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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA1676HC 107 .A42 T3 v.3 PHASE I RESOURCE INVENTORY August, 1983 MINERAL EI,EMF.NT STATE OF ALASKA Department of Natural Resources 4420 Airport Way Fairbanks, Alaska 99701 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Soil Conservation Service ---=--__. L ~R.~ ... RY '~~nn" UOR 1/C EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ;tJ7 ;-1!9'Z /'J ,;, 3 The ·Tanana Basin includes 21 million acres of land along the Tanana River stretching from the Canadian border on the east to the Yukon River on the northwest. As shown in Figure 1, it includes the most populated area of Alaska's Interior. The area which this plan addresses includes all state selected, tentatively approved and patented land within the Tanana Basin Boundary exclusive of those areas which have had area plans completed or which do not have state in-holdings. The analysis presented here indicates that there are areas of land in the Tanana Basin with high mineral potential. of these areas have been and continue to be very productive. large Many This report estimates the net benefits of minerals in the Basin to be on the order of 89.4 million per year currently. Current mineral activity also generates approximately $198 million annually in income effects and almost 1100 jobs in the Basin. Within the industry, gold generates both the largest producers benefit and the largest income effect, while exploration probably employs the most people. The principal change expected in the industry within the next 20 years is the addition of major base metal mining to the gold, sand and gravel and coal activities which have been the basis of the industry for the past several decades. Base metals could become the most important commodity in terms of economic impact, considerably increasing producers benefits, income and employment. Gold, sand and gravel and coal also have considerable potential for expansion. - 'J' u '.J Figure I. l l. ' " J • I .j '' TANANA BASIN AREA 8 SCALE IN MILES 0 12 24 The Tanana Basin Planning Area. SuJDJD.ary of Current EconoJDic Effects of Mining in the Tanana Basin Producers ' Mining Benefits Income Employment Activity by {Milllions (Millions (Person- Commodity $/year) $/year) Years) Precious Metals 4.4 64.0 140 Industrial and Structural Commodities 0.9 43.0 410 Coal 0.9 51.3 125 Exploration and ~ Development 39.4 390 Activities Total 6.2 197.7 1,065.0 l 9 I Su:nunary of Potential EeonoJDic Effects of !Wining in the Tanana Basin Mining Activity by Commodity Precious Metals Placer Hard rock Total Base Metals Industrial and Structural Materialsb Coal Medium Scenario Total Producers Benefits (Millions $/year) 6.4 1 6 s.o 12.0 0.9 Income (Millions $/year). 94. 19. 113. 700 43 142 998 Employment (Person- Years) 220 30 250 900 410 155 1465 aRounded to nearest 10 person-years. bcurrent effects are shown as a minimum estimate. GRounded to nearest $1 million. dRounded to nearest 100 person-years. CONTENTS Chapter 1 ·chapter2 Chapter3 Chapter4 ChapterS Chapter6 Appendices BihHopaphy Introduction ....................................... 1-1 Past, Current and Planned Mining Activity ............... 2-1 Mineral Potential of the Tanana Basin ................... 3-1 Supply of the Resource ............................... 4-1 Benefit-Cost Analysis ................................ 5-1 Management Recommendations ....................... 6-1 4A. Geography and Geology of the Tanana Basin SA. Placer Mining Model (Both Precious and Base Metals) 5B. Alaska Tax Structure 5C. Mine Models 50. Consumer Benefits from Coal Used for Power Generation 5E. Value of Coal for Space Heating SF. Energy Cost per Million BTU's (1982 Dollars) _j Chapter I , j Introduction . .11 .J .., \ -. I This report completes Phase I of the Alaska State Department of Natural Resources Tanana Basin Area Planning process. The report inventories in format ion on minerals in the Basin and it will serve as the basis for the continuing phases of the planning process. This information is part of a resource inventory of seven resources including fish and game, agriculture, forestry, minerals, outdoor recreation, settlement (land disposals) and water. The information included in this report was gathered by the Tanana Basin Area Planning staff of the DNR Division of Research and Development. People who participated in the production of this report include, Susan TOdd (Project Manager, Tanana Basin Area Plan); Glenn Miller (Mining Engineer, Division of Minerals and Energy Management); and Jeffrey Pederson (Research Assistant). The information presented here is not an exhaustive study of minerals in the Basin; such a study is beyond the scope of the Tanana Basin Area Plan. Due to the very nature of minerals, it is difficult to say with any confidence exactly where they are located or how much they are or will be worth. However, we have attempted to pull together much of the information available and present it in a way that will supplement existing information and be a useful 'tool for planriers in developing resource policies. 1-1 Chapter2 Issues and Local Preferences ... =-o ---- --------------_.., CHAPTER2. ISSUES CONCERNING STATE LAND MANAGEMENT I. Introduction Issues and local preferences are important pieces of information which must be incorporated into the planning process. Issues concerning the use of a specific resource provide a focus and frame~mrk for the planning process; local preferences show how the public feels these issues should be resolved. In-this section of this report, issues and local preferences are documented for incorporation in the planning process through the work of the Planning Team Members. A. Issues An issue is something which is debated. For example, the amount of land to be disposed of is an issue; some people favor more land and others would prefer less. Another issue is the effect of agriculture on fish and game; some feel that the effect is positive, others feel that it is negative or neutral. The purpose of this paper is simply to report the issues objectively without siding with any particular viewpoint. These issues are then to be addressed in the Tanana Basin Area plan which will create policies to deal with them. The issues reported here are those which the plan can affect through classifications or management guidelines. The issues identified in this chapter were collected and summarized from three sources. -The public meetings that were held in the Tanana Basin during the spring of 1982 was the first source of issues used for this chapter. Planning team members, after reading the comments from the public meetings developed a series of issues concerning the resource they represent. The Tanana Basin Plan sketch ele- ments were a second source used to identify issues. The sketch elements were developed in 1981 to provide a start- ing point for the Tanana Basin Area plan. The issues iden- tified in the sketch elements were based on conversations with agencies, resource experts and public interest groups. The third source was interviews with agency repre- sentatives. B. Local Preferences ~; Local preferences about how these issues should be addressed were determined from two principal sources. One of the sources which will be used in the planning process for developing local preferences is a series of community -originated land use plans. Several communities are ~ ----------c·urnm_t_l_y-wo-rKt-n-g-on-----p-roposeapians for state Ian d-in the i'_r ______ _ area; others have already submitted proposals to DNR. -==---------... These local land use plans provide a clear indication of what a community prefers. This is particularly true when a proposal receives endorsement of · village councils, city councils, native corporations, and other interest groups in the area. The possibility of doing land use plans was mentioned at the public meetings and in a newsletter that was sent to all communi ties. Only a few of the communi ties, however, have decided to submit proposals. Most of these proposals will not be completed until February, but some have been on file with the State Department of Natural Resources and are included in. this report. The Tanana Basin Public Meetings are the other source of information on local preferences. Public meetings were held in all communities in the Basin in the spring of 1982 to discuss the Tanana Basin Area Plan. The notes from these meetings were then given to members of the planning team who then developed the summaries included here. The summaries represent the planning team members'understanding of how residents want state land in their area managed for a specific resource. These sources of local preferences are not as accurate as a public survey, but in most cases, they represent the only information available. They should not be considered to be representative of the entire community; they are simply indications of the opinions of some of the resi- dents. A survey now being conducted by the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs will provide a better in- dication of local preferences in the Tok area. The results of this survey will be available to the planning team by March of 1983. ------------ 2-2 . , . ; ~ ~. ISSUFS CONCERNING MINERALS The following issues concerning minerals were drawn from the public meetings, sketch elements and intervie\iS with agency repr~sentatives: ISSUE 1. The .amount of state land left open to mineral exploration and mining. ISSUE 2. Disposal of surface rights over lands with known or potential minerals or energy resources. ISSUE 3. The effect of recreation activity on mineral exploration and development. ISSUE 4. The effect of habitat and forestry classifi- cations on mineral exploration and development. ISSUE 5. The effect of agricultural projects on mineral activity • ISSUE 6. The effect of mineral-related activity on fish and game resources. ISSUE 7 • The effect of mineral-related activity on water quality and the environment. ISSUE 8. The effect of mineral-related activity on recreation. ISSUE 9. The effect of mineral-related activity on forestry. ISSUE 10. The effect of mineral-related activity on agriculture. ISSUE 11. The effect of mineral-related activity on land disposals. 2-3 . , .J MINERALS & ENERGY ISSUFS BY COMMUNITY ANDERSON: -we would like to see disposals open to mining on a small scale if you own the land; -no one can use the gravel except the state; let free enterprise build the roads. CANTWELL: -The state should look at very long term leases for minerals; -Mining leases can be compatible with other uses. This helps diversify the economy; Fish and Game is too restrictive on the sediment in streams. Nature does more damage than most miners • DOT LAKE: -Study the impacts of disposals on local areas; the impact on the fish and game, minerals, communities and state residents; . -With mining, you should discourage something like strip mining which destroys habitat; HEALY: The State shouldn't have mineral rights to the land. When the state sells land, it should include the minerals rights. MANLEY HOT SPRINGS: Seems kfnd of outrageous when the state creates mining v. disposal conflicts. The state should look at what's going on in the area at present before they dispose; -With oil and gas leases, the area will be criss-crossed with trails, providing open access to the area. It'll be a perfect place for people to get to moose; not for moose to get away. The area will look like California --roads and trails all over the place; -That oil and gas lease sale: given that geologists place such slim chances on finding things -it seems ridiculous to go ahead with the sale; There is a lot of small mining activity in the area. Although no one here tonight mines, there are a lot of people in the area concerned about it; MENTASTA LAKES: MINTO: There are some mines in the area like Slade Creek which don't really disturb the area; -The beaver have all moved out. There are no fish ·, because mining has bothered the rivers. No rat ~ ~ ~ ~-~· .. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~( ·MI:l·&~Fa~1:h I'le~·fl~~llh:r.J:.s • -~hav~~seerr·cm·±mai~s~~stm::x-~~-~~ ~~~ ~·~ ~ ~ the mud because of mining. _/ We lost some land to mining activity. Sand has covered it. 2-4 MINTO continued: -There's a place where there used to be a slough -but no slough anymore. Birch and Goldstream Creeks. Mining filled it up~ -We used to go all the time up to Dunbar but it's no creek anymore because of mining~ -All the lakes are getting filled up with sand. This hurts the animals. Caribou, moose get caught in the mud that is in all the creeks now~ they can't get out; -We don't want to loose the land, that's all~ -If the state gives mining claims the should control them and protect water~ -Put stronger control on mining~ -Hold off development just for a few yea~s while we get our feet on the ground. All the people coming in, the roads, the change. The old people know it is coming. Just let it come slow. Give them a chance~ -Leave the Chatanika alone. It's a lifeline for us~ NENANA: -Should be access to existing claims~ Development of minerals could be good for the area; Oil development is compatible with agriculture; Access to mineral areas may cause problems~ Farmers may not want compensation from mineral development activities on their land, but may want to keep their land instead~ Oil and Gas can co-exist with settlement and agriculture~ In the plan, consider and allow for change in what is considered a "significant mineral deposit"~ Keep settlement away from mineralized areas. NORTHWAY: -Mineral areas. just go hunting TANACROSS: exploration doesn't really bother subsistence Miners usually don't use heavy equipment and through an area. But, in areas of good and lots of pro~pecting there is a problem. -(note) no specific comments on mining/minerals and energy development, but concerned with habitat protection. TANANA: -Concern over the impact of mining on lakes. Mining filled up Fish Lake; -Miners make a mining road out of a trail to Manley which means it isn't food for dogs anymore; -Mining is going on in the area --around Tozitna River Valley. It's just the start of mining in this area; -But it's only seasonal, which helps; ____ --=-_Ut> American CreekLTofty_the_r_e __ is_mining __ go_ing __ on_. ___ Lt ________ _ hasn't bothered me as long as they stay over there. -The road to Tofty hasn't changed much here. We haven't felt any impact. 2-5 ' ,, Âl!A!:JaV 8UJU!W pauuu1d pou toa.1.1n~ ':JSUd ' .... This chapter discusses the past, current and planned mining activity in the Tanana Basin. The information was obtained in the unpublished report entitled The Geology and Mineral Resources of the Tanana Basin, Alaska prepared by the staff of the lJN.H., Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (1984). I. PAST PRODUCTION Interest in gold placers of the Yukon-Tanana Basin in Alaska and Canada began in 1~70 when prospectors ventured north from southern Canada and the USA. Initially the Fortymi le, Circle, and l:tampart districts were discovered prior to the 40th century--no doubt aided by proximity to navigable portions of the Tanana and Yukon l:tivers. Most of the rest of the strikes in the Tanana Basin were 11 spin offs" of the Klondike gold rush. Gold was discovered in the Fairbanks district in 1904, Bonnifield in 190~, Tenderfoot or Richardson in 1905, and finally Liven~ood in 1914. Essentially all mineral pro- duction that took place prior to 1950 involved activities within these camps. The pat tern of development of the 11 yellow metal 11 in each area was similar. Initial dis- coveries of rich deposits resulted in high grading by individuals and small companies. In most of the districts, underground driftin~ through frozen 6round was the principal mining method. By World War I, most of the rich deposits were exhausted. Coinci- dentally many youn~ miners enlisted into military service with America's entrance into the 'Great War' , and never returned to the north country. By 1940 the gold industry was only a fraction of the size during peak 190~-1910 years. Construction of the Alaska Railroad from Seward to Nenana--later extended to Fairbanks--was ordered by President Woodrow Wilson in 1915. Eight years later, President Warren Harding drove the golden spike at North Nenana. This important transportation mode would have far reaching effects on mineral development in the basin. In 194:J, the USS.H.&M Company acquired large tracts of placer ground in the Fairbanks area with the intention of establishin~ large scale floating dredge production units. The company spent $48 million in exploration and development projects that included construction of a 90-mile-long 'Davidson Ditch,' dredges, roads, and a large power plant. The first dredge was in production in 1948 and by 1940 eight of these nuge gold boats were extracting severn-··-hu:narea~~t-housarta. ounces of-placer goia-artnua-TTy (Boswell, 1979). The electric 3-1 Table3-1 Cu1D.D1ulative voluJDe and value of JDinerals, Tanana Basin 1880-1981 1 Value Metals District Volume (in 1982 dollars) -' Gold Fairbanks 7,940,000 oz 3,176,000,000 Hot Springs 440,000 oz 176,000,000 Tolovana 387,000 oz 154,800,000 (or Livengood) Bonnifield 50,000 oz 20,000,000 Richardson 103,000 oz 41,200,000 Delta 2,500 oz 1,000,000 Tok 500 oz 200,000 Kantishna 65,000 oz 26,000,000 Subtotal 8,988,000 oz 3,595,200,000 Antimony Fairbanks 3,800,000 lb 3,850,000 Tolovana 344,400 lb 347,844 Tok 100,000 lb 101,000 Kantishna 5,000,000 lb 5,050,000 Bonnifield 50,000 lb 50,500 Subtotal 9,294,000 lb 9,399,344 Tungsten Fairbanks 4,700 short 564,000 ton units ., Tin Manley 700,000 lb 4,795,000 ::....,_ Lead and zinc Industrial minerals 2 Sand and gravez Building stone Coal Fairbanks Kantishna 150,000 lb 70 million tons 5 million tons 18 million tons Total value 130,000 700,000,000 40,000,000 403,200,000 $4,753,158,344 1All values are estimates. Approximately 1 million ounces of silver have been recovered as a by-product of gold refining; 250,000 ounces of silver were produced from primary lodes at Kantishna. Gold production modified from 2Robinson and Bundtzen (1979). Very rough estimates based on local interviews. Historical records are very incomplete. 3-2 dredges were furnished with power from a power plant in Fairbanks, the largest in the state until World War II. The source of the energy for the plant was the Healy coal fields--110 miles south of town. Except for a brief shut down in World War II, the USSR&M dredges operated until 1964, and seasonally employed 350-1,300 local area residents. Beginning in the mid-1970s, all of the historic placer districts in the basin underwent a production revival. Today at least 60 nonfloat mechanized operations employing 350 people are active. Hard rock gold development in the basin never seriously competed with placer operations. However, in the Fairbanks area, several hundred lodes were discovered in the Clear-Pedro Dome and Ester areas. Small stamp mills wer erected and selected, high grade ores were milled from at least 25 different deposits; the largest producing property was the Cleary Hill mines at the base of Cleary Summit (Hill, 1933). Other important producers include the Hi Yu, McCarty, Newsboy, and Kawalita deposits on Cleary Hill and the Mohawk, Ready Bullion, Billy Sunday, and Grant mines on Ester Dome. A substantial portion of development interest today centers on some of these lodes (see develop- ment section; p. 20). Other hard rock gold developments in the basin include the Old Smokey near Livengood, the Liberty Belle deposit east of Healy, and the Tibbs Creek area at the head of Salcha River. Minerals other than gold and coal have been developed in the basin. During World War I European nations needed the strategic minerals tin, tungsten, and antimony. Development of all three commodities occurred in the Fairbanks and Manley areas. During 1915-18, lodes in the Pedro Dome-Ester area were among the largest domestic suppliers of antimony. Through 1971, antimony and tungsten have been exploited in the Fairbanks, TOk, Bonnifield, and Tolovana districts, coincident with the high price surges. Tin has enjoyed the most stable price levels and has been recovered annually since the 1920s as a by-product of gold mining near Manley (Table 1). A few carloads of lead-zinc-silver concentrates have been shipped from two· lodes in the Fairbanks area, by- product lead and zinc were shipped from silver-gold ores in the Kantishna district prior to 1973. Beginning with the early 1950s, production of coal, ~~~~.~~SandT aond-g~ravel increased enormOUSly, largely d result Of demands from various military construction projects in the interior. Coal production again surged with a decision by 3-3 Golden Valley Electric Association mouth power plant at Healy. Sand and an all time high in the basin with Trans Alaska Pipeline. to construct a mine grvel production hit construction of the Today the triad--gold, sand and gravel, and coal-- forms the cornerstone of the mineral industry in the Tanana Basin. D. CURRENT PRODUCTION A. Metal Production In 1981 the Tanana Basin as a whole accounted for roughly 55,000 ounces of gold; about 40 percent of the state's total output. Major producing areas were the Fairbanks, Hot Springs, Richardson, and Livengood districts (Bundtzen, 1982}. Gold was also recovered from the Bonnifield and Delta districts. A new placer area was opened near Bitzshtini Mountain on the western boundary of the study area; at least three placer developments were active in 1981 and 1982. Although previous investigations indicated the presence of gold in this regiont there is no known past production. Tungsten concentrates were shipped from Gilmore Dome lode in 1981; there was no production in 198 2. However, tin concentrates were shipped from the Manley area during both 1981 and 198 2. In format ion on exact quantities of tin and tungsten produced is not available. B. Structural and Industrial Materials In 1981, seven sand and gravel operators in the Fairbanks area mined about one million tons of material for landfill, construction, and road-building projects; the leading producer was Fairbanks Sand and Gravel. Yutana Construction Company operated the Browns Hill basalt quarry on Badger Road. Mining methods include bench drilling and blasting, grizzly and crusher processing, and mine haulage similar to small-scale, open-pit mining methodology. Remaining reserves are estimated at 30 million cubic yards. At least 20 Fairbanks-area studio and production potters use montmorillonite clays from the Healy coal field for making a variety of pots and handcrafts. Us ibell i Mines has, in the past, supplied railroad carloads of clay to local users. As much as 40 tons of wet clay may be used in a single year. value of the finished product is uncer- tain, but may approach $75,000 annually. +=-== = = = -= = ~ --= ~ -~ = = = ~ -- -' 3-4 C. Coal Production Usibelli Mines (Healy) was the only significant coal mine in the state. Production in 1981 was about 800,000 tons, worth $17. 6 million, a 6 percent increse over the previous year. Usibelli is involved in a significant expansion into the Pacific Rim export market. A contract signed in 1981 calls for delivery of coal to Korea starting in 1982. The contract, which is for 200,000 tons in 1982 rising to 800,000 tons in 1984, covers a ten-year time span. There is some doubt concerning the completion of handling facilities to enable timely deliveries. Table3-2 Estbnated Current Annual Mineral Production in the.Tanana Basin Metals Gold Tungsten Tin 55,000 ounces actual quantity not available. actual quantity not available. Structural and Industrial Materials sand and gravel riprap, ballast and fill montmorillonite clay Coal Peat 1 million tons 340,000 cubic yards 40 tons 800,000 tons 10,000 cubic yardsl !Estimate based on interviews with local suppliers. Source: ADNR, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, Geology and Mineral Resources of the Tanana Basin, Alaska, 1982. 3-5 ., . , ·-' III. PLANNED MINING PROJECTS Two medium sized mining ventures within the Basin have reached a development schedule, the Grant Mine on E:ster Dome and the CNR placer operation near Livengood. Both of these mines will contribute to the local economy if they come into full production • A.Grant Mine and Ester Dome Development, Tri-Con, Inc., Fairbanks. Tri-Con, Inc., operator for Silverado Mines, Ltd., of Vancouver, British Columbia, has been engaged in an aggressive development program on E8ter Dome (H miles west of Fairbanks) for the last 3 years. The focus of the development is the reopening of the old Grant Mine on tlappy Road. Exploration and development of the mine have been intermittent since the 19~0s. Prior to 1950, about o,OOO tons of ore were selectively mined from the Irishman vein (Roger Burggraf, personal communi cation, 1981). Tri -Con, Inc. , has been developi n~ the property during the last several years and now has a gravity feed mi 11 faci 1 i ty there. During 19~0, 870 tons of ore, with an average grade of 0.45 ounce/ton gold, were milled through the pilot plant. In 1981, just under 1, 000 ounces of gold were recovered from approximately 1,500 tons of ore. According to recent estimates the company had blocked out about 76,000 tons of mill-feed ore through December of 1981. Under a late 1980 agreement with Range Minerals Corporation, ~ti~ state mining claims immediately sur- rounding the Grant Property were brought under control so that Silverado now manages about 14 square miles on Ester Dome. The company hopes to bring several auriferous veins into production to collectively feed the mill at a rate of 100-500 Tt>D. Underground development work continued from May 1980 to December 1981, but the Grant Mine remained inoperative through the 1982 field season. Plans for 1983 are dependent on resolution of financing. A crew of ~b, including exploration per so nne 1, was employed during the year. Total 1981 development expenditures exceeded $~ million. B. CNR Placer Operations, Livengood District. ~ · ~ ~ ~--~ ~ ~-·· --~Li~v·en·g·ood· -Join·t V:e·ntures (LJV), consortium of Asamera Minerals, Canadian Natural Hesources, and ~tanford Mine~ of Canada and the United States, is attempting to develop one 3-6 ., of the lar~est unworked placer deposits in the United States. The Livengood ~old camp was discovered in 1!114, and has si nee produced about 400,000 ounces of gold. By 1940, 1 arge bench deposits, which vary from 100 to 1, 000 feet in width and extend for at least 6 miles were dis- covered on Livengood Creek. Drilling confirmed the presence of about aUU,UOO ounces of gold reserves, and in the 1940's a large dredge was moved i. n to the area. The present LJV consortium has learned that all phases of the gold-mining process cannot be feasibly completed during the short summer seasons, especially because the thick overburden must be mechanically moved by heavy equipment. Heavy equipment has difficulty maneuvering the thawed muck, and expensive mechanical failures and downtime have hindered the project. In the winter of 1981, LJV contracted Doyon, Ltd., to strip overburden from the bench and construct a large settling pond; both projects were completed in June. In 19~1, one of the first Caterpillar U-10 tractors ever used in Alaska began work on the project. Annual production since 197~ varies from ~OU to about a,OUO ounces, and a 10-million cubic yard block of ground has been classified by LJV as their current reserve base. The present washing plant consists of two standard sluice boxes arranged en-echelon and fed by a do;.c;er or front-end loader. For the project to sustain desired production levels, additions to the present wash facility are planned. A large washing plant acquired during 1981 operated through the 1982 season. LJV constructed a 200-man camp to serve their operation. Employment levels vary from 50 to lOU personnel throughout most of the mining season. Specific development figures have not been released for this study, but 1981 expenditures are believed to exceed $a million. Expenditures for this season (1982) have not been released at the time of this writing. 3-7 l j i 1 J l l l ' j l ' l 1 l 1 , -, --- .1 j j 1 j Chapter4 Mineral Potential of the Tanana Basin j ------ - ---------------------------------------- .i _; PART 1. PHYSICALCAPABILilY Due to the nature of subsurface minerals, 'i.t is not possible to give estimates of the amount of mineral deposits in the Basin. Unlike many of the other resources, minerals cannot be inventoried easily and new deposits can be discovered in areas which were previously thought to contain few prospects. However, through the examination of several different pieces of information, areas with high probability for certain types of minerals can be deline- ated. This does not mean that minerals will not be found elsewhere, it simply means that the probability is greater that minerals will be found in these areas. Given new research and information, additional areas may be added to the map and this possibility should be kept in mind during the planning process. This report summarizes what is currently known about the mineral resources in the Tanana Basin, including descriptions of promising mineral deposits and current levels of exploration • Commodities examined here include base and precious metals, coal, strategic minerals and industrial commodities. I. CRITERIA USED TO PRODUCE THE MAPS OF PHYSICAL CAPABILilY FOR MINERAL RESOURCES I ' ' The map showing the reg ion • s mineral potential includes information on current mining claims, known mineral occurrences and mineral terranes. The map itself has not been reproduced for this report due to time constraints, but is available at the DNR, Division of Land and Water Management office in Fairbanks. The map was based on methods described by Eakins and others (1979) and supplemented by the University of Alaska's AEIDC Mineral Terrane Map (Hawley, 1979). Private sector input on recent developments and exploration was also incorporated and gratefully acknowledged. The DGGS-tURL Interior mining districts project provided important new information on mineral potential in the Fairbanks and Livengood areas. Much of the specific resource data shown on the map was compiled from Cobb (1973), Berg and Cobb (1964), MacKevett and Holloway (1977) and Eberlien et al. (1977). Four basic factors were integrated to determine mineral potential for this study: ( 1) mineral terranes; (2) exploration activities; (3) mine developments; (4) , .. mining cl:aim, ·blocks-;-· (·5) known· re-serves-(·tra·sed on·-su·rr.:.. surface work); ( 6) production (past or present); and ( 7) mineral indicators. Such factors can be scored in a 4-1 I I ·relative sense resulting in a mineral potential per unit area of land. In 1978, DGGS completed evaluation of 15,000 townships statewide in such a manner (Eakins et ·· al., 1979). The various.criteria used to evaluate each township are summarized in Table 4-1. It is important to keep in assessments are dependent upon the tion. The data base for most of needs to be updated. mind that such resource availability of informa- Alaska is deficient and The concept of mineral terranes, which was one of the criteria used to develop the map is discussed below. In addition, current exploration activities are examined here. Current mining activity and developments, which were also used as criteria in the mapping process, were dis- cussed in more detail in Chapter 3. A discussion of the geology of the Basin is presented ~n Appendix A. A. Mineral Terranes Geologists recognize that specific types of mineral" lodes occur within unique lithologic rock packages. For example, most platinum, asbestos, chrome, and nickel lodes occur within basic or ultramafic rocks formed at high temperatures and pressu~es--conditions deep in the earth's crust. Recognition of new discoveries of these rocks usually leads to at least a cursory search for these commodities. Geologists have formulated numerous models of rock deposition that explain the distribution of mineral lodes. In Alaska, it has long been known that such mineral trends can be followed for many tens of miles along strikes. Under these assumptions, Hawley ( 1979) assembled all available information on mine...ral resources of the 49th state and produced a mineral terrane map of Alaska at 1:1,000,000 scale. The approach stresses the genetic significance of many mineral deposits to both rock types and their environment of deposition. A modified version of these mineral terranes is summarized on the physical capability map (available at DRD) and in Table 4-2. Most of the mining activities prior to World War II focused on placer gold districts. Prospectors and miners searched using the often valid assumption that placer gold was the geologic signature of many undiscovered metal lodes. However, important mineral lodes do not always produce sizeable placer gold in adjacent streams for a variety of reasons. ----. ---- - - - - - - - - - - - - - --------------------- -" In the mid-1970s, modern mineral exploration conducted by mining companies and geologic mapping programs by ·government agencies have contributed significantly to the 4-2 Table 4-1 Criteria Used in DGGS Township Level Mineral Potential of Alaska, FroiD Eakins and Others (1979) 1. Industry nominations 2. Claim density 3. Exploration activity 4. Mineral indicators 5. Deposit types including lithology, stratigraphy, age, trends, igneous association, structure, ore controls and geophysical indicators. A. Hydrothermal vein deposits B. Ultramafic deposits c. Marine evaporites and phosphorite deposits D. Placer deposit~ E. Stratiform and syngenetic F. Felsic igneous deposits G. Porphyry deposits H. Mafic igneous 6. Past production 7. Ore reserves 8. Unit value of ore 9. Ore processing requirements 10. Geophysical surveys 11. Regional geology 12. Tectonics: regional structure 13. Metamorphic grade 14. Strategic importance 15. Access 16. Transportation routes 17. Climate 4-3 Ta1tle4-2 - Mineral Terranes and CoJDJDodity Grouping for Tanana Basin, Mineral terrane Plutonic-igneous Shales and· carbonates Coal bearing Mixed igneous and sedimentary Modified froiD Hawley (1979) Deposit types Stockworks or dis- seminated porphyry, fracture fillings Replacement, syngen- etic-stratiform, veins Bedded, roll fronts Stratiform, veins~ disseminated 4-4 Dominant mineral Copper,molybdenum, gold, silver, tungsten, tin, base metals uranium, rare earths, platinum Lead, zinc, silver, barite, phosphate, in- dustrial grade limestone Coal, uranium Copper, lead , zinc, uranium, gold, silver, tungsten, tin __ , Basin. By 1975, it became apparent to economic geologists that certain volcanic and . sedimentary rock units in the central Alaska Range (Bonnifield District) were not only lode sources of placer gold but also hosts of significant base metal stratiform mineral deposits (see Figure 4-1 for a map of the mining districts). The primary host lithologies have been members of the Totatlanika Schist, but other units are mineralized as well. At least six large deposits containing copper, lead, zinc, gold, and silver were discovered using a model suggesting metal accumulations in association with volcanic buildups on an ocean floor over 330 million years old (Gilbert and Bundtzen, 1979). In 1977, geologists with Resource Associates of Alaska (RAA) recognized that a specific belt of volcanic and sedimentary rocks near Tok contained important metal occurrences. These host lithologies are similar but probably not identical to those found in the Bonnifield district further to the west. At least 25 deposits of significance have been discovered--in an area devoid of placer gold and considered to have low mineral potential prior to 1977. During 1980-81, the DGGS and University of Alaska MIRL jointly conducted a geologic assessment of the Fairbanks mining district--historically known for placer and hard rock gold-antimony-tungsten deposits. Prior to this work, most geologists believed that hard rock gold and other metal deposits were classic hydrothermal 'veins' eminating from nearby igneous sources. While most deposits in the Fairbanks area are cross- cutting, metal bearing quartz veins, Smith and others (1981) have shown that virtually all important mineral deposits in the district are hosted in rock types of the 'Cleary Sequence,' a distinctive group of volcanogenic rock particularly well exposed near Cleary Hill. Anomalous metal content in rocks, soil, and stream sediments and high arsenic values in ground water are ubiqutous indic~tors of the Cleary Sequence. Recognition of the Cleary Sequence has been and should continue to be an important factor in the land use policies of the general Fairbanks are. Both environmental quality and mineral potential need to be stressed. A remarkably similar group of rocks was found by Bundtzen (1981) to contain most of the mineral lodes in the Kantishna mining district in the southwest portion of the Tanana Basin. ______________ !ll __ J.98 2, the DGGS evaluated state lands ___ Ln ___ t_h~-----______ _ ~ Livengood area for mineral potential as part of the Interior mining district's study. This study has shown a possible lithologic control for gold and base metals as 4-5 ~I ! I ! I L , ,J Hot Springs District Kantishna District J l_ I ,j ;J Bonnifield District Figure 4-1 Location of M • • 1 ·. o· t • t T B • . IRing IS ric., anana aSin .J i...' L ' "" Fairbanks District Delta District Richardson District 0.._-===-...,;,4.::0==--==80 MILES :.J Tok District ' J l. ' j -' well as an untested new model for gold placer deposits (Robinson and others, 1982). Similar studies in the Richardson district have shown that recognition of a linear feature, the Richardson Lineament, can aid in the discovery of new mineral deposits (Bundtzen and Reger, 1977). B. Exploration Activities In addition to mineral terranes, ties are an important indicator of the the Basin. Exploration activities separated by commodity. I. Exploration for Base Metals exploration acti vi- mineral potential of dis~ussed here are Union Carbide, Phillips Minerals, Resource Associates of Alaska, Anaconda Minerals Co., Resource Associates of Alaska, Patino, WGM, Inc., and Northern Lights Exploration spent an estimated $5.4 million exploring for base metals, primarily along the north flank of the Alaska Range and in the Yukon-Tanana Upland (Site A, Figure 4-2). Numerous massive-sulfide deposits occur in a belt of deformed tuff, metavolcanic, and exhalative units of probable Devonian age in the eastern Alaska Range between the Tok and Robertson Rivers (Delta mineral belt;. Tok mining district). Geologists with Resource Associates of Alaska made the original discoveries in 1976 and 1977, and an exploration agreement was arranged with Anaconda Minerals Co. in 1980. At least 35 prospects have been examined over the last few years, and over $10 million have been expended in explor- ation. These fine-grained, pyritiferous, base-metal deposits have impressive strike lengths, contain high precious-metal values, and crop out in 'rugged terrane. Although Delta is a very promising district, no formal announcements have been made. One consultant suggested that several prospects could commence development by 1986. Further to the west, work continues on stratiform, polymetallic (copper, lead, and zin~) deposits in the Bonnifield mining district east of Healy. In 1975 and 1976, Getty Oil and Resource Assocites of Alaska discovered deposits near Anderson Mountain, Virginia Creek, and Dry Creek (Site B, Figure 4-2). Reconnaissance diamond drilling was completed on several of the properties by 1977. Exploration, at a cost of several hundred thousand dollars, was completed in 1981. About the same level of ~-_ ---~~ ~-~~~l:_v}_1:_~-~~nti!l_~ec!_ i1!__~~8 ~. _____ _ ______ _ -' 4-7 L1 .J ' ,j A YuJ:con-Tanana Upland 8 An~erson Mtn, Virginia Cr., Dry Cr. C Salcha River Area D Sh~ep Creek I E Ester Dome F Cle~ry Hill I I L '' J TANANA BASIN AREA a SCALE IN MILES () 12 24 Figure 4-2. Exploration Sites for Base Metals Resource Associates of Alaska, Union Carbide, Hear Creek Mining Company, and Houston International Minerals Company (HIMCO) explored deposits containin;5 tungsten and tin. HIMCO continued work on tungsten bearing skarn mineralization north of ::>a lcha H.i ver and dri 11 i ng results indicate encouraging amounts of mineralization (Site C, Figure 4-~). Resource Associates of Alaska conducted ground and airborne geophysical investigations near Fairbanks in search of scheelite deposits. Bear Creek Mining continued work on a massive sulfide deposit, with anomalous tin zones, near Sheep Creek, 13 miles east of the railhead at tlealy (Site u, Figure 4-~). This occurrence of tin constitutes a new type of target that is poorly d6cumented in Alaska. 2. Exploration for Precious Metals hard ruck gold exploration efforts in the Tanana Basin include those directed by Resource Associates of Alaska, St. Jbe Minerals, Placid Oil, Silverado Mines, Inc., Houston International Minerals, and Getty Oil. Interest in development of the area's numerous gold lodes has recently revived. Since i97Y, St. Joe American has completed trenchi~g, samplingf ~nd 10,000 feet of diamond drilling on the Ryan Lode on Ester Dome near Fairbanks (Site E, Figure 4-2). Past reserve estimates suggest that about~ million tons of gold ore may exist on site, and St. Joe's efforts have confirmed the presence of a large reserve of undisclosed grade. Poor ground hampered underground bulk sampling efforts in 1981, and a 500 foot long decline was abandoned. The company plans further work on the Ryan deposit in 198~; both open-pit and underground options are being considered. Tri -Con, Ltd. is exploring a large claim block on Ester Dome in conjuncti6n with operation of the Grant Gold Mine (Site E, Figure 4-2). A ~5-man crew was active in 1981. This company conceptually views the development of several auriferous veins and shears that would provide feed for a medium-sized mill (2V0-5VO TPD). Placid Oil drove a 1,500 foot long adit into the Kawali ta vein system on Cleary Hi 11 and began an under- ground sampling program (Site F, Figure 4-~). Twelve of an estimated 25 operators in the Fairbanks district spent $400, OUO improving their reserve base with ......... ____ d.F_i))_~-~-~----~-t!_'! ____ ~~-~p_~y-~!_~al __ i.!_l~~-~-t,~g~~!<?I!.~. __ !_!! __ _!_~~-!:_• _____ -~Ll!!.<!.S_t . _ _ _________ _ $300,000 was expended for similar efforts in the Manley, 4-9 Livengood, and Rampart districts (see Figure 4-l). Long a dormant region, the Bonnifield district east of Healy was explored for placer gold by five companies. Twelker, Fitch, and Associates and Sedcore, Ltd., conducted contract exploration activities using sonic drilling techniques regionwide. This technological advance in drilling appears to hold promise because, among other advantages, normally expensive placer drilling costs could be substantially reduced. 3. Exploration for Industrial and Structural Materials Although outside the Tanana Basin, the most signifi- cant industrial mineral exploration in the general region is focused on the asbestos deposits owned by Doyon, Ltd., at Slate Creek in the Yukon-Tanana Upland. These deposits are at an advanced exploration stage. Several companies are also exploring for agricultural grade limestone suitable for use as a soil conditioner, under the assumption that the production of grain near Delta will eventually require a local source of mineral fertilizers. No figures of expenditures or results are available. 4. Exploration for Coal Routine exploration is being conducted by Usibelli Mines, Inc. near Healy in conjunction with coal produc- tion. In addition, Canadian Superior examined coal deposits on the north flank of the Alaska Range and Fairbanks firm continued exploration and feasibility studies of the Jarvis Creek coal field south of Fort Greely. Published reserve-resource estimates are on the order of 70 million tons of subbituminous coals, one-third of which appear amenable to strip mining techniques (McGee and Emmel, 1979). Present plans are to supply coal to the Delta Junction area for local power generation and possibly for agricultural grain drying facilities. Preliminary demand estimates are on the order of 50,000 tons/year, about one-twelfth the size of production at Healy. C. Other Criteria Used to Produce the Map of Mineral Potential Other criteria used to map the mineral potential which have not been discussed in detail here are presented in ~-_______ ~ _Table---4~1-and __ in __ chap_ter--3-·---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -4-10 r L..i LJ u 1: l n j u n u D D c [ D ~~ i u ~ ------- ChapterS Benefit · Cost Analysis l l. INTRODUCTION This chapter presents the results of a preliminary . study which assesses the relative economic value of mining in the Tanana River Basin. It is part of a study of the economic value of managing state land for six different resources: settlement, agriculture, fish and game, mineral develop- ment, forestry and recreation. Each resource is examined separately first; combined mahagement for multiple use will be discussed in a separate paper. The first part of this chapter discusses both the method used to evaluate the economics of all the resources and the specific application of this method to mineral develop- ment. The second part of the paper presents the results of the analysis. The results are discussed according to five commodity groups and exploration activities. The commodity groups include 1) precious metals; 2) base metals; 3) industrial and structural materials; 4) coal and peat and 5) oil and gas. Exploration is included separately because often more than one commodity is sought and because even if no miner- als are found, there is a positive economic impact from this activity. The results of the benefit/cost analyses presented here are not absolute. In fact, they represent only an order-of- magnitude estimate of the economic value of the mining in- dustry. Because this is a preliminary study, it is depen- dent on relatively incomplete data and therefore it is not possible to pinpoint the exact ·economic value. Neverthe- less, this analysis indicates that the mining industry is making a substantial contribution to the current economy of the basin and it also has considerable potential. 5-1 PART 1. METHODS I. General Approach To Eeonom.ie Analysis Before discussing in detail the method used to evaluate minerals some background is necessary on the general approach to the consistent evaluation of all of the land management alternatives and the reasons for examining the economic value of these alternatives. There are three basic reasons for examining economic value. First, economic Information complements the physical information presented in Chapter 4 of this report and gives perspective on both what is happening now in the Basin and what the potential is. ~ecoodly, economic data supply important information concerni og the profitability of resource development; if a resource cannot be developed profitably, it probably wi 11 not have a lasting ef feet on the economy. Finally, because two objectives of the state government are economic development and diversification, economic information is needed to make decisions which may benefit the economy. The economic value of a resource has several meanings. ~conomi sts define economic value as the worth of an i tern or ac ti vi ty to society. This value can be measured in monetary prices in the rnar.ket place or it can be non-monetary. In the case of a business, its economic value can be measured in a relatively straight-forward way, in the form of a financial analysis of the profi ta bi l i ty of the enterprise. In other cases, such as recreation or hunting activities, there are economic values to the society which are not measured directly in monetary terms, but are imputed in people's behavior and spending patterns. Economic analysis at tempts to measure people's values, or the worth they place on different things, in terms of their behavior. It assumes that if people cherish something their economic behavior will reflect this, and thus their behavior can be used to indicate the worth which the people attach to something. In this respect, economic analysis is an analogous to an attitude survey which at tempts to measure people's values. For example, a view of Mt. McKinley may be considered a price less experience. However, many people place a great deal of worth on this experience and expectedly, this worth is reflected in their economic behavibr: the prices of homes with a good view of Mt. McKinley are significantly higher than those without such a view. Thus, the difference in the value of these homes compared to others of similar quality can indicate the minimum worth which people attach to the view. If the view were obstructed by some development, the property value decreases significantly. 5-2 . .J -' A. Evaluation Techniques ... There are two common methods available for determining the economic effects of public policy decisions. The first is referred to as cost-effectiveness and the second is benefit-cost analysis. Cost-effectiveness is simply a method for finding the least cost alternative for meeting a single objective. For example, if the objective is to improve public health there may be several alternative ways to meet this: more hospitals, better health instruction in schools, etc. Each approach would be costed out and the least cost alternative would be chosen. Unfortunately, this method is not of use in choosing between objectives. If there is not enough money to meet all objectives, then choices between objectives will have to be made and this method will not be of assistance. For this purpose, benefit-cost analysis has long been the preferred approach. First developed by the Corps of Engineers in the 1930's, the method has become increasingly common to all types of public policy decisions. In the 1950's, it was adapted to private sector decision-making and is now used by most of the major corporations to make investm~nt decisions. It is not a panacea, but it does provide a systematic approach and there is extensive literature which documents the ways in which benefit-cost analysis has been used to examine a vast variety of public policy questions. Therefore the benefit-cost approach is used in this report. B. Benefit-Cost Analysis Applied to Land Management Alternatives The approach used below determines net benefits (benefits minus costs) of each of six alterntive ways to manage land (mineral development, recreation, agriculture, fish and game, settlement and forestry). Each of these alternatives is examined separately at this stage, and combinations will be discussed during the next phase {Alternative Development) in order to evaluate the benefits of multiple use. · First it is necessary to define who gains and who loses from a particular land management alternative. Three groups are generally identified: producers, consumers and government. Producers are those who provide goods and/or services for a monetary return. Consumers purchase these goods and services. The government often incurs a cost for any land management approach and this is often offset by revenues received from user fees. For each of these three groups, it is necessary to know what their situation is now and what the effect of a change in land management policy would have. ~ ------ ----~ ---~~---~ -------------~~ -----------------------------~,-----------------------------·---~---------------~ ------------------~ -------------------------------------------= 5-3 ., _; . ;;) For example, recreational users are receiving some benefit from the use of state land. What effect would a decrease in the amount of state land open to recreation have on these "consumers"? Likewise, what would be the effect on local sawmills of an increase in the state's allowable cut? Also, how much would it cost the state to increase the amount of land disposals and what would be the return to producers and consumers of doing so? Benefit-cost analysis attempts to answer such questions. The results of the analysis are aggregated over a period of 20 years. This period of time was used for three reasons. First, the time horizon of the plan·is twenty years. Secondly, forecasting for a period beyond 20 years is very speculative and thirdly, the operation of the time value of money renders cash flows after 20 years insignificant. For example, $1000 received 40 years from now is worth only $22 today at a discount rate of 10%. The net benefits of any action must be discounted to arrive at their present value. The need to discount the net benefits arises from the fact that a dollar received several years from now is not worth as much as a dollar received today. Before the dollars received in different years can be added together, they must be converted to today's dollars by discounting. This process is similar to converting measurements in yards and feet, into inches before adding them together. The discount rate is generally set at the interest rate on borrowed funds. For this study, a discount rate of 10% was used which is the average interest rate charged on agricultural loans. Because it is impqrtant to be consistent, this rate was also used for the other resource evaluations. Each major step of the analysis is described below. Producers, consumers and the state government are examined separately first and then the results are totaled. I. Net Benefits to Producers First it is necessary to define who the producers are. In this study, they are defined as those who expect to make a financial return on the use of a resource. For many resources, more than one product may be involved, in which case the producers of each product are examined separately first and then the results are summed. For example, there are producers of lumber and producers of fuelwood. The profits of each are examined separately and then the results are summed • 5-4 . ,!' -.,.------ -" For each type of producer, net benefits are measured as profits.l The profits of an operation, such as a sawmill or farm, are measured in purely monetary terms. The first step in the analysis, is to determine if the resource development is financially feasible. If the development has been taking place for many years, this step is very straightforward: what are the estimated profits of the venture right now and what is the capacity for expansion? If, however, there is no current operation or if the development is expected to expand beyond current capacity, then a detailed financial feasibility analysis must be done to determine if the venture would be financially profitable. For example, if local sawmills have been turning a profit for many years, they can be assumed to be feasible. The next step is to determine the.likely timber supply if all available forest land were managed for timber. If the sawmills can already handle this increase in supply, then it is simply necessary to estimate profits. If they could not handle the supply, then it would be necessary to do a financial analysis of the expected costs and revenues to a new sawmill. A brief summary of the financial analysis required for each resource is given below: Settlement is unique as the purchase of a homesite is assumed to be "financially feasible". It is assumed that a person would not buy a parcel for more than its financial value to him. With forestry, preliminary estimates indicated that current capacity is likely to be able to handle the foreseeable increase in timber supply and therefore no detailed financial feasibility analysis was necessary. Only current and projected profits of existing operations were used. With fish and game, the producers were defined as those whose "principal" objective was financial return (guides, commercial fishermen, and trappers}. These ventures are expected to be able to handle the foreseeable supply and therefore no detailed financial feasibility analysis was necessary. Only current and projected profits of existing operations were used • !The analysis is complicated by the fact that a producer may also be contributing to the economy by such things as hiring people who may otherwise be unemployed.· Due to limited time and data, these opportuni~y costs were not evaluated in this study. 5-5 In mineral development, some types of minerals may be developed or expanded and a preliminary financial feasibility analysis was performed to estimate the likely returns to this industry. With agriculture, the Delta farming area is now operating so it is assumed to be feasible for present operators. Other areas in the Basin may not be feasible so it was necessary to perform a detailed financial feasibility analysis. For recreation, there is currently no large group of producers dependent on state land for recreational enterprises. There is some interest in commercial alpine skiing ventures, and a preliminary examination of the financial feasibility of this type of ventur1~ has been included. 2. Net Benefits to Consumers Consumers also stand to gain or lose due to changes in public policy. Consumers are defined in this study as those who purchase goods, services or "experiences" (as in the case of hunting or recreation). Benefits to consumers arise from two factors: 1) a decrease in the price of a good or an experience and 2) an increase in the quantity available of the good or of the experience. As in the analysis of producers, it is necessary to determine the status quo and/or potential and then the effect of a change in policy on consumers. The benefit to consumers is an increase in the welfare or standard of living of the State's citizens (benefits and costs to non-Alaskans have not been counted in this analysis since state policies are generally aimed at only the citizens of this state). ~ If a state policy changes either the price of a good or experience or the quantity available, then the welfare of the consumers is affected. ""' The analysis of consumers' net benefits require~ an understanding of the demand curve for a resource. As an example, consider the market for fuelwood in Fairbanks. You may find someone who would be willing to pay $120 per cord for a few cords because it is that valuable to them. Someone else might pay up to $110 per cord for a few cords, but if the price went any higher, they would burn another fuel. Yet another person would consider $90 their upper limit. If you could find each of these people and graph their maximum willingness to pay against the cumulative number of cords they would buy, the curve might look like the one shown in Figure 1. If the supply were 20,000 cords, then all of the people who would pay $70 or more would have purchased wood. The person who considered the wood to be worth only $69 per cord would not buy wood until the supply expanded and the price fell to what she considered the wood to be worth. ----------------------------------------------------------------------..--------------- '-'" 5-6 j 1' The most difficult aspect of the analysis of the benefit to consumers is to estimate the demand curve. Ideally, information could be obtained on different people's willingness-to-pay (their upper limit) and this would be graphed against the quantity of the good or experience which they purchase. However, in many cases this information is not available. Willingness to pay information is generally obtained from one of two sources: (1) through direct questions in a statistical survey and (2) indirectly through records on how much people actually paid for different quantities.! No accurate survey of the willingness-to-pay was available for any of the resources. However, it was possible to estimate the willingness-to-pay for hunting in the Basin through analysis of fish and game records. For the other resources, a less desirable but necessary substitute was used, called replacement cost. This technique assumes that people would be willing to pay an amount equal to the cost of the next best alternative. For example, if no firewood were available, people may have to switch to fuel oil and the cost of an equivalent amount of heat in the form of oil could be used as a proxy for the willingness-to-pay. This technique is less than ideal for two major reasons. First, it will underestimate what some people would be willing to pay. Someone may want to burn wood for aesthetic reasons and they will pay a lot for this pleasure. The willingness-to-pay approach should reflect such lifestyle or aesthetic values which people obtain from a resource. The replacement cost method assumes that only financial reasons are involved in the value consumers place on an activity or item, and is therefore a less desirable approach. Secondly, the replacement cost value is not accurate for those who would not switch to the assumed alternative but who would use some other replacement. Therefore, the replacement cost is not a precise estimate of the the true benefit to consumers (which is represented by triangle ABC in Figure 2). However, it is often the only alternative short of a detailed and expensive survey and it has been used in this study to estimate the benefits to consumers for each resource except fish and game (which had adequate data available to use the willingness-to-pay approach). 3. Net Benefits to the State The net benefit (or net cost) to the state was also estimated in order to give decision-makers an indication of what it costs the state, if anything, to provide benefits to producers and consumers. !This occurs only when people pay different amounts to obtain the -~ ______ s_ame __ go_o_d_,_s_e_r.Y_ic_e __ or_exp_er_Len_c_e_ ,_as __ in_th_e_cas_e __ of _hun_ting_or _____________ _ ~ recreation when non-residents generally pay much more to enjoy the same experience which Alaskans can enjoy everyday. 5-7 ) ; Dollars 10,000 20,000 CORDS Figure 1. Dem.and Curve for Fuelwood The shaded area in Figure 1 represents the value to each of the consumers. The person -who was willing to pay $120/cord has gotten a bargain because she only had to pay $70. The same is true for the person who would have paid $110 and the one who would have paid $90. , The one who would have paid only $70, however, must consider the deal just marginal; there is no "surplus" for him as he paid just what he thought it was worth. If the "surplus" for each individual who was willing to pay more were added together, the total value would be equal to the area of the tiiangle ABC shown in Figure 2. This shaded area determines the net benefit to the consumers. Dollars 120 110 90 -7--------------------------------~------------------~--------------------------~-------------------- ~ I 10,000 20,000 Figure 2. Hypothetical Consum.er Benefits from. Fuelwood 5-8 CORDS The net return to the state from the land disposal program, for example, is determined from the revenues obtained from the sale of land less the costs of administering the program and surveying the land. If the costs of a program exceeded the revenues to the state, then the decision maker should examine the total net benefits or costs (the sum of net benefits to producers, consumers and the state) to determine if the program has a positive effect overall. C. Other Important Indicators of Economic Effects Although benefit-cost analysis is the most thorough single method available for determining the benefits and costs to society, it does not cover all of the important economic effects which decision-makers need to consider in allocating land to different uses. Other important measures of the economic impact of resource use are also evaluated in this study in order to give·a more complete picture of the contribution of each resource to the economy. 1. Income Effects Income effects are an important measure of the impact of a particular industry on the economy. These effects are important for the· economic development of a region, which in many cases is an objective for the management of a resource. Therefore, these effects have been estimated for each resource. 2. Employment Effects Another concern of many decision-makers is the effect on employment of a change in policy. Estimates of these effects are therefore included in the evaluation of each resource. 3. Net Fiscal Effects on Local Government Although this study focuses on the benefits and costs to Alaskan consumers and producers, the effects of state decisions are also felt by local governments. Increases or decreases in tax revenue to local governments, balanced against changes in costs due to the policy, give an indication of the net fiscal effects to local governments. 4. External Costs and Benefits External benefits and costs are defined here as those social, environmental and economic effects which are not quantifiable but which are very important to decision-making. No analysis is ever truly complete in documenting every possible effect and evaluating each of them in some standa;-g~gfl_i_1:~ 9J_ j -----measurement-.--'i'hls-Tnaaequacy~Is--nowhere-more--evTaen.F than in the 5-9 . """ ) evaluation of external costs and benefits. These include the effects which even the most sophisticated analysis cannot quantify with ease. Yet they are as important, if not even more important, than the effects which are more easily quantified. This study includes qualitative discussions of some of the possible effects of resource use which must be considered by decision-makers in determining land use allocations. These discussions are inevitably inadequate because the effects cannot be measured in dollar terms and therefore it is not possible to indicate their magnitude relative to the effects discussed earlier. Also, it is not possible to predict all of the possible external effects of resource use. However, we have attempted to document what some of the possible non-quantifiable social, environmental and economic benefits and costs may be for each resource and we hope that this serves at a minimum to indicate the importance of these considerations. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 5-10 =,, :J PART 2. RESULTS I. PRECIOUS MET AIS The U.S. Bureau of Mines defines precious metals as the relatively scarce and valuable metals, such as gold, si 1 ver and platinum. By far the most important precious metal in the Basin is gold. The mining of gold represents the largest mining activity in the study area in terms of economic impact. Precious metals occur in two types of deposits: hard rock deposits where the metal is combined with other minerals and requires processing to extract the metal; and placer deposits where the precious metals have been mined by the natural forces of weathering and erosion and have been deposited, typically in sand and gravel. Because of the differing nature of precious metal deposits, the different methods employed in mining these deposits, and the economic uniqueness of these different mining activities; this section is broken down into placer and hardrock subsections. A. Current Placer Mining of Precious Metals Fairbanks grew up with gold placers, and they are still important, with 55 currently active placer mines in the Tanana Basin. These operations annually produce rough- ly 55,000 ounces of placer gold. I. Current Net Producers Benefits To determine current benefits of the placer precious metals industry to producers, it was necessary to determine the net profit after taxes of all the producers. Due to the lack of information on the profits of individual producers, it was necessary to construct a simple model of a typical placer operation that occurs in the Basin and examine the financial feasibility and profitability of the model at selected gold price levels. The model is described in detail in Appendix 5-A. 5-11 Using this model with an average world price of $400 per troy ounce of gold (or an average value of $10 per cubic yard), the model placer operation would be highly attractive compared to other investments. At the current $445 per troy ounce, the return would be even higher. Net · benefits for the model operation, after taxes, were roughly $80,000 annually. If this typical operation's financial outcome is used as an esti rna te of the average profit from the 55 active producing placer mines in the Basin, then the producers benefit can be estimated at roughly $4.4 million annually. The present value of this over a 20 year period would be roughly $34 million at a discount rate of 10%, if no major changes occurred in the industry. 2. Current Net Benefits to Consumer There are some net benefits to consumers from local refining and jewelry making which may lower the price of manufactured products somewhat for local consumers. If this is the case, there are consumer benefits. 3. Current Income Effects Current gold production in the Basin is approximately 55,000 ounces per year (Bundtzen, 1982). At the current price of about $400 per troy ounce, this equals $22 million in gross revenues. The income multiplier for the mining industry is 2.93 (Logsdon, et. al., 1977). This would mean that the industry is creating indirectly $42 million dollars in the income effects for a total income effect of $64 million. 4. Current Job Effects John Sims of the Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development reported at the 1982 Alaskan Placer Miners Conference, that the average placer mining opera t.i on emp.loyed 4. 5 people. For the Basin's 55 active placer opertions, it can be estimated that 248 people are employed for six months, so that direct employment effects were roughly 125 person-years total. (Employment by local r-efiners was not available, but may be in the range of 30 people). ,_,._ - - - - - - -----------------------------------------.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -"- 5-12 'rlle employment multiplier is estimated to be 1.~5 for the mining industry (Logsdon, et. al., 1Y17). The total direct and indirect employment effects of placer mining in the Basin is therefore about 140 person-years. 5. Current, Local Fiscal Effects Currently there are no local property taxes on placer mining activities on state lands, unpatented federal claims or patented claims outside organized boroughs. Also, few direct service costs are associated with placer operations and therefore the net fiscal effect is probably insignificant. 6. External Costs and Benefits External costs include the effects of stream siltation and erosion, soil disturbance, and scenic costs. External benefits include provision of access into new areas and the hunting and recreation benefits which flow from this. Also, there are lifestyle benefits. B. Potential Placer Mining Activity The current level of activity was assumed to continue into the future, with the addition of product.ion activity from the Livengood. The potential production of this mine is anticipated to be 10,000 to 1:5,000 ounces annually. The mine's reserves are estimated at 300,000 ounces ( T. Bund tzen, Personal Communication). Total production for the basin under this scenario would be 65,000 to 70,000 ounces annually for placer operations. Prices were assumed to be high enough at $400 per ounce to insure feasiblity of all operations. Also, this potential assumes no si gni fi cant change in energy prices, legislative environment, land status, taxes or technology. I. Potential Producer's Net Benefits If costs and revenues stay at current levels, producers annual net benefits will be approximately .:j)b.4 million (20% of estimated gross revenues of a 27 million average)l. The net present value of $:5.4 million over a 20 year period at a 10% discount rate is $46 million. !Assuming a ~0% return on gross revenues of $~0 million. (assuming $400 ounce). 5-13 2. Potential Net Benefits to Consumers Since gold is not significantly cheaper locally, there are few net benefits to local consumers from gold product ion in the Tanana Basin. Therefore local buyers do not· receive a significant benefit over imported gold. 3. Potential Income Effects Gross revenues from an annual production level of 67,500 ounces equals $27 million (assuming $400 per ounce gold prices). using the income multiplier for the mining industry of 2.93 (Logsdon, et. al., 1977), yields a total potential income effect of 79.1 million. 4. Potential Employment Effects The potential employment scenario assumes 55 operations employing 4. 5 people on the average, plus 100 jobs created from the LJV mine. -Therefore, the total potential direct employment is 348. Using the mining industry employment multiplier of 1.25, the total employment effects from this potential placer gold production activity scenario is about 434 on a seasonal basis, or about 217 person-years. 5. Potential Local Fiscal Effects Currently there are no local property taxes on placer mining equipment or on mining claims located on state lands, unpatented federal claims, or patented claims outside organized boroughs. With the growth of cities in the Basin or the organization of currently "unorganized boroughs", potential property taxes may be introduced, but no fiscal effects are presently foreseen. 6. Potential External Costs and Benefits External costs include the effects of stream siltation, erosion, soil disturbance and scenic costs. External benefits include provision of access into new areas and the hunting and other recreation benefits that flow from this. There are also, lifestyle benefits. 5·14 C. Bardrock Mining of Precious Metals I. Current Hardrock Mining Activity The principal hardrock gold mine in the Basin is the Grant Mine on Ester Dome, which produced about 1000 ounces in 1981. There are, however, many benefits from the exploration and the development activities occurring at sever a 1 sites. The economic si gni fi cance of these explorations and development ac ti viti es is included under Exploration and Development (Section VI). 2. Potential Hard Rock Mine Model The model presented here assumes that the Grant Mine is producing, and that there is a small amount of precious metal by-products from other non-precious hardrock mining activity. per day (Eakins, 330 days a yearly The Grant Mine with an average et. al., 1982). annually. Twenty could process 100 tons of ore grade of .45 ounces/ton gold Such an operation could run for five people would be employed on basis. a. Potential producer's net benefits. average grade of gold production would set annual Processing 100 tons of ore per day with an 0.45 ounces/ton gold, would yield a daily of 45 ounces. A work year of 330 days production at roughly 15,000 ounces. Fifteen thousand ounces of gold per ounce yields yearly gross revenues of $6 Assuming a profit margin of 20%, net producer's from the Grant Mine operation would be $1.2 annually. at $400 million. benefits million Therefore, the total potential producers net benefits under this scenario would be $1.2 million annually. Their net present value over 20 years at a 10% discount rate would be $10.22 million. b. Potential consumer's net benefits. The benefits to consumers are difficult to determine. Any benefits would be due to savings in the price and quantity of gold available in-state as opposed to outside. 5-15 c. Potential net income effects. Potential gross revenues were estimated at $6.0 million annually. income multiplier of 2. 93 (Logsdon, et. total income effects from this potential million annually. d. Potential employment effects. for this scenario Using the mining al. , 1977), the activity is 17.6 Twenty-five people were assumed to be directly employed by this scenario. Multiplying this figure by the mining industry's employment multiplier of 1.25 (Logsdon, et. al., 1977), the total potential employment effects would be 31 people. These jobs would be year-around. e. Potential local fiscal impact. Si nee the Grant Mine may be patented at some future date, Borough property taxes could be levied against this mining activity, but the amount of the tax cannot be determined until the Borough completes an appraisal. 5-16 ~· Table 5-1 Estbnated Current and Potential Econoudc Effects Of Precious Metal Activity Producers Benefits Income Employment Types of (Millions Millions (Person-1 Mining $/Year $/Year Years Current Placer 4.4 64.0 140 Current Hard rock See Ex,2loration & Develo,2ment Section Current Total 4.4 64.0 140 Potential Placer 5.4 79.1 220 Potential Hard rock 1.2 17.6 30 ·· ·· ·· Potential Total 6.6 96.7 250 1 Rounded to nearest 10 person-years. 5-17 II. BASE METAlS The term base metals is usually applied to any of the more common and more chemically active metals, e.g., lead or copper. The non-precious metals which occur in the Tanana Basin include copper, zinc, antimony, tungsten, lead, tin and molybdenum. Base metals, like precious metals, generally occur in two types of deposits: placer and hardrock. Thus, like precious metals, the base metal discussion is divided into a placer subcategory and a hardrock subcategory. A. Placer Mining of Base Metals I. Current Placer Mining Activity -Base Metals Although base minerals occur in placer deposits in many areas of the Basin, their concentrations are not high enough to be conducive to economic exploitation at this time. Consequently, there are no exclusively base metal placer operations in the Basin. Some base metals, bowever, are produced as a by-product of gold placer operations. The best known by-products of placer gold production in the Basin are tin and tungsten. Currently, only one operation in the Tanana Basin has reported producing si gni fi cant levels of by-product base metals. This operation recovered tin (as cassiterite) as a by-product of gold mining in the Manley-Tofty area (Eakins, et. al., 1982). The total value of the recovered tin from this operation is estimated at less than $20,000 (FOB mine mouth). However, no detailed economic effects were calculated for this activity due to lack of information. 2. Potential Placer Mining Activity-Base Metals No large scale placer deposits of base metals with economic significance have been identified in the Tanana Basin. Future activity will probably continue to be by-products of precious metal placers. B. Hardrock Mining of Base Metals I. Current Hardrock Mining Activity Currently, there is no hardrock production activity associated with non-precious metals in the Tanana 5-18 Basin. There are, however, many prospects in various stages of development, such as Placid Oils underground sampling of the Kawalita Vein System on Cleary Hill or the Yellow Pup lode development on Gilmore Dome. Because these operations are in the exploration stage, their economic significance is included under the Exploration and Development section. 2. Potential Hard Rock Mining of Base Metals There are many problems associ a ted with forecasting hard rock l;>ase metal mining activity. First, there is the long lead time associ a ted with much of the activity. After an exploration program has indicated that a deposit shows promise of being economic, the development of a large open pit mine may take from five to eight years from the time a feasibility study is initiated to the beginning of production. An underground mine may take one to two years longer, depending on the extent of underground excavation required to expose the productive ore body. Secondly, the decision to invest is based on the projected price of the product and production costs over the estimated duration of the mining operation. However, fu tnre mineral prices are contingent not only on supply and demand, but also on the world economy and the degree to which free market competition is 1i mi ted (for example, by long term contracts between miners and consumers) and on national policy (Louis Berger & Assoc., 1982). a. Mine models Given these realities, base metal mining potential was not assessed in the form of formal forecasts. Instead, a scenario was developed in an effort to provide some possible order-of-magnitude esti rna tes of the economic con tri but ions of base metal mining to the Tanana Basin. The scenario was based on the assumption that four mines will be in production. The mines were based on models presented in the Interior Transportation Study, Transportation Demand Forecasts (Louis Berger & Assoc. , 1982) and on mine development ac ti vi ty currently taking place in the Basin. The mines were assumed to be shipping concentrate out of the region for smelting and refining. The reader should bear in mind that revenue figures would more than triple if in-state smeltirig and refining were to 5-19 occur. For example, a ton of 3% copper ore is worth $42.60; a ton of pure copper concentrate is worth $482.80; a ton of smelted copper is worth $1,349 and a ton of refined copper is worth $1,430 per ton. 1 The four mines were the Dry Creek prospect, the Delta Belt prospect, the Gilmore Dome prospect and a prospect on Cleary Hill (See Figure 5-l). The mine models for the De 1 ta Belt and Dry Creek operations were adopted directly from the Interior Transportation Study (ITS), the model used for the other two operations was a tungsten mine model, also presented in the ITS. A detailed description of these modes is presented in Appendix 5-C, but a brief synopsis appears in Table 5-l. 1 Calculated from mineral prices presented in Engineering and Mining Journal, Vol. 183 No. l 0, 1982. 5-20 Table 5-1 SuiDDlary of Mine Model Assum.ptions Concentrate Produced Mine Name Tons Per Day Annually Dry Creek 1,200 tpd. 68,000 tons Delta Belt 5 '000 tpd. 448,000 tons Cleary Hill 600 tpd. 36,000 tons Gilmore Dome 600 tpd. 6,540 tons tpd = tons per day Source: Louis Berger and Associates, Interior Transportation Study, 1982 5-21 Minerals Found Lead, zinc, silver, gold Copper, zinc, lead, silver Lead, zinc, gold, silver Tungsten The reader should be aware that the probability of these mines producing within the near future is not known. Therefore, the following estimates should be viewed as order-of-magnitude figures only and not as absolute measures. To estimate potential assumert that the model mines used produced a single likely mineral. product would be complemented by an 1. Producers benefits economic effects, it was in this assessment each In actuality, the main array of by~products. If it is assumed that a 5% return on gross revenues is realized from these operations (see Table 5-2), then the potential producers net benefits would be $12 million. The net present value over a 20 year period with a 10% discount rate is $102 million. Table 5-2 Estim.ated Annual Revenue of Potential Base Metal Mines World Price Possible Concentrate Price Concentrate Annual Model tons perton1 Adjuster2 Revenues (millions) Dry Creek 68,000 Lead X 500 X .34 = $ 11.6 Delta Belt 448,000 Copper x 1420 X .34 = 216.0 Cleary Hill 36,000 Lead/ X 500 X .34 = 6.1 zinc/gold/ silver Gilmore Dome 36,000 Tungs X 200 X 1 = 7.2 240.9 All prices were September 1982 quotes from the Engineering and Mining Journal. The price ~oncentrate adjuster for both copper and lead is based on the ratio of copper concentrate to world prices which is 0.34. Tungsten concentrate was assumed to be twice the current price of 65% minimum, tungsten ore. 5-22 ~- r [ [ [ [ [ ___ _ ~_; 2. Consumer benefits Loca 1 consumers are unl i k:el y to benefit directly in terms of measureably lower prices for lead, zinc, copper, e'tc. However, they are 1 i kel y to benefit somewhat if the world price is affected by the supply from the Tanana Basin. 3. Income effects Given possible annual revenues of $240 million, and using the mining income multiplier of 2.93 (Logsdon, et. al. 1977), the potential income effect of base metal mining in the Basin would be over $700 million per year. 4. Employment effects From the models (Appendix 5C), direct employment from this level of activity would be 714 people. Using an employment multiplier of 1. 25 for the mining industry (Logsdon et. al. 1977) the total employment effects would be in the range of 900 people). 5. Fiscal effects No information is available on potential fiscal effects. 6. External benefits and costs Some of the potential negative effects include a decrease in environmental quality and depletion of a non-renewable resource. 5-23 ( Table 5-3 Estbnated Current and Potential Economic Effects Of Base Metal Mining Current Activity Potential Activity Producers Benefits (Millions $/year) Income (Millions $/year) Employment (Person· Years) Current activity is a by-product of Placer Operations. Economic effects not calculated. 12.0 700.0 900 Dry Creek, Delta Belt, Cleary Hill and Gilmore Dome assumed to be in production. 5-24 III. INDUSTRIAL AND STRUCTURAL MATERIALS A. Current Industrial and Structural Materials Activity Currently, there are seven sand and gravel operators in the Tanana Basin, working from private and state gravel pits. In 1981 one mill ion tons of sand and gravel were mined for landfill, construction and road building projects in the Bas in ( Bundtzen, et. al. 198 2). In addition, the Browns Hill basalt quarry supplied the local area with about 340,000 cubic yards of high quality rip rap, D-1 road metal (i.e., gravel), ballast material and crushed fill. There were also 25 personal use permits issued for 100 cubic yards of gravel each. Tailings are also an important by-product of gold placer mining. I. Current Net Producers Benefits From interviews with local producers, gross revenue for the industry was estimated to be $18.5 million. If it is assumed that industry profits amount to about 5 percent of gross revenue, then current net producer's benefits are about $925,000 per year. The net present value ( NPV) of $9 25,000 over a 20 year period, given a discount rate of 10%, is $7.9 million dollars. 2. Current Net Consumer Benefits If no sand or gravel were available within the Basin, gravel would probably be imputed by rail. The difference in cost was not available, but it probably represents substantial savings for Basin residents to have a local supply of this important commodity. Personal use gravel permits resulted in $12,500 worth of consumer benefits, assuming that each of the 25 people who received permits acquired 100 cubic yards of gravel worth $10 per cubic yard. (DNR, 1982.) This amount does not take into account the opportunity cost of the labor involved. 3. Current Income Effects Gross revenues for the industry were estimated at $18.5 million dollars. If it is assumed that the construction income multiplier of 2.34 applies to this industry (Logsdon, et. al. 1977), then the indirect income effects would amount to about $25 million dollars for a -~ -----------total-income--e-ffect-O-f-$4-3-mil-l-ion--dol-lar-s-.----------------------------------- 5-25 4. Current Employment Effects From information collected from industry representatives, the employment in the industry was estimated at 198 people for an average of seven mo~ths per year, or a total of 116 person-years. Using the employment multiplier for the construction industry of 3.53 (Logsdon, et. al., 1977), the total direct and indirect employment effects are roughly 410 people for the Basin's sand and gravel industry. 5. Current Local Fiscal Effects Miners located within organized boroughs and/or towns will be liable for real property taxes on buildings and patented claims as well as personal property. They may also have an effect on service costs, such as road maintenance. However, information was not available on the exact fiscal effects. 6. Current External Costs and Benefits Gravel pits take a long time to revegetate. Consequently, erosion and other problems are commonly associated with the area, as well as a decrease in the scenic quality of the vicinity. Many abandoned gravel pits have been transformed into mini-recreation areas for swimming, fishing and sport shooting. ADF&G has stocked fish in many of the lakes that form in the gravel pits. These are positive benefits. B. Potential Industrial and Structural Materials Activity Predicting potential activity in the sand, gravel and stone sector is an uncertain exercise at best. The major factors which would greatly affect production activity beyond current levels include: a. The total length and standard of roads to be built in the Basin. b. The possible extension of the Alaska Railroad to Delta, the Canadian border, or to the Red Dog or Bornite area in the Northwest. ·"". ----------------~----e-.-The--pes-s-i-b-le-eens-t-r-uet-i-en-ef--t-he-prepesed--g-a-s----------- ~ pipeline. 5-26 Because of the uncertainty of these endeavors happening in the near future, a conservative scenario is presented which is the continuation of the current production levels. If one or more of the above projects are undertaken, the economic impact from the sand, gravel and stone industry would easily double and would probably triple or quadruple. 5-27 l IV.COALANDPEAT Coal from the major fields in the Tanana Basin (i.e. the Nenana field and the Jarvis Creek field) is of a subbi- tuminous rank which places its heat content in BTU's per pound between 8,300 BTU's and 13,000 BTU's. Proven reserves and indicated resources from the Nenana coal field are estimated to be 861.6 million and 6 billion tons respectively. Jarvis Creek's proven reserves and indicated resources are estimated to be 300,000 and 76 million tons respectively (Bundtzen, et al., 1982). A. Current Coal Activity The Usibelli Coal Mine near Healy is currently the only active coal mine in the state. The mine annually pro- duces 800,000 tons of subbi tumi nous coal from the Nenana coal field. Most of the coal is consumed by power plants. However, a small quantity (roughly 20,000 tons) is annually consumed for direct space heating needs. All of the current production is consumed in the Tanana Basin. Upon completion of an export facility at Seward, the Usibelli operation will begin to export coal under a 10- year, 8-million-ton contract with Sun Eel, a Korean based firm. Completion is estimated to be sometime within the next two years, at which time the production at Healy is expected to double to 1. 6 mi 11 ion tons to meet an export schedule of 800,000 tons annually. (MIRL, 1982) 1. Producers Net Benefits Coal is currently selling for about $22 per ton to power plants with longterm contracts. This puts Usi- belli 's gross revenues in the range of $17.5 million. Usi- belli Coal Mine profits were estimated at 5% of gross reve- nues, based on the profits of mines of simi 1 ar size as 1 i sted in Standard and Poor's Index. This puts pro- ducer's net benefits from coal production in the Basin at about $875,000 annually. If it is assumed that Usibelli's contract for the export of coal is for roughly the same price per ton as domestic coal contracts, then when ship- ment commences, earnings can be expected to double to $1.75 million. 2. Consumers Net Benefit Consumers save in two ways from the use of coal: a) in power generation and b) in space heating costs. a) Power generation Currently, roughly 75% of the Basin's electric .............. __ pow.e_r. _i_s __ ge.n_e.r_a.t_e_g _ _hy-_~_p_a_L_ ___ _For._Jl.OWBJ:._ge_n_ex.Ji_ti_Qll_. _i_n __ t.h.e ___ ---·-_ 5-28 -, Basin, oil would be the most likely alternative to eoal. Power utilities, which are the largest consumers of coal, use roughly 125 gallons of oil to generate one MWH compared to roughly 0.8 tons of coal to generate one MWH. Average price contracts are roughly 80~ per gallon for fuel oil and $22 per ton for coal. These figures work out to 12.5~ per KWH for fuel oi 1 and 2. 2~ per KWH for coal (Community Research Center, FNSB, 1981). For civilian power genera- tion faci 1 i ties, switching to oi 1 would require the con- sumption of 46.9 million gallons of fuel oil at an added cost of $30.9 million dollars (Appendix 5-D). This amount is 11 saved 11 by burning coal. Adding military power plants at Ft. Wain- wright, Eielson A.F.B. and Clear Early Warning Missile Station, and the University of Alaska's physical plant (which are co a 1-fi red fac i 1i ties) , the consumers benefit from burning coal as opposed to oil for power generation more than triples to $80.3 million (Appendix 5-D). The net present value of this figure over a twenty year period at a 10% discount rate is $684 million. b) Space heating Approximately 20,000 tons of coal (3% of total production) are used for space heating in the Basin (Louis Berger and Associates, 1982). If delivered fuelwood were substituted for coal in space heating applications, consum- ers would pay an additional $2.1 million annually for an equivalent amount of heat (see Appendix 5-E). The net present value of this over twenty years at a 10% discount rate is equal to $17.9 million. 3. Current Income Effects The Usibelli Mine's gross revenues for 1981 amounted to about $17.5 million dollars. Using an income multiplier for the mining industry in Alaska of 2.93 (Logs- don, et. al., 1977), the total income effects are roughly $51.3 million dollars. 4. Current Job effects At present, the Usibelli Coal Mine employs 100 people. The employment multiplier for the mining industry in Alaska is estimated to be 1.25 (Logsdon, et. al., 1977). Total employment effects in the Usibelli operation then are approximately 125 people. ~ ~ _ ~ __ ~ _ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ _s_._Eis~c_al Eff,....e""c.._..t~s ________________ _ No information was available concerning fiscal effects. 5-29 6. External Benefits and Costs The Usibelli Mine is a strip mine. This type of activity contributes to soil erosion and scenic degradation. However, Usibelli is attempting to revegetate the site and it is of ten mentioned that Dall sheep are common in the area despite the level of activity. Depletion of a non-renewable resource is also a cost. Import substitution is a major positive external effect. B. Potential Coal Activity Future coa 1 production scenarios are pri mari 1 y dependent on the supply and demand for coal and the financial feasibility of the expansion of coal mining activity. As di cussed earlier, there are two coal fields in the Tanana Basin: the Nenana field and the Jarvis Creek field. The growth of the domestic market is contingent on a number of factors including: 1) per capita power consumption trends; 2) grid expansion of electric utilities using coal-fired power generation facilities; 3) population growth and 4) the cost of coal relative to suitable alternatives. Fairbanks North Star Borough, the per capita residential power consumption from 1979 to 1981 decreased at an annual rate of 4.6% (FNSB Community Research Center, 1982). In the It is not known whether any of the uti 1 i ties operating coal-fired generators are planning an expansion of service area at this time. With lands becoming available through disposal programs in rural areas, it is likely that the grids of the electric utilities will eventually expand to cover a larger market area as these regions become economically feasible to serve. The population of the · area served by the coal fired utilities is expected to grow in the Basin at 2.7% annually through the year 2000, when the population is forecasted to be 95,000 (DNR, DRD, 1982). Assuming that the current per capita coal consumption of 14.5 tons remains constant and also that the ~ajority of the increases in gross power demand in the coal-fired uti 1 i ty service area are met by increases in coal consumption, the forecasted consumption will be roughly 1.4 million tons by : << << ~ ~ <. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ure~year~!3eee.~ · ~~.~~·~~·~~~~~~ The costs of coal relative to other energy sources plays an important role in the local consumption of 5-30 _, coal. Currently, power generated by coal fired utilities cost $. 02 per KWH to produce as compared to oi 1-fi red plants which produce power at a cost of 12. 5i1 per KWH (Community Research Center, 1982). Therefore, coal remains very attractive. Factors which could have a significant impact on ttle attractiveness of coal for both power generation and space heating include: 1) the cost of Susi tna Hydropower; and 2) the possi bi 1 i ty of inexpensive gas from the North Slope for space heating and power generation in the Fair- banks region. If these two developments either do not occur or are significantly cheaper than current coal-generated elec- tric power, then it can be concluded that a modest growth in domestic coal consumption can be expected. For space heating, the demand for inexpensive co a 1 could increase due to both high prices for oi 1 and electric heat and the growing demand for a limited supply of fuel wood close to Fairbanks. The opera tor of the Coal Bunker contends that this market is growing 5% annually. However, if a 11 fuel wood users switched to coal, current production would be increased by an almost insignificant 2% (since so much of ttle demand is for power generation) (See Appendix 5F). Therefore space heating is not expected to be a major factor in future production. Commercial use of coal for space heating is not expected to grow much within the near future for several reasons. First, the cost advantage of coal over al terna- tives is still not great enough to compensate for the high i ni ti al costs and maintenance costs of coal heating sys- tems. Secondly, it is necessary to have a large space to heat and there are not many large structures being built in the Basin and the large structures being built now and in the future will be increasingly energy efficient. Thirdly, ttle widely varying qua 1i ty of coal presents problems for equipment. In summary, the largest consumers of coal within the state is expected to be power plants. Space heating is not expected to require more than about 6% of total coal production (currently, space heating uses 4%). Unless Susitna Power or North Slope gas are more attractive sources of power, then coal consumption is expected to in- crease. The range for the increase is likely to be some- where between the current level of demand of 800,000 tons and the per capita forecasted demand of 1.4 million tons. ~~-----~-~~~~~~ Foreign demand has the greatest potential for ex- panding the coal production in the Basin. The Usibelli Coal Mine currently has an 8-million-ton, ten-year contract 5-31 with Sun Eel, a Korean-based firm, and is also in the pro- cess of negotiating a contract with another foreign firm for an unspecified quantity. Export of the Sun Eel coal is not expected to begin until the coal export facility that is currently under construction in Seward is completed. With the current world's oil reserves expected to diminish early in the 21st century some believe that the world wi 11 experience another world energy crisis between the years 1985 to 1995. Diamond Alaska and Placer-Amex (Beluga Coal Company) are currently proceeding with plans to develop the Beluga Coal field. Diamond Alaska believes that an export market as large as 13 million tons per year could be developed. Placer-Amex is projecting an annual production of 10 million tons for export as early as 1990. Although these developments are outside the Tanana Basin, the fact that these companies are actually investing for the purposes of exporting millions of tons of co a 1 (as early as 1990) means that they seriously believe that such foreign markets will be found. With such development it is likely that the Usibelli Mine will capture part of the expanded foreign markets. In addition to supply and demand, financial feasibility will play a major role in determining future production. The Usi belli Mine is currently expanding its production. This expansion of production is a concerted effort to use up idle capacity. Estimates from a Usibelli mining engineer and from the Mineral Industry Research Lab ( MIRL) p 1 ace the current annual capacity of the Usi be 11 i operation at 2.0 to 2.2 million tons per year. Current production of 800,000 tons per year utilizes 36% of this capacity. The Sun Ee 1 contract wi 11 increase utili za ti on to almost 75% of capacity. If and when production reaches capacity, many decisi6ns will have to be made by Usibelli as to the path the company is to follow. The decision to expand or not, and if so, then by how much, will have the greatest impact on coal production in the Basin. Some of the factors which will probably enter into the decision process include interest rates, cash reserves, longterm contract possibili- ties, etc. Jarvis Creek's potential will also rest on such factors as hom~ space heating needs and possible c6nstruc- tion of a coal-fired power plant in the area. The minimum size of coal-fired plants is about 1000 KW (Frank Abegg, MUS, Fairbanks) and this is probably larger than what is currently needed. However, as agriculture, settlement and mining develop the upper Tanana, the ciemand for power will c;----------rrrcr_e_a~s-i-rrg-1-y~m-a-ke~a-c-o-a-l--=-f-J--r-e-d----puWBT----p-l-a-n-t-more~a-t-t-ra-ct-J-ve-,--.-------- ~ provided that the expense of tra nsmi ssi on lines is not pro hi bi ti ve. 5-32 '-' THE SCENARIOS LowProduction -Current production level including the Sun Eel contrllct (1.6 million tons/year total). No production at ,Jarvis Creek. MediumProduction -Usibelli production at capacity of 2.2 million tons/year. Jarvis Creek producing 30,000 tonsjyear. High Production -Doubling current capacity to 4. 5 mi 11 ion. tons/year. Jarvis Creek producing 50,000 tonsjyear. a. Potential net benefit to local producers Low Scenario -Operating at 75% of capacity is not as profitable as operating at 100% capacity. The profit margin was assumed to be equal to the average value of the profit margins of coal mining companies of similar size which are listed in Standard and Poors Industrial Index (average net profit 5% as a percentage of gross revenue). This figure when applied to the low scenario, yielded a producers benefit of roughly $1.75 million dollars. Medium Scenario -Operating at 100% capacity was assumed to improve the profit margin by 1% to 6%. Under this scenario $2.8 million dollars is an approximate value for producers surplus. High Scenario -Operating at 200% of current capacity would, at 6% profit margin (as a percentage of gross revenue) yield a profit $5.7 million dollars. b. Potential net benefits to consum.ers Because the total quantity of coal on the domestic market is not expected to change si gni fi cantl y, regardless of the scenario, the price of coa 1 wi 11 most likely increase at a real rate of about 2% per year (the average price i nceases over the last several years). The consumer savings resulting from burning coal compared to alternative energy sources is expected to increase in the coming years, making coal increasingly attractive. However, if the Susitna Dam is constructed or if gas is piped down from the North Slope to Fa i rhanks, the consumers net benefit from the use of coal could decrease. 5-33 c. lncom.e effects Low Scenario -Gross revenues of $35.2 mi 11 ion would result in an income effect of roughly $103 million. Medium Scenario Gross revenues of $48 million would result in an income effect of roughly $142 mi Ilion. High Scenario -Gross revenues of $95 mi 11 ion would result in an income effect of roughly $278 million. d. Ednploym.ent effects Low Scenario 25 people indirectly. 100 people employed directly, Medium Scenario 125 people employed directly, about 30 people employed indirectly. HighScenario -200 people employed directly, 50 people employed indirectly. e. Externalities Large amounts of land would be strip mined, causing possible erosion and disruption of scenic beauty. Import substitution is a positive externality. Table 5-4 Current and Potential Econom.ic Effects from. Coal Mining Producers Consumers Income 1 Employment Benefits Benefits Effects Effects (Millions (Millions (Millions (Person $/year) $/year) $/year) Years) Current Activity 0.9 83.2 51. 125 Potential Activity Low Scenario 1.8 N.A. 103. 125 High Scenario 5.9 N.A. 278. 250 N.A. = Not Available ~:-----------1Rounaea--to nearest $~-mrrn on 5-34 r-. I [ [ C. Current Peat Activity at roughly frozen and arrived at Peat resources in the Basin are estimated 24 billion cubic yards, however, much of this is none is considered fuel grade. This figure was from estimates of non-fuel grade peat acreages Peat Resource Map of Alaska, (Rawlinson and Hardy, from tlle 1982). Peat is currently being mined commercially by five firms in the Tanana Basin. The largest of these producers mines an estimated 5,000 cubic yards annually. From inter- views with 1 ocal producers, the entire industry's output was estimated at 10,000 cubic yards. Most of this peat is used for landscaping purposes, but a small quantity is used for agricultural and horticultural purposes. None of the peat is used for fuel. I. Producers Benefits Peat is currently selling yard. Thus revenues are in the range peat industry has a 5% profit margin, peat producers would be about $6,000. 2. Consumers Net Benefits for $12 per cubic of $120,000. If the then net benefits to Peat produced locally sells for $12 per cubic yard. Since there is no similar substitute it must be com- pared with imported peat. About 10,000 cubic yards of peat are consumed annually. Assuming that consumers would buy an equal amount of imported peat if a local supply did not exist, they would have to pay $400,000 (imported peat, sells for about $40 per cubic yard). Thus, consumers are saving about $280,000 through t h use of loca 11 y produced peat. 3. Income Effects For the peat industry, gross revenues for 1981 amounted to about $120, 000. If the mining income multi- plier is applied, the peat industry's total income effect is about $351,600. 4. Employment Effects The peat industry currently employs six people seasonally. If the mining employment multiplier is applied to the peat industry, it is expected that 8 seasonal jobs result from the existence of the peat industry, or about 3 person-years. 5-35 V. OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION Oil and gas extraction covers three phases; exvlo r-ation, development and pruducti on. All three are treated in this chapter. Exploration was not separated out as in the preceding chapters, because it is readily identifiable and solely related to oil and gas activities. A. Current OU and Gas Activity As of August lB82, an oil and gas lease has been in effect for part of a B41, OUO acre tract of ::;tate land west of Nenana. Prior to this lease, the only other related activity in the basin was a well drilled in 1961 {in the vicinity of the present lease area) which was dry. 1. Current Net Producers Benefits Currently, the annual rent for all tracts leased in Oil and Gas Lease Sale No. ~7, is $105,000. There are no positive cashflows to offset this liability, but tax incentives do offset this amount. 2. Current Net Consumer Benefits Since there is currently no production there are no current benefits to consumers. 3. Current State Net Benefits The net benefit to the state can be calculated as the monies from the lease bonuses and rental fees minus the cost associated in the leasing of the land. The range of cash bonuses for Sale No. ~7 was between $5 and $:30 per acre. Yearly rental rates are $1 per acre the first year rising to a maximum of $3.00 in the fifth year. Roughly 165,000 acres in 36 tracts were leased ( DMEM, 1982). Si nee bonuses only accrue if production ensues, income to the state from rental fees is estimated at $165,000 for this year. Tile cost of state administration is not known. 5-36 -, -~ B. Potential OU and Gas Activity l!rojectin& the potential impacts of oil u.nd gas developtnent in the basin is an uncertain <:'Xercise si.nct~ tlll~ location, type and magnitude of potential devel,)prnent activity cannot be determined precisely. Therefore, it is necessary to .::;peculate about the most likely course of events, based on available information concernin5 the geology of the area and other factors tl1a t may i nf 1 ue nee future development. The potential oil and gas related economic activity in tne Tanana Basin is indicated by the following: 1) four firms entered into leases with the State in Lease Sale ~71; and 2) petroleum and economic geologists are of the opinion that there is a low probability of commercial quantities of oil or gas in the Tanana Hasin. It seems likely that at least three shallow exploratory wells will be drilled in the Basin over the course of several years. The targeted petroleum bearing structures are of medium depth and an average well could be completed within ~0 days I. Potential Benefits Due to the many unknowns, it is not possible to estimate benefits and costs of oil and gas at this time. It should be noted that there is potential, but more exploration is required before reasonable forecasts can be made. 2. Potential Income Effects Roughly $6 million dollars can be expected to be expended for these three drilling operations. If the i ncor1e multiplier for the oi 1 and gas i ndu:stry of 2. 87 is used (Logsdon, et. al., l!::J77) then the expected income effects are estimated to be $17.2 million dollars (DMJ:<.:M, 1982.) 3. Potential Employment Effects Three exploration wells are each expected to employ 50 people for a four month period. Total direct employment would be 600 person-month:-:; or roughly 5U man-years. lBrock, Burglin, Shell & Arco leased ~6 tracts in the fall of 1982. 5-37 Logsdon, et. al., ( lW/7) set the oil and gas industries employment multiplier at 1.1~. If this is applied to the direct e1nployment figures, then the expected total employment effects should be in the range of HO man years. These employment ef fee ts have an ex pee ted 1 i fe of from one to three years. include: 4. Potential Local Fiscal Effects Unknown 5. Potential External Costs and Benefits Some of the likely external costs and benefits non-locals hired for field crews (-) some local hiring for field crews (+) trails, access (+, -) abandoned camps (-) information on geology and heat flows of the region from drilling activity (+) destruction of habitat (-) creation of habitat (+) 5-38 VI. EXPLORATION r~xplora ti on activity has been placed in a separate section because these types of activities are nut involved in production, and so are unique in that there are no net benef 1 ts to producers or consumers. Also exvlora ti on may be for several kinds of minerals at once. Most o£ the data used in this section came from the section on exploration in tlle eastern interior developed in Alaska Mineral Resources 1~~1-1~~~, by the UGGS staff. Only those ac ti viti es within the Basin were included. A detailed description of current exploration and development activity is found in Chapter 4. A. Current Exploration Activity The dollar value spent on exploration in the Tanana Basin (Eastern Interior) represents the highest for any region in the s.ta te (excluding oi 1 and gas). Most of tile current activity is concentrated in the Yukon/Tanana Uplands and the Alaska Range. The relative share of expenditures by commodity type is as follow for the Tanana Hasin: Precious metals --placer 43%, lode 16%; base metals 39%; coal and peat ~%. The total amount spent in l9Hl was estimated at 13.5 million. 1. Current Producers Net Benefits As there is no current production from these exploration activities, the net benefits to producers can be described as negative (the cost of exploration). However, the i hforma tion gathered as a result of these activities is assumed to be of at least an equivalent future value to potential producers, on the average. Consequently the net benefit is considered positive but not quanti tiable. 2. Current Consumers Net Benefits Since there is no production, there are no direct benefits to consumers. 5-39 u J .. _j L .1 JJ ' i TANANA BASIN AREA a SCALE IN MILES ll \2 2·1 .J F;IGURE 5.1 Areas of Active Exploration in the Tanana Basin I . I I I ' .J .J ~, l l. ··:.. 3. Current Net Benefits to the State The state exploration permits. monitorin~ exploration assumed to be small. 4. Income Effects receives The state activity. fees also The from miners incurs costs net effects for for are If expenditures are treated as revenues then the total income effects are estimated to be $lj.5 million direct effects and $~~.4 million indirect, using the mining income multiplier of ~-~~. 5. Employment Effects Bundtzen, et. al. (l~M~) estimated employment for the 11 B;astern Interior" to be above 552 on exploration. A rough estimate of employment within the Basin is 500. An estimated 75% of this is assumed to be seasonal (6 months). Thus there are about ~lU person-years of direct employment and MO indirect jobs, for a total of ~~U person-years of employment due to exploration in the Basin. 6. External Costs and Benefits The same as for oi 1 and gas exploration (l:>ee l:>ection V). B. Potential Exploration Activity MaJor new mineral finds (e.g. massive sulfides in the Fairbanks area) could spur large exploration expenditures, but for the purposes of this analysis, a similar level to the current activity was assumed for the p6tential scenario. l:>ee current exploration activity for potential economic effects. !Adjusted from Bundtzen, et. al., (1~82) which indicated tlla t employment for tt1e 11 Eastern Interior 11 was about 5b2 in exp,ilora tion. A rough estimate of employment within the Tanana Hasin is bUU. 5-41 ~· "" I VII. NONMETALLIC MINERAL ACTIVITY A. Current Non10etalllc Minerals Activity There currently acti~ity in the Basin. is no nonmetallic B. Potential NoniDetallic Minerals Activity production Currently agricultural 6rade limestone is being examined in the Canwell Glacier area for use at Big Uelta. llowever, the potential benefits of this activity are unknown at the current time. VIII. SUMMARY Currently, precious metals, industrial and structural materials, coal and exploration activities have the largest economic i rnpact. These acti viti es generate an estimated $ti million in benefits to producers, $1b5 million in income and over 800 jobs (out of an estimated 22,000 person-years of employment available in the Basin (UNH., UH.D, l!j~2) J. Gold generates most of the producers bene£ its and the larc?;est income ef feet, while exploration may generate the most employment. (See Table 5-4). The present value of these activities is shown in Table 5-5. This table is in tended to be used to compare the economic effects of the different resources. Unfortunately, much of the information necessary to complete Table 5-5 was not available. This table includes some general statements on possible external (or nonquant if iable) benefits and costs which should also be kept in mind when makin~ comparisons. Table 5-o presents a summary of the estimated potential effects of mining. These estimates are not intended to be used as absolute measures. They are estimates intended to show the potential of the mining industry in the next 20 years. These estimates do indicate that the principal expected change is the addition of major base metal mining to the gold, sand and gravel and coal activities which nave been the basis of the indu~try for the last several decades. Base metals could become the most important commodity in terms of econorni c impact, \considerably increasing producers benefits, income and employment. Gold, sand and 6ravel and coal also nave considerable potential for expansion. ---~­,---------------- 5-42 ..., -~ \ ~ .., ~ Table 5-5 SuDllllary of Current Econoulic Effects of Mining in the Tanana Basin Producers Mining Benefits Income Employment Activity by (Millions (Millions (Person- Commodity $/year) $/year) Years) Precious Metals 4.4 64.0 140 Industrial and Structural Commodities o.~ 43.0 410 Coal 0.9 51.3 145 Exploration and Development Activities 39.4 390 ------Total o.2 1~7.7 1,065.0 5-43 .1 L J t . ~ .J ;_,•J 1 TABLE 5-6 ESTIMATED CURRENT ECONOMIC. EFFECTS OF MINING IN THE TAN ANA BASIN NET BENEFITS NET VALUE DIRECT & DIRECT& FISCAL EXTERNAL NET RETURN PER INDIRECT INDIRECT EFFECTS COSTS TO PRODUCERS TO CONSUMERS TO THE STATE TOTAL ACRE INCOME EMPLOYMENT ON LOCAL AND I EFFECTS EFFECTS GOVERNMENTS BENEFITS I (S MILLIONS) (±) I PRESENT PRESENT PRESENT PRESENT MILLIOj'IS VALUE(a) MILLIONS VALUE (+) VALUE VALUE MILLIONS PERSON (+) $/YEAR OVER20 YRS $/YEAR OVER20YRS $/YEAR OVER 20 YRS $/YEAR OVER20YRS $/ACRE $/YEAR YEARS $/YEAR Precious Metals 4.4 37.5 N.S. N.S. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 64.0 140 N.S. See text Industrial and Structural Materials 0.9 8.0 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 43.0 410 N.A. See text Coal 0.9 7.6 83.2 676 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 51.3 125 N.A. See text Exploration and Development NOT APPLICABLE I I NOT ArLICABLE N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 39.4 390 N.A. See text TOTAL 6.2 i 53.1 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 197.7 1065 N.A. N.S. = Not significant. N.A. = Not available. (a) Discounted at 10%. value assumes current production remains constant. But as explained in the text. current production is expected to increase lor all commodities. Therefore. this is only a minimum eslirnale (see Potential Benefits). ~ \ Table 5-7 Sum.JD.ary of Potential EconoJD.ic Effects of Mining in the Tanana Basin Mining Activity by Commodity Producers Benefits (Millions $/year) Income (Millions $/year) Emplo~ent (Person-a Years) Precious Metals Placer l:fardrock Total Base Metals Industrial and Structural Materialsb Coal Ivledium Scenario Total 6.4 1.6 ~.0 1~.0 0.9 4.9 aRounded to nearest 10 person-years. 94. 19. 11~. 700 4J 142 bcurrent effects are shown as a minimum estimate. CRounded to nearest $1 million. dRounded to nearest lOU person-years. 5-45 450 900 145 1!55 ' ' j J J ' J J j "I 1 j l j J '1\ l J ~ i ..1 '1 J j .i 1 l J Chapter& Management Recommendations -------------- J '·"!'- I. STATEWIDEGOALSANDTHEIRIMPLICATIONSFORMINE~LS MANAGEMENT IN THE TANANA BASIN A. Introduction 'Ihe preceding chapters describe existing arrl expectErl production of minerals and the likely economic benefits of mineral production. 'lhese analyses, together with the goals for minerals laid out in the FY83 Statewide Natural Resources Plan, form the foundation for the minerals management recommendations that follow. B. Relationship of Statewide Mineral Goals to the Tanana Basin 'Ihe Statewide Natural Resurces Plan is the broadest of the plans developed by the Department of Natural Resources. It provides the context for the area plans, such as the Tanana Area Plan, by setting forth goals and objectives for each resource. 'Ihe Statewide Plan is used in formulating ADNR' s budget and setting inventory arrl planning priorities. 1. Statewide Goal: Economic Development Develop mineral and energy industries which will provide stable and diverse job opportunities, increase per capita income, increase local tax revenues and stimulate growth -qf the industry. Historically, the Tanana Basin has been a very productive ITUnHlg area in the state. Today, mining remains a very important industry, employing approximately 1065 people and generating an estimated $200 million in income. Because of the imp:>rtance of m1n1ng in the Tanana Basin in both the regional and the statewide economy, areas should remain open to mineral entry unless there is overwhelming evidence to irrlicate that an area should be closed. Areas which are currently producing large quantities of minerals should have minerals designated primary use. 6-1 2~ Statewide Goal: Mineral and Energy Supplies Develop coal and geothermal resources to contribute to the energy suwly of the u.s. and Alaska. Develop metallic and industrial mineral resources to contri- bute to the industrial needs of the u.s., particularly critical and strategic minerals. Much of the state larrl in the study area is known to have high or moderate potential for minerals. The Tanana Basin is currently pcoducing an estimated 55,000 ounces of gold, 1.6 million tons of coal arrl over one mill ion tons of sand and gravel each year. This represents a large percentage of total state production of each of these oonm:xHties. Because of the importance of the Tanana Basin in supplyin:J minerals and energy, designation of land for mineral use and leaving land open to mineral entry must be a high priority. 3. Statewide Goal: Revenue Base Establish a stable source of revenues to assist the state in meeting the public needs of people of Alaska in the decades following the decline of Prudhoe Bay :production. Through continued production arrl developnent of minerals, the Tanana Basin can make a significant contribution to the local and state revenue base. Every effort should be made to encourage am protect mineral entry and development in this region. 4. Statewide Goal: Environmental Quality and Cultural Values Maintain existing environmental quality and cultural values. Mineral development is not incompatible with protecting environmental arrl cultural values. Mineral exploration arrl development, when conducted in accordance with existing regulations and plan guidelines, will not cause undue harm to these important values. In almost all cases, compromises can be v.orked out which allow development to take place while protecting the environmental quality arrl cultural values of the.Tanana Basin. 6-2 II. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS A. ReeoJDJDendations for Designations I. Designate Active Mining Areas and Areas of Very High Potential Primary Use Minerals. On these high value areas, minerals should be at least a ooprimary use. All of the areas designated on Alternative 4 as 501, 601, 602, 603, and 607 have roth very high mineral rntential and high levels of historic and current production. The following guidelines are proposed for the management of these lands: a. Land disposals should be few and small in nature. b. Land sales should rot proceed without careful design to avoid mining claims and mineral concentrations. c. These areas should remain open to rocrl developnent. d. Timber harvesting, material sales, agricultural leases, trapper cabins, rem::>te cabins, ronmercial leases, grazing and habitat enhanoenent would be allowed after consultation with DMEM. 2. Retain Areas of High Mineral Potential in Public Ownership and Open to Mineral Entry. Areas are designated as 502 or 605 on Alternative 4 have known potential for minerals but generally few active claims. On these areas, minerals should be a secondary use and the area should be left open to mineral entry. The following guidelines are proposed for the management of these lands: a. These areas should be left open to mineral entry. Land sales may be permitted with consultation of DMEM, but they should be small and their design should take mining claims and mineral values into account. b. Large project agricultural sales would not be acceptable in these areas. c. Trapper cabins and reroc>te cabin permits would be acceptable, as would timber harvesting, material sales, grazin:J and road development. Scattered small tracts may be acceptable with DMEM consultation. 6-3 _j -, --,.: / 3. Whenever Possible Leave Areas Open to Mineral Entry. Other areas should not be closed to mineral entry unless irreversible damage \\Ould be done to a scarce or very valuable surface resource. Areas designated for disposal will be closed to mineral entry during the LADS disposal process. 'Ihe following management guidelines would apply to these undesignated lands: a. These areas should be left open to mineral entry because their mineral potential is as yet largely unknown. b. If there is an overriding concern regarding another resource or if the area is of very high value for disposals, a mineral closure may be acceptable. Ibwever, prior to closing an area, all possibilities for leaving it open to leasehold location should be pursued. c. 'Ihese areas should be left open to coal prospectill3 and leasing and to oil and gas leasing unless there is an O'lerriding ooncern for the protection of another resource. --------- 6-4 l Appendices _j l r l J J ~co"" co co"~"~~~~~~~~~~ ..i APPENDIX4A GEOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY OF THE TANANA BASIN Geography The Tanana River or 'River of the Mountain Men' as it was known to Indians and early explorers, flows 44U miles from the confluence of the Nabesna and Chisana Rivers northwest to the Yukon River. The :3b, 000 mi 2 drainage basin is bounded on the south by the Alaska Range, on the north by a hydrolog;ic divide with the Yukon River, and on the west by a low hydrologic divide with the Kuskokwim Mountains. The study area lies in four physiographic provinces: the Alaska Range, Tanana H.i ver lowlands, Yukon Tanana Upland, and the Kuskokwim Mountains (Wahrhaftlg, 1865). The legal boundary of the study area omits a si~nificant portion of the Tanana drainage basin: hence we have included the Kantishna Hills in this summary. Bedrock Geology Yukon Crystalline Terrane About three-fourths of the bedrock underlying the Tanana Basin can be assigned to the Yukon Crystalline Terrane, a pol ymetamorphi c-igneous-complex ranging in age f ro1n Precambrian to upper Paleozoic (Foster and others, l!.f7 :3). This large unit underlies portions of all four physio~raphic provinces, including the Tanana River lowlands where it is deeply buried by Quaternary fill. The southern boundary of the crystalline rocks lies just north of the Denail Fault, a fundamental geologic feature that separates the metamorphic sequence from younger largely unmetamurphosed rock units on the south. Originally known as the 'Birch Creek Schist,' the Yukon Crystalline Terrane L1 as bee n sub d i vi de d i n to at 1 east f i v e d i s t i n c t i v e lithologic packages that differ in metamorphic history, genesis, and age. Recent work in the Kantishna Hills, nortl1-ceutral Alaska Range, and Fairbanks areas by both indu8try and DGGS have shown that certain metamorphic sequences are mineralized and host numerous metal deposits. Some of these will be described in the mineral resources section. 4A-l I' Precambrian-Mesozoic Sedimentary and Minor Volcanic Rocks In the western portion of the Yukon Tanana Uplands near Livengood, relatively unmetamorphosed sedimentary and minor volcanic rocks are tectonically JUXtaposed to the Yukon Crystalline Terrane. These rocks range in age from late t>recambri an to Cretaceous and consist of sandstone, limestone, shale, chert, greenstone, and minor ultramafic intrusions. Similar rocks (but not related) occur south of the Denali Fault in the Alaska Range from Cantwell eastward to the Clearwater Mountains. Altered basalt, andesite, and some sedimentary rocks of Permian, Triassic, and Jurassic age underlie much of the Clearwater Mountai ns-.Paxon Mountain area. Some metamorphic rocks also occur south of tne Denali Fault but are believed by must geologists to be unrelated to those in the Yukon-Crysta 11 i ne Terrane previously described. Igneous Rocks Granitic plutons are scattered throughout the Alaska Range (but mainly concentrated east of the Richardson Highway), and in the Yukon-Tanana Upland. These composite bodies range in composition from quartz diorite to 6ranite and appear to average quartz monzonite in composition. Several large bodies in the Alaska Range are signatured by prominent rnagneti c highs. The plutons range in age from Devonian to Early Tertiary (050-60 m.y.); 90 percent crystallized during Cretaceous-Barly Tertiary time (140-60 m.y.). Rare to uncommon alkalic and ultramafic dikes intrude a crystalline schists of the eastern Alaska Range (Foley, 1981). These dikes bear some interest in terms of potential for platimum and gemstones. Small felsic porphyry plugs of Late Cretaceous age in the Richardson and Livengood areas are lode sources for placer ~old. Ultramic rocks occupy a thin discontinuous belt trending from the head u£ the Salcha River southwest toward Wood River Butte in the Tanana Lowland. An important asbestos find on Slate Creek near Eagle (outside the study area) is hosted within this rock package. 4A-2 Tertiary Sediments Tertiary coal bearin~ rock::> underlie :several 11UtHireJ Si.J.uare mi le:s of the central Alaska Ran~e near Healy and about lb square miles in the eastern Alaska H.an~e near Jarvis Creek. These rocks have been :subdivided into several formations near Healy, but not at ,Jarvi::; Creek. However, the strati~raphic sections in both fields is similar and can be subdivided _into three major members: a basal portion of micaceous sandstone and con~lomerate, middle units of arko::>ic sand, coal, and lacustrine silt., and upper units of claystone, sandstone, and thin coal seams (Wahrt1aftig, l!::loH). All coal bearing rucks range in age from Miocene to ~liocene. They are believed tu underlie at lea::;t _portions of tt1e Tanana Lowlands. Capping the coal bearing group in both areas is aerially extensive Nenana Gravel of the late ~liocene age. Carter ( l!::!Hl) has suggested tlHt t portions of the Nenana ~ravel are outwash or till depos.i ted by a late Tertiary glaciat_ion. Pleistocene-Holocene Geology Pleistocene glaciation took place in ~uch of the Alaska H.ange but is absent in most of the Kuskokwim Mountains, Tanana Upland, and Tanana Lowlands. Several advances of Wisconsinan and pre-Wisconsinan ice left deposits in major north flowing ::;treams leaving the Alaska Range (l>ewe, 1!::175). In general, glacial deposits are progressively modified through time and landforms such as moraines, kettles, eskers, and outwash fans are absent in the old-est depo::;i ts. Glaciation is an important consideration in a regional appraisal of placer gold deposits because glacial ice tends to scour out, disseminate, or bury heavy mineral placers (Hundtzen, 1!::1~0). There are significant exceptions to this generalization. Today the Tanana Basin is actively undergoin~ modification through various periglacial erosional _processes. Loess; i.e., homogeneous deposits of silt, have been transported by ::;trong winds from the Alaska H.ange and cover the uplands near Fairbanks with accumulations uf many feet thick. Stream deposited reworked si 1 t fans and slope deposits fill valley bottoms. Thick accumulations of Sphagnum peat cover poorly drained lowlands. Hugh alluvial ------------------- 4A-3 ., fans extending north from the Alaska Range have buried the Tanana Lowland, a deep structurally controlled trough. Many of the stream valley::> in the Fairbank::>, Livengood, Manley, and Hi chardson areas contain gold bearing gravel deposits in ancient stream depo::>its. The gravels v~ny in thickness and are often overlain by younger sediments such as reworked silt, peat, and sand termed 'muck overburden.' The Fairbanks district is well known for extensive dredging operations of these gravels---described in the mineral resource section. Altiplanation terraces, stone polygons, stone stripes, and solifluction lobes are common geomorphic features in higher altitudes (_1,500 ft) on all upland areas within the basin. Thaw lakes, pingos, abandoned oxbow lake::>, and thermokarst topogravhy are common in valley fills, particulary in the Yukon-Tanana Upland. The entire region is in the zone of discontinuous permafrost.. Modern day geologic "hazards" associated with these geoniorphologic feature include permafrost, ground water distribution, landslide potential, hillside erosion, and flooding. Of these, permafrost is a constant engineering problem in much of the basin; failing to recognize tllis condition during construction projects can have dire consequences. The City of Fairbanks is built entirely on the flood plains of the Tanana and Chena Rivers. Such hazards should be important considerations for disposal of settlement, agricultural, or industrial development lands. The reader is encouraged to review an excellent summary by Pewe (1~82) of these processes as they affect the general Fairbanks area. Structural Geology Several major folding episodes have folded pre-Quaternary bedrock units in the Tanana Basin. Much of the folding is associated with a complex history of mountain building deformation and plate boundary interactions. Young parallel high angle faults have formed 'grabens' in the Alaska Range and are responsible for the distribution of Tertiary coal bearing units. Major faults in the study area include the Tintina Fault, a major structure that forms the boundary between the Yukon-Tanana Upland and Yukon H.i ver Basin on the north, and the Denali Fault in the Alaska Range. 'Tear' faults oblique to these two parallel structures include the Shaw Creek, Minook, and Minto Faults, all of which appear to be active. 4A-4 Alaska is part of the circum-~acific seismic belt where more than 7 percent of world seismic energy is released. Even though many do not consider the Tanana Hasin seismically active, nine earthquakes with Kichter magnitudes e~ceeding o.U have shook the region in the last ~u years (fig. J). A ten-year period has been well established for these large quakes. One such earthquake, the October 15, 1947 Nenana 'Shake' reached a magnitude of 7.0 and was partially responsible for cancellation of plans to bui 1 d an air force base at the present site of Clear, Alaska. EXPLANATION Earthquake Magnitude • 6.0. 6.9 .7.0·7.9 May 10,1958-MacniLude 6.4 ----~::..:::..~ May 10, 1958-Macnitude 6.4 -------" Dee. 21,1958-Macnitude 6.0------~ May 24..195()-Macnitude 6.0-----------' 1900 ,----------AUL 27."1904--Ma&nltud~ 7.1 ,__,_ ____ July 6, 1912-Maanltude 7.4 ---Sept. 3, 1935-Macnitude 6.3 ----July 22, 1937-Macnitude 7~3 Figure 3. Earthquake periodicity in Tanana Basin, fro:m Pewe (1982). -~----------------------------------------------------------------- '::!>' 4A-5 APPENDIX SA 1. PLACER MINING MODEL (BOTH PRECIOUS AND BASE METALS) The model is based on four state mining claims (160 acres) with 15 percent of the land containing placer values (24 acres). It was assumed that 15 feet of overburden ("muck") cover 10 feet of pay-gravels, containing values at $10 per cubic yard. It is further assumed that 100 yards3 per hour of material are moved with 40% of being run through the sluice box. An average work day of nine hours, and 110 work days were considered the working season. The operation employs 4 people. Capital Costs The equipment complement consisted of the following: 1982 Price 1 D8 Cl-\T dozer $349,820 1 966 Loader 182,180 Large capacity sluice box 5,000 Pump 3 ., 000 Transportation & set up 50,000 $600,000 Revenues The operation is assumed to use water pumped from a creek to run through the box. The D-8 dozer str-ips the overburden and loads the sluice box while the 966 Loader removes tailings. Clean up is once-a-week. Given these assumptions $400,000 in gross revenues are ($400/ounce). ---------------------------~--~---- SA-I it was figured generated each that year 1UO 9 900 110 100,000 .40 40,000 10 $400,000 Operating Costs yardJ moved/hr hr. workday yardJ/day of material moved workdays per season yardJjseason of material moved percent of material run through the box yardJ processed gravels average valuesfyardJ Gross Revenues per season Typical annual operatin~ expenses are roughly $180,000 fur such an operation, assuming that it employs 4~5 people at 4)40 per 11uur. (see following table). Typical Operating Expenses per Year Payroll :$80,000 Workmans Comp & Other Ins. 16,100 Fuel, Lube, etc. 46,000 Maintenance 60,000 TOTAL $181,100/year Profitability If these figures represent reasonable operating costs, then a net cash flow of roughly $150,000 per year could be expected from tnis Operation. Using a capital expenditure figure of ::PoOO, 000 pres en ted on the previous page, this operation would have an IR.H. .of 41% over the life of this operation given :stable 60ld prices which held the gravel values at an average of roughly $10/cubic yard ($400/ounce). This indicates that this is a good investment, and that the operation would be profitable. If the value::; were $7.50 per yardJ (assuming a drop in prices from ~400 oz to $J00 oz) this operation would generate $j00,000 in revenue each year, which after deducting operating costs, and taxes would yield a cash flow uf roughly $100,000 per year. Th1s yields an lRH. of +10 .o% over the life of the mine. Under these conditions the model operation becomes only marginally feasible. ~-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------..., 5A-2 APPENDIX SB. ALASKA TAX STRUCTURE Taxe:::; i mvo:::;ed by the State of Alaska that directly affect mining are as folluws: 1. Alaska Corporate Income Tax Ala:ska' s corporate income tax is based on the :tederal tax code. Generally, income, deductions and tax credits genera ted within the state are treated the same as under federal tax laws. Inve:::>tment tax credits are lim.i ted to 1~% of the federal credit. The tax rates are: Taxable Income $ 10,000 -40,000 40,000 JO,UOO ::so,ooo -40,000 40,000 -bU,OOO 50,000 -60,000 60,000 -70,000 70,000 80,000 ~o.ooo -~o.ooo ~o.ooo -1,ooo,ooo 1,000,000 -4,000,000 4,000,000 or more Base Amount of Tax :p 100 plus ::sou plu:::> 600 plus 1,000 vlus 1,500 plus ~,lOU plu:::> 2,700 plus ::S,oUU vlus 4,500 plus ~0,040 _plu::; ::S!::l0,040 plus Excess Percent of Over ~ <" o/ 10,000 J :w,uou 4 ::so,ooo 5 40,000 6 50,000 7 oU,OOU ~ 70,000 !:::1 ~o.ooo !:::1.4 !:::10,000 lll 1,000,000 11 4,000,000 It :::>hould be income taxes. therefore do ventures. noted that Ala:::>ka has eliminated indi.vidual ~artnerships and sole proprietorships not pay state taxes on profits from mini n5 2. Mining Ucense Tax Three and one-half years after production begin::>, mining operations are liable for a license tax based on net income as follows: Net Income ~40,000- $50,001 - $ 50,000 $100,000 Over $100,000 Tax Rate ::S% $1,500 plus 5% uf the excess over ~50,000. $4,000 plus 7~ of the excess over $100,000. 5B·l , Net income is determined by standard federal tax accounting methods. The depletion allowance is limited to 15% for metal mines. 3. Local GovernJDent Taxes Mines located within will be liable for real patented claims as well equipment. organized boroughs and/or towns property taxes on buildings and as personal property taxes on 4. ElnployJDent Security Taxes Employers pay a minimum of 4.~% tax on the first $14,400 of employee wages annually to the State's Unemployment fund. """""'-~ ~ ~ -~ ~ ~ ~~~~-~~~~~ c.> 58-2 APPENDIX SC MINE MODELS DELTA BELT MINE ASSUMPTIONS: Open Pit mine, 5,0UU tons per day ore Waste-to-Ore ratio ~:1 ~30 operatin6 days per year Production 44M,OOO tons per year of Copper-Lead-Zinc ~ilver concentrates Logistics model based on "Arctic Mine" (WAATS; Janson and Hottge), and scaled from porphyry Cu-Mo mine model (Table 3.1 -2.~) 448 employees SUPPLIES: Explosives Y~0.75 lb/ton Ore and Waste 0.75lb. x :JO,UOO T/Day x ~~0 Days/Yr. 2,000 Tires Y 20% of Cu -Mo mine 0.2 x 411 tons Lube and Grease Y 20~ of Cu Mo mine 0.2 x 561 tons Repair Parts, Mine and Mill @ 20% Cu - Mo mine 0.2 x 2~1 tons Overhaul/Heplace~ent Y 20~ Cu -Mo Mine Mill Steel and liner consumption at ~1.1~ lb/Ton Ore 1.9 lb x 5,000 TPD X ~30 days/Yr. 2,000 Heagents 0.0 lb/Ton Ore 0.9 lb. x 5,UOO TPD x 33U Days/Yr. 2,000 Support U10 lb/empluyees/Day 10 lb. x 228 Employee x 365 Days/Yr. 2,UOO Total Dry Supplies FUEL REQUIREMENTS Diesel Fuel: 65% workin~ factor for open pit equipment 4,200 HP @ 0.037 Gal/HP/hr. = = = = = = = 2,475 Tuns M2 Tons 112 Tons 46 Tons 1~4 Tons 1,561; Tons 743 Tons 416 Tons = 5,636 Tons 0.037 X 4,200 iiP X 24 drs/Day x 3:.JO Days= 1,321,000 Gal. Coal: mill Y25 ~wh/Tun Ore 25 x 5,000 TPD x 330 Days/Yr. Support U 7.5 KwnjEmployeejDay 7.5 X 228 X ~65 Total Power Hequirement '!Y 1,220 Kwh/Ton of coal (based _, · · -------------------e>n-&V-b'-A-ee>a-1-pe>wer-ge-ne-ra-t-h::>n-)-: 41,874,150 Kwh/Yr. · 1, 220 Kwhj'r Source: Interior Transportation Study SC-I = 41,250,000 = 624,150 = 34,300 Tons ,, ~ ! DENAU AND DRY CREEK ASSUMPTIONS: Denali -Underground Mine, 600 Tons per day 0re. Logistical model based on Tungsten Mine Model (Table J.l -~.5) and "Green Creek" Mine Model (WAATS) JJO operatin~ days per year Production: 64,000 Tons ~inc-Lead-Copper-Silver Gold concentrates per year Dry Creek Equivalent to 2 Denali-Type Mines SUPPLIES: Dry supplies FUEL: Liquid Fuel Coal (heating and substituted for drying), if Propane: Propane = Coal = !:H,SOO BTU/Gal. 1~.4 x 10° BTU/Ton ~40,000 Gal. Propane x ~1,800 17.4 X 106 Source: Interior Transportation Study. 5C-2 8~1 Tons 1,110,000 Gal. = 1,~66 Tons TUNGSTEN MINE ASSUMPTIONS: Underground Mine, 600 Tuns per day Ore mined Mine -300 operating days per year Mill -500 tuns per day, 7 days per week ~roduction: 6,540 tons of Tungesten concentrates per year 143 gmployees SUPPLIES: Explosives ~ U.o5 lb/Ton Ore U.o5 x oOU TPU x 300 Days/Yr. 2,000 = 59 Tires, Lube, repair parts, drill Reagents @ 316/Ton Ore steel (est.) = ~u 3 X (:)00 X 300 2,000 Mill steel and liner consumption Overhaul Y 20% bf Equipment wt. 0.2 x 11~ Tons ~upport Y 10 lb/Employee/Day y 1. 02 143 Employees x 10 lb./Day x 365 Days 2,000 FUEL: Total Supplies Mine equipment, Diesel-powered Power plant (diesel) ~ 80,000 galjmo Propane: (cleating and Drying) Average -20,000 galjmo x 1~ Total Fuel Source: Interior Transportation ~tudy. 5C-3 = :no lb/Ton = 119 = 22 = 2o1 = 821 150,000 9oO,OUO = 240,000 = 1,350,000 Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons Gal. Gal. Gal. Gal. APPENDIX SO CONSUMER BENEFITS FROM COAL USED FOR POWER GENERATION The cost of an equivalent amount of oil was used as an estimate of the value of coal for power generation. Cost of a coal contract Cost of an oil contract = $24.00/ton(a) = $ .80/gallon 145 gallons of oil = 0.8 tons of coal = 1MWH (megawatt hour)(a) 1MWH (me~awatt hour)(a) A.Civilian Power Generation Facilities require 000, ooo (a) tons of coal to produce 375,000 MWH Oil used to generate :575,000 MWH = 46.9 million gallons 46.9 million gallons at $0.80/~al = $:57.5 million Less current cost of :300,000 tons of coal at $22/ton = 6. 6. million Savings due to burning coal instead of oil = $:50.9 million B. Military and University Facilities require 480, ooo (b) tons of coal to produce an estimated 600,000 MWH This would require 75.4 million gallons of oil. 75.4 mill1on gallons at $0.80/gal = ~oo.o million Less current cost of 480,000 tons of coal = 10.6 million Savin~s due to burning coal instead of oi 1 Total savings due to burning coal Civilian Facilities Military and University Facilities TOTAL $49.4 million $J0.9 million 49.4 million $80.3 million (a)Fairbanks North ::>tar Borough H.esearch Center Energy Report , 1982 (b)Estimate based on 800,000 tons total production, 000,000 used by MU::> and 20,000 used for space heating. 50-I APPENDIXSE VALUE OF COAL FOR SPACE HEATING If coal were not available, people may switch to tt1e next cheapest alternative, which is currently fuelwood. An estimated 40,UUU tons of coal are used for space heating in the Basin,(a) co:.:;ting $'/!J per delivered ton,(b) and t1aving an average value of ~.suo BTU's per pound. (1~ million BTU's per ton)(c) The cost of one million BTU's of fuelwood is about $10.~1 (see Appendix SF). 40,000 tons of coal at 1~ MMBTU'sjton = 3~0,000 MMBTU's An equivalent amount of fuelwood would cost $4.1 million. ($10.81/MMBTU x JMO,UUO MMBTU's = $4.1 million). This amo~nt of coal costs $2.0 million Savings due to burning coal is then $4.1 million. (a)Louis Berger & Assoc., Mineral Potential Working Paper, Interior transportation Study, 1~82. (b) Interviews with the manager of Fairbanks. the Coal Bunker, (c)Fa:irbanks North Star 1:3orough, H.esearct1 Center, Energy Report 5E·l _j APPENDIX SF ENERGY COST PER MILLION BTU'S (1982 DOLLARS) SOURCE $/MMBTU Electricity Propane Heating oil Wood (delivered) Lump coal (delivered) Wood (personally gathered) 4S.54 40.SS HJ. o4 10.81 !:>.1!11 4.8J !Assuming 15 mile delivery radius from coal bunkers. Source: Fores~ry ~lemen~ Paper, Economic Analysis, Tanana Basin Area Plan, 1YS4, with coal prices modified 'to reflect current prices. 36,500 cords fuel wood X 0.514 tons coal equivalent im BTU's 5F-l = 18,800 tons J l l l J ' _j l 1 _) l j l .J .J .J Bibliography MINERAL BIBUOGRAPHY Berg, H.C., and Cobb, deposits of Alaska: U.S. 254 p. E.H., 1967, Metalliferous lode Geological Survey Bulletin 1246, Boswell, J. C., 1979, History of Alaskan operations, USSR and M Company: University of Alaska Mineral Industry Research Laboratory, spring pub., 126 p. Bundtzen, T.K. Geologist, Alaska Division of G~ological and Geophysical Surveys. Bund tzen, Resources, 1982. Eakins, Conwell, Review of Alaska 1 s Mineral Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, Bundtzen, T.K., Eakins, G.R., and Conwell, C.N., 1982, Review of Alaska 1 s mineral resources; Cooperative report: Alaska Divis ion of Geological and Geophysical Surveys and Office of Mineral Development, 51 p., numerous appendixes. Bund tzen, T. K. , 19 8 0, Geological guides placers: University of Alaska Mineral Laboratory Report 46, p. 21-44. to heavy mineral Industry Research , 1981, Geology and mineral deposits of ----~~------~~~--Kantishna Hills, Mt. McKinley Quadrangle, Alaska: University of Alaska unpubished M.S. thesis, 230 p. Bundtzeni T.K., and Kline, J.T., 1981, Geologic mine map, Grant Gold mine: Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys Alaska Open-file Report 141, 2 p., 1 pl. Bundtzen, T.K., and Reger, R.D., 1977, The Richardson lineament---a structural control for gold deposits in the Richardson district, Alaska: Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys Geologic Report 55, p. 29-34. Carter, L. D. , 1981, Tert.iary tillites on northeast flank, Granite Mountain, Alaska Range: Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys Geologic Report 63, p .• 23-27. Cobb, E. H., 1973, Placer deposits Geological Survey Bulletin 1374, 213 p. of Alaska: u.s. Community Research Center, The Energy Report, ~"""~"" """~"~,~~n<?• 1, Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1982. vol. III, -' Divis ion of Minerals and Energy Management, Five-Year Oil and Gas Leasing Program, 1982. __) __ .1 Eakins, G. R., Dillon, J. T., Bund tzen, W.G., 1979, State of Alaska Hard Program: Unpublished Alaska Division Geophysical Surveys Report, 27 p. T.K., and Gilbert, Mineral Assessment of Geological and Eberlein, G.D., Chapman, R.M., Foster, H.L., and Gassaway, J.S., 1977, Table describing known metalliferous and selected nonmetalliferous mineral deposits in central Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey Open-file Report, 77-168D. Engineering . and Mining Journal, Vol. 21-25, McGraw Hill, 1982. 183, No. 11, pp. Foley, J. Y. , 198 2, Alkaline igneous rocks Alaska Range: Alaska Division of Geological Surveys Geologic Report 73, p. 1~5. of the eastern and Geophysical Foster, H.L., Weber, F.R., Forbes, R.B., and Brabb, E.E., 1973, Regional geology of Yukon-Tanana Upland: Arctic Geolory, Mem. 19, p. 388-395. Gilbert, W.G., and Bundtzen, T.K., 1979, Mid-Paleozoic tectonics, volcanism, and mineralization in the north-central Alaska Range: Alaska Geological Symposium Paper, 22 p. Governor's Agency Advisory Committee on Leasing, Social, Economic and Environmental Analysis of . the Proposed Middle Tanana Basin and Copper River Basin Oil and Gas Lease Sale No. 37, Office of the Governor, 1981. Hawley, c. C., and others, 1979, Mineral terrane map of Alaska: University of Alaska AEIDC, 6 pl~ Hill, J.M., 1933, Lode deposits of the Fairbanks district: u.s. Geological Survey Bulletin 849B, 163 p. Logsdon, Casavant, Thomas, Input-Output Tables for Alaska's Economy: A First Look, Alaska Agriculture. Louis Berger and Associates, Inc., Interior Transportation St~dy Mineral Forecasts, Department of Transportation, 1982. Louis Berger and Associates, Inc., Interior Transportation Study, Mineral Potential Working Paper, Department of ~~~~--~~~--~~~----------------~----~--Transportation, 1982. McGee, D. L., and Emmel, resources: Alaska Division individual report, 23 p. K.S., 1979, of Geological Alaska's coal and Geophysical --------.. -~----------~--·------~~-------.--------~-~-~--------·-----~---------··---~---------~ --------~- Pewe. T. L., 198 2, Geologic hazards of the Fairbanks area: Alaska Division of Ge6logical and Geophysical Surveys Special Report 15, 109 p. Mining Wastewater Settling R&M Consultants, Inc. , Placer Pond Demonstration Project Environmental Conservation, 1982. Report, Department of Rao, P. Dharma, PHD. Professor of Coal Technology, Mineral Industry Research Lab. Rawlinson and Hardy, Peat Resource Map of Alaska, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, 1982. Robinson, M.S., and Bundtzen, T.K. 1 production in Alaska, a mini summary. Geological and Geophysical Surveys Bulletin, v. 23, no. 3, p. 1-6. 19'79, Historic gold Alaska Division of Mines & Geolbgy Robinson, M.S., Smith, T.E., Bundtzen, T.K., Albanese, M.A., 1982, Geology of the Livengood district: Alaska Miners Conservation (Abstract), October, p. Robinson, M.R., and Bundtzen, T.R., 1982, Geology of Scrafford antimony-gold lodei Fairbanks district: Alaska Division of Geolo9ical and Geophysical Surveys Open-file Report 173, 7 p. Smith, T.E., Robinson, M.R., Bundtzen, T.K., and Metz, P.A., 1981, Geology of the Fairbanks mining district---a new look at an old mineral province [abs.] : Anchorage, Alaska Miners Convention, November, 1981. Strategic Management, Alaska Has Great Mineral Potential - But Lots of Problems as Well, November 1, 1982., p.4. Wahrhaftig, Clyde, 1965, Physiographic divisions of Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 482, 52 p. , 19 68, The coal bearing group in the ------------~~~~~---Nenana coal field, Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1274-D, 30 p. Wolff, Ernest N. PhD., P.E., Associate Director and Professor of Mineral Exploration, Mineral Industry Research Lab.