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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA2627[X]£00~£ 0 1!00£!.\~@ $Jsitna Joint Venture Document Number Plene Return To DOCUMENT CON T ROL Cllfllllllll RESPONSE TO COMMENTS BY HARZA-EBASCO SUSITNA JOINT VENTURE ON AEIDC'S REPORT ENTITLED "STREAM FLOW AND TEMPERATURE MODELING IN THE SUSITNA BASIN, ALASKA." Cllfllllllll By: AEIDC 1983 TK 1425 .S8 A23 no.2627 Response to Comments by Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture on AEIDC's Report Entitled "Stream Flow and Temperature Modeling in the Susitna Basin, Alaska" This document is numbered "APA 2627", and is the edition not containing original comments. Alaska Resources Library and Information Services (ARLIS) is providing this table of contents. Table of Contents Response to general comments. Response to specific comments. Attachment 1 - SNTEMP mathematical model description. Attachment 2 - Heat flux components for average mainstem Susitna conditions. Attachment 3 - Weather wizard data. Attachment 4 - Daily Indian River temperatures versus Devil Canyon air temperatures. Cllfllfllll( RESPONSE TO GENERAL COMMENTS Cllfltfmlr We feel that, although the AEIDC report entitled "Stream Flow and Temperature Modeling in the Suai.tna Basin, Alaska" is written for a technical audience, a detailed description of the SNTEMP model would be unnecessary since the temperature model description is available from the !nat ~am Flow Group , U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (the reference Theurer et al. 1983 in the draft report). The description is lengthy and its inclusion in the AEIDC report would detract from the purpose of the report: a description of the modifications of the stream temperature model, the techniques used for data genesis, and the methods employed fo r validation and calibration. Attachment 1 of this memo is a copy of the mathematical model description frO. a draft of the Theurer et al. 1983 paper which we hope will be useful in providing background to the AEIDC report. The decision to investigate other methods of determining subbasin flow contributions was made at a March 15, 1983, mee t ing between Harza-Ebasco and AEIDC personnel. We agreed t hen to examine more sophisticated approaches which included the effects of precipitation distribution, and to respond in a letter report to Dr. B.K. Lee in April. The decision to test the three weighting methods using a large set of subbasins rather than one or two individual subbasins was based on a number of reasons. The resolution of the precipitation and water yield distribution maps used to determine weighting coefficients are low enough to allow substantial miscalculation of coefficients for any single subbasin. By testing on a composite set of subbasins, higher basinwide accuracy would be expected. Additionally the largest set of flow data available to test these coefficients was on the mainstem river rather than on individual tributaries . -1- CDifllllllll Th i s i s important as the weighting co effic ients were derived from maps repr esenting average trends ; anomalous runoff even ts on small subbasins could easily lead to unrepresentative short-term flow records . Finally, delineation and planimetry o.f all subbasins was necessary· for watershed area weighting. Once this and the additional work transferring precipitation and water yield isopleths onto the base map was done, little extra time was required to calculate water yield and precipitation coefficients for all subbasins. As described later in this memo, alternate techniques could be used in predicting tributary temperatures. The technique chosen should be physically based to insure reasonable predictions when the model is used to extrapolate tributary t emperatures. We have discovered that the tributaries have a major influence on the mainstem temperature in simulations of postproject conditions. We also feel that accurate tributary temperature predictions may be neces sary to a ddress thermal shock effects on spawners traveling from the mainstem into the tributaries. We are presently organizing the data necessary to simulate daily stream temperatures. Our initial effort will be validation of the stream tempera ture model predictions using 1982 data. A coordinated approach will be necessary for determining which periods should be simulated and for defining the purpose of daily simulations. p. 1, para. 2 RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC COMMENTS Note that ADF&G and USFWS have undertaken studies of temperature effects on salmonid egg incubation. -2- The introduction to this temperature report paper was not intended to be all inclusive concerning the literature on temperature effects on the various fish life stages. We are aware of t he studies being done by ADF&G and USFWS. Their respective reports are due out during the month of August 1983 and we will utilize the informat i on as it becomes available. p. 8, Par. 1 and p. 11, Pa r. 2 Since subjectiveness is involved in areal precipitation weighting (method 2), is using this method more appropriate than using the drainage area method? Since Method (2) yields a higher Watana discharge, we recommend this method not be used at this time . The high discharge implies additional econamic benefits. For economic runs, we need to be conservative. However, a final decision on the sele ted method will be made by H/E in the near future. The subjectiveness of the precipitation weighting coefficients is d\le both to the methods used to arrive at those coefficients from the precipitation distribution map, and to the inherent "art" i nvolved in developing that isohyetal map from the paucity of data available for the Susitna basin. Method 2 was chosen solely on the merit of its better agreement in predicting Watana streamf l ows than the other two methods. l.Je think this method has merit and could be improved by refining the basin isohyetal map with the additional data that is being collected. However, in the short term, we agree that the simpler drainage area method can be used. It should be clarified, though, that no matter: which method is used, we have been running SNTEMP using the available monthly data sets provided in Exhibit E (ACRES 1983) (with the exception of the Sunshine data set). Flows at Watana (or at Devil Canyon for the two-dam scenario) and at Gold Creek are input to the water balance program , and are thus consistent with those used by ACRES and Harza-Ebasco. It is only the apportionment of water between gage sites that differs etween t hese methods. -3- p. 9, Fig. 3 Mean annual water yield for several subbasins appears to be greater than the mean annual precipitat i on (Tsusena, Fog, Devil, Chin-Chee, Portage). This is true. Mean annual precipitation values were developed using the map of Wise (1977), and mean annual water-yield values using the map of Evan Merril of the Soil Conservation Service (1982). These numbers are clearly in dispute. This figure was included to demonstrate the differences between those weighting methods. p. 10, Bottom Calculate d C for Method (1) is 0.5104. ACRES used 0.515. Why Is there a difference? Were these areas replanimetered? The basin between Cantwell and Gold Creek was divided into ten subbasins (Clarence through Indian, Figure 4 of the draft report), four upstream from the Watana dam site, and six downstream. The area of each subbasin was found by planimetry; the areas of the basin above and t he basin below Watana were arrived at by summing the appropriate subbasin areas. Discrepancies in basin area measurements are expected when those basins are delineated and planimetered independently. Moreover, our pro.:edure incorporates possible errors from a number of individual planimetry measurements, and compounding errors can occur. However, the agreement of these two figures is to less than one-half percent (0.0046) of the area between Cantwell and Gold Creek. This difference corresponds to an area less than 9 mi 2 in a watershed (defined at Watana) larger than 5000 m1 2 • -4- Once again nd most importantly, these coefficients are defined for the Cantwell to Gold Creek basin. 'When running SNTE){P, only the flow ap~ortionment between basin sites having input data is affected. Thus mainstem f lows at Watana. Gold Creek and Susitna Station are consistent with those flows used by other groups. p. 18, Par. 1 We suggest us ng solar radiation measurements when available rather than calculated values. We would also like to see daily comparisons of observed versus computed solar radiation. Please provide descriptions of the six SNTEMP submodels. We have decided to use pr edicted solar radiation rather than observed values so that we would be able to simulate water temperatures for perio.ds when there was no data co llected. This is useful for predicting average and extreme conditir'!la .. :~!.ch did not necessarily occur during the 1980 to 1982 periods. We have made an effort to calibrate the solar model to observed solar radiation data to make our predictions as representative as possible. As Figure 22 indica tes predicted solar radiation values are represe tative of bas in for monthly average conditions. This figure demonstrates a tendency to overpredict Watana and underpredict Devil Canyon insolations. Thus. the solar model is predicting an average basin insolation. Since the current implementation of SNTEMP allows for only one meteorc · gical data station, basin average solar radiations would have to be estimated from alternative means or · area weighted averages. The solar JDOdel essentially averages conditions for us. Calculated solar radiation is also necessary for simulating topographic shade effects. The solar model track~ the sun during the day and accounts for the time the stream surface is in shade due to the adjacent topography. -s- We will produce a plot similar to Figure 22 but with daily values if it becomes necessary to predict daily water temperatures. Attachment 1 contains pertinent pa a from the paper by Theurer et al. (1983) which describes the six SNTEHP submod~ s. These pages Will be useful in clarifying some of the comments to other section o f AEIDC's draft flow and temperature report. p. 19, Bottom More discussion on heat flux would be helpful. Statements regarding the relative importance of heat inputs and outputs should be made. Please provide all heat sources and sinks considered. Attachment 1 discussed in the previous response should clarify how the . heat flux components (atmospheric, t o.,ographic, and vegetative radiation; so~.ar radiation; evaporation; free and forced convection; stream friction; stream bed conduction; and water back radiation) are simulated by SNTEHP. We are working on a graphic presentation to demonstrate the values of the individual heat flux compo nents for average mont h ly conditions but do not feel it will be available for the final version of this report. Preliminary plots of the heat flux components are presented in Attachment 2. The relatively high friction heat input is interesting and will probably be a major influence in f all and winter simulations. p. 20 . In Eq. (9), how wasT (Equilibrium temperature) estimated? What are !he parameter values of K1 and K2? The values of the equilibrium temperature (Te) and 1st (K 1) and 2nd (K 2) thermal exchange coefficients are computed within SNTEMP. To visualize -6- the technique used, it is necessary to realize that the net beat flux (EH) is an analytical but nonlinear function of the stream temperature (due to the back radiation, evaporation, and convection beat components); i.e. tB • where t is w stream temperature. When stream temp er ture equals equilibrium temperature, the net beat flux is zero (tH • f (T •T ) • 0). w e Newton's method is used to iterate to the equilibrium temperature with the air temperature being the initial estimate of Te. The values for K1 and K2 follow since the first and second derivations of the beat flux are also analytical functions and: d{t'H ) d~ dfK • 1 2 • Kl ~ ~ dT T • T w w w w e d2 (tH) d2f d 2f • K2 K2 • K2 dT 2 dT 2 dT 2 T • T w w w w e Average values of Te' K1 , and K2 will be presented in a subsequent report which will include 1983 data/SNTEMP simulation validation. p.21 There are potential problems with using temperature lapse rat es at Fairbanks and Anchorage. Both sites are subject to temper~ture inversions because of topography. This may not occur along the Susitna River. We recommend that the existing Weather Wizard data be reviewed. -7- No long term upper air data are available for Talkeetna. Anchorage and Fairbanks vertical temperature (and humidity) data averaged over a six-year period (1968, 1969, 1970, 1980, 1981, and 1982) are felt to be the best available representation of verti~al air temperature profiles for the Susitna River basin. Examination of numerous winter daily synoptic weather maps for surface, 850 mb, and 500 mb levels verifies the assumption that inversion strength and thickness in the Susitna River basin are roughly halfway between those observed in Anchorage and Fairbanks. The Susitna basin is surrounded by mountains on the north, east and west. To the south it is open to the Cook Inlet and Gulf of Alaska. In winter, the Alaska range blocks most low level interior air from reaching and influencing the Susitna basin and Anchorage. However, radiative processes in concer~ wfth topography are responsible for producing a strong, well documented low level inversion in the Susitna valley (Comiskey, pers. co111111.). This inversion is not as severe as in Fairbanks, but more severe than in Anchorage. Data from both stations are retained since upper air temperatures for all three regions are relatively uniform. Topographic variability will introduce loc 1 systematic error in the vertical profiles. Cold air flows downhill where radiative cooling in the valleys further reduces air temperatures. Weather Wizard data gathered at stations wi bin the basin may reflect highly localized weather activity. Within the mountain walls vertica and lateral air mass extent and movement is limited compared to that of the synoptic scale events governing the major air mass properties. Local topographic effects cannot be reliably incorporated into the larger scale vertical lapse rate regime. -8- This strong inversion is not just a statewide phenomena, but occurs throughout the high latitudes in winter. Due to the small heat capacity of the land surface its temperature is highly dependent upon absorption of solar radiation. Minimal radiation is absorbed in Alaaka (i.e., the Susitna River basin) in winter for the following four reasons: (1) a high albedo, (2) short hours of daylight, (3) the oblique angle of the sun's rays, and (4) screening by clouds of ultraviolet rays. Consequently, a warm maritime air mass flowing from the North Pacific or Bering Sea over Alaska will be strongly cooled at the earth's surface. When subsequent air masses move onshore they are forced to flow aloft by the previously cooled. dense stable surface layer. Daytime heating at the earth's surface is usually not strong enough to destroy the inversion. Over a 24-hour cycle no well-defined mixed layer remains and fluxes of latent and sensible heat are very small. The inversion's longevity is enhanced whe n the wind speeds are low and corresponding momentum trancfer is weak. Talkeetna is typified by comparatively low average wind speeds, on the order of 5 mph during the winter months. A single strong wind event can disperse the inversion temporarily; however, it will occur frequently each winter and is considered a semi-permanent feature. Translocating average temperatur e profiles from Anchorage and Fairbanks in the spring, summer, and fall to the Susitna River basin is well within acceptable limits. The temperature profiles generated by this method fall precis.ely within the . moist adiabatic lapse rate, as predicted by standard theory. The temperature data gathered from upper air National Weather Service radiosonde instruments is highly correlated with temperatures measured in the basin by the Weather Wizard. This argument further substantiates use of large scale data to predict local temperature patterns. -9- p.24, Par. 4 How have we demonstrated that t opographic shading has an important influence on the Susitna River? While we do not dispute this, we would like to see this verified with a sensitivity run. Our statement is in error since we have not demonstrated that topographic shading has an important influence on Susitna stream temperatures. Initial sensitivity simulations without to agraphic shade have shown that the corresponding increase in solar radiation has only a small effect on the stream t snperatures. The significance of the shade effects bas only been tested for average natural June through September conditions where an increase of less than 0. 2 C was simulated without shade from Cantwell to S · shine. Based on the solar path plots in Appendix A of the draft report, we would expect that the shading effects in other months would be greater but still relatively small. The wording of this paragraph will be changed to reflect the new knowledge gained from this sensitivity study. p. 27 , Par. 2 Stream surface area is necessary to compute heat flux. According to Figure 26, we are considering only ten (10) reaches. How representative are these reaches for determining stream width and hence surface areas for the river segment between Watana and Sunshine? While Append ix B illustrates the representativ eness of the ten (10) reaches, it appears t hat we may have l ost some of the refinement of the Acres model with its a pproximately sixty (60) reaches. We feel that increasing the number of simulated reaches would improve the representativeness of t he stream temperature model as would any increase in data detail. Ba sed on our familiarity with SNTEMP, we did not originally feel that this many reaches were necessary. Nevertheless, we can increase the number of reaches for simulation purposes; the data i s already available and the only increase in the client's costs will be the manpower to add them to SNTEMP data files and the increased computa t ional time . -10- We are not familiar with the ACRES stream temperature model and do not know the model's stream width or hydraulic data requirements. p. 29, Par. 1 To compute daily minimum and maximum tmperatures, we suggest the use of HEC-2 velocit i s r a h er than obtaining Manning's n values to compute s t ream velocities. To reduce client costs, we must be conscious of the information that is available and no t redo computations wh .re they are not warranted. There would be two objections to using HEC-2 velocities as input to SNTEMP: ( 1) HEC-2 simulations would be required for all water temperature simulations where the minimum and maximum water temperatures were desired; and (2) SNTEMP would have to be modified to accept velocities. Velocity input is not curren tly necessary to .m SNTEMP for minimum and maximum temperatures since it is computed internally. This allows us to. use SNTEMP for simulating any i ~--free period from 1968 to 1982 (or later, when the required data are r eceived). Thus, we can determine the extreme meteorological/fl ow periods for simulating maximum and minimum average daily temperatures and the diurnal variati on around these extreme daily t emperatures. If the HEC-2 velocity estimates are required, this flexibility would be lost. If the Susitna Aquatic Impact Study Team could agree on the periods for minimum and maximum temp erature predictions , this first problem could be eliminated. Modifying SNTEMP to accept velocitie s , howeve r , would be a major undertaking. The explanation for this would be lengthy; we would prefer to discuss this potential modification at a technical meet ing to explain the amount of work necessary and to help decide if SNTEHP should be modified or alternate techniques used. -11- Figure 12 This figure i s xcellent. It should probably be expanded to include the months of May and October. We agree that Figure 12 is bo t h useful and usable ~nd should be expanded to include May and October data as well as 1983 data. However, due to budgetary and time constraints , we will not be able to revise this figure until after the October 14 report. p. 39, Par 3 We suggest that AEIDC discontinue its literature search for techniques to improve the resolution of the (ground temperature) model. This is not an intensive literature search. We are limiting our search to the journals and reports we normally read within the course of our professional maintenance and to conversations with other professionals who may have experience and knowledge of lateral flows and temperature in general and Susitna conditions specifically. The last sentence of this paragraph will be replaced with 1 AEIDC believes this ~del currently provides the best available approximation of the physical conditions existing in the Susitna basin and will be applied without validation until better estimates of existing conditions are obtained." p. 40, Par 2 I s the Talkeetna climate station representative of conditions further north in the basin? Presumably Fig. 19 is a comparison of monthly observed versus precicted which appears to be a good comparison. However, Fig. 19 does not show the comparison of Talkeetna temperatures with other basin temperatures. Thus, if Talkeetna data are to be ~~ed in the model, are they representative of basin cot'.ditions? -12- Talkeetna climate data would not be representative of conditions within the basin if applied without adjustment. The last two sentences of this paragraph will be changed to "This period of record allows stream temperature simulati ons under extreme and normal meteorology once these data a re adjusted to better repres~nt conditions throughout the Susitna basin. We used meteorologic data collected specifically for the Susitna e tudy to validate this meteorologic adjustment and the solar model predictions." We hope this will clarify that we are not blindly applying Talke e t n a data without adjustmen t. Apparently Figure 19 bas been misunderstood. The predicted temperatures are based on observed temperatures at Talkeetna and the laps rates which we have developed (Figure 7 in the report). Given the observed temperature at the Talkeetna elevation , the lapse rate equations are used to predict temperatures at any elevation. The air temperatures predicted for the elevations of the Sherman, Devil Canyon, Watana, and Kosina Weather Wizards were compared to the air temper tures observed by R&M (Figure 19 in the report). p. 41, Bottom Since monthly average wind speeds are used in the model, we fail to see th justification for obtaining wind speeds directly over the water surface. We could understand this for a lake, but for a river? A·s Figure 21 suggests, the wind speed data collec ted at Ta lkeetna represents average basin wind as collected at the four R&M sites (at least the data at Talkeetna is not extremely different). What these wind spee~ data represent, however, is not fully understood. The evaporative and convective heat flux is driven by local (2 m above t he water surface) wind speeds. The Watana, Devil Canyon, and Kosina stations are located :1igh above the wa ter -13- surface ( 3 we understand, we have not visited the sites). This implies that the d t a collect ed do not meet the model's require111ents; however, we agree r that it is no t necessary to collect additiona l data if this would be very expens ive. In ou r initial conversation with Jeff Coffin of R&M Consultants, we inquired if it would be possible to obtain this data easily as part of their existing collect ion effort. He felt it would be possible. A return cal from Steve Bredthauer informed us that equipment necessary to collect this data was not available and would have to be purchased. Our response was that t is data would improve our understanding of in-canyon winds but wou l d not be necessary at the expense envisioned. We have replaced this la t sentence on Page 41 with "Since it appears to be impr ctical to collect wind speed data within the canyons below the existing meteorological deta sit"ea (Bredthauer 1983), the wind speed data collected at Talkeetna will be used as repr esentative of average basin winds." p. 44 Top figure. Is the value (9.3° C predicted, 2° C observed) for Watana correct? SNTEMP did pr {1 ct an air temperature of 9. 3 C and an average air temperature of 2 C was observed for Augus t 1981 at the Wat ana weather station. The observed Watana data is obviously in error (e.g., a temperat ure of -30.9 C was recorded for 15 August 1981) and p~obably should not have been included for v alidation of the .air temperature lapse mode l in this plot. As stated in the report, none of the Weather Wizard data were used in the water temperature simulations but are presented as a v alidation of the adjustment of the observed Talkeetna data. Careful review of the Weather Wizard data (especially humid~ties) would be nece ssary if these data were to be used in -14- water temperature simulations. This data point will be remo v ed from the plot in the final draft. p. 45, 46 There appears t~be something seriously wrong here. We believe more work is necessary to underst and what the problem is. For example, how do the observed relative humidities at the stations compare with one another? The large variability in observed Weadler Wizard data gives rise to doubts of its relia ility. Data which are smoothed by monthly averaging are not expected to exhibit the year to year range of humidities which was observed at the Weather Wizard stations. The entire data set is characterized by irregular large annual changes in average relative humidities on the ord~r of 30% to 40%. Talkeetna relative humidity values, measured by the National Weather Service, are cons1.stently greater by approximately 20% throughout the data. Talkeetna values are in agreement with the large scale picture generated by averaged Anchorage and Fairbanks data. For this reason, and those enumerated on Page 41 in the draft report, AEIDC maintains that the pre dictive scheme derived for input into the stream temperature model is the best representation of relative humidity with height for input in the surface flux calculati~ns. Five sample figures from the R&M raw data are presented for inspection (Attachment 3). Figures 1 and 2 present summer (June 1981) and winter (November 1980) situations where the correlation betwe en Weather Wizard data at two stations is illustrated . In both instances the relative humidity data is in good agreement from one station to another. These were chosen as exemplary months; they are not, however, typical. Figure 3 indicates two common errors, missing days of data and an unvarying upper limit. Another common error discussed in the report is illustrated by Figure 4. Erratic -15- daily swings from zero to 100 percent exist throughout the data. Figure 5 illustrates simultaneous comparison of Watana Weather Wizard data and surface relative humidities measured at Talke t na by the National Weather Service. The correlation between the two is poor. Attempts to explain the erratic swings in the data (daily, monthly and annually) as highly localized topographic or microscale weather events is also unsatisfactory. OVer time, monthly averaging woul d smooth anomalies. However, a three-year average for each month still retains a high variability with elevation (see Figure 6, Attachment 3). From year to year topography requires that highly localized atmospheric events be fairly consistent, thereby giving rise to identifiable trends in the data. Such is not the case. AEIDC meteorologists concur that instrument calibration problem& ar~ the probable explanation for t he high variability in the data. The best way to verify these conclusions regarding the reliability of the relative humidity data collected in the Susitna basin would be to perform a spot calibration of the Weath er Wizards. A wet bulb-dry dry bulb sling psy chrometer could be carried to the remote wea t her stations where the relative humidities measured by each method can be compared. p. 51-54 The predicted temperatures in Appendix C generally indicate increasing temperature with distance downstream except for the Chulitna confluence. We are not convinced that the observed data show this. Thus, can we say the model is calibrated? To apply the model to postproject condition~ may not be valid. We have some problems in believing the observed data, especially the variation in downstream temperatures observed in August 1981, September 1981, and August 1982. We do not understand what would cause the types of variations ir.dicated unless there were tributary impacts which we ere not -16- considering. e feel, however, that we have made a thorough attempt at modeling tributary flows and temperatures. We are not thoroughly familiar with the techniques used by ADF&G to verify. and calibrate their thermograph&. Their techniques are not published in any Susitna reports. We recommend that data verification be performed. Wayne Dyok, H-E, has collected some longitudinal temperature data which tends to support the downstream increase in temperature which we have predicted. Wayne's effort vas helpful but does not identify which thermographs or data sets may be in error. Until faulty data sets are identified (if any) we do not feel we should attempt to increase the degree of fit of the model. As to applying the model to postproject conditions, we feel that, •t the very least, it is necessary that some initial estimates of project impacts be made at this time. It may be necessary to label these simulations as preliminary results until tempe rature data is verified. p. 55, Future Applications 1) Normal and extreme flow regimes for the 32-year record should be defined in coordination with H-E. (See general comments). Our intent here is to identify the natural range of flow regimes in the Susitna basin, not to necessaril y "define" representative flow years for more detailed study. We agree tha identifying such years should be done by AEIDC and H-E together, insuring the most thorough results for the efforts of each. p. 55 2) Please explain what is meant by "This will identify the area facing possible hydrologic/hydraulic impacts?" -17- If possible, we will determine the location downstream from the project where operational flows become statistically indistinguishable from natural flows. This will vary on a month-by-month basis. If project flows downstream from a given location are insignificantly different from natural flows, we reason that flow-related impacts must also be indistinguishable, and, therefore, need not be examined further. p. 55 3) Good, but do in coordination with H-E, as this is necessary for other models. We have met with Wayne Dyok of Harza-Ebasco and discussed our approach in simulating normal and extreme stream temperature changes. The periods we selected were not the same as the periods selected by Harza-Ebasco. Since ve bad a deadline to meet in producing a stream temperat re effects paper, there was insufficient time for a more coordinated approach . We feel that more coordination will be of mutual benefit in the future. p. 55 8) Techniques for improving the groundwater temperature should not be pursued at this time. We have found that the influence of the tributaries on the mainstem is significant, especially in postproject simulations. The distributed flow temperature model was developed to improve the tributary temperature predictions with a ph,sically reasonable model. There are other approaches to predicting tributary temperatures but the technique used will have to meet several requirements: (1) it must be general enough to apply to June-September periods without observed tributary temperatures, (2) it must be applicable to winter conditions for future ice simulations, and (3) any technique used cannot depend on more data than is available. The technique which you have -18- suggested (relating tributary temperatures to air temperatures) may be possible when the 1983 field data becomes available, although we would rec~nd a regression model based on C'omputed equilibrium temperatures. There is not enough monthly tributary data currently available for any regression approach. Daily air temperature and tributary te.perature data suggests a correlation (Att~cbaent 4 is a scattergraa of recorded Indian River temperatures versus air temperatures) but we believe that a regression model baaed on daily data would result in a tributary temperature model which would not be as capable as the distributed flow temperature model • . As you request, we will not pursue techniques for improving the distributed flow temperature model at this t1111e. This model will be used u is for all silL ations until the 1983 tributary teaperature data b~cOIIias available. When the 1983 data are available, we will look at possibl e regression models for predicting tributary temperatures. We will then select the beat approach. Harza-Ebasco's involvement in this selection process would be appreciated. -19- Cllfllllllll AttacbMnt 1 SNTEMP MATB!MATICAL MODEL DESCRIPTION INTRODUCTION This part is to explain each of the physical processes affecting instream w&ter temperatures and their mathematical descriptions so that the responsible engineer/scientist can understand the behavior of the model. It will enable the responsible engineer/scientist to determine the applicability of the model, the utility of linking the model with other models, and the validity of results. The instream water temperature model incor rates: (1) a complete solar model including both topographic and riparian vegetation shade; (Z) in adi a bat 1 c meteoro 1 ogi ca 1 correction mode 1 to account for the change in air temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure as a function of e 1 evat ion; ( 3) a comp 1 ete set of heat flux components to account for a 11 signif i cant heat sources; (4) a heat transport model to determine longitudinal water temperature changes; (5) regression models to smooth or complete known water temperature data sets at measured points for starting or interior validation/calibration temperatures; (6) a flow mixing model at tributary s junctions; and (7) calibration models to eliminate bia~ and/or reduce the probable errors at interior calibration nodes. 23 SOLAR RAD I ATION The solar radiation model has four parts: (l) extra-terrestrial radia- tion, (Z) correction for atmospheric conditions, (3) correction for cloud cover, and (4) correction for reflection from wate r s ur·race. The extra- terrestrial radiation, when corrected for both the atmosphere and cloud cover, predicts the average daily solar radiation received at the ground on a hori- zontal surface of unit area:-Therefore, it is the total amount of solar energy per unit area that projects onto a level surface in a 24-hour period. It is expressed as a constant rate of heat energy flux over a 24-hour period even though there is no sunshine at night and the actual solar radi.atfon varies from zero at sunrise and sunset to a maximum intensity at solar noon. EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL RADIATION The extra-terrestrial radiation at a site is a function of the latitude, general topographic features, and time of year. The general topographic features aff~ct the actual time of sunrise and sunset at a site. Therefore, the effect of so 1 ar s hading due to hills and canyon wa 11 s can be measured. The time · of year directly predicts the angle of the sun above or below the equator (declination) and the di stance between the earth and the sun (orbital position). Th l atitude is a measure of the angle between horizontal surface s along the same longitude at the equator and the site. ")If _, The extra-terr estr i a l so l ar radiation equation is where: H sx,i q 1 solar constant= 1377, J/m 2/sec. s e 1 orbital eccentricity = 0.0167238, dimen sionless. ei 1 earth orbit position about the sun, radians. f 1 site latitude for day i , radians. 6i 1 sun declination for day 1, radians. h 1 sunrise/sunset hour angle for day i, radians. s,f ( H 1 average daily extra-terrestrial solar radiation for day 1, sx,i J/m2/sec. ) . The extra-terrestrial solar radiation may be averaged over any time period according to where: N = [ I H i]/[N-n + 1] i=n sx, H ! extra-terrestrial solar radiation for day i, J/m 2 /sec. sx,i N! last day in t im e period, Julian days. n 1 first day in time period, Julian days. :day counter, Juli a n days. extra-terrestrial solar radiation averaged over time period n to N, J/m 2 /sec. ,, ( ) The earth orbit position and sun declination as a fun ction of the day of year are ( ) 61 = 0.40928 cos [(2~/365) (172-01)] ( ) where: 01 ! day of year, Julian days; 0 1=1 for January 1 and Oi=365 for December 31 . ~ /~~. e1 ! earth .orbit position for day 1r, Julian days.) tZ' 6i 1 sun declination for day f, Julian days. The sunrise/sunset hour angle is a measure of time, expressed as an angle, between solar noon and sunrise/sunset. Solar noon fs when the sun fs at its zenith. The time from sunrise to noon f s equa 1 to the time from noon to sunset only for symeterical topographic situations. However, for simplicity, this model will assume that an average of the solar attitudes at sunrise/ sunset is used. Therefore, the sunrise/sunset hour angle is h s, i ( ) N hs = [ t hs,i]/(N-n + 1] i=n ( ) where: f 1 s ite latitude, rad i ans. 61 ! sun declination for day f, radians. as ! average solar altitude at sunrise/sunset, radians; a = 0 for flat terrian, as > 0 for hilly or canyon terrian~ 26 ,, 9- ') 0 0 , ,, LEVEL PLANE ON E ARTH'S SURFACE s figure 2.1. Solar angultr aeasure.ents. LATITUDE EQUATOR h :sunrise/sunset hour angle for day i, radians S 1 i n ! average sunrise/sunset hour angle over the time period n to N, radians. first day of time pe ri od, Julian days. N 5 last day of time period, Julian days. 5 day counter, Julian days. I t is possible for t e sun to be completely shaded during winte r months at some sites. This i s why snow me~ts last on the north slopes of hillsides. Therefore, certain restrictions are imposed on c 5 ; i.e., cs s (w/2)-f + 61 . The average solar atti ude at sunrise/sunset is a measure of the obstruc-' . tion of topographic feature s. It is determined by measuring the average angle from the horizon to the point where the sun rises and sets. Therefore, the resulting prediction of extra-terrestrial solar radiation includes only the solar rad i ation between the estimated actual hours of sunrise and sunset. SUNRISE TO SUNSET DURATION The sunrise to sunset duration at a specific s ite i s a function of l atitude, time of year,_ and topographic features. It can be computed directly from the sunrise/suuset hour angle h .. The average sunrise to sunset duration Sl over the time period n toN is ..... ·-~ · .... .-.... \,/'? ~ ( ) / \ 27 where: S 0 : average sunrise to sunset duration at the specific site over the time period n to N, hours. hs 1 average sunrise/sunset hour angle over the time period n to N, radians. ATMOSPHERIC CORRECTION The extra-terrestrial solar radiation is attenuated on its path through the atmosphere by scattering and absorbtion when encountering gas molecules, water vapor, and dust particles. Furthermore, radiation is reflected from the ground back into the sky where it is again scattered and reflected back again to the ground. The attenuation of solar radiation due to the atmosphere can be approxi- mated by Beer's law where: ( ) Hsx -average daily e t ra-terrestrial solar radiation; J/m:/sec. : average daily solar radiation corrected for atmosphere only, J/m:/sec. ~ : absorbtion coe f ficient, 1/m. z : path length, m. While Beer's law is valid on ly for monochromatic radiation, it is useful to predict the form of and significant variables for the atmospheric correction equation. Repeated use of Beer's law and recognition of the importance of the 28 optical air mass (path length), atmospheric moisture content (water vapor), dust particles, and ground reflectivity results in a useful emperical atmos- pheric correction approximation. where: e-z =[a" • (l-a'-d)/2]/[1-R (1-a'+d)/2] ( ) g a' ! mean atmospheric transmission coefficient for dust free moist air after scattering only, dimensionless. a" 1 mean distance transmission coefficient for dust free moist air after scattering and absorbiton; dimensionless. d : total depletion coefficient of the direct solar radiation by scattering and absorbtion due to dust, dimensionless. R 1 total reflectivity of the ground in the vicinity of the g site, dimensionless. The two transmission coefficients may be calculated by a' = exp {-(0.465 • 0.134 w] [0.129 + 0.171 exp (-0.880 mp)] mp} ( ) a"= exp {-[0.465 + 0.134 w] [0.179 • 0.421 exp (-0.721 mp)] mp} ( ) where: w : precipitable water content, em. mp -optical ~.ir mass, dimensionless. The precipitable water content, w, of the atmosphere can be obtained using the following pair of formulas. T T (1.0640 d)/(Td+273.16) = (Rh1.0640 a)/(Ta+273.16) ( ) w = 0.85 exp (0.110 + 0.0614 Td) ( ) 29 where: T -average daily air temperature, C. a Rh = relative humidity, dimensio~less. Td -mean dew point, C. w : precipitable water content, em. The optical air mass is the measure of both the path length and absorb- tion coefficient of a dust-frl'e dry atmosphere .. It is a function of the sit& elevation and instantaneous solar altitude. The solar altitude varies accord- ing to the latitude of the site, time of year, and t~me of day. For practical application, the optical air mass can be time-averaged over the same t ime period as the extra-terrestrial solar radiation. The solar alti t ude f nction is where: ai = arcsin ((sin~ si n61] + (cos8 (cos~ coscS i)]} N h -( t (( J s ,i dh)/h i]}/[N-n + 1] a = ai i=n c s. ~ = site latitude, radians. 61 : sun declination on day i, radians. h : instantaneous hour angle, radians. h 1 s unrise/sunset hour angle for day i, radians. s. i n; first day in time period, Julian days. N ; last day in time period, Julian days. 1 day counter, Julian days . a 1 1 instantaneous solar al t t ude during day i, radians. ( ) ( ) a = average solar altitude over time period n to N, radians . .,,. Equation A14 can be solved by numerical integration to obtain a precise solution. However, if the time periods do not exceed a month, a reasonable approximation to the solution is N - ~ 2 ( I ~1 ]/(N-n + 1] 1=n where: ~i i average solar altitude during day i, radians. remaining parameters as previously defined. The corresponding optical air mass is where: m = {((288-0.0065Z)/238]5 ·256 }/{sin ; p + 0 .15((180/v) ; + 3.885]-1·253 } Z: site elevation above mean sea 1evel, m. ~ 1 average solar altitude for t im e peri od n to N, radians. mp : average optical air mass, dimens i onles s . ( ) ( ) The · d u st coefficient d and the ground reflectiv ity Rg may be estimated from Tables A1 and A2 respectively or they can be c a librated to published solar radiation data (Cinquemani et. al, 1978 ) a ft er cl ou d cover corrections have been made. 31 Table A1. Oust coefficient d.1 Season Washington, DC Madison, Wisconsin m =1 p m =2 p m =1 p m =2 p Winter 0.13 0.08 Spring 0.09 0.13 0.06 0.10 Summer 0.08 0.10 0.05 0.07 Fall 0.06 0.11 0.07 0.08 1 Tennessee Valley Authority 1972, page 2.15. Table A2. Gr ound reflectivity Rg.1 Ground condition Meadows and fields Leave and needle forest Dark, extended mixed forest Heath Flat ground, grass covered Flat ground, rock Sand Vegetation early summer leaves with high water content Vegetation late summe~eaves with low water content Fresn snow Old snow 1 Tennesee Valley Authority 1972, page 2.15 . .,., Li nco 1 n, Nebraska m =1 p m =2 p 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.06 Rg 0.14 0.07 -0.09 0.045 0.10 0.25 -0.33 0.12 -0.15 0.18 0 .1 9 0.29 0.83 0.42 -0.70 Seasonal variatio ns appear to occur in both d and Rg. Such seasonal variations can be predicted resulting in reasonable estimates of ground solar radiation. The dust coefficient d of the atmosphere can be seasonally distributed by the following empirical relationship. where: d 1 : minimum dust coefficient occurring in late July -early August, dimensionless. ( ) dz i maximum dust coefficient occurring in late January -early February, dimensionless. Di :day of year, Julian days; Di=1 for Janua ry 1 and Di=365 for December 31 . The ground reflectivity Rg can be seasonally distributed by the following empi r ical relationship. where: R -minimum ground reflectivity occurring in mid-September, g 1 dimensionle s . R gz -maximum gr ound reflectivity occurring in mid-March, dimens i onless. -day of year, Julian days; Di=l for January 1 and 01=365 for December 31. ( ) The average minimum-maximum val ue for both the dust coefficient and ground reflectivities can be calibrated to actual recorded solar radiation data. Summaries of recorded solar radiation can be found in Cinquemani, et al. 1978 . 13 CLOUD COVER CORRECTION Cloud cover significantly reduces direct solar radiation and somewhat reduces diffused solar radiation. The preferred measure of the effect of cloud cover is the "percent possible sunshine" recorded value (S/S 0 ) as published by NOAA. It is a direct measurement of solar radiation duration. ( ) where: H59 1 daily solar radiation at ground level. Hsa i solar radiation corrected for atmosphere only. S 1 actual sunshine duration on a cloudy day. S0 1 sunrise to sunset duration at :he specific site. If direct S/S 0 values are not available, then S/S 0 can be obtained from estimates of cloud cover C1 . SIS = 1-C 513 0 t ( ) where : C1 -cloud cover , dimensio nless. DIURNAL SOLAR RADIATION Obviously, the solar radiation intensity varies throug hout the 24-hour daily per i od. It is zero at ni ght, increases from zero at sunrise to a maximum at noon, and decreases to zero at sunset. This diurnal variation c n be approximated by: where: Hnite = 0 Hnite 1 average nighttime solar radiation, J/m 2 /sec. Hd 1 average daytime solar radiation, J/m 2 /sec. ay Hsg 1 averag~ daily solar radiation at ground level, J/m 2 /sec. h5 1 average sunrise/sunset hour angle over the time period n to N, radians. SOLAR RADIATION PENETRATING WATER ( ) ( ) Solar or shortwave radiation can be reflected from a water surface. The relative amount of solar radiation reflected (Rt) is a function of the solar angle and the proportion of direct to diffused shortwave radiation. The average solar angle a is a measure of the angle and the percent possible sunshine S/S 0 reflects the direct-diffused proportions. where: B(S/S ) Rt .= A(S/S 0 ) [c(l80/~)] 0 0 s Rt s 0.99 ( ) Rt -solar-water reflectivity coefficient, dimensionless. a ! average solar altitude, radians. A(S/S 0 ) 1 coefficient as a function of S/S 0 . B(S/S 0 ) 1 coefficient as a function of S/S 0 . S/S 0 : percent possible sunshine, dimensionless. 35 Both A(S/S 0 ) and B(S/S 0 ) are based on values given in Table 2.4 Tennessee Valley Authority, 1972. The following average high and low cloud values were selected from this table to fit the curves. where: c, 0 0.2 1 S/S 0 1 0.932 0 A 1.18 2.20 0.33 A' = dA/dC and B' = dB/dC r. r. A' 0 B -0.77 -0.97 -0.45 B' 0 The resulting curves are: A(S/S 0 ) = [a, + a 1 (S/S 0 ) + az (S/S 0 )z]/[1 + a,(S/S0 )] ( 1 B(S/S 0 ) = [b 0 + b1 (S/S 0 ) + bz (S/S 0 )z]/[1 + b, (S/S 0 )] ( ) where: ao = 0.3300 b0 = -0.4500 a1 = 1.8343 b1 = -0.1593 az = -z .1528 bz = 0.59 86 a, = -0.9902 b, = -0.9862 The amo unt of solar radiation actually penetrating an un haded water surface is: where: H = (1-R ) H sw t sg Hsw J daily solar radiation entering water, J/m 1 /sec Rt 1 solar-water reflectivity, dimensionless Hsg 1 daily solar radiation at ground level, J/m 1 /sec 36 ( ) SOLAR SHADE The solar shade factor is a combination of topographic and riparian vegetation shading. It is a modifaction and extension of Quigley's (1981) work. It distinguishes between topographic and riparian vegetation shading, and does so for each side of the stream. It was modified to include the intensity of the solar radiation throughout the entire day and is completely consistent with the heat flux components used with the water temperature model. Topographic shade dominates the shading effects because it determines the local time of sunrise and sunset. Riparian vegetation is mportan for shading between local su nr ise and sunset only if it casts a shadow on the water surface. Topographic shade is a function of the: (1) time of year, (2) stream reach latitutde, (3) general stream reach azimuth, and (4) topographic altitude an g 1 e. The ri pari an vegetation is a function of the topographic shade p 1 us the riparian vegetation parameters of : (1) height of vegetation, (2) crown measurement, ( 3) vegetation off set, an ( 4 ) vegetation density. The mode 1 allows for different conditions on opposite sides of the stream. The time of the year (D 1 ) and stream reach latitude (~) parameters were explained as a pa r t of the solar radiation section. The remaining shade parameters are peculiar to determination of the shading effects. 37 The general stream reach azimuth (Ar) is a measure of t he average depa r - ture angle of the stream reach from a north-south ( N-S) reference 1 i ne when looking south. For streams oriented N-S, the azimuth is 0°; streams oriented NW-SE, the azimuth is less than 0°; and streams oriented NE-SW, the azimuth is greater than 0°. Therefore, all stream reach azimuth angles are bounded between -90° and +90°. The east side of the strelm is always on the left-hand side because the azimuth is always measured looking south for streams located in the north latitudes. Note that an E-W oriented stream dictates the east or left-hand side by whether the azimuth is a -90° (left-hand is the north side) or +~0° (left-hand is the south side). The topographic altitude angle (at) is the vertical angle from a level line at the streambank to the general top of the local terrian when looking 90° from the general str eam reach azimuth. There are two altitude angles --one for for the lef~-hand and one for the right-hand sides. The altitude is 0 for level plain topography; at> 0 for hilly or canyon terrian. The altitudes for pposite sides of the stream are not necessarily identical. Sometimes streams tend t o one side of a valley or may be flowing past a bluff line. The height of vegetation (V~) is the average maximum existing or proposed height of the overstory riparian vegetation above the water surface. If the height of vegetation changes dramatically--e.g., due to a change in type of vegetation --then sudividing the reach into smaller subreaches may be warranted. 38 ---- At J---SOUTH ---------------------- -------- Figure 2 .2. local solar and strea• orientation angular uure.ants . Crow n measurement (Vc) i s a funct i on of the crown d i ameter and accounts f or over ha ng . Crown measuremen for hardwoods 1 s the crown diamete r , soft- woods i s t he crown radius . Vegetat i on offset (V 0 ) is the average distance of the tree tru nks from th e waters edge . Together with crown measurement, the net overhang is deter- mi ned . Th i s net overhang, (V/2) -V 0 , must always be equal to or greater than zero . Vegetat i on dens i ty (Vd) i s a measure of the screening of sunlight that woul d oterhwise pass t hru the shaded area determined by the riparian vege~a­ t i on. I t accounts for both the continuity of ri pari an vegetation a 1 ong the stream ba nk and the fil t ering effect of leaves and stands of t rees along the stream. For example , if on l y 50% of the left side of the stream has riparian vegetation (trees) and if t hose trees actually screen only 50: of the sunlight, then the vegetation density for the le f t-hand (east side) is 0 .25 . Vd must a l ways be be ween 0 and 1. The solar shade model al l ows for separate topographic a l titudes and r i parian vegetation parameters for both the eas t (left-hand) and west (right- hand) side s of the stream . The solar shade model i s calculated in two steps . First the topographic shade i s determined according to the local sunrise and sun set tim es f or the spec ifi ed time of y ear. Then the r i parian shade i s calculated between the l oca l sunr i se and su nset times. 7Q . ) ' Vc = d i ameter, hardwoods = radius, softwoods Vd = ratio of shortwave radiation eliminated t lnco lng over entire reach shaded area f1gure 2.3. R1par1an vegetat1on shade para.eters. Topographic shade is defined as the ratio of that portion of so l ar radia- tion excluded between level-plain and local sunrise/sunset to the solar radi a- tion between level-p l ain sunrise and sunset. Riparian vegetation shade is defined as the ratio for that portion of th solar radiation over the water surface intercepted by the vegetation between 1 oca 1 sunrise and sunset to the solar radiation between 1 eve 1-p 1 a in sunrise an d sunset. The following math models are based upon the previous rationals. There are five groupings of these models: (1) level-plain sunrise/sunset hour angle and azimuth (h and A ), (2) local sunrise/sunset altitude (~sr and ~.,5'), s so - (3) topograp .. ic sh cde (St), (4) riparian vegetation shade (Sv), and (5) total solar shade (Sh). The order is suggested for direct solutions. Indicator function notation, I(•], is used. If the relationship shown within the brackets are true, the value of the indicator function is 1; if false, the value is 0. Definitions for each variable is given after the last groupting of math models. The global conditions of latitude and time of year determine the rel at ive ~ovements of the sun which affect all subsequent ca l culations. They were explained in the solar radiation section. The time of year directly determines the solar decl in ation, which is the starting point for the following math models. 40 LEVEL-PLAIN SUNRI SE/SUNSE T HOUR ANG LE AND AZIM UTH The leve l -plain sunrise/sunset gr • p of math models are to determ in e t he hour ang l e and corresponding solar azimuth a su nrise and sunset. The solar movements are symetrical about solar noon; i .e., the absolute val ues of the sunri se nd su set parameters are identical, they differ only in sign. The math model is: 5 = 0.40928 cos[(Z~/365) (172 - 01 )] hs = arccos [-(sin • sin 5)/(cos • cos 5)] Aso =\arcsin (cos 5 sin h ) \ ~ f, ¢ l if'-G\rC.'::\Y\ ( c...o~ &s !;~"" '-":.) \ ~ ~ ~ The level-plain sunrise hou r angle is equal to -hs; the sunset hour angle is hs . The hour angles are referenced to solar noon (h = 0). Therefore, the duration from sunrise to solar noon is the same as from solar noon to sunset. One hour of time is equal to 15° of hour angle. The solar azimuth at sunrise is -As 0 ; the sunset azimuth is Aso· Azimu t hs are referenced from the north-south line looking south for streams located in the north latitudes. LOCAL SUNRISE/SUNSET ALTITUDES Local sunrise and sunset is a function of the local topography as well as t~e glo t al conditions . Furthermore, the local terrain may not be identical on oppos ite sides of ~he stream . Al so, some streams are oriented such that the 41 sun may r ~se and set on the same side of the stream during part or even all of the year. The following local sunrise/sunset models prope r ly accoun1: for the relative location of the sun with respect to each side of the stream. The model for the local sunrise is: atr = ate I[-Aso s Ar] + atw I[As o > Ar] hsr = -arccos {(sin asr -(sin .J~ sin 6)]~:cos ; cos 6]} Asr = -arcsin [cos 6 sin hsr)/[cos asr)] asr =arctan [(tan atr) (siniAsr-Arl)] but, sin asr s (sin ; sin 6) + (cos ; cos 6) The model for the local sunset is: ats = ate I[Aso s Ar] + atw I[Aso > Ar] hss = arccos {[sin ass -(sin ~.sin 6)]/[cos; cos 6]} ."· .. , I • • Ass = arcsin [cos 6 sin hss~/(cos ass)] ass = arctan [(tan a s s) (siniAss -Arl)] but, sin ass s (sin ; sin 6) + (cos ; cos 6) The reason for the restriction on the sin asr and sin ass is that the sun never raises higher in .the sky than indicated for that latitude and time of year regardless of the actual topographic altitude. For example, an E-W oriented strgam in the middle latitudes could be flowing through a deep canyon which fs casting continuous shade for a portion of the winter months. 4? TCPCGRAP~IC SHAD~ Once ~he 1evei-plain and ocal sunsrise and suns.H times are :C.nown, ~h! topographic shade can be computed direct i y in closed form . The def ini t i on fo· topographic sh ade 1eads to the following: ' = -. ... I ;.. .. s s ~~ di1 I : I -n s s .. = 1 -l [ rn -n ) (s~n 9 ' ss s:- ~in ci)] -[(sin "ss -sin (cos 0 ·:os ;) ] / iz [en, sino s<n O) • (sin n, :os • cos I) 11 RI?ARIAN VEGETATION SHADE The riparian vegetation shade requires keeping track of the shadows ccst thr~ugnout the sunl~ght time because only that portion over the water surface is of interest. The model must account for sun side of the stream and t1e length of the shadow cast over the water. The model is: 43 but, vd = v . I(A s A ] + v . i(A > A 1 ae s r aw s r· vh = vhe I[A :S Ar] + v T'"A > A ] s hw -L s r v = v ! [As s Ar] + v ![A > A ] 0 oe ow s r -a = sin 1 [(sin ~ sin 6) + (cos ~ cos 6 cos h)] A5 = sin 1 [(cos 6 sin h) I (cos a)] ;, ss s -I ).- v -I :"1.~ ~· s~n -)'"' .. -'-'I ~=~~~~::ly. so a r.~~~;i:~1 -. s = 'I r ;, ;, -·----.: ... ···= •. ·--. .:. .,. ~ .. ! (I/~ 35 ~:"' _:),_.,;_:t~ . --.... -... :)l•J jl ~3 s ~ n J L l r< h L s Si:"l 9 sin 0 ~ (sin h s ~=s 9 E~uations __ t h:--ough __ are used to determine the jth value of Vd' 3s, and a for h.= h + jdh. J sr Sixteen int~rvals, or dh = (h - h )/16 will "' ss sr • give better :han !~ jrgcision when using the ~:--apezoidal rule and better than .81~ pr2c i s ~on when using Simpson's rule for functions without discontinuities. t.4 _J c:s :) I , J ~owever, ::,e ::u~c~i on will have a discont i nu i ty if i:.he stream becomes fu l;y shaded du~ :o r i par i an vegetat i on after sunrise or before sunset. SOL~R SHADE FACiOR The so~ar shade factor is s i m ly the sum of the topographic and riparian vegetation shades. It is: S~nce the solar declinition and subsequent solar related parameters cepend upon the time of year, it will be necessary to calculate the various shade fac:ors for each day of the time period to obtain :he average factor for .. the time ~eriods . This will result in shade factors completely compatibie with the heat flux components. This is done by : (St . + I 1 OEF!NITICNS The · following definitions pertain to all the variables used in this solar sr.ace sec~io:1 : ~ -solar altitude, radians a -sr local sunrlse solar altitude, radians 45 i i i local sunset solar altitude, radians eastside topographic altitude, radians sunrise side topographic altitude, radians sunset side topographic altitude, radians Cllfllflllll ~tw 1 westside topographic altitude, radians I stream reach azimuth, radians I local azimuth at tima h, radians I level-plain sunset azimuth, radians I local sunrise solar azimuth, radians I local sunset solar azimuth, radians ~ 1 . average stream width, meters n N I I -.. : stream solar shade width, meters time of year, Julian day solar declination, radians solar hour angle, radians level-plain hour sunset hour angle, radians local sunrise hour angle, radians local sunset hour angle, radians 1 day counter, Julian days 1 first day in time period, Julian days 1 last day in time period, Julian days 1 stream reach latitude, radians : total solar shade, decimal 1 topodraphic shade, decimal 1 riparian vegetation shade, decimal I riparian vegetation crown factor, meters; crown diameter for hardwoods, crown radius for soft·~oods vee ! eastside crown factor, meters vcw I westside crown factor, meters vd I riparian vegetation density factor, decimal vde I eastside density, decimal vr:t.t I westside density, decfmil vh I riparian vegetation height above water surface, meters vhe I eastside height, meters vnw I westside height, meters vo I riparian vegetation waterline offset distance, meters voc I eastside offset, meters V 1 westside offset, meters ow • METEOROLOGY There are five meteorological parameters used in the instream water temperature model: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) sunshine ratio/cloud cover, (4) wind speed, and (S) atmospheric pressure. The first four are expected as input data for a specific elevation in the basin. The meteroology model assumes adiabatic conditions to transpose the air temperature and humidity vertically throughout the basin. Atmospheric pressure is calculated directly from reach elevations. Sunshine ratio/cloud cover and wind speed is as~umed constant throughout the basin. ADIABATIC CORRECTION MODEL The atmospheric pressure for each reach can be computed with sufficient accuracy directly from the respective reach elevations~ The formula is: ' i-:lv~ .,. , ..... ~.-~ P = 1013[(288-0.00GbZ)/288]5 ·256 ( ) where: P : atmospheric pressure at elevation Z, mb. Z : average reach elevation, m. Air temperatures gen~rally decrease 2°F for every 1000 ft. increase in ele vation. Therefore, correcting for the meter1c system, the following formula is used: 48 I I I I I iii 1!1 1 00 •.• n c! 0 I I I I I I I l 0 = ' . . l. ~ ·'·""' 0 ... J ·-· ,_. ., .. 'i I I iii 1!1 ;:~ --- === .. I - ( Ae :. ( ,, (: ,_ !I ea -= 1 ... • : f-t = ....... : •. \ 4 ~ ............. ··~ '"" t-r ,...._, _____ I'--· "f : Y • .jp ... + ~ht ~ 4 h ; :: ~ (. ,. ... (?:'( -~---t. -- f r- <:t :. e.tf -Pr t2~,. = \(~.-. 9" -. ((.l. 6 K:..-i '2.: = t;.~o . r; '· ~,.,, ( \ - 0 -~ 1 8 ~, '\ 0 •1' ' ;--...-- "~fi. v v.~,, ~ (J-n--\ f 2..~ e,_ Pr -o. :78 t'f 07L. e.:/ ( \,-.)~ .~ \\ '-. ~N"Dr~~ ·.,, ~ r .~ •m\-"') ...... b2..2. e!d ,..., .-\ ..... ~ ,..... ,..... c,zz. e.-i- e ~ . 0' ~ 7 '] f~ P-"'· ~/~-' p2 P~ 'P-L --fe~ (:.8S -o.oo"S" i!.., /z.&a) (l.'&~ -o.oo6S"'i-AJ/~S8)~·' I I I I I iii 1!1 e.a •·/ f.' ~i: :: <?oo(Ec.o ~r e~} :. e."t. eu ....,..... , - I -=2. ·-L i ~ -r.. .. (.-, ·:. <2:. ... '~ ~ 2.1 ~ e .. .. ~ lo ~ 2. 71 ~ I.e-~-2-7 ~ .y lo ~-2-1~ iii 1!1 ~ I I .. I I w:' ··.;, l 'i 0 1) ~ It>!)~ ~:J \) . i l I i I I I I I I I 1 o.s tB~ -0 . oC(:,~ (to!") '2 -5 5 -·· . . , ~ •, .. p... ~ -, • '! ~ {' .. r -J (.',.~~" ~.,,_ .. .... C-r . ~· .. \ ......... o. ~ o.; o.s R\.. .• ,. , o+i' ~v-C o.-, 1.1) where: Ta a T0 -CT (Z-Z 0 ) T I I air temperature at elevation To 1 air temperature at elevation Z 1 aver ag elevation of reach, • Z 1 elevation of station, • 0 : ( E, C ~-o ·• c CT 1 adiabatic temperature correction coefficient a 0.00656 C/m ) Both the mean annual air temperatures and the actual air temperature for the de si red t ime period must be corrected. T e relative humidity can also be corrected for elevation assu.ing that the tota moisture content fs the same over the basin and the station. There- fore, the formula is a function of th~. original relative humidity and the two different a i r temperatures. It is based upon the ideal gas law. where: (T -T ) Rh = R0 {[1.0640 ° a ] [(Ta+273.16)/(T0 +273.16)]} ( ) Rh 1 relative humidity for temperature Ta, dimensionless·. R 1 relative humidity at station, dimensionless. 0 Ta 1 air temperature of reach ~ C. T 1 afr temperature at station, C. 0 0 s Rh s 1.0 The sunshine factor is assumed to be the same over the entire basin as over the station. There is no known way to correct the windspeed for transfer to the basin . Certainly local topographic features will influence the wfnd- speed over the water . However, the sta t ion windspeed fs, at least, an indicator of the basin win dspeed. Since the windspeed affects only the con- vecti on and evaporation heat flux components and these components have the least reliable coefficients in these models, the windspeed can be used as an important calibration parameter when actual water temperature data is avail- able. AVERAGE AFTERNOON METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS The average afternoon air temperature is greater than the daily air temperature because the maximum air temperature usually occurs during the middle of the afternoon . This model assumes that where: fax : average daytime air temperatur between noon/sunset, C. Tax :maximum air tem perature during the 24-hour period, C. ( ) Ta 1 average daily a ir temperature during the 24-hour period, C. A regression model was selected to incorporate the significant daily meteorological parameters to estimate the incremental increase of the average daytime air temperature above the daily . The resulting average daytime air temperature model is Tax = T + (a 0 + a 1 H + a 1 Rh + a, (S/S )] ( ) a sx o sc wnere: T 1 maximum air temperature, C. ax T 1 daily air temperature, C. a H 1 extra-terresterial sol a r radiation, J/m 2 /sec. sx Rh 1 relative humidity , decimal. SIS 1 percent possib l e sunshine, decimal. 0 a0 thru a, 1 regression coefficients. Some regression coefficients were determined for the "normal• meteor- ological conditions at 16 selected weather stations. These coefficients and their respective coefficient of multiple correlations R, sta~dard dev1ation of maximum air temperatures S.Tax' and probable differences 5 are given fn Table 81 . The corresponding afternoon average ~elative humidity is (T -T ) Rhx = Rn [1.0640 a ax ][(T1 x+273.16)/(Ta+273.16)] ( ) where: Rnx 1 average afternoon relative humidity, dimensionless. Rh 1 average daily relative humidity, dimensionless. Ta 1 daily air temperature, C. Tax =average afternoon air temperature, C. 51 Table 81 c c S.Tax Regression coef f icients SUtion name R 5 ao 11 lz a, Phoenix, AZ .936 0 .737 0.194 11.21 -.00581 -9.55 3.72 Santa Maria, CA .916 0.813 0.243 18.90 -.00334 -18 .85 3.18 Grand Junction, co .987 0.965 0.170 3.82 -.00147 -2.70 5.57 Washington, DC .763 0.455 0.219 6.64 -.00109 -7.72 4.85 M1u1, FL .934 0.526 0.140 29.13 -.00626 -24.23 -7.45 Dodge City, KA .888 0.313 0.107 7.25 -.00115 -5.24 4.40 Caribou, ME .903 0.708 0.226 0.87 .00313 0.09 7.86 Columbia, MO .616 0.486 0.286 4.95 -.00163 -2.49 4.54 Great Fa 11 s, MT .963 1.220 0.244 9.89 .00274 -9.56 1.71 Omaha (North), NE .857 0.487 0.187 9.62 -.00279 -9.49 6.32 Bismark., NO .918 1.120 0.332 11.39 -.00052 -13.03 5.97 Charleston, SC .934 0.637 0.170 9.06 -.00325 -8.79 7.42 Nashville, TN .963 0.581 0.117 5.12 -.00418 -4.55 9.47 Brownsville , TX .968 0.263 0.049 9.34 -.00443 -4.28 0 .}2 Seattle, WA .985 1.180 0.153 -9.16 .00824 12.79 3.86 Madison, WI .954 0.650 0.145 1.11 .00219 1.80 3.96 ALL .867 1.276 0.431 6.64 -.00088 -5.27 4.86 52 HEAT FLUX THERMAL PROCESSES There are five basic thermal processes recognized by the heat flux rela- tionships: (l) radiati~, (2) evaporation, (3) convection, (4) conduction, &nd (5) the conversion from other energy forms to heat. THERMAL SOURCES The various relationships for the individual heat fluxes will be discussed here. Each is considered mutually exclusive 1nd when added together account for the heat budget for 1 single column of water. A heat budget analysis would be applicable for a station&ry tank of continuously mixed body of water. However, the transport model 1s necessary to account for the spatial location of the column of water at any point in time. RADIATION Radiation 1s an electomagnetic mechanism, which allows energy to be transported at the speed of light through regions of space that are devoid of matter. The physical phenomena causing radiation 1s sufficiently well- understood to provide very dependable source-component models. Radiation mode 1 s have been theoret 1 ca lly derived from both thermodynamics and quantum 53 '" '.) ;"J ALSO: (I) HEAT LOS DUE T EVAPOO ATI (2) HEAT OAIH DUE TO flUID FRICTION (3) ttEAT EXCitAHOE DUE TO AIR CIRCULATION (COI.VE C TIOH I A TMOSPtiERIC RADIA liON STREAMBED CONDUCTION ftgure 2.4. Heat flux sources. ··o··'''/,~ -: . . _.. -·/ ,. /,''·"' CONfiDIIIIAl ~~ phy s i c s and ha ve been e xp er im en t a ll y ve ri fied with a h~gh degree of pr ec is i on an d r e li ab il ty . I t pr ov i de s th e most depen dab l e components of th e he at flux I I I I s ubmodel and, f ortunate l y, is a l so the most i mportant sour ce of hea t exc hange. So l ar, back. radia t ion fr om the wate r, atmospheric , riparian ve ge tat i on , and topograp hi c features are the major sources of rad i at i on heat flux. There is an i nter-act i on between these va r ious sources; e.g ., r iparian vegetati on sc r eens bot h solar and atmospheric radiation whi1e replacing it with its own. SO L)q RADIATION CORRECTED FOR SHADING The solar radiation penetrating the water must be further modi fi ed by t he local s hading due to riparian vegetation, etc. The resulting model is: where : • H = (1-S ) H s h sw ( ) sh -solar shade factor, decimal. H -avera ge da i ly solar radiatio n entering unshaded water , J /m%/s ec. sw Hs -average dai ly o lar radiation entering shaded water, ~/ml /sec. ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION The atmosphere emits longwave rad i at i on (heat). There are five factors J affecting t he amount of 1 ongwave rad i at i on entering the w ter: (1) the air temperature i s the pr i mary fac~or; (2) the atmos pheric vapor pressure affect s t he em i ss i vity ; (3) t he c l oud cover converts the shortwave so l ar radiation I r,h in t o additiona l longwave radiation, sort of "hot spots 11 in the atmosphere; (4) t he reflection of longwave radiation at the water-air interface; and I I I (5) the interception of longwave rad ia tion by vegetative canopy cover or shading. An equation which approximates longwave atmospheric radiation enter- ing the water is: where: c, = [1-(S/S 0 )~15 = cloud cover, decimal S/S 0 -sunshine ratio, decimal k i type of cloud cover factor, 0.04 s k s 0.24 ta = atmospheric emissivity, decimal sa -atmospheric shade factor, decimal rt -longwave radiation reflection, decimal T -air temperature, C a a = 5.672•10-, J/m 1 /sec/K~ : Stefen-Boltzman constant. The preferred estimate oft is: a ta = a+b lea, decimal a = 0.61 b = 0.05 /'•a ·• vapor pressure ... -~:c;60(!.0640) T •]. mb I I I I I I •. ~-);c.,)··.,.. -t.·r::.., . ' ( - ' \ -' ' I = HuM•'-': ~J~l£:.~ • 1 \.:>o~ ··"DI) ·(I--vT I (,A.,~tJ ... ?.7--: .. ~)) ~~ : -, A If(_~ -'DI O .O ~bS'S.· (G'LE.V -t..LE.VP) \-4 l)t'\ I 0 :. 0 . I ' '- .,--P<\ (L ~ 2 \ . c, ( .. .. I I I I I ~ I I An alter nate estimate of ta is: The preferred estimate accounts for water vapor which also absorbs so l ar radiation which, in turn, is converted into lon gwave radiation. If the absorbtion of solar is overpredicted, then some o the overprediction is returned as longwave and vice versa. Therefore, errors in one (solar) tend to be compensated by the other (atmospheric). The alternate form is mentioned in the literature as a simpler model and possibly a better predictor of longwave radiation alone. However, for purpose of predicting water temperatures, ·it ultimately makes little difference as to the form of radiation (short or ~ . longwave) as long as the total heat exchange is accurately predicted. The alternate form i s only used when the solution technique requires simple steps. Assuming k = 0.17, r1 = 0.03, and using the preferred estimate of ta, this equation reduce s to: ( ) The ·atmospheric shade factor (Sa) is assumed to be identica l to the solar shade factor (Sh). c:-... o ~ TO POGRAPHIC FEAT URES RADIATION I I I I I I .. I I Currently, the radiation from topographic features is assumed to be included as a part of the riparian vegetation radiation. Therefore, no separate component model i s used. RIPARIAN VEGETATION RADIATION The riparian vegetation intercepts all other forms of radiation and radiates its own. Essentially it totally eliminates the estimated shade amount of solar, but replaces the other longwave sources with its own lorrgwave source. The difference is mostly in the emissivity between the different longwave sources. The model is: ( where: tv -vegetation emissivity = 0.9526 de ci mal a -Stefan-Boltzman constant= 5.672·10-. J/m:/sec/K .. H ! riparian vegetation radiation, J/m:sec v s ! riparian vegetation shade factor , decimal v T ! riparian vegetation temperature, assumed to be the ambient a air temperature, C The r i parian vegetation shade factor (Sv) is assumed to be identical to the solar shade factor (Sh) . .JI I I I I WATER RADIATION The water emits radiation and t his is the major balancing heat fl ux which prevents the water temperat ure f rom in c r easing without bounds. The mode l i s: A H = £ o(T +273.16)~ w w w ( ) where: "' radiation, J/~z/sec Hw -water T :: w water temperature, c t w ! water emissivity= 0.9526 decimal o -Stefan-Boltzman constant = 5.672•10-, J/mz/sec/K~ A first-or der approximation to equation A36 with less than ± 1 .8% error of predicted radiation for OC s T s 40C is: w where: " Hw = 300 + 5.500 Tw I' H -approximate water radiation, J/mz/s ec w T -water temperature, C w STREAM EVAPORATION ( ) Evaporation, and its counterpart condensa t on, requires an exchange of I heat. The isothermal (same temperature) conversion of liquid water t o va por 1 requires a known fixed amount of heat energy ca l led the heat of vaporizat i on . Conversely, condensat i on releases the same amount of heat . The rate of evapora- ~ t1on --the amount of liquid water converted to vapor--is a function of both I I 58 I I I I ~ the c ircu lation and vapor pressure (relative humidity) of the surrou ndi ng a ir. If the surrounding air were at 100% relative humidity, no evaporation would occur. If there were no circ ulation of air, then the air immediately above the water surface would qui cK ly become saturated and no further net evaporat ion would occur. Evaporation, while second i n importance to radiation, is a s i gnificant form of heat exchange. Most a vailable models are derived from lake environ-• ments and are probably the least reliable of the thermal processes modeled. However, one model was derived from a single set of open channel flow data. Both model types are offered. They differ only in the wind function used. The wind function for the flow-type model was adjusted by approximately 3/4 'to better match recorded fiel data . Two ev ap oration models are available. They differ only in the wind function assumed. The first is the simplest. It was obtained la r gely from lake data, and is used only for small hand held calculator solutions tech- niques . The second is the preferred. It was obtained from open channel flow data, and is used for all but the simplest solutions technique. The 1ake-type model is: T He= (26.0Wa)[Rh(l.0640) a T ( 1. 0640) w] ( ) I I I The flow-type model is: T T He= (40.0 + 15.0Wa)[Rh(l.0640) a -(1.0640) w] ( ) where: He i evaporation heat flux, J/m 1 /sec wa = wind speed, m/sec Rh -relative humidity, decimal Ta i air temperature, c Tw -water temperature, c CONVECTION Convection can be an important source of he at exchange at the air-water interface. Air is a poor conductor, but the ability of the surrounding air to circulate, either under forced conditions from winds or freely due to t emp er- ature differences, constantly exchanges the a~r at the air-water interface. Convection affects the r ate of evaporation and, the re fore, the model s are re 1 a ted. But the actua 1 heat exchange due to the two different sources are mutually exclus i ve. Convection is not quite as important a s eva poration as a source of heat flux but is still significant. The available models suffer from the same defects since both use the same circulation model. The heat exchange at the air-wa t er int e rface is due mainly to convection of the air. Air is a poor conductor, but the ability of the atmosphere to convect freely constantly exchanges the air at the air-water interface. The current mode ls are l argely based upon l ake models but will be used here. The 50 . u ~ convection model is based upon the evaporation model using what is called the 6owen ratio; i.e. I I I • Bowen ratio= Bf P(Tw-Ta)/(es-ea) ( ) where: p -atmosphe r ic pressure, mb T -water temperature, c w T ! air temperature, c a es i saturation vapor pressure, mb ea 5 air vapor pressure, mb Bf -Bowen ratio factor Air convection heat exchange is approximated by the product of the Bow~n ratio and the evaporation heat exchange: where: He -air convection heat flux, J/m 1 /sec R : Bowen ratio, decimal He -evaporated heat flux, J/m 1 /sec ( ) Since the air convection heat flux is a function of the evaporation heat flux, two models are offered. The first, the simplest, is a lake-type model. The second, the preferred, is a flow-type model. The lake-type model is: ( ) 61 I I I The flow-t y pe model is : He= (3 .75•10-, + 1.40•10-3 W) P(T -T ) ( ) a w a where : He = air convect i on heat flux, J/m 2 /sec wa -wind speed, m/sec p = atmospher i c pressure, mb T = water temperature, c w Ta :: air temperature, c STREAMBED CONDUCTION . Conduction occurs when a temperature gradient a temperature difference between two po i nts --exists in a material medium in which there is molecu l ar contact. The on 1 y important conduct; on eat flux component is throug h the streambed . The thermal processes are r easonably well-understood although some of the necessary data may not be easily obtained without certain assump t ions . I However, the importance of this component, while not negilible, does allow fo r some li berties and suitable predictions can be made for most applications. Streambed conduction is a function of the difference in t emperature of the streambed at the water-streambed interface and the streambed at an equ i l i b- rium ground temperature at some depth be 1 ow the streambed e 1 evat ion, this equilibrium depth, and the thermal condu c t i vity of the streambed mater i al. The e Jation i s : ( ) 62 I I where : H = conduction heat flux , J/m~/sec d Kg-thermal conductivity of the streambed material, J/m/sec/C Tg - T = w streambed equilibrium temperature, C streambed temperature at the water-streambed interface, assumed to to be the wate r temperature, C AZg-equilibrium depth from th ·~ water-streambed interface, m Kg = 1.65 J/m/sec/C for water-saturated sands and gravel mixtures (Plukowskf~ 1970) STREAM FRICTION Heat is generated by fluid frictifln, either as work done on the boundaries . I or as internal fluid shear, as the water flows downstream. That portion of the potential energy (elevation) of the flowing water that is not converted to other uses (e.g., hydroelectric generation) is converted to heat. When ambient co nditions are below freezing and the water in a stream is still flowing, part of the reason may be due to this generation of heat due to friction. The I available model is straight-forward , simple to use, and solidly justified by basic physics. However, fluid friction is the least significant source of heat flux, but it can be noticeable for steep mountain streams. The stream friction model is: where: Hf : fluid friction heat flux, J/m 1 /sec sf -rate of heat energy conversion, generally the stream gradient, m/m. 63 ( ) I I I I I I I I I I I I . I .... . r_ :. r-.. 'I \c.--. "" .. :: c r-I . L I -r--. .. '-\ "" ... ... :::-.. , \:. . :... ) ... • I I , I I I I I I ., I Q : discharge, ems. B : average top width, m NET HEAT FLUX The various heat flux components, when added together, form the net heat flux equation, i.e., H = H + H + Hd + H + H + H - H n a c e ·s v w where: Ha, etc. are as previously defi~ed Hn 1 net heat flux ( ) When the equations for the separate components are substituted into equation 01, it can be reduced to: where: T Hn = A(Tw+273.16)• + BTw + C (1.0640) w-0 B = (Cr • Ce P) + (K9/AZg) C = (40 .0 + 15.0Wa) 0 = Ha + Hf + Hs + Hv + (Cr • Ce PTa) + C = I + bW + C 1-w-e a a Cr = Bf/6.60 64 ( ) I I I I I I The equilibrium water temperature Te is defined to be the wa t er tempera- ture when the net heat flux is zero for a constant set of input parameter ; i . e. , T A(Te+273.16)• + BTe + C (1.0640) e-0 = 0 where: A, 8, C, and 0 are as define~ above. ( ) The solution of equation 03 forTe, given A,.B, C, and 0, is the equilib- rium water temperature of the stream for a fixed set of meterologic, hydro- logic, and stream geometry conditions. A physical analology 1s that as a constant discharge of water flows downstream in a prismatic stream reach under a constant set of meterolog1c conditions, then the water temperature w"ll asymptoti~ally approach the equilibrium water temperature regardless of the initial water temperature. The first order thermal exchange coefficient K1 is the firs~ derivative of equation 02 taken at Te . T K1 = 4A(Te+273.16)2 + B + [Cln (1.0640)] (1.0640) e where : Te, A, B, and C are as defined above . • ( ) The second order therma 1 exchange coefficient is the coefficient for a second order term that collocates the actual heat flux at the initial water temperature {T 0 ) with a first-order Taylor series expansion about Te. T Ka = ([A{T 0 +Z73.16)• + BT + C(1.0640) 0 -O]-[K 1 {T -T )]l/[{T -T )1 ] ( ) o o e o e 65 ~ where: A, B, C, 0, K1 , T0 , and Teare as defi1ed before. I ' I I I .. Therefore, a first-order approximation of equation 02 with respect to the equilibrium temperature is Hn = K1 (T - T ) e w ) And a second order approximation of equation 02 with respect tc • the equilibrium temperature is ) HEAT TRANSPORT The heat transport model fs based upon the dynamic temperature -steady ~ flow equation. This equation, when expressed as an ordinary differential equation, is identical fn form to the less general steady-state equation. However, ft. is different fn how the input data 1s defined and in that the dynamic equ ;1tfon r equires tracking the mass movement of water downstream. The simultaneous use of the two identical equations with different sets of input 1s acceptable since the actual water· temperature passes through the average daily water temperature twice each day --once at night and then again during I I the day. The steady-state equation assumes that the input parameters are . constant for each 24-hour period. Therefore, the solar radiation, metero- logfcal, and hydrology parameters are 24-hour averages. It follows, then, that the predicted water temperatures are also 24-hour averages. Hence, the term "average daily!' means 24-hour averages -from midnight to midnight for each parameter. The dynamic model allows the 24-hour period to be divided into night and day times. While the solar radiation and meterological parameters are different between night and day, they are still considered constant during the cooler nighttime period and different, but still constant, during the warmer daytime p·eriod. Since it is a steady flow model, the discharges are constant over the 24-nour perf od. It can be vf~ualfzed that the water temperature would be at a minimum at sun r ise, continually rise during the day so that the average daily water I It I I I I I I I f I I I I I I ' I I temperature would occur near noon and be maximum at sunset, and begin to cool so that average daily would again occur near midnigh~ and return to 1 minimum just before sunrise where the cycle would repeat itself. The steady-state equation, with input based upon 24-hour averages, can bt used to predict the average daily water t111peratures throughout the entire stream system network. Since these average daily values actually occur near m.id-night and mid-day, the dynamic model can be used to track the column of water between mid-night and sunrise and between noon and su"~•t to determine the minimum nighttime and maximum daytime water temperature respectively. Of course, the proper solar radiation and me ·"'erological parameters reflecting night and daytime conditions must be used for the dynamic model. ihe minimum/maximum simulation requires that the upstream average daily water temperature stations at mid-night/mid-day for the respective sunrise/ sunset stations be simulated. This step 1s a simple hydraulic procedure requiring only a means to estimate the average flow depth. DYNAMIC TEMPERATURE -STEADY FLOW A control volume ;or the dynamic temperature -steady flow equation is. shown in Figure Al. It allows for lateral flow. To satisfy the fundamental laws of physics regarding conservation of mass and energy, the heat energy in the incoming waters less the heat energy in the outgoing water plus the net h•at flux across the control volume bounoaries must equal the change in heat se ,.. eQ c: ... • N . "' . CJ '< :I .. B ~ n • :I • ... ~ n 0 :I r+ ... 0 < 0 c B ,. . r t----8-·--t cp(OT)1 iiiliilii . ~ lWJ PCp(OT)0 = pcp(OT)I t PCp(8QT /Ctx)Ax • I I I I energy of the water within the control volume. The mathematical expression is: where: [(BIH) ~x]}~t = {(pcp(a(AT)/at)]~t}~x p 1 water density, M/L 1 c 1 specific heat of water, E/M/T p Q ~ discharge, L1 /t T 1 • temperature, T q1 1 lateral flow, L1 /t r, I lateral flow temperature, T X ! distance, L t I time, t A I flow area, Lt i inflow index 0 I outflow index B 1 stream top width, L IH = net heat flux across control volume, E/L 1 /t note: units are M -mass T -temperature L -length t -time E -heat energy ( ) I -I Equation A38 reduces to: ( ) J Assuming steady flow (aA/at=O), letting Hn = BtH, recognizing q1 1 aQ/ax, and dividing through by Q, leads to: < < dynamic >l <---s-t.-.aa ... d;;;;.!ly._-_s_t_a t.-e ....... e.g...,u_a t-i_o_n._ __ > term dynamic temperature -steady flow equation > ( :. ) If the dynamic temperature term is neglected (aT/at a 0), then the steady- state equation is left. Since the steady-state equation contains only· a single independent vari ble x, it converts directly into an ordinary differ- if~' · ential equation with no mathematical restrictions: I I I I I I It I I ( ) If the dynamic temperature term is not neglected (aT/at ; 0), then equa- tion A40 can still be solved using the classical mathematical technique known as the "Method of Characteristics". If, for notional purposes only, we substitute (:: ) fnto equation A40 and use the definition of the total derivative for the dependent variable T, a resulting pair of dependent simultaneous first-order partial differential equations emerge I lj I I I •• I I I I I I It I I (A/Q) (aT/at) + (1) (aT/ax) = + ( ) (dt) (aT/at) + (dx) (aT/ax) = dT ( ) Since the equations are dependent, the solution of the coefficient matrix fs zero; 1. e., [ (A/Q) dt - 1]:: 0 dx which leads to the characteri$t1c line equation, dx = (Q/A)dt For the same reason, the solution matrix is also zero; i.e., 1 ] = 0 dx which leads to the characteristic integral equation, when t fs replaced by its original terms of equation A4Z. ( ) ( ) Equation A46 is identical fn form to equation A41, and is valid for dynamic temperature conditions when solved along the characteristic line equation (equation A4 5). This presents no apecial problem since equation A45 simply tracts a column of water downstre1m --!n easily simulated task. '2 I h I ~ I I Closed-form solutions for the ordinary different i al equation forms (equations A4l and A46) of the dynamic temperature-steady flow equations are possible with two important assumptions : (1) uniform flow exists, and (Z) first and/or second order approximations of the heat flux versus water temperature relationships are valid. FIRST-ORDER SOLUTIONS First-order solutions are possible for all three cases of o1 : Case 1, q1 >0; Case Z, q1 <0; and Case 3, q1=0. The ordinary differential equation wi ~h the first-order substitution is: ( ) Since Q = Q0 + q1 x, equation 08 becomes -.'l [Q 0 + ~1 x] dT/dx = ((q 1 T1 ] + [(K 1 B)/(pcp)]Te} -(q 1 + [(K 1 W)/(pcp)]lT ( ) let, a = (q 1T1 ] + [(K 1 ~)/(pcp)]T 1 73 I Then 09 becomes I ( ) I Using separation of variables, ( ) and the solution is Case 2, q 1 < 0: If q 1 < 0, then T1 = T and equation 08 becomes ( ) The so 1 uti on fs ( ) Case 3, q1 = 0: If q1 = 0, then Q ~ Q(x) and equation 08 becomes 74 I ~ I I I I ~ I I I ( ) The solution fs ( ) SE COND-ORDER SOLUTIONS A second-order solution for ~ase 3 is as follows. Let q1 = 0 and using equation A4S results in ( ) The solution is ( ) Using the first-order solution and mak i ng second-order corrections according to the form suggested by equation Dl8 results in 75 lt where: a= (q 1T1 ] + ((K 18)/(pcp)]Te I b = q1 + (K1B)/(pcp) I Case 1. q>O: I I T = a/b e (-b/q ) I R = [1 + (qtxo/Qo)] 1 I Case 2. q<O: I T = T e • ((q -b)/q ] R = (1 + (q X /Q )] f. f. f. 0 0 p Case 3. q=O: I T = T e e I R = exp [-(bxo)/Qo] 76 -r -- w a: ::> 1- c( a: w Q. :E w 1- ::E c( w a: 1-m - ----,.,--- EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURE "--INITIAL WATER TEMPERATURE 0 LONGITUDINAL DISTANCE Figure 2 .6. Typtca 1 lony ttudtna 1 water. te•perature profile predicted by heat transport equation. TIME PERIODS The basic math model for the overall basin network. is a steacy-state I model because it assumes that the input is a constant over an indefinite period of time. Conceptually it assumes that the input conditions exist sufficiently long for the steady-state results to reach the! lowest point in I ·I I I , I I I I tne network.. If the travel time from the upstream most point to the down- stream end of the network. becomes significant compared to the time period, then the results become less reliable. If the travel time to the lowest point is 30 days, it should be recognized that the water passing this point on the first day of the 30 day period originated upstream 30 days prior. Therefore, the meterological condi- tions that determine downstream daily water temperatures on the first day are not included in the time period averages. In fact, only the last day•s water column was influenced entirely by the meterologic data used in the input for the time period. One way to overcome this prob 1 em is to redefine the time periods to smaller increments (as small as a day if necessary) and track. each day•s water column movement using the previous day•s results as the initial conditions for the current day. 7i ~ DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS The following relationships can be solved explicitly at any study site or I point of interest to determine the maximum temperature rise of the water above the average. It fs base j upon the fact that the water temperature passes I I I I I ' I I through the average values twice each day. That the average water temperature occurs approximately half way through the day. That the remainder of the day the water t emperature increases steadily to a maximl!lll close to sunset. The same logic is used for determining the minimum water temperature by subst1tu- ting nighttime conditions in lieu of daytime. where: d -average flow depth, m. n ! Man ~ing's n-value. 0 1 discharge, ems. B I average top width, m. S · I energy gradient, m/m. e tx 1 travel time from noon to sunset, sec. so 1 duration of possible sunshine from sunrise to sunset, Ted I equilibrium temperature for average daily conditions, hours. c. T i equilibrium temperature for average daytime c nditions, C. ex 78 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) I I I I I -- I I : average daily water temperature (at so l ar noon) at point of interest, C. T 0 x ! average daily water temperature at travel time distance upstream f om point of interest, C. Twx 1 average maximum daytime water temperature (at sunset) at po · nt of interest, C. Kd 1 first order thermal exchange coefficient for daily conditio1s, J/m 1 /sec/C. Kx 1 first o~er thermal exchange coefficient for daytime cond i tions , J/m 1 /sec/C. p 1 density of water= 1000 kg/m 2 • cp 1 specific heat of water = 4182 J/kg/C. Because of the symmetery assumed for the daytime conditions, it is only necessary to cal culate the difference between the maximum daytime anc average daily water temperatures to obtain the minimum water temperature. where: T wn Twx ( ) : average minimum nightime water temperature (at sunri ;e) at point of interest, C. : av!rage maximum daytime' water temperature (at sunset at point of interest, C. Twd 1 average daily water temperature (at solar noon) at pc ir•t of interest, C. 79 FLOW MIXING The equation for determining the final downstream water temperature when II flows of different temperatures and discharges met at junctions, etc. fs: II I I I I ~ I I I I I ~ where: TJ 1 water temperature below junction T8 1 water . temperature abov-junction on the mafnstem (branch node) TT 1 water temperature above junction on the tributary (terminal node of the tributary) 08 1 discharge above junction on the mainstem (branch node) Or 1 discharge above junction on the tributary (terminal node on the tributary) ( ) REGRESSION MODELS Regression modesl are commonly used to smooth data and /or fill-in missing data. They are used as a part of the instream water temperature model: first, to provide ini tial water temperatures at headwaters or point sources to start the transport mode; and second, as an independent prediction of water temperatures at interior network points for purposes of validation and calibra- tion. Obviously, regression models are only useful at the points of analysis and cannot be used in lieu of longitudinal transport. Two regression models are included in the instream water temperature model package : (1) a standard regression model, and (2) a transformed regression mode l . Each requires measured or known water temperatures as the dependent variable along with associated meteorological, hydrological, and stream geometry independent parameters. However, the standard regression model requires less detail than the transformed. The standard model i s satisfactory for most appl i cations, but the transformed version has a b~tter physica l bas i s. Th e cho i ce becomes a matter of judgement by the responsible engineer/sc i entist. STANDARD REGRESSION MODEL IFG studies during the model development have shown that the following simple linear multiple regression model provides a high de~ree of correlat i on for natural condit i ons . The model is: 1\ T = a, + a 1 T + a 1 W + a 1 Rh + a~ (S I S ) + a, H + a, Q w a a · o sx 81 where: A T 1 estimate of water temperature, C w a,-a, 1 regression coefficients Ta I air temperature, C Wa 1 wind speed, mps Rh 1 relative humidity, decimal SIS 1 sunshine rat i o, decimal 0 H 1 extra terrestrial solar radiation, J/m 2 /sec sx . Q 1 discharge, ems It is recommended that the meterologica ~ parameters and the solar radiation at the meterological station be used for each regression anal y sis. Obviously, the discharge, Q, and the de pendent variable water temperatures must ~e obtained at the point of analysis. These six independant variables are readily obtainable and are also necessary for the transport model . A minimum of seven data sets are necessary to obtain a solution . However, a greater number is desirable for statistical validity. Also, it needs to be emphasized that the resulting regression model is only valid at the point of analysis and only if upstream hydrologic condi- tions do not change. For example, if a reservoir has been constructed upstream subse quent to the data set, the model is not likely to be valid because the release temperatures have been affected. TRANSFORMED REGRESSION MODEL The best regression mode 1 would be one that not only uses the same parameters as the best phys i cal-process models; but has the same, or near l y the same, mathematical form. That 1s, the regression model equat i on uses physical-process transformed parameters as the independent variables . Thi s transformed regression model uses all of the input parameters used i n the transport model except for stream distance and init1 1 water temperatures. The f1 rst-ordtr approximation of the constant-discharge heat transport model was chosen as the b sis for the physical-process regression model. Water temperature and discharge data at the specified location together with the corresponding time period meterolog1c data from a nearby station are needed . The meteoro 1 ogi c data . is used to determine the equi 11 bri um tempera- ture (Te) and first-order thermal exchange coefficient (K 1 ). The Te and K1 are combined with the corresponding time period discharges as inde~endent variables to determine the regression coefficients for estimating the corre- sponding time period water temperature dependent variable. An estimate of the average stream width W above the site location 1s necessary as an arbitrary constant in the regression. The resulting regression coefficients are tant- amount to synthetically determining an upstream source water temperature as a function ·of time and the .distance to the source. The constant discharge heat transport model is: ( ) where: Te I equilibrium water temperature, C T, 1 initial water temperature, C Tw 1 water temperature at x0 , C K1 1 first-order thermal exchange coefficient, J/m 1 /sec/C ~ 1 average stream width, m x, 1 distance from T,, m p 1 water density • 1000 kg/mJ cp 1 specific heat of water • 4182 J/kg Q 1 discharge, ems X The definition of exp (x) • e fs ( ) If T, is a function of the time period only, then it can be approximated as r. = T. + 6T, cos[(Zw/365) (01-213)] ( ) where: T, 1 average initial water tempera tu re over all tim• periods; c 6T 1 1 half initial temperature range over all time periods; c of 1 average Julian day for fth time period; January 1 = 1 and December 31 = 365. Let, Z1 = -(Kl§)/(pcPQ) ( ) Za = -i e ( ) z, = cos [(Zw/365) (0 1 -213)] ( ) 84 If equations C2 throu gh CS are subst i tuted into equat i on Cl and the te rms rearranged, then Tw can be expressed as: Tw • T, + (6T,)Z, + (T,x,)Z 1 + (6T 1 x1 )Z 1 Z, + (x,)Z,Za + (T,1 x,lf2)Z 1 1 + (6T,x 1 /2)Z 1 1 Z, + (x,1 /2)Z 1 1 Z1 + (T,x,1 /6)Z 1 1 + (6T,x,1 /6)Z,'Z, + (x,'/6)Z 1 1 Z1 + (T,x,'/24)Z 1 ' + (6T,x,'/24)Z 1 'Z, ( ) If the converging power series is truncated after the final fourth-orde r I !"Ill and the following substitutions are made, then I possible multiple linear regression model results. Let, '• = T, a, = 6T, x, = Z, &a = T,x, X a = z, a, • 6T 0 X1 X, = z,z, It = x. X, = ZaZa '• = T,x,1 /2 x, • z,a '• = 6T,x,1 /2 X, = Z,1 Z, a, = x,1 /2 X,.= Z1 1 Z1 '• = T,x,1 /2 X, = z,, a, = 6T,x,1 /6 X, = z, 1 Z, &u = x,'/6 Xu = Z, 'Za lu = T,x,'/2 Xu = Z,' 85 a 12 a f.T,x,'/24 au = x,'/24 If the resulting independent transformed variab l es X1 , through Xu are regressed on the dependent variable Tw, then the following regression equation results The best estimates of the synethic physical-process parameters are T, = a, x, = a, 86 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Attachment 2 HEAT FLUX COMPONENTS FOR AVERAGE MAINSTEM SUSITNA CONDITIONS 4(\\) 300 1977 200 t?ZT/141 100 .1"0 8 rZZZI -ue -288 -380 -488 1970 3()0 r.z .vv.;-~~ IH7 200 rz;·/z.z-ca tOO ueo 0 E/ / LJ -IQO -298 -:S\10 -~\)\) _, ,. ... (' ATI10 SPH£RIC ". ' / · ... I '• ' J S U S IT N ~ RI VER HE ~T FLit ':·:' -'' SOLAR J UII( rRICTlOH _ CONDUCTION [Yj;PORATIO H COHPOHEHT SUSITNR RIVER HE~T FLUX JUL Y l ACK RA li 1970 1977 t?2?2?23 1911 rZZZI 1971 l'i77 rzzvm 1981 f ZZZI <4 00 300 200 108 • -tee -lit -308 -481 ATI'IOSPHEP.IC 388 - 200 ~ 180 - 0 -100 ~ -200 1- -300 ~ . l , .. i ·-( • t I ) / SU S ITNR RIV ER HE~T FLU X SOLAR Au ~u:r rRICTION -CONDUCTION EVAPORATION COI'IPONEHT SUSITNR -RIVER HERT FLUX $EPT£11BER non ' ....... -,~...~ .: JACK ltAD ~- .... · ~:. ~--. ; ........... _ ~---------------------------------------------------------------_; ~OL.wP rF':'-TICIII COMPI)II[IIT Attachment 3 WEATHER WIZARD DATA H4.:CIP. ltti/UU lltf't:AAIIK II~ 1'01111 llt.'li C I 1'\·,~ UJ'i( A\H (()&.L T~f, It£, SUSITNA HYOACEL£CTRJC PAOJECT ~r-r-~~~~~~~~~~~~-r-r-r-r-r-r-r~~~,_,-,-~~~~·5~ ·~ u sa.~ 41 AADIATID' 2a ftUIOQt ~~~~~~~~~~~uu~~_u_u~~~~~~~~~~~~~uw~~ 1 ____..J,-------~~---~ --4..-d. ___ :_ ________________________ :=J!.!!!.---- ~ VAA~!~ ~~~~iJri\J$iAt~:W~J~ Traced from R&~l Processed Climatic Data An.Afl\'£ Vol. 6 · KJ1111JY Devil Cany o n lit Station -----------------------------··-----------------------------·--------- -·-· =-·-·-·-·-·-·-·-,"'7 :-~-·-·-·-·-l;r··.-·-rrl·-·-·-r-·~·-·-·-·r·~·-·r· t,.. •• ,,,. J '·''"l 'l .. . • .. :: : :., , f. : :: ,: ~; ~ I ~;: .::: .. ~~ t: · =i . • S •· ~. : : ' I;,~~ 1 ~·\•./-•• ,,., ,:.;-, ~· ::-:" ,,..; 1 · · ~'\..._~·-•. •,~C:.O~ •J •.,',\.'·. r·• s-~ ... ~··'.•'·,••, • ...... f • I 1-; .. .;: •'• • .. ; ... -:. :.; . :• •• ~.-~., ~~ ~ >", ~-.,if~ r, .. v ::: -: •.. ':f·t'::l p: . . .. . . ., .. ·•. : ... :· ~ . : f I .. ~ '! . . . .. tl : .. •• • • : I ~ : • : !: • . • • .... • : ' ! . : I . : :~-s . ...: :: ·: • I l : !• .. ::: i: ::,· :! : 1! i 'I . :• ..• . : :'1 ··: •• ! • • . r ' \_~· • ... .. . • . r ~ .. I . . -• .• ~ · ~ : • .-:. : =r ' : -!t t ~ · = ' • I . r : : , , • • ~·'P • . . ~ ....................................... -........................................................................... l .... t ..... l .... . &JitW 9<lD I ftvSJ .. •·L-~~U-~~~~~~~~~~-'-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.._~ It DA1 CT nc tOHH MTA STUUI II .J\1£ • 1911 From R&H r ocessed Climatic Data, Vol, 5, Watana Station Figure 1 --------·-·-·----·---- AU1 CCJ&.l. TUfT • IUC. SUSllt~ H'W'LIOC£L[ClRIC ~J(CT r-~,--r-r~~~r-T-,--r-r~~~r-~,-~-r~~~r-~,-~-r~~~r-T-,-~-r~·~~ H<C.IP. lltVIICI 1on·t¥tHF£ U U fi)JUI I U.~ (I d~nt~~~~J.~~~~;.~\1~~~~ , I l'c ~ • :,· • V v: _..., v • :-~ • .. I I'' I ' I I • \... II 1 1 I I -------------~--------------------jL------~-----------L------------ . ..,. . ' : ~ : ~ I ~ . . . .. : :: I ' I" ! ;; : :: : ! . :: :: :: . :· : : :: -·-·,-·-·-··-·~· -·-·-·-· -·-·-·-·-·-·-·-·-·---··-·-·--l·-·-·1 ·-·~·-·--• t! .I ; . , ~ .• • • .. ,; .a .• ·. . • • . ! . 1-o ;. • .. ... • .. t t~·· . · :r • •. ~·;:"t~~··~ 't:i ·~;..; ~ ;··.=,-·,._ --.. -r !•..,-.-.. ..._ ... ~" .. ·.~i ~"1:'1 :t · : . .,.~ .. ~ ·"!. ·"'-~=~· .. •1 .... )~ .. •..!P .-c J.; · :i!c ;:,rf,J* ~-~ :... ..... : .. J .......... ~ •• !:.1:.-.. • ...... ~ .•.. : ............................ : ....... : .• :: ...... ~: ••• : .•••.• ! .......... :.:~ ...... a: ........ .. u. 11t•• liit~f ·~ . UIUO •;.J·HU I IIV!O I 4 · ·L-~L-L-4-~~~~~~-L-L-L-L-L-L~~ II 15 DolT~ SlMT I II tDV£1«.~ • 191i From R&H Processed Climatic Data, Vol. 5, Watana Station Figure 2 I ·f) .. u sa.t.1 ltd/CtCI An.ATI\£ tutiDITY Ill ~Utdl 1-4( Dlht:CIIOI 72 f fLC.l • Traced from R&H Processed Climatic Dat a Vol. 6 Devil Can y on Station f4-((JP, lltVUU lftU.hOHK uu f'(Jitlf ffU1 C06U.. TUfT, U£. S.USITt~ ttY~~OCL[CTRIC P~J[CJ __ _____.,-! -----r -----------~~~~~~ ....:""': ---------------------- ' ' , ~ J. r..r J ~ l,r · .. r· . .-· ··~ · v-----., .. ·~\f(tir\)11----.; ~"'V ~ IOCG Cl -~ .., rr Gl.f.il UltiJ !J'("(D ltvSI -~r-·"T ··-·-·-;·-'.··-·-·-·-·-·-·-·--·-·r-·-·---·-r·---·-·,·-·-·-·-----.;.., ___ _ l •. • .. . •.. .. . • . .. I •• .. !i . • • • • • .. • •• • . - " .~:. .~ --: r. ~ • t• : :: : ' : •-: :. 0 • ·-.:~~·~, .... ~./"·~: ;:"j ~~·;.i'r ....... ,·~·J. i' ~~·-.~-·'-t· .-'r_ • .._ ~>··,··, o':' J·: ,-~··1: :--o:--.·-·~~~.\;~-,~--?. ·~ 'I •:::,:: :•: :'t • ;:. 'I '":t : !i :::: : II • :: t :~ l:: : :: : :: . ::: ;:: :· i:: : : , . : i : ~ 'i-:· : : i ; :: · :~: ::: i ·::. ' :i ! I~ ' . I ...... :... ~; .;.~.~ !.tt 1. • .~~,.-,. ~ ... , . ·~ : .. : :·:. •. 0. ' . 20. ........................................... 1 ................ -............... -••. · .................................................... . 16 12l:, :~ .. ; ll 1"5 3a '"'" STMT: ll JlL"t ISII From R&M Processed Climatic Data, Vol. 5, Watana Station Figure 3 ~"l .:.M •a AADiftTIW a utvcu;u I I AEL.All\£ H.J11 DIT't IX t IILGI .! Traced from R&M Processed Climatic Data Vol. 6 Devil Canyon Station \ 1 I N J: u ~ 158 Q. 128 0 98 ~ 68 Q. 38 8 ~ t 58 t-38 ' 18 1 .~ -18 . -38 ··-sa I o u ..... Q i 28 16 ' 12 Q 8 z 4 .... :1: B R&H CONSULTANTS, INC. SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT WATANA WEATHER STATION August, 1981 ::l ::l ~~--~~r-~r----,--~----~~---------------,r-r-,--,. 8x 88 c 68 ~ 48 ~ 28 .... ~L-~~~--~=:~--~~~~--~~--~--~--~~~98 ~ tJ 1: 1'1 g n t---~,.~~~~~~--~~~~~r---~~--~~r-~Oi~r-~3681: 288 .... t~ 216 ~ 144 tJ 72 M ~--~~L-~------------------------~~------~----~--,8 ~ From R&M Processed Climatic Data , Vol. 5, Watana Station Figure 4 :r ' Ul 1!:.~ li:~ ff<t.JP, 9J lttVIICI U 10t'OVtTlK U u ffiltH I lA. C. •: I u • ~ » •• ... -71~ -~· 2'J It l'fl.: Cil£1 l;t UIUD '"Ji:£11 l UVSJ 4 • . ---·--·-------·-···-__.,. RU1 CO&.l..Tr.NT. IUC. Slf.oll~~ H"I'U.CLL[CHUC rtii)J(CT . . . I . i "·" I u ! £1 SCA..t.-1 ~· I -.CI AADIATI G ' I I i I : 2. lti!IOCI I I I I f-- -~ ~ ·/1 r-. liT .. ~ r":.l -1 ·I ,,., (\. (j ~~: ":ri " [~ I ., r · A -'ill lai ---1->JJI .. ~J u 'rt-_, ·~ ~ ~ .~~ ~~·-~ ~~~ r.f: .\t ~ ~ v "V N ., ..• 6.1 AD.ATI~ f--1---'-' ft. ~ 1'1 ·-= 1--~~ ~- 1--·-FV 41 •uuonv ·---. I . 1---- --:--~-· --1--... r-r----· ------·-j ·-r-·-1--r--f-f---- ~ lXI -· ~-1--.. --r---· i-----·------ -T -= - ------~-----------~---·-I -...... kk - ;,-..;,.. ., '.::: -... v· r-o: -·~r~ r-' -'" .L , ., --, -r-1---· ' i I ~--1-lE,e f--· 1-· r-·: -·-· .. . ·-·-·-·--·-] ---;--rrr-· ~ ~aa . r ' 't 1 : ~ I I ! :: . . .. ~IG UltW . . . ~ . . . -.. -.. I.C4 Dlli!CIIOU .. .. . :~. lj·· L : ~~ ::.~ "'• ~~· ~ I • ,)1 •. t •• • __ , ~.:· ... .r~ ~f:'(',; ~~.·~~!-~ .,.!, .~ ~;~ ::; 72 lf£Gl :, '.-""'l ''1.tt j" ,.,.. .... -···· ....... ~. ;..• ... r-· '.;J. ··· .. T .... lL ·······r;··· ··;r : ......... r ••• .•. u .... ... ,_ I .... ~l~ ... ;I ~ A~ - ~ :. ·~··~v\ ~~1~w ~:ri ~ ~~~~~~ .~;·-~ ~ ~P' ~~&l •• 15 -~ ~T,_ SlART I ea tOYEl'a.R • 1911 . From R&K Processed Climatic. Data, Vol. 5, Watana Station Figure 5 From Local Climatolog ical Data Summa r y for Talkeetna Nov. 1980 ' Figure 6. Monthly averaged observed relative and absolute humidity data from R&M Weather Wizzards in Susitna basin. JUNE 10 5 JULY X 10 5 AUG X 10 5 SEPT Rh p X Rh Pv Rh Pv Rh Pv X v (decimal) (kg/11 3) (decimal) (kg/11 3) (decimal) (kg/11 3) (decimal) 1 Talkeetna ~ 105 11 1980 .785 8.2 .810 10.0 .8 3 9 .0 .813 6 •. , 1981 .713 7.7 .805 9.4 .835 9.1 .785 6:' 1982 .755 8.6 .790 9.4 .820 9.4 .903 7. •) 3-year average .751 8.2 .802 9.6 .829 9.2 .834 6.~ Sherman 198.0 11 1980 1981 1982 .40 4.0 .44 4.9 .22 1. 8 .35 2 .8 3-year average .40 4.0 .44 4.9 .22 1.8 .35 2.8 Devil Canyon 457.0 11 1980 .65 7.6 .54 6.0 1981 .67 6.4 .78 7.1 .82 7.6 .66 4.2 1982 .37 3.5 .43 4.2 .35 3.5 .52 3.9 3-ye r average .52 5.0 .62 6.3 .57 5.7 .59 2.7 Watana 671.0 11 1980 .50 4 .5 .47 5.0 .71 5.0 1981 .29 2.7 .37 3.4 .26 1.6 .30 2.0 1982 3-year average .40 3.6 .42 4.2 .26 1.6 .50 3.5 Koaina Creek 792.5 • 1980 .66 5.2 .10 0. ti 1981 .51 4.3 .65 6.1 .56 5.0 .46 2. ~· 1982 .29 2.5 .35 3.4 .26 2.3 .53 3.t 3-year average .40 3.4 .so 4.8 .49 4.2 .36 2.3 1 Data from National Weather Service Local Climatological Data Summary 10 5 3 (kg/11 ) Figure 7 . Monthly averaged observed temperature <•c> from R&M Weather Wizzard. JUNE JULY AUG SEPT Talkeetna 1 105.0 m 1980 11.9 14.7 12.1 7.7 1981 12.2 13.5 12.4 7.7 1982 11.7 13.7 13.2 7.8 3-year average 11.9 14.0 12.6 7.7 Shenaan 198.0 11 1980 1981 1982 10.7 12.8 11.6 7.1 3-year average 10.7 12.8 11.6 7 .1 Devil Canyon 457.0 m 1980 13.7 12.5 1981 10.0 9.3 9.2 3.3 1982 9.9 11.7 10.8 6.0 3-year average 10.0 11.6 10.8 4.7 Watana 671.0 m 1980 9.1 11.9 4.8 1981 9.3 9.3 2.0 4.0 1982 8.6 10.8 10.0 5.0 3-year average 9.0 10.7 6.0 4.6 Koaina Creek 792.5 • 1980 6.8 3.1 1981 8.0 9.7 9.0 2.9 1982 8.4 10.4 9.1 4.4 3-year average 8.2 10.1 8.3 3.5 1 Data from National Weather Service Local Climatological Data Summary Attachment 4 DAILY INDIAN lliVD. TEMP!llATUllES VD.SUS DEVIL CANYON Alll TEMPDATUllES c. 1 H-J~-H-H-H -· l-U+~-+H-J+I.J+H-J.J+I.J+U-1+1-1-U t+t+t++++t+t+H+H-H-f Hf ll• •I 1 I . I~ l 'j I:) -r ;.;,. 0 ·~)..;,\.. r " .. (c) c,:.- '" ...