HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA2560POPULATION GROWTH AND MOVEMENT PATTERNS OF THE
NELCHINA CARIBOU HERD
J. E. Hemming
U. S. Bureau of Land Management
Anchorage, Alaska
ABSTRACT--The Nelchina caribou herd of south central Alaska has reached
two peaks in the last 100 years, one in the mid-1800's and another in the early
1960's. The herd declined for about 70 years following the first peak, and then
increased at a geometric rate from 194 7 to 1962. As caribou (Rangifer tarandus
granti) numbers increased, the frequency of shifts in range use and seasonal
splitting increased, and the herd expanded its range. Conversely, as numbers
decreased, the area occupied by the herd contracted toward the traditional calving
area. The time between successive population peaks plus a relatively small area of
occupancy no doubt allowed optimum recovery on many previously overused
ranges. At the present time the population is declining. Distribution and
movement patterns can be used as indicators of the relative abundance of caribou
herds.
The Nelchina herd of south central Alaska ranges over the Copper River and Upper
Susitna River basins and adjacent mountains. This is a diversified area of rugged,
glacier-capped mountains, rolling uplands and broad forested plains. Four mountain ranges
form the herd boundaries: the Alaska Range on the north, the Chugach Mountains on the
south, the Talkeetna Mountains on the west and the Wrangell Mountains on the east. Calving
occurs on the eastern slopes of the Talkeetna Mountains. Like other herds of Alaskan
caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) movements of the Nelchina herd center on traditional
calving grounds regardless of population status. This herd is not isolated from neighboring
populations and has at times shared winter ranges with portions of the Delta, Fortymile,
McKinley and Mentasta herds. This paper describes the population changes and spatial
relationships of this caribou herd from the mid-1800's to the present time.
PROCEDURES
Between 1948 and 1958, the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service provided regular caribou
census data to the Territorial Government. After Alaska achieved statehood in 1959, the
responsibility for caribou research was assumed by the State of Alaska Department of Fish
and Game.
Population estimates were obtained by aerial transect sampling from 1948 to 1955
(Watson and Scott, 1956), by extrapolation from 1956 to 1961 (Skoog, 1968), by aerial
stratified random sampling in 1962 (Siniff and Skoog, 1964) and by aerial photo-direct
count techniques in 1967 (Hemming and Glenn, 1968).
For the period prior to 1948, information concerning the general distribution of the
Nelchina herd was gleaned from the literature and from interviews with long-time bush
pilots, guides and local residents. In recent years seasonal movements were recorded by
aerial surveys at monthly intervals. The location, direction of movement, trail patterns and
approximate numbers of caribou were recorded on topographic maps at a scale of
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I: 250,000. Annual movements were determined by summarizing data from monthly
surveys.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Even though the historical record is fragmentary, it was possible to piece together the
early population status and range of the herd. Sometime between 1848 and 1885, the herd
was very abundant and ranged from the Talkeetna Mountains eastward over the entire
Copper River Basin (Skoog, 1968). Suitable winter habitat must have been well saturated
with caribou because even marginal areas, such as the Chitina River Valley that regularly
receives heavy accumulations of snow, were utilized (Glenn and Abercrombie, 1899; Allen,
1900; Rohn, 1900). By 1885 only a few caribou moved as far as the Chitina and Copper
River Valleys (Allen, 1900). At the turn of the century it was obvious that the herd was
decreasing, and the remaining animals were found in ever closer proximity to the Talkeetna
Mountains (Glenn and Abercrombie, 1899;Glenn, 1900; Mendenhall, 1900;0sgood, 1901).
The status of the Nelchina herd during the early 1900's is somewhat confusing because
of the seasonal influx of caribou from the then abundant McKinley and Fortymile caribou
herds (Skoog, 1968). However, remnants of the Nelchina herd apparently remained mostly
within the Talkeetna Mountains from 1900 to 1945 (Osgood, 1901; Capps, 1927; Alaska
Game Commission, 1925-1948). The first aerial count was made in November, 1948, but
the accuracy was questionable due to uneven distribution of caribou and the inexperience of
observers. Initial tallies resulted in a population estimate of 4,500 to 5,000 animals.
However, continued refinement of aerial census techniques in the succeeding seven years
revealed that the original estimate probably accounted for only about one-half of the
animals present. Extrapolation backward from 195 5 to 1948 yielded a revised population
estimate of about I 0,000 caribou for 1948 (Watson and Scott, 1956).
In 1950 the herd occupied an area of about 16,000 km 2 (10,000 mi 2 ) and had begun
to increase (Table I).
TABLE !.--Population estimates of the Nelchina caribou herd.
Year Herd size** Source
1948 10,000 Watson and Scott, 1956
1956* 45,000 Watson and Scott, 1956
1957 48,000 Skoog, 1968
1958 53,000 Skoog, 1968
1959 59,000 Skoog, 1968
1960 64,000 Skoog, 1968
1961 69,000 Skoog, 1968
1962* 71,000 Sin iff and Skoog, 1964
1967* 46,000 Hemming and Glenn, 1968
*Years when census was conducted.
**All estimates exclude calves.
The cow-calf segment began to split seasonally into two or more groups after 1955. In
succeeding years the range of the herd expanded as numbers increased, and by 1960 the
herd utilized an area of about 52,000 km 2 (20,000 mi 2 ). As a result of field studies in 1961
and 1962 Skog (1963a) stated, "The range is beginning to show signs of deterioration and
163
there is some indication that carrying capacity has been reached."
Shifts in winter range use became increasingly common while areas of summer use
remained essentially unchanged. Signs of emigration were observed each winter from 1962
to 1965 (Skoog, l963a; Skoog, 1963b; Skoog, 1964; Lentfer, 1965; McGowan, 1966;
Glenn, 1967). The annual distance traveled by the Nelchina herd increased from 600 km to
1,580 km (370 mi to 980 mi) between 1955 and 1964 (Skoog, 1968).
The census of 1967 revealed that the population had started to decline. Even though
no census has been completed since 1967, field studies have suggested a continuous
downward trend.
In order to analyze the relationship between caribou numbers and patterns of
movement, I constructed a population growth curve (Fig. l ). The size of the Nelchina herd
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Fig. I.--Population growth of the Nelchina caribou herd. The solid line represents
documented population growth. The dotted line represents assumed population growth.
Lower curve, population growth curve (dashed line) of the St. Matthew Island reindeer herd
(from Klein, 1968).
in the mid-1800's could not be determined. However, due to the similarities of herd
distribution in the 1860's and 1960's, i.e., caribou saturated suitable habitat in the Copper
and Susitna River basins during both periods (Figs. 2 and 3), it was assumed that total
numbers must have been quite similar.
One of the most interesting aspects of the population growth curve is the time between
164
Fig. 2.--Range of the Nelchina caribou herd 1960-1970.
the two peaks. In the lower portion of the curve the population was relatively small and vast
portions of the Copper River Basin were unoccupied by caribou (Fig. 4). With caribou
distribution restricted for over 50 years, major portions of the range undoubtedly recovered
from previous periods of heavy use. Palmer and Rouse ( 1 945) concluded that 20 to 40 years
are required for depleted lichen ranges to return to a robust condition.
Caribou appear to be unique among cervids in demonstrating oscillations with a time
periodicity approaching 100 years. This is not to imply that caribou have a fixed cycle
frequency. Any caribou population may be subject to random environmental factors that
could cause the oscillations of the population to vary in both wavelength and amplitude.
For example, the seasonal influx of large numbers of caribou from the McKinley and
Fortymile herds in the early 1900's may have delayed the increase of the Nelchina herd by
altering plant succession on portions of its range. Such shifts into vacant ranges of adjacent
populations have also occurred in other areas. The Porcupine caribou herd of the eastern
Brooks Range shifted into the range of the Arctic caribou herd in the early 1900's
(Harrison, 1908; Porsild, 1945). This occurred at a time when the Arctic herd was greatly
reduced and remained throughout the year in a small portion of the western Brooks Range
(Birch, pers. comm.; Skoog, 1968). Around 1920 the Porcupine herd shifted eastward and
later as the Arctic herd increased it expanded into the central Brooks Range again
(Hemming, 1971 ).
With vast areas of productive caribou habitat, population growth and dispersal can
proceed for long periods of time. In areas where the total available habitat is limited, initial
165
Fig. 3.--Approximate range of the Nelchina caribou herd 1848-1885. Prepared from
descriptions of Glenn and Abercrombie ( 1899), Allen ( 1900), Rohn ( 1900) and Skoog
(1968).
population growth can be expected to be quite similar to that of caribou herds with more
open ranges, as suggested in Figure 1. However, if saturation time is short because of small
areas of suitable habitat and rigid boundaries, social and feeding pressures can be relieved
only temporarily by mechanisms of seasonal segregation, dispersal and emigration.
A classic example of the response of reindeer to a restricted range was described by
Klein (1968) from his studies of an introduced reindeer population on St. Matthew Island in
the Bering Sea.
St. Matthew Island has a land area of only 332 km 2 (128 mi 2 ) compared with the
Copper River-Upper Susitna River basins that encompass over 52,000 km 2 (20,000 mF)
and the latter contains many potential overflow areas. Twenty-nine reindeer were
introduced to St. Matthew Island in 1944. The herd reached a peak of 6,000 in the summer
of 1963 and a die-off the following winter reduced the herd to 50 animals. The St. Matthew
reindeer population growth curve (Fig. 1) illustrates the similarity of initial herd growth
with that of the Nelchina herd. A similar pattern of population growth and decline was
reported on the Pribilof Islands by Scheffer ( 1951 ).
166
Fig. 4.--Approximate range of the Nelchina caribou herd 1900-1945. Prepared from
descriptions of Glenn (1900), Mendenhall (1900), Osgood (1901 ), Capps (1927) and Alaska
Game Commission (1925-1948).
CONCLUSIONS
Movements of the Nelchina caribou herd during the most recent period of increase and
decrease support the hypothesis that caribou have become adapted to alpine and arctic
tundra habitat through the mechanism of long-term oscillation and flexible 'home range'
that allows adequate time for recovery of slow-growing forage species between periods of
caribou abundance.
The ultimate size reached by a caribou herd depends on the amount of suitable habitat
available and the status of adjacent populations, e.g., if the Delta, Fortymile and McKinley
caribou herds would have had abundant populations in the early 1960's, the Nelchina herd
may not have reached a peak of 69,000 animals.
The nomadic habit of caribou is of value in taking it from areas where food is scarce
and thereby increasing its chances of finding areas where food is abundant. The mechanisms
of emigration and dispersion function adequately where unlimited alternative food sources
are available. The ability to move has an extremely important modifying influence on
population growth. However, when range carrying capacity is exceeded, the population
begins to decline as we have observed twice in the Nelchina herd during the last 100 years.
167
Assuming the Nelchina herd is typical of other herds on the Alaska mainland, the total
range occupied by a herd during any given year should reflect the relative abundance of the
population.
The current decline of the Nelchina herd appears inevitable and natural, but the
developments of man may control the magnitude of oscillations and movements in the
future.
LITERATURE CITED
Alaska Game Commission. 1925-1948. Annual reports of the Executive Officer to the
Alaska Game Commission. U. S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Juneau, Alaska.
Allen, H. T. 1900. Report of a military reconnaissance in Alaska, made in 1885 by Lieut.
Henry T. Allen, 2nd U. S. Cavalry, with illustration and maps of the route traversed.
Pp. 409-494, in Compilation of Narratives of Explorations in Alaska. U. S. Senate,
Comm. on Military Affairs, Washington, D. C., 856 pp.
Capps, S. R. 1927. Geology of the Upper Matanuska Valley, Alaska. U. S. Geol. Survey
Bull., 791:1-92.
Glenn, E. F. 1900. Alaska--1899. Cooks Inlet exploring expedition. Pp. 711-724, in
Compilation of Narratives of Explorations in Alaska. U. S. Senate, Comm. on Military
Affairs, Washington, D. C., 856 pp.
Glenn, E. F., and W. R. Abercrombie. 1899. Reports of explorations in the Territory of
Alaska, 1898. U. S. Adjutant-General's Office, Military Information Division,
Washington, D. C., 464 pp.
Glenn, L. P. 1967. Caribou report. Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Fed. Aid in Wildl.
Restoration. Project W-15-R-1 and W-15-R-2, Juneau, 36 pp.
Harrison, A. H. 1908. In search of a polar continent. Musson Book Co., Toronto, 292 pp.
Hemming, J. E. 1971. Distribution and movement patterns of caribou in Alaska. Alaska
Dept. of Fish and Game, Tech. Bull. No. l, Juneau, 60 pp.
Hemming, J. E., and L. P. Glenn. 1968. Caribou report. Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game,
Fed. Aid in Wildl. Restoration. Project W-15-R-2, Juneau, 41 pp.
Klein, D. R. 1968. The introduction, increase and crash of reindeer on St. Matthew Island.
J. Wildl. Mgmt., 32:350-367.
Lentfer, J. 1965. Caribou report. Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Fed. Aid in Wildl.
Restoration. Project W-6-R-5,6, Juneau, 20 pp.
McGowan, T. A. 1966. Caribou report. Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Fed. Aid in Wildl.
Restoration. Project W-6-R-6 and W-15-R-1, Juneau, 19 pp.
Mendenhall, W. C. 1900. A reconnaissance from Resurrection Bay to the Tanana River,
Alaska, in 1898. U.S. Geol. Survey, Annual Rpt., 20(7):265-340.
Osgood, W. H. 1901. Natural history of Cook Inlet region, Alaska. N. Amer. Fauna Ser.,
21:51-87.
Palmer, L. J., and C. H. Rouse. 1945. Study of the Alaska tundra with reference to its
reactions to reindeer and other grazing. U. S. Dept. of Interior, Res. Rpt. 10,
Washington, D. C., 48 pp.
Porsild, A. E. 1945. Mammals of the MacKenzie Delta. Can. Field Nat., 59:4-22.
Rohn, 0. 1900. A reconnaissance of the Chitina River and the Skolai Mountains, Alaska. U.
S. Geol. Survey, Annual Rpt., 21(2):393-440.
Scheffer, V. B. 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer herd. Sci. Monthly, 73:356-362.
Siniff, D. B., and R. 0. Skoog. 1964. Aerial censusing of caribou using stratified random
sampling. J. Wildl. Mgmt., 28:391-401.
Skoog, R. 0. 1963a. Caribou investigations. Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Fed. Aid in
168
Wildl. Restoration. Project W-6-R-3, Juneau, 89 pp.
-----. 1963b. Caribou report. Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Fed. Aid in Wildl.
Restoration. Project W-6-R-4, Juneau, 31 pp.
-----. 1964. Caribou report. Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game, Fed. Aid in Wildl.
Restoration. Project W-6-R-5, Juneau, 26 pp.
-----. 1968. Ecology of the caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) in Alaska. Ph.D. Thesis,
Univ. California, Berkeley, 699 pp.
Watson, G. W., and R. F. Scott. 1956. Aerial censusing of the Nelchina caribou herd. Trans.
N. Amer. Wildl. Conf., 21:499-510.
169
ARLIS
PROCEEDINGS OF THE
FIRST INTERNATIONAL REINDEER
AND CARIBOU SYMPOSIUM
9-11 AUGUST 1972
UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA
FAIRBANKS, ALASKA
Edited by:
Alaska Resources
Library & Information Services
Anchorage Alaska
JACK R. LUICK
PETER C. LENT
DAVID R. KLEIN
ROBERT G. WHITE
Biological Papers of tba UnivEi!rsitv Q{ Al.:lska
Special Report Number September, 1975
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