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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA866>\ ·~···· '~· ., .:~,: .... ·:· ;~~ .. t . ' . .\.~ ,. .· -- ·."~. lf!r. \1. "'' • ~·-· ~-"" ... ·-------·--·-··~···--~·---·---' .. ·····----......•.. ._ .. ,.,,, -· ............ " ..... , . ' ' • . . JIAR.Ua£JASCO SUS~A .JOINT VEN7VR~ MEMORANDUM LOCATION --~Anuu&Ch~o~r~a~g~----------------------------.DATE _..t.A4pnr~iL..L..J _.t_2.:~9..,.,--..~.l..;:~Qu8:~..3~----- TO M • • • eet1ng PartlClpants NUMBER ----------------~~------- FROM G. Volland .............. -· .. ; -; .. SUCJECT Susj tna Hydroelectxi c Pra.ject ·· · · -·· ... Minutes of OMB-APA lDeeting, · April 28 •-1983 . .... .,, .. The subject meeting was convened at 8:30 a.m. at the nepartment of Strategic Planning Office in Juneau. Attending were the. foll<>wing: Division of Strategic Planning . Power Authority State Legislature Institute of Social and Economic Research Harza-E,basco Gordon Harrison George Matz Thomas Chester Robert Hahn Steven Rieger Sterling Gallagher Thomas Singer Kurt Dzinich Scott Goldsmith Hen~y Ch~!l William Hutchinson George Volland ; . -. The purpose of the meeting was t~ discuss the use of the SAGE model to project alternative fiscal scenarios under which state appropriations available for Susitna could be determined, the relationship between the SAGE output and input to the MAP model was also discussed. The following points were covered: I. Gordon Harrison described the major components of the state budget, indicated the FY83 levels of these components and suggested possible values for the components under the following three fiscal scenarios: 1. low Susitna priority 2. medium Susitna priority 3. high Susitna priority 2. William Hutchinson ex~l.ained the six petroleum price fo1~casts and corresponding DOR revenue forecasts that Harza-Ebasco are using ln the current studies. The revenue forecast6 and their use in fiscal planning were discussed. The need to consider short and long term fiscal scenarios was considered. The relationship between the mean, median and mode in the DOR forecasts was evaluated. 3. Thomas Chester described the SAGE model and a typical output. Discussion centered on the assumptions to be used in the future model runs. The following assumptions were established for the three fiscal scenarios: • .• ,....----------·~,__._ • ............,_ ... ~ ... .._ __ ,_._.. .. ~ .. ~·-··-~--;;---"'---··_..·-·--·~ ... -~--._.._,-,.~.,..-·~ -··~· .-····-. ,. :· t . HARZA·EBASCO SUSI~A ~INT VEN-~RE MEMORANDUM -··--;;;""·-:;---;l.-...,.,...,..-.,. • ..:...-;;._..-·~;------·-·-:--;-J·--..-··· .. ~--·,-. .. _.__..,;.-1-:·r------ . ' ~~ ; ·:. ~...... .. . .. ... "' ' . "',. ._,. • • I ~ "':, • .. ,. _..., • ~ .t .. ·-.,. ~ .· ·. ': .. ": .. .. . : .. ~ . . .. ~ .. " .. ·: . .. . ' . . ~. ... ~ • '... i ... . ~ • ~ .. " ... .. ~ . . LOCATION --~An==c~h~o~r~a~g=e---------------------------~ATE April 29, 1983 ~ . . -.-" .... · .. . '.... " . .. .., .. TO Meeting Participants NUMBER -------------_· : •"'; ·-... J ••• ~ G. Volland FROM •• .. .:· * .. ~ .. _-.. . ;; .. : -.... " ·., .· . SUBJECT Susitna Hydroelectric Project· ·· .. · · ·;' ·' ··Page· ..... . . ',:. _... ... . . . -··.. . Minutes of OHB-APA meeting, April ~8, 1983 "' ~~-. ' -. .. . . . . . : -__ · .. . . . Buiget Item Reverrue Sources Permanent Fund • Personal lncare · Tax Petroleun Taxes Revenue Uses . · Middle (low Susitna P,I"iority) (liEdiun Susitna priority) 00 chqe 00 change . -·~ repeal di vi.dea:i arrl place 1/2 Penn.. Ft..t.n:i earnings in Gen. F\o:I · reinstate at 1/2 previ.o1.15 level new taxes at 4% of current petroleum reverue .:_ .. ... ... ... ... ~ "" . .... .... . ..... •, " .... Maximize · · ..... : .... tescret ionary · Fu:rx!s ·. ... .. . . • .< . . . . . ~ (high Susit:na priority) -·. . ' repeal divi.derd and inflation proofi~ ard place all Perm. Fun:i earn:i~ in Gen. Ftn:l reinstate ·at t:eevious level new taxes at 8% of current petroleum reverJ.Je Operating Btd.get 2% annual real cons taa: real per capita 2% anrual real. de::rease Capital Buiget Supplemmt als Debt Service Gen. Fur:d to Perm. Furrl per capita . liX:rease --------.$200 million real at'li'I.lal:------- $3CX1 taillion real a.nrual $200 million real anrual $100 million real anrual $100 million real anrua1------- ~------payoff e:d.sting ard oo new bon:l.Q------ -----o9100 million r:aninal annual for four year~--- ...... ~: < .. -.· .... -· . ' ..... ~·" . HARZA. EUSCO SUS/TNA ~INT VENTURE. ,-· .. • • •• -_:C . . .. ·-.. •. •• \ ~ -t~ ... ... . . .-:: ... MEMORANDUM . -; .. ·. .. LOCATION Oo*.TE -April 29, l9S3 TO M . • • eettng Part'C'pants -. NUMBER ~ :: . .. . .. . ~ . .. . ~. FROM _____ G~.~v~o~l~l~aun~dL-----------~---------------· .. ··~-~~~ ·._. . -... ':"'" .. . , .... -. ·. . ..... " ... ~ . ~ ' . -... ~. SUB~ECT ___ s~i~~s~i~tJn~a~H~y~d~rgoe~J~e~c~t~r~i~c~·p~r~o~j~e~c~t~-------~age. ·0 · · :··. ·. _-·. : 4. Minutes of OMB-APA meeting, April 28., '1983 : . ':"," .. ... -.. \. ·.··.... . .. .. _ ......... . · . . . . . ' .. ~ . ' .... In addition, the SAGE program will be modified to output the possible level of G .. O. debt in each year based on. the 5% rule • .the debt service on that debt and the effect of the additional debt' service on cash flow. The meeting was adjourned for two hours -so the SAGE model could be run using the .above assumptions.· :·· .. -.... .,.. .. . .. ! . ·. -. . ... ~ ·:. .. .·! -.... :... ~ The meeting was re-convened to discuss the results of the SAGE runs. Minor modifications and improvements were noted. Future arrangements for running the model were discussed. The SAGE. runs for the six petroleum price forecasts .and three fiscal scenarios will be run in Juneau and sent to the Power Authority during the week of May 2, 198~. The Po~er Authority will investigate establishing an account for the state computer in Anchorage so that output can be received directly. "' - 5~ The fiscal assumptions to be used in the MAP model ~ere dis- cussed. In order to ensure consistency between assumptions used in project financial analyses and economic projections and because the economic projections must reflect a balanced state budget, it was agreed that the MAP model would implement revenue enhancement and expenditure decrement assumptions in the following order as necessary: a. Utilize all existing general fund revenue sources, leaving state operating budget spending constant per capita in real dollars. b. If current general fund revenue sources fail to provide enough funds to leave operating expenditures at the constant real per capita level, increment general fund revenues using as much a.s necessary of dividends earnings from the permanent fund .. c. If the above revenue sources will. not provide enough funding for-operating expenditures at a constant real per capita level, institute a personal income tax at the rate previously in effect. d. If the above revenue sources cannot support operating expenditures at a constant real per capita level, decrement operating expenditures to the extent necessary. If the financing plan eventually developed from Susitna utilizes assumptions materially different from those above, the MAP model ·will be adjusted as necessary to reflect the financing assumptions. The meeting was adjourned at 4:30 p.m. •.· .· .... .. · Jj . . ~· IZ.. 8 -- T -C ;•."t.. ·- --.-.....;;..-. 30 - -.. ;O.J ..Y J 6 ~-=:::::::::: J ' l!/Pt:.~tJ' ~'OG(;.'T G(l.O~ s I. D~~ Glf-o..W t, /. ,;re./70 ., .. _, l - .. ,, I"L 62. ;ter ~C() AI 0 l'f &.c.-i.J,., 1 r ~Tf)Jt ?2crU??1-t.Al> /AJ 198B -:PI I/ I 'P~DS /?t£Ps-n. ~ 1NrLtl(770~ P.tt.ooFI.rJG A/oT'" ~61?ltt..6r-;i) Ot~~j~r,rJG ~l>C.~"I 6-if;>...ur /.4.J" F£11. Dt1'1m (n~~tt-) CA;'/Intl.-~bCc:-:-G~taw~ W1rH I 111 Ft-J<n"'l o i/ ... ~· .. - ~ I~ t Jf'/70 s , t I ~} ./ ~ .. \f~J IZ. I J" ;.. .. .. ...... /~ 1988 .. . .. .. . ; 0 • • • • • c» 0 • 0 0 0 , 't 0 TIME : 1.6:12 -----·· -·-··----------OFFn~~~F 0 ~11~l~~~~RHOR ----·---------·-···--··-·---·------------------ DFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD DUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG .•. SHERtlAH ClARK'"'-REFEREtlce-cA·se··4183·-- PREPARED BY THOMAS P.· CHESTER ··-·--·--·-·--- UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS ·----- REVEHUE SOURCES ... ....._ _____ -· FY86 FYaa ---·---··-FYll9 FY90 FY91 OIL • GAS -OTHER ·-P.F." TO G:F. IHVESTMEHT GF FORWARD 3,679 4,087 ~.436 4,155 291 30 9 .• __ 327. 347 DO DO 00 00 78 84 90 97 2, 391 :~.996 3,208 3,496 3,795 ____ 231 _____ ---24 5----__ 25 9 _______ ~75 --- 00 00 00 00 109 84 71 i'Z 274 673 1.2~5 1,780 _ _l9..!~l 2, 776 3,326 3, 978. 6 ~ lt39. .7, 257 _______ a, l8l _____ a.s7a ------3,611 ____ , __ , 4,210 ____ 5,073 5,924 ___ _ REVENUE USES --OPERA liNG CAf'ITAl ·------r;895----··z·;o66 i';Jn 2'757o z,765 2,993 ___ 3:z3a _____ :s,soi 576 209 222 235 250 265 281 297 LOAHS SUPPLEMIOT~~R -HCIJ lEGl S. DEDT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. 168 314 333 353 375 397 ~21 446 20 104 111 111 ___ 125 _..,: ____ 132 ·~-·----140~·-· 48----..--· DO·----·~----.00 ----·--· oo·· ~ DO-00 00 00 00 179 163 163 155 143 137 122 'i8 __ J.QT_~~--- 100 100 100 100 00 00 00 00 ----___ 2 1 933 __ , __ .__.2,,_96 ~. --·--··3 I 2 92 ----·-3 I 533, ____ ,3 166 3 ~ 1 930 ·-----~ t Z0 3 ..... ---.~ • 'i95·----- l AVAilABLE CAS·H 673 1,245 1,78D z,J91 2,776 VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 00 00 --·-------··-- • .od!'r.l -··-·~··-···-· ··-··--·····--·~ -------- 3,326 00 J, 97~ 00 4,083 00 .. ... --------.. ·-~- Q 0 • 0 • . • • • 0 ·0 0 0 0 • • • • • • 0 0 DATE : 8/26/Al TIME = 16112 ~ (J·vJ) •. "····-·····----·---------·--·-·-·-·-·-------STATE Of ALASKA . ·---------·-··-·--·-·----···--·-····-·---·---··-OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD DUDGET DIVISICH OF STRATEGIC PLANHIHG ··---SHERMAH" CLARK·.:. 'REFEREHCE CA~E '4ta3··--·---------·--·-··--------·---·------··-·-·· -·· .. ------····-·-. ~-·· .. -··--. ---....... --- PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER ---------------------------------------------------------------------- UHRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS ---------··-·-·------· --·-·-··--····--------- • REVENUE SOURCES • • ------------·------FY92 OIL & GAS OTHER ---.. p. F. 'TO-G: F. INVESTMENT GF FORWARD _,_IQH.!-_ __ _ ~.325 ~.~45 ~.513 ~.288 4,090 ~.301 4,395 ____ ..:368 390 413 438 ______ :HS ____ .• 492: .••. --___ 522 ··-- 0 a· • 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 D D US 114 123 133 HS 157 170 4,083 4,057 3,789 3,220 1,995 91 -2,138 ... a •. a~~-----...... 9._ooz _____ a,339 ___ a,o8l __ 6,69.6 s~ou __ -·-----2.9'•9 ·-· • REVENUE USES • • •• • --oPERATING 3·;ao6 4-;150 ----lt-;5i1 ~-~ 934 s;3sn s·;a9s -----6:437 CAPITAL 315 334 35/f 376 39.8 422 lt47 LOAHS 473 502 532 564 5'17 633 671 SUPPLEMtOTHER 157 167 177 188 199 Zll .... --·-··-·223 ··-···-------• --·Hew lEGis.-· oo-------oo" ____ oo· oo oo ____ oo oo oo DEBT SERVICE 71 63 38 :;, 23 2,, 17 l~ G.F. TO P.F. 00 OD 00 00 00 00 OD __ T_O_T!:_l___ 4..! .. M.~------5.!.21~.-----5.,6t? 6 1.035 6,.60:5 7,,130 _____ 7 .. 795. __ • AVAILABLE CAS~ 4,057 3,789 3,220 1,995 91 VOTED C.4PUAL 01! 00 DO 00 o:o • AVERAGE''GROWTII"RATE-lH"'CPI :-6 :oo~-----AVERAGE-POPULA 'ndH-GROWTH •. RAte:r:·o5x AVERAGE RATE OF RETURH: PERMAHEHT FUHDz 10.00~ GENERAL FUND BALANCE: 9.001 AVERAGE GROWTIIIDECi.IHE: LOAHSz 6.00X DEBT SERVICE! -17.40X -2,138 00 ---·-··----·------·-------· AVG. HCHIHAl GROI:JTII RATE OR IHFLAHOH •..• PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMEHr' -PER. CAPITA GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE OPERATING DUDGET 0.00 6.00 _______ 2.00 ________ 1 •• 0~ ----------------- OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTH RATE ____ 9 .ll ______ _ "OrER SUPPLHIEHTALS o:oo 6~00 z:oo 1.05 4 j OTIIER SUPPt.EMEHTALS 0.00 6.00 0.00 o.oo CAPITAL BUDGET O.DD 6.00 IJ.OO 0.00 0.00 .6. 00 6,00 -:: -~~P_IT AL_S~!-~ EHEHTAI.S::.__ _____ ..::O:...:.• ~-o _____ _J_._o,o ________ p_._O 9 O..LO o ___ _ _o. oo _______________ _ Ql • •. ---. ..,.. • .. Q ,, ... ;i" ,, ,• • • • • • 0 Q, • • 0 0 • • • '\o,;J ( .~ 0 0 0 :; .... DATE = 1'1126143 TIME U•12 I~ "' ..... --.·1 0 = 0 . . . .!··!·,;: '· l .. t··· .. STATE OF ALASKA .. ·'·i't '· OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR .. • J ·;·. ~~! Q OFFICE OF NMIAGEMENT AND DUDGET 0 . :. ; •" DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING ::·-~;.·;~· ... . ·:··f.~l:•' ·--sHERMAH-ClARK~-REFEREHCE-CAsE-·~;a3 , ... .r.t.~, 0 0 ... ~ ... ~,. t:~\· . PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER :'jl:•: I ~ .. ~· !·~-:..~· ....... ·' ' ...... ,. UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANAL YSISi • .. .. · ·.,.:·t: 0 . ·' .;~····· ...... ' ~ ~.:; .. ALr-coMrbNEHfs--i~oEFLATED 193~ DoLLARs "'· • J l ........ t ... ~ .:;.! 0 0 ·,:~ .. ~~;~: REVENUE SOURCES "•·-: ....... ;1\""• i;. ... ~,.!.i,'- FY34 FYa.5 t=ra·6 FYll7 FY33 FY3,9 FY90 FY9l ...... · ···: ;-·~·· . · .. ;~: ~l· ~ 0 0 : ... ,.,.-Oil ' GAS 2.996 3,055 3,141 3,217 2.9~2 3,033 3,157 2,790 ;:~·~ !'l::~ OTHER 231 233 232 233 232 233 232 32 . ~.· ... ~~r..t --p :F·;· TO-G:·F. 00 00 DO 00 00 DO DO 00 . .• . ..;~"'~· ·. 0 INVESTMENT 109 !0 64 Cll 62 63 64 65 0 . "''' GF FORWARD 2H 6H l' 119 1.509 1,912 2,094 2,367 2,670 ... "'• ... ": ~ · ... li·. ___ T .QJ.~.I:.. 3 6)J ~ ••• Q OJ. h558 s ... 021 5,149 ~.474 5,322 'i .. 1 59 ,·:r-( 0 0 .. ':···:~-~~: REVENUE USES . !,, ...... 2;i21 2;178 2.211 -..... , --oPERATING r;a9s 1,967 2,261 2,304 2.,352 •. ~, J 0 CAPITAL 576· 199 200 199 199 199 U9 199 G •. .,.4 .. •,if 1 LOANS 168 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 ' .... SUPPLEMIOTHER 20 99 .100 99 99 99 99 99 .. --HE!.I"LEGIS:-... DO 00 00 00 DO DO DO DO 0 DEDT SERVICE 179 160 146 131 118 103 !6 65 0 G.F. TO P.F. 100 95 !9 84 00 00 00 00 ___ TQ!A_!.__ 2 ·-2.~~ -?.dl2.3 2,_~55 2,_99L 2.t.929 2 • .965 2 •. 991 ___ 3,01! I 0 AVAILABLE CASH 673 1,1!6 1,600 2, 026 2.219 2,509 2,331 2.741 e VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 DO DO oa 00 DO 00 0 ... 0 0 ;··.· .. . ... -----·---· ----·-o··--·------· ___ ... ___ ·-·-------....... . - v u .. 0 0 0 .. .. \: :, . DATE : Al'2618l ., .. 0 TIME = 117.112 0 ; --.' t'; (,. . t•; --!I· ---·--· STATE .OF ALASKA :;;.: .... OFFICE OF THE GOVERHOR ___ ""{' .·~~ ·.• 0 OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD 8UDGET 0 ·I"~· DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG .(; rn ·V:. ---· SHERHAH-CCARIC-=-REFEREHCE-CAS~ -4.t43 ~ .. ~~~ • PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER 0 ·1~~ ~\~ UNRESTRICTED GEHERAL FUHD ANAlYSIS 0 ;')·n~" • ·' . ?r~ ~J.' "~ ALL COMPONENTS !~DEFLATED 1984 DOLLARS •,!'_.. -~~~ 0 o. ;.(rl.l REVENUE SOURCES ::~·~ FY92 FYifl FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 .·~~ .. ' ... • OIL l GAS 2,739 2,656 2,544 2,28G 2,052 2, 0.35 1,962 0 i·~~-~.;. !fl OTHER 233 233 232 232 2.33 232_ 233 5~ --r.F. ··ro o:·~. DO 00 00 00 00 00 00 • IHVESTMEHT 66 68 69 71 72 74 76 0 i~Vt GF FORWARD 2,586 2,424 2,136 1, 712 1 ,:ou 43 -954 -'.:r~ TOTAL 5 6_2.6 , ,,382 lt,.,?83 h29.7 3 .. ;35.9 -2 ... 386. 31 \'•!\.-:?~ 0 'lf • REVENUE USES -.i.\~'1< ·Jr r.: --· ·--:.: .. ,':)! --OPERATHIG 2-; 41 ii----2-;t.a o 2-;546 2,623 2,:703 2. 790 2,374 ;:·~. 0 CAPITAL 1?9 199 199 199 199 199 199 0 ··~·-J LOANS 299 299 299 299 1299 299 299 ··1" SUPPLEMIOTHER 99 99 99 99 Cj 9. 99 99 •ij. •• , .· r:·~ --HEif LEGis·:--· DO DO 00 00 DO 00 DO 00 rt9 0 DEBT SERVICE 44 37 21 12 10 D8 06 0 s• .. ~-··~~ G. F. TO P.F. 00 DO 00 00 DO DO DO .. ,~r.,.. . TOTAL 3 Q~~ ~J.l7 ~~.1~7. 3_,_236 3J;3.H 3 ... 39& 3.430 ~t;:"i ···I '· ~ ··l 0 AV'.!LABLE CASH 2,570 2,264 1,315 1,061 45 -1,012 -2,!63 c -l~ •;oTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 00 00 DO 00 ~ -~ .~. :.:1 -AVERAG~GROWTH-RAT E-lH-CP t=----6-:-o OX AVERA-CiE-POP'UlAfiOff(;jfowtWRAtE:-i-:os:x ~;:i 0 AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMAHEHT FUHD: 10.00?. GENERAL FUND BALANCE: 9. 010% G . ~. AVERAGE GROWTHJDECLINE: LOANS: 6.00!( DEBT SERVICEz -17.40!( !'":'" .,. ... ,t: AVG:-HoMIHA[--OR-INFlATIOH PERCErHAGE-ADJlisti1EiiT-PERCAPIT~ovERALi-A'vERAGE ~~--~ c GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE USEn TO REA'. BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE 0 ,..;.(~-: ··~~ .. OPERATING BUDGET o.oo 6.:.00,. z ... oo 1 .• 05 9.13 . ~r;·~ -DPER-SUPP[EMEHTA[ o:oo 6. Oit 2.00 1.05 0.00 ···~ ·';.:. .. 0 OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS o.oo 6 • !VIl o.oo o.oo 6.00 Q ~;:~ CAPITAL BUDGET o.oo 6.0'il o.oo o.oo 6.0D CAPITAL SUPPLEMEHTALS o.oo 6. DO 0,00 O...JlO 0.....0. ·~ '' ~!c 0 0 ~·~ ..... ,..)' ~·~,~. s~~t-~ "·-CD tf; C), 0 • l-:'J · ·itv.-: 0 0 C-l TIME : l6tll9 ---·STATE OF ALASKA ., -----·-----------------------..:.--~-------------OFFICE OF TilE GOVERHDR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD DUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ---,DTH-PERCEHTILE-FORECAST-, DE~T:-bF''REv:-;-:iUHE-Al PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER REVENUE SOURCES FY34 OIL & GAS 2,971t OTUER --------p;f; To'G7i=. 231 00 . HIVESTMEHT 109 GF FORWARD 274 __ J_Oj~L, ____ _ ·-· ___ 3,_58J REVENUE USES --oPERATIRI'i,------,-, 1,895 CAPITAL LOAIIS 576 168 SUPPLEM/OTH.=E~R ______ _ --HetrLEGIS. 20 DEBT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. 00 179 100 FYAS 3,22!.0 245 00 84 651 ~.l261 :r;o&6 209 314 104 00 168 100 TOT~~ 2~.938 ____ ,,2,964. AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL 651 co 1,297 00 UNRESTRICTED GEHERAL FUHD AHALYSIS All COMPOHEHTS IH~OMIHAL DOllARS FYS6 FY-87 FY38 3,522 3,755 3,675 259 275 291 DO 00 00 71 72 78 1,297 1,858 2,428 5.t.l5D SJ 962 6Jic73 2, 36i 2.s1o 2,765 222 235 250 333 353 375 111 117 125 00 00 00 163 155 148 100 100 00 3,,292 3,533 3,663 1~a5a 2,428 2,809 00 00 00 F'i'89 FY9D FY9l 3,998 4,422 lj,298 309 27 47 00 00 00 84 90 97 2,809 3,271 3,908 .• 201 a .. 111 ,651 2. 998 3,238 3,503 265 231 297 397 421 446 32 ]40 48 00 00 00 137 122 98 00 00 00 3 •. 930 _____ 4 .. 203 ~.495 3,271 3,908 4,156 00 00 00 • 0 0 8 0 0 c • 0 0 0 0 0 0 G I I ~.;: ___ ·.I ~lillLll 0 • 0 • • • • • 0 DATE = Al'2ld33 TIME = 16 & 09 STATE OF hlASKA ·---· OFFICE 0~ THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD DUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING ---, OTH -PERCEHTlt.:~FoltEClS y-;-DEP'r:-oF 'Rev:-;JUHE-33 PREPARED n~ THOMAS P. CHESTER REVENUE SOURCES OIL l GAS OTHER FY92 4,120 363 00 --p: F ,"''fo G: F-. ----- INVESTMENT GF FORWARD lOS 4,156 _ _.!QI..~.~--------' ~..Ll~.o REVENUE USES FY9l ~.279 •390 00 114 3,926 a .•• u.o UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS FY91t FY95 ¥i96 lt.275 3,992 3, 711 4ll to lA .465 DO DO 00 123 ll~ 145 lo492 2,635 1,164 a ,_Jo.4 7_,21!9 5,486 --·----. --------- FY97 FY9! 3,335 3,815 ____ ,492. _____ 522------------ 00 00 157 170 -1.119 -3,814 ____ 3.365 693 -· OPERATIHG -;ao6 r;Eo 4,517 4,-934 ____ 5,388 5,395 6,437 0 CAPITAL 315 334 354 376 393 422 447 LOAHS 473 502 532 564 597 633 671 SUPPLEM/OTHER 157 167 177 188 __199 _____ 211 223----- 0 .- 0 ---- --HelrLEGls:-00 DO DO ' 00 00 00 00 .a DEDi' SERVICE 71 63 38 23 21 17 14 '-' G.F. TO P.F. 00 00 00 00 DO DO DO , _____ JQJ.g____ 4_.A.~.L ____ 5,217 ____ 5.,U9, _____ 6,085 6,.605 7,180 _____ 7.795 ---- 0 . '< AVAILABLE CASH 3,926 3.492 2,6&5 1,164 -1.119 VOTED CAPITAl OlJ 00 00 ~ 00 DO -3,314 00 . "'AVERAGE-GROWTJrRATE-IH"CPir-&·:oox~ AVERAGE' POPULi\TIOH-GROWTti RATE: l.Osii.··------ 0, AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMANENT FUND: lD.OOX GEHER~L FUHO nALAHCEs 9.00~ AVERAGE GROWTII/DECLIHE• lOANSz 6.00% DEnT SERVICE& -1:l.4Q:C -7,101 00 -··--------··----·-------- •••• ------·· ••• ·-·---·-··-·-AVG:·HOMIHAC. OR IHFLATIOH ---~-i'*ERCENTAGE-ADJUSTMEHT-PER-·cAPirA --OVERAll"AVERAGE .. ------··--·- 0 0 0 0 0 G n GROWTII RATE GROWTII RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTII RATE Q 0 0 OPERATING BUDGET DPER SUPPLF.tiEIITALS ·---- OTIIER SUPPLEI'IEHTALS CAPITAL BUDGET CAPITAL SUPPLEMEHTAtS -.. ---~ --·-- o.oo .... _ .. ___ 6.oo ... ___ 2.oo ________ l .. os ___ .. ___ CJ.l3. ___ ------------- o.oo 6,00 2.00 1.05 o.oo o.oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo 6.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo 6.00 o .Q..o _____ ~. o:..::o'-·-------'o. oo o..._o_o o .• o_o __________ _ ()_ ---·-o--·--------· ..... --·-··------·--o 0 0 .. .. ;· .·" ., .. : .. ..... '• 0 • 0 0 Q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DATE : 3if26.1A3 TU1E : 16& 09 ·--·--·-·-··---·----------------__ STATE OF AlASKA .. ----- REVENUE SOURCES OIL & GAS OTHER P.F. ro·a.F. rHVESTMEHT GF FORWABD ____ I!H~~- REVENUE USES ---'OPERATING CAPITAL LOANS SUPPLEM.IOTtiER --HEW lEGis:··. DEDT SERVICE G. F. TO P.F. .. --· IP.! !.~ -· AVAilADLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL ______ ,. ___ OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG FY84 FY35 FY36 FYA7 FYaA 2,974 3,124 3,165 3,143 2,934 231 _____ 233, 232 233 23 00 00 00 00 00 10 9 • 80 •64 61 62 274 620 1,165 1,575 1,942 3t.~s_9 ____ ~_,_os8 ~.627 5,053 5Al76 1-; 8 9 5-. ---··r; 9 6 7----2-;i 21 2;178 2,211 576 199 200 199 199 168 299 299 299 299 20 99 100 .99 99 oo---·oo ____ oo 00 DO 179 l61l 146 131 1lll 100 95 89 M 00 2 •. 9~~-----2~823 2 .• 9~8-2 '.9 9.'t z. 929 651 1,235 1,669 & z,o5a 2,246 00 00 00 00 DO 0 --------·------- -FYA9 FY90 FY9l 3,016 3,147 2/,ll86 233 .232-----232 00 00 00 63 64 65 2,119 2,328 2;,624 •. 432-5, 71 s.,4o3 2,261 2,304 2;,352 199 199 199 299 .299 299 99. 99 99 00 00 00 103 86 65 00 DO 00 2,.965 2 •. 991 3.,01 2,467 2,741 z,79o 00 00 00 ·----...... ·-·--·-·-------·----~------------------------ a· --• • • • • 0 • • 0 0 • • • 0 liME : 16107 -·------··------·---- 0 ·-OFFn~TgFo~ll~l~~~~RNOR-·---------·····-··-·-···-· -· •.... OFFICE OF MAHAGEMfHT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STR~TEGIC PLAHHIHG . ... 70TH PERCEHTllE" FORECAsr;·DEPr;· OF REV"."";'':JUttE-al ----··----·· ---------·-. -. -·---.. • PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CIIESTER ·-----,.--·---····-·--·---·--· . ---------- • UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANAlYSIS • REVENUE SOURCES FY92 ____ fY93. FY9s FY96 fY97-----~v9a • Oil & GAS 2,610 2,557 2,410 2,123 1,362 .!H5 1,703 OTHER ______ 2 0 l 0 l ______ ~.2 03 03,___ 232. ____ 232 _____ 233 _____ 232. ______ :;;33.,_. ·-• -P • F • T 0 G : F: 0 o •;) o o 0 0 o 0 o INVESTMENT 66 68 69 71 72 74 7G GF FORWARD 2,632 2,346 1,968 1,428 584 -529 -1~703 ___ J.9J~L !!.~~42 ___ .. __ s_,294 _____ ~,6al 3.,355 2,752 ,s9:L. ____ 3o9-- .. REVENUE USES • • • • 0 ·--oPERATIHG 2;ttlo--·-· ... 2;4!0-----2~546----.. 2·;623 2~703 2,790 ~---.. ---2,!7~ CAPITAL 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 -···-· .. -·--·----- LOAHS 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 SUPPLEM.IOTHER .99 _________ 99 -·---··--c;9_, __ • ___ 99 ____ 99·---::---99 ·-------99 ·--····~---· •. -·~--·-- --HEW LEGis:·--· 00 00 DO 00 DO 00 00 00 DEBT SERVICE 4C. 37 21 :;. 12 10 oa 06 G.F. TO P.F. liD 00 00 00 00 00 00 __ J.Q!AL__ 3 .. d!~.!! 3r.ll?-----~'l6J __ . __ 3J236 3J3H 3,39a _3.ctao_ .• --------------- AVAILABLE CASH 2,436 2,086 l,.Hl 619 -561 VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 00 DO -AVERAGE' GROWTH 'RA 7E 'lH"'CP r:-b 7 0 ox--.. ---AVERAGE-POPU LA TIOH. GROWTH. RATE-: -i:05X AVERAGE RATE OF RETURH: PERMAHEHT FUND: 1D.OOX GENERAL FUHD BALAHCE: 9.00A AVERAGE GROWTHIDECLIHE: lOAHS: 6,00X DEBT SERVICE; -l7.40X -1,805 00 -3,170 00 ··-·----~------------------- AVG. HOMIHAL GROWTII RATE OR IHFlATIOH •. PERCENTAGE ~1\DJUSlMEHT-PER-CAPITA .. OVERALL. AVERAGE·-· GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTII RillE OPERATIHG BUDGET "OPER SUPPLEMEHTA[S- OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0 CAPITAL DUDGET o.oo 6.00 2.00 ________ 1.05 -----·--··· 9,13. -.. -·---.. ·-·-----·-·o.oo·· --ft.oo· 2.oo 1.05 o.oo o.oo 6.00 0.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo 6.00 •• o~_oo ________ 6 •. on _________ o.~oQ. ~ .... oo ________ o .• oo .. -·--·~ ___ -·-·-·-·-··-----CAPITAL SUPPLEMENTALS -·-" .... ----·---·----. ·---. ·--------------------·--· .. -· ..... . •• 0 .. • . . : ... r, t-·: . .... ·. ~ ; : . . • • • • 0 • • • • 0 • .. • . .• 0 0 0 • .. . . .... .. / ' ' . . . 0 DATE : A.t261U TIME : 16 &116 .. ·-··ooo--·0-·-••o·---···-·-·---·---0------ Q STATE OF ALASKA _ OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHING --so TH-P ERCEtiT I LE-FORECA5Y;-"lH:P,r.-tiF-iiEV:-;J"UiiEa3 PREPARED BY THOMAS r. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS All COMPOHEtlTS IH HDMIHAL DOllARS C-J -------------··---··-··_.,_.., _______________ .. C. REVENUE SOURCES FYA_9 _____ F~Y~90--------F-Y-9-l-------f"yas Fia6 FYa7 FYA3 3,609 3,698 3.J42 _____ 309----321-·---~41-~-- 00 00 00 M 90 97 1,527 ~.599 1,512 '-----~·530. ,115----5,300---- 3,260 3,lt50 3,355 259 275 291 00 00 00 1l 72 n 902 1,200 1,466 ~ .•• ot.93 ~ ... 9.99 5.~90 0 OIL & GAS 2,817 3,043 OTHER ...--------231 ______ 245 ___ _ --r:F·:o toG-:;:. oo oo IHVESTMEHT 109 34 GF FORWARD 274 494 TOTAL ~._i;3_? __ . __ 3,A6[>. __ _ • • •REVENUE USES --oPERA"rlHG 1;895--·-·-z-;o66 -----2'";36.1 z,s7o CAPITAL 576 209 222 1!35 LOAHS 163 314 333 353 --~~iJ~t~~~~~t!~_l~ ~~---·--_1~~------1~~ 1~~----- DEBT SERVICE 179 163 163 ' 155 G.F. TO P.F. 100 100 lDO • 100 •• _ JOTA~ 0 -•••• ··----~,.938_0 __ •• 2,_964 ____ ,3.,292 ____ 3.533 __ _ • 2,765 2,993 3,238 3,503 250 265 281 297 375 397 421 446 1~5 32 140 148 00 00 00 00 148 137 122 91! 00 DO 00 OD 3,663 3,.930 _____ .4,203 ",.4 95 • AVAilABlE CASH 494 902 1,200 ' 1,466 VOTED CAPITAL 00 DO 00 00 1,527 1,599 1.,512 804 QQ. DO DO DO •• ------------- • 0-. 00 ···---_0 ____________ ,.. __ , __ ·-· 0 ... ·-·--·--------------·---·---------·---· .. ---· ·---·-·--··-·------·----- 0 • -·------------------------- 0 ·------- .., ... ·-··. --... ,_ -----.---·---------., 0 \1 .. - • ~· .. • • • 6 .. ~ .~ (f • ... .. " • • • • • • • • 0 • .~ • • 0 0 DATE = ll/'26183 TIME = 16106 ··------~···--. STATE.OF AlASKA .... ··-··------·-... -..., .. ~ .... -......... ______ .... ___ _ ... . . . .......... -~ .... --------·-··----·------· OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND DUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEG!C PLAHHIHG ----sotH-PERCEHTilE-FORECAST;-DEPi;-oF REV~JUHE-al PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS REVEtiUE SOURCES FY92 fY'iS FY96 FY97 Oil I GAS 3,197 3,138 3,037 2,333 2,630 2,711 2,668 ' , _______ 368 ···--.. -.390 __ ._,_413 _ltllS-465 -'t92 --··-··-··522 ...• ,_ ·-·-.. ·-· --·----·---OTHER .. p. F. TO. G;F· • IHVESTMEHT 00 00 00 00 00 ()0 DO 105 114 123 133 145 157 170 GF FORWARD __ H!T!!L_ 304 -345 -1,923 -3,919 -6,599 -9.964 -13,733 , ______ _,4,.,.U.5 3,293 _____ l,.699 .. ----·=514 ___ _.;;.•~lQ35A-----6•6D.:L.--·dD,42l REVENUE USES ·---OHRA Tit~G CAPITAL 3~ao6 4'~150--4-;517 315 334 354 LOAHS 473 502 532 SUPPLEM.fOTHER -·uew LEGis:· .. DEBT SERVICE 157 1q ____ l77 DO 00 00 71 63 .l~ G.F. TO P.F. -·-_ .. l.QJ AJ 00 00 00 4 ~24 _,5 ,,21] 5.,619 AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL -348 -1,923 -3,919 QQ QQ DO 4~'934 376 5~4 .~153 DO :. 2l 00 __ 6, 035 i..6,599 DO 5, 388 ---s-: 8 95·----.. 6·; 4 J j 393 422 447 597 6ll 671 _____ 199 ZlL------223 ---- 00 00 00 21 17 14 00 00 00 ____ 6. 6os '-~ u. a _____ 7. 195 -- -9,964 00 -13,783 DO -13,2U 00 • AVERAGE 'GROWTif RATI!-'ItCcrt'-r -·6: o o~-·-· -.. --.. AVERAGEPDPULAi'ioH--GRliWTH-RATEr AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMAHEHT FUHDr 10.00~ GEHERAL FUND DALAHCfl ------·--------·---· 1.osx 9.00:( AVERAGE GROWTHIDECLIHEI lOAHSr 6.DOX DEBT SERVICEr -17.40~ AVG. HOMIHAL GROWTH RATE OR IHFLATIOH GROWTH RATE USEO PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT TO REAL BASE f'ER CAPITA GROWTII RATE OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTH ~ATE 00 orERATIHG BUDGET 0.00 6.00 _____ _ OPER SUPPLEMEHTA[~ o:oo 6:oo 2 •. 00~ ________ 1.05 9.13--------··--- 2.00 1.05 o.oo ..,. OTIIER SUPPLENEHTALS 0.00 6.00 ~ CAPITAL BUDGET 0.00 6.00 o.oo o.oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo 6.00 -:.~_A~ I_T ~!:_.SUPrL EMEHT Al.S::; _____ ._....o_._o.o _______ 6..1..0.9·~----II. .. Jl.O. o. o o ___ , ·--· a. o o ·-·------P··-1'---- 0 ·---------------------·----· -·------0 u • 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 c . ; 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • 0 . 0 0 0 • 0 DATE : 8.126183 TIME = 16106 . .. --., ... ,.. .. ·----....... ~-· '. " """''"" ..... ··--·-· .... ··-·----· STATE OF ALASKA . . • ... ·-·--·---.-. OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT hHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ----.5OTH. P ERCE~t Il E-FORECAS t-;-o~'PT-:-oF···REV:-;J'UHEa l PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GEHERAL FUND ANALYSIS ALL co'M?ifrflftirs itiriei=LATED 1984 DOLLARS REVENUE ~OURCES FY3~ -Fvi5 FYa6 FYa7 FYAA OIL l GAS 2,817 2,898 z, 929 2,924 2,682 __ OJHE~ •. -·.------P.F. TO G.F. 231 ________ 233 __ , __ 232 2.33 232 IHVEST-MEHT GF FORWARO TOTAL REVENUE USES DO 1D9 274 ~--'1.3.2 00 80 470 __ 3~ 68.2 DO ao DO 64 61 62 810 1,017 1,172 !b.037 4 .. 237 ~ .. 150 FY89 2,722 .2JJ_, 00 63 1,152 ~~171 v 0 -F'Y'90 FY91 2,632 2,244 232 232 00 00 64 65 1.138 1, 015 4,067 ,...558 -----------------------OPERATING ""1~895·--·-.. --1;967' 2;1zf 2,178 2,211 2,261 2,304 2,352 CAPITAL 576 199 200 199 199 199 199 199 LOANS 168 299 299 • 299 299 299 299 299 ---HSUEIPJ~LlEEMG/ISOT •• HER ___ •. _____ 2D _______ 99. ______ 100 ________ 99 _____ 99 .99 -----.. •• 99 -· 99----- 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 DEBT SERVICE 179 160 146 ;, 131 llll 103 86 65 G.F. TO P.F. 100 95 89 84 DO 00 00 00 ___ I.QJA.L______ 2l.?3.8 .2.,.823 2,.958 z •. 99.4 Z,.929 ____ __2#965---2,99l----l,.CU---- AVA1LABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL ... ---·--· -·------- 494 00 859 00 1,079 00 1,242 00 1,221 00 1,206 00 1,076 00 540 00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0 ---------·---------· ,. •• • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • 0 • 0 • • • • • • •• • • 0 0 DATE = !/26/83 TIME = 16~06 . STATE OF. hLASKA ····:--------OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR ----·------·----------. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STR~TEGIC PL~HHING --.scmrn~tc~Htl[l:ftiRE.c"A's't-;-olfr't7'oF-REV-:-;-:iu-HE33 PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHEST~R UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS '"AiL COMPOHEHTS IN DEFi.tdED 19M DOLLARS REVENUE SOURCES OIL & GAS OTHER --r: F:-·To-a:-F. IHVESTMEHT GF FORWARD I' FY92 2,025 233 00 66 509 --~T~O!!~~--------------~ ~.3.3~ REVENUE USES FY93 1.875 233 00 68 -2oa 1,,_963 -oreuruto CAPITAL z-;4 i o-----i-;4 a o· 199 299 LOANS SUPPLEMIOTHER --HEW .. L EGI 5 ~--·-:!!-------99 00 DEBT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. TOTAL 3 44 00 0?5 199 299 99 00 37 00 ;s,_u 1 i=v9tt FY95 FY96 1,740 1,506 l.:.n? . 232 232 33 00 00 00 69 71 12 -1~0M -2,084 -3,311 953 -27.3 -1.685 2;546 2,623 2,703 199 199 199 299 2.99 299 _99 .99 99 00 ' 00 00 21 12 10 00 00 00 3.Ll6} 3., 236 3 .•. 31 FY97 FY93 1,283 1,191 232 233 00 00 74 76 -4,716 -6,154 -l.l25 -.4. 651i 2,790 2,874 199 199 299 299 .99 99 00 00 08 06 00 00 3,39t!. _3.480 _____ AVAILABLE CASH -221 -1,149 -2,209 -3,509 -4,999 -6,523 -3.134 VOTED CAPITAL 00 DO 00 00 00 00 .QQ -AVERAGE-GROI...tTH-ra,ll:"""lfrtPk i-Coo:r--·---AVERAGE.POPUl.A'ri"oi-1 -GROWtirR'ii'flfiT:o§~ AVERAGE RATE OF RETURH: PERMAHEHT FUHD: 10.00~ GEHERAL FUHD DALAHCE: 9.00~ AVERAGE GROWTH/DECLINEt LOAHSr 6.DOX DEnT SERVICE: -17.40% DO -AVG-:-tto~IIHALbR.-IHFLATIOH--PERCEHt'AGE-AOJUSTf1Etft-rej( CAPITA .. OVERALl. AVERAGE- GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE ' I • OPERA TIHG BUDGI:T ..--------0. 0 0 _____ 6. 0 0 _______ 2 ... 0 o, ________ l. 05 _____ 9 .ll _________ _ -oPER-SUPPrEMEHUl: o.'oo 6~00 2.00 1.05 0.00 • OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0,00 6.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 CAPITAL BUDGET 0.00 6,00 0,00 0.00 6.0~ "': CAPITAL SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.09 6.00 Q,QQ 0_._00 O .•. OU ________ _ • .,..,. • c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. TIME = 16104 -------· STATE OF ALASKA_. ··::-----------·----OFFICE OF TilE GOVeRNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AND DUDGET DIVISION Of STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ·-· ·-30% .REVEHUE-FORECAST'; DEPt:-o_F-'REV ;;-Jutd;-33 c-J ------------- ~ PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER • .. • .. • • • ... .~ • • • UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS . ALL coMroHEiirsTtf1ioMnHAL ooLLARs REVENUE SOIJRCES F''fa4 Fia·s FYA6 FYA7 FYA8 O!L & GAS OTHER -·r:F: to-·a-:-r. 2,666 2,774 :Z,980 3,121 231 2~5 259 275 DO 00 DO 00 ;s, 007 291 DO lHVESTMEHT 109 84 71 72 78 GF FORWARD 274 342 481 500 436 TOTAL h_2_~_o 3...t.!t~.6 3..~..7_92 3 ...... 96 .. 9 3~813 REVENUE USES --OPERATIHG CAPITAL LOAHS SUPPLEM/OTHER -·-tiEIJ LEGis:···- DEBT SERVICE G. F. TO P.F. •2,765 250 375 125 110 Ha 011 Ga9s---.. z;066 2, 361 z, s1o 576 209 222 235 166 314 333 . 353 20 104 , ____ 111 _____ 117 0 0 ·-· --·-···--0 0 ·--· I) 0 0 0 179 168 16J 155 100 100 100 100 __ !.Q!H_. _______ ?_._~3~ 2,,.?64 3_,.292 3.,53~. ___ _.... 3_,,66l AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL :S42 00 481 00 500 00 "i36 00 149 00 FY89 FY90 FY91 3,165 3,021 2.693 09 27 47 DO 00 00 84 90 97 149 -221 -985 3._708 .217. 2..15 -·--2.,998 3,2J8 3,503 265 281 297 397 421 446 lll _______ 140 ·---· ···---148 ---- 00 00 00 137 122 98 00 00 00 3,..930 4.2DJ. _____ 4,495 -221 -9~5 -2.343 00 00 00 ----~--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- ----------------------------------·--------·------· 0 0 fl • • • • • • • • • • • ... ~ DATE : A1261Al TIME :: H•Oit ----·----------·-----·-·--·· -----. STATE.OF ALASKA .. ·-------OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD ~UDGET DIVISION Of STRATEGIC PI: 'lliltiG 30~ REVENUE FORECAST,. DEPT. OF ;REV.~·· JUHE''aj--·------~-·--------· ----·-· ___ ... -. -~ . -· PREPA'RED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER ·-·-------··------------------·----------·-------------·------ UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS REVeNUE SOURCES ··-··-·-··FY94 i:r9s -_, ______ ._ .. ·------·· ·-FY92 ____ -FY93 FY96 FY97 FY9A "" OIL I GAS 2,5611 2,400 2,263 2,140 1,906 1,888 1,899 36g .390 413 ~liS 465 H2 52 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 105 114 OTHER ---·-P :F :· TO-G7F. IHVESTMEHT 123 133 145 157 170 -2,343 -4,129 -6,443 -9,262 -12.635 -16,724 -21,366 ., GF FORWARD .... ... - - - - ~ ___ '[Q!~_!., ________ _ ~94 REVENUE USES OPERA TlNG CAPITAl 3-;lio6 !15 473 LOANS SUPPLEM/OTHER ..••• HW LEGis:· .. ·'"-----157 00 DEBT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. TOTI.l ., --··-.. ----- AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAl 71 00 4.t8~~ -4,129 oo -1,225 -·r;;Tsii 334 502 167 00 63 00 s. e.21.7 -6,443 00 -3~.6.4.3 4';517 354 532 177 00 J8 00 5 e,61.~ -9,262 00 -6...550 ":.lOA.llll -1 ft....l!6 -la-1.74 t(; 934 5,388 5,395 6,437 376 ~98 422' 447 564 597 633 671 188 ____ .199 _____ 211 _____ 223 ----------- 00 00 00 uo 00 23 21 17 14 OD 00 00 00 !1 ••• 085 . ___ _..6 ... 6 os z.lao __ ...J .• 795------·---- -12',635 00 -16,7Z4 00 -21,366 00 -26,570 00 AVERAGE-CRO!JTH 'RAn;-urcr~ r-r.oo~-·---AVERAGE-POPUllltibii-GROWith~idEa 1. os·~~------ AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMANENT FUND: 10.00~ GENERAL FUND BALANCEa 9.00X ---··--··------··----.... -... -·-·· .... ·----.. ,-.. AVERAGE GROWTH/OECLIHf.l lOAHSz 6.00~ DEnT SERVICE! -17.40X -··-------·----AvG:-·HOMtHAL--OR-·IHFLATIOH _____ PERCEHT.AGE-A"fiJi.iSTMEtfr-· PER .. CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTII RATE GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL nASE GROWTII RATE GROWTH RATE OPERATING BUDGET o.oo 6.00 OPER SUPPLEHENTACS o:·oo 6~00 OTIIER SUPPL EMEHTALS o.oo 6.00 CAPITAL BUDGET o.oo 6.00 ~A~~!A~~flEMEHTALS o.og 6.00 .. -·-_, ____ .-------------- 2,,00 2.00 o.oo o.oo 0 00 1.. 05, _________ 9.13 ____ _ 1.05 a.oo o.oo o.oo 6.00 6.00 . ____ o .. oo. __ _ ..... o.o --·-------·-· -·---··-··---·--· ... 0 • .. • • • • • • 6 f) • • • • • • • • • • • • • bATE = 8.1261'33 TIME = l6101f __ ·--··--------·--·-·--·····--------·-· STATE OF ALASKA ·---· ----.-.. ------·-~-.. ··-·-·-----··--.----· OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHING -·--·30!(. REV EHUE-I=ORI:CAS T ;-DErl':-of.-REV :-;-j@e-a·j PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER --·--------- UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS REVENUE SOURCES FYU OJ.l l GAS 2,666 2,642 2,677 2,645 2,405 2,387 ~.150 _OTHER •• -·-----·---·231 ____ ,._,, __ 233, _____ ,.232 ______ .233_ _____ 232 ---·--. 233 ... ____ -. 232 P.F. TO G.,:. DO 00 DO 00 00 00 00 INVESTMENT 109 80 64. 61 62 63 64 GF FORWARD 274 326 432 42ft 349 113 -157 __ TQ.ll~ 3,,_230 _________ 3,282 3.,S01 l..36.~ _____ J ... OI't9 2.79L ___ 2,2A9 REVENUE USES FY91 1,308 -----232 00 6.5 -661 . --·-----1.445 ·-------nPERATlHt 1.895 1';967 2';12i 2,178 2,211 2,261 2,304 2,352 CAPITAL 576 199 200 199 199 199 199 199 lOMiS 163 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 ·-~~~~t~~~~~tjER·-·-----·-. ~~-----· .. -·--~~ _ ~~~ ~~-· ~~. -·-~~ ·-·----· ~~ --~~---- DEBT SERVICE 179 160 146 • lll 113 lOl M 65 G.F. TO P.F. 100 95 89 84 DO DO 00 00 TOTAL ...... -------·-2' 93~. _ ......... 2,,!23 ----··-2,958 __ • __ 2,.9t4, ____ z,nL _____ ,2, 96.5 _____ 2.9'Jl,_ .. ____ l.Dlli---- AVAILABLE CASH 342 453 449 370 119 -167 -701 -1,573 VOTED CAPITAL ~n 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 . ·-. -· ·----·---·---- -·--------·------------··---··---+ ... . -------------------·-·-."' • • • • • • • • 0 • • • • • • . 0 rl , ... • -• • • DATE = A/261'33 TIME : 1610~ -· ___ "·-··---·-·--··----·-------SlATE OF fllASKA ·---------...... __ ----· OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHO DUOGET DIVISIOH OF SiRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ---Jo~-REVEHUE "FORECAST;·-DEPT:-OF -Rev:-;-:Jui~E ·aJ·---·---·---· .. -·---·--·---··. . . -. ·•· PREPARED 8¥ THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GENERAL fUHD AHALYSIS -------------·-----·i.rCcoHrotielits .. Itf"DEFLATED-i9i4i>oLLARS, ____________ ·------· • REVEtiUE SOURCES OH l GAS OTIIER -P.F. TO G:F;-- IHVESTMEHT GF FORWARD _ _!_Q,BL REVEHUE USES Y92 1,624 233 -· DD ···--· 66 -1,434 4~.0 i=v9·l FY94 1,434 1,275 ... 233 -----· 232. 00 DO 68 69 -2,467 -3,632 _=.?.32 ____ -2, !!53 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY9A 1,13~ 956 !93 MA 232 233 _232-233 DO 00 00 no 71 72 74 76• -ft I 925 -6,339 -7,915 -9,540 -:.3 .. _/f!J -5 .. 076 -6.114 -a,Jal ---·oPERAllHG ;!;i.lb----z~·~ao -···------·-----· 2;s46 z-;·623 2,1oj 2,79o z.~H u • • • • • CAPITAL 199 199 LOAH:; 299 299 199 199 199 199 199 0 299 299 299 299 299 SUPPlEM101'HER. ______ 99 99 --HEW LEGIS; .. -oo oo _____ 99 99· _____ 99 _____ 99 ____ .99 _________ -·---- 00 00 DO 00 DO 00 •• DEBT SERVICE 44 37 G.F. TO P.F. OD DO 21 12 10 08 06 0 DO DO 00 00 00 . '• 0 • • __ lOT.~L 3, 0.~-'----~-•J.lJ _____ 3,,_16~--.-·3,.236 3 .. 31~. 3,398 ______ 3.~80 AVAilABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL -2.615 DO -3,849 00 -5.221 DO -6,719 DO -3,390 00 -AVERAGE""GRotHH-RATE-lH-CPI :-6. 00% -·-··-·· AVERAGE" POPULA TIOH <!ROWTH .• RATE-1 -r:osfi AVERAGE RATE OF P.ETURH: PERMANENT FUHOz lO.GO~ GEHERAL FUND BALAHCEr 9.00X AVERAGE GROWTH/DECllHE: LOAHS: 6.00~ DEBT SERVICE: -17.40X -10,113 00 -11 ,&63 00 -···--------··---------- -------------AVG',"""HOMIHAI:-OR""IHFLATIOH ____ PERCEHTAGE-A'DJUSTMEHT--PER .• CAPITA-OVERAll. AVERAGE·-------· GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE OPERATING BUDGET -oPER-SUPPrEMEHTALS o.oo 6.00 2.00 l .•. os 9.13- 0. OTHER SUPPLEtiEHTALS CAPITAL BUDGET . 0. 0 0 o.oo o.oo 6 ·; o o- !I,DO 6,00 2~00 1.05 o.oo 0.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo 6.00 "':. CAP_I_TA .!:_.SUPP L Ef:!_EH_T ~:.::l:.=S _____ __::;.:. 0 •.Q.D §J..QO o.oo Q.~.o o 0. 0 0. ------·· -·-·--------. 0 -··· ·-·-·-----··· ·-··--·-··-0 • • • ., ,, 0 0 • • • c 0 0 0 0 " t > ~ 0 0 0 • • .. C-...2... DAi'E : U26.t8l TIME : Ut2l -· STATE OF ALASKA ...... ---------···--·--------- ---SHERMAH"cLARk-=-REFEREHCE-CASEtt7if3 PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER OFFICE OF THE GOVERHOR OFFICE OF MAHAGENEHT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHING UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS ---------------------_.A .. L1L-..;COMPONEHTS IH NOMINAL DOLLARS . REVENUE SOURCES f''ia~ i='i'35 FYA6 FYtl7 FYaa OIL I GAS 2,996 3,208 3.496 3,795 3,899 __ OTHER .. _ _231 320 ;uL, 4U 469 P.F. TO G.F. 00 161 222 280 332 -~~vw~~n~~~ 109 83 70 70 7't 274 673 1.625 2,738 4,054 ___ 101~~ 3 •. 611 ___ ..,_~,'t45 _____ s,a32 7_, 323. a.a:so REVENUE USES FY39 FY9D FY91 4,320 4,683 4,417 498 527 59 :un 432 483 19 M 90 5.491 7,241 9,252 1D,77L 2,970 tt • .aoa --·oPERAfftfG c·a95 z";il27 z.i7tt 2,"~29 2,565 z,73o z,a94 3,on CAPITAL 576 209 222 235 250 265 281 297 lOANS 168 209 222 235 250 265 281 297 • SUPPL EMIOJJi.ER _______ 2D ·-·------1 04 ··-----·111_. _____ .117 _125 _____ 132 ··------140 ------148----"-- NEW LEGIS. 00 00 DO • DO DO 00 00 DO DEIH SERVICE 179 168 .163 155 143 137 122 93 G.F. TO P.F. 100 100 100 100 00 DO 00 00 __ lDT~L--?.r?.~l!----~,.820 .J,_o_«Jl :s .. 21.ft ____ 3.J3a 3,530 •. na 3,.916---- AVAILABLE CASH 673 1,625 z~738 ~.05~ 5,491 VOTED CAPITAL 00 ' 00 00 00 DO -·-----;-- 7,241 00 7,252 00 10,891 00 -----... ·-·-~-·-· ---------·------- • 0 • • • • • • • • • 0 Q • • 0 • • 0 • • • • • • • • ~ • • • 'v- DUE = 3126133 TIME = 16&23 ·--·---··-··-------· -------··---. STATE OF AlASKA .. ---·--·----·-_ .. ·-··------·._·-.. ---~-OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ·-·-·· SHERMAH CLARK :.:. .REFERENCE ;CASE' 4.ia3 ·-------------··--------·-----------· .... PREPARED BY THCMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GEHERAL FUND AHALYSIS ---------------------·---·--A[[coHf>oHENTSIH-HDMIHAtiiol"tARs·-·---·-··--.. ----------·-·-- REVENUE SOURCES Oil & GAS OTHER --P7F:-•toG.F. lNVESTMEHT GF FORWARD FY92 ~-603 593 5ft7 96 10,891 --~T~OTA~L ____________ ~ 6...t.ll~ REVENUE USES FY93 4,739 62ft 611 102 12.594 18,67.7 --OPERA-TING 3;277 ____ :5';5o7 CAPITAL 315 334 LOANS US 334 FYH 4,325 666 6!0 109 14,270 20 ... 553. 3.746 354 354 SUPPLEM.IOTHER 157 167. --HEW LEGIS:-.. ·------00 00-----177 00 DEBT SERVICE 71 63 G.F. TO P.F. UO 00 __ TQH.l I\~J.3J ____ ~_,_cto7 AVAILABLE CASH 12,594 VOTED CAPITAL DO 14,270 00 lA• 00 tt_, 6 7.1 15,M2 00 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY9! ~.619 ~.ttiil 4,673 1\,739 706 750 --·· 794 ---·· . !4 2 756 336 924 lt 017 117 125 134 143 15,aa2 17.102 17,933 14,762 22t082 23,256 24.459 25,555- 4:016 .... ·------· . tt,:os 4.{!22 4,954 376 393 ~22 H7 376 398 ~22 ~47 188 129 zu _____ zzJ --· 00 00 00 00 23 21 17 14 00 00 00 00 ~ A.9B. 5 .. 322 5.696 6, ou._ 17,102 17,933 1!,762 19,~67 DO 00 DO 00 011 -- -AVERAGI:-GROIJTirRA 'ttiHi:Pl-, -coa·x AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMANENT FUHO: -;.vi:R'A'GE-Pfirut:'AffoticRbi.iTHRATe:-r:os:< ·--·--·--------- AVERAGE GROWTH/DECLIHE: LOANS: 6.00~ EC.O~!l!1.l!= .• kiM.IJ .. f~~10.R_ ~EPEALED IN l9aa !.VG. HOMIHAl GROWTH RATE 10.00~ GENERAL FUHD DALAHCEI 9.00X DEDT SERVICE: -17.40~ IHCOME TAX REINSTITUTED IH 1935 TAXIHG_EFFORTt ~3.21~ . PER~!. FUHD DISTRIDUTIOHS .PROGRMI Rt:;PEI\LED! DIVIDENDS rYES :!HFLATIDH P~OOFIHG& NO ------ OR INFLATION PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVERALl AVERAGE GROWTH RATE U5ED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE ··opERA TIHG ""'BUDGE'f--------0 :-o b------,6.-.·a·o:---------:o. oil l. os· OPER SUPPLEMENTALS 0.00 6.00 0.00 1.05 0 OTHER SUPPlE~lEHTALS 0.00 6.00 o.oo 0.00 -CAPITAl BUDGET 0.00 6,~.00 0,00 _______ 0.00 7-:-il o.oo 6.00 •'CAPITACSUPPLEMEHTAL" o~·oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo -----6. oo_ _____ _ o.oo 0 • , , , • • r r ,. ,. \ . I· .. • • • 0 0 0 DATE : 8/26133 TIME : 16•23 ___.,, _ _..._________________ su:re .OF .ALASKA~ ... ------- OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD BUDGET DIVIS!OH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ,..,.. ---------~ -- 0 -sHERHAH-CLARI(-= REFEREticrcA5Eit/li3 ·PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER ------------·---·-· . UNRESTRICTED GEHERAL FUHD ANALYSIS -------------------------.Ai.LCOMPOHENTSIHDEFLATEDlCJIS4 DOLLARS:--------···-----------· • REVENUE SOURCES i=vas FYa7 FY88 FY91 • Oil l GAS 2,996 3,055 3,141 3,217. 3,117 3.259 3,333 2,965 --·OTHER . -· _______ 231. ··----304 .. ____ 375 ____ .376 _____ 37 5 -----· •. 376 _____ .375. ·---37 5 ---- P.F. TO G.F. 00 153 199 237 265 2!7 307 327 INVESTMENT 109 19 63 59 59 60 60 60 GF FORWARD 274 641 1,460 2 1 321 3,241 4,142 5,153 6,211 __ ...:.T.=OJ.H __.3.,.6.11 h23 5,21i.O 6 .. 212 J~OU .a-125 .9,23 ..... ----9,942:-----• ct REVENUE USES • • • ,, --·oPERATING ---------i~a9s --· ---· i;9l;r----2; ii4J-----2;os9 z, os1·-------2;as·9-·---2:·as9 ___ -2;cis:i--··--··· CAPITAL 576 19') 200 199 199 199 199 199 LOAHS 168 199 200 199 199 199 199 199 __ SUPfLEM.tOTHJ;R 20 99 100_ 99 _____ 99 __ 99 99 99---- HEW LEGIS. 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 DEDT SERVICE 179 160 146 131 118 103 86 65 G.F. TO P.F. 100 95 1!9 84 00 00 00 DO __ lQ.Jg _____________ ,_~,-~la ____ ·-~'-&a6 _____ 2,7J,9 2 .. 775 2,669_ •. 2.662... 2,646 2. .. 629---- AVAILADLE CASH 673 1,547 2 1 460 3 1 43& VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 00 ---------------· ----··----··-·-·------.. ---------- -------·----·----·--··---·---·----__ .,_ ______ _ ----··--· '-----------.. ----- 4,391 00 5,462 00 7,312 00 o., CD 0 .. w 0 I " . . . 0 0 0 0 Q 0 0 • 0 • 0 0 0 0 0 0 DATE ;:; 3.126/IU TIME :: 16'123 --··---··-----~-----STATE OF AlASKA~ " . ~-· OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD nUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING -----'--·-----··-·---. ------·-----· ·-----·--------~-------------------·--·-----------SHERHAH'" CLARK-;;;-REFERENC E:-c'As E-t;;a3 It PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER • • • • • • . ~. • • UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS --------------------;All COMPOHEtfTSIHDEFLATED 1934 DOUARS REVENUE SOURCES FY92 ______ FY9J FY95 f:v96·----FY97-·-·--'Fna OIL & GAS 2,915 2,331 2,720 2 1 456 2,223 2,211 2,133 OTHER .------·376 376 ____ ,375. 375 ____ 376 _____ .375------376 --f'.F." .. Ttn:;7f:. .346 365 333 402 ltl9 ltl7 454 INVESTMEHT 60 61 61 62 62 63 64. GF FORWARD 6,898 7,525 8,044 8,446 3,580 8,488 8,377 __ TQJ:!..L U.r.5-~.L__._ll_,,16D _ll,586 ___ ll,lftl 1,667 1,576 1~.~11---------- REVENUE USES -OPERATING 2·;·o1s ___ ·-z;o9s···-----z;111 2;135 ·z;Is9-----2.iaa ----2:212- CAPITAL 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 LOAHS 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 SUPPLEM/OTHER 99 99 _99 _99 _____ 99 99 _____ 99---------- --HEW'LEGis:--~ OD 00 OD 00 00 00 00 00 DEBT SERVICE 4i4 37 21• 12 10 08 D6 G.F. TO P.F. OD 00 00 DO DO 00 DO __ TqHL g_,_~~9 ~~.6~3 2,633 2 •. 6~3 2 .. 61.0 2.,696 2. .. 11!---------- AVAILABLE CASH 7,977 3,527 8,952 9,095 VOTED CAPITAL OD DO 00 00 a, 997 DO -AVERAGE-GRoWtH''RUE-lH-c~i:-CDo~--AVERAGEP'opi][A't!oH'-okowiHRATE• 1.osx a.aao 00 8,692 OD AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMANENT FUHD: lD.DD= GENERAL FUHD BALANCE: 9.00~ AVERAGE GROWTH/DECliNEs LOANS: 6.0DX DEDT SERVICE: -17.40~ INCOME TAX REINSTITUTED IH 1935 TAXING EFFORTI 43.21X _E.C.Otfqr:u.~ PtlJJJ.~C_lOR REP.EALEO IN 19.!1.!1 PERM. FUND DISTRIDUTIDHS PROGRAM REPEI\LEDZ...DIVIDEHDS&YES INFLATION PROOFING: HD----- AVG. NOM I HAL OR INFLATIOti PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE -oPERATlNGllUDGE.....-------o;oD "67il D-D.oii 1.D5-77ii _____ OPER SUPPLEMEHTALS • OTIIER SUrPLEMENTALS --CAPITAL BUDGET o.oo D.llO O.Ofr 6.00 6.0D 6.00 o.oo 1.05 o.oo D.OD o.oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo 6.0D .•• --cAP!TACSUPPLEHEHTlt:~-----O.OD -·6·.oo 0 :· 00 O.DO O.OG • ---···------------------·-----------------·------• , r ,. . DATE : 8/26/83 TIME : 16•21 -STATE O·F ALASKA • -------- OFFICE OF TilE GOVERHOR OfFJ CE OF MAIIAGf:MI:IIT J\JID BUDGET UIVI~lOU 01: ~di<AHGIC PlAIHiliiG (.• c. -2. ------------·----... /IIIII I'IVr.lllllll" Jfll'ft:A~.J, DJ:I'T. Of Rr:V., "JUliE Ill -·-·-··· ... ··---··--- ' • I'IU~I'AREll BY TIIOMAS P. CHF.STER • • • I 0 0 • 0 • 0 REVENUE SOURCES ,.<: .. Oil I GAS OTHER -F;F;· TO-G7F. HIVESTMEHT GF FORWARD __!.QiftL REVENUE USES OPERATING CAPITAL LOAHS SUPPLEM.tOTHER -·-HEW lEGIS:-· . DEBT SERVICE G. F. TO P. F. ___ ,IO.TAL _____ AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL f:fatt 2. 974 231 DO 109 274 ~-~53.? -r;895 576 163 20 00 179 100 2 ,,?.Ja 651 00 ·~----------------------------• -·------0 •u FYas 3,230 320 161 83 651 s.~..4.97 z-;·ozz 209 209 .1 04 00 163 l 00 _,2,112.0 1.676 00 UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANAlYSIS FYa6 FY37 FYaa FYt.9 FY90 FY9l 3,522 3,755 3,·895 4.231 4#669 4,560 ~18 .liU 469 49A .527 559 222 280 332 381 432 11aa 10 70 74 79 S4 90 1,676 2,316 4, 091 5.525 7,137 9,1!3 ~,.91.0 2.366 a.a64 0 .. 111---12,902 14,aa 2;274 i;"tt29 2,565 2.73~ 2,394 3,073 222 235 250 26'!' 231 297 222 235 250 265 2!1 297 Ill lH 125 132. .. 1'•0 ·--------lli~ ---00 0~ 00 00 DO ilO 163 155 1411 137 122 911 100 100 00 tiD .. 00 00 3, 0 9J J .. 2H ,.3 ... 3311 .530 ,.7111 ,916- 2,U6 '· ~.091 5,525 7.1117 9,13l 10, 96& 00 00 00 00 00 00 ----------------·-------------------·------------ , , • • .. • •• • • • • • • • DATE : 8126/AJ TIME = 16121 0 ·-----·-. STATE OF_ALASKA. ·-·:--------OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING --71lTWPERCENTI[t-FORECAST7""DEPt:-'oF REv:-;-jiJtie' 33 ·--.. ·-·----· ... --· ·------·-. PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS -·--··-· -··----- REVENUE SOURCES fY92 FY93 FY94 Fns· FY96 FY91 FY9A OIL I GAS OTHER --r·:;::-to G.F. InVESTMENT GF FORWARD TOTAL ~.393 ~iSH 4,587 4.323 4,062 4.207 4,209 593 629 666 706 50 794 -!42. 546 609 677 751 329 912 l,OOil· 96 102 109 117 125 134 143 10.966 .t,'l .463 13,972 15,343 16,262 16,706 11, osa l._:u_:,o_t 18,.379 _20,0ltf ____ 2l~242 22.029 22.154 2.3,254 J\E'IENUE USES --or eRA t:!HG CAPITAL LOANS SUPPLEMIOTHER ----NEIJ LEGis:-· DEBT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. __ TfiTA~--- -3.277 ··3;.567' s;y~-6 4,0i6 4,305 4.6~2 4.954 315 334 354 376 398 422 LG7 ..... 315 334 354 .376 398 422 447 157_ J67_ 177 liHI 99 11-----223-----------00 00 00 00 OD DO DO 00 71 6l 38 23 21 17 14 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 1_,_137 -·· h~ 01 ~' 6 71 ____ ~ •. 91 9. 5,J22 5,696 .6, oaa ------ Q 0 0 • 0 0 0 0 0 · •; AVAILABLE CASH 12,ti63 13,972 15,343 '16.262 16,'7Q6 :1,058 17,166 0 • VOTED CAPITAL 00 CO 00 00 00 00 00 -AvEJU:GE-(;Rowru-RX'ncur cP I~oox-----AVERAGE-roriiLA T'rati· CiRowrif"RATEa 1: os'= AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMANENT FUHO: lO.OOX GENERAL FUND BALANCE: 9.00~ 0 • AVERAGE GROWTHIDECLIHEt LOANSt 6.00X DEDT SERVICE: -17.ti0~ INCOME TAX REINSTITUTED IH 1985 TAXING_EFFORT: ti3.21X -.5CON~MI f!_J.JM!!_.fACLOK.B.~PJ;~L.~Q •• HI_l988., __ .P ERI1 .•. F-:UHD_ DI SJR I DU.TlOHS .. r.ROGRAM_REP EALED.r_.DlV lDEHDS: YES ... 1NFLA TlON PROOFING t. NO ·------ llPERATIR(fl!UbGE OPER SUPPLEMENTALS ,.., OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS --CAPITAL BUDGET --cAPITlc-SUPPlEHERr~~ AVG. NOMINAL GROWTH RATE · o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo o :-a o OR lt~FLATIOH PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE 6.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo 6100 0.£,00 6.00 o.oo PER CAPITA OVERALl AVERAGE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE 1. 05 7 .il 1. 05 o.oo o.oo 6.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo o.oo -------- 0 0 0 0 • • • •• • 0 0 ~ • • • • • ... v DATE : 3126133 TIME = 16&21 ·---·---·------.. STATE OF.AlASKA_ ... OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AND DUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLANNIHG ·---70llt PERCENTILE "FORECAST, DErr:-·oF-REV .:-;-·JiJtH~-Al-·-------··---......... , .. ____ -.... . PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GEP.ERAL FUHG ANALYSIS ---------------------~ALL COMPOHEIHS IH DEFLATED 1944 DOLLARS REVENUE SOURCES FY34 'i='Y85 FY36 FY3J. FY48 FY89 FY90 FY91 OIL l GAS OTHER --P:F :"'I'd-o-:t:. INVESTMENT GF FORWARD -· ~Q.T.AL ·--·-·---- z. 974 3,12.4 31165 3,133 3,114 231 304 375 376 375 DO 153 199 237 266 109 79 63 59 59 274 620 1,506. 2,387 3,272 ~. 589, _____ 4, 283. s,.:no_ 6.a24.4 _]. 081!. 3,192 3,323 3,062 ·-----376. 375 375---- 287 308 327 60 60 60 4,168 5,11~ 6,165 ____ a, oa4.----· 9,111.2 ·-·--9, 992---- REVENUE USES --OPERATIHG CAPITAL LOANS SUPPLEM.IOTHER --NEW lEGis:·· . DEDT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. __ TQ1.~L 2;os9 z~-o5i -··--------. --------..... r;89s 1.9l'i 2;043 2.059 2.059 2,063 576 199 200 199 199 199 199 199 168 199 200 199 199 199 199 199 20 --99 _____ 100 .99 99 --99 _____ 99. 99 00 00 00 00 00 oc 00 00 179 160 H6· 131 ua 103 u 65 100 95 89 M 00 DO 00 00 2..t.9~~--· __ 2.~_686 2.a.ll9 2.r.U5 2 ... 669 2.r66Z _2.646------2-649 AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL 651 1.596 2,530 3,468 4,411!. 5,421 6,535 7,362 DO DO DO 00 DO DO 00 00 ••--•-• • --· •-• •-••---··-·---·-------------------•• • -• -•--e•-•-• • • .. --• --·----- • • .. • • • .. • • • • DATE = 31'26183 TIME = 16 •21 .. ----·-· -······-·-~-----~·-·-------·· ___ .. _____ .. _ Sl'ATE OF ALASKA... ··-------OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND DUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHNIHG --70TH PERCEHTILI:' FORECAST;-DEPT:-oF REv·:-;-·jutli:' 33---·-·-.. ---------·· . .,.. .. ---·---·---.. -• PREPARED l'iY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GEHERAL FUND ANALYSIS -------·--·----·---- • XEVEHUE SOURCES • OIL l GAS OTHER -r: I=:-· tb--G. F. lH'JESTMEHT • GF FORWARD FYl2 F'ffj 2 I 7lS~ 2, 7:53 376 376 3~6------364 60 61 61945 1,447 __ !Q.T Al":.-. ______ ....: lJ!.~.~pi 10 t.982 • REVENUE USES FY94 2,586 •375 352 61 7,376 _11,,2<12 f:ris FY96 r:v·97 FY9A 21299 2,033 1,991 11379 375 376 ____ 375 376 399 415 431 446 62 62 63 64 a,lH 3,159 7,907 7,6H' 11.296 1 ... 052 J 0 111 0 ·----10 I ,343 • --OPERAHJ4G-------2. 075"·----·· l., 095 .. 2~ 111----·-···-2;135---·· ··2,159---·-·· 2,188 2,212 CAPITAL 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 • LOANS 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 SUPPLEM/OTHER 99 99___ 99 99 99 99 ________ 99-----·---- -HEW' LEGIS. Oci 00 ·-oo·· 011 00 00 Oil 00 DEBT SERVICE 44 37 21 12 10 08 06 G.F. TO P.F. 00 00 00 oo 00 00 00 -~---I!Hg._ _ ~.L62~ ____ 2,&33 2,6ll 2,.6~8 z,670 2,696 ____ z.,na .. _ --·~-----·~---.-.·-• • • q AVAILABLE CASH 71894 !,349 8,649 ' 8,648 8,331 a, on 00 7,665 00 • VOTED CAPI'TAL 00 00 00 00 00 • • -AVERAGE"'GROWTW RATE:'"lH-cri :·· 6-: o o~r-----AVERAGiCPoi'ui.AT iofCciiowtif"RA Tifl"f:'osi------~·---... -·----·----- AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMAHEHT FUNDI lO.OOX GENERAL FU~O BALANCE• 9.00~ AVERAGE GROWTH/DECLIHE: LOAHS: 6.00~ DEBT SERVICE: -17.40X INCOME TAX REINSTITUTED IH 1985 TAXIHG EFFORT• ECO~pMIC ~IM~T.FACTOR RErEALEO IH 19!8 PERM. FUND DISTRIBUTIONS PROGRAM RErEALEDI DIVlDEHDS:YfS lHFLATlOH r&OUFIHG1 HO 4A.21X AVG. NOMINAL OR IHFLATIOH PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTII RATE ·GROWTII RATE USED nJ REAL DASE GROIHH RATE GROWTI,l RATE -OPERA TING'"BUDGE,..., --------0 :o 0 ~ &:· il 0-------o:-ti 0 f: 0~----7 .11---·-------- l"..llt. OPER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0. 00 6. 00 0. 00 1..';5 0. 00 . ., OTIIER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 6.DO 0.00 0.00 6,00 -CAPITAL BUDGET 0.00 _____ 6.,1 0 0.:.00 _______ 0,00. _____ 6.00 ____ , ... CAPITAL"SUPPLEHEHTAl"S o:·oo 6.60 o.oo o.oo 11.00 0 • • • • 0 f) • • 0 DATE : 8126/U TIME : Ut15 --·3o:CREVE.IUE"'FORECAST ,-DEPJ.';-"OF-REIJ:-;-J'UHE-83 8 PREPARED BY TIIOMAS P. CIIESTER . STATE OF ALASKA OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND DUDGET DIVISlOH OF STRATEGIC PLANHIHG ~ ... --· ----------·-. --···· ·-·----.. ··---··---.. ----·--·-------.... ··-· ---~---·---------- • • • • • • • •• • UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND AHALYSIS ----------------- REVENUE SOURCES Oil & GAS OTHER i=¥92 2.842 593 505 --~:·F: ··yb-<i:-F-. ------- INVESTMENT GF FORWARD 96 4,382 TOTA.~L ________________ ~ IS t-1J.9 'REVEHUE USES FYil FY94 2,694 2,575 62~ 666 555 606 102 109 4,21S2 3,857 ~.,_26j 7.:...815 --oPERATING ---3; 277-----3-; 507----3;-746 CAPITAL 315 334 354 lOANS 315 334 354 FY95 2.471 ~ 706 659 117 3,144 z. Qj9 4';oi6 376 SUPPLEM.fOTHER 157 lH_ 1H ____ _... --tm.rt EGIS-;',. __ ,_ __________ 0 0 0 0 0 0 lU. 88 DEBT SERVICE 71 63 38 G.F. TO P.F. 00 00 00 00 23 __ T_OT~t 4.1_13.1 4 _4QL. 4.1.6.7..1 ____ _, 00 lt.J.H. AVAILABLE CASH 4,282 VOT~D CAPITAL 00 3,!57 00 3,144 00 2,120 DO FY96 2.257 750 715 125 2,120 s ..... 96a 4,3os 398 398 99 00 21 00 .5,_322 645 !lO -AVERAGE-GROWTH-Itne-·nrc~r:-6: oox AVERAGE-PffPlilATIOH-GROWTHRATEr 1. osx AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMAHEHT FUND: lO.DOr. GENERAl FUHD BALANCEt 9.0or. FY97 FY9! 2.260 2,293 .791f _Aif 773 834 134 143 645 -1,,087 !t .... 6 Dll 3.026 4,622 ~.954 422 447 422 H7 211 223._ 00 00 00 17 14 00 OG 5,,6 96 & .. oaa -1,oa7 -l, 061 00 00 AVERAGE GROWTH.IDECLIHE: I.OANS: 6.00" DEBT SERVICE: -17.40~ IHCOME TAX REINSTITUTED IH 19!5 TAXlNG_EFFORTt ECONOMIC LIMIT FACTOR.Ji.E.f.£AL~D-!:.f.L~?.~~:--..<.P.E~t!.:J1ltlD_P.I.~L~!.BJl.U.9tf.LeRO.GRAt:LRE.P..J;A.LfQl.....OI.Il.IDEHDS.ll:.ES_IHELATIOH_PROOEIHG.t...i'iO----43.21% • -oPERATIHG-aUDGE OPER SUPPLEMEHTALS • OTHER SUPPLEMENTALS --CAPITAL BUDGET ... CAPITAL-SUPPLEMEH1rA1'S' __ _ AVG. HOM I HAL GROWTH RAft: 11:-oo o.oo o.oo 0.00 ---o:-oo OR lHFLATIOtf GROWTH RATE USED ·6·: 0 0 6.00 6.00 6.00 6·:oo PEP.CEHTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE TO REAL BASE GROWTH RAn; GROWTH RATE ii7oo 1.05 7.11 o.oo 1.05 o.oo o.oo o.oo 6.00 0.10 0 o.Loo 6 ... 0 o.oo o.oo o.oo t" 'OC ... ~ "" ~ .. .. • DATE : 8/26.'33 TIME : UtlS ---------·-----------------·· STATE OF. ALASKA----------------··-· -----------·-- • OFfiCE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING --·30% REVEHUE" FORECAs·r-, !Jtr'f-;-oF-REIJ:-, jtiHEAl ·------------------·------------------ ~ PREFARED DY THOMAS P. CHESTER • UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUH!.l ANALYSIS ALL COMPOHEHTS • R.EJEHUE SOURCES • • • • • 0 0 0 0 • o .. --------------FY84------;. FYAS FY3.6 2,6~2 2. 677 304 375 l52 197 79 63 326 772 OIL I GAS 2,666 OTHER 231 --r:r-.-ro-G-:-f!:-------oo IHVESTMEHT 109 GF FORWARD 274 TOTAL 3..L28Q ___ _ ~ . ..,505 s..~...oa~ REVENUE USES -OPERA"TttfG·------~1,8 95----1-, '93i" __ _ CAPITAL 576 199 LOANS 168 • .199 2:o43 20() 200 SUPPLEMIOYHER 20 99 --NEW lEGis;-···----oo 00-----100 DO DEDT SERVICE 179 160 G.F. TO P.F. 100 95 __ IQJ~~--W~ft ____ 2L686. ___ _ AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAl ·-----·-··-.. 0 342 !19 DO 00 146 39 ~.r.1H 1,306 00 IN DEFLATED-i9i~OLLARS FY37 Fna 2,645 2,581 376 375 233 258 59 59 1,232 1,671 ~ .... su ~ .... 946 2,059 2,051 199 199 199 199 99. n 00 00 131 118 84 00 2 •. 7.75 ..z .. 669 1, 771 2,276 .uo .!JO -· .. ···::-------:: ----~-·-----F¥39 FY9'll FYU 2,563 2,325 lt9!4 ____ 376 ____ 375-----375---- 276 292 307 60 60 6C 2,14S 2,605 2,843 ___ __,, 4 ?.'t • 66 Q .5 ,.._ ___ _ _ __ ..... 2,059 2,059 2t063 199 199 199 199 199 199 -99 99. 99 00 00 00 103 ~6 65 00 00 00 -2~662 2.646 2..629 2.761 3,013 2,942 00 00 00 ..... : . \ • · ... .. ... . • • • • • • • • • ~ • • • 0 DATE = 8.1261'83 TIME : Usl5 ·-·-·-_ ---·--..--· .... , ... ,·--··------·---··--~-------STATE OF ALASKA • _ ._. ___ ,·----------···· ····""'-·----· -· · -· · ., ••·•• -~··------····-··· OFFICE Of TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHING ----JO~ REVEHUI;-FORECAST;-DEPT:-;o,:··REv:;-JUH[('a3-· -·-----··--··-· --·--· ------·--- PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS -------------------.All 'cor1rbHENTS IH DEFLATED ua"fDoLLARS REVENUE SOURCES ------------------------~FY~2 FY93 FY94 Fi9s -FY96 FY97 FY98 OIL & GAS OTIIER --p .F. ·ro· o:F·.-- IHVESHIEHT GF FORWARD ___ T..Q.~~ 1.451 1,314 1,132 1,069 1,02/f 375 375 l76 375. JJ& _____ 341 350 3.59 366 372 61 62 62 6l 64 2,1H 1,672 1,063 305 -485 lt~~os J~ns 2 •. 99 2,1Al 1.351 l,AOO 1,6&0 _________ ,376 ___ 376 _______ _ 320 lll 60 61 2,775 2,558 _______ §,,l.l.J ________ ~' 933 REVENUE USES --·oPERATING CAPITAL LOANS SUPPLEM.IOTHER --Het.l' LEGis:-···-- DEBT SERVICE G. F. TO P.F. __ 1.QJ ~'=---- z,ois '2-;o95----z·. i1C· z •. i'i5 ___ 2;i59 -··-· .... ·-·'----z.usa 21,212 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 99 99_ .99. ___ . __ 99 99 . 99 .99-00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 H 37 21 12 10 oa 06 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 2.~2(1 . _2,,633 2,6J3 ____ 2,,6.G3 2.670 .2.696 _____ 2,713 ·---· AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL z.nz 2,30/f 1, 772 ].,127 323 -514 -1,366 00 00 00 OD DO 00 00 . AVERAGE GROWTH''RioTE-IH-CPI=-·6. "'" ---AVERAGE-POPULA'riOH 'GROWnfRAtEi-f:os;c---·---··· -----·-----··· ... AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMAH~HT FUHO: 10.00: G[HERAL FUHD DALAHCEJ 9.00~ AVERAGE GROI.JTII.IDI:CLINEr LOAHS: 6.00X DEDT SERVICEl -17.40:.: INCOME TAX REINSTITUTED lH 1935 TAXIHG_EFFORP ECOHOMI~.L}MIT .. FACTOR REPEALED IH 19AA PERM. FUHO DISTRIDUTIOHS PROGRAM REPEALE~I DIVlDEHOS:YfS INFLATION PROOFIHGr HO AVG. NOMINAL OR INFLATION GROWTII RATE· GROWTH RATE USED PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT TO REAL BASE PER CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTII RATE GROWTH RATE ··orERATIHG-BUDGET ------·o:oo &:·oo-------o:-i!il:-----,,---r:·os-.. -·---1:11 • -··· ..... .. - 4A.21X OPER $UPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 6.00 0.00 1.05 0.00 • OTIIER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 6.00 O.DO 0.00 6.00 -CAfllti.i. BUPGET O.!l0 ______ 6,.DD o ... oo. __ , 0,00 ______ 6.00 .. ~--·-··-- -·cAPITACSUPPLEiit:l-:Ut'S: 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 • . ·-·····-.. -· -·-·. ----·-------· .. • 't .. ' · ..... &~·~ z~~:~· 0 II 0 • e- " -.. .. .. • .. - -.. .. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ·U T!ME : 161\9 STATE OF ALASKA .. ---------OFFICE OF TilE GOVERIIOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND DUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG -·-50TH" PERCENTILE FORECASt;-DErr:-.. oF· Rev:-;··-JUHE-33 PREPARED RY THOMAS P. CHESTER -----.-· UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS --------------------------A~l~L~COMPIDIEHTs-iH HOMIHAL DOLLARS REVENUE SOURCES OIL & GAS --· ~!~~~t~r-c;~·:--- x NV ES TI'IEHT GF FORWARD FYll4 2.811 __ 231 00 109 274 ____ TQTA~~---------~ ~.t~.~~ REVENUE USES ---OPERATING CAPITAL -r;.a95 LO/IHS SUPPLEM/OTHER~·----------·-NEW LEGIS.. - 576 168 20 00 179 100 --···· ·ilEil i !:t~Y·~t~ G.F. TO P.F. TOTAL ~ ---·-··· .... ~~-~34 ___ FYa5 i=¥36 FY37 FYISS 3,043 3,260 3,450 3,575 320 __________ ~13 H3 469 160 221 277 328 Al 70 70 74 494 1,231 2,156 3,124 lhlO.~ 5.,.250 _____ 6 ... 399 7 ,,51,3 z·;oz7 2;274 2,429 2,565 209 222 235 250 209 222 235 250 ___ 1 04 _____ 111 ___ _:_117_ 125 00 00 00 00 168 163 155 HIS 100 100 100 DO z,azo ______ l,.093 3 ... 27Jt l,lJa FYU 3,M2 49! 374 79 4,234 .-..!1. 029 2, 730 265 265 132. 00 137 00 3 ... 5.30 le94 1,281 2,156 . 3,124 4,234 5,499 00 00 DO 00 DO Oil o·· AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL 0 .. ,, . ·------·--- Cl 0 _ .... ---- • F"f9D 3,945 521 422 84 5.499 10 .. 4!0 2,89C, 2!1 281 140 --· 00 122 00 3.114- &,761 00 ··-----·-·· -· -----·--·-·---·---·· ···-·----·--·-------------------------0 e 0 • • • FY91 3,604 • 559 473 90 6,761 • 1 .. 439 3,073 297 297 • 148 00 94 00 3,.Sl6 7,573 QD • • • 0 0 .. 0 0 a 0 0 • • 0 a ~ DATE = A.t26.1Al TIME = 16•19 -------------·. STATE OF ALASKA..·.-------OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND DUDGET DIVIS!OH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG 50TH PERCEtHILE-FORECAST;-QEP!:·-OF .. REV·:;-·:;uNE-83 PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER ---------··---------------·----·-- UNRESTRICTED G~NERAL FUHD AHALYSIS ALr-tOMPOHEHTS IH HOMINAL DOLLARS REVEHUE SOURCES FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 Oil l GAS 3,475 3.433 3,399 3,164 2,981 3,083 3,062 OTHER 593 629 .666 706 750 794 Alf2 --P-;F. -yo-a:F. 526 SAl 639 701 765 833 905 IHVESTMEHT 96 102 109 117 125 134 143 GF FORWARD 7,573 3,127 3,lj66 3,610 3,320 7,620 6,710 __ TOTAL ~26~ _12 ... 873 13,282 3 ... 300 2 .. 943 z.tt66_ 11.721- REVENUE USES ---·orERATIIfG s-;-211 ~r;so1 3";746 4. oi6 4,305 4,622 4,954 CAPITAL 315 334 354 376 3'}8 422 447 LOAIIS 315 334 354 376 198 422 trn SUPPLEM/OTHER 157 .16?_ 177 88 99 211 223 --HEI.! LEGis:-· DO 00 00 OD 00 00 OD DEDT SERVICE 7l 63 Ja , 23 21 11 H G.F. TO P. F. 00 00 OD 00 00 00 DO ___l.!li:~l __ '1 ,_ll 7 ~.,.~07 tt,671 ~ •. 9B s.:szz 5,696 _6.DAA. AVAILABLE CASH ~.127 3,466 a,61D a,32D 7,620 6,770 5,635 ~ VOTED CAPITAL 00 GO 00 00 00 00 00 -AVERAGE-GROt:lrH-~ATtlti-crt:-6:1!ox-·-·-·--AVERAGE-PofiiJlli'fifiH GiiowriTRAiE' 1. o5~: 00 AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN& PERMANENT FUHDI lO.OOX GENERAL FUND BALAHCft 9.00X 0 AVERACE GROIH!VDECLIHE: LOANS: 6.00X DEDT SERVICE: -17.40X INCOME TAX REINSTITUTED IH l9A5 TAXIHG_EFFORTI -_ _!:q.fl_I!Qti.I.£..~ lt!,f.Lf..A_HPIL_R_Ee E~L ED .• Itf • .l9AA ·---·-~ERM .••• FUHO_ DI~J:RI BU.T!OtfS_f!ROGRAM REP..fALEO.!_DI.VIDEHDS tYES ••• .lNFI,ATIOH.f'ROOFlHG t-HO AVG. NOMINAL OR INFLATION PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVERALl AVERAGE .. GROWTH RATE. GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE . ~~ ' .. ..,_.""'------ U.Zl¥ "OPERATlHC-&UnaEr-------------~o:oo---------6.00--------------~o•.o~o~------------,l-.DS--------~7~.~1~1-------------------- oPER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 6.00 0.0!1 1.05 0.00 • OTHER SUPPLEME!JTALS 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 6.1l0 CAPITAL BUDGET 0.00 6.oo ________ o.._oo ________ O ... D0 _____ 6.00 __________ _ ··cAPITACSUPPI:EMEHTAJ:~ o:oo 6:oo o.oo 0.00 o.oo •u -----.---------------------------------------------------------6 (~ ' -~~~ • • • • • • • • • • • • ,. • ,. • \ , r.• • • • 'o DATE : 3/26/83 ------ TIME = l6tl9 0 0 _ 5 TATE. OF ALASKA • • ----------------· ····---···-····--·---· ·--------OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEOIC PLANNING --..... 50TH-PERCENTILE FORECAsT-;-pepy·;-~oF ·ReV: ;-·JuHE··al----·---------·-·-------·-·---·-... ··-.,. ............ "··----·---- PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER ·------------......... ---·.- UHRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANAlYSIS :-:::--------------------~-::";';o.L."!l';;t..~-'-,-"':~ --------------------.ALL CDMPOHEHTSiifOEFlATED 1984 DOLLARS C. REVEHUE SOURCES -------------·---~FYA4 FYas FY88 FY89 • OIL & GAS 2,s11 2,898 2,929 2,924 z,asa z,a9A z~nos 2o02P -~~~~-~ro-cf:-F--.------2 ~~ ~~~ ----~~~-----~~~-----~z~----~!~ --~65--·~~~=,=-§::"~ INVESTMENT l09 79 63 59 59 60 60 J GF FORWARD 274 470 1,150 1,323 2,493 3~194 ~~9~~ Gc __ J..O.T~l ~~;432 ______ 3,,906 4.~-7.17. S.a.~2!t 6 • 055 6~.!Ul-.~l'.;•~58 ..• "" ~ • 0 REVENUE IJSES • -·-OPERATitiG i;395----y,93l-----2·;o43 -2;0!i9 i:~sf-·~~~~2~059 CAPITAL 576 199 200 199 )99 ll'J'J LOAHS 166 199 200 . 199 !99 RQ~ SUPPLEMIOTHER. ________ 20 99 100. ___ 79 --~·9!)--~-~·· --HE14.LEGIS:--··-00 00 00 00 flu OEDT SERVICE 179 160 146 131 l&B G.F. TO P.F. 100 95 a? lift 00 TOTAL ~.2.~3 .2,636 Z,.U?. 2a.l'l5 ___ 2,,fi6 AVAllAalE CASH VOTED CAPITAL !'f94 00 1,220 00 --------------------------------·---------·----- ------~--·--.......... . @ • • 0 0 • 0 • • • • • a· .., DATE = 81'261'83 TIME = Ur !9 ·---·--·---·-----__ . STATE 0 F AlASKA • • -···--::------••••• ·-----••••·• OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD DUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG _,··-50TH PERCF.HTILE FORECASi;-QEPT:-· OF REV:;-·juHE-!3-------· PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER· ----·--------···~-.. ··---·-~--- ------------·------- UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS . REVENUE SOURCES Ff92 FY93 i=r9~a FY95 FY96 FY97 FY93 OIL l GAS OTHER --P:F: ·vo-d:-f=. INVESTMENT C:F FORWARD __ T!!!H. 2,201 211051 1,916 1,632 1,495 1,459 1,367 -3 7 6 _________ 3 7 6 375, .375 376 375-376 333 3H 360 372 344 394 ~O"t 60 61 61 62 62 63 64 ,., 797 4,356 4, 772 4,579 4,174 3,606 3,023 ? .• .J.68 __ , ___ {,,6 92. 7,487 ].,~ 07 3 ____ 6. Ia 93 • 900---5,234 ··-- REVENUE USES --OPERATING CAPITAL LOAHS SUPPLEMI'OTHER -HEW" LEGIS.'' •• DEBT SERVICE G. F. TO P.F. __ T.Q.! !L__,_ z:-;675 -z-,"o9s 2~ ifi 2',T35 z-;"159 .. -----·--· 2,1aa 2,212 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 U9 199 199 199 199 99 99 99 ___ . __ 99. 99 99--·-99 DO llO 00 00 DO 00 00 00 44 37 21 12 10 oa 06 00 00 DO DO 00 CJO 00 Cf.&ZD 2,_~33 __ 2,,ii3~ 2,,648 '·.-2 .. 670 2,696 z.na AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL 5,147 5,059 4,854 ~.425 3,82J 3,204 2,516 00 00 00 00 110 00 00 -AVERAGE-CROWTH"RATE'1tt-CP t ,-6: oa::·-·~--AVERAGE 'POPULATt'ON-GROWTinU~tE:--r: OS Yo • • • • AVERAGE RATE OF RETURH: PERMANENT FUND: 10.00~ GENERAL FUHD DALAHCE: 9.00~ 8 AVERAGE GROWTHI'DECllHE: lOANS: 6.00X DEDT SERVICE: .-17.407. INCOME TAX REINSTITUTED lN 1935 TAXIHG_EFFORTt ~A.2l~ tl --E~OHOMIC .. qM~.LF-'~T.91LJ~~PE~LED .IH l9aa • PERM. FUHD DISTRIDU.TIOHS .. PROGRAM REPEALEU.LDIYIDENDS:YE.S . lHFLATlOH PROOFING' HO-·--- • AVG. HOMIHAL OR IHFLATIOH PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT ~ER CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTII RATE • GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL DASE. GROWTII RATE GROWTII RATE • -oPERATIHG-lWDGET_, _______ o·:oo·-----6-;,oo o:oo-------;1:os 1:11 ... -·-----· OPER $UPPLEt!EHTALS o:oo 6,00 0.011 1.05 0,00 • OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 &.00 0.00 o.oo 6,00 -CAPI1A'l BUDGET 0.00 6.00 ________ 0 1 .00 0,00. ___ ~6.00 .. __________ _ -·cAPITAl-SUPPLEHEHTA[S o.oo 6:oo o.oo o.oo o.oo • ----·----------~------------------------------------------------------- u Q 0 0 c-3 . 0 DATE = 3/2fu'8l TIME :: 161llf STATE OF ALASKA . ·oFFICE OF TilE GOVER.HOR 0 DFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG 0 " -sHERHAtf.CU.RK-=-REFEREHCt"tASE:'-~/8~ c PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER • ' 0 UHRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND AHALYSIS 0 All COMPONENTS IH HOMiHAr-oDIIARS 0 REVENUE SOURCES 0 'i'a~t FY85 FY36 FYA7 FYAA FY39 FY90 FY91 0 Oil & ~AS 2,996 3,203 3,496 3, 795 3,899 ~.320 4.683 ~.tt17 OTHER 231 395 577 612 61f8 688 728 77 --r:F:-ro-c: . l31 491 542 .598 652 705 765 827 Q INVESTMENT 109 81 65 64 6a 11 75 79 GF FORWARD 274 1,010 2~546 ~.490 6, 723 9,147 11,983 15,119 TOTAl hl~!! !!.•J a~ z .• 2za CJ,56J 11 .•.. 99 1.4 •. 93ft !,237. 21.216 ---- ._;.-.t 0 • 0 REVEHl!E USES 0 --oPERATING .a9S. 1,9.51 z,li29 2,111 2,195 2,283 2,3H 2,4i69 0 CAPITAL 576 209 222 235 250 265 281 297 LOANS 168 104 lll 117 125 132 140 148 SUPPLEMIOTHER 20 104 111 117 125 132 40 4! --HEtrLEGIS: 00 00 00 00 DO 00 00 00 0 DEBT SERVICE 179 168 163 155 14! 137 122 98 G.F. TO P.F. l.OD 100 100 100 00 00 00 00 TOTAl 2,938 2_,_~~.2 0.na 2d~-~8 2....~.43 2...&..950 :s •. os8 3,~6 ·, 0 0 C) AVAilABLE CASH 1, 010 2,546 4,490 .. 6,723 9,147 11,933 15,179 13,112 VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 DO 00 00 00 00 00 c 0 0 0 () 0 .... ·-·--···-· 0 .. -. ---·····. ·-.. ---·---·a···---·-----· -----····. ·----------G ·----- .. 0 DATE : 81'26/83 liME : 16134 ·-----------------; STATE OF ALASKA_ .... -------·-------. -···---·------OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR- 0 ---SHERMAH .. Cl ARK-_-R EF ER Et{CE-CA~E-~/Al (t PREPARED fiY THOMAS P. CHESTER 0 • 0 • 0 0 REVENUE SOURCES Oil & GAS OTHER FY9z 4,603 819 890 -p: F .-·ro .. G.:F-.------ IHVESTHEHT GF FORWARD TOTAL --- RE\IENUE USES --oPERATIHG CAPIT.Al 83 18,112 24,509 2,5&8 315 LOANS 5UPPLEI110THE=R------~ ~EtrLEGIS:·- 157 157 DEBT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. TOTAL 00 71 00 lt~11 FY9:s 4,7:39 868 961 87 21,238 27..~..8?.5 z;671 334 167 H.7 00 63 00 l...t11L3 OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG UNRESTRICTED GENERAl FUND ANALYSIS ALL coMroHeHrs-rH HoMiHAL DOLLARS FY9ft FY95 FY96 4,825 1(,619 4,441 920 975 l. 035 1,036 1,112 1,188 9Z 97 102 24,492 27,341 30,952 ;\J...L3.6.7 3S . .J..fJ.!i.6 J'LJ_-18 2.778 z. a·a'1 3,004 354 376 39A 177 185 199 177 188 199 00 ' 00 00 38 23 21 DO .... 00 00 3..t.~.25 ;5.~..66lj 3.._823 '· 0 AVAilABLE CASH 21,233 24,~92 27,841 30,~82 33,925 VOTED CAPITAl 00 00 DO 00 00 FY'H 4,613 1,096 1,267 107 33,925 H~D69 3,124 422 211 211 00 17 flO 3JH 37,082 00 FY93 4,7!9 1~16 1,351 112 17' 082 lf.li~499 3,24''' 4':7 223 ''23 00 14 00 ~.159 40,339 00 -AVERAGE-GRO\.lTH RATE-lH "CPI :-G71lol!:--·---··AVERAGE-POPULATIOtCGROI~tn··RATElT:·osi-------·----·- 0 00 9i!JcRAGE RATE OF RETURB: PERMIIHEHT FUHDt 10.00~ GENERAL FUHO BALANCE: 9.007. 0 AVERIIGE GROI.JTIII'DECLIHE: LOAHS: 6.00li: DEnT SERVICEs -17.40~ IHCOtlE TAX REINSTITUTED IH 191\5 TAXIHG_EFFORTl 96.4l'C -.. E~!JH~r:J~~_!:~J1l! ... ft£19.R_~.~C E~t:.Er;J _JJ:t.l.9t.A .. ·--·~ER~ •.. FU~D .. tH.SJR~ llU.liOHs_e~o.GRM'LREP.EAL ED,.!_Dl V.I DEtiDS a.YES • ItifLA TIOH rROOFlHG a •• YES ·-•.• -~ 0 AVG. HOMIHAL OR lHFLATlON PERCENTAGE ADJUSYMEHT PER CAPITA OVERAll AVERAGE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATf! USED TO REAL nASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE -oPERATIHGIWDGE o:oo 67'00 -z:oo ir:·crii 11.0 Q 0 OPER SUPPLEHEHTALS o.oo 6.00 n .00 o.oo o.oo OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0,00 6. 00 c..oo o.oo 6,00 CAPITAL BUDGET 0.00 6.00 o.oo o ... 00 6 .• 00 M cAPITAc-surPLEMENTArs o·.-oo 6:·oo n:-oo o.co o.oo f) ··-------® 0 . . . ;.\:.. "'·~-, :" ,:· .. ~ .. 0 ,., •• t ,, .. t' .. 1..-... ,, • }'-~-t } : :,,i~~i~~ 0 !•>',;-~ ~ ;i:~,,~ :·'*-~· ~·t yot Jl' ·--0 ·~ {"' ~.t ;"c:~;t :~. ~~.;,:~~~ ~~!-){& 0 ; ,i:f,'!>o..'* .. ~,'J';t!~ "•( ~ ~~: K~ .. ~l .... \of;, .. ~ • 0 ~;31\.~~~ I·•~ ~-t~ ~~~lJ) ~-~~ 0 !C..m~~ =!\~i~ ~ ... -.. ~·· ... _,. ~ ..... c ·"~;~·~; l~~:4f ....... ~ !'i3;,t;~·l" ll"'Y-:l\• \l'•'ltl:l:r I ~!.~·~~ 1 0 ~iH·~. ifldl.ii -.. "·~~ •,!'~~ ,. t~"··f,' • " 7 .•• 0 ~s '·••t:. :;:...; t. •. ·i ..... ,,;~ ~-~ .. ·, . ~="'•{• ... 0 r.-,. • ~h ··~·:\:· ...... , "'l;J·, ~=1~ ·:!t',:·N~;f ·tt!''\~!11_.~ ,..... ... ~.·· 0 .;J:;.t • ~ '" ···j·t:\~ }<;. \n.l J ,_. -··· i-..;.;~:r~ ... , ........ r· 0 ) •• -:.f ....... ·!~:.).;,·,•; •• ·: ... ;,."·' ;.c; .:..,.,~l'.'! ... . , , .. '"' ...... 0 :s-:.~\·~"~· .... ~..,-~ .. ,,.,. e.~·" !., v·-v! .... ~ , ... , ~Y" ~~<'-f,i . l. . 0 :t' .. p!~ ·•Y:et\· ·r-· .... \t .. ~\~-Jr;\Ji;" ,....:; .. •: ;·."'-tl t·"l 0 \:--~ l ''" :.: "' "' r.,.::~.~~~ .r.•t•" ·l ~i·~··.~·"s (I) -~ ~ .. I \Z. .: C) DAlE : !~Z6~a3 TIME : 16 tllt --------------------------· STATE OF AlASKA , 0 -----sHERMAH-ClARK-=-REFEREHC~t~SE-4/Al Q PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER 0 () R.EVEHUE SOURCES FYa·~ FYAS 0 Oil & GAS 2,996 3,055 OTP.EP. Zll 376 --r::=:--To-o-:~. 337 it67 0 INVESTMENT 109 73 GF FORWARD 274 962 TOT/.L 3 948 ~9_3, 0 REVENUE USES .......,__OPERAllHG CB95 i;asa 0 CAPITAL 576 199 LOANS ua 99 SUPPlEMi'OTHER 20 99 -·-HEIJ'LEGIS: ---00 ___ 00 0 DEBT SERVICE 179 160 G.F. TO P.F. 100 95 TOTAL 2.t.2 ~~-----? .. _51~ .. ----.. -···~--... . AVAtlADlE CASH 1,010 2,lt25 0'; VOl ED CAPITAL 00 OD 0 0 0 0 011 e OFFICE OF THE GOVERHOR OFFlCE OF tiAHAGEMEHT AtiD DODGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS FY36 FY!7 FYU 3,141 3,217 3,117 518 519 518 ftll7 506 521 59 Sit Sit 2.,2llll 3,806 5,376 FYA9 3,259 519 532 54 6. 9 0.9 6.~.5.94 A..o..l04 9..o.5llo9 __ ___lL266 1,823 G7a9 1,iss 1,722 200 U9 199 199 lllO 99 99 99 100 99 99 99 DO 00 00 00 146 lll 11! 103 89 M 00 00 ~t.46 0 2..a..lt 0.5 2 .. 2.7 z •. zzs 4,034 • 5,699 1 ,.315 9,040 00 00 00 00 e 0 0 Q 0 0 0 FY90 FY91 3,333 2,965 .518 1! 5115 555 53 53 a.sza 10,191 0 2..,.97.9 !C.,2ll 1.690 1,658 199 199 99 99 0 99 99 00 00 86 65 00 00 0 2.H6 2..12.1 10,802 12.,160 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DATE = 6126/.U TIME : 16•3"1 -----------·----------------STATE OF ALASKA . ···- --sHERHAH .. tl.:A~K-::;-kEFEREHCE""C),s£-"itia3 PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER OFFICE OF THE GOVERHOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD DUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHNIHG UURESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS 0 ·--------~--------- ·-----·· .. ·--.. ------ Ct REVEHUE SOURCES 0 0 0 FY92 i=Y93 i=Y94 . OIL & GAS 2,915 2,831 2.720 OTHER _______ 519 519 ____ _ --P~F.-'T!l-G:-t:=: 564 574 518 584 IHVESTMEHT 52 5Z 52 GF FORWARD 11,472 12,69b u,ao6 __ I!H.~L 1~ .... ~~.'•---·16,668 __ _ 11., 682_ REVEHUE USES --oHRATltiG CAPITAL 1,626 199 99 LOMIS SUPPLEMIOTHER --HEI·rLEGls·~-'!-..-----99 no DEDT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. TOTAl 44 00 2,071 1-;596 1,566 199 199 99 99 _99 _______ 99 DO 00 l7 21 DO DO FY95 FY96 FY97 FY96 2.~56 2,228 2,211 z,1J8 518_ 519 _______________ 5\8 _____________ 519-------------------------- 591 596 599 603 51 51 50 so 14,806 15,543 16,057 16,557 18 •. ~25 18,,938 __ __ .... 9,438 19,!69. 1,536 1,507 1,479 1,~51 199 199 199 199 99 99 99 .99 99 99 99 99. ;. 00 00 00 DO 00 12 10 03 06 00 00 DO DO L918 1,887 l.o857 . " ?,_033 ___ 1.,.9!!.7 1,948 • AVAILABLE CAS~ 13,~52 14,635 15,694 16,~76 17,020 17,551 18,012 VOTED CAPITA.:. 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 "AVERAGE-·cRowtin~n~:t•ccPI-: -·coo;: AVERAGE-rorliCAffoif'Giiot:irif-iU. T"i;z 1. iisr. ~ ~=~:!3~ :~~~T~~D~~l~n~: r~:~~~EHT :~~g~ D~~io:;RVIC~~HE~~~.t~:D DALAHCE 1 IHCO~~o~:X REINSllTUTeD IH 1985 TAXIHG EFFORT& 96.43X --~.fQ_H_I!!!!C LHIIT FACT9JLREPE~~.EQ_l,tLll.88 __ ~ERI:\ •. _F.UHD_DlS.T_RXIlUJl.OHS •. Y..ROGRhM_RErEALED! .. DIVI.DEHOS Z:YES. INFLATION .PROJF!NG.I-YES-- • AVG. HOMIHAl OR IHFLATIOH ~ERCEHTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTH RATE · GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE -oPERATIH(jBODGE 0:0 o------6•.-·o·o----------,z:-oo o. Do 4. 0 o 0 OPER SUPPLEtlEHTALS 0.00 6.00 0.00 G.llD 0.00 OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 6.00 o.oo 0.00 6.00 ! -CAPITAL BUDGET ------,0.00 6.~0 0.._00 ________ 0,00 _____ 6,00 __________ _ .... CAPITACSUPPLEMEHTUS' o·:-oo 6:oo o.oo 0.00 O.OQ ft .• ---·-----o L'!'t. ~ u 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q 0 j l .. j! I :~rf ,\ ·, '.:.~x.: .. ·· . .,. , ' ' , "-..... DUE : A/26.133 ... \·-\ ,. '··.' ..... C-3 TIME = UalZ • -----·-·-oFFn~rgFo~tl~l~~~~RHOR ----------------··-·---·---.. ---·---·-- OFFICE OF f'lhHAGEMEHT !IHD DUDGET f' DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG 7 Olll PERCEHi ILE FORECAST,· DEPT.-OF REV:·; JUNE Al ___ ....... -'···-••. ······--·· •• ·--··---·-... -.. ... " .. -..... •-'-·-·· ···~- PREPARED llY THOMAS P. CIIESTER • UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD AHALYSIS • REVENUE SOURCES • --------------------,FY874 ________ FYa5p·----=FYa6·.-----~F~Y·~a7~------~FYA3 ----=-... -.,__ ___ -:: FY~9 FY90 FY91 Oil & GAS 2,974 3,280 3,522 3,755 3,395 ~,231 ~,669 ~.~60 OTHER -----231 _____ ,395 ___ , __ 577 ____ ,612 _____ (!~8 _____ 688 --·--· 7211.----·772---- --p;F ... TO'G:-F. 336 491 543 599 652 705 104 825 IHVESTMEHT 109 U 65 64 68 71 75 H GF FORWARD 274 988 2,598 ~,569 6,761 9 1 184 11,931 15,110 TOTAL_. ____ _,... __ __...~~4~ .S.t.237. _____ 7_,307_. ___ 9,,601 _12,028 4,3lll ___ U,l69. 2l,349------- • • REVEHUE USES • --oPERATING Ca95-----·-1;951----2~oz9 2~Yi1 2~195 2.283----2~374 2~~69 CAPITAL 576 209 222 235 250 265 231 297 LOANS 16.!5 104 Ul 117 125 132 140 143 SUPPLEM/OTHER 20 104 111 117 _____ .1:!5 _____ 132 _____ 140 --·---H&------llEW"LEGIS: ·--.. ·------·oo"'-·----00------00-00 00 00 00 -Oil DEBT SERVICE 179 168 163 155 14& 137 122 9.!5 G.F. TO f'.F. 100 100 100 100 00 00 00 00 _ __.IO'[~L •. ___ __:<;! ~ 38 ____ 2, 6J 9 ____ 2, 738 ____ 2,.83.!5 z, 8lt 3 z, 950 ______ 3 .. 05A ----l • .l&l---- • • AVAILAtLE CASH 983 2,598 4,569 a 6,763 9,184 11,931 15,110 1!,135 VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 {10 • --------·--·-· _ .... ·-----·-----·----···---- ---------------------------------------------------------·-----------------------·----------------·-------------------• ---------------·-------·-··------ • . .. 0 0 • 0 • • • 0 • 0 0 DATE = 3126/U TIME : Utl2 ·---------------------··-··STAJ.E .OF .ALASKA.---·=--------------------------OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHO BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ---,OTH-pERCEHTli:Etillil:'t"Arr;-bEPl:OrREV •11 JUHE !3 PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS ALL COMPONENTS IH HOMIHAL DOLLARS REVENUE SOURCES FY92 FY93 FY91t FY95 FY96 Oil l GAS 4. 393 lt,5H lto!i37 At~323 4,062 OTHER 8l«J tl68 920 975 1 ... 035 --p:F :-rn-~-:.:. 387 953 1,023 1,093 1,161 INVESTMENT 83 &7 92 91 102 GF FORWARD u~.us 21,103 21\.183 27.282 30,107 TOTAl 24_~74 ~.L.~a.z._,_:s_o..J.a o a 33 .. ._'l.l2 36 ... HIS REVEHUE USES FY97 fY98 4,207 ta,2Q9 1.096 _1 .. 162. 1,22.9 1,301 107 112 32,645 35,299 39 .. 286 lt2., 0!5 --oPERATIH(; 2;568 2-;61'1 2oi7a 2,889 3, 004 3,124 3,2ft9 CAPITAL 315 334 354 376 393 422 447 LOAHS 157 167 'H7 188 199 211 22l SUPPLENIOTHER 157 167 177. 188 __ l99 ____ zlt __ .. ___ 223 ... _____________ _ --:-HEW lEGis:-··· DO 00 00 00 00 00 DO ClO DEBT SERVICE 1l ~3 38 23 21 17 14 ~.F. TO P.F. DO DO OD • DO DO 00 00 _!.Q!}.l 3,2].1 ____ 3.,_~.0.~ 3,_52~ ____ 3,66!1 3,&23 "t.U7 ~ .. 1591---------- AVAILABLE CASH 21,103 24,183 27,282 30,107 32,645 VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 OD 00 -AVERAGE' GROWTH 'RATE-IH-Crl:-6: oox-·--AiJERAGE ... POPULAriOH-GROWTWRATE-, -r:·osfi 35,299 tlO 37,925 00 ·---·--------- AVERAGE RATE OF RETURH: PERMAHEHT FUHD• 1D.OG~ GENERAL FUHD DALAHCE• 9.00~ 0 AVERAGE GRO~THI'DECLIHE: LOAHS• 6.00:C DEilT SERVICE& -17.40~ IHCOI'IE TAX REINSTITUTED IH 1985 TAXIHG_EFFORTt 96.~:SX -..!£1lliP.~.!£J:.Jt~}..LfJ..~Tl1-.,LBEPt;l!...'-...i;!LPL19Sa .,. __ PERM ••• FU~D .DISIRIIlUl'lOHS .PROGRAM ... REPEALEDL .. DIVIDEHOS:YES __ IfifLATIOH .. PROOf~HGt-YES--- AVG. HOMIHAL OR IHFLATlOH PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVERALL AVERAGE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL DAS~ GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE -oPERATIHG-BUDGET--------o:Do ----b:oo-------_:.....2.00 o.oo 4,00 Q g~~~RERS~~~lp~ME~HETHA.TLASLS 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 o.oo 0,,00 6.0D o.oo o.oo 6.00 -CN'ITAL BUDGET 0.00 ____ 6.00 o,.oo ________ o,oo _____ 6.DO --cA'I'ITA~SUPPLEMEHTAt:S o:oo· 6:oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 • 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • ~ ~ 0 r .. ') ·. 1) , .. ·' •' ., :. . ., l ~ ·-d .., t. ...; DATE = 8/26/al TIME = 16132 . STAlE OF AlASKA ..... --------OFFICE OF THE GOVERHOR OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHO BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG ------.. ----------·- ---7 OTH··p ERCEHTI t.:E-FORECAS 1,-DEP.t :--oF. REv:-;-Juth( a3 ----------·--------- PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER REVENUE SOURCES Oil l GAS OTHER ·-p; F:· TO. t:·t:. INVESTMENT GF FORWARD ___ J_OJ.~~ REVENUE USES FYAct 2,974 231 336 109 274 l_r_~?.~. FYas 3,124 ._ . .376 468 78 9'tl ~ ,_983 UHRESTRICTED GEHERAl FUHD AHAlYSIS ALLCOMPOHENTS IH DEFLATED 19M DOLLARS FY36 FYA7 FYaa FYA9 FY90 3,165 3,133 3,114 3,192 3,323 518 519 518 519 518 438 507 522 532 544 59 54 511 54 53 2, 3311 3,873 5,1!08 6' 92.6 3,491 6.,.565 a, us 9_. 618 11.22.6 12.930 ---·oPERATING f;895----i~358 i-;823 1.789 -----· 1,755 1,722 1,690 CAPITAL 576' 168 LOANS SUPPLEM/OTH""'E~R~---------20 --HEW LEGI57' DEBT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. ___ !.'lJ}l AVAILABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL ·~ DO 179 l!;l:O 2,93.3 988 00 l'J9 200 199 199 199 199 99 100 99 99 99 99 99 100 99 99 99 _99 00 . 00 00 00 00 DO 160 146 131 118 1Dl 36 95 89 84 00 00 DO 2 ,_51_1 2,,_46 0 2,_4 05 z. 27_4 2.2.2.5 2.176 2,474 lt,105 • 5.732 7,344 9,000 10,753 00 DO DO 00 00 DO .... -............. -......... ·----~, ... _ . ., ........ -..... ___ ., ........ -....... ---··· --·-· -....... ·-· " -FY91 3,062 .51! 554 53 10,144 ~4 .ll,lt. --·-~-1,65!\ 199 99 ~9 OD 65 DO 2..l2l 12.209 00 ..... *" ............. ·----- 0 • , • • • • • • . . g 0 • • • • • • 0 (i t·( . ~ 0 0 DATE : 8/26/!3 TIME : 16132 STATE.OF ALASKA······-----------------··-· OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET DIVISIOH DF STRATEGIC PlANHIHG --'-7OTH -p ERCEHTI [E-FOREC.ASl-;-DEf'T:-di! .. REI7:-;-JUfiE8l.------------------------- AVAILABLE CASH 13,366 14 1 450 15,379 16,011 16,373 16,707 16,934 VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 -: 00 00 DO 00 -AVERAGE-GROtJTH-RATtlHcPI-; -6·:-oor-AVERAGE-POPiJLATiDH-GROWTirk,\f~i:"osi AVERAGE RATE OF RETURHt FERMAHEHT FUHD: 10.00% GeNERAL FUHD DALAHCEI 9.00~ C) AVERAGE GROWTIIIDECliNEI lOANS: 6.00~ DEDT SERVICE& -17.r,o~ INCOME ThX REINSTITUTED IN 1935 TAXIHG_EFFORT: 96.~3X .-ECOHOIHC LIMIT FACTOR REPEAL_~_!.!Ll.t~~--e.E..~Ij.!_f.!:!!lQ...Q);_~_T.RlpUJ.IOtiS_f.8_0_(!,MtLREe.EAJ.ED_~DIV.IDENDS}..YES _lHf.lATIOH fRDOFIHG:_ YES ____ _ AVG. HOMINAL. OR !HFLATIOH GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE USED • OPERATINGI!Ui'lGE'T-------- 0 OPER SUPPLEMEtiTA!.S OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS .-CAPITAL BUDGET -· CAPITAL-.iUPPLEMEHTALs------ o·:oo &.oc o.oo 6.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo 6.00 o.oo ------,:oo PERCENTAGE ADJUST~EHT PER CAPITA OVERALl AVERAGE TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTfl RATE -z-:-oo o-:oo 47rio o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo 6,00 o.oo o.oo 6,00_, __ a:-oo o.oo o.oo ---·----·-·------·--0 • 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 G ~ . . ' ~:· .. ·. ~ • • • e (!) 0 DATE ::: !/2618l TIME = l6t29 _ .STAJE OF AlASKA. ___ OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAnAGEMENT AND BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG --s onCP ERCEtft I [£""'FOREt:AS T;-Oert:-oF"'itifii:;-JUHEaJ PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTEP. UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS 0 c-3 () REVEHUE SOURCES F'i'as F\'36 FY87 -·--··· ·------: FY88 FY49 FY90 FY91 Oil & GAS 2»817 3,043 3,~60 3,450 3,57~ 3,842 l,945 3,604 OTHER ______ 231 ,395_ 577 612 61i8 _ 683 72!-772---.., ~-p·;F ... ro·-o:-t=. 3Js 437 s36 537 636 633 733 n2 IHVESTMEHT 109 U 65 64 &a 71 75 79 e • 0 • • 0 • ••• GF fORWARD 274 830 2,198 3,399 5,777 7,862 10,197 12,622 _!.Q!~l ~_,.7_68 _____ ~,833. ___ 6,637 ___ 8,615 __ lD~7D5 ____ 1J,HlL.-.--l5,68l--~·-~7.,36l--- REVENUE USES --OPER"f.UHG CAPITAl 1,895 576 163 1: 95i 2D9 104 lOAHS SUPPLEMIOTHER --NEIJ"LEGis:---'------20 1 Qt, DO DO DEBT SERVICE G.F. TO P.F. 179 lDD l68 100 TOTA~l~-------·-----~ 2~_3~------~ ,_6 3 9 AVAilABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL --·--·-·-·---·· ~30 z~ 1n DO OD ----·. --------- 2.029 2,111 2,195 222 235 250 111 117 125 111 1!7 125 00 I}O OD 163 15.$ HlS lriD 100 DO 2.1.7 .. 33 ____ a, a Ja _____ z~ a~ J 3.899 5, 777 7,862 00 DO 00 e -2,283 2.3711 2.~69 265 231 291 132 1411 148 -132 _}40 If A 00 00 00 137 122 98 DO DO 00 2 •. 950. 3,054-.l,l6l 10,197 12,622 H,697 00 ·og 00 ··--------- -----------~- - .. ·' .. ..-ft- 0 .. >"" ""' • e • 0 • • e • • • • • • .. ,.,_ • • • • 0 DATE = 8/26/Al TIME = 16129 . • .• _ ·---··-···-. STATE OF ALASKA OFFICE OF Till: GOVERHOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLANHIHG --soTirPERCEHTILE-FORECAsr";-,DEPr':--OF-REV:-;-:iUHE-33-----------····--'"'---·---·-···-· PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GEHERAL FUND ANALYSIS 0 ~-..,._ ·---· ···------ --~ -·-.. -· ··-.. -·-~ ·---__ ., ·--- • REVENUE SOURCES • • • • • • • • ----------------------.FY92~-----FY94 FY95 FYi6 FY97 FY9A OIL I GAS 39~75 3,433 3,399 3,164 2,931 3,083 3,062 OTHER ,..--------319 868 ____ C}ZO '17 5 ____ 1, 035 ___ .1, D 96 ------· 1,16 2 ·------------ --f:F:·Tif"G:-1=, 323 376 925 974 l,D20 1,066 ltll4 IHVEST!IfHT 83 8i 92 97 102 l 07 112 GF :uRWARD 14.697 16,633 18,496 20,308 21,854 23,170 24,537 TOTAL l.L.29!t_ __ ~l,,89.'t 23~.833 ___ 25.,51.9 26,.99;5 28.52.4----29,939.---------------- REVENUE USES --OPi:RATING '2;·s~3---·--2,671-----z;77a --·-.... z;a8·9------·:;~ ijii·_;---·-·-3~ 124 3,249 CAPITAL 315 334 354 376 39/l 422 447 LOANS 157 167 177 188 199 211 223 • SlJPPLEMIOTHE.~R _______ J57 167 177 188 199 .2ll ____ 22l------- --HEtrLEGIS. 00 00 DO DO 00 ao DO 00 DEBT SERVICE 71 63 38 2l 21 17 14 G.F. TO P.F. 00 00 DO 00 DO DO 00 TOTAL 3 27~ .h~OJ ~.~.52.-;.5 ____ 3,,.661i 3.,1523 3.987 4.159--- AVAILABLE CASH l6,6ll VOTED CAPITAL 00 llh496 00 20,308 00 21,854 DO 23,170 00 "'"lVERAGCCROt:JTfnt'A'tl:-tH-cPIT67"1ib~ ·---·AVERAGE-Pfirui.i..tiOifGiiowrtrRi\reTI:'ii5~ 24,531 00 25,8'29 00 AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN~ P£RMAHEHT FUHDt 10.00% GENERAL FUHD nALAHCEI 9.DOX AVERAGE GROWTH/DECLINE: LOANS: 6.00~ DEDT SERVICE: -17.40~ . lhCOME TAX REINSTITUTED IH 1945 TAXlHG EFFORT: 96.~l~ ECONOMIC LIMIT FACTOR REPEALED IH 1988 PERM. FUHD DISTRIDUTIOHS PROGRAM REPEh~EO: DIVlDEHDS:YES IHFLATIOH PROfiFlHG: YES AVG. HOMIHAL OR INFLATION PERCEHIAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVER~ll AVERAGE GROWTII RATE GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL DASE GROWTH RATE GROWTII RATE -oPERATIHG-IlUDGET o·:-oo· 6:-oii------~-z:oo·--------o. oo ------4. oo -----··-·--· • OPER SUPPlEtiEHT.US 0,00 6,DO 0.00 0,00 0.00 OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0,00 6.0D o.o~ 0,00 6.00 --CAPITAL BUDGET ~------0,00 6.0D o .... oo 0,00_._ .6.00 ____ _ ... CAPITJ.CSUPPLEHEHTALS o. oo-----6 :oo o. oo 0. OD a. 00 0 0 0 • . .. • •• • • • • • • • u 0 0 ® ·o • J , '\ ....... ' ~·· " .... ,.,, .. · . ·,•,· .. ·~.~ 0 DATE = 3/261'63 TIME = 16129 0 ......... ' ... ··.:: .. ,~f •. ; ·'~• .. •·:.: .. ·~· _ •• STAT:: .OF. ALASKA--· /".':',,. ~·:i.~\ !JFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR ~ '. : :. ·.;r..;· 0 OFFICE OF MAHAGEt'JEtiT AHD BUDGET 0 .. ~.,._,. . .~ ... :.,··; DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PlAtiNIHG -..·":.·~~~ :~: .... -·-----11. •·'"".: .... " .. 1:~ --saTlrf>ERCEHY lrE-f:tiREt'Asf;-nErr:-oF· REV:-;Ji1ti:Cal :·:. :·.:~ .-; ~~·, ··s: ...... 0 0 : fJ .'!''.!.;.; ... PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER ···<.w·--• ··:-· ·-&-" la i .,.,j.., , • . ··~· \.,fl ~ UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS : • ... :;:. 'J' 0 " .I I\;::>· ....... :1 ·. ~· ··:l.'~.f~ .... -~ •t··~ ..... ;''~t~!~-All COMPOHEHTS IH DEFLATED 19M DOlLARS •·•'IC ;! •-.:,r•• ·~,-~· 4.!-0 :•t:, ·{'1.~~ G REVENUE SOURCES ~·-,,~,:;;~ ~· :;;• :jJ'J:.C.'· • • ·w ~ FY84 FYA5 FY36 FY37 FYlllS FYa9 FY90 FY91 •.!;l!i I· .• : _. .. ·:.:-r-11,~~ 0 • . ~;,:-·· !:l; Oil I GAS 2,317 2,313 2, 929 2,924 z.asH 2,lSCJ3 z,ao8 2.420 ;•:.:t~·: OTHER 231 376 518 519 518 .519 518 u ..... .1·~ .. : ";. .. ,.~ --p :F: -yo-G. . 335 46ft 481 498 509 515 522 525 , .. ~)'..~ l IHVESTMEHT 109 n 59 51f 54 54 53 53 0 . ·~· .. ~~-: .'.·f•:· :' c ,: ~.; !·:-· ,.:::-·, GF FORWARD 274 no 1. 975 3,305 4,619 5,9,0 7,257 8.474 . 1f·r~n.., .... TOTAL 3, 7_6.§ 4J.6.01 5 ...... 96.3 j.30 a .. s6o s • .9la 1..159 11.,..991 '. ·.1: i,:·;,J:: . .. .,..,.:(•:. c e •• : ·' •-:.: J,~ -• , ••. '!-... REVENUE USES • I;}-~ ~;'l:r, ..... , ~ ... -oPtRATtRG 1,895 1.risa 1,323 1, 789 1,755 1,722 1,690 1,653 ~ • .,J•"' /' . .~ -.:,.).• 0 CAPITAL 576 199 200 199 199 199 199 199 0 ~" ·~ ... I.OAHS 168 99 100 99 99 99 99 99 .· .... :. ~ ... -~· .-:·, ..... SUPPLEM/OTHER 20 99 00 99. 99 ~-9 99 H ~ ~.. .., f --NEIJ LEGis:-.. 00 00 00 ~ 00 00 00 Ot> OG .. ~·.;:::iy,~· e DEBT SERVICE 179 160 146 131 118 103 a6 65 0 . ~· .. • ..... G. F. TO p. F. 100 00 ·JO 00 . ···:t:~ .,.., 95 89 34 00 : .····-..:·--=:-.. ... __ T_(!JAL ~.t.2~.l3 ~t-5.1~ ~t-.46 D 2.L~05 2...274 ~!/225 2 .. 176 2,..l2.l :.tt..,•'''• • . ' .J' ;:.., ··..-: .. :~;r-, ·. .. :.~'." ~-0 AVAILABLE CASH 830 2,093 3,503 4,896 6,286 7 ,c;n 8,982 ~,367 G :;~~~~';.[ VOTED CAPITAL 00 DD DO DO 00 00 00 00 "f"! •• <, ..... r.-,··1}' .. ; ~':"{:.::_~:)~/ . .~.\fl,·f, 0 Q . ··xt~, ......... • * .... ~ .. •tif ... / ~· ·~· !)., ... '~ 0 \·::,. .. !fl .... 0 .... '"""· . ,. ... ~ ...... , .. •• ... r ' *.. •/ .·. :·t: .:~ 0 0 T ....... . . ':':': ' .. ~ • •' I~ • ··~·1 '~ .~· .. ;-.:,'' ·~·· 0 0 •• .;'t4\:: *, ,: : ·' •'J.t '1~ > '' ~:#:•·; ... ';·-i:,i fit --------··-e -0 .... ·--~.~~··· ft ~'/;.' " 0-- 0 • • • DATE = 31'26183 TIME : 16129 --------:· SlUE f)F ALASKA··-··~----­OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHC DUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHNIHG ---soTH"'PERCENTllE-HlRECA~T-, tiei>r:-·oF 'kev-.-;JiJtHCa3· ' PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS --------------------.ALL CONPOHEHTS IN DEFLATED 19M DOLLARS u --··-------·-··---------- 4t REVENUE SOURCES ------------;;FY92 _____ FY9J..------;F~Y·9~ ~-----=.-----------------FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 • OIL I GAS 2.2~1 2,051 1,916 1~682 1 1 ~95 1,~59 1,367 OTHER ..-------519 ____ 519. ~18 518 519. ____ 518 5H----------r:f':l'oG'7F. sz~ 52J·'-----521---:--sn ____ 511 5o~ ~97 IHVESTMEHT 52 52 52 Si 51 50 50· GF FORWARD 9,309 9,939 10,426 10,799 10,964 10,966 10,956 TOTAL 12&07 1.3.«-oas U.t5.35 u ... su l.~5.1i2 n~soo lJ,.l901----------• • REVENUE USES • • • --ol> ERA ll NG 1. 626-----.. -i, 59 ~---·--T~· 56 6' -i ;·53 6 1, !.' o 7 i: 41 9· -·-1: 4 51 CAPITAL 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 LOAHS 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 SUPPLEMI'OTHER 99 99 .99 99 99 9-9 99 --Hew--u:~xs: :=-----""'"'oo oo oo _____ oo·-----oo _____ oo oo DEBT SERVICE 44 37 21 12 10 08 06 G.F. TO P.F. 00 00 DO OD 00 00 0~ 00 TOTAL 2 071 2.r.P.J) 1..,_987 1 .. .9"4_, _._9ll! lAISIS7 ,.!\51----·------ AVAILABLE CASH VOTED <!APITAL 10,535 DD 11,052 00 11,622 11,624 DO 00 11,613 00 11,533 DO -AVERAGE'""1JROI.JtH~AYetlrtfit: 6. dox AVERlG'EfiorULA'T'IOHGRDWTII RATEr l. 05X .. AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMANENT FUND: 10.00~ GENERAL FUND BALANCEs 9.DOX ~ AVERAGE GROWTH/DECLIHE: lOANS: 6.00X DEBT SERVICE: -17.4DX INCOME TAX REIHSTITUTEtl IH 1935 lAXIHG_EFFURTl 96.~3~ ·-•. ~cp.~01_1I~ .. ~.II'! I 't.f~~_TOR R.E.~E{I.~ED .JN 1988 ·--·· _I;' ERI:'\ .••• J:UNI)_DI.S.T.R.IDUTIOHS .. P.ROGRAN. REPEALED: .• DIVIDENDS t)'ES • 1HFLA TlDH PROOFlHG: ••. YES, __ _ • AVG. HOMIHAL OR INFL~TIOH PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER C~PITA OVERAll AVERAGE GROWTII RATE GROWTH RATE USED TO REAL BASE GROWTH RATE GROWTI'i' RATE .. OPERA TIHG -liUOGET--------o:-o o-----67oii--------_-;;2-. 00,-----------:o:·o 0-------4-:0 0 •• ·----·-- 0 OPER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD OTHER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 -CAPITAL BUDGET 0.00 6.00 0_._00 0.00 6.00 __________ _ --cAPITACSUPPlEHEHTAl: 07lJD 67oo o.oo o.oo o.oo 0 • 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ,, • • • • • • • • • 0 • • 0 DATE : 3.126/'lSl STATE OF ALASKA ---------~-------------OFFICE OF TliE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING c. _ _g -~.r.--- --30~ REVEHUE-fORECAST ;-DEPT:-:oF-REV7;JUHe .. a·3 PREPARED llY THOMAS P. CHE·STER ·------·------·-···-------·-------------·------·- UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANAlYSIS All COMPONENTS IN NOMINAL DOLlARS REVEHUE SOURCES Oil & GAS OTHER --p. F .-T(JG. ltlVESTMEHT GF FORWARD TOTAL REVEHUE USES --oPERATIRG CAPITAL 'i'a4 2,666 231 334 109 274 J,_H~ 17395 576 164 FY85 2.774 395 431 a: 677 4_,_412_ -i;95i 209 104 FY86 FY87 z, no 3,121 577 613 523 575 65 64 1. 772 J,lll6 :;_,,924 1.L559 i;oz9 2-;n1 222 235 111 117 LOAHS SUPPLEM/OTHER -wet.n: ect s·:--·:.:.------20. __ 104 ___ 111 ___ ,117 oo--oo oo oo oesr SERV.ICE G.F. HI P.F. TOTAl AVAilABLE CASH VOTED CAPITAL 179 100 2:?:!! 677 00 -··---·----·-·4c----........ _ 16~ 163 100 lOD 8_6_3_9 2 ,_]_la 1.17~ 3,1&6 00 00 ------------------------------------------------------·-------- 155 100 2r.ll33 .. 4,7<!1 00 FYaa 3,227 648 613 63 4.7~1 9_, zas z,f95 250 125 25 00 148 00 2r.3~l &.441 00 -~Ya9 Fno fY91 3,39ll. 3,263 2,955 688 .na '1?2 66() 701 740 71 75 79 6. 441 li,30ll 10,024 1~259_ 13, Dal 14.57 2:283 2,3H 2,46 9 265 281 297 132 140 148 :sz_ lllO ., 11 00 00 00 137 122 93 00 00 00 2 •. 950 J,..osa ___ l ,163 a,Joa 10 '024 11.~09 DO 00 00 -----··----------·-·-----------------------------------------------·------·-----------------• .. • •• . • • • t • • • • .· 0 • DATE : ll1261Al TIME : 16126 ----------------------.: -· STATE OF. AlASKA_. ______________________ _ OFFICE OF TtiE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MAiiAGENEHT AND DllDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING • • PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER • UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS ALL COMPOHEHTS IH HOMIHAL DOLLARS • REVEHUE SOURCES FY92 FY93 FY9~ FY95 FY96 FY'n FY94 • OIL I GAS ~.442 .:!, 694 2,575 2,471 2,257 2,26D ~,293 OTHER 819 368 92D 975 035 --LD96 1.162 --P7i=:-ToG:l=. '171 Alit 35D 336 919 95Z 985 • INVESTMENT 8.3 81 n 97 . 102 107 112 GF FORWARD ll,409 12,660 13,722 14,635 15,401 15,!92 16,321 TOTAL ~-~'-?~J 17. ,,126 18 ... 16. u ... 066 !1.7.15 20.3oa ___ zo.a76 • REVENUE USES --oPEUnRt; 2,563 2,671 2,773 ?,839 3,0D4 3.124 3,2H • CAI'ITAL 315 334 354 376 39! 422 447 LOANS 157 167 177' ua 199 211 223 SUPPL EM/OTHER 157 167 177 188 ?9 11 223 --HEIJ"LEGls7 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 DO e. DEBT SERVICE 71 63 Ja 23 21 17 H G.F. TO r.F. DO 00 00 00 00 Oil 00 ·• TOTAl 3,271 ~L~O.l 3J_525 3.1.66~ 3,823 . 3 .. .987~ 4.~59 • AVAILABLE CASH 12,660 13,722 1:4,635 v~.~o1 15,892 16,321 16,716 VOTED CAPITAL DO 00 00 DO co 00 00 AVER'.\GE-GRO~TH'-RJ:lt'l'frert-, -r:oo:c -AVERAGE(POPULAfioH-GROWTifRATEll·;os~ ·----··,---- • AVERAGE RATE OF RETURHz PERMANENT FUHDr 10.00~ GENERAL FUND ~ALAHCEr 9.00~ AVERAGE G~OWTH/DECLIHEr LOAHS: 6.00~ DEnT SERVICE! -17.40~ IHCONE TAX REINSTITUTED IN 1935 TAXING_EFFOR(t 96.~lX ECOHDMIC lIMIT FACTOR REPEALED lH 193.a_e_ERtt .• J.UND __ D_IS_T_RI.BUJ.IOt{S_f.RO.AR.M'LREP.EALEI)LDIY.IDEHDS.:.YES_IHFLATIOH .PROOflHG:_'tf,::a.S--- • AVG. NOMINAL GROWTH RATE llPERAT!}f'(jBUDGE...----------,. :oo ~ OPER SUPPLEMEHTALS .. OTHER SUPPLEMENTALS --CAPITAL BUDGET --cAriTAl-SUPPL"EMEHTXnls,---- 0 o.oo o.oo 0.00 -o:oo OR ItiFL.HIOH GROWTH RATE USED 6.oii 6.01) r..oo 6.110 6.00 PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA O!JERALL AV~~RAGE TO REAL DASE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE -2:06 o.oo 4.00 o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo 6.00 o .... o 0 0,00 6,00 o.oo o.oo o.oo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • 0 0 0 • 0 • '• 0 0 0 • 0 0 DATE : U26.1Al TIME = 16:26 -· ···-... ·-----·----·~ .. STATE OF .. ALASKA.·-·---------·-------·-··-------- OFFitE OF TilE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AHD BUDGET DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG 30~ REVEHUE FORECAST~"DEPT::·oF REv.;·:JUHE !l--·······--.. -···--···-----·· ··-----.. --···"- PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER -- REVENUE S.flURCES OIL & GAS OTHER --P:F·.-rtr·c·:-.:. IHVESTMEHT GF FORWARD TOTAL REVENUE USES F"i'a~t 2,666 231 :Sl4 109 274 3..L~15 FY35 2,642 376 460 7! 645 §..202. UHRESTklCTED GENERAL FUHD ANALYSIS All COMPONENTS IH DEFLATED 1984 DOLLARS f:Y36 ;:y-,;1 FY8A FY39 2,671 2,645 2,581 2,563 .513 519 SUI 19 474 41.\7 494 497 59 54 54 54 1,592 2, 700 3,175 4,859 5..t..322 6...4 0 7. 7 •• 42~ 8.493 FY90 FY91 2,325 1,984 .518 18 499 497 53 Sl 5,913 6, 730 9 .. .310 9.1A -·-·---· . ·---·-·-··-------·oPERATING 1~895----1;358 ·---·1;823 1,789 1,155 1,122 1,690 1,658 CAPITAl 576 199 200 199 199 199 199 199 LOAHS 168 99 100 99 99 99 99 99 SUPPLEM/OTHER 20 99 100 99·----99. 99 99.----99-...------·HEIJ lEGis:-·------· 00------00.. 00 DO 00 00 00 00 DEBT SERVICE 179 160 146 131 11~ lDJ 86 65 G.F. TO P.F. 100 ?5 ll9 84 00 00 00 00 .. T.«?~~k ........ -·---·· _____ 2, 938 •. ___ . __ 2 1 51~ 2.r.460 ____ 2,.4D5_. ____ 2,2H._. ___ 2.22.5.---··2•176._, __ z,l2J ___ _ AVAILABLE CASH 677 1,638 2,862 •. 4,0112 VOTED CAPITAL 00 00 00 o·o -. --·· .. ·--··----------- -·-·--·· . .,_ ..... -· ______ _, .. ,--~--· -··· ·--. 5,150 00 6,268 00 7,134 00 7,659 00 ------··----·-----·---------- -·-----------------------------------~-----------·-------------------- -··· ..• -·---·.. -·~T.:.··-·-·----·---------· ---·--------------- 0 0 0 DATE = 8.1261'83 TIME = l6 '26 -------------------------,.··· SJATE Jlf. ALASKA·-·-.,-----------------------·---OFFICE OF TilE GOVERNOR 0 OFFICE OF MAHAGEMEHT AHD DUDGET DIVISIOH OF STRATEGIC PLAHHIHG --:sorREVEHUE-FOREClST';-nepr.-oF-REIJ:-;-:.lUiiE-33------------------ ca PREPARED BY THOMAS P. CHESTER 0 0 • e • • • . ·, • REVENUE SOURCES OIL & GAS OTHER --r:F:-ro-cr.- IHVESTMEHT GF FORWARD TOTAL REVENUE USES FV92 1,aoo 519 492 52 7.226 lD I D 90 FY93 1,610 519 4~6 52 7,565 l.ILL2.J_3 --oPERATING 1,626 l,Sc;6 CAPITAL 199 H9 LOANS 99 ~9 ALL UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND ANALYSIS COMPOHENTS:XH-nEFLATED 1984 DOLLARS FY94 FY95 FY96 1,451 l,J14 1,132 513 518 512 479 "i71 461 52 51 51 7,135 7,743 7,727 l.O.L2~7. lQ.....l.l9. 9 ·8.91 1,566 1,536 1,507 199 199 199 99 99 99 SUPPLEM/OTHER 99 99 ____ _ --HetrLEGIS. DO 00 99 99 99 DEBT SERVICE 44 37 G.F. TO P.F. 00 00 TOTAL 2, 071 ~.t.Ql~----- DO : 00 00 21 12 10 DO 00 DO 1J_93.7 1~.~~~ 1,916 AVAILABLE CASH 8,019 !,199 8,250 8,190 7,973 VOTED CAPITAL C.d 0,0 OD -: 00 00 FY97 1.069 512!. 450 50 7.521 9,612 1,479 199 99 99 00 oa 00 L81H 7, 725 00 FY9A 1,024 519 440 so. 7,237 9.#-32 1,451 199 99 .99 00 06 09 l .. A57 7.464 00 -AVE~AGE-CJ:!O~Tfl-RATE-IH-CPii-!I :·o 0~ --·--AVERAGE. roPUL.ATIOH ~ GRDWTH-RArira-r:·os~----------··------- GO AVE~AGE RATE OF RETURN: PERMAHEHT FUHD: lO.OOX GEHERAL FUND BALANCE• 9.00X 0 AVEf'AGE GROIHti/DECLIHEl LOANS• 6. DO~ DEDT SERVICE I -17 ,It OX IHCOME TAX REIHSTI7UTED Ifl 19115 11\XING_EFFORT• 96.UX -_E_C_!l_ILC!,!!J~.J.Jt!H_f ACTQ.!L}_gf.S!\.~.~.IL.~~-~ 9llll __ e_Ef{.tt_. -.EUIU~ .Dl_SJR_I.D.~T_I.O.H~_f.R.DG.Rll.ti_REeE~l.~D-• P.l.'l.l DEHOS LYES __ J tiFLA Tl ON. t'ROUi=lHG '·-YES---··-- AVG. NOI'1INAL GROWTit RATE -oPERATIHG-BUDGEr--------------- OPER SUPPLEMEHTALS 0 OTIIE.q SUPPLEMEHTALS --CAPITAL BUDGET --cAPITACSUPPLEMEHTArS ______ _ 0 o:oo l!,OO o.oo o.oo o:-oo OR IHFLATIOH GROWTJI RATE USED &:oo 6.00 6.00 6;oo ~.-; 0 0 PERCENTAGE ADJUSTMENT PER CAPITA OVEf<All AVERAGE TO REAl DASE GROWTH RATE GROWTII RATE -z.oo o:-oa ~ :oo -o.oo o.oo o.o~ o.oo o.oo 6.00 0.00 o ... 00 ~.~o o7oo o.oo 0 .oo -~-·---------------·-------------------------·----------Q 0 . , .. : .. 0 0 0 0 " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 c 0 0 tl - IZ.. 8 'f . l!/P(:.~w&-~OG(;"f" Grto~ s i Dl'f>J..t G~ ~,; . stfV l / 7() ./ 9/ 6?. I 'B .r .€C.OAJo,.., '-'-i.J,_,I,.-~7T>It A?:?" a79"Lca:'b I~ 19t?B :DI t/ I 1J~'l>S f<'-rpc:m.. ~ lllrl.trnot-~ P~oFII\IG A/o.,-~.at"L6r~ .f"lt~~1NG. ~llG.c--r C.t.o-w.r /. 6.J .. P£fl Cmol'r~t; ( flt=~tt..) C/fl' ·'nt\.. ~])c:;.c:-r Gtedws W1r-H /IV~to,/ ... ·~ .• Tl'r)l.t"' G. e~~tt.:r Cf t, 7o Eco,..,oru c. L,,...,, r F;tc.V'Q!t 'i?:7e:?tt..t:s-r> 1~ 1988 fi;"X,....,I'nJilriT r-<,.;b "l.>lvl Dc..r;../D .S i'Ef7'~~t:""'D