
0.117
0.497
1.09
1.943
1. 882
1. 568
1. 445
1. 42
1. 419
1.424
1. 433
1. 443
1. 455
1.468
1.482
1. 496
0.
0.
o.
o.
0.165
0. 179
0.668
1.5
2.919
2.901
2.435
2. 179
2. 134
2. 102
2.081
2.049
2.019
1. 994
1. 968
1. 943
.1 .• 903
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
r-
L
r
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
,-
L
Year
l~ean
Case
A 8 S 0 L U T E
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
"1988•
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 113
0.208
0.916
1. 496
2.682
3.419
3.643
3.679
3.432
3.313
3. 198
3. 182
3. 192
3.222
3.26
3.304
3.349
TABLE 99 PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
Low
Case
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE SERVICES EMPLOYMENT
(Thousands)
High
Case
Alternative
Four Case
l~ean Offshore
Loading Case
I M P A C T
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.059
0. 1
0.48
0.823
0.922
0.942
0.951
0.946
0.971
0.965
0.974
0.985
1 •
1 .012
1.026
1.041
1.056
0.
0.
0.
o.
0. 182
0.316
0.407
0.981
2. 182
3.847
5.512
6.622
6.792
6. 106
5.722
5.384
5.285
5.261
5.293
5.345
5.407
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.09
0. 162
0.559
1. 149
2.221
2.63
2.843
2.801
2.643
2.566
2.507
2.504
2.521
2.547
2.579
2.614
2.65
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 113
0.208
0.916
1. 496
2.436
2.987
3.009
2.794
2.586
2.458
2.417
2.419
2.445
2.477
2.514
2.555
2.596
P E R C E N T A G E II~ PACT
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 116
0. 195
0. 775
1. 215
2. 157
2.76
2.997
3.009
2.78
2.633
2.493
2.427
2.377
2.344
2.314
2.288
2.259
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.06
0.094
0.406
0.669
0.742
0.76
0.783
0. 774
0.787
0.767
0.759
0.751
0.745
0.736
0.729
0.721
0.712
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 186
0.296
0.345
0.796
1. 755
3. 106
4.534
5.417
5.501
4.852
4.46
4.106
3.937
3.827
3.757
3.702
3.647
SOURCE: MAP Statewide Model Projections.
206
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.092
0. 152
0.473
0.933
1. 786
2. 124
2.339
2.292
2. 141
2.04
1. 954
1. 909
1. 878
1. 852
1. 831
1 . 811
1. 788
0.
0.
0.
o.
0. 116
0. 195
0.775
1. 215
1. 96
2.41.2
2.475
2.286
2.094
1. 953
1. 883
1. 844
1. 821
1. 801
1. 785
1. 77
1.751
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.09
o. 162
0.559
1.149
2.051
2.356
2.416
2. 196
2.027
1. 933
1. 905
1. 912
1. 933
1. 959
1. 988
2.019
2.052
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.092
0. 152
0.473
0.933
1.65
1. 902
1. 987
1. 796
1. 642
1. 536
1.485
1. 458
1.44
1.425
1 . 411
1.399
1. 384
Year
~1ean
Case
A B S 0 L U T E
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
.2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.009
0.043
0. 126
0.404
0.662
1 .013
1. 255
1. 201
1. 112
1.027
1.005
0.997
1.006
1 .021
1.038
1.057
1.076
TABLE 100. PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
(Thousands)
Low
Case
High
Case
Alternative
Four Case
I M P A C T
o.
0.
0.
o.
0.008
0.025
0.075
0.234
0.342
0.337
0.332
0.326
0.316
0.319
0.322
0.327
0.334
0.34
0.346
0.353
0.359
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.009
0.059
0.097
0. 174
0.414
0.853
1. 456
1. 839
2.009
1 .. 875
1. 671
1. 58
1. 537
1.539
1. 554
1. 578
1.603
o.
o.
0.
o.
0.006
0.035'
0.086
0.262
0.523
0.844
0.973
0.925
0.852
0.801
0.791
0.791
0.8
0.813
0.827
0.843
0.858
~1ean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.009
0.043
0.126
0.404
0.665
0.95
1.098
1.055
0.921
0.871
0.859
0.864
0.876
0.891
0.908
0.926.
0.943
P E R C E N T A G E II~PACT
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
o.
o.
0.
0.009
0.045
o. 127
0.378
0.603
0.935
1 . 171
1 . 131
1 .041
0.959
0.932
0.916
0.915
0.918
0.924
0.93
-_Q •. ~3_6
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.008
0.026
0.076
0.219
0.312
0.311
0.31
0.308
0.296
0.298
0.298
0.301
0.303
0.306
0.308
0.31
0.312
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.009
0.063
0.098
0. 163
0.377
0.787
1. 358
1. 733
1. 882
1. 751
1. 549
1. 452
1.398
1. 385
1. 383
1. 389
1. 394
SOURCE: . MAP Statewide Model Projections.
207
o.
0.
0.
o.
0.007
0.037
0.087
0.245
0.477
0.779
0.908
0.871
0. 798'
o. 748.
0. 733'
0.727;
o. 728'
0.732 1
o. 736
0.742
0.747
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.009
0.045
o. 127
0.378
0.606
0.876
1.024
0.994
0.863
0.813
0.796
0.794
0.797
0.802
0.808
0.815
0.82 -----------------
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.006
0.035
0.086
0.262
0.526
0.8
0.868
0.828
0.718
0.681
0.674
0.679
0.689
0.701
0.714
0.728
0. 741
o.
0.
0.
o.
0.007
0.037
0.087
0.245
0.479
0.739
0.81
0. 78
0.673
0.636
0.625
0.624
0.627
0.631 i
0.635
0.64
0.645
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
l
r ,
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
l
r-
L
TABLE 101. PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE REAL PERSONAL INCOME
(Millions of 1981 Dollars)
, Year
Mean
Case
Low
Case
High
Case
Alternative
Four Case
Mean Offshore
Loading Case
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1_999
2000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
,1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
A B S 0 L. U T E
0.
0.
0.
0.
12.051
16.559
110. 184
166.871
289.074
343.414
286.836
270.379
236. 109
230.312
226.844
228.402
231.703
235.895
240.52
245.469
250.516
If~ PACT
0.
0.
0.
o.
6.359
8.426
59.246
92.699
83.996
78. 148
71.691
68.297
69.051
69.453
70.578
71.789
73.262
74.918
76.473
78.098
79.762
0.
0.
0.
0.
20.023
29.934
36. 199
105.875
258.668
449.953
533.145
554.398
491.035
408.426
384.773
370.285
369.816
373.328
379. 176
386. 102
393,516
P E R C E N T A G E I M P A C T
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 162
0. 193
1. 104
1. 674
3.094
3.761
3. 193
2.958
2.55
2.436
2.348
2.306
2.28
2.262
2.245
2.231
2.209
0.
0.
0.
0.
<LOBS
0.098
0.594
0.93
0.899
0.856
0.798
0.747
0.746
0.734
0.73
0.725
0.721
0.718
0.714
0.71
0. 70.3
o.
0.
o.
o.
0.269
0.348
0.363
1 .062
2.768
4.928
5.934
6.065
5.302
4.319
3.982
3.738
3.638
3.58
3.54
3.509
3.47
0.
o.
0.
0.
11'. 094
14.523
64.43
131.805
249.355
257.617
215.816
202.758
182.266
179.613
178.445
180.437
183.156
186.746.
190.496
194.461
198.48
o.
o.
0.
0.
0. 149
0. 169
0.646
1. 322
2.669
2.822
2.402
2.218
1. 968
1.899
1.847
1.822
1.802
1. 791
1. 778
1.767
1. 75
SOURCE: MAP Statewide Model Projections.
208
0.
0.
0.
o.
12.051
16.559
110.184
166.871
250.73
280.078
237.207
210.641
196.324
191.855
192.633
195.051
198.418
202.543
206.801
211.277
215.828
0.
0.
0.
0.
6. 162
0. 193
1. 104
1.674
2.683
3.068
2.64
2.304
2. 12
2.029
1. 994
1. 969
1. 952
1.942
1. 931
1. 92
1. 903
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.
o.
0.
o.
11 :094
14.523
64.43
131.805
222.578
217.078
185. 105
164.75
153.844
151 . 23
151.926
153.91
156.711
160.004
163.355
166.852
170.449
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 149
o. 169
0.646
1.322
2.382
2.378
2.06
1.802
1.661
1. 599
1. 572
1. 554
1. 542
1. 534
1. 525
1. 516
1.503
Year
l·iean
Case
A 8 S 0 L U T E
1980
1981
1982
1983
198~
~985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
199~
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
17.645
20.367
138.738
191.871
336.117
383. 16
284.434
248.52
193.801
179.414
167.484
160.848
155.812
151.566
147.512
143.727
139.371
TABLE 102. PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME
(1981 Dollars)
Low
Case
High
Case
I 1·1 P A C T
0.
0.
0.
0.
8.937
10.148
74.238
106.301
88.773
78.176
66.945
59. 117
57.254
54.906
53.395
51.875
50.699
49.738
48.5
47.285
45.926
0.
0.
0.
0.
30.023
39. 2 11
41.66
125.227
314.973
538.949
599.223
574.453
454.273
331.965
292.043
263.398
250.637
241.43
233.836
227. 176
219.957
Alternative
Four Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
16.555
18.375
80.426
155.145
294.602
284.207
211.484
184.105
150.043
140.957
133.172
128.602
124.547
121.488
118.293
115.297
111.82
l~ean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
17.645,
20.367
138.738
191.871
284.582
301.437
229.594
185.738
162.883
151.648
146.172
141.484
137.605
134.59
131.414
128.398
124.887
P E R C E N T A G E I1,1PACT
1980
198 1
1982
1983
~984
1985
1986 .
1981
1988
1989
1990
1991
~992
19S3
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
~999
2000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 11
0. 116
0.725
1. 034
1. 944
2.281
1. 728
1. 503
1. 173
1. 081
1.004
0.957
0.921
0.889
0.859
0.83
0:797
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.056
0.058
0.388
0.573
0.513
0. 465
0.407
0. 358
0.347
0.331
0.32
0. 309
0.3
0.292
0. 282
0.273
0:2~3
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 187
0. 223
0.218
0.675
1. 822
3.208
3.64
3. 475
2.75
2.
1. 75
1. 568
1. 481
1. 417
1.361
1 • 3_ 12
1. 258
0.
o.
0.
0.
0. 103
0. 105
0.42
0.836
1 '704
1. 692
1. 285
1 • 1 14
0.908
0.849
0.798
0. 765
0. 736
0.713
0.689
0.666
0.639
SC:URC ~: !·~AP S t ate\·ti de 1-'1ode 1 Projections.
209
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 11
0. 116
0.·725
1. 034
1. 646
1. 794
1. 395
1.124
0.986
0.913
0.876
0.8'42
0.813
0. 79
0.765
.... 0.742 ..
0.714
Alternative
Four Offshore~~
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
16.555
18.375
80.426
155. 145
258.582
232.074
178.684
145.488
128.234
120.504
116.117
112.477
109.668
107.375
104.852
102.437
99.656
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 103
0. 105
0.42
0.836
1.495
1. 381
1.085
0.88
0.776
0.726
0.696
0.669
0.648
0.63
0.61
0.592
0.57
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
r-
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
,-
L
on real personal income is $343 million, or 3.7 percent, in 1989. The
maximum impact on real personal income is $554 million, or 6.1 per-
cent, in 1991. The maximum mean case impact on real per capita
personal income is $383, or 2.3 percent, in 1989; and the maximum high
case impact is $599, or 3.6 percent, in 1990.
Table 103 presents projected impacts on real wages and salaries. For
the mean case, the-maximum projected impact is $289 million, or 4.0
percent, in 1989. For the high case, the maximum projected impact is
$462 million, or 6.3 percent, in 1991.
Tables 104-106 present projected impacts on real wage rates in the
basic sector, services, and government. The wage rate impacts are
highest in the basic sector, with a maximum mean case increase of
$1,174 (4.1 percent) in 1989, and a maximum high case increase of
$1,819 (6.5 percent) in 1990. In contrast, the maximum mean case
impact upon service sector wages is only $168 (0.8 percent) in 1989;
while the maximum high case impact upon service sector wages is $316
(1. 5 percent) in 1990. Impacts on government wages are very small;
the maximum high case impact is less than 0.4 percent.
As shown in Table 107, the projected impacts on the Alaska rate of
inflation are insignificant.
210
t·~ean
Year Case
A 8 s 0 L u T E
1980 o.
1981 0.
1982 o.
1983 0.
1984 9.855
1985 14.75
1986 94.004
1987 140.938
1988 :1.43.672
1989 288.582
1990 237.273
199 1 222. 168
1992 192.672
1993 187.832
1994 184.984
1995 186.453
1996 189.023
1~97 192.461
1998 196.254
1999 200.309
2000 204.453
p E R c E N T ,,
n
1980 0.
1981 0.
1982 0.
1983 0.
1984 0. 166
1985 0.214
1986 1. 162
1987 1. 752
1988 3.259
1989 3.959
1990 3.309
~991 3.042
1992 2.602
1'393 2.482
1994 2.39
1995 2.348
~996 2.318
~997 2.299
1998 2.281
1993 2.265
20DO----------2-.-2-·U
TABLE 103. PROJECTED H1PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATEWIDE TOTAL REAL WAGES AND SALARIES
(t~illions of 1981 Dollars)
Low High Alternative !•lean Offshore
Case Case Four Case· Loading Case
I 1•1 p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
4.984 16.715 9.09 9.855
7.859 26.305 13. 105 14.75
50.496 30.84 54.996 94.004
78.516 90. 105 111.57 140.988
69.629 219.668 210.551 210.41
64.34 382.082 216.086 233.531
59.023 448.969 177.965 195.492
55.691 462.332 166.215 172. 113
56.34 405.027 148.738 160.254
56.551 333.566 146.496 156.605
57.547 313.809 145.633 157.277
58.684 301.969 147. 176 159.281
59.902 301.855 149.578 162.211
61.098 304.594 152.359 165.422
62.379 309.418 155.441 168.934
63.715 315.113 158.684 172.602
65.07 321. 184 162. 176.332
G E I 1•1 p A c T
o. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. o.
0. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o. 0.
0.084 0.282 0. 153 0.166
0. 114 0.381 0.19 0.214
0.624 0.381 0.68 1.162
0.976 1 . 1 2 1. 387 1. 752
0.931 2.938 2.816 2.814
0.883 5.241 2.964 3.204
0.823 6.262 2.482 2.727
0. 763 6.33 2.276 2.357
o. 761 5.47 2.009 2. 164
0.747 4.408 1. 936 2.069
0.744 4.055 1.882 2.032
0.739 3.803 1. 854 2.006
0.735 3.702 1. 835 1. 99
0. 73 3.639 1.82 1. 976
0.725 3.596 1.806 1. 963
o. 72 3.563 1.794 1. 951
0.713 3.521 1. 776 1. 933
s:·~·~CE: i·:r~.P Stc.tewide l·iodel Projections.
211
[
[
Alternative
[
Four Offshore ,;.:-;-.
Loading Case [
0. [
0.
0.
0.
9.09
13. 105
[
54.996
111.57
187.5
181.012 [
152.324
134.566
125.535
123.371 [
124.059
125.824
128. 145
130.684
133. 43·7
[
136.316
139.266 [
[
o.
0.
o.
0.
0.'153
[
0. 19
0.68
1. 387
2.508 [
2. 483
2. 125
1. 842
1. 695 [
1. 63
1. 603
1. 585
1. 572
1. 561 L
1.551
1. 541
1. 527 [_
[
\1 ~ -, ..
I"::'C.l
•. " 5 0 h !:.
1930
1981
1'::32
1~83
1S3t.
1-:?SS
1~36
[ 1937
1938
1=39
1S~O
[ 19'31
1992
j':>OC:
1994
[ 1995
1995
1S97
1S9S
1S99
[· 2COO
p E R c
1980
[
1981
1982
jOO--~-'
19Et.
1905
1S86
1?87
~ sc. 3
1939
[ ~9~·')
~99~
.. ,?~2
1CC':I
[
1 ?~.~
i9?S
1-?~S
~;;:·
:-se
L ?~3
OC:C>
L -,... . ~ ...... :.: _· ...:~ : .. 1:.:
~·:ean
C<:se
L u .,.. E I
0.
0.
0.
o.
50.5/8
45.414
322. 191
475.9E9
1013.35
1173.7
"704.297
546.926
399.422
392.039
392.852
394.613
337.625
401.941
404.418
t.07.t.49
405.488
c 11 T ,,
;._ !' '""'
o.
0.
0.
0.
o. 175
0. ~34
0.842
1.356
3.416
4. 14
2.526
1 . 9 13
1. 395
1. 357
1 :::.:~
~ . :;.~ 9
1.353
1.362
1.353
1. 368
1. 353
TABLE 104. PROJECTED HlPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
G
STATEWIDE REAL WAGE RATE IN BASIC SECTOR
(1981 Dollars)
Low· High Alternative 1·1ean Offshore
Case Case Four Case Loading Case
I ~~ p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
23.035 91.59 5L02 50.578
25.371 101.531 47.113 45.414
1/0.555 84.863 184.078 322.191
260.285 317.078 394.84 475.969
225.672 1021.39 911.223 822.609
199.66 1802.45 854.82 864.066
161. 195 1819.28 496.422 561.648
125.852 1499.51 393.422 406.512
125.391 1001.81 311.777 393.98
124.941 642.059 310.977 395.398
126.812 603.422 313.18 403.914
127.059 591.496 314.391 404.98
127.871 600.395 316.715 407.422
129.086 608. 176 320.082 411. 25
129.812 612.43 321. 91 413.238
130.73 617.453 324.281 415.918
130. 133 614.687 322.695 413.73
E I 1·1 p A c T
o. o. o. o.
0. 0. 0. o.
0. 0. o. o.
o. 0. 0. o. o. 177 0.08 0.318 o. 175
0.075 0.299 0. 139 o. 134
0. 446 0.222 o. 481 0.842
0.742 0.903 1. 125 1. 356
0. 761 3.443 3.071 2. 773
o. 704 S.358 3.015 3.048
0.578 ::.526 1. 7 81 2.015
0.44 ::0.246 1. 376 1 .422
0.-<33 ~s9 1.089 1. 376 .. 1.076 0. 432 2.222 1. 369
0.436 2.077 1 .078 1. 39
o. 434 2.022 1 .075 1. 384
0.435 2.042 1 .077 1. 386
0.438 2.061 1 .085 1. 394
0.438 2.065 1 .085 1. 393
0.439 2.073 1.089 1. 397
0. 434 2.051 1 .076 1. 38
--------------------
•·:_p St.::~e.-:ide t.';odel Projections.
212
Alternative
Four Offsho1~e
Loc:dina Case
0.
0.
0.
o.
51.02
47. 113
1811.078
3911.84
777.781
655.262
419.711
316.6i18
310.895
3111.93
32 1. 359
322.098
3211.016
327.
328.<188
330.645
328.793
0.
o.
o.
0.
0.177
o. 139
0.1181
1. 125
2.622
2. 3 11
I. 506
1. 108
1.086
1.09
1. 106
1. 101
1. 102
1. 108
1. 107
1 . 11
1.097
-------
Year
l·~ean
c~se
A B S 0 L U T E
1980 o.
1981 0.
1982 0.
4QC":
,_~,.~ ..... 0.
19E.! 12. 5
~985 14.316
1'2E'.S 84.629
1987 83.086
~?SB 163.305
'l92~ ~68.137
199') 99. 19 1
.tOC<~
'--I
82. 156
1992 34.82
~993 29. 176
1994 20.27
1995 20.496
1995 20.332
1997 20.363
1998 20.207
1999 20.082
2000 19.941
..... t:" R c E t~ T A r' '-
1980 0.
19S1 c.
19E2 0.
~983 0.
~9C4 0.059
.. ,S25 0.064
192-5 0.36
19:07 0.367
~958 0.755
~?.E?. 0.789
~ 9:':·.) 0.02
~~9~ 0.39
1?S:2 o. 165
~9'23 o. 137
~2S:j 0.095
1'395 0.096
~925 0.095
o(QC,-t--I 0.094
~~=s 0.093
19'?9 0.092
20CC> 0.091
TABLE 105. PROJECTED Il,iPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
G
STATEWIDE REAL WAGE RATE IN SERVICES SECTOR
(1981 Dollars)
Low
Case
High
Case
A 1 tel' native
Four Case
I 1·'1 P A C T
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0.
4.285 24.031 11 . 086
4.777 30.062 11.906
37.918 29.77 49.227
37. 7 11 72.254 74.617
24. 566 176.352 143.363
18.902 298.141 116. 102
12.012 316.031 72. 184
7. 113 286.937 53.363
7.559 191.762 24.074
5.441 91. 129 20.809
5.539 64.801 15.746
5.535 44.328 15.902
5.582 44.402 15.844
5.617 43.437 15.844
5.621 43.125 15.781
5.562 42.715 15.668
5.543 42.375 15.562
E I f·1 p A c T
0. o. 0. 0. o. 0.
0. o. o.
0. 0. 0.
0.02 0. 114 0.052
0.021 0. 134 0.053
0. 161 0. 127 0.209 0. 167 0.319 0.33 0. 114 0.815 0.663
0.089 1. 399 0.545
0.057 1. 503 0.343
0.034 1. 361 0.253
0.036 0.908 o. 114
0.026 0.429 0.098
0.026 0.304 0.074
0.026 o. 207 0.074
0.026 0. 207 0.074
0.026 0.201 0.073
0.026 0. 199 0.073
0.026 o. 196 0.072
0.025 0. 194 0.071
l~ean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
12.5
14.316
84.629
83.086
122.441
106.73
51 . 4 65
19. 18
1. 871
-5.352
-6.035
-6.051
-5.828
-5.695
-5.582
-5.539
-5.437
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.059
0.064
0.36
0.367
0. 566
0.501
0.·245
0.091
0.009
-0.025
-0.028
-o. 028
-0.027
-0.026
-0.026
-0.025
-0.025
s:_:;c~: ":.n St2"'c£,·Oide t'1odel Projections.
213
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
11 . 086
11 . 906
49.227
74.617
114.867
77.
42. 145
12.773
0. 211
-4.078
-4.699
-4.691
-4.535
-4.363
-4.289
-4.242
-4. 176
0.
0.
. 0.
0.
0.052
0.053
0.209
0.33
0.531
0.361
0.2
0.061
0.001
-0.019
-0.022
-0.022
-0.021
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.019
.;:;-
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
r~
L
.....,
TABLE 106. PROJECTED H'IPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
r STATnJIDE REAL \•JAGE RATE IN GOVERNtvJENT SECTOR
(1981 Dollars)
I L ____ ~
[
!·~ean LO\o/· High Alternative l•1ean Offshore
[ ·Yea':'"' C.:ise Case Case Four Case Loading Case
A B s 0 L II T J: I 1•1 p A c T v L
[ 1920 0. o. o. o. 0.
1921 0. 0. 0. o. 0.
~9E2 0. 0. o. o. 0.
[ ~9C3 o. 0. 0. o. 0.
~9S4 2.766 1 . 129 5. 129 2.648 2.766
·, 925 3.227 1. 652 6.473 2.984 3.227
!9=6 \8.176 9.348 5.754 10.535 18. 176
[ ~S37 26.172 13.879 17.629 21.449 26.172
~9ES 50.GG4 10.621 52.082 45.113 40.281
".9::9 56.719 9.344 89.148 40. 117 40.445
·sso 34.332 7. 91 88.742 24.027 25.859
1931 30.527 6.789 73.449 22. 148 21.496 [ ~992 19.875 6.387 48.453 15.625 16.949
.. :993 19.65 6.203 29.34 15.418 16.434
1994 18.891 6. 117 28.75 14.891 15.992
19=5 13.473 5.934 27.457 14.52 15.531
[ 1996 17.816 5.746 26.746 14.07 15.043
1997 17. 2" 2 5.48 25.758 13.562 14.453
1998 16.566 5.258 24.789 .13.02 13.871
~999 15.84 5.035 23.719 12.461 13.227
[ 2000 14.988 4.742 22.457 11.797 12.48
p ,... R c E N T
,,
G E I ~~ p A c T [ c. ,...
19SO 0. 0. o. o. 0.
[ 1981 0. 0. o. 0. 0.
1962 o. 0. o. o. 0.
~922 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
~ ssj_ 0.012 0.005 0.022 0. 011. 0.012
1SS5 0.013 0.007 0.027 0.012 0.013
L 19E5 0.073 0.037 0.023 0.042 0.073
~PE7 0. 103 0.055 0.069 0.084 0 .. 103
19.:.5 0. 198 0.041 0.203 0. 176 0. 157
19E9 0.218 0.036 0.343 0. 154 0. 156
[ ~9SJ o. 13 0.03 0.337 0.091 0.098
.t c.c .. 0. 114 0.025 0.275 0.083 0.081
'--I 0.058 0.063 ~9':2 0.073 0.024 0. 179
~993 0.071 0.023 0. 107 0.056 0.06
[ 1 9'?4 0.068 0.022 o. 103 0.053 0.057
1995 0.065 0.021 0.097 0.051 0.055
1996 0.062 ·o.o2 0.093 0.049 0.052
1997 0.059 0.019 0.088 0.046 0.049
[ ,. ~~~~ 0.056 0.018 0.083 0.044 0.047
0.052 0.017 0.078 0.041 . 0.044
---------~(';~()_ .. -0 .. 0.~9· 0.015 0.073 0.038 0.041
[
SCG?CE: t·:.t.P Stc.te\·iide t·iodel Projections.
r·
L 214
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.
o.
o.
0.
2.648
2.984
10.535
21.449
37.8G3
29.699
19.207
16.898
13.234
12.895
12.551
12.207
11.766
11.297
10.836
10.328
9.75
0.
o.
0.
0.
o. 011
0.012
0.042
0.084
0. 148
0. 114
0.073
0.063
0.049
0.047
0.045
0.043
0.041
0.039
0.036
0.034
0.032
!•'lean
Year Case
A B S 0 L U T E
1980 0.
1981 0.
1982 0.
1983 0.
1984 0.
i985 0.
1926 0.
1987 0.
1928 0.
1989 0.001
1990 0.
1991 0.
1992 0.
1993 0.
1994 0.
1995 0.
1996 0.
1997 0.
1998 0.
1999 0.
2000 0.
p E R c E N T ,,
n
1980 0.
1981 0.
1982 o.
1983 0.
1984 0.
1985 0.028
1'386 0.033
1957 0.209
1 c '"'' ~v-0.503
1989 0.873
1990 0. 432
1991 0. 306
1992 0. 178
1993 0.089
1994 0.056
1995 0.04
199€ 0.029
~997 0.019
1998 0.018
"; '299 0.016
2000 0.02
TABLE l 07 . PROJECTED If.1PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
ALASKA RATE OF INFLATION
Low High Alternative l~ean Offshore
Case Case Four Case Loading Case
I ~~ p A C T
-0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
-0. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0.001 0. 0.
0. 0.001 0. 0.
o. 0.001 0. 0.
-0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0.
o. o. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o. 0.
G E I ~~ p A c T
o. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. o. 0.043 0. 011 0. -0.024 0. 111 0.041 0.028 0.015 0.075 0.053 0.083 0.013 0.087 0. 14 0.209 0.068 0.64 0.44 0.304 0. 127 1. 414 0.667 0.446 0. 116 1.366 0.23 0.256 0.057 1 . 118 0. 196 0. 147 0.014 0.717 0. 115 0.13
-0.003 0.454 0.057 0.074
0.005 0. 24 1 0.039 0.032 0.001 o. 198 0.024 0.021 0.004 o. 107 0.02 0.017 0.006 0.065 0.013 0.012 0.004 0.044 0.013 0. 011
0.005 0.035 0.012 0.01
0.003 0.04 0.016 0.015
0.005
S:J::CE: I·'),P Stc.te\·tide l·'iodel Projections.
215
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
o.
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
o.
0."011
0.041
0.053
o. 14
0.301
0.389
0. 151
0. 124
0. 104
0.054
0.023
0.016
0.013
0.01
0.009
0.009
0.012
~
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
f'
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[ _____ ~
[
GOVERNMENT REVENUES, EXPENDITURES, AND THE
PERMANENT FUND BALANCE
As shown in Table 108, the OCS cases have relatively little impact
upon state revenues. The maximum mean case impact is $34 million (0.4
percent); the maximum high case impact is $49 million (0.6 percent);
both occur in 1991. As shown in Table 109, year 2000 state government
interest earnings decline by $22 million (1.0 percent) in the mean
case and by $35 mi 11 ion (1. 8 percent) in the high case. These de-
clines reflect the impacts of increased government expenditures upon
the permanent fund balance. As shown in Table 110, total state
government expenditures in the year 2000 increase by $74 million (1.2
percent) in the mean case and $106 million (1.7 percent) in the high
case, as a result of the higher state population. However, as shown
in Table 111, state government per capita expenditures decline
slightly, with the maximum high case decline of $44 (0.5 percent) in
2000.
As shown in Table 112, the decrease in the year 2000 permanent fund
ba 1 ance is $340 mi 11 ion (1. 3 percent) for the mean case, and $555
million (1.3 percent) for the high case. On a per capita basis, the
declines are more significant. As shown in Table 113, the year 2000
decrease is $1,079 per person (2. 7 percent) for the mean case and
$1,704 per person (4.2 percent) for the high case.
216
Yec.r
!~ 8 s 0 L ,..,
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1937
1988
1SS9
"0("'1""\ , .... :;v
I ?.9 1
1992
1993
1994.~
1995
1996
1997
19S8
1999
2000
p E ?-c c
L
1980
1931
1932
1~;83
1984
1985
1986
1987
1938
1989
1990
1991
j992
E?·?3
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
~999
2GGG
!<ec.n
Case
u T E
c.
o.
0.
0.
0.613
0.891
4. 117
7. 137
10.238
28.637
31. 4 53
34. 191
29.914
25.895
23.395
21.488
19.641
17.309
15.238
13. 14 1
10.945
N T A
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.01
0.013
0.055
0.089
0. 129
0.339
0.388
0. 438
0.397
0.337
0. 317
0.307
0.294
0. 262
0. 24
0.2~6
TABLE 108. PROJECTED IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
G
TOTAL STATE GENERAL FUND REVENUES
(l~illions of 1981 Dollars)
Low
Case
I l·'t p
0.
0.
0.
0.
0. 504
0.645
2.621
4.715
4.32
8.25
9.393
8.551
7.953
7.203
6.602
6.004
5.359
4.613
3.875
3. 117
2.309
E I
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.009
0.01
0.035
0.059
0.055
0.098
0. 116
0.11
o. 105
0.094
0.089
0.036
0.08
0.07
0.061
0.051
A
,,1
High
Case
c T
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.699
0.809
0.715
3. 113
6.516
7.004
41. 883
48.937
48.266
38.098
31.895
27.535
24. 1 17
20. 191
17.219
14.375
11.441
p A c T
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.012
0.012
0.01
0.039
0.082
0.083
0.516
0.628
0.64
0. 496
0. 431
0.393
0.361
0. 306
0. 271
0.237
Alternative
Four Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.5
0.621
2.305
5.219
27.898
31.801
35.41
32.258
29.156
26.289
24.492
23.07
21.625
19.805
18. 164
16.492
14.727
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.009
0.009
0.031
0.065
0.353
0.376
0. 437
0.414
0.387
0.343
0.331
0.329
0.323
0.3
0.286
0.271
l~ean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.613
0.891
4. 117
7. 137
10.074
9.707
6.371
2.477
-1.25
-4.449
-6.422
-8.016
-9.664
-11 . 664
-13.527
-15.44 1
-17.469
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.01
0.013
0.055
0.()89
0. 127
0. 115
0.079
0.032
-0.017
-0.058
-0.087
-0. 114
-0. 144
-o. 177
-0.213
-0.254
0~189--0-.-04 Q-,-1-SS 0.254 -0.302
5CLiRCE: ~·~-'\P Stc.t.e\·iide !·~odel Projections.
217
A lte rnat i ve
Four Offshore ,,
Loading Case
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.5
0.621
2.305
5.219
8.555
7.488
4.855
1. 738
-1. 242
-3.691
-5. 104
-6.41
-7.687
-9.246
-10.695
-12. 195
-13.773
o.
0.
0.
0.
0.009
0.009
0.031
0.065
0. 108
0.089
0.06
0.022
-0.016
-0.048
-0.07
-0.091
-0. 115
-0. 14
-0. 168
-0.201
-0.238
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
T?.BLE 109. PROJECTED H1PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
STATE GOVERNMENT INTEREST EARNINGS
(l"i 11 ions of 1981 Do 11 ars)
l·~ean Low· High Alternative l~ean Offshol~e
Year Case Case Case Four Case Loading Case
A 8 s 0 L u T E I 11 p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1980 0. o.-0. 0. 0. 198 1 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1982 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.005 1933 0. 0.011 -0.02 -0.077 -0.083 1934 -0.077 -0.026 -0. 19 -0.242 -0. 211 1985 -0.242 -0.084 -0.431 -1.027 -0.695 1986 -1. 027 -0.463 -0.746 -2.427 -1.98 1987 -2.617 - 1 . 192 -2.091 -4.837 -3. 199 1988 -5.731 - 1 . 993 -5.488 -7.494 -3.951 1<.?39 -7.6€5 -2.407 -10.57 -10.083 -4.425 1990 -9.129 -2.671 -13.956 -12.729 -4.99 1991 -10.231 -2.96 -16.773 -15.04 -5.415 1992 -1 1 . 109 -3.306 -19.103 -17.357 19'33 -12.129 -21.118 -6.012 -3.708 -6.737 -19.722 1994 -13.276 -4. 182 -23.242 -22. 147 -7.605 1995 -14.573 -4.723 -25.333 -24.652 -8.624 1996 -15.034 -5.323 -27.567 -27.269 1cc--17.719 -30.074 -9.83 --I -5.99 -29.985 -11.202 1998 -19.596 -6.719 -32.827 -32.822 -12.749 1999 -21.68 -7.517 -35.851 2000
P E R C E N T A G E I H P A C T
1950 0.
~931 0.
1982 0.
1983 0.
1984 0.
1985 -0.011
1936 -0.028
1987 -0.098
1'?3E -0.21
4 COQ -0.406
I -._,--0.478 19?.0
E:S ~ -0.521
-<oc .... -0.544 I-·-~ -0.558 ~993
199.G -0.581
1995 -o.6n
o4Ca;:; -0.67 I-_.-.....
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. o.
0.002 -0.004 -0.001 0.
-0.004 -0.028 -0.012 -0.011
-0.01 -0.05 -0.025 -0.028
-0.044 -0.071 -0.066 -0 . .098
-0.095 -0.168 -0. 159 -0.194
-0. 1 4 1 -0.389 -0.227 -0.343
-0. 15 -0.659 -0.246 -0.467
-0. 152 -0.792 -0.251 -0.572
-0. 157 -0.888 -0.264 -0.674
-0. 166 -0.96 -0.272 -0.756
-0.178 -1.012 -0.288 -0.832
-0. 194 - 1 . 08 1 -0.313 -0.917
-0.217 -1. 165 -0.35 -1.019
-0.246 -1.274 -0.399 - 1 . 139
-0.28 -1. 407 -0.46 -1. 275
-.o. 322 -1.574 -0.537 -1.437
-~-~-o_. 3 74 -1. 7 86 -0.635 -1.635
-o,,. 0 ,,,,., OMO,,, ••• ,,, --·-__ , ~-~ -~ .. -~-~---· .. "" ·--·--~-~-~-··=· ·---·· ···--
SC~C(Cf: ::..:,;) .5tc:t::···:~de :/odel Projections.
218
Alternative
Four Offshore ,:J.
Loadinq Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.005
-0.083
-0. 211
-0.695
- 1 . 84 7
-3.938
-5.949
-8.002
-10.08
-11.879
-13.688
-15.543
-17.446
-19.408
-21.458
-23.586-
-25.806
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.001
-0.012
-0.025
-0.066
-0. 1<:8
-0.279
-0.371
-0.<:54
-0.534
-0.597
-0.656
-0.723
-0.802
-0.897
-1.004
- 1 . 13 1
-1.286 ·-·--~------------
l·~ean
Year Case
A 8 s 0 L u T E
1980 0.
1981 0.
1982 0.
1983 0.
~92.4 1. 726
1985 2.848
1986 15.23
~S3? 28. 148
1988 51.535
~coo t _.._..-63.536
1:?90 63.824
199~ 63.836
1992 57.587
1~C'":l 57.703
1~94 58.559
1995 60.434
1996 62.766
19.97 65.484
1998 68.301
1'?93 71.293
20CO 74.242
p E R c E 'I T A ; ~
1980 o.
1381 0.
1982 o.
'
'a983 0.
1984 0.046
--1985 0.072
1906 0.349
1987 0.575
~938 1 . 0 ~ 4
<~ccn I-'--1. 263
4C01)
I -·cV 1. 28
"n""""' I-:::: l 1. 285
1992 1. '62
~9?3 1 . 133
'i9?t 1. 127
19~5 1.132
~S?S 1. 14
1997 1. 154
"'C~"" ... 1. 167 I --~-6
19?9 1. 181
20~:00 1. 192
Tf:.BLE 110. PROJECTED H1PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN. SHELF SALE
G
Low
TOTAL STATE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
(Millions of 1981 Dollars)
High Alternative l·1ean Offsho1·e
Case Case Four Case Loading Case
I !·1 p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. o.
0. 0. 0. 0.
1. 029 2.642 1:491 1.726
1. 607 4.275 2.331 2.848
8.535 5.367 9.02 15.23
16.254 16.758 21. 391 28. 148
17.801 41.449 43.336 47.035
17.703 71.691 48.609 56.203
17.738 92.656 49. 102 55.824
17.801 102.625 48.898 55.09
~ 3. 168 102.277 44.949 49.512
18.762 92.691 45.324 49.496
19.605 90.422 46.395 50.859
20.496 89.484 48.027 52.75
21.406 91.434 50.07 55.062
22.316 94.484 52.23 57.461
23.301 98.262 54.52 60.004
24.332 102.426 56.934 62.668
25.348 106.613 59.309 65.309
E I !·1 p A c T
0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0.027 0. 0.04 0.046
0.04 o:o1 0.059 0.072
0. 196 0.108 0.2.07 0.349
0.332 0.123 0.437 0.575
0.35 0.342 0.853 0.925
0.352 0.816 0.966 1. 117
0.356 1. 425 0.985 1 . 12.
0.358 1.859 0.984 1.109
0.366 2.066 0.905 0.997
0.37 2.06 0.895 0.977
0.377 1. 83. 0.893 0.979
0.334 1. 74 0.899 0.988
0.389 1. 676 0.91 1.
0.393 1. 661 0.92 1.013
0.393 1. 665 0.932 1.026
0.403 1. 679 0.943 1. 038
0. 407 1. 697 0.952 1.048
1. 711
SOL!RC::: ~-'.:i.? SL:tei·.'i de !·lode 1 Pt·oject ions.
219
[
Alternative
[
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
1. 491
2.331 [
9.02
21.391
40.246
43.887 [
43.836
43.074
38.512
38.625
39.777
[
41.328
43.109
44.973
46.961 [
49.039
51.109
[
o. [
o. o. o.
0.04 [
0.059
0.207 o. 437 o. 792
0.872
[
0.879
0.867
0. 776
o. 763 [
0. 765 o. 774
0. 783
0. 792 [
0.803
0.812 o. 82 [
l
L
L .. -
l
[
[
[
TABLE 1-l 1. PROJECTED HiPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
PER CAPITA STATE EXPENDITURES (1981 Dollars)
Year
1980
1981
~922
1983
1984
1985
1SE:5
1'3E7
1923
198'3
1990
1991
~992
1993
1994
1995
~996
19~i
1SSS
~9E9
2000
l·:ean
Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.465
-0.387
-2.344
-5.285
-~O.G05
-~6.832
-14.383
-13.082
-17.344
-17.633
-18.035
-18.238
-18.645
-18.91
-19.207
-19.492
-19.793
Low
Case
High
Case
I f•l P A C T
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0. 184
0.023
-0.816
-2.086
-3. 129
-3.422
-3.082
-2.664
-2.801
-2.828
-2.844
-2.789
-2.832
-2.961
-3.
-3.059
-3. 121
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.898
-1.371
-1.84
-3.84
-10.652
-22.094
-31.734
-38.273
-36.645
-38.574
-39.809
-40.914
-41.699
-42.504
-43.16
-43.828
-44.473
? E R C E N T k G E I 1·1 P A C T
Alternative
Four Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.48
-0.449
-1.516
-4.086
-8.953
-13.32
-10.695
-9.574
-12.703
-12.891
-13.102
-13.34
-13.469
-13.754
-13.969
-14.172
-14.398
1980 o. 0 · 0. 0.
1981 o. o. 0. 0.
19E2 O. O. 0. 0.
1'?83 o. 0 · 0. 0.
1984 -o.oo6 -o.oo 2 -0.011 -0.006
1985 -o.oo5 0 · -0.017 -0.006
1986 -0 ·028 -o.o 1 -0.022 -0.018
195' -0.058 -0.023 -0.042 -0.045
19es -o. 113 -0 ·033 -o. 113 -0.095
1?29 -o. 182 -0 ·037 -0.239 -0.144
19?0 -0 ·157 -0 ·034 -0.347 -0.117
·i991 -o. 146 -o.o 3 -0.426 -0.101
1992 -Q.lSG -0-032 -0.414 -0.143
1993 -o. 198 -0 ·032 -0.434 -0.145
t·lean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.465
-0.387
-2.344
-5.285
-8.879
-12.289
-9.805
-5. 195
-11.
-11.254
-11.461
-11.633
-11.727
-12.004
-12. 168
-12.355
-12.539
Alternative
Four Offshore . ..._
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.48
-0.449
-1.516
-4.086
-7.621
-10.156
-7.703
-4. 18
-8.996
-9.203
-9.332
-9.391
-9.516
-9.754
-9.898
-10.055
-10.215
0. 0.
0. 0.
0. 0.
0. 0.
-0.006 -0.006
-0.005 -0.006
-0.028 -0.018
-o·.o58 -0.045
-0.094 -0.081
-0.133 -0.11
-0. 107 -0.084
-0.058 -0.047
-0.124 -0.102
-o. 121 -o. 104 -0.201 0 032
[
1994 -n 201 -· -0.444 -b. 146
1995 -· -0 ·031 -0.452 -0.147
1996 -o. 203 -o. 031 -o. 455 -o. 147
-o. 128 -o. 104
-0.128 -0.104
-0.128 -0.104
1997 -o. 20 : -0 ·032 -0.458 -0.148 ·~998 -~-~O::> -o.o~2 -0.46 -0.149
[ ___________ ;1;~ ~~----~~:~~~L __ ·~=g:g~; ___ =g_:_~-~~ ____ _:_g_:_~;._9
__
-o. 129 -o. 105
-o. 13 -o. 105
-o. 13 -o. 106
~o_.i3_j _______ -o ___ 1Q6---~---~--~-~
l ·.:.,... : .... =.
-•_. ... ·--0 •• . .:.,? Stc.t.t:.·:ide i·~odel Projections.
220
Y Eel~
l~ 8 s 0
1980
1981
1982
1933
1984
1985
1986
1~87
~988
1989
1990
1991
1992
19S3
1 cc .. . __ ...
•oac: , __ ._:
1996
1997
1998
1'999
2000
D t: R c I
1980
198 1
~?82
4QQ"'j
i -"-' .....
i?E-1
1?25
~,....,...-
I :iCO
~387
1933
·.~e.g
1990
~ g·; i
~~92
i';93
1994
1995
~99S
~~97
~=:'?5
•ace 1 -~'-....
20~0
r-~ean
Cc.se
L u T E
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.233
-2.::22
-~2.121
-30.327
-68.094
-W1.074
-124.2~1
-1~ 1. 801
-155.1'.:·8
-170.1::6
-~87.0~6
-2C5.8C9
-226.9E9
-251.129
-278.102
-307.8L4
-3<~0.391
E If ' .~ ~ ., i
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.01
-O.C22
-0.025
-0. ~s
-0.354
-G . .!E
-0.513
-0.545
-0.565
-0.589
-o. <:::s
-0.633
-0.756
-0.247
-0.951
-1 . ~06
-~.292
T.t.BLE 112. PROJECTED Ilt,PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
ACCUMULATED PERMANENT FUND BALANCE
(Millions of 1981 Dollars)
Low. High Alternative lt,ean Offshore
Cc.se Co.se Four Case Loading Case
I 1•1 p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
o: 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
-0.262 -1. 8 16 -0.852 -0.883
-1. 094 -5.32 -2.453 -2.582
-5.836 -9.492 -8.191 -12.121
-15.301 -20.937 -22. 16 -30.387
-26.637 -56. 102 -35.031 -62.016
-33.289 -125.914 -51.566 -102.199
-37.703 -176. -58.445 -140.668
-42.164 -222.117 -67.77 -178.586
-46.918 -259.719 -74.863 -212.602
-52.762 -292.461 -83.695 -246.551
-59.477 -323.492 -94.352 -280.551
-67.18 -355.332 -106.855 -315.332
-75.828 -388.312 -121.621 -351.305
-85.336 -424.707 -138.91 -388.781
-95.801 -464.406 -158.598 -427.711
-107. 18 -507.637 -180.68 -468.172
-~19.508 -554.559 -2.05.129 -510.301
G c I 1·1 p A c T L..
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
-0.003 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01
-0.01 -0.046 -0.021 -0.022
-0.041 -0.067 -0.058 -0.085
-0.09 -0.124 -0. 131 -0. 18
-o. 138 -0.291 -0. 182 -0.322
-0. 151 -0.572 -0.234 -0.465
-0. 156 -0.726 -0. 24 1 -0.581
-0. ~ 62 -0.853 -0.26 -0.686
-0. 171 -0.945 -0.272 -0.774
-o. 183 -1.013 -0.29 -0.854
-0.2 -1.086 -0.317 -0.942
-0.223 -1. 178 -0.355 -1.046
-0.253 -1. 294 -0.405 -1.171
-0.288 -1.432 -0.468 -1. 311
-0.331 -1.605 -0.548 -1.478
-0.385 -1. 825 -0.649 -1 . 683
-8.454 -2. 105 -0.779 -1.937
~·· . .:..:: 5t~~e._.,.;de ~·~odel Projections.
221
[
r
L
[
Alternative [
Four Offshore
Loading Case ·:7'-[
o.
0.
0.
0.
-0.852
-2.453
-8.191
-22. 16
-50.055
-81.965
-111.453 [
-141.363
-167.961
-194.453
-221.082
-248.352
[
-276.535
-305.887
-336.379
-368.059 l
-401.02
[
0.
[
0.
o.
0.
-0.01 [
-0.021
-0.058
-0. 131
-0.26 [
-0.373
-0.46
-0.543 -o. 611
-0.673
[
-0.742
-0.824
-0.922
-1.032 [
-1.163
-1. 32 3
-1.522 [
[
[
[
[
E
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
c
[
r-
L
Ye2r
,, ::l s 0 1"'\ '""
1980
198 1
~952
1983
1984
1985
~S26
~987
iSS8
1989
1990
1991
1992
.JOO~ I-·-.,_..
1994
1995
~955
1937
1998
1999
2000
"' K r r -'-'
1980
19 3 1
1982
1983
1934
1955
~936
~987
~?E8
~989
~·;;:90
"i99~
1992
~9?3
1994
~995
~996
~397
~SSE.
• fSS
--2-0CG
.-,... ,.... --
..... _, .;.... 0
...... -·-· . --.
Tf.l.BLE 113. PROJECTED H1P.U.CT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
l·~ean
Case
L u T E
0.
0.
o.
0.
-11.836
-23.203
-125.523
-254.504
-521.969
-761.
-854.793
-917.828
-931.008
-365.305
-993.957
-1018.13
-10::36.52
-1055.41
-1069.21
-1077.56
-1078.59
r-N T A f' c \J
0.
o. o.
0.
-0.051
-0.099
-0. ~61
-0.808
-1. /,55
-1. 06
-1.£'25
-1. S5
-1.393
-1. 904
- 1 . 933
-1.992
-2.075
-2. 173
-2.304
-2.46~
-2.556
PER CAPITA ACCUMULATE~ PERMANENT FUND BALANCE
(1981 Dollars)
Low High Alternative l·1ean Offshore
Case Case Four Case Loading Case
I 1·1 p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
-6.262 -19.555 -10.605 -11.836
-11.652 -40.035 -20.059 -23.203
-67. -57.625 -76.801 -125.523
-139.855 -159.555 -192.203 -254.504
-185.238 -431 .. 047 -399.016 -473.574
-217.816 -891.605 -538.711 -685.898
-241.207 -1277.35 -590.574 -793.582
-257.957 -1541.35 -629.828 -862.535
-277.512 -1640.22 -641.66 -919.34
-295.457 -1629.24 -667.977 -982.363
-311.809 -1650.41 -690.754 -1042.63
-324.531 -1659.41 -709.484 -1093.82
-334.602 -1672.86 -723.434 -1136. 4
-344.125 -1691.67 -737.77 -1176.05
-351.812 -1705.35 -748.418 -1208.64
-357.699 -1710.9 -754.98 -1234.32
-361.164 -1704.95 -756.121 -1251.42
E I !,1 p A c T
0. o. 0. o.
0. o. 0. 0. o. o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
-0.032 -0. 101 -0.055 -0.061
-0.05 -0.171 -0.086 -0.099
-0.246 -0.211 -0.282 -0.461
-0.444 -0.506 -0.61 -0.808
-0.52 -1. 21 -1 . 12 -1. 329
-0.538 -2.203 -1.331 -1.695
-0.543 -2.877 -1.33 -1.787
-0.548 -3.274 -1.338 -1.832
-0.566 -3.346 -1. 309 -1.876
-0.583 -3.214 -1.318 -1. 938
-0.606 -3.209 -1.343 -2.027
-0.635 -3.247 -1.388 -2. 14
-0.67 -3.349 -1.448 -2.275
-0.71 -3.491 -1.522 -2.427
-0.758 -3.676 -1.613 -2.605
-0.817 -3.908 -1.725 -2.819
-0.889 -4.198 -1 .862 -3.081
-
222
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.
o.
0.
0.
-10.605
-20.059
-76.801
-192.203
-400.324
-543.293
-626.504
-679.766
-723.719
-774.25
-822.207
-862.625
-896.008
-927.035
-952.598
-972.609
-985.93
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.055
-0.086
-0.282
-0.61
-1. 124
-1.342
-1.411
-1.444
-1.477
-1. 527
-1.599
-1. 688
- 1 . 794
-1.913
-2.053
-2.222
-2.428
Regional Impacts: Anchorage
Table 114 presents projected impacts on Anchorage population. The
year 2000 population increases by 4,358 (1.5 percent) in the mean case
and by 6,847 (2.4 percent) in the high case.
Table 115 presents projected impacts on the Anchorage employment. In
the mean case, the maximum increase in employment is 3,167 (2.3 per-
cent) in 1990; in the high case, the maximum increase in employment is
5,594 (4.1 percent) in 1991.
Regional Impacts: Bristol Bay
Projected impacts of the North Aleutian Shelf OCS sales in Bristol
Bay, shown in Tables 116 and 117, are very small. The maximum popu-
lation increases projected for the mean and high cases, respectively,
are 26 and 38 (0. 4 percent and 0. 6 percent) in the year 2000. The
maximum employment increases projected for these two cases are 41 (0.9
percent) and 68 (1.5 percent), in 1990 and 1992, respectively. These
population and employment impacts are results of increased levels of
activity in the statewide economy, rather than direct results of OCS
activity.
223
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
r-
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
f~iecn
Ytal"' Ccse
s s 0 L u T E
1930 0.
4 00 .. l ... u I 0.
1?32 0.
~933 0.
1<.?2.-4 0. 116
~ ·~ 35 0. 181
1~ 36 1.009
~ ~ 37 1. 659
1~88 3.009
~~39 3.83
19?0 3.741
l~9~ 3.816
~?32 3.654
j9?3 3.678
~=?6 3. 71)2
1==5 3.732
~'2S5 3.878
1997 3.993
19'?3 -"!. 113
~:::;g 4.234
2GOO 4.358
Tf:.BLE 114. PROJECTED H'IPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
ANCHORAGE POPULATION
(Thousands)
Low High Alternative 1·1ean Offshore
Case Case Four Case Loading Case
I 1\1 p .A. c T
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. o .. 0.
0.064 0.187 0. 104 0. 116
0.096 0.3 0. 154 0.181
0.547 0.377 0.6 1.009
0.93 1.042 1. 281 1. 659
0.986 2.516 2.532 2.693
1. 02 4.523 2.915 3.275
1.016 5.903 2.873 3. 184
1.025 6.75 2.904 3.082
1.069 6. 742 2.828 3.032
1.094 6.278 2.866 3.036
1. 132 6. 174 2.905 3.095
1. 168 6.098 2.978 3. 175
1. 204 6. 181 3.061 3.267
1 . 24 3 6.309 3. 153 3.368
1.283 6.478 3.25 3.473
1. 322 6.658 3.347 3.578
1. 362 6.847 3.445 3.685
Alternative
Four Offshore
Locding Case
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.104 o. 154
0.6
1. 281
2.312
2.556
2.512
2.416
2.38
2.396
2.446
2.51
2.583
2.662
2.745
2.827
2. 911
? E R C E ~ T ~ G E I 1·1 P A C T
0. o.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
o. 0. o. 0. 0.057 0.051
0.057 0.032 0.092 0.051 0.086 0.073
0.086 0.0~6 0. 1~3 0.073 0.~58 0.272
0.458 0.248 0.171 0.272 0.72 0.556
0.72 0.~04 0.452 0.556 1.134 0.974
1'=8 1
1.257 0.415 1.06 1.066 1.367 1.067 ·::2~
·,::.;::; 1.599 0.426 1.888 1.217 1.328 1.048
·::-::·') 1.56 0.~24 2.~62 1.198 1.268 0.994
~,.,~ 1.57 0.422 2.778 1.195 1.233 0.968
'::?2 -1.4E5 0.435 2.741 1.15 1.214 0.958
:::::= 1.471 0.438 2.511 1.146 1.217 0.962
•-<'· 1.456 0.445 2.428 1.143 1.226 0.969 ;;~~ 1.46 0.451 2.354 1.15 1.238 0.979
•C.O;": 1.47 0.456 2.342 1.16 1.252 0.99
---1.485 0.462 2 346 1.173 1.266 1.001 '.·::? 0.~69 2:362 1.185 1.28 1.011 -'-1 . 5
r ~ ----~ ~~ 1~------__ ___'~ ~~!---~-.-~---:~~----22_._~: ~ -----~.;~;~----___ 1 ._2_9 _______ 1 . o ___ 19_ --. -----c :r:.:'J I. :::'.c:..U • •
[
l
. -.
..... .... ---.
224
Y~·=r
~I '"" s 0
~~80
1 ~s 1
~,... 0 .....
I :::04!_
1983
~~-34
1£=85
~=s6
~£'57
~c;=:e
~ ?=.9
19?0
~991
~992
1993
1994
'i995
~9?6
i9S7
~sss
~?S9
2000
,.. -c r' C l\
1980
~931
~9E2
~?23
·, 9E4
~925
'9ES
"9~7
"?EE
'?E9 .. ;:o
'?':: 1
~?~2
~ -=~ 3
~??4
'??5
"'2=6
~997
~;sc
---·-·~-~--=-: :~;:·-:
_,.--,., -.... -. -. ---' ..... -.
!·1ecn
TABLE 115. PROJECTED H'IPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
ANCHORAGE TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
(Thousands)
Low. High Alternative t·1ean Offshore
C2se Case Case Four Case Loading Case
I u T C" I t·1 p A c T L.. L..
o. ·a. o. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. o. o. o.
0. o. o. 0. ·a.
0.035 0.047 o. 137 0.075 0.085
0. 153 0.085 0.246 0. 131 o. 153
0. s •, 2 0.446 0.32 0.488 0.812
1. 359 0.792 0.854 1.06 1. 389
2.499 0.869 2.027 2.089 2.265
3. 191 0.876 3.655 2.46 2.763
3. 157 0.844 4.865 2.446 2. 705
3. 136 0.823 5.594 2.387 2.548
2.815 0.828 5.531 2.221 2.375
2.778 0.826 4.992 2. 167 2.288
2.707 0.836 4.677 2. 134 2.268
2.701 0.848 4.438 2. 137 2.278
2.717 0.862 4.375 2. 158 2.306
2.752 0.875 4.372 2. 187 2.34
2.792 0.89 4.413 2.221 2.379
2.837 0.905 4.47 2.257 2.42
2.884 0.92 4.536 2.294 2. 462
-G E I f·1 p A c T -,-,
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0.075 0.041 0. 122 0.067 0.075
0. 128 0.071 0.206 0. 11 0. 128
0.527 0.344 0. 247 0.377 0.627
1.019 0.581 0.626 0. 777 1. 019
1. EOG 0.628 1. 465 1. 51 1. 637
2.327 0.639 2.666 1.794 2.015
2.348 0.626 3.607 1. 814 2.006
2.319 0.608 4. 137 1.765 1. 884
2. 115 0.609 4.069
1. 634 1.747
2.017 0.6 3.625 1. 574 1. 662
1-937 0.598 3.347 1. 527 1. 623
1. 899 0.596 3. 121 1. 503 1. 602
1.875 0.595 3.019 1. 489 1. 591
1. 862 0.593 2.959 1.48 1. 584
1. 852 0.59 2.927 1. 473 1. 578
__ 5 ._E_~A ___ -' -_Q._58_8 -2.905 1.466 1. 573
1. 232 0.585 2.882 h450 L56-4
-~ ~egional Model Projections.
225
[
[
Alternative [
Four Offshore
Loadinq Case [
0. [
0.
0.
0.
0.075
0. 131
[
0.488
1.06
. 1. 928
2. 187
[
2. 15
2.002
1. 867
1. 807 [
1.796
1. 807
1. 83
1. 857
1. 887
[
1. 919
1. 952 [
[
0.
0.
0.
0. [
0.067
0. 11
0.377
0.777
1. 394
[
1. 595
1. 594
1. 481
1 . 37 3 [
1. 31 3
1. 285
1.271
1. 262
1. 257
[
1. 252
1. 247
1;2-4
[
l
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
r
L>
L
Year
A
1990
1~81
1982
1983
1934
"C~~ I -......, _.
1986
~SS7
1285
1S39
1S90
'oS91
1992
1S93
1994
1995
1?96
1?97
~998
1\::99
:zcoo
?
1'230
1981
~982
1983
198~
1985
1986
1':'37
1S88
1S39
1990
~ ;g 1
1992
H'93
1 =--=~
1~36
B
~
'-
"00-E----i~~~---
::·:·c
5
w
'\
l·:ean
Cc.se
0 L U T c L.
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.
-0.001
-0.002
0.
-0.001
0.001
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
0.02
0.022
0.024
0.026
c c-!I T ·\
L. ,, :""·.
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.009
-0.01
-0.036
0.
-0.019
0.024
0. 105
0. 143
0. 17
0. 193
0.224
0.254
0.285
0.316
Q ._3~§_ --
0. 374.
0. 403
TABLE 116. PROJECTED H'IPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
BRISTOL BAY POPULATION
(Thousands)
Low High Alternative 1•1ean Offshore
Case Case Four Case Loading Case
I 1·1 p A c T
o. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. 0. 0. -o: -o. -0.001 -0. -0.001 -o. -0.001 -o. .-0.002 0. -0.001 -0.001
0. -o. -0.001 -0.001 -0. 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.002 0.002 -0.004 0.002 0.006 0.002 -0.002 0.005 0.009 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.009 0.003 0.01 0.007 0.011 0.003 0.017 0.009 0.012 0.004 0.019 0.01 0.014 0.005 0.022 0.012 0.016 0.005 0.025 0.013 0.011 0.006 0.028 0.015 0.019 0.007 0.031 0.017 0.021 0.007 0.034 0.018 0.023 0.008 0.038 0.02
G c I , .. , p A c T '-
o. 0. 0. 0. o. 0. o. 0. o. 0. o. 0. o. 0.
0. 0. -0.007 -0.009 -0.005 -0.015 -0.008 -0.01 -0.006 -0.012 -0.018 -0.036 -0.022 0.006 -0.014 0. -0.006 -0.018 -0.033 -0.007 0.023 -0.051 0.029 0.031 0.033 -0.068 0.08 0.099 0.035 -0.026 0. 11 0. 147 0.043 0.059 0. 125 0. 157 0.046 0. 172 0. 144 0. 178 0.057 0.275 0. 169 0.202 0.067 0. 311 0. 194 0.229 0.077 0.36 0.218 0.254 0.087 0.404 0.243 0.28 0.096 0. 452 0.267 0.305 0. 106 0. 499 0.29 0.33 -0.~:16------Gh-S-44 ---o~ 31-3---··--·-·-------o~-354-o. 125 0.589
l sc_:_::: ".:.? ::~;ic:--,al i·iocel Projections.
[ 226
Alternative
Four Offshore ·--Loading Case
0.
0.
o.
0.
-0.
-0.
-0.001
-0.001
-0.001
0.002
0.004
0.007
0.007
0.008
0.009
0. 011
0.012
0.013
0.015
0.-016
0.017
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.007
-0.008
-0.018
-0.014
-0.026
0.031
0.075
0. 111
0. 117
o. 134
0. 154
0. 174
0. 194
0.214
0.234
0.254
---6.273
Year
P. B s 0 L
1980
1981
1982
19E3
1934
1985
1986
1937
~938
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
~ssa
~S'29
2000
p ... R c E [_
1980
1981
~932
~983
1984
1955
1986
1937
1988
1SE9
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
~997
1998
<~aco ·--.J-~:rcoo _____
Cc.se
lj T E
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.001
0.006
0.014
0.024
0.035
0.041
0. 041
0.037
0.034
0.033
0.032
0.033
0.033
O.C·34
0.03-1
0.035
u ; \ T A
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.009
0.032
0. 132
0.297
0.513
0.741
0.881
0.882
0. 791
0.733
0. 7
0.688
0.686
0.689
0.694
0.7
T.t.BLE 117. PROJECTED HiPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
BRISTOL BAY TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
(Thousands)
Low -
Case
High
Case
Alternative
Four Case
1•1ean Offshore
Loading Case
I 1·1 p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0.001 0. 0.
0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001
0.003 0.004 0.004 0.006
0.008 0.007 0.01 0.014
0.011 0.017 0.019 0.023
0.012 0.033
0.051 0.028 0.031
0. 011
0. 011 0.064 0.032 0.036
0.01
0.031 0.035
0.068 0.028 0.031
0.01 0.064
0.01
0.026 0.029
0.057 0.026 0.028
0.01 0.052 0.026 0.028
0. 011 0.051 0.026 0.029
0. 011 0.051
0. 011 0.026 0.029
0.051 0.027 0.03
0. 011 0.052 0.027 0.03
0. 011 0.053 0.028 0.031
G E I 1·1 p A c T
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0. 0. 0. 0.
0.005 0.014 0.008 0.009
0.02 0.05 0.028 0.032
0.074 0.081 0.086 0. 132
0. 17 0. 155 0.206 0.297
0. 235 0.35 0.405 O; 49
0. 245 0.695 0.6 0.671
0.23G 1. 091 0.689 0.768
0. 228 1. 383 0.673 0.756
0. 22 1. 466 0.604 0.666
0.219 1. 365 0.567 0.621
0. 22 1. 2 11 0.549 0.604
0.222 1 . 1 1 2 0.544 0.601
0.224 1. 068 0.545 0.604
0.226 1. 054 0.548 0.608
0.228 1. 053 0.552 0.614
0.231 1. 058 0.557 0.62
-0~-7-06-------'---~0--233~ -~-~-~1-.D65--~~-~--~-~0~--5Ji4-----~~-~-Q:_§_~!L ___
227
Alternative
Four Offshore __
Loading Case
0.
0.
0.
o.
0.
0.001
0.004
0.01
0.018
0.026
. 0.029
0.027
0.024
0.023
0.022
0.022
0.023
0.023
0.023
0.024
0.024
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.008
0.02!3
0.086
0. 206
0.39
0.554
0.617
0.594
0.519
0. 486
0. 474
0.473
0.476
0.479
0.483
0.488
0. 493
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
l
L
8ZZ
J
-]
]
]
]
]
]
J
J
J
]
~
J
]
J
J
[
[
[
L
L
Aleutian Islands Impacts
This section discusses impacts of the OCS cases upon the Aleutian
Islands, as projected by the SCIMP model. Pairs of tables present
absolute and procentage impacts.
EMPLOYMENT
Nonresident or enclave basic sector employment impacts are shown in
Tables 118 and 119. These represent OCS enclave employment; thus, the
figures in Table 118 reproduce the enclave employment figures of
Tables 89-94. As shown in Table 119, the maximum percentage impact
upon enclave employment is 27.6 percent for the mean case (in 1989)
and 66.1 percent for the high case (in 1990).
Tables 120 and 121 present impacts upon basic sector resident employ-
ment. The absolute impact projections presented in Table 120 are
slightly lower than the resident OCS employment shown in Tables 89-94.
This is because the SCIMP model does not treat permanent migrants as
residents in the year of migration. The maximum increases in resident
basic sector employment are 161 after 1991 for the mean case, and 314
in 1992 for the high case; or 16.6 percent in 1990 for the mean case
and 31.3 percent in 1991 for the high case.
229
TABLE 118.
'-
!•lean Low
Yea.r Case Case·
:!. ~·::=:::!. 0. ·o.
1'7'8~~ 0. 0.
·t ·;::j3 0 ' 0 •
1984 :\.80. 5L
1 ·:;· ~:::; 5 266 > 67.
17'8t .. 3 ~-9 < 93.
1 r.c•i . 7 "d I 31.1. ' 70.
1 S'::::;B 530. 1 ::-~ 9 •
1 '7'8S' 733. 120.
1990 660. :l. ~j3.
1 '7"? :i. 630. 127.
1992 463 .. 126.
1 .-o7 7' ···' 463. 126.
1 '7'"7'4 463. :1.26.
1 ~·95 463. 126.
463 ' ~-26, 17''?6 ' 1 C•<;•l
-i .1 I 463. 126.
1 s:· 7' f.! 463. 126.
1'7'9'? 463. 126.
2000 -463. 126.
PROJECTED ABSOLUTE IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BASIC SECTOR
NONRESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
Alternative
High Alternative Mean Offshore Four Offshore
Case Four Case Loading Case Loading Case
() ) 0 • o. o. o. 0 <· o. o. o. () . () ' 0 •
2f:5. ~-:3 8 • 180, 138.
3?7 > 189. ?.b6. l89,
371 •. 248. 319. 248 •.
299. ?.40. 3U .• 240.-
7 t.4. 393, 286. 260.
:\.428. 493. 263. 2jO.
:1.823. 'i6?.. 263. 2:1.0.
1f.·42. 4 4 ~-' 157. j_30.
:1.-<153. 3·.~8. :1.57. 1.30.
839. 368+ 157. 130.
839. 368. 3.57. l30.
839. 368, 157, 130,
839, ::S68. l30. l.57.; 839. 3.~.8 ( 157. 130.
839. :.68. 157 ,. l30.
839, :~68. 1.57. 130,
839. 368 (· 157. 130. ;
:'
--
230
r
c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
E
[
L
!
I"
[ '-
[
[
[
[
[
[~
[
[
[
[
r~
L
[
r~
L_..:;,
[
I L
Year
l '7'B'2
l '7'83
17'84
1 ,-, .-. C"'
..L 7 '\..• .......
1 •:::•C• L ·' ~· ._.
·1 UC•O
J. l \ .• "·'
1 '7' F.:·:;:·
1.990
199 ~-
19'7''2.
197'3:
l '7''7'4
197'5
1 '7'.9 .~
2000
TABLE 119. PROJECTED PERCENTAGE IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
t•1ean
Case
o.
0.
o.
6.6
9.4
l1.3
U .• 4
20.7
27.6
2,~. 9
21.8
:1.5.~
1 4. 4
'· ~ '6 12.7
:!.:1..9
l1. 0
10.:?.
9.~
8.7
Low
Case
() .
o.
() .
1..9
2.4
5.0
4.5
r::-r::-.J I .J
4.4
4.'2
3.9
~.7
3.5
3.0
.., 0 .:.. + \J
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BASIC SECTOR
NONRESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
High
Case
o.
o.
0.
10.5
:1.-4.0
1.:?: .:l
:!.0.9
29.9
53.8
6f,. l
56.8
47.9
2•L6
23. ~-
2:1..5
19.9
1E:.4
:1.6.9
15.7
Alternative
Four Case
o.
o.
0.
5.1
6.7
8.8
8.8
1.5.4
18 ·-6
l '~. 7
15.3
l.?.. :1.
11.5
10.8
1. 0. 1
t•1ean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
o.
0.
6.6
9.4
11. • 3
:1.1. 4
11..2
9.9
9.5
5.4
5.2
4 ·> 0
3.7
;?:.4
3.2
2.9
SOURCE: SCIMP Model Pro}eciions.
231
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
o.
().
5.1
6.7
8.8
8.8
1. 0 ~ 2
7.9
7 ·> 6
4.5
4.3
4. :1
3.8
3.6
~.3
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.4
Year
1'7'81
1.'7'f:2
1 c:;· f: 3
1 c-C• ,a -... '-·' .
:!. ~·s5
1 ·:;·e.~.
J. ·=:·~7 .I'-·' .. -
i S'E:B
1'7"8'7'
1'7. -;:·o
1 7' ·;; i
17"92
1 s:; 9::.
i•;:-·;·~
J. s-· 9 ~I
1. 1;· ·;· ·=·
i '7"7= 7
.1. =;:=~·s
1 s:-· s.: ~~
;:(J()Cj
TABLE 120. PROJECTED ABSOLUTE H1PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAK SHELF SALE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BASIC SECTOR
RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
t·1ean
Case
()
-0
0
0
•
•
•
•
() .,.
.-, C"
' ..: • ...._1
50 <·
94 •
118 •
145 •
148 •
1. 61 •
1.~ 1 •
'· .fJl •
161 •
:l. 61. +
161 t
161. •
j_ ·~·'-•
1 61 •
Low
Case·
0 •
0.
0.
0 •
0.
1 ' .. 0 •
31 •
38 <·
~c-. .:;. ,J <·
44 •
48.
53-t
53.
1:""7 ..Jv~
53.
"'"7 ·.1~·.
53 (•
53 •
53 ·>
53.
High
Case
0 •
0.
() ,
57 •
76 •
70.
·~4 •
120.
182.
272.
305 •
31.4 •
272.
'272 •
272.
272 •
.,~.,
.t •• /.,-.. ~-
27::.:: f-
272~
272.
Alternative
Four Case
o.
o.
o •
29 •
~6 •
5!: <
63.
10-<1 •
1:1 :!. <
1.22 •
124 •
l27.
127 •
127 •
1. 27 <
1..27.
12.7,
1"-..:../,
l27 •
127 •
t~ean Offshore
Loading Case
o •
0 •
0 •
35 •
48.
73.
8:';.
1 08.
119 •
U.8.
107.
l07.
107.
1.07 •
107.
l07.
107 •
107.
1 () 7 <·
107 •
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0 • o.
o.
29 •
:;.~ .
"'""7 .Jut
63 •
95 •
94 •
94~
85 •
85 •
85 •
Qt:"
\J'"' +
85 •
1""'1:"
•:1 ""'"' •
oc-u..Jt
85 •
8!5.
85 •
[
[
[
~
L
[
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
----------G--
232
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
['
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
Year
j c;·07 .. ~ ~ .•
~-S:' ·::· ~
1 ~ ';"" :;:_,
Tfl.BLE 121. PROJECTED PERCENTAGE H1PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
!•iean
Case
0.
0.
t) ·i
0 t
o,
4.0
7 -:· 5
J 7 ., J. '\.J + ~~
j 5 t ~
l '~ , .:,
14.6
12.8
1 ~-' 1.
9.6
7.0
5.0
4.2
Low
Case
() .
0.
o.
0.
o.
2.6
4.7
5.3
4.5
5. ~-
4.9
4.8
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.7
2.3
2.0
l. 7
1 • 4
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BASIC SECTOR
RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
High
Case
o.
0.
o\
10.3
1.2.9
1l..2
9 •. 6
l.6.8
31.3
28.4
21.6
l8.8
j 6. ::-!
13,9
11.8
1 0. ~-
Alternative
Four Case
0 •
0.
0 •
6. 1
l4. ,':J
l. 4 ( ~J
:1. 4 • ()
12 <· 7
U .• 5
10. 1
7.6
4 <· 7
4.0
!·'iean Offshore
Loading Case
0.
0 •
o.
6.3
8. '· 11.7
12.5
l. 5. 1
:1.3.5
1LO
9.7
8.5
7.4
t,. 4
r:-r:-...J :-•• J
4.7
4.0
3 ., :i
2 •· 8
+ -------SOURCE:--sttF,P-f~ode1 Proje-ctions. -
L
[ 233
Altern.ative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.
0.
o.
6' ~-:
0 r:-
i t ,.,} :
13.3
12.0
10.:3
8.7
7.7
6.8
5. '· 4 •. j
3.7
3 •· 1
2.7
Tables 122 and 123 present impacts on civilian government employ-
ment. All of these impacts are upon state and local government, as a
result of higher population. For the mean case, government employment
rises by a maximum of 16, or 1.1 percent, in 1993. For the high case,
government employment rises by a maximum of 49, or 3.4 percent, in
1993.
Tables 124 and 125 present impacts upon support sector employment.
For the mean case, support sector employment rises by a maximum of 46,
or 7.5 percent, in 1991. For the high case, support sector employment
rises by a maximum of 92, or 13.2 percent, in 1991.
POPULATION
Impacts upon civilian resident population are shown in Tables 126 and
127. For the mean case, population rises by a maximum o~ 173, or 2.3
percent, in 1992. For the high case, population rises by a maximum of
513, or 7.0 percent, in 1992.
Finally, Tables 128 and 129 present impacts upon total population.
This figure includes military personnel and dependents, enclave resi-
dents, and fishermen; i.e., all people physically present in the
Aleutian Islands except for offshore OCS workers. For the mean case,
total population increases by a maximum of 843, or 6.2 percent, in
1989. For the high case, total population rises by a maximum of
2,163, or 14.1 p~rcent, in 1990.
234
[
[
[
[
I'
[
r~,
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
l
------~-
L
l
[
r
[ ..
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
r~
L..
[
[
L
r -
L
Year
i S"'E3
.17'87
19f.:8
1'7'89
1 7'90
1 '7":=' 1
17·92
17·9~
.1 '7' '7' 4
197'5
1. '7'9.~.
1 '7'9?
J. s:· :;:;8
19~'9
2000
TABLE 122. PROJECTED ABSOLUTE IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
l·iean
Case
o.
o.
0.
0 +
1 +
1 •
·j . ..:. ~
'1 ,~..·. t
:1.0.
1. 5.
15.
16.
:1. !5 •
13.
1 2 •
11 •
:1. () •
9 t
8.
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
Low
Case
0.
·0. .. 1,.,1 t
0.
() .
o.
:1. •
1 •
:1. •
t •
2 ·>
2 f
2 ..
2.
2 t
2.
2.
2 ~·
2 t
2.
High
Case
0.
()+
0.
0.
:1. ~
~,
.:.. .
:1 •
4.
12.
32.,
43.
49.
42.
40.
"70 •.J • • .I t
33~
. ., Q
.: ' +
:2 5 t
Alternative. Mean Offshore
Four Case Loading Case
o.
o.
0 •
o.
l •
1 (
1 .•
2 ..
3 ·>
8.
7 <·
8.
7.
7.
.~,
6.
f.. '
6.
6,
0.
·o.
0.
0 •
1 .•
1 •
2 •
2 t
r::' d.
9.
9.
7.
7 •
\~ .
6.
C'
,J •
r::' d.
SOURCE: -SCil-'IP l·'iodel-Projections.
235
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0.
o.
0.
0.
:1. •
1 •
1 •
~,
.. · .. t
"1 ,_. )
4 •
4.
3 +
3.
3.
3.
3 c-
3.
3 t
3.
Year
:l '7'8 ~-
1 -;:·:?, 2
"~ r. ,-~:
l. 7 •':'.• i
t ~"? 1
199~~
1 '7":f::,
2 (:r(j ()
TABLE 123. PROJECTED PERCENTAGE I11PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
l·lean
Case
0 t
o.o
o.o
o.o
0 • t
0 t 1.
() ,, l
Ot2
0.4
0.8
l , ,_
'-t 1
1.1
,_ t 0
0.8
0 ·> 7
0+6
0.5
0.5
0.4
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
Low
Case
0.
o·. o
0 ,. 0
o.o
0.0
o.o
O.l
0. j
0 ·> l
0. ~.
0 t l.
0.1
0 t 1
o.t
0. 1
o.t
0. 1
0. '· 0 t 1
0 t '·
High
Case
0.
o.o
o.o
o.o
0.:1.
0.2
0.1.
0.1
0.3
0.9
2.4
3 t 1
3.4
2~8
2~6
·") -z
.·:.) • .. J
2 • '· 1.8
1.5
1.2
Alternative
Alternative Mean Offshore Four Offshore
Four Case Loading Case Loading Case
236
0.
().0
o.o
o.o
() • t
0 •· '-
() • 1.
0. 1
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
o.
o.o
o.o
o.o
0. t
0. 1
0.1.
0.2
0.4
0.7
0 •. ~
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3'
0,3,
0.3.
0.2
(). 2
0.
o.o
o.o
o.o
0 t 1.
0 t 1
0. 1
0. 1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
[
[
[
[
[
r··
[:
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
L
[
[
r·
L
[
[
[
[
[
L
r
L
Year
1 S'F.: :1.
l '?:32
1 ·=· 0:.1-= · .......
i '?BA
.1. 7';~5
1 7' f: f.,
1_ ~· :=:: 7
j_ ~'E::;
1 '7·E·7·
i 9·;-=o
i. 9·~· 1.
1 9 s:· ::?
1 ;:;><:;·-:
~ I '•'
1 '7'94
j_ ~ ?5
J. -~· ·;· ·==
i ·;t~·; ..
1 ·;:· ·;· :3
1 ·;·s:-7·
-~(:;f)(';
TABLE 124. PROJECTED ABSOLUTE H1PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SUPPORT SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
l·1ean
Case
0 •
0 >
0 +
1 ] + u., t
'17 ,:._.,_, •
.-.. C" .-:.d +
3C. +
·43 •
46 •
45 >
45 •
45 •
45 •
45 •
(\"'" . ' .. J •
45 +
45 •
45 •
·43 •
Low
Case
0 •
() >
0 •
5 +
(J •
10 •
~-2 )
j? -~ •
~-:!. •
13 +
1 7 •• •.1 >
l r:-,J •
l.5 <·
1 r.: ••.. J ' 15 •
'· 5 •
15 +
1 C" ... .. J )
15 +
:1.5 +
High
Case
0
()
0
] 8
·} C"
,:,,-..}
'i-: .... .,_,
2()
37
57
83
s> 1
9') ..
75
7~
75
75
75
75
75
-· C" / .. J
•·
+
+
<
•
•
>
•
•
•
'
•
•
>
+
>
+
•
+
•
Alternative
Four Case
0 •
() •
(J •
9 •
l. 2 +
1.7 •
'· 9 +
31 <
~13 +
~r:-~,.r .
"'] C" .... ·.I •
~,.
.... ., ~' +
~ ... ... ·. ~' •
•• C"
.. ")d •
~"' ~ ..... 1 +
7-=-·.: -.J •
35 •
35 •
-c-~"..I •
;· C"
•,J -.} •
!·lean Offshore
Loading Case
(> •
() ·>
(l •
1 1. +
'-6 •
~,-:
.:..-...~ •
·""\~ .. :·.\., ' 31 •
:Vt • --.._'\ .j •
?.9 ' 29 •
~,Q " ' •
29 •
29 •
29 •
;~ 9 •
;;~ 9 I
29 •
;~9 •
SOURCE: SCHiP l·iodel. Project ions.
237
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0 •
() >
0 +
9 •
L~ ;
1 7 +
:1. 9 •
28 •
?.7 +
27 • ..,-''· .;') •
'i~ .:..~ •
23 •
'17 ..:. -.J +
23 •
23 •
'i~ ,; .:> +
'17 ........... / +
23 •
-~3 •
'-
Year
1 S'81
1. ~::::!:~.
1 '?E:3
1 '?' E; .. ;
' s:·:?;5 ·-
;=;~:.~= -; _,_
1 S:' ::::7
:LS'B~~
1 .,. a·~·
17~'0
:1. ·:;:··? 1
1 99~~
19~·~
J.9'7'4
.o( .-.c·t:"
.1-; i'"'
J. '7' ·;:·.::.
._ '·:;·:; .i. .-
is-· '7' f;
i9'7'9
:?000
TABLE 125. PROJECTED PERCENTAGE IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
l·iean
Case
0 •
() •
0 •
~,
.:. . • 3
7 ,; ' '· 4 • 3
-4 • 6
6 • c:
,}
7 ' 4
7 c: • .J ..,
I ' 0
6 • 4
c. • 0
5 > r: d
5 • 0
4 ' 6
4 • 1
:1 _, 7
7 7 o.J • ~·
2 .9
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SUPPORT SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
Low
Case-_
0 •
() •
0 •
1 • 0
'-• ;~
t • 9
•"")
•'-• '"j
.•:.
2 • ~.
'· • '7'
2 • 2 .,
~. ) 1.
2+ 1.
1 • 9
'-• 8
1 • 6
l c: • ~J
1 • 3
'· _, .,
~.
1 • 1
0 > 9
High
Case
0
()
0
3
4
4
7
•,}
6
9
13
1 -•• ~'>
13
l 0
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• .
'
•
•
6
8
3
7
7
7
5
9
2
0
7 •.I
5
7
9
'"j ..
5
9
Alternative
Four Case
0 •
0 •
0 •
~. <-0 \.'
'"j .. : . • ::1
~ • 2
3 r:
' •• J
5 r: • ~· c: •. J > 6
5 0 • w
r: ..J • 7 ,,
5 I· 1
4 • 7
4 • 4
4 • 0
3 ' 6
3 • :.::;
2 > 9
2 • 6
rl
,; . • 3
l·'iean Offshore
Loading Case
o.
() •
0 •
2 • 3
3 ' 1
4 . :.::;
4 ' f.:,
c: ...! • 6
5 ' 7
c: .J • 4
4 ' 4
4 • l
7 ..., • 8
7 ,, '
c: ~·
7 ~· • 2 .,
.:. ' 9
~, 6 .:. •
2 ' 4
2. 1
:1. • 8
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0 •
0 •
0 •
:1. • 8
~~ ' 3
,:, • 2
:; > r: ,)
4 • 9
l! ' 6
4 • 3
3 '
c: d
7 ~~ • -,!1
,!1 • 1
2 ' 8 .,
,;. t 6
rl
,;, )
7 ,_,
2 • 1
,_
' 9
1 • 7
j_ • c: ~-'
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
l
.-------C-s-ouRc-E: $CH1P l·iode1 Projections.
L
238 r·
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
Year
17'8 '·
1S:'S2
1'7'[:3
17'B4
i '7't:5
1 i7'86
J. ;: ;::: 7
19t:E:
.t·:::·s·;:·
1 f7· s· 1)
1 •;: s:· :i.
1 '7' .,. 2
1 71171 3
1'?94
1S''?5
l"i '? ,~.
17'97'
1 9'7 :3
1 ·:;· C:· <:;·
' ' '
:~coo
TABLE 126. PROJECTED ABSOLUTE H'IPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CIVILIAN
RESIDENT POPULATION
l·'iean
Case
0.
o.
0 •
8.
). 0 •
2.0.
'?3.
57 • .
:1.1.0 ' 1 .:)2 •
l. ,fl 0 •
173 •
:1.:.9 •
1.40.
j 24 •
~-u. •
10:? .•
<;·~ •
90 <·
86.
Low
Case
0 <·
0 ' 0 •
3.
(! )
10 •·
J 7 ,1, .... ~
1 t. •
1 C' • . .... J ,
18.
1 0 .. ~) •
20 •·
20.
:;::l •
21 •
:? ), ' 2l • ,.,.-, ..: .. ·:.. -)
") ~,
..:...;.t
·")") . ·:,,:. )
High
Case
o.
0 • o.
15 ..
20 •
j 8.
1.5.
37.
:1.25 •
340.
-158.
513.
446 •
4'27.
405.
378.
346.
307 •
~67.
2:~5 •
Alternative
Four Case
0 I
o.
0.
8.
9.
14 •
l. 8.
"Z ' "'0 •·
48.
84 I
79.
86 •
79 •
73.
68.
.s5.
63.
,_s 1 •
60.
59.
Mean Offshore
Loading Case
0 •
0.
0 •
8.
lO •
20 •
:?. 3 •
51 •
'7'9 •
91 •
17.
69.
63 •
:)9 )
56.
1:.'7 .. J .... J +
51 •
50 •
49 •
<'19 •
[ -SOURG:E> SCll-iP~ l·'iGdel-Pr-oj ec;;-U ORS-.
L
r , 239
L
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
0 •
() ,
0 •
8.
9.
j 4 +
:1.8 •
7'1 w..:.t
41 •
40 •
35 •
-I:' ~""' .
-I:'
.!l-.Jt
:~4 •
34 •
~~5 •
-I:' "~ ... r t
:~5 ' 36.
:36.
'.
Year
.( .-. ,-, l: .L 7 f:. -;
~ ._ .. '-' ...
/ ·~-· J
,-.-, .-. .l -;.-•":.• 7
J. ·:;:· ~· t)
l ·;.· s:· 1.
.,I .:. 0 ·-:· •·· _-. .:..
i ·~· '7' 1.~
1 ·:;"7' 5
"'; C• 0:· •:J
.I. , .· '···
... C•C,C• .... · .·
TABLE 127. PROJECTED PERCENTAGE IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE
!•'lean
Case
o.o
0 (· 0
o.o
0.2
0.2
0. 4
0.4
1.0
'· , 8
'1 --~ .•.. ~
2.0
1. ,-s
1. 3
'· , 1. 0.9
0.8
0.6
Low
Case
o.o
o.o
6.0
0. 1
0. 1.
0.2
0•2
0.3
0. ;!
0.3
(),3
0.3
O,?.
0.2
(),2
0.2.
0. ;~
0.2
0.1
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CIVILIAN
RESIDENT POPULATION
High
Case
o.o
(),0
o.o
0.3
0,4
0.3
0.3
0.6
2 ., 0
r: '1 ..J•..:..
6 ·• 6
7.0
5.0
3,7
3.1
2.5
1.9
1. I 5
Alternative
Four Case
o.o
o.o
o.o
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.8
1 I 3
1. • :1.
1.2.
1.0
(),,9
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
1•1ean Offshore
Loading Case
o.o
(),0
o.o
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.9
L6
1.4
3. ' l.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0 ._t,
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
SOURCE: SCIMP Model Projections.
240
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.o
o.o
o.o
0.2
0.2
0.3
(),3
0.5
0 ., 7
0.6
0) 5 ~
0.5
0.4
0,4
0.4
0,3
0.3
0.3
0.3
n
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
r"
L
l ___ _
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
L
l
r .
L
Year
1'7'f:::1.
~. ·~: :3 '2
1 '7·e::.
1 .-. ,-, " -7 {)...,
-· '7·E5
1 '7·:::.::.
i
.L
. -;: .. -:-, ·:·I
1~:?B8
1?:;-:;·
:!. '7 '7' (.)
1 ~"? 1
1 '7"7':?
17"'1'3
:L '7' '7' 4
1 ·;·:7• 5
~ ·;-s· .::.
• c 9/" l.
< ·~·9:3
1 •:. C: C)
1 ,• ,1
::;:: () () ()
TABLE 128; PROJECTED ABSOLUTE IMPACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE _
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TOTAL POPULATION
(INCLUDING MILITARY, MILITARY DEPENDENTS,
ENCLAVE RESIDENTS, AND FISHERMEN)
t•1ean
Case
0 •
0 •
0 •
188 •
~:7t. •
339 •
334 +
co~ .J•...J I •·
843 +
1:• .-, ,...1
'-'L.L.. +
790 •
63t. +
622 +
603 •
5S7 •
574 +
c•o:-.. JC• .... I +
1:' ~:.-0
• ... 1 ._1 \.) •
553 +
549 •
Low.
Case
0 •
() •
0 +
54 • 7 ,_ •
l03 •
83 .,
145 +
1 "; 1:" ~·· ........ J •
17:1 +
145 +
146 +
:1 A6 •
147 +
J 47 +
1 Ll ~ -· 'I +
147 +
'· ·~ 8 •
148 •
14:3 •
High
Case
0
()
0
300
417
389
:3:1.4
80:1.
l553
2,. 63
2l00
j '7'66
1285
1?66
1244
12 '· 7
:1 :1.85 , J. 4 6
j 106
:1.074
+
•
•
+
•
•
•
+
•
+
>
+
+
+
+
·)
+
•
+
•
Alternative
Four Case
0 •
() •
0 •
146 +
l'?8 •
262 •
'it:'"O ..:. ,_1 ._, >
42.9 •·
54:1. +
546 (•
520 •
454 •
447 +
44l •
436 •
433 •
431. (·
4;';:9 ' 428 +
427 •
t•1ean Offshore
Loading Case
0 •
Q_,
0 •·
188 .
276 •
-~o ~,!,, •
7-Li .. ! \,~ I +
337 +
362 +
354 +
234 •
226 +
220 •
21.6 •
213 •
210 •
20B +
'207 •
206 +
~:(Jt.. +
SC~:~CE: sc;.;p· ~-~odel Projections.
241
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.
0 •
0 •
146 +
:t <7' 8 •
262 •
258 +
:'92 •
::-~5 '· •
250 +
:u,s •
165 +
165 •
j_ 64 +
164 •
U>5 +
1 c.. 5 •
:!.65 •
j 66 +
1.66 +
Year
i ·~ C• 'i --· '.!:·.:..
19B3
l7'E4
~-993
1.'?94
19'7'5
'i •:: C• •=• J. , .. •.;
1 '7' ·;· '7'
;~ (:r (} (t
TABLE
l·iean
Cc.se
o.o
o.o
o.o
1 • t,
2.3
2.7
·"") L • .:. ~ '-J
4.5
1., '") .... + -~-
5.9
c:-C" dt...J
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.:!.
2.8
'") ' .·: •• ·'":!
2.4
2 ., .1.
129. PROJECTED PERCEIHAGE II~PACT OF NORTH
ALEUTIAN S!-iELF SALE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TOTAL POPULATION
(INCLUDING MILITARY, MILITARY DEPENDENTS,
ENCLAVE RESIDENTS, AND FISHER~·1EN)
Low High Alternative 1•1ean Offshot·e
Case Case Four Case Loading Case
o.o o.o o.o o.o
o,o o.o 0 ,() 0 .()
o.o o.o o.o o.o
0.5 '") t:"
.:.. t \,J 1 + ;;> 1.6
0.6 3,4 '· .. :; 2.3
0.8 3 + 1 2. :1. 2.7
0.7 '") t:" ... _ 1-._ ... 2, '· 2.b
1. 2 6 + j 3.4 2.7
:1..0 :!.0 ., 9 4 , '· 2(-8
1.3 j 4 + l. 4.0 2.6
l.O :1.3,3 :3.7 1.7
:1.0 1.2.1 3.l L6
1 + 0 7.9 2.9 1 + 4
0.9 7.4 2.7 1. 3
0 •. 9 6.9 ~, t:" 1 ,.., .. · .. t "'I . .:.
0 ., 8 6.3 ~t~ t + 2
o.s 5.8 '1 '") 1 • 1 .:... f .:..
0,7 C" '") .J t .o\. 2t0 , ~ ..• v
0.6 4.6 '· + 8 0.9
0.6 4. :1. l. 7 0 + :3
SC:;RCE: SCH;P l·iodel Projections.
242
Alternative
Four Offshore
Loading Case
o.o
o.o
o.o
1 + 2
:1..6
2 + ~
2.:1.
'") -..:.. .........
1.,9
1.9
l..2
1 • :1
1. 1.
1.0
'· + 0 0.9
0.8
0.8 o·., + I
0.7
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
l
[
r,
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
l
[
APPENDIX A: THE MA~ REGIONAL MODEL
Introduction
This appendix presents in general outline form the structure of the
new MAP regional model utilized in this report. This model replaces a
more cumbersome model used in earlier OCS studies.
In developing this model, several major objectives were addressed.
These objectives are the following:
• that the structure be simple and generalizable
• that the parameters be specified in terms with clear,
intuitive meaning
• that the regions be disaggregated to census division levels
• that the model be sufficiently flexible to be tied easily to
the MAP statewide model.
This appendix is organized as follows: Part II examines in detail the
structure of the model. Part III presents estimates of the model
parameters.
Structure of the Model
OVERVIEW
The model consists of two components as shown in Figure 4. Given an
exogenous estimate of statewide employment, by sector (provided from a
[ _____ '_ -· _ ~~~r_e;p~ndi.ng state model run), and vectors of basic and government
emp 1 oyment in each of the twenty regions shown in Figure 5, the
[
I -
L 244
I
t I
i
I
t I
i
I
I
I
Figure 4. SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF
REGIONAL MODEL CDMOD
MAP STATEWIDE
MODEL
J
BETA (t)
GAMMA (t)
-----
[
[
[
[
[
[
-----· -----··· f
[ --~
EMPLOYMENT
COMPONENT
POPULATION
COMPONENT
\
I
I
I
I
I
I
I REGIONALIZATION
[
[
[
I MODEL [
I
I [
: [
: L
: [
----I---[_Pf]__.____ __ :_/--~--b--
1 ___________ l [
r .
245 L
-J rn
Census Divisions
Barrow-North Slope
--("")
rT1 ::z
Ul c
Ul
(\\J ~
.......
Ul .......
0 ::z
Ul
employment component of the model generates estimates of support and
total employment in each of the twenty regions. The population com-
ponent accepts these estimates along with exogenous estimates of
statewide population (also from the statewide model) to generate
regional population estimates.
THE EMPLOYMENT COMPONENT
Each of the twenty regions is di saggregated into three types of em-
ployment: basic, government, and support. Basic employment consists
of all sectors or portions of sectors treated as exogenous in the
state model: agriculture, forestry, fisheries, manufacturing, mining,
construction, and a portion of transportation. Government consists of
federal civilian and military employees as well as state and local
employees. Support includes all other employment.
The structure of the employment model is as follows:
Define: s .. 1J
B.
1
= Support sector employment in region i serving
region j
= Basic sector employment in region i.
G. = Government sector employment in region i.
1
M.
1
CL •• 1J
b .
J
= Total employment in region i.
= Proportion of region j support requirements
supplied by region i.
= Support employment required per unit of total
employment in region j.
247
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Total employment in each of n regions is written:
(1)
Total
(2)
s11 + s12 +
521 + 522 +
support sector
s, + 521 +
512 + 522 +
+ Sln + 81 + G1 = M1
+ 52n + 82 + G2 = M2
requirements within each region
+ 5 nl = b1M1
+ 5n2 = b2M2
may be written:
ButS .. = a .. b.M., so that system (1) may be rewritten: lJ lJ J J
( 1 I)
a 11 b1M1 + a 12 b2M2 +
a2lb1Ml + a22b2M2 +
+ a 1nbnMn + 81 + G1 = M1
· + a2nbnMn + 82 + G2 = M2
a b M + a b M + + a b M + B + G = M n 1 1 1 n2 2 2 · · · nn n n n n n
or, in matrix notation,
A = [a .. b.] lJ J
M = [M.]
1
-L------'_ ----------_A_~.--~ B + G = M
where B = [B;]
G = [Gi]
L
[ 248
If the A matrix were known, then total employment is calculated as a
linear function of basic and government employment, or
(3) M=[I-A]-l [B+G]
Of course, we do not know A. By incorporating known regional data
with a single simplifying assumption and a behavioral hypothesis
describing the allocation of interregional support demands, however,
it is possible to estimate A for a point in time, say 1979.
Known Regional Data. Regional employment for 1979 was available from
the Alaska· Department of Labor publications, specifically Statis-
tical Quarterly and Alaska Economic Trends. The breakdown of such
emp 1 oyment by basic, government, and support sectors is shown in
Table 130 for 1979.
A Simplifying Assumption. Since the major concern of the regional
model is to capture the effect of support sector demands which are
supp 1 i ed in regions other than the one giving rise to such demands,
rather than to examine the effects of differentia 1 support demands
across regions, it seems plausible, or at least not overly restric-
tive, to impose the condition that
(4) b = b = 1 2
B + G =b =b=(l---) n M
249
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That is, a unit of total employment, wherever it occurs in the state,
is assumed to give rise to the same support sector requirements. The
difference between regions, then, is so 1 ely the difference in the
locations from which these demands will be supplied.
This assumption has the obvious disadvantage that it neglects real
interregional differences in demand for support sector services.
However, it also has several advantages which may more than compensate
for this shortcoming. Most obviously, it reduces our estimation
problem by n-1 parameters. More importantly, it is extremely valuable
as a tool for maintaining consistency with the statewide MAP model,
both in a static and a dynamic sense. Currently, a unit of basic
sector emp 1 oyment in the state model has the same· static emp 1 oyment
impact regardless of its location in the state. Regionally varying
bj 1 s would produce differing total statewide static impacts by loca-
tion, thus being inconsistent with the state model. Furthermore, the
introduction of b exogenously provides a valuable tool for maintaining
dynamic consistency between the models. By letting b vary with time
so as to reflect the corresponding state run, we both force the A
matrix to vary over time to reflect the same degree of structural
change represented by the state model and force the employment totals
to replicate the statewide results.
A Behavioral Hypothesis. The major reason that not all support sector
requirements ar~ supplied internally from that region is that it would
be more costly to do so than to secure those services from a different
250
TABLE 130 . EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION, 1979
Support Basic 1 Government2 Total
Region (S.)
1 (B.)
1
(G.)
1
(M.
1
01 Aleutian Islands 377 2,463 3,264 6,104
02 Anchorage 45,404 13,828 34,009 93,241
04 Barrow/North Slope 594 3,467 1 ,514 5,575
05 Bethel 1, 917 420 1,360 3,697
06 Bristol Bay* 839 1,778 1 , 197 3,814
08 Cordova/McCarthy 403 1,005 344 1, 752
09 Fairbanks 11,191 3,584 12,801 27,576
11 Southeast Alaska** 9,475 9,284 11 , 081 29,840
12 Kenai/Cook Inlet 2,819 3,564 1 ,481 7,864
14 Kobuk 402 114 935 1 ,451
15 Kodiak 1 ,644 3,631 2,051 7,326
16 Kuskokwim 123 13 435 571
17 Matanuska/Susitna 1, 505 560 1, 345 3,410
18 Nome 1 ,083 298 980 2,361
21 Seward 433 709 390 1, 532
24 Southeast Fairbanks 240 149 1,636 2,025
25 Upper Yukon 99 25 302 426
26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier 715 678 927 2,320
27 Wade Hampton 208 236 595 1,039
29 Yukon/Koyukuk 506 807 1, 208 2,521
ST Statewide 79,977 46,613 77,855 204,445
*Includes Bristol Bay and Bristol Bay Borough Census Divisions.
**Includes the following Census Divisions: Angoon, Haines, Juneau,
Ketchikan, Outer Ketchikan, Prince of Wales, Sitka, Skagway-Yakutat,
and Wrangell-Petersburg.
1 Mining, manufacturing, construction, agriculture-forestry-fisheries,
'" ,and,miscellaneo.us·; · -., " · ·
2 Federal, state, and local government.
251
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region. It is only natural, then, that the cost of supply should be
the major determining factor ·in deciding on which other regions to
supply the requirements. Such costs as transportation, communication,
etc. are generally expected to increase with distance and to decrease
with the size of the support sector source of the region. Specif-
ically, we will assume that such costs are:
R ••
(5) c .. = k .2..1 where 1J M. 1
c .. = cost of supplying a unit of 1J support service to region j
from region i
R •• = distance* between regions i 1J and j
M. = total employment of region i
1
k = an arbitrary constant
and are as presented in Table 131 for k = 1000.
The total costs of interregional service provision are then:
(6)
n n
C = I I
j=1 i=1
c .. s .. 1J 1J
We hypothesize that the Sij's actually chosen in any given time period
are chosen in such a way as to minimize the costs of providing the
required services observed in region j from each of the sources of
such supply i.
*Air fares were used as a proxy for distance since straight line
distances fa i 1 to capture the structure of statewide transportation
and communications networks.
252
TABLE 131. ASSUMED COSTS OF INTERREGIONAL SERVICE PROVISION
Demand Region
Supply Region
I
IH ~2 ~4 ~5 ~6 ~8 ~9 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
I ~+. Aleutian Islands 0 33 52 45 23 57 42 47 36 48 41 40 37 48 37 48 47 40 47 44
~f Anchorage 2 0 1 1 1 * 1 1 * 1 1 * * 1 l'r 1 1 ·* 1 1
~'r Barrow/North Slope 57 20 0 33 30 26 15 36 22 29 29 22 24 29 24 25 20 28 38 24
~5 Bethel 75 20 50
I
0 35 29 28 43 25 36 3~ 32 25 25 26 44 37 32 8 38
~~ Bristol Bay 37 15 45 34 0 23 28 37 19 39 13 26 20 . 39 20 38 37 26 36 33
~8 Cordova/McCarthy 199 18 83 61 50 0 47 38 29 70 46 43 30 70 31 68 66 13 64 57 ~$ Fairbanks 9 2 3 4 4 3 0 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 5 2
u Southeast Alaska 10 . 3 7 5 5 2 3 0 3 6 4 4 4 6 4 5 4 3 6 5
I Kenai/Cook 12 Inlet 28 2 . 16 12 9 6 9 13 0 14 8 8 5 14 5 13 13 8 13 11 I 12 lf' Kobuk 203 63 112 92 101 85 57 122 75 0 96 76 76 28 78 97 79 93 34
N 15 Kodiak 34 7 22 17 7 11 11 18 9 19 0 13 9 19 10 19 18 13 20 16
(.}'! 16 Kuskokwim 433 77 i15 207 175 133 74 228 109 194 161 0 112 123 116 177 131 154 256 49 w
I l~ Hatanuska/Susitna 65 6 39 28 22, 15 21 31 11 33 20 19 0 33 12 32 30 19 30 26
1·8 Nome 125 39 69 39 62 52 35 75 46 17 59 30 47 0 48 60 49 . 57 27 21 I Seward 147 14 89 63 48 26 74 46 43 74 69 43 67 2~ 51 35 70 27 0 72 59
2,i S.E. Fairbanks 144 43 69 80 71 59 29 79 52 70 67 50 53 70 54 0 45 65 83 54
25 Upper Yukon 674 197 268 319 329 272 77 315 239 270 310 176 244 270 249 216 0 300 385 197
26 Valdez/Chitina/
217
Whittier 106 19 68 51 43 10 41 38 27 58 40 38 28 58 28 57 55 0 54 48
Wade Hampton 273 78 204 27 132 109 126 161 95 101 144 141 97 62 99 163 158 120" 0 110
z,9 Yukon Koyukuk 107 .27 52 56 49 40 20 61 34 20 '46 11 35 20 -36 44 33 44 45 0
I
*· Indicates c .. < 0.5. 1J
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Estimating the Interregional Interaction Matrix. The hypothesis of
(c) and the condition of (b) imply that our observed 1979 data repre-
sented the solution to a constrained minimization problem of the form:
(7)
n n
Min .L .L
j=l i=l
c .. s .. lJ lJ
sr s 11 -+ s 12 + + S = M79 _ 879 _ G79
2n 1 1 1
S S + S = M79 _ 879 _ G79 21 + 22 + · · · 2n 2 2 2
5 nl + 5 n2 +
s, + 5 21 + . . .
sl2 + 5 22 + . . .
5 ln + 52n + .
s .. > 0 lJ -l,J i,j
+ s = M79 _ 879 -G79
nn n n n
+ S = b79M79 nl 1
+ S = b79M79 n2 2
[ ______________ _
[
254
79 79 Note that S .. =a .. b M. , so that problem (7) may be reformulated in 1 J 1 J J
terms of decision variables with a far more intuitive meaning than the
S .. •s, namely the a .. •s. The reformulated problem is then: 1J . 1J
o·)
where
n
l.:
j=l
n
l.: C •• a .. M~9
i=l 1 J 1 J J
anl M79/M79
1 n + an2 M79/M79 +
2 n
all + a21 + . . . + anl
al2 + a22 + · . · + an2
aln + a2n + . + a nn
a .. > 0 "' i 'j 1J -
79· 79 s?9 G?9 N. =M.---. 1 1 1 1
255
79
a = Nn I b79
nn 79
M n
= 1
= 1
= 1
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which, assuming that a feasible solution exists, can be solved using a
standard linear programming routine.
The solution, a set of nxn ex .. •s, comprises a matrix which we will lJ
call the regional interaction matrix. Each entry, ex .. , represents the lJ
share of support requirements in region j supplied from region i.
Each of the columns, therefore, must sum to unity. Thus, a quick
glance down each column provides a subjective test of the plausibility
of the matrix. ~priori, one would expect nonzero entries in all of
the diagonal elements and along the rows of the regional support
centers (Bethel, Fairbanks, Nome,) and probably along the entire row
corresponding to Anchorage, which is a statewide support center.
Summary. Once the regional interaction matrix has been determined for
a single year, say 1979, then this together with b79 determines fully
the A matrix which existed in 1979. For projections to a future
period t, we will assume that the interregional interaction matrix
remains stable, but that b changes in the regional model as it does in
a corresponding run of the statewide model. Therefore, employment is
estimated in year t as
(8) M(t) = [I -A(t)]-l
79 where A(t) = b(t) [aij]
The Population Component
[B(t) + G(t)]
[_ _ .~. _ .~ _ -·--~C.urr:-en-Uy, tf:le population .mode~ . is sp-ecified as independent .. of .. the
L employment model. We can define:
r -
L 256
R ..
1J
= Residents from region i working in region j
~ .. = Proportion of employees working in region j 1J in region i
R. 1 = Resident employment in region i
p.
1 = Population in region i
d. 1 = Dependents per employee in region i
Total resident employment in the regions may be written
(9)
Rll + R12 + .
R21 + R22 +
or, since R .. = ~-.M., as
1 J 1 J J
(91)
+ Rln = Rl
+ R = R2 2n
+ R = Rn nn
+ ~ M = R nn n n
Total resident population may then be written:
(10)
residing
as:
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L
L
--------~---------------~
257
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~
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or in matrix notation
(11) QM = p where Q = [ ( 1 +d . ) ~ .. ]
1 1J
M = [Mi]
p = [Pi]
Now, the interregional structure of nonresident employment is captured
in the Q matrix, called the location matrix, which is unknown and must
be estimated.
Generally, there are three properties which this matrix should ideally
satisfy. First, it would be desirable that such a structure reflect
differential dependency rates across regions (d; :f. dj). Second, it
should reflect independence of extra-regional employment changes.
That is, if employment does not change in region i, population should
not change in region i. Third, it should be consistent with the state
model. Unfortunately, it is impossible to satisfy all three prop-
erties simultaneously.
The first and second property may be satisfied by assuming that
employees reside in the region of their employment. If such is the
case, then the i nterregi ana 1 1 ocat ion matrix, composed of the ~ .. 's,
1J
is the identity matrix, and system (9) implies that
(12) d. = pi -1
1 M.
1
(i = 1, ... , n)
258
so that Q is a diagonal matrix which can be estimated using 1979 data.
Unfortunately, this procedure cannot be made consistent with the
statewide model · since total population impacts of changes in the
scenarios will be dependent on the location of employment as well as
its magnitude, while it is currently independent of location in the
s ta tewi de mode 1 .
By adjusting the d.•s over time, so that
1
(13) (1 + d~)
1 * a (t)
where a(t) = statewide population-to-employment ratio, we can force
consistency with the state model, but at a cost of giving up the
independence of extra-regi ona 1 emp 1 oyment change property. Now, a
change in employment in region j ~ i will change the adjustment factor
in (13), thus changing total population in region i even if employment
does not change in region i.
Consistency with the state model and independence of extraregional
employment changes may be achieved by requiring that all di 1 s are
equal to the statewide average, but this fails to satisfy the first
property and is inconsistent with an identity location matrix. If we
are willing to abandon the first property, the problem may be solved
in much the same. way as was the problem posed in estimating the param-
eters of the emp 1 oyment component, by so 1 vi ng the following 1 i near
programming problem:
259
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l=
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L
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~~
L
Min
ST
(14)
n n
I I C .. R ..
j=1 i=1 lJ lJ
Rll + R12 +
R21 + R22 +
Rn1 + Rn2 +
Rll + R21 +
R12 + R22 +
+ R = R79 1 n 1
+ R = R79 nn 2
+ R nn = R79
n
+ R = (1+d79) M79 n1 1
+ R = n2 (1+d79) M79
2
260
79 79 or alternately, since R .. = (l+d ) p ... M. lJ lJ 1
n n
Min (l+d79 ) l:
j=l
79 l: C •• p .. M. lJ lJ J
i=l
+ p M = P I (l+d79 ) nn n n
P11 + P21 + · · · + Pnl = 1
+ p = 1 n2
+ p = 1 nn
261
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b~~
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The current version of the mode 1 adopts the second of these three
alternate procedures, using an identity location matrix and adjusting
the d.'s over time as described by equation (13).
1
While such a procedure has the obvious advantage of simplicity, it has
several serious drawbacks. First, as mentioned earlier, such a speci-
fication necessarily will produce population impacts in regions where
no employment changes have occurred, as a consequence of the adjust-
ment factor in equation (13). The operation of this factor gives the
model the property that growing regions will attract population from
(relatively) stagnant regions. However, within the constraints of the
limited scope of this project, it was felt that such a drawback was
less serious than those associated with the available alternatives.
Furthermore, there are several reasons to believe that this effect is
likely to not be a serious shortcoming of the model. First, the
population drawn from stagnant regions is quite small and is generally
offset by induced increases in government employment which are always
more widely dispersed than initial changes in basic employment. More
importantly, however, the direction of the effect will always be the
same as a real effect--interregional migration, which has been ne-
glected entirely. Thus, the drain may actually offset, at least in a
small way, a known estimation error. Nonetheless, the population
estimation procedure must be regarded as generally much weaker than
the employment component described earlier, and it needs to be
[' ' improved with fu_rther research.
-1::: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ---~ ~-~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -...= ~--~ -~ ~ ~-~-:--~-~-~-=--~---~--~--·~--~~~-~-~ =--~-c~--=~-~~~~=--=-=-=~-~-~·-=~-=-~~·-==•=,-=~~~~~-~~~-c==~~~-~---•-=~-•~-= = ·--:·-~--~~-~--~--~--~---~ -~ ~ ~-
L
[ 262
PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL
The Regional Employment Interaction Matrix
The 1979 [a .. ] matrix estimated by the linear programming routine for lJ
the problem described in Part II is presented in Table 132. Note that
the pattern is as would have been expected. All diagonal terms are
nonzero, with the larger support centers being self-sufficient (having
diagonal entries of 1). Anchorage and Fairbanks appear to be the only
significant support centers, with Anchorage supplying most regions and
Fairbanks supplying Kuskokwim, Upper Yukon, and Yukon-Koyukuk. Two
local support centers emerge, with Bethel supporting Wade Hampton and
Nome supporting Kobuk.
Employment Location Matrix
As discussed above in Part II, the regional employment location matrix
will, in this application, be assumed to be the identity matrix.
Population/Employment Ratio Vector
The vector of population-to-employment ratios for 1979 is presented in
Table 133.
263
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TABLE 132. EMPLOYMENT INTERACTION MATRIX, 1979
Demand Region
Supply Region .01 .02 .04 .05 .06 .08 .09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
.01 Aleutian Islands . 16
.02 Anchorage .84 1. .73 .44 .41 . 19 .08 .01 .43 . 28 . 7 . .21 .25
.04 Barr.ow .27
.05 Bethel 1. .49
06 Bris;tol Bay .56
08 Cordova/McCarthy .59
09 Fairbanks 1. .45 .41 .24
1'\) 11 Southeast Alaska .81 0'1
..f:>
12 Kenai/Cook Inlet .92
14 Kobuk .71
15 Kodiak .57
16 Kuskokwim .55
17 Matanuska/Susitna 1.
18 Nome .28 1.
21 Seward .72
24 S. E. Fairbanks .3
25 Upper Yukon .59
26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier .79
27 Wade Hampton .51
29 Yukon Koyukuk .51
TABLE 133. POPULATION/EMPLOYMENT RATIOS,
Region Population Employment
~1 Aleutian Islands 7,030 6,104
1!'2 Anchorage 177,981 93,241
~4 Barrow/North Slope 4, 771 5,575
1!'5 Bethel 9,739 3,697
1!'6 Bristol Bay 5,204 3,814
~8 Cordova/McCarthy 2,475 1,752
1!'9 Fairbanks 54,000 27,576
11 Southeast Alaska 51,319 29,840
12 Kenai/Cook Inlet 23,244 7,864
14 Kobuk 4,695 1,451
15 Kodiak 9,956 7,326
16 Kuskokwim 2,941 571
17 Matanuska/Susitna 18,910 3,410
18 Nome 6,755 2,361
21 Seward 3' 152 1,532
24 S.E. Fairbanks 5,507 2,025
25 Upper Yukon 1,482 426
26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier 7,013 2,320
27 Wade Hampton 4,853 1,039
29 Yukon Koyukuk 5,325 2,521
ST Statewide 406,352 204,445
265
1979
Population/
Employment
1.15
1.91
0.86
2.63
1.36
1.41
1. 96
1.72
2.96
3.24
1.36
5.15
5.55
2.06
2.06
2. 72
3.48
3.02
4.67
2.11
1. 99
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L
" I
l.~
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l~
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r-
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b------~
L
L
APPENDIX B: PROJECTION OF BOTTOMFISH HARVESTING
AND PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT
The MAP and SCIMP models require as inputs projections of resident and
nonresident employment in fish harvesting and fish processing. One
source of employment in these areas which has not been important in
the past, but which may expand greatly in the future, is bottomfish
harvesting and processing. The 1981 bottomfish harvest in the Bering
Sea and the Gulf of Alaska totaled 1,614 thousand metric tons. Of
this, the U.S. harvest accounted for only 108 thousand metric tons, or
6. 7 percent of the total, while foreign fishing fleets (primarily
Japan, the U.S.S.R., Korea, and Taiwan) accounted for the rest (Alaska
Department of Fish and Game; National Marine Fisheries Service).
Whi 1 e most observers expect that U.S. bottomfi sh harvests will rise
greatly over the next 20 years, the total extent of this increase and
its effects on employment are highly uncertain. A number of factors
suggest that the U.S. fishing fleet, and in particular onshore Alaska
processors, are at an economic disadvantage compared to foreign opera-
tions. These are high U.S. labor costs (in particular in Alaska),
high transportation costs from Alaska (due partly to the Jones Act),
lack of a well-developed transportation and services infrastructure,
lack of a highly skilled, stable labor force for an onshore processing
industry, lack of U.S. marketing channels for Alaska groundfish, high
American intere~t rates; subsidization of foreign fisheries, high
- --·--
quality standards in foreign markets, and import barriers for foreign
267
markets. These factors are discussed in Scott (1980) and Natural
Resources Consultants (1980). · Working in favor of the future deve 1-
opment of the U.S. bottomfish industry are the commitment of the State
of Alaska to growth of the industry and the carrot and stick provided
by U.S. allocations of Alaska groundfish resources to foreign operators.
Widely varying estimates of employment impacts of bottomfish industry
expansion have been produced by earlier studies such as those by Sea
Grant (Terry, 1980), and Earl R. Combs, Inc. (1981). The difference
in these estimates can be attributed to differences in assumptions
about total U.S. harvest levels, the allocation of the harvest between
different harvesting and processing methods, employment requirements
per metric ton harvested and processed, and the residency patterns of
harvesting and processing employees. In order to project employment
for this study, assumptions were made with respect to each of these
variables, based on past studies and other available evidence.
The assumptions used to project Aleutian Islands employment for the
SCIMP model varied slightly from those used to project statewide and
census division employment for the MAP model, due to the availability
of more recent harvest data and a revision of residency assumptions.
The assumptions are presented below.
1. Total Domestic Bottomfish Harvest, by Region. The North Pacific
Fisheries Management Council divides Alaska bottomfish resources by
two regions, the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutian Island
268
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area. We used this same regional division. A similar division was
used by the Sea Grant study (Terry, 1980), except that only the
Chirikov/Shumagin (western) part of the Gulf of Alaska was studied.
Earlier studies by Sea Grant (Terry, 1980) and Earl R. Coombs (1981)
assumed that U.S. domestic bottomfish harvests will rise from present
levels to a maximum sustained yield level in the year 2000. The Sea
Grant study assumed a constant growth rate, with most of the growth
occurring towards the end of the period, while the Combs study assumed
a normal growth path, with much more rapid growth during the early
part of this period.
The assumptions in these studies are to a large extent arbitrary. The
rate and form of U.S. takeover of the Alaska bottomfishery will depend
upon uncertain economic trends and political and management decisions.
Our own best guess is that the growth of the U.S. bottomfish industry
will proceed relatively gradually at first, due to the unfavorable
r ~ economic factors listed above, but will eventually be substantial, as
-a result of improving markets and political and management support of
[ a U.S. industry. Therefore, we assumed that in each region the
domestic catch waul d grow at a constant rate of growth from 1981
[~ harvest levels to the optimum yield level. This assumption is similar
[ ::t::: :::n G::::m::s:::~~nn~dex:i•:l: t::\:: ::::::t t;:v:;t:::: ::::~
L------·----~~~lacement is achieved. This is the harvest level which the North
L
269
Pacific Fisheries Management Council attempts to achieve, and varies
slightly from the maximum yield for biological and economic reasons.
The North Pacific Fisheries Management Co unci 1 fisheries management
plans give optimum yields for the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska as
1, 559,226 metric tons and 361,550 metric tons, respectively (Bering
Sea Management Plan, Table 62, page 6-1a, and Gulf of Alaska Manage-
ment Plan, page III-1).
The MAP model employment projections assumed a 1981 harvest level of
87,381 metric tons for the Bering Sea, and 20,159 metric tons for the
Gulf of Alaska, based on preliminary Alaska Department of Fish and
Game figures. The SCIMP model used a 1981 Bering Sea harvest level of
87,512 metric tons.
Resulting total harvest projections are shown in Table 134.
2. Allocation of Catch. All domestic bottomfish harvesting and
processing was assumed to be by three methods: harvest by U.S.
trawlers working in joint ventures with foreign processing ships,
harvest by U.S. catcher-processors for offshore processing, or harvest
by U.S. trawlers for onshore processing plants located in the Aleutian
Islands (for Bering Sea harvests) or on Kodiak Island (for Gulf of
Alaska harvests). The proportion of harvest allocated to each method
was assumed to change in a linear fashion over time from starting to
ending values, presented below:
270
[
[
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[
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[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
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r ,
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[
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['
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TABLE 134: ALLOCATION OF HARVEST ASSUMPTIONS
Joint Trawlers
Venture Catcher Fishing for
Trawlers Processors Onshore Processing
Starting Values
(MAP Models) .89 0 .11
Starting Values
(SCIMP Model) . 897 .026 .077
Ending Values
(Both Models) .20 .60 .20
The high ending share for catcher processors reflects an assumption
that this form of harvesting and processing will eventually prove most
economical for development of the U.S. domestic bottomfish industry.
3. Employment per Metric Ton Harvested and Processed. The following
figures are assumed for employment coefficients:
Offshore Processing .00323 Employees/metric ton
Trawlers Fishing for
Onshore Plants .00222 Employees/metric ton
Onshore Processing Plants .00746 Employees/metric ton
Joint Venture Trawlers .00222 Employees/metric ton
The first three figures are based on emp 1 oyment assumptions in
the Sea Grant study (Terry, 1980, pp. 46, 47). The offshore proc-
essing figure is an average for all bottomfish species (Terry, 1980,
Table 4.110, p. 525). We assumed the same employment coefficient for
joint venture trawlers as for trawlers fishing for onshore plants.
271
4. Residency. For the MAP models, residency patterns were assumed
to remain constant throughout the projection period. For the SCIMP
mode 1 emp 1 oyment projections, residency shares were assumed to in-
crease in a linear fashion over time from 1981 until 2000, as a result
of growth in local communities and establishment of a year-round
harvesting and processing industry. These assumptions are shown in
Table 135.
The MAP model residency assumptions were used for the census division
breakdown of employment for the regional model. Thus, employees
fishing in the Bering Sea, but residing in Kodiak, were considered to
be located in Kodiak for the regional model base case assumptions.
This was in contrast with the treatment of 11 enclave 11 employment in the
MAP regional model assumptions, where, for instance, employment at
Prudhoe Bay is considered to be 1 ocated in the Barrow/North Slope
region, even though very few of these employees reside in the region.
5. Onshore Processing Plant Construction Employment. A ratio of
.0015 man-years of construction employment per metric ton increase in
onshore processing plant capacity is assumed. This construction
employment is assumed to occur in the year prior to the increase in
onshore processing capacity. For the SCIMP model runs, all of this
employment was assumed to be nonresident.
272
[
[
[
[
[
r~
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
L
[
[
[
[
[
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[
[
[
L
[
[
L
l
TABLE 135. BOTTOMFISH EMPLOYMENT RESIDENCY ASSUMPTIONS
MAP Models: Residency Share Assumptions a
Aleutian Outside
Islands Kodiak Anchorage of Alaska
Catcher Processors·
Bering Sea 0.2 0.0 0.1
G u 1 f of A 1 as ka 0.0 0.2 0.1
Joint Venture Trawlers
Bering Sea 0.4 0.4 0.0
Gulf of A 1 aska 0.0 0.8 0.0
Onshore Processing
Bering Sea 1.0 0.0 0.0
Gulf of Alaska 0.0 1.0 0.0
Trawlers for Onshore
Bering Sea 1.0 0.0 0.0
Gulf of A 1 aska 0.0 1.0 0.0
SCIMP MODEL: Share of Bering Sea Fishing and
Processing Employment Residing in the Aleutian Islands
Emplo~ment Type 1981 2000
Catcher Processors .2 .2
Joint Venture Trawlers .2 .5
Onshore Processing .25 .8
Trawlers Fishing for
Onshore Plants . 25 .8
aAssumed to remain constant.
273
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Employment Projections
The bottomfish employment projections based on these assumptions are
presented in Table 66 (Chapter III, page 150) for the MAP models, and
in Table 136 for the SCIMP model.
TABLE 136. SCIMP MODEL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BOTTOMFISH EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
1981 1985 1990 1995 2000
Total Harvest 87,512 160,500 342,400 7,307,000 1,559,000
Employment
Joint Venture Trawlers
Resident 35 70 147 262 346
Nonresident 139 197 283 360 346
Catcher Processors
Resident 1 15 66 212 604
Nonresident 6 61 264 848 2,417
Trawlers Fishing for
Onshore Plants
Resident 4 13 52 178 554
Nonresident 11 23 50 94 138
Processing Plants
Resident 13 45 177 600 1,864
Nonresident 38 78 169 315 466
SOURCE: See text.
274
[
[
[
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[
[
[
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[
[
[
l
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[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
Appendix B Sources
Alaska Department oj Fish and Game, Groundfish Catch Statistics,
included in North Pacific Fisheries Management Council briefing paper
(November 24, 1981).
Earl R. Combs, Inc. 1981. St. George Basin and North Aleutian Shelf
Commercial Fishing Analysis. BLM Alaskan Outer Continental Shelf
Office Technical Report No. 60 (BLM, Anchorage, October).
North Pacific Fishery Management Council. 11 Fishery Management Plan
for the Gulf of Alaska Groundfish Fishery 11 (Anchorage, North Pacific
Fishery Management Council, June 1981).
North Pacific Fishery Management Co unci 1. 11 Fishery Management Plan
for Groundfish in the Bering Sea/Aleutian Island Area 11 (Anchorage,
North Pacific Fishery Management Council, November 19, 1979).
Terry, Joseph M., Roger G. Scoles, and Douglas Larson. (Alaska Sea
Grant Program, University of Alaska). 1980. Western Alaska and Bering
Norton Petroleum Development Scenarios: Commercial Fishing Industry
Analysis, OCS Technical Report No. 51 (Anchorage, Alaska OCS Office,
August).
b -----~· -----------.
[
r -
L 275
l 9LZ
c J
J
]
J
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]
J
J
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--~
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[
APPENDIX C: OCS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
OCS annual employment figures were provided by the Alaska OCS office.
These figures were broken down according to the phases and activities
shown in column (1) of Table 137. These figures are reproduced as
Tab 1 es 138-143, corresponding to the different OCS cases studied.
In order to use these employment figures in the MAP models, it was
necessary to make assumptions regarding the shares of OCS workers who
would be Alaska residents. These assumptions are shown in column (4)
of Table 137. For use in the SCIMP model projections for the Aleutian
Islands, it was necessary to make assumptions regarding the shares of
OCS workers who would be residents of the Aleutian Islands. These
assumptions are shown in column (5) of Table 137. Both the state
residency and local residency assumptions are based on a paper by Will
Nebesky and Lee Huskey, entitled 11 Patterns of Resident Employment in
Alaska 1 s Outer Continental Shelf Industry 11 (November, 1981).
[-------- --
L
L 277
TABLE 137. LOCATION AND RESIDENCE ASSUMPTIONS FOR
OCS EMPLOYMENT, SALE 75 (NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Share of Employment
To Local Residents
Share of (SELR)(i.e., Share of
Employment to AK Workers not Living
Assumed Residents (SEAR)(For In Enclaves--For
Activity Abbreviation Location Use In MAP Model) Use In SCIMP Model)
Exeloration Phase
Drilling Rigs EMDDX Offshore 0 0
Aircraft Vessels(c) EMSSX
Aircraft EMSSX1 Cold Bay 1.0 .05
N
'-.I Vessels EMSSX2 Dutch Harbor .15 .15 (X)
Shore Bases(d) EMSBX
Cold Bay Base EMSBX1 Cold Bay 1.0 .1
Dutch Harbor Base EMSBX2 Dutch Harbor 1.0 . 22
Construction Phase
Platform Installation EMPIC Offshore . 25 0
Shore Bases(e) EMSBC
Cold Bay Base EMSBC1 Cold Bay . 5 .10
Dutch Harbor Base EMSBC2 Dutch Harbor . 5 .22
Pipeline Construction(f) EMPCC
Offshore EMPCC1 Offshore . 25 0
Onshore EMPCC2 Onshore(a) .35 .05
N
-.....!
1.0
TABLE 137
(CONTINUED)
(1)
Activity
Oil Terminal
LNG Terminal
Develo~ment Production
Development Drilling
Aircraft/Vessels(g)
Vessels
Aircraft
Shore Bases(h)
Cold Bay Base
Dutch Harbor Base
Headquarters
Oil Terminal
LNG Terminal
Production Operations
(2) (3)
Assumed
Abbreviation Location
EMOTC Cold Bay
EMLTC Cold Bay
Phase
EMDDD Offshore
EMSSD
EMSSD1 Dutch Harbor
EMSSD2 Cold Bay
EMSBD
EMSBD1 Cold Bay
EMSBD2 Dutch Harbor
EMHQD Anchorage
EMOTD Cold Bay
EMLTD Cold Bay
EM POD Offshore
r----"1
l .. J
(4)
Share of
Employment to AK
Residents (SEAR)(For
Use In MAP Model)
.5
. 5
0
.95
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
.95
(5)
Share of Employment
To Local Residents
(SELR)(i.e., Share of
Workers not Living
In Enclaves--For
Use In SCIMP Model)
.05
.05
0
.18
.05
.22
.22
0
.15
.15
.08(b)
TABLE NOTES
(a)Onshore pipeline construction local resident employees were assumed
to live at Cold Bay.
(b)No assumption was made as to the location of residence of those
workers who work offshore but live locally, i.e., in the Aleutians.
Presumably, they would live either in Cold Bay or Dutch Harbor.
(c)Assumed to be 20 percent aircraft and 80 percent vessels, based on a
ratio of one helicopter to two vessels during exploration (Alaska OCS
Office).
(d) Assumed to be 20 percent Co 1 d Bay Base and 80 percent Dutch Harbor
Base, based on aircraft and vessel breakdown.
(e)Same as (d).
(f)Assumed to be 85 percent offshore and 15 percent onshore.
(g)Assumed to be 34 percent aircraft and 66 percent vessels, based on a
ratio of one helicopter to one vessel during development and production
(Alaska OCS Office).
(h)Assumed to be 34 percent Cold Bay Base and 66 percent Dutch Harbor.
280
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DHiLli% RIGS
YE.A R OU:'IINGJ
1 \1114 ZriiSil
19!15 Sr71'5
19il& 6 .. zat
1H1 Sr715
i~ea i, Tl5
~
L J
~~Rt~ ALEUTIAN SHtlt silt t5
MEAN FJASE CASE
. ESfi~AiED tH~LdYMENT E~PltiiAfib~ ~HASt i~AN-~bNTHSJ
AJWCHAFt/~[~S~L~ SHOI~E t!A SF.S
(JR~~~PO~TATIONJ (HPIINGJ
lr2?6 360
z~ 472 3&0
2~472 -i&o
2·'·72 3&0
7oe l&O
TOTAl
!!A N-HONTI15
",51" a .. sH
9r i i 9
8r547
2 .. 1113
AVER~GE
MONTHLY EHPlOYHENT
376
712
759
712
2H
REPORT DATE toi14t6i
YEAR
1984
1985 i 913 6 ..
1987
i968
1989
i990
19 'Jl
PLArrcir.H
INSTALLATION
i2; 735
11·629
24;i97
20 .. 376
5 ... o94
SHrH t
a As~
n4
9~ 4 ?2 4 ..
OCS .EMPLOYMENT, MEAN BASE CASE
-· . __ . _ ... (Con.tinued)
NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE 75
MEAN "11\SE CASE
i::3Tii'IATED biPLOYHENT CONSTRUCTiiiN PHASE <I'AN-HONTHSl
PIPELiNE
C'1N5TilUCTION.
2. 92 i
5. 4 7 3 ..
~ ,, J
·aiL
TERHII'\AL
. i,4ij.
lolOO
"'• 0 ~ 40
LNG
TERHI NAL
2o640
4.8~0
z;& t.o
2o640
TOTAL
HAN-MONTHS
924
924
ij.659
17 .. 829
30rl9B
291'789
flrl71,
3·080
AVERAGE
MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT
77
!7
lol38
lo485
£r516
2o4f2
681
256
R t PoRt d A tt : i o ii 4 /6 t
YE~R
198&
i967
1988
l969
1)190
i !ni
19'12
\<jgj'
1 99 4
l995
1996
l9)1t
199e
i999
2000 zoot
2002 zoo1
2 0 IJit
2565
2DO&
2D67
~DOll
t.Jloo9
2010
2ott
2012
21lil
2014
. . ., ~ ... l . .. . w
DEVH,JPHENT
ORILJLI.Nti
HIJN:INGJ
t0.&31
ila. \'o6
rt.813
'8. 269
&. 30 3
r,no
640
i. 090
;1.060
i.aao
1.neo
i. oa o ·
1. oeo
· i; oii o ··
t.OSO i.oso
1.080 i.oao-···
&00
600
&00
&~rj
&00
600
&DO
&do
&00
.\iiid.\rtt
. V(?Sf:LS
(lRA.\I~Pl
71)8
i~i,if,
2·1,78
5.i8r;
3·1·36 -i.na
1. 7 70
··i~77o
t.77D
i .77o
I • 770
1 .r to
1 • 7 7 ()
i; 776
l -770
········r~77o·
l. 7 70
i ~ 7l 0
l. i1 0
--··-·i~7fil
1. 062
t • 0&2
1.062
i~o~z
l. 01)2
i. o&z
l • 0&2
i.0&2
l. 0&2
--():_.._ EMPL •. JENTL, . ,.tAN l .... ,,J;: CJ.,_.J.!
( Con·t i nued)
·~6~t~ iLttiiiA~ s~tLt ~jLt 75
HEAN IJASE CASE
t~il~lito t~PLdY~tNt fititLti~~t~fi~RODUC~~O~ PHASE i~i~-~b~i~SJ
S~HJR[
131\SES
CMl~JNG>
tlEAOQT J1 S
(MJI'lll'lGJ
:iiL
T(Rf11N.U
CUANSP)
LNG
TERMINAL
CTRANSP)
PROOii CT I ON
OPERAfiONS TOTAl
(HJNJNG> HAN-HONT~S
2.894 3·&02
s.re1 7•203
360 10.127 2~·596
3&ii i3 iJ.o2i Js.r,eo
3&0 26 720 1.440 13.021 30.566
j&o iii i.oao 2.i&o i1.o2i 26·772
J&o 22~ 1.~~0 2.860 n.oz1 26·018
J&o 3i6 t.~~~o 2.86o ij.o2i 20•267
J&o 375 1.4~0 2·860 B·02t zo.G86
j~5 jt§ i.~4b 2.aao il•02i 20•92&
J&o HS t.44o 2·680 n.o21 Z9•9l6
jiJo lis i.~;.o 2.a8o i1.ii21 zoo9H
JGO 375 1.1o40 2·1lllO u.o21 20•?2~ ····go·----------··"Jrs· ·-· .. ·1~~~·5 z.eao ... U.ozi 20•926
3&0 l75 1.4~0 2·880 13.021 20~92&
3~o· ---H~r i.na z.eaa ·i1.ozi 20.926
J&O 375 1·440 2.~eo 11.02t 20·926
's&o · · Hs 1;~46 2.aao iJ.ozi 2a.n6
:r& o H s 1 • 4 4 o 2. e 8 o u • a 2 1 2 o • 9 2 6
-·:n~ o· ·--··--·---·--j 1 §----· ----r~ 4 4 a·--·-· -·-· 2. ~a o · · ·· --i:i. o2 i ---··----2 o. 92 6
180 181! 2.!!80 3r6!lll 8•791! teo iae 2.c8o 1.iliui 8•798
180 186 2•880 3•880 8·798
1il6 i6e 2.880 3.a88 8.798
180 188 2·860 3·888 8·198 iso iee · z.aao 1.aae · 8.798
ll'O 181l 2•880 3•688 8•798
iro ·· iae z.e8o 3.aee e.i96
1eo 186 z.e8o 3·81!8 ll•T9!l
AVER~GE
HONTH Y
EHPLCU'EU
]((!
600
1. 9E6
2•9!6
2•5H
'·~.!1
(. t 73
l•6H
~. 7(:!
1.H!
1· 7 ~ :!.
1·14.!
... !• 74:!
1·7~.:!
1•743
1 ·7 .. .:!
t. 7 4 ~
1·7~.!
. ··--.. -·-! •J ~:!.
t.7U
n.!
7!:!
n.!
7!:!
7.!:!
7:!:!
7 .!:!
73!
7 :!:!
HlPORT OA'~ 11/l~/F1
HAll
19f!4
1') i3 ~
Hil&
('}r)l
1 'i I] tJ
1 9 ~}
11 il)
1 y '11
l 91<::
19 '7 .s
1:174
tn~
19 9(,
1':191
l99b
1199
2000
2001
2002
200 .s
20tH
200)
r--,,ZU•l &
C020 I) 1
.P.2oo tl
2009
2Ul0
2011
2012
2d1J
2014
...--..,
L J
f-I!Nl'Hi
3. c 11:
Gr075
tl. 51, 1
llr C.&<
~ 3· p 5
S~·Z?'•
~5·220
n r1 u2
1 ,, • ') () l
.11 .. 177
1 4. ~ •} ()
llol-'3&
llo f! 36
1~·1l56
I 4, :i 3 !j
14r656
11.,6 F>
14oll3b
1" oil ~ (i
1'trll3&
p.,e 36
1". e36
t.,E5&
4r8)6
H856
4rf!51j
~.as&
4rl.l5&
4rl''56
1trB5fJ
4rl3'56
SI'~:..ThUCilON
}:~/.
'J2 '•
1 3, & 5?
17•o29
30r1HJ
2<Jr799
1Jrli4
.s.o~o
OCS EMPLOYMENT, MEAN BASE CASE
{Continued)
NORT~ ~lEUTIA~ "H£LF ~Al[ 75
~[fiN ,JI\SE C,\'.iE
~UIH1~HY !1F rJTIIF.Cl EMPLUl'MF.NT <MAN-MONTHS)
TR HI!:POii T !\ T I 0~~ TOTAL
1 rl'?& 5, 4 38
z, 47;: <;, 471
3, le·O 26·380
3rl!3!! 33.579
3rlll 6 56r577
3 rl3 6 65r26'i
5, 346 38r740
5r010 29r852
GrO?O 26•078
u. 09 0 20r267
6r090 20r 61Hi
r;, 09 0 20r926
&r090 20•926
6. 09 0 20r926
Gr090 20• 926
&r090 20· 926 r,. 09 o 20r926
GrC~O 20• 'i26
&.090 20· 926
6r0?0. 20•926
6r0?0 20r926
6r0?0 20· 926
3. '14 2 8r798
3r 94 2 8r798
3.~Jit2 l!r79P.
Jr94.2 e. 198
3r'i42 8, 7 98
3, 94 2 l!r798
3r'i42 8r798
3. 91o 2 8r798
3r942 8r798
TCTIIL
MO~lHll EMPLOYMENT
~53
78'1
2, 19!!
2·798
~. 714
s. ~39
3r228
z,t,a1
2, 173
1.688
1r723
lr71o3
1r743
lr 71, 3'
1. 7" 3
1r71o3
1,71,3
1·743
1r71o3
J, 74 3
1r71o3
1. 7 4 3
733
733
733
7 3,3
733
733
733
733
733
YEAR
1964
1'1 !15
198&
19 e7
N co
(J1
Oil I LLI ~IG RIGS
U11 lll NG)
1 ~ 14J
1 • 1/o 3
1· \ld
s;z
~ti~T~ ~LEUTiiN S~tLt sALt 75
95 PERCENT CfiSE
ESTIHiTED E~PLtiY~ENT EXPLtiR.TitiN PHASE CHfiN-MONTHSi
fl I.~ CRfiF TIVESSELS SfiORE Bfl SES TOTAL fiVER AGE
CTlANSPO~TATJON) CMINING) MfiN-MliNTilS MONTilLY EMPLOYMENT
708 560 z~ 211 184
700 3&0 2·211 toto
7!>!1 .l&O 2~211 164
70r. 3& 0 1~&t,O 13&
REPORT DATE 10/16/61
YEA II
\964
B65
B6&
1:161
1966
1969
1990
N co
O'l
f'LAt.FORH
J N'H ALLA T I IJN
6-3&6
6.915
z.5"7
r---'1 \._ , J
OCS EMPLOYMENT, LOW FIND (95% PROBABILITY) CASE
· (Continued)
PC~ C54t() NoRt~ ALttiTI~N ~HELt sALt t~
SUOH
BAS::
266
1,~9
t,Z 9
95 PERCENT CASE
ESTIHATED t~PLOYHENT CONSTRUCTIO~ PHASE (HAN-HONTHS)
PTf'ELJNE
CONSTRUCTJUN
71&
1· 268
r-'1
' j
OIL
TERHI NAL
660
eell
&60
LNG
TERHJNAL
TOTAL
HAN-HONTHS
28&
429
6·797
8·915
3·923
2.11,8
660
AVERAGE
HONTHLY EHPLOYHENT
23
35
566
71,2
326
179
55
r~ r; r;--1 r----ri ll r--'1 r-Jcs l.:_,,.,,.lov~fl.:.•, ,J, Lb;JIND· \ :~~% :-r'] r;) Qn.J...J iJ IJ' ~ ~-J
l. l J r>l'\uo"AB ILl 1 1
(Continued)
flEPOilT OATE 1•,11 b I 01 I'C~ c <;I, 2!) NOll Til AlEUT I fiN SIIELF SALE 75
95 PERCENT OSE
ESTJHATEU EHf'LU YHENT DEVELOI'HENT/PROUUCTlON I'HA'5l (HAN-MONTHS)
0 E VI. Ul~HENT IIJHC~AFT/ 511 UllE Oll LNG PIIOOtJCTION IIVEI111GE
DHILL~Nr, VESSELS BASES tiEAOQTilS TEfHIINfll TEilHINAL OI'[RA T JllNS TOTAL HONHL Y
YEAR Pi!NUHi J (TRA~Sn (HININGJ (MJNINGJ CTil'-NSPJ (TfliiNSPJ (HJNINGJ HAN-MONTHS f.HPLCYHENT
1:18& 354 l r 919 2r 2 7 3 U9
l :1 fH 1 08 3·839 4r54l 378
1988 2~12& 1 OB 3&0 3•839 7 rOB 586
1989 2~12& 3)1, 3&0 i 3 3. 8 39 &rll92 '557
B?O 2.1~& 3'>4 3&0 26' 7 20 3r839 7rlo25 618
1991 UO?I.l 3H 36 I) 92 lr!li!Q 3. 6 39 7 r615 &34
l 7 92 !1~() 354 3&0 \12 \r4lo0 3r039 Gr225 518
lH3 240 554 3 &•J i i 2 i. ,, 4 I) 3 • B 39 &r 345 5<?e
19?4 ,_240 3')1, 360 1 12 1. 4 '• 0 3r839 I). 3 ft5 5 21!
1995 '21.0 354 360 112 1r440 3rll39 6r3lo5 5c:e
1:19& : 2fo0 35 ,, 3&0 1 12 1r4 LoO 3r839 I). 3 ,,5 528
U97 : 2'• 0 354 3&0 112 1r440 3. 839 &rH'5 5 28
199& .; 2ftl) 354 36 0 112 1. 4 '• 0 3r83? &r3lo5 528
t 99 9 2fo0 354 3&0 i. i 2 tritloO 3r839 6r345 528
2 \)I) I) 240 354 36 I') 1 12 1rlolo0 3 r 839 6 • 3 fo5 520
2001 2fo0 351, 360 l\2 l. 4 '· 0 3.839 I). 3 ,, 5 528
2 O:J2 240 354 3() I) \ 12 1 r lo loiJ 3r839 & r 31o 5 52e
2:>03 2ioo 35ft 3&0 ' 12 'r 4 t,Q 3rll3? &r 31o5 528
KEP~RT DATE 10116/81 PCN csr, 31)
YEAR HI NI N (j CIJN5TfWCTION
1 g flit t. 503 20&
li185 \r503 429
1\18& 3•422 &.797
1987 looT 71 6r9\5
1981J &·57. 5 5.923
1909 &. 33 0 2'. lit 8
19qO &r3~1 &GO
1991 & .to 1
1 il92' 4•431
1'1?3 ,, • 5 51
' il 9 ,, ,,,sst
1!1 !15 ,, • 5 'j 1
U9& ,, • 551
19H ,.,551
i998 ;,.ssi
19H 4•551
2000 ior551
2'0Jl 4r551
2 \)0 2 ;, • 55 i
2003 4·551
N co co
OCS EMPLOYMENT, LOW FIND (95% PROBABILITY) CASE
(Continued)
NORTII AU:UTIAN SllELr SALE 75
95 PERCENT C~SE
SUH~A~Y bF OIRECf EHPLOY~ENT (HAN-HONTilSl
TOTAL
TRANSPORTATION TU TAL MONTHLY EHI'LOYHENT
7 0 IJ 2rlo?1 208
. 706 2 r & 40 220
lr 0& 2 llr 281 91o 0
lr 41 & 15.102 1·2511
70!! 10.95& 913
35 4 8 • 81o 0 73&
1.071, o.oe5 &7 3
1·434 7, & 15 &31o
1·794 &r225 518
l•791o &.345 528
lr794 r,, 3 45 526
lr794 r,, 31o5 526
1·794 &r 3 45 528
1r19 4 r,, 31o5 528
i. 79;, &, 31o5 528
1· 7 9 4 &, 345 528
i.79io &r 31o5 520
1·794 r,, 3 45 528
1·794 6.345 528
lr 7 9 4 &r 3 45 528
~ .
r----1 L J
~
_j
~
I
' RF.PJRT OATt IOfl&/Oi
I
ORILLI RIGS
YEAR CHI NGI
, 981,
1965
U!l&
19 !H
1:188
N co
lO
\41,
573
573
573
B 56
PC:-1 C5'•00 NURTH ALEUii~N SHELF SALE ts
5 PERCENT CASE
ESTIMATED E"PLOYHENT EXPLORATION PftASE lHAN-HONTitSI
AIRCR~FTIVESSELS SHOnE BI\SES TOTAL AVERAGE
(J~ANSPOtTI\TIDHI (Hl'HNGI HA N-H ON TitS HUNTHLY EHPLOYHENT
l. 86 r, 3&0 7-JB!J &t5
lr:J&I) l&ll 1lr993 999
lrD&O 3&0 1lr993 999
lrO&J 3&0 llr993 999
2,. '• 7 2 3&0 9r&90 607
--,
l
REPORT DATE 1 /16/0i PC~ CS4i1
OCS EMPLOYMENT, HIGH FIND (5% PROBABILITY) CASE
(Continued)
NORTH .LEUti•N SHELF s•LE 75
5 PERCENT CASE
ESTiH.TEO Ellf'LOYHENT CONSTI'UCTI0'-1 PllASE <HAN-HONTHS)
YEAR
'9 !l '•
19115
1 Hl6
1967
1 ;nlo
1'18 9
t 9 ~ l)
U?1
}gQ2
N
lD
0
PLfiTI'"ORH
INHALLATION
12~735
2~.197
3H 11 t
29~291
21J ~ 376
) ~I)? 4
SIIO~E · PI PEL! NE
IJfiS~ CONStRUCT ION
1r 07 0
2·2~4
1. 87 0
3. 4 7 3
, .. 024
r---
l ' !
OTL LNG
TERMINAL TERHJNfiL
i. 32 0 ltr070
3r520 ltr\93
3· 520 llrl93
2•640 lr\23
i~3Ztl .. 4 rli1 0
TOTAL
HAN-MONTHS
1r670
2r244
1r870
12·735
33r06!)
51•8411
41 .. 00'•
30.139
11lr46ft
AVEnAGE
MONTHLY EHPLOYHENT
155
16 7
155
1r0 61
2·755
4 d20
3r667
2·5 tl
oiJ
,..----.,
I
REPORT DATE 10/l&16i
HAR
19!37
1 960
1'18 9
\~90
19'11
19 92
1'19 5
\ ~ 9 '•
1995
1996
D97
1990
199 9 ·zooo
2001
21102
2003
2 OOio
2005
2006
2007
.... ~on
t.ei)09
1-f.") 1 ()
2J 11
2Jl 2
21H 3
20\4
2015
2lll6
2!117
2D18
2ll9
2()20
OEVELOPI-IENT
OfllltiNG
011 IHNG >
2n.263
21·2&3
2Br350
2lr263
1flrlo15
6. 6 33
t.o8o
t:4'•0
~··&80
Ji'• 68 0
~·680
iJ,&86
~··660
~.6f!O
lr680
il1
, 6B 0
1:r680
ii',&BO
1.:· 660
t .• 600 t:. 660
1,'. 660
l.r660
f,£,8o
1.'· 660 t.&oo·
1:.680
L.&ao
l:• 6 6 0
il loO
640
6'• 0
IIIRClllfTI
VESSELS
<TRIInP)
70!1
b77)
3r1£16
~~246
~ • 95 Ci
,, • 95&
z,,,re
2.i.7s
~·'·73
~. 476
2r47!1
2.;,75
~, 473
;!.;1,76-
~·476
2. I, 7 6
2rlt70
~.;,;~
2r476
~, 4 73
~.476
~, ,, 7 s
2rlt76
~, 4 7 !I
~.476
~.478
~·476
~;i.ts
~·H!I z,t,ts
~.,,n
t.t,tc,
1r415
L. 416
rJ 0·~-iJ.1P~NT~GH l. _, ... D (L . .JROBl._UIT,C, _J\SEL-:J
(Continued)
~ORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE 75
5 PERCENT CASE
ESTi~~TED EMPLOY~ENT DEVELOPMENT/PRODUCTION PHASE CHIIN-HONTHS)
SHORE
i311SES
CHHIING>
HEIIOQTRS
(HPONG)
36 0 13
OIL
TERMINAL
(TRIINSP>
360 26 2·040
360 125· 3r060
360 256 4r000
3&Q 1, 1'• 4rOUO
360 552 ltr080
360 638 4rOEO
360 697 4·060
3&1) 697 4 rOEQ
j&o 697 4r060
360 697 4rOEO
LNG
TERHI NIIL
(TRIINSP)
3 ii 0 --. 6 9 7 ---·--· . I, , 0 6 6 ........ ..
2·400
3.600
4r600
1, 80 0
1, BO 0
4r801}
1, BO 0
4rBOO
4 r.BOO
4, eo o i,, 60 0
4•000
1,. 000
4rBOO
t., BOO
4r800
4r800
4r600
4·800
1, • B 0 0
4, BOO
4rBOO
4•600
4r600
4r600
,, , 60 0
i,,IJoti
4rBOO
;,.aoo
4, 61) 0
1,, 80 0
360 697 4r080
3Gb &9t i,,ba6
360 &97 4r060
j&l) ... -6 9 i -4, 6 B ij
360 697 4r980
3£,0 ---£.-97" 4r0f0
360 697 4r060
361) 697 4r0EI}
360 697 4r080
360 697 4rOEO
360 697 4r000
3 6 0 ------- -.... -G 9 f----.. -4 ~ 0 B 0
360 6 97 4 .oco . ji;6 .... ----·---£,97-----···--· 4~686
360 697 4·060 j&o -··-&?t ;,~oao
360 697 1,,oeo t !i i} ---11, ~· . --
181)
180
31t 9
149.
PRODUCTION
OPERATIONS
( H IN I NG)
2, 0 91t
7·234
l3r021
17•361
20·255
20•255
20·255
20·255
20·255
20.255
20·255
20.255
20,255
20~255
20, 2 55
20·255
20, 2 55
20·255
20,2 55
20• ?.55
20·255
20,255
20r255
21), 255
20•255
20·255
20r255
20, 2 55
20,255
26.255
20·255
&~804
6r604
t;.ao4
TO Till
HAN-MONTHS
3r602
9,1)1)1,
37·843
47·698
60.706
55· 970 '•6· B02
41·156
33·691
34.110
34r350
34r350
34d50
34.356
34,350
31.,350
34d50
31 .. 350
34·350
34d50
34 d50
31,350
34r350
34.350
34d50
34d50
34d50
J4,j5o
31.,350
34 .. 35o ·
34r350
iit~j69
14.369
ii .. 389
I --~
'
IIVER~GE
HONTHLY
EHPLCYI'ENT
300
750
3r153
3·974
5·058
4~&64
3·900
3·429
2r807
2•B42
2. eez
2·862
2·1!62 2.e6z
2ri!E2
2•B62
2·862
2 .. B62
2·862
2·862
2rB62
2ri!E2
2rBE2
2rBE2
2· 86~ ·-
2· eE2
2·862
2.662
2rB62
2~8 62
2rB62 -i~i99---
1.199
\,199
Rt:PrJRT DArt.
YEAR
1YB4
1!J B 5
UB&
U07
1 ~ 06
191:19
1910
1911
\992
1993
1994
1995
1:19 &
UH
1:1 '1 fl
l 99 9
2BIJU
201Jl
201}2
2003
2004
~()05
2J )6
~307
~))6
2()09
20\1)
21)11
2012
21)13
21)14
2)15
2ll t.
2)17
2Jl1J
2Jl9
2021)
I
I
I . .
lrll&/81
i
'
IMINING
! 5. 51} 4
]0.933
lo·9j3
i11o027
l14o4'52 ~4.6'57
I ~?·0\0
ft9o010
~2·13'•
~5·4'·4
29·800 ~2· 333
22o752
~2· 912
r-2.992
22o992
22.??2
~2.992 I •
~2.992
22·992 I·
22. 992
22.992
22.992
22.992
I
22· 992
22.992
22.992
22.992
?2· 992
22r992
~2.992
22r992
22.992
22.992
i 8.i73
6·17 3
e.i73
rr:
i
rcN CS4 n
CONSTI!UCTION
1• B 71)
z. 241t
lr070
12.735
3 3r 0&0
51o81t8
44.004
3:Jrl39
tiJ.i,fii,
U~~ tM~LUYMtNI, HlbH tlNU \~~ ~KU~M~!L!IYJ ~M~t
(Continued)
NORTH ALEUTIAN SIIELF SALE 75
5 PERCENT CASE
SU~Hi~~ tit OIR~CT E~PLriYHENT (HAN-HUNTHSl
TRANSPORTATION TOTAL
lo884 9•250
3· 0&0 l'tr237
j. 1)61) l3o8&3
3r7&8 20· 330
4r242 51• 754
3rl8& 89· &91
8o&88 91• 702
llr&l& 90· 81t5
ij~ 83& &&.454
11· 35f 4&.802
1 i. 35 8 '• i. 158
11• 35 e 33.&91
i1rJ5e 3'••liO
llr358 34·350 .... -···-··---u.Ha··-3i,. j5o
11 r35 8 34r350
i lr 35 8 34. j5o
11 r35 8 34r350
ii .. Jse 34• j5o
pr35~ .. .... 34·350
11• 35 E 31tr 350
11· 35 8 .34o350
11. 35 e 34· 350
11· 35 8 34·350
1i. js 8 341'350
lld58 34.350
i 1 ~ 35 8 34r350
11• 35 8 34,.350 ... ii. j5 0. 34•350
11. 35 e 34 .. 350
i i .Js e 34.j5o
11• 35 E 34·350
itd5ii 31,. jsci
11 ~ 35 e 31·· 350
&~21& i4r309
6· 21 & 14•389
r,. 2i 6 14.389
TU TAL
MONTIILY EMPLOYMENT
771
t.t8&
lrl55
2r3&0
4r 312
7olt74
7. & '• 1
7r570
'5r537
3r 900
3. 429
2r81l7
2r842
2· e&2 z,. 8&2
2·0&2
2r8&2
2. 8&2
2r0&2
2· 862
2· e6 2
2· 8&2
2r862
2·862
2.e62
2·862
2·862
2r862
2r8&2
2r8&2
2·8&2
2· 862
2 .8&2
2·862
i.i99
1 .. 199
i.i99
;---, ' )
itErllRT 01\ Ti: 1
y ll\ H
1~04
1;1 ~:;
1go6
t:J [17
\~61)
N
1..0 w
• 1 '• '•
rl 4 -~
1:-:-:
PCN C540J NOll Ht 1\LEUT I 1\N Sit ELF SALE 75
ALTERNATIVE IV
ESTIMATED EHPLIIYHENT EXPLORATION PIIASE <HAN-HONTIISJ
Al~C~AFT/VE55F.LS
<TlANSPOlTATION)
11)~
1·'·1f;
1. 60 4
1. 60 '•
7:1~
SIHIRE flA SES
<HINHIG)
.160
~6 0
360
HO
360
TOTAL
HI\N-HONTflS
2r16.5
s. 205
7. 31Je
1. 3 06
2· 211
AVERAGE
HONTitl Y EHPLO YHENT
231
'• 3 3
615
615
16lt
REP~RT DATE 10/16/0i
PLATFOHM
YE All INSTALLATION
1984
1965
BBb r, .. J&B
19fl7 15:r 2!12
1!1 Btl z 4 !•19 7
19119 11oi•009
1990 z.,st,7
1991
I'C~ CS41J
OCS EMPLOYMENT, ALTERNATIVE 4 CASE
(Continued)
NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE 75
ALTERNH I VE H
E~TI~~TtU EHPLOYHENT tu~si~UCTION PHASE (HAN-HONtHSl
SHO~E Pii'ELINE ()JL
BAS~ CONSTRUCTION TERMINAL
9Uo
~z ~· .. ·•· -·· ····· ··-·
924
2• <ni 41o0
2•921 t • tOO
41o0
··--··· ·········· ... 4lt0
LNG
TEHHINAL
. --··· ········-··-··
i~2J6
2.475
i.ZJB
_1._238
TOTAL
HAN-MONTHS
924
-92 ,,
7.292
15•202
2B.79G
2 o. 50 5
'•·225
t.G 7B
AVER~GE
MONT IlLY EHPLO YHENT
77
77
&07
1·273
2·399
1•70B
352
139
-t j
REPGRT DATE 1011&/Bi
DE'IELPPHfNT AI llCl ArT/
DfllLL I NG VESSELS
Yf. fd'l CHINJNGJ CTRA,.SPJ
196& 354
l'1 !17 1·0&2
191.18 ~.,,so z p l2 4
1909 1Br9110 ~·'·76
\'190 3.2&9 ~.478
1991 7r1JB8 1r41&
1))92 "5.318 ~·'•1&
1)) 9 3 3 !)I) 1r41&
1994 720 1r1ol&
B95 840 1r41&
199& 8 '• 0 1·41&
UH 840 1r41&
19911 8'•0 1· 41 &
t 99.9 oi.o i.i,if,
ZO!lll 8'• t) 1r41&
2001 840 i.4i:.
21)02 840 1 • r, 1 &
2003 040 i~i.ii;
21)04 840 1r41&
~O:J5 840 i.i.t&
ZO:>G 840 1r4l&
20:>7 8 '• 0 1rlo1&
~JJB 480 7JB
UID09 i.B<i 106
201() 480 7:>!J
2i>1i ;.eo '. tiJ6
2012 480 7)8
2Di3 480 7~8
2014 480 70!1
r--1 r---1 r---1 ,.------, ,-----,--, 4 ' j • · .:~CS l._, .. ·i-OYfl.,._,,.,~, A' .... , .... -,<NAl .. , . ._. b ..... ._
'(Continued)
NORTil ALEUTIAN SIIELF SALE 75
ALTERNATIVE IV
EStJM~t~o EHPLti~HtNf OEVELOPHENT/PROOUCTION PH~SE CH~~-HONTHSJ
Sfl URE UIL
HASE S llEAOQTR S TEIHIINAL
CHININGJ CI1ININGJ CTRANSI'J
3&0
36 0 13
360 2& 720
3!)1) 1 18 1r0£:0
3&0 243. 1. 4 ,, 0
3&0 3 4 I! i. 4 4 t)
3&0 388 1. 4 t,o
3&0 38 e 1. 4 40
36 0 388 1· '• 4 0
360 368 lri.40
360 388 t .. 4 4 0
ji;(j ---' "j88 i.i.i.o
360 368 lr 4 4 0
360 568 i.i.i,6
3&0 J8e 1r440
ji; 0 -.. --.. ·-388 t;i,i,i)
361} 38 l' lr440
j6o j8 ii ·-·· 1r440
36 f) 38e 1r 4 '•0
3&0 J88 lr440
160 194
i86 194
180 194 ·iao ----i9 ;.------
180 194
· i e il .... i 94""'
180 t94
. -··. -~ ... " ... -..
LNG
TERMINAL
CTR t.NSP)
9&0
1. 41,0
lr 920
lr 920
1· 920
lr 92 0
1. 92 0
1. 920
lr 92 0
i. 920
1· 920
i. 9Z 0
lr 920
i. 920
lr ?2 0
lr 92 0
1r920
lr 920
lr-921)
i. 92 0
1. 920
i. 92 0
lr 920
i. 92 6
1r 92 0
PRODUCT I IJN
OPERATIONS
CHININGJ
1·'•'•7
t,. Jl,()
8•&81
10·127
10rl27
10·127
10r127
10.127
10r127
11lr127
10r127
11lr127
Hlrl27 ,,
io. iv
10·127
lOr i27
10. 12 7
to. i 2 7
10.127
10r127
11lr127
10r127
2•916
2~ 916
2. 916
~. 9i&
2•916
2. 9 i6
2• 91&
TOTAL
HAN-MONTHS
1r801
5r402
20·&15
31·870
22•940
21·&29
20•824
15.971
16.371
1&r491
16r491
1 6· 4 91
16r491
i6.i.9i
16·'•91
l6ri.9i
16r491
16r49i
l6r491
1&r1o91
16r491
i6.49t
6· 398
6rj98
&r39B
&rJ98
&rJ 98
Grj96
&rJ98
l.
AVERAGE
HONl~LY
EMPLOYMENT
150
450
lr 7 17
2r&5&
1r911
1r002
1r735
1.330
1r364
1.374
1. 374
1r 374
1.374
i.37i. .......... ·-··· ··--·---·-·---
lr 374
i. 31;,
1rJ74
lrJ74
~· 37'• 1· 374
1. 37 4
1. J7 4
533
533
533 533.
53 3
533
533
REPJRT 01\T'-PC~ CS43J
YEA fl :::ONHRiJ::TION
1984 924
1965 924
\9BG 7•292
1 9 !!7 9. e '• 4 l>r2B2
19!JB \9r9?4 2Br79G
19£'9 9· 4ll I} 2().505
1990 11lr762 '•. 225
1H1 17. G9 3 1· &Te
19 92 iG.041l
U93 11·195
U94 11.59 5
1995 11.715
1HG 11 .. 715
1:19 7 1. 7\5
i998 i. 7i 5
\999 \1·715
2 t)l)t) 11.715
2()!)1 llr715
2:JJZ li.715
2:103 11·715
2JJ4 llr715
ZtJ05 llr715
~OOG \1•7\5
1)1)7 llr715
~0()8 3.77 0
2()1)9 3. 7 711
2010 3· 77 0
2Jl1 3r17 0
2t112 3. 7 i 0
2J13 3r770
Z()i4 j. tt 0
r--1 •• ' J
OCS EMPLOYMENT, ALTERNATIVE 4 CASE
(Continued)
NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF 51\LE 75
fiLTERNfiTIVE IV
SUHHo\RY OF DIRECT EI'IPLOYHENT (HI\N-HONTIISl
TUTI\L
TRANSPORUTION TOT ltl HONTIIL Y E HI'L U YHENT
70 B 3. 707 3tH!
1• 41 G G. 129 510
2·238 1Gr461 1-373
2• 94 G 28.072 2·339
2·832 51·G22 4. 30 1
2• 47 E 52.383 4.JG5
4r15E 2 7rlG5 2•263
3. 9 3G 23.307 1· 94 2
4. 776 20• 62'• lr735
4·77G 15.971 1. 330
,,. 77G 1Gd71 tr3Git
4.77& 1Gr491 1· 374
4• 77 G 16.491 1· 37 4
4r77& 1Gr491 1· 37 4 -... -·-· -·-·-····-·--~ 4. 77£, iG.49i i.371t
4r77& 1&· '•91 1· 37 4
4 • 77 G 1Gr491 i. 37 4
4r77b 1&·49\ \r37ft
i, • it G i&. 491 i. J71t
,,. 77G 1G·'•91 ,. 37 4
4·77b 1Gr491 i-374
4r77G 16.491 .t. 37ft
4·77& 1Gr491 1 .. 37 4
4 • 77 G l G. 4 91 lr 37 4
2• GZ 8 G• 3 96 533
2·62€ &. 398 533
2·&28 &.398 533
2r&2l: r,, 39 B 533
2·&28 G.396 533
2• &Z 8 r,. 398 533
2·G26 Gr 398 53j
HEPORT IJAH l'U0f./fll
Dill LL l'NG 111 GS
YUR (fll:i'UNGJ
1964 :z, 85.13
1 ';185 s. 715
1913& &·287
1Y87 '5. 715
19fl8 '1·715
'·
:-l r-l TABLE 142. r-Jr::Jr-J~C"""Jr:-Jc-Jr-:J OCS EMPLOYMENT, MEAN BASE CASE WITH OFFSHORE LOADING
PCtl C ;1, 00 NO~T~ ALEUT1~N ~HELF SALE 7~
I' U II B \ .H •: \ <; <: -Dr F ; II 0 'H:': L IJ ~ D 1 N t:
ESTI~ATEJ EMPLOYMENT fYPLD~~rra~ PHASE (~AN·I'C~THSJ
Al f\ Ch ~F Tl VE3SI:LS ~IW R [ 8 \ ~ E 5 TliTAL AVERAGE
nr. AN~P Ui1 H T 1 U~ J Oll•l PIG J NA~-Hl:NTfl:) IW~TI'LY J:HPLOYI!ENT
.\. 2 9 (, 360 4·511• 376
2·1<12. HI! 1:. 54i 712
2.472 360 9·11.9 759
2. 4 7 <. ~(j(l c. j4l 712
708 3&C <: .19 3 231
REPORT OATl 2/0P/et
YEAR
19i.l ~
1Y85
19'36
1'J87
19116
1989
199U
1191
PlllrFORP.:
IU5TALlATIOtl
I
I
I
1L73s
1Yr829
2~.\97
20,37 6
5.616
rr-J
I
I
PCN C51tl0
OCS EMPLOYMENT, MEAN BASE CASE WITH OFFSHORE LOADING
(Continued)
~OATH ALEUTI~N SHELF SALE 75
l'f.AN tl:\5( CASE -UFI"SHORE LOADING
ESTIHATED E~PLOYHENT CONSTkUCTIO~ PHASE (MA~-~(~THSl
SHORE PIPELINE OIL LNG TOTAL AVEiiAH
eASt: CONSTRUCT ION T£fi!1 I fiAL TEfltH Nl\l HAN-MOIITI'S l'£iNTHLY EHFLOHENl
924 '1£~ 77
92~ 92~ 77
92~ 1Jr659 1 r 138
17re29 1, 4f5
24r197 2·016
87 8 21,254 1,171
Sr6H ltE8
r-J r-: rTJ rn r-l :-l rJ 0·--~ lt1Pik·--'' iENTQAN C.·.·.:.f Cf::J\•/IT(, liFShv"'-J LOJ.. ..... ~G l"l lJ r--J ,---:1
121•1e1a1
(Continued)
REPORT DATE I' err c ~,, 2•1 NORTH ALEUTIAN SHELF SALE 75
H. AN 8~SE CAS£ -UFF SHOR£ L0401NG
ESTII'ATED Et-IPLO H1ENT O[VELOPMENT/PKODUCTIG~ PI'~ <;E OIAN-I'ONHS J
DEVLLOfMENT AIRC'li\FT/ SHORE OIL LNG FRGOUCTICN AVHHE
DHILLING VESSEL') i:lASES 11EAOQTR~ rEilHINAL TEillo'II'iAL I:PERo\Tl ONS 101AL MGI'Ili·U
YEAR (lo'!NltlGl (Tf\ANSPJ <MINJNGJ <III'Hf\GJ <T l<A NSf) <Tii4NSPl (11Pilt\GJ I'H-t'lli'I'HS EI4FLCHEI\1
1986 7'Ja 2r89~ \!rli02 !H
19 81 lr411i '5r71J7 1 7r203 ecc
19118 1o;. 631 2·'·78 360 10·127 23r5H 1 rHE
19139 13, :101) 3,1 e & 31ii'J 1 ! 13.021 !Srt.EO £r9~E
1990 llr813 3·16& 360 2€ 13 ·021 28r406 c.~ E7
19H Or 26 9 1 riTO 3 60 11 c 13r021 23·5~( 1, s € 1
1992 6~ 38 3 lr770 3&0 22~ 13riJ21 2lr758 1, el ~
t9n 4110 1 r77Q 31iC 316 13.1)21 i~r941 J, ~ (f
1H4 81,0 1, 770 360 375 13r021 ier36E J , ~ E ~
199S 1.oeo l • 7 7 ') 3Ga 375 l3r021 1Erli06 1rH ~
1996 1 t. I) C I) 1. 7711 360 375 13r021 16r606 lr:!E!
1H7 1 ~ 08 0 t.7 70 360 n; l3r021 l6r606 1r!E~
1995 t•oeo 1 • 7 7 ,, 360 3 7 ~ 13 ·021 llir606 1 .. !E!
1H9 1o080 1 ·17 0 3GO 375 n .o2t 1ErGOE 1•:!£!
2000 1rC80 1 ·771 3GI) 37~ 13•1121 1b60E 1" ~ E ~
2001 1. 08 0 1. 77 0 3G 0 HS J3 .o2t 16 .. 606 1·!E!
2002 Ho8o 1 • 7 7u 3GI) 375 13riJ21 16·606 1• H ~
2003 l~OliO 1 • 770 360 H; 13·021 lE•IiOE 1 .. H!
2004 1 ·• 0130 1, 77:) 360 375 13•021 If .. GO 6 1rH ~
21)1)5 t.t)!.lll 1. 7 7 0 360 HS 13.02 1 H•GOE 1 r3E!
21)1)G 600 1. 0&2 11:0 1!!8 3P 88~ IS•S18 ~s~ 21)1)7 GO II 1.o&2 lt!f) lE f J,8ee 5 .. 9le ltS3
rg,t) ,, 8 GOO L,. 0&2 180 tee 3·888 5·918 4S~ ~)1)9 GOO 1 r0&2 tel) Hf 3r8ef 5r918 4S~
2010 · GOO 1 • 062 180 1 e e 3·688 5·916 It 5!
20 11 600 1 ·•)li 2 1 e., Hf 3.8ef s .. 91 e Its~
2012 600 1.osz 18 0 1 E l! 3r888 s. 911! ~S!
2013 GOO 1r062 180 188 3 .. eee s .. 91 e It 5 ~
2014 GOO 1.052 180 tBe 3·886 5•916 4 s ~
HCPORT DATl 12/0P/~1
'IE. AI< M 1 N 1 'I(; Cl· ~~.:; T HIC T JIJ~·~
l 'H!4 ~. 21. e 9 ('t,
1\il:lS !J. 1)7 5 '} 24
19% ·~. 54 1 l.h(j')'}
19 8i 11.•!!62 F ..:32?
19o d ?3r193 ~4rl'H
D~9 32r~'?" 21,254
l'nl) z:;,z:>.o 5rb1t
1'J? 1 21.762
l ~ 'J2 1~r9EE
t 913 Url.71
1 :1'? 4 1·4r596
1'1'1~ 14rl:l31J
1H6 1~·836
19 'H 1 1,.()3 (,
19'?ii 14•816
19H 14riiH>
20110 11 .. a 3 o
20•) 1 1' .. e3c
201)2 ll .. l\36
20rl J l4.f36
201)1, 14r:!3t
200 5 14.836
zoo (j 4•B'i6
~~)1 4r656
~OOo l,.(j'J6
20J') 4r8'i6
2«ll u 4rl:3b
20tl 4r85b
21112 '"f. 56
2013 ~t.e?r,
2:.11" 4, 8'5 &
U~~ ~M~LUTMt~l, MtA~ ~A~t ~A~t WliH U~~~HUKt LUAUlNb
(Continued)
~URTH ~LEUTJAN ~~ELF S~LE 75
l't..AN ~,.:.E C1\~t;. -(rf 51fiJ,If: lo.HIUINr;
5UIHI.\EY (f Lilr;!:'CT El FLOYHE~T ti'AI\-l'OTHn
TC 1 Al
TH Af\)P'J:• 1 hT! (II, TOTAL H Cl\ li'L'r E!'I'LC'rHOT
, , ;: 'If: s, 4 3 e i 453
? , '• 7 ;_· 9. ,, it 11:9
5r\1'() 2€.31'0 2rl98
.l, f -~ t 33r579 !r79€
:1, l ~ t ~1Jr51E 4r214
3,186 56,734 4,728
:; , 1 :;1 t. 3'•·02! '~ E35
1, n e 2 3r 5 J 2 1r S 6 1
1, 7 7 0 2lo7SO 1 r E 1 3
1. 77 0 1'5rS47 1 r321J
1, 7 711 l!ir3t6 1. !6 3
1r77() tr:.EOo lr! e 3
I , 7 7 II 16rEIJ6 t.! 1: 3
1, 7 70 Hrli06 t. J e3
1,; n-1 Er 61l!i t.! e 3
1r770 Hr606 1!~1!3
lri'7( l!ir6C6 1 !€3
1rl7 0 l6r606 ~~~83
lr 7H 16r6C6 lr383
1, 77 C) lErEC6 1. 3B 3
1r770 tErfiOG t. ~8 3
lri711 1Er606 1.! e 3
1 • 06 (: Sr~lB ~93
1, ''n 2 5. 9 te ~93
lrcJ6c s. ne 493
lr!)fi(: s. ~ 18 '53
1.on2 :. st e ~93
lrr)&(: :.sla 1 ~ 9 3
I , t)f> <:: 5.9 tE 493
1. or,;. s. 918 ~93
1· 1)62 s. 9 te ~93
rn
lJ
FEPnRT ~A~l 1~/~0/Rt
Yl4H
1 H4
1 \1 ,] 'S
l?Bo
1\ln
11/J:J
w
0
I-'
O:t ILL I •;u I<IGS
l~ili:lf-iGl
: • 7 1 '5
1,. t, 2?
~.144
'5. lft 4
1 • 1 4 ~
f'Cf~ C <-4'l0 NUR Ttl ~.LE lJ Tl •\:; .SH[U :·AU: 7 5
t1LH.!l'lU J'IF i~ -OFF'iiiQ:;c: LliAL'ING
}llltl I Jr-::>Hl
[3TPlf\TPJ I::!H'l.,JYMCI\T [;.'PI_I]f;AJIDN Pllt\;;j[ CMAI\·M']I'\Tif3l
": ;: c" u i 1 v E ' ~ ~: u ;i H:H~ E '3" ~ t:!: Hrl"Al 1\Vf.HH[
( r:, t\ N'il' i)il i A f-l!Jrl) l :ij q L·lG) HN-rH.N IH5 t'l.!~ l Hl Y ~ MPLO HEN l
i' ,, i· HO £. ;e 3 ~H
\ • 4 , l; .l6 (J ~,. .~ 05 t, 3 3
1.(.\'4 Hr. { • Jes.: o15
1 p r.; ~. r, HC ; • 3 ~;; G\5
;<\ll 3&0 ~.:~11 1 f.'•
j
REPORT DATL 12/0e/61
YUii
1:1 J 4
1:1? '5
198&
19P7
\9~5
19119
19 '} ()
1-n 1
w
0
N
ru rror.H
I ~~ ~i I 1\ Lt n I 0 N
or 3&6
1;. 2f 2
?4·197
14 • 1)1) '}
5,1)()9
;uDftC
8 A ;f.
92.:.
'}2 4
12!.
HLitl<l'iHI!Vt '1-l.H.:>t Wlll"l UrJ".)J1UI~t LUHU!Irill
·(Continued)
NOfiTH ~LEUTI.\N SHELF nLE i5
~lT[ilNATI'/E IV -UFF'5110;1[ l(lAlJJNG
E1TJPATED EHPLQYMENT COK~T~UCTICN PHASE l~A~-~(NTHSJ
r'!fCLTNE
L. 'I :i :; ; r; u c T r u ~
J!L
TCh'U 1\AL
I. 'J G
i r:F ~~; ~L\L
924
924
1r2'i2
1'5·2~2
24rt'77
lltrP.f7
3r0f.9
AVHHEI
'CI\THLY EMFL~1~ENT
'77
rn
71
6'J7
lr273
;: •G 1 E
1·240
2';5
,----,
' J
r--'1
' j
tiC POUT OAH 12/0t/1:1 i'Cii c ;t, :!0
JE'IllUPMr:IIT II I :< •: '': \F i I
Uil ILL! NG ns:rL;
Ylllh (MiNl%1 {lhl\:l~Pl (!1
1?3b .)') '•
1 ':f ~ 7 l • () f•;:
]:;.i}d 1~ie5C 2, 1? :'•
1 fi) 9 UJdO!J 2. 4 7 '·
H 10 d•269 ~, 4..., i r:.
1H1 7. 1)\: [ lr41(,
1 ~ ':l i :, o3 1. e 1 • ~ 1 b
1•n J 3611 t.t,tG
1 'J ') t, ' l (l) I • r, 1 •)
1<J9S ' t 4•1 1 • 4 1 G
1 ;I '16 . 640 l ,t, 1 G
l'tH t 4 I) 1 •'• 1&
199:.> t: l.t) 1 ~ 41 s
1'1n 840 1·L.l6
2000 t:4() lr411o
2001 e~c 1 • ~ 16
21)1)2 641) l • It 16
200 3 540 1 • 41. b
21}1)4 ct.•l I ,t.t b
20•15 . 040 l ,I, 1 ,,
21)1)1) e 4•! I ,t,t;,
2 0 l}i' E 411 l ,. .~ \ [,
(NJ!ll) ' L. 80 ; •11:
~09 4()0 7/)i)
2 (J lL' tdiO F•c
2011 4 t• 0 7/)cl
?Ill 2 •a{· ;ri
21) 13 I, f!l 70
2U14 ' 1,,':1) 7rl
rJtKI'rJVt r---=.::>t r-:11 UlrJUKt~Uli'IJ
(Continued)
~onrH ·\l F.UT l AN : H ELF ;AU: 75
ALH:<N,\il~[ i v -tJFF ':HO•i( LU H: lNG
C:'l !IUt T'OiJ ['1 f'L U ~ !i[;l T ~L Hll:PI~t:H /PRG!1UC T I 0 PH ~S E 0~1\-HI\H!:: J
11u:n: O~L UlG P!lCCUCTIC:-1
A.E~ 11 r .. ~ •J (JT 1. ~ 1 [; 11; '·I AL rr:r.n~AL (f'f:Fr\ T ILIIS TOT~l
NiNiil t'lJ'nNGl (J!I\t.;Fl (TJ;AN~Pl O'li'-111\Gl ~~~N-I"ONTI-5
1 • I, 4 7 1•f01
4 • 3 41) 5·402
3E,r) e. Et: 1 21l•E15
3611 1 ~ 1iJ.127 31.ere
36r, <?f.. 1 <) • 1 2 7 21·2611
360 1 1 f. Hl.127 1 ~dO~
H•' :' •' t -~-10.127 17.464
361) J 1, e l!J. 1?. 7 12·611
3 (> (j H!~ tr''r127 1~·'J11
3611 3ff 11).127 13.131
360 3~~ 10.127 1' ~. 1.3 1
31i I) Hf 10.127 13.131
3b0 He 10.127 13.131
361) HE 1 •I • 1 2 7 1~.1~1
3b0 3de 11) .l 2 7 11 ~. , 3 1
3& ~· 'a e llld2i 1~.]31
3f, I) 3~e 10.127 1~.131
3&'! ~a~ 10.127 1~·131
3f,.O :~ ~3 ~ 10r1?7 1 h 131
361) He 11).127 1~·131
~(,I) 3ef 10 ·12 7 1~·131
3 f,() HP 10.127 n.u1
lfl) 1 9 4 2. 91E "· 47E 11' I) 1. 9.4 2·91E 1,,1,11)
1 e.~' 1 ' 4 2•91E t,,47f
HIJ 194 2•91E 4. 478
1 t< 'J 1 ~ 4 <'•'HE 4. 4 7 8
U~ll 1 9 4 2. 91E ". '· 7 p
l 0 ') 1 ~ 4 2 .c; 1E "• 478
AVEF~H
~'GIITH'
HPLCHHT
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4~1)
I .111
::.E~E
1.771
1 • 5 s l
1.4~~
l•C5C
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1 • 0 s 4
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'J'lo\ii :~ J ~:I :-l t· ·.:t .. /1'; :.,1;,; ~; (11'~
1'JP.4 2·07) 171,
1 ') lj J .., • 7"' ·; •2 ..
196(, &•?31 ·r,. L: '7:::
1. ')", i' ) ,. t l, '· l ~,. 't~ '-
1 9 1~ ~· '1.? • 9.., r, :: '•,. l q i
' '} :"J 29·'•'·''' 1.11 • i:l ,, 7
1:1 'HI 1r:..;~z ~ .. •1 rJ ')
19)1 :1 7 • b 'J 3
l : ·J ., .. (. JEr·j~t\
l 'J '}.., 1 l , 1 '} J
l:f l4 l'lr5'?5
1 9 '}" ,l1r7l)
199b •l.\r7l'j
l9H '1 1 • 7 1 5
19'H 11.n::;
1 ., '} '} 11r71:.
21Jilt) 11r715
2ll) 1 llri'l)
2002 llr715
zo.J 3 llril:J
.?II 04 1lr715
20)':> llril~
21)'1 & . ·11 r715
~1)1)7 11.11.5
~IJI)c 5r171)
201) ·~ 3r77ll
2ll ') 3ri7ll
21) 11 3, 7 7 0
201~ 3 # 7 7 (
·~o 13 3. 77 ()
2tll4 3, i7 (
ALTERNATIVE 4 CASE WITH OFFSHORE LOADING
(Continued)
N '1 :' T i I \ L E l: rT .\ ~ I I r. U AI_ r 7 •;
"L.TI."~-~~\[ l~F I~ -t)FI ihf.l,,r \.1l~ulNG
·~u.·t~\,\V GF ,;J:if'~;T FI:Pl~JO![/IT UA~-1 1 011<>
Hl.H
T It A :0, ; I' I] 10 T A i ) I] II lll1Al ror-. ll-ill £i~I'LO,Hf.:IIT
i' I) ~ 3r707 '30 e
1 •.. u, & • 1 z q ~ l II
:~, ?. J ·~ lfHhl 1 r3 73
.: , .: ~ t. ;:I', C'U 2·~3~
;: , t: ~ i r, 1, r.;:! ~ .s 1€
;.-.: , .'t 7 l 4&.765 ~,1f<;7
;',!Ill ('1.,329 £~C27
, , 4, (; 1 9. 1 1)9 1.~92
1, r,u 17r H 4 1r£55
l • '• l b ). Zd: 11 t•r.'50
lr •<1 b l3r011 1,11!: 4
lr 41! 13r1Jl lr094
1. u 16 l3r131 1rC;4
[,loU 13·131 1, 0 9 4
I, t, 1E 13r131 lr054
1r4lt; 13r1~1 1 , 0 9 4
, • 41 (. 13.13!. 1rC94
1, 4 h; 13r131 1 , I] c; t,
1. • r, 1 l 1.:!.131 lr094
I , •1 t 1.~.131 1rll94
lr 41( 13rl31 1rO'i4
lr;•1b 13·131 1r(]94
lr4ll 13.131 1r094
1, ·<1 6 l3r131 1.
1
cs4
701.' t.r418 373
711! 4r478 373
7ilt 4. ~ 7e !7 3
71) ! 4r418 373
7 1lc 4r4ii! Jn
7 I)~ 4r47e 1~73
; .lt; 4, 4 i'l} 373
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L
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Tryck, Nyman, and Hayes. 1979. Recorrunended Community Deve 1 opment
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307
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