HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA819\
~
)
i
I
:1
,I
ll
I
~-
D
.C
0
0
Technical Report
Number 78
Navarin Basin
Alaska~CS
Socioeconomic
Studies Program
Sponsor.
Bureau of Land.
Management
Alaska Outer
Continental
~ . Office
51~~~ .
·<~1
Statewide & Regional Demographic. & Economic
s.ystems lmp.acts Forecast
TheUnitedStates Department of the Interior was designated by the Outer
Continental Shelf (OCS} Lands Act of 1953 to carry out the majority of.
the Act's provisions for administering the mineral leasing and develop-
ment of offshore areas of the. United States under federal jurisdiction.
Within. the Department, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has the·
responsibility to meet requirements of the National Environmental Policy
Act of 1969 (NEPA) as well as,. other legislation and regulations dealing
with' the effects. of offshore· development. In Alaska, unique cultural
differences and climatic conditions. create a need for developing addi-
tional socioeconomic and environmental infonrultion to, improve OCS deci-·
sion making at all governmental levels. In fulfillment of its federal
responsibilities and with an awareness of these additional information
'needs,. the. BLM has. initiated several investigative programs, one of
whim is,. the Alaska, OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program (SESP).
The· Alaska OCS Socioeconomic: Studies Program is a· multi -year research
effort which attempts to predict and evaluate the effects of Alaska OCS
Petroleum Development upon the· physical, social, and economic environ-
ments within the state·. The overall methodology is. divided into three
broad research components... The first component identifies ·an alterna-
tive· set of assumptions regarding the· location, the nature, and the
timing; of: futur_e petroleum; events and related activities. In this
component, the program takes into account the particular· needs of the
pet·roleum industry and projects the human, technological, economic, and
environmental offshore and onshore development requirements of the
regional pet-roleum. industry.
The· second component focuses on: data gathering. that identifies those
quantifiable; and. qualifiable: facts by which OCS-induced· changes can be
assessed. The· critical community and regional components are identified
and evaluated~ Current endogenous, and exogenous sources of change and.
functional organization among different sectors of community and region-
al life are~ analyzed. Susceptible, community relationships, values,
activities·, and. processes also are included.
The· third research component. focuses on an evaluation of the· changes
that could occur due~· to the potential oil and gas development. Impact
evaluation· concentrates on:. an analysis· of the impacts at the sta~ewide,
regional, and local level.
In general,. program products are· sequentially arranged in accordance
with BLMt s proposed OCS lease· sale schedule, so that information is
timely to decisionmaking. Reports are: available through the National
Technical Information Service·, and the BLM has a limited number of
copies; available through the Alaska OCS Office. Inquiries. for informa-
tion, should be-directed to: Program Coordinator (COAR), Socioeconomic
Studies Program, Alaska OCS Office, P. 0. Box~ 1159, Anchorage, Alaska
99510 •.
II .
'"':",.
I )
I
i •
I
I
I
I
I
i
I
I
I
I
I
I
.I
I
.I
I
I
I
I
. ~
_ ...
h~
~-
='
~ -·
-
__...
TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 78 Contract No. AA851-CT1-30
SEP 9 1983
ALASKA RESOURCES LIBRARY
U.S. DEPT. OF INTERIOR
Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program
STATEWIDE AND CENSUS DIVISION
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS,
NAVARIN BASIN (SALE 83)
IMPACT ANALYSIS
Prepared for
Bureau of Land Management
Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Office
Prepared by
Gunnar Knapp, Ed Porter, and Brian Reeder
Institute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska
March, 1983
Document is available to the Public through
The National Technical Information Service
3285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, Virginia 22161
\-\D
a-.48-·S
~'-i
(}t;
V\O, ~~
rt,. d-
Alaska OCS SCciceconcmic Studies Program
Statewide and Census Division Demographic and Economic Systems,
Navarin Basin (Sale 83) Impacts Analysis
Prepared by
Gunnar Knapp, Ed Porter, and Brian Reeder
University of Alaska, Institute of Social and Economic Research
ii
' ,j
l )
[
L
r~
L
( I _ _~
r·~
,i
i__,
[
r-··
(
!
i,lo_..;
('·
L-
L
c
[
b
[j
r '----=
L
1 '
L~
r-·
L-
-i
i
~
=·
_,
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES .
LIST OF FIGURES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ABSTRACT ....
I. INTRODUCTION
II. STATEWIDE AND REGIONAL GROWTH: A HISTORICAL REVIEW
The Statewide Economy ...... .
The Aleutian Islands Census Division
III. METHODOLOGY ...
Introduction
The MAP Model
The SCIMP Model
IV. MODEL ASSUMPTIONS ..
MAP Model Assumptions
SCIMP Model Assumptions
OCS Impact Assumptions .
V. MAP MODEL STATEWIDE BASE CASE AND IMPACT PROJECTIONS
MAP Model Base Case Projections
MAP Model Impact Projections .
Conclusions ....... .
VI. SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
SCIMP Model Base Case Projections
SCIMP Model Impact Projections .
VII. LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL PROJECTIONS
REFERENCES
iii
v
XV
xvi i
xix
1
3
3
35
65
65
67
72
75
75
82
92
95
95
97
100
101
101
102
107
111
·-~· ___ ..... __ ~· __ ;_·-···----~:... -~---· -·------
APPENDIX A: MAP Model Statewide Base Case Projections A-1
APPENDIX B: MAP Model Impact Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1
APPENDIX C: MAP Model Impact Projections: Comparison
of Absolute Impacts by OCS Case ............ C-1
APPENDIX D: MAP Model Impact Projections: Comparison
of Percentage Impacts by OCS Case . . . . . . . . . . . D-1
APPENDIX E: SCIMP Model Base Case Projections for
Aleutian Islands .................... E-1
APPENDIX F: SCIMP Model Impact Projections for
Aleutian Islands ....... .
APPENDIX G: SCIMP Model Absolute Impact Projections
for Aleutian Islands by Case ...... .
APPENDIX H: SCIMP Model Percentage Impact Projections
for Aleutian Islands by Case
APPENDIX I: MAP Model Assumptions
. . . . . . . F-1
. . G-1
H-1
APPENDIX J: Sale 83 (Navarin Basin) Employment Assumptions
I-1
J-1
APPENDIX K: Aleutian Islands Bottomfishing Employment
Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1
APPENDIX L: Calculation of SCIMP Model Labor Force
Participation Rates .................. L-1
APPENDIX M: Navarin Basin State Property Tax Revenue
Assumptions ...................... M-1
iv
['
L
\'
l.
f
L '
(
L.
~~
r
r I .
\
i •
·~......._...
/' ( .
l!
r L~
l),
L
G
r:
h
c
r \~
L~
1 ,
fj,_j
L
-·
_::,
'
..
'::
\
.::1
.;.
. Value, of P'roducti on far Selected -Industries; Various
' , >'· ,years,, 1960-1979'-~-.....•.•...•...
2.
3:
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
::·----!-:,
··-;-·,
Civilian Emp~loyment, Unemployment. and Labor Force
1960, 1965, 1970-1978, by Broad Industry
Classification •...•...•..•....
Index of Seasonal Variation in Nonagricultural
Employment: Selected Years 1960-1978
Personal Income by Major Component: Alaska, Selected
Years, 1960-1978 .....•.
-.
Alaska Resident Adjusted Personal Income in Current
and Constant 1979 Dollars, 1960, 1965, and
1970-1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Distribution of Relative Wage Rates, by Industry, for
Alaska, Selected Years, 1965-1978 ....
Change in Real Average Monthly Wage, 1973-1976, Alaska
Rates of Change for the Anchorage and U.S. Consumer
Price Index, Selected Years, 1960-1981 ....
Alaska Population and Components of Change: 1965~1978
10. Alaska Population by Age, 1980
11. Catch and Value to Fishermen, Aleutian Islands Census
Division 1970 to 1976, Selected Years .....
12. Shellfish Harvest, Aleutian Islands Census Division,
1962, 1965-1976 ................ .
13. Shellfish Harvest, by Area, Selected Years 1962-1976
14. Residence of Boats and Gear License Holders Fishing
15.
16.
the Aleutians ............... .
Military and Related Federal-Civilian Employment and
Wages, Aleutian Islands Census Division, 1978
Average Civilian Monthly Employment Aleutian Islands
Census Division, 1965-1978 .......... .
y
6
12
14
19
21
23
26
28
32
33
36
37
38
40
45
47
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
Aleutian Islands Census Division Estimated Resident
and Nonresident Employment, 1978 ...... .
Aleutian Islands Census Division: Civilian Resident
Labor Force, Total Employment, and Unemployment
1970-1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Report of Labor Force 1978 Compiled by Bureau of Indian
Affairs, Anchorage Agency ........... .
Personal Income by Place of Residence: Aleutian Islands
Census Division, 1965-1978 ....
Aleutian Islands Personal Income, 1978, by Sector,
Components, and Geographic Disposition ....
Family Income: Number and Percent of Native and White
Families by Income Levels, Aleut Corporation Area
Aleutian Islands Civilian and Total Resident Population:
1960, 1970-1978 .... -...
Aleut Region Population by Community, 1977
Assumptions Used for MAP Model Runs .
SCIMP Model Resident Population Assumptions for 1980
Aleutian Islands 1980 Employment
Aleutian Islands 1980 Employment Assumptions Used
in Developing SCIMP Model Assumptions ....
SCIMP Model Base Case Resident Exogenous Employment
Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SCIMP Model Base Case Nonresident Exogenous
Employment Assumptions ....... .
Labor Force Participation Rate Assumptions for
SCIMP Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
vi
50
52
54
56
57
61
63
64
79
83
85
86
87
90
93
[·~
L
L
L
~-~/
L
r
[
,.,-.._
I
!
!.---'
~
L
L
c
[
L
[
f~
L-'
r L
r ,
I-
L
t
.....
1
~
~
"'"'
..
APPENDIX·A·Tables:·MAP·Model Statewide·Base Case-Projections
Table A. L Sum.11ary • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Table A.2. Population and_Components of Change ..•••.•
Table A~3. Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Table AA~ Real Personal -Income ••.••••.•••••.•
Table A.5. Real Wage Rates ~ • ~ ~ •• ~ •..•••.•••
Table A.6. State Government Revenues . . . . • • • • • • • •
Table A~7~ State Government-Expenditures ••.•••••••
Table A.a. Combined Fund Balance •••••••••.••.•
APPENDIX B·Tables:·MAP Model· Impact· Projections
Table B~l~
Table B~2.
Table B~3.
Table BA.
Table B~5~
Table B~6~
Table B.7.
Table B.S.
Table 8~9~
Table 8.10.
Table B~1l.
Table 8.12.
Table 8.13.
Table B.l4.
Table 8.15.
Table 8.16.
Table 8.17.
Table B. 18.
Table B.l9.
Table B.20.
Table 8.21.
~6 BBBL Case: Total Population ••••••
~6 B8BL Case: Basic Sector Employment ••••••
.6 BBBL Case: Services Sector Employment
~6 BBBL Case: Government Employment •••••••
~6 BB8L Case: Total Employment ~ • ~ ~
.6 BBBL Case: Real Personal Income
(Millions of 1982 $) •••.•••••
.6 B8BL Case: Real Per Capita Personal
Income (1982 $) • ~ ~ ~ ~ • ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
.6 BBBL Case: Basic Sector Real Wage
Rate (1982 $) ~ • ~ ~ •••• ~ •••
.6 BBBL Case: Services Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) •••••••••
.6-BBBL Case: Government Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) •••••••••
.6 BBBL Case: Total Real State Government
Revenues (Millions of 1982 $) ••••••
.6 BBBL Case: Total Real State Government
Expenditures (Millions of 1982 $) •••••
.6 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita State
Government Expenditures (1982 $) •••••
.6 BBBL Case: Real Combined Fund Balance
(Millions of 1982 $) • ~ •• ~ •• ~ •••
.6 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita Combined
Fund Balance (1982 $) •••• ~ ••••
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total
Population • ~ . ~ •.•••••••
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Basic
Sector Employment •••.••.•.•
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Services
Sector Employment • • • • • . • . . • • .••.•
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Government
Emp 1 oyment • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total
Emp 1 oyment . • • • • • . • • • • • • • .
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Personal
Income (Millions of 1982 $) •••..•••
vii
A-5
A-6
A-7
A-8
A-9
A-10
A-ll
A-12
B-5
8-6
B-7
B-8
B-9
B-10
B-11·
B-12
B-13 .
B-14
B-15
B-16
B-17
B-18
B-19
B-20
B-21
B-22
B-23
B-24
B-25
Table B~22.
Table B.23~
Table B.24.
Table B.25.
Table 8.26.
Table 8~27.
Table 8~28.
Table 8~29.
Table B~30.
Table B~31~
Table B~32.
Table B.33.
Table 8~34.
Table B.35.
Table 8.36.
Table 8.37.
Table 8~38.
Table 8.39.
Table 8.40.
Table 8.41.
Table 8.42.
Table 8.43.
Table 8.44.
Table B.45.
Table B.46.
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Per
Capita Personal Income (1982 $) •••••••••
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Basic Sector
Real Wage Rate (1982 $) •• ~ •••••••
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Services
Sector Real Wcrge Rate (1982 $) •• · ••••
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Government
Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Real
State Government Revenues (Millions of
1982 $) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ • ~ ~ ~ • ~ • ~ • ~ • • • • • •
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Real
State Government Expenditures (Millions
0 f 1 9 82 $ ) ~ • • • • • . • • • ~ . • • • . • • •
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Per
Capita State Government Expenditures
( 19 82 $) ~ ~ ~ ~ • ~ • ~ • • • • • • •
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Com-
bined Fund Balance (Millions of 1982 $)
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Per
Capita Permanent Fund Balance (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Population
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Basic Sector
Emp 1 oyment . ~ • . • • . • • • • • • •
1~2 BBBL Remote Case: Services ~ector
Emp 1 oyment . • • • • • • • • • • • ~ .
1 ~ 2 BBBL Remote Case: Government ·
Employment •••••••••••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Employment
1~2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Personal
Income (Millions of 1982 $) ~ • ~ ~ ~ •
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Per Capita
Personal Income (1982 $} ...... .
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Basic Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) ~ •••••••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Services Sector
Real Wage Rate (1982 $) •• -••••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Government Sector
Real Wage Rate (1982 $) •••••••••••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Real State
Government Revenues (Millions of 1982 $) ••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Real State
Government Expenditures (Millions of
1982 $) ••••••••••••••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Per Capita State
Government Expenditures (1982 $) ••••••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Combined Fund
Balance (Millions of 1982 $) ••••
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Per Capita
Permanent Fund Balance (1982 $) •
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Population ••.
viii
\' L,
[
B-26
B-27 r·
. -B-28 '('·
B-29 L
B-30 ~ '
B-31 r·
'L.o
B-32 r·~
l.
B-33
B-34 L B-35
B-36 r·
I
(----"
B-37 f·
B-38 \
B-39
('
B-40 l
B-41 [ 8-42
8-43 J-=
.J ......
B-44
B-45 -[
B-46 [
B-47
B-48 c
B-49 I '
B-50 L
t
L
[
..,
')
_\
-;1
t
· .. :•
/
7
2
\
---~~..,..;;...~----.--
Table B.47.
Table B.48.
Table 8.49.
Table 8.50.
Table 8.51~
Table 8.52.
Table 8.53~
Table s·.54~
Table 8~55.
Table 8.56~
Table B.57.
Table 8.58~
Table 8.59.
Table 8.60~
2~4 BBBL Case: Basic Sector Employment ••
2.4 BBBL Case: Services Sector Employment •
2.4 BBBL Case: Government Employment •.•.••
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Employment .••.
2.4 BBBL Case: Real Personal Income
(Millions of 1982 $) ••••••••••••••
2~4 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita Personal
Income (1982 $) •••••••• ~ ~ ~ •••
2.4 BBBL Case: Basic Sector Real Wage
Rate (1982 $) ••••••••••••••
2~4 BBBL Case: Services Sector Real Wage
Rate (1982 $) •• ~ •• ~ • ~ ••••••••
2.4 BBBL Case: Government Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) ••••••••••••
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Real State Government
Revenues (Millions of 1982 $) •••••••
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Real State Government
Expenditures (Millions of 1982 $) •••••
2A BBBL c-ase: Real Per Capita State
Government Expenditures (1982 $) ••••••
2~4 BBBL Case: Real Combined Fund Balance
(Millions of 1982 $) •••••••••••
2.4 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita Combined
Fund Balance (1982 $) •••••••••
APPENDIX C Tables: ·MAP·i"1odel·Absolute· Impact Projections
by· OCS ·Case·
Table C. 1.
Table C.2.
Table C.3.
Table C.4.
Table C.5.
Table ,. ,..
l..O.
Table C.7.
Table C.8.
Table C.9.
Table C.lO.
Table C. 11.
Table C. 12.
Table C. 13.
Absolute Impacts: Total Population •••••
Absolute Impacts: Basic Sector Employment •.
Absolute Impacts: Services Sector Employment
Absolute Impacts: Government Employment
Absolute Impacts: Total Employment ..••...
Absolute Impacts: Real Personal Income
(Millions of 1982 $) •••••••
Absolute Impacts: Real Per Capita
Personal Income (1982 $) ~ •. ~ •
Absolute Impacts: Basic Sector Real Wage
Rate (1982 $) • ~ ••••••• ~ •••••
Absolute Impacts: Services Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) • ~ •••••••••••••
Absolute Impacts: Government Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) ••.••.•••••••••
Absolute Impacts: Total Real State Government
Revenues (Millions of 1982 $) ••••••• ~
Absolute Impacts: Total Real State Government
Expenditures (Millions of 1982 $) ••••••••
Absolute Impacts: Real Per Capita State
Government Expenditures (1982 $)
ix
B-51
B-52
B-53
B-54
B-55
B-56
B-57
B-58
B-59
B-60
B-61
B-62
B-63
B-64
C-5
C-6
C-7
C-8
C-9
C-10
C-11
C-12
C-13
C-14
C-15
C-16
C-17
'-----.. ~.., _____ _: ______ -_:_·_;'::_ : .. :~-~~' --=-'"'--'~'----·-·-~·-···· .. --·... ---· --~·-------·
Table C. 14~ Absolute Impacts: Real Combined Fund Balance
(Millions of 1982 $) •••••••••••
Table C~15. Absolute Imp~cts: Real Per Capita Combined
Fund Balance (1982 $) •• ~ ••••••••
APPENDIX·D Tables: MAP·Model·Percentage· Impact· Projections
by·OCS Case
Table D~L
Table o·~2.
Table 0.3.
Table DA.
Table 0~5.
Table 0~6.
Table 0~7~
Table 0~8.
Table 0.9.
Table 0~10~
Table 0~11.
Table 0~12.
Table D. 13.
Table 0~14.
Table D. 15.
Percentage Impacts: Total Population ••••
Percentage Impacts: Basic Sector Employment •
Percentage Impacts: Services Sector
Emp 1 oyment ~ ~ ~ ~ • • • • • ~ • • • • • 8
Percentage Impacts: Government Employment •
Percentage Impacts: Total Employment •••
Percentage Impacts: Real Personal Income
(Millirins of 1982 $) ••••••• ~
Percentage Impacts: Real Per Capita
Personal Income (1982 $) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ••
Percentage Impacts: Basic Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) •••••••••••••
Percentage Impacts: Services Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $) ~ • ~ ~ ~ ~ •• ~
Percentaqe Impacts: Government Sector
Real Wag~ Rat~ (1982 $) ••• ~ •• ~ ~ ••
Percentage Impacts: Total Real State
Government Revenues (Millions of 1982 $) ••••
Percentage Impacts: Total Real State
Government Expenditures (Millions of
1982 $) • • • • • 8 ~ • • • • • • • •
Percentage Impacts: Real Per Capita State
Government Expenditures (1982 $) •••••
Percentage Impacts: Real Combined Fund
Balance (Millions of 1982 $) ~ •••
Percentage Impacts: Rea1 Per Capita
Combined Fund Balance (1982 $)
APPENDIX E Tables:·SCIMP Model Base·Case·Projections
Table E. 1.
Table E.2.
Table E.3.
Table E.4.
Population •••••.
Resident Employment •••
Nonresident Employment
Total Employment ~ •••
APPENDIX F Tables: SCIMP Model Impact·Projections·for
Aleutian· Islands
Table F. 1.
Table F.2.
Table F.3.
• 6 BBBL Case: Resident Population •
.6 BBBL Case: Enclave Population
.6 BBBL Case: Total Population
X
C-18
C-19
D-5
D-6
0-7
D-8
D-9
D-10
D-11
D-12
D-13
D-14
D-15
D-16
0-17
0-18
D-19
E-5
E-7
E-9
E-11
F-5
F-6
"f.:.7
[
c:
f~
[
[
r L,
r
~-~
r
I
L--
II' L
L
,0
L
f
.,
.--~
r~
1:::.
c
L
r
.. --· ' .
L
~~
L
[
,
..,
.,
,~
~
"'
.;:
"
Table F.4.
Table F~5~
Table F~6.
Table F.7.
Table F.8.
Table F~9~
Table F~lO~
Table F-~ 1 L
Table F~l2~
Table F. 13.
Table F~l4~
Table F ~ 15.
Table F~l6~
Table F~l7.
Table F.l8.
Table F~l9~
Table F.20.
Table F.21.
Table F.22.
Table F.23.
Table'F.24.
Table F.25.
Table Fo26~
Table F.27.
Table F.28.
Table F~29.
Table F.30.
Table F.31.
Table F.32.
______ ...__ ................... ~--· .. ---:-~---.:....., ----------~---·-----~---.
~6 BBBL Case: Total Resident Employment •••••
.6 BBBL Case: Basic Resident Employment ••
.6 BBBL Case: Services Employment •••
.6 BBBL Case: Government Employment • ~ .••••
~6 BBBL Case: Total Resident and Enclave
Employment . -. • • • • • · • • • • o •• •
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Resident
Population • ~ •• ~ .•••••••
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Enclave
Population • ~ •• ~ .••••.••••••••
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total
Population ~ ••••••••••••
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total
Resident Employment ~ ~
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Basic
Resident Employment • . • • • • o ~ •
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Services
Emp 1 oyment • • • • ~ • ~ • • • • • ~ • • • • • •
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Government
Emp 1 oymen t . . . . ·-. .. . . . . . . . . . . . .
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total
Resident and Enclave Employment .•. ~ •••..
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Resident Population
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Enclave Population
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Po~ulation ••••.
1~2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Resident
Employment • • • • ~ • ~ • • • • • • • • •
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Basic Resident
Employment ••• ~ .••.••.•.••
1~2 BBBL Remote Case: Services Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Government Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Resident
and Enclave Employment ••••••
2.4 BBBL Case: Resident Population
2.4 BBBL Case: Enclave Population ••
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Population .••.
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Resident Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Basic Resident Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Services Employment •••.
2~4 BBBL Case: Government Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Resident and Enclave
Emp 1 oyment • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
APPENDIX G·Tables:·SCIMP·Model Absolute· Impact· Projections;
by·OCS Case
Table G. 1.
Table G.2.
Table G.3.
Table G.4.
Absolute Impacts: Resident Population •• o •••
Absolute Impacts~ Enclave Population •••••.
Absolute Impacts: Total Population •
Absolute .Impacts: Total Resident Employment ••.
.xi
F-8
F-9
F-10
F-11
F-12
F-13
F-14
F-15
F-16
F-17
F-18
F-19
F-20
F -21
F-22
F-23
F-24
F-25
F-26
F-27
F-28
F-29
F-30
F-31
F-32
F-33
F-34
F-35
F-36
G-5
G-6
G-7
G-8
. . _ . nt Employment ._ .. •.
<'Table G~6. ··':AbsoTute> Impacts: Services: Employment ~ ....... -
·· <·Tab 1 e· G~T ... ·. AbsoJute Impacts.: ·Government Employment • • •
Table G~8~ · AbsaTute Impacts: Tatar Res.ident and Enclave . 'l;,'.,·:·:;~~~tJ~;}~;ii~}jK.--:;f~Z~·.' ~ : : ~ . : ; ; ...
APPENDIX· H· Tables:· SCIMP· Mode1· Percentage·· Impact· Projections;
By·OCS· Case· _ ... , , ,,u. ------------~-: .. ~:::· ,}~.-/~':,. -:· ;.· ::/~.~?:-~.--~: - .
Table H·~L
Table H~2~
Table Ho3.
Table HA~
Table H~S~
Table H~6~
Table H~7~
Table H~8~
Percentag~ Impacts: Resident Population •••••
Percentage Impacts: Enclave Population
Percentage Impacts: Total Population ••••
Percentage Impacts: Total Resident
Employment • • • ~ .. ... • • • • • • • •
Percentage Impacts: Basic Resident
Employment ~ •• ~ •••••••• o o •••••
Percentage Impacts: Services Employment ••
Percentage Impacts: Government Employment
Percentage Impacts: Total Resident and
Enc 1 ave Emp 1 oyment • • • • o • ~-• • • • • • • •
APPENDIX· I· Tab 1 es: · f.iAP ·Mode 1 ·Assumptions
Table r.L MAP Model~Exogenous Revenue Asiumptions •
Table I.2. MAP Model Exogenous Employment Categories •
Table 1.3~ Trans-Alaska Pipeline Employment_
Tabl:= L4.
Assumptions •.•.••.•.•...•••.••
Northwest Gas Pipeline Employment
Assumptions • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Table 1.5~ Prudhoe Bay Employment Assumptions • • • • • 0 •
Table I.6. Upper Cook Inlet Oil and Gas Employment
As-sumptions ~ ~ • • ~ ~ . • • • • • ~ • • • • • •
Table I.7. NPRA Employment Assumptions •.•••••••••
Table !.8. OCS Federal State Lease Sale Employment
Assumptions • o • • • • • • • • • •••••
Table I. 9. OCS Sale 55 (Gulf of Alaska) Employment
Assumptions .. ~ ••..•.•••••.•••.
Table· 1.10. OCS Sale 57 (Bering/Norton) Employment
Assumptions •.•.•...••••....••.
Table I.ll. OCS Sale 60 (Lower Cook Inlet) Employment
Assumptions ~ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Table 1.12~ OCS Sale 70 (St~ George) Employment
Assumptions o ~. • • • • • • • • ~ • •
Table 1.13. OCS Sale 71 (Beaufort Sea} Employment
Assumptions •••••• o •••••••
Table !.14. Beluga Coal Development Employment
Assumptions o • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Table I. 15. Red Dog Mine Employment Assumptions
Table I. 16. U.S.-Borax Employment Assumptions •••.••••
Table I. 17. Other Mining Employment Assumptions ••
xii
G-12
H-5
H-6
H-7
H-8
H-9
H-10
H-11
H-12
1-4
1-5
I-ll
I-12
I-13
1-14
I-15
I-16
I-17
I-18
I-19
I-20
I-21
I-22
I-23
I-24
I-25
r~i
-\ -~ ~ -.:/i r1
I· L
[
r· L
[
r
f'l
tv
r
I
'----'
.,~
t
L
t
t
~
l' L
r_.: t--
r-L
I .
I ~
L.
L
...,
-~·
-21
-"
-'
j
:2
-'
-C'
...
. ·-·-----_·_.; .:.. ___ __,_,~------·-·-~---·~· ·-·-· ,_
T:a:bTiie I-:JS.. .A,gri(ClJTI-:hur:aTI Empikoymemt .Assumptions ..•••
T,a:hl.e I .• T!L ;f'olre::s'-tr_y,, l.umb:er :and Pu1p Employment
-As5.umptt-:icarrs -~ ~ ~ -· ~ .. .~ .. ~ ~ . . • • • •
Tc:ble LZO-·C.ommerci.a1 F'i:shi:ng (Nonb:ottomf:i sh)
Employment .As:sumpti:ons . . • • • • .
Ta:b.le L2l. B:o·ttomfis:h ·Fis1ring Employment Assumptions ...••
Table LZ2.~ Hydroelectric P:roj ects Employment
Assumpti o ns ~ ~ ~ • . • • • . . • • • . •
Table LZ3. Feder·al Mil ft·ary Employment As.sumpt ions . •
Table 1...24. Federal Civilian Employment Assumptions • •
APPENDIX J Tables
Table J.l. OCS Employment Categories, as Provided by
OCS Office ~ ~ • ~ : •••••••••••
Table J • .2. OCS Employment Assumptions, by Job: .6
Bbbl Case • • : • • . ~ • • • • • •
Table J.3~ OCS Employment Assumptions, by Job: L2
Bbbl Cases ~ . ~ .• ~ •.•• ~ ~ ..••
Table J.4. OCS Employment Assumptions, by Job: 2~4
Bbbl Case • ~ • ~ : • . . • . • . • . • • .
Table J~S. Assumed Locations of Air and Marine Support
and Oil and LNG Terminal Employment, by Case
Table J.6. Employment Location Assumptions., by Job:
~ 6 Bbb 1 Case ~ . ~ . • . ~ • . . . • . - . •
Table J.7. Employment Location Assumptions, by Job:
1.2 Bbbl Road-Connected Case •.•••••
Table J . .B. Employment Location Assumptions, by Job:
1.2 Bbbl Remote Case : •. ~ •.••.•
Table J.9. Employment Location Assumptions, by Job:
2.4 Bbbl Case ~ ~ • ~ . ~ .•••..••••..
Table J. 10. Residency Assumptions for OCS Employment,
Sale 83 (Navarin Basin) ••••.•.••.
Table J. ll. ~~p Model Employment Inputs: .6 Bbb1 Case
Table J.12. MAP Model Employment Inputs: 1.2 Bbbl Case
Table J. 13. MAP Model Employment Inputs: 2.4 Bbbl Case
Table J. 14. SCIMP Model Direct Employment Inputs:
.6 Bbbl Case ••••••. ~ •.......
Table J.l5. SCIMP Model Direct Employment Inputs:
1.2 Bbbl Road-Connected Case ••••
Table J. 16. SCIMP Model Direct Employment Inputs:
1.2 Bbbl Remote Case .•••.•.•
Table J. 17. SCIMP Model Direct Employment Inputs:
2.4 Bbbl Case • • . . • • • • • . . .
xiii
I-26
I-27
I-28
I-29
I-30
I-31
I-32
J-3
J-4
J-6
J-8
J-10
J-11
J-12
J-13
J-14
J-15
J-17
J-18
J-19
J-20
J-21
J-22
J-23
APPENDIX·K·Tables
Table K.l. Bottomfish H~rvest Assumptions eoooeeooo K-3
Table K.2. Coefficient Assumptions for Bottomfish
Employment Calculations •.•• o •• o ••• o o K-4
Table K.3. Bottomfish Harvesting and Processing
Employment Assumptions eoooooo11•o••• K-5
APPENDIX L·Tables
Table L.l~ Calculation of Non-Native Labor Force •• ~ • • • L-1
APPENDIX·M·Tables
Table M~l •. Assumptions Used in Calculating Sale 83
(Navarin Basin) State Property Tax Revenues •
Table M~2. Assumed State Oil and Gas Property Taxes
Resulting from OCS Sale 83 (Navarin Basin)
xiv
M-2
M-3
1 t,
c
I'
L
f'
r -
L
r l"
f ~
L
r~
l_•
r-,
I , __
,~
t
L
t
t~
r b r,
[
I:
L
f I -
--~
[
-.
.,,
.• 1
~.
~
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
LIST OF FIGURES
Distribution of Wage and Salary Income, Alaska,
1965 and 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The MAP Statewide Model
Figure 3. The MAP Statewide Economic Model
XV
29
68
71
] J J J J l . ~ 1 J ·] ]· p.x
-,
-~
--,
~1
--~·····-···--·-·------··---.:... ___ , _____ -·· ·-··"'---4~~---:.-~ __ .......,__,___, __ . _: __ .. ~
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This study was prepaTed between June and-November of 1982 by
Gunnar Knapp, Ed Porter, and Sri an Reeder of the University of
A1aska 1 s Institute of Social and Economic Research. Gunnar Knapp
p~epared the SCIMP model projections and wrote most of the report. Ed
Porter and Brian Reeder prepared the MAP model projections. The
historical review was written for earlier ISER OCS reports and was
updated for this study. The report was typed by Cathi Dwyer and Darla
Siver, and assembled by Anna Williams.
We are grateful to Kevin Banks, Jim Sullivan, and Jack Heesch of
the Alaska OCS Office of the Minerals Management Service for their
suggestions.
_xy ii
.· ., f , __ J .----j j I ,_ J .] ] . ) J ] 'J J . -, J l J :-"···-,-.-'·-..
• ___ _,__ ---·: _____ ___.__~------· ------·--------~------· ___ ................. ___ • ,....._ :.-.~ ___ : •• !...:..:.;__,_ ._ .:..:~_,.--.:~ .~-. -·-~:·... • ....... ::~>-.;~~-~---~ .-.. ~~..::;:.a;:S-i.~r-:;.;;~;:.:.;:.
-,
-~
'
•
Ci
4
ABSTRACT
Tnis study examines economic and population impacts of the proposed
Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) petroleum development of the Navarin
Basin (Sale 83). The study begins with historical baseline analyses
of the population and economies of the State of A 1 as ka and the
Aleutian Islands. Next, base case projections of conditions in the
absence of OCS development are proposed. Subsequently, the impacts of
OCS development are examined. The projections were done using the MAP
and SCIMP models developed at the University of Alaska's Institute of
Social and Economic Research.
In the base case, statewide population increases to over 590 thousand
by the year 2010. In the 1. 2 Bbbl oil discovery case, the maximum
percentage impact upon statewide population is 3 percent, or 16,800,
in 1993. The Aleutian Islands' base case resident population is
predicted to rise from 3,654 in 1980 to 8,348 in 2000 due to growth in
the bottomfish industry. The maximum increase in population is 281,
or 4 percent, in 1996.
The maximum impact upon Aleutian Islands' resident employment is
12 percent (291) in 1996. The maximum impact upon Aleutian Islands'
nonresident or enclave employment is 45 percent (770) in 1989 during
the construction of OCS facilities.
xix
l ~1 ~l J ] J r ~ J J -J ] ' ) J J
-->
;1
_, __ , _ _:: _______ ~-~-------<__....:_..: . .:___:..:....._ __ :_.::_ ___ -·-:......-----·-__,_._·__:.~ -·
I. INTRODUCTION
This study discusses the economic and demographic effects of the
proposed Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) petroleum development in the
Navarin Basin. The Navarin Basin is located in the western Bering
Sea. A lease sale for this area is scheduled for March 1984 (Sale 83).
The analysis of the study is carried out both for the state of Alaska
as a whole, and for the Aleutian Islands census division. Chapter II
provides a historical review of the statewide and Aleutian economies.
Chapter nr discusses the projection methodology, which is based on
the MAP and SCIMP models developed at the University of Alaska's
Institute of Social and Economic Research. Chapter IV discusses the
basic assumptions about the structure of the statewide and regional
economies, the independent factors which would determine economic.
growth in the absenc~ of the lease sale, and the direct impacts of the
sale. Chapter V discusses the statewide base case and impact pro-
jections, and Chapter VI discusses the Aleutian Islands base case and
impact projections. Finally, Chapter VII briefly reviews the results
of the study. Supporting materials are provided in the appendixes.
] ~ J ~J =~ ~:J "] J -') , __ ] J ) ._j J J .l J .1 J ] J :-'<' -~ \~~-·-.· .. ·· ~--~ _· .· .. : ·: -__ --;···-, .... , ~---
....,
.,
-,
..'
-j
,,
:4
_;_ --..!.--· ·-· -•. _. --• .:. -·-·'--'-·---=------_ ... ------.:...~...:::-~--•• ,._~:"~~=-~ ---< -~i:.:.:.~ ,~' ~; .... ·'-:.ii'~\:...:..:..:.;.:.;~~~;~,,;:::~:.:.:;_;J£':.,;s_~--~ ·.2:::,;:-:~~~~~.::~,.:::..:~:.:.ii..c. ,~;ns->;:.i.,::~
II. STATEWIDE ·AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS GROWTH:
A HISTORICAL REVIEW
This chapter provides a historical review of economic growth for the
state of Alaska and for the Aleutian Islands.
The Statewide Economy
At the risk of oversimplification, the economic history of Alaska can
be summarized as one of resources, defense, disaster, more resources,
and government. Prior to World War II. interest in the state focused
1 arge ly on natura 1 resource exp 1 oitat ion, pri mari iy based on furs,
fish, and hard rock minerals. World War II "and the cold war aftermath
lead to a sizable military-government involvement in the state, both
in terms of population and economic activity.
The advent of statehood found an economy reflecting a narrowly based
private sector, largely dependent upon limited natural resource activ-
ity, and a large federal civilian and military presence. In 1960, for
example, federal civilian wages and salaries accounted for 25 percent
of the total civilian wage bill, while state government (5.9 percent)
and local government (5. 1 percent) made up an additional 11 percent of
total wage and salary payments. When military payrolls are included,
42.5 percent of wage and salary income was accounted for by government.
3
. ··-'----'--· --~--·-· -·c---~"-"'-'--~~~....; ~;:.~_,_,, ... : .. ,·_,. ~ ··· ~:~--~...:; ~-~-~~·:_.:.;.--~; -~0.....:.; \'_,.,-,: :..~-·;:;.:.-;;;:,;-?i6~m&~.7-i~~-;.,..;,)(t£i:b'&f%:;.-;;;:.: .. ,}'-~ ·. ·-_. ·~;:·:.:-:. ~~-~':t':.:,:i.,:~.~-}~.i;,~::,..,.:.~~;.??fiii~;:.g";;t
:IDii~ry rmff "ttlhe §waJ!"fS(DJf) iRihV!Elr rmiiil -:ftheTild im l'35i? :had clime much to
r:a-ii:SE -e~p:e:ct:crti@'lft'S iitml!flf fd!tt:.c.tre '&nnorrriicc p-raspe:c:ts., b.ut i-t wacs n-ot
.urmt.iil .maj<nr dii:s:cDMe!ri<es im ~k .lmlet crnri;rrg 1~955 th:at the oi 1 and gas
i;n:dur.s;try became fi··rrniJ·y est:abilist.red and si gni'fi cant levels of p.roduc-
tiam were assured. Tt.re emergence of petrol e.um res:ou.rces as a si gni fi-
cant factor i:n the Al,a:s:k:a economy cons-ide:rab ly improved the potentia 1
for p:Fivate sector development and, more importantly, helped to shore
up the extremely shaky fi sea 1 base of state government.
For the mid and 1 atte:r part of the decade of the 1960s, it was to be
natural disaster that provided much of the impetus for economic
growth. The G00d Friday earthquake of 1964 resulted in a major recon-
struction effort which supported levels of economic activity that
probably would not have been achieved otherwise. A second disaster,
of 1 esser statewide magnitude but of great consequence for the
Fairbanks region, was the flood of 1967. Disaster re 1 i ef and recon-
struction funds, followed later by flood control projects, provided a
needed boost for the region;s economy.
_Discovery of oil at Prudhoe Bay in 1968 marks the beginning of the
latest phase of Alaska economic history. Development of the super-
giant field, construction of the oil pipeline, and the related flows
of revenue to state government are providing the impetus for sustained
economic growth and diversification that should carry the state well
into the 21st century.
4
[
[
[
[
c
L
L
[
r-,
I I , ..___ ...
r
L
[
c
c;
L
[
c
L
L
[
'"'
_)
-
"'
. ------·-··-~~j~ -·--·-----~o--, :·•···· f:·:~""-"--···' -~-~--~::_·_·_: __ _-_--:_.._.::....,;...;;-' . ..;.,:_:_:_-:.:, ......... ~_-_-.. -;. __ ...,_".,._:~__,-:...:;..J:::..,__:,._{_.,.:~..;~.::::U....~:_;,_~~~!"-..:·.~,:. ----··•
Against this backdrop, we can now look more specifically at several
important dimensions of growth and change in the Alaska economy. As
_suggested earlier, there are certain key measures of ecqnomic activity
that are central to the analysis. Personal income and employment data
provide insight into the overall growth of the economy and changes in
t~e composition of economic activity. In addition, these data can be
used as genera 1 i ndi caters of changes in economic we 11-bei ng over
time. An important corollary variable is population growth. It is
also instructive _to review aggregate measures of production for the
economy.
In addition to these general measures of economic activity, there are
several specific attributes of the economy that need to be considered.
These include such topics as secular and seasonal unemployment, the
structure of costs and prices, and the role of state government with
respect to determining overall economic activity. Finally, we must
consider issues related to potential future economic activity. We now
turn to specific measures of the economy.
PRODUCTION
Data measuring the gross value of production by industrial classifica-
tion are not available for recent years. However, various measures of
the value of output for selected industries have been compiled and are
presented in Tab 1 e 1. Except for agriculture, the industries reflect
the primary 11 export base 11 components of the private sector economy.
·s
_, _____ .. _.,.,··,-::: ~·~:...~ .-._
I
j
I
t I
Table 1. Value of Production for Selected Industries t~
Various Years, 1960-1979 I
(millions or current dollars) r
r Federal Total f.
lndust£i Agriculture Forestry_ Fisheries Oil & Gas Government Government I
Value {o FlSficrmen Wholesale Crude Dry Outlays in Spending in ! -) :!ill. Salmon Shellfish Total_ Value on ~ Alaska (FY) Alaska (FY) t.
1960 5.6 47.3 33.6 3.1 40.9 96.7 1.2 . 03 155.8 N.A •
H;.
),
i ,,f:
1961 5,7 48.0 35.7 5.1 46.5 128.7 17.7 .129 N.A. N.A. I 1962 5~7 52.3 42.1 7.1 58.4 131.9 31.2 • 467 N.A • N.A.
: 1963 5.3 54.1 31.3 9.6 46.9 109.0 32.7 1.1 N.A. N.A.
1964 5;6 61.0 41.4 10.0 56.8 140.9 33.6 1.7 N.A. N.A.,
1965 5.3 57.5 48.3 14.5 70.1 166.6 34.1 1.8 533.7 N.A.
~:.
1966 5,3 71.2 54.2 17.6 81.9 197.3 44.1 6.3 N.A. N.A. t;'
en 1967 5.2 80.6, 24.6 18.3 48.8 126.7 88.2 7.3 N.A. N.A.
r
1968 4.9 89.2: 49.5 27.9 79.9 191.7 186.7 4.4 N.A. N.A. '·
1969 4.3 1 01. Ci 40.6 20.8 GU. 1 144.2 214.5 12.7 N.A. N.A. .
1970 5.2 93.1' 68.0 20.5 97.5 213.9 232.8 18.2 728.7 N.A. :.
·•.
1971 5.0 l03.!i 51.4 25,0 .. 85.5 198.7 234.3 18.0 852.9 N.A. · .
1912 . 6.0 82.:1 45.3 33.6 92.4 185.7 221.7 18.0 989.4 N.l\. ~ ~. :·
1973 7.0 131A 60.1 61.4 142.11 283.0 239.6 19.5 1018.6 1592
r 1974 8.1 154. J 65.7 62,8 144.1! 254 347.4 22.5 1135.9 1730 ~-
1975 9.2 133.!) 55.3 55.4 129.4 293 364.6 42.8 1326.8 2000 ·.
f
1976 8.8 149.S 118.0 96,5 239.6 452 318.8 60.5 1368.1 2226
1977 9.9 179.3 171 157 349 723P 988.9 66.6 1544.9 2524 w 1978 9.2 N.A. 2J8P 272P 543P 111sg 2701.5 89.6 1753.0 2845 t.
1979 9.1P N.A. 317P 231P 606P 1243 5493.6P 91.5 1932.2 3147°
I
p " pre 11m1 nary f e .. estimate ...
N.A. a not availabl~ .,.
f.'··
See Table 1 Notes
tf
SOURCE: ~;-
fi
!{
~:
~·
'
: 6 r ,.
~ r"r-;"'. ~ ~· rr-n !"""--i ~ ~; e-n ~>,;.
j. ,,; ,,, . ·' C:"J t'~ ,...-..., f"::-:1 ;~~,. I J r------, ---, ~ )., ,,) j ' ~ l
,._____, :-I r--, ;--.-, \ ' . J ··~i' ' ' it! ~(.
~'
·:J-:--
__ ._....__:; ____ ._ .... ·. ····--·:~.:. . ......;;.__.,._....:..~---··---'~·-···· ~-: .._,;_;:..,_~~--:.· __ .:_. __
Table 1 Notes
The data are primarily obtained from selected tables in The Alaksa
Economy: Year-End Performance Report 1978 (Alaska Department of Coi~T.erce
and Economic Development, Division of Economic Enterprise; Juneau, Alaska)
and Alaska Statistical Review (Alaska Department of Commerce and Econo~ic
Development, Divis1on of Economic Enterprise; Juneau, Alaksa, 1980). The
latter source is a preliminary report. Specific sources for each column
of the table follow.
Agriculture: page B-13 Alaska Statistical Review (ASR). Value of sales
is a-pproximately 74 percent of value of production, vJith the balance
being used on farm.
Forestry: Data from 1960-1971 are from Alaska Statistical Revie\~ (1972),
p. 90, and reflect total end product value. For 1972-1977, the data are
from the 1978 Year End Performance Report and reflect only forest prod-
uct exports. Here the series are not comparable, but individually
reflect growth in the periods in question. Comparable series are not
available over the full period.
Fisheries: Data for 1972-1975 are from the 1978 Year End Performance
Report, p. 58. 1976 data are from Alaska Catch and Production: 1976
(Alaska Department of Fish and Game). 1977-1979 data are from ASR
(1980). 1960-1971 data are from ASR (1972) p: 74. Data for 1960-71,
1976-79 are comparable. Data for 1972-75 represent approximately 92 per-
cent of total whoJesale value.
Oil and Gas: ASR (1980) p. B-3. It should be noted that these data do
not include value added in transportation and here reflect approximate
wellhead value.
Federal Government Outlays in Alaska: 1960-1977 data are from 1978 Year
End Report, p. 105. 1978-1979 data are from ASR (1980), p. E-2. Data
are tor tiscai year ending in given calendar year.
Total Government Spending in Alaska: Data from ASR (1980) p. E-1. The
total is net of intergovernmental transfers.
7
. "-·-...:.~-~.....:...:.:.:.~--:: ;......:..~-__ : .-_:,_, __ . o·-'· ,, .. -.·.~. . ·,.:: . .:....:._,_-.::_:.:.,.-;~~~ ... - , . --_:_:_:_: __ ,.£...:...· . ".:. ~:··:::.:_.:__:.._ _'· -~--'>:~: · ..
Data on federa 1 and tota 1 government expenditures have a 1 so been
included for comparative purposes. Furthermore, a large portion of
federal government outlays-indirectly reflects an export of goods and
services by the private sector economy of Alaska.
Fisheries and petroleum have clearly dominated growth in the value of
production in the private sector. Value of catch to fishermen has
grown at an average annual rate of 15 percent over the period, and
wholesale value has grown almost as rapidly (14.4 percent), reflecting
both the substantial growth of shellfishing and rising product prices.
When deflated by the consumer price index (which is appropriate if we
are interested in implicit purchasing power), the value of catch g(·ew
at almost 10.3 percent and the wholesale value by 9.5 percent. Crude
oil and natural gas percentage growth rates are relatively meaningless
since the base in 1960 is negligible, but their significance is obvi-
ous. It is also worth noting that in 1978 (the last year for which
data are available) production of minerals other than oil and gas and
sand and gravel amounted to 18.4 million dollars, or about 0.6 percent
of the total value of mineral production. Neither has there been any
significant change in the value of this dimension of mining over the
past two decades. In deflated do 11 ars, federa 1 government expendi-
tures have grown at about 9~3 percent.
Government expenditures are not directly comparable to the value of
production in other industries since they reflect not only government
production (wages and salaries) but purchases of goods and services
8
..:.·!."-·:,_-
['.
[
[
L
r·
L
c
[
r~.
I
I ~-
r~
L
c
[
[ -
L
[
f-·
L
r:
L
[
-,
~.
-..;
-·
-l
~
--------~___.:.~~-~-~---'= ..... :.uoi".:..o ·.f=·'?.·-·--·S~-,--• ··&·";; ;&m ~--. -.,;.;. -~ . ·.::."'·~· ., ---------~~--..:......;....:::::::._.:.:.,: --->:_ ---~·.::._--____ ,:. _____ ,__, ---
and t.ransfe.r payments to individuals. However, in another sense these
expenditu.res do reflect a mea.su.re of demand for production of goods
and services t.hroug.hout the economy as· a who 1 e arid underscore the con-
tinuing importance of government spending in the economy.
Of particular significance in overall government spending is the role
of state government spending. The state fiscal history can roughly be
divided into three periods: early post-statehood, Prudhoe Bay sale to
pipeline completion, and Prudhoe Bay production.
During the first period, federa 1 government grants, both statehood
tr·ans,iti on grants and others, were an important component of state
government revenues. The relative decline in federal grants were more
than offset by-revenues linked to general economic growth and the de-
velopment of Cook Inlet petroleum resources, but expenditures were
constrained by available revenues.
The $900 million Prudhoe Bay lease sale in the fall of 1969 ushered in
the second period and led to an immediate doubling of state government
expenditures. Growth in expenditures continued rapidly, although
still constrained by available revenues and the rapidly diminishing
balance of the lease sale. The third period is marked by the com-
mencement of production from Prudhoe Bay; and, for the first time, the
state has significant potential surplus revenues.
9
. ___ :.__~. _ : .'.-.:.·~-~·.:..:::..:..·~~:..:..:d..-~C-~.:..----~-~-'--""" · ' ·.._·-;-_,::::·i '.":h,-. ···::..:..;~;-,-:·~--.,;.::~~r.~-·-<-~· --~-,~0.-:.::·i:• ,·"-·-~ .::yt;;"".-.-;· :--~·;,.·:~ .-:~:._,L_..i.~-.:L..:.·,;,_·:_.:~L~-,.,._ ... ·:~-.::;;,.~:~: ~-:.:,_~~ :~~-~·;;_·: . ·.-::::._. __ ... :-:·';~:~~-..-:..'..;:...:~. ~-""--~..::.C:.-:....;::.::: '-'-~---
The rapid expansion of revenues since 1969 has resulted in a closely
correlated growth of state government expenditures. This is reflected
not only in expanding state government employment and wages but also
by total government expenditures for purchases of goods and services
and transfers to local government. The net result has been that state
government spending (both directly and through local government) has
assumed a significant role in the overall determination of economic
activity in Alaska. This is a pattern which will prevail for some
time into the future.
In summary, the role of natural resources in the growth of the Alaska
economy has been dominated by fisheries and petroleum. Forest
products have remained regionally importani, primarily for Southeast
Alaska, but have not demonstrated significant growth. Agriculture has
remained stagnant, and, in real terms, the value of production has de-
clined. Government has remained~ major force in the economy, with
state and local government increasing in relative proportion to total
government.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WORK FORCE
Analysis of employment, unemployment, and work force data is important
for several reasons. First, since labor is one of the key factors of
production, employment data provide a general indicator of the growth
and composition of production over time. The main deficiency with
these data for such purposes is that they ignore changes in factor
proportions over time and differences in factor proportions between
10
[
[
[
[
[
[ ,.
L
[
r
I
!'L._..:.
[
[
c
c
b
[
r
L
t~
Ls
[
-·---··-··· ... ~-··-· '' • .;::.J::.::...~ . ..-.:.--=..~., .... :..: :;..:..o.:.,~.,;;.;.,;_:,~~"'"~;; . .::.;.:;_...__:_~--->••;_, ·---· -~-~~--:::......_...:~:-_:~--_____ .:._·.::.. .. ·~-_._. ______ .. -.· ·---~-----"~-: . ..:._: ---
industries. This omission is particularly important in industries
that are highly capital-intensive, such as the petroleum industry.
Also, since these data are based on job counts~ they (jo not reflect
actual man hours of production and, hence, provide only an approximate
.,
measure of labor input.
Second, work force data, in conjunction with total employment data,
determine unemployment. It is instructive to observe the patterns of
unemployment over. time and in response to changes in total economic
activity. Third, the data are useful in measuring seasonal patterns
of economic activity and how this may have changed over time.
-o
.
Tables 2 and 3 provide summary data on employment, labor force, and
unemployment for selected years over the 1960-1978 period. Total em-
~. ployment over this period grew at an annual average rate of 4.9 per-
·J cent. However, substantial vadation in the growth rate is evident.
From 1960-1973, the rate was 3 percent; while for 1974-1978 (reflect-
;cJ
i ng the pipe 1 i ne boom) the rate was 8. 6 percent. The growth of the
'
_; civilian labor force shows a similar pattern, although increasing at a
slightly higher rate. The result of this is that total unemployment
~ has grown at about 7 percent per year over the period and the unem-
ployment rate has also increased.
11
1-'
N
r--J
Total Civilian Labor Force
Total Unemployment
~ of Total Labor Force
Total Employment
Konagricultural Wage and
Salary Employment
Mining
Contract Construction
11anufacturing
Food Processing
1960
73.6
5.9
8.0%
67,7
•:'
TABLE 2. CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
1960, 1965, 1970-1978, BY BRCAD INDUST~f CLASSIFICATION
(IN TIIOUSANOS)
1965
89.8
7.7
0.6%
82.1
1970
91.6
6.5
7.1%
85.1
1971
97.7
8.0
8.2%
89.6
1972
103.6
8.6
8.3%
95.0
1973
109.1
9.3
8.5%
99.9
1974
125.6
9.9
7.9%
115.7
1975
156.0
10.8
6.9%
145.3
1976
168.0
14.0
8.3l
154.0
1977
174.0
16.0
9.2%
158.0
ill.!!
101.0
20.0
11.01 •.
161.0
Emp. _%_ ~ _% _ Emp. _% _ ~ _% _ ~£.!.. _%_ ImP.:_ _%_ ~ _% _ ~ _%_ f.r!2.:.,_!_ · ~ _% _ f.r!2.:_ __!}
56.9 100.0 70.5 100.0 92.5 1oo.o 97.6 100.0 105.4 100.0 111.2 100.0 129.7 100.0 163.7 1oo:o 173.5 100.0 166.0 100.0 163.2 100.
1.1 : 1.9 1.1 1.6 3.0 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 3.0 2.3 3.8 2.3 4.0 2.3 5.0 3.0 5.6 3.
5.9 10.4 6.5 9,2 6.9 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.5 7.8 7.0 14.1 10.9 25.9 15.8 30.2 17.4 19.5 11.7 12.2 7~
5.8 ·10.1 6.2 8.8 7.8 8.4 7.8 8.0 8.1 7.7 9.4 8.5 9.6 7.4 9.6 5.9 10.3 5.9 10.9 6.6 11.5. 7.;.
2.8 : 4.9 3.0 4.3 3.7. 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.6 4.1 4.3 3.3 4.3 2,6 5.1 2.9 5.5 3.3 6.3 3.
Logging, Lumber, Pulp 2.2 3.9 2.3 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 3.6 2.8 3.4 2.1 3.2 1.8 3.5 2.1 1.8 1.·
Transportation, Convnunicat1ons·
P~blic Utilities 6.8 12.0 7.3 10.4 9.1 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.0 9.5 10.4 9.4 12.4 9.6 16.5 10.1 15.8 9.1 15.6 9.4 16.4 10 ..
Trade
Finance, lnsur~nce,
Real Estate
Services
Government
Federal
State
Local
r:T7· ~ (~ r-]
7.7 13.5 10.0 14 .. 2 15.4 16.6 16.1 16.5 17.1 16.2 18.3 16.5 21.1 16.3 26.2 16.0 27.6 15.9 28.5 17.2 28.8 17.
1.4 2.5 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.5 4.2 3.8 4.9 3.8 6.0 3.7 7.1 4.1 7.8 4.7 8.2 5.
5.6 9.8 7.5 10.6 11.4 12.3 12.5 12.8 14.0 13.3 15.2 13.7 18.3 14.1 25.1 15.3 27.7 16.0 27.4 16.5 27.6 16.
22.7 39.9 29.7 42 .. 1 35.5 38.5 38.0 38.9 41.~ 39.6· 42.8 38.5 45.3 34.9 49.5 30.2 49.7 28.6 50.7 30.5 52.2 32.
15.6 27.4 17.4 24.7 17.1 18.5 17.3 17.7 17.2 16.3 17.2 15.5 18.0 13.9 18.3 11.2 17.9 10.3 17.7 10.7 18.1 11: . .
3.9 6.9 1.0 9,9 10.4 11.2 11.1 12.0 1J.J 12.6 13.8 12.4 14.2 10.9 15.5 9.5 14.1 s.1 13.9 8.4 14.3 a: .
3,2 I 5,6 5,3 7,5 8,1 8,8 9,0 9,2 11,2 10,6 11,9 10,7 13,1 10,1 15,8 ~.7 17,i .10,1 19,1 11,5 19,8 12,
: f .
rr--: r-o ~ ..... -~ t---:
' _1 <-:-:1 r:-J rJ r---r·-~, ,.----.
j :---j --..
'· I
,._) :~
:1
~~
~..., ... .....---.
: _____ ....,::..,.._~--··
Table 2 Notes
Sources of data: 1960, 1965 ASR (1972) p. 16. It should be noted
that the "labor force" data are actually work force data for these two
years and are not directly c9mparable with the data for 1970-1978. The
basic difference betv1een the tvJO series· is that v1ork force estimates are
based on job counts and, hence, a worker may be counted more than once
if holding two or more jobs. Labor force estimates are supposed to
eliminate this double counting. Thus, the work force data for 1960
and l965somevJhat overstate the actual number of employed.
· In 1970-1978, labor force and total employment estimates are obtained
from Alaska Labor Force Estimates by Area (Alaska Department of Labor),
various years.
Non-agricultural wage and salary data are obtained from the Statistical
Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor) for the various years.
13
_ .. ;.;_: ;.__ . ._ ___ ~---··-· ._ ~~-·.,--,· _., "-··.:.:....:_ • ..,,~:.:~~~_.,;: :..::~_;'-~~-~..._,::, ..,£_~--_.,;,. ;._ .. . .. --~...:..-··-.... :.:.:.;;:;.....;~:· _ _:.,: ___ ---· -~~---::...:...,,~, ...... : . .:....:..::_ __ :..:_, __ .;.:: . ...: . .__.·.:::.:·
TABLE 3. INDEX OF ·sEASONAL VARIATION IN NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT: SELECTED YEARS 1960-1978
1960 . 1965 1970 1972 1974
Total Nonagricultural
Employment 39.4 30.6 22.7 24.6 32.0
Contract Construction 156.2 91.7 69.5 77.6 108.2
Manufacturing 136.3 116.3 107.9 105.2 70.8
1976
23.1
64.7
78.2
Food Processing_ 211.5 195.2 196.3 175.3 100.6 112.0
Trade 20.8 20.0 15.6 14.8 25. 1 13.5
Services 28.4 17.2 10.7 16.2 26.8 13.3
Unemployment Rate, '•·
All Industries 117.5 74.4 59.2 65.1 82.3 45.8
Labor Force 28.2 26.5 21.8 21.0 27.1 21.2
197.8
14.0
47.2
86.5
125.0
12.0
17.8
30.0
12.0
SOURCE: Compiled from Statistical Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor),
selected years. Seasonal variation is measured as the high month
minus the 1ow month divided by average annual figure, stated··as
a percent. Unemployment data are from labor Force Estimates
(Alaska Department of Labor), various years.
14
b.
[
c
[
r·
L
L
L
[
~--
I ;
'(.___.;
F'
L
L
c
[
L -
L
G
L
r..:.
\ c I-
"=
[
--;
~
---~~~. ~-,_:-: ..:-·-.,. ________ . ··--__ .. ,.:. ________ , __
It is also worth noting that during the pre-pipeline period the unem-
ployment rate was relatively stable and that the somewhat higher rates
of 1977 and 1978 reflect in large par~ a readjustment to a more normal
post-pipeline period. These data clearly illustrate the openness of
the Alaska labor market. Large variations in the demand for labor are
p~i mari 1 y met by significant in-and out-mtgrat ion and by changes in
labor force participation rates. As a consequence, the long-run rate
of unemployment is quite stable and the simple expansion of economic
activity has little effect in terms of reducing unemployment. The
second b 1 ock of data in Tab 1 e 2 provides annua 1 average emp 1 oyment
data by broad industry classification. In addition to illustrating
the sustained growth of employment and production in all Jndustry cat-
egories, these data also indicate relative changes in the significance
of specific industries.
Emp 1 oyment in mining is the one basic sector industry that has in-
creased its share of total employment. The federal government share
has declined substantially over the period, while both state and local
government have grown, with much of the growth in state government
employment occurring during the 1960s and the early 1970s. Local gov~
ernment growth lagged state government in the early years, but by 1975
local government employment exceeded state government employment. Of
particular interest is the growth of support sector activity, includ-
ing trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and services. This
growth reflects a steady diversification of support sector activity
.. .
and the process of import substitution in response to increasi.ng
15
__ ...,_: !-. __ ,_.~~ ... _,,. ____ • ---'~:~ _ __,__;: __ :.::. •• '-~-• _.:.:...::_·..:.::.~. --·-_._.:...:..._.. ~---"-~.; __ -:_;;:~-·~--~-..•. .-:~~,_;:-:-~·:.::.c.:.;.,.~ . ..:.....,..:_; : ... :.~----_-..c:____.,., __ ~-=--~-~-:;_,_.,;_:,
market size, growth of incomes, and opportunities for specialization.
In short, the data reflect a general maturation of the economy.
It is a 1 so of interest to consider changes in seasona 1 patterns of
economic activity. Table 3 summarizes seasonal activity in selected
industries, as well as for total nonagricultural wage and salary
employment, labor force, and unemployment. Seasonal variation is
measured as the high month minus the low month divided by the average
annual figure for the respective variable. Because of secular growth
in the variables, the index tends to overstate seasonality for any
given year, but for comparative purposes, over time, the index is
satisfactory.
The data reflect two important dimensions of the Alaska economy.
First, seasonality varies drastically from industry to industry, with
construction and manufacturing (especially food processing) showing
the greatest seasonal swings. Second, while significant seasonality
remains in aii industry, there has been a major reduction over time.
In summary, the data on labor force, employment, and unemployment
illustrate several important features of the Alaska economy. First,
while growth has been uneven, aggregate economic activity has in-
creased substantially since statehood. Contract construction, mining,
and support sector industries grew rapidly during pipeline construc-
tion. With the exception of contract construction, levels of employ-
ment achieved at the peak of pipeline construction have generally·been
sustained or have increased.
-16
r
[-,
;
C'
r~
L
f--.
c
[
C'
I
1
'1-o
[
[
c
[
b
[
[
L
r-;
~
L
-'
_]
~I
•. -J
----·--._-..;.._. '--·--·-
Second, structural c:hange that reflects a general maturing of the
economy has occurred, a.s evidenced by the increased share of total em-
ployment accounted for by-support sector activity, including trade,
finance, insurance and real estate, and services. Coupled with the
greatly reduced dependence of the state on federal government activity
and the growth of petroleum and fisheries, the data indicate-a general
broadening and diversification of economic activity.
Third, in additi()n to sustained secular growth, there has been a
marked decrease in seasonal swings in economic activity. In part,
this reflects the relative growth of industries with smaller seasonal
variations. In addition, construction and fish processing seasonality
have also reduced substantially.
Finally, the relative stability of unemployment rates over time clear-
ly indicates the openness of the Alaska labor market. The generally
higher than national average unemployment rates have not responded to
aggregate economic expansion historically and probably will not in the
future.
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income measures that part of the total value of production
that accrues to individuals and includes: wage and salary income;
other labor income; proprietor's income; income from dividends, inter-
est, and rent; and personal transfer payments. While deficient in
many respects as -a measure of economic well-being, it is nevertheless
17
a useful indicator of the degree to which individuals share in the
total benefits of production. Table 4 presents estimates of personal
income for Alaska, by major source, for selected years covering the
period from 1960 through 1978.
Personal income has grown steadily -over the entire period, at an
average annual rate of 11.3 percent, while for the pipeline period the
growth was about 17 percent per year. Wage and salary income
accounted for the majority of personal income throughout th~ period,
averaging 80 percent. In contrast, about 68 percent of U.S. personal
income is accounted for by wages and salaries. Proprietor income as a
share of totai personal income has declined somewt]_at; while that of
dividends, interest, and rent has increased modestly. The share
accounted for by transfer payments has increased substantially but
still remains well below the national figure of 12.6 percent. The
data also generally confirm the relative changes in the composition of
industry activity that were observed in the employment data.
The growth of aggregate personal income in Table 4 reflects not only
aggregate growth of production but also the influence of inflation.
Table 5 presents aggregate personal income in both current and con-
stant do 11 ars. Growth of constant do 11 ar persona 1 income has been
significant and has averaged 7.8 percent per year. During the
1974-1977 period, the growth was even more dramatic at 11.8 percent in
real terms. The combined effects of inflation and the plateauing of
economic activity following completion of pipeline construction have
resulted in a slight decline in real personal income in 1978.
18
[
[
[
[
[
L
[
[
r~
I
I
b..
[
[;
.
E
[
b
["
f t=
L
~~
~
L
~~ l1 L1 1_, '" I .J U: '·· l.J '.L ,J • J ,)
TABLE 4. PERSONAL INCOME BY MAJOR COMPONENT:
ALASKA, SELECTED YEARS 1960-1978
(millions of current dollars)
1960 1965 ' 1970 1975 1978
COMPONENT _ $_ % Total _L % Total ___ _! _ % Total _$ _ % Total _!__ % Total ---
Wages. & Salary 567.9 84.1 778.2 88.8 1293.9 84.7 3620 85.0 3954.9 80.6
Private, Total 281.5 41.7 463.2 52.8 773.1 50.6 2771 65.1 2907.2 59.2
Mining 10.3 1.5 14.3 1.6 54.2 3.5 116 2.7 248.4 I 5. 1
Contract Construction 77.3 11.5 98.0 11.2 140.2 9.2 1095 25.7 5.37.8 11.0
Manufacturing 47.1 7.0 59.7 6.8 90.9 5.9 161 3.8 260.9 5.3
...... Fisheries 17.7 2.6 22.9 2.6 31.4 2. 1 46.2 1.1 100.5 2.0 . U)
Forest Products 8.4 1.2 22.8 2.6 38.6 2.5 64.8 1.5 50.0 1.0
Support Sector 142. 1 21. 1 265.3 30.3 457.4 29.9 1364 32.0 1817.0 37.0
Government 286.6 42.5 376.0 42.9 593.6 38.8 993 23.3 1301.8 26.5
Federal Civilian 104.7 15.5 137.6 15.7 195 .. 1 12.8 308 7.2 383.2 7.8
Military 136.0 20.1 143.9 16.4 '225. 7 14.8 258 6. 1 287.5 5.9
State & Local 45.9 6.8 94.4 10.8 172.9 11.3 427 10.0 631.0 12.9
Proprietors• Income 50. 1 7.4 62.1 7. 1 73.9 4.8 143 3.4 260.5 5.3
Dividend, Interest & Rent 33.0 4.9 52.1 5.9 01.4 5.3 220 5.2 333.4 6.8
Transfer Payments 24.0 3.6 34.2 3.9 79.3 5.2 274 6.4 358.3 7.3
TOTAL 675.0 100.0 876.6 100.0 1528.5 100.0 4257 100.0 3907.1 100.0 ; ..
less !.·
·cont. for Soc. Ins. 11.0 22.3 49.2 172.0 223.5 '· •,
Residence Adj. 31.5 45.9 67.1 637.0 314.6 '
Resident Personal Income 6f2.5 900.2 1412.2 3447.0 4369.0
,:..:.·.-~· :--: ....:.~=-'---"''-"-=~· . ;;...~ . ,:.._; --~___::_: -.... __ ~ . ~ ,:..· . .:...,-. :;.: __ · .. ;. .-">.~---""""-"'-'-':·-=---.;..:..___:,_.3';,~~r'"-••',;._:· ·2~~~2i:~--~-:.,; __ ~_,...:;.:::.±:i-.::·:~_::·-..:. . ..,:.•··_.._:·_."_,:
Table 4 Notes
SOURCE: Major components-of the table are obtained from U. S. De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis reports of personal
income by state. Wages and sa 1 ary figures (row l) inc 1 ude wage and
sa 1 ary p 1 us other 1 abor income components of persona 1 income. Except
for 1960, the private, total row and subcomponents thereunder, contain
wage and sa 1 ary income, other 1 abor income, and proprietors' income.
Tota 1 income is the sum of the wages and sa 1 ary row plus proprietors 1
income; dividends, interest and rents; and transfer payments. Resi-
dent personal income is equal to total income less contribution for
social insurance and the residence adjustment.
20
[
r
[
[
[
c
['
Lo
[
I'
I -
I
'-'
r-
L
E
[
t
b
[
r~
L
r ' -~
L
. ------·-· ··.:--::...:..::.-~-: •. :. ~--:_.;:::;..;.::,~ ___ ;.. ~ _;._..i.... __ . :.".::.~;:,;,-: .·_ ,:;;_;,; . .-... ---~~t:.-::.::,-=:· .. :::~__:-~..:_. ___ ~ ... :..~.-::. --~~~-~:~.:::::..::-~~/· ~-.::;·;.;:; . .:.;-:.:.:~----.:__~--~---·------~-------
'
:::.;
__:;
~---
:;.·J1
1960
1965
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
TABLE 5. ALASKA RESIDENT ADJUSTED PERSONAL INCOME
IN CURRENT AND CONSTANT 1979 DOLLARS
-1960, 1965, and 1970-1978
Millions of Dollars of
Personal Income, Total Per Capita Personal Income
Current $ Constant 1979 $ Current $ Constant 1979 $
632.5 1,470.6 2,797 6,503
858.4 1,982.8 3' 168 7,318
1,411.9 2,700.3 4,644 8,882
1,557.2 2,954.8 4,939 9,372
1,698.5 3,036.4 5,234 9,631
2,001. 5 3,570.0 6,046 10,784
2,436.7 3,822.9 7' 138 11,199
3,527.7 4,493.5 9,673 12,321
4,194.8 5,421.4 . 10,274 13,278
4,313.4 5,346.5 10,455 12,959
4,369 .. 0 4,875.2 10,849 12,106
Average Annual Percent Growth
11.3 7.8 6.9 3.5
SOURCE: Current dollar personal and per capita income from U.S. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Deflated by Anchorage
Consumer Price Index, U.S. Department of Labor.
21
~ :·.~---.....:.:.-...::..:..._ . ...__..,·:...:-;._~
--.:.~-. _..:~_.L..:__:_.:~··.; __ .,_,__; .• :....-·--'~·---·~~·-• ~-· --····------=----;.~~~-___ :::.: _·.:......_ __ _;_:,;_~.·-~-.:....:.__. __ ·
There are two other dimensions of personal income that are particu-
larly important in assessing individual economic well-being: per
capita income and the distribution of income. Table 5 includes data
on the growth of per capita personal income in real and current
dollars.
Real per capita income from 1960-1973 grew at an average annual rate
of 4 percent. The 1973-1978 period, encompassing pipeline construe-
tion and the post-boom readjustment, shows rapid expansion until 1976
and then a substantial drop during 1977 and 1978. The net growth over
the period is only 2 percent per year. Two points are worth noting in
this respect. First, the rapid expansion of activity occurred during
a period of high national inflation and was'of sufficient magnitude to
1 ead to addi t i anal region a 1 i nfl at ion in the A 1 as ka economy. Thus,
the real value of per capita income growth was greatly diminished.
Second, the rapid expansion of total economic activity had only a
minimal effect in raising per capita income, again reflecting the ease
of entry into the Alaska labor market.
Data ·on the distribution of personal income are not available for
recent years, but it is instructive to look at the pattern of wages
over time. Table 6 presents data on relative wages, by industry, for
selected years over the 1965-1978 period.
22
[
[
[
[
[
[
L
r
L"
r I I ,
t_ •
r"'
L
c
F b
[
L
[
~ '--
[
J
.,_
--
\.._j
[
-,
--,
~
~
·"
:::,
-
--
-~
-'
··.:.. .•. ·· ·. --·' .• .:.. •. ..::--.o--.~~ ~-·. ----·-----.:.....:..--~ ..
TABLE 6. DISTRIBUTION OF RELATIVE WAGE RATES,
BY INDUSTRY, FOR ALASKA,
-SELECTED YEARS, 1965-1978
Industry 1965 1970 1976
Total Nonagricu1ture Wage and Salary 100 100 100
Mining 147 164 140
Contract Construction 165 169 210
Manufacturing 106 99 73
Food Processing 97 78 55
Logging, Lumber, and Pulp 115 124 96
Other Manufacturing 112 110 83
Transportation, Communication,
and Public Utilities 115 114 105
Wholesale Trade 121 117 94
Retail ·Trade 78 70 50
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 88 81 62
Services 74 72 78
Government 91 97 74
Federal 91 100 70
State 91 96 79
Local 91 93 72
1978
100
193
157
93
71
119
109
128
111
62
81
75
97
94
111
89
SOURCE: Computed from average monthly wage data from the Statistical
Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor), selected years.
Relative_ wages are the respective industry wage divided by
the average wage for all industries X 100.
23
.•.. .:......-. ...:. _._ _____ . __ ___, ~ ·-·--.:..::.;.... _______ .. -· __ .:.:....::.:..:~-- . : .. --:, ___ -.._.:o~.:.-.-........'-'-t.~:... •. : ..
The numbers reflect the ratio of the average monthly wage for the
respective industry divided by the average monthly wage for all non-
agricultural wage and salary employment. The data must be interpreted
with caution since several factors are at work that may account for
year-to-year variability. First, the average monthly wage data
reflect both straight time and overtime earnings and are thus sensi-
tive to variation in the ratio of straight time to overtime work.
Second, the average monthly wage is computed by dividing total wages
by average monthly employment; and average monthly employment, in
turn, reflects both full-and part-time work. Thus, the employment
data are only an approximation of man hours \•11Jrked. We are also
looking at fairly aggregate data. Some· of the variation within
industries may be accounted for by changes in composition of activity
within the.broad industry classifications.
The data first indicate the growing disparity of average wage rates,
which would suggest a trend toward a less equal distribution of
income. More significant are the changes that occurred at the peak of
pipeline construction in 1976. Major distortions in the structure of
wages are present, and this suggests that the distribution of benefits
during a boom is not uniform, but rather that a small segment of the
economy appears to reap a large proportion of the gains. This feature
of boom economics is further demonstrated by an analysis of changes in
real wages over the 1973-1976 period.
24
[
[
[
[~
[
[
L
[
r~
I
I
l_.,
[
[
[
[
L
[
[
[
G
[
~,
;
'
~
--'
:::,
,..;
~
='
__ ,
.. ·,;..::"-··....:..:.;....: ............ _
Table 7 shows average monthly wages, by broad industry classification,
deflated by the Anchorage consumer price index (CPI). Use of the
Anchorage CPI is dictated because there is no statewide index. Hence,
the deflation is· subject to some error since price changes are not
uniform throughout Alaska. As an approximation, however, the data are
adequate.
It is clear that drastic differences exist among industries and that
the economic bene_fits of rapid economic expansion tend to be concen-
trated in a select few industries. A major portion of income implied
in the growth of construction wages was also earned by nonresidents or
temporary resident employees. With the exception of business
services, all components of the support s~ctor and government badly
lagged the average growth of wages and, implicitly, relative income.
Federal government and finance, insurance, and real estate real wages
actually declined.
While much of the inflation that occurred during the period is
attributable to national inflation, significant regional inflation
resulting from pipeline construction activity also occurred. Prior to
pipeline construction, the Anchorage CPI had been growing at a less
r~pid rate than the U.S. CPI. However, during pipeline construction,
this relationship was reversed, and the Anchorage CPI grew more
rapidly. After the pipeline, however, the inflation rate in Anchorage
again fell below that of the United States.
25
Except for periods of
A.LART:(A RESOURCES LIBRARlJ
U.S.-DEPT. OF-INTERIOR
;;.; _____ ~·-·~·-....___ ~-·'-"-·· · ______ ··"'------·~----~----· -4--
TABLE 7. CHANGE IN REAL AVERAGE MONTHLY WAGE
1973-1976, ALASKA (1973 DOLLARS)
Ave~age Wage Average Wage
Industry 1973 1976
Total Nonagriculture
Wage and Salary $1,006 $1,424
Oil and Gas Mining 1 '661 2,068
Contract Construction 1,635 2,985
Manufacturing 961 1,041
Transportation,
Communication. and
Pub 1 i c Utilities 1.141 1,494
Wholesale Trade i '177 1,341
Retail Trade 687 709
Finance~ Insurance,
Real Estate 897 884
Services 751 1,107
Hotels, Motels, Lodging 527 537
Business Services 732 1,706
Government 1,024 l ,047
Federal 1,062 1. 002
State 992 1,132
Local 1,003 1,024
Average Wage _
Percent Change
12.3%
7.6
22.2
2.7
9.4
4.4
l.l
-0.5
13.8
0.6
32.6
0.7
-1. 9
4.5
0.7
SOURCE: Computed from average monthly wage data, Statistical Quarterly
(Alaska Department of Labor), selected years.
26
[
[
[
L
[
L
[ '
[
r-,
I
I
1_,
[
[
n t:.,:
[
[
[
[
L
[
L
L
'
~'
relative boom in Alaska, consumer prices have tended to rise notice-
ably slower in Anchorage than outside Alaska. Over the long run, this
will tend to narrow price -differentia-ls between· Alaska and the Lower
48 states. Table 8 presents relative rates of growth in the Anchorage
and United States CPis for selected years, and clearly illustrates
this pattern.
As one final indication of income distribution patterns, a distribu-
tion relating percentage of total wage and salary income to percentage
of employment has been constructed for 1965 and 1978 (see Figure 1).
The di stri but ion was constructed by ranking industries according to
average monthly wage. The percentage of total employment and total
wage income accounted for by the respective industry was then com-
puted. The cumulative emp 1 oyment and income percentages were then
plotted, yielding the typical Lorenz-type distribution figure.
A comparison of the two distributions reveals a clear shift toward a
less uniform distribution of income. This shift is probably accounted
for by two factors. First, as indicated earlier, there has been a
sizable increase in the share of total activity accounted for by sup-
port sector industries, and these industries generally have lower than
average wage rates. Second, there has been a substantial growth in
the range of relative wages between industries over time.
27
-~:..;~....:-.••.. -:::.;-.,:.:..............:....: .: ..:--~---__________ ...:;:__ ____________ , __ ·-· ·-------~-·-··-··---'·----·~ ·-·---'"~~-'---~---~.:...:.-.:........:~.-.:..: ··---"'-·-'
TABLE 8. RATES OF CHANGE FOR THE ANCHORAGE
AND U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
SELECTED YEARS, 1960-1981
1960-1970 1970-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77
Anchorage 1.8
United States 2.8
Anchorage
United States
1977-78
6.3
7.7
4.1 13.3 12.3
5.6 12.0 7.6
1978-79 1979-80 1980-81
9.4
11.5
8.9
13.0
7.5
10.7
6.5
5.3
5.8
6.5
SOURCE: Derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on Anchorage
and United_States CPis.
28
[
['
L
[
r'
f -,
[
[
I'
I
I
lc:c.o
r-~
L
[
[
[
b
[
f~
'--'
L
!~
I -L
L
-,
-,
-'
.
~
_)
-"
_,
Per·cent of
FIGURE 1. DISTRIBUTION OF \-!AGE AND SALARY INCOi·1E
~LASKA, 1965 and 1978
100"'"'
90------
so--
--·-------·· 70-. 1978
60-
·' .
\·!age & Salary 50
Income
SClURCE:
4o-~-
3Q-·:--····-·-----:~ . ·-· .·
2o----------, .-.::,.~·=: .··~~; .. : , ·· .. ··::-....
.
f
f
i . . . . . .. ..... I
I
i . . . . . . _· . ·. --_. . i --.. ::::·::· =~~~-... ::.~-. ~---------· =-:.~ --.. -~=·. ~:---. :·-----~::~~--: : -·_:=::~ .-. i
Q.
.. : ·-. ····----· -:·--··-
... a.· __ ;:::"L~=_::-:: __ 1 ..... -l-: .... !··· _ :~-L ... : -~ _l
10 20 30 40 50 . 60 . 70
Percent of Employment
See text.
29
......... ---i
1 . -_-·_.r -~ ... _ i
80 90 100
.: ... · .• :.:.:~-~'---""'-"~~-----·----·-·· ........ c...--~-"""-~-·--·· _.............,__ ···---~--·-~..:....:: __ _: __ :.:_ .. ...:..:__,. _;_,_._";._,·_,_. ·--·-· __ _;,_ ___ ,..,.:;. .. ;:...,;,::.._~---:....;:.:.;;.
In summary, real personal income has shown sustained growth over the
entire 1960-1978 period, ·both in aggregate and per capita terms. The
growth has not been uniformly distributed, however,. and the wage
component has become less uniform over time. This was particularly
evident during pipeline construction and supports the hypothesis that
the benefits of pipeline construction were largely concentrated in a
few sectors.
POPULATION
The remaining dimension of growth to be considered is population.
Changes in population are divided into two components, natura 1 in-
c~ease (or decrease) and in/out-migration. Natural population growth
results from an excess of births over deaths and is, hence, determined
by birth and death rates.
Alaska exhibits both the highest birth rate and the lowest death rate
in the United States; and as a result, the rate of natural population
increase is the highest in the United States. This phenomenon is
largely accounted for by the relative youthfulness of the population,
with ·over 34 percent of the population between the ages of 14 and 30.
This age group has both the highest fert i1 i ty rate and the 1 owest
death rate.
Net migration (in-migration minus out-migration) is the second factor
contributing to population change. Many factors influence the migra-
tion decision; but for the Alaska case, it appears that (wit~ the
30
...
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
r
I
I
L
r
L
C
[ .
-~
[
r= t;
[
E
L
r ,
L
[
J
::0
-·
_]
_;;
"" ~---------~--~--------------" ---" '-·· -~----·~-' ------------~-~~~----~----~---~-~ ~~ --~~-----'~-----'·--...:-=--= ----
exc:epit.i•Dilil olf mii111italr_y-:re1La1ted mitg;ratircxm) mig.rati·o;n o:e:c:cr:rs 1 a:rgely in
res;p:o:mse to e:c::o;r;ranrk 'o.pfX0;rtllmii ty ~ l:m th:e arg:g.regate , re 1 at·i v e rates of
un.employmerrt an:d .relativ.e -wage diffe:rer:rtials in· Alaska and elsewhere
sJ:ro:UJld be illlj)o;rtarrt in dete'rmining the migration decision. At the
individual level, the economic c:amponent of the decisio.n is related to
t~e expected gain resulting from the move .. Basically, this is the
expected wage differential t·imes the probabi~ity of getting a job,
less the cost of making the change. Thus, either a change in relative
wage rates or relative employment opportunities can influence the
decision.
That migration is sensitive to economic opportunity is clearly demon-
strated by patterns of migration that occur during and after pipeline
construction. .Data summarizing population and changes in population
for Alaska for the years 1965 through 1978 are presented in Table 9.
Both the relative stability of natural increase and the volatility of
net migration are clear. Natural increase has averaged about 1.5 per-
cent per year; while large variations, even in pre-pipeline y~ars, are
evident in the net migration component.
Table 10 presents the age distribution of Alaska in juxtaposition to
the overall U.S. age distribution. As would be expected, the middle
age groups are significantly larger in Alaska than for the United
States as a whole; almost 34 percent of the Alaska population is
31
Year
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
TABLE 9. ALASKA POPULATION AND COMPONENTS
OF CHANGE; 1965-1978
(thousands)
Total Natural Increase Total Change --
265.2 5.7 10.2
271.5 5.3 6.3
277.9 5.0 6.4
284.9 5. 1 7.0
294.6 5.6 9.7
302.4 6. 1 7.8
312.9 5.9 10.6
324.3 5.5 11.4
330.4 5. l 6. 1
351.2 5.6 20.8
404.6 5.9 53.4
413.3 6.3 8.7
411.2 6.8 -2. 1
407.0 6.7 -4.3
406.2 7.4 -.8
400.5* -5.7
Net Migration
4.5
1.0
1.4
1.9
4. l
1.7
4.7
5.9
0.9
15.2
47.5
2.4
-8.9
-11.0
-8.2
*U.S. Census figure for 1980, so comparability is more difficult.
SOURCE: Alaska Department of Labor
32
.,· .. : .. :,.-c
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
r~,
I
I
L
I
L
c
c
[
b
[
~·~
IL..o
l
L
L
~
c
•• J
-'
---·-.....::._ . -~: ·-~····-:~." . ··~·.-.:.·.:-..;:~.~·'···~= .... -: ...
TABLE 10
ALASKA POPULATION BY AGE, 1980
Alaska Age U.S. Age
Distribution Distribution
Age Cohort Total --(% of Total) (% of Total)
0 - 4 38,777 9.68 7.21
5 - 9 84,917 8.72 7.37
10 -14 34,166 8.53 8.05
15 -19 36,980 9.23 9.34
20 -24 45,058 11.25 9.40
25 -29 48,452 12.10 7.29
30 -34 41,916. 10.46 7.75
35 -39 31,182 7.79 6.16
40 -44 22,570 5.63 5.15
45 -49. 18,355 4-.58 4.89
50 -54 15,801 3.95 5.16
55 -59 12,592 3.14 5.13
60 -64 8,095 2.02 4.45
65 + 11,530 2.88 11.28
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1980 Census of Population: Age,
Sex, Race, and Spanish Origin by Regions, Divisio.ns and States:
1980, PC 80-Sl-1, p. 4-5.
33
••..• _....:.-...,---·----~~---.;..........__.. .• --· -· --.-.:._--,:.·'•'"""-··· .:..~p-~· ~-~· -~· --··+·~----...._....'""-_. -=""""-~·-'-.:,,·_. .. ~~'-'--·~..:.L.-:..._._____~ ~.:.~--._, _ _"-.:· ... .....::.-. __;.,;.~. -~-~~-..:..~-.~~-.:,::.:-.:.:'"'-"~~:-.:: .. ~~----:?X.,_......:.._:;.;~i::~.:,_~ • ."-i.<·.:....._~~)H.'-·.~w;·~:..-~;,_~'?~
between ages 20 and 35, where the comparab 1 e figure for the United
States is less than 25 percent. This age group is extremely mobile,
and ac~ounts for a good deal of the migration that occu~red during the
pipeline boom.
In summary, Alaska's natural population growth is substantially above
that of the nation as a whole. Furthermore, the response of migration
to economic opportunity is clearly evident. Once again, this empha-
sizes the openness of the Alaska labor market.
34
~
[
r~
I
L"
['
[
[.
[
[
I
' ~::.:
[
[
c
l
t
[
l
[
[
L
..:;
--'
:=,
-~~
·---_-____ ,_,_·-~···· -.:_,__ ..... :.·.: '...;._;.-~:~· .. ~'~:::-!.·.:.·-:.~·;;;yo_;'";_:; .. _
The Aleutian Islands Census Division
The Aleutian Islands Census Division encompasses all of the Aleutian
Islands, the Pribilof Isfands, and the Alaska· Peninsula from Port
Heiden west. This is the definition used by the 1970 Census and the
Alaska _Department of Labor Statistical Quarterly (the 1980 Census used
a.slightly different definition).
The economy of the Aleutian Islands Census Division in no sense
reflects a cohesive, functional economic area. This economic area is
composed of several relatively isolated communities and Federal gov-
ernment military installations. Private sector activity is almost
totally dependent upon utilization of the abundant fish resources and
includes both harvesting and processing. Harvesting of fur seals on
urA: ~ \ c-e c. '"I~\,, ,_,.~ ooJ..
St. Paul Island ~~~e an important local activity. Minor amounts of
./\
sheep ranching also occur in the region. Military installations at
Shemya and Adak, as we 11 as e 1 sewhere in the region, swe 11 the popu-
lation, employment, and income figures for the census division but
have no perceptible links with other economic units within the census
division.
PRODUCTION
Basic sector private production is mostly composed of fisheries-
related activity. Both commercial fishing and processing are widely
qi spersed throughout the region, a 1 though processing is more highly
concentrated in the eastern portion of the census division. Tables 11
through 13 provide summary data on commercial fishing. In Table 11
the salmon, shellfish, total catch, and value of catch to fishermen
35
Year
1976
1973
1970
TABLE 11. CATCH AND VALUE TO FISHERMEN,
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION
197~ TO 1976, SELECTED YEARS
(catch in million pounds; value in million dollars)
Salmon She 11 fish Tota1 1
Pounds Value Pounds Value Pounds Value
20.910 7.155 154.262 61.032 175.921 69.029
6.993 1.815 60.966 25.135 71.261 29.243
28.695 5.102 44.082 9.108 74.540 14.793
1 Totals include minor amounts of other fish. There is also an unrecon-
ciled discrepancy for the weight of shellfish in Table 14 and Table 15 for
1973.
SOURCE: Alaska Catch and Production (Alaska Department of Fish and Game,
Division of Commercial Fisheries), selected years. Data prior to
1970 not available on a comparable basis.
36
[
[
1-
[
L
[
['
[
r I -
L-l~"
L
[
[
[
[
[
[
[
~
L
r-
L
-
~
'
_)
Year
1962
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
TABLE 12. SHELLFISH HARVEST, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
CENSUS DIVISION, 1962, 1965-1976
(millions of pounds)
Kingcrab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp
6.840 ---
50.704 .017 - -
63.993 .025 .000 .000
61.990 .000 .003 .000
53.060 .953 . 142 4.375
39.895 1.380 1.662 2.657
35.408 . 717 3.558 4.399
53.997 .022 2.307 5.228
52.957 .000 4.054 14.891
56.620 . 201 6.183 . 18.947
66.812 . 061 13.998 31.245
70.002 .004 12.592 20.504
82.943 .000 30.202 41.117
Total
6.840
50.717
64.018
61.993
58.530
45.594
44.082
61.554
71.902
81.951
112.116
103. 102
154.262
-SOURCE: Alaska Catch and Production: Commercial Fisheries Statistics
(Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial
Fisheries), various years. Areas included are South Alaska
Peninsula, A1eutians East-Unalaska, Aleutians West-Adak,
and Bering Sea.· These boundaries are not strictly comparable
to the census division boundaries, but are adequate for pres-·
ent purposes.
37
--:~ __ .__ -~·-::::.'"-.~ . .-~~:.::.:~
--:>---~_,__~·--· "'"~-~ -~·:...._ ~::_-·.·.:~""-.. -:'.::~:,._:~:::~;:~; ·.~:·"...:..-..~-~.:o.--:e·.....:..:...~~~~~~~~_::~;~
TABU 13-SHEllFISH HARVEST, BY AREA,
SELECTED YEARS 1962 -1976
-(millions of pounds)
South Peninsula
Year King C.rab Dungenes.s Tanner Shrimp
1967 16.9 -. 0 -
1972 4.2 -3.9 14.8
1976 .7 -7.3 37.4
Aleutians East-Unalaska
Year King Crab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp
1967 27.1 ---
1972 10.7 -.0 . 1
1976 11.4 -.5 3.7
Aleutians West-Adak
Year King Crab Dungeness Tanner . Shrimp
1967 12.5 - --
1972 16.2 ---·
1976 .4 -. 1 -
Bering Sea
Year King Crab Dungeness Tanner Shrimp
1967 4.4 ---
1972 21.9 -. 1 --
1976 70.4 -22.3 -
Area Totals
S. Peninsula A 1 euti ans-E. Aleutians-W. Bering Sea
Year Total % Total % Total % Total % ---- --
1967 16.9 27.8 27. 1 44.5 12.5 20.5 4.4 7.2
1972 22.9 31.8 10.8 15.0 16.2 22.5 22.0 30.6
1976 45.4 29.4 15.6 10.1 .5 .3 92.7 60. 1
SOURCE: Alaska Catch and Production (Alaska Department of Fish and
Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries), selected years.
38
Total --
16.9
22.9
45.4
Total
27.1
10.8
15.6
Total
12.5
16.2
. 5
Total
4.4
22.0
92.7
Total
60.9
71.9
154.2
[
[
[
r·,
[
L
[
r~
r-
1
I
f_.
L...,
[
[
[
[
[~ .
j
[
r:
L"'
L
L
[
--~•-" ~---~·-_-.:.. _ _.__,...-_,_ __ .:..,_ __ .....;_:__;.,..._~._: .. ~·:...:-'"'-·..:_;•_.·•:; .. ;_._;:._~ . ..,__...:.. __ _:..;::_;._;,::...~--~.::...:.~:,_;~,H•'·"-:,:•t•";._,_:_:.::i~-~~,.:-:~.i~':.~:~~~.<,""".,:,:.;.;-·kji"•<s.·<.;•;;·;i_;;:~::).-:;.'di.,.!#~ii~ ... >,'•.;;.;,£'i4.~~~-t.·~4 ·,.:.1-~<-~:'i::;;;~i.*.:..¢~~,:;._~·-
-,
are indicated for recent years. The data clearly show the rapid
increase in both the value and volume of shellfish harvested in the
region.
A longer-run view of shellfish harvest is shown in Table 12 and
highlights the growth in the diversity of shellfish caught. In par-
~. ticular, both tanner crab and shrimp have provided much of the growth
I~ in the shellfish harvest, helping to offset significant declines in
king crab catches~that occurred during the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Finally, Table 17 provides data on the disparities of catch within
L
areas of the r·egi on and how these have changed over recent years.
Significant declines in king crab harvests in all areas are noted,
with the exception of the Bering Sea which has more than offset the
declines in other areas. Tanner crab and shrimp have been increas-
ingly important for the South ·Peninsula and Aleutian-East areas.
In short, major changes in the pattern of harvests, both regionally
and by species, have occurred. The South Peninsula and Bering Sea
areas show overall gains and the Aleutian-East and Aleutian West areas
show net declines. These patterns are also indicated by the percen-
__.
tage shares of total shellfish harvest shown in Table 13.
A second, important dimension of understanding commercial fishing in
the Aleutian economy is an analysis of who does the fishing. Data on
this point is fragmentary and is presented in Table 14. The king crab
39
--·------------~--· ___ .......__-~--··---~-~ -v"•··· •. -~-" ,-_. ;.:~--._::..:..::~.,: ~--';--·,.;'", -:>--:J-< .. --is~:iw~i"i~"--'2~]_:,_ .. -p.j.~~i-;-i:-6_~~i~i;i;:!:~.{,j."io:kt;> .-;;-~-;.._::;__t;~~-~.:,~~.~.o:-:::::/~'
TABLE 14. RESIDENCE OF BOATS AND GEAR LICENSE
HOLDERS FISHING THE ALEUTIANS
Proportion of King Crab Proportion of Salmon Catch by
Residence of Gear License Holder Catch Value by Boat Residence
Place. Percentage Place Percentage
Kodiak Kodiak 41.5
Alaska Peninsula
26.8
4.0
4.3
64.9
Aleutians 20.0
Dutch Harbor South Central Alaska 3.2
Out of State Anchorage 2.6
SOURCE:
Other Alaska 7.1
Non-resident 19.2
Unknow!) 6.5
King Crab: Western Alaska King Crab: Draft Fishery Management
Plan (North Pacific Fishery Management Coun~il, Anchorage;
Council Review Draft, May 1980). Derived from data on page 30.
Salmon: Derived from Table 9-8, Measuring The Socioeconomic
Impacts of Alaska's Fisheries, by George W. Rogers, et al,
(Institute of Social and Economic Research; April 1980)"
and shellfish industry tends to be dominated by nonresident boats and
crews, and the area of concentration for these vessels is the Bering
Sea. Much of the remainder of the catch is accounted for by Kodiak-
"" based boats.
40
[
r
[
r
L
T
L
[
I'
I
I b~
r·
r~
L,
l
c
[
[
r~
'-·----'
[
L
[
r
L
[
[
[
l_,
I"
[~
r·.
n I ,
L
,-\
.,
r~
I;
i,
'"
L~
~--;,i
·----'~-'• .;:_,-.•·"-•, ..;_~"~.-~·-• ~---__ :._,_.__, 0 ·--' _,,..,~. 00 '-~-~~~ 00 .:.~-., ~:;: .... :-,--:~-M~:•.::.-·c.~i.ii;£:.7;-k~-.j..,.i:J.:.li,>~•;i~~..:?-k ... ~i.o.!;: __ _:,_~ ... -:o,:..::;_:_k'?~:t:;.~~~:~~!l ... ~
'fire itn'farrm:tt:lton con tthe ss:i!lmron !-t:ra:n\EeS:t ~i:s ::e·v..en ~le!is -:preets:e ~since the
. r:~ton a:ov..~E!d :ts ss:ru:rthwesi. "illl?as;ka :~(±Ire .:{i;leuttan Census 'Division p 1 us
Kadi:ai<J}. ]'tt ~i:s ::asum&i, --wtth :s:ame ·uncertainty, that the regional
~p-'rop:or.tt.orrs caP-PlY :to ':the .~Pll:eLLttans.
The overall picture that emerges is one in which the bulk of the
commerctal fishing tn the Aleutians is carried out by fishermen and
vessels which are not resident to the Aleutians. More precise infor-
mation would be desirable but is simply not available.
A final dimension of commercial fishing to be considered is that of
employment. No systematic, periodic estimates of commercial fishing
employment are made for the Aleutians (nor for the rest of the State).
Estimates for the 1969 through 1976 period, however, have been com-
piled fbr the State and regions (Rogers, 1980) and in turn have been
used to estimate employment in the Aleutians for 1978. This has
resulted in an estimate of 756 for average annual emp 1 oyment in com-
mercial fishing. Of these, 251 are estimated to be residents of the
Aleutian Islands Census Division.
The procedure used to develop these estimates was to compute the ratio
of the 1978 to 1976 catch, by species (salmon, shellfish), and apply
this ratio to the Rogers• estimates of employment for 1976. -Since his
employment estimate was for the southwest region, it was then neces-
sary to allocate to the Aleutians the total employment thus estimated.
This was accomplished-by apportioning total employment on the basis .of
41
---~~......._.....-~..:.-~ --·~,_, .. ________ ...__·:....... ... ._:.----·-·_-;.. -···--·· '_,_.:.....c:....c:...~.:.,:.-:· ;.,L -~-~:~;{i-J..; .;:~:!-·-i~~ :.:.-.. i-.~,;,.-{-::..~-i-i;-...~~~,~~::~~<';~,~:2;.:::.:;._;~-:i~.:.W·~;.r:i...~ .. ~:::.: --~-.;;._~_ ~ :. ... :..~----_-.:.::, "'"E;;;_:·.-~~~~{'-SfZ~..s~·;:
Aleutian to total southwest region catch and implies uniform produc-
tivity throughout the southwest region. The result of these manipu-
lations is an estimate of· total Aleutian Islan.ds commercial fishing
employment. The estimate of_ resident employment was developed using
ratios presented in Table 14. It goes without saying that these
estimates of employment are very approximate and subject to consi d-
erable error.
The second major component of the fishing industry in the Aleutians is
processing. The present structure of the processing industry reflects
a mix of shore-based and floating processors engaged in canning and
freezing. The trend is toward freezing an increasing proportion of
the catch.
A tally of processor permits for 1980 compiled from Alaska Department
of Fish and Game records indicates seven shore-based facilities at
Dutch Harbor; two at Sand Point; and one each at King Cove, False
Pass, Squaw Harbor, and Port Moller. Some of these permits may cover
firms that are only buying fish for transshipment.
Several floating processor permits are held as well: Dutch Harbor (4),
Sand Point (1), and False Pass (1). In addition, some 31 permits are
held that allow for floating processors to operate throughout the
region. Not a 11 permit ho 1 ders necessari 1 y utilize their permits, and
several may actually be nothing more than buyers. It is clear, how-
ever, that processing is geographically well dispersed throughouf ihe
Aleutians.
42
[
[
r
L
r
{~
L
I'
l
ff' ; I r ,. ~-
" (~
L
rz
r
L
c
L
[
l
L
r ,
J c u
l
-~,
--l
,'
"'
";;
~
_j
::1
~<
c,•
~
_ ............ ----~----·-: · . .:......:. . .....;_._: .. : ; _::.. .. :..:. ----'"-~-~~-:. ~.,,.~{-:::.~_.,::_-. ..:..~-:. :-.:,
Employment data for processing is available for the Aleutians Census
Division from the Statistical Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor).
For 1978, 1, 621 was the average annua 1 emp 1 oynient in manufacturing,
which for the Aleutians is largely synonymous with fish processing.
As is the case with commercial fishing, it is important to determine
woat proportion of the employment was held by residents of the region.
Data regarding this question are fragmentary. In conversations with
industry and local government people, it was estimated that somewhere
between 5 and 15 percent of the employment was held by residents. A
second source of information is The Recommended Community Development
Plan: City of Unalaska, Alaska (Trick, Nyman, and Hayes: November
1977). Accardi ng to this study, 72 out of 875 basic sector jobs
(1976) were held by residents, and these jobs were primarily in fish
processing. This would indicate that about 8.2 percent of processing
jobs were held by residents. Community profiles prepared by the
Arctic Environmental Information and Data Center for King Cove, False
Pass, and Akutan also contain data that tend to support the above
sources regarding resident to nonresident ratios.
Using what appears to be a reasonable estimate of the resident share
of processing jobs, 10 percent, then 162 of 1,621 jobs were held by
residents. The remainder (1,459) were held by nonresidents. Of
these, almost all were from outside of Alaska.
43
. ~ .. ~~·;:-._~;,,,:":"
-· •"'--'--· ---·"·'-· _ ~-.:. ,_,;~.:i..:;,:o. _,.:..._,,~ .. !'_:::....:..::.:.:...~,, .... ;.i-..: .. ..:-~---~>:·.~;..:.!.::~,;_.,_,~-· .·-~ :. --·:.::...: . .:-zr;;_~;_-:~..i·_-;;7·· . .-,"".;~;:"YE.-t~:.::!.--' t_,;:)-~-~: • •. ·;:i~~~-'ii/ ·< c;._-~ :..··.:,;-,:j~::-~·;t;-E,ti'4:."_\,;,;,_ • .. · ··-·-:.:·:,:·,.~-~~~'S..-:i.-~::;-.... -ii*~~~:~-&tr-:i~~~~~!t~giffi..!.t::~h;,·~.~ ..
Significant seasonal variation exists in processing employment,
a 1 though to a much 1 esser degree than is generally the case in the
salmon industry. For 197B, average emp 1 oyment ·for the four quarters
was, respectively: 1,255 (January-March), 1,782 (April-June), 1,649
(July-September), and 1,798 (October-December). The low first quar-
ter, followed by substantial gains in the second through fourth
quarters, is typical of recent years. Available data do not indicate
how seasonal patterns may vary between residents and nonresidents.
The second e 1 ement of basic sector production in the A 1 eut i ans is
Federal government and national defense-related activity. Major
installations are located at Adak, Shemya, and Cold Bay. The largest
of these is the naval station at Adak. According to data supplied by
the Office of Information, Alaska Air Command, there are 1,781 active
duty military and civilian defense-related personnel at Adak, as well
as 1,400 dependents. These figures do not include additional civilian
personnel associated with nondefense activity such as officers' clubs,
post-exchanges, etc. Shemya and Cold Bay do not have resident depen-
dents, and military and ci vi 1 ian defense-re 1 a ted personne 1 number
approximately 490. Table 15 summarizes military and related federal
civilian employment data for the census division as a whole for 1978.
Wh i 1 e the military presence is numerically large, its economic impact
on the economy of the Aleutians is negligible. The units are largely
self-supporting and the only identifiable ties with the Aleutian or
Alaska economy are transportation services provided by Reeve Aleutian
44
[
r
[
[
L
r·
I" ., ..
c
r
I
I
l ~ ·-
[
·r-
~~
[
t
r ..
[
r ';,_ -
L
L lr --
-~:o-1
L
_ ··.·. -.: . ._<: ~~,·;-:?";;;.i~,..~·~di:-::;:1-".:_~,;~·-~:~.:<· ~-,., .. ·~:r~-:~.:~~~~-~-~-~:n~~h; .. ,;:r~f.i~=;6}f:f.~%:&*'-*~~:iritillt:\~i~s~.iH¥£§~~1i&Wi@i~ififtt4¥:,'"4;:~ .. :;~1:)~~-:::·~m~@~~3!~.td0{~·~~<-E!ii~:;t.i~~~~·1fi:~~:~~
-..,
-;
'-,
'\
,. __ .J
~--
_,.'ir._
-"
:J
-,._-
L--
__,
TABLE 15. MILITARY AND RELATED FEDERAL-CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
CENSUS D-IVISION, 1978
Employment Wages
(thousands)
Military and Related Civilian
Employment
Military Personnel (Active Duty)
Military-Related Federal Civilian
Employment
PX and NAF (Largely Part~time)1
Other Military Related Federal
Employment
3,939
3,453
486
330
156
45,952
38,950
7,072
1 ,875
5' 127
1 Post exchange and nonappropriate fund.activities, including
officer&' clubs, etc.
SOURCE: Numbe-rs:-Basic Economic Statistics of Alaska Census Divisions
(Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,
Division of Economic Enterpr·ise: November 1979).
Airways (RAA) and some contract construction. One benefit that does
result from the military contracts with RAA is the feasibility of
providing more frequent air service to other communities in the
Aleutians. Contract construction work at the military installations
is generally carried out by non-A 1 euti an based firms, either from
Alaska or out-of-state.
In summary, basic sector production in the Aleutians is almost en-
tirely related to fisheries resources or Federal government military-
related activity. Fisheries activity has shown substantial growth but
45
.... :"' :~.b-"~-.. ·,. .... :*"·-"",;;;,.,.·i·.r.~Ie:-r :~:i·i¥~2ii~tf$:q~Z.t~nl:t·f: -_.t:J.-~:.;:-::_;.F·';;.:.:1:¢g;~-;:-:;.~,i-:~-~ib'ti::;, .. £5-.,;·t·;-::.b&dt~~: .. ~~--',-.; .::-~;:>i.: :-~-~;:;;,;·_;;, J:;..: ·.jv..:..~-~i;-t~~0.i~:!;~:.:;'t,;.i<~ ~.·.;:.;.:,..,.~k~62.'f& .. -...:;;.;,;.,~-.;: .. t~~~::-~~
is still largely dominated by non-Aleutian resident participants. The
military presence, while 'substantial, has no significant relationships
with the rest of the census division.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND LABOR FORCE
Analysis of employment in the Aleutians is important for the same
reasons that it was important at the statewide level. Table 16 sum-
marizes average monthly employment for the Aleutian Census Division
for the yeal·s 1965-1978. Over the period, tota 1 emp 1 oyment has grown
substantially at an average annual rate of 5.9 percent. This growth
has been largely dependent upon growth of the fisheries industry and
State and local government. Employment in fish processing grew at an
average annual rate of 14.1 percent, while State and local government
grew at a rate of 8. 5 percent. Federa 1 government emp 1 oyment,
primarily related to national defense, fluctuated considerably over
the period but has shown no appreciable growth. The same is true for
contract construction and transportation, communications, and public
utilities. The support sector components of wholesale-retail trade;
finance, insurance, and real estate; and services have also expanded
as would be expected. Finance, insurance, and real estate grew at an
average annual rate of 18.9 percent, although much of this growth
occurred after 1973. Services grew at 22.7 percent over the period,
but this growth rate must be interpreted with caution. The data for
early years were not reported in the Statistical Quarterly (the source
document) because of disclosure rules and, hence, were estimated. The
1 arge variation in this series a 1 so raises the question of i ncons·i s-
tency in the data, possibly due to classification difficulties.
46
[
[-~
'
r-
L
r
[
L·
( -
L
c
r I
I
l -, __
(,
L_;
['
c,
.c
[
['
r .... _::)
c·
L
[
IL', i i." d l'' .. :. li !< J ' ~ 1,.. ,,IJ L .. : '7 '· ) L '~r ,r; . , ,.J .1/ ' ' ' .J ' ,. ' •·
TABLE 16. ,1\VERAGE CIVILIAN MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION, 1965-1978
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
I:ndustry
Construction 174 54 137 1125 142 195' 285 187 ' 181 180
Manufacturi .ng 292 411 422 471 349 476 657 610 675 851
Transportation,
Communications,
and Utilities 83 55 51 46 57 45 61 41 93 93
I==> Wholesale Retail 117 138 152 138 134 136 125 124 142 137 ......
Finance, Insurance
4e 4e 4e le 5e 7e 7e ae 7e and Real Estate 12
Services 12e l3e lOBe ~~32e 268 143 240 82 47 33 .
Federal Government 678 707 633 S50 523 528 574 640 704 813
State, Local
Government 128 138 157 160 174 168 178 206 227 257
TotaP 1494 1526 1714 1835 1727 1721 2178 1982 2186 2473
e = estimated.
1 Tota1 includes minor amounts of minin!g and miscellaneous employment for some years.
SOURCE: Statistical Quarterly (Alaska Department of Labor).
.. . ' J I --
1975 1976 1977
235 221 116
783 991 1130
87. 88 38
148 149 llOe
27 32 37
20 93 150
626 618 569
316 330 287
2349 2621 2474
1 I ~ .j
1978
140
1621
31
lOle
38
171
682
371
3155
J ;
i
i
i ,. :,
t,·
r::
):•·
I'
['
'• !
f ·' ,,.
k ,.
!~·:_.
i'
f.•
I ,,
J;
.
'·
~~
r r f·:
I
h
(,','.
:,jt
;<F: r·.:·
I.;~ . ,
!i' .~.
; .
---~-~ -.: ,~---~·"'* -~-~--~~:.-::::;;-_·;;L2~>-7 -~--;;.\ . .:·,.~,-.o::-.:~ ... :~~..;,\,:;.:;-;,~s·~;as~~-ii:k-;!<.~A--••-:: -=-;~*&:.:.....· ·-;~.:..::..~ . .:.~~-,~~ .. : , •. ". ·· · -;-;-~~i:·...:-::.~2'-~::.~!::;~'~r.;::;~-~;-~~.;; ... ::~~~~-:-:,:, __ ~ . _:. ::· ......... -~=...:~.:-....-.;:·;.~ ·--3.-..e~ ~ .• :t.L:.~~ :·:.--o--: _,...-_,,.:.:-·::.i;~~~~-'-:::;·;__:-. ·
Independent series on wholesale and retail trade are not available for
the entire period. For those years in which retail trade data were
available, there is steady-growth indicated. Wholesale trade appears
to be a much higher proportion of total wholesale-retail trade than is
the case statewide, and this is apparently linked to wholesale trade
activity associated with fisheries. There may also be problems with
the industrial classification.of wholesale trade.
Firms may engage -in both buying or processing of fish and also whole-
saling of fish or fish products. The firm•s industrial classification
would depend on which activity was of greater proportional signifi-
cance, and this may change from year-to-year. The result is that the
wholesale-retail sector reflects a strong mix of basic and support
sector activity. In conjunction with possible industrial classifi-
cation problems, this would account for th& apparent lack of growth in
this sector.
There is one significant omission in the employment data; this is
employment in commercial fishing. Such employment is not included in
the Statistical Quarterly data, and as indicated above, a consistent
series is not available elsewhere. Estimated commercial fishing
employment for 1978, however, was 756. If we include this figure with
total reported employment of 3,155, the commercial fishing employment
accounted for about 19 perce~t of tota 1 employment for 1978. Commer-
cial fishing plus processing employment amounts to 61 percent of total
employment.
48
....
r
f.
c
[
t'-,
L,
L
l-·
[
r-• f
~,;:-.
(:
L
c
[-~~ .. -;
c
[
L
~
L
I -
! L
L
..... ~: .. _::.~:.;-::~;:.::-:-:.~·--,~ -~-~~¥6.:ii:.:.~~d.:~A~>-· ~ ~i;,;~:ii~;;·~-: -. ::· ..... : .. i··.:,;:i:r~-:...--t · ,, :. . ~ ·-. _.,_·. :;.:.~;;;.:~~ ... ~--::<, ,~-~;;,~."~~:--;.·~:;:;:.::~~~i..~~;;_..:.· ::.:;.~~ .... -.: ~<~o.:.i:::·.:: .. ~ ... -:-.i.: :·.·::.:..;.:~~~""·!..·.:: ,'·..-.: .'-=r...,.::::_•::_.;,;...,~·--:::.:
l-
_)
---;
-·""!
I \, .
~
L_.J
"~·
)'
'-
r
:_j
---"
-"
:..-'
='
A second issue of concern relates to the residency of job holders.
Table 17 presents estimates of resident and nonresident employment for
1978. The resident/nonresident breakdown for c·ommercial fishing and
processing has already been explained. Allocation of the remainder of
employment has been accomplished as follows: State and local govern-
ment is assumed to be resident employment, as is also the case for
transportation, communications, and public utilities; finance, insur-
ance, and real estate; and services. Federal government civilian
employment was divided between defense-related and other Federal
government activity. Defense-related employment was assigned to the
nonresident category (in the sense that incomes earned had no impact
on the Aleutian economy), while other Federal government employment
was treated as resident employment.
Retail trade was assumed to reflect resident employment. Wholesale
trade includes both resident and nonresident employment, and one-half
of the employment in wholesale was treated as resident. This division
was based on discussions of wholesale trade activity in the Aleutians
with the Alaska Department of Labor.
The final industry of concern is contract construction. In conver-
sations with several labor unions and contractors who operate in the
Aleutians, it was clear that the vast majority of construction workers
in the Aleutians are not residents of the area. Based on a synthesis
of these conversations, it was estimated that 5 percent of contract
49
_:.~~~·.,,~<,:_;~,_,;·: ,.,~ .. :,.-:;;,_,it·:~~~-;1;;-::c;·u --<-:;, ':i;~~~it:;;;l;!i;;:..: ... :z;,; ··;-;--~-_.:_--..--;, :·i:;~~i:::__~.;~?&·;-%~.,~;-.:;._,;.;z;p;;.;.i-:..<.i;~~~1~~i>~rw.:r:,.-·_:.;.~ ~-!_ -~~~:::.-~~~s~-~_.·.-i-;;.-ii;,.;-~B~t ... :5;..g~~;1~~ ·<-.-~:~ n< .,-.... ~~-"'~\;...,o.;:...:i.:0!~~-~,.. ·. ·.· ··: ... ; · -.l..·;~~~kri~-:~~~~-
TABLE 17. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION
ESTIMATED RESIDENT AND NON-RESIDENT
EMPLOYMENT, 1978
Industry
Commercial Fishing
Resident
251
Manufacturing 162
Construction 7
Transportation,
Communication,
and Utilities 31
Wholesale/Retail 89
Finance, Insuranc&,
and Real Estate 38
Services · 171
Federal Government
Civilian, Military-
Related -0-
Other Federal Government 198
State Government 88
Local Government 283
Total 1318
e = estimated.
Non-Resident
505
1459
133
-o-
12
.-o-
-o-
484
·-0-
-o-
-0-
2593
Total
756
1621
140
31
lOle
38
171
484
198
88
283
3911
SOURCE: Commercial fishing; see text on production. Manufacturing
total from Statistical Quarterly; see text on production
for allocation. Federal government civilian military related;
Table J8. All other data on tables from Statistical Quarterly
(Alaska Department of Labor). For division of allocation to
resident and nonresident, see text.
50
r
.c
c
r
C,
[
,~.
c
r
I
' L '·
(,
L
r ',
(/'
~ f
·~·
E
L
L
r
L
f ~
.~ .
L
L
..:~ ·.~~,~t*.2:f.:.;+Mt}.;:...;;_, ,'.,· , · ~" .:·?.:j!i~:::r~:1{:·;.7-~ ..... ~.&t;fr~~~j.g;.'i~k:t.~1-~--~-~·':;,~t:; •. ':: .. !,-~: · :;,..·-2--:._;~L~:/·'i..i-~~~!~(~~:~--;;:-.:.~~~----;:~",;. . .:-:~··.:..<:"':.£.:~·-~ 'i .;_:,_;':; :~~::-~ ·\~ ... -~~:;-;-. r~ ~iL:-.:~":::.'!'·'-···:.~i.:'-~;:,.;;~-~:;.:~.:.:""'~{·.~2-~-·i,:'. ·.-:-~' )-:~-::·tid~-"·=~:i;::::2:s.:..~tiH~:~..,_-i:::.
__,
,\
t
---1
"
_)
I
~--'
.,
~-
..
construction employment in the Aleutians was accounted for by resi-
dents. The remainder was divided as follows: Anchorage (65 percent),
southcentral Alaska (15 percent), the-rest of the State (10 percent),
and non-Alaska (10 percent). While this breakdown is necessarily an
approximation, it does reflect the collective judgment of a wide
variety of participants in contract construction in the A 1 eut i ans.
Using the above delineation of employment between resident and
nonresident, it ~ppears that just under 34 percent of the civilian
employment in the Aleutians is held by residents. The remaining 66
percent is held by nonresidents. Available data do not permit us to
estimate comparable breakdowns of employment for other years·, and it
is not possible to speculate on how the raiio of resident-to-nonresi-
dent employment. may have changed over time.
Summary data on 1 abor force, unemp 1 oyment, and emp 1 oyment for 1970-78
are presented in Table 18. It should be noted that the employment
data in this table are not consistent with the data of the previous
tables. First, the present table does not include estimates of com-
mercial fishing employment. Second, the data reflect the number of
job holders, whereas the previous tables reflect numbers of jobs. The
data are also supposed to be resident adjusted, although the resident
employment estimate is substantially above that obtained in the
previous table.
51
_____ :c., ___ ,~~~,---:,_ ··> ";j:. ···.;;;:..-~ ' ·.;ti~-;·:~.~--:;~_::.~ ·:::.' .,.;..._,_·~ ·. ·.".";_:jJ-:2-:=;:;, :;.., .. :" ."""""'-~~~~~-.:. .... ,.....: .,_.::._:_ :::.> ......... ~.:.i::•--·--> :..::~ .,_:.:..,_;_->-:L:::~;.L . .,2,·::::...'-'·~:~_::_-. _ _,_-. ___ .:;,_;:-;:,,;:,._;;:.::.:,;·:._'1.,_..,,:::::_._::,-~:~x.::."i;. ::.:_·_:":
Of particular interest are the data on unemployment and the unemp1oy-
ment rate. Given the seasonal variation in total activity, the rates
are suprisingly low. This would suggest that several factors are at
work. First, a high degree of seasonal migration is present. Second,
Aleutian residents may tend to drop out of the labor force when
employment opportunities are not present. Third, the data include a
large proportion of government employment which tends to be seasonally
stable.
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975·
1976
1977
1978
SOURCE:
TABLE 18. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION:
CIVILIAN RESIDENT LABOR FORCE,
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, AND.UNEMPLOYMENT
1970-1975
Unemployment
Labor Force Employment UnemElo~ment Rate (%)
1688 1575 113 6.7
2041 1930 111 5.4
1880 1763 117 6.2
2109 1945 164 7.8
1968 1830 138 7.0
2371 2207 164 6.9
2302 2147 155 6.7
2102 1964 138 6.6
2343 2196 147 6.3
Alaska Labor Force Estimates by Area (Alaska Department of
Labor) various years.
52
[
r 'i 1
c
r
(
[
r·
[\' l,
,-.
I
I ,_
'L,·
(·
L
c
e,
E
L
f
"
-·
F "l---~
L
r
L;
L
-j
-,
r
I\
/
,,,
' -_:
' _,
"
'"
=
1
_,
i
~ ~-~·--~-~ -·-~ -------~--·-~
A 1978 survey of potential labor force and employment of the Aleut
population in the Aleutian region indicates that published data on
unemployment may consideraely understate the actual situation. Table
19 presents a summary of the survey results. Of the potential labor
of 575, only 278 were employed; only 222 earned $5,000 or more for
that year; and 297 were not employed.
This imp 1 i es an unemployment rate of 51. 7 percent. This probably
overstates the 11 true 11 rate since only those of the potential labor
force actually employed or seeking employment should be included in
the labor force figures used to determine employment rates. There is
no way to tell what proportion of the potential labor force would
actually seek employment if employment opportunities were available,
but it appears. that substanial real unemployment exists that is not
reflected in published statistics.
In summary, considerable growth in employment in the Aleutians has
been evident. This has occurred mainly in response to growth of
fisheries-related activity. This growth has also led to growth of
employment in the support sector. While historical data are not
ava i 1 ab 1 e to indicate trends, nonresident emp 1 oyment accounts for a
dominant proportion of total employment. It also appears that the
Native Aleut population has not participated fully in the employment
opportunities reflected by overall growth in total employment.
Whether this is by choice or due to other reasons is not known.
53
~--· .:;~----~---~-~·-::::....----.::. ~...,-·:., ':;__:___ _____ ~.-_~~"-~-··~ -~. ...;, -.::,·:.__:._:~".. -:~ -~~-,---~. ·-:.:-.. ·_-;_._~·.;'_. ···.,;:~.::· --~·-.• __ -.:..:__··-""----'---_.c::.::c"'-··::...i::~~ :.:.--;--=-~~--:\::.:·. "_ -•M-:,_ __ ~;._ • .;.:_., ,:, '• ,00., '<,_.:!_.
a.
b.
TABLE 19. REPORT OF LABOR FORCE 1978
COMPILED BY BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS
ANCHORAGE AGENCY.
Total Male
Total Aleut population within
the Aleutian region 2,139 1 , 155
Total under 16 years of
age included on line 11 a11 963 520
Resident Population of Working Age within the· Aleutian Region
c. Total 16 years and over
(a minus b) 1,176 635
d. 16-24 years 447 241
e. 25-34 years 235 127
f. 35-44 years 212 114
g. 45-64 years 212 114
h. 65 years and over 70 38
i. Not in labor force (16 years
and over) Total (j+k+l+m) 601 243
j. Students (16 years and over,
including those away at
school) 364 196
k. Men, physically or mentally
disabled, retired, institu-
tionalized, etc. 47 47
1. Women for whom no child care
substitutes are available 133
m. Women. housewives_ ohvsicallv
6 --;, .-•• ., ------..,
or mentally disabled, insti-
tutionalized, etc. 57
n. Potential labor force (16 years
and over) (c minus i) 575 392
o. Employed, Total (p+q) 278 185
p. Employed, earning 5,000 or
more a year (all jobs) 222 148
q. Employed, earning less than
5,000 a year (all jobs) 56 37
r. Not employed (n minus o) 297 207
SOURCE: Tribal Specific Health Plan (Aleutian-Pribilof Islands
Association Health Department, undated).
54
Female
984
443
541
206
108
98
98
32
357
167
133
57
183
93
74
19
90
[
r l 1
c
r;,
f L
[
c~
(\~
r~
I
I
\.
(
l
[
e
l~
L
(
<
'
r ~--~
l
' : L;
L
-~ · :..~~-:;_.::.....:.:.:;.~':::~.:..........:_,.:.....:..:.:~_,_:;,...~.:::-:._,_: · ._,. · '-'· -~~~--~::~k~':,'.::~.-;c;<,:·:-·-~-~-:;.:;::_~i:._i:._:~~.L.j'-"·.;' .,:;::. ·. '' ·" - · o:;:x_·-~: ..;-__ ._ ·-'·-·~ ·., . .--_~ __ --'; ___ . __ .~cs~.._~.;::-__:_-_:.-.. ~:-:!:_:::.:·;:_,_.!_,_~_-__,_·-:_;;-:::·:.-:~::.._:.:;;.:;.. ... -~.:._:;.;_ -~-·---'-<:·_;_ ::;. /,..:;:.._.,_. :.::~.:...:L:::~~-:;;~-~~-::.: .
. _,
,.
--,
J
,.r'
-;
J
:,
J
"--'
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income data for the Aleutian Census Division have been com-
pi 1 ed for the years 1965-1-978 and are presented-in Tab 1 e 20. Growth
in current dollar total personal income has been at a rate of about
7.4 percent per year, while pe~ capita income has grown at about 7.2
percent per year. When measured in constant do 11 ars, however, the
growth has been substantially less. Real per capita income grew at
1.4 percent, while real total personal income grew at 1.6 percent over
the period.
Several aspects of the data suggest that the numbers be interpreted
with caution. First, the Anchorage Consumer Price Index was used to
deflate the persona 1 income series s i nee no more specific index is
available. He.nce, the adjustment is only approximate. Second, a
1 arge proportion of the income is re 1 a ted to mi 1 i tary and federa 1
civilian employment directly linked to military activity. Since this
income does not enter the A 1 euti an economy in any meaningful sense,
its inclusion is misleading in terms of considering overall economic
activity.
Third, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) which compiles the
data makes a resident adjustment, there is some question as to the
validity of the adjustment. In particular, it is not clear to what
extent the adjustment captures the effects of commerical fishing and
processing incomes flowing out of the region. Finally, an analysis of
55
-·-·-------~ ... _ __,_ __ --~-: __ ..._ _ _..,.__~·....:...._:__ ... ~
TABLE 20. PERSONAL INCOME BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE:
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENSUS DIVISION, 1965-1978
-
Current Dollars Constant (1978) Dollars
Total Total
(mi 11 ions) Per Capita (millions) Per Capita
1965 33.951 4,721 70.207 9,763
1966 36.093 4,735 71.818 9,422
1967 38.886 4,727 75.750 9,208
1968 41.688 5,256 79.149 9,979
1969 43.677 5,484 79.296 9,956
1970 53.671 6,627 93.763 11,577
1971 50.655 6,447 86.255 10,978
1972 49.968 6,580 83.267 10,965
1973 60.849 8,235 95.746 12,958
1974 rr nr.Jt 8,280 ".q "'A"' 11,520 OO.UO<t ::u .. ::l<t::l
1975 72.717 9,250 89.995 11,448
1976
1977 79.765 9,932 87.638 10,912
1978 85.734 11,6J9 85.734 11,619
SOURCE: Current dollar income figures from U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Constant dollar figures deflated
by authors, using Anchorage Consumer Price Index.
transfer payments reported for the region shows sizable amounts related
to federal military and related civilian employment that probably had
no effect on the Aleutian economy.
For these and other reasons, we have attempted to develop an estimate
of personal income for 1978 that more accurately reflects the sources
and disposition ~f personal income for the region. These estimates
are shown in Table 21.
S6
[
[
[
r
r· t
r
,.,
f .,,
r~
I
I \ __ -
r· ~
[
·r· ' .
'
t
.[:
.. ,
r.
l
c
L
l::::..i
[
.:...--_;__,_..:.:~____,.,...:...:.---=.:~---~-· -:.;.:o___-__ ~------'----·-:...-____ ............. ___ _____, __ _ . c. ---="··'=~-~~------~-----'--:......____ _____ ...:....; .. .;_ __ :,:__, _ _-___ ;_ ___ .
-1
TABLE 21. ALEUTIAlf ISLANPS. PERSOI~AL INCOI"iE, 1978
_, BY SECTOR, COMPONENTS, AN.D GEOGRAPHI_C DISPOSITION
I
'.
,\
,):;ccne ..
-~ Support Contract Ccr.rnerci a 1 Fish Fed. Gov. Fed. Gov. State &
Sectcr Construction Fishing Processing Chi1i~n Mi1 i tary local Gcvt. Total -.;
EHDOGEHOUS·HOUSEHCLDS:
,TC'i.:.L .L.LLQCf;,lt:D BY 11\D:JSTRY
~ages & Salaries-3.715 0.381 0 2.353 3.022 ' 0 5.206 H.sn.
-~Other Labor Ir.~cme o.6gs 0.071 0 o.qo 0 . 0 0 1.205
Prcprietcrs' 1nco~~ O.S51 0.098 12.250 0 0 . 0 0 13.2S9 ·-·J
t;;;~.Ll OCJ.. TED CC:X?Ql\EJ-iTS:
',o\ vi dent!s, lnteres t,
~=-~c Rer1.s 0.~17
··"Transfer Faym;nts . 3. 501
-1 Q;..:T GF R~G101t:
~wagEs~ Sblaries .. 0 -~ Ar.cbc·rape 0 4.709 0 0 0 0 4.709
Sc~:tt.c:ntra1 0 , .087 0 0 0 0 0 , .087
R;st of State 0 0.725 0 0 0 0 0 O.i25
R~st cf World 0.275 0. 7.25 0 21.173 5.867 40.584 0 58.E24
Other labor Jr.coll">e
Anchcr~se 0 0.881 . 0 .o 0 0 0 O.E81
$:)uthcentra 1 0 0.203 0 0 0 0 0 0.203
R,est of State 0 0.1::6 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 .. 0.135
~est of \.for1d 0.051 0.136 0 3.958 o:· 0 0 .: 4.145
C-'>
Frr.:pdetors' ir.cc;;~e
0.780 0 0 0 0 0.780 ' Arachorase 0 0
.~
Southcentra1 0 0 33.500 0 0 0 0 33.600
R~st cf Stcte 0 0 2.130 0 0 0 0 2.130
~est of Hcrid 0 0 55.870 0 0 0 0 56.870
J --UNALL!JCATEO, OUT OF REGiON:
, Oi\'ideds, '!nterest,
and Re:nts 1. 623:'" ~·,.-·Re:s-t· cf rJ:;rl d --. -
Trans'fus ~.813• ~est ·cf \ll~r1d .
701AL 5.687 9.152 105.630 27.924 8.889 . -<0.584 5.205 213.325
A
-,\
SOURCE: See text on personal income.
57
• ~~----... ~* • •• _-... _, •. ; __ ·:-:: ·-:~· _:. ;":::.:!iJ:~"i.~ •.:..~·~:;.i..__:" -~--~ ;;:~:..:,;~.;· ·,.. .• , ·-.·-~:. ·,:.:.:../:i?:::."-..:.::.2:.·": :-;-·.:-::;_f:i§fu"ti o-:.;{.;.:.:?;:.::.-;~...;:.;..;g~<·::;•<'-=.f.r·:-.~ .-_.·: ·._> , .. ~-:.":;..~:..:..:·~"' -~;:--. ..; .:z ... ;;;· .i:,;_~ .. --::..1:.~~~;-.<--~-:~."~v:,-:__,:;;~~.~ij~@:-.;-;~-·~ -:-~~~:.::, •. .::
As shown in the tab 1 e, we have indicated persona 1 income sources by
type, accru-ing from the b"road industrial classifications designated at
the top of the table. The-left hand column of the table indicates the
estimated breakdown of income to resident and nonresident recipients.
Inclusion of the military and related civilian federal income as non-
resident is a judgmental decision based on the fact that these incomes
do not appear to enter the general income stream of the Aleutian
economy, but rather reflect enclave activity.
While much of the basis for allocating income has already been estab-
lished in preceding sections of this study dealing with the Aleutians,
there are several points trat need to be expanded. In general, data
on wages and salary income were obtained from the Statistical Quarterly
for appropriate years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis data on "other
labor income" were apportioned to specific private sector industries
on a proportional basis and then assigned to either resident or non-
resident categories in proportion to resident/nonresident wage and
salary incomes. Dividends, interest, and rent were allocated to
residents and nonresidents on the basis of total wage and salary
income. Total transfer payments were adjusted to assign military
transfers (except for veterans' pensions) to the nonresident category.
In addition, 10 percent of federal civilian retirement payments were
assigned to residents, with the remainder assigned to nonresidents.
With the exception of these adjustments, the remainder of transfer
payments were assigned to residents.
58
r
r ,_,
,,
l'
.r
'l ~
I
\
r~
~I
r \_-.~
r-
' I \~ -
{'
{
[
~"' .,
t~
•'
L·' .. -
~
ti
(
t~
L
I i c
L
L
-.
.. 'l
.-~l
~,
. ,
;i
~ ......
·-t
••J
i
'I' __ 1
. \ .. ~
..
~
~ "!
~
. '····:.:; ·.:c~i'::~·i;.;j:~~:;;"_ .:_:.£ .i.::;~.;;,--';-:"·-.. --~:.J:;: t···:;;.";_;·,f~~-"": r·· ;-:..:_:-<::~-~:;,_ "~ ~'~-~::::: ;-::.J,~.;::Ji;j.·.~:-if.-.~:.,,;:J;~:.<.::. ;~-:--;. ;'-"~ij.~.--~·~:; .;.>:<~ -~~ ,,_ .. /'..> .:·~;;.._~;. .:~; :;:•>;.:;f:<"'&:;-:;:.,~.i:?-·~~!-::,/::·; . .": ~~-.. ;_,·, • : .~--::;~-. ·•.---~0'.::.<-:<l. ~\~:::.-:: :;-.:~:~"-0~~-:;-_L,._:: :_{i:;_:_:· :-...:. :;~".:,;_~:_~;..~;__.;--;.::.;_·:=._:_;;;.:_
Proprietor's income is the income of self-employed and unincorporated
enterprises. A large portion of this component for the Aleutians
should reflect commercial -fishing income, and it was felt that BEA
figures.dfd not adequately reflect this income. An estimate of non-
commercial fishing proprietor's income was made by assuming that the
p~oportion of proprietor's income to wage and salary plus other labor
income was the same for the State as for the Aleutians. This led to
an estimate of noncommercial fishing proprietor's income of 4.1
mi 11 ion dollars .
Proprietor's income from commercial fishing was based on the value of
catch. No reiiable data exist on ""et profits from commercial fishing.
It has been estimated, however, that about 35 to 40 percent of the
value of 'catch. is reflected in labor income (Scott, Prospects for a
Bottomfishing Industry in Alaska); hence, 35 percent of the value of
catch has been used to estimate proprietor's income. This figure has
been used in conjunction with the estimated 1978 southwest region
value of catch to estimate proprietor's income, as shown in the table,
and was allocated by factors established in Table 18 .
In genera 1, the data for 1978 show tota 1 persona 1 income of 213.3
million. Of this total, residents who are part of the nonenclave
economy of the region accrued 33 mi 11 ion do 11 ars. Of the 180 mi 11 ion
dollars accruing to nonresidents, about 46.5 million dollars represent
wage and salary payments to military personnel and related federal
.. -
civilian employees, with the remainder (133.9 million dollars) goi.ng
to other nonresidents.
59
In terms of the regional allocation of the 180 million dollars, about
6.4 million dollars flowed to the Anchorage region; while 34.9 million
dollars went to the south-central region (primarily Kodiak), with an
additional 3.0 million dollars going to the rest of the State. About
136.1 million dollars primarily from commercial fishing and defense-
related activities appeared to flow outside the State. Thus, while
total personal income was substantial, over 84 percent of the income
created by production in the Aleutians flowed out of the Aleutian
region. These are indeed very high leakages and present a different
picture of the Aleutian economy than that indicated by the BEA
personal income data.
In addition to the analysis of total and per capita income, it is
again appropriate to consider the distribution of income. Recent data
on income distribution are not available, but the Bureau of Indian
Affairs prepared an estimate of the 1974 distribution of income which
is presented in Table 22. The distribution is shown for both Native
and white families. Median income for the two groups is similar, and
both are well below the statewide figure of 12,443 dollars for the
same year. The greatest disparity between Native and white families
appears in the under-5, 000 do 11 ar groups, with 26 percent of the
Native families and 13.8 percent of white families with incomes below
5, 000 do 11 ars. It should be noted that the non-Native families
include military personnel, whose incomes tend to flatten the distri-
bution somewhat; whereas for the Native distribution, the under-5,000
dollar and over-15,000 dollar income categories are proportionately
more important.
60
[
r L
J~
I
r L
r
1
·,'
~ --··
r
If
t.-
r I
f
'~-::!
r
t
[
e
t:
[··,
'
-j
[
t l_.~
L
(
L L
L
:...·~.c~~ .. ;,;.L.:.:::.:'..:~;;.;__;_i:.:_.:.~:~~i.~·~~-· ,;.i-f;.~-~~:;;-.; .. :g;-~~;~~.::~·: ;.-;.~'i .::; .. '!,·,..;t :-:-:·>~.J.;,:: . .::·~: .. , ···stt ·._,;.·.i,;.._·::--tt-J:,::i,~ .. :.:i::.5.~4:~.;;:~-.~-.:,:_-:;}:;:'::_~;'~~ ;~.::;.2 .. : .. _, ··-i,:;,;;.~0_i~;::,'. r)~.o'-;i..,,.,-.1;.;.;.:, ... ~, .• ~~i.::.:_~ -"-~·;,·-~.:.,_-!..;_·"-<::.-~-·~·;£:·. _..;.~:....:.:.::...:~-'-"";.:.:~.--::~~~.~~
-1
~
... ,
\
-"
e,
__ _j
'
r;
'l
c...J
::;
J
,J
I
TABLE 22. FAMILY INCOME: NUMBER AND PERCENT OF NATIVE
AND WHITE FAMILIES BY INCOME LEVELS
-ALEUT CORPORATION AREA
Native White
No. of Families Percent No. of Families Percent
Under 1,000 7 2. 1 0 0
1,000-1,999 16 4. 9 6 1.0
2;000-2,999 13 4.0 7 1.1
3,000-3,999 30 9.2 31 4.9
4,000-4,999 19 5.8 45 7.1
5,000-5,999 20 6. 1 55 8.7
6,000-6,999 26 8.0 65 10.3
7,000-7,999 25 7.7 63 10.0
8,000-8,999 21 6.4 72 11.4
9,000-9,999 18 5.5 37 5.9
10,000-11,999 40 12.2 88 13.9
12,000-14,999 -31 9.5 102 16.2
15,000-24,999 56 17~ 1 43 6.8
25,000-49,999 5 1.5 17 2.7
50,000 0 -· 0 0
Median Income $8,357 $8,604
..;,.
SOURCE: Tribal Specific Health Plan (Aleutian-Pribilof Islands Association
Health Department, undated).
61
-·-----~'-':i _· _:,~i-:c_'::-.0 '-"'-'~~~-· ~~~-~:_ _ _:s :c.~-.c:Cci. .-- · c· · · .. -"-""·· .·.·~c ;:~_:.:_.:_.-'---""----'~--·----~------·'·-.:--~:..-----···-"""~---'< .· ...... ~-'-~'--.· ' ...... ,,,,._ . .:...·---~---~"';
POPULATION
Aggregate population data for 1960 and the years 1970-78 are presented
in Table 23; it includes -total resident and civilian population and
military population. Considerable variation in the military popula-
tion is evident; although for most of the period, it averaged a little
over 3,000. For recent years, it has been somewhat lower, dropping to
1,655 in 1978. Total civilian population has shown a steady increase,
attributable to both natural increase and net in-migration. Table 28
shows the component of change in both civilian and military population
over the 1970-78 period. Civilian population has grown at about 4.8
percent, with natural increase accounting for 47 percent of the total
increase. The remainder is accounted for by net in-migration.
Table 24 provides data on population by community and by Native and
non-Native components. The data totals are not in strict agreement
with the other population data presented but do provide a generally
accurate picture of the population distribution in the census divi-
sion, with major nongovernment-based communities at King Cove, Sand
Point, St. Paul, and Unalaska. It is no coincidence that (with the
exception of St. Paul) these are the major centers of commercial
fishing activity in the Aleutians.
62
r
r
/ r~
l
f:
r·
r~
L
r
r~
I
l tL-.i:
(
L
r \
,[
f' L
L)
f' t
f'
-) >
L
(
I :
L
L
· --~~-· :-_;);_ . .;._<:::·_i..~..,:_,~ -· ··~. . .:~---':.:l_._:,{~:;.}:-:·,·.::... .. :-~~-_::~· ""·>·.;--;·· .. ·'" •. ·~ .. , -~;· i.,;::.~~~"""··· . .-:~ ;,"·-..: -·~ ... L ---·-·-·-~_:__:::_:.:_ ___ ...:_ __ __,._..__,~_::~: .• -'-~··-'·-~-.. .0:..:...-.:....... .. __ "_;:_.....__ ............. :_..:..~ •• ~~~:
-.)
..
)
\
~.
-_1
'3
_J
TABLE 23. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CIVILIAN AND TOTAL RESIDENT
1960
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
POPULATION: 1960, 1970-1978
-
Total Resident Total Civilian
Population Population
6,011 2,633
8,057 4,368
7,896 4,285
7,245 4,634
6,914 3,994
7,714 4,506
7,086 4,208
8,282 5,300
7,686 4,896
8,000 6,345
TABLE 28. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: COMPONENTS OF
POPULATION CHANGE, 1970-78
1970 Population 8,057
Births 1,106
Deaths 176
Natural Increase 930
Net Migration
Civilian
Military
1978 Population
1,047
-2,034
8,000
SOURCE: Alaska D~par"t;ment of Labor
63
Military
3,378
3,689
3,611
2,611
2,920
3,208
2,878
2,982
2,790
1,655
~----~......;. ~... -~ -:.· ~"':·:-· · ,.. ·.:_·r;,-:::z;.:.J;.--."··,-_,..::.:;t:=, ~-~-ci:.:..:£.;;,:·-· ... -·--·. _, .. , : ~ ~ £~..,' . __ ,_ __ . .:;_:: _______ ,.:..:.....--· -·-·-·~---:~:....._;...... __ ...:-=.:o.--·--··' ..::... __ _; ____ .::;:.-.:.-'-'._,_~,.,.~,,~"--± ,_-.~_!_._:..::.-..~.1!:.-~ ..... ~---=·-'·-=·
Akutan-
Atka
Bel kofski
False Pass
King Cove 1 .
Nelson Lagoon
Nikolski
Sand Pointl
St. George
St. Paul
Unalaska
Other
TABLE 24. ALEUT REGION POPULATION
BY COMMUNITY, 1977
Native Non-Native Total
69 5 74
92 3 95
14 -14
55 2 57
425 142 567
49 6 55
56 2 58
490 339 829
175 g' 184
437 63 500
.
168 557 725
126 5,7002 5,826
Transient.
360 -800
120
60
65
700 -3,000
Total 2,156 6,828 8,984 1 ,305 -4,045
1 City Manager's figures.
2 Inc1udes military population.
SOURCE: Tribal Specific Health Plan (A1eutian-Pribilof Islands
Association Health Department, undated).
64
~~
'{_
c
fl
'i.
f~
r
L.
I I
[-~
"
r· ,
I .
t~ ~
( c
r
f~
f
L
L
r t_,
t
{_
L
L
L
.-..
~:.
__;
\ __ ,,
.
-,.,i
r\
.\
\I ,.,
~
,
~ ... 1
::::;
~'"
~--'i
~
,...'
,._;
~
III. METHODOLOGY
Introduction
The remainder of this study develops projections of economic and
demographic impacts of OCS lease sale 83, scheduled for March 1984 in
the Navarin Basin. The projections are calculated using the MAP and
SCIMP models developed at the University of Alaska's Institute of
Social and Economic Research. The SCIMP model is used for projecting
impacts for the A 1 euti an Is 1 ands, and the MAP mode 1 is used for
projecting statewide impacts.
The procedure followed in using each model is roughly the same. Each
model 1 s projections are based on numerous assumptions about the
structure of the economy and factors determining population growth, as
well as assumptions about the exogenous or independent factors which
wil ~ , drive growth in the economy. The mode 1 s do not predict the
future; they merely calculate the consequences of the assumptions
which are put into them.
Impact analysis, as carried out in the present study, is based upon a
comparison of sets of economic and demographic projections, where one
set is the standard or base case set. The base case serves as a frame
of reference against which the economic and demographic changes
resulting from the proposed OCS lease sale can be measured and
evaluated.
65
There are two components of this process that are of particular con-
cern. First is the question of the accuracy and consistency of the
projections. Generally speaking, this is dependent upon the validity
of the assumptions uti 1 i zed regarding future economic growth of the
exogenous variables and the projection methodology employed. More
will be said on both of these points below.
The second concern relates to the degree of information contained in
the projections. Spedfically, do the projections contain the infor-
mation that is necessary to adequately interpret and evaluate the
impacts?
While aggregate data on economic and demographic variables generated
using the projections methodology employed in this study will answer
many questions, it must be recognized that there w1ll be omissi.ons as
well.
At the root of impact analysis is the issue of how economic well-
being, both individually and collectively, will be affected by the
proposed action. Two major problems are associated with this process.
First it is not possible to measure all impacts that will result from
the lease sale. In part this is due to the volume of information that
would be required and the inadequacy of the existing methodology to
capture all effects at an acceptable level of cost.
66
[
[
r~
f" l.
r
['
L
[
f'
I
I
l-~~
(
L
f. t'
l
r L
L
r -
\_ __
F
.r L
(-
L
c
--<
'•
\
'.
1
--,~
\ ·-·'
-·~,
--1
·_-l
_j
_)
-__ , ______ .:_,_:._:~~-:: ... i:..._:;.:_·~·· -·.:.::.,__;_.:: .. ~::..,;, .. ...._ .':'--..-· ~·--· -·-· ·-· ·,_;,_.:;_:._:.._~ ·--~-· ------~'""--'-•'--·.---~---------···-··---·---------~---·~----------------·-·-
The more serious problem is that many of the effects are not measur-
able. Whi 1 e rea 11 ocat ion of resources within the context of the
functioning of the market, in response to economic change, is
desirable from the perspective of efficiency, change on the order of
magnitude implied by OCS activity may also lead to situations of
market fai 1 ure and the presence of externa 1 it i es. These are often
difficult to identify and are certainly difficult to measure.
Even if these effects could be isolated they are usually inseparable
from a further problem, that of income redistribution. Changes in
income distribution and the reiative economic position of individuals
resulting from OCS activity necessarily implies that there win be
lossers and gainers and associated changes in economic welfare. These
are problems that involve normative economic judgements and cannot be
dealt with by impact analysis alone. In short, comparative impact
analysis provides only part of the information necessary for decision
making.
The MAP Model
We can now turn to a discussion of the models util1zed in developing
the projections. At the statewide level, the MAP econometric model
has been used. For documentation of the MAP model, see Goldsmith,
Man-in-the-Arctic Program: Alaska Economic Model Documentation. The
MAP statewide mode 1 is actually a system of mode 1 s composed of eco-
nomic, fiscal, and population models. The three are interdependent,
as shown schematically in Figure 2.
67
--:!· • ..,·..:...... .... ~:.. .... -_:... .. ·.
-"'"'"-'-'"""'·-~---·-=·-~·: -~·:.,;.-: .. ,: :-.~, , __ . ~:: ~-;,._.;:·.· .,:.-:''" ~-· -"-"--'--''-""''''--"-'-''"'-..:~1.:.;/ ' : --~-~'"-· ".: ---.-<,·~---~~--~-~-.....;....:..::-.o_.;...:-~.::::~~~~'t-: . ..:-~-::.:;.:..:.x..:.~~-'"-:..--'·'"-'"-"~.:.. .. : .. ~.;~ .. ~-'-... .:..:.:_. __ ~;;:;.:.;.:;;--.....;.j.;..-:;:,.'~_,_._.:.~"""~:-..r..~;;.:...;_~:,.;~.-:
FIGURE 2: The MAP Statewide Model
..;,;_ · Economic --~ -Model
~r ~r
~Poiulation I .. Fiscal
Model Model
68
f
r
r·
(f t
r '·'
r
r
r -~'
r I
IJ
'1 • ..,
' {
L
r -~~
L
t~ L
L
r
r;
:f t
l l ...
'-.-=-·
L
__,
\
~----;
.,.-;::: .... ,
-~J
_--!
-'
' ~J
-~
-,
"'
-==-"""''
In essence, this states that the economic model receives input from
the fiscal and population models, the fiscal model receives input from
the economic and population models, and the population model utilizes
input from the economic mode 1 s, but not directly from the fi sea 1
mode 1. Thus, when we ta 1 k about the economic mode 1 we are really
d~scribing the interaction of three models. To simplify things some-
what we can describe the important linkages between submodels and then
consider the economic model in more detail.
The population-economic model link is the source of population esti-
mates that are of direct interest, and reflect both natural population
change and migration induced by changes in economic conditions. The
population estimates are also used by the economic model for purposes
of computing various per capita values for economic variables .
The significant 1 ink with the fi sea 1 mode 1 re 1 ates to the ro 1 e of
State government expenditures as a source of major economic stimulus
to the aggregate level of economic activity. In turn, State govern-
ment (and 1 oca 1 government) expenditures are dependent upon two key
factors, the overall level of economic activity and the level of
activity in the petroleum industry. The system allows for a variety
of po 1 icy choices regarding state government spending and is one of
the key points to consider in assessing economic forecasts.
69
--------~------------·---'-----~---'-----_ _:~:_...:,~----"--~-....,___ ______ _:. -------·-=-· • __ .,J2__._,_; __ n,·-•---"···"~---~--:~~;:;,..;,;;.:,..;~--;.:c.:;.~;;;.~-:<.~:C:1">.0:. .. ,;',;.,...,~~'i~·,i;.)i.;.~~_.:~~~
We :c:aun :nnw -:t.uJor:m-t'ID a 'mmsiicdelr:alt-:i\tXlil ;off the ecan:anci·c model component of
the syst.em..
The M'AP model heJ,ongs to a c]iaS:s of econometric models that are known
as d-:i.s:agg.re:gate econanr;k b:as:e models.. ln essence, economic activity
is cl as.si f'i ed as ei·the:r endogenous o.r exogenous ( o.r basic}. Exogenous
act·i vity dete,rnri nes the 1 evel o.f endogenous activity, and the specific
relationships between the two components of economic activity are what
make up the system of equations that are the econometric model. These
models can be quite simple or rather complex, and the MAP model falls
in this latter category.
As can be seen in Figure 3, determination of industrial production
involves the impact of exogenous sector activity, which includes for-
estry, fisheries, agriculture and other manufacturing, as we 11 as
Federal government wages and salaries. Other exogenous sector
activity includes the petroleum industry and components of contract
construction such as major pipelines. State and local government
expenditures may also be considered as exogenous for discussion
purposes, although there is some interdependence between these
expenditures and total economic activity. It should be noted that in
constructing scenarios for forecasting or projection purposes it is
primarily these exogenous variables that must be provided.
70
[
r I
r·
[
L
r L
L
L
1'·
I
l
II
l_
r·
c· t,
[
-='_
--
t· ·Lj
[:
L;
r ·-..._·
[
r L.
l L ~~
L
-1
---,
' _j
_)
::J
_j
::.i
SOURCE:
iFIT~ 3~ THE :MA,-p··ST.ATElHD:E ECONOMIC MOJ.)EL
EXOG£NO~~ SECTORS
F"orestry
Fisht"r·ies
i=f'dt"rOI ~;,ver.n::-:ent
~>orieullure
Other mcnu!ct:Su:-inQ
I
. ,
Slole ond
loco I k--+ P~\roleum·
Goon-rnm~nt
.. 1 I C=n•lru~·lion 1
-... 1 ..
-: lnduslriol f;'rodu:lion l r·
t
Employme<~l
Wo9es ond
So:aries
Personal
Inc om~
o:.~oscblf
Personal
Inc om~
..,..
R•ol Dispcsot>le
Personal
Income
· .
.. -. -
~
i
S:J?PCilT S£CTOR
T1o6e
Fincn::e
s~n .. icc-s
i'ron5poncfion
Commun~cctio!'lt
Publie l:lililfe-s.
T
!·ian-In-The-Arctic Program Alaskan Economic l·iodel Documentatiq!!
(I SER, 197 9).
71
• ·-··. _ .. .....:.......---·---: .:·----~·-"···-~~--· ~· -~_,...:.._._......:.,._,..:.__: __ ._. __ ....•••• ~ ·-.', . _ ;·..;.:..;.....:!.:..:-· _, ·-·-· -~--. .....:_-:. _ -·---~,_.......,.,_..._ • ............_._ ---~ .••• • .-_,~~--~-.: . ...;.-~:~.::·:..'--'..:..~-~-,_._:__...._._ • ."e •. ·-·~ ~..._-.-_~_,..:,c_;.:;,_:.-,.~;'.~L-·.:~~;~~.,_+;,:_;_~h;:";..:;;,;;:._~;-~ ~·~~ .. :.d~i~~
These exogenous variables combine with demand from the support sector
and endogenous construction to generate tota 1 industria 1 production.
Industrial production, through a series of steps, determines employ-
ment and income, and finally real disposable personal income, which in
turn is a determinant of support sector and endogenous construction
economic activity. This means that aggregate production depends on
both exogenously determined and endogenously determined economic
activity, where endogenous activity depends on total activity. As
such, the system is a simultaneous equation structure.
It should also be noted that certain other variables enter the model
as well. In particular, wage rates are used in determining total wage .
and salary payments, where the wage rates are in part dependent upon
U.S. wage rates, which are determined exogenously. It should also be
observed that th11 model is particularly sensitive to the wage rates
used.
The SCIMP Model
For the Aleutian Islands Census Division projections have been devel-
oped using the small community population impact model (SCIMP). For
documentation see Gunnar Knapp, 11 The Small Community Impact Model:
Structure, Variable Definitions, and Input Assumptions,11 May 1982.
Whereas the MAP model is classified as an econometric model, SCIMP is
technically an accounting model. A system of equations describes the
economic and demographic structure of the economic system. In turn
parameters of the equations and a set of exogenous variable in"ptJts
72
r
L
['
r
r -~--
1
J
L.
r
r~
'I
L<
c·
_·[
r=: t _,
It
(
L
L
[
L
r-
~-
I ,.-"--~-----"
L
-1
__ J
~ ~'
·-~-1
'
_,
j
~1
_j
--;;
='
----,
,._,
'~. <-~-~~--~--~-~-: ;. _.:;;_.:::.~:t .;-·~ .. , . __ , ~ · :,_..,;;.,. :-'·.-;s.::\:::)i.·<S'":-::.r;~-~,·~i;.: ·~~:< .. ·:-o~~.:~,.+ . ..,. ......... -!-'_.. .. _~,;._, ...... ;..,.,._.....-;,;;~;~, .... ~· ~.::o·--.i12 ~;, .. .,..;:-.-,;·.s.~~ . ..:~~"· .... ~·:: . .,;;;.;,;:~/-::.-:.,;,. :·~ -ii~·~·*·~~~;..:'-~~~.·;i2.:.:.:.;;{~.~-:,.h :.i;::~~;i_·;if..~,:i~~;;is.:_~~!.
provide the numerical basis for utilizing the model for projection
purposes. It is the determination of parameters for the mode 1 that
distinguishes SCIMP from econometric models.
In an econometric model, parameters are typically determined by the
a~plication of econometric methods to historical time series or cross
section data, and the parameter estimates are an integral component of
the model. In the case of SCIMP the parameters are determined exog-
enously by a variety of ~eans, i ncl udi ng point estimates, assumptions
based on other research, and in some instances by econometric esti-
mation techniques. In other words, in SCIMP both the parameters and
exogenous variable data are inputs, while in an econometric model the
~
parameter estimates are an integral part of.the model.
There ate both advantages and shortcomings to this approach. On the
positive side, SCIMP is generally applicable to small regional
economies, rather than being region speci fie, as would be the case
with an econometric model. This results in substantially more limited
data requirements than is the case for a fully estimated econometric
model. The shortcoming is also indicated by the less stringent data
requirements. Specifically, the qua 1 ity of the parameter estimates
may not be as great as that obtained by econometric techniques.
73 -
] I .J vl
-j
~
··•
~
~.J
~"'.
...J
_·.:.~. ·,___, __ : . '• ::_:.·;: ; .. ~·~.~--.~-:.:::..::::..~::.·::~: ... ~:..~f;;_',;._~
IV~ MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
This chapter discusses the assumptions used in running the MAP and
SCIMP models. These include ·assumptions about the structure of the
statewide and regional economies, the independent factors which
would determine economic growth in the absence of OCS development,
and the direct impacts of OCS development.
MAP·Model Assumptions
Four types of assumptions are required as the premises upon which a
forecast of economic activity using the MAP statewide model is
·-based. First,. sever a 1 assumptions about . the performance of the
national economy are required~ Secondly, an assumption is required
as to the number of tourists who will visit Alaska. Third,
assumptions are required about employment in specific sectors and
development projects. Finally, assumptions· are required about state
revenues and expenditure policies, which are major factors in the
deve 1 opment of the A 1 ask an economy. This section describes these
assumptions.
Inasmuch as Alaska is an open economy, developments in the state
hinge at least in part on the performance of the nationa 1 economy.
In particular, three assumptions about the U.S. economy are
required. First, a forecast of weekly earnings in the United States
75
-------------------------------·---------~--.. _.. ___ ...: ·; _,..: ... --=-~----'·-~-:...,___._.......:__~..,__,._..._...:..;.;_._..;;::~:...:..;::, .. ...,.;_... _________ :·: .. :::..~.:..~:i~ . .:::.;..""-._::~,::,~.;_;~;~~-=:;,;_._!...~:.:i_:~d~HI::o:-~~:;.~;~.~--i.~,~~~~~
is needed to estimate Alaskan wage rates. Second, insofar as most
goods consumed in Alaska are imported from the Lower 48, the U.S.
price level is an important determinant of Alaskan prices, so that
estimates of such prices require some forecast of the U.S. consumer
price index~ Finally, insof·ar ·as the income differential between
Alaska ·and the Lower 48 is a major determinant of migration between
A 1 ask a and the Lower 48, a forecast is required of rea 1 per capita
disposable income in the United States.
In the base case, it is estimated that the growth in U.S. consumer
prices slows to a long run rate of 7.5 percent by 1985, that the
growth in average weekly earnings rises to a long run rate of
8.0 percent by ·1985, and that real per capita personal income growth
rises slightly to 2 percent annually by the mid-80s.
Assumptions concerning exogenous employment are of two types--those
concerned with employment generated by specific projects affecting
,.,..,,.,...,, ;nrlooc-+,...;o., .,;mool+=ano/"\oiC,l\1 :~nrl +hneo rnnroY"nori w;th tho
.;;JI!i;;;\',..1 U. I 111\oiY~ "'I I '-.,;r ~lillY I W"""ll'-""""""" IJ' -··-VII_...,._ --··--· ••--'' t VII ..,.,,_
development of particular industries in the Alaskan economy.
With regard to specific industries, a modest level of growth .is
assumed in the base case. State subsidization results in expansion
of agriculture in the state over the forecast period; traditional
commercial fisheries and their associated processing employment
maintain their current levels while a new bottomfishing industry
76
[
c
J
\
[
f'
\
r L
r
L
r
('
I
I
'---'
C'
[
[
t
L
c
r . '
L
I f-c • '~--:i
L
'
1
' _,
~-~;
..)
·--;;
--~
·---~·---~--· ----·-----·-----------· . ___ .-a.-__ :_·-·-. -~-----· -----·---::. _____ :-~-··-------~:-._ .• ..;;:._...:.~._.:._·.-•·. . _._._:.:.:....."::".:.<.~.;:...:~=-:-.:...~ • .; __,.
emerges in the state~ Federal military employment is assumed to
stay constant at its current 1 eve 1 throughout the forecast period,
while civilian federal employment grows slowly at its historical
rate~
With regard to specific projects, several major sources of
employment are included in the base case. In addition to the
employment associated with existing major resource developments in
Upper Cook· Inlet, Prudhoe Bay field, and the TAPS pipeline, new
discoveries of ~75 billion barrels of oil and L625 trillion cubic
feet of gas are assumed for acreage leased in the 1979 joint
state-federal lease sale in the Beaufort Sea, while employment from
unsuccessful exploration in areas leased in·past federal lease sales
55, CI, and 60 is assumed to wind down quickly as leases are
abandoned. Furthermore, severa 1 new deve 1 opments are inc 1 uded in
the base case, the most significant being construction of the Alaska
Natural Gas Transportation System, assumed to begin operations in
1989. Other developments include construction of small
hydroelectric projects at Tyee Lake and Terror Lake, development of
a molybdenum mine in Southeastern Alaska by U.S~ Borax, deve.lopment
of ·the Red Dog Mine in Northwestern Alaska, and. construction of a
major coal mining facility in the Beluga/Chuitna area of Cook
Inlet. Finally, it is assumed that 1.85 billion barrels of oil and
3o 73 trill ion cubic feet of gas are discovered and developed as a
consequence of ongoing exploration of the National Petroleum Reserve
in Alaska (NPRA) .-
77
~-2........_: _ _._ ... _ . -------~_:_.~. ··---'-·-=· ~..:....:.._. __ ".:_ -~ _,;-___;·_ .-~-~c -~,~..,:_,·: .. :·_· -~ .--~·--'-:~ ..:...: .::~;:;_:;;,;,_,t,-:,;,}"':.;.-;;;:.:,.-.:,._:::;;:.0~-.i.::Ji,\_.;,~i'{"'>".:
The final set of assumptions required for developing a base case
forecast involves describing ·the course of future state government
fiscal policy. With regard to reve~ues, the _first quarter 1982
petroleum production revenue forecast, prepared by the Alaska
Department of Revenue, was uti 1 ized~ These revenues, however, are
in~dequate to finance expenditure growth at rates comparable to
those of recent experience without provoking a state government
fi sea 1 crisis by the 1 ate '90s. On the other hand, major cuts in
state spending, in particular, operating expenditures, are not
especially plausible to expect in the face of accumulating petroleum
revenues. Consequently, in the base case a two-phase expenditure
policy is assumed over the forecast period. As long as the real per
capita accumulated balances are growing, nominal expenditures grow
at eight percen~ annually, approximately the growth rate required to
maintain current per capita service levels. Once such balances
begin to decline, however, capital expenditures are cut at a rate of
ten percent annually, and th~ personal income tax is reintroduced
with its historicai structure. The combination of tax increases and
capital budget cuts limits the decline in state government
employment to a very small rate~
Table 25 summarizes these assumptions. For a more detailed
description of the assumptions, see Appendix I.
78
[
c
['
r
r '··.
r
! L
r
r·
I
f
1.-~
[j
L
c
{--"
,,_~
L
c
[
l
[ .. ·
L.;
L
;
··'
I
-~
-.,
-:)
~~
-'
.-,
~':l
··'
....;
-'
... -· ---'------'-:...._ .. ~... ---~........,_~·· -·-· ----· ---<·. ·_:: · ..... :.·.:...:._· ·-·-~~~-...... ~:_: :.~~;;.i,~:..:,_.::.~~-----..:~:.... ... _ . ..,_.;,; . .:.:~.:...::-:~~--~~;;,. ·'-"-~ :::....:.~~,::": _L.,.: .. ~ .. -_;.___ ..
TABLE 25~ ASSUivlPTIONS USED FOR lvlAP MODEL RUNS
Assumptions
National Variables Assumptions
U~S. Inflation Rate
Average Weekly Earnings
Real Per Capita Income
Tourism-Assumptions
Fiscal-Policy· Assumptions
Basic·Employment·Assumptions
Trans-Alaska Pipeline
Alaska Natural Gas
Transportation System
Prudhoe Bay Petroleum
Production
Description*
Consumer prices rise at 7.5 percen~
annually after 1985.
Growth -in average weekly earnings
rises to 8 percent annually by 1985.
Growth in real per capita income rises
to 2 percent annually by 1985.
Number of tourists visiting Alaska
rises at 4 percent annual rate from
505,400 in 1979 to over 1.1 million by
2000.
State revenue projections are based
upon Department of Revenue projections
publishe~ in March 1982. Operating
expenditures are assumed to grow at a
nominal rate of 8 percent, approxi-
mately the rate required to rna i nt a in
real per capita expenditures. Capital
expenditures also grow at a nominal
rate of 8 percent until the per capita
permanent fund balance begins to fall,
after which they decline at an annual
rate of 10 percent.
79
Construction of 4 additional
stations provides 90 jobs
1982; operating employment
constant at 1,500.
pumping
through
remains
Construction employment peaks at
10,589 in 1988. Long-term transpor-
tation and petroleum sector employment
average 319.
Construction employment on Prudhoe
water flooding project peaks at over
1,000 in 1983. Permanent operating
employment rises to 1,667 in 1983.
.__:._~-.:..·---·---~ .. ·-..:..:.::...:~---~'~--"'-.2.. ___ :... ~.:. ."..:;;::~ ~:-·-..;: ... ::·.:...:.:i------_-__ ·,:-.;..~:r.~.;.b--:;.;~~--:_.,~,.~..:.,~;;.~.;;.:.:.£. . .2·: :....:.·-~~:~'':"· -.~::..f,:-::~~~:-~~~k.~:::.-.:.:
TABLE 25. ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR MAP MODEL RUNS
(Continued)
Assumptions
Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum
Production
National Petroleum Reserve
in Alaska
OCS Development
Beluga-Chuitna Coal Production
Hydroelectric Projects
U~S. Borax
Red Dog Mine
Other Mining Activity
Agriculture
Logging and Sawmill Employment
Commercial Fishing:
Non-Bottomfish
Description
Employment remains at 1979 level of
778.
Development and production from 5 oil
fields and construction of 525 miles
of pipeline provide between 500 and
1,000 jobs after 1985.
Exploration employment only for sales
CI, 55, 57, 60, 70. Development of
Sale 71 1 ease (Beaufort Sea) area
results in maximum employment of 1,756
in 1994. Development of Sale BF lease
area results in maximum employment of
1,082 in 1989.
Eventual export of 4.4 million tons
per year pro vi des tot a 1 emp 1 oyment of
'524.
Total construction employment on the
Tyee Lake and Terror Lake
hydroelectric projects reaches a
maximum of 520 in 1984.
80
The U.S. Borax Mine near Ketchikan is
brought into production with operating
employment of 790 by 1988.
The Red Dog Mine in the Western Brooks
Range reaches full production with
operating employment of 448 by 1988.
Employment increases from a 1979 level
of 3,140 at 1 percent annually.
Moderate state support results in
expansion of agriculture to employment
of 508 in 2000.
Employment increases from 2,204 in
1980 to 4,103 in 2000.
Employment levels in fishing
processing remain constant
levels of 6,323 and
respectively.
and fish
at 1979
_6,874,
[
c
r·
r
L
I
L
r \. __
r' I
I ~
[
L
e
t
r·
L
[
r '--•
[
r -
l ,__
L.c;
L
-,
-·1
=oi
.. _..:.. _____ . __ -:-,_;_,_ •. _ __:~,.::_~-:~~--~-:·;Z.:.,.o·_;,_.;: __ .,__~~;_.::::,.···..-.:.:~,.":_;~~__::-.:.:~_~,._.~~=~~,::~s_j~~:~:':;:~.·.;·o~;.,;i;id-:o.~:-~~·"£."0.;-=i-.;;,i~"i:.:.:..i-::'£:.·i:'.I0::~~~~~Jii~;..;;£,;,~~:.d~:.:_:~:-i~;~:-·:·;:~·-j,-."t:.d6~~:2~~,;._~t!;.
TABLE 25. ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR !~AP lv!ODEL RUNS
(Continued)
Assumptions
Bottomfish Harvesting and
harvesting Processing
Federal Civilian Employment
Federal Mi1itary
Description
By 2000, resident bottomfish
increases to 924 in the A 1 eut i ans and
213 in Kodiak. Total onshore bottom-
fish processing employment increases
to 3,149 in the Aleutians and 724 in
Kodi ako
Rises at 0.5 percent annual rate from
17,915 in 1979 to 19,893 in 2000.
Employment remains constant at 23,333.
*NOTE: Employment assumptions are in annual fu11-time equivalent jobs~
81
-·-........:.. -~-· _._. -· ·.:=_:.~_,.,_,_,,~..:..-~/'~"~.;;. .,-. ···. _: ·>-·' ... , •• _ ~-~~ ,_ : ___ ;::_~:~,;-~ -;;;·4.-:..i2.; . .-.·.: :~·;;-~· ~-w;-~:::~·y:-:::_:;~.:g:t;;:ts~-.;~~·'-;:~s:::~t~.U;..~r~~~'{#:<~X&,;,.:~.:~ -~~$-~1;,\--tfr~t:n-:O?e.ii•~'~:i.!.~~": -. __ .:.; ... ·,~:·;·;~0j-2!h:-~~;.~~;.;~:.:~·;·~i~~tf-4~
SCIMP·Model Assumptions
Utilization of the SCIMP model requires a variety of assumptions.
Among these are initial_ period p_opulation . figures, projected
exogenous employment, employment multipliers, unemployment rates,
and labor force participation rates. These assumptions are
discussed in this section~
The assumption \vas made throughout that there is no interaction
between the military and civilian populations on Adak and Shemya and
the rest of the economy of the Aleutian Islands. These populations
were assumed to remain constant over the entire period~ They were
subtracted from total population of the region before running the
,.
SCIMP model, and added back into the final population figures~ in
addition, OCS offshore employment was assumed to have no interaction
with the rest of the local economy.
POPULATION
1980 population data used by the SCIMP model are shown ·-T~1.1~ 'JC Ill I ClU I C '-U o
The population figures are based on 1980 census data, but a number
of assumptions were made in order to obtain breakdowns by age, sex,
and race. "Resident.. population was defined to exclude military
personnel and dependents. An estimate of this figure was obtained
from the combined populations. of Attu, Shemya, and Adak~ In
addition, an attempt was made· to exclude from resident population
those persons ·counted by the census who were engaged in fish
82
[
[~
[
r
1~~
~
r·
L
r \_
r
! 'L..
[
[.
'
[
t
L
[
[
L
r u
[
-1
··I
..)
c-"
:. ---~--·---' ~ ·.·• _·,;,; . .--. _ _:.~:_:._. ·• •· -~ ..• · . ........,.-~..:..:......:._ .. -,-.:--•. ..;..:...._ • ....____:: _ _,._,_ :_c .•. '·-::·.-·..;:.-~,.~-••·-•--
TABLE 26. SCIMP MODEL RESIDENT POPULATION
ASSUMPTIONS FOR 1980
Non-Native Native
Age Class Male Female Male Female
0 -14 153 147 325 311
15 -19 78 62 165 131
20 -24 88 63 188 133
25 -29 82 52 175 112
30 -44 142 71 304 152
45 -64 90 47 192 101
64 + 7 7 54 52
Subtotal 640 449 1,403 992
Subtotal 1,089 2,395
Total . 3,484
SOURCE: _1980 census; covered area is 1970 census division. Popu-
lations of Adak, Shemya, and Attu not included. Also not
included are people living in group quarters. 1980 figures
adjusted upwards by 15.78 percent to include the population
of Chignik, Chignik lagoon, Chignik Lake, and Perryville,
which were part of 1970 census area, but not of 1980 census
area. See text for other notes.
83
..::-.-~;.._..._..:._ ___ ..;_.~..;.---· -·~·-' ·;:......:._....;;_._:_·,~:--•. • ·,_;_._.~",_.-.....f'.r.:;;..· .. ·
processing and are temporarily living in fish processing plant camps
or onboard processor ships. An estimate of this figure was obtained
by subtracting the 861 people living in group quarters on April 1,
1980. Finally, the population was increased by 475 to include the
populations of Chignik, Chignik Lagoon, Chignik Lake, and
Perryville, which were part of the 1970 census area, but not of the
1980 census area. The breakdowns by age, sex, and race assume that,
for each sex, the share of natives by age class was the same as for
the total population.
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
SCIMP model employment assumptions were developed based on Tables 27
and 28~ Exogenous employment was as~umed. The endogenous
components of services and government employment were calculated
using multipliers.
Exogenous employment in the Aleutians may be divided into two
categories: resident exogenous emp 1 oyment and nonresident exogenous
employment. Nonresident employees work in the Aleutians but have
their homes elsewhere; examples are fi$hermen who fish in the
Aleutian Islands but have their homes in Kodiak or Seattle; cannery
and processing boat workers who are flown up for the season and live
in company quarters; and oil industry employees living in company
camps, enclaves, or hotels who are regularly flown home on leave.
SCIMP model assumptions about base case resident and exogenous
employment are shown in Table 29.
84
······ r
r
f·
f'
/'
\
r:
r
f'
\__
r·~
I
I L_,
['
L
c
F l~
L
[
[
L
!' . -
Li
L
'
~-.
__ ...)
..•
_,
'
'. ·-~··' .,:~--·_ . ,·--·~~---~~--·:. :......_..:: ·-.:,;~·---··-·· .. · .. :..: ~·. :~.:;..::.-:·._:~--··--=---___ .. -·--------~ --·-.. ...:..., , .... ,_ ...
TABLE 27. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS 1980 EMPLOYMENT*
A.ssumed Assumed ·Resident Employment Nonresident
Resident Exogenous Employment
Category Total ·Share· ··Share · Exogenous Endo9enous (Exogenous)
Basic
Fish HarvestingC 251 1.0 1.0 251
Fish Processing 1 '739 • 1 1.0 174 -1,565
Otherd 11 1.0 1.0 11
Secondary
Construction 109 ~ 1 a -11 98
Transportation, Com-
munication, Uti1ities 81 1.0 0 -81
Wholesale & Retail Trade 87 1.0 ~2 17 JO
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate 105 1.0 0 -105
Services 168 1.0 0 -168
Government
Federal Government 196-b i.O LO 196
State & Local Gov't 395 1.0 1.0' -395
Total 3;, 142 --649 880 1:,663
Basic 2,001 - -
436 -1,565
Secondary 550 --17 435 98
Government 591 --196 395
*Primary source is Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical Quarterly, 1979 IV -
1980 I I I.
aAll resident employment was assumed to be endogenous. All nonresident
employment was assumed to be exogenous.
bBase.d on figure for 1978 in Alaska Divisi_on of Economic Enterprises Numbers
Basic Economic· Stati·stic-s of Alaska Census Divisions (November 1979), p. 12, which
is the latest figure available for federal government nonmilitary-related
employment.
csased on estimates in Table 17. Does not include nonresident fishermen.
dsased on assumed employment of 11 in agriculture.
85
---~--·-------=-·--·-·: .... >:::.: __ :·,-_ ~ ..._:..:.___ _...:....:..:;_;.__...-___.:~~:-~ .~::.;.~_~! .. :o.:,__ '-~-',_:.:;;.:; ···:.: · -4-· "'-.--.., .:~~.'· ,--,4-.:".Par.-~-c ;~-::_-.": --u-~~--i~:..~.:: ~:~ .. _:::~~:;2._;~_:: _-_:_··!~ .~)-_:··_ ·· :.:~;~;...>. ;·::...<-:-:.... --:~-. -..;
TABLE 28. ALEUTIAN ISLANDS 1980 EMPLOYMENT
ASSUMPTIONS USED IN DEVELOPING SCIMP
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
Exogenous:
Fishing industry
Fish harvesting
Fish processing
Nonfishing Basic
Exogenous Services
Exogenous Government
TOTAL
Endogenous:
Services
Government
SOURCE: Table 27.
86
Resident
426
1l
17
196
650
435
395
251
174
Nonresident
1565
1565
98
1 ,663
[
[,
c
r
r
c
{
[
r~
I r b,
,-,
L
L
L
c
L
[
6
L
L Li
L
.. : ...... _..:...:~..£_~· ·"":"_;-';!· ~: ~.:-.• -.;;'"·~i;.;s:~i-~"?J..:::;3_~j_~:-.;" ,:,..,..;· .. , ':!~-:...:;. :"'~-~~ifur~j'>~·=;t.··~.:;..?~.g$-';;;;tA¥-:;.....c-;..:.~~~:-~:--.. :'".·· .. ·:_~:·y-;: _,.;' -~j -··>-: \''-"~"'iifi~~i:;:>·..:~~ . ·;.'. }, . ;'"&:t:.:~~-0.:_ ~~-·-.:.· __ : __ .:~~_,.-..:_:;2:.::;~~.::..?~~~.~-'?.:"~-:-.;;: ;':.~ -~-~:--: ... ~>::·:o.:...·•-::--. .:i;.-·~ ___ ,._. __ .::::.-... :_ ·"' :;;-:.,
'
'
'
~
·"
-::1
--'
~·
TABLE 29. SCIMP MODEL BASE CASE
RESIDENT EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
.... __ .. -..
.:.;·:
YEAii' EMF..:RY. EMF'F..:DN. I6'EHEMP IREPEMP ·. REME:SGS __ NEREMF.:,..:.....
1981 24. ·1; ·251. 174.· o. 11.·.
1982 30. . 1. 251. 174. o. 11.
_j_£8.3 4.5 ·-·., ""'iL ·· . 1 7~ o_. ____ l.l.#-
1984 66. _3 .. :. .. ,• 251 •.. -··:-'174.. 15. 11.
1985 87. : -4.-·: 251:.0.·.· .. :. :~:·:'174. 17. 11.
_1._2_8_6 .10_9 ·. : ·' 6. · 251." ····174:.. · ___1.5. lL_
1987 132. . . 9. 251. 174.! 9. 11.
~ . -1 .
1988 156. -12. 251. . '174. t • o. . 11.
1 089 1--.-·-. .18 . ""'".1 .lJ. A. I. . 0 11
, . ------·-/.!)_. _____ ....... ····--.... ..J ··-----· .~ ... l-·-·-·-·· .. -....
1"990 183. 25. -251. . 174.-. o. 11 +
1991 196. 35... 251·: 174.. o. 11.
1992 213 • 50 • 251. 174 .. 1 Q.!-------±J . .! __
1993 234.... . . 71·... . 251.. . 174. J o. 11.
1994, . 260. · · ··: · ior/. · ':2s1~ · _,. ~ 174>:) · o. 11.
1995. .. 294.. 142~ :·,:. 251.. 174+ 1 o.. 11.
1996 336. 201. 251. 174.-i o. 11.
1997 390. 283. 251. . 174. i o. 11.
1998 459. 39a. 251. 174. I o.. 11 •.
1999 547. 56o.~· ; ·. 251.: ·174~ · o-:----···· · ··11·~·· --
..,ooo I::"QC" '787 ·. ·. ' .. ..,c-1 . . ·:··.:..174' '': 0 11 ..:.. ....J, ..J. . . +· .. ··· ·. .;..~ • ·.· .. .. ··.... .· .... • ' ...
----___ . --:-:....:.~-----· ··«..,_: _____ ; __ .:...:.:_~::,;,:.~--,~:----~~-·-·-· __ : __ "r' .:.....:...·_ --·· ·-.--·::.· -
EMPRV RESIDENT BOTTOMFISHERMEN
EMPRON BOTTOMFISH PROCESSING-RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT ..
TRFHEMP TRADITIONAL FISHING RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT ,~~.: :
TRFPEMP. TRADITIONAL PROCESSING RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
----·----
~E~9S6S ST. GEORGE SALE RESIDENT EMPLOYME~T
NFREMP OTHER BASIC SECTOR RESIDENr EMPLOYMENT
87
;: -~:...;;~.i..L.::·:.; -:L:...:.:.:,.~,_:.!,~_:;-.. ~~~·t{~-:·:. ::_., .. ,·-~-~-:··-.:.._~p{:.;;,,=~~_,;:.,.-:,:..·_,. ·-. ~--"':' .... ,. -_,;"t:.i:_~:.~:~,_.,/~~:-: ... ;~ 1-~~:,.,c_~:.-~:: ·o.__,_;_.___: . ..:__:;_:._:~::.:. • .:_.·.{-~:.-~,2-i_:;._;;_~;~~;.=-_;;'::.:..-2-£_,_~'-· . ...:,:-'~~ '<:-::~:.!!~;_:;_-~;;.;.:.;::..i:;:..:.:-...:~~...:,,:.~, .. ~.:::;-~~-~s,.;i:i..,}:~
Fishing accounts for the largest component of exogenous resident
emplo~ent by far. Traditional fish harvesting and processing
resident employment is assumed to remain constant at 1980 levels of
251 and 174. Obviously, this assumption does not take account of
major fluctuations that may ·occur in response to fluctuations in
tot a 1 c·atch and new harvesting and processing technology~ However,
since the effects of these changes on employment are very difficult
to predict, our best guess is simply to assume that employment will
remain constant while realizing that actual employment may be quite
different~
In the latter part of the projection period, bottomfishing-
employment becomes even more significant than traditional fishing
employment. The bottomfishing employment assumptions are also
highly uncertain. They reflect a number of assumptions with respect
to total American catch, allocation of catch among harvesting
methods, employment coefficients, and residency patterns of
omnltHtooc Thoco ~Ccllmn+innc ~ro r!icr .. ccor! in Ll.nnonr!iv I( '-''lt""I-J'-'-ocl• 111'-W'-_.._,...,._. ... t"" .... l-lloJ -·-_,..., ______ Ill ''t"J""''-11_1,, ......
Resident exogenous employment -assumptions also include a small
amount of employment in St. George Sale OCS oil exploration and
other mining and agriculture. In addition, exogenous services and
government employment was assumed to remain constant at 1980 levels
of 17 and 196, respectively (these figures are not shown in
Table 29).
88
r
r
L'
r
L
L
L
r
f'
I
1 ~~
r·-.
L
l
[~
_o
c
L
[
[~
L
L fo-=
"'----'
L
=·..::-Li..:~...: .... ~~...::-.. ~·..:.,;·i.S~.·;:;:f.:~:t{.:·~·iF~S·-~;-.-;~-,·:.~:;·!Di~;.~':;.~;.;_q;i;· ·; ., ·~ ·· ·:-:-:.-· j!.~":.> c._.i •... ·-... :c~ r:-:"'i::.~-~,.:· ~.~ ...... ,.:, ,,':...::,_:,:...._; ~-·. ·l"".:~ <:L::;:.~~~t;_::.:_.:t2::-__ ~::::..:_-.:. .. ".:~ .,-~...:.::..i::::...:. _ _:..:__:..._ __ .:.:.:.:.:.·:.,__._._:....:.:..:.:..:~ __ .:.::~-~ ::r..:::;.;,~, • .,:,,j~~:.S~_:;"
'
~-\
~·
cJ
=
o-.-oii'
The nonresident exogenous employment assumptions are shown in
Table 30. The procedures. used to develop the~e assumptions were the
same as for the resident e~ployment assumptions. Again, fishing and
fish processing employment dominate nonresident exogenous employment
assumptions.
The SCIMP model calculates endogenous services employment by
multiplying exogenous resident and nonresident employment by
multipliers which reflect an assumed ratio of endogenous to
exogenous employment~ The services employment multipliers were
calculated by assuming that the services employment multiplier for
nonresident exogenous employment would be equal to ~1, and that the
services employment multiplier for resident employment would remain
unchanged at the level implied by present employment. The formula
for calculating the resident employment multiplier is then:
( E~dog~nous \
\ :::,erv1ces }
\ Emp 1 oyment
= I l a , 1 • , • \ l MU It 1 p 11 er)
Using 1980 figures, we have
x (/ ~~~~~~~~s \) Employment
+ Gov't
Employment ·
+
435 = (Multiplier) (650 + 395) + • 1 (1663),
which implies a multiplier of .257.
89
(Non res i den-0 ., f 1 r.·-----··-~\ • I I C.Ji.U~t:IIUU::> )
~Employment
.... ./~·:,_.;,:~.;_.;_:~~::..:.:.::£.:.~:::..:..: __ ---~--'-:_ ----~-~~---4~..:...,_.;_;_~_'8.:.~~i~~i::: ....... :-~----··------=-------..:::..::.; ..... .:...::.:::~--....:----~--....:... ··-•-'-~----.....:--·-· '------'"'"--"'--~·~'---'---~ ..;_,.;_~·~:......:.. .. -
TABLE 30. SCifviP ~10DEL BASE CASE NONRESIDENT
EXOGENOUS El~PLOYMEiH ASSUt1PTIONS
YEAR TEFPEMP EMPNRON
1981 1565. 3.
1982 1565. 4.
1983 1565~ s.
1984 1565. 7.
1985 1~65. -10.
1986 1565~·. ·. 13 ..
1987 1565. 18.
1988 1565~ 24.
1989 1565~ 32.
1990 1565. 43.-
1991 1565. 57.
1992 1565. 77~
1993 1565~ 103.
1994 1565. 139.
199~ .. -_..:..15~5. ___ ·--_18.5~ -
-1-996 1565. 248.--
1997 1565. 331.
~8 1~6~. A-~
1999 .· ;_; c:l.S65~ < .. : ::' 590. · .
.2000 :•-~''· .. 156~ ~ ~;::;.~;;.':{~!.~787. '·.
EEMPSGS NFEEMP
o. 98.
o. 98.
85. 98.
131. 98.
154. . 98.
131. 98.
80. 98.
o. 98.
______ Q~ ~8_._
o. 98.
o. 98.
0. 98.
98. o.
o. 98.
o. ·--·-·"-~a. __ o.
o.
98. -
98.
----~~-------9~ o .. ·: 98 .. ,
o •. . ·~· 98 .. . -------··-:--:· .. ·
IEEF'Et!F' TF~D I I I ONAL£:.RDC£S.S.IN!LE.N.C.LAV.E-EME:LO YMENL
EMPNRON . :;-,~ BOTTOMFISH PROCESSING ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
HMPJGS --.--..:c:-u..T_...__.t;lGEO.E:.G.E.._SA! E EN.CLAV.F FMPI O.Y.MEN..L
NFEEMP OTHER ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT.··:'
90
[
r
r,
t
r
r
r
r L.
r
r··
I
L
[
[
[·.~
·'
e
L
[
c
L
t:
L
[
_j
-,
-,
.. ,
--,
i
-,
i
-:.-:7
-~
__;
·-"
. "
·'---~-~~·~~~=~:: .. ~_·_._·-~.-·-·-~-----:~·--·--~~_._:_.:.:__··
The SCIMP model calculates government employment by multiplying past
period resident and nonr~sident population by government emplo~ment
multipliers. The procedure for calculating the government
employment multipliers is similar to that used to calculate the
services employment multiplier. The nonresident population
government employment multiplier was assumed to be one-tenth that of
the resident population government employment multiplier~ Thus, we
have
~Endogenous Gov•t)
" Employment = (Multiplier)
~ Previous Year '\
x "Resident Population~ +
' • 1
Using 1980 figures, we have
(Multiplier) c Previous Year Non-'\
. resident Population~
(395) = (Multiplier) (3484) + .1 (Multiplier) (1663),
which implies a multiplier of .108.
91
.~·.:::~:.;.~~~::..~~.~~.-;;.< ,· .. : : .. ...:..:.'......:..~:.-···-:::.;. ... ::-.·•'··}<~ . ...:·2.: :~:.'....--~· -·.--.~·: ...... ·. .. '" -·~: . -...~--~0.:--'..:,.·::•· .... ,-.-.£:-:.~~S.:.-· ·~'··; .·.~:-¥; •:·· -.:'·.c.:. · . ....:.:i:.....;:::.........~:,.:.:...·.::..:::~i:L::~ .::-..::~:.:~:,_-!_·;.,;~;_, .r.-~;..;_;.<.~:";.i~~:;-;::~
UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES
An unemployment rate of 6.6 percent was assumed, based on the
average for the period 1970-1978, as discussed in Chapter II. Labor
force participation rates were assumed for Non-Natfves~ Native
labor force participation rates were then calculated based on total
employment, total population, and the Non-Native labor force
participation rates~ These rates are shown in Table 31~ The
procedure used to calculate these rates is described in greater
detail in Appendix L.
OCS Impact· Assumptions
OCS impacts ·were examined for four different 11 cases.11 These cases·
differ with respect to the oii and gas res.ources which are assumed
to be discovered and developed as well as the location of
facilities~ The cases are referred to as the .6 Bbbl case, the
1.2 Bbbl remote case, the 1.2 Bbbl road-connected case, and the
2.4 Bbbl case. All cases involve the discovery of economically
recoverable quantities of oil. The 1.2 Bbbl and 2.4 Bbbl cases also
assume the discovery of economically recoverable quantities of gas.
The development scenarios for· these resources were provided by the
Minerals Management Service Alaska OCS Office. In the .6 Bbbl case,
the oil is loaded directly onto tankers at the offshore platforms
and transferred to larger tankers at a remote transshipment point in
the Aleutian Islands. In the 1.2 Bbbl cases, the oil and gas are
first taken by pipeline to oil and LNG terminals on St. Matthew, and
92
[
[
r
c
[
[
[ -
r
r·
I
I ~
r·
L
L
L
[
L
[
t
L
l .
·~
l;
"""
- j
:c.3
l
Nativeb
.Ma-le·
0
~25: .. 169
20 -· 24 l _g .675
25-29 - r .9 .. 675
30 -44 'l .8 .675
45 -64 1 .8-~675
65 +
...
.5 .1 ~338
aAssumed.
bcalculated by multiplying Non-Native rates by .675, as
discussed in Appendix L.
93
Female
0
.169
.608
.Goa·
.• 540
.540
.068
~·· --~:_~---: .:.:-: • ." .:· ~· ·.>: ;·,·}:·:-~-=-.::~~--~·.::-::~~-, .:· · .. .::::...~'· • ·-·· ~. ·< · · ' · · ~::.::i":0.~~:> .·· ~-·'' • ; .ci,:.:;;: .W.:c_;.::.;-:"~"'-:: ... · .. · ··~c ··,,·-·. : '· ·:~:_.:.:;.:$:-'."":.:£; ~,· •. : :, ";,'; ·•· <·• ..• : •. ~--<' ·.··.;;,,-~ .. -.·:..'.=..:-;~!· · · .. :.:.:.· ·-..I~-~---~_;~, ,_·.:..:.:...:... .•. ,~.'!2:.r.!{~ -~,1'i~~!-.::·.~·.;:;:_l.:."_,,._ ~":;;:?-:'~-:S·~...-;.:.:':.:.:.._·:..._.~~~~~,:..,.{;
subsequently shipped to the transshipment terminal in the Aleutian
Islands~ In one of these .cases, the transshipment terminal is
road-connected to an Aleutian Island community~ In the 2.4 Bbbl
case, the oil and LNG terminals are located on St. Paul instead of
St. Matthew.
oc·s impacts enter the MAP and SCIMP mode 1 s primarily through the
assumption of increases in direct resident and nonresident
employment associated with the OCS project. The emp 1 oyment
assumptions used were based on figures provided by the Alaska OCS
office~ These assumptions are discussed in detail in Appendix J.
For the MAP model in the 1~2 Bbbl cases, maximum resident employment·
of 6,927 occurs in 1993 during the construction phase, with long-run
operating employment of 3,022. Employment assu~ptions are roughly
50 percent higher in the 2. 4 Bbb 1 ·case and 50 percent 1 ower in the
~6 Bbbl case. For the SCIMP model, local resident employment is
considerably less. Maximum direct local OCS employment is less than
300 in all cases~ This much lower figure is due to the fact that
most of the OCS employment is either offshore or else outside of the
Aleutians, and that many workers located in the Aleutians are not
residents.
In the MAP model, some additional impacts are generated by oil and
gas property tax revenues collected by the state. The development
of these revenue assumptions is discussed in Appendix M. In the
1.2 Bbbl case, the .maximum property tax revenues {in nominal
dollars) are $209 million in 2004.
94
[
[
[
c·
['
r L.
L
L
r,
I
' '---'
r·
l
L
L
E
[, .
[
[
t
f I ,
b
L
-·-· ...... : ·> i:._~:-~::-: :·~·-_:·.~~-. "'~ '· ··· ···· J;.; . • :-_.;: ·:.:.: '.<~:~-!.':--:" ·<-:-.~~_.;. .. _ : \.,_:i .. ·---T -.. :>~ ;-:.""'·-~'~--;;· .:.~#~-i. ~;.£.~.::.::_,~::_"1.::.:1-~->:'~-~~~:..-. ·. . :r~-1-·..:.::...;-:-._,;;.,.-::...:;~-:.': . · ~-.-.:, .:-.: .:._~__;_;_~ _._,_,_,_.-~_:_~-.-~L:;,;~.i;_,:,...,,.,~.:";;;
_.)
:=,
~
__ _;
=c
CHAPTER V.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE BASE CASE AND IMPACT PROJECTIONS
This chapter discusses. the MAP model statewide projections. The
first section of the chapter discusses the projections in the
absence of the Navarin Basin OCS sale (the base case projections).
The second section of the chapter discusses projections when the
Navarin Basin OCS sale is included (the impact projections)~
Tables of the MAP model projection results are provided in
Appendixes A-D. Appendix A provides tables of the base case
projections~ Appendix B provides tables showing base case
projections, impact case projections, absolute impacts, and
percentage impacts, by variable, for each of the four OCS cases.
The tables in Appendix C compare the absolute impact projections for
all four cases for each variable, and the tables in Appendix 0
compare the percentage imn;:~rt nl"ni~=>rtinnc::: fnl" "'""f"' ___ l""'r--v----·-··-·-· all four cases for
each variable.· A table of contents is provided at the beginning of
each appendix.
MAP·Mode1·Base·Case Projections
In the base case, statewide population expands to over 590 thousand
by the year 2010, as shown in Table A-2o Population growth is
spurred by both high rates· of natural increase and in-migration
95
-~"'--"'--'-'""'-='-·~-. :.:._:.: ... -:1. --~·~·-... : --~~,:-··--: ~: -::.-... :.,;:c:.·,~. · · ~,·,; ·-__ · <· ~-, -i':~ --:·: · .,·~--~-:L : .. _.,~~ _-_...:..:...._;_ __ ., -~-~;y_ -;_. ,_ -;.-az.-.,i·.:·-·;; · ·: --.... --~-.. :.-· ·. ~-----~.=.:..:_ ...;._ "'~----· :::~~-;..:...;..;;;;:,;,.~;.;.~=.~~-~--'"".:,;.:..::-...:..::,;.,:
during the 11 boom 11 years of the mid-80s. As state government trims
its growth with the depletion of resource revenues, and the major
resource developments -pass their peak employment years, outmigration
begins to dominate from the late 80s to the end of the period. This
outmigration, combined with the aging of the remaining population,
reduces· population growth rates throughout the period after 1990~
Employment projections are shown in Table A-3~ Employment in the
state expands by about 40 percent over the 30-year forecast period,
with most of the growth occurring during the 80s. Primarily due to
construction of the gas pipeline~ employment peaks in 1988, followed
by a sharp decline of nearly 10,000 in 1990 and a more gradual·
decline throughout the 90s~ Subsequently, employment slowly
recovers to nearly the 1988 level by the end of the forecast period •.
As shown ·in Tab 1 e A-4, persona 1 income in the base case peaks at
over 10 billion dollars in 1988, followed by a sharp decline through
the early 90s, and a gradual recovery from the mid-90s to the end of
the period. However, it does not recover to its 1988 level until
2010, and in per capita terms, income never again reaches its more
than $20,000 peak realized in 1988.
As shown in Tab 1 e A-6, state government revenues in the base case
peak in 1989 at over five billion dollars annually, but decline
steadily thereafter. At the peak, petroleum revenues and interest
96
[
c
[
[
[
r
r
[
r
I
I
~--:
[
[
[
c
[
[
r:
'---'
L
r: t._j
[•
~
-"
... --'-~ ~.c.c---------.... -·------__ _: _______ :_···
e:-arniirngs ,an :a:r:r:urrwTI:ated :ho.ilian:c:es make .up nearly &3 percent of tota 1
revenues, b.u,t f·an by til:~ :end of the period to 1 ess than 47 percent
of the tota] as res:o.u:rc:.es are progress-ively exhausted and the ·income
tax is re·tnstituted-s·tate expend.itures, however, do not peak unt i 1
the mid-90s tn both tota.l · and per capita terms, as seen in
Table A·-7. As a consequence, real accumulated balances in the
general and permanent funds are being drawn down slowly from the
late 90s until the end of the period, with about 11 billion dollars,
or $18,600 per person, remaining accumu 1 a ted by the end of the
period (Table A-8)~
The mode 1' s projections of state government expenditures and the
combined funds balance are direct resu1ts .of the assumptions which
were used about state expenditure policies. ~f a more conservative
spending policy had been assumed along with an earlier reinstitution
of the income tax, the projected combined funds balance at the end·
of the period would have been larger.· Conversely, if a less
conservative ____ ..J.:. __
::OIJI:::IIU I IIY --,.:. --· IJU I II..:J
1...-..1 ll<lU L..------.. ~-...1 UCCII 0.;);) UIIICU' -1-1...~
1.111:
___ ; ....... _ ........... ,..~
!"'IV.}C\.. .. C'-1
combined funds balance at the end of the period would have been
smaller.
MAP·Model Impact-Projections
This section discusses the impacts of the proposed Sale 83 for the
four different cases. Tables showing the impacts are provided in
Appendixes B-0. We will center our discussion around the 1.2 Bbbl
97
cases {the impacts of which are identical at the statewide level).
For the .6 and 2.4 cases, impacts are slightly smaller and larger,
respectively.
POPULATION IMPACTS
Population impacts are shown in Tables C-1 and D-1. Population
increases by a maximum of 16,800, or just under 3 percent, in 1993.
The popu 1 at ion increase occurs as a resu 1 t of migration into the
state of workers seeking to fill new jobs in the OCS industry and
new jobs indirectly generated by OCS industry. The long-run
absolute population impacts remain nearly constant at slightly below
the maximum levels.
EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS
Total employment impacts are shown in Tables C-5 and D-5. Total
employment increases by a maximum of 6.4 percent, or 16,600 jobs, in
1993. The long-run employment impacts decline to approximately half
+h.;~ ,~,,~,
..... ,;, 1~¥~··
INCOME IMPACTS
Sale 83 development increases total personal income by a maximum of
8 percent, or $706 million, in 1993 (Tables C-6 and 0-6). Due to
the accompanying increase in population, the percentage increase in
per capita income is only about half as great, at 4.7 percent, or
$787 per capita (Tables C-7 and D-7).
98
[
c.
[
[
L
r:
L
[
f'
I
' L"
[
[
[
c
{-,
--
_j
[
r:
'--·
L
L
r
---~
j
--'
--"
-__ ,_ ..... · _ ___, _ _:._~_,__, __ .~-----'--· ~~--. ....:~_:_. __ -. ____ _
--'-··'---···-~---·
REVENUE IMPACTS
Tables C-11 and D-11 show impacts upon total real state government
revenues. The impact o~ OCS development u~on total revenues
increases steadily over the period to over 6 percent. In abso 1 ute
terms, the impact upon revenues increases rapidly from ~14 mi 11 ion
in 1991 to $132 million in 1994, and then rises gradually to
$190 million by the end of the period.
There are a number of causes for this increase in revenues. These
include larger income tax and federal transfer revenues due to a
1 arger population, direct o i 1 and gas property taxes, and increased
interest income on the larger fund balances which accumulate as a
result of increased income. Of these, higher interest earnings
account for over 60 percent of the increase in revenues by the end
of the period.
EXPENDITURE IMPACTS
The projected impacts upon expenditures are very low because nominal
expenditures were assumed to be held constant between the base case
and the impact cases. Real state government expenditures are
projected to increase by a maximum of $34 mi 11 ion, or just under
1 percent, in 1993 (Tables C-12 and D-12). Real expenditures
increase slightly as a result of higher subsidies, which are
population linked and endogenous to the model, and a slightly lower
price level due to the expansion in the economy.
99
-----~...c.:,~:-·:.~ .. --·--·-~-__ :·-~-".--____ ; _____ ..;__ __ -·,::__::~ ... ·.. :~_, ____ __: __ .. _-·_· _· -----~-'-.:.--~-----...._:._ ________ ..
JroMB:l tiED fF JJNIJS ffiA.!lAtffiE
-;ltre ;tffiiiii.Cl: .up:crn -cfue -::camlltrred :p;er.ma:rrent :and Eener-a 1 funds balance
·trrcr:.eas:ecs :s::'-l£arlflY :to ::alma.s:t ~$11..:7 J:XfUton, _or T5 p:e·rc:ent; in 2010
(Tab1ecs :c..:r4 :and =D-TLP).. ·acs ~de.-v:elapment would have no effect upon
the p:ermanent f~nd, .hu.t under the p:o:ltcy assumptions used, the
b-alance· tn the gener-al fund would rise since the increase in
r-evenu.es is not matched by the increase in expenditures.. The per
capita combined funds balance would also rise, by $2,200 (Tables
C-15 and D-15). However, the percentage impact would be smaller
(12 percent) due to the accompanying increase in population. Again,
we emphasize that these effects upon the combined funds result
solely from our assumptions about state government expenditure
policies, which did not allow for an iricrease in expenditures
commensurate with the increase in revenues.
Conclusions
The MAP statewide model projections suggest that OCS development in
the Navarin Basin ~1ould lead to a moderate increase in the state
population of just under 3 percent in the maximum year. The model
projections also suggest that state revenues would rise by about
7 percent. This appears at first to be a positive impact, with
revenues expanding faster than popu 1 ati on. However, this effect is
largely illusory since most of the increase in revenues results from
higher interest earnings on the general fund. If expenditures were
to increase to match the increase in population, the fund balance
would be lower, resulting in a much smaller impact upon revenues.
100
[
r~
r:
[
r·
L
r
L
[
.--1
I "=-
[
[
[
c
[
[
r •-·
L
[
L--'
L
__ ;;
-'
:-""!
-'
'
~;;
----~'-, _,_, _-:.:.~--~ ;___ ... ,_ .. ; •• ; .. -_ ~;:~)_,::::...-:;!....:~.,.._..:-__ __::. __ ,,','', ,"',"' ''-''' --~--=---' .,_<_:__:,_.._...:_.:.~......_ __ ,._.._.._ ___ _,_.;
VI. SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR
T~E ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
This chapter discusses the SCIMP model projections for the Aleutian
Islarids·. The first part of the chapter discusses the base case
projections, while the second part of the chapter discusses the
impact projections. Tables of the SCIMP model projections are
presented in Appendixes E through H.
SCIMP,Model,Base,Case,Projections
The base case projections for the Aleutian Islands show a pattern of
smoothly accelerating population and employment growth. This growth
is the direct result of the assumptions made about the growth
pattern in the bottomfish industry.
Table E-1 shows population projections for the Aleutian Islands.
There are a variety of components· of population, including permanent
residents, onshore enclave workers, nonresident fishermen, and
military. Resident population is projected to rise steadily from
3,654 in 1980 to 8,348 in 2000.
The enclave, nonresident fishermen, and mi 1 itary populations were
all assumed. Military population remains constant. The enclave
population rises from 1,666 to 2,450, and the nonresident fishermen
population rises from 717 to 4,473.
101
-~ -~ ··--.·. "'"~:..,~~---~ . ..:-.~--~:.: --· -:_.._ ~ ·.•':": .: .. ~ ..... ~.. ······ ___ ___...:__........,___ _____ _
Table E-2 presents projections for resident employment. All basic
sector employment was assumed, as discussed in Chapter IV. Support
sector employment is projected to rise from 461 to 1,000, while
government employment is projected to rise from 600 to l,035.
Table · E-3 provides projections of nonresident employment.
Nonresident emp 1 oyment is projected to rise from 1, 656 in 1980 to
2,440 in 2000. All of these values were assumed. Finally,
Table E-4 provides a summary of employment totals by different
categories.
SCIMP·Model Impact-Projections
Ap-pendixes F, G and H present tables showing the· SCIMP. model OCS
impact projections for eight variables. These are resident
population, enclave population, total population, total resident
employment, basic sector employment~ support sector employment,
government emp 1 oyment, and total resident and enc 1 ave employment.
Appendix F includes separate tables for each case and variables
which show the base case projections, impact projections, absolute
impacts, and percentage impacts. Appendixes G and H show the
absolute and percentage impacts for all four cases together,
facilitating comparison of the effects of different cases. Our
discussion is based on appendixes G and H.
102
.. :.~ ... _;__.~:... . .-'.·~:.~
[
[
[
[
L
C'
['
c
r
I
!:::co
[
[
[
c
[~ .
[
[
L
'~ L
[
___ l
·--'
--::
·-~---~-.:_~~:..i....:::.::~·-·--_:. :_ ~~,,~~;...~-:.. -~-·-· ---.... ._~'-----'-..-:._:_,_~_i::::o...:_::::.~J:-" .·.: ------~--· •;:, ...... :.:~-:·_. -·-· _.-------.. --------·---~----------··----· -· ----
Resident population impacts are shown in Table G-1. In all cases,
the maximum population i~pacts occur in 1995 or 1996. The maximum
impacts are 441 in the .6 Bbbl case, 281 in the 1.2 Bbbl
road-connected case, 259 in the 1.2 Bbbl remote case, and 551 in the
2.4 Bbbl case. In percentage· terms,· the maximum population impacts
are 6 percent, 4 percent~ 3 percent, and 7 percent, respectively
(Table H-1). The impacts are higher in the ~6 Bbbl case than the
L2 Bbbl cases because all of the air support activities occur in
the Aleutian Islands instead of some support being based on
St. Matthew or SL PauL Thus, a lower level of discovery might
actually have a slightly greater impact if it resulted in the
establishment of fewer "forward 11 support bases. However, the
greater level of activity in the 2o4 Bbbl case results in this case
hav·ing the highest impact, even though only some of the support is
based in the Aleutians. The 1.2 Bbb1 road-connected case has a
slightly gr~ater impact than the remote case. This is because, with
a remote or non road-connected transshipment termi na 1, fewer of the
employees are assumed to be 1oca1 residents.
Similar patterns as for resident population may be seen in the
impacts for all of the other variables examined~ Enclave population
impacts (Tab 1 es G-2 and H-2) are highest during the construction
year of 1989, when they are 770 in the 1.2 Bbbl cases. Enclave
employment impacts then fall before rising again to long-term
operations phase employment lev~l, in 1996. Operatio~s phase
enclave employment impacts are 549 in the 1.2 Bbbl cases. I,n
103
... ,·....:._ ·.c~:.: ~~-· ·~~-.. :-.-.·-~· -· ~· ~·-· -· ..
percentage terms, enclave employment rises by between 45 and 48
percent in all cases during the peak construction year of 1989.
Thus, the total number of _OCS industry enclave_workers would equal
about half the number of fishing industry enclave workers projected
for that year.
Combined resident and enclave population (Tables G-3 and H-3) rises
by a maximum of between 821 and 1,312, or 15-19 percent. Peak
absolute and percentage impacts occur in different years for
different cases~ This is because impacts upon resident population
tend to rise over the projection period, whereas impacts upon
enclave population occur earlier.
Impacts upon tot a 1 resident emp 1 oyment (Tab 1 es G-4 and H-4)
generally rise over the period, with early peaks occurring in 1985
and 1989. Maximum impacts are between 351 and 387, or 12 percent
and 13 percent for the different cases. The largest component of
+hn -t".,....,..\An.~t.""n. ;,... ~"""+~1 __ ,..;,.,_ ..... +-'""..,.._,_,,no._..,.,
t.oll~ Ill VI t;Q.;)(; J II \.V \o.Q I I C.;» I UCU'"' C:llltJ I U.JIIICII I,.. iS "'-----.:--. ...... -.:....! ...... -• ua;:,11.. IC;)IUCIII..
emp 1 oyment (Tab 1 es G-9 and H-9) • This direct OCS emp 1 oyment was
assumed. Long-run resident operations phase OCS employment is
between 225 and 298, causing an increase of 12 to 16 percent in
total basic employment. The increases in basic resident employment
are roughly paralleled by similar but smaller increases in services
and government emp 1 oyment (Tab 1 es G-10, G-11, H-1 0 and H-11). The
impacts do not exactly correspond since services and government
104
[
[
c
[
L
[
L
[
r I
I Leo
(",
L.
[
[
c
[
[
[
L
L ..
c~
L
-
-· :_ ... .._ ~~----·--' -~~ .
employment are also affected, to a lesser degree, by enclave
employment. Services employment increases by a maximum of between
120 and 164, or between 19 and 24 percent. Government emp-1 oyment
increases by a maximum of between 28 and 61, or between 3 and
7 percent.
In summary, OCS development of the Navarin Basin would increase
resident emp 1 oyment by a maximum of about 370 in 2000. Impacts in
earlier years would be lower, with a maximum percentage increase of
about 12 percent occurring in the mid-1990s. Resident population
would increase by a maximum of between 200 and 400, with the maximum
percentage increases of 3 to 7 percent also occurring in the
mid-1990s~ In general, the projected increases in employment exceed
the projected increases in population, which suggests that many of
the jobs would go to Aleutian Islands residents.
105
'J :1 - J 9 I I 0 90T ----------r---~-,-_.,..p--~~----~-------~~---------
__ ...; ____ ;;. --~------·· ·.--·:
• ·--,;.<.:....~ -~ J---____ ..:._ ___ ,~------_____ :., _____ . ----------------=--·--"'-·-·---~ ~--·---· ----.-------·---~ .: .. -~-.-~.-~~:_j__i~.:..__,_·~~
____ )
-,
'
i
··-··
~
~;.
CHAPTER VII.
LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL PROJECTIONS
The model projections developed in this report do, we believe,
provide a useful indication of several kinds of basic impacts upon
the state and the A 1 eut ian Is 1 ands which OCS deve 1 opment of the
Navarin Basin might have. However, s i nee 1 arge amounts of
information printed by computers can sometimes convey an unwarranted
impression of accuracy, it is useful to review briefly several
limitations of the modeling process used~ These are the lack of
seasonality, the uncertainty of structural assumptions, and the
uncertainty of policy assumptions. Finally, we add a few comments
about limitations in the interpretation of the model results.
LACK OF SEASONALITY
Work on OCS development in the Navarin Basin would be highly
seasonal, especially during the construction phase. Trading off
accuracy for practicality, the MAP and SCIMP models are annual
models which average employment inputs over the year. As a result,
they tend to underestimate the maximum employment effects which
might be felt at peak construction seasons. The strain on
facilities and social tensions implied by the impact population
figures might be considerably higher during the pe,ak construction
seasons.
107
___ I
--,
;
l
~
--" =
might have. We have had to make assumptions about those policies,
some of which are explicit as in the case of state expenditures in
the lvl.AP mode 1, but most of which are imp 1 i cit--generally, government -.
is assumed to continue to behave as it has in the past. Thus, many
of the impacts projected by this study could be changed by different
government policies. We have not attempted to consider such
mitigating impacts in this study.
OCS IMPACTS AND "WELL-BEING"
In themselves, the model results say relatively little about what
OCS development might really mean for Alaska or the Aleutians.
Changes in employment and population are only a first, albeit
necessary, step toward answering more interesting questions. Some
of these can be answered in a fairly straightforward manner, such as
what additional housing, transportation, and government revenue
requirements might result from OCS development. Other questions are
much more subtle, such as how the well-being of different groups
might be affected by OCS development. 11-.. .: , , --· -•.&..---.a. ,._ Wt::! WI I I !lUI.. <lt..l..t::!IIIIJ 1.. I..U
address this question at all, other than to point out the
limitations of the model projections in answering it.
One problem is that impacts may be extremely localized. For
ex amp 1 e, in percentage tenns, the impacts projected for A 1 ask a and
for the Aleutian Islands appear relatively small. However, many of
the impacts would be concentrated in Dutch Harbor. For this
community, they would be proportionately larger.
109
A still greater problem arises in trying to define what constitutes
"well-being," or desirable ·and undesirable impacts. Different
groups wi 11 have greatly ..differing i.nterpretat.ions about what is
desirable. Even the same groups may find their attitudes changing
over time so that impacts which were at one time viewed as
undesirable are later viewed in a positive light--or vice versa.
Thus, our model projections cannot really tell us very much about
"well-being~" They do, however, provide basic information which,
properly interpreted and allowing for the limitations of the
projection methodology, can allow different groups to begin to make
their own assessments of the effects of OCS development.
110
[
[
[
[
r~
[
L
[
r-·
I
I
L
1'.
I
[
L
[:
~
[~ ,
J
[
[
[
r:
L
[
"-.:;
REFERENCES
Alaska Consultants, Inc. 1970. City of Sand Point Comprehensive
Plan~ Alaska State Hou~ing Authority, Anchor~ge.
Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. 1979.
Numbers: Basic Economic Statistics of Alaskan Census Divisions.
Juneau. ·
Alaska Department of Fish and Game~
Commercial Fisheries Statistics.
Alaska Catch and Production:
Various years.
Alaska Department of Fish and Game. 1981. Groundfish Catch
Fishery Management Statistics, {included in North Pacific
Briefing Paper)~ Juneau.
Alaska Department· of Labor~ Alaska Labor Force Estimates. Various
years.
Alaska Department of Labor~ Alaska Economic Trends. Various years.
Alaska Department of Labor~
Statistics~
1979. Occupational Employment
Alaska Department of Labor~ 1979. Alaska Population Overview.
· Juneau.
Alaska Department of Labor. 1981. Alaska 1980 Population: A
Preliminary Look. Juneau.
Alaska Department of Labor. 1964-1980. Statistical Quarterly.
Juneau.
Arctic Environmental Information and Data Center. 1978. Village
Profiles for False Pass~ St~ Paul, St. George, Belkofski, Nelson
Lagoon, Nikolski, Atka, Akutan, and King Cove. Prepared for the
Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs.
Arthur D~ Little, Inc. 1978. The Development of a Bottomfish
Industry: Strategies for the State of Alaska. Technical
Appendix, Vol. 2. A Report to the Office of the Governor.
Earl R. Combs, Inc~ 1981. St. George Basin and North Aleutian
Shelf Commercial Fishing Analysis. Bureau of Land Management,
Anchorage. OCS Technical Report No. 60.
Goldsmith, Scott.
Documentation
Research).
Man in the Arctic Program:
(Anchorage, Institute of
111
Alaska Economic Model
Social and Economic
-~ ---·----___ .;._ .. ·-~----. __ _.. ____ , __ -----· -· ----· -··------· ----··· ~ ... :.: __ .__.._:_.:.:__:__:_,_ ---~ :-.,_..;",._. ___ .r. --~-.:..:... __ :._~~-.,., • -·-
Jones, O.M. 1973~ Patterns of Vi 11age Growth and Decline in the
Aleutians. Institute of Social, Economic, and Government
Research, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.
Knapp, Gunnar. 1982. The Small Community Impact Model (SCIMP):
Structure, Variable -Definition·s, and ·Input Assumptions
(Anchorage, Institute of Social and Economic Research), May.
Tryck, Nyman, and Hayes. 1979. Recommended Community Development
Plan: City of Unalaska, Alaska. Prepared for the City of
Unalaska.
112
.. :_. :: .• ~~--"-!"••;=._~,;_
[
[
[
r·
r·
r
[-
r--
r
I
! L,
I'
L.
[
l~
c
L
E
~ L.~
[
I-
~ 0
L
L
SNOI1J3PO~d 3SVJ 3SV9 30IM31V1S 1300W dVW V XION3ddV . ,_
J ~1 - I J .~J J ] ~.:C1 ~ ~ J J J cl ~J J ] J l I _ _j ] J J J Z-'d
--"
:--,
=
~
_____ __:_. _____ .:._ . ..::...:......:, .. ~-~~--~------'--·-·'·---. ..:.".
Table A. 1.
Table A.2.
Table A.3.
Table A.4.
Table A~5.
Table A.6.
Table A.7~
Table A~8.
·t-· ... . ..... . ;_ ~-.--..:.~~;.i:~i:.:.:... -~·-· .... ___ .-.. _:;: .. -:~---~,., --~--~~--~c.:.:::··;±;:...: :::~-:~1~;dY;;;~i~;._ ... /_~fi::::"·.,.;.::::.:.·i:~,;aci
LIST OF APPENDIX A TABLES
Summary
Population and Components of Change
Employment
Real Personal Income
Real Wage Rates·
State Government Revenues
State Government Expenditures
Combined Fund Balance
A-3
] v-\1' ,-, J -1 l j d ";" J J J ] 'I I I :....J ] ~-1 J J '] ] J J ~~-:~t:~"'.*~~:~~·~,_·;-~~-:.~_::~~~-~·~-::~~,:::t<-;:·~'~-.':.:·:~~~-~ .. -c-~---".~ ·:'·;. ~·.:-.: .. ':'7.-~~---· .. -:~~-~-~---•-: ... ,' • . .. -~---\~-~ . . -:7~-~ .. ~-·,._--=;:·-:c:---~---. ·;..•:. ---.. ·-;·......,....~ .. -,.--------~___,~---. ""'''-., ·--------· -----
. ~-::: ;::~~.::.. ·-. ~ ~::··-=-7 -.· -· _ c&/J"ZJ"6. <13.1H3~:l-~t.s3s~gs t.~orJJ:nnwrs-"7-~crnw:-~dtH·J =~Mn&s · .-OL€~8206[ e~£"622~ 0~~-~.!961 8.!8"882~ ... Ot-8 "t-1 €:02 ~0 ::: • t:t.-€ ir -· Ot-G"~t-602 O~:~·tt'i:"/:r :· 0-t-~ "E.~S 'te 099 "9%"1:-;.:~oeo."OS r22 .sat· tL!;;t-~-sa ·st.L22 ot-e: "999t-~,:{i9L "882£~ 2L 1 "1:-.L!., t::-'t;t.-.,-. • ·-·'::lq•:-·7 d_.r-,.__-.' • ._ .... _,.__-., ~.· .7::..,. •. \;}-:... .::1 C.-·---· ._. v: 0~ ::y Joe-.,.., ' ... -OS't"22E.£:2 9S"et:o~ 0Sv"t80t-2 9t-L"8.LtG Ot.L"222t-2 ~29"8.L2S .• 066.S02t-2 9S9"86SS :?~ot-t--·at--t t--2. E:89 • 9·;.::: G ~~T: OE:~. 0 €:E:::::2 ·9 t €: • 6 t t ·;. 092"92922 990"~2~9 oa~·~tL22 .L.L2"L6L9 OE€"£:00~2 086"1289 or:~ ·~:::sa E.::::o • tt-89 OOS"8£E82 210"0€89 028"G!~22 GOt"2€89 O~l"96S02 886"SS.L9 Ot-8"62!81 t-28"t-I89 __ oo9"9::::o.Lt c:·;.o·a£tL -~.:·_:0~-B "28:~S1 · L~O "t2tL -~--0€'1 ·::::9S::::t 2€8 "6Sf;L o~~-E26tt 860"919.! ·. _.o~~ · ts~ n 017"'32801 8~9-~L£8 081 . I 20 9 . cs a:::6 D ~-. "':.:.'::.-::_~3 J 1-fl::lli:l H --Sllr-.lCI..::l Cl3j-..JIHWOJ ~l.1di::IJ d3d ::: t t-".SEt-8 s·~6 ·setL I~ 1 • :;::86 t-($ 286 t) .l.I !Jj-..J3dX3 1.t.J3Wj-..Jd3AO~' 1:11.Idi=IJ d3d 081 "SS9~ SLE· . I '31.L to 9L9 • !;; LE:-t-E.!.'? "666t--€.~(1 "88'I~ 8E.£"8l2~ .. .Ll.l .-9€t-~ -s-;.o ·sE:;.s 209"L06S !08"2.£19 €.~£"00t9 00£ . t :::·5f9 ~o::: "9SE.9 :::: !S ·o:::r.L ,-.. -.) =s -=·'-·~2€L ~96.9f;~L .-.. -..... .:. -=" ·o~~L so I • £;:::6L f.t-6 ·o ra:=: t·.L::: • .L.LSB o e.L "6S06 092 "2066 062 ·::::.LI6 098 • 0 r-.L6 0 .L2 "88£€. 022 . 6!26 .L£6 "LL!8 ao -r.-·:==·~:::a 0 t ·=' ·~260 1 0 60 "f8£E, :=: 68. E. '92L. ($ 286 0 S3rJ~-.J3t.3:::i J.j-..J3W}../d3/',0~1 I:U.Idl:iJ ;:::i3d 698 • LL2 60S "£6S ·992 "S.L2 2IO ·Be:~ 9CE: ·2L2 T~9 ·2E:~ .Lt-:~ "OL2 lS2. .LL~ ~f.t .. L9C ·t-16 .. 12.£ 88l-~92 802 •.Qc.r· --.-:~~ ~2L~892 129 •t9~ 9€:s··l9C! 699·9~S f;:~c ·o9a S~6 "!SS r-..t-· .I • C•1-. -:t .=.::a'-'-'='-· llf ·l~G t2::: ·e:~2 090 ·ns 82t-"SS2 6!£ . L.t:~ 29t-' .. 8~2 J -,,-.. ._c.:,. e -,.-.,-. CC..::~ LE:O ·o~a €. l'E: •,-.":fr--.=~·--..::1 20 9 ·:::~~2 G8·~ .f;2f; 1r::.s c.r-·1·-::t .::z~·-· SOE. ··:::2£; ::::92 .. -,-.-, t::• ..::r ·=-i:' ::::::: .. -~,--•:...•:-.:::r 0 t-0 .. -,,-. ..., C•::.•:. t-£0 .,-.T,-·-:. 1-.:;:, C•...&.. .1 • .• r·-:r ·-·,... ..:_· '-='-· E.sr-·~:tf; SE.£ "0 92 ,-,,-.... C·~,.-. ! i£ t-E.t-·2·~2 .LO :;:: "80S .L :::s "2L2 t-lt. "totS 19! ·~L2 f;L2 "2!S 8!L"9£2 2:~:fi .. f:E:~ :::~s • t t:-2 89t "L9i:' t-:=:L •.t:-:~2 i:'L! ·ss~ 0 1L ·c:~:2 OLE:: • E~t'~ ~ ,. ,-, . ,. ,._._. 1:· '=· ";:' .. ·~-·=· €:£~ .. 2V·t--E.2! .l22 9:36 "22t:' £61 "£:!2 t-16 . id t 6t:-t • t>O 2 L£0 ·2o~ (0001:) (000!) J.j-..J3WAOldW3 ~OI1.8~ndOd ll::llOl 181.01 .................... -::.:::'""'-.: ,.l.ol::lwwns --· ···:. ... ••• ., • i .. ~ ................ .; ...... .; ; ............................. ._............ ':{ . ·-..c-.-" .. , : SNOI..LJ3:f0'8:d 3:SVJ 3:SVS: 3:CII..ci.a.rV.LS 'I:±CIOR cf'VR ·-."-:~. ----· ... --"" ·~ ~· .... 010Z 60~~0: _ 80.0~'---LOt;~~.-900"t"""\: -,. ... ~ •'"'J)-\li"7 .::. ·.·c ... ~· ·t-Otlt.:· .--~ so o·z-~. -:.. ->• zoot~~ 100Z OOOZ" f.66T"" ~~:!~~ 966T'~' S66T ~E.6T-26.:. T 2661 1 E. E. 1 OE.E.T 6::;6 T :;:::::61 LE:t.·r .. -.. 986 T >~ £:=:6-r··. -~E:6t. €::36 t .. a::::6T 18HT 0 :::c.1 l ] g ~] J J . .., i I ;_j ] l ] ] J
R
:·::; ... ..:.:.'. ~--·~·-~.:..... :: . .:...:: . .;..;..,. ~-:_
TABLE A.2.
PlAP !"10DEL STFtTEijJIDE .E:ASE · c;=r::E PROJECTIO.t-i:S:: .................. "'"' ........................................ ..
1'31:30
19S1
1'~:=:2
1';t:3:3
1984
1985
19:36
1987
1988
1'3189
1990
1991
1992
1 QQ~ ~~~
1994
1995
1996
l QQ? ~~·
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
POPULATION AND COMPm~ENTS OF CHANGE .......................... , .............. ...
<THOU:SAI'iiiS)
~ ...........................
TOTAL CHAt'iGE IN f·iET NATURAL
POPULATION POPULATION MIGRATION INCREASE
402.057
414. '3114
4:32 e •;.:?,E.
4 ·•·::. e.-•. -. ""'tL.;. •• _ •• :, •• j
4 4::: • :::: 7 0
455. 174
· 467 = lE.:=:
4::::=:. 5:32
512u275
514.974
508.807
5~1.458
513.459
518.054
s·2:3. :3:::4
52:-=: .:, ,-,·-:-
-8 ...... ·-·
52~ .... ~-·C'
-e '=••=··-'
525. ::: 1'3
C' ·:· ·=· ·::· ·=· ~ _, ·-· '-. ·-· '-(
s::=:7. 51·~
544.060
547.317
551.955
556.669
561.621
s~.E·~~ 7 o:=:
571.914
577 a 2·~:1
5:::2~~ E·51
e.-.. ;:. n 12 -'·=··-·· ..
5 '3I:::: 0 5 0'3
-7.400
12.857 6.727
18.072 11.772
-~ ~n~ 9.54~ ~.ooc
5o !=;:~!7 -o. 842
6.804 0.250
11.989 5.505
21~369 14.740
23.743 16.602
2.698 -5.0i6
-6.167 -~13.599
2.652 -4.178
2.000 -4.623
4.595 -1.818
S~~:~::;:o
o. 51';il
1. 7:31
Oe 1:::5
.;: .. 50!3
:;-., 1 ·;.2
E•o 541
::::.257
4. E.:;::::
4.714
4 qe·:•
Ill ... ·-''-
=·~~ o:::7
5. 2 OE.
5.::::17
5.420
5 B ;362
5. 4'36
-0.9'318
"'"-~~ -~.(00
4 -: .. ::.·-=·
-1!1 '--'-··-·
-5. 7:=:1
0.791
-0. 5':?4
0~~ ?:3::: -·=· ... :_. t::•l :3
-1.167
-1.085
-0.841
-0.709
-0.595
-0.493
-0.399
-0.469
-0.343
E·. 4:=:2
G: 111
6 G :;: 04
6 a£:,'(:::: ... _.. __ ..
'=· .. '=• ( b
6.544
6.476
6.630
7.156
. 7.733
7.414
6. 7':;t8
6. E.06
6 0 ~!'35
6.314
f. 8 272
6. 04::::
5; :::·~E~
5 a Er'~5
C": ..,...,£:"
. ._lo(f-1
58 7::::7
r: ~-·C'""" ._1 ro •=•·..J 1'
5~~ ?:=:E.
5 e {:!; 1
C" --C"
._1 0 ( ( ·-' -__ .....
:1 G (,.. (
:. 0 {:=::~:
5.790
5.800
5.811
5.818
~--~-· ,;:,-:..:.;.~~:..,::.:..~~·-1 .• :'..:;·;,!.-...:.~ •. .:.;;:; ~~~~-..:-~~,,-_
[
[
L
r,
hi
r t J
' I•
r-
L.
J
L
I'
I
I
~~
[
[
c
r i;;""
r-·
L
c
[ -
~
NOTE: TOTALS MAY .NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING L
SOURCE:· MAP MODEL SIMULATION SBASE83N--CREATED 9/21 ·S2 I -
\-c
• c Lj
A-6 L
[
[
f'
L
r'
h~
r,
L
D
r~
r
I t_,
{·
L
c
6
e
{-)
cy.
l
L
Q
L
fl
L'
"'""
L
•
1980
1981
1982
1 QO~ ~v~
1984
1985
1986
1987
19:38
19:3·~
19'?0
1'391
1 ·::.·::.-~ --.. ~
1 ·::;,·:::;,:::
1'?94
1 ~3·:;.s
1'?96
1997
19'?8
199'?
.2000
2001
. 2002
.2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-···-· ~~ • :~ ~:..::.. · ...... ~.:..---.• ~--·:; ._ -~-~-;~:~-...:;~<--·:· '"'--~----. -..
TABLE A~3~
-.. .:..::· --1: !:!.EL ·s: T~ TS•_,_, I I 1E E:A:;:E C:A:S:E F'RO~JEC: T IOt·~~s:
....................... $ •• ,~ ......................... ......
EI'1PLO'r'r1ENT ........................
(THOU:S:ANDS) ...... ~ ..................
BASIC SERVICES TOTAL WAGE
SECTOR SECTOR GOVERNMENT AND SALARY TOTAL
~MPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT
46.048
4:::. 4 09
5'2 0 7:3:3
5:~:. -~=27
52 .. ~::=:o
5:3. 015
SE. DE. E. I)
Er4 • 52:3
71. :::54
E·E·. :::2·3
=~:, jC'~ _, .... 1..--·~
5"3. 961
60.117
60.496"
50.881
59.381
s·~. ::::34-
57. ?.3E·-
-=· 0 0 -345
61.019
~.2. 4;=:4
62.611
~·=·. 734
E=2. ;;:·?E.
63.11'?
.::.-;;. :;:::::9
-=· :::: . -=· '3 5
EA. 0:.:::::
-::.4.411
~.4. 724
E:5. o·~?
---------~
7r3. ;::12
81.714
86.641
90.060
91.951
9::::.-E.l 7
~=t ? ·=· ·::. ·=-~·I 9 b.,·'-'
105.326
114.964
115.800
113.160
t12.063
109~831
110.354
111.365
1 o:::. :::2E·
108.199
107.122
108.322
109.573
111.566
111.332
112.871
114.367
116.078
11 7. :=: ::::::
11 '?. 7'3:3
121. 7'~7
12:3. ::::31
125.·~75
12:=:. 1;:::3
7:::. 5:::·;.
!3::::. 071
:=:7. 755
;:::::. :~: 12
·=··=· ·":·?·-·
'-''-' D ·-1 f ":J
::::3. 15:3
:37.5:36
:::E. o :=:6:3
;::7. :343
8'3. 758_
·~o. 1):33
::::=:. :371
:::7.800
:::7.1'=..1
:::7 .. 017
::: .: .. ::: ::: 4
~=:s. 5E:3
~::5. 2-=··::. '--·
::: 4-. 7 '?-E.-
:::4 D :::::::5
:::4., ?71
:::4:E:12
':::4. 630
:::4.57::::
~::4 D 527
84.506
84.502
84.512
84.534
84.567
:::4. 5:=:·3
190.192
198.449
211.629
215.944
216.891
218.841
225~217
2::::·~. s:::: 1
.-. r:: r:, ·~~. 7 .::,._ .. _ .. -
254.271
244. ·~11
242. :::·;.E.
240.359
240.585
241.681
238.144
236.182
2:32. 75'3
2-"35. :::2-tf.
2::::7. 5::::.:.
240.564
240.502
241 . :::·~·?
243.410
245.191
247.134
249.221
251. 4:3'3
25::::.777
25€ ... 07:~
25:3.5:31
2 04. 44"?
. 21:3. l'~S
227 a 12"?
2::::1. t: ~?·?
2::::2.710
2::::4 0 r~::4
241. 54::::
256. 7 !:~;
274.161
272. ·;;:;7
2E•2c .4?4
2E.O. :::·?5
257. 74!::
25:::. ..! (!
2 5';.. ;_-: ·~:
255. ·:-:-:
25:;:.-;·;~
250, :;;
25::::. ~ ~.~·
255 . .: .::~:-·
25:::. : .:.l
2 5::: ~ -:--: :-
26(.~~~
~'1 - -~b -~~~
2€.:~:.? ..::~
2E.5. 7 ·:· ;~
2E.7 D ~~ ?5 .-......... c...-U. :347
272. ;::.::-:
275·. 2r:-~.
277. s.:.·?
S:!JUF'r--:=~ . ---. M8P MODEL SIMULATION SBASE83N--CREATED ·~.-··"21 ... ·-:::2
A-7
TABLE AA.
MAP MODEL STATEWID~ BASE CASE PROJECTiONS: ........................................... "' ........... ..
REAL PERSONAL INCOME ......................................
PERSONAL
INCOME
<MILLIONS
1982 $)
PER CAPITA
PER:S::ONFtL
Ir·JCOME .
(1982 $)
1980 6247.679 15539.260
1981 6551.144 15789.140
1982 7081.304 16354.580
1983 7300.378 16497.910
1984 7339.421 16369.100
1985 7480.527 16434.420
1986 7990.835 17105.020
~oo~ 01~0 1on 1o~oo ~1n
.L. -·~'-'I •. ·• I •. · • .&.·•-•• .. • .&. 1
-1 I '-' ... ·a ·-1 .&. '•'
19:::8 10462. 730• 20424. 040
1989 9922.060 19267.100
1990 6886.261 17464.890
19'31 :::779.2:=:0 17165.070
1992 8682.132 16909.100
1993 8769.375 16927.520
1994 8877.281 16961.310
1995 8821.000 16837.070
1996 8827.140 16791.680
1997 8764.835 16668.900
1998 8945.421 16804.350
1999 9~70.840 16875.370
2000 9261.790 17023.470
2001 9329.610 17046.080
2002 9462.750 17144.040
2003 9599.870 17245.200
2004 9749.930 17360.320
2005 9908.360 17484.040
2006 10074.460 17615.320
2007 10248.010 17753.720
2008 10428.700 17898.680
2009 10604.090 18033.790
2010 10795.460 18189.210
. --· ~,_,_.,. ·.;:.'
[
L
. {
L -
('
l
L~
r~
t.
V"
{'_,
l
r~
l
I
\·
r·
l
c
(
cj
f~ L
~
f
SOURCE: -MAP· MODEL SIMULATION SBASE83N--CREATED 9/21-~~ lJ
A-8
(
1::. tc--= L_;
r
L
6-'r/
082"82~2.€ OL2"0~0~2
088"92898 0~9"226~2
0~~-98298 022"908~2
0 2L. LS9~E: 02£;. I t.9t--C
0~~"680~8 096"92.~~2
09~"!8~~2 080"89~~2
028"28622 o~r·o~8~2
OL!"9~~S8 028~982~2
06~"8!622 or~·osr~2
06S"86828 0~8"000~2
Ot0"~68t€ 092."8~0~2
062"668!€ 082"~~682
o~~·~r608 088"99e8a
088"09662 02S"OOLS2
0.:!.6"06~62 090"9I~S2
060"8~062 o~o·s~222
089~62.182 026"9~!82
02E .• 89LL2 O~:t•L2fi!~2
020"6L8L2 02.6"2£682
ooo·~os2.2 o~a·9ras2
OSL"22tL2 090"98!92
092"SZS92 099"I6L~2
OL9"~L6S2 009"!8222
098"80S~2· OL~"S~922
ott~s~t~2 o~2·92.~22
066"2!8~2 089"S~822
08~·ts~~2 o~8"8St22
02S"S99S2 09L"S9~22
Ot€"69~22 098"~2922
OSE· "690 9::::
0~0 "E:89~E
062. "60~~:::
006. L~J) fi8
0~~ "fiL~::::
o~s · L~o v:::
021 ·o::::L::·::
0 L ~ "::::2~8:::
0 1 :::: • sc l :::::::
0 0 0 • :::£.!..2::·
02! "8!~2:::
Ot:-t "9~82€
o 92 · f..t:::z::::
0 ·~b . ~·;..! 2:::
0 2"3 • C!f;:=: t :::~
o~2-~toa::::
. o ts ·oes2::::
008 "202.6::::
0 I L "6E.S::::~
0::::::. i:-8 t 22
Ot--L "182£.2
0 ·;.f; .. E,·t :=::::·2
o :=:o • '3122f,2
0 0 L ··3·S~:::2
OOfi ·::::~2L2
O':il~"t02L2
~01:13:S: ~DLJ3:S· :::IDLJ3S:
l!-..13WJ..Id3/·,0~I S:3J I ,···,d3:S': .:1 I :S:I:I::f
. . . . . . . . . . . . ... .................
S:3.ll:ld 3:91:W! l8'3d
0!02
6002
:::ooa
LOiJ2
':ill) 0 2
~002
~(I 0::
:::.oo2
2002
!00:?
0002
E.E.E·!
866!
LE-E·!
'3lf.E. I
Sf.E. t
~E.6 t
fE.6 I
266t
t66t
066!
9:::E.l
s:::E. t
t-:::f.!
t 8E. !
_ o:::6 t
.............................. " ..................... ..
•
"l .
L.. 'Oo-l
'·l \J
J
,-··
i ~ \. t:--
l
n
d
'l
~j
:''-.
\ _j
,---,
1
1.;·~
""• i
I
J
]
r
']
l
'· j
==,
)
J
'j
u
]
"l :-j , I i:} i • y ~-\ i ! ! ...... ·l ,· •,\ { ' ) I r (J ! ,·, t • 0 0 B2 :· t :=: • 0 t-S2 t : :::: • t e. E. 2 :; ~· t:-• ::::G 0 :::: ;st. tE.GE: .:E.2 a :::o L:~· :: t L • 9:::: t t:-2S'9"E.09t> 20t> "£.60S 80 ::: • t I) .L t> l ~!:: a •::-6 t t ;~L ·9·~9:::~ ;~o ot.f;·;.:~: .:... 20 "0 ::::L t> ·=~.:. l 0 ~:6:38 :;rL ·aet.a ::3m.J3/·,3::::1 11:llDl 0!-\f 6t0"028 sst·2se 96t"Lt-9 60E"89t-t-Lt-"tos 06t"~S8 .::!.88"689 OSO"tOG 60L"88l Ll2"1l8 Oll"l89 290"6t>~ 2l8"8ll 162"688 Ol0"~29 1l8"86£ t29'8Gl 888"90€ 91£"919 St1"t-£9 OtS"t-t-l 8t0"226 021"609 SS9"£1L 6LO"lEL 091"986 268"109 8L2"t-8l 96£"61.::!. 606"tt-6 .L£8"t:-6£ 168"016 089"LOL Stf"0£6 091"88£ O££"t10l 216"669 L8E"2£6 tl£"18£ 26t"22t1 916"£89 t08"6t6 St6"9l~ t10"0L21 988"8l9 t2t-"tt6 tG9"L9£ t:-Lt"80tt 66L"6£9 968"086 SL2"09£ 628"2£~1 f:f:E. • :::~·~ :::lO • E. l ~. E-dO . l £f: ::::st. ·:;.t-·? 1 £89"8£9 882"11€ 888"0££ £62"08L1 861"198 918"£16 L08"8t£ i'-'8l"Ll6l 028"918 991"026 69£"Lt£ 88L"l912 892"t-IE £8£"806 L€.6"68£ 698"8L82 ~68"918 £69"888 89t-"S8£ 08t"LLt2 886"618 9t9"S£8 929"08£ £20"8892 LOr!.. Go::::.:: V09 a LE.L t.~e: 01~2~ t-.. :=:~ atfi€.2 L66"68S s.:::.g·aoL ozg·sss 9tt"t2£8 8tS"S28. 608"989 l8L"t8£ tL€"8028 926"862 .£t8"6££ tso·a6r. 62t"20ts 902"£L2 88£"16t> £6~"L9t t6t"l228 £.Lt"2£2 2t8~62t 899"0£t-tl~"€908 6LS"6t2 str.~o2t L66-o+t 986"££~2 £82"0£2 2St"80t t>OL"28t> S£9"2l£2 26£"0t2 6t9"£08 Ot1~6lt 6t9"t-9L8 806".::!.22 616"£22 99t"868 089"888£ ~9L"S9[ 6~6"8Et 66t"~L8 ·ot~"L8l2 S3n~3A3~ S9NI~d83 Sl~8d9 S31J~3A3~ d3Hl0 ~S3~3l~I ~8d3U3~ WIJ310~~3d ·····~·················· Si!IYl1Da 28€. t -~0 S:f.IDI~liW ......................... S31Jf:.l3t\3::1 lf.I3Wf..l::::f3,·\0=:r 3lB1S: · ......................................... :~N(!Il.:i3r·odd 3S8J 3S8ff ·11lft!3lYlS: ~31!0!·! d!:ll·J 0102 6002 E:O 0 2 L002 ·::.oo:: so (I ::· . t:-0 0 2 800:: 2002 tOO 2 . 0 00:: E.E.f.l E:E.61· ·:;.E.6 t £661 t>E.E.t ::::66! 26E.! t€.61 066 t E.86! 88E.t L8~.! 986 J SE:f. t 28€. t !86! OE:6T
II-'o' Lt€"6221:=' 9£1 "01£2 8l8"882t £L6"81~2 t08"€t€t 826"0€~2 6€€"11tt 29€"91:='£2 099"98tt £86"£9~2 S2I"lLSP €61:='"06£2 6E€"999t tiL"0292 i l t"Cit-L.lt' i:'!::·3f • .Lg·;.2 9tL"8LtS 8t£"Lt82 S29"8L€£ tt1"I682 9£9"86££ 8!€"0862 '3t::: sf,l t•;t 990 ·ssr.·~ 680"11:='89 26£"21£8 110"0€89 892"861:='8 £01"2889 t22"9Lt€ 886"£SL9 L£l"6LtS 1:='28"1:='!89 990"161:='€ 290"2€tl Ot2"t8tS 9tO"t2tL 9€8"991:='€ 2€€"6££L 2t8"0tt8 0 !02 6002 8002 L002 ·~002 £002 1:='002 f002 2002 !002 0002 E.E,E. t :::E.6 t .!E·E·! ':;tf.E.! £66! 1:='66 t €661 266! 1661 OE.E. t L86 I 9861 L£6"689L 1:='90"€01:='£ 886! Ltt"€81:='8 ISS"t£9£ 2861 896"£E1L Lt8"0962 1861 01:='1"8861:=' 61£"£002 0861 81Id88 ~3d S~OilliW) 11:1101 ····················~····~ .. S3~nlicr~3dX3 l~3W~~3AD9 3l81S -.-:.-=-:::~._! • L"'rl 3"'19'u'l • l J ~:.;,
" .. .:..:.:..--.....::,:,..:.:::.-_.::_ ••• · ·--......... _.:.._._ ---.o-.::.=-:...:..:. •• :L:.o..:.:...:..::.~-'-.:-~' . .:':-~z......;.=..---·--~-·-
TABLE A.B.
1AP MODEL STATEbJIDE BA:S:E CA:S:E PRD.JECTIO·:. .................. ~ ...................... .
COMBINED FUNbS BALANCE
..................................... .,.. .................... ~-o
TOTAL
<MILLIONS PER CAPITA
19::::2 $) (19::::2 $)
1'31::::0 2420.:361 6021. 179
19::::1 3475.1::::5 8375.667
19::::2 4687.6::::3 10826.410
1983 5023.30:::: 11351.250
1984 5346.121 11923.440
19::::5 6173.585 13563.120
1986 1162.925 15332~::::20
1987 8322.921 17036.590
1·;..::::=: ·~ 2:37. 4 7 0 ·1 E: 12·3. :=:2 0
1989 10606.470 20596.140
1990 11~05.320 22415.800
1991 11936.670 23338.490
1992 12242.040 23842.300
1993 12435.020 24003.320
1994 12411.750 23714.410
1995 12377.870 23626.250
1996 12527.430 23830.680
1997 12694.560 24142.430
1998 12885.500 24205.9~0
1999 13020.160 24222.700
2000 13101.740 24081.440
2001 13092.9::::0 23922.110
2002 13039.120 23623.520
2003 12936.290 23238.75
2004 12756.220 22713.21
2005 12553.100 22150.92
2006 12330.200 21559.52
2007 12090.410 20945.53
2008 11836.460 20314.83U
2009 11570.050 19676.520
2010 11293.500 19028.360
-:.:. ~ .:.--·.: ._·. -:~--
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATION SBASE::::3N--CREATED 9/21/~2
A-12
f
6, l,
c;
r·
!
(_,_· .
l_,
("
.\
l'
(~
t_~
( '
I
I.
tf.-
(~
l t
(
J, ;
r~j
l
t·
"\='
r=
{·---·
---
1~ ,, -
f t
f(
f~
[}
L-8 SNOilJ3rO~d lJ~dWI l300W d~W 8 XION3dd'!f f-i -r I j (' \) -->' J '' -) i I )
_,-,1 i ! / ~·~ ~ ~; . I 'J 1: ) ' \ i . J Z-8
r·-j
['\
r
r
l
(,
[
r-.
. ,
(.
['
(
I
I
!
l -"--~ , '
L
rl
'>'
(t
l-.:
l ·,
~}
r' [;
.• ,
[1
r~
\,.
c
[\
~-
c
-... -~;;,.i.,_::.:-::.::..:. .. ::>-~-... .:.-.. -~----:L ... i:.:~~-ti:~~~~~·.;;:;~-£::.~.i:::::~-:}'?:<-i::.::,;:::-~~M§:~i~-::i:;-~::::,~..::.::.:·---:· _.~j_,, ,:<.:-.. · :::-:i;.j1i:::.~~_.~: --;··.~.:;~otl:tt:.:.:2"...:,_., ·:. :·-. _.:...-·~·..;.....:.;:2;i.~-~-~s-~:. ·~.:_; ;:_~;-~:-::.~----~~--::, '~·:~-~ ::::.-~ ·, ... ___ ; _ __.,:,_~,::.-.:::-,~ ... ~-
Table B.l.
Table B.2.
Table B.3~
Table B.4.
Table B.5~
Table B~6.
Table B·. 7 ~
Table B.8~
Table B.9~
Table B. 10 •
Table B~ll.
Table B~ 12.
Table B.13~
Table B. 14.
Table B .15.
Table B~16.
Table B.l7.
Table B~l8~
Table B~19.
Table B.20.
Table 8~21.
Table B.22.
Table 8.23.
Table 8.24.
Table. B~25.
Table 8.26.
Table 8.27.
Table 8.28.
Table 8.29.
Table 8.30.
LIST OF APPENDIX 8 TABLES
.6 BBBL Case: Total Population
.6 B8BL Case: Basic Sector Employment
.6 BBBL Case: Services Sector Employment
~6 BBBL Case: Government Employment
.6 BBBL Case: Total Employment
.6 BBBL Case: Real Personal Income (Millions of 1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita Personal Income (1982 $)
~6 BBBL Case: Basic Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Services Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Government Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Total Real State Government Revenues
{Millions of 1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Total Real State Government Expenditures
· (Millions of 1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita State Government
Expenditures {1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Real Combined Fund Balance
(Millions of 1982 $)
.6 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita Combined Fund
Balance (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Population
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Basic Sector Employment
1. 2 BB.BL Road-Connected Case: Services Sector Employment
1.2 BB8L Road-Connected Case: Government Employment
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Employment
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Personal Income
(Millions of 1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case:·Real Per Capita Personal
Income {1982 $)
1 ? RRRI Qn"'ti-l"nnn.:orh:.ti l""'c:.:o• R"'c:ir <::..:ortnl"' Q.:o;:~l W;:~n.:o Q"'t.:o . ·-----., ___ --····---------· __ ..., ·------· ·~--· ··-;:,-., __ _
( 1982 $)
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Services Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $)
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Government Sector
Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Real State
Government Revenues (Millions of 1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Real State
Government Expenditures (Millions of 1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Ca·se: Real Per Capita State
Government Expenditures (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Combined Fund
Balance (Millions of 1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Real Per Capita Permanent
Fund Balance (1982 $)
B-3
-~---_,_ .... , __ , -: '~ -.. :: _:..__' . -~--.. . ............... ·...,._ :. ·-·~ _ _::_:.·..:__.:·.
List of Appendix B Tables (continued)
Table 8.31.
Table 8.32.
Table 8.33.
Table 8.34.
Table 8.35.
Table B~36.
Table 8.37~
Table 8.38.
Table 8.39.
Table 8.40.
Table 8.41.
Table B.42.
Table 8.43.
Table 8.44.
Table 8.45.
Table B.46.
Tab 1 e B .47.
Tab 1 e 8.48.
Table 8.49.
Table 8.50.
Table 8.51.
Table 8.52.
Table 8.53.
Table 8.54.
Table 8.55.
Table 8.56.
Tab 1 e B. 57.
Table 8.58.
Table 8.59.
Table 8.60.
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Population
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Basic Sector Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Services Sector Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Government Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Personal Income
(Millions of 1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Per Capita Personal
Income (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Basic Sector Real Wage Rate
(1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Services Sector Real
Wage Rate (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Government Sector
Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Real State
Government Revenues (Millions of 1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Real State
Government Expenditures (Millions of 1982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Per Capita State
Government Expenditures tl982 $)
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Combined Fund
Balance (Millions of 1982 $)
1-.2 BBBL Remote Case: Real Per Capita Permanent
Fund Balance (1982 $)
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Population
2.4 BBBL Case: Basic Sector Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Services Sector Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Government Employment
2.4 8BBL Case: Total Emolovment
2.4 BBBL Case: Real Personal Income (Millions of 1982 $)
2.4 BBBL Case: Real Per Capita Personal Income (1982 $)
2.4 B8BL Case: Basic Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
2.4 BBBL Case: Services Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
2.4 BBBL Case: Government Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
2.4 8BBL Case: Total Real State Government Revenues
(Millions of 1982 $)
2.4 BB8L Case: Total Real State Government Expenditures
(Millions of 1982 $)
2.4 8BBL Case: Real Per Capita State Government
Expenditures (1982 $)
2.4 BB8L Case: Real Combined Fund Balance
(Millions of 1982 $)
2.4 88BL Case: Real Per Capita Combined Fund
Balance (1982 $)
B-4
r
('
fl
(
/
!
\-
c
, I i
l
·/r j ~-
(
\
! !,_
{/-
l. I
·(t
l-~~
-I
t \
u
r~
J. ..
('
-,·
(;
if-
t~
c
S-8 91:=: . ! ·:.) _.1 ·o l ,-.,-,..., "t-0'3 60£ s E:E.b 0 !02 ... e-..... =:JC• ·=· 8E.L . ! i:-.11' ·o T 9:.::b ··:36£; 210 .. -.. -.,-. 6002-......... C•·=·.:. 1'=· ·' gl' SLE: ·o l 920 ·:::E.s T ,-. .::, -~.-.,-. E:002 ._,.._ ..,_ . -=·-=· :;J i:'9L Q ! OE:t ·o ! ll i:' ·L:=:~ lf2 . I If• L002 .::....::...= .!.t-l . l £:E.£ . • 6 l.O E. 0 lE:S t-l E . •tLS ':.0002 =rc· .t . l :~!f: a E• r:w· ··::. ... -. E:OL • C.,•:, ,-. fi002 ._ . ._.e:.,. '-·.:I ..,.;.....:::~ ~ ~:::;, :3tL . l Ofi'? . . -!L2 . t ~' ,-. !29 . l ·:.·-t-002 '=· .:.....::. _ .... :~:I.:! . r 9t:f; ~ ,; . f;02.99~ ""·~·=:t • ·~S;~ :::o 0 ·=' _, ... -· !2L . ! E.61::' ·ts t.-fit-. J-=t·-· fifiE. . J fifi 2002 -· .::1 ~LL . t filL 0€. lfO • .•r·r· L t :.:: . Lt-~ !002 '-".:S.::I t·=··=· . l t·=...:. lfE: 020 • 1=-~£ 0 '311) •t--r.~ 0002 ·-··-· E:'PE. . ! tLt-·o t 066"L'Pfi E. l fi ·L:~:f, f.f.6! i:-66 .. ! t.!9"0 1 Ji;-6 ··2~f; .I '::I•=· ~·-··-· ·c::::s E:6E.t !!0 .-, :~lf; ·o t z.:.:::: "9ff. E.! E: .,-.-,,-. £66T -=· .::rC-~ t:LE. = 1 LE.:::: ·o ! C!E:O 0 9t:£; £;:::·;. ·s2£. ·~E.E. I fiE:O .-. c 92E· ·o t 62:=: . r. e:: f; t:c1 E . • f:2f, fiE.E. T I r-,r-, . l 8.L::: ··E. 2'312 • e:::::: f; t.-E;::: • :~.3fi 1::-E.E.! .::...o•:· Lt.-8 . ! .:,.·=.·-· • E . 029 . ,~.-t.-fiO "8!f. ,-.. -.• T -· .... .::::1 ._c.::J •:..t:•t:l .. 6! ! . ! ·:;ttL-·~ S02"E.!fi E. fit:-·:::tf; 26E. T 8'~'31 ·o 06€: .. -. 6i:' E: "t.-!f; E:fit:-. rtf; ! E. E.! o:,. 92-t:-·o l'?l .-, ·=· t-!6"0 l£ LO::: • 80 fi Of.E.! 8L2. ·o E.t--6 . ! ~-, .-C-•=-1::• • 9! f; t--.!6 "t!f. 6::::6! i:'£2 ·o 80 !S . ! 6L~·8t~ ,-. J-. ·a I~ 886! =-~C L6! ·o i:-96 :Q 9~.1:> • E.E:t-2:::~ . :::::: r. L::~E. t 0£! ·o 20L .. o ~9::: . L'3t €:9! • 0:::9-t:-9:::6! 080 "0 •.:,CfC· -· -· ._. ·o (lj:ofi • f;fit-t.-Ll ·sst-f;:::E.! 000 ·o 0 00 ·o OL8 • 8t:-t:-OLf "8t.-t.-. t--::::E.! 000 ·o 000 ·o ,-. ,-. ,-. c.·:.-= "2'1;-t C·C·t-· ·-··--.=~ • 2t.-t.-:::86 t 000 ·o I) 00 ·o 9::::€. ·a£:i:' 9:::.:. ·e::::t--2:::,:. t 000 ·o 000 ·o t!E. •t-! t t--!6 "t.tt. !E:E.! 000 ·o 000 ·o LfiO ·ao t::-LfiO .• 20 t o:.::E. T -----------------------------------------3J~.J3-o3.::l.::l r G 3J~Bd3.::l.:l I I] 3:S:8J 3:S:Y:I 3S:8:l 1~-J3:]d3d L]l::ldL.JI ............................... 1-JDill::llndDd 18101 ...................... 3S8:1 lff:i:l · '=-' " ........................................................................ :Sj..J0Il33rDdd 138dWI 3GIM318lS l3GOW d8W ~l \. !,0 1 \, ''~ J J ,~1 ~\ \J J ,J ,]
:l . I \ J J .] ~~i ~] ~~ ) ,·J I ') __) J f;'t:-£ a::: 6t'f; CJ :~· c..-.,-.• ·:· el' .:z.= ·-· 89S"f 69f; D::: lL~ q ::: ·aE.fi Q f: Ll'3G~: ::::t-1 "t> LvE."t-osr.·~ .-. }•~ e ,-. -=---· .:1 £;:::: t • 9 ·t-99. L 96£"1:> 02!"! 090 • ! 01£"0 89:::: ·o 0€.2. 0 88"1::-"0· 000.0 ooo·o ooo =o ooo ·o ooo ·o ::::92 Q 2 E:~2 "2 €rf;2 ° 2 E.9c ·a 0 ::::t-. 2 .&... ••• -••• -. ,..~ '='':.· •:.. 0 f. (I • *" E:€:t--•t t-99"0. E:OL"O L9f"O f;9! 0 0 6f;?"O .ooo·o (I(I.(L"I) ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o !Ot-"L9 f.!O"L9 LE.9 119'31 ~l:::a9•:;.. s·;.E. as·~ -,,-,c, IS f•C, c . .:~-· .;:::~ .. 9L::: Q~9 f;£! • £9 80 0 "£•3 tt:-0"£9 C::L0"£9 :::::::o "t-9 Of:! "!9 o ::: e ":~:·;.. 2-tE. ":.::9 E. E.::: 0 t ·~ '31E, Cit.~ 022&2l '3-'3L •t·~ ~28 Q9£ o::::€:·as La:::: ·es · LE.O "£9 t:-2.L • t-:~ !!t-"1::'9 ::::::o a v·:;. SE.·3 ~~:~:9 E.E::=:: "~:·~ 9E·=== D2·~ -rs.t·es 1!9"29 '1::-E:t "2.9 6!0 "!9 f;t-8"09 9::::L • .L£ .Lt1·o·;, t9E. ·E.~ 2fiC ·E.~ 62E: Q9'3 1::-£::: • ! L 82£"1;-9 099 .09fi £! 0 ·::::f. 0:38 oaf; L28 ° t:fi ·-··=·} fl......,.,--=-·~·.:... -=·= f. I) t--• 8t-E:t-(l • 9t-----------------------------------------3J~3d3~~ra 3J~3d3~~ra 3S8J 3S8J 3S8a l~3J~3d ~~8dWI ··················~~·~· ~~3~.J..OldW3 l:iOl:13S :::rrs:l:la ~ ............ ~ ...... 3S:8J la::r::r 9 · ····~·····~·······~················ .... ·~ :S~OilJ3rO~d-lJ8dWI 3ai~3l8lS l3ITDW d~W : ... ·z·a 3l8'tfl 0 !02 6002 8002 L.002 ·;,o o 2 £002 t:-002 8002. 2.002 !002 0002 6E.E.! 866!· L66! 966! £66! 1::-66! .-•• • ... '7' ·:· r:· &=:• ~ 266! !66! 066! E.E:E. I 886 t' t-8E. t 2E:6! !86! 0 E:E.!
('
r-! • . .. · .. ·.··IMPACT PERCENT
BFtSE CASE CASE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ----------· ------------------------------r· ~
1'3:30 7'3 •. :312 79·. 812 0.000 1). 000 ' I·!
l. 1.'3:31 81.~14 :31.714 0.000 0.000
I , 1.-;.82 86.641 86.641 0.000 0.000
I 1·~:3:::: 90.(160 '30. 060 0.000 o.ooo
1984 91 •. 951 91.951 0 .. 000 0.000 l .~
1'5::35 !3:3·. 6.17~. '33. 7::::4 0.117 0.125
( l·;t:3E· -'37 •. 2'38 ·.:, 7 .., ·::, -=' ...-1-a ( ... I 0.499 0.513
'· 19E:7· 1 05'~ .. 326 105.969 0.643 0.610 \ \---1'3:=::3 114r964 115.791 0."827 0.719
f--'. 198'3 1!5.800 116.863 1. 063 . 0.918
I 1'390 113 .. 160 114.359 1..199 . 1 ~ 060
.... 1991 112 •. 063 113.680 1.€.17 1. 443
,.....-c• 1992 10'3.831 112.::::02 2.471 2.250
19'3:3 11 0 •. 354 114.440 4. (r:37 :3. 703
,_ 1994 111.365 115.927 4.562 4. 096
1'3'35 108.826. 11:3. !3(1:3 "4. -:,.:32 4. 57:3
(· 1'396 1 08. 1.99· 112.'309 4.710 4. 35:3
~..-..: t·:.'=l'"" ..... ( 107. 122 11 L 777 4.655 4.::::46
1'519:3 108.322 112.8:35 4.513 4.167
~-., 1'3'39 1. o·;.. 573 11::::. 9::::4 4-•. ~:tS 1 :3. '=-'8·0 r: i . 200(1 111.566 115 .. 618 4.052 3D E.32 "0 2001 111.332 115.152 "3.820 3. 4:31
r, 2 00·2 112. :371 116.47€. :3.604 :3. 193
[: 2003 114.367 117.890 •'j c-·:. -:a :3D 08 0
·-· 0 ·-· ~ ._,
::..~ 2004 116.078 119.567 3D 4:38 :3.005
...
2005 117 ._c::::e 121. 3!35 3 & 4';t7 2. '3€.7
I 2006 119.79:3 123.:316 :3.51:3 2 ·~·':·? I ... -·' l ; 2007 121 a 7'-:J( 12.5 .. :341 3o545 2. ·:Ho
2008 123 •. !3_81 127.455 3o574 ~ ·-··=·C' ._. ·~·-·--'
~"' 2009 125 .. 975 129.580 :3.605 2o :=:62
l, 2 01 (I 128 .. 183 . 1:31.820 :=:C1 637 2.:338 [ __ " v
:JUPC=: "'~8P MODEL 'SIMULATION:~ ~BASE::::~:N 8ND OC..S:. :;:::;:L--CREA.Tt;:"II 1 0,...11.-':::2
l-
L_;
B-7
'-~
.. ~.-.~---'-~·: .. _____ . __
TABLE 13.4.
r·1AP r·lODEL :S:TATEIJJII!E Ir1F'ACT F.·!:::O._!ECTIDHS: .....................................................................
1'~:3(1
1'?:31
1982
1•::S:3:3
1 '31:34
1l~:=:5
1 ·?~36
1 •.:&•:1? ..... J_:;
1 ·;:tt::3
1 ·;.:::·~
19'?0
1'?91
1 ·::,-~·=· -· •• !;;.
19'33
1'3'?4
1 '3'~5
1 q·~h
1 •-:&q-. ·-· -· (
1'3'3:3
1 '3'?'7
2000
2001
2002
200:3
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
2009
.2010
. 6 E:BBL CASE .................
(30'·/ERNMENT EMPLOYMENT ........................ ~
E:A:S:E CASE
~·=-c:'·=··~ I '-' e ·-1 •-• ..,..
::::3. 071
:::7 II 755
::::=: 0 :3 12
::::3 0 ::::?·~
::::3 0 15:3
:::7. 5:=:6
:=;6 ~ !36:3
:::7.:34:3
::~·::s. 758
'?0. 0:33
:=::3. :=:71
87.800
87.1'31
87.017
!:: E, e :=: :=; 4
·::. C" C' .-·~
·-· ·-' • ._1 -=--·
n~ ~~q o~.~c~
84.796
:::4u :=::35
:::4.771
E:4. :312
:=:4. E.~: 0
:::4 D 57:=:
:=:4. 527
84.506
84.502
84.512
84.534
:=:4a 5E.7
:=:4 Q 5!3'3
IMPACT
CA:S:E
7:=: 0 5:::·3
:::::::f) 071
:37' e 7' 55
~:!3., :312
::::::I) :37·~
::::3a 15€,
::::7. 6:34
:3E·= '3:37
·:::7 8 445
:=:·?. 9 (1:3
90. 28·7
:=:8 II 5~31
::!8a 155
:::7 D ::: 1):3
:3711 1394
:37 Cl :::0:3
:::E.e 51 E.
:36. 076
85.6:30
:=:5a E,:37
85.516
85.46:3
85.242
85.145
:::5er (1:3'3
·=·c; 1164 '-'•-D •
:::5D 05:3
85.068
85.091
85.124
85.147
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
0. 000
o. 00 0
0.000
o.ooo·
0.000
0. (I (1:3
0.04:3
0.074
0. f::·:=· ..
0.145
0.204
0. 210
0.355
0.612
0.'?77
0.924
0.947
0.847
0.835
0.802
0.745
0.657
O.E.12
0.572
0.562
0.557
0.556
0.556
0.557
0.557
0.558
0.000
0.000
0. 000
0. 000
0.000
0. 004
0.055
0.08.5
0. 116
0.162
·o. 226
0 0 2:3:3:
0.405
0.702
1. 12:3
1. 063
1 • 1 07
0. 9'?4
0. -~::::5
0.'345
0. :=:79
Ou774
0 G 72:3
0.676
0. E.65
0. E.6 0
0 o E-5:3
0 o E.5:3
0 • .::.5:3
0!1 E.5·~
0.660
(
,('
L,
r
~ "
f
{
I ,
r
c
.f~ ·,
I
.I
'l
\.
(
~r:
L
r
L
'r-t~
t ,)
'
:JURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N AND OCS.:33L--CREATED 10/11/82 l_
B-8
4 1 .
L
[ ..
_'
6-9 6:::::: . .., -=· 66t.-.9 89:S G"V82 €.'3!3 • J I-, ~'--=· (I !02. ·:~vt: ·~ l~t .9 :s:z.t·tsa· 99a .,....,-. .::a,.:_ c. f.OOe ;::.!r--:·. ':1 -.::r·-· ·-· 9!t.-"9 8~2-6.:!2 92.8 ·aLe 8002 €.~8 ·a 8L8 D9 £2L"9L2 LiP£: ·ot.2 L002 L9E: .-. ·::. vt-:::: • ·;. t.~:::: ·vL2 fiE. E. •.t·~2 900:: lLt: . .., ·=-L t-=-· ·-&9 00 t •-.J-, C·'-C· 88L ·s·:.-2 soo:: 2€.:::: . .., c E:O:~: e9 c.:::o "OL2 i;-2L • 8';t2 too:: .tar. . .., ·=· r.s:::. ·~ 0€.1 • :::·=..e '3E::.:: . r·:-,.2 €:0.0:: 26t::-. .., ·=· 9E:t--a9 02L • ·3·;.e s::::a ·o9c 2.002 E·9·=.. oe 91)€. e,;.. !'~9"fi92 S~L • r,,-.-, C•.:J•:· ! 00:: i;-·--·-· . .., 98:~ . L L.O 2 ~~ 9·;.2 1'28 e ,-,,-.~ 0002 .:::~•:• ·=· C•.=.•:. :::02 ~~c-·-· TE:t ·11,-, C• E·O '3 Q €:92 E:2t.-·ssz E.66! ::::o i;-• t: r-· -..::, .=~C·-· . ,-, -=· .:!80 ·a·32 29t::-... -.,-.-, •:...::~C· 866! J·.-·r· • C· • -•.. -r, a.-. ;s;=:.:. !!8S2 .::.'.80 ·os2 LE·E· t .-..:.;;::2.=::11 "-• ";"C••=· '=' E.9~ . ::: a so • E. ~s9 ·29-2 2.0 9 .. -.,-.-, C.·:2•=· 9E·6 t HE. . .-. Co 96~ . ,:. 8E:~ ·~92 tE.fi "fi£2 fiE.6 t L.::!.fi . .-. •:.. i;-L2 Q ,:;, ) -=··-..:...·-~ ·-e:·~e €:·::.2 D .• .-.-, '='-=·=· t.-6E. t ::: l.9 . ,-. c.-s:;::::~ ·E. '3Lf: CIL92 0 t.-(1 • E:f;2 €:E.6l 69! •::r ·-· OE.fi . ,-. .::. 8£:::::.892 8i;-L .• Lf;2 266! r.·-·':1 . ! G'32 • r--099 ·:~:92 .S68 ·o·::.2 !66! ,::1'-· 0:.-L8l ·o L90 ..... <::-t9fi"v92 1;-61;-ea92 066! 1;-0.L ·o 9!6 . t vOS"vL2 L8E:: ·aLe 686! 8Lt:-·o fi€.2 . T 9s-v·sLa !9! •tL2 e::=:t. 1 2!..::: ·o i;-fi6". 0 dL9 . L~2 8!L .9£;2 L:=:Et t ~E. C. ·o 2tL ·o ;~2e2i'2 8t.-S . li;-2 98E.t 2'3! ·o £,;!_:~ ·o -t-9t ·sc:2 t:=:L ·~:~:2 s:=:E:r 000 ·o 000 ·o (I I L ·rJa:::::: OTL . -,,-.-, C·C.·C· t-BE. t 000 ·o 000 ·o t.t.·3··1t:~a •SE.·~ . -r::::a 8:3€. t 000 ·o 000 ·o £.2J • ) '::' '::1 .._,_ .. _. 62! ·J~~ .-.C·•=· 2E:E. t 000 ·o 000 ·o S6T ·::::t2 S6_T SSt2 !86! 000 ·o 001) ·o E.r.t ·t-o 2 £,-f;:-f::' • t::-0 2 0::::61 -----------------------------------------3:•t-~3a3.:l.:J I a 3::,~.J3o3.:J.:J I a 3:S:I:l:r 3:S:8::r 35:1:1:3: lhl3::1::l3d l::•l:ldW I ····~···~······· .l~3W..t.OldW3 1tll0l ................ 3S:I:I:' 1aa:a: 9 • ................. ~·~··~+++·•·······~ :S~OilJ3rOdd lJ~dWI 3aiM3lbl2 13GOW d~W ·s·s 3l8'1J ,.J , ..... ·
__ ,,;:~ ·---
TABLE 8.6.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT P~OJECTIOHS: ...................... ~·····~········
.6 E:BBL CASE .............
REAL. PERSONAL INCOME ................... ~
E:A:S:E CASE
MILLIONS OF 1982 $
••••••••••••••••••
IMPACT
CASE
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
1980 6247.679 6247.679 0.000 0.000
1981 6551.144 6551.144 0.000 0.000
1982. 7081.304 7081.304 0.000 0.000
1983 7300.878 7300.878 0.000 0.000
1984 7339.421 7339.421 0.000 0.000
19!=!5 7480e527 ·7497.429 16'.:'302 (1.226
1986 7990.835 801~.527 26.69i 0.334
1987 9179.180 9216.210 3~.031 b.403
1'388 1046"2.730 1051:3.440 50.711 0.4:::5
1989 9922.060 10000.730 78.672 0.793
1990 8886.261 8966.402 80.141 0.902
1991 8779.230 8915.601 136.371 1.553
1992 8682.132 8921.277 239.145 2.754
1993 8769.375 9174.250 404.879 4.617
1994 8877.281 ~262.470 385.188 4.339
1995 8821.000 9247.100 426.102 4.831
1 ·;r·?6 -==:==:27. 14 0 ·;.211 ~ 5:=: 0 :3:::41J 4:3:3 4 0 :355
1997 8764.835 9149.880 385.039 4.393
1998 8945.421 9321.060 375.637 4.199
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
:: ::·_: :;. ': E:
9970.840
9261.790
9329.610
9462.750
·~s·3·3. :=:7 o
'3749. '330
·;..·;. (1:3 0 :~:r:. 0
10074.460
1024:3. 010
9427.190
9581.030
'?E.:~:2. 1 ·~ 0
9749.050
9884.700
10035.950
10197.450
10367.200
10544.750
10428.700 10729.610
10604.090 10909.320
10795.~60. 11105.090
356.:344
.319.246
~302. 574
2:=:,; ·=··-.., --aL..:;(
2:=:4 II :3::::2
2:=:611 023
289.090
292.738
296.746
300.918
305.227
309.633
:3D ~~2:=:
3o447
:3., 24~:
3e 02E•
.-. Q· .. -C.o •. J:.{
2. ·~:34
2. '318
2. '306
2 b :::·~6
2. ::::35
2. :::7:3
2 • :::E.:3
~·r;~· '·io:~=L .: It·1iJL~TICt·<: .::t.t=,·~:E::::;:r-f Hr·iit OC::~~. ~::3L--C·F·EPTEIJ
B-10
r-
L
/' 'L'
\.
{
\\
l
L
r
L
(
f\
'{
\
p
t
\
r
\·f ~
L
r~ '. ;"'
L
\.:
J-
\.
L
l •)....-ll· :·.:::6
c
r
I
,-)
(
L,,
I'
i
l_ .'
(~ ·,
l '
r·:
['
l __ ..
(--
' I
I
l
'-.o.~
r
l
\.
u~
n L-
c
[
~.
~-~/~
l i
r:
\ ..
L
I f->~
l_
'.· ____ ...._:.._.~-~·-·-·-· -~.:...:---· -·--·· ~ .... :: ....... · ...... ~~....::.:...-..:.~...::.....:.._..__ .. ___ _: ______ ::.:._.:::.. ~_.:..:.,_·:-. :::: "· .-.: ... --· --'---~~---..... _.: .. -_· ·-'-.... ,; ·. -~.. ··--~~··· .. ····-
TABLE 8.7.
··;o1F· '·1CDEL ·::TRTEI,J I DE I t·iPACT ·ppQ.JECT IOI'fS::
................................................. ~ '=' ...........
• 6 .EB:t:L CF! SE ..........................
REAL PER CAP fTA PERSONAL I NCO ME .............................. ~ ................... .
• 1 '31:32 $ ... ................
I~1PACT F'EF.:CENT
E:A:S:E CASE CASE DIFFERE-NCE DIFFERENCE ----------------------------------------
1 '3180 155:39-~ 26 155:::·3. 26 o. 00 0.00
19:31 1578'~.14 157:3'3.14 0. 00 0.00
1'3':=:2 1 E.:354 o 5:3 16::::54.5:3 0.00 o. 00
1'3':=::3 16497.91 164'37. '?1 o. 00 0.00
1984 16::::E.9. 1 0 1€.369.10 0. 0 0 0. 00
1 '?85 164:34.42 1E.458~ 33 23. '?1 0.15
i .:,.-. .-
.L -· '=·'=· 17105. 03 171::::6. 42 ~: 1-, :E: ·~ 0. 18
1'~87 1 :::7:=:·3·11 :32. 18:::27.96 :~::3. E.4~ 0.21
1'?:3:3 2 0424-. 05 20470.95 46. 9·0 0~~23
1.'3:39 19267. 1'1 t·~~!46~ 67 7'3". 56 0.41
1990 17464. 9{1 17547.67 !32e-77 q.47
19'?1 17165.08 17:;:16.'?2 151.84 0. 8:3
1 ·=4·~·=· -· -·!;;. 16'?0'?-.10 171:=:2. 57 27:."::~ 46 1.62
1'5'93 16927.52 17:3:37. '?:3 460.46 2.72
1'3''?4 16'~61. ~:1 17:36'~. 4:3 408'. 12 2.41
1'3''315 16837.07 172:=:·;:t. ==:2 452 .• 75 2. 6'3
1'3'36 167'~1-69 1718::::. 15 ·~·~·1 ..1.:::: .-. .-.. -.
._, .,.• .&. a I•...J c. •. .;t.j
1qq-:>
... -· I 1 E,E.6:3 •. ·;.o 17 05:3. 1:3 :;::::·3., 2:3 2. ~!4
t·:;.·;.:=: 1 E.:=: 04. :;:6 17tE,7. 71 ~:E.:3. :~:4 2 .. 16
1999 1.:,:375. 38 !720:3D20 :327 D :::2 1. '?4
20QO 17023.47 172'3:3. 64 270.17 1. s·~
2001 17046. 08 1 72·~ 1 ~ ·;t·? 245. ·:H 1.44
2(102 17144. 05 17:~:6:3. ·~c 21'3.:37 1. 2:3
2003 17245.21 17457.:31 212.60 1 .-.. -. . .::.-~
2004 17~:60. 33 175E.7. 74 207.41 1. 1'31
2005 174:34. 06 1 7E.:37. :39 203.:34 L 17
.= f)r)6 17615". 34 17815.9! 200.57 1.14
2007 17753.74 17951.23 197 .4'=" 1. 11
2008 1 7:3'38. 6'~ 18 o·:..2. ·:..7 194.28 1. 0'3
2009 1 :3 03:3. 7'3 18225.14 1'? 1. 36 1. 06
2010 1818'~. 23 18~:77. 25 188.03 1. 03
= :UPC~: M8F' t-:ODEL :: IMUL8T IONS ·:r:~S:E:=::;:r·-1 At·m C!CS. f:::;:L --C:F'EATED 1 o . .-··u.-·:::2
B-11
TABLE 8.8.
··;.;P r·1QDEL STATEI.t.l I-DE 1 t·1FACT· F'F:O~IECT IONS:
~~~.~~++ ... •·~··~···················~· ..
• 6 E::BBL CAS:E ..........................
BASIC :S:ECTDR REAL l.a.lFtt3E RATE ..................................... ~
1'31:32 $ ........
IMPACT PERCENT
E:A:S:E CA:S:E CA:S:E DIFFERENCE It I FFERENCE
1'?80
1 9!31
1982
27201.58. 27201.58
27253.51 27253a51
2:::5'36 V 71 2:35'~6 D 71
1 ·~:=::~: -2'3226 II 08 2'~226a Q:3
1984 28819.58 28819.58
1985 29281~75 29353.08
1986 32184.88 32206.96
1987 38377.82 38390.11
1988 4359~.7~ 43603.67
1989 39702.80 39777.32
1990 32580.52 32719.56
1991 32014.25 32351.81
1992 31852.62 32509.00
1993 32165.57 33276.49
1994 32375.26 33335.23
1995 32346.14 3i477.75
1996 32418.13 33446.27
1997 32598.90 33701.35
1998 32549.13 33605.89
1999 32587.14 33568.72
2000 32758.00 33580.02
2001 33125.32 33911.49
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
.2008
2009
2010
•j:3423u 47 ::::41 E.:=: II ::::3
33730.13 34491.3~
34047.55 34822.19
34376.77 35163.08
34713.44 35510.68
35057~91 35865.76
35409.80 36227.70
35688.05 36519.33
360E.9. 95 ::::6910.71
o. 00
0.00
o. 0 0
0.00
o. 0 0
71 'j•"j
I .L • ·~·-•
22:'09
12.:30
. -3~ '36·
74u52
139.04
.-•• - • ....., C" ,. ·~-~ •.• ·-·'='
Er56. :38
1110.'?2
·~c:-G G7 .... _1 ... so .... I
11:31.61
102:3.14
"1102.45
1056.76
·~:=: 1. 5:::
:322. 02
7:::~ .. 1 7
745.41
761.21
774.64
786.31
797.24
807.86
817.90
:=::;: 1 ~ 29
840.76
o. 00
0.00
0.00
o. 00
o.oo
OCJ24
0.07
0.03
Oa01
0.19
0.43
1.05
2. 06
3.45
~ Q"? ~-~·
3.50
::::. 17
·':• ·'"!·•;!! •...). ·-··c~
::::e 25
3. 01
2.51
2"::::7
.-. .-.oj c 0 .:..._.
2~ 26· .-. .-,.-. c. Ill c..·=·
2.,29
.-. .-n C.o•:!_
2o :30
2s :31
2. :~::3
2. ::::::::
·:·oL~ :;·:E: "~R::· ;,1::J"DEL : P~ULATIDtr:· SE:~r:·E::::;:n Ar·w OC:S:. :::::::L--CF:=:EATED
B-12
[
(·
J.
c
(
,(I
~
I .
r L"
('
\,-
(
} -
~ ...... ,
(~
\ .
T
1-' tc
L~
r ,I,
I ~=-~
t)
t
r
\
(
L
,.
1 0 ... ·· 1 1 ·' ::· 2 {
L ~""'
L
n-s Lt ·o 19 ° tt E.E: • t E:O ~~ 83 • 0 l:-0 S3 0 !02 Lt ·o t9. !t:-0 ~: "t-96t2 s·~ · aa.:.ta 6002 Lt ·o S9"tt 8:3. Lt:-E:t2 82"908t2 E:OOZ Lt ·o t-9"'tt:-e.:.·zt:L~2 "P8 • t69'i:-2 2,1)02 Lt ·o 09"tt LS"E:t9t2 96"9Lfot2 9002 Lt ·o tL. tt t8"t0Si.:-2 60 "89"1;-te S002 Lt ·o t>L. t t-E:8 • J E.St.-2 tt • o s::::t-3 t-002 E:l ·o t;:!. ::::t-9S "E.L2te e::: a 9:::2t-2 ::::002 :::t ·o s:::: ·at-SL.2Ll~2 2t"08tt2 200~ E:t ·o d.~ o::::~ ::::6 • ::::1::'0 t-2 fi£:"0001::-2 !002 i-t ·o t ·3 II 2::: LS. t60t2 LL "E:SO t-2 00"02 n ·o 9:::892 fit 4ZLE.:~2 E.2. 5~~E.f:2 €.€.6! 60 ·o o:::aoz 89 .. -'.:3::::~:2 £:8. 9-9€::::2 866t 0! ·o £:E. II :::2 f;6 ·• 0 t:L :::-2 ::::o •),-.Jr"·~ ..:.;.. ::s-::... ·:.. ·=· L66! so ·o t£: • T T L·;. • T T ) '"·:=> -=·t:· • ,-, ,-, J ·~· ., .-... -.. "'' "' . --·-··-· ,_..._. •.J•.J.~':.·C· ::.''=•'=• ~ 90 ·o as a::: I 6S •t.Cf;:~2 LO · 9tS82 fi€.6 t so • 0-08 ·o !-r·-:t .::JI..· . Li:'f::~:2 fi(l · e:ss;:::a t-6E.! tO • 0-60 • o· l-09 lt£:£;2:~:2 69-. 89Z£:2 ::::f.E, l 00 ·o -t-t·o I,-. ,.::., r:. •Lt-J82 E:f ... 9171 :;:: 2 266! so ·o E.8 ~ 2 t .-.,-. C..;:, 1168fi€:2 1::-t • J:=tr·c-"::1 ~~·..:::1'-·'-· t€.€.1 1::'0 ·o 9L ·o t 1::-L .896::::2 86 • 2sE.::::2 OE.6 t 20 ·o La·s 2t "222£2 S;!3 a 9-t2f;2 -E-8€.1 90 ·o -6L "ST lE: . I£.192 LO ·-98t9C 886! 60 ·o 08.82 Q•" ·_. t:• •t-! E:t-2 99. !E.Li:-2 L:::E.t 0! ·o t e.·:::~ 1 fi • so £:E::2 09" !82.82 ·~8E.! 10 ·o-sL·a-2L ·~·92.~ Lt"St:-922 S86! 00 ·o 00 ·o ,-. "::' .::JI..· ··9L t-22 ,-."::' ~·-.9Lt:-22 t.-86! 00 ·o 00 ·o t-9 • Sf;£:22 -;:.'~ C! bi~:~:22 ::::=:E. t 00 ·o 00 ·o 9£:·;::~122 98·8~t22 a:;:E. 1 00 ·o (II) ·o 9L G£9t22 9L ·s·~t22 !86! oo·o 00 ·o LE:"i:-2922 l!3. t:-2922 08E.! ----------------------------------------3:Jt.l3d3.::l.::l ItJ 3::11·..13d3.:t.:l r a 3:S:8::r 3S:8J 3:S:I::Ia l~BJ::I3d .L ::H:1 d ~·H .................. $ 286! •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 3.LBd 3~ti::Wr 183d -oDl::r3S S3:JI ,·\d3:S: "!> .............. .... 3:::8·:, I~:I:1 9 • ........................................... : :S:~·J01l::t3r·Odd l.)l::fdLoJ I 311 Iff~l!:tl:S: l3QOL·~ .:::f~i·· "6"8 318'17'1 ___________ ,.--.--~ -·-·-·-.------------.-----·· --· r 'j j --' I -t , I ··-\, t _,.;
vi-s '~ ~1 28/ti/Ot cr3183dJ--lS2"SJD a~~ ~223:bas ~~DI18lnwrs l3cro~ d~~ :3J6~G: \ ) '1 f ] ~-~ J. J ·'\ _---; ) - t } - \ J .· J J ' ~ 'J ·J 0 t. 0-or·o-or·o-E.O "0-E.O "0-eo ·o-8o·o-80. 0-:::o·o-:::o • 0-80 • (I = 80"0-80"0-L0"0--'.0"0-90. 0-90"0-i:-0 • 0-·20 ·o-ro ·o-to ·a-to ·o-ro ·o-oo·o-oo·o-oo·o-oo ·o oo·o oo·o oo·o oo·o 06 "1::-t:-88QC!S-66"0C::-9 I "E.2-9~Bl2-LOa9a-O 9 • £;2-r--;,•,-.-;,_ ~ ._. .=JI._• f;f;"fi:.?.-t-£:"1::-2-9E: ~~aess·Ta-60"E.t-TL"9t-09"!!-:::t·9-·92 ·€:-L9"2.-9E: 9 !-80 °!-Lt-,aj)-~2."0-oo·o oo ·o oo·o oo·o oo·o 6t~688L8 82."82tL8 01'02 88"68.!98 S8"9289S 6002 t-9"102.98 tS"982.98 8002 ~8"t29SS Sl~LS9fi8 L002 St"8SOSS tt"680SS 9002 lt"2.0St8 LS"t8St8 fi002 98"9S688 2.8"88688 1::-002 00"86828 09"8!628 2002 t8"8L82S 6S"86S2S 1002 t-1"898!8 20"t681'8 0002 SL"SLSIS 08"668!8 666t 21"!6808 9t"SI60S 8661 88 ·o t·to:~ t2 ·::::::::to:::: L6E. t !8"68662 1:>8"09662 966! 68"1Lt~2 86"06t62 S661 68"!8062 OI"8t062 t66t 6!"!0982 6.!"2.1'982 S66t g~"8Ll82 89"6.!!82 266! L9"09LL2 S6"£9LL2 l66l 86"9LSL2 20"6L8L2 066! 88"t08L2 OO"tOSL2 6861 68"02JL2 SL"22IL2 886! 8l"2L~92 92"£L~92 L86t !2 "tL6~·2 89 "i:>L6S2 98E. t 29"80~~2 98"80S~2 £86! tt"Bi:>l£2 tt"8i:>IS2 t86t 00"8t8t2 00"8!8~2 8861 OS"t£tt2 OS"tSt~2 286! 2£.£9982 2S"£9982 t86t 2:~: ·e.9tt:a as ·-t.%8'2 o:=:E.t --------------------------------~-------3:.,j...l3;;:i3::i:j r a 3:1r../-3o3.:l.:l r 11 lJ..J3::.o3d ............ ..................................................... . 3lt;o 3~1t11i., l!::f3o i:!Ol:J3S ..1..,3Wt.Jo3.".D£' ........................... 3S:I:() ll3::3::3: 9" ·ot~s :lla'tfl
··-;_· ----.~--~-~--; ~----~--·-·· ·-··-··-··-too·:::: 06fi"2 LSt-"2 J .......... -, ~C·:.. ~-t-02"2 890"2 E.~€. ·1 0:::::: ·• t T £:'3 " T ·t-s·~ • t 8L2. t ,POt • T 9lfi"O 0 T€:. 0 sr2·o 9LT"O 62l"O 2E·O. 0 .:!.90"0 ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o St-8 0!0"8£: 98t ·o::: 9Zt-"LL -62L "tl 9!1"2.:!. ~19"69 01t-"S9 2t-S"t.-9 9•:!~:~ llt-·:=t Ott"S9 !Lt--·:~9 tOL"€:9 20t-"8t-0 S2 "s:::: O~L. I2 eE.fi ·s 1 016"6 ) .-•• -Q .-. ~.:::.'=• 0 lt-0"9 ~SS"t ;:!66.:.:3 2"*'2 Itt ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 86E: ·~'"P82 .t:=:a. 0 E:E:2 tt:-2 •et£.2. B8t-"09E.2 826"0908 9tL ·oar:::: t-9·=.. ·s::::e:~: tL2 ,£a:~t: E.L'3 uoat.-::~ 9~'3 Cl LS'3:E:: LOL QE:9L8 E. 't 0 • E.~:8:~ 9fil ·.pt.:.:::: i::'28"00t-t 6S8"80TS i<'L0·€:9Lt i:-T6"E:St-~ 86fO"L6tt.-~~L •999;:: :;1;-0 "6G'~f l20 "OC::.Li::' tot ·ooe2 :?.t8 ·ot-8.~ -toOL "£8:32 11 €:. "t£.£.2. 80t-"8S0f Sfi2"0LTS asL ·o9e~: 8'tE: ·9f;::::s Ll! aa8t8 L62 "80L::: Lt-f; •fiLL::: SSO "I~:::~: 6-t:-E. " 'I 0::: f 8!.:!."98!1::' v86"St2t 2S9 "60'~t 20t-"660S 808. HILt a·tL "8SL t t26"SSt-i:> 1££:;9E.tt SSL"999S St-0 • E.£;9:~ L20 • 0 :::L to 0!02 6002 :::oo 2 L002 9002 S002 t:-0 0 2 8002 2002 !002 0002 6E.6t 86E.T L66t ·~66T S66 r t-E.6 r ::::€.6 I 26E.t !66! 0€.6 I 6:361 886! LE:E.t 9:=:e. r SSE.! t.-£:61 ooo·o ooo·o stL"2262 S1L"2262 0861 'l I I e··l . ' ----j 1 ..__j I I . I -' _ _, ---------- -------------------------------,.,_1 3J~3d3~~rcr 3J~3d3~~rcr J.f.J-3:)d3d 3SI::I::t .L~JYdW I ............................... $ 286! ~0 SNOI11IW ...................................... S:31lf.8t\3d l.f..l3iolj.,ld31'.05:t 3l.l::llS 11:13:::1 11::11.01. ...................... 3SI::IJ 1a::r::r 9 • ·tt·s 319\7'1 ·,. '-) l . ·•. ~-: :··~ "";
I -t . ) 91-8 2:::.-··i L;O l u31.b3d.)--lC::E: "S:JO lll-.ll::i 1-.1::::83:SJ.:L3:S ::~-.IGI.LtllrJWI S. l3U:O~-..i ad~ :3,)dr.G:S: . . . -) 902 ·o 0 E:l a,-. .:> 9:::::: • fit f;2 9f;! "0!f;2 0 !02 t J":! ·-·o E.t:Sa~ ~62"~2~2 SlE· ·:::lf;2 E.002 Lt2 ·o 9E:i::' D~ . E.Ot • 9f:f;a 82E . D0€:~2 8002 c . ..,-, •.soC·C· ·o ..t:=:·;. .£; 6~0 e...._.,,-.• -.-, C.:::..=•:. 29€: "91::'~2 L002 r:::z ·o E:aE. 0 .-. €:16 . !.!~2 SE:6 a£9£;2 9002 "" Ot2"0 I) 22· 013 ::: l L •9t.b::! f:6t • 0 E.£2 ~002 t·-·'::1 ·o C. J r· G9 062 . LC'32 i'IL ·oa·~2 1::'002 .:::.·-· -·~.::1 S'32 ·o t:::o . L E:'3'=.t "t:-·~·~2 t;-:;:9 a )1·•.::.~ £:002 ... .::. .... ..:. 2E:3 ·o (t :::9 . I t.J .-. "E.OL2 f:t-L . tOL2 2002 .::.. '-':.· or::: ·o "'t £:b; • ·=-·-· s:=:t-·:~:·~L2 ·~f;E. o~£LC !002 Ot-f ·o ~ .,-. -=·~.::J .. -1:· 02! 8 Lz:=:::. E:~f; OLtE:2 0002 :::::::::: ·o s:=:o . I t 6E.t "2062 tot! 0 te.:::a 6E.6t 6lt ·o -96t-"2! ·tt:::: 0-.. ...... -, ·=· '=• t:• ·=· 818 moe:E.c .::::E.E.l ~£;t-·o !80 •t! 0 £;:::: · 8E.o::: 6 tE: "t-E:O f LE.f.! ~:::t-·o ·9t~ • £; t E· ) '=" ·~·-· "-,C.-,,-. c .. _..c . ..:.. ;:?·-··-· -·C...C• 119t2:::: 9E.6! c.-=-··-· -· ._.,.= ·o 980 IIE:l 0 Vt-st.:=:::::s -p·-·-=· -=·-0 tL:::::; fi66! .Lt>~ ·o :~:~t.-. 6 t t~O Ill J J ,-.,-. '-"-~·:.. t=··-·•· -·-=·= D L£;£"; ::: t-E.E.! Ot-fi ·o LE.O "6 l 1::-,-. ~ Iii r-.,-. ~--c· .::1•-· C..-.::r.::r·-· LSI ·~E:f;:::~ ::::66! l r--.~ ·o 989-. l t :=::ac • i='2k;:~: 26S ·zts::: e.:.E.t •:.··=-· l02 ·o 8!0 . L L82 ·o of;:::; E:92 ·£:E.V£ tE.E.! ::::::::t ·o '3:~:·3 ·;, Lf"; :=: • 0:?. t:-::: I 22 "9L t-::: OE.E. t l2! ·o 002 "'!;-,:··-·c· -·.::.·-5 8f:t:r8 LSl o.:.zt::: E.8E. t 280 ·o .Lfi8 . ..., c ::::2.6 g£Ett.-:~ 990 . t6'i:'::: 88E.t I) 90 ·o 6"LO 0.., -=· -€.1 t: ·9:::t8 Ot2 "t-St:-::: LE:E. l \ - i } . ,/ £t-O ·o 2E.~-'1 82:::: • E: ·;t 1::-::: ·9:~€: 899~:::: 9:::E. l 82.0 ·o LLL ·o 68£;" I toto::: 21:3 "Ot-t:~: SE:E.! 000 ·o 000 ·o ::::::::::::. t>! tf ,-.,-.. ,-. • t> t to'::: :t>8E. t e, .. :,c. 000 ·o 000 ·o ~90 "80 t::: -;.91) ·::::or.:::: s:=:.:. t 000 ·o 000 ·o t .-.. -.a ""=> I fi9::: "I ("•I· ;:::, "" Qlfi9:~: ee:E. t 000 ·o 000 eo Lt8"0962 2.18 ·o9E.2 l8E.! 000 ·o 0 00 ·o 6!f; ·~ooz f, T S • SO 0 2. O:?.E.! ---------- ------------------------------3J~~3d3~~ I I] 3 ::r~3d3.:L::I I rJ 3:S:I.:lJ 3:5:8J 3:5:8:3: .L!-J3Jd3d .L:)I:Id~H ................................ $ a86l ~0 SI-JOilliW ...................................................... ~ .... S3dll.Liat.J3-d~<:3 .LJ..I-3Wj...j:::f3,·\0~r 3.H:IlS IB3d ll:llD.L .......................... 3S:!;:!:j 18::3::1 '3. ~···~~+•++++•~•·~•••••~••••••••a~+++ : S:~-m I l:J3r·o:::~d i:)8-:H·ii 3'1 I :•J::i.Lb 1·: T3~IC:~·.i .. :::>:-~·-' ·zl ·s 31S'tfl \ J
12'1) 12"0 aa·o 22·o £:2"0 t-2'0 ~a·o 92"0 :::c ao lf'O ;:.:::: • 0 8:::: ·o ar.·o ~r.·o Q~ .,-. ·-· ,.. ·-· ;:.~·o f;~·o ;:.~·o 02 ·o :::: l. (I 21"0 e:o·o 81 ·~ ..,,-. .,.-. C•:.· ..;:, €,9 afi 8EJ£1£ 22"9 E:£0·;. ~:0. L ~:·;. Q l E:fi (J ::: LS a E. L!-8 :.::o • 1 t o~·a1 €:0 •t:-1 ,-.• -. •r· T .:::1.::1 .::a ~ 60 • E: I f;t-• ,;. l 0 l "61 i:-'31_"11 20".!.. t·~ •t I) 2 ·;:. 'tt:-"92~2 ~o·a~~a lt .. ILS2 1.:!.. ·9t:.~z .;:!:;t • r. 9 ·;c 2 L:~: • t.O .LC E.P •t;9L2 2 T Cl L2!=~e 02"2062 e:::: ·2::::2::: f;2 . :::f;~::: s2 ·-paf;::: -62 ·oo~:::: 9:=: ·ost:::: 98 ·€::::t-::: 2€. ·E:E,t:-::: 91"0lfi2 86 "81fi·"? 26"08fi2 98"9tfi2 '51€ .• "PfiL2 Sf;. L 1~=:2 .-.,-. • r. T -, .-. c..·=· =-' lo ·=··:. . 6f; . 21 £;::: L2 ·:::t.t:~: 22 II ·~Lt:-::: 91 • 6.L ;:.:::: LO • 1 E.t:-f 0102 800 = 1..(1 (i:: 9oo:= fiOO:: too.: ::::o 0 ;: zoo:: I002 0002 66E.r ,..., ..... ,. .::' r:· '=' ~ £E.E. I t-661 ::::661 2E.E.1 1661 0661 68€.1 90"0 80"2 28"98i::'S t2"t8i::'f .!..861 ;:.o·o 6t-"l ES"89t8 t-8"99t-€ 9861 2o·o SL"O 6fi"1~t8 ra·otts £861 oo·o oo·o E8"t:-tt-s 88"ttt-8 t-861 oo·o oo·o 9o·sotr 9o·so;:.:::: 8861 oo ·o oo ·o f;£ • t~9:::: Sfi "tf;9::: 2:=:E.1 oo·o oo·o ~8"0962 28"0962 186t oo·o oo·o as·sooa as~£002 086t 3J~3d3~~ra 3J~3d3~~rcr 3S8J 3S8J 3S8a l~3Jd3d lJ8dWI .......... . . ~ .............................................. ~ .. ······ S3drl.lra~-3di<3 l~3W~d3/·,0£t 3l8lS: Blid8:r d3d 183::::~ 3 ~:· 8::1 ., g ~~ !3: ·;. • . ................ ~ ....... ~ ....................................... -~··· : :::;:~~0 I lJ3r·o.::d · l.:t•:t.~l-l I 3:1 I t'!3.H:ll:3-l3tJOL·· oi:o:·l . £l. 8 318\f l ) I I ) "-_J ! -', ( ~ ' lj '] ~-1 .. J
1980
1991
1982
198~-
1984
19S5
1986
1'~87
19:38
19S9
1990
1'?91
1 0~·::. .F .. • ...._
1993
1 ·~1'~4
1 C•~C":'
... ..J :..1·-'
1'?96
1'-:t-?7
1998
l 999
'2.000 z. 001
'2 002
zoo::::
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
···--C.c .. -: --~-----•:---' _,,.·-----·~ --..:--~-·~---<··:
TABLE B. 14.
MAP MObEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS: . ~ ...... -............... ~ ...................... ~ ..................... ~-o·Cb·· ......
• 6 BE:L CASE:.._
~ ............................. '"""'.
·REAL COMBINED FUNDS BALANCE ......................... ~ ......................
r·HLLIOt'iS OF 1,SS2.·Ss-· ------.
·--.............. ~ .•. 4; ............ _ •••. __
I !'1F'ACT PERCENT
BASE Cf!!SE CASE DIFFEPEiiCE DIFFEREHCE -----------------------------------------
2420.861 2420.861 0. 00 0 0.000
3475.185 3475.185 0. 00 0 0. 0 00
4E.87.6e3 4687.683 0. 00 (I 0. 000
5023.308 5023.308 0. 00 0 0. 000
5346.121 5346.121 0. 00 0 0.000
617'3.585 6174.67'? 1. 094 0. 01:?.
7'162.925 '7166.14B 3.223 0. 045
8322."921 832:3. ~25 6. 004 0.072
9287. 470 'i2'~7. 34 0 ·;.. E:?S o. 106
106 06. 4 7 0 10622.300 15. 836 (I. 14'31
114 05. 320 11426.140 2 0. 82 0 0. 1:33
11936.670 11'?66. 390 29.-?15 0. 24':i
12242. 040 12287.340 45.301 0.370
12435. 020 12505.720 7 0. f.95 0. ~E.·~
12411.750 12502.410 9 0. 6~.8 0.731
12:377 0 870 <4 .-. ·"' .-. t;;" ,""'\ ~-: .....
J. c ~ 77 ·-' • ..,. ·=· 1_1 118.102 0. 954-
12527.430 12683.550 156. 117 1. 246
12694.560 12889.700 195.145 1. 53?
12885.500 13119.510 234. 004 1. 816
13020. 160 13~92.020 271.859 2.088
1:3101.740 13406:. 2'~ 0 306.551 2.340
13092.980 13432.830 339.S52 2. 5'516
13039.120 13411.1'30 372.070 2.853
12936. 2'i 0 1:3340.740 404.449 3. 12:6
12756.2:20 131'33. 440 437.227 3. 42:3
12553.100 13023.6SO 470.582 3. 74'1
12"33.0. 200 12634. E.f.O 504.461 4. 0'~1
12 09 0. 41 0 1262'3. 32 0. 538.906 4.457
11 :=:36. 460 12410.330 573.879 4.848
11570. 050 12179.420 609.375 5.267
11293. 500. 11':138. 87 0 645.375 5.715
['
r'·
I .
'\~ ~-
r
~r-· c
L
r
t-~·
.A d ' \--
(',
I \;_.
:r•
\1 '
\,,
t
(.,
·t
r. l-,
{~'
r_
t
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N A~D OCS.83L--CREATED 10/ll/Si~
B-18
r t
-< =-~
TABLE 8.15.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS:
- • ~ ... "' .. •· ~ w ............... ~ .... -.. ·--~---·...,_...._......__..... _ _.....-.> ...
• 6 E: E: L C:A:S:E ............ ~-
R€-ftL PER CAPITA COI'fE: I riEII FUriDS; BALANC&;,
-~~~ ........................................................................ ~-
\_•
--- - . t 9 gz t :c-~. - -~ .. "---=--...........
H1F'ACT F'ERCENT
,~-BASE CASE CASE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ----------------------------------------
1980 6 021. 18 6021. 18 o. 0 0 0.00 l
,., 1 ·;;.s 1 8375.67 8375.67 o. 0 0 0. 0 0
1982 1 082E .. 41 1 o::::26. 41 o.oo 0. 0 0
1983-11351.2:5 11351.25 0. 0 (! 0. 0 0
'OC•4, J. .... t-1' ' 11 '?23. 44 11923.44 0. (I 0 0. 00
1985 13SE.3. 12 13554-. 64 -8.49 -0. 06
l. 1986 15332.82 1531€ .. 71 -:1:-E·. 11 -0. 11
1987 17 036. 60 1?015~ 31 -21.29 -q. 12
1988 18129.::::3 18103. 05 -26.79 -0.15
1999 2 05'96. 14 20549.13 ;_47.01 -0.23
,,
., i
··-r
1990 ?~A .. c::-o·-· -~-~l·-1 • vC. 22361.49 -54.33 -0.24
1991 E'3338.50 23242 .. 52 -95.97 -0.41
1992 2:3842.30 2:3665.69 -176.62 -0.74
19'3:3 24003.33 23702. 12 -3(1_1.20 -1.25 :)-
1 '3'34 23714.42 23445.14 -269.28 -1. 14
1 '395 23626.26 23364.44 -2€.1. ::::2 -1. 11
"',..., ..... ,. 2:3830.69 2365•j. 72 -170.96 -0.72 .1.:':170 ~'
1997 2414C.'. 4:3 24030.37 -112.06 -0.46
1 '3'?8 24205. 99-24163.77 -42.21 -o~ 17
199'3 24222.70 24255.96 ' 33.26 0. 14
,, 2000 E'4 081.45 24201.81 120.:36 0. 50
2001 23922.12 24115.03 1'?2.91 0.81
2002 23€.23.52 238:=:6. 54 263.02 1. 11 l_~
2003 23238.76 23561. 67 322.91 1 • 3'3
L_ 2004 22713.22 2:::: 0'?4. s·~ 3:?.1. 6E. 1. 6.8
l 2005 22150.92 22590.1:3 439~20 1. 98
2006 2155'3. 53 22 056.21 496.68 2.30 ,-: 2007 20945.5:3 21499.96 554.4-3 .-. ~C" c.., t•·.J
l: 2008 . 20314.83 20927.12 6!2o29 3. 01
2009 1 9f. ?f .. 53 20346.98 6 7 0. 45 3.41
r· i 2010 1 ·~1)28. 37 1 '7757. 03 728. E.7 3.83
<..--
SDURCE: t·1AP t10DEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N AND DCS.83L--cREATE!J 10/ll/82
[--' ~
r '-B-19
l
} ] ' j ···~ J j . ·.~ _j. 'j J Zt.-9"2 t:-E.£ "2 . OLf; 02 J-,.-. 0 "-1 ~C·:::J C· 01£"2 £:0 f; 0 2 22~D2 109 "2 2E,::: G 2. . f,~€. 112 a:=:.: ... 2 016"2 9L9"0 2Lt.-"O 6!£"0 oes·o at:::. ·o 22. t ·o OE:O • 0 ooo·o ooo ·o ooo ·o 000 • 0 ooo·o OZ-8 I);::-;. D fi! E:E.::: (I~ t t n ·st !Lfi"tt E.t:::•t-t t--60 Dr.! 0 2€ .• f 1 Lf2"t1 86E:"t! St-fi"£1 t.-SL "-£! 6L~::act~t 9t-fi"'tl ~St.-"f 00t"2 9.PE. ~ t fias·t t-0 :::.0 ooo·o ooo ·o-ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o f.:::t"60'~ 901:>"809 2'3'L D LE.~ l90 . 2E.~ L20"t8~ GtLW~Lf; £09"0.!£ ~,LE: Q~·3~ ·~s~ 0 t ·~f; i:o90 ·:~~£ t==:o ~~c:t~ E.E.t. tt£ OE:E. "Ot£ "--&...}a,:,,-.,. ~-Vb.... •-•.C.· .:a 90 E. ·t::::s £00"£2£ f:1E. "t-1£ L02"ll£ Lt-9"LtS 122 ·t rs .L£0"06t-L9f. &J L9t--Ot£"S~tOLS"Si::'t ::::~£; ·2r.t 9E:6. 2::: t-t-16"-t-tt L£0"20t 3J~3d3~~ra 3J~3d3~~ra 3S8J L~3Jd3d -lJ8dWI ...................... S:ll~JI:!SiiDHl ............................ WOilYlndDd lB!Dl E.O fi • :::E. fi 210"88£ tS9 ·2::::~ t €:2 aLL!;; E:O L m9·=.as 12':.-rrt•~f; €.'~9 °9~~ ~~~E. Cl t£~ E~18a~2~ f;f:'3 Q £;2~ ... .-. ,-. .. -. ...., ,-. J.a"C••:-~-·=·.:::2 -p~o·:=:ts E.fit-·::::t£ est· ns 2Sfi. E:E:t.-E:·~t ·.t·3~ -l-. J T .,-.,-.""-,... '-.. ::r.= ... OL8gt:t-r. :::: c: ~ tr 2 t:-l:' ·:;.::!E. It 2~: i::' t.-TE."t-tt-L~0"20t--.............. ' .. _ ........................... ... 3S8J IT31J3~~0J~a80~ lffffff 2"T 0 tO::. 6002 E:002. . L002 9002 £002 i;-0 0 2 f002 2002 !002 0002 6E·6 T 8E·E· t L661 -;?f.f, t f;f.f. 't tf.6l ff.6 t 2661 Tf.6 T 0661 t.::::E.l 8:=:E, t b86T :::86 T t E:6 t 086! .................................................... :s~~Il33ro~~ lJ8dWI 3aiM3L8lS 13aow d8W "9l"S 318'17'1
2'?E."t OL6't t-f.f,. t too·~ fi10'fi 9:~:0 fl f; E.LO II G 80 L. ::::1 860 = 11 fiLO • ! 2:::t • 1 :::;;. ::: • 0 oo::::·o E:f:t. 0 · ooo·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo ·o ooo·o 0£:2 ·:::-L !2 ·::::: 26l ·::::: JE:1'f '3!=! t a €: t-9:~:. ::· OfiL"t 2f.f,. t lLEr D t £: E:(l e fi LE.l .. ~ 2LS ;,~ 18::: .. t L~:'? ·o LfiE .• 0 0 T 9. 0 L!fi"O 6!2"0 .ooo·o OO(L"O ooo·o ooo·o 00 0. 0 ltE."L'?.t 919·_!·;.. !9£"99 -r.-:::2 .99 890 ··;..·~ f;.L€ .• ~·:;r 20::: D ·;.·~ l 1::: "t9 t'?6 "t•:if -LLO ··;.·;. Ot.L=99 . 262 "l9 £tO"fi'? L2E:. ::::fi · E:SL.·a~ f,l) r.. :::r. 8t0"'3t L60 • £·:if t2L. "t9 T T.t ·;;.-;.. E:€:0 ·~·:;t ~E.9 .. t:·~ E.s:::: • :::·;.. 61 T .• €:9 9E.8 ·c·3 t~:L ·2·~ Tt·~. 2'3 tE:t "2·:;. E.to "1'9 fit:::: ·o-;; ·;t:E::L • Lb ~;::::: 0 t.~ 1:::::: "6£ 1::::::·o9 9E.t "09 .::rr=o·3 t9E. 06~ 2~2 ·E.~ t-£:::. TL 82fi"t9 099"9£ £! 0 • :::::£ L2::::. €:£i t::~:L. 2fi 60t ·:::t E:tO • '3+' · 3:•+.~3a3.:l.:l r •1 3:)1-.13a3.:l.:l r 11 · H./3::•o3d 3:S:I:I::• l:•l:ld~·4I .................. S:Ilf-JI:IS:IIOHl ................................. li-.!3WADldW3 a01J3S JISI:Iff ......................................... 3SI:IJ !!31::•3~mo:~-crl:lm:J 1a::a::3: 2 • 1 0 T02 6002 8002 L002 9002 £002. t002 €:002 2002 !002 0002 E.66 1 E:6E.! · L6E. t 9£.E. t ~E.6 t t66T :;:6€. t C:f.f.! !66! Of.E.! £E:6! -t-E:E· T €:86 T "Z:?.E. T t:::6 T 086! ···~~······~·······~···········;··"·· :S~DI1J3rOd~ lJbdWI 3GIM3lblS l3aC~ cb~ "Ll "8 3l8'ifl ., i j ' J ] ] ··"\ -.. _..; I I .. __ j (1 ,. ' I
•
TABLE B. 18.
~~p ~ODEL :TRTEWIDE I~PACT P 0 0JECTIONS: .......................... ···~··········"' ....... ' .. ..
1'?:30
19:=:1
19:32
19:=::3
1984-
1'3!35
1986
1"5'!=:7
1'5'~::3
1'~8'51
1990
19'?1
1 ·:;·:; ·=· .,. .... L-
1'?'~:3
1'~'?4
1 '?95
1'31'?6
1997
1'~'?:3
1 ·~•?o~
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
200'31
2010
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
···············~·····~·····~
:SERVICES :S:ECTDR E-MPLQ'r'MEMT .................................................
THOUSAriD:~ ............................
It·1PACT PERCENT
BASE CASE CA:S:E DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ----------------------------------------
{'3a !=!12 {'3a!=:t2 0.000 o.ooo
:=:1. 714 :=:1. 714 0.000 o. 000
86.641 :::E .• E·41 0.000 0. 000
90. 060 9 o. 06 0 0.000 0. 000
91.951 91. '351 0.000 (1= (1(1(1
'3:3. 617 '33., 7:34 0 .-! 17 0.125
·~~ ·=••:SO _.(u~ ... ·'.J 97.848 o. 551 -0 .• 566
105o326 106.251 0.925 . (I D :37:3
114.964 11E .• 114 L.151 1.; 001
115.:300 117.240 1.440 1.244
11:3.160 114.472 .1.:313 1.1E.O
112.063 11:30 7E.2 1. 700 1. 517
10'3Ja:=::31 114.321 4 • .490 4. 08:3
110.:354 117. :.::5:3 7.000 6 0:343
111.:365 1 1 ::: . ::n E. 7.451 6.6'~1
1 o==:. :?.26 116.162 ? ~ :;::3E. 6.(41
1 o:::. 199 115.131 E . ., ·~::::2 6.407
1 07. 122 113.99:3 6 D :=:71 6.414
108.322 115.066 E. o 745 6u226
1 0'3. 573 116.0'317 6a524 5.954
111. 5E.6 117. E.?s 6.109 5e475
111. 3:32 116. '3'317 C' ....... C"
._t G '=• '=' ._1 5. o:::s
112.871 11:3.212: 5.341 4 -:>·:··:. o I ·-'&....
114.367 119D555 5 D 1:37 4.536
116.078 121 .. 21:3 5.140 4. 42:3
117.:::::::8 12::::. 1):37 5ol4'3 4·a :;:6:::
119.798 124.975 5a 178 4 ·-=··=·-=-0 ·-·~~.;;..
121.. 797 127.012 5.215 4 ·::.·=··=· • 1-'-'~
12:3.:::81 129.1:37 c:::' ·-·=-~
·-' & c ·-' f:i 4.243
125. ·~75 131.274 5,2'39 4.206
12:3. 18:3 13~3.528 5.345 4.170
r~
\,
r
t\ ·.
~ -,
' ~
L~
\,-
\, ;
L,
i
r
{'
l t .
~·
t~,
ti I ,
\.
L
,e
[
[;
r
L
r L.
t
-:::;1_:=:cE: ··1;;:, r·1CI!EL S:IMULATIDt'l:S :S:E:ASE:3:3N AND DCS. :33R--CPEATEI1 1 o...-11-.:'..:: J.
B-22
L:
re
L
Zt6"0 !t:-6"(1 tt-6"0 0 t-f .• 0 lt6"0 8t-E .• 0 !£;6"0 0 Lf .• 0 ! fO • ! 1)£;1"1 162·-r 0 f;t • 1 f;f;t"T f;f.r. • t 2Lf.. t 2t6.! 9E:t:-• ! f;ti;o • 0 f;t:-2"0 f(l :~:. 0 Ot2"0 L6 1-.0 90 t • 0. 9£0"0 i:-0 0 • 0 000.0 ooo ·o ooo ·o 000 • 0 ooo·o f:Z-8 f;t . .t·o £;£,L 11 0 fi6L"O i:-0:3"0 t 2:3.0 :::L::: II 0 fiLE. a 0 t-f.O • l 9L 1 "1 0 t:-2 • 1 E.L2 G t ~·~8 ~ t 069"1 9E·2. 1 t6f"(l 912"0 :~2.2. 0 912"0 2L1"0 2€.(1 • 0 . '6t-0 • 0 80&"0 ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o t.2:::: ·fi::: LO E: 0 £;::: LE.a .. f;:=; ::: 0 ::: 0 bi ::: T •":·C· •o-·•:• .. ·-··-· .::J•-· 20 f; "~:=: .1 0 ) •,-.,-, ~·-·~ .:::.•:• sao ... ~::: OLt "•;.::: L 0 L • :::::: ·-t L f, • E.::: St~·L::: 9~E. ~~9:=: s:~·=-' · L::: 9£; 1 • :3!:! . .-. ,-. J • ·' .-. .:::1.:::1.:... ~~· 20S"t:3 ·;.o.; • t-::: LCf. ·~::: t:Lf; ~~t::! .. '='::t IJ .-•• ;:. t··-··-· .::~·-· L t 0 II L::: tE. l "L:=: 0 0 f; • ,L:;:: 2.:30"06 .-.,-. ) II _I,-, .=.:a.:_ .:-C• 3CJ • ..I3d3~~ Ill 3:) • ..13d3~~ I l] HJ3Jd3d 3:S:l:IJ 1::1l:ldl.J I ............. S:O:Jo..ll:IS:nOHl .......................... ~ ... J.;t.f3W.J..Otd~.J3 1~3WI--~d3,·'·,09 ........................................................... 3S:t:IJ ll3J.J3~~o:]....,J1l:ID:::J l~::ra 2 ·1 0102 f,(ll) 2 E:002 L002 9002 £002 t002 8002 200 2 1002 0002 6661 8f.f, 1 L661 966! f;f,f, 1 i:-661 f6E.1 26€.1 16E. T 0661 £,:361 9:3E·1 £:361 28E. l 1f:E. T o::::61 ............. ~ .................................................................... . :S~D11J3rO~d lJ8dWI 3cri~318lS l3ITOW ~~W "6l"9 3l8'r/l •. J ' I _(_j
•
TABLE B.20.
.. ,~r:.· r·~:JDEL S:T8TEI.t.LI I•E I r·1:=·,:;c T ·p;:;::O._!EC T·I Or-E:
........................................... ~.'. '~.-... ·.-;.$;;.-;<$ .........
1. 2 E:BBL RDFtD-CDt"iNECTED CAS"E .........................................................
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT.
............. ~········· THOUSFttmS . .....................
IMPACT PERCENT
BASE CASE CASE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
1980 204.449 204.449 0.000 0.000
1981 213.195 213.195 0.000 0.000
1982 227.129 227.129 0.000 0.000
1983 231.699 231.699 0.000 0.000
19:=:4
1'?85
19:=:6
1'?:37
1·~::::3
1 QPQ ~~~
1990
1991
l QQ~ ~~~
1 ·?·?:3
1994
1995
1 'j·~f.
1 ·~·::.7 -· ... I
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2:32.710
2:34·. 7:=:4
241. 54:3
256.71!3
274.161
272o :387
262. 4'314
260.395
257. 74:3
258.040
25·?~~ 2E.:3
255e 5'?1
.-.~.-. .-.-.,-. k. . .;.t.~ 0 t:• IJC
250a (1:37
253.462
255u 42:3
25~3 fJ 821
258.755
260o 2::::5
2E·1 fJ ::::3E.
2E·3~~ 724
2E•5u 7!3:3
2€~7 II 9";t5 .
270.347
272e E:2E·
275a 2€,6
277. :36'?
2:32.710
2·~:5.164
242.362
~~n ~~~ ~~o.~~~
276.093
275.000
2E.4~717
263.642
26'?. 301
274.62:3
27:3.600
2E.·?o :~:?E.
~~~ ---coo.r~u
263.191
266a186
267.506
269.842
2E.:::p 759
·=·t=. i~ .... -C' '-_, .... '='·=-:-'
271.011
272.:3:3:3
274.901
277.14'3
2?·;0 549
282.082
2:::40 578
22-7.241
0.000
0.379
O...B19
1. 5:34·
1 ·=4·?':1
0 ... ·-•-.J
2.a613
2., 222.
~: 0 24·7
11.552
16 a.5:3:3
14 .. :3:37
1·::: D 7:::4
13.1;=:2,
1:=:.104
12.724
12. 07::::
11. 021
1 0. 0 04
·?.400
'?. 175
9.109
'?.11:3
·?. 154
9.202
9.256
'3a~!l2
~ ·-:•-,':1
.,.• D ....... ( \-.
0. 000
0.162
o~~~ :::::;:·3
0.597
:0.705
0.959
0. t:47
1. 247
4.4:32
6.428
5. 5::::o
C' ·-=··=:t·"j ·-'. •,.) -· ._,
5.200
5.240
5. 020
4. 72:3
4o 25!3
'3D :::•S6
~3.€.12
:3.504
3.454
3e431.
:3.416
3. 404
3a :39~!
·j. ·-=··:.·-=· -.J 0 ._.,_.._.
3a :373
r
('
L
r,~
~ .
f
~ ·,
L\
r l~
,[
r··
\
!
\
\~
c
r
f~
1.··. ·•
;I
{'
\_
r
t
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N AND DCS.83R--CREATED 10/11/82 . f
L;
B-24 L
£0 ! . t-!2!"t> 2:~:! •t-2.t1"t 291"t o:::1 ·t £02"t 2.91"9 61£"9 t:::t. 9 £:£;0 • :=: 92€ .. ~ .:!1£"1 L2E. ·o £LO "1 Lf.9. 0 £6:~:. 0 9cc·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo ··o SZ-8 E.21 . :=:tt 020"2.ft €:t::=:. 0 ~:t.:!lE, ·t-at-' 0 2:~: "f, 1t i>f:1"t1t £·~;:. ·E.Oi::' £;0~:·:=:017 LLl"'t H· O!t"2Et 90t"fiLt 910"£2.£ fiO ·~. ~l~ E:t:a • 90.! t.:~~·r.t~ 112."901 0 2€ ".LL f;f;f.. 1f 20f."91 ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 0 OJ}. 0 ooo·o 06£"88211 09t"£6L01 0102 0!1"1tOn OE.O"t-'0901 6002 Ol£"6£80! OOL"82t-01 8002 086"22.90! 0!0."8t201 2.002 08L"f6t0! 09t"tL001 9002 Ot£"22€0! 09€"8066 £002 068"6£101 OE6"6tL6 t002 081"80001 0.:!8"66£6 f002 Of£"tL86 O£L:29t6 2002 020"292.6 019"62€6 1002 061"LEL6 062."1926 0002 08£"1>6£6 Ot8"0l06 6661 0£0"L6t-6 12t"£t68 8661 021"2886 £28"t9L8 L661 060"0686 Ot1"L288 9661 020"9686 000"1288 £661 068"2£t6 182"LL88 t661 019"SLt6 £LE"69L8 866! Ol9"9616 281"2898 2661 988"21£8 082"6LL8 1661 989"8968 192"9888 0661 OLL"82001 090"2266 6861 oso·ot£01 OSL"29t01 886! 081"8t26 08!"£L!6 L86t 068"2208 £88"0662. 986! 62t"L6tL L2£"08tL £861 I2-t"62EL I2t"6t:SL ·-t.-861 8L8"008L 8L8;008L S8f.t ~OE"180L ~OE"180L 2861 vt 1 "T££;;9 tt 1 "1££9 I 8f.1 3]t-13o3:l.::l r a 3:tl·-1303:l.::l r 11 HB:rd3d ..................... $ 2.B6T .::10 S:~.JOTTTIJ.J ............................... , ...... 3~0:H..! I IHhlDS:!:i:3.d 11::13!::L ................ ; ......................... .... .. . .. .. . . . .. . . . .. . .. .. . . . ... . . . . . . . . ................................... -... : :::;~ ~J 01.l..J3f'D1:b:i:-J.'.:CY:o::H·l T .:iii.J:J•'!::ELB:r -~: :.:rrrm~, J!:' .... ,-,, j cl - 1 J--, r I - !
""""' .~ ._"
_, ___ ,._
[
f
~-
--~ I
TABLE B.22.
r ··1-=ii=' r·lODEL STATEI .• (II!E IMPA-CT PF:O._!ECTIOt-G: .... ~ ........................... ~~··
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
f; \_
............................
REAL. PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME
19:32 ~f: f
... • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
................
H1PACT PERCEtiT 'l
BASE CASE CAS:E DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE r·
L
--------------------· --~-----------------
1980 1553'3., 26 1553'~. 26 1). 00. 0.00
1'3181 157:39.14 1578'3.14 0.00 0.00
1 ',?:=:2 16:354. 5:3 1 E.:354 o 5:3 0. 0 (I 0.00 (
\
1
l---·
19:33 164'?7.91 1 ,:,4•;s7. '31 0. PO 0.00
1984 16:.369. 1 0 16:36'~.10 o.oo 0.00
~~
I t'
1'?85 164:34.42 16458.33 23-c 91 0.15
1'?:::6 17105. 03 1714:3. 06 :38. 02. 0.22
t·3:37 1 :378S1 • 32 18:361D32 72.00 0.:38
19:=::3 20424.05 20497.13 73e o·3 0 8 ~:E.
L 1'~;:::·:; 19267.11 1'3:37:3 B 75 1 06.64 0.55
1990 17464. '30 17544.04 7'3. 14 0.45
1991 171E.5. 0:3 17~:0:3.35 14~:~~27 0. :=:3 r\
L
1 q·::;·::. 16'?09.10 17517. ~:1 6 08·. 2 0 :3.60 -· -· ._
t 1 ·;.·;.:3 16'?27e52 17714.52 7:37.00 4. E.5
19'?4 16'361. 31 . 1 7~A~ 1 C: C::·~--i .~_... .-, .<41:."'
.. I "c.0 ..,,_, II J.. ._r ·-•'..;t"-rc •;;;;•...,.. ·=• II '"1"·-f
'[ 1'395 1 f.:3:37 0 07 1742:3.50 5:::6.43 :;: . 4~::
1'~'36 167'31.69· 17357.55 565~86 '3. :37
1997 16668.90 1-="~--=··':r ·=·-, 564"•:.;7 ~:::. ::::·~ ( L..·-•·J. ·-· (
L 1•:,•::. !=-1 E·804. 36 17327. ::::o 523o44 3.11 o' ••.·..,1
1 •=4•::.•::; 1 6:375. :3~3 17:347 8 •35 472u57 28:30 ..........
2000 1702:3.47 17420.27 .3'36. :3 0 2. :~:3
2001 17046. 08 17:3:::3. 9:?. :~::37 e :34 1" '3:3 r 'L
2002 17144. 05 17450.00 :305. ':35 1 e 7:3
200:3 17245.21 1753'3., 58 2'?4. :38 1. 71
2004 17:=:60. 33 17647. 4~: 287.10 1. 65 r L
2005 17484. 06 17766.03 28lc'~7 1. 61
2006 17615.34 178'~2. 68 277 a :34 1 D 57
2007 17753v74 1:3026.64 272o9-1 1.54
t 2008 1 7:3'38 D E.'3 18167.05 268o36 1. 50
2 00'3 1 E: 033-e 79 1:3297. ·;.·?-264.20 1.47
2010 1818'~. 23 18448.44 25'?. 22 1. 43
r-
souRcE= MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N AND OCS.83R--CREATED 10/ll/82 L
B-26 L
I ,
-,
c)
/'
,->-· •.
l.~
~.
l/
r.
I 1
L_.i
1...--~
L
r.
l...F ~
TABLE B.23.
~AP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT-PROJECTIONS: ...... ~···············~················ 1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
~·~···· .. ····•·············· BAS I C SECTOR REAL l .•. lAt::iE RATE .....................................
1·:;.:32 $
·~·· ".
HlPACT PERCENT"
BASE CASE CASE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
1':;.8 0
1'381
1'?C:2
19:3:3
19:34
1985
19:36
1':;.87
1'?8:3
19==:9
1'3'?0
1'?'31
27201.58
27253.51
28596.71
2'322E·. 0:3
2:=::=: 1-=--=·~ --·a ·-'•=•
2'~2:31. 75
::::21:=:4. :=::3
~o~~~· ~~ ~u~fioOC
4359~.71
~:·=.a?o2. :=:o
:325:30 .. 52
32014.25
27201.58
2725:31151
2:35'36. 71
29226.08
. ~qo1Q ~~~v ~-~~
2'3-:~:53. 08
:J222:3. :34
38447.76
43625. E·l
39807.37
32694.79
:::::2:317. 0 0
1992 31852.62 33321.14
1 ·~·3:3 :321 E.5. 57 :::::3'31'3. 5:3
1994 32375.26 33600.41
1995 32346.14 3j?31.40
1996 32418;13 33890.55
1997 32598.90 34175.64
1 ·~ .. ~:3
1999
2000
·2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
:3254'3-g 1:3
32587.14
32758.00
33125.32
33423.47
:337:3(1. 13
34047.55
::::4:376. 77
34713.44
35051.91
35409.80
35688.05
36069.95
34029.69
33964.40
:~:3·~::::7 0 73
:34166. 1 ·:;.
::::44:3:3 a 25·
::::47€.2. 19
35097.82
35443.08
:357'34. 92
36153.64
36519.04
:3E.:=:15. 74
37210.5:3
0. 0 0
OG 00
o. 0 0
0. (I 0
0. 0 0
71.3:::
3:3"". 46-
e.9. ·;..s
25.90
·1 04. 5"7
114. 27
302.75
1468.52
1754.02
1225.14
13:35:26
1472.42
1576.75
t4:::o. 56
1~!77 a 26
11 (•311 7:3
1040.88
1009.77
1032.05
1050.27
1066.32
1081.48
1095.74
1109.25
112?.t.·;.
1140.58
0.00
0.00·
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.12
0~18
0.06
0.26
0.35
0.95
4.61
5.45
·:::., 78
.• ·;j ·::.
'""!"= ~·-·
4.54
4.84
4.55
4 .-.. -.
a c...,:.
."3. 60
3.14
:~!a 02
2:. 06
:3. o:3
.3. 10
:3. 12
3e 1:3
:~:. 13
3.16
~:. 16
"~~--:.:.;.._:;, ...... ~ . ..:~. ·=<•~·..:0.:-.:.::.:_'~,;,;,,.:
SOURCE: r1AP t'10I1EL S; I MULATIOtf::; :SBA:S:E:3::::N ANit OCS. :33R--CREATED 1 Cv 11 -· ::2
B-27
•
TABLE 8.24.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS:
.......................................... t t • ' • • .. • • • • • .......... t
1 D 2 E:BBL ROA.D-CONNECTED C:AS:E .............................. ~
SERVICES SECTOR. REAL l.o.IAt:;E RATE .................................
1'3':32 $ ..............
Ir1PACT PERCENT
BASE CASE CA:~E DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ----------------------------------------
1980 22624., !37 22€.24~~.87 o. 0 0 0.00
1·~:=: 1 22465 a ?E, 22465a76 0. 0 0 0.00
1 ·:,·=· ·=· .L o• '-'L... 22158·0 :3E. 2215:3a :36 o. 0 0 0.00
19:=::3 22355. E.4 22:;:55. 64 0.00 0.00
1 '3:34 2247.6.25 22476.25 0.0(1 0.0(1
1 ·;.:35 22645e47 22€.42. 72 -a. 75 -0. 1}1
1986 2~:2:31. 60 23:306~ E.9-2.5.10 0. 1.1
1'~!37 24791~66 24817.43 -:;.e -;;~
1-.•.,..le ( i 0.1(1
1•?:=:::3 26136.07 26145.14 -9. 07 0.03
1'?:=:9 25216a :=:5 25218o55 L70 0. 01
1990 2~:'?52 D· ~~:3 2:3958.66 5.68 0.02
19'31 2:~:527 e 14 2::::545. '?2 1:3~7'3 0.08
1-::,q·:· ..... ·L-2:3146. '=-'3 2:3129 II '77 ·-1~. 96 -0.07
1·~·~·-=· ...... ·-· 2::::263. •S'3 2:3206e 5!3 -57.11 -0.25
19'?4 2:~:::::58. 05 2:335'~0 27 1 ·:·-::. • L.l... 0. 01
i995 ---~---2:3564.41 48.34 0.21 c:::.:::•l6.1J("
1996 237 0 0. :~::3 2:~:7:~5 a !32 ::::5.49 0.15
!·~·~'"" .... ( 2~:757. (1:3 2:37'77. 21 40. 1:3 o. 17
1·~·;..::: 2:~::3€.6. :33 2:3'?08.57 41.74 0.17
1'~99 23'345. 2'~ 2.3•3•5Jt£;o 48 51.20 0.,21
2000 24058.77 24117.40 5E:. E.3 0.24
2001 24000.:35 24076a49 7E .• 14 0 .. :;:2
2002 24130.42 24207.63 77.,21 0.32
2003 242:3€ .• :32. 24:312.41 7E . ., o·:;. Oo:=:l
2004 24::::50.14 24424.68 74a54 0.:31
2005 2446:3. 09· 24537.42 74.3:3 o. :30
2Ci06 24576. 9€-24E.SL 18 74a22 0.:30
2007 24691.34 · 24-765e 59· 74~25 0.3(1
2008 24806.23 24:380.48 74g 2S o. 30
2009 24'?22. 65 24'?'?6. 91 74e26 o. :30
2010 25040.28 25114.46 74.18 0. 30
•·• -._.. c_· _ :..'~ -~ ~~~~::.,;.;.::;;;:;_::;·i~:::;_·,.-;_ r
[
r-·
L~
r~
\,
f
r
r
\ .
r
l
t "=c;
I'
··I \-
L
f'
[
t
c
r L.
t
·:::·rnn: .. -·E· M.::&C Mnn!=L ·-::·rMIILH-TIO""J":::" ·::''RA"""E•=··-=·N H-ND o.----:;; ·=··-=·R-~·-·REH-TE'MI 11.1-~'J. 1 .··=·:1 ._ ........ _. '-·. 0"'11 ·.--·-0 ~ •-11•-• ._;._ao•.:: ._ •• _, ·-··-•D 1..}·-I"o -"~-·· 41 ,..•• ••.,.1~
L,
B-28 r·
---;
r .. ·~
I
~~
r·'
'·
I }
,.,
l
I
!
I
\ ..
,-
L ..
~-·
c-~-1 I .
L
[7
t_:.
t}
l -•
I ' -~-..
I'
L~
--~-·-'-L:.·:··~,.,~--..,_""--'!"·-'-·;..,.=..,~.._~-~·::o-~~':'-.::... .... ..-_:_-".:·~~~~:-::.:~,..:....i2~-~'.~.;,.~~~~
TABLE 8.25.
"·is;· '·1QDEL STFtTEI.H-DE Ir'1PACT. PF.:O.JECTIDr·E:
······~•••-+•·············~··•+++•+
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE ...................................
GO'·/ERNMENT SECTOR RE-AL. b.IAGE. RATE ......... ~························ 1982 $ ...............
It1PFtCT
BA:S:E CA:SE CA:S:E
PE~:CENT
DIFFEF:£1'iCE DIFFER£1'iCE
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1 QQ~ ~~~
1986
1987
1988
1'3E:·3
1'390
1 !~91
1 q·~·=· -· -· .._
t·~·:;.:;:
1994
1995
1996
1 QQ7 ~~·
1998
1999
2000
2001
23469.32
23665.52
24451.50
24!31:3. 00
25148.11
255 0!3. :=:6-
25S•74. 6:3
26573.26
27122.75
27:=:04. 00
27:379. 02
27763.93
28179.68
2=3612. 7'~
29048.10
29490.98
29'?6 (I. :::4
3 043:3.24
30915.46
31399.30
31:394. 02
:~:2:3S'=3 D 5'3
23469.32
2~665.52
24451.50
24:::13. 00
2514!3. 1!
2550:3.62
25'374. 1 0
26571.19
27120.33
27300.50
27376.7(1
27760.57
28169.41
28590.93
29020.47
29463.28
29930.96
30400.5:3
:~:(1:37'3. 71
:::: 1 :;:61 D :::2
31:355.95
:32:361. ~::3
2002 3291&.60 32881.92
2003 33446.18 334D8.75
2004 :3~:'383.:32 33944~40
2005 34531.57 34489.80
2006 35089.44 . ~:5045. 08
2007 35657.73 35610.67
2008 36236.54 36186.65
2009 36826.35 36773.46
2010 37428.28 37372.41
0. 0 (I
Ct.. ·0 0
0.00
0. 0 0
0. 0 0
-0.25
-0. 58
-2.07
·-2., 4~3
-:3.51 .-. -.~ -c e .;..c.
-3.36
-10.27
-21.86
-27 D 64
-27.70
-2·3. ;=:8
-·":··:. ... C"
·..JL.;... f:.·.J
-::::5. 75"
-~:::7., 47
-:::::::D 07
-<::7 a 27
-:36CJ E.:3
-~:7. 44
-<:;·~. 42
-41.77
-44.36
-4 7. 05
-49.:39
-52.:39
-55.:37
B-29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.00
-0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.04
-0.08
-0.10
-0.09
-0.10
-0.11
-0.12
-0.12
-0.12
-0.12
-0.11
-0.11
:...o. 12
-0. 12
-0.13
-0.13
-0. 14
-0. 14
-0.15
:J~=c~: ~SF ~QDEL SIMULATIONS ?BASES3N 8ND OC2.83R--CPEATED l0/ll-S2
] : 1 J ) \ J ~j J ] t.-68 • ·;. £.89· 8 9 8Lt.-"9 1'~2 9 ·;. E:£.:0 8 ·~ 1t8"£ ~E:S.; 0 60 • f; 'PfiE."i::' fi't':=:·t-f;'3'+ "t s·~2.. t-fi.LO • t-82-~ 08 2f:'::: ~ ::: 2t6"0 LZE:"O ~£e·o »a ·o 2f.t • 0 9:~1' ·o fiLO • 0 · oso·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo ·o 0£-8 2L~"061' L2.0"t-8! 2L9"08! ~2"LL! SC8a£lt sos·oLt 2L9.L9't ~l€· (J fi9 t 2.:!.'2 B 99 t ll9 Q l'~l 2::::£ a &~:;.1 e:::::o • -r ·~! E:!6"9Sl ::: n · t-::: r 980""2£:! t29 °;~9 LOL"6f t?t-:E:"t>t t?fL. 1' 1 22t-"2! 6f:O "6 f;9i;o. ·~ 'FV:~: a 8 2.i?2"t ooe.·o ooo·o ooo·o 198"8£62 0 !02 66S"L862 !OJ"0082 6002 fii?8"t208 818"0t82 8002 9L8"990f i?OL"fi882 ~002 926"2tlf 699"S£62 ~002 L£1"S9t8 tts·t662 ;ooa €16"8228 80t"8S08 t;-002 926"L888 8S2"0Lt8 8002 LOL"92t8 28L"0928 2002 S8S"22SS 81S"9SSS !002 ~fi8"6t.-98 LL1'"28i?S 0002 996"8SL8 fi8t-"t6S8 666! 9S9"898S L62"€0l£ 866! fi8fi"9868 Lt-fi"fillf L66t S96"LOOt-sso·rses 966t L90"9868 6t6"!D8S fi661 8L8"880t-l8L"t~68 t66! 688"0021? 8IL"98tt 8661 169"S~2i? t86"fit2t 2661 OLfi"tOt?t 922"L8St 166! 988"1391;-2fi9"609t 0661 ~28"tttfi 20t"660fi 686! Lt-8"0!Lt 808"t0Lt-886I 881"fi9Lt 8tL"8SL~ l86t S92"6fitt t2.6"SStt 986! 86fi"L6tt-tS8"96It S86t Gfil"9998 £fil"9998 t?8E.! s~o·~~98 ~~o·6s9E £86t L20"0SLt L20"0€Lt 286t ooo·o ooo·o 8Lt"868S BLt"£688 t86t ooo·o ooo·o stL"2262 stL"2262 0861 3J~~3d3.:L:l I cr 3:)J...l3o3.=1.=1 I cr 3S:I:::I:] 3:S:I:::I :} 3S:I.::l:3: l~3Jd3d lJI.::ldWI .............. ~··· $ 2861 .=10 SJ...lOilliW S31!J...l3r.3o l~3WI-Jd3t\O~) 3ltllS l1::13o 11::1101 ................................................. 3S:I::IJ a3lJ3~,J•.JoJ-crt~o:::1 1aaa 2 • t ·······~·~·~~;;ttt+•ry;+;~ .......... . : S:t.JO I lJ..3r·o;;:,.:::; 1::1l::ldl·i I 3:1 I fii3ll::il:: i3r1 Ot·i .::~L·: '• ·gz·8 3l8'tfl
:=::o ::: ·o 0 JC· ·-· ·o E.H:: ·o E.C£: ·o t£-8 ...... ,-. • I '=''=·= ~ ~!:=: .L E:90 • :=: ,-1 J .-. Ill ,-, C•a:_•:.. C• f;~L . .Ll~2 E~8L ··32~2 I f. E .• C:€:!;2 ~l6 ·E:!ftC :::2.,:. • 0 ::::~2 2·~s ·9v~2 't r.:::: • 0 E:i:'L a C• ,_, ~:SL ·-;..tf;2 0 69 "f.E.£;2 E:f;t--"OS92 8LO ·:::·~92 0 !0 2 6002 8002 L002 9002 £;002 t-002 E:002 2002 !002 0002 E.66 r f;r-·C'· -=·-· ·o 2L:::: ·o 8E.:::: ·o !2t-·o 29t-·o 9!~ ·o ,-, .. -. ~~~.:::. ·o 2£:'3 ·o c.·=··~ _.._._. ·o ) ..., ) '-C·t:-·o ,J ·=· .r ~·..;.•.:.. ·o Lt-B ·o :?.t--6 ·o ·-·c.·~ -= -· -· ·o 0 !'=' ·-· ·o 2~! ·o L9! ·o 22! ·o E:60 ·o 6t--O . o· sao ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ~o 000 ·o 000 ·o LE·T . E. vi:'L . 6 ·~tot-. 0 ! ~ f ,-•• C-~C.-! ! ,-. '::r ·' .::~•--.:.... •2t .La~·r.r f;1L "9! 6t.-E:. E:! E:'311 . !2 E.L:~. £:2 2~:£"; • ·:;.e 8E:t . 0 ::: E.!~.:::::::: 2t-E: ·::::a a-r.:~ · L 1;-.-. '=' • ,-. C••-· .:J OOE:"£; 9fi2"i:' J ,-.-,. c-.;.....:..C· ._ . o::!.OL . ! LLL ·o 0 I}Ef ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o t:::·~ tl l9L2 ~LO • ;:!:::::=:2 €.2::: a LO E.2 L9"t •t.t.E.2 .::!.86. f;(l 1:::: !T2"0i::-2f t 2-L. L8f;:=:: .Cf ... c,.) q,-.. -. .-.--· ........ .:::.C· i:'S6"fiffif ! !9 "(10£;:~ fiO ~.! E:t-:::: L6t--"LE:t--E: 8~£;"891::-E: 6 E: £; " T t;-t--f ss:=: • t;-r v:::: t ~s · t fi9:::: L l E: ·o 9€·2 E. r fi • fiO o 2 S6t"06fi2 ~!L"Oc92 :::tL. !0 L2 E:tf;"L!82 tt1"1E.S2 8!£: "OE:62 E. 1 :?. • t--80 :::: a::::=: • 9 t 2:::: "Vf; ::: • t L €: ::~ 8:=:f; • Lf;~ ::: l~ T • -t;-t:f; E: !22 .9Lt.-E: .::!.~! .6Lt:-::: 990"!6tE o-t-2 .·te~s f:Sf; ·~tt:-:~: 't:-'3' 0 • ::::o -;:.:::: 'tfif;. Jf;•:;:::: L t :=: • 0 '3El2 6!£;"£;002 t;-66! €:6E·! 26E.! !66! I) f,6! £;86! ~86! t::86l 286! !86I 08E.! :3:t!--1:3d3-.:f.::l I cr 3:tt...l3d3.::1.::1 I a HB:Id3d 3S:I:I:J l ::tl:i d ~.J I •••••••••••••••••• S 286! .:::10 S~OI,IIW .................................................. S.3dllli at.J3d::.::3 ~l-t31·H.Jd3t'.,O::t 3.ll:ll:S: IH3d IHlDl. ............................ 3SI:I:J JI3 .. L:i3J..IJ..JO:t-tii:IOd lffff::f 2 "! ............................. ~ ................... . :S:I-JOil:J-3r·odd .LJB-dWI 3ll!f'13l.l:ll:S: l31mL<I dH-1.·1 'l - J I - J 'l ! ,-! J • .. -~ :._, I I 1--•• J ,_1 ~-·
•
:-L; ~-_,._:~:_:_~_-'":._.,;:;::..s:,:~;;;!.::_--,_·:..:...:__::; .... -,:..•.:j., __ ~:_:.-.:.,..-.:_&":._'~~;~·-~r:.i~.:U.-6_~,.:!i~~~-,_-.•,;. ~·
TABLE 8.28.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT. PRO~ECTIONS: ................................................... ·~··~-.................
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE .....................................
REAL PER CAPITA STATE 60'v'ERNMENT E:x:PENDITURES ................................................................
19:32 $ ..................
It1PACT PERCENT
E:Ft:S:E CASE CASE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ----------------------------------------
19!30 49:38.14 49::::8. 14 0. 0 0 0.00
19::::1 71:35.97 71 :35o '51( 0.00 0.00
19E:2 !::43:3. 42 :34:~::3. 42 0.00 0.00
1'3':3:=: ?E,!=!'3a '~6 ?E,:3'3o '36 0. 00 0.00
1 '31:=:4 7616~10 7E.16. 10 .... .., i"'t
• .. •. IJ 1.,1 0 .. 00
1985 755'3. :3:3 7554.97 -4::=-:36 -0. 06·
1'3'86 7421.05 741L94 -·~. 11 -0. 12
l'?E:7 71:32 .. 06 7116.51 -15o ss· ·-o. 22
1'?:::::3 E.:314~~ ::::2 E.7·5f7 o :32 -17.51 -(r. 26
1'?:::'3 E. 7.55 ll ·::;.·~ 67:~:2v 30 -23 .. 69 -o D :=:s
1 '3'? (I E.:=!:32. 11 E-!31 0 IP ::::6--21.74 -0 .,·:=!2
1991 6!330a 01 67'~!3a 38 -:31. E.3 -0 • .46
19'5'2 6841.04 6735.05 -1 05·. 99--1.55
1993 E.C!21., ·?:3 E.669a 72 ~152.26 -·=-·::O·'j '-e L..·.J
19'3'4 E.797 D 2:3 t.€,5·~~~ 42 -1:37DE:E. -2~~03
1'395 6435.07 6300.::::7 -134.20 -2 .. 0'3
199E. .;;":.119. 32 -5•~:::·3 D 52 -129.80 -20 l2
1997 s:::t.6 II 6'3 57::::5e '31 -130.7:3 -·::r ·:.·J &;;. a L..·-•
t·~·:;,·::o ...... -'-' 55'~8. E.6 5472.12 -126.54--2a26
1 ~·~9 5:~:7E: a E.3 r: ·:·«=...,. .,. ~ ·-•L.. _, i 8 ':• ( -120.95 -2~~25
2000 517:3 a 75 5066.71 -112. 1)4 -2.16
2001 50:3:3.,57 4':!128. E.t -104.96 -2.09
2002 4 :=:·~4 D :=:6 47'34. 54 -100.32 -2. 05
2 00"3 4774.17 4€.75. ::::3 -·~8CI~:o -2.06
2004 4€.€.6D 34 456'~. (13 -'?7. :31 -2.09 .
2005 4571. 1:3 4474.30 -'?6a !32 -2. 12·
2006 . 44:36.66 4390.11 -96.55 -2.. 15
2007 4411.34 4314.95 -'36o-::::·? =2. 1'3
200:3 4:34:3. :3 0 4247. 4'3 -96~ ::::1 -2a22
2009 4 2:::3 8 :::::3 4187.54 -·~E•a .34 .-, .-.c::' -c.pc.....J
2010 422'?~·:35 4132.96 -'?6s 3'3 -2.28
f~
L.
~~
[
r \ _·
t .
[
f'
\
r
t
~.
,--
J \_-
[~
c
[
L
r
r L
~
::J•_;p·:-~: --.;;p ~~DEL :IMULATIDM: !BA2ES3N ~liD OCS. ::::;:~~--CPE ATED 1 0/ 1 1 .-· ::2 r . "'-·
B-32 r
. . --------~-~-----...:. ----o~--...;..:..--~·~"--·-·-·"--:.... .:..-·-~~:.~-~o...;.;.;_"'"-;.;..-~--~~'~':::(·..;;~·;_,,_,_..,&.·.,.~-~-·-·---'-'·l . ~ ..... :-..;~:;~:,.;~,,~;i;;::_-:.i.;~~-~~~~i2::.~i~L0~.C~~»/;;y~\d;~·j;~~ < .• _.::.:"..~~~~~-!..:_;:;;__'::...:;.~~-'-~::Jt~~s;_C;~4
'
I ,
··:..:.;,
, _ _j
r L .....
L.i
TABLE B.29 •
. MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS:
1~0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
·-·~~-··~~· .. ~·~ ..... ~········-·
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
~ .............. +++••·······
REAL COMBINED FUNDS BALANCE
.... ~ ..... ..._ ............... ~ + • + ........ '!' + * ..................
~-• c ,.._, MILLIONS OF 1982 $$ ~~-. .: ..
~--·~-........................... -·-
:E: FrS:E C FrS:E
H1F'ACT
CASE
PEF:CEI'H
DIFFEF:EI'iCE DIFFEF.:EHCE
2420.861 2420. 8"61
3475.185 3475.185
4687.683 4687.683
5023.308 5023.308
5346.121 5346.121
6173.585 6174.679
7162.925 . 7166.484
8322.921 8331.179
9287.470 9301.430
10606.470 10628.340
11405.320
11936.670
12242.040
12435.020
12411.750
12377.870
12527.430
12694.560
12885.500
13020.160
13101.740
13092.980
13039.120
12936~290
12756.220
12553.100
12330.200
12090.410
11836.A60
11570.050
11293.500
11431.690
11971.520
12316.640
12551. :;: (I 0
12616.570
12676.050
12937.820
13217.170
13517.750
13757.830
13'338. 380
14021.99.0
1405E .• E. 0 0
!4040. 010
1:3944.300
13823.:::70
13681.900
13521.310
13344.780
13153.980
12951. 22 0
0. 000
0. 00 0
(1_(1(10
0. 0 0 (1.
0.000
1 ~ 094
3. 55'3
:::. 258
13.957
21. :=:71
26.371
34. ::;:48
74.602
116.281
204.824
2'~8. 172
410.387
522.609
532.25 0
7:~:7. 66B
836.637.
92'5' •· oo:3
1017.477
1103.718
1188.085
1270.769
1351.703
1430.902
1508.328
1583.933
1657.722
0.000
0. 000
0.000
0.000
0. 000
0. 018
0. 05 0
0.099
0.150
0.206
0.231
0.292
0.609
0.935
1. 650
2. 4 ij9
::::. 27E.
4.117
4.907
5. E.66
E•u 386
7 ~ o·~s
7. E:0:3
~::a 532
'?.314
1 0. 123
1 0. 963
11.835
12.743
1 :;: • 6'?0
14.679
SOURCE: MAP t10DEL S 1 MULATI ON$ SBASE83N AND OCS. 83R--CRE RTED 1 0/11/82
······ ~ ... · .. :. __ ·:~ . ....:--· .:·~· . .;::._.---;,..·.-~.::..:_.,__:_.,·~:; -::.:.... .. ~---::·~. ~--:; ~:·.:---"'-----'_.: .. -_, .. ,~···'-"'-'· ,,; __ ::_,,,,....::.:;.-......... ~-...~"--"·"-·..:··
TABLE B.-3d-.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS:
-·-............ ~···~~~·~··~~·~··_.
1980
1981
1 0~~ ~o~
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1396
1997
1'3·~:3
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009-
2010
1.2 BBBL ROAD~CONNECTEn CAS~
REAL PER CAPITA COMBINED FUNDS BALANCE
~ ·-··· ..................................... ~ ..... ...........
1982 $$·
-··-o-·••_...,.
-~-----· ~--·
BASE CASE
IMPACT
CASE
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
60Z1.18
8375.67
l 0826. 41
11351. 25
11923.44
13563. 12
15332.82
1703~.60
18129.83
2 0596. 14
22415.82
23338.50
23842.30
-·-~---~~uu~.~~
23714.42
23E.2E·. 26
23830.69
24142.43
24205.'99
24222.70
24081.45
23922.12
236.23.52
23238.76
22713.22
22150.92
21559.53
20945.53
20314.83
1'7676.53
19028.37
6021.1:3
8375.67
1082:6.41
11351.25
11923.44
13554.64
15314.07
1 7 0 00. 42
1:3 068.39
20532.02
22362.16
2324'j. 37
23460. OE.
~~~,~ ~~ c~~b~.~u
23418.50
23505.84
23915.51
24408.50
24663.77
24875.67
24936.j9
24969.96
24840.46
24605.4S
24-220.85
.23792.15
23328.66
22837.4-6
22324.58
Zl 79·~. 56
2125'3. 78
0. 0 0
0. (I 0
0. I) 0
0. J) 0
o. 0 0
-8.49
-18.75
-36.18
-41. .:f5
-64.12
-53.66
-89.12
-382.24
~ ., .-. .-. ,.... ---•oo. o-=:~
-295.92
-120.42
84.82
266.07
457.79
652.97
854.95
1047.84
121.;..94
1366.7:3
1507.63
164~.22
176':1.13
1891.93
ZOO':i.75
2123.03
22-31.41
0.00
0.00
0. 0 0
0.00
o_ oo
-0. 06
-0. 12
-0.21
-0.23
-0.31
-0. 24-
-0.38
-1.60
-2.24
-1.25
-0.51
0~36
1. 10
1. 8'3
2.70
3.;;5
4. 3::::
c::' • c::' __ ,. J. ·.J
s.ee
6. E-4
7.41
8.21
9. (1:3
9.89
1 o. 79
11.73
... -"" ··~---·,-:·--,.:~ --~
r \._
f.
r-,
\
L
J"
\_
L,
L~
r'
f 'L
r---
' t "'--',
r
[,
[
,[
r' c
r
r ~~
-L
r L
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SlMULRTIDNS SBASE83N AND OCS.83R--CREATED 10/ll/SZ
B-34 L
2-t-9•2 t.-6~"2 OL~"2 8t.-£"2 J '::'.--• -=' ~·-.:r ·-· :::o~ ~~a ~~~-· D-, •=·~·..::! C· 0 IE. "2 t-:~~E ... 2 ~:~:E. ·c c·r-·":1 ~»•=· ·-·::J'-· ·-· 9L9"0 2Lt.-"O t.t~·o 082"0 2!£"0 2L!QO 080 ~0 ooo=o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o oob·o 089"£! l"t!·"~l 928"tl !L~"t! ·E.Tf"tl t-E.O"tl 0 2E· • :;:: l 868"t-! St-~"£! i:'~.::! .. f;l E.,t·;. DS t 9t~"!! 00t"2 9t.-E."! to 8 • o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o E.Sl "609 9ot·:~o·=.. L20.'tE:~ f;ll .. ~Lf; £0'3"02.~ Lf;E. OE~~~ t-9o·s~~ ! ::::o ·:=:tf; E.6t"lt~ E.o ~ • :~E.fi 210 ·s:=:~ !29. !9~ E.9·3 ·9b~ ~f;6 • r~~ Lt:::·Lr.f; 2L2"6f£ €06"82£ 90 E .• tC:fi soo·~2~ ::::l6"t!~ LOa· n~ .::!:t9 ~ L !£ T22"t-l~ L~O "OE.t ot~·sst 0 Lf ·::::tt -t!6"t!t Lso·aot sst ·n~ L08"80~ t-L6"t-!£ SL2 ·e-lfi 2::::£ "88t 89!.L9t t-L!"S~i:' OL€:"81--t-::=:~:£; G 2~~ s-~:E. ~ a::::t:-0 !02 6002 :;:ooa L002 9002. ~002. t002. ::::o 0 2 2002 !002 0002. 666! LE.E.! 966! t-66! :;::E.E.! 2661 !66J 066! 6E:6! L86! ~86! -t8E.! 2861 !f;6! o::::E. 1 3:•J.J3:::13.::1.:1 I a 3:H.J3:::13.::!.::1 I 11 1J.J3:•:::13d 3:S:I:f] l::•l:ldtH .............. S:m.li:IS:f"IOHl ................................. ~Dill:llrtdOd ll:llDl ................................ 3SI:I] 31DW3d laaa 2"! .................................. ~······ .:SN011J3rO~d 1JbaWI 3criM31YlS l31C~ d~~ • l I :.. -
I ] ] ~1 ~J i] ] ·-., . ~ I ._l . 1 J :] \ I 'J ,J J . ·: ;··".'."·:· .. OLf."i:' t-66"t> t'OO"fi £:!0"£ 91£:1) • fi t.LO 0~ 8L::::(J~ tn ·9 s:=:t 0 ~=: 9:::~ e ::: 8€.(1 • 11 022"2 GLO.! 2t:t"t E:t-E: • 0 oo:::·o 9E:E: a 0 E:8t.-"O ooo·o ooo ·o ooo ·o ooo·o ooo·o L't2"E fiO::'"f 26! ·:;: t:=:ta£: 2L t • E: S9!"8 :l9! ·:::: 98!"8 O~L"t 26E. •t 8E:O. fi lE· 1.£ :::€.2 ra f; 2L939 L€:9 ·.o L.SE .• 0 0!9"CI .Lt£"0 E.T2"0 €.!;2"0. ooo·o o o o ·.o (II) ~I ;-(1 ooc1 ·o 000~0 u--. .-.•. -, .-. C• •:-•:.. C• ;-!f:2"LS lL::: Q9·;. T ·~·-· "Q•.:, ~ -· .:::> -· -· 890 r.9"3-026"~S ~Lf. "f.9 eo:~: ~~ ·~ ·~ LE:€: CJ~·? S60"~9 't"t8"t-9 t-9E .• t-9 06.!'99 .1.. ,..., •• -.,-. Vt!...C· •:. . .;:. ,...,,-. e,-.,-. ~-=-·:.. C.·~ c::~L ·ag 6or.=::::r. E:t.-0 • 9t-! !9 "2·:; t.-8'1:>"29 .:.to·r·:;. Gt-f"09 •:.•--I a ,,-. a••:..~ ~= 'tE:E: ~~~:.£ l E::=: • 0 ·;.. 9E.t-. 09 Ltt·o·:;. 1'3€. "·E.£ 2.~2 •t.~ €·28 ··;.·:;. i;of;8"1.! 0 ~9. 9fi f:!O"ffi o:=:::::,. 2~ l28 ·£:~ 60t ·:::r. E:"t-' 0 .. J;. 't:' . 38~3d3~~Ia 3J~3d3~~Ia 3S8J 3S8J 3S8a l~3Jd3d lJ8dWI ..................... · Sllt~8S:rtCr-l.i. ..................... ~ ... ~······ l~3WADldW3 d01J3S JIS8a .................... ~ ......................... ... 3SYJ 31DW3d laaa 2"1 0 tO 2 E.002 · e:oo::: .L002 9002 fi002 t-002 ::::oo 2. 2002 1002 0002 E.€.6! :;:E.E. t. L6E.! 96E. t t-66! f66! 26E.! t€.6! 06€-! €.:::E.t e::=:E. l 9::::6! S8E. t t-86! tE:E. t o:::;6 t ........................ ~ ........ ~ ............................... ~ ... . . -:s~DilJ3rOdd·lJ8dWI 3cri~3l81S l3ao~ ~~~ "Z£"8 3l9'tfl
OL!"t 902"t 8t2"t 282"t E:C't.-"t 9f:f;. t 8E:O. £ fiatt--·~ 922.9 t1t.-"'3 Lor.··~ !t'L"9 E::::o · t--L t£. t 091"1 -tt.-2."! 'tOO"! 8L8"0 99f;·o ~2.!"0 ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o L£ -8 ...... ..., . ,-. t:· t:··=-.::1 9~2Gf; f;l2°S €:L l . S 6t-! • £ OtT.£ !t€:"£ ~·~=--~ s f,(l! • 9 V2~ ··~ t.L:::g·~ e::::E. • ·::. 9:::::: • L. !f;i:>"L OOO"L 06'!:>"'!:> OOL"1 i::T8"! ot-t-·r !£!"!-G2E. ·o ·t •-,--• n ~=t --L.t-!"0 ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o t-LC'"lfl ,!:~:1"62.! 2!0".!2! 8!2"!2.! S£G • Et 1 t :::: t 2 ·:::11 LE.E. ··;q 1 ~.t·~. L t l LE.0"9ll 990"£11 f:E.6 "f!! Tft"f;!T 291"'~11 9t:::·::::n· 29L":::t1 C'Li:>"tTT OtC'"LTT i;-!!"9!1 t f;C'. 90 t t'f.L • ff, TS6"tE. 0 90 "06 £L.E. ·..;21 t ::::::: • 82.1 LE·L. 12.1 86L "E. 1 t 888".:!.!1 8LO "911 L9:~:·tt1 1.!8"2.11 2.:~:::: • 1 r 1 99£.!! t fL£"601 22.:~: • 80 1 22 t . LO l 66 r • 80 t 92S = 80 T £9f"TT1 '1;-f; ::: "I) t 1 1E:8 "60 T 290"211 09T ·:~:1 r OOB"£TT 'I;-9E. • tn 92::: • £0 r E:E.-·2 .lE· LI9.8E. l~E."l6 090 "(IE. 3J~3d3~~ra 3J~3d3~~ra l~-J3::td3d 3:=:::1-1:""1 lJI:IdLo.II ............. .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . ··~ -. lJ..l31ol,..t.,DidW3 dD.L:GS: sa::t L'\~3.:: ·······;••;;;••••• ......... 0!02 E.002 8002 .:!.002 9002 £002 t--002 8002 2002 1002 0002 6E.6 T L661 96E. 1 £E.E.! t6E. T f:E.E. t 2E·E· t t66l OE.E. T r::.:::61 C':::r::. 1 n::E. 1 08€. 1 :..... ..
•
''" ,.:.,~---."-·'----·:.::.:..:. __ , ",..·:$-.,_:...:.:.::..&.~:i,:· .. :.~~;....__;:_;. . .._:-;:.:;:._:_;..,;·:::~~~ :~:J.+..;,. •. :· ~;:: .•. ·: ~ •. .,.,...-=.,;...;!.;.~....:-..-.-:~-~c -__ ._.,., ~~ ~-~.!.-' ,-;_,....._ • :.. .. :~ . .._._.:.:_ ........... •" . .:~.:.~~~-.~ ...... ~.".OJ.-: .• ~·-··
TABLE 8.34'~
~~~ ~ODEL STAT8JIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS:
........ ~ ................... IIi ....... ;j; IIi ....... ;j; .. 5 .. ,;;
1. 2 E:E:BL REMOTE CASE ........................
GD'·lERNMENT EMPLOYMENT ................... ~~
THOU:S:ANDS .. .......... .
H1PACT PEF.:CENT
E:A:S:E CAS:E CA:S:E D I FFERE~K:E D I FFER£1'iCE ----------------------------~-----------
l'?::::o 7~:: D 5:3·;. ?:::D 589 o.ooo 0.000
1'?;31 :::3u 071 ::::~:0 071 0.000 0.000
1 ·~:::2 ·=·-, ...,c:-e ,_, ( D I" ._l._J :::71r 755· 0.000 0.000
1·::.·:··::· ... ···-•·..,) :=::::: 0 :;: 12 ::::3 a :=: 12 0.000 0.000
1'?84 ::::3cr ~:7'? :=::::. ~.::79 0.000 0.000
1'385 :::8. 153 ~=!!3D 156 (1.003 0.004
1'?::::6 :37.5:::6 :::7 &t E.:35 ..Q .-{14'? 0. 05E.
t·~·=--::o ..... •-• I !3E•s :363 :=:6 D '356· (1. 0'32 0. 106
1 '3:3:3 :37 G ~:4:3 :::7o515 04172 0.1'?7
1 '?!3'3 :?,9o 75E: :3·~. '?74 ·0.216 0.240
1'?'30 '?0.08:3 '3 0. :356 0 •. 273 0. :31):3
1'?'?1 c::3e 2:71 :=::=:. 5:37 0.216 0.245
1 q·::,·:·
o' .,• L-87. :3(10 ::::3. 1'3 0 0.391 0.445
199:::: :37.191 :::E: B 4:36 1.296 1 w 4f:6
1994 87.017 ::::3.7 07 1.690 1.942
1 ·::,·~c:" -· -· ·J :::6.:3:34 8:3.250 1.:365 1 a 572
1 :?~;tE. ;=;5e 5E:3 ;:;f, e :34;3 1.279 1. 4'?5
lqq-::o ...... I :=:s D 22·;. :::E.. 4 70 1. 24 (I 1.455
1'?'?:3 !34o 7'~6 :36. 025 1 ·::.·:·-:. II ..._,__ .,.• 1. 45 (I
1 '?9'?-:::4. 835 ~::6. 011 1.176 1 0 ~::=:6
2·000 :34.771 :::5. :=:65 1. 0'?4 1.291
2001 :::4. :;: 12 :::s., 7:37 0. '3175 1.150
2002 84. E.30 :::5o 51)2 og 87:3 1. 031
200:3 :34.57:3 :3511 :3'33 0. E:21 0. '370
2004 :34CI 527 ~=:5 D :=::31 (1.::::04 0.951
2005 84o506 !35., ~: (13 . (1. 7'37 0. '3143
2 006 :::4o 5 02 ==:511 297 Oo 7•35 0.941
2'007 :34.512 :::Ss 307 0 -:>•::,c e l •. ..J 0. '?40
200:3 84.534 rj~ ~·j•~
·-· -· •• _, ..... d · Om 795 0~941
2009 84a567 :::5 B :36:3 0.796 0.941
2010 ~::4o 589 :35o 385 0 "?•::l'"' Q t J t 0.942
r
( -.
}_ '
[
r
r \
r
L
c
r
I
t \__~
[
r L
fl
[,
t
[
r= ·--,
{
:'JURCE: t-1AP MODEL SII'tULATJOI"i~~ SBASE83t-i· AHD OCS.8:3M--CF.~EATED 10/11..-::~2 •• I
.. 0
l_,
8--,3 8 c
,-.. I~-° C· c...::.•:.. ·-· C" .-.-. 0 .-'.Jt:'•C.· .:,. ~ot·:::: 9'tt>"f t::::r.·:::: ~~t--·:::. "t;-0 fj a:::: :=:G2 Qi:' C:3L Di::' 020 ·~ or.2·~ ooz·o; a:::t • r. L~2"l ".tt-::: • ci · 6£;6"0 SOL "0 · L6~ "i) a9r =o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo·o 6E-8 202"6 t-~!"6 sn "6 60 t . E. oor. ·.:. t-OO"OT t20"tt :=:Lo Get V2L.2t Lt'2·::: 222.2 81';. D2 £:~:€ .• 1 . ~:~f;.! E.·!&" 0 E.o::.s=o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o c:.Ls ·t:=:c 2-E:O a2:=:2 6~f; •t.L2 E.~t·LL2 t'tO"t.L2 f; :~ ·~ • .::;. 2 E.fiL ·:=:·:;t2 at--:=: ~~E.·;. 2 Of.L "992 009"EL2 LtL"t-92 OCiO"SL2 E:E.O ··=.tL2 t9 t =fi::::z OtL"2S2 €.21.L2~ f;E. t D:~:t2 ::::=:,! 11 ~~~2 t-CL 0::::·~2 82t'"S~2 .LE:O "0~2 2os·sG2 ·l E.£; • k;g2 £:92. E.f;2 f;E.::: • 0 92 t>E.t> "292 J ,-, .-:· • ~ .• ':I ~C·•-·. C·~·-· l9l"tL2 SE. T • ::: 't 2 6-!;ot'"t02 3:1~.J3d3.::f.:l I 11 3J~.J3;::13.:t.::f I a 3:5:1::1] 3:S:I::IJ 3:S:I::I:I ~~3J~3d ~JI::IdWI .............................. SUJ..Jl:IS:nOHl .......................................... .lJ..I-3WAOldL.J3 ll::llOl ................................................. 3SI::IJ 3~0W3d lffffff 2"t Ot02 6002. 8002 .!002 9002 f;002 t002 :::o 0 2 2002 1002 0002 E.E.E. t 866! .!6E.t ·~E.E. t ~66t tE.6't E66t 266! T66t 066! L86t ·:;.:::6 T s:::E.i: t-8E. 't t:36 t 086t .................... ~ ............... ; ;• -~· ............ .. :S~OILJ3f0d{ 1J8dWI 3G!~3l8lS ~310~ db~ . ·.st: • 9 3latt 1 ~;-..._.......-~. --~. -~,..-:-:~--;···-··~·:-.'-""'.·-.:' - J ! ,.-J 1
•• ..... :.:_:,_,...._.__._~::....::.:.< ... ._;.;,;;;._:."._ok:..:_~~ ':~~~-i.i.'k·:;i~ .... ~~~~~'"..$• ~~~:-•-z~";>;::...!=' ; .: 'f.::,:-;..:~1iJ;;.dgr-· 'i);-> ·+·: · . ·•. · :: -;; • .-.·,?:;;.; c)' ~:(4;--..__--..__._.:~::_:;:._~~ .. , ...... _.._.-3 · .. ;;n ·:;;.-~_;;,;~:~~-1:-~~-~.2:-,-~·-'-:-" .-: ,;_::.:~:.'_;jj._;:;,;_-?~~~;;.:;_ ·'.":·,,.:_2:~~ · :.:;._;~---·· . .-...:.:>..£.·~~-"t'..;:_·:~-.:::.::.· '::.: .. ':o-:{:;r,.i;_
TABLE 8.36.
!"lAP MOIIEL ·s:T~TEI .•. I I DE I :·t!='ACT · F·PO.JECT !!Jt·i:S:: -. ++++••···~·~··••++++~•+++++••········· 1.2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
~ ................. .
REAL PERS:OI'iFtL INCOME· .................... "' ............. . .. t'1ILLIOI'fS OF 1 ":.182 $· ·. ..... ..................... •·
II'1PACT PERCENT
E:A:S:E CASE CA:S:E DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ----------------------------------------
1"380 6247. €.79 6247. 67'=-' OmOOO 0.000
1981 6551. 144 6551.144 o~_e_o o (1.1)0(1
1'3:32 70:31.:304 7 o::H. :::: 04 0.000 0.000
1 '5fE:3 7300.878 72:CJ(rm !37:3 0. 00(1 1).(11)1)
1984 7339o421 7:3:39o 421 OaOOO 0.(10(1
1";1:=:5 74:3f)e 527 7497.42'? 16.'?02 0. 22E·
19:::E, 7•?·~(1 ~ :3:35 :3022., :3'30 :;:t. 555 0.:395
1'~·=·? ... ._,I 9179. 1:3(1 924:3.1:.::0 6:3 c ·~41 . 0 D E.·;.7
19:::::: 10462.7:30 10540.050 77.:320 o. 7:=:9
1'3189 9922.060 10028.770 106".711 1. 075
1990 :=::3:36a 2E•1 :3·~E.:.:: II E.:~~6 82e375 o. '?27
1 ·~·::.. 1 :=!77'3a 2:30 ~~912 a ~::36 13:3 ~ 1.56 L517 .1. a•" ... • .1.
1 ~~·~-:. •. -· ..... :3€.:32& 1:32 9196.670 514.539 5 D •;t26
1'?9:3 876'?. 375 '31475.610 71)6w 2:38 :3. 05:3
1994 ~::377. 2:=:1 945"20 :3'30 575 0 €.(15 Ero 4:34
1'j';!l5 SS21.000 9396. 020 575. 016 6.519
1'3'?6 ::::=:27. 140 ·?:390. 090 5E.2. ·~s:::: 6a 37:;:
t·~·=:t"':" ..... I :::764. ::::;:s '?3:32. 120 5€.7 e 2E:5 6a472
199S :::945 .. 421 9497.050 5·51 D E.25 E•s 1€,{
1999 9070.840 9594.5:30 523e e.:34 Sa 77:3
2000 9261.790 97::::7. 1 9 t1 475. 4·06 5., 13:3
2 (11)1 9329.610 9762. 020 432.410 4.635
2002 9462.750 9:374.530 411.777 4.:352
2003 95'~9. 870 1000:3. 18 0 408.305 4 -=-C'":\ Cl._._l._-
2004 '3749. 92:0 1015'?.8'~0 409.965 4.205
2005 9'308. 360 1 o::::22. 540 414. 1:?.4 4. 1!30
2006 1(J(J74m46Q 10493.7:30 419.320 4. 1E·2
2007-1024:::.010 l 0672. 9:3 (I 424D '377 4. 147
200:3 10428.700 1 085'3. 57 0 4:3 (I & 8:3:3 4. 1:32
2009 106 04. 090 11 041. 11 (I 437. 02 (I 4. 121
2 010 l 07'35. 46 0 112:3:3u s·~o 443.129 4. 1 OS
B-40~
:Ji_;;~:E: ~~p ~ODEL :IMUL~TI~NS SBASE83H ~~D DCS.S3M--C~E~T~D
r
f'
r--
L
}_,
1 \ -
f ·'
r:
L
c
! 'l_,,
r
~-
L
r~
c:
t:
F
(-_
L
1-
• c
l_,
.:.. ·-'' .· ·-· • ~--.·"11 .···::·\·
::::r..! .Lt-. ! Ofi"! 1::-f; • ! !'3"I fi'=". t I .L.! :::.t • t 08"2 I t • :::: f;·~ • r. o-:;.·:::: ::::8.0 f;t-"0 fifi"O 98"0 s:~ ·o '22"0 fi!"O oo·o 00 • 0 (I 0 • 0 oo·o oo·o 1~8 9:;=· .. E:·;.z !6.2L2 ·t.'t: a LL2 L6GI:32 0 I • .L82 0:::: ·9.:.:::: L~·2L~ r.r.·::::2fi .L6"t-'3f; Ci .-. .. ,-. •.:. .-. ... C• ~ •. .:::. ft-. 9:::£ t:3 ·r.:::~ 0 I) • .L ::: .L 0 2 "E:O 9 L2"t:t-l t-!"E..L i:-9"90! 60"S.L 00"2.L 20"8€ t€, ·E:2 o o ·o o o ·o oo ·o o o ·o oo·o ~r.·sr.r.:::t 82"68!81 66"L628! 6L"8808! f;O"L'318! 69"868lt t9"9208! tL"SfilLl 89~268Lt t-S"fi!9L! €0"99L.L! 90"~8t-Ll Et-"Lt-9Ll 8€"09SLI L2"02t-Ll fi6 • .Lt-::::L I E:O • 9t0 .L t .tt•::::20L1 OE .• S999 I 69"1E..L9I Ofi"€2t-LI LO"L€89! fit"9t-fiLI 18"!969! 2fi"t!LLl 2fi"l269l I8"LlfiLl OI"£0691 fi€"808LI 80"fi9tLl ·tO • tt-fiL l 0 6 ·-r.9t-L I ::::I ",LE.t-0 2 2£:. t 9:=::=: t 0 l "69£:91 16"LE.t-9I tt"68Lfi! 92 "E.ffifit lt "L92E. I fiO"t2ii'02 80"fi01LI 2t-• t-:::t:-9 t 0! "E.9f9t !6".LE.t9l o to 2 6002 8002 L002 9002 £002 t-002 ::::002 2002 !OOc 0002 E.6E. I l6E. t ·~66 1 £661 t-E.6 t ::::661 2.661 1661 0661 6861 :::E:E.I L8E. t to:::.:. t ::::8E.t 2:::6 I tS6t o::::6 t ·3:H~3o3.::l.::l I a 3:)~3o3.::l.::l I 11 3:S:I::IJ 1~3Jo3d ·lJI::IdWI .......... ............. .... . . .. . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .......... 3WO:•~I_ tti~OSo3d 1::111 di.:IJ o3d 11::13;!1 ....................................................... 3SI::IJ 3l0W3d lHSS 2"I ................ :--.................... ·-............ _ .............................. ... :S~OI1J3rD~d lJ8dWI 3cri~318lS 13GD~ ci~~ ·u:-·s 3l8'u'l
------·---------~·-~· ~-~= --~~--~-'<:O •. z..:;~..:z·~i.:.'·:;;;i~.:!~~~-?~"~~:_;_.2..___._;,..__;_.::.._.-:._~.._:-, _ _c.~L_"").::,Q-;;: .:i~.:....C~-~.:.:::.:.:._: _ _, :...·--....&:'.......:...:·..:::....:.'-'-~~.::...::...::_:_~.:._j_:..;:'_;;·;.~ ~--<:_:::...:.;:,:,,,, __ ·:;..:-.:._~«i:&...:..~~:&...:~:::,".c'.i:.Y-o~
TABLE B .3 8'.
r·1AP F'10DEL :~TATEl.d I DE PiPACT P~:O.JECT IONS:
························~···········~-1.2 BBBL REMOTE CASE ................. ~
BASIC SECTOR REAL IJ.IA6E-RATE_
··~·························
?· 1·;.:32 $ .................
H1PACT PERCENT
BASE CA:S:E CA:SE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ---------------------------------------~
19:30 272CiL58 27201.5:3 0. (I 0 0.00
1'?:31 27253a51 27253.51 0. 0 0 . 0.00
19S2 2:3596o 71 2:::5•?6e 71 0. I) 0 0.01)
1'~:3:3 2•;.226 a (1;3 29226u (1:3 o. 0 0 0. 0 0
1'?:34 28:=:19a 5:3 2:=::31'3o58 0. 00 0.00
1 ·~:35 2'?2:31. 75 2'3:35:3. 0:3 71.3:3 0.24
1'~:=:6 321i::4o :E:S ~:2222:. 34 ~8~46· 0. 12
1'~87 :~:8377 a :32 :38447" 76 69.'35 I). 18
1'~88 43599.71 4:=:625. 61 25.90 0.06
1 '?:3'3 3'~702. 80 3'3:3(17 e 37 '104.57 0.26
1'390 :325:3Qo52 :32694.79 114.27 0.35
1'~91 32014.25 ::::2:317" OG ::::02.75 o. ·~s
19'~2 :=: 1:352. 62 :::::3::::21 • 14 146:3.52 4.61
1993 :=:2165. 57 :3~:·:;.t·;.. 5:3 1754.02 5.45
1994 :32~:75. 26 ::::3600.41 1225.14 3. 7~3
1•395 :32346. 14 ::::3731. 4 0 1:;::3So26 4 ·=··:i II L,.l_l
19'~6 :~:2418o 13 :3:3::::90 0 5.5 1472.42 4.54
1997 :325'3:3 0 9 (I 34175.64 1576G75 4. !34
1"?':;.8 :32549e l3 :3402':!. 6'3 . 14:31}. 56 4~55
1999 :::25:37 a 14 33':+64 a 4 (J 1 ~:77 D 2E· 4 ·::.--:.
Q ~--·
2_000 :.::2758.00 :3;3·~:;:7. 73 1179. 73 :30 E.o
2001. :~::.:: 125·. :32 341€.€.-. 19 1040.88 :::Ql4
2002 :;~~!42:3. 4 7 :;:443:3 e. 2 5 1009.77 ::::. 02
200:3 :3:37:=: 0. 13 :34 7€.2 11 1'3 1 o::::2. os :3. 06
2004 34047.55 :35 09.7'0 :32 1050.27 ::::. (1:3
2005 ::::4:37E .• 77 35443.08 1 OE.-6·. 32 3.10
2006 :34713.44 35794.92 1081.48 3.12 .
2007 :.::5057.91 ~:6153. 64 1 0'315. 74 :3. 1:3
2 (I 08 :35409.80 :.::6519. 04 1109.25 3.13
2009 ~:5E.88. 05 :368·15. 74 1127.69 3.16
·2 01 (I 36069. ·~s ;:721 0. 5:3 1140.5:3 :3o.l E•
S:OUF~CE: MAP MODEL :::;IMULATION:S S:BFIS:E83N A-tiD OC:. :::·::M--CF.'2C:TED
8~2
r
c
r
f
--,
--:
r
L~
{
.·.
_,
c
r" I
,'1. .
·-~
[
L
r~
~'
t
L,
E
L
L
10/1 !.-'732
L
L
o:~: · o o:~ ·o o::.·o OE "0 o::: ·o o:~: · o 't:~. 0 r:-:·n :;:::,· oo 28110 t:-2"0 12"0 .:!... 't • 0 .:!... ! . 0 :; 1 . 0 12"0 !0"0 .!0"0-80"0 c.o·o 10 ·o 80"0 o 1 ·o 't t ·o 10 ·o-oo·o oo·o oo·o 00 • 0 oo·o £v-a :::'t"t-.L 92-~l t:-:;"t-1... ·E.O a9L 02"tfi ·t.L"It> ·8 t ·ot 11 • .:!...fi-96"9!.:.... t.L 0:::1 e:·~Dki 0.:!... "1 C; ,I"'::!--.:... r_. oo ·o oo ·o oo·o oo ·o oo·o 9~"t:-It~2 82-"0t:-0~2 't6"966t2 ~9"226t:-2 at·osat:-2 82"908t:-2 6:;"~9.Lt:-2 ~E"I69t:-2 8l"t:;9t:-2 96"9.LSt2 Zt".:!...S~~a ·6o·s9t:-t:-2 89"~2t:-~2 tt"0£8t2 tt"2I8t2 28"982~2 89".L02t2 C!t"08tt:-2 6t:-"9.:!...0~2 £8"000t2 Ot".:!...!It2 .L.:!..."8~0t2 8t"96682 62":;t-682 .:::;·ao6sa 88"99882 12".:!...6.:!...82 80".:!...£.:!...82 28"SS.:!...E2 €8"00.!82 'tt:-"t-9ssa .:!...0"9't:;8a .:!...2"6:;ssa £0"8£882 .:!...6"62182 €6"9t:-t82 a6·£t:;sa t1".!2:;8a 99"BS682 86"2:;682 ~s·eta~c ~s·9r2£2 t:-l "£~192 .LO "9E:t92 Et:-".Lt8t~ 99"t6.:!...t:-2 69"90882 09"18282 2L ~2t·;.22 -~2D9L~22 -;.·3 a fif;:~:zc 9€: OE:~'t22 9L ·s·~~ee LE: •t:-2'322 3:)~3o3.=f ::I I tl 3::1f..l3d3.=f.=f I 11 .Lhl3:t::J3d 3:S:I:I:I J.::tl:ld L.J I ............ . $ 28E.t ················~········••+-+ 318::1 3=:t!::li,.l "11::13::1 ,:::f0l:]3S: S:3:t I ,·\(:{3:5. ~ ...................... .. 3s1::1::r 3J.DW3d 1aaa 2·1 010::~ E.002 :::o o a .:!...002· 900 2 £002 t:-002 £:002 2002 1002 0002 E.E.6 1 966! :;661 t:-E.6 l :::6E.l 2E.6 t 16E.l OE.6 t E:f:E. l .:!...861 9:=:E~ t .................................... ~ .................................. -+ :S:f..lOilJ3rDod ~JI:IdWI 3criM3l~J.S l3ITC~ d~~ "6E"8 3lS'fl
---~ . .~ ..• 2. <. , -.___,_-:~ • .....:::--. :.~.::::~~;:.,.:~~;.~~-~ .... .::~~,y.::_ ... ~;:::.:_ •• ;__,__ · : •. -:: .• --· ;-_.,:.:_,;::;~_i..-::,;::..:~~.,:_,:::J.~:.._:,..:L-:~: < ·-=-~-."_!::..:'~:;~----~-~.:, ·"· .. ' ····-~..::..~:·:,__:._,_..~.,~:..._-__ ;~_.,:..:-'-.~-··I;:.;:.·ii4....:::___.:.~..:._.-:._;;_ .;_;,.;__ · .. -);; ..• :-. -..-:~~--,_. · -·~-~-,::·.':;_-t· __ '.;.r~L<~,_,i>··;_ ,,:_,_
TABLE B .4<;'.
~~~ ~DDEL STATE~IDE I~PBCT-PROJECTIONS:
•••+~••••••++••············~········. 1.2 BBBL REMOTE CASE ....................
. -GO'·/EF.:tiMENT SECTOR REAL IJJA•5€ RATE ................................
1'382 $ ....................
BAS:E CA:S:E
IMPACT
CA:S:E
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
19E: 0 2:3.46'3. :32
19:=:i 2~3605.52
1982 24451.50
1983 24813.00
1984 25148.11
1985 25508.86
1986 25974.68
1987 26573.26
1988 27122.75
1989 27:304.00
1990 27379.02
1991 27763.93
1992 28179.68
1993 28612.7~
1994 29 048. 1 0
1995 29490.98
1996 29960.8~
i997 30433.24
1998 30915.46
1999 31399.:30
2000 31894.02
2001 32398.59
2002 32918.60
2003 33446.18
2004 33983.82
2005 34531.57
2006 35089~44
2007. 35657.73
2008 :36236.54
2009 :36$26.35
2010 37428.28
234~9.32
23665.52
24451.50
24!313.00
25148.11
25508o62
25974.10
26571.19
27120.33
27300.50
27376.70
27760.57
2·816'?. 41
2:::5•3(1., 9:3
29020.47
2'?46:30 2:::
2'3'~:::: 0 D •;.6
30400.5:3
3087'9cil
::::1 "361 D :=:2
:31:355.95
3236!u33
:328:31 a '32
:.33408.75
33'344. 40
344:3·~. 8 0
:35045. 08
:35€. 1 0., €.7
36186.65
36773.46
:37:372o 41
0. 00
g.-{ll)
0.00.
(1.(1(1
(I~ 0 0
-(1. 25
-0.5:3
-2~07
-2.4:3
-:3.51
.-. .-,0 -c.~~~·'-
-:3. :':!h
-1 0~ 27
-21 e :::6·
-27 o E.4
-27.70
-=-2'3D :=:8
-:~:2,65
-:=:sD 75
-:37.47
-:38 D 07
-37.2.7
-36e68-
-37.44
-39.42
-4L 77
-44.:36
-47.05
-49.89
-52.89
-~~ 0~ ~~.wi
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.00
-0.00
-o. 01
-0. 01
-0. 01
-0. 01
-0.01
-0.04
-0.08
-0.10
-0.09
-0.10
-0.11
-0.12
-0.12
-0.12
-0~12
-0.11
-0.11
-0.12
-0.12
-0.13
-0.13
-0.1+
-0.14
-0.15
[
r
I -
r
\ .
r'
L
r~
L
r
r-
1 !\ ... __ .
f=·
L
L
[!
c
c
[
L
l
l~ ~
.: Jt_~= CE::
B-44 l,
-.--- -----.----... ---------... --~~~ ~ODEL ~IMUL~TID~~ ~~H~~~~N HNV Oc~.~iM--G~~~TcD lU/ll/~~
8Lt-. ·~ !92"9 E:f:O • ·~ 1!8"f; '1::-f:f;"f; 0€.0 • f; i::-f;6"t-SJE:"t-fi'="'3' • t-S9'f:>"'f:> c:c!::. ~ r..: 2tt:. €: s:::~ · t 2-t:-6"0 l2:~:. 0 fif;2"0 t't:-2"0 2.6!"0 ~9£:!"0 £.:!.0"0 o so ·,o ooo·o ooo·o 000.0 ooo·o ooo ·o E:62 II LE~ t 2.2.0 •t-:::t _CL9. 0 E: t lfiC!alLl ~28·€:Lt 2LC a ·;t-·;. t L.L'~. L 9t a:::£ol9l E. f; :~: •. s -9 l :::£:0 "19! 9:::o · 22.1 t29cr89 lOl a6€: -ttf:"t! 1;-:~L. T T 22.t"2! 6€:0. E. f;9t. ·~ i:'t8"8 21::-2""-! ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ~~:=: ·-t-20 8 9L:::: 09'30::~ 2.8l"S9tf: f 16.::::22::: tot ·ooe:::: s1:=: ·ot:=:a 1.?0 L • ~E::=:a t.99 ·st:f.a ! !f • !6E.2 80t-"8f;Of ff;2"0LT8 222."0928 0 !02 6002 :::002 .:!.002 9002 S002 t002 8002 2002 !002 000.2 996"8Sl8 S8t-"t6S8 666! 9f;9"8988 2.62"80.:!.8 8661 S8S"986~ 2.tfi"f;ll€ 2.66! 896"2.00t SS0"!£88 9661 l90"986S 6t6"t08€ ~661 8l8"£:80t L8l"1S68 t66! 688"002'1::-8!L"9S!t 866! JE.9"££2t t-8E. "Sl2t 266T OLS"10t-t 922"L88t 1661 988"!29'1::-2S9"609t 0661 t2.8"!11S 20i::-"660S 6861 Lvs·otLt 808"fOLt 886! 88!"£9lt 81L"8Slt L86T £;92 •t.f;irl:' lCE. ofik;n 9:=:t.l 86S"l6l~ 1SS"96lt S861 SSL"9998 SSL"999S t86l Si::-0"6S98 St-0"6£98 8861 L2.0"08lt 2.20 "OSlt 286! 8lt"€68S 82.1"8688 !86! 08E. t 3:t~;l-3o3.:i.:l I a 3:H~3o3.:i::l I 11 l • .f3]d3d 3:S:I.:IJ l::tl.:ld~H ........................... ~ ~86! .:lD S~OilliW ............. ··~· ............................................. . S3n!-13.·\.3::~ l~3lol~o3r.o~' 3.L8lS: l1.:13o '"ll:I.LDl ··········~···••-+•+ 3SI.:IJ 3.LOW3d 1aaa 2"t .,.. ........ ..;.. .......................................................... .. . -:S~OiiJ3r06d ~J8dWI 3GIM3l8lS 13[0W d8W ·.-r_v-·s 3lS'ill
J ] -r ,} 1 ] _j J J ::::o::: ·o O'tf"O f.'tS"O £;~::::. 0 ~L£:. 0 :::E.::~ a (l t2t:-"O c;·~r.. 0 ·~tf; ·o :::L.f;. 0 289~0 ·:;.:=:·;. .. 0 LZL"O .t:=:L "0 Lt-8"0 E:i::'E .• 0 f;9"'"fl 012"0 2S't"O LS't"O 221"0 £:60"0 i::''tE:"L 890 "8 S"VL a e: . LE·l06 trt.!"6 t--tt"Ot 2.!8"11 S2.Lo2l l2~Qtt E.L.::: Q 82. ··2sfi Q ·;.e :::81 ° 0_ ::: ·E·'t~CJE:€: av::: ·8a at-:::: • L ~82"f; 008"£ .. ;.~a 0 "P L~2°8 !;SLQLlG2 6:::L D92G2 t66"88fi2 Ot-L"t>Sfi2 8£L -O~L£2 0 E.9 •t.E.~2 SLO Gc:::::=:e E.;:!:=: "lO E·2 l::.-t · t.6£.a .!.86 • f;(l 't :::: nz·or.z::: l2L aL:;:£;:~~ 9L'3' 0 L9~E: -t:::t. "£;t:s:::: 't 't 9. 0 0 f;f SO fi. 't :::t-E .LS6 • v8t-€: L6i>. L8t€: SL€· G:=:t~2 E:C!E .• 0 :~f;2 298"9t-~2 c:6t-"06S2 i> 't.::'. • 0 2 9 2 0102 f,(l(!2 8002 .:!.002 9002 S002 t-002 ::::002 E::t-L "t0l2 2002 9S6"t-SL2 !002. E:t-S"Lt:=:2 0002 i:-1 t. 'tE.::::2 6E.f. 't 8H:: "0862 :::66 t 618"t-:::o:::: L66't 2~::;: • ·;r t 2::: ·;.E. E. 1 t-SE"'t.Lff S66! 8E:f; . L~G:::: tE.E· t Lfi t "t-::::s:::: EE.6 t 26S. 2! s:::: 266! 892. E::E.t-f t66 T 122 "9L~:::: LS't "6.Ltf 990. 'tE.r.:::: Ot-2"t-8t:-S 0€.6 t 68E. t E.t-0 60 L0!.-0 l St~ ":::s-r.s::: 988 ·9·~1::-:::: 9:::E. l 820"0 LLL"O 68£"tt-~f 2t8"0i:'~€ £861 ooo·o ooo·o sre·tt~s srs·r.t~s t86t ooo·o ooo·o +9o·sots +9o·sotr re6t ooo·o ooo·o t££"tS98 tS£"T£98 286t ooo·o ooo·o Lts·o962 Lt8"0962 t86t ooo·o ooo·o £ts·soo2 6Ts·soo2 0861 3:'r~3o3::l.::li a 3Jr.J3o3.:L~ r 11 3S:8J 3:5:8::, 3S:8::r l~3Jo3d lJI:idWI $ 28~t ::lO S~OilliW ······-~············~··················· S3onlia~3dX3 l~3W~o3AD9 3ll:ilS l83o 18101 .................... 3S88 31DW3o 1aaa a·1 ~···••++++•••····················~···-~ : S:r-JD I l')3!D:::Jd . .l:H:L:!l·; I 31} I f•'i3ll:il.:. l3ilOL d~ ~.,
,_,
~~,
-"
~·
__ _..
""'
r-,
t;
t__J
L~
c.J
' __ ,_.:;c ............ ______ , __ ,..:_ .. ------=---........:;:..___. __ . _____ _ ;·_. --~---·~---.:::.:...,.::·:..~.;,..:__.:. '.;,~·-__ ........;:.....:~ . .:..~ . ..:-..... __ ·;~ -~.:~ .:.:~-~ ..... -::..:-~--···---'---. -----··---·.·,..: ...• :...:.!';;: ••··· ··--·
.·_.'"":
TABLE 8.4:3.
··i.::i=· r·iQDEL ·s:r.;TE'~IDE P.1PAC:T ?F:OJECTIDr·E:: ................................................................................
1.2 BBBL REMOTE CASE ........................................
F.:EAL PER CAP ITA :S:TATE GO'v'ERNI"tENT E:><:PEtm ITURES
..................................................................................
19:::0
19:::1
19:::2
1 ·~::::3
19:34
1. ·:;,·::·o::--· ·-~·-·
1'3:=:€.
1';.87"
1988
1 •::r·=··:. •. ·-· -·
1990
1991
1 QQ~ ~~~
1993
1994
1995
1 ·:.·~.::. "" -· -· ._.
1997
1 QQO ~~~
1999
2000
2001
2~2
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
BASE CASE
4'3'88. 14
71:35. ''97
:?,4:33. 42
7E.:::·~. '?6
7616.10
-.;c:-c-.::, ·j-'j.
t' ·-··-' -· • ·.J ._.
7421.05
7132.06
6814.82
.-?C"C" ·:.·~ t:• I ·-I·.J • •' •'
6832.11
6830.01
6841.04
E. :::21 • ·3:3
t=. 7•:,-, ·-··=--·I ... ( • C.•-•
6435.07
~11Q ~~
~44~.w~
5866.69
55·31:3. E.E.
5::::7:3 D E.:3
5178.75
50:3::::.57
4894.86
4 774. 17
4666.:34
4571.13
44:?-E .• f,6
4411.34
4:34:3. :30
4 ·~ ·=· ·:· ·=· ·=-L. ·-· ·-· • ·-· •.;;.a
422'3e :35
1'382 ~; ...........
I~1PACT
CA:S:E
4'3':38. 14
71:35a 97
:343:3. 42
?E,:::·~e '~6
7E.16.10
7554~ '?7
7411.94
7116.51
6797.32
6732.30
6816.36
E.7'3!3 D :::::3
6735.05
6669.72
6659.42
6300.:::7
c: •:& -=· ·.::. c: ·J ·-· ... ·-· ... -. ._. "-
5735.91
5472.12
e~~~ ~~ ~c~r.bt
5066.71
4'?2!=:. E. 1
4794.54
4E.75a ::::3
456';t. 03
4474.30
4390.11
4314.95
4247.49
4187.54
4132.96
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
0. 0 0
o. 0 0
o. 0 0
0.00
o. 0 0
-4a :36
-=·:;.-. 11
-15u55
-17.51
-2:3. E:3
-21.74-
~;1 h:~: --,;_, II_,
-105.99
-152.2E.
-1::::7 a :3E•
-134.20
-1 ·=· •:l ·=· .-. • L-. .-·· D ,_, '•'
-130.78
-12E .. 54
-120.95
-112.04
-104.96
-100.32
-·~:::a :3 (I
-97o:31
-'?6a :::2
-'?6·o 55
-'~E ... :;:·~
-96. :;:1
-9E•a :34
-'3'6. ~!9
0.00
0.00
o.·oo
0.00
. 0. 00
-0.06
-0. 12
-0.22
-0.26
-0.::::5
-0.32
-0.46
-1.55
~ ~~ -c.c~
-2.03
-2.09
-~ 1~ ~-·~
:-2. 2:3
-2 .. 26
-2.25
-2 D 1 E.
-2.09
-2.05
-~.06
-2.09
-2.12
-2.15
-211 l';.t·
-2a22
-2.25
-·:. ·=··=-L-a L-'-'
:.:.':;.... ._;c.._:· .. :·~~-....
~OURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N AND OCS.83M--CREATED 10,·11~82
B-4 7
--.. ----------'" .. ------···-----; ___ . ___ .:_~.----~ ........ -:.... __ ._. _____ ~--.:._ . .____.__;;.__. ________ . -----~----..:......·~---'---'-----~---_____ :_ --·. --~ :::.:. ---------~~-:.-~;-.:... ··-· ,· ·---------~--"----_-.___ · ...... .:.,:-'"-..____,: .. :.:.:.~-~-:_:;.-• .:.$-~.::.i.b::
TmBlfE~.t-1?4-
l':fA:t' : H:a:nRL STAT:EWIJl~ ::UfE'KC:.T .FRO .IKC:TIONS: ::
..... -· • t .. ~ ¥ i •• ~ ......... i ' • ~ ~ • f ' •• ii ~ J ' i ~ 4 ' 4 ~ ... +
~l-2 ~B::Effil HE t1DTE J:ASE
,., "' "' ...... j .. j j j ' j ..... j •
=RER.L :COMI:::INEIJ FUNitS :BHLAf'iCE
, .............. ~.It ......................... I. !o. t ........ .
. --:-·----·; l''fLLLIOiiS OF l9H2 _$ -·. . .
--+-+-....................... ~.........,+-·-~ -·
HWACT F'ERCEf"iT
BASE CASE CASE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
-------------------------------------------
1980 2420.861 2420.861 0.000 0. 000
1981 3475.185 3475.185 o.noo ,_ 0. 000
19:::2 4687.683 4687t683 o:ooo 0.000
1983 5023.308 5823.308 0. 00 0 0. 000
1984 534p.121 5346.121 0. 00 0 0.000
1'~95 6173.585 6174.679 1. 094 0. 01:3
1'?86 7162.925 71f.-6. 4-84 3.559 I). 05 0
19:::7 :::322.921 8331. 179 :=:. ~5·8 0. 099 .
1 ·:::·: .. ::. pi'"'-''-' 92:::7.470 9:301.43 0 13.957 0. 150
1·;;>:::9 10606.470 10628.340 ·. 21. 871 0.206
1990 11405.320 11431. 6'30 26.371 0.231
19'31 119::::6.670 11971. 52.0 :34.84.:3 0. 2':12
1'392 12242. 040 12:316.640 74.602 0.609
1'733 12435.020 12551.300 116.281 0.935
1'~'34 12411.750 12616.570 204.824 1.650
19'315 12377.870 126.76. 05 (I 29:3. 172 2.409
19'36 12527.430 12'!137.82'0 41 0. 387 ·;:. 276
19'37 12694.560 13217. 17 0 522.609 4. 117
1'~'38 12885.5Ct0 13517. 7~.1) 632.250 4.907
19'i'~ 13020.160 13757.8:30 7;37.668 5.666
2000 13101.740 13938.38 0 936 .. 637 E.. :;:et:.
2001 13092.980 14021.990 929.008 7.095
2002 13039.120 14056.600 1017.477 7.803
200:3 1293€ .• 290 14040.010 110::::.718 ::: G 532
2004 12756.220 13944.300 1188.085 9.314
2005 12553.100 13823. :::7(1 1270.70:.9 1 I). 123
2006 1233{1. 200 13681.900 1351.703 1 0. '76:3
2007 12 090. 410. 13521.310 ·1430.902 11.835
2008 11:336.460 13344.78 0 1508.32::: 12.743
2009 11570.050 1315:3.980 1583.'333 13.6'310
2 010 1129::: . .5 (I (I 12951.22.0 1657.722 14. 6'?'3
.r ,.f
c
[
r.
[
C.
[
[
r·
I
I
• --I
F
L
L
[
t~
L,
F
L
r
t
[
SOURCE: MAP MODEL S II'IUL AT! DNS SBRSE83N AND OCS. 33M--CRE f\TED 1 0/ll/SI"
...... ·:--·-""":"-
,,
--~ .. -~-·-·__;__· __ ·.
r 'L,... t< i-'.OC.u.45.
• MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS~
-·················.: ..................................... ++
1. 2 E:BBL REMOTE CASE · . ............................................
REAL PER CAP ITA CDt'1B H4ED FUr·'!DS :t:ALANCE
-...... ·-...... i I • • • ... I i i • lo i .. ' I" • + lo • t • I • .. • ~ io $ ..
1982 $ ..................
-·--'-'---=:t..~o.d:.~...:.. ~ • .··.<~--;..,:...........:::,..:,:. ,_~:.-:.:....:..:...0.:~ .. --...._ --~ • •-_,-'-.,_, •-__ :.:..;.::.:;:.__. _ _;.........._.:...,; • ,i __ --·-· _. ·--~:...:,._.:.,.~--'-_ :;·:-:;: _: . .:.~·i.i.-~-;_ .... __ :.:. ..;_ . ...:.~..:-.-...:.~----._:-'----~--:.-~.,_ _ ---·-~ -~ -;:,. __ .,·;_·: ' ... ..:...:..~ •::,:..'.~:. ,_ __ . ..;:.o'~·~·-·-·-~::.;~t-";;:,:!;:,,·,2,, __
TABLE B.46.
:·;AF· ~·1 ::::!L=.:L : T ~TEi..JI DE Ir-iF'AC T r=-;;;:o _!E CT I Or-G :.
........................................................................... t •• *.
1'31:30
1981
1 ·~:=:2
1'3:=:3
1984
1 ';t!35-
1'~:=:6
1 0:.~7
-o• ·-t •
1 ·=:i·::O·-· q··-·0
1 '?8'3
1'5190
1'31'31
1 ·::.·::.·::. •.•. k
199:3
1'?94
1995
1996
1'~"?7
199:3
1'319'?
2000
2001
2002
'200::::
-2004
2005
2006
201)7
21)0:3
200·~
2010
.E:A:S:E CA:S:E
402.057
414~914
4:=:2. ·?:::6
442.5:::::3
448o37(1
455.174
467.163
.:1 -=· ·:. c:_ .0:• ·::. I t-; I,.} • ._! oj J;;.
512o275
514.974
508.807
511.458
513.459
518.054
52:3. :~::34
523. '3 03
C" ·::. r:: .•• -. c:"
·-· '-·-' • '=• ·=· ·-· 525.819
5~:2. ::::27
537. 51'~
544. 060
547' Q ::::17
551. '355
556G E.t,·;s
5E.1.621
5-E.E.sr 70:3
571. '3114
577. 2:=:1
5:::2·. 651
5:38 .. 012.
59:3.509
2.4 E:E:BL CASE ........... " ....... ..
TOTAL PPPULATIDN
......................... $
IMPACT
CA:S:E
402.057
414.914
4:32. ·;t:36
442o 5:=:3
44:3.:370
455.540
46:30171
4'30. 54:3
514.205
517.907
511.610
515~211
52'3. 850
541. 7'33
s:~:7. 6 03
5:39.482
542. ·~76
545.107
552. :3::::1
C' C: -;-.-•:r C'
·-' ·.J I • I:> ·-•-..J
56~:. 6:.::1
566.214
570.462
575.060
s:::Ou21E.
s:::s. 625
591.214
596.934
602.767
608.546
614.465
F'ERCEI'~T
DIFFEF.:ENCE IIIFFERENCE
0. 000 o. 000
0. 000 o. 000
0.000 0.000
0.000 .0.000
0.000 0.000
0. :3E· 6 0. 08 0
1.008 0.216
·:=t rr"'"? ,., A+.O:.
'-.• V .&. I 1,..1 • ..,. J. ·-•
1. ·::s2·~ 0 g :~:77
2.933 0.570
2.804 0.551
3.753 0.734
16.391 3.192
23.739 4.582
14.219 2.717
15.579 2.974
17.291 3.289
19.288 3.668
20.054 3.767
2 0. 11 5 ::::. 742
19.572 3.597
18.897 3.453
1:3.507
1:3 D ::::·~ 1
1:::. 5';t5
1:3.917
19.:31)0
19. 70:3
20.116
20.5:34
20.957
:3(1 :35~:
2: D :::04
3.311
:~:I> :.:::3:::
:~:. :375
3.413
:3D 452
:3. 4'312
::::~~·5:31
[
c
[
[
r
r-
L
r
[
r,
I
L
,r
L
[
[
c
[
~~~t
[
c
::JURCE: MAP MODEL S IMULAT!ONS SBA::E83N AriD OCS. :::::::H--CREATED 1 0.···11 ·· ::{
f·~ •
.._;
B--,50 L
.--, TS-8 ~ l I t-f.f, D ~~ t:G~ ·~ I~--·~ .:::1 -· "E.·:;. .L60 •• -. ..=, .=. -· I) 102 £:f. E. ··;. Q':ll-. ... ·-·-= •t-0£2 • E.·;. t2L •t--9 6002 1:=-:=:.: . . 9 E.E.'t:' •t-0 !6 • e:·;_;, !!t.-(I p•;. :3002 OC:E .• 9 OL"t:' ·r. 80£ • :=:·;. E:E:O "t.-9 .L002 2LE. "9 It-t-"i:' 9fT Q :::9 SE.9 a :::•=.r 9002 O'?E· 89 c:rr. ·r. r o ::: ·l·;. 68:~: ··-·Q -=..-... £002 !£6 . .::, -· LE::;: ·r. ·;.o £ • ~ ·;t 6! r Q :~·;. 't:-1)(1.3 t.-£6 . ·;. to ·' ·::· ~·-"to Olc·.t·;. '3t.::: ·c·;. ::::002 L6l . ·' f;!f; ·r. :::t--2 II fl-t-:~:L • 2'31 2002 ... ~~ r ·;.·;. D ·' J .• I ·r. 80t.-a I•""" l !9 ·a·3 !002 ... '-t•.::.. "-==' . -.• -,-.• ·=' C.·.=:..::r ·-· "P r.:~: "f; .-.~.-. C•C·•:• . L'~ "P8t-II z·;. 0002 't:'LL . t. t--96 a.-. =-£:8E. 8 ·;.9 6!0 . r·~ .:.f. f. r ·~-=·~ ·o I t-6f ··~ f.•-· I -·:..~ ··:;.·? f;'t:'S • 0 ·;. 866! OL2 = f f LO£ . ·~ :=::t.-2 "t-9 C(•-. I . ·' .-. L6.:. r J ._ • .:_. '"'"" Ot--L ·o ! 92+--• '31 092 D 9':;. -pc·C• ·-··-· . E.~ 9E.f. r I ::;6 ··€. .Lt-E. Qf; .-.-,,-, • i·C, r::::=: 116~ ~E.E. l OC-C• .::1 -· 29.! • I .::.. 92.! ·r. 909 •. -.c, :::::. ... IE:E; "09 t-6E·! .:.o L "6! E::26 . r l .:. rt ··2.: %i:' • 09 f66! 8L.t:-"91 906 .6 €20 ·o..: .L! r "09 2661 .. -.. -. . -, lOt . l 2':!'€: e 1'~ !96 ··sfi ! E . .:.! ~~-·:.. c. ':IQO::· . r .LOE: ·o 6SO ·osr 2£2 G6G l)f,f.t '-• ... ·-· 209 . r 0 LO . ! 006 ttL9 t.e:3 09'3 ,:.:::E. 't 8l.L ·o 9!~ .:o ;:.·~€: •2.t -p.-.·=· . !.L ::::::6! =·-· 2£! . ! StL ·o 2L2 -~9 82£ 8 t•;.. L:::6 i Li.~ ·o ) ..... -. '-C·':.· ·o 9E:E. ·-;.~-099 • •.=.r-· _,.:;,. 9::::€.! E:E:t.-·o 6£2 ·o i:'L2 • -=··-· ·-·~ £!0 . .:·,-· ·-·.=::1 ~:::E. l 000 ·o 000 ·o o:::::::-. ':"•-· OE:E: a-,,-. i>8E.t ·-·~ -=·=-000 ·o 000 ·o .!.2::: 0 :~:s J ~,-. • c·r· ~::=:t.! .:-c .. :.. ·-·-= rl 000 ·o 000 ·o ,-.,-. I C..•:.-~ ·af; ::::t:L g -,,-. C·::J e:::r:. t 000 ·o 000 ·o E.o r. • :=:t.-60t • :::t:-!86! 000 ·o 000 ·o 8t0 -·9t 8i:'O "9t o:::t.t ----------------------------------------3:')~3d3-.:!::l ra 3Jt-13d3.:!.:1 I tJ 3:S:I:D 3S:8:t 3S:tl:3: lhi3Jd3d J..:ttldWI ..... ' ......... ·-.......... .; ... . .-, J..~3WAOldW3 d01J3S: JISt/:3: .................. ++++-+ 3:S:t/J ra:aa t"2 •••• .; + • .;. ' .. .; • .;.; ................. oi ............... + ........... .. :s~OilJ3rOdd l~~dWI 3cri031~12 13crow dYW ·---' -~v·s 3l8'ifl
·--.:..: ______ ..:: ___ _._~~·-'..:-·----"-------~ :.~--·-··_·,-~, ·_-.:..::_.,:._:._•,_:::..:..·.:_::.:~'·~· ~-· ~:~ _ _.... ___ • __ -~-:.:....;_.;_~-... :.: __ ~:.:..:.:.........::::..:.~--··~· .. _·~-•.. --=----'-•·...;;__:__;_...:_: _____ ,;..~..,.!:.......-.:.-~: ---. · __ -------------
T AoLE r3 -~::~S.
t·~=:=· r·11JDEL STATE! .• : II;E PlF'ACT ~·F::OJECT I Or·E:: .................... ~ .................................................... .
19:30
19:31
1982'
1';t:=::3
1 ·;.:::4
1'?:35
1 '3:3€.
1';:37
1 s~:38
1989
1990
1'391
19'32
199:3
1'394
1995
19'36
1 •=4•=4?
_,• 0 • 1
1'3'?!3
1'3'3';.
2000
2001
2002
20Ci:=:
2004
2005
2006
2 007
200:3
200'3
2010
2. 4 BBB_l CFt:S:E ....................
S: ER'·/ ICES SECT !JR EMPLOYMENT
··········~··············~
IMPACT i='ERCENT
E:AS:E CA:S~E CA:S:E DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ---------- ---------- --------------------
7''3.:312 7•;. G ::::12 0.000 0.000
:31.714 81.714 0.000 0. 000
:3E. o E·41 :36.641 0.000 0.000
90.060 '30.060 0.000 (1. 000
'31. 951 '31. '351 ·0.000 0. 000
·;t:3 Cl E. 17 '3:~!a 7:34 .0.117 0.125
'37. 2"~8 '37 u'35(l 0. E.53 0.671
105.,:326 106. 4·9:3 L 1]1 1. 112
114. '364 1'16.1 0:3 L144 (I D '3'35
115.:300 117.:.::81 1.581 1 D :365'
11:;:0 160 114.655 1. 4':il5 i p ~:21
112. 063 11:3. 9 03 1. 840 1. 642
1 0'3. :?,:31 116.022 6. 191 t".; ... ·'j~
._1 D '=•·.J (
11 (1. ~:54 120. 039 ·~ o E.:35 :::. 777
111.365 116.,:=::35 5o51'3 4. '356
1 08. :::26 116.123 ... ·:.q-. { . ..__.{ E .• 70E.
1 08.1'3'3 115.264 7. 065 6.530
107. 122 115o 5Er3 :3. 441. 7 ~ !3~30
1 1)!3D :322 116.9'31 :::.E.70 ;3. 004-
1{1':!' a 57~: 11:::. u::o :3.606 ~ ·=•~C '{ p ._ •• _ • ._.
111.566 119.779 8o2l3 7 G ~:::E.2
111. 3::::2 119.051 7. (l':.:J E.G '3:3:3
112. :::71 120.185 ?a:31:3 6. 47'3
114.367 121. 41'3 7. 052 6.166
116. 078 12:3.041 E.D ·~E.3 C" ·=-·~·=-·-' 0 o' e'
1cJ
117. :::::::3 124.:::48 6 o ·;.E.l 5. '305
11'3 0 7'3::: 126.806 7.008 5.850
!2la 7•?7 12:3e 8rS8 7.071 Sa806
123o 8!31 131 .. 022 7.141 ~ ..., ... 1:'
• ..J • t l:o...J
125.975 133.18:3 7~213 5.726
1 28-~~ 1 :3:=: 135.468 7a286 Sa 6:=:4
-----
[
[
[
r·
r
r·
L
c .. ~
r·
I
L
r=
l
L
c
t~
L
[
h
j
:S:OUF.:CE: !'lAP MODEL :S:IMULATIOI'iS S:BFt:S:E83N AND OC:S:. :3:3H--CREATEB 1 (1.-·11-···:::2 L
B-52
I I . ~~
L
t: S-8 ~H:: . 1 sn . t TO.! . .-;;::: 6:3~··. t.-E: 0 TO:? ;:! r:::: . 1 0 n . T 9L·;. ····=· .. .:. ("· "tE: 6002 .:a:•-' ~;.:1 :::o:~: . 1 90 t . t Ot-9 ·_G8 -tC·•-· ~~~8 8002 •...-.:> .£;08 . t SOT . ! S!9 • 1"•:• 2'IS e-pe: .!002 .::1'-' 80f: . 'I TOT . 1 E::O 9 ·s::: 20S ·ts 9002 so:::: "1 £0 'I 0 t 609 "£E: 90S "t-8 .£;002 9tf . 'I 2! 'I . ! £.:::9 II£;:=~ ·~·-· "t-8 t.-002 '-•:..= L'~:::: . ! 9~! • ! .•-, I '=··=·~ •fi::: £L~ oi::-8 8002 9St . 'I -.~-":1 . 1 2'5ff: .. ,-·C· 089 • t-::: 2002 -=·C.··-· .;::::.·-· 86S . 'I 9~8 . 1 L9t 119:=: 21 :=: "t-8 !002 .-:-.-· ) . ! 9E:'P . t Lf;2 II c.•=• !.!.! • t-::: 0002 ._ .. ;:::2~ -· ,_, 0~8 . t ~ C!·-· • t SOt-09:3 .-.. -.-. D'f:-Et 666! -·..-.:::I .=;:..c. :::9~:: . 1 ~:::~ . t E.L:S D 9::: Cj .• J J 1:•.:... "tE: ==:t.E.l 2t.! . 1 S8t-0 1 ~TL 119::: 622 Q ·-··=· LE.E.t .::t•-· -·=..::::·3 . 1 oot· t E:9E. • 9::: €.'3£; • s:::: ·~t.E. t ·62t-. 0 2L:~: ·o L£2 . .L:3 t-:3:3 • c:a~~ ·~·.::.: T o• ·-· ~·-··-· . .~::::·3 "2 ) ~-.-· b... \.-•:.-. ..., 0::· 2~8 •t.:=: .!!0 a l::! t6E.1 St1 . .., 0.!8 . 1 !90 u£,::: !6 t II .LE: f:E.E.! ·=· 60~ ·o Li::'t ·o 9t2 ·a::: 008 . ) .-. ~·=-2-E·E· t -, ... -, c-t·,=· ·o 8S2 ·o 82'3 8 .-•• -. C'':' t.LS • r.,-. o·=· !6E. 'I .ar·c· _ .... ~·-·o 80€: ·o 98£: "06 880 "06 066! .. -.-. ·o i-02 ·o "296 ..... ·--a·-· .. a€.:=! f.E:6 'I .... c.•:-t:.c; -=-~ 9~2 ·o 822."0 L9S.a LE: 8tS . L.-S t:E;E. t Otl ·o !21 ·o S8€. .98 898 "98 L86t E.~o ·o. eGO ·o L::::9 . .. -. '·=· 98G . L8 986! ·t:-00 ·o ::::oo ~-o 9G1 D 8!2: 8Gl •. -,r. ·=··=· ~:361 (1(1(1 =o 0 (II) ·o 6.!8 ·e8 6Lt: "8E: t:-E:E. t 000 ·o 000 ·o 21 ~~ ·e:::: 21€: Q .-•• -. C••:• ::::861 000 ·o 000 ·o ,-.• -. I .::a..:ac;:. • ,!_:=: .-.. ,-.... .=..::~.:... a •·-· t::.C• e:=:.:.t 000 ·o 000 ·o !LO D .-.c. c.,.,_. !LO a:::::: !:36! 000 ·o 000 ·o 6E:~ "8L 6:3!; Q .-. ) . '=''-0 :=:6 'I ----------____ .._. _____ ---------- ----------3::t~3d3.:J.:Jia 3::t~-.13:::J 3.:l.:l I 11 3S:8::r 3S:8::t 3:S: 8:3: l~·BJ;:::I3d .l::t8d~H "' ...................... ·········· ...... l~3WADldW3 ~~3WW:::J3AD9 ..................... 3::~:~:, 1a:aa: t-·a .......................................................................... ~ ........... ... :S~01lJ3rOdd .lJ8dWI 3criM3lblS 13crD~ d~~ 6v ·a 318\fl
TABLE 8.51
~~c ~DDEL STATE~IDE IMPACT P~OJECTIONS: ·
... ~ ... 9 ·~ ... ··~··•·•+••••· ...................... ~ ............... ...
2.4 E:BBL CA:SE ...........................
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT-..................
II'1PACT PERCENT
BA:S:E CA:S:E CASE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE . ----------------------------------------
1'380 2 04 •. 44'3 204.44'3 0.000 0. 000·
1'?81 213.195 213.1'35 0.000 0.000
1 ";1:32 227 0 12':f 227. 12•? 0.000 0.000
1'3:::::~: 2~31~~ E.9'3 231 ~~ E,·;s·~ 0. 000 0.000
1984• 2~32o 71 (I 2:~:2.710 0.000 0.000
1985 234.7:34 2~:5.1E.4 0. ~:7•3 0. 1€.2
1 ·~:=:,; 241. 54:3 242~~574 l_g. i:i:31 0. 427
1 -;.::::7 256.718 25:3.754 2D o::::6 Oo 7•3:3
19:3.:3 274. 1E.1 276.044 1 B :::83 Ou 6!37
1 '?8'31 ~"'":'-=-·~,.~..,
'--' la.. • ._. ·-· ( 275o 24:3 2Q855 1. 048
1'?'?0 262. 4'~4 265.100 2.605 0. '3'?3
1'?'31 260.395 2E•3u !3'34 :3 o.4'3'3 1.344-
1 '3192 257.748 274.292 16.544 6. 41 '?
1'3'?:3 258. 040 2==: 1. 51'3 2:3.479 '?. 0'?·9
1'31'?4 25'3-. 26:3 271.844 1.:,· =-o-=-~e ·-•• ... •L... 4. 85::::
1'3'35 255. 5'31 . 2E:~. 2 08 1:3aE•16 C" .-•. - • .., ·-·.-.:·c.,.
19'36 25:3.602 2€.:=:. 4'3:3 14.8'31 5af:72
1qq-::o -· ... I 250.087 2E.E .. 52 0 1 E· o 42::3 E .. 571
1 '3'3:3 25:3.462 270.110 16.647 E .• 5E.:3
1'?'3'3 255. 42:3 271 a 5E,:3 16.14(1 6e:=!19
20.00 258. :=:21 27:3o :3E.5 15. 044 5o :=!12
2001 25E:. 755 272 . .:.26 13. :::71 5u361
2002 2E.O~~ 2:35 27::::. 2'35 1 :~:. 061 5. 01'?
2003 2610 :=::36 274.417 I 2a 5:=:2 4. :::05
2004 2€.::::~~ 724 27E•o 1:::6 12a4E•2 4o725
2005 2E·5. 7:3:3 .-, -, •;j .-, C a""\
C. f ~-·Iii C·-'•.=r 12.47'5 4.6'?4
2006 2€.7. 995 280.545 12.550 4. 68:3
2007 270.347 2~:2. '3'3' 1 12. f-44 4.677
2008 272. :::26 2:=:5., 572 12~ 74€, 4 .. E.72
2 00'31 275g266 288.115 12. f:4'? 4G 66:3
2010 277 8 :=:69 290.820 1 ·=· •:,C'-=-L._ D •" •.J &..,. 4. 6E.1
[
[
~~
f'
r
L
L
c
r,
I
l .. __ _
f-=
L
[
[
[
[
.. ,
'
:
L
t
L
::JURCE: t·1AP.MO.DEL :SIMULATIONS S:BAS:E:3:31'i A-l'iD OC:S.8:=:H--CREFtTEil 10/11.-·::2
r I t::;
B-54 L
ss -8 b;Oi.. "i' .::> 0 Sf. ·g T'3 0 E.::::. nt--n 09t.-·£;6LO T 0 !02 :=: l.L .. -. .::> L92 Q9"C•·~ 0 •3ft-·o T2T T 060 "'170 90 T 6002 C·-, J '-·C.:.... ., .::> E.E:.:!. 9E.G o:::t -~20 T r 00!.. "82t0 T :=:002 c-c· ·' ·-··-·~ . ('"· t::::t .::> a J ,-.,-. ~·=·..:::~ OE.t ·~::::e:o r 0 TO "E:t.-20 T !..002 ttl • 1-.::1 l·r-·C' .:::r.:J•-· 8f:L~ 028 "2b;90 r 09t.-"'17LO 0 r 9002 r~-· ·' a 1-0 2:3 •f.·~~ 08! • E:i.. t-0 r 098 ·e:o .:.,:. £;002 .::10:... "' t·=·) .. -. 209 • ::~ ·~£ 0 ::::g 0£180 r o::::r:. "E.t.-LE· tOO 2 ·-·.:.... "' ::::t:::: D.-. L:=:f: . T Cil-. 092 . !9!0 T Oi..S . E.E.~f. ::::002 .::> -· .::> f.::::o 119 b;6t .9Lf; 0 b;~. • s::::o (I r Of.i.. "29tf. 2002 :::E.~ tl9 so::: • b;O 9 02t ·~:::E.E. 0 !9 IJ ... __,.-.... t•C-C..· C• !002 !80 . L -,,-.. -. o ,-. I·•:, Ot.-9 8 L t E. E. OE.L . T92E· 0002 C-.::r•:• ::J .::t ... LE:L . L 28:~ 090l o :::: r . I I ) ·" ~.::.~~:-0'178 ·oLO f . E.E.E. r E.i..! G ,-, 2~·:;. . r .-. I Oi..O D LL 9E. T2t> "b;tE.8 ::::.: . .:. r ·=· ':.-~ -=' ·' ::r ·-·t:...'-· Q ::: tOO ·saL Ot.-E: .. t£.:?.FE. ~::::8 a v·;.,L:=: Lr£.6 l E:"Pb; . L !..L2 ·9·~9 02t-• t:E.VE . Ot-! • L2E:::: ·:;.f,f. t ::::::::o = j_ LlC ·o 29 o:::c . t-t:-t-6 000 . t2E:::: "b;66 T E.b; 0 "9 906 a ,L:::~ 06! • fit t-6 !82 aLL:=:::: pf.6 t E. E.:::: . r t fi29 .6E.E. 000 IIE .. ~LE· ~L::: •t.9LE: ::::E.f.! -, I,-. C-~.::r . ,-, ·=· 9-t:-2 ·r.t-L o::::::: "92-t.-E. z:::: T · ac:·~:=: 2E.E.l t2·j . ! -.r--r-"2-t:-! 2'3f; . !"268 Of:2. . E.L.t:=: tf.E. r . c•:.e, . t-! t . r L2.0 ca6E, -t= .-,-, ··~8t.::: !92 • 9E::=::=: 06E.! -•OC !6! . t ::::::::1 fiE: l t (~61 • o r.o o I 090 . "":"'-, ..... -C•=·t::•t::• 6:3.:.! Q}Cj ......... ·o 29L "OL 06t-"f8£;0 t 0 £:L ·c·~t-o r 8t:61 2.1;-6 ·o t 9-t:-G9E: Ot.-'31 • b;92.6 08! "6L 1 E. LE:6 t 9tfi ·o 0"82 . tt-9'310 ee:::o:3 £!~8 ·o6E.L 986! Q":l":l J ·-·-· ·o aoE: ··§ 1 f,2t' .L6tl ) -.,-. ._c.~ ·oe:v.::. b;861 000 ·o 000 ·o t2t • .• C·•':·. J t:• ._. ·-· '-12t-•t,f:::::L l:-86! 000 ·o 000 ·o :=• I,-, -·~C• "OOfL C• J C• .,;;;;:·~·-· ·oo::::L :~::=:E. 1 000 ·o 000 ·o ·r.o ::: . t:=:oL t-OS . t80L 2::::6 I 000 ·o 000 ·o r.t-t ·t ~s·;. t-t-t . !·-·•··::, !f:6! .::~..:> ... 000 ·o 000 ·o E.L9 · L~z·=.. 6L9 "Li;-29 os.:. r ---------------------------------------3;:1!-13o3.:l.:lia 3:]~~3d 3.:l.:l I I] 3:5:1:1:1 3:S:I:I:J 3:5:1::1:3: l~~3:Jd3d l:JI:Id~.J I ......................... $ 286! .:lO SI-IOI~liW .................... 31·l0:1~ I lt!J...IOS::::l3d 11::13:::1 _,... ............................... .. 3S:I::IJ la:::r::r" r.. 2 ................. ' .......................................... .. :S:~Dil?3f"Odd l:!i:ldl·l! 3ilif"''_?ll::llS l-3!!0l.J dYl·l 1S '"8 318'ifl
TABLE B. 52
~~? MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS:
·•~++~·••••++++•••·········· .. ··~·~
1qRn
1981
1982
1983
1984
1'?:::5
19::::6
1'3:=:7
1'?:=::3
19:3·~
1 '3'31 0
1 '3'31
1992
199:~:
1994
19'35
1 ·Sr·?E·
1997
1'?'?::~
1 ·;..·;..·;..
2000
2 001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
2 (I 0'3
2010
::c ·_; t::· ': E :
2. 4 E::E:BL CAS:E
~ ................ .
f':EAL PER CAPITA PER:SONrtL INCOME ................................................
E:AS:E CA:~E
1 I:" C"·-=··:. ·=·,:;
·-··-'·-· .. ·Ill L..-
1578'?.14-
1 rS :354 D 5:=:
16497.91
16369.10
16434.42
17105.03
1 :=:7:39 D :32
20424-.05
19267. 11
17464.90
17165.08
16909.10
16'~27. 52
169€.1. 31
1 E.:3:37. 07
16791.69
16668.90
16804.36
1 E.:375 v :;::3
17023.47
17046.08
17144.05
17245.21
1 7' :=:E. 0. :~:::::
17484.06
17615.34
17753o74
1 78'?:3. 6'3
1 :::: (1:3:3 0 7·~
1 :::1 :::·3. 23
1982 $ ........ ~
H1PACT
CASE
155:3·~ u 2E·
157:::·?. 14
16:354o 58
164'37 D '31
16369.10
1E.45:3u ::;::=:
17156.26
1:38:38 e :::3
20485.02
19386.09
17562.75
17316.30
17790.65
1 :=: (J:3 0. :=:7
17513.26
17500.62
17484.05
17409.11
17518.84
17533.30
17595.96
17547.10
17597.90
17669.91
17775.31
17892.30
18018.55
18151.91
1:3291. 46
1:3421. 7 0
18571.26
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
o. 0 0
0. 0 0
0.00
0. 0 0
0.00
2:3G ·;..1
-51. 2~:
99.02
E. 0. 98
11:3. ·?8
·37. E:5
151.22
:=::=:·1. 55
11-03. :36
551. '35·
E·E·3&-55
E.·~2~~ ~.::o
740.21
714.4:3
E,57. ·~ 1
572e 4•3
501.01
45::::.:35
424.70
414.98
408.24
403.21
:3·~:3., 17
:392o 76
·3:37. ·~ 1
:3:::2& 03
0. 00
0. 00
0. 00
0. (I 0
0. 00
0.15
0.30
0.5:3
0.30
0" E·2
0.56
0. !:::::
5e21
.-t:·~ r;: ••. _ • ..._
·:· ·=·~
•-' ID 1._...)
::::.94-
4. 12
4.44
4e25
.3o 90
~~= 0 :~:6
2a '34
c: 0 t.5
2.46
2 0 .;:·;.
2.,::::3
2.,29
2.24
2. 1 '?
2a 15
2. 1 (I
~~? MODEL :!~0LATIC~: SBASE83N 8ND JCS.S3H--CREATED
B-: 56
[
[
[
[
[
[~
"[
c·
r·
I
L
r
L
L
[
t
l~-
-'
[
{-_.::: --
~'
L
1 o..-11. 'l=:
~
L
2€: "t-se·t--:~:C!., t-08"f; 12. ·;t ":.It "'3 tzs·;. £:~as 60 •t . -.-, ,-. r:•t:• 1_1 o~ ·o H:: ·o oo·o-o:::-·o 22"0 -;,a ·o oo·o oo·o oo·o oo·o oo ·o 98"£;££! t2.""i:-8£t £0 "t1f;1 2t"9E:t-t £6"E:£tt .~L "92t1 eo·s~t-t L-t.o"L0£1 t2"t68l 09"0202 26"t:-O't'2 so·~102 08"06Ll £0"£2:::t -ct··a9t::'2 .-....L_ •• -.,. .-• ;:::. 17 --:.' J. .:,. 8L"29l L2"t2l L:~·t-Ot"ttt 10"lL o o ·o OJ) ·o 1)(1"0 oo ·c,·-o (I • o. L I ·sL-9..!.::: l~. t l2LE: .G9 "£969€: t l • 2.6£9:::: O.G"t-'2'29f t.l . £:9€:~::: E:r. • 90 fif;:~ 8:=: ·9st ~s S~ • 89E:P:::: E·L ·as9~E: 2f: ·::::o .Lt-:::: 9! • 0 ::::r.t-:::: "i:'t-"9Stt>f: 89"8f£t>8 tf .. 0::::-£.:::::::: ,-. J • , .. , ,-•• -. -, ,-. u.:... l.)r.,..•:..•=··:.· St: · .. 8•S~::::"t-t '26 "l E.t:-::::::. .:. .-. • I· t-· "=' ':I C· ,_, C• .= .:r ·-· •-· ·-· E:O • f:f;E:£.2 e:~ ·6 te:=:e e:o ··9aa6a 'I L . 96k;E:2 l~ •t:£;2L2 E:t; •to2L2 £6"6909::: 08"60t-.G:::: 16 "L£0 ~:::: ~t-"8tltS ££ "Li:-0 t-:::: 8! " 0 8L t:: t: z;:: ·.saT 8 :;:: 0 0 • E:..;La::: t--l ~~ L8Sa:::: SI •t.t:-S2:~: 0 E .• 8€.~2:::: 8t ·stta:::. t t • 9.P.::::2:::: L£".£9t2f 29. 2£:?.! f .-.~ II.&... T .-. ":l.-. :::1 •::. ... -.. IJ t;;;;• 1~ tL "66£::::t 2.E: • .LLSE::::: 88 "tE:!C'f ~L tl 'tE:2E.2 a~ ··e. t~:aa ao ·922E.a tl II%~E:2 !.G"££2.!2 8£ "!02.!2 0!0'2 6002 :=:002 L002 9002 £002 i:-002 t::002 2002 !002 0002 666! 8E.E. t .L66! 96E.! £66·t t66l 2E·6 t tf.::.,: 066! f,:?,6! 886! .!86! £E:6 't t.o:?.E. t !Sf, t 0861 33~3~3~~ra 33N3d3~~ra .UJ3:);:13d 3:S:I::IJ J.::ll::ldl.JI .................... :I; ef:6t .................................................... 31Bo -3::f-l:lfiJ l1::13::1 oOJ.:B:S: 31 S:l::l:3: ~ .................................... .... 3S:I::I:) la:::r:3: t ·a ........... ~·············~···········••++•• :SWOilJ3rDdd lJ~dWI 3ai~31~lS l3GOW dS~ ·ss·s 318'17'1 ,-'-
":"'l t ::;; · ! 1 /I) 1
'l
~J
~l
]
~]
J
]
.~1
d
]
]
]
J
]
'1
J
]
J
~::::.(I
~::: • I)
~:~. 0
s:~: ·o
·;.:::. 0
9:~:. 0
L€: ·o
L::: ao
L.::: ao
98"0
.2.2·o
€:;:::!"(1
L 1 • 0
l l • 0
90 ·o-
),-, a ,•,
.:..::-1.,1
~2"0
r.t. 0-
~1 ·o-
E:O 11 0
20"0
20"0
't 0 • 0
t! . 0
2!"0
10 ·o-
oo·o
oo·o
'1:>0. LE:
01. L8
E.~ 0 LE:
2i 0 6:::
.!0"06
8S-8
L9"t-9
l)f;"t>~
::::t-"Ot
16 ·ot
:::t"-t;-1-
,-,..1... a I,-. "r
::' v .:.::a "
Of:"E.S
88"!0!-
lt"t-f-
00 ·:=:t
~L·~
92 °92"
t-2"L2
oo·o
oo·o
02 "L2!S2 ·a2 "Oi>0~2
69"600S2. S9"226t2
ES"€68~2 S2"908t2
S~"8lLt2 tf"t69i72
L2"~99i72 96"9l~t2
0102
6002
8002
.!002
9002
89"0~f;i72 60"€9tt2 S002
92"6Stt-2 tl"OSSt2 t-002
6f"92Si72 22"9SC!t-2 8002
SL"612t2 2~"081t2 2002
SI"l80t-2 S8"000t2 1002
tt•€2It2 LL"8SOi72 0002
6.!"66682 62"St682 6661
92"L06€2 88"99882 8661
t6"L6LS2 SO"LSl€2 L661
02"98982 SE"OOLS2 966t
S€"LltS2. SO"BS€82 t661
18"19!82 69"89282 8661
Sf; 0 2l J €:2 86 · %1 E:2 2E·E· 1
81"StS€2 i>1"L2~82 1661
2L"8S682 86"2S682 0661
2!"88192 L0"98192
~6"l18t2 99"16Lt2
88"80882 09"18282
eL·2~922 L~·s~922
~2.9L~32 . ~2-9Lt22
t9"SS822 t9"SS822
.;!::;:6 t
·~E:E. t
oo·o oo~o gs·ast22 9S"Sf;t22 286t
oo·6 oo·o 9L"S9t-22 9l"S9i722 t861
oo·o oo·o LB"t2922 LB"t2922 0861
3J~3d3~~ra 3J~3~3~~ra 3S8J 3S8J 3SI::fa
l~3J~3d lJI::fdWI
...................
$ 2861 .................................................................
3ll::fo 391::fr·t tl::l3o ·oOl:•3:S: S:3JI ,·\o3S:
......... •++-++-++-+
3S8:' la:a::r t-• 2 ................................. ~ ..................................................... ..
:s~OilJ3rOdd l)~dWI 3ai~318lS l3ao~ db~
· vs·s 318'11
6£-8 t2 . 0-!2 . LL-LO . ! r·-:-· J c· 82 • E:2t-L::: ~·-·'-'-· 02 ·o-F. <:• -·-· (f2L-9t.-•esL9£~ r·.:;-.::~·-· .92E:9:~ 61 ·o-I9 ~89-€:E. "L9!9£ ~£ "98298 8! ·o-~··-· -·::. "t.-9-"V! ·E:6£;~:::: ,..., C·~ • J .... .::, .-. -=· ~.:::1-·~·-· L! ·o-S9"09-E.L ·€:20bif: "f;>i::'"-680£8 L.! ·o-00 . LS-'r· "v.Lvt--:::: ) .-. . ! ::: ~ t-:.:. "-..:::0 .:.....::o 91 ·o-.-. ·' ..::0<-0 :::.~-L.O ·o :::E.t:t: ~.-, CC• • £8E.t:::~ fit ·o-ll ·r~-Ji7 "1;>£,£::::£: ::n • 917~~.:~: ~! . 0-i-8 • 0£-9L ... ::~.';. 2: 2 ::: 09 ":=:t€.2::: 9! ·o-Cj -· ~'=' ·o s-t.-9 o L~:::as 6£ . 86:::2::: 9! ·o-so . !fi-I .• • 2-t:-::: t ::· 20 "1;>6::::! f .::..t• '?t ·o-J .~ '-c,. "6t.---. -· "E.t--8!8 o·=--• 66f:! f C-t:• ,__ fit • (1-89 • fit--·• I '=·~ "E.9:::o :~ 9t-"~ T E.O :~: ::::1 ·o-·-·'=' ·=-._. ·E,::::-9f, • :::6t:O:::: t--2 ·sst-Of l l ·o-t.-8 02:.::-00 ·e:2..:.f.2 t-·-· C• "09662 90 ·o-L! . L!-! .-. "£Lt-62 8€. "06t-E.2 <:• 11 ·o-91 ~:::::::-£6 •t-! 0 62 0 ! • E:t-0 62 ! ! ·o-06 ·o ::::-,::-=· . !8£82 .• I ··~!982 -··-· C•.::. fiO ·o-t.-6 fiE: 1-i::'L. • fi9 't :=:2 .-.Q C.• _. .6L tE:2 JO ·o-,~I •:...4.. A.-. . :,.-02 "09L.L.2 86 .89LL2 TO • (1-r-C~ -= --·a-I,-• 4..•:.-·9L:~.t2 20 • .-.• c· .• ::r t:·~·-L...•-· 2.0 ·o--£! •t-~:=: a ,• .• ~.I":: '=''='·-·e:...·-· 00 ~-vo:.::L2 !0 ·o-8::::01-J .-. '-C.· "!2.!L2 SloC2'tl2 -ro-·o-t-L" 2--,,-. <:-..::o ·o.t~·~2 92 • £:LG;'~2 00 ·o-8.8 ·o-~8 QSlE.gz 89 .... ) .:: ·-·-=r , '-'-'..::::11'-· 00 ·o-·-·::r .=•-· ·o-a·::: "E:Ofifi2 98 ·eo~~2 00 ·o 00 ·o ! ! ·e:v t ~2 !! • E:~ I fi2 00 ·o 00 ·o 00 ·:::t::::t-2 00 q :~:18~2 00 ·o 00 ·o Ofi • !£t-t2 n,--. !fii::'t--2 _:;, 00 ·o 00 ·o -,,-. C·-':1 II fi'39::;2 -.,-. C·.=:r "f;9·~f:2 00 ·o 00 ·o ...,_.._ C-•:.. Q t:3t:-:~:2 2:~:-. 69-t-£:2 -----------------------------_______ ....._ __ 3:Jl-.J3;::!3-.:i::l Ill 3J~Bo3.::1.::1 r 11 3S:I:i::r 3:S:l::l:t 3 :s: l:i ::r HJ3J::j3d L:t~L:HJI ........ $ .28E.J ~····························~ .311::1::1-3~}J:WI 11::13d oO.L:t3:S: lf...I3L.If...lo3,·\0~t ~········· 3S:I;;::t 1a::ra t · 2 .......................................... 0 !02 6002 E:OO 2 L.002 9002 ~002 t-002 f002 2002 !002 0002 666! :~:E. E.! LE.6! ·;:.£.E.! fi6E.! t-6E.! f66t 266! !66t OE.E.! E.:::E. t e::::E. t LE:E. t ·~E:E.! £;:=;€. t t86! :.::::::6! 286t !86! 086! : S.t·lO! .L:t3r-o:!f d .L:i::ldt-1 I 3:! II'EH~l: l3GD~.J ·:li:-,_ -ss·s3l8'71 ,, n
09 -8 ,-, ~~28/tt/01 Q3183~)--Hse·:JC aw~ ~S83S~8S SNDI1~,0~IS ,3GOw db~ J l ] l ] ] l . 1 ,_j -. l I ' J ] _j "J ] ] J J ] J "':' LO :~. 8! !Li:-"2.! 620 "2! tLS" n 6E.O.! 1 029"0! ::::ro·ot 20::! Q :=: J "::'•:::. 0 ... .:...·-· -· ._ !Of. 9 !O!"fl !L1"2 t-0:::: • 1 t·~:::: 0.0 862."0 892GQ soa·o. .LL!"O !60 ·o o::::o ·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo·o 0 ~9. L'~S t-! I • I 98 800"2ff I92."1;-2.8 8~t-. L t:::: 2-E.£"!!8 o L::: "·~o :::: ~:~:2 ozo t: 9'3't--a2E:2 E:LO ·;-·~2 :=t+> ·::, • ==' +.. :::> ·-· r _, -· r ·-· £0 l "f:E.t-09£"602. :::atE. ·v~ 28:::.!; t L r..o-:_-t;o 2-t-2"! ·o oo • o ooo·o -0 0 0 • 0 ooo·o ooo·o E.::::f;. 0 ::: t :::: £!2. ·Ens 2.0! "£6 t:::: o·-;.:=: D2t:2:::: 2~£: .. b;L2:::: t l E:. ::::a:::::: E:St9 .lL!:::::: LO L. LE:17::: t-2::: ., 2L~::: 929"680t-i:'£0 • I) 0 ::::t-Lt-8"!9lt 2t-f;Q9221:.' L£6"02.2-t.-E:£0 • £:0 t-t-i:'-t-I • 8 2. '3' t-962."2!!£ 2.£-t:-"T!Lt €:E.~o,LE .. tt-S£;l ll·999::: f;t:-0"6£9:::: L20 ·o::::Lt toT ·oo :32. E:!E:"Ot-82. t-0 L D g:;:82 ·E:39 IJ £;::::E.2 :=:o 1::' • 8f;O :~~ €"~2 aOL 1€: 0 !02 f,l)l)2 E:OO 2 L002 9002 £002. t-002 f-002. e:~:L · o 92::~ eo o 2 flf"9f;ff !002 LL t . ZE:t-:::: 0 00 2 ~E:t-a 1€,~::: -E.tSE, 1 LE.2 • €:0 L:::: :3E·E· t l t-' f; a f;LL :::: LE·E· t r"':'·r~ r·t • T 1-. •=.. C· Ca...::,:: T ~ ~ ·-· .. .;:;J ·-· ·-· -·· ·-· ·-· .. E.t-6 ·to:=::::: £E.f.t L.Sl"lf;E.:::: t-661 +::::6 • f;! 2t-266 t 922 • L8£: f::-t E. f.! 2!;;'3 °609-t:-Of.E. t ao r. ·r:.E.o £ £.8E.t E:O 8 • T 0 lt--E:E:6 t 126 • £~tot-9::::€. T ! £;:;: • 96 T 1::-£8f. t Sf;L • 99'3::: ;,:=:E. t :;t-o "£,~':;.:::: · :~:t:E. t -·3JJ.,f3d3::l.::! I I] 3J~-J3d3.::!.::! I I! li-J3:)d3d 3:S:l::l ::r l::rl::ld~H ................... $ 2861 ~0 S~DI11IW ~··································· S3rH.f3t\3d .lf..I:3Whta3.·\09 3l8l.S: 1B3d 18101 ................................... 3S:8:) 1::!8::3: t-"2. ............................................................................... :S~Of1J3r06d 1J8dWI 3ijf~318lS l3crOW dl::lW
2 ;;:: .. -I r .· 0 I iJ 3 .l.i::. 3 ':2·:·--..-i.:. ::: ' :. :<:: !J f-J!::' ~-~:::::; 3 S.l:;i :~ ·: S: r-i Q I 1 i:llr;t.JI :S: l3G Qt.. .;:~b : := :1 =: ;·.;:: : T9-8 1 .t·=· . 0-tlf: . E.-2-t:-:=: "00fi2 9fi1 ·o I,-. ':1 0 102 ..:...•--..:2'-· 99t • 0-2tL . I I-,-.. -. .-, ·Loge SLE. •8tfrC E-002 c..:,. c. fi.Lf; . 0-8~f; 't-1-S9E:. ·;. T f;2 82.6 ·ot:~2 ::::002 OOL ·o-1;-28 . .!1-f:ff; ·e:2£;2 e·:.r:2 .,~t-S2 L002 E::tE: • 0-Q':IC. . 12-~ r·r· • t-t-~2 ~C:E . .--•. c, .-. ':' '="002 ... ._ ..... -·.=~-~-· .::J•--900 . I-0 fi(l ·9z-8tt-'t'="fi2 e::t.t "06£2 £002 06I . I-2E:t . If-28~ •t;,8fz2 t-tL ·oa·~a i>002 968 . I-tn •Lt:--02£ ·o292 t-89 •etS92 8002 82'3 . I-t-£:::: "ft--E.E:8 • .!.£92 8t-L . 10.!2 2.002 c· ,,-, . r-L6fi . rs-6S:~ ·eo La 9£;6 •t-SL2 1002 ._ . ..::_.c. 2.£1 ·~ fi29 ·o 9-·=--t2E. ··::.·--)-, J.:S~C-E:V~ 'Ll82 0002 €:9t ·a-102 . lL-f !E . '6182 t-I ! . 16f:2 E·E·E· I 62::: ·2-L l f. t-:?.-200 .9682 E:t::: ·o:3E.2 f:66 I -;..---=w ·-·.:::1·-· . ::::--t-Of • 0 0 I-fi 1'fi • "PE: t.c t;.'t:;: • t-E:O f L€.61 ,-.,-. ·' ..::r..:::~.:_ ·£-808 "021-1::-20 ~9E.o::: a;::c: •9t2E: 9E.E. I E.:::c •t-to·~ 'tt-l-1·-· I • 92!2:::: -v·-··=· . 1 •. -. ,-. ~66I .::z~ .:~·-~-=--·:.-::J ,-.• -. '-·.::.C• •t,--089 ·c.:tt-e··-· .. I .cl t:'t •t:::~:;~ 8E:b; • .I,-.,-. C· "-.::I .:::1 ·-· t-66! t:::::::: . t 220 . lt-6.!1 • 18~:~: LSi .. .P:::~s E::E.E. 1 I to-E. ·o L€:0 .. -.. -. ~-~:. E:Z·3f ·~t-ki£: C!f,~ ·at~:::: 266! E-Z2 ·o ::r ........ Ill·=· l""t J ':I • T 1""1 ,-.c· E:92 a t~•L"" ..L., ,-. T .• -..... T ·-· ·-· ·-· ·-· v "'-'-· ... J .::1'-· C..'=• ,. .... •;.. ~t-r::•o ~ LLT ·o 891 . ·;. ·6:::8 ·et:t:-::: 122 .9Ll='8 0661 t-81 ·o t-Ot . ·;:. T.::,.-· ~.::> . f! :=: t-:~: LSi "6.! t,-::; E.86 T t-21 ·o t.a::: •t-fi ~I'"· Q ~E. t--::: 990 . 16-t:::: ::::=:E. I t:• •:.. :::21 ·o 8E.2 •t-c.r.,-. ._.-:, . .:;, ·8E:t::: Ot-2 "1;-E:t-::: Lf:E. I 2'30 ·o L2I . .., ·=· £LE . ·s9t-::: '32:3 .99t:::: 9SE.l €:20 ·o L.LL ·o f,C•r-· . Tt-t-E 218 • 0 t-t-f s::::E.! -·-·~ 000 ·o 000 ·o ~-r-.-. C..C.C• "t-11::-E e-~··t-, '-C.··=· • -;. 1 -;. :::: -t-861 000 ·o 000 ·o i:-90 • :::o t-2 t-90 • 80 tf 8861 000 ·o o·oo ·o T ,-.,-. . t~·~::: 1f;fi "1S9f 2::::6 T .::>""' 000 ·o 000 "i) LTf: "0962 L18 "0962 1::::61 000 ·o 000 ·o E.Tfi • fiO 0 2 6Tfi "£;002 OE:E. 1 ----------------------------------------3:)J...13:::!3.:l.:l Ill 3JrBd3.:1.:i I il 3:S:i::l~) 3S:I:i:l 3S:I:i:3: lr~3::.d3d l:li::ldl<II , ............................. .. $ ~861 ~0 S~Dilli~ ................................... ~ ............ ' ................ ... S3dnliar.J3&•:3 lJ..13Wf...lo3 ..... o~~ 3ll::ll:S: '"'H:/3:::~ ll::llDl .............................. 3:s:l::l:' la::r::r t-• 2 ·~··~·· .... ~~············~·············· : S f.JQ I l::t.3r-O.:::,d l :)8 d~·JI 311! !"'i=ll !:i l :: l311Gt·; .:::.:.• . . LS" 8 3l8'fl
] ]":':.:· · I I ...-o t 'l .] ] 3 ] J ] I ;_j ] ] ] '] ] J J J eo·t--02"t--'38. t--ss·t--!8"'17-s l . f.-s~-~-860£-9::: ··:.;-L·~ g9-e:=: a·~-~o·.tLt·L-8! "2-os·o-:;:::: Gl 0-~2 ao-62"0-st ·o-9o·o-oo·o 00"(1 (;9 -8 Ot"6~!t-8"f9!-n "E.9l-t>O • ::::::!-t! "26!-o:::•:::o:::-2J 0E,~2-r:.:::: "l:33-1L · t a:::-·68"00£-n ·:::r:::-E:2"6tt-6!3 a£2-~ t 0 l !.,.,.. 9£"02-oo ·o oo·o SE. "E.'::COt t0"02lt> 6'3 "t>l !to :31 "6S9t-St"t.LLt 2E. ··3~0~ ·:=taL g2i::'2~ 60"fi.Lt-fi ·~E. D t 0 lfi 02 a !:=:E,~ .t::: • E.o ·3·3 ·3L. lt.·;.·3 6L G~E~~.'3 Ofi"ttt.L :::9 • E.O t L ft "t.Lfit t>:::: "9'3'?t L t Bt-L.lt--·?::: • t--E.:::t .L~ • :::::::o £ ~.L D:3L!~ ;:::::: . 6 t I·:,. LO • f;:::r.·~ t-0 • t t-89 t (I • I) :::: ::: ·;t t I • ;:::::::::9 E.f, .. £GL ·;. :::::: . t t-::: 9 ·~o ·es tl so. t;:!t.L oro::: E.oo::: :::ooz L002 ·:,.o o::: £002 t>002 ::::ooa 2002 roo::: 0002 66E.t 8E.6t LE.6l 9E.6! fi6E.1 tE.E.I €:E.6 I !66! 06E.t 6:36! :38E.! .L:3E. t '3!3E.! ~:=:6 t oo·o oo·o zt·este at·eete ae6t oo·o oo·o L6"£St.L L6"SStL t86t oo·o oo·o tt"886t tr·::::::6t oe6r 3JN3d3~~Ia 3J~3d3~~Ia 3S8J 3S8J 3S8a . l~3Jd3d ~J8dWI ........... $ 286! ............................................. S3::11ll I tli•Gd:,::3 l!-.13~1o.~·::I3,'·,0~t 318l:S: 81 I d!:l::t ~3d 183::1 ....................................... 3S:I:IJ l::r::ra: to • 2 ......................................................... : :S:i--JO I lJ3r'Odd .i.Ji:l.:H·d 3,.II-i,.;3l!:U:S: l3GOL.l .:!'::!t·J as·a 3l8'tfl
l -~
"
r~
.-,
,.::··
l--
-,
l_.
r··
1-
L~
I
-·
r··-
L.-1
--,
L:--:1
r-----..
~-~
f
l .. :
[
i_~
Le
'-"
TAaLE 8.59 ·
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS: ................................... ~ ..................... ··--:--~._._ .................................. .
.'2.4 HBBL-CAS:E ...................................
REAL CDt1BHiE.D FUt-tDS BALANCE
~-............... <LA ............. " .. .0.-<1. ...... •-* ............
.. : .. _~:.'·.·.:-.. MILLIONS OF 1982 $C.
~-..... · ·-. --··--·
--~~~~--··-· .... ,...~~-~.,.~~--~.;....
BASE CASE
Il'1 F' ACT
CASE
PERCENT
DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
1980 2420.861 2420.861
1981 3475.185 3475.185
1982 4687.683 4687.683
1983 5023.308 ~023.308
1984 5346. 121 534-€ .• 121
1985 6173.5B5 6174.679
1'?:=:E. 7162. 925. 71E.7. 14-9·
1987 S322.921 9333.402
1988 9287.470 9303.050
1989 106~6.470 10630.850
1990 11405.320 11435.320
1991 11936.670 11975.410
1992 12242.040 12340.330
1933 12435.020 12592.110
1994 12411.750 12872.510
1995 12377.870 13422.710
1 9'~6 12527. 430
1 9 9 7 1 2 6 '94 . SE. 0
199:::: 12885.500
1 9';J9 13 02 0. 1 6 0
2000 13101.740
2001 13092.980
2 0 0 2 13 0 3'5'. 12 0
2003 12936. 2;90
2004 12756.220
2005 12553. 100
2006 12330.200
2007 12090.410
2008 11836.460
2009 11570.050
2 01 0 11 293. 50 (I
1 :3~42. 12 0
142E.6. 16.0
14E. 9:3. E. E. 0
15057.090
15344.630
15523.720
1564.5. 19 0
157 07. 3.4 0
15684.380
15631. 6'30
15553.210
15452.370
15332.330
15195.040
15043.310
0.000
0. 00 0
0. 0 0 0
0.000
0.000
1.094
4 D ?2:3
10.480
_15.582
24.379
30.000
38.738
98.297
157.090
460.762
1644.840
1314.687
1571.605
1813. 152
2036. '32':i
2242.886
2430.738
2606.062
2771. (l5 (I
2928. 164
3078.589
3223.011
336 1 • '9tf. 0
3495.871
3624. 99·E.
3749.808
0. 000
0. 000
0.000
0. (1(1(1
0. 000
0. 018
0.059 ,-, .. -,.-
.. •" J. C.t:•
o. 1 E. a
0.2SO
0.26:3
0. 325
0. 803
1. 2E.3
.:::.712
:::.441
10.494
12.3SO
14. 071
15.€.44
17.119
1:::. 565
19.9B6
21.421
22.955
24.525
26. 13'3
27.807
29.535
31.331
33.203
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N AND DCS.83H--CREATED 10/ll/82
B-63
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1 S85
196'E.
1987
1'?88
1·::..:>o ,,_,..,.
19'? 0
··1991
l"j•?2
1 '7'33
1'3''34
19'35
1 oq,:::_ -.,--·
1997
1'39E:
19'~9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
200€.
2007
200:3
2009
. 201 0
TABLE B. 6D
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS: .................. ~ .. -... ......... ~~-~~----~~--............... '
2.4 E:E:E:L CASE
~ ...................... ..
REHL PER CAP ITA COI"1E: I t·iED FUNDS E:ALANCE.
~··-+++++-++~··············~--~
1982 $
I!'1PACT F'ERCEt-iT
BASE CASE CASE DIFFEREt-!CE III FF£REHCE ----------------------------------------
6 021. 18 6021.18 0. 0 0 0. (II}
8375.67 8375.67 0. 0 0 0.00
10826.41 10826.41 0.00 Cr. 00
1 d _.,..«::'"' .-.r= ... J. ~· __ , .. 0 L: ._I 11351. 25 0. 0 0 0.00
11923.44 11 ·~23. 44 0. (I 0 .. 0.00
1 3.SE.:~:. 12 13554.64 -:3. 4'~ -0. 06
15332.82 153 o:?.. s2 -24. -o o -0. 16
17 03~ .. f,(l 16'387. 92 -4-8. 67· -0.29
18129.83 180'?2.11 -37.72 -0.21
20596.14 20526.57 -e.·?~ 57 -0. 34
2241So 82 22351.61 -64.20 -0. 2'31
2333:3.5(1 23243.68 -94.81 -0.41
23::::42. :.:::0 232"Et 0. 25 -552.05 -2.32
24003.33 23241.57 -761.76 -'3. 17
23714.42 23'~44. ~5 22'3c83 0.97
2362~ .. 26 24880.74 1·-,<= A ... ·~ c. ...)"'t G ~'-' 5. ::::1
::·~Q~f'l ~~ ·=•C: .·~ •:i"':r !"'' "7 1 r r .-. ~.-. ""' -----,_, -·-·-· "' ·-· , "-·-· ..,.. _, __ , . ._, ' J. c•r::•.:; 1:1 .j ;J '=l D -,';:-;
24142~~43 E'f.171. 29 2028.86 s. 40
24205. 9·~ 266 09. €.4 2403.65 9. ·~:;:
24222.70 27001.72 2779.02 11 .. 47
24 081. 45 27224 .. 58 314:3.13 13. (15
23922. 12 27416.69 3494.57 14. t:. 1
23623.52 27425 .. 45 38 01. 93 1 .: .• o·;. -
23238.76 27314.27 4075.51 17.54
22713.22 27031. ·?.:. 431E:. 73 19. 01
22150.92 26692.33 4~·41. 41 20.50
21559 .. 53 26307.25 4747.72 22G02
2 0'~45o 52: 25Q86.23 4';>4 (1. 69 23.59
2'0314. 83 25436. 5'3 ~512L 76 25.21
19676.53 249rS9. 41 5292.87 26.90
1902E:.37 244::::1 . 9-E. 5453.59 2:3. E-6
.:--:. --~ ~·.; -: ..
[
[
[
[
r~
[
[
[
r~
I
L
I'
L
[
[
[
l
[
L.
L
SOURCE: MHP' iiODEl S J t'\ULAT! OHS SBASE83N ftND DCS. 8·3H--CREATED 1 Cv 11 /8t
B-64. L
3S~J SJO AS SlJ~dWI 3lnlOS9~ ~0 NOSI~~dWOJ SNOI1J3PO~d lJ~dWI 1300W d~W J XION3dd~ · ,---
] J l J ] j -J ] ] I ~ . J ] ] : 1 J ] J J . --. -::---:-· .. -.-~--... -··~. ~-----·-' • -.·m. -:~:-~.:~-:::--:;;:>"":::-"'---.-;"'""'"~ ~------'~ .. ~ ~ --· -~-~ -,----... _,., ------
_j
_j
~_)
i_~
~"
Table C. 1.
Table C.2.
Table C.3.
Table C.4.
Table C.S.
Table C.6.
Table C~7~
Table C.8.
Table C.9~
Table C. 10.
Table C. 11.
Table C.12.
Table C.l3.
Table C. 14.
Table Co 15.
LIST OF APPENDIX C TABLES
Absolute Impacts: Total Population
Abso 1 ute Impa-cts: Basic Sector Emp Toyment .
Absolute Impacts: Services Sector Employment
Absolute Impacts: Government Employment
Absolute Impacts: Total Employment
Absolute Impacts: Real Personal Income
(Millions of 1982 $)
Absolute Impacts: Real Per Capita Personal Income (1982 $)
Absolute Impacts: Basic Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
Absolute Impacts: Services Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
Absolute Impacts: Government Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
Absolute Impacts: Total Real State Government Revenues
(Millions of 1982 $)
Absolute Impacts~ Total Real State Government Expenditures
(Millions of 1982 $) ·
Absolute Impacts: Real Per Capita State Government
Expenditures (1982 $)
Absolute Impacts: Real Combined Fund Balance
(Millions of 1982 $)
Absolute Impacts: Real Per Capita Combined Fund
Balance (1982 $)
C-3
] ~ J ] d ] J -J J J .. , c.J J ] 'J 'J ,] J J J
_j
' -~
~
~
-·
~ • ~·-.::..·~---~~: __ ,·~t-·.;.· . .___:, __ :·..:.~-~--------.<-~·---··__, ___ ~:·_·.:~·:·_:.:___· · ..... _____ .,.. . --·--~----·----~--~
TABLE C. 1.
;·1-=-=· r·1:"'1Til="' ·:::·-, ~T.:~.fT'rE IMPH-r·T PP.O 1Er":'TI0""1:'::: • J. _, ______ ·-•• --·.L!-_, ·. ·-'J ~,--..................................................................
1'?:=: 0
1'?81
1'?82
1'~8:3
1'?84
1·~85
19~:rS
1 ·~·=-.., .. ··-· (
198:3
19:=:'3
1 '?'?0
19'31
1 ·~c.s-=-.... ._
19'?:3
1"394
1995
19'?6
l q.~-.
•' .-(
1998
.19.9'?
2000
2001
2002
2 oo::::
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
2009
2010
ABSOLUTE IMPACT ..................................
TOTAL POPULATION ........................
THOUSAI'mS .................
1.2 BBBL
.~ BBBL 1.2 BBBL ROAD 2.4 BBBL
CASE REMOTE CONNECTED CASE
o. 000
0. 0 00
0. 0 00
0.000
0.000
o. :366
0. 702
0. 964·
1. :3 03
1. 94'?
2. 1 E.7
3.3'?0
5.746
·3., 5E.-6
·~ ·-:=:7:3
10.926
10.397
10.573
10.614
10.471
9.961
9.715
9e499
'3·., 5:36
9.650
·:;..-:31:3
:3 .. S~';.3
10.1:30
10. ::::75
1 o. 5.74
l0.77E·
CASE CASE
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0. 000
0., :3E.6
0. 804
1.525
1.946
.-, ----c:. e l:• ( .j
2. 4 00
:3.459
11.546
·1E·~~ :352
1 ~ ·j.:: .-.
.L ._. • ·-· ._. ·-·
15.:369
15. 2":.a5
15.67'3
15.7'54
15.545
14 e :~:'3:3
14 .. 2:::~7
1:3.'?20
1:3 D 9:~:6
14.0'?4
14.31'31
l4o571
14.836
15.111
15v 3'3:3
15e 6:3(1
o.ooo
0. 000
0.000
0 .. 000
O.DqO
0.366
0.804
1.525
1. '346
2 c 67:3
2.400
-~:a 45'3
11.546
16.f:52
15. :3E~ 0
15. ~.::6 '7
15. 2'35
158 E.79
15.754
15.545
14.:398
14. 2:=:7
1 "3D ·;..2 (I
13. ·~:36
14.094
14.:319
14.571
14. ==::36
15.111
15 D ::::·~::::
15., E.!30
0.000
0. 000
0. 000
o. 000
0. 000
0.366
1. 00:3
2.017
1 ·~·=-·~ . -· '---
2 c ·~3:3
2.804
~ ~~~ ~-,~~
16.391
2:=: D 7::::9
14:219
15 .. 57'3
17. 2'?1
1"3. 2::::3
20.054
20.115
1 q =--::-·::. .... ·-·· .._
.1 :E:. ~3'?7
1:3.507
1:3.391
!8.5'35
1:3.917
1'3.:300
1'3. 703
20.116
20.534
20. "?57
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N, OCS.83L~ OCS.83M~ OCS. ?~~.
~t;fi G=:.:. :;·;;~---::~E~T!:It 1 (t/11 ~ .. g2
C-5
---··-' -~~....._. _ _, _______ ._:__,.;:_, __ ..__....,.._,;_._ ... _ .. -~--·-····"'-·· ----.~·----....:..-. ____ __ ___ ;_ ... _-:_:....___..: ---~-"'--.. ·. .. ----· ':::._: .::_, ___ ;·.~----. __ ~~-··--·"-·
·-
TABLE C.2.
MR? MODEL STATEWIDE IMPRCT PROJECTIONS: -. . ......................................... ~
ABSOLUTE It1PF!CT ...............................
BASIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT ........................ * ........ .
THOUSANDS ................................
1.2 BBBL
. 6 BBBL_ 1. 2 BBBL F.: DAD
•::ASE REMOTE COt"il'iECTED
CA:S:E CFrS:E
2.4 BBBL
CA:~E
---~---------------- --------------------
19:31) 0. 0 00 0.000 0.000 o. 000
1';t81 0.000 0. 0 0 0 . 0.000 o. 000
l'~E:2 o. 000 0. 0 0 0 0.000 0.000
1':;tE:~: 0.000 0.000 0. CLI)O I). (II) (I
1984 0.000 0. 0 0 0 0.000 0.000
1 -:.•:::5 0.259-0~~259 0. 25':f o. 25'7
1·;.:36 o.-165 i:r.219 0.219 0~~ ::::27
1·~:::7 o. 2~:8 0.517 0.517 0.7'43
lq.:;..:;. -··-··-· Oo ::::67 0.610 0. 61 0 0.516
19S9 0. 708 0. 957 0.957 1 • 07 (I
1990 0.664 Oc €.:37 Oe 6:~:7 0.:::07
1991 1.4:38 1. :331 1.331 1. 401
t·:=t·:t -=· 2. 7€.3. . E.G E·72 . .. --~--. 9.906 ..... ·L.-t:• 8 ~· .. c.
1 •::t•=.t ·-=· .d ~-·:·.::. ~~0 2'~3 ::: .. 2'3:3 11.92:3 .L. -·· -···.J le ._ .. _ .. _,
1994 :3., 7::::5 .s. 1'3? 5. 197 4 ...,.-.. -
G ( c.b
1qqc-
._• o" ._1 4.090 5 .. o:=::3 5. 0:3:3 5. '3'47
1996 ~::: u ·~: ·~6 . 4 q77 o .,. I I 4 q77 o .,. I I .: ... 42E.
1 •:4•:'47 .. • ... I ~3D .394 4 ·~·:4-=· D o" ,.• 1-4 .::,q::;.
0 ...... -E ... 507
l·::r·::r·=· ...... ,_, .-. :.-,....,
-:.reo~ ( t' 4u75(1 4.750 6. :3'?4
1 '?'?'? .:::. 019 4. :~:7::: 4 II ~:::7:=: 5. '?E·4-
2000 2. 5:=:·~ :::: 8 :::: 1 ::: 3.t::1::: 5.:344
2 001 2.4:30 :~: 0 :3€.4 :3.,:364 4. 7'~7
2002 ~ ::·.; ·:. t.;..a ___ ,_. :=:D 1 E:6 :3o 1:=:6 4.515
2003 ·=-·jZ:::·~ ....... ~·-· .. · :;:" 1€·7 ::::It tE.? 4.374
2004 2 a 25:3 :3 .. 1 E.5 3.165 4. :3:37
2005 . 2 D 2E.~: :3D 172 ::::a 172 4.412
"2006 2.270 :3.1:31 3. 1:::1 4.441
2007 2o277 :.::. 1 '32 ·:::., 1'92 4.4?0
200::: 2 D 2:=:6 :~:. 205 :~:.205 4. 49'?
2009 2a 2'35 :3o217 :38 217 4 G 52 E.
2010 2.:304 :3~ 2:30 3.2:30 4. 55:3
,;,
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N~ OCS.83L, OCS.83M~ OCS.83P·
AMD.DCS.83H--CREATED 10/ll/82
C-6
[
[
l
[
t:
['
T~
[
r' I
' '---'
r
L
[
[
L
E
_[
r:
L
L
L
--,
-.;j
c3
_j
_;
~ .. -...:-~---· . ' -~--.:.:...--~~£:~:.::~:~::.: . .;.:.:..__~~-.-.:.--.:..-:.:........._~----~-: .. :. _____ :....__ __ ·_. ----......:.~---~ .. 0::..:...::2~:, .!." ~-~--·-: ~-~-.:_ __ ._, __ ~ .: ---~-----· ·-·-·· --.:.;...:..' • ....;:,.-~ •• 4.
TABLE C.3.
t·1AP 1>10ItEL ·s:T'1TEIJI I DE Jr'1PACT PRO.JECTIONS: ·
............................................................
8BSOLUTE IMPACT .....................
SERVICES SECTOR EMPLOYMENT .............................
THOUSAN!JS ...........................
1.2 E:BBL
• 6 BE:BL 1.2 BBBL F.: DAD 2. 4 BBBL
CA:S:E REMOTE CONI'iECTE!J CA:S:E
CASE CASE ----------------------------------------
1·?:::0 0. 000 0.000 0.000 o. 00(1
1'?81 o. 000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 ·=a·=-·=--r, ,., r. ,., 0.000 0. 000 0. (!(!(!
.L. -···-·'-·-·. ·-· ·-· v
1'?:3:3 o. 000 0.000 0:1)(1(1 0. 000
1 '?E:4 0.000 0.000 o.ooo 0.000
19:=:5 o. 117 0.117' 0. 117 0.117
1 '?=36 (I. 4'?9 o. 551 0.551 0. 65~:
19:37 0.643 o. 925 0.'?25 1. 171
19S:3 otl :;:27 1. 151 1. 151 1. 144
19:39 1. 06:3 1. 440 1. 44 0 1.. 5E:1
1'?'?0 1. 1'?'7 1. 313 1.·313 1. 4'?5
1991 1. 617 1. 700 1.700 1 • :::4 (I
1·~q·:;,
-· -· L-2.471 4. 490 4. 4'? 0 E .• 191
1993 4.0:37 7.000 7.000 ·~0 E.:35
1994 4 a 5tSi!: 7.451 7.451 5b51·::a
1'?'?5 4 ·~·-··=· 7 e :;::36 -, .-,.-.. -7 0 2'37 o -· C•t..... i C1 ·=·-.:·1::,
19'?6 4.710 E.G '3::::2 6 D 9:;:2 7o065
1 ·:a·:...,. -· -· ( 4o655 6a :::71 tSa:::71 :::.441
l":.i'~f: 4. 51:3 E .. 745 e .. 745 :::IJ €.70
1999 4tl ~:E.l E,e 524 -=· e 524 :::. e.o.:.
2000 4.052 E .• 1 0'? 6.109 ==; D 213
·. 2001 :3a :::21) 5. E.65 5.665 7 D 71'~
2002 3u 6(14 5.341 5 ... :341 7 D 31:3
200:3 :3.e 523 5.187 5s.1:37 7o052
2004 . :3. 488 5. 140 5. 140 E•a •;..€,:3
2005 3.497 5 .• 14':? 5.14'?· E•o 961
2006 :3.51:3 5.178 5ol78 7. 008
2007 3.545 5.215 5e215 (a 071
200:3 3 •. 574 C" .-.r::-.-. .J • .::.. .JO r: -~-=-,/0 _1 D .::_._10, 7. 141
200'3 ·:~:: E.05 5. 2'39· 5. 2'3'3 7.21:3
2010 :3. €.~:7 5.::::45 5 D :;:45 ( D 2:=:6
~.:·_;::_c ~: f·i~;:· '",1~LiEL ·:I MtJLP.i I ::t-~ S ·;:s~E~:3t'"~ q !Jt~~. '?.3L !r 'J·:~. e-:;:t-1 ~ oc·~. -:~ :~:~· ~
AND.OCS.83H--CREATED 10/11/82
,... ..,
~------~'-· -·-·-~·-·-···---·· ---·~-· -·-·-··-·--·~·-··---~···..._~~--·-:2;-'-'·:c·,..._;;.~~....c...-=-.:......C."""-'"--....:.C...:G-'"-·'d~:._,_:~ _.;.._:,o~"·'---·-'-·-·-......
•
TABLE C.4.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACt PROJECTIONS:
·~ ............................... ~ .... .
1'3'8 0
19:31
1 '3:32
~ .-.. ::,.-.
J. :::r·-··~
1 ·~84
1985
1'3:=:6
1987
1 '?8:3
1'38'?
19'?0
1991
1 ·~·~-:;. -· -· ~
1 '3'3:3
1994
1'395
1'3'36
1997
!•:.;r•34::~
1'?99
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
200'3.
2010
Ft.E:S:DLU_TE H1PACT ............................
GO'-.·'ERNMENT EMPLO'r'MENT
•••••••••••••••••••••
THOUSANDS ............
1 D 2 E:.E:.E:L
.6 BBBL 1.2 BB.E:L ~:DAD
CAS:E REt10TE COI'il"iECTED
CASE CAS:E ------------------------------
0.000 0.001) 0.000
0. 0 00 0.000. 0. 0 00
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0-.0 0 ij
0. 000 0. 000 0 •. 001}
0.003 0. (10:3 0.003
fl. 048 0.049 0. 04'3
0.074 0. 0'32 0. 0-;32
0. 1 02 0. 172 0.172
0.145 0.216 0. 2"16
0. 2 04 0. 27:3 . 0.2?:;:
0.210 0~~ 21E. 0. 21E.
0 D :.::55 Oa :3'5'1 0.391
0.612 1. 2'?6 1.296
0 0 ·~77 1. 690 1 a E.'3J 0
0. '?24 1. :3E.5 -1 ~~ :3.;:.5
0.947 1 ·=· 7':, a '-I .... 1 -=·"7·~ D '--I ...
o. :347 1. 240 1. 240
o. :3:35 1 ·=··=··::.. D ~I...,. •* 1 ·=··=oo~ 0 \.;..&;;.. e•
0. 802 1. 17.6 1. 176
0.745 1. O':;t4 1. o·~4
0.657 0. '?75 0 D '375
0.612 0. :::7:=: o., :=:73
Oo572 o. :321 0 0 :=:21
0.562 0.:::04 0 0:304
0.557 Oa797 0. 7'~7
0.556 0.795 0.795
0.556 Oo 7'35 0. 7'~5
0.;,57 o. 795 0.7'35
0.557 0.7'36 0. ?'3E.
0.558 0.797 0 B 7'?7
2. 4 E:E::BL
CA:S:E
----------
0.000
(1.000
0.000
0.00(1
0.000
0 .·(I 0:3
o. 052
0.121
o. 22:3
o. 204
0.303
Oa 25:3
0.447
1::=:70
2u :::::37
o., =:72
1.400
1. 4:35
1. 5:34
1 G 5E-9
1 6 4:3€.
1 ra ~35Er
1 -.. -.. -.
a C..;;;.::,
10 156
1. 112
1 • 1 0:3
1. 101
1 D 1 0:3
1 D 106
1.110
1.11:3
~
sou~cE: ~8P MODEL sr~~LATrc~~ ~pqsE8:3N~ ocs.83L~ a~s.s?~. :c:. ~3~.
l
[
n
[
I
['
[
[
f''
I
L
[
L
c
[
E .
c -~
r
L
I I . e
AND.DCS.:33H--CREATED 10/ll/82 r·
C-8 -
~
[
' I 1"
i
L
[
r"
l_
r--,,
l_
[
l
r I .
L~
,'-.
I
[
-~
Ll
~
[
f_
L
r
'•, t-
L
[.
l:: ~
L
. .. .. ---·----·--~·-·--. _____ ,_..:...._ __ ..:...,'"--. . ...... .
TABLE C.S~
MAP MODEL STATEWibE IMPACT PROJECTIONS~
.......................... ' ..... ' ' .... + .... ' .................... ..
ABSOLUTE IMPACT ................ ~ .......... ·-
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT ........... ' ........ .
THOUSANDS ...........................
1 . 2 E::E:E:L
.6 E:E:E:L 1.2 BE:E:L ROAD 2.4 BE:Bl
CA:S:E -F.:EI'lDTE Cmit·iECTED CASE
CA:S:E CA:S:E
1980 0.000 0.000 -0.000 0.000
1981 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 o.ooo o.ooo o.croo o.ooo
1985 0.379 0.379 0.379 0.379
1986 0.712 0.819 0.819 1.031
1'3E:7
1988
1989
1990
1991
1 .:a·::.·=· -· -· ......
1993
19'~4
19'515
1'~9E.
1'3197
1 ·;..·3:3
<f ·:r·::.·:.
J. -· -· -·
2000
2001 -
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
2009
2010
0.954
1 ~Q~ -~~~
1.916
2.067
·3o 2Ea5
5. 5'30
·~., ~::35
·~. 2.74
'3a~ ·~·36
'3o 052
:::G :::'36
:3. E·25
:::. 181
7. :;::;:E.
6. 90E.
E .• 4:=:6 o
6e :354
E.p :30:3
6e:;:17
6.344
E .. ~:7:3
6.416
6.457
E . ."4'3'~
1. 534
1. 93:3
2.E.1:3
·=· ·::r·=··::. L..oL:...'-&;.;.
::::.247
11.552
16.5:3:3
14.337
1:3a7:34
1 :~: 8 1 ::: :::
1:3. 104
12.724
12.07:;:
11. 021
1 0. 0 04
9.400
·:;.0 175
9. 1 0'3
'3. 118
9.154
·;.. 2 02
·3. 256
"3. :312
'?., ~:72
1.534
1. '33:3
2.€.1~:
·:. ·:. ·=· ·=-t._ II'-~'-
:3 .. 24 7
11.552
16. 5:=::3
14.:337
1:::: D 7:=:4
13.1:=:~!
13.104
12.724
12m 07:=:
11.021
10.004
9.400
"3·e 175
9.109
9o118
9.154
9.202
9.256
9.312
9.372
2. o::::6
1. :=:8:3
:,. ·=·C'C" ~. ·-··-·--· 2.605
~: •. 4'3';.
16.544
23.479
1 ~ eo~ ~-~u~
13.€-16
14.891
16o 4:::::3
16a E,4(
1E .• 140
15. 044
1:3., :371
1::::. 061
12, 5!32
12.462
12.475
12~~550
12. E·44
12.746
12.849
1 ·:· ·::.=-·=-'-D ,.• ._IL..,.
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N, OCS.83L, OCS.83M~ OCS.8?~·
AND.DCS.83H--CREATED 10/11/82
C-9
"J ] l j ~~] :_jl ] 'l Jj J ~] J J Ot-:> 28/tt/01 U3183dJ--H88"S~C UNO ~WS8"SJO '188"SJD '~883S8gS S~Dill:l1nWIS 13aOW d8W :3JdnOS L9:~ c.·:;.o·~ 6:3l 0 •;.£,~ -02:3 IJf,'?~ co '3 s :::~;c~ a:::::: ~ ·3o L 2~·;." t~:L } } '":I • •=tQ•=t a-.._ ·-· -· --· --· '30E .. L.:::f; f;29 • f. E. E. L30"66 62 t • ::::t-t-020"L8t-~::=::=: ·o ::::t-LLE·. t>2t-02:::: "6 tt-t>8! "tlt> £'3E .• E.O t-£08 ·~:(ItLoLL. nt.-O!t-"2ft' '30t'"£Lt-t--:3·3' 0::::2£ ~2'? D t~f; fi:::2 a L'~£ :~~6 ._::!·~~ '3 tO "£L£ ~0 '31. fi.L~ E.::::£ "t!£ ·3£1 ·::::::::r TTL"90T E.2! • ft-t-. 020 ",L:~t-02S"E.tt-t-:::I "t-tt £'?E." 60 t £0::: Q E:O 1::' LLL. t tt (I !t-"2::::t 90t'"£Lt ..&....•=••::. Q C·J,-· t-···-· -· ·-·'-·..:::1 ~:=:3 a~:~:?£ :::~E. ~~ 2·~~ E.::::£ "t t £ ":.!£ t • :::::::: t oe::::,.LL 2.2.2"£08 :?.tE."OOf t-L£"20f '3t2 "6 t~::: L :=:: '3 • f; .L ::: t:. :::(I 0 £ :=: ::: ::: :::: t' • t-::: :::: 20 r • '?2t E.L8. t-0 t-£-t-T • E.f2 T Lf • 9::::! ttr·o::: t!L"O£ 0!02 E.O 02 8002 L002 ·;.o o 2 £002 t>002 ::::ooa. 2002 !002 0002 6E.6 t LE.E. t ·;.E.E. t £E.E. t t6E.t SE.E. t t E.6 t 06E. t 68E.t 19t-"98 tt6"89 tt>6.89 t80"L8 L86t os~·tt £££"t8 £££"ts t69"92 986t 206"9! 206"9! 206"9! 206"9t £86! ooo·o ouo·o ooo·o ooo·o t86t ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o sa6t ooo·o ooo~ ooo·o ooo·o 286t ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o t86t ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o oa6t 3S!:IJ 3S!:IJ Q31J3~~DJ 1aaa t-"2 a~:~od 1:3::3::3: 2 " T 3SI:lJ 3101.-13::1 1:3::3:::£ 2. T •••••••••••••••••• $ 286t ~0 S~DI1,IW .................... 3WDJ~I 18~0Sd3d 183~ .......................... lJ!:IdJ..J I 3lrllOSa!:l 3:::::1-n 1:3: ::r ::r '3 • ............................................... ::5;J...IOilJ3rO::::Id lJ8d!.H -3tiTJ'"t:3l81: !3;:!0L·; ·:::!i:'l.oJ-·g·::J 318\:fl
TT-:J 28/[[~Gt cr3~~~=~--~~s-~JD crN8 ·~~8"SJO 'W€8"SJD '1€8"SJO ~~€83S8:3:S S~DI181nWIS 13GOW d8W :3J~nos :~:o ·a:.::;~ 9l. 2E.::: L t G :=:6::: !2-"fl)t-r.a·:.::ot 86"t-tt OL"t2t !0 "!(lfi E.t--a2L~ 1 E·. L~'3 8t-"t!L !2"01:'.! 9:::: "2E.9 •:: •:: • ~=-·=. ·=« --------· £E. at Sfi '=-'::: • ;::o ! I 8E .• 8! 1 86 "09 ao.-t.E. 8C. t~ oo·o 0 0 • 0 (I 0 • 0 oo·o (1(1"(1 L6. !82 (I! • ,?82 00 ·L:::L o2 ·so·~ +! "6L i:-9 • '30 t 00"2L 20 D :::::: oo·o 0 (I • 0 oo·o (I 0 • 0 oo·o 3SI:IJ 3S8J a3lJ3~~oJ 1aaa r.·2 a1:1o~ 1a::ra: 2 • r '::1':1 •. -~--':1 ·-··-· t,..=!-· Lt .. I82 0 t. !..82 L~"2.Lt-' r.t ·:::a~ LE·. t-·3~ 9:=: • s·:i~ !=-+-.: •• :, ·=· .-. ·-· ~· -···-·~ OO"L8L 02 "80'3 L2"ft-I t-t "6L t-'3 "'30! 60"€L 00"2.! T .-• ,-.-, .. o ·~··=·. oo ·o oo·o oo·o oo ·o oo·o 3:S:8J 3101-~3~ 1:3::3::3: 2 ° t ............... $. 286 t 9::::"!E.t 82"t-E.I 6t:-0 L€. t .t~· · oo a t::::. ;::1)2 !i>"L02 09"2!2 9.-t-·IE.::: ~.t·e~t 2! "80t-'3t "09t-..:,.-.Ill .-I •. .:J t:• ""-E. ::; • r :::: (1(1"0 oo·o oo·o oo·o oo·o 3SI::IJ 18:8::3: 9. .... ~ .................................. .. 3WOJ~I 18~0S~3d 1:11Idi:IJ.~3d 183~ .............................. 1::11:ldi-J I 311YlD:S::3:8 0!02. E.002 8002 L002 ·~(102 £;(1(12. t>002 :::o 0 2 2002 II_) 02 0002 .666 t ·866! LE.6 t .-. ~-•. -T ;::,c•o'" t>E.6 t €:E.6 t 266! I6E.! 0 6E.! E.:=:E.! 88E.! L_:36t 986! !86! 086! ....................................... + ...................................... ... :S~OilJ3~06~ iJ~dWI 3GIM3l81S ,3GDW d~W l __ , I ~J 1 J ~] ] -1 ) ·. J J
•
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
19:=:E.
19E:7
1'~:=::3
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1 ~Q~ J~l
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
.2008
2009
2010
TABLE C.8.
;·1H.F' r·10DEL :·TATEI .. !l DE I r'1:::'ACT P~:O.JECT I.Ori.S::
~ ...... ~ .............................. "":. ............... .t-••:--•-• .................. ..
AE::S:OLUTE I MF'FiC. T ......... ~ ................ ~ ............
BASIC SECTOR REAL WAGE RATE
.~ ......................................................... .
. 6 RE:E:L
CA:5:E
0.00
0.00
0.00 .o.oo.
o. 00
710 ~:::::
22. o·;.-
1-2a :3(1
:::~., '?6
74.,52
139.04
:3:=:7. Sf,
E.5E .• :~::::
1110.92
•:. C' ·::. ·=:t '7
.... ·-· .... D -· I
1131.61
1028.14
1102.45
1056.76
981.58
822.02
786.17
745.41
761.21
774.64
7C:E,. :;: 1
-,C{7 24 r· ~· I •
:::07 D :=:•S
::::t7.90
:=:::::1 "2'~
84 0 •. 76
19:::2 $ ................
1.2 E:BBL
REt10TE
CASE
0.00
0. 0 (I
0. 00
0.00
0. 00
71, :~::=:
::;::::. 46
E.9Q 95
25e ·:=to
104.57
114.27
:302.75
14E.!::. 52
1754.02
1225.14
1 :.=::=:5. 2E·
1472.42
15?E .. 75
14:::0. 5E.
1 :~:77. 2E·
1179.73
1040.88
1009.77
1032.05
1050.27
1066.32
1081.48
1095.74
1109.25
1127~E··;,.
1140.58
1.2 E:BBL
ROAD 2.4 BE:E:L
CONNECTED CASE
CASE
o.oo
0. 00
0. 00 o.oo
0.00
71. =:::3
:;::3., 4E.
69.95
25s ·~o
104.57
114.27
:3021175
146:3.52
1754.02
1225.14
1 :::::=:5 a 2€s
1472.42
15?E .. 75
14:::0.56
1::::77 ~~ 2E.
117'~. ?:;:
1040.88
1009.77
1032.05
1050.27
1066.32
1081.48
1095.74
1109.25
1127.69
1140.58
0. 00
o.oo
0. 00
0.00
0. 00
71 g :::::3
71.01
1~4.10
-1~~:::7
124.27
lE-2~~ 7:3
:31€ .. 45
207C:. ::::2
2:3E.:::. 1 2
1325.05
1790.30
2012.03
2104.92
2020.60
1891.24
1672.34
1507.47
1445.08
1426.75
145::: II ~~:~:
1486.42
1511.05
1534.21
1555QE:6
15:=::~: a 52
1 .:. o:;:. 23
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N, OCS.83L, OCS.83M~ OCS.2~~.
qN~ O~S.S?W--CRERTED 10/11/82
C-12
[
[
c
[
L:
r
'
b·~
['
r
f "-...--.----""
(
L
[
c
c
E
F
L
t
L
[
_ _j ·~28"SJO 'W€8"SJD '188"SJD ~we83S8ijS SWDI181nWIS 13aOW d~W :3JdnOS ':) .. ·9:3 :3t ·r.L 8I •. f.-L r·::. . It-(I !02 ·--t:· •. l t-O ... -. Q~ . *'L 9·:! ·vL t.-·::. . ti> E.O 02. r::.-=· ... -:. -0 t II .. C,a ~c·-rL. ~2-'PL. ·-··:. . It-8002. .:...•-· ..::1.· 6! 0 L::: . --'::' "t-L sa·· t-L io'Q . It-LO (12. :=.·-· .. t-=" -8) ,-• a a "t.L a a ··vL (1'3 . It' 9(1(12. .... .... o 6~ D L8 f::::: .. ·t.-L .-. . .., "i>L tL .. Ii> S002 ~lj J 2.t •t.8 -ps·f'.t i>~"t>L tL • tt> t-002 . LO • 0 E. 61) ··3l 61) ··3L t-2. • :~:to :::o 0 2. I·=-"E.::: !2 • I I !2. . ll ·=--·~ "2-t:-2.002. ·-· .:::...::.. ·-··-· ,-, I ·=-~ • 9::: tot ··~.::!_ tr ··~L ... -. .:....:. • ::: t-!002 ~:3 "t--9 ::::9 . :::~ .-.. :, '=-· -· g ·=··-· ·-·.::J !'3 ·a:::: 0002. 0~ "t--~ 02. . t£ 02." I£ ·::-~:: ··::-a t;.E.6 I 8tJ ·ov t--L . tt t-.L . It 0!3 ·o2 :3E.E. t tE. • (It ::: t "(It :=: t • (I to :::.:. a,-. ..., C.··=· .LE.6 I 8! "tt-6 t.-.• £::: E.t .. -.. ;:. .:::2•-· -t> .-. .:, . . I t '366! ·~t ·L~t t:::: • ::: -r. t.-·:· ·-· • :=:to 2~ • :::: t fiE.E. I OS ·.::..e: C2 . I '::'":' . T ····=· • , .. 1 != ..._.._ •.. -T ·-·~ ·-··-· • ·-••.:;.• ·-· V-=•C• J,. 88" tO t-t I •.t£-t I . L~-· 60 ·o I-::::E.E. I U· • t-::::-·~.: .. ··3 t-·~E. "9!-tot--·o 2.66I 00 .. 8t .• I t::•.::. ·:3 J· "I -·~ ·:=:! E.::: • 2. I tE.6 t 1:'~ .,~ .::0 ,-.. :, -=·-·· "fi 8'3 ·1-. ..::1 '3l ·o I 06E.! ~·j •t OL . t 0~ . t )'7} • 1-. 686I ·-·-· ~·-~ so . ..., LO "E . ~(I . 6 E . .L "fit :=:~~E.! ·=· 92. ··32 .LL "S2 ll. ··-"::1 .:1'-· 0 :~··::;·2 .:;!:3.:. t 'P-=' • •-r· 0 t ··~---;:, (I t ·sc tE . . :::·~ 98E.t ·-~·=-.::o·-g.2_ "2-~.t·a-,-. I .=r::.. ··':1-·-,-. I ·• '-r' ~~ ·=--~:3·6.! ... .__~-00 ·o OCi""O oo·o 0(1 ·o i>86t 00 ·o (t(l ·o (I (I ·o I) (I ·o :~:3E .. t 00 ·o 00 ·o 00 ·o 00 ·o a:=:.: .. r 00 ·o 00 ·o 00 "(! 00 ·o I::::6t 00 ·o 00 ·o 00 ·o 00 ·o 08t· t -------------------------------------3:s~:J ·3:5:1:.1:] 3SI::I::t Jl31J31-~I-JOJ 3~0W3d 3:S:I::IJ 1:Iff:3: t . .., tli::IO;::l 1:3::3::3: .., .. t 1:3:::!:::1 '3 ·. ·=· ·=· la:aa "':) ·-· • I ~ .......................................................... .. 3.l!:P:I ¥-t~f·i 11::13:~. dii.LJ3S ::i:3:J:T/·;·;E:i: ...... """~-· ............ ilo •• .LJb-::;:...iT :=J.J7lW:::;3:t ................... ~ ........... -.......................................... ,.. .......... ,....,.. ... ,.. .................. ......... : Sl-IG:L.lJ3nJ!:id Lit:k:MT 3IEIJ'!3:l:H:l.S: B::L:W-.:±l;s I .. ....
] 'i i I ,_J J ,] 'J ] ] J J t2 . .LL-E.::: ·aL-~9"09-00".L~-L.t ·y~-t-::: • 0 ~'36"0~~(I • 1£-L:::: ·6~:::·~ "~'P-L1"L1-91 ·::::::::-0 r:. ·o ::::-t6"ft-,-. I II,-, ·:·~ .:,.-~ 1 • t--'PLa2-::::=: II (t-~a ·o-oo·o l""llcol a 1•1 .. ·-· ·-· o o ·o o o ·o oo·o 3:S:I:lJ l::I::IH t-"2 v'I-:> ... -,II,-.. -._ .:...•=· .:1.:3 6:::. 6t-~O"Lt-at ·r:.::::-tt-• .t:::~:3'3 .. ·;.:~:~ LO ~~:::::::-OL.l2-2.2."01-1~·:::::::t-e 2-LOD2--:3f; tllo-sa·o-~o·o .-........... . '·'' .. ' ._, oo·o oo·o oo·o 3:S:I:IJ ti3l:J3~H-lO:J 111::10:::! l::r::r::r a · 1 6:3. E.t-£0"!..-t>-'3:::: •t-r.-LL "1t-2t-• .:.::::-£L. fi:::-fi'::S • c::::-oL·La-t-·?. L2-9:3. !~L2"01-·=.c::::. :~:-1~ ·::::-l0"2-:=:~ oo-~a·ooo ·o oo·o oo ·o oo·o 3:S:I::I:J 3.LOW3;~ l::r::r::r 2. 1 ....... $ 286! E.o OE.::::-E.E. ·o::::-'31 "62-LO "'32-0'3 "~2-~2af;2-.-•• -. D .-. -, .:J.::J .:::.·=·-:::~. !2-61}"6 t-!L"9!-0'?"!!-~o·eL'3 82.-. •;.:=:at-!..t"(l-f;::.!an-oo·o 00 oo oo·o oo·o oo·o 3:S:I::I:J l::r::r::r '?. ~ ........ ~+++++++-+++++ ....... +++ 311::1~ 391:lM ll:l3~ ~01J3S l~3W~~3A09 .......... ~ ......... . 0!02 6002 :::o 0 2 2.00·2 9002 . ~(I 02 t002 ::::ooa 2002 roo a 0002 666! :366! L66I '?66! ~6E.t t6E. I 26E. I 1:66I o.:.r:. r l8E.t •::+f:61 2S6I r:::s r lJI::IdW r 3lnlo:z~:~l:l +++++~+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++•• : sr-m r l::t3,-c:!:!d l:)f::ldL.li 311 r '':3HH ::: l3•1rJL.i di:-L·! ·oL·J 3lS'Ifl
St-J 28/lt/Ot U3~~3dJ--H€8"SJO a~~ • ::J:~e • :s:Jo • w:::::: • :s:Jo •l::::::: • s::ro • ~-~:::::::3s8::::s: s~-m r 18lrrw r :s l3,1D~J d8L-J : 3~~t.:lnc.E "t>t t. t9f :~o o · 2::::::: t92a"VC!8 8~t-.. L t:::: at:.fi • t r:::: 0 .::!,:3 a ·;.o :~ fi:::c a 20::: ~~~at62 9·::-~ .. a:=:z :=:LO • t-·~a 2-t-·::a. 2"t.'2 8LE. II "Pf; 2:::8. ~ t 2E.t-"ft 8t--'3. 6 2LV ·ot.! :::E.3 ·L_:31 L20 "t-::: t aL·:.a ·os t L~2"lL! 2L·;.t·L·3t ~LE. IIS'3 t 2L2 ···:,.·3 r LL'3 ·~"-·~! 2::: ~ •.• :~.'~ i s::::o • t·? t ftE. "9~! :3tt"t-::::t T ":1•.:. 01 c·•=t "·-· ... ·-· .. tt:::: ·t t "t>fL • t t 22t(l2t E·80 .6 aL·;.aL·3t ~LEJ o~·=.t t aL3 ··~·3 t lL'3 ° L9 t a::::G·o ,~:;.. t E.G::: • ~·3 t ·:=t:=:o -2::: t !2':.-.. :~:·3 LO.L .. E.:~: t-t-f"-t>t 'i>fL • t t 22t-"2t E.:~O • E. £·~-f, • ·;. LtO"t t-t-8"€ t-t€"8 2t2"t 2t2"t 2t2"t ooo ·o O(ii':l ·o ooo ·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o · ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o· ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 3:S:~:) 3S8J cr31J3~~oJ laaa r-·2 a8o~ la:~:~ 2 · t 3S8::t 3101.<13~ l:~:~::r 2 • t ~ ............................... . S 286! dO S~OilliW o·t o • :::::?. ·~~:t ·o:3 ·~2P. LL 62L.~L '3 r.r "2L 2!9 "6'3 0 !t-· -~·3 2t~"t9 Ott-"S9 !Lt ·:~9 !OL ·:~·3 20 'i> _. :?,t-6::.:·:::-• :::t-of;:;! 8 f;::: O~L "!2 Lt-0"9 ~~:::D-r 2E·E· 42 2"P2•t ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 3S8:) l:~::ra 9 • ....................................... S3n~3A3~ 1W3W~~3A09 3181S l83~ ll:llOl ............................ l:)l:ldW I 3lnlO:S::3:8 ............................................ (1!(12. 6002 ==:o 02 LOOZ 9002 9)02 t-002 ::::0(12 2002 tOO:?. 0002 E.f.f,! 8E·E· t L6E.t t-6E.! SE.6! 266t !66! 06E. t 2_:3E. t 9:3E.t ~8E.t i>'86t ~:8E.t 2:3s:. r t:36 t 086! : S"-m I 1J3rOd::i L::i!:kl~l I 3,j I l'l31!:!1S l3,!CL·l di:il·! "ll":l 3l9U'1 ' J l .I ~l • ' ~ j '~J r I J ,-1 ,_j
•
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1 ·~E:E.
1'?87
1'?::::=:
1989
1990
1991
1 QQ~ ~~~
l QQ~
~~~
1994
1 QQ~ ~~~
1996
1 QQ7 ~~·
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
. 2007
2008
2009
2010
TABLE C. 12.
M~~ MODEL STATEW~DE IMPACT. PPOJECTIDNS:
~~·~·····•••••••+•····-··• ... ++++++++
A:t:S:OLUTE IMPACT
.................................
TOTAL REAL STATE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES .................................. ~~··+++•+
• E. :t::t: E: L
CASE
0.000
o.ooo
0.000
0.000
0.000
(1., .777
1. 492
2-~ 07'~
2.::::57
4.200
4.636
7.018
11. 6~:6
t·S~. o·:q
1 •::& .:1. c:: ·-=·
o4 .,.• 8 T ·-··-i
18.086
15.546
14.031
12.496
11.085
'31. 572
:::e 5:31
7 CJ E.~:::o
7. (1:34
6.576
6.220
~ Q~Q ~-~~~
5.687
5.486
5.319
5. r::::o
MILLIONS OF 1982 $
++++++++++++++++++
1.2 BBBL
REMOTE
CASE
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.777
lo707
·:· ·;:.c-,
._. " "-·-· ,.
4 .-.c:' .-
0 C.--•t:•
5.800
5u 2:::4
7 a ::::42
2::::. ~:42
~:::::::. 51 '3
·:· ,... 1 ·:··:·
·-• • .. • D • ·-• ·-•
2E•o 5:32
2:~:. :~:?·~
21.168
18.849
16.715
14.527
1 ~ ~~~ c.rc~
11.372
10.444
9.744
9.197
:::0 748
::: IJ :~: 7 =::
:::., or:.:=:
7"11' ~=: 14
7. 5·:;r·~
1.2 BBBL
ROAD 2.4 BBBL
CONNECTED CASE
CASE
1).000 0.000
o. (1(1(1 o. 000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0. 0.0 0 0. 0 0 I)
0.777 0.777
1.707 ~.137
3.257 4.298
4. 256 4. ::::2'?
5.800 6.404
5. 2ff4 E.. 1 68
7. :~:42 :=:. (I 02
23.342 33.037
33.519 47.022
~n t~~ -t~~ ~~n
~Y·~~~ ~~~.u~v
26.532 -144.604
23.379 -120.808
21.168 -100.304
18.849 -84.317
16.715 -71.201
14.527 -60.625
12~725 -51.597
11.372 -43.854
10.444 -37.1r4
9.744 -31.182
9.197 -26.050
8.748 -21.626
=== R :=:7:3 -17. ~:24
::::., OE,::: -14., 55E:
7.:314 -1L742
7g5·;.·:,. -·~&~:14
~OURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N, DCS.83L~ OCS.83M~ OCS.E~~.
AND DCS.83H--CREATED 10/ll/82
C-16
r-
L
r l i
[
("" c L·
f'
t ....
L
c
f-
1
' k--..
(
1 '
L.
[
c
L
[
r '\, _ __;
L
r F-e=
'L...i
L
28/tt/Ot a3183~J--H88"SJO a~8 ·~€8"2~0 ~W88"SJO 'l88"SJO ~~883S8aS S~Dil~lnWIS l3crOW d~W :3JdnOS Oi:>'"E.f;t-t-8 ·:~:·:n!!"6-?t-L:f::o "SL I-io(l "£8t-~t"26t(18~802-ac·Lte-!3'3 a s:::2-at ~E.G2-..=. •j ~ .-. .-.. ·=· ---·-· ..::..:::.•-· !t"2t2-82"E,f::ot-22-"t-f-6:~ G~2.-6:~: -~2-St. L !-9s·oa-2t-"tt-9:::: •t,--oo·o oo~o oo ·o oo·o oo ·o 1 :::· 0 9€.-6:~ lf9E.-~~a96-z::: .9€.-l:S a-l6-l):~: ·:::r:.-e::::·oot-96"-t:-Ot-t-0 "2I t-£;.;·oat-t-£"92t-:3.::! ao:::t-08"621-02"t--ft-66"£0!-8'~ 0 't!t-PL. t2-E·9 a:S2-tG•lt-SS"Sl-tt"6-9~_:' t.--oo·o oo·o oo ·o. oo·o oo·o 3:5:8:} 3S~:J 113J.:)3J..JJ..JO::r ,aaa t-"2 a~o~ 1a:a:a 2·r 68 "9E.-t-::: ··~6....:. 't ::: ··3E.-E.:~ ··Ea6-~~ 8136-e8 a'36-'t f. i.E.-2:::: ·oo t-·:;..: .• t-0 t-~0"2ti~E."02tt'£. '32 t-:::L illo:::: I-o:3 "62t-02 "t-:::: I-6E."SOI-t-2.. l"2-It "6-oo·o oo·o oo·o oo·o oo·o 3:S:8:) E.l ·9·3-~L ·9·~L.L ··;t9-ea·~ a•::...:.--· ·-· ...... -· 20 "L.'3-a::: . .t·;.-. ,-.,-... -. ' ·:.·,=· .:a.::.-~fi ··a:=:-::::t-u 9:=:-:39 "E.:::-t-9. LE.-f.oi> =f.:::-E.V D e::!,:3-o :~: D ::::~-tE. "E.1-. t-f"L.t-:~:l. t I-9:::. t'-oo·o oo·o (I 0 • 0 oo·o oo·o 310L<l3;~ 3:5:~:) 1aaa a·t 1aaa g· . . 0!0~ f,(l(l2 8002 LOOe 901)2 £002 t-002 ::::o 0 2 2002 I002 0002 66f.t Lf.6I 966! ~E.E.t t-r::.E. t 2f.E. t tE.6 r 06E. t E.:::6 r L8E.t '?8E. t ~86t t-86! :::86 t !86t 086t ................................................. S3~nl.Ia~3dX3 1~3W~~3A09 3181S 81Id8J ~3d 1~3~ ........................... lJ~dW r 31rno:s::3:8 ·~······················~···~········ :S~OI1J3rOdd 1~8dWI 3crr~3L81S l3JOW d~~ ~£l"J 3l8Vl ~l I ] .-1 J i...:J 'J '.J . i -!
..,.
-· -----~--. -~ ~-~-----· _______ _....... __ ........___,_ -·---_____ .,.,_..,....._ .... "'"'·" -"J-----. . __ -_.,. __ _.; ---·· ·-·· "_c __ ,,_"'J"'.Z.·-~--'-----'-::;;,~-.,-,;:..:..-;.._;:;__,.;._:....;:.-.
~!ffi!EE cc. . i M. •
.MlfP l'fUITRL .~S:.T-'ALEWillE ::IMBKC:T ~FR:O:JEC:TTONS.:: -· . .
................... ~ ' i=l .... ~ 4 • t ~ ~ ..... 1 ' ( ' t ~ ' • ~1-........
:fH!So 1-I.,JT:E .:I MFRCT
.......................... i ., ••• •·.
__ REAL C:Dl'UUNED ~FUN:llS BALANC:E ............................... '; ...................... _ ........... . _. ___ . ,. ____ ...___ :-·--.
MILLTONS OF l98.2 $
1 .. 2 BBBL
.6 BBBL 1...2 BBBL ROAD 2. 4 E:E:E:L
CASE REI10TE CDNtfECTED CA:~:E
CASE CASE ----------------------------------------
l'?E!I~I 0.000 0. 000 0. 000 0. 000
1 ·:,.::: 1 0.000 0.000 0. (i(i(l (l.(l(ii)
1 ':il82 (1.000 0.000 o. 000 o. 000
l'~t:3 0. (1(!0 0. (1(1(1 0. (1(1(1 0. 000
19:=:4 0.000 0.000 ,·, .-. ,-. , .. ,
1..,1 • ·-· 1,..1 ,_, o. (ii)(i
1985 1.094 1.094 1. 0'34 1. 094
1986 3~223 . 3. 559 3.559 4.223
1'3'S7 f .. 0 04 8.258 8.258 1·0. 48 (I
1988 '9-. 875 13. '357 13.957 15. 5:::2
1989 15.:::36 21. :::71 21.::::71 24.379
1 '39 (I 2 o. 820 26.371 26.371 30.000
19'31 .-. '=t ""'":'"' -= .::. _ ..... J. ,_J 34.848 34.848 '3::::. 73::::
1 ·:;·:.. :· .... ./ L-45.301 74.602 '74.E.02 98.2:97
1'?93 70. 6'::15 116.2E:1 116.281 157.090
1'j'~4 90.66:::: 204.824 204.824 460.762
1'?95 1-1::::. 1 02 298.172 298.172 1044.840
1 '31 '3J f, 156.117 410.387 410.387 1314.687
1'~97 195.145 522.609 522. 6 o·;& 1571.605
1'?9B 234.004 E.32. 250 632. z5o 1:::13. 152
1999 271.859 737.6.68 737.668 2036.929
2 (I (I (I 3(16.551 836.637 :::36.637 2242~~ ::::::t.
2001 339.852 '32'3. 008 929.008 2430.738
2002 372. 070' 1017.477 1017.477 26 OE .• 062
2 (11)3 404.44'9 11 03. 71 :::: 1103.718 2771.050
2004 437.227 1188.085 11 ::::8. 085 2928.l64
2005 470.582 1270. 7E.':J 1270. 7f.9 307::::.589
2 (I 06 504.461 1351.703 1351.703 3223.011
2007' 538.906 1430.9(12 1430.902 3361.960
2008 573.879 15 o::::. 32:=: 150:::.328 :~:495. 871
2009 60':;il.375 15f::3. 933 1583.933 3E.24. 9'36
2010 6.45.375 1657.722 1657.722 3749.808
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SEASE83N~ DCS.83L~ OCS.83M, DCS.83R·
AliD OCS. 83H--CREATED 1 (V11 .r::::2
C-18
r.
L
r ...
~
r 'L
I . L
[
,[
c
,~_
I
' t
(·
L
c L
[
[
L
[:
,-:
.,___,
L
r t--= ~~
[
"l
_j
~
"~ j
,.-,
r··;
,-=?
l ~
-r'
·-·
~
r=-.;:_.....,.-"'
p
I •
u
~-
<,._.•
[:
I
I ~-
r. r
L:
n
L~•
19:::: (I
19::::1
1982
1':0:83
1984
1985
19:36
1'::?87
1988
198'~
1990
1'?91
1'?92
1993
l-QQ.;l. ... , .
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
20(10
2 001
2002
2003
2004
200S
200.0
2•)07
-20(18
2009
2010
TABLE C. i5.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS~
-·~p~----~~-· ···••••••t•+~~·········
AE:SOLUTE I r·1PACT
··~·~· ......... _
~REAL P~R CAPITA COMBINED FUNDS BALANCE
.~ .. 0 ............................ "' ............... "' ................. " • "' ••
-r-6 B33L
CASE
0. 0 0
0. (II)
o. 00
0. 00
(1.00
-8.49
-16..11
-21.29
-26.79
-47.01
-54.33
-95.97
-176.62
-301.20
-2:69.28
-261.82:
-170.96
-112. 06
-42.21
33.26
12.0. 36
192:.91
263. 02
322.91
'381.66
43~.20
49E.Q t·8
554u43
612.29
670.45
728.67
1992 $
..... "'. " ..
1.2 BBBL
REMOTE
1.2 BBBL
ROAD 2.4 BBBL
CGr'lt'iECTEit CASE
CASE CASE
0. 0 0
0. 00
(1. (li)
0. 0 (!
0. 0 0
-:=:. 49
-1 :=: .. 75
-36. 18
-41.45
-64.12
-53.66
-89.12
~382.24
-538.83
-295.92
-120.42
84.82
266.07
457.79
652.97
954.95
1 047. 8"l
1216.94
136.6.73
1507.63
1641.22
17E.9.13
1 8'511. 9:3
2009.75
2123.03
2231.41
0. 1)(1
0. 0 (1
0.00
0. !)0
.D. 00
-:=:. 4';1
-18.75
-36. 1 e
-41.45
-64. 12
-53.66
-89:. 12
-382~24
-538.83
-295 .. 92
-12CJ-.42
S4.82
2:66.07
457.79
6-52.97
854.95
1047.84
1216.5'4
1366.73
1507.63
1641.22
1769.13
18'311.93
2009.75
2123.03
2231.41
0. 0
0. (1
o. 0 0
0. 00
0.01)
-8.49
-24.00
~4::-:. 67
-37.72
-69.57
-64.20
-94.81
-552o05
-761.76
22:9.83
1254.48
1662 .. 39
2028.86
2403.65
2779.02:
3143. 13
3494.57
3801.93
4075.51
4318.73
4541.41
4747.72
4940.€.9
5121.76
5292.87
5453.59
SOURCE: MFIP t1DDEL SIMULATIOHS S3ASE831'!.• OCS. 83L, OCS. 83r1~ DCS. 83R·
AND DC$. 83H--CRE~TED 1 0/ll .... gz
C-19
~I J ] ] ~ .~ r [~ .· 02-J
L-0 3$~3 $30 ~0 Sl3~dWI 39~1N33~3d ~0 NOSI~~dW03 SNOI1J3PO~d 13~dWI l300W d~ 0 XION3dd~ J ~1 . I . J t) \~ l
'l z-a '""1 J 'l " ."' : t '~~ -~ -} ·~· J ] ] ' l ~--1 ~--, l I .} ~-, ,J i' 1 -I '-·-. .. . \ '~J 'l ,J -\ J'
_,
-"
-;
___,
"-" -,
~
_;-.il
'
' ~
Table 0.1.
Table 0.2.
Table 0 • .3.
Table 0.4.
Table 0.5.
Table 0.6.
Table 0.7.
Table 0.8.
Table 0.9.
Table D. 10.
Tab 1 e 0~ 11.
Table 0.12.
Table D. 13.
Table 0.14.
Table 0.15.
.-.. -~, _ ___:.;;.:: .. ' -~~:.~·". -"···-~ .. "''~-.-.. ~.:-..:..~---~ ....... _':"'.:~·:: -.r~-ci.:_;i;:,.~~::'.>:~:J,...
LJSI QF APPE:N:OlX 0 TABLES
Percent.age lmpa:cts: Total Population
Percent.age Impact_s: B.asic Secto.r Employment
Peorc.entage Impacts: Services Sector Emp 1 oyinent
Pe:rc.entage Impacts: Government Employment
Perce:ntage Impacts: Tot a 1 Emp 1 oyffient
Percentage Impacts: Rea 1 Persona 1 Income
(!vii 11 ions of 1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Real Per Capita Personal Income
(1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Basic Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Services Sector Real Wage Rate (1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Government Sector Real Wage Rate
(1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Total Real State Government Revenues
(Millions of 1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Total Real State Government
Expenditures (Millions of 1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Real Per Capita State Government
Expenditures (1982 $)
Percentage Impacts: Real Combined Fund Balance
(Millions of 1982 $) .
Percentage Impacts: Real Per Capita Combined Fund
Balance (1982 $)
0-3
'l .J ,J ' 1 ·~J .J J J '17-0
s-a .-~ T /(1 1 G3ll::l3:::iJ--H:::.;;:; •. : . .:::, :lr-.ii::l ;j€3"SJD ~W88"SJD ·~c JO ·~S83SI::IHS S~Dill::llnWIS l3QOw di::IW =~JdnO: t::::~. :::: a.:.r. It::: 2~t·s t t :::: . :::. -r-o:::-·:::: 2'f::'l a!~: l:3&L • ~-at-·~· 2 St9"2 i=' E.f; • 2 02.~"2 8tf;"2 ot~·a :::of; 0 2 22G.2 !09 "2 tE:6 ° 2 ~:~E·. 2 c·,-·-:;t a c· ._.:::;,._. ·-· f.t2"2 ·::.L•~ a 0 t-E.£; • 2 OL£;.2 0!~"2 80£.2 '=' '::' ,-.• '=' ·-··-··~ ·-· ..., .• .-.. .., •=· t::• •:• C· t.~E. "2 2E:E. ·e 1;-:~:E .• 2 s:::E, ·c C·•-·'::'1 oc· ·-.:::1·-· ·-· . 9 t :::.·. t E:E.L e t 1 E:L • t t9L"t LtL"1 ftL"t t2L. t tf:::·t pf,f,. t 110 • c Lt8 "1 61 t . t ~:·;.·~. 0 921;-"0 0 !02 E.002 8002 2.002 '3002 ~002 t-OO 2 f002 2002 tOO 2 0002 66€. t f;f.E.l tE.f.t f6E. t 266! !661 l)f,f.1 ·t--EL • 0 t~s·o OL~'(I 2Lt"O 6t~·o 088"0 etS"O 2.tt-• 0 o so :-o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 92.9'0 2l t-·o E.t~·o 0 ::::::: • 0 et:::: ·o 22.1 ·o o eo ·o 000 '(! -6861 o:::o ·o ooo ·o 000 • 0 ooo ·o ooo·o ooo·o 3:5:1::1:] l::r a: ::r t> • 2 3 S:l:!::l a31::13~~mJ at~o~ 1a::ra 2 • t o o o ·o o o o ·o oo o ·o o o o ·o 3S:I::I::I . 31m~ 3d 1::ra:a 2 · t ............................ ._,Dill::llndDd 11::1101 ....................... l:tl:i.::H<i I lH3:);:!3d t~2"0 . L61 ·o 0£!"0 080 • 0 ooo ·o 00 0 oo oo o ·o oo o ·o oo o ·o 3:5-I::IJ 1::ra::r -:;. • ~······· .. ~············· ... ~········· :S~OilJ3fD~d l31::1d~I 3ai~3l8lS.l3aC~ ~~~ "l"O 3l8U'l 986! f;f:61 t:36 t OE:6 t ) ' • I c--'1 I • J 'l . I .J . ~ --->.-,_.J
l :-} J ] ~] J ,-"1 j I ·~] . ) ·. 1 : 1 ) J ] .J J J 28/ll/01 cr31~36J--H88"SJO a~b ~6S8.SJO 'WS8"SJO 'lS8"SJO '~S83S8gs SNOI~8lnWIS l3aOW d8W :3JdnOS i:'8E. 0 9 086"9 096"9 If,C, a 9 t:a£€ .• 9 J99a2.. 96£"01 OL2 • n 0-t:-L"Ol tf:6 ° 6 --·.:. ) . ·' C· .. ·~ '-60 .L. E. 1 :::L t "91 8tL·o .L..L£ • 0 a:::t • o ooo ·o ooo·o ooo ·o 000 • 0 ooo ·o O.LE."t £LE· "i:' t€.6 "t tOO"f. £!0"£ 9:~:1) • f; f.,LI) "f; 1 I 1 • 9 80.L"fl f:E.O • 1 I £.!0"1 art· t . at:; ·o oo:::: ·o 9:::::: Q (I :::at ·o ooo·o .0 08.0 ooo.:o ooo·o ooo·o 3:s: ~::~::, 3SI:IJ a31J3~WOJ 1aaa t"2 cr~:~od 1a:~a 2 ·1 c·:..t: .• t-o.Lt:."t t66"t-t-OO"£ £10"£ 980"£ E.L.o • £ :360 "11 £.!0°1 2:~ t. 1 ar.::::·o oo:::·o 9:::s·o o o o oo ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 3:S:I:IJ 3..lDW3:~ 18:8::3: 2°1 ~i"~ • :::: Ert.'Q a:::: • 9~£:. :,:: :::t 1 "t L.tE. • t-o:~:t ·;. ,-. I •:. • ~-· .:a.::. -· :J ~·~q .... ,. .. -· .. -021 ° I o·;.o ·1 01£"0 :::·~;~: 0 0 OE.2. 0 88to0 ooo oo ooo·o oo o ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o 3:5:1:1_::1 la:a:::r 9 . ~··················~· . ~W3WA01dW3 ~OlJ3S JISI:Ia ............................ lJI:::IdW I l~·J3::1d3d 0 I02 6002 8002 L002 9002 £002 t-002 :~(II) 2 2002 1002 0002 6661 ::::€.6 t t-661 :~:66 t c66t !661 06E· t .:.:::6! Lt:E. l 9:::6! $t•••················· ..... ~+++•• .. •••• : :s:~-J or l"J 3r D·:::t·:i 1::1b :i•·j 1 3!JI p·J3l i::-1~-T3GCt·. ·=1::-~, ·z·o 3l8'if1
:.....:....~-·---· _...:_.~.:.;..::__;._ ·--~·:'-...;,:. ,,_;· ·· · . .:.:..::~2,.;~~:' '·~·":-·-; ~~,_.,~~~~2·.;:·::;·±;i!:;;;_~;;.:.::.o ~~~~~~~~;;J~~i~~·.; .. -::Ji.(~-:·f2.~·.il,~;Qt~·,::::k£-:;i~.:Zc.::_..;:~·:.),~::~·::~··:· ::·~·
,.-'·.~\
TABLE 0.3.
-·~>=tP •·JC!DEL S:TATEi..fiiiE Ii'iPACT PROJECTIOrfS': ..... ~ ....... ~·····~~ .............. .
PEJ;::CENT IMPACT ...... .,. ................ ...
~ERVICES SECTOR EMPLOYMENT .......... .,.~··············· ..
1. 2 BBBL
.6 BBBL 1. 2 BBBL F.: DAD 2.4 BBBL
CASE REt1DTE CO~iNECTEII CA:S:E
CA:5:E CASE ----------------------------------------
1'~80 0. 000 0. 000 0.000 0.000
1'3181 o. 000 0.000 0.000 o.ooo
19:32 0. 000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0. 000 0.000 0.000 o. 000
1'3184 IL 000 0.000 0.000 o.ooo
1'3:35 0.125 0.125 0 • .J. 25 0.125
1'31:36 0.513 0. 566 0. ~~6. 0.671
1 q•Y:7 .... _,, 1}. 61 (I Oa !37!3 0.:378 1.112
1'3:3:3 0.719 1. 0 01 1. 001 0.995
1989 0.'31:?. 1. 244 1. 244 1.::::65
1990 1. 060 1. 16 (I 1.160 1. :321
1991 1. 443 1. 517 1. 517 1. E-42
1 ·=t·::,·~ -· ... '-2.250 4. 1):3:3 . 4. 08:3 5.6:37
1'39:3 3. 703 E.l1 ~34:3 6o :~:43 :::. 777
1'3'34 4.096 Elo €."31 E .• E-'~ 1 4. '356
--" 1'3'?5 .-"f C"~·=-.. -~ ... ., 6.741 E.lt 706 ..,. 111 -• r •.::t '=' D ( ""t .L
1'396 4a :35:3 6.407 6.407 if,. 5:3 0
1'~q-:'!' ..... r 4.:346 6.414 E .• 414 7.::::::o
~~~ 1 '3':;.:=: 4.167 E·~~~ 22E. 6~~~226 -::. 004
199'3 ~:R '?80 5a '~54 5o '~54 ~ ·=·C'"C"
.. 8 ·-··-··-· r··,
-' 2000 :~: D E.:32 5. 4·75 5a475 7·a :3E,2
c.::__; 2001 "3. 4::::1 5. o:=:::: 50 o:::::: 6. ·;..::::3
2002 :3. 1'~:3 4117.:::2 4 8 7:~:2 ;;: .• 47'3
200:::: :=:G o:::o 4.5:36 4o 5:;:6 6. 1 E·6
2004 3.005 4.428 4.428 ~ q·~·-· ·-• ... -· ·=-'·· 2005 2o '~67 4. :36:3 4.:368 '5. '? 05
~ 2006 2a •;.37 4 .-.. -.. -. " ·=·.::.c. 4 ·-=··=-~ Ill ·-•1-.1.;. '5. :::50
L 2007· 2.910 4. 2:=:2 4 ·=·eo·=-5. :::o.; • '-'-' L..
200:3 2. :385 4 .·24:3 4.24:3 C" -:r--~
·-· 0 ( -=-·-·
200'? 2. :362 4.206 4.206 5 a r·~.:!
2010 2 0 .::: :~: :3 4.170 4.170 '5. ::.:A
l.-'
:DURCE: MAP MODEL SIMUL~T!CNS ?E~SE83N, DC:. ?3L• JCS.83M~ OCS.83R·
G ;~·of[i :·::. :· ~.'4--::·=~~,:.. 7~!; J !_~ .· 11 . .-:?-2
r D-7
__ _;_,_ ... ~.~· .... _.:...•----'--~'-"---·-·· ..... :.....::..~.:.::·"'.
TABLE 0.4.
··LO::F' r·HJDEL S:TATE!:..!!DE H1FRCT PRO._!ECTIDr·~s:: ...................................................................................... :
19::::0
19:31
19::::2
1·~:3:3
19:34
1'3185
1'?:=:6
1',31:37
1 '3:=::3
1'3!3'3
1'390
1991
1 ·~Cj·,j .. · .. ·~
1 9':;t:3
1994
1'3'35
of ·~·~.C J.;;".:='O
1 ·~C!.., -· -· (
1 •3•3:=~
1·;·;.::;,
2000
2,001
2002
200:3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2 (1(18
2009
2 01 0
PERCEI'iT IMPACT ...........................................
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT ............................ ~
L2 BBBL
• 6 l::E: BL 1. 2 BBBL F.: DAD
CA:S:E F.:ENDTE CONNECTED
CA:S:E CASE
2.4 BBBL
CASE
--------~------------------------------· -
0.000 0.000 0.000 -0. 000
o. 000 0.000 0.000 0.00(1
0.000 o. 000 OoOOO 0. 000
0. 000 0.000 (1.000 0.000
0. 000 0.00(1 0.000 0.000
0.004 0.004 (1.004 0.004
0.055 0.056 cr.· 056 0.059
0. OE:5 0. 106 o.-to6 0. 140
0. 116 (1,; 197 o. 197 0.256
0.162 0. 240 o. 240 Cr. 227'
0.226 0.:30:3 o":=:o3 0. 3:37
Oc 2_3:3 0. 245 0.245 0 .. 292
0.405 0. 445 0.445 0.509-
0.702 1. 48E. 1 .48E. 2.145
1. 123. 1. 942 1. '342 2~ e.:=:s
1 D (16:3 1.572 lo572 0.42'3 . .5 .-.~
.L B J. 1.1 ( 1.495 1 0 4':.15 1 D E.36
0.9'34 1. 455 1. 45.5 1.742
0. ·~85 1. 451) 1. 45 Cr lu868
0.945 1 0 :~::::.;:. 1 D :::::36 1 B :::50
og :37'3 1.2·:H 1 0 2'31 1. 753
0.774 1. 15 0 1. 15 0 le 5'?:3
Oa 72:3 1. 1):31 1.1):31 1.456
Oo E. 76 o. '370 0. ·~((I le :3Er7
0.665 0. 951 0.951 1. 316
0.660 o. ·;..4:=: o. 94:3 1.305
I) e 65::: o. '341 o. ·~41 . L303
1)'. 65:3 o. '?41) (I 0 940 1.305
0.658 I). '341 o. '341 1. 3 08
I) 0 65'j 0~ 941 o. ·~41 1.312
0.6E.O o. '?42 0.'342 1. 315
[
r·
r"
\ ,
l
r~
r ,.
L
[
('
'l
t.
r·
L
c L
. r~
t·
r ~~
r L
[
--f
,,
L___.
t
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS S:BASE83N, OCS.83L, OCS:.83M, OCS.~?=· r
~~DOS~. ?~H--C~E~TED 10~11~22 l
D-8 L
·-._ · "' •. · !-' ., '.J. ..::;~ ~ ~ ..:J -~ _. - -......-! •:.. .: -~ _, u · _. r--::-• ::: :. ·:= 0 :. :~ :. b ~-, :: :~ • ·: ::. ~ • l ::· .:· · ·: ·) C: ~ ~-~ ::: :3 := : ~ .;: : ~ ~ J G I l:.::; l r, ~-11 :. ~ 3 11 0 ~-: .:: ~ i·.: : 3 :; ·= ; -: : :: 2.L9•t=-LL';.. t· so:; ·t 6lO"fi T •::.c· a,-. .. -· ·-· .= l.L£ ~ ·;. a.t:::. ~ L2:::: 0£ 8£;::: Q t E.E.O • 6 6lt-"9 tt-;~: • ! f:6E·. 0 8t0 "l L:?-9 8 0 8E.L ·o L2t"O '29l • 0 ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o . ooo ·o ooo ·o . -. .-.. -... -. ·:·-=··:. •:. tot·::: '="lt ·::: lSt"S tf;t"f t-os·:::: 21'3 ·::: 99·:::. t· E: fi2 • 1:' 0 20 • £; Ot2"fi 002"£ 0 :::£; • £ 2E:t · t ) +,.':' • T .._,. ·-· ,. Lt::: ·o 6£6"0 fiOL"O LE.f;·m 0 2'9l"O ooo·o 000 :o o·oo · Q ooo·o 0 00.0 6-0 .-.. -, .-. . .-. ·:.··=··:.-•:.. :::: E. ::: • ::: . tot·:::: 9lt":~: t-fit"S t0£"f :::~2 ·v f:2.::!, o;. 02P"fi Ot2"fi 002"£ Lt:=:·o 6£6 ·o fiO L "0 .LE,f; a (I 29t ·o ooo ·o oo o ·o ooo ·o ooo·o o o o ·o 3:S:I:iJ 3S8J cr3~J3~~o::t 3:S:I:iJ 3.10l~3:::i 1a::r:r 2 ·t 1aaa t:-"2 a8o~ 1aa:a 2"t ~ .......... ... 1J../3Wl.Dldf..J3 11::1101 ........................ lJI::kHH ~~-B::td3d 9t::. 02. 2~:~: DC! !5£ ::: ·_? l9£·c LL:~ "2 et.~: e 2 LC'Pa2 .aE.t ·e €.99 "2 pf;:=:. 2 :=::o 2 ~~ €: 80 t:-·:~: L~fr. ~: tE.9~ II£~ I ) ,-. o ,-. ~tO.....:I .:,. E:3t"2 ._t~":' " T ... -·-· " t-0.!.."0 =~:.t ~ ·o eLf:· o ~E·2. 0 ~9l ·o ooo ·o · .00 0 G 0 ooo·o ooo ·o ooo ·o 3:S:I::I::t 1 8: :3: :3: ·~ e 0102 E.oo 2 8002 l002 ·::r002 £;002 t:-002 f:002 2002 !002 0002 €.66 T .L66l •;.66 1 fiE.E.! tE.t.l :::E.E. t 2E.E. t T C.,:;, T ~ ·-··-· to 0 E.f.J €.:::6! f;:3E.! t-:::E.t 28E. t t86! 0 :::E.t ........................... ~ ......................... . :SWDI~J3rOdd lJ~dWI 3ITIM31~1: ,3aOh ~~~ ·s·a 3lE'v'l C._.J -.J ·-j
------·'·~·---~'--=-'--.. --=_.~.___ ... _ --~~:.:. .. ~:::0: .. :~::,~~-,;~_-,L~-"·'~'"c: ... ~~2,:.ii.;,:~::j:~:·.:.:.:.i-;~:;: .. ~~~~~~~~~~-;~-~;~~~-~~k-#':.J-L~;:~~-:~ ,:·.;ib~;Gi~j~_f~li-:;g;:~ -:~:::s;J~:(~f!.~,&:;i;~ .. :.~ .2;~ ·.·· ... :.·~;/i,~:-~>;,~·s;•:,i;~:-:-~-=~~~~~~it~2t,.;qi;,
TABLE 0.6.
,. .
t·1AP t·10DEL :S:TATEI .• .IIIIE If'1F"ACT PPO._!E-CTIONS: ....................................... ~
1 '31:3 0
1 -?::: 1
1'3:32
1·~:3:~:
19:::4
19:35
1'~86
1987
1'38:3
1'38'3
1990
1991
1 QQ~ ~~~
1993
1994
1995
1996
l QQ~ ~~(
1 ·~9:3
19'?'3
2001)
20·01
2002
2 003
2004
2 (105
2006
2007
200:3
2009
2010
PEF.:CEr-n H1PA-CT
........................................
F.:EFtL PEF.:SOtiAL I f'iCOME-
+++••••••••••••••••~
. 6 E:.E:BL
CASE
0. 0 00
0.000
0. 000
0. 000
0.000
Os226
0.334
0.403
0.485
0.793
0.902
1.553
2.754
4.617
4a :3:=:•3
4.831
4a ::::55
4.393
4. 1'9'9
:3u '328
3. 447
-~=II 24:3
:~:. 026
2a967
2e '334
2., ·~18
2. 9 06
2a :3'96
•j .:;.::.~: ~ .. _ . ._ .. .;
2 8 :37:3
2a :=:€.:3
1.2 BBBL
REMOTE
CA:S:E
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Oa226
o. ;::-::ss
0. 6'~7
Oo 7:3•3
1.075
o. ·~27
1.517
5u '326
8.053
6. 4:34
6. 51'3
Elu :~:7:=:
6a472
6olf•7
C' ?7"':•
--1 e I I ·-•
5o 12:::::
4.6:35
4u :;:52
4er25:3
4.205
4.180
4. 1 E.2
4. 147
4u132
4.121
4.105
1.2 BBBL
ROAD 2.4 BBBL
CONNECTED CASE
CASE
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000 .... --·-.,.. l..f g c:c:. '='
(r G ~:j:i-5
(I 0 6'37
·o p .73'3
1.075
0.927
1~517
5a '326
8e 053
6.484
6u51'3
6a :37:3
6e472
Era 167
5a773
50 1 :3:=:
4a E.:35
4 0 :=:52
4 Ill 25::::
4.205
4. 180
4.162
4.147
4e 1:32
4.121
4.105
0. 000
0.000
0.000
0. 000
0.000
0.226
0.516
0.942
·1).676
1. 1'511
1. 114
1. 621
:::.572
11.39~
6.059
7.032
7 0 54:3
:::& 272
!31) 17'3-
7 0 7f:7
7. 081
6.493
6.089
5.848
5.781
5o751
5.741
t::" ...,.....,P'j
. .J.~-:J·.J
5D 72:3
5ofl8
5.705
[
r,
,~
\
L
['
L
c
[
r
I
L.-
[
L
[
c
F: l--~
rc
r '--'
[
.,...OitRr-·E· .. 1H-P MODEL .,...II'11JLH-TID"1 .,... ·:-·-r:·A-""E.-.. -.N or··:--.:,~.L 0,-.. ,. .. -.. -.M 0""'''"' -.-.~ , .. . ;,;. _ .. -· e 1· .:;. 11·::• -.::...S:.• ._;, C•·=• !I' _ .. .:;.. D 1-1 ·.:• ' J•.;:. o •:• .:_, ' 1d' . .;:. a C!,.;;"-:',
qNIJ OC:S:.83H--C0 EATED 10/ll/82 t2
D-10 [
~)
i
--~J
---=----:;
'·•
\
; =
---'--~
-'·------~----~----~-_:=·-__:_,·· • .:.--•• .:.-:.:~-r '-"'··••'-'-".w:&.. .. ~~.2.:;>.~~~ -~,:>;';::,·:=:· . .::_:·· y;,·:·;d !· ~.: .. ' ,(~:; .~..:i·~~:-.;~_:.''~'.Ci~--~ •·\....:.::.:___.:.c.-.~~-~;:_:_:., .·:_ ..... ::...:: . D .... -:': • ~ ~--~-•,;·~·:··,
•
TABLE 0.7.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS: .... ~ ............................ ~
19:30
1'31:::: 1
1·;.82
1·;:.::::::::
1'3184
1·~:35
1986 ..
19:37
19:3:3
1 ·~:3·3
1'390
1'3'31
1C!·~-=--· -· '-
1'39:3
1994
1995
1996
1 q·::.""" -· -· (
1'319:3
1999
2000
2001
2002
200:3
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
2009
2010
PERCENT IMPACT
++++++++++++++
-f<:EAL PER CAPITA PERSOtiAL I ~KOME ..................................... ~
. 6 E:.E:BL
CASE
0. 00
o. 00
0.00
0. 00
0.00
0. 15
0. 1!3
0.21
0.2:3
0.41
0.47
Oo 8!3
1.62
.-, ~--. c. •.. c.
2.41
2~ E.'3
.-, ·-:.·-· c.. -·-~
·=• ·':• A \-II ._,...,.
2 G 16
1. 94
1 0 5'3
1.44
1 e 2:::
1 ·=-·-=· g ._._.
1. 19
1. 17
1. 14
1. 11
1. 09
1. 06
-1. o~:
1.2 E:BBL
1.2 E:E:BL ROAD 2.4 BBE:L
REMOTE CONNECTED CASE
CAS~ CASE
o. 0 0
0. 0 0
o. 0 0
0. 0 0
0. 0 0
o. 15
0.22
0.:38
o. :36
0.55
o. 45
0. ::::::::
.3. 6 0
4. E-5"
:3.45
:~:. 4:3
.-, -.~ .;,. •· . .;. i
:~:&I :E:-·;.
:3. 11
2u :::I)
211 ·::::3
1. 9:3
1 ·"'::'•::0
o I '-'
1. 71
la E,5
1. E.1
lo57
1.54
1. 50
1. 47
1. 4:3
0.00
0.00
0. 0 0
o. 0 0
0. 0 0
0. 15
--o. 22
:I)D:3!3
0.::::6
0.55
0.45
1}. ~:::3
::::. E· 0
4.65
3.45
::::.4:3
::::. ::::7
:3. ~3·:,&
::::. 11
2. :=: 0
2. :;:::::
1. '3::::
1 a 7~::
1. 71
1. 65
1. 61
lu 57
1. 54
1. 50
1. 47
1. 4:3
0.00
0.00
o. 00
0.00
0.00
0.,15
o. ::::o
0.53
o.::::o
0.62
0.56
0. :=::3
5.21
-=·~~52
·3o 25
3.94
4.12
4.44
4.25
3.90
·:::. :36
2.94
2o E.5
2G 4t;,
2. ·;:·;..
·=· ·-=··:· !-a ·-•·-•
2.29
2.24
2.1'3
2.15
2.10
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N~ OCS.8:3l~ OCS.8:3M~ OCS.8?~•
AND DCS.8:3H--CREATED 10/ll/82
0-11
_._ --~-·.i. :::-
' ••• _ 0--.. _,_.._~ ... ~ .• , .~ ..••. :._:. ·r. --~~--·---· ~ ~--·...;.__.....,-4-.-.;·..:.....:...:~-~..:::~ .;: /·. =~~;~ .:;,.~· . .;,;.._•i:, ,:¥,c-·~. ·., ..... -~ •. .:...::.:..:... .• -;·,·.·.·: ') ;:-·~~-, L~ --~···---· ----_,.· . , _ _,:,.':.~.::~__,_:,:,::.,:__, -'~·-~;..._.__ ·,::;;_~~.::.:·:--~-~----
TABLE 0.8.
·1.:;;:· ··,JDEL. ::ThTEI..JIDE If'1FFTCT PROJECTIO~iS:
·-~ ............................ ~ ..................................... .
PERCENT IMPACT ...........................
f:A:S: I C SECTOR REFtL 1,..1Ft6E RATE ..............................
1. 2 E:E:BL
.6 E:BBL 1. 2 E:BBL F~DAD 2.4 BBBL
CASE ~:EMOTE CDNI'iECTED CA:S:E
Ct=t:S:E eA:S:E -------------------~ --------------------
1 '?:3 0 0. 00 0.0(1 o. 00 o.oo
1 '?81 0. 0 I) 0. 0 0 f)~ 0 (I 0. 0 (1
1 ·=-·-~·=-.. ·'':J~ (1. (II) 0. 0 (I o.oo. 0.00
1 ·;t83 0. 00 (1. 0 0 o. 00 o.oo
1984 0.00 o. (I (I 0 •. 00 0.00
19:=:5 0.24 o. 24 1). 24 0.24
1986 Cr. 07 0. 12 o. 12 0.22
1 •:SO-=' -· ·-· ( 0. (1:3 o. 1 a o. '1 :3 o. 30
1 '?:3:3 0. 01 0.06 0 .• OE· -0.00
1989 IL 1':_l Oa26 o. 26 0.31
1'3190 0. 4:3 o. ::::5 o. ::::5 0.50
199i 1. 05 0.95 ....• -.1::' .-.. ~,:::._
I.J D ::'·-· ·-·. ;;--;;-
1 0::,·~·:. ........ "-2. OE. 4.61 4.61 E .. 52
t•::(·;j·';:·
,..• o' ·-• 3Q45 5.45 5.45 r. ~.::e.
1'394 ·=· •=f"? '-D o• f :=: B 7::: ::::"' 7::: 4.0'3
1'j•j5 :3D 50 4c28 4 ·= .. =· tJ .._._. 5 .. 5:3
19'?6 ::::ol7 4.54 4.54 E .. 21
1 .:,.:;,..,. .... ( ·::· ·:·a::· ·-•e ·-••-• 4.S4 4. f:4 6.46
1 ·:.·:.·=· ..... ··-· ::::0 25 4.55 4.55 Era 21
1 ·~·3·3 :3. 01 4 :.·:-
G J.-•-'
4 .... ,-,
0 .:_.:,; 5., :=:o
2000 2.,51 ~:.6(1 3.60 5.11
2001 ·j ..... ,...,
r-. o ·:J r· :.:::. 14 3 .. 14 4o55
2002 .-•• -,'"'=' b.. 0· ~oJ 3.02 3b02 4 ·-··::>
0 -~a;;.
2003 ·j ·j.P
'-•'-'=' 3.06 .3. 06 4 ·=-~· ll J-·..J
2004 2. 2:3 ·~: D 0:3 :;:a (1:3 4.2:3
2005 ·:. ·=-.:, '-o. 8 bo• ::::. 1 0 :3. 1 0 4.::.:2
2006 2.30 3o12 :;:. 12 4.:35
2007 2. :30 3ol3 :;: 0 1 :'E: 4. :;,::3
2008 2.31 :~: D 13 ::::D 1:3 4 ·:: .. :, " _, -·
2 009 2a ::;::3 :3a 1 E• :3.16 4.44
2010 ·:-.-.--.
,_ 0 ·=·.:, ::::. 16 3.16 4.44
D-12
~=~?C~: M~P.MQDEL SIMULATIONS SB~SE83N, JCS.S3L, JC~.83~·
~ , · ~-~ -,... :. : .~ __ .-= = .:. T;:: n , ,., --' 1 1 ...-~=~ :=·
[
[
r
r
[
L
r L
[
r-
' f !'..,_
[
[
r
c
c;
c:
c
L
r u
~ -. ,... "' ··-. L L: i-.:. • • .. • .. · -
.. '---~""--... _._.~;;~~-:-.-. · · · ~~:-,. · ,; ;" · .; : ... :.~,~~;;:.i:;:·ii.:';..~:£::; :;2.::::.~~~,.t;~·.<:-:i4-",;:):~~~i1-~~~f~·kJ;~j~~~Vi,:{4:§¥ ';~,1~.~ .. ~~ ::-~~ · . ·~y;;;o-~~:; · >-' ·-~~::-:>·::·;;;::::..;;:.::.:;;:_;;··: C~··L.t:··~\t~~;~~~_::~~~-;~-;~~:t:)·~~}~~~-·.~"/::\•·._;~:}i.;:~1J:.::::.~~-};;,
J
c~
' .....,
...;.;
...
TABLE 0.9.
~~P MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT-PROJECTIONS:
·~·· "' .................... -.................................. "'"' ................. .
PERCEt·iT I MF'ACT .................................
:S:ER'·..'ICES SECTOR· REAL l•.lrtGE RFtTE ........................................................
1. 2 BE:BL
.6 BBBL 1. 2 BBBL POAD 2.4 BBBL
CA:S:E REI'1DTE CONNECTED CASE
CAS:E CAS:E ------------------------------ ----------
19:?. 0 0~ 00 o. 0 0 0.00 0.00
1'381 o. 00 o. 0 0 0. 0 (I 0.00
t·~:=:2 0.00 0. 0 I) 0. 00 0.00
1 ·;.::::3 0. 00 0. 0 0 0. 00 0.00
1984 o. 00 0. 0 0 0. 0 0 0.00
1·~:::5 -0. 01 . -0. 01 -0.01 =0. 01
19:?.6 0. 1 0 0~ 11 a. 11 0.12
1'3!=!7 o. 0'3· 0. 1 0 (I~ 1 (1. 0. 11
·l '3:3:=: 0. 06 0. 0:3 0.03 0. 01
1·~:=:·~ . 0. 02 o. 01 0 •. 01 0.02
19'30 0. 04 o. 02 0.02 0.02
19'31" 0·. 05 0.08 0. 08 0. o:::
1'~'32 0. 00 -0.07 -0. "07 -0. 15
1":.1'3:3 -0.04 -0.25 . -0.25 -0~44
1'3'34 -0.05 o. 01 o. 01 0.25
1995 I). 06 0.21 0.21 0. f.7
1 ·~·:;.E. 0. 05 Ou 15 .-, i c: =-0 II 06 ·-· ·-.&. ·-·
1 '3'37 I). 1 0 0. 17 0. 1 7' 0.17
. 1 '3'3:3 0. 09 0. 17 0. 17 0. 17
1'3'3'3 0. 11 0.21 o. 21 0 D 2~3
2000 0.14 0.24 0.24 Ou27
2001 o. 18 Oo ~:2 0 .. ~:2 o. :~:6
2002 0. 18 Oo :3.2 Oe ::::2 0. ~:7
200:~: 0. 18 0.31 0. :~: 1 Oa :37
2004 0. 17 0.:31 0.31 Oo :;:(
2005 0.17 0. 30 0. ::::(I 0.36
2006 0. 17 0. :3 0 o. 30 0.36
2007 o. 17 o. :3 0 o. :3 0 0.35
200:=: 0.17 o. 30 Oo ~:0 0.35
2009 0.17 0.:30 0. 30 0.35
2010 0.17 0 •. 3 (I 0. 30 0.35
SOURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N, DCS.83L~ OCS.83M! OCS.S2P!
AND OCS:.83H--CREATED 10/11/82
D-13
d·---·---'-<."'o.' ::··_::__;...:·,:.:· -,, ...•. ~: __ ·.~,-:f.:..:-:._:_:.~ .... i-~.-:..:-~J~~ ·--~·: ··:_y. ··.'· ·. _.,___..;__,~· -· .:.-.-~·:.:_..:._-!.:.:.. ~--;~·"_.~::_·:.~·-· .. ---·--' . ----~· -~ ..... ~-
19:3 0
19::"::1
1 ·~c··=· 0 • t-tL;..
1 ·:,·-··-=· .. ·~·j
1 ·:.·-·.A -· 0.,.
1985
1986
l'?E:7
1'3E::3
1"38'Ef
1990
19'31
1992
1 0:,•::,.0:• -· ... ·-·
19'?4
1 ~;~~s
l'~'?E.
1':,.::,-:o
-· -· I
1'::,.::,·-· -· .. ·0
1999
2~100
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TABLE 0.10.
MAP MODEL ST~TEWIDE IMPACT ~ROJECTIONS:
··~·····~··~·~·····~~ .............. .
PEF.:CEN_T IMPACT
+-+++-..........................
;;Q'o..'ERt"iMEtiT S:ECTOR F.:E-AL I.·.IFH3E RATE .................................. ~ .......
1. 2 E:BBL
. E. B1H:L 1.2 BBBL F.: DAD 2.4 BBBL
CA:S:E F.:EMDTE' CONt·iECTED CASE
CA:SE CASE ----------------------------------------
0. 00 o. 0 0 0.00 0.00 o. 00 0. 0 0 o. 0 0 0.0(1
0. 00 o. 0 0 o. 0 0 0.00
0" 00 0. 0 0 o. 0 (I 0.00 o. 00 0. 00 o. 00 0. 00
-0.00 -0.00 -I~ •. 00 -0. 00
-0.00 -0.00 -0. 00. -0.00
-0.00 -0.01 -0. 01 -(r. 01
-1). 01 -0. 01 ' -0.01 -0. 01
-(1, 01 -0. 01 -0. 01 -0. 02
-0. 01 -0.01 -0. 01 -1), 01
-0. 01 -0. 01 -(1.1)1 -0. 01
-0. 02 -0.04 -0. 04 -0. 05
-0.04 -0.08 -o·. o:::: -0. 11
-0. 06 -0. 1 0 -0. 10 -0.11 .-. . ... _ ... .-. ,..,,-, ---0. 0'3 = 0. OE. -l.,t • I .. IJ.:t -,_. 0 ·-· :7
-0. 07 -0. 1 0 -0.10 -0.11
-0.07 -0.11 -0.11 -0.1:=:
-0.0:3 -0.12 -0.12 -0. 15
-0.08 -0.12 -0. 12 -0. 16
-0.0:3 -0.12 -0. 12 -0. 16
-0. 0:3 -0.12 -0.12 -0. 16
-0.08 -0. 11 -0.11 -0. 15
-0. 08 -0. 11 -o. 11 -0. 15
-o. oa -0.12 -0.12 -0.1E.
-0. 08 -0.12 -0. 12 -0. 17
-0.0'3 -0.13 -0. 13 -1:.017
-0.09 -0.13 =0. 13 -0. 18
-0.10 -0.14 -0.14 -0. 1'3
-0.10 -0.14 -o. 14 -0.20
-0 .. 1(1 -0.15 -o. 15 -0.21
[
r
r
r·
"· '
r
{_'
1
\.
[
r
f
I
'\..~
[
L
[
c
c c
('
[
L
·-·OIIF.·-·E· "1-P' MOrEL .-.IMIILH-TIO"'·"' ·-·E·H-·::-·E·-··-·N 01-.. -.. -.. -.L o-.. -. .-.-.M o----~ (. :::. -._I_ • ,. H f .:::. -11·~ .::-. I ·-=· ·=··~· ' _ . .:: ... ·=··=· !l 1_.:::. II.=: . .:. !t 1_:.:;: II ::::.::-..· ~ . -
~ND OCS.83H--CREATED 10/11/82 L
D-14 L
::-;_.::~ •• ;.:.·: •. ·-.··· ---··· ·~--""0•·7·"~-.~ •• -. 2.0::::·::::1 96:::.21 12.t-"2! 620.21 t.t~ ·n E.60 • I! 02'~. 01 8!0"0! 202 o::: L2·;t • L ~66"9 ro::: ·9 IO!"ft 80:::. f; Il!"2 t-O:E:"t 'I·:;.:::: • 0 €:62"0 892·o .~02. I) 'I E.O • 0 I) 80 • 0 ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 000.0 000.0 SI-0 E.t:9. ·~ :::Lt Cl 9 ~t:f; Q f; E.E:CII~ 0 E.O. ~ t>~6"t> ~99"t ~9t-"t> ~92"t ~LO"t 2t6"0 L2f"O ~~2 ·o tt-2"0 26 t ·o 9:~:t·o SLO"O 0 t::O • 0 ooo ·o ooo·o ·O o o ·o 0 0 J}-" 0 000.0 --· i-r -~ .-.. '-E::::o a·~ ..... :.,-... -. ... -~·.= -~ 060 ·~ t-~6"tf;t:::·t-~lO"t 82f; ·::: 2t-::::·:::: _... ":=':~· • n --·---~.;2 ·o ~t-2 ·o 26t ·o 9:::: r ·o ~LO"O o t::o · o ooo·o o o o ·o ooo·o o o o ·o ooo·o i;-0 0 • t. .-.-, I II-, .::a·=·"-•.:. Lf;f. .· 2 La:::: ~~a t-02"2 890"2 8!6.! o::::::·r tt:-:::,111 ~~·;.L_ at t:::9. t ·t-~9. t :~:L2 ° 1 tO 1. t a~:::·o 9!f;"O 0 !£: 110 f;!2."0 9L t ·o E.2. t • 0 260"0 L.90"0 o::::o·o 000"13 oo o ·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo·o 3S8J cr3lJ3~~oJ 3:S:8J 3lm·Bd 1::ra::r 2·r 35:1::1 ::r l::ra:a 9· laaa t-"2 cr8oo 1aaa 2·r .......................... ~ ..................... ; ................... ... S3m..t3,·\3o 1f-.l3WNd3/·,0!:I .3181S: ll:I3::J ll:tlOl .................. ~ .......... . l::!l::ldW I 1~3:~:13d Ol'Oc· 6002 8002 . L002 '3002 ~002 "t:-002 £:002 2002. !002 0002 f,f.f. t :::66! LE.f. t 966! SE.f.! t6E· t ::::6€. t 2E.6! T .::.:,: T p ·-··-· '!' OE.E.l .E.:3f.1 E:E:f,! L:::E.l 9861 ~8E· I t.-E:E·! 28E.t ! E:E. t (1:361 ........................... ~···~··········· :S~DilJ3rOdd lJ8dWI 3QIM3lb!S l3aD~ c~~ ~u·a 3l8'11'1
~~-.•. .:.:: ::_f~L~.~:.:e.=· ... '-'.·~i;:i.:,:-:1.;£i•:,:~~~~~i~~;i;;i,~-:2~.;-·>· .. ·f.,."}~{·~ n ;·:>·.-k:,··::·:~ )'.:;:<;{:· .. : :;··k_.:-~--~?'~i(~~:~c~~~.:.:,~_._:-:-~ ~: .:~~;;,: .. ~· :£.?;:';~~ i:..~.:~·~··--~-· <-~ .. ~~-_-__ -· .--.:.::.: .. ~.---..:.-.• ~--.. ~-,.,.,:. .. _
TABLE 0.12.
··;;;=· r·iGDEL S.TiiTEwlDE PlF'ACT. F'F.'O._iECT.IOnS:
................................................ ' ............. +-++· .
F'ERCEt'iT I ~1PACT .............................
TOTAL REAL STATE GOVERNMEfiT E:x:PENDITURES
........... ..,........ ... .," • eo; • • • • • • • • • • ... • "'"' • •+-• • • ..... •·
1.2 BBBL
.6 E:BBL 1. 2 BBBL f:::OAD 2.4 BBBL.
CA:~E REI'1DTE CONNECTED CAS:E
CASE CASE ---------------------------------~------
1980 0. 00 0 Oo (1(10 0.000 o. 000
1':;t:;:: 1 Oo 000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1•3:=:2 o. (100 1}. 0 0 0 0.000 0.000
1 '3::c3 . o. 0 00 0.000 o.ooo o. 000
19:34 0. 000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1'3E:5 o. 023 o. 02:3 0. 02~: o. 02:3
1 '3:36 0.043 0. 04'3 0-:-04'3 0.062
1'3':37 0. 06 (1 o. 0'3:3 0.093 0.123
1 ·=-·~·-· .,··-··~ 0. 082 o. 122 Oa122 0.124
19::::·? o. 121 o. 167 0.167 0.1:34
1990 0.13:3 0.152 0.152 0.177
1991 o. 201 o. 21 0 0.~10 (1. 229·
1·~·~·=· -· -· o.;. o. :3~31 0. E.rS5 0.665 0.941
1'3'?:3 0.540 0. '?4:3 01! 94::: 1. :::::31
1994 o. 54·7 o. :::47 0.:::47 -4. :352.
1995 0.536 Oa {:=:7 0 G 7:37 -4. 2:3'?
i99f. 0. 4:?.:::: o. 727 0,727 -3.755
1 C~·::....,. -· -· ( 0.455 0 . .:.:::6 0. 6:36 -~:. 252
1 '3'?8 0.41'3 o. 632 Oa 6:32 -·::. o·=··~ L.. 0 ·-·~.,-
19'319 I) o· :~:8:~: Oo 57:3 Oa 57:3 ....,215 46:3
2 (1(11) 0.:340 ~1.516 0. 51 E. -2. 152
2001 0.310 0.462 0.462 -1 D :::7:~:
2002 Oa 2:32 o. 421 0.421 -1.623
21)0:3 0.265 o. :39:3 l)u :39:3 --1 D :3'36
2004 0.251 Oa :372 0 a :372 -1.190
2005 0.240 0'!355 0.355 -1.006
2006 Oc231 0.:341 0.341 -=I) 0 84~:
2007 (r. 223 Oa ::::29 0. 32'3 -0.700
2008 0.217 1). :31'? 1L31'3 -0.575
200'3. 0.211 (i.:;:l(l 0.:;:10 -0.466
2010 o. 206 I). :3 0:3 0.31):3 -o.:;:?l
:JURCE: MAP MODEL SIMULATIONS :S:BASE83N~ OCS.83L, OCS.83M~
Q~D QC:.83H--CRE8TED 10/11/92
D-16
:;·.-:.,:.:::::.._:.~:~Z-..:.-L~;,_~~,~~..;;i.:..~--:.=.... r
r
[
c
['
L
[
([
ocs: II ·~ :.=:;• q
r-
1
I
'L-
r-' L\
L
[
L
{:. ·-
7
[.
[
L
( -
t:J
L
r-~
r''
L,. •. "'
I_.
r·--·
l>
I .
L;
C":\
l
r~
.__.
r ::
l_~
i ...
r·.
i
!-:
c""
r----:_
i
:...,~
_: ___ , __ ;___~-~ ... ~-·-----__ : ____ ,__._;_ __ ..:_,_, _______ ..:. __ .. -··. ___ .. -~--:_:~ .:;.', -~-----~_,__., ___ ·--~--~---~--------: ... _.: ___ -------·--
TABLE D. 13.
MAP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTIONS:
............... ~••++++++ ............... .
PEF.:CEt"H ·IMPACT ............................ ~ .· REAL PER CRPITR STATE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ... .. .................... "' .......... "' ............. ~ . ~ ........ .
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1 qoe JU~
19E:6
1 -::,·:·-:> -·Vf
1988
1989
1990
1991
1 0::,Q~ ~~~
1 ·=4·~-=· -· -· ·-·
1994
1 *3''3'5
1'?96
1 ·~·~...,. -· -· (
199:3
1999
2000
2001
2002
200:3
2004
2005
200E. ·
·2007
2008
2009
2010
.6 BBBL
CA:SE
o.oo
0. 0 I)
0. 00
0.00·
0.00
-0. 06
-0.11
-.0. 14
-0.17
-0.26
-0. 2'?
-0. 4E.
-0. 7E:
-1.28
-1 ·':!:j .. -·~
-1.52
-1.47
-1., s::::
-1.54
-1. D 5:3
-1. 4E.
-1.44
-1.41
-1.42
-1.44
-1.47
-1. 4'?
-1.51
-1.54
-1.;56
-1 . 5:3
1. 2 E:BBL
F.: EMOTE
CASE
OaOO
o. 0 0
0. 0 0
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-0.12
-0.22
-0.26
-0.:35
-0.32
-0.46
-1.55 -·=---··:-1-. c.·-· -=· t""l":l ~-..... _,.
-2.09
-2., 12
.-, -.. -. -c. 0 c:. .;.
-2., 2E.
-·=· ·:·c:-~D.._._.
-2al~
-2 0 o·;.
-20 05
-2.06
-2.09
-2.12
-2. 15
-2 .. 19
-2.,22
.-. .-.r:--c.. c.·-·
-2. 2:=:
1.2 E:BBL
ROAD 2.4 BBBL
CONNECTED CASE
CASE
o. 0 (I
0.00
0. 0 0
0. 00
Ct.. •. 0 0
-0.06
..:o. 12
-0.22
-0.26
-0.35
-0.32
-0. 4E.
-1 D 55
-28 2:=: .-. . .... -. '=-C:. • r .. l.~•
-2., 0'3
-2.12
-2. 2:~:
-2.26
-2.25
-2 D 1 E.
-2.09
-2.05
-2.06
-2.0'?
-2.,12
-2.15
-2.19
-2.,22
-2 ~ ~~5
·:. ·=··::. -~., ._._,
0.00
0.00
0.00
o.oo
0.00
-0.06
-0.15
-0.29
-0.25
-0.38
-0.37
-0.50
-2. 1:::
-3. 11
-7. :~;7
-?.05
.-.-,·=· -t:· 8 ·=·~
-'S .. E-7 .-.-, .--'=' D ·=·'=·
-58 '518
-5.55
-5. 15
-4.:::1
-4.55
-4.36
-4.20
-4. 08
-::::II 13J!3
-3D:::·;.
-·;:. :::2
-.:::. 77
:;::OUPCE: t·1AP t'10DEL :s: H1ULAT I ON:S: :s::t:Ft:S:E:33i'i' OCS:. :::3L' OC:S:. :33M, [.::. •:-:::: ·
.:.'1 !: ::,~ :·. :-;:H--C:P.EATE!t 1 (•.-··11 /!~:2
D-17
~'".:.::_~,~--~-.::....a~_:.::-.~02~j;;;.;;_.;:.:.~:i:.t:s~·~-~;,;_;::o....~. ~ .. :,_· .. ....::..:~:T-~ ·· --•-r -.· · ~-~ ->~ .. .: -: ::·. _...; -~_,.____._..... :.,_.:...·_ •. ~~---:-.. "':·.·-.. :;~·,_, .:·-~ ,:·'~ .:_-~£,;:.._;_:~.~':_;__;:.-;;_7_.·:~.--:L_;;;.~':..Ji.. ·:~---~='""-· -.c:~~~ ~: .. ·_:_:.....:.;.;.
1'~80
19E:l
1'3:=:2
198:3
1984
1985
1986
1987
1'3::::::
1989
19'?0
1991
1 QQ~ ~~~
1993
1994
1995
-1~&
1 '3'37
1'?'38
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TABLE D. 14.
'AP MODEL STATEWIDE IMPACT PROJECTID~ :
............. ~~··············· .... ·•··· PERCE~iT IMPACT ....................
REAL COMBINED FUNDS BALANCE ..................... ~~····
1.2 E:BBL
.6 BE:BL
CASE
1.2 E:BBL
REMOTE
CASE
ROAD 2.4 BBBL
0.000
o. 000
0. OOQ
o. 0 00
(1.000
0. 01:3
0.045
0.072
0. 1 06
0.149
0., 1:33
0 ll 24~:;
0.:370
0. 56'~
0.731
0.954
1. 246
1 B 5:37
1.816
2 f'l'::,.-.
ll .. ·-··=·
2.:340
2a 5'36
2.85:3
3.126
~::: D 42:3
:3D 74'3
4. o~:fl
"4~ 457
4. :=:4:3
C'" .-•• -~
._1 G a:.t:• (
5~r715
o.oon
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.018
0.050
0.099
0.150
0.206
0.231
~~ .. -.. -.. -.
,_. 0 c: ":JC:
o. 6 0'3
fl ·~·-·r::' • D o' .:;) ._r
1. 650
2. 4 o·~
:3g 27E.
4.117
4.907
5o EaEa6
6 g ~:~::6
7. 0'35
7. :31):3
8o-532
9.314
-10.123
10.963
11.835
121174:3
1 =~:B.:.·~ 0
14. r:. (•;.
CONNECTED CASE
C~SE
0~000
o.eoo
0.000.
0.000
(lu 0(11)
Ou018
0.050
0.099
0.150
0.206
0.231
0.292
0.609
0. 9:35
1. 650
2.409
:::.276
4.117
4. '31)7
~ ~~~ ~.bb~
6.386
7.095
7.803
8.532
9~314
10.123
10.963
11.835
12.743
13.690
14.679
D-18
0.000
0. 000
0.000
.(1. 000
0.000
0. 01:3
0.059
0.126
o. 1 t:.s
0.230
Oe 2E·3 ...... -.. -.~ r ... •~~-:.;c:;;
(I G ::: o::::
1. 2E,:3
:30 712
8.441
10.494
12e~!:3(1
14. 071
15.644
17.11'3
1::: a 5E.5
1·~ e ·~:36
21.421
22. '355
24o525
2E. D 1:3•3
27 II:=: 07
2';.. 535
:31. 331
~3:::: • 2 (1:3
: J-_!;·.: £: ··i~,_~· :'·HJDEL :. !Pi!_IL L1ii cr·4 :: : E:A:sE:3:=:~i' or:s Q ==::3L, OI:S:a ::::~:~1, oc::s II :3::;~· ~
.:,..;~.1r-f;-· ::-:·: ~--~--=·CUTI:'n 1 1"t_.., 1 1 .... ··~:.::.
[
r L
[
(·.-.
·'
c
,.-
L -
L
[
r
I
lc
L-
[
[
[
[
{.=
-~
F'
[
L
L Lo
L
•
----,
__J
~_,:;
1'?::: 0
1 ·?::: 1
1 ·?:::2
1 '3:=::3
19:::4
1 ·;r:=~s
1'?:::6
1'~87
1'~8:3
1'?8'?
19'?0
1991
1 q.::,·=· •• •' 1.-
199:3
19'?4
19'?5
1996
1'?97
1'::,q.;:. -· •. ·-·
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
200'3
2 010
TABLE D. 15.
lAP 1'10DEL :S:TATB.o.II DE H1PACT PF::O.Jt::CTI O~i:S::
...................................... 4o 4o •......................................
PE!:;:CEt-iT IMPACT ......................................
~~EAL PER CAPITA COMBINED FUNDS BALANCE .................................... -.............. -......... .
1.2 BBBL
• 6 E::BBL 1.2 BBBL ~:DAD 2. 4 B:BBL
CAS:E REI'10TE CDrH·iECTED CA:S':E
CAS:E CASE ----------------------------------------
0. (I 0 o. 0 0 0 0 0 (I 0. 00
0 0 00 0. 0 0 Oo 0 0 0.00
0. 00 0. 0 0 Oo 0 0 0. 01}
0. 00 0. 0 0 o. 0 0 0. 00
. o. 00 0. I) 0 o. 0 0 0. I) 0
· -0. OE. -0.06 -o. 06 -0. 06
-·). 11 -0.12 -0-12 -0. 1E.
-0. 12 -0.21 -0.21 -0. 2'3
-0.15 -0.2:3 -o. 2~: .-0.21-
-0.2:3 -o.:;:1 -Oo 31 -0.:34
-0.24 -0.24 -0.24 -0.29
-0.41 -0.:::::3 -011 :::::=: -0.41
-0.74 -1.60 -1 • .::o -2.:32
-1.25 -2.24 -2.24 -3.17
-1. 14 -1.25 -1u25 I). '?7
-1. 11 -0.51 -0.51 5.:31
-0.?2 I). ::::6 0. :36 f .. ·~:3
-0.46 1. 1 0 1. 10 :::.4(1
-0.17 1. :::9 1. :?,9 q ·::.·:· ..... ·-·
0.14 2.70 2a 7(1 11.47
0.50 .-. C"c:"
;, .. ·-··-· .-, C' C' ·=I G ._1._1 13.05
0.81 4v :3:=: 4. :;::=: 14.61
1. 11 5.15 5. 15 1 E .• 09
1 • ::::·:; 5. ::::=: 5a ::::E: 17.54
1. E.::: t: .• E. 4 6.64 1'?.01
1. ·~:=: 7.41 7.41 20.50
2 Q :3(1 ::: e 21 :=:. 21 22. 02
.-. .-c:
.::, e f::•·.J •;. II o:::: '51. 0:3 2:3. 5'3
::::. 01 •:;. II ::: •;. ·:=. ·=··~ ... Sl ,_. ... 25.,21
3.41 10. 7'? 10.79 26.90
·-=· ·=··-=-. ·-·. ·-··-· 11. 7:3 11.73 2:::. t:.E.
:J~=c~: ~A~ ~:JEL SIMULATIONS SBASE83N, OCS.83L, DCS.83M, OCS.83~~
,; '; Ii J .:: : . :: : -i - -·: =· ~ F: T r:: D 1 (! • 1 1 ...-::: .::
D-19
.~1 l ~-1 J ] ~] -J ] ,~1 -1 , __ j ,_, i I .) ] ) ,] J •·) '·-] J J oz-a
SONYlSI NYI!n31Y HO~ SNOI!J3r0~d 3SYJ 3SW8 1300W dWIJS . . . 3 XION3dd'tf. _,-..
~1 •. -. . ~ } '-1 ] 'l J J ) 'J J J
·--..
...
'
_j
' ~'
Table E. l.
·Taoie E.2.
Table E.3.
Table E.4.
LIST OF APPENDIX E TABLES
Population
Resident Employment
Nonresident Emplofinent
Total Employment
E-3
J 'l . I J ~l J ] '] J J J l ._j .
r~
,,
1 .•
··-···-----~---· ------~-·-···-· _____ ......_...._.... '--~-· ___ _...: __ , --~------·.:.._ _________ .........: ......... _ -'-~~~----·--··---------. • _ _:.:_ ____ ··--··:...•-· --·-:..·-..~ .. ·-----• ---·~ ... ··•-·-·-·-·--•c-'"·•'
YEAR
1981
1982
1983
.. 1984
1985
-l-9.86
1987
1988
-1.2.8.9
1990
1991
_j_99?
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997.
--1..2..2.8
1999
2000
TABLE E .1.
SCIMP MODEL BASE CASE PROJECTIONS FOR
ALEUTIAN.ISLANDS POPULATION
BRESF'OF' ENCLV TONRFISH F'MIL
3654. 1666. 717. 3894.
3738. 1667; 774. 3894.
3833. - . -_1753. 911. --3894 .•.
3953. 1801. 1093. 3894.
4080. 1827. 1280 • 3894 ..
420.4 . 180 7-----147-4----389 4 •".
4319. 1761. 1677. 3894.
4427. 1687. 1889 .. 3894.
a"'iA-4 .. 16.95 ?Q.3c:' . -8.9-4.--
4662. 1706. 2116. 3894.
4788. 1720. 2216. 3894.
:49-.32. .1.7.40. "3.4.0_ 38.2.4. --
5101· .. 1766. 2492 .' .·.. • 3894 ~
5305 •. 1802 .. 2680. : .. _ .. · ... ··. 3894.
Cj C'L.c-'t.Z 18Aa ?9-1..0 I 38.9-4-
5876. 191L 3190. 3894.
6285. 1994. 3532. 3894.
68.1.5. ?1.05 .• "39:46_ 3.a9.A.._
7512. 2253 ., 4447 .. 3894 ..
8348. 2450. 4473. 3894.
r-BRES£:0. · RESLDEN.J __ E:.OE:ULA.:UmL-
, ENCLV ENCLAV~ POPULATION
TONRFISH NONRESIDENT FISHERMEN
:._E:.M..LL-----M-I-LllARL£0 E:.ULA:U.ON._ ____ _
E-5
-~·----.:..,_ _______ :..:__.,_ __ ~~ -,-.·., •. ;·· ... ::_: ~--~---=--'-'"--·---~--~·· -_. ·.' ·'. . ~~~--~·--·------"'-·-----.. -~:-....-.,__, _________ ~---[
[]
al_
82
83
8_4_
1985
1986
Glli
7_
8
9
JL
1991
1992
l
:l9_9_3_
. 1994
1995
Lt~_u_
1997
. 1998
11_9_9.9_
. ,_ 2000'
F'TOTAL1
TABLE E. L
(Continued}
PTOTAL1 PTO"[AL2 F'TOTAf:-3
5320~ 6037. 9931o
5405. 6179. 10073~
-___ 5587A . 6.4.9_8.+----_1039.2.._
5754. 6847. 10741.
5907~ 7187. 11081.
--60-11----7-485. 11379-.. -
6080• 7757. 11651.
6114~ 8003. 11897.
--6239~ 8223. 1.2162.~-
6367. 8483. 12377~
6509. 8725. 12619o
__ 66 22. ___ 9.0 12_. __ 129.06.-
686 7.-9359. 13253 +
7107. 9787. 13681.
__ ;?_406 •---1.0315 .._:__-l.A209 .•.
7787. 10977. 14871.
8279. 11811. 15705 •.
_:_S_'l2L~ _ __1286.7_. ___ l_6.Z61_. _
. 9765. 14212. 18106.
10798. 15271. '19165 •
TOTAL POPULATION EXCLUDING NONRESIDENT
FISHERMEN AND MILITARY
,_,_..J;;.f'_._I OliL? __I_Qit\LE:.O.E:.U LA.il.Ol:LEX.C.LUJllN_G_M I L ITA RY __ _
PTOTAL3 TOTAL POPULATION _.· .. - -
..
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
lli.S...tliUIE-OF SQC~aLAND_EC.ONOt:U..C_RE.S.E8RC.1:f . ..-_ _____ _
SEPTEMBER, 1982.. ---. :_~:AU'i[fl-;0~>.
E-6
[
[
[
['
l
[
[
r,
I
! . .__
,---
t.
[
c
[
t-~
"'
[
L
L
L
L
i
·-
-~
:...?
·-~·.:-"--··-~
TABLE E.2.
SCIMP MODEL BASE CASE PROJECTIONS FOR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
Y.££iE' Ei'lf..:Rv. . EME'E'ON IE' £HEME'
1981 24. 1 ~ 251.
1982 30. 1. 251.
__1_9._8.3 .5 .... ., ".5L
1984 66. 3 .. 251.
1985 87. 4~ 251.
_1_2_86 1_0_2 6J. '?_5_1_.
1987 132. 9. 251.
1988 156. 12. 251.
I E:Ef..:EMf_:_
174.
174.
1.2.£1_.._
174.
174.
. 1ZA,_
174.
174.
1989 __ . __ --_173 .• .: _.:. __ ·----.1.8 .• 25~ +-. . - -17_4_. .c
!990 183. 25 •. . 251 + 174.·
1991 196. 35. 251"~ 174.
1992 213. 50. 251. 174.
1993 234. 71. 251. 174 ..
1994 260. 101. 251. 174.·
·--C"· J..'1'1..J 294. 142 •. ··. .-,~~ ... ~l. 174 •
1996 336. 201. 251. 174.-
1997 390. 283. 251. 174.
1998 459. 398. 251. 174.
1999 547. 560. 251. 174.
2000 595. 787. 251. 174.
EMPRV RESIDENT BOTTOMF~SHERMEN
EM P R 0 N B(ff"T 0 M FISH F' R 0 C E s-=-se::-I :::.N e::-G :...:.._ R~· E:::-S=-::-:Ir~, E::=:N~T~E::-:M~F~. L:-:0=-:Y-:-:M-:-:E=-:N-:-:T=--
TRFHEMF' TRADITIONAL FISHING RESIDENT EMF'LOYMEN~ •
TRFPEMP TRADITIONAL PROCESSING RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT --
E-7
-·--·'-·~............:..·---~--~.......:......~-· ___ ..:...__-------~·· --'·--'-·-----·-·-----···--.•. ___ :.:...:. • ..:.....:~;.:, .. ~ ~"---· _._:_..u....... .. ~-... -
1981
·19t:Ez-
1983 I
1984 .
_-_1985-
1986 . . I -. 1987 :
19a·a-
. 1989
1990
199_1_
1992
1993
-f99:r:-
1995
:1.996
-1997-:
1 000 ~ .... , ,( u '
1999 -2·ou·o-
!'{EMil r6S
NFREMP
TABLE E.2.
(Continued)
_REMESGS ____ NFREMf'
o~ 11.
o~ 11 ..
Q_. ---~---11 ... ____
15. 11.
17 .. 11. --
__ __15-*-------1 L. __
9. 11. . o. . 11 ..
-----o .. 1 1 ...
o. 11 ..
o. 11.
Q __ + _________ !;!._!.
o .. 11.
o. 11 ..
o. ~1. o. 11.
o. 11.
o. 11 • --· ·--0 :·---. 11.
o .. 11.
---------··
EHS £MG_l__
461.. 600.
465 .. 609.
482-._ __ 61.2...-
497. 630.
509. 643.
C"j_6J S.L_
·520 .. 670.
521 • 682 •
--530-+----... 693 ..
539. 706.
550. 719.
563. 733 ..
581 .. 749 ..
604 + 767.
633. 790.
673. 818.
725. 853 ..
795. 899. -.. _____ ---------·-889. 958.
1000 .. 1035.
Sf. -GEORGe SALE RESIDENf--Er'1F'LOYMENT
OTHER BASIC SECTOR RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
EMSl SUPPORT SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
-EMG1 GOVERNMEN-T EMPLCiYMEN=T------------
E-8
r
[
[
[
r-·
r
[
[
r ,_
'I...._;
r·
L
[
[
t
L
[
~~
L
{
L
L
. _,
-1-' ~
I
TABLE E.3.
SCIMP MODEL BASE CASE PROJECTIONS FOR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS NONRESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
YEAR TEFF'EMF' EMF'NRON TFPNREMF' TNRFISH EMPNRV
1981 1565. 3. 1568. 505. 212.
1982 1565. 4. 1569. 505. 269.
1983 1565. .,.
...J• 1570. 505. 406 •
1984 1565. 7. . 1572. . 505. 588.
1985 1565. 10. 1575. 505. 775.
1986 1565. 13. 1578. 505. 969. ------------1987 1565. 18. 1583. 505. 1172.
1988 1565. 24. 1589. 505. 138-4.
1989 1565. --. ~..::. 1597. 505. _1_::i;3Q _ _. __
1990 1565. 43. -· 1608. 505. 1.~11.
1991 1565. 57. 1622. 505. 1711.
1992 1565. 77. 1642. ... . 505 • 1835.
1993 1565. 103. 16.:,8. 505. 1987.
1994 1565. 139. 1704. 505. 217C,.
1995 .. --_1565.--··-.18.5. __ .:__17:50. _______ 505 .• _.--2405.
-1996 1565. 248. -1813. 505 .. 2685.
1997 1565. 331. 1896. 505. 3027.
--1...2.9..8 j!:)61:). 4-4.? 2.0.0.7 I "'i.0~---3441--
1999 1565 .. ·s9o .. 2155. ·-.--_.· 505. 3·~42.
2000 1565. . 787 •. 2352.>::. J · .. 505. 3'?68.
·-.·.·· ... . -· ...
-TF~D.LI.I.ONALE:ROCES.SINtL.ENCLAV E.._EMF:'LO Y. MEN I._ IEEE·EME'
EMPNRON.
TFPNREMP ---.
: BOTTOMFISH PROCESSING ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT-
TOTAL PROCESSING ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
SH : ·•· T6'ADTTIONAL.E.I.SH.ING-NONf~ESI.nEN.I . .;:~_ ____ _ TNREI-''
EMPRNRV BOTTOMFISHING NONRESIDENT FISHERMEN
E-9
• ~-• -• •·'--· ·,~:.. -', :"::... ~·--'~·, -~----·• S•"--v-.•.. _ __.-.;._:..___
1981
:i982
-1.983-
1984
1985
..1.986 __
1987
1988
. 198 9 _:_
1990
1991
..1.992_
1993
1994
_1_9..9.5_
1996
1_997
-1998
1999
2000
_J_ONRfiSH
717.
774.
___ 9!_1.
1093.
1280.
1474.
1677.
1889.
TABLE E.3.
(Continued)
EEMF'SGS
o.
o.
8"'" ..J•
131.
154.
131 •
so.
o ..
----2035 ·-------0 ·-2116. o.
2216. o.
2340 • o. ----. ··---·-·-2492. o.
2680. o.
NFEEMP TQf.;~MF'
98. 2383 ..
98. 2441.
9~_ • 4~~
98. 2763.
98 .. 2953.
98. 3150.
98. 3357.
98. 3576 ..
~8 •. __ :3_'l_2LL_
98. 3821.
98. 3936.
0•:;) , \.J. 4080.
98. 4259.
98. 4482.
... --2910. . --o. --·-· -~B.·------4258 •.
3190. o. 98. 5101~-_C"_..,.,
,;)..J...).:.,o o. 98. 5526.
----3946--9S-6052--
4447. o. . 98. 6700 •
4473. o. 98. 6924.
TONRFISH TOTAL NONRESIDENT FISHERMEN
~G.SE.Me· ST. G£QRGLSAL£_£N.CLAV.E_.EME:LO.Y.ME.N.L
EEMP .· . . • OTHER ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
. EEMP · ··· · ·-· •..... \TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
I
E-10
r
[
[
[
[
[ ~
[
[
r
I
L
r
L
[
c
[
, ..
l~
[
[
L
(
L
[
.,
_J
....
_:oij
YEAR
1981
__1.2_8.2
1983
1984
1?8~
1986
1987
~8_8
1989
1990
.... ,_~· _.;:_·...::-~--_;_· :;;.~--~.:. .:.-=-=-:.:.~ .... ·. .·'.:'>:;._;_;_d.:: . .: •. :·;.;.:_:;;.;--· -··-· _......._: .•. -------________ _: --->.-~:...:. ___ · .•. "'
EMX
461.
4.67.
492.
520.
544.
566.
585.
. 6.0_~.
~62.7.
644.
TABLE E.4.
SCIMP MODEL BASE CASE PROJECTIONS FOR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
EMS1 EMG1 ENCLV
461. 600. 1666.
46_5. 6.Q.2.. •. 16_67 t
482.·_ 619. 1753.·
497. 630 .. 1801.
509. 643. 1827.
516. 657. 1807.
520. 670. 1761 ..
5.2_1 t 6_82_ • _ 6_82,..
530. 693 .. 1695.
.539. 706 .. 1706.
TONRFISH
717 .•
774.
911.
1093.
12_e_o~
1474.
1677.
.1_8_8.£._.
2035 ..
2116 ..
EMIL
2504~
2_504._
2504.
2504.
~-~-Qh_
2504.
2504~
.2504 __ .. _
. 2504.
2504.
12~1 6..68t 5..5_0_j_ Z1.9~ .. -172_0_. · .. "' . .. ?2.1_6_._--?5_0_9_,_
1992 699. 563. 733 .. 1740. 2340. 2504.
1993-7·11. 581. 749~ 1766 ... 2492.-2504.
_l,.£...£=1 Z9L 6Q=1., 7_6.2. 8D~ "68.0_. . "50.4_._
19$'5 872. 633. 790. 1848 .. 2910. 2504.
1996 973. ··-673. 818. 1911. 3190. 2504~
_1997 1109. 725. 8_!;i_3. 1994. 3_5_3_2...t_ 250_4_._
1998 1293. 795. 899 .. 2105. 3946. 2504.
1999 1543 .. 889. 958 .. 2253. .4447. 2504.
200Q~ 1818. ---_1000_._ 1035 +-2450.-- -
. 4473. ~~: 2..J04 •
EMX RESIDENT BASIC EMPLOYMENT
EMSi SUPPORT SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
EMGl GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
ENCLV ·-·ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT ------·
TONRFISH NONRESIDENT FISHERMEN
EMIL MILITARY EMPLOYMENT
E-ll
_.J. ----··-· -· . -'-•i_:_'"-'"'·""---.=_ :::.·'-!~:_·_:....::.:r~:..b~~
'1981
1982
1983
1984
·1985
;: 1986
-:t 987
1988
~rcnr9~
. 1990
1991 .
1992
1995
1994
"'11t9·5~
1996'
1997
1998
1999
2000
---t-bEMP.l
TOEMF'2
TOEMP3
TOEMP4
TABLE E.4.
(Continued)
TOEMF'1 TOEMF'2
1522~ 3188.
_1_;i4_2. 3298.
1594. 3347 •.
1647 .. 3448 ..
1697 •· 3524 •.
1739. 3546 •.
1775. 3536.
__l_8_0 z.. ____ 3_5_9_3
1850. 3545 ..
1889 .. 3595 ..
li3.Z 3_6.57 +
1996. 3736 ..
2071 .. 3837.
2.1.6a 35~.ZQb
2295. 4143.
2464. 4375.
_2688. ~.682.
2987. 5092.
3390. 5643 ..
---.:3853 .•.. 6303+--
TOEMF'3 TOEMP4
3'?04. 6408~
398~. ---·~~~§_ .. _ •'. 4...,.,.8
·· .. ;.· ..:.....J + 6762 ..
4541. 7045 ..
'4804. 7308.
5020. 7524 ..
5212. 7716.
;L3_83_. ____ Z8_87 ._
5579. 8083 ..
. 5711. 8215 •
5823_., o---a--'-'-~L.L~
6076. 8580.
6330. 8834 ..
6_65.0_. ___ 9.~~
7053 .. 9557.
7565. 10069 ...
82.1A..t 1.9 Z_1_6 __ t_
9039. 11543.
10090. 12594.
10777. --13281.
TOTAL RESfDENT-E-MPLOYMENT _______ _
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT EXCLUDING NONRESIDENT
FISHERMEN AND MILITARY
TOTAL EM P L 0 YME NT EXC . ..:.L~U~D...:..I-N __ G_M ..... I L,..--I T"'"_ {::!.-_ R,--: Y-. ----
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
-n~STrTUTE-OF_S_Ol:-rAL AND-~CONC)FfrCR-ESEARCH,.
SEF'TEMBERr 1982.
.----· •-..:.-. .. · ·~· : ,...£ ,.:;;zy:i!S-..'e:'.: ... --·.-. ~-; . :s !! ··eroS~-t • · · . _ _;, • ·
E-12
[
[~
,~
l
L
r
L
r:
c
r' I
I
\.. .. "
r" L
[
[
[ -
r.,
l--·
L
[
( '
I L
L
t-.:1 saN'iflSI NVIln31V ~o.:1 SNOI1::>3roe~d lJ'if&JI 13am·J dWDS, .:1 XION3dd\t '
.~, I ,_j ] ,-1 , _ _j J ] ] ] ] J
..:.3
-""'
Table F. l.
·Table F.2.
Table F.3.
Table F.4.
T9-ble F.5.
Table F.6.
Tab ·le F. 7.
Table F .8.
Table F.9.
Table F. 10.
Tab 1e F ~ n.
Tab 1 e F ~ 1 2 ~ .
Table F. 13.
Table F ~ 14.
Table F. 15.
Table F.l6.
Table F~17~
Table F. 18.
Table F. 19.
Taule F.20.
Table F .21.
Table F.22.
Table F.23.
Table F.24.
Table F.25.
-r_:...,_ ~ lr' &au&t: r • .::.o.
Table F.27.
Table F.28.
Table F.29.
Table F.30.
Table F.3l.
Table F.32.
LIST OF APPENDIX F-TABLES
.6 BBBL Cas~: Resident Pop~lation.
.6 BBBL Case:-Enclave Population
.ci BBBL Case: Total Population
.6 BBBL Case: Total Resident Employment
.6 BBBL Case: Basic Resident Employment
..6 BBBL Case: Services Employment
.6 BBBL Case: Government Employment
~6 BBBL Case: Total Resident and Enclave Employment
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Resident Population
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Enclave Population
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Population
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Resident Employment
L2 BBBi.. Road-Connected Case: Basic Resident Employment
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Services Employment
1.2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Government Employment
1~2 BBBL Road-Connected Case: Total Resident and
Enclave Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Resident Population
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Enclave~opulation
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Population
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Resident Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Basic Resident Employment.
1~2 BBBL Remote Case: Services Employment
1~2 BBBL Remote Case: Government Employment
1.2 BBBL Remote Case: Total Resident and
Enclave Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Resident Population
2.4 8B8L Case: Enclave Population
2.4 BBBL Case: Total Population
2.4 SBBL Case~ Total Resident Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Basic Resident Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Services Employment
2.4 dBBL Case: Government Employment
2.4 BBBL Case: Tota_1 Resident and
Enclave Employment
F-3
:-1 'l -1 ] J ~~ ~ J J J J ··-, i I ._J J . J J ._1 J J J J v-.:1
='
_j
YEAR
TABLE F~l.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT. PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
.6 BBBL CASE
RESIDENT POPULATION
---·· ----------·----------------------BASE CASE IMPAC~ CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT F'ERCENT IMPACT
1980 uv 3570. .3.5.Z..O.J. O_t ._il_O_
1981 3654. 3654. -o. .oo
1982 3738. 3738. -o. .oo
1983 3833. 3833. o. .00
1984 3953. 3953. -o. . oo
1985 4oso. ~no3. 23. .01
1986 ·4204. 4220. 17. .00
1987
::"1988
==--,..---_. -~f3 T9 • . . . .. <~? : . ·f3"37 ~; , , -1"8 • · · ·' :·. . · · .. o o
4427.-. .;.. 4447. 20. i .• . .00
:l"989 4544 •.. '":<' 4576. 32. .-01.
~9·o -------4·6-62 + ~f690. 2s. . b r
1991 4788. 4813. 25. .01
:l992 4932. 4966. 34. .01
199-3 .-------=s-nf f-; 5"3"1 9 • --_. -:;?"1 a·. . . o 4
199-4 5305. • . 5641. 336.: .06
-55 57 • >": 59 8 9 • - 4 31 + i • 0 8 1995
199-6 5_8_7_6. 63·1-8. 44"i. --~
1997 . 6285. 6701. 416. .07
1998 6815. 7187. 372. .05
-:L99"9 75"i2 ~ 7822-;------· -----·-·31 0 .-·-···---··-··---:-uq···
2000 8348. 8578. 230. .e3
------------------------------------------------------··-----·
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONSr
-I~STITLfTE ··oF -S-OCIAL---AND-EC.ONOMIC-R"ESEARCH-,--
SEF'TEMDEf\, 1982.
-.: ; : :{~:~:::/. :_(: j),: .. ·: . {:::~::; ~{f;/~t ~:~~:-~ :~.;) <::: ,: ' ..
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
pointo
F-5
-_______ _,_ -~---··---·---~-----'-'--~-·-:. ____ .... ...........: ..... -'•#~···# •• ,..,. •• ..:.-:...:_.:,..:.. •. ·-'•' ... ...!!~.l::..:~:::,:.....-:.~ ... ,:.._,_,_ ___ ~--~ ... :...:~
YEAR
Tri/EI..I iF .• 2.
st:IMP MmlE.L JMP'A:CJ JIRU.JEC.LlON'S :FOR ALEUTIAN TSLAiillS
.• Ji -B:B:BL CASE
END.A\IJE POPllLAJTON
BASE CASE IMF'A:CT-CASE A'BSOLUTE IMPACT F'EF~CENT IMPACT
f
L
r~
[
----·o.-···------0.---· [' 1980 166:3. 1.663.
1981 1.666. 1666 +
1982 1667 + 1.667.
1983 1.753. 175~f-. -----
1984 1801. 1801.
0 + 0.
0 + 0.
o.
o.
---------0 .---
o.
-~ 98~ ·--~ B;2?. ____ :?1_08 ·---______________ ;28~_!.._ ____ -----------------_o ._15
_1986 1807. 2024. 217. 0.12
1987 1761. . 1997. 237. 0.13
~_88 1687.. 1963. ___ ?.:?~-~------------9.·16
1989 1695. 2456. 762. 0.45
1990 1.706. 2264. 559. 0.33
_1991 _1.22.0.. ···-.2029 .. +---·----302 ~--___ o .18---
[
l ~
[
--1992 1740. 2093. 353. o.2o r
1993 1766. 2302. 536. 0.30 l•
-1"994 1802•-----_-,-··----2407-t-----·---·--.--·---· ---605.--··-----------··---0.34--· L
1995.. . 1848. 251~+. 666. 0.36
1996 1911. 2586.
-1-9.9:Z· -1.9.9A ~ .2669-•-·---
r
675. 0.35 ·t 675. ____________ 0.34__ .
1998
1999
_2000 __
2105.
2253.
2450.-
2780.
2928.
------. -·--· 3125 ·--------------·------------
675.
675.;
.675. __
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS~
tNSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
-SEF..:.TEME!ER , .. -1982.•---~~--,.......,--------,........,..-,.....,----.-------·: .. :. . ·-~ · .. - . ~~-~; .. :;_ ··~· .. .-.~·-: ~;~ -.... -.-(·-;·:---~ .. ~~;~~:-~:r~;~~-~:/::·:-~·::>>· ~· ~·'-·'
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-6
0.32
0.3()
0.28 l
[
c
L
[
r~ .___
L
t: L
L
~
---]
-"
=
_j
TABLE F.3.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
.6 BBBL CASE
TOTAL POPULATION
L-EAR BASE_CASE __ ltif.:.AC.LCASE ___ AESOLUIE ___ IJ1F~ACT _____ f:Ef\CENI_IME:.AC.I __
-1980 5233. 5233. 0. 0. 00
[]-~~ --~~~~ :--~~~g :·-·-----·---····-------:g :---------~-···:g: gg---
983 5587. 5587. 0 + . 0. 00
a_ .57..5~-~-> 57.5A.~ -_O_t .=.o too_
1985 5907. 6212. 305. 0.05
1986 6011. 6244. 234. 0.04
1 ~m------:m:·---. --m~:---------m:---------· ui·
L_1_9_9_o_ 6367_, __________ 6.9.54.~-________ .587 •------------------o. o9 __ _
1991 6509. 6842. 334. 0.05
1992 -.. .6672. 7059. 387. 0. 06
U -:~-!. ~~~~:-~-~~~: ·-·--------:_ ___ -.. ~~1: .---·----···-----· ~: ~~ --·
995 7406. 8503. 1097. 0.15
:l'l.£~ . .78.7J ______ 89.03. __________ 1116.__________ -·-0.14 ____ _
:t997 8279. 9:po. 109L o.13
:l998 8921. 9967. 10-47. 0.12
:l999 9765. 10750. 9G5. 0.10
2000 10798. 11703. 905. o.os
------------------------·· ----· ~-----------·-----------·-----------~---
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEl PROJECTIONS,
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, -SEF;"'t"E}1:BER--;-T982-~ .:...;....:_ ___________ _
NOTE: 11 Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point~
F-7
TABLE F.4.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
.6 BBBL CASE
TOTAL RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
[
r~
[
[ '
-'?"EAR -ril~-sE:-ct\·st· IHi=-=-Act~ ... tA~ff(·-·ABSb[UTE]]fF;ACY---;:;e:Rc.EN-T-iMF:·AcT ~~
. 1980 1479t 1479. ' o. o. l
-:f98T i522. 1522·. --"(f:·--------<5":------
. 1982 1542. 1542. o. o. r·
1983 159A1. 1594. o. o. L"
":T984 r6A7. ,, 16"4·7-. , o.
1985 1697 •. -:/: .•.. 1820. 123.
1986 1739. ·' 1834. 94.
:-:r9B7 r77...... f8T6. 101-. --
1988 1807. 1920. 113.
1989 1850. 2030. 180.
------o":·----
0.07J""
0.05
·--0-~-06 .
-199·o· 1-8-8'i.--... -.. _---.. 2o48 ~-----------·--------159 ~-----------·-·--
0. 06 [~
0.10
0. 08 --
0.07 1991 1937. 2081. 145.
1992. 1996.-2197. 202. o.1o r-
-. ·. ···· ;;..,-·-...;--:~-------~-;;;;·-.;~ IO:..r--::-·---------·---·--·-----"'_;,·-1 199.5 ..:..0/1. ..:.:~~v. .::. ..... 9. o • .~...:~ , .
1994 2168. 2441. 273.
1995 2295. 2584. 288. 1<i96 2.46-;f-. -------·-;5763~----------·-·-···--·-299.
1997 2688. 3000. 3l.2.
1998 2987. 3316. 3?9. 1'i99 __________ 33<i<f:---------374L __________ .. ------·35i. ------
2000 38~53. ·4233. 3GO.
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
--tf;fS-TI flJ'fE--of."-~~Hjc·'r-AL A-N"fiE-COfrDf·i"r-£:-RE-SEAI~CH,
SEF'TEMBER, 1982.
NOTE: "Percent impact"
percentages. For
than .11 percent.
point.
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
F-8
0.13
o.13 r
0.12 I
l -0.12
0.11 [
0.10 •
0.10 ..
·----,-· --~
[
c -
[
[
[
L
I-
I L
L
~
_)
·-··--________ ... ....__ ·-··"-·-~-':_,·_-~-..:...---~~-"··""'~---. ---~_ .. ___ ;·_--:...;.., __ . , .... :.:.:_·,-_____ ,...:.........., .... ...,,_,.__::0:..,.,.;.:,,,£::..:;-: • .;{<:':,;-.;~.'-'j._'.,_~-;:-~if::.~l.:i.
TABLE F .5.
SCTMP MODEl IM:PA·CT PRQ,JECTTONS FO.R ALEUTIAN· ISLANDS
.6 BBBt CASE
BASlC RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
YEAR BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPAtT PERCENT IMPACT
1980 436.
1981 461.
-1.2.8" . 467 •----·
1983 492.
436.
461.
A67_._
492.
o. o.
o.
o.
---------0 ··-----------. -----0 •-----. o. o.
1984 520. 520. o. o.
-1985 -5-44. _____ 616._________ 72. _______________ . 0.13
1986 566. 621. 56. 0.10
1987 585. 644. 59. . . 0. 10
..1.988 604 •-669L.____ 65 •---· ____ · ____ · ___ o_, 11_
1989 627. 701. 74. 0.12
1990 644. 720. 76. 0.12
_l'l.9 ____ 668 • __________ 755 .. _______________ s7. ______________ ..... ___ o. 13
1992 699. 828. 128. 0.18
1993 741. ,; . 956. • 215... 0~29
1994 79.7 L0.3S .. , ".40..t _____ o. 30 .. _
19~5 872. 1138. 266. 0.30
1996 973.
J9!17 ______ ll0 9 ·----
1239. 266.
1375 •--------------.... 266 ·---------------·
0.27
0.24
1998 1293. 1559. 266. 0.21
1999 1543. 1809. 266. 0.17
_20.QO 1818. 208~_. __________ 266_, ________________ 0 t 15-
-----.---.. ·-. ---
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
INSTITUTE. OF SOCIAL AND· ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
_5EPJEMB.ERJ~B2L-----------------------------
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-9
, . ..:_.-··~ • .· • :.,.,; ·., • • ; r: .>·'. • .:\'.
TABLE F.6.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
.6 BBBL CASE
SERVICES EMPLOYMENT
IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT
[
[
I
L
[
PERCENT Ii'1PACT I YEAR BASE CASE ---
1980 . 452. 452. 0. ------------~-.-·---r_~
:t981 461~ 461. o. o~
em~. :!r---:~r ____________ t ________ -r-[_
1985 5~'59. 5·57. 48. o·:-o9·-l ..
. 1986 516. 553. 37. 0.07
1987 520. 559. 39. 0. 08 -
[
r9-ers . . 521-~~ 566. ----4~f. ----,,-~-o9-
L 989 . 2~(). 6~7. ?? • ? . 18 I'
1990 ..J~'>9. 616. 77. o.14 LJ
:[991--. -----550·~--604: 54:------·------·--0.10
1992 :i63. 633. 69. 0.12
1"993 581. 691. 110. 0.19
li 1"99""f . •· 604. d < 732-~~-fi9·:---·--------. ----6·.-21
. 1 9 9 5 · · · 6 3 ~ • -. 7 ~ 8 ~ _ 14 5 • .· o_ • 2 3
1996 673~ ' 8.:..1. 148. 0.22
. 1"997 72.5 ~ s7·::r: ---1 ·fs. ·-·-·a·. 20
•. 1998 795. _943. 147. 0.19
· 1999" B89. 1035. 146. 0.16
c~~~-----~~------1 0-0('i_: -----------i-r~:-:~~-----~----~~---1-4~~~~----. ~:--: ~ 14
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONSY
INSTITUTE OF SOGIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
ISEPTEME1i::F(;-·f982·~-----·-·---··-----··-. --. ------·-·--····--------·----. ---------·
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, • 11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-10
r-
• I
L....
r
I_
l
c
c
t~
[
[
L
r·
1-.:-= Ld
L
!
[
L -
[
• [
I I __
l
'
[
[
r I -
L
r ,
I
L~
[
-·
u
[
l
l ~\
L~
~--
TABLE F.7.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
. . 6 BBBL CASE
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYi~ENT
.,_ ~
YEAH i:iA-S ECA_s_E tHF·ACT CAS-E-AB-SbL"UTE ___ j}iPA-CT--F~EF~cEN'r' -fHF;Acf.
_.~1_980 _____ . _ ~---·-·----~9.1.t-______ 59.L.__________ _ o . .._ ___ .o ... ____ _
.. 1981 600. --600. 0. 0.
1982 609. 609. o. o~
rt~~!~-----------~~~ :-.· .:t -~~;: --·-c---~-. . < __ , g :~-----· -.. -;---·-. ----·g :------
\ 1985 643. . :c.· o46. 3. -· o. oo
'_1..9..86 __ · 652'... 'L 659...-. -:>.•---'----__ o •. oo_
. 1987 6 70 .-6 72. 3. 0 ~ 00
1988 682. 685. 3. o.oo
_1989 _______________ 693. ______________ 702. ---··---·-· ...... 8. ---·-· 0.01
:l990 . 706. 712. 6. 0.01
1991 719. 722. 3. o.oo
~-1.2.92-_733. ____ 237..___________ _ _________ 4 •------·--. ____ o. 01 _
1993
1994
749.
767.
755. ~ 6. 0.01
792. 25. 0. 03
199:=i 7_9.0. 828.. ___ 38. ___ 0._05_
, 1996 818. -~" 866. ·,48. 0.06
; 1997 853. 902. 49. . 0.06
.J.9.9.EL _________ 8'r9_t._ _________ 944 t_ __________ :45 , ______________ (). os ...
1999 958. 998. 40. 0.04
2000 1035. .1068. 33. 0. 0~5
_s 0 UR C £.:-:.::5 Cl MF~. M 0 DEL.E'RQJE CTI 0 N S . .t. ___ _ ---------------------------·-·INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
SEF'TEMBER, 1982.
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-11
---~ -. .:... -·.--·-.,~·:· ··.·. ~-;.; .. ~-·~·· .• (':,.,,. Lc·.::··.:.·. ,_,_._;__._~: .. _ •. ~:~;_:-,.j /!0~:..:......~
YEAR
TABLE F.8.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
.6 BBBL CASE
TOTAL RESIDENT AND ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
BASE CASE .·~:': .. IMF'ACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMF'ACT · PERCENT IMPACT
1980 3142. 3142. o. o.
1981 . 3188. ·' 3188. o. o.
_:L9.8':> 3208.... 3208 •--·-. 0.•-.-.. ----.--.0 ·----
1983 3347. 33•l7. o.: o.
1984 3448 •.•.•. · 3448. o. ·... o.
~c · ·.· · 3.52~1. · 3<l28.t 4.04.. ______ 0 •. 1.1 ___ _
1986 3546. 3a5·7. 311. o.o9
1987 3536.. 3873. 337. 0.10
1988_ 3493.. 3883.. 389~ .. 0 ·.-·-0.11
1989 3545. 44!36. 941. 0.27
-1990 3595. •l313. 717. 0.20
1991 3657. 4110. •l53. 0.12 :C99_2 ___ -~-------· 3736-~-~--· ------42.9()·.------·-··-----. ------·555:·----·----------o.15
.1993 3837. 4632. 795. 0.21
r
r
C,
[
I
re-
i/ I
[
[
(''!
L
r~
i
I
l L_,_;
.1:..?J4 397o. 4E}_~~-· -~?.~. .9 .~2___ 1 1995 4143. 5098. 955. o.23 L
1996 4375. 53•+8. 974. 0.22
1997 4682. 5669. 987. ().21 :C99Ef ---5092:·------------·-6096 ~-------------·· -1004 _-------.... ---o. 20
1999 5643. "6670. 1026. 0.18
2ooo 6303. ____ z~-~s . .!. ______________ J os5! ____ ... __________ 9. 17
r
L
[
souR·cr--·sc-iMF· rH:fDEC--F·r~OJECTIONs·;---------· --·-·· ·----···-------------.--··------·--····· --·---,..
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC R~SEARCH, L'
SEF'TEMBEF\, 1982. -·
NOTE: 11 Percent impact"
percentages. For
than • 11_ perc;ent.
point.
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
F-12
[
L
L
·[
L
r·
1 . Eo--,
~
L
~
[1
f
li
r~
r·"
1;
L
[
p
1--
1 -L-,1
('
'
C
[ ',
-'
=:1
t:_
c
[
e
ll
L__:
r-
I
L
1-,
L
YEAR
· TABLE F .9.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT. PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
RESIDENT POPULATION
BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT
::.:.· .·· ... '
PERCENT IMPACT
. 1980 3570. 3570. o. .00
1981 3654. 3654. -o. .oo
--1-982 3738_. 3738 ·----· .---=:0.. -·-------. 00
.1983 3833. 3833. 0~ . .00
.1984 3953. 3953.--. ·-..!..o~ ·. .oo
_1_9.8 5 •l 0 8.0 .• :11.0 3_ t .2 3 t _______ :_ 0 1
1986 A20•l. 4216. 12. ..00
-1987 4319. 4337. 18. .00 -
_1988 ______ 4427._~----------·_4446 t _____________________ 19 • ______ :___---------·· -----· 00
"l989 ~~A•l p~-~·~ ~1 ;01 • 4 t ....J • ~ t .. J ,J • 'tJ t •
1990. 4662. 46i33. 22. . oo
_:L9.91 ___ -___ 4 788_. ~808 "----------J_9_t ___ ~----·--·-· ~ ~
:L992 - . 4932. 4969. 37. . · ...
1993 5101. 5268. 167. •00~
19 °4 ~-o"'" c:-r.:-3-... ,...,8 ,_ · • 4 - -.z. ___ ,.J.:; ._) t _-...}-...} .:; • ______ __;._. _-:-_ --__ .:...:... • ·-------·-:------· ··-·-0 5
199 .,. ~~~7 .,.s~6 "79 · ·
-...} ~-...}-...} • -...} ::. • ~ + --· ---· 0 5
1996 -...J876. . 61-...J7t ' .:...81. .04
~1.£.97 6_285...1..---' 653S..t 253 t ________ _
1998 6815. 7022. 207. .03·
1999 7512. 7656. \ 144. .02
_2000 ___________ 83A8 .• _____________ 8•119. ___ -----·-· -··--72 •. _ __ _ _ .01
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCHr
_SEPTEMBER·, __ 1982. --------_ ----···---· ______ ... ______ .. __
NOTE: "Percent impact"
percentages. For
than .11 percent.
point.
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
F-13
YEAR
,·:.~•""••" "•.'.•r,~--···-··• ·, .. ,-.:'~. ,·-··· ·•·•· ~ ••. _.·;. .. _::';_::~•-••
TABLE F.10.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
ENCLAVE POPULATION
.. -~ ----
BASE CAS~ !.tl£'A~T C£1S_~_0_~_§_g_~_u_I~ ... }_!i~·~-~T __ f:~F\CENT· IMPACT
1980 1663~ 1663. o. o~
1981 . 1666. : 1666. o. o.
[
r
f'
\'
T~
r-,
"""7"T982 16-6). ------i6-67:-o-. ----------··o ~-------
1:'\ 1983 1753. 1753. o. o.
1984 1801. 1801. o. o. 1985 ______ 182-7. ---2f08. ---------282:------------.. --. 0. 15
1986 1807. 1973. 166. 0.09
1987 1761; 2026. 265.
19""88 16""87-. 1972. 28-5.--~-
. 1989 1695. 2465. 770.
:L990 1706. 2174. 468. -:f99i ____________ f72(). --194"1·:--------------------221 ;·
0.15
-------6~17
0.45
0.27
0.13
r \J.
[
1992 174o. 230L 561. o.32 r
1993 1766. 2429. 662+ 0o37 . 1
.--~-___. - . --. ___ ...______ ··-------------·--·-··-----. --f :r99:1 -f"802. 228-9. · 4ss. o. 27 ,_
1995 . 1848. 2376. 528. 0.29
1996 1911. 2451. 540. 0.28
-1""997 f994 + -2535··:--------·540 :--·----------·· o"~ 27
1998 2105. 2646. 540. 0~26
1999 2253. 2794. 540. 0.24
-2o·o·o ------2A5o. 29<i':C.---------.5-40-:-··------------···----()~ 22
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS¥
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, --si::PTEMBER-;··1 <'J""s2:· . -..... --------------------------------------------.. ··--·
NOTE: "Percent impact 11 numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point. -
F-14
[
-[
[
r '<='
[
[,
t .. ,
--...___.
(
l.
(
l . . -.
~
L
~~
i
L ~-
r~
i
[
,r
l ~
[
[,
~-~
l~
('\
l u
..:-·..:..
~
C
r,.,
L.l
I"
b
,._
,__;
f ,,
J
\
l'
... ~: .. :.__~-:..... ::-.::..:.":2~_,_. -··-.. ..::·-... : ~--~-_; ··:::::;·_:_: __ :, . . --· -· -~ ~_:.__,_
TABLE F.ll.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
. TOTAL POPULATION
'
YEAR BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT PERCENT IMPACT
~1980------·-------5233 •. -. ·------·----5233.""-· --------···· .. o... -. o.oo
' 19a1· 5320. 5320. -o. -o.oo
1982 5405 ~ . 5405. -0. -0.00
-1983 ________ 5587_. 5587.·-----.-----------0.·-----------·-··---0. 00
1984 5754. . 5754. -o. -o.oo
1985 5907. 6212. 305. 0.05
_J986. ____ ----·-·-6011. _______________ 6189 •..... ----······ ...... 178 •... ---0.03
1987 "6080. 6363. 283. 0. 05
:L988 6114. 6417. 30A"lt 0.05
--1.989--. ·-------··· __ 6239_. ____________ 7040 .•. --------.. ----··· 801. _____ ---.. . 0.13
199"0 6367. 6857. 489. o.os
1991 6509. 6749. 240. 0.04
~1992 _____ -~----------.. 6672 •----------:-·--·-· 7270 t -·--····-··· ---------599 t .. ····•··· --0. 09
1993 . 6867. 7696. 829. 0.12
1994 7107. 7822. 716. 0.10
.. 1 9 9 5 7 4 0 6 • . --. . .. . . 8 2 :L 2 t . . .. . .. . 8 0 7 t 0 t1. :L
:LI/116 7707. 8608. 821. 0.11
;J.IJ!/7 n:~7<1. 9072. 793. 0,10
i !JIJ!J 8 1121 •.. -·· ....... 9 6 6 8 • . - --···· --7 4 7 • 0 • 0 8
1999 9765. 104~)0. 685. 0.07
2000 10798. 11410. 612. 0.06
---------------·-.. ---------··--..... .
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
INSTITUiE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,·
SEPTEMBER, 1982.
----:-------------------
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent im·pacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-15
---~~----~--·-
. ~-,_.,____-~,~ -_~.:....,.;::_::~: -~ •• : • __ :.:: .. £ :~ ~--~/' • ••• :......:~~-:..· •• -::.·, -~--·, ,. ··-·-·
TABLE F.l2.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
TOTAL RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
[
r
(i
\ -
L
YEAR
BASE CASE IMF'AC~--:~-~:_~i.:~~~L~~=---IMF'~-~T ---~-~~~:~-~T l~~· .. ;~-~ _J_'
1~80 1479. 1479. o. o.
1981 1522. 1522. o. o. r:
:L9!;!2 ~;:5_4_~ • :t~12 Q ___ -·--· __ 0 t ---~ ·.
1983 1594. 1594. o. .o. .
1984 1647. 1647. o.
1985 1697. 1820. 123.
I 1986 . 1739. 1807. 67.
o.
[ 0.07
0.04
. ·1987 1775. 1874. 99. 0.06
1988 1807. 1911. 105. g: g* l~
0.06
r-f989-----·-~---I·a5o·~--------2o·:2:L ~-----·----·-· ---171·~----·-.
i_~:~ _· ____ . ___ J-1~_;: _____ ;g}~~------·---·--ti_b_:_ ------------0. 06 rr·: ··------. .. ---
1992 1996. 2211. 215.
1993 2071. 2321. 250.
0. 11 ~
0. 12 .. ~
:1994 . 2168. 2435. 267. 0.1.2 ~~-~:~--------~~~~:--------;~~g:-· ---------;~~:---·--· .. ---. ----. g:~;-(
Ljj97 2688. 2992.. 304. 0. 11 :L?-<Ts i<is'l·. 33o9. 322-:-----------------o-:11 _1 __ _
1999 3390. 3734. 344. 0.10 __;
2000 3853. 4218. 365. 0.09
. . . [' 1
---------------------. ·--------------. ----·-_________ .. ., _______ ....
. ~
1-SOUF-:-CE---sc·IMP--}iOtiEL-i=.-R-O"JtcT·I ONSf _____ . ---------·--·-------.. -· --..... ---------
lNSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC rEsEARCH,
SEPTEMBER, 1982.
--·--· ---------
NOTE: 11 Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers toll percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-16
t
r·
tL,
L
1
·~-
L
11
Jl
'L
L
-,1
~~
I
I'
"
l ..
I
l--·.·
[,
l:
<'
i.
! \
,.
[
d'o...
r .
u
-~
I,,
___ )
'\
.· '. ··--'---~--~· .. ..:.,~--....:~----~:-,:....: ... \:.~.:::........ ..... -~;:....: ...
TABLE F. 13.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
BASIC RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
I· YEAR --~~:~~~ CASE IM~:fl-~I_s;_0SE ABSOLUTE IMPACT PERCENT IMPACT . --·-·-· ·-··-·-. -.---.. ------··---...
19~0 436. 436. 0.
1981 461. 461. o.
[i:~~ ------:*;:·------------:-*;: ------------g·:
1984 520. 520. 0.
T985------:---54A. --6"1:6".-------------------72 -;-------·---.-
1986 566 + 604. 39.
1987 585. 640. 54.
~-~ ~~~-------.. -~~; :-----·---. ---. ~*~: . --------~~:
I :L~"HJO 644. 697. 53. ·-:r<J9_1 _______________ 66"8-:· -----736-;---------------68.
1~92 . 699. 820. 121.
1993 ___ . --. .. -.. 7-1t ~---~---_9.20_. ___ -----.-- . ___ -179. -------
1994 /'97. 1012. 215.
1995 872. 1104. 232.
~996 __ .... _973.·------------1207. --... . 234.
uHi~----__ mi: ____ · _____ m;:___ _ ____ _ J~t
2000 1818. 20~3"2. 234.
L. S~UR·:~-~SCIMF' M~DEL
.INSTITUTE .OF. SOLIAL
SEF'TEMBEf.:, 1982. -.
F'f\OJECT IONS~
AND __ ECONOMI C . .fo:ESEAfo:CH,. . . ----_
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the dec.imal
point.
F-17
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
0.13 ...
0.07
0.09
0.10
0.11
o.os
0.10
0.1.7
O. 2~L ..
0.27
0.27
0.24
0.21
0.18
0.15 .
0.13
,;, __ :,,:.:,,"'-""::.,.i.::"~-->.;;~_::,""'-:..;.i!S..,:c:.:Oi;;-.;(!;;,;~,;;;;:-";.;;,;;.;;;.""';:;;..:.,;'i~~;;:;o;-.,"'-c.,;;'---"-"· : .. ,,~ _; :-~~-........ =-:~:~L-~.:;-:-::o-'~, ,.~ .. -.... -:::: :..T,_}.; ~-~; ~ .. ;·: -:.-.
TABLE F.l4.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
SERVICES EMPLOYMENT
---------·-------------
r-L
r
["I
r
YEAR Bt-1SE CASE IMPACt CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT F'D(CENT ·IMPACT J _
_12_8.0~---_____ 452..t
461.
_______ •l52_i _______________ Ot. ________________ _o , ____ \ _
1981 461. o. --o.
-1982 465. 465. o. o.
_:_1.983 ____ :482_. ________ A82.+... _______________ .. ___________ 0 •----··-----------------···-0 t __ [
1984 497~ 497. o. o.
~~:~-~ -------~~~~ ;~~·_: _______________ ;~_: ______________ g : __ g~---r
1987 520·~-561. 41 + 0. 08 -·
:L988 521. 565. 44. o~oa [ __ 1989________ -530.------------·-626 +._ ___ ..• -96. . ---0 d8
'1990 539. 601. 62. 0.11
1991 550. 590. 40. 0.07
_199? _____ -563__L___ 652_.__ _______________ 89_. ____________________ -_____ 0.16 __ r
1 9 9 3 5 81 • ' 6 9 5 • 114 • 0 • 2 0 -fL
. 1994 604. 712.
_1995_-_________ 633. ____ 752 ·-·-·------------· ·-·-·-
1996 673. 795.
1997 7~5~ 847~
_:_;t 998 ___ · --------.795 •--------------216 •----· ---·-· -------
1999 889. 1009.
2000 -1()00. 1117.
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
---INSTITLfTE OF SOCIAL-AN-ri--ECONot1IC l=i:ESEARC~-Ir
SEPTEMBER, 1982.
109.
119.
122.
122+
-121.__
120.
118.
-NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-18
0.18
0.19 ---f
0.18 l
0.17 -
.0.15
0.13
0.12
····[
L
[~ .
t
E
[
l
I 'L
l
"~
I
-\
__ j
. '
_)
"'l
TABLE F.l5.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL ROAD-CONNECTED CASE
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
YEAR BASE CASE lMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT PEfo:CENT HIPACT
198o 5_<;;-1. · ·s-9i-. -------·-·· · ---·--·o ."-""" __ " ____ -----·-· ----o-.--··· -" ·
1981 ..soo. 600. o. o.
1982 609. 609. o. o. -1-98·3------6-1"9. ---6f9:-----·--c---·-··o:-----·"--"---"""-· o. --"
1984 630. 630. o. o.
1985 643. 646. 3. 0. 00 -r"986 "-------6-57·-."-----------· 659-;-~-------"-------·2.----.. --·-·-·" --"·-·· o.oo
1987 670. 673. 3. o.oo
1988 682. 685. 3. o.oo
-:r989-----·----·"·--·-693;---------···702-~"--·-·----"-·-----8~ ··-· ---· '"' 0.01
1990 706. 711. 5. 0.01
1991 719. 721. 2. o.oo -i 992 ____ -----:--733-~ -------·· ----739 ;----6. " f\1 VtoV...L
1993 749. 756. 7. 0.01
1994 767. 786. 18. 0.02
1995 79-o. 815. ----25-.-----·--"·---o.o3
1996 81.8. -BAS.
1997 853. 883. -i 1i9 8---" ---------8 9 9 -;---"--"-----•"•"··-"·---9 25 ;· """ ---"--""--"-•• -·
1999 958.
2000 1035.
9/'9.
1049.
-:-sbTJR"Ce:-=::.:scrMP MOD-EL-F;F"<DJECTIDNSr ·--·"--·-----
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
SEPTEMBER, 1982. --------
30.
30. --·· . ---. --
27.
21.
14.
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-19
0.04
0. 0·1
0.03
0.02
o.oj_
'·· ··------"-"-~·-· . ·--~-.;_:...:-.__,._.--.:~·:-.. --..:.·~·,_·,.:::....::...::.::.:..:. , __ .:.....,..;;. -~ ... :;.:..:.:.:.-~-------. ·---~~~::O~...:,.,·.":·.::;:"c·:-·~ ....
:TcffilliE :=F •• TkO..
§J:lMP :MOilEL JHFrPXJ :fiR:QJECT.IOffS -FOR AlElJTI:AN ISLAfillS
-1..2 ]ffiBL 1UJA1)..-CDNI'fECTED CASE
-IUTAL :RE£IUENJ Atffi ENCLAV£ EMPLOYMENT
[
[
r
\
r,
~EA~ BASE_.CASF IMPAC:LCASC. ABSOLUTE . ..IMPACT ___ PERCENT lMPACL r
1980 3:142.. 31A2. O.
U
.9s . .3.188 ._ ____ 3188 .__ ______________ o_. _____________ ...
-982 3208. 3208. o.
983 3347. 3347. 0.
.9.8~L_ _____ 3•}48.. -----.3448 •--··-------.. . ---0 t ------·-
1985
1986
3524.
3546.
0-:~~ ------~~~~:
989 354S.
.1.9.9Q -----. :1595.t ____ _
1991 3657.
1992 3736.
1007 187~ . c::~~ ~--39;~-:-
1995 4143.
9.6 ~137.~-~·----
1997 4~82.
1998 5092.
3928. 404.
3779. 233.
___ 3899_. ___________ ----.. 363 •----·· -------
3883. 390.
4486. 941.
______ 4182 t ____________ ----587. t ____ ---
3988. 331.
4512. 777.
A7 49_. ______________________ 9 i 2 t._ __ . ____ _
•l/'2·4.
4951.
~204_! __ _
55:-~7 +
5954.
7 r."C"
...J..Jt
BOB.
831_-t__, --------------
845.
862.
11999.__ ·--· 5643 t -------------<>528 t
·1 2006 6303. 7209.
885 t.
906.
-..__I ----
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
IINSTLTUTE-OF_ SOCIAL_ANILECONOMIC RESEM~CH ,_.
I SEF'TEMBEf<, 1982.
NOTE:
~-
"'Percent impact"
percentages. For
than .11 percent.
point.
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
F-20
o. g: . ·-., '
o. .
-g:11··r-
o.o7 iL~
0.10 . --
0.11 1,--_~
0. 27 l
0. 16 '•.
o. o9 ,.-,
0.21 /,
0.24
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.14
"f._ __ .
c·
f
.,
. -~
c
[.~:
~-_"}
L
L
t
l
l L
c
I'/
I,
r
j
[
r---~
I
1.'
r
!
l j
r-;
l.'
~
[,
l.
r-·
I . : _,
·---;
•;'
L .
r··
,.::I
r·_-':,
l_j
i .
"·.'J
[,
c
f:
l;
l~
i ' t,_-:j
' ' LJ
.... ·.-.. : ..•.. :·
YEAR
:~·~. ---·: ·, ·---~ .
. TABLE F.l7.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT. PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1~2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
RESipENT POPULATION
BASE CASE H1F'A9T CASE ABSOLUTE'-~I~!PACT· PERCENT • IMPACT
-Pr8d. . 570. 35To. · · · · o. . oo -·-7"
1981 3654. 3654. -o.-.oo
i9B2-3738. 3738. -o. .oo --r<rs-3 3.833 :· 383~5'. ------·-<r .. -_.. ---.... --. ·:-oo
1984 3953. 3953. -o... -.-.. .oo
1985 4080. 4103. 23.··. . .01
19-86 ·1'204. 4-2T6. ~ 12. ~IJO
1987 4319. 4337. 18. .00
.. 1988 4427 + 4446. 19. -. oo
-. -0 ··,::.·-· r::'.=;r.:----------. ------. ·-----·-;-() 1 . 19c9 4~44. 4~/~. 31. ·· .
1990 4662. 4683~ 22. . •00
1991 . 4788. 4808. 19. .00
-:r<1<r2 4-932. :f966-~ ~f. .. r:--.61
'1993 5101. 5234. i34. .03
1994 5305. 5513. 208. .04
199 <=' --.-·.::-c-.::-::;· o=-s· ·1·--6---------;"'~·9··------------o·s ~ • ~~~/. .:J + _,;..~ • •
1996 5876. 6132~ 255. .. . ..04
1997 6285. 6511. 22~.-·. ·.o4
-r9-9s 6sT5. . 6·,i95-. 1 -;-9. .-o3
1 9 9.9 7 512. 7 6 2 8 + 116 • . 0 2
.. 2000 ---8348. ------. -· .8-1 17_._ ______ ----------69 ._ _______ ----~ 1
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCHr
_SEF:IEI'ii;EE: Y-1.982 .• __ _
NOTE: "Percent impac e• numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, • 11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-21
·--. · .. :.::.·. ··-~--·-·,._,. . ... ;_. -~~ .. '--
TABLE Fo 18.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
lo2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
ENCLAVE POPULATION
[
r~
[
L'
~EAR __ .EI ASE_CASE__ ·':.I MF: ACT_ CASE-. A B S 0 L U.TE_I ME' ACT __ F' ER CENT_ I Mf' ACT._ ~-·,
.. 1 9 8 0 16 6 3 ., :: .(\'. 16 6 3 6 0 • 0 • -
~~~-2. -·---~-~~~ •. >;. i~~~-·: g:--·-·------·--· g:---(-·.
1983 1/'53. 1753. o. o. .
__ 1_994_· __________ 1.801. . _______ lS<Il .. t ______________________ O_t ________ --·-··--·-0 t _______ _
1985 1827. 21o8. 2s2. o.15 r
1986 180?. 1973, 166~ 0.09 ~
.J..9..S2 :LZ~_t. ::;_Q46.~-. · 4g5t ________ o!_.t;s __
1 9 8 a 1 6 8 7 • 1 9 7 2 ~ 2 s 5 • o • 1 7 r~
1989 1695. 2~65. 770. o.45 L
_j_99Q __ _; ______ ;J,706..! ____________ 217.4L _____________ •t68t .. ----·····-·-···-· ... 0.27 ~
1991 1720. 1941. /" 221. 0.13 .. ,
1992' 1740. 2317. 577. 0.33 [!
•1001 i"76' ,...1... '78 "38 .'1 ~--l...Ll..CU 4~f!.t~ts C! .. : .t.. _____ _\)_,_ .. __ <~
1994" 1802. 2294. 492. 0.27
1995 1848. 2383. 535. o. 29 I\'
_1.9..9.6 ______ 1.9-1 1_, ____________ 24.60 t ____ 54.9.t. _________ 0 t 2<7 ___ \\
1997 1994. 2543. 549. 0.28
1998 2:L05. 2654. . 549.
__123_.9 ..2253..t ':)803_. _549 .•.
2000 2450. 2999 + 549.
o.26 r
__ o .•. 2A --IL.
0.22 ..... --. -........ ·------·---.,..--.. --·-.... c
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONSY
J.N_SJITUTE OF _S.QC:{f!.!,_ll_I~J.l __ ~CO_NOM.IC_BESEAKCH.~.
SEPTEMBER, 1982. -----·--£:
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages" For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-22
~= '1:::
L
[
L
l t~
L
--,
I ,
~-1
_.\
~'
~~
I
__ \
-·,
'
-'
~,
_ _j_\
,
..>"'
-'
;·\-:
YEAR
·~:-~~-:~_;::.~_ ... ____ ~-..:....-.:--..:...·~:..=~ ·:.:.~.::~"'<·~' -~· """"""-· ,_~~""'"'--""'---'"-"-~-. ----· ~--:,__:.:.. •. .::..---~·.,.::...~~--;.._~~ ·-~--...·.;..t:..-.:...:..::~-·"'-"~ J-~"'-~''-"'""-~'"-·-"!.c·~~:._,
SCIMP MODEL
BASE CASE
TABLE F. 19.
IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1~2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
TOTAL POPULATION
··.·.::-.-.:·;;. .• -"·:_ .. .-·. .. . :--;--:.-·.· .. ··
'·:·. ····-.· ..
.IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT F'ERCENT IMPACT
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
-INS"TITUTE. OF--SOCIAL-At~ti. ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
SEPTEMBER., 1982. .
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the de~il!lal
point.
F-23
YEAR
---··,;,.,,:· .... · -.. :,..,_~_:·_.:·,·.:=-~:..:c.-~:::....,_L -·-_·_:_.-----~-·-----..... .
TABLE F.20.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
TOTAL POPULATION
BASE-CASE I MF'ACT-:-CAS-E-ABSOLUTE:" I MF'AC-T--F;ERCENf""""i MF;A-CT __ _
1980 5233. 5233. 0. 0. 00 -:r . "I . . . .. . .. -- . --------. -----....... -·-·-
i ~~., . ~!~~. .';_x ;!~~. , ~g, : -g. oooo
~ ._ ,J ~ + ~. ·:· .. ~~~-~·:: :'-l .J + -~ · .. · - +
1983 5587 •.. ·• '> 5587. 0. 0. 00
-:r98'l 575~. 575-:.t. ·-=-o. .::o -~ o"o--
1985 5907. 6212 + 305. 0. 05
1986 6011. 6189. 178. 0.03
> i :~-~ f~~-~: ····; ·_;~;·r-. · -~!-~~:-------_----.,-;: c·-~~1.-::r>r. .. ·_ ---g :-g;
'1989 6239.. ,;; 7040. ·,· 801.· 0.13
-1-990 -63.67. ·6s57. ~ta·9: ·o:o8
. 1991 6509. 6749. 240. 0.04
1992 6672. 7283. 611. 0.09
-1993 6867. . 7"678~-------. 8f1 ~~-.. -· ----------0 ~ 12
·1994 7107. ·•·;. 7807. 700. 0.10
·'1995. 7406. :_ 8199. 793. 0.11
-199"6 7787. 85-92. aos·:-----··----·-·o-:-io
:l997 8279. 9054. 775. 0. 09
1998 8921. 9649. 729. o.o8
-i-999_____ 976s:----·----·-ro43f:------·------------·---666. ---· ------o. o7
2000 10798. 11416. 618. 0.06
·---------·-........... ----·-· -----·-·
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS~
-INSTITUTE ·a·F---SciCIAL-Ai-..ib--ECDi~ONI C-RE:~rEAf~C}i;----------·-·--------
SEPTEMBER, 1982.
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-24
r
L
r L.
r ~-
r:
r· t
1-·
I L ,.
L"
[i
('
I
IL,
(
[
(.
L
[)
r iL
c
1--L--..:
l
r L
L
~-1'
---,
\
_ __j
~-
'
_)
-i
__j
-;
J
--·--~-~__;_ ... -·
TABLE F.2l.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1~2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
BASIC RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
l£AR. BASE_CASE_ __ lMF~ACI._CASE ___ .ABSOLU.TE_IMF~AC.T __ t'ERCENT_IMF'ACT. __
1980. 436.
198_1: ,. ' ·161.
1982 467.
1983 492.
436.
461.
~l67.
492.
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
1984 520. 520. o. o. o-m ·----g~~: ·-· ":~tl~ ~~~~---------it,, --,-.,-----ur
19sa 6o4. 662. 5s. o·; 10
1989 627·. 693. 67o 0.11
:L990 644. 697. 53. 0.08
r.f9·9-J ---668·;-· :-·-736-;--------.----·----68 ~------------------· -o .10
I 1992 699. 804. 105. 0.15 Lt_9_9_~ 74_1. 9os_. _______ _. __________ 1_{>_4 ! _____________ o. 22
1994· 797. 1008. 211. 0.26
1995 872. 1097. 225. 0. 26
1996 973. 1198. 225. 0. 23 DIU----mr ----~~!F--------~~r---~=~---H~
2000 1818. 2043. 225. 0.12
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
INSTITUT~ OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
_JI -!:i'~F·-TEF1BEF0--fS>"8.2. ---------
NOTE: "Percent impact"
percentages. For
than .11 percent.
point.
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
F-25
TABLE F.22.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
SERVICES EMPLOYMENT
f
r
r
\
r·.
I .'
jYEAR-· ---BASE c~s~---. -.. ~HF;ACT-CA-SE~-A-BSOLUTE IMPACT. P_ERCENT-rM·F;Ac·r .r
-L;_?80 -452. > 452. • .,:: · .. 0. L
1<rs1 - · 461. 46-i. --o-~
1982 . 465. ~t65 + 0 + 0 +
1983 482. ~ts2. o. o. [~.
[I984 497. •f97·-. ----------0 + -----().
. 985 509. . .. . 557. 48. 0. 09 !. ..
?86 5_16. ~43. 27. 9--!95 __ !-
. 1 9 8 7 52 0 + 5 61. 41 + 0 • 0 8 --
:l988 521. 565. 44. o.oe r'
-_1_'{_85' _____________ 530 _____ 626. _____________ 2.6.. 0 .•. 18-l'
-. 1990 539. 601. 62. 0.11 -
-1991 550. 590. 40. . 0.07 ~9.92. . ----563. -----650•----------·----·----,.B6.---...-:---~~--------0 •. 15 -~--
1 1993 . ss1. 693. 112. .. o. 19 L: I: 1994 604. 711. 107. Od8 L.i..2.£.,-· . 633. Z5L.____ .1.7_._ -0 •. 19.-:-:f·
1996 ~73. 793. 120. 0.18 t
1997 725. 8•l5. 120. 0.17 -
~-~;~---------------~~~:-----------~b3j:----------ii;: g:i~ r
2000· 1000. 1115. 116. 0.12 L
.
rr~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~F· s ~ g ~~t---~ ~ ~ J ~ g~ ~ g~ ~b .. F\ ES·E·A R c H-~----
1 SEPTEMBER, 1982.
NOTE: 11 Percent impact 11 numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-26
[
r: l~
~ ;L
c
t
L
f 1 L~
L
~
---
,-
-~.
<';:
---,
. ·~1
J
-~
_ _j
--;
YEAR
TABLE F.23.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1~2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
BASE CASE IMPACT CASE. ABSOLUTE IMPACT PERCENT IMPACT
sou F~ CE --s ciM F;-MOill~: LT=· R oj E cYr oN s -;-~ ~~--~-~-~-~--~-~ -------------------------.... ----..
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
SEPTEMBER, 1982. ---------------·-. --·--·-~----·-··---.·--------------
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-27
YEAF~ -----··
TABLE F.24.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
1.2 BBBL REMOTE CASE
TOTAL RESIDENT AND ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT PEf~CENT IMPtaCT
1980 3142. 3142. o. o.
1981 . 3188. 3188. o. o.
-T9H2 --· -32os·. -----------3208~------------------------·o:--··------------·o·.·-····----
r L , ..
' .
r
l
r 1 !
r·
\
L
·~983 3347. 3347. o~ o. r,_
1984 3448 ~ 3448. 0. 0. L
:r9ss -3~i24-.-----392B. -----:<lo-4. <f:-1"1-
1986 3546. 3779. 233. o. o7 r
1987 3536. 3899. 363. o.1o 1
1988 3493.. 3883~-------------390.--· ·---··o. 11 ~..._
1989·· 3!'545. 4486. 941. 0.27 h,.
1990 3595.. 4182. 587. 0.16 ,.
------------·----;--.. --'-··--·------------------------------·~· -~--·'!. :l991 3o57. .598a. ~.n. v.O't '"'
1992. 3736. 4510. 774. 0.21
1993 ~5837. 4761. 923. o.2•1 r ---.. --... -----.. ----·-----------· ·----------------·· ..... .... I 1994 3970. 4728. 758. 0.19 \
1995' 4143. 4956. 812. 0.20
~ :-~-; --;~~~;: . ----~;~~~--------------~~~~--------------------~: i~ r
1998 5092. 5961. 869. 0.17 ··"
1999 56•l3. . 6535. 891. 0. 16 -2600 _________ ······-·· 6303.-----··---7204: -----· 901.. 0 + 1•l
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
_r.N_STITUTE __ Of __ SOCIAl._ANr!_ECONOMI.C_RESEf'-lf<CH '-------____ .-__ .. ____ .. _ ..
SEPTEMBER, 1982.
NOTE:
.-
"Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to ll percent rather
than .11 ·percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
,
F-28
E
[:
L
c
r L_...:
{
r L
r
r-,
(
I
'-·
r---';
r--,
l ..
l."
r··
LJ
r--:
l >.
(-'
I
L.~
l_
[I
r~
l.J·
c.
[
r --,
l·~
f"'
~ ;
~'-
r--·
L
l::;:
r-
L
--~~'-'-'·'"·-c .. :. -·-.... ----'"~--·-
.-TABLE F.25.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2.4 BBBL CASE
RESIDENT POPULATION
YEAR BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT F'Ef\CENT IMPACT
1980 3570. . 3570.
-1981 ~ . 3654. 3654.
o.
·--0 t
. -. 1982 3738. 373..§ .. ! . -0. -
1983 3833. 3833.
1984 3953. 3953.
o.
-o.
·---,~--_2 3 .t.ll ___ _
';, ,.,:. 15 •' '
• 0 0 .
.00
.00
.00
.00
.01. :co 86 4.:..04. --,.,, -4.:..18.
[]
1.9_85 _____ .__ _4~80 . .t ·. _______ A~_Q_3 ~-
~~ . :-:!~~: ,:·,:::· ,,j::~ -_ ~-!~~: -< -:-::,:;,:~.:.'~-, -f~ t: ···)> ~-
1989 4544. 4577. 33. .01
1990 4662. 4687. 25. .01
~19.91 _____ ~1788. _______ -·····---~809.t_____ _20·~-. ________ Jlo
1992 4932. 5035. 104. .02
1993 . -5101. 5429. 329. .06
, .. -1994 · =;3o_~ _5Z.0.6 · :t<U.t .. ·.> . o s
1995
1996
--~997_
1998
1999
2000
5557. 6053. -495. .09
5876. 6428. 551. .09
6285. ·-.. 6827. . -. ---.... 541.-.. .09
6815.--7318. 503. .07
7512. 7955. 443. .06
8348. 8712. 364. .04 ----·-·------··--·-·-------· . -------···· ~---------------------------------
soiiRct=-..:.:-s·t':iMP-~i!'5riE~L-F·F.:oJccf·r-cYt~~;-;-·. --------· -----------------
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
.SEPTEMBER, 1982. -------· ------------------· ·-----------------· -------------·-· -----..
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point ..
F-29
;~·-;·
TABLE F.26.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2A BBBL CASE
ENCLAVE POPULATION
YEAR BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE-IMPACT
[
r
(
\
r~~.
F'ERCE_NT _ll:!f'~C_I__l-
_i_:~~-. i_~1~:~:-i.~-~~;________ _ _g_~~--------------g~---~· L
1982 16o7t , 1667. O. .. 0.
1983 ' 1753 t' .; . 1753.
1984 1801. 1801.
-r9S5 r8·2·7. 2-:tos-.-'-----'---·
. 0. . .. , . o.
0. 0. 1
:rs2-.-----------o~T5 ___ L.
1986 1807. 2013. 205. 0.11
1987 1761. · 2105. 344. o.2o I' -1-98Ef _________ f68i:------T932-. ·-.. 24·::;-.----.---------------o~ 15 t
1989 1695. 2505. 810. . 0.48 --
-~_??~ 1 ?_~6. ___ 22~~-·---5_;2_?_• ________ -___ 0_~_31 f'•
1991 1720. 1961. 240. 0.14 1.
1992 1740. 2587. 847. 0.49 ,_,
1993 1766. 2750. 983. 0.56 . ---,--.-,:2395. ------594--. -·---,--··-------·--·-·0 :33-r~ ~994 -1802-.---·
. 1995 . 1848. 2521. 673. 0.36 \.~
1996 1911. 2635. 724. 0.38 -fcFi7 1 <i9 4 • i7i 9. "\"-;7 2 4-.-------------0-. 36. --(, .
1998 21os. 2s3o. 724. o.34 L
1999 2253. 2978. 724. 0.32 ---'···>ooo-·--------·--;..> .. ~"~o ----------------·---31-'"" · .... --·---------·-----·-----·-· 7,.,4--------o ·-ro
~ 4..o t~ + I ...J • .:... • + "'~
---------------------~--------------·----------------.. --------.. -----· ...... ------.
SOURC~--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
_I.NS.IlTUTE __ Q.F_80CIAL._ANrL£CONOM.I.G_ .RESEARCH,------·-------------___ ... -··---_
SEF'TEMDEf\, 1982.
NOTE: "Percent impac t 11
percentages •. For
than .11 percent.
point.
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
F-30
[
[,
r-l~
(~
L
t
f l . c.;
L
,._,
I
~-·
r'.
;...:~'
I ,
,f.~
l_.·
l,.·
; .. """"
i
!
__,
~
r"'
___ }
YEAR
_15'80
1981
1982
TABLE F.27.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2.4 BBBL CASE
TOTAL POPULATION
-----· ------·· --. ----·-
BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT PERCENT IMPACT
1:"2.33. 5233.__ __o_t _____ o._oo ___ _
5320. 5320 + -0. -0 + 00
5405. 5405. -0. -0.00
-1.983--5587_. 5587 •------------.--0 •--. -------· ---·-0. 00
1984 5754. 5754. ·-o. -o.oo
1985 5907. 6212. 305. 0.05
_1_2.86 ___ .01.1. ._ ______ 6231_, 22.0_. O.t04 __
1987 6080. 6447. 367. 0.06
1988 6114. 6375. 262. 0.04
_1_989 _ 623.9 __ Z082 + 643 ____ O...t 14 __
1990 6367. 6920. 552. 0.09
1991. 6509. 6770. 261. 0.04
_l.£.1:2 6...622 -L----'-------L7622. 95Q 0 .1._4 _
1993 6867. 8179. 1312. 0.19
1994 7107. 8101. 994. 0.14
_1_9_9_~ 7_406. 857~_ .. _ __1168_.-_0 t16 ___ _
1996 7787~ 9063. 1276 •.• _--0.16
1997 8279. 9545. 1266. -0.15
_j_£.28 8.221 _ _.__ ____ .._.._0_1_48.. 1227_t ______ Ot 14 __
1999 9765. 10933. 1168. 0.12
2000 10798. 11887. 1089. 0.10
-----------------------------------------------------------------
_S 0 U R C E=: -::sC.l11 2 __ t:l 0 I! ELF' R OJ E C T 10 N S r ____________________ ------·-·--_______ -·----· _
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
SEF'TEf1BER' 1982.
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-31
YEAR
--1980
1981
. 1·982
-r9-tY3
1984
TABLE F.28.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2.4 BBBL CASE
BASE CASE
14-19.
1522 •. .. :
1542 •
f5"94.
1647.
TOTAL RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
IMF'ACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT F'ERCENT I MF'·ACT
1479.
1522.
. . 0 ~ •.
.· 0. ':
o.
o •
1542·
1594.
. o.-·· 9.•--
o. 0.
1647. 0. 0.
1985 1697. 1820. 123. 0.07
-1-98.6 1·739-. ----fsi9-~------so:-----------·o:o5-
1987 1775.. 1899. 123.' 0.07
1988 1807. 1899. 92. 0.05
-. -1989 f850. 2034. f84. -----0:10
1990 1889. 2027. 138. 0.07
1991 1937. 2053. 116. 0.06
-r992~------l99·6--.------222·s·;-------------229 ~-----------··a .11 ...
1993 2071. 2327. 256. 0.12
1994 2168. 2445. 277. 0.13 -r995_. __________ 2295. 25s·a·;·----293-.-------o~-13 __ .
1996 2464. 2771. 307. 0.12
1997 2688. 3008. 320. 0. 12
-T99·a 2987. :3'32-4. 337~--------o:il. ___ _
19?9 3390. 37•l9. 359. 0.11
2000 3853. 42·10. 387. 0.10 -----------· ··---__ , . --------------·"· -----·-----· ....
-CrlJJ(::r'J:':..::-:.:·ci,-. T MJ:• ...... Miinl:"( ·-J:q~;h IJ:.-,-.·T T il1\IC.
U\.J\-11'\Wt-<-J'Io..t.l.ltl 11....-.&..'"-1-I I'\\..1'\J-\o~ I .J.'-'I'Ii .. JT
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
SEPTEMBER, 1982. ---·
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point. ·
F-32
r t.
L
r
t
r\
J .,
\. '
L
ri
L.
r,
\
r·
I L~
r·
l.
L.
[
,[
L:
,f '
~c
r L;,
i ~-
i
t"'
L
_,
I:
__i
__;
,.
LJ
~-~
i'
TABLE F.29.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2.4 BBBL CASE
BASIC RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
LYEAR ___ ·-·-BASE_CA.SE ·. IMF.'AC.L.CASE ____ ABSOLU.TE-IME:ACT-E'ERCENT_-IJ"U=·ACT_.
1980 436. 436. . . o. o.
-1.98L 461 .... -... -· -----"---.461 •-···-----0...--.-. -··--.---0 •. -----, ~ m ' ' m_;.~i - . . ~~i: ·_ •·:• ~~.~~;.g ;r ;:: .. . g : __
1985 544. 616. 72. 0.13
1986 566. · 611. , 45. o.o8
_1981.. ___ .:_ __ 585. __________ 652 • ________ ·-··---_____ 6 z_. _____ _.;_ -----··· ___ o • 1.1.
1988 604. 656. 51. o.o8
1989 627. 700. 73. 0.12
-15i90 __________ 64.~ •.. ·.. 706 ·-----· ... _____ ;_ 62 ·----·---··--0. 10
1991 . 668. 739. 71.. 0.11
. 1992 . . 699. 825. 126. 0.18
.,---1.2_9. . __ ZA1.~ 9_44_._ _203t ___ ~--------· _ 0. 27 __
1994 .. 797• 1051. 254. 0.32
1995 872~ 1155... ,.283.. 0.32
_1_2.£.6 _______ . ___ 9.?3_ ... i2Z1.~ 298t ______________ Ot.31_
•1997 1109.. 1407. 298. 0.27
1998 1293. 15'711. 298. 0.23
_..1<].99 ______ . ____ 1543.____ _1841 •... _. ·-·-· ------.... 298. ____ .. -0.19
2000 1818.. 2116. 298. 0.16.
--------------·--------------------------------· -·----····---·-··
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
_INSTITUTE_Of_.SOCIALAND ___ ECOi':WMIC_RESEAF.:CHr.
SERTEMBER, 1982. ·. ;::~ .... ~
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-33
YEAR
TABLE F.30.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2.4 BBBL CASE
SERVICES EMPLOYMENT
BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT
r
\
[
r
t
-----------· -· c~
PERCENT IMPACT .
-1..9ao__ ____ .. ___ :452_ _ ________ :452_. ___________ o .___ _ .. ____ o ._ _ . __ J
1981 461. 461¢ o. o. \.
465.
!18."
. ·.·:·
497.
509.
516. ---
•520 •. r L-
.f' t
·-f~
I f .
·~-~
[
L
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS, [
--INSTITUTE--OF-SOC IAL-ANII-ECONOM-IC-F\E-~'fEA-RtH, ---------·-----
SEPTEMBER, 1982. [~
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-34
E,
(~
{__
L
r u
L
,·'1
1 ..
l.
i
I
---J.
~
"--l
('
L_j
l __ _;
i .
L ..
i b
YEAR
TABLE F.31.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2~4 BBBL CASE
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
BASE CASE IMPACT CASE ABSOLUTE IMPACT
· .. -.·
PERCENT IMPACT
'-r""9s-o-!f9l. 5·9r:-· o-~----o.
1981 600. 600. 0. 0.
1982 609. 609. 0. 0. ---198 3 6T9. ----,--6· fci:--·--· o . -------(): .....
1984 630. 630. ·. ·o. o.
1985 643. 646. 3~ o.oo
-r9s-6 6.57. --659-. -------2-. -----------·o. oo
1987 670. 67·:1. 4. 0.01
1988 682; 684. 3. o.oo -f9B9 _____ ------693-.-----------702:--------------------~c:F;--.. _.__ ··-·-·--. o. <H
1990 706. 712. 6. 0.01
1991 719. 722. 3. o.oo ---i-9 r; ·:r-~---73-3. 7-4 2 ~ rr.--------------o ~ o 1
1993 749. 766. 17. 0.02
__ 1994 ____________ . __ Z62.. ______________ 80•l.___ __37_. ---~ .. 05 .
.. 1995 790 + 835. 45 + 0. 06
1996 818. 873. 55. 0.07
_1997.. __________ . ___ 8~3 •. -·-···----·-------914 •.. ____ .. , ---·-·-····· 61.--.. --.. 0.07
1998 899. 958. 59. 0.07
1999 958. 1012. . 55. 0.06
_2000. 1035 ·-·----.--------1 083 •····-···--... __ ----------~A 7 •---. ____ .. ----___ 0. 05
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONSv
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
-SEP-TEMBEr\ '--1982... ·-------·--------. -------······ ------. -----~ -·-
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
F-35
TABLE F.32.
SCIMP MODEL IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
2.4 BBBL CASE
TOTAL RES!DENT AND ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
....,..Y..EAR. ____ .BASE._CASE IMPACL.C.ASE __ ABSOLUTE_IMEACT_-___ f'Ef\CENT_lMF:ACT
[
r
r
c·,
... :"';. r -.
~ ~ .. =~-;..::. 1980 3142•~·i;!;:;''"' 3142. o. o.
· -1 o<=11 "oa ···~~;.·.::,· 318B 0 0 1··'
-AJ.J,l. . _.b..,Y. ~-----~····· + .. --· .. • _ _1 __
1982 3208. 3208. o. o.
1983 . 3347. 3~47. o. ·o. l-
..,...1.28~ 34_48_ __3l48 t __ . ___ 0 t---------·-·····-· 0 t ..... -~
:;'1985 3524. 3928. 404.. 0.11
··~:~; ig;:: !-~~~· ;~-~~: :::>· g~-~~-L
1988 3493. 3831. 337. 0.10
1989 3545. 4538. 993. 0.28 r-
J.99<L-___ 3595 .. -fl26 L _665 • --:--:-0 • 19 ____ \
1991 ' 3657. '< ·: 4014. . 357. 0. 10 .. ·
l:_:~-~~i*: :jfi::-· · i.~i~:_ 1 ~~.;_. --~: ;; __ r
1994. 3970. 4840. 870. 0.22 L
1995 4143. 5109. 966. . 0.23
_1996 ~4375j ~~t06. 1031 ..•. ----... -----0.24 __ r·
1997 4682. ~727. 1044. . 0.22
'1998 5092. 6154. 1061. 0.21 -·
~·;~·66 ~~~;-. *~-~-:--------·--i~·~~·:------·----· -·-g:i~--L
SOURCE--SCIMP MODEL PROJECTIONS,
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
-SEF;-TEMBE-R}--fcJ82~--·-·--------·-..... -... ·-·
NOTE: "Percent impact"
percentages. For
than .11 percente
point.
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
F-36
c
[
E\
c·
f -
\
L
r u
L
3SVJ AS SONVlSI NVIln31V ~0~ SNOilJ3rOHd lJVdWI 31nlOS8V 1300H dWIJS 9 XION3ddV J ~J .rl c. , I
l ] -~1 J .J j -J rl =1 ]
.-~
I -
I
L .. l
rr·
l -·
r, ~
l '
r·"
l.
r,
l ,~'
r-,
l , \.
l_ __ ,.
,..__,.
'.;
[
....,
u
r
L
L ..
[
L~
~ ·.
L.
r-
~ . I,-
'-'·
Table G. 1.
-Table G. 2.
Table G.3.
Table G.4.
Table G.S.
Table G.ti.
Table G.?.
Table G. 8.
LIST OF APPENDIX G TABLES
Absolute Impacts: Resident Population
Aosolute Impac_!:s: Enclave Populatfof!
Absolute Impacts: Total P6pulation
Absolute Impacts: Total Resident Employment
Absolute Impacts~ Basic Resident Employment
Absolute Impacts: Services Employment
·Absolute Impacts: ~overnment Employment
Absolute Impacts: Total Resident and Enclave Employment
G-3
~---. -· ~ -=. ,__:__.: -::' •. -·-:. ~ • .:-:~~.,...,
. I i._J J J
I
[
~
l . ,.
L_ ~·
l-
~-~
[
[
r
I ' L .. )
r~
l.
~~,
L,
c
r
-·. -·
=5
L
[
[
L
r I . b'
[ _·
TABLE G. 1.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
RESIDENT POPULATION
L2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year ~6-BBBL Case Case··· Remote· Case 2A BBBL ·Case
--o-:----1280 .:/:.:· O/ o. o. 1981 -o. -o. -o. :. -o • 1982 -o. _ _:-:0 .•. --o. . -0 t 1983 06 o. ---6-.-o • . ·-1984 -o. -o. -o. -o. 1985 23. __ 23 .• _ . 23.·? _23.t. 1986 ': 17'. 12. -12-.-15.-1987 ~---18. '23 • ... ·-.:•··18.; 18. .. 1988 20. 19t.. 19. '_jJ_j_ 1'989 .. --. -3L-33. 32. 31. 1990-----22. ..,.,. 28. 22. .:....J• 1991 ~)I::" __ 1..9 t_ ' 19 + ·. __ 20 t -· ...:......Jo
·I QQ'? -J".if-. 104.
.. I I-34. 37. -1993----·-··--~
i34. 329. 218 •. 167. 199-4 •336t. 228 t--~9~-· ..A.O~ 1995 431 •. 279. . 259 •. : 495. -T996-"'"44T:-· 281. ···.:.255~-: ... : 551. 1997 416. 253 t._ 226 •. 541. 1998 372. 207. -17'9~-503. --:1999 --310. 116. 443. 144. 2000 230.-72 •. __ 62_._ 364. -----
G-5
TABLE G.2.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
ENCLAVE POPULATION
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
. 1985'
~1986
1987
1988
1989-
1990
.. 19.9.1_
1992
1993
,..1-9-9-4-
1995
1996
-1-9-9.2.:_
:L998
1999
.2000_
~6-BBBL·Case
o.
o.
o.
o~ :
0 •.
282~ i
217-:-)
237.
276.
762.
559.
--302 ·--
353.
536.
--605 ~...,.
666 •..
675.
-675--
675.
675.
675.
f.2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
····Case · · · · · Remote· Case
o.
o.
~--·-o~
o.
o.
-282---;---
166.>"
265.· -iers·-.-
770.
468.
---221 ;-
5"61.
662.
--488 ~--
528.
540.
540·-.-
540.
5~1.0.
540 ;-----
G-6
o~
_0 .. *-o.
o. _o._
282.l
·'166/1
_;fQ_;/_ ~-.:
285 •.
770.
____ 468 t_
221~
577+
_. _Q.ZS.L
492.
535.
_549_.~
549.
549.
_549 . ...:.
549.
2A BBBL ·Case
o.
o.
~07
Y''o:~;o;.'
;{!} 0 •· ·.,
282-.-
205.
; 344.
-. -'">-4···;:;-... ~~
810.
527.
-240-~---
847.
983. 594··;--
673.
724.
-72~
724.
724.
724~ -·-
...
[_
r
r-,
I
c.
r L
L.
r
1..-
c
r~
t r,
L-·
r
L
[
L
E
c
L
(:
~ -(L
[
r•
l.
r··~
l.
~--.
LJ
l."
l r '-~
,~
l_~
~~~
i...::.:f
r·:
l
,-
L,_.
r·-,
L:
I
('-
f--
L'
TABLE G.3.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TOTAL POPULATION*
Year
1'?80
[]
.f:H_
982
983
2R4.
1985
1986
0582.
988
989
.9.9Jl_
1991
1992
.99.3..:
1994
1995
.1997
·-:1998-
1999 . . ----. '2000
~6-BBBL·Case
o.
_ __::_0_._
-o • . o.
___ -_..O_t_
305.
234 .-.
____ 255 ·-
296.
794.
__ 587 •. _
334.
387.
___ 754 •-.-
941.
1097.
_.1..116..~.-
1091.
1047.
985.
905.
r. 2 BBBL
Road-Connected
·Case
---·-··-0 ·---o.
-o. _·_o •. _ _:
-0.
305.
.. 178.--
'283.
30·1.
801 •---·-
489.
240.
599 .....
829.
716.
807 •.
821.
793.
747.
685.
612.
G-7
1. 2 BBBL
Remote·Case
__ _:o.
-6~--
·-o.
0. '·. ---o-.-
3os.
178.
. ·.:. :2"83. > .
304.'
801.
-A89-.-
240.
611.
--'811·.--
_700.
793. i
-. -865:--l
775. ;
729. l
----666;·.-
618 •
2A· BBBL ·Case
___ o _ _t_
-o.
-o.
t-g:.':
. .· .. · 305·. <
~2.0.2
367.
~262~
_S43t_
552.
261.
_p_~O..t_
-1312·.
(]94.
-'-1168 t..,....
1276.
1~66.
.122Z.t._
1168.
1 ()89.
~-··'· ,_ "·' --.
~..__ __ --·--'-..:·_: .:!:...~~-..:.. •• ---···-·'
TABLE G.4.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TOTAL RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
1.2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year ~6·BBBL·Case · · · Case···· Remote· Case 2~4BBBL·Case
-----::'1980 o. {). 0 •. <0 •. 19"8""1-o. o. o. <·. 0 +
1982 o. __ o_.t_ __ o_._ o.
1983 o. o. . 0 •. o. 7T984-;_ .. '< ' Ot: o. o. o.
;1985 "123. 123. -1.23._ 123. 1."1986 ·.··; 94;' 67 0. 67. ---80 ..
,..987--:-: .. -. -ro-r;-99. 99., 123 1988 113. 105. _105 ... _ 92.
1989 180. -··i 71·:-171. 184-.-
T99r -T59; 119. 119. 138.
1991 145. 110. _11.0._ .116. ----··· --· -229·:-· :!.992 202. 215. 197.
19"9"3--25"9-:-250. . 246. 256.
1994 273. 267. _265._ 277.
1995 .288. --28o·;--278. -293-.-
:1996 -299~ 291. 289. 307.
1997 312. ~ 304. _.3.02..L.-320. -...... , ... ) 319 • 337~-1998 329. ~ ... ..:-.
19~{(:;--352-;-344. 342. 359.
2000 380. 365. ~.351_t_ 387.
G=8
[
r
L -
['
·C;
c
[,
r L~
L
r·
l
'l L.·
,-.
L
L
[
{~
L
(' t:
L
L
f I ..
fL
L
--,
,.__.,
,.,
i .. ~
L.
r"
l.
l -
L '
' "F• ..
-cd
,.
u
f-
G
.:;_ -"' · ....... ·~-
TABLE G.S.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
BASIC RESIDENT EJ~PLOYMENT
1.2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year .6 BBBL·Case Case · · ·-· Remote-Case 2A BBBL Case
1980 o.-·o • o. o.
. 1981 o. o. o. ~-0 +..,--
_1_9.82_ __ o._ o. o. .o.
1983 o. o. o. . ,. o.
1984 o. o. 0. i _._Q__._-
-1985-__,.72._ -7-2-.-',~~~-:~ 72.
1986 ~6 . 39 • 45. .:J • ·•
1987 . 59. 54. . ..J4. t --67.-.
__1_2.a8_ _-·_--65._ --·-58~-58---:--' 51.
1989 74. 67. 67. 73.
1990 76. 53. 53. __ :_ 62 ·--------·-· 68~-__1_5l_'l1_ _87t_ -68 ~--71.
1992 128. 121. 105~ 126.
1993 215. .12'9 "--' 16•l. -. 203. __
.122!1 ~40.t_ 21s. 1
--21-i--:--; 254.
19~5 266. 232. I 225. \ 283.
1996 266. 234. ! _;;;.~--! __ 298 t ---
___1_9.92_ _266 ·-234. .:....:... . 298.
1998 . 266. 234.
. 225. : 298 •
1999 2~6. _234 •--225. 298.
:?QQQ' _266-t_ 23•l +
-225-.-298.
G-9
-·-----·-·· ·-___ _,_ ---"..;,.; __ ~ __ ,_:.:..,~·.t..':...;:..;., ~-_.:. ~-:·_._, .:.-::..:·.;.~::·--·~ -"~-~ • ...:-'-"·i:...~;;.;.:,~~=---:_...;_.;_,.;.._···~--~C:.:...:..~::.~-: .. ::. . .::.-.0"-."· ·: ."-.·--~..:......:a!::;.-.:: _ _:._ .... ~~-........ ,;:,.:_;;_.,:.sL.::,'~""\.\,.;;~~ .. ;.1
TABLE G~6.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
SERVICES EMPLOYMENT
f. 2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year ~6-BBBL·Case ····Case · · · · · Remote· Case 2A BBBL Case
1980 o. _____ O_t_
1981 o. o. o. __Q..._
1982
o-:-
o~ o. o.
:1983 , . o.· ___ :_ 0 ·-···
o. :_:: 0 ~
1984 o. o. o. Q. i:
1985 48. 48. o-.·-' 0.
. 1986 37 • _27_t_ 48. 48.
1987 __ 39. 41. 27. -.·33 +
19-88 45-:-44. 41-.-53.
19.89 97& 96,._ 44. 38.
1990 77. 62. _ _9_6b-__192 ~_:
-:r9"9'1 --1:"--40. 62. 70.
..~4.
1992 69.
QQ 40. 43. _....,,_._
1'993 110. 114. 86 ·--
119.
--:-1,'9'14 "'1""297 109. 112. -1'55.
'1995 .. 145. _119. 107. 134 •.
;1996-148. 122. -1.17_._: 152.
:-19·9;-14-a-. 122. 120. I '7"[6:f:-·
1998 147. 121. 120. 165.
1999'
I 164.
146. 120. ___ 119t_
-:-2o-oo--144-.-118. 117. 163-:--
116. 161.
G-10
[
[
r-~
·C
[
L
r·
t.
[
r-
l
't L---
r
[
[
[
c
=J
[;
[
[
L
l ·c..:
l'
,-~
I'
L.
l .. .-
.---,
l_,.
r~~
L"
I;
I l.o
i .
~ . \
'~
r--""1
-~
,.
c.:
,_,
r---::
r -
I • "-'
--'·-' __ .:., ___ , ___ ..:.._:.··. --'---•--'·''---·-.. ·· ·--~~-.-~j~::..:~o:'i;.-....:.:__ :-.:.-~ ___ "j:: .. ---~~ .,, '-·' .·,_,..·_-·j.~l_:·:-;,:.::..:.:7.;;..;_~_.:i:.i."~~....::.:_;C;~:_;,, ... ~~·-_j~~ . .,:,. ---.•. ~-_ _,..._.,_ __ _
TABLE G~7.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
L2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year ~6BBBL·Case · · · Case······ Remote· Case 2~4BBBL·Case
-~·o-: --,-----··-o-.-_1.980 __ Q._ o.
1981 o. o. o. o.
1982 o. 0~ _O.t.-o.
J'l83._ -. Ot..., -·()';-o. ----o:·-
'1984 '-. 0 +: o. o. o.
1985 3~ 3. __ 3.t-.. 3.
~-·--2.-:. 2. --2-. J9.86_
. 1987 3. 3 • 3.---4.
1988 3. 3. _:L~ 3. ____ 8 •. -a~· a. ...... -9:-_1_982._
1990 6. .,.
...Jt 5 .. 6 •
1991 3. .., ____ 2 .... --3. ..:..t
__J..9_92._ ______ _4 ·-6. 6. -----9.
1993 6.: 7. 7. 17.
1994 25. 18. : __ 1.5·-. _3.z.._
---. ··-· ·-_1_9..9_5_ __ 38. '")I:" •':.. ..J • 23· ; 45.
1996 48. 30. 28 •. l 55.
1997 49 + ! 30. .27· 61 • ...
_1_9..9_8_ -~~ .. t_ 27. 24. 59.
1999 40~ 21. 18· 55.
2000 33. .14. 11· ·-. 4 7 ·--· ---· -··------
G-11
. ~----~_.:.:.,:.: .•. _. -·:·,.::.·.-::;.. _.-,~.:.::.~:.:--
__ ..:_.._.._: __ ·---~--:~~~--:.;o:,._..,;..!.,;:~..-;~~~~.:......-· -· ·-· _,:.: .. :.,:,~:~t;..; .. ; __ ; ,::._~.:....:.......-· ~-,_..._____,__...._ ___ ,__.:......,_.i,....._c,___~·..'.--·~-~--::.·.:..:;..., _ __.._,:_,,: _ __:_o,•~. C.,-,;....._:.,"' • .....__:.~· ••-·"-··-~··· .-.<-·,·· _.,,.,__.._:,.__;
TABLE G.B.
SCIMP MODEL ABSOLUTE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TOTAL RESIDENT AND ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
f.2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year ~6-BBBL·Case ·Case······ Remote Case 2.4-BBBL·Case
o. 1980 o. o~ o~ O . .L. 1981 o ... ___ 0.9. o. o. ~82_ _ __ o~-o .. 7<>~o.'l o .. 1983 o. o. i>J{"gl:~1 ______ 0 f> ___ 1984 .o.' ___ O_t_ 404. _1_2_6~ _40.4._ 404. 404--:--:-285 .. 1986 31L: 233. 233~ _._46S.t_. 1987 337. _363 ··-363. 337. ·1988 389. 390. -39<>":-993. 1989 941. 941. 941. _665 .• _ 1990 717. _5S7~t-587. 3C:"7 7 331-.. -... , .. 1991 453~ 331. 1076. ---1"9<ii-.-555 .. 777 .. 774. _1239_._ . . 1993 795. 912~. 923. 870. 19?4 . i 879. 755. --758.-
966. ----1995-i 955. 808. 812. _1031._ 1996 ! 974. ___ 831.!.. 838 •. 1044. 1997 987. 845. 851-.-· 1061. -:L99·a-1004. 862. . 869. _1083L . 1999 1026. 885 .. 891. 1111. 2000 _ _j._05_~ L 906. -,i6I-.-----
G-12
r
L
[
r",
L
c
r
r
L
r·
r·
I '• . L ..
[.
L
[
[
f
L
[
L
I t--=
~
L
T-H 3S~J A9 SON~lSI N~Iln3l~ ~03 SNOI1J3rO~d lJ~dWI 3~V1N3JH3d 1300W dHIJ~ H XION3dd~ • q ! -.. l ] J ::1 j J J ] 'l -, j l 1 ,_j J ~] "J ,_ c-l c._j ] c 1 I u J cl cJ
J ~ J ] ] J 'l ~ J d J -) ~ J -] ' l 1 ,] J J J J . . -.. -·-;>. -.~ • . -,_ .... -; ·.
,.-l -J l J J :J J [] ] -, . ._J ] ] '] J ] -l _ __) -l J v-H
J ~ J ] ] J 'l ~ J d J -) ~ J -] ' l 1 ,] J J J J . . -.. -·-;>. -.~ • . -,_ .... -; ·.
I
I'
~~
l_.
r·~
~-
l __ ~
[
[
r'
I -l_:
,-
1 l--
' L---
L_.
[
u
c
~~
c;
,-,
~0
r·-:
l __ :
r·-
I L;
..
Table H. l.
.Table H.2.
Table H.3.
Table H.4.
Table H.S.
Tab 1.e H. 6.
Table H~ 7-.
Table H.8 •
LIST OF APPENDIX H TABLES
Percentage Impacts: Resident Population
Percentage Impacts: Encla~e Population
Percentage Impacts: Total Population
Percentage Impacts: Total Resident Employment
Percentage Impacts: Basic Resident Employment
Percentage Impacts: Services Employment
·Percentage Impacts~ Government Employment
Percentage Impacts: Total Resident and Enclave Employment
H-3
,.-l -J l J J :J J [] ] -, . ._J ] ] '] J ] -l _ __) -l J v-H
r
l_'
[
r--.
I
l __
r~
l -'
~-
l.
[
l'"
[
r~
I
' L.
l.
[
E
[
[
[
[
[
I
I -1.~
~ ·-::_p._,..-:-~-~--:__. •' ,· ·-·: ~:.v ....... · -·. _._,.,__~ -~--=--.. ".;-,:;_:: ,:_:-~~\.·""-~:.;_,-:..,~.::..,;___:;~. -·------"-·-: __ ...,_-~-:..~ .. ..:.:...:.. _. -_,_·_;;..,
.··TABLE H.l.
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
RESIDENT POPULATION
Yecr ~6 BBBL·Ccse
T9·a·o-· ------'-. .9 Q .
+?81 -----.. oo-· .
1982 .00
:c9s·3-.00 '
1984 . 00 . ·.
1985 . 01
19~ .00
~ ..
1987 ·-:.: .... ··. 00
1988 ··:' .... : .QO ... ·.
~:c9-s9-·. .. ..-0 1 ·--1990 .01
1991 . . 01
.1992-. 01
:t993 . o4
1994
.. ·. b 6 .
-q995 ___
08
-~ 1996 -/ ·: 08
:.~1997 ' .. ': .07
1998 . 05
199.9 .04
_2000. ~ ·e3
1..2 BBBL
Road-Connected
Case···
·-·--------
.00
.00
.00 -.00
.00
. 01'
l. 2 BBBL
Remote·Case
.au··-.
.00 -.00 -._--. ·:-oo
:_ . 0 0
,_ ... · .· . 01 --.-Q 0 --··-----~-o-o -
. 00 . -.. 0 0
.00 .00
··-= 01 -~.-.-·-:-() l . -
.00 .00
.00 .00 ---.01 ---.-01
.03 .03 .04 .04 ····-·:OS ----·---~o·s --
-·-·OS ... 04·
.04 ':_'. 04 -·--. 0~· .03
.02 .02
.01 ~01 -----
2.4 BBBL Case
________ ...
.00
.. 0 0
__ ._Q_Q_
.00
. 00
.01 --:-oo
. 01
_._......!l-Q ..
.01
. 0 l ____ .o..o
.02
.06
.08
. 09
. 09
.09
.07
.06
.04 --... . .....
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
H-5
-
--· .. :.., ·· --~...:.~· ... :._:, .. -,;.,::.;~-..::.;:;..-t:~~-..:.....::;:..~~--,.;,_;~L-;.~.;.-·~·-· ......!i.;.:_~:~'-..:.·~·~·;;-.... -::~~~.:::.~~:·~·;_ -~·:-r> · ·· :· •. , . .-.~~. : ....... -· ·~·-.u..:.:.:......:._._ ~::: ... ..;" · ·.·:~::.:._..,..:..;;:_,:.o:_._~·.,;...: --..........:-~.:...~.:-• ..;...._,_:-=:...'"-·_ ... • :.::....... .. ·--... ···-·. · .•. ---<.· ..... :.;, __ 7_,::..., ....... · ~--· .:..:."'-
TABLE H.2.
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
ENCLAVE POPULATION
T. 2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year .6 BBBL Case ····Case·· Remote· Case 2A BBBL Case
·:.· .. ·.-.~-··· .. ---:>f980> o. o. o. o.
2..1281 o. ---<'!-~---· - 0 .._ ____ o.
1982 o. o. o. -o:-···-·-
1983 -6-:--o. o~ o.
..;..1981_ o. o. -·-0 t ____ ---o.
1985 __ <;>_d,_~_ o. 1~r· 0.15 -0.15-
;~1986 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.11
:..t.£az_ 0.13 0.15 ~-Q.L~_=;_ 0.20
1988 __ o ~.!§ ___ --0 ~ 17 ___ 0.17 ---6-:15
:L989 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.48
_l_<['j_Q_ 0.33 0.27 Ot27 0.31
1991 0.13 0.13 -· 0.14 -0 ... .18._
1992 0.20 0.32 0.33 0.49
__l!l9_L 0.30 0.37 ~--o.~ ~s ___ 0.56
-···o"~ 27 ·---1994• ~0.34-0.27 0.33
1995 0.36 0.29 0.29 0.36
J.'l9..6_! 0.35 0.28 __ o. 29 .. __ 0.38
1997 -.0 •. 34_ 0.27 0.28 -<i:36
1998 0.32 Ot26 ·o.26 0.34
-1.933_ 0.30 0.24 -0 .•. 24_ 0.32 ·--..,. .. 2000 0.28 0.22 . o. 22 0.30
NOTE: "Percent impact11 numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get p~rcent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
H=6
[
[
r-·
r.
r-·
[_
L
[
f..,
I
t L.
r·
L
[
E
c
[
[
r
L
f
!
L"
L
I'
L.
i :
' ~
-,
:3
=-'
-"1
--~--_,._.;:....._......-..--=.~~-~-'-' ·:. :·.:.-..-..:....::. __ ...:!.,;:_,_:_;_;.;._::.:..;_:::....._.;..;.;..__,.:_..::~-::.~~-.. __ _,..._:._.:.,...:......:.~~'!" -~.:.;:.:::.::: .. :. ..... ~~...;.:::.: ______ .:_:_..,__:;__~-· ·~_,___ ..... :·=~----:__........___ ... --~~~-.-... ~~"···-: __ _
TABLE H.3~
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TOTAL POPULATION*
Year
1980
-r9·8·1-
1982
-1983
-r9B4-
1985
1986 T9_8_7_
l:'t:-8 8
19B.9
-r99o--
1991
1992
~f993~
.1994
1995 .
-r99o-
:l997
:L998
T999-
2000
.NOTE:
L2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
~6-BBBL·Case ····Case··· Remote· Case 2A BBBL·Case
o.oo ... o.oo o.oo ---·. -·. ···----.. o .•. oo-
___ ::o. oo_ -o.oo -o.oo -o.oo
-o.oo -o.oo -o.oo -o.oo
o.oo _o. oo __ o.oo __ o •. oo __
.:.:......=...OtO_Q_ -o.oo -=6-:o·o--o.oo
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.04 .. 0.03 0.03 _O_t.04_
0.05 -. o-:·o5 ----___ 0.0.4 __ 0 .. 06
0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04
0.13 0.13 0.13 ---0. t 14 ..
0. 08· -·o":·oa --___ o •. o9_ 0.09
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04
A .1'\f 0.09 0.09 _Q_d.4_ VtVO
0.12 -··o :·i2 ·---
.... 0 •. 1L. 0.19
0.13 0.10 0.10 0.14
0 •. 15 .. 0.11 0.11 0 t 16 ... -------..... -
_0 •. 1.4._ 0.11 0.10 0.16
0.1:1 0.10 0.09 0.15
0.12 0.08 o.os __ Qd4 ___
0.10 0.07 0.07 0.12
o.os 0.06 0.06 o.:Lo
"Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than ~11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
H-7
·' __ ._, . .:.,.:__._-;_
fc.o:.:. _ :~.::--~
TABLE H.4.
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TOTAL RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
Year
\·,.
·<:.·· ·., •.
1980
1981
-1.:£82_
1983
1984
-1..985_
1986
1987
...1988_
:l989
"i990
_1_9_q_1 -.
1992
"1993
..1.9.9.:A _-
1995
:L996-
l22Z
1998
1999
20_00_
NOTE:
L2 BBBL
Road-Connected L2 BBBL
~6-BBBL·Case ····Case······ Remote· Case .... 2~4 BBBL·Case
o. -6-.---·-
o.
o.
-()-. ---
0.07
o.65
--o~-06-
0.06
0+10
··--· o.os
0.07
0.10 -o:i3--
0.13
__ 9..!_~:3 --
0.12
0.12
-0_!_11 -0.10
0.10
11 Percent impact"
percentages. For
than .11 percent.
point.
----·---·-··-----o. o. --o-. -·
o. o. o. _o. ___ -0 L ... ··--·-··-··-o. .o. o. ----o. o. o. o.
0.07 _0.07--0.07
0.04 0.04 --o-:-o5--
0.06 0.06 0.07
0.06 -0. 06 o.os
0.09 0.09 --o·:--i·o-
0.06 0.06 0.07
0.06
-··· ········-··
_0. 06 ______ 0.06
0.11 0.10 0.11
0.12 . 0.12 0.12
0.12 ... 0.12 0.13 --0 .·12 0.12 -o":-I3-
0.12 0.12 0.12
0.11 _Ot 11__ 0.12
0.11 0.11 ----0 :·li ----
0.10 0.10 0.11
0.09 . __ 0.09. 0.10 ------~-------
numbers are actually shares rather than
example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
H-8
[
[
r
[
f -
f_ ~
t
[
·-1
' b--
[
L
l
c
L
[
[
[
I -
t -=
\..._;
L
[
[
~
[
~
r-,
[
[
,.,
l
' L_;
'"'
Lo
[
u
c
[
r-,
l
~~-
' l .. ~
l __ ,
I •
'--'
TABLE H.S.
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
BASIC RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT
1~2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year i6·BBBL·Case ····Case······ Remote· Case 2A BBBL Case
-------
1980 o. o. : o. o.
1981 o. o. o. o.
1982-" _o_. ___ o. o. o.
1983 o. o. o. o.
1984 o. o. : o. ___ o •--
rm~,jB
--...... _____
--·-0 •. 13 .. --0. 13 ___ 1 . 0.13 0.13
0 .1() 0.07 ·····. o;o7 .. o.os
0.10 0.09 0.09 0.11
1-98~ ------·-·--0.08 _O_t..l_l __ 0.10 0.10
1989 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12
1990 . 0.12 o.os o.os _0.10
-1991-___ o. :1.3 __ 0.10 0. lO 0.11
i 9.92 0.18 l' .. .::-0.18 0.17 VoJ....J
1993 0.29 . -· 0. 24 __ 0.22 __ 0. 27
l.'sr94-.-,_0 t.::5.0 __ j 0.27 0.26 0.32
1995 O.t30 0.27 0.26 0.32
:t 996 0.27 : 0.24 0.23 -0 t 31
. .,...r9·9~ -· 0.24_. -· --0.20 --·· 0.27
0.21 1998 . 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.23
1999. 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.19
-2<foo---·--. --0.16 _O_t_l::i __ 0.13 0.12
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
H-9
TABLE H.6.
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
SERVICES EMPLOYMENT
1.2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year ~6·BBBL Case ··Case· Remote· Case 2.4 BBBL Case
. 1980 o • ____ 0. o. ---. 0 •.. --.. -·--o-:--
1981 o. o. o.
1982 ---0~--o. o. o.
1983 o. 0 t •. ·-o. _O.t ___
--·--·--
1sfs4-o. o. o. o.
1985 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
;-1986 0.07 __ .o~.95_ 0.05 0 .. 06
~t987-o.oa 0.08 -o·~-oa··-. 0.10
-...... 0.08 1988 0.09 o.oa 0.07
_;1. 9J35' --o. 18 Od8 _0 .• 18_ ---·-0.19 -
1990 0.14 Ov11 0.11 0.13
---o.io-0.07 1991 0.07 o~o8
_19.92__ 0.12 ___ 0_.16_ 0.15. 0.21
1993 0.19 0.20 0.19 -o-:-xi--
1994 -·--()"~21-0.18 0.18 0.22
--1..2.2.5_ 0.23 0.19-_0 •. 19_. 0.24
1996 0.22 0.18 0.18" 0.24
:L997. --o-:-·20-0.17 0.17 0.23
_.1_2.9.8_ 0.19 0.15 .C.15 .. ____ 0_~ 21
1999. 0.16 0.13 0.13 0.18
0. 1~l ---0.12 0.12 0.16 2000"
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
H-10
[
r
r
('
[
[
[
l"
L
r
I
I
L
I'
L
L
c
c
L
[
[
L
r·
L
[
[
[
I
I_ ,
[
[
[
[
[
r-
~ .
!
L.
I
l_,
[
[
c
[
[
·•
r
--
·~
r:
r-
r = L..o
L ..
TABLE H.7.
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
1. 2 BBBL
Road-Connected 1.2 BBBL
Year .6·BBBL Case Case Remote·Case 2.4 BBBL Case
----. ~------
__ _{)_. __ o. o. ------
1980 o.
1981 o. o. o. 0~
_1:£_82_ o. o. __ 0 ··----o. -·-----o. o. --. ·-·
1983 -· 0. ···---o.
1984 o. o. o. o.
_1985_ o.oo o.oo __ 0 t 00. __ o.oo --o.oo o.oo --·
1986 _o.oo_ o.oo
1987 o.oo o.oo o.oo 0.01
_ilJ38_ o.oo o.oo _o._o_o __ o.oo -·-
1989 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
1990 0.01 0~01 0.01 o.oi
_1_~1-o.oo o.oo _o. oo-____ g. 00
1992 0. 01 -0.01 0.01 0.01 ·-
1993 . 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
_l'l.£._4_ 0. 03 . 0.02 -0. 02 __ . -. 0 ..... 05_
I ·-·o. o3 --t 1995 --~0.05_j 0.03 0.06
1996 0.06 i 0.04 0.03 0.07
_19.97 __ . 0. 06 .·. 0. 0·4 0.03 0.07
1998 o.o5 0.03 0.03 0.07
1999 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.()6
.2000 0.03 0.01 0.01 ·--0.05 --·
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
H-11
. ·~-----~~ ,. ____ _,. -·· ·-·--: ·---
TABLE H.8.
SCIMP MODEL PERCENTAGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TOTAL RESIDENT AND ENCLAVE EMPLOYMENT
Year
1980
1981
-::r9-82-
: 1983
1984
-r985-
1986
'1987
··-T9_8_8_
' 1989-
1990.
1991
-roo..-,
.1..; I~ •
1993
. :!.994
1995'
1996
19<"/7-
1998
1999 -26-<ro-
~6-BBBL·Case
o.
o.
--o. ____ _
o.
o.
___ o .11
o.o-9
0.10
0.11
0.27
0.20
0.12
Ool5
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.18
0.17
f. 2 BBBL
Road-Connected
·Case
o.
--0 t o.
o.
--o .• --------.
0.11
0.07
-0.10 ·····
0.11
0.27 _o, 16
0.09
0.21
0.24
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.14
1.2 BBBL
Remote-Case
0.;,
o-~ ..
--o.-~--
0~.
o·.
-6.11-
o. 07 i
0.10 --· o-. fi-
0.27
0.16
0.09
o~21
-o.24
0.19
0.20
0.19
--6-:-18
0.17
0.16
--0.14
2A·BBBL·Case
o. ____ o~
o.
·o.
. . o.
0.11
o.o8
_O_t13 __ _
0.10
0.28
____ (h19
0.10
1'1 '"lO .....,.,;_,
- o .• 32.-~
0.22
0.23
---0. 24
0~22
0.21
0,_19
0.18
NOTE: "Percent impact" numbers are actually shares rather than
percentages. For example, .11 refers to 11 percent rather
than .11 percent. To get percent impacts, ignore the decimal
point.
H-12
[
[
!
[
[
[
[
L.
.~
I
I '=
[
[
c
c
l--
.'
.. J
[
[
[
r·
L
[
~
[
I
I .
~
[
[
[
[
,.
I
f -
L
[
[
1 .. :
c
[
L
r-~
~.
L
I r.
L_,
·-··-···-. ___ : _______ "'----·---. .....: . ..:__ ··• --~'--. ..:.: __ _..,_,_.;_.:.._ _____ --· ...._::_ .. _______ .-. ··-... ·--·--
APPENDIX I: t~AP ~·10DEL ASSUMPTIONS
This appendix discusses the assumptions used in running the
statewide MAP model.
Four types of assumptions are required as the premises upon which a
forecast of economic activity using the MAP statewide model is
based. First, s_everal assumptions about the performance of the
national economy are required. Secondly, an assumption is required
as to the number of tourists who will visit Alaska. Thirdly,
assumptions are required about exogenous state government revenues
and about state government spending policies. Finally, assumptions
are required a,bout emp 1 oyment in a number of different sectors.
These assumptions are discussed below.
National Variables Assumptions
Inasmuch as Alaska is an open economy, developments in the state
hinge at least in part on the performance of the national economy.
In particular, three assumptions about the U.S. economy are
required. First, a forecast of weekly earnings in the United States
is needed to estimate Alaskan wage rates. Second, insofar as most
goods consumed in Alaska are imported from the Lower 48, the U.S.
price level is an important determinant of Alaskan prices, so that
estimates of such prices require some forecast of the U.S. consumer
I-1
price index. Finally, insofar as the income differential between
Alaska and the Lower 48 is a major determinant of migration between
Alaska and the Lower 48, a forecast is required. of real per capita
disposable income in the United States.
In the base case, it is estimated that the growth in U.S. consumer
prices s 1 ows to a 1 ong run rate of 7. 5 percent by 1985, that the
growth in average weekly earnings rises to a long run rate of
8.0 percent by 19~5, and that real per capita personal income growth
rises slightly to 2 percent annually by the mid-80s.
Tourism-Assumptions
The MAP model nets out those portions of transportation, trade, and
service sector employment generated by tourist activity in the
state. Such estimates are ge_nerated in forecasts as a function of
an exogenous forecast estimate of total tourists visiting Alaska
during the forecast period.
In 1979, the Alaska Division of Tourism estimated that 505,400
persons visited the state. The model projections assume that the
number of tourists grows at a constant annual rate of 4.4 percent,
reaching over 1.1 million persons by the year 2000.
State Government Revenues and Expenditures
Exogenous revenue assumptions were based upon the first quarter 1982
petroleum production revenue forecast prepared by the Alaska
I-2
[
[
[
[
[
[
[~
[
r I ~
!
L
[
L
f
c
[-~
~
j
L
[
[
r-
b
[.
I'
~~
[
l:
[
[
l~
['
r~
~ I -
L
l,
[
c
c
[
[
r
~----"
L
[ -
[_,
l~-
:", · . .i-"-::._·_....::..:.. -•••-•••--•~:--~ ••"-··-·•-0:..:.~.-· . .--N-~-.::.
Department of Revenue. These exogenous revenue assumptions are
summarized in Table I-1. In addition, revenues associated with
specific projects were ass~med.
Given the revenue assumptions, ·state government expenditures could
not continue to grow at a rate comparable to those of recent
experience without provoking a state government fiscal crisis by the
late '90s. On the other hand, major cuts in state spending, in
particular operating expenditures, are not especially plausible to
expect in the face of accumulating petroleum revenues.
Consequently, in both the base case and impact cases, a two-phase
expenditure policy was assumed over the forecast period. As long as
the real per capita accumulated balances are growing, nominal
expenditures: g_row at eight percent annually, approximately the
growth rate required to maintain current per capita service levels.
Once such balances begin to decline, however, capital expenditures
are cut at a rate of ten percent annually, and the persona 1 income
tax is reintroduced with its historical structure. The combination
of tax increases and capital budget cuts limits the decline in state
government employment to a very small rate.
Exogenous Employment Assumptions
The MAP model treats a number of categories of employment as
exogenous. Employment in these industries is assumed, and
constitutes one of the major driving assumptions for the model. The
categories are li~ted ·;n Table I-2.
I-3
----------~--·_, ___ -___ ------~-:::..:..:.:... __ ---·~--_:_:·~-----:...:.~-.:·_:....:...:_·_.-__ ._._. ----~ ·-· ·. __ , __ , ~~-~.,·:. i·: •. .-: .--· :..:._,__ .... ~.i;,_ ___ . -· _ .. ----~·:_. -.--____ -__ .::_;_.':_.-:..;:;;,·:...:~:.:~~~~ .. ;_~----.:-':_;._~_ ~..:;~ ___ ..i::.._.=_:_:~-~-_____ .-!_ . .::__,;:;: •• .:..~ •• ··-_ __;
1-?:=:o
19:=:1
~ ·::··~:2
1'?:=;-~;
<4 .-•• -....
J. =-·:·"+
1 ·~:35
t·3:=:E:
1·;.~37
1'31::::3
1 ';t!3'3
1•?.~90
1'3'31
1':' ?.!2
..s .-.--
1'~:;:.
199E.
1 '3197
t·~·?:?.
1'399
2000
2001
2002
200:3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2 0 0:3
2009
2010
TABLE I-1
'·lAP MOIIE.L ~.-.tJ13ENOU::: REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS ....................................... ................ ....................
MILLIONS OF CURRENT $ ............... -................. ..
::;TATE ::;TATE :STATE STATE
PROPERTY BONUS ROYAL T't PRODUCTION
TA::< PA'iMENT INCOI'1E TA>~
F.:E'·.·'ENUE REVENUE REVL · 'JE
STATE
C:ORPORP :-:.
PETRDLE·~,,..
TA>~
REVENUE -------------------------------------·-------------1 7'5. 0 (II) 0.000 :381.:300 46'?. 900 1:35. 120
14:3. 000 o.ooo 1:389. (11)(1 : 156. 000 :360.000
155.000 0.000 1666.000 --:. 7':3 .. 0 0 0 8C.O .. OOO
157.001) OeOOO 20:37. (II) 0 .:.102.000 4'~5. 000
157.000 0.000 246:3. qoo 2480.000 593.160
157.000 0.000 2:3':;.4. 00 0 2:::'=-'6. 000 694.:300
157.000 0.000 3473.000 34'~7. 000 :=::36. 400
157.000 0.000 :3'362 0 0 0 0 :397:3" 000 '352.:300
157.000 0.000 4404.000 3675.000 '?6'~. 4:3 0
157'.000 0.000 492:3.000 4149.000 1089.240
157'.000 0.000 4:330. 000 4002. 000 105'3.840
157.000 0.000 4E.41. 00 0 3752.000 1007'.160
157.000 0.000 46:.::1. 000 :3656.000 ·~94. 440
157.000 0.000 4:314. 00 0 3775.000 10:30. 6:3(1
57.000 o. 000 47'18.000 :3E.61. 000 1 f'! frc; .:1 !::, .-• ·..r •J·-· e --, • .,., ._.
~:7'.000 0.000 4481.000 :3417.000 '347 8 76(
157.000 0.000 43:3 o. 00 0 3256.000 916.:32(
157.000 0.000 465·~. 000 3420.000 ·:;.6'3 0 4::: f
157.000 0.000 4659o000 ::::42o.oc..:: '36'3G 4:3(
157'.000 0 .. 000 4659-. 00 0 ::::420.00:) '=-'69. 4:3(
157 • I) (II) 0.000 4E·5'3. 000 :3420.000 '36'3. 48(
157.000 0.000 4659.000 ::::420.000 ·~E8. 4:31
157.00(1 0.000 465·~. 000 :3420.000 9€.9. 48r
157.000 0.000 465·~. 000 3420.000 96'3o 4:3r
157.000 1).,1)1)0 465'3 0 I) 0 I) :3420~000 96'3e 4S•
157.000 0.000 465"3.000 -:::420.000 '3€.'3. 4:3;
157.000 0. 000 465'3i.OOO 3420.000 969. 4:=:
157.000 0.000 4E.s·;;.. ooo 3420.000 ·3.:.·3 o 4:=: r·
157.001) 0.000 4E.5·~. 000 J420.000 9E.9. 48(
157. 0 0 I) o. 000 4E.s ·3. o o o :3420.000 '3E:3 D 4~3 (·
157.000 0.000 465'3. 000 3420.000 96'~ .. 480
SOI_IP.('l=: MC.C'\ ....... --~b (:A:~E" flOP. ·::81
I-4
~
[~,
!'
!
~~
[
r·
[~
[
r~
I
I
L__;
[
[
[
I
' -'
[
l~
[
[
L
L
L
~
I,
[
[
[
r·
[
[
r
I ~ ' ' L
[
[
[
[
[
[
r ,
.___.
L
I ~
I t-=-L.
[
. TABLE I-2
MAP MODEL EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES
Agricultural Employment
Mining Employment
High Wage Exogenous Construction Employment*
Low Wage Exogenous Construction Employment
High Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment
Low Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment
Exogenous Transportation Employment
Fish Harvesting Emplo}ment
Active Duty Military Employment
Civilian Federal Employment
*Primarily used for major construction projects such as the
trans-Alaska pipeline.
I-5
• -'-'--·---~ ,__,__:___:_'-..; -----. ....:.:~L-"-;:_. • ·-·--·---~__:..-_ "'.-~--~ -:.-~---·---__ . -·--..:;__'----. ~----··---· ._ .. ....;.._;,. ·.·--.: ·:~--· .. ·: .: : .•• ~;__"''--~::~:::z.........:.~~:........: •• .:;;:.:::..::.:....-r::.,:__ .• :,;.. '--~--,_,..:: -------~-..:.:-~---·--""~---
Employment in s<ome cat:e,gories, such as Civilian Federal Employment,
i s assumed direct 1 y. Fo.r· othe:r categories, such as mining
employment, assumptions are based on employment assumptions for a
numbe.r of different industries and special projects, all of which
contribute employment to the category. Below, we briefly review the
employment assumptions for different projects and industries upon
which the total exogenous employment assumptions are based.
Tables I-3 to I-24, at the end of this appendix, show these
assumptions in detail.
Trans-Alaska Pipeline (Table I-3)
Additional construction employment of 90 is assumed in connection
with construction of new pump stations. Constant operating
employment of 1500 is assumed.
Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System (Table I-4)
Construction employment on the Northwest Alaska Pipeline is assumed
to peak at l 0, 589 in 1988, fa1Ting to a 1ong-term tot a 1
persons in transportation and petroleum sector employment.
Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk Petroleum Production (Table I-5)
-.I: ~, l'l
U I .J I :::7
In addition to the existing Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk operating work
force, additional construction employment is generated in connection
with secondary recovery projects and expansion of the Kuparuk field.
Long~run operating employment is 2502.
l-6
[
r
r
L.
[
[
[
[
[
r~
I
I
L
I
[
[j
[
[
r
L
[
L
(.
L
[
[
L
r_
[
r
[
fi
[,
r
I-" I
I-...._ __ ~
.....
L
C -
-
c
n \,
U
[
L
l~ :,
~
r.
I
C
IL_
i
L...
Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production (Table I-6)
Declining oil productioQ employment is offset by expanding gas
production, resulting in a constant work force of 778.
National Petroleum Reserve in·Alaska (Table I-7)
Five commercial fields are assumed to be discovered and developed,
representing 1.85 billion barrels of oil and 2.73 trillion cubic
feet of gas. Construction employment peaks at 550 in 1987, while
long-run transportation and mining employment total 336.
OCS Development (Tables I-8 -I-13)
Prior to the scheduled date of OCS Sale 83, eight other OCS sales
will have occurred~ as follows:
Sale location Date
46 Gulf of Alaska 1976
CI Lower Cook Inlet 1977
BF Beaufort Sea 1979
55 Gulf of Alaska 1980
kfl Lower Cook Inlet 1981 '"' 71 Beaufort Sea 1982
57 Bering-Norton 1983
70 St. George 1983
The first Gulf of Alaska sale (Sale 46) resulted in the drilling of
ten dry ho 1 es, and exp 1 oration has ended in these tracts.
Disappointing results of exploration on tracts leased in Lower Cook
Inlet (Sale CI) in 1977 also resulted, at least temporarily, in a
halt to exploration there.
J-7
In the base case, no future employment is assumed to result from
Sale 46. In addition, it is· assumed that no recoverable resources
are discovered on tracts leased in Sales CI, 55, 57, 60 and 70; that
is, such sales. are assumed to generate only exploration employment.
The level of recoverable resources in the remaining two sales is
assumed to be the USGS estimated mean for the areas~ as shown below:
Sale
BF
71
Location
Beaufort Sea
Beaufort Sea
Recoverable Oil
.75 BBO
2.38 BBO
Recoverable Gas
1.625 TCFG
1.78 TCFG
SOURCES: U.S. Department of the Interior, Fin-al Environmental Impact
Statement, Proposed· Feder a 1-State Oil-·and Gas Lease Sa 1 e,
Beaufort· Sea, page 6; U.S. Department of the Interior,
Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Proposed-Oil and Gas
Lease Sale 71, ·Diapir Field (December 1981), page xii.
Exploration in 1982 on Sale CI is assumed to provide 38 jobs in
mining and 9 jobs in transportation. No subsequent employment is
provided by Sale CI. The levels of employment assumed for the
remaining six OCS sales are shown in Tables I-8 -I-13~
Beluga Coal
A coal export program from the Beluga fields is implemented
beginning in 1985. Construction employment peaks at 400 in 1987.
Long-run operations employment is 524.
Red Dog Mine (Table I-15)
Construct1on employment at the Red Dog Mine near Kotzebue reaches a
maximum of 200 irr 1986. Long-run mining employment is 448.
. I-8
[
r
r I i
r
L
l "
r
l \._
r~
VJ
L_
r·
I
!
I
[
[
C
n 1-J
l
L
(
L
r:
L
,:<,
L
r-. -L
L
[
l
f'
fJ
r~
l'
\/
L\
c
r··
l\~
I\
l ' ,, '
(
i
I
L-
[
wi"
[
0 '•./
[
r L
D
L
(
t--=-L
[
u~s~ ·Borax Mine (Table I-16).
Construction employment at the U.S. Borax Mine reaches a maximum of
500 in 1985. Long-run operating employment is 790.
Other Mining (Table I-17)
Other mining employment is assumed to grow at a constant rate of one
percent per year, from 3171 in 1982 in 3869 in 2000.
Agriculture (Table I-18)
Agriculture gro~s at a moderate rate~ with total employment
expanding from 183 in 1980 to 308 in 2000.
lumber·and Pulp Processing (Table I-19)
Employment in lumber and pulp processing increases from 2204 in 1980
to a maximum of 4103 in 2000.
Commercial Fishing -Non-bottomfish (Table I-20)
t:';.,.h;,.,., omnli"'\Jmon+ v-om::.in<: rnnc::t.::.nt .::.t 71?~-' 1 ~II 111:;1 Yllfl"' I \JJIII'-11 V I"""-'"-11r-__ ,,._, __ ,,---• • ---Fish harvesting
employment remains constant at 6363.
Commercial Fishing -Bottomfish (Table I-21)
Bottomfish harvesting employment expands from 36 in 1982 to over
1137 in 2000, while resident bottomfish processing employment
expands from 18 to 3873. This case assumes full takeover of the
foreign bottomfish catch by U.S. fishermen and the establishment of
l-.9
---· ~-·,_, __ : -~.:: ••• ;;· < ,·_.. ' -· ··"· .. -· ... : .. : ::-.:-::--.. ~::::.:_·~ ··-. ~ --~----:-.-··-· .. --·----~·-"'---·--' . -~-------·--.
a sizable onshore processing industry. Since the future evolution
of the bottomfish industry is highly uncertain, these assumptions
are also highly tenuous.
Hydroelectric Projects (Table·I-22)
Constru·ct ion emp 1 oyment on hydroe 1 ectri c projects presently underway
at Tyee and Terror Lakes peaks at 520 in 1983.
Federal Civilian and Military-Employment (Tables I-23, I-24)
Federal military employment remains constant at 23,323. Federal
civilian employment grows at .5 percent per year, from 18,005 in
1980 to 19,893 in 2000.
I-10
r
r
r'
\ I
~·
1·~_,
___ )
r--
l I
',j
t:
(" l~·
,-·,
I J
1-F.
!/
PI (. __ ,
[,
L.J
I
l.:'
[
[
\/
L
c;
({'
L
L
f ' . L
L
_ ___.,..-: .. · ...
[
c '._.,---
[
f''\
/
[
[~
L_,
['
f L 1 ·;..::: 0
1981
r\
f ' l ' .... _ _:;
1'3:32
198:3
1984
1'385 r I 1'3:36
I '---" t·3:37
1 ·;.s:=:
D _,
1·;..::::·;.
1 '3'3 0
1'3'31
[
1 -::.•:r:: -· ... L-.
199:3
1994-
1'3•35
D ""'
1996
1'?'?7
1998
l 199'3
2000
2001
,-
\'
l,"
2002
2003
2004
2tJOS
[ ~
~~
2006
2007
::oo8
• L 2009
2010
[\ . -L,
~~
L--'
·-··-·~-----: ___ .
TABLE I-3
TRANS-ALAS~A PIPELINE -.........................
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS .........................
THOUSANbS OF EMPLOYEES ........................ ............... ................
HIGH I_.JAt3E E:•=:OG
E>=:Ot:; CON-TRAN:~-
:S:T~UCT I Ol"i POF.:TAT I ON
EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT
------~-------------
0.090 1. 500
o. 090 1.500
0. 0'3 (I 1. 500
0.000 L500
o. 1)(11) 1. 500
0.000 1. 500
0. 000 1. 500
0.000 1. 500
o. 000 1. 500
o. 000 1. 500
o. (II);_. 1. 500
(;. _' ;) 0 1. 500
(! __ .--') 1.500.
(1. -~ ;_! 0 1. 500
::. 000 1. 500
0.000 1. 500
0.000 1. 500
0.000 1. 500
0.000 1. 500
o. 000 1.500
o. 000 1. 500
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0. 000 0.000
0.000 0. 0 00
0.000 0.000
0.000 o.ooo
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
o. 000 o. 0 00
0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE TAP.>
1-11
J :1 lj ~1 1 '.J ~1-lo..;~;, f-' ( ',,..} ) II JJ J ~ I I ,_J ZL-I 19W"9~~ 3S8J l3GOW d8W :3J~nOS E.n ·o (1(1(1 ·o 002"0 E.l! ·o 000 ·o 002 ·o E.n ·o 000 00 002"0 6tl ·o 000 ·o 002"0 6!! ·o 000 ·o 002"0 611"0 (II) (I ·o 002°0 61! ·o 000 "(I 002"0 E.n ·o 000 ·o 002"0 E.n ·o 000 ·o 002"0 611 ·o 000 ·o 002 ·o E.ll ·o 000 ·o 002"0 6ll"O 000 ·o 002"0 611 ·o 000 ·o 002"0 6ll ·o 000 ·o 002"0 6! t ·o 000 ·o 002 ·o o;:.n ·o 000 ·o 002"0 6ll ·o 000 ·o 002"0 611 ·o 000 ·o 002"0 .:.n ·o 000 ·o 002 ·o 6ll ·o 000 ·o oo::r ·o 61! ·o 89t ·o oo2 ·o E.n ·o 'PLO "•:;. 002"0 000 ·o £.:::~ ·o 1 0'31 ·o 000 ·o ::::o 1 . L 000 ·o 000 ·o ~f:t "2 000 ·o 000 ·o .£:9~"0 000 ·o 000 ·o .L;: 2 so 000 ·o 000 ·o .L12"0 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 Go ---------------·---------------J. • .J3WAOldW3 J.·~3W-.OldJ..B ._,0Il8l~Od ._,Dil::tfl<:llS: l·~3l~l.Dld~·J3 -s•.l8:::u -·~OJ 90::-::3 £1.~I~HJ £10::<:3 3£t8(fl H£1IH ................. ................. ................................. S33AOldW3 ~0 Scr._,8SnOHl ..................................... S~DIJ.dWnSS8 l~3WADldW3 ++++++++~+++++~++++ "'?!~:-.-:-J~.! --w~--l::3f'rHlom-J 1]-1 :3:'1HYl -,~,to 2 E.OI) 2 8002 .L002 9002 .S002 t.-002 ;:::.002 2002 1002 0002 f.f.E.t E:E.E. t .L66l 9661 f:E-61 t:-6€. l 8E·E·1 2661 1661 0661 686! E::;:E. t LE:E.l. 9f:E. t f;86l t.-f:E. l C:E:E. l a:=:E.J tf:E.t o::::.:. 1
L
D
(\
r~
!
p
I
L
c·
r
n I
(.
I
' L~
c~
c
c :r:
[-.:, _,
~
n l. i
['
L
r \
t
c
,,-:.
1'~:30
1'~:31
1 ·=..:=:2
19:3:3
1·3~34
1'~:35
1'3:36
1'31:37
t·3:3:3
198'~
1'?90
19'~1
1 qq·::o ...... a.;;;.
1'3'3:3
19'~4
1·~·~5
1'~96
1'397
1'~'3:3
199':1-
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005'
2006
2007
200:3
2009
;=-ot o
TABLE I-5
Pi:WDHOE E:A'r'
........................................
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
...........................................
THOUSAND'S OF EMPLOYEES
..................................... ......................... ........................
Lm.l l.r.IAGE
I'll N II'H:i E>mEi CON-
Et-1PLO'l·'t•1ENT STFWCTION
EMPLO'r'MENT --------------------
2., :3€.'3 0.000
2.'307 0. o::::5
::::. 01:3 0.4'31
:3. 12'3 !. 065
2.202 0.4:34
2. 502 0. 05 (1
2a502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2a502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2. 502 0. 000
2. 502. 0.000
2.502 0.000
2a502 0.000
2e502 0.000
2. 502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2. 5"02 0.000
2.502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2a502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2. 502 0.000
2.502 o. :· ·; 0
2.502 0. ;:i .:· !)
2.502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2.502 0.000
2. 502 0.000
2. 502 0.000
-
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE F'RB.081
I-13
] f; I - 1 I , J 'j IJ J J :to"3dn 3S8J l3aow d8W :3J~nos E:.LL"O Ot02 E:LL ·o 8-LL·o 8LL"O 8LL·o e:.LL • o 8LLQO :::LL CIO C:LL ao E:.LL ·o 8LLo0 8Ll. 0 E:L.L Do 8LLa0 E:LL ·o E:LL ·o 8.tL·o r::~L .. o 8LL"'O 6002 8002 L002 9002 S002 i::-002 8002 2002 !002 0002 E.E.E.t E:E.E.! LE.E.! 96E.! SE.6! E:f.E, l 266! tE.E.t E:LL "0 OE.E.! ........... ............ 8L..L"O :=:.tL II 0 8.LL"O E:LL 80 E:LL ao ==!ll D (I E:LL ao 8.LL"O H.l31-V-.DldH3 ~H-~ I•·J I ~·J ..... ~ ................. . S33AOldW3 ~0 SaW8SnDHl ..................................... SWOildWnSS8 lW3WADldW3 ..................................... S89 aW8 liD· l3lWI ~DBJ ~3ddn 9-I TIS:Vl 6~:::E. t 88E.J L:::E. t 9E:E:! s:::ts 1 l8E.t 086!
c
f'' \ (
r:,
r·
e
C'
['
r ~j;----'
r -. I ,
I
I t-
(1
\---'"
c\
L
[~.
)
r
·:
~
--'-"
[!
r .
~
L
r·,.
L;
L
1'3:30
1'3'!31
1'3!32
1;3:33
1'3'!34
1'3:35
1'3:3E.
19:37
1'?:=::3
198'3
1990
19'31 1
1 ·:.·=-~· -· -· L.
1'3'33
19'34
1'3'35
1':?';r6
1'3'37
1'3'38
1'~'3'3
2000
2001
2002
200:3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
TABLE I-7
NPF.:A ........
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS ..............................
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES
.................................... ............ ............
LOW WAGE EXOG
MINING EXOG CON-TRANS-
:;'
~MPLOYMENT STRUCTION PORTATION
EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT ------------------------------o. 000
0. 000
0 •. 000
0.000
o. 000
o. 044-
0. 0:3:3
0.115
0~~222
o. 177
0.1:37
0.177
o. 204
0.267
0.222
O.E:3t::
Oe222
0.249
0.312
0. 2€.7
0.277
0.267
0.267
0 .. 267
0.267
0.267
0.267
0. 2E.7
0.267
0.000 0.000
0.000
0.000
o.o3e
o.o3a
0.132
0.494
0.550
0. :3:3:3
0.157
Ou 271
0. 546
Oo 5:37
0. 3:=::3
0.157
Oa 271
0.546
Oe 5:37
Oo:3!33
2 oo·;... -0.267
0.157
0.271
0.546
0.546
0.546
0.546
0.546
0.546
0.546
0 •. 546
0.546
o. 546
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.054
0. OE.9
0.069
0. OE.9
0. OE.9
0. 069
0. 06':f
O.OE.9
0.069
0. 069
0.069
0. 069
0. 06'3
0. 069
0.069
0. 06'3
o. 06'3-
0.069
0. 06'3
o. 069
o. 069
0. 069 20!0 0.267
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE NPR.MOD
I-15 "
TABLE I-8
S FEIIEF.:AL.-···:s:TATE LEA:::;:E SALE <BEAUFORT SEA) ............................................................ ~ .. ~ ................. , ..
19:30
19:31
1982
t·~:3:3
1·;:::.:34
1985
1986
1·;::.e7
1'3:=::3
1'~:3'3
1'390
1991
1 qq·::o ........ ·L-.
199:3
1'394
1995
1';:::.96
1qq...,. -· -· (
1'3\98
1'3'3'3
2000
2001
2002
200:3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2 (I 1):3
2 00'3 ..
2010
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
.............................................
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES
............. ~~r·• ~ ....... "' ........ ..... ....................... ......................
HIGH WAGE
MINING EX06 CON-
EMPLOYMENT STRUCTION
EMPLOYMENT
o. 000
0. 066
0. 1'317
0~~ 1'~7
0.2:30
0. OE.6
o. 112
0.,276
o. 47'3
0.61E.
0. 5'315
0.524
0. 5 1):3
0=4:32
0.4:35
o. 4:.:::3
0.440
0.417
I) e :3•~:3
o. ::::·:n
0.:394
0.:318
Oo 2:37
o. 25:3
0.224
o. 201
o. 178
0.157
0. 1:3:::
0.000
o. 000
0.000
0.062
0.188
0.135-
o. 211
o. 150
o. 305
I) 0 :3:3:3
0.466
0. 466
0.155
0.155
0.077
0~155
0.155
0.077
0.022
0.000
0.000
0.000 o. (f(l 0
0.000
0.000
o.ooo
0.000
o.ooo
0.000
o. 00 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
·:""-n' .,....-.-. .... -. .. :. ·-t =~:.:---.....
I-16
~
{
{'r
l
r:·· il
, . .?'
C',
r·
1
i~·· f 'i
f(
l ~'
(__,
"~. ..
'I
!
I I \ ; c ': I
~-·t \
e
[
L
[,
t.
L
1f,
. I .
L
L
r'
r
1;1
[
n
r\
L.
f
,--
L
r--,
I ,
1 ' -,,
' ' t.
r·
J
} ·.
f
L
''t--' ,. ...
c
'-'
; '\
L_
r t~
i ,_-
L
r
f......:.
19E: 0
1981
1982
1 '?83
1'?84
19:35
1'?!3€.
1'?:37
1988
1'~·=-·~ •. ,_, -·
1990
19'?1
1·~·.:.·::. ..... "-
1993
1994
1'?95
l'~w·· -· •. '='
1·~·~-::' -· ... '
1998
1·::.·::.·:. .........
2000
2001
2 002
20 1):3
2004
c·oos
2006
2007
200:3
2009
2010
TABLE I-9
OCS: S:ALE 55 (t;ULF OF RLA:S:nt) ........ ~ ........ ~ .... ++••·~~~
EMPLbYME~T ASSUMPTIONS
................. il"+ ......... ..........
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES ............................. " ..... ' ....
l'iHHtit3
Er1PLOYMENT
...................... .........................
E:,=:06
TRRN:S-
PORTfiTION
Et·1PLOYI"lE·NT --------------------
0. 000 0.000
0. 030 0. (11:3
o. o:;:o 0. 02:3
0. 1):3 0 0.028
0. o::::o 0. 020
o. 0 00 0. 0 Ci7
0. 000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0. 0 0 0 0.000
0. 000 0.000
0. 000 0.000
o. 000 0.000
0. 000 o. 1}(10
0. 000 0.000
0. 000 .... . ...... , .-. .... ., • .. • • .. • ·-·
0. 000 0.000
0. 000 0.000
0. 000 0. 000
o. 000 0.000
0. 0 00 0. 0 0 0
o. 001) 0. 000 o. 001) 0.000
0. 000 0.000
0. 000 0. 00 0
0. 000 0. 000
0. (11)(1 OQ 000
0.000 0.001}
!). 000 (1.000
0. 000 0.000
0. 000 0. 000
0. 000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE DCS.55X
I-17
i
I
!
I
\
i
I
L
1'380
1'~:31
1'3:32
1 ·=..·=-·-=-. -··-··-·
1'384
1985
1'~1~6
19:37
1'~·: .. ;:. -· •-r•-•
1'~:3'3
1 '?'3 0
19'31
1 ·~·:a·:;~
-· •• !;;.
1 ·~-=r:• ..... •.,;}
19'::S4
1995
1'396
1'3':.17
1'3'3:3
1'3·~·3
2000
2001
::oo2
200:3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
200'3-
2010
TABLE I-10
OCS SALE 57 <BE~ING/NORTON) ...........................
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS ........................ "
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES ......................
t'liNING
. Et·1PL0',-'1'1E~iT
............... ...........
LOI ... I I.,JAGE
E:=<O•.; COt'i-
STRUCTIDN
E:>=:OJ3
TRANS-
PDRTATIOJ'·i
EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT ------------------------------
0. 000 0.000 0.000
0. 000 0.000 0. 00 0
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.026 0.000 0.015
0.056 0.005' 0.031
o. o::::o 0.005 0.016
o. 000 0.000 0.000
0. 000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0. OJJ,O 0.000 0.000
0. OJ)O 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
0. 000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 o.ooo
0.000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
O.OQO 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 o. 000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 o. 0 00 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0. 00 0
·s:OJ.I!;•!:--~: t·1~P t·10T•~l_ CA:::::E OCS:. 57:x;
I-18
r
(J" ' ; l \
r
\
(
L
f,
1(
r
L
r.-
'1
!
I \.
(
L
L
L
L\
L
L
It '
'J -
L
c
[·
i ,___,
L
L
[
c:
--
[
r
[)
[~
L r,
,_..-•
(-'
I
' ~-;
ri , '
"-~ .
c
•-~.
c
c
[
L)
f~
t-..
L'
r .
I t:_;
L
_,,,. __ .. .:~ -.. :-·~· --~--.· .... .: .. : .. ·'-·----~ -~-. .-_:... ,.._ ___ .:. .. ----------··
1':;t81)
1'3:::1
1'3:32
1'3:::::::
19:34
1985
1 '3:36·
1987
t·;..:::a
1 '3:39
1990
19'31
1 Q·~-=· .. -· ~
f •.:lC.a·J ,£. .~-.,.-._,.
1994
1'395
1''3'36
1 c.•::.'? • J .... I
1998
19'3'3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-. --'-----... ------------·-"·-----·
TABLE I-ll
OCS SALE 60 (LOWER COOK INLET) ............................................
Et·1PLO'l·ME.tH ASSUMPT I DNS ..........................................
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES
.................................... ................ ............
LOI.•.I I.•.IAGE E:>::OG
!'1ItHI'H5 E:=-::01:5 COI'i-TRANS-
EI'1PLO'r'1'1ENT STRUCTION PORTATION
EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT ------------------------------
0.000 0.000 0.000
0 .. 000 0.000 0.000
1).1):38 o. 02:::: 0.009
0. 08:3 0.000 0.026
o. o·~o o. 0 00 0.0:33
0.075 o.ooo 0.01.7
0. 0:3:3 0.000 o. 00'3
0.000 o. 0 00 0.000
0. 000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 o. o o·o 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
11 li .-• .-.
·-· .. 'J .... •J 0.000 0.000
0. 000 0.000 0.000 o.ooo o.ooo 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
Oo 1)1)1) 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 o. 000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
0.1)1)1) 0.000 0 ... 000
o. 000 0.000 0.000
. ~
2005" o.ooo 0.000 0. (11).(1 ,,,
2006 o. 0.00 0.000 0.001)
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 o. 000 0.000 0.000
200'3 o. 000 0. 000 0.000
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE DCS~60X
. I-19
1-?::::o
1'?81
1 -:;.::::2
1 ·::.·:··:· -· ~-··-·
1'?:34
19::::5
'1'?:36
19:~:7
1 "?::::::::
1 -:;::::"?
1990
1991
1 ·::.·:.·=· .... "-
1 ·:1·::.-:. ..... ·.J
1 '?'?4
1 ·:. ·::; .:::--· -· ·-·
1 '?'?6
1 ·:;·::;7
... -· I , ·::;·::.·::. ... -· ... ·-·
1 '?'?'?
2000
2001
2002
200::::
2004
2005
200f.
2007
200::::
2009
2010
TABLE I-12
ocs: S~ALE 7 0 (S:T. GEORGE~ ....................... ' ' .................... .....
~MPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
........................ ' ' • ~ •• ' •• ~ *
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES. .....................................
MINING
-EMPLOYMENT
0. 0 00
o. (100
0. 0 00
0. 050
0. 064
0.072
0.065
0. 044
0. 0 0 0
o. 000
0. 000
Ct. 000
0. 0 0 0
0. (1(1(1
o. 00 0
0. 0 0 0
0. 000
o. 000
o. 0 00
0. 0 00
o. 0 00
0. 0 00
0. 0 00
0·. 000
0. 000
0. 000
0. 0 00
0. 000
0. 0 00
o. 0 00
0. 000
..................... .............. .........._
EXOG
TRANS-
PORTATION
EMPLOYMENT
0 .. 0 00
0.000
0. 000
0. 02:3
0.0:37
0.046
o. o::r?
0.00:.3
o. 000
o. 0 00
0.000
o. 000
0. 000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0. 0 00
0.000
0. 000
0.000
0.000
0. 1](1(1
0.000
0.000
0.000
o. 0 00
0.000
0.000
0. 0 0 0
0. 00 0
0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE OCS.?OL
I-20
c
r.·· L.
c c~
f
r ~ '
r~
r
r ~
(
I I ·,
i'l I .
\
r> \~-
L
[
L·
F . '
r ~.
r
t~
(
I L
,,
L
L2-I WtL"SJD 3S8J l3crow d~w :3Jdnos s·~:~ ·o 000 ·o 96E. ·o :s·~!:: ·o 1)1)1) ·o 9~.tE. ·o ::: ·;.. ::: .. (I 000 ·o SE.E. ·o e·~s ·o 000 ·o 9,::,,::, "I) t:·;.8QO 000 ·o c. .•.• "' t:• P:'• ·o :~:·:;.:~ ·o ooo·o ·;t£.€. ·o ::: ·;..::: • 0 000 ·o ·;.66 ·o ::: ·~::~ . 0 000 ·o 9E.E. ·o s·;::: · o 000 ·o 9f.E. ·o 8·=.c::. ·o 000 ·o 96€. ·o ::::9:;:: ·o 000 ·o ·;..=. .:. ·o :;:·;..:::. 0 000 ·o b.:=:E. 0 0 ::: 9::~ ·o 000 ·o OLE. ·o 89f:. (I 000 ·o OL6"0 :::·;..::::. 0 000 ·o 8.!1 • 1 f:·~f. 0 000 ·o f:O t:-. t ::::·;a:::: G 0 000 ·o f6:::: • 1 .! t.-2. 0 000 ·o :::E.::: . t I) 60 ·o ~so ·o :::~~::: 0 t 000 ·o LLO ·o ~0 2. 't 000 ·o ·9.!(1 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o !..tO ·o 000 ·o 2~~~ ·o 8!0 ·o 000 ·o 8£0 ·o 2..10 ·o 000 ·o 2£0 ·o L.OO ·o l) 00 ·o 2,:~(1 ·o 000 ·o LSO ·o 000 .·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o 000 ·o ------------------------------.HBLV.DldW3 ~-l0Il8lf.:!Dd -SJ..J-I::l:::ll £t0i<"3 l~~ 3W.-l.O ldl·l 3 ~..~a I.l::tn:::u:; -~..!OJ =10:=<:3 3~18(~ firOl ..................... .. . . ........... JJ.J3\..fr' .• OldW3 ~t;.J! ~J I L.J •• I ••• + .. -+-+++~~·~++-++ S33~0ldW3 ~0 S:cr~~SnOHl ................ ~ ................................... ... . S:I-JO I ldWn:S.S:I:i .l~-l3l.J,.J.._O ldl-i3 .................................................... <83S H:iD.:ln83:D 't L ·3~1::1:5: s:Jo n-I :!I:'HIYJ. "' -J 0102 £1)02 8002 L002 9002 f;002-~002 8002 2002 roo.? 0002 f,f.E. t E:E.E. t LE.E. t 9E.Ji. t S66t t-6E. 1 .~, ::::E . .:. t -, .••• T C-1!:•1::• Jo 1E.f.1 0 6.:. i E.~~E.l E:C:6 1 2.861 98E.1 £86·1 t-E:E. 1 €~:=:,:. t a:=:E. t "[:=:E. t 0 :::E. 1 'l
1 '?E: 0
1'3:=:1
1'5':::2
1 '?::::.:::
1 '5':::4
1'?:::5
1:?:.::,;
1':_;,87
1'?:=:8
1 ·~·::: .. ::. .... ·-· -·
1 '?'?0
1'?91
1 ·::·::.·::. -· -· '-
19'3::::
19'?4
1 ·::!':: C' ..... · ·-·
1 '?'?6
1 ·::·~"::' ..... I
1'?'3:::
1999
2000
2 001
2002
2003
2004
2005
200E.
2007
200:3
200'?
2010
TABLE I-14
E:E~u,_; .. ~ COAL DE?ELOPMENT
++ • I • t • • ...-++++-t I • i t t ... +-~
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
.............. ....,........... ~ c ~ ~ ....... ~·
THOI_!~S:Ariii:s: OF EMPLOYEES
........................ +++++++++++~ ................ ~ .................... ~.
LOi.o.l I .• JA6E E;>:;Q13
MHiH-11:; E:>::OG COt-i-TF.:ArE;-
EMPLO'r'MEtiT :s:TF~UCT I ON POFHATION
EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT
---· -------------~-------------
0. 0 0 0
o. 000
0. 000
0 = 0 00
0. 000
o. 000
0. 000
o. 000
0.000
0. 000
0.210
0.419
·0.41'?
0.41'3
0.419
0.419
0.419
0.419
0.419
o. 41'?
0.41'3
0.41'3
0.41'?
0.419
0.41'?
0.419
0.41'?
1}. 41 '?
0.41'?
0.419
0.419
o. 000 0.000
o. 0 00 Oo 00 0
0.000 o. 0 0 0
0. 0 0 0 0.0(1(1
0.000 ·o. ooo
o. 15 0 ·o.ooo
o.:~:oo '0 .. 00 0
o. 400 0.000
0. :.=:50 0.000
0.200 0.000
0. 1 0 0 0. 05:~:
. --o. 00 I) 0. 1 o.s
0.000 0.105
0.000 0. 1 05
0.000 0.105
0.000 0.105
0.000 0. 1 05
0. 0 0 0 0. 105
0. 0 0 0 o. 1 05
o. 0 0 0 o~ 105
0. 0 0 0 0. 1 05
0.000 0. 1 05
OeOOO 0. 1 05
0.000 0.105
o. 0 0 0 0.105
0. 0 0 0 0.105
0. 0 0 0 0. 1 05
0.000 0.105
0. 0 0 0 0. 105
0. 0 0 0 0. 1 05
0. 0 0 0 0. 105
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE BCL.04T
I-22
r
r
r· \,
L
f
\ I
r
f
r ~-
fa"''.
1-~
I
t..
~
r
[_
(
{~
~~'
1_~
(
f l:
L
r·
[
{~
c
r t ~
['·
_c_
t
r· Ll
r"'
I
I
\;
r--·. Ll
r-~
-
c
(:
c
[·
r~
ri
(
L
f ,._ _ _;;
TABLE I-15
;.:ED DOG t1HiE -............... ..............
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
+ •-++-++ 4 ' • t t • I I t • + I .. 4o
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES
++++++++++••·····~+
++++++++-............
LOW WAGE
MINING EX06 CON-
EMPLOYMENT STRUCTION
EMPLOYMENT
19:30 0.025 0.000
19:::1 o. 025 0. 000
1982 0. 025 0.000
1983 0.025 0.000
1'?::::4 0.035 0.100
19:::5
1 ·;:.:::.::.
t·?:=;?
198:3
1989
1990
1991
1 QQ~
~~~
1 .:,.~-j
.L ... .r -·
1'3'?4
l QQ~ ~~~
1996
l QQ~ ~~·
1 9'5'!3
1 '?'?'?
2000
2 001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
200:3
2009-
2 010
0. 021
0. 026
0. OE'l
0. 44:3
0. 44:::
0. 44:::
0. 44:::
0. 44:::
0. 44:::
rr ·"' ...• -. ,_,. ""t~·=·
D. 44:::
0. 44:::
0. 44:::
0.448
0.448
0.448
0.448
0.448
0. 44!=:
0.448
0.448
0.448
o.44e
0. 44:3
0 e 44:::
0. 44:=:
0. 15 0
0.200
0.150
0. 0 00
o. 0 00
0.000
0. 0 0 0
0.000
o. 0 00
, .. , , .. , ,-, ,...,
1.,1 Cl ,_, 1,..1 • .. •
0. 0 0 0
0.000
0. 0 0 0
0.000
0. 000
0.000
o. 0 0 0
0. 0 0 0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0. 0 0 0
o. 000
0.000
0.000
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE RED.P~H
I-23
'] ·\ ' \' J '., .r E/ IJ "'~. _.1 :J .] '·· J J vZ-I wrd·wxa 3S8J l3aow d8W :3Jdnos ooobo ooo·o ooo ·o oo o ·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o o o o ·o ooo ·o ooo·o ooo·o ooo·o 1}(1 (I "I} ooo ·o ooo·o ooo ·o 1)(11)"1) oo o ·o o o o ·o o o o ·o ooo·o o o :::: ·o 001::-"0 .oo~·o o~:::·o 0 t-O • 0 o o o ·o o o o ·o o o o ·o OE.L"O 0 E.L • 0 OE.L"O (16.:: ·o OE.L"O 1)€ . .!_. 0 06L"O OE.d."O or.: . .: ·o 06L"O o.:.L ·o 06L"O OE.L '0 OE.L"O 0 E.L D 0 or: . .: ·o OE.L"O 06L"O OE.! ·o 0 E . .::'. • 0 0 E.L "0 o.:.L ·o OE-.::'.'0 :::~o·o :=:~o·o E:£0 • 0 -!t-o ·o tt-o ·o I) ::::o • 0 Z!O "0 --------------------.U..J3Wl.Dld~·J3 ~DilJndlS l~3WAOldW3 -~OJ 90X3 9~I~IW 3.:::Jl::l/1i fliQl ...... ~ ........ .. ............... ..;-.;. ... .... -·· I •• I*-+-++++-+-+-+++++++++ ·s33AOldW3 ~0 SU~l::ISnOHl ... ; ....... ~~ ........................... . S~OildWnSSl::l ~~3WADldW3 ................................... : x8::~o::r • s · n 91-I :ngy;r. o to.? -6002 :::o 0 .'? .::'.002 9002 G002 i:-002 :~002 2002 1: I) 0 2 0002 6~.~-! :::..;..;:.! .LE.E.! 96.:. 1 . ~.: . .:.! t-661 f661 ·?f.f. t t ..:..:. ! OE.E.! ::::::.:. t .,:.:::.:.1 9:::E.! f;:::.:.! t-·::::.:. t :::::;6! ! ;::,:. t o:::.::.!
sz-I ~.!2"tH::2 ·~ 061 "i::' 0 102 6002 ::::002 ::::~! "t-L002 LO 1 "to '300c' 990"-t> 920 •t-£0(12 t:-002 C:002 !002 6'38 ·::. 0002 c.·-) •. -. -· ~.:.... c.. 69t-"f ~::::;... t: OO'f::'"E. .-.. -.. -... -. ·:.-·:.-·:-r:-0 0:::: Q::. .lJ.J3W.J,OldW3 !:t ~-J H~ Hi · ......................... .. . ' ........... .. .. . . ....... ' ... '; .. ~ .............. S33AOldW3 ~0 SU~8SnOH1 S~OI~dWnSS8 1~3W~OldW3 Etf-.H J..J I W ::f3Hl0 Lf..f., I 9E.E. 1 £f.,f..! 'Vf.f.'t 2661 !f..f.! OE.f. t f.t:6 1 E:::::E.! .!86! £:~6! t-E:6! . ::;::::6! 2E:6! 1t:61 OE;f.! _j -., r-j ', I ,) ~-l .-:J " ' . I ! I 1 I - I 'l : I t---d
TABLE I-18
AGF.: I CULTURAL
••+++++• ......
EMPL6YMENT ASSUMPTIONS ...... .._._... ... ~···~·····4·· THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES
... ~.............. • 4 4 • • • • ........ + • • ~ ...........................
AGRI-
CULTURE
EMPLO~MENT
1980 0.183
1981 0.188
1982 0.194
1983 0.203
1984 0.211
1985 0.219
1986 0.228
1987 0.239
19!38
19::::9
0.250
0" 2t.:;:
1990 0. 276
19'31
1 ·::r·::r·:· ... ..,.. ,__
1 '?'?:::
1994
1995
1 qg~ ~~~
1 QQ? ~~·
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
200?
2008
2009
~010
0.291
0. 30E .
o. :.::25
0.343
0.365
0.389
0.414
0.442
0.474
0.508
0.527
0.546
0., St.:::
o. 5==:·?
0.~·11
0.634
O. 6E.(I
(1., .:. :=: ,:.
0~772
0.740
............. ++-++
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE A6R.PJM
I-26
[
[.
r-,
\ !
J~
r·
\ .
r
r·
{~i
I
I I .
\ ..
(
,_.
L'
r
c
~t -·~
f-\-'
r 1-~
(',
I • J -~
.. ---
l
[
r·
L~-
\-j
l .
[
r··.
l ...
r'-~
l"
r
L~
\:
L
r~
f
'--· "'\:-'
t--, I I
,"··
l
r··
\)
Ld
L ' \
L..
r-:
l.~
r~.
-~·
r-·
f
1-----:::
·---4
r-
1980
1981
1982
1983
1J84
1985
19==:6
l QO, ~~(
1988
19g9
.1990
1991
1 ·~·~-~ ~~~
1993
1994
TABLE I-19
;:-OF:ES:TRY, LUMBER, Arm PULP . ... ............................ .. -. . .
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
+++++++++++++••·······
THOUSANDS: OF EMPLOYEES . .
+++++++++++++++-+-+++ ........ ·
++++++++-... ......................
LOt•J l·.IAGE
E:=O::OI; r1RtiU-
FACTURH~G ·
-EMF'LO'lMENT
2.204
·=· ·:;,7.-:.
\-a I.-I ·-'
2e ::::45
2. 41:=:
2.494
.-,. C::~·:;,
c:.. ·-· i ._
.-. , C"·-· c. II f'.:r._l.j
2~~ 7:~:E.
211 :=:22
2.911
3. 0 01
~!. 0'?6
:3. 1 ·~·:. -· ·-·
:~:II 2'3:=:
~~: II :;: ·~E.
1'?95 3.503
1 9'3'6
1 '?97
·:· ;:., 1:3 ·-1 II -.-. ~--.~ .:. ..... c. •.
1 '?'3::: :;:a :::4~!
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
201ri
3.964
4.103
4. 1 03
4. 1 o:~:
4. 103
4. 1 03
4. 103
4. 103
4. 11):3
4.103
4. 103
4. 1 1):3
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE FLP.SCM
I-27
~ (.•; 8 N 0 00 ,-.:15 (") m .. 3 :r• 1J 3 0 1::1 m ,...... ("') JE• (.··) (TI -f n ., . 0 0 ~ ~-r:~. ruru~rururorururururu~~~~~--~-----------·=· o=· ·=· ~=· ~=· Ce '=· •=; ·=· ·=-·=~ •.(1 o,J) •.(1 •.(1 •.j) • .. (1 O,J) •.(1 •.(1 •.(1 '.(1 •.a) •.(1 '.J) •.(1 • . .(o '.J) •.J) •.(f • . .1) -oooooooooo~~~~~~~~~~oooooooooooooooorooo o~oo~~~~Mru-o~oo~~~~wru-o~oo~~~~wru-o ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ til • a til Ill II ll II II It I Ill .,IOO'Igiiiii!OOI(t'"l --~-~--~-----------------------rurururururururururorururururururururururururururururururururu wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ q! II l:t Ill G1 I tl !I II II 0 D Ill Cl I tl e f Ill I til I I 0 II II II til II II I wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww ~·--~ 1"~) ·~-:J> ~ ~, I • r-:r r-1 • :A ....--.:~ ----"ii ' .> ,........,.-....:;_ ' ........---, t n tO t ~ t ":J 1 rn .111 f m I 3 'TI ::-:; r-::J:.1 .I "'1J ,]) 0 q ~"") 1 r C• r:rr ::::: t-11111 i-i I~~ 3 === ti 3r to 1J r I 3 .:1:1 :r• I• i::;: ,, 1 rn 1--1 :z o:n f..··) t [J ., 1:z:zcrn l :t• l-~ ~ ·~ 1-lG"'I ::z 3 (/) tt ~ 111 I rn :r: H ~~ "7 1--1 ..... 3 j) -l :z 1J ;D r.n ~ r<TJ :r• [Jrrl ..... (.-·) .·-:·. N -:: (.··) •>·) t; H (.-~1 :z 0 3-II ,-0 rrJH :3 r :Z2 1J -tm gl~ -< fT1 m 2 -l (.1 ·~-) 0 :I ., H t (.··) J: t .,_, .. r-----. ,--.::..__,.. . J ,.........] ,--. _, ,.._,.., :--1
I'
r···
l,._;>
~
[
i'
~-\
l.
r··-
L.
r L
r :=-
I
l-
\
,....., I .
,.._,
L.;
[
L
r<
L~~
r·
l,•
r-... -~
' -, ~-
r
~-
L
r ~
19:=:n
1 9:::: 1
1 '3::::2
1 ·~·=·--=· ..... _ .. .,
1'?:=:4
1 ·~·=·<:' •. ·-··.J
19::::6
1'387
19:~::3
1 '3::::9
19'30
1 '::C'? 1
1 ·::.·~·=· L ...... L-.
1 ·::.·::.·:. ...... _,
1'?'?4
l QQC' ~~~
l QQ~ ~~o
1 QQ7 ~~·
1 ·~·::.·~ ~~v
1 '?'?'~
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
200'3
201ri
TABLE I-21
BDTTOMFISH FISHING
+-+-++ .................................................
EMPL6YMEN~ AS~UMPTIONS
················~ ..... . THOU:S"AtiDS OF El"1PLD'r'E-ES.
+++++-+++++++-++. + ........ .
• • ' ••• ++·
····~
LOW WAGE
EXOG MANU-F I:S:H
FACTUR HiG HAF.:\·'ESTit~•;
-EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT
0. 0 0 0
0.005
0. 018
0. (1:37
0 c OE. 0
0. 0'? 1
0. 130
0.178
0.241
0.317
0.413
0.531
O.E.7::::
0. ::::59
1; 07'?
1. 34:3
1. 67::::
Ou 208
2u567
·:::. 159
:3 II :::7:::
·:::a :3{~:
:=:a :;:73
.::a ;=:{:3
-:.. ·=·7·:· ·-· • ,_, r ·-'
:3. :=:7::::
":• ·=·-::-··:·
·-• o •-• I ·-1
~:0 :37:3
:3~ ;?.7:3
:3. 873
~:. :=:7:=:
0.000
0.028
0.036
0.044
0.,053
0.065
0.079
0.097
0.118
0.144
0.175
0.212
0.255
0.309
0~ 373
0. 45 (l
0.542
o. 656
I) 0 7:=:7
0.946
1. 137
1. 137
1. 1:37
1.137
1. 137
1. 1::::7
1. 1-:::7
1.137
1.137
1.137
1.1::::7
SOURCE: MAP MODEL CASE BCF.004
I-29
1 ) 'l I -~ ) ' I --· 'J "'~.' -'l ,_ 1 J J ~] .'-J --~ c -· ' l I I I ":-~ r( . I ,_ ,''1 f ., ') J J J J J .. ... _ ~ 0£-I Hrd"dHS 3S8J 13aow d8W :3J~nos --+~+++-+-.... ; .. ~ ....... oooeo ooo ·o oo o ·o ooo ·o ooo·o ooo ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o oo o ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o 00 0 • Jj oo o ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o oo o ·o oo o ·o ooo ·o oo o ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o ooo ·o oo o ·o oo o ·o 02f;"O E.L r ·o :::t-o ·o 0! 0 • 0 JJ-J3L.Jl.Dl dL.J.:! f..JO I l.::rn:::; lS -~-.10:1 £10:=<:3. 3~)81'1 H~H H . .. + I ' ; i I 0 • ; ; ; ; • + .... +-+-++-+ S33AOldW3 ~0 Sa~~SnOHl '* ......................... ~ .. .. Sf.,JOildWnSS8 1.~3WAOJdW3 " ... ; .; f ; ; I .; .; ' ; ; +++-+-+~• ZZ-I :nHYl 0102 t£.(1(1 .3 S002 .:!.002 90(12 ~002 i;-002 f002 2002 1002 ooo.3 t£.66 t .,!,: . .:.t 96€. t f;6f. T ~..: . .:. t f:E.E. r a..: . .:. r t6E.! 0 r;:..:. 1: 886! .L:::r::. t :::::=:.:. 1 ::::::.:.1 t:=:,:. 1 o:::..:.!
H:-I Wd3"W~9 3S8J l3crow d8W :3Jdnos ::::2::.: .,::::2 ::::2::: ... :~:2 c·-=z·:-· .. ·=·"=' ·-· '-· ._. ·-· '-· :::3::: . ::..2 ,-.--..-0 ,-• .-, ·:.··=··.:-·:.··=· ,-. -, .-. . ,-..., ·:.··=··:. ·:.··=· ,-.-,,-.II,-~ ·:.··=··:-.:, .. :. ,-. -, .-. . ,-. ...., e,. ·=· ·:-.:,. ·=· 0102 6002 ::::oo 2 .LOO 2 '3002 ~002 ?002 :::o 0 2 '2002 !002 0002 660:. t 160:.1 066! ,:;.::::6! :::::;:6 1 L::::.:.! 9::::61 f;;:::>:.! t-::::6! ::::::::6! ::::2:::: • ::·c 1: :=~E. t :~:c::: · :::2 o :=:E.l .U.J-3W .. l.Oldl·J?-,l.ol:lli l Hj ,t.l r111 3/·,Il:ll::f ......................... -++-++++++ _,....................,. ••••••• +. ~ ........ S33AOldW3 ~0 Scr~l:ISnOHl +++•• ••••• ~ .......... ~. S~DildWnSSl:l 1~3WAOldW3 -• • • • I • I I • 9 + + .. +-+ ,.L.dl:ll IlHJ ll:ld31l3,;:j ' j '-=-I l 1 ] ] j J . ' I
TABLE I-24
FEIIEF.:AL CI\·'ILIA~i
~·.._~++~' tl~++~
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
+•!~ ;•*·~~++++t•·~··
THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES ........................ ~ ~ ... ~. ~ ..
CIVILIAN
FEDERAL
EMPLOYMENT
+ + +-++++-+-.
·~ ........
1 ·?::: 0 1 :::. 0 05
1•?!::1
1·?:=:2
1:::. 095
1:::. 1:::5
1 ·j:=::3 1:::0 27r::.
1"~;:;4
1 ·::. .-. t:: .... ·=··-·
1'?:::€.
1 ·~~=:7
1 .-.. = .. :;, :::'·-··-·
1 '?:E:'3
1'?'?0
1 '?'? 1
1'?'~2
1 ·:r ·::& ·j ... -··..;;.}
1·:;.·::4
o( .:, ·:::.a::::"
.l .... -· ·-·
1 .:, ·:t~ ... · ... ·-·
l ·:=t·::...,. -· -· r
1'3198
l ·::.·:=t·::.
o" •" o•
2000
2001
2002
~00.3
2004
2005
200E.
2007
2008
2009
2010
1 ::: D ·:::E. 7
1:::. 45'~
1:::. '551
1:30 f.44
1:::. 7~!7
1:3. ::::~: 1
1 :=: ·:; ·=· e
-0· ... '-·-·
1'?. 02 0.
1'?.115
19.211
l';a 0 :::: 07
19.403
19.500
19.598
1'?" ~/?E.
1'?. 7'?4
1'3 0 :=:·~:=:
1 ·::. ·::. ·:. ·-=·
-· CJ ... ~· ·-·
20. 0'?2
20. 19::::
20.294
20. :.:::95
2tL 497
20.601)
20 a 7 o:=:
20. :=: 06
20.910
-·---· -.. ~:,.· ;:.·~::..·'-__ .. :.::.-..J~'"--:~:.:._-.,;-:_~·· ........ ..:.,.~_ . .._ c
r.
r
(_
L
r
\.
r
r
'--··
f,
....
I }.
I
~-'
r' \
L
[
[
1~
L
r J_,
I .
t"
:S:OUJ:;:CE: t'1F!P MODEL CF!S:E GFC. EFM { .
I L ..
I-32
c·
'
---~
r·'
I
r
l /
("
r ,J
,.,
' L ~
r .
L~
[
1--
1
L
[i
l-~·
I,';
•-'
b,;
,,
L:
L,·
I L-,
~·
L
APPENDIX J: SALE 83 (NAVARIN BASIN)
EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
OCS annual employment figures were provided by the Alaska OCS office
for 17 different job categories~ These job categories are listed in
Table J-1. This appendix discusses the procedures used to convert
these employment assumptions into inputs for the MAP and SCIMP models.
The employment figures were provided for four different cases which
differ with respect to the oil and gas resources which are assumed to
be discovered as well as the location of facilities. The cases are
referred to as the .6 Bbbl case, the 1~2 Bbbl remote case, the
1.2 Bbbl road-connected case, and the 2.4 Bbbl case. The difference
between the two 1.2 Bbbl cases is in the assumption about whether or
not the oil trans-shipment facility in the Aleutians is
road-connected to an established community.
The OCS employment associated with each case is shown in Tables J-2
through J-4. The assumed locations of facilities for each case are
shown in Table J-5. Tables J-6 through J-9 show, in matrix form,
these job location assumptions as applied to the OCS job categories.
After assigning employment by location, the next step in determining
OCS employment inputs for the MAP and SCIMP models was to determine
residency pattern-s ot" workers. The SEAR (share of employment to
J-1
· · ~~k;~,::~~~'i·d~~t s: r ~.'ana
~--'
;,· -;··>· _.,
· assumptions used are shown, in' Table J.-10~
The: MAP· and SCIMP model OCS employment inputs were obtained by
applying the residency coefficients to. the employment figures for
each location and aggregating these numbers~ The MAP mode 1
employment inputs are given in Tables J-11 to J-13. For the MAP
model, non-Alaska residents were counted as half an employee, in
order to take.account of the smaller impact that they have upon the
Alaskan economy~ The SCIMP model employment inputs are given in
Tables J-14 through J-17.
J-2
r··
. r~
{~
f"'
f,
L
r
i .
J
f
L--,__,
F' \..
r .....
r~ t
[
L
r
L
r \
r
L
L.
•-,'
,-~
i
L.'
('
l_ ___ ~
r .
I l '
l"
I--
! L,
L.
i .
l.~·
II
w
r -~
k;
l,/
, .. ,
I '--·
~-'·
I
L~
~-'
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
• --. '-·--• .-·•~L~.:. -•• < ••• •-• .:.~: ·.~ _: ......;..:_-___ ._,_ •• .:.,. • .:..: •• ~.-~<:_·,<._•.:..;:,..;1.:-........,;_<..:,~~~._\.~-.~· :,·, ~·-~~~::,:._;~-;;_,~,"-o,.;.:,;.., .,,.:.:.,:.~·:-~,,_..;,_,,-l.i.-" ... ....:t>'i-.>.:-'•.,:,_-' .. -.-.:•~o
TABLE J-1. OCS EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES,
AS PROVIDED BY OCS OFFICE
Exploration drilling rigs
Exploration aircraft.
Exploration vessels
Explpration shore bases
Construction platform installation
Construction shore bases
Pipeline construction
8 Oil terminal construction
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
LNG terminal construction
Production drilling
Production aircraft
Production vessels
Production shore bases
Production headquarters
Production oil terminal
Production LNG terminal
Production operations
J-3
1oi'EA~~
. : _._: .. :..::.....;..___:__.._·_ .·~. ~.·.-~·:_;. .·:;~:.·· .. ~:':o!.z.::.~-.: -~-~:."•:.~: ;,,.;'~~·;~c: "..:_
TABLE J-2. OCS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS, BY JOB:
.6 Bbbl Case*
1 . .., .:.:: 3 4 5 .. s 7 8
1985 ~). 0.; () ·> (J + 0 <!--4 (.t (j ,. ().,. 07
-19·9.~ 160. :L2. 40. -~4 ·c;-;-~) + 1....)+ o.,. -~ tJ ~
:2 if(!+ 1'787 ·! -:i
.J. '...J + .~\) +
1988' 400 .. ....... -. ..!· t..J • 100+
17'89 .. ·"' .·~ "-}\.i!J + 30 • 1 Cu"J +
·40 + o.
.'1. "'"~ ·"1'-.. i + -~ ....... +
~+~' ~ () ot
() T
.. ~
'..} +
o. () y
3()C! + .:).
(:. ~
·) +
IJ +
1990 560. 42. 140. 40. o. 25Ci + () + -~ V.;
1991 320. 24. so. 40. 1112. o. o. o.
1 9·v-2 so ... 6 ~ 2 o + ·<+ o • _22 2 4 T ·-o-:----ci-.. ----c;-:-
1 Q•:J-:' .-,..; '*I
1994
1995
199.5
1'":197
r-s:~$·8
1999
Ct •
-0.
o.
o ..
0->
o.
o.
o~
o.
i)"i'
() ~
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
() t
o.
lj + 3336 + i..) ...
o. 1112.; lj+
o. 1112. o.
c~. •':J.,
0 + () +
(J +
.. -..
'..,.,;' 7
{\ ...,.. +
" \} + . ..
' .• } +
?. • .. }..;
() +
..;...• .;
-~ I._J +
iJ ~
o.
o. -----. --------··---·---· -··---
0. C'"' " " ~ i._} + !..) + l..J.,.
;~ + -~
"-"' 7 o. o.
o .•
o.
o.
0 >. o. o~ o.
•) +
o. () ~ f)+ • .. j .;.
. =--------,.-----------· -----------------L001 o~ o+ o. o. o~ o7 o. o~
2002 o. o. o. o.
2003 o. o. o.
2c,o4 c,. c)-;-----,j to
2005 o. o. o.
0.. ·). 2C)CJ6 " VY
~-• •. } ...
o.
o.
C• .,.
o.
" • .. ,t +
Cl +
C, •
0+
J._.~ + (J +
()+ t).
~:;·:-·----· 0 + ----
0 ·.-0.
() ~ o.
() +
o. -------· ~
'""*·' ..
Ot
()., ---------------· -------·--·---·----·-··----2(;(}/
2~)08
2G~()9
--2{J"1V
1'"'\,"1. .r .s .:.,l.,...!., .!.
o ..
() +
lJ ·.~
(j +
o.
0.
o ..
-~
',.,I +
o.
() ...
" 'J •Jo
o.
o.
ft ft ~ ft
(:· + Vo V+ Vo Vo
n ',,,.1 ,.,.
() +
C* +
o.
o.
o.
(j +
o.
o.
().
o.
o.
() ·)
..,
:,} +
o. o. -----------
() + 0 +
n ~
Vo 0o
o.
o ..
0 >. o. o. o~ o. o. o+ o.
:::;r...,t J. ~ (.,""t.. i.) + ij + (j + 0 + ; (} ;:-()-:----;:;-.--
2014 0+ O~ O. O. O. o.
o.
() + () +
2015
2016
2017
. 201:3
o. o. o. o.
o. o. o. o.
?1 'v +
n
• .. .,1 '*
0+ o. ------------·------
(}+ o~ <>.
o.. o. o.. o. o. o. -~ t,} + o.
o. o. o. o. o. o. o. o.
2019 o. o. o. o. o. o. o. o.
2020 n
l.wl • o. o. o. o. o. o. o.
*See Table J-1 for job code.
SOURCE: Alaska OCS Officeo
J-4
[
r
r \ .
[I
L
f,
f i
L
r
c·
J
f
!:..:. ..
,-~
t
L
r= t
["
b
[· __ ·· -.
~.
['
L
f'
f-.
J-
L
L
s-r • C· • C· + () "'C1 ·~:} ·c~ ·() ~o •t) ... c, ·c, .,.J ----· ________ ..:.,_ _____ ,;,_ _____ ---=-------=---'----=:.,__---=--·o 6o lj . ·:: ·--·s} __ ---~-~~~~-___ _::.p --·o + C• +. -V(.. + .:. ... 7 .,. :_. ·o ·o9 ___ ·c·tt .. L •o _____ ~£~----·~r.~~~----·-(~)-~O~£~--·~c~;9~J~~·, __ ·~:~3~~-----·~c~~z~·-~: __ ·~o--+ () ~'" t·-· :. + (! ~ !-. ,._-. .;:.: -'-· + r=: •':;" +St.~ • C• .+ o;: r ·o ·o~~t •o ·c~ •T~ •nne •no~ ·p~ •n7T •h ----. . ----------__ .... ______ ,._._-_______ ._._._:::::. .... -:.:· .. ~.:.! .. : ____ -::_~----...:~~:...!"_. ___ -::__ ---. "'0~'-t?T. {,(:· --~------··--....... ~ r,j "(.'" 1:.~· T. + •) ~ .. -.. ,_, .. ,._ . • ... .' +. ,.-•• ·~· ~ () -!1-C·C•Z + 0 ----------•.. ··-··----. ---... () + C} • 1:) + , .... ·~· -· ....... -·-. -· --.. ------·----·-·---·--· ·-------------... _ ... .,. . :..., :.. "'as-eJ lqqa g· ~'T' ,, . v ~ :aor AS 'SNOildWnSSV !N3WAOldW3 SJO ~2-r 318Vl ,_, __ . .,... ... " .. -. ·":-··-:_·..,.-_ ... _' ·o ·. ·. ] ·J "l ._ __ j __ j
c_. 0 0"1 r-i. -r'i-. "' ,I r:-l/) 0 c :;;o n fTl .. ~ __, PJ Ill ~ PJ 0 n l/) 0 ..... ..... -'• 0 co r-~ t * Vl co (I) -1 PJ CT ...... (I) c_. n __. ..... 0 ""'$ '-'· 0 CT 0 0 0.. 11) I 1·.) 1·."1 t ·1 I·. I 1·· l 1··.) t·.:il 1· .. 1 I;·. 'I t·.) ;· .. 1 1.1 1·. ,: I\) l\1 (')t () (' (.o () c:· (~· (''t r(t ('f (.• (·· r:.:··i ( . .t (.t L.l t···· 1··. •·· •·• I···· I""· '"'·'·lr··· ~"'·jl··'· .::·· .::.:•!(') () (• •U 1..11 ' .. J I} ()'j .t.··ll:ol!r .. l 1 .. •.:<::.• 'II •:1)1 '·.1 fl·· I I I I I I 1<1 1'-.) I."! 1· •. !1 1'·."1 t·."l 1-' I·' (:o1 () •. ~:· (:•1 •.:::. c·· ·~·i '•I .I ( .... ,,a:· .. ·: ., ('•,! ···~ , ...•... r. ··n tl~ .i. (ol ;:.:·,; ..... ":' '·11,1 1):1 I ~-·I ...... •.f; ··d ··•:~ .. n '··..! Cl·j I I a. (~·!. t· ,,,1 ~ .... '·'·' -.:1 ··n: ··l.l ... p (.11 "fi '{lo '·I) .~:. (ol h) t·•· 1·'1 t·• ··n -.n -n '•(I '··1..11 (.IJ 1 .... c· -o t"' 1·'11··'· I··' -r1 •n •H "" (I) (I) (I) ((I r.:o ,J, O·· 01 I I ! "· . . ... ,... ... ... . .. , -.... r·l·"· ,.. .. ! .-. c_ .. t..• '· .. ~ ..... : • ... .:: •:.:: (.~)~ ~.-: '·-~ ..... -' ....... ,.,., • ... ..:, '····' + f •I· .. -1-.,. .. ... ... ·: ... ... .,. I .. ! I I ~ ~i~ ~u~ . . . i --.I( ... , -·-· ( ... !, .... , ~r ~, .-( ojc· c) .::>jo + + • <C• •• 0 C• () + (') •:::. r.:.:a oboco(:.> + ~ + .. c ('~'~(-.... 1 _J ··" oC· 1-4 <· 0 O!O .. CIO 0 + • 010 0 I I I I •:) (:)j •::) c:: <:::; c::a .::.:. •I + I •1-·I• 4• t <· (0 c~ooojo .. . • .. I .. t·.:l .t··l '·.J ..~:,. r:ul r·.J oc),o .. ..... J 0·1 kl t· . .'l .t~ ..r.: • C .. , ("'o ('"• c·· J ··I ,,} ,.,.o + + I I (") ,.J <') , ••. , • .,! , ... , -.... ~, ..... .,,;t ••• ' 1,;,,)1 ' 0 t-' l•.ll Ul til .t:.l ~ .. ~ 0 .::::1. C• 0 <:.>j 0·· CO C.t··1 -~· .t·· (1) CO 0 + • I • • + • • + • • • • • ....... 1. --, ("··I --·, c·) c·-t ·-·, o cl c) c-) .. _. •' .. _. --~ .. _. . ~~~~~ N~N1mm~~~ ~00000000 + <· + .. .. + • + ,. .. + + .. l 0 f-) 0 <.:> 0 0 OIO 0 O{O 0 O(O 0 OIO 0 OIO o o!c,·o o ~~~~·~~~,~ oodoooooooo +I+ -to .. + o'l.oo + .. 000000 + OIOO .. c:::.!o .. I· 0010 0 + .. I I . 0 0 0 0 0 0 OIO 0 olo . I. t ~ .. c,ooooo + 000000 + + ... I .. . 01'0 o oio + ~ ... ~'-) -:1~ ~ C•'C> + i• r-1 ["") .~ ,..--.., \ .• J I + + + • + ~ + 0 010 0 0110 0 o 010 o J1·0 0 ... ... + ... ! o cl·o o ol1o o + ... ·+ + + ,.,........_., '· . ~~ ' ,• + .. -.,! .. -.. .. _ ... _... .. i •· olo . I+ i o:o .. j• I I o;o + ,. ;-........ .., 4 .. I~ .. <0-1 c) ojo o c .. ~ 1.. .. .. C') , .. .) , •. , c"'l ~ -1'-" -• • I... • .. I • • + + .. 4· • ~~m~~ ~~,~ ~N~N~ ~~~~0~00~00 + • + 00010 ... + •· + .. + .. .. t·.Jj Ui I .~ ... £!1 n o 0000000 + + I . + + I • + I (t,, Ct-; i '·l ... ,J 0 o:o 0 o: 0 0 t·JII'·J 0 010 0 OIO 0 +j1· + ., .. +.,. + + + + + .. 0 O:C~) 0 .. • I. ~ l I '(1\ -.o -t:· -!::> ~::·1 ~) ? ~·>I ~.} o r--: .--... I olio o c;::>lo· o + + • • + ,r--..., T--i Ill :r· ;JJ ..... t· . .) (•I .t· 01 a-. '.J m ·:--:~ -1 ~ co r fTl c.... I w 0 n l/) __. rn •3: N-o r coo CT-< CT3: __. fTl ::z Cl-1 PI Ill)> COli) Ill Vl *c 3: -o -1 ,_. 0 z Vl OJ -< c..... 0 co ,_.:.-...,/ ' ·:---) , .. i ! L ~{' 1:', k. .. ~: ?:· ~-·,. r 1\ f F .-.. i F ,, I ~-~ ' f. ( i· (::: ,,. ,. f: ~-~· r. ~{. i;' f, :-~.: rr !'
? 0 -----~ (} • ·=·~---,l-... 1" ' .::! .,. r + ·:=t ~--· ·-:-._. ·r .._ . () . • , ,.. ·r ; ... .:.-.. + / /' 7-c. .. .:. .. •· L-r + ·~7' , ~--+ •"'"\'':"' 7 •:.., ·o ..:-·=· ... . \ ...... . .,. .-... ... ·=·•:.. .... -~ .• •.::· .. :. "" .-. . L' ~ r . . •._! . .. . :.. .-... ~ -':::0::· :. + () ., :-· .-:.. ·r _::.._ ... •• -. J' ... ~-=· :-.. () •or~T ·~~~ •!/T ·~r ••.1·.·-~ .• _r_. •n7o ---~---:? -~--...!.'_ ~-..:;.,-=--.. --=::..:·~-----=-=----------~::.. ··:··--· + .-•. ·• c.-::. + j-..!. 7 ..;;. ·--· ,. • ·? £ t:---r • s t··· £ • t.: L ·r • £ :; ·) <.J c) £ ~ C· :: :~: . ; .::. :: -.~ . ·._! ·o ·o ·o •::> T ' ,. , .... ,. ..;a;. + ,.... ...... .::..:::a + C·C~£ .... -. . ' .• ,: "' .-. •• '7"' :...;;=. :--!' .-. ·' .;: ... .__ .... -.. · . ;:::~ + -:o" .r L -~-·:· C• .;....,..~ ... -.._, ._ .. ~-+ ()():: ·oo: ·o ·o ·o -=-----=-... -----·-------.. -"'C,C•Z "C' + () ·o + c~ + () + {'•; .. { ... _, ... l\. --_':':.. ____ .. :. -------~ ... / ___ _ •()()Z + (} •::' T "-,. ~sas-eJ l qqg 2 •. l :soc AS 'SNOildWnSS~ lN3WAOldW3 SJO ·r-C 318~l ___ j ~, t --1 "--· ,_j .::1 i I <.-J c_.J
J ,-~"\ I l I ,_J J J J J +o . () ·o + t} ~ ·"·· 'v' + () 40 ~o *0 o(o•,) ·o -··o--fc-. -----~ o--·~(~) ·o ·o ·o ·o + () ·o a-r ·o ·o . 0 + () • C• ·o ·o (! ·o "0 OGC•Z ~.!C•Z s· ~.cit Ll:OZ 9!c,·z !::~\}" V 1: C1Z £TOt:: ttVZ !!0~ <tf) C•!Clz; +·c;----r-(J --rc~t --6~-(!C• t ¥0 + t) .. {.} + :.) s:: c~oz: £0<)(: + l.J • o .;. ci ~c:·oz: + 0 -· ···-·· ·-· ""+'" c::-··-·-. -~-0--·~o ----~-o---t-c,----rv o----r~"><() ____ ,....~ (.)1)-z--~ () + () + 0 • 0 c::ooz ·o ·o ·o ·o ·o +-c;----+-(3------<(=··c,------~ .. }J·---~-1)--__,_.-"'""(_) ___ L" • ..,..u----r·---·J ~OC•C.: 0(.!();::. ·o ~ () .. () ·o ·o 6661: ·o ·o ·o +o ·o + C~ . ·----·+ () -----~·"()---·-. ; 0-----t·-(;':-----.. ,•'"""~;,---..--,.,()-----..7~' LC·C:. + l) + () •c,££1: o(o£:~.:--£-r. ~() + ()£~; T. + £\:: .. £ T. <!-() + C•G ·os £t.6! •o9 ·et ·o~z Z66t -¥-()---,,J------~-<.1 _____ + ·~£6 "-1--;:.-:v------.-;:-.----s..-: --..,.-...-ll_'-_· ---.-...... ,,)~£ :.c.o ~ 2 ·o / . ,..,, .... '"":" \..•".::it..· ·=-Ol)£ + () ,-. .::1 <-c,v f. C•t." • Ot,. •ov ·~r •. .::z .. c~tvC: • ZL ~oc·r. ~c:£ • .. } r---:... .v.sas-e::J tqqs v·z • CtGL 066! ·oes 6St.t ·o96 .L861 + OOtY 98!;. T. \J :sor AS 'SNOildWnSSV lN3WAOldW3 S::JO ·v-r 3l9Vl
+s:·!·;)z: ~s::.~ ~r.c::2: +·?T.()(: +SG£ ~-rt.t:.: .p .~"":"":-· 0'-·:.:J 4' "'.. -~., . .,.· otLS + / C• .. _._. + C-T:-l::"' ""•="::"':" ~!.:.. 7 -+ /C ,-,. ·-· ·-· "-' ·-· ..=..; ,. '~ ._. '·~ ::_ ;. 9T. ~ C·£"J: .,. ()C;£ 6-(' + .~ , -\.} :._ "-· ·o +· '::,• -"7""":::-::::-;::o----~.,-------------.. ------"00£ ·o~tl 480~ ·oLz ·o { paClU ~:j.UOJ) -¥-sas-eJ Lqqg v·i . -~ •._.; ·o ·rc,--. ·eo 0 --. -·--... C,• ·--.. + c~ TT -.. :sor AS 'SNOildWnSS~ 1N3WA0ldW3 SJO ·v-r 318~1 ... -._,:.; .-.. ·: -·· .· . ,_, ' . 1 I ,_j ~--, i . 1 I '---' J ] --1 ..-'·-, £·--' l I _j J
-~····--'-. ''"--.: . '·-'·-,_·~··--··:.....:....:a-:..~--· •-'• ··"-···· .......... .:.~.~:..:....,...: .. __ _,_....,. .~J • ._ _________ '·-··· •• .:..... ...... -._...:. -··-~,_:...,.. ··'"----~-~::~:--:.~ .... -.·-~ •• ,<.,:,____,_.,.._ --_ _.. ___ •• __ ;._ __ ··--........ :. ___ :. ~· _,.;:· _ _,_ .· ... ,.. _____ ,: _____ . ··---···-·
TABLE J-5: ASSUMED LOCATIONS OF AIR AND MARINE SUPPORT
AND OIL AND LNG TERMINAL EMPLOYMENT, BY CASE (a)
Air· Suppo.rt (b)
Marine·Support (b)
Exploration Phase
Construction and
Development/
Production Phase
Oil Terminals
LNG Terminals
Case
~6-Bbbl
50% C.old Bay
50% St. Matthew
Dutch Harbor
Dutch Harbor
Transshipment
point at remote
site in Aleutians
None
1.2 Bbbl
·{Both)·
50% Cold Bay
50% St. Matthew
Dutch Harbor
50% Dutch Harbor
50% St. Matthew
St. Matthew, trans-
shipment point at
remote or road-
connected site in
Aleutians
St. Matthew
2~4-Bbbl
50% Cold Bay
50% St. Paul
Dutch Harbor
50% Dutch Harbor
50% St. Paul
St. Paul, trans=
shipment point
at remote site
in Aleutians
St. Paul
(a) All other employment is assumed to be located offshore except for .. head-
quarters," which is in Anchorage~ See text for breakdowns of 11 aircraft/vessels 11
into marine and air support.
(b) Includes associated 11 Shore base employment.
J-10
[
r~
[
r L
f'
r~
[
[
, ..
J
' I ·-~
c~
c
('
[
·--~
,c
L
r·
L~
L
f
(___;
c·
L
~
I
~
~
I { r-~ [; C.l, ] !],. J l ' j _J r:· l .; r-,
TABLE J-(i: H1PLOYMENT LOCATION ASSU~1PTIONS, BY JOB:
.6 Bbbl Case (Share of Employment, By Location)*
' .' -,
'
• .JOB DUTCH Ht-)HBOH COLD [l,~,y t=~t:::~IDTE !:iT 111~TTHEl·J OFF!:iHCli=~E tlNCHDt=~a~GE
p-·--·-· .... -.. -· .. ... .. . . ............ ··-····· . -· ··-.. -·-·~·· .... ·-· ..... -· ,. ··-
:1. o. o.
2 o. o.sooo
___ ;:t __________ -···-···-:L.t <W.<Hl.. ··-······· --···-·······O.t. ............ .
4 0.7692 0.1154
5 o.
6 0.0769
• 7 o.
-8 o.
'r o. -·-:u> --·-·--·--·----·---··<y;· ---·· ··-·-·-·-·· ..
:1.:1. o.
12 1.0000
o.
o.o.t:t.~:;
o.
o.
o. ·-· ·····-·<>·:·· -·
0 • ~-'j () () ()
o. --·:1. ~:r--·····-----------()·:··9()"(_;1-:f"----~---··--.----(f:<f'i~)~'j
14 o.
:1. ::'i 0. ·-·-···J /.; ................ ··-·· .. -() •
17 o.oaoo
o.
o. ·o.
().
o.
()~
. ... 0 t.
o.
o.
0.900()
() t
0, ~~;J~W
o.
o.
o.
o.
'o•Oo•OO-OOO•oOoo H•oo ·-·····-o.
() .
J.()()()()
o.
o.
o.
o.sooo
o.
0.1154
o.
0.01:1.5
o.
0.6670
1.0000 . ........ ... " ' o.
0.5000
o.
0 ·• 0 A :'.) ~'i
C• •
C• •
1,<)(j()()
() .
:1..0000
o.
0 t. . . ...... ·-· .... . o.
:1..0000 o •.
1.0000
o.
o.
1.0000
o.
o.
o.
o.
,.l
l,.·.;.
o.
() y \}' ::.~ () \)
*See T.able J-1 for job code explanation. For 1985 only, the location numbers for job 6, reading across, are .7.692, .1154, 0, .1134, 0, and 0.
o.
o.
.Qt. ..
c\.
o.
o.
o.
o.
() .
o.
o.
o.
o.
:1..00()()
·o •
\) t
() i
J
' !
' ,,
I 1 ,l ] ] J J J 1 ) J J J . "'-J -1 O"'llJ 0.0 0"' N--' CT> • c::... ,_. I ,_. ,_. (J'1 ~ =+> .. 0 -s 0 .. c.... 0 0"' -!-'(") wo .j:::o 0. CT> ""'oro X -c QJ ....... ::SllJ o..::s llJ O.c-t ...... 0 :::! .., 0 -s 0 (") Ill c-t -'· 0 :::s ::s c:: 3 o-CT> -s (/) '-'· 0 r:r C'l -s -ro Ill 0.. -'• ' 0 i I ZI-r I . o o fo o o ·o o c ;c o c:: _c i· .. .. ~· J· :Y.l I :~ ! ~~ ~ ...;:; £.:..l -.. ...... t..i :0 !0 ..... --...., ...... ' I i i ocr . . . '!b o.-.o '-00 t~.J 0 l i l oc ococ::c: o =---io c o c c c:: ::-.:. c o c o c :O c c .. ~ !~ • • ·• 4' • • • • • ~ t·...:: .-, ... 0 ·o:t.._ 0 0'-. .,-.. : .. : ....... '-= 00 0 0 ·0 0 000 0 0 C: . . < -----... _ ----... -·----:o Q-.. -c er .. ·:::: '.J <~o ; --.._, -· .._, --.... --.._, ,... -.. ,-.. ~.. .,..... ,.._ ... -... '-' ........ ..._.. .. _ ....... '-"' ........ :• .. --.._, ---...... ....... .... ..... ....... ~ 0 :..~· 0 .!,:;. 0 --.._ ,.._ ........ ..-.. .,_, ---.._.. c<::ooo :~ ' n 0 ,.... ' -Vl ::r llJ -s t1) ..., -=i, fTI 3 ~ ..... 0 « 3 CT> ::l c-r co « I 0 (") llJ c-t-..... 0 ::s * -1 )::::> co I fTI c... I. "'-J fT'l :::::: -o 1-'. I 0 N-< "? cofi'i 0"' :z 0" -i _. r-:::c 0 on t»> 0. -i I ..... no o:z ::s ::s::x::o CT>Vl (") (/) M' c:: CT>3: 0. '""0 -I (} ,_. PJO tn :z CT>Vl co -< c... 0 co
QJ * -s <.n ro ro ro "'-1 -I 0'\QJ 1.0 0" N~ y ro ~ 1-' I ............ (.TI ,.J:::. -+. v 0 -s 0 .. c..... 0 0" ...... 1-'(j wo ,.J:::. c.. .. ro oro .. X "0 QJ ~ ::s !lJ i::l.::s !lJ On-...... 0 ::s '"11 0 -s ...... ~0 ~ (.TI 0 ::s ...... '< n-=r ro ....... 0 (j_ QJ c-1-..... 0 ::s .::S 1:: 3 0" ro -s VI -+. 0 -s c..... 0 0" Q\ -s ro QJ 0.. ...... :':! <.::! QJ :"l -s 0 VI VI I ~l~ .... { 0'-C'C~ .,. : ... l oc ,.., ...... c:= : ,.., ... ,.., ·-· n-r I . ;-:. _, ;-:. ;-:. tJr ~1 ~ r-~ I I C} OlO C.: ; c. ·• !0 ;.,:;... it!i : t.=i 0 c:: 0 0 0.0 ... . 0' t.!l t.:'i ()1 ::.;.... 0 0 --.._. '-1 ! ,.._ 0 .... .._ . .._. . 0 --,.., 0 .._. ...... :-:.o:cccoooo o o .. · o c~. c 'J: ,..... ~ .. .... ....... . .. ~.. . 0 ~~ o. ..... .._. ooooooo;-:.oo;-:.o;-:.ooo ..... cco:-o-.,-.. : .._.. -·· ---0 0 c>oc·o ..... ! -.. ,• .. ~· ! . ·o ...... •'-' z <.n =r QJ -s ro 0 ~ )::> CJ I 1"1'1 ~ I co ii'1 :3: -o I b -< !-'":'<: . 1"1'1 -+. N :z -I I"'T1 CJ 3 0"1 "0 0"0 __. __, CJ 0 )::> '< :;c -I 3 ro ...... ro 3 0 ::s 0 ;z c-1- c-1-ro )::> <.n CJ CJ <.n '< QJ c: VI :3: lro '"'0 0 -I (j ..... QJ 0 c-1-;z ..... Vl 0 ::s CJ * -< c... 0 CJ "=. __ ,.---.... _.... I -~~ - 1 L ........
c...
0
I-' .r::.
...---.'!
TABLE J.:.g. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION ASSUt·1PTIONS, BY JOB:
2.4 Bbbl Case
(Shar·e of Employment, by location)*
• .JOB DUTCH HAHBOf~ COLD Bt1Y f~ENOTE ST Nf.~TTHEW
:1. o. o. o. o.
2 o. 0.5000 o. 0~5000
__ ,._.3 ... -................ L.OOOO ................. o. .. .0. .. . O.
4 o. 7 6<r2 o .:1. :1. :~i4 o. o. :1. :r..:':i4
::) (), o. o. o.
__ 6 _____________ ()_~_0.7.62.--·--·--·-.. ····---· .. -·0 .• iLl1 ~i ... __ ... _ ---·· ...... 0. 900\L .......................... 0. 01 J. ~.'i ......... .
'7 o. o. o. o.
n o. o. o.~5:J::w o.f.>~.,:;oo
_____ 9 .................... _,_,() ............................... 0...... 0. .. ... .. . :1.. ()()()() .. ..
:~0 . 0. 0. (). ().
· :1.1.. 0. 0 ~ GOOO 0 • 0 • !'.'iOOO ·
..:...1.2 ---------·-·----O .•. Ei0.0() ...... --.. ·-·--·---0.~ .. -----......... :....... ...... 0 ............... ·-·· ......... 0 • !'.'iOOO ........... .
13 0.4545 0.0455 o. 0.5000
l4 o. o. o. o.
... ....1 .. 5 .............................. -.. o ............................................ ___ .. o.~ .. __ ... .
:1.(.; o. .o.
1'7 0.0800 o.
. (). :J;;}:30
o.
o.
0.66'?0
:r..oooo
() t
OFF-SHDHE
:1 .• ()\)()()
() .
o.
o.
l.QOOO o.
1.0000
o.
Ot
1.000()
o •
o.
o.
o •
() v
" •,) f
0.9200
tiNCHOr:~(IGE
o.
o.
" • ... ) .
o.
o.
. .. Oe... ............ .
o.
o.
(),
o.
o.
.. .. ... () t . ···-··· o.
:!..()()()()
o •
() .
o.
*See Table J-1 for job code explanation. For 1985 only, the location numbers for job 6, reading across·,
are .7692, .1154, 0, .1134, 0, and 0.
r~-.., ,-...
I r; ,~ ~ ~ rl -. ~i ·~---i .---.. ,_...---., r--, !L. ,1 .... ._J i. .' ,': , t . . . , '~ ~~ :----; r-'7 -~
,;:_··
<"
TABLE J-10: RESIDENCY ASSUMPTIONS FOR OCS EMPLOYMENT,
Activity
~-·)
Exploration Phase
Drilling Rigs
Aircraft/Vessels
Aircraft
Vessels
'
Shore Bases
~ Construction Phase
" P 1 at form Insta 11 at i o.n
_,
='
--~
Shore Base
Pipeline Construct.
Oil Terminal
LNG Terminal
Development/Production
Phase
Development Drilling
Aircraft/Vessels
Aircraft
SALE 83 (NAVARIN BASIN)
Assumed Location -
Offshore .
Cold Bay
St. t~atthew
St. Paul
Dutch Harbor
St. Matthew
St.Paul
Cold Bay
Dutch Harbor
St. Matthew
St. Paul
Offshore
Cold Bay
Dutch Harbor
St. Matthew
St. Paul
Offshore
Remote transshipment point
Road connected
St. Matthew
St. Paul
St. Matthew
St. Paul
Offshore
Cold Bay
St. Matthew
St. Paul
J-15
II II
SEAR (a)
0
1.0
1.0
1.0
• 15
• 15
• 15
1.0
1.0
1.0
1 (l
I oV
.25
.5
.5
.5
.5
.25
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
0
1.0
1.0
1.0
SELR (b}
0
.05
0
0
• 15
0
0
• 1
.22
0
(l v
0
• 1
.22
0
0
0
0
.05
0
0
··a
0
0
-.05
0
0
TABLE J-10: RESIDENCY ASSUMPTIONS FOR OCS EMPLOYMENT,
SALE 83 (NAVARIN BASIN) {Continued)
Activity
Vessels
Shore Bases ·
Headquarters
Oil Terminal
LNG Termi n a 1
Production Operations
Assumed Location
Dutch Harbor
St. Matthew
St. Paul
Cold Bay
Dutch Harbor
St. Matthew
St. Paul
Anchorage
Remote transshipment point
Road connected II II
St. Matthew
St. Paul
St. Matthew
SL Paul
Offshore
SEAR (a)
.95
.95
.95
1.0
1.0 .
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
LO
.95
(a) Share of employment to Alaska residents (for use in r~P model).
SELR (b)
. 18
0
0
.22
.22
0
0
0
0
• 15
0
0
0
0
.08
(b) Share of employment to residents of Aleutian Islands (share of workers
not living in enclaves--for use in SCIMP model).
c
L
r
r·
r~
I
r
L
c
r
I
{
L
c~
L
[!
[
SOURCE: Based on Will Nebesky, "Patterns of Resident Employment in Alaska's .... {--
Outer Continental Shelf Industry," in Lee Huskey, et a1., "Economic ~
and Demographic Structural Change in Alaska," OCS Technical Report _
Number 73 (Anchorage, BLM Alaska OCS Office, June 1982). (_
r·
•~
l/
f
J-16 t:
t
LT-r :j.UawAOtdwa UO~l'E+...tOdSU12...tl :J.UawA'otdwa 6u~u~w +UawAOtdWa UO~:j.~n...t+SUOJ a6'EM MOl • 0 • 0 + 0 • 0 • 0 • 0 + 0 • 0 + 0 + 0 ~ 0 + 0 • 0 + 0 + 0 . v.::.G • !;6L • 0 • t=··.:.z:: • £.~,i. • 0 • 8:3£ • 9LvT. + C• • oc:•r ._ .. ·.-•.::~ • 9Lt'T. • 0 • 88£ • '7'Lv! • 0 • 88~ + 9Lt>·T. + t) . 8:3£ • 9.l~ t:;o]: + rl \, • 88£ + s--Lt-·r + 0 • ,_.,,r + 9Lvr + 0 C•O.=: + 8E~£ • 9Lt;·r + 0 • r,,-,,-. • 0/f:T + 0 O·~:.:.:r " a.-v i• • 8E:r:; • 9LV! • 0 ·s~~r::~ + 9 Lt.rT. + Cr • 88£ + 9Ltr! • 0 • 88£ + •=>OrT ·-· ._ . ..;:, .. + 0 • RRC. • ?:.L.9~ + (:r • OC•r-• T""'T,. •• -.. + 0 '-' '-~ .::. J.. (..I,}" • 88£ + ::::c::~c; + 0 -~ .S:.B.£~2.:~7. + () • nor .. C•\ .. '--:i • 9.~z::::: • 0 • 88£ • i-LJC: • r•n _-:aC•7 =x61W3 =6dW3 :xNJW3 oc:oz 6 T. C•Z sro: L!03 9 r c·z.: !.;T.C•Z v t c,z: £!0Z: 3 T. C•G T ro~ C•T.Ol t.ooz:: BOOZ: LOOG ?c~oz; !;002: VOOG "() ..... ..,. .......... •,.; (... GOOZ: T.OOZ: (\()(";7 6661: OL.l.T \-' ._, ~; ;. IJ-.. 4J_ '7' 6 t; . ! £t.-6 T. + -;-·~-. r <· VLBT. + Sf:,q _t:_t~l_ -'-~::.:-~:-::! • ..... T t .. + 0!;£'}: + £B()G £t. !:."~ ·7 ,.~ + 99£ • tro + ()6£! -;:tr,, T 0.;;,, (.,0·~ ~ :_:t_ t:f:;__:_p:::: £ •£69 r ~a,.~j_ • £~·£ • ':>8G + ·r.£T •J6=-! + 8G£ • 0()(:: + £9Z c:. 8::. ., i• +n'"':"'.-<· () () 7. • () OM' I _0'·"" : ____ ... -~--=--+ t''"'":P _t:;.c_. + c~zr • 0 Lse. -r + !;;Li: + or· 0 + C< 9se.r + () + 0 + or.z :; .. s ... ~'t-__ ___:.-.: • 0 • 0 • 0 t,.8t, "I: • 0 • 0 + 0 £8C,"J: ' _+s2. • ~ + 0 ~_e_tJ_ 1.) ! • 0 ~ 0 • 0 "J:Bt.! + () • 0 • 0 086T -X6lW3 6dW3 XNJW3 ~~3A as"EJ lqqa g· :slndNI lN3WAOldW3 SJO l300W d~W "LL-r 3l8~1 ,., ~l I ,_)
] ] J .J J J ] sr-r +UawAOldWa UO~l'el.lOdSU'e.ll +ualliAoLdwa 5u~u~w +UawAOLdWa UO~+~n.llSUO~ a5~M MOl :x61W3 !6dW3 :xN:JW3 ~o ·o +o ·o ·0 ~o .. 7_0£ •c,z:P •r; 4zo£ ·oza ·c, 0~0~ e.-roc:: !=:T('I?: LT.OZ 9T.OC:: tr!()~ •£s6 +o~o~ ·o £10~ ~£86 • 0vOZ._. _• ..... o __ (;:J0Z ~£86 •ovoz ·o tr.oz ·rs6 · ·ot,oz •o oro~ ~-£ 8_t.. + C' t.~ (J? • t',.;_'• __ 6_(! t'.J ?.: ~£86 *C•t::-CrC: -!"C' • }:86 t-Ot::-C'G • () • f~B.::. • ()t;()G + () +~_86 •c,tyOG •c• •£s6 •()t,.C•2: ·o .. £8e:. + (::£T.t:: + 0 • £E:6 • 08VZ: • 0 ··£86 + 9C•6{; • C• _ .. £86 •96~£ ·o •£s6 ·r6££ •,:. £()0_~:.__ T. C•C'Z C•C•O: L. .·· t.. T uC•v,;. 866! ·'.!.:. T .:....~· '-J ,.. -. £ 8 6 • L 9=-=, E:o-:T=-_ - • .,....o=----c;=-_. ...,..,.....!. ~..,....!, =-! -•£E:6 ~vr.r.£ +££t, +t,.££Z ·ot.s -+ttL ~--90 ~ =-r ..., ....... s=· 9 7· tt· £66! + 60.G • 68i •!L£V Z66! +t"'r"-._(:;z_ ·o££ •£v£ •n+>-7 vvi.J ·s6£ ·o9£ ·s6£ ·o9£ + ,-. , "":F .t.C•\...o + ()(::! ·o ·o ·o ·or.z:: ~o + C• + () ·o .+ 0 .. 0 + ·:r· + () ~o \.!1-l::: j ,_ v· _,~. sas~:J lqqa 2"l :slndNI 1N3WAOldW3 SJO l300W d~W "2L-r 319~1
5t-L' +UoWAOLdWa UO~+~+~odsu~~l :).UowAOLdwa 5u~u~w. +uawAo L dwa. uo ~ pn~4-suo:> a5~M MOl :x61W3 :6dW3 :xN:JW3 • ()£62: + • ()E:6L + ., C• ... ::-~ :=· ·-· ·> ()f2 -~· -· + =-· • ()£,:J • ·--· -:· C· £ ·=~· c . 0 0 () () ,, • .. , f) 02:02: 6 !()~ / r 0 ..,. ~ ~ '? :. ·:)(: ,.. ()2; :.:. ,. .7 -()(; i-C) ..,. .... ::., :::. ~ ... .. .. -· ·r~~ ·oL£ •£6£ t66t 836t . +o ~o ~or.G £86! ~rv--~v----r,v----y~ £861 2:86! ·o oS'e:J lqqg v·z :slndNI lN3WAOldW3 S:JO l300W dVW "£L-r 318~1 r l
YEt~ I:;:
1980
1981
TABLE J-14: SCIMP MODEL OCS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT
INPUTS: .6 Bbbl Case
DDL DH'IF'T ODL OIMF'T
o. o. o. 0+
o. o. o. b.
_j,_2.8'J o. .• , ______ o_. ..o_.__ o_._
1983 () + ·o. o. o.
198·1 o. o. o. 0+
__1_2B_5__ -· .-, .:,._;} _ 2.s.2.i oJ _______ o t __
1906 14. t.s. 42. 149.
198/' 17. 88. 42. 149.
_1_2_.88 . ":> -z
-~-· _ __,_122 • ______ :4 2 ._ ___ ----_.:LA 9 -•-
1989 .. ,,
..;)..;_ .. 613. 42. 149 •
1990 34. 410. 42. 149.
...:..1.£2' _:~<L_ ____ ...:LQJJ fi2 • 2 QJ_t,_ _
1992 10. 48. 118. 305.
1993 0+ o. 215. 536.
_1_7_5:._1__ ______ y __ t __________ Q_! ·--_____ £!_40 •------_605.L
19'1'"5 o. o. 266. 666.
1996· o. o. 266. 675.
1997 _(L_ o ·------·--2~§_. ______ 47::5..!
1998 o. o. 266~ 675.
1999 o. o. 266. 675.
_20()() ________ ---.. () t ... _.. 0.. -~~ii6 t 6"?5 +
DOL:
DIMPT:
ODL:
OIMPT:
Exploration and construction phase 1oca1 resident employment
Exploration and construction phase enclave employment
Operations phase local resident employment
Operations phase enclave emp1oyment
J-20
L
c
[
[
r·
{
L
[
r··
I-~ l_.
c
[
[:
c
L
[
r-. -· ·--
[1
("
l
L.,
L
r-,
r·,
l'
r.
r··
r·
r" ;__;
l.-
I ·-·
t
DOL:
OIMPT:
ODL:
OIMPT:
TABLE J-15: SCIMP MODEL OCS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT INPUTS:
1.2 Bbb1 Road-Connected Case
YEAR DDL
1980 ______ ().
1981 o.
1982 0 +
DIMF'T
·o:--·
o.
o.
DDL
--~-----··-· Ow
o.
o.
OHlF'T
o. .o.
o.
-1983 o. o • ·--(f. --· --·----- -·-o -: -
1984 o.
1985 72 ..
1986 17.
1987 32.
().
282.
o.
o. --------~-·---·---··. 88.
187.
')") ._ ... _ + , .. ~ .... ._..:... ..
1988 3,-s + 201-' y
l~:S9---~-~f5 • --b-:-, c·;:~-;-----2:~ +
, .-,
.. :;.. ....... w
1990 31. :{90. 22.
19~1 17. 88. 51.
--f9<i2-----·-2-e~·;-------3;i6-~-----------95~ -----·-
1993 16. 298. :1.64. p
1994 o. o .. 2\S" -------------·---···-··--· ·-···
1995 (j + o. ""i ·:~· l'j
~ ..... J...:.. +
1996 ~,' T o. 234.
1997 o. o. 23i4 .. _
1998 o. o. ,.., .. I J::\
_,._ ,,J ' •
1999 o. o. 23·4.
___ 2 C• 0 () ....... ') ~-. --' -. o. 234~
o.
o.
78•
-o i \j +
-·o lo..Jt
-------.....0
/ut
?8.
133.
215 •.
36··~.
1.1 ~r.
~:)::~ 8 ~
5-40 t
5 .. 1C• ..
540.
5-4() ..
540.
Exploration and construction phase local resident employment
Exploration and construction phase enclave employment
Operations phase local resident employment
Operations phase enclave employment
J-21
TABLE J-16: SCIMP MODEL OCS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT INPUTS:
1.2 Bbbl Remote Case
----·---. ----
'\'!"'-~a-, r c.:-·rr~ DDL DHiF'T O[tL or;-.. ·:r'T
1'7'!3C1 C• + o. o. r. t...,.l +
19:31 o. o~ . ~ • .. }. o .
.. ,-,."-':·~ .L70..:.: C• + o • o. lJ +
_1~i.8 .. ~ o. C• ., .~ ~ ~J _;, _______ "-!PL_
198·4 o. o. ~ •.. ) + o.
1'7':35 72. 282~ r.
1._.1 .. o ..
1 9\:::,4 _, 7 RO ·-· S'_? __ t __ :::!;; __ io_
1 s=·c:·7 -::-J w..:.+ 1:37 +
.,..., . ._ . ._ . 7·~ ./ .._. ·i'
17'88 36. 207. '":•'"l ..-~--¥ :?8 o)>
_ll_8 .. 9 ________ .4_S.. 6_·:-;:., i._ ____ 22_'1.-______ 7:3 i'_
1;7"7C• 31. 3·:;c. + 22. ·7s.
1991 17. ·=·o ·-•v + 51+ .: _.,.....,.
.:. ~ • ..j +
1 7·~?;2 ___________ _ 1()+ 3.:S2. ·~~~--. 2.:4_Q __ ._
19'';j3
199·4
o.
o.
314.
o.
:Lt-4.
211 .•
-·-· -· " ..jb-'t+
-4'7':~.
_1_~or:-t) o_. ?2.5.*------535._
1 '79.::, o. o. 225. 549.
1997 o. o. 225. 549.
:t -;; ·=;· :3 c, .. o + 2.2~3_t_ __ . _ _:.s ""1· 9 ·t_ __
1999 o. o. 225. 549.
·'J l'~ {', j~ .._v ·...r v
DOL:
DIMPT:
ODL:
OIMPT:
o. o. 225 + 5-49 ~
Exploration and construction phase local resident employment
Exploration and construction phase enclave employment
Operations phase local resident employment
Operations phase enclave employment
J-22
['
r I
r
[
r'
r
c:
r
r·
1-,
6
r· tc
[
[:
C'
~
L
c·
J 1-~
L
r L
L
:-:::_;;
L~
: ._··~~-........:~.·~---"-~: .... :.:...:.._~: ··.:·.::.._,·.··.....:...:::~.......:.~.:...> -·-'-·~--~:..:.:...:. . ....:....:.::_.._ . ...:.::_:_~~:·::..:..:j
TABLE J-17: SCIMP MODEL OCS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT INPUTS:
2.4 Bbbl Case
YEAR [f[il Dii"'PT ODL GIMF'T
··1980 o. o. o. ---o:-
1981 o. 0+ o. o.
~982 o. o. o. o.
1983 o. o.
1984 o. o.
1CCI:'" •~u.J
..... --. /..::.y 282 ..
2~=--. ---~12 7:
45. _.,,
..:..
266.
167.
o. -----;;~ •J y
(j i' c~.
t)+ Ci+
-~-,,.-------""-·;-s·· ~ .. :..+ /u+ .., ")
~..:..·
-,.~
/Ot
~~
/boO>
-~+ 732+ 22. 78-:-
199~ 40. 449. 22, 78.
1991 20. 108. 51. 133.
---r77"L ".J..J + 6\,1 4¥ 10·7rY ·:.z:_'f~-:-
..
DOL:
1993 10. 564. 193. 419.
1'194
19'?5
1996
1997
·: •:l •:lO
.1. ; I \J
1999
200CI
o.
o.
() +
lj +
" ' .. } ...
-~ \) +
o.
" \}.
o.
o.
" • .. } +
o.
o.
o.
:254~
283.
298.
298 ...
~~. :~; 7 . .,. + ----·--·· ----·-·573 ..
724 ..
724 ..
298 ;------::~-24~
298.
293.
724+
~-....,
,.-..:;~ ...
DIMPT:
Exploration and construction phase local resident employment
Exploration and construction phase enclave employment
Operations phase local resident employment ODL:
OIMPT: Operations phase enclave employment
J-23
J ,-1 J ] _/ 'j ] c J . ] 112-r --------.-··--·-····---. -. . -_··-·:-···-----
-,
-----,
_____;
_,
APPENDIX K
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BOTTOMFISHING EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS
This appendix discusses the calculation of Aleutian Islands
bottom{ishing employment assumptions used as inputs to the SCIMP
model projections. The future development of the bottomfishing
industry is highly uncertain. At present, only a small share of the
total bottomfish harvest is caught by Americans. An even smaller
share is processed by Americans, as most of the American har-vest is
sold to foreign processing ships under joint venture agreements.
However, there is a great deal of interest among American fishermen
in expanding bottomfish harvests and proces~ing activities.
The implications of possible future changes in the bottomfish
industry for the Aleutians will depend upon the rate of growth of
the total American catch, how and where the catch is processed, and
the residency patterns of workers in different industries. In order
to develop projections about bottomfishing employment, we made a
number of assumptions _ with respect to these factors, which are
listed below. The assumptions were made in consultation with the
Alaska OCS office. These assumptions and the resulting employment
estimates are in no sense a prediction of the future. Instead, they
are one example of what might happen, constructed in order to
provide a backdrop against which to measure the possible effects of
OCS development. -
K-1
Bottomfish harvest assumptions and the allocation of this catch
among different processing methods are shown in Table K-1.
Coefficients for employmeot per metr:-ic ton harvested and Aleutian
Islands residency shares of workers are shown in Table K-2.
Finally, Table K-3 shows the resulting employment projections.
K-2
[
L
[
[
['
r
[
[
f'
I
I
L
r
L
[;
[: '
L:
[
L
L
L
L
~
--'
--
"
='
=]
-
_c.
"·-~"·----· ~·~---.":" .. ~" --·,__,___.;._L,,,_.:"'.-·-_,.,,,,, •. .::......_•.~~--'--~·.-• ·-'---· _,_.· __ ,:_,.,
YEAR
1981
1982
--rvs~
1984
1985
1986
1-987
1988
1989
1.990
1991
'1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
199·7
1998
1999
2000
I
-CATCH
CATCHJV
-CA.T.Cl:iO N
CATCHCF'
TABLE K-1.
BOTTOMFISH HARVEST ASSUMPTIONS
(Thousands of Metric Tons)
CATC~CATCH'JV CATCFfON
87.3 .. 78~5 : 0~4-
111.4 ... •\ 100.0. ·o.5
1/4.7 160.0 0.7
259.1 240.0 t.o
344.8 '320.0 .. 1.4
432.1 400.0 '-''' 1 .. 9
521~7-480.0 ,:, 2~6
614 .. 1:···· 56o.·o 3':6
670.1 600.0 4.9
690.9 600.0 6.7
718.0 600.0 9.2
753.2' 600.0 12.6
798.9 600.0 17.3
858 ~ 4 . 600.0 . 23.7
'735 .6 600.0 32.4
1036.1 600.0 '44.4
1166.9 600.0 60.8
1337.0 600 .. 0 83.2
1558.6 -600 .. 0 113.9
1559.0 311 .. 8 155.9
CAi-CHC_F_' -
8 .. 4
10.9
14.0-
18.1
23.4
30.2
39 •. 1
50.5
65.2-
84.2
108.8 ··---140.6
181.6
234.7
303.2
391.7
506.1
653.8
844.7
1091.3
TOTAL U.S.---BOTTOMFISH CATCH
CATCH BY JOINT VENTURE TRAWLERS
CAI.CH-EOR-ONSHORE-F.:ROCESSINGc----
CATCH BY CATCHER PROCESSORS
K-3
TABLE K-2.
COEFFICIENT ASSUMPTIONS FOR BOTTOMFISH
EMPLOYMENT CALCULATIONS*
Employment per metric ton harvested
or·processed
Joint venture fishing boats
Boats fishing for onshore processors
Onshore processing plants
Catcher-processors
Share of workers residing· in Aleutians
Joint venture fishing boats
Boats fishing for onshore processors
Onshore processing plants
Catcher-processors
Value
.00222
.00222
.01010
.00718
• 10
.25
.25
• 10
Value
.00222
.00222
.01010
.• 00323
010
.50
.50
• 10
*Values were assumed to change in a linear fashion from the
starting values in 1981 to the ending values in 2000.
K-4
[
f
~~
[
,-
r~
[
[
r
I
L
c
[
[
[
r
[
r ,_,
L
L
L.
-·
··-'
--'
-'
;__j
1981
-1.982_
1983
198•1
_1_9..85 ..
1986
·1987
_1_9.88_
1989
1990"
-~L2_9_L_
1~92
:1993
-~.994_
:L995
1996
_1.9_97_
1998
1999
_2000
----···-__ :::_··_..;.:.__ --·----·· ~-·--~-··"--·--,___. ___ -~----:.. _______ : .......... -
TABLE K-3.
BOTTOMFISH HARVESTING AND PROCESSING
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
·--EMF'.JV ___ EMPFON EMF' O-N EM PCP EMPNRV
174. 1. 4. 60. 212.
222. 1. r:!' ..J+ 76~ 269. --:rss. 2. 7. 95. 406.
533. 2. 10. 119. 588 ..
710. 3. 14. 149. 775. . -
888. 4~ . 19 .. 185 .. 969 ...
1066 •. 6 .. 26. 232o 1172.
1243. 8 •. 36. 289. 1384.
1332. 11. 49. 3.:50 + 1530.
1332. 15~ 68. 447. 1611.
1332. 20. 93. 555 .. 1711. ... ---
1332. 28. 127. . '00 Ouu+ 1835.
1332. 38. 175. 851. 1987.
1332. 53. 239. 1051. 2175~
1332. 72 .. 327. 1295. 2405.
1332. 99. 448. 1591. 2685.
1332. 135. 614. 19_~_0 + 30~_7. ------------1332. 185 •. 840. 2384. 3441.
1332. 253. 1150. 2904. 3942.
692. 346. 1575. 3525. 3968.
EMPJV EMPLOYhENT ON JOINT VENTURE TRAWLERS
EMF'NRON
. . ·.' 3 ..
4 ..
5.
7~
10.
. . 13 ..
18.
24 •...
32.
43~
57 •
77.
103.
139.
185.
248.
331.
442.
590.
787.
EMF'FON EMF'! OYMEN.L..llL..E1S.H.INCL.EOR_ONSHOREJ..:ROCESSING. __
EMPON EMPLOYMENT IN ONSHORE PROCESSING PLANTS
EMPCP -EMPLOYMENT ON CATCHER PROCESSORS
_EliE:NF:lJ NO.NRE.5_li!ENLWORKERS_OIL\.'ESS.ELS· -------
EMPNRON NON-RESDIDENT ONSHORE EMPLOYMENT
·EMPR RESIDENT ON AND OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT
K-5
·-------EMF'R
25 •
31.
47.
69 ..
91_._
115.
140.
16_?.:_
191.
208.
232.
263 •
-~=-,:,V..J+
361.
436.
537.
6_?3_._
857.
1107.
1382.
J
]
]
J
J
]
J
]
]
'
~J
~
"""" -,
~
APPENDIX L
CALCULATION OF·SCIMP MODEL LABOR FORCE
PARTICIPATION RATES
Labor force participation rate data were not available in the form
required by the SCIMP model, which requires breakdowns by age, sex,
and race~ In order to calculate these rates, a procedure was
followed which amounted to assuming rates for Non-Natives and then
calculating rates for Natives, which would be consistent with the
total assumed labor force, total resident population, and total
employment.
First, an unemployment rate of 6.6 percent was assumed, based on the
average for the years 1970-1978 (see Chapter II). Given total
resident employment of 1,469 (Table 28), 6.6 percent unemployment
implies a total labor force of 1,573. Given a total population of
3,484, this implies an overall labor force participation rate of
42 percent. However, this is not yet in the form required by the
SC IMP mode 1 •
The next step was to assume labor force participation rates for the
Non-Native population. High rates were assumed on the theory that
few Non-Natives would live in the Aleutians unless they were working
there.
L-1
The assumptions for Non-Native labor force participation rates are
shown in Table L-1. This table also shows the resulting labor force
for Non-Natives by age and sex.
These figures result in a ·total Non-Native labor force of 636.
Given a total labor force of 1,573, this implies a Native labor
force of 937. If the same labor force participation rates were
applied to Natives, they would imply a total Native labor force of
1,388. In order to calculate native labor force participation
rates, the Non-Native rates were reduced by the fraction 937/1,388,
or 67.5 percent. The resulting rates are shown in Table 31.
L-2
L
[
r·
[~.
[
r
[
L
r·
I
L
c
[
[
c
L
L
r ~~
L
r-
L
\.
_;
-,
_,
TABLE L-1.
CALCULATION OF NON-NATIVE LABOR FORCE
Assumed Labor Total Labor
Force Participation Force Participation
Rates for Non-Natives for Non-Natives*
Male Female Male Female --
0 .-14 0 0 0 0
15 -19 .25 .25 20 16
20 -24 1 .9 88 57
25 -29 1 .9 82 47
30 -44 1 .8 142 51
45 -64 1 .8 90 38
64 + .5 0 1 4· ........... 1
TOTAL 636
*Calculated by multiplying labor force participation .. rate by
population for group (see Table 26).
636 Non-Natives are in labor force.
L-3
J -, ' j 'l ] J 9 ~ ] ] J J J ] J J J J J J 17-l
--'
="'
_co
APPENDIX M.
NAVARIN BASIN STATE PROPERTY TAX REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS
This appendix discusses the state property tax revenue assumptions
used in developing the MAP· model impact projections. Table M-1
shows ·the assumed construction costs, completion dates, and
depreciation periods associated with each case.
State property tax revenues were assumed to be 3 percent of tot a 1
installed cost, depreciated in a straight-line fashion over the
production period beginning in 1994. No depreciation was assumed
for the shore base.
The following formula was used to calculate taxable value. in nominal
do 11 ars:
(
shore base~ (other assets) ( value = cost in + cost in 1
1981 dollars 1981 dollars
year -1994 )
depreciation period
x (1.07S)(Year-1981)
The resulting property tax receipts are shown in Table M-2.
M-1
TABLE M-1. ASSUMPTIONS USED IN CALCULATING SALE 83
(NAVARIN BASIN) STATE PROPERTY TAX REVENUES
-costa · Last Yearc Depreci ation·c-
(mi 11 ions Completionc of Period
Facility 1981 $) Date Production (years)
...................................................... ' ....
Shore-Base
.6 Bbbl case 10 1986
1.2 Bbbl case 10 1986
2.4 Bbb1 c~se 10 1986
A1eutians·Transportation Terminal
~ 6 Bbb1 case 200 1994 2015 21
-1 • 2 Bbb 1 case 200 1994 2018 24
2.4 Bbbl case 200 1994 2020 26
Pipelines· (3 miles; oil and sas}
1.2Bbb1case 12.6 1994 2018 24
2.4 Bbbl case 16.2 1994 2020 26
St;, Matthew/St. Paul· Oil· Terminal
1.2 Bbb1 case 470 1994 2018 24
2.4 Bbbl case 650 1994 2020 26
St. Matthew/St~ Paul LNG Terminal
1. 2-Bbb 1 case 2698b 1994 2018 24
2.4 Bbbi case --~. h ,I""'._R AI"\ I"'\ I"\. ....... JCSILI-.., ~~~~ LULU LO
aprovided by Alaska OCS Office.
bA1aska OCS Office figures in 1982 dollars deflated by 7.5 percent.
csased on manpower scenarios.
M-2
l
L
[
r:
L
[';
['
[
r··
I-
I
b
[
L
c
C' "
L:
j
['
r ~-
L
L
[
,
--, 1986
--' 1987
19.88
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
' 1995
1996 _,
1997
-~
-1998
-1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
.....,
2004 .=J 2005
2006
2007
.J 2008 ~· 2009
~
d 2010
2011
::-:-J. 2012
-2013 ~
=:1 2014
20.15
2016
2017
2018
2.019
2020
TABLE M-2. ASSUMED STATE OIL AND GAS PROPERTY TAXES
RESULTING FROM OCS SALE 83 (NAVARIN BASIN)
(Millions of Nominal Dollars)
.6 Bbbl 1.2 Bbbl
·Case·· ·Case··
.287 .287
~309 .309
.332 .332
.357 .357
.383 .383
.412 .412
.443 .443
A76 .476
10.754 173.610
1L036 178.877
1 L300 183~958
11.542 188.795
11.756 193.323
11.938 .197.468
12.080 201.147
12.177 204.267
12.221 206.724
12.202 208.401
12.112 209.166
11.940 208.873
11.674 207.360
11.301 204.446
10.806 199.927
10.173 193.581
9.385 185~158
8o421 174.384
7.260 160.951
5.878 144.522
4.247 124.724
2.338 101.144
2.514 73.324
2. 702 40.763
2.905 2.905
3.123 3.123
3.357 3.357
M-3
2.4 Bbbl
··Case··
.287
.309
.332
.357
.383
.412
.443
.476
240.175
248.279
256.247
264.014
271.305
278.635
285.307
291.412
296.828
301.418
305.026
307.480
308.586
308.129
305.867
301.533
294.828
285.421
272.945
256.991
237.110
212.801
183.511
148.632
107.488
59.336
3.357