HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA1387n' \
.
. ·. .....
n· ...
,. · ...
.
·r·o:a.; .
. 1
M .. · :1 ~ l.;
{··•-\ l
. ~-~.L
(
f • l
J
l! i
f
.,,J
lJ
[J
u
u
j
[}{]£[ffi~£c~(ID£@@@ f.
Susitna Joint Venture
Document Number
!38_1
Please Return To
DOCUMENT CONTROL
'
t
I
' r
ALASKA POHER AU-:HORITY
LIBRARY COPIES
PLEASE DO NOT REMOVE FROM OFFICE!
-----· ~---·~ -· ,_, ---~ ... ~----~·--· ~
AI Ill
ALASlv\ PO~IER AUTHORITY
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
INTERN.!-\L REVIE\~ BOARD MEETING #2
STATUS OF TASKS 4., 5 .AND 6
OCTOBER 14J 1980
APA REVIEW I1EETit~G
STATUS OF GENE~P,TION PLANNING STUDIES
OCTOBER 15~ 1980
NO !f.S ON r1EETlNGS
Acres American Incorporated
1000 Liberty Bank Building
Main at Court
Buffalo. New York 14202
Telepho1ne (716) 853-7525
' l
I
l
1
I
I ' l
1
~ .... t -~,_, .·
I, .
' '-.,
::_._.···. ' . ~
'
:J
I ,·
I
I
,'I
I
I
I
I
I
, I
I
J
,.
AIJ\.S"I.\ PO~IER AUTHORITY
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
INTERNAL REVIEW BOARD MEETING #2
STATUS OF TASKS 4~ 5 AND 6
OCTOBER 14~ 1980
APA REVIEW MEETING
STATUS OF GENERATION PLANNING STUDIES
OCTOBER 15~ 1980
NOTES ON MEETINGS
(
[ .
(
(
(
(
I
(
I'
I
(
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1 -AGENDA ---~------------------------------------~-~~----------------~ 1
2 -NOTES ON MEETING -October 14, 1980 --------------------------------4
Introduction --~--~-~-------------~-----~-~-----------------~~------5
Review of Geotechnical Studies -------------------------------------6
Seismic Studies ----------------------------------------------------8
Arch Dam at Devil Canyon -----~~--------------~---------------------9
Tunnel Sc·hemes ------... ------~-------------------------------------------9
Planning Studies --~----------~--~---------------~----------~-------10
Conclusions --~------~--~----~-------~------~--~------------~-------11
Tables 1 through 5 ..... --.. --------..,-----------------------------------------1.2
Figures 1 through 13 --~·~-----------------------------~--~~---------20
3 -COPIES OF PRESENTATION VIEWGRAPHS ----------------------------------34
4 -NOTES ON r~1EETlNG -October 15, 1980 --------------------------------55
Primary Objectives ---------------------~---------------------------56
Introduction -------~------~----------~~---~-~---~-------------~----56
Analyses of Thermal Alternatives -----------------------------------57
Hydro Alternatives Analyses ----------------------------------------57
Environmental Screening --------------------------------------------58
Review of the ISER Forecast ----------------------------------------58 Conservation and Load t-1anagement -----------------------------------59
Generation Planning Studies ------------------~-------~-------------59
Conclusions -------------------~--~-----~--~--~--~~---~-------~-----60
ATTACHf4ENTS
A -Thermal Alternatives
B -Hydro Alternatives
C -Environmental Screening
D.-Load Analysis
E -Generation Planning Work Plan
F -APA Draft Feasibility Study Planning Studies
[<
II
[
[
[
[
(
(
l
[
I
,~' II 'il '
(
(
(
.(
I
I
I
1. AGENDA
.·~ [
...
(
rr
[
[
[
[
(··~~·
.•
I
(
(
(
I
I
I
I
I
I
·~
- 2 September 30, 1980
OCTOBER 14 MEETING
~
J ' Location: Board Room -Niagara Falls office ..
To Attend: APA -R. Mohn
Agenda:
8:30
9:00
10:30
10:45
12:00
1:00
3:00
3:15
J. Lawrence, J. Hayden Project Managers -
Task Supervisors -
Project Team -
I. Hutchison~ V. Singh, P. Tucker
G. Krishnan, f<. Curtis
Internal Review Board -
\~orking Group -
H. Eichenbaum, D. MacDonald, L. Wolofski
S. Thompson, A. Tawil, A. Burgess,
M. Vanderburgh, J. Sinclair
Tooic
Introduction (to meetings on 14th & 15th)
Seismic Studies and Geotechnical Investigations
(Tasks 4 & 5)
Geotechnical & Seismic Design Criteria
Lunch
Engineering Design Studies (Subtasks 6.01-6.06)
Break
Design Studies Continuation & Wrap Up
•
Speaker(s)
J. ,Lawrence/J. Hayden
V. _Singh/S. Thompson
---
V. Singh
I. Hutchison
__ ....
I. Hutc'hi s·on/
J. Lawrence/J. Hayden
(
[
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
.-
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
October 15!h Meeting
Time and Location -
Wednesday, October 15, 1980, 8:30 {all day)
Conference Room, Buffalo Office
Buffalo, New York
Attendance --
Acres American: J. Lawr·ence
J. Hayd~m
Agenda
Time
8:30
9:30
10:15
10:30
11:30
12:30
1:15
3:00
4:00
Moderator:
C. Debelius
I. Hutchison
P. Tucker (morning)
G. Krishnan (morning)
S. Diener
A. Simon
P. Hoover
K. Young
P. Vee (afternoon)
Topic
Generation Planning Parameters . .
Thermal Alternatives (6.32)
Break
Hydro Alternatives (6.33)
Environmental Screening
Lunch
Load Forecast Review (6~34)
Conservation and Load Management
Work Plan-Generation Planning
John D. Lawrence
- 3
APA: R. t·1ohn
Speaker
P. Tucker
P. Tucker
Po Tucke\"
K. Young
P. Vee
(6.35) P. Hoover
P. Hoover
,[
[
(
(
I
I
(
I
I.
I
••
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
••
2. NOTES ON MEETINS -OCTOBER 14, 1980
(Figures 1 through 14 attached to these notes are
copies of viewgraphs presented to illustrate points
discussed in the notes. Copies of other viewgraphs
used during presentations are attached in Section 3.
A selection of 35mn slides was also used as
background during the presentation).
(
(
r·
(
I
I
I
I
I
I
·I
I
I
I
I
I
I·
I
I
t"' 5
Susitna Hydroelectric Project
· Internal Review Board f4eeting #2
October 14, 1980
November 5, 1980
P5700.13.10
P5700.13
Acres Consuiting Services Office, Canada
Summary
PRESENT:
R. r~ohn ) APA
JoO. Lawrence )
Ce Debelius )
J. Hayden )
I. Hutchison )
V. Singh ) AAI
P. Tucker )
S. Thompson )
G. Krishnan )
R. Curtis )
H. Eichenbaum )
D. fw1acDona 1 d )
L. Wolofsky ) ACS
A. Tawil )
A. Burgess )
INTRODUCTION
The key topics for discussion were outlined by John Lawrence. These included:
a) Review of Geotechnical studies, including preliminary results of the
Summer 1980 and discussion of future investigation.
b) Review of seismic studies. In particular, the 1980 preliminary·work,
work proposed for 1981 and the determination of levels of acceptable risk
as requested by Woodward-Clyde.
c) Arch dam concepts and factors affecting the selection of the dam type at
Devil Canyon.
d) Review of alternative hydroelectric developments to the Devil Canyon-
t~atana concept within the Susitna Basin.
e) Key topics that should be discussed with the Acres review panel the week
of October 20, 1980o
·m
11
~
·I!
~
..
. 11
'IJ
;~ tt
.I
I
:1·;···· ~ i
"
.
I '
I '
. 1
., .
I
I
I
I
- 6
REVIEW OF GEOTECHNICAL STUDIES
Previous geotechnical studies have included boreholes, trenches, and/or seismic
lines at Denali, Vee:. Watana, and Devil Canyon sites. Current studies by Acres
have been limited to the Devil Canyon and Watana sites. For each of these two
sites a brief revie~\! of previous studies \"las given and available results of
the summer 1980 pr·ogram were presented with discussion of the winter 1980
program ..
WATANA SITE
The extent of the Corps of Engineers 1978 drilling program fs shown in Figure 1.
Areas of ~oncern identified by the Corps of Engineers included:
a) a buried valley approximately in the location northeast of the proposed
spillway;
b) shear zones at approximately the upstream and downstream toes of the
rockffll dam.
It was noted that the final Corps report stated that the spillway probably
should be moved due to the buried valley. The bedrock at the t~atana site is aii
Andesite and Granodiorite. It is generally a good quality rock.
The locations of the suggested borrow sources were shown and material avail-
ability was discussed. The gradation curve for the impervious material
(Borrow Area D) \"Jas discussed and it was agreed that it v1ould most likely
prove satisfactory.
The summer 1980 drilling program at laJatana is shown in Figure 2. The purpose
of this program was to confirm locations of features identified from previous
studies and to assist·in locating the dam and spillway structures in future
design work. As a result, boreholes did not necessarily line up with
structures proposed by the Corps.
Seismic lines were used to determine the location (and shape} of the buried
valleys. At present, information from the seismic lines is not available.
Three boreholes have been co~pleted'this summer. These were:
BH-2 located in fingerbuster shear zone on right abutment;
BH-6 located in right abutment near downstream of toe of slope;
BH-8 located above proposed location of powerhouse in left abutment.
Borehole 2 showed a sheared zone to be located between hole depths 90 and
160 feet. The hole intersected the shear zone contact at an angle of 300 to
400. Difficulty in drilling was encountered due to hole collapse, however
the feature was groutable. The drilling program did not uncover anything that
.wot(fd seriously affect the feasibility of the dam site.
Four areas have been identified which will require further investigations in
this winter's and next summer's program. These are:
a) upstream shear zone approximately perpendicular to river;
b) downstream shear zone approximately perpendicular to river;
c) buried channel in right abutment;
d) depth of overburden in channel.
·r·· .. I ·,
. .J,
.. -"'·
I
'-·
.[
·r
[
.
.
[
' ..
•'IJ· . .,
~ l
(
. Jr
I
;(
:'1
.I
I
:I
E
;If
I
- 7
The winter program will be finalized after review with the review panel next
week.
DEVIL CANYON
Previous-field investigations at Devil Canyon were performed by the USBR in
1957. A shear zone has been speculated under the saddle dam in the left
abutment. A series of joint sets and shear zones were identified perpendicular
to the river. It has also been suggested by Acres geologists that a series of
open joints may be found parallel with the river in the left abutment.
As with the Watana site, the 1980 investigation program at Devil Canyon was
confirmatory in nature. Three boreholes have been completed to date (see
Figure 3):
SH-1 located in right abutment near proposed powerhouse;
BH-2 located in right abutment to show jointing pattern;
BH-4 located in .auxiliary dam region and angled to intersect the suspected
shear zone.
Boreholes 1 and 2 showed excellent quality rock. Borehole 4 failed to identify
the suspected shear zone. The dam site bedrock consists of a Argulite rock.
Although strength testing has not been completed, it is not believed that the
rock will show directionC\1 strength proper.ties •
The possible location of open joints in the left abutment \'/as identified as a
major concern. These joints could lead to large block failures. f4apping of
the canyon walls will be very difficult with a large amount of rigging or
technical climbers required. It was suggested that an estimate of the potential
for such occurrences could be obtained by observations of block failures up-
stream and downstream of the site. This would also lead to indications
regarding ~he seismicity. This exercise wi11 be pa·rt of the air photo inter-
pretation performed by R&M Consultants.
The winter drilling program as proposed by the Alaska office consisted of 5
drillholes along the base of the canyon. It has been proposed by Stu Thompson
that three of these holes would be extremely costly due to access problems and
.could be rep1aced by two ·boreholes slightly·uP,stream and ·angled-under the
. river. These would detennine the· existanc-e or nonexistance of ·a sh.ear zone or
fau 1 t under. the l"i ver.
It was discussed whether adits would be required prior to submission of the
FERC application. These adits would be used to determine the physical
condition, distribution and character of the geologic features, and deformation
properties of the abutments. It was pointed out that for any dam, adits would
be necessary before actual construction and therefore the inve.stment would be a
matter of timing and associated risks. It was decided that:
a) Planning would commence immediately for construction of adits in the 1981
season if the decision for adits is finalized. This matter is to be
reviewed by the panel next week.
b) Design studies would continue with detennination of the economics associated
with an arch dam as opposed to other dam types.
-. _·,
~r·
.. -' .. .
~r·
r
r
I~
·r.
,fr
:~·
'~
~E
lt
'.:fliT .. i .:. .. .
in.~ l >! . .
[c
·l
.r.f ·l
l
l
l
- 8
c) A final go-ahead decision would be made prior to award of any adit
contract based on (b) above.
It was pointed out that slightly upstream of the dam site at the horseshoe
bend in the river there is an abrupt change in geology that could be associated
with a fault. This was discussed further when the seismic material was
presented. It is near tnis bend that an aggregate source has been identified.
SEISf4IC STUDIES
The status of the 1980 program for Task 4 was presented as follows:
4.01
4.02
4.03
4 .. 04
4.05
4.06
4.07
Review of Available Data
Short Term Seismologic
Monitoring Program
Preliminary RIS
Remote Sensing Image Analysis
Seismic Geology Reconnaissance
Evaluation and Repo.rting
Prel irninary Ground r~oti on
Studies
Completed in June.
Completed in field in Sept.
Review in progress to be
completed by Dec., 1980.
Historical record assembled
and compared with Watana.
Devil Canyon task to be
completed by Dec., 1980.
All work (except low sun
angle photo) completed in
June. 3-4 weeks effort and
p·hoto next year {inclement
weather factor).
Completed in Aug., culminating
in a site review meeting.
Has begun~ To be completed by
Dec., 1980. (acceptable risk
under review by AAI,.
Has begun. To be completed by
Dec., 1980.
The Devil Canyon and Hatana sites are located between the Denali Fault and the
Castle Mountain Fault. Both of these are major faults and are considered
active. Several smaller fault like features are located much closer to the
two sites. Woodward-Clyde have identified all lineaments within the region
and have ranked them in order of activity and priority for further evaluation
where questions exist as to their activity.
Three lineasments are located near the bvo dam sites. The first crosses the
river just upstream of Devil Canyon Dam at the horseshoe bend in the river.
The second is known as the Susitna Fault which runs in a ENE direction artd
crosses the Susitna River approximately 3 miles downstream of the Watana site.
The third 1 ineament; has been called the Talkeetna Fault and intersects the
Susi tna Raul t.
'
:(
,. -· :r
·[
:[· ..
:r
. ·.
r ' ~r·· f ; . '
[
[
'( I ,
,' ~'·
;E·· ' ' . \'
. I . , '. ',
'[ ' . ~. l''
~ ..
- 9
A letter tabled from \~ood\vard-Clyde requesting guidance on the level of
acceptable risk that they should assume in their studies generated intensive
discussion. It was agreed that Woodward-Clyde would be approached as to why
they need this information' and further discussion be held during the external
review board meeting. Consultants should be made aware of the question prior
to the meeting to allow meaningful discussions.
ARCH DAM AT DEVIL CANYON
The evaluation of an arch dam at Devil Canyon (Subtask 6.04) has to date
consisted of a historical review in which several of the world's highest
arch dams have been tabulated (Table 1) and shown graphically in terms of
height and width (Figure 4). It can be seen that from a precedent experience
point of view an arch dam at Devil Canyon would not be unusual.
Results of a preliminary 'finite element dynamic analysis (Figures 5 and 6)
showed that a thin arch dam as proposed by the USBR would have stress problems
not only for the thermal loadings, but also due to earthquake loadings.
It was suggested that an attempt should be made to obtain and check the
analysis performed by the USSR and the Corps of Engineers. Acres developed a
gravity arch design which was tabled. Preliminary analysis indicated that
structurally, this is feasible even when abutment displacements of 2 em are
allowed to occur. Stresses (Figures 7 and 8) are within or near allowable ·
.limits with the exception of the thermal loading. Stresses due to the thermal
loading would generally be less than shown. Analysis was based on a -409F
downstream face and a 320F upstream face with a 1 ineai" gradient between.
Results of arch· dam studies to date show nothing has yet emerged that would
make an arch darn technically infeasible. The question of whether to proceed
with arch dam design and the requisite geotechnical exploratory work (adits)
is therefore an economic choice with consideration of the associated risks.
The proposed gravity arch dam layout was tabled. A layout for a impervious
core rockfiJl dam is currently being developed. Cost estimates will be
prepared to aid in the decision of whether or not to proceed with geotechnical
investigations and design of an arch dam. It was pointed out that definite
problems exist with either a rockfill or arch dam, but none were identified
that would preclude the feasibility of either type dam •
TUNNEL SCHEt·1ES
As an alternative to a high dam at Devil Canyon, the possibility of a tunnel
from an upstream point has been considered. Four tunnel schemes have been
considered as shown in Figure 9 and Figure 10. Three of these sch~mes invoive
a 29 mile long tunnel from the Watana site to Devil Canyon with the fourth
involving a shorter 15 mile tunnel from a re-regulation dam approximately
midway between Watana and Devil Canyon.
;he energy available from these schemes depends to a large part on tunnel size
and whether the scheme will be used for peaking or base load (see Table 2). A
discrepancy was pointed our in that the peaking scheme had a lovJer installed
capacity than the base load scheme. This needs verification.
... -10
n~ PLANNING STUDIES
. . ~-'
' .
•••
-
••
..
! l .
.. 1 .
,.. . . -~-
. i ~
r ·'-"'""'
·' ' .,·,.~ ·( , __
. ~. .~~~ ' .. .._, .....
Previous Studies
Studies have been performed on the development of the hydroelectric potential
of the Upper Susitna River since approximately 1950. These studies have
collectively identified a total of 12 sites above ca:d Creek, 11 of which are
on the main branch of the. Susitna and one on the Tyone River which is a
tributary. The location of these sites are shown ·jn Figure 11 with a profile
shown in Figure 12.
Current Studies
The. general approach for current studies is shown in Figure 13. A preliminary
screening deleted $ites below Portage Creek {Gold Creek and Ols_on) from
further study due to environmental concerns in particular the effect a dam in
this region would have on salmon fisheries. Devils Creek was assumed for
planning purposes to be represented by High·Devil Canyon and therefore
eliminated from the planning model studies. Similarly Butte Creek was con-
sidered to be the same as Denali. Tyone was eliminated due to its small
potential.
The environmental aspects of the various sites.were presented (see Table 3).
It was suggested that these be reviewed by the Susitna Steering Committee in
Alaska.
Hydroelectric development arrangements with cost estimates have been prepared
for the following sites and crest elevations:
Crest Arrangement
Site Elevation . Dam Type Pr·epared B.¥.
Devil Canyon 1,310 Concrete gravity Acres
Devil Canyon 1,455 Concrete gravity Corps
High Devi 1 Canyon 1,755 Concrete faced rockfill Acres
Watana 2,060 Rockfill Acres
Watana 2,195 Rockfi11 Corps
Susitna III 2,215 Rockfill Acres
Susitna III 2,375 Rockfill Acres
Vee 2,310 Rockfill USSR
Vee 2,360 Rockfi 11 USSR
r~aclaren 2,410 Rockfi11 Acres
Denali 2,552 Earthfi 11 Corps
The hydropower potential at the various sites is shown in Table 4 with
preliminary estimates of unit costs for energy. To give an indication of
relative costs, the average annual energy was plotted against the cost of a
project (see Figure 14). Preliminary indications are that High Devil Canyon
may be the cheapest, single development, but when full basin development is
considered, Devil Canyon and Watana would be cheaper.
. '
'.
:r
r·,
lr·~ t ; .
···-
i[
-11
The computer models are summarized in Table 5. These will be used to select
the optimum development plans for capacity requirements of approximately 400 MW,
800 MW and 1600 MW.
QLNCLUSIONS
f[ .. ··~.. The conclusions of the discussions were outlined by John Lawrence. These were
i as follows: .
~·r-.. .. . ' '
l '
:r: i. '
' .
r ;(·o:::; I·
' < ~' ~ i
·-'
j !(""1' .. · ' ;
,(
i[!'
' .
i .~.~ ~~
!(
t[
i .
[
<
I -
;(
•
1:.
L i~-
1
. a) Geotechnical Exploration -The results of the sumner work must be brought
in-house and finalized.= For the winter program we have a good idea of what
wi 11 be done at Watana at.d preliminary ideas about Devi 1 Canyon. Next
year's program still needs development.
b) Seismic Studies-Acres should question Woodward-Clyde•s reason for asking
about the level of risk that was acceptable for the project. The external
panel should be made aware of the question prior to next week and be
prepared for discussions.
c) Arch Dam-Planning should-be initiated now for adits.. Concurrently, costs
should be compared for thin arch, gravity arch, gravity and· rockfill dams
to give an indication of potential savings associated with an arch dam.
d) Tunnel Alternative -The work to date should be firmed up with further
development of Scheme 3.
e) Alternative Hydroelectric Development Sites -Further work is required in
refinement of the alternative arrangements and to come up with the optimum
deve 1 opment.
[
' .
[
'
[-·-~.
'
\
[ l
'
[~";\. i
'\
'
' I}
[
[
. ~
[
I
[
[
(
·~ IE
l '
.
.
l
TABLES 1-5
FIGURES 1-13
(Meeting of October 14, 1980)
..: . """~ 11111:: & _ _;~ ~i: ~ ~-... ... , .. lilt -~ ~r P''*J~ ~~· ' ....
~~ ~' ~i· r"~l .. ---. ~·-· t--Jj~ ) · ... ,--~v
t . . 'I' i. . -~ • TABLF '~· ,.. ... . " ·~ .f t
CREST BA!S£ HINIHlJi SElSH:C CENT •. , DAM LOCATION HEIGHT LENGTH THICK. THICK. VOLUME PARAK:TERS FOUNDATION ABUTI£NTS REMARKS A~GJ:~--. I I ;au''·-'-· -.t U4dU usa cuat ·-· __ .,;e.,:zazuc•stassLca -I
Contra Ticino, 722 1246 861,000
(1965) Switzarland (~2Q) (lOO) (658,000)
Mretinje Montenegro, 7Z2 879 971,000
(1976) Yugoslavia (220) (l68) (742,000)
Cleo Conyon Al•izona 1 710 1560 4,901,000 (19641 USA (216) (47~) (l, 7.47 ,000)
luzzone Ttcino, 682 17l8 1,739,000 (196)) Swtlzerlond (200) (~)0) (1,J.JO,OOO)
Mohllmcd khouzaatan, 666 696 . 647,000 neza Iron (20l) (212) (497 ,000) Shllh Pahlavi
(196J)
Almendru Solmoncca, 662 1860 2,1601000
(1970) Spain (20Z) (567) (1,67),000)
lnl)uri Caorg_ia, 092 2~1) 202 :n 4.967,000 ENR Dec. 14, 1978 (190~) USSR (272) (766) (10 &n) (l,OOO,OOO) + Dave Shondalov Info
Thin Arch
... Vaiont Vena tot oso 624 . 460,000 (1961) ltely (262) (190) ()~2,000) Overtopped by
400 ft high WDVO
on Oct. 9, 196~.
' ·~; Minor chipping or
if,, the top l ft due
to boulders was
tho only damage,
Sayan-Krasnoyarsk, 794 )504 11,916,000
Shusen USSR (242) (1068) (9,117 ,ooo) (1900)
Chirke! North 764 1109 98 21 1,602,000
(197;) Caucusas, (ZlJ) (JlB) (lo m> (6.; rn) (1,226,000)
USSR .
.. Hauvoioin Valois, 777 1706 2.655
(19~7} Switzerland (2l7). (S20) (2,0l0} ...... w
El CojQO Yoro/Corteo, 741 12~) 1,924,000
(1984) Uonduruo (226) (l02) (1~472,000~
: .... Ill( ··~ ·b._44l:
OAM
£1 Cajon
(1984)
HooYer
(1916)
Vidral'tJ-
Arges
Morrow
Point
Crystal
Dom
LOCATION
Yoro/Cortea
Honduras
Nevada,
~uzona,
U.SoA,
Romnnia
Colorado
Neatren
Colorado
Green Lako Sitka,
Dam Alaska
HEIGHT
741
(226)
726
(2Z1)
548
(167)
46~
)40
210
.....
·E,i
CREST
lENGTH
~: flllll;~ 't.l;h 1'1: ( ~~) ~
BASE MINIMUM SEISMIC
THICKo THICK. VOLUME ·PARAMETERS
12SJ
(liJJ) 1,924,000
(1 ,472,000)
1l44
(.)7~)
660 4S 4,400,00 Spaced between
(J,J64,DOO) two faults
obout 900 ft
aport
Earthquake in
1977 with a1
508 82 20
(292) (2~.0) (6,0)
intensity or
7-0 on the MSk
scale ot · tho
site.
7 : 2-1/2 ~g.
8 = ~~ g.
9 =· 10~ g.
. 720 ~1.65' 12.0 360,000 In desig1 .it ia
mood "P o point
).
145,000 620
460 16 rt. 26,000 Hiximum Cred-
ible earthquake
Magnitude = 8
Richter GD 16
mi. ·
Accelerot ion :
0.40 g.
Our at ion : 4~
sec.
Design Earth-
quake
Magnitude = 0
Richter U JJ
mi.
Acceleration ;:
0.2) 9~
Duration :11 40
sec,e
rOUNOATION ABUTMENTS
Compo tent
massive
graywacke
REM4RKS
Gravity Arch
..
·Measurements after
tho earthquoke
ahqwed no
odi fie at ions to
norma• behavior.
Unsymmetrical with
~.;
• .
CENT. ,.
ANGLE
.. Uk ,~-, IlL{ ~t t ... !. 1~ . ~--~~. ,J '"'"~--""'•
CREST BASE HlNIHUH DAM LOCATION HEIGHT LENGTH THICK. THICKo .. -
Gokc~:keya Turkey 521 1620 74 20 (1)9) (494) (22.S) (6)
ldikki. India ss~ 1200 80 2S
A~burn California 68) 4150 200 40
Paco1ma California '7Z ~69 99 10.4 (11l) (180) (J0.2) (l.2)
'.
.., '*' ~·
' . . ~. ~' ~-~ ~: .....r• ~r·:~ .. :¥~1 ·~ :.~ ~~ .. r:-'11 l { . '.~ '-· ...... , .... . :<"t . ( (~n !f)· -~ ' ,> •&·-' .... ... '
!o-·-TABLIF J;
SEISMIC
VOLUME PARAMETERS f"OUNOA'rlON ABUT I-ENTS
9.ll,OOO
(714,000)
61J,OOO
61 JOO,OOO
220,000 Sovon aigo Cneiaaic Qua rtz Joint (168,000) nificont oeto divide rock into faults angular bloc ko of
w1thin approximate! y 4. 0 18
),8 milel?
(6 kM)
rQdius of
thq ~He.
195~ "!' Eorth •
quake of
~.o Rickter
qJ 1~ mio
1971 .. San
fernando
earthquake
6.6 Rickter
Gl 4 mi.
(Horizontal
(Ace. 1.2~ g
measured (in each
(direction
(Vertical Aco o
(0.70 g
base rock eotimated at
0.6 to 0,8 g
'
',
CENT.
REMARKS ANGLE
Designed by £BASCO 107.4
. l circular area
Left 4000 rt rod 980' ore
Center 1400 tt rod 1810' ore Right 4000 rt rod 1275' arc
-Built around 19JO
• Constan~ angle arch
• Earthquake loadS
not cnnoidcrad in
design
-~lilirt•
. .
TlllSlE c. -ECONOM lt:S OF IIJ.~INEL. AL "TER.NATIVE'S .
. . \
· US GDRPS OA/li)S 79o 7Bb.
ltiNN£1. Stll£11115
1 7qo s-o·o
A\1. AN,
ENf!R.
&Wil
6855'
CliP £NERG'/
CDST Co Sl
/()' $ . $,1/0DO If. w N
21rD 35'
St'foo A a a G"o a .a3oo
,~~
f!;'O c a7ffD ()G" a .. .
35'" IIS"o "'19oo A a1oo Alan;: CollltriC-~711v>
,.
1'11/iJ£" S~St¢t;u:~;
To rt /;,fin IV o .
3
'
(7'10) 8 aaoo
~~fl?' 'IJ'~o c a&cro . •;A f t'JI L'1l . t; -,
7CJo ~o-... tir/·tJU A .f-t~vo~ l'loo
'
eel~
3 r:' ~f3·t}:Oitf•
('lCJo)
8 /'I 'SO
0'~~0 c a1 oo
8: 15 11U:.t HAUL..
.&8"";tu A -a+co-e.opo
B -a-1-tro~ ~~ Olb
c -i~rFG ~:~Jao
~0
s-o
'!r
3!;'
.t/0
.1./0
4/0
"''f:' Co .......
m
~
I
.,
' 'f ' j ' .
.• !
I :,
' jj
t'
I ~l . ~~
,~
.l
ij
~ v~--~ tl~\.i_. -=rr=rw~ =:'.:.r:r=:..~-.;====i ----------
·-•u •• ·-----~g,,~~~.f~·~'l 1!\ ~·~ ·~ tt~ 1 ·1 ,,.. . "''
.o .lll""vw•r·,~w:a.. :~IE!oe:!!!!!!; -!!'!!±"'...!!:!'!""': !!-"=:!!'~ .. ..-~ ......... -........... --·----····-·-· ... -........ ~ -...... _ ... ....,..__ -·---·····~~~~~ ~·~ ~ ~~~~~ , \~ s ~ ._.. ~ ·a~ ... Tr~ 1 '' ~\i -1 \ J • .Ji "c
• __ ...,_ $ •
~.--!!!!!'!!!-.'!.~!!~ -'> , ............... ..,._ ....... -...--·-----"'-· -····-... -...... """''" .. •·····-, .. ... _ .. ,, ....... , ... _......._ .• ,......,. .. ...,_ • ..,. ........... _..,.. .• ..,.,_,...,.. .. .,.. ·, ·.-r j#t .,...,,. ,,. • , .•. tl. ., .• , .... t·l W~1 \J .... -1 ~~ _,, , fWt~~q ~· h' I •II \
!I J..MI'W"d ... ....,.Jtll8diiW:! ~ ,__.. . !!!!'!!!'!!!Z'!!~ ~ ·-------~ . . . , ....... ·-·-·-.. -·--····-·--·-····· ----... ....... ........... -_... .................. ,_., •• ""ft• •
~J -\·~~\~ H-1 . : '1 i~·~ ~~ ltl.a.l '"t·~~~~, ~w & w--...
.... ~WCMiitiilli!PA!O!ii· ifJJ.111!'!'hi·&IMaJ. ii'MA@iJfi£Ri: ~~oot-w=~r----o&" -
\-\ ;.~ ... \--l 1~-\i h ~t ~ "c·~~ ..
= --•• -:t
~ ·~ ,,
'J ;.
w \~-\··~ · u~w ~1-~t '~--w w-, lift ~'~.L)'SC\t;, L
... 1 ••• 1111111 ..... ,,
I •' ' .. l
:J w v~ ~-1 \·~'-·1 ~i-~~ , 2f/ Nrrl J. ~ fV\ ' ' ', :t
. I ;!
' :(
I ~~ . ,J
~~
' A
•
\~ \·J ~ \·;--\''1 " 1 ~~~ '\lJ~q s
,· J
1 'I :';~' ,I . ; ~~
.·'
: :1 .,
'• ~ . : . !j
' I
w \J" H-W ~~ -1tt ,,~ , wo~~~U-tp
•• W::a::t!W!lt • w \\·W tt~ij .. J ., , \~'!'''"' ~!!v.JQ ~
" -(J:V~..J~t~\,1 ---··
·ll )~ ., \l·t w w ~ WO~()
~~ ···--. ; I t -··-... ---· . _,'l'P'.,._IAJ •••ooa:.cUIICi! ·-----~ ............... ....,_,. .... _.,. .. ·~ ' ....
\~\ ){ ., \·~ w w 10.~,, q~o.., I
)
1 4~
I
.;j
~; ..
'I
'
... *'.:.. ....... LT.~ ·ff!f@!!!!!M!W!i¥.'Jil ~¥£!E ... __ .. '!!! . . ~..,.-...... ----· -... ·-·~,.. ..... .._ ....... ~ ........ ,."'"f>~~-~ ....... ~.,.f'--...... , .... _ ..., __ ....,.. ......
tiQ~t·~ "'~.'f'J~ ~~~ lU~ ~~l:ii .~ ' Sf -· '·~~fl\0 i,\~l·U'~l~'NI ~· ..... .,._,,.~0~!.'-"!!!~ ~!~o;Q-·•-.e·w--9!-!'$ ~tJ
r·~~· ..... "' . .....,J.t:::~t!llil~----·1111181 .. ~ ...... -.u~~ . . . . -~·lcJ"' J.i,.. V) ri~~~ t ··-,l~t!ifi -~a"~ f~ l~~· -.~ .. -··-·-· "·----··-··~ ..... -. ,;
~i!!'"!!!:'!!r9!!f~~~W...!!.Z!:.:';!:':.,,._ ... !....!!'f!.!;! ... , ....... :..._ ........ _... ................. ,.....,. ...... -..... -.... -..-..... --.-·-.. • ..... .....,.. ..... __ ............. __ ,.._,,._ .. "'""· ......... .,,,, .•. , ....... ..., .................. _.,f"'l ••.• ~ ... ·-··· ·':"·· • ·
'L
' '• ....
! •
I . "'· ... ,~. . .
I
.
. (• @'f1tJl!R ~mLIMi ...
. (
.:( SCRffNIOO mro· CL.U
(
.f . -
.,-;:o:
.· ..: . '
. :(·-..
'< :
I .
'
I
INfUT: STOfWfJYEilD/CCST ~~~Tier~
Slf!A..IFIED HYDRru:GY
. IU£R ltr;A.MJ
ruTFUT: CPTlmt S11ESIHEIGHTS
PFProX. RUlE CURvtS
JlffiUX. FI~ ffifRIENERGY.
P!mJXD INFUT TO CINEMTION PLAll'Jil'Xi lfiE..
I Sli1Jl.8TICN rmL.
I ,.
.I
I
I
I
t·
I
INF1JT: A-IYSICAL MTA
RilE OJRVES
. ~tmlJLY HYDROfJliY
IDVfhtY IE10ND
WIRIT: fOOHLY ENERGY/POt,£R OlJJFtJT
IEGJff Cf FAIWRE TO f1ffi IJEMOJID
INFUf TO liN. PLAM·Hrb f'OIEL
-·
-19
-.
:
.'., ;
·, 5 ·-'
.• I
... ...
• 1
( ..
.. ~.
0
COIPI 01 IHOINifU
z~oo . 'o•oo g,•oo
1400.~ •
uoo. "-----
2200 ••
1100.
1000.
1900 •
1800
noo.
1100
._1500
~ 1400
11500
"'1100 0 5i 1100 > ~1000 ..
800 •
800
-· ~
:ECTION A·A
ucu.n
5U'If£t( liNE
lOP Of IIOCM Lltlt
fO\IPQAIION eCO'IDCII t•tA•'I!I0'4 t I~
-MAIIlCIIit
DIS
uti
0/!
Wt
' OM
II
--
1<10.'00 .• -.... -·-· .z,oo
,1400 -------.. zzoo
.ZIOO
.;rooo
.1800
.1700
.1500
.100
FIGURE 1
00WNSJA[I.lo4
"'""r ....
0\ltliBUR~(N
WATlliS (OGt
l)llli.l. HOll
WIV(IIl IUVATION
111" Of Alit•
r~c•vat•ON '"'t
1<01(
101' or 110(~ liN[ a llCAVIli(W< I-.¥
SUIIJlCJ 10 CII&"G[
rOll l0Cll11011 Of CIIOSS SIC. I lOri Sl'l
l'lATt 0·4
SOUII•tllltllll """ fth~-;;;r~-:-~;-l
5UPI'Lfloi(Nlll lUSoftlliiY $111:"'
UPPER SUSITNA RIV(R RIIS 'II
WATANA DAM
SECTION AlONG DAM AXIS
,..,.,.. r.a•••ct. tv~~'11 01 ,..,,.,..lot ...................
N
0
.,
r
'
••
I
(~oo
' ~ .. ( ...... 0 ' .. '
I
r
I
I •
:(
.
B~S BH9 .
~ . '\BH!.LO~--..---• :;~ tlel4 I. S0
TP94a BH-. ~ 1 -C) oBHI5 .
SH& ,~o
<t OF DEVfL CANYON
CONCFtETE GRAVITY DAM
J.:.: U.S. AnM; CORPS OF ENGINEERS O~IL CANYON
SaTE PLAN AND lOCATION
. .
. .
TPI8
rl
a
TPl9
:I
:I
I
l_
~ycf\· Hef~
~~~tar 1'80
-----------------------------------------------------------1 FIGURE 3
""""' \ -22 ·.
TP7
. act
TPl7
' .
)
•
0
0 0 ~
SCALE
0
-
j
'
I , .
. : ;, '·
~~-"
' ...
----· ... ---· -: ·-· . . -. --
1400 . . KEY •
& THIN AR H DAM
(!) ARCH OA s
1200 m SEISMIC AREAS .
1000 I 1.0
f -·
1-e :c
C) 800 -Lll :c
:Ja
<(
0 600
:c
0
0:
<( 0
400
0~--~~~~--~~~~~---~·-~-~·-·~·----~--~----~--~----~--~ 0 400 800 1200 l600 2000 I 2400 2800 3200 3000 4000 4400
CRESt LENGTH (FT.)
F/G-lJ F?£ tt
ARCH DAM HEIGHT VS, CRE.ST LENGTH
. .
1
N w
.I
.. ~I
. ~
~I
'I
:.I .
I
I
I
~I
:I
._X-___.
I
c....~
·-
I
-24
FIGUF?£ _s-
"i\O.AP RESULTS; SUSITNA THIN ARCH 0At1
CROWN CANTILEVER STRESSES
EXTRADOS
• 1 0 i
-t so. o~ :12C. oc· -so. oo o. oc 60.0~
0
0 .
0
C\1
~ -
0
0 -. .c ._,_N
<'J
Lt..--
zg
0 .
-C' J-C\1 <= >
LLi
_J (.)
ll.J (..~
(').
('"J
("')
0
0
l2C.CC
.
c
N
~ --
0
0 ..
c
:"J
f")
(.)
0 -c
N
N
(.')
0 .
c~
N
.
("':"
:.J
0
.. ., ·--' .
. .
0 0
N t'\J
tO • to
-lbO.OC -12!).C!; -SP 00 ~-~~ SC-~0 12!).0~·
CANTIILEVER STRESS CP$1) ,..lOi
LFGENO: ~ ~YDRO. ~GRAV.
C) · H v oRo • • G R A v • + T E r1P •
~ HVO.+GRV .. +E0f0.25Gl
+ HYO.+GRV.+EQCQ.SOGl
.·
. · .
..
..
.. ,
I FI&URt: G -25
..
•• ADAP RESULTS~ SUSJTNA THIN ARCH DAM
CROWN ARrH STRESSES
I • EXTRADOS
..
I
I •to' -40.00 c. co 40.00 so.oo 120.00 160.00 200.00 24o.ap 0
I 0
(.')
0
. . 0
0
C"J
·~
C\1
~
1--
'' c, ,, . c' . 0
. I~
.
0
c""J
(",J
,.,. .
I"')
...
I (:) 0
0 -.. . • 0
<":) .,_~
C"J
N lt.. ·--·I z "'' 0 C:) <:• . 0 -c
I
.
0
._(\I
N <-.
> w
I
.....J '.
(.') w«-:
0 . '"' 0 ~ ..
N c -0
I (.')
C:' 0 . c 0
I
.
n -C'-J
C'J ("\
m
c.J
0 0 .
I 0 . r.
c
N
I.
tO 2.iQ.QC ARCH rps I>
I LEGEND: {!] HYDRO .. +GRAVITY
C) HYO.+GRV.+TEMP.
I A HYD. +GRV. +EO ro. 25G}
+ 'HYO.+GRV.+EOfO.SOG>
I
••
..
•• •
.. ·-...
I
I
·I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
••
I
I
FI6Uff:£ 7
AOAP RESULTS: SUSITNA ARCH-GRAVITY DAM
(.')
0 .
0
('J
m
(.)
0
CROWN CANTILEVER STRESSES
EXTRADOS
C.>
0 .
0
C'.J v -
-(.".)
0 .
0
C"J
I'?
0
0 .
Q
N ru
(.')
0 .
0
N ·-
CANTILEVER· STRESS lPSil *lOi
' LFGENO: [!] HYDRO .·+GRAVITY
~ HVO.+GRV.+TEMP.
A· HYO. +GRV. +EO (Q. 25G)
+ H Y.D • + G R V • + E 0 ( 0 • 50 G) ~------------------------=---
...
-26
·I .
~ ..... ~ :I
••
••
I
••
:t.
I
I
I
;I
·I
~·
.I
•• ! ...
I
I ..
. I
I
•
-27
FI6UR£ 8
ADAP RESULTS: SUSITNA ARCH-GRAVITY DAM
-2o.co
0
0 .
'o
("J
v ...
0
0 .
0
N ,.,
0
0 -. .o
~--~
LL.--
zo 0~
-o ._N <e::
>
UJ
_J '' w~
0
(\J
0
0
0 .
0
('J
m
0
0
I . i
I
, 20.00
I
CROWN ARC~ STRESSES
EXTRADOS
60.00
'
1t-lQ1
iOO.CO
I
140.00 ISO. QQ.
0
0 .
0
N
~
0
0 .
0
N : ,.,
(.')
a .
0
(\J
C"J
0
0
(.")
0 .
0
(\1
0 -
0
0 .
0
N
(j)
c:>
0 . .
0 0 C'J-4-~-r--e--r----,.--,------,~-..,..----r----r----r--""""'r---f-('J ~-20.00 20.00 w
LEGEND:
ARCH SiRESS CPSil
HY.DRO.+GRAVITY
HYD.+GRV.+TEMP ..
HYD.+GRV.+EQf0.25Gl
HYO.+GRV.+EOfO.SOG)
6
"'fLt\l~t
tSCKE.tttG. S
f.
2.
.
1~4W
»co --
tJ-.ItEG
l HAS
-:~.-~a' cp
2.'? MU-ES
. ~OMLV
. 11~0 1'4~
. F/GUR£ 7
TU~kJl b M...TG.R.."'JI\i\VE.S
,, -
N
00
a·
4
CO~ECT(o~S 'fO
li\Jc; 1¥}LUV() Ui~ »c.~t'f
tJtAOE su~ f:~~"'i.~ .. tr
1"0 1HE: \VIE E.'Tt NC.:, •
,_ 42.1 4'
2. t} t~ut. e.'S
F/6UR£ 10
,
~.taE G
$7!) i't'lVJ
~ ................ -~
l-4~' ~ .
\SeS t4U.-6S
~t~lo--r;lt\
aoc; MAv
TtiiURJEb. At-tEttt\JA-TiVES. .;.;. ,, ilASE LO~b II
.,
I ,.
I
I
'· ~ I I. .. ,.
•
' . ..
.
I
• •
• •
•• GOLO
CRE. . • •
.....
..'SLU17i1J41I/'
J)t_,IW,..
.lco17'1AUJ
... -~~ ... -·; .. :
)
tXISTING 'STATIONS
fl U.S ••• I. IAGIIIQ lTAfiO'-
. . \ . 0 t"OW .COUftSI
7 PROPOSED SfAnONS -~
'-&;Jr. I 0 IHOW COVftS£
(J ltiiUMFI..bw GAQI'tG ~~'J , ... ,, . · ··• \' \UTttt Lt:VEL.
\ -·-' · H SEOtWEHT ocsaotAJilca:
\ , $ WATU OUlLITT -........
,'>
c
w
0
.. ----~·------......... ; ··;:-~
~ I I
51 ! ~
!!!!....
~I :==3:·-~_.._..._.S/J()
ICO 1~0 I~" ~ ~ ~0
-----·--lill.fl
• I
I
I
1 Jt:Jw t Ifill( ;=:: .. .:._·"'··. [Jl;
. I
' I
I
'
I . ~lit/ AIH~
!( .. J
. I ~-r-:-::~.-I • ,.
I ~ ' I i~ I Li .. 9
Uo tlttD 240 Z8o
FI6URE /e.
SUSITAIA 1/1/)k)EltCT~IC. P~aTE<.T
P~OFII.F OF AJ.Tt;AAJI/Tit/G ~ 17t .S
~ ~ \ !!' ""• .. '. ' .... • 4 s.
'
,.
3~r;;'
I$PQ 1
lQQ.Q'
Jsop'
•
• .. -·-· ·-.. ----GENEML APPROACH . .. --OUTPUT TO
-\ ..... liif; ·-J ifliji --~
ALTERNATIVE DPM SITES (6.03/6.C6)
SilE
SELECT leN
..
SEf UP
.... PL.ANNING & y
SIMJLATICN
f'DDELS
PRELH1I NARY
!----.. ·SCREENING
..
SUBTASK 6. 36 ..
.A
• INPliT
FRf1t1 6.35
. fvDDEL . flO DEL
RLNS RUNS
~ il l
PREL I MI AARY SUPPLI~OO ARY
ITERIA t---'-~-~m-•. LAYa.JTS L.;.,oo.·[f.....,....~?..._IGN_C_R _..., COST ESTI~V\lE
LAYClJT ~Iffl'ENT
1
_
--f..:;u. ~ CffiT ESTIW\1ES
l\.
...
0
STAGING STUDIES ·
FIGURE 13 l"ECHiEliC, EQU 1 PM:NT .. · ..
OUTPUT TO
SUBTASK 6.36
.
. .
'I
w
N
---
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
'I
I
3. COPIES OF PRESENTATION
VIEWGRAPHS
(t~eeti ng of October 14, 1980)
. ' . . ~ ' .
. . .
·1 -35
I
I OOJECJIVES (6.03/.ffi) .
I
·I
I
I
I
I-
I.
I
I
I
I
I
6.03: IIEffiPf P.WimUAlE SOfJfE.
. Pm: STWIES ff ~ FACIUTIES
6.lE: 1£\1181 POIENTIAL FOR STS lf.VEJ.£HflJT AT WAT~
RID lEVILS CJWilll· · .
ADD: STPUitli tF ALlEmt\TIVE SITES
srurt (f fYE:QWHCALJELECIRICPl EWIRifNT
. '
,· .. ..-
. . . . -::. -"
:
.... --·-.... -~---.-·--.... -.. -
FORM NO. 1G2 REV, 1
l"Z.bO 5"18o ~1bCl SSIO
·--·---·----·-----·-----·----··-..,---·-·----·-. ·----·--·--·----------·-----·----------·-·-·--
A.,&:I{A&E. DaSCt-tA.t'bE. cJs. 43bO bl'10 814-0 qa4-0
.;JII'JILLLoitn"t ~~6~-~-~-~: •• c1"~' -8~·:-~;~--·--;~(:~~-----,~1.-~·~~-... ,·-0-:1.-, .. o-·o-o~·-•--.,·-s-,o-·o._o __ -,-q-e-,-oo--o--1....;.2_o_o .... ,-o-o-o-11 _As_s-...,-,..-~-f-o-,...-.-,n ..... ,-t-aC,_t_s-,·-,,-,.,.--fDI'f
AS!:.cJME,!) J\•;. 7S '/. r.f PM{: l.••U '\'\-. tt \IIi A. cu.-. ' • W.. Q • ·------·------1-----·-·----l·-----t------l-----··---=-.. -~-··----·---~·-.... ---. ·-·--·-----
()~r:IS•oe-) T\.·t-1~\::' "" -
tr.A.'t(.· VN,:)t.•1 y .nIt
c~rrt e o .. \t., H t. '("! a·r It
4?., 'ioo
50
-
. be\-. tooo
---
So
-.--Cor r~~llAMtt s .. ~~r·l ~t.\ /'.«.l..t"tii'J . . ..
CGt.J'iTRtiC.TU"t# .. \ '"' Cth:. '({ f\(l ·---------·------·-----··-----11-----·------·---------·--·---··-----~-·~-
lo Zo 2o l.o '2.0
-~-------------··1-----··-----·-----f-----~--· ·----· -------· .... ----··-·-___ , __ ·-··· ·--·---···-·-·------
3 'Jt. \(;(l t 1
MAY.·
3 ~ --···----··'• ... -..... ---.... s 8 B s. TAU.ftA(.t!; l'::i~ll .f·H~
,_.;._.;.,_.;.,_..;.:._..;..__-..!. __ , __ , _____ l-------1------11---~---·------·-----·---1------.. 1-·-· ----. _____ ., _________ , ·-···.
l;e:;,C:.F~ VO i 1!. f .tefi fcAP.D ,.ft
Roc.< STR~-tCTrJR £
El\R1'H ST~uc.Tvi: e
zo.
IS'
B
'5o,IR Se.(hMt:NT kL.llMIJ-l.C)o.ooo
20.
24;,aoo
U\TJDN Ac ·'i ................. ··--· . -·····----·-·--·------··1·-------·--·---·-·1--·---··
.Zo ·Zo
B 8
fR~t:&A~o A e.n\Jl~ Pl:..~~.,.s·
.f.&.coo Lc vE. '-'•
S'LlOE;. -lNr.~•CC:-.D 'l:\I~GL"O::
A~u,.L-o t..Ess., ... ,AIJ FaooDS"'
Pl. uS l.I•ND t.ff.ECt S
w i1~o"' t a.•h d C.OtJdcp.u c-~i.
Cal! I'$ ·---.. ----·---------------11~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~· )~u::C!.Ac~ e 1i\u.wA1e-r< 2405
le !}C:'t.. ,., t l scoP.Ps r-u:2t.•P.C!. f e·~'T.nA~o
I
l&1o lcr-ao · lo"ao B8o
~~11\1\:t, ----·-------t·----+----··------1-----··-----·-----·-----·----.......... ........,.... ......... _.. .. __ .... _ .. h~ci-f-A
..
..
'· ..
. .
...
~ ~ "n m ,... m ~ z tl c
(' ~
CD m
:D
> > "11 -.J o c. o I
~ -1 ..., r~l 1 r
!!fL.; ----... ·-~ .......
-
. .. ·'Jii'fii .. ..
Table 6
..... <>t< ..
CIVIL DESIGN PARAMETERS .
$it' (Pqol .El.)
., .......... ~ .... .., .. ~-·· ........ _ .... ~ ... -.... ~ ........ -....-................. ,.,... ... ,..._.,.........._., .. , . ._.""'"" ... '""""'-f'oo\"'" ... '"'""···-~-.,.-:"-~·~ .... ,,.. ross ..... f .. ,.,.,~ ..... ,.ilo,,tt·~.. •• t· ·~, ......
length P!~PfV9jr stgr~ga X • Spillw~y .. ~ ....... -
--........... ""'' ' ····---....... --... ---
ColcJ ~r~~k ttrthf.ill
OlQon {9~Q) Concreto Grovlty
Oleon (1Q~Q)
Davil Cenyon (14)0)
High Devil Canyon (1750)
Devil Creek
Low Walana (190~)
I
Mid Watana (2050)
High Watona (2200)
SusHnc Ul
Yea (2JOO)
Vet (2)~0)
kaclarQn (i)?))
Oonalt (2).J))
Denali (2~S2)
Denoli (2~90)
Butte Creek
Tyone
ConQteto Gravity
Thin Arch ) 74
lhruat OlQckt Alternative
Earth fill
Grevitf i ) 7?
EarthfJll ) A!tarnativ•
Concreto-faced Rockfi11
. Concreto
Earth fill
Earth fill
· Earthfill -
EarthrUl
Earthf.\11
• £arth 6 Concrele
Ear thrill
Earth fill
Earth fill
......
Earthf~ll & Cgncreto
14~
635
110
200
650
200
810
660
810
....
100
260
'Z19*
205*
100
'~
Length . 11Jn9fi~ Are~ 10. A~-ft · l)'po
( ft) (ocrea)
Level
o~~t.;~
••
1,:no
1SS
9SO
1,590
720
l,oso
··-
1,650
2,600
1,450
-----
2,)00
....
z,oso
1,900
500
~00
l6
7
--
2
1.4
4.2
2.4
'·' l.B
....
....
·-
••
.. '
---.•.••• --.....-.. . ..............,.,,~.,._"1• .. , "' .... .., . .,, •'"'N'""'-' '" .. ,_ * Jrlr• '* ·•• 7 ~, _.. ,,,,..,~~,...._••
w.zr
...
7,5SO ----7,550 --'
24,200
----
..... '
4l,OOO
...
----
.....
51,000 ...
....
,Q1
...
1.1 ----....
•• 7
.....
s.z
'·" ...
••
o.z
'·'
---
--... "'"'"'
O~~rflqw ~@Cti~n
9f OfMil · '!!'"!'
Chute w/F lip
Bucket --Center Section
of Dam
Channel Cut Into
South Abutment
--
Channel Cut Jn
Saddle Into
. T uuuena Croek ·
.. fiJ 'Q
It It U
Yea ...
Yes
·-
--
--
...
-· ...
... .,
..., ~·
1'' Dia. Glory ••
Hole w/Conduit
Through Embankment
•• ••
.... ..
... . ...
--w .. .......
•Discrepancy muet bo due to better infor•ation in the 1961 etudy • Oonalt (2~~2)
_____ ......, __ ...... ~-
l'illllillii . -ti!i!llilliiii, -· iiili8lili . --.. ... -· . ...
Table 10
HYDROPOWER PARAHf.JERS -
He an Average t: or Site Annual Installed Dependable Annual Firm Secondary River (Pool El.) Head flow Cseacit:t Caeacit~ Energ~ Energ~ Energ~ . Potential (1) Remarke
(ft) (cfs) (HW) (HW) (x109 kWh) (x10 9 kWh) (x10 9 kWh)
Gold Creek 190 9,616 260 1.1)9 ~17~ With U/5 Regulation
Olson (920) 45 9,41)
Olson (1020) 145 9,41J 187 0.915 0.821 1J~ With U/S Regulation
Dev1! Canyon(1450) 570 9,280 776 206 1.489 0.900 0.750 21~
H1gh D.C. (1750) 720 9,170 700 600 J.J50 2,628 0.600 47~ Oats from Corps -1975
Devil Creek 9,170
Low Watana (1905) 425 8,160 ~420 252 1.550 1.104 0.750 22~
Hid Watana (2050) 570 8,1GO ~500 457 2.601 1.997 0.550 )6~
~ High Watana (2200) 720
~
8,160 792 686 J.J46 3.004 0.)50 47~
Susitna Ill 600 6,194 445 1.840 ~28~
-;rii Vee (2300) )75 6,194 )00 1.450 1.)10 20~ With U/5 Regulation r~~
. ' Vee (2350) 425 6,194 '
'· :'
' " Maclaren
,>" Denali ----------------------------------------~------NO POWER GENERATION ------------------------------~-------------------------'!',,·
., Butte Creek
-~·jo Tyone
Devil Canyon N/A N/A 571 J.JOO 2.500 0.700 46~ . .. Denali
Devil Canyon
low Watana
N/A N/A 7J1 4.485 ).200 1.270 62~
_,': Devil Canyon
Hid Watana
N/A N/A 1,062 5.730 4.65Q 1.000 78~
Devil Canyon N/A N/A 1,427 6.850 6.250 0.550 95~ High Watana ,, ... ,
w
00
.. .. ---.. --.. .. .. --~ .. -..
Table 10 (Conl 1 d)
HYDROPOWER PARAMETERS -
Hftan Average I of Site Annual Annual firm Secondary River (Pool El.) Head flow Ener Ener Ener Potential (1) Remarks (ft) (cfs) (HW) (HW) (x10 9 kWh) (x1o9 kWh) hc10 9 kWh)
Devil Canyon N/A N/A 1,552 6.911 6.000 0.111 96~ High Watana
Denali
Susitna I N/A N/A 1,308 6.309 88~ Suaitna II
Susitna Ill
Devil Canyon N/A N/A 1,427 6 .. 081 6 .. 252 0.629 96~. Watana
Vee
Denali
Olson N/A N/A 1,147. 6.511 5.900 Oo611 91~ !!II' High Devil Canyon
Vee
Denali
tJ\ Devil Canyon
Watana 7.181+ 6.552 100~
Vee ..
Denali
Olson
(1) Percent of Maximum Average Annual Energy with Devil Canyon, Watana, Vee, Denali; Olson assumed to be 100~
.. -{;, -~ liJJI --j!!!l!!f 1!!!11! lll!fi .. .. lal .. -.. .. ._ .... .. -Tabla 11
COST COMPARISON
Escalation Avg. CoaE7kW-hr Site Estimated Year of factor (Whitllan 1990 llependable Coat/ Annual 15:t Annual (Pool E_!.) Coat (1) Estimate Index) Coat Caeacitl kW £nergl Charge Notes $ )( 106 $x10 6 MW 106 kW-h~ Hilla Gold Creek 118 1968 550/210 805 260 (4) 1,404 1,119 (5) 117 (l)(6)
Olsnn (920)
Olson {1020) 380 1975 550/)77 554 187 2,964 915 91 *(1)(6)
Devil Canyon Arch 714 1975 550/177 1,042 206 5,056 1,489 105 *(2) -(1450) 432 197.5 550/377 630 594 1,062 1,235 29 *0)(6) with H. Wstena 461 1975 550/177 675 206 3,277 1,489 68 *(8)
5)5 1975 550/177 700 206 1,286 1,489 19 *(7)(1) Devil Canyon Gravity 535 . 1975 550/377 780 594 1,311 )112}5 36 *(7)(6)(3) (1450} 821 1978 550/495 914 594 1,539 J,2J5 42 ())(6) with H. Watana
High Cavil Canyon (1750) 1,266 1975 550/)17 1,846 600 1,078 1,150 8) *(2) 1,015 1975 550/317 1,481 600. 2,470 3,1.~0 67 *(8)
Devil Creek
Low Watena ( 1905) 668 1975 550/317 975 252 3,868 1,550 94 *(2) 420 1975 550/177 613 252 2,431 1,550 59 *0) ~
Hid Watana (2050) 877 1975 550/377 1,279 457 2,900 2,601 74 *(2) 628 1975 550/377 916 457 2,004 2,601 53 *0) t"-
High Watana (2200) 1,088 1975 550/177 1,587 686 2,113 33 346 71 *(2) 837 1975 550/177 1,221 686 1,780 1,346 55 *(3) ~-· <' 1,765 1970 550/495 1,961 686 2,859 3~346 88 ~(2) Revised Estimate
Vee (2JOO) 477 1975 550/377 696 300 2,320 1,450 72 *0) Vee (2359) 527 1975 550/377 769 *0) Maclaren
Dan ali (23J5) 340 1975 550/177 496 None None *(J)
Denali (2552) 134 1960 550/110 433 None None
Denali (2590) 80 195} 550/122 331 None None
Butte Creek
Tyone
* Estimated in same base rear therefore best for comparison (7) 1978 cost adjusted back to 1975 usin~ relative costa of
Ill
Generalll includes cont ngencies but not IOC Arch Dam end Gravity Oam, Page 8-9, orpa 1979 Report end Construe ed first (i.e. includes main access road and tranamission line} escalated to 1980 coste later development (8) Constructed first but excludes common costs of trans--1=:> I~stalled capacity mission linea and roads ($251,000,000, 1975) 0 f,1r10 ~nerfly With /5 egulation
---.. ll!!ll i!!lt il!!ll -.. -.. .. .. .. --<.-.. -Table 11
COST Cl»tPARISON
Escalation Avg. Coet7kW-hr Site fstit~oted Year of factor (Whitman 1980 Dependable Coat/ Annual 151 Annual (Pool fl.) Coat (1) Estimate Index) Coat Capacity kW Energy Charge Notes I L
$X 1o6 $x10 6 HW 106 kW-hr Hilla Gold Creek JJ8 1968 550/210 885 260 (4) 3,404 1,119 (5) 117 (1)(6)
Olson (920)
Olson (1020) 180 1975 550/377 554 187 2,964 915 91 ~(1)(6)
Devt l Canyon Arch 714 1975 550/177 1,042 206 5,056 1,489 105 *(2) (1450) . 412 1975 550/377 630 594 1,062 l,2l5 29 •(3)(6) with H. Watena 461 1975 550/377 675 206 1,277 1,489 68 *(8)
515 1975 550/171 780 206 1,286 1,409 19 *(7)(3) ',-Devil Cenyon Gravity 535 1975 550/177 700 594 1,111 111 235 J6 tt(7)(6)(3) (1450) 823 1978 550/495 914 594 1,539 1,215 42 (1)(6) with H. Watana
High Devil Canyon (1750) 1,266 1975 550/177 1,846 600 1,078 1,150 OJ *(2) 1,015 1975 550/317 1,481 600 2,470 1,150 67 *(8)
Iii Devil Creei<
low Watana (1905) 668 1975 550/377 975 252 1,868 1,550 94 tt(2) 420 1975 550/177 61J 252 2,431 1,550 59 •(l) 6""
Hid Watana (2050) 877 1975 550/171 1,279 457 2,800 2,601 74 *(2) 628 1975 550/377 916 457 2,004 2,601 53 •(J)
High Watana (2200) 1,088 1975 550/)77 1,587 686 2,111 3,146 71 *(2) 837 1975 550/177 1,221 686 1,780 3,146 55 *0) 1,765 1978 550/495 1,961 686 2,859 1,346 88 *(2) Revised Estimate Vee (2300) 477 1975 550/317 696 300 2,320 1,450 72 *0) Vee (2350) 527 1975 550/317 769 *0) Maclaren
Denali (2135) 340 1975 550/377 496 None None *(J)
Denali (2552) 134 1960 550/170 43} None None
Denali (2590) 80 1953 550/122 331 None None
Butte Creek
Tyone
* Estimated in same base rear therefore bast for comparison (7) 1978 coat adjusted back to 1975 usin~ relative costa of
If!
Genarallr includes cont ngencias but not IOC Arch Dam and Gravity Dam, Page B-9, orpa 1979 Report and Construe ed first (i.e. includes mein access road and transmission line) escalated to 1980 costa later development (8) Constructed first but ex{ludes common costs of trans-+::-Installed capacity . mission lines and roads 251 1 000,000, 1975) 0 firm ener~y With U/5 cgulation
~
'
I
I
l t
1
I
I
I
I
I .,
I'
I
I
' :1 I lj
I : t
:1
I
I
I
I. -> w a:
I N
1/). -
0 z
:! c::
0 ..
Calculations
SUBJECT:
E~ViRot·H·tf~JrL /
r t-l ~-rrru1i o ~'\ '-
.. .
~ :\e. V ' ::.0 .'-1 M : S -:.·t /
' r "'-!. ~\ '"" u•,e ,'-.fA!-
•.. -':-!:J!... !.i ·').:.
..
. ·-.... .....__
-.... -.... -1 .;Jt; ". .. -
7
J03 NUM3En ------------------FILE NU~.o13ER ------------------SHcET __________ ~OF ________ _
BY' A,J~ --~_,»;:,_ __ DATE ____ _
APP DATE
-41
......
. "' l
' .. 1··~1··· . .u•
• I . \ :
~' Q
)(
):
~·
\:
'3
'U s:.
f1(l
"' !()
~
3
.....
~ ~ ~
;:,
·zt
.... ;l!!!a.I!!IJ·lll!li.IIMI.IIIIJIJ -~· .. ...... .. ··.· . . .. • < · .. -i • • .• ~ t t .. ~ . ' : ~-' , ·'
... . . .
• I
• a
z.o
'v
/10
0. ~----~--------------~+---~-----------------··----------------------.·---------·· 2.0 3 1 0 . .t.o
SToRAC:tt; Ac.-Fr X 10'
-
. .
!
I
.
,,
1
!
I ...
r·
-~-............ __
/.o o.c..
.
.. _...._ __ -• ' "-.. -c_ DeNAL.t ·-·---~
. ~: . '
.. .....
8,0
I
l /
t-
i
c I
';, -~ ; i
' l
I .
i
~
i
.1 .
tMI • t
i
.I
1
' I
I
I
I
I
I
J
!
i
-0
. S: .
~-
I 4CJO
~
~
' \j .
;~ !al :.~
\J
Q
~ Zoo t-t ~.
Vi
~
100
0
.. .
f ~ ••
UAC.LARLIJ
0
-----------------
/, 0
lll/1..
. .
'·•
{ $USJ'fNA nt
l •
....J...------_,...
?.0
/}C .... ,~ I X 10 6
r·· . , r: , ) k .... ~-· ·r,. ~A' ,. ,. !,: •' c:. r•. · .q..,.. · ~::. .. ;; I .. ":0 .:'.
':.,,,· ..•. )
< ' t!" ',
-,·-j;
--
1000
50o
.....
!' -•u
:t
r
~
..
Ww a s 7\'::J lt.A6-f!
'1£
l>~~ H&.lwHT .
1-ila.l-l DeVIL. CA:'1o~ )__ ---= .--~ __ ,.---
WATANA
<» ... ----·---
0+-------------------~--------~~----~~--~---------------.------~--~------~
Q 2·0
LIVrE STORAGE
"5.0
-46
.s,.,.., t'tA•· !CVfL lli«vtoua Stt~J)JEs· CutAr~tJ SrVJ,,.,
il »,_If r ~~ •. .,. JAMdiSf )!Wt llr. ,_.., CQesr
/5une Ceea~ 2700· -· ---·
J)SN~A-1 z.r.~o ~S'C'-a,. 2co z.s&z. Z.oo-
~cc..Aac. .. z.c.•o __. -.2~10 '~~
V£6 • Z.~1J 2.1~· 4~0. • -_.
.
. .
~
' -SUtTNA· Rt • 21~ . . ~!,)~ ~oo· • -~ _.
•• a~t.s' t,.l,D: •• --
WAT~IIA ·''' ~ • :;~~-I 'lit»' Z,:-1~ ,, .
'
Qoe l he'D .,\C 2o 6o oJt '2,e;. " j
' I
I
-iii ,,,~ it 16
.fftOH ~(. • z.ooo ,,~ ... 7'ao ,,~ ,~ . •
J)C. • ''oo lt.JSW S\t) lift\ $'$t) '
-~ 1310 t,o~· •• A ••• S5'D ... It,«
O~.Sot't IC.,oo ' .. ... • -
' 'oCr) c.z.;.c fOe»o -• . --
it ACt 7£R HltTI ~, SPit. \. w ,.,y AMii lit-~~ I W"S Nt
. .
IJ Jeo~•~•a.c.... J>Att~t A~rae Hl'l-rrve
0 J)Am l+'fS. FR.oW\ APP/lo,.. sTile~"' Be...l> ELS.'11+7towr.
.
I
I
i
'.1
-~-.. -~~.!!.fM~tl~~-f.I.~~~~-'-~~:P~-~~1·toae& ...
tfo ~ii·t -~I~-'-t~!~-_ (»Ac.I..At.~... ,.,,,.,~,~ eva~,
.......... ~ .. ·--~~·---·------... --.Itt~!_ -~-·~·-~.. ... . ... ·-
1 61tb 'fll'la M M ~-·i . L. X H
......
L
l ... H t·\ ~.,t\, fw\
.. ,.: ... •·--....... ...,~ ... .._~ ............... ------.. --.. ---· ........ .. -... -........... _ .... , ,,.
• •
I l h -~ ...
•
..
'
...
I
I ·•• .
' ..... .,_. .... . ,•
.·t· • . .w
I'' ,... ... .. ·,, /''. .
. ,.. r \ .. -.-,e-·':~~ ·~ ' .. ,, __ . _ _,. .. ,.. . ~·'---·. ,./" _......_.... _ ... ~
.PI At:=.
~····~·
t '
~ •
..t«•!:;tt. liAM.
•• t$?12.
_, ..
I' ;
~,
I ' , 1\ ...
"
'• , #"\o,_..oll ,
•
..
'
I
... ··-· ·c.-·---· ...... ·~---•
.... . '
11110 •
• ! • Ill»
-4 .
. LON@IIlJD!NAL
)
t
,.. ~-.• • . t i --
'· ..
,.,.. ......... ,
••••
;!':!tLLYY4iY ~SGT•ON
tO •• I •
t • ' ---· ·---·-----·--
.. .. -' • .. t " •
t t i I • t •· I ~ t a I ' --·-·----··------·-----·· .. '"-··-------·-·--··T-r-ra-r-r-· rrrr r·1 · r ~~~~"
-
•
-
-
'
0
c
~ . . ....
fC • -£81---6 • I ' -• • ' •
II
.. •
· .. , ..
....,.-.....
'· -/): . ·.
•
/ ....
_,-.-jii:)OO _, ...... ,
............... ----·--·-·--------· .. --...........
I
.. ~·· ..........
# ... ... • ··-------··---....... _.... • •• • • ....... -~---··,
.. ~···-... -.__......_.. . __ ......., .. '. ...... _ __.,.-.-_ ...... _ ......... ~ ...
. ... ...-.·· ...... _ _...... ··~ ........ ...... ...
:.,· ..
Jr-. fxl -... , -rr::r·:,n· ···--·----........
. . ~ ... _... .. --------····~-·-·-.. 1111\4~. ........ •.• "" "" ... ·""'~ ...................... . t • t ., t • .. .I . . .... • . -.... _J -·--·· ~-.! ..... , -··y~--1-.A. p.!....r ·-----·· --· .... _. ··---·· -----··-... ·---·---, tO • ..
1111 ' . .. . t ...... -• -' ..
···: .t;'
.. • I
I I L:
• . t .. _ I
~ .. J '
II!IJ 1111 "" IJA1
' • t I ' ··-.·a • a
..
r
I • . . .. . .·
.... ···-··· .....
I· , ... l
.... --. ~ / -
h"C'S
···-.. 10
X ''Q'ttt 'W rt' a 'Str
I . •• t
,
\
•
I ! SM FP t a
...... ~
I_...,.
\
A*" AnY"
-I
, "
., ..... .f • I • . t ··----...... ·---······. ·-.
..
I .. -I I *.. '
• ,
.. . . . . I .a . t . a I ' ·1 · ,--~·r-r rrr-1-11 r r r
.. I
t·
I
I
I
I
I
I
•••
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
. ·I
PLANNUil SDJDIES
l. tfflM liOO tw SOEJ£
SJlftl
~Mil
2. CtRv6 FOR nntmiAlE sams
3. DATA FOR WlRATICtj PI.JWUNG MJIIL.
,
FEEDm
<Ffl~Ui SIZE (f Dt:\fleftBIT (OR IWf£) I
STA61~ SCJ£IXJlES ·.
l"f
·-,•.
'" ·. ~ ~ . . .
., '~-
-53
. ..
. . ' ,. . ,. ~--·;-~ .. ~ii( .. '. ' '
li\QQQ
12000
10000
~ ~ 8000 ' ::r:
~
'" >-6000 (!)
et:
LLJ z
LlJ
4000
2000
L
~ !"" • IIJIII', ""' . ...-~_,......., ____ .
/ -----· ~ ---v ISER FOR
(RAIL BELl
.
1974 1978 . 1982
FIGURE I
~
v .
_L ... -:<3-~ ~ +~~ v /~
,.-"'
"' ,. !8:-c;.
I" ·' / ~, ""~ v ¢-" , ~ ~-v~ q~ .~--~z ~· .~ ,_~ ,, __ .,. __ ,. "~..,.
~~ ~;,Q~ ~ v ••[2 .. -
~~ AAIV' .
lo-' y .,.
r-CAST
UTiLITIES SALES)
--·· ..... --·
APA ENER Y FORCAS.l
(1975 usc ORPS REPA>F
/
/
~~ISER
/4 if ..
/ '
"""' ./ ,-_.,
\_ISER (MO .,.. .. ,. _.,.
~..,.,. -------(. ISER 1
..
.
.... ,
~
T)
"HIGH)
.
pT LikELY)
LOW)
'
..
...
~\00
urso .t
I
0
19SO 1994 1$96 2002 2006 2010 . 2014
TIME (YEARS)
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
4. NOTES ON HEETING
October 15, 1980
.. ~ .•, :_ .. ''
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
••
I
I
I
I
I
I
Susitna Hydroelectric Project
APA Review Meeting
October 15, 1980
Acres American Incorporated Offices, Buffalo, NY
Primary Objectives
1. Familiarization with work program.
2. Review of:
-Progress of thermal generating alternatives study
-Progress of hydropower generating alternatives study
-Environmental screening
-Analysis of ISER forecasts
-Generation planning work plan
Introduction
-56
The meeting began with John Hayden briefly introducing all participates. The
focus of the meeting was identified as a discussion of portions of the
generation planning efforts which is being conducted, primarily, in the Columbia
Office. Peter Tucker, as the lead person on these studies, initiated the
discussion by referencing the·design transmittal of the generation planning
parameters which have been under review internal for approximately one month.
These parameters were previously the topic of discussion as of the September
Technical Review Meeting. The parameters written in the design transmittal are
intended for extensive internal review and review by the APA prior to their use
in generation planning modeling.
Robert Mohn indicated that the APA has been legtslati:vely charged to adopt
planning regulations which are currently in draft form. It is not necessary
that they are directly used in the Susitna Study, but, if consistency is
possible, it would also be desirable. A copy of the APA draft document was
provided (Attachment F).
The topic for discussion of the generation planning study was the intertie
assumption. It was noted that the interconnected systems as recommended by IECO
would likely not become a reality unless Susitna is developed. Therefore, the
intertie assumption should be carefully scrutinized for its impact on generation
planning studies conclusions. The conclusion of the meeting was that the
interconnection cost assumption may be made for screening purposes, but should be
identified in generation planning studies so that no alternatives are
overburdened or underburdened with cost of generation. It was recognized that
the assumption of the full intertie is b~neficial economically to a decentral-
ized system compared to a centralized system. Thus, it will be necessary for all
conclusions to be evaluated in light of the intertie assumption. (Subsequent to
the meeting, it has been decided that the 138 kV line from Healy to Willow may be
assumed to be in place. Other necessary lines must be charged to an alternative,
as necessary).
•. -
I
I
I
I
I
I
I.
I
I
I
I
(
ll
I
Internal Review Board Meeting #2 -57
Analyses of Thermal Alternatives
_Pete rucker's presentation centered around review of the table of the different
alternatives cost and sizes, wh·ich is included in Attachment A. Cost for the
different alternatives came from an EPRI manual dated 1978. The Handy-Whitman
Index was used for updating cost to current levels. The factor was used to
change the lower 48.prices into Alaska prices based on Battelle's work. This
work was reviewed by R. Lang in the Buffalo Office. It is noted that the Corps
estimating factor was as low as 1.5 which is the lowest of all studies
reviewed.
Coal-fired steam plant production costs were found to be approximately 90
mills/kWh. This total includes capital costs, O&M and fuel costs. A factor was
included in these estimates to reflect increased costs to remote regions. The
estimated costs of the thermal alternatives are shown on the handout used in
Appendix A. Alternatives studied include coal-fired steam, combined cycle, gas
turbine and diesel. Gas turbine peaking capacity was found to be about 110
mills/kWh. It was noted that baseload gas turbines should also be included. as
an alternative in generation planning as a sensitivity test.
With unrestricted use the plants could operate at about a 60 percent capacity
factor. In the base plan existing gasified plants will be allowed to dispat.ch
at whatever rate is economic. In accordance with the Fuel Use Act, however, new
plants will be limited to peaking status.
Relative to fuel escalation, it was stated that Acres would be using the
Department of Energy figures which were recently published on October 7 in the
Federal Register. In their feasibility planning criteria, APA has recently
adopted a 3-1/2 percent value for the 20 years as their planning standard. This
figure will be used in fuel escalation sensitivity studies in Subtask 6.36. It
was also decided that sensitivity analyses for interest rates and escalation
should include the APA economic values of zero percent inflation, 3 percent
discount rate, and 3.5 percent fuel escalation.
Hydro Alternatives Analyses
The center of the hydro alternatives analyses presentation was a list of the
best alternative sites which passed through the first screenings. Initially, 65
sites were identified as having production costs less than 120 mills/kWh of
these sites, 16 were eliminated by environ ental criteria screentng. Sixteen
sites were removed at this stage. Of the 49 sites remaining, the ten best sites
relative to production costs were presented on a handout (Attachment C).
The· first·stage screening utilized existing information from the Alaska Power
Administration and the Corps of Engineer·s. The cornnent was made that the APA
data is probably a lot more responsible that the Corps data from~ reliability
standpoint. Concerning the phase-two screening, it was conclude · ~t initial .~
individual plan layouts should be done for 10 to lrbest sites i, Jd of ·-
diluting the effort on more sites. It wa.s suggested that cuncluSHi11~ ~auld be
drawn from the latest estimates and work done on Bradley Lake, which can be
acquired from the Corps of Engineers, Anchorage District. A check would be made
on the amount of manhours and time l"'equirernents for detailed layouts and cost
estimates for 10 to)£.. preferred hydro alternatives •
. . / -: _.
~.I
t
i
I
I
I
••
I
I
I
I
(
~ .I
. I
(
[
li. 11
ll
11
-58
· Internal Review Board Meeting #2
_fnvironmental Screening
Kevin Young described the initial screening process and the second-stage more
detailed screening process. Sixty-five sites were initially identified by the
screening process of which 16 were eliminated. The primary criteria for initial
screening included those sites which were in national parks or wilderness areas
or high-quality anadromous fish stream. These criteria are listed in a handout
in Appendix C. Those sites which were eliminated in the prescreening were also
listed in the handout.
TES is involved in the steering committee which would be reviewing the Susitna
alternativeso They are prepared to comment on the alternatives screening
process but not to actively participate due to budget and scope limitations.
The Chakachamna site was discussed. It was questioned whether the site should
have been screened out due to its fluctuation of a lake which is included in the
Clark Nationa-l Montment. The site was not screened initially since no
construction would take place in the monunent. Robert Mann suggesteo tnat h•
the environmental screening process of some of the more difficult sites, such as
Chakachamna, review materials should be sent to park managers or local fish and
wildlife personnel and allow them to make a compatibility judgment.
Additionally, they couid be asked for possible mitigative effects prior to
screening out the alternatives. One reference which can be included in the
second-stage screening will be a CH2M Hill report which was done for the Corps
of Engineers on a broad environmental screening of hydro sites in the Fairbanks
and Anchorage areas.
This report may be available from· either Robr~rt Mohn or from the Corps of
Engineers, Anchorage District. Also discussed as an issue was the allowance of
economic projects to carry through the first screening which would override
environmental criteria. There are several advantages and disadvantages to this
criteria with the primary disadvantage being the criticism which could be
leveled by allowing an otherwise environmentally unacceptable alternative to
continue in the screening process •
Review of the ISER Forecast
John Hayden initiated this discussion noting that the workshop.review of June
lOth and 11th provided a mixed reaction to the ISER forecast. In genera 1, loca 1
utilities believed that the forecast should be higher, whereas individuals at
the public meeting. said that the forecast should be lower.
Since the meetings, Peter Yee has conducted a detailed review o_f the eocnomic
and social parameters which went into the ISER forecast. Mr. Vee's presentation
followed a handout in Attachment D. Discussion focused on three areas, the ISER
methodology and model, the model runs and results and model deficiencies and
imp 1 icat ions.
I
I
I
I
I
·I
; .•
I
I
1: .....,..,
-59
Interrial Review Board Meeting #2
One key limitation of the ISER forecasting is that only the mid-range government
expenditure future was pursued, not the high and low. This results in a limited
range of forecasts by the ISER end-use mode 1. It was suggested to have ISER
operate their model for the high government spending and high economic activity
scenario to get a higher bracket on the forecast range. In addition, they
should review the low economic, low government expenditures scenario to get a
lower bracket. Battelle will be doing this in their alternatives study but it
will not be completed in time for the generation planning studies Subtask 6.36.
Subsequently, a telephone call to ISER found that it would be impossible to have
this work done prior to December. Therefore, the decision was made to use the
numbers in the interim, which Peter Yee has developed.
The ISER mid-level forecast will be used in the base planning forecast, with the
sensitivity analysis performed using the high and low forecast range identified
oy t~eter ree.
Other limitation of the ISER model inc-ludes a narrow range of projected
industrial growth and the impact of relative price and suitability shifts of
alternative fuels.
Conservation and Load Management
Phil Hoover discussed the work plan for Subtask 6.35 using overhead visual
display (Attachment E) which outlines the report to be produced by Subtask
6.35. It was noted that the future modifications to load shapes and patterns
will be made on the low economic growth, low gove:·nment expenditure forecasts
used from Peter Yee's ISER review. The plan for additional load management
conservation measures will be a conceptual plan based on results from
experimentation and application in the lower 48 states with the suggestive
judgment as to the possible affect on the future power demands in Alaska.
Robert Mohn noted that the energy probe study done for the Alaska legislature
has already done a study similar in nature and should be reviewed. Of
particular use from the report would be the methodology of applying end-use
changes or conservation at the end-use sector to the ISER model.
Generation Planning Studies
A review has been completed of alternative models available for the s·ubtask 6.36
alternative planning. The results were presented by Phil Hoov~r. The review
has found that although there are a nunber of existing system p1anning models
available with diversified features. The review has concluded that considering_
the study objectives, the most appropriate and cost-effective model to use would
be the General Electric OGP-5 model as originally anticipated. in the scope of
work.
I
:t
I
I
I
I
I
I
:(~
.I
(
·•:
(
(
.[
··~ '·
~
Internal Review Board Meeting #2 -60
The proposed work plan for the generation planning studies was prescribed in a
handout. The work will be divided into four phases with spec·lfic objectives to
each phase. f
The initial phase will be to develop a base plan for the railbelt, with and
without Sus itna project. This phase wi 11 use the mid-range ISER forecast and
mid-level escalation interest.parameters to identify the best Susitna
a 1 tern at ive.
The second phase of the process will deal with the impact of variable levels of
load forecast on the plans identified in Phase 1. The high and low forecasts
developed by Peter Vee, based on the ISER projections will be used to the high
and low ranged. Additionally, the conservation and load management forecast
done in Subtask 6.35 will be analyzed. A great deal of discussion centered on
tne method of assessing the results of ove·rplanning and underplanning capacity
additions to the system. It was generally agreed that the analysis should
identify the plan that balances the penalties of being high or low on capacity
addition to the system. ·
The impact of variable planning parameters will be reviewed in the third phase.
·This will include reviewing the impact of using the high and low range
escalation scenarios and the alternative fuel escalation price shifts for the
mid-range escalation forecast. In addition, in this phase the impact of
.variable capital costs for the projects shall be reviewed.
In the final sensitivity phase, the Phase 2 analyses of the alternative load
forecasts will be assessed with variable planning parameters. The key areas of
sensitivity relative to these parameters will be identified by the results of
Phases 2 and 3 e
Conclusions
Some of the key points and conclusions which came out of the meeting were:
,./ ,_
.
(1) Specific layouts and cost estimates are necessary for the 10 --~2 best
hydroelectric site alternatives. This is preferable to using previously
deve 1 oped estimates or more generalized data for a greater n IJllber of sites.
The Bradley Lake data currently being deyeloped by the Corps can be used as
input to cost estimates .
(2') The assumption of a fully intertied system for generation planning is not
justified in the absence of a Susitna project. Only a 138 kV line can be
ass1.111ed to exist. For initiai screening of alternatives, the costing of
transmission to·· an intertie and the cost of an intertie, if greater than
138 kV, must be included.
(3) Although current federal law may prohibit its uses, one scenario should
include the availability of natural gas-fired generation plants at high
capacity factors (60 percent). The natural gas prices shall be at market
prices.
' .. , . . ~
[~
' '
f.
il
'I···· ..
' ' t
;I
:;[
ll
;{
l
·![J
.[
~~~
'l
[
l
Interna 1 Review Board Meeti n~r #2
(4) APA is preparing economic evaluation criteria for use in feasibility
studies. Although it is not mandatory that they be used for the Susitna
study, the incorporation as possible would be appropriate.
-61
(5) The environmental basis used for screening Susitna alternatives and other
alternatives should be consistent. The methodology will be presented to
the-Susitna steering conmittee at the meetings the first week of November.
(6) The mid-range ISER forecast will be used as the basic forecast for
generation planning in Subtask 6.36. In order to widen the band width
between the high and low scenarios, a forecast with ISER's high economic
sector activity and high government expenditure will be used. The low
activity combination as well will be used. These forecasts cannot be run
uy ISEI\ uutil ue::Ct::mue::r <:tt tn~ ~arli~st. Tne estirnatea iorecas'ts oy i-'eter
Yee will be used as close approximations of the model results.
(7) The consideration of balancing the penalties for having an excess or
deficiency of capacity will be of great interest.. More consideration will
be given to supplying detailed methodology for t.nis aspect of the
sensitivity studies.
PMH/kh
Att -·· iments
.
[I,
a
11
~
~ L.
~
.~· [I
:.I
"i,
:l
:t• :J
~~
a .
ATIACHMENT A
' .,, .. -
0 ,·
.,. --. -~~-l~~ ~ ~-. ~~-ttS . ~.....j. --~ t-...... a I;~. ...... ' ,, l .
' ..
Potential Hydroelectric Sites Passing Rough Screening
(Short list)
(1) (2) Trans.(l) Capacity
Traos. Cost (MW) Regula-
Site Stream tion (mil~s)
Upper Nellie Juan Nellie Juan R. Good 80
Tustumena Tusta.mena R .. Good 90
Lower Chu 1 I tna Chulltn~ R. Good 36
Keetn~ Talkeetna R. Good 16
Skwentna Skwentna R. Glod 88
Bradley lake Bradley tL Good 112
lowe lowe R. fair 16
Tokichitna Chulitna R. Good 36
Ventna Yentna R. Good 28
Chakachamna Chakachatoa R. : Good 84
((~)) Good = 70 -100%; Fair = 40 -70%; Poor = <40%.
(
J) Measured from site to 1otertie system.
oased on $200, 000/m-ile.
(4) Ooes not include transmission cost.
($/kW) COE APA
1333 12 12
857 21 21
80 90 90
43 74 74
198 98 89
238 .9~ 94
58 55 55
42 184 170
' 42 219 132
51 366 332
Cap. fac.
(%)
COE APA
54 G5
55 55
50 50
50 50
57 55
50 50
53 50
50 55
50 55
50 55
,.._; I:;:::J (Tf" ', ~ :"-'"ll ~~ , .......... 'r;;;J
~ I
Cost(4 ) Cost(4 )
( $/kW) (mill/kWh)
£0E APA COE APA
3450 38~5 100.3 91.8
1733 . 4120 49~5 114.7
2747 2215 80.7 66.7
1820 3028 63.5· 89.3
2080 3507 53.6 79.7
1103 1675 32.4 49.2
2333 3403 64.7 84:1
1671 2483 47.6 64.3
2307 2945 65.8 75.7
743 1824 21.2 47.3
KEY PLAN
OF AL S K A
0
ALASKA RAILBELT REGION
... >100 MV/ 0-25 MW 25-100 MW "'0
OJ
VI ~ Strandl i ne L. 13. Whiskers 26. Snow 39. 1 Lane
VI 1. .... 0.
Lower Beluga 14. Coal 27. Kenai Lower 40. Tokichitna
:;:, '"l 2. \0 0 ro 3. Lower Lake Cr. 15. Chulitna 28. Gerstle 41; Yentna ::a .....
0 ro 4. Allison Cr. 16. Ohio 29. Tanana R. 42. Cathedral Bluffs
c: n to ~ 5. Crescent Lake 2 17. Lower Chulitna 30. Bruskasna 43. Johnson :r -s .... 6. Grant Lake :18. Cache 31. Kantishna R. 44. Browne VI n n 7. McClure Bay 19. Greenstone 32., Upper Beluga 45. Junction Is. '"l VI ro .... 8. Upper Nellie Juan 20. Talkeetna 2 33. , Coffee 46. Vachon ls.
ro M'
::I ro 9. Power Creek 21.. Granite Gorge 34. Gulkana R. 47. Taznna
.... Ul·
::I 10. Si 1 ver Lake 22. Keetna 35. Kl utina 48. Kenai Lake . 0'1
\0 ...,. 11. Solomon Gulch 23. Sheep Creek 36. Bradley Lake 49. Chakachamna .12. Tustumena 24. Skwentna 37. Hick's Site 25. Tal achulitna 38. Lowe · ..
r ,f" il t1J
;
:~ 1
'! m
·~ 1
i
'
I
IJ
~ tn \~' " 1
ATTACHMENT B
-~'-"'' "' ,,
... __ ..;. ,..,., __ ;,:-~ -....... d_.~'""'~...O•,._ _ _,.._,..,...,....._ ..,,..,.,..,_,,_~ .,.__ ......... ~-----"'"<>-. ... •~·--~~ .... ,,{,,~_..._ ..._.,_~-~·""-·---~ .. -,_."'"'..__ ... ~_M .... _~.,...;..-... ",......,_ ____ ..... ;~..-·-.-'-"....:..,.;:,._.,, ·----~--,...:;.::., •• _. ''"''"---'-' ~-~·-< ·-~ ...... .., .... ,-~ .. ·--~· _ _._ .. _,..._~"-"<+•._.,_,.'. ... ~ ... -...:. -----<'"'"' ,,j!._l.,_, .. ,_,._,,~ •• ~--'~---~---,.~,-~ 0> • ;.....,H0,<>-__ _._, ,,, <-;," 0
~ E:! !;~ Sit 1"21 Slt ~ ~ £-~ ~ F-:\~ ~ lf':-::3 ~;~ ~ F~ ~ -~ . . . ---~ l< -' -...a'
TABlE 3-1
ESTIMATED THERMAL PlANT CAPITAL COSTS IN RAILOELT I
lie at
' Plant Type
Capacity Rate Capital Cost ($/kW) 0 & M Cost (m111s/$kWh) (MW) Btu/kWh 1 2 3 (not includ1ng fuel)
1 2 3
Coal-Fired Steam 500 10!500 2061 2248 2748 S.89 6.42 7.85
Coal-fired Steam 250 10!500 2286 2495 3049 6.18 6.75. 8.25
' -
Coal-fired Steam 100 10,500 2612 2849 3482 9.1 9.9 12.1 -
Combined Cycle 250 .8,300 780 850 1039 21.02 22.93 20.03
Gas Turbine . 75 12,000 660 721 881 23.36 25.48 31.15
Oiesel 10 11_!500 1056 9.0 9.5 10o0
1 -ANCHORAGE-1.65 FACTOR
2 -BELUGA -1.80 FACTOR ·
3 -UEALY/NENANA/fAIROANKS-2.20 fACTOR
All costs are January 1. 1980 dollars.
Capacity
Plant Type (MW)
Co a l-f1re~ Steam 500
Coal-fired Steam 250
.
Coal-fired Steam 100
Combined Cycle 250
Gas Turbine 75
Diesel 10
TABlE 3-2
COMPARISON Of CAPITAL COSTS
Heat Capital Cost ($/kW)
Rate Alaska
Btu/kWh lower factor
48 = 1.5
10,500 1249 1674
l0 1 5QO 1385 2078
101500 1583 2374
81300 472 708
. 12,000 400 600
11!500 704 1056
.
All costs are January 1, 1900 dollars.
. . . '.. . ~ ~ '·.. -~ ~ ,.
0 & M Cost Mills/kWh
(not including fuel)
Lower Alaska
48. Factor = 1.5
3.5 5.25
3.7 5.55
5.5 8.25
12.7 19.1
14·.2 2lo2
9.5 14.3
'
m
.rf .
111
:m ·m
m
rn
·m,
.
,;}
• 1.1 .,
m
i't.l;
1) w
)
1
;.l m
'
j(JJ
m
:I i
'' ' ~
TABLE 4-2
POTENTIAL ALASKAN FUEL PRICES
FUEL
COAL
NATURAL
~iAS
OIL
* 1980 $
LOCATION
Be 1 uga. M/M·
Be 1 uga E.xp.
Healy M/M
Nenana
Fairbanks
Anchorage (Healy)
Anchorage
Cook Inlet Export
Prudhoe Bay Export
Prudhoe Bay
Healy Coai = 8350 Btu/lb
Be 1 uga Co a 1 = 8000 Btu/ ·1 b
Natural Gas ~ 1000 Btu/cf
Ave U.S. Coal = 133.3/MMBTU
NG = 210.3/MMBTU
Ref (9) May, 1980
FUEL COST RANGE
C/MMBTU*
(12.3 -lt~Q)
(215 -229)
lOti
(106 -128)
(140 -141)
(150 -153)
(24.0 -104.0)
(190 .. 200)
(318 .. 464)
$13.42/bbl
$24 .52/bb 1
-68
REMARKS
Ref (2)
Ref (2)
Ref (1) & Ref (14)·
Ref (1)
Ref (1) & Ref (14)
Ref (3)
Ave. 3.4 Ref (9)
Nikiski Data Ref (27)
Ref (6) & Ref (7) & (8)
Controlled (1977)
Decontrolled (1983)
Ref (11)
i i!
. n,.
j . '\ i )ro.
ATTACHMENT C
i ' .
~ l
/<\ I
~~ ' t
''
~ .
I
m~
f
rn
m
. rn~;
r4 t!l,
fli
[
m
m
[
ID
[
[
~'
l
·!·:
Environmental Criteria for Preliminary Screening of Hydro Sites
A TI ACHf.1ENT C
.. 70
1. Existing National Parks
2.
Parks within study area: Mt. McKinley National Park
Description of exclusion criteria: Land is not available for hydropower
development.
National Monument Proclamations
Lands within study area: Wrangell-St. Elias National Park
Dena 1 i Nat ion a 1 Park ·
Lake Clark National Park
D.escription of exclusion crite-ria:
These lands were withdrawn on December 1, 1978 from hydropower development
and will remain withdrawn for twenty years or until Congress passes
legislation settling the issue. To date, all the versions of the Alaska
Lands Bi 11 have included these 1 ands under some type of protected status
that would make hydropower development highly unlikely. It should be noted
that if the lands bill is passed, a few of the sites located in these areas
could again be available for consideration.
Boundary Reference: Map -~~~.dministration National Monument Proclamations
and FLPMA Wi thdrawa 1 s."
Feb. 12, 1980
3. Non M1tigatable Impacts to Major Anadromous Fishery
Description of exclusion criteria:
A site was excluded if it was identified by both of the following criteria.
· a. The proposed development is on the mainstem of a major a.naJromous fish
river with three or more species present.
b. An anadromous fish run exceeding 50,000 is identified at the mouth of
the river and the proposed development is located downstream of the
confluence any with major tributaries, or a major fishing area is
impacted.
Criteria Reference:
a. Alaska's Fisheries Atlas, Vol. I, State of Alaska Dept. of Fish & Game,
1978.
b. Map prepared by:
Reso·urce Planning Team
Joint Rederal State Land Use Planning Commission 11 Fisheries 11
(File No. Flv-9, Alaska Resources Library)
:, '
.
m
E
:It
lli
k
m
It
:; [
~ :
.[
[
(f
Sites excluded
Site·
Healy
Carlo
Yanert - 2
Cleave
Wood Canyon
Tebay Lake
Hanagita.
Gakona
Sanford
Lake Creek Upper
McKinley River
Tekl anika
Crescent Lake
Kasilof River
M i 11 ion Doll ar
Rampart
. 1n environment a 1 pre 1 imi nary . screen1 ng:
Criteria
National Park ( Mt. McKinley)
National Monument (Wrangell-St. Elias Natil
Park) and Major Fishery
-71
National Monument (Wrangell-St. Elias Nat'l Park)
National Monument (Denali Nat'l Park)
National Monument (Lake Clark Nat'l Park)
Major Fishery
Major Fishery
r ' ~
r~
..,:.,.'
-[~
·[~
~.
b.
" ' 1
l ......
f
!L.
l
r
.' ..
i.::.::t
f~
t .
L
f -
' -
ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION MATRIX FOR SYSTEM PLANNING STUDY
Evaluation Criteria
I Fish
Ecological Big Game·
Protected Species
$ocial Recreation
Socio Cultural
National Monuments
,_and Use Parks
& Subsistance
Designation Cultivatable Lands
Population Centers
l -major significance
2 -moderate significance
1 -minimal signifi~an~e
? .. unknown·
Alternatives
A B C D---1 .. -;:ft. -~:to I&
It: -•
•
~ refers to data base upon which assessment was made
-
-72
FACT SHEETS
Name -
• f
Location -L
Energy ... ...
Capacity -
Cost
r Site Conditions
' .
'
E ,
•
~ ' '· .
f
;
t ..
f
Environmental Evaluation -
-infonnation on criteria used in the 11 environmental evaluation matrix"
•
_',' .,
-73
..
ATTACHtENT 0
[
[.
[
'
[
~.
~
""""'-"""'
DISCUSSION OF ISER FORECASTS .
•
\
ATTACHMENT 0
. .
•
j
~ : ,~
•
October 14 1 1980
-75
".
'"'·
m . .
J;
~ ' ':
D
..
. ' •
E'
·.
i
[
·~
t, .
. .
•• <
.. :
. . .
TOPICS
J.I -.ISER MODEL
II -MQDEL RU~S AND RESULTS
II.l Economic Scenarios
II.2
I:t.3
Economic Projections
Utility Sales Forecasts
III -· MODEL LIMITATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
..
III.l Limitations
III.2 Implications
. .....
•
-·
-76
-~ l
..... '
.. · ..
•
. .. . .. . . .
. . .
... .. ... ..
:-. . . · ... ~· . . ........ .
....
. ·
.....
H
.. :.
.. · : 1'.
,
. ... .
~ ~ .. . .
..
G
. . . ' .. ',_~ ;. ~ ~' ~ .
'. . .· . . ..
[·
'
' ~-
u
~·
"
~r J:
~ ~
! m·
~ t
~ ' .
'
~ . .. • ' .
~ '
.
. '
...
. : .
I
.. .....
·.
GENERAL STRUCTURE
OF
..
ISER MODEL
'
-77. :
•
. ·: -. · .. · : .
. . . ..
.•.
. -. . .. .. .
..... ·:
I
!
I
:1 I
l
'l
" ·i
.. ~row~r~bce~r::~s r.w~~
Mining -Exog. Con-
-Manufact-struction
uring + Tramp
Agricul-State Gov't
tur State Gov•t
-Federal Construction
Gov't
ilousehold Formation Rate
Dummy ~. for Pooled Ti~ 92\iu.
~ Initial PeQple Per Dwelling
Unit
-Housing Removal Rates
-Vacancy Rate!
!lousing Choice
(regressions)
Appliance Saturation Rates
-Fuel Mode'Split
-Appliance Avera9e Annual
Electricity Consumption
Proportion Using Electic
Space Heating
Average Level of Consumption
Utilization Rate
Average Electricity
Consu on Per Employee
-\ of Total Residential
' Co~nero!al Electricity
Required
t of Household Electricity
..
~.~.
MAP Macro J.lodel
.•
Housing
Electricity End Use
Model
Residential Non-Space
Heating Electricity
uirement Module
...
. .
:<. Populatiait, Employment, .
·· · Fiscal Vans.
. . . . : . . . . . . . .
.• .. -.• . . ... ~ . . .... : ··. .. .
I .
. .
. ' .
. -·-· ...
~ Civilian Non-Native Household
·-Native Households
-Milita llousehold
-Regional Share of Population
d Regional Share of State
Employment
-Regional Share· of District
. Support
-Employment (e.go construction
+ transp.) · ..
-Regional Share of Other Support
Employment (e.g. retail,
-Total Noe of Households by
. Region
Jlot!sing Types by Region
-Single Family
Duplex
-Multi-family
-Mobile Homes
Electricity Req. by Region for:
-Water·ueater·-Dishwasher
.· Cooking Range -Clothes Hasher
-Clothes Dryer -Television
Refrigerator Air Conditioner
'•
• . I ; r Small ances
Residential Space
lleating Electricity
Requirement Module
..
.. , Cooonercial-Industrial
Electricity Requirement: ~~
ule ·
Street L ghting '
Recreational llome
. · . . .• .
Electicity Reqe~for Space Heat
for; . .
·-S le Family-Multi-family
Electricity Required for Commer-
lndustrial-Go~ernment Sectors by
Street'Lighting & Recre~tional
Uomes. Electricity )lequirement ·
..
I ..
. : f;
11
..
' \
/
..
. .
...
. •
.•.
.. ·
..
•.,
· .
·.
·.
;•
· .
. . -~--.,_.,. ._.......~ ---·--." :·} :--.' ~ .. -. .. . ....-:-:---·
r • --· • ·}~ • "" 1" ., ~--~-
__ . .--. ..... --... ---...
~ -..
..........
___ ....
.•
II MODEL RUNS AND RESULTS
'
79
-..... ·-· .. . ·.
· .
' . .. -..: • ....... •. ··. . ..
• . •
•
. ..
.•
. 11 Ill
11 . si
..
. .
·. .. -· '
expenditure
a total of 9
Scenarios. are combined to yield
economic Scenarios.
All. scenarios -result·.in positive
·halanc§~with.lowest level of $49 -:-..
•
,.. d . :tun ~"'-· ...
·billion with
high government expenditure·scenario in year
2000.
Exhibits are attached to illustrate·basic
employment scenarios.
-
·-
•
)
·•·
. . . .
. . .
:
. '
• .
·m
.l. ·-···
: ......
. )
..
• t
I
I
.
..
48
46
.44
·4:2
32
• I I
3p
. f
· .. -
.. 25 ...
':
.. ...
' : -
•
. .
20 :! ) ..
-;···
15.
. .
. .. .
,.
; ~ 1
-.
lQ.
·s ..,
~· . ~ . ,
. ' LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS ~ 81
• 'l ... •
l----------~~----~~----~~~--~----~------~--~-Federa1 Govern-ment·.,···· . . .
-
. ..
i.
.
i .
!.·'"
I
' ,.
l·
I•
!
I
..
'
. ..
I
I
... 1 • . .
.. ·.
'. I
'·
·~
. • .....
'·
• I •
'
i
,; .. •• . ,
' . . .. • I • , . . .
I •
I •
'
c. ..
• I
..
.·
.. ,
• !'
'I • !'. -.
t • • ,
;·
-~
I
~ . • I
I •'
i . ., __
.
·I .,
·I ' I
,·
:! ...
...
.. '
t.
!
l
:. ·-_,' ., • I.
l • t. .. • :· • ~ •• J .r .. ::r-· r
I. · r. • t . -:-=: f=.:·.;. ·f .. ' . 'I I l .. , ...l . . I ...
l · I
I I
I \
I ·•··• _, i' . f
. I • -~·
I
. .. .
.... ·--· !· .•
I
--------:~~anuf~ctu~iD:g"T .....:. \,.
.. ......
: .
..
..
..
.., .. . ..':"'.
- f
i . i
.•.
: f
:.
;·
! ...
I •
. .
i
I -:
J • . . : , .. :'-. --,--
; :0
! .-·;~
~ ~-·7·· .
• .. -.~ . ' • i -·-! . .
.. j i .·-Jt
I
!.
I -\
~· i I
# .....
l ,
I ..
·-
---
.
I . .
.
~--------------------------------------~-~ining
·~-·: .... =-
. ! ; :·
: ~ #
l' '
f·Exoq.
t
Constr.
t. • • . . ,
' -:-· ...
...
• • ! ...
i ...... I ..
I •
·-•--: .. . • ! I
. .. ~--~~~~~--~~--------~------------------------------~~~~eno~s ') . .
Trans·.
' .a
,_ ...... _ ... ~
. •"
.. . . -; .. ·--"-
-..
! . . r:· li: ..
[
. .
-
I· ..
'
'.I
•i
·'
. . .
I .. . ...
..
I . I . :
·---::j·: .. ,.
10
. rs
·-
r
: ...... .
' . : . .. .. . . . . . .
.. .
I ..
'
. '
....
'\ ! ...
MODERATE
·.
.I
.. .. ,.:
'
I•
·. .·
.; ... ' ·~ .
-;
! . , . ,, .. . .
l !
'
. '
I
I
I •
I
#
(
I •
T'"· . ,
I •
I l
I
..
I . ·
..
.... ~
I •
. ! .
~ .... .: -.. ••' ·-:..\ .. .. .
ECONQr.fiC GRONTH
···. .. . .
"
'I
'
. !
1 I
. ..
...
.
i
!
. .
j .
I • .. . ..
---···~ -
...
j
.
' I
!
. ..
·•·· . . .. -.
r
. i
: ·'
,.
.,
.·
;·
t I . . . .......
SCENARIOS
,I.
-1 ...
·:
t
1
• :I
I' .. -. •. i . -.
I
•! .
. .
~ ...
: I •
i :·
' i '.
.. •
,.
.
~
l ..
.,
!
.,
. . .
I' ..
r.
~ ;-
i
~-~
t I . , . ··-..
!
• 't If
., • •t. .... ~ . .... ~ r • .
I
; . .. ,
. . -i
. --..
. .
I
• • _..,.-
..
. ·!
I
...
1
Minj.ng
t
' . ..
..
. j:~.:_,...;._ .
. ; l . I . : : I' . -r·, . ·. ~ ... , . --,:.-. . . . , .
. •• l I I , __
I ..•
i ·~· · I ~ 1 ... --,-· ~~ ---:·i . ,.
. • :.I . : 1 • -_:L . :' ; . ~ -}· : . I ... ::. I . , ..
I I J
,,;. I . ;
.·: r· ·-···-}
·I .. , "'t •• f ·
-I
I
.. : ... f -,. ,,: . -:.:· t .L •·
I i •
f
. ·,•. -·-· --.......... _ .. • • 1 !
I ! .. -1=
-· .~· . .f-·
1 • • r
I i
! • • I ! I
' ~·--· I
;
I
I
I • I
··-"'• I f
If!.. ... • .
. '' I .... • .
.:···
I
! . . . ~!
.~
r
! ·! •
. .
i , .
I
I
• ..,. I
~
'· I
.·
r
I
j, i .: I t ....
!} . 1
f ..
J ...
I.
I •
•.
.. ' \ i
\
·.
·.·
.
"'
"j'
I
. . ... .
i . . .
' !·
' l.
I
i•
.. :
\
\
' \
I •, • . t
~-
1
•.j . .. . .. ~ 'I .. i . i ·-..
It i . .......
i
j
··: .. , -.. ;
. I •• i.
•I
., .
I
l·--
i ,., .
f· .. ·····
' ,.
_j ..
"1-
j
··t ;
l
'!
~ ' :
...
.,
I
! .... .,
• I
I
,,
. .. , --.
. .
• ·::-
·:
I
I . .:" ,. . :"'·;
-·-· ··-
. . -"j'
. ; ..... . !I
i .
.. ,
'·
i. ' .
-·-
...... . .
'
. :..-. . ..
. r··.
. ..
I ·•-• .... •
., ..
i
. ~ ...
-~-,
..
.
...
l1-.
• ...
..
•I
I
I
I
l"
,..
. ~ . __ }:
> I .
• + ... i
• • i
I
·!
·. .. • t
I
-t•• I • ,
1 ..
; .
~ .
. . .
. i -:c-· !-..: --i--·-f..-... i . . . .
I •• : t (J I I • :. --~--r··
• I'
A:gri.-Forestry.:.
Fisheries-! · ,, · . . . . \
·,
! --t. -·-: ~ ............ ,.,,""'==·::c:'i•• ~ • t • '
' ' \.
. . . .. : :· ·-.; ~ .
~xogenous 1 ·Trans
porta tion.~: ;-;
. I • • •. ..
• 11 • • ' ·-.. -: . i ·t·-·"" t ---;··-. ! ~.. r ~ • . J I -\:'. .•.. ·:,..I··:;., .. . . -. ., . ' : . . ... · Exocrenous: Con-,_
-...o. ••. -* .. .,, •• : • \.
~--.;.....-----~-~-----,..-----------------!'" st.ruc t~on ____ ...
-
··.--·i ..• ..
~--~;.~· .. ;. ~·-·-····· .. {.; ..
• ~J; •
. ' . __,.-.. ' . ·-.
.;. rr .. ;
. ~~;
. 20
'!
... ·-·-! -· -, ··--., . . . ..
..
ro. ·
..•
. [·.; .. . . .
"' . , ..
"··•-· -..
-· ~ .. .-... ..
. , -i-...
·--···
I I . ·-, ..... . i .
! --···-·· • !
' • 1
-! .. ,.I .. i ..
!
' . .. .. I• .·
......
-·--· .. . .. .. ; .
~ ..... .
; .... • . I
-~·-· ..
I . ~
..;. ••t.
I ,
t
..... :--·-
... --;·-·
·. .·
,I
'·
I . i
.. -····,. .
,.
·-····· ..
.· ·-.
.. ,
I 1980 1985 .. .. r. i .. ~ t I ! · .
' k= · ·t ·-r · .~ .... -~
·.:. : ' ~ . . J • .• ,J. • • "' ·;-··I· ···h ..
.. i !
..
: -· ..
. ,
. .
. : _, .;
.· . . . ... _ .
I ;
····--.
. I
···--!
•• :
. ·~
...
·-···-:
.·
.... ,
t ......
... , . ..
• • !
' . ;• ! .... -i •• -,·
. -·' , . . ; . ... --· •
. v • Average~G.rowth
. ' .
High' ...
··'-----.a~--·~~----------------------------------~-------------------------------.--~--..L
•" I
"·
\
1990
'I •• • • : ... . ,.. .. ....
' .. • • l •
•
...
199'5
.. .......
: ...........
.,
2000 .
·' . .
: .
. . -· .. ·-...
I
. . _,
. j -· 7;·~:~:~ . ; . '
i i '! ·-.. -··· ...
. : . . ---+-·-; .
I . .
!
li
...
.. .. . . ~-].' ... .. .. ·
f.or projections are
.. 11' -' . . .. ·. ..
•
..
....
rt ' .
, ·-.
n· ' •
'
·· . ... .. .. · .. -· .....
Also, annual·growth . ·' attached.
..
'--. ·.··
•• •• , ... t ._.,
•.
rate&
... . . · .
~. . ... ·.
··.
.·
... . ..
.. .... ·: .
_;._: ... ~ ~~ -..:· ..
..
'
··... . ... . .... "
·.
..
.. . .
. .
I
1
:I
I I
..
-.. ··
·.
I ,I
I -·
..
}
. . .
.• J-
. . . ..
-· .. ·· . . i . . ..
_.,.-.. -......
·~ : ~ 4---'i f.!: .. ··~l!l • :·· ··-........ _ ·-· ":'"-:-···"'" . ~ ..
• ·~ • I·' ' ... ..... .... . --····--··-............ _ .. -··---· • I •
' ..
. .. ~ :; : { ...... '
..
·····~ ,--· .... •
I
.... . .
... ..
·' ,.
"\
..
· .
·., '•
-·
I.
•' .. .
·-. ., ~ •·
..
r••··
... ....
·' ..
•''
. ..
·-t ... ..
.· . • . ..
.· ...
• .......... , __ .J .:.
· .
·~· . · ... .. '··· . . ,_;,., :
·,
I
' i . :
l' :l :~· ~~;~~ ~::~~-.. J
• I ....... ~ • .;;""", .:...,I !""!• ~·_,;·.· •.·~.,. 71 ~~~~ ~~ :Gl~;··.~~irC"~ r i
. • •. .J . ~· =~ .~ .. :.::J .... , .. ·: .~. ~~ ·:-~ t7:7_7~~~., I {:--:·t: :-:-1~ :···:. . ,,_:·· ·-' ... ~ ..... ,. \.,., ... " l/ . ~: . ·;·: ·,'·'. ·; '!·~ ~ .... · t. •• :
~--: ..... ~. · ... -p:·: ,. :· : ... r:~ .A/11''7;:~7.-· ~~.~ . ·,., . . .. ~ .. ·: : -~· ( .... ;~,'·r~•~· .'!-r· .··•
' ! ·• l 1' • • • • ~·· r ,1) •• • -........ __ .. ~.: .... --·~·--· ~-..... S" .. GM ... / : ' , ' , '' • '•.W. .'.•. ' S I -~.1 ' . \, ....... :..~ ~~~~ . . .. -... . .... , ...... t·· ;.,.J~.,. .-~· : ......... .-• ·. .... :. .r ___ ._ -·!' :,.-. :.-=...: ....... .:..r.-.: ~ ;.. __ ...
I • • • • • : ·" .. • •I· . : J ... ' .. • ·I ,.
·-····· .
. i .... .... . ....... ....... • .. ·:··· ... ,,... ..... ~~-·. ;··~-:-~~:7
S - . $ tate·····)-. : .. _r.......... , __________ . -... -. . •.. "'·· ; •.· · ...... : . . . . ~ . .. ~ ··~··j'~:O.. a.,. ; ,.., •
0:. • :··: .,• t • 'C • • ! r • • • •
:~.~ .. =-~-... ·::··· .;-;-:· ... , ' . 't ... ·~· .. .,. . . ~~t-.. i~;.:·: .. _;_ ·"·-;',:~1:' • • • • • •• • • ' i
. ".•.'"1 : _ .......... -=.-.·-·-...
t··:: ·~!.
•;_,.! _:.,.I
l I i. ; .. ,
••1''.' • I .t-•• 7-~···L-. .....,.",· ..... : ... ~
o.l:
I ':. ! ,•. •: •
<~~ ··.::·-:-·j·-··-r~ .:;·
, ' . " •• '; t ~ t .... , . ... :. . , . . .. ~ ·; :. '-': ,. .. , ...... ~· ·:. : ... ·
-.... -.... ·· ··• ·" ·-·-·-·i...!J·--·~-· · · • • --W·
J( :· : ; . . A/ I: . ·.; :· ·.:! :. 'II~LES .!.G
........ ,. ... :· ...... ~.· ...... . . •.
··-:·-· .. ....... ···-\.
'·
..........
I , '• , , I , ' , l . , , (~ :, • · I .;o"'" ,, , , '
f!lll' •·-• .,..L--·•···-··· ·-· ·• ····--·"•··---..... ..:. tJJfll"' ~ ••• ,
• j .. ). :1-· ... 'i . ··. ; \. . .
···~:-~~·~-,·~·-r·;:-··=· .. , ....... . .:"" .:: .. \ ·.'1·~· .·· ·,~·.,. · -~·;. ·. L ... · t
;' , . · i •.. \ r , , .• ~ · • A ! .. ~.
, ..... , ... t ···-.......• ....,. ........ ·--· •• ··~·---... ___ .,. -·· ... -.... , ·-,.. t···
• " • / • I :-,-• . . ; "" . . . ..
-
-·-~---.... --. . ---
... ·-"· .. · t ·-r . . .
·. ,.:. ! . ..:·.· •J :, ... J ., -c; , • ·• .,. I' . ,, . .
. . ~· •.. ;:'.:.::..:...,,.~_... ..!,-:.:.1.
_,. .• ·.~~ ... ,..... ·! .. ;.. . . . . , " .... . I . . .... ~ i ,I I 'I I,, " , • -·-""-'•T·--• ·-·-·-·---• • ··.1::, ... j· :· .. : ·· . MEp:-
.. -...... ;, :. ; .. ·-: . i . : .
FUTURE El~PLOYMENT ANNUAL GROWTH RATES I
(%).
..
,1980-1985-
1985 1990
~TATE: ..., --.... -.....
LES..:.GL lc.9. .6
:tES-GM 3.0 .9
MES-GM 4 .. 5 1.3
HES-GM 6.7 2.5
HES-GH 7.7 3.1·
RAILBELT:
LES-GM 2.3 .9
I I MES-GM 3 .. 9 1.3
HES-GM 6.5 2.1 ·)
. .
• ...
~ .~~..?:!
, . · .
1990-
2000
1.9
2.7
2.8
3 .. 2 /'•
3 .. 7
..
2.9
3.0
3.5
. .,
· .
'.
2000-
2010
1.0
2.0
3 .. 3
1.0
2'. 0
3.3
•
.•
I ~ 0
1.·6 .--.,·. . . . . . ..
2.3 .. .
2 .. 9 ..
31.9. . .. . ., . :·
4.5
.
2. 3 ..
2.8
3.9
......
.. . ..
. .. . . .
.. ..
.. . .
.... " . . ..
: f •\
. ..
. .. · . ... ..
,.-.
• •••••••• .: •• • •••• t
'' ,:,• '• I •'"' ~ ,• • .!. ,; • ·.• '• ' ... . " ' ... . . . . . ' ' . . . ..
• II -6! ·.~ t • '•,.:' • •·t
. :,
. ' . ...
... , . .
. ..
...
. .
. .
...
.. t~:~.:
Ls ...
'j ~4.
I. E .. ;'".'·.·;. . '4 ·.
.; . -. . .
-· .
' , ...... , .
. ·i
., . ;
... ·i. ~·
. .
\
I ,_
I --·-·--: . ...
...
. r . ~
: . ;. .. ,
. _ ..... ,
:
} ... . ,
I
..
.. : '
!
--,~·
.
' • I • • ;
---
·.
-!
'i
I
i
.·. : .
I • ..
. ,
• ! ! .
l .
!•
i·
I
i
I
1
1
~;
,I
:~·· t
l c
...:
\
• ..
I
-~
, • i
., .
: f . ~~
Y-··-
~
, 1
.,
I
• I .
.
!._.
·!··
I
l :
.r
! . ;
.l ..
.
l
•I
-:· . .... i' . ' , .
; .... . :
'· .. ·
, ~ :. • • '.. .. :~ • r. • .. , f•· · ·: r • i·· , ~ •• .......... -.. .................... ! -.. ~:··,.......·-.r~-.. "11-~ .. , ....... ~-·. r. ...... ~ ·v .... 1.. ....... 1" ......... ,,~ .. ··:-wr"" ........ , ...... ,. ............... ~~...; .. 'W__.. .. , ......... .,.: .. ':..-....... _., ...... J, ............ , ...... -~-. ·-........ t .. -· : .......... ···--·· -~' .......................... ···-·~ ........
j,·-·:··:·~-~~~.:'.·~r:·;!:: .. :,~·~~:f:~~· .f.·; .. ::.~~~~~~~~:-1~!;:.,:·: .. •.•,1; .. ~··r···· t·,.. •. ;,.;~:·! .::(. •.~··r: I;\ ... :·.,,::.;·, (I) ••.• fl:·· .· .. ~~ .·~·f.-I ..... ·,. ,· ... ··t•. r . ! t ··i, '·· ~-'. .. _. ~·-.. t... :r·· ••.. I('~ ... : ··r··.· ..... , .. ,E, ... ,~ t• I .•.. , . . .. t ~ !'--• r •• I . I '.I. ···~ f •' ' . I; J .. ' I • I . .
~:-' ... · ... ::;-~~·7r:· ~ .. ~ -:""!7't:t:~~L~r;~: ... ;:r.;~rt"-.o..r:·.~~ . [··:-~-~ ·:-J..,.·.-:-:· ~'"':··~ .... ~. r..l •• ,t ... :-.... ,. ':"::-;.~-•......... ·-:····:-~·--·-,· r.-··r·-··;· ..... ~--: ··:-·-···:, ... : ·-·t· ... -., ....... i .. ~.-: ..... :-: .::· ·!-· .. ~··. ·-;·::. \'•.-' t .,:•• • •."' 1 ~ .. • ,.•:!"" ,9•: ... •,.••. :\t•',., ··~~ .;,;.;~.' ~\," t/.J .. • I ,•,, • ·~·'I :: . • tl) • I •:: laJ" 'rz:l "I '\ • ,t • •, f• • • t' f ' '•• • • : • •t ' I • e ' ~,
! ... .-t-;L •. .• . . ..... . .... t.'::.,·.1. ~~~:::·,•t·.'"'l:·.;. ·:· ~= l; ,, . ~ . .-.. t ,. •• • •• : ., ..... ~' •• .. .'• : ... l.: J:::'!.. I' .• ., .. , ... ,. '... : , .. ·· ··. . , I I. .: • •• • .• ' t •• !f'"' .:-.... ,. ••• ~; •t..'··· ~~ ....... ,.."" l .. , . ..., :>'"'Ia-· ,., ....... ,.,_. •• • • ....... ·. ~·--: I ·'•""( '!• •• .ztt'• • -:1; r .• I:,:··""· ~ ......... I,... r .. . ..... ,. t '\ ·-'. I ,. • I
i ·.. . I .... j.\. .:~~-.... · .. ::1 .. : :~:·:· ... _.~~-: ::~.~~·· .. :.:.·: \.· .. t ~ ·~·· ... f .• ·.:, . ;· .. :-...... t····· ,. ·l·. J·., ., ..• , ,· ... ; : ' .. , "' ' . ·,. * t • • • ·• ., ••• ,. ' • "' ' • ' ••• •• ... \., ... ~ , • -.. • • • • t .. ~ ... . e • ~ • I . . '
•• :.-·-·-~-..:,... ..::. • '4 • '::... ~. • ;, ~-it ·~0:..: . .;~. ;.:.:.:.1.:.~. -..... :, .. ·:~:.1~ .. --··-~.-.. --· ....... .:..d.: .... _: ...... -•• i..·a:.. ·-._,,_, .. ;· ... r .... -· ······ ' . ~-.... : ... '·· . r···· r ..... _: ... --" .... -· .... ~. ···-
• • •• :.. • • •• I ... ,.. • • ... • QJ 1 ; 0 •• ·~ .. ~ ... ; , .... " '" " ..... I I I : • • • • • ; I ' .. I • t ~· .. • : • ' ~ J 0 : • • ' • t ... • I
i· 'I
··,:·":·~~ .. :-··! : ..... -r-~·-.:-1 .. ::~ .-::.···· .. t.~·.JJ .~:-:"!"',-~·;:--::· :"t):-r\-::;;!~ ·;:-::· ;.-· --.,.-··:···,·::.:.: .... : ... ··· ~-i~:-.-:·r:· ~ •. r··· .. ,.., ...... i .... .,.• ... :. ·:·-··,! ·~ ..... -, ...... ,·.. ·-..... i. .. : .• ·;·.. ... .. . -. . .. . -. " ·-·-· • I t' .. •• ' •" . ..-•. , r , ... ; .. • ~. •·'" • . • .. 1 •' • . . ' I' • • . • . • ·• I : ' I • • • •• • .. , • :" cU I • . • . . . -• . •. . . , • I • . . ' . . • • ,. • • ' • • •' 'I 1.;· ..;s, ·.t·;,,, ·,· ···•: I',,, ......... ::.: ..... :-• • i •' ·,, "'!"J • .•, •. i •,"'. 1 I ,. 1 I • ' L• ._ .... _ ............. ··-... ,_. ·-•• ..;.c..a.. • .:. ....... .fJ .. , ••. ·~" ..:.. ..... _...,. __ I_J... .... 6--... .: ...••... -......... '"'!If·= __ ................... ··-··· -~t...... .. ...... ,. ~ .......... ··-· .... ... ... .. . . . . . .. •....
: ·' i. '~~ .: •. , ...... · .. ·J·U)L :·.}:: ....... ~~·: ...... ··t~ ... , ·p. f.· .. , .. ·c. • ; .. :. ;· I . : -~·. . ' ·~ ., . .
! · ; ,_:. ;· ··~·· .. ·re,. •: ·~. : · . ~., .. :• ~ · .,· ::~ . .• , . I· ' ~·.: · .• 1 ·•• .. ; • ·., . , f .• 1 ; I ;· ... ···~·--:-· :r:-;-...... -·.·-,··""--.tr.:·:.--.~:·:·~: •........ ~:~·t:-::;· .-... :,.·.· ... :•· 4 ;··· .. ' ·r!. .. ~.._ ... ,·.···::r: ....... ;-·,.· :'··-J"'··;-··r·, ·····:; --..',·.··,··,,. ... , ...... 1·. -••• r·· .. •.
..... -... ...
·-: ., .....
. ••• t
. ' .. ··: . . ·' . · .. J ; ·' ;I . . . ~ . ~ . . , . ·' l . ,· r • .• I . , ·' ... .. . , ' .
I ·I . b r'' .. •' t'•· .. ·, .•. · ..... ,. •... ·• f· •. I ~~ ' • ; .. ... ., ' • I I ! . . . I : • • t • .., . •· . ' . ~ ' • , • . • • ~ h \ ~ "'' . ... '\. ~ f I ~ ..... -.. -"···-~·-. ·-·=;J..I .=-t,·-:-~ i· ~···--,-.-~--:..·7'· ...... ':\""1.~-·~:: T ~--""' .... · t-t • • -·.~:·1~· ..... •1··•• •· :·I. __ .. i.. ··· · ....... ~· :--· .... , ...... ~ .. · · · · ·: · · · r ··"':~··. ·~ •. !' '· ......... r t!> i·--~ ... ~:h·: ·i :,·· .. : .. t.",:: •. ,,_...,.,, :. .. • f I .. ~ t!J i • . •• ·~ •. t. ·. .·· e: ~ . ' i
" ....... i • l ..... I(, ..... · .. • •.... : .. , ..... ' .• :: 7tJ) J·;. til • . I. •• . . . '.I,. . . f -·... • . • • ,:-· ' ••••• ,.... .. ,· ... -............ ~ ....... ,. _. •. ,·-~ • .~~ ...... J.-... ,.._ .... s., .... :~ ......... 'Jtl' 1., .• •(11· , .• ·'--··.' • ,.a •••• 1 ,.~ • • •. • " ••
.. ::-.....
,·· ........ ·----1
·~· ···t;.-.. l'J, .: ~ .. ~: ..... ·1 ~·i·:.:::':·::··J::::·:J~·>·:: : i' ., .... ::, ... e' ·!. ·~ 'r·-'' I ~ ,·.. ... . • :· · ... ,\. .. ·'" .... ~ .. l.J·' .. ·· ;:·.J ..... \-r ::__. : . ·. r-1 ., ........ ; ... , . · .. •:.i . , t·
. • • ·•·•·· •. tl).. . ~· ---,l~ ..... ~ :r:. ..... ····-\....· --.. -·--+-.: ................ -.• . . • tt=J • ... . ; • . • • &. .. • • • • • •• •
'. ,_, I t •• .~ ., •••• ,. ,. I··:;.,,._., .. ' ... :=t· ... . ... ... • •'!' • . • !'
·----~--~·-' • ' .,. r ·-·-._.._._ __ ....... _ __.._ .... -....,.----. ·-......,.--.--
,. · ... ::r:~· .: .. :~~ ~-·:. ·<\-.... f ... ~:.~~.~,:·ti~ ·r·~·::. " .... L: .. : ~ . .,_ ·~ -~-:~.. ·~ ......... : ~ ........ )c
...... !"
• I
• • ; • • 0 • .. •• ,. '·.. .. • •• • •• ~ J ; " : . ...-.....-! , • • • •
•• .II \ • '• • • • : ·-'· .J ' ' \ ·.· \ . : .,. • •
• 0 ~ ..: :: • .., • : l ..... I. •• • • • • •
I t I J If,. • o .. ot II e .. : • • : . . ·-' ..
' .....
t1)
8
t1)
~
. . . ...... -, .
.•
i" .•• ;"' ' ..... :·":-~·,..·""-~,. :·;: .,. .. \. i . -i h. '\ ;·· .. • ....... -:··:. ~. ;j'
: ;'·· .. , · 1.-~· •. =.:r· ·:r~~.~~ .. '\. : .. · \: ; ·~; · 1 ! ·· ·, , .. ·--·-··' .... ~ .. r·-··--···li_ .. ""\ "\ . ··.·,.. . '·· ........... ,. t, .:· ·l • • ,:· -c.',· :,. ~ r:·· • .. I J· "· i ' • . · • • : '• • ' . I···'·• .,rf • ,. : • ,. I • •
I• ' t.•, ' " • '~' · • f I '' • • I ' . . .. ·:.. . .. ;: . .'.' • .. ... !~ \ .. . \ ~ ·. .. . •
. !_;. '\: : l' j .. I • ·-... ' • : .... • . . .. · ...... ; \ ... · . .
......... •"•'L'' • " : ....... , " :._ •• ···-· ... • •• • ••••.• \ •·. ··'·. • .. • ...
I • . ' I : ·; ':.: . . . J . . !' . . I I \ • . ~
•
•
.. • •
•
•
• I t.-·-·· -·~ .. ·. P-4.
0
Ji.l
'·· ;·;· ·. r·i· · ·:· :d· ~: · · :.: :·. ·~. \ . '· ·: .,. ·. r·: • . : .~ ., .. ,--··-:-":··1·-:........ ·--~..... . .. .. ...... , ... -, ... . ....... ! • . . • ..... 4 .. ·~. ·-. : .. . ,. . .. .. .. 1 ' • . ' . ' '. . • • .•••
: . •. .. . ! ' ~~ i•. . ' ....... i :. ; .. ; ' ~ . : ' • ~
. . ,_
, .....
·•.
~ ~
'' ' ,f . f• • 0 I ' ' 5 I ·.~.1~,·. ~·;·.;·~·; .. ::~r(y~~J~:~>, --~~-~ .. ,. <. :··:\ .. --!·-\
~ .. • . • •. ·' ': ...•. i ... :1 •.:.• .•••• , t .. t'' ·' • ; ! •
!;"1 • It · I· ·• . •' .. , · · ;. ···:· ·~· '-; ".!If t ' •··• ' I ·. '· ' \
,:t! : ·:::-L-:-:-;-·t·~~-·;t··r··~-·~-~·.-:.:~ ·:;-~~ ~'-:-' ... ~::-· . ..tr .. : ',; .. ~~ ~ :i ... ' . --~ .. '
-. ~ • .i • ... . '
• ..... : _ .. t •
• ·. l .. .
' .
•
•
' ' . \
•
•
H ·' ·-· :~·; .. j: .. :.-:·f!~ ··~ ,·::-=:.~:~~:.·f:~.. ~-(: · ·~... !'.. ;-: .. -::; \ 1.-j \
• , ·• f :• .. '''"• •' .... t . J't' a.· : • ' ~ •• ' 'I · \ ' \. ~ .. r-1 • • • • • .:. ·• : ... . • =" t·· ., ..... ,.;.· .. r. .. •. ' I • .. ........ . ' . . . . . •···· ' . . . ....... .. 1· ............ ~ .......... T .. .,.1 ........ i ..... -... . . ' :-. ' ':· .. ..
p. . . . ·. ,. .: . . . !·. . • '. ••• I . . . ; I ; •
0 ,. . :· . .. .. :' : ·t·· :. "': ..... :. . . . ' . : . \ ! \c ~.· P-4 • ' ........ , ........ ,.,.,._ ··-=--.. ,.._ .. ·-·· _ ...... -...... ,~... .. • .. .
• I •' ---• .: :,,·, '•:•1\P;~: ~~~:.. ·:.: ~ fl • :·.:-: i; .• t·.'• , I
..
• -~
• • ..
..
0
. . ,.
•
...
.. ..
•
I .
~
•·
...
J(
•
' ;
1
.', .. :,•i-t • ~ i'1 :·;::-: ··r ·r.; ' ,
• -t • f... • t1 t '· •' • .. r • • •• ,,., • ' •, •, ' • '•r • .,._ • •
· ·-·,. ; ·--· ~ ·:.~~·.:-.. f-~;-ft~::r~tr~:,~f;i :~·IF; : ~,:=:~-1~:·:?: ·:~~~ .. [ _: ··~.. · ·,· ·: ... I"
I
' • • • ; ..
• . ! .. · '.~ .... -. :.,,. •. :. ·;._ ·.-.:!.";.,4':a"{ •• ::.·'·::-t.· :.:*·~~·1..·, ••• ~· ;s . t. '! .......... ~ ......... :-;~·-:·-4·r.·J~~tT· . .-:~'!;,~·~: .. :·-~r!~~:-t.-:.::-~~··.:1··~~ t" .. r . \· . , ... • I , . •· ... ,.. . . •.~ .•. r. ... : • .... ,.~ • ,: . : .: .• • •• ·~· .t· • , •
• f. .:. t•! . \ .• ; t:··r.; .::• ·~·.,.· ._'•• '; .. ! : ......... : .:•: ... :\.' • . I I . \ . ·; ·--··,:·::-.. ·-:;~?~·:: ·~-;:-.:::!i': :-:~ · .. :-: ... ,~:::;.· . '.7": r::· ~t:·, ·: .... i . ... ... .. .
•• • ... •'" : ••• ,, .. ' • .. ~' ...... co !1 .. .,: 1.~'1"' : " 1• · ... : .... ,a; ... ·.· .·· .·:!'.!-":,; ... ·.~ ... :··<.;·.: .. :,.~·-·~~~,, .:'.;··· ..... ' . -·-·· .......... ·--.. -· .... ~, .. ...., ... ~---~,;.;-. ---. .,.._ ....... _ ......... ., ... .
•• ;. •••• • ... '11 t' .: .. .-:·-, .......... , ... ···t-·f .. · •. , . ~ . . . . . .... .. ·r··-:}. = ·:! ···~.,.. ·'"".!: ........ : h. ~······ . . . .. • ... . • • • • .••• ,.. •.. •• . •. •• ....... •.• • ••. ~ I ,. I . . · ~. ·· .·~·r.:~· .. · .:-~ :•;~ ,·..:··;. 1.:., ··~· .... ·.•.r··l :~ .... ~~.·t~ :·.!r· ....... ' · .. :. : · ·. ... -... ~ .~ ..... _ ............ __ , ·-·--... --,.,~· .. ·-· ....... __ ... _ .:;1.1.!,... .. --.. :..J.r--r .. · .. ~·~ ..... -~--·r ... . . I . ' . t . I .. I • • • ~ • ••••• '; ~ .... '· • • • • ·.: • • t • t.
• I t t 'f I " .. ~ f, t ~ • t ;', • ! • o I • f t : o. t '• t t I I • o ; t I -o
. . . : ..
' ....
.. • • •
. ...• . . .
• •
"
.. """:'• . i . .......
... .. ,.
•
-• . .
Cl
• •
~· .. •
• ..
I.
'
•
••
'
~
• • .. .. ....... :_ .. _·~--=-·t ... r:_ ... :~. .; ... :.t· .. :-:_ ... .....:. .:·.:.:;.: . .:..-l: .... :<r., .. !_ ..... ~ .... : ..• ·-· ••. .... ·i .· .... , . , ...•. :·.~.:·;,·.: . .-.:., .• :··t-····· ..•.• ·:.; ...... r···-~·' ' . . . ' . . .. .. .. ; ·:. . . . .. , .. .... ~-.. : .,, . '• •t -, " . ' . . . ' o-• ~ t : l t 0 • ~ t f , II,; • :t .. 1,+ •• !':0 : •. '• '": ,... • n;~ :•., " ~ 0
''" t •
0
' t ,. o-•• o. f'
0
• •, ., : t • ~ ~· '\ • • ····r-·· .. ' . ... ...............
' · .• I' .i - : ••• f ' •" • •• • •"'' • • .:.;::,, ''' t• "J'.> r' ~···· ... ,;;,,..: I• '· ; J ·;··.::· ·': I • .~ .. , ·• I .. •· ,.,, • '· I ' · • . .. ···--·~-· t..... ,.,.j]-'1.: ... -,...., -"'!""' l.r,...... "'-7'[i-.. -.......... .,. .. '-···· ..... --· .. r·-· ~·-····. ' ,... ..,, ,.. . •. .. .... ,f.. ~ . ' .. ~,-. .... . .. ' , . . . . . ' ' . . . ..
• .. • I ....... ~ ••••• •• ,,:, ,, '• t •• .. ~ ., .. ~. 1'~ ..... ,,.,..., "','•··; ........ ,., .. I . . f.' . ' ,. ~. .... ·. ................ ,.... .... ·-.-..... ~. ·~ -........ ---·~ ........ --............. .._ .... "--· .. , ......... -·-·· .......... -.. !' .-.!..-..~.__. ··---......... j.-'--". .... . .. ,. ... , . ,.. • ... • • • .... •• 1\. ~ ,, ,«~;, .•••• ,., t• ..... :, .... ~,. : ..... ..'.~.... • ~··' • -... •• .. • • .-I • • •• • I
, . 'I .. t·'" ., · .•• ~t· •.• ,., .... .~ • .,.. ·; ,,, ""· 1•···· .... I t. .. . · .. ·.·; .. ·.t. .•. ~ ..... : .. : ... :·.;~l!···~ ;:,~·.i,;. ... ·.;_f· :orr: ;f;:.~ ..... ;·•:ir· ·~ ... ~ .. ' ...... ·. ·..~.1.·~·.1 . :·=~ I ' • .: I' ·•J ····~·· ... ---!• ~.,. •. ....... ... ....... t. • • ' ~ . . . ., ,. . . . . '· .. . I . . ~ . : t·!· ,': .. :· .. ...,, , -:.,, ·· .. ·:~: (.· .'':,. ''!."'',·· .:. .. : .... fJ!.::":.~~·~· ·.:tu "';' , .. :· 'J·' ..• · .. '•. ':;· '=f·-i .:.. "..."it\ •• • • -· ·.-·-··--.... _ .. _,_.,.:.1.~~-r~ .......... :--t-· ... ,0:-:'P·i:r·~··f:-: "'~ -... ~ ....... : ······r~ .... -.... :: .. -... ·--~·-· ~ .. .:...--:...:... _ .. 1 ... -~ ., .... : 't ~. ,, .... !. ~.,-: , ...... :r .. · .. • .. ~~·"t .. ~ ·~·· ~::s .... :•:·~· :.~·: .. t~J· .·r"': : . •.• •. I •···'· .. : :.· ... , . r·· ,
t" .. : 'I .... ,, • ~t. t· .. ·'I ),"· . ·'··• ":t;. ~·. ,. .-,"' .:;1. _,. ~ .. i' !:··, • • ' .~. . f· .. . • • •• ~ , .. }·' .. •• ~ ""-•: roo, • :, • • I • t • • o ~ • •, ' •' .., I,. , I' • • : I • ': • : t • ' • • ••' ..
-------~~~~,·~~--~~.------~~--.... -.~~----~----~--.. ------~~~--~--~------~--~--~~--.. ----------~~--~----~----
, • .. • . t • .• .• r • • ·' . • , ••
.,! ~~ t··T" .1.! .. -. .1. .... 'I • • ., -I . ..... ' ... ·~· I' . • . . . • •• I .
' .•. · ·t;j· · ... tit7: -~ ~c~-•. 4
·H 1 • •
'3 • ·-....
lk .{j . . . . . '. ("") .
.....
l . .
I ..
"
. ~
. .
. .. ,. ......
I .. .
"!,"~ ........ ..
:•
• .J-·
• J • ~~·.J Jr. .. •
I
..
... I .. .!-...... --.
• I • •,
,---·~--·'----~··-··--·-.. -. .
. .
' . ....... ~ -·-· I~
.. ..
..
..
'
. i . . ..
J
I
..
......
"'· .... --··· ...... • • t•
.......
.·
-·
i. .
· .
-.. ,.-·-
. _, -
................. -.....
•' ....
•
.. ; ~-
. •, _ .............. . ~ .
•••
--r
' ... . ... ... ,.. ......... ___ .__ ..... _.,.
"•.. :. . ·r.: ··-··· ....... -.. -.. .. -..... ---. . . . .
jrt.;}j ,-, . ·~:,1 :~:. . ,,, i . '' t· '.J-
~--· : ~--~~~.:tl ~
\.....> ...
0
en
0)
r=-t
lO
0)
(1) • _.
" I
I ,
.,,
-·
f)!: J'·~.
.... .-.,. l
FUTURE POPULATION ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (%)
STATE: •
LES-GL
LES-GM
MES-GM
HES-GM
HES-GH
RAILBELT:
LES-GM
MES-GM
HES-GM
..
.·
1980~
1985
2.1
2.7
3.7
4 .. 9
5 .. 5
2.7
3.7
5 .. 0
1985-'
1990
1.0
1.2
1.6
2.8·
3.2
1.3
1.6
2.6
..
.•.
'•
. ..
1990-
2000
1.6
2.2
2.5
3 • .1 ~·.
3.5
2 .• 2
2.5
3.1
' I
. ·
·'
~
. . . ..
. . . .
·~· ·. i:~:.:~
2000-
2·010
1.0
2.0
3.3
1.0
2~0
3.3
•
• ...
• .
' .· ... . .
. ,
· .
...
1980-· ..
2000 .' .::.~: . . . . .
I' ....
. t
1.6
2.1
..... · . 2.6 .. . ·-3.5
3.9
2.1
2.6
3.4
.•
. . . . . . .. .; ..:· . ·' · . . . .. · .: ·, .-.
· .
.. ·.
. . ~ .
. .
..
·' ' .. . . .. . . .. .. ....... . · .
1 •
· ....
. .
. .· . . :. . .. . . . , ..•.. : " .. -. ..
• •. • t. ' .' ... . . \ . • ..
. ..
'·· ; ... . ' . . . '. . ~.
. .. . .
I
' · .. \
.. . . . .
~ .. .o
,• ..
..
YJ •••
0 • ~--. ,
•.
L..!. :. _:t __
r·~ i ·.
' ,._. . ..
,• 0
•• ..Ia.
p· l .. . .. .. .,;: .. · .. , . . . •• t ~
(
i ...
f t;, .. .. . ...• ' . tl ~-
j .:
oe •
• 0
#.
..
..
• . ' . ..
~· ::1 .·: 1:980
..
l :
0 • '
•
I,
I~ .
..
• k .. .. • • .~.x.·
••
• •
• .. .. .,
•
•
•• .. • • • .·.
. .
..
: j
I'
• 't r
. ' . ..
! . . !
;
..
I \ •"
! f' ...
..
i ..
.. , . . -
. •
•
•
·.·
•
•
• tJ.
• .. • •
• •• • • • . ~ ..
•
·.'
\., . ...
l ' . . ·.~ .. l .. '" ..... . ..
:; .. .. ~ .. . . .
·,. r ·.~
t -~ ( •
• •
• •
" •
•
• •
··' '.
• • • -
. • •
• • •
,_., ..
t • •• ... . .
,.
·· .
···-----·· -
•
I'
.. . ,.
•
..
... \..
I'
, . .,
•
•
• I
• • ..
0
,·
.......
•
'\ ,
'·
•
.............
.. ! • . . •
• •
-~ :
. '
• I
••
. :
:·
•
..
..
•
.·
..
. . .
• ••
• • • •
.:
. ; ..
.......... . ' .. .. ....... .... : .. '
..
. -
· .
·:J:.: i. . \t· .. ;
..
,. . . ·":'-·.
• •
.·
. -
-· ..
! .
i i. .::·~~
I ' ... =· :
. .. ,
•• .-
;.
'
.. ; 0 • } ,. ;,· •
i • : "!:' !'~. . -• -····-+= --~-• t i
r r
·-::i·-·-i' .
. .. i . :
!. --;-· I-·· ' ..
·-~ f •• • i I ·. • --' : .... -J-: .... ":· ~ · .. •
.. i . . .! •. .. : ......
' .• I . • !. •. ·---.~f~~ ;·-:-
. . •. !
.. ~ l •• -... : . -·-· . . . · . ! :-:
. ..
.. ; ... -. .
' : .
. "'~.
. i .... ( ... ..
f
..
.. . .
;;-·: :-.:· T :--:
. i-:.: :·· -....
'··:·--~ ::..· -l' • • . ... :· ,, .· -.·
\! ' •• "
FUTURE , HOUSEHOLD
. STATE:
LES-GL
LES-GM
MES-GM
HES-GM
HES-GH
RAILBELT:
I LES-GM
MES-GM
• HES-GM
..
.
~ .
I •
(,.'
~ 1:' d.1 r~
ANNUAL'GROWTH
!1.980-
1935
2 .. 8
3.4
4.3
5 .. 6
6.1
4.4
4 .. 8
5.9
.·
RATES (%).
. 1985-
1990
1.6
2.1
2.7
3.7
4.3
2.1
2.6
3.8
1990~· .
·?000 ::.
2.4
3.0
3.3
.~ ..
4.0
4.5
..
3.0
3.5
4.2
. ...
...
~ i./""'""!!'R
2000-•.
2010
1.0
2.Q
3.3
1.0
2.0
3.3
•
.. .
•
·.
t·· •• .. .
..
'••·
. ~ ·. ·•
' . Or·. .
,. . .
-•• £'. .... 2. 3 .....
2.9
3.4
4.4
4.8
3.2
3.6
4 ;5
.·
. ' . .
'• .. ..
..
. · \
. ... ' .
'•
.. ., :···.· ..
• :•, •• •: ', t'' .... . .. · ...... ,., . : ,."; ,.
. i. .• : ·.'·· •.• ·~ ·,.
o , I
. '
\ .
.-
. .
..
·"· .· •I'
• :<ro•
,.. .
.. .. · ... .. .
, '· •.,-tl,:,·; I \: I Of 'lo' ~
••• ,... • • .. ••• 4 ••• ~ .•· •• ~ • -...
-. I ... · '-·• ', •• .
... ,
·. ~··· ,. . ..... ·.. ":. :. ·:: .:· · ... : .
•••• ~· •••• ,,,. • •• * • • • .... 0 ••••
·C ~ •• ~.: ~ : ·: • •• •,. . , • • , •• • •
:.·.·.· .• to, t ~~I: 0 4 0 .. ' I • • 'o • ' ,• o t ,\.• I 01 ... '""' ,.. .. "' '. ........ . . . ....... ..,..... .. . . .. .· ····.·:·:'"" ........ :-:·:.~·· ·~ .. ~ .. :·"i".~ · ... :··.:· .
• "; ., I
11
1 • o I-' rl. \ o ., ' 0 t I • "., "1' 0 ~; o 0 \ I -..
• • •• I .. _. .... ··----· ·' ••.• II ·I· . . . ' . .... ... • . . . . . ..
·" I • I •• • • o I •• • .. , 1'"•, o • of • o o e• ~ • "o • t • • •::,.. . ·_. ... • ... ,.1·····,·~.'.~ I"• • •· ••• ,. ... ;. .. ···~ ••• •! •. • ...
"' ·•· • •'• ~t • ""' ''• t II • ' 1' ' j ., ..• ··~:.: ... ,.·~ , ... r-·~. • •: !, ........ ·r· .·--... :· "'( •· .····•• .. . • ,.. • -.... •,·!; I, ··:s..; •, ll.tJ\~· '·'.. 12 .-•. r •.• •· • .... , •. ·• .~· . ~· ·• . • ~··· .:.·... ;• ............ ;•• • .• : .,: • . t'' :•f '" :\.~ ~.1· !: ... :~.~:.-..;.'• .; t'l 1:. ' .... •. :•,.:'PI·;,: •• : ~!!"'·:,, .... ··•· ~· 1 .~ .... :··· ... , ·~ •. 7.;1~·'· ...... ' . :r; ~~: ·,~ -:~_.::· ;.. .::·· -~~:' . : ~ .· ,·
... ·:. ··~ . ~ .. . .. ·.
.. ·.
..
-..
I
. ?.I
...
FUTUP~ RAILBELT HOUSING STOCK·GROWTH RATES
LES-G!-1:
Single Family
Multi-Family
Mobile Home
Duplex
MES-GM::
Single Family
Multi-Family
Mobile Home
Duplex
HES-GM;
Single Family
Multi-Family
Mobile Home
Duplex
1980-
1990
2 • a
2.9
2.9
0
3.3
3.8
2.9
1.3
4 • 5
5. 5
4.7
1~3
. .
. . ·.
·1990-·
2000
2.8
3.9
2.8~
4.6
3.4
4 • 0
4 • 1
4.1
~ 9 .l •
4 • 6
4.0
5.8
.:
,.
(%.)
2000-
2010
• 9
1.0
1. 3i'·
.a
2 • 0
2 • 2
1.9
1.6
3.4
3.2
311
3.6
..
: ... :. . . , •. ..
. ..
..
#
..
·' I I
1980-
2010
2.2
2 • 6
2.3
1.8
2 0 9
·3. 4
3.0
2. 3 .
3.9
4 • ·4.
3.9 ..
3.6
..
.• •• 4
•.
'·
. , :·. .. :. ..
• • , .. • :1 ....
• I ;J.-·· . ....
·. ..
.•. :: ... .... ,_ . .
. '1.'
o I •I o :"' f o l:.t. :•· 0:
; • ·-. i t . .
• :.· .
· .
\,'
..
..
... ~ . .·
,::: ..
'• . . . . ,, -. ,. ~.
·.
,, .
..
... ·. . .
~ . · .
.
~. • .
~ ........... ,.
••• F
~>
' .
J
E
fl
If r,
r·' r t!.t
r~.::
b
(.
.. !
"
IJ:.3
.. . .
. .
..
-
.·
Utility Forecasts
--Forecasts ed for
Low; Medium,
governma~t expenditure •
present
High economic
·.
...
·•.
3
. . . ·.
scenarios,
. ' -·. Forecasts by End-Use Sectors·are
.. . . ... .
.•
, .
·.
. .. . ·.
•
.. ... ·_.~
; ;_.. ..
·:
·.
. .
94
...
. -
·-~
·:; : ..... :.,
'";. ·"' : , ...
• •• ,_ c ~ .. ' .. :.. ~.. .· ... . .
i.e. .. .. ~-:..~ ':; ---..
•. ..
• • .
·. -·
..
·I· ·'.
. . ~
. ·.t '.
~ -. -~ .. I (j
RAILBELT UTILITY SALES PROJECTIONS _!_Y __ EN_D __ U_S_E __ S_EC_T_O_RS __ -rf~~J MWh)
1980
1985
1990
2000
2010
Resi-
dential
1117
1350
1533
2244
2706
Annual
Growth 3.0%
Rate
L 0 W GROWTIJ
Conun-
ercial
Indust-
'rial
1248
1541
1670
2003
3410
\
3.4\
. ..
Misc.
251.
53i
63\
3.1\
..
Total
2390
2921
3237
5100
6179
3.2\
...
. .
~ODE RATE
Resi-
dential
1117
1533
1638
2487
3310
3.7%
'.
. .
...
~onun
ercial
Indust-
rial
1240
1718
1.923:
3184
4561
4.4%
. . . . . . .
. .
,' I ..
GROW'l'JI
Misc.·
33
38
59
81
4.0
I ' •
..
Total
2390
3171
3599
.5730
7952
41%
•
' ....
·. .·
••• :, .• • ,.':·•t
,. .. ,.. . . ·· .. ·; ...
. 1117 1248 . . :
• .. ... . . . ·':' ·: .·.
1482 .. 2042 ..
1815
2955
4481
4.71
. .. . .
.·
2423
.4163
7136
6.0\
..
. ·' ·. ,. . .. . . ~ ..... .. . •. ~'
·. ' ... ·· .... . ·: "' •''' ... . . ' . .. ..
. : . .
. ... ~: :~ .. :
: .
• ... a •• , • : • .'
..
'•
.. . '• , . ') , ..
! ..
. .
. ::iii
.
Misc. Total
25 2390
37 3561 . .
44 4282
74 7166
119 11736
5.3\ 5.4%
'I .
~ ~· ..
··.-r~···-! i
j
••• r ·-t· . .. .. ;
. I . .
·.
..
. , . ·. ~
i
• I
..
I I . !· . ..
• I
. ~ i ' • • • I .,
: ··" ~ . . ..
' .. ·-··s· •• .. i '
I
! . . ...
l . ' . !' . ..
r
..
·:-1 .. . .. r
.. : ... · . . ' ' . . ~ .. '
i• -··i· ! .. ;..
i ·:.~· 1 .
I -, -*•
.. ..
!
.. ..• , .
·,. .980 .. 1985·
l .·.: .. -... J:...~·. r~---~-. .... • •• •• •• : .~ r · .: • r
~~ "7 •• : r-~ .. ~.,
~~---: .. --:·r·-·:" -~·~·,···.:-·-·
. . ..
.. I
:.
. ..
:•
' .. . ....
1990
I
·.
.. . .
. ' ·. , ; ,.
I9SS
• .! :
.,
; .
·l
• t
I
.• I·
. ..
'. . , .. / . ..
I • I
• 'I , ...........
...
,.
I
;2000 .. .
i
I .. I r , .
... ' . !
I •
..
-.
! ... ·
.i ··-· I
(· .. :
; '· ; ·-...... -.... ...:_ ,
} . ,
I
f • ~ I I , ..
. ' . . . .. .
1-
2005;.
t.---L
~-·:~ 2010'
·.;-.. .-J-. -.~ ... :,
I • • I • .. • ..
• t ..... l •.• ... • ' l' • . L' • ··• •
• ·.:.. l ~
:'••
....
.:-•• • ...... ~ -1
~· ... ,.·:. ·:.
.... .:-.. ;.·: ~ . ~ .. . ~ .. . ..
,~
l.
,. =.· .•• r1 ........ ·· .. ,.
.. "'!'.-...... , . "\·• ..
.... : ~ .. : -· -
... ·· .... ~
.... ··•
.~-
:.·
'
~ . .... .
... ~~ . ·
~ ........
..
MODEL LI~IITATIONS AND IMPL!C..~TIONS .· .·· ...
; . . . . ; . ..
•
'
KA---.1!>
. t·
.....
......
•.
·.·
.. . :
..
...... ......
· ..
. .... .I
..
' ..
·. ·. . ~
..
97.
·.
.,
~... .. ...
•; :~ .·: .. ;.". =. ~ .
··~·· , 1. ' -.. -~. . ... · ·::-:· .. : . ~z~· .. ..
.• ·=· . -............ .
. ·
\
. ~ .. ·~.:.: .:"'-:. ·-
_... • :0 ......
~ '.·
. ~!·c:, :4-·-~ . -, "' ...
~· ... I' ••
..."! .. •
' .•
.· · ..
. .
• I ,;.,,• . ' ~ • ..
. .
:
. . . ·
·.
I
~. ~ ..... ,·· .
.:.:: i .
~. . " . . ..
. ~ .
•. :·· .. . ;
.~,t
. .fl:,
~ . .
f . .
:
' . ~ .....
~.,
. :
... ::,
lt __ :: .l
~
&·~ .. ...
!:::::t
'
..
..
~
~ .. .. •.
. .
. .. · . . ~... ·. ,_ ~-
\ • ! .•
-. . . , .
---
.•
'!··
.·
. ,.
.· .·
. . ""· .
:
•
-
-
. ··. . · -
\ -
........ . · ....
L·±mitations
: .
Economic growth Scenario
State /·Government experid±~ure
Commercial/Industrial End~use
ing Module
Energy Mqde Split re relative
substitutapili~y of energy
ag.
J •
..
.·
.· '.,
.. · ·: : .. -~: ~.;~;·-~·~··
.. ..... • • ..._ .. ~ 1 ~ ,; •. :: .. :· .. • ...
,·
·.
·.·
.. .. ~ ....
.. . .. . · ..
Scenario
• •"'«:,
. . ' ~ ··:· .~· :·~ ".. • ..... :r. ......
·'.
' . .' -~~·~';. ~ ~;=-. :: :·;~ ... -:·:1:-~
• • • .. . .,. .z. ... : ·'-. ~·.: ,. r~· !-..; .. ~·;..: .. Fo~~cas~~· .·: ;:·~w~~)\~:~
...
; . .. -.· . -:· ...
"'l-,.
price and ...
Upper and lower bounds of·scenario set -..
·.
•.
. .
~ ~
~ L
~
~ '
-l.;:;
,i~ r·
'i.'
~·
~.'-"'
r~
~ . .
'
~
t·:'J-J.
fl' .
"""!'
~,::.~
r ..
w ~
I· ~
••• J
;. .
-.
..
..
J .
.. -··-... ·--·:III. 2 . . .... -... . .
·.
..
. ,. Implications
-Utility Sales ~orecast for upper
lower bound of existing scenario
-
I ••
. 99·.
. . ... .. -..
-... · •,..
~ ,, .· . ··-. . .. . . ; ~:\:· ~~·: .. <.
and · .. ~:: .. .-: ...
.. •• ,.•' •••• • .... 1; .. . ·. · ..... -·· .. ~ .. ~:...· "· .. ;. set :··.~ -.:,_ ·.
·'., · ... --~ :•"' .·· .
. . .
L~proved commercial/Indistrial.End-use
-
Forecasting Module • •
Relative Price and Substitutability'of~
F.uel
..
-Net Imp~ct· of above.
.. ~.: ·~ •· . :
·;. . .. . .
~ I ,
~ L i
~.
~
ATTACHMENT E
,·.';
IF l.,.,,
·--""'
ID· :" ~~ •, .. ~.'
•···.· • ... .._:_"!
~· ·? .
' ...:; "'
J
!
I ,t_t
E.,.
.... ,·
1 •
2.
3.
Subtask 6.35
Report Outline
Load Management and Conservation
Load Management and Conservation Measures
Included in ISER's Forecast
•· iSER's Forecasting Methodology
• Measures Included in ISER's Forecast
:-101
ATTACHMENT E
• Future Modification to Load Shapes and Patterns
Potential Additional Load Management and
Conservation Measur.es
• Measures Experimented and Applied in the Lower
48 States
• Possible Effect on Future Power Demand
(Soci!l and Economic Costs)
• Conceptual Plans for Additional Load Management
and Conservation in Alaska
..
Impacts of the Conceptual Plan
• On the Total Capacity and Energy
• On the Shape of the Forecast Duration Curve
4. Revised Load Forecast Data
il ··-.. . .
. . :
I .
·.
lb.!
-'
J
' .
J
~
.'l.l_';l
!
.~
·~ -
.. IL f,l
II .. t~.
~r .. ·· l .........
GENERATION PLANNING LAYOUT - 2
Subtask 6.36
PHASE 4 Objective-Final Sensitivity
A. After reviewing the results of Phase 2 and 3, analyses
of the alternative load growth will be assessed with
variable parameters. For example, the development
of a Susitna plan under high growth and low escalation;
base level fuel escalation. (8)
-103
' .1
I
1)." ' . l ' ,,..
1 .
•. . ~,
;w·
~-···-,._,
• '{!!
f .....
i
1 ' .
-----------------------·------·-·-·-··--·
ATIACHMENT F
••
I
11
I •
J
••
I
Hl\!llBIUlY STUOIC!.
Mo~?:
RECE.lVED OCT l ~'!~bY
10q .,
f..Bt<Jt&-D ff4...,~, /{/1?'-'lfN 10 .is.: ifu ATTACHt·1ENT F
SECTION .
Purpose
Techniques
tl'7-(J~,fJ0~o u->--2 '"' ·.;: .. ~, JN"A • C.1eNe?~·,-nl.·d ,P4--rwv·"'v' .:.~ S:..'-r,,:.v~) "
Standard Criteria
Purpose, The pUI·po~:c of a fcusillilily $l.udy is tn ,,~.SC!,;S the l:r:chnic«l~ ·
economic and environmentnl aspe·t$ of il particuli1r pro,jccL or progr:um previously
identi.fieci'in i1 reconnaissancr. study in sufficient di:t.,Jil .to permit a dec~sion
. .
rega!'ding licensing, permitting and. ir.vr.5tmcnt. in detililcd engin.ecring and
A~~~~o~l~~ER d·si~n. 1\ feasibility study 5hal1 include inf(.lrnr;tt.iou uhout. the· ~n·oj£:ct, iJ
3USITNA f 11. . . I ff . f 'b'1. f . -I ---s" iltement 0 il uSS\JniptlOilS \'lh1Cl il' eel the I~C:CIIHHI!lC easl 1 lt.y_ 0. !:he fii'OJCCt
~LE P5700 ... ~\ ----,. ..:.:--
~ ·alrd i1 compariltive analysi~. of <rll rNJ$Onablc illt.c:ruaUvc:c;.to the fH'ojcct undm·
DUE.NCC: NO; · ... .
,t.,--....,,t:..J---fr--!. ... ,. u d y •
= :: -_, i ~I ~ E !
. I ai I
) lz - z · ~::.J_.~_:_.\ Techni~.£!· {n) Included in the infornr.Jt.ion ilhoul l:lw pt·opcJr;r:d prnjr~c:l,
IIJC'.'l. • <J-i-i ··-;---~si~all be total pr·oject constnrction costs, tot:;\1. pl'ojc:r.t opcrilting costs, the
-~-~ c I·;-.-I
--1-J~-~--\---ciming and amount of anticiputcd pO\'lCI" output fr·nm t.hP. c:omplr.t.C!(I projr:ct, il
-l-1-:J: ·/ -:-: ··-I -!-1·1 ';>.'-~·-bdncfit-t.o-cost r·at.io, the estimuled cost of pm-:r!r' hit!:r.~c! cHI,, llypothet:icnl !:ct
-. _J__ ·-·-·-1
_ }-it.~c'\1~ -O-~ r.iurkc:t conditions, thn potential cff!!ct of tl:r. pro:il!tL r:n Lire E!nvironrr.enl crf
_1_l_:N '.-· _. -~ _j ·.~~~_t.li·t~ at·ca \'lhich will be:! Sl~ned by the projc:ct, t.hr i:vuilahility CJf ult.cr·niJt.ivu
• r. ·'' I • ~.1-1;:: :-tl
1
-f{nancing, and estimates of miljor inclirr.ct co:;t<, ilrHI br.nr.fit:~ ..
-~ lll 'l ~.
--· ---...:...!---• I
-\ }-1-·--!
-l-l--1 · ·--· (b) The statement of all assumptions l·thic:h affct.:l. t.hr. f:cnnomic feil!;ibil ity I '· ;
= ~J~--·-~f the twojccl shal-1 inc.1ude the discount rilt.t:, l'f'liltive pric:r. tt·r!nu5, tlw •, I j~ FILE-~lric load gro\'tth aS!illmptions, and the plannin~) period. The ~tnterrwnt. of
.J assumptions shall also addt·ess the hypotheticul lllitrkr:t. c:onditiun!. IIJ)On I'Jhir.h the
l
(
J
cost of pO\<ier· es'timate is based, to include dehl-equity ratio, t.c~rm of rinancing,
inte•·est r·ata.s, and inflation rate.
(c) The compurntive analysis of nltcrnilt:ivc:~·$hil11 nclctrl!:>!'., a·r il minimum,
thr·f:~ plilns: the prefc•·rrH1 pliln, t.he "hn:;c c:ilr.n" !11illl, ,1ucl t.hr. :.r!t:nncl mo::l.
.. ,~i!r"t:fr:rrcd pliln as. icJenli ficd in tha r·1~conn,1is:;ilr.cu study. tn th~ event tiH1l: il,
fCi!Slbility study is undertaken in the absence of a previous J'ecotmuissance
study completed in accordance with ___ --.. _____ :... (recon regs), ~he
.. . '
y.·:
I .
I
I
~·
r
'
•
. l
(
-106
alternative plans to he addressc!d shall he c!t'lermiru~d hy l.ht• Alit~.l:a PtH'It~•·
Authority based on availa~lc information.
{d) Dr·aft feasibility report~ !;hall IH! ,:i•.lt·ihull'd ltu· touu!wnL to the
'
affected local governnwnt~ nncl ulilitir!~·. t:o .!lf'r>r.l.t~d public l,wcllllill\o"l~t~r:. and
to affected federill ilnd st,11.c ngr.nci1:~:. Hevinwr·. :;h;dl hilve 30 day:~ in v:hir.h
t.o comment..
(c} The completed feasihility rcrpol't shull be lrnn::.mittr:d to tl:c Division
of Oudget,and Manag~mr.nt ~lith a stutemc!nt. of finclill!JS·iiiHI •;·c~t:or_:;mcndati(Jnr,.' .
(f) Copies of Lht• completed t·eport ~hall bt• di~trilnrtcd lo lhc uffctlcd
local governments iln<J:'-utilities, libi'Cil'ir.:;, itffcc:l.ed public lund man·agr:r!'., <rnd
·a ffccted fedcra 1 and s til t.e agenr. i r.!' •. ' .
meet the f:or·ecasteclrcquit·emcnts of. t.l:c r.onununity or J'C!Jion and tltilt ... :oulcl i
i·~sul t fr'om a continuation of pr~:scnt. practice~~ in the community and/or i\ I
reliance on liquid fCS$il fuel gcnet·«t.ion n~ode~;. This "basr~ cn::e" plan .,.Jill . !
' l . \
serve as a basis for compnring alternative plans.
(lJ.) Oth~r· a1ternatio.·c!s, eitln~r sinuly Ol" in c:outl>'illcll:ion, ~ihilll be in-
cor~por·ntcd into a number of plans lhilt :;,1ti~.fy lhc~ rorccil~.l.t·d rcquirc.•umnt~:. All
plans should be formulated to provide a comnon level of rcli~bility. ·1
(c) A refer·ence dat.e and planning period sllull be r.:;tabli!ihecl for economic
evaluation. The· planning period shall be twr.nl.y yCilJ'S unlP.s$ the s1~t of u1ler-.
natives under consideration warrant a 5hortet· OJ' longt~r pcr~iod.
{d) The costs to engineer·, design, construc:t, maintain il~rcl opcrntn shnl-1
be estimated for· each plnn in terms of reference year dollars, hut taking into
account rclat.ivc price trend$, if any. These rr?liltivr. pr·ic:n trnnds·'r.hi!ll he
e!ltllbl ished a.nnunlly by the flO'tiCl' Authority nCll. liltm· tllilll ,lul.Y 1.
(e) U!iing a cJiscount rate representing tlw c!.itimated long-term real cost
of money, the present wart~ of plan costs over the planning period shall he
. This dis.count rate 1d1l be established annually ty tha F'C•I·;e•· ,\u~.hnritv r!C'It l;;tA•'
I
:a
·I,
I
I
u
-107
(r) Vul'ious c:omhiniiliO'ns of illt.er·nill.ivt", o~nd li111iuq •;11,111 IH.• t·villual.r~cl to
formulute least coH plans.
(g) '1'he follo .... ·ing ind~c:ators, at i! mininum:, •;h.lll IH· w~r!rl l.o <!V<llllil.l.r!
plans:
·c 1) Econnmi c
-present worth of plan co~t
co::t of power· (hil$1! Cilsr. plan and 1.1-m most. pr·c:fcrrr.d pl;Jns,
only)
(2) E'nv~t·ortmentnl·
-t:oinmuni ty prcfernJH:es ·.
impact on .. community infr·iiSI.I'IIC.I.m·e
timing in l'Cliltion to ol:hl!l' r:.tpillll fii'IJjf!cL!;
u i.r tfllil I i ly
-wa t t:!r qual ity
fish and 'ttildlife impilcts
land usc ilnd OloJilersllip st.iJI.u•;
terrestrial impacts
(3) · Tuchnir:ill
-safety
-rcliilbility
availability
(h) The l~ypothctical market r:ondition!; upo11 1·1hich l.ht: c:or.t uf fJCJ'tfr.t
estimate is based shull be estilhlished annl.iillly b.i' t.ha flm·m1· f,uthor'ity nCJt 1.1tC!I.
than July 1.
.. t
I
j
t
f
I
I
' i
~
i
' !
I
·.
r·
..
\
••
••
' ~.a:
,,
!
!..&.
lCONOH I C l\Ni\ Yl SIS ·· /
• \ E .• \ .~ 1 i . \ a "~ r· \ \' a·: e : . ;, r; · · n · u !! :! o a.: ~ · n · ·!1 •
Attachment 112 .
... ~ . -. ·-.. . ..... . .
1 n f 1 i1 t ion Rc1 t1~ -o· ..
D i :i CCHm t f~il U: -3::
P ~ t 1·o 1 cum F ue 1 1:!.; c a 1 i.tl. i Cll: ~ , r ••
•• , ' , • I I •
'
COST OF PO\~EI~ ANALYSIS (IIYf'OTii_El ICAL t·V\fU:r.l C(1NIIf.l ION~.)
.
l.n f 1 a t ion Ra l1! .-i':::
Oebt:Equity Ratio-1:0
Cost of D~bt -H. 5~:
Ter-m·· ;~o y(·ilt·~ f'or dir::;cl .~nd ua~ tul"iJi11c! ~ie.~rH~rair~n
30 yc:a r·:; fm· cot.1 1 UJiilhu~, f:i on •.,; l.eillll ~r·nt:nt t ion
35 yeiu·s fo1· hydnw1t·c:t.t·ic: fat.i1il.'it·~-.
-108
¥ If". .
I
. ·•
I'
·I
••
•
•
••
•
Jl
---109
·.
1\ di~counl t·atL· is requit·t·d in itll t•crllll·t!ltt ,,,~.tly·.i·. !1• 1·i.1Cr· pi.Ht
bene f. t i $ " n d c o s t s t"~ c \: lll -r i n g i n d i r f < • ,. t', n 1 y " " ' · ·. Cllt ll n , · q u i ... d I c ., .t h tl •• i ·. .
Tht' choice of di$COunt r,1te is \t much d<·h.tlr·d l.opi(. ~.t1111P "~'~JW: U1ttl:
tJie appa·opriate r~tr. is the "opporlunily c.cP.t." t·Jtc!, l.ltitl. i··., (Jfi(· ·,·:hid•
equils thL' rille of r~,.'l.ln-11 on the next l~l"·~.f. ·i,~t.y·.lu:r•rd .. OIIH't ... dr·qw·
Lhul a 1·clJtivc1y hl\v(·t· "~uci«l t·imr: pt·t~ft!l't'lll.v'' r.1t.1! :.l,nt;ill he· li!:E.·tl.
A SC.'CCnd i~sue is \·:hl.-lher J "rcol" or· .. nomit!.tl" cli• .. tounl. t· • .t.•· i·. li!<:·;l_
uppl·opt·i<e. In nthet· \·ilH·ds, ~.houhJ ·infLii.int: l·t:: im:llidr·d .:·. J·drt <d
the an~lysis?
l·!1·. DJvid ReuUflll!, U:cn Chief c:r Rc~~~~c1t t:l! tu1· _t.hc! [J·i,:i··. i()f, c.·~
Cconornic Enter·pr·i$(~ of the: Dep,trtm<:rlt. of Cnuum.·n:r~ itn~l l:r~t!JH;mic. (ic·vr:1op-.
i:~ent., l"l!SflOUdCd t'O our l'I~QUCSt for· Vt!l<.f.1nCC' \·:it.h i! I'C(C·flU!!!:IHic!l:ion t.n u:;f.'
the murket yield 011 (nrpor,1tc· l::Clt1dc; in a r·i~k rli~~.::; t.h.-11. n;11qhly pitrit11c·1:.
the 1·isks inht't·en;t in '.'lll' f)l'O.ict !~:. 1\c:r:onlinq to l~i'.lllllri·. I!H·•.r: l'1ll.r:·~
ure li~U411ly 2.5 tLl J.S JH'I'Ct~nt .1hOVl~ lilt: dllf.it.ij•;det! ·lnur;-lr:trh dVt:l'il~Jt·
~·~tc l1t' infl.:ttiou .
f<t!\1umc. on t·ha i S$UC of rer1l ver·su:; r~on: i II•\ 1 J'C1Lr.s, s til Lt.:!i: "if th!::
dollar amounts to t•t: discounted ~!n\ in noruindl t.~~r1n!; (curTent. cinllitr$),
then the discount rate should be ~\ norn1nal t"illt!. l f t·ltc: do.l1~1t" i.llliOWll:;
La bt' dfscounted «n~ in n~ul term~ (con~:tilnl. do11itr;.), l.ht:rt tiH~ ci·i:.c:cJtllll:
r;\Ll! should be ~'l n?~l (influlinn c1dju!;L,~d) l'dli!. II: dot::; liCit llli."lttcr-
\vliich of thC' t:\·to chuit.:C$ you adopt. ~Hl\:t· yr)u cln nol \·l<trll. to do 1:,
discount noliiioJl dollar· Jmounr~~ \·lith a l't';11 ird.t·n·:~l. t'idr· ,,,. 'li<:P vc:r~ .. i:.': --
Rc~tJJile t•t:comnend~.:tJ thJt. the /':.I'A II:~(' c)?.:. l'C'l'C:Pill. n·d'! cii•;cCllinl:
rJ tr..
Tile £1 e c tt i c Po\ ... e 1· f{c ~a~tl rcll In!; t.-i tuU!, in .-1 1 ~Ji' ·( 1•uh I·; c c!l. ion
t:n t i t l cd "1 C!Chll i \:c"ll (\~ s l'~: smen l ltu i dt-." , rcCOJI'fi!("•IJI.i •·. !.ltd{, I f (d" ,. It:<. 1.1" i c.:
u t ; 1 t 1 t c s ~~·( Tf} -:J·-·st'li.c1}.-· 1-!i-b c -ii1 ~.,--m~·d t: HlH! r c ; 11 ' 1~1 1.-i 011 ; •• Lot. ; , HJ n, ~0 : r-: c t.<: c.1
ill· fu tm·c cos ~s, in f1 a 1: ion must n 1 :~n l:·t~ IH~fJ h~c.lt·d ·j 11 U~t· <.cJ·.I. (If moflei',
l'C~,ulting in J \\Cigl:tt~d CC.I$t of CupiL\l al :L.~: pt·t·c:r.rtl: ... " llli;~ is
lhiS\!O on il 50~ tlcbt-r~quity rut:i<' ru~d C:l)rHli!:ic:n~: io ltJ7,·.
J\ third U!it.~fu1 rr.f'cren<:e i:; 11 rl'Pt'~rt. l~ltl;illtci 'itt.Jl.J;,f•fli of Ildl;-tlifJii
.i.'.l the_j_1c~e.~'J2!!'.£!~.!-.~>l~_!J .. ~~~-~:~y~tt.}~!:.L~!.!: .. \'!!~1. ~!·vr·l i :"• d (n·: t·. i ri !:iy!\ .
J\nJlY$CS lor thr. f.ll't...:lrlc: lJt.1l1L\' ln<lu~;!1·v. 11. \·let~. pt·,·pt!rr·(~ !li 1'.!/'' I·~~
11w-· Hiic1~!;:·1rc~Jliiatc.;i·j, .. I.nit~,iF;; 1 (;;, ...... -Yl~·;!· ,.;.f!,;,., . . ·" ... 1 ,.~i I : •• 1.: , , ... : .. r,
n'lation is ~:.'Stilbli:~liec! bel.\·!e,·n ·in(!.JI.inn .1nd l.lu· tn·.l 11f i!!!•r:t'/ (i.r·.,
di~,count r·~te) thu$· jH'Ovidin~t ;, llll'rlll'·. ol IIJ.JlJ:I.i ll:it•IJ Ulfl' i·.l: 111 y l.t·l.\·t•·r·t.
di$COunl J·Jtt~!': and Vilrinu:~ ;1~!;un11 d ·inflal.i11n r .air··. t~Jld .. ·.··'''""' ,. l!t.tl
,;ost-bt'ncfit ~Jl<11y$h, l'l:'~;ult!; \ll'l' not !Ji.·J:.t·rll.,.,,ttr'.t· nl i,;,,.,,·.i·.lt·Id
it~Sumpli<>rtS 'onccrnin~ infli1tiCHt 1\rHi di~·.ctHIIIt l'.il.t··;. ilrv hi·;if;l'it:ctl
cost of ll!<Jney to t.ht~ utility indu·;t1·v \·nL!: c":nd ·,·:itlwut· inl i.:lic.rt i·.
~x,uuined Jnd the J'Jti<H·:~lle for~. 3~:: ~ii~~cnwtL ,.:tt1: to !1(· ll'.r·d i11 cc~·.l:-·
llcnefjt anoly5es r·,:i~tinu to Lht~ prt>dw·t.-iPi! <":i r·li·r!.ricit:t i·. ;11·c:!.<:nl.c':tl."
~~
I
·I
I
I
·I . '
. .
I ~
~I .
·I
:I
I
I
I
Page T\·:u
Dist:t'unl Rate
44~ ·.
•' 110
Rcr. mnn1:nd a l i 1:" : Few tlw i'" q "~-·· 111 '·' ""' '"· 11. ""', I.Y ·. i !. i u ' , · t: ''"' ,.·, i ·. · sanc~~ml"i'l!5ST&11"1ty s l.udi 1'5 <:l•lhiw: l.l'd •!tn· i IHJ I \' n' 1"1•:.1.:. illld bt:lll: r i 1.:.
Sll.!ll be calculiitt'd in con$L.tnl dc.•ll,;J"·. and .:i·.•.Piml,:!l w.iw:" .. ,.,,;if .. d.i$<:ount :·Jt.~· of 3.0 Pt'r<:L'nl.
I •• ·z ..... :
~:y'" ... ·I· ..
. I
I
:I
. ·I
:I
I ~I
~.1
I .•
I
I
:I
;I.
I
i
I ,.
I
I,
. • . .
-111
I
The t•cl,l.tive prict~ l.n:·nd~~ .11 :"t•rt in~i I" ''l•·t I ',,.,, .. "''' ~ •. ,.,,,.,.,," ''' ~n ecunmnic uth\lysf~ t'l'~!;trd1a~~·!·J PI I.IH' .~·.·.t:n.,.r it•r:·. J.:.HI•· .:lu:11i liH· ,,~!l·r;tll
inflation r.1tt.!. l'h~~~~ t•t."lativc• pri&:t' l.lt.tn•:t". dl'• la:l],·•.! .·:r.iLIIir.n rates .
The cost item of pa·in:,1ry concct·n lri t.n·11p: oi l'~~Cillill ion i·. pr:t1·o-
l e:um f u~ 15 , and in ptl!'t i c li 1 o1· t.i it'!~ e: 1 o i 1 i\tl(l fut• 1 u ·j l . Dil f.i• l:c··, :1u rc:c!~;
Inc. pt·ojccts "that the aver,1gr: \·:m·ld (~;q>ort pr-icl~ of cdl \-:1.11 ri~e
beth·er:n 1sr.o and 1990 at an itvcrtlg<: ilrHH~t'll r;iLt: r;t· i~but·t :L!; ('et"cc:nt:agc.-.
points higher thiln oven1l1 U.S. in fl tt t ion." Th i!. 'is ft·om liH! 's ~J :~. b.Q.!lS_ T e t·m R q_ v i eN , $ p r~ i n ~1 I 9 80 .
Nonfuel cost items muy Jlso hilve price ll'l·'tJd!; Ch11t: df'(htrt. ~~Olli<:\oJhill.
f1·om thl? ovc~t·il·ll. infl.1tion r-ute. The maunitude pf ·;w;h c;r:pir1·t.11n:~: ore
n:l.lli\'l!ly minor, hm..tevet·, and tht~· in:pi1ct ol i~JI!t~riny l.ht.::m nn l.hc outcouit: of ~co.nomic \'lnalyses is nil.
Heconmclldil.tion: The c:nst of c.liC'~iPl oil. rlll~l oil i'tltd r:Lhc~r l''.:tt'(i~
lel;m fuels Shull be:.ns:;uu:ed to C!;Clllittt.: ov~r the! llt:XL l:'f!t!tll..Y Yt:~tr:~ tit cl
ratt! of 3.5 pcr·cent <1bove inflation. Tht' l'7~.c~llation r~:te~. for ot:tJer
iuels Shilll.bt"· zero tm1c5S.$p(·!cific r.o:,t ~l.udic·:; inditc'\Lc! olhen·ii~c:.
The cscalat·ion t"utc~ fm· 1Wn-fucl ccst itc·m·; ~~ha1l he r.~:;!illl:!r·d to be ~~r·o.
-·· •••: .. ·······. __ ...--.,. ... -.... _ ...... ., ..... ----·~-·------... -··-......... ·-__ _..,. ... .......,_ ........ ---· ........ -· •· ...
;,{ .. . I .. . · . ..
-112
.I
•
I
·I
~I
.I
.I
I
-I
'I
•
I
I
\\Q , • • \ 1'1'.41\f.ll.'f!'l'l•
1
!\ n··::·na.ti!.Q," LJ'II''l' , u , • ~ .~ I'\. , c .,. 1• I} 11 u •, r.:.... -.1 " .. u "" ., ; a u
I
lrlrt 1'\·1 I t:N 1\J\ 1 !: ..
Yihcn~u$ for an ct:onomic ,Hiu1y~.i~: l.hP in I \.1: ion l'dl.l· i·. II(·'. I .t·.~.nnlf·d
lO bC \)'J.., the COSt Of jH'Wt'l' til\;'ll)'!~i', II:U~~~ ,\:,·.ul!:,· ,·1 t',lft~ td. ini !.11 i1111 l.t.1
uetL!rntine the nominul cn~t of r:nl!1"9.'1 in Clll't'l~n: dui li:ti':,. 'Iii<! lllll~J l.r~l'n;
20-30 )'~!iH. t•utC CJf inl'1\\linn hu~~ ilVl!l'~l'.JC:d tl'.:.'fy•·.u· \·lhilr· Uw 111/()'c:
c>.pet·h~nccd u 7%/yr~;.-..r t"Jtl~ of inflt~tion. t.:vr~n tiiiJU~Jil t.l11~ curn:nt ritl:t!
of infl\ltion is in C:!~~cess of 10~:, tht~ 1on~ t't~t::: r;ll.r: o: infl.:tiou i~:
forec~s t to bt! bC!t\·ic.;~ll G. ~;x i:!lld Bi~ dependent upon t.hr: r·t~l':)pt:c:l. j V{~ of lhr:
fo1·ecasting sour·cc.
• IU.:COt·1NtNUATION: For· the pm"posc.: uf c:ost of l".i\'.'1 .. ,. drw1y:;·i~: rlnl·inrJ FYi.!l,
the long turm g(~net"t11 inflation t•Jt~ ~;h,ill IH: ;t··.··.lsnrPd I.e.' br~ /:!· ..
LH1l T : E qu { T Y 1\/\ T 1 0
The l.iebt: equity i··\\tio for Ci.lpilal projc:c;l. finunc1nu <it:pc;ndc; upon
the cost of the project and the ultcrnativcs avt~ilable to f·in~tnr:e the
projt~ct. REA cooperatives have access to 1~£1\ lo.-~n fund:·~ ilt 2~~ untl 5%,
clnd FFir.llnd CfC long tt'l1li financing currently i!l appn.ix·imitlt:1y 11X .. Thr:
PO\iet· Authority ilnd utilities hove acc:cs~; to t.,lx <!Xt~mpt: fin<H1<.:in9 se:clirt·d
by the revenue of the JH'Ojects or in ~~omc case!. ~!tlc:lt'iH1tr:t"!d by CFC at
r·at~s varying betHeen g: ,1ntlll~:, drop<:ndin~J uponruarkel'. c:ondit.iCins. 1\.il
,or t.he$t~ il1tct·natives l'r.!prescnt dcht. finnncin~J. rn ~1l:IH•J'ii1 1 Uw utili tie:·:
,·uHJ the I'O\'Iet· Authority itrc not capi1b1r-of equity inv0.~.1·n•r:nt ·in nc:\·1
9cncr~1t:ion c.:tpucity, .lnd debt fin;lllt."in~J ·i~; tht·· mo··.L C:llllilllOll ··,tltllU· (Jr
cJpital.
HtCO~lNENOATION: The dd>t to equity T'tltin fm· pm•!l!l'" !·l·(ljt.·t:l: rin;li;Cill~}
$11 ,111 u e u :; s wut~ <i t o b (~ 1 : 0 .
COST t!F OEgi
Oue to the num~ l't.HiS !', Olll'CCS ilnd eli VC' t'!~ i l.y f:i iII t(! !'(~!. t l'ill.r~!. rol'
debt finnncing of pO\·H~l"" projects, 0111' int(~l"r:~il. J,ilt~ ~.huuld lit: o~clClplcd
for.con~istentency in ~n~l1ysis of t.:O~L~; or pOHt~l· lrolll illl.el·niltivc: PO\·Il:r
pr·ojects, und to set~vc as the busis fcH-clL•t:c!t·ndnin~J tht! ,,~vc·l t'r S.tttle
Ol" federal il5SiStanct~ \•lh;ch muy he 1\l!Ct:!.!;\II'.Y lc1 !'·ii\CIIIC:e tl pn•:H:r pi'Ojt:Ct.
The i ntet·cs t ru tc i dc-~nt i fi cd by s ti1 tutc I or· llh\n~; fn:ru l:h.-· pm·u·t· projc!rl
f~mcf iS \1 l"utL! equal tO the pl~l·ccntCl9C of tile il\'t~rit~Jf' \·H:t:l-:ly yit!id of
Ulunicipul bonds for il 1~ lllOilth pcrio<l prccc:dill~) lhc ditto of ~,\ lo;111 \·tttich
i~ dctct·mined from llllmicipCll bond yield nlLC!~ I'PJIOr1c·d in UH: :H) yc~l!r
t·cvenue index of the Hcc!k)y 13onc.l13uycJ·. Thi~~ intr.:n:~t ratt: wa~; approx-
imat.:ly S.q% fat· FY80 t1nd is ilppro:dmrttt.!ly P..G~~ 1or tht.: 12 month'~ p~·ect:d·it,g
this meeting.
Rf.COi·U·H~NOAT!ON: The <.:O~L of ctr.:bt for co~~L of p(l\·tt!t" an;1ly~~i·; ·.h;Jli br:
t\SS\!illed t.o be 61~X.;y~~ll·. ·"··c··":"":ti~~:.~,.~,Z'I"''":ZII:_•:-A'l·d···~·"'··*"~··.o:.•·:·"'""" .. "'-::··~~."':·· .;; ':''"..*,~1
II I 'Ftiiiii:i fthl:; Eiililih G®iiii iifiJir.l"'""'~idiiiilil!'·.o·· ::'t"''*·-'"::--~·ii ~-··. -···
:I
ll
-~--1
11
ll
' .~ ....... ·'· • • • ,, ... t • • .. • • ··-·-... ····· ......... ,. .. -''-" ·---'"_. -.,.p·····~
-··113 . -· -o ••• II-..
I .
Th!! l:Cl'IH of dd'f. i ltlilllfins; .~·.~:(h'ldft·d \•!i :I. !•CI\•/t•l l'l'(•!r:l t· I', rh·
{H:ndent upun the ~.nurc·c· t"d. fi11&:n.: inq. U11• I Y!•·· ,;( pt·P.ir·c I. ,~:p! u:.ad·.l'l.
t:lm<.iitions. Long t.c:rn: IUJ\ ,1ml FI'C t ina~nt:i11q .1·. ~l''''"'·.tlly i1·1· c1 "J~j yr·iJr
tL:rm. The r~venlH! lhliHimarkel ha~: bt't'ri priu· · ..• ·ll'.it.iv'· lo l';"'l Lr~t·m,}() ..
ye\\r iSSlll!S. and ~n-~~; ye\Ir Lr·nn:~ .tPI't"·ilr mt··.l !•rt:! •• i!."IP f(n· ti'Vt·qru~ !Jond
financing in the JH~:\L )'l~i\1'. Tlu' U:t·n: or f·il!rll!t.ill~l ~,,!ldCJ!!i I ··rr·r·d~; l.l:t·
\initicipJt~d u~icful lit'(' of .1 proj(~CI:, \·!hi1h i~: '1~)-('0 .'lt:·il''; to1· t!ic:~;·r·l
and g.1s turbine 9en.~rJI:ion, ?!i-30 .i'Cill'!· lot· •c·.~l ~lr'fil·r.d.i:a; ,,,pil<:ity,
~1nd SO years fol· hydrot'1eclric: pr·oject~;.
RECO~!HENOTiON: nl(l Lt.!I'IU for dr:bt f·ir!i!liC:in<i ·.belli IH: it:~~.IH:a:d ln bt.: ?0
j·Cut•$ fot• diesel ~·HaG 9i'\!i tut·bint: ~:l~llrt-atiOII, :~C .YP•H'!, ICJI' U:r:l c:t:ll!hl!'~l:ic.,n
st~am gen~n1tion c\~p;H:iLY: ttntJ 35 yci'u·:, i"cH· hvtil·nc·c1Pcll·.ic f;:r:ilitht5. ·