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ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
REVISED DR~FT -PLAN OF STUDY
JANUARY 1930
Acres American Incorporated
Suite 329 ·
The Clark Building
Columbia, Maryland 21 044
Telephone (301) · 992-u300
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February 4, 1980
AN OPEN LETTER TO THE PUBLIC AT LARGE /'NO TO ALL INTERESTED AGENCIES AND
ORGANIZATIONS
I am particularly pleased to provide for your review and comment the detailed
Plan of Study for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project. The document itself is
both comprehensive and complex, since it d~als with a program which, if
completed, will have far-reaching irnplic~tions for the State of Alaska as well
as for the Nation as a whole.
A series of steps has been taken during the past year _to identify all and select
one of those public agencies and private consulting fi nns with experience in the
deve-lopment of major hydroelectric projects. Your assistance, particularly in
the selection process, has been invaluable; and I extend to you the sincere
appreciation of the Board of Directors of the Alaska Power Authority and my O\'m
personal gratitude.
Governor Jay Hammond approved the recommendations of the Board of Directors .and
an agreement was signed witll Acres American Incorporated on Decembe@979.
to undertake a major feasibility study leading to the preparation of a license
application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Acres has had
extensive ex~-· ience in successful hydroelectric developments in-northern
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regions and has assembled a team which draws heavily upon the contributions of
Alaskan firms and which includes strong representation by Alaskan Natives whose
selected lands lie within the propo~edproject area.
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As you review the attached p 1 an, 1 hope you will keep in mind two important
thoughts:
1. Th~ fact that a feasibility study is to be undertaken does not necessarily
mean that a hydroelectric project of a~y kind vlill ever be constructed on
the Susitna River. It will provide the basis, however, upon which an
informed decision can be made as to v1hether the State could or should
proceed in the matter •.
2. The ·publication of this plan does not permanently fix the manner in which
the proposed work is to be accomp.l i shed.. On the contrary, I regard it as a
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dynamic document which will, I hope, be steadily improved with your
assistance. It has already undergone an important metamorphosis as a result
of testimony and corresponde.nce received durh~'J the past four months, and I
have no doubt that further editions will be responsive to your suggestions
and co1111lents.
I have scheduled public meetings on March 4, 5 1 and 6, 1980, in Anchorage,
Fairbanks, and Talkeetna respectively. I hope you will plan to attend one of .
those sessions because I believe you will find it informative. More important~ ..
though, it wi 11 offer a real opportunity to influence the course of the work
early in its conduct. If you are unab 1 e to attend; your ideas are sti 11 needed;
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I hope you will address them to Nancy Blunck; Public Participation Officer for
the Alaska Power Authority, as soon as possibler I have set no deadline for
conments, s i nee the State wi 11 benefit much fr001 a continuing interactive
process.
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As you will note in reviewing the plan~ additional public meetings and workshops
are scheduled. I will keep you informed as to dates and times; and I vti11 also
make it a point to provide you with progress reports and descriptions of various
\'lark elements from time to time.
In short, I am enthusiastic about having embarked on this important venture; and
I am especially proud to note that the State of Alaska has dared to take the
lead. If we are going to be successful, though, we need your help. May I count
on you to become involved?
Sincerely,
Eric Yould
Executive Director
Alaska Power Authority
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ACKNO~~L EDGE t~ENT
This ?1 an of Study could not have been produced vlithout major contributions
from e~ch corporate member of the Acres team. Frequent cross country
journeys, long hours devoted to preparation of inputs, and an unusual
degree of effort from various administrative support staffs have together
been instrumental in completing the assigned task--and much of the work has
been an out-of..;.pocket expense for each corporate member.. In addition to
this enthusiastic support, however, a number of other individuals and
organizations have coopt-rated fully and advised sagely •
The Alaska District, U.S. Anny Corps of Engineers, has made available for
our perusal all of the materials \vhich have been collected to date in
support of their own feasibility study and subsequent field exploration
program. The genuine interest displayed by the District in providing this
infonnation and in offering many hours of explanation fran already busy
staff members is deeply appreciated.
A group of concerned citizens and representatives of environmentaJ groups
\'las kind enough to offer their time to express issues v1hich they regard as
important. The session spent with them was most helpful as we prepared
plans for environmental studies in particular and for other tasks in
general.
The Alaska Department· of Fish and Game has met with us on a number of
occasions. The thoughtful efforts of that organization in developing a
program necessary to achieve project objectives and in discussing ways and
means to achieve it without compromising ADF&G's own requirement for
maintaining objectivity have been necessary and important.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Conmission has been kind enough to provide us
with advance information regarding possible regulatory changes soon to be
promulgated$
Individual consultants who would serve as principal investigators for
environmental studies and others who have agreed to become candidates for
external review bo.ards have been extremely helpful in 1 aying out this
plan.
The University of Maska, through its various institutes and individual
f:acU'fty members, has made its extensive capabilities known to us and has
offered advice and assistance ir planning for their use.
The Alaska Department of Natural .Resources has provided a program to us for
the conduct of certain in .... stream studies for our consideration.
· Discussions \'lith various" utilities during prior vi sits in November 197R,.
and subsequently have been helpful to our understanding of the power
market.
The Alaska Power Admtlistration has p~ovided valuable information about
power surveys!J transmission line pl ann; ng, and unique operational
experiences at existing hydroelectric pr~ojects under their control in
Alaska.
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The Bureau of Land Management has offered coordination and explanations
which will be useful in satisfying certain important permit requirements • . ..
Staff members of othar Alaska agencies such as the Department of Econom;ic
Development_, Department of Commerce, and the Department of Environmenta~
Conservation have kindly furnished us with statistical data and with vital
infonnation regarding plans for the future in Alaska.
The Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service
have offered advice to our envircnmenta1 planner's-~as the basis for
understanding their roles in our satisfaction of FERC regulations.
We have been impressed with the professionalism displayed by the Alaska
PO\'Ier Authority in devising the program for possible selection of a private
engineering firm and especially in their impartiality as they scrupulously
provided assistance and advice to the various competitors in this exciting
endeavor.
Once the original version of this Plan of Study had been submitted to· the
A 1 ask a Po\-ter Authority, it was reviewed with care by organizations and
individuals noted above and by numerous others. Many individuals took the
time. to testify to the Board of the Power Authority, and offers of
asistance have come from most of them. This revised version of the Plan
includes a new Section A4 \'lhich describes the manner in which such inputs
have been handled to date. \~e gratefully acknowledge the help so
generously given by all those mentioned in Section A4.
Other individuals and groups too numerous to mention have contributed as
well. To all who have supported the Acres effort, sincere appreciation is
extended. We are delighted to know that such a high degree of cooperation
exists throughout the State of Alaska and within the organizations of
.others having interests there. Our confidence in our ability to
successfully implement this POS has been enhanced immeasurably as a
result.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART A: PLAN OF STUDY
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF PLATES
~ Al -PROGRAM OBJECTIVEs--:. ... ________________ .., _____ ,_ __________________ _
A2 -STUDY APPROACH -----~------------------------------------------...
A3 -BUDGET SUMMARY --------------------------------------------_:-~--
A4 -RESPONSE TO PUBLIC COMMENT -------------------------------------
A5 -DETAILED ACTIVITY DESCRIPTIONS ---------------------------------
A5.1 -Introduction -------------------------------------------
A5.2 -Task 1: Power Studies ---------------------------------
A5.3 -Task 2: Surveys & Site Facilities ---------------------
A5.4 -Task 3: Hydrology -------------------------------------·As.s -Task 4: Seismic Studies -------------------------------
A5.6 -Task 5: Geotechnical Exploration ---------------------~
A5 .. 7 -Task 6: Design Development ----------------------------
A5.8 -Task 7: Environmental Studies -------------------------
A5. 9 ... Task 8: Transmi ss·i on --------------------------------o...-
A5.10 -Task 9: Construction Cost Estimates and Schedules -----
A5.11 -Task 10: Licensing -----------------------M-------------
A5.12 -Task 11: Mar·keti ng and Financing -----------------------
A5.13 -Task 12: Public Participation Program------------------
A5.14 -Task 13: Administration ------------------------------==
A6 -POST LICENSE APPLICATION SUBMISSION ACTIVITIES -----------------
A7 -PROJECT SCHEDULES ----------------------------------------------
AS -LOGISTICAL PLAN ------------------------------------------------
f. age
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· SECTION Al ~ PROGRAM OBJECTIVES
A.l .. l -Introduction
This Plan of Study was originally prepared by Acres American Incorporated on
September 11, 1979 in response to the Request for Proposal issued on
June 25, 1979, by Mr. Eric Yould, Executive Director of the Alaska Power·
Authority. A series of presentations by competing consulting engineering
firms on September 27, 1979, and public testimony accepted by the Board of
Directors of the Alaska Power Authority (APA) on September 28, 1979;
preceded the selection of Acres American Incorporated as the recommended
Consultant to the State of Alaska in the event the State should later choose
to proceed on the Susitna Hydroelectric Project without federal involvement .. ·
By unanimous resolution on November 2, 1979, the Board recommended to
Governor Jay Hamnond that the State enter into a contract with Acres
American Incorporated to conduct a feasibility study and prepare a license
application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC}.
In response to suggestions from interested citizens as well as public and
private organizations and agencies~ a number of revisions have been !Tlade to
the original Plan of Study {POS). This version has been prepared for the
purpose of providing an opportunity for further public review and comment
prior to proceeding with major portions of the work. Subject to the
approval of APA, further revisions will be made subsequent to public
meetings to be conducted in February 1980 and from time to time thereafter
in response to the legitimate concerns of interested individuals and
organizations. Certain major changes from the original POS are detailed in
subsequent sections. Briefly stated, these include:
(i) The preparation of demand forecasts is a sensitive and crucial task ..
Issues such as when--or even if--a Susitna Project is needed cannot
be resolved without such efforts. To ensure total objectivity in
forecasting and to avoid any question of conflict of interest, the!'
State of Alaska has entered into a separate contract \'lith the
Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to develop
independent forecasts.
(ii) Significant increases in the amount of effort devoted to
environmental matters and particularly to fishery studies have been
introduced in response to comments· from the Alaska Department of Fish
and Game and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service~
(iii) To ensure objectivity in the conduct of the public participation
programs the public information officer and his Oi' her assistants
wi 11 be emp 1oyees of the Alaska Power Authority rather than of Acres
American Incorporated.
(iv) The level of effort associated with marketing and finance has been
reduced in the first phase of the study, thereby deferring certain
·financing subtasks until initial qu.estions as to project viability
and concept have been more thoroughly addressed.
(v) Some changes have been made in logistical and administrative support
effort(s both to accommodate the increased 1 evel of en vi ronmenta 1
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activity and to ensurce efficiency and responsiveness as the study
progresses.
(vi) Tabulations have been added for the purpose of providing more
explicit details regarding ma11-hours and expenses to be associated
with each subtask.
{vii) Additional effort has been prescribed for in-stream flow studies
downstream of Talkeetna in response to concerns expressed by the
Alaska Department of Natural Resources.
Because of the magnitude of the proposed effort and the diversity of ski11 s
required to accomplish it!:-Acres American Incorporated has assembled a group
of subcontractors who will contribute to satisfaction of the overall program
objectives. Major participants in the Acres team include R&M Consultantss
Inc .. ; Woodward Clyde Consultants; Terrestrial Environmental Specia·rists,
InGorporated; Cook Inlet Region Incorporated/ Holmes and Narver,
Im!orporated; Salomon Brothers; and Frank Moolin Associatese
The gestation period for giant projects tends to be long.. Wild bursts of
enthusiastic effort followed by periods of genuine apathy {or total despair,
depending upon whose vantage point is selected) are cort1Tlon. Development of
the Susitna River has so far followed that classic pattern.
As early as 1952, the Bureau of Reclamation published a report identifying a
large number of potential hydroelectric power sites in Alaska, noting
pointedly the strategic advantages enjoyed by the: Susi tna River because of
its proximity to Anchorage a.nd Fairbanks. Even then, Devil Canyon was
perceived as the place to iri'sta ll a 1 arge dam. It was--and is--a steep,
narrow rock walled canyon through which silt laden grayish waters swirl and
churn and turn to white froth as they rush for the sea. Updates.by the
Bureau 1 ed to proposed authorization in 1961 of De vi 1 Canyon and Denali --a
site far up-river of Devil Canyon, astride extensive wet lands and marshy
areas~ where the Susitna dra\"'S strength from relative placidity before it
attempts the inevitable plunge through miles and miles of canyons.
Another giant project was under active contemplation in the early sixties
and its mind boggling'size, together with the engineering challenges it
offered, were especially exciting in a brand new state and during the space
technology wars then being -waged. The Rampart hydro project would have
created a poo 1 1 arger than the State of Connecticut if it had ever been
built. ·
While the Rampart studies put the Susitna project in limbo for a while, a
number of long time Alaskans worried about the risks of such a venture.. As
fate and thoughtful argument would have it, Rampart is unlikely to be built
at any time in this centurye
Susitna \'las delayed long enough~ though, to allo\'t for discovery and
development of then economical natural gas production. By the time the
warnings of energy doomsayers were beginning to be heard and felt in 1973,
the Susitna project once again began to appear attractive. The Bureau of
Reclamation updated its earlier studies in 1974,. recommending a four dam
system, and the U •. s. Army Corps of Engineers 1 aunched a major
pre-feasibility study which led to a recomnendatton in 1976 by the Chief of
Engineers that the Susitna Project be authorized. The Corps plan~
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recommended two high dams, the first of 'lthi ch waul d be bui 1 t as ·a massive
earthfill gravity structure 810 feet in height at the Watana -site more than ·-
30 miles upstream of Devil Canyon. The ~~cond Corps dam was to be a 635-
foot-high thin arch concrete structure which wouid sweep across the canyon
from rock abutment to rock abutment--essentially the same as the Bureau • s
Devil Canyon proposal.
By June 1978, the Corps of Engineers had prepared a plan of study requiring
24 million dollars and offering a program leading to completion of a
detailed feasibility study.. Further investigations by the Corps confirmed
the adequacy of the Watana site, though they did reveal that some changes
were requir-ed in particular for the spillway arrangement.
Data, antJlyses and reports collected. and prepared by the Corps of Engineers
will be Ul)ed throughout the course of the work to be undertaken by Acres
JlJnerican Incorporated$ Even so~ it is likely that new load forecasts \t~ill
-differ from those eat'l ier offered by the Corps of Engineers. In addition,
expanded alternatives studies, conti nui r.g geotechnical and seismic ·
investigations, vigorous public involvement2 and thorough environmental
inventories and assessments can significantly affect the range of
conclusions which might be derived from the \'IOrk.. It follows that the
earlier development plan may not necessarily prove to be the. optimum. This
Plan of Study describes a series of tasks and subtasks, along with reasons
for these, and provides information regarding organizational matters and
team qualifications. A ne\'1 concept for development~ if development is found
appropriate, will begin to emerge by the end of the first year of study.
A.1.2 !. Primary Objectives of Study
(i) Establish technical, economic and financial feasibility of the
Susitna Project to meet future power needs of the Ra i 1 be 1 t Region of
the St.ate of Alaska.
(ii_) Evaluate the environmental consequences of designing and constructing
the Susitna Project.
(iii) File a completed license application with the Federa1 Energy
Regulatory Commission.
A.1.3 -Specific Objectives of the Study
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To meet the primary objectives of the study, the folloNing specific
objectives are proposed:
( i)
( i i )
(iii)
Determine the future electric power and energy needs of the
Southcentral Rail'belt Area, based upon independent analysis by ISER.
Assess alternative means of meeting the load requirements of the
Rai 1 belt Area.
Pre.pare an optimal development plan for the Susitna Project v1herein
power costs· and probable impacts are m·inimized, safety is enhanced,
and financing is achievable.
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{iv) Establish a definitive estimate of the total cost of bringing power
on 1 i ne~ together v1ith a statemeJ?t of cash fl O\'f requirements.
(v) Evalute the physical, economic; and financial risks of the Susitna
Project and determinte ways and means to avoid or minimize their
consequences. ·
(vi) Evaluate existing environmental and social factors as they now exist
in the proposed project area, assess the impacts of the proposed
project, enhance environmental values to the extent possible, and
recommend mitigating measures.
(vii) Estimate the annual system pO\'Ier costs in the Southcentral Railbelt
with and without the project, stuqy the integration of Susitna power
into the Railbelt utility systems, and assess pov1er marketability.
(viii) Prepare a complete license application and file this with the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission.
(ix) Ensure that the needs and desires of the public are knovm, keep
interested parties and the public informed, and afford an opportunity
for public participation in the study process.
(x) Determine an optimal program for achieving financing, including
resolution of issues regarding tax-exempt status of bonds which may
later be offered.
(xi) Minimize the costs incurred by the State of Alaska in successfully
achieving the above objectives or alternatives in reaching the
earliest practicable conclusion that development of the Susitna
Project is or is not in the best interests of the State.
(xii) Maximize opportunities for equal employment opportunities for
Alaskans and for involving in the work members of those Native
Corporations in the region.
A.1.4 -Primary Aspects for Susitna Pr·oject Reguiri ng Study
(i) Introduction
As with any major hyaroe1ectric project, the number of investigations
and substudies required to achieve the primary objectives noted in
paragraph A.l.2 above is significanto Each of these requirements is
described in terms of precise tasks and subtasks in Section AS. Even
so, a number of primary aspects, particularly insofar as they address
major concerns, deserve to be highlighted.
{ii) Power Studies
\1hi 1 e this Plan of Study had necessarily to be written on the
assumption that project feasibility will in fact be demonstrated, we:
are well awar·e of the importance of demonstrating that a need for
significant increases in power generating capacity does truly exist
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in the Rai1be1t Area and that this need can best be satisfied by the
Susitna Project. Indeed, it is clear that the absence of need o-r the
discovery of a better means .o.f satisfying it if it e:<is-ts will
represe.nt prima facie evidence that development of the project is not
in the best inte~ests of the State. ?ower studies \IIi 11 be undertaken
to examine and define a range of load forecasts and to assess
possible alternatives or groups of altetnatives which together could
· satisfy the projected demand.
We will avail ourselves of intimate knowledge of Alaska in general
and the Railbelt in particular through employment of the Alaskan
office· of Woodward Clyde Consultants {WCC) to assist in conducting
power studies. Load forecasts wi 11 be d~vel oped independently by
ISER and wfll form the basis upon which demand curves and load
duration curves are prepared. The study of non-hydro alternatives by
WCC (reviewed by Acres Thermal Power Division) and of hydro alterna-
tives by Acres will be enhanced through use of the ·General Electric
Optimum Generation Program Series (sophisticated computer models
designed to pennit multiyear analysis of generation system mixes)
which we have successfully used in the past for a comprehensive study
of alternatives to the Dickey Lincoln School Lake.s Project in New
England.
{iii) Financing Plan
Successful financing of giant projects is inevitably a complex and
time-consuming task. Our own expertise in this area, as evidenced by
participation in the successful financing of the Churchill Falls
Project where Mr. J. G. Warnock managed the team responsible for
bond support documents, \'/ill be available to the financial consul-
tants of the Salomon Brothers. This we11 known investment banking
firm has managed or co-managed 655 issues of tax-exempt bonds in the ·~
total amount of $48.3 billion since January 1, 1974. Dr. c. P.
Chapman will manage risk analysis studies. His unique capabilities
in that area have been demonstrated time and again for 1 arge projects
including sam~ in sub-arctic environments.
(iv) Ice Engineering
The study of ice. engineering has necessarily been an important part
of Acres • efforts for past projects in recent years. Our successful
i nvo 1 vement in hydroe 1 ectri c projects throughout North America, with
a total installed capacity of over 14,000,000 kW, is a matter of
record. Assistance in ice engineering studies will be provided as
well by R&M whose hydrologic investigations of rivers and streams
throughout Alaska has been significant. Our conceptual designs for
minimizing the problems associated with frazil ice, ice jams, ice
shelving and the like will be subjected to exhaustive modeling after
license application has been made and during the preparation of
detailed designs. Problems associated with permafrost are also
familiar to the Acres organization; our staff has extensive
experience in developing unique and effective methods of dealing with
such problems in connection with large power projects in subarctic
regions.
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{v) ,Earthquake Engineering .
Of the many potential risks associated with the Susitna Project,
those associated with seismic problems are probably the most signifi-
canto Certainly~ no single area. of concern is likely to have more
irrmediate catastrophic consequences if the engineering work has not
been done thoroughly and well. Not only is it important to design
all structures to survive ·unscatheq in the event of an earthquake,
·but it is also essential to determine the extent to which creation of
reservoirs on the Susitna River will itself induce earthouakes. . .
Our .approach to this problem is twofold: first, we have engaged the
California office of Wee to undertake extensive seismic studies.. WCC
has operated in Alaska for over ten years and has amassed a consi-
derable data base on geological and geotechnical conditions,
faulting~ and seismicity of the Anchorage and Rai1belt Areas. wee
have also had -extensive seismic experience with major dam and power
projects elsewhere. Secondly, we have recommended a list of eminent
professional engineers whose accomplishments are recognized worldwide
as the basis for se 1 ect ion by the Pm'ler Authority of one or more
external review boards. The engineering board would be provided
funds on the order of $1 million with which to undertake confirmatory
or additional studies. Acres v1ould offer coordination services and
administrative support, where appropriate, to the board(s), but·
authority to select, remunerate, terminate and to direct their
activities would remain With the Power Authority ..
< (vi) Project Management/Construction Management
In order to provide Alaskan-experienced project and construction
management capability in the POS team, Acres will combine with its
in-house resources the additional resources of the Frank Moolin and
Associates, Inc. organization. This company presently operates out
of Fair'banks, Alaska and provides executive. project and construction
management experience to the energy industry. The Moolin team
provides many years of "hands-on 11 experience on varying sizes and
types of projects, including recent responsibility for construction
of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, a $4.2 billion effort. Members of the
organization provide an unusual, multi-disciplined~ combination of
energy, industry and heavy construction experience. In addition,
conditions unique to planning, managing and constr·ucting projects on
the Alaskan scene are familiar to all of these individuals.
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SECTIONA2-STUDY APPROACH
A.2"1 -Discussion of Problems to be Resolved
(i) Introduction
ln formulating a logical approach to study of a· major hydroelectric
development in a relatively hostile climate and environmentally
sensitive region~ it is necessary to identify the particular problems
which must be addressed and to place these in proper perspective with
the more routine elements of technical and economic feasibility
assessment. The objective is to arrive at an optimal development
which recognizes and allows for all constraints imposed, and
addresses such vital issues as environmental acceptability at the
proper stage to allow it be considered adequately through public
participation and other processes to satisfy licensing procedures ..
The financial viability of the project is, of course, also a vitally
important consideration which lies beyond the strict technical and
economic parameters of the proposed development. The approach taken
in the overall studies must 1 ead to a confident determination of the
fi nanciabi l ity (or otherwise) of the project. -
We have identified a number of potential problem areas early in our
planning efforts as the basis for ensuring that the fina1 Plan of
Study will pr~·iid~ adequate measures for dealing with them.
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{ii) Optimal Development
Millions of dollars have been spent to date in an effort to determine
just which of many concepts will lead to optimal development.
Optimization~ 1 ike beauty, though, is in the eyes of the beholder ..
The Bureau of Reclamation selected a four-dam system to be estaJ>--..
lished on the Susitna River.. The Corps of Engineers has succeeded in
obtaining authorization to conduct detailed feasibility studies for a
two-dam system which would· provide essentially the same amount of
power as that for four dams of lesser height. The Corps approach
benefitted from the Bureau of Reclamation's work and built upon it.
The Acres approach wi 11 continue that refinement process. In so
doing, though~ it must account for certain potential problems:
(a) Load Forecgst Accuracy
There has been a nationwide slackening of historically high
load-growth rates for electric utility systems since the energy
crisis of 1973. It can no more be assumed that this trend.will
continue throughout the next decade or two than it can be
assumed that longer. term historical patterns will once again
assert themselves. The State must, nonetheless, develop load
forecasts in whose accuracy a high 1 eve 1 of confide nee can be
placed. ·
{b) Alternatives to Susitna Development
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Implicit irt the search for optimal development is the identifi-
cation of all reasonable alternatives. We must acquire strong
and reasonably definitive knowledge of alternatives to the
Susitna Project for satisfying projected load forecasts.
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(c) Alternatives for Development of the Susitna River
In the event that t~o alternative to Susitna Development i-s -f~..tnd
to be superj~r· in terms of technical; economict and environ-
mental considerations, we will need to assure the Power
Authority that the Corps of Engineers concept or some oth~r is
the most appropfc"iat-e. The -days when a simple economic test led
to plan selection have long since passed.
(iii) Data Acquisition
Significant portions of the total cost of the Plan of Study are
devoted to the acquisition of additional data. Field studies in the
areas of survey, geotech.nical, hydrology:,-environmental, seismicity,
and transmission will demand a base of support and proper means of
site access and egress in addition to time and equipment for the
purpose. Certain important problem areas include:
(a) Seasonal and Weather Constraints
$
Most data collection wi11 have to be accomplished during rela-
tively short summer ?easons, resulting in high peak loads on
camp facilities (a major consideration in the Logistical Plan in
Section A8) and in particular on demands for certain equipment
(including drilling, special survey, gaging, seismic
instruments) not necessarily in great abundance in Alaska--at
·the very time that other projects in the State simultaneously
require like items.
(t) Study Period
The relative brevity of the proposed 30 month study period does
not allow for training personnel to operate in a relatively
harsh sub-arctic environment.
(c) Coordination of the Program
The variety of investigations conducted at the same time "in the
same· general area and subject to severe, albeit important, land
use restrictions demands an unusual degree of coordination and
management of the data acquisition effort (see also (ix) below).
(iv) Financial Risk
It must be recognized at the outset that several aspects of the
Susitna Hydroelectric Project will inevitably imply substantial risk
to potential investors. It will be necessary, therefore, to address
all real and perceived risks \'lith a high degree of intensity,
limiting or disposing of as much of the exposure as possible to build
a realistic 1evel of confidence in the project. There will, no
doubt, be residual risks for thepotential investor to consider but
attitudes to these will be significantly affected by the way in \~thich
the Alaska Power Authority can demonstrate that all potential
problems have been diligently examined and fully addressed.
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(a) Superposition of a large Project on a Small System
. In the case of Susitna, a very major, capital-intensive project
undertaking is being considered for addition to an existing
utility base of relatively limited facilities and fixed assets.
The financial approach must therefore be on the basis of Project
Financing where funding is raised on the assured revenue ·and
cash flow generated, usually, from a long term sales contract,
in this case for purchase of power and energy.
{b) Risk of Meeting Anticipated Power Output
The nature of the financing approach has a bearing on many
aspects of the overa 11 study plan for Sus itna. It requires~ fer
instance, that hydrological and energy assessments are made with ·
a particularly high level of confidence and that risks of short-fall are carefully examined.
(c) . Design Risks ·
A high level of·confidence must be achieved in the adequacy of
engineering design and in the construction costs involved in
meeting the requL~ements imposed. The estimates sJw-uid be at a
level allowing for a relatively high likelihood of an 11
Under-runn on total costs including contingency provisions.
The most careful judgment must be applied to assessing likely
increases in material, labor and equipment costs to allow for
confident definition of a provision for escalation.
Construction and contracting practice must be developed wh'ich
avoids or even eliminates over-run exposure. These and many
other aspects of the plan for development must be all the more
intently addressed to meet the need of a project of the extent of Susitna.
(v) Design Problems
Our own experience in planning, design, and construction management
of large engineering projects in North America and particularly in
sub-arctic env1ronments has made us acutely aware of certain design
problems which must be addressed early in the process of total
project development. These include:
{a) Sei smicit.r_
. The Susitna River flows in a region of known high seismic
activity. Acquiring knowledge of the precise nature and extent
of this activity must necessarily be a prelude to designing ~arthquake resistant project features. In addition, the
question of the effect of large reservoirs on the Susitna River
"in stimulating earthquakes must be studied in some detail.
, Because of the potential for catastrophe, careful and thoughtful
evaluations of seismic efforts by others appears to be necessary.
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(b) . Ice
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It will be necessary to· ensure that icing problems do not inter-
fere w'ith operation of the completed hydroelectric project as
well as to determine how downstream ice conditions with the pro-
ject will differ from those without. The effect of ice shelving
in the reservoirs or ice jamming must a 1 so be addressed.
(c) Slope Stabilitl
The nature of the project area is such that proposed reservoirs
tend to be long and narrow. Landslides, avalanches, and side
slope failures are especially to be guarded against.
{d) Siltation
It will be nece~sary to consider the rate at ~1hich sediment load
fills dead storage space in the upper reservoir of the system,
since the risk of losing energy production due to losses in
active reservoir storage must be eliminated. Downstream of any
dams, the effect of changes in sediment content will requir~
evaluation as well. In the latter evaluation, it will be
important to determine the extent to which r~latively clearer
sediment starved summer flows will pick up additional load from
the river bed downstream.
{vi) Environmental Impact ()
There is no doubt that the level of effort to be applied to environ-
mental studies is necessarily significant, because little is knO\'In
of the total environmental resources in the project area and the
superposition of a giant project on the Railbelt will have social
consequences which must be determined. Certain prcblem areas of
note include: ·
{a) Complete Cycle Studies.
Definitive evaluations in the environmental area frequently
require successive multi-season data acquisition efforts.. In
the case of the fishery resource, for example, a five year
program is indicated.. Yet, license app 1 i cat·i on is schedu 1 ed
less than three years hence~
(b) Getting up to Speed
The unique nature. of the environment in the project area is
best studied by those who have earlier gained familiarity with
sub-arctic regions in general and Alaska in particular; The
proper individuals must be identified lest lengthy training
periods consume valuable study time.
(c) Relationships with ADF&G
We recognize the great expertise of ADF&G in certain areas and
we believe certain environmental studies can best be
accomplished if undertaken directly by ADF&G. Even so, it is
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(d)
(e)
(f)
imperative that the necessary r~vlew~ evaluation and approval
function which ADF&G must also-perform be objective. Procedures
must be worked out to preserVe this objectivity.
Information Exchange teV -
As environmental data /collected and impacts are assessed, it
will be necessary to ensure that pt-ovisions are made for infor-
mation exchange and for contributions from the many interested
individuals and groups whose particular focus will be on
environmental issues.
Interpretations of NEPA
A major battleground in the recent past bet\'teen project pro-
ponents and opponents has been the National Environmental Policy
Act. Major. projects in the past would almost certainly travel a.
route of court litigation to determine compliance with the Act.
The litigation has centered upon the Environmental Impact_--_,..,~~~
Statement, FERC application Exhibit w. The recent counc1'1 on
Envir·onmental Quality's Requirements for Environmental Impact
Statements should clarify the review process at the Federal
level; however, problems still exist in agency interpretation
and between the state and federal governments ..
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Mitigation
The Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act requires that an appli-
cant coordinate with Federal and State fish and game agencie~ to -
ref~~-a fi ~h .. and wil dl ffe 1 an. . . e f>Ta~n"~1s"~_~Jnc1uaea ·1n~. t• h .. -e-:··;i • ·~t-.
1 ~ ~ cense ~ p 1 i c'a'fi~n-_" 'a. . i 1.·t . . .. . §f)fti b ~8~~W) ... :~~ ~~~~ -~~" .' '"'. .
1 esse ly . 4~-t1ga -·. n lan fJl~~~av~rs~1~~·t;t.S .~·· J t:_~t,.,"'
· pr_ ec d . qpm ~1ll' ~~.¥2'11pon ·~t~e --~~11~Jil.~1J.L~; \\~~:~t
·sou ,. ... -~'l.., ... ,--=-'l!:_t?J~cb.~~'"'et>ltncrerl ~g the pr1st1 ne sett 1 ng \
o · proJect area and m1gratory and hab1tat patterns of such
V"esources as caribou herds and moose, preparation of and agree-
ment on.the mitigation plan \Jtill be a major effort in project
development. The FERC must resolve disagreements on the
adequacy of the mitigation plan prior to issuing a license. A
great deal of time can be involved in the· series of correspon-
dence, meetings or formal hearings if needed to resolve the
conflict.
(g) Conflicting or Overlapping Authorities
Along these same lines are compliances with the Anadromous Fish
Act and the Endangered Spec:ies Act~ As these acts are
administered by different agencies (Fish and Wildlife Service
and National Marine Fisheries Service, respectively), approval
by one does not necessarily ensure approva 1 by the other. For example,~ethod OfO>tish transportation (if required) around
t,he dam may not be a~ceptab 1 e to both agencies. Proposed
operation of the reservoirs may also fall into conflict over
maintenance of minimum downstream release and fluctuating
release volumes.
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(h) Historic Preservation Concerns
(vii) Licensing
Prior to constructing the Susitna Hydropower Project, extensive
coordination and consensus agreements must take place between the
project developer and numerous Federal government agencies. Several
permitting processes will need to executed. However, the focal point
of the efforts will most probably be the preparation and action
relative to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) license
application. The license would allow the applicant to construct and
eventually operate the p_roposed facility for a period of up to 50
years. The licensing process is fairly complex as noted by the fact
that the current average major license review time is approximately
seven years from time of application to approval.
{a) Complexity of Review Process
The reason for the length of time and complexity of review lies
in the fact that the FERC and the reviewing agencies have a
number of requirements under existing statutes which must be
satisfied prior to taking· action upon an application. Addi-
tionally, the statutes~ under certain circumstances, provide
conflicting authorities between review agencies and the FERC •
(b) Intervenors
·.Compounding the review difficulty is the special status of
intervenors in the process. The FERC's authorization laws and
administrative practice give enormous powers to the project
intervenor to delay the process with a series of hearings on
legal questions pertaining to project licensing. Essentially,
the burden of proof of compljance with the listed statutes will
fall upon the d~veloper.
(c). land Rights Issues
Even at this stage of project formulati"on, several pitfalls
within the licensing process can be foreseen. Land rights·for
construction and access to the project could be. a problem~
particularly with the. complexity of the Alaska native land
rights, and use of federal lands under the Federal Land Policy
and Mana.gement Act.. At this time, the U. S. Departments of
·Interior and Agriculture are developing regulations for
administering the Act. As the regulations will be relatively
new during plannjng and.:development of the Susitna project,
administrative and legal problems associated in compliance with
the Act can be expected.
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~ (d) ·!!~ter ResoUl"Ce Development Plan
Section lO(a) of the Federal Powe~ Act requires that the project
be best adapted to a comprehensive water resource development
plan for the project area. In the case of the Susitna project,
compliance will mean that the need for the project and all
alternatives to the project h~ve been carefully studied to
determine that this development is indeed in the best interests of the public.
(e) New Regulations
We have determined that FERC will shortly issue nr.w proposed
draft regulations for licensing a major· hydroelectric project ..
It will be necessary to review new procedures and respond to
required changes while the planned study is in progress ..
(viii} Problems in Public Participation
There is a distinct difference between the concepts of public infor-
mation and public participation. The former is designed to let the
public know what is happening (sometimes, unfortunately, to let the
public know only what the planner wants it to think is happening)~
The latter not only includes public information as a subset, but also
provides a means for the public to become involved in and influence
the course of work. For an effort as large as the Susitna Hyd·ro-
electric Project and with impacts extending effectively into
perpetuity, public participation--including accurate public
information--is an imperative. The attendant problems are
significant:
(a) Conflicting Interests.
Taken alone, the.motivations and objectives of individuals and
organizations who have been involved to date on the Susitna
Project are generally sincere and relatively easily understood.
Considered collectively, however3 they represent clear con-
flicts. It follows that it will be virtually impossible to
satisfy every desire. Problems will almost certainly arise in.
determining what heirarchy of concerns is to be established.
How will federal interests in accelerated development of energy
resources be reconciled \'Jith those of citizens who would
preserve the Alaskan quality of life? Of recreational interests
in preserving a natural river with those of consumers who seek
ways and means to stabilize the cost of electric energy? The
following list of special interests is not exhaustive: ·
Utility interests, including concerns about aoility t.o meet
energy demands, prospects for recovery of capital
investments, profits for investors.
--Alaskan native groups~ particularly those which have selected
lands in the Susitna River Basin.
Fisheries industries whose concerns about impacts on future
catch, particularly of anadromous fish, have not yet been
fully addressed.
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Downstream residents concerned especially about changes the
Susitna Project will impose upon their way of life.
Consumers of electric power in the Southcentral Railbelt.
Marketers of alternative energy resources.
Conservationists who perceive the Susitna Project as likely
to spur unwanted growth.
Industrial and commercial interests who-perceive stabiliza-
tion of energy costs as important to future progress.
Workers interested in employment opportunities arising
directly or indirectly from construction of dams on the
Susitna.
Agencies charged with maintenance and preservation of Alaskan
wildlife, including in particular the Alaska Department of
Fish and Game and the Federal Fish and Wildlife Department. ·
Railbelt residents who seek assurances that a Susitna Project
will neither induce earthquakes nor fail catastrophically if
one does occur • ..
--And others.
{b) Impacts on Schedules
A proper public participation program necessarily requires that
provisions be made to permit time for review and comment at
various points as the study develops. Accommodating review time
requirements, particularly in c-ases where proceeding on a new
task depends upon a favorable decision having been made on
results of the previous task, can serve to delay scheduled
completions.
(c) Changing to Accommodate the Public Interest
True public participation requires not only that the public be
informed and that they be allowed to offer corrment, but also
that their legitimate inputs be incorporated into the work.
Thus, provisions must be made to properly address new issues as
' they arise and to take action where rlquired. It is almost
inevitable that an effective public involvement program will
require that the plan of study be dynamic. An increased risk
that costs will be incurred and scheduled completion times ~11
be extended as new courses of ~ction are pursued must be
regarded as a problem area.
(d) Communications in Alaska
The large area over which power would be distributed, relatively
undeve'l oped road nets, and remoteness of many of the areas to be
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( i x)
affected by the Susitna Project combine to create unusual
pressures on effective communications. It follows that any
proposed public_participation program must be designed to afford
reasonable involvement opportunities even for those who have no
practical means to attend meetings or make regular visits to
information centers in large metropolitan areas.
Control and Coordination
<
We have assembled a team whose individual corporate members bring
strong special skills to bear upon satisfaction of the various
project objectives. The danger associated with such an assemblage· is
that contra 1 and coordination prob 1 ems increase in comp·l exity as a
result. It becomes important then, that early steps be taken and
procedures established so that the synergism promised by putting the
team together is not 1 ost through fa i 1 ures in management. Two areas
in particular are worthy of consideration:
(a) Planning, Control and Management of the Study Itself
Provisions must be made to avoid costly redundant efforts as
well as to ensure that each and every task and action is
budgeted for and accomplished. ·
(b) Planning the Eventual Construction Program .
The matter of timely and efficient constructibi-lity of a
proposed major project can be an extremely costly problem area
if it is not attended to throughout the planning and design process ..
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A.2"'2 -Proposed Approach to Solution of Problems
{i} Introduction
(ii)
Given the size and complexity of the proposed project, it should come
as no surprise that the problem areas noted above and others as well
demand carefully developed, often innovative~ solutions. In general
we believe a certain pervasive discipline must be a part of our
approach to the project as a whole and to each of the necessary tasks
and subtasks individually.
.
Briefly stated, we recognize a series of steps as virtually
universally applicable:
~
(1)
(2)
{3)
(4)
(5)
{6)
(7}
{8}
(9}
(10)
(11}
(12)
(13)
Define the problem
Establish objectives
. Describe the work necessary for achieving the
mi niLt~tm rnc:r ••• !I' • • • ............ _" ....... ~ .
objectives at
Assign responsibility to the appropriate team or subteam
leaders
Ensure each leader has sufficient qualified persons to do the
work
Make the necessary physical resources and logistic support
available
Schedule the activities to ensure resource commitments and
overall project schedule are appropriate
Collect the necessary data
Evaluate the data
Draw cone 1 us icns
Provide expert review
Define new problems
Establish flexible procedures to permit rescheduling and new
resource commitments as necessary when new problems or scope
changes arise.
While these steps will apply in general, certain specific comnents as
regards problems identified in paragraph A.l.l above are noted in
succeeding subparagraphse ~
Optimal Development
(a) Load Forecast Accuracy
The business of predicting the future inevitably involves vary-
ing degrees of uncertainty. We plan to reduce th,;s uncert~inty
to an acceptable level through the use of proven analytical
econometric models developed in the State at the University of
Alaska precisely to support the type of predictive efforts
required. ISER will lead this work, supported by Professors T.
L. Husky and 0. s. Goldsmith. ISER will establish a range of
forecasts together with assumptions associated with their
development. This approach will, of course, allow us to test
the implications of various growth scenarios on project
viability and timing, as well as permit evaluation of reasonable
alternatives. ·
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(b) Alternatives to Susitna Dev_elopment
Definition of reasonable alternatives demands that a marriage of
appropriate technical knowledge of each alternative to intimate
knO\vledge of Alaska be accomplished. Acres has strong hydro-
electric experience as well as a large thermal power development
group. wee (Alaska) furnishes capabilities in analysis of
non-hydro alternatives as well as an Alaskan presence. Our
· intention is to study ti.e widest possible range of alternatives
and to test various combinations which might satisfJ load
forecasts. This testing process will be facilitated through the
use of sophisticated computer models which we have used in prior
alternative studies·of major hydroelectric projects ..
(c) Alternatives for Development of the Susitna River
While much time, effort and thought has gone into the earlier
Corps of Engineers studies~ we wi11 nonetheless take a fresh
look at possible alternative ways of developing the Susitna
Basin. These studies will include3 for example, consideration
of a long power tunnel extending downstream from the Watana
site. Our project team includes a number of personnel who are
skilled in the art of hydroelectric planning and we have
included a Concept Planning team v1ithin our Feasibility Studies
task force.
·,
(iii) Data Acquistion
\~e recognize the requirement for large field investigating teams.. It
follows that proper field s~pport facilities will be necessary. Our
logistics plan at Section A8 provides details in that regard. The
matter of equipment demands in Alaska is a serious one. Not only
must the proper type of drilling, measuring, instrumenting.and
sampling devices be available when and as needed, but also they must
in many cases be modified to permit use in remote sub-arctic regions.
R&M is the only organization of its kind in Alaska. R&M 1 s special
surveying and drilling equipment and extensive Alaskan experience
contributes much to our confidence in our ability to complete the
proposed work on time and on schedulE~. In addition, most other
principal investigators have had extensive experience in sub-arctic
environments and all have made preliminary arrangements for equipment
needs. Coordination will be facilitated through the establishment of
an Alaskan project office headed by a senior Acres engineer who has
himself led similar efforts in the past for major projects in
Canada.
(iv) Financial Risk
\1e have chosen the investment banking firm of Salomon Brothers \mose
strong experience in tax-exempt bonding matters vli11 be ex:tremely
important in preparation of plans for successful project financing.
Mr. J. G. Warnock • s ovm successful experience as the 1 eader of the
bond documentation team on the Churchill Falls project provides an
important strength on the Acres team. The study effort for
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financial planning will be shared equally by Salomon Brothers and
Acres. In addition, we have planned an extensive risk analysis
program for ensuring that we identify and minimize various financial
and design risks. Certain special considerations pertain:
(a) Multidiscipl inar?y ,Involvement
(b)
It wi 11 be clear that to dea 1 adequately with the matter of
financial risk it has to be considered from very many viewpoints
inevitably involving a multidisciplinary approach ..
Traditionally, engineers alone were engaged in the early
planning and consideration of hydroelectric power sites with
other interests-such as financial, insurance, labor relations,
etc. -joining in later when feasibility had all but been
established. Such a procedure was quite practicable when hydro-
electric sites clearly justified development on their own merit,
ecollomics were not in question, and environmental constraint
unheard of. NO\~adays, despite rapid escalating costs of fuel
generated power alternatives, hydroelectric power generation is
often marginal ·in power supply economics and development faces
constant uncertc!inty as to whether any installation could be
justified at all in the face of environmental constraint and
objections.
Into this aura of uncertainty major projects such as Susitna are
being launched. It is clear that only the highest standard of
management and dedication to an ultimate belief in proper
development of renewable resources will lead such a project to
implementation. Methods and approaches are, however, available
and w~ll tested which will assist the process markedly. Basic
to the successful approach is a broad interdisciplinary
involvement from the start. Engineers must be effectively
backed up by a team of financial specialists, economic analysts;
environmenta 1 i sts, insurance experts, construction managers~
labor relations specialists, etc. No longer is it practical for
a single engineering discipline to carry a project from initial
concept to commitment to construction in a program of relatively
isolated concentration on the physical aspects of the site.
We advocate, therefore, a carefully planned close involvement of
the engineering team with all the other disciplines and
specialists which, wh~n integrated to a sum of effort over the
preliminary phases of a project, can build the basic confidence
which overcomes the apparent and growing constraints.
Fundamental to the· approach we recommend, is a_close integration
of engineering, financial and insurance speciality input from
the start.
Technical/Economic Relationships to Power Contract Negotiations
Fundamental to the success of any plan to develop the Susitna
project is the focus of contract for the sale of energy and
capacity from the completed plant. In order to provide the
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(c)
adequate debt service a contractual arrangement is necessary
which calls for "take or payu obligations on the part of the
energy· purchases. This and other basic elements of the power
contract can have a profound effect on the vi abi1 ity of the
project.
It might be suggested that this is not an engineering problem
but one for the marketing/utility negotiation team alone. But
not necessarily so; it is the en~ineer who can contribute vital
knowledge to the assessment of the reliability of energy supply
over the years of the contract.. He also has to balance the
values of various capacity factors for the planned plant. He
has to assess, furthermore, the changing role that may be
attributed to the facilitation as time passes. It is necessary
~o view powet"" system planning on a "dynamic basis."
Economists play their succi net role too. Much of the forecast-
ing of likely market conditions falls to their judgment. They
have to assess likely future variations in fuel and energy
aspects of alternative generation~ Cost escalation on
construction has a heavy bearing on a hydroe!lectric project and
is amenable to careful judgment by economic specialists.
Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning
In order to protect the project capital structure, allowances
have to be made for contingencies, provisions for escalation in
costs and for a camp 1 et ion guarantee. The first two of these
items are basic elements of the capital cost budget while the
third is usually dealt with a.s a standby financing arrangement.
In arriving at prudent allowances for contingencies on very
major projects, it is becoming increasingly desirable to deter-
mine these as a result of a carefully conducted risk analysis.
Modern methods are available, which have been adequately tested
on large undertakings, to determine the likely confidence level
of estimat.es both of costs and schedule (which itself has cost
implications).
The approach planned for Susitna would employ up-to-date tech-
niques of risk.assessment and contingency.planning which on the
one hand would permit th~ reduction to a minimum of "real money ..
over-run allowances and employ to the maximum extent possible
measures to mitigate risk.
The study contributes substantially to the determination Qf the
"residual risk," which, in a project of the nature of Susitna~
remains to be covered by insurance or by a conscious acceptance
by the owner that it will be covered in some other way should
adverse circumstances prevail. The capacity of the internation-
al insurance market method to assume greater levels of insurance
has improved as the size of major projects has increased. The
type of approach recommended is intended to lead to the most
favorable pt~acticable basis for insurance provisions"
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(v) Design Problems
Special design problems demand special attention, for time and effort
devoted to their resolution prior to construction pay handsome
dividends in terms of correction costs avoided later and in terms, as
well, of securing the necessary degree of confidence on the part of
investors, environmenta 1 interests, State authorities'· and the puhl ic
in general.
(a) Seismicity
We have noted earlier the i~portance of seismicity studies and
of designing earthquake resistant structures. So important do
\-Je regard this area that we have planned for exhaustive investi-
gations supported by modern sophisticated instrumentation.
Acres has dealt with seismicity issues with great success in the
past on a number of major hydroelectric -and other power pro-
jects. wee (California) will conduct the seismicity studies for
the Susitna Project, with careful revieN provided by the Acres
team. While the wee expertise in this area is unquestionable,
we have been particularly careful to provide the means and the
resources to seek confirmation by objective experts whose duties
will be conducted quite apart from the Acres team.. In accor-
dance with APA 1 s expressed desires for a level of effort of $1
million to be applied to an external seismicity investigatio·n,
we have chosen an approach which calls upon a proposed external
board (or boards) to invest that sum in those confirmatory or
additional studies which they regard as essential to rendering
an expert op-inion on how well our O\'ln designs are responsive to
earthquake concerns.
{b) Ice
Ice studies are provided for in the study program to assess the
current icing conditions found naturally in the Susitna basin
without the project. Field investigations and surveys will also
produce vital information, including appropriate in-stream
hydrographic surveys and flood plane cross-sections downstream
of the proposed dam sites. As design concepts are evaluaterll, we
will draw upon the expertise of members of the Acres team mao
have countered operational icing problems on past projects... In
this regard, for example, our mechanical en9inee.ring staff will
pay particular attention to the possibility that frazil ice
may interfere with generation flows. A separate Ice Studies
team has also been included within our Feasibility Studies
organization. The nature and extent of the potential for "ice
jamming and ice shelving in the reservoirs vlill be detailed and
close coordination will be maintained v1ith those involved in
environmental studies to ensure that impacts of ice formations
on wildlife migration and survival are understood.
(c) Slope Stability
Field investigations by R&M will provide a source of data for
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evaluating slope stability. The extent of permafrost in the dam
and reservoir areas and the resulting potential for slope _
instability will be carefully investigated by the Project Team.
The combined expertise of R&M and Acres wi 11 ·be directed toward
·the design of countermeasures as appropriate and risk studies
will consider the consequences of unanticipated slope failures
and snow s'l ides.
(d) Siltation
Earlier Corps of Engineers studies have indicated that the
deposition of sediment in the Watana reservoir will be entirely
in the dead storage area throughout the proposed operating
period for the project. We will conduct necessary studies to
confirm those earlier findings and to better determine the
expected rate of siltation. Changes in silt load patterns
downstream of the dams will also be examined from both
environmental and water quality standpoints.
(vi) .Envi.ronmental Impact
Our overall approach to a proposed extensive environmental program
relies upon the coordination of a series of individual·studies
c.onducted by individuals whose entire professional careers have been
devoted to particular subject areas. A number of consultants,
several with considerable sub-arctic and/or Alaskan experience in
pertinent areas of study, will participate in the work. The
coordination effort will be accomplished primarily by TES whose own
staff will augment the consultants' efforts. Certain specific
matters highlighted above as problems will be resolved as follows:
· (a) Complete Cycle Studies
The~or.i.i;Je.henstv'!:!lp.rogr '1/.-co~;mtrf.-~d ~. AD~&~114~. · ·. !~~~~~-,.· '."
anjl is .{~ry: ."1· ourc.~~eva 1 ~yof p:~~ of . · · ~t--~f;~dg:ram~x~·~!PB~;8KFfh~~ p~~~~~ff..ekJ1 T~::~:ct-t!~~~ o+-
application need not represent a deterrent, because our j/( I-( ·
discussions \"lith Mr .. Ronald Corso of FERC have indicated that, '""'~·.,,
provided the app·l ication itself describes what continuing
studies will be c:onducted, it can be filed before they are
completed.
(b) Getting up to Sp1:ed
Selection of con$ultant and, in appropriate areas of study, of
ADF&G to perform bas· ine data acquistion work has ~n
..,1~comp!is~ed bas1~d on the cri~erion.that each ?f thec_wincipal
l{j}ivest1gators must have exper1ence 1n sub-arct1c env1ronments,
preferably in Alaska.
(c) Relations.,bips with ADF&G
Our appro,ach to the issue of ensuring the ADF&G maintains its
proper status as an objective reviewing and approving authority
. . ' ' .
~ j ~ ' • • ~
f •• ) I • '4,,..
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• o' o ~ • • :< M
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\'lhile concurrently undertaking investigatory tasks involves a
unique concept. Each of the field studies and reports to be
produced by ADF&G will be produced for and funded directly by
the Power Authority. None of ·our organization charts or
concepts includes ADF&G as a subsidiary or subcontractor to
Acres. ADF&G's involvement is assumed to occur in accordance
with the following scenario:
()( .
j
(1} Bas~e. studies will be performed by ADF&G wieFe'fu~"' ~ \~
p ', ~-~ . appropria~.the data being-sttp~&-its · ~ :17'1 ~~ ~nsui·tants-~ \~J:..£tbe-\•~ d/lt{Y:.~ ~;_...._ 1 ~p-4~~
1 n.Jr.eipt/Af~,.
0
(2) TES and its consultants develop the environmental
/ . _. ·-" ·-···· assessment.
\.l
(d)
(f)
&};~
{3) ADF&G reviews and comments upon TES work which-is y·ev+ewed
~,.,-·apprGpriate~mM<i$Mtt. ~~ ~ ~~
• t
\i) Vi.
(4} Miti gatg;py measures are proposed by TES (in some cases
relying on data furnished to APA by ADF&G).
{5) ADF&G reviews proposed mitigation plans and offers
comments.
(6) TES updates earlier submission.
(7) ADF&G approves.
This procedure will be followed as necessary throughout the
period prior to FERC license approval.
Information Exchange
Our approach to involvement of environmental interests external
to the Acres team includes a series of eight workshops, each one
of which will be partially or fully devoted to environmental
· matters. Six of the workshops are scheduled in advance and two
are funded but not scheduled, to permit flexibility in response
to issues of opportunity. r .
Int~retations of NEPA
We will maintain our close review of recent CEQ actions as well
as our monitorship of FERC license processing. We intend as
well,_through our Alaska Project Office, to maintain continuous
close liaison with appropriate State agencies. State agencies
will be invited to participate as well in workshop sessions.
Mitigation
The scenario for seeking State approval for mitigation measures
has been summar.ized in subparagraph (c.) above. J.I!4~~en.? ~io!Ylo r~lv~ ~~Y ~ t~~tion~Su"e.S~~,aS'""' oss1 ·1e pb1orl.W1i~an'Se@~mti~ 1 .. ~· . . ~ t~ ~
. ' f . ~\J~ f'.,
· r i l 'f\ ·"7 · . ,:;~ ~~,,..
( j '-'\_ (\}. .f*"t"!!/ ~
\.,;I' ,.. ) ., \)
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(g) ~onflicting or Overlapping Authorities
By seeking the involvement of Federal and State agencies
throughout the study period and especially in ~10rkshop sessions~
we seek to minimize conflicts.
(h) Historic Preservation Concerns
We w. ill schedu 1 e necessary co~ tat i ons~o historic.. pre. serva-
tion matters with appropriat(.f)deral an s te agencies. Our
plans.to ensure archeological reconnaissa ce prior to site
disturbance will also contribute to our satisfaction of problems
in this area.
(vii) Licensing
Paragraph A.2.1 identified numerous difficulties which can occur in
obtaining an FERC license. Although the list touches upon the
problems which appear applicable to Susitna5 others can arise during
the lengthy process.
Our-approach to the 1 icens i ng issue ca 11 s for the estab 1 i shment of <t
small team whose entire efforts will be devoted to coordinating the
preparation of the total application as well as to maintaining
frequent contact with FERC. Whereas individual exhibits~ill be
generally prepared as outputs of other tasks, this focal point for
licensing work will provide the means to minimize later interventions
by anticipating sensitive issues in advanceo Of particular
importance will be the impact of new draft regulations when they are
published. The early indications. are that some cost savings may
accrue as a result of simplifications in procedures. Even so, the
Plan of Study is necessarily based on satisfaction of current
regulations. We will propose changes at a later date-if
appropriate.
Particularly important in the licensing of a large project such as
Susitna is the effective scheduling of preparatory activities. Plate
A.2.1 indicates our proposed scheduling of all activities which we
propose to undertake prior to submission of the lic~nse application,
and aften-1ards. The essential philosophy of our proposed approach is
to involve the FERC as soon as possible and to initiate contacts with
all concerned local, state and Federal agencies and individuals well
in advance of the submission. Yet the submission must respon~
adequately to the requirements laid down by the FERC. We confidently
project a 30 month period to fully complete the data acquisition
i'"equirements for submission of a compliant license application to the
FERC. We base these projections on our experience and discussions
with FERC staff. license activities are discussed in detail in Task
10~ Section A5 of this POS. ·
(viii) Public Participation
The overall Qbjectives of the public participation program ar-e
t\iofold: to keep the public fully informed and to provide a means
whereby the public can influence the work. These objectives will be
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satisfied in general by conducting a thorough and enthusiastic public
information program which includes multi-media exposure, scheduled
events, resources set aside to capitalize on unforeseen information
opportunities, and a total conmitment to establishment of a contin-
uously available and acc,essible information office; and the provision
for dynamic planning. It is this latter facet of the public
participation program which distinguishes it from more conventional
approaches. Simply stated, we have built into the study process a
provision for incorporating newly identified actions as well as
independent review procedures. Our plan of study is an excellent
blueprint for licensing.. Public input a~d the sage advice of
jndependent panels of experts cannot help but improve the plan .... -and
thus, the study--as the work proceeds.. Our specific approach to
resolution of previously identified problems is as follows:
(a) Conflicting Interests
{b)
A series of milestones, including all public meetings and
workshops, will become the trigger for preparation of action
lists. Each substantive comment or concern will be translated
into a specific action or will be recommended for rejection by
the project manager. Proposed actions w1th significant impacts
on time, schedule, or concept will be referred to APA for spe-
cif~c approval. Other actions of lesser apparent consequences
will be routinely processed and undertaken, with APA kept fully
informed. Those comments and concerns which are recommended for
rejection will be referred for consideration (alortg with reasons
for recommending rejection) to APA and to the appropriate
externa.l review board.. (Note that both engineering and
environmental review boards have been proposed.) The proposed
actions as well as recommended rejections will represent ~he
study team's best efforts to resolve conflicting interests and
concerns. Even so, there is no reasonable way to ensure that
all publicly expressed desires will be satisfied. Creation of
an action list will provide .the vehicle so that every concern is
at least explicitly considered and deliberations of external
review boards will provide further recourse for those who
disagree with the position taken by the project manager.
Impacts on Schedule .~
The extensive public participat'ion progr~. . s'~ribed in detail y.
in Task 12 (Section AS) and illustrated(a.tSP:1ates in tha~ ) ,.1 (_
section has been designed to permit maxlmtfrii public review and :, ~/c
comment activities without disrupting the progress of the study.'-"
By publishing monthly progress reports, by conducting frequent
workshops open to the public, and by allowing ample review
periods for important reports prior to public meetings~ .we
believe that it will be possible to maintain the agreed schedule
and ensure maximum public participation.
Changing to Accommodate the Pub 1 i c Interest
Whereas it is both possible and proper to plan for review
periods under the assumption that the proposed plan of study
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will proceed as _originally prepared, there is no way to predict
with certainty the extent to which actions introduced thtough
the public participation program. will influence schedules and
costs. To minimize problems which may occur in this ~rea, we
have sought to involve the public immediately upon commencement
of the study effort and to establish continuous coordination
procedures for various interested agencies, with particular
attention to those charged by statute with protection of
environmental resources and those to be involved in distribution
and sale of electric power. Flexibility has been built into the
p 1 an of study to a 11 ow for accornmodat i ng a reasonab 1 e number· of
changes to be tntroduced through the public involvement
program •
·l· }A;) _Communications in Alaska
ii~. V In -r~cognition of the extensive area which would be served by
the proposed project, provisions have bE~n made in the public
participation program to allow for broad information coverage as
well as the widest possible involvement. Each regularly
scheduled public meeting is actually a set of three meetings to
be he.ld in Anchorage, Fairbankss and Talkeetna. A total of
~ight workshops, each one of which may involve separate sessions
· with utilities, regulatory agencies, and environmental interest
organizations, are planned. Locations for workshops will be
chosen with a view toward maximizing public exposure. Indeed,
the public participat:ion plan is founded on the principle of
taking aggressive action to seek public involvement rather than
passive tolerance of public interests. No matter when or where
meetings are scheduled, though, it is inevitable that.some
interested individuals will simply be unable to attend. We will
have broad information coverage and our proposed jnformation
office will receive comments and suggestions at any time during
the course of the study. Actions developed as a result of these
latter inp~ts will be treated in a fashion similar to those
_introduced during or incident to formal meetings and workshops.
CRt'. Role of APA f/ {
{;1 To ensure total objectivity in the· conduct of this program, it
" will be carried out by employees of the Power Authority.
Constant coordination and knowledge of project status will be
enhanced by the fact that the APA public participation staff
will be colocated with Acres project personnel.
(ix) Control and Coordination
A number of approaches to the development of a successful large-
project management· plan have been tried in the past. We believes
from this experience, that sponsors of large projects are beginning
to recognize the importance of first developing a progrt\m planning
guide for the management of these projects.
The tendency in the past has been to inundate a project \\dth a
relatively large number of planners and manager-s. There is nothing
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wrong with large numbers of managers and planners, when they are
needed, but we believe that the 1 arger and more comp1 ex a project,
the more important it becomes to have a small gr.oup generating the
p 1 an. Our experience on 1 a rge projects has revea 1 ed that a re 1 a-
tively small number of planner?· actually prepare the Specifications
for the plan. That is, during a preliminary planning phase, they
should develop in considerable detail the specific element:s that the
project mat)ager or construction management contractor or the .
management organization are to prepare during the planning period.
Whether a large project is located in an ~t"ea that lacks local
services and therefore depends upon outside support, or in an area
with an existing, well-developed service base, an extensive planning
effort is requir·ed to handle the great number of parallel and
similar organization concepts-required to effectively manage the
project. We are prepared to include such a planning effort as a
product of the POS.
(a) Planning, Control and Management of the POS
Clearly, the POS, .with funds in excess of $8 million already
allocated and an eventual expenditure of over $20 million,
qualifies as a 1 arge project and dictates the need for a more
than casual approach to the planning and control. A
business-oriented approach will be required to deliver, cost
effectively, the final products of the POS. Effective
11 front-end 11 planning and the early involvement of the project
management team is a key determinant of the project•s success.
Cost/schedule/financial control development and the preparation
of corporate/administrative policies and procedures must
para11e1 and be a part of front end planning and design.
Effective implementation of the controls and procedures and the
participation, acceptance and commitment to follow through to
project completion must be incorporated into the program. We
are conmitted to provide these services through the assignment
of a relatively small group of well-qualified individuals to
the POS team. In particular, the extensive Alaskan experience
in large project management offered by FMA will be vital
elements in our planning, control and management efforts.
The proposed schedule for undertaking this POS is presented in
Plate A2.1. ·
(b) Planning the Eventual Construction Program
Certainly the multi-billion dollar construction phase of~he
Susitna hydropower project qualifies as a "gfant"1 project and
comes complete with the myriad of problems associated with
11 giant 11 projects. In this respect, the ability of the POS team
to effectively plan this monumental project may prove to be the
most important product of the the POS. The Acres/Moolin team
provides a unique combination of talent and concepts to support
this planning effort.
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A.2.3 -Proposed Program
The effective resolution of the problems to be dealt with in meeting the
overall study objectives requires the development of a carefully integrated
program of study, design and exploration. The study will be undertaken in a
series of interrelated and interdependent tasks as follows: ·
Task 1 -Power Studies
Task 2 -Surveys and Site Facilities
Task 3 ... Hydrology
Task 4 -Seismic Studies
Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration
Task 6 -Design Development
Task 7 -Environmental Studies
Task 8 -Transmission
Task 9 -Cost Estimates and Schedules
Task 10 -Licensing
Task 11 -Marketing and Finance
Task 12 -Public Participation
Task 13 -Administration
.Each of these tasks has been broken down into a manageable number of
subtasks (See Section AS). The level of effort and timing allows for
progressive determination of project feasibility with minimum expenditure of funds.
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A.2.4 -Potential Difficulties and Anticipated Methods of Handlif!g
Several of the products that are developed as a part of Task 13--Program
Administration are going to be th~ basic documents that will implement the
POS. To stress how important they ar-e would be to belabor the obvious;
these products establish the bas.ic course for the project and will be used
to enunciate strategy and policy decisions throughout the POS. The key to
the effectiveness of these programs is the early implementation and
acceptance by all members of the project team.
It is extremely important that the interface and responsibilities of each of
the subcontractors be spelled out in excruciating detail. This is best done
by listing the numerous functions that have to be performed and then making
sure that each of these functions has been assigned to a specific team.
This sounds simple, but it requires a considerable effort and an in-depth
understanding of the scope of work to tabulate all the required functions.,
Working with government agencies requires some special precautions. There
is a tendency,. when submitting plans of operations, to propose exaggerated
plans or solutions to make them sound as good as possible. These plans must
be scrutin·ized, before submission, for reasonableness and cost effective-
ness, to ensure that conditions that cannot later be tolerated are not
proposed. It is equally important that the government agencies also
participate in the preparation and review of such plans so that constraints
may be identified and planned for.
The subject of constraints is of particular importance to the planning and
estimating phases of the project. Constraints, if adequately understood in
the early stages, can be tolerated. Constraints, .. if they come up after the
start of construction, result in breaks in cadence, work stoppages, poor
utilization of equipment and manpower and direct impacts to cost and
schedule. Constraints can appear in the form of government mandates,
environmental/climatic conditions, design changes necessitated by the ·
discovery of new data as construction proceeds and other causes. Regardless
of their cause, every effort must be made during the planning stages to
identify constraints by working directly with government and other agencies
and convincing these agencies to participate in, accept and commit
themselves to this effort. In addition, the cost and benefits of
constraints must be developed, as the constraints are being identified~ to
allow APA and government officials to fully assess the impacts involved.
There must also be a close relationship between the planning and the obtain-
ing of permits from government agencies. Included in the Project Planning
Guide should be a schedule of submissions that identify what permits are
required at what point in time and when each submission will be made. ·This
will go a long way towards easing the acquisition of the myriad of permits
required.
The foregoing remarks ·are necessarily general in nature. Sections A4
through A6 of the POS describe in some detail the potential difficulties
foreseen at this time in specific ar~as of the study and the proposed
methods of overcoming them.
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TASK
1-13
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
B
....
IC
IS
DESCRIPTION 1980 l9S:t 1982:
J F M A M v J AS 0 N 0 J 0 N 0 J F · M A M J J A S 0 'N
MILESTONES
POWER STUDIES
SURVET$ a SITE FACILITIES
HYDROLOGY
SEISMIC STUDIES
GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATION
COMMENCE
STUDY
LOAD FORECAST
CAMPS
DATA REVIEW
1
I DATA REVIEW
SUSlTNA BASIN
GO/ NO-GO
ALTERNATIVES
·1
DEVELO?MENT
. SELECTiON
DAM .
SELECTION
SURVEYS SELECT ACCESS ROUTE
~~ CONTINUOUS CAMP OPERATlON -+--oi---4--1---+--J.----+---:a~o-.,..t
1
CONTINUOUS PROCESS.tNG & STUDt ES
I 'MONITORING l
PRELIMINARY EVALUATION ISYSTEM J
I ~
REPOR
WlNTER
PROGRAMt PLAN l SUMMER
PROGRAM
REFINED
EVALUATION
REPORT
I
DATA PROCESSING
CONSULTING
PLAN
FEASISILJtY a UCENSt
SUBMISSION
DESIGN DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT SELECTION DAM SELECTION V ·~~~--~a+--~~~~.-~--~~-.--.-~~--~ .......... ~~~~-
EXHIBIT E J ·I ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Pl:ANNING t PERFORM FIELD STUDIES
TRANSMISSION
DATA REVIEW CORRirJOR SEU::CTION .
COST ESTIMATES 6 SCHEDULES
MARKETING a FINANCING
PUBLIC PARTIClPATION (4}
ADMINISTRATION
1
PRELIMINARY
1 I DATA ,_,_._..__,_.mlf•--
TAX EXEMPTION"a
MARKET ISSUES
I DEVELOP
+PROCEDURE
LEGEND: REPRESENTS SUSTASK COMPLETION
DATA
I .,..~_,.:-+-CONTINUeD DATA AQUISITION
·s:. -,. ..... gr r.,. 111!1,..
ALTERNATIVES SUSITt~A
RISK ANALYSIS RISK ANALYSIS
w
. l
...._.1-cf--+--APPLY PROCEDURES +---+---.-HJ~oo
ws w
IMPACT
ANALYSIS
I
PAE:Ll M I NARYI
DESIGN
EXHl.BlTS
INPUT TO
LL::!ENSE
FINAL
PM+ REVIEW
NOTES: ( I) TENTATIVE BASED ON COMPLETION OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUD.IES AND PL.t\NS FOR tNVESTlG.O.TION
(2) ACCESS TRACK CONSTRUCTION IS ASSUMED TO COMMENCE IN 1982 FOR PURPOSES OF u FAST-TRACKu PROJECT CO"PLETION ONLY.
COSTS ARE INCLUDED IN ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN AFTER SUBMISSION OF LICENSE APPLICATION.
(3) GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATION IS ASSUMED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 19-88 FOR PURPOSES OF "FAST-TRACK" COMPLETION.
COSTS ARE INCLUDED lN ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN AFTER SUBMISSION OF UCENSE APPUCAT.ION.
(4) PM:: PUBUC MEETING; WS =WORKSHOP
.
..
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L
1983 1984 t985
I I
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE A2.J = SUMMARY S~HEOOLE
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SECT I ON A3 -BUDGET SUM~1ARY
Summaries of estimated study costs and man-hours for periods through
submission of the FERC license application (June 30, 1982) and subsequently
through receipt of license (tentatively esti"mated as January 1985) are
presented in Tables A.3&1 through A.3.16. These summaries are presented by
Task and, in Table A.3.15, quarter. All costs are in 1979 dollars~
effective through the_first quarter of 1980, with escalat·1on beyond that
date assumed at a rate of 8.5 percent per annum.
Two alternatives are possible after a license application has been
submitted. One approach \'tould accelerate the "on 1 i ne" date for a potential
project by advancing detailed design and associated activities sufficient to
permit starting construction virtually immediately after a license is
received. The second approach focuses only on those activities essential to
award of license, deferring commencement of construction until some time
thereafter. Section A6 describes both alternativeso Table A.3.16 provides
cost information for the second, more conservative, alternative.
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I Consul-tan-t S ubf'as k -1.01
I ACRES Man hours 50
Man hour CosT $ l, 700
I Disbursement-s* 1,300
Subi"o-tal $ 3.ooo
·I wee Man hours 350
I Man hour Cost's s 22,.200 $
Of sours emen"ts 10,000
I Sub'to"tal s 32,200 $
TES Man hours
I Man hour Cos"t
Dl sbursemeni"s
I Sub"to"taJ
I TOTAL MANHOURS 400
I TOTAL COSTS
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*lncl ud ing AI aska Off lea Expense
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SUStTNA HYDROELECTRrc PROJ~CT -ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
.
TABLEA.3-.J. COST ESTIMATE-TASK 1, POWER STUDIES
1 .. 02 1.03 1.04. 1.05
10 540 140 70
s 2,500 $ 19,000 s 26,000 s 2,500
1,500 3,000 4,000 500 -
s 4,000 s 22,000 $ 30,000 $ 3,000
450 190 1,200
28,700 49.,300 s 77~000
15,000 15,000 13,000
43,700 $ 64,300 $ 90,000
320 1~430
s 8,900 s 40,400
1,100 4 1 600:
SlO.rOOO $45,000
520 t, 650 740 2,700
.$4 7, 700 $96,300 $30,000 $138,000
1.06
2SO.
$ 1 o,ooo
2,000
$ 12,000
280
Addendum -to POS
December ts. 1979
Totals
Manhours Costs
1,. 750
s 61,700
12,300
$ 74,.000
2,790
$177,200
53,0()0
$230,200
1lf750
.s 49,300
5,. 1!tQ.
s 55,000
$359,.200
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ConsultanT Sub1·ask-
~ Manhours
Manhour O:ls1". I Disbursements~
Subtotal ·
IR&M Man hours
-1 Manhour Cost
Disbursements
~ Subto-tal~ . . ..
I
CIRl/H&N. Man hours
I Manhour CosT
D1 sbursements
-Carnp FacJ I !tles
I -Fuel
·-Food
I Subtotal
.~ High take lodge
Alrpor't
Consiructlon
Air -
I Transpori"atlon
Subfoial
I.
TOTAL MANHOURS
I TOTAL COSTS
I *lncJ udlng Alaska Office Expenses
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:l.01 2.02 2.03 2.04
285 30
$10,000 s 1,000
$10;000 .Sl,OOO
945
$33,000
$33,000
57#000 370
$1p995,200 $13,000
2,000
1,901,900
219~000
256,000
$4,372,100 $15,000
$382.,500
$1,1z;3,800
$510,000
$892,500 $1,123,800
,7,000 1,230 400
$5,264,600 $1,166,800 $16,000
r
SUSITW. HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT-ALASKA POWER At.rrHORJTY Addendun to POS
iABLEA.3.2 COST ESTif.t.ATE -TASK 2! SURV-EY AND SITE FACILITIES December tS,p 1979
Totals
2 .. 05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.1 •. 2 .. i5 2.16 Man hours Costs
15 . 30 75 630 430 860 25 15 15 200 205 260 3,175
$500 $1,000 $2,600 122.,000 $15,.000 30_...0~ :$800 $500 .$4,000 S-7,000 $7,.200 $9,000 $110,600 400 3,000 s.ooo s,ooo 200 BOO 500 t,ooo 1 ,.OO..Q_ 16,900
$500 $1,00\"\ $3,000 $25,.000 $20,.000 $35#000 $1~000 $500 $4,800 $7,500 $8,200 SlO.,t\00 $12.7,500
1,430 7.,500 6,300 4,570 too 100 40 4,290 25,275
$50,000 $262,000 $220,000 $160,000 $3,600 $4,000 $1,500 $150,000 $884,100 10z000 23Bsr000 90,000 40,000 400 1,000 400 ' 30,000 409,800
$60so000 $500,000 $310-'000 $200,000 $4J'OOO $5,000 $1,900 $180,.000 $11'293~900
255 340 230 58,195
;·
$8,000 $9~000 $12,000 ~
.$2,037,200 1,000 21'000 1,800 6,.800
27376,900
$10,000 :$14,000 $9.,800 $4,.420,900
"'
$2,016,300
270 370 1,505 8,130 6,750 5,430 125 ll!ij 285 200 205 4,545 86,645
$10,500 $15,000 $63,000 $525.,000 $330,000 $235,000 .$5,.000 S5,5QP $16,500 $1,500 $8,200 $190,000 ~ .-. $7,858,600
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Consultant
ACRES
R&M
Direct
.CosT-s-·-.
. -::-
I
Subtask
Man hours
Manhour Cos-ts
Dl s bursemen-ts*
-Travel
-Consu1-tan1"s
-Compu-ter Servtces
--·communlcai-lons
-Reproduction
Subto-tal
Manhours
Manhour Costs
Dlsbursemeni's
-Cons u I i'a n 1-s
-CompuTer Services
-CommunlcaTions
-Reproduci 1 on
-Labor i:lTory
EqulpmenT
Subto-tal
flxed Wing AircrafT
Hell cop-ter
Sub-toTal
TOTAL MANHOURS
TOTAl COSTS
I * lnctudlng Alaska Office Expenses
I
3.01
60
$2,700
1,200
300
200
$4,400
135
S5.600
300
200
$6,100
195
$10,500
3 •. 02
3,440
$69,700
.s 75,200
3,440
$75,200
SUS!TNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALASKA ?O.WER AUTHORITY
1
TABLE A .• 3 .. 3 COST EST I MATE ... TASK 3 t HYDROLOGY
3.03
330
$15,000
$15,000
$468,900
5,000
16,000
1#700
1.,000
125,000
208,000
$825,600
$ 44,000
350,000
$394,000
3.04
3,270
$87,200
1~700
7,2QO
l ,000
200
$97,300
480
$16,800
2,500
1,500
500
S21 ,300
3, 750
3.05
740
S19~~'600
1,000
7,500
2,500
800
200
$3 t ,600
850
$29,600
5,000
1,000
500
$36,100
$67,700
3 .. 06
1¥ aoo
$48,100
1,500
5,000
5:1'500
1,000
200
$6.1,300
1,050
$37,100
5,000
1, 000
500
2,850
$104,900
3.07
45
$1::,000
$2,000
830
S30,200
5,000
500
500
$36,200
$
7,500
$7,500
875
$45 .. 700
3.oa
350
1, 700
l, 500
1 ,ooo
500
$14,000
350
$14,000
~
.. '3 .. 09
320
sn,aoo
2,000
300
zoo·
370
$14.;.300
180
$8,000
1, 000
1,000
500
$10,500
$60,000
1~000
45,000
$106.,000
s 4,000
20,000
$24.000
l,890
$140.500
Addendum +o P~::S .
Dec~rnber 18, f:979
Totals
Man hours
6,775
22,745
29,520
Cos-ts
S..,ttt.f.D
12, !ili~D
16,7IDll
5, t«:~tl}
1 ,a:mn
S236,.tmn
$
s,uam
37 ,SID.D
6,.tt.mD
6,.4-ID.D
126.GGID
253,tlmD
48,1IIDD
377,S:iDD
S425.sm:n
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I~
Consultant
ACRES
wee
Subtask -
.Man hours
t-'anhour Cost
Disbursements*
Subto-tal
Man hours
Man hour Cost
D i sbursemeni"s
Sub'to"tal
TOTAL
P.1ANHOURS
4.01
30
s 900
100
$1,000
1,240
$53 .. 000
4,000
$57,000
1,270
4 .. 02 4.03 4.04
110 30 30
$3,.600 $ 900 s 900
400 100 100
$4,000 $1,000 s 1,000
2,520 440 880
$158,000 $17,000 $37,000
95r000 15,000
$253,000 $17,000 s 52,000
470 910·
..
if
sus rrNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT -1\LASK~ POWER AUTHORITY
TABLE A .. 3.4 COST ESTIMATE -TASK ~£ SEISMIC STUDIES • .1
<:>
4.05 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13
80 220 60 110 30 30 140 280 30
$2,700 ~ $7,200 $ 1 .,800 $3,600 s 900 $. 900 $4,500, s 9~000 ~s 900
300 800 200 400 100 100 500 1,000 100 -
f
$3,000 sa,ooo $2,.000 $4,000 :$1,000 s 1,000 $5,000 $10,000 '$1,000
2,880 3,720 680 920 1,240 240 3,240 3,920 240
$115,000 $128,000 $26,000 $36,000 $51,000 $9,000 $127,000 $135 .. 000 s 9,000
5,000 10"000 5,000 4,000 10,000 to,ooo 8,ooo 2,000
$120,000 s 138,000 $31,000 $40,000 $61,000 $9,000 $137,000 $143,000 $11,000
3,940 7 40 -1, 030 1,270 . 270 3,380 270
TOTAL COSTS $58,000 $257,000 $18,000 $53,QOO $123,000 $146,000 $33,000 $44,000 $62,000 $10,000 $142~000 $153,000 $1:2 1 000
* Including Alaska Office Expenses
4.14
160
$6,000
t,ooo
$7,000
160
Addendum to POS
December ta. 1979
Toi"a Is
4.15 Manhours Cos~s
440 1,620
$14,000
2,000.
$16,000
120
$4,500
500
$5,000
560
22,440
24,060
$
$51,800
6e-200
$58,000
911,500
169,500
$1,081,000
$7,000 $21,000 $lp139.000
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I
Consultan't
ACRES
R&M -
Dtrec't
Cos't
•)
Subi'ask -
Man hours
r-1anhour Costs
Disbursements*
Subtotal
Man hours
Manhour Costs
Disbursements
-· Dr t! llng/
Geophy s 1 cat
-Eq ul pment
-Clearing
-Laboratory
Subto'tal
He I i cop-ter**
TOTAL MAHHOURS
TOTAL COSTS
5.01
315
$10,000
3;?000
$13,000
1,265
$10,000
$10,000
1"580
$23,000
Jncfudlng Alaska Office Expenses
** Includes Task 7 Requ1remen~s
5.02
11200
$39,500
500
$40,000
1,200
SUStTNA HYDROELECTRlC PROJECT .... ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
TABLEA.3.5 COST EST1MATE-TASK 5, GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATION
5.03
420
s 1 5,000
120,000
$135,000
85
$3,000
$3,000 .
505
$138,000
5o04
3,850
$154,000
17,500.
$171,500
5,530
436,000
15,000
50,000
21,000
$711,000
$272,000
9,380
.$1!' 154.,500
875
$35,000
$35,000
600
$21,000
$21,000
1,475
$56,000
s.oG
$260,000
17,500
$277,500
10,500
$367 ,_850
610,150
25,000
5Q, 000
80,000
$1.,133,000
$526,000
17,080
5.07 5-.08
1,250 ~,250
$50~000 $191,500
8,500
$50,.000 $200,000
640
$22,500
$22,500
1:~~890 5,2.50
$72,500 $200,000
Addendum +o POS
December 18, 1979
Totals
Manhours Costs
19,740
167,000
$922,000
18,620
$613,350
1,287,150
$1"'900,500
$798,000
. 38,360
$3,620,500
-
I SUS lTNA HYDROEU::CTR IC PROJECT -A.LASKA. POWER AUTHOR tTY Addend t2n to POS
-~ember 18, 1979
I TABLEA .. 3.6 ·COST EStiMATE -TASK 6,. DESIGN DEVELOPMENT
.. . !:;:
ConsUlTant Subi·ask-6 .. 01 6.02 6.03 6.04 6.05 6.06 6 .. 07 6.08 6.09 6 .. 10 6.11 6 .. 12 6«>13 6.14 6 .. 15 I ~-
-1,100
t ACRES Man hours 1,325 2,055 1,790 425 415 1,785 1,260 910 1,105 3,515 3,225 940 S45 2,085
-I
~ohour CosTs $45,750 $51,300 $55,450 $12,200 $12,850 $52,250 $37,250 $27,700 :$33.050 $32,850 $109,050 $95,!).50 $30,050 $16,400 $64.550
Disbursements 4,250 5,700 4,950 1r200 1 ,J5Q. 5,150 _?,.750, 2,700 2,950 2,850 10,.950 9,450 2,950 1,600 .. 6,450
Subt-otal $50,000 $63,000 $60,400 $13,400 $14,000 $57,400 $41,000 $30,400 $36,000 $35.? 700 $120,000 $105.,000 $.33,000 $18,.000 $71,000
I R&M Man hours 130
I Manhour Costs $4,500
Disbursements 500
Subtotal $5,0(10
I
I TOTAL MANHOURS 130
TOTAL COSTS $55,000 $63,000 $60,400 $13,40~ $34,000 $57,400 $41,000 $30,400 $36,000 $35,700 $120.000 $105,000 $53,000 $18,000 $71,000
I ~
'
I Totals
'!
I Consul+8nt Subnssk-6.16 6.17 6.18 6.19 6.20 6.21 6.22 6.23 6.24 6.25 6.26 6.27 6.28 6.29 6.30 6.31 Man hours Costs
0
ACRES Manhotrs 1,890 2,315 2,590 1,215 1.950 1,800 1,980 2.,710 2,655 8l5 3,005 2,955 550 1.,945 1,865 1,290 54,010
II
CQ>nt'd)
' Manhour Costs $59,050 $78,200 $74,500 $33,300 $55,450 $50,90(). $57,250 $77~400 $75,500 $25,000 1 $86,500 $84,700 $17,750 $54,650 $52,800 $40,800 $1,606,.000
Disbursements 5,950 7,800 7,.500 3,300 5,550 s, 100 5,750 7,600 7,.500 2,500 8,500 8,300 t,s5o 51 350 5,2QQ. 4,200 158,000
II Subtotal $65.,000 $86,000 $82,-COO $36,600 $61,000 $56,000 $63,000 $85,000 $83,000 $27.,500 $95,000 :$93,000 $19,600 $60,000 $58,000 $45,000 :$1,764#000
~. R&M
(Cont'd) 130 $5,000
TOTAL MANHOURS 54,.140
I TOTAL COSTS $65,000 $86,000 $82;000 $56,600 $61,000 $56,0<m $53,000 $85.,000 $83,000 $27,500 $95,000 $93,000 S.t9,600 $60,000 $58,000 $65,000 ~769r;OOO
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I
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I
Consul'ti:int
ACRES
TES -
F.O.A.
U of t\
AOF&G**
Sub'task-
V.anhouF Costs
Dt sbcrsemen·ts*
Subtotal
Man hours
Manhour Cost
Dl sbursements
Subtotal
Man hours
Mallhour Cos-t
Di sbursemeni"s
Subtotal
Man hours
Manhour Cost
Disbursements
Subtotal
Sub·total
100
$27 jJ 100
22,400
$49,500
10,820
$255,100
58t300
$313,400
C.A.& M.S. Manhours
Direct
Cost
Manhour Cost
Disbursements
Subtotal
EquipmenT for
Subtask 7.10
TOTAl MANHOURS 11,500
f)
TOTAl COSTS $362,900
25
$11000
1 ,OO..Q.
.$2,000
2,845
$126,100
l2z800
$138,900
2.,870
$140,900
* lncludlng Alaska. Office Expenses ** Manhours and Labor CosTs ·not Av~t I able SeparaTely
7.03
.~.'" .... ~ .. ' . ,"1
~
1
7.04
35
$1,500 2,coo
$3,500
.200
$6,600 t,ooo
$7,600
235
$11,100
7.05
30
StttlOO
1,700
$2,800
795
$29,000
5,900
$34,900
3,400
$102,700
25,700
$128,400
4,225
$166,~00
~ .~ .
SUS~ HVOROELE'~nnc' PROJEC·
TABLE~ 3.7 COST E~lMATE -. ,
90
$4,100
1,900
$6,000
875
$33Jt900
6,300
$40,200
17,320
$410,600
72,900
$483,500
18,285
$529,700
7,.07
20
s 7oo
300
$1,6100
1,050
$27,.500
6,300.
$33,800
1,500
$52,300
16;,o000
$68,300
2,570
$103,100
320
$8,400
2,100
$10,500
200
$6,900
4,700
$11,600
520
$22,100
90
$4,100
,1,900
$6,000
1.120
$31,500
4,8QQ.
$36,300
1,.210
7.10
14,680
$455.500
87,800
$544,300
2,400
$90,000
6,000
$96.,000
170
s 7~900
6t100
Sl4,000
2,890
$123,100
28,200
$151,300
17,020
$266,.600
72,900
$339,500
1,660
$80~800
8,500
$89,300
21,740
$42.300 $2,11 0., 123 $1,906 J> 100
.~ 1\ ~\"'t~~J
2,985
$91,900
21 ,ooo
$112,900
18,800
$315,300
61,300
$376,.600
21,. -;as
$489,500
,7.13
..
!-<
~~--·--:-_:-
7.14
20
st,ooo
1,000
$2,000
785
$22 •. 200
6,000
$28,200
$2,600
1,900
$.4~00
1,350
$39,000
_!,300 '
$48;1>300
805 1:.410
$30,200 $52,.800
Addend..-a to POS
.December 18, 1979
Totals
Man hours
1,390
40:~715
3,400
54,840
104,405
Costs
S1 ,250,800 ·
249,800
s l, 500 lt 600
$102,700
25,700
.Si28,.400
$1,051.,700
227,800
.$1,279,500
'$170,.800
14.-500
$185, . .300
.$409,600
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I
Consulta~1"
ACRES
Sub1:"ask -
Man hours
Manhour Cost
OJ sbursements*
Ex-terna t
Consu I tan"fs
TOTAL MANHOURS
TOTAL COSTS
Jncludlng Alaska Office Expense
"
s.ot 8.02
2,300 3,900
$75,700 $130,300
20,500
2,.300 3,900
$83,200 $150,800
SUS iTNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT -ALASKA POWER AUTHOfUTY
TASK A.3.8 COST ESTlMJ\TE -TASK 8! TRANSMlSSION
8.03 8 .. 04 a.os
5,600 2,200 2,300
$185,500 S7:S,ooo $76,800
19,500 ~ 4,500 4,5Ub
$1,.000 Sl,OOO
2,200
$206,.000 $78,500 $81 ,300
\
8.06
2,1Ul)
$68,500
10,500
S20,000
2,100
>I.
l
.. .
a .. o;
900
$28,000
2,500
900
$30,500
Addendum -tC) POS
December 18• 1979
'Y'otzsl s
·Manhours Cos-ts
19,300
$637,600
69,500
$22,.000
$729,300
I. . ' ..
I -<~,1>
I
I
I Consul-tant' Subtask -
I. ACRES Man hours
Manhot~~ Gos1's
I Dls.t;..ursemea-:-.ts*
Sub-total
1'-
FMA Man hours
I Man hour Cost
Dtsbursemeni"s
I Subtotal
I TOTAL MANHOURS
I TOTAL COSTS
I * Including Alaska Office Expense
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SUS ITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ALASKA POWER AUTHORtTY
TABLE A.S.9 CGST ESTIMATE -· TASK 9, COST ESTIMATES & SCHEDULES
9 .. 01 9.02 9.03 9.04
225 530 1.~320 995
$ 9,100 $18,100 $47,700 $31.,800
900 1,900 5,300 3,200
$10,000 $20,000 $53,000 $35,000
300 60 480 540
t 9,400 $1,800 $14,900 $16,900
600 2.00 t,too 3, 100_
' SJO,OOO $2,000 $16,000 $20,000
525 590 1,535
$22,000 $69,000 $55,0:00
9.05
355 I
$11,900
1,100
$13,000
170
$5~300
700
$6,000
525
s t 9.,000
j. r
'.
Addendum to POS
Dec$mber 18, 1979
Man hours
3,455
4
I
1,550
. . .. ·.
-~~005
. "
Total.s
Costs
$118,600
12,400
$131,000
$48,300
5,700
$54,000
$185,000
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Consultant
ACRES
Subtask -
Man hours
Man hour Cos1"'
Oisbursemen+s*
Legal Revlev
Subi·ota l
TOTAL
MANHOURS
TOTAL
COSTS
10.01
230
sa,ooo
1,000
$9,000
230
$9,000
* lncludinB Alaska Offlce Expense
0
10.02
630
$22,000
3,000
10,000
$35,000
630
$35,000
SUSITNA HYOROEtECTR!C PROJECT-ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
TASK A .. 3 .. 10 COST ESTIMATE -TASK 10, LICENSING
10.03 10.04 10.05 10.06 10.07
25 1,430 715 2,430 630
s 900 $50,000 $25,000 $85,000 $22,000
100 6,000 2,500 1 o, 000 3»000
.
St,OOO $56,000 $27,500 $95,000 $25,000
25 1,~~ 430 2,430 630
$1,000 $56,000 $27,500 s 95,.000
.
<
10.08 10 .. 09
{
130 885
$4,500 S3 ·t,ooo
500 4,000
$5,000 $35,000
130 885
$5,000 $35,000
10 .. 10
115
$4,000
1,000
$5,000
115
Addendum to ?OS
Dece~ber 18, 1979·
Totals
Manhours
7,220
7,220
Cos-ts
$252,400
31; 1 00
10,000
$293,500
$293,500
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I
I
I-
I
Consut·~ant
ACRES
wee
FMA -
SALOMOtt
BROTHERS
Subtask -
Man hours
Manbour Cost
DisbursemenTs
Subi"ot"at
Manhour CosT
& Dlsbursemeni"s
Manhour Cost
l. DisbursemenTs
Fe&
11 o()'t
1,.600
$671'300
tol!aoo
$78,100
$21,400
TOTAL MANHOURS
TOTAL COSTS $99,500
11.02 -
900
$38,400
-7!:400
$45,800
$45,800
$91,600
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT-AlASKA POWER AuTHORITY . .
TABLEA.3 .. ~~ COST ESTIMATE-T"S'K lt:;M"ARKETING & FINANCING
11.03 11 .. 04 11 •. 05 11.06 11.07 tt.08
270 370 160 80 350
$10,500 $14,500 $6,100 $3,800 $1-4.000
4t500 4!500 3e900 1 !200 6!000
$15,000 $19,000 $10.000 $5,000 $20,000
$2,500
$71,300 $5,000
St7,500 $24,500 $1 o,.ooo $25,000
: ;
11.09 11.10 11 • 11
40
$1,800
1 !200
"'
$3,000 -
$35,700
Addendum to POS
December 18, 1979
Tota Is
Man hours
3,770
3,770
Costs
$156,400
39,500
$195,900
$2,500
$5,500
$179,200
$383~100
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I
I
I
• I
I
I
Consul-tanT/
Author tty
ACRES
CIRf/H&ti
wee
TES
FMA
R&M
Sub-task -
Manholl!.rs
Man hour Cost
Disbursements*
Sub'total
Man hours
Man hour CosT
DisbursemenTs
Subtotal
. Man hours
Man hour Cost
Ot s bursemen'ts
Subtot-a!
Man hours
Man hour Cost
Dlsbursemen-ts
Sub-total
Men hours
Manbollr Cos"t
Dl sb.ursemen'ts
Subtotal
Man hours
Manhour Cos-ts
Disbursemen-ts
Subto-tal
TOTAL
MANHOURS .
TOTAL COST
* lncludlng Alaska Office Expense
SUSlTN. A HYDROELECTRIC POWER PROJECT -.ALASKA POWER AUTHOR.ITY " ' - -' ' . -
Addandum to POS
December t 8.6 1979
' TABLE A.3.12 COST EST.Il.\ATE-TASK 12, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
To-tals . .. ... ..
Manhours -·~ Cos-ts . --12.01 12.02 12.03 12 .. 04
1,285 1~140 285 ~.710
s 95.000
206f900 s $45,000 $4(),000 $10.000
121,500 14,800 6,100 64p500
$121,500 $59,800 $46.100 $74,.500 $301..,900
170 150 ~20
$11,000
l;r;OOO . . $6,000 $5,000
1,000 800
$7,000 $5,600 $12~800
170 300 470
s 16,000
.; 2!500 $6.000 $10,000
t,noo 1,500
S?.OOO $11,500 $18.500
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{
1,270 300
s 1 6.ooo
2!500 $6.000 .$10.000
t,ooo 1,500
$7,000 $11,500 $18.500
170 -150 320
$11.000
; 1,800 S6,.000 $5,.000
1,000 800
$71!000 $5,.800 $12,800
470 ": .. •' 170 300
$16.000
2!500 $6,000 $10,000
1,000 1z500
$7$000 $11,500 . $18,500
....... -
4,.660 .
$121,500 $94.,800 $92,200 $74,.500 $383,.000
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SUSITNA HYOROElECTR.JC PROJECT -ALASKA ?OWER AUTHORITY . Addendum to POS r., December l8 1 1979
TASK A.3«13 COST EST .I MATE -TASK l3z ADMINtSTRATION
I Totals .
Consul tan+ Sub-task -13o01 13.02 13.03 13.04 13.05 13.05 13.07 13.08 13.09 Man hours Costs
I ACRES Man hours 35 50 40 840 1,940 15 740 t5 1, 150 4~825
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M~ohour Cos-ts $1.300 $1~800 $1.~~500 $29,500 $.68,000 $500 $26.,000 $500 $4 5,100 s 1 "'t4 i. 200 ~
Dl sbursements * 200 400 200 3,500 8,000 3,000 -20,700 36,000 -
Sub'tofal $1,500 $2,.200 $1,700 S33,000 $76,000 $500 $29.000 $.500 $65 ,'8.00 $i210~200
I FMA Man hours 50 60 45 930 2,130 15 1, 12:.5 30 40 4.4-25
Manbour Costs $1,600 $2.000 $(,500 $29,700 .$.68,400 $500 $36., 000 $1,000 $1,300 $142,000
Disbursements 200 200 2.00 3!500 a,.ooo 4!000 200 200 16,500
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Subfo"t.al $1,800 $2, ~.00 $1,700 $33,200 $76,400 $500 $40,000 $1,200 s 1,500 $158,500
R&M Man hours 220 220 ~
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Manhour Cost-s. $1 o,ooo $1 o,ooo
Dl sbursemen-ts 700 700
I Sub-to"tat $10;700 $10,700
TES Man hours 1,880 1a880
I Man hour Cosi"s $50,:300 $501'300
Disbursemen-ts 15 ,8'00_ 15,800
Subto-t.at $66,100 $66,. 100
I C IR_l/H&N Man hours 30.0 300
I Man hour Cost's $15,QOO s 156000
Disbursements 52000 s,ooo .
Subtotal S20,0Cill $201'000
I wee Man hours 40 40
I Man hour Cos1"s $2,000 $2,000
Dl.sbursemen-ts 200 ~~ c 1
SubtoTal $2,'200 $2,200
I TOTAL MANHOURS 11,:690
I TOTAL COSTS $3,.300 $4,400 $3,400 $66,200 S~-52,400 St, noo $69,000 $1,700 $165,30C $457,700
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Subtotals
I, Direct Cos'ts
.ADF&G E'q u i pment
High lake lodge
Alrfleld
Air Transportation
I Subtotals
Subcontractors
CIRI/H&N
wee
TES ( Incl. Subs)
FMA
R&M
Sal omen Brothers
ADF&G
Subto-tals .1 Non-Dlscre'tlonar;y
ftPA .Adml n ls"tratton*
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ISER
land Use~~=
ADF&G Coord i natOf'
Native Inspector*
Extern a I Rev 1 ew*
Subtotals
GRANO TOTALS
Task 1
$ 61,700
·1.2,300
s
$
74~000
230,200
55,000
$285,200
$
30,000
$309 000
$389,200
$
Task. 2
$110,600
16,900
$12:1,500
382_.500
1,123,.800
510,00Q_
$2,016,:300
1,293,900
$5.~ 714,.800
S7,858,600
Task 3
$191,900
c 44,200
$236~.100
s
425,500
$425,500
1,164"400
$1,826,000
I *Assuned +o ba all.oca"ted under "general admlnlstra't1onn, Task. 13.
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s 51,800
6,200
$ 58,000
s
1,081,000
$1,.081,000
Sl, 139,000
ALASKA POWER AUlHC1UTY -SUS 1TNA HYOROELEC1RJC PROJECT
Table A~3 ... 14 -ESTtMJ\TE S\Jt.~.ARY
Task 5 Task 7 TaskS Task 9
$755,000 $1,605,000 $. 61,500 $637,800 $118,(\()0
167,000 .. 155,000, 248)800 91,500 12:r400
$922,000 $1~ 764,000 $310,.300 $729,300 $131,000
$ $409,600
795,000
$798,000 $409,600
$ $ $ s
3,093,800
54,000
5..,000
·--.-
$1.,900,500 $5,000 $5,850,400 $54,000
s
187,500
$187,.500
$3,620,500 $6,757,800 $729,300 $185,000
Task 10
S25Z,400
4' ~1()0
$293,500
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. j'l5~"100
39,500
$19!),900
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$
5·500 . ' ~ .
179.,200
$187,200
$383,100
Task 12
s 95,000
205,900
$301,900
$12,800
18,500
18,500
12,800
-18,500
$81,100
s
220,000
$503,000
Addendum to POS
December 18, 1979
Task l3t
$174..,200
3s·,ooo
$210,200
S20,000
2,200
66,100
158,500
10,700
$257,500
$287,500
90,000
120,000
1,000,000
Tot.aJ
$4,272,900
1,080,800
s 409,600
382,500
1,.1:2.3,800
1,733,500
s 4='453.,700
1,334,400
3,233.,400
2:>0..,800
4.,393,000
17.9,200
2,:156'1600
.$16.,5811100
$287.,500
220~000
30,000
90,000
187.,500
120;000
t,OOOrOOO
.
$1,.965,200 . $27,519,200
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I No~ Task Oeser ipt'lon 1
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1 Power S-tud J es $ 41,400 $
I 2
3
Surveys & Sit'e Faclll"tles 2,697,350
Hfdrolog{ 204,350
4 Seismic Studies 42,800
I 5
6
Geotechnical Explorat'lon 54,500
Des.tgn Development
7 Environmental S+udles 670,700
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9
10
Transmission 12,100
ConsTruction Cost' Esi"lmai'e & Schedule
Llccnslng 62,600
11
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Markettng & Financing
Public Part'lclpaTton 38,300
Admin is"trai'ion 228,300
I Subtotal 4;052,400
No n-O iscret i onary Amounts
I APA Adminlstratlon 2811700
APA Public ParTicipaTion 22,000
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ISER 15,000
Land Use 9,000
ADF & G Coordinator 19 .. 000
Native InspecTor 12,000
I External Review
Subtotal 105,700
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Escala-tion 8-1/2% on Tasks 1 -13 0
I Subtotal 4~ 158,100
Cumulative Cash Flow 4,158,100
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2
95,800 . $
1,304,550
65,650
189,700
570,000
7,.900
968,900
45·, 700
27,900
38,300
26,600
3,341,000
28,800
22_,000
15,000
9,000
19,000
12 .. 000
105,_800
?0,996
3 .. 517,796
7,675,896
SUSITtiA HYDROELtClR1C PROJECT -ALASKA POWER AUTHOfUlY
Table ~. 3 .. 1.5 EST I MATED sTuDY COSTS BY QUARTER
3 4 5 6
155,000 $ 67,000 $ $
1,348,350 339.,950 420,350 467,050
131,200 162,800 250,800 208,800
290,200 168,100 28,100 117,500
654,500 177,500 491.,200 712 .. 400
72,300 78,600 111,400, 166,900
726,700 727,300 674,500 675,200
47,700 47,600 36,400 109,350
48,600
15,100 15,100 15,100 15,100
39,400 39,400
38..,300 38,300 38,300 38,300
26,600 26,600 26,600 26.600
3,505,950 1,848,850 2., 132" 150 2,625.200
28,~~700 28,800 28,700 28,aoo
22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000
9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000
19,000 19,000 19;;,000 l9,000
12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
20 .. 000 180,000
90,700 90,800 t 10"'700 270,800
149,003 117,864 18l1 233 283.522
3,7456653 2,057 8 514 2,424,083 3,179,522
11,421,549 13,479,063 15,903·, 145 19,082,668
0
t98t
7 .8
$ s
505,300 287,450
224,350 2·06,~~650
146ll400 •94 ,100
693.400 152,500
258,900 486,800
666,400 650,400
129,650 135.550
n,2oo· 13,200
15,100 28,000
46,400 111,900
38,300 38.300
26,600 26,600
2,764,000 2,231.450
28,700 28,800
22,000 22,000
9,000 9,000
19,000 19,000
12.000 12.000
200,000 200,000
290JI700 290,800
362,084 343,643
3,.416,784 2,865,893
22,499,452 25,365,345
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244,150
204,350
1 32,8.00
t 67,500
483.300
443,300
135,550
46,600
26,900
94~700
38,300
26,600
1,844_,050
t
1
28,700
22,000
9,000
19,000
12,000
200,000
290,700
326,397
t
i 2,461,147
27,826.492
tO
s
244,100
167,050
29,.300
47,000
102,900
3661'900
29,100
63.,400
72.600
51 .. 300
38.300
26,600
1,239,150
28,800
22,000
9,000
1611500
12,000
200,000
288,300
250,308
l, 777,758
29,604,250
Addendum to POS
December 18,. 1979
TOTALS
$ 359,200
7,858,600
1,826,000
1,139,000
3.620,500
1, 769,000
6,570.300
729.300
185,000
293,500
383,100
383 000 11
467.,700
25,584_.,200
287~500
220~000
30~000
9·0~000
181~500
12Q~QOO
1,000~000
1,935,000
2,085,~~030
29,604~250
Revlslons
January 7. 1980
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TABLE A3.16 ,.., BUDGET SUt·1t4ARY POST LICENSE APPLICATION STUDIES (1979).
{Cost data contained \·tithin this table applies to v10rk necessary to support
successful a\'lard of a license from FERC. Activities such as detailed
design, construction contract packages, and work on an access road
discussed as part of a '!Fast Track" system in Section A6 waul d require ·
additional expenditures.)
Task No~
1·
2
3
4
5
6
7
Task Name
Pov1er Studies
Surveys & Site Facilities
Hydr.ology
Seismic Studies
G~otechnical Exploration
Design Development
Environmental Studies
8 Transmission
9
10
11
12
13
Construction Estimates & Schedules
Licensing
Marketing and Financing
Public Participation
Admi ni strati on
Subtotal
Non-diPcretionary amounts
{Include private land use payments,
Native Inspector, APA coordination,
and ADF&G environmental coordinator)
Grand Total
Cost
$3,025>000
300,000
100,000
4,810,500
430,000
200,000
250,000
$ 100,000
$9,215,500
617,500
$9,833,000
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SECTION A4 -RESPONSE TO PUBLIC COMMENT
A.4.1 -Introduction
The original version of this Plan of Study (POS) was submitted to the Alaska
Power Authority on September 11, 1979. Concurrently with that submission,
more than 50 copies were distributed to certain State and Federal Agencies
as we 11 as to pu~ 1 i c interest groups. Two opportunities for pub 1 i c
testimony were provided at Alaska Power Authority Board t1eeti ngs on ·
September 28 and November 11, 1979. In addition, written comments have been
received that resulted from a series of face-to-face discussions with
interested i ndi vi duals. Finally, P.l ans of Study submitted by other
qualified engineering firms have been reviewed vlith a view toward
identifying ideas \'Jhich could improve the origiQ.al proposed approach~
The introduction to SectionAl highlighted certain major changes \'thich have
been incorporated in this edition of the Plan of Studyo Trc purpose of this
section is to provide a more detailed summary of comments.., responses, and
actions taken since September 11, 1979. Because a strong participation
program has been planned from the start, it is certain that furthe1· changes
to the POS \'/ill be made from time to time to ensure that the work to be
performed is responsive to the needs and desires of the pub 1 i c. It fa 11 ows
that this plan is--and must be--a dynamic document.
Annex A to this Section, which appears on the following pages, is a
memorandum prepared by the Project Manager to document the manner in which
public response has been handled to date.
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ANNEX A
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 -INTRODUCTION
2 -COM~1ENTS ON ACRES' PLAN OF STUDY
2.1 -Written Comments
2 .. 2 -Verbal Comnents
3 ~ ASSESSMENT OF HARZA PROPOSAL
4 -ASSESSMENT OF IECO PROPOSAL
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1 -INTRODUCTION
Si nee the submission on September 11, 1979, of Acres' proposed Plan of Study
{POS) for the Susitna Hydroelectri~ Project, concerns and constructive
criticisms have been voiced by numerous individuals, groups, and agencies
(see Tables 1.1 and 1.2). It is the purpose of this Annex to address these
concerns and to describe possible changes to the POS where considered ·
warranted. Also, as requested by the Alaska. Power Authority (APA) the POS's
proposed by Harza and IECO have been evaulated with the intention of
extracting useful components which could improve the Acres POS.
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TABLE 1.1: LIST OF SOURCES OF WRITTEN POS COMMENTS
1. Thomas Trent, Department of Game & Fish
2. Dave Sturdevant, Department of Environmental Conservation
3. Don f~cKay, Fish and Wildlife Service
4. Paul Lowe" Alaska Centre For Environment
5. John Adams, Fairbanks En vi ronmenta 1 Center
6. Suzanne ~le 11 er, Trustees For .Alaska
7,. Pat Wennekens, Alaska Conservation Society
8. Lawrence Kimbau, Dept. of Corrmunity and Regional Affairs
9. Clarissa Quinlan, Division of En~rgy and Power Development
10. Gary Hickman, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
11. Al Carson~ Dept. of Natural Resources
12. David Kickok, University of "Alaska
13. Robert Cro~s, Alaska Power Administration
14. Robert Mohn, Alaska Power Authority
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TABLE 1 .. 2: LIST OF SOURCES OF VERBAL POS C0Mf'r1ENTS
1. Robert Cross; Alaska Power Administration
2. Thomas Stahr, Anchorage Municipal Light and Power
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
Paul Lowe, Alaska Center for Environment
Patricia Anderson, Private Citizen
Brian Rogers, Alaska State Legislator
Al Carson, Department of Natural Resources ..
Dave Sturdevant, Department of Environment"al Conservation
John Adams·, Fairbanks Environmental Center
Suzanne \<le 11 er, Trustees For Alaska
Pat Wennakins, Alaska conservation Society
Troy Sullivan, Highlake Lodge
Don McKay~ ·U,.S. Fish and Wild1 ife Service
Dale Rusnell, Department of CoffiQ1erce
Christopher Estes, Alaska Department of Fish and Game
15. Thomas Trent, Alaska Department of Fish and Game
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2 -COHMENTS ON ACREs• POS
2;1 -Written Comments
Numerous groups and agencies_have reviewed Acres' POS and have directed
written comnents to the APA (see Table lcl). Acres responses to these
conments are. listed below ..
Task 1 -Power Studies
T1.1 ··comment: The load forecasting and the feasibility study should be
separated.
Response: This is a good suggestion, anct would result in better
credibility by the public should the study show a definite
early need for the Susitna Project. To this end, the APA
\'lill contract the University of Alaska 1 s Institute of
Social and Economic Research (ISER)~ to provide the load
forecast. However, Acres and Woodward-Clyde Consultants
{WCC) will review the techniques proposed by ISER and will
agree on the approach to be used before the study begins ..
Tl.2 Comment: There is a need for a comprehensive conservation study.
Response: Conservation has been addressed adequately in Tasks 1.01,
1.02 and 1.03. It will be considered sufficiently by ISER
in their load forecasting study.
T1.3 Conment: The study of alternatives to the Susitna Project and the
feasibility study of the project itself should be
separated.
Response: Acres does not recommend that this be done because:
(a) Acres is highly skilled in carrying out such
evaluations of power system expansion, and would
produce the comprehensive and complete study results
which are necessary for optimal development of a
river basin of this size and potential.
(b) Once the load forecast is fixed, the alternatives,
their composition and cost will be subjected to
public scrutiny and will be publicly agreed upon
before the sequence ofa development is analyzed on a
system-cost basis.
{c) The cost to APA of the overall study program \'till be
minimized by avoiding the coordination, liaison and
duplication of effort inherent in a split of
a.lternatives and project feasbil ity studies.
T1.4 Comment: The POS needs consideration of 1 oca lly oriented and decen-
tralized power systems·\·lith emphasis on renewable r€;sources ..
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Response: This need has been addressed adequately in AcresJ POS
under Subtask 1.03, Selection of Alternatives.
Tl.5 Conment: An overqll energy budget should be considered for all
alternatives to the Susitna Project.
Response: It is assumed that this 11 energy budgeting" means the
considera.ti on of the tot a 1 energy consumed in the
development -of each alternative po\'ler source. This is not
norm~lly done in feasibility studies, nor is it required
for FERC license application. Consideration of such a
study will be included in activities to be undertaken
after submission of the FERC license application~
Tl.6 Comment: The POS does not give sufficient attention to system-\vide
costs \~ith and without the Susitna Project.
Response: This concern is a 1 ready adeEJuate ly ·addressed under Subtask
1.04$ Selection of Viable Expansion Sequences.
Task 2 -Surveys and Site Facilities
T2.1 Conment: There is inadequate attention to the logistics of_getting
study teams into the field.
Reponse: Logistical problems are fully recognized: further
clarification of the Acres proposals has been included 1n
the revised POS.
T2.2 Comment: The POS is weak in evaluation of existing data and lacks
specific justification for undertaking new data programs.
(This comment also applies to Tasks 3~ 4 and 5).
Response: With respect to Site Surveys~ the proposed program has
been formulated by Acres after assessment of all the
existing survey information which is available to Acres.
The proposed program is considered the minimum necessary
for FERC license application.
The data collection programs described in Task 3~ 4 and 5
will be tailored to provide the data not already-available
from previous investigators or other resources. Subtasks
3.01 (Review of Ava·ilable Material), 4.01 (Review of
Available Data) and 5.01, (Data Collection and Review)
have been specifically included in the POS to provide a
basis for"development of cost-effective data collection
programs.
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Task 3 ~ Hydrology
T3.1 Comnent: The POS requires more ·emphasis on hydrological aDd
climatological data collection programs.
Response:
T3.2 See T2.2
These programs have been adequately covered under Subtasks
3.01, 3.02 and 3.03.
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Task 4 -Seismic Studies
T4.1 Comment: The POS requires as thorough a seismic study as possible.
Response·: Acres agrees fully that the seismic prob 1 em must be
thoroughly studied. The program described under Task 4 is
to be adequate to eva 1 uate sei smi city and its effect on ()
the project. In addition to this, a sum of $1,000~000 has
been allowed to include independent review and evaluation
by a separate panel of seismic experts.
T4.2 Comnent: The POS should include the delineation of areas sub,ject to
flooding due to seismically induced dam failures.
Response: The s,tudy is inc 1 uded under post-FERC 1 i cense application
studies~
T4.3 See T2.2
Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration
T5.1 See T2.2
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Task 6 -Design C~v~lopment
T6 .. 1 Comment: Task 6 is very ambitious and may not be attainable \'lithin
the proposed time frame.
Response; Acres agrees that consi derab 1 e work in Task 6 must be
completed in a fairly short span of time. However, it is
Acres• opinion that it can be accomplished to the degree
of detai1 ne.cessary for FERC license app1 i cation, provided
the requisite field programs are accomplished. It must be
remembered that the effort will not be aimed at pr_oduci ng
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detailed desi9ns but rather to investigate various
alternative project arrangements to ensure that the
optimal plans are selected. The level of ·detail necessary
at this stage 1s reflected in the man-time .and cost
estimates for this task.
Task 7 -Environmental Studies
T7.1 Comments received by various environmental agencies have been
·discussed at length with those agencies, notably ADF&G and f&WS. The
POS has been appropriately modified to reflect these discussions.
Task 8 -Transmission
TS.l Comment: Insufficient attention has been focused on the
transmission system and its environmental impacts.
Response: It is considered that the POS as currently proposed is
adequate to cover transmission aspects prior to FERC
license submission. Consideration will be given to any
add it i anal en vi ronmenta 1 studies \'tarranted during the
period following submission of the FERC license
application. APA has also initiated other studies in
connection with the intertie.
Task 10 -Licensing
No comments.
Task 11 -Financing
No comments.
Task 12 -Public Participation
T12.1 Corrment: There is a need for public involvement before the POS is
finalized.
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Response: This first reprint of the POS is being made available for
pub 1 i c scrutiny and comnent. Furthermore, the proposed
POS includes a public meeting early in the program
{February 1980) wherein public response to the POS can be
assessed. The second reprint of the POS will be
appropriately modified and issued subsequent to t~at
meeting.
T12.2 Cornnent: There is a need for an independent public involvement
program.
· Response: The public participation program proposed by APA and Acres
·is substantial and sufficiently visible. ·An independent.
public program is not considered necessary. The proposed
POS provides for three public..rneetings and eight workshops
over the 30-month study period. The pub 1 i c and a 11
interested state agencies will have ample opportunity to
scrutinize the study activities. Acres considers that
adequate pub 1 i c parti ci pat ion can be generated by such
frequent exchanges between the study team and the pub 1 i c,
and additional independent action is not necessary.
T12.3 Comment: There is a need to demonstrate how publ1c input is
affecting the plan of study as well as future decisions.
Response: Subtask 12.05 (Prepare and Maintain Action List) has been
devised to implement this requirement. Maintenance of the
Action List will provide a positive system for ensuring
all issues are addressed) to permit up-to-date status
reports on progress and procedures for addressing issues;
and to ensure that a 11 necessary actions arising from the
public participation program are assigned by name to team
members. Acres consider that this 11 action 1ist11 scheme
will provide an efficient vehicle for demonstrating to the
public how their input is affecting the study outcome.
T12.4 Comment: The POS does not consider an adequate degree of
coordination \'lith the Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
Response: Acres intends to coordinate the POS with Mr. L. H.
Kimball~ Director of the Division of Community Planning.,
and with the t·1atanuska-Susitna Borough.
Tl2.5 Corrment: The time-frame. of the study is too short for public
discussion and input on alternatives to the Susitna
project.
Response: As stated above., the proposed POS includes three public
meetings and eight \'/orkshops over the 30-month study
period. Acres considers that there is ample opportunity
for public corrrnent on the study.
With regard to pub1 i c comment on the a l.ternat i ves to the
Susitna Project, either Workshops 2 or 3 in May and August
1980 vmuld be appropriate times for public opinions to be
voiced •
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Task 13 -Administration
Tl3 •. 1 Comnent~ There are considerable management problems inherent in
coordinating as many study participants as are inc 1 uded in
Acres POS.
Response: Acres acknowledges that considerable effort must be
directed towards coordination of the many partL~; pants
involved in the study. However, Acres has had much
experience in rna nagement of such efforts and is 'fully
confident of its capability to sucGessfully complete the
study objectives. Perhaps a con vi nci ng demonstr&t ion of
Acres strength in this coordinating function is the
development of the study proposal for the Susitna Project,
wherein the inputs of seven different firms \'Jere combined
into a singl~ comprehensive plan of action •
General Comments on the POS
G.l
G.2
G.3
Comment: The 30-month time frame of the. study is too short and
should provide a mechanism for the review, redirection and
continuation of selected projects post-FERC license
app 1 icat ion.
Reponse: As requested by APA, Acres has prepared a plan of study
leading up to the FERC license application, and has
outlined the work that would be involved subsequent to
that application. If the .project is determined to be
feasible, it is assumed that the appropriate studies would
be continued and supported by APA beyond the proposed
initial 30-month program.
Comnent: Interagency coordinating mechanisms need to be refined
with clear delineation of how information from the various
disciplines will be synthesized.
Response: The POS will be amplified to reflect the many interagency
coordination mechanisms which will utilized during the
studies.
Comment: There is a need for a formal interagency review
corronittee.
Response: The various agencies involved will be consulted on this
matter during the initial stages of the study. It is
believed that the communication mechanisms currently
envisaged will be adequate to satisfy this conment.
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G.4
B.5
G.6
G.7
Gonment: It is advisable to separate the planning and design
responsibilities •
Response: A1 though there is no current commitment not to separate
these activities~ to do so will not be cost effectivee
There is ample opportunity within the proposed POS for
public scrutiny of the objectivity and cost-effectiveness
of the study.
Gonment: There· is a need to ta i 1 or the POS to the needs of the
decision maker.
Response: All information developed in the study will be documented
in the fonn of summary and comprehensive reports which
wi 11 be in the most appropriate form for efficient use by
decision makers e ...
Comment: There must be an acknowledgement of the state liability
program.
Reponse~. This will be appropriately dealt with during the study.
Comment: The overall program is very ambitious and may not be
completed in the proposed time frame.
Response: It is Acres~ opinion that while the study will require a
great dea1 of hard work, provided unforeseen circumstances
do not arise, the program can be accomplished in the
proposed time frame.
2Q2 -Verbal Comments
Acres has been provided the transcripts of the hearing on September 28~
1979~ on the Susitna Feasibility Study, so that all 'criticisms of Acres•
proposal may be considered in arriving at a final version of the POS {see
Table 1 .. 2). Several of these comments have been already addressed in
Section 2.1 above. The remainder are summarized and discussed belO\'/. It
should be noted that the dialogue of many of the contributors at the hearing
has been incompletely documented due to background noise, poor voice
recording, etc. There may, therefor·e, be some omissions or
misunderstandings ..
Task 1 -Pm-Jer Studies
Tl.7 Comment: A very detailed, comprehensive study of alternatives is
necessary.
Reponse: The 1 eve 1 of effort pro posed by Acres for the study of
alternatives is considered adequate to confinn that the
Susitna development ir. indeed the most desirable option.
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Tl.8 Comment: Acr-es' POS is inadequate in terms of assessing
alternatives to the Susitna development.
Reponse: The level of effort for ·the study of alternatives is
considered adequate to confi nn conc1 usively vthether or not
the Susitna development should be pursued to supply the
future growth in demand for e1 ectricity in Alaska.
Task 2 -Surveys and Site Facilities
T2.3 Comment:. The availability of the "Highlander Lodgeu located some
five mi~es from the Devil Canyon site should be considered
in providing camps for the fieid pt"ograms. -
Reponse: Use of existing camp facilities will be considered. All
such facilities which are available and shown to be a cost
effective alternative will be utilized to the fullest
extent possible.
Task 3 -Hydrology "
T3. 3 Corrunent: Full advantage should· be taken of 'the University of
Alaska's k~owledge of river ice conditionsQ
Response: Acres intends to retain experts from the University of
Alaska in assessing the river ice problems on the
Susitna.
Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration
T5.2 Corrrnent: There is· a concern on the competence of R & r·1 Consultants
Inc. for a job of this magnitude"
Reponse: This comment is apparently based on Anchorage ~1unici pal
Light and Po\"Jer•s experience with R & rvt on a recent job.
It is Acres • understanding that the cost overrun on this
job was due to circumstances beyond R & M's control.
Task 6 -Design Development
T6.2 Comment: There is a concern that the tunnel scheme proposed by
Acres is not feasible.
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Reponse: This may be true~ At this point in time, the tunnel
concept is an unproven scheme which must be studied in
more detai1 to determine its economic and technical
feasibility~
Task 7 -Environmental Studies
T7.2 Comment: There should be a study of the possible change in climate
due to the formation of reservoirs on the Susitna Ri vert
Reponse: Although not specifically highlighted in Acres' POS, this
impact on the region's climate will be addressed in
Subtask 7.03, Evaluation of Alternatives.
T7.3 Comment: There is a concern on the objectivity of the Alaska· .
Department of Fish and Game in their participat~on in the
study.
Reponse: ADF&G in their role as a state agency for monitoring and
controlling environmental disturbances are obviously the
best qua 1 i fi ed and equipped agency for gathering of
baseline data for the areas affected by the project. APA
has, therefore, contracted with ADF&G to undertake this
work. Any other involvement by ADF&G \'till be restricted
to their customary role of review and approval of
environmental assessments, proposals for mitigating
measures, and permit applications.
Task 8 -Transmission
T8. 2 Comment: There is a need for a study on the risk of transmission
1 i ne outage.
Reponse: This will be adequately addressed in Subtasks 8.02,
Electric System Studies, and 8.04, Tower, Hardware and
Conductor Studies.
General Comments
G.8 Cornnent: The time frame for the study is too short ..
Reponse: If the Susitna project is proven to be economically
feasible, the field data collection program will continue
after the 30-month period presently p 1 anned.
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G .. 9 Colllllent: The Pos•s submitted by all three consultants should be
combined into a single comprehensive plan.
Response: The more desirable aspects of the HARZA and IECO
proposals, where appropriate, have been reviewed and ta!<en
into account in the revised POS (see Sections 3 and 4).
G.lO Comnent: A comprehensive field program is needed.
Reponse: The data collection programs outlined in Tasks 2, 3, 5 and
7 are considered sufficiently comprehensive at this stage
of the project evaluation.
G.ll Comment: There should be an external review of the basic
assumptions, methodologies and ·final results of the
Susitna Study ..
Reponse: Acres agrees that external review of the study is
necessary. To this end, three external mechanisms are
planned:
G.l2 Co11111ent:
(i) The proposed external review panel of
world-renowned experts will provide a necessary
check on the basic assumptions, methodologies and
study results.
(ii} The public participation program will give the
public the apport unity to comment on and influence
the study ..
{iii) The study of the projected load gro\'lth of Alaska
\'/ill be given to the Institute of Social and
Economic Research as an external consultant.
The feasibility study should be postponed until the
alternatives to Susitna are fully assessedo
Reponse: Indications to date are that the Susitna development is
economically attractive and will be needed at an earl.y
date to satisfy the electrical load gro\'lth of Alaska •. To
postpone the feasibility study may result in the ultimate
delay of the project at the cost-of having to develop more
expensive alternatives in the interim, or even of
incurring short-term pov1er shortages relative to the small
potential savings involved. If the feasibility of the
Project can be established, then it is desirable to obtain
the FERC license with the-minimum of delay. Even so, the
proposed program has been devised to minimize expenditures
·prior to· completion of alternatives studies while still
accomplishing licensing of the project at the earliest
possib 1 e date.
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3 -ASSESSHENT OF HARZA PROPOSAL
The proposal submitted by Harza Consultants to APA has been assessed with
the intention of extracting those portions which could be used to improve
the Acres plan ..
In general, the Harza plan of study is similar to that of Acres. Many of
the apparent differences are a resu 1 t of different emphasis in the
presentation of the plans of study. It is Acres' opinion that all major
tasks proposed by Harza are already included in the Acres POS!) \-'Jhere they
are organized ~~d scheduled in a comparable or more comprehensive manner.
Specific differences in the proposals are discussed belO\'/.
3 .. 2 -Specific Differences in the Proposals
{a) Harza proposed to engage an Alaskan resident with a thorough background
of Alaskan attitudes, customs~ etc. as the manager of their "Public
Information and Participation Program".
Acres agrees with this approach~ and intends to do the same, although
it was not specificall.y stated in the original proposal ..
{b) Harza recorrmends the formation of a "Technical Advisory Corrunittee 11
composed of representatives of interested groups and agencies for a
"two-way conmunication between the project planners and interested
state and federal agenciesu. The Acres POS is considered to provide
for these communications through the proposed revievt panels and public
participation program.
(c) Harza's proposed mapping of the Susitna River appears to be more
comprehensive and detailed than that of.Acres.
Acres research has shown that a consi derab 1 e amount of survey data is
already available. Aerial photography and subsequent mapping is very
expensive, and wi 11 consequently be kept to the mini mum required for
evaluating project alternatives. Acres considers that the·ir mapping
program is adequate to augment the existing data env·isaged. If
specific development schemes prove to be attractive in"this feasibility
study~ more detailed mapping in the post-FERG license period may be
necessary.
(d) Harza proposes to make a comprehensive inventory of existing generating
facilities and transmission lines.
Although this is not listed as a specific item in Acres POS, it was
intended to form part of the groundwork of Subtask 1.04, Selection of
Vtable Expansion Sequences, and has been included in the cost estimate
of that item.
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(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)
( i)
In their proposal, Harza emphasizes their intention of developing a
concept of staged development of the Susitna Riv,er. They describe six
major scheme~ which will be investigated thoroughly.
. The basis of the Acres POS is essentially that the substantial amount
of competent work which has already been done by USBR and the Corps of
Engineers should at this point be assumed to be corr.ect and that the
Corps' most recently proposed scheme is near-optimal. Acres • detai 1 ed
proposals were, therefore, developed on the basis of this previous work
and the POS wi 11 refine and bui 1 d upon it rather than start afresh.
However, in the event that the Acres study of alternatives (Subtask
6.03) indicates that other development schemes are more desirable,
Acres' POS will have to be modified to include a more thorough search
and refinement of the optimal plan.
. ~ Harza's POS 1ncludes the use of the "WQRRS" computer model developed by
the Corps of Engineers to analyze the water quality in the reservoir(s) and the Susitna River.
It is Acres• opinion that use of this model will not produce meaningful
results without extensive field data for its calibration. Therefore,
although some analytical modeling of the thermal stratification in the
reservoir is planned in the pre-FERC license application period~
refined mode 1 i ng of the water qua 1 ity has been reserved for the
post-FERC license application period when adequate basic data will
begin to become available.
Harza proposes to study 11 Riparian Habitats... The objective of this
will be to characterize the interrelationships between the maintenance
of willow/moose fiabitat in the downstream flood plain and seasonal
flooding characteristics.
The current revisions to the POS have been developed in combination
•nith ADF&G and are, therefore, considered to be adequately responsive
to these aspects.
Harz a proposes ·a "Recreation Resources Study .. to inventory and evaluate t~e recreation resources within the Susitna River Basin for the purpose
of assessing the impacts that the project might have on them. ·
~lthough it is not specifically discussed in the Ac~s proposal, it is
1ntended that such a study would form the neces~3~ groundwork for
Subtask 7.08_, Analysis of Recreation Development~ The estimated cost
of this Subtask has been included for this work.
Harz a proposes to assess the potential impact of project alternatives
on the aesthetic and visual resources, and to identify measures to
ensure that project works blend with the· surrounding environment. TvJo
computer programs developed by HARZA for this purpose will be used to
evaluate the visual impacts.
The environmental impact assessments of the proposed development,
including aesthetic and visual resources, will be achieved by competent
experts in a conventional manner under the Acres POS.
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(j) Harza proposes to develop a 11 Resources Inventoryn and a "Project Data Management Program''.
Although this approach to tabulation of project data has not been
proposed specifically in Acres • POS, it is intended that a comparable,
methodical cataloging of such data will be carried out as necessary for
the complete documentation of study results ..
(k) Harza proposes a Project Sponsor who· would maintain periodic liaison
with APA and provide a communications channel to Harza management for
evaluation of the performance of the project team as a whole.
Although not originally proposed by Acres as a formal part of the
project team structure, such a communications channel will be made
available for APA to the senior management of Acres.
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4 -ASSESSMENT OF IECO PROPOSAL . .
4.1 -General
IECO's proposet:i POS has been reviewed in detail. Each task outlined by IECO
has been -critically and objectively assessed and compared with those
previously formulated by Acres. In general, the two POS's are quite
similar, although in many areas Acres' plan appears to be more comprehensive
and complete.. Several Tasks apparently considered necessary by IECO have
not been detailed specifically in Acres' proposal. These Tasks are discussed below.
4.2 -Task C-4-9 -Aquatic Resources-Upper Cook Inlet Estuarl
In this task, IECO proposed to develop a mathematical model of the Cook
Inlet and to use it to assess the potential impact from upstream .
developmente Although-Acres intends to assess the impact on the estuary, it
wi 11 be done not by mathemat i ca 1 mode 1 but by more re 1 i ab 1 e and proven
empirical methods. It is Acres • opinion that at this early stage of the project~ without adequate basic data, the use of such a sophisticated tool
would not provide meaningful results~
4.3 -Task C-4-17 -Air Quality and Noise
As part of this Task, IECO proposes to evaluate measures to minimize
potential impacts to air quality and noise that could occur during the construction of a Susitna project.
Although Acres 1 POS includes an evaluation of the impact of alternative
power sources (thermal plants in particu1ar) on air quality, this has not
been specifically addressed with respect to construction of hydroelectric
projects on the Susitna. Such impacts, considered minimal at this time$
will be assessed in Task 7, Environmental Studies.
4.4 -Task C-4-21 -Public Safetx
The purpose of this task will be to describe any impacts resulting from
accidents and natural catastrophes which might occur, and provide an
analysis of the capabi 1 ity of the area to absorb predicted impacts.
Although such a \'lork i.tem has not been specifically included in Acres' POS
31 it is expected that such impacts \··IOUld have to be described for public
meetings and workshops, and it is considered that suffi~ient funds are
included in Task 12, Public Particiption, to cover this.
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4/5 -:-C-4-2~2 -Visual Resources
IECO proposes a separate. task at a considerable cost ($70,000} to:
-Determine the significant visual effects of the Watana and Devil Canyon
structures.
-Simulate the appearance of the structures and suggest mitigation measures
for undersi rabl e visual impacts.
.-istablish criteria·for scenic quality which provides a basis for
comparative evaluation of proposed project features and alternative energy
· sources.
Although such an item has not been specifically included in Acres' POS it is
intended that.visual impacts of the projects wil-l be satisfactorily
evaluated in Task 7, Environmental Studies.
4.6 -0;1-1 -Develop Comprehensive Watershed Model
· Acres does not consider that development of such a model will be necessary
during pre-license application studies. Acres proposes to refine the work
already conducted by the u.s. Army Corps of Engineers with the SSARR
watershed mode 1., and thus avoid the heavy cost of developing and calibrating
a new model.
4.7 -D-4-2 -Develop Specific ~1odels for Arctic Conditions,
Q ... 4-3 -Calibrate and Verify Models
Acres does not consider that this wi 11 be necessary. Acres ~1i 11 draw
primarily from .. off-the-shelf11 models which have already been developed on
Acres' previous jobs where Arctic conditions have been a .problem. Some work
may be ·necessary, however, to calibrate these models to the specific
conditions encountered in the Susitna Basin.
4.8 -D-5-4 -Glacial Water Balance,
E-5-3 -~1ass Balance and Dynamic Behavior of Glaciers
IECO proposes to 1 aunch a detai 1 ed assessment (at a cost of $158, 000) of the
glaciers in the Susitna Basin.
Although Acres considers that some evaulation of the glaciers is necessary
(as included in Subtask 3.04 (vi)), it \IIOUld be more .appropriate to have a
moder.ate investigative effort at this early stage. If more comprehensive
study appears warranted, it can be planned and implemented after submission
of the FERC license application.
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4.9 -E-3-2 -Shear Wave Hammer Testing of the Watana and Devil Canyon Sites
.,~This is not considered necessary during pre-licensing submission activities.
The proposed Acres program for seismic and geotechnical exploration is
adequate.
4 .. 10 -E-8-4 -Conduct Hass Concrete Tests
IECO proposes to expend some $40,000 on conducting laboratory tests to
develop a mass concrete design mix and to check the suitability of avialable
materials to obtain the desired concrete mix.
Acres considers that such effort should be reserved only for the later
design stage of the project. For the feasibility study, Acres will draw on
their extensive experience with concrete mixes for northern construction to
evaluate the appropriate composition.
4.11 -D-6-6 -Downstream Hazards from Dam Failure
In this task, IECO plans to evaluate downstream hazards of dam failure
because of a catastrophic event.
Evaluation of downstream hazards is an important activity, but is best
undertaken after submission of the license application, when definitive
schemes of the Susitna project have been developed.
4.12 -Hydrolog~
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IECO has included $1.8 million for hydrologic studies!! compared to $1.6
million for Acres. This difference is mostly due to IECO's estimate of
$340,000 for developing sophisticated mathematical models v1hich Acres
believes to be unnecessary at this time.
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·SECTION A5 -DETAILED ACTIVIJY DESCRIPTIONS
A.5.1 -Introduction
As discussed in Se~tion A2 it is propo:aed to achieve the objectives of the
Susi tna Plan of Study by undertaking a program of work divided into the following 13 tasks:
Task 1 .. Power Studies
Task 2 -Surveys and Site Facilities
Task 3 -Hydrology
Task 4 -Seismic Studies
Task 5 -Geotechnical Explorati-on
Task 6 -Design Development
Task 7 -Environmental Studies
Task 8 -Transmission
Task 9 -Construction Cost Estimates and Schedules
Task 10 -ltcensing
Task 11 -Marketing and Financing
Task 12 -Public Participation
Task 13 -Admi ni strati on
Within each of these tasks~ a series of subtasks has been identified as
shown on the Master Schedules$ Plates A7.1 and A7.2. Plate A2.1 is an
overall summary schedule for the entire Plan of Study. More detailed
schedules and logic diagrams for some specific areas of the study appea~
under individual subtask description in this section of the POS. In th~
following subsections the Scope Statements for Tasks and Subtasks are
presented and discussed8 A complete listing of all subtasks with·
associated costs is presented in Section A3 -Budget Summaries.
Throughout this section of the proposal, l"e,7<:rence will be found to .. Design
Transmittal S
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-. This tenn is used by Acres to describe a fonnal i zed docu-
ment prepared to present the engineerls or designer's response in
defi rii ti ve terms a·s to hm-1 he interprets a statement of work and how he
intends to proceed with the detailed engineering. The "Level of Efforta
shm·m for each subtask relates to the completion of that task as part of
the combined effort of all participants.
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A.5.2 -TASK 1: POWER STUDIES
(i) Task Objectiv~
To determine the need for power in the Alaska Railbelt Region, to
develop for~casts for electric load growth in the area, to consider
viable alternatives for meeting· such load growth, to develop and
rank a series of feasible, optimum expansion scenarios and finally
to determine the environmental impacts of the selected optimum scenarios.
(ii) Task Outpu!
The priiJiary output of Task 1 will be a report dealing with the
selection and ranking of optimum system expansion scenarios for the
Alaska Railbelt Region. The final version of this report will be
submitted for review and approval by Alaska Power Authority on or
about Week 48 of the Study. Preliminary findings of the study will
be discussed with Alaska Power Authority on or ·about Week 30 of the
Study. Su~h a discussion will center on whether or not work on the
Susitna Development should continue or whether ano_ther., possibly
more viable alternative should be examined. Design transmittals
outlining intermediate stages of the po\'ler studies \1ill also be
issued as indicated on the logic diagram., Plate Tl.l~
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 1.01 -Review of the ISER Work Plan and Methodologies
Subtask 1.02 -Forecasting Peak Lciad Demand
Subtask 1.03 -Identification of Alternatives
Subtask 1.04 -Selection of Viable Expansion Sequences
Subtask 1.05 -Expansion Sequence Impact Assessments
Sub task 1. 06 -Power A1 ternati v.es Study Report
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
The primary purpose of Task 1 as discussed in Section (i"i) above is
the establishment and documentation of appropriate load forecasts
for the A 1 ask a Ra i 1 be 1 t area and the deve 1 o pment of optimum system
expansion sequence scenarios to meet this forecast. The evaluation
of these factors for the Railbelt Region and the relationship and
scheduling of Task 1 to the remaining twelve tasks of the overall
Plan of Study are illustrated in the master schedule., Plate A7.1.
This portion of the study will be undertaken in essentially three
parts. The initial phase will include evaluation of the various
projected energy consumption scenarios deve 1 oped by independent
study teams. From these forecasts., the Acres team will develop
ki 1 owatt 1 oad forecasts appropriate for the 1 ow, medi urn, and high
growth rate scenarios. The second portion of Task 1 wi 11 de a 1 \'lith
the development of ·optimum mixes and sequences of feasible
alternative sources for meeting future power demands. These miX€s
\1il1 be developed with and without the Susitna Project, which at
this stage will be assumed for study purposes to be that developed
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by the Corps of Engineers. The third section of the study will deal
with the preliminary comparative environmental and socioeconomic
impacts of the developed optimum mixes on the Railbelt Region.
In order to meet the overall objectives of the Plan of Study as
stated in Section A2 above, other activities of the program wi11
proceed in parallel with Task 1. These will essentially involve
Task 2 -Surveys and Site Fac il iti es, TQsk 3 -Hydrology, Task 4 -
Seismic Studies and Task 5 -Geotechnical Exp1oration. For
logistical reasons, these activities will have been initiated on the
assumption that the Susitna Project will be that which proves to be
the optimum development for Alaska .Power Authority. However, the
Task 1 power studies may determine otherwise. Under such
circumstances, the ongoing studies would be halted pending
discuss ions with Alaska Power Authority to determine the future.
course of action most appropriate. On the other hand, should Task 1
studies confinn the earlier studies undertaken by the Corps of
Engineers and ·others that the Su~itna Project~ with dams at Watana
and Devil Canyon is the appropriate means of meeting future load
grov1th in the Railbelt area, tfi~e-study will continue as planned ..
(v) Concurrent Studies by Others
Concurrent with work undertak-en by the Institute of Social and
Economic Research (ISER) and by the Acres team, a number of studies
bearing on Task 1 efforts will be accomplished by others. A
full-time pov1er system study representative from the Acres team \'li 11
be stationed in Alaska during the first year of the v10rk and he \'li 11
closely monitor these-concurrent activities as a portion of his
total duties. Some particular efforts which should enhance the
quality of Task 1 v10rk include:
(1) A Power Alternative Study coordinated by the Alaska House Po\>ler
Alternatives Committee is now in progress. Specific Study
contracts include:
(a) Power Market Demand Projections--by the University of (j
Alaska Institute for Social and Economic Research.
The section of the study is being done in cooperation \-rith
the Power Authority.. They have shared in the design of the
contr·act, and will participate in the funding. This
portion of the study will also serve as the power market
demand projectidn for the Susitna Phase I of Study (see
Subtask 1.01).
The particulars of the scope of work include methodological
review~ data collection and updating, economic projections,
assessment of interfuel substituti:on possibf1 ities,
electricity use projections, and an assessment of possi-
b~ilities) electricity use projections, and an assessment of
the probabilities of the various scenarios and projections.,.
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The institute \vill ho1d a workshop in December to review
the assumptions behind the economic projections, and will
cooperate with a variety of other committee consultants.
{b) Review of the ISER Demand Work
Dr. Bradford Tuck, an economist with the Uni-versity of
Alaska School of Business, _and Energy Probe, of Toronto~
will separately analyze and criticize past demand projec-
tions as well as the work ISER is undertaking for the
committee.
{c) Potential of Conservation and Renewable Energy
(d)
{e)
The Alaska Center for Policy Studies \'/ill manage the vari-
ous portions of this section of the study. The work will
include an analysis of the end uses of energy in the Rail-
belt area, a determination of the potential for energy
conservation and the use of renewable energy sources~ a
discussion of the social, economic and political measures
necessary to achieve the conservation and renewable energy
potential, and work on conservation legislation for the
1980 session {HB 364). A variety of subcontractors wiTl
carry out the specific tasks.,
Natural Gas
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This portion of the study will address institutional limit-
ations on the future use of natural gas for power genera-
tion, the future price and availability of gas~ the effici-
ency of gas-fired generation facilities, and the potential
for the use of natural gas in direct consumer applications.
A proposal by economist Greg Erickson is pending.
Overvie\'1
This section \vould address the historical background of the
supply of electric power in the railbelt, survey the basic
policy questions at stake in the Susitna decision, deline-
ate financing questions and address the decision-making
structure for Susitna and other power alternatives.. A
proposal by economist Arl on Tussig is pending.
(f) Sociocultural Impacts
This section would investigate the effect of the construc-
tion of the Susitna dam on both the local area and Alaska,
·and relate those effects to both a historical and a norma-
tive context. A proposal by the Arctic Environmental and
Data Center of the University of Alaska is pending ..
(g) Other Sections of the Study
Additional work is contemplated in the areas of coal-fir~:d
generation. A review -Of th-e adequacy of Phase I study of
enyironmental impacts is a1 so contemplated.
/ . ...
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(2)
(3)
(4)
Assessments of hydroelectric and other electric generation
potential throughout the State and particularly in or near the
Railbelt Area, to be undertaken by others from time to time
under contract to APA. ~
Ongoin.g work by the Alaska District, U .. S. Army Corps of
Engineers, on the Bradley Lake Project and other hydroelectric
studies.
Studies undertaken for the A1 aska Pow.er Administration, incl ud-
ing in particular a study of wind generation potential in the
Cook Inlet Region.
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Subtask 1.01 -Review of the ISER l~ork Plan and Methodologies
{a) Objective
Critically review the work plan and the methodologies developed by the
University of Alaska,s Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
for forecast; ng energy dem_and.s_.
Review and comment upon those written documents prepared by ISER as a
part of its study. These documents will include, but will not be
limited to, those documents listed under section {b) of this Subtask •
Reach a thorough understanding of the assumptions used by ISER in its
work ..
Exchange information with ISER regarding data needed by the Acres team in its subsequent work.
Ensure adequate data output by the ISER through coordination efforts.
(b) Approach
ISER is under contract with the State of Alaska • s Legi sl ati ve Affairs
Agency to deve 1 op proJections of the pass i b 1 e future energy consumption
trends for the Railbelt Region. As a part of this work, it is respon-
sible for developing the methodologies used for the projection; for the
collection of data used in its models; for producing projections
detailing the energy consumption trends for six categories of consumers
in three distinctly different areas of the Railbelt. The six catego-
ries of consumers for which individual growth projections will be made are:
a. Residential
b. Cornnerci al
c. Non self-supplied industrial
d. Self-supplied industrial
em Potential industrial
f. Users who cannot be supplied by the urban power grids.
The three geographical areas \vhich will be. studied individually are:
a. The Anchorage-Cook Inlet area which forms the south\'lestern
section of the Railbelt Region. This area \vill include the
Kenai Peninsula.
b. The Fairbanks-Tanana Valley area, lying to the north.
c. The Glenallen-Valdez area which is the southeastern area under
study. ·
These three study regions are relatively distinct areas of load concen-
tration.
The approach taken by the ISER, as broadly described in its contract
with the Alaska Legislative Affairs Agency, and as further defined in
its
11
Detailed Work Pla.n 11 dated November 14, 1979, consists of four
major areas of effort:
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1. -A review of available e\:-onometric forcasting methods and
models.. The most app.:irently suitable model will be selected
for further use in LS2R \'tork. A written report will be
produced describing the advantages and disadvantages of the
methods which were studied.
2. A review of the available electrical energy consumption
forecasting methods. The most apparently suitable m?thod will
be selected for further use in ISER work. A written report
will document the advantages and disadvantages of the methods
which were studied. ·
3. Data heeded for implementation of the forecasts of 1 and 2
above will be collected and analyzed to determine its
limitations and potential uses. A written report will
describe the data collection and the -uses to which it \vill be
put in future work ..
4.-Incorporation of all appropriate data into the econometric and
electric energy use forecasting models.. These models will
then be used to predict electrical energy consumption through
the year 2005.. Inputs to the models will be varied to produce
values of energy consumption growth at the most likely level,
the highest probable level, and the lowest probable 1evelo
As a general· rule, the scenario method irnpl ies a consistent description of a
system's evolution by fixing, through exogenous assumptions, the evolution
of the scenario components: those variables characteristic of the system.
The components selected by the ISER as well as the assumptions upon which
the decisions to select those components lie will be critically reviewed.
Finally" the electricity use projection methodology developed by ISER and
the steps involved in its use, namely model design, regression equation, and
forecasting, will be examined.
Model design involves the selection of the independent variables which
affect model output and the formulation of the mathematical relations
between those var·l w~ lese
Estimation of the form taken by the regression equation involves the use of
historical data. Limitations in the data may, in snme cases, preclude the
use of otherwise relevant variables.. Availability of data will be studied.
A statistical analysis of the model's .accuracy and validity will be
undertaken.
Ttre responsibility for incorporation of the wee recommendat·ions, as well as
the validity of the model and the accuracy of its projections, will be that
of ISER.
(c) Discussion
It is the responsi bf1 ity of the Acres team to carefu.,lly evaluate the
steps undertaken by the ISER in developing its erlergy consumption
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projections. Undoubtedly, to successfully accomplish subsequent Task 1
work, it is imperative that the Acres team have a thorough
understanding of, and a high degree of confidence, in the wor~ of ISER.
This can come only by close cooperation between members of ACRES team
and those involved in the ISER work.
ISER submitted a detailed work p1 an to the Al ask. a Po\'ler Authority (APA)
dated November 14, 1979. This work plan will be reviewed and
.modifications wilT be suggested to ISER if it is deemed appropriate.
The energy and econornetri c mode 1 ing methodologies and the development
scenarios propo~ed by ISER will be reviewed for the validity of their
assumptions.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 1 through 12
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Subtask 1.0_2 .... Forecasting Peak Load Deman£
{a) Objective
Derive scenarios describing a reasonab 1 e range of load (kl~) and 1 oad
duration curve forecasts for the system through the year 2010. Prepare
data in a form adequate for incorporation in the po\'ler system model to
be d~veloped in Subtask 1.04~
(b) Approach
Based on projections of energy (kWh) consumption as developed by ISER
(see Subtask 1.01)~ annual power (kW) demands for each of the three
defined Railbelt Regions will be forecast through year 2010. The
forecasts will include both peak load levels and the shape of the load
demand over time in the form of load duration curves. To ensure that
the maximum accuracy of the system model is realized, load duration
curves will be developed for both typical weekend and midweek days.
These data will be produced separately for each of the three geographic
areas of the study region and for each of the six consumer groups
within each of those regions.
(c) Discussion
As noted in Subtask 1.01, ISER will prepare projections of future
energy consumption in the Railbelt area. ISER will not predict peak
power demands (kW) or load duration curves.
It shall be the responsibility of wee, under the supervision of Acres,
to produce these data in a manner which is consistent v1ith the
economic, social, political and technical assumptions made by the ISER
when developing their energy consumption forecasts.
It is intended that the forecasts to be developed by HCC satisfy the
dual purpose of filling out ISER data into a total picture of
ele:trical demand for the study period and of providing detailed data
to S~btask 1.04 for direct utilization in the generation planning
model. This required data will include consideration of load shapes on
a monthly basis as well as typical daily load shapes for week-day and
weekend occurrences.
Load duration curves describe the percentage of time that a power
system operates at any fraction of its full power level. Load duration
curves can be developed on an annual, seasonal, monthly or even a daily
basis. A load duration curve can be interpreted to yield the average
pO\t~er level for the time period described by the curve. The
average-to-peak ratio is kno\'/n as the load factor of the system.
Sev~ral methods can be used to produce peak load (kW) forecasts once
energy (kWh) consumption predictions have been made. The basic
procedure is to divide the energy consumption (kWh) of a given time
period by the product of that period's length (in hours) and -its load
factor., to obtain power (kW).
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For the above discussion, it is evident that a crucial point in produc-
ing credible load forecasts is the development of the load duration
curves •. The available methods and the degree to which they will be
applied to the system under study, will be reviewed to determine their
suitability to the problem at hand.
(d) Output ,
Since the subsequent Task 1 work is dependent upon the efforts of this
Subtask, it is imperative that the data produced by this work is a~cu
r.ate, complete and in a readily usable form. Discussions of a11
methods used and assumptions made must be produced in report form to
support the power and load duration data.
For use in the system modeling work of Subtask 1.04, the follot--ling data
are required:
a. Month-to-annual peak load ratios for full 12 month period.
b. For typical weekend and midweek days!\ hourly-to-monthly 1 oad
ratios, arranged in descending order, month to month.
c. Per unit peak load ratios associated with the 0~ 20~ 40 and
100 percent_ points on the monthly load duration curve month by
month.
d. Peak power level, annual.
e. The year-to-year variations of the quantities a -d, above~
To remain consistent with earlier \'lark, data outputs \'1111 be broken
down along the same geographical and consumer lines as the energy
predictions of the ISER.
(e)_, Schedule
Weeks 8 through 26
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Subtask 1.03 -Identification of Power Alternatives
(a) .QPjective
IdeHtify and select fbr evaluation purposes alternative power sources
a1pr'opriate for inclusion in future Alaska Railbelt Region load-growth
stenarios.
(b) Approach
This subtask will be subdivided into two further work packages:
-Non-hydro alternatives
-Hydro and tidal alternatives
These packages will be undertaken concurrent]~' non-hydro alternatives
being developed by Woodward-Clyde Consulj.ant~s~ Anchorage and hydro and
tidal alternatives by Acres PmericanY'fach package will include appro-
priate analyses to identify which (if any) energy sources would be
viable alternatives to the Susitna Project. The evaluation will
include an initial review of the l\'1arch 1978 *'Analysis of Future
Requirements and Supply Alternatives for the Railbelt Region" published
by Battelle Laboratories.
In deciding if a particular system or group of systems could be a
viable alternative, five basic factors must be considered:
-Anticipated demand (location aDd amount) that the Susitna Project
must supply, a
-The maximum amount of power (or reduction in demand for power) that
could be supplied to the Alaska Rail belt Region by each alternative,
-The cost per unit of electricity supplied by each alternative,
-Construction and licensing schedule of each alternative,
... The non-cost impact of implementing each alternative.
The intent will be to examine the widest possible range of alternatives
while relying, as much as possible, on published data.
(c) · Non-hydro Alternatives
The no11-hydro alternatives to be examined include utraditiona1" energy
sources such as coal or gas-fired steam turbines, combustion turbines
(including combined cycle design), diesel electric systems and nuclear
power plants (ho\..zever, it is most unlikely that the nuclear alternative
\'lfll receive serious consideration in Alaska). Studies undertaken to
·date for the Railbelt Region suggest that development of the Be1 uga and
Nenana coal fields are likely to prove to be the largest viable alter-
native resources. Published data already developed by Woodward-Clyde
Consultants on behalf of the Golden Va11ey Electric Association will be
used in the proposed study. 11 Non-tr-aditiona1 11 alternatives \'li11
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include solar generation, wind bi.omass, geotherma] ,_and energy from
wood and municipal waste. The Alaska Power Administration is presently
pursuing a study of the potential offered by wind generation in the
Cook Inlet Region. The results of this study wi 11 be utili zed in the
evaluati·:ln of non-hydro alternatives. In addition, 0 non-structural 11
alternatives will be considered including time of day pricing, demand
controls or more efficient use of existing system resources.
Consideration will also be given to the impact of possible changes in
government policy with regard ·to uses of Alaskan natural gas, the
possible "non-action" alternative and the construction of an Anchorage-
Fairbanks transmission intertie alone, in lieu of the project.
(d) Hydro and Tidal Alternatives
The hydro alternative will not necessarily involve a single conven-
tional hydro project and may consist of a group of smaller hydro
projects with, for instance, a gas-turbine installation to provide firm
capacity backup or some similar combination meeting the screening
criteria--along with conservation measures which could serve to limit
projected growth.
Within the Southcentral Railbelt of Alaska, the Susitna and Copper
River drainage basins and .other small rivers, including Crescent,
Chakachatna, Beluga, Yentna~ Skiventna Chulitna, Talkeetna, Bradley
(Creek) and Love were identified in the 1976 Alaska Po~ter Survey by the
Federal Power Commissi-on as having significant conventional hydropower
potentials. This study identified 23 projects, including Devil Canyon,
Wotana and Vee on the Susitna, with a potential installed capacity for
all 23 sites of 8,419 megawatts. There are currently indications that
the 70 MW Bradley Lake Project in the Kenai Peninsula may be developed
in the foreseeable future. Current studies pre also being undertaken
\A/ith the Alaska Power Administration to identify u small hydro"
potential.
The above references, in addition to other earlier work by the Bureau
of Reclamation and Corps of Engineers and the most recent national
Hydropower Study inventory by the Corps of Engineers, will be used to
develop an overall scope of available hydro potential in the region.
The sources will also be used to develop a specific alternative which
could satisfy projected load demands at least as well as the Susitna
Project. Published reports on the potential for development of the
tidal power resources of the Cook Inlet Region \'lill be reviewed for
consideration of this alternative.
(e) Discussion
The analysis of energy supply alternatives for the Railbel t Region
requires input from Subtask 1.02 as well as the forecasting work
performed by the ISER as described in Subtask 1.01. These efforts
describe the anticipated need for the power and energy \'lhi ch ~li 11 be
consumed in the Railbelt Region, regardless of its ultimate source.
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The load duration curves, the distribution of power demand over a given
period of time, are also an important part of the alternatives study.
Depending upon the general shape of the load duration curves, various
al terna.tives may be recognized as being particularly attractive to meet
the future needs of the Railbe1t Region.
Concurrent with the demand estimation phase (Subtask 1.02), an evalua-
tion will be made of the amount of energy that can be supplied by each
of the technologies considered. This will involve a preliminary review
of the estimated amount of each energy resource available in Alaska,
including such items as coal and oil reserves, ·solar* wind and tidal
patterns and geothermal as well as other hydroelectric resources. The
estimates for developing technologies will also include the avail abi ....
1 ity date for commercial use. Preliminary cost estimates will be
developed for each technology (cost/unit energy) based on the many
existing studies (for example see 11 California Electricity Generation
Methods Assessment Project"-~ 1976). These cost .estimates may vary with
the amount of energy delivered, reflecting the necessity to use scarcer
resources.
The supply estimates. for each alternative wi 11 be compared to the
projected .demand to determine what percentage of the demand each
alternative can meet. It may be that some alternatives cannot supply
any of the demand at reasonable cost. These can be immediately elimi-
nated from consideration. Or, it may be that a technology is cost
effective but cannot meet the total expected demand. In this case,
several technologies will be combined to make a single ~ternative
system to. compare with the Susitna project.
The most viable technologies (or groups of technologies) will then be
reduced to a set of well-defined power generation alternatives for more
detailed analysis. The analysis will include a detailed cost analysis
of each alternative (still based primarily on published studies). This
cost analysis will include capital costs (including transmission
system), operation, maintenance and fuel cost, capacity factor estima-
tion and potential for concurrent oper.ations such as \'laste heat distri-
bution. The emphasis will be on consolidating and correlating infonna-
tion from various sources to allow a consistent comparison of alterna-
tives.
A scheduling analysis \'/ill be conducted to determine when the techno-
logy(s) for the alternative will be available and what lead times are
necessary for construction. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation will
be made to identify the non-cost impacts of each alternative. These
impacts are 1 i kely to include environmental impacts (air quality, water
quality and ecology); public health and safety impacts; socioeconomic
impacts (such as a "boom-bustu cycle of population during plant
construction); and the 1 icenseabil ity of specific alternatives to the
extent that no insurmountable legal or environmental barriers are
evident.
Non-cost concerns \ri 11 be organized into a set of attributes for
measuring the overall desirability of each alternative and combined
with cost and scheduling concerns to evaluate each alternatives ·
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These attributes will be designed to cover the range of identified con-
cerns while not overlapping with one another. Each attribute will have
an associated scale (or measure) to identify the level of achievement
of each alternative with respect to attribute. ·
Scales will be designed to be meaningful to decision makers and to be
measurable using existing data as much as possible. If no natural
sea 1 e (such as do 11 ars for the cost attribute) exists; constructed
{judgmental) scales will be used. The results of this analysis can be
presented in a matrix showing the level achieved on each attribute for each alternative.
(f) Schedule
Weeks 20 through 35
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Subtask 1.04 -Selection of Viable Expansion Sequences
(a) Objective
To determine the total system costs of selected future Railbelt Region
expansion sequences, both with and without incorporation of the Susitna
Hydroelectric Project, and rank the perferred generation expansion
scenarios.
(b) Approach
(c)
The most straightforward method of evaluating the potential economic
benefit of a hydroelectric project in a given system expansion scenario
is to compare capital investment and system operating costs on an
annual basis, throughout the tenn of the study, for t\'lo scenarios: one
without the benefit of the proposed hydro project; the other with it.
A number of mathematical models are avail able to facilitate the vast
number of calculations involved_in this type of study. In simplified
terms, the user of such a model provides the program vlith data which
inc 1 udes the character·; sti cs of the forecasted 1 oads and the character-
istics, availability and costs of generation sources which~-will be
available throughout the period of the study. The model then selects
the generation sources avail able to it to satifisy the projected load
in the most economical manner.
To evaluate the economics of a given project, a comparison may be made
of total annual costs of the two system scenarios on a year-by-year
basis throughout the study period. If the system v1ith the hydro
project available is less costly throughout the planning period, the
project is obviously attractive (though not necessarily selected,
because impacts must also be accounted for). Conversely, if this
system is more expensive in all years, then the project is
unattractive.
It is possible, indeed likely, that the outcome of an economic evalua.-
tion would prove not to be so c'lear cut. It may be that the system
incorporating the hydro plar1t \'Iould be more expensive in ~-;me years of
the study, and 1 ess expensive in other·s, than the system without that
project. In this situation, it would be necessary to perform compari-
sons between present worth values of operating cost for systems
represented by the two scenarios.
Although such a strategy may provide a valid economic comparison, the
results may be inconclusive. This is most likely to occur in the case
of a hydro project having a capacity which is relatively small when
compared to its connected system. The economic comparison then may be
relatively small when compared to its connected system. The economic
comparisons may produce a relatively small difference in t\'lo large
numbers.
Selection of Model
In the search for a usable generation planning computer model, three
characteristics of the mode 1 are _paramount:
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-Flexibility---does the model allow for a varied combinatio·n of alternatives?
Accessibility is the model presently available and can it be used
with a minimum of learning time?
-Reliability--is the model actively maintained by its supplier and
has it been used by other utility planners?
A preliminary survey of the market has revealed one model \'kli ch
satisfies all three criteria. Other models may be available, but these
are generally developed either by or for specific utilities to soive
their particular problems or they are so intricate so as to require
special training for their use.
The computer model selected· by kres for this study is the General
Electric Opimized Generation Program, Version Five (OGP-V). Sever~ of
Acres• staff have become familiar with the use of this program on other
studies similar to the Susitna alternatives evaluations. The model is
curre·ntly being used by kres for the evaluation of small hydro sites
in the eastern U.S. Earlier versions of the model, OGP-III and OGP-IV
were used in studies performed for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in
evaluating alternatives for New England Power ~upply scenarios through
the year 2000. This study was part of the Environmental Impact·
Statement for the proposed 944 MW Dickey-Linclon School Lakes Project in Maine.
(d) OGP-V
The OGP-V program combines three main factors of the generation
expansion planning decision process: system reliability evaluation,
operations cost estimation, and investment co~t estimation. The
program begins by evaluation of the po\'ler system reliability in the
first study year by means of one of two methods --either a percentage-
of-reserves calculation or the computation of the loss of load
probability (LOLP).
When the system demand level rises to the point at vJhich either the
user-specified reserve level or the LOLP criteria is violated, the
program uinstall s" new generating capacity. The program \'Jill add
generation capacity from a user-provided list of available sources.. As
each possible choice is evaluated, the program carries out a production
cost calculation and an investment cost calculation, and eliminates
those units or combinations of units \vhose addition to the system
results in higher annual cost than other units or combinations. The
program continues in this manner until ·the least-cost system addition
combination is determined for that year. In cases \'lhere operating cost
inflation is present, or \'/here outage rates vary with time, OGP-V has a
look-ahead feature Vlhich develops levelized fuel and O&M costs and
mature outage rates out to ten years ahead of. the upresent" time. Once
the apparent least-cost additions to the system necessary to satisfy
reserve or LOLP criteria have been selected, the optimum system is described.
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(e) Discussion
Load forecasting and daily load variation data generated in Subtask
1.02 will be used as input to the computer model together with the
following technical and economic planning criteria:
-generation capacity and energy reserve requirements
-retirements of older units
-cost of money
-economic discount rate
-insurance and tax rates
-economic lifetime of equipment
-effects of cost escalation
-period of analysis
This data will be established in consultation with Alaska Power
Authority, other utilities in the Railbelt Region and other pertinent
agen~ies. The analysis will be carried out at the base rate with
sensitivity testing over the possible range for selected alternatives.,
One of the benchmarks against which the economics of a power generating
facility may be measured is the economics of its alternatives. In many
cases, it is possible to identify specific alternatives against which a
given project may be directly compared. Most generating projects are
intended for a specific operating regime within the power system, such
as base-, inter~r1iate-, or peak-load operations For such sourcesa it
is a relatively .;)traightforward task. to evaluate the cost of oper·ating
a specific alternative.
Hydroelectric projects, due to their hydrologic characteristics, must
be evaluated in a somewhat different manner. A hydro project can be
subject to si gni fi cant seasona 1 variations in its generation capacity.
Factors such as rainfall patterns and springtime snowpack runoff can
work to make basel oad and peaking benefits available from the same
hydroelectric project. Also, although intitial studies of the Devil
Canyon-\~atana i nsta 11 ati ons were based upon fifty percent annua 1
capacity factor (1,394 MW.; 6,100,000 MWh/yr), some· based-load (greater
than 80 perc~nt capacity factor) and some peak-load (less than 10
percent capacity factor) energy can be expected to be avail able. The
way in which such additional capacities become available complicates
the evaluation of a hydroelectric project.
Conventional base-load plants such as coal-fired or nuclear steam
plants are commonly built to take advantage of the economies of sca1e
available to large p·lants of this type. Conversely, peaking plants are
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usually relatively small (less than 100 MW). The base-load energy
produced by even a 1 arge hydro plant may be avai 1 able only at such a
small capacity as to make comparison with the conventional alternatives
meaningless. For example, if the Susitna project, with its 1,394 M\-J
output at 50 percent can produce only 125 Mvl at capacity factors
greater than 80 percent, it is d i ffi cu 1 t to make comparisons with
base-load nuclear or coal plants with capacities on the order of 500 M~l
or 1 arger.. In the same sense, hydrologic conditions may make a great
deal of capacity available at a given site for very shorf periods of
~time as peaking energy. Such 1 arge amounts of surplus energy may make
meaningful comparisons between the hydro project and its conventional
alternatives (combustion turbines) difficult.
Thus, the Susitna Project will be evaluated in the light of its effect
upon the mix of alternatives in the po\'ler system and any possible
deferment of capital expenditures for other facilities. To properly
take into account the capacity variations of the projects, its opera-
tion within a power system will be analyzed on a monthly, or at least a
seasonal, basis. More detailed analyses could be performed to define
exact operating procedures, but such deta·il is not justified in a
long-term planning study.
(f) Schedule
Weeks 26 through 40
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Subtask 1.05 -Expansion Sequence Impact Assessments
'
(a) Objective
(b)
To compare, from an environmental standpoint, the consequences of
developing the selected alternative expansion scenarios in the Alaska
Railbelt Region 3 including historical, socioeconomic and other
factors.
Approach L~
The approach to review and assessement ~1 ternati ves will be to pri mari-
ly utilize existing data, and available aerial photography of the
selected or potential source sites whenever and wherever sufficient
information is already available. However, it may be necessary to
_gather 1 i mited site-specific data for the assessment, si nee the
environmental resources of many of the more remote portions of the
study corridor have not been inventoried. The key to this approach is
the use of staff who have an in-depth kno\'lledge of both fish and wild-
1 tfe habitat requirements and a short-term and long-term effects of
impact-producing actions of construction and operation of various
facilities in Alaska.
The environmental consequences of developing alternative·energy sources
are highly dependent upon num.erous factors i ncl udi ng energy resource,
collection method, site location characteristics, site fish and wild-
life characteristics, land-use patterns, and facility construction and
operation designs. A thorough assessment of the impacts of optimum
generation expansion mixes is also dependent upon an understanding of
the habitat requirements of local fish and wildlife during their life
history; a knowledge of limiting habitat factors; and sensitivities
such as fish overwintering areas, and nesting and feeding habitats of
endangered or threatened fauna.
The significant impact-producing actions will vary with the alternative
being assessed. At times, the selected .site location vlill be the prime
factor, while for other alternatives, the short-term or long-term air
quality or wa:ter quality per·turbations, or wildlife habitat degradation
may be the overriding factor. Some of the more significant potential
concerns are discussed below.
The environmental evaluation of the selected hydroelectric and ti da1
power developnent alternatives (if any) will identify the associated
potential impact issues, and their relative magnitudes. Such issues
will involve the relative sizes of reservoirs and impacts on water
quality and fish and wildlife habitats in particular. The environmen-
tal analysis will be performed on the basis of avail able data, ~tJhich
will be compiled for this purpose. For the Task 1 studies, the compar-
ative impact issues associ a ted with the Susitna Project a 1 ready
identified in the current Corps of Engineers EIS, will be used as the
yardstick against v1hich all other alternatives vlill be measured.
Transmission facilities associated with the hydro alternative sites
will be included in this environmental analysis.
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(c)
The intensity of analysis required for comparison of the hydroelectric
alternatives will be less than that required for the primary al terna-
tive (u~ess, of course, preliminary analysis demonstrates an apparent
preference for a particular alternative set)~ Field investigations
\'/ill not be undertaken to confirm the potential magnitude of impacts of
the alternatives.
With coal~fired power plants) such as those associated with the Beluga
and Nenana field, the collection of large quantities of coal throUflh
surface-mining would create environmental concerns. These concerns are
re 1 a ted primarily to l arge-sca 1 e, 1 ong-tenn habitat a 1 terat ions affect-
ing fish and wildlife. The operation of coal-fired plants would also
create problems relating to air quality, cooling water discharges, and
run-off from fly ash ponds. However, plants can be designed to suc-
cessfully mitigate (though not eliminate) these concerns.
New gas or oil-fired power plants require construction of pipelines
that at least lead to short-term concerns associated with river
crossings, wetlands disturbance, and habi.tat alterations. On-site
facilities can cover large acreages., and operation can create air
quality problems related to nitrogen emissions and winter steam
plumes.
Wood-produced energy would also cause air quality problems such as
those currently found in the Fairbanks area. Such plants would
furthermore require clear-cutting of vast acreages of timber. Th'is
may not be environmentally wise due to the slow regeneration time:s
required for tfmber production and hence would lead to long-term
wildlife habitat alterations. Potentially severe impacts to stream
habitats and local fish populations would also result.
Land and Water Use
Land ownership in the vicinity of the alternatives ~11 be identified
as federal ( i ncl udi ng agency jurisdiction), state, borough., priv;ate and
Native Corporation. Land ownership status may be in transition Jue to
the Alaska-Native Claims Settlement Act and State Selection under the
Statehood Act. Land management plans and regulations affecting
alternatives will be evaluated. The various federal, state and local
agencies, and some Native Corporations will have land classification
and management systems governing activities that are allm·1ed on those
lands and \'laters being managed. Stipulations concerning allowable
activities could affect the feasibility of alternatives to Sus'Ytna.
Land and water use patterns (historical, current and proposed) will be
documented in order to evaluate impacts and potential use conflicts
posed by Susitna alternatives~
Unique features in the vicinity of alternative projects, such as recre-
ation areas and aesthetic/visual resources, also will be identified.
The presence of popular recreation areas and unusual aesthetic quality
may present impact and feasibility problems, particularly \'Ihlen on
public lands.
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(d) Socioeconomic Characteristi~s
(e)
Demographic data, historic, current and projected, will be evaluated to
estimate the impact created by the influx of construction and
operations work forces. Employment characteristics of the work force
in the vicinity of alternative projects will also help to evaluate
positive and negative impacts created by project implementation. This
information would include employment and unemployment by region and
skill classification~ and wage rates (also regional and skill
specific).
Financial characteristics of any borough or municipal governments in
alternative project areas will be considered. Tax revenue, mill rates,
and tax base_data will help estimate potential impacts. Housing
characteristics, s~ch as available stock (including rental units) and
vacancy rates, will be utilized for impact evaluation. Community
infrastructure could be impacted by implementing alternatives to the
Susitna project. Current loads on infrastructural systems (i.e.,
electricity, water, sewage) service areas~ and system capacity will
therefore be considered.
Transportation systems potentially affected by project alternatives
will be identified. Data will include current traffic estimates, capa-
city, area of service, and intermodal connections.
Sociocultural characteristics could be an issue in several project
areas. Life style, ethnic traditions and subsistence use patterns of
biological resources will be documented.
Archaeological and Historical Resources
Existing archaeological and historical sites will be
alternative project areas, as available data allow.
Historical Preservation Office maintains a statewide
sites and will be utilized in this effort.
i nvento.ri ed in
The State
fi 1 e of known
(f) Schedule
~leeks 30 through 45
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Subtask 1.06 -Power Alternatives Study Report
(a) Objective
Prepare power alternatives study report for Susitna Hydroelectric
Project.
(b) Approach
The pow~r alternatives study report will address:
-Load forecasting for the Rail belt Region
-Selection of alternative energy and/or power generation scenarios
Evaluation of viable expansion sequence scenarios
-Recommended expansion sequence
The report \'rill document the findings of Subtasks 1.01 through 1..05 and
incorporate the transmittal pr~pared under Subtask 1.02.
(c) Discussion
This report \'li 11 seek to address the fundament a 1 issues of the .. need
for power .. and selection of the optimum future Railbelt Region electri-
cal power supply scenario through the year 2010. If the Susitna
Project is to be justified as a viable and licensable development:) this
report has to provide the fundamental basis for suc~h justification.
Alternatively, if the Susitna Project should not proceed, this. report
must provide the rationale for a decision to cease further investiga-
tions. The report \vill initially be prepared in draft fonn for submis-
sion to Alaska Power Authority for review, and subsequently macle avail-
able to all concerned parties for comment and discussion under the task
12 Public Participating Programo
(d) Schedule
L
Weeks 40 through 48
--...... ,~.~·..-,·~~~~~~ "' . ,,
"
LOAD
FORECASTING
METHODOLOGY .
I 01 I 0 I 10
J
DEVELOPMENT OF
LOAD GROWTH
-,. SCENARfOS .
. 1.02 I 8 l 26 .
...
LEGENO
_.._-SUBTASK TITl.E
-----r-SUBTASK NO.
SELECTION
.... OF
ALTERNATlVES
t.o3 1 20 1
.
""'--COMP' .. l;TlON WEEK ·
'----START WEEK
.
35 .
.. SELECTIO.N OF
VIABLE .. EXPANSION
SEQUENCES
1.o4 I 2s I 40
EXPANSION
SEQl,IENCE
IMPACT
ASSESSMENTS .
1.05 1 30 1 4s ... .
.
if
POWER
ALTERNATIVES
"' STUDY .. .
REPORT .
I.OG l 40 J 48
'SUSlTNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLAN OF STUDY
PLATE Tl. It TASK I LOGlC
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A .. 5.3 -TASK 2; SURVEYS AND SITE FACILITIES
(i) Task Objectives
To provide for safe, cost effective, and environmentally acceptable
logistical support of all project field activities; to conduct those
surveys necessary to furnish data for use in other subtasks which
must be performed prior to licensing; to resolve real estate. issues
associated with the proposed project in sufficient detail to permit
preparation of Exhibit F of the FERC license application; and to
undertake initial studies of proposed reservoir areas and access
roads •
(ii) Task Output
The primary outputs of this task will be major portions of certain
exhibits required for FERC license application and data \'lhich will be
necessary inputs for many of the remaining exhibits. Specifically;,
this task will contribute to Exhibit D (demonstrating evidence of
compliance with State water and land use laws), Exhibit E (providing
water rights data and p 1 ans for perfecting rights to use water for
project operation), Exhibit F (statement of land o~nership). In
addition, surveys and mapping will be essential portions of Exhibit J
(general project map) Rnd Exhibit K (detailed project map showing
boundaries, survey data, 1 and ownership, and feature iocations). In
addition to the data collection and exhibit preparation, a number of
tangible products will be acquired or constructed and will generally
be suitable for use during the post-application phase andbeyond ..
In this latter category are included camp facilities, airfield, and
similar semi-permanent items.
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 2.01 -Provision for Land Use Payments and Directed
Inspection Services
Subtask 2.02 -Provision of Field Camps and Associated Logistic
Support
Subtask 2~03 -Resupply and Emergency Service
Subtask 2.04 -Land Status Research
Subtask 2.05 Land Acquisition Analysis
Subtask 2. 06 -Right-of-Entry
Subtask 2.07 -Site Specific Surveys
Subtask 2.08 -Aerial Photography and Photogrammetric Mapping
Subtask 2.09 -Control Network Surveys
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Subtask 2.10 -Access Roads
Subtask 2.11 --Map and Photo Search
Subtask 2.12 -Field Reconnaissance of Reservoir Areas
Subtask 2"13 -Marketabi}ity and Disposal Study for Reservoir Area
Subtask 2.14 -Cost Estimates for-Reservoir Clearing
Subtask 2.15 -Slope Stability and Erosion Studies
Subtask 2.16-Hydrographic Surveys
{iv) Subtask Scope of Statements
-:!) Section A.8 of this plan of study provides a logistical plan describ-
ing measures, procedures, considerations, and responsibilities
incident to the conduct of effective logistic operations. Subtasks
2.01 through 2.03 are generally concerned with implementation of
field operations under that plan in a safe, economical, and
environmentally acceptable manner. Task 13, Administration, provides
for an in-state project office as the essenti a 1 1 ink between fi e.l d
operations and concurrent efforts to be undertaken in Alaska and
elsewher.e. This project office will not only facilitate essential
procurement, communication, and coordination of logistical support~
but also it will ensure that data gEmerated in the field is properly
and expeditiously routed to various points where it will be
processed, interpreted, and evaluated.
Subtasks 2.04 through 2.06 deal with real estate aspects. It is by
no means clear at the time of pr~paration of this plan of study just
which of several land interest will predominate at any given stage in
the study process. Thus, it is all the more essential that careful
attention to real estate details be paid early and continuously.
Land survey activities are genera"lly provided for in Subtask 2.07
through 2. 09 and hydrographic survey in Subtask 2.16. Only such
mapping and control as is necessary for license application will be
accomplished in the initial 30 months after notice to proceed is
giveno It follows, then, thctt some survey activity may be expected
to occur in succeeding months prior to granting of the license.
Subtasks 2.10 through 2.15 deal in general with lands whose current
conditions will be permanently changed in the event that the proposed
project is ultimately constructed. Technical implications of actual
conditions discerned along a~ternative access roads and within
potential reservoir areas are assessed in this group of subtasks.
Surveys and route selection studies associated with transmission
lines are separately provided for under Task 8.
It is clear that a certain risk is associated with incurring the
relatively large expenditures in accomplishing this task.
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It is entirely possible that concurrent efforts dealing~ for example,
\'tith possible alternatives under Task 1 or environmental impacts
under Task 7 may i ead to a decision at the end of the twe 1 fth month
to abandon the Susitna Hydroelectric ProJect in favor of some other
choice or combination of choices for satisfaction (or, indeed, if
appropriate, consciously forcing growth limits through nonsatis-
faction) of forecasted load requirements. We will minimize the· risk
insofar as practicable by delaying those field subtasks which can
reasonably be d~layed as long as possible without jeopardizing plans
for filing the FERC license application by mi~-1982.
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Subtask 2 .. 01 -Provision for Non-Qiscretionary Payments
(a) Objective
Make explicit provision for certain budget items not subject to
discretion of the engineer.
(b) Approach
Several budget items are ·included in this plan of study to account for·
APA's directions in that regard.. Specifically, the costs noted in
subparagraph (d) bel ovt account for 1 and use payments to affected Native
Corporations in the amount of $36,000 per year·, full time inspection
services to protect native interests in the amount of $3,000 per month,
and funds for s~udy coordination and review by APA in the amount of
$100,000 per year.
(c) Discussion
The APA Request for Proposal, dated June 25, 1979, directed that the
above items be included~~ The requirement to fund a full time Susitna
Coordinator in the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and to set asidP
$1 million for an independent cost estimate and seismic risk analysis
is accounted for elsewhere in this plan of study.
(d) Schedule
Throughout entire period.
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:_ •• • • .. :· • • • ... _... :·· t • • ·-,. • ; ' • •• • •
' . ~ ::..it':' . . ~· . . •.• : I 'u . , . . . , . • . • • . ...
(.. . . . .. ~ ~ ~ . .. ·~ .... . . .. . . .... .
Subtask 2.02 -Provision of Field Camps and Associated Logistic Sueport
(a) Objectives
Provide acceptable living accorrmodations for assigned field personnel
and necessary visitors and provide a base for field operations in the
most economic and efficient manner.
{b) Approach
There will be a permanent base camp at Watana. To the extent that
accommodations are required at Devil Canyon~ an existing lodge will be
used or austere tent facilities will be temporarily operated. All the
design· v1ork and the procurement of modular units and attendant 1 ife
support system (power plants, v1ater plant!' sewage treatment plant and
con~unications system) will be done immediately after contract award.
The Watana camp will be sized to accommodate a maximum of 42 people and
its layout will be based on previous camps designed for Alaskan
conditions. This "off the shelf11 approach will help reduce costs. The
modular units and equipment will then be transported overland from
Denali Highway. The l~atana camp will be erected in 1 ate February~ 1980,
and operations will begin by March, 1980. This camp \1/ill be the main
base of field operations as well as the point of in-depth study of the
Watana site and the surrounding area.
The t~atana camp VIi 11 be operated and
from March~ 1980 through June, 1982.
be occupied as required by the field
September, 1980 and 1981).
maintained on a continual basis
The Devil Canyon facilities will
support schedule (June through
The Watana camp will be constructed from modular units and will have
camp 1 ete water and sewer treatment systems. It wi 11 have ·warehouse,
shop, recreational, office, food service, laundry, and fuel storage
facilities. It will also have sheltered electrical generators and an
incinerator. The dormitory~ food service~ and recreation buildings
will be interconnected with Arctic walkways.
A variety of cost comparison alternatives will be evaluated prior to
start of field operations. Should any of these alternatives be found
to be cost effective, they will be included in the field plan. The
alternatives to be evaluated include:
(1) Utilization of Arctic type sewage treatment plant, with chlori-
nated effluent, in lieu of a sev1er· treatment plant \·lith a l;:tgoon
system for waste water effluent. This 0pproach will depend upon
obtaining the necessary permit for the t·.rctic type plant.
.
(2) Utilizing a lake as the water supply in place of drilling a water well ..
(3) The e1 imi nation of some or all the Arctic \1a 1 kways and reconfi gur-
ing the camp to minimize exposure to the most severe ambient conditions.
(4) Burying solid waste~instead of incineration if the proper permit
can be obtained.
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{c)
A potential way to reduce program cost is through a consolidated
logistics effo~t. Consolidated logistics management wouldAensure the
minimal utilization of supply aircraft and vehicles, consistent with
the field schedule and quantity of materials to be transported. We
will continuously monitor-and adjust the overall logistics operation to
minimize costs and environmental disruptionQ The principal Acres
representative (Chief Engineer for Alaskan Operations--CEAO) will have
responsibility and authority for such efforts and may, if economics can
be effected thereby, designate a single logistics manager from within
the Acres team.
Discussion (} ___ ,____
It will be noted that meeting the planned FERC application target at 30
monthsafter notice to proceed requires the earliest possible commence-
ment of field operations. Certain key assumptions implicit in our plan
for establishment of a permi.inent camp near the Watana damsite prior to
break-up include the following:
(1) Funds will be made available immediately after contract award to
permit expedited procurement of "long 1 ead" items. .
(2) The important requirement for archeological reconnaissance and
associated clearances prior to disturbing natural conditions
generally cannot be satisified until snow cover is gone from the
proposed camp area.. We assume that the first stage camp construc-
tion and initial operation will be conducted in areas previously
checked out for earlier Corps of Engineers activities. Only so
much of the semi-permanent -camp near Watana as can be erected on
archeologically cleared land will be installed initially.
Remaining modules and supplies to be brought in while the ground
is frozen will be stored until after break-up. Archeological
reconnaissance to permit expansion wi 11 be under·taken as a matter
of priority as soon as conditions are favorable for that work.
(3) 0\'lnership for project lands will be transferred to Cook Inlet
Region Incorporated prior to commencement of field activities.
{4) The cooperation of various permitting agencies and organizations.
in expediting necessary early permits will be secured.
The camp accommmodation requirements in a remote Alaskan ·environment
cannot be underestimated. The size of camp proposed has been
determined as the minimum size necessary to undertake the required
field vwrk (surveys, geotechnical exploration, hydrologic and seismi'C
monitoring, and environmental studies) in the proposed time frame.
The capital cost of erecting a semi-permanent camp capable of accommo-
dating peak loads of 40 people or so and average loads of 20· tJo 30 is
significant. Whereas the. initia.l contract will cover a period of only
30 months, it may be anticipated that field activities will be required
on a continuous basis for some years after license application is made.
Thus, the camp is expected to remain in place to support prist-
application studies and investigations.
(d) Schedule
Throughout project period.
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Subtask 2.03 -Resupply and Emergencx_ Service
(a) Objective
Provide responsive and reliable resupply and emergency service capa-
bility with minimum environmental degradati6n.
{b) Approach
As soon as possible after the camp has been put in place, a helicopter
pad wi1.1 be constructed nearby. During the initial year of camp
operation!P helicopters will be employed to transport personnel,
perishables~ certain consumables, equipment, and miscellaneous items to
and from the camp site. Helicopter support will be furnished both from
Anchorage and from Talkeetna, with the bulk of the effort from the
Talkeetna terminus. An average of one large helicopter fl.ight daily
(such as by Bell 205A-l) will be required for this purpose. By the end
of the first year of work, an evaluation of the need for construction
of an airfield at the ~amp site will be made and an assessment of the
environmental consequences of its construction will be accomplished.
_In the event that a decision is then made not to construct an airstripi
camp resupply and eme.rgency service wi 11 continue to be accomp 1 i shed by
helicopters.
Development of a properly sized and designed airstrip could serve to
expedite subsequent operations at the project site. Site selection can
best be obtained through a repetitive process of evaluation, beginning
with several alternatives and eliminating those that do not meet the
necessary requirements.
The scope of work during the initial airstrip design activity would be
Airphoto study, aided by evaluation of existing boring logs and
topographic maps. If an airstrip is found to be justified, a field
check of this initial study will be made prior to making the final
selection of the airstrip site. The design phase is envisioned as
being completed in three stages. The initial stage will consist of
providing tentative drawings for the airstrip and related facilities~
such as access roads to material sources needed in its construction.
The subsequent phase will provide drawings suitable for construction
purposes as well as a cost estimate for the construction of the
facility. ·
Time de~endent requirements such as permits, wind direction informa-
tion, archeological studies, and the stockpiling of initial construc-
tion supplies will be started as soon as possible.
The airstrip will continue to function.after FERC license application
has been made. Indeed, assuming that the project is sho\'m to be
viable, the airstrip will continue to serve throughout the period
during v1hich the proposed dam is constructed (and beyond that, perhaps
during operation of the project some years hence). "It follows that
design, arrangement~ and construction will be accomplished in such a
way that later expansion or permanent surfacing will be possible.
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(c) Discussion
The first version of the POS (September 11, 1979) envisioned construc-
tion of an airfield during the first year of the project~ A careful
re-evaluation of ~this approach became necessary, however, when it was
determined that overland transportat-ion during the summer months--even
by Rolligon--may be counter indicated because of the fragility of the
vegetation over which all-terrain vehicles would pass. The inability
to remove heavy construction equipment until the following winter (when
Rolligons or cat trains could negotiate the terrain) resulted in
extremely high costs associated with rental of idle equipment. In
addition, the fact that a Go-No-Go decision is scheduled for the end of
the first year suggests that capital investments should be minimized to
the extent possible until it becomes clear that a project is in fact
warranted. ·Thus was it determined that the alternative of helicopter
support is preferable during 1980.
If after the first year it is clear that hydroelectric development of
the Susitna River is in the best interests of the State of Alaska, the
question of airfield construction must once again be evaluated. While
feasibility study effort can proceed using helicopter support
continuously and using overland heavy resupply in the winter, it is
nonetheless true that an airfield will eventually be required for
support of activities during later construction stages. Once the high
-initial cost of an airfield is incurred, subsequent resupply by fixed
wing aircraft becomes less costly than exclusive helicopter usage.
Through the public participation program {Task 12), the views of the
public at large and of all interested agencies will be solicited prior
to reaching a decision on airfield construction.
The level of effort provided in cost tabulations in Section A3 will be
assigned to helicopter costs until an affirmative decision is made to
build an airfield. Remaining portions of budgeted costs for this
subtask will then be assigned to airfield construction work. In the
event that no airfield is built during the first 30 months of effort
3 air transportation costs included under Subtask 2.02 for fixed wing air
resupply will ultimately be diverted as well to helicopter support.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 9 through 130
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Subtask 2.04--Land Status Research
. (a) Objectives
Identify ownership and other interests in and adjoining the project
area and associated transmission corridors and provide information
needed for pov1er project planning, land acquisition analysis, and for
obtaining rights-of-entry to conduct field studies.
(b) Approach
Ownership information will be gathered from the tax assessor and land
recorder, BLM, the State Division of Lands, and Native Corporations.
Lands will be categorized by general ownership category (private land,
State land, U. S-land~ and Native land) and status maps at an appro-
priate scale will be prepared. Other factors affecting land status,
such as third party rights, State or Federal agency designations, or
limited interest rights will be indicated.
(c) Discussion
Cook Inlet Region~ Inc. has already collected a substantial portion of
the infonnation i"equired. The cost of completing this task will be
reduced substantially because this information and the corporationts
land status research capability will be utilized.
(d) Schedule.
I Weeks 0 through 15
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Subtask 2.05 -Land Acquisition Analysis
(a) Objectives
Identify 1 ands which must be acquired or for which right-of-way permits
or easements must be obtained and estimate land acquisition costs and
right-of-way permitting requirements.
(b) Appro"ach
Once plans for the siting of all elements of the power project have
·been developed, a detailed inventory of private qnd public lands on
which facilities are to be built will be prepared. Each private land
owner will be identified and the amount and market value of land to be
acquired by either easement or purchase wi 11 be estimated,. The amount
of public 1 and required will be broken down by agency 1 and holder and
an estimate of the cost of right-of-way permits will be made. Evidence
of title will be secured as needed. All third party rights will be
identified and evaluated in terms of impact on acquisition costs.
(c) Discussion
Cook Inlet Region, Inc. has already collected a substantial portion of
the information required. The cost of completing this task will
therefore be minimized.
(d) Schedule
II Weeks 61 through 73
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Subtask 2 .. 06 -Right ... of-Entrl
(a) Objectives
Provide the information needed to obtain right ... of-entry to private
lands as required for reconnaissance, surveying, and other field
investigations; acquire necessary rights-of-entry.
(b) ApprOach
On the basis of the overall field plan, the private lands to be entered
will be determined and the appropriate land owners will be identifiedo
Permits required for entry and use of pub 1 i c lands wi 11 normally be
obtained by CIRI/H&N in response to requirements of individual investigating teams.
(c) Discussion
Obtaining rights-of-entry will more efficiently be accomplished when
done by one project associate rather than by each individual team
membero This will also assure that the needed rights-of-entry have
been obtained and that no trespass occurs. And beyond that, of course,
it provides a positive means to ensure that redundant applications are
not filed--an important consideration to permitter and permittee alike. •
(d) Schedule
Throughout project period with most emphasis during initial six months.
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Subtask 2.07 -Site SQecific Surve,ys
(a) Objective
Provide "on the ground" surveys of specific at"eas which require a
higher level of accuracy than can otherwise be obtained through photogrammetric mapping.
(b) Approach
Two fie1d surveyed cross sections wi11 be obtained at each dam site
consisting, essentially, of an accurate profile perpendicular to the river. on a predefined axis.
The site survey of the airstrip, if found necessary after the first
year, will be conducted using conventional survey techniques to
establish topography of such accuracy as to allow construction plans to
be prepared. This activity includes the construction lay-out surveys
for building of the airstrip and it is covered under Subtask 2.03.
The site survey wi 11 be required of the temporary camp to faci 1 it ate
design of the camp, sewage disposal system and water supply. This
activity is covered under Subtask 2.02.
A site survey at each dam site will be conducted "on the ground 11 at a
1 ocat ion contemplated for S\'litchyards-transformer pads to faci 1 it ate
the design of those facilities but will not require construction staking during this study phase.
(c) Discussion
These site specific survey efforts will augment photogrammetric
mapping.. They must be conducted reasonably early in the study process
since the results will be required for subsequent design studies ~nd
field construction of certain temporary facilities. Crews involved in
the work will be furnished lodging and air transportation, the costs
for which are separately included under Subtask 2 .. 02. ·The long exper-
ience of R&M Consultants, Inc., in similar work throughout the State h~s resulted in R&M's acquisiti6n of equipment tailored for use in
remote, harsh environments as well as in the develop of field pro-
cedures well suited to the instant requirement.
{d) Schedule
Weeks 9 through 12, and 22 through 26
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Subtask 2.08 -Aerial Photography and Photogrammetric Mapping_
{a) Objective
Provide contour mapping of both Devil Canyon and Watana Dam and
Reservoir sites,·photography and contour mapping of access corridors,
photography of transmission corridor, photography to be used by
geologists in terrain unit mapping, photography to be used in the
environmental-studies of the project area and photography of the
Susitna River dovmstream to Talkeetna for use by hydrologists.
Approach
Partial mapping of the Watana Dam Site has previously been accomplished
through efforts of the Army Corps of Engineers. Photography exists on
the Devil Canyon Dam Site but no contour mapping has been
accomplished.
The Corps of Engineers • effort, as stated above, wi 11 be evaluated and
augmented, as required, by additional mapping of the dam sites at a
scale of 1" = 200' with a contour interval of 2 feet.
The reservoir sites, camp and airport sites, switchyard sites, access
corridors, transmission corridor and lower Susitna River downstream to
Talkeetna will be paneled (targeted), survey tied to horizontal and
vertical control and aerial photogr,aphed. Contour mapping by photo-
grammetrical methods will be performed at a mapping scale of:
Watana and Devil Canyon Reservoir Sites---1" = 400 1 with 10 1 contours
Watana and Devil Canyon Dam Sites---------1 11 = 200' with 2' contours
Alternative Access Routes---~·---------..----1" = 400' with 10 1 contours
Field Camp and Airstrip-------------------1" = 400' with 10' contours
Certain activities essential to eventual detailed design will be
deferred unti1 after license application has been filed. These inciude·
contour mapping by photogra~nmetrica1 methods at mapping scales of:
Switchyards-------------------------------1 11 = 200' with 5' contours
Selected Access Route---------------------1 11 = 200 • w·ith s• contours
Selected Transmission Route---------------1" = 200• with s• contour!i-
The lo\'/er Susitna River and transmission corridor will be photographed
and ortho photos prepared prior to 1 icense application but no contour
ma)ping is anticipated until later in the program.
.A 11 aerial photography that is to oe used for contour mapping of
1 11 = 200• must be taken during the spring or fall of the year when snow
is not present on the ground and when deciduous vegetation is without
leaves. Fortunately, the pre-application requirements in this area are
relatively modest.
Existi rq contour mapping pr·eviously performed by the Corps of Engineers
must be correlated to accurate vertical datum as current datum used was
determined from V.A.B.M. (Vertical Angle Bench Mark) and is only
accurate to plus or minus 15 feet.
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(c) Discussion
The aerial photography and mapping program described herein is con-
sidered the minimum necessary to satisfactorily prepare necessary
exhibits for FERC license application._ Even so, the costs of such
efforts are not insignificant. Thus, any additional measures which may
serve to further reduce costs are important.. In this regard, we wi 11 mak~e a detai.led and comprehensive assessment of all photography-flovm
to date by the Corps of Engineers and others to ensure that duplication
of previous efforts does not occur.
We are aware that some ~nprocessed aerial phdtographic data has been
collected in the past two years by the Corps. Its usefulness for
partial satisfaction of the subtask objective has yet to be evaluated.
The output of this subtask will produce much of the base map and other
data require9 for FERC Exhibits J and K, general and detailed project
maps respectively. The requirement for 10' contours is explicit under
FERC regulations for Exhibit K. Should new regulations relax that
rule, effort will be adjusted accordingly.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 3 through 39
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Subtask 2.09 -Contrr)l Network Surveys
(a) Objective
Provide a more frequent interval of horizontal and vertical survey
control than currently exists in the project area.
(b) Approach
Both u_.s.c. & G.S. and recently conducted private control network
schemes will be expanded for use on site specific surveys., photo
control surveys and cadastral surveys of otherwise protracted township
and section surveys. The control network will also be used to expand
State Plane and Universal Transverse Mercator grid values to all
project surveys.
The frequency of high order survey monuments of known precise hori-
zontal values are all but non-existent in the project area.
Utilizir.g "one second" theodolites, medium to long range. electronic
distance measuring devices and helicopter supported ground crews, a
chain of high accuracy control monuments will be established on each
side of the river basin frcm the upper reaches of Watana Reservoir site
to the lower end of Devil Canyon. This network will serve as the
11 Spine 11 of all subsequent survey activity and mapping effort.
A precise level circuit will be run extending from the existing U.S.C.
& G.S. circuit up to the Parks Highway-railroad, up river through both
the Devils Canyon Dam site and the Watana Dam site and tying to the
existing U .. S.C. & G.S. circuit along the Denali Highway.
This level circuit will be the first precise level circuit ever run in
the area and will be the basis for all vertical elevations used on the
project ..
Helicopter support for this subtask is included within Subtask 3.03.
(c) Discussion
The effort required in establishing control network surveys is _
significant.. In less remote regions in the lo\'Jer 48 states, such
activity will normally have been conducted by others well in advance of
hydroelectric project planning. Thus, it is unusual that a feasibility
study must bear the cost of such an undertaking. Even so, the work is -
imperative, for the uncertainty associated with current locations and
elevations as found on existing topographic maps is simply too great to
support precise planning incident to determination of project
viability: Whether or not a project is ever constructed on the Susitna
River, though, the establishment of a control network will provide
significant residual value for the State of Alaska.
(d) ~chedule
Weeks 5 through 30
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Subtask 2.10 -Access Roads
(a) Objectives
Define alternative access routes; evaluate technical, economic~ and
environmental factors for each; and recommend best alternative.
{b) Approach
Access roads wi 11 be required during construction to darn sites,
quarries and borrow pits. Effort wi 11 be made to minimize grades~
number and size of borrow pits~ unwanted access~ and 1 imit· en vi ron-
mental constraints at the smallest cost and time to the project.
Geological studies and surveys are discussed under other task headings.
For this portion of the work it is anticipated that three separate
routes will be considered in detail o Two of these routes will
originate from the Park • s Hi ghvtay and extend to the east to the dam
site. One route will follow the north bank of the Susitna River to the
dam site. The other route wi 11 fall ow the south bank of the Susitna
River. The third route to be considered wi 11 come from the northeast
from the Denali Highway. It is further anticipated that one of these
routes will be selected to be considered as a possible railroad access
route. In addition) a sub-alternative to be considered in the Parks
Highway routings will be one which envisions the establishment of a
railhead {near Gold Cree·k~ for example) as the western terminus of the access road.
The preliminary study portion of this phase of the work will entail
reviewing photos and existing maps of the possible access routes as
well as the Cini!plete review of all work already completed by the U.S.
Army Corps of ~ngineers. Once this work is completed, it is antici-
pated that all ~hree corridors selected for possible access routes \till
have low level aerial photography flown. Once this photography is
available, detailed analyses of the photos coupled with existing data
will result in initial route selection. During this process those
prob 1 em areas i dent i fi ed by the 1 ow 1 eve 1 aeri a 1 photography wi 11 be
investigated in the field to determine solutions. Following this work
cross comparisons of pr~liminary design will be accomplished so as to
finalize selection of the best access to the project. Environmental
data collection and impacts analysis of alternative routes--and, in
more detail~ of the selected route--wi 11 be accompli shed as a part of
Task 8 -Environmental Studies. Sufficient detail \'till be developed to
permit preparation of a preliminary cost estimate. Selection of a best
route will consider all aspects and will draw heavily as well on inputs
from the public participation program outlined in Task 12.
"" Subsequent to license application, full control will be established
along the access route that has been selected and once again low level
aerial photos will be flovm and mapping vtill be accomplished to a five
foot interval at a scale of l-inch= 200-feet. Once this infonnation
has been obtained, the detailed design of an alignment within the route
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corridor-will be accomplished. In conjunction \"lith this detailed
ali.gnment study~ possible materictl sites will also be investigated.
Once the final alignment has been established, the drilling program to
establish geotechnical and geological criteria will be initiated. Upon
the completion of that phase, further investigations will be necessary
to remedy any problems discovered by the geotechnical information.
After this phase is completed the final costing for the selected
alignment with the proposed plan and profile sheets and a written
report will be presented.
(c) Discussion-
The selection of access roads involves consideration of diverse factors
and neither technical ease of development nor economic considerations
alone ~'lill necessarily be the deciding factor.. IndeBd, fund_amental
questions l''egarding eventual plans for controlling access to the
project and the fragility of the environment itself will be extreme.ly
important. In this regard, an access road which connects only v1ith a
railhead (to be established, for example_, near Gold Creek) would better
faci1itate controlling visitor access than would a connection with any
of the highways. There is little doubt that conflicting -Interests will
need to be addressed. It is certain that Native villages and the Cook
Inlet Region, who will eventually acquire surface and subsurface rights
in the project area, will have to be heeded. It is certain, too, that
the impacts on local fish and game populations will have to be weighed
.and ·assessed. In short, this subtask will provide for the collection
of engineering data, the preparation of preliminary economic data_, the
evaluation of environmental data collected on other tasks, and the
selection of the apparent best choice when all factors are considered
in their proper per~;pectives ..
(d) Schedule
Weeks 52 through 100
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Subtask 2 .. 11 -Map and Photo Search
(a) .Objective
Conduct a preliminary assessment of the reservoir areas as the basis
for identifying proper locations for pursuing an optimum field reco~naissance program.
(b) Approach
All aerial photography, satellite photography~ existing topographic
maps, geologic maps, and other available field information will be
reviewed by selected members of the project team6 This review will
concentrate on th~ identification of particular areas which require
verification or evaluation in the field during a site inspectioi~.
Based upon this review, a program for conduct of subsequent field
reconnaissance efforts will be planned in detail.
(c) . Discussion
Depending upon ultimately selected dam height and sites, reservoirs can
be upwards to 100 miles in length. It is neither necessary nor pract i-
cal in the pre-licensing phase to conduct detailed extensive investiga-
tions of every square foot in this extensive area. Even so, a proper
assessment of the implications of inundation in the project area will
be necessary. Based upon this assessment, cost estimates· i nvo 1 ved in
preparing lands for eventual inundation can be derived. In addition~
there may be ways and means to -reduce environmental impact if judicious
use of materials recovered from reservoir areas is planned in the project construction.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 16 through 26
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Subtask 2.12 -Field Reconnaissance of Reservoir Area
(a) Objectives
....
t1ake on-the-ground checks to verify iJdequacy of information obtained
during the map and photo search; more precisely delineate dimensions of
those portions of the reservoir are~ which are likely to require
special attention during the ultimate construction of the project.
(b) Approa~h
The field reconnaissance team will be furnished with marked-up maps
produced during Subtask 2.11.. By making on-the-ground inspections, the
team will be able to ascertain the extent of clearing required as well
as estimate size, nature and density of various trees to be removed.
In addition, some initial estimates will be made of soil types,
particularly as they would affect slope stability. To the extent that
surficial inspection will reveal it, the field team will seek borrow
areas in reservoirs in order to minimize eventual environmental impact outside reservoir areas.
(c) Discussion
A portion of the field reconnaissance effort can actyally be accom-
plished by helicopter, as the reconnaissance team overflies reservoir
areas and checks the general shape and location of vegetative growth to
be removed, verifying that it has been accurately reflected in the initial subtask.
Some on-the-ground verifications will be required. The whole effort~
insofar as field reconnaissance is concerned, is primarily geared
toward producing a reasonable estimate of the effort required in
preparing various areas for eventual inundation. In this regard, for
ex amp 1 e, it becomes important to verify the size, natur·e, diameter· of
trees because marketabi 1 ity wi 11 be studied. The question of slope
stability and protection is naturally pertinent since the reservoir
level particularly behind Watana Dam is expected to fluctuate on an
annual basis by as much as 150 feet. This latter question is .. separately addressed in Subtask 2.15.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 26 through 34
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Subtask 2 .. 13 ... Marketability and Di~osal Study for Reservoir Area
(a) Objectives
Study aiternative means for disposing of vegetative material to be
removed from the "reservoir area.
(b) Approach
Enquiries will be made of various companies dealing in timber in Alaska
with a view toward detennining the extent to which timber harvested
from the proposed reservoir areas may be marketable. In the event that
the costs of recovery exceed market values, an assessment will be made
of intangible benefits which may still suggest that attempting to sell
cut timber is th~ appropr·iate option .. Other alternatives for disposing
of materials to be removed will be considered, to include burial as
well as burning. Native villages whose lands border or actually
overlap with proposed reservoir areas wi 11 be consulted during the
course of the study with a view to\'Jard seeking their desires on timber disposal.
(c) Discussion
It is important to note that economics will not be the only determinant
in the evaluation of alternative means for disposing of vegetative
materials. Indeed, ultimate disposition may be directed far more by
other factors than by apparent 1 east cost alone. Even so, for purposes
of estimating costs for licensing, it wjll be sufficient to represent
the probable least cost method of undertaking the work. Native
villages owning surface rights to the affected areas will be directly
affected by this work. CIRI will coordinate the input of the villages.
Data gathered during-the previous subtask regarding sizes, types and
quantities of trees as well as slope conditions and general accessi-
bility will be used. Alternatives such as helicopter logging,
construction of logging roads and use of hovercraft will be considered.
There is a distinct and important interface between this study and
environmental studies conducted in the same area. Summary impacts will
be described to indicate the most serious consequences of burial,
burning, and removing. While data collection during previous subtasks
will have been accomplished during the summer period, the marketability
and disposal study itself can be conducted at any time thereafter.
(d) Schedule
l~eeks 34 to 48
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Subtask 2.14 -Cost Estimates for Reservoir Clearing
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(a)
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(b)
(c)
(d)
Objective
Determine reservoir clearing costs.
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Approach
This subtask is not independent of the marketability study which
precedes it in this Plan of Study. For each marketing alternative,
there could be a different clearing approach. Thus, a series of
successive iterations of cost estimates \'li 11 be necessary until the
proper combination of marketing appro-ach and its related clearing
technique has been found.. An estimate will then be made of the costs
of doing the clearing so that the net profit or loss on timber market-
; ng can be determined.
Discussion
It wi 11 be necessary during this task to ~epa rate clearing costs for
reservoirs associated with each of the proposed dams. This will permit
subsequent evaluations of a range of alternative phasing for separate
dam~ in the system.
Schedule
Weeks 34 tu 48
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Subtask 2.15 -Slope Stability and Erosion Studi~~
(a) Objectives
Estimate the extent to which cleared slopes will maintain stability;
estimate the risk that continued reservoir operation will cause one or
more slopes to fail,; and estimate costs of minimizing slope failure
risks ..
(b) Approach
Field data collected during the reconn~aissance under Subtask 2.12 vdll
be used as the basis for analyzing the potential for slope stability
problems. To the extent that such problems appear to exist, alterna-
tive means of slope protection will be considered. It will be assumed
that slope protection will be. required if there is a danger of failure
during continued operation.
(c) Discussion
Risk estimates developed during this study will be used ultimately in
the risk analysis to ensure that all potential difficulties have been
accounted for. The costs of providing appropriate slope protection
necessarily become a part of the tot a 1 project cost estimate to be
considered ultimately in dett:rmining project financibility and
viability.
Subsequent to submission of the license application, much more detailed
and vigorous erosion control studies will be required to minimize
damage caused by a concentrated flow of water over newly constructed
slopes or in areas where the natural vegetative cover has been
removed. The objective of this post-application task will be to issue
recommendations and delineate problem areas where an added degree of
caution should be exercised. A two part study is contemplated to
fulfill these needs. This task will be limited to the general site
eat .. thwork and is not intended to address erosion of the do\'mstream "
channel of the dam site ..
Input from the fir·st phase of the detailed erosion study \'till come from
an evaluation of soil types obtained from project test borings and
laboratory test data. Air photo studies will also be used!' It is
presently anticipated that a sufficient number of test borings will
have been drilled in other project tasks to accomplish this study
without additional test borings. Nevertheless, samples of surficial
soil may be collected for identification and classification pur~oses,
and laboratory tests may be performed.
A report describing areas of varying d·~grees of erosion susceptibi 1 ity
will be prepared. Some of the factors that will be considered in this
evaluation wi11 be the soil type and its consistency. Included in this
report will be a discussion of erosion control for general site
grading.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 47 to 54
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Subtask ?-16 -Hydrographic Surveys
(a) Objective
Provide field and aerial survey data ·relating to the river gradient and
cross sectional configuration of the active flood plain.
(b) Approach
Through the use of deferential level circuits, 60 miles of river will
be profi·led from the lower portion of Devil Canyon, do\1/nstream, to the
confluence of the Susitna, Talkeetna and Chulitna River·s near the town
of Talkeetna.
Pre-set picture panels for aerial photogrammetry will be tied to the
profile level circuit for later use in river cross sections.
Cross sections of the river's active flood plain will be measured at
selected intervals and based on e 1 evat ions established during river
profi 1 ing.
The true interval and relationship of river cross sections to the river
and other cross sections will be determined photogramnetrically and
geometrically from pre-set picture panels (crosses) that can be·
identified in the aerial photos.
(c) Discussion
Careful study of downstream hydrographic conditions is a vital part of
the-total data call ecti on effort, particularly because project operat-
ion will produce changes in the flow regime. Subsequent environmental
studies will rely on the data produced here for use in the study of
potentia 1 impacts on fisheries as \t~e 11 as on moose browse now gro\•ri ng
in certain low areas subject to regular inundation \'then the project
operates. In addition, as design studies progress, determinations will
be made as to the need for re-regulation structures.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 5 through 17 and 36 through 48
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A~5.4 -TASK 3: HYDROLOGY
(i) Task Objectives
To undertake and report on all hydrologic, hydraulic, ice,and
climatic studies necessary to complete the feasibility design of the
Susitna project and to provide sufficient documentation for the FERC
license application. ·
{ii) Task Output
-Data Index System
A data index system listing all the available hydrologic and
climatologic data will be compiled and circulated. Hard copy of
the more relevant data items \'lill be stored in the project office
in Anchorage and copies made available to those requesting it.
All the additional hydrologic and climatologic field data
co 11 ected as part of this study wi 11 be documented on either
computer printout sheets or typewr·itten tables.
-Written Sections and Drawings for Inclusion in the FERC License
feplication
Exhibit H -proposed reservoir operating rules, predicted
reservoir behavior, and downstream watet" qua 1 ity and
flow conditions.
Exhibit I -dependable power flow, critical design low flow
peri ad, flow· duration curves and tail\'tater rating
curves.
Exhibit K -reservoir shorelines for maximum and minimum
reservoir water 1 eve ls and reservoir water 1 evel area
and capacity curves.
Exhibit L-sp.ilh'lay design flood and capacity and freeboard
allowance.
-Hydrologic Appendices to Engineering Report
The detailed technical appendices will contain sections on the
following types of studies: hydrology (resource and floods},
reservoir operation, hydraulic, sediment yield, river morphology,
ice engineering, climatic studies for transmission line design,
and hydro 1 ogi c and hydraulic studies for the access road.
- A Series of Design Transmittals
These \'fill summarize the pertinent design parameters obtained from
the studies outlined above.
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(iii) List of Subtasks
3.01 -Review of Available Material
3.02 -Field Data Index and Distribution System
3.03 -Field Data Collection and Processing
3.04 -Water Resources Studies
3.05 -Flood Studies
3.06-Hydraulic and Ice Studies
3.07 -Sediment Yield and River Morphology Studies
3.08 -Climatic Studies for Transmission Line
3.09 -Access Road Studi~s
3.10 -lower Susitna Studies
( i v) Subtask Scope Statements
G
The scheduling of the above subtasks is presented in Section A7,
Plate A7.1. The activities have been specifically scheduled to make
maximum use of the field data as it becomes available and to provide
the necessary input to the other components of the studies.
Arrangements have·been made to enlist the services of Dr. R. ·carlson
to act as consultant to Subtask 3.05 (Flood Studies). We propose to
mak~ simi 1 ar arrangements with Dr. T. E. Osterkamp of the Geophysi ca 1
Institute, University of Alaska to act on the ice engineering
related aspects of Subtasks 3.06 (Hydraulic and Ice Studies) and
3.03 (Field Data Collection and Processing). Contact will also be
made with the U.S.G.S. off"ce in Anchorage to determine what
assistance they can provide both in terms of expert advice on field
equipment selection and operation (Subtask 3.03) as well as
reactivation and generation of some of their discontinued gauging
stations ( Subtask 3.10).
A detailed discussion of the objectives, the approaches and the
costs and schedules associated with the subtasks follows.
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Subtask 3.01 -Review of Avai1ab1e Material
.
(a) Task Objectives .•
Assembly and reVfew of all avai 1 able reports, maps and studies
relating to hydrologic aspects of the Susitna and neighboring basins,
and abstraction of hydrologic design parameters required for the
planning studies concern,::d with alternative hydro sites, including
small hydro development.
{b) Approach
(c)
All available reports, maps and other pertinent documents vlill be
obtained and reviewed. Detailed discussions will be held with
individuals and agencies who have been engaged in the past and who are
currently engaged in studies in the Susitna basin and surrounding
areas, (e.g., staff at the University of Alaska, APA, the Hydrology
Section of the u.s. Corps and the USGS office staff in Anchorage).
0
All information on mean annual flows, seasonal distribution of flow,
reservoir drawdown and firm and installed capacity will be abstracted.
If necessary, manual adjustments will be made to these parameters to
ensure that standardized parameters are available for each site and
that sin~lar approaches are applied to defining firm power and
installed capacity.
This task will be performed jointly by R&M and Acres.
Schedule
Weeks 1 through 26
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Subtask 3.02 -Field Data lndex and Distribution S,ys~em
(a) Ob,jectives
Establish a formal data indexing and distribution system to keep the
study team and all other parties concerned with the project fully
updated on the status of available hydrological and climatologic data ..
(b) Approach
'The field data acquisition requirements for the proposed study are
substantial. A data index describing all the currently available
hydrologic and climatologic data will therefore be compiled. All new
data collected by other organizations within the basin and by the
study team will be added to the index.. It ·fs proposed to update the index every six months ..
Hard copy of the available data will be obtained and stored,. Copies
of se 1 ected items of data vti 11 be dispatched to project team members
and other concerned parties on request. All new field data collected
by the project team will be stored on computer· facilities and/or in
tabulated form. Copies of the information will be issued to those requesting it.
{c) Discussion
It \'lill not be possible to obtain and store hard copy of some of the
detailed climatic data collected at the existing complete meteorologic
stations or from the proposed automate climate stations. Ho\'tever,
provision will be made to access these data files and abstract from
them data in summarized form as required by the project staff.
This work wi 11 be done by R&t~.
(d) Schedule
Setup: Weeks 5 through 13
Operation: Weeks 14 through 130
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' Subtask 3~03 -Field Data Collection and Processing
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{.a) Objective
To supplement the available streamflov1 and climatologic data within
the Susitna River Basin and along the proposed transmission corridors.
{b) Approach
The data collection program outlined in this section has been
speci fica lly tai 1 ored to pro vi de adequate input to the design of the
project and to meet the requirements of the FERC 1 i cens i ng p.rocedure.
-Field Data Specifications
...
It is proposed to produce formal specifications for all the
hydrologic and climatologic field data to be collected. This will
facilitate the detailed planning of the field program and will allow
the various technical disciplines associated with the study to
derive maximum benefit from the data collection program.
During the early stages of the study, data specifications will be
dra\'/n up by a multidisciplinary team responsible for environmental,
hydrologic, hydraulic and ice engineering aspects of the study
during the initial field trips in the area. These specifications
would be submitted to Federal and state agencies for corrrnent to
ensure that maximum benefit is derived from the field program.
The specifications will describe items to be collected, list the
type or equipment to be used, the accuracy to be achieved, the
frequency of the observations and the rate at which the information
is to be processed and published.
Discussions will be held with the consultants to the study based in
the Univev-sity of Alaska to explore the possibility of applying
satellite or high-level aircraft photography to improve accuracy of
estimating the spatial distribution of the snow cover. It should be
noted that no budget has been provided for undertaking this type of
work should it prove feasible.
-Field Data Collection
To ensure that adequate· data is available for the feasibility design
and license application an9 subsequent preliminary engineering~ an
early start must be made with field data collection. A tentative
program has been developed and is sumnarized in Table A.5.1.
Provisional locations of data collection points are shown in Plates
T.S.l. and T.5.2.
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A permanent field cre\'t of t\·to people will be assi ~ned to install and
operate .the equipment and to retrieve the data. Extensive use wi 11
be made of helicopter transport to access the remote stations. A
fixed-wing aircraft will be used in the aerial ice cover surveys and
to service some of the remote sno\'t course and climatic stations.
During the first half of 1981, the field data specifications will be
reviewed and amended in the light of one year•s experience in the
field. It is anticipated that the location of the transmission line
corridor will have been selected and that some of the automatic
climatic, in-cloud icing, and freezing rain stations may have to be
relocated. The additional three automatic climatic stations, as
well as the additional in-cloud icing, freezing rain and sn0\'1 creep
stations will be installed.
-Field Data Processing 0
Field data processing will be concerned with the following:
abstracting and storing information on the charts obtained from
the automatic climatic stations and water level recorders
calculating water and sediment discharges from field
observations
laboratory analyses of water quality and sediment samples
documentation of the ice cover observation program .
documentation of the snow course data, transmission line icing,
freezing rain, snO\~ creep and glacial me~surements.
Some of this data processing wi 11 . be carried out ot1 a computer; the
remainder will be dealt with manually.
A technician will be responsible on a full-time basis for all the
data processing. Additional technical assistance will be available
as and when required.
(c) Discussion
This task will be undertaken by R&M with review by Acres. Important
aspects associated with Table A.5.1 are as follows:
-The program has been based on the assumption that the Devils Canyon
and Watana Dam site will be the selected project sites.
-The initial location of the climatic stations i-;; based in the
assumption that the transmission route \till be located along the
raih~ay linking Fairbanks and Anchorage. Should an alternative
transmission corridor be selected during 1980, the climatic stations
installed along the rail route will be relocated during 198L. This
is not anticipated to cause any delays in the study as the data
obtained during the first year could be used to obtain preliminary
design criteria for the alternative route. Provi sian has been made
in the cost estimates to cope with relocation of the stations ..
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{d)
-An additional five automatic climatic stations will be held in
reserve during the first year. It is intended to utfl ize tvto of
these as spares. The three others W'i 11 be installed dui' i ng 1981
along the selected transmission line to improve estimation of the
spatial variation in design parameters~
-Discussions have been held with the staff responsible for the sno\'1
course surveys at the Soil Conservation Service i·n Anchorage. As a
result the 1 ocations of the additi anal four snow course stations
depicted in Plate A.5.2 were selectedo These di~cussions also
indicated that snow pillows have been operated very successfu 11y and
should function well at the proposed locations. Only a minimum
amount of measurement using conventional snow survey equipment \'fill
be necessary.
-The proposed sediment station at the Vee site (see Plate A5.2) will
not be operated on a continuous basis. A limited number of
observations will be taken and used to assess whether the sediment
discharges at ·vee and Gold Creek are correlated. If these analyses
indicate no correlation, then the sediment observations at Vee will
be increased during Phase 2.
-We do not propose to use bed load samplers during this phase of the
work. Although the Heli-Smith type sampler has been successfully
used by the USGS on the Tanana River, it is doubtful whether it
would operate in the coarse sediments of the Susitna. However, this
aspect will be reviewed once more detailed information on the bed
material is available. If deemed practical and useful, a bedload
sampler could be ·emp-loyed during Phase 2 to firm up estimates of
bedload.
Schedule
Field Data Specifications and Review -Weeks 14 through 22
Weeks 70 through 74
Equipment Installation -Weeks 23 through 35
Weeks 75 through 82
Field Data Collection -Weeks 31 through 130
Fie 1 d Data Processing -\~eeks 36 through 130
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Subtask 3.04 -Water Resources Studies
(a) Objectives
To develop all the necessary water resource parameters such as monthly
flov1 data, design low-flow characterist·ics, etc., at the reservoir
sites and to study long-term reservoir operation.
(b) Approach
(i) Streamflow Extension
Multiple regression analyses will be used to develop monthly
streamflow sequences at the Watana, Devil Canyon and other
sites being considered within the Susitna basin. The aim is to
improve on the correlations previously achieved in the u.s.
Corps of Engineers studies. The gauging station at Gold Creek
(2920) will be used as the master station. However, attempts
will be made to see whether meaningful correlations can be
achieved by using longer-term stations outside -the study area
(e.g., Matanuska River at Palmer, 2840). Both monthly and
annual flo\'/S will be correlated and climatic parameters such as
monthly/annual temperature and preciptation vtill be introduced
to determine whether they improve the correlations.
Extrapolation of mean annual flow and the seasonal ·variation of
flow to ungauged locations will be done using factors developed
from drainage basin area and other physiograpic and climatic
parameters (e.g., area covered by glac·iers, lakes and sv1amps,
mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature). .
Acres wi 11 undertake these analyses.
(ii) Low-Flow Fteguency: Duration Analysis
Utilizing the above information, analyses ltlfll be carried out
to produce curves relating volume of runoff in low-flow periods
of different durations ranging up to several years to the
frequency of occurrence. These curves will be used to
determine firm power and energy from the proposed developments
during specified critical low flow periods.
Acres will undertake these analyses.
(iii) Reservoir Filling and Operation Studies
It is proposed to set up the Acres' multireservoir \"'ater
balance computer model for the Susitna basin. This is. a
particularly versatile model, and allows easy application to
different reservoir systems. Reservoir operation ru1 es are
specified as input data, thus allowing considerable flexibility
in studying alternative rules and priorities. The model can
operate with time periods varying from a week to several
months, and can incorporate powe~ generation and load stacking.
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This model will be used to undertake reservoir operation and
e11ergy generation studies, and the analyses required to
determinej;o!Ofilling schedules. The basic input data to the model
v1ill be derived from the studies discussed in (i) and (ii)
above.
Acres will undertake the work.
{iv) Statistical Analysis of Pre-and
Post-Project Streamflow
Flow duration curves are required for the FERC license
application and the determination of annual sediment yields at
various locations within the basin. Seasonal and annual
dura .. ;_.ion curves will be evaluated using the natural monthly
streamflow data derived in (i) above and for the post-project
flows simulated using output from the multi -reservoir model
discussed in (iii) above.
Recorded natural daily streamflow data at a 1 imited number of
gauging stations within the basin will be utilized to describe
typical flow variations within the calendar months~
Once the project layouts have been finalized, the flow duration
curves described above wi 11 be redeveloped for post-project
f.,low conditions downstream· from the damsites. Based on a
knowledge of the daily plant operating characteristics, the
effects of discharge fluctuations within typical months \'lill be
described.
Acres will undertake the studies.
(v) Ev~poration Studies
Desk studies wi 11 be undertaken to refine the estimate of net
evaporative loss from the reservoir surface area. Based on
available climatic and evaporation data within the Susitna
basin and the vicinity regional estimates of gross evaporation
from an open water surface \vill be made and extrapolated to
the damsites. Available streamflow and precipitation data will
be used (again on a regional basis) to est:fmate the pre-project
evapot ranspi ration rate from the reservoir area and subtracted
from the open \'later evaporation to yi e 1 d the net effect of ·the
reservoir. R&M will undertake these studies.
(vi) Glacial StGdies
The results of field surveys for detecting glacial movement and
the aerial inspections and information obtained from aerial
photographs will be evaluated to determine whether the glacier
was noticably moving and if there was potential for a 1 ake
dump. The USGS studies on the Black Rapids Glacier will be
reviewed and genera 1 information abstracted and used to assist
in this evaluation.
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Should these studies indicate that changes in the glaciers
water and sediment yield could occur~ or that a lake dump could
develoH-.a more comprehensive long-~erm glacia~ obser~ation and
study program \'lOUld be pl~nned for 1mplementat1on dur1ng
Phase 2.
R&M and Acres would jointly undertake this study•
(c) Discussion
The streamflow extension (Section (i)) analyses will be based on
.available streamflow data up to the end of the 1978-1979 year, i.e.,
October 1979o The data obtained during the first 12 months of the
field program will be utilized to check on the validity of the
extrapolation factors used to derive stre&mflow data for ungauged
sites. If deemed necessary, these factors will be revised and the
appropriate adjustments made to the streamflow data.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 21 through 120
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Subtask 3.05 ~ Flood Studies .
(a) Objectives
To provide design flood peaks and hydrographs for design of the
project and for· assessing pre-and post-project flood conditions in
the Susitna River reaches located down and upstream of the Watana and
Devi 1 Canyon damsites.
(b) Approach
(i) Regional Flood Peak and Volume
Frequency Analysis
A localized regional flood peak and flood volume analysis \<Jill
be undertaken for the Matanuska, Susitna {including the Yentna)
and Chakachatna River basin; i.e., the entire Cook Inlet basin.
All gauging stations \'lith periods of records longer than 7 to 8
years and with drainage basin areas larger than approximately
250 square miles will be incorporated in the analysis.
Annual maximum and seasonal maximum flood peaks will be
abstracted from the records. It is proposed to use two
seasons: the season during which significant ice cover is
present and the ice-free season. The flood peak data will be
subjected to frequency analysis using the Log Pearson Type III
distribution (or alternatively the three-parameter Lognormal
distribution which has been found to work \'tell i.n northern
climates). These individual frequency curves will be utilized
to develop regional frequency curves as well as· regression
equations for predicting design flood peaks at ungauged loca-
tions within specified homogeneous flood regions.. The defini-
tion of homogeneous flood regions will be based both on statis-
tical tests (e .. g., Langbein) as well as visual plots of single
station frequency curves.
In developing regression equations, use wi11 be made of physio-
graphic parameters such as drainage basin area, area covered by
glaciers and 1 akes or SNamps, mean late v1inter snow cover, mean
spring temperatures, etc. The results obtained wi 11 be com-
pared to those presented in the broad-based regional study
recently completed by Lanke (USGS, Water Resources Investiga~
t ions 78-129).
A flood-volume frequency analysis will be undertaken for the
streamflovJ records on the Susitna at Gold Creek (2920) and at
Cantwell (2915). A screening process will be undertaken to
determine which of the flood types are the most cri ti ca 1:
-spring floods
high mountain snow melt -rainfall events (June/July)
-summer rainfall eventss
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The annual maximum flood volumes associated v1ith the critical
type wi11 be abstracted from the streamflow data files and
subjected to a frequency analysis. Analyses will also be
conducted to determirie v1hether a relationship exists between
. ~~he ratio of the flood peak to the flood volume and to develop
typical flood hydrograph shapes. The results.of these
calculations will be used to develop design flood hydrographs
for the proposed reservoir sites on the Susitna. Extrapolation
to the ungauged sites will be accomplished by using drainage
area ratios or factors involving other physiographic and
climatic parameters.
R&M would undertake this work and Acres would act in a review
capacity.
(ii) Probable Maximum Flood Determination
The approach adopted by the Corps of Engineers in their
feasibility studies in developing the Probable Maximum Flood
(PMF) is appropriate for this stage of the study. The SSARR
watershed model used was reasonably \•/ell calibrated considering
the paucity of avai 1 ab 1 e data. Reca 1 i brat ion \'IOU1 d not be
warranted until the proposed nev1 climatic stations {Subtask
3.03) have been installed and operated for at least two years ..
It is therefore proposed to undertake a detailed review and
revision of the input parameters to the Corps of Engineers
model. Several runs will then be undertaken with the model to
test for sens iti vi ty of output to changes in input data and to
revise the estimate of the PMF if necessary. The key input
parameters that would be reviev-Jed include:
-probable maximum precipitation
-initial snow cover
-temperature sequence
-loss rates or loss functions.
It is assumed that the consultants would have access to the
Corps of Engineers model in rerunning the SSARR model.
Acres will undertake this work.
(iii) Reservoir Flood Routing
In-house computer programs \'Jill be used to route design floods
through the proposed reservoir system. These studies will be
used to size the required service and emergency spi 11 \'Jays and
to produce the dovmstream post-project flood hydrographs
required for the dovmstream \'tater level and ice studies
(Subtask 3.06).
Acres will undertake this work ..
{c) Discussion
During Phase 2, more extensive analyses vlill be undertaken to firm up
the design flood estimations {see Section A~7). This will :h1clude
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reca 1 ibration of the SSARR model or, if deemed more appropriate, the
application of an alternative computer model such as the more
sophisticated Hydrologic Simulation Package (HSP) developed by
Hydrocomp or the National Weather Service model.
(d) Schedule
\{eeks 21 through 120
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Subtask3.06 -Hydraulic and Ice Studies
(a) O.bj ect i ve
The determination of water levels and ice cover conditions upstream
and downstream from the project sites under flood and low-flo~/
conditions corresponding to pre-and post~project conditions.
(b) Approach
Computer model simulations will be carried out to compute the pre-
project to predicted post-project conditions and to provi.de input to
the civil layout and system operation studies. This will ensure that
potential problems such as the maintenance of a stable ice cover, ice
jamming-and flooding, etc. can be dealt \'JiJh during the project
planning and design process. The results of the studies \'till also be
utilized in the environmental studies (Task 7) to assess potential
environmental impacts.
(i) River Channel Water Levels and Flows
We propose to utilize the following three basic computer
programs to study the water level and ice regime in the Susitna
River from just upstream of the Watana site to Talkeetna.
HEC-2 -(Acres modified version, incorporating an ice cover)
-Ice Cover Process Model -This is a computer program which
has been developed in-house by Acres specifically for
hydropower generation studies in northern climates. It
simulates the growth and decay of a stable ice cover on a
channel containing flowing water.
-One-Dimensional Dynamic Flow Model -Acres has several
in-house versions of this program which is capable of
s imu 1 at i ng the dynamic response of a channel to a time
varying flow input.
All of the above models are one-dimensional flow models.
Table A5.2 indicates which of the Susitna River reaches these
models will be applied to and the purpose of the simulations to
be carried out. ·
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The ice cover observations and the ice cover thickness and
strength measurements undertaken by the ·Geophysical Institute
and made during the course of this study will be utilized for:
-calibrating the ice cover process model
-determining typical ice cover conditions to be simulated with
the backwater program (HEC-2)
-assessing where potential ice jams could occur •
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The studies outlined in Table A5.2 deal with the Susitna River
·only as far downstream as Talkeetna. It is proposed to use a
less rigorous approach to assess the effects of the proposed
project on flow in -the river channel dovmstream from Talkeetna
(see Subtask 3.10). Should these analyses indicate that more
... detailed studies are required, they will be done during Phase
2.
As soon as the topographic survey information of the Susitna
reaches concerned becomes available and sufficient water level
observations are obtained (Subtask 3o03), the fl0\'1 models will
be set up and calibrated~ The simulation exercise will then
follow and continue on through the project design studies
(Task 6).
Acres and R&M wi 11 jointly undertake the foregoing studies.
R&M will concentrate on the river Feach downstream from the
Devil Canyon damsite as this aspect could be usefully combined
with flood-plain mapping work they may be undertaking in the
area.
A<: res \'li 11 direct the work undertaken by R&M.
(ii) Reservoir Freeboard
The required reservoir freeboard for wind conditions will be
evaluated. The wind data collected in the basin during the
first 18 months v1ill be utilized to extrapolate design wind
conditions to the reservoir sites.
Acres will undertake this work.
{iii) Slide Induced Reservoir Surge
It is proposed to undertake a 1 i teratu re review of previous
work done in this·area. Of particular interest ~ttill be the
mathematical and physical modeling work done by B.C. Hydro on
the Downie slide and Revelstoke dam and their work on the Mica
slide. Information obtained from this review plus the results
of the reservoir seismic studies (Task 4) will be used to
assess the nature and magnitude of the potentia 1 prob 1 ems and
to establish some preliminary design criteria. Should further
detailed study be necessary, a suitable methodology and scope
of work would be developed for application in Phase 2.
Acres will undertake this work.
(iv) Reservoir Temperature Regime
An in-house computer model will be utilized to simulate the
vertical temperature stratification within tile proposed reser-
voirs for a typical year. This model vlill be calibrated
·according to·our experience v1ith such mode.ls, other studies on
simi 1 ar projects, and uti 1 i zing the results of simi 1 ar work
being conducted at the University of Alaska.
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Output from this model will be utilized to assist in the
selection of the levels of the offtakes for the discharge
structures and to predict changes in the dovmstream \IJater
temperatures.
Acre; will undertake the work.
{d) Discussion ·
The foregoing a·pproach, particularly the application of the back\'later
program incorporating an ice cover and the ice~cover process model,
has been developed based on our extensive experience with design of
hydroelectric facilities in northern climates, particularly on the
Nelson River in ~1anitoba. The type of problems we anticipate \'lith ice
in the Susitna project and the methods that could be -adopted· to deal
with them are discussed in Section A2.
(e) Schedule
Weeks 40 through 120
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Subtask 3 •. 07 -Sediment Yield and River t4orpho 1 ogy Studi e!
(a) Objective
Determination of the rate of sediment accumulation in the propose·d
reser·voi rs and prediction of the effects on the downstream river
channel morphology.
(b) Approach
_ {i) Sediment Yield and Deposition
The u.s. Corps of Engineers total_ sediment yield studies des-
cribed in the 1975 feas ibi 1 ity report vii 11 be updated by incor-
porating all new data on sediment d-fscharge that have since
become available. A literature revie\t/ will be undertaken to
confirm the reservoir trap efficiency figures used and to
develop an appreciation of the spatial distribution of the
deposited sediment in the reservoir. State-of-the-art settle-
ment theory wi 11 be used to determine average sediment concen-
tration in the reservoir at various times of the year. This
latter information will be required to determine the quality of
the water released from the reservoir.
(ii) River ~1orpholog,x
A thorough review of previous work done in the Susitna Basin and
other Alaskan rivers and available field data for the Susitna
River will be undertaken.. An air photo mosaic will be prepared
for the reach between Devil Canyon and Ta 1 keetna. Historical
photographs wi 11 be studied to assess past regime changes both
in the main river channel and the tributaries.
Studies will be und2rtaken to determine a suitable regime-type
equation. With the aid of this formula and input from the
reservoir simulatior. studies (Subtasks 3.04 and 3.05) expect,ed
morphologic changes v1i 11 be assessed. The more pronounced
changes will be illustrated on the air photo mosaic.
(c) Discussion
The reservoir sediment calculations will be revised during Phase 2,
once several seasons of additional field data have become available.
The state of the art in modelling the distribution of deposited
sediment is not yet sufficiently advanced to produce reliable
estimates of the spatial distribution of sediment within a reservoir,
unless extensive calibration studies are undertaken and a large amount
of field data is available. During Phase 2 of the study an assessment
\1ill be. made as to the adequacy of the available data to calibrate
such a model, and a decision will be made \'Jhether or not to undertake
such modelling. ·
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R&M wiJ 1 undertake th.e v/ork described in this subtask and Acres \1ill
act in a revie\'1 function.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 40 through 120
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Subtask 3.08 -Climatic Studies for Transmission Line
(a} Objective
To provide climatologic design criteria fr/r the design of transmission
lines. These include ice-cover thickness and wind speed.
(b) Approach
Preliminary design criteria will be evaluated during the early stages ·
of the study. Utilizing available climatic information and experience
obtained in other northern transmission line projects, design para-
meters will be established; i.e., wind speeds, icing conditions
(frequency and thickness of accumulation) and temperature conditions.
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Input will be obtained from an experienced stnff meteorologist to
assist.in developing these parameters. An attempt will be made to
develop a general pe.rception of the spatial variation. in these
parameters for input to the transmission-line route-s,election
studies.
During the second year of the study, as the climatic field data
becomes available, a more detailed approach will be adopted to confirm
the design criteria~ An in-cloud icing model is available in the
Acres computer library and has been used to calculate ice loads for
the design of a transmission line from Ocean Falls to Kemano in
northern British Columbia.
We will use this model to predict ice cover thickness for specified
design climatic conditions. A check on model accuracies will be made
by comparing mode 1 results with measured ice accumulations from the
Field Data Collection Program (Subtask 3 .. 03) and using data from other
sources such as the in-cloud ice accumulation data which is available
(4 years, 42 events) for Mclean Mountain, British Columbia.
Determination of freezing rain accumulation will be based on the data
collected in the field and obtained from other sources such as the
first order meteorological stations in Alaska, the Yukon and northern
British Columbia.
Acres will undertake this subtask.
(c) Discussion
to estimate risks of combined wind and ice loads for various return
periods, two meteoro 1 ogi cal events must be considered. On the routing
sections which would carry the line to high elevations, in-cloud ice
accumulation is likely to represent the most severe condition. Nhere
the line would follow valley floors, freezing rain or drizzle \'lOUid
result in maximum loads. In-cloud icing produces rime accumulation
having a density of about 0.6 g/cm3, as does the occurrence of
freezing drizzle. Freezing rain results in glaze icing with a density
of about 0.9 gfcm3.
{d) Schedule
Preliminary Des~"'"'l1 Parameters -Weeks 14 through 25
Detai 1 ed Studies ~'").eks 70 through 82
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Subtask 3 .. 09 -Access Road Studies
{a} Objectiv.~
To provide the necessary design fl oo~ peaks and to eva 1 uate the cap a ...
city of the required hydraulic structures such as bridges and cul-,
verts.
{b) Ap_eroach
For design floods associated with lar.ger basins, the-results of the
rflgional flood studi'es {Subtask 3.05)wi11 be used. For the smaller
catchments measured flood flows from small catchments will be utilized
to develop regi anal flood peak telat ionshi ps. Summer rai nfa11 stat is-
ties will be evaluated and utilized with a rational type formula to
calculate design summer flood peaks.
{c) Discussion
Hydraulic calculations; using standard techniques and design curves
will be employed to evaluate the necessary size of the hydraulic
structures. Bridge size and abutment shapes and alignments will be
determined so as to minimize the effect on the drainage of water and
general and local scour'!'
R&M would perform this subtask.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 52 through 100
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Subtask 3 .. 10 -LovJer Susitna Studies
(a) -Objective
To estimate the flo\·1 regime, sediment reg·h'ile and morphological
characteristics of the lov1er Susitna River under natural conditions,
and a preliminary determination of morphological impacts which could
result from flow regulation and sediment trapping at the Susitna
project. -
(b) Approach
This task will comprise the three fo 11 ov1i ng components:
(i) Flow and Sediment Measurements
Assessment of impacts on the Susitna River below Talkeetna
requires basic information on the proportion of flow and
sediment which is contributed from the area above the proposed
dams. Although this can be estimated approximately by
analytical methods based on the sparse records available, it
\1i 11 be confirmed by direct field measurements.. In addition to
the existing u .. s.G.s. gauging station on the Susitna River
bel 0\'1 the confluence with the Yentna River, it is proposed to
select three additional gauging sites on consultation with the
Department of Natural Resources sites in consultation with the
Depa-rtment of Natural Resources (DNR). It is tentatively
envisaged that these \.Yill be located on the following sites:
(1)
(2)
(3)
Chulitna River near Talkeetna (see Plate T3.1)
Susitna River bet\-Jeen the Parks Highway Bridge and the
Delta Islands
Yentna River near the Susitna confluence.
Measurement of river discharge_, water levels, water
temperatures, and suspended sediment concentration will be
conducted for a period of at least one year. This will provide
information for estimating the natural contribution of flow ahd
sediment from the basins upstream of the project sites to the
lower Susitna reaches on a seasonal basis.
(ii) _River Observations and Aerial· Photographs
A potential impact of flow regulation on the highly graded
lower Susitna River is the dewatering of side channels and
sloughs which may be good fish habitats. To be able to assess
this potential impact, the following additional informati.on
will be collected:
-aeri aJ photography -of the river from the mouth to Talkeetna
aerial observations a·nd oblique photographs of the river
under various conditions:
-before a•nd during spring-breakup
-at various flow magnitudes during the summer
-before and during the ice formation period.
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(iii) Interpretation of.Data
-
The data collected on the lo\'1er Susitna River will be analyzed
in conjunction with the flow regulation and sediment studies
described in Subtask 3. 04, Water Resources Studies, and 3~ 07,
Sediment Yield and River ~1orphology Studies.
A preliminary evaulation of the potential morphological
changes, and impact on the river characteristics due to flow
regulation will be made during the early part of 1981. If
considered necessary at this stage, an expanded field data
collection and study program aimed at evaluating impacts in
more detail will be developed in conjunction \'lith the DNR and
presented for consi deration to APA. . Shaul d an expanded program
not he necessary the program outlined here will be continued
and the preliminary assessments completed by the end of the
study period.
R&M will undertake the work and Acres will act in a review
capacity.
(c) Discussion
The lower Susitna River is an important multi -purpose resource which
must be considered jn_planning the Susitna ~Project. However, at this
point in the study, it is considered prudent to minimize the level of investigation until
(1) The power stqdies confirm that the Susitna project is indeed the
best alte~i1ative for Rai lbelt power requirements.
(2) Project studies have progress~<i to the point where definite
regulatory patterns and effects on sediment transport can be
identified.
{3) Preferred areas of fish habitat in the lO\'Ier Susitna River have
been identified (see Subtask 7.10, Fish Ecological Baseline
Studies and Analysis).
(4) Better kno\tledge on the morphological effects of the project on
the upper Susitna River is obtained.
This subtask has been developed after extensive discussions with DNR ..
{d) Schedule
Weeks 31 through 126 •
Station Tvr..!
t·: .. 1t2r 1 eve 1
5
Sedirn.:nt di schars2
~rrJtJ course
Hater ,,,.J 1 ity
Cl in:.ttic
(dUlti:~.tL tr)
-.. ---------~ -
.;:..;
TftBLE A5.1 -PROPOSED HYOROLOOIC FIELD DATA COllECTION PRCffiPM
f•12asurc-d Paraneters Tirre Bet\-Jeen
Para:reter I,Ype of EqUl preiit Observations
Hater level Olart or tape recorder Continuous
Hater discharge Cable way or boat am SUllliX::r: 2-4 \..eeks
current rreter Winter: 2-3 rronths
\4ater level Staff gaug:! ard p::ak Sumrer: 2-8 \ms
level irrlicator Winter: 2 roonths
Suspended sediment Sus~rded sedi rrent As for vater
concentration sampler discha~
Bed naterial size
Sna1 pack depth Conventional sno.'l survey 2-4 w=eks during
ard vmter equiva-equi pn~nt ard/ or snow winter rmnths
lent pillovs
· turbidity .. , con-
Ten~rature, j Field nEasuring equi!lTEnt SumEr: 1 rronth
Winter: 2-3 rronths
ductivity,
dissolved oxygen,
pll
Alkalinity
CeQ
) Grab samp 1 es qrx:i 1 abor-
) atmy analysis in field
camp
fts above
Total am ortho } Grab samples arrl labora-As above
phosphorus •)1 tory analysis in
T ota 1 arrl kj e 1 dahl ) Anchorage
nitrogen )
Total dissolved )
ard suspa'd~ )
solids )
Trace ITetal s )
~~irrl speed an:i Autanatic \\eather Continuous
direction station
Relative l'unidity
TeJP=rature
Rain/sfl0\1 (umeated
gaugG)
flllE Bet\~
Station
Visits
Sunner: 2-4 Vle€ks
Winter: 1 JrOnth
Jls in previous
column
As in rrevious
colurrn
As in previ oos
colum
Sl.lllller: 1 oonth
Winter: 2-3 rronths
As cbove
fts above
MJnthly
Nt.rrt:er of Stations I nsta 11 ed Typ: (ard Quantity) Qff
' 1980 1981 f•laj or Equi prent to be fPJ.IrChased
3 {2 n5'/ at project sites,
reactivate USGS Station
2915 on tre Susitna River)
8
4 (3 involve supplerrentary
m2asurenents at USGS stations
l910!t 2912, 2920) ..
4
3
6
l'bne
' . . . ~ .
l~ater 1eve1 recorders; ({:S + 1 spare)
Current neters ( 2)
Boats (2)
Cable ways (2)
Ice au~rs {2)
None Staff gauges
Peak level irrlicators
None SusJ:Errled sErlirrent san};il~rs (3)
Be:l. naterial sm1plers ~2)
tt>ne ·conventional sra~ suN~ ~uiprrent
(1 set). Snow plllO\·&
1
3
(4 + 1 sp:tre)
r1eters ( 1 set)
Titration kit
Freezirg e:tuiprrent in field
canp (1)
Autanatic \\eather statim-is
(9 + 2 SJXlre)
t·~asured Tine Bet~reen
Observations
f1n-e Betva:n
Station
Visits
Nunber of Stations Insta 11 ed TY[;e ( an:f Quantity J <Of
1980 1!£1' · · f'/kljor E ui >2nt to he Purchased
Clii.i,..tic
{auc<..A:It:: ic uith
b . .;:Jtt~d ~.:..us~ plus
s~~ .~ ·~ ~ 1.is2rv~r~
ififv,ta~tion)
In cloud icing
2
~\.:e LO',...;r'
( Gt \,.t.:fd SUt"\"e.y)
.....
..)
· 1 ce cuvt.:r
'·{l\t.!t"i ,11 sw·vt::y}
~araaeter · ··
Ps cbove7 plus
solar radiation
Evaporation r:an
VisilliTity
(heated gJ.uge)
Ice buildup on a
transmi ssicn 1 i r)2
Ice buildup during
a precipitation
event
Snov1 creep
Ice thickness
Ice <XllJpatence
Autanatic v.eather
station plus sare
cbserver infonnation
Short section of trans-
mission line,
6 feet 1 ong rrounta:f
5 feet move ground
Horizontal steel plate,
SnovJ markers ard survey
equiprnnt
2-5 aug=r ool es for
rreasurarent
Visual insp€Ction ard/or
penetraneter device
Continuous Daily
G11y during or iiTilltdi-Srnradic
ate ly after icing
corditions
C\1ly during or i~Tfraii-Sjl)radic
ate ly after freezing
rain
2-4 weeks d.tri ng
winter m:mths
Suurer:. none
Winter: 1 nnnt."'t
Monthly during
winter nnnths
StJTIDer: rone
~Ji nter: 1 rronth
Extent of ice
cover
Vi sua 1 an:t photographic During break-up
records ~ri od -ore to
several dws
Location of ice
jans
Ic2 surgin9/ Survey, visual &
rL:x:ession & glacial J)lotographic records
surface features
During freeze-up
reriod -weekly
T\\0 nonths TvJO nonths
1
3
3
3
8-12
{lkocot~d Jt the r.:enmnent \4atana field camp. .
{2)LocJtiorls to te finn~! up after initial field trips ard review of field data collected by GeoPhYsical Institute, University of Alaska •
.... fu1t icir,tte 6-8 stations oo the. Susitna River arrl 2-4 on important tributaries.. ·
{{J))f\5 h;,.' Note 2.. J\nticipate to rover entire reach fran NacLaren -Susitna River junction to .confluence of Cilllitna River.
~ IL is ossun.:rl that the existing cable at Vee can oo upgradec! for use.
(o)rt is. porposed to undertake only sporadic units to the station at VCC (i.t:. at ~~ 291G).
2
2
5
0-4
Srort sect ion of t.r~tmssion
lire
Steel p 1 ates
Soot markers
Ice penetrometer
Carera f!:}Ui pnent
Survey rrarkers ·
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TABLE A5~2
PROPOSED APPLICATION OF
ONE:DIMENSIONAL FLOW MODELS
TO THE SUSITNA RIVER
Study River
No. Reach Model
1 Upstream Of HEC-2, Ice Cover
Watana Process Mode 1
2 Watana Dam HEC-2, Ice Cover·
site to Process Model
Talkeetna
3 Watana Dam Site HEC-2, Ice Cover
to Devil Can-Process Model
yon site
4 Devils Canyon HEC-2, Ice Cover
site to Process Mode 1,
Talkeetna Dynamic Flow Mode 1
5 Watana· and HEC-2, Ice Cover
Devil Canyon Model Process
site during
the diversion
stage of con-
struction
NOTES:
The word 11 tegime 11 implies the follov1ing:
-ice cover -nature and timing of growth
-stability
-decay and jamming
-water level -low flow conditions
-flood flow conditions
Purpose of
Si_mul at ions
To study the establishment
of the stable ice cover on
the Watana Reservoir
To study the ice cover and
water level regime down-
stream of Watana prior to
construction of Devil
Canyon Dam and to calculate
tailwater rating curves
To study the ice cover
regime at the Devil Canyon
Reservoir
To study the ice cover and
water 1 evel regime in the
reach be 1 0\'1 De vi 1 Canyon
and to calculate tailwater
rating curves
To design an adequate
diversion system
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":1
N
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);011 "'·' "'·-"''"· • ••
. DEVIL
2920 CANYON D.C.
'1.
_,.. ·'1.,..--/\_ _,.."\... ( '--..."
0 e-
MILES
10 ;;;; 20
G77iJ
\
l'\..
' '
·~ •-, ~ '•I "' : -~~ ... 1'\';J.>.:,~--• ,, •• ~ ''!:'f··i! " t..,
.;_; ~~ -.~_ .... _:';~ ... ---... ' i" ..:..-. .. .., ..... ,~.' ..... ' ·q -. ~"--··
\
PROPOSED DAMSlTES
A
EXJSTlNG STATIONS
II U.S.G.S. GAGING STATION
8 SNOW COURSE
PROPOSED STATIONS
Q SNOW COURSE
0 STREAMFLOW GAGING
V WATER LEVEl~
\
-* SEDIMENT DISCHARGE
$ WATER QUALITY
' l,
)
·~
~
\ I \ . . r-6 ...__v i,......_,..., . . . .
SUSfTNE
LA I<£
SUSITNA . HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
PLATE T3 .. I-:PROPQS:EO DATA COLLECTION STATIONS
IN TH.E SUSITNA BASlN-1980
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A.5.5 -TASK 4: SEISMIC STUDIES
(i) Task Objectives
To determine the earthquake ground motions which will provide the
seismic design criteria for the major structures associated with the
Susitna Hydroelectric Project, to undertake preliminary evaluations
of the seismic stability of proposed earth-rockfi11 and concrete
dams, to assess the potential for reservoir induced seismicity and
_1andsl ides, and to identify soils which are susceptible to seismi-
cally-induced failure along the proposed transmission line and
access road routes.
(ii) Task Output
The data collection programs and studies outlined in this task will
be sufficiently comprehensive for FERC license applications.
Thorough presentations of conclusions, evaluations and data are also
desirable for projects that are being carefully reviewed by permit-
ting agencies. Complete reporting of the seismic geology and
sei.smology investigations will be made with this philosophy as a
guide. This task wi 11 be conducted primarily by Hoodvmrd Clyde
Consultants with review by Acres and field support by R&M
Consultants. The ground motion study data will be utilized in Task
6 for design studies. Identification of seisimically susceptible
soils for the road and transmission routes will be inputs to Task 2
and 8 studies. Field activities will be coordinated with the Task 5
activities.
The primary products of this task will include:
-Technical reports containing thorough documentation of all work
done during the first year.
-Final technical reports containing thorough documentation for all
studies during the first two yearso
-Monthly management reports during the course of the investigation.
The technical reports will be accompanied by geologic maps showing
locations of all controlling features~ fault lines, etc.
Hanagement reports will deal with technical and financial progress
with respect to plan.
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{iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 4.01 -Review of Available Data
Subtask 4.02 -Short-term Seismologic Monitoring Program
Subtask 4.03 -Preliminary Reservoir Induced Seismicity
Subtask 4.04 -Remote Sensing Image Analysis
Subtask 4.05 -Seismic Geblogy Reconnaissance
Subtask 4.06 -Evaluation and Reporting
Subtask 4.07 -Preliminary Ground Motion Studies
Subtask 4.08 -Preliminary Analysis of Dam Stability
Subtask 4.09 -Long-term Seismologic Monitoring Program
Subtask 4.10 -Reservoir Induced Seismicity ·
Subtask 4.11 -Seismic Geology Field Studies
Subtask 4.12 -Evaluation and Reporting
Subtask 4.13 -Ground Motion Studies
Subtask 4.14 -Dam Stability
Subtask 4.15 -Soil Susceptibility to Seismically-
Induced Failure
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
Task 4 activities will be crucial in establishing the safety of
dams and other structures under potential earthquake or induced
seismicity conditions .. The FERC license application for the
se 1 ected Susi tna project components must demonstrate convincingly
that the maximum credible earthquake has been identified and the
major structures have been properly designed to safely cope with
such conditions ..
Ta.sk 4 activites will be initiated imnediately upon conmencement of
studies and will be designed to provide an effective basis for
design of dams and other structures prior to submission of the FERC
license application.
Task 4 activities have been subdivided into a total of fifteen
packages arranged to include a program of field and office studies
and installation of a monitoring system to adequately satisfy the
most stringent requirements of dam safety. These activities will
be appropriately coordinated with parallel geotechnical exploration
and dam desi gR efforts.
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Subtask 4.01 -Review of Available Data
(a) Objective
To acquire, compile and review existing data and identify the
earthquake setting of the Susitna River basin area.
· (b) Approach
Data obtained under this subtask will be used to plan the details of
the seismologic investigations (Subtasks 4.02, 4.03, 4.09 and 4.10)
and the seismic geology field reconnaissance (Subtask 4.05). Avail-
able geological, seismological, and geophysical data for the region
will be gathered from sources such as Woodward-Clyde files, the
Department of Geologic and the Geophysical Institute of the Uni~Jer
sity of Alaska, the Alaska Geological Survey, the U.s. Geological
Survey and the major colleges and universities involved in research
pertinent to the project. In addition, researchers with on-going
programs of study will be contacted and the current status of their
r-esearch will be obtained by discussions and written correspondence.
The acquisition of geological data will be concentrated on structural
features of the earth that may represent major active faults. The
geomorphic expressions of these features will also be identified from
the available data.
Geophysical data regarding the structure of the ea.rth will be acquir-
ed and reviewed. Regional gravity and magnetic data are particularly
useful in identifying major discontinuities in the crust of the
earth. These discontinuities may be along faults that could produce
large earthquakes and surface fault ruptures. lf available, other
types of geophysical data such as seismic refraction, seismic reflec-
tion and electrical resistivity may also be of use in identifying
major active faults.
Seismological data will be acquired for the project area. This data
includes historical information on past earthquakes, instrumental
data from the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska 31 and
regional instrumental data from the u.s. Geological Survey~
The geological, s,eismological and geophysical data will be compiled
in order to obtain a thorough current knowledge of the tectonics of
the Susitna River area. The end product will consist of maps that
identify faults, lineaments, and epicenter clusters or alignments
identified by others. These maps will provide a basis for the pro-
posed geological and seismological studies. ·
In addition to the data acquired for the project area, data relating
·to rese·rvoi r-i nduced seismicity will also be compiled. The wor1 d-
wide data on reservoir-induced seismicity will provide a partial
basis for evaluating whether or not induced earthquakes may be gener-
ated in the Susitna River area. Woodward-Clyde Consultants has an
extensive file on world-wide data on reservoir-induced earthquakes,
and is currently being retained for further research in,reservoir-
induced seismicity by the U.S. Geological Survey ..
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The specific products of this subtask include:
-Historical earthquake map and catalog
A catalog of reported earthquakes with magnitude 4.0 and larger
from 1899 to the present will be prepared for the region within 200
miles of the site. For the larger earthquakes in the period~ the
geologic and engineering effects will be discussed. Data quality
as a function of time will be evaluated to estimate the complete-
ness level of the catalog with respect to magnitude, focal depth
and spatial location.
-Summary of recent regional monitoring
Microearthquake monitoring by the University of Alaska Geophysical
Institute and the u.s. Geological Survey will be reviewed and sum-
mary plots of seismicity data will be prepared. Results and inter-
pretations based on-these data will be reviewed with appropriate
personnel in governmental and academic organizations. Of particu-
1 ar importance is evaluat.ion of the accuracy of focal depth deter-
minations based on these network studies.
-Tectonic model ·
Based on available seismologic and geologic data, a preliminary
kinematic tectonic model will be developed for the region within
approximately 200 miles of the site. This mode.l will be modified
as needed by studies in 1 ater subtasks and will provide the basis
for understanding the interrelated geologic source areas for future
earthquake activity in the A.laskan interior. Applications and
implications of seismic gap theory will be considered.
(c) Discussion
The seismicity and seismic sources of the Alaskan interior have only
recently begun to be studied in significant detail. Int.erest in the
seismicity of continental Alaska was stimulated by the major 1964
earthquake and involved the initiation of regional microearthquake
monitoring and the augmentation of geological investigations to
improve understanding of the tectonics of Alaska.
The seismological environment of the Susitna Project is characterized
by two major earthquake sources:
-shall ow earthquake activity occurring along crusta 1 faults such as
the Dena 1 i fault!) with depth of focus 1 ess than approximately 12
miles; and
-earthquake activity in a Benioff zone which has a depth range of 30
to 90 miles and is asso.c.iated with the. subduction of the Pacific
plate beneath Alaska.
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,;.
Geological studies are used, along with seismological data, to inves-
tigate the shallow earthquak~ sources. The deeper-focus earthquake
sources are not directly expressed at the earth's surface and must be
investigated using sei smo logical data combined with a kinematic
understanding of the present-day tectonic activity of the Alaskan
interior~ The occurrence of past large earthquakes within the
region~ such as the 1904 and 1912 magnitude 1 to 8 earthquakes, indi-
cates that both the shallow and deeper seismic zones may have the
potential for generating earthquakes with ground motions significant
to the project.
The Susitna River area is within a zone of active seismicity that
extends from the Aleutian trough on the south into central and
northern interior Alaska. Woodward-Clyde Consultants has previously
conducted regional studies of seismic geology and seismicity over
broad regions of Alaska~ The past regional evaluations have been for
the Trans-A 1 ask a Pipe 1 i ne System, the proposed Offshore Continental
Shelf regions surrounding Alaska, and for the proposed Alcan Gas
Pipeline. These past regional studies pr-ovide data regarding the
earthquake sources in Alaska~ and they also provide up-to-date know-
1 edge of the current status of research in the area.
(d) Schedule ·
Weeks 0 through 22
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Subtask 4.02 -Short-ter.n Seismologic Monitoring Program
(a) Objective
Establish initial monitoring system, obtain and analyze basic seismo-
logic data ~n potential earthquake sources within the Susitna River
area and supply information required to implement a more thorough
long-term monitoring program (Subtask 4.09).
{b) Approach
This subtask involves two major packages of work:
(1} Analysis of Existing Data
Further limited analysis of existing regional earthquake data
will be undertaken to enable sufficiently accurate and appropri-
ate selection of maximum earthquake sources and associated
attenuation relationships. Source studies will be carried out
on several of the largest historical earthquakes, including the
1904 and 1912 events, in order to constrain their location,
local depth and causative geological structure. The maximum
earthquake potentia 1 of the subduction z.one beneath the Sus itna
site is poorly understood, and it will be of significant value
to use the historical data to properly characterize this source.
These studies will also be directed to the evaluation of the
seismic attenuation characteristics of deeper earthquakes to
enable the proper utilization of the results of the Alaskan
OASES study by Woodward-Clyde Consultants {1978) and other
sttidies in selecting appropriate attenuation relationships
required for Subtask 4.07 and 4.13.
(2) Establishment of a Monitoring Network
Since the study area is in a remote but seismically active area
additional detailed earthquake source data will .be collected by
installing and operating a localized microearthquake recording
network.
The net\'!Ork will be established and operated during the sunmer
of 1980. The area covered will include the region within
approximately 30 miles of the dam sites.· Eight to ten recorders
with station spacing of 5 to 10 miles will be installed to
record microearthquake activity down to magnitude of 1.0 or
less. Low-power radio telemetery will be used to make the. field
. operation as efficient as possible. Helicopter support will be
used for installation and maintenance. o
Initial station deployment will be guided by the information
obtained during the data review (Subtask 4.01). It will be
required to monitor known significant geologic features, such as
the Susitna fault.
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During the course of the study~ some of the stations may be
moved to study specific areas of activity. Data analysis will
be carried out to 1 ocate active seismic sources and evaluate
' their spatial extent and focal depth. These analyses will also
be used to establish causative stress orientations based on
focal mechanism studies, to evaluate seismic attenuation, and to
evaluate the statistical features of the microearthquake
activity •
Specific results to be obtained relative to source and wave
propagation assessment include the association of larger earth-
quakes (such as the 1904 and 1912 events) with probable source
structures~ depth determination of the Benioff Zone of deeper
seismic activity and attenuation characteristics of subduction
zone earthquakes. Seismic source location in terms of maximum
earthquake potential in the Benioff Zone will be performed.
Com pari sons wi 11 be made with seismic activity in other compar-
able tectonic areas to assess attenuation and maximum earthquake
potential. The scope of these studies will be modiffed as
necessary on the basis of the results obtained as the work
progresses.
Liaison will be maintained with data collection by the Univer-
sity of Alaska Geophysical Institute and the u.s. 'Geological
Survey. The recording period is initially planned as three
months; however, if this should need to be modified, appropriate
reconrnendations will be made during the course of the study.
{c). Discussion
The present location and focal mechanism level using the Geophysical
Institute· netvlork is approximately magnitude 2-1/2 or 1 arger. The
_data obtai ned from the proposed monitoring program will supplement
the existing regional network operations and will provide needed
accuracy and detection threshold. In addition, the results obtained
will provide the information needed to accurately site the long-tenm
network stations (Subtask 4.09) and to select appropriate instrumen-
tation. They will also aid in planning the seismic geology recon-
naissance (Subtask 4.05). ·
(d) Schedule
Weeks 21 through 52
.
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Subtask 4.03 -Preliminary Reservoir Induced Seismicitj'
(a) Objective
Evaluate the potential for the possible future occurrence of
reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) in the Susitna Project area.
(b) .Approach
The results of this evaluation wiil be used to establish scenarios of
possible outcomes of the occurrence reservoir induced seismicity.
Woodward-Clyde Consultants has recently completed a major analysis of
geologic, sei smol ogic and hydrologic factors associated with past
cases of reservoir-induced seismicity. The results of this study
also will be applied to the known factors for the Susitna project in
order to statistically relate the Susitna Project to the potential
for RIS. The resulting potential will be evaluated in terms of
possible scenarios for the occurrence of induced activity, and the
possible outcome of such occurrences will be discussed.
This analysis will result in a quantitative assessment of the poten'-
tial for the occurrence of reservoir-induced seismicity as a result
of the damming of the Susitna River. A comparison will be made of
depth, volume, regional stress, geologic setting and faulting at the
Susitna dam sites with the same parameters as the world's deep and/
or very large reservoirs. Based on this comparison, the probabitity
of reservoir-induced seismicity at the Susitna darn sites will be
assessed.
A description of known cases of RI.S emphasizing the relationship
between filling of the reservoir and the length of time to the f'ii .. st
and largest earthquakes and the relevance of these data to the
Susitna darn sites will be discussed.
Scenarios will be presented that discuss possible courses of action
that can be taken if RIS is anticipated or detected during filling of
the reservoir.
(c) Discussion
The activities associated with this task will be closely coordinated
with the hydraulic studies aimed at assessing the potential impact on
the reservoir water level of a reservoir-induced slide. (See Subtask
3. 06}.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 23 through 50
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§._ubtask 4.04 -Remote Sensing ImaQe Analysis
(a) Objective
Select and interpret available remote sensing imagery to identify
topograph-ic features that may be associated with active faulting ..
(b) Approach
Data-obtained under this subtask will be used during the Seismic
Geology Reconnaissance (Subtask 4.05) and the Seismic Geology Field
Studies (Subtask 4.11) to identify youthful faults that may produce
future earthquakes and future surface fault ruptures. Remote sensing
imagery and aerial photography relevant to approximately 100 km ·
radius about the dam site will be selected for a lineament analysis.
This remote sensing data includes available Landsat, SLAR (side-
landing airborne radar), Skylab photography; high altitude U-2, or
RB-57 color infrared photographs, and black-and-wh:ite aerial photo-
graphs. The remote sensing and high altitude imagery and aerial
photographs wi11 be interpreted in terms of the geology, geomorpho-
logy and structure of the study region.
Interpretation will help to identify lineaments and other features
that may be related to active faults. Seismicity clusters and
alignments identified during the se-ismicity evaluation in Subtask
4.02 will be compared with the lineaments identified by the imagery
interpretation and the known faults on existing maps to assess the
possible relationship of the epicentral locations, surficial linea-
ments and mapped faults.. The imagery interpretation will be conduc-
ted by geologists experienced in lineament evaluation and in the
recognition of features associated with active faults. It will be
important to di sti ngui sh these 1 ineaments from similar features that·
result from non-tectonic geologic processes.
(c) Discussion
The activities in this task will be closely coordinated with the
photo interpretation studies being conducted for the dam site,.
reservoir and constructed material areas. {Subtask 5.02) to ensure
that information requests and analyses are not duplicated. Following
an initial aerial and ground reconnaissance it may be decided that
low-sun-angle aerial photography should be acquired for specific
geomorphic features that may be fault-'related. For this purpose,
low-sun-angle color infrared and black-and-white photography at a
scale of approximately 1:24,000 is proposed. This has proven exceed-
ingly valuable in delineating subtle topographic features that may be
fault-related. The long shadows cast by the low-sun-angle highlight
subtle topographic features related to faults, such as scarps or off-
sets, that would be undetectable with conventional vertical aerial
photographs.
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Color infrared photography has also proven extremely useful in
delineating subtle features in the terrain such as a contrast in
vegetation or in surface moisture.. Such features are often associa-
ted with faults wher-e ground water is either closest alon.g the fault
zone or on only one side of the fault.
A map of lineaments within 100 km of the project area will be pro-
duced as a guide for Subtasks 4$05 and 4.11. The lineament map will
be supplemented by mapped faults from Subtask 4.01~ in·order to com-
pare known faults with lineaments of various origins.
(d) Schedule
Aerial photographs will be ordered during the first month. The
analysis will be performed during weeks 10 through 26.
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Subtasl< 4.05 -Seismic Geology Reconnaissance
(a) Objective ·
Perform a reconnaissance investigation of known faul~s in the Susitna
River area3 and of lineaments that may be faults, identify active
faults and establish priorities for more detailed field investiga-
tions.
(b) Approach
Tni s task wi 11 uti 1 i ze the data obtai ned from Subtask 4. 01 and the
aerial photographic interpretations outlined in Subtask 4e04 as a
bas1s for planning aerial and ground reconnaissance ..
The aerial reconnaissance wi 11 systematically cover a 11 1 i neaments
and faults identified in previous subtasks. A field ilnalysis will be
made in order to identify whether or not each feature may be an
active fault capable of impacting the project area dtne to its being
aassociated with a large earthquake or capable of producing a future
surface fault rupture. Features within 60 miles of the project area
will be studied during the recoonaissance!l with each lineament and
fault being identified by number. In· addition~ reg·ional reconnais-
sance of major features such as the Denali fault and the Castle
Mountain fault which may extend as far as 200 miles from the. project
area will be investigated. Interpretations regarding the· origin of
each feature will be made by expert seismic geologists with past
experience on similar projects. Those features that are i n.terpreted
to originate from youthful faulting, or features of unknowr. origin
that may be due to youthful faulting, will be studied further in the
field and subjected to reconnaissance-level geologic mapping.
The reconnaissance-level geologic mapping will be oriented toward
identifying whethe.r or not the bedrock units near the feature suggest
the pre~ence or absence of a fault. In addition, the Quaternary
geomorphic S'Jrfaces and stratigraphic units in proximity to each
feature wr· .~ be studied to aid in identifying whether or not faulting
has occurred in young units. The reconnaissance-level mapping, at a
scale of 1:63,360, will aid in identifying those features that will
require detailed study during the field season of 1981.
These activities will be coordinated with the geologic mapping tasks
associated in Subtask 5.04e
(c) Discussion
The Susitna River area is in a complex tectonic area that is poorly
known geologically.. Previous work by t<achadoorian and Moore empha-
sized the structural complexity of this area, and the large number of
1 i near features at the surface that may be due to· faulting or to
other origins. These surface features require field investigation to
identify their origins. In order to identify the origins of-some
features, it may require detailed mapping, trending, borings, or
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geophysical data. Despite thorough investigatjons~ however, it may
not be possible to obtain definitive infonnation regarding the
origins of all the lineaments.
Wood\'-Iard-Clyde Consultants has conducted seismic geology reconnai s-
sance investigations over large regions of Alaska and in many other
sei.smically active areas of the world. Based upon that experience,
v1e estimate that reconnai ssance-1 evel investigations as proposed in
this subtask will define the origins of about 90 percent of the
lineaments identified on remote sensing images. If these features
are considered to be controlling faults for the design of dams and
other important facilities, further detailed investigations will ,be
undertaken in the Seismic Geology Field Studies, Subtask 4.11.
The products of this subtask \vi 11 consist of a map that i denti fi es
recently active faults and featu-res of unknown origins that may be
faults significant to one or more dam sites and other critical
facilities. In addition, all field observations will be tabulated
for each lineament studied, and preliminary estimates of the maximum
credible earthquake and faulting, along with the recurrences of
faulting, will be made for each active fault and other features that
may be faults.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 24 through 39
This task can begin after Subtask 4e04 is complete. Subtask 4.02
should either proceed concurrently with this subtask or it should
precede this subtask.
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Subtask 4.06 -Evaluation and Reporting
(a) Objective~
Complete a preliminary evaluation of the seismic environment of the
project, define the earthquake source parameters required for earth-
quake engineering input in design and document the studies in reports
suitable for use in design studies (Task 6).
(b) Approach
.
The approach of this subtask will be to provide a probabilistic
analysis of earthquakes concerning control of active faulting)) and to
estimate maximum credible earthquakes for each active fault. These
·analyses w-ill be completed by an interdisciplinary team utilizing the
reconnaissance-level information obtained from Subtask 4.01 to 4.05~
Reporting will be in a fonnat suitable for use in selecting the
design basis earthquakes, and will include thorough documentation
that will be suitable for FERC and peer group review.
{c) Discussion
A panel of leading experts in seismology investigation and seismic
design of major structures \'/ill be convened during this activity to
review and corrment on a 11 sta~dy work undertaken and the findings
thereof.
Overall management and coordination of Subtasks 4.01 to 4.05 is also
incorporated in this subtask.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 18 through 52
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Subtask 4.07 -Preliminary Ground ~loti on Studies
(a) Objective
Undertake a preliminary estimate of the ground motions (ground
shaking) to which proposed project facilities may be subjected during
earthquakes.
{b) Approach
The ground motion characteristics to be estimated include peak para-
meters (peak accelerations, velocities, and displacements), response
spectra (describing the frequency content of ground shaking) and
significant duration (describing the time duration of strong ground
shaking). This initial assessment of ground motions will be made
using information from the seismic geology (Subtask 4.05) and seis-
mology (Subtask 4.02) studies.. The ground motion estimates will be
refined if necessary on the basis of additional infonnation gathered
during the second year. (See Subtask 4.13).
In consideration of ground motions~ the terms 11 Seismic exposure" and
11 Seismic risk 11 are sometimes used interchangeably. However, for the
purposes of this proposal they have two distinctly different mean-
ings: ·
-nseismic Exposure" is used to define the nature of the earthquake-
induced ground motion characteristics at a specific site;
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11 Seismic Risk 11 is used to define the risk as the probability of
structura 1 damage or destruction by an earthquake at the project
site. It reflects the degree to which the structure has been
designed to cope with earthquakes.
Ground motions will be estimated using a probabilistic approach)c
usually called a seismic exposure analysis. In this approach, the
probability of exceeding various amplitudes of ground motion is
estimated, taking into account the frequency Qf occurrence of
earthquakes from all si gni fi cant seismic sources and the attenuation
of ground motion from each source to the locations of project
facilities. Earthquakes of various magnitudes, up to the magnitudes
of maximum credible events, will be cons-idered. Attenuation
relationships will be derived from examination and analyses of
earthquake recordings made in similar tectonic environments and in
similar subsurface geologic conditions, including available
recordings from Alaska. wee has recently conducted a comprehepsive
state~of-the-art analysis of seismic exposure in Alaskan offshore
areas {OASES, 1978). The results and data of this previous study,
\'lhi ch included assessment of activity for major onshore faults (e.g.,
Denali Fault, Castle Mountain fault) as well as offshore faults
(e.g., Benioff zone), ·will be extremely valuable to the progress
study. . ·
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(c)
(d)
The end products of this subtask will consist of estimates of the
probability of exceedence during selected time periods (e.g., 100
years) of various levels of ground motions at the. locations of each
proposed major dam and other major facilities. For the long trans-
mission lines and major access roads:. the pr-obability estimates will
be given for appropriate segments of the systems. Probability levels
and corresponding amplitudes of ground motions that may b~ considered
in selecting project seismic design criteria will be discussed. For
the dams, ground motion criteria will be consistent with ground
motions associated with maximum credible earthquakes. For less
critical project components, ground motion characteristics having a
higher probability of exceedence would be used as design criteria.
Discussion
It is widely recognized that neither the occurrence of future earth-
quakes nor the resulting ground motions at a site can be predicted
with great accuracy even when the best avail ab 1 e data and technology
are employed. The fact is recognized in the above approacn and con-
siderable attention will be devoted to determining the reliability of
the estimated design criteria.
The key interrelationships of this subtask and others are the
following:
Projections of earthr:uake recurrence and identification of maximum
credible earthquakes is an essential input to this subtask and will
be accomplished in Subtask 4 .. 06. The results of this subtask consti-
tute essential input to Subtask 4.08 (Preliminary Analysis of Dam
Stability) and Subtask 4.15 (Identification of Soils Susceptible to
Seismically Induced Failure Along the Transmission line and Access
Road Routes).
The products of this task include the following:
-Estimates of the probability of exceedence during selected time
periods (e.g., 100 years) of various degrees of ground motion at
the location of each proposed major dam and other major project
components ..
- A discussion of and recommendations for project ground motion
design criteria.
Schedule
Weeks 24 through 52
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Subtask 4.08 -Preliminary Analxsis of Dam Stabilitt
(a) Objective
Make preli-minary evaluations of the seismic stability of proposed
earth, rockfill and/or concrete dams during maximum credible earth-
quakes.
(b) Approach
These evaluations will be of a conceptual nature and will be under-
taken as input to Task 6 design studies aoo determinations of the
impact of seismicity on dam costs; j.e .. , on the requirements for
design and/or treatment of foundations, design of dams, construction
materia 1 s and placement requirements.
The prel iminaty eval uat·ion of the adequacy of designs of earth and
rockfi 11 dams to resist seismic ground shaking wfll invo1 ve the.
following steps:
-~valuation of strength character-istics under seismic loading con-
~,.h~.ions of in situ soils left in place in earth or rockfill dam
foun(fat ions.
-EvaluatiDn of key static and dynamfc properties of embankment
materiaJ Se Particularly important properties are the static and
cyclic ~trength characteristics and permeability.
-Assessment Clf the potential for landsliding and large defonnations
through embahkment or concrete dams and foundation during or
following sei ;mic ground shakingo
The cyclic stre;1gth characteristics of foundation soils will be
assessed on the basis of field boring data and laboratory index and
classification tQst data. For. unfrozen sands in the foundation
3
blow
counts from standard penetration tests {SPT's) in borings will be
used to evaluate the resistance of the soils to liquefaction. Prop-
erties of embankment materials wi·ll be estimated on the basis of
general description:» grain size distributions and compaction require-
ments of proposed borrow materials. This infonnation will be supple-
mented by the experience of· the project staff and informati.on obta·in-
ed fr·om J;Jbl i shed data. In addition, approximately six dynamic
cyclic tests of proposed embankment or found~tion mater·ial s are
planned. The results of these tests will be compared with data for
similG\.r materials available in published literature and in the files
of wee. ·
The potential for 1 andsl iding in the embankments and their founda-
tions will be analyzed using simplified analytical approaches and
experience in similar studies.. The key evaluations that are needed
for the assessment of dam behavior are:
-the potential for generation and dissipation of excess pore water
pressures in the materials during and following an earthquake
{str~'ngly dependent on permeability).
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-the potential for sliding using conventional stability analysis
approaches and taking into account the effect of seismically-
induced pore pressures on soil and rockfill strengths<S
(c) Discussion
•.
The execution of this subtask will involve an iterative approach ..
For the initial designs, the experience of the project team will be
used to estab 1 ish broad guide 1 i nes f.or materia 1 se 1 ect 1 on and design.
These designs will be evaluated for seismic stability. These results
will then be used to modify, if necessary, the designs which in turn
may be checked by.a second evaluation.
The. interrelationships of this subtask to others are the fall owing:
-input is required from Subtasks 4.07 -Pre'l iminary Ground Motion
Studies, Task 5 -Geotechnicta.l Exploration and Task 6 -Design
Development. Task 6 input will be particularly required fran the
subtasks dealing with preliminary designs of dams and descriptions
of construction materials and placement requirements •
-outputs of this subtask will be used as input to Task 6 -Design
Development, particularly for preliminary dam design.
The products of this subtask are:
... Preliminary evaluation of the seismic stability of embankment cross
sections subject to maximum credible earthquake loading.
-Recorrmendations for changes in preliminary .embankment cross
sections, material compaction requirements~ and foundation treat-
ment if required for increasing seismic stability.
-Preliminary evc.\luations of requirements for design of concrete dams
(arch or gravity, as required).
The required dynamic ana 1 yses of the embankments wi 11 be undertaken
under Task 6 activities. Woodward-Clyde Consultants will provide
ongoing consulting services for these analyses~ under Subtask. 4.14.
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(d) Schedule
Weeks 50 through 85
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Subtask 4.09 -Long-term Seismologic Monitoring Program
{a)· Objective
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Develop a long-term seismologic monitoring program to provide a
continuing source of seismological data for refinement of the seismic
design aspects of the project during the detailed design phase.
(b) Approach
Based on the experience gained with the r,hnrt-term seismologfc moni ....
taring program (Subtask 4.02) a detailed program of long-tenn moni-
toring and data analysis will be designed for implementation prior to
the license award. This program will be designed to detennine the
background level of seismic activity on shallow crustal faults
pertinent to the evaluation of possible reservoir-induced seismicity.
Emphasis.will therefore be placed on providing an inexpensive,
reliable data collection facility and flexibility analysis
. procedures.
(c) Discussion
The long-term seismologic monitoring program will be developed on the
understanding that arrangements will be made by APA for continued
operation of the system and evaluation of data through construction
of the Susitna Project and beyond. Appropriate documentation and
operating manuals will be prepared for this purpose.
(d) Schedu·l e
Weeks 100 through 130
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Subtask 4.10 -Reservoir-Induced Seismicity
(a} Objective
To refine the estimate for the potential for reservoir induced
seismicity made in Subtask 4e03.
{b) Approach
The additional field data collected ·in Subtask 4.11 will be
incorporated in a reassessment of the work done in Subtask 4.03 •
(c) Schedule
Weeks 83 through 91
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Subtask 4.11 -Seismic Geology Field Studies
{a) Objectives
Perform seismic geology field studies to identify faults that may be
active and in the vicinity of the selected dam 5ites.
{b) Approach
These data will be used in the final evaluation to identify the
maximum credible earthquakes on each fault, and the recurrence of
faulting and earthquakes along each fault. The results of this sub-
task will be used as input to Subtask 4.12-Evaluation and Report-
ing. Planning of the field studies will be based on the results of
Subtask 4.05 -Seismic Geology Reconnaissance and of Subtask 4.04 -
Remote Sensing Image Analyses. We will also ensure that field
studies be pursued at features that may affect project design at
selected dam sites.
The subtask will include the following investigations which will be
specifically designed for each feature to be studied:
-geologic mapping at a scale of 1:24,000.
-·trenching of selected features
-borings
-test pits
-geophysical investigations
-age dating.
•)
Compared to the work done in __ Subtask 4.05, the geologic mapping will
include more detailed Quaternary data, and bedrock mapping at select-
ed places along specific lineaments and geologic features (e.g. the
Susitna fault and other features that may be fault-related). Age-
dating studies will be undertaken to aid in the identification and
carrel ation of geologic units.. Trenches excavated across features
that may be fault-related, or borings on either side of these
features, will be used to aid evaluation of these features. The
trenching (or boring) sites will be selected during the geologic
mapping phase and will be located in areas considered suitable for
assessing the nature of the faults and the degree of fault activity.
It is currently anticipated that approximately three trenching sites
will be identified, with two trenches at each site. One site will be
located along the Susitna fault$ and an additional three sites along
other features that are preliminarily identified as-controlling
features. During the course of the study~ geophysical investiga-
tions (including seismic refraction lines and gravity or magnetic
surveys) will also be undertaken to aid in locating and evaluating
the faults and the nature of the faulting.
(c) Discussion
All of the field exploratory work outlined above is incorporated in
Subtask 5.06.
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The data derived from these geologic studies on contro11 ing features
wi 11 be evaluated to assess the potential of these features -as
seismic sources. This process will include refining the estimate-of
the maximum magnitude of an earthquake that may occur .a1ong the
feature~ the frequency of occurrence of seismic events along the
features the focal mechanism of the event> the distances fran the dam
sites at which the event may occur and the type of faulting and the
amount of fault-displacement that may occur on these features. This
data will fonn the basis for design values derived in Subtask 4.12.
Products derived fran this Sub task will include:
-Documentation, tabulation, and an assessment of lineaments~ mapped
faults, and epicenter locations identified as potential controlling
features,
- A map (scale 1:24,000) of the se~ected controlling features in the
vicinity of the dam site,
- A geologic map {scale 1:24~000) and selected areas along the
controlling features, ·
-Trench logs or core data of excavations or borings undertaken to
evaluate the controlling features,
-The interpretation of geophysical data collected along the control-
1 i ng features~
Estimates of the maximum earthquake, the type of faulting and the
amount of displacement that may occur during that event, the
distance of the earthquake from the damsites and the frequency of
occurrence of earthquakes of that magnitude along each controlling
feature:t
-An evaluation of-significant, related seismic effects that may
occur in the dam site and reservoir areae
(c) Schedule 3
Weeks 64 through 95
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Subtask 4.12 -Eva 1 uation an.d .Reporting
(a) Objective§_
To refine the evaluation of the seismic environment and the-
earthquake source parameters derived-in Sub task 4; 06, comp1 ete the
reporting of all the fieldwork and studies undertaken in Subtasks
4.01, 4.05 and 4.09 to 4.11~ and provide coordination a.nd management
to Subtasks 4.09 to 4.11.
{b) Aperoac;h
All the additional field data collected for the Long-Term Monitoring
Program -Subtask 4.09, Reservoir-Induced Seismicity -Subtask 4.10
and Sesimic Geology Field Studies -Subtask 4.11 will oe utilized to
refine the pre1 iminary evaluations undertaken in Subtask 4.06~ The .--'"
same basic methodologies as employed in Subtask 4.06 Will be used. v;:
The seismic review panel will again be convened during this subtask. <'"',. ..r,--
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{c) Schedule·
Weeks /) through 104
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Subtask 4.13 -Ground JVIotion Studies
(a)
(b)
Objectives
Refine the estimate
4.07. of ground motion characteristics made in Subtask
AEEroach
Based on the additional information gathered during the second year
of the study, the work done in Subtas k 4. 0 7 wi 11 be reviewed, and, if
necessary, appropriate adjustments wi 11 be made ..
(c) Schedule
Weeks 75 through 104
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Subtask 4.14 -Dam Stability Consulting Services
(a) Objective
{b)
{c)
To provide consulting assistance to the Acres design group engaged in
the feasibility design of the dams.
Approach
During the feasibility design stage Acres will undertake all the
necessary dynamic analyses required to complete the design of the
dams under Task 6 -, D~sign Development Activities. wee will act in a
general consultancy role and respond to specific questions raised by
the Acrest team. The seismic review panel will also be consulted
under this subtask.
Schedule
.sf
Weeks ptl'through 120
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{d)
Subtask 4.15 -SoH Susce tibilit to Seismican -Induced Faliure
(a) ObJective _.___ __ _
l andsl idfng.
Identtfy those areas along the transmission line ~nd major access
road routes that appear to be underlain by sons particularly suscep-
tible to se"i smicallY-induced ground failure such as ~iquefaction or
(b) .~pproacl!
The intent of this subtask is not to provide detailed design-level
evaluations of soil failure Potential. Rather it is to identify
those areas having conditions that could si';lnfficantly affect costs
of transmission lines or access roads by rel\!.liring rerouting, special designs or contingency measures.
This subta sk wil 1 be accompli si:!A!! by a review of the geo 1 og i c map-
ping, soils data, topographic data and estimated seismic ground
motions {Subtask 4.07) along the routes. The identification of
fail ure-susceptibie soils will be accomplished mainly on the tas'is of
experience in performance of soi] deposlts during earthquakes.
Simplified analytical approaches and empirical correlations will be
used to aid in assessing the potential for lfquefaction of unfrozen,
saturated, cohesionless sands. Possible remedial measures for areas
of high failure potent~al will be briefly described. These include
rerouting, special fOundations, soil excavation and/or filJ ing.
(c) Discussion
The resu 1 t s of this subtas k wi 1 1 enab 1 e estimates to be made of
additional costs required for design and construction of facilities
due to seismicially-induced soil failure potential. However, if the
con sequences of fa iJ u re are not too severe, and/ or if the probab il i ty
of damaging earthquake ground motions is low, it may be approprfate
to utilize conventional designs but to provide contingency p1 ans and
budgets for repairs. For ex amp] e, cons i derab 1 e 1 at era l spreading and
settlements of access roads might be acceptable consequences during
an earthquake but would generate additional repair cost to the pro-ject.
Inputs to this subtask will be obtained from Subtask 4.07 -Ground
Motion Studies, Subtask 5.04 -Field Program 80, and Subtask 5.06 -
Field Program 81. Out13uts from this task wi11 be utilized in the design and costing of these facilities.
The produ~ts of this subtask are:
-Delineation on maps and/or in tabular form of areas hav'ing high
potential for seismically induced ground failure.
-·Brief descriptions of possible remedial measures for facilities in areas of high failure potential.
Schedule
~-
Weeks-~~, through ~"'
~; . lt>tf
TASI<
0 ESCRtPTlON
DATA REVIEW
.02 SHORT-iERM
MONITORING PROGRAM
4.03 1 RESERVOIR •INOUCEO
4.10 SElSMlCt1"V
4.04 REMOTE SENSING
IMAGE ANAt.YSIS
5 SEISMIC GEO\eOGY
RECONNAlSSANCE
4. II SEISMIC GEOLOGY
FIEl.D STUDIES
REVJEW MEETINGS
GROUND MOTION
STUDIES
.l 4 OAM STABIL1TY
SOlLS SUSCEPTIBLE
.15 TO SEISMICALl.Y--
lNOUC.ED FAILURE
..
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: 1980 1991
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY ~UN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
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SUSlTN~~ HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ·
PLAN OF ,STUDY
PLATE T4.l • ·TASK 4 SCHEDULE
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A.5 .. 6 -TASK 5: GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATION
· {i) Task Objectiv~~
To determine the surface and subsurface geology and geotechnical
conditions for. the feasibility studies of the proposed Susitna
Hydroelectric Project, including the access roads and the transmis-
sion lines.
(ii) Task Output
The Task 5 studies will be designed to provide input to the Task 6
design studies and will provide support to the Task 4 studies.
The primary outputs of Task 5 will consi$t of comprehensive documen-
tation of geotechni ca 1 exploration undertaken at the. Devi 1 Canyon
and Watana sites, reservoirs, and access roads and transmission line
routes. This documentation will include the following:
-geo 1 ogi c maps
-geologic sections
-descriptive and graphic borehole l~gs
-descriptive test trench logs
-field inspection boreho 1 e and· test trench 1 ogs
photogeologic maps ·
-borehole rock core photographs
-low level air photointerpretation
-seismic and resistivity bedrock profiles
-radar imagery interpretation maps
-geotechnical exploration program summaries (1980, 1981, 1982}
-data summaries for
~-in-hole seismic testing
--borehole camera studies
--laboratory testing.
-geotechnical exploration summary reports (1980, 1981)
(iii) list of Subtasks
Subtask 5.01 -Data Collection and Review
Subtask 5.02-Photointerpretation·
Subtask 5.03 -Exploratory Program Design (1980)
Subtask 5.04 -Exploratory Program (1980}
Subtask 5.05 -Exploratory Program Design (1981)
Sub-;.;ask 5. 06 -Exp 1 oratory Program {1981)
Subtask 5. 07 -Exp 1 oratory Prog rar-: nes i gn (1982)
Subtask 5.08 -Data Compilati.on
(iv) Subtask Scope Statements
For the purposes of this Plan ofStudy, the geotechnical exploratory
programs are essentially divided into first-, secnnrl~ and third-year
stages (1.980, 1981 and 1982). Exploratory work to be undertaken in
1982 and beyond is not included in TasR 5 activities. Preparation
of the program for 1982 is nevertheless included on the understand-
ing that the 1982 program will be initiated prior to submission of
the FERC license application, but is not an essential prerequisite
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to that submission. Tbe 1980 geotechnical exploration program will
be designed to identify and investigate in 1 imited detail those
geological and geotechnical conditions which will significantly
affect the feasibi1 ity of the proposed dam projects.. Limited
preplanning opportunities and climatic constraints'are such that
invest·igations in 1980 will be somewhat limited in scope, and the
data limited in detail. Emphasis will therefore be placed on
identifying and investigating to the maximum extent the most adverse
geotechnical conditions encounter~d.
The· objectives of the 1981 geotechncial exploration program will be
to investigate in more detai 1 those geoi ogical and geotechnical .
conditions~ both general and adverse, which will significantly
affect the design and construction of the proposed dam projects.
Exploration along the routes selected for the access roads and
transmission lines will also be undertaken in 1981. Although the
scope of the exp 1 oratory work and the data produced in 1981 wi 11
still be somewhat limited~ the exploratory program will be designed
to establish with reasonable confidence the feasibility and total
cost of the project, access roads and transmission lines. The
exploratory program in 1982 \'Jill be yet more detailed. This and
subsequent programs will be aimed at providing greater certainty in
the design of major dams and strpctures with a view towards further
ensuring the safety of structures while minimizing potential project
cost overruns due to unforeseen geotechnical design conditions. The
geotechncal exploration programs will be specifically designed to be
complementary to the work already completed. ·
The geotechnical exploration programs in the field will also be
severely constrained by difficulties of access and maneuverability
of equipment imposed by weather conditions and the requirements for
environmental preservation. Full account has been taken of these
constraints in developing thi~ Plan of Study.
A detailed discussion of the individual subtasks follows. It should
be stressed that the exploration program design is based on the
assumption that Watana and Devil Canyon are the selected sites.
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Subtask 5.01 -Data Collection ~nd Review
{a} Objective
Collect an·d review all existing geological and geotechnical data
pertaining to the Susitna Project ·area, including the access road and
transmission line corridors and the Susitna River basin.
{b) Approach
Data to be coll;.:!cted at this stage include, b~t are not limited to
the followin.g:
-previous regional and site geological mapping and studies
-published or unpublished geological and geotechnical data and
reports from federql, state~ academic or private sources.
.
-air photos and high level ERTS photos of th.e project area,
including the proposed access road and transmission line
-geophysical survey~ remote sensing and seismicity studies and data
pertafning or· relevant to the project
A short field visit will be made to the proposed damsites for prelim-
inary geologic interpretation. This will assist in making the pre-
liminary damsite andwdam alignment selections in Task 6. This in
turn will determine the design of the exploratory investigation
program. The data and results of review \~i 11 be assembled i nta a
brief report with appropriate appendices. These documents will be
made available for subsequent use by all project design and study
groups •
Borehole rock cores from previous investigations will also be
examined in Anchorage. Contacts will be made with the University of
Alaska to gather geologic and geotechnical data. A check will be
made for mining jnterests in the project areas. Data pertaining to
geological and geotechnical problems associated with the construction
of large embankments, access roads and transmission lines will be
collected. Discussions will be held with the U.S Corps of Engineers
concerning details of the past fie.ld studies.
This task wi 11 be undertaken by Acres' Anchqrage staff with appropri-
ate support from R&r4 Consu 1 tants ..
(c) Schedule
< I Week 0 through 9
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Subtask 5.02 -Photointerpretation
{a) Objective
..
Perform air photointerpretati on and terrain analysis of the Watana
and Devi 1 Canyon damsite areas:;, reservoir areas, construction
material borrow areas (.;nd access road and transmission line
corridors, and identify adverse geological features and geotechnical
conditions that would signficant1y affect the.design and construction
of the project features.
(b) f\:eproach
Photointerpretation will be based on available air photography
obtained under Subtask 5.01, and new aerial photos of a larger scale
obtained under Task 2 for the damsites, reservoirs, and construction
materials borrow areas, access road and transmission line corridors.
The initial photoanalysis will utilize existing air photos obtained
either from private or government sources. These photos are believed'
to be high level and consequently small sca1k'2.. They will~ however,
serve to establish preliminary surface geology, including geomorpho-
logy~ geologic history, glacial geology, lithology and stratigraphy,
structural geology, permafrost characteristics and geohydrology and
engineering geology. Land forms will be identified. Alluvial or
glaciofluvial deposits of previous sand and gravel~ glacial deposits
of impervious till and floodplain deposits of poorly drained, com-
pressible silty materia1s will be located. The distribution, quality
and stratigraphic relationships of rock types wi11 be identified"
Photo analysis will als·J be used to generally delineate or infer
permafrost areas and buried channels. Groundwater regimes will also
be studied and urrstable and/or erodible slopes identified.
A short fie 1 d study wi 11 be required to verify the photo-
interpretation analysis. This will be perfonned early in the first
field season (1980).
(c) Discussion
New air photos produced under Task 2 will be available at the end of
the first field seasono These low level~ higfi resolution~ large
scale photos will have two purposes:
-preparation of second year exploratory investigation program
-production of accurate topographic maps on which to base subsequent
geological mapping and design studies. ·
Photointerpretation under this subtask will be undertaken by Acres'
Anchorage staff and closely coordinated with the photointerpretation
work done by vSCC (Subtask 4.05) in order to· eliminate unnecessary
duplication of work. -
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The results of photointerpretation will be documented in the form of
brief surrmary reports and appended photographs and maps to highlight
the principal findings~
(c) Schedule
Weeks 5 through 41
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Subtask 5.03 -Exploratory Program Design {19BOl
{a) Objective
Des~gn the geotechnical exploratory investigatjon programs for 1980
for Watana and Devil Canyon damsites, dam construction materials, and
reservoir areas, and along the access road route.
(b) Approach
.
The design of the various exploratory investigations will be based on
the results of the data collection and review study (Subtask 5.01)
and the air-photo interpt"etation study (Subtask 5.02)o Input from the
preliminary access road studies under Task 2 will also be required.
Generally, these exploratory investigations will consist of geologic
mapping, auger drilling and sampling, test trenching, seismic and
resistivity studies, airborne radar imagery techniques and laboratory
testing. In cases where environmental damage is a problem or
accessibility is poor, test trenches will be replaced by shallow
auger drilling by helicopter. The design will specify the following details:
-area to be geologically mapped
-position and extent of seismic.and resistivity lines
-areas to be investigated by airborne radar imagery techniques
-types and numbers of laboratory tests.
Investigations for access roads will be confined to geologic mappfng
and radar imagery. Table A5.3 _and A5.5 detail the type and extent of
investigations and laboratory testing that are currently proposed
elsewhere,. The de.sign of the exploratory investigations will be
flexible enough to permit changes during the execution of the work.
These changes will become evident as the field studies proceed.
(d) Discussion
Work under this subtask will be performed by Acres• Anchorage staff ·
with support in logistical planning provided by R&M and close liaison with wee.
In the design of the exploratory investigations, full advantage will
be taken of the extensive investigations previously undertaken.
These include drilling, test pitting, geologic mapping and seismic
surveys by the US Corps of Engineers at Watana damsite, and the
drilling investigations and seismic studies at Devil Canyon by the US
Corps of Engineers and the US Bureau of Reclamation ..
-Watana Site
At the Watana damsite area, 17 boreholes have been drilled for a
total of 3,340 feet and 11 boreholes have been drilled, totalling
1,815 fP.et in the right bank spillway and buried channel area.
Reconnaissance reservoir mapping_ and fault mapping has been per-
formed by Kachadoorian. A total of 19 auger and diamond drill
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tf.. holes and 26 test pits have bee·n made in the construction material
areas. A total of 69,600 feet .. of seismic surveys has also been
completed. ·
These investigations have tentatively shown the Watana site to be
suitable for an earth and rock~fill dam. The dam foundati6n
contains small shear zones but no major shear zones have been
found. Construction materials appear to be available and suitable.
Although the important Susitna fault traverses the reservoir, no
active faults have as yet been proven in the reservoir. There has
been a suggestion that the Tsusena Creek a11gnm~nt downstream of
the dam may represent discontinuity of some kind. Discontinuous
permafrost exists 1 oca 11y. Overbur·den depth in the riverbed at the
site appears to be less than 80 feet. A deep buried and
potentially leaky channel exists in the right abutment ..
Further studies at Hat ana are required to prove the absence of
major faults in the riverbed and in the abutments~ to deljneate
permafrost zones and identify its characteristics, prove the
availability and suitability of the construction materials, confirm
good quality rock in the spillway and powerhouse area and define
the buried channel and identify its geohydrologic properties.
-Devil Canyon Site
At the Devil Canyon damsite, 13 boreholes totalling 1~350 feet have
been drilled in the dam area and another eight boreholes totalling
735 feet have been drilled in the left abutment buried channel
area. Nineteen test· trenches have been excavated in potenti a1
borrow areas. A total of 3,300 feet of seismic surveys have been
performed. Although there has been little geologic mapping of the
abutments at Devil Canyon, the investigations have shown this site
to be suitable for a concrete gravity struct~re.
Major shear zones have not been found in the dam foundation area
but minor shear zones are present. Although no active faults have
been f-ound in the reservoir, a deep buried channel exists in the
left abutment. Some potential construction material areas have
been identified.
Further studies at Devil Canyon are required to prove the absence
of major faulting in the riverbed and abutments or active faults in
the reservoir. Studies are also needed to determine the site
geology in more detail, to delineate and evaluate the 1eft abutment
buried channel and to prove the availability and suitability of
construction materials.
(c.) Schedule
Weeks 12 through 20
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Area
Damsite
Dam Con-
struction
Materials
Reservoir
Basin
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TABLE A5.3
PROPOSED GEOTECHNICAL EXPLORATORY PRO.GRAM ... 1980
Exploration
Geologic Mapping
·Geophysical (seismic
and resist i v-;ty)
Diamond Drilling
Airborne radar
imagery
Geologic Mapping
Portable Auger
Drilling
Geophysical (seismic
and resi sti v1ty)
Test Trenches
Airborne Radar
Imagery
Geologic Mapping
Portable Auger
Dri 11 ing
Geophysical (seismic)
Diamond Drilling
Airborne Radar Imagery ---
PROJECt SIRUCIORES/FACILIIIES I
Dev1l Canyon Dam & Reservo1r Watana Dam g Reservo1r
yes
3 -900 ft. 1 i nes at buried channel
site
3 -Oblique 450ft. lines across river
channel
2 - 1 ;ooo ft. 1 i nes on right abutment
1000 ft.
+ -3,500 ft. at right anrl 1 eft abutment
and saddle dam site
One established and two new borrow
areas
yes
')
20 -10 ft. deep holes in the two
proposed borrow areas
2 -1,000 ft. 1 ines in the two pro-
posed borrow areas
30 trenches in the three borrow areas
6 -1,000 ft. 1 ines in the three
borrow areas
yes
10 -10 ft. deep h&
2,000 ft.
100 ft.
10~000 ft.
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yes
1 -5,000 ft. ·1 ine at pmnposed
spillway site
2 -Oblique 1,500 ft. limes
across river withirr \.Upstream
portion of dam
600 ft.
+ 4,000 ft. at right ancb 1 eft
abutments
Four established and tWOJ new
borrow areas
yes
20 -10 ft. deep holes ]~ the
two proposed borrow areas
2 -1,000 ft. 1 ines in t~e two
proposed borrow areas
30 trenches in threen of ·borrow
areas
8 -1,000 ft. 1 i nes in ftlUt" of.
the borrow areas .
yes
10 -10 ft. deep holes
6,000 ft. at site of right bank
relict channel
100 ft.
20,000 ft.
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Subtask 5.04 -Exploratory Program {1980)
(a} Objecti~~
Perform initial surface and subsurface investigations at Watana and
Devil Canyon sites and reservoir areas and access road routes to
establish genera·i and specific geological and foundation conditions.
(b) Approach
The program will essentially be designed to
-obtain more details on the surface and subsurface geology and
foundation conditions at the Watana and Devil Canyon damsites.
-complete the preliminary evaluation of the availability and
suitability of the various construction materials required, i.e.
fine and coarse aggregate, fine and coarse rockfill, impervious
earth fill, pervious and semipervious granular fill and riprap.
-determine the surface geology and geotechnical conditions in
limited detail to the Watana and Devil Canyon reservoir areas.
-provide preliminary geologic assessments of the proposed access
road routes.
Fie 1 d work programs wi 11 generally be designed by Acres • Anchorage
~ office personnel with input from the Buffalo design group as needed.
Seismologic input will be provided by WCC and logistical support. by
R&M. -All field operations will be performed by R&M with appropriate
technical inspection and supervision by Acres and to a lesser extent
the wee staff.
{c) Damsites
The proposed exploratory investigations will supplement previous work
in establishing general and specific surface and subsurface geologic
and foundation conditi ens at the Devil Canyon and Watana darnsite
areas.
The investigations will comprise geologic mapping, diamond drilling~
geophysical, seismic and resistivity studies and airborne radar
imagery, to substantiate and augment the available information <ln
-depth, distribution, type, stratigraphy and properties of over-
burden ..
-distribution, type, quality, degree of weathering and permeability
of bedrock
-location, orientation, width, continuity, filling characteristics
and capability of major discontinuities in bedrock such as faults
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-orientation, frequency, opening., continuity and filling of joints
in bedrock
-pennafrost characteristics including location, temperature profile
and soil type
-groundwater regime
Emphasis will be placed on locating and studying adverse geological
features. Such features will include faults., excessive depths of
overburden in ri.verbeds and buried channels which will si gnficantly
effect the design and cost of a dam project at.a gty __ en .sLte.
The geologic mapping at Wa~ana and Devil Canyon damsites will be
undertaken to supplement and verify the prev·ious geological mapping
carried out by the U.S. Corps of Engineers and the u.s. Geological
Survey (Kach~doorian).
The photointerpretation (Subtask 5.02) will be checked in the field~
and adverse geologic features and conditions suggested in the
photointerpretation will be investigated on tht: ground. The geologic
mapping wi 11 uti 1 i ze the most recent topographic maps. Aerial photos
and survey lines normal to the river will be used as reference in the
field. The geologic mapping will be -perfonned primarily by Acres 1
Anchorage office personne 1 with assistance from R&~1.
Geophysical seismic refraction and resistivity studies will be
carried out primarily to determine bedrock depth in deep overburden
areas such as buried relict ·channels and the riverbed area* This
work will be done at both damsites. Seismic work can be misleading
in pennafrost regimes an~ resistivity provides a reasonable
alternative.
Bedrock depth profi 1 es wi 11 be prep~ red from these studies. Airborne
radar imagery v1ill be used to delineate the areas of pennafrost.
The geophysical \~ork, including the interpretation, will be
undertaken by R&M, with review and liaison by Acres' Anchorage office
personnel.
{d) Construction Materials
The exploratory investigations for construction materials will
comprise geological mapping, portable auger drilling, geophysical
seismic and resistivity studies, test trenching and laboratory
testing.
The geologic mapping, drilling, trenching and geophysical 'llork will
generally be used to establish the limits, depth, stratigraphy, type
and properties of the borrow materia 1 s. The 1 imits, type and proper-
ties of potential quarry. rock will be similarly determined. The
explorations will also serve to verify the photointerpretation and
previous .studies by the Corps of Engineers. Groundwater and
permafrost conditions will be investigated and extensive soil
sampling undertaken .. Rock outcrops will be mapped and test trenches
excavated by small track-mounted backhoes to a depth of about 13
feet.
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Geophysica:l techniques such as seismic refraction and resistivity
will be used to prove the depth of the potential borrow materials and
the groundwater depth. Airborne radar imagery or low sun angle air
photos will be used to assist in i,dentifyi ng the permafrost areas.
A moderate amount of laboratory testing of the borrow material will
be conducted at this stage. The testing will comprise routine soil
identification tests including unit weight, moisture content, consis-
tency, Atterberg 1 imits and gradation.
Standard Proctor compaction tests wi 11 a1 so be performed on pervious
and impervious material and permeability of compacted impervious
materials assessed. Some dynamic shea,r strength tests under high
confining pressures will also be performed on impervious and pervious
materia 1 s.. Potentia 1 concrete aggregate samp 1 es wi 11 be tested for
sodium sulfate soundness, acidity and Los Angeles abrasion character-
istics. .,
All field exploration work under this subtask wi11 be undertaken by"
R&M.. Laboratory testing on borrow material wi 11 be perfonned by R&M
with some assistance from wee •
Design liaison, supervision and review will be provided by Acres'
Anchorage office personnel.
{e) Reservoir Areas
The exploratory investigations to be carried out for the reservoir
areas will include geologic mapping, portable auger drilling and
geophysical seismic refraction surveys.
The primary aim wi 11 be to map those geol ogica'l features and geotech-
nical conditions in the reservoir area which may seriously affect the
reset·voir performance. Such features may include previous buried
channels or faults in the reservoir rim which may jeopardize the
reservoir watertightness, faults which may be activated under reser-
voir impound·ing and natural slopes which may become unstable or
erodible with reservoir impound.i ng or reservoir drawdown.
The geologic mapping will be on a reconnaissance scale: The air-
photo interpretation {Subtask 5.02) will be checked on the ground and
specific adverse features suggested in the. photointerpretation will
be investigated. The distribution~ type and properties of overburden
and bedrock materials will be checked against the photointerpreta-
tion. Portable auger drills will be used to drill shallow holes to
assist in establishing the subsurface geology and geologic history.
Low sun angle air photos or airborne radar imagery techniques·wf11 be
utilized to help~delineate general permafrost areas which may cause
unstable slopes once the reservoir is impounded. Specific test areas
will be identified in which auger borings utilizing a modified CRREL
core barrel will be used to sample permafrost. Thermal probes will
be installed in the holes to determine temperature profiles.
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(f)
No buried channels h&ve been found to date in the reservoir rim. If
such channels are.suggested in the photointerpretation, geophysical
seismi.c studies will be initiated to detersnine the depth and nature
of the overburden and channel widths •
A relatively minor amount of laboratory testing· will also be under-
taken in this phase. This will comprise routine soils identification
tests on those samples taken in the reservoir studies.
All field and 1 aboratory work undertaken under this subtask will be
performed by R&M. Design liaison, supervision and review will be
provided by Acres • Anchorage office personne 1.
Schedule
Weeks 20 through 40
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Subtask 5e05 -Exploratory Program Design (1981)
(a) Objective
Design the geotechnical exploratory investigation programs for 1981
for Watana and Devil Canyon damsites, dam cqnstruction materials and
reservoir areas, and for the se 1 ected access road and the transmi s-
sion line routes.
(b) Approach
The design of the 1981 program will be determined to a large extent
by the results of the 1980 investigations and other preliminary
design acti viti e,s in progress. ·
The 1981 investigations will be by means of a confirmation of the
1980 program of geologic mapping, auger driiiing and sampling, test
trenching, seismic and resistivity studies, airborne radar imagery
techniques and laboratory t~sting. In addition, diamond drilling and
in-hole seismic, borehole camera and instrumentation studies will be
performed. The program will be designed to obtain more detailed
information on the subsurface geology in general, on rock mass defor-
mation properties, rock mass jointing characteristics and slope move-
ment. Locations, depths and inclinations of the boreholes and
methods and priorities of drilling will be defined, together with
identification of which holes will be tested by in-hole seismic
methods or studied by borehole camera. ·
The design of the exploratory investigations for the access road and
transmission line will also be performed in this subtask. The access
road and transmission line corridors will traverse terrain varying
from flat, wet marshland and soft overburden to dry, sloping rock
hillsides. No field investigations have been performed to date on
the access road or transmission line.
Exp 1 orations along the se 1 ected transmission and access road routes
will include drilling and sampling .. To comply with environmental
constraints, it is anticipated that this exploration will be under-
taken using track-mounted hollow-stem auger drill rigs during the
winter months of February and/or March. In wooded areas, helicopter
supported auger rigs will b.e used. to permit access. Exploratory
investigations for the roa.d v1ill include delineation of areas of
permafrost, unstable slopes, soft foundations and availability and
suitability of construction materials.r. Investigations for the trans-
mission line will be similar but will also be planned to determine
probable tO\'Ier foundation conditions.
Tables A5.4 and A5.5 outline the details of th~ proposed 1981 inves-
tigation and testing program as currently anticipated.
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Design of the 1981 field program will take full account of the con-
straints necessary to .c:omply with federal and state permit requirements.
(c) Discussion
(d)
The program envisaged at this time has been based on selection of the
Watana and Devil Canyon sites for development. Preparation of the
program design will be closely coordinated with activities of Tasks
2, 4, 6 and 8. This will ensure that the data obtained will provide
cost effective input to the selected locations and designs of major structures, particularly the dams.
The field exploration data will be used to confirm or appropriately
modify tht1 adopted design criteria for embankment construction
materials and foundations. Emphasis will be placed on ensuring the
safety of structures and the minimization of potential construction cost overruns.
Work under· this subtask will be performed by Acres' Anchorage staff
with support in logistical planning provided by R&M and close liaison with wee seismic investigations.
Schedule
Weeks ~through 9-6-
k~ {o/ Jt\\ j
Area Type of Exploration
Damstte Geologic Happing
Diamond Drfll1ng
Dam Construction
HaterJals
Reservoir
Basin
In-hole Seismic
Borehole Camera Test Trenching
Auger Drilling
Dtamond Drilling
Test Trenching
Geologic Mapping
Portabie Auger Drilling
Diamond Drilling
Geophysfcal{Se1sm1c Reservoir S ope}
Monitoring )
TABLE A5.4
PROPOSED GEOTECJil'llCAL EXPLORATORY PROGRAM .. 1961
yes
4 holes 1n rfght abutment (power-house and dam) 4 holes in left ·abutment (saddle
d&~ and diversion tunnel)
3 holes in riverbed*
1500 ft.
1500 ft.
15 trenches
Three borrow areas from 1980 program plus two new areas
10 -30 ft. deep holes
10 -50 ft. deep holes in ffve borrow areas
30 trenches in two ne~ areas
yes
10 -10 ft. deep holes
3 -100 ft. deep holes, 1 • 200 ft. 1000 ft.
1 -200 ft. slope indicators
yes
2 holes in relict channel, right abutment
2 holes in right abutment
spillway and dam)
2 holes in left abutment (power-house and dam)~*
1000 ft.
1200 ft.
15 trenches
Sfx borrow areas from 1980 program plus two new areas
12 -30 ft. deep holes
12 -50 ft. deep holes in six borrow areas
30 trenches fn two new areas
yes
10 -10 ft. deep holes
3 -100 ft. deep holes, 1 -200 ft. 1000 ft.
l .. 200 ft. slope indicator
Access Road
Route
(Approx.
So mfles)
Geologic MappinV
;~~~~v;~~::~ o~fVii~g
Ho.llow Stem Auger) Diamond Drilling )
ACCESS ROAD
yes
10 miles (20l of total length)
25 -~0 ft. deep holes
Transmission
Lfne Route
(Approx. 360
miles)
Geologic Mappf.ng
Portable Auger Drilling
Hollow Stem Auger)
Diamond Drilling }
15 • 50 ft. deep holes
TRANSMISSION LINE
yes
35 -10 ft. deep holes (one per 10 miles}
35 -50 ft. deep holes (one
per 10 miles)
Major Fault
Lines Test Trenching
Geo~ysical (seismic} Gravity Survey
FOR SEISMIC STUOY
I2 test trenches lt six site~
NOTES:
*Avera1ge depth of holes is expected to be 275 feet .and total drilling length approximately 3,025 feet, of \<lflfch 1000 feet will be completed comp ete in the 1980 .program. This would increase total at site to 5,025 feet.
**Average depth of holes is expected to be 350 feet and total drilling length approx1mately2,000 feet, of ..tt1ch 600 feet w111 be completed in the 1980 program. This would increase total at s1te to 5,450 feet.
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Subtask 5~-06 -Exploration Program {lJ)Bl}
(a) Objective
Complete surface and subsurface investigations at Watana and Devil
Canyon sites~ reservoir areas, access roads and transmission line
routes to the extent necessary to provide adequate data to confirm
project feasibility and for submission of the FERC license applica ... -
tion. -
{b) Discussion
This program will esse~tially be designed to
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-complete ·t'he investigation of the surface and subsurface ~;eology
and foundation conditions at the Watana and De vi 1 Canyon dam site
to a level sufficient to ensure safety of design of major
structures and foundations and reliable project construction cost
estimates.
-establish detailed geological conditions and geotechnical proper-·
ties of potential construction material sources to ensure the
adequate availability of embankment fill.
-undertake a detailed evaluation of the geological features and
geotechnical conditions in the Watana and Devil Canyon reservoir
areas to ensure the ~afety and integrity of the impoundments.
-to determine the surface and near surface geology and foundation
conditions along the selected access road and transmission line
routes to ensure technical and economic feasibility for submission
of the FERC license application.
F'iald work programs will gener.ally be designed by Acres• Anchorage
Office personnel with input from the Buffalo design group as needed ..
Seismologic input t;Jill be provided by WCC and logistical support by
R&M. All field operations will be performed by R&M wi.th appropri.ate
technical inspection and supervision by Acres and WCC staff as
necessaryo
(c) Damsites
The proposed exploratory investigations at the dam sites will
co~prise geologic mapping~ diamond drilling, geophysical in-hole
seismic testing, borehole camera studies., test trenches and labora-
tory testing.
The expl!'r=itory methods used in this program will be involved in
collectin~ ~~~tailed information to augment and complement that
obtained in 1980. The surface geological mapping will be completed.
Outcrops will be located by survey and mapped in detail. Adverse
geological features will be further investigated on the surface.
Exploratory drilling will be performed at both sites in the various
structure areas on both abutments and in the riverbed to determine
foundation conditions. Diamond drills of the Longyear 34 type ot>
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equivalent will be used. Split-spoon and Shelby tube sampling, as
well as standard penetration tests will be performed in the
overburden .. · NX-s i ze core wi 11 be dri 11 ed and double-tube core
barrels will be employed for maximum core recovery •
Some boreholes will penetrate to a depth equal to the head to
evaluate deep seated conditions. Permeability testing will be
perform~d and piezometers will be installed. Major discontinuities
suggested by previous drilling or surface mapping will be further
explored by drilling and verified. Potential l_eakage channels, the
depth of weathered rock on the abutments and the depth of overburden
in the riverbed will be probed by drilling. Riverbed drilling at
each site will be undertaken during the winter months to take
advantage of the ice cover. Drills will be moved by helicopter.
Drilling operations will be performed by R&M with inspection and
review by Acres• Anchorage office personnel.
The evaluation of the foundation rock conditions will be further
supplemented by in-hole geophysical testing and borehole camera
studies. The in-hole geophysical testing wh·ich will be done by R & M
will provide a relative m~asure of the rock quality, and more
specifically, the deformation modulus. The borehole camera studies
which \'1111 be done by Acres will serve to evaluate the in-situ rock
jointing characteristics. D
Permafrost conditions will be closely studied with the assistance of
thermal probes installed in boreholes. Test trenches will be used to
assist in the geological mapping process •
Laboratory testing will be carried out for the purpose of describing
the overburden characteristics. Samples of foundation overburden
material which may be left in place beneath the dam structure will
also be tested for static and dynamic shear strength under high
confining pressure. Samples of weak) clay-filled seams in the rock
will be.taken and subjected to direct shear strength testing.
Samples of rock core will be subjected to sonic velocity and for
unconfined uniaxial compressive strength tests. Laboratory sonic
velocities will be compared to the field in-hole geophysical testing.
Samples of jointed rock also will be tested for frictional shear
strength along discontinuities. Most of the laboratory testing will
be performed by R&M with some assistance from WCC and technical
supervision by Acres' Anchorage office personnel.
(d) Construction Materials
The exploratory investigations will essentially comprise diamon'd
drilling, test trenching and laboratory testing. Some geologic
mapping and geophysical studies will also be undertaken. Emphasis
will be placed on firming up the quantity estimates and proving the
quality of available borrow materials. New bort .. ow areas may also be
explored. Dri 11 ing \vi 11 be carried out in both borrow areas and
potential rock quarries. Split-spoon and Shelby tube sampling and
standard penetration tests will be performed. Drills will be moved
by helicopter. Drilling will be done by R&M, with inspection and
review by Acres.
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A considerable amount of labo.ratory testing of the borrow material
samples will be undertaken in addition to the routine soil
identification tests~ Proctor compaction testing~ permeabi.lity
testing and concrete-aggregate testing!J i.ncluding static, dynamic and
direct shear strength testing.. Strength tests will consist of
consolidated undrained tests with pore pressure measurements on
pervious and impervious materials. The dynamic tests also will be
done under high confining pressure and on pervious and impervious
materia 1 • A 1 imited number of direct shear tests rnay be made on
impervious materials.
Laboratory testing on the borrow materials :v;ill be performed mainly
by R&M with assistan~e from WCC and technical inspection by Acres.
{e) Reservoir Areas
To avoid unnecessary duplication of work, this task will be closely
coordinated with the wee Task 4 studies.
The investi-gations to be carried comprise geologic mapping, auger and
diamond drilling, seismic refraction surveys, reservoir slope moni-
toring and laboratory testing. Adverse features identified in the
1980 program will be further exploredG
A minor amount of laboratory soil identification testing will be
undertaken for the reservoir studies. These tests will provide data
which will assist in establishing the yeoloyy.
With ~he exception of the geologic mappings all of the reservoir
investigations will be done by R&M, with technical supervision by
Acres.
(f) Access Road Routes
The exploratory investigations along the selected access road corri-
dors will comprise geologic mapping and airborne radar imagery
studies to amplify the 1-980 work. In· addition, in· 1981 portable
auger and hollow-stem auger~ diainond dri11;ing and laboratory testing
work will be undertaken.
Preliminary access route selection studies will be undertaken in Task
2 and detailed designs under Task 6. The field investigations \'Jil1
be designed to achieve a minimum level geological and geotechnical
understanding of the conditions along the selected route on a recon-·
naissance scale. This will permit an assessment of the general con-
ditions as well as those problems likely to affect the design and ·
construction of the access road s1gnificantly. Feasibility cost
estimates will then be facilitated.
Exploratory investigations will generally concentrate on the surface
and near surface soil and rock distribution, types and properties,
permafrost limits, groundwater conditions, potential landslide areas
and the availability and suitability of construction materials.
Potential bridge sites will require more detailed studies of the
abutment foundation conditions.
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The type of investigation·and scope of work for a particular type at
a given site will depend on the ant·icipated foundation conditions:. as
determined by al-r;;.photo interpretation and geological inference, and
the foundation r~quirements.
The general study approach will be first to perform the hollow-stem
auger dri 11 i ng and sampling at designated sites during th;e winter
months.. A track-mounted dt""i 11 can best carry out this work with
least cost and environmental damage, except in wooded areas as·
previously indicated. Later, in the snow-free season, geological
mapping, airborm~ radar imagery, portable auger drilling and sampling
will be done. Tite mapping will establish the general overburden and
bedrock geology (surface distribution, types and properties) and will
verify the photo.interpretation. The airborne radar~ imagery will be
used to delineate areas of permafrost and freedra i ni ng granular
deposits. Shallow auger holes will probe the near-surface geology.
Soil samples from the winter and surrmer drilling will be selected for
routine laboratory identification tests as well as unconfined
compressive strength tests and Proctor compaction tests.
The laboratory work and most of the exploratory work will be per-
fanned by R&M with geological mapping and technical supervision by
Acres • Anchorage office staff.
(g) Transmission line Routes
The exploratory investigations along the transmission line will
comprise geologic mapping., airborne radar imagery studies, portab 1 e
auger, hollow-stem auger, diamond drilling and laboratory testing.
The most feasible transmission 1 ine route will be selected in Task 8.
The basic approach adopted to geotechnical explorations will be
simi1 ar to that for the access road route ..
The investigations will be performed with specific tower foundations
in mind, i.e., anchored footings in rock, spread or mat footings in
granular deposits 3 pi1es or· caissons in silt and clay. Sections of
transmission line on well-drained, granular deposits of rock will
require less detailed study. Detailed drilling and sampling, how-
ever~ will be done in areas of soft, compr·essible or thaw-unstable
foundations. Vane shear strength testing will be reqaired in soft
compressible foundations. In these potential problem areas, infonna-
tion will be required on the type, stratigraphy and properties of the
soil foundation. Foundations of towers at points of line direction
change will require special attention due to th.e most stringent
foundation requirements.. Foundations of towers at the ends of 1 ong·
spans or on ·potentially unstable slopes will also require special
attention.
R&M will perform the field explorations and laboratory testing with
geologic mapping and technical supervision by Acres. ·
(h) Schedule
Weeks 56 through 91
'I Subtask_ 5~07 -Exploratqr,y Program Design {1982-1984)
I (a) Objectiv~
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Design of the geotechnical exploratory investigations program for
1982-1984 to obtain basic design data for Watana damsite, dam
construction materials and reservo·fr area, and for the selected
access road and transmission line routes.
(b) Approach
A great deal of exploratory information will have been obtained prior
to 1982 and a substantial amount of safe, reliable, proJect component
de.si gns undertaken prior to submission of the FERC 1 icense appl ica-
l> tion. Although this \'lork will be adequate to ensure project fea?i-
bility with a reasonable level of confidence, further exploratory
work is essential to minimize the possibility of unforeseen condi-
tions which could potentially impact the safety and cost of major
structures. This exploratory work will provide the necessary input
to the ongoing detailed design work through commencement of project
construction. Based on the Corps studies to date, it is currently
anticipated that construction of the Watana diversion scheme will be
the first activity to follow award of the FERC 1 icense.. The adopted
diversion scheme \1111 in turn depend· to a large extent in the layout
of the major project components. It. is 'l;herefore anticipated that
following submission of the FERC license application for the Susitna
Project, further exploration investigations will be necessary to
fully determine in detail all significant geologic and geotechnical
factors affecting the following:
-the diversion tunnels and cofferdams
-the dam and other major structure foundation treatment and designs
-the availability of adequate supplies of cofferdam construction
materials .
-subsurface design conditions at the proposed locations of under-
ground structures
-the potential for ground instability as a result of erosion
adjacent to diversion tunnel spillway and tailrace discharges
-the watertightness and integrity of the reservoir
-design of access roads
(c) Discussion
The extent and scheduling of this additional exploratory work will be
influenced to a great extent by the findings of the 1980 and 1981
programs and the development of project designs .. This subtask will be
undertaken in late 1981 and early 1982 with a view to ensuring con-.
tinuity of exploratory work in 1982 and beyond. The major portion of
this subtask will be undertaken by Acres • Anchorage office staff with
appropriate input and support by wee and R&M.
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The scheduling of th~ 1982-1984 program will be significantly
affected by the avaf~ability of access facilities. Although certain
portions of the program can be accomplished within the same
environmental constraints as" those undertaken in 1980 and 1981, other
portions of the 1982r-l984 program will require the access road to be
avail able for "use. Thus:~ for the purpose of this plan of study, it
is assumed that the access road wi 11 be designed and the necessary
permits obtained by conmencement of the 1982 cottstruction season.
For purposes of this plan of study, it has been assumed that the
selected access road route will commence at a staging area to b.e
constructed at the railroad at Gold Creek and essentially follow the
left bank of the Susitna River to the Watana site.. Bridges will be.
required at several ravine and river crossings. Bridge abutment
foundations will be somewhat more closely investigated than the
general a1 ignment of the road. Slightly modified routes and bridge
sites also may ~e investigated. New borrow areas may be studied.
Proposed high rock and soil cuts will be explored for stability.
·Further drilling may be required to finn up the pennafrost
characteristics.
The 1982-1984 program of exploratory inv·est'igations for transmission
lines will comprise further hollow-stem auger drilling and sampling~
vane ·.shear testing, laboratory testing and geological mapping, if
necessary. The.se tools will be used to obtain considerably more data
on the general and the geotechnical conditions which affect the
design of the transmission line.
Pump well ttesting in the riverbed will be required in areas of deep
and pervious riverbed overburden. This testing will be used to
estimate representative permeability values for design of riverbed
excavation dewatering systems.
The 1982-1984 laboratory testing program will be designed to
determine reliable values for the overburden properties. These data,
together with standard penetration test data will be essential in
defining the extent of removal of materia 1 s under the proposed dams.
(d) Construction Materials
{e)
More diamond drilling, trenc~&ing and laboratory testing will also be
required in the construction material areas. Thi~ program will be
designed to further substantiate the availability and .properties of
·rockfill, impervious, semipervious and pervious earthfill., rockfill
and rip-rap materials. Sampling wf11 again be done by split spoon or
Shelby tube. Laboratory testing as described in Table A5o5 will be
expanded to include several large triaxial shear strength tests in
earth and rockfill under high confining loads.
Reservoir Areas
The proposed 1982-1984 investigation program will be designed to
amplify the infor·mation obtained in 1980 and 1981. Final drilling.
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and instrumentation will be completed in the reservoir areas. The
program will include diamond drilling, reservoir slope monitoring and
laboratory testing. These exploratory tools will be used to obtain
detailed data en geotechnical conditions in potential problem areas
such as pervious buried channels in the reservoir rim or unstable
rservoir slopes. Further geological mapping may be required for
adverse features identified in the 1981 program. Potentially
unstable slopes will continue to be monitored together with
piezometric levels.. ·· --·
A re 1 at i ve 1y sma 1 1 amount of laboratory testing wi 11 be undertat.-
.for the reservoir area in this phase.
(f) Access Roads and Transmission Lines
The scheduling of the remaining exploration for the access roads is
such that this work will have to be completed in early 1982. For
transmission lines, on the other hand, the program can be spread over
a longer period without affecting overall scheduling of the project.
The data requirements for the design of th.e roads and transmission
lines, although fewer than for the dams, are similar in scope ..
Minimum detailed information on the overburden properties such as
compressibility, shear strength~ permeability and compaction
characteristics, and rock quality and strength (for the bedrock),
will be required for the basic design.
Thus, for the access road and transmission line areas, additional
foundation drilling, sampling and laborator·y testing will be required
in this program. Firm quality and quantity estimates of construction
materials will be required for the access road.. In the transmission
line, drilling and sampling will be-required for each tower founda-
tion.. Foundation drilling for the access roads and transmission
1 i nes is best undertaken in the winter months by means of a track-.
mounted, hollow-stem auger diamond drill ..
{g) Schedule
Weeks 95 through 120
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Subtask 5.08 -Data Compilation
(a) Objective
Assemble all geotechnical exploratory data into documents suitable
for inclusion in relevant project reports and 1 icensing
docliUentati on.
(b) J1Eproach
Data to be compiled will include the following:
-air-photo interpretation
geologic mapping
-seismic and resistivity data
borehole logs
-auger hole logs
test trench logs
airborne radar imagery data
-laboratory test data
The test trench logs will be prepared to describe the overburden in
the borrow areas. Laboratory testing data will be incorporated into
these logs.. Seismic and resistivity profiles will be prepared to
show the ground surface and .the bedrock topography. This infonnation
wii11 be combined and used to prepare preliminary site geology maps
and sections which will fonn the basis for the preliminary geotechni-
Cctl .assessments to be performed in Task 6. The maps and sections
wiill show the overburden and bedrock surface distribution, types and
characteristics, faults, jointing, permafrost areas, potentially
unstable slope or poor foundation areas and buried channels. Geo-
1 ogic maps wi 11 range from reconai ssance seale in the reservoir areas
to 1 imited detail in the damsite areas.
Borehole and test trench logs for the 1982 program will be used to
substantiate and improve the geological maps and sections and to show
surface and subsurface geology and geotechnical conditions of
importance to the design and construction of the dams, access roads
and transmission lines.
{c) Discussion
(d)
Although R&M and wee will provide some input to this subtask, all
final compilation of data will be undertaken by Acres in its
Anchorage and Buffalo offices •
Compi1 ed data wi 11 be attached to the periodic reports issued as the
work progresses. Detailed repot"ts surrmarizing all the exploratory
investigations will be prepared at the end of each exploration
season.
Schedule
Weeks 5 through 125
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A. 5. 7 ... TASK 6: . DESIGN DEVELOPMENT
(i) Task Objectjves
To undertake planning studies, to evaluate, analyze and review all
previous engineering studies related to hydroelectric development of
the Upper Susitna River Basin and to develop preliminary engineering
design and cost information for Watana and Devil Canyon Dam sites
with all associated intake, outlet .works, spillways and power
facilities to allow preparation of a project 'feasibility report.
(ii) Task Outpu!
The primary output of Task 6 will be a logical and systematic devel-
OJlllent of the requisite project features.. Alternative sites for
dams and power developments will be evaluated. Alternative
arrangements at·each site will also be considered. One such
alternative will involve a 30-mile long power tunnel from ~latana to
Devil Canyon to eliminate the high dam at that site. A Development
Selection Report will be issued on or about Week 65-of the Study for
review and approval by Alaska Power Authority. Preliminary findings
of the study wi 11 be discussed on or about Week 50, in order to
establish whether or not work on two dam sites should .continue or
whether more viable alternatives exist and should be examined.
Design transmittals wi'11 be at appropriate points in the study. All
necessary input from parallel tasks including hydrology,
geotechnical, economic, seismic, survey, and environmental studies
will be factored into the planning studies and the development of
the various features of the project. Engineering evaluation ·
criteria and project definition will be developed. If sites are
found to b_e technically viable, economically feasible and
environmentally acceptable, additional -studies and investigations
wi 11 be conducted to establish the feasibility of the project and
the optimum seale and sequence of development.
(iii) List of Subtasks
Subtask 6.01 -Review of Previous Studies
Subtask 6.02 -Investigate Tunnel Alternative
Subtask 6. 03 -Evi=.i1 uate Alternative Susitna Developments
Subtask 6. 04 -Evaluation of Arch Dam at Devil Canyon Site
Subtask 6.05 -Development Selection Report
Subtask 6.06 -Watana/Oevll Canyon Staged Development Alter·natives
Subtask 6.07 -Preliminary Watana Dam Alternatives
Sub task 6.08 -Preliminary Devil Canyon Dam Alternatives
Subtask 6.09 -Establish Watana Design Criteria
Subtask 6.10 -Establish Devi1 Canyon Design Criteria
Subtask .6 .11 -Preliminary ~D.e:si gn ~Jatana Dam
Subtask 6.12 -Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Dam
Subtask 6.13 -Dam Selection Report
Subtask 6.14 -Spi.llway Design Criteria
Subtask 6.15 -Watana Spillway Alternatives
Subtask 6.16 -Devil Canyon Spillway Alternatives
Subtask 6.17-Preliminary Design Watana Spillway
Subtask 6.18 -Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Spillway
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Subtask 6.19 -Spillway Selection Report
Subtask 6.20 -Access and Camp Facilities
Subtask 6.21 -Watana Diversion Scheme
Subtask 6.22 -Devil ·canyon Diversion Scheme
Subtask 6.23 -Optimize Watana Power Development
Subtask 6. 24 -Optimize Oevi 1 Canyon Power Development
Subtask 6.25 -Optimize Dam Heights
Subtask 6.26 __ -Preliminary Design Watana Power Development
Subtask 6.27 -Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Power Development
Subtask 6.28 -Power Development Report
Subtask 6.29 -Watana General Arrangement
Subtask 6.30 -Devil Canyon General Arrangement
Subtask 6.31 -Feasibility Report
(iv) Subtask-Scope Statements
Plate T6ol illustrates the interrelationship of various subtask
studies and-the logical input of various other tasks. The subtasks
have been specifically arranged to make maximum use of input from
various other tasks including Tasks 1 through 5 and 7 through 9.
A detaiied 'discussion of the objeGtives" the methodologies and
associated costs and schedu1 ing for each subtask follo~1s. Note that
for the purpose of this plan of. study Sl it has been assumed that only
Watana and Devil C~nyon sites will be considered for additional
field exploration and analysis. However~ in the initial subtasks_,
all possible sites and modes of development on the Susitna will be
examined to confirm that the Watana/Devil Canyon arrangement is the
most appropriate.
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Subtask 6.01 -Review of Pt~evioJ!s Studies and Reports
(a) Objective
Assemble and review all available engineering data, siting and
economic studies relating both to the susitna hydropower development_
and to a 1 ternat i ve potentia 1 sites.
(b) ApQroach
Reports and also field reconnaissance studies generated by various
agencies including USBR, the Corps of Engineers, Kaiser and others
will be reviewed to assess the design assumptions for the sites. ·
Infonnation obtained from these reports, including reservoir storage
and power head, site evaluation, geologic and seismic conditions,
topographic features and other special physical and environmental
constraints, Vlill be tabulated. Total potential for po\'ler development
at each site and the associated costs will be assembled in tabular
form; costs will be updated to current levels for comparison. Sites
studied will inc1 ude all those identified in the previous reports.
Layouts for all sites and special constraints for each site will be
identified. All conceptual design parameters will be developed to
update the cost of each site to a uniform level in order to rank the
sites. The task will include the indexing of all basic infonnation
that could be used in analysis under Subtask 6.03. Indexing will
include all basic infonnation on nature, type and extent of geotech-
nical investigations previously completed, maximum level of develop-
ment considered for each site, type and size of dam selected, type and
size of spillway considered for each site studied, and on-line dates
considered in the previous reports. Other data to be indexed will
include reservoir storage, average, maximum and minimum flow, regula-
ted flm.,, power capacity and energy development at each site, equiva-
1 ent construction costs and other factors; such as special environ-
mental and seismic impact on each site.
(c) Discussion
The level of study previously undertaken for each site varies consid-
erably, not only with respect to geotechnical investigations and
)rel iminary planning, but also in relation to hydrologic and economic
assessment. Project ranking techniques and cost updating criteria
will necessarily have to include additional cost parameters and
analysis. These data will be used at the specified level of develop-
ment as an input to Task 6.03.
In order to meet the overall objectives of the subtask, a critical
review and assessment will be made of all technical information on
power capacities; and other constraints for the development of each
site will be identified. Previous work has identified six darn sites
for which ranges of heights ~nd power installation have been
considered~ These site~ will be analyz_ed in order to select the
projects which are both technically feasible and economically
attractive for i_nitial construction and are compatible with the plan
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for hydropower development of the ~ntire basin. !t i·s likely that
some of the sites will be rejected in initial screening because of
poor foundations or because of very high cost of development.
Previous studies have demonstrated that the Watana and Devil Canyon
sites are probably the most f~vored~ hut tf the studies under this
task indicate otherwise di scuss1nns with the Alaska Power Authority
will be scheduled immediately.
All cost data from the previous reports will be updated to 1980 cost
levels* As project costs are highly dependent not only upon site
foundation conditions, size of spillway and outlet works, but also
upon whether a low level outlet is provided, costs will be adjusted to a conmon design.
{d) Schedule
Weeks 25 through 40
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Subtask 6602 ~ Investigate Tunnel Alternatives
(a} Objective
To investigate the feasibility of a scheme for development of the
Susitna River eliminating the Devi 1 Canyon project by the substitution
of a tunnel-supplied power plant fed from the Watana dam site.
{b) AJ?proach
, A pre 1 imi nary review of the proposed Watana/Oevi 1 Canyon deve 1 opment
of the Susitna River suggests that a feasible alternative, which would
allow the elimination of the major reservoir formed by the Devil
Canyon dam~ would comprise the construction of a power tunnel starting
at, or near, the currently proposed Watana site and terminating at a
power plant near the proposed Devil Canyon site as illustrated in
Plate T6.2.
In addition to the reduced environmental impact brought about by the
elimination of the Devil Canyon dam and lake, the tunnel alternative
would eliminate a major dam~ reduce the size of one power plant., and
allO\\* a much larger proportion of the construction work to be located
underground, shielded from severe Alaskan winters.
Potential disadvantages of th~ tunnel alternative include loss of
power output due both to head losses in the tunnel and to the neces-
sity to rna i nta in flow in the river bet\'/een Watana and the 1 ower· power
plant tailrace. The considerable length of the tunnel would require
the provision of several construction adits with corresponding
environmental impacts during constructiona
In order to make an initial assessment as to whether this alternative
should ce carried forward into more detailed evaluation, the following
activities are proposed:
(1) On the basis of the material assembled in Subtask 6.01, a number
of tunnel alternative arrangements will be identified~ Some
preliminary concepts are shown in Plate T6.2. Several others
incorporating different tunnel alignments and intake/power plant
locations will be identified.
{2) These initial alternatives will be subjected to a gross scTeening
to eliminate those least likely to meet economic, technical or
environmental requirements. Preliminary layouts will be develop-
ed for those remaining and major dimensional and design charac-
teristics will be established. ·
(3) Preliminary quantity and cost estimates will be prepared for the
selected tunnel alternatives, together with corresponding cash
flows.
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(4) Estimates of capacity and energy for each of the alternatives will be developed.
(5) The most attractive of the tunnel alternatives will be compared
from the technical, economic, and environmental standpoints with
other options for the river development identified in Subtask 6.03.
(c) 'Discussion
The tunnel alternative to _the Devil Canyon project would appear~ from
initial review, to have some rather attractive features which may
warrant careful evaluation. From the environmental standpoint, the
elimination of the large Devil Canyon reservoir must be a signi-ficant
step. This may, of course, be offset to some extent by the increased
1i ve storage to be. provided at Watana and by the poss i b 1 e wider spread
of construction activity during tunnel construction. Initial "order
of magnitude" cost estimates seem to indicate at least a trade-off
level of cost for the tunnel alternative, without assessing the impact
on the schedu 1 e and power gene~~ at ion capabi 1 it i es of the 1 ong power tunnel.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 30 through 50
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Subtask 6.03 -Evaluate Alternative Susitna Developments
"
(a} Objective
To identify the most appropriate scheme for development of the Susitna
River on the initial basis of technical feasibility and cost.
{b) ~proach
(c)
Primary input for this subtask from the cost and technical standpoints
will be derived from the review of previous studies (Subtask 6.01) and
from the investigation of the "tunnel alternativesu (Subtask 6.02).
Further input will be provided from the hydrological studies under-
taken in Task 3 and from tlie public participation program carried out
under Task 12. This subtask ·w·'!-l involve the development, comparison
and subsequent ranking of all reasonably feasible combinations of
sites and power facilities identified either in the previous studies·
or in the course of J!cres studies to this ti.me. Economic parameters
for a range of darn heights and power installations will be developed
for each site and for the complete river development; these will be
analyzed by computer to identify the most promising scheme •
Specific activities will include:
-Evaluation of six previously identified sites including Susitna I
and II, Denali, Vee, Watana and Devil Canyon and other sites, for
which data will be obtained from the review of literature (Subtask
6.01).
-Data on rated head, regu 1 a ted flow, yi e 1 d and power av a i 1 ab 1 e from
previous reports for these sites will be developed and the value and
cost of power for each site will be compared. Only previous layouts
and engineering information generated will be evaluated.
-Data on foundation co·nditions, availability of construction
materials, limits of development of each site, access conditions.,
seismic and environmental conditions for each site will be reviewed
in site-ranking studies.
-Sites with extremely poor foundation conditions and other serious
constraints related to seismic or environmental impact will be
rejected.
-A· summary report on this ranking study will be prepared.
Discussion
By this stage of the study, costs of alternative power and energy will
be available for economic comparison and development of cost-benefit
ratios of each individual site, and by combination for each set of
developments discussed above. It would appear from previo·us studies
that the combination of Watana and Devil Canyon sites is the most
promising development, and it is expected that the results of this
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work Wn1 verify this. However, if the results of the study indicate
otherwise, the 1 ayout, costs and deta i 1 s of the a 1 ternati ve ar-range~
ment will be brought to the same level as the studies for the 1979
report by the Corps of Enginee;-s for the Watana and Devil Canyon
sites. The evaluation will rank the sites or the combination of
various sites with power capability at each, and establish associated
costs and cost~benefit ratios for each combination studied. Alterna~
ttves will include combinations of Watana dam sites and power tunnels.
The results of these studies will be documented in the form of a
memorandum which Will form a basis for further studies. The report
wi11 explain the rnerhanics of the evaluation process and the rationale
of specific site and combinations of sites, foundation suitability and
availaPil ity of construction materials. Economic comparisons from
cost/benefit analysis wi 11 i nd i cat e the en vi ronmenta 1 impact on each
such site. The selected alternative will be that which proves to be
the most favorable for development of the Upper Susitna Basin.
(d} Schedule
Weeks 40 through 60
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Subtask 6.04 -Evaluation of Arch Dam at Devil .Canyon Site
.(a) Objective
To make a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of an arch dam at
the Devil Canyon site.
{b) l\pproach
The original. development at the Devil Canyon site recommended by the
Corps of Engineers incorporated a 635 foot high double curvature thin
arch dam with a crest length of 1~370 feet. Following critical
comment by.the OMB, the Corps, in their Supplemental Feasibility
Report {1979), proposed an alternative which would replace the arch
dam with a more costly gravity dam. The primary rationale was the
reduced sensitivity of the gravity dam to foundation and abutment
conditions. ·
~le will critically review the feasibility of an arch dam at the Devil
Canyon site from both economic and technical aspects, as well as the
overall safety aspect.
The re~iew and evaluation will comprise the following: .
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
Assembly and review of all available material relating to the
arch dam design recommended in the Corps' report and earlier in
Bureau of Reclamation reports.
A critical examination of all geotechnical data relating to the
foundation and abutment conditions at the proposed dam site.
These data· may well include further information obtained in the
course of the ongoing field investigations.
A critical review of the seismic conditions at the site, part·icu-
1ar1y in the light of material developed in the course of Task 4
Seismicity Studies. . .
A review of current design practice in relation to high arch dam
design in seismically sensitive areas.
The development of the draft design of an arch dam appropriate to
the conditions at Devil Canyon. Design will be accompanied by
associated schedule and cost estimate, including impact on asso-
ciated structures.
~ Review of proposed design by Special Consultants and modifi.ca-
tions as required.
Final evaluation of feasibility of the arch dam from the techni-
cal, economic and safety standpoints and development of a recom-
mendation as to whether an arch dam or another design of dam
should be carried through to the licensing documentation.
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(c) Discussion
The arch dam des_ign at De vi 1 Canyon was supplemented with an alterna-
tive conventional gravity design by the Corps in the 1979 Supplemental
Report. Economic feasibility of the ptoject using more conservative
design approaches was demonstrated. An underlying concern regarding
the safety of arch dams in high zones is evinced by the recent
decision regarding the Auburn dam.
However, it is of interest to note that as reported in a recent issue
of Water Power and Dam Construction, April 1979, not one failure of a
concrete dam directly caused by earthquakes has ever been recorded.
Linear analytical techniques for evaluation of the response of con-
crete structures to seismic -forces have evolved, the most widely used
being the finite· element technique. Acres recently utilized this
technique to evaluate the Karun high arch dam proposed in Iran with a
height of 325 meters. In general, concrete dams perform very well
when subjected to earthquakes. Of the types available.,· arch dams
generally have proven to perform the best and buttress dams have been
·' subject to the severest damage because of abrupt change in section and
the resultant stress concentrators.
The V-shape canyon with a ratio· of 2.15 (width at crest level--1 ,370
feet ·to depth--635 feet) is favorab 1 e for a doub 1 e c-urvature arch dam.
As an example, the experience of dam building in Japan can be cited.
The average seismic intensity experienced at various types of Japanese
dams (in 12 point scale) is:
-gravity dams •••••••••••••••• 9.8
-arch and arch gravity ••••••• 10
-rockfill dams ···~··········· 8.5
Such high arch dams as Kurobe (186 rn}, Nagovado (155 m}, Iagisawa
(131 m), Takane (130 m), Kawamata (120 m) and others were built in
areas with earthquake intensity 10 to 11 points.
There are a number of approaches which can be used to condition the
abutments of arch dams to weaknesses of the rock. Stresses in the
foundation may be reduced, not only by increasing the abutment tbtck ....
ness of the arch, but also by using abutment pads. In addition to
being a very satisfactory means of spreading arch thrusts, abutment
pads provide an effic'ient means of bridging faults and other weakness-
es in the foundation. Abutment pads are applied on the world•s
highest arch dams at Ingury (U.S.S.R. 271 m) and were proposed for the
Auburn dam (U.S.A. 209m).
Severe weather conditions will cause serious problems for both dam
types. Besides the necessity to prevent freezing and cracking of
concrete during construction, a serious consideration will be consoli-
dation of the dam body and rock base •
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In Russian dams built in Siberia, gr·outing joints between monoliths
were replaced by slots 1.2 m wide backfilled with concrete after
cooling the monolith below the avera9e annual temperature {the average
anrtual temperature in the core of the dam is 2°C to 3°C higher than
the ·average annual temperature of the area). If the area average
temperature is below zero, the concrete should be cooled to a tempera-.
ture of not more than +1 to +2°C. Such a procedure involves a long
time and high cost. The Russian Mamakan and Zeya dams are hammerhead
type (buttress type). This type of dam provides easy access to the
slots from the hollow spaces. Concreting of the slots is performed
after warming up the surfaces.of slots by means of electric heaters.
After filling the reservoir, the temperature of the dam body will rise
and the concrete plugs will be compressed.
Another problem is prevention of the negative effect on the stress
state of the dam caused by freezing of the downstream part of the dam.
Static analysis and model tests performed for gravity dams located in
Siberia (annual average temperature -2°C to -4°C) showed that for the
winter, the frost can penetrate to the center of the dam, causing
opening of the horizontal joints and~ as a consequence, tensile
stresses on the upper face of the dam (reductions in the compressive
stresses of up to 30 percent were demonstrated). For this.reason,
hammerhead or massive buttress dams with heating inside the hollows
were built in Russia (Mamakan, Zeya, Bratsk, Buchtarma} instead of
massive gravity dams. At the Mamakan dam~ the electric heating system
is in operation for one to one and a half months a year, and the
capacity of the heaters is 80 kW. Another method of preventing freez-
ing is to insulate the downstream face of the dam.
Consolidation of an arch dam is much easier because arch dams do not
have longitudinal construction joints. Concreting of the slots after
cooling the monolith below the average temperature will produce an
. effect similar to heating gravity monoliths. In general, arch dams,
since they are more flexible and smaller volume working structures,
can cope more easily with severe temperature conditions than gravity
dams.
Nonetheless, some improvements of the presently proposed arch dam are
1 ikely to be necessary.
{a) An abutment pad should be used. It functions as a transition
structure between arch and rock, and as such, may be thick.ened,
widened and reinforced as necessary. In addition, the'abutment
pad may be used to improve symmetry of the canyon profile.
(b) A two--centered dam layout with two separate pairs of lines of
centers, one for each side of the dam, should be used to cope
with the unsymmetrical shape of the canyon.
(c) The slenderness of the dam is ~~5 6 = 0.135
{base thickness to height), and it requires reevaluation in
light of seismic and temperature conditions.
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The slenderness coefficient ,should probably be ·increased to 0.16
and the base thickness to 0.16 x 635 = 101.6 feet (31 m).
Note, however, that even if it is considered that .an earthfill,
rockfill dam or concrete-gravity dam should be considered for FERC
licensing application, some background information should be developed
for an arch dam. Later studies may possibly indicate technical
feasibility or economic and ~nvironmental desirability, and the option
to revert to the arch design should be maintained open for as long as possible.
{d) Schedule
Weeks 45 through 65
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Su~_tisk 6.05 -Development Selection Report
{a) Qt>jective
To document the results of the initial studies undertaken to establish
the optimum development of the Susitna River~
{b) Approach
This task will essentially comprise the detailed documentation of the
work undertaken ;·n Subtask 6.03 to compare and evaluate alternative
means of developing the full hydroelectric potential of the Susitna
River. The end product report, in addition to providing APA with an
interim recormnendation as to the continued direction of the study,
will be an essential vehicle for the transmission of information to
other tasks of the overall study, and in particular to Task 7 -
Environmental Studies, Task 8 -Transmission Studies and Task 9 -Cost
Estimates and Schedules*
The principal activites in this subtask will comprise the following:
-Assembly and review of material developed in Subtasks 6.01 through
6.03. .
-Assembly and review of material developed in other parallel tasks to
date, with particular reference to environmental studies (Task 7),
and to Tasks 3 through 5 covering hydrology, seismicity and geotech-
nical exploration~ Of particular jnterest from these parallel
studies will be the preliminary identification of major impacts on
the feasibility of various alternatives under study.
-Assembly of a draft report incorporating the key findings_ of the
studies to date and putting forward draft reco~endations for the
direction of continuing studies.
-Detailed review of the draft report with APA and Engineering Review
Panel.
Finalization and issue of report.
(c) Discussion
.
This report will be developed in close consultation with the APA and
will be issued as a public document. A key facet will be the recom-
mendation, arising from the studies in Subtask 6.01 through 6.03, as
to whether or not the Watana/Devil Canyon combination is the most
appropriate mode of development of the Susitna River. The balance of
the study program set out in this Plan ·of Study has been assembled on
the assumption that WatanaiDevil Canyon \'lill be selected. Should this
not prove to be the case, a major reassessment will have to be made of
the scope, cost and schedule for tlie balance of the work program lead-
ing to license application.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 50 through 65
Subtask 6 .. 06 -Watana and De vi 1 Canyon Staged D~y-~ 1 opment
(a) Objective
-~
Review the potential for staged development of Watana and Devil Canyon
to best meet projected pO\'ler and energy requirements and de'lelop a
staged construction plan.
(b) Appt'Oach
It is to be expected that the rate. of load growth i.n the geographical
area to which the Susitna Project will contribute will be such that. it
may be possible to obtain significant economies by a carefully-staged
sequence of construction and power facility installation. ~This con-
struction sequencing will have to be appropriately integrated With
basic construction scheduling, diversion and impounding requirements
for the two developments. The starting.point and primary source of
input data for this subtask will be the evaluation of alternative
modes of deve 1 opment camp 1 eted under Subtask 6. 03. The pri nci pa'l
activities to be undertaken include:
-From the po\'ter studies undertaken in Task 1, the anticipated rate
(or range of rates) of load growth will be established and agreed
upon with APA.
-Using the scheme~ of development recommended in Task 6. 04 as a. basis,
a series of alternative sequences of development will be asseobl ed.
These alternative sequences wi 11 incorporate phasing of dar.1, power
plant and transmission construction desigr}ed to match the rate{s) of
1 oad growth obtained above •
. -PreliRJinary cost estimates will be developed for each stage of each
of the development sequences.
-Estimates will be prepared of power and energy~ output throug,ilm!ut
each sequence of development.
-Construction cost estimates will be converted to annual cash/flow
figures.
-The comparative economics of the various sequences will be compared
on a net present worth basis using Acres' ECON computer program to
identify the most economic alternative. The comparisons will be
made for a range of interest and discount rates.
-Other aspects of the two or three most attractive alternatives will
be examined to assess potential environmental impacts. ~
-The most appropriate sequence of development for prelimin~ry design
of the Watana and Devil Canyon projects will be selected and design
transmittal for APA review will be prepared.
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(c) Discussion
The ultimate sequence of deve 1 opment could involve parti a 1-hei ght dam
construction, as well as partial install at ions of power plant capa-
city. Those sequences which involve operation at intermediate water
levels will require not only that special provisions be made in intake
and spillway designs, but also that the units be capable of continu-
ous, ·reliable and efficient operation at part head. Preliminary lay-
out sketches wi 11 have to be prepared for each of the stages of
development for each sequence, both to ensure that any potential
construction or design problems are identified and to provide a basis
for the take-off of preliminary quantities and costs.
Althougq it is obviously unwise to prejudge the issue at this stage,
it may well be that any attempt to extend the constructiun/instal-
1 ati on schedule to match the load demand wi 11 prove to be uneconomica 1
because of the high costs associated with extended maintenance or
restarting of a construction operation in the severe environment of
the Susitna River sites. Costs associated with construction in this
climate will be factored into the economic analyses ..
(d) Schedule
Weeks 60 through 75
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Subtask 6.07 -Preliminary Watana Dam Alternatives
(a). Objective
Establish the most appropriate type of dam for the Watana Site •
{b) Approach
On the assumption that the preliminary studies completed in Subtasks
6. 01 through 6. 03 show that the two-dam Watana/Oevi 1 Canyon scheme of
development is preferred, this subtask will revie\'r all previously
available datas and new information developed in the course of this
program of study to determine the most appropriate design for the!
Watana Site. The·following specific activities are envisaged:
-Assemble all available information for the Watana dam site with
regard to the following:
--topography (from Task 2)
soil conditions {Task 5)
rock conditions (Task 5)
construction materials (Task 5)
seismic conditions (Task 4)
-Develop preliminary design of alternative dams; these may includ•~=
--concrete gravity/buttress
--concrete arch
--rockfill/earthfill
-Prepare preliminary layout sketches of the selected designs and
obtain preliminary estimates of principal quantities, including:
excavation (soil and rock)
grouting
concrete and formwork
rockfill/earthfill
special fill materials such as transition or core material
-Review impact of alternative dam designs on other structures
including:
diversion tunnels and associated cofferdams
--spillway and outlet works
--intake/power tunnel/powerhouse systems ·
-Develop first-order cost estimates to measure ultimate effect on
overall cost of the facility for the various types of dam
-Develop preliminary cost estimates for alternative types of dam,
giving appropriate recognition to costs associated with:
--material sources
--weather conditions
--labor availability
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-Prepare construction schedules for the alternative types of dam, and
prepare annual cash flow estimates for the dams a.nd for the signifi-
cant costs associated with ancillary structures. Prepare summarized present-worth comparison of costs.
-Review ••othern factors, such as unknown foundation conditions,
construction considerations, seismicity and environmental effects
which might influence the selection of dam type.
-Assemble and assess results of subtask analyses, and select type of
dam for recommendation to the Engineering Panel and APA for ongoing stL. .... i es.
{c) Discussion
The design proposed by the Corps of Engineers for the Watana dam
comprises an 810 foot high rockfill structure with an inclined central
impervious core; the core, and a 11 Semi-porous fillJt zone, is flanked
by two fine/coarse filter zones. The Corps reports indicate that
explorations to dat~ have demonstrated the availability of sufficient
quantities of material for the core and semi-pervious zones, and
suggest that rockfill for the shells will be obtained from the excava-
tions for the spillway and from quarries open~d for the purpose.
•
The purpose of this subtask essentially will be to review the dam
selection made by the Corps in the light of the preliminary studies
and additional field exploration carried out to date during this study
program.. It is, of course, recognized that a rockfi11/earthfi11 dam,
which can be constructed from locally available materials and which
may be less sensitive to unknown foundation conditions, is most likely
to be the best choice for a site of this type. Ho\'tever, it will be
appropriate to make a careful review of this selection before proceed-
ing further with the design program to ensure that certain other
features of concrete-type dams, such as reduced intake, spillway and
diversion costs, might not offset the apparent advantages of the rockfill/earthfill design.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 60 through 75
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Subtask 6.08 .... Preliminary Devil Canyon Alternatives
(a) Objective
Establish the most appropriate axis and type of dam for the Devil
Canyon Site.
{b) A~: proach
If the preliminary studies completed in Subtasks 6 ... 01 through 6.03
show that the two-dam Watana/Devil Canyon scheme of development is
preferred, this subtask will review all available data, collected
previously and new information developed in the course of, this program
of study to determine the most appropriate design for the Devil Canyon
Site. Subtask 6.04 provides input for reviewing the feasibility of an
arch dam at Devil Canyon. After the most favorable alternative is
selected, various axes for the dam will be selected for economic
comparison. The following specific activities are envisaged:
-Assemble all available information for the Devil Canyon darn site
with regard to the following:
--topography (from Task 2}
soil conditions (Task 5)
rock conditions {Task 5)
construction materials (Task 5)
seismic conditions (Task 4)
-Develop preliminary design of alternative dams; these may include:
concrete gravity/buttress
concrete·arch (using, if appropriate, material developed in
Subtask 6.04)
rockfill/earthfill
-Prepare preliminary layout sketches of the selected designs and
obtain preliminary estimates of principal quantities, including:
excavation (soil and rock)
grouting/draingage
concrete and formwork
rockfill/earthfill
special fill materials such as transition or core material
-Review impact of alternative dam designs on other structures
including:
diversion tunnels and associated cofferdams
--spillway and outlet works
--intake/power tunnel/powerhouse systems
Develop first-order cost estimates to measure ultimate effect on
overall cost of the facility for the various types of dam
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(c)
(d)
-Develop preliminary cost estimates for the alternative types of dam,
giving appropriate recognition to costs associated with:
--material sources
--weather conditions
, --labor availability
-Prepare construction schedules for the alternative types of dam, and
prepare annual cash flow estimates for the dams and for the
significant costs associated with the ancillary structures~ Prepare
summarized present-worth comparison of,costs.
-Review ••other 11 factors, such as unknown foundation conditions,
construction considerations~· ~eismicity and environmental effects
which might influence the selection of dam type.
-Assemble and assess results of subtask analyses, and select type of
dam for recommendation to Engineering Panel and APA for ongoing
studies.
Discussion
The original design recommended by the Corps of Engineers for the
Devil Canyon.site was a double curvature arch dam; as discussed in
Subtask 6.04. This was subsequently supplemented by an alternative
conventional gravity dam to ensure that the estimate contained
sufficient cost to allow construction of either type should site
conditions allow. The feasibility of the construction of an arch dam
will be re-examined specifically in Subtask 6.04 7 and should results
of that work indicate no reason why it should be eliminated from
further contention, it will be included among the alternatives
examined here.
Schedule
Weeks 60 through 75
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Subtask 6.09 ~ Establish Design Criteria for the Watana Develoement
(a)
{b)
Objective
To estab 1 ish
deve 1 o pnent. preliminary design criteria for the ¥/atana hydroelectric
AJ2eroach
Documentation of the fo11 owing criteria related to the design of the
Watana development will be initiated in this subtasf<:
-Hydraulic: -reservoir levels
-storage volumes
-rule curves
-power flows
-Geotechnical: -foundation conditions .
-foundation treatment requirements
-construction materials properties
-seismic design conditions
-slope stability requirement, soil and rock
-Structural: -loading conditions
-uplift pressures
-wind 1 oads
-temperature conditions and loads
-material design properties
-stability analysis procedures
-Mechanical: -turbine design requirements
-power plant mechanical systems
-gate design requirements
-crane design requirements
-generator design requirements
-power plant electrical systems
-tr~~smission requirements
-ancillary electrical equipment requirements
-Electrical:
-General: -design codes and standards
-special Alaska or site-related requirements
-transportation limitations
-ice conditions
(c) Discussion
~
It is anticipated that the assembly of this design criteria document
wi 11 be undertaken over the period that the designs of the dam,
spillway and power plant are developed, and that this document will
provide the foundation of the design program in work subsequent to the license applications. ·
{d) Schecru 1 e .
Weeks 80 through 95
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Subtask 6.10 -Estab 1 ish Design Criteria for the Devil Canyon Development·
(a) Obj~ctive
To establish preliminary design criteria for the Devil Canyon
hydroe 1 ectri c dev e 1 o pment.
(b) Approach
Documentation of the following criteria relat('.-t to the design of the
Watana developnent will be initiated in this sur:rtask:
-Hydraulic: -reservoir l-evels
-storage volumes
rule curves
-power flows
-Geotechnical: -foundation conditions
-foundation treatment requirements
construction materials properties
-seismic design conditions
-slope stability requirement, soil and rock
-Structural: -loading conditions
-uplift pressures
-wind loads
-temperature conditions and loads
-materia1 design properties
-stability analysis procedures
-Mechanical: -turbine design requirements
-power plant mechanical systems
-Electrical:
-General:
{c) Discussion
-gate design requirements
-crane design requirements
-generator design requirements
power plant electrical systems
-transmission requirements
-ancillary electr·ical equipment requirements
-design codes and standards
-special Alaska or site-related requirements
transportation limitations
-ice conditions
It is anticipated that the assembly of this design criteria document
wi 11 be undertaken over the period that the designs of the dam,
spillway and power p1ant are developed 3 and that this document will
pro vi de the foundation of the design program in work subsequent to the
license applications~
(d) Schedule
We.eks 80 through 95
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Subtask 6~11 -Preliminary Design of Watana Dam
(a) Objective
To prepare the preliminary design and associated cost estimate and
construction schedule for the Watana Dam.
(b) Approach
This subtask will be initiated once the preliminary study of alterna-
tive.dam sections, undertaken in Subtask 6.08, -has been completed and
approved. The primary input to this subtask, once the type of dam has
been established, will be the results of the field investigations
(Task'S) and the seismic studies (Task 4). Cost estimating data will
be provided through Task 9. Specific activities to be undertaken will
include:
-Assembly and review of most recent field and seismic study data;
-Preparation of a preliminary layout of the dam dimensioned to meet
the basic requirements of the project design criteria;
-Development of appropriate preliminary design details, including
grouting and pressure relief provisions, foundation and abutment
preparation as required by the basic dam design within the context
of the geotechnical conditions;
-Preparation of prelimina.ry stability analyses for the ~ritical
conditions set out in the preliminary design criteria document
{Subtask 6.09}. Geotechnical design parameters to be provided on
the basis of results optained from the laboratory tests carried out
in Task 5. Specific conditions will depend upon the type of d~m
selected, but for a rockfill dam with a central core, would typical-
ly include:
end of construction conventional slope stability analysis
analysis of rapid dra\'/down conditions utilizing residual pore
pressures, and conventional stability analysis
evaluation of maximum W .. L. and seismic loads by dynamic analysis,
utilizing excess pore p~essure generation app.l ication tests
examination of stress and deformations by finite element
analysis
-Review and adjustment of design to accommodate anomalies indicated
in the course of the stability studies undertaken above
-Reservoir studies, including:
reservoir slope stability assessment in relation to thawing
permafrost and generation of high pore pressures
reservoir slope stab·ility during seismic events, including impact
on liquefaction-S,~ensitive soils and mass instabilities
snow slide assessment
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-Computation of quavtities and development of estimate of cost for
the dam and associated cofferdams and ... diversion tunnels
-Development of dam construction schedule
-Preparation of material for input to dam selection report
(c) Discussion
In the development of the dam design, the following key aspects will
be taken into account:
(1) Foundation and Abutment Conditions
(2)
Study of foundation and abutment conditions will include assess-
ment of the available information on overburden, bedrock, struc-
tural geology including identification of local shear zones,
faults and joint sets and the consolidation and strength
characteristics. Based on the parameters from the assessment,
the design wi 11 determine. foundation seepage~ permanent pressure
relief, foundation treatment, consolidation and curtain grouting
requirements, abutment stability, shaping of abutments, over-
burden and rock excavation requirements and excavation dewater-
ing. Special considerations will be given to excavation of loose
riverbed alluvium, talus materials near abutments.
Construction Materials
Study in detail the availability and suitability of ·construction
materials and their methods of exploitation for earth/rockfill
and concrete dams and other associated concrete structures.
Various sources of impervious material as well as a rock quarry
for rockfill materials and concrete aggregates will be investiga-
ted in the field. Evaluation of the field data and laboratory
test results will be done to determine the suitability of the
construction materials and the parameters to be used in the
design. Placing problems of impervious fills due to wet weather
and cold climatic conditions will be studied on a preliminary
basis. Shear behavior of impervious and shell materials will be
studied under dynamic and high-confining stresses.
0
{3) Seismic Effects
Damages to dams during earthquakes can occur as deformation of
the embankment collapses slopes, cracks cores and loosens the
soil masses. Conventional methods cannot be employed for any-
thing other than the collapse of slopes-. In order to study the
other two problems, it will be necessary to study the stresses
and deformations produced in embankments at the time of an
earthquake. The magnitude of deformations and stresses that
develop will depend on the time of occurrence of inertia forces
induced by the sudden ground displacements during an earthquake.
A logical method of design requires:
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(5)
- a determination of the variation of inertia forces with time
-an assessment of the embankment deformations and stresses
induced by these forces.
Simplified numerical techniques which are comparable to dynamic
finite element analysis, such as the Characteristtc Method in
combination with other simplified methods, will be used for the
seismic analysis.
.
The ground motion characteristics, the cyclic stress-strain data
and the dynamic material properties obtained from Task 4 studies
will be. utilized in the seismic design of earth/rockfill dams and
embankments. The following measures will be included in the
design to preclude the possibility of failure or major damage
during an earthquake:
-avoidance of major faults in the foundation
-provision of ~ufficient vertical and horizontal drainage
-provision of ample freeboard
-use of wide transition zones of filter materials which are not
vulnerable to cracking
-use of wide cores of materials with self-healing and erosion
resistant properties
appropriate provisions for handling wave effects due to earth-
quakes or landslides into the reservoir
provision of appropriate crest details to minimize erosion
-appropriate measures to prevent slope failures or sliding. of
the dam on its foundations
-construction of \vell-compacted cofferdams to buttress main
section
Permafrost Studies
Permafrost studies will include application of the state-of-the-
art in permafrost to the dam design, assessing the data from the
field investigations and determining permafrost conditions on
foundation and abutments and on the proposed foundation treatment
such as grouting.
Dam Sections
The design of dam fill sections will involve study of layouts,
zoning arrangements for earth/rock-fill dams~ optimization of dam
slopes 1 requirements for filters, drains and slope protection
riprap. Detail stability analyses, static and dynamic will. be
done for various loading conditions such as end of construction,
long~term steady seepage and rapid drawdown~ Dynamic loading
conditions will be studied as mentioned in Section 3 under seis-
mic effects. The design will include settlement and seepage
analyses in the fill and foundations and determination of the
type and scope of instrumentation to measure the performance of
the structure.
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(6) Construction Sequence and Method
The study will evaluate the effects of construction sequence and
methods such as staged construction on cost and schedules. Also,
it will determine effects on materia 1 s availability, method of
placement and design of dam zoning and cofferdams and other river
closure procedures. Construction period will be largely
influenced by climatic conditions in the project region. This
\'lill particu1 arly affect the placing of impervious fills and
overall construction time of the structure. The study will
include assessing the number of wet days during a constr~uction
season and the number of days of freezing in a year that will
prohibit placing.
·(d) Schedule
Weeks 85 through 110
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Subtask 6.12 ~ Preliminary Design of Devil Canyon Dam
(a) Objectiv~
To prepare the preliminary design and associated cost estimate and
construction schedule for the Devil Canyon dam.
(b) Approach
This subtask will be initiated once the preliminary study of alterna-
tive danrsections, undertaken in St.tbtask 6.08, has been completed and
approved. The primary input to this subtask, once the type of dam has
been established, will be the results of the field investigations
(Task 5) and the seismic studies {Task 4). Cost estimating data will
be provided through Task 9. Specific activities to be undertaken will
include:
-Assembly and review of most recent field and seismic study data;
Preparation of a preliminary layout of the dam dimensioned to meet
the basic requirements of the project design criteria; :
-Development of appropriate preliminary design details, including
grouting and pressure relief provisions, foundation and abutment
preparation as required by the basic dam design within the context
of the geotechnical conditions;
-Preparation of preliminat'Y stability analyses for the critical
conditions set out in the preliminary design· criteria document
(Subtask 6.10). Foundation design parameters are to be provided on
the basis of results obtained from the laboratory tests carried out
in Task 5. Specific conditions will, of course, depend upon the
type of dam selected, but for a concrete gravity dam wou1d typically
include:
.
conventional stability and sliding analyses and stress distribu-
tion on foundation
determination of response of the concrete dam to seismic forces
examination of stress and deformations by finite element
analysis
-For the embankment section stability ana lyses as discussed in
Subtask 6.11 will be performed.
-Review and adjustment of design to accomnodate anomalies indic9ted
in the course of. the stability studies undertaken above
-Reservoir studies, including:
reservoir slope stability assessment in relati,on to thawing
permafrost and generation of high pore pressures
reservoir slope stability during seismic events~ including impact
on liquefaction-sensitive soils and mass instabilities
snow slide assessment
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-.computation of quanti: ties and development of ~~$timate. of cost for
the dam and associated cofferdams and diversion tunnels
-Development of dam construction schedule
Preparation of material for input to dam selection report
(c) Discussion
In the development of the dam design, the following key aspects will
be taken into account:
(1) Foundation and Abutment Conditions
Study of foundation and abutment conditions will include assess-
ment of the available information on overburden~ bedrock~
structural geology including identification of local shear'zones,
faults and joint sets, and consolidation and strength character-
i sties. Based on the parameters from the assessment, the design
wi 11 determine foundation seepage, permanent pressure re 1 i ef ~
foundation treatment, consolidation and curtain grouting require-
ments, abutment stability, shaping of abutments, overburden and
rock excavation requirements and excavation dewatering. Special
consideration will be given with regard to excavation of loose
~riverbed alluvium, and talus materials near abutments.
{2) Construction Materials
Study in detail the avail abi1 ity and suitabi1 ity of construction
material$ and their methods of exploitation for earth/rockfill
and concrete dams and other associated concrete structures ..
Various sources of impervious material as well .as rock quarry for
roc kfi 11 materia 1 s and concrete aggregates wi 11 be investigated
in the field. Evaluation of the field data and laboratory test
results will be done to determine the suitability of the con-
struction materi a1 s and their parameters to be used in the
design. Placing problems of impervious fills due to wet weather
and cold climatic conditions will be studied on a. preliminary
basis. Shear behavior of impervious and shell materials will be
studied under dynamic and high-confining stresses ..
(3) Seismic Effects
For the concrete dam, the seismic impact and response will be
evaluated by dynamic, finite element techniques corrmonly adapted
for such· ana lyses. · Stress concentration and deformation in ·the
body of the dam or at the foundation will be evaluated. Damages·
to dams during earthquakes can occur as deformation caused by
shear failure in the concrete section of the dam.
The seismic effect on the embankment section is discussed in
Subtask 6.11 and is not repeated here.
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(4) Permafrost Studies
Permafrost.· studies will involve application of the state of the
art in permafrost to the dam design. Data from the field inves-
tigations will be assessed to determine permafrost conditions in
foundation and abutments, 'and to establish the proposed founda-
tion treatment such as thawing~ grouting, etc.
(5) Dam Sections
The design of concrete dam sections will involve study of lay-
outs, jointing pattern and other concrete details,and for the
fill. dam, zoning at .. rangements, optimization of dam slopes,
requirements for filters, drains and slope protection riprap.
Detailed stability analyses, static and dynamic will be done for
various loading conditions such as end of construction, long-tenn
steady seepage and rapid drawdown. Dynamic loading conditions
will be studied as mentioned in Task 4 under seismic effects.
The design will include settlement and seepage analyses in the
fill and foundations and will detennine the type and scope of
instrumentation to measure the performance of the structure.
{6) Construction Sequence and Method
The study wi 11 eva.l uate the effects of construction sequence and 0
methods such as · ·sta.ged construction on cost and schedules. Also,.
it will determine its effects on materials availability~ method
of placement and design of dam zoning and cofferdams and other
river closure procedures., The construction period will be
1 argely influenced by varying climatic conditions in the project
region. Acres is particularly experienced in cold weather
construction techniques for large dams. These conditions wi11
most certainly affect the placing of impervious fills and
concrete and the overall construction time of the structure. The
study will include assessing the number of wet days during a
construction season and the number of nays of freezing in a year
that will prohibit placing.
{d) Schedule
Weeks 85 through 110
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• Subtask 6.13 -Dam ~election Repor~
(a)
(b)
Objective
Prepare a report summarizing the results of the study dealing with the
selection and·preliminary design of dams and reservoirs for the
Susitna. Development.
Approach
.
.The primary input to this report will be derived from the preliminary
design development studies undertaken under Subtasks 6.11 and 6.12.
The report wiil address the follo'11ing principal topics for each of the · dams considered:
-princ..ipal hydraulic, geotechnical and structural design criteria
-selection of type of dam
-geology and foundation conditions
-staged construction conside'f'ations
-basic design concept
-stability analyses
-diversion and construction conditions
-construction materials
-reservoir conditions
e -construction schedul~
-estimate of cost
The report will be submitted in draft form to the Engineering Panel
and to APA for review prior to finalization.
(c) Discussion
This report_, which \1i11 contain major technical input to the license
application_, will provide a focus not only for the work undertaken in
a number of the previous subtasks in Task 6 but also for data develop-
ed in other primary tasks such as Tasks 4 ~ Seismic Studies and Task 5
-Geotechnical Exploration.
{d) Schedule
Weeks 100 through 115
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Subtask ~_.14 :. SJ?fllw~y Design Criteria
{a) Q!!jective·
. To establish the basic spillway and diversion design criteria for the
Watana and De.vil Canyon dam sites ..
(b) [\pproach
·Basic design criteria will be established and reviewed with APA and
other State and Federal Agencies. These basic criteria define the
accepted degree of risk to flood damage and include:
~ Landslides. Landslide events due to seismicity or other causes are
mare difficult to deal with quantitatively. It is also often
uneconomic to allow sufficient freeboard to prevent overtopping due
to a reservoir slide. On the Mica dam project in British Columbia
this was the case, and the reservoir crest was specifically designed
to withstand a limited amount of overtopping. We will undertake a
brief study to determine the freeboard requirement for such slide
events and assess the economic impact of providing adequate
freeboard versus protecting the dam crest. Input to this study would
be derived for the study outlined in Task 3. Based on the results
of this study the required freeboard and crest protection will be
recommended.
-_Spillway design flood. A des.ign flood hydrograph of a high proba-
bility of succeedence such as the 10,000 years flood. The service
. spillway would be sized to accommodate the flood without the
reservoir water level encroaching on the required dry freeboard.·
- A catastrophic flood event. Normally specified as the probable
maximum flood. The service spillway and, if required, emergency
spillways would be designed to pass this flood but reservoir levels
would be allowed to rise to dam crest level. ·
-Spillway cavitation criteria.· A specification of the magnitude of
design flood hydrograph above which limited cavitation/erosion
damage wi 11 be accepted. .
-Do\-tnstream erosion criteria. A specification of the magnitude of
design flood above which erosion damage requiring subsequent
remedial work will occur downstream.
-Freeboard criteria. A specification of the severity of the climatic
and reservoir landslide event for which adequate dry freeboard is
required. Climatic events which affect freeboard are high winds and
it is usual to specify a design wind velocity having a return period
of say 100 years.
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-Diversion flood criteria-;""·_c·Brief economic studies will be undertaken
to determjne the economic level of flood protection during the
diversion stages .. Hydrologic and hydraulic input would be derived
from the Tttsk '3 studies and would include open water flood condi-
tions as well as flood levels under ice cover and ice jam condi-tionsQ
-Low level outlet criteria. A study will be undertaken to determine,
the requirement for a low' level outlet and" if necessary, the
capacity for such an outlet. Aspects to be considered include:
do\'.mstream water quantity and quality requtrements
control of reservoir filling rate
r.equi rement for emergency drawdown.
Once these basic criteria are finalized the information will be
issued as a design transmittal.
(c) Discussion
The design criteria described above are those usually adapted by Acres
for the design of large dams and we recommend them for the Susitna Project. -
(d) Schedule
Weeks 70 through 80
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Subtask 6.15.-Watana Spillway Alternatives
{a} Objective
Examine alt-ernative potential spillway arrangements for the Watana
site, and select the most appropriate for subsequent design develop-
ment..;
(b) Agproach
Primary input for this study will be obtained from:
-Task 3 -Hydrology
-Task 5 -Geotechnical Exploration
-Subtask 6al4 -Spillway Design Criteria
Specific activities will include:
-Assembly and assessment of input data
-Preliminary layout of alternative spillway arrangements to meet the
requirements set out in the· design criteria document within the
constraints imposed by the dam and other. faci 1 iti es
-Take-off of quantities and computation of costs of alternative
a rrangem·ents
Examination of operational aspects of the spillway alternatives and
identification of possibl·~ measures required to mitigate adverse
effects
-Selection of most appropriate spill~1ay arrangement on the basis of
net cost and operational characteristics
{c) Discussion
Since the energy head to be dissipated in the spillway \'/Orks at Watana
could be as much as 700 feet, and the safety of the entire development
will depend upon the proper operation of the spillway, the selection
and design of this facility will be one of the most critical aspects
of the design development program. The selection of the optimum
spillway arrangement will depend to a large extent on the ambient _
economics of the dam and spillway combination, not only in relation to
the physical layout, but also in relation to the potential provision
of rockfill for the dam construction from the excavations for the
sp-illway chute .. ~
In the current Corps of Engineers' designs, the spillway chute dis-
charges· at right angles to the alignment of Tsusena Creek~ which may
be less than attractive from the hydraulic standpoint;. however,·
realignment may prove to be difficult to achieve without involving
major excavations. Present indications are that the geology of the
left {south) bank is marginally "better .. than that of the right bank~
and it may be possible to locate an improved orientation on this bank.
However, any scheme which involves a shorter and steeper chute wi 'i 1
almost certainly require concrete linings to prevent erosion under
high velocity flows: This of course., will involve major additional
costs and raises the spectre of cavitation and erosion damages
experienced at so many other h-igh-head spillway installations •
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The spill\'Jay crest control structures will be of conventional concept,
designed to accommodate appropriate ice loads/bubbler systems. One or
more gates may require heating if spillway operation during freezing
weather is required. If alternatives involving steep chutes are
considered) then it will be necessary to examine various forms of
energy-dissipating structures, such as chute blocks, stilling basins,
and the 1 ike.
{d) Schedule
Weeks 80 through 95
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~btask 6.16 -Oevi 1 Cany()n Spillway Alternatives
(a) Objective
To examine alternative potenti a1 spillway arrangements for .the Devil
Canyon site, and select the most appropriat~ for subsequent design
development.
{b) Approach
..
Primary input for this study will be obtained from:
-Task 3 -Hydt'o1ogy
-Task 5 -Geotechni ca 1 Expl oration
-Subtask 6.14 ... Spillway Design Criteria
Specific activities will include:
-Assembly and assessment of input data
-Preliminary layout of alternative spillway arrangements to meet the
requirements set out in the design criteria document within the
constraints imposed by the dam and other facilities
-Take-off of quantities and computation of costs of alternative
arrangements
-Examination of operational aspects of the spillway alternatives and
identification of possible measures required to mitigate adverse
effects
-Se 1 ect ion of most appropriate spillway arrangement on the basis of
net cost and operational characteristics
(c) Discussion
The most recent (1979) Corps of Engineers design for the spillway at
Devil Canyon calls for a conventional arrangement discharging over the
central section of the concrete gravity dam. For the originally
proposed arch dam at this site, the Corps has proposed a ski-jump
spillway arrangement discharging at the 1 eft abutment of the dam with
the lip of the jump some 300 feet above downstream river level.
The ultimately selected arrangement of spillway will, of course, be
heavily influenced by the type and arrangement of darn selected, and
may in turn affect the selection of the dam. Various aspects
influencing the selection of a chute-type spillway arrangement are
discussed under Subtask 6.15 above. Design considerations affecting
conventional spillway structures are well documented in the litera:-
ture.
(d) Schedule
~eeks 85 thro~gh 95
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Subtask 6 .. 17 -Preliminary Design of Watana Spillway
(a) Objective
To design the spillway facilities and associated features for the
Watana project ..
(b) Approach
From the studies in Subtasks 6.14 and 6.15~ the information on spill-
way design crfteria and most sui,table locations will be available to
develop this subtask. We will critically review foundation conditions
of the site and examine previously generated data for the project.
Design tasks will include:
Foundation design of the spillway~ ogee section, piers, spillway
channel and the chute structure including rock excavation, rock
reinforcement, concrete dental work and pressure relief facilities.
-Hydraulic design to determine optimum gate dimensions and gate
operating procedures. Development of a spillway operating rule
curve. based on headwater elevations in the reservoir and gate
opening, detai 1 ed tai lwater curve data and hydraulic profiles to
satisfy all operating conditions expected at the project. DeteTmin-
at ion of the shape. and height of piers, wa 11 s and chute block.
-Structural details and design of bridge, piers~ gates, stoplogs,
spillway channel \'lalls and slab chute structures considering normal
maximum head~1ater conditions, and seismic and extreme weather
conditions.
Design of gate facilities to operate under extreme weather and ice
conditionso Both bubble formations and heating of necessary
elements will be considered for the purpose of adequate cost pro-
vision in the estimate.
-Preliminary hydraulic and structural analyses of size, shape, and
thrust requirements of the chute block; shape and trajectory of the
jet under various flow and tailwater conditions will be reviewed to
develop satisfactory solutions. Preliminary study of jet impact
will be made and data will be developed for hydraulic modelling of
the facilities. ·
-Appropriate arrangement and design of electrical/mechanical
facilities for hoist operation under all conditions including .
emergency cond'itions will be developed.
-Safety of the spillway structure as an independent unit and as an
integral part of the overall project will be checked.
-If the dam is an embankment structure adjacent to the spillway, the
retaining walls will be designed and hydraulic approach conditions
will be reviewed.
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{c) Discussion·
The review of flood routing studies for project design flood, probable
maximum flood and other floods generated from Task 3 will provide data
on the rul'e curve for operations of the spillway facility. Gate
operation procedures w.ill be developed to suit all flood conditions
expected at the sit . .e. Flood rule curve data will provide relation-
ships of gate opening and headwater elevation in the reservoir without
topping the structure. Hydraulic profiles of the spillway channel
wi 11 be determined from the gate, and· stze .and type of chute wi 11 be
desisrieti to perform satisfactorily in all conditions with minimum
environmental impact and consideration for safety of the dam and
reservoir.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 90 through 115
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Subtask 6.18-PreliminarlDesign Devi1 Canyon Spillway
(a) Objective
(b)
To design spillway facilities and associated' features for the Devil
Canyon Project •
Approach
· This subtask involves critical review of the recommended arrangement
of the spillway and design having regard to foundation conditions,
location of the spillway and design project features compatible to
these conditions. Design will include:
-Foundation design of the spillway, ogee section, channel and the
chute structures wi 11 include·· rock excavation, rock reinforcement,
concrete dental work and pressure relief facilities.
-~qydraulic design will define gate operating procedures and spillway
oper·ating curve based on the relationship of headwater surface
elevation and gate opening. ,Preliminary hydraulic profile for
variable flow.will define the height and size of the piers, walks
and geometery and configuration of agee section and the chute
block.
-In case a concrete gravity dam is selected at Devil Canyon, several
kinds of energy dissipation structures will be evaluated including
ski-jump, sti 11 ing-bas in and chute-types and preliminary design will
be made of the most sui tab 1 e faci 1 ity recommended for the proje,ct ..
Should an arch dam be recommended for the Devil Canyon project site
a plunge pool-type.facility woulp be the most suitable arrangement.
-Structural details and design will be drawn up for bridges, piers.~
gates s stop 1 ogs, spi 11 way channel wa 11 s and slab chute structures,
considering seismic and extreme weather conditions imposed on the
site.
-Design will include provision in the facilities for gate operation
under ice conditions and extreme low temperatures and provision will
be made for heating certain facilities for satisfactory performance
of gates, hoists and guides.
-Hydraulic analyses will determine configuration of the chute and its
hydraulic performance including impact trajectory of the jet for
various flows, and pressure determination near the chute. Data will
be .. deve 1 oped for a hydrau 1 ic me de 1 testing program.
-Design will consider electrical and mechanical facilities for power
hoist ope.ration of gates under all weather conditions.
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-The geometry and the trajectory of the jet and its impact on landing
soil will be evaluated. Hydraulic model data \'/ill be developed for
testing in the later phases of the detailed design of the project.
(c) Discussion
Energy dissipation of about a 6QQ,..foot head at the Devil Canyon site
makes the design of the spillway structure critical. Dispersion of
waves from the flood-regulated releases of the upstream Watana dam
will need careful evaluation of its impact on the valley walls •
Extreme 1-.reather conditions at the project site will require special
design consideration during the preliminc1ry stage. Preliminary
drawings from which quantities will be taken off will be prepared.
The design will be accompanied by the associated schedule and cost
esttmate including impact on associated structures. The design will
be compatible with the hydraulic requirements and will conform with
the technical, economic and safety standards.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 95 through 115
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Subtask 6.19 -~illway Selection Report
(a) Objective
To prepare a report presenting the results of studies of alternative
spi 11way design concepts ·for the Watana and Devil Canyon Sites and the
selection and development of preliminary designs in each case •
{b) Approach
The spillway selection report will be assembled to document the
results of Subtask 6.14 through 6.18 dealing with consideration of
alternatives and preparation of preliminary designs for the Watana and
Devil Canyon Spillways. Primary input to the report will be provided
by memoranda prepared during the course of those studies to summarize
the work undertaken, together with appropriate drawings~ cost esti-
mates and schedules.
Specific topil:~ to be addressed in the report will include:
-basis of des"i gn flood analysis
-selected design floods
... selected spillway capacity
-selection of spillway type
-selection of discharge facilities
-flood routing analysis
-alternative spillway locations
-preliminary hydraulic design and rating curves
-optimization of crest widths/elevations
downstream erosion control
-preliminary structural designs
-preliminary stability analysis
-foundation treatment
... construction cost and schedule summaries
-flood control and operational safety
-icing considerations
(c) Discussion
The report also \'lill include a review of the interrelationship of the
two reservoir~ during floods and the advantages and disadvantages of
adopting remote control operation. The technical~ economic and
environmental issues involved in the selected designs will be dis-
cussed together with recommendations for further studies to be
undertaken prior to construction, including hydraulic modelling.
Discussions also will be p~esented on equipment contract packaging
alternatives.
The report will provide basic input to final design of spillway
structures, including structural and hydraulic analyses, geotechnical
conditions and hydraulic design of the spillways. The report will
also address other problems needing further investigation for the
detailed design such as geotechnical design, ice jamming conditions
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and constraints, seismic loading~ poss.ib1e requirements for heating
and other construction prob1 ems in extreme climatic conditions.
{d) Scfr~edul e
Weeks 110 through 120
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Subtask 6 .. 20 -Access and Camp Facilities
(a) Objective
To develop preliminary designs, arrangement drawings and cost
estimates for permanent camp and access road facilities for
construction and operation of the Devil Canyon 7 ~atana and related
project facilities~
(b) Approach
The results of access road route selection ·studies, surveys undertaken
in Task 2, and geotechnical exploration in Task 5 will provide basic
input to thi_s task. The initial camp facilities also developed under
Task 2 will provide the basis upon which the camp designs will be
developed.
Ongoing Task 6 design activities together with Task 9 construction and
resource scheduling input also will_ be used in the development of camp
design. "
Preliminary alignment profiles for roads and associated horizontal and
vertical curve design criteria will be developed. Road width, loading
criteria and data will be based on the heaviest and largest items of
power plant equipment to be shipped to the site. ·
Preliminary plans and profiles will define cut and fill slopes based
on geotechnical data and include designs for culverts and bridges.
Bridge and culvert alignments and designs will be based on preliminary
topographic!t geologic and hydrologic input at each location. Tunnels
may be used where appropr·i ate. A tot a 1 of 27 mi 1 es of access road
to the Devil Canyon site from the area of Highway No. 3 or railroad
.close to Gold Creek, are envisioned. An additional 37 miles of road
· will be required from the Devi 1 Canyon site to the t4atana site;)
Access roads will be required to the airstrip to each power plant and
other pov1er faci 1 iti es and to the dam and spillway for each site.
(c) Discussion
Permits required for construction of access roads and camp facilities
will be obtained by CIRI/H&N~ who \'~ill al;o provide support in the
devslopment of camp designs.
Access road and permanent camp facilities will probably be required at
each of the damsites. At least one permanent camp facility with.all-
weather road access to all permanent installations will be necessary
to support project operation and maintenance.
Permanent camp facilities will include permanent housing and recrea-
tion, medical and shopping facilities. This work will form the basis
of permitting and contract documents for access roads scheduled to be
constructed between 1982 and the end of 1987.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 70 thrdugh 80
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Subtask 6.21 -Watana Diversion Schemes
(a) Objective
To examine alternatives and select a river diversion plan to satisfy
the construction schedule requirements for· construction of the Watana
dam~ outlet works, spillway, power plant and reservoir, and prepare
conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates for the selected
scheme.
{b) Approach
The Watana diversion scheme will depend to a large extent on the type
and size of dam selected for the ultimate development and for any
intermediate stages of construction.
For a large earth or rockfill dam of the size currently proposed at
Watana, the diversion scheme wi 11 comprise some combination of up-
stream and downstream cofferdams and an appropriate arrangement of
tunnels, intakes and outlet structu·res to divert the flow.. Considera-
tion will be given to alternatives involving channel diversion schemes
in the riverbed area during a portion of the construction period. For
possible concrete dam alternatives considered under Subtask 6 .. 07!t
·somewhat different design concepts will be involved. These would most
likely include diversion of river flow directly through or over
partially completed dam structural elements.
Activities undertaken in this subtask will include the following:
-.Selection of diversion design flood and development of other design
criteria
-. Study of alternative cofferdam design concepts, heights and, place-
ment methods ·
-Study of alternative tu nne 1 a 1 i gnments , size$,. methods of co.nst ruc-
tion and lining requirements
-Revie~( of requirements for flow control and conceptual design of
intdke and outlet structures
-Considerat .. /on of icing problems upstream and downstream of the dam-
site area
-Review of foundation cut-off and treatment requirements
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-Consideration of requirements fer dewatering ~f dam foundations
-Evaluation of methods of tunnel closure for reservoir impoundment ·
-Co~ceptual ·designs, drawings and cost estimates for the selected
diversion scheme
Diversion flood routing analyses.
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(~} Discussion
' The selected scheme will provide safe arrangements for dam construc-
tion at minimum cost. Consideration will be given to utilization of
permanent project features such as po~1er and tai 1 race tunnels as
diversion facilities.
Input to this subtask will include the proposed dam construction
schedule, diversion flood flow criteria, geotechnical exploration data
and the type and location of the main dam and associated fe?JtUres .•
Diversion flood hydrographs and tailwater rating curves for these
studies will be based on Task 3 output. The flood hydrograph data
will be reviewc.1 and selected for consistency with the risks associ-
ated with construction of the Watana dam. Diversion studies will
determine the height of the upstre-am and downstream cofferdams witb
associated sizes of the diversion tunnel selected for the schemeG
These. studies will be used to determine an economical combination of
size of the diversion tunnel and the cofferdam height.
The severe weather conditions at this site and the imposed restric-
tions on the construction schedule ·associated with the relatively well
defined seasonal flow variations of the river wi·ll impose certain
limitations on development of the design of the diversion scheme.
The crest elevation of the upstream diversion dam proposed in the 1979
Corps of Engineers report is about 100 feet above the existing river
bed.. The embankment of this cofferdam therefore appears to be. founded
on about 50 feet of gravel and other pervious materials. Construction
of the embankment of the diversion dam itself is thus a major task and
would probably require its own smaller cofferdam. A slurry trench or
cut-off arrangement will probably be required to limit seepage.
Diversion dewatering problems under the core of the main dam will be
aggravated because of the required excavation and removal of more than
50 feet of riverbed material.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 85 to 95
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Subtask 6.22 -Devil Canyon Diversion Schemes
.
(a) Objective
To examins alternatives and se.lect a river diversion plan to satisfy
the construction schedule requirements for construction of the Devil
Canyon dam, outlet workss spillway, power plant and reservoir, and
prepare con(:eptual designs, drawings and cost estimates for the
selected scheme.
{b) Approach
The Devil Canyon'diversion scheme will depend to a large extent on the
type and size of dam selected for the ultimate development and for any
intermediate stages of construction. The scheme wi 11 be greatly -
influenced by the pattern of releases from the upstream Watana
development which will probably already be in place.
For a concrete dam of the size currently proposed at Devil Canyon, the
diversion scheme will probably comprise some combination of upstream
and downstt .. eam cofferdams and an appropriate arrangement of tunnels,
intakes and outlet structures to divert the flow. Consideration will
be given to alternatives involving diversion of ~iver flow directly
through or over partially completed dam structural elements during at
least a portion of the construction period. For possible rockfill dam
alt~rnatives considered under Subtask 6.08, somewhat different design
concepts will ·be involved.
Activities undertaken in this :;;;·:~task will include the fol'lowing:
-Selection of diversion desigd flood based on Watana releases and
development of other design criteria
-Study cf alternative cofferdam design concepts, heights and place-
ment methods
-Study of alternative tunnel alignments, sizes)-methods of construc-
tion and lining requirements
-Diversion flood routing studies
-Review of requirements for flow control and conceptual design of
intake and outlet structures
-Consideration of icing problems upstream -and downstream of the.cam-
s-;ite area
-Review of foundation cut-off and treatment requirements
-Consideration of requirements for dewatering of dam foundations
-Evaluation of methods of tunnel closure for reservoir impoundment
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-Conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates for the selected
diversion scheme ·
Consideration of concrete dam construction methods and risks
involved in diversion of river flow through partially completed
elements.
{c) Discussion
The selected scheme must provide safe arrangements for dam construc-
tion at minimum cast. Consideration will be gi'ven to utilization of
permanent project features such as t~nnels, power and tailrace as
diversion facilities.. ·
Construction planning and design of diversion facilities will take due
account of these factors.
During spring and early summer·s discharges from Watana spi 11way could
impose severe limitations and design constraints for the development
of the diversion plan for the Devil ·Canyon site.
Input to.this subtask will include the proposed dam construction
schedules appropriate flood-flow criteria, geotechnical exploration
data and the type and location of the main dam and associated
features. If~appropriate, diversion studies will determine the height
of the upstream and downstream cofferdams with associated sizes of the
diversion tu nne 1 se 1 ected fat· the ~scheme. These studies wi 11
determine a reasonably economical combination of size of the diversion
tunnel and the cofferdam height. Tailwater rating curves for these
studies will be based on Task 3 output. The flood hydrograph data
will be reviewed for its application and appropriately modified in
accordance with the risks associated with such a high dam.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 85 to 95
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Subt:ask 6 .. 23 -Optimize Watana Power Dev~_~opment
(a) Objective
To study alternative Watana power plant locations, types and sizes,
and associated intake, power conduit and outlet facilities withifl the
context of selected dam and spillway arrangements, and select the
optimum pciwer development conceptc
(b) Approacrr
The three major components of project cost at Watana are the dam, the
spillway and the power development facilities. To this point in Task
6 studies, work will concentrate on establishing the requirements for
feasible optimum dam and spillway design concepts. These studies
generally will be developed on the basis of engineering judgment and
experience an~ previous report data. This will not detract from the
overall objective of this POS in that the further improvements and
economies W~'lich rnay be made in the design of the power facilities are
not likely to affect the overall technical and economic feasibility of
the project significantly.
The 1ocat·ion~ type and siz.e of the power plant associated with the
selected dam and spillway structures wili be considered in more
detail. The installed capacity and annual generation data developed
under Subtask 6.03 will be re-examined in the light of updated total
project cost and any additional hydrological data which may have been
developed. Additional available geotechnical data will be considered
in designating alternative power plant locations and re-evaluation of
power development costs.
Subjects of study will include the following:
-Confirmation of tailwater rating curves and hydraulic head computa-
tions
-Determination of optimum plant capacity and enet"gy outputs as part
of the Railbelt Region power sys;em
-Surface and underground, 1 eft or right abutment, powerhouse
locations
.
-Number9 size and lining requirements for penstocks, tailrace tunnels
and surge tank
Number, type, size and setting of units
-Location and number of transformers
-Switchyard and cabling requirements
Selection of the optimum power development will be made on the basis
of ter!hnical feasibility and safety at minimum cost.
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(c) Discussion
The optimum scheduling of hydroelectric install ions developed under
Task 1 will be reviewed as input to this Subtask.
For the head and size of unit co_ntemplated at Watana, vertical Francis
units directly connected to synchronous g~:merators are the ·most likely
installation. Depending on the desired staging of development, modern
trends generally suggest that fewer~ 1 arger units are most 1 ikely to
provide maximun. opportunities for economy of scale. Discussions \'lill
be held with manufacturers in detennining the probable optimum size of
unit.. No problems are anticipated in selecting units at the size and
head envisaged.. A sumnary of recent large Francis unit designs is·
presented in Table A5 .. 5.
The 1979 Corps of Engineers design for Watana indicates an underground
power plant location. The scheduling advantages of such an installa-
tion are considerab 1 e in that year-round construction is fac i 1 i tated.
-Nevertheless~ surface alternatives may offer some advantages ~articu
larly in some of the possible limitations imposed by spillway location
priorities.
(d) Schedule
Weeks ~0 through 110
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Subtask 6.24 -Optimize Devil Canyon Power Development
('a) Objective
(b)
To study ~lternative Devil Canyon power plant locations, types and
sizes, and associated intake, power conduit and outlet facilities,
within the context of selected dam and spillway arrangements, and
select the optimum power development concept ..
Approach
As in the case of the Watana site (Subtask 6.23), Task 6 studies will
initiaJly concentrate on estab1ishing the requirements for feasible
opt·imurn dam and spillway design concepts at Devil Canyon.
The location, type and si'ze <lf the power plant associated with the
selected dam and spillway stJ"uctures will be considered in more
deta i 1. However, space restt"i ct ions in the narrow De vi 1 Canyon wi 11
impose constraints on available powerhouse locations. Th~a installed
capacity and annual generation datai:leveloped under Subtask 6.03 will
be re-examined in the light of updated total project cost and any
additional hydrological data which may be developed .. · Additional
available geotechnical data will be considered in alternative power
plant locations and re-evaluation of power development costs.
Subjects of study will include the following:
-Impact of time release patterns from Watana
-Confirmation of tailwater rating curves and hydraulic head ~
computations
-Determination of optimum plant capacity and energy outputs as part
the Railbelt Region power ~yste~
... Surface and underground~ left or right abutment~ or integral dam
powerhouse locations
-Number, size and lining requirements for penstocks, tailrace tunnels
and surge tank (if required)
Number, type, size and setting of units
-Location and number of transformers
-Switchyard and cabling requirements
Selection of the optimum power development will be made on the basis
of technical feasibility and safety at minimum cost.
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(c) Discussion
The optimum Devil Canya~ power deve1 opment will be significantly
influenced .by Watana plant operations.
As at Watana~ for the head and size of unit contemplated at Devil
Canyon, vertir.al Francis units directly connected to synchronous
generations are the most likely installation. Discussions will again
be held with manufacturers in detennini ng the probable optimum size of urnt.
The 1979 Corps of Engineers design for Devil Canyon also indicates an
underground power plant location. The scheduling advantages of such
an installation are considerable in that year-round construction is facilitated~~ Nevertheless, surface alternatives may offer some cost
advantages, particularly. if a power plant constructed integrally with
the dam proves to be feasi b 1 e .•
(d) Schedule
Weeks 90 through 110
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Subtask_,6 .25 -Optimize Dam Heights
(a) Objective
To consider alternative heights of ·selected Devil Canyon and Watana
dam structures and associated development· design concepts and select
the optimum.
{b) Approach
(c)
(d)
At this point in the study the opportunity will be taken to reassess
the costs and benefits of each development to confirm or modify the
design concepts previously adopted.. The Subtask will essentially be
undertaken on the basis of the results of previous Task 6 studies of
the dams, spillways and power developments.. The following activities
will be included:
-development of preliminary conceptual designs for alternative dam
heights with associated spillway and power development .
modifications
-re-evaluation of development construction costs, power and energy
outputs and system economics incorporating the modified development
-selection of the optimum development concept (I
.
-if necessary, modifications to conceptual designs and cost estimates
of dams and spillways
Discussion
This will essentially be the final step in the determination of pro-
ject feasibility and in selection of the optimum development at each
site in terms of maximum net benefits. In selecting the optimum
deve 1 opment, due cons ide ration wi 11 be given to rf!l evant en vi ronmenta 1
issues.
Schedule .
Weeks 105 to 115
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Subtask 6.26 -Preliminary Design Watana Power Development
(a)
(b)
Objective
.. To develop
for Watana pre 1 imina l'"Y conceptua 1 designs, drawings and cost estimates
power plant, intake, power conduits and outlet works.
A~Qroach
Preliminary designs, drawings and cost estimates will be prepared for
the selected optimum power development facilities at Watana including:
-General arrangement
-Po.werhouse arrangement
-Valve chambers
-Powerijouse crane
-Access and control room facilities
-Transformer area
Draft tubes and gates
-Bus ducts and cable shafts
-Intakes and gates
-Pensiocks and surge tank (if required)
-Tailrace and outlet structure
-Switchyard and transmission arrangements
The work will also include the following activities:
-Establish the turbine head and capacity rating and mechanical equipment required
-Establish the generator· rating and other electrica1 equipment ·requirements
-DetermirJe arrangement of mechanical and electrical equipment in the
powerhouse layout for the most efficient use of space
-Prepare electrical single-line diagram
-Make preliminary ana lyses of transient pressures in the power conduit
-Design preliminary penstock steel/concrete lining
(c) Discussion
Studies will be made of the geotechnical aspects of the underground
structures such as the powerhouse, tunnels and penstocks, with
appropriate input from exp 1 oratory \'/ork. The assessment of geoteohni-
cal probleFTJs and the design analysis will be sufficient in depth to
establish technical feasibili.ty and to determine realistic capital
cost and schedule requirements. The objective of these studies will
be to locate a structurally sound block of rock within which the major
openings may be sited with confidence.
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As an extension of the field program, the assessment will include rock
quality studies identifying and evaluating significant geological
features such as faults, foliation, shear ~ones, principal joint
systems, groundwater and seepage regimes. During this process, ba!?ic
design parameters such as shea.r strength and rock modulus will be ·
evaluated. Based on assessment and evaluation of the studies, the
basic design_ criteria for rock excavation, rock reinforcement, rock
support lining requirements and pressure relief systems for major
openings to ensure rock mass stability will be confirmed.
The size of major openings such as the underground powerhouse will be
largely dictated by mechanical and electrical equipment, hydraulic
requirements, and orientation and shape of the openings. The design
optimizat·ion of the geometry will depend on the st-rength characteris-
tics of the mass rock relative to the·stresses thr.t may be imposed.
Finite element stress analysis may be necessary rluring later project
design phases after submission of the license a~plication tc check the stability of the openings •.
Ice janmtng conditions and other severe weather construction and post-
construction conditions will be examined to provide a facility which
is fully integrated with the hydraulic system of the conduits and
power plant~ and can serve under all weather conditions.
Preliminary concepts will be developed for structural details, along
with concrete pour and jointing details and consideration of
construction methods. To cope with water quality and environmental
problems due to reservoir stratification, the intake structure should
be capable of drawing water from several different levels. The
conceptual design of an intake structure with various levels of
withdrawal, power inlet transitions, emergency gates, and trashrack
details will be undertaken. Information obtained from manufacturers
for specific mechanical and electrical equipment items with associated c~sts and characteristics will be used in the conceptual layout
drawings and also for the cost estimate9
Preliminary conceptual designs of gates, bridges, energy-dissipating
structures, tunnels and all other hydraulic structures will be made to provide reliable cost data.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 95 to 115
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Subtask 6 .. 27 -Preliminary Design Devil Canyon Power Development
(a) Objective
To develop preliminary conceptual designs, drawings and cost estimates
for Devil Canyon power plant, intake, power conduits and outlet works.
(b) Appl"Oach
As for the Watana Power Deve1 opment, work under this Subtask wi 11
include preliminary designs, drawings and cost estimates for the
selected optimum power development facilities at Devil Canyon" These will include:
-Gener.a 1 arrangement
-Powerhouse arrangement
-Valve chambers ·
Powerhouse crane
-Access and control room facilities
-Powerhouse crane
-Tr.ansformer area
.-Draft tubes and gates
-Bus ducts and cable shafts
-Intakes and gates
-Penstocks and surge tank (if required)
-Tailrace and outlet structure
-Switchyard and transmission arrangements
The work wi 1 T a 1 so inc 1 ude the fo 11 owing activities :
-Establish the turbine head and capacity rating and mechanical equipment required
-Establish the generator rating and other electrical equipment requirements
Determine arrangement of mechanical and electrical equipment in the
powerhouse layout for the most effi\.ient use of space
-Prepare electrical single-line diagram
Provide preliminary analysis of transient pressures in the powet' -conduit
·· Design preliminary penstock steel/concrete lining
{c) Discussion .
As:. for Watana, the geotechnical aspects of the design of underground
structures such as the powerhouse, tunnels and penstocks will be
carefully assessed ~lith due consideration of the results of explora-
tory work. The assessment of geotechnical problems and the design
analysii wfll be sufficient in depth to establish technical feasibil-
ity and to determine realistic capital cost and schedule requirements.
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. {d)
The assessment will include identificq_tion of design parameters such
as shear strength and rock modulus and evaluation of significant
geologic features such as faults, foliation, shear zones, princi.pal
joint systems, groundwater and seepage regimes. The basic des'ign
criteria for rock excavation, rock reinforcement, rock support lining
requirements and_pressure relief .systems for major openings to ensure
rock mass stability will be confirmed.
The size of major openings such as the underground powerhouse will be
largely dictated by mechanical and electrical equipment, hydraulic
requirements, and orientation ~nd shape of the openings. Finite
element stress analysis w.ay he necessary during later· project design
phases after submission of the license application to check the
stability of the openings.
Evaluati.on of the impact of conjunctive operation of Devil Canyona and
Watana will be undertaken, including the effects of ice jamming and
other severe weather construction and post-construction conditions.
To cope ,with water quality and environmental problems due to reservoir
stratification~ the intake structure should be capable of drawing
water from several different levels. The conceptual design of an
intake structure with various levels of withdrawals po\ver inlet trans-
itions~ emergency gates, and trashrack details will be undertaken.
Information obtained from manufacturers for specific mechanical and
electrical equipment items with associated costs and characteristics
will be used in the conceptual layout drawings and also for the cost
estimate.
Preliminary conceptual designs of gates, bridges, energy dissipating
structures, tunnels and all other hydraulic stt"uctures will be made to
provide reliable cost data •
Schedule
Weeks 95 to 115
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Subtask 6.28 -Power Development Report
{a) Objective
To prepare a report presenting the results of studies of optimization
of power development alternatives for the Watana and Devil Canyon
Sites and the selection and development of preliminary conceptual
designs in each case.
{b) Appr·oach
The power development report will be assembled to document the results
of Subtasks 6.06 and 6.23 through 6.27. The report will deal with
consjderation of alternatives and preparation of preliminary designs
for the Watana and Devil Canyon power developments, including intakes,
penstocks, surge tanks, power plants, tailrace, switchyard and trans-
mission facilities for each site. Primary input to the report will be
provided by memoranda prepared during the course of those studies to
summarize the work undertaken, together with appropriate drawings,
cost estimates and schedules.
Specific topics to be addressed in the report will include the
following:
staged pcnter deve 1 opment cons ide rations
-selection of generating capacity of installations
-geotechnical design considerations
-hydraulic design parameter-s ·
-conceptual design of power developments
-single-line diagrams
-cost estimates and schedules
mechanical equipment selection ·
-electrical equipment selection
-accessory electrical equipment
-miscellaneous power P1ant equipment
(c) Discussion
The technical and economic issues involved in the selected designs
will be discussed together with recommendations for further studies to
be undertaken prior to construction. At least one of the power plants
will incorporate an underground cavern installation.. The selection of
location and geologic considerations for the underground facilities
will be fully discussed. Recommendations will be presented for
equipment and construction contract packaging alternatives to be
considered.
The report will provide basic input to final design of power develop-
ment strut::tures, including structural and hydraulic analyses, geotech-
nical conditions and hydraulic design of the intake, penstock and
tailrace facilities. The report will address other problems needing
further investigation for the detailed design such as geotechnical
design, ice jamming conditions and constraints, seismic loading,
possible requirements for heating and other construction problems in
extreme climatic conditions.
(d) Schedule
Weeks 110 through 120
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Subtask 6.29 -Watana General Arrangement
(a) Objective
To prepare general arr--angement drawings for the Watana development for
inclusion in the F~RC license application~
(b) Approach
(c)
In this subtask the complete general arrangement of the Watana dam
project will be developed. These arrangements will be based on pre-
liminary designs prepared under preceding Task 6 activities for the
major project components, including:
-reservoir area
-dam and access facilities
spillway cnntrol structure and access facilities
-spillway discharge facilities
-intake structure and access facilities
-power plant and access facilities
penstocks and surge tank {if required)
-tailrace arrangement
-switchyard and transmission facilities
-site access and camp facilities
...
The arrangement will be prepared in the form of reservoir and damsite
area layout drawings appropriate for inclusion in the FERC license
application.
Schedule
Weeks 110 to 120
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Subtask 6.30 -Devil Canyon General Arrangement
{a} Objective
To prepare general arrangement drawings for the Devil Canyon
development for inclusjon in the FERC license application.
(b) Approach
In' this subtask the complete general arrangement of the Devil Canyon
project wi 11 be developed. These arrangements \Ali 11 be based on
preliminary designs prepared under preceding Task 6 activities for the
major project components, including the following:
-reservoir area
-dam and access facilities
-sp~illway control structure and access facilities
-spillway discharge facilities
-intake str-ucture and access faci 1 iti es
-power pl(l:nt and access facilities
-penstock~ and surge tank (if required)
-tailrac~ arrangement
-switchJard and transmission facilities
-site access and camp facilities
The arrangement will be prepared in the form of reservoir and damsite
area layout drawings appropriate for inclusion in the FERC license application.
(c) Schedule
Weeks 110 to 120
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Subtask 6~31 -Project Feasibilitl: Report
(a)
(b.)
(c)
(d)
' Objective
To prepare report documenting the procedures followed in the evalua-
tion of feasibility of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project, including
the results of technical and econr!nic studies, conceptual designs~
preliminary environmental assessments and recommendations for the
future development of the project •.
Approach
This report will assemble the results and documentation from all
work undertaken in Task 6 .and pertinent aspects of a 11 other tasks.
Previous reports prepared under Task 6 will be condensed into a
single document, including The following:
Subtask 6.05 -Development Selection Report
Subtask 6.13 -Dam Selectjon Report
Subtask 6 .. 19 -Spillway Selection Report
Subtask 6.28 -Power Development Report
The feasibility report will form the basis of the FERC license
application and provide Alaska Power Authority with all technical
and economic information necessary to decide whether or not to
proceed, and how to proceed \'lith the project.
Specific topics to be dealt with in the report will include the
following, for each of the \~atana and Devil Canyon sites:
-Description of project
-Basic project data
-Design criteria
-ProJect staged development concepts
-Dam alternatives
-Consideration of Devil Canyon arch dam design
-River diversion schemes
-Spillway alternatives
-Power development alternatives
-Conceptual project des~gns and drawings
-Cost estimates and schedules
Transmission
-Construction contract packaging
Environmental considerations
-Power marketing studies
-Project feasibility assessments
-Recorrmendations for project development
Discussion
The feasibility report will be submitted for comment by the external
review panel and the Alaska Power Authority prior to completion and
issue to the pub.fic41 The report will form the basis of continued
development and financing of the Susitna Project to meet the future
power needs of the Railbelt Region •
Schedule
Weeks 115 through 125
TASKS <4 a 5 INPUT
..,.
TASKS 3
& 9 INPUT
TASK Z
INPUT
·_;::·-~,·
T4SK'2
INPUT
REVIEW EVALUATE -c WATANA/ DEvtL • WATANA WATANO\
PREVIOUS ALTERNATIVE
s:roi:utS f-.-~,/+-,-/+---to-l SUSITNA 1---...~""--!-...1 CANYON STAGED \: SPIU.WAV 1---~~ DIVERSION
./ OE:VEt.OPMENl !--........ ~,~ ALTERNATIVES ,! SCHEMES
f-,-6.-o"""'IJr-25-Jo.y-4-0-1 DEVEl.OPMENTS At.itRNA'Ttves '6.15 1 eo f 95 , ~21 1 asj ss
INVESTIGATE
TUNNEl.
ALTERNATtVES
602: I '30. I ~
s.o;~ 1 .;o 6o 4WGI Go T7s
OPTIMIZE.
PR!;t.IMINAAV WATANA
"'-"\ '--~ WATi\NA DAM ' "\ ...___ ___ .,.__~. l.---11"1 POWER
_.1 ( ...__...,~~-'~ AL.TEANATIVES 1----+-:1.__ ___ ....,+----T....,. _f---7. "'"--+i DEVELOPMENT 1-----,
L ___ ..:.-~)~)+----.-~-~s.';;o717Jr.ro;;,.f-:75;1. ~ " ( 623 f 90 luo
' ~J[~1~.: ,
DEVIL CANYON
ARCH DAM
EVALUATION
6.04145 65
TAS~ 2
INPUT
'---------llo-l PRELIMINAP"/
"\ OEVIL. CA~: iON
1----.J---------.-1 DAM
./ ALTERNATIVES
6..08jl.iO r 75
1
I ~:14 I 10 I 80
DEVIL CANVON
"\ "'-SPILLWAY '------,/i--,-~HIIo-l ALTERNATIVES
GJ6 I e5 I 95
ACCESS
'---flool a CAMP
FACILITIES
"' DEVIL CANYON J--_,~4-.--l~ DIVERSION
SCHEMES
6.22 I .aslS5
OPTIMIZE
DEVIL CANYON
POWER
+-DEVEUJPMENTf--~
G.C4· I 90 I JIO
{)PTIMIZE
DAM
HEIGHTS
s.zslm5 1 us
j
'
WATANA TASKS 2,4
8.5 INPUT
ESTABUSH
1---""+--~ WATANA
,/ DESIGN
CRiTF.RIA
· PREUM!NARY
"'\ L..-..,.. DESIGN
,/. WATANA DAM
6J 1 jas no
..._ ....._ "'\ ' \ · GENERAL ..... t~=-L~~~r-~---~==._=========t~~==~~----~--~'4-~~ARRANGEMENTJ-----------4-1 ----~~
;,;r-,., . .. ./ I7 I ,.,
s.o9l eo l9s az9 T uo 1120
PREl..1M!NARY:
..._ "\ DESIGN L_ _____________ ~)~-------------~~==~wA~NA
/ SPUWAY
L---\+.~ PREUMlNAR'i'
,/ DESIGN
1----. WATANA POWER'!----....,)._------!
DE:VELOP MENT
s.17 9sT us 6.26 I 95 Ius
INPUT TO
TASK 10
ESTABLISH PRELIMINARY DEVIL CAN'I'ON
DEVIL CANYON. .__..,._,.--t;..J DESIGN GENERAL
t_ ____ ~.__...._ ___ __,~ DESIGN 1--------t ... l DEVIL CANYON t--'~"1------------+-' "'\ "\ AflRANGEMENT ·t-------'
;/ CRITERIA '0' \1 1-./ ·...-----_;_,_~-J-----..:~-----+-------~--~-~::;:;:-,Ir.;;:;:-r::; l;.i.·
LEGEND
I _SUBTASK ....-t'"""""· TITLE
l J
COMPL.ETIO!'J. WEEK
'----START WEEK
~---SUSTA$1( ~0.
DEVELOPMENT
SELECTiON
...__,.. REPOf{T
6;05 tro 65
INPUT TO
TASI<S7,889
f-. . ,./ r' 6.30 110 1120 s•oJ 80 I 95 sJz tes !•10 ;
DAM
SELECTION
REPORT
6.13 100 Ins
r r
SPII..LWAy
SELECTION
REPORT
6.19 tuo t 120
PREUMINAfn
DESIGN DEVit.
CANYON POWERt-------------.....1
DEVELOFMENT
6.27 95 JllS
+
POWB:l
. QEVELOPM..."NT ..___.!Of. REPORT
6.281 HQ I®
INPt.rr TO
TASKS 1,S,~it
PROJECT
FEAS!BILITY ...
REPOR'r
63f lrt5 h25 ·
' ;----
-"1.
..
.-..-tt/!:SDtK:Itlf n.uooo'
UPSTREAM FACE Of DAM
I
I £1.. IUO.O'
I JNTAKE SECTION
0 100 200
e' 1
FEET
PLAN
PLAN
0
WILES:
PROFILE ALONG CENTERLINE OF POWER TUNNEL
0
1141LES
O•f6300 CFS
V "1~~7 FT/S
BEY .
•. ·i·"
. ....;-o . •
OR. r . tft.!' • .. ·. ·.
POWER TUNNEL SECfiON
;: ~ 75 Cf"S
V •27,72 FTI$
!
0 • 16300CFS
V •20 FTI.S
iNCLINED PENS TOO<
SECTION
STEEL LINED
PENSTOCK
SECTION
DRAFT TUBE
SECTION
0
1'EET
0• 8150CFS
'I• 25 f'T/S
HORIZONTAL F£NSTOCK
SECTION
•• ·~~.. ~.· · .. ~ ..... ··: ... .,<,. !!~ ill e =~ FT/s
-~ ... ~.-....... .
~
TAILRACE
SECTION
BUS SHAFT
POWERiiOUSE
POWERHOUSE COMPLEX SECTION
0 40 80
[ ' FEP
13 ... '.1' .. ··•.·· '/z ,,