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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA2342[M]&fffi~& c §rn3&®©© Susitna Joint Venture Document Number Please Return To DOCUMENT CONTROL S U S I T N A P R 0 J E C T S T A T U S REPORT F E B R U A R Y 1 9 8 3 I . I I 'I CHART I 1 2 I 3 4 I 5 6 7 J 8 9 ·I I .. ) 10 11 -12 13 ~-14 15 11 16 17 " ! 18 -19 20 ~ 21 22 ~ 23 24 ~~ 25 ! 26 ' 27 ~ \ 28 29 ~; 30 ~~. , I} IJ NO. .. SUSITNA PROJECT STATUS REPORT FEBRUARY 1983 TITLE The Susitna Project Project Purpose Use of Susitna Generation: Med. Load Forecast Use of susitna Generation: Low Load Forecast Economic Feasibility Test Sensitivity Analysis Probabilities Low Load/Base Case Multivariate Analysis 5 Stages of Susitna Project Development Prerequisites to Construction Land Acquisition Schedule Spring 1983 Update Project Cost History Tyee Project Cost Estimate History Important Parameters Load Forecast Load Forecast Update Construction Cost Escalation Cook Inlet Natural Gas Supplies Estimated Cook Inlet Wellhead Gas Costs Susitna Project Advantages North Slope Gas Option Chakachamna Project World Oil Price Forecast Project Scale Watana Darn Height Reduction Executive Director Recommendations Techniques for susitna Cost Control Constructio~ Management Involvement Power Authority Recommendations -,.., 1 I· I .I I I I I - I JJ l ~ I - ~ ~ ~' j ~: .. ' ~~ i ~. DAH TYPE DAH HEIGHT RESERVOIR LENGTH INSTALLED CAPACITY AVERAGE ANNUAL ENERGY TRANSHISSION SYSTEM COST ($ 1982) COST (@ 6% INFLATION) .• · ,, COMMISSIONING DATE THE SUSITNA PROJECT WATANA ZONED EARTHFILL 885 FEET 48 MILES 1,020 .HW 3,460 GWH 345 KV .3.58 BILLION 5.74 BILLION 1993 1 DEVIL CANYON CONCRETE ARCH 645 FEET 26 NILES 600 HW 3 ,3 4 0 GVlH 345 KV 1.57 BILLION 2002 . ·'' --~~ ..... ,.,,_ •• _~~~:· .. ~:·.:;:JJ ~..ai..i~~--liiJ '""' ... I! -~~~~~~$~~-:~ .. ""r~t4-"A,~·:,..;: ... :.;.~i.i~,~.,;:;~;:,';;;,-....,,~.,~":,;_,_""'~"'+>~,.,...,. .. ,·~.v__-..;,,.,._.~·~·.,...,._~ .. --~,;r...,_,..:.~,~ ........ ..,_ . .,:.:~,,.;.::....;,.-.,-., .... --..~ ... ""t.-~ ..... ......,.;.-•• ..,..,,...:..,,._,..ry •. ,.,~: ... t~;,...,.,.,_.._., _ _,...,.;,.,,~~--·~· •""'' .. :;: .. ·.y_,.,..,J-: '-~.r··.-~;#•-~·~'""'"~C~~~~~~!!tl!l -ll l .1 1 l J J. J I l ~! ' f - ,. :fill ~ ~j 11 rJ 0 0 PROJECT PURPOSE MEET RESERVE MARGINAL AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS REDUCE OVERALL COST OF THE GENERATING SYSTEM 6 c . -~ ~ ~ :-~ !.-. f 1.,~ ~ ;.,._._ - w ,... 1... ·~-··<'J '•1111 mJI! -~ ]!It~ ·_'lii%-i:J u:~F ··IT~lfi-GE~MTr~ltit· li!M ~ IOr----------=~r=~~==~==~====~~~~~ 8 ::c ?; 6 (!} 8 0 r (!} TOTAL DISPATCHED ENERGY ~ ~ 4 ~·--------------------~ w 2 0 1980 DEVIL CANYON WATANA EXISTING AND COMMITTED HYDROELECTRIC 1990 2000 ' 2010 Medium Load Forecast .... ./ I .IM I1WI ,. , .. -- l i I !.:. -~ I ~~ w::.. \) , > • .. .. }. r-c-~ ,..._ ....__ L~·~n! ~¥>~------:~ ~~~-,-'~ ---~:-~~! =-~ ~ -. ..-~ "ll!lWiM ~lll!llfa! 1111 .,_ ~~~ ~---··"'·~ -~,!!! ~ --'--~ ..:!:~ ·~ . ..:; ..... --. ...... 'I1BIIIi. ~ E·~ .!~ ~ ·~ USE OF SUSITNA GENERATION -- e • . 6 J: ~r .DEVIL ?= (9 COAL\ CANYON 0 0 0 <4 - I >- l? a: w I I WATANA z w GAS 2 I I COAL '-------------- OTHER HYDRO COAL 0 . 198!S 1990 2000 . 2010 . LOW LOAD FORECAST ~ ~ '" ) l i ! b R" ~ .. ~ .. I ~\ ~ 11: ~ !: 1 !. t ~ l I t 1 '" l ·, } ' i ,, ~ f l t I i t , .. ,~ f ~-- t I . . ' I· E· . ~· I I f I ~ • 1 \- I 1 I \.1 '.!.) ' 1 \- --------~----- ___ I r-- \ I )- l- I -l t:l \ <:t:'l ~ q:: \ ~ .J '"" ~ \~ \ <t< ~q: \ 1-.J -n.. .., \ ';) '1.') < 0 .<. . I· V) . ) Q:: \lJ ~-lL l <.) . I '!( 0 'Z ' 'J~ 0 \.} w i' . j ' i ~ 1 ~; ~j _1 So::> ~{ .. , .. f -~ .• ' . 5 - 0 cr 0 r-l \t) 0 c-J c! <t' \JJ ""r 0 o- c-- ~ ~ v ~ < t--\,., ::> t.; r- ~ 0 :t t--~ V) t-- til 0 u ~ tu \- t") >- V) -: ' .. ~· . ;-, L. ~ .J Q.. <t" ~ ' -t.., ';) ~ ~ ~ 4.. \.J ~-::)" " ~ <= -tt \-f.lJ -~ < "':;:) \u v, 0 ~ t-::t: t-\-q -\.u hl .1 -::1. <.. <t: '=l. \\ ::c ~ 0 1J V\ ,--.. 0 \.) cq ' ~ "[ 1u ~ v V) -;-. V') •. : r . < ": ' " ~ ' ~ ,....,., [~ ~ ·~ "~.-~l .... ~···l __ , .@l .. ~ :~J.!.~ ];~ ~~~~ )ilK~ :~ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS .._ ~!i~~!!!!l ~ ~ ~ ,,, -~ .._,___... . ...._ __ _.... ----..... -_. . :;~ \'l 0'1 • 1 ,j ~ ~~ ;l .- !''-" IJ' ~ CJ\ 1 i l 1 ! ! t I ~ ----·---·--···-BASE CAS I:.--·- , r:--···-.--.-t .. ,1 h, t hu J--::o.---------'------y-,----fu171 ELEMENT TESTED HIGH LOAD FORECAST ( 11,_400 -~ W H_!i'J 2:::-:0=1 0=--'-) ------ LOW LOAD FORECAST ( 6,300 GWH IN 2010 ) 5 % REAL DISCOUNT RATE 4% REAL DISCOUNT RATE 2% REAL DISCOUNT RATE HIGH CAPITAl_ COST FOR ALTERNATIVE ( 20% ABOVE ESTIMATE ) -COW CAPITAL COST FOR-A'-:-L=T=E=RNATIVE ( I 0 % BELOW ESTIMATE) LOW SUSITNA-CAPITAL cb"'""'s=T=s ___ _____. ( 83 % OF ESTIMATE ) -HIGH SUSITNA-CA-PiTAL COSTS ( 117% OF ESTIMATE) ZERO CAPITAL COST ESCALATION -HIGH CAPITAL COST ESCALATION ( 3. 6 % I ANN U M ) HIGH BASE COAL PRICE ( $ 2.08 /MM BTU L. , .... ~ .. : ;;~;·;_; .. I ":: .. ::.·: ... i.;:.L.:: .. ·::: .... ,.:: ::i.:t:! ..... l I I . [[ r~:;. ;~~~i;~~~~g=-=~-:----- , (2979) CHAKACHAMNA ALTERNATIVE -1000 -50)0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 NET ECONOMIC BENEFIT ( 1982 DOLLARS IN Ml LLIONS) I ·J . ~ ~ ~ .£:::::=_~ ~~~ f:~~ L:.:.!.. I, ·••a•u•tn.zaltt tiO!IIIIf\fiiiWJA ,ac;a.aawuoa;.,..,u;u.Je :a s;za: .. zacus sa ,..::s m za.sua::aQ42SIJltll!ikWIUSCJAUas;:auw:,ea;;sw' u;.e.w"a"ag;aqz~ :r \ ' t r ' ~ " '11\ ~ ! i• l· t E lr l> li t t: l ., . ... ; ' r i t ~ ' ' i ~ I l ' t ' f. ~ . t 1 't' ·.-lC __ t l t; t. •. i i 1 r .. t, .. ' ' ' i, ~ ~ ~ il " ~ i. ,, I ~ I l··-~ ' . t ~i -"-~ ~ ··' 1 '~ F~__:..J -=~, ·1 ' j .'i ;, 1 ' .! :'l ~ I ~ i ···~,, J ~ 1 l I t l t ! l ~-....._,...,... [~ ~ >-... -_J co <t Q) 0 0: a. w > ... <:{ _J :::> ~ '-.) :::> u ~ t ,... le\J . .5 . I I I (4500) ~ . - ~ Jfd -~l ~ 'I~.'E~ .)??~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .. ,. ~ ~ ""~-, ~ ..... ~· ~ --..•• :.! --!'"'!'"'·~1 ' . l-+-~-v"'v . r 1--L LOW LOAD FORECAST BIAS / // v • L vv v V~ BASECASE L I ~ . L ~ ~ ~ . .--::::. . (2500) v [7 v v vv -- . / 0 NET BENEFIT $ ~ 10 6 ll982 $ ASSIGNMENT OF PROBABILITIES LO\V' Medi urn Feasibility Study 0:2 0.6 Alternative Outlook 0.6 0.3 --- --- . _j 2500 High 0.2 6.1 I I . ~ ~ ~. ~ ~ ~-I i I • I I· l. '· ~ l ! I I I , ' L j i t ~ ·; t ~ r t l l 1 r . k .-:) ~ ~ ~ \\ l r l! -~ t "~ ::;:-· I· ~ f' ' ~ r ' ' ~ rl ' l t jJ I~ I f J . i \ i r ' ' [:.· ' J ~·. ' ; 11 ~· ,. ~ . . I -1 ; -j ------~----~-----+----~~----~ ~----~-----+------~----4---~--+--~---~-----------+-----~----~ 0 . J-l.llJS\180Hd 3/dl\1lm'm::> 8 0 0 ~ v 0 0 \{') ,.., 0 0 on N 0 0 \l') 0 0 tl') 0 0 0 \l') 0 0 on 0 0 \{') N 0 0 1('1 ,.., 0 0 \{') ~ en l-z 0 lL. _J w _J z ~ w ro z 1--t-tr w zN C) (J) ~ 0 H N 0 0 N 0 4-> rn ro 0 Q) H 0 f:t..t rd rtl 0 H 0 1.!1 N • 0 0 \0 0 +) UJ 0 u r-l rtl +J ·rl P-1 n:l u rtl ~ +J ·ri rn ::I U) LI) N 0 0 LI) 0 LI) N • 0 ~ 0 ·r-i +J rtl r-l rtl 0 rn M +J rn 0 u r-l Q) ::I f:q ·~'' .. I ;( lift tlr ,, .rii -~ jl ~~ ' I . . ' ' ~· . • l I] Ji ' ll .. JJ I' ~ L ' "·'. FIVE STAGES OF PRO~ECT DEVELOPMENT RECONNAISSANCE STUDY FEASIBILITY STUDY l ~ ~ DESIGN AND PERHITTING ~ ., PROJECT ' CONSTRUCTION OPERATION AND POWER PRODUCTION . - PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS. NARROW RANGE OF OPTIONS DETAILED ALTERNATIVES COMPARISON. FEASIBILITY LEVEL COST ESTIMATE. INDEPENDENT COST ESTI11ATE. FINANCE OPTIONS. FINAL COST ESTIMATE. CONSTRUCTION DECISION. FINAL FINANCE PLAN. POWER SALES AGREEMENTS. OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE AGREE- BENTS. 9 ~' ; . ; if! ~iii ft. -ltl r. ' ; • ! ' ' r \ •. . . r' . ;_ it L1 I iT If r ~J L, L. i L_ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PREREQUISITES TO CONSTRUCTION 100 PERCENT DESIGN COMPLETION FOR INITIAL CONTRACTS. ACCEPTABLE MASTER LABOR AGREEMENT. FINAL PRE-CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATE. POWER SALES AGREEMENTS. FERC LICENSE AND OTHER MAJOR PERMITS~ EXTERNAL REVIEW PANEL CONCURRENCE WITH DESIGN, SAFETY, AND MITIGATION MEASURES. ° FINANCE PLAN WITH FUNDING SOURCE ESTABLISHED. 0 TAX EXEMPT STATUS RULING FOR REVENUE BONDS. 0 LEGISLATIVE AUTHORIZATION. 0 POWER AUTHORITY DECISION TO CONSTRUCT. 0 PROJECT LANDS ACQUIRED. 10 r~-=-~-J!"P~·~~.""'"'"' ... 7~~.~ ... ,.;;;"""'" ....... -.... 6:<:··~---~~··:;>t.f: ··--· .~,......-~~'~··,.,!·'~~;~·~~"";~"-•,ft. • i ;+'-''" ''{ '" " • ' ', I' " • ' '} ' . ~ .-' ' ,· ' ' 11 li] I ' ,. -( ' •.! I~, ~ ·~ . '• IJ ' [ li L ~J tj t_ i L, L" ..... 0 0 0 0 0 0 PREREQUISITES TO CONSTRUCTION 100 PERCENT DESIGN COMPLETION FOR INITIAL CONTRACTS. ACCEPTABLE MASTER LABOR AGREEMENT. FINAL PRE-CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATE. POWER SALES AGREE.MENTS .. FERC LICENSE AND OTHER MAJOR PERMITS. EXTERNAL REVIEW PANEL CONCURRENCE WITH DESIGN, SAFETY, AND MITIGATION MEASURES. o FINANCE PLAN WITH FUNDING SOURCE ESTABLISHLu. 0 TAX EXEMPT STATUS RULING FOR REVENUE BONDS. 0 LEGISLATIVE AUTHORIZATION. 0 POWER AUTHORITY DECISION TO CONSTRUCT • . 0 PROJECT LANDS ACQUIRED. 10 ~ . ~ ' ' ;r . . I~: r; \ ' .~ t, r If L r· ~· ! [ I [ [ ,, , ~ ··~ l ~ L , L ' L L ~ ... LAND ACQUISITION SCHEDULE , JANUARY 1980 -DECEMBER 1982 0 0 MARCH -JULY 1983 0 0 JULY 1983 -JANUARY 1985 0 0 11 IDENTIFY PROJECT LANDS IDENTIFY LAND STATUS PRIORITIZE ACQUISITION EFFECT CONVEYANCE OF STATE AND NATIVE SELECTED LANDS NEGOTIATE WITH PRIVATE LANDOWNERS ACQUIRE ROW, LEASES ............ .<f' ...... f!!t..~~,I~.~~...:{,!-4~-~-···;,:~·-··~·~----,..~ .......... ~-A..,."~~~.:k!~--:t..l!lli:.'l*·{~"~ ..... . ' ' ' . . \ "-.- ~ ·~ ..... ~c~.:~ .. t:;;;.::;_......,;(,._~~~f..:!·:.,;':;,:;,;...~~:o~~£~,_,.,-..,...,..__~.., .... ".....;'~ .......... -... _,..:, . ....-.,... .... _ ....... __________ .~_;.__.....-...... ........ ~-.~"'·~·"'"·'"'..,..,"~·-""-""'~_,_..,..,.. ....... ~.~·~'-~-~~-...--,-·~. ;.. _ _,~.,-·,...._ .................. ,.. ..... ,~.~,;-r. .. -""'"'"""' • .....,..,.. ...... .,~ .... ~ .... ~~ .. ~-~~-~~ ... ~ ~~ L., ~~ r, t; [ [ [. [ [. [ L L L .. -. L ,., L COOK INLET GAS AVAILABILITY l COOK INLET GAS COSTS ~ USIBELLI COAL CONTRACT: SPRING 1983 UPDATE NORTH SLOPE GAS OPTION : ~.------r RAILBELT LOAD FORECASTS ECONOMIC A-----V-I_A_B-IL--IT_Y __ ~----~j~--~-~-o~_E_g_~----A----~~ 1982 ACTUAL GENERATION DATA FINANCE PLAN "" ~ CONSTRUCTION COST I "' ESCALATION OUTLOOl~ NEWER VERSION GENERATION PLANNING MODEL 12 ~-;to' '"l'\!P"~:,.. ';"'··~ \) .·., : ·, -~~",... ii 't a:-~-~.~~~ T .. ,,.. ~l!<;< ',~"'.t4-~n::-..,"';."';'.'Jft'-':7"""'~-":-41!~'~"":1'1'~""~'#(1..~;':.(1••.-'"''< >.<r.,•·,'·.~; . ....,;.;-r'""'": .. (-""'-~''""~"'l:""-o/"~'r•"';jr••'l'' ""'~~·~ ... -,. '."'-:-~·• ~ -• ..... , .... ~ '~ .. -. .. '. ' . .,_,.. ~. E ~~ . . L~, t ' ' .J t·.: . t PROJECT TYEE S\>lAN TERROR L01<? DAM HIGH DAM INTERTIE PROJECT COST HISTORY ($ MILLIONS) ESTI11ATE AT CONSTRUCTION DECISION 102-110 875 185 189 131 13' CURRENT ESTil1ATE 125 935 .... 189 131 ~-Lt tJ -~ ~ ~ ti ~; ·~ ~ ~ E t ~ ' :t l 1 i ,t ~ lt - TYEE PROJECT COST ESTIMATE HISTORY S0URCE IECO (DECEMBER 1979} IECO (SEPTEMBER 1980) EBASCO (JUNE 1981) NOMINAL COST ($1000) 49,491 59,086 104,581 IECO (JUNE 1981) 87,640 EBASCO (JUNE 1981) 109,430 CONSTRUCTION DECISION SEPTEMBER 1981 IECO (AUGUST 1982) 115,889 IECO (NOVEl1BER 1982) 117,892 IECO (JANUARY 1983) 123 1 666 14 - t ' ' .. . n' ' ' t,, I i ~-l . ' !.l '_1: IJ ' ~-' ·_I' . ' ... •.: I M P 0 R T A N T P A R A M E T E R S LOAD FORECAST (in 2010) ANNUAL GROWTH RATE DISCOUNT RATE (CONSTANT $) SUSITNA CAPITAL COSTS (CONTINGENCY) CAPITAL COST ESCALATION FUEL PRICE ESCALATION* BELUGA COAL ($1.51/MMBTU)** NATURAL GAS ($3.00/MMBTU) OIL ($6.50/MMBTU) * (1982-2000)/2001-2010) ** 1982 Price Estimate LOW 6,300 GWh (2.8%) 15 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BASE 7,800 GWh (3.5%) 3% 20% 2% 2.1%/1.2% 2.5%/2 .. 0% 2.5%/2.0% HIGH 11,400 GWh (4.7%) 5% 40% 4% 4.2%/2.2% 5.0%/2.0% 5.0%/2 .. 0% r:; l~ r . l . ~-> F £ft5181LtTY REPoRT A.SSUliPTJotJS : Be.rwce;tJ -.... -C :z~ \!) ~0 Oo ...... v < r-.... 0 ...... l-<t:\n ~ to "< ~!.r) ~ ..J ~ .... v -~t\j v \u ._lN lt1 2.... 8'-"7 0 A tJ D 1 t 7 % G ~0 triT H IN G NcR G 'I DE H fJ N D lC".f7 0 .2..0 00 16 AVEP..4G IE AHNIJAL 6 ROwo.JTH tf..7,.:;)RfTTES 2.olo '' . ¥~,4ii'l"~.~l'~i!'Y~l'..,.,_;c""':~,--T-'...,..c;...;.;.;,..;;,,~·>r?'>:J•"''''"-~-··-"C~, .. l· " ' ·-·--·•·''''''''""~"·-·w•-'"';C:,"-·'•" ·; __ ; ... ...,._,_ .. , ' ... ,.. ·"·''.. . v ·~' il'·, ,-I ' . ' ' ~. ·' \ . ·::>:': - \~ -~~~---iJ~rdlall .. ~~--~\._~.; .... ,;:.-/ol'-;~i..r.t.J..~~""···y~!l'&,,'';i;l,f!i••r:;.;:~,...._ • ..,:;,~~~--..:....:::J . ......ic~.J--~-............4-v--. ...:.-u~ .. ~ .• -->e#\ ........ ;...";.......,..,........,,....~ FORE CRST u PDAT£ < t--.. 0 ' \-<t-~ ct. ~ <, lJJ~ t.9 _J ~­v !'.( \1') t-v ~N w 1 Cf Co 1Cf1 0 ~00 17 -~rh. -·-.·-.~. . -'/#~,;~:::'(":;'~'f~""".....-~~-....... -~-~-_,..... __ "' ~ ........ ,,_,,~-,-r:·r..;:,.,·r-·.,.:··--J. . -.. --· --····-·~-_______ : , _____ :._::_,:.. .... :::-~·-·-~·.:...:·: ... ,.:--',_ ...... { \ , •. ~',.-~ ..... , '., ··;r.·-'" . ,. • ' ' .;, --' .:.:: ,.;. __ · ... ·, ··. ·"' ·, - AvER.AG 6 Arlt-IUAL G ROY-.JIH t;0 R.frTES l31'rTTcua L.OW Jo '} ~(J 2_olo t t l t i I r: '() '-~ I t: I [ ~~ ~ !... ' ~ ! K ~ ~ ~ Lt: -..,) Q( ~ }_ ~ \.... I ' 8 lll .J li ...... ~ ~ h .... c., I t., ~ a r \) ~ V} i -.. ' I -<. tu \S C) ~ ~ \:: \) L u "' :J ,, Q: Ll t' VJ ........ < a \) v t, \u <:) ~ ~ :) ~ ~ L i> ~ I \.0 I, ~ ~, ll I ~ l t -·--' Oo ~ -"" f'( ~ ,.., ........ I I % -~J~ar /.,f oJ J 1.7/ 1:' ::J r 3 I "!;}~cJ l l ~ Ll ~ "':-o: ~ ~ ~ 10 't . ~ ~ ~ ·"' ~ .l., " "' '0 Q: "' (!} ,\,. ft.; > .:;_ \.. • l1 --u t" ~ ~ ~ '"'-: ·" . ~~ 0: '-ll 0 { ~ ~ 1 «, ~ ~ \!.) '-l (!.1 ~ ~ <:J .. (..; ~ 8 '-l -.:::: \J ~ \ \ \ \ \ \ . Ill v ~ ~ {I) ~ u ex s:- <iJ ~ .e ~ --«1---..J..---- 19 \ \ \· ; \ \ . : \ ' ' \ \ j I \ I \ > 1iJ ·---c \ ' I ' \ . ' I \ u \ \ \ .. \ \ \ '. \ \. ~ ----------- ' ' ~' '~ ., ' . u f ~ LJ I r~ ~ ~ fl'1 Lli u~ I LJ I [j r r i;IJ I· .t_·· t'. f r IJ.l I t I L.~ I t I () <:) -~ \ ~ 0 C'> c () 0 Q <:::> <::> <:::> <:;) ()-:. t-0 r;. '-S l) rt?EJWW/1/ - 14 '-I " IJ ) .... () '-l '-'1 c (J,J <::) f:l:: ~ u "'( -8 ~ <J 0 <:::> ()"' <:::> <;;:) ~ ...... ~ I') rY ' . .Lso;; S"V5' I~ It ~1-------------------------------------------------------------_J J' L 20 I ~ -~~---j ll' ·j l __j ~ . .. Jl . -· "'"ii ~l 1 ~ _j -=-1 l ~ ~ i i j ~ < J ~ ~ i l .J ~ I l-.!.: i ! J L I l { j '' ."'t r- t-V I-' ~ ~-r-r--~ -:'~ t. .. ~ •"'!_, ~-"!'.1 If"!~ .... ~~ ~ *"'" c-':1. !..-.,...~. · .• -~ ~ .....____ ) ~ J._-_ ' E':·-~ r"',.., J.-->,.., ·~ ;o !""""'='lf L;."! r-'1" c1 /00 r- k < ~ u cv t;:O ~ - ~ /0- -----·~..1..~,_-.. - ...-_.,._._,,l.J SUS!TIVA PROJ"ECT ADVANTAGES ., / , "'-,(_ . / .. _,. lt!.,. /: ,{ r-.... :' ··, . ........_ _;' /'•'·... _,,.._ I ••. ~, . .... ... _"' 'Y I '< ' ............ ~; '·-., ;"'/ ·.>· .. · ./"· .... , .~· ....... • y , ~ /"-. I '-/ ··,~. Y, ,,., / .. '· ,/ ""' #. ' ... / l i'-,. / /'- .... ~: .. , ·· .. ~. . I At- .•. :",, . " ."'\"'-··~ -~:. · .. " " ,• . ., . .· ..... "'{~ '!." .·/·,, .. ' ' .• ' .. ,. . ' ,'"j . 1\JAlURAl GAS GT"'f CC.. FUt::L COST .... · ·· .. 7j_...-· I .• .t ./'~GT'<!-CC. I,"'! / , /;,_·': 6.,_M co~T ,I' J I / I I : I I ' 1 14!--GT +cc I~lVESTME NT { I I 1 CoST I ( I . I GAS YEA I~ ' . . . COAl «(--FuEL Ct>ST.:S ' . . r __ -x. ~·~ ., COAL. . ,_ ~ I ·;,/ 4--o+rv, /·/ /; .... ~ I I I ( \ ( \ \ \ I I I COAL- 4--.INVC.JTMFKT cor-r.s • -····;. J • I . - . -· •-.. .._ .. _ -~ •• . 7. ~., ""'' ..... /. IIJ ·-.~l / • -/·'·. /.;"' .. ,4--NATURAL GAS 1'-. • t •• ...... I FUE::L coST • I . ·; '• I ·, I ...;. ' . " . ~ ~";,(:"-~ I/ 7--r-1' /// /lA:-TBE:RMAL 0-f·M I , • '. • •. • · • .'· • · .ct.-G T I NVESTM~NT COST .~; "),. ~ ......... OTH EP-H\'01~0 0111 ~~ 1 ' \ suso'rNI\ O+l-'1 I • \I~ SU.SII ~~A .J:Nvl: .ST MEN r COST ..... -----~-------+ COAL ~US IT!\\ A ?.. 0 I 0 co.s T MIX J'*P·¥W+\ '" ,11\·A Pv 4;:pt #4 $$$$ _A-.-#U ... I ... i W Q 115~14«»1 \ ZUS 0 A 4 i $'1'41QU4 IIN....,.?Wi W W'P'o;; 4 iii'¥. 4 1+4P W*' H ;:;ow;- {\--;; ·:,:;;- ·,) ~ ~-·.. I l r ~ f\ j;. r t f t li t ~ i ~ l f i. II· f 0 0 ~j lli [~ L~ L~ lL ll lL 0 0 0 \\ .. NORTH SLOPE GAS OPTION DRAFT REPORT UNDER REVIEW THREE OPTIONS SITING, CONCEPTUAL DESIGN, FACILITY COST ESTIMATES 22 ' , _ _,, .• _V'• )-<-' •<·"'1. ,-., .......... ---------.. --~------~-·---· - . . ·""-- [ [ r: dl [ C~ [~ [~ [" l. l~ ll. lL CAPACITY FIRM ANNUAL ENERGY ANNUAL GENERATION TOTAL COST(l982 $) TOTAL COST ENERGY* CHAKACHAMNA PROJECT ~ FEASIBILITY STUDY 330 MW 1,374 GWh 1,446 GWh $1.45 BILLION 43.5 MILLS/KWh * Includes 15 MILLS PER KWh FOR O+M 23 UPDATE 330 MW 1,236 GWh 1,301 GWh $1.32 BILLION 44.5 MILLS/KWh • I ~. '.11 ... . ~ . ·~ '•y. I I r: L:t f'S t i; t I' '" ""-"l ,, ' ' n lL . D J [ C, p L k, I{ I l I L ... lu v -~ ~ ...J ...... C) 0 --...! ~ ~ ~ \ \ \ ' \ \ \ \ . \ \ \ ' ' •, \.., \ t . \. \ . \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ' \ \ - \ \ \ \ 24 \ \ \ ' I .!. \ l \ ~ \ • • \ ' I l c ..:.... c-.. j~ l I 1 1 ···_:j PROJECT SCALE r ?easibility R.eport-Recommendations: Watana Dam Height 885 ft. c 7300 .[ ... c C' i i r'f u U) 0 - D' X ...,. (/) l- 7100 -·-·--+-~------~------1-----·--i--,~-~-- ~~l----~--~~ ~---L--+---r----+-------1 7000 (/) rr 0 lL u .. z 0 t= n~ u ::::> 0 0 0: ll. L lL 0 :I: r- 0: [ 0 3: }- z w t (/) w 0: a. [ r li. l 1-----------+------- ( l ( .. 6500 805 845 885 ft . f [ I l Dam Height ) b 25 ' ~yr· '· .. ·· ~~~~'f.~o/~.,.,-.,-..,..-~·~~,.-~, .... -~~--~-:-l-··~---~··-.....,~~---~---~---~--·--··-- ·~ Jt~~'' ' ' ·4"'<~_,:. ' .... \ ' . " ..... r. L ~ ·LJ r u. 0 : c 0 .. ' r L r.; w ' [ [ [ [ IL I r lltt. DAl-1 HEIGHT FILL QUANTITY TIME OF CONSTRUCTION ANNUAL ENERGY CONSTRUCTION COST ($1982) PROBABLE COST REDUCTIONS WATANA DAM HEIGHT REDUCTION CURRENTLY UNDER STUDY 885 FEET 800 FEET 62 MILLION CY 46 HILLION CY 9 YEARS 8 TO 9 YEARS 3450 GWh 3040 GWh 3.58 BILLION 3.2 BILLION 10% 26 ,· ";" . ~~-0~~~--··;:,i"""ll""~oq .... ~,.-., ........ .,,,.,.,.-~ . .:..:,.~-, .... : ... ~ .. ,..,----:;-·1 -~··· ···-~··· :. ..... -............... ·-~-...... ;·-~··. ' J -- " ; 700 FEET 29 MILLION CY 7 TO 8 YEARS 2550 GWh 2.8 BILLION 20% t I I I \\ -·~.-~]_ ' . i'-' ! ., L i' I I L.i ,..... \ . l L..: rmt I ' ; u ~ I , L' j ~ Ll n u c r U. r Lt [ fl L. n ~ I L r"; L r• j I ' { l...ot. rl 4 r! k ' l ~ r. I I \llil(, • "' 0 0 0 0 0 EXECUTIVE DIR1CTOR RECOMMENDATIONS DILIGENTLY PURSUE FERC LICENSE APPLICATION AND 0'11HER PERHITS CONTINUE TO REVIEW PROJECT SCALE AND TIMING ACQUIRE PROJECT LANDS COMPLETE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN REPORT AND SUPPORTING INVESTIGATIONS ESTABLISH CONSTRUCTION FUND 27 > ~--··-_ • ..,.~'"' _,,.,., -,......~ .. "-"• .... .......-........ ~ HF I #4414\ - I I u L .. .i fl ' : u I : u TECHNIQUES FOR SUSITNA COST CONTROL 0 EMPHASIS ON "HIGH CONFIDENCE" ESTIMATE 0 INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE 0 EARLY CM INVOLVEMENT 0 MAXIMUM PRE-CONSTRUCTION SITE INVESTIGATION 0 100% DESIGN PRIOR TO BIDDING 0 RIGOROUS CHANGE CONTROL PROCEDURE 0 MASTER LABOR AGREEMENT o FIRM FIXED-PRICE CONTRACTS 28 ' .. ,. _,...,-~~""">-"""'""""---·-"--"'f,_,._,~_....._ ·-·- l f l I l CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT INVOLVEMENT 0 CONSTRUCTABILITY REVIEWS 0 LOGISTICS AND CONSTRUCTION FACILITIES-PLANNING 0 CONTRACT PACKAGING 0 LABOR AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS . .J 0 CONTRACTOR TYPE COST ESTIJ11ATES ~- 0 CHANGE CONTROL ' LJ 29 POWER AUTHORITY RECOMMENDATIONS APRIL 1982 0 CONTINUE PER-CONSTRUCTION DEVELOPMENTAL EFFORTS 0 SUBMIT A FERC LICENSE APPLICATION 0 INITIA'rE DESIGN ' t .30